Introduction to Integrated
Environment Assessment Models
Presentation byP.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop onIntegrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region
October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
IIM Ahmedabad

Presentation Agenda• Why Integrated Environment Assessment?
• What is Integrated Environment Assessment?
Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change• What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component
Models?
Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis• What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment
provide?
Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change• Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated
Assessment in developing countries?
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Why Integrated
Environment Assessment?

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Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment
Policymaking
Process

Models andFrameworks

Integrated Assessment

Meteorology

Geophysics
Biology

Ecology

Geochemistry

Knowledge
disciplines

Atmospheric
Chemistry

Economics

Policy sciences
Climatology

Hydraulics

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What to Integrate?
• Diverse Scientific Disciplines• Diverse socio-economic scenarios• Macro and micro-economies• Local and regional boundaries• Short and long time horizons• Local and global environmental concerns• Rural and urban perspectives• Regional emissions and impact assessment• Probability and Decision under uncertainty• Technology
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Why Integrated Assessment?
• To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile
pieces of existing knowledge• To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge)• To develop full range of policy outcomes• To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines andpolicy formulation

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Why Integrated Assessment Models?
• Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency
pointing to areas where more information is required• IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools• Communications tools between different sciences andbetween science and policy• Insights from investigations in the domains of the subcomponents

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What is Integrated
Environment Assessment?
ExampleIntegrated Assessmentof Climate Change

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Climate Issues

Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change”
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Integrated Climate Change Dimensions

AtmosphericComposition

Climate &Sea Level

Human ActivitiesEcosystems

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Integrated Framework for Climate Change

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What are Integrated
Assessment Models?
ExampleIntegrated Assessment Models for
Climate Change Policy Analysis

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AIM Model System
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

A set of ecosystemmodels, including avegetation dynamics
model, a water
resource model, anagricultural
productivity modeland a health impact
model

AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology& land use model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/MaterialEnvironmental
Environburden
mentalEnvironmental
BurdenIndustry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleA environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine

Land use

Water resource
Crop
Productivity

Socio-economic
indicator

Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
modelAIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailandtrends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental
trend

Korea
IndiaJapan

IIM AhmedabadStrategic Database
Innovational Work System
Outputs
Outputs

Outputs
AIM-Trend
AIM-Top-down
Policymaking

AIM-Energy
Monitoring &ProcessingDatafrom IEM

CommonDatabase

Statistics
AIM-Material

Outputs

AIM-Ecosystem

Outputs
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MiniCAM
An Integrated Modelling Framework

AtmosphericComposition
MAGICCClimate & Sea
Level
SCENGEN

Human Activities
ERB-AGLU

Ecosystems
AGLU & MERGE

MiniCAMCOMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE & SEA LEVELMAGICC
Atmospheric Chemistry

MAGICC
Ocean Carbon
Cycle

HUMAN ACTIVITIESMAGICCClimateMAGICC--Ocean· temperature· sea level

ECOSYSTEMSERBEnergySystemERB
Other Human
Systems

MAGICC
Terrestrial
Carbon Cyc.

Un-managed
Eco-system& Animals

ALU
Ag., L'stock& Forestry(none)
CoastalSystemALU
Crops &Forestry

ALU
Hydrology

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What are
Component Models?

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Socio-economic
Cropmodel, an agricultural indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

GDP and CO2 Emissions:
AIM/Trend Model

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Trend

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

Korea

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

IndiaJapan

50

G DP grow th

40

16

CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]

30

1420

121010EU R O PE+FO R M ER U SSRNO R TH AM ER IC A

8LATIN AM ER IC A
AFR IC A+M ID DLE EAST

62040

2030

ASIA PACIFIC
2020

0422032
2025
2015
Year 2005
1995

BGD
NPL
MMR
VNM
PAKIDN
TJK
IND
LKA
KGZ
CHN
PHL
THA
IRN
PRK
UZB
MYS
JPN
NZL
AUS
TKM
TWN
KAZ
KOR
SGP

RecycleEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Consumer
Environment Fund
Wastes

A environmenteconomy integratedmodel with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

2010

AIM/Material

AIM Family

AIM/Top-down

2000

A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

1990

AIM/Bottom-up

0Country

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

SO2 Emission
AIM/Emission ModelTemperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

RecycleEnvironment Fund
Wastes

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

20002030

Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15

Million Tons
< 0.010.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060> 0.060< 0.20

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem /Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local levelPrecipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economicindicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO 2 in China

