AIM Training Workshop 2008
Organized by NIES, October 2008, Tsukuba, Japan

Sustainable Low Carbon Society
Scenarios and Modeling

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

AGENDA

Visions and Strategies: Japan and India



What Drives Emissions?



Alternate Strategies to Low Carbon Transition

Emissions Reduction through Energy Supply Technologies

Emissions Reduction Actions aligned to Development Choices• Low
L
CarbonC bSociety:
S i t Integration,
I tti
Adaptation
Ad t tiandd Cp-benefits
C b
fit


Conclusions: Strategies for Low Carbon Transition

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingVisions and Strategies:
Japan and India

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingSlide: Courtesy Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES, Tsukuba, JapanAs for LCS visions,visions we prepared two
different but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon”
Doraemon

Vision B “Satsuki
Satsuki and Mei
Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F.
Fujio. The series is about arobotic cat named Doraemon,
who travels back in time fromthe 22nd century. He has apocket, which connects to thefourth dimension and acts likea wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005
World Expo. Satsuki and Mei
are daughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived
an oldld househin
i rurall Japan,Jnear which many curious andmagical creatures inhabited.

Slide: Courtesy Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Utilizing solar power

LCS house in
2050 in Japan

Eco-life education

Photovoltaic

10-20% energy
red ction(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) demand reduction
34-69MWand develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

rooftopp
gardeningHigh efficiency
lighting

Solar heating【eg LED lighting】

Diffusion rate: 20-60%

Reduce 1/2
energy demand
Share 100%

（currently 8%）

Monitoring system

High-insulationequipped with appliances

Reduce 60% warming
energy demand,
share 100%

Super highefficiency air
conditioner

Fuel cell

COP (coefficients ofperformance=8),
share 100%

Stand-by energy
reduction
ReduceRd
1/3 energy
demand,share 100%

Heat-pumpp p heatinggGood information foreconomy and environment
makes people’s behavior
low-carbon

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modelingshare 0-20%
0 20%

COP＝5
share 30-70%

High
g e
efficiency
c e cy app
appliances
a ces
reduce energy demand andsupport comfortable and safe lifestyle 5

India: Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
Aligning climate policies and actions with:• MDGs / National development targets• Agreed goals under extant international agreements• Developingp g resilience to Vulnerabilities and Adapting
p g to changing
g g Climate Parameters
MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change
MDG andd globall b l targetstt

I di ’ N
India’s
Nationaltil planltargetstt

I t fInterfacewith
ith Cli
Climatet Ch
ChangeGoal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty andhunger• Double the per capita income by 2012

• Higher income enhances access toservices, food, fuel, information, anenhances mitigative and adaptive
capacity

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who suffer fromhunger• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Contain population growth to 16.2%
between 2001-2011

G l 7: Ensure environmental
Goalilsustainability• Increase in
i forestfcover to 25%
2 % byb 2007200 andd
33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

Targets: Integrate SD principles in country
policies/ programs to reverse loss ofenvironmental resources• Sustained access to potable drinking waterto all villages by 2007

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion ofpeople without sustainable access to safe
drinking water• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling• Higher climate variability would
enhance risks to meet the goal
• Enhancedhd sinki k capacity,i reducedd d
GHG and local emissions; lower
fossil imports; reduced pressure onland, resources and ecosystems• Higher adaptive capacity to fromenhanced supply of water, health &education in rural areasImplementing the Roadmap: Conjoint Market for CO2 & SO2
Year: 2000

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Year: 2030

Bio-diesel: Multiple Dividends and Risks
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

Jatropha Plantation in India• Rural Employment / Farm Income (from waste lands): :Large scale employment potential in Jatropha plantation, seed collectionand extraction• Energy Security
Imported fossil oil is replaced• Environment
Neutral carbon emissions, Rehabilitates waste land

• Water and Food Security
Land and energy crop choices are vital to avoid conflicts with othersustainability goals

Rural Employment
Oil ExtractionOt act o Planta tSustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingWhat drives Emissions?

