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Trends Related to CCS Business Environment Establishment in Japan－Background and Final Summary of
the CCS Long-Term Roadmap－
Research & Coordination Group
Makoto Nomura, Deputy Group Leader, Chief Researcher
Jun-ichi Shimizu, Associate Chief Researcher

1. Introduction

Japan is working to reduce GHG emissions to achieve

Reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is an im-

carbon neutrality (CN) by 2050 and a 46% reduction in

portant global challenge. Under the Paris Agreement

GHG emissions (compared with the 2013 level) by(effective November 4, 2016), which is the international

FY2030, based on the “Plan for Global Warming Coun-framework for tackling climate change issues in 2020

termeasures,” the “Strategic Energy Plan,” etc. Underand later, efforts will be made to keep the averagethese circumstances, the CCS Long-Term Roadmap

global temperature increase well below 2°C compared

Study Group, which was established in January 2022,with the pre-industrial level, and limit it to 1.5°C as apublished the “Final Summary by the Long-Term CCS

common long-term goal for the world. It also stipulates

Roadmap Study Group” in March 2023 as a result of its

that global GHG emissions should peak out as soon as

year-long activities. This article reports on its overview.

possible, and we should ensure a balance between GHG(Table 1 shows the main policies for carbon dioxide cap-emissions and absorption by forests, etc. in the second

ture and storage (CCS)/carbon capture utilization

half of this century1).

(CCUS) in Japan for the immediate future.)
Table 1 Main policies for CCS/CCUS

Roadmap for Carbon Recycling Technologies (formulated June 7, 2019) 2)
 Carbon recycling technology, which treats CO2 as a resource, separates and recovers it, and reuses it as diverse
carbon compounds, and it is one of the promising options for the future, and we will accelerate innovation in thisarea.
Environment Innovation Strategy (formulated January 21, 2020)3)
 We position carbon recycling and CCUS technologies, which are essential for a significant reduction in CO 2 emissions, as one of the priority areas. Therefore, we will promote the realization of decarbonized and inexpensive energy
supply technologies, and make the greatest possible contribution to the reduction of GHG emissions domesticallyand globally. In particular, we aim to achieve a CO2 separation and recovery cost of 1,000 yen/t-CO2 by 2050 as a
low-cost CO2 separation and recovery technology that will be the foundation for CCUS/carbon recycling.
Policy speech by Prime Minister Suga (October 26, 2020)4)
 He declared, “our country aims to achieve zero overall GHG emissions by 2050, or a carbon-neutral, and decarbonized society by 2050.”
Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving Carbon Neutrality in 2050 (formulated on June 18, 2021) 5)
 This is a further embodiment of the growth strategy (an industrial policy to tackle the challenging goal of achievingcarbon neutrality by 2050) formulated on December 25, 2020.
 The power sector will demonstrate the importance of pursuing all options, such as maximizing the introduction ofrenewable energy and the use of nuclear power, as well as promoting decarbonization through use of hydrogen,ammonia and CCUS.

