The 25th AIM International Workshop, November 2019, Tsukuba, JapanThe role of electric vehicle penetration in urban decarbonization
scenarios-An integrated land use-transport-energy modelRunsen Zhang
Civil and Environmental Engineering/Architecture Unit, IDEC
Hiroshima University, Japan

Background

Study area

Method➢ Many countries around the world
intend to build low-carbon cities inhopes of achieving energy-efficientand livable communities.
➢ Rapidly growing mobility demandand private vehicle ownershipcounteract the efforts to reduce theCO2 emissions and air pollutants in
the regions of large humanpopulation such as urban areas.
➢ Electric vehicle (EV), which is often
considered as a promising solution
towards a green future, offers analternative to conventional internal
combustion engine vehicle (ICEV).

Figure 1. Model structure.

➢ First, we propose a land use-transportinteraction model in the tradition ofurban partial equilibrium mode that
explicitly formulates the location
choice decisions and travel behaviors.
➢ Second, the land use-transportinteraction model is extended toincorporate the energy system for
depicting the energy use andemissions profiles due to urbanpolices.
➢ Scenarios⚫Reference scenario (REF): without
stringent penetration of EVs⚫EV scenario (EV): subsidies will coveraround 50% of capital cost of EVs

Figure 2. Study area.

Results⚫ Impacts of EV penetration on transport demand, energy, emissions, and social welfare
(a)

(d)

(c)

(b)

Figure 3. Impacts of EV penetration on transport demand (a), energy use (b), emissions (c), and social welfare (d).

⚫ Spatial differentiation on policy effectiveness

(a)

(b)

⚫ Cluster and hotspot analysis

(c)

(a)

(b)

(c)

Figure 5. Cluster and hotspot analysis on emission intensity. REF(a), EV (b) , and changes between two scenarios (c).
➢ With the penetration of EVs, population would migrate from mediateareas to central and suburban areas, while land for residence andproduction decrease mainly in the central and mediate areas.
➢ A considerable social welfare would be generated due to thepenetration of EVs, which are mainly distributed in the suburban areas.

(d)(e)(f)

Figure 4. Changes in population (a), land for residence (b), land for production(c), emission intensity (d), car usage (e) and welfare (f) in 2050.

➢ Hotspots of emission intensity are located in north suburban areas, andhigh values of reduced emission intensities for transport are
clustered in central areas.

Conclusions➢ The Integrated Land Use-Transport-Energy Model (ILUTEM) can capture the interaction between
location choice, land market, urban mobility, energy system, and economy as well.
➢ The penetration of EVs has significant positive effects on emission reduction and social welfare, andspatial differentiation and clustering on policy effectiveness deserves more attention.
➢ Since the disaggregated spatial interactions can be handled by this model, ILUTEM offers a useful tool forclimate change oriented urban planning and infrastructure policy making.
➢ In addition to the EV policy, future studies are needed to detect how land use and transport planning
would contribute to the deep urban decarbonization.