The Implications of Climate Change and Loss ofBiodiversity:
Why Action is Needed Now

Robert T. Watson
Strategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEA
Chair of Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity andEcosystem Services
Former Chair of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeTokyo, Japan
8 September 2017

Summary of the Presentation• Policy framework• Human-induced climate change• Loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystemservices• Implications of human induced climate change andloss of biodiversity for the UN sustainable
development goals

Policy Framework• Paris climate agreement• 20 Convention on Biodiversity Aichi goals andtargets• 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
The large majority of Governments have signed thesethree global agreements

Elements of the 2015 Paris Agreement
Article 2: Limit the global temperature increase to below 2oC, and pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels.
Article 4: Global emissions of greenhouse gases should peak as soon as
possible, and anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks should
balance by the second half of this century
Article 4.2: Each Party must prepare Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)
Article 7: A recognition that there is a significant need for adaptation
Article 9: Developed countries will provide financial resources to assist
developing countries with respect to mitigation and adaptation, with a floor of
US$100B per year
Articles 4.9/14: A global stock take will take place every 5 years, starting in2023

Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020

The Aichi Biodiversity Targets
Goal A
Mainstreaming

Goal B
Direct drivers

Goal C
Improved status

Goal D
Enhance benefits

Goal EImplementation

Climate Change

Climate Change is one of the Greatest Threats toHuman Well-Being

There is no doubt that human activities are changing the Earth’s climate,
warmer temperatures, more extreme weather events and sea level rise

Most of the impacts of climate change are harmful, especially in developing
countries, and will undermine the ability of many countries to achieve the 17
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

All countries need to transition to a low-carbon economy to limit humaninduced climate change as soon as possible, using cost-effective low-carbon
technologies, which are currently available

The current Paris Agreement Pledges are inadequate to limit climate change to2oC, let alone the aspirational target of 1.5oC, hence they need to bestrengthenedThe time for action is now – we need to both reduce the emissions ofgreenhouse gases and adapt to a changing climate

Observed and Simulated Trends in Temperature
SPOOoooM.ObseOrved 6
OComparison of observed and simulated climate change

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Observed Impacts Due to Climate ChangeProjections of Temperature and Precipitation
Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Global mean sea level rise

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Ocean acidification

Projected Impacts of Climate Change• Higher temperatures and more variable precipitation (resulting in an increase infloods and droughts), coupled with an increase in extreme events, e.g., intense
cyclones, will adversely impact agriculture and water resources (quality andquantity)• An increase in heavy precipitation events, will increase soil erosion with thepotential of increase siltation of reservoirs and landslides• Sea level rise will impact coastal infrastructure and local communities, includingsalt water intrusion impacting water quality and agriculture• Ocean acidification will adversely impact on fisheries and coral reefs• Increased incidence of hunger, heat stress mortality, vector and water-borne
diseases• Warmer temperatures, extreme weather events, and more variable precipitation
will adversely impact on biodiversity and ecosystems
Poor people and developing countries are the most vulnerable

Tackling the Challenge of Climate Change – anear-term actionable agenda• Significant cost-effective potential to rapidly increase energy
efficiency in all sectors with existing commercially available
technologies• Significant scope for the early deployment of renewable energy
technologies (wind, solar and possibly modern biomass), if
supported with appropriate policies and increased public and private
sector financing• An effective price on carbon to reflect the health and environmental
costs of emissions• A systems-wide transformation towards a low-carbon economy
requires policies to catalyze behavioural change across societies• The least efficient coal plants should be retired and no more coalplants without carbon capture and storage should be builtGlobal CO2 Emissions
140

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)

120
10080

IPCC AR5 2 Degree
RCP 6.0
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
GEA (SE4ALL)

RCP 8.5

reductions of 35-75% by 2050
RCP 6.060

Peak by 202040
RCP 4.5200

almost zero or negative in the long term-20
1900

1950

2000

2050

RCP 2.62100

Staying within the 2oC target
GHG emissions(GtCO2e/yr)+ 7°C

120+ 6°C

100+ 5°C

Baseline80+ 4°C

2010:
47.5 GtCO2e60

2030:~42 GtCO2e

40+ 3°C+ 2°C2°C

2020:~52 GtCO2e20(> 66% chance)+ 1°C+/- 00

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2100

Credit: UNEP, 2015 https://www.dropbox.com/sh/vk018yr6h5xulnc/AABISJFv Xv7BFF4uBKIUVWa?dl=0

Estimated
globalwarming by2100(°C rel.
1850-1900)

INDC contributions andthe emissions gap
Baseline
Global total emissions:
65 GtCO2e (range: 60-70)

Unconditional INDC case
Currentpolicy
Gap=14trajectory
GtCO2eGlobal total emissions:
60 Conditional
GtCO2e (range:58-62)
INDCcase

Cond. INDC case

Uncond. INDC case

1214The Gap

Gap= 12INDCGtCO
2e
Unconditional
case
Global total
emissions:
3.4 cm
56 GtCO2e (range: 54-59)

Conditional
INDCa case
The
INDCs present
realincreasein theemissions:ambition level
Global totalcompareda projection
54
GtCO2e to(range:52-57)ofcurrent policies.
2°C pathways
The emissions gap in both 2025
Global total emissions:and 2030 will be very significant31-44)
42
GtCO2e (range:and ambitions
will need to beenhanced urgently.