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Long-Term Strategy under the Paris Agreement as Growth Strategy (Cabinet decision on October 22, 2021) 6)
 While the previous long-term strategy was approved by the Cabinet on June 11, 2019, this was the resulting strategy
which later positioned the 2050 carbon neutrality declaration in October 2020 as the basic idea and was decided by
the Cabinet.
 Measures against global warming are not a constraint on economic growth, but the key to transforming the economy and society in a major way, encouraging investment, increasing productivity, and creating a major shift inindustrial structure and strong growth.
 It states that in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, we will strive to introduce renewable energy to the
maximum extent possible, promote the implementation of hydrogen and CCUS in society, and try to secure publictrust in nuclear power, so that we can make sustained use on the necessary scale on the premise of ensuring safety.
Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (Cabinet decision on October 22, 2021)7)
 It presents goals related to the amount of GHG emissions control and absorption, basic matters related to measures
to be taken by businesses, citizens, etc., and measures to be taken by the national and local governments to achieve
the goals.
 It specifies that Japan will aim to reduce GHG gas emissions by 46% by FY2030 compared with the FY2013 level, andthat it will continue to take on the challenge to reach the 50% reduction level.
The 6th Strategic Energy Plan (Cabinet decision on October 22, 2021)8)
 It will lay out a path for energy policy to achieve new reduction targets of carbon neutrality by 2050, namely, a
46% reduction by FY2030, and aim for a further 50%.
 In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, we will strive to introduce renewable energy to the maximum extent
possible, promote the implementation of hydrogen and CCUS in society, and try to secure public trust in nuclear
power, so that we can make sustained use on the necessary scale and on the premise of ensuring safety.
 In order to introduce CCS on the premise of commercialization by 2030, the roadmap for CCS implementation will
be drawn up and shared, and efforts will be made to build a model base jointly between the government and private sector for technological development, suitable site development, transportation demonstration, business environment establishment, and network optimization.
 In addition to securing a stable supply of oil, natural gas, and mineral resources, we will develop a new “comprehensive resource diplomacy” to promote, in an integrated manner, the construction of hydrogen and ammonia
supply chains and the securing of suitable sites for CCS using the networks we have cultivated with resource-richcountries through resource diplomacy.

1.1. Positioning of CCS Technologies in the 6th Strategicand demand structure. The initiatives presented are

Energy Plan

based on the basic policy of “S + 3E (safety + stable

The 6th Strategic Energy Plan8), which was approved

energy supply, improved economic efficiency, environ-by the Cabinet in October 2021, has two main objec-

mental compliance)” while advancing measures to com-

tives. One is addressing the issue of climate change. The

bat climate change.

plan lays out a path for an energy policy to realize theIn the 6th Strategic Energy Plan, CCS is positioned asambitious reduction targets of “carbon neutrality bya technology that should be fully utilized together with

2050,” announced by Prime Minister Suga in his policy

CCU to reduce CO2 emissions from industries where de-speech in October 2020, and “reduction in GHG emis-

carbonization at thermal power plants as well as decar-

sions by 46% by FY2030 (compared with FY2013) andbonization using electrification and hydrogen are con-

aim for a higher 50% reduction” announced at thesidered difficult. CCS is also positioned as an important

meeting of the Global Warming Prevention Headquar-technology for securing the necessary resources andters in April 2021. The other objective concerns over-fuel in a stable manner into the future. CCS is thus seen

coming the challenges posed by Japan’s energy supply

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as one of the “key” options along with renewable en-

3. Overview of the “Final Summary by the CCS Long-ergy, nuclear power, hydrogen and ammonia, and CCU

Term Roadmap Study Group”10)

to achieve both decarbonization and energy stability inThis section provides an overview of the “final sum-

our country. In addition, as a response to the utilization

mary by the CCS Long-Term Roadmap Study Group,”of CCS, it is clearly stated that a long-term road map will

which was published in March 2023.

be prepared and shared with the relevant parties in or-

3.1. Global trends toward CCS commercialization

der to establish the technology, reduce costs, develop

The global situation surrounding CCS has shifted

an environment for suitable land development, andfrom skepticism to policy adoption. In addition to thehave commercialization.

bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA),
the United States enacted a 10-year CCS program worth

2. CCS Long-Term Roadmap Study Group

50 trillion yen (the Inflation Reduction Act) in August

As specified in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan, the CCS

2022, which has been described as an “unprecedented

Long-Term Roadmap Study Group was established in

CCS boom,” and has had a major impact on interna-

January 2022 to examine the establishment and cost re-tional opinions. China specified the annual storage

duction of CCS technologies, development of suitableamount of 2 billion tons as its target for 2050, and issites, and development of an environment for commer-

shifting to promoting CCS, including building relation-

cialization, and prepare a long-term CCS roadmap . The

ships with other countries, in addition to domestic de-

CCS Long-Term Roadmap Study Group is comprised ofvelopment. While Germany had been negative about

members from academia, industry, research institutions,the CCUS, it started at the end of last year to accept it

etc., and has held five discussions on a monthly basis

and began to develop domestic policies. Other coun-

after holding its first meeting in January 2022 to publish

tries are also moving toward the introduction of CCS

the Intermediate Summary in May 2022.

