Slide No. 1

日本安全保障貿易学会 第15回研究大会「現下の米中関係と投資規制」"Vacillating Sino-U.S. Relations and FDI Regulations"
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
研究主幹 栗原 潤
Jun Kurihara
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
Kurihara.Jun@gmail.com

2013年3月2日/March 2, 2013同志社大学/Doshisha University
京都市上京区/Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto©2013 Jun Kurihara
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in
any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the author.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are thoseof the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CIGS.

Slide No. 2

ご報告の構成/Structure of the Study
1. はじめに/Introduction
海外直接投資と国防産業基盤/
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Defense Industrial Base (DIB)

2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境/
A Politico-Economic Climate Formulating FDI Regulatory Policies
経済的相互依存の中で高まる相互不信/
Growing Mutual Suspicions amidst
Pervasive Economic Interdependence

3. 米国の対内直接投資規制/U.S. Inward Investment Regulations
最近の米国外国投資委員会(CFIUS)の活動に関する評価/
Evaluations of Recent CFIUS Activities

4. 残された課題:三一重工・華為問題を超えて/Issues on the Horizon:
Beyond the Cases of Sany and Huawei
アジアの政治経済制度と中米両国の国内政治/
Asia’s Politico-Economic System and Domestic Politics of China and America

1. はじめに1. はじめに/Introduction

Slide No. 3

海外直接投資と国防産業基盤/Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Defense Industrial Base (DIB)(1) グローバル化の容赦ない深化/Relentless Globalization :サイバー関連技術・運輸関連技術と規制政策/
Cyber and Transportation Technologies, and Regulatory Policies(2) 両用技術の適用分野の拡大/
Growing Application of Dual-Use Technologies :国防政策と産業政策との境界が不明瞭化/
Blurring Distinction between Defense and Commercial Technology Policies(3) 規制対象領域の拡大と改定期間の短期化/
Expansion of Regulated Areas and Interval Shortening ofRegulatory Changes :行政、技術、金融分野の学際的アプローチ/
Interdisciplinary Approaches Combining
Administrative, Technological, and Financial Expertise2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

Slide No. 4

直接投資におけるホスト国の筆頭は中米両国/
Largest Host Countries Are China and the United States

世界の多国籍企業が有望視するホスト国は中国、米国、インド、インドネシア、ブラジル、オーストラリア/
Top Prospective HostCountries for 2012-2014 Are
China, the United States, India,Indonesia, Brazil, and Australia.

有望市場は、BRICSとアジア/Promising Markets Are
BRICS and Asia
“Asean Chief: Southeast Asia
Is on the Rise”
Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2012

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report (WIR 2012), July 2012, p. 22.

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

Slide No. 5

収斂するG-3(日米欧)と新興市場?/
G-3 (Japan, U.S. and EU) Converging with Emerging Markets?
薄れゆくG3の経済的優位性/Waning G-3 Economic Supremacy
世界の直接投資フロー (3ヵ年移動平均)/Global FDI Flows (3-yr moving average)

75%

50%

25%

Source: Thilo Hanemann et al., “China Invests in Europe,” June 2012, p. 10を基に作成

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

台頭するBRICS?/Rise of BRICS? (1)Slide No. 6

薄れゆくG3の経済的優位性/Waning G-3 Economic Supremacy

2012年3月29日: BRICS、ドル依存体質脱却を合意/
Mar. 29, 2012: “BRICS Agree to Local Currency Credits
to Ease Dollar Dependency”(Mar. 29, 2012) (http://rt.com/business/news/brics-currencies-credit-deal-755/)

2012年10月2日: BRICS銀行
設立でBRICSのシンクタンク合意/
Oct. 2, 2012: “Think Tanks Reach
Consensus on Setting Up BRICS Bank”(Oct 2, 2012, 02.04PM IST) (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/201210-02/news/34218096_1_brics-bank-brics-summit-south-africa-brics)“Think tanks of BRICS bloc reachedconsensus on creating a BRICS developmentbank to complement existing global financial
institutions like World Bank. Liu Youfa (刘友法), deputy director of the China InstituteSource: http://news.jschina.com.cn/system/2012/12/04/015436531.shtml of International Studies (CIIS) (中国国际问题研究所), said, "At the previous forum
before the BRICS summit meeting in March,
we were still discussing whether to create
this bank, but now we are talking about how
to create this bank.”

