French-Japanese
Webinar in
Economics (FJWE)

French-Japanese Webinar in Economics
Main objectives
This webinar (virtual seminar) aims to bring together researchers from Japaneseand French universities, research centers and economic policy think tanks to
exchange and share their research results (work in progress, finalized papers,
drafts, informal talks) on all aspects of economics (both theoretical and empirical
work in any subject of the field).
This webinar is a good platform to discuss the most recent innovations andtrends as well as challenges in different fields of Economics. It is also an
opportunity to establish collaborations between French and Japanese colleagues
and researchers.

French-Japanese Webinar in Economics
Organization
The organization of the webinar is under the responsibility of two researchers,
one in Japan and the other in France. For the period from October 2022 to
October 2023, Prof. Kiyotaka Sato from Yokohama National University (YNU) andProf. Gilles Dufrénot from the Aix-Marseille School of Economics and Sciences Po
Aix will take on the responsibility of the seminar.
The principle of organization is as follows. Once a month, two researchers fromeach country (France and Japan) present a paper. Each presentation lasts 30
minutes and is followed by another 30 minutes discussions/questions with theparticipants. The webinar therefore lasts 2 hours in total.

French-Japanese Webinar in Economics
Time schedule
Summer time (from the last week of March to the third week of October)France 10:00-12:00
Japan 17:00-19:00
Winter time (from the last week of October to the third week of March)
France 9:00-11:00
Japan 17:00-19:00

21 October 2022
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Frédérique BEC, University of Cergy Pontoise

Topic : Econometrics
Title : Power of unit root tests against nonlinear and noncausal alternatives
Co-authors : Alain Guayz, Heino Bohn Nielsen & Sarra Saïdi
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yes

The increasing sophistication of economic and financial time series modelling creates a need for a test of
the time dependence structure of the series which does not require a proper specifcation of thealternative. Indeed, the latter is unknown beforehand. Yet, the stationarity has to be established before
proceeding to the estimation and testing of causal/noncausal or linear/nonlinear models as theireconometric theory has been developed under the maintained assumption of stationarity. In this paper,
we propose a new unit root test statistics which is both asymptotically consistent against all stationary
alternatives and still keeps good power properties in finite sample. A large simulation study is performed
to assess the power of our test compared to existing unit root tests built specically for various kinds ofstationary alternatives, when the true DGP is either causal or noncausal, linear or nonlinear stationary.
Based on various sample sizes and degrees of persistence, it turns out that our new test performs very
well in terms of power in fnite sample, no matter the alternative under consideration.
Keywords : Unit roots, Nonlinear models, Parametric tests

21 October 2022
France 11:00-12:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Craig PARSONS, Yokohama National University

Topic : Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Title : The Effect of GVC Participation on Greenfield FDI: An Industry-level Analysis
Co-authors : Vu Hong Ha
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yes

The study examines GVC participation as a determinant of inward greenfield FDI at the sectoral level. Our data spansfrom 2005 to 2015 covering 15 manufacturing industries for 64 host countries and 88 source countries. Overall, theresults show that more trade through GVCs will increase FDI inflows. Although we find that GVC participation, bothbackward and forward linkages, is positively associated with FDI, the effects are heterogeneous and depend on the
sector and the region. For policymakers, if the host country is in the later stages of production in Basic metals andRubber and plastic, policymakers may be well-advised to attempt to incentivize inward FDI into these sectors. This is
more strongly recommended when the country is located in Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and Pacific, and North
America. In contrast, Machinery and equipment does not seem to be a key sector for GVC-driven FDI policy. Also,
though the electronics industry is one of the most active industries in the global production chain, its elasticity is
positive, but not statistically significant.
Keywords : FDI, GVC, Industry-level
JEL Codes: F14, F23

18 November 2022
France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Neha DEOPA, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

