The 10th AIM International Workshop

The Economic Valuation of the Health Impactby Air Pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Md. Murshid Aktar & Koji Shimada, Ritsumeikan Univ.

Date : March 11, 2005
Session VII
 Time : 09:40 – 10:00


Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba, Japan

About Dhaka City
 Population : 9,912,908 (2001 Population Census,BBS) Area:1464 sq. km (The Dhaka Statistical
Metropolitan Area (DSMA)
 Annual Average Rain Fall: 2060mm(approximately) Average Temperature: 20°C(Winter dec-feb)
28°C (Summer) Life Expectancy: 62years

Major Policy: Introduction of Lead Free Gasoline
from July 1, 1999.

z

Lead in Ambient Air of Dhaka decreased Approximately two-thirds

Major Policy: Jan 1, 2003 Phase Out of All Existing
Two-Stroke Engine Three-Wheelers from Dhaka
Levels of PM10 before and after removal of Baby
Taxis (Phase-II)

PM10Average

z/2
9/2002
12/3
1/20
02
1/
2/2003
1/
4/
2003
1/
6/2003

02

1220
7//2
12

12/2
5/2002(microgram/ m3)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0

PM10 concentrations in Dhaka Declines by 31%Major Policy: Jan 1, 2003 Phase Out of All Existing
Two-Stroke Engine Three-Wheelers from Dhaka

350300250200150100500PM2.5Average

12/2
5/2002
12/2
7/
2002
12/2
9/
2002
12/3
1/
2002
1/
2/2003
1/
4/
2003
1/
6/
2003

Microgram/m3

Levels of PM2.5 before and after removal of Baby
Taxis (phase-II)z

PM2.5 concentrations in Dhaka Declines by 41%

Estimating Health Impact of Air
Pollution in Dhaka City

Establishing Concentration Response
Function (CRF).
Pollution condition in Dhaka city
Estimation of Health Impact

Concentration Response
Function (CRF)
ΔHt = cte ∗ ΔPe ∗ POPWhere, Δ = changein
Ht = Healtheffectsof typet
cte = Coefficient of the CRF of healtheffectt
and pollutante per year
Pe = Ambientconcentration of the pollutante.
POP = Populationexposedto the pollutant

Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality
Associated with a 10 ug/m3 Change in PM10(based on Meta Analytical Reviews)

Meta AnalyticalReviews
Metropolitan Mexico
City Study
Study for Six Cities(Developing Country)
Study for Eight Major
Italian Cities

Year Coefficient CI 95%
Numberof studyIncluded
39
2000
1.01 0.83, 1.1992000

0.84 NA

2002

1.026 1.009,1.043

Jakarta Study

61994

0.96 1.30,0.62*

California Study

67

2001

1.05 0.5-1.6(range)Estimated Percentage Change in Mortality Associatedwith a 10 ug/m3 Change in PM10- Developing Countries Experiences
Study

Year Mean
PM10AgeGroup

Coefficientof CRF

Mexico city Study

2000 45all

1.83

Bangkok City Study

1999 65

All

1.70

Sao Paulo Study

1995 8265>

1.31

Santiago Study

1996 115

All

1.13

Delhi Study

1997 377(TSP) all

0.4

Beijing (ResidentialArea) Study

1994 350(TSP) All0.7

Coefficient of the CRF of the Quantifiable
Health Effects(Associated with a 1ug/m3 change in PM10)
Health Impact
Mortality
Respiratory Hospital Admission (RHA)
Emergency Room Visit (ERV)

Coefficient
0.096
0.000012
0.0002354

Restricted Activity Days (RAD)(children) Lower Respiratory Illness(LRI)
Asthma Attacks

0.05750.00169
0.0326

Respiratory Symptom Days (RSD)
Chronic Bronchitis (CB)

0.183
0.0000612

Dhaka City

PROPOSED NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY
STANDARDS (NAAQS) FOR BANGLADESH
Source- Air Quality Management Project (AQMP)

