The 17th AIM International Workshop

The integrated assessment of Korea’s
response to climate change
2012. 02. 18
DongKun LEE, Chan PARK
Seoul National University

Index•Trends in Korea- Government policy- Research trends•

Korea’s attempts in integrated assessment and its significance•The development of local government-oriented model and its application- Greenhouse gas emissions management model- Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model (case study in Gyeonggi-do Province)- Implementation of vulnerability model and its assessment (case study in Gyeonggi-do Province)- Future challenges- Response to climate change with the adaption and management model of an urban ecosystem supporting
the security of biodiversity.

2Trends in Korea

Trends in Korea
Government policy•

Succeeding the enactment of low- carbon green growth in November 09, a goal was set forthe country to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions via the vote of the State Council, incomparison to BAU(Business as Usual, under BAU) by 30% by 2020.

•

Beginning from 2009, the mitigation of climate change and its adaption methods of the
reduction of greenhouse gases data will be established with 16 metropolitan cities in acomprehensive climate change adaptation plan.
Scenario
BAU

Unit: Mil.ton
Source : Presidential Committee on Green Growth, 20094

Trends in Korea
Research trends•

By developing a domestic/international model, the quantitative prediction of national greenhousegas emissions and its reduction goal are achieved.

•

The comprehensive economic analysis will be done according to the impacts of climate change andreductions.

5Trends in Korea
Research trends•

The development of an impact prediction model, vulnerability assessment model and an emissions
prediction model for the establishment of climate change adaption strategies is carried out at a local
level.

Local Government Greenhouse Gas Emissions Prediction Model

Vulnerability assessment of climate change

6

Korea’s attempt in integrated assessment
and its significanceOutline•

Using the developed domestic and foreign-based greenhouse gas emissions prediction, climatechange impacts, adaption methods (model) and more the analysis is being carried out.

•

Utilizing a variety of models, integrated assessments are being initiated, however, rather thanembodiment in an integrated assessment model, individual models are being developed instead at

the current state.
•

In national studies, meaningful results are drawn, but a substantial amount of research oftransitional climate change adaption plans at the local government is still insufficient.

•

For the concrete mitigation & adaption plans of climate change, each local government has its
research in progress.

8

Korea’s attempt in integrated assessment and the results
The top-down integration model development and low carbon policy analysis•

Noh et al., 2010

By incorporating the bottom-up model of MARKAL and the top-down model of CGE, thepotential greenhouse gas emissions and the cost reduction will be analyzed and the reduction
target will be achieved in order for the policy measures to be evaluated.
•

The possible achievable reduction of international carbon price of 19dollars per CO2 ton isanalyzed according to carbon emissions of 16.4%, which is equivalent to 102,505 thousand CO2
ton.

Economic impact analysis according to climate change

Kim et al., 2010•

Using the CGE and PAGE models, the damages of climate change and its reduction cost are analyzed.

•

Using the CGE model, the analyzed results of the real GDP reduction (in comparison to BAU) in
2020 is estimated to be around 0.01%~0.15% and 0.03%~0.75% in 2030.

9

Korea’s attempt in integrated assessment and the results
The Vulnerability Assessment for Local government in Korea•

Lee et al., 2011

Using the CCGIS from the National Institute of Environmental Research center, the local
government vulnerability assessment implemented according to future climate change, climate
sensitivity and the ability to adapt.

•

The study results show the policy and support funds that are selected for utilization of theimportance of local needs for the response to climate change in each local government.

•

The evaluation of vulnerable areas are done by individually in each local government, which isthen used in the establishment of measures.

Results of vulnerability assessment(NIER, National Institute of Environmental Research, 2011)10

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
1. Greenhouse gas emissions management model
2. Implementation of vulnerability model and its assessment (case study in Gyeonggi-do Province)
3. Response to climate change with the adaption and management model of an urban ecosystem
supporting the security of biodiversity.
4. Future Challenges
5. Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model (case study in Gyeonggi-do Province)

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas emissions management model for each local government

•
•
•
•

The greenhouse gas emissions for each local government are categorized and managed according toenergy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use change and forestry and waste materials.
Using the concept of energy services, the future greenhouse gas emission calculations andapplication of reduction policy results are derived from the AIM model.
The energy service demand is forecasted through past greenhouse emission data and regression
analysis (which are derived initially from socio-economic variables).
The organization of the reduction policy is done according to priority and its performance
evaluation is implemented.
<Base year>
Energy service
demand<Target area>
Energy service
demandService Share

