R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Systems Analysis Group
Members (As of Apr. 2023)
Keigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Chief Researcher
Koya Yamada, Associate Chief Researcher
Kenichi Wada, Senior Researcher
Miyuki Nagashima, Senior Researcher
Takashi Homma, Senior Researcher
Fuminori Sano, Senior Researcher
Hironobu Yamakawa, Senior Researcher
Ayami Hayashi, Senior Researcher
Atsuko Fushimi, Senior Researcher
Noritaka Mochizuki, Senior Researcher (concurrent)
Tadashi Kuwatsuru, Senior Researcher

Yuko Nakano, Senior Researcher
Naoko Onishi, Senior Researcher
Teruko Hashimoto, Senior Researcher
Hitotsugu Masuda, Researcher
Teruhisa Ando, Researcher
Jubair Sieed, Researcher
Dahyun Kang, Researcher
Kiyomi Yamamoto, Assistant Researcher
Misako Saito, Assistant Researcher
Sachiko Kudo, Assistant Researcher
Ryoko Minamimura, Assistant Researcher

Research Activities in Systems Analysis GroupThe Systems Analysis Group aims to provide valuableconsequential. Separately, while developing models un-

information about response measures to global warm-

der the ALPS (Alternative Pathways toward Sustainable

ing and energy issues through systematic approaches

Development and Climate Stabilization) project, we de-and analyses at both national and international levels.

veloped quantitative scenarios that are consistent glob-

This article reports research status for the interna-ally, across energy supply and demand sides, and be-tional collaborative model comparison project, com-tween demand side sectors by following the scenario

monly called "EDITS" (Energy Demand changes Induced

protocol in the EDITS project and harmonizing withby Technological and Social innovation, commissioned

other research institutes.

project entrusted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade andIndustry), which has been developing scenarios to support achieving of a society with low energy demand

1.1. Importance of energy demand side measures andscenario trends

through technological and social innovation. For further

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

EDITS project information, refer to RITE Today vol. 17(IPCC) released its 1.5°C Special Report (SR15)1) in 2018.

(2022).

In the report, various emission pathways to achieve
1.5°C were presented, and in particular, the Low Energy

1. Introduction

Demand (LED) scenario2) was the focus of attention. This

Inducing social changes toward the low energy de-shows a much smaller picture of energy consumption

mand society to achieve the 2°C and 1.5°C goals notthan the final energy demand, as would normally be

only on the energy supply side but also on the energy

shown in model analysis. Also, this could contribute notdemand side is crucial. Moreover, it is not just a reduc-only to combating climate change, but also to the sim-tion in demand but a society that brings about a "virtu-

ultaneous achievement of the Sustainable Developmentous cycle between the economy and the environment,"

Goals (SDGs). The study in Ref. 3) also points out thein other words, the actualization of a society that in-fast technological progress of small-scale technologies,

creases wellbeing along with lowering demand iswhich are often found on the demand side. It points out

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R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

that the distributed small-scale technologies have been
increasingly utilized in recent years due to the energy

Human Needs

Real human needs?
(Innovations will
also change them.)

Technology and social innovations including
digitalization have opportunities inducing tochange this.

Change of Society and
Behavior

Human Activities

liberalization market, technological innovation and dig-

Energy・Material・Information／Human Activities

Energy Efficiency ↑Material Efficiency ↑italization. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)4) in-

CO2 Emissions／Energy・Material・Information

Low Carbon Energy
Low Carbon Material

ICT replace Ene./Mat.

Mitigation(Emissions reduction)
Historical analyses andmeasures mainly focus on:＋low carbon information

cludes a new chapter dedicated to demand-side
measures, with a survey of current papers and other information, and states that "Demand-side measures andnew ways of end-use service provision can reduce

CO2 Concentration／CO2 Emissions

CCS, CCU

Emission of Non CO2 GHG

Temp. Rise／GHG Concentration

Afforestation, DAC

Climate Control (SRM etc.)

Climate Engineering

Impact of Climate Change／Temp. Rise

Adaptation to Climate Impact

Adaptation

Residual Damage by Climate Change

global GHG emissions in end-use sectors by 40-70% by

Figure 1 Basic structure of global warming countermeas-

2050 compared to baseline scenarios.”, and "Demand-ures and changes in social structure and lifestylesside mitigation response options are consistent withimproving basic well-being for all." (Summary for Policymakers: SPM, C.10).