Pollutant

PM10
PM2.5
SO2NO2

Proposed BangladeshStandard

150 µg/m3
50 µg/m3
65 µg/m3
15 µg/m3
365 µg/m3 (140 ppb)
80 µg/m3 (30 ppb)
100µg/m3 (53 ppb)

Averaging Time

24-Hours
Annual24-Hours
Annual24-Hours
AnnualAnnualSix Pollutant (PM10, PM2.5, CO, SO2, NO2 and O3) are measured
under the supervision of MOE and Financed by WB with Air
Quality Management Project (AQMP)

MonthOctober, 04

September, 04

August, 04

July, 04

June, 04

May,04Monthly Maximum, Average and Minimum PM 10

April, 04

March, 04

February, 04

January, 04

December, 03

November, 03

October, 03

Average

September, 03

August, 03

July, 03

Proposed 24 hour
average standard 150µg/m3June, 03)

Maximum

May, 03

April, 03

March, 03

February, 03

3600

January, 03

December, 02

November, 02

October, 02

September, 02

August, 02

July, 02

June, 02250

May, 02

300

April, 02Concentration of PM 10 in micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m24 Hours Average PM10 at CAMS, Sangsad bhaban
Average of 31 months =120µg/m3

Minimum

550

500450400

350

Proposed annual
average standard 50µg/m3200

150

100500Fig. 2 Sulfur Dioxide at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban
Monthly Average, Maximum and Minimum Concentration
From October 2002 to November 2003
80

Proposed annual
average standard
ppb

60
50Maximum

40

Average30

Minimum

20
10November, 03

October, 03

Septenber, 03

August, 03

July, 03

June, 3May, 03

April, 03

March, 03

February, 03

January, 03

December, 02-10

November, 02

0October, 02Concentration of SO2 in ppb

70

MonthSource:Trends in Ambient Air Quality in the Dhaka City
Shahana Akhter, S M Abdul Quadir and Amir H. Khan

700650600
550
500450400350300250200150100500Month

Source:Trends in Ambient Air Quality in the Dhaka CityShahana Akhter, S M Abdul Quadir and Amir H. Khan

Maximum
Average
Minimum

N ov em ber, 03

O c tober, 03

Septenber, 03

Augus t, 03

J uly , 03

J une, 3

M ay , 03

April, 03

M arc h, 03

F ebruary , 03

J anuary , 03

D ec em ber, 02

Proposed
National Standardppb

N ov em ber, 02

C onc entration of N O x in ppb

Fig. 3 Nitrogen Oxides at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban
Monthly Maximum, Average and Minimum NOx
From November 2002 to November 2003

Date
1 1 /2 /0 4

1 0 /2 /0 4

9 /2 /0 4

350

8 /2 /0 4

7 /2 /0 4

150

6 /2 /0 4

5 /2 /0 4

4 /2 /0 4

3 /2 /0 4

2 /2 /0 4

1 /2 /0 4

1 2 /2 /0 3

1 1 /2 /0 3

1 0 /2 /0 3

9 /2 /0 3

250

8 /2 /0 3

450

7 /2 /0 3

6 /2 /0 3

5 /2 /0 3

4 /2 /0 3

3 /2 /0 32 /2 /0 3

1 /2 /0 3

A Q I V a lu eDaily Air Quality Index 2003 - 2004

500

extremely unhealthy

400very unhealthy

300

unhealthy200

good100500

Conditions for Estimating HealthImpacts
Average Daily PM10 (Nov 03 – Oct 04) : 125µg/m3
 Population (02) Exposed in Dhaka city:
10,000,000.
(Population Census, BBS
 Adult Population: 61.8%
2003)

Crude Mortality Rate per 1000 persons: 4(BBS2003)

Percentage of asthmatic population is assumed tobe: 5%
 The Coefficient Of CRF for Mortality associatedwith 1µg/m3 change in PM10.


