Carbon Emissions fromLand-Use Change
The 5th AIM International WorkshopTsukuba, Japan
24-25 March 2000

Ron Sands
Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Acknowledgements+ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory– Jae Edmonds– Marshall Wise

+ Potsdam Institute for Climate Research– Ferenc Toth
– Marian LeimbachBattelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Why Model Land Use ?
+ Carbon emissions from energy consumption
are not the whole story.
– Carbon emissions from land-use change– Carbon mitigation using biomass fuels– CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture+ Energy and agricultural systems are linked
through biomass fuels.

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Conclusions+ A carbon policy for fossil fuel emissions
provides incentives for production ofcommercial biomass.
+ Increased biomass production releases
carbon from soils.
+ All modeling results are strongly affectedby assumptions on crop productivity
improvements.
Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

MiniCAM Overview+ 11 regions+ 15-year time steps(1990- 2095)+ Partial equilibrium+ Eight markets

Energy Markets
OilNatural Gas
CoalCarbon
Biomass
Grains and Oil Seeds
Animal Products
Forestry Products
Agricultural Markets

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

AgLU Regions+ North America+ Japan, Australia,New Zealand+ Western Europe+ Eastern Europe+ Former Soviet Union

Battelle Memorial Institute+ Latin America+ China and CentrallyPlanned Asia
+ South Asia
+ Other Pacific Asia
+ Africa+ Middle East

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

MiniCAM Energy Markets
Oil
Production

Biomass
Production

Liquids
Refining

Liquids
MarketSynfuelConversion

SolidsMarketSolids
Coal
Production

SynfuelConversion
Natural Gas
MarketN. Gas
Production

Gas
Processing
HydrogenHydrogenMarketNuclear/Fusion

Hydro

Electric Power
Generation

Electricity
MarketSolar

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

AgLU Model Structure
SupplyDemandLocal
Taxes &Subsidies

ClimateTechnology

BiomassPrice

Solution Mechanism

Supply of Crops,
Livestock,
Biomass Energy, &Forest Products

Local
Price

WorldMarketPopulation

IncomeDemand for Crops,
Livestock, &Forest Products

Land Use

Emissions

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Methodology Highlights+ Forest Dynamics– Trees in AgLU grow for 45 years– Previous version of AgLU unstable– Two forest markets (current and future) needed formodel stability+ Land Allocation– Land owners compare economic returns across crops,
biomass, pasture, and future trees– Underlying probability distribution of yields per hectare

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Land Allocation

unmanagedpasturecrops

Battelle Memorial Institutefuturetrees

biomass

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

AgLU Scenarios
0.3% Tech. Change
0.5% Tech. Change
0.7% Tech. Change

Battelle Memorial Institute

Scenario Carbon Prices
ZeroModerateHighABC
DEFGHI

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryPrice of Forest Products
1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0
Current (D)Future (D)normalized
0.8
price
0.6

0.4

0.20.01990

Battelle Memorial Institute

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Scenario Carbon Prices
250

200

150
US$ perton C
1005001990

Battelle Memorial Institute

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (D)1098
Unmanaged

billion hectares

765

Forest4Pasture

32Crop Land

101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

zero carbon price
0.5% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (E)1098Unmanaged

billion hectares

76Biomass

5Forest

4Pasture
32
Crop Land

101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

moderate carbon price
0.5% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (F)1098

Unmanaged

billion hectares

76Biomass
Forest54Pasture
32
Crop Land
101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

high carbon price
0.5% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryPrice of Composite Crop
1.4

1.2

1.00.8High Carbon Price (F)Moderate Carbon Price (E)Zero Carbon Price (D)normalized
price
0.6

0.40.20.01990

Battelle Memorial Institute

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Tg C

High Carbon Price (F)Moderate Carbon Price (E)Zero Carbon Price (D)Historical

600
400
20001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

-200-400

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (C)1098Unmanaged

billion hectares

7Biomass

6Forest54Pasture

32Crop Land
101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095high carbon price
0.3% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (F)1098Unmanaged

billion hectares

76Biomass
Forest54Pasture
32
Crop Land
101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

high carbon price
0.5% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global Land Use (I)1098

Unmanaged

billion hectares

76Biomass

5Forest

4Pasture
32
Crop Land

101990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

high carbon price
0.7% per year technical change

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Model Development+ Demand and supply of agricultural products
from FAO food balance tables+ Dynamics of carbon emissions from landuse change+ CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture+ Water supply and demand

Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory

Conclusions+ A carbon policy for fossil fuel emissions
provides incentives for production ofcommercial biomass.
+ Increased biomass production releases
carbon from soils.
+ All modeling results are strongly affectedby assumptions on crop productivity
improvements.
Battelle Memorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory