Tackling food consumption inequality to fighthunger without pressuring the environment
Tomoko Hasegawa (Ritsumeikan University),
Petr Havlík, Stefan Frank, Amanda Palazzo,Hugo Valin (IIASA)
AIM international workshop
November 18‐19th 2019 @ NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

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AFOLU activities in AIM teamLand
Biodiversity and Ecosystem• IPBES• WWF
Mitigation in LULUCF• Ohashi et al (in press)
Bioenergy• Wu et al.,
2018
AFOLU‐Japan

Ozone
Extreme events
HealthClimate mitigation

Food security, hunger• Hasegawa et al., 2018, 2019
• Fujimori et al., 2019

Food2

AFOLU activities in AIM team in 2019
LandBiodiversity and Ecosystem• IPBES• WWF
Mitigation in LULUCF• Ohashi et al (in press)
Bioenergy• Wu et al.,
2018
AFOLU‐JapanOzone
Extreme events
HealthClimate mitigation

Food security, hunger• Hasegawa et al., 2018, 2019
• Fujimori et al., 2019

Food3

How to feed the growing population•Ending hunger is a Sustainable Development Goal of the United Nations.

•Increasing food production through agricultural intensification and extensification is one
approach to meeting the dietary needs of a growing world population.

•But, increasing food production will threaten the environment.

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Objectives• To explore alternative hunger eradication scenarios that
do not compromise environmental protection.
• To estimate effects of ending hunger on the environment
with different food and agricultural policies• Food and agricultural policies considered in this study– Food support for poor
– Reduced food waste– Reduced food over-consumption– Crop yield development in developing regions
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Scenario settings• Scenarios with different food and hunger policies• Policies represented by exogenous food requirements• Estimate required food production, land and environment
effects.
Scenarios

End hunger
by 2030

Business as Usual (BaU)

No

More food for All

Yes

Food for Poor

Yes

Food for Poor ＋ (a) reduced food waste

Yes

Food for Poor ＋ (b) reduced over‐consumption

Yes

Food for Poor ＋ (c) improved crop yields

Yes

Food for Poor ＋ ALL (a+b+c)

Yes

6Global agricultural economic model：GLOBIOM•••

Under given
population andincome, themodel simulates
agricultural
supply anddemand, landuse, greenhousegases and otherenvironmentalvariables.
Based on pricemechanisms(costminimization)
World 30 regions
7Havlik et al., 2014; Frank et al 2017

Food distribution within a country at food policies

1000

2000

3000

4000

Mean per-capita food availability (kcal/person/day)8

Food distribution within a country at food policies
Undernourishment

1000

Maximum energy requirement

Minimum energy requirement

Over‐consumption

2000

3000

4000

Mean per‐capita food availability (kcal/person/day)9

Food distribution within a country at food policies
Undernourishment

1000

Maximum energy requirement

Minimum energy requirement

Over‐consumption

2000

3000

4000

Mean per‐capita food availability (kcal/person/day)10

Food distribution within a country at food policies
Undernourishment

1000

Maximum energy requirement

Minimum energy requirement

Over‐consumption

2000

3000

4000

Mean per‐capita food availability (kcal/person/day)11

Undernourishment

Maximum energy requirement

Minimum energy requirement

Over‐consumption

Business as Usual
More food for all
Food for poor (FFP)FFP + NoOvercons
FFP + NoWaste
FFP+ALL
1000

2000

3000

4000

Mean per‐capita food availability (kcal/person/day)12

Population ratio

Population ratio

Possible regional changes in food distribution to end hunger

Food calorie intake [kcal/person/day]

13More food for All

Impacts on the environmentMore food for All• Food production ：20％ ↑• Agricultural land：48Mha ↑• Greenhouse gas emissions：550 MtCO2eq ↑Food for Poor

Food for Poor
• Food production ：3％ ↑Food for Poor ＋ ALL• Food production ：9％ ↓• Agricultural land：230Mha ↓• Greenhouse gas emissions：1360 MtCO2eq ↓Food for poor ＋ALL

※Values show the changes from BaU in 2030

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Impacts on the environment

Hasegawa et al. 201915

Conclusions
1.

As is well known, there is enough food to feed a population of 7 billion.

2.

Current hunger is not caused by food shortages, but by distributional
problems for social and political reasons.

3.

To eliminate hunger while protecting the environment , combining
intensive food support, together with food and agricultural policies suchas food loss and overconsumption prevention, would be needed.

4.

The simultaneous achievement of multiple goals such as the SDGs
requires the implementation of multiple policies.

※ This study is supported by Global Environmental Research Fund (2‐1702) of
Ministry of Environment of Japan.

16AFOLU parts in AIM team
• Impacts– Multi‐model’s health impact tools (Yuki Ochi)• Mitigation– Bioenergy potential estimation (Wenchao Wu)• Land use model– Regional downscaling – Japan’ case (Wenchao Wu)

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