Research activities of
AIM/Impact team in Japan
K. Takahashi, Y. Hijioka, N. Hanasaki,
Y. Masutomi, and H. Harasawa

Public
generalGlobalOutreach/education
Translation of WGII-AR4
Review report: Wise adaptation

Inter-community Networking:
Task group on climate scenario utilization[S-5] Global-scale impact assessment
and risk communication

Media

Data sharing
Pattern scaling
Downscaling
Skill score

Risk communication
Dialogues with stakeholders

MIROC3.2
Hard link

H08

Model comparison
in EU-watch

Hard link
Risk quantification
Probabilistic assessment of impacts

Businesses

IPCC etc.

GCM[CP3] Model integration[Bc088] Contribution to
IPCC New scenario

M-GAEZ
G-SWAT

Water

Global water resource
assessment

Model comparison
in CroMIP

Agriculture

AIM-CGE
PolicySupportJapanesegovernment[S-4] Comprehensive assessment of impacts on Japan

Impact functions (Global) AIM/Impact[Policy]
User interface
Policy support
Impact thresholds
Impact functions (Japan)
Collaborative case studies
Stabilization targets

Collaborations with other
Collaborations with otherinstitutes for cost evaluation institutes for developing IFs
Meijo-Univ: CVM etc.
Tsukuba-Univ.: Heat stressTohoku-Univ.: Flood hazard
AFFRC: Natural vegetation
AudiencesBasicscienceLocal

on regional impact /adaptation assessment
NIAES: Rice in Mekong
JICA-JST: Water in Thailand
NIES: Waterworks in Tokyo
Non-CC
Research
Communities

VisionVisionofofadaptation
adaptationresearches
researchesininNIESNIESActivities in FY2008

•

Apr.
–
–

•

May.
–
–

•

Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Community Coordination, Boulder, USA [Hijioka,
Takahashi]

Feb.
–

•

EU-WATCH, Bratislava, Slovakia [Hanasaki]
Report: Vision of adaptation researches in NIES. [Takahashi, Hijioka and others]

Jan
–

•

International workshop on integrated responses to climate change, Seoul, Korea [Takahashi]
Symposium on Global Environment Research Fund, Tokyo, Japan [Hijioka]

Nov.
–
–

•

Awards given by Society of Environmental Science [Harasawa, Takahashi]

Oct.
–
–

•

Symposium on global environment engineering research, Okayama, Japan [Takahashi, Hanasaki, Masutomi]

Sep.
–

•

Trip to Shijiazhuang in China for on-site inspection of Chinese agriculture [Hanasaki, Masutomi]

Aug.
–

•

Report: Wise adaptation to climate change [MoE]Open Symposium by NIES, Tokyo and Sapporo, Japan [Kainuma, Hijioka]

Jul.
–

•

Report: Research project for comprehensive projection of climate change impacts in Japan [S-4]Launch of Task Group on Climate Scenario Utilization [Takahashi, Hanasaki, Hijioka, Masutomi]

Jun.
–
–

•

Food Security and Environmental Change, Oxford, UK [Masutomi]
EU-WATCH, Wageningen, The Netherlands [Hanasaki]

Acceptance of Special Research Project of NIES (Development of water demand and trade models for a global water resources modeland their application to long term scenario analyses) [Hanasaki and others]

