Introduction to impact
assessments in NIES
Kiyoshi Takahashi
Climate Risk Assessment Research Section
Center for Global Environmental Research
National Institute for Environmental Studies

（１）Comprehensive assessment ofclimate change impact for discussing
long-term stabilization target

1.0

0.0

Change of wheat productivity(%)

Sea Level Rise (m)

0

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1990

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-5
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-15
-20-25

インド

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Year

コムギ生産性変化

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イネ生産性変化

0Change of wheat productivity(%)

海面上昇

Year450

Year

Year

0.3

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0850

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52.0

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103.0

大気中CO2濃度1050
CO2eq concentration (ppmv)

Temperature increase (1990=0)

15

気温変化

4.0

1990

CO2eq emission (Gt-C)

20

1990

CO2排出経路25（２）Impact assessment
considering effects ofextreme climate events-5-10-15-20-25

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 SRESSRES-B2: Business as usual▲ GHGGHG-500ppmv: 500ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations▲ GHGGHG-600ppmv: 600ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations¾To achieve around 2℃ temperature increase in 2100, 550ppmv cap on total
GHG constraint is needed

Optimal emission path for achieving 2 degCtarget and consequent temperature change,
SLR and crop impacts.

Climate change impact on crop productivity
using daily climate scenario with highspatial resolution.

Application to thediscussion of post-2012
framework(Project S-3-2 and S-4)

Development of
AIM/Ecosystem(Project B-52)

Improvement of
impact model(Project B-12)（３）Impact assessment considering interaction between climate change,other environmental problems, and development target.

Three main research directions of AIM impact study

Specification of AIM/Impact [Policy]•

Objective– Comprehensive analysis and assessment of global warming control targets suchas stabilization of GHG concentrations, economically efficient emissions paths torealize those targets, and the impacts and risks under the sets of those targets.

•Input– Future scenarios of Population, Economic growth, Technology improvement,
energy reserve, etc.
– Assumption on constraints (Limits of GHGs emission/concentration, temperature
increase, and SLR), etc.

•Output– Time-series of GHGs emission, GHGs concentration, temperature, precipitation,
SLR, sector-wise impacts, etc.

•Model components– Dynamic optimization model linked with simple climate model for exploring anoptimal emission trajectory.
– Database-type country-wise/sector-wise impact assessment model.
– Burden sharing model for estimating country-wise GHGs emission reduction
necessary for achieving global emission reduction target.

•Reference– Hijioka, Y., T. Masui, K. Takahashi, Y. Matsuoka, H. Harasawa (2006)：
Development of a support tool for greenhouse gas emissions control policy tohelp mitigate the impact of global warming. Environmental Economics and Policy
Studies, 7(3), 331-346.

Economically optimal
path of GHGs emission

Discussion of
burden sharing

Dynamic optimization model
linked with simple climate model
Stabilization target(GHG concentration)

Spatial pattern of C.C.
derived from GCM results
Country-mean change in
Temperature and precipitation
Impact functions
Country-average ofclimate change impact on
sensitive sectors

AIM/Impact [Policy]

Impactmodel
studies

Stabilization target(Global mean temp. change)

Climatemodelstudies

GHG concentration&GMT change (ΔGMT)

Temperature increase

GHGs concentration

GHGs emission

1990=0.6℃

CO2-eq(ppmv)

CO2-eq(GtCeq/year)

5.0

1100

4.0

20

900

15700

101.0

500

50.0

300

0

3.0
2.0

1990 2050 2100 2150

1990 2050 2100 2150
BAU
SRES-B2- 50%

1990

GHGs
550ppmCO2eq

2050

GHGs
475ppmCO2eq

Potential productivity change in rice (%)
000-5-5-5-10-10-10-15-15-15

Thailand

-20
2000

2050

India-20

2100

2000

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Brazil-20
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2000

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21002100 年

Impact assessment moduleDatabase-type country-wise/sector-wise impact assessment model

Pattern scaling applied toestimate country-mean value

Spatial pattern of C.C.
derived from GCM results

Climatemodelstudies

Global mean temperature changeCountry-mean of change in temperature and precipitation
projected by GCM is archived in a table format.

Impact functions
FCntX,SecY(ΔT，ΔP)

Impactmodel
studies

Country-mean change in Temperature (ΔT)
and precipitation（ΔP）

These functions are obtained by executing simulation with large
number of synthetic scenarios and averaging the simulated result.
One impact function is created for each country and sector.