Topic : African and Ecological Economies
Title : Sacred ecology : the environmental impact of African traditional religions
Co-authors :Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : noThis study examines whether culture, and in particular religion, exert an independent causal effect on ecologicaloutcomes. I focus on African Traditional Religions (ATR) whose cosmology reveres forests as a key sacred symbol andrely on the unique case of Benin where ATR adherence is freely reported. Estimates obtained using instrumental
variables, exploiting the variation in proximity to the Nigerian border, and a spatial regression discontinuity designusing the historical boundaries of the Kingdom of Dahomey reveal that higher adherence to ATR is associated with apositive five year average annual change in forest cover. I show that there is no evidence for this positive relationshipdue to the supernatural punishment hypothesis but rather the presence of a set of attitudes that reflect "spirit ofsustainability". Motivated by the empirical evidence, I build a mean-field game model, where the density of theaggregate forest cover is constantly affected by the decisions of a continuum of agents and vice versa. In myframework the adherence to ATR implies the association to a greater spiritual value to forest resources and hence
reduces the utility associated with forest consumption. The model shows how potential scarcity of natural resources
can define both individual and aggregate decisions, and how the collective characteristics of religious beliefs can be
key drivers of forest conservation.
JEL Codes: Z12, Q5, C61

18 November 2022
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Takamitsu KURITA, Kyoto Sangyo University

Topic : Cryptocurrencies and Monetary Policy
Title : Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators
Co-authors : Jennifer L. Castle
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yes

The rapid expansion of the global cryptocurrency market raises the question of whether there are stable relationships
between the prices of representative cryptocurrencies and economic indicators capturing expectations of future monetary
policy. In this paper multivariate time-series analysis reveal a single but significant cointegrating relationship between
cryptocurrencies and the term spread. This evidence reveals direct policy implications for the implementation of monetary
policy allowing for the growing influence of digital assets. While the cointegrating linkage plays a critical role in modelling
cryptocurrencies in sample, it contributes little to forecasting them out of sample, thus indicating potential efficiency in thedigital currency market.
Keywords : Cryptocurrencies, Economic indicators, Cointegration, Weak exogeneity, Policy simulation, Predictability, Market
efficiency
JEL Codes: C22, C50, E43, E44

16 December 2022
France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Taiyo YOSHIMI, Chuo University

Topic : International Finance
Title : Export Experience and the Choice of Invoice Currency: Evidence from Questionnaire Survey forJapanese SMEs
Co-authors : Mizuki Goto, Kazunobu Hayakawa & Satoshi Koibuchi
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yesThis study examines determinants of the invoice currency with a focus on the effect of export experiencebased on the questionnaire survey for Japanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the
manufacturing industry. We find that exporters with long experience in exporting tend to switch theinvoice currency from Japanese yen to foreign currencies. The interpretation is that export experience
provides firms with the know how to deal with the exchange rate risk and enables firms to use foreign
currencies in their exports. This effect survives even if firms intermittently export from their first export s.
We also find that the yen is more likely to be chosen in the first export when the age of the exporter ishigher, the sales value of the exporter is smaller, the exporter has an initiative in the determination of theinvoice currency and the exporter st arted exporting before the global financial crisis in 2007.
Keywords : Invoice currency, Export dynamics, Questionnaire survey, SMEs, JapanJEL Codes: F1, F3

16 December 2022
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Magali DUMONTET, University of Paris Nanterre

Topic : Public health
Title : Let the students choose ? Medical specialty and location preferences compared with supply of
residency position.
Co-authors : Cassandra Gorin, Olivier Palombi, Yann Renisio & Jonathan Sicsic
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : noIn this paper, we focus on the French national system for allocation of residency positions (NSAR). At the end of the 6thyear of medical studies, a national exam ranks all medical students. Then, depending on the ranking, medical students
sequentially choose from the available residency positions a specialty in a training region. In 2022, before the national
exam, we conducted a unique survey of participants of the NSAR to analyze preferences regarding specialty and training
region (N= 3269, 35% of the total 6th year medical studies population). We aimed to simulate the welfare impacts ofletting the students choose their preferred specialty and training region compared to the actual process based on students
ranking. Our main variable of interest is the residency position that students declared they would choose if all residency
positions were available (“the preferred residency position”). We compare this stated preference with the residency
position actually chosen (the “real” residency position). Based on this comparison we answer three research questions:what would the care supply look like if we were giving every 6th year students their first choice of residency position andhow strong is the discrepancy compared to the result based on national ranking? Among those whose aspirations do not
perfectly overlap with their possibilities: what second best choices they made and how region is traded against specialty?
Finally, do medical students finally choose what they stated they would prefer (stated preference) ? Finally, we discuss
potential mechanisms explaining the discrepancy between stated and observed choices as well as policy implications.

