The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Activities of APEIS IEA
in FY 2004

Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Integrated EnvironmentalAssessment (IEA)
AIM Model Development for APEISStrategic database

AIM/ Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/ Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology
selection model ofenergy use andemissions atcountry and locallevel

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem models,
Sunshine
including a vegetation
dynamics model, a waterLand use
Water resource
resource model, an
Crop
agricultural productivity Socio-economicindicator
Productivity
model and a health impactImpact on food demandmodel

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Institution, Management,
Technology, Adaptation
Database
Scenario
Assessment

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
AIM/End -use

AIM Family

A bottom-up
Country technology
Based&Technology
land use model
for
Model
Asia-Pacific region

Consumer
Environment FundWastes

An environmentOne
country CGE model
economywith
CO2interacted
and material
model withmaterialbalance,interface
withbalance and recycling
environmental
process modules
technology
modelRecycle

AIM/Material

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

EnvironmentalBurden

Environmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
AIM/Top -down
A general-equilibrium-type
World Economic
Model model
world economic

AIM/Trend

Futureeconomic
economic trend
trend

Model Base

Futureenvironmental
environmental trend
trend

Korea
Developed as a
ChinacommunicationIndia
platform in order
to construct
ThailandJapan
Asia --pacificregional environmental
outlook supported withmulti --regional environment -economic CGE model

Strategy
Option BaseIndex Base

Main objectives in FY2004••••

Revising the AIM/Emission and AIM/Material model
to estimate the economic impacts of environmental
policies
Revising the AIM/Ecosystem model to analyze thestrategies for sustainable development
Developing strategic database to support theassessment of innovation strategies
Holding training workshop to support the modelingactivities in China, India, Korea and Thailand

Environmental Innovation Strategies & Strategic Database
Environmental Innovation Strategies
A: Activation ofNew
Environmental
Markets

B: Research andDevelopmentof New
Environmental
Technologies

C: Introduction ofNational Land
Conservation
Strategies

D: Developmentof New
Environmental
Infrastructures

E: Establishmentof NewInternationalCooperation
SystemAIM Models

AIM/Material etc.

Environmental Innovation Options = Technology, Infrastructure, Institution, Management Options

SDB Engine(SDBE)
Energy system

Water system

Waste system
Assessment section = Total flow systemfrom upstream to down stream

Industry

Transportation

Residential

Agriculture

Assessment section = Actors

Strategic Database (SDB)

Drivers / Countermeasure Scenario

Development of Strategic Database
Bicycle with rider
induced
Bio-fuelcar

Hybridengine car

Battery operated
motor cycle

Traffic
signalmanagement

BicycleLane

Public Trns.
management

Diagram ofenvironmental options

Battery-operated
cycle-rickshaws
Battery operated pollution
free Motor Cycle

Eco-driving
LicenseIllustration withenvironmental options

Training Workshop on
AIM/Material model
3500

CO2 emissions in India

3000

High GrowthReference

CO 2 (Mt)

2500

Energy Eff.

2000

Low Growth

1500
1000
500
0
2000

7000
6000

30

CO2 emissions in China

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Index (1985=1)

25

5000

CO2 emissions in Thailand
Past

Model results

Mt-CO220

4000
15

3000

GDP

2000

BAU
INV
INV+CAP
EINV+CAP

1000
2000

2004

CO2 emissions

501997

Expected GDP

102008

2012

2016

2020

01985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

20252030

Thank you !

Integrated Environmental Assessment Sub-project
http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS/iea/index.html
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/apeis/