Time-series of country-mean climate changeimpacts on sensitive sectors

Extension of impact functions• Agriculture– [Revision] Consideration of some adaptations(Masutomi & Takahashi)• Health– [New] Change in heat stress mortality (Takahashi)• Water resource– [New] Change in Renewable water resource(Hanasaki)– [New] Water Severity Index (Hanasaki & Masutomi)– [New] Falkenmark Index (Hanasaki & Masutomi)Climate Change Impact Databasefor enhancing impact functions• Scientific literatures of existing impact
assessments are collected and archived.
• Relationships between global mean temperature
increase (or other climate factors) and degree ofimpact are extracted from figures/tables in theliteratures.
• Database has a user interface to search andshow archived data graphically.
• Archived data is used for enhancing impact
functions used in AIM/Impact [Policy].

Location

ScenarioTime

Global/Region/Country

ScenarioYear

Local-temp

Global-temp

Spot

OtherField
Sub-field

ResultAffected Sector

ClimateAssumption

Properties archived in the databaseImpact

ReferenceLink to PDF
CommentUnit

Date ofpublicationAuthor

Climate Change Impact Databasefor enhancing impact functions① Selection of spatial
scale (Global/Region/ Country)② Region / Country③ Spot④ Scenario⑤ Affected sector⑥ Sub-affected sector⑦ Author⑧ Date ofpublication⑨ Unit⑩ X-axis⑪ Links to references

①②③④
⑤⑥
⑦
⑧

⑪⑨⑩

Applications of AIM/Impact [Policy]in the research projects supported by Ministry of Environment• Research project on establishing of methodology toevaluate middle to long term environmental policy
options toward low carbon society in Japan (S-3;FY2004-2008)– For exploring optimal emission reduction trajectory toachieve prescribed long-term targets.

• Comprehensive assessment of climate change
impacts to determine the dangerous Level of global
warming and to determine the appropriate
stabilization target for atmospheric GHG
concentration (S-4; FY2005-2009)– For synthesizing scientific knowledge on climate change
impacts both at global, national and sub-national scales.

Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
to Determine the Dangerous Level of Global Warming and to Determine theAppropriate Stabilization Target for Atmospheric GHG Concentration

Water resourceHuman health・ Inundation damage
・ Sedimentation disaster・ Snow water resource

・ Heat stress mortality
・ Air quality
・ Communicable diseases

Forest vegetation
・ Potential distribution ofbeech, fir, and other trees.

Agriculture

Coastal・ Rice production in Japan,China, Thai, Viet Nam
・ Impact on food market

tree in Shirakami Mt. range
・ Liquefaction risk dueBeech
to SLR・ High tide risk due to SLR andchange in typhoon.

Example of sectoral impact assessment

Sector-wise impact assessment
Economic evaluation of climate change impacts
Impact Function
GHGemission

Stabilizationtarget

ClimatechangeAIM/Impact [Policy] （Long-term targets）

zTime-series analysisof impacts
Without any mitigation, beech trees
zMonetary
analysis ofin Shirakami Mt. range, a world
heritage site in north Japan, may
impacts
disappear in 100 years.

Change in heat stress mortality per unit area (1990s and 2090s)

1990s

2090s

10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1
Takahashi, K., Honda, Y. and Emori, S. (2007) Assessing Mortality Risk from(person/km2)
Heat Stress due to Global Warming, Journal of Risk Research. (In press)

Research on development of comprehensive scenarios of climate change
and means of communication (S-5 project)

U ncerta
intya nalysis

Projection of climate changewith GCM

Development ofprobabilistic
climate scenario

RCM
Downscaling

Reliability
assessment of GCM

Re scom earchomu
nica n
tion

Imp
ac
ass
ess t
me nt

Probabilistic climate change scenario
Indexes ofextreme event

Water
resource

Ocean Cryosphere
SLR
Fishery「Vision of future climate」
Communication(How to deliver scientificknowledge to citizens)

Crop
Food

Needs onscientific knowledge
Needs of company
Needs of citizen

Policymakers・Citizens・Companies

Challenge of impact study in S-5

Example：Probabilistic analysis of runoffchange based on multi-model / multi-scenario

Probability ofrunoff decrease

１．Impact assessment with uncertainty range based on
probabilistic climate change scenarios ⇒ Risk analysis

Probability ofrunoff increase

Scholze et al. (2006, PNAS)

２．Comprehensive assessment of global scale impact
through original simulation and review of existingknowledge⇒「Vision of future climate and its risks」

Summary of presentation• Demand on AIM/Impact[Policy] has been
increasing.
– Expansion of impact functions is an urgent need, andnew members of the team is struggling with the task.
– AIM Climate Change Impact Database is expected tosupport the expansion on impact functions.

• New large research project on development ofcomprehensive climate change scenarios will
start from the coming April.
– Global scale impact assessment based on the latest
climate model results.
– How to transfer the research knowledge with large
uncertainty to people in general is also studied.