Global Earthquake Model

Global Seismic Hazard Map

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in units of g with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50years, equivalent to a return period of 475 years.

Equivalent distance on the ground [km] at a latitude of 0°N© GEM Foundation 2018 (model v2018.1) - License: CC BY-NC-SA

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Global Seismic Hazard Map

Contributing models

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Global Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1) depicts the geographic distributionof the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference
rock conditions (shear wave velocity, VS30, of 760-800 m/s). The map was created by collating maps computed using
national and regional probabilistic seismic hazard models developed by various institutions and projects, and by GEM
Foundation scientists. The OpenQuake engine, an open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation softwaredeveloped principally by the GEM Foundation, was used to calculate the hazard values. A smoothing methodology
was applied to homogenise hazard values along the model borders. The map is based on a database of hazard
models described using the OpenQuake engine data format (NRML); those models originally implemented in othersoftware formats were converted into NRML. While translating these models, various checks were performed to test
the compatibility between the original results and the new results computed using the OpenQuake engine. Overall thediﬀerences between the original and translated model results are small, notwithstanding some diversity in modelling
methodologies implemented in diﬀerent hazard modelling software. The hashed areas in the map (e.g. Greenland) arecurrently not covered by a hazard model. The map and the underlying database of models are a dynamic framework,
capable to incorporate newly released open models. Due to possible model limitations, regions portrayed with low
hazard may still experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Foundation plans to release future updatesof this map on a regular basis as new information becomes available. Technical details on the compilation of thehazard and risk maps and the underlying models are available at http://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem
HHow to use and cite this work
Please cite this work as: M. Pagani, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, K. Johnson, V. Poggi, R. Styron, G. Weatherill, M.
Simionato, D. Viganò, L. Danciu, D. Monelli (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (version
2018.1 - December 2018), DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-HAZARD-MAP-2018.1
This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0
International License (CC BY-NC-SA): https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/➜ Alaska, USA [ALS] - 2007
Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
• Authors: R.L. Wesson, O.S. Boyd, C.S. Mueller, C.G. Bufe, A.D. Frankel, M.D. Petersen• Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/

Acknowledgements
This map is the result of a collaborative eﬀort and extensively relies on the enthusiam and committment of variousorganisations and projects to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible
without the support provided by many public and private organisations during GEM’s second implementation phase(2014-2018). These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. None of this would have been possible without
the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staﬀ. The map was plotted using the Generic Mapping Tools software(Wessel et al., 2013).
C➜ China [CHN] - 2015
Developed by the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration and converted into the OpenQuake engine
by Changlong Li within a collaboration between the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration, theSwiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland and GEM.
• Authors: M. Gao, G. Chen, F. Xie, X. Xu, X. Li, Y. Yu• Website: http://www.cea-igp.ac.cn/

Contacts:
GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation
Via Ferrata, 1 - 27100, Pavia, Italy
info@globalquakemodel.org

