•

UNEP. (n.d.). Thailand - Main details. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Convention on biologicaldiversity: https://www.cbd.int/countries/profile/?country=th•World Bank Group. (2020). The Human Capital Index 2020 update: Human Capital in the Time of
COVID-19. Washington D.C.: World Bank.

•World Bank Group. (2021). Climatology. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Climate Change
Knowledge

PortalforDevelopment

Practitioners

andPolicyMakers:https://

climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-historical•Worldometer. (2021). Thailand population. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Worldometer:https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/thailand-population/•

Worldometer. (n.d.). CO2 Emissions. Retrieved August 25, 2022, from Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/CO 2-emissions/

A Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions 2050: Thailand
Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University
Asian Institute of Technology
Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Kyoto University

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
Mizuho Research & Technologies
First published in 2022
by Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment

47
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

BIBLIOGRAPHY

The roadmap of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2050 or NZE2050 Thailand is one of•

BOT. (2022). Exchange Rates. Retrieved from Bank of Thailand: https://www.bot.or.th/thai/the joint research outcomes of support and collaboration among Thammasat University (TU)

statistics/financialmarkets/exchangerate/_layouts/application/exchangerate/exchangerate.aspx

Thailand, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Thailand, the National Institute for Environmental•

CIF. (2021). Clinker Substitution. Retrieved from Cement Industry Foundation: https://cement.org.au/clinker-substitution/•

DEDE. (2020). Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018-2037 (AEDP 2018-2037). Bangkok:

Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050.

ThailandThe measures for GHG mitigation options in the demand and supply sides include behavior changes

Electric

VehicleCurrent

Status:http://www.evat.or.th/attachments/view/?

GIZ. (2022, May 12). GIZ Agriculture & Food Cluster. Retrieved from Thai Rice NAMA Factsheet

Henriksen, O. (2022). Thai Rice NAMA. Retrieved from GIZ Agriculture & Food Cluster: https://www.asean-agrifood.org/thai-rice-nama/#:~:text=Thai%20Rice%20NAMA%2C%20funded%
20by,and%20technologies%20accessible%20to%20farmers.

•

•

•

in the demand sectors, improvement of energy efficiency, new renewable energy development,
electrification of transportation, Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS), Carbon Capture
Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and green hydrogen.
This report is the first roadmap to be accomplished for NZE2050 using an optimization model, called“AIM/Enduse”. The macro-economic impacts of NZE2050 are evaluated by a computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE”, in terms of changes in gross domestic product (GDP),changes in welfare, changes in government consumption and the related carbon prices.

IGES. (n.d.). Report on AIM/Enduse Model. Retrieved from IGES: https://www.iges.or.jp/en/

The roadmap provided in this report has been prepared based on assumptions concerning limitations

publication_documents/pub/workingpaper/en/2165/aimenduse_report_fin.pdf

of resources, capital requirement, technological advancement, timing of technology adoption, andLimmeechokchai, B., Winyuchakrit, P., Pita, P., Misila, P., & Kanbua, S. (2020). The study on

appropriateness for Thailand.

determination of appropriate discount rates for evaluation of GHG mitigation measures. Bang-

It is our hope that this roadmap to net zero emissions 2050 will be one of the Asian pioneering efforts

kok: Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (Public Organization).

that will contribute to widespread usage for climate policy in Thailand and other Asian countries to

The World Bank. (2022, March). Overview. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from The World Bank in
Thailand: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview•

This report includes a roadmap to deep decarbonized the Energy sector as well as the Industrial

EVAT. (2022, June). Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand. Retrieved August 25, 2022, fromEnglish: https://www.asean-agrifood.org/thai-rice-nama-factsheet-English/•

and Mizuho Research and Technologies Japan. We acknowledge the great support by NIES, IGES

Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector, the Agriculture sector, the Waste sector, and the Land

attach_id=265019•

Studies (NIES) Japan, Kyoto University, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Japan,

and Mizuho Research and Technologies for the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM).

Ministry of Energy.

•

PREFACE

The World Bank Group, & The Asian Development Bank. (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile:

help limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This roadmap aims at communication among

policy makers, administrators, academic researchers, and public on climate resilient society.
The research findings are intended to contribute to sustainable development of Thailand, one of
the fast-growing economies in Southeast Asia, towards a Thai style climate resilient society.

Thailand. The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank.
(Bundit Limmeechokchai)46
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University
October, 2022

INPUT- OUTPUT DATA OF 2015

CONTENTS

Unit: Million USD

Water
supplysystemEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1

1 ABOUT THAILAND

4021

2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES
3 NATIONAL EMISSIONS
4 ROLE OF THAILAND ON CLIMATE CHANGE

5 2-DEGREE BASELINE AND NZE2050 PATHWAY

8
12
15

19

6 TECHNOLOGY ENGAGEMENT IN NZE2050

24

7 MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS

32

8 LINKAGES BETWEEN NZE2050 AND SDGS
9 UNCERTAINTY OF FORESTRYSEQUESTRATION

38
40

Construction

Trade

022

023

Services

Railways

024

025

GovernPrivate
ment
Other
ConRoad
Water
Air
Commu- UnclassiConTransport
sumptionsumptionTransport Transport Transportnication
fied
ExpendiServices
Expenditure
ture

026

027

028

029

030

031

301

302

Gross
Fixed
CapitalFormation

303

Increasein Stock

Exports(F.O.B.)

Special
Exports

Imports(C.I.F.)

Import
Duty

Import
Tax

304

305

306

401

402

403

SpecialControl Total
Imports

404

600

0

26

0

3,491

0

0

0

62

0

0

215

7,552

54

0

992

2,490

457

-3,174

-115

-17

-246

36,308

0

0

0

167

0

0

0

0

0

0

11

1,642

13

103

0

181

0

-137

-1

-2

0

9,569

0

157

0

32

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

226

0

0

-975

329

0

-203

-5

-15

0

619

0

0

0

1,318

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

1,620

3

10

0

92

0

-108

-1

0

0

5,409

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

77

4

0

-1,254

-3

-93

0

397

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-2,19548

0-21,228-22-1,8110

12,899

1

1,846

0

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

74

0

0

0

-2,515

465

0

-502

-3

-28

0

2,829

0

0

136

12,242

0

11

0

228

8

0

434

34,887172

0-4,20925,512

1,198-8,862-260-1,000-584

77,08819,231

0

11

277

936

0

9

28

26

10

0

120

6,818

112

171

-1,846

6,680

2,859

-4,075

-44

-175

-942

1

30

538

3,765

0

25

13

9

75

29

62

1,754

354

0

-1,0841,300

529-2,405-31-145-1,368

7,372

77

541

85

5,553

0

16

13

30

9

3

181

4,140

193

0

-6,57814,495682-18,831

-257

-783

-857

29,486

10

568

704

2,700

49

3,643

2,253

2,460

229

131

58

5,719

963

0

-1,080

6,539

1,459

-2,025-25-224-2,01534,520

14

417

1,269

371

0

322

5

4

30

9

142

2,575

27

168

-49

12,84020-5,669

-92

-206

0

21,246

15

7,236

31

90

0

0

0

0

0

0

185

973

36

613

-269

1,992

0

-1,815

-21

-59

-63

13,092

0

2,734

3

513

1

3

11

0

0

0

145

0

3

0

-4,7904,383

0-26,299-159-1,062

0

8,369

3

1,860

41

549

20

7

6

23

100

0

96

1,234

95

2,617

1,422

6,741

262

-9,524

-124

-300

0

11,255
155,365

5

2,126

879

5,576

32

3,809

381

398

89

165

699

15,478574

46,524

3,667

82,312512-72,054-1,051-2,594

-198

12

365

422

2,270

3

6

8

5

44

7

359

7,381

428

4,841

-78

18,3172,592-9,436-92-436-1,91936,711

191

2,456

7,463

4

67

25

180

202

397

43

4,765

1,011

0

0

178

0

-549

0

-40

0

27,665
18,29010 METHODOLOGY

42

288
0

5

8

685

0

2,848

17

0

4

17

43

4,201

55

0

4,547

20

0

-3,741

-801

-301

0

11 REFERENCES

46

68

17

177

362

0

7

1

11

4

13

0

800

195

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,012

0

17

227

568

1

8

2

6

13

0

6

158

115

30,896

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

32,310

19

2,526

546

7,493

9

748

331

238

56

40

369

22,243364

6,669-2,041

12,823

2,015

0

0

0

0

89,690

173

1,497

7,254

20,893

11

693

596

1,178

1,213

1,093

666

79,28559,496000

28,06900

0-17,417200,456

0

1

0

17

0

1

0

0

4

0

3

117

2

0

0

0

63

0

0

0

-28

230

4

1,971

364

1,019

1

291

46

14

99

100

167

7,797

243

295

-123

1,370

2,721

0

0

0

-1,56018,436

0

11

90

165

0

16

663

9

40

0

41

3,746

0

325

-80

516

2,780

0

0

0

-894

8,227

0

4

812

355

0

11

58

2,107

340

163

43

4,092

28

0

0

0

4,194

0

0

0

-2,548

10,096

0

1

848

25

0

0

7

460

311

11

1

1,916

0

0

0

0

2,436

0

0

0

-1,285

5,795

0

29

714

2,775

0

21

30

85

56

1,734

134

4,186

517

0

0

0

1,955

0

0

0

-2,717

10,489

21

76

309

711

7

68

16

118

56

23

143

779

24

0

2,351

211

158

0

0

0

-404

6,226

497

2,557

16,41360,265

202

2,173

1,356

1,021

917

1,824

415

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

132,854

434

3,295

45,50632,371

-31

2,083

1,536

680

1,492

2,733

624

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

160,501

331

1,740

6,400

20,758

51

1,103

657

540

303

1,622

537

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

56,868

38

454

3,181

4,953

-133

447

170

204

90

372

191

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

34,7742,012

32,31089,690200,456

230

18,436

8,227

10,096

5,795

10,4896,226

226,083

65,077

93,232-14,857

199,837

54,961-191,892-3,106-9,291-35,045

1,296,685

45
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

INPUT- OUTPUT DATA OF 2015
Crops

Livestock

Forestry

Fishery

Coal andligniteminingPetroleum andNatural
gas

Ore

Food,
beverageandtobaccoproducts

Textileindustry

001

002

003

004

005

006

007

008

009

Paper
RubberPetroleIndustries Chemical
and
um
and
plastic
Industries
refineries
Printing
products

