Japanese Integrated and Collaborative Research Activities on Impact
Assessment of Climate Change on Natural Hazards, Water Resources,and Ecosystems Towards Building an Adaptation StrategyEiichi Nakakita1
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
Email: nakakita@hmd.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Not long ago, there was a great deal of careful discussion on whether or not global
warming is related to extreme weather phenomena such as the large typhoons and localized
heavy rainfall that have been increasing recently. However, Japan experienced any number ofclose brushes with, and direct hits from, large typhoons and frequent occurrence of strong
winds, floods, overflowing rivers, high tides, high waves, and landslides. Concern has spreadthat these disasters may intensify as global warming progresses.
Theme D, precise impact assessments on climate change, under the program for risk
information climate change (SOUSEI program) supported by MEXT, aims to scientificallydemonstrate the connection between the aforementioned increase in natural hazards andglobal warming and to look 100 years into the future to see how serious it may become. Theresearch results are to be presented as “actual figures” and are expected to be used as data forthe government and municipalities to consider how to protect the lives of people in urban andrural areas, coastal areas, and river areas. A “100 year impact assessment” was proposed bythis program’s antecedent, KAKUSHIN, but this is the first attempt to produce an actualfigure for ”the maximum predicted amount of future rainfall.” To generate this kind of
specific figure, detailed data with a high degree of precision is required. Even with all the datathat we can collect, the sample size and precision are still inadequate. So, in Theme D, wetake on the challenge of developing an assessment model that can produce predictions evengiven the data limitations, and we endeavour to assess extreme phenomena. Broadly
speaking, there are three specific research sub-themes. They are “climate change impacts onnatural hazards,” “climate change impacts on water resources,” and “climate change impacts
on ecosystems and biodiversity.
The first sub-theme, climate change impacts on natural hazards, is handled by DPRI-KU,
together with Global Centre of Excellence for Water Hazard and Risk Management(ICHARM/PWRI). We aim to produce predictions for scenarios including worst-caseparticularly in the case of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage inJapan, concerning the frequency, scale, accompanying precipitation, strong winds, high tides,
and high waves, including during the Baiu season.
The second sub-theme, climate change impacts on water resources, is handled by DPRIKU and IIS in the University of Tokyo. When the climate changes due to global warming, therain amount and rain patterns change significantly. It is also possible that what formerly fell
as snow will change into rain. In Japan which has many mountainous regions, it is anticipatedthat this would cause a great change in the “pattern of water flowing into rivers.” So, Kyoto
University team of this group will predict and assess the changes in the flow and supply ofwater in the main rivers in Japan, the impact on rice farming, etc., and the need for flood
control such as dams, etc. Similar prediction and assessment will be pursued for the world’smajor rivers, including in Asia. The University of Tokyo team will predict and assess how theactual water cycle will change on a global scale with the addition of artificial modifications.
This team will also study the effectiveness of adaptation strategies.
The third sub-theme, climate change impacts on ecosystem and biodiversity, issupervised primarily by Graduate School of Life Sciences at Tohoku University, and other-1-

participants include Nagoya University, Hokkaido University and NIES. We aim to predict
and assess whether ecosystems are capable of changing abruptly due to global warming,taking as models the forests of northeastern Japan and the marine life in the ocean near Japan.
The Tohoku University team will conduct predictions and assessments concerning whether
global warming will cause the extinction of alpine plants, the impact of strong wind on forests,
the purification effects of forests, and changes in tourism resources. The Nagoya University
team will conduct predictions and assessments on how climate change alters forest vegetationand then whether the altered forest vegetation affects the climate. The main research sites will
be Asian rainforests and the eastern boreal Siberia. The team will study the changes in themajor forests in the world, such as the tundra forest. The team composed of Hokkaido
University and NIES focus on ocean acidification which occurs when more anthropogenic
carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater. The team will predict and assess what sorts of changes
will occur in coastal marine ecosystem such as coral reefs and seaweed forests due to global
warming and ocean acidification.
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