Global Environment Outlook 4: An Overview
Rajesh Nair
Social and Environment Systems Division
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan
March 11, 2005

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamStructure of the Presentation• The Background• The GEO 4 Process• The Outlook

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team• The Background• The GEO 4 Process• The Outlook Component

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe Human Challenge
Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty• life expectancy increasing• infant mortality decreasing• agricultural production increasing
Major problems remain• 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day• 1 billion people do not have access to clean water• More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation• 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards
considered acceptable by WHO• 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due
to biomass burning• Human population increasing at 80 million per year
Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamGrowing Demand For Environmental Services
Food
Food production
must increase tomeet the needs of anadditional 3 billionpeople over the next30 years

Water

One-third of theworld’s population
is now subject towater scarcity.
Population facing
water scarcity
would double overthe next 30 years

Fuel Wood

Wood is the only
source of fuel for
one third of theworld’s population.
Wood demand
likely to increase

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe Background•The UNEP GEO project was initiated in response to•Environmental reporting requirements of Agenda 21•UNEP governing council decision of May 1995
•The coordinated global network of collaborating centers (CCs) isat the core of the GEO process•Reports are produced using regional and participatory approach

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamPrinciple of Access to Environmental Information
Agenda 21 and the Malmo Ministerial Declaration of 2000
•Agenda 21 stresses on the role of information anddissemination of scientific information in a mannersuitable for both planning and public information.

•Malmo Ministerial Declaration of 2000 emphasizes onintensifying scientific research and freedom of access toenvironmental information.

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe GEO Project Is…
•A global environmental assessment process that is crosssectoral•It incorporates regional views and builds consensus onpriority issues and actions through dialogue•Aims to strengthen environmental assessment capacity in theregions through training and learning by doing.
•Is participatory and consultative with active involvement ofregions and stakeholders

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe GEO 3 Regions

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe Global Environment Outlook
GEO 1 published 1997

GEO 2 published 2000

GEO 3 published 2002

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Major Constituents of GEO Reports
Integrating Environment Development•1970’s: Foundation of modern environmentalism•1980’s: Defining sustainable development•1990’s: Implementing sustainable development
State of the Environment and policy retrospective•Land, forests, biodiversity, freshwater, coastal and marine areas,atmosphere, urban areas, disasters
Human vulnerability to environmental change•Understanding vulnerability (vulnerable groups, places)•How people are affected (health, food security, economic losses)•Responding to human vulnerability (adaptation, early warning)Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamState of the Environment

World population in Millions
Source: UNPD 2001
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (USD 1995/year)
Source: WB 2001

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamState of the Environment

Extent of degraded land
Source: UNEP, GRID Arendal 2001
Water availability measured in terms of 1 000 m3 per capita/year
Source: UNDP,UNEP,WB, WRI 2000

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Major Constituents of GEO Reports
Outlook•Driving forces•A tale of four futures•Environmental implications•Lessons from the future
Options for action•Meeting socio economic targets•Role of information•Recommendations for making policy work

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamGEO Project is…
•A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on
the needs of decision-makers
Stakeholders: Governments
 Private Sector
 Civil Society

Assessment

Monitoring

Research•A scientific assessment applies the judgment of experts to existingknowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy
relevant questions.

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team• The Background• The GEO 4 Process• The Outlook

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamKey Questions and Elements
The Context•Which are the environmental issues to be given
prominence?
•Focus on human well being, vulnerability, development
goals (MDGs)•How far are we from achieving the set goals•What is the regional context and what are their priorities

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamKey Questions and Elements
State and trends of the environment at global and regional level•The current state of environment vis a vis targets•Linking environmental reporting with policy analysis•How is environment contributing to cross cutting goals of health,food security, poverty alleviation, energy,vulnerability•Assessment at global level and where appropriate at subregional level•Broadly issues covered belong to the categories
Air, Land, Water.
•What are the drivers of change and the emerging challenges

