Coffee price rise continues in October despite improved weather
conditions in Brazil
In October 2021, coffee prices reached new multi-year highs, as the monthly average of the ICO composite
indicator price was 181.57 US cents/lb, an increase of 6.8% as compared to 170.02 US cents/lbin September 2021. These
price levels during coffee year 2020/21 mark a significant recovery from the low levels experienced over the three
preceding coffee years.
In terms of market fundamentals, exports of all forms of coffee by all exporting countries to all destinations
totalled 10.07 million 60-kg bags in September 2021, 4.9% lower than in September 2020. Total shipments ofall forms of coffee over coffee year 2020/21 (October 2020 – September 2021) amounted to 129.03 million bags,
an increase of 1.3% compared with 127.36 million bags during coffee year 2019/20.
Global coffee consumption for coffee year 2020/21 is estimated at 167.15 million bags, an increase of 1.9% over
164.02 million bags recorded in coffee year 2019/20. The projection for total production in coffee year 2020/21
is 169.64 million bags, representing a marginal increase of 0.4% onthe 168.98 million bags harvested in coffeeyear 2019/20. The projected total production of coffee year2020/21 is 8.6% higher than the average of the last
10 coffee years. However, concerns over the supply from important origins still characterise market conditions, asclimate-related shocks and covid-related disruptions continue to affect trade flows in many countries.
The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator rose by 6.8%, from 170.02 US cents/lb in September
2021 to 181.57 US cents/lb in October 2021. The level reached in October 2021 represents a 71.5%
increase as compared to 105.85 US cents/lb recorded at the beginning of the last coffee year in October
2020. Moreover, the average price of October 2021 is the highest since the mark of 182.29 US cents/lb
recorded in February 2012. The steady upward trend observed since the start of coffee year 2020/21 shows
how the recovery of coffee prices, after three consecutive years of low-price levels, reflects a substantialchange in overall market conditions, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: ICO composite indicator daily prices
190
180

US cents/lb

170
160
150
140
130
120
110
10090
Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20

Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21Prices for all group indicators increased in October 2021 and reached their highest levels in several years.
The highest increase occurred in the Brazilian Naturals Group indicator price, which reached 199.98 US
cents/lb, an increase of 8.9% as compared to 183.72 US cents/lb registered in the previous month and anincrease of 99.2% from October 2020, and the highest level reached since 214.4 US cents/lb in February
2012.The price for the Colombian Milds increased by 7.7% to 258.87 US cents/lb in October 2021 ascompared to 240.38 US cents/lbin September 2021. It also represents a rise of 67.8% from 154.28 cents/lb
recorded in October 2020, and the highest level recorded since 287.54 US cents/lb in September 2011.
Prices for the Other Milds increased by 6.9% to 241.06 US cents/lb in October 2021 as compared to225.54 US cents/lb in September 2021. A higher level has not been since 245.09 US cents/lb in November
2011. Moreover, compared to its level of 152.06 US cents/lb in October 2020, the Other Milds indicatorincreased by 58.5%. Robustas, priced at 105.24 US cents/lb in October, showed steady growth andincreased by 0.6% in between September 2021 and October 2021. It is the highest level since 105.55 US
cents/lb was reached in April 2014.

2Coffee Market Report – October 2021

Figure 2: ICO group indicator daily prices
275
250

US cents/lb225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Colombian Milds

Jun-20

Sep-20

Other Milds

Dec-20Mar-21

Brazilian Naturals

Jun-21

Sep-21

Robustas

The differential between the Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased substantially, rising by 20.0%from14.84 US cents/lb in September 2021 to 17.81 US cents/lb in October 2021. The differential between theColombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals increased by 3.9%, from 56.66 US cents/lb in September 2021 to58.89 US cents/lb in October 2021. The differential between the Colombian Mildsand Robustas increased by
13.1%, from 135.78 cents/lb in September 2021 to 153.63 US cents/lb in October 2021. The differential
between the Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals decreased by 1.8%to 41.08 US cents/lb in October 2021
from 41.82 US cents/lb in September 2021. The arbitrage between Arabica and Robusta coffees, asmeasured on the New York and London futures markets, increased by 13.8% at 109.69 US cents/lbin October
2021, as compared with 96.39 US cents/lb in September 2021.
Although coffee prices continued to increase, volatility weakened in October 2021. Intra-day volatility of
the ICO composite indicator price increased by 0.1 percentage points to 8.3% in October 2021. The Brazilian
Naturals indicator showed a volatility of 10.7% in October 2021, as compared to 10.5% in September 2021.
The Colombian Milds recorded a level of volatility at 8.6% in October 2021, as compared to 9.1% recordedin September 2021. Volatility for the Other Milds increased slightly from 9.1% in September 2021 to 9.5%in October 2021. Robusta price had the lowest volatility at 5.3% in October 2021,as compared to 7.5% inSeptember 2021. The volatility of New York futures market was 11.1% in October 2021, as compared to10.1% in September 2021. The volatility of London futures marketdecreased by 2.2 percentage points to5.6%, as compared to 7.8% in September 2021.

