The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

CO2 Emission Reduction fromthe Power Sector in Selected Asian Countries

Ram M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of TechnologyThailandAITOverview of Presentationz ARRPEEC power sector project.
z Status of power sector CO2 emission during 1980-1997.
z Least cost generation options without CO2 emission

targets.
z Least cost generation options under CO2 emission
targets.
z Marginal cost of CO2 mitigation in selected countries.
z Implications on local/regional environmental emissionsz Conclusions

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanARRPEEC -- Power Sector Project: Objectivesz

Assessment of least cost supply-side options for mitigating GHG andother harmful emissions subject to emission reduction targetsz

Identification of some CDM projects and assessment of their GHG andother harmful emissions mitigation potentialz

Assessment of environmental and utility planning implications ofIndependent Power Producers (IPP) and Decentralized Power
Generation (DPG)

Countries Covered:
Yunan (China), NREB (India), Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Share of Power Sector CO2 Emissions(1990-1999)
5045
40
35302520
15
1050WorldDOEC

Asiamna
VietThailanda
SriL
ankdiaIndonesia

19901999

InChinaPercent

Share of the Power Sector C O 2 Em ission

Power sector’s share in total CO2 emission: 12% in Sri Lanka toover 42% in China and Indiaz Increase in the sector’s share in China, India, Indonesia, SriLanka.
z Decrease in the share in Thailand and Vietnam.
zAITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

AIT0.00Gas1992

1990

1988

198619841996

Coal

1996

Oil

1994

Vietnam

1994

1992

10Oil

1990

20

8
7
6
54
3
2
10
1982

040

1988

Thailand

1980

100

CO2 Emissions (million ton)

200

CO2 Emissions (million ton)

1996

1994

Coal

Gas

1986

Coal

1992

Oil

50

1984

30

1990

Gas

1982

Oil

1988

India

1980

40

1996

0.2Gas

1994

0.4
50

1992

0.660

1990

0.8
1986

500

1988

1.01986

0300

1984

200

1982

400
400

1984

600

1980

Coal
CO2 emission (million tons)

Oil

1982

Sri Lanka
CO2 Emissions (million ton)

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

China

1980

1996

1994

Oil

1992

1.2

1990

1.4
1986

Gas

1988

800

1984

1200

1986

1982

1980

CO2 emission (million tons)
1000

1984

1982

1980

CO2 Emissions (million ton)

CO2 Emission from the Power Sector(1980-1997), 106 tons
60

Indonesia

30

Coal

20

100

The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Least-cost Generation Planning Model
Supply-side
DataElectricity
DemandDemand-side
Data

Minimize: Total System Costs(capital + O&M +Fuel + DSM Cost)

Electricity Generation
Planning Model

Emissionsconstraints

Subject to:• Power demand constraints

Optimal expansion
plan• Annual energy constraints• Hydro-energy constraints

Capacity Mix

Generation Mix/FuelMix

Total Cost• Reliability constraints• Fuel or resource availability
constraints

Emission Factors• Emission constraints
CO2, SO2 and NOxEmissions

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Candidate Generation Technologies
Generation Technology Options
Region/Countries

Conventional Thermal

Cleaner and Efficient

Renewable

Yunan -China

Conventional Coal

PFBC

Geothermal, Hydro
Solar PV, Wind

NREB -India

Conventional Coal, Nuclear

Combined Cycle, PFBC,IGCC

BIGCC, Wind,
Hydro

Indonesia

Conventional Coal,
Combustion Turbine

PFBC

Geothermal,
Minihydro

Sri Lanka

Conventional Coal and Oil,
Diesel, Combustion Turbine

Combined Cycle, PFBC,
IGCC

Wind, Minihydro,Dendro, Hydro

ThailandConventional Coal and Oil,
Combustion Turbine,

Combined Cycle, PFBC,
IGCC

Hydro

Vietnam

Conventional Coal and Oil,
Nuclear

PFBC, Combined Cycle

Hydro

Note:
BIGCC = Biomass Gassification Combined Cycle, PFBC = Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion,
IGCC = Integrated Gassification Combined Cycle

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Least Cost Generation Options
Cost effective generation technologies without CO2 emission reduction targets
Region/Country

Generation Technology

Yunan -- China

Conventional Coal, Hydro

NREB -- India

Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle, Nuclear, PFBC,
IGCC, Hydro, Wind

Indonesia

Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle

Sri Lanka

Conventional Coal, Diesel,
Combustion Turbine

ThailandConventional Coal, Combined Cycle

Vietnam

Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle, Hydroz

AIT

Under the BAU scenario (i.e.without a CO2 emission reductiontarget), cleaner, energy efficient and non-hydro renewableelectricity generation technologies are not found cost effective inthe selected countries except NREB (India).
The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanCO2 Emission during 2003-2017, 106 tons350

Yunan -- China

NREB - India

25300
Coal
20
CO2 Emissions(million tons)

CO2 Emissions(million tons)

250

151002003

z

Coal

200
150
100

5z

Gas

5002005

200720092011

2013

2015

2017

2003

2005

200720092011

2013

2015

2017

Yunan Province (China): The power sector CO2 emission in 2017 would be 1.6 times that in2003.
NREB (India): CO2 emission in 2017 would be 2.78 times that in 2003. Increase in share ofcoal based generation in the power sector CO2 emission from 70% in 2003 to 90% in 2017.

