Introduction of AIM/CGE Model

Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
The 7th AIM International Workshop; 15-16, March 2002
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan1

Objectives
To evaluate the environmental policies withsimulating the future situation of economy,energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region• to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacificregion (17 regions)• to deal with global trade• to develop 3E model based on economical theory2

AIM/CGE/ASIA• Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive• Program：GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE• Database：GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA and so on…
• Target Year: 2050/2100• Target Region: 26 regions• Target Sector: 24 sectors
3Target Region
1 USA

United States

14 MYS

Malaysia

2 CANCanada

15 PHL

Philippines

3 EUREurope

16 SGP

Singapore

4 JPNJapan

17 THA

Thailand5 AUS

Australia

18 VNM Viet Nam

6 NZL

New Zealand

19 BGD

Bangladesh

7 FSU

Former Soviet Union

20 IND

India

8 CEA

Central EuropeanAssociates

21 LKA

Sri Lanka

9 CHN China

22 ASI

Other Asia

10 HKG Hong Kong

23 LAM Latin America

11 KOR Korea - Republic of

24 MEA Middle East + North Africa

12 TWN Taiwan - Province ofChina

25 SSA

13 IDN

26 ROW Rest of the World

Indonesia

Sub-sahara Africa
4Target Sector
1 GAS

Natural gas works

13 FPR

Food products

2 ELE

Electricity and heat

14 PPP

Paper-pulp-print

3 OIL

Refined oil products

15 LUM Wood and wood-products

4 COL

Coal transformation

16 CNS

5 CRU

Crude oil

17 TWL Textiles-wearing apparel-leather

6 I_S

Iron and steel industry

18 OMF Other manufacturing

7 CRP

Chemical industry

19 AGR

Agricultural products

8 NFM

Non-ferrous metals

20 ATP

Air transport

9 NMM Non-metallic minerals

21 T_TTransport10 TRN

Transport equipment

22 SER

Commercial and public services

11 OME

Other machinery

23 DWE Dwellings,

12 OMN Mining

24 CGD

Construction

Investment composite
5GTAP flows

6

GTAP-EG

E: Electricity
N: Non-electric energy
R: Energy resources
C: Non-energy goods
K: Capital
L: Labor
I: Investment
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Energy Resources
Fossil Fuelenergies

sourcesOil

Oil & Gas Journal
USGS
WEC survey

Gas

EnergyCost

Cumulative use

Coal
Non-Fossil Fuel Hydro, Geothermal WEC survey
PV, WindGIS, WEC survey

Biomass

FAO, GIS, WEC
surveyNuclear

IAEA

EnergyCostenergy use
in a certain year8

Energy Technologies
Naturalgas

Splitting

MethaneProduction

H2

Electrolysis

Refinery（gasoline）
Refinery（distillation）

Oil
Coalgasification

Coal

Methanol
Synthesis(CO)
Methanol
Synthesis
(CO2)

CO

Coal
liquefaction

Gasolinesynthesis

Gaseousfuel demand
GasolinedemandLight liquid
fuel demand
Heavy liquid
fuel demand

Solid fueldemand
Biomass

Biomass
gasification

Shift Reactor(CO to H2)

Biomassliquefaction

Shift Reactor(H2 to CO)

MethanolElectricity
DemandPower generation
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
IGCC

Energy (MTOE)
CO (MTOE)
CO2 (Mｔ-C)
Import or export

Biomass

Energy conversion
CO2 recover

MethanolCO2 disposal

H2Electrolysis

Hydro, geoth.
PVEOR use

CO2(Mt-C)
Chemicalplant

Recovered
CO2Gas well disposal
Aquifer disposal

Electricity（TWh)Wind
NuclearEle. Storage

Ocean disposal

9Reforestation
Recoved CO2 from flue gas
Recoved CO2 IGCC

AIM/CGE in AIM Family
Energy Sector

Water Sector

Waste Sector

AIM/CGE/ASIA（Asia17 regions ）Health Sector

Land Use/Agriculture
Sector10

Future works• To investigate and set energy resources andsupply cost data• To develop 1st version of AIM/CGE model• To evaluate environmental innovative
strategy policies

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