The 25th AIM International Workshop, Tsukuba, Japan

Research Proposal: The Role of Biomass in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Laos
BounEua Khamphilavanh1, Toshihiko Masui2
1Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan; 2National Institute for Environmental Studies➢ Figure 6. illustrates the firewood demand until 2050 which will be slightly increased, and amount of the firewood consumption will be around 2,100 ktone in 2050.
while the demand of charcoal will be more than firewood in the long-term and it will be increased one time comparing between consumption 2014 and 2050
(figure 7).

BackgroundThe concept of low-carbon society scenario (LCS) or low fossil fuel economy is a concept that refers to an economy which has a minimal output of GHG
emissions (in particular, carbon dioxide) into the biosphere. In LCS, the society will adopt a lifestyle that makes more use of energy efficient devices and renewableenergy technologies. Hence the LCS will be a significant and essential option to support implementing the governmental green growth policies and strategies andmaking Lao PDR embark on greener economy and development as it is important to avoid the “grow now and clean up later.
Biomass role in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation: Biomass can play a dual role in greenhouse gas mitigation related to the objectives of the UNFCCC, i.e., as anenergy source to substitute for fossil fuels and as a carbon store. However, compared to the maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs, it appears
that the use of biomass has so far received less attention as a means of mitigating climate change. Modern biomass options offer significant, cost-effective andperpetual opportunities toward meeting emission reduction targets while providing additional ancillary benefits.

Unit: Ktone

Unit: Ktone

2500.0300.0

2000.0250.0

Fuelw. Cons

Char. Cons
Forecast(Char. Cons)

200.0

1500.0y = 22.596x + 684.66
R² = 0.9998

1000.0y = 3.3542x + 46.071
R² = 0.9988

150.0
100.0

500.0
50.0

1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

2050

2047

2044

2041

2038

2035

2032

2029

2026

2023

2020

2017

2014

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

0.0

Figure 6. Fuelwood consumption scenario, until 2050
Source: Energy statistic 2018, MEM, Laos

Figure 1. Final energy consumption, 2000-2015
Source: Economics research institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Lao PDR EBT

1600.01993

0.0

Figure 7. Charcoal consumption scenario, until 2050
Source: Energy statistic 2014, MEM, Laos

Unit: Ktone

1800.08.69%

Based on the above information, Laos is facing the increasing trend of charcoal demand and other energy sources (LPG) in the residential sector. This trend would
strongly impact on the reliability of future energy supply in the sector, along with energy-related CO2 emissions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to (1)examine energy savings and CO2 mitigation potential of policies; (2) estimate biomass energy demand of households and other substitution energy. The CGE modelis proposed as a methodology to forecast biomass demand until 2050.

1990

Biomass production and consumption in Laos: The rural populationaccounted for 67% of the nation’s overall total, of which 59% lived in rural
areas with road access and 8% without road access and they rely heavily on theforest for fuel wood, medicines, houses and shelter. Wood energy is widely use
throughout the country. The forest is already a vital economic resources for Laos,they provide essential contribution to the consumption and income of rural poor
people and conserve biodiversity, soil and water values. The total final energy
consumption (TFEC) of Laos increased at an average annual growth rate of 5%
between 2000-2015. By type of fuel, coal grew the fastest at 28% per year,
followed by electricity at 13.4% per year. Petroleum products and biomass
consumption, which are the most used types of fuel in the country, grew at aslower rate than coal and electricity. The average annual growth rate ofconsumption of petroleum products was 8.5% while biomass consumption grew
only 1.4% per year over 2000-2015 (Figure.1)

Research Objectives:

Fuelw. Prod

Fuelw. Cons

Proposed Methodology

1400.091.31%

1200.0Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model: In general, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is a simulation that connects the abstract generalequilibrium structure with realistic economic data to solve quantitatively for the supply, demand, and price level that support equilibrium across a specified set ofmarkets. CGE model is one of the most useful tools for empirical economic analysis. During the last few decades, the CGE model has been applied to various
countries and to the whole world for not only economic analysis but also energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission analysis. The CGE models are known as atool for analysis of short-term and long-term economic implications of climate change, where price is an important signal that drives agents in an economy. The
fundamental of CGE model is optimization of demand and supply curves of goods and factors of production, which are equilibrium in the markets by flexible prices
adjustment.
Households

1000.0800.0

Feulwood

600.0
Charcoal

400.0
200.00.0

Figure 2. Biomass production in Laos, 2014
Source: Energy statistic 2018, MEM, Laos

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

➢ There are two types of biomass in Laos (firewood and charcoal), which thefirewood is main biomass being used in Laos accounting for 91% (figure 2).
Firewood production and consumption has been steadily increased during
1990 and 2008. However, they straightly decreased after 2008. The reason,
because households prefer to consume charcoal, as the production andconsumption of charcoal rapidly went up since 2008 (figure 3 and 4).

Figure 3. Fuelwood Production and consumption, 1990-2014
Source: Energy statistic 2018, MEM, LaosElectricity

BiogasBiomass

LPG

Fossil fuels

Unit: Ktone

140.0
Char. Prod

Char. Cons

120.0

Devices

Cooking

VehiclesCookingHeating

Cooking

CookingLighting

Vehicles

100.0
80.0

Figure 8. Overview of households’ energy demand

60.0

Expected Outcomes

40.0
20.00.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Figure 4. Charcoal production and consumption, 1990-2014
Source: Energy statistic 2018. MEM, Laos

The aim of this study is to develop the GHG emission scenario in BaU and more efficient biomass use. In this study, in order to mitigate household's
pollution from cooking, we will propose using improved cookstoves as a counter measures. And the other scenario will be proposed for cooking energy
demand (LPG), in this case we assumed that households demand on biomass energy is larger that supply so LPG energy will play a role as substitution
for cooking. Therefore, the expected outcomes are follows:
1. Scenario on BaU emission and efficient biomass use (applying improved cookstoves)Figure 5. Proportion of urbanization growth in 2005 and 2015
Source: Population and housing census 2015, MPI, Laos

➢ Urbanization growth was a reason that households using less firewood.
Households in urban areas they demand more charcoal that it is more clean
energy and easier to use (figure 5). They have been also afforded for LPG.

2. Scenario on household's demand on other energy sources (LPG)