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nonmetallic
Products

Basic
Metal

Fabricated metal
products

Machinery

014

015

016

017

Other
ManufacElectricity
turingProducts

Gas
Pipeline

Water
supplysystem020

021

This roadmap of the net zero emissions 2050 (NZE2050) pathway is the joint effort by the researchteam of Thammasat University and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan.
The research team has constructed this roadmap to climate resilient Thailand for use as a basis of

010

011

012

013

018

019

Crops

001

3,118

378

15

14

0

0

0

17,422

1

6

217

0

3,317

0

0

0

0

20

11

0

Livestock

002

26

636

0

0

0

0

0

6,773

73

0

39

0

0

0

0

0

0

43

0

0

Forestry

003

1

3

22

0

0

0

6

80

0

96

60

0

0

3

0

0

2

783

9

0

Fishery

004

0

82

0

287

0

0

0

2,005

0

0

97

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

Coal andlignite

005

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

45

0

0

248

160

0

0

0

1,206

0

Petroleumand Natural

006

0

0

0

0

0

443

0

0

0

0

188

24,518

0

0

0

0

0

0

3,200

9,758

Ore

007

17

2

0

1

0

6

4

114

0

10

277

0

4

1,937

694

5

75

343

1

0

Food,
beverage

008

9

2,937

0

745

0

0

0

12,499

8

37

483

5

26

18

0

0

2

349

59

0

Textileindustry

009

15

0

2

25

0

0

2

22

7,010

6

218

0

230

15

2

5

204

495

6

0

Paper
Industries

010

18

2

1

0

0

4

2

275

81

2,446

159

10

65

94

9

37

533

159

20

7

ChemicalIndustries

011

3,573

218

3

56

0

16

120

776

1,413

593

9,854

1,002

6,279

1,098

169

379

4,031

1,135

54

3

Petroleumrefineries

012

898

53

11

877

47

1,446

254

593

235

50

1,722

895

296

445

393

103

1,618

203

2,220

46

Rubber andplastic

013

253

52

3

85

0

9

22

861

261

107

376

24

1,712

48

12

135

4,295

779

12

0

Nonmetallic

014

19

4

5

6

0

0

1

451

0

0

90

0

0

1,826

5

56

1,333

351

0

0

Basic Metal

015

5

0

0

0

0

0

1

16

0

9

4

0

29

269

3,840

5,350

17,996

5,363

0

0

Fabricated
metal

016

304

26

23

1

0

0

65

1,508

83

39

114

3

100

29

31

615

2,786

284

33

80

Machinery

017

439

27

22

155

12

326

303

540

194

97

329

120

212

169

64

123

63,649

309

822

126

Other
Manufac-

018

141

14

4

6

0

26

12

23

318

23

52

2

36

28

11

64

693

10,136

14

8

Electricity

019

119

109

1

14

3

85

65

1,680

1,204

193

684

153

902

701

433

218

2,846

611

810

153

Gas
Pipeline

020

4

1

0

1

0

0

15

195

23

9

1,010

485

32

176

28

22

176

17

5,662

2,828

Water

021

55

17

0

0

0

0

2

101

14

9

37

4

12

14

2

3

64

14

2

7

Construc-

022

20

28

0

3

0

2

4

40

11

7

24

3

13

11

4

10

66

16

23

6

Trade

023

2,315

563

13

312

7

200

107

4,013

1,439

967

2,298

338

1,870

642

230

588

14,605

4,114

544

79
865

Services

024

1,070

160

18

106

4

2,148

98

1,936

593

280

1,119

270

604

676

203

250

2,924

1,092

1,340

Railways

025

2

1

0

1

0

0

0

10

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

19

2

9

0

Road
Transport

026

264

45

3

21

73

23

94

605

166

103

316

54

242

182

37

100

903

260

99

27

Water
Transport

027

83

12

1

20

0

10

40

114

9

30

32

7

41

109

5

14

228

35

9

0

Air
Transport

028

7

2

0

0

0

28

4

49

18

7

34

3

25

11

6

14

121

74

18

14

Other
Transport

029

6

0

0

0

0

0

2

240

100

11

129

19

112

66

22

21

240

94

1

0

Communication

030

167

7

0

1

1

8

7

53

29

19

65

16

45

38

13

22

269

119

47

43

Unclassified

031

23

11

0

20

0

13

3

351

102

62

153

6

46

127

45

31

373

75

64

54

Wages and

201

7,799

966

220

570

69

2,190

475

5,311

1,959

645

2,942

541

1,478

1,199

638

921

8,435

3,631

4,428

795

Operating202

14,817

2,999

216

1,750

159

2,610

920

8,754

2,434

953

4,118

687

2,013

1,802

836

1,583

14,388

3,730

3,235

1,774

Deprecia-

203

1,055

189

19

324

13

1,729

162

2,415

903

346

1,318

756

945

791

237

332

5,447

1,272

3,224

1,351

Indirect
Taxes less

204

-335

25

13

6

7

1,577

41

7,264

547

213

885

4,598

560

316

238

255

7,045

800

485

266

Control
Total

210

36,308

9,569

619

5,409

397

12,8992,829

77,08819,231

7,372

29,48634,52021,246

13,092

8,369

11,255

155,365

36,711

27,665

18,290Note: 1 USD is equal to 36.158 Baht, exchange rate as of 23 November 2022 (BOT, 2022).

44
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

discussion on climate resilient development and sustainable Thailand.

The methodology involves i) assessment of the current GHG emission inventory and national plans
related climate change mitigation, ii) quantification of socio-economic activity level in 2050
according to available information from Thailand’s office of the National Economic and Social
Development Council (NESDC), iii) deployment of climate friendly actions and technologies, andiv) development of a roadmap for the net zero emissions 2050 by using the AIM model.
The AIM/Enduse is employed for technology selection under the given constraints to meetthe net zero emissions by 2050 in the 1.5-degree pathways (see Fig. 1) while a computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model, named “AIM/CGE”, is employed to evaluate the macro-economic impacts

of arriving at net zero emissions by 2050, compared to Thailand’s baseline in the 2-degree reference(2DREF) pathways (see Table 1). Results imply that early implementation of climate change
adaptation and mitigation could avoid the long-term loss and damage.

Fig. 1 Thailand’s 1.5-degree pathway for net zero emissions 2050 (NZE2050)

1
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe NZE2050 is estimated based on i) the baseline in the 2-degree pathways of Thailand, andii) 2050 GHG mitigation measures for the climate resilient Thailand of employed green technologies
and energy efficiency improvement as well as the potential to reduce GHG emissions by measuresavailable during 2020-2050 such as behavior changes, battery electric vehicles, renewable energy
with energy storage, green hydrogen, carbon capture & storage (CCS), carbon capture utilization,and storage (CCUS), and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS).
In this study, only selected GHG mitigation options, which have been found to be cost effective, areincluded in the NZE2050. The proposed NZE2050 roadmap for sustainable Thailand revealsi) a peak GHG emission from sources of 390 MtCO 2eq in 2025, and ii) the net zero GHG emissions
by 2050.

This study has constructed a multi sector, dynamic recursive Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/
Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model, which was developed to analyze the climatechange mitigation and its impact of Thailand considering the input-output data of 2015 for the

analysis. As the strength of the AIM/CGE models throughout an economic top-down approach are toevaluate economy-related policies, this type of modeling tool has been widely adopted to assess the
economic and environmental impacts of various energy and climate policies at the global, national,
and sub-national levels.

The CGE model includes thefollowing blocks: production,
government and householdincomeandexpenditurelocks, and a foreign trade

Table. 1

block considering both the

Macro-economic impacts of NZE2050

Macro-economic impacts
Cumulative GDP loss, compared to thebaseline or 2DREF
Sectoral GDP share
Services:
Industries:
Transport:
Others:domestic

Net zero emissions 2050
1.1% during 2020-2050

andinternationaltransactions. (Fig. 24)
Fig. 24: Framework of the AIM/CGE model

Increase from 51.4% in 2020 to 64.8% in 2050
Decrease from 41.2% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2050
Decrease from 7.3% in 2020 to 1.1% in 2050
Increase from 0.1% in 2020 to 1.7% in 2050

In addition, the available technology
proposed in this study obtained from
AIM/Enduse model, which is a bottom-up
technology model to select the optimum

Total consumption

Increase from 323 billion US$ in 2020 to 677
billion US$ in 2050

Household consumption

Increase from 239 billion US$ in 2020 to 272
billion US$ in 2050

when system cost is minimized under

Government consumption

Increase from 84 billion US$ in 2020 to 405 billion
US$ in 2050

demand, availability of energy supplies

Cumulative welfare loss

6.8% during 2020 to 2050

Carbon price

Increase to US$ 734 per tCO2eq towards 2050

2
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

technology systems

in an economy

constraints such as satisfaction of service

andtechnologies,

islinkedtothe

AIM/CGE model. (see Fig. 25)

Fig. 25: Linkages between the bottom-up AIM/
Enduse model and the top-down AIM/CGE model

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

10

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig. 2 shows the recommended GHG countermeasures in the NZE2050 roadmap in thebuildings, industries, transport, power generation, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land
use sectors. The actions are divided into short term (2020-2030), medium term (2030-2040) andlong term (2040-2050) periods since some GHG countermeasures cannot be implemented
earlier and need to wait for maturity of technologies such as green hydrogen, carbon capture &utilization (CCU), CCS and BECCS. On the supply side, renewable energy technologies andcleaner technologies would play crucial roles, while on the demand side not only energy efficientdevices and fuel switching but also behavior change could contribute to the net zero emissions
2050. Therefore, to achieve climate resilient Thailand towards 2050, these policy packages in the

NZE2050 roadmap must be planned at the early stage.

METHODOLOGY

Fig. 2 Policy package for NZE2050

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

1
ABOUT THAILAND

UNCERTAINTY OF FORESTSEQUESTRATIONGreenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions will play an increasingly important role in achieving
net zero emissions. The contribution of the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector

in Thailand to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 is estimated to be 120 MtCO2 in this study.
This estimation is derived based on the National Strategy (2018-2037) of Thailand. If the contributionof the LULUCF sector in CO2 emission mitigation is less than the estimated target, then larger
emission reductions would be required from other economic sectors to meet the net zero target.

This uncertainty may impact the socio-economic conditions causing further distortions of GDP andother macroeconomic indicators.
The uncertainty lies in the growth of carbon stock in the forests which can be at a lesser rate than
expected. This suggests that forest utilization practices with a focus on maintaining the long-term
carbon stock growth should be addressed. Furthermore, additional measures to minimize the risk
associated with drought conditions and forest fires are needed to sustain the forestry sector growth inorder to increase the carbon accumulation potential.