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingDemographic Drivers
Year: 2000

Population (Million)

1600

1449

400

0

555
358

1950

2.15%

1.02%

1.67%

G
Growthth RateR t

FemaleM ale

18-62 Yrs

800

FemaleMale

15 - 660 years

849

0.47%

Age

1200

1593

Ag
ge

1183

Pop: 1021 Million

2.22%

1970

1990

2010

2030

80
80

2050

60

40
40

20
20

Labor Force (Million)

Year: 2050

1000

0

20
20

4040

8080

Pop: 1593 Million

915
795

800

0.70%

FemaleMale
M ale

Growth Rate
210

2.74%

18-62 Y
Yrs

2.54%
360

Age
e

Age

600

400

Female1.46%
15 - 60 y
years

595

200

6060

Pop
ulatio n ( million)Population(Million)

133
2.30%
80
80

0
1950

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

60
60

40
40

20
00
20
40
20
40
0
20
Population (Million)
P opulat ion (million)

60
60

8080

Drivers of Economic Growth

Human Capital
⎯
⎯
⎯



R&D
⎯
⎯
⎯



⎯

Infrastructures
Learning, transfers, deployment

Savings Rate
37

Behavioral Changes
High Savings Rate
Changing Lifestyles

30⎯

Governance⎯⎯⎯Institutions
Laws
Policies

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

??

40
35

⎯



Increasing Government/ Private Expenditure
International Knowledge Flows
R&D Collaborations

Technologygy⎯High Labor Supply
Increasing Education
Migration (intra & inter county)

35.0
33.
0

32

24.6

25

22.8
20.6

20
15
10
5
0

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Base Scenario GDP
GDP

10000

20

US $/person

Base Year 2005=1
B
1

Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3%
Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%

15

10

8000
6000
4000
2000

5

0
2005

Per Capita Income

12000

25

0
2020

2035

2050

2000

2010

2020

Base Case Assumptions: Summary
1 GDP
1.
• Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50• 2050 Economy: 24 times larger than 2005

2. Population• 2000: 1021 Million• 2050: 1593 Million

3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2)
4. Radiative Forcing: 4.7 W/m2
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

2030

2040

2050

Alternate Strategies to
Low Carbon Transition

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingIntegrated Modeling Framework
Integrated Modelling Framework
DATABASES
Socio-Economic,
Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

ANSWER-MARKAL
Model

AIM SNAPSHOT Model

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

AIM S trategic Database
D(SDB)

End Use Demaand
Model

AIM CGE ModelEnergy and Carbon: Base Case
Assumptions
From 2005-2050:
Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%
A
AnnuallP
Populationl ti Growth:G
th 0.9%
0 9%

3,000

M toe

2,500
2,000

Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Commercial Biomass
Non Com Biomass

8,000

Energy

6,000

1,500
1,000
500
0
2005

Carbon Emissions

7,000

Million Ton C
CO2

3,500

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005
Economy 23 times
P
Populationl ti 1.56
1 56 times
ti

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0
2000 20052010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity
Annual Improvement From 2005-2050:
Energy Intensity: 3.14
3 14 (%)
Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%)
Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%)
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Ratios: 2050 over 2005
Energy Intensity: 0.249
0 249
Carbon Intensity: 0.257
Decarbonization of Energy: -3.1 (%)

Investment in Energy: Base Case
Energy Investments (2010-2030)
600

Investment (US $ Billion)

175

260

335

404
17

400
14

83

71

11
51

200

7
42

Share of Energy Investments(2010-2030)

302

251
197
127

$ 1173 billion

Oil &$ 1173 billion

Oil Gas
&
Gas
21%
21%

0
2010-152015-20
Coal

2020-25
Oil & Gas

2025-30
Power

Coal
Coal
4%4%

Power

Power
75%
75%

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Alternate Emissions
R d ti St
Reduction
Strategiest iSustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Alternate Development Visions
Assumptions
1 Global Stabilization Target Assumption:1.
• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration (OR)• 3.4
3 4 W/m2 (OR)• @ 3o centigrade temperature increase

2 Two Development Pathways for India:
2.
(with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)

1. Vision 1: Conventional Developmentppathp2. Vision 2: ‘Sustainability’ scenario

What path shall best deliver national development
goals while fulfillinggg Climate Commitments?
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Strategies for Emissions Reduction
Alternate Pathways to Emissions Reduction
Achieving Stabilization of GHG Concentration by:
1. Climate Centric Actions at the Margin
g of the Conventional
Development Path
Policies: Global Carbon Price over Conventional Development Path

2. Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development
Actions
Policies: Sustainable Development Path + Stabilization

What path shall best deliver national development
goals while fulfilling international commitments?

