Assessment of long-term mitigation scenarios in Chinese agriculture
11,2*34156
1,2,7,89Yizhi Deng , Jing-Yu Liu , Wei Xie , Xiaomuzi Liu , Jian Lv , Runsen Zhang , Wenchao Wu , Yong Geng, Julien Boulange

1 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, P. R. China; 2 Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security, P. R.
China; 3 School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, P. R. China; 4 École Polytechnique, France; 5 Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, TokyoUniversity, Japan; 6 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), Japan; 7 School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong
University, P. R. China; 8 School of Business, Shandong University, P. R. China; 9 Graduate School of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Japan

Introduction

Table 1 Applicable GHG mitigation measures for Chinese agriculture

China is a large agricultural country, as well as a big emitter ofgreenhouse gases. China‘s ’dual carbon‘ goal seeks to achieve peak CO2a±emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.
In this study, we developed a bottom-up agricultural technology
optimization model (ATOM) for GHG mitigation, which aimed tominimize the total cost based on inventories of agricultural GHG
emissions and mitigation measures. The model was employed toquantify China's agricultural GHG mitigation potentials under various
socioeconomic scenarios and carbon price assumptions.

Methodology
First, we established inventories of agricultural GHG emissions (based on
the Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas
Inventories) and mitigation measures (screened by investigating
technical potentials, prospects, and impacts on agricultural production).
In the second step, the ATOM was developed based on these inventories
and then employed to quantify China's agricultural GHG mitigation
potentials by 2060. Under a series of socioeconomic scenarios andcarbon price assumptions, the model simulated the pathways ofagricultural GHG mitigation in China. Additionally, only GHG emissions

C means GHG mitigation measures for crop production and L for livestock production

Results

Figure 4 Agricultural GHG
mitigation potentials indifferent regions.
a) China’s provincial
agricultural GHG emissions
and abatement rate in
2060 under the SSP2-MCP
scenario;b) Proportion of China’s
provincial agricultural GHG
emission reductions in
2060 under the SSP2-MCP
scenario.

Negative-cost
mitigation
measures canhelp achieve
considerable GHG
mitigation, but
greater emission
reductions areachievable withcarbon pricing.

from food-related agricultural production activities were considered.
Figure 2 GHG emissions in Chinese agriculture from 2006 to 2060bConclusions• Chinese agriculture possesses considerable potential for GHG mitigation in theory.
But the implementation of agricultural GHG mitigation measures in China may behindered by socioeconomic obstacles. The Chinese government should immediately
adopt countermeasures to promote the diffusion of feasible mitigation measures.

The maximum GHG
mitigation potential will be
481.6 MtCO2-eq in 2060,
with 40.7% achieved bynegative-cost measuresand 72.2% achievable at aunit abatement cost below
600 CNY tCO2-eq-1.

Figure 1 Schematic structure of ATOM

Figure 3 Marginal abatement cost curve for Chinese
agriculture in 2060 based on the SSP2 scenario assumptions.

• Existing agricultural GHG mitigation measures are insufficient to achieve carbon
neutrality in Chinese agriculture by 2060. The government should aim to achieve
more GHG mitigation in other sectors or on the demand side.
• There is significant heterogeneity in the mitigation potential within Chineseagriculture. The government should plan and guide the implementation ofagricultural GHG mitigation measures depending on the specific circumstances.