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

9
UNCERTAINTY OF FORESTRYSEQUESTRATIONGEOGRAPHY
Thailand is the world's 50th largest country in terms of total area, with a surface area ofapproximately 513,000 square kilometers (198,000 sq mi). Thailand lies in the heart of Southeast
Asia. It is bordered to the north by Myanmar and Laos, to the east by Laos and Cambodia, to thesouth by the Gulf of Thailand and Malaysia, and to the west by the Andaman Sea and the southern

extremity of Myanmar.

The country comprises 77 provinces that are further divided into districts, sub-districts and villages.
The largest city in Thailand is Bangkok, the capital and special administrative area, which is also

the country's center of political, commercial, industrial and cultural activities.

CLIMATE
Thailand enjoys a tropical climate which is influenced by seasonal monsoon winds. The southwest
monsoon, starting in May, brings a stream of warm moist air from the Indian Ocean towards Thailand,causing abundant rain over the country, especially the mountainous regions. The northeast

monsoon, starting in October, brings cold and dry air from the anticyclone in China over major partsof Thailand, especially the northern and northeastern parts which are located at higher latitude areas.

Regarding the data snapshots during the period from 1991 to 2020, Thailand’s mean annual

temperature is 26.86°C, with a seasonal temperature variation of 5.7°C (Fig. 3) (The World Bank
Group & The Asian Development Bank, 2021). The mean annual precipitation is 1,593.42 mm.
The mean annual temperature in 2021 is higher than in 1901 around 0.3°C (Fig. 4) (World Bank
Group, 2021).

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

LINKAGES TO SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
We have set ourselves the target to achieve the net zero GHG emissions including the linkages
between the NZE2050 roadmap and the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Thailand has

performed well in SDG achievement. Thus, the NZE2050 roadmap could help accelerating
the progress of SDG achievement. Under Thailand’s NZE2050 roadmap, several SDGs are
identified: good health and well-being (SDG3), gender equality (SDG5), affordable and clean energy(SDG7), decent work and economic growth (SDG8), industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG9),

sustainable cities and communities (SDG10), responsible consumption and production (SDG12),
climate action (SDG13), life below water (SDG14), life on land (SDG15), and partnerships for thecoals (SDG17).
Source: World Bank Group

Fig. 3 Monthly climatology of temperature and precipitation : 1991-2020

Source: World Bank Group

Fig. 4 Observed mean annual temperature of Thailand: 1901-2021

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

8

BIODIVERSITY

T

hailand is one of the most biodiversity-rich countries in Southeast Asia. With
15 mountain ranges throughout the country, the watersheds and main river basinsconnected to the Mekong River, Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea form a juncture of
distribution for various plant species. Thailand contains around 15,000 plant species,

representing 8% of the world’s total. Forest area covers at least 33% of the country’s total area, withat least 18% comprised of conserved forests.

Thailand possesses unique coastal and marine biodiversity. Along the coastline, mangrove forests

comprise approximately 36% of the coastline. At present, only a few lush beach forests exist in
Thailand, most of which are located in the national marine parks. Thailand derives large benefits fromecosystems. In particular, the country recognizes the important environmental role performed by

LINKAGES BETWEENNZE2050 AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS

watersheds, river basins and coastal areas, as well as their significance in supporting livelihoods

linked to fisheries, recreation and tourism, among many others. (UNEP, n.d.)7Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

2

WELFARE LOSSThe drastic decline in the household consumption would lead to a sharp increase in the welfare
losses in the NZE2050 pathway. (see Table 2) The cumulative welfare loss would reach 6.8% in the
NZE2050 pathway during 2020 to 2050. The cumulative welfare losses would be 7.6% when takenover a period between the peak emissions occurring in 2025 and net zero emissions in 2050.

The steeper GHG emission reductions towards 2050 would cause a larger welfare loss of about 8.9%
during 2030-2050.
Table. 2

Macro-economic impacts of the NZE2050% Loss in cumulative terms compared to the 2DREF baseline
2020-2050

2025-2050

2030-2050

6.8

7.6

8.9

GHG PRICESThe prices of carbon or the GHG mitigation costs presented in Fig. 23 reflect the stringency of
mitigation requirements to achieve the NZE2050 pathway for Thailand. The price of carbon would

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CIRCUMSTANCES

vary substantially across both pathways. The level of technology introduction and selections lead to awide variation in the prices of carbon among both pathways. The carbon price would shoot up toreach US$ 734 per tCO2eq towards 2050 to attain net-zero emissions in the NZE2050 pathway.

Fig. 23 Variations in carbon prices

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

pathway during 2020 to 2050. It should be noted that the government usually increases spending

Over the last four decades, Thailand has made remarkable progress inwhen the economy is in recession or downturn in order to boost economic activities and regulate thesocial and economic development, moving from a low-income to an upper

economy.

middle-income country in less than a generation.

The total consumption, including both the household and government consumption would undergo

in 2050. (see Fig. 22) In cumulative terms, the total consumption during 2020-2050 would be

POPULATION

declined by 1.5% in the NZE2050 pathway. Results show that the total consumption would be

From 1950 to 2022, the population of Thailand increased from 21.71 to 70.18 million people.

declined by 11.7% in 2050 under the NZE2050 pathway. The decline in the household consumption

The yearly growth rate is around 0.25%. Around 52% of the population in Thailand lives in urban area

pattern of goods and services mainly occurring in the industries and the transport sector is the major(Worldometer, 2021).

more than two folds increase in the 2DREF, i.e., from 323 billion US$ in 2020 to 767 billion US$

cause behind the fall in the total consumption around 2050.
The Human Capital Index (HCI) measures the amount of human capital that a child born today
can expect to attain by age 18. A child born in Thailand today will be 61% as productive(World Bank Group, 2020).

Thailand’s population during 2015-2040 is estimated to gradually increase until 2030 and thendecline afterwards (NESDC, 2019). The declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy has
shaped Thailand’s population structure into an “ageing society” over the years. Based on suchparadigm, the population of Thailand is estimated to reach 66.6 million in 2050 from 68.1 million
in 2015, declining at a compound annual growth rate of 0.06% during the period of 2015-2050 (seeFig. 5). The statistics shows a decline in the percentage of working age population (15 to 59 years)
from 65.7% to 64.4% during 2015 to 2019 (NSO, 2020). To account for the future labor factor growth,
the working age population in this study is assumed to follow the trend of declining population growth.
Fig. 22 Total consumption in the 2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways.

Fig. 5 Population during 2015-2050 using in this analysis

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

9
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS

HOUSEHOLD AND

Thailand’s GDP is estimated to rise at an average growth rate of 2.71% during 2015 to 2050. Due to

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION

the coronavirus pandemic during 2020-2022, Thailand’s GDP shrunk by 6.1% in 2020, making it thelowest expansion rate over the past 10 years. In the long run, however, it is expected that theIn the 2DREF, the household final consumption expenditure representing consumer spending would

economic growth would gradually increase (Fig. 6).

increase from 239 billion US$ in 2020 to 472 billion US$ in 2050, i.e., an increase of two-folds during

the period (see Fig. 21 (a)). The GHG mitigation pathways following the NZE2050 pathway would
lead to a major decline in the household consumption towards 2050. The household consumption
would decline by 3.6% in 2030 to 42.4% in 2050 in the NZE2050 pathway. The cumulative drop in thehousehold consumption during 2020-2050 is estimated to be 8.2% in the NZE2050 pathway whencompared to the 2DREF baseline.

Fig. 6 GDP during 2015-2050 used in this analysis

SHARED SOCIO-ECONOMIC(a) Household consumption(b) Government consumption

PATHWAYS

Fig. 21 Household and government consumptions in the 2DREF and NZE2050 pathways

The Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways (SSPs)

The government consumption would increase by more than three-folds during 2020 to 2050 in the

explain a set of alternative plausible trajectories

2DREF, i.e., from 84 billion US$ in 2020 to 295 billion US$ in 2050. (see Fig. 21 (b)) The governmentof societal development, based on hypotheses

consumption would undergo an increase of more than five-folds in the NZE2050 pathway by 2050.

about which societal elements are the most

In cumulative terms, the government consumption would be needed to increase by 13.1% in theimportant determinants of challenges for climate

NZE2050 pathway.

change mitigation and adaptation (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7 Five SSPs representing different combinations of

10
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

challenges for mitigation and adaptation

35
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

The industries and service sectors occupy the major share in the national GDP of Thailand in both the
2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways. (see Fig. 20) Together they accounted for about 93% to
96% share during 2020 to 2050 respectively in the 2DREF. By 2050, together they would account for

more than 97% share in the NZE2050 pathway. Besides these sectors, the agriculture and forestry,transport and electricity sectors are the other major sectors in the total national GDP of Thailand.

Currently, Thailand is in the SSP4, referring to the inequality
pathway, which determines the medium challenge for mitigation but

high challenge for adaptation (Limmeechokchai, Winyuchakrit, Pita,
Misila, & Kanbua, 2020). However, to achieve the goal of net zero
emissions 2050, a large endeavor on mitigation and adaptation are
required to step up the socio-economic from the inequity (SSP4) to thesustainability (SSP1) pathways.

Fig. 20 Sectoral shares of GDP in the 2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways in selected years.

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

11
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

3

GDP
The GDP of Thailand would undergo an increase by more than two-folds during 2020 to 2050 in thebaseline or the 2DREF, i.e., from 428 billion US$ in 2020 to 1003 billion US$ in 2050. (see Fig. 19 (a))
There is a possibility of attaining the net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic
loss for Thailand.

The economic losses tend to increase with the level of increased GHG mitigation. The Thai economy
would be able to reach the level of GHG mitigation in 2025 without any economic losses and would
see a GDP gain of 0.8% in 2035 in the NZE2050 pathway. While in 2030, 2040, and 2045, the GDP

losses would vary by 0.3%, 0.4% and 1.6% respectively. However, by 2050, the GDP loss would be
as high as 8.5% in the NZE2050 pathway. (see Fig. 19 (b)) However, in cumulative terms the GDP
loss during 2020-2050 would be 1.1 percent in the NZE2050 pathway. The cumulative economic loss
in the NZE2050 pathway is attributed with introduction of the CCS technologies in 2040 and the

NATIONAL
EMISSIONS

cost-effectiveness of energy efficient and emerging technologies.

(a) GDP(b) GDP loss

Fig. 19 Impacts of NZE2050 on GDP

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

7

By

2016,

Thailand was ranked 22nd globally in term of CO2 emissions andsecond highest emitter in Southeast Asia, producing 0.76 percent of global emissions or
271 MtCO 2. This corresponds to a per capita CO2 emission rate of 3.93, which is lower than the

global rate of 4.79 tons per capita (Worldometer, n.d.)

Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Thailand increase from 245,899.56 GgCO 2eq in 2000
to 372,648.77 GgCO 2eq in 2018, with an average annual increase by 2.34%. The CO 2 removals
increase from 45,443.60 GgCO2 in 2000 to 85,968.30 GgCO 2 in 2018. (see Fig. 8)

Therefore, the net GHG emissions are 200,455.96 GgCO2eq in 2000 and 286,680.47 GgCO 2eq
in 2018, with an average annual increase of 2.01%.

MACRO-ECONOMIC
IMPACTS

Source: Thailand’s Fourth National Communication (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 8 Trend of GHG emissions and removals in Thailand: 2000-2018

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

The energy sector has been the main sources of GHG emissions while the Land Use, Land Use
Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) plays an important role on CO 2 removals of Thailand. Shares of
GHG emissions from the energy sector increase from about 67% (in 2000) to 69% (in 2018) of total

CEMENT CLINKER

emissions in the respective years. (see Fig. 9)

SUBSTITUTION

Methane, one of the important GHGs, is mainly emitted from the agricultural sector, which is the

In 2018, IPPU sector is the third largest contributor (10.77%) of GHG emissions in Thailand, following

second largest contributor of GHG emissions in Thailand. However, its share decreases from about

the energy and agriculture. Cement production is responsible for almost a half of GHG emissions

20% (in 2000) to 16% (in 2018) of total emissions in the respective years.

from the IPPU sector.

The remaining emissions are emitted from the Industrial Processes and Product use (IPPU) together

The largest source of GHG emissions from cement manufacturing is due to the chemical processwith the waste sectors. Emissions from both sectors are increase. An aggregated share increases

associated with clinker production. Clinker is the main constituent of the cements. Replacing afrom about 13% (in 2000) to 15% (in 2018) of total emissions in the respective years.

portion of clinker with other cementitious materials, for example slag, fly ash, waste materials orindustrial by-products has the potential to realize substantial emissions reductions.

Currently, the Australian Standard indicates that an increase to 12% of mineral addition has thepotential to reduce emissions from cement industry by around 5% or 250,000 tons annually (CIF,
2021).

Source: Thailand’s Fourth National Communication (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 9 Sectoral GHG emissions in 2000 and 201814
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

31
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

ADVANCED CULTIVATION
In 2018, agriculture is the second largest GHG emitting sector (15.69%) in Thailand. Thai ricecultivation is responsible for more than 50% of Thailand’s emission from Agricultural sector, mainly
from Methane.

Thai Rice NAMA, funded by NAMA Facility, is a joint project to implement low-emission rice farming
and make mitigation services and technologies accessible to farmers (Henriksen, 2022) by using theconcept of sustainable rice production and mitigation technologies.

The concept of sustainable rice production and mitigation technologies involves four technologies
plus one activity. The four technologies include (1) laser land levelling, (2) alternative wetting anddrying, (3) site specific nutrient management, and (4) straw and stubble management. In addition, alltechnologies are implemented by integrating with pest management to defense and eliminate rice

pests (GIZ, 2022).

30
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

4
ROLE OF THAILAND
ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Thailand is a non-Annex I party, which realizes the seriousness of climate change
problem intensely. Thailand became a Party to UNFCCC since 1991 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in
2002 and the Paris Agreement in 2016.

NATIONALLY APPROPRIATEMITIGATION ACTIONS
Although the main objective of Kyoto Protocol is to push the developed countries to reduce their GHG
emissions, Thailand had endeavored to reduce its emissions as a voluntary during 2010-2020
through the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, called NAMAs.

In 2014, Thailand submitted its NAMAs to UNFCCC, pledging to reduce its GHG emissions in energy
and transportation sectors by 7%-20% from the projected business as usual (BAU) level by 2020.

GREEN HYDROGEN
Hydrogen is high in energy and clean fuel. A fuel cell, working likes batteries, combines hydrogen andoxygen to produce electricity, heat, and water with high efficiency and low power losses.

There are three types of hydrogen: grey, blue, and green hydrogen. Grey hydrogen, which is the mostcommon form of hydrogen, is created from fossil fuels without the CO2 captured process. Blue
hydrogen uses the same process as grey, but CO2 is captured and stored. Green hydrogen is
produced from renewable energy sources, i.e., solar, wind, etc.

Vision of the future is a net-zero world where all our electricity and fuel is produced by emission-freesources. Green hydrogen could also join as an important energy carrier that moves and delivers
energy in a usable form to consumers. (see Fig. 18)

The target of 7% GHG mitigation in 2020 is intended to be achieved using domestic resources, while
additional emission reduction up to 20% is subject to sufficient international support under
the UNFCCC. By 2020, Thailand achieved its NAMAs target of 64.20 MtCO 2eq, or accounted for
15% of GHG mitigation (see Fig. 10).

Fig. 18 Examples of green hydrogen application
Source: Climate Change Management and Coordination (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 10 Achievement of Thailand’s NAMA implementation

16
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

29
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

CARBON CAPTURE,

NATIONALLY DETERMINEDUTILIZATION AND STORAGE

CONTRIBUTIONS

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) involve the CO 2

As a member of Paris Agreement, Thailand submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution

storage deep underground in geological formations, i.e., aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon (oil and(NDC) to UNFCCC in 2015, with the target of 20% to 25% reduction, compared to its BAU in 2030.

gas) reservoirs.
However, Thailand intends to improve their emission reduction to 40%, with the target of 30%,
CCS/CCU, which are emerging and stimulating technology, are important emissions reduction

compared to its BAU in 2030, using domestic efforts, called “unconditional NDC”. The level oftechnology that can be applied across the energy system, for example power generation andcontribution could increase up to 40%, subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology

industries to reach the target of net zero emissions.

development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support through a balanced andambitious global agreement under UNFCCC, called “conditional NDC”. (Fig. 11)

There are three step processes, involving (1) capturing the CO 2 from power generation or industries,
such as steel or cement making, (2) transporting it via trucks, ship, and pipeline, and then (3.1)

storing it in deep underground or (3.2) utilizing it through industrial process producing more valuable
products. (see Fig. 17)

Fig. 17 Processes of CCS and CCU technologies

Source: ONEP (2021)

Fig. 11 Thailand’s second updated NDC

28
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

17
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

NATIONAL LONG-TERM

ELECTRIC VEHICLESSTRATEGYElectric vehicles (EVs) are mode of transport that is powered by electricity. Unlike conventional

In 2021, Thailand submitted its first Mid-century, Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission

electric motor powered by electricity from batteries, called battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

vehicles using an internal combustion engine (ICE) that consumes gasoline or diesel, EVs use an

Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), with the aims to peak its GHG emissions in 2030 and to movetowards net-zero GHG emissions as early as possible within the second half of this century, and

EVs are an environmentally friendly alternative to ICE vehicles, with more less air pollution. EVs aretowards carbon neutrality by 2065.

typically produce lower tailpipe emissions that the conventional; however, when measuringwell-to-wheel emissions, EVs may not demonstrate a strong well-to-wheel emissions benefit in the

However, in 2022, Thailand revised and updated its Long-term Strategy (LTS), with the aims tocase that energy sources for electricity generation contain high carbon content.

achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and move towards to net-zero GHG emissions by 2065.
(see Fig. 12)

As of June 2022, the accumulated number of registered BEVs is 18,644 mostly in motorcycle (58%)
and car (38%). However, EVs market of Thailand is expanded rapidly in the past few years. During
the period of 2018 to 2022, average annual growth rate of the registered BEVs is almost 90%. (seeFig. 16)

Source: EVAT (2022)

Fig. 16 Accumulated number of registered EVs in Thailand (EVAT, 2022)
Source: Thailand’s revised LT-LEDS, (UNFCCC, 2022)

Fig. 12 Thailand’s updated Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

27
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

RENEWABLE ENERGY
Tier 3 of the energy saving pyramid is using of renewable energy, substituting for the conventional
fuels that contain high content of carbon. Efficient renewable energy is not only drive moresustainable, reliable, and affordable energy systems but also perform a key strategic role towards
a low carbon future.

Renewable energy development in Thailand, including solar, wind, small and large hydropower,
biomass, biogas, biofuels and municipal solid wastes (MSW) has been promoted for decades.
With a more aggressive development plan, Thailand’s renewable energy sources could reach morethan 30% over the time frame of 2037 (DEDE, 2020).

52-DEGREE BASELINEAND
NZE2050 PATHWAY

26
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

The two-degree pathway in the baseline of Thailand assumes aggressive efforts to reduce GHG
emissions in line with the global temperature stabilization target of limiting the temperature rise to
2°C. The global emission trajectory consistent with the probability of limiting the temperature

increase to 2°C is taken from the SSP Database for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway -1 (SSP1)
scenario. The average value obtained from the six integrated assessment models for SSP1 scenario
for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) to reach radiative forcing target of 2.6 W/m 2 isused for representing the emission allowances allocated to Thailand to attain the 2°C target.
Furthermore, a GHG emission reduction is accelerated to 25% in 2030 and declining afterwards tomeet the emission allowances allocated to Thailand to attain 2°C target in 2050.

To investigate the socioeconomic impacts of the NZE2050, the baseline or two-degree pathway
shown in Fig. 13 is employed as the “reference”, named “2DREF", using to compare with the net zero
emissions 2050. In the two-degree pathway, emissions would reach to peak at 390 MtCO 2eq by 2030
and slightly decrease to 340 MtCO2eq in 2050. The possibility for Thailand to attain an emissions
peak in 2030 would be compatible with the global stringent target of maintaining the temperature at or
below 2°C by 2100.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
IMPROVEMENT
Energy efficiency simply means using less energy to provide the same tasks or services. Energy
efficiency is one of the energy saving schemes that can play an important role to reduce the GHG

released into the atmosphere. Tier 1, called energy conservation, of the energy saving pyramid bases
on behavioral and operational changes, attaining the best return on investment.

The middle of the pyramid, called energy efficiency, bases on the purchasing or installing efficientequipment and processes, replacing the existing ones. Benefits of energy efficiency improvement are
not only reducing energy demand but also cost on household and economy wide and GHG
emissions.

There are enormous opportunities for energy efficiency improvement in every sector of the economy.
For example, building designs thru building efficiency, i.e., choosing LED light bulbs and insulation,
incorporating into renewable energy technologies can lead to the creation of zero-energy buildings.
Efficient vehicles require less fuels and emit less CO2.

