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8 August 2020

WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce Expert Survey(4⽉下旬実施)結果からみた
世界の感染現象、緊急対策と新常態のあり⽅について

林 良嗣（中部⼤学 持続発展・スマートシティ国際研究センター）
張 峻屹（広島⼤学⼤学院 先進理⼯系科学研究科）

Content 1

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The COVID-19 Pandemic• Spread rapidly across the world.
• A huge number of infections and death.
• Biggest challenge to human society since theSpanish Flu in 1918.
• The whole world is connected to each other bymuch more convenient transport systems andinformation

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3Two Faces of Transport underPandemic• Causer of Infections• Unintentionally contributed to the spread of the virus
through international and urban passenger travel• Supply-chain disruption undermined economic activities• An integral part of solutions• to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 through thedelivery of humanitarian goods and services• to facilitate resilient supply chains for the recovery
phase.

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41. Causing Infections• Airlines can transport infected passengers from one
side of the world to the other, within half a day.
• Passengers in crowded public transport are more at
risk of infection than automobile users.
• There is increasing evidence of health risks to staff
providing essential transport services.
• Infections among operational staff and reduction oftransport services will lead to the collapse of supply
chains and consequently lower the productivity ofindustries.
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2. Low Resilience in Transport
5. Reduction of passengers by lockdown and emergency
declaration may bankrupt the transport and tourism
industries, thus worsening the regional and nationaleconomy.
6. Lockdowns have increased pressures on the supply
chains of vital goods for medical care and for citizens’
daily life.
7. In developing countries, paratransit and otherinformal transport services are very popular becauseof their low fares and flexibility, but both passengers
and drivers face high risks of infection because drivers
are poorly equipped and operate in close proximity topassengers.

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6Can Transport be built backbetter?
1. It may be recommended for citizens totemporarily shift from public transit to cars toavoid the risk of infection. However, this may
become a permanent change in transport
behavior even after COVID-19 has been
eradicated?
2. Social distancing requires to stay at home andshut-downs of offices, schools, shops, restaurants,
tourism places, amusement parks, etc. Can we(citizens, transport operators) build back better?
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COVID-19 Taskforce Membership
Chair and Co-Chairs of WCTRS COVID-TF
Yoshitsugu Hayashi; Junyi Zhang, Lawrence D. FrankAdvisors•

Tae Oum, President of WCTRS; Werner Rothengatter, Ex-President of WCTRSMembers (International Coordinators)••

Greg Marsden, Secretary General of WCTRS; KE Seetha Ram, Dr. Eng., Senior
Consulting Specialist, ADBI; Holger Dalkmann, Founder and CEO of Sustain 2030

Members (Country/Region Coordinators)•Peter John Forsyth(Monash U); Hitomi Nakanishi(U of Cambera), Australia•

Chikage Miyoshi, Cranfield U, UK; Junko Sugawara, U of Houston, USA•

S. Velmurugan, CSIR - CRRI, India; Yacan Wang, Beijing Jiaoton U, China•

Varameth Vichiensan, Kasetsert U, Thailand; Francesca Pagliara, U of Naples, Italy

Members (Topical Coordinators)•33 SIG Chairs
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Content 3

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9Residence country ofexperts
USA/Canada,
13.4%

Africa, 2.5%

China, 21.5%
South Korea,
6.3%
Pacific, 1.8%

Other Asia
11.6%

Middle East,
2.5%

Europe, 17.6%

Latin America,
2.1%
Japan, 10.9%
8 August 2020 (林 良嗣、張 峻屹)India, 9.9%

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10Type of workplace andprofessional experience
Education:
69.7%
university, school,college, etc.
Research institute / 19.0%
think tankFirm
14.4%Governments
11.6%
NGO / NPO / Intl Org 7.4%
/ others

8 August 2020 (林 良嗣、張 峻屹)>20 years,
38.0%

15-20years,
16.2%

⼟⽊計画学ワンデーセミナー<= 5years,
16.5%
5-10 years,
15.8%

10-15years,
13.4%
11WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force:
Expert Survey• The WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, established in April 2020, has implemented a questionnaire
survey to experts in fields of transport and logistics, urban and regional planning and so on,
since the end of April 2020. The survey aims to investigate the following contents related to thetransport and logistics sector.
• Impacts: to investigate the impacts of COVID-19• Preparedness: to investigate what our society had prepared for such a pandemic• During-pandemic measures: to investigate what our society is currently taking measures to fightagainst this pandemic• After-pandemic recovery measures: to suggest what our society should do after this pandemic• Long-term strategies: to explore how to generalize the findings from the above actions to tackle
other public health threats

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12Preparedness:
Guidelines
against publichealth threats

River/canal transport system
Maritime system: Freight
Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.

