Indonesia NDC roadmap on
AFOLU and Energy sector
Rizaldi Boer and Retno Gumilang Dewi
Email: rizaldiboer@gmail.com; ccrom_rizaldi@apps.ipb.ac.id
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific
IPB University;
Centre on Research for Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology

INTRODUCTION
3,000

Forestry
Waste

Agriculture
Energy

IPPU

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000500
‐BAU

BAU

2010

CM12030

NDC

CM2Net Emission(Mt
Net Emission(Gt CO2e)CO2e)

Emission (Mton CO2e)

3,500

Excluding Non‐AFOLU

1000
1.0
900
0.9
800
0.80.7700
0.66000.5500
0.4
400
0.3
300
0.2
200
0.1
10000.0‐0.1‐100

Emission Reduction Target by 2030

2010
NDC BaU

2020

2030

NDC CM12040

2050

NDC CM2

38%

DD

59%

Critically insufficient

EnergyWaste
IPPU
Agriculture
LUCF

1.31%
0.34%
1.10%

Highly insufficientInsufficient
2°C compatible
1.5°C Paris Agreementcompatible

2

PROGRESS2500

The increase of emission in2014 and 2015 mainly due tothe increase of emission fromFOLU due to peat fire

1500

1000500

2010
FOLU

2011

2012

2013

Agriculture

Waste

2014
IPPU

2015
EnergySource: MoEF, 2018

ActualBAU

ActualBAU

ActualBAU

ActualBAU

ActualBAU

ActualBAU

Actual0BAU

Emission (Mton CO2e)

2000

2016

In the period of 2010‐2016, byexcluding FOLU, the cumulative
ER reached 555 Mt CO2e(equivalent to reduction ofabout 9.4% from BAU), while byincluding FOLU, it decreased to269 Mt CO2e (equivalent toreduction of about 2.4% fromBAU)

Reducing Deforestation (2018‐2030)
16000

BAU=15.53 Mha

Total Deforestasi 2013-2030 (000 ha)

14000
12000

Total = 10.50 Mha
Protection = 5.85 Mha(PP46/2016)

10000
8000

CM1=7.26 Mha

Deforestation Quota• 3.96 Mha to CM1• 0.84 Mha to CM2

6000
4000

Natural Forest in Concession
areas 2017
HTI= 2.92 Mha
HGU= 1.44 Mha
PIAPS = 6.14 Mha

CM1=4.15 Mha

CM1=3,30 Mha (2013‐2017)

2000
02 Main Strategies

Based on MOEF (2019)

Controlling the conversion of naturalforest in concession areas with incentivesystem (PERMEN LHK 70/2017)
Permanent moratorium for theissuance of new permit in primary
forest and peatland outside theconcession: INPRES 5/2019

Managing Illegal Driverof deforestation (SocialForestry: PERMEN LHK83/2016 and TORAScenario to meet the NDC Target
Jenis Konsesi
Social Forestry
HTI
Agriculture Plantation
Total Conservation
Total Convertible in concession
Cap outside concession(Unconditional target)
Deep Decarbonization (Capoutside concession) CM2(Conditional Target)

Optimum Scenario%ha89.4 5,490,434
61.0 1,779,351
62.1
896,232
8,166,017
2,334,526

Progressive Scenario%Ha89.4 5,490,434
80.5 2,349,097
81.0 1,169,772
9,009,303
1,491,240

1.601,474

2,333,760‐1,489,526‐646,240

Forest in concession: 10.5 Mha‐Timber Plantation = 2.92 Mha; Agriculture Plantation = 1.44 Mha; Social
Forestry = 6.14 Mha; Side aside for protection based on Ecosystem Services 5.85 Mha

Bio‐geophysical Index (Minister Regulation 70/2017)
Historical
Deforestati
1: High
3: Medium5: Low000

Extremely HighVery highHigh
Quite highMediumQuite Low
Low
Very low
Extremely Low
No Forest0 1:<10
1.0
2.0
3.0

