Integrated assessment model as key element oflow carbon development policy- How Asia can collaborate in sharing this knowledge?

Shuzo Nishioka (LCS-Rnet)
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Chair: Sub-committee on climate policy after 201311

How ?

How ?

22

Challenge••

Science: Low carbon development: unavoidable future for stable climate
International decision: Urgent request from global society:
Copenhagen/Cancun/Durban

・ Asia: High emission share/rapid growth & urbanization/high investment rate
⇒Avoid lock-in to high carbon path・ Broad scientific knowledge needed to be integrated into LCD policy⇒ Inter-disciplinary collaboration domesticallyIntegrated assessment model: good tool for integration
・ Common knowledge, measures practice can be shared among countries,
although diversified in situation & development stages⇒ ・Bridging modeling and policy making toward LCS・LCS knowledge sharing among Asian countries

3Applying IAM into real policy process: road map to 2050

An 80% emission reduction by 2050 will create a largely different society from today. It will be criticalto strategically move forward under mid-term 2020 and 2030 targets that take into account thiseventual 80% reduction.
1000

GDP and Greenhouse Gases

16Coupling ⇒ Decoupling800

温室効果ガス
GHG

1412600▲15%(Compared to1990 level)（90年比）▲20%（90年比）(Compared to1990 level)▲25%（90年比）(Compared to 1990 level)

▲15%
▲20%
▲25%

10GDP

86

Onset ofFinancial Crises

Oil Crisis

42

Japan’s Asset-Inflated
Rapid Economic Bubble Economy
GrowthCO20400200

日本の実質GDP（兆円）
Real GDP (trillion yen)Japan’s

18▲80%80% Reduction(Compared to the1990s)（90年比）

02050

20402030

2020

2010

2000

19901980

1970

1960

1950

1930

1920

1910

1900

(100 years old) （80歳）（60歳）（40歳）(0 years old)
(80 years old) (60 years old) (40 years old) （20歳）(20 years old) （0歳）
（100歳）

1940

日本のCO2・温室効果ガス排出量
Japan’s CO2 and GHG Emissions
tons of CO2 equivalent)(100 million（億トンCO2eq）201) Parenthesis indicates the age of which persons born in each respective year will be in the year 2050
1) （ ）内の年齢は、各年に生まれた人が2050年を迎えたときの年齢
2) Future GDP values are assumed values based on scenarios A and B from the NIES Low Carbon 42) GDPの将来値は国立環境研究所
脱温暖化2050プロジェクト A・Bシナリオの想定値
SocietyResearch Project 2050

4

Applying IAM into real policy process: road map to 2050

Reviews were held from April to December 2010 involving over 100 experts & specialists from a wide range of fields
Mid- and Long-term Roadmap Subcommittee, Global Environmental Committee, Central Environmental Council

Working Groups for the Mid- and Long-term Roadmap for Global Warming Countermeasures
Reviews conducted from a specialist and technological standpoint concerning policies and measures to achieve midand long-term targets(101 members / 49 sessions)

Yoshihiro Fujii (Chair)(Sophia Univ.)

Shuzo Murakami (Chair)(Building Research Institute)[Greenhouse Gases]

Yasuhiro Daisho (Chair)(Waseda Univ.)

Energy Supply

Tadashi Otsuka (Chair)(Waseda Univ.)[Technology][Society / The Economy]
Itaru Yasui (Chair)(National Institute of Technologyand Evaluation)
Junko Edahiro (Chair)(Japan for Sustainability)[People]Tetsuo Yai (Chair)(Tokyo Institute of Technology)
55

Applying IAM into real policy process: road map to 2050

CO2 emissions were estimated based on the following two types of assumed macro framework cases.
Assumes the same macro framework for all CO2 reduction targets.
: Estimates energy efficiency improvement and additional investment basedon the CO2 reduction target with AIM/Enduse[Japan], and then input this data into AIM/CGE[Japan] toestimate changes in activities for each sector. These results are then used in AIM/Enduse[Japan] to conduct a
re-estimate.

Macro framework in a society where carbon
is priced by based on economic model
calculations
Macro Framework

Calculate consistentmacro-economical costand activities following
the reduction target

Discussion results of each WG

Selection of technology
based on the reductiontarget

Energy Efficiency,
Additional investment

Macro Framework
Macro framework fromoutside of the model

66Applying IAM into real policy process: road map to 2050

In the case of a variable macro framework, in which the outlook on the amount of activities such as
production volume is not fixed, as the target becomes more stringent (which means an increase in carbon
price), the amount of activities in each industry will change by several percent. Subsequently, theemissions of this countermeasure case are expected to decrease by another 1% to 2%. However, insuch a case, the pace of change in social structure will speed up, and proper consideration should begiven to the resulting friction of such changes.
If the industrial structure is not stabilized,
the amount of activities will change inaccordance with enhanced
countermeasures, and CO2 emissions
will further decrease by 1-2%
177
78
228

176
68
194

262

218

15%
162
53

179
166

185

444

437

25%

159

152
50
171

146

16%

149
42

53
176

163
124

163

21%
148
49
168
142

27%

Emissions Reduction compared
1990年比削減量
to 1990
非エネルギー部門
Non-Energy
Sector145
40159

エネルギー転換部門
EnergySector
運輸部門Transportation
Sector

120119

107

90

119

10689397392

380392385368

Commercial Sector
業務部門
家庭部門
Residential
Sector

2020年
2020

2020
Framework Fixed
20年Macro
マクロフレーム固定

▲25%

▲20%

▲15%

▲25%

Industrial Sector
産業部門
▲15%

0165

Reference参照

500

19%

▲20%

1,000

Fixed
技術固定
Technologies

GHG Emissions
GHG排出量（百万tCO2eq）(Million Tons of CO2 Equivalent)

1,500

2020
Macro
Framework Variable
20年
マクロフレーム変動

Benchmark Year Emissions
基準年排出量77

Applying IAM into real policy process: road map to 2050

Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty inimplementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need tocreate new markets on par with this spending.