policies, ushering in the “era of great competition” for9)

Furthermore, in September 2022, the “CCS business

CO2 storage land. In addition, many ongoing projects

domestic law review working group” to discuss various

are developing aquifer storage areas without enhanced

issues for the establishment of domestic laws on CCS

oil recovery (EOR).

businesses, and the “CCS business cost and implementation scheme review working group” to discuss the

3.2. CCS Long-Term Roadmap

current cost and future cost targets for the entire CCS

3.2.1. Basic philosophy

value chain and how government support should be

The basic philosophy of the CCS Long-Term Roadmap

provided, were established to hold intensive discussions.

is stated as follows; “the purpose of this roadmap is toBased on the findings of these two working groups,

promote sound development of CCS businesses in our

the discussion to prepare the final summary was held atcountry while minimizing social costs by implementing

the 6th meeting of the CCS Long-Term Roadmap StudyCCS systematically and rationally, thereby contributing

Group (joint meeting of CCS business cost and imple-

to economic and industrial development of our country,

mentation scheme review working group and CCS busi-

securing stable energy supply and achieving carbon

ness domestic law review working group) on January 26,

neutrality.”

2023.

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3.2.2. Goals of the CCS Long-Term Roadmap

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In order to establish a business model that can be ex-

Based on the results of the IEA’s estimate of CO2 re-panded laterally for the spread and expansion of thecovery amount under the global decarbonization sce-

CCS businesses in the future, the government will selectnario and Japan’s share of CO2 emissions, the estimated“advanced CCS businesses” led by business operators

annual CCS storage amount as of 2050 is approximately

and provide more intensive support with the aim of

120 million to 240 million tons. If CCS is to be intro-

starting the businesses by 2030.

duced in 2030, it will be necessary to launch CCS pro-Specifically, support will start for three to five projects

jects every year for 20 years until 2050 to increase thewith different combinations of CO2 recovery sources,

annual storage amount by approximately 6 million totransportation methods, and CO2 storage areas to es-

12 million tons, and postponing the implementation of

tablish diverse CCS business models, and they will aim

CCS will make it difficult to secure the annual storage

to secure an annual storage amount of 6 million to 12

amount necessary to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

million tons by 2030.

Therefore, with the aim of achieving an annual CO 2

As a model, the project will focus on large-scale op-

storage amount of approximately 120 million to 240

erations and dramatic cost reduction through the clus-

million tons as of 2050, the goal is to establish the busi-

tering of CO2 recovery sources and formation of hubs

ness environment (cost reduction, public understanding,of CO2 storage areas.

promotion of overseas CCS, and legal development),

When selecting a project, matters will be confirmed

and launch CCS businesses by 2030 with a view to com-with a focus on whether business is heading in a direc-

mencing full-fledged operations in 2030 and onward.

tion to gain people’s understanding of CO2 storage areas, and whether it will contribute to the development

3.2.3. Specific actions
The following specific actions will be taken as needed,with the period until the start of the CCS business inof CCS projects in the future, in addition to examining
the early feasibility, scalability and economic efficiencyof the project.

2030 designated as the period of business model development and the period after that as the period offull-scale CCS development.
(1)

Government support for CCS businesses(2)

Initiatives to reduce CCS costs(3)

Promotion of public understanding of CCS busi-

Table 2 Possible sources of CO2 recovery, methods oftransport, and patterns of CO2 storage
Source of CO2
recovery
Thermal power
plantsChemical plants(4)

Promotion of overseas CCS businesses

Cement plants(5)

Examination for the development of the CCS Busi-(6)

Development and review of the “CCS action plan”(1) Government support for CCS businesses① Support for advanced, model-oriented CCS businesses

CO2 storage area

Underground ina land area

Steelworks

nessesness Act

Method oftransportation

Pipelines
Ships

Paper mills
Hydrogen production plants, etc.

