NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENTThe Seventh AIM International Workshop Program
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, 15-17 March 2002

NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kyoto University
CONTENTS
1. Roadmap of the AIM family
AIM/Emission
AIM/Impact
Other AIM models
2. AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
3. Summary

Focuses of modeling activity in year
2001-2002• Organization, Dissemination of developedmodel for national and regional climate
action plans as well as wider
comprehensive environmental policy ⇒ AIM/ COUNTRY，AIM/DATABASE• Extension of modeling perspectives fromclimate policy to more wider points of view,and Increasing the applicability to various
policy processes ⇒ from AIM/IMPACT to
AIM/ECOSYSTEM

AIM/TOPDOWN
AIM/CGE/GLOBAL
AIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM-COUNTRY
models

AIM/TREND

AIM/Inventory
Activity

AIM/ENDUSEHouseholdproduction
approach

AIM/IMPACT
Global version
Country version

AIM/LOCAL
ALICE
AIM-CMB
AIM-SUBsidy

AIM/Database
AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
AIM next
generation model

AIM/MATERIAL
AIM/CLIMATE

Bottom-up approach ofdisaggregated environmental
technologies

AIM/Emission

Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/ECOSYSTEM
AIM/LAND
AIM/WATER
AIM/AGRI
AIM/VEG
AIM/HEALTH
Etc.
AIM/Impact

Roadmap of the AIM familyAIM/Emission family
Model
AIM/ENDUSE

AIM/LOCAL

Situation
Obsolete(FirstGeneration)
Successor of
AIM/ENDUSE,
OperatingObject
National CO2 reduction
programCharacteristics
Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
Constant lifetime cohort, Optimum subsidy
optionLinkage of CO2, SO2, NO2, Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
SPM reduction program, simple cohort structure, coupling with air
pollutant emission inventories
National/Regional scale,
ALICE:Ancillary-effects estimating model for
Coupling reduction
local governments to improve theirprogram with Emission
comprehensive environment
Inventory
AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS

Implementation
Fortran program named"engd"
MS access interface andGAMS main program,
Supported with
AIM/Database

Device combined version (CMB): Able to treat
combined input and output services, e.g. Powergeneration and secondary use of electricity
Subsidy version (SUB) : optimum subsidy toreduce gas emission

AIM/TOPDOWN

Obsolete but
Operating(FirstGeneration)

Long-term GHG emission Based on the ASF/ER model, Backcasting ability Fortran program
projections from the point from emission and concentration targets,
Coupling with the enduse model in near-termof energy supply andprojection
demand equilibrium

AIM/CGE/GLOBAL

OperatingEconomic assessment of
global GHG reduction,
EMF14/19 comparativestudy

Global multi-regional CGE model with energy
resource sectors and interface to bottom-up
model

AIM/CGE/ASIA

Developing

Environmental andEconomic assessment of
Global Environmental
Policy, focuses on AsiaPacific region

Global multi-regional CGE model with economic GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP5,
IEA energy balance
goods/bads, natural resource sectors andtable, Commodity
interface to bottom-up modelstatistics, Detailed
database of naturalresources
AIM/Database

AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS

GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP4,IEA energy balance table

AIM/TOPDOWN
AIM/CGE/GLOBAL
AIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM-COUNTRY
models

AIM/TREND

AIM/Inventory
Activity

AIM/ENDUSEHouseholdproduction
approach

AIM/IMPACT
Global version
Country version

AIM/LOCAL
ALICE
AIM-CMB
AIM-SUBsidy

AIM/Database
AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
AIM next
generation model

AIM/MATERIAL
AIM/CLIMATE

Bottom-up approach ofdisaggregated environmental
technologies

AIM/Emission

Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/ECOSYSTEM
AIM/LAND
AIM/WATER
AIM/AGRI
AIM/VEG
AIM/HEALTH
Etc.
AIM/Impact