More information available at:
http://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem➜ Arabian Peninsula [ARB] - 2018
Developed by the Saudi Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
• Authors: H. Zahran, V. Sokolov, S. El-Hadidy Youssef, W. W. Alraddadi, M. J. Roobol, I. C. F. Stewart, M. El-Hadidy• Website: https://www.sgs.org.sa/english/naturalhazards/pages/ncev.aspx➜ Australia [AUS] - 2018
Developed by Geoscience Australia.
• Authors: T. Allen, J. Griﬃn, M. Leonard, D. Clark, H. Ghasemi• Website: http://www.ga.gov.au/about/projects/safety/nsha➜ Canada [CAN] - 2015
Developed by Natural Resources Canada, partly adjusted to the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
• Authors: J. Adams, S. Halchuk, T. Allen, G. Rogers• Website: http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca➜ Caribbean and Central America [CCA] - 2018
Developed within the project CCARA. Cuba and Puerto Rico were included a posteriori by GEM. Organisations involved inCCARA: GEM - University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica - Costa Rican Institute of Electricity, Costa Rica - Nicaraguan Instituteof Territorial Studies, Nicaragua - Catholic University of El Salvador, El Salvador - Ministry of Environment and NaturalResources, El Salvador - Panama University, Panama.
• Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron, V. Poggi➜ Central Asia [CEA] - 2018
Developed within the EMCA project, coordinated by the Helmholtz German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany.
Organisations involved: Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of theRepublic of Tajikistan - Institute of Geophysical Research, Kazakhstan - International University of Innovation Technologies,Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyzstan Institute of Seismology, Kyrgyzstan - Central-Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, Kyrgyzstan Institute of Mechanics and Seismic Stability of Structures of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Mavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan.
• Authors: S. Ullah, D. Bindi, M. Pilz, L. Danciu, G.A. Weatherill, E. Zuccolo, A. Ischuk, N.N. Mikhailova, K. Abdrakhmatov, S.
Parolai, K. Fleming• Website: http://www.emca-gem.org/➜ Europe [EUR] - 2013
Developed within the EU-funded SHARE project, coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich,
Switzerland. Organisations involved: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany - The
National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy - Joseph Fourier University, France - University of Pavia, Italy Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece - The French Geological Survey, France - Center of Research in Astronomy,
Astrophysics, and Geophysics, Algeria - Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal Bogazici University, Turkey - National
Laboratory for Civil Engineering, Portugal - Middle East Technical University, Turkey - Montenegro SeismologicalObservatory, Montenegro - Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom - National Institute for Earth Physics,Romania - National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece - Norwegian Seismic Array, Norway - Royal Observatoryof Belgium, Belgium. Updated version of the model to be released in 2020.
• Authors: J. Woessner, L. Danciu, D. Giardini, H. Crowley, F. Cotton, G. Grünthal, G. Valensise, R. Arvidsson, R. Basili , M.
Betül Demircioglu, S. Hiemer, C. Meletti, R. W. Musson, A.N. Rovida, K, Sesetyan, M. Stucchi• Website: http://www.share-eu.org/➜ Hawaii, USA [HAW] - 1998
Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
• Authors: F. W. Klein, A.D. Frankel, C.S. Mueller, R.L. Wesson, P.G. Okubo• Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation➜ Indonesia [IDN] - 2017
Developed by the Team for Updating Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia. The team belongs to the National Center for
Earthquake Studies under the Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements of the Ministry of Public
Works and People Housing. Ministries involved: Ministry of Public Works and People Housing; Ministry of Energy and Mineralresources; Ministry of Transportation; Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education; and National Disaster
Management Authority of Indonesia. Organisations involved: Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics; Indonesian
Research Institute; Geospatial Information Agency; Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements; Centreof Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation; Indonesian Academy of Sciences; Bandung Institute of Technology;
University of Indonesia; University of Gajah Mada; University of Diponegoro; Indonesian Society for Geotechnical Engineering;and Indonesian Disaster Expert Association. The team collaborated internationally with Geoscience Australia, Australia.
• Authors: M. Irsyam., L. Faizal, D. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, S. Widiyantoro, W. Triyoso, A. Rudiyanto, S. Hidayati, M. Asrurifak,
M. Ridwan, P. Cummins➜ India and surroundings [IND] - 2012
Developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012), revised and implemented into the OpenQuake engine by N. Ackerley (NaturalResources Canada).
• Authors: N. Ackerley, K.K.S. Thingbaijaim, S.K. Nath➜ Japan [JPN] - 2014
Developed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japan and converted into the OpenQuake engine format
within a collaboration between the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan, and GEM.