Mar.
–
–

Symposium for enhancing dialogue with media persons, Tokyo [Takahashi, Harasawa, planed on 11 March]
International Symposium on Agricultural Meteorology, Fukushima, Japan [Masutomi, planed on 25-27 March](Refereed) Articles accepted or published in FY2008
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Hanasaki, N., Masutomi, Y., Hijioka, Y. and Takahashi, K.: Development and application of a global water-stressed
population estimation scheme for climate policy assistance models, Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, accepted.
(in Japanese)
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated
model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1007-1025, 2008.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated
model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12,1027-1037, 2008.
Hanasaki, N., Masutomi, Y., Hijioka, Y. and Takahashi, K.:An intercomparison of future projections on domestic andindustrial water withdrawal in global water resources assessments, Global Environment Engineering Research , 16, 1-8,
2008 (in Japanese)
Masutomi, Y., Takahashi K., Harasawa, H., Matsuoka, Y.: Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in
Asia in comprehensive consideration in process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models, Agric. Ecosyst.
Environ, accepted.
Masutomi, Y., Inui Y., Takahashi K., Matsuoka, Y.: Development of highly accurate global polygonal drainage basin
data, Hydrol. Process., 23, 572-584, 2009.
Masutomi, Y., Takahashi K., Harasawa, H., Matsuoka, Y.: Assessments of climate change impacts and effects ofadaptation policies in the near future on paddy rice production in Asia in consideration of uncertainties in climate
projections, Global Environment Engineering Research , 16, 121-130, 2008 (in Japanese)
Takahashi, K., Matsui, T., Hijioka, Y., Tanaka, N., and Harasawa, H.: Development of an impact function of buna
(Fagus crenata) forests for climate change policy support models, Global Environment Engineering Research , 16, 2008
(in Japanese)
Matsui, T. , Takahashi, K., Tanaka, N., Hijioka, Y., Horikawa, M., Yagihashi, T., and Harasawa, H. : Evaluation of
habitat sustainability and vulnerability for beech (Fagus crenata) forests under 110 hypothetical climatic change
scenarios in Japan, Applied Vegetation Science, accepted.
Hijioka, Y., Matsuoka, Y., Nishimoto, H., Masui, T., Kainuma, M.: Global GHG Emission Scenarios under GHG
Concentration Stabilization Targets, Journal of Global Environment Engineering，Vol.13，pp.97-108，2008
Kawagoe, S., Kazama, S., Hijioka, Y., and Takahashi, K.: Evaluation of future slope failure risk using generalcirculation model output, Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, accepted. (in Japanese)Public
generalGlobalOutreach/education
Translation of WGII-AR4
Review report: Wise adaptation

Inter-community Networking:
Task group on climate scenario utilization[S-5] Global-scale impact assessment
and risk communication

Media

Data sharing
Pattern scaling
Downscaling
Skill score

Risk communication
Dialogues with stakeholders

MIROC3.2
Hard link

H08

Model comparison
in EU-watch

Hard link
Risk quantification
Probabilistic assessment of impacts

Businesses

IPCC etc.

GCM[CP3] Model integration[Bc088] Contribution to
IPCC New scenario

M-GAEZ
G-SWAT

Water

Global water resource
assessment

Model comparison
in CroMIP

Agriculture

AIM-CGE
PolicySupportJapanesegovernment[S-4] Comprehensive assessment of impacts on Japan

Impact functions (Global) AIM/Impact[Policy]
User interface
Policy support
Impact thresholds
Impact functions (Japan)
Collaborative case studies
Stabilization targets

Collaborations with other
Collaborations with otherinstitutes for cost evaluation institutes for developing IFs
Meijo-Univ: CVM etc.
Tsukuba-Univ.: Heat stressTohoku-Univ.: Flood hazard
AFFRC: Natural vegetation
AudiencesBasicscienceLocal

on regional impact /adaptation assessment
NIAES: Rice in Mekong
JICA-JST: Water in Thailand
NIES: Waterworks in Tokyo
Non-CC
Research
Communities

VisionVisionofofadaptation
adaptationresearches
researchesininNIESNIESProgress report (published in May 2008. 94 pages)••

Results for the first three years of the project
The development of quantitative assessment methods by field and projection of
the impacts on Japan are described, together with risk maps (nationwide as well
as regional assessments) that show the level of and regional distribution of the
impacts.
Comprehensive studies are described on the increasing impacts on Japan when
global warming proceeds under various climate scenarios, using climate change
impact functions that have been developed to show the relationship between the
progress of global warming and impact levels.

http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj-impact-s4report.html

Public
generalGlobalOutreach/education
Translation of WGII-AR4
Review report: Wise adaptation

Inter-community Networking:
Task group on climate scenario utilization[S-5] Global-scale impact assessment
and risk communication

Media

Data sharing
Pattern scaling
Downscaling
Skill score

Risk communication
Dialogues with stakeholders

MIROC3.2
Hard link

H08

Model comparison
in EU-watch

Hard link
Risk quantification
Probabilistic assessment of impacts

Businesses

IPCC etc.