Fig. 13 The two-degree pathway of Thailand or 2DREF

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

25
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

6

The net-zero emission 2050 (NZE2050) pathway is constructed in this study considering
the introduction of both fossil fuel based and biomass-based carbon capture and storage
technologies (CCS) after 2040. Besides, several energy efficient and emerging technologies are

considered. In the net zero GHG emissions 2050 pathway, emissions would reach to peak at
388 MtCO2eq in 2025 and sharply decrease to 120 MtCO2eq in 2050 (Fig. 14). Disaggregatedemission profile by sector is shown in Fig. 15, indicating that the most emission reduction happens in
the Energy sector.

TECHNOLOGYENGAGEMENT IN
NZE2050

Fig. 14 GHG Emissions Profile (excluding LULUCF) in “2DREF” and “NZE2050” pathways

21
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

NZE2050
TECHNOLOGYROADMAP6

The net-zero emission 2050 (NZE2050) pathway is constructed in this study considering
the introduction of both fossil fuel based and biomass-based carbon capture and storage
technologies (CCS) after 2040. Besides, several energy efficient and emerging technologies are

considered. In the net zero GHG emissions 2050 pathway, emissions would reach to peak at
388 MtCO2eq in 2025 and sharply decrease to 120 MtCO2eq in 2050 (Fig. 14). Disaggregatedemission profile by sector is shown in Fig. 15, indicating that the most emission reduction happens in
the Energy sector.

TECHNOLOGYENGAGEMENT IN
NZE2050

Fig. 14 GHG Emissions Profile (excluding LULUCF) in “2DREF” and “NZE2050” pathways

21
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

The two-degree pathway in the baseline of Thailand assumes aggressive efforts to reduce GHG
emissions in line with the global temperature stabilization target of limiting the temperature rise to
2°C. The global emission trajectory consistent with the probability of limiting the temperature

increase to 2°C is taken from the SSP Database for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway -1 (SSP1)
scenario. The average value obtained from the six integrated assessment models for SSP1 scenario
for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) to reach radiative forcing target of 2.6 W/m 2 isused for representing the emission allowances allocated to Thailand to attain the 2°C target.
Furthermore, a GHG emission reduction is accelerated to 25% in 2030 and declining afterwards tomeet the emission allowances allocated to Thailand to attain 2°C target in 2050.

To investigate the socioeconomic impacts of the NZE2050, the baseline or two-degree pathway
shown in Fig. 13 is employed as the “reference”, named “2DREF", using to compare with the net zero
emissions 2050. In the two-degree pathway, emissions would reach to peak at 390 MtCO 2eq by 2030
and slightly decrease to 340 MtCO2eq in 2050. The possibility for Thailand to attain an emissions
peak in 2030 would be compatible with the global stringent target of maintaining the temperature at or
below 2°C by 2100.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
IMPROVEMENT
Energy efficiency simply means using less energy to provide the same tasks or services. Energy
efficiency is one of the energy saving schemes that can play an important role to reduce the GHG

released into the atmosphere. Tier 1, called energy conservation, of the energy saving pyramid bases
on behavioral and operational changes, attaining the best return on investment.

The middle of the pyramid, called energy efficiency, bases on the purchasing or installing efficientequipment and processes, replacing the existing ones. Benefits of energy efficiency improvement are
not only reducing energy demand but also cost on household and economy wide and GHG
emissions.

There are enormous opportunities for energy efficiency improvement in every sector of the economy.
For example, building designs thru building efficiency, i.e., choosing LED light bulbs and insulation,
incorporating into renewable energy technologies can lead to the creation of zero-energy buildings.
Efficient vehicles require less fuels and emit less CO2.

Fig. 13 The two-degree pathway of Thailand or 2DREF

20
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

25
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

RENEWABLE ENERGY
Tier 3 of the energy saving pyramid is using of renewable energy, substituting for the conventional
fuels that contain high content of carbon. Efficient renewable energy is not only drive moresustainable, reliable, and affordable energy systems but also perform a key strategic role towards
a low carbon future.

Renewable energy development in Thailand, including solar, wind, small and large hydropower,
biomass, biogas, biofuels and municipal solid wastes (MSW) has been promoted for decades.
With a more aggressive development plan, Thailand’s renewable energy sources could reach morethan 30% over the time frame of 2037 (DEDE, 2020).

52-DEGREE BASELINEAND
NZE2050 PATHWAY

26
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

NATIONAL LONG-TERM

ELECTRIC VEHICLESSTRATEGYElectric vehicles (EVs) are mode of transport that is powered by electricity. Unlike conventional

In 2021, Thailand submitted its first Mid-century, Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission

electric motor powered by electricity from batteries, called battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

vehicles using an internal combustion engine (ICE) that consumes gasoline or diesel, EVs use an

Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), with the aims to peak its GHG emissions in 2030 and to movetowards net-zero GHG emissions as early as possible within the second half of this century, and

EVs are an environmentally friendly alternative to ICE vehicles, with more less air pollution. EVs aretowards carbon neutrality by 2065.

typically produce lower tailpipe emissions that the conventional; however, when measuringwell-to-wheel emissions, EVs may not demonstrate a strong well-to-wheel emissions benefit in the

However, in 2022, Thailand revised and updated its Long-term Strategy (LTS), with the aims tocase that energy sources for electricity generation contain high carbon content.

achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and move towards to net-zero GHG emissions by 2065.
(see Fig. 12)

As of June 2022, the accumulated number of registered BEVs is 18,644 mostly in motorcycle (58%)
and car (38%). However, EVs market of Thailand is expanded rapidly in the past few years. During
the period of 2018 to 2022, average annual growth rate of the registered BEVs is almost 90%. (seeFig. 16)

Source: EVAT (2022)

Fig. 16 Accumulated number of registered EVs in Thailand (EVAT, 2022)
Source: Thailand’s revised LT-LEDS, (UNFCCC, 2022)

Fig. 12 Thailand’s updated Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

27
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

CARBON CAPTURE,

NATIONALLY DETERMINEDUTILIZATION AND STORAGE

CONTRIBUTIONS

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) involve the CO 2

As a member of Paris Agreement, Thailand submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution

storage deep underground in geological formations, i.e., aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon (oil and(NDC) to UNFCCC in 2015, with the target of 20% to 25% reduction, compared to its BAU in 2030.

gas) reservoirs.
However, Thailand intends to improve their emission reduction to 40%, with the target of 30%,
CCS/CCU, which are emerging and stimulating technology, are important emissions reduction

compared to its BAU in 2030, using domestic efforts, called “unconditional NDC”. The level oftechnology that can be applied across the energy system, for example power generation andcontribution could increase up to 40%, subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology

industries to reach the target of net zero emissions.

development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support through a balanced andambitious global agreement under UNFCCC, called “conditional NDC”. (Fig. 11)

There are three step processes, involving (1) capturing the CO 2 from power generation or industries,
such as steel or cement making, (2) transporting it via trucks, ship, and pipeline, and then (3.1)

storing it in deep underground or (3.2) utilizing it through industrial process producing more valuable
products. (see Fig. 17)

Fig. 17 Processes of CCS and CCU technologies

Source: ONEP (2021)

Fig. 11 Thailand’s second updated NDC

28
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

17
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

Thailand is a non-Annex I party, which realizes the seriousness of climate change
problem intensely. Thailand became a Party to UNFCCC since 1991 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in
2002 and the Paris Agreement in 2016.

NATIONALLY APPROPRIATEMITIGATION ACTIONS
Although the main objective of Kyoto Protocol is to push the developed countries to reduce their GHG
emissions, Thailand had endeavored to reduce its emissions as a voluntary during 2010-2020
through the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, called NAMAs.

In 2014, Thailand submitted its NAMAs to UNFCCC, pledging to reduce its GHG emissions in energy
and transportation sectors by 7%-20% from the projected business as usual (BAU) level by 2020.

GREEN HYDROGEN
Hydrogen is high in energy and clean fuel. A fuel cell, working likes batteries, combines hydrogen andoxygen to produce electricity, heat, and water with high efficiency and low power losses.

There are three types of hydrogen: grey, blue, and green hydrogen. Grey hydrogen, which is the mostcommon form of hydrogen, is created from fossil fuels without the CO2 captured process. Blue
hydrogen uses the same process as grey, but CO2 is captured and stored. Green hydrogen is
produced from renewable energy sources, i.e., solar, wind, etc.

Vision of the future is a net-zero world where all our electricity and fuel is produced by emission-freesources. Green hydrogen could also join as an important energy carrier that moves and delivers
energy in a usable form to consumers. (see Fig. 18)

The target of 7% GHG mitigation in 2020 is intended to be achieved using domestic resources, while
additional emission reduction up to 20% is subject to sufficient international support under
the UNFCCC. By 2020, Thailand achieved its NAMAs target of 64.20 MtCO 2eq, or accounted for
15% of GHG mitigation (see Fig. 10).

Fig. 18 Examples of green hydrogen application
Source: Climate Change Management and Coordination (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 10 Achievement of Thailand’s NAMA implementation

16
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

29
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

ADVANCED CULTIVATION
In 2018, agriculture is the second largest GHG emitting sector (15.69%) in Thailand. Thai ricecultivation is responsible for more than 50% of Thailand’s emission from Agricultural sector, mainly
from Methane.

Thai Rice NAMA, funded by NAMA Facility, is a joint project to implement low-emission rice farming
and make mitigation services and technologies accessible to farmers (Henriksen, 2022) by using theconcept of sustainable rice production and mitigation technologies.

The concept of sustainable rice production and mitigation technologies involves four technologies
plus one activity. The four technologies include (1) laser land levelling, (2) alternative wetting anddrying, (3) site specific nutrient management, and (4) straw and stubble management. In addition, alltechnologies are implemented by integrating with pest management to defense and eliminate rice

pests (GIZ, 2022).

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Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

4
ROLE OF THAILAND
ON CLIMATE CHANGE

The energy sector has been the main sources of GHG emissions while the Land Use, Land Use
Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) plays an important role on CO 2 removals of Thailand. Shares of
GHG emissions from the energy sector increase from about 67% (in 2000) to 69% (in 2018) of total

CEMENT CLINKER

emissions in the respective years. (see Fig. 9)

SUBSTITUTION

Methane, one of the important GHGs, is mainly emitted from the agricultural sector, which is the

In 2018, IPPU sector is the third largest contributor (10.77%) of GHG emissions in Thailand, following

second largest contributor of GHG emissions in Thailand. However, its share decreases from about

the energy and agriculture. Cement production is responsible for almost a half of GHG emissions

20% (in 2000) to 16% (in 2018) of total emissions in the respective years.

from the IPPU sector.