Logistics facilities
Maritime system: Passenger
Expressway, motorway, highway
Taxis

Aviation system
Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)No guidelines for the above systems

Bus system
Do not know or not sure

Others (25)

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

South Korea (18)

India (28)Japan (31)Europe (50)

China (61)

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8 August 2020Other(林 良嗣、張Asia (33)峻屹) USA/Canada (38)

45.0%

60.0%

75.0%13

Measures
taken
during thepandemic

OthersMilitary forces were or have been dispatched to transport
emergency logistics materials.
Drones and/or robots have been used to inform people to keepsocial distances and wear masks, etc.
Military forces were or have been dispatched to take care of
emergency medical services.
Monetary compensations have been paid to transport andlogistics firms suffering from economic losses.
Protection measures for social distancing have been taken basedon information collected by tracing behavior trajectories via
mobile phone, security video camera, credit card and/or otherhigh-tech media.

Economic stimulus measures have been taken for recovery ofindustries.
Monetary compensations have been paid to citizens for income
reduction, medical treatment, etc.
Physical distancing measures have been taken in public transport
and their stations/stops (e.g., bus passengers use only rear doors
to avoid close contact with the driver, bus/rail opens windows
during operation).
Physical-distancing-friendly goods delivery has been widelypracticed.

Stay-at-home campaign has been propagated across the wholecity/town.
0.0%

8 August
良嗣、張峻屹)(28)
Others(25) 2020
South(林Korea(18) India

20.0%

40.0%

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Japan (31)Other Asia (33)60.0%

USA/Canada (38)80.0%Europe (50)100.0%

China (61)14

Recommendations
during the pandemic

OthersMake an online booking before using a public
transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)
Restrict the passengers to get into public
transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)

Physical exercise alone or with few people
Avoid eating out
Online lectures

Telework (or online work)
Avoid having a gathering event (e.g., park,square/plaza, church)
Online meetings
0.0%
Others (25)South Korea (18)

20.0%

40.0%

India (28)

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Asia(33) 峻屹)USA/Canada(38) Europe (50)
8 AugustOther
2020 (林良嗣、張60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Japan (31)China (61)15Modal shifts

Othersfrom public transport to motorcyclefrom public transport to bicyclefrom public transport to walking

from public transport to car
0.0%

Others (25)20.0%South Korea (18)40.0%

India (28)

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Other
Asia
(33) 峻屹)USA/Canada(38) Europe (50)
8 August2020(林 良嗣、張60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Japan (31)China (61)16The car dependence will become more obvious due
to adverse reactions to crowded public transport
during the COVID-19 pandemic
Family bonds will be enhanced significantly
The society will become more isolated due to theprogress of online activities and smart technologies(AI, IoT, robotics, etc.)

Online education will be a standard model ofeducation
Online shopping will become the most popular
shopping activity

More and more people will choose to live far fromthe city center

Changesin lifestyles

More and more people will out-migrate from
populated cities
Working hours will become longer
More and more people will choose a job allowing
them to mainly work at home

Online working (working at home, neighboringsatellite offices, cafes, etc.) will become popular
Infection risk level of a job will determine job
choices0.0%
Others (25)

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OtherAsia (33)

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

South Korea(18)
India (28)
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Japan (31)USA/Canada (38)China (61)Europe (50)80.0%

100.0%

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The expected changes will contribute to improving
resilience and sustainability of the transport andlogistics sector.
Significant changes will occur, within five years, intransport and logistics policymaking due to lessons
from COVID-19.
The intervention of governments totransport/logistics industries will be strengthened
after COVID-19.
The cost structure of the transport and logistics
sector may be altered dramatically to prepare for
future public health threats.
The induced growth of online business andautomation will lead to more unemployment.
More and more intra-city business trips for meetings
will be replaced by online meetings.
More and more inter-city business trips for meetings
will be replaced by online meetings.

Smart technologies (e.g., AI, IoT, robotics) will bethe key to detect and sound the alarm on theoccurrence of future public health threats
Online services of government, bank, ticket
purchase, etc. will become a standard service.
Social and economic systems will not return to theprevious ones before COVID-19.