Coffee Market Report – October 2021

3Figure 3: Arbitrage between New York and120

Figure 4: Rolling 30-day volatility of theLondon futures markets

20%
15%Volatilit

US cents/lb

10080

ICO composite indicator price

10%

60

5%

400%

20

Estimates of total production for coffee year 2020/21 remain unchanged at 169.64 million 60-kgbags,representing a 0.4% increase as compared to 168.980 million bags during the previous coffeeyear. WhileArabica production increased by 2.3% to 99.26 million bags, a 2.1% reduction has been recorded in theproduction of Robusta coffee to 70.38 million bags. At the regional level, African output will remain at thesame level of 18.75 million bags recorded in previous coffee year. Production for Asia & Oceania isexpected to fall by 1.1% from 49.45 million bags in 2019/20 to 48.91 millionin 2020/21. Production inCentral America and Mexico is provisionally set to decrease by 2.1% at 19.19 million bags against
19.60 million bags in coffee year 2019/20. An increase of 1.9% in production is expected from SouthAmerica at 82.79 million bags, as compared to 81.21 million bags in 2019/20. Harvesting for crop year
2020/21 has been completed in all producing countriesand the focus of the market is expected to turn tooutput from crop year 2021/22 as well as from2022/23. The uncertainty created by weather-related shocks
and potential disruptions in trade flows from stricter pandemic-related measures has become a serious
threat to the regularity of green coffee supply. Moreover, increasing transaction and production costs,including fertilizers and labour costs, along with substantial increases in the transport costs are expected
to reduce growers’ current gains from increased prices and slow down investmentsin production.

4Coffee Market Report – October 2021

Figure 5: World Production

Million 60-kg bags

200
150
100
500

2010/112012/132014/15

Colombian Milds

Other Milds

2016/172018/19

Brazilian Naturals

2020/21

Robustas

World coffee consumption is resuming its steady growth of the last 10 years as before the outbreakof thecovid-19 pandemic. It is projected to rise by 1.9% to 167.15 million bags in 2020/21 as compared to164.02 million bags for coffee year 2019/20. With the prospect of further easing ofpandemic restrictions
related to covid-19 and subsequent expectations of economic recovery, worldconsumption is expected tocontinue growing. Over the last 10 coffee years the average growthof world consumption has been 1.9%
per year boosted by significant increase in emerging markets versus more stable trends in traditional coffee
consuming markets. The inelasticity of world consumption is expectedto tighten the demand and supply
ratio and increase the possibility of the current upward trends of coffee prices continuing.
Exports of all forms of coffee in September 2021 totalled 10.07 million bags, down 4.9% compared to10.60 million bags in September 2020. The 8.4% decline in the shipments of Arabica from 6.03 million bagsin September 2020 to 5.52 million bags in September 2021 was not offset by a 0.8% decline of the Robusta
coffee exports from 3.50 million bags in September 2020 to 3.47 million bags in September 2021. The
steepest decrease was recorded by Brazilian Naturals, down from 3.55 million bags in September 2020 to2.77 million bags in September 2021. Over the same period, exports of the OtherMilds and ColombianMilds increased by 5.8% and 22.8% respectively. Cumulative exports of allforms of coffee during the coffee
year 2020/21 (October 2020 –September 2021) increased by 1.3% to 129.03 million bags, as compared to127.36 million bags during coffee year 2019/20. Cumulative exports of green coffee amounted to 116.87
million bags in coffee year 2020/21, an increase of 1.8% as compared to 114.83 million bags for coffee year
2019/20. The pattern of totalexports by exporting countries is still dominated by green coffee, which
represented 90.6% and 90.2% of total exports, respectively, during coffee years 2020/21 and 2019/20.