Keywords : Invoice currency, Export dynamics, Questionnaire survey, SMEs, Japan20 January 2023
France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Willem THORBECKE, Research Institute of
Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI)Topic : Trade relationships between Europe and East Asia
Title : East Asian and European Firms: Comrades or Competitors
Co-authors :Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yesThis paper examines the stock market exposures of sectors in France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea. If
a firm in one country competes with firms in another country, an appreciation of its currency relative to its
competitors’ currency should lower its profitability and its stock price. If a firm cooperates with firms in
another country by purchasing imported intermediates from them, an appreciation of its currency relative
to its comrades’ currency should increase its ability to purchase inputs and raise its profitability and stock
price. The results indicate that 60 percent of the sectors examined in France and Germany and 27 percentof the sectors examined in Korea benefit when their currency appreciates against the Japanese yen andthat virtually no sectors are harmed by yen depreciations. This implies that Japanese firms play a vital role
as suppliers of intermediate goods to firms in France, Germany, and Korea. By contrast, the results point
to substantial competition between European and Korean firms.
Keywords : Exchange rate exposure, stock returns, international trade
JEL Codes: G10, F14

20 January 2023
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Bruno VENTELOU, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

Topic : Health Economics
Title : Hysteresis in alcohol consumption trajectories after lockdown : the power of time preferences

Co-authors : Sophie Massin, Phu Nguyen-Van & Marc Willinger
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : no

Do individual time-preferences play a role in the self-regulation of the consumption trajectories of
addictive products? To answer this question, we study alcohol use during the lockdown period and after,
at an individual level. In an online survey (N=1038), we asked respondents to quantify their alcohol
consumption for three moments: January 2020, May 2020 and September 2021. We revealed timepreferences by the Andreoni-Sprenger elicitation task (properly incentivized), which allows to detect
people with a ‘present biased’ profile, with a regular profile, or with future biased profile –mutually
exclusive. Using a panel data approach, we tested the presence of a hysteresis effect, i.e. whether theshocks in use which occurred during lockdown lags behind the end of it and the return to normal-life. We
found that individuals who are future biased were the only ones who seemed to escape from hysteresis
in alcohol consumption. Our conclusion permits to relate economic time-preferences and “resilience”(here, in addictive consumption trajectories).
Keywords : Addiction, Alcohol consumption, Hysteresis

10 February 2023
France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Takashi Matsuki, Osaka Gakuin University

Topic : Economic growth
Title : Revisiting output convergence and economic growth determinants in 41 countries
Co-authors :Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : noThis paper investigates the long-run convergence of per capita output across OECD members and someemerging countries from 1953 to 2019. To confirm the existence of output convergence toward thereference country (the US), several unit root testing methods are employed. Moreover, to find possible
growth determinants to promote convergence, some stationary covariates for the tests are used. In
addition, the approach allows for the presence of endogenous structural breaks in the time series underinvestigation, to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential
economic events such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises.
We also examine whether some institutional factors help to hold the convergence hypothesis.
Keywords : Output convergence, Unit roots, Structural change, Growth determinants
JEL Codes: C12, C22, O47, O53

10 February 2023
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Bernard THOMANN,
French Research Institute on Japan

Topic : Social and political economy
Title : The "living wage" at the center of the social compromise of high-growth Japan?
Co-authors :Webpage

Paper available : No

Abstract
The project of a "living wage" (seikatsu-kyû), developed during the war on the basis of expertise built up
since the 1920s, and taken up again and improved by experts in the aftermath of the defeat, wasintegrated into the demands of the unions. It was thus adopted to a certain extent by many companies,
notably in the form of the so-called Densan wage model. This wage model was supposed to lead theJapanese economy out of a logic of low wages and to ensure the social foundations of a stable democratic
and peaceful regime. We shall see how this notion was structuring the social system that was establishedduring the years of high growth, but also what its limits were.
Keywords : Wage, Japan, Social system

March 2023
France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Jun NAGAYASU, TOHOKU University

Topic : Political economy and development economics
Title : Democracy and economic growth
Co-authors : Lamia Bazzaoui
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : No

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between democracy and economic growth in the
global market.

