EU Policies to be the First Carbon-Neutral
Continent in the Transforming World
ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo, 7 March 2024

Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Distinguished Emeritus Scholar
Group of Chief Scientific Advisers
Energy Economics Emeritus Professor
Nakicenovic

2024 #1

The Key Challenges of Energy,
Pollution, and Climate Transformation

EnergyAccessClimateChangeEnergySecurity
Air Pollution
Health Impacts

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2024 #2

Wood for Cooking

Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
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2024 #3

Mobile Phones Charging

Source: Modi, 2011
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2024 #4

Lack of Decent Work and EmploymentNakicenovic

2024 #5

Lack of Decent Work toward Decent Life

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2024 #6

The World is at Crossroads
Great acceleration benefited many but increased
inequalities and dangers of tipping elements
 Since 1800 global economy increased 100-fold,energy 50 times and CO2 30 times
 Temperature increased to 1.5oC and about 8
million die due to indoor and regional air pollution
 Many suffering famine, war, and conquest
 Achievement of 2030 Agenda and Paris
Agreement would bring multiple co-benefits forpeople and the planet
Nakicenovic

2024 #7Global Average Temperature(compared to the average 1850-1900)
Super
El NiñosBroecker, 1975: Present cooling
trend will within a decade give
way to pronounced warming
induced by CO2Paris
2015
IPCC
1988

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Source: Earth, 2024

Kyoto
1997

2024 #8

1981
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2024 #9

Daily Sea Surface Temperature
MondayFeb 19, 2024
21.1 °C© Climate Reanalyzer, 2024

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2024 #10

Vienna Land-Surface Temperatures 14 July 2023
At 22:27 CEST recorded by NASA's Ecostress instrument which is carried on the International Space Station

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2024 #11

Nakicenovic

2024 #12

16 Earth System Tipping Elements

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MacKay et al. Science, 2022 Vol
377, Issue2024#13 6611

How to Survive the Anthropocene – with a Little Help of IIASA
Anthropocene Earth System Dynamics

IIASA

Re-Entanglementwith Nature(Mitigation etc.)

Transition
Management

New SocialstApplied Systems Analysis in the 21 Century
Contract(Justification etc.)

Weathering theStorms(Adaptation etc.)

Regenerative Civilizationin Co-Evolution with Nature
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John Schellnhuber, Director General, IIASA, 2024

2024 #14

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)

15, date

The European Green Deal

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2024 #16

GroupGroup ofof Chief
Chief
Scientific
Scientific Advisors
Advisors

SAM secretariat

SAPEA consortiumof academynetworks

Scientific opinions

Science advice for a clean and fair energy transition:
A challenge and a call for action

Nakicenovic

2024 #19

GCSA Recommendations on energy transition

europa.eu/!kkU9bb

1. Develop flexible, efficient, and resilient EU energy systems fordelivering clean, accessible, and affordable energy services byintegrating decarbonised energy sources, electrification and theuse of blue and green hydrogen.
2. Recognise the roles of all actors and stakeholders in creating an
inclusive and participatory environment that incentivises andsupports low-carbon energy choices.
3. Support a coordinated combination of policies, measures andinstruments, including carbon pricing as a driving force, to shapean effective, consistent and just regulatory system.
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2024 #20

EU pathway to prosperity & climate neutrality
Fit for 55 package under EGD

240

GDP

220
200

GDP a nd Net Emissions (1990=100)

180
160
140
120

100
80
60-55%

Greenhouse Gas
Emissions andRemovals

40

20
0-20
1990

1995

2000

Non-CO2 otherTertiary
PowerNet emissions

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025Non-CO2 Agriculture
Transport
Carbon Removal Technologies
GDP

2030

2035

2040

2045

ResidentialIndustry
Land use and forests

2050

“Carbon Law”

Source: Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber, 2017; IPCC SR1.5, 2019; Kriegler, 2019

“Carbon Law”
Re-directing investmentsfrom fossils to low carbon
and efficiency solutions

•
•
•
•

Power sector decarbonization
Electrification of end uses
Efficiency improvements
REDD+Source: Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber, 2017; IPCC SR1.5, 2019; Kriegler, 2019

“Carbon Law”
Re-directing investmentsfrom fossils to low carbon
and efficiency solutions

Carbon neutral economy• Zero carbon electricity• Electrified end uses
• Low carbon fuels• Carbon removal, incl.
afforesttion
Challenges:
Freight transport, Aviation,
Shipping,Heavy industry, Agriculture

•
•
•
•

Power sector decarbonization
Electrification of end uses
Efficiency improvements
REDD+• Compensate residual long-lived emissions• Safeguard 1.5°C / well below 2°C
temperature limit

Source: Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber, 2017; IPCC SR1.5, 2019; Kriegler, 2019

The Advisory Board recommends keeping the EU’s
greenhouse gas emissions budget within a limit of
11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050.
Staying within this budget requires emission reductionsof 90–95% by 2040, relative to 1990.
This range considers multiple dimensions of fairness andfeasibility of the emission reductions.