Current Percent Forest Cover
2: 10‐20
3: 20‐30
4: 30‐50
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.5

5: 50‐80
3.0
4.0
5.0

6: >80
3.5
4.5
5.5

IBGF‐Central
Kalimantan

140,0001,200,000

131,178

120,000

1,000,000

100,000

91,21680,000800,000
75,01971,964600,000
60,00049,81835,93440,00020,0002,580‐‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐‐41,927 400,000

14,2696,627‐ ‐‐U N IT IV
U N IT IX
U N IT XXXIIU N IT XXXIIIU N IT I
U N IT II
U N IT III
U N IT V
U N IT V I
U N IT V IIU N IT V III
U N IT X
U N IT XIU N IT XIIU N IT XIIIU N IT XIVU N IT XIXU N IT XVU N IT XV I
U N IT XV IIU N IT XV III
U N IT XX
U N IT XXI
U n it XXII, U nit XX V I
U N IT XXIIIU N IT XXIVU N IT XXIXU N IT X XVU N IT XXV IIU N IT XXV III
U N IT XXXU N IT XXXI‐

14,275KPHL

Type A1, A2,B1, B2

200,000

Type C4‐Type A3, B3

KPHP
TinggiRendahForested land in FMU exposed tohigh risk of deforestation

Minister Regulation No. 6/2010: Policies that support the development of units mandated toimprove management of forests in protection and production forests  Instituional typology  Useas guide for prioritizing the area for the implementation of Social Forestry, and Land Rehabilitation)

Target: Land Rehabilitation and Peat Management
Actions

Skenario

Peat restoration(x1000 ha)1BAU
CM1
CM2
Aktual2
BAU
CM1
CM2
Aktual2

Improve watermanagement(x1000 ha)

Kumulative(2014‐2030)
‐
1,396
2,908
‐
‐
1,656
1,728
‐

1‐ Successful rate 90%
Source: MoEF, 2018
Presidential Regulation No. 57/2016 as revision to Presidential Regulation No. 71/2014: apply more rigid rules in using
peat land and mandating government at all levels, to develop protection and management of peat land in coordinatedways and also to restore/rehabilitate the degraded peat landControlling Peat Fire
• Presidential Instruction No. 11/2015: Policies
that mandate all level of governments to develop
land and forest fire management system at theirjurisdiction and sanction for business players
who do not implement the fire management in
the area under their authority• With this policy, many of concession have beenbrought into the court and most cases theGovernment win the case. The penalty fund isplanned to be used for financing mitigation
activities (also incentive ~ PresidentialRegulation 47/2017 Environmental Economic
Instrument EEI Regulate incentive, disincentive
and financial support for environmental
protection and management)

Extensive areas of deforested anddrained peatlands are not cultivated andhave extreme fire risk ~ >2 Mha

Drained Peatland is very vulnerable to fires

Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) in Production
ForestActions

Rate(x1000 ha)

Scenarios Cumulative(2013‐2030)
BAU
18.259CM1
31.099CM2
31.099Aktual2‐• Implementation of RIL (Reduce Impact Logging,RIL) and ENR (Enhanced Natural Regeneration)• Minister Regulation No. 30/2016 on evaluationof performance of forest management
Policies that mandate all forest concession
holders to have forest sustainable management
certification. To ensure all concessions holders
apply sustainable management practices

Source: MoEF, 2018

Crown Cover<30%
30%‐70%>70%
Total

Conservation
17,589422,715

Non‐FMU
30,216383,269

FMU
184,316
2,285,067

APL
149,045
1,822,375

Total
381,166
4,913,425

16,130,479
16,570,783

5,806,979
6,220,464

56,193,743
58,663,126

4,931,265
6,902,684

83,062,465
88,357,057

Conclusion and Remark• Mainstreaming the NDC in the process of revision of spatial plan anddeveloping medium and long‐term development plan
• Enhancing the participation of non‐Party Actors (Private sectors) withincentive system• Strengthening and acceleration of establishment Forest Management Unitin high risk area and synchronization of program across directorate
supporting the social forestry programs and TORA
• Facilitating the adoption of farming system adapted to peat ecosystem andaccess to market• Increasing access to fund for implementing climate actions (Public ServiceAgency for Environmental Fund)NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES & DEVELOPMENT TRENDS: ENERGYBaU vs Miigation
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
BaUPopGDP/CapMitigation