Coffee Market Report – October 2021

5thousand 60-kg bags

Figure 6: Total Exports (October-September)
70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000South America
2017/18

Asia & Oceania
2018/192019/20

AfricaCentral America &Mexico

2020/21

In terms of regional performance during the coffee year 2020/21, cumulative shipments of South America
increased by 3.2% to 59.52 million bags as compared to 57.67 million bags in 2019/20. Exports by Brazil
increased by 5.0% to 43.04 million bags from 41.01 million bags in 2019/20. Exports by Colombia remained
relatively stable with a 1.5% from 12.64 million bags in the coffee year 2019/20 to 12.83 million bags for the 2020/21
coffee year. Totalexports of Peru declined by 11.2% to 3.16 million in 2020/21 from 3.56 million in thesame period in 2019/20. Exports of Asia & Oceania over the first twelve months of coffee year 2020/21fell by 3.2% from 40.06 million bags in October 2019 to September 2020 to 38.76 million bags in 2020/21.
Exports decreased by 7.5% in Vietnam from 26.54 million bags in 2019/20 to 25.56 million bagsin 2020/21.
Exports of India increased by 12.0% from 5.13 million bags in 2019/20 to 5.96 millionbags in 2020/21.
Cumulative exports from Central America and Mexico during the first twelve months of coffee year
2020/21 increased by 5 .1% to 1 6 . 8 0 million bags, as compared to 15.98 million bags over thesame period during coffee year 2019/20. Honduras is recovering steadily from two natural disasters causedby hurricanes Iota and Eta with its cumulative exports increasing by 6.7% to 5.87 million bags in 2020/21
as compared to 5.51 million bags in 2019/20. Nicaragua, which suffered the same climatic disasters as
Honduras, has recorded a 4.5%decline of exports from 2.74 million bags in 2019/20 to 2.61 million bags in
2020/21. Export volume increases of 12.7% and 4.3% were observed in Guatemala and Mexico,respectively.
Costa Rica’s exports declined by 1.8%. An increase of 5.8% was also observed in El Salvador. Cumulative
exports by Africaincreased by 2.2% to 13.95 million bags as compared to 13.64 million bags in 2019/20.
Exports rose in Uganda (21.4%), Tanzania (25.0%) and Kenya (5.9%). Over the same period exports
decreased by 12.2% and 49.0% in Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire respectively.

6Coffee Market Report – October 2021

million 60-kg bags

Figure 7: Total Exports (October-September)
160
140
120
1008060402002017/18

2018/19
Green

Coffee Market Report – October 2021

Roasted2019/20

2020/21

Soluble7

Table 1: ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb)
Colombian Other Brazilian
ICO Composite
Robustas
Milds Milds Naturals
Monthly averages
Oct-20105.85154.28 152.06
100.37
68.36
Nov-20109.70161.21 150.73
106.41
72.38
Dec-20114.74170.44 157.81
114.96
72.04
Jan-21115.73173.42 160.69
116.6970.71
Feb-21
119.35176.96 166.43
120.06
73.37
Mar-21120.36
177.49 167.05
122.1673.86
Apr-21122.03181.70 168.65
124.1874.47
May-21134.78199.02 186.46
140.8579.68
Jun-21141.03
206.53 192.45
148.12
84.85
Jul-21152.24218.66 204.29
160.62
94.37
Aug-21160.14225.40 216.24
174.8995.18
Sep-21170.02240.38 225.54
183.72104.6
Oct-21181.57258.87 241.06
199.98 105.24% change between Sep-21 and Oct-21
6.8%
7.7% 6.9%
8.9%
0.6%
Volatility (%)
Sep-21
8.2%
9.1% 9.1%
10.5%
7.5%
Oct-21
8.3%
8.6% 9.5%
10.7%
5.3%
Variation between Sep-21 and Oct-21
0.1
-0.5
0.4
0.2
-2.2ndrd* Average prices for 2 and 3 positions
Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb)
ColombianColombian
Milds
Milds
Other Milds
Brazilian
Naturals
Oct-202.22
53.91
Nov-2010.48
54.80
Dec-20
12.63
55.48
Jan-21
12.73
56.73
Feb-21
10.53
56.90
Mar-21
10.44
55.33
Apr-21
13.05
57.52
May-21
12.56
58.17
Jun-21
14.09
58.41
Jul-21
14.36
58.03
Aug-21
9.16
50.51
Sep-21
14.84
56.66
Oct-21
17.81
58.89% change between Sep-21 and Oct-21
20.0%
3.9%
ndrd
* Average prices for 2 and 3 positions

8

Colombian
Milds
Robustas

OtherMilds

OtherMilds
Robustas

85.92
88.83
98.40
102.71103.59103.63107.23
119.34121.68124.29130.22135.78153.63

Brazilian
Naturals
51.69
44.32
42.85
44.00
46.37
44.89
44.47
45.61
44.32
43.67
41.35
41.82
41.08

13.1%

-1.8%

NewLondon*
York*
110.70115.48124.46127.59129.69131.72134.77152.42156.43168.55181.93191.3
206.05