1.1. Example of evaluation of the feasibility of low energy demand by DX

Figure 1 shows the overall picture of global warming

Digital transformation (DX) and other innovations

measures. Traditionally, social structural and lifestyle

have created potentials to reduce implicit costs and in-changes have been mostly analyzed as exogenous sce-duce the circular and sharing economy through rela-narios. In such cases, however, it was unclear whattively low costs (e.g., Ref. 5)). The IPCC Sixth Assessment

measures would achieve low energy demand. Lifestyle

Report (AR6)4) also presents Figures 2 and 3 as a resultchange is mostly discussed in the context of education,of reports on the effects of each measure on reducing

and while the importance of education is understanda-

energy demand and CO2 emissions from various studies,ble, there has not been enough analytical research on

including the Ref. 5). Although there is a large range ofthe subject due to the long-time scale and uncertainty

estimates, it has been shown that fairly large reductionsof the effects to be shown as a major global effect. Thisin energy demand and CO2 emissions can also be ex-study is novel in that it attempts to quantitatively ana-

pected. On the other hand, these analyses evaluate re-lyze the possibility that technological changes, such as

duction rates for each measure and do not show con-digitalization, will trigger changes in social structure

sistent and quantitative energy reductions or CO2 emis-and lifestyles. Unless there is a change in the baseline

sion reductions across sectors. Also, as noted above, theemissions themselves to a lower level due to advances

IPCC AR6 states that "Demand-side measures and new

in energy demand side technologies, it will be very dif-ways of delivering end-use services could reduce global

ficult to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 or significant

GHG emissions in the end-use sector by 40 to 70 per-emission reductions.

cent by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario." However, each measure is evaluated by cumulating each of
the measures and is not necessarily estimated acrosssectors using a consistent and quantitative model, including the cost of the measures.

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R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

such as a circular and sharing economy, induced by DX.
What the EDITS project will explore and attempt to present as a quantitative scenario is not simply a demand
reduction, but a scenario that will bring about "the Virtuous Cycle of Environment and Economy," i.e., a society in which demand is reduced while wellbeing is improved.

2.1. Narrative scenario
In the EDITS project, the Narrative WG presented aqualitative “high wellbeing with low resource use (Highwith-Low)” scenario that considers the drivers shown in
Figure 46).
This scenario is a worldview that combines the advancement of digitalization, innovation through new
Figure 2 Impact of digitalization on energy consumption

combinations, and decent living standards (DLS), andand CO2 emissions (Source: Ref. 4))

assumes that low demand (in energy and various materials and products, etc.) can be achieved while increasing wellbeing. The relationship between the elements isshown in Figure 5.
In previous Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) analyses, final energy consumption is often given exogenously based on population and GDP scenarios, andelasticities are used to estimate final energy consumption under climate change measures. However, industrial and other demands are only a result of consumption behavior that enhances wellbeing. Energy demandis only a derived demand to obtain products and services. The method is highly novel in that it focuses onchanges in consumption behavior to obtain products

Figure 3 Impact of the sharing and circular economy on

and services, estimates the resulting reduction in de-energy consumption and CO2 emissions (Source: Ref. 4))

mand for material products and energy, and then estimates the overall energy supply and demand, as well as

2. Assumptions on analysis scenarios

the resulting CO2 emissions. Through this, the effects ofComprehensive and quantitative analysis of complex

demand-side measures will be visualized and used assystems and clarification of their usefulness and chal-an incentive for social change toward the realization oflenges will be a powerful driving force for society as a“the Virtuous Cycle of Environment and Economy”.

whole to promote a society with low energy demand,26

R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

analyze the effects of the circular and sharing economy
such as a decrease in basic material production or accompanying reduction in energy consumption.
Quantitative assumptions of scenarios based on qualitative scenario drivers shown in Figure 4 are conducted.
Table 1 shows scenario assumptions of circular economy (CE) induced by DX (hereafter in this report, sharing economies shall be included in circular economy
Figure 4 Assumed drivers for qualitative scenario ‘High-and thus described as “CE” as a whole). Table 2 presents

with-Low’ (Source: Ref. 6))

the titles of the scenarios analyzed and their assumptions. For emissions scenarios, the Baseline scenario
without any specific emissions scenario, and the B2DS
scenario that assumes 2°C with >66% probability, areassumed. For B2DS, GHG neutrality by 2050 is assumed
to be achieved within each major developed country including Japan.
As a potential impact of advanced digitalization andinnovation on the demand side, in addition to the CE,
the provision of flexibilities on the electricity demandside which contribute to increased consumption of variable renewable energies (VRE) is considered. More spe-

