The University of Tokyo Symposium onLong-Period Ground Motion andUrban Disaster Mitigation
Proceedings

March 17~18, 2010
Fukutake Hall, Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies,
University of Tokyo, Japan

Hosted by Organizers of the University of Tokyo Symposiumon Long-Period Ground Motion and Urban Disaster Mitigation
Supported by SCEC-ERI Cooperation Program and
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No.19201034)

ScopeLong-period ground motion has become an important consideration in disastermitigation because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures,such as high-rise buildings, big oil storage tanks, and long-span bridges. Large
subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate
long-period ground motions with long duration in distant sedimentary basins with thehelp of path effects. The worst example of destruction caused by long-period groundmotion occurred in Mexico City 400km away from the 1985 Michoacan earthquake.
Recent examples are fires in oil storage tanks caused by the 2003 Tokachi-oki
earthquake that occurred in Hokkaido, Japan. Since megathrust earthquakes such as
those in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai regions are expected to occur in near future,long-period ground motion is a threat to be considered seriously by Japan where large
cities are located along a subduction zone.
Long-period ground motion and its urban disasters are also global issues beyond Japan.
Large earthquakes, which often generate damaging long-period ground motions, occur
in various regions in the world, and long-period ground motion traveling for a long
distance is essentially a phenomenon over country boundaries. Countermeasures against
long-period ground motion begin to be implemented into seismic design codes in many
countries. We have to reconstruct research on long-period ground motion, based on
rapid progress in ground motion prediction and simulation using huge data from strong
motion observation networks strengthened recently. In addition, the recent increase oflarge-scale structures has greatly changed the situation of urban areas. Therefore, it is
now necessary to comprehensively research long-period ground motion and urban
disaster mitigation.

Kazuki Koketsu
Chair of the Organizers of the University of Tokyo Symposiumon Long-Period Ground Motion and Urban Disaster Mitigationi

Invited Speakers and Panelists
John G. Anderson
Thomas M. Brocher
Ezio Faccioli
Yozo Fujino
Robert W. Graves
Masanori Hamada
Thomas H. Heaton
Hiroshi Kawase
Brian L. N. Kennett
Jack P. Moehle
Takuya Nagae
Izuru Okawa
Kim B. Olsen
Tsutomu Sasatani
Zifa Wang(University of Nevada, USA)
(United States Geological Survey, USA)
(Politecnico di Milano, Italy)(University of Tokyo, Japan)(URS Corporation, USA)
(Waseda University, Japan)(California Institute of Technology, USA)
(Kyoto University, Japan)(Australian National University, Australia)(University of California, Berkeley, USA)
(E-Defense, NIED, Japan)(Building Research Institute, Japan)(San Diego State University, USA)
(Hokkaido University, Japan)(Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China)

Organizers
Kazuki Koketsu
Muneo Hori
Toshimi Kabeyasawa
Tsuyoshi Takada
Yoshiaki Nakano
Teruyuki Kato
Robert J. Geller
Takashi Furumura(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(Chair)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(Graduate School of Engineering, Univ. Tokyo)(IIS, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(Graduate School of Science, Univ. Tokyo)(III/ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

Local Organizing Committee
Hiroe Miyake
Tsuyoshi Ichimura
Yousok KimTatsuya Itoi
Noriyuki Takahashi
Tokie Watanabe
Kazuki Koketsu(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(Secretary)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(Graduate School of Engineering, Univ. Tokyo)(IIS, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)(ERI, Univ. Tokyo)iiProgram
March 17 (Wednesday)
13:00 - 13:30
13:30 - 13:50

13:50 - 14:15

14:15 - 14:40

14:40 - 14:55

14:55 - 15:20

15:20 - 15:45

Registration
Opening
Naoshi Hirata (Director, Earthquake Research Institute, University ofTokyo, Japan)
Yoshinori Suzuki (Director, Earthquake and Disaster-Reduction
Division, MEXT, Japan)
Chair: Takashi Furumura
John G. Anderson (University of Nevada, USA / University of Tokyo,Japan), Hiroe Miyake, Kazuki Koketsu, Shri Krishna Singh,
Roberto Quaas, and Citlali Perez Yanez
Spectral Characteristics and Low-Frequency Components ofExceptional Ground Motions
Thomas M. Brocher (United States Geological Survey, USA),
Arthur D. Frankel, David H. Oppenheimer, Jon B. Fletcher,and James H. Luetgert
New Observations of Long-Period Ground Motions in the San
Francisco Bay Area, California
Coffee Break
Chair: Ralph J. Archuleta
Kazuki Koketsu (University of Tokyo, Japan) and Hiroe Miyake
Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps for Future Plate-Boundary
Earthquakes
Robert Graves (URS Corporation, USA), Scott Callaghan,
Patrick Small, Gaurang Mehta, Kevin Milner, Gideon Juve,
Karan Vahi, Edward Field, Ewa Deelman, David Okaya,
Philip Maechling, and Thomas Jordan
Full Waveform Physics-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Calculations for Southern California using the SCEC CyberShake
Platformiii

15:45 - 16:10

Ezio Faccioli (Politecnico di Milano, Italy), Aldo Bianchini,and Manuela Villani
New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for T > 1 s and Their
Influence on Seismic Hazard Assessment

