STUDY OF PERMAFROST-DOMINATED ECOSYSTEMS OFNORTH-EASTERN EURASIA UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF
GLOBAL WARMING AND INCREASING ANTHROPOGENICPRESS IN THE LATE XX - EARLY XXI CENTURIES

Trofim Chr. MAXIMOV, Dr.Sci., Prof.
* Federal Research Center “Yakutian Scientific Center SB RAS”,
Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone, SB RAS** Russian Society of Plant Physiologists

Strong global warming is expected in Arctic regiond(IPCC report, 2010)Changing of winter temperature, 1965-2014

Air temperature trends (°С for 10 year), 1978-2015 гг.
аcbda -winter; b - spring; c- summer; d- autumn; e- yeare<-0.4-0.4 – -0.2-0.2 – 0.0
0.0 – 0.2
0.2 – 0.4
0.4 – 0.6
0.6 – 0.8
0.8 – 1.0>1.0

Precipitation trend, 1978-2015а)c)b)<-4-4 – -2-2 – 0
0–2
2–4
4–6
6–8
8 – 10>10а) cold period (Oct -Apr);b) warm period (May-Sept); c) year12 %by Smith et al. (2005; Science)

14.7%
by Walter et al. (2006; Nature)

Discoloration of boreal larch forest near Yakutsk.
June 2008

Soil erosion and landslides at Yakutia

Increasing of thermocarst process near townNumber of described plant and animal species in Yakutia
Group of organisms

Year
1935

1965

Fungi
Plants:vascularcryptogams
including:mosseslichensalgae
Animals:
insects
fishes (species and forms)
amphibians
reptilesbirds
mammals

1995

2000

241

>500

1190
577

1560
1830

1839
3609

1916 (76%*)3609 (62%)

181
42
354

236
300
1300

444
550
2615

517 (55%)705 (67%)2836 (65%)

600
36
2
2
138
37

1100
53
2
2
250
60

4000
53
4
2
280
63

4300(40%)
53(97%)
5(99%)
2(99%)
291(92%)75(98%)*in parentheses - supposed % of examination

Solomonov, 2004

By Gen Takao, 2003
Mild
Thinning andNutrition SupplySurface Fire

Normal Succession

Regeneration
MildBroadleaves
Regeneration

Seed Trees Survived

Crown FireBushBarren

SevereTree Clearance
Underground Fire

Fuel Accumulation
and Drying Out
Abnormally Long
Absence of Fire

Fuel Accumulation

Catastrophic Fire

Permafrost
ThawingBog

Forest and Fireon
Permafrost

AlasDirect Fire Emissions of 1998•••

Total burnt area
9.8 million ha
Including forest land
6.6 million ha
Consumed organic matter 154 Tg C•Emissions to the atmosphere
459 Tg CO2
1.4 Tg CH4
8.5 Tg of particles

45 Tg CO1.0 Tg NMHC
1.6 Tg NO2

Shvidenko, 2003

Global, continental and regional observational
networks of heat, water and carbon dioxide fluxes

The main purpose of research is to carry out interdisciplinary scientific research to address fundamental issues
that reveal a complete real picture of the status of the environment, the nature of the interaction of all its parts(atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryolithosphere), their impact on biodiversity, parameterization ofecosystems and forecasting and mitigation of possible directions and the consequences of global changes in theenvironment, as well as for solving the tasks of short-term monitoring of various aspects of human life

4M methodology is using for
research on climate change at
local, regional and global scales
1M – Monitoring ;2M - Manipulation;
3M – Modeling;
4M – Мanagement

••
•
•

Monitoring of climate change at
SakhaFluxNet research stations
Space (Аqua, NASA & JAXA),
Aerovisual (IL-18, AN-2, drones andaerostat),Land surface (high-rise towers andmasts),
Permafrost

SakhaFluxNet instrumentations

Chokurdakh

Yakutsk
Ust-MayaInterdisciplinary studies
on global climate changes
in North-Eastern Russia

17

16 мая 2013 г.

18

19

20

The Lena river catchment experiment[CO2] and [CH4] in atmosphere over Yakutsk

Machida, 2014 submitted

Cumulative carbon of representative permafrost
ecosystems in eastern Siberia

Seasonal carbon uptake by northern ecosystems

Annual carbon budget of permafrost forest
ecosystems, t C/ha per year

Maximov, 2003

Annual water budget of permafrost forest
ecosystems, mm per year

Maximov, 2003

Annual export and TOC flux from Lena river to
Arctic ocean

Cumulative fluxes
Larch forest (YAK) vs Typical tundra (CKD)
3,0y = -0.0248x + 2.2726
R² = 0.0902

2,0
1,51,0y = 0.0648x + 0.3955
R² = 0.327

0,50,0

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2030
2031
2032

NEE, t C ha-1 year-1

2,5YAK

CKD

Year

Trend YAK

Trend CKDNet Ecosystem Production in various
prediction models. Cramer et al., 2000

Land cover map of the Russian Federation andmeasurement sites

Carbon budget of Russia
NEEFireInsects
LUC (agriculture)
Cons. plant prod.
NBP=NEE-D
Wood net export
Food net exporthydro/lithosphere
NBP=NEE-D-F
Fossil fuel*NEE-D-F-Fossil FuelCarbon fluxes (Tg C-CO2/y)
EC
LEA
-1033
-1079.2
137
97.2
50.8
50.8
-34
170.4
170.4
-708.8-760.82020
18185656-614.8-666.8454
454-160.8-212.8Invers.

-653
201856-559
454-105*UNFCCC, Shvidenko et al. 2011

CH4 emissions not included but estimates are uncertain:
19.5 Tg C-CH4 /y (EDGAR)- all sources
27.6 Tg C-CH4 (Petrescu et al. 2010)-only boreal arctic wetlands

DGVM-199