Reduction Balance Table(RBT)
Reina Kawase
Kyoto University
10-12, March, 2005
The 10th AIM International Workshop
At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-8506, Tsukuba, Japan1

Outline of RBT
Example of Result
Annual average change rate
Decomposition of CO2 emission (%/y)
CarbonItensity

F4 Nuclear

ChangeAnnualCO2
fromchange rate capturebase year(%/y)
and(%)
storage-69.43-2.34--2.47

0.36

-1.90

1.70

-0.04

F4 RCogN-69.75

-2.36

-2.29

0.17

-1.91

1.70

-0.03

F4 w/oN+Seq-69.26

-2.33

0.21

-0.42

-1.84

1.70-0.03

Scenario-＝ -1.96

Conversion Energy
Efficiency Intensity

Activity Residual2

Decomposition of CO2 emission （１）CarbonIntensity

Energy Intensityof final demandsector

CCS
PE
FEC=⋅⋅⋅⋅ ACSPEFEA= s ⋅ i ⋅ ep ⋅ e f ⋅ A
C : CO2 including CCS, CS : CO2 excluding CCS,
PE : Primary energy, FE : Final energy, A : GDP3

Decomposition of CO2 emission （2）Decomposition of changes in CO2 emission

ΔepΔe fΔCΔsΔi
ΔA=++++Csi
epefA

CO2 capture andstorage

Energyconversion
efficiency

Fuel mix+ residualGDP

Energy intensity
4Japan’s existing scenarios
Japan has the medium-term scenarios towards 2030.
＊Ministry of the Environment・・
Four socio-economic scenarios (based on SRES)＊Ministry of Economic, Trade and Industry
Long-term energy supply and demand outlook(to estimate effects of some measures)＊Citizen's Open Model Projects for Alternative andSustainable Scenarios (NGO)
Towards a sustainable energy society
These scenarios are not the long-term scenarios and are not ascenarios for climate stabilization.
5Introduction• Japan started to develop its long-term climatestabilization scenario toward 2050 in April 2004.
• Many European countries have issued thenational long-term scenarios toward 2050. Theirambitious targets of CO2 emission reduction are
aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today’semission.

6

National long-term scenarios
BaseYearTarget
YearReduction Target
from Base Year

Interministerial Task Forceon Climate Change (MIES)

1990

2050

CO2 : 75%

Enquete Commission

1990

2050

GHG : 80%

Advisory Council on Global
Change (WBGU)
Dept. of Trade and Industry(DTI)
Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution
The National Institute for
Public Health and theEnvironment (RIVM)
Ministry of the Environment

19902050

CO2 : 80%

2000

2050

CO2 : 60%

1997

2050

CO2 : about 60%

1990

2050

GHG : 80%

1990

2050

GHG : 50-60%

1990

2030

CO2 : 20%(10-30)

1990

2050

GHG : about 50%

CountryAgency

FranceGermanyUnited
Kingdom

The
Netherlands
SwedenFinlnadCanada

The National Technology
AgencyNatural Resources Canada

7

Objectives of Research
Objectives:
In order to develop Japan’s long-term climate
stabilization scenario, analyze the long-term climate
stabilization scenario in foreign countries and themedium-term scenarios in Japan by RBT.

Target :Germany, France, United Kingdom, Japan

8Characters of Scenarios
AgencyJapan, APERC
Japan, MOE
Japan, METI

Scenarios
EDSO 2002
A1、A2、B1、B2
Renewables, Saving energy
Nuclear high, low
Economic growth high, low
Combine options
Japan, COMPASS Boiled frog
RevivalSwitchover
w/o EcoFrance, MIES
Eco w/o fuel switching
SupplyGas turb
F4 nuclear
F4 RCogN
F4 Sequestr
F4 w/o N+Seq
F4 H2
Reference
Germany,
Efficient Conversion
EnqueteCommission
RES/EEU Initiative
Fossil-Nuclear Energy Mix
UK, DTIBaseline45、60、70
World Markets45、60、70
Global Sustainability45、60、70

Charactors
BaUBaU
Promotion of renewables or saving energy
Difference rate of nuclear introduction
Difference rate of economic growth
Economic growth high, saving energy, nuclear low
BaU
Achive goals under the present socioeconomic system
Socioeconomic paradigm shift toward a slow societyBaU
Without fuel switching, with improved energy efficiency
Involving a supply-driven response to climate change
40% gas turbines share of electricity production
Increased nuclear development
Combing the use of nuclear, CHP, renewables
Maintaining large-scale fossil fuel use + CCS
Abandoning nuclear power + CCS
Hydrogen production network using nuclear power
Continuation of the current energy policy
Accelerated increase of fossil fuels use efficiency, CCS
Phased out of Nuclear power, promotion of renewables
Construction of new nuclear power stations after 2010
Current values of society remain unchanged
Globalisation , Scant regard for the global environment
Strong collective environmental action