Figure 5 Relationship among the elements in qualitativecifically, technologies such as BEV, PHEV, heat-pumpscenario ‘High-with-Low’ (Source: Ref. 6))

water heaters, and cogeneration systems are assumed
to be able to provide a capability of more flexible de-

2.2 Assumptions in quantitative scenario analysis

mand adjustment towards VRE (especially PV) supply

The potential for achieving a low-energy demand so-

within the electricity load curve of DNE21+, than theciety as well as the impact on emission reduction ofstandard scenario (“FL” scenario). Grid integration costs

GHG realized by the circular and sharing economy

are assumed to be able to reduce, considering the pos-

mainly induced by DX, are quantitatively estimated us-

sibility of reducing battery storage size in the grid due

ing the global energy assessment model DNE21+. It isto the reverse power flow from BEV and PHEV.

noted that currently only a fraction of spillover effects

In many cases, the demand-side technologies are inis considered for estimates due to the limited availabil-

smaller sizes, called granular technologies. The learning

ity of quantitative data. In addition to that, large uncer-

rates of these technologies tend to be observed as be-tainties exist in the assumed precondition for the model,

ing higher in general, due to their quicker development

leaving us with issues of acquiring and reflecting better

cycles. Although DNE21+ has already assumed larger

data. DNE21+ conducts a bottom-up assessment ofcost reductions for PV, wind power, or EV batteries,

carbon-intensive products such as iron and steel, ce-even in the standard scenario, we have assumed a sce-ment, or chemical products, enabling us to consistently

nario in which the learning rates of these relatively

27

R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

smaller-scale technologies are further higher (“GR” sce-

scenario to be compared with the results of other sce-nario) However, it is noted that this scenario is an exog-

narios.

enous assumption, and should be treated as a reference28

R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Table 1 Scenario assumptions of circular economy (CE) induced by DX
Changes due to digitalization

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts

Model assumptions (tentative)1) Ride and car-sharing
associated with fully autonomous cars

- Energy consumption
reductions due to ridesharing- Reductions in consumptionof basic materials, e.g., ironand steel, plastics, tire, glass,and concrete, due to reductions in number of cars associated with car-sharing- Reductions in freight shipping => 8)- Iron and steel production: -4% (forcars and multi-story car park)- Plastic production: -1%- Tire production (for cars): -28%
- Glass production (for cars): -28% (corresponding reductions in energy consumption is assumed.)- Cement production: -1% (only for
multistory car park)

2) Virtual meeting andteleworking- Reductions in travel
service demand and theassociated reductions inenergy consumptions intransport sector- Potential reductions in numbers of commercial building,and the resulting reductions iniron and steel, concrete, andothers [Not yet considered]- Reductions in person-km travel bypassenger cars, buses, and aircraft by
10%3) E-publication etc.

- Reductions in paper
consumptions due tolarge deployment epublications etc.

- Potential reductions in
freight services for papers [Notyet considered]- Reductions in paper/pulp by 20%

4) Recycling and reductions in apparels due to
e-commerce and otherdigitalization- Reductions in energy
consumptions for apparel productions- Potential reductions in energy consumption at shopping
centers, and the reductions iniron and steel, concrete due toless building construction, etc.
[Not yet considered]- Reduction in new productions of apparels by 20% (No explicit modeling forapparels in DNE21+, and corresponding
reductions in energy consumption is assumed.)5) Loger life time ofbuildings due to improv.
In city planning- Potential reductions in
cement and steel due tolonger life time of buildings

6) Reductions in foodlosses due to better demand projection- Reductions in nitrogen fertilizer, plastics,
etc. and the resulting
energy consumption reductions- Potential reductions inenergy consumption atsupermarkets etc.
- Red. In CH4 and N2O- Reductions in freight shipping services => 8)- Potential reductions in construction for supermarkets etc.,
and the resulting reductions iniron and steel, concrete, andothers. [Not yet considered]- Potential increases in afforestation due to increase inrooms of land area. [Not yet
considered]- Reduction in petrochemical products
including ammonia by 1%- Reduction in plastics by 1%- Reduction in paper and pulp by 0.5%
- Reduction in transport services by 1%
and others(according to I/O analysis results)- Reduction in CH4 and N2O emissions:
493 MtCO2eq/yr in 2050