Service Share

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency

Primary Energy

Primary Energy

Emission<Target area>

DemandDemandEmission

Emission

Emission

Energy sector온실가스배출계수

<Base year>

Non energy sector(NIER, National Institute of Environmental Research, 2011)12

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
MethodVulnerability model and the evaluation•

The assessment of vulnerability is carried out using the bottom-up and top-down methods.
Selection of assessment categoryTop-down methods

Bottom-up methods

CCSM3 Model

Data establishment
for surrogate variables

Downscaling

Selection of variables

Experts interview&
Literature review

Regional Climate Model*

Setting weights of variables

Delphi research

Climate Data

Standardization of variables*CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)(provided NIER)

Calculating variables
Relative vulnerability
Mapping task
13

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Vulnerability model and the evaluation•

The vulnerability of landslides caused by torrential rains– The vulnerability of landslides caused by torrential rain in the Province of Gyeonggi-do
will show a continuous increasing pattern from the year 2000 to 2050.
– In the year 2100, the northeastern region indicates a relative increase in vulnerability.

present

Lee et al., 2011

2020

2050

2100
14

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Vulnerability model and the evaluation•

Vulnerability of rice production in Gyeonggi-province-Due to climate change, rice productivity falls-

Rice production according to changes in temperature at the present state (100%) 
2℃ Rise (96.3%) → 3℃ Rise(92.3%) → 4℃ Rise(90.4%) → 5℃ Rise(86.5%) is shown.

2000s
Jo. 2011

2020
15

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Response to climate change with the adaption and management model of anurban ecosystem supporting the security of biodiversity

Concept

Sustainable use of
ecosystem services

16

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Response to climate change with the adaption and management model of anurban ecosystem supporting the security of biodiversity

Model structure

Ecologically Innovative City

vision: Climate Change Secure Eco-city

Objective

Enhancement ofdiversity

Bio

Reduction of CO₂

Response to climatechangeTechnology development of the commercialization of adaptive management

Method7HUUHVWULDO(FRV\VWHPV$TXDWLF
(FRV\VWHP$UWLILFLDO(FRV\VWHP

policy support
Identification and monitoring ofplant species

Plant model planningand design

Functional
assessment of theecosystem

Economics,
political support,
promoting

Adaptive management
system for urban
ecosystem

17

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Future Challenges•

The mitigation of climate change and the response needed for an integrated assessment model isbeing developed, however a direct link fails to be met at the moment.

•

In order to apply the integrated model, the scenario from the local government needs to be
developed.

•

Overall emission calculation model should be set up, which includes the data of the actual spatialplan and land use.
•

Due to the importance of biodiversity worldwide, technology development and management
strategies for climate change response is required.

Feel free to share your ideas on the expansion of biodiversity
and climate change mitigation & adaption

18

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

Target area

In comparison to other Metropolitan Local Governments in Korea, Gyeonggi-do province isadjacent to Seoul and has a sustainable high growth potential, which results in potential diversechanges.

19

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model

Scope Base year: 2005
 Target year:2030
 GHG : carbon dioxide
 Emissions, Carbon sequestration through the soil and vegetation

20

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model

Methods

 Using the ExSS model, land use change model, and vegetation carbon and soil carbon calculation
model, the quantitative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, its absorption amount and measures
for future climate change, are performed.

21

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
The energy sector

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

The energy sector is categorized into
industrial, household, commercial,public and transportation.

•

Energy usage due to changes in energy

Setting framework
Area, Base year, Target year, Scenario

Collection of the base year
information
Socio-economic, Energy use

service demand utilizes both classified
data and the energy use census datareport from the National Institute ofEnvironmental Research.

Setting of futurescenarios

Collection of Low
Carbon measuresinformation

Policy/technology

Low carbon policy

Estimation of carbon balance (ExSS)

22

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

Vegetation and soil Sector

For the land use change simulation,
the CLUE model will be implemented.

•

Impacts due to climate change willdraw regression equation thatmeasures for temperature, LAI, andNPP.

•

The changes in the reduction/emissionof greenhouse gases due to land use
and climate change will be classified
to attain the data.