The remaining emissions are emitted from the Industrial Processes and Product use (IPPU) together

The largest source of GHG emissions from cement manufacturing is due to the chemical processwith the waste sectors. Emissions from both sectors are increase. An aggregated share increases

associated with clinker production. Clinker is the main constituent of the cements. Replacing afrom about 13% (in 2000) to 15% (in 2018) of total emissions in the respective years.

portion of clinker with other cementitious materials, for example slag, fly ash, waste materials orindustrial by-products has the potential to realize substantial emissions reductions.

Currently, the Australian Standard indicates that an increase to 12% of mineral addition has thepotential to reduce emissions from cement industry by around 5% or 250,000 tons annually (CIF,
2021).

Source: Thailand’s Fourth National Communication (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 9 Sectoral GHG emissions in 2000 and 201814
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

31
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

7

By

2016,

Thailand was ranked 22nd globally in term of CO2 emissions andsecond highest emitter in Southeast Asia, producing 0.76 percent of global emissions or
271 MtCO 2. This corresponds to a per capita CO2 emission rate of 3.93, which is lower than the

global rate of 4.79 tons per capita (Worldometer, n.d.)

Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Thailand increase from 245,899.56 GgCO 2eq in 2000
to 372,648.77 GgCO 2eq in 2018, with an average annual increase by 2.34%. The CO 2 removals
increase from 45,443.60 GgCO2 in 2000 to 85,968.30 GgCO 2 in 2018. (see Fig. 8)

Therefore, the net GHG emissions are 200,455.96 GgCO2eq in 2000 and 286,680.47 GgCO 2eq
in 2018, with an average annual increase of 2.01%.

MACRO-ECONOMIC
IMPACTS

Source: Thailand’s Fourth National Communication (ONEP, 2022)

Fig. 8 Trend of GHG emissions and removals in Thailand: 2000-2018

13
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

3

GDP
The GDP of Thailand would undergo an increase by more than two-folds during 2020 to 2050 in thebaseline or the 2DREF, i.e., from 428 billion US$ in 2020 to 1003 billion US$ in 2050. (see Fig. 19 (a))
There is a possibility of attaining the net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic
loss for Thailand.

The economic losses tend to increase with the level of increased GHG mitigation. The Thai economy
would be able to reach the level of GHG mitigation in 2025 without any economic losses and would
see a GDP gain of 0.8% in 2035 in the NZE2050 pathway. While in 2030, 2040, and 2045, the GDP

losses would vary by 0.3%, 0.4% and 1.6% respectively. However, by 2050, the GDP loss would be
as high as 8.5% in the NZE2050 pathway. (see Fig. 19 (b)) However, in cumulative terms the GDP
loss during 2020-2050 would be 1.1 percent in the NZE2050 pathway. The cumulative economic loss
in the NZE2050 pathway is attributed with introduction of the CCS technologies in 2040 and the

NATIONAL
EMISSIONS

cost-effectiveness of energy efficient and emerging technologies.

(a) GDP(b) GDP loss

Fig. 19 Impacts of NZE2050 on GDP

33
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

The industries and service sectors occupy the major share in the national GDP of Thailand in both the
2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways. (see Fig. 20) Together they accounted for about 93% to
96% share during 2020 to 2050 respectively in the 2DREF. By 2050, together they would account for

more than 97% share in the NZE2050 pathway. Besides these sectors, the agriculture and forestry,transport and electricity sectors are the other major sectors in the total national GDP of Thailand.

Currently, Thailand is in the SSP4, referring to the inequality
pathway, which determines the medium challenge for mitigation but

high challenge for adaptation (Limmeechokchai, Winyuchakrit, Pita,
Misila, & Kanbua, 2020). However, to achieve the goal of net zero
emissions 2050, a large endeavor on mitigation and adaptation are
required to step up the socio-economic from the inequity (SSP4) to thesustainability (SSP1) pathways.

Fig. 20 Sectoral shares of GDP in the 2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways in selected years.

34
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

11
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS

HOUSEHOLD AND

Thailand’s GDP is estimated to rise at an average growth rate of 2.71% during 2015 to 2050. Due to

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION

the coronavirus pandemic during 2020-2022, Thailand’s GDP shrunk by 6.1% in 2020, making it thelowest expansion rate over the past 10 years. In the long run, however, it is expected that theIn the 2DREF, the household final consumption expenditure representing consumer spending would

economic growth would gradually increase (Fig. 6).

increase from 239 billion US$ in 2020 to 472 billion US$ in 2050, i.e., an increase of two-folds during

the period (see Fig. 21 (a)). The GHG mitigation pathways following the NZE2050 pathway would
lead to a major decline in the household consumption towards 2050. The household consumption
would decline by 3.6% in 2030 to 42.4% in 2050 in the NZE2050 pathway. The cumulative drop in thehousehold consumption during 2020-2050 is estimated to be 8.2% in the NZE2050 pathway whencompared to the 2DREF baseline.

Fig. 6 GDP during 2015-2050 used in this analysis

SHARED SOCIO-ECONOMIC(a) Household consumption(b) Government consumption

PATHWAYS

Fig. 21 Household and government consumptions in the 2DREF and NZE2050 pathways

The Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways (SSPs)

The government consumption would increase by more than three-folds during 2020 to 2050 in the

explain a set of alternative plausible trajectories

2DREF, i.e., from 84 billion US$ in 2020 to 295 billion US$ in 2050. (see Fig. 21 (b)) The governmentof societal development, based on hypotheses

consumption would undergo an increase of more than five-folds in the NZE2050 pathway by 2050.

about which societal elements are the most

In cumulative terms, the government consumption would be needed to increase by 13.1% in theimportant determinants of challenges for climate

NZE2050 pathway.

change mitigation and adaptation (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7 Five SSPs representing different combinations of

10
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

challenges for mitigation and adaptation

35
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

pathway during 2020 to 2050. It should be noted that the government usually increases spending

Over the last four decades, Thailand has made remarkable progress inwhen the economy is in recession or downturn in order to boost economic activities and regulate thesocial and economic development, moving from a low-income to an upper

economy.

middle-income country in less than a generation.

The total consumption, including both the household and government consumption would undergo

in 2050. (see Fig. 22) In cumulative terms, the total consumption during 2020-2050 would be

POPULATION

declined by 1.5% in the NZE2050 pathway. Results show that the total consumption would be

From 1950 to 2022, the population of Thailand increased from 21.71 to 70.18 million people.

declined by 11.7% in 2050 under the NZE2050 pathway. The decline in the household consumption

The yearly growth rate is around 0.25%. Around 52% of the population in Thailand lives in urban area

pattern of goods and services mainly occurring in the industries and the transport sector is the major(Worldometer, 2021).

more than two folds increase in the 2DREF, i.e., from 323 billion US$ in 2020 to 767 billion US$

cause behind the fall in the total consumption around 2050.
The Human Capital Index (HCI) measures the amount of human capital that a child born today
can expect to attain by age 18. A child born in Thailand today will be 61% as productive(World Bank Group, 2020).

Thailand’s population during 2015-2040 is estimated to gradually increase until 2030 and thendecline afterwards (NESDC, 2019). The declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy has
shaped Thailand’s population structure into an “ageing society” over the years. Based on suchparadigm, the population of Thailand is estimated to reach 66.6 million in 2050 from 68.1 million
in 2015, declining at a compound annual growth rate of 0.06% during the period of 2015-2050 (seeFig. 5). The statistics shows a decline in the percentage of working age population (15 to 59 years)
from 65.7% to 64.4% during 2015 to 2019 (NSO, 2020). To account for the future labor factor growth,
the working age population in this study is assumed to follow the trend of declining population growth.
Fig. 22 Total consumption in the 2DREF and the NZE2050 pathways.

Fig. 5 Population during 2015-2050 using in this analysis

36
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

9
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

2

WELFARE LOSSThe drastic decline in the household consumption would lead to a sharp increase in the welfare
losses in the NZE2050 pathway. (see Table 2) The cumulative welfare loss would reach 6.8% in the
NZE2050 pathway during 2020 to 2050. The cumulative welfare losses would be 7.6% when takenover a period between the peak emissions occurring in 2025 and net zero emissions in 2050.

The steeper GHG emission reductions towards 2050 would cause a larger welfare loss of about 8.9%
during 2030-2050.
Table. 2

Macro-economic impacts of the NZE2050% Loss in cumulative terms compared to the 2DREF baseline
2020-2050

2025-2050

2030-2050

6.8

7.6

8.9

GHG PRICESThe prices of carbon or the GHG mitigation costs presented in Fig. 23 reflect the stringency of
mitigation requirements to achieve the NZE2050 pathway for Thailand. The price of carbon would

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CIRCUMSTANCES

vary substantially across both pathways. The level of technology introduction and selections lead to awide variation in the prices of carbon among both pathways. The carbon price would shoot up toreach US$ 734 per tCO2eq towards 2050 to attain net-zero emissions in the NZE2050 pathway.

Fig. 23 Variations in carbon prices

37
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

8

BIODIVERSITY

T

hailand is one of the most biodiversity-rich countries in Southeast Asia. With
15 mountain ranges throughout the country, the watersheds and main river basinsconnected to the Mekong River, Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea form a juncture of
distribution for various plant species. Thailand contains around 15,000 plant species,

representing 8% of the world’s total. Forest area covers at least 33% of the country’s total area, withat least 18% comprised of conserved forests.

Thailand possesses unique coastal and marine biodiversity. Along the coastline, mangrove forests

comprise approximately 36% of the coastline. At present, only a few lush beach forests exist in
Thailand, most of which are located in the national marine parks. Thailand derives large benefits fromecosystems. In particular, the country recognizes the important environmental role performed by

LINKAGES BETWEENNZE2050 AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS

watersheds, river basins and coastal areas, as well as their significance in supporting livelihoods

linked to fisheries, recreation and tourism, among many others. (UNEP, n.d.)7Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

LINKAGES TO SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
We have set ourselves the target to achieve the net zero GHG emissions including the linkages
between the NZE2050 roadmap and the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Thailand has

performed well in SDG achievement. Thus, the NZE2050 roadmap could help accelerating
the progress of SDG achievement. Under Thailand’s NZE2050 roadmap, several SDGs are
identified: good health and well-being (SDG3), gender equality (SDG5), affordable and clean energy(SDG7), decent work and economic growth (SDG8), industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG9),

sustainable cities and communities (SDG10), responsible consumption and production (SDG12),
climate action (SDG13), life below water (SDG14), life on land (SDG15), and partnerships for thecoals (SDG17).
Source: World Bank Group

Fig. 3 Monthly climatology of temperature and precipitation : 1991-2020

Source: World Bank Group

Fig. 4 Observed mean annual temperature of Thailand: 1901-2021

6
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

39
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

9
UNCERTAINTY OF FORESTRYSEQUESTRATIONGEOGRAPHY
Thailand is the world's 50th largest country in terms of total area, with a surface area ofapproximately 513,000 square kilometers (198,000 sq mi). Thailand lies in the heart of Southeast
Asia. It is bordered to the north by Myanmar and Laos, to the east by Laos and Cambodia, to thesouth by the Gulf of Thailand and Malaysia, and to the west by the Andaman Sea and the southern

extremity of Myanmar.