Under the seabed(coastal areas)
Under the seabed(offshore)② Promotion of development of suitable sites for
CCS/geological structure survey
While geological structure surveys have been con-8

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ducted for the purpose of oil and natural gas develop-

Although we will provide CAPEX support for thement in the past, they will also be conducted for thelaunch of the CCS businesses for the time being, we will

purpose of CCS starting in FY2023. In the future, Japan

examine the CCS business models for operational sup-Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC)

port, which will start in 2030, with reference to the latest

will examine plans for investigation of suitable sites forfindings from the UK and other countries that are ahead

CCS and loan survey data to private companies.

of us.

Research to date has estimated that there are storage

In addition, seamless support measures will be exam-

reservoirs amounting to a total of 16 billion tons at 11

ined from the perspective of ensuring the sustainabilitysites. For the time being, analysis and evaluation of eco-of CCS for CSS businesses after the “advanced CCS busi-

nomic efficiency, etc. have been conducted by private

nesses,” based on the status of cost reduction and de-companies and they are expected to lead to develop-

velopment of the business environment.

ment activities such as exploratory drilling. However,data on coastal areas that are close to CO2 emission
sources and are expected to be lower in transportation
costs, are scarce, making development difficult.

(2) Initiatives to reduce CCS costs
By setting the CCS cost targets for 2050 as one-fourthor lower for the separation and recovery costs, 70% or

In addition, fault risk assessment is one of the im-less for the transportation costs, and 80% or lower for

portant factors when considering suitable sites for CCS.

storage costs, we expect to reduce the overall CCS costs

The International Energy Agency (IEA) will urgently ex-

in 2050 to approximately 60% or less compared withamine development of the method to assess the risks2023. In addition, the target cost of separation and re-from geographic faults, although no previous demon-covery by 2030 will be about half of the 2023 level.

stration project has recognized their relationship withearthquakes.

To achieve these goals, the government will create research and development guidelines and promote research and development as well as demonstration of③ Examination of sustainability of CCS businesses

technologies that can significantly reduce costs.

Table 3 Results of CCS cost reduction estimate under certain conditions (RITE)(Source) The 3rd CCS business cost and implementation scheme review working group (October 31, 2022)

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Feature(3) Promotion of public understanding of CCS busi-

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・

nessesporting and providing data on the composition of

For the time being until 2030, CCUS briefings will begases in the CCS value chain of CO2 separation andheld in each region at the initiative of the national government to provide careful explanations to give people

There are no rules for preparing, measuring, trans-

recovery, transport and storage.
・

There is no mechanism to eliminate or prevent in-

an understanding of the significance and burden of CCS,

terference from third parties in order to ensure

the safety of CCS, the investment effect in the region,

long-term business stability.

the effect of job creation, and the effect of promoting・

While the establishment of CCS needs to be carried

consumption, etc., and dispel concerns about CCS. In

out with the understanding of residents, there is no

areas where CO2 storage sites will be located, a mecha-

state of compliance with security regulations, nonism will be examined to support hubs and clusters cen-mechanism for compensation for damages, etc.,

tering on the CCS operated by local governments or pri-and it is not clear what the business operator

vate entities, related industries, and job creation activi-

should explain to residents.

ties.

・

The security and monitoring responsibilities of thestorage operator are unclear, and the business via-

(4) Promotion of overseas CCS businesses

bility cannot be ensured unless the responsibility is

Since utilization of the promising overseas storage

eliminated.

potential would be one of the leading options, we will

To this end, examination will be made with the fol-start concrete negotiations with several countries onlowing policies:

the premise of CO2 exports from Japan.

・In addition, the government will support the acquisition of interests by Japanese companies through the

Establish the CCS Business Act as a new law as soon
as possible.

