The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Future Direction ofAIM
Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Research on assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies
on climate change by using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
Period: FY2005 - FY2007
Country Model
COP3
AIM/Enduse model in Japan

COP10

Economic
Model

COP8

Analysis ofCarbon Tax

AIM/Enduse model in Asia
(Country -> Local)
ECO-ASIA
UNEP/GEO
Climate Change Impact Assessment Model
IPCC
IPCC
IPCC SRES TAR
AR4Long-term Emission Scenarios with Global Model
EMFEcosystem
ModelMA19901994

1997

2000

ElementModelPolicy
Assessment
Model

Global Model
Element
Model
PolicyAssessment
Model

2005

Achievement ofKyoto Target
Participation ofdeveloping countries

Global warming issue
Mitigation (developed countries)

Targetto protect
globalwarming

Mitigation (developing countries)
Adaptation•Stab. GHG concentration
Integrated assessment•Stab. temperatureof mitigation and adaptation •Mitigation of impacts
as climate policy•…

Economic development
Millennium
developing goals
Medium term
environmental
Policy assessment totarget
realize long term target•Solution of air pollution
to avoid climate change,•Ensuring safe water
short/medium term domestic•Energy supply
environmental policy, andeconomic development•Impact on agriculture
Domestic environmental problems•…
Present2010 - 30

2100 -

What's new• Expansion of integrated assessment modelstressing energy system to other environmental
problems such as water and land, and economic
development– Country models for Asian countries' development– Global model for• Both country models and global model consist of
two sub models;• "Element of environment models" to treat individual
environment in detail• "Environmental policy assessment model" to evaluateenvironmental policies and economic activity consistently

Expected products• Evaluation of following environmental policies byusing expanded models– Climate policy assessment from viewpoint of both
mitigation and adaptation– Long term climate policy in consistent withshort/medium term domestic environmental policies– Environmental policies in consistent with economicdevelopment

Environmental policy
assessment modelfor Asian countries

Element ofenvironment models
for Asian countries

Country model
Environmental policy
Individual environment
assessment model
model
Global model

Global environmental
policy assessment
model

Element ofenvironment models
in global scale

Development of country model
odelmlablogotlink

CGE model

AIM/Country

Resource
model
Energymodel
Solid waste
model

End-usemodel

Air pollution
model

Environmental
policyassessment
model

Othermodels

Water
model
Agriculture
model
Landusemodel

potential
production
model

Global model

Element ofenvironment model
Environmental policy
assessment model
Existing examples(improved in this project)Development of country model••

Data collection for model development and policy assessment in eachcountry
Model development– Element of environment model– Environmental policy assessment model••••Assessment of mitigation/adaptation and other environmental policies
using country models
Development of interface among country models or between global
model and country models
Analysis by using integrated country models or global/country models
Scenario assessment and international comparison analysis

In FY2005,– Development/Improvement of some element of environment model– Integration of element of environment model and environmental policy
assessment modelDevelopment of global model
Linkage between global
model and country model
Korea
model
China
model

India
model

Japan model
Air pollution

Resource model
Watermodelmodel
EnvironmentalEnergy
Agriculture
policyassessment
modelmodel
model
Solid waste
Landusemodelmodel
Othermodels○○modelThailandmodel
Global environmental policy assessment model
Global water resource model
Global agricultural productivity model：
Global enduse model

Element of environment model

Linkage among
global models

Development of global model• Improvement of "Global environmental policy assessment
model"• Development/Improvement of "Element of environment
model in global scale"• Integration between "Global environmental policy
assessment model" and "Element of environment model inglobal scale"• Assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies