What Really Happened at COP-28 in Dubai

Robert N. Stavins
A. J. Meyer Professor of Energy and Economic Development, Harvard Kennedy School
Director, Harvard Environmental Economics Program
Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreement

ALPS Symposium
Tokyo, Japan
March 8, 2024

COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (December 2023)• Press hailed COP28 as a great success or a distinct failure, …
… largely based on one sentence in the closing statement about the future of fossil fuels …

… endorsing “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner”• CompromiseAbove endorsement (instead of “phasing down” or “phasing out” fossil fuels) was combined withendorsement of “renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies,” plus …
 … endorsement of tripling global renewable-energy capacity and doubling annual rate of energyefficiency improvements

Resulted in broad approval (by oil-producing Middle East countries, industrialized and developing countries)• A Vacuous Statement about Future Aspirations … or a “Paradigm Shift?” (COP 28 President AlJaber)Essentially a non-binding resolution about future ambitions, but statement – and its press coverage – mayhave symbolic, signaling value
1So, Was COP28 a Success or a Failure?
• Most COPs are neither successes nor failuresExcept when a new agreement is reached (Kyoto Protocol, 1997; Paris Agreement, 2015), the COPs havemuch in common with the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, SwitzerlandBoth are complex get-togethers, based on bottom-up processes.
 Corporate CEOs in Davos do not agree to take action, then go home to their Boards of Directors toimplement their Davos commitments
 Causality runs in the opposite direction

So too with COPs, the delegations from the 195 “Parties” bring to the COPs their domestic priorities.
 Each COP’s outcome is essentially the aggregation of those• What really drives action around the world (i.e., cuts in GHG emissions) is largely thecombination of market realities and public policies.
Policies are largely enacted at the national level, and sometimes the sub-national level



Those policies are linked with what happens at the annual COPs, but the direction of causation isfundamentally bottom-up, not top-down.

2What was the most important COP28 development?
• Recall: most important development during COP27 occurred 6,000 miles away in Bali, Indonesia.
U.S. President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping met on sidelines of G20 Summit for a 3-hour meeting,signaled their return to cooperation on climate change (2022)

Statement of cooperation trickled down to leaders of two negotiating teams – John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua• Even before COP28, they signaled that China and USA might really resume co-leadership

Two weeks before COP28, the most important development for COP-28 (Dubai) took place 8,000 miles away

In Sunnylands, California, same two heads of state met and signaled in writing (“Sunnylands Statement”)
renewed cooperation on climate changeU.S.-China cooperation is essential for meaningful progress on climate change, …

… and the Sunnylands Statement — jointly signed by the two presidents in November 2023 – may ultimately
be more important than any individual accomplishment at COP-28 in Dubai.
3Reminder about the Evolution of the Annual COPs
• UNFCCC specifies any non-governmental entity, which is qualified re topics of Convention can berepresented at the Conference of the Parties as an observer (UNFCCC 1992, Article 7, paragraph 6)
An explicit role for observer organizations from civil society (NGOs, trade associations, universities, etc.)• Evolution over Time

Gradual changes in relative importance and prominence of core country delegations of negotiators versus
observers from civil society

Sixteen years ago (my first COP), 90-95% of meaningful action was in the negotiations, with 5-10% among theparticipants from civil society

By the time of COP28, 10% of meaningful action was within the negotiations, and 90% among the official“Side Events,” unofficial presentations and sessions, meetings, and interactions among gov’ts and civil society.



The COP is, to a large degree, a “trade fair” with entrepreneurs of all kinds promoting their products



The COP is a circus in which the “main event” is eclipsed with increasing frequency by the “side shows”• Hence, I christened the festivities in Dubai, “Climate Expo 2023”
Not cynicism or even skepticism, because like Davos, the Climate Expo plays a role

Great example of this in Dubai were events targeting a specific non-CO2 greenhouse gas – methane.

4The Prominence of Methane at COP28• Methane received greatly increased attention from civil society (business associations, NGOs)
Reminder: CH4 has much greater radiative forcing per unit than CO2, but much shorter atmospheric lifetime
 Over 100 years, radiative forcing per unit of CH4 20 times > CO2; over 20 years, 80 times > CO2
 Methane emissions account for 30% of warming since pre-industrial times, and nearly half this decadeIncluded Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions (4 presentations, 20+ meetings)

Can be in financial interests of O&G companies to reduce emissions• Multiple Developments


New U.S. EPA regulations to cut O&G CH4 emissions by 80%, & $1 billion pledged help for poor countriesGlobal Methane Pledge (to cut global CH4 emissions by 30% by 2030) expanded to 155 countries – with
Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, & others joiningU.S., China, & UAE held a methane summit

World Bank Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership, Global Methane Hub, Oil and Gas Methane
Partnership 2.0 (120 companies in 60 countries covering 35% of production), Oil and Gas Climate Initiative’s
Satellite Monitoring Campaign

Will pledges and actions from private industry, NGOs, and governments yield real emissions reductions?

5Disappointments and Progress at COP28• Two Disappointments


Adaptation received great attention in COP28 Decision, but not Funding Perhaps because of diverted attention: Loss and Damage Fund contributions reached $700 million (butless than 1% of likely eventual L&D demand)Major Setbacks for Article 6
 Some countries tried to re-open what had been settled issues regarding nature of Article 6.2 mechanism
 General politicization of Article 6; steps toward implementation blocked• Path Ahead“COP28 was a coming-out party for private-sector climate action” (Nathaniel Keohane, president, C2ES)
 Hundreds of companies from diverse sectors showcased climate-friendly technologies, management
practices, adaptation, and finance A negative or positive development?

COP28 completed first 5-year Global Stocktake; countries will submit new NDCs by COP30



The marathon (not sprint) continues to COP29 (Baku, Azerbaijan, 2024) & COP30 (Brazil, 2025)

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Thank You!
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For More Information
Harvard Project on Climate Agreementswww.belfercenter.org/climate

Harvard Environmental Economics Program
www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/heep

Websitewww.stavins.com

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