• Authors: H. Fujiwara, N. Morikawa, S. Kawai, S. Aoi, S. Senna, T. Maeda, H. Azuma, K. X. Hao, A. Iwaki, K. Wakamatsu, M.
Imoto, N. Hasegawa, T. Okumura, T. Hayakawa, M. Takahashi• Website: http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/en/➜ Korean Peninsula [KOR] - 2018
Assembled by GEM.
➜ Mexico [MEX] - 2018
Developed by GEM.
• Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron➜ Middle East [MIE] - 2016
Developed within the EMME project, jointly coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland, and theKandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkey. Institutions involved: International Institute for Earthquake
Engineering and Seismology, Iran; Middle East Technical University, Turkey; Sakarya University, Turkey; University ofPeshawar, Pakistan; Yarmouk University, Jordan; American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi StateUniversity, Georgia; National Academy of Sciences, Armenia; National Academy of Sciences, Azerbaijan.
• Authors: D. Giardini, L. Danciu, M. Erdik, K. Sesetyan, MB Demircioğlu, S. Akkar, L. Gulen, M. Zare, S. Adamia, A. Ansari,A. Arakelyan, A. Askan, M. Avanesyan, H. Babayan, T. Chelidze, R. Durgaryan, A. Elias, H. Hamzehloo, K. Hessami, D.
Kalafat, O. Kale, A. Karakhanyan, MA. Khan, T. Mamadli, M. Al-Qarouti, M. Sayab, N. Tsereteli, M. Utkucu, O.
Varazanashvili, M. Waseem, H. Yalçın, MT. Yılmaz
• Website: http://www.efehr.org➜ Northern Africa [NAF] - 2018
Developed by GEM.
• Authors: V. Poggi, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Styron➜ Northeastern Asia [NEA] - 2018
Developed by GEM.
• Authors: V. Poggi, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Styron➜ Northwestern Asia [NWA] - 2018
Developed by GEM and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland.
• Authors: V. Poggi, L. Danciu➜ New Zealand [NZL] - 2010 corrected
GNS Science led the development of the model and converted it into the OpenQuake engine.
• Authors: E.R. Abbott, N. Horspool, M. Gerstenberger, R. Huso, C. Van Houtte, G. McVerry, S. Canessa• Authors (2010 model): M. Stirling, G. McVerry, M. Gerstenberger, N. Litchﬁeld, R. Van Dissen, K. Berryman, P. Barnes, L.
Wallace, P. Villamor, R. Langridge, G. Lamarche, S. Nodder, M. Reyners, B. Bradley, D. Rhoades, W. Smith, A. Nicol, J.
Pettinga, K. Clark, K. Jacobs• Website: https://www.gns.cri.nz/➜ Paciﬁc Islands [PAC] - 2018
Developed by GEM.
• Authors: K. Johnson➜ Philippines [PHL] - 2018
Developed jointly by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and GEM.
• Authors: PHIVOLCS, K. Johnson, R. Styron• Website: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph➜ Papua New Guinea [PNG] - 2015
Developed within a collaboration between the Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory and Geoscience Australia.
• Authors: H. Ghasemi, C. McKee, M. Leonard, P. Cummins, M. Moihoi, S. Spiliopoulos, F. Taranu, E. Buri
➜ South America [SAM] - 2018
Initially developed within the SARA project and updated by GEM. Organisations involved: GEM, Colombian GeologicalSurvey, Colombia - National University of Colombia, Colombia - University of Valle, Colombia - Venezuelan Foundation for
Seismological Research, Venezuela - University of Merida, Venezuela - National Observatory, Brazil, Institute of Astronomy,Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Brazil - Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil - National Polytechnic
University, Ecuador - San Calixto Observatory - Bolivia - University of Chile, Chile - University of Concepción, Chile Pontiﬁcal Catholic University of Chile, Chile - Research Center for Disaster Risk Management, Chile - Peruvian Geological
Service, Peru - University of San Luis, Argentina - University of Antofagasta, Argentina - National Institute of Seismic
Prevention, Argentina - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy.
• Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, M. Pagani, K. Johnson, R. Styron, V. Poggi➜ Continental Southeastern Asia [SEA] - 2018
Developed by the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore and Mahidol University, Thailand.
• Authors: C.-H. Chan, T. Ornthammarath➜ Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA] - 2018
Developed by GEM in collaboration with AfricaArray within the project SSAHARA.
• Authors: V. Poggi, R. Durrheim, G.M. Tuluka, G.A. Weatherill, R. Gee, M. Pagani, A. Nyblade, D. Delvaux➜ Taiwan [TEM] - 2015
Developed within the Taiwan Earthquake Model initiative, a collaboration between various Taiwanese research institutions.
• Authors: Y.-J. Wang, C.-H. Chan, Y.-T. Lee, K.-F. Ma, J.-H. Shyu, R.-J. Rau, C.-T. Cheng• Website: http://tec.earth.sinica.edu.tw/TEM/index.php➜ California, USA [UCF] - 2014
Developed within a project supported by the United States Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, theCalifornia Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority. The model was converted into the OpenQuake engineby GEM.
• Authors: E.H. Field, G.P. Biasi, P. Bird, T.E. Dawson, K.R. Felzer, D.D. Jackson, K.M. Johnson, T.H. Jordan, C. Madden, A.J.
Michael, K.R. Milner, M.T. Page, T. Parsons, P.M. Powers, B.E. Shaw, W.R. Thatcher, R.J. Weldon II, Y. Zeng
• Website: http://wgcep.org/ucerf3➜ United States of America [USA] - 2014
Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
• Authors: M.D. Petersen, M.P. Moschetti, P.M. Powers, C.S. Mueller, K. M. Haller, A.D. Frankel, Y. Zeng, S. Rezaeian, S.C.
Harmsen, O.S. Boyd, E.H. Field, R. Chen, K.S. Rukstales, N. Luco, R.L. Wheeler, R.A. Williams, A.H. Olsen• Website: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/

The GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map is a product of the GEM Foundation. Initiated by the OECD’s Global Science
Forum in 2006, GEM was formed in 2009 as a non-proﬁt foundation in Pavia, Italy, funded through a public-privatesponsorship with the vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes. Participants represent national research,applied science or disaster management institutions, the private sector and international organisations. GEM
continues the tradition of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), which produced the ﬁrst globalseismic hazard map arising from a global collaborative eﬀort of scientists in 1999 in support of the UN International
Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). GEM’s collaborative network comprises more than 70 public andprivate institutions organised under more than 25 regional, national and multilateral projects. Observing its corevalues of collaboration, transparency, openness, credibility and serving the public good, the GEM initiative extends
the scope of work of GSHAP to the risk domain, providing an institutional framework for continuous updates andfostering direct applications to risk reduction and prevention projects. GEM’s OpenQuake platform(platform.openquake.org) provides access to data, models, tools and software behind the maps. GEM’s open-source
OpenQuake engine enables probabilistic hazard and risk calculations worldwide and at all scales, from global down
to regional, national, local, and site-speciﬁc in a single software package.
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) calls for “decision-making on disaster risk reduction to
be based on solid and openly accessible scientiﬁc work”. GEM supports the SFDRR goals by contributing openly
accessible products for hazard and risk assessment and capacity development for risk reduction projects. GEM also
serves as a baseline or exemplar for the development of a broader multi-hazard framework for risk assessment insupport of a holistic and comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction.

LLegal statements
This map was created for dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for thedesign of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decision involving human life, capital andmovable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard in this map do not constitute an alternative nor dothey replace building actions deﬁned in national building codes. Readers seeking this information should consult
national databases. This hazard map is the combination of results computed using 30 hazard input models covering
the vast majority of landmass. These models represent the best information publicly accessible, and the GEM
Foundation recognises their credibility and authoritativeness. This hazard map results from an integration processthat is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation.

➜ Western Africa [WAF] - 2018
Developed by GEM.
• Authors: V. Poggi➜ South Africa [ZAF] - 2018
Developed by the Council of Geoscience, South Africa.
• Authors: V. Midzi, B. Manzunzu, T. Mulabisana, B.S. Zulu, T. Pule, S. Myendeki, G. W. Rathod• Website: http://www.geoscience.org.za
For models developed by GEM, see https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem/Sponsors and major contributorsTAIWAN
Earthquake
Model