The 17th AIM International Workshop
February 17-19, 2012@Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, JapanThe Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation
to Climate Change in Korea

Dongkun Lee1, Huicheul Jung2, Hogul Kim1, Changkeun Song3 and Jeong Ah Yu3
E-mail : khgghk@snu.ac.kr
1. Seoul National University, Republic of Korea
2. Korea Environment Institute
3. Korea National Institute of Environmental Research※ This study was supported by NIER

ontents
I. Introduction
II. Methods
III. Results
IV. Discussions & Conclusions

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

brought about various changes. Such as …
 a rise in an increase in IPCC advised
effects by climate change.

to minimize negative The Republic of Korea establishedrespond climate change.

to Then the government demanded that.

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

 However, local governments have
 a lack of a lack of.

 Therefore, thehuman resources.
 Also,to local governments.

local governments with funds andof important sectors and Vulnerability assessment is very
governments can use the results to.

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea. Because, localand4

Contents
I. IntroductionII.

ethodsIII. Results

IV. Discussions & Conclusions

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

rganization
Supporter

National InstituteEnvironmental Research

AdviserSeoul National University
7 Sectors

Korea Environment InstituteResearch teamHealthGraduate school of Public Health / SNUForests

College of Agriculture and Life science / SNU

WaterSeoul National University of Science & TechnologyEcosystem

Kyung Hee UniversityAgriculture

National Academy of Agricultural ScienceMarine

National Fisheries Research & Development Institute

DisasterKorea Research Institute For Human Settlements

Delphi research

Konkuk University

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

cope of study
 Spatial & Temporal scope(city).
• Present : 2000 (Average of 1996~2005)• Future : 2020, 2050, 2100(SRES)• Scenario : Period of study Sector : Study consist ofSector

andName of items

Number of items

97, hurricanes, heat waves, infectious diseases…
caused by heavy rain,3(treatment, utilization)…

5, insects…

3

Total, forest vegetation due to drought…

, vulnerability of rice and apples…

1

Vulnerability of4

Vulnerability of…

32
The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

7Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusionsof vulnerability assessment
Selection of sector
Process of assessment

Climate data

Establishment of DataCCSM3 Model*

Downscaling
Regional Climate Model
Climate Data
*CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)

Selection of Variables

Interviews with experts&Literature reviews

Setting weights of variables

Delphi research

Vulnerability Map(UNDP, 2005)

Vulnerability = α × climate exposure + β × sensitivity - γ × adaptation ability(α, β, γ is weight)
The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

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Ⅰ. Introduction

orkshops & We had several

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

eetings
with local government officials and experts.

 Through the workshop, we got

and applied it to our research.

 Also, we hadto communicate each other.

Workshop for local government officials

Internal meeting with researchers

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

9Contents
I. Introduction
II. Methods

III. esults
IV. Discussions & Conclusions

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

xample of results : variables and weight “Delphi research with 56 experts”
 An example of landslide by heavy rains.
Itemnumber ofprecipitation

dates

withoverClimate

daily maximum precipitation(mm)exposuresummer daily precipitation(mm)80mm

of5 days of maximum precipitation(mm)Landslideby heavy

Lists of variables

Variables

average slope of regional forest(degrees)

Sensitivity

rainsarea of coniferous forest(ha)average height of regional forest(m)area of planned forest(ha)government officials per population

Adaptation
abilityrate of managed land(ha)GRDP(trillion won)
financial independence(%)

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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

ssessment of vulnerability(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain Vulnerability is calculated byClimate exposure.

Sensitivity

Adaptation abilityVulnerability =α × climate exposure+ β × sensitivity- γ × adaptation ability(α, β, γ is weight)

Vulnerability
The Vulnerability Assessmentfor Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

ulnerability map(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain The result of vulnerability of. Areas ofto landslide.

of Korea is expected to increase in 2100.
 Thrugh the result, local governments can find importance of adaptation plans.

present2020

2050

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

210013

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

erification of result(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain
are the result of assessment for.

 The right map is the result that was published on the Journal. The result is reliable.
 They showof vulnerability. Therefore, our result is also reliable.

Result of landslide vulnerability(present) Hazard map of landslide(Yun et al., 2009)
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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. MethodsⅢ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

limate exposure map(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rainVariables ofconsist of“Number of dates with over 80mm of precipitation,Daily maximum precipitation(mm),Summer daily precipitation(mm),5 days of maximum precipitation(mm)”.

