Session IX Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project
The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Overall of Low Carbon Society
toward 2050 Project
Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Japanese climate policy scenarios toward 2050
Background:- UK, Germany, France, Sweden,,,,: Long term climate strategies, reducing GHGs
drastically toward 2050. Are those the paths we should follow?
- In UNFCCC and Japan: Beyond Kyoto Issue started. Quantitative base required.
Goal:- To explore the possible paths to low carbon society in Japan toward 2050.
- Major output: GHG emission scenarios- Various related research works.
- How should we set policy target? (stabilization target, internationalburden sharing, sustainable development,,)- What technological and societal changes need to be introduced and how?
(Options, Policy and Measures)- What implications these scenarios pose to future Japanese economy andsociety? (Evaluation of policies)

Japanese climate policy scenarios toward 2050
Study Japanese options toward climate sustainability
Techno-socio Innovation Study
EE Improvement
New tech application
New Urban structure

Eco awareness
Smooth mobility
Industry efficiency

Traffic system
BaU scenario

Tech. innovation
EE improvement
Energy saving
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechange

2020

2050

2010

（eg. 50-80% reduction by 1990 level）Intervention

2000

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

IT-societyReduction
Target study

Effective

Valid531-1Equity

GHG reduction target
1990

Develop socioeconomic scenario,
evaluate countermeasures using
econ-techno models

GHG emission

Urban structure

Low-CO2 emission car
Next generation car
New traffic system

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

scenario

Suitable

Evaluate rationality
and process of GHG
reduction target

Advisory board：advice to project
Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

AIM models for2050 scenarios• Threshold of Climate Change• Stabilization path and impacts• Burden sharing

Countermeasures in each sector

AIM/CGE[global]
Quantitative targetsof Socio-economic
indicators

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Scenario Team
AIM/Material

1 BaU scenarios

Permanent
production sector

Demand related toenergy, urban,
transportation, etc• Analyzing stabilizationpath• Burden sharing,flexibility• Change of tradescheme like ＦＴＡ

Adhoc production/
Istituteion sector• Adjustment of social andeconomical scenario• Including industry structurechange and tech. innovation• Impact of GHG reduction
policy (constraint, tax, etc)

Household model

AIM/Enduse• Quantitative analysis ofcountermeasures

2 Database Development
EDB
Environmental option DataBase• Database of countermeasures• Interface with each sector

3 Design of Low Carbon Society Scenarios

Japan(1990–2000)

50%
rect

%

du

60

0

io

1960-2000

1960-2000

Switchover

dun

rect

70io

ren%
du(1990–2000)
FranceB2ct

Change in carbon intensitywith CCSnUK(1990–2000) 1960-2000%

RevivalSaving energy

redu

Combine option

ct
ion–2

Germany(1990–2000)

90%
redu
ct
ion–3

Change in carbon intensity
excluding carbon captureand storage (CCS)

io–180Change rate of energy intensity (%/year)

Change rates of energy/carbon intensity

–3–2
–1
0
Change rate of carbon intensity (%/year)

Historical change rates forthe past 40 years, andprojections, are connectedwith change rates in the
1990s. Dashed lines,
having a lope of -1,represent positions inwhich a 50-90% reductionis achieved over 50 years
with 1% GDP growth.

(Source: Kawase et al. 2005)

Path toward Low Carbon Society
Masui:AIM20005

CO2 emissions [MtC]

400350reference case

300
250
200

↓40% reduction

150↓60% reduction

100↓80% reduction

policy case
low carbon case50
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year年

Energy Saving devices
Energy Supply change

Urban System Change
Industry Structure Change
Information Technology
Renewable energy
Consumption Behavior