COVID 2nd Wave in India - O2 Crisis, Mass Congregation,
Statistical Fallacy and Vaccination Conundrum

Prof. Chandan GhoshProf. & Head- Resilient Infrastructure
National Institute of Disaster Management
Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India

Oxygen Crisismanagement

Context• Medical profession, epidemiology of disease anddeaths other than Covid or vector borne diseases• The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed
our lives, business, real-estate, tourism, aviation…
industry……constructions• From mandatory mask-wearing to safe distancing, testing, tracing andisolating cases, so as to outwit, outplay and outlast the virus..but now
even after several courses of Vaccines, drugs, …

• we are completely taken aback with… an awe, worry
and colossal loss that ever have affected..themankind!

India and COVID-19

Mass congregation, Assembly Elections inMarch-April 2021 => relevance to 2nd
Wave Surge in India! ? Yes/No!

India & COVID Stats

The WHO estimates released in 2020 report on trends
for more than 160 diseases and injuries annually from2000 to 2019

Low vs. high Income – leading
causes of deathHospitals in Mumbai, India

Drug overdose Death in US

Some aspects Beyond ourperceptions• Is this pandemic - truly natural or motivated one?
• Why the more virulent 2nd wave after a gap of few months of
the 1st one - what mathematical/computational models inpresence of humongous DATABASE are up to?
• Is there projections for the 3/4th one in the offing, if so what arerudiments of footprints as on date?
• Health system, wellness, immunity perceptions and drugs where is the key for survival?
• Scope of arranging more health workers or more congruentplanning?
• Shortage of Oxygen & Essential drugs - production, supply,delivery, awareness campaign?
• Vaccination production, acceptance criteria and delivery gap how well all countries, including India, to cope up with?

Active cases andrecovery/deathtrendsIndia currently poignantly waiting for 3rdwave…?? Vaccination 40% of population

Infection Models – Vidyasagar (IIT-H) andAgarwal (IIT-K)
India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections building intoa new -- though smaller (1/4th of peak in May 2021) -- virus
wave that may peak in October 2021

India 31.1 million cases, 0.431
million death (official) <1.3%• regional lockdowns, reduced social interaction andan increasing number of antibodies against Covid
among the general population were helping to bring
down the infection rate in India. Vaccinations too
have helped to continue the downward trend incases.
• A national blood serum survey which tests for
antibodies (known as a sero survey) was released on
Tuesday which showed that two-thirds of India’s
population have antibodies against Covid

Pandemic - panoramaVaccine Conundrum – unassuming
apprehensions and maddening world!

Global Issue• Currently, just over one billion people aroundthe world are fully vaccinated against COVID19, with many countries, particularly in Africa
and South America, yet to start widespreadrollouts due to lack of supply.
• "Thus, a truly global vaccination effort may benecessary to reduce the chances of a global
spread of a resistant strain.“ (???)• But ultimately, dealing with the emergence of a
vaccine escape strain is really a global issue, nota national one…!!!

Roadmap for the Country in terms of :• 1. Meeting up the demands and supply ofvaccines• 2. Alternative therapy, precaution and citizen
friendly approaches• 3. Systematic lockdown and opening or any
other approaches• 4. Contemplating into adopting natural means
to cure from the root cause – where India has
the enormous potential!

Cleaning water (Natural/Ayurveda ways), land, air..key tosustainability (cost: less than Electric Power bill for
STP/day/hector (100mx100m) area of water body)

Conclusions• A national antibody survey by the Indian Council ofMedical Research study last month found that twothirds of Indians above the age of six had been
exposed to the coronavirus.
• The next wave is likely to be smaller than the second
wave that peaked at a record 400,000-plus dailycases on May 7, 2021 and declined sharply
thereafter.
• But the forecast still underscores the need for India
to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy
surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots
and stay vigilant through genome sequencing; given
the potential for new variants to emerge.

India – a revolution taking place in erosion
control & landslides by Vetiver Grass

Thank you
http://disasterresilientindia.blogspot.in/https://www.facebook.com/chandan.ghosh.9887117
https://twitter.com/cghosh24
email: cghosh24@gmail.com

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