IPCC sixth assessment cycle: Key findings from the Special
Reports and progress towards AR6 WGIII Mitigation Report
25th AIM International WorkshopTsukuba, Japan
18-19, November 2019
Priyadarshi Shukla, Co-Chair, IPCC WG III
Chair and Distinguished Professor
Global Centre for Environment and Energy
Ahmedabad University (India)

Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6)3 Special Reports
Global Warming of 1.5 °C(SR15)

Climate Change and Land
(SRCCL)

Ocean and Cryosphere(SROCC)

October 2018

August 2019

September 2019

UNFCCC COP24 - Talanoa (facilitative) dialogue

Methodology Report update
May 2019: 2019 Refinement to the 2006
IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories

CitiesAttention on cities in AR6:
Cities conference and special report oncities in AR7
Cities Research & Action Agenda

AR6 Main Report
2021: Working Group I, II, and III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report
April 2022: Synthesis Report to the Sixth Assessment Report
UNFCCC global stocktake 2023

IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6)Some overarching preliminary aspects for the Synthesis Report

May 2019
Emission
inventories• Global Stocktake• Interaction among emissions, climate, risks and development pathways• Economic and social costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation in the contextof development pathways• Adaptation and mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development• Finance and means of support

Oct. 2018

Sept. 2019

Globalwarming of
1.5 oC

Oceansand cryosphereTalanoa
dialogue
UNFCCC

Land

Aug. 2019

April 2021

October 2021

The PhysicalScience Basis

Climate Change
Impacts,Adaptation andVulnerability

MitigationofClimate Change
July 2021

April 2022
The Synthesis
ReportGlobalstocktake
2023
UNFCCCMarch 2018

Cities and Climate Change Science Conference

May 2018

Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions

May 2018

Expert Meeting on Short Lived Climate Forcers* Dates are subject to change

SPM2|

How the level of global warming affects impacts and/or risks associated withthe Reasons for Concern (RFCs) and selected natural, managed and humansystems

Confidence level for transition: L=Low, M=Medium, H=High and VH=Very high5

6

IPCC Special Report on The Ocean andCryospherein a Changing Climate

Key findings•

Choices made now are critical for the future of our ocean andcryosphere•

Major changes in high mountains affecting downstream
communities•

Melting ice, rising seas•

More frequent extreme sea level events•

Changing ocean ecosystems•

Declining Arctic sea ice, thawing permafrost

Adaptation approaches
 Protection
 Accommodation
 Ecosystem‐based adaptation
 Coastal advance Managed relocation

REPORT COVER IMAGE:
Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E)©Yann Arthus‐Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org

How we use land now?

14

Land and Climate change• Climate change exacerbates land degradation• Land degradation is a driver of climate change throughemissions of GHGs and reduced uptake of carbon• Gross emissions from AFOLU make up 1/3 of total
global emissions.

• Land accounts for 61% of anthropogenic methaneemissions.

• 50% of the nitrogen applied to agricultural land is nottaken up by the crop, resulting in nitrous oxideemissions.

1515

Response Options
for the food system• Sustainable production• Consumption of healthy andsustainable diet

• Reducing food loss and waste
16

IPCC WGIII Contributions to AR6

Government questionnaire: priority topics for WG III
 Policy relevant information on the Paris Agreement goals (well below 2°C, efforts toachieve 1.5°C, climate neutrality); anticipate the global stocktake; transformation
pathways to meet 2°C and 1.5°C; social + financial + technological + sectoral+ regional implications of pathways
 Geo-engineering, including limits, negative emissions
 The role of short-lived climate pollutants and other benefits
 Options for decarbonization pathways, including solutions from business Links between climate change and SDGs
 Technological, economic, social, and institutional barriers to realizing mitigationtargets and benefits from carbon offset mechanisms
 Opportunities, challenges, barriers and co-benefits of climate change mitigation
policies and measures
 Impacts on land-use change, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity andecosystem functions and services

Outline of WG III AR6
Framing (1 chapter)
1. Introduction and framing
High-level assessment of emission trends, drivers
and pathways (3 chapters)
2. Emissions trends and drivers
3. Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals
4. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term
Sectoral chapters (8 chapters)
5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
6: Energy systems
9. Buildings
7. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses 10. Transport
8. Urban systems and other settlements
11. Industry
12. Cross sectoral perspectives
Institutional drivers (2 chapters)
13. National and sub-national policies and institutions
14. International cooperation
Financial and technological drivers (2 chapters)
15. Investment and finance
16. Innovation, technology development and transfer
Synthesis (1 chapter)
17. Accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable
development

Set up sustainable development
as key framing concept
Balancing sources andsinks/warming levels
NDCs, emissions peaking, midcentury long-term low greenhousegas emission development
strategies
Orients sectors to human needs
The sectoral core: maps on toinventories
Responses not captured by
sectoral framing
Institutions, policies andcooperation
Financial flows + technologicalinnovation

Synthesis sustainable
development in different
geographical scales

Challenges for AR6• To assess the linkages between high-level climate
stabilization goals and scenarios on the one hand andthe practical steps needed in the short- and mediumterm to make the realisation of these goals possible• To make greater use of social science disciplines, inaddition to economics, especially for gaining insight intoissues related to lifestyle, behaviour, consumption,technological choices and socio-technical transitions.

• To link climate change mitigation better to other agreed
policy goals nationally and internationally (e.g. theSustainable Development Goals - SDGs).

Timeline for WGIII contribution to AR6

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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