Roadmap of the AIM familyAIM/Impact family
Model
AIM/IMPACT

Situation

ObjectClimate change impact
assessment with detailed
process model, surface watercycle, crop productivity,
vegetation, healthCharacteristics
Grid or basin level
hydrological model, cropmodel, vegetation model,
malaria model. Interface with
GCM/RegCM output

Implementation

Global/Regional version
Operating andDeveloping(FirstGeneration)
Developing

AIM/ECOSYSTEM Developing

Global assessment
Linkage with World crop trade
model
Country/Local version
Country impact assessment
Packaged and Disseminateversion of global version
AIM-COUNTRYAssembly of rather
Assessment of global
environmental changes and their independent modules
LAND, WATER,
counter-measures
AGRI, ENV,HEALTH, VEG,
Exploratory models for next
generation AIM activities

GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C

IDRISI,FORTRAN,C, VB,
AIM/Database
GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C,GAMS

AIM/TOPDOWN
AIM/CGE/GLOBAL
AIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM-COUNTRY
models

AIM/TREND

AIM/Inventory
Activity

AIM/ENDUSEHouseholdproduction
approach

AIM/IMPACT
Global version
Country version

AIM/LOCAL
ALICE
AIM-CMB
AIM-SUBsidy

AIM/Database
AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
AIM next
generation model

AIM/MATERIAL
AIM/CLIMATE

Bottom-up approach ofdisaggregated environmental
technologies

AIM/Emission

Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/ECOSYSTEM
AIM/LAND
AIM/WATER
AIM/AGRI
AIM/VEG
AIM/HEALTH
Etc.
AIM/Impact

Roadmap of the AIM familyOther Models which enlarge thePerspectives of AIM activity
Model

Situation

ObjectCharacteristics

Implementation

AIM/MATERIAL(RECYCLE)

Operating ,Applying toJapan, Indiaand China

Economic assessment of One country CGE GAMS/MPSGE
nation environmental
model with material MS ACCESSMS EXCEL
policy, focused on CO2 balance andinterface toreduction and wasteenvironmental
recyclingtechnology model
APEIS

AIM/TREND

Operating,Distributing

Communicating platform Country
econometricfor constructing Asiamodel. Assembly
Pacific regional
environmental outlook, of Energy, Water,
Agriculture andother modules
ECO-ASIA, APEIS,
GEO3,AIM-COUNTRY

Visual Basic for MS
Excel, National andInternational
statistics
AIM/Database

Prospect
Coupling withbottomup
engineeringmodels, Couplingwith
Waste/GHG/Water
balances andHouseholdproduction
approach
Developing to an
econometrical tool
(ATPL/ATML) in
AIM/Database andAIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM/TOPDOWN
AIM/CGE/GLOBAL
AIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM-COUNTRYmodels

AIM/TREND

AIM/Inventory
Activity

AIM/ENDUSEHouseholdproduction
approach

AIM/IMPACT
Global version
Country version

AIM/LOCAL
ALICE
AIM-CMB
AIM-SUBsidy

AIM/Database
AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
AIM next
generation model

AIM/MATERIAL
AIM/CLIMATE

Bottom-up approach ofdisaggregated environmental
technologies

AIM/Emission

Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/ECOSYSTEM
AIM/LAND
AIM/WATER
AIM/AGRI
AIM/VEG
AIM/HEALTH
Etc.
AIM/Impact

Roadmap of the AIM familyAIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
Overview
Approach： Soft merge of a Top-down (Story-line + Macroeconomic )model and Bottom-up ( technology models, mechanistic models,case studies) approach

Objects: Integrated Assessment of Economic and Sustainable
Development with Environmental protection, Adaptation toclimate change
Scale : Country ( Asia and Pacific) , Provincial ( China and India ),Regional ( Rest of the World )Present ( 1971-2000), Near future (2021-2050), Long-term (20712100), Yearly / Daily