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamKey Questions and Elements
The Challenges and opportunities•Which goals have been met, what are the lessons learnt andhow far have we come since Brundtland.
•Has the perspective on long term challenges changed•Have socio economic and political developments shifted ourpriorities•Has science given us new insights into the complexity anddynamics of environmental changes•What are the new challenges the international community
faces and what are the opportunities

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamKey Questions and Elements
The Outlook•The extent and direction of opportunities (actions) would
determine different out looks for the future.
•GEO 4 will explore possible futures•Markets first, Policy first, Security first, Sustainability
first•Regional differentiation and regional and global implications
to be explored•Implications of decisions made today

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team• The Background• The GEO 4 Process• The Outlook

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe Outlook (A Tale of Four Futures)Markets First•Factors combine to make the shift to a liberalized, market
oriented society almost universal.
•Convergence towards dominant values and development
paths•Privatization spreads, social safety nets are reduced andreliance is placed on market-based approaches
Policy First• Decisive initiatives are taken by governments in an attempt
to reach specific social and environmental goals.
•Incremental policy adjustments steer conventional
development towards environmental and policy reduction
goals.

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThe Outlook (A Tale of Four Futures)
Security First•A world of striking disparities where inequality and conflictprevail.
•Powerful and wealthy groups focus on self protection•Cohesion leading to authoritarian order throughout much ofthe world
Sustainability First•A new development paradigm emerges•Pluralism, planetary solidarity, new values and institutions inresponse to the challenge of sustainability

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Mapping Assessment Scenarios
A1T
A1B

MF, PF

Economy

A1

A2

A1FI

Globalizm

B1
SUS F

SEC FRegionalism

B2

Environment
Population
Agriculture(land use)
Economic growthTechnology Energy

Driving Forces

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamSome GEO 3 Outlook Results
2002

Global CO2 emissions (btc/yr)
Source: Image 2.2

Ecosystems impacted by infrastructure expansion
Source: Globio

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamSome GEO 3 Outlook Results

Energy related CO2 emissions for Asia PacificSource: NIESMSW generation in the Asia PacificSource: NIESAsia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamDiscussion
GEO 3•The narratives drove the process•Quantitative analysis to support and illustrate the narratives•Departure from IPCC SRES scenarios where
quantitative modeling was the primary focus•Considers environmental issues in addition to CC•Quantitative efforts focused on reproducing information fromavailable scenarios akin to GEO 3 scenarios•One of the first efforts to undertake regional participation inthe scenario exercise.

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Proposed Plan for the Outlook
Component of GEO-4
Starting point•The GEO-3 scenarios will act as the first draft scenarios for
GEO-4.
•The focus of the work will be on the global and regional
levels with some differentiation, as appropriate, on a subregional level.
Temporal Specification•Time horizon for narratives and quantification will be 2050
•Reporting of indicators in 2015 (short-term)•Certain environmental indicators to 2100 (long-term)Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Proposed Plan for the Outlook
Component of GEO-4
Proposed Purpose and Key Questions•Where does each scenario stand in relation to specific goals?
•What are intermediate and long-term implications of current(and already taken) actions?
•What are the contrasting ‘costs’ (in a broad sense) for
achieving particular sustainability goals under the scenarios?
•How, and how well, can different actors/regions respond to afuture shock/disturbance/new insight/concern under thedifferent scenarios?

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

Proposed Plan for the Outlook
Component of GEO-4
Content Elements•Specific priority, cross-cutting, and emerging issues•Trends in key drivers, e.g. population, consumption,production, and technology•Trends in key environmental indicators, e.g. pollutant levels,
land cover, and biodiversity•Progress toward specific goals and targets, e.g. MDGs
•Global story with regional elements, separate regional stories
for each of the scenarios, (sub-)regions free to elaborate onissues that are important to them

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling Team

GEO-4 Report Timeline•June 2004: Initiated•March 2005-06: Content development and first draft•April-June 2006: Peer review and regional consultations•July- Oct 2006: Second draft and peer review•Nov- Dec 2006: Final draft•Jan-Aug 2007: Editing, layout and printing•September 2007: Launch and distribution

Asia Pacific Integrated Modeling TeamThank You