7) AM (3D-printing) for
applying aircraft- Reduction in aluminum and steel production- Reduction in electricity for productions- Energy efficiency improvements of aircraft and the energy consumption reductions- Energy efficiency improvements of cars and the energy
consumption reductions [Notyet considered]- Reduction in aluminum and steel productions by 1% and 0.02%, respectively- Reduction in electricity consumption
by 1%- Increase in energy efficiency of aircraftby about 10%8) Reductions in freightshipping services due toreductions in basic materials and products- Energy consumption
reductions in freightshipping- Longer lifetime of building: +40%; therelated reductions in cement (-3%) andsteel (-3%) productions- Reduction in freight shipping demandby 1%

Red: residential sector, Green: commercial sector, Blue: transport sector, Purple: industry sector, Brown: Non-CO2 GHGs etc.

29

R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Table 2 Assumed scenarios for circular economy (CE) induced by DX

Note) For Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), this study employed the SSP2, middle of the road scenario.
The rebound effects other than the ones associated with the reductions in carbon prices are not considered.

3. Results

in global GHG emissions, respectively, from the stand-Firstly, the results of the Baseline scenarios are pre-ard scenario (Std) that does not assume CE progress.

sented. Figure 6 and 7 show the reductions in global

Even considering only the limited number of CE cases

final energy consumption and in global GHG emissions,and spillover effects, it is indicated that about 6% of therespectively, from the standard scenario (Std) where CE

world’s current total final energy consumption andprogress is not assumed. Although it is in the analysis

around half of the energy saving estimated to be eco-stage considering only limited spillover effects, it is in-nomically efficient under the 2°C target could be addi-

dicated that considerable cross-sectoral energy-saving

tionally saved by CE in 2050. Under the condition where

effects can be expected by realizing the assumed CE.

the emission reduction targets are defined, the as-

The contribution of car sharing and ride sharing, in-sumed CE measures are relatively inexpensive, and the

duced by the realization of fully automated cars, to lowdependence on the technologies recognized as theenergy demand is significant as the effects of DX as-

measures with marginal costs, such as carbon dioxide

sumed in this analysis, including the spillover effects onremoval (CDR) including bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)

the industrial sector. Besides, large impacts can be ex-

and CO2 direct capture and storage (DACCS) can be re-pected by other changes such as virtual meetings. It is

duced. Although the final energy consumption reduc-shown that reducing food loss has the potential totion effect is significant, the CO2 reduction effect is not

greatly promote the reduction of non-CO2 GHGs in par-estimated as large as the energy consumption, because

ticular.

it includes a reduction in CO2 intensity on the energy

Similarly, for the B2DS scenarios, Figure 8 and 9 show

supply side. However, the cost reduction effect is huge.

the reductions in global final energy consumption and30

R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Final
energy consumption
Final energy
consumption
最終エネルギー消費量[Mtoe/yr] [Mtoe/yr]-1400-1300 -1200-1200-1100 -1000-1000-900-800 -800-700-600 -600-500-400-400-300-200-200
-100

0

0 100

200

2050 2050

20402040

2030
2030

BL-Mobil
BL-Mobil
Industry
BL-Resid
産業部門
民生部門
運輸部門
BL-Resid
BL-Build
Building (Residential & commercial)
BL-Build
BL-Food
BL-Food
Transport
BL-IndBL-IndBL-All_CE
BL-All_CE
BL-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-All_CE+FL
BL-Mobil
BL-Mobil
BL-Resid
BL-Build
BL-Resid
BL-Food
BL-Build
BL-IndBL-Food
BL-All_CE
BL-IndBL-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-All_CE
BL-Mobil
BL-All_CE+FL
BL-Resid
BL-Mobil
BL-Build
BL-Resid
BL-Food
BL-IndBL-Build
BL-All_CE
BL-Food
BL-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-IndBL-All_CE
Figure BL-All_CE+FL
6 Changes in global final energy consumption under CE scenarios (Baseline)

GHG emissions[MtCO2eq/yr]
GHG emissions[MtCO2eq/yr]-14000 -14000-12000-12000 -10000-10000

-8000
-8000

-6000
-6000

-4000
-4000

-2000
-2000

00

2000
2000

鉄鋼部門
Iron & steel
セメント部門Cement2030

BL-BuildBL-Build
BL-Food
BL-Food
BL-IndBL-IndBL-All_CE
BL-All_CE
BL-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-All_CE+FL
BL-Mobil
BL-Mobil
BL-Resid
BL-Resid
BL-Build
BL-Build
BL-Food
BL-Food
BL-IndBL-IndBL-All_CE
BL-All_CE
BL-All_CE+FL+GR
2040