59.14
62.82
62.41
60.54
63.07
63.90
63.76
69.15
73.16
81.17
84.72
94.91
96.36

7.7%

1.5%

10.1%
11.1%

7.8%
5.6%

1.0

-2.2

Brazilian
Naturals
Robustas

New York*

83.70
78.35
85.77
89.98
93.06
93.19
94.18
106.78107.59109.93121.06120.94135.82

32.01
34.03
42.92
45.98
46.69
48.30
49.71
61.17
63.27
66.26
79.71
79.12
94.74

51.56
52.66
62.05
67.05
66.62
67.82
71.01
83.27
83.26
87.39
97.20
96.39
109.69

12.3%

19.7%

13.8%

London*Coffee Market Report – October 2021

Table 3: World Supply/Demand Balance

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020*%
change
2019/20

160,608

167,868

170,332

168,979

169,635

0.4%

Arabica

99,94098,18799,927

97,06899,262

2.3%

Robusta

60,66869,68070,40571,911

70,375-2.1%

Africa16,83917,461

18,586

18,72618,747

0.1%

Asia & Oceania

47,93052,203

48,17349,44848,909-1.1%

Mexico & Central America

20,322

21,752

21,64019,59819,194-2.1%

South America

75,51676,453

81,934

81,20882,785

1.9%

CONSUMPTION

Coffee year commencing
PRODUCTION

158,527

161,765

167,535

164,019

167,148

1.9%

Exporting countries

48,334

49,68650,24549,99550,493

1.0%

Importing countries (Coffee Years)

110,193

112,079

117,290

114,024

116,655

2.3%

Africa10,668

11,344

11,927

11,726

11,9692.1%

Asia & Oceania

34,78135,14736,21935,801

36,271

1.3%

Mexico & Central America

5,194

5,273

5,431

5,347

5,381

0.6%

Europe52,20353,14255,05353,56654,504

1.8%

North America

29,55929,941

31,77930,62831,768

3.7%South America

26,123

26,91827,126

26,951

27,255

1.1%

BALANCE

2,081

6,103

2,797

4,960

2,487

*preliminary estimates
As the figures in this table are on a coffee year basis, these estimates will vary from the figures published in Table
1 of Coffee Production Report (http://www.ico.org/prices/po-production.pdf ), which contains crop year data. Forfurther details, see the explanatory note at the end of this report.
Table 4: Total exports by exporting countries
Sep-20
Sep-21% change

October-September
2019/20
2020/21 % change
127,362
128,931
1.2%
78,661
81,886
4.1%
13,897
14,144
1.8%
25,05225,785
2.9%
39,712
41,957
5.7%
48,70147,044-3.4%

TOTAL
10,591
10,074-4.9%
Arabicas
6,572
6,097
-7.2%
Colombian Milds
953
1,168
22.5%
Other Milds
1,833
1,914
4.4%
Brazilian Naturals
3,785
3,015
-20.4%
Robustas
4,019
3,977-1.0%In thousand 60-kg bags
Monthly trade statistics are available on the ICO website at www.ico.org/trade_statistics.asp

Table 5: Certified stocks on the New York and London futures markets
NovDecJanFebMarAprMay20
20
21
21
21
21
21
NewYork
1.40
1.52
1.75
1.92
1.97
2.07
2.21

Jun21

Jul21

Aug21

Sep21

Oct21

2.33

2.32

2.31

2.27

2.01

London

2.53

2.43

2.31

2.09

1.97

2.24

2.31

2.40

2.44

2.50

2.53

2.67

In million 60-kg bags

Coffee Market Report – October 2021

9Explanatory Note for table 3
For each year, the Secretariat uses statistics received from Members to provide estimates and forecasts forannual production, consumption, trade and stocks. As noted in paragraph 100 of document ICC 120-16, thesestatistics can be supplemented and complemented by data from other sources when information received from
Members is incomplete, delayed or inconsistent. The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating
supply and demand balance sheetsfor non-Members.
The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year, that is the coffee year commencing on 1October of eachyear, when looking at the global supply and demand balance. Coffee-producing countries are located indifferent regions around the world, with various crop years, i.e. the 12- month period from one harvest to thenext. The crop years currently used by the Secretariat commence on 1 April, 1 July and 1 October. To maintainconsistency, the Secretariat converts production data from a crop year basis to a marketing year basis
depending on the harvest months for each country. Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply anddemand, as well as prices ensures that analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.
For example, the 2018/19 coffee year began on 1 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.However, forproducers with crop years commencing on 1 April, the crop year production occursacross two coffee years.
Brazil’s 2018/19 crop year began on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March2019, covering the first half of coffeeyear 2018/19. However, Brazil’s 2019/20 crop year commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020,
covering the latter half of coffee year 2019/20. In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffeeyear, the Secretariat would allocate a portion of the April-March 2018/19 crop year production and a portionof the April-March 2019/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.
It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individualcountry, theseare made for the purpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand balance for analytical purposesand does not represent the production occurring on the ground within the individual countries.

10Coffee Market Report – October 2021