The Truth about the Paris Agreement
While the Paris Agreement is an important step to limit humaninduced climate change, the pledges by 189 nations are inadequate toachieve the 2oC target - what is needed is a doubling or tripling ofefforts
Global Temperature Could Reach the 2oC Threshold by 2050-2060 andthe 1.5oC aspirational target by the early 2030s
Without additional actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions we areon pathway to 3-4oC

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

What is biodiversity?

The variety of life
at all levels…
…. genes, populations, species and ecosystems…
…. land, water and air.
…. and the interactions between living thingsWhat are ecosystem services?
The benefits people derive from ecosystems

Ecosystem
service type
Provisioning
CulturalRegulating

Final ecosystem services (example of goods)
Crops, livestock, fish (food)Trees, standing vegetation, peat (fibre, energy, carbon seq.)
Water supply (domestic and industrial water)
Wild species diversity (Recreation, food, disease/pest control))
Meaningful places (Recreation, tourism, Spiritual/religious)
Socially valued land/waterscapes (Recreation, tourism,spiritual/religious)
Climate regulation (equable climate)
Pollination
Hazard regulation (erosion control, flood control)
Noise regulation (noise control)
Waste detoxification and purification (pollution control)Intermediate
ecosystem services
and processes

Pollination

Species extinctions
Human activities havetaken the planet to theedge of a massive waveof species extinctions,further threatening ourown well-beingUnprecedented change: Ecosystems

Drivers of biodiversity loss growing

Mainstreaming2020 Aichi Targets

1. Aware of values of biodiversity
2. Biodiversity values integrated into national accounting
3. Eliminate subsidies and promote subsidies to protect biodiversity
4. Implement sustainable production and consumption plansDirect drivers
1. Half the loss of natural habitats
2. Marine species harvested sustainably
3. Agriculture, forestry and aquaculture managed sustainably
4. Pollution levels reduced to avoid impacts on biodiversity
5. Invasive alien species under control
6. Mimimize impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reefs
Improved status
1. Terrestrial (17%) and marine (10%) protected areas
2. Prevent extinction of threatened species
3. Maintain genetic diversity of cultivated plants, wild relatives maintained
Enhanced benefits
1. Restore ecosystem services – water, health, livelihoods and well-being
2. Enhance carbon storage
3. Implement equitable sharing of benefits – Nagoya Protocol
Implementation
1. National actionable biodiversity plans developed and implemented
2. ILK respected
3. Improved scientific understanding
4. Mobilize financial resources

GBO-4 “dashboard”:
Assessment of progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets
Movingaway fromTarget

On track toachieve
TargetNo progress
towards
targetOn track toexceedTargetProgresstowards target,
but not toachieve it

Insufficient
information
to evaluate
progressNo clearevaluation

Progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets: 55 Indicators
GBO-4 Assessment
111212313414515

616

717

818

Not
evaluated

19910

Notevaluated20

NotevaluatedSDGs Affected by Climate Change and Loss of Biodiversity
1.End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2.End hunger, achieve food security and promote sustainable agriculture
3.Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4.Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all
5.Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6.Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7.Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all
8.Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment anddecent work for all
9.Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
10.Reduce inequality within and among countries
11.Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12.Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13.Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
14.Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15.Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16.Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all
and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17.Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainabledevelopment

Conclusions• The world:• is vulnerable to human-induced climate change and loss of biodiversity• has considerable opportunities to increase the efficent use of energy
and to exploit cost-effective renewable energy technologies, andconserve and sustainably use biodiversity• must recognize that there is no dichotomy between economic growthand protecting the environment, indeed, the old philospohy of pollute
now and clean-up later has been completely discredited
The world is not on course to achieve the Aichi targets or the Parisagreement, hence undermining the SDGs
Act now to transition to a low-carbon economy
Act now to conserve and protect biodiversity
We need to generate new knowledge (e.g., Future Earth) and assess
knowledge (IPCC and IPBES) for informed decision-making

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services•

Objective: Strengthen the science-policy interface by providing policy relevant
knowledge on biodiversity and ecosystem services to inform decision making –biodiversity equivalent of IPCC

•Currently 127 Members (Governments)•Independent intergovernmental body administered by UNEP, serving all
biodiversity-related MEAs and relevant UN agencies•

Currently implementing its first Work Programme (2014-2018)

The 4 functions of IPBESIPBES was established with four agreed functions – all covered within the firstwork program (2014-2018) - The budget for the first work programme is about$40M, plus significant in-kind contributions• Assessment

Deliver global, regional, thematic and methodologicalassessments on biodiversity and ecosystem services• Knowledge
generation
catalysis

Catalyse efforts to generate new knowledge• Policy support Identify policy relevant tools/methodologies, facilitate theirtools
use, and promote and catalyse their further development• Capacity
building

Prioritize key capacity building needs, and provide and callfor financial and other support to address them

IPBES work follows this Conceptual Framework:

IPBES Assessments
2 full assessments completed and approved by IPBES-4 (Feb 2016)
 Pollination and pollinators associated with food production
 Scenarios and models of biodiversity & ecosystem services
5 assessments initiated in 2015 (to be delivered mid 2018)
 Land degradation and restoration
 4 Regional/Subregional assessments
 Africa
 Americas
 Asia-Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Global assessment initiated in 2016 (to be delivered mid-2019)

THANK YOU