The 12th AIM International Workshop
19-20, February 2007
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Development ofAIM/Enduse[Global] model- GHG emissions reductions and costsin Asia regions National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mikiko Kainuma, Junichi Fujino
Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka, Osamu Akashi,
Mizuho Information and Research Institute
Go Hibino, Maho Miyashita
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1Topics
1. Objective
2. Overview of developing Enduse[Global]
3. Scenario outline
4. Results in Asia regions- Global and regional reduction potentials- Marginal abatement costs

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Objective of this study
Background¾ According to recent scenario studies，most of BaU scenarios show increase of
GHG emissions toward the latter half of the 21st century.
¾ Considering socioeconomic and technology level in each country & region,
studies such as burden sharing, CDM potentials, regional and global economic
impacts become major interests in the world.

To evaluate GHG mitigation potentials and estimate
marginal abatement costs in world regions.
- Comparison of region-wise & sector-wise
reduction potentials and reduction costs- Technologies with large reduction potentials 3
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Overview of Enduse[Global]◆

Target Regions : 23 geographical world regions◆Time Horizon : 2000 – 2020
(planning to expand up to 2050)◆

Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 (CFCs, HCFCs)◆

Target Sectors : multiple sectors(Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector /Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture sector /CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F-gas emissions sector )2007/3/20

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Geographical coverage
Depending on what is to be analyzed, there are different approaches for regionalaggregations
In this study, focus major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions in detailRegion1) Japan
2) China
3) India
4) Indonesia5) Korea6) Thailand
7) Other South-east Asia
8) Other South Asia
9) Middle East
10) Australia11) New Zealand
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Code
JPN
CHN
IND
IDN
KOR
THA
XSE
XSA
XME
AUS
NZL

Region12) Canada
13) USA14) EU-15 in Western Europe
15) EU-10 in Eastern Europe16) Russia17) Argentine18) Brazil19) Mexico20) Other Latin America21) South Africa22) Other Africa
23) Rest of the World

CodeCANUSA
XE15
XE10
RUS
ARG
BRZ
MEX
XLM
ZAFXAF
XRW
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Target gas and sectors
Target gas

Target sector

Target service

CO2Powergeneration

Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant,
other powers generation (wind, biomass, PV)

CO2

Industry

Iron and steel, cement, other industries

CO2

Residential &commercial

Cooling, heating, hot-water，cooking，lighting，refrigerator, TV

CO2

Transportation

Passenger vehicle, truck，bus，ship, aircraft，passenger train，freight train (except for pipelinetransport and international transport)

N2O

Industry process Adipic acid, nitric acid, cropland& agriculture

CH4Agriculture &non-agriculture

HFCs,F gas
PFCs, SF6
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Coal mining, gas production, livestock rumination,manure management, paddy field, municipal solidwaste
By-product of HCFC-22, refrigerant，aerosol, foams，solvent, etching，aluminum production, magnesium
6production. Insulation gas, others.

Outline of model simulationz Base year: 2000
z Target year : 2020z Discount rate: 5%/yearz Baseline scenario: technology-frozen case
Assuming the characteristics in 2020 as the case underexisting technology options with the same technical andeconomic characteristics as in 2000

¾Reduction potentials are estimated by consideration of diffusion ofof selected advanced technology.
¾Additional costs are estimated by subtraction of the cost of existing
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7technology
and the one of selected advanced technology in each sector

Estimation of service demands
Current method of estimating future service demand in sectors in residential, commercial, transportation, industry
FutureService DemandService Demandin 2000

Variousstatistics

IEA Energybalance

Change ofService Demandfrom SAGE*

World energy
outlook

SAGE* : USDOE, 2003, Model Documentation Report:
System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets

 in sectors in non-CO2 emission
FutureService DemandService Demandin 2000

Various2007/3/20
statistics

IEA Energybalance

Various statistics

World energy
outlook8

Example of on-going work and issues
General– Refine & investigate data of driving forces in the base year and future.
– Develop rich database of technology optionsz Data preparation in residential and commercial sector– Detailed check of biomass energy consumption– Detailed check of biomass energy technologies– Consideration of relationship between building types and warming
demand– Consideration of technology substitution over energy kind in cooking,hot water and warming– Detailed check of energy technology of hot water and warming inEurope and the United States– Estimation of future driving force not using SAGEz Data preparation in transportation sector– Detailed check of service demand in year 2000
(Check consistency with energy consumption, energy efficiency,
number of vehicle)– Estimation of future service demand by econometric model
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9z2007/3/20
10Rest of the WorldAfrica

Other Latin America

Brazil2,000

Argentinein the year 2020

RussiaEU-15in Western Europe
EU-10in Eastern EuropeUSA

CanadaNew ZealandAustralia

Middle East

OtherSouthAsia
Asia
OtherSouth

OtherSouthEast
OtherSouth-east
Asia Asia

ThailandThailand

Korea
Korea

Indonesia
Indonesia

India
India

Japan
Japan
China
China

Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2)

Reduction potentials
Discount rate = 5%0-100US$/t-CO2<0US$/t-CO2

1,500

1,000

5000Comparison of marginal abatement
costs curves in China
Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

200

CO2, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

Gas high efficiency
industrial furnace

CH4, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

150

F-gas, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

100

CH4&N2O, 2020,DR=5% (EMF21)

Coal bed methane ventilationoxidizer for heat & electricity

CH4, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

50

N2O, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

Inverter control for motor

00

100

200

300

400

F-gas, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

Existing type of coal plant-50
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GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in China

Comparison of marginal abatement
costs curves in India
Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

200

CO2, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])
CH4, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

150

Gas boiler withcombustion control

F-gas, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

Gas high efficiency
industrial furnace

100

CH4&N2O, 2020,DR=5% (EMF21)
CH4, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

50

N2O, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

Existing type of coal plant
00

50

100

150-502007/3/20

200

F-gas, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

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GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in India

Comparison of marginal abatement
costs curves in SA＆SE
Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

200

CO2, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])
CH4, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

150

F-gas, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

100

CH4&N2O, 2020,DR=5% (EMF21)
CH4, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

50

N2O, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

0020

40

60

80

100

120

140-502007/3/20

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in South and South East Asia

F-gas, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

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Comparison of marginal abatement
costs curves in Korea
Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

200

CO2, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

Gas high efficiency
industrial furnace

150

CH4, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])
F-gas, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

100

CH4&N2O, 2020,DR=5% (EMF21)
CH4, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

50

N2O, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

00102030

40-50
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50

F-gas, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

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GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in Korea

Comparison of marginal abatement
costs curves in Japan
Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

200

CO2, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])
CH4, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

150

F-gas, 2020, DR=5%(AIM/Enduse[Global])

100

CH4&N2O, 2020,DR=5% (EMF21)
CH4, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

50

N2O, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

00102030

4050-50
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60

F-gas, 2020, DR=10%(USEPA2006)

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GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in Japan

Scope for further development
Trade cost DB

Trade matrix DB

Global economic model
Goods/service
export/import

Energy resource price

Energy priceGoods/service price23
regions

GDP，POP
Non-CO2 Trend model

Macro-Economic model
EnergydemandResource model

Goods/service
production

Goods/service
production

2F-gas emission

Non-Agriculture(CH /N O)

Agriculture

Transportation

Residential/ Commercial

Industry

Electricity price,
Emission factor

4

Resource mining
Resource priceResource reserve& cost DB

Non-CO2 drivers
DB

Technology option
DB

Energy service demand
Energy conversion

Enduse model
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Thank you

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