Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Project: India Report

Presented byP R Shukla
Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005

Presentation Agenda

1.

2.

3.

Strategic Database Development•Local Innovations (Examples)•

Database Preparation•

Indian SDB

AIM/CGE Model Development•

Data Development•

Indian Scenarios•

Model Modification•

Results

Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE Project

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Strategic Data Base (SDB)
••
•
•
•

Environmental Innovations in India (Examples)
Narrative Description
Quantitative Data Card
Socio Economic Scenarios
Model Applications

Local Environmental Innovation (Example)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Vermiculture Compost•

Earthworms maintain the fertility of the soil and ward off harmful pests•

No chemical fertilizers and pesticides required•

The know-how popularly known as "Surface Bed Method" has penetrated to over 1,00,000
farmers and 500 entrepreneurs

Local Environmental Innovation (Example)

Bio-organic soil enricher• Made from biodegradable organic substances
through microbial conversion process• Results in higher yield• Improvement in soil aeration and water
holding capacity• Increased disease resistance and tolerance

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Preparation of Narrative Description Cards

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Collect Information about
innovations and prepare
narrative description cards• Literature searching• Interview with experts
Format• Present: Free
• Future: Free form & AccessNarrative Description Card Example

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Narrative Description Card
Sales Campaign for Electric Vehicle

Reva: India’s First Electric Car
Reva is the India’s first zero-polluting electric vehicle heralds a newera of non-polluting, cost effective, quiet city transportation - A boon
for city commuters. This elegant, light-yet rugged, two-door sedan
comfortably seats 4 people. It has a range of 80 kilometers in stopand-go city driving, and a top speed of 65 km/h. Reva runs 80 Km
on a single charge of 9 units of electricity. The cost of the vehicle isapproximately $ 7000.
Eco-Friendly
Being an Electric Vehicle, Reva is zero polluting and noiseless. It does not require
frequent oil changes. Moreover Reva has high recyclable content
High on Technology
Two computers and the state-of-the-art electronics in the Reva provide an efficientenergy management system with advanced computerized vehicle diagnostics. The
regenerative braking in the Reva recovers useful electricity by putting it back into thebatteries. Regenerative braking lets the motor act as a generator, converting thevehicle's momentum into electricity….

From narrative description to data card

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Translate narrative description tosystematic and quantitative data card
Capacity• 4 persons• Top Speed: 65Km/h
Energy Needed• 9KWh for 80 Km run
Emissions• No direct Emissions

Quantitative Data Card

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Storylines and Socio-economic scenarios

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Prepare storylines andsocio-economic scenarios
Write Storyline DescriptionProjections• Workout Scenario Numbers
Application toSelected Sector

Description of Indian Storyline

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

IB1 scenario
In the IB1 scenario, the Indian economy is characterized by a shift towards a high level ofenvironmental and social consciousness. There is an increased emphasis on environmental
damage prevention and long‐term sustainability of socio‐economic developmental actions
on the part of government, business, media and the public. Heightened environmental
consciousness manifests itself in the positive impacts on natural resource use.
Technological change plays an important role.
Economic development is balanced and efforts to achieve equitable income distribution areeffective. Efficiency improvement measures, low and carbon free technologies and cleaner
fuels penetrate faster and infrastructure to facilitate these has to be built. Technologicalprogress is accelerated, both in terms of indigenous efficiency improvements and earlier
and higher penetration of advanced clean technologies. The scenario assumes moreemphasis on development of renewable technologies. …….

Projections Corresponding to Storylines

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

2010
GeneralTransport

IA1IA2

IB1

IB2

96

75

Economic Growth Rate

% per year

Population

Million

1157

1192

1157

1183

Cars

BPKM

413.5

376.5

376.5

322.8

BusBPKM

3522.33300.03340.23011.7

Total road passenger

BPKM

4244.93969.54004.73590.0

Heavy commercial vehicles

BTKM

1251.51173.6

1099.01036.2

Light commercial vehicles

BTKM

64.7

59.4

56.0

50.2

Total road freight

BTKM

1316.2

1233.01155.01086.4

Rail passenger

BPKM

659.4

628.0

643.0

588.3

Rail freight

BTKM

541.7

500.0

520.0

481.0

Air passenger

BPKM

45.3

44.0

42.7

38.3

Ship freight

BTKM

15.3

14.6

15.0

13.3

Simulate Environment Pressures

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Simulate future environmental pressuresand analyze effect of strategies
Affected Model Parameters
Identify Extent of EffectSuitable modificationsin the model parameters

Passenger Transport Scenarios

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian SDB

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/CGE Model Development for India••••

Data Development
Indian Scenarios
Model ModificationResultsIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Data Development• Indian I/O Table (CSO, 1995)– Make Matrix– Use Matrix– Fixed Capital Formation Matrix• Energy Balance Table• Emission Coefficients

115 Commodities
35

Sectors

6

Energy Commodities

6

Energy Sectors

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Scenarios•Reference (Initial 6% annual growth)•High economic growth (Initial 9% annual growth)•Low economic growth (Initial 5% annual growth)•Efficiency improvement (Initial 3% annual improvement)Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Reference Case Results

7Index (2000=1) .

6

GDP

5Energy4

Carbon

3
2
10
2000

2005

2010

2015
Years

2020

2025

2030

GDP

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

25000
High Growth
20000

Rs. Billion

Reference
15000
Low Growth
10000

5000

02000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Emissions

3500

High Growth

3000

Reference

CO 2 (Mt)

2500

Energy Eff.
2000

Low Growth
1500

1000

50002000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Intensity of GDP

CO2 Intensity: Ton/Thousand Rs. (1995)
0.30

0.25

CO 2 Intensity

High Growth
0.20

Low Growth

Reference
Energy Eff.

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

APEIS & CAPaBLE Project Interface

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CAPaBLE Project
Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysis
of Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities

APEIS Session was held at the CAPaBLE
Workshop at AIT, Bangkok