Recent Improvement andFuture Direction of AIM/Impact
Kiyoshi Takahashi (NIES)

Activities in FY2004•• Impact
Impact assessment
assessment considering
considering extreme
extreme climate
climate events
events–– Impact
Impactassessment
assessmentusing
usingdaily
dailyoutputs
outputsof
ofclimateclimatemodels
modelsincludingincludingEarth
EarthSimulator’s
Simulator’s•• Global
Globalcrop
cropimpact
impactusing
usingNIES-T106-AGCM’s
NIES-T106-AGCM’sdaily
dailyoutput
output•• Asian
Asiancrop
cropimpact
impactusing
usingNIES-RCM’s
NIES-RCM’sdaily
dailyoutput
output•• Global
Globalwater
waterstressstressassessment
assessmentusing
usingNIES-T106-AOGCM’s
NIES-T106-AOGCM’s•• Towards
Towards thethe discussion
discussion onon dangerous
dangerous anthropogenic
anthropogenic
interference
interference andand stabilization
stabilization target
target–– Development
Developmentof
ofAIM/Impact
AIM/Impact[Policy][Policy]•• Stabilization
Stabilizationtarget-Optimal
target-Optimalemission
emissionpath
pathmodel
model(Explained(ExplainedininDr.
Dr.
Hijioka’s
Hijioka’spresentation)
presentation)•• Simplified
Simplifiedimpact
impactestimation
estimationmodule
module1st issue: Impact assessmentconsidering extreme climate events•• Collaborative
Collaborative researchresearch projectproject withwith NIES/CCSR
NIES/CCSR
climateclimate modelingmodeling team
team fromfrom FY2004.
FY2004.
•• Backgrounds
Backgrounds ofof thethe projectproject–– Extreme
Extremeclimate
climateevents
events(hot(hotsummer,summer,heavyheavyrain,rain,drydryspell
spelletc.)etc.)areareexpected
expectedto
toincrease
increasein
infrequency
frequencyand/or
and/orseverity,severity,soso
thetheseverity
severityof
oftheir
theirimpacts
impactswill
willalso
alsoincrease.
increase.
–– Availability
Availabilityofofclimate
climatemodel
modeloutputs
outputsmore
moresuitable
suitableforforextremeextremeevent
eventanalysis
analysisisisincreasing.
increasing.

•• Research
Research objective
objective ofof thethe projectproject–– Validation
Validationof
ofrecent
recentclimate
climatemodel’s
model’sability
abilityto
toreproduce
reproduce
frequency
frequencyand
andmagnitude
magnitudeof
ofextreme
extremeevents
events–– Refinement
Refinementand
anddevelopment
developmentof
ofimpact
impactassessment
assessmentmodels
modelsforforconsidering
consideringextreme
extremeevents
events–– MoreMorerealistic
realisticimpact
impactassessment
assessmentconsidering
consideringextreme
extremeevents
events1st issue: Impact assessment
considering extreme climate events•• First
First year’s
year’s researchresearch plan
plan was…
was…
–– To
Tounderstandunderstandthe
thechangechangeininresults
resultsof
ofimpact
impactassessment
assessmentby
byusing
usingrecent
recenthigher-resolution
higher-resolutiondaily
dailyclimate
climatemodel
modeloutputs
outputs(which(whichareareexpected
expectedto
tohavehavemoremoreability
abilityto
todepict
depictextreme
extremeclimateclimateevents).
events).

•• ThreeThree studies
studies done
done inin 2004
2004–– GlobalGlobalcrop
cropimpact
impactusing
usingNIES-T106-AGCM’s
NIES-T106-AGCM’sdaily
dailyoutput
outputbybyMr.
Mr.Murai
MuraiininTIT
TITandandTakahashi
Takahashi–– Asian
Asiancrop
cropimpact
impactusing
usingNIES-RCM’s
NIES-RCM’sdaily
dailyoutput
outputby
byMr.
Mr.
Masutomi
Masutomiin
inKyotoKyotoUniversity
University–– Global
Globalwater
waterstressstressassessment
assessmentusing
usingNIES-T106-AOGCM’s
NIES-T106-AOGCM’s
bybyMr.
Mr.Saitoh
SaitohininKyotoKyotoUniversity
University