Keywords : Democracy ; economic growthMarch 2023
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Yannick DUPRAZ, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

Topic : Economic History
Title : Linguistic distance and migration in India
Co-authors : Latika Chaudhary & James Fenske
Webpage

Paper available : no

Abstract
Does linguistic distance reduce migration? We study India at the beginning of the 20th century and today.
We use historical and recent census data. In a bilateral gravity model, we regress migration between two
regions on their linguistic distance, controlling for various measures of physical distance and similarity.

Keywords : India, linguistic distanceApril 2023
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Presenter 1 : Erica PEREGO, CEPII

Topic : International Macroeconomics and Finance
Title : World interest rates and macroeconomic adjustment in developing commodity-producing countries
Co-authors : Vincent Bodart & François Courtoy
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available :With commodities becoming international financial securities, commodity prices are affected by theinternational financial cycle. With this evidence in mind, this paper reconsiders the macroeconomic adjustment
of developing commodity-exporting countries to changes in world interest rates. We proceed by building amodel of a small open economy that produces a non-tradable good and a storable tradable commodity. The
difference with standard models of small open economies lies in the endogenous response of commodity prices
which -due to commodity storage- adjust to variations in international interest rates. We find that theendogenous response of commodity prices amplifies the reaction of commodity exporting countries tointernational monetary shocks. This suggests that commodity exporting countries are more vulnerable tounfavourable international monetary disturbances than other small open economies. In particular, through thecommodity price channel, even those small open commodity-exporting economies that are disconnected frominternational financial markets can be affected by the international financial cycle.
Keywords : Storable commodity, International financial shock, Developing economies

April 2023
France 11:00-12:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Akira KOHSAKA, Osaka University

Topic : Structural transformation and development
Title : Leap-frogging Industrialization? Structural Transformation and Development Strategies
Co-authors :Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : no

While advanced economies graduated from industrialization by the 1970s and now under servicification, some worry
that premature de-industrialization in developing economies may decelerate their economic development (e.g. Rodrik
2016). Or can they leap-frog industrialization? Particularly we focus on the relationship between productivity growth andindustrial structural transformation in the global context. We first decompose/ analyze changes in industrial structures
through demand (income elasticities and export ratios) and supply (productivity growth) channels in more than three(i.e. agriculture, manufacturing and service) multiple-sector settings (Comin et al. 2021, Kohsaka 2020 and Sposi et al.
2021). We use the long run panel database such as KLEMS covering countries with available data. Second, looking into
servicification processes or changing I-O relationships among sectors, we examine how de-industrialization transforms
industries just like industrialization transformed agriculture. We use the global I-O database such as WIOD. Third, basedon the above scrutiny, we assess the validity of export-led industrialization as developing strategies and provide
implications for the way they could leap-frog traditional industrialization. Throughout, we carefully take account ofvarieties of not only individual, but regional and other heterogeneities among countries.
Keywords : export-led industrialization, de-industrialization, productivity growth and industrial structural transformation,
development strategies, servicification
JEL Codes: F43, O11, O47

May 2023
Presenter 1 : Kazunobu HAYAKAWA, IDE-JETROFrance 10:00-11:00 Japan 17:00-18:00
Topic : International Trade
Title : Fixed Costs in Exporting and InvestingCo-authors : Youngmin Baek
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available :This study quantifies the fixed costs of export and outward foreign direct investment (FDI). Specifically, we
compute the ratio of fixed costs for FDI to those for exports, which is called the “fixed cost ratio” (FCR). To do so,
we solve an equation derived from the theoretical model of the choice between exporting and FDI. We apply thismethod to exports and FDI from Japan to 68 countries during 2002-2018. Our findings can be summarized asfollows: In terms of median values, the FCR is estimated to be approximately 10, indicating that the fixed costs
for FDI are approximately 10 times higher than those for exports. Furthermore, our regression analyses on thedeterminants of the FCR show a significantly negative effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on the FCR,
which indicates that RTAs contribute to reducing fixed costs of FDI more greatly than those of exporting. This
result has important implications for the RTAs’ trade creation effect. Finally, we conduct simulation analyses ofthe effect of RTAs on the ratio of exports to FDI sales.
Keywords : Regional trade agreement, Exporting, Foreign direct investment, Fixed costs
JEL Codes: F15, F53

May 2023
Presenter 2 : Balazs Egert, OECD and University ofFrance 11:00-12:00 Japan 18:00-19:00
Topic : Human capital and productivity

Paris Nanterre

Title : A new macroeconomic measure of human capital exploiting PISA and PIAAC : linking education policies
to productivity
Co-authors : Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : yesThis paper provides a new measure of human capital using PISA and PIAAC surveys, and mean years of schooling.
The new measure is a cohort-weighted average of past PISA scores (representing the quality of education) of theworking age population and the corresponding mean years of schooling (representing the quantity of education).
In contrast to the existing literature, the relative weights of each component are not imposed or calibrated but
directly estimated. The paper finds that the elasticity of the stock of human capital with respect to the quality ofeducation is three to four times larger than for the quantity of education. The new measure has a strong link to
productivity with the potential for productivity gains being much greater from improvements in the quality thanquantity component of human capital. The magnitude of these potential gains in MFP is considerable but theeffects materialise with long lags. The paper simulates the impact of a particular reform to education policy (preprimary education) on human capital and productivity to demonstrate the usefulness of the new measure forpolicy analysis.
JEL: E24, I20, I25, I26, I28

June 2023
Presenter 1 : Sandra PONCET, University of Paris 1

France 10:00-11:00 Japan 17:00-18:00
Topic : Chinese economy

Title : Is there a bright side to the China Syndrome? Rising export opportunities and life satisfaction in China
Co-authors : Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available :The rise of Chinese exports has been identified as a source of harmful disruptions in importing countries. It
contributed to job destruction, labor market polarization, and political tensions. In China, theinternationalization of the economy has bolstered the economic development and increased incomes, but it has
also shaken up social structures and work environments. This paper explores the overall effect of exports on
individual welfare in China. We use a longitudinal survey on the perceived quality of life for about 45,000
Chinese individuals that we match with a (shift-share) measure of export opportunities in their locality. We showthat perceived life satisfaction rises significantly in prefectures that experienced higher export opportunities
despite a negative effect on self-reported health. The positive well-being gains go beyond a mere income effect.
We further show that these non-monetary gains transit via the local labor market and working conditions: theexport-related well-being gains that we measure exist only for working-age individuals (in particular men andlow-skilled workers) and are found when the satisfaction indicator focuses on work but not on family.
Keywords : Happiness, Export opportunities, Globalization, China

June 2023
Presenter 2 : Yushi YOSHIDA, Shiga University

France 11:00-12:00 Japan 18:00-19:00
Topic : International Finance

Title : Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate Pass-through in Japanese Imports
Co-authors : Fabien Rondeau
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available :With internationally fragmented productions or global value chains, value-added components of a country’s
export may include a third country’s contributions and that of the importer. The exchange rate sensitivity ofexport price reflects these value-added components. We examine the effect of value-added contributions ofexporters and importers on the degree of exchange rate pass-through by focusing on the Japanese import prices
by industries. We found that exchange rate pass-through increases for industries with a higher contribution ofexporting countries’ value-added and for industries with a lower contribution of the importing country’s valueadded.
Keywords : Exchange Rate Pass-through; Global Value Chains; Value-Added in Trade
JEL Codes: F14, F61

September 2023
Presenter 1 : Nathalie FERRIERE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

France 10:00-11:00 Japan 17:00-18:00

Topic : Fertility and Africa

and Sciences Po Aix

Title : US family planning and fertility in Kenya
Co-authors : Rozenn Hotte
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : no

The US is by far the most important provider of family planning aid, especially in Kenya. However, US familyplanning aid has undergone several changes related to the so-called Mexico City policy. This policy decreases
drastically the amount of aid provided by the US. In this paper, we investigate how the implementation of the
Mexico city policy affects fertility outcomes and especially early fertility. We also look at early marriage. To do so,
we implement a DID approach.

