全国地震動予測地図 技術報告書（2009）
Technical Report on National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan (2009)
目次
１．はじめに······························································1- 1

1.1 地震動予測地図の作成経緯と現状·····································1- 1

1.2 地震動予測地図の高度化に向けた議論
1.2.1 「高度化」の定義·································1- 2···············································1- 2

1.2.2 高精度化·······················································1- 21.2.3 高度利用·······················································1- 2

1.3 高度化の方針と今回の導入内容
1 章の参考文献·······································1- 3··························································1- 3

２．長期評価における固有地震の震源断層モデルの設定
2.1 主要活断層帯に発生する固有地震························2- 1·····································2- 1

2.1.1 既往の強震動評価における震源断層モデル·························2- 1

2.1.2 全国一律に手続き化された手法による震源断層モデル···············2- 1

2.1.3 長大断層の震源断層モデル·······································2- 2

2.2 海溝型及び日本海東縁の固有地震·····································2- 36

2 章の参考文献··························································2- 36

３．確率論的地震動予測地図················································3- 1

3.1 評価の手順と結果の表現方法·········································3- 1

3.1.1 地震ハザード評価手法の概要·····································3- 1

3.1.2 ハザードカーブの算定方法·······································3- 1

3.1.3 結果の表現方法·················································3- 4

3.2 地図の作成範囲と地図の仕様
3.2.1 地図の作成範囲
3.2.2

地図の仕様·········································3- 5·················································3- 5·····················································3- 5

3.3 地震活動の評価モデル···············································3- 5

3.3.1 主要活断層帯に発生する固有地震
3.3.2

海溝型地震·································3- 5·····················································3- 22

3.3.3 主要活断層帯以外の活断層に発生する地震
3.3.4 震源断層を予め特定しにくい地震
3.4 地震カテゴリー·························3- 51·································3- 62·····················································3-124

3.5 地震動の評価モデル·················································3-125

3.5.1 工学的基盤における最大速度の距離減衰式
3.5.2 異常震域の補正方法·························3-125·············································3-125

3.5.3 地表における最大速度の評価·····································3-1273.5.4 地表における計測震度の評価
3.5.5 地震動のばらつき·····································3-127···············································3-127

3.6 確率論的地震動予測地図の作成条件の変更履歴
3.7 評価結果···························································3-136

3.7.1 評価した図の一覧
3.7.2 評価結果···············································3-136·······················································3-141

3.7.3 代表地点における震度 6 弱の 30 年超過確率
3 章の参考文献·························3-130························3-144··························································3-150

４．震源断層を特定した地震動予測地図
4.1 評価の手順と結果の表示方法
4.1.1 評価対象とした地震······································4- 1·········································4- 1·············································4- 1

4.1.2 評価手法の概要·················································4- 1

4.1.3 結果の表示方法·················································4- 1

4.2 地図の作成領域と仕様···············································4- 1

4.2.1 地図の作成領域·················································4- 1

4.2.2

地図の仕様·····················································4- 1

4.3 主要活断層帯に発生する固有地震の微視的震源特性及びその他の震源特性の設定······4- 2

4.3.1 微視的震源特性の設定···········································4- 24.3.2 その他の震源特性の設定·········································4- 34.4 地下構造モデルの設定···············································4- 104.4.1 地震基盤以深の地殻構造·········································4- 104.4.2 深い地盤構造のモデル···········································4- 114.4.3 浅い地盤構造のモデル···········································4- 334.5 強震動計算方法·····················································4- 374.5.1 詳細法工学的基盤上の波形計算···································4- 37

4.5.2 距離減衰式を用いた詳細法工学的基盤上の最大速度計算·············4- 41

4.5.3 地表における最大速度の評価·····································4- 41

4.5.4 地表における計測震度の評価·····································4- 41

4.5.5 条件付超過確率
4.6 評価結果·················································4- 41···························································4- 42

4.6.1 主要活断層帯に発生する固有地震·································4- 42

4.6.2 海溝型及び日本海東縁の固有地震·································4- 42

4 章の参考文献

５．おわりに··························································4- 43······························································5- 1

5.1 全国地震動予測地図のまとめ
5.2 今後の高度化への課題
5 章の参考文献·········································5- 1···············································5- 2··························································5- 4

付録 1

長期評価、強震動評価、確率論的地震動予測地図試作版、「全国を概観した地震動予測地図」及び「全国地震動予測地図」の公表一覧

付録 2

長期評価結果一覧表（算定基準日 平成 21 年（2009 年）1 月 1 日）

付録 3

震源断層を特定した地震の強震動予測手法(「レシピ」)

付録 4

委員会名簿

ＤＶＤ資料： 図集１ 確率論的地震動予測地図
ＤＶＤ資料： 図集２ 震源断層を特定した地震動予測地図