The country comprises 77 provinces that are further divided into districts, sub-districts and villages.
The largest city in Thailand is Bangkok, the capital and special administrative area, which is also

the country's center of political, commercial, industrial and cultural activities.

CLIMATE
Thailand enjoys a tropical climate which is influenced by seasonal monsoon winds. The southwest
monsoon, starting in May, brings a stream of warm moist air from the Indian Ocean towards Thailand,causing abundant rain over the country, especially the mountainous regions. The northeast

monsoon, starting in October, brings cold and dry air from the anticyclone in China over major partsof Thailand, especially the northern and northeastern parts which are located at higher latitude areas.

Regarding the data snapshots during the period from 1991 to 2020, Thailand’s mean annual

temperature is 26.86°C, with a seasonal temperature variation of 5.7°C (Fig. 3) (The World Bank
Group & The Asian Development Bank, 2021). The mean annual precipitation is 1,593.42 mm.
The mean annual temperature in 2021 is higher than in 1901 around 0.3°C (Fig. 4) (World Bank
Group, 2021).

5
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

1
ABOUT THAILAND

UNCERTAINTY OF FORESTSEQUESTRATIONGreenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions will play an increasingly important role in achieving
net zero emissions. The contribution of the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector

in Thailand to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 is estimated to be 120 MtCO2 in this study.
This estimation is derived based on the National Strategy (2018-2037) of Thailand. If the contributionof the LULUCF sector in CO2 emission mitigation is less than the estimated target, then larger
emission reductions would be required from other economic sectors to meet the net zero target.

This uncertainty may impact the socio-economic conditions causing further distortions of GDP andother macroeconomic indicators.
The uncertainty lies in the growth of carbon stock in the forests which can be at a lesser rate than
expected. This suggests that forest utilization practices with a focus on maintaining the long-term
carbon stock growth should be addressed. Furthermore, additional measures to minimize the risk
associated with drought conditions and forest fires are needed to sustain the forestry sector growth inorder to increase the carbon accumulation potential.

41
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

10

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig. 2 shows the recommended GHG countermeasures in the NZE2050 roadmap in thebuildings, industries, transport, power generation, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land
use sectors. The actions are divided into short term (2020-2030), medium term (2030-2040) andlong term (2040-2050) periods since some GHG countermeasures cannot be implemented
earlier and need to wait for maturity of technologies such as green hydrogen, carbon capture &utilization (CCU), CCS and BECCS. On the supply side, renewable energy technologies andcleaner technologies would play crucial roles, while on the demand side not only energy efficientdevices and fuel switching but also behavior change could contribute to the net zero emissions
2050. Therefore, to achieve climate resilient Thailand towards 2050, these policy packages in the

NZE2050 roadmap must be planned at the early stage.

METHODOLOGY

Fig. 2 Policy package for NZE2050

3
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe NZE2050 is estimated based on i) the baseline in the 2-degree pathways of Thailand, andii) 2050 GHG mitigation measures for the climate resilient Thailand of employed green technologies
and energy efficiency improvement as well as the potential to reduce GHG emissions by measuresavailable during 2020-2050 such as behavior changes, battery electric vehicles, renewable energy
with energy storage, green hydrogen, carbon capture & storage (CCS), carbon capture utilization,and storage (CCUS), and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS).
In this study, only selected GHG mitigation options, which have been found to be cost effective, areincluded in the NZE2050. The proposed NZE2050 roadmap for sustainable Thailand revealsi) a peak GHG emission from sources of 390 MtCO 2eq in 2025, and ii) the net zero GHG emissions
by 2050.

This study has constructed a multi sector, dynamic recursive Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/
Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model, which was developed to analyze the climatechange mitigation and its impact of Thailand considering the input-output data of 2015 for the

analysis. As the strength of the AIM/CGE models throughout an economic top-down approach are toevaluate economy-related policies, this type of modeling tool has been widely adopted to assess the
economic and environmental impacts of various energy and climate policies at the global, national,
and sub-national levels.

The CGE model includes thefollowing blocks: production,
government and householdincomeandexpenditurelocks, and a foreign trade

Table. 1

block considering both the

Macro-economic impacts of NZE2050

Macro-economic impacts
Cumulative GDP loss, compared to thebaseline or 2DREF
Sectoral GDP share
Services:
Industries:
Transport:
Others:domestic

Net zero emissions 2050
1.1% during 2020-2050

andinternationaltransactions. (Fig. 24)
Fig. 24: Framework of the AIM/CGE model

Increase from 51.4% in 2020 to 64.8% in 2050
Decrease from 41.2% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2050
Decrease from 7.3% in 2020 to 1.1% in 2050
Increase from 0.1% in 2020 to 1.7% in 2050

In addition, the available technology
proposed in this study obtained from
AIM/Enduse model, which is a bottom-up
technology model to select the optimum

Total consumption

Increase from 323 billion US$ in 2020 to 677
billion US$ in 2050

Household consumption

Increase from 239 billion US$ in 2020 to 272
billion US$ in 2050

when system cost is minimized under

Government consumption

Increase from 84 billion US$ in 2020 to 405 billion
US$ in 2050

demand, availability of energy supplies

Cumulative welfare loss

6.8% during 2020 to 2050

Carbon price

Increase to US$ 734 per tCO2eq towards 2050

2
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

technology systems

in an economy

constraints such as satisfaction of service

andtechnologies,

islinkedtothe

AIM/CGE model. (see Fig. 25)

Fig. 25: Linkages between the bottom-up AIM/
Enduse model and the top-down AIM/CGE model

43
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

INPUT- OUTPUT DATA OF 2015

INPUT- OUTPUT DATA OF 2015
Unit: Million USD

Crops

Livestock

Forestry

Fishery

Coal andligniteminingPetroleum andNatural
gas

Ore

001

002

003

004

005

006

007

Food,
beverageandtobaccoproducts

Textileindustry

008

009

Paper
RubberPetroleIndustries Chemical
and
um
and
plastic
Industries
refineries
Printing
products

010

011

012

013

Nonmetallic
Products

Basic
Metal

014

015

Fabricated metal
products

Machinery

016

017

Other
ManufacElectricity
turingProducts

018

019

Gas
Pipeline

Water
supplysystem020

021

Construction

Trade

022

023

Services

Railways

024

025

GovernPrivate
ment
Other
ConRoad
Water
Air
Commu- UnclassiConTransport
sumptionsumptionTransport Transport Transportnication
fied
ExpendiServices
Expenditure
ture

026

027

028

029

030

031

301

302

Gross
Fixed
CapitalFormation

303

Increasein Stock

Exports(F.O.B.)

Special
Exports

Imports(C.I.F.)