Modules of AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEMCGE (Economic market: Top down, Productions, Capitals, Income, Trades)
ENERGY (Energy technology and resource: bottom-up process type,Resource,Supply and consumption)
LAND (Land-use: Spatially distributed, Land-use allocation, degradation, GHGemission and sink)
HYDRO (Hydrology : spatially distributed, ET, Soil moisture, Snow depth,Drought index VEG (Vegetation: Spatially distributed, Potential vegetation,Dynamic vegetation)
WATER ( Water Supply and Demand: Spatially distributed, Intake, Consumption,
Water infrastructure)
AGRI (Foods and Agriculture: bottom-up process type, spatially distributed,Agricultural production potential, Crops / Livestock / Wood Demand andSupply )ENV (Environmental Pressure and counter-measure : spatially distributed ,GHGs, Atmospheric and water pollutants, Wastes)
POP (population: Total, Age distribution, Life length, TFR etc.)
HEALTH ( Health impacts : Health impact models, Environmental burden ofdisease, Health Service)AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM
MODULES AND THEIR LINKSHEALTH
Health impacts ofEnvironmental
ChangeENERGY
Energytechnology andresources

AIM/EMISSION

AIM/CLIMATEPOP
Population, Fertility and Mobility

CLIMATE
Radiation,
Energy balance,
Temperature andSea level rise

ENV
Environmental Pressure
and counter-measure

CYCLE
Chemistry ofGHGs

CGE

Energy andcarbon budgetof Ocean

Supply and demand equilibrium
Of goods, energy, water, land and labor

AGRI

WATER

Production andDemand

Supply infrastructures
demand

HYDRO
AIM/ECOSYSTEM

Surface water balance
Routing module

OCEAN

LAND
Land-use allocation
and GHGs emission

VEG

Vegetation dynamics

The CGE module(Extension of AIM/CGE/GLOBAL,ASIA)•Multi-regional, multi sector CGE model•Sectors: Goods and service production, Resource
supply, Consumers, Public service•Markets : Capital/Resources: Goods, Capital,Energy, Water, Lands•Products (Goods/Bads): Industrial andAgricultural products, Energy, Water,
Pollutants, Wastes•Sequential equilibrium•Hybrid linkage with bottom-up modules

Coupling of the CGE and bottomup technology based modules•Energy Supply, transformation and demands(Technology)←ENERGY•Household (Final consumption, Labor supply,Life-style, Time budget, Education)←POP, WATER•Environmental Services (Air and water loads
reduction technology←ENV•Crop production•Water supply and demand•Land-use allocation←LAND←WATER←LAND

The ENERGY (energytechnology) module
••
•
•
•
•

Country (regional) baseBased on AIM/LOCAL GAMS program
Stylized Industrial and Household Processes
Including default devices listsIncluding the Stackelberg Problem
Extension togeneralized processdescription of Energyand Materials( mergingwith AIM/MATERIAL)

Stylized Energy
Processes in theENERGY module(Transformationsector)

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module(Iron and Steel Sector)
Electric arc

Scrap ironfurnace
Direct［電気炉］

reduction fur.
Iron ore［直接還元炉］

Hearth(海綿鉄）furnace［平炉］

Smelting
reduction fur.
Sintering
furnace［焼結炉］

Coking Coal

Coke ov ens［コークス炉］［溶融還元炉］

Sinter(焼結鉱）

Coke ov encoke(コークス）

Blast furnace

Pig iron

［高炉］

(銑鉄）

Basic oxygen
furnace［転炉］

Furnace gas(炉ガス）

Electiricty

Flow control
Fules

Fuels forcombustion
Heat

Crude steel

Casting

(粗鋼）

［鋳造］

Slab

Rolling /SteelAnnealing

products［圧延／焼結］

ScrapSecondary

Aluminium

Smelter(スクラップ）［再生地金製造］

Bauxite(ボーキサイト）

Alumina

Alumina

Primary

Production(Al2O 3)

Smelter［アルミナ製造］(アルミナ）［新地金製造］

Aluminium

Casting(アルミニウム）［圧延］

Aluminium
Production(アルミニウム製品）

Stylized Energy
Processes in the
ENERGY module(Aluminum Sector)