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingObjectives and Interventions
 Economic Development (Quantity and Quality of Growth) Enhance Investment in climate actions••

Mitigation
Adaptation

 Introduce Climate change Technologies••

R&D/ IPR
Technology transfer

 Mitigate Climate change Risks••

Adaptation costs
Climate Goals (e.g. Stabilization @ 450 ppmv CO2e or 2O C) Equity/ Fairness of global climate regime
 Efficient Mechanisms/ Instruments Direct (Climate) vs.
Indirect (Development)• MarketM k t vs. CC + N
Non-Market
M k t
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Emissions Reduction Strategy - 1
7,000
OthersDevice Efficiency

6,000

Millionn Ton CO2

Renewable Energy

5,000Electricity (Fuel Switch)

4,000
CCS

3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
Carbon Tax$/tCO2

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

7

22

40

67

100

Emissions Reduction with Supply-side technologies• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push
• Top-down/Supply-side
Top down/Supply side actions

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Emissions Reduction Strategy - 2
7,000
OthersCCS
Transport Mode

6,000

U b Planning
Urban
Pl
i
Consumption
Recycling
Material Substitutions
Appliance Efficiency

Million Ton CO2

5,000

4,000

Renewable Energygy
Building

3,000Electricity (Fuel Switch)

2,000

1,000

0
2000

2005

2010

2015 20202025 2030

2035

2040

2045 2050

Emissions reduction with Demand-side Technologies• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side technology pull
• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingEnergy Technology Mix in 2050
1,200
Base Case

1,000

Conventional Dev. + Tax
Sustainability

Mto
oe

800
600
400
200

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Total Energy Demand

Share of Renewable

Base
C+T
Sust.

Base
C+T
Sust.

3004 Mtoe
2945 Mtoe
2004 Mtoe

24 %
34 %
47 %

Emissions Reduction throughEnergy Supply Technologies((‘Deep
Deep Dive Technologies)

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Carbon Capture and Storage
Technology Cooperation Tasks• Short-term: Geological Mapping, Pilot Investment• Medium-term:Medi m term Technology
Technolog and Kno
Knowledge
ledge transfer• Long-term: Development of National Industry, Costs

Policy Instruments for Cooperation• Government Agreements: UNFCCC, APP, Bilateral• Carbon Price• Energy Security/ Local Emissions

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingNuclear Technology
Technology Cooperation Tasks• Technology Supply (e.g. Gen III, Gen IV)• FuelF l AccessA

Policy Instruments for Cooperation• GovernmentGt Initiative/
I iti ti / Agreements
At• International Supervision: e.g. IAEA
gy Mix (Targets):( g ) Energy
gy Securityy• National Energy

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Wind PowerTechnology Cooperation Tasks• Wind Potential Mapping• Turbine Technology Transfer• Private-Private Technology Collaboration• National Industry / Scale Economy• Technology Export

Policy Instruments for Cooperation• National
N til Subsidies
S b idi• Renewable Targets / Commitments• Carbon Price

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingBio-Energy
Technology Cooperation Tasks• Choice of Biomass and Production Methods• Private-Private Technology Collaboration• National Industry / Scale Economy

Policy Instruments for Cooperation• Fuel-Mix Norms• RenewableR
bl Energy
E
Targets
Tt• Energy Security / Local Co-benefits• Food Securityy ((Barrier))

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Emissions Reduction Actionsaligned to Development Choices

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingDemand Reduction & Substitution
700

1000

Steel

Steel

600

Cement400

Demand (MMillion Ton)

DemandMillion
Demand (M(MMillion Ton)
Ton)

800
500
Conventional
Development
300
200
Sustainable
100
0
2000
2000

Society
2010
2010

2020
2020

2030
2030

2040
2040

Conventional
Development

400
Sustainable
Society

200

0
2000

2050
2050

2010

2020

3000

Paper

40

600

Demand (Trilllion Lumen hrs)

Demand ((Million Ton)

25
Conventional
20

Development

15
10
Sustainable
5
0
2000

Society
2010

2020

2030

2040

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

2050

2040

2050

Lighting

35
30

2030

2000
Conventional
Development
Sustainable

1000

Society

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Urban Design and Climate• Land-use Planning• Infrastructures• Building Choices• Service Networks

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingTransport Vehicles & Mitigation
Rush Hour Traffic in India

Rising Incomes and Small Cars

Tata Nano: $2500

QQ: $4000

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingTransport Modal Shift Technologies
Bus Rapid Transport System
Technologies for Train Corridors

Public Transport: Metro Rail

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingTransport: Coal by Wire

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingCo-benefits of Regional Co-operation
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

Co-benefits of SouthCoSouth-Asia
Integrated Energy
Energy--Water Market
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative$ Billion% GDP

from 2010 to 2030
Energy60 Exa Joule

321

0.87

CO2 Equiv.