Import
Duty

Import
Tax

304

305

306

401

402

403

SpecialControl Total
Imports

404

600

Crops

001

3,118

378

15

14

0

0

0

17,422

1

6

217

0

3,317

0

0

0

0

20

11

0

0

26

0

3,491

0

0

0

62

0

0

215

7,552

54

0

992

2,490

457

-3,174

-115

-17

-246

36,308Livestock

002

26

636

0

0

0

0

0

6,773

73

0

39

0

0

0

0

0

0

43

0

0

0

0

0

167

0

0

0

0

0

0

11

1,642

13

103

0

181

0

-137

-1

-2

0

9,569

Forestry

003

1

3

22

0

0

0

6

80

0

96

60

0

0

3

0

0

2

783

9

0

0

157

0

32

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

226

0

0

-975

329

0

-203

-5

-15

0

619

Fishery

004

0

82

0

287

0

0

0

2,005

0

0

97

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1,318

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

1,620

3

10

0

92

0

-108

-1

0

0

5,409

Coal andlignite

005

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

45

0

0

248

160

0

0

0

1,206

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

77

4

0

-1,254

-3

-93

0

397

Petroleumand Natural

006

0

0

0

0

0

443

0

0

0

0

188

24,518

0

0

0

0

0

0

3,200

9,758

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-2,19548

0-21,228-22-1,8110

12,899

Ore

007

17

2

0

1

0

6

4

114

0

10

277

0

4

1,937

694

5

75

343

1

0

1

1,846

0

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

74

0

0

0

-2,515

465

0

-502

-3

-28

0

2,829

Food,
beverage

008

9

2,937

0

745

0

0

0

12,499

8

37

483

5

26

18

0

0

2

349

59

0

0

0

136

12,242

0

11

0

228

8

0

434

34,887172

0-4,20925,512

1,198-8,862-260-1,000-584

77,088

Textileindustry

009

15

0

2

25

0

0

2

22

7,010

6

218

0

230

15

2

5

204

495

6

0

0

11

277

936

0

9

28

26

10

0

120

6,818

112

171

-1,846

6,680

2,859

-4,075

-44

-175

-942

19,231

Paper
Industries

010

18

2

1

0

0

4

2

275

81

2,446

159

10

65

94

9

37

533

159

20

7

1

30

538

3,765

0

25

13

9

75

29

62

1,754

354

0

-1,0841,300

529-2,405-31-145-1,368

7,372

ChemicalIndustries

011

3,573

218

3

56

0

16

120

776

1,413

593

9,854

1,002

6,279

1,098

169

379

4,031

1,135

54

3

77

541

85

5,553

0

16

13

30

9

3

181

4,140

193

0

-6,57814,495682-18,831

-257

-783

-857

29,48634,520Petroleumrefineries

012

898

53

11

877

47

1,446

254

593

235

50

1,722

895

296

445

393

103

1,618

203

2,220

46

10

568

704

2,700

49

3,643

2,253

2,460

229

131

58

5,719

963

0

-1,080

6,539

1,459

-2,025-25-224-2,015

Rubber andplastic

013

253

52

3

85

0

9

22

861

261

107

376

24

1,712

48

12

135

4,295

779

12

0

14

417

1,269

371

0

322

5

4

30

9

142

2,575

27

168

-49

12,84020-5,669

-92

-206

0

21,246

Nonmetallic

014

19

4

5

6

0

0

1

451

0

0

90

0

0

1,826

5

56

1,333

351

0

0

15

7,236

31

90

0

0

0

0

0

0

185

973

36

613

-269

1,992

0

-1,815

-21

-59

-63

13,092

Basic Metal

015

5

0

0

0

0

0

1

16

0

9

4

0

29

269

3,840

5,350

17,996

5,363

0

0

0

2,734

3

513

1

3

11

0

0

0

145

0

3

0

-4,7904,383

0-26,299-159-1,06208,369

Fabricated
metal

016

304

26

23

1

0

0

65

1,508

83

39

114

3

100

29

31

615

2,786

284

33

80

3

1,860

41

549

20

7

6

23

100

0

96

1,234

95

2,617

1,422

6,741

262

-9,524

-124

-300

0

11,255

Machinery

017

439

27

22

155

12

326

303

540

194

97

329

120

212

169

64

123

63,649

309

822

126

5

2,126

879

5,576

32

3,809

381

398

89

165

699

15,478574

46,524

3,667

82,312512-72,054-1,051-2,594-198

155,365

Other
Manufac-

018

141

14

4

6

0

26

12

23

318

23

52

2

36

28

11

64

693

10,136

14

8

12

365

422

2,270

3

6

8

5

44

7

359

7,381

428

4,841

-78

18,3172,592-9,436-92-436-1,91936,711

Electricity

019

119

109

1

14

3

85

65

1,680

1,204

193

684

153

902

701

433

218

2,846

611

810

153

288

191

2,456

7,463

4

67

25

180

202

397

43

4,765

1,011

0

0

178

0

-549

0

-40

0

27,665Gas
Pipeline

020

4

1

0

1

0

0

15

195

23

9

1,010

485

32

176

28

22

176

17

5,662

2,828

0

5

8

685

0

2,848

17

0

4

17

43

4,201

55

0

4,547

20

0

-3,741

-801

-301

0

18,290

Water

021

55

17

0

0

0

0

2

101

14

9

37

4

12

14

2

3

64

14

2

7

68

17

177

362

0

7

1

11

4

13

0

800

195

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,012

Construc-

022

20

28

0

3

0

2

4

40

11

7

24

3

13

11

4

10

66

16

23

6

0

17

227

568

1

8

2

6

13

0

6

158

115

30,896

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

32,310

Trade

023

2,315

563

13

312

7

200

107

4,013

1,439

967

2,298

338

1,870

642

230

588

14,605

4,114

544

79

19

2,526

546

7,493

9

748

331

238

56

40

369

22,243364

6,669-2,041

12,823

2,015

0

0

0

0

89,690Services

024

1,070

160

18

106

4

2,148

98

1,936

593

280

1,119

270

604

676

203

250

2,924

1,092

1,340

865

173

1,497

7,254

20,893

11

693

596

1,178

1,213

1,093

666

79,28559,496000

28,06900

0-17,417200,456

Railways

025

2

1

0

1

0

0

0

10

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

19

2

9

0

0

1

0

17

0

1

0

0

4

0

3

117

2

0

0

0

63

0

0

0

-28

230

Road
Transport

026

264

45

3

21

73

23

94

605

166

103

316

54

242

182

37

100

903

260

99

27

4

1,971

364

1,019

1

291

46

14

99

100

167

7,797

243

295

-123

1,370

2,721

0

0

0

-1,56018,436

Water
Transport

027

83

12

1

20

0

10

40

114

9

30

32

7

41

109

5

14

228

35

9

0

0

11

90

165

0

16

663

9

40

0

41

3,746

0

325

-80

516

2,780

0

0

0

-894

8,227

Air
Transport

028

7

2

0

0

0

28

4

49

18

7

34

3

25

11

6

14

121

74

18

14

0

4

812

355

0

11

58

2,107

340

163

43

4,092

28

0

0

0

4,194

0

0

0

-2,548

10,096

Other
Transport

029

6

0

0

0

0

0

2

240

100

11

129

19

112

66

22

21

240

94

1

0

0

1

848

25

0

0

7

460

311

11

1

1,916

0

0

0

0

2,436

0

0

0

-1,285

5,795Communication

030

167

7

0

1

1

8

7

53

29

19

65

16

45

38

13

22

269

119

47

43

0

29

714

2,775

0

21

30

85

56

1,734

134

4,186

517

0

0

0

1,955

0

0

0

-2,717

10,489Unclassified

031

23

11

0

20

0

13

3

351

102

62

153

6

46

127

45

31

373

75

64

54

21

76

309

711

7

68

16

118

56

23

143

779

24

0

2,351

211

158

0

0

0

-404

6,226

Wages and

201

7,799

966

220

570

69

2,190

475

5,311

1,959

645

2,942

541

1,478

1,199

638

921

8,435

3,631

4,428

795

497

2,557

16,41360,265

202

2,173

1,356

1,021

917

1,824

415

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

132,854

Operating202

14,817

2,999

216

1,750

159

2,610

920

8,754

2,434

953

4,118

687

2,013

1,802

836

1,583

14,388

3,730

3,235

1,774

434

3,295

45,50632,371

-31

2,083

1,536

680

1,492

2,733

624

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

160,501

Deprecia-

203

1,055

189

19

324

13

1,729

162

2,415

903

346

1,318

756

945

791

237

332

5,447

1,272

3,224

1,351

331

1,740

6,400

20,758

51

1,103

657

540

303

1,622

537

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

56,868Indirect
Taxes less

204

-335

25

13

6

7

1,577

41

7,264

547

213

885

4,598

560

316

238

255

7,045

800

485

266

38

454

3,181

4,953

-133

447

170

204

90

372

191

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

34,774Control
Total

210

36,308

9,569

619

5,409

397

12,8992,829

77,08819,231

7,372

29,48634,52021,246

13,092

8,369

11,255

155,365

36,711

27,665

18,2902,012

32,31089,690200,456

230

18,436

8,227

10,096

5,795

10,4896,226

226,083

65,077

93,232-14,857

199,837

54,961-191,892-3,106-9,291-35,045

1,296,685

Note: 1 USD is equal to 36.158 Baht, exchange rate as of 23 November 2022 (BOT, 2022).

44
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

45
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

BIBLIOGRAPHY

The roadmap of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2050 or NZE2050 Thailand is one of•

BOT. (2022). Exchange Rates. Retrieved from Bank of Thailand: https://www.bot.or.th/thai/the joint research outcomes of support and collaboration among Thammasat University (TU)

statistics/financialmarkets/exchangerate/_layouts/application/exchangerate/exchangerate.aspx

Thailand, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Thailand, the National Institute for Environmental•

CIF. (2021). Clinker Substitution. Retrieved from Cement Industry Foundation: https://cement.org.au/clinker-substitution/•

DEDE. (2020). Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018-2037 (AEDP 2018-2037). Bangkok:

Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050.

ThailandThe measures for GHG mitigation options in the demand and supply sides include behavior changes

Electric

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Status:http://www.evat.or.th/attachments/view/?

GIZ. (2022, May 12). GIZ Agriculture & Food Cluster. Retrieved from Thai Rice NAMA Factsheet

Henriksen, O. (2022). Thai Rice NAMA. Retrieved from GIZ Agriculture & Food Cluster: https://www.asean-agrifood.org/thai-rice-nama/#:~:text=Thai%20Rice%20NAMA%2C%20funded%
20by,and%20technologies%20accessible%20to%20farmers.

•

•

•

in the demand sectors, improvement of energy efficiency, new renewable energy development,
electrification of transportation, Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS), Carbon Capture
Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and green hydrogen.
This report is the first roadmap to be accomplished for NZE2050 using an optimization model, called“AIM/Enduse”. The macro-economic impacts of NZE2050 are evaluated by a computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE”, in terms of changes in gross domestic product (GDP),changes in welfare, changes in government consumption and the related carbon prices.

IGES. (n.d.). Report on AIM/Enduse Model. Retrieved from IGES: https://www.iges.or.jp/en/

The roadmap provided in this report has been prepared based on assumptions concerning limitations

publication_documents/pub/workingpaper/en/2165/aimenduse_report_fin.pdf

of resources, capital requirement, technological advancement, timing of technology adoption, andLimmeechokchai, B., Winyuchakrit, P., Pita, P., Misila, P., & Kanbua, S. (2020). The study on

appropriateness for Thailand.

determination of appropriate discount rates for evaluation of GHG mitigation measures. Bang-

It is our hope that this roadmap to net zero emissions 2050 will be one of the Asian pioneering efforts

kok: Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (Public Organization).

that will contribute to widespread usage for climate policy in Thailand and other Asian countries to

The World Bank. (2022, March). Overview. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from The World Bank in
Thailand: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview•

This report includes a roadmap to deep decarbonized the Energy sector as well as the Industrial

EVAT. (2022, June). Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand. Retrieved August 25, 2022, fromEnglish: https://www.asean-agrifood.org/thai-rice-nama-factsheet-English/•

and Mizuho Research and Technologies Japan. We acknowledge the great support by NIES, IGES

Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector, the Agriculture sector, the Waste sector, and the Land

attach_id=265019•

Studies (NIES) Japan, Kyoto University, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Japan,

and Mizuho Research and Technologies for the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM).

Ministry of Energy.

•

PREFACE

The World Bank Group, & The Asian Development Bank. (2021). Climate Risk Country Profile:

help limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This roadmap aims at communication among

policy makers, administrators, academic researchers, and public on climate resilient society.
The research findings are intended to contribute to sustainable development of Thailand, one of
the fast-growing economies in Southeast Asia, towards a Thai style climate resilient society.

Thailand. The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank.
(Bundit Limmeechokchai)46
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050

Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University
October, 2022

•UNEP. (n.d.). Thailand - Main details. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Convention on biologicaldiversity: https://www.cbd.int/countries/profile/?country=th•World Bank Group. (2020). The Human Capital Index 2020 update: Human Capital in the Time of
COVID-19. Washington D.C.: World Bank.

•World Bank Group. (2021). Climatology. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Climate Change
Knowledge

PortalforDevelopment

Practitioners

andPolicyMakers:https://

climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/thailand/climate-data-historical•Worldometer. (2021). Thailand population. Retrieved August 23, 2022, from Worldometer:https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/thailand-population/•

Worldometer. (n.d.). CO2 Emissions. Retrieved August 25, 2022, from Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/CO 2-emissions/

A Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions 2050: Thailand
Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University
Asian Institute of Technology
Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Kyoto University

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
Mizuho Research & Technologies
First published in 2022
by Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment

47
Roadmap to Thailand’s net zero emissions 2050