Global Economics and Food Demand
Ron Sands
USDA Economic Research Service
Kansas City, Missouri, USA
The 25th Asia‐Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies
18‐19 November 2019
Tsukuba, JapanThe findings and conclusions in this presentation are those of the author and should not be
construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy. This
research was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic ResearchService.

Outline• Review of climate impact and adaption study bythe Agricultural Model Intercomparison andImprovement Project (AgMIP)• Historical food consumption by major food groupin large countries• Model projections of world food demand to 2050
– Per capita calories available for consumption– Crop calories needed to meet food demand– Variation across Shared Socio‐economic Pathways• Implications for land use
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The climate modeling chain: From biophysical tosocioeconomic

Productivity

3Economic Responses to a Decline in Agricultural
Productivity Due to Climate Change in 2050
80%
60%
40%
20%

20%
11%

0%
‐20%

‐17%

‐2%

‐3%

Production

Consumption

‐11%

‐40%
‐60%
Productivity

YieldAreaPrice

Change in Productivity is the exogenous shock. All other changes are endogenous responses relative to baseline.
The black diamond is the average (mean) percent change with climate change compared to no climate change inyear 2050; the height of a column is the range across climate models, crop models, and economic models. Results
are a world average across major field crops: wheat, rice, coarse grains, and oil seeds.
Source: Nelson et al. (2014) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111(9): 3274‐3279.

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Future demand for food
• World demand for food calories– Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations
provides historical data to 2013
– Food available for consumption (includes waste at home and inrestaurants)– Calories as unit of aggregation– Model‐based projections to 2050
– Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a range of scenarios,
including variation in global diets, population, and per‐capita income– Global demand for food calories increases in all scenarios from 2010
to 2050• World demand for calories from crops– Model‐based projections from 2010 to 2050
– Demand for crop calories increases by 52 percent from 2010 to 2050
in “middle of the road” scenario, or about 1.1 percent per year

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1990 per‐capita calories available for consumption
4,000

3,500

3,000

kcal/cap/day

2,500
animal products
sugar and vegetable oils

2,000

fruits and vegetables
grains and oil seeds

1,500

1,000

500

0
WorldUSA

Brazil

China

India

Source: Food balances from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations

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2013 per‐capita calories available for consumption
4,000

3,500

3,000

kcal/cap/day

2,500
animal products
sugar and vegetable oils

2,000

fruits and vegetables
grains and oil seeds

1,500

1,0005000WorldUSA

Brazil

China

India

Source: Food balances from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations

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Shared Socio‐economic Pathways: summary of key characteristics
Attributes

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

Population

U.N. low growth

U.N. medium growth

U.N. high growth

IncomeHigh growth

Medium growth

Low growth

Agricultural productivity

High improvements
in agricultural
productivity; rapid
diffusion of bestpractices

Medium pace oftechnological change

Low technology
development

Food consumption

Low‐meat diets in transitionand developed countriesSmall increase in all foodproducts over time, except
grains, in developing andtransition countries

Greater increase in meat
consumption in developing
and transition countries

Note that the behavior of food consumption across scenarios is not consistent with income growth. The SSPs
have animal product consumption growing fastest in the low‐income‐growth SSP3 scenario. This is opposite
the pattern of observed behavior, where consumption of animal products grows with income.

8World demand for food calories and crop calories
18,000S3 crop calories
16,000S2 crop calories

14,00012,000

S3 food calories
S1 crop calories

10,000
trillionkcal

S2 food calories
Scenarios ofcalories from crops

S1 food calories

8,000

Scenarios offood calories

6,000

4,000

Historicalfood calories
through 2013

2,0000
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Note: The dashed lines show the variation due only to changes in diets, from scenario “S2 low livestock” to scenario “S2 highlivestock.” The change in food calories due to dietary preference, the difference between the dashed blue lines, is muchsmaller than the difference between the dashed green lines (crop calories). This magnifying effect is due to the quantity offeed calories required per calorie of animal product.

9Land use change from 2010 to 2050 across selected scenarios
S1

S2 highproductivity

S2 low
livestock

S2croplandgrasslandS2 highlivestock

S2 lowproductivity

S3200

million hectares

150
100500‐50‐100‐150
forestNote: Total world cropland in 2010 was approximately 1.5 billion hectares.

10Summary• World demand for calories from crops– Model‐based projections from 2010 to 2050
– Demand for crop calories increases by 52 percent from2010 to 2050 in “middle of the road” scenario, or about
1.1 percent per year

• Drivers of food demand and land use– Shared Socio‐economic Pathways• Population• Income growth per capita• Dietary preference• Agricultural productivity– Climate change impacts and adaptation– Limiting CO2 emissions through bioenergy

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