Electiricty

Fuels

Heat

ExportLimestone

Stylized Energy
Processes in the
ENERGY module(Cement Sector)

Blast furnace

Grinding

Limestone

Baking(Dry Process)after grinding(Dry Process)［原料行程］［焼成行程］

Grinding

Limestone

Baking(Wet Process)after grinding(Wet Process)［原料行程］［焼成行程］

Slag

Clinker

Grinding

Grinding(高炉スラグ）［仕上行程］

Fly ashGrinding(フライアッシュ）［仕上行程］Other

Grinding

additiv es(その他混合物）

Clinker
after grinding

Mixing［仕上行程］

Portlandcement（ポルトランドセメント）

BF slag
after grinding

MixingBlast furnace
cement(高炉セメント)

Fly ashafter grinding

MixingFly ashcement(フライアッシュセメント)

Othersafter grinding

MixingOthercement［仕上行程］

Flow control

Cement(セメント)

Electiricty

Fuels

HeatStylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module(Paper and Pulp Sector)

Waste Paper

Waste

Bleaching

Paper

（古紙）

［離解・除塵］［脱墨・漂白］

Chip

Preheater

Refinary

Bleaching（チップ）［予熱行程］［精製行程］［漂白行程］

Cooking

Bleaching

［蒸解］

［漂白］

Liquor（古紙）

Boiler

Steam

［ボイラ］

（蒸気）

Paper

makingproducts（機械パルプ）

pulp（化学パルプ）Recov eryBlack Liquor

［回収］

（黒液）

蒸解：木釜，洗浄，未晒精選
Black Liquor
Boiler

Paper

pulp

ChemicalElectiricty

Fuels

Mechanical

回収：エバポレーター，苛性化，石灰焼成［黒液ボイラ］

晒：晒，晒精選，晒薬品製造（紙製品）

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module(Petrochemical Industry Sector)

NaphthaEthyleneplant

Off gasEthylene(オフガス)(エチレン)

Ethylene

Ethylene(エチレン)(エチレン)

Propylene

Ethylene(プロピレン)(エチレン)

B-B(C4)
fraction

Natural gas

Electiricty

Ethyleneplant

Propylene(B‑B留分)(プロピレン)

Cracked oil

Ethylene(分解油)(エチレン)Off gas

Propylene(オフガス)(プロピレン)

Ethylene

Fuels

Heat

Polyethylene
dev ice

Polyethylene(ポリエチレン)

VCM dev ice

Vinylchnoride(塩化ビニルモノマー)

SM dev ice

Styrenemonoer(スチレンモノマー)

Polypropylene

Poly-dev ice

propylene(ポリプロピレン)

Othersdev iceOthers

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module
Energy system in passenger transport (left) andfreight transport (right)
Passenger

Trafic v olume

Cars

of Pass. Cars

Buses

Railroad

Ships

Air

Trafic v olume
of buses

Trafic v olumeof railroad

Trafic v olumeof ships

TrucksRailroad

Ships

Air

Trafic v olume
of airElectiricty

Electiricty

Fuels

Fuels

Trafic v olumeof trucks

Trafic v olumeof railroad

Trafic v olumeof ships

Trafic v olume
of airStylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module(Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Sectors
PumpIrrigation

Felling/Conv eyor

(灌漑)

Tracter

Farn land
preparation(耕耘)MotorThreshing(脱穀)

BoilerGreenhouse(温室)Electiricty

Fuels

Logging(伐採)Fishing boat

Fishing(漁獲)Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module Energy
system Residential (left) and commercial (right) sectors
Cooler