 0.1

( As World Average)
 0.04 ( From Delhi Study)

Health Benefits of Reducing PM10 for Two
Different Scenarios
Health Impact

20%
ReductionPremature Mortality

1000, 400*

3000, 1200*

Respiratory Hospital
Admission (RHA)

3,000

9,000

Emergency Room Visit(ERV)

58,850176,550

8,883,750

26,651,250(children) Lower
Respiratory Illness (LRI)

161,395

484,185

Asthma Attacks

407,500

1,222,500

45,750,000

137,250,000

15,30045,900Restricted Activity Days(RAD)

Respiratory Symptom Days
(RSD)
Chronic Bronchitis (CB)Reduction toNational Standard*Taken coefficient from Delhi as 0.04 for per µg/m3 change in PM10Economic Valuation of Health
Benefits
Willingness to Pay (WTP) approach is usedfor valuing Health Impact.
 Estimates of WTP to reduce risk of deathand to avoid illness do not exist forBangladesh Transfer of WTP estimates from US toBangladesh Most conservative WTP estimates areTaken from available literatureTransferring WTP Estimates fromUS to Dhaka City
WTPD ,t = WTPUS ,t [GNI D / GNIUS ]ε tWhere,
WTPD ,t = WTP estimate for Dhaka for health impact type t
WTPUS ,t = WTP estimate for US for health impact type t
GNI = Per Capita Gross National income

ε t = Income elasticty of WTP of Health effect type tConservative approach of benefit transfer
Income elasticity of 1 provides conservativeestimates

WTP Estimates for per Case Mortality andMorbidity
Health Impact
Premature Mortality
Respiratory Hospital Admission(RHA)
Emergency Room Visit (ERV)
Restricted Activity Days (RAD)(children) Lower Respiratory Illness(LRI)
Asthma Attacks
Respiratory Symptom Days (RSD)
Chronic Bronchitis (CB)* Source: Lvovsky et al. 2000

WTPUS,t
US income level, 1990
US$*WTPD,tDhaka, 2004,US$ (per Case)

1,620,000
4,225

29,704
77.47

126
53
44

2.31
0.97
0.806

6344
195,000

1.15
0.806
3,575.55

Annual Health Benefits due to Reduction ofPM10Benefits of 20%
reduction, US$

Benefits from Reduction toNational Standard, US$

Premature Mortality
Respiratory Hospital Admission(RHA)

29,704,584
232,411

89,113,752
697,233

Emergency Room Visit (ERV)

135,964
8,633,376
130,212407,893
25,900,128
390,636

Asthma Attacks
Respiratory Symptom Days
(RSD)

470,735
36,910,696

1,412,205
110,732,088

Chronic Bronchitis (CB)54,705,942
130,923,921

164,117,827
392,771,763

Health Impact

Restricted Activity Days (RAD)(children) Lower Respiratory
Illness (LRI)

TOTALPercentage of Health Benefits fromReduction of PM10 to the National Standard
Percentage of health benefits
22.71%

0.18%
41.83%

28.22%
0.36%

0.10%
6.60%

Mortality

RHACB

LRI(children)

RAD

Asthma Attacks

RSD

Health Benefits as a Percentage ofDifferent Economic Indicators
Benefits from 20% reduction
EconomicIndicator

National Per
capita GNI as
432$

Benefits from Reduction toNational Standard

Dhaka percapita as 770$

National percapita as 432$

Dhaka percapita as770$

National budget
2004-2005

1.37%

2.45%

4.12%

7.34%

National Health
Budget 2004-2005

21.05%

37.52%

63.15%

112.55%

Total Budget ofDCC 2002-2003

115.97%206.71%347.92%620.14%

0.22%

0.40%

0.67%

1.20%

GNI 2004

Further Study Plan

• Establish CRF of Mortality for Dhaka City
• Estimation of Mitigation Cost to Reduce PM10/
Air Pollution– Focusing Mainly on Transport System• Cost - Benefit Analysis, including Ancillary
Benefit Estimation

Thank You
For Your Attention