・In light of the CCS value chain, the scope of the“Asia CCUS Network” based on the Asia Energy Transi-

Business Act should cover “separation and recov-

tion Initiative (AETI), which is led by Japan, through theery,” “transportation,” and “storage,” and the policy

provision of risk money by JOGMEC, etc. It will also sup-is to require notification in principle in order toport the launch of the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)

lower the barriers to introduction, since “separation

and an international credit system derived from CCS.

and collection” projects are likely to be carried out
by CO2 emitters in many cases, and “transportation”(5) Examination for the development of the CCS Busi-projects can be carried out by various means, suchness ActThe background to the need for measures in the legal
system regarding CCS businesses is explained below.
・

as pipelines and ship transportation.
・On the other hand, since the “storage” business has
many things in common with the oil and natural

The application of laws and regulations to CCS

gas business, the planned policy is to adopt a per-businesses (Mining Act, Mine Safety Act, etc.) is not

mit system and take measures to enable exclusive

clear, and the rules to be followed on the businessuse of the CO2 storage reservoirs. In addition, refer-

operator side and the system of national supervi-ring to mining legislation, the policy is to takesion are ambiguous.

measures such as the establishment of a “common

10Featuresystem for land and sea” and a “new storage busi-

https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/ic/ch/page1w_00011

ness right,” the development of a security system

9.htmland clarification of liability for compensation (no-・

RITE Today 2023

2)

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (coop-

fault liability), and the limitation of monitoring re-erating ministries and agencies: Cabinet Office, thesponsibility.

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science andIn addition to the measures to provide a legal

Technology, and the Ministry of the Environment),

framework for the export of CO2 to promote over-Roadmap for Carbon Recycling Technologies, Juneseas CCS, the policy is to make recovered CO2 avail-2019

able for sale to promote CCU/carbon recycling.

https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2021/07/20210726007/20210726007.html(6) Development and review of the “CCS action plan”

3)

A CCS action plan will be developed and reviewed in

https://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/12358320/www

a timely manner after a more detailed review of CCS annual storage amount targets, cost targets, technology

Environment Innovation Strategy, January 21, 2020

8.cao.go.jp/cstp/tougosenryaku/kankyo.pdf
4)

Policy speech by Prime Minister Suga at the 203rd

development guidelines and suitable site investigation

session of the Diet, October 26, 2020

plans. Therefore, a panel of experts will discuss the mat-https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/99_suga/state-

ter this fiscal year.

ment/2020/1026shoshinhyomei.html

The “annual storage amount target” will be further re-

5)

Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving Carbon

fined based on the progress of other decarbonization

Neutrality in 2050, Cabinet Secretariat, the Ministry

initiatives, as well as the refinement of the annual stor-of Economy, Trade and Industry, Cabinet Office, theage amount target to be achieved by 2050 by gathering

Financial Services Agency, the Ministry of Internalindustry opinions.

Affairs and Communications, the Ministry of Foreign

With regard to “cost targets/technology develop-

Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,

ment guidelines,” technical development guidelines will

Science and Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture,

be prepared to achieve the targets after reviewing theForestry and Fisheries, the Ministry of Land, Infra-

CCS cost targets as necessary. Further refinements will

structure, Transport and Tourism, and the Ministry of

be made based on progress in reducing costs.

the Environment, June 18, 2021

With regard to the “suitable site investigation plan,”

https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environ-efforts will be made to estimate the location of suitablesites for CO2 storage in areas where existing data arement/global_warming/ggs/pdf/green_honbun.pdf
6)Long-Term Strategy under the Paris Agreement asavailable, while also examining the possibilities of geo-

Growth Strategy (Cabinet decision on October 22,

logical structure surveys in coastal areas. The methods

2021)

for assessment of risks posed by geographic faults will

https://www.env.go.jp/content/900440767.pdf

also be examined.

7)

Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (Cabinet
decision on October 22, 2021)

References

https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environ-1)

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Framework fromment/global_warming/ontaikeikaku/keikaku_hon-

2020: Paris Agreement

bun.pdf

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8)

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The 6th Strategic Energy Plan (Cabinet decision on
October 22, 2021)
https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2021/10/20211022005/20211022005-1.pdf

9)

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CCS
Long-Term Roadmap Study Grouphttps://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/energy_environment/ccs_choki_roadmap/index.html

10) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, final
summary of the CCS Long-Term Roadmap
https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/energy_environment/ccs_choki_roadmap/20230310_report.html

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