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanCO2 Emission during 2003-2017, 106 tons
(contd.)VietnamThailand

50250

Gas

Gas
20040

Oil

Coal
CO2 Emissions(million tons)

CO2 Emission(million tons)

Coal
150

Lignite

100zz

30
20
1050

02003

Oil02005

20072009

20112013

2015

2017

2003

2005

20072009

20112013

2015

2017

Thailand: The CO2 emission from the power sector in 2017 would be 2.85 times that in2003. The contribution of coal based generation in CO2 emission would increase from 25%
in 2003 to 84% in 2017.
Vietnam: The CO2 emission from the power sector in 2017 would be 2.34 time that of 2003.
The contribution of coal based generation in CO2 emission would increase from 70% in
2003 to 82% in 2010 and would decrease to 61% in 2017.

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanCO2 Emission Intensity during 2003-2017(kg CO2/kWh)
1.1

CO2 Emission Intensity (kg/kWh)

1.0

0.9

Yunan (China)
NREB (India)
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam

0.8

0.7

0.6
2003

zAIT

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

CO2 intensity to increase in NREB (India), Thailand and Sri Lanka and decrease in
Yunan (China)
The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Least-Cost Options at Selected CO2 Emission Targets
Cost-Effective Cleaner/Energy Efficient and Renewable Technologieszzzzz

Yunan (China): IGCC, PFBC, Wind, Geo-thermal and Solar options selected
at CO2 reduction target of not less than 5%.
NREB (India): IGCC, PFBC and Nuclear selected even without CO2
reduction target; BIGCC selected at 5% and higher targets.
Indonesia:
Geo-thermal selected even without CO2 reduction targets.
Sri Lanka:
Wind selected at 10% and higher targets; Dendro at 20% target
Thailand:Emission targets met by higher share of combined cycleplants;
IGCC selected only at 20% reduction target.

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan

Marginal Abatement Costs,$/ton C at 1998 prices
CO2 Emission Reduction Targets
Country5%

10%15%20%

Yunan -- China

11.8

14.3

17.6

NA

NREB – India

6.6

12.5

19.7

NAIndonesia

11.0

13.8

NA52.6

Sri Lanka

NA

17.9

NA

23.2

Thailand

15.7

20.7

NA

43.0

Ranges of MAC values:z 6.6 to 15.7 $/ton of Carbon at 5% reduction target
z 12.5 to 20.7 $/ton of Carbon at 10% reduction target
z 23.2 to 52.6 $/ton of Carbon at 20% reduction target
Note:
NA = not applicable

AIT

Marginal abatement costs are expressed in 1998 US $.
The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanCO2 Mitigation (“Supply”) Curves
55

55
Yunan -- China

50

NREB -- India

50

ThailandSri Lanka
45
Abatement cost ($/ton C)

Abatement cost ($/ton C)

4540353025
2015Indonesia

403530252015

10

10

50

102030

40

50

60

5150

CO2 Reduction (million tons)

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

CO2 Reduction (million tons)

z Cost of CO2 reduction relatively low in Yunan (China) and NREB (India).
z CO2 emission reduction during 2003-2017, from Yunan (China), NREB (India),

Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand:zz

1.3 billion tons at MAC of 20 $/ton C or lower.
1.6 billion tons at MAC of 40 $/ton C or lower.

z Estimates of Full Global Trading price of carbon ranges from 22 to 88 $/ton C

AIT[Ellerman (1998), Painuly (2001)]
The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan550

SO2 and NOx Emission Reductions
SO2 Reduction
Yunan (China)
NREB (India)

60

40%
Yunan (China)
NREB (India)

Sri LankaThailand
Vietnam40Sri LankaThailand

30%
NOx Reduction

50SO2 Reduction (%)

NOx Reduction

30Vietnam
20%

2010%

100%

00%

5%

10%
CO2 reduction target

15%

20%0%

5%

10%

15%

CO2 emis s ion reduction target

z Disproportionately large % reduction in SO2 emission (over 30%) to take place at

15% CO2 emission reduction target in Yunan (China), NREB (India) and Thailand.
z NOx reduction by 36% at 15% CO2 reduction target in Yunan (China).

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan20%

Conclusions
zAt present costs, cleaner/energy efficient and renewable options are
not cost effective under the BAU case, except in NREB (India).

z

Clean coal technologies would be cost effective at 5% CO2 reduction
target in Yunan (China) and at BAU case in NREB (India).

z

1.3 billion tons of CO2 emission could be cost effectively reduced
during 2003-2017 from power generation in Yunan (China), NREB(India), Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand at marginal abatement
cost of not more than 20 $/ton C (which less than the estimate Full
Global Trading price of 22-88 $/ton C).

z

Disproportionately large percentage reduction in SO2 emission (I.e.,over 30%), would take place at 15% CO2 emission reduction target
in Yunan (China), NREB (India) and Thailand.

AITThe 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, JapanThank YouAIT

The 7th AIM International Workshop, 15-17 March 2002, Japan