NPP : Net Primary Production
CLUE : Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects

23

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Socio-economic scenarios

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model

2005

2030

Population

10,612,455

14,074,523

1.3

Household3,329,177

5,814,153

1.7

GRDP(10bill.KRW)

169,315424,246

2.5

Primary industry

2.4

2.1

Secondary industries

63.3

55.9

tertiary industries

34.3

42.0

Area of ​commercial areas(㎢)

212,197,102

539,722,821

2.5

Passenger transport demand(M.P.km)

119,347

147,272

1.2

Freight transport demand(M.t.km)

3,393

7,598

2.2

Industry production
structure ratio

ratio

24

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Measures

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

The reduction of energy efficiency, transportation structures, use of renewable energy and energy
conservation for each household.
Measures

Element

Energy-efficient appliances

Increased equipment efficiency

Building insulation

Reduction in heating energy demandPower generation

Fuel composition

Renewable energy

Passenger
transportation
structure

Energy saving
actions

The National Energy Plan

Changes in heating fuel configuration

1%

Photovoltaic, Wind
Reduction in demand to
move

Changes in heating fuel configuration

5%

Reduction in traffic for one day

10%

Changes in transportation

10%

Decreased mobility

5%

Changes in transportation

10%

Expansion intransportation

publicUsage of freight trains
HouseholdCommerce

Reduction in energy service demand
Reduction in energy service demand

Remarks

5%

Geothermal

Compact city
Freighttransportation
structure

Quantification

10%
7%

Public transportation policy

Heating, cooling, and otherdevices.
Heating, cooling, lighting

25

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

According to BAU(Business as usual) emissions analysis, indicates 80% increase in comparison to2005.
Via improvement in efficiency and lifestyle changes (which reduces demand for energy services) a
16% reduction is shown in comparison to BAU.
Freight transport sector㻠㻡㻜㻜㻜㻌
㻯㻻㻞㻌㻔㼗㼠㻯㻕㻌•㻠㻜㻜㻜㻜㻌
㻟㻡㻜㻜㻜㻌

Passenger transport sector㻟㻜㻜㻜㻜㻌
㻞㻡㻜㻜㻜㻌

Industry（primary and secondary
industry）

㻞㻜㻜㻜㻜㻌
㻝㻡㻜㻜㻜㻌

Commercial（tertiary industry
excluding energy and transport）

㻝㻜㻜㻜㻜㻌
㻡㻜㻜㻜㻌㻜㻌㻮㼍㼟㼑㻌㼥㼑㼍㼞㻌

㻮㼍㼁㻌

㻯㻹㻌

Residential

26

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

The passenger transportation sector displays a 40% reduction in 2030 compared to BAU.

•

Freight transportation displays a 30% reduction in 2030 compared to BAU.

•

The residential sector displays a 20% reduction in 2030 compared to BAU.

•

The commercial sector displays a 17% reduction in 2030 compared to BAU.
CO2 emission (ktC)




EDVH
%D8
&0







Residential
Commercial
Industrial
가정
상업
산업

Passenger
여객교통

화물교통
Freight

27

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model

fts

화물

CO2 (ktC)에너지기기 효율개선Improvement

운송수단변화
Modal sharechange

상업
com

ind

산업

여객

pts

연료변화
Change in energy
use



에너지기기 효율개선Improvement

교통수단변화
Modal sharechange저탄소 생활
Life style change

연료변화
Change in energy
use



에너지기기 효율개선Improvement

에너지기기 효율개선Improvement

행동
Energy에너지절약
saving behavior

가정

res

연료변화,
Change in저탄소에너지
energy use

에너지기기 효율개선Improvement

행동
Energy에너지절약
saving behavior











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28

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Main results

Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

In 2030, the alternative of energy sector accounts for 16%, vegetation and land use change
account for 7.1% in comparison to BAU.

•

Through the land use change in 2030 the level of soil inorganic carbon is reduced compared to2005, and 1,485KtC of greenhouse gases are being emitted into the atmosphere.

•

If land use changes can progressively occur, the accumulated carbon in the vegetation will beemitted into the air, 674KtC to be exact.

•

Due to the climate change, there will be an increasing rate of carbon sequestration by plants.

CO2 (ktC)

Drivingfactors

Soil andvegetationtotalLand usechangeClimatechangeElements

2005

2030

Soil carbon stock changes-

59

Deforestation-

23-2,872-2,916-97-107-2,969-2,941

Stem volume increment (Forest)
Stem volume increment (Park and Grass)

29

The development of Local government-oriented modeland its application
Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis model•

Summary

In 2030, the alternative of energy sector accounts for 16%, vegetation and land use change accountfor 7.1% in comparison to BAU.

•

The carbon intake by vegetation ratio in 2005 is 13.9% compared to the energy sector emissions.
This percentage will decrease to 7.1% compared to BAU.

•

As the rate of vegetation reducing carbon increases, the need for policies increases.

30

Thank you for your attention!

31