Climate exposure is expected to increase invulnerability map.

present

2020. It shows similar trend with2050

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

2100
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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

onstruction of reportThe results were divided into 4 items(variables, map, statistical analysis and verification).

Report includes

about present & future vulnerability.

Classification

Contents

1. Table of surrogate variables

Variables lists and Weights

Rank of local governments vulnerability

3. Statistical analysis

Contribution analysis

4. Verification of result

Comparing results with other study

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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

inal report

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

CGIS program The report consists of 5 volumes.
 NIER distributed reports to local governments.

 CCGIS(Climate Change adaptation toolkit based on GIS)
program was distributed.
 This program used to mapping vulnerability.

Menu

Selectingvariables

Map ofVulnerability

The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea

Table forDetails17

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

ebsite for distribution
 Objective : Distribution of program and data.
 Additional effects : Sharing problems, Register of comments by local governments.
 Website : www.snu.ac.kr/ccgis/click

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Contents
I. Introduction
II. Methods
III. Results

IV. iscussions & onclusions

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

esults of quantitative methods : Prediction of distribution of forest types (KEI).

 Prediction of distribution of forest types with MaxEnt model in other study.
and
Present

FutureDistribution of coniferous

can be achieved.
Present

FutureDistribution of mixed forest

Present

FutureDistribution of deciduous▶ Consideration about quantative methods.
▶ Establishment of database related to climate change.
※ MaxEnt Model : One of the most commonly used methods for inferring species distributions from occurrence data.
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Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussions & Conclusions

ignificance of study First attemptAssess vulnerability with the entire land of Korea.
Assess 7 sectors which is important to respond to climate change.
 Supporting local governments
Local governments can utilize the results to decide the priority of vulnerable sector and distribute
financial assistance.
 Reflection of local features
 This study used descriptive methods which is utilizing surrogate variables. Thus, local
governments can modify the data which is used to vulnerability assessment.

uture study Higher resolution : the unit of assessment is city and county. For that reason we achieved the resultof a low-resolution. Thus, we need to assess more specific area.

 Establishment of data : we don’t have enough data about entire land of republic of Korea. Therefore
government of Korea should establish database related to climate change.
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The 17th AIM International WorkshopFebruary 17-19, 2012@Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Japanhanks for your listening
The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation toClimate Change in Korea

Dongkun Lee1, Hogul Kim1, Changkeun Song2 and Jeong A Yu2
khgghk@snu.ac.kr
1. Seoul National University, Republic of Korea
2. Korea National Institute of Environmental ResearchAppendix23

 Definition of surrogate variables
 To assess vulnerability, we used the surrogate variables which is classified as“climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation ability”.
 These variables are defined like below.
Surrogate Variables
climate exposure
sensitivity
adaptation ability

Definition
climate change impact, such as, temperature and precipitation
climate change impact range or vulnerability impact, such as, slope, soil condition
climate change impact reduction, such as, financial support and supporters

 We used this formula to calculate vulnerability.
 The formula refers to UNDP(2005).

Vulnerability = α × climate exposure + β × sensitivity - γ × adaptation ability(α, β, γ is weight)
The Vulnerability Assessment for Local Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea24

 Statistical analysis(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain

Vulnerability

JJ JN GW GN BS CB JB US GJ DG CN DJ IC GG SU

Name of local governments

 A ranking graph was created to compare vulnerability among local governments.
 Local governments can get an information about the priority of vulnerable sector or item by getting
relative vulnerability.
 Local governments can utilize this data to request and distribute budget.
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 Statistical analysis(example) : vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain
Vulnerability of 232 local governments
 A radial graph was created to identify thecontribution of variables.
 Through the radial graph, we can get an
information about contribution of certain
variables.
Vulnerability

Climate exposure This graph shows average vulnerability of 232
local governments. We can also search an
information about certain local government byusing CCGIS.
 Local governments can find out vulnerable
variables, therefore they can utilize this graphto establish adaptation plans.

Sensitivity

Adaptation ability

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 Comparison with other study : Assessment of vulnerability in Gyeonggi province

List of variables

Map of vulnerability to climate change Research institute in Gyeonggi province(GRI) performed vulnerability assessment in 2009.

 They didn’t select specific sector and assessed overall vulnerability to climate change.
 GRI want to assess specific sector and we are supporting assessment of forest sector from last year.

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