CoolingAir
conditioner

Stov eWarming

Fan heater

Purchasedheat

Fan

Fan

Hot water
supplyCooler

Cooling

Air

Cookstov e

Cooking

Light

Lighting

Stov eRefrigerator

Refrigerator

Fan heater

Telev ision

Telev ision

OthersOthersElectiricty

Fuels

How Water

conditioner

Warming

Hot water
supplyCookstov e

Cooking

Light

Lighting

ComputerComputer

Purchased
heat

Fan

FanElectiricty

HeatFuels

How WaterHeat

HYDRO (Hydrology) and WATER module•Input from CLIMATE module of climate•Calculate Evapo-transpiration, Soil moisture,
Snow condition, Surface runoff, waterrouting•Base of other ecosystem/impact modules

CGE

Supply and demand equilibrium

AGRI

WATER

Production andDemand

Supply infrastructuresand demand

HYDRO
Surface water balance
Routing module

LAND
Land-use allocation

VEG

Vegetation dynamics

The LAND module

CGE module

Demand for primaryproducts

LAND grid-based•Food, timber and biomass
demand•Land requirement and supply•Expansion, reallocation andabandonment of cultivated land
•Vegetation dynamics

AGRI module

WATER
WATER

Water Supply andWater Supply
andDemand:
Intake,Demand: Intake,
Consumption,
Water
Consumption,
infrastructureWater
infrastructure

VEG

VEG :
Vegetation
Vegetation:
Potential
vegetation
Potential
vegetation
and DynamicandDynamic
vegetation
vegetation
HYDRO
HYDRO

Hydrology :ET, Soil
Hydrology:ET,Soilmoisture,
Snow
depth,moisture,
DroughtSnow
indexdepth,
Drought index

POP (Population) Module•••••

Cohort component model
Fertility modelMortality Model (Epidemiological transition)
Internal Migration Model
Coupling with HEALTH module

HEALTH (Health impacts) module
Environment related diseases
Climate Change: Malaria, Dengue,
Schistosomiasis, Heat & Cold stroke
Outdoor and Indoor pollution: Lead, Acute andChronic respiratory diseases
Water pollution: Diarrhoeal, Arsenic, Cholera

Process modelsof health impacts
by environmental
changeMalaria model
Dengue model
Schisto. Model
Heat stress model
Dose-Response function

ENV module
Emitter-Accepter relation
Pollutant transports
Environmental Load Reduction calculation
Water and wastewater facilitiesBurden ofDiseasecalculation

A simulation of Malaria epidemic potential
AIM/HEALTHA simulation of Dengue epidemic potential
AIM/HEALTH

The VEG (vegetation) module• Process-oriented
formulations ofbiogeochemical
fluxes as well as
vegetation
dynamics• Establishment,
Productivity andCompetition forresources,
Growth,Disturbance andMortality.
• Plant Functional
Types (PFTs) as
basic units

Vegetation
Dynamics

Vegetation
Phenology
Time step: Daily
By Plant Functional TypeTime step: Annual
By Grid cell
•Tissue turnover and allocation•Light competition•Mortality•Establishment•PFT environmental constraints

Nutrient cycle:
N and CSoil

A recent result of DGVM simulation suggests a strong
CO2 source from vegetation change with global warming
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. & Totterdell, I. J. Nature 408, 184–187(2000).

Climate change effect on NPP
Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL(preliminary calculation by AIM/VEG)

Climate change effect on runoff
Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL(preliminary calculation with AIM/VEG)

Focuses of modeling activity in year
2001-2002• AIM/COUNTRY，AIM／Database : In order toorganize and to distribute AIM models fornational and regional climate action plans aswell as wider comprehensive environmental
policies• From AIM/IMPACT to AIM/ECOSYSTEM : Inorder to broaden modeling perspectives
from climate policy to more wider points ofview, and increase the applicability tovarious policy processes

Important Acronyms and Abbreviations to communicate
with AIM teamAIM
Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
ALICE
Ancillary-effects estimating model for
local governments to improve theircomprehensive environment
APEIS
Asia-Pacific Environmental Innovation
Strategy Project
ATML/ATPL AIM Trend Macro/Program Language
ＣＧＥ
Computable General Equilibrium Model
GAMS
Generalized Algebraic Modeling System
MPSGE
Mathematical Programming System forGeneral Equilibrium analysis