GCM[CP3] Model integration[Bc088] Contribution to
IPCC New scenario

M-GAEZ
G-SWAT

Water

Global water resource
assessment

Model comparison
in CroMIP

Agriculture

AIM-CGE
PolicySupportJapanesegovernment[S-4] Comprehensive assessment of impacts on Japan

Impact functions (Global) AIM/Impact[Policy]
User interface
Policy support
Impact thresholds
Impact functions (Japan)
Collaborative case studies
Stabilization targets

Collaborations with other
Collaborations with otherinstitutes for cost evaluation institutes for developing IFs
Meijo-Univ: CVM etc.
Tsukuba-Univ.: Heat stressTohoku-Univ.: Flood hazard
AFFRC: Natural vegetation
AudiencesBasicscienceLocal

on regional impact /adaptation assessment
NIAES: Rice in Mekong
JICA-JST: Water in Thailand
NIES: Waterworks in Tokyo
Non-CC
Research
Communities

VisionVisionofofadaptation
adaptationresearches
researchesininNIESNIESCollaborations between research projects
Climate projection (funded by MEXT)
・ 100km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2100)
・ 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA

Kyosei(2002-2006)

Kakushin・ [Long-term] 280km Earth System Model by FRCGC (-2300)
・ [Near-term] 50km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2030)
・ [Extreme event] 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA
Task Group on
Climate Scenario
Utilization

・ Co-ordination of data exchange
・ Share of know-how on climate
scenario utilization

Impact assessment (funded by MOE)・ Spatial downscaling of climate scenarios (with RCM / SD)・ Downscaling of socio-economic scenarios (global)
・ Sectoral impact assessment at global scale
・ Risk communication with public citizen and business
降雨量極値差(mm/day)

S-5

S-4

・Sectoral impacts and adaptation strategies in Japan and Asia
Progress
reportAR4

Extension of the project

AR52005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Public
generalGlobalOutreach/education
Translation of WGII-AR4
Review report: Wise adaptation

Inter-community Networking:
Task group on climate scenario utilization[S-5] Global-scale impact assessment
and risk communication

Media

Data sharing
Pattern scaling
Downscaling
Skill score

Risk communication
Dialogues with stakeholders

MIROC3.2
Hard link

H08

Model comparison
in EU-watch

Hard link
Risk quantification
Probabilistic assessment of impacts

Businesses

IPCC etc.

GCM[CP3] Model integration[Bc088] Contribution to
IPCC New scenario

M-GAEZ
G-SWAT

Water

Global water resource
assessment

Model comparison
in CroMIP

Agriculture

AIM-CGE
PolicySupportJapanesegovernment[S-4] Comprehensive assessment of impacts on Japan

Impact functions (Global) AIM/Impact[Policy]
User interface
Policy support
Impact thresholds
Impact functions (Japan)
Collaborative case studies
Stabilization targets

Collaborations with other
Collaborations with otherinstitutes for cost evaluation institutes for developing IFs
Meijo-Univ: CVM etc.
Tsukuba-Univ.: Heat stressTohoku-Univ.: Flood hazard
AFFRC: Natural vegetation
AudiencesBasicscienceLocal

on regional impact /adaptation assessment
NIAES: Rice in Mekong
JICA-JST: Water in Thailand
NIES: Waterworks in Tokyo
Non-CC
Research
Communities

VisionVisionofofadaptation
adaptationresearches
researchesininNIESNIESWorkshop on CCIAV Community Coordination, Boulder• In face of the processes of IPCC new scenario development and AR5
writing, global coordination of CCIAV (Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability) research community is expected forbetter communication both with other research communities (climate
modelers, IAM modelers) and within CCIAV community.
• A workshop which focused on the community coordination was heldin NCAR (Boulder, US) in January 2009.
• Nine research areas, or organizational nuclei were proposed in theworkshop.
– Impacts and adaptation assessment– Investigation of risk uncertainty and decision making– Storyline and scenario development, their application, communication (within
the community) and distribution at a range of scales.
– Adaptation: past, present and future– Processes interacting with vulnerability– Costing and valuation: monetary and non-monetary and social– Observations and data systems.
– Integration of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability– Extreme events, thresholds, key vulnerabilities

Various uncertainties contained in impact projection
Uncertainty in GHG / socio-economic scenario
Climate projection
Naturalvariability

Impactprojection
Impactprojection

Climatemodel
uncertainty

GHG
emission
uncertainty

Uncertainty in methods
for developing
climate scenarios

Impactmodel
uncertainty

Climatescenario
uncertaintySocio-economic
scenario
uncertainty

Example of impact assessment considering
Masutomi, Y. et al.,uncertainty of climate projection
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. (accepted)
productivity assessments using multiImpact on rice productivity Crop
GCM projections evaluated in IPCC-AR4
SRES-A2

SRES-A1B

SRES-B1

80-10080-10080-100

60-80

60-80

60-80

40-60

40-60

40-60

20-40

20-40

20-40

1-20

1-20

1-20

0-1

0-1

0-1

生産量変化率[%]