Prim. Energy/cap

2010

2015

BaU

Mitigation

Final Energy/cap

2020

2025

BaU

Mitigation

Electricity/cap

BaU

Mitigation

GHG/cap2030

 Main driver of GHG emissions over the past decade has been economic activity, which
increased at a rate of 5% to 6% per year, in which it will keep 5.5% (2020 to 2030)
 Decreasing energy use per GDP in mitigation scenario (compared to BaU) indicate
improvement of efficiency
 Carbon intensity is still increasing indicate more fossil energy use Economic Growth Means Greater Accessfor Energy, considering the use of baseline
technologies, this could lead to a climb infuture energy related emissions.
 Fast‐growing economy – rapidly increasing
and fast‐changing demand for energy.
 National Energy Policy: Security &Independences₋ Moving away from Oil, reducing Oil to25% of total supply in 2025
₋ Utilization of strategic assets (Coal andNatural Gas)₋ Energy efficiency improvements
₋ New Energy (nuclear, CBM, shale‐gas)and Renewable energies.
 Distribution challenge for a nation ofthousands island

PILARS OF DECARBONIZATION
Final Energy/GDP, TOE/Million Rp
2030

Mitigation
BaU

2010

Pillar 1
Energy efficiency measures would decrease energy
intensity of GDP (Energy per GDP)

Base Year

2010

Pillar 2
Renewable Energy will reduce fossil fuelcombustions and reduce emission

2030

0.65

0.75

0.77

0.79

Baseline
Base Year‐
Oil Product100
Natural Gas

200
Hydro300
Solar&Wind

400
Biomasa500
Geothermal

600
BiofuelEnergy supply in power, MToe
2030

Mitigation2010

Baseline
Base Year‐Coal100
Oil200Natural Gas

300

Hydro

400

Solar&Wind500

Biomasa600

Geothermal

700
Biofuel2030

Final Energy Consumption, MTOE

2010

Pillar 4
Fuel Switching to low carbon emitting fuels (fromkerosene to LPG or natural gas) would decrease GHG
emission in Households

0.69
0.71
0.73
Primary Energy Supply, MToe

Mitigation

Coal

Pilar 3
Decarbonization of electricity will reduce fossil fuelcombustions and reduce emission (as long as thepower generation is also decarbonized)

0.67

Mitigation
Baseline
Base Year0Coal50

Oil Product100150Natural Gas

200250

Biomassa300350Electricity

400450

BiofuelGHG Emissions Reduction Target of The NDC in Energy Sector
ENERGY

GHG Emission in Million Ton CO2e314

Energy Efficiency

RENEWABLE

Clean Energy

Fuel Switching

96.86

149.86

57.76

9.52

Power

Residential 9.52

42.93

Industry 26.58

Transport 21.79

Industry

14.09

Power113.61

Transport 22.16

Commerce 5.56

Energy efficiency:
Industry:
Residential:
Kerosene 80ktoe‐Coal 239 kktoe‐Oil fuels 425 ktoe
Gas 38 ktoe
Electric. 2,622ktoe

Commerce:
Oil fuel 2 ktoe
Gas 1 ktoe
Electric.161 ktoe

‐Gas1,196 ktoe
‐Electric 647 ktoe

Transport:‐Oil Fuels 7,366 ktoe

‐Gas 4 ktoe
‐Electric. 16 ktoe

Additional biomass
Compared to 2010

Industry:‐Biomass use
4,775ktoe

Additional renewab.
electricity
compared to 2010
Power generation:

Addition of biofuel
compared to 2010

‐Hydro2,621 ktoe
‐Geothermal

7,708 ktoe

3,507 ktoe.

‐Solar&Wind
317 ktoe‐Biomass363 ktoe
‐Biofuel644ktoe

Transport:‐Biofuel use

CCT

50.32

GAS

7.44

Power generation‐SC 1,692 ktoe
‐USC 5,692 ktoe

Additional gas
use compared to2010‐Gas turb &Comb cycl.
820 ktoeResidential‐7,100 ktoe

Energy Supply Mix in Power Sector and The Associated GHG Emissions
700
600

Inst.
Capacity
(MW)

2019

190

2.138.5

294

2020

151

2.289.5

2021

147

2022

Geothermal

Geothermal

TWh

300

Oil
Coal

200
100
‐Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigasi Baseline Mitigation
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

CPO Based Power

Add.
(MW)

Inst.
Capacity
(MW)

5.233

63

88,19

0

71,07

564

5.797

78,5

166,69071,07

738,8

783,0

2.436.5

1.234

7.031

219,3385,99

30

101,1

108,8891,8455

2.891.5

200

7.231

129514,99360

461,1108,8

1000,62023

300

3.191.5

350

7.581

160,3675,29

260

721,1108,81109,42024

360

3.551.5

1.716

9.297

3,7678,99

50

771,1

108,8

1218,22025

3690

7.241.5

3.074

12.371

250

928,99

150

921,1

110,5

1328,7

Solar&Wind
Natural Gas

Wind Energy

Inst.
Capacity
(MW)

Hydro
400

Solar Energy
Add.
(MW)

Year

Biomasa
500

Add.
(MW)

Hydro and Pump
Storage
Inst.
Add.
Capacity(MW)(MW)

Biofuel

Add.
(MW)

Inst.
Capacity(MW)
44,20.7
BiofuelGeothermal
Biomasa
Solar&Wind
Hydro
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal0.6GTon CO2e

0.5
0.4
0.3

0.1
0.0
Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigasi Baseline Mitigation
2015

2020
62
12.5
52021
55.2
00202270
23402023
39.8
002024102.6002025
4
100

3.5

50.7

1552.9

505

132.1

6.4
11.9

8.5
138.7

070.2

0356.9549.80102.6

019

19.9
749

Bio Energy Technology

0.2

2010

2019
020

Cummulative
upto 2025
(MW)
2026
333.6
258.5
5

2020

2025

2030

Biodiesel (PLT Bio)
MSW Power (PLTSa)
CPO Biofuel (PLTBn CPO)
Biomass(PLTBm)
Biogas(PLTBg)
Total

Additional Capacity of Bioenergy (MW)Final Energy Use (not Include Transport) and The Associated GHG Emissions
1.4250Industry
Emission, GTon CO2e200

Residential
Commerce

MToe150

Industry

1.2

100
50

1.0

Residential

0.8

Commerce

0.6
0.4
0.2

‐Baseline
2010250

2015

Baseline

CM12020

Baseline

CM12025

Baseline

Baseline

2030

2010

1.4

Emission, GTon CO2e

150

0.0

CM1Electricity
BiomassNat GasOil
Coal200

MToe

CM1100CM12015

Baseline

CM12020

Baseline

CM12025

Baseline

CM12030

Electricity

1.2

Biomass

1.0

Gas

0.8Oil Fuels
Coal0.6
0.4
0.2

500.0
Baseline‐Baseline
2010

2015

CM1Baseline
2020

CM1Baseline
2025

CM1

Baseline
2030

CM12010

CM12015

Baseline

CM12020

Baseline

CM12025

Baseline

CM12030

Energy Supply Mix in Power Sector and The Associated GHG Emissions
Emission Reduction,
Mton CO2e
2010

2020

2025

Natural Gas

BiofuelMitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline
2015

Oil Product

2030

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.20.1

2010

2015
Oil Product2020
Natural Gas

2025
BiofuelMitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline

Mitigation

Baseline

0.0
Base YearGHG Emission, MTon CO2e

Greening of airport

35

Street light PV
30

SBNP

25

Train Double Track North Java

20

Ship Efficiency (EEDI+SEEMP)
SmarT drive

15

TraiN freIght
10

Base Year

Final Energy, MToe

40
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
‐2030

Plane renewal

50
2018

PBN
Mass transport
2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Increased efficiency of the transportation system, which includes:₋ Increased mass transportation: BRT, MRT, LRT, Train
₋ Increased efficiency of transport equipment: vehicle rejuvenation,
₋ Electric motorized vehicles: KBL, LCEV (with low carbon electricity)
₋ Energy‐efficient vehicles: LCGC (Low Cost Green Car)₋ Increased efficiency in land transportation management: odd even, Area Traffic Control
System (ATCS), Performance Based Navigation (PBN)₋ Improvement of ship efficiency: Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Ship Energy Efficiency
Management Plan (SEEMP)₋ Double track Pantura train
₋ Increased use of trains for the transport of goods (moving from trucks to trains)₋ Development of Sailing Navigation Supporting Facilities (SBNP)
Increased use of low emissions fuels include:₋ CNG Vehicle Upgrade (replaces BBM)₋ Increased octane number (RON> 88)
₋ Increased use of biofuel (replacing BBM)

Million ton CO2e

Industry Sector
3530
Energy efficiency
2520
15105‐Biomass

Conclusions and Remarks

25,000Transportasi

20,000

Konstruksi

15000
13000
BaU

Industri Pulp Kertas

9000

CM1

Industri Manufaktur

7000

100119
BaU

80

CM1
60
40
2002028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

5000
2014

Agro‐Ternak‐Hutan‐‐
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Perikanan

2012

Energi‐Tambang‐Utilitas

2010

5,000

17000

11000

Industri Kimia
15,00010,00018,9242010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

2030

Industri Besi BajaPDB, triliun rupiah

Gross Output, Triliun Rupiah

Industri Semen
30,000

124

120

19000

Employment, Million People

Industri Jasa (Services)
35,000Gross Output Increase

24
2220Baseline

CM1

9.6 x30z MSW power

181630b Bioenergy

141230w Wind

10830h Hydro

6430g Geothermal

2001
02
03
04
05a05b06
0708
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2223a23b
24
25
26
27
28
2930tc30to30tg
30g
30h30s30w
30b30z
31
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
414243444546Rasio Output per sub‐sektor pada tahun
2030 (2010=1)

140

19,08240,000050Mitigation

100BaU150

200250Conclusion and Remark

1. There are four Pilars for achieving the target of GHG emissions reduction under the NDC road map: (1) energy
efficiency, (2) renewable energy, (3) clean power (decarbonization of electricity), fuel switching to Low Carbon
Emitting fuels (kerosene to LPG/Natural Gas) in households; among of these pillars, renewable energy willcontribute to the reduction of about 48% of total GHG emissions reduction in energy sector.
2. The biggest increase of gross output in energy related sector: MSW power, wind, bioenergy, hydro, geothermal
3. Impacts of climate change mitigation action in energy sector: GDP/Capita and Emlpoyment are slightly below
the BaU
4. Enabling condition the achievement of the NDC target in the energy sector:• The existence of energy price policies that are conducive to encourage the Energy Efficiency implementations;• There are regulations regarding the obligations of industries and commercial buildings with high energy
consumption to carry out conservation or energy efficiency efforts with certain targets;• The existence of energy performance standard regulations for household, commercial and industrialequipment. There is a funding system that can be utilized for the development of renewable energy;• The existence of a policy of buying and selling renewable electricity and waste heat recovery, which ispursued by the public (companies & individuals), at an attractive price that encourages the RE Electricitydevelopment;• A review of regulations that can inhibit the use of municipal waste and other waste as an energy source.