5.1 Billion Ton

28

0.08

SO2

50 Million Ton

10

0.03

359

0.98

Total
Uzbekistan Tajikistan
Turkmenistan!.

Afghanistan
!.

Iran

China

Delaram!.

Kandhar!.

NangalLudhiana

QuettaPakistan!.

South-Pars!.

Bandar-e-Abbas

Bahrain
Qatar!.

Iranshahar!.

Saudi Arabia
Oman

LegendYemen

Somalia¨!.

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

BathindaSangrur Ambala
MultanSonipat
Delhi
Faridabad

Khuzdar!.

United Arab Emirates

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

Herat

Bareilly

Nepal
BhutanShahjahanpur
Auraiya Kanpur
GwaliorJagdishpuri
Jhansi
Kota
VijaypurGuna

Karachi

Mahesana
UjjainKalol
JhabuaNadiad Anand
RajkotChotila Bharuch
OlpadSuratÑºÑ
Valsadº Dadra

DispurPatna• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

Gaya

Bangladesh
India

Kolkata

M
Myanmar(Burma)(B)
LaosPanvelPune

Important Places
Vishakhapattnam
Solapur
ChiptunGuhagar
Ratnagiri
KokinadaÑ
Existing Gas Pipelines
Vijaywadaº¨
Gas Pipelines under construction
Gadag
NelloreProposed Gas Pipelines
PalmanerChennai
MangaloreHassan
Existing LNG terminals
ChittoorF
Bangalore
Proposed LNG terminals
Coimbatore
Tiruchchirappalli
Existing Gas Basin
Kochi
FKayankulamTutikorin
Proposed Gas Basin

Thailand• Lower energy prices would enhancecompetitivenesscopet t e ess oof regionaleg o a industries
dust es(MDG1)

Sri Lanka
Maldives• Flood control (MDG1&7)

Indonesia

Malaysia

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingSustainability and
Low Carbon Society

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingSustainable Low Carbon Society: Concept
Moving onto the Efficient Frontier

Expanding the Frontier

Conventional Economic Efficiency View

Sustainability View of Efficiency

Climate Quality

Sustainability
Frontier

Economic/soccial Indicator
E

Sustainable Develo
opment Goalss

Economic/sociial IndicatorE

Climate Goal

Socio-Economic Goals
Technology & Institutional
Innovations; Cooperation, Cobenefits, Avoiding lock-ins

Climate Quality

Expanding ‘development and climate’ frontier through:• Innovations (technology, institutions)• International and regionalgcooperationp• Targeted technology and investment flows• Aligning stakeholder interests• Focusingg on inputs
p (&( not onlyy outputs)
p )• Long-term perspective to avoid lock-ins
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingReinforcing the Income Effect
Emissions and Income
10000

14

SO2 Emissions in BAU

12

10
6000
8

CO2 Emissions in BAU
6

4000

4
2000

LCS CO2 Emissions

2

0

0
100

200

400

800

GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

1600

2400

SO2 E
Emissions (MMillion TSO2
2)

CO2 E
Emissions (Million TCO2
2)

8000

Co-benefits of Low Carbon Transition
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions
14
Base Case
12

Conventional Path +High Carbon PriceMillion tSO2
M
2

10

8

6

Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax

4

2
0
2000

2010

2020

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

2030

2040

2050

Transition at Low Carbon Price
CO2 Price
120

Price
e CO2 (USS $/tCO2)100

80

Conventional
Society

60

40
Sustainable Society
20
Base Case
0
2010

2020

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

2030

2040

2050

Low Carbon Society:yIntegration, Adaptation and Cp-benefits

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingIntegration with Demographics
World Population
UNLR HIGH: 36 Billion by 2300

20000

Million

15000

UNLR LOWUNLR MEDIUMUNLR 0-Growth
UNLR HIGH
History
IIASA "most likely"
GGI A2r
GGI B2GGI B1

10000

5000

0
1700

1800

1900

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

2000

2100

2200

2300

Integration with Water Strategies(A) Water stress index in 2000

(B1) Water stress index in 2100
(Unsustainable society scenario)“Water stress index” is defined as the ratio between water
withdrawal and renewable water resource in a river basin(figure’s case), region, country or other boundaries. High value
implies the higher risk of water shortage.