9GDP
450

GDP(2000=100)

360

Almost samerates as historicalchange rateJapanFrance270

Germany180

UnitedKingdom9001960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

10

一次エネルギー/最終エネルギー(2000=100)
Primaryenergy / final energy (2000 = 100)

Primary energy / final energy
140120Effect of increase ofelectricity(generationefficiency 30-40%)

Japan
France100

Germany

80

UnitedKingdom

60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

11

Reduction Balance Table
Δe p
Δe f
ΔC
Δs
Δi
=+++Csi
epef

UK

Germany

FranceScenario

F4 nuclear
F4 RCogN
F4 w/o N+Se
F4 H2
UWE-WI
RRO-WIFNE-WI
BL60
WM60
GS60

Changefrom baseyear (%)

Annualchangerate(%/y)-69.43-69.75-69.26-69.01-75.08-75.25-74.97-59.92-59.92-59.92

-2.34
-2.36
-2.33
-2.32
-2.74
-2.75
-2.73
-1.81
-1.81
-1.81

ΔA+A+ residual

Decomposition of CO2 emission (%/y)
CO2capture
andstorage

-1.96
-1.35
-0.62
-0.28
-0.93

Carbon Conversion Energy
Activity Residual
Itensity Efficiency Intensity

-2.47
-2.29
0.21
-2.65
-0.25
-1.28
-2.26
-0.80
-1.50
-0.23

0.36
0.17
-0.42
0.51
-0.09
-0.15
0.52
0.03
0.16
-0.03

-1.90
-1.91-1.84
-1.84
-2.40
-2.67
-2.33
-2.61
-3.09
-2.81

1.70
1.70
1.70
1.70
1.37
1.37
1.37
2.24
2.99
2.24

-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.05
-0.09
-0.05

120１３２４ (％/y)

Actual reduction rate
Germany

Required CO2 reduction rate

RRO-WI

Fuel switching

UWE-WI

CO2 captureand storage

FranceEnergy intensity

Fuel switching

UnitedKingdom

CO2 reduction rate

BL60

CCS

Fuelswitching

Conversion
Efficiency

Energy intensity

Required CO2 reduction rate

F4 RCogN

GDP growth

GDP growthEnergy intensity

GDP growth

Efficiency

Residual

Energy intensity
13Comparison with historical data
0 .5

●Germany■UnitedKingdomwith CCS
w/o CCS

Long-term annual change rate

▲France

Actual value(Japan)0 .0- 0 .5

Historical （1960－2000）change rate
(World)- 1 .0- 1 .5- 2 .0- 2 .5- 3 .02 times

2-3 times- 3 .5

Carbonintensity

Energyintensity
14Decomposition of carbon intensity(1)CS
CO2 excluding CCS
i=＝PE
Primary energy

Contribution of energy
type to change of CI⎛ ΔCS j ΔPE j ⎞Δi= ∑⎜−⎟ + residuali
PE ⎠j ⎝ CS
Increase of Nuclear・Hydro・Renewables→ Contribution to decrease of CO2 emission
15Decomposition of carbon intensity(2)CoalOilNatural gas

NuclearHydroRenewables

Residual

1960-2000／JPN
B2(MOE)／JPN
Saving energy(METI)／JPN
Combine options(METI)／JPN
F4-RCogN／FRA
F4-w/o N+Seq／FRA
F4-H2／FRA
UWE-WI／GMY
RRO-WI／GMY
FNE-WI／GMY
BL60／UK
WM60／UK
GS60／UK
-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Decomposition of carbon intensity change (%/y)
16Towards Japan’s long-term scenario:
CS(C1-1.84n)
io
ct
dure

Change rate of energy intensity (%/year)

n)
io
ct
dure-0.54-1.75%80-2＊n)
io
ct
dure%
60-1

S:
CCThe combination of
CI and EI must be
set up within theslash zone.

0on(NCI intensity: 0.68-1.98%

S:
CCMaximum CCS: 1.21%

on(NGDP growth: 1.53%(1990-2000)%
60<Condition>-3-3.05-3.25-4-5-4-3-2-10

Change rate of carbon intensity (%/year)

1718