14th AIM International Workshop
14th – 16th February, 2009
NIES, Tsukuba, JAPANGakuji KURATA
Kyoto University1

Co-benefit is one of the most important factors toimplement LCS policies to the developing countries.
 Target of the co-benefits:
Air Quality / Water Quality / Human Health /poverty etc.
 Especially, air pollution issue is directly connected tothe use of primary energy (Coal / Oil / Biomass ).
 GAINS (IIASA) is one of the powerful tool to asses
the co-benefit related to air pollution.
 However, we would like to develop own co-benefitsanalysis tool working within AIM framework.
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It is necessary to estimate the Co-Benefit of the LCS
policy to the air pollution issue as accurate as possible.

It is required to estimate health impact, ecologicalimpact and agricultural impact of air pollution.
Scale is different
Climate Change(GHG emission)

Air Pollutant(SOx, NOx, SPM, VOC …)•Global scale•Long lifetime•Local Scale•Short Lifetime

Co-benefit is not proportion to the reduction of CO2….
Reduce Dirty CO2 or Clean CO2
Reduce Urban CO2 or Rural CO23

Downscaling ofClimate ChangeScenario

Downscaling ofEmission inventory

GCM 
Regional Climate Model

Country-level emission
 Mesh map• Evaluate regional impact ofclimate change(Temperature/Precipitation)• Drive the air quality model
under the climate changescenario• To use as an input data for
air quality modeling.
• (……….)
National Level

Mesh Map4



Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling
Create a statistical function between GCM output
and local surface variables
Weather typing
Weather generation
Regression methodRegional Climate Modeling5

AOGCM .. MIROC 3.2 (High resolution version)Developed by Univ. of Tokyo / NIES / Frontier Res. Cent. for Global Change

Atmosphere: 1.1°x 1.1° 59 layers Top=40kmOcean: 0.2°x 0.3° 47 layers
SRES A1B scenarioRegional Climate Model
WRF / MM5 / NCAR RegCM / RAMS / RCM20….

Pennsylvania State Univ. / NCAR
Mesoscale nun-hydrostatic meteorological model• Cumulus Parameterization• PBL Schemes• Cloud Microphysics Schemes• Radiation schemes.
• Land Surface / Soil Schemes• One-way / Two-way nesting6

Case-Study to make a Regional Climate Scenario in Danang, Vietnam.
Domain 1Domain 2GCM
(MIROC3.2 Hires A1B)
Domain 32030 – 2039
every 6 houru, v, RH, T, Tg, SST, P…..

110 km x 110km

45 km x 45km

88 x 73

15 km x 15km

61x 615 km x 5 km

61 x 61( IPCC, 2007)
To check the model consistency.
SRES A1B
2080-2099[mm/year]( IPCC, 2007)

SRES A1B
2080-2099[mm/year]

9MIROC3.2 Hires (A1B) –MM5 Domain3
Temperature at 03z January 1st – December 31st , 2030

10

MIROC3.2 Hires (A1B) –MM5 Domain3
Daily Rain fall (mm) January 1st – December 31st , 2030

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Downscaling ofEmission Inventories
Country-level emission is mainly used for the policy
making for reduction of GHG.

Country-level

However, it is too coarse to be used for air quality
modeling. Because, the spatial scale of air
pollution problem is much smaller.
Local Administration LevelTwo step downscaling

National level Local Administration level Mesh level

Visualization by GIS tool
Air Quality ModelingImpact estimation

Mesh Map12

Outline of the Downscaling of Emission inventories
Air Pollutant Emission (Country-level / each Sector )Industry

DomesticTransportation

Power
Generation

Boundary(polygon)Data
Local administrationlevel emission data

Allocation index for local
administrative districtlevel (Population, GRDP)

Population MeshLand use MeshEmission Mesh Data

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The Downscaling system was developed to use
original estimation of country-level air
pollutant emission. (not yet implemented)
 For current calculation, country-level emission
from EDGAR Fast Track 3.2 (Olivier et al.,
2005)



[CO2 、 CH4、N2O、HFC、SF6、CO 、 NOｘ、NMVOC、 SO2]
[Biomass fuel, fossil fuel, industrial process,Agriculture]

1415Model is prepared to use proper index for each sector/ each country.
Industry： Energy consumption、 Added values of secondary
manufacturing Transportation: Total travel distance for each type of veicleCurrently, we use following index for allocation.

Only for Japan and China, we used added-value of
secondary industries as
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2009/3/17

Population(person)100000000-1800000000
50000000-100000000
10000000-50000000
5000000-10000000
1000000-5000000
100000-1000000
50000-100000
10000-50000
5000-10000
0-50002009/3/17

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Unit：：Kton/mesh/year18

NOx emission(30″×″×30″″× ″)Large part of NOx emission isallocate along the road network.
NOx Emission(Kton/mesh/year)

2009/3/17

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Most part of SO2 emission is allocatednear the urban area.

SO2 Emission(Kton/mesh/year)
2009/3/17

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NOx emission(30″×″×30″″× ″)

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LCS
LCS policies
policies
Emission inventory(Mesh data)

Emission
Emission
Inventory
Inventory(Regional)(Regional)Co-benefit
Co-benefit
AnalysisAnalysis

Death
Death
Disease
DiseaseHealthHealthImpactImpactDownscaling
Downscaling
Calculated
CalculatedConcentration
Concentration

ArcGISArcGISTimeTimevariation
variation(Annual,(Annual,Daily)
Daily)

Emission
Emission
Mesh
Meshdata
data

Boundary
Boundary
Condition
Condition

CMAQ
CMAQ
GCM
GCM
OutputOutputLanduseLanduseTerrainTerrain

MM5
MM5Meteo.
Meteo.
Field
Field

Meteorological
Model

ImpactAssessment

ChemicalTransport
Model

Outline oftheframework(Change from Yanagi, 2008)

Downscaling technique is essential to asses a co-benefit
between LCS policies and air pollution reduction.
 We developed the downscaling system of Climate
scenario which can be used to derive air quality model.
 We also developed the downscaling system of emission
inventory to use as an input of air quality modeling.

Complete the development of the co-benefit
analysis system.
 Some air pollution impact is due to in-door orvery small scale (road-side). CMAQ cannot treatsuch a small scale. We need additional model toestimate such a small scale effect.
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