紙パルプ部門Pulp & paper
化学部門
Chemical
その他産業部門
Other industries
道路交通部門Road transport
国内航空部門Domestic aviation
その他国内運輸部門
Other domestic transport
Due to EV
advancement 国際航空部門
Intn'l aviation bunkers
国際海運部門Intn'l marine bunkers
民生部門
Residential & commercial
発電部門
Power generation
その他エネ転部門

BL-All_CE+FL
BL-Mobil
BL-Mobil
BL-Resid
BL-Resid
BL-Build

2050

2040

2030

BL-Mobil
BL-Mobil
BL-Resid
BL-Resid

Other energy coversion
土地利用起源CO2
LULUCF CO2
プロセス起源CO2

2050

BL-FoodBL-Build
BL-IndBL-Food

Process CO2
CO2以外のGHG
Non-CO2 GHG

BL-All_CE BL-Ind
BL-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-All_CE

BL-All_CE+FL

Figure 7 Changes in global GHG emissions under CE scenarios (Baseline)

energyconsumption[Mtoe/yr]
最終エネルギー消費量[Mtoe/yr]
FinalFinalenergyconsumption-3000-3000 -2500-2500 -2000 -2000-1500 -1500-1000 -1000-500 -50000500 500

2030
2030

B2DS-StdB2DS-Std
B2DS-All_CE
B2DS-All_CE

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

BL-All_CE+FL
B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

2040
2040

B2DS-StdB2DS-Std
B2DS-All_CE
B2DS-All_CE

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

BL-All_CE+FL
B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

Reboundeffects due toreductions incarbon prices

2050
2050

B2DS-StdB2DS-Std
B2DS-All_CE
B2DS-All_CE

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

BL-All_CE+FL
B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

Industry産業部門 Building (residential& commercial)
民生部門

Transport
運輸部門Ref.) Global final energy consumption in 2019: 10 Gtoe/yr; baseline final energy consumption in 2050: 14 Gtoe/yr

Figure 8 Changes in global final energy consumption under CE scenarios (B2DS)

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R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Reduction in dependency
on CDR options

GHG emissions [GtCO2eq/yr]
-60

-60

-50

-50

-40GHG emissions-30 [GtCO2eq/yr]-20

-40

-30

-20

-10

-10

0

0

10

10

鉄鋼部門
Iron
& steelB2DS-Std

B2DS-Std

セメント部門Cement2040

2040

紙パルプ部門Pulp& paper
B2DS-All_CE

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR
BL-All_CE+FL

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

B2DS-All_CE

化学部門
Chemical
その他産業部門
Other
industries
道路交通部門Road
transport
国内航空部門Domestic
aviation
その他国内運輸部門
Other
domestic transport
国際航空部門Intn'laviation bunkers

B2DS-Std

Intn'lmarine bunkers
国際海運部門

B2DS-Std

Residential
民生部門 & commercial

2050

2050

Power
generation
発電部門
B2DS-All_CE B2DS-All_CE

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

Otherenergy coversion
その他エネ転部門
LULUCFCO2
土地利用起源CO2
Process
CO2
プロセス起源CO2

BL-All_CE+FL

B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

Energy savings induced by carbon prices

Non-CO2
GHG
CO2以外のGHG
DACCS
DACCS

Ref.) Global GHG emissions in 2019: 59 GtCO2eq./yr; baseline GHG emissions in 2050: 73 GtCO2eq./yr

Figure 9 Changes in global GHG emissions under CE scenarios (B2DS)

Figure 10 shows global final energy consumption per

Table 3 shows the changes in the total energy systems

capita by region. Developed countries are consuming

costs under the CE scenarios compared to those in the

more energy than needed especially on the demand

standard scenarios, and Figure 4 shows the CO2 mar-side, and the realization of low energy demand is in-ginal abatement costs in B2DS. It is estimated that the

duced and the international disparities of energy con-promotion of CE induced by DX will lead to a significant

sumption per capita is reduced in ‘High-with-Low’ sce-

reduction in energy systems costs. In particular, a sig-

nario.

nificant cost reduction in the whole society induced byride-sharing and car-sharing using fully automated cars
can be expected, and also the changes in the residential

3.5

sector, such as teleworking, and the reduction of food

3.0
2.5

loss would have relatively high potential to reduce en-

2.0
1.5

ergy systems costs.

1.0

In addition, as Table 4 indicates, a reduction in mar-

0.5

2015

2030

OECD

2040

ASIA

MAF

LAM

B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

B2DS-Std

B2DS-All_CE

BL-All_CE+FL

BL-StdBL-All_CE

B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

B2DS-Std

B2DS-All_CE

BL-All_CE+FL

BL-StdBL-All_CE

B2DS-All_CE

B2DS-All_CE+FL+GR

B2DS-Std

BL-All_CE+FL

BL-Std0.0

BL-All_CE

FInal energy consumption per capita [toe/capita]

4.0

ginal CO2 abatement costs (about 20-30 %) can be expected in achieving long-term targets such as 2°C goal.

2050

REF

World total

Figure 10 Final energy consumption per capita by region

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R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

Table 3 Reductions in energy systems costs: under CE scenarios (unit: Billion USD/yr)

Annual averagein 2030-2040

Annual averagein 2040-2050

All_CE

All_CE+FL+FL+GR

▲894

▲894

▲963

▲5

▲926

▲928

▲1038

▲74

▲7

▲1971

▲1971

▲2085

▲90

▲14

▲2037

▲2038

▲2266

Scenarios

Mobil

Resid

Build

Food

Ind

All_CE

Baseline

▲547

▲339

▲1

▲57

▲4

B2DS

▲556

▲352

▲0

▲64

Baseline

▲1601

▲459

▲1

B2DS

▲1635

▲477

▲6

Note) The changes in the costs compared those in the standard scenarios for each emissions reduction target.

Table 4 CO2 marginal abatement costs in B2DS (unit: USD/tCO2eq)
B2DS-Std

B2DS_All-CE

B2DS_All-CE+FL

B2DS_All-CE+FL+GR

2040

68−31057−23857−24050−1952050

146−739

123−524122−52260−364Note) The cost ranges are those due to the differences in emissions targets across countries

4. Summary

the Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario addressed inThis fiscal year, as a consistent and quantitative sce-

IPCC SR1.5 is far below the estimate in this analysis.

nario across regions/countries and sectors, modelingThus, it is necessary to quantitatively model various

and preliminary calculations were performed in themeasures which could be induced by DX, as well as so-

DNE21+, the global energy assessment model, lining

cial changes, such as CE that can be influenced deriva-

with the qualitative scenario “high wellbeing with low

tively, and conduct quantitative scenario evaluations.

resource use (High-with-Low)” presented by the Narra-

On the other hand, it is also essential to deepen our un-tive Group. We modeled, analyzed, and evaluated only

derstanding of the reasons why the gaps occur with the

CE that some DX can induce due to the difficulty of

LED scenarios. Further progress in quantitative andquantitative estimation. In addition, as for the spillover

comprehensive analysis, and on the contrary, if gaps still

effects, only limited effects were considered due to theexist, deepening understanding of those gaps will bedifficulty of quantitatively estimating. Despite these, theindispensable for the evaluation in the next IPCC reports.

corresponding energy reduction and GHG emission re-

In addition, it is essential to assess the energy reduction

duction effects were evaluated. Additionally, a reduc-side, proceed with the analysis, including the reboundtion in energy system costs and in CO2 marginal abate-effect, and conduct a more comprehensive evaluation.

ment costs in the B2DS scenario (below 2°C, >66%
probability) were estimated. This can be said to be a

Referencescenario that indicates the possibility of a "virtuous cy-

1） IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ℃

cle between the economy and the environment" or"high wellbeing with low resource use."
However, the estimate of final energy consumption in(2018)
2） A. Grubler et al., A low energy demand scenario formeeting

the

1.5°C

targetandsustainable

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R&D Activities ● Systems Analysis GroupRITE Today 2023

development goals without negative emission technologies. Nat. Energy, 3(6), 515–527 (2018)3） C. Wilson et al., Granular technologies to accelerate
decarbonization. Science, 368(6486), 36–39 (2020)
4） IPCC WG3 AR6: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of
Climate Change (2022)
5） C. Wilson, L. Kerr, F. Sprei, E. Vrain, M. Wilson, Potential
Climate Benefits of Digital Consumer Innovations.
Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 45(1) (2020)
6） EDITS WG3 Narratives group (Arnulf Grubler, Greg
Nemet, Shonali Pachauri, Charlie Wilson), The 'Highwith-Low' Scenario Narrative (2022)

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