Future AIM modeling~Focused on
mid-term national integrated assessment models~

Yuzuru Matsuoka
The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12, March 2005
At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies,305-8506,Tsukuba, JapanFocusingpoints•Next AIM project(FY2005-2007)•Next APEIS-IEA•Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project•Climate Impact Top-down project•Reinforcement of supporting ability tonational integrated assessment considering
global environmental problems•Expansion of global warming problem to morecomprehensive integration of socio-economic
development and environmental problems,such as, WEHAB, lifestyle changes and so on

New model members
for scenario analysis

AIM model family
Enduse/SDB type modules
Energy end-use
Renewable energy
Waste treatment/disposal
Resource recycling

AIM/Topdown

AIM/Material

AIM/enduse models(Energy, Materials)
Bottomup,enduse, SDB
approach

GlobalNational
CGE approach
AIM/Ecosystem[global]

AIM/Ecosystem[country]

Bottomup/accounting
modelsProcess/SDB type modules
Land-use, Population-urbanization
Forestry, Agriculture
Water Resource and Infrastructures
Air Load/emission

AIM/Policy… Simplified model for Longterm assessment of climate change

Macro-economic balanceand Industrial structuredynamics

Demography andHousehold dynamics
Consumption andLifestyle dynamics
Transport demanddynamics
Physical stock and Infrastructure dynamics

Development of mid-term national scale
integrated assessment models
Develop a group of models which supports the following process1.

Creating concrete image of future world and policy targets
such as;• Demographic transition: low fertility, aging society• Lifestyle change: Empowered women, affluent, flexible,insecurity, social capital loosing society• Industrial change: Weightless, hyper-IT andglobalized world• Severe environmental and resource constraints society• National MDGs

2.

Backcasting from the future world and identification ofrequired policy intervention and investments

Demography and Household Model• Describe national/regional
demographic transition considering
marriage and household decisionmaking, family-planning services,
social welfare programs• 10 household classification (memberscomposition×age structure×habitat)• Cohort components with household
transition matrix model ;Required information: life table, birthrate, international/domestic
migration, marriage cohabitation stylechangeJapan’s demographic transition

Change of demographic structure in
Asian countries: Aging society
India’s population pyramid
MaleFemale

Dependency ratio,percentage of children and elderly (%)

100
90

75+

80

70-74
65-69

70

60-64
55-59

60

2050
2000

50-54

50

45-49

JAPAN

40
30
20

40-44

CHINA

35-39

KOREA, REP.

25-29

30-34

20-24

INDIA

10

15-19
10-14

THAILAND

5-9

0

2000

2090

0-4

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100 60000

40000

20000

0

0 0 10,000 20000
20,000 30,000 40000
40,000 50,000 60,000
70,00060000

Household consumption andLifestyle Model• Describe long-term changes of household consumption, its
content, quantities, and environmental load•

1) Becker’s “Household production approach”+ 2) Household
accounting matrix + 3) engineering type bottom-up approachfor commodity production, goods consumption, and wastegeneration• Household production approach: Households is assumed to(be a factory which) combines time and market goods toproduce more basic commodities. One such commodity issleeping, which is created from a bed, house, (pills?) andtime.( Becker, 1965)• Nested Logit type modeling for goods preference andcommodities production, based on household surveys andtime-use surveys

Recent household consumption patterns
in Asian countries; how they change, andwhat is the environmental consequence ?
OthersHotels andCatering
Education

90%
80%

Leisure70%
60%

Communications

50%

Transport

40%

Health30%

Household goods

20%

Housing

10%

India

China

Thailand

2002

1990

2002

1990

2002

1990

Clothing
2002

0%

1990

Consumer expenditure patterns

100%

Japan

Alcoholic+tobacco
FoodFactors and elements of householdproduction

Household Accounting Matrix
Monetary and Material use and supply accounts of households

By household type (one-person, one couple only, one couple with children,others), rich/middle/poor, senior/junior household head, urban/rural

Framework of
the Household
consumption
and Lifestyle
ModelSocial change

policyTaxation
Subsidy

Social welfare
Eco-education Woman’s social
Pensionadvancement
Green ethics
systemHousehold
財を購入
Bads
treatment
service

Purchasing ofService
Substitutableサービス
business
サービス購入サービス業 household
業
sectorservice

Bottom-up typeHouseholdproduction model

Goods purchase

Household benefit
demand and supply

Distributor
商業

Shorterworkinghours

New
servicizing
industry
EconomicchangeBusiness
sectorProducer
製造業
小売業

Low fertility
Aging

効用の効用の最大化
最大化

Institutional
時間の制約
constraints
Time budget予算の制約
constraint
Capital
生存条件
constraints
嗜好
Monetary
budgetconstraint

Disposable
incomechange
Price change
Consumption
habit change

Availability ofdistributed
renewable energy

Energy device
development

Housing / Building sub-module
Trip generation sub-module

Bottom-up type energy/water use, waste
generation and emission module
Generation and Emission of Environmental loads（GHGs, Household garbage, Bulk garbage、Water consumption、Wastewaterproduction, Construction waste, Energy consumption, Air polutants）

IT
popularization
Recyclingtechnology
within household

Developmentof household
technology

Transport demand model60• Methodology: 1) Activitybased approach forpassenger transport, 2)Inter-industry approachfor freight transport

50Passenger
car40

Truck forprivate use

Modal share of passenger transport (%)• Objective: To assess traveland freight transportdemand in drasticallychanging world, andprovides driving forces toAIM/enduse model

Buses

Japan
RailwayCompanies
Privaterailways

30

20

10

Coastwise
vessels0

Domestic
air1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Modal shift in past 50 years in Japan