Additional Investment Amount (Trillion Yen / Year)[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target]
129.7

108
6

7.8

0.5
0.9

1.3

1.0

0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8

1.1

1.5
0.3
20%
▲20%Reduction

2.0

Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion
yen per annum across all sectors ofsociety
Otherその他

ElectricPower Systems
電力系統
Other New Energy
その他新エネ発電
Generation
0.4 policy process:1.5 road map
Applying IAM into realto 2050
0.7PV
太陽光発電

5.8

0.2
0.6
1.1
4
0.8
0.6
0.5
2
0.6
1.0
0.3
015%
▲15%
Reduction

1.1
1.0

0.3
25%
▲25%
Reduction

Automobiles
自動車
Commercial Buildings /業務用建築物・機器
Equipment
Home
Electronics
家電製品
Residential Water
家庭用給湯器Heaters
Housing
住宅
Industrial
産業

Create Green
Markets

Grow GreenMarkets

Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture lowcarbon products.
8・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.

8

An idea for establishing theAsia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD)
by research organisations dedicating to LCD policy formation
Rationale: In order to strengthen Asia’s fundamental and sustained capacity in formulating
science-based policies for low-carbon development, and to carry out “leapfrog”
development in Asia for global climate stabilisation, launching a network called the “AsiaResearch Network for Low Carbon Development” can be considered.
Mechanism: A platform for knowledge sharing and capacity building of in-country researchers,
composed of research communities deeply involved in low-carbon development policy
processes. Active researchers in-country will work together with Japanese researchers onpractical matters—not reports for the bookshelf.
Objective: To strengthen the scientific base for LCD policies by proactively exchanging theknowledge rooted in the region between policy makers and researchers.
Characteristics: A self-independent, autonomous research network, operated throughvoluntary initiatives by researchers in each country.
Organisation: A network of COEs (Centers of Excellence) designated as country focal points.
Managed by a steering group and secretariat.
Funding: Contributions are expected not only from donor countries but also from internationalorganizations and from ASEAN countries themselves.
Action Schedule: Proposed at the ASEAN+3 EMM on 19 Oct. 2011: plan to be launched at East
Asia Climate Dialogue early April 2012 at Tokyo
9

Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD)
Contribution fromInternational
Organisations, etc

Input to Policy（EachCountry/G20/IPCC/UNFCCC ）Institutional Knowledge
SharingGov
UNEP

UNESCAP

RIGovSATREPS

Gov

RI
COE

RI

COE

KOICA
USAID
Etc

RI

RI

ADB
JICA

LCS-RNet

RIResearchInstitute

Steering Group
Secretariat
COE
Centre of
Excellence

COE

JST/JICA
APN

RI
CLEAN
GGGI

RI
ResearchInstitute

EU
Etc

Gov
Government
10Existing mechanisms …
International/Regional:•ADB: RDTA: Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth inDeveloping Asia: 2011-2013•World Bank: Low Emission Development Policy Implementation:•EU ASEM: ASEM Green Growth Forum: 3-4 Oct. 2011 Hanoi•Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research: 1997•USAid:2012•GGGI: Green Growth Initiatives:
Japan:•Asia GHG inventory workshop: 2002•Training WS of Integrated Assessment Model for CC policy: 1996•JICA/JST SATREPS Program (Malaysia): 2011•Asia Low Carbon Society Research: 2009-2013•International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet): 2008(Held 5 WSs in 2010-21 in the region)
Other than the above, there are lots of similar mechanisms operated by IOs/ other countries, etc.
11Activities and Publications Series of policy-research dialogue workshops on
Asian Low Carbon Development

Asia
A Low Carbon Asia:
From Malaysia to Asia
Dialogues between PolicyMakers and Researchers:
Towards Implementation
4-5 July 2011
Johore Bahr, Malaysia

Policy Dialogue:
Sustainable and Low-Carbon
Development in Indonesia and Asia

16-17 February 2010
Bogor, Indonesia

Cambodia workshop:
Scientific Approaches towards
Low Carbon Development inCambodia
10 January 2011
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Dialogue:Transition towards
Low Carbon Societiesin Thailand and Asia
17-18 November 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

Stakeholder Dialogue:
Low Carbon
Development andResearch Need
18-19 April 2011
Hanoi, Vietnum

Series of LCS-RNet G8 Annual Meetings 1st Annual Meeting
12-13 October 2009
Bologna, Italy
2nd Annual Meeting
Sept. 2010, Berlin,Germany
3rd Annual Meeting
Oct. 2011, Paris,
12France6

Dialogue between Policy makers and Researchers in
ASEAN countries (2010- )Min. of Natural Resourcesand Environment

VietNum
Thailand Greenhouse Gas
ManagementOrganization

University of Hanoi

Thailand

Ministry ofEnvironment

Joint Graduate School ofEnergy and Environment

LCS-RNet
Secretariat/IGES

Cambodia
Source : WEO 2009

Malaysia Iskandar
Authority

Ministry ofEnvironment

Malaysia

Indonesia

University of Technology
Malaysia

Bogor AgriculturalUniversity

Source : WEO 2009

131310th ASEAN Plus Three
Environment Ministers Meeting
A proposal for establishing theAsia Research Network for Low Carbon Development(ARNLCD)

Dr. Shuzo Nishioka
Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Secretary-General, International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet)
14