生産量変化率[%]

20〜25

15〜20

10〜15

5〜10

0〜5

-5〜0

-10〜-5-15〜-10-20〜-15

20〜25

15〜20

10〜15

0
5〜10

0
0〜5

0

-5〜0

0.1
-10〜-50.1-15〜-100.1-20〜-150.2-25〜-20

0.2

20〜25

0.2

15〜20

0.3

10〜15

0.3

5〜10

0.3

0〜5

0.4

-5〜0

0.4

-10〜-50.4-15〜-100.5-20〜-150.5-25〜-200.5-25〜-20

Probability of crop productivity decrease [%] (with CO2 fertilization；２０８０s-１９９０s)

生産量変化率[%]PDFs of estimated productivity change (Asia；with CO2 fertilization； ２０８０s-１９９０s)

Various uncertainties contained in impact projection
Uncertainty in GHG / socio-economic scenario
Climate projection
Naturalvariability

Impactprojection
Impactprojection

Climatemodel
uncertainty

GHG
emission
uncertainty

Uncertainty in methods
for developing
climate scenarios

Impactmodel
uncertainty

Climatescenario
uncertaintySocio-economic
scenario
uncertainty

Inter-comparison of sector impact assessment models• Quantification of uncertainties in impact projections is an
important research challenge in AR5 process. AIM/Impact
team thinks that inter-comparison of sector impact
assessment models will be promoted rapidly.
• Water: Hanasaki has been involved in “EU-WATCH”
project for inter-comparing global-scale water resource
models.
– Details are explained in Dr. Hanasaki’s presentation.

• Crop: With crop modelers in the University of Tokyo,
Masutomi and Hanasaki launched a global-scale crop modelinter-comparison study named CroMIP.

Public
generalGlobalOutreach/education
Translation of WGII-AR4
Review report: Wise adaptation

Inter-community Networking:
Task group on climate scenario utilization[S-5] Global-scale impact assessment
and risk communication

Media

Data sharing
Pattern scaling
Downscaling
Skill score

Risk communication
Dialogues with stakeholders

MIROC3.2
Hard link

H08

Model comparison
in EU-watch

Hard link
Risk quantification
Probabilistic assessment of impacts

Businesses

IPCC etc.

GCM[CP3] Model integration[Bc088] Contribution to
IPCC New scenario

M-GAEZ
G-SWAT

Water

Global water resource
assessment

Model comparison
in CroMIP

Agriculture

AIM-CGE
PolicySupportJapanesegovernment[S-4] Comprehensive assessment of impacts on Japan

Impact functions (Global) AIM/Impact[Policy]
User interface
Policy support
Impact thresholds
Impact functions (Japan)
Collaborative case studies
Stabilization targets

Collaborations with other
Collaborations with otherinstitutes for cost evaluation institutes for developing IFs
Meijo-Univ: CVM etc.
Tsukuba-Univ.: Heat stressTohoku-Univ.: Flood hazard
AFFRC: Natural vegetation
AudiencesBasicscienceLocal

on regional impact /adaptation assessment
NIAES: Rice in Mekong
JICA-JST: Water in Thailand
NIES: Waterworks in Tokyo
Non-CC
Research
Communities

VisionVisionofofadaptation
adaptationresearches
researchesininNIESNIESSpecial Research Project of NIES: Development of water demand
and trade models for a global water resources model and theirapplication to long term scenario analyses (2009-2011)
Earth System model（MIROC）•

Other projects（Univ. of Tokyo, etc.）

Socio economic
Scenarios

n
tio
ra

•

Climate

bo
lla
Co

•

Global water resources model
is a useful tool to projectclimate change impact on water
resources globally.
To project future domestic andindustrial water, cooperation
between water and economic
models is essential.
Our goal is to obtain nationaldomestic, industrial, and virtualwater scenarios in the 21st
century.

AgriGlobal CGE

Water

Land use

Masui, Okagawa

Water stressIndustrial
Water
Model

ng
a
ch

e

e
Industrial
atwater Clim Socio economic
Global water
resources model
Scenarios
Crop water
Hanasaki, Suga,
demandDomestic
water Ichinose, Takahashi
Domestic water
Water stressdemand projection model
Virtual
Water
Hijioka, Kanamori

CarbonEconometrics model(intl. trade model)
Hibiki, Kubota 1