16:10 - 16:25

Coffee Break

16:25 - 16:50

16:50 - 17:15

18:00 - 20:00

Chair: Kazuki Koketsu
Brian L. N. Kennett (Australian National University, Australia)
How Transferable is Experience from Japan to Other Environments
such as Indonesia?
Zifa Wang (Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China),
Weimin Dong, and Pane Stojanovski
Micro-Insurance and Its Application in Earthquake Risk Reduction inChina
Reception
March 18 (Thursday)

09:30 - 09:55

09:55 - 10:20

10:20 - 10:35

10:35 - 11:00

11:00 - 11:25

Chair: Robert J. Geller
Kim B. Olsen (San Diego State University, USA), Steven M. Day,and Daniel Roten
Calculating the Source Sensitivity of Basin Guided Waves byTime-Reversed Simulations
Hiromitsu Mizutani, Robert J. Geller (University of Tokyo, Japan),and Nobuyasu Hirabyashi
A New Discrete Method for Computing Synthetic Seismograms
Coffee Break
Chair: Toshimi Kabeyasawa
Izuru Okawa (Building Research Institute, Japan), Toshimi Satoh,Toshiaki Sato, Takao Nishikawa, and Matsutaro Seki
Development of the Design Long-Period Ground Motion for Building
Structures
Jack P. Moehle (University of California, Berkeley, USA)iv

11:25 - 11:50

11:50 - 13:05

Ground Motion Selection and Scaling for Tall Building DesignTakuya Nagae (National Research Institute for Earth Science andDisaster Prevention, Japan), Kunio Fukuyama, Kouichi Kajiwara,
Takahito Inoue, and Masayoshi Nakashima
E-Defense Shaking Table Tests for High-Rise Buildings Subjected toLong-Period Ground Motions
Lunch
Chair: Muneo Hori

13:05 - 13:30

13:30 - 13:55

13:55 - 14:20

Yozo Fujino (University of Tokyo, Japan)
Seismic Retrofit of Long-Span Bridges Using Ground Motions Basedon Fault Rupture Models
Thomas H. Heaton (California Institute of Technology, USA)and Jing Yang
Simulated Deformations of Seattle High-Rise Buildings from a
Hypothetical Giant Cascadian Earthquake
Masanori Hamada (Waseda University, Japan)
Seismic Safety of Bayside Industrial Zone against Long-Period
Ground Motion and Soil Liquefaction

14:20 - 14:40

Coffee Break

14:40 - 16:00

Panel Discussion
Chair
Robert W. Graves (URS Corporation, USA)
Takashi Furumura (University of Tokyo, Japan)
Panelist
Ezio Faccioli (Politecnico di Milano, Italy)
Thomas H. Heaton (California Institute of Technology, USA)
Muneo Hori (University of Tokyo, Japan)
Hiroshi Kawase (Kyoto University, Japan)
Tsutomu Sasatani (Hokkaido University, Japan)

16:00

Closingv

Proceedings
Spectral Characteristics and Low-Frequency Components ofExceptional Ground Motions
John G. Anderson, Hiroe Miyake, Kazuki Koketsu,
Shri Krishna Singh, Roberto Quaas, and Citlali Perez Yanez

1

New Observations of Long-Period Ground Motions in the San Francisco
Bay Area, California
Thomas M. Brocher, Arthur D. Frankel, David H. Oppenheimer,
Jon B. Fletcher, and James H. Luetgert

7Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps for Future Plate-Boundary Earthquakes 11
Kazuki Koketsu and Hiroe Miyake
Full Waveform Physics-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Calculationsfor Southern California using the SCEC CyberShake Platform
Robert Graves, Scott Callaghan, Patrick Small, Gaurang Mehta,
Kevin Milner, Gideon Juve, Karan Vahi, Edward Field,
Ewa Deelman, David Okaya, Philip Maechling, and Thomas Jordan

17

New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for T > 1 s and Their Influence
on Seismic Hazard Assessment
Ezio Faccioli, Aldo Bianchini, and Manuela Villani

23

How Transferable is Experience from Japan to Other Environments
such as Indonesia?
Brian L. N. Kennett

31

Micro-Insurance and Its Application in Earthquake Risk Reduction in China
Zifa Wang, Weimin Dong, and Pane Stojanovski

33vi

Calculating the Source Sensitivity of Basin Guided Waves byTime-Reversed Simulations
Kim B. Olsen, Steven M. Day, and Daniel Roten

37

A New Discrete Method for Computing Synthetic Seismograms
Hiromitsu Mizutani, Robert J. Geller, and Nobuyasu Hirabyashi

45

Development of the Design Long-Period Ground Motion for Building Structures
Izuru Okawa, Toshimi Satoh, Toshiaki Sato, Takao Nishikawa,and Matsutaro Seki

47

Ground Motion Selection and Scaling for Tall Building DesignJack P. Moehle

53

E-Defense Shaking Table Tests for High-Rise Buildings Subjected toLong-Period Ground Motions
Takuya Nagae, Kunio Fukuyama, Kouichi Kajiwara, Takahito Inoue,and Masayoshi Nakashima

57

Seismic Retrofit of Long-Span Bridges Using Ground Motions Based onFault Rupture Models
Yozo Fujino

59

Seismic Safety of Bayside Industrial Zone against Long-Period Ground Motion
and Soil Liquefaction
Masanori Hamada

63

Simulated Deformations of Seattle High-Rise Buildings from a Hypothetical
Giant Cascadian Earthquake
Thomas H. Heaton and Jing Yang

68vii