D02

Research Abstracts on Spatial Information ScienceCSIS DAYS 2015

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use/cover changes
and urban expansion in Lusaka City, Zambia
Matamyo Simwanda
Graduate School of Life and Environment Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Email: <matamyo@gmail.com>
grown by almost three times over the 20 year period.
This has been caused by the continued conversion ofwoodland and grass/shrub land areas to urban areas
as shown by the significant losses in these classes.
The growth of the urban area has mainly beencharacterized by increase in unplanned/informal
residential settlements in the city which haveemerged from the increase in the city population due
to rural urban migration which has increased demandon the city for residential housing. This has
significantly impacted on the changes in thelandscape of the city
Consequently, the landscape has become more
complex and heterogeneous. Its fragmentation andaggregation increased at first and then declined as theland became more connected due to continuous
increase in the built up area. The Shannon entropy
values indicate an increase in the dispersion of theurban development. This suggests that intervention isrequired for sustainable urban development.
(4) Future plan: I plan model and analyze the drivers ofurban growth. Further, I will carry out modeling andsimulation to predict future urban growth dynamics
and further do scenario analysis for finding the mostsustainable ways of future urban growth (2030-2050).

(1) Purpose: Lusaka City is one of the cities in Sub
Saharan Africa that has experienced rapid urbanexpansion. The study aims to investigate thespatiotemporal pattern and processes of Land
use/Land cover (LULC) changes and urbanexpansion in Lusaka City, Zambia.
(2) Data and methods: Multi-temporal satellite images
were used to extract the LULC data: two Landsat TM
images of 1990 and 2010 respectively and one
Landsat ETM+ image of` 2000. The spatial resolutionof all the images was 30m. A classification scheme
consisting of five LULC classes was considered
including urban/built up, woodland, grass/shrub land,cultivated land and water. Remote sensing techniques,in combination with GIS were used to analyze andcharacterize the LULC changes.
For a more comprehensive understanding of theurban growth process several landscape and classlevel spatial metrics were generated using
FRAGSTATS to characterize the urban growth
structure and pattern. Spatial metrics aided
quantitative assessment of the landscape fragmentation, complexity, connectedness, intermixture/
configuration, aggregation and heterogeneity.
Furthermore, the study also attempted to measure
the extent of urban sprawl (i.e. urban development
compactness or dispersion) using the Shannon
Entropy approach. Urban sprawl was considered inthree ways with regards to the selection of reference
zones for Shannon entropy calculation: (1) using
administrative wards; (2) Separating Wards into four
Ward Groups (WGs) based on built up area
composition; and (3) using distances to location
factors (city center, major roads and rail stations)
identified to influence urban growth.
(3) Results: Figure 1 and Table 1 show the LULC
change results in the study area from 1990 to 2010.
The results show that the built up (urban) area has(1990)

Table 1: LULC Changes (1990 - 2010)
Classes

1990

2000

Km² %

Km²2010%

Km²%

Built Up

56.5 13.5 111.3 26.6 176.5 42.2

Woodland
Grass/Shrub
Land
CultivatedlandWater

46.8 11.2 29.64

7.1 31.03

7.4

289 69.2 253.9 60.7 177.7 42.5
24.2

5.8 21.75

5.2 31.88

7.6

0.86

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.89

0.44

(2010)(2000)

LegendLegendLegendLegend0 1 24Legend
6 8

1 - Urban/Built Up

1 2 4 6 Up
8
1 -0 Urban/Built

Kilometers

1 - Urban/Built Up 2- Woodland

Kilometers

1 - Urban/Built Up

2- Woodland

2- Woodland

3- Grass/Shrub Land 4 - Cultivated Land

3- Grass/Shrub Land

4 - Cultivated Land 5- Water

4 - Cultivated Land

5- Water

5- Water2- Woodland

distribution- 52 -

2- Woodland
0 1 2

468

3- Grass/Shrub
Kilometers Land

3- Grass/Shrub Land

4 - Cultivated Land

4 - Cultivated Land

5- Water

5- WaterFigure 1: Land Use/Land Cover maps: 1990, 2000 and 2010

3- Grass/Shrub Land

1 - Urban/Built Up