Changes in society
Others (25)

8 August 2020Other(林 良嗣、張峻屹)
Asia (33)

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

South⼟⽊計画学ワンデーセミナー
Korea (18)
India (28)Japan (31)USA/Canada (38)China (61)Europe (50)80.0%

100.0%

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WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force:
The first-round expert survey• Zhang, J., Hayashi, Y. (2020) Impacts of COVID-19
on the transport sector and measures as well asrecommendations of policies and future research:
Analyses based on a world-wide expert survey.
Available at SSRN:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_
id=3611806

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Content 3

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Recommended Measures & Actions
by WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce (1)https://www.wctrs-society.com/about-wctrs/wctrs-covid-19-task-force/wctrs-covid-19-appeal/• To allocate enough resources to allow airlines toimmediately reduce flights, which will help prevent thespread of COVID-19 and enable a responsible and safe
transition in the recovery process.
• To financially support the deficit facing the transportand logistics industries, which are lifelines for regional
economies and citizens’ daily life and health.
• To financially support public transport service providers
and their employees, as well as service users, bysubsidizing services during the transition fromlockdown restrictions.
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Recommended Measures & Actions
by WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce (2)https://www.wctrs-society.com/about-wctrs/wctrs-covid-19-task-force/wctrs-covid-19-appeal/• To prevent increased car dependence due to adverse
reactions to public transport services after the pandemic.
• To urgently develop knowledge on how best tocommunicate with the public about risks and safe use of
public transport and movement in crowded places.
• To promote collaboration between public health, transportand supply chain experts to inform policy-makers’ decisions
about lockdowns.
• To make use of the “new normal” after COVID-19 toencourage changes toward more environmentally
sustainable life and work choices after the crisis.

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Recommended Measures & Actions
by WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce (3)https://www.wctrs-society.com/about-wctrs/wctrs-covid-19-task-force/wctrs-covid-19-appeal/• To share the learning of successes and failures in
responding to COVID-19 across countries all over theworld.
• To take immediate measures to sanitize public
transport vehicles/facilities and maintain safe loading
factors for different vehicles at different levels of virus
management.
• To provide urgent international aid to compensate
operators/drivers of paratransit and other informaltransport services in developing countries for theireconomic losses due to social distancing and otheroperational restrictions.

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Content 4

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24Normal/Dream in 20th Century are
Abnormal/Inconvenient in 21st Century
1. Big gaps in economy between metropolises and rural areas
2. Living in 5 bedroom big house in a metropolitan suburb andcommuting by a big car – American dream during 1939-1960
continued still in 2020
3. A massive amount of passengers have been transported byairlines to do business, with huge emissions of CO2 andpollutants
4. Big car was a symbol of economic prosperity and prestige
5. Metropolitan Mass dependent life is Non-resilient inemergency
6. But rural people wish to enjoy Musical and Opera of New York
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New Normal in Work - Life Style for 21st Century
1. Equal opportunity for business and income in rural areas
with small damage on ecosystem
2. Remote working within company– a venture company
abolished their office in Manhattan, New York. This has
made employees’ living in 1 K apartment house migrate toremote even to Tennessee to live in greens with high QOL
3. Tele-conference/business meetings with customers require
no flight for long distance preserving rich free time
4. We don’t need 5-seater+ big cars in town. Walking, bicycle
and small smart vehicles are sufficient for virus free andhealth
5. Reversible Society with down-sized economy
6. Transport must serve Sanitized flights to New York.

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New Normal in Transport for 21st Century• Down sized equilibrium of sales and cost to maximize profit
in Transport operators• Peak-cut merits: less per hour demand-intensity with lower
cost for Infrastructureà Do not be afraid of downsizing!
• Resilience: Reversible Society, Redundancy of Infrastructure,Contingency Plan
• Transport small [not make unnecessary trips], Benefit large• Transport not all at peak hours/seasons, but only essentialworkers and freights• Clear policy of congestion charge & off-peak hour discountto realize non-congested transport and cities – Company
Season Ticket

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What does COVID-19 suggest to Human Society?
How to live in Anthropocene ?
• Healthier life (QOL, GNH) as outcome of social activity
appreciated in 21st century rather than higher prosperity(Income, GDP) as input to the life sought in 20th century• Less income with less passengers but even less cost tomaintain infrastructure by peak-cut (Down-sizedEquilibrium)à Higher net income and increased personaltime• Resilient Society• Emergency adaptive life-work style• Climate Emergency à Excessive Extreme Weather• Reversible Society à Infrastructure with Rooms and Redundant• Never-coming chance to mindset for human beings

Ø Anthropocene: see Club of Rome 50th Anniversary Book “Come On!”(Springer, 2018) (⽇本語版：明⽯書店)<https://clubofrome.org/>

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