JEL code : J13, O2, F35, J12

September 2023
Presenter 2 : Fumiharu MIENO, Kyoto University

France 11:00-12:00 Japan 18:00-19:00
Topic : Corprate Owenrship and Finance

Title : Ownership and Capital Structure of Major Firms in Laos
Co-authors : Somvixay Chanthavong
Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : noWe examine ownership and capital structures of major firms in Laos based on a dataset of 65 firms gained froman original survey conducted in 2018-19 in Vientiane. The sample includes SOEs, private firms, foreign capitaland their mixture. The basic observation reveals that a large portion of SOEs constructs partnerships with foreign
capital, and that larger firms utilize debt financing in particular bank credit while self-financing is widely adopted
as main fundraising source. By empirical analyses on the determinants of capital structure, we find threecharacteristics; (1) firms with foreign ownership tend to be less active for debt financing and extremely inactive
for bank borrowing, presumingly due to their sufficient cash flow through their own financial channel; (2) pure
local-owned firms show higher dependence on debt financing and bank borrowing than SOEs or foreign-owned
firms; (3) SOEs are tend to show relatively low debt and bank borrow ratios, both in the cases of 100% state
stake and less than 50% state stake. These tendencies show a clear contrast to the situation in other Asiantransition economies such as China where intimate relationships are often observed between SOEs and staterun banks.
Keywords : Laos, Corprate Ownership, SOEs, Capital Structure
JEL Codes: G30, O16, O53

October 2023
Presenter 1 : Keiko ITO, Chiba University

France 9:00-10:00 Japan 17:00-18:00
Topic : International Trade and Innovation

Title : The Changing Structure of Global Value Chains and Technological Change : Evidence from the Firm-

Level Patent Data
Co-authors :Webpage

Abstract

Paper available : noThis paper explores how changes in the relative position in the Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect firms’
innovation activities. The analysis combines patent-firm-matched data with information on GVC networks fromthe OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables for the period 1995-2012. I also utilize various patent quality
indicators provided in the OECD Patent Quality Database. The analysis in this paper shows that the GVC
centrality tends to be positively associated with quality-adjusted number of patent applications and granted
patents. Moreover, the GVC centrality is likely to be positively associated with technological diversification forfirms. These results may suggest that being more central in the GVC network is likely to both deepen andbroaden the range of firms’ technological areas by enabling firms to benefit from knowledge spillovers from both
upstream and downstream markets. Along with the expansion of the GVCs since the 1990s, Japan’s centrality
in the GVC network declined substantially in contrast to the rise of China as another key hub in the network.
Although the changes in the GVC centrality only partially explains the changes in the quality-adjusted patentapplications, the negative impact for Japan and the positive impact for China are non-negligible.
Keywords: network centrality, global value chains, patent quality, micro data
JEL Codes: F14, F L25, O33, O53

October 2023
France 10:00-11:00 Japan 18:00-19:00

Presenter 2 : Benjamin KEDDAD, Paris School of Business

Topic : US Monetary policy in China
Title : The impact of Chinese macroeconomy on the FOMC decision-making process
Co-authors : Hamza Bennani & Davide Romelli
Webpage

Paper available : no

Abstract
In this article, we study the effect of Chinese economic policy uncertainty on the decision of FOMC members.
First, we analyze FOMC meeting transcripts and assess the concerns expressed by FOMC members about China.
Second, we assess the impact of Chinese variables on the FOMC decision-making process such as preferencesand votes at the individual level. To do so, we estimate an augmented Taylor rule with a proxy that measures
FOMC members' concerns about the Chinese economy and include several Chinese macroeconomic factors asinteractive variables. We focus on specific policy uncertainty indices, covering monetary, exchange rate and trade
policies, and standard macroeconomic variables, such as the RMB Globalization Index, industrial production
index, RMB misalignments, RMB exchange market pressure, manufacturing performance index, unemployment,
and inflation.
Keywords : China, FOMC, US monetary policy, InterdependenceContact us
Kiyotaka Sato
Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
Yokohama National University79-3 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku
Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan
Tel: +81-(0)45-339-3551
Email: sato@ynu.ac.jp

Gilles Dufrénot
Professor of Economics
Sciences Po Aix, AMSE
Maison de l'économie et de lagestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc, CS80429
13097 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 2
Tel: +33-(0)4 13 55 25 60
Email: gilles.dufrenot@sciencespo-aix.fr