Considering the latest scientific evidence on emission
scenarios compatible with 1.5oC and EU targets

26

Recommended range of 2040 greenhouse gasemission reductions, and iconic pathways

27

55% is an appropriate milestone
towards climate neutrality

Short term measures can further decrease
cumulative emissions until 2050

➔ The recommended 2040 target can be realisedwith 55% as a starting point28

Recommended range of 2040 greenhouse gas
emission reductions, and iconic pathways

29

Nakicenovic

2024 #30

Historical and Projected GHG Emissions

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2024 #31

Wo steht Österreich? Aktuelle Emissionen und Ziele

mit existierenden
Maßnahmen 2021
Erneuerbaren Ausbaugesetz:• Ziel bis 2030 Strom zu 100% aus
Erneuerbarer
Wärmegesetz (in Vorbereitung):• Erneuerbaren-Gebot bei Tauschvon Heizungen und im Neubau• Thermische Sanierung Gebäude

mit zusätzlichen
Maßnahmen 2021
Ziel
Klimaneutralität
2040

UBA (2021), Klimaschutzbericht 2021, https://www.umweltbundesamt.at/fileadmin/site/publikationen/rep0776.pdf

32

Background to Demand-Side Options• Recurrent theme in energy research and scenarios: Lovins 1976;

IIASA-EFW, 1981; IIASA-WEC, 1998; GEA, 2012; TWI2050, 2018-2020• Renewed interest reduce emissions ‘overshoot’ Smith et al. 2016; SDGs (e.g.,SDG12 consumption & production); benefits of granular solutions that can bereplicated at scale with learning, Wilson et al., 2020
• LED scenario of Grubler et al., 2018 as input to IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, IPCC,
2018; IPCC AR6 Chapter 5, Creutzig et al., 2022
• Energy Demand changes Induced by Technological and Social innovations(EDITS) network formed in 2018, co-organized by IIASA and RITE with funding fromMETI• EDITS activities include thematic working groups, quarterly and annual meetings,
fast-track research projects, scenario narratives and models

Global Primary Energy
EDITS Low Energy Demand (LED)
1200

1000

EJ

800

600

400

Energy savings (efficiency and sufficency)

Savings
Other Ren.
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass~55% improvement by 2030
~20% renewables by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co→ without “overshoot”

Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil

200

Coal0
1850

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

Source: After Grubler et al, 2018

2050

Decent Living and Sufficiency
service provision(consumption)→ High-with-Low – Enough of Everything
but not too Much!

overconsumption
and waste
Sufficiency
Decent Living
Standards

Sufficiency corridor

Basic Access→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics

for a just, safe and beautiful future for allwellbeing‘High-with-Low’ scenario further develops
3 key themes from LED … and cross-cutting linkages
decent living
standards
inclusive, decentralised innovation,with social support mechanisms
peer effects andnetwork effects

adaptability to local needs,
and local learning

CROSSCUTTING
LINKAGES

digitalisation

managing complexity on
shared infrastructures

innovation
coordination andgovernance
Figure source: Charlie Wilson, 2022, EDITS Annual Meeting

Tapping theenormous
potential forservices-led
transformation
Source: Wilson, Grubler, andZimm (2022). Energy-Services
Led Transformation. In:
Routledge Handbook ofEnergy Transitions (Ed:Araujo).
Data from: Grubler et al.
(2018), De Stercke (2014),
Nakicenovic et al. (1993),
Nakicenovic (1990).

[a] Industry Energy
100%

100%

75%75%50%50%25%25%0%0%

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergyserviceenergy378 EJ

208 EJ
72 EJ

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergy[b] Building Energy

serviceenergy[e] Materials: Steel

100%

100%

75%

75%

50%

50%

25%

25%0%

0%

primary secondary usefulenergy
energyenergy[d] Total Energy

511 EJ

serviceenergyOre &Scrap
Inputs[c] Transport Energy

Crude
steel

Purchased Recovered
products post use
scap[f] Irrigation Water

100%

100%

75%

75%

50%

50%

25%
25%
0%

37

primary secondary usefulenergyenergyenergyserviceenergy

0%

Water

Crop

Food

Nutritionsavings
amplify backup throughresource
conversion
cascade ….
and provide
more flexibility,security, andresilience inresource
conversion andprovision ofservices.

Impact of IC Technology Convergence

Source: Grubler et al., 2018

Disruptive End-User Innovations✓ Ownership tousership✓ Sharingeconomy✓ Automized toconnected

Source: Wilson et al., 2022

Demand-side policies help energy security• Usual energy-security policy response is to change
fuel supplier or fuel switch, while end-use
technology and behavior changes are rarely utilized• We show that energy-demand interventions deliver
better on national and individual energy security− electrification of transport, e.g. EVs or electric
rail− performance improvement of buildings, e.g.
insulation or construction of passive houses• Energy security is not the same as supply security− supply-side policies (e.g. fuel substitution)
score well on the share of non-fossil fuels andimport independency− Demand-side policies improve longer term
resilience and vulnerability to further crises

40

Source: Bento, Grubler, Boza-Kiss, De Stercke, Krey, McCollum,Zimm, Alves. Leverage demand-side policies for energy security.
Science Policy Forum. Science, 2024

The New Bauhaus World● The New European Bauhaus translates
the European Green Deal into a tangible,
positiveexperienceinwhichall
Europeans can participate and progress
together.
● It inspires a movement to facilitate andsteer the transformation of our societies
along three inseparable values:➢Sustainability, from climate goals to circularity and biodiversity➢Inclusion, from valorising diversity to accessibility and affordability➢Beauty, from aesthetics of experience to style beyond functionality● The approach is multi-level from global to local, participatory andtransdisciplinary.
2022 #41

Nakicenovic

2024 #42

Collective Responsibility in theAnthropocene

Nakicenovic

2024 #43

© Jasmin Dobrovsky
My balkony in 2050
EDITS arts competition
2022

ありがとうThank you.

Visit: https://iiasa.ac.at/winners-of-edits-arts-2022-competition-life-in-2050-with-much-less-energy
44

ありがとうwww.TWI2050.org SAM
naki@eeg.tuwien.ac.at