New climate model outputs usedfor impact assessment (GCM)•• NIES-T106-AOGCM
NIES-T106-AOGCM–– Daily
Daily data
data withwith 100km
100km xx 100km
100km resolution
resolution–– Scenario:
Scenario: (1)100-yr(1)100-yr control,(2)control,(2) 20C-reproduce,
20C-reproduce,(3)A1B(3)A1B (2000-2100)(2000-2100)–– Provided
Provided by
by CCSR/NIESCCSR/NIES team
team inin December
December•• NIES-T106-AGCM
NIES-T106-AGCM–– Daily
Daily data
data withwith 100km
100km xx 100km
100km resolution
resolution–– Scenario:
Scenario: Time-slice
Time-slice experiments
experiments using
using (1)observed(1)observed
monthlymonthly SST
SST forfor 1979-1998
1979-1998 (current)(current) andand (2)(2) thethesamesame SST
SST ++ temperaturetemperature increase
increase projected
projected byby AOAOGCMs
GCMs distributed
distributed at
at IPCC-DDC
IPCC-DDC (future;(future; 2070).
2070).

New climate model outputs used
for impact assessment (RCM)•• NIES-RAMS
NIES-RAMS–– Region:
Region:Whole
WholeAsia
Asia–– 6-hourly
6-hourlydata
datawith
with60km
60kmxx60km
60kmresolution
resolution–– Target
Targetperiod:
period:1981-90
1981-90andand2041-50
2041-50–– Boundary
Boundarycondition:
condition:CCSR-NIES
CCSR-NIEST42
T42AO-GCM
AO-GCM(SRES(SRESA2)
A2)•• JMA-RCM
JMA-RCM–– Region:
Region:AroundAroundJapan
Japan(incl.
(incl.Korea)
Korea)–– Daily
Dailydata
datawith
with20km
20kmxx20km20kmresolution
resolution(double(doublenestingnestingvia
via
RCM
RCMsimulation
simulationwith
with60km60kmxx60km60kmresolution)
resolution)–– Target
Targetperiod:
period:1981-2000,1981-2000,2031-2050,
2031-2050,2081-2100
2081-2100–– Boundary
Boundarycondition:
condition:JMA-CGCM2
JMA-CGCM2(SRES-A2)(SRES-A2)

Asian crop impact using NIESRAMS’s daily output•• Estimation
Estimation ofof potential
potential productivity
productivity ofof rice
rice (1)(1) withwith
daily
daily climate
climate data
data andand (2)(2) withwith monthly
monthly climate
climate data
data inin
1980s.
1980s.
•• Comparison
Comparison ofof estimatedestimated productivity
productivity between
between (1)(1) andand(2)(2) forfor showing
showing thethe necessity
necessity andand importanceimportance ofof daily
daily
climateclimate data
data inin impact
impact assessment
assessment ofof agriculture.
agriculture.
Daily data

Monthly data

model

model
comparison

YieldsYieldsDifference in the potential productivity of rice between(1) with daily data and (2) monthly data in 1980s.
((1)-(2))[kg/ha]change[%]

The
Thepotential
potentialproductivity
productivityof
ofricericewith
withdaily
dailydatadataisislower
lower
thanthanone
onewithwithmonthly
monthlydata
dataforforallallcountries
countries

Bangladesh

MyanmarBhutanCambodia

Sri Lanka

China

India

JapanN.Korea

Korea

Laos

Nepal

Philippenes

Thailand0-5-10-15-20-25-30-35-40-45-50

Viet Namchange in the potential productivity of rice in 1980s
between daily data and monthly dataSummary and Future Plan•• Summary
Summaryof
ofthisthisyear’s
year’swork
work–– Necessity
Necessityof
ofusingusingdaily
dailyclimate
climatemodel
modeloutput
outputhashasbeenbeenconfirmed.
confirmed.
•• EstimatedEstimatedpotential
potentialproductivity
productivitywith
withdaily
dailydatadataisismuch
muchlower
lowerthanthanonewith
monthly
dataforall
Asiancountries.
one with monthly data for all Asian countries.
•• TemporalTemporalpatternpatternofofprecipitationprecipitationaffects
affectsthe
theresultresultsignificantly.
significantly.

•• Next
Nextstep
step–– Parameter
Parametertuning
tuningof
ofcropcropmodel
modelforforusing
usingdaily
dailyinput
inputdata
data–– Impact
Impactassessment
assessmentof
ofthe
thesectors
sectorswhich
whichareareexpected
expectedtotobe
bemoremore
sensitivetochange
inextremecondition.
sensitive to change in extreme condition.
•• HeatHeatstroke
stroke•• Drought
Droughtand
andFlood
Flood–– Detection
Detectionof
of“hot“hotspots”
spots”fromfromthetheviewpoint
viewpointof
offuture
futurechangechangeininextreme
extremeevent.
event.

2nd Issue: Toward the discussion ofstabilization target•• Backgrounds
Backgrounds–– Heated
Heateddiscussion
discussiononon“Dangerous“DangerousAnthropogenic
Anthropogenic
Interference
Interference(DAI)”(DAI)”bothbothdomesticallydomesticallyand
andinternationally.
internationally.
–– New
Newlarge
largeimpact
impactresearchresearchprojectprojectfor
forinvestigating
investigatingDAIDAIandandstabilization
stabilizationtarget
targetwill
willstart
startfrom
fromApril
April2005.
2005.

•• Research
Research Demand
Demand–– ForFormoremoreclear
clearprocessprocessof
ofjudgment
judgmentof
ofDAI
DAIandandstabilization
stabilizationtarget,target,ititisispreferable
preferablethat
thatanyone
anyone(incl.
(incl.policymakers)
policymakers)cancan
easilyeasilygrasp
graspthetheconsequenceconsequenceof
ofthe
thechoicechoiceof
ofstabilization
stabilization
targettargetsuch
suchasasclimateclimatechangechangeimpacts
impactsand
andrequired
requiredemission
emissionpath
pathtotoachieve
achievethe
thetarget.
target.

•• Efforts
Efforts byby AIM
AIM teamteam–– Development
Developmentof
ofaatooltoolforforthethediscussion
discussionof
ofDAI
DAIandandstabilization
stabilizationtarget
target(AIM/Impact[Policy])(AIM/Impact[Policy])

8GHGs emission

650

550

6450

4
2350

0
2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

-2C-cycle model
800

750ppmＣＯ２濃度(ppm)

700

650

600

Concentration
target550

GHGs concentration
500

450

400

350

300
200
2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

Climate model
4.5
4750ppm

気温上昇(℃）

3.5

650

3550

Climate change
2.5

450

2

350

1.5

1
0.5
02050

2100

2150

650ppm550ppm450ppm

Impact model

2200

2250

水 不 足 ／ マラリア／ 飢 餓350

リスク人口（百万人）

沿 岸 洪 水
3500

水 不 足

300

2300

1000ppm

2000

3000
2500

250

マラリア

Sector-wise impacts
200

2000

150

1500
1000

飢 餓100500

50

沿 岸 洪 水000 .511 .5

2

全 球 平 均 気 温 上 昇 （℃ ）

2 .5

3

0

Estimation of impacts asconsequences of the choiceof concentration target

2000

Emission
scenarios

List ofintolerable
impacts

Investigation of emission pathand concentration to achieve
climate change target

750ppm10

ClimatechangetargetEstimation of impacts
as consequence ofthe choice of climatechange target

ＣＯ２排出量（ＧｔＣ）

12

Investigation of emission path, concentration, climatechange to achieve avoiding intolerable impacts listedup.

14

Scenario CL of impact CL of climateanalysis (Inverse) type change type
type

Estimation of concentration, climate change andimpacts as consequences of the choice of emission
scenario

16

Investigation of emission
path to achieve
concentration target

UNFCCC
Article2 type

Investigation of stabilization target using AIM/Impact[Policy]
Economically optimal
path of GHGs emission

Discussion ofburden sharing

Dynamic optimization model
linked with simple climate model

Spatial pattern of C.C.
derived from GCM results
Country-mean change in
Temperature and precipitation

Iteration ofassessment
and judgment

Impact functions
Country-average ofclimate change impact on
sensitive sectors

Climatemodelstudies

Stabilization target(Global mean temp. change)

GHG concentration&GMT change (ΔGMT)

Impactmodelstudies

Stabilization target(GHG concentration)Snapshots of AIM/Impact[Policy]’s
GUI (under development)

Stabilization target to be
examined can be inputtedthrough graphical userinterface.

Results of the assessment
can be displayed in map
style or in line graph style.

Pattern scaling applied toestimate country-mean value

Spatial pattern of C.C.
derived from GCM results

Climatemodelstudies

Global mean temperature changeCountry-mean of change in temperature and precipitation
projected by GCM is archived in a table format.