Passenger transport

Freight transport

Household/Lifestylemodel

AIM/Material’s
industrial/service
production

Trip number generation
projection by trip kind,
locality, age, profession＊Trip kinds: commute (S),homecoming (S), business (S,L),
shopping (S), leisure (S),National
logistics
surveyPerson trip
surveyFramework of Transport demand model

Freight transport
generation projection byproducts

Modal sharing by trip

＊Mode: walk(S), bicycle(S),motorbike(S), car(S,L),bus(S,L), train(S,L), ship(L),air(L)Travel time/distanceallocation
By mode, trip kind
Passenger transport demand(passenger×km)

Modal sharing by freight
Mode:light and heavy truck,train, ship, air

Transport time/distanceallocation
By mode, freight

Freight transport demand(ton×km)

Land allocation andmodal shifting
scenario for future
freight transport

Modal shifting
scenario of future
passenger transport

sightseeing (L)Stock and Infrastructure balance model••••Describe 1) National/regional material balance to assess metals and othermaterial recycling, and 2) Supply mechanism of national social infrastructure
Reinforce the long-term predication ability of AIM/material’s materialbalancing and national development algorithm
Methodology: Bench mark Year method (BY)+ Perpetual Inventory method (PI)
Target materials and stocks: Iron, Copper, Aluminum, Wood,Buildings, Energy
facilities, water and sanitary facilities…
Historical andbenchmark stocks

National wealthsurveyIndustrial
production
statistics

Future projection

Social infrastructuredevelopment scenario

Stocks in
Physical units
Production and
Investment’s
output

AIM/Material

Final disposal

recycling20,000

Furniture
家具・建具

15,00010,0005,000
090,000

1900

1920
1940
西暦（年）

1960

1980

Buildings
建築物

80,00070,00060,00050,000Railway,

鉄道・電力

Electric PowerPort and
港湾・漁港
harborRoad and
道路・橋脚
bridgeOthersその他

40,00030,00020,00010,0000
1880

100,000
90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,000
10,000
0

1900

1920
1940
西暦（年）

1960

1980

Stock of iron, 1000t

Input of iron
1000t/yInput of cement
1000t/y1880

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure
機械設備
HardwareFurniture
その他

1920

1940

1960
西暦（年）

1980

2000

600,000

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure

500,000

機械設備
Hardware400,000

Furniture
家具・建具

300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1880

3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000

1900

1920

1940
（ ）

1960

1980

2000

Buildings
建築物
Railway,
Electric
Power
鉄道・電力
Port and
港湾・漁港
harbor
Road
and
道路・橋脚
bridgeOthersその他

1,000,000
500,000
0
1880

2,000,000

1900

1920

1940
（ ）

1960

1980

2000

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure
機械設備
HardwareFurniture
その他

1,600,000
1,200,000
800,000
400,000
0
1920

1940

Waste wood, 1000t/y

25,000700,000

Waste cement, 1000t/y

2000

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure
機械設備
HardwareWaste iron, 1000t/y

2000

Stockof wood, 1000t
木材のストック量(1000t)

Input of wood
1000t/y30,000Stock of cement, 1000t

Material stock balances in Japan’s society

1960

1980

2000

25,000

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure
機械設備
Hardware
家具・建具
Furniture

20,00015,00010,000
5,000
0
1880

35,00030,00025,00020,00015,000

1900

1920

1940
暦（年）

1960

1980

2000

1940
暦（年）

1960

1980

2000

Buildings
建築物
Railway,
鉄道・電力
Electric PowerPort and
港湾・漁港
harborRoad and
道路・橋脚
bridgeOthersその他

10,000
5,000
0
1880

50,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000
5,000
0

1900

1920

Buildings
建築物
Infra土木構造物
Structure

機械設備
HardwareFurniture
その他

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Macro-economy and industry structurechange model•

Objective: to assess
1) Future economic structural change by technology developments andeconomic policy, and2) Identify required political intervention and public/private investment
schedule with back-casting approach from future normative (target)
world•

One country multi-sector (～20 sectors) econometric model coupled with
1) Intervention/investment optimization module,
2) Aggregated environmental load emission,and interfaces for
1) Changes of input-output coefficients by technology development,
2) Final consumption changes projected by the household life-stylemodel

Back-casting from future target world by the macroeconomy and industry structure dynamics model

Mitigation
Technology
development

Policyintervention andInvestment

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

Back-casting
Checkingyear(2025)

Checkingyear(2015)2020

Long-term target year

Calculation of requiredintervention policy andintervention by dynamic
optimization multi-sector
model

Required intervention

Required2000

Reference
futureworld

Forecasting

Release ofAIM result

Environmental pressure

Technology development,socio-economic change
projected by historicallycalibrated multi-sector
econometric model

2050

Normative
target world

Modeling activities in FY.2005
From the view point of Asian-Pacific environment in the 21st century;
1. Still we are interested in the following three spatial scales and three temporal scale
1) Global/National/Sub-national,
2) 2020 /2050/after 2100
2.

However, we will put more attention on mid-term national scale integrated assessment models,

3.

from the view points of creating 1) Low carbon socio-economy, 2) Resilient society to climatechange, 3) Eco-efficient technological and institutional system.

4.

We continue to maintain;
AIM/Enduse, AIM/Impact[Process], AIM/Material

5.

Finish preparing operational versions ofSDB, AIM/CGE[global], AIM/Enduse[Global], AIM/Policy, AIM/Ecosystem[country]

6.

Start to develop auxiliary models in order to intensify expressive power of future world andbackcasting process of scenario approache.g.
Macro-economic balance and Industrial structure dynamics
Demography and household dynamics
Consumption and Lifestyle dynamics
Transport demand dynamics
Physical stock and infra-structure dynamics