Water Consumption:
AIM/Ecosystem Model

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up

AIM Family

A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

RecycleEnvironment FundWastes

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model
Futureeconomic trend

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project
future socioeconomic
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureenvironmental trend

Korea
China
India
ThailandJapan1995
B a s e lin e

2032
2030
F o r tr e s s W o r ld
MarketForceW A TE R C O N S U M P TIO N

2032
P o lic y R e fo r m7 0 0 .0 0 0 0

CONSUMPTION(km^3/year)

6 0 0 .0 0 0 0

5 0 0 .0 0 0 0

4 0 0 .0 0 0 0

3 0 0 .0 0 0 0

2 0 0 .0 0 0 0
MF
FW
PR
GT

1 0 0 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

YEA R

C h a n g e o f w a te r c o n s u m p tio n fr o m 1 9 9 5 to 2 0 3 2( D o m e s tic + A g ric u ltu r e + In d u s tr y )1m 3 /h a / y e a r

40

200

1000

5000

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
IndustryGreen Purchase
Industry
Consumer

RecycleEnvironment Fund
Wastes

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

AIM/Top-down &AIM/Bottom-up ModelIndiaJapan

26 region – 36 sector
World
Computable General Equilibrium Model
level(AIM/Top-down)Countrylevel

Bottom-up Bottom-up
technology technology& land use Model& land use Model(AIM/Bottom-up)(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-up
technology
・・・ & land use Model(AIM/Bottom-up)
IIM AhmedabadInsights from
Integrated Climate
Change Assessment

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Emissions and Concentrations
16800

WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350

IS92a
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350

14
12750
700

IS92a

650

10ppmv

6550
500

4450

22290

2265

2240

2215

2190

2165

2140

2115

2090

2065

2040

20152290

2265

22402215

2190

2165

2140

2115

2090

300
2065

-2
2040

350

2015

01990

400

1990

PgC/yr

600
8

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Energy and Carbon Emissions for India:
AIMENDUSE Model
Energy Consumption

Carbon Emissions

50

800
Renewables
NuclearBiomass

Exa Joules

30

Hydro
Gas

20

Oil

600

400

200

10Coal0
1995

Carbon (MT)

400
2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

1995

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

IIM Ahmedabad

GHG versus Local Emissions in India
Carbon Emissions

SO2 Emissions

800

7Million Tonnes

Carbon (MT)

6600

400

54
32200

100

1995

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

1995

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

IIM AhmedabadGlobal Carbon Mitigation Scenarios(2000 - 2100)
1800

Carbon (Million Ton)

1600
1400

Base Case
750ppmv

1200
1000

650ppmv
550ppmv

800
600
4002000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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Technology, Energy & Climate:
MINICAM

Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year

25,00020,00015,000soil carbon sequestration
sequestration from fossil power generation
sequestration from synfuels production
sequestration from H2 production
end-use technology improvements
nuclearsolarbiomass
550 ppmv emissions

10,0005,00001990 2005

550 ppm
2020

2035

2050v
206520802095

IIM AhmedabadIndian Energy System Transformation
Under 550 ppmv Stabilization
Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case
CarbonCapture
EnergyEfficiency
WindSolar
Biomass
Hydro
NuclearGas
Oil
India550ppmvemission

140120

Exajoules

100
80
60
40

2500

2000

1500

MTC

Base Case Energy System

1000

20550 ppmv

500

0
1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

Biomass

Hydro

Solar

2080

2095

0
Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

IIM Ahmedabad

Technological Change in India toStabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
WindSolar
BiomassHydro
NuclearGas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV

2500
2000

2000
1600

1500
1200
1000
80050040001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

IIM Ahmedabad

Regional Energy Market Development

IIM AhmedabadImpact of Regional Energy MarketDevelopments in South-Asia
Emissions Reduction (2015)
10.5
Reduction (%)

9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
CarbonYearSOX

Grid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation
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Why and What kind of Capacity
Building for Integrated
Environment Assessment inDeveloping Countries?

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Integrated EnvironmentAssessment: Developing Country
Problems• Assessment and modeling capabilities• Inadequate database• Structural changes in the economy• Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns• Weak regional and international linkages• Lack of sustained funding

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Limitations of Present Approaches• Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long terminteractions between the economy, society, and environment• Assumptions derived from developed world perspective• Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events• Weak behavioral interfaces• Distance between analysts and policy makers

IIM AhmedabadCapacity Building Needs forDeveloping Countries• Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences• Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams• Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing
country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts• Sustained funding• Institutionalize integrated assessment activities

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