1 5 10
0

20

40

60

～
80 ～
100
(%)

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling(B2) Water stress index in 2100
(Sustainable society scenario)

Sustainable Low Carbon Development
Aim

Interventions

Drivers

Targetsg

TechnologicalInnovations

Social/Institutional
Management

Low
CarbonSociety

National
Socio economic
Socio-economic
Objectives
and Targets

Aligning Markets
Co-benefits

Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Long-term Vision
Avoid Lock-ins

Sustainability

Modify Preferences

Back-castingBackcasting
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

GlobalClimate Change
Objectives
and Targets

Delivering Co-Benefits
Mitigation Choices deliver
multiple dividends• In developing countries,
significant
gopportunities
pp
exist forgaining co-benefits• Mitigation Assessment should
consider all costs and benefits“For
For developing countries
countries, the‘good news’ is that theirenvironment and natural
resources policies are often sobad that there are reforms
which would be both good forthe economy and good for theenvironment ”
environment.
Joseph Stiglitz
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Utility Function

Conclusions
Strategies for Low Carbon Transition

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Conclusions: Strategies to gain Co-benefits
Align Development and Climate Actions• Mainstream Climate Actions¾

Mainstreaming climate action in development strategies yield multiple
co-benefits• Promote Actions suiting sustainable andclimate-friendly
y developmentpp
path‘Reduce, Reuse and Recycle (3R)’¾ Infrastructure technologies that act as backbone for low carbon
activities (e(e.g.
g railway and information networks)¾ Low carbon substitutes (e.g. IT for transport)¾• Use Combination of Direct and Indirect Policies
Regional Cooperation to diversify energy mix¾ Energy Intensity Targets¾ Carbon Price¾

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Conclusions: National Technology Strategy
Develop National Technology Strategy• Technology RD&D
Public Funding (e.g. Nuclear)¾ Private Investment (e.g. Bio-diesel, Wind)¾ Technology
T h lMMandatesd t¾ Intellectual Property Rights¾• Technology
T h lTransferTf
Pilot Projects (e.g. Carbon Capture and Storage)¾ Technology Adaptation and Deployment¾ Collaborations to create National Industry and Market (e.g. Fuel-efficient cars)¾• Technology Export
Export of Equipments (e.g. Wind Power)¾ Direct investment/ Joint venture in host country¾ ExportEt off Technology
T h l
R&D S
Servicesi¾

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Conclusions: Link with Global Actions
Link Global and National Strategies• Participate in Global Innovations¾

Global R&D Projects (e.g. ‘Deep Dive’ Technologies, ITER)

DevelopDl N
NationaltilR
Registryi t¾ National Carbon Exchange (e.g. with commodities exchange)¾• Prepare to Participate in Carbon Market
Capacity building in government and industry¾ National Registry¾ National Carbon Exchange (e.g. with commodities exchange)¾• Align
Ali with
ith GlGlobalb l Policies
P li iGlobal Carbon Finance / Trading¾ Global Trade Regime¾

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling

Conclusions: LCS through Sustainability• Changing Behavior and Technology RD&D/ Transfer are key to LCS transition• Moving from Margin to Mainstream– Development vision matters to LCS transition– Managing climate change at the margin is costly,
costly risky,
risky and unsustainable• Post-Kyoto needs a ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’:– Negotiations have followed ‘burden
burden sharing’sharing metaphor, which poses climate stabilization as ahigh cost and zero-sum game and this has caused conflicts– Sustainable development delivers co-benefits and reduces costs of stabilizing climate.
– Netting co-benefits is a positive-sum game that would induce co-operation and help:• developed countries to transit to low carbon trajectories at lower costs &• developing countries to pursue economic development with lower climate barriers– Even sustainable Low Carbon Societies shall need exclusive climate-centric actions forstabilization and adaptation, but their costs and risks shall be much lower

Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and ModelingThank you
Sustainable Low Carbon Society Scenarios and Modeling