Impact functions
FCntX,SecY(ΔT，ΔP)

Impactmodelstudies

Country-mean change in Temperature (ΔT)
and precipitation（ΔP）

These functions are obtained by executing simulation with large
number of synthetic scenarios and averaging the simulated result.
One impact function is created for each country and sector.

Time-series of country-mean climate change
impacts on sensitive sectors

Impact Function•• Procedure
Procedure toto develop
develop impact
impact function
function–– SimulationSimulationof
ofimpacts
impactsusing
usingexisting
existingimpact
impactassessment
assessment
modelsmodelsforforsynthetic
syntheticscenarios
scenariosof
ofclimateclimatechangechange–– Making
Makingcountry-mean
country-meanof
ofestimatedestimatedimpact
impactto
tomakemakeaa“impact“impacttable”
table”•• Feature
Feature ofof impact
impact function
function–– Country-averageCountry-averageof
ofsensitivity
sensitivityanalysis
analysisresult
result–– Less
Lessspoil
spoilofofnon-linearity
non-linearityin
inthe
therelationshiprelationshipbetween
betweenclimateclimatechangechangeandandimpactimpact–– Publicizing
Publicizingimpact
impactmodel
modelisisoften
oftendifficult,difficult,butbutresultresultdatabase
databasecan
canbebemoremoreeasily
easilypublicizedpublicized–– Interface
Interfacebetween
betweenprecise
preciseimpact
impactstudy
studyandandpolicy
policydiscussion
discussion
tooltoolChange of rice potential productivity in major 10 producer
countries in the world (SRES-B2, 6-GCM mean, using theimpact functions based on AIM/Agriculture model )Change of rice productivity (%)

2015

China10Japan

5

PhilippinessIndonesia
Myanmar

0-5

VietnamBangladeshThailand
Brazil-10-15

India-20
2000

2020

2040

2060

Year

2080

2100

Changes in climate and crop productivities in India
with uncertainty range (SRES-B2 scenario)
04030-1020-20

100-30-10-40-20
2000

2025

2050
Year

2075

2100

2000

2025

2050
Year

2075

2100

Temperature change (0.1 oC)
Precipitation change (%)

Rice productivity change (%)
Wheat productivity change (%)

Solid line = Mean of 6-AOGCMs

Dash-ed line = Range of 6-AOGCMs

00-5-5

Change of wheatproductivity(%)

Change of riceproductivity(%)

Climate change impact on potential productivity of Riceand Wheat in India under alternative stabilization targets-10-15-20-25-10-15-20-25-30-30
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
YearBaU
GHG-600ppmv
GHG-500ppmv

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Year

No reduction policy (SRES-B2 scenario)
GHGs concentration does not exceed 600ppmv (CO2eq )GHGs concentration does not exceed 500ppmv (CO2eq )Tasks to be done in next year
regarding AIM/Impact[Policy]•• Expansion
Expansion ofof Impact
Impact Function
Function–– Preparation
Preparation ofof global
global (country-wise)(country-wise) impact
impactfunctionfunction using
using AIM/Impact
AIM/Impact model
model andand otherotherexisting
existing impact
impact assessment
assessment model
model–– Development
Development ofof more
more precise
precise impact
impact function
function forforJapan
Japan andand Asian
Asian region
region byby experts
experts ofof each
each sensitive
sensitive
sector.
sector. (This(This work
work will
will bebe donedone outside
outside AIM)
AIM)–– Impacts
Impacts ofof non-linear
non-linear irreversible
irreversible event
event•• Refinement
Refinement ofof graphicalgraphical useruser interface
interface–– Linking
Linking modules
modules developed
developed individuallyindividuallyMore issues (difficult but important)•• Adaptation
Adaptation–– Next
Next question
question fromfrom governmental
governmental officials
officials will
will bebe“what“what shouldshould we
we do
do as
as adaptation
adaptation options
options and/orand/or
how
how should
should wewe contributecontribute toto thethe enhancement
enhancement ofofadaptive
adaptive capacity
capacity inin developing
developing countries?”
countries?”•• Millennium
Millennium Development
Development Goal
Goal andand C.C.
C.C.
–– Next
Next main
main issue
issue inin AIM
AIM project.
project.

•• Probabilistic
Probabilistic expression
expression ofof impact
impact risk
risk–– Headache….
Headache….
Thank you.