2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

台頭するBRICS?/Rise of BRICS? (2)Slide No. 7

薄れゆくG3の経済的優位性/Waning G-3 Economic Supremacy

米コロンビア大学、BRICs関連の国際会議を開催/
Nov. 27, 2012: BRICs:“The Quest for Global Growth”/«БРИКС: запрос на глобальный рост»:Columbia University BRICLab Conference,
Columbia University, New York City2012年12月4日: 朱光耀財政副部長、BRICS間でのマクロ経済協調強化を要請/
Dec. 4, 2012: “Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhū Guāngyào Call on
BRICS to Strengthen Macroeconomic Coordination(at the First Forum on the Economic Situations of BRICS Countries)”(2012-12-04 17:12 ) (http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2012-12/04/c_113904995.htm)[Chinese Title: “朱光耀呼吁金砖国家加强宏观经济政策协调”](2012-12-04 17:12 来源：新华网)“中国财政部副部长朱光耀4日在北京表示，共同应对全球经济不确定性带来的风险。”

2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

Slide No. 8

経済の相互依存は平和をもたらすか?/
Can Economic Interdependence Bring about Peace?
現在の日中関係と歴史的教訓(20世紀初頭の英独関係)/

Current Japan-China Relationship andHistorical Experience (Anglo-German Relationship in the Early 20th Century)

領土問題でくすぶる日中関係の中での直接投資動向:“日本对华投资逆势增长/Japan’s Growing Investment in China”«新华网» [Xinhua], Sept. 7, 2012.

20世紀初頭の英独関係を振り返りつつ、現在を考える:“Industry itself was divided: between 1904 and 1914 Britain was Germany’s best
overseas customer, and Germany was Britain’s second best; twenty-two out offorty international producer cartels were Anglo-German organizations.”(Hew Strachan, The First World War, Volume I: To Arms, New York: Oxford University Press, 2001, p. 23;
see also, Zara Steiner, Britain and the Origins of the First World War, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1977, pp. 60-64.)“The United States and China . . . are tied together as never before by flows ofgoods, services, capital, people, and ideas. . . . Unfortunately, there is little reason
in theory or historical experience to believe that economic links alone aresufficient to create lasting stability.”(Aaron L. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, New York:W.W. Norton, p. 47; see also, Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979, pp. 129-160.)

2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

台頭するBRICS?/Rise of BRICS? (3)Slide No. 9

近代化を急ぐ中国海軍(PLAN)/Swiftly Modernizing PLA NavyShenyang J-15/Flying Shark (歼-15/飞鲨)

経済大国中国の空母保有/
Nov. 21, 2012: “Китаю нужныавианосцы (China Needs AircraftCarriers)”(21 Nov., Взгляд.ру (vz.ru))“China begins to convert its economic power into military one
and building its own aircraft carriers is just one element ofthe program.”(По мнению директора Центра мировой торговли оружиемSource: Игоря Коротченко (According to the Director of the Centre for Analysis of(ЦАМТО)http://chinadailyma
World Arms Trade (CAWAT) Igor Korotchenko))

the Brazilian NAe São Paulo (“圣保罗”号)

the Liaoning (“辽宁”号)

il.com/2012/11/26/
china-j-15-fighterssuccessful-takeoff-and-landing-onaircraft-carrier/Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/asia/story/china-navy-takesdelivery-first-aircraft-carrier-report-20120923

Source: war.163.com/12/1030/08/8F25T6MJ00014OMD.html

2. 投資規制を巡る政治経済環境

原子力エネルギーの将来はアジア/
Future of Atomic Energy Lies in Asia

Slide No. 10「福島の悲劇」にもかかわらず、アジアは核エネルギーに熱い視線を注ぐ/

Despite the Fukushima Tragedy, Asia Remains Enthusiastic about Nuclear Energy
The World’s Nuclear Reactors (as of January 2013)
No. of Reactors
Electricity GenerationCountry
World
United States
FranceAsia
Japan
South Korea
India
China
VietnamIndonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
North Korea*(Excl. West and Central Asia)

Operable
435
104
58
109
50
2320
1600000Source: World Nuclear Association (WNA)

Under
Construction

65
1143
3472900000

Planned

Proposed

Billion kWh

167
13190
1051851
42000317
131182503912064521

2,518.0
790.4
423.5
415.5
156.2
147.8
28.9
82.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)3. 米国の対内直接投資規制

CFIUSの活動/CFIUS Activities (1)Slide No. 11

CFIUS notifications and investigations 1996-2011

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Notification

Investigations

Notices
withdrawn

Presidential
decision

55
62
65
79
72
55
43
41
53
64
111
138
155
65
93
111

00
20
1
1022
1
7
623
25
35
40

00
200
1012
15552
650000100100200000

Source: Edward M. Graham and David M. Marchick, U.S. National Security and Foreign Direct Investment, 2006, p. 57
and the CFIUS Annual Reports to Congress.

3. 米国の対内直接投資規制

CFIUSの活動/CFIUS Activities (2)Slide No. 12

CFIUS notifications 2009-2011: Manufacturing
業

種NAICS

2009-2011年計 2009-2011, Total
Manufacturing
製造業
Computer and Electronic Products

334

Computer and Peripheral Equipment Mfg.

3341

Communications Equipment Mfg.

3342

Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Mfg.

3344

Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical and Control Instruments Mfg.

3345

Mfg. and Reproducing Magnetic and Optical Media

3346

Transportation Equipment

336

Motor Vehicle Parts Mfg.

3363

Aerospace Product and Parts Mfg.

3364

Ship and Boat Building

3366

Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component

335

Machinery333

Chemical

325

Source: CFIUS Annual Report to Congress, 2011, December 2012, pp. 4-7.

No. ofNotification

269
10653
4161418123516210843. 米国の対内直接投資規制

CFIUSの活動/CFIUS Activities (3)Slide No. 13

CFIUS notifications 2009-2011: Non-Manufacturing
業 種NAICS

2009-2011年計 2009-2011, Total
Non-Manufacturing
非製造業
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

541

Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services

5413

Computer Systems Design and Related Services

5415

Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services

5416

Scientific Research and Development Services

5417

Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

5419

Publishing Industries (Except Internet)

511

Telecommunications

517

Wired Telecommunications Carriers

5171

Wireless Telecommunications Carriers (Except Satellite)

5172

Satellite Telecommunications

5174

Utilities

221

Mining and Support Activities for Mining

212/213

Source: CFIUS Annual Report to Congress, 2011, December 2012, pp. 4, 8-11.

No. ofNotification

269
16352
1423
8
52181524625
13

3. 米国の対内直接投資規制

CFIUSの活動/CFIUS Activities (4)Slide No. 14

CFIUS notifications 2009-2011
Notification
総計

2009-2011年計
英国
フランス
カナダ
中国
日本
イスラエル
オランダ
スウェーデン
オーストラリア
スペイン
ドイツ
ロシア
シンガポール
U.A.E.

269
68
27
27
20
18
18
14
14
8
7
64
33

製造業

金融・情報・サービス

鉱業・公益・
建設

商業・運輸

106
32
18
1
128
62
51
0
200
395
28
1
103
6
10
8
92
54
200

48
54
14
530
20
2201
3020
3420
1
2
10
300
100Source: CFIUS Annual Report to Congress, 2011, December 2012, pp. 15-16.

3. 米国の対内直接投資規制

中国の対カリフォルニア州投資/
China’s FDI in California

Slide No. 15

Chinese Investment in California 2000-2011

2000-2011年計Software and IT Services
Leisure and Entertainment
Communications Equipment and Services
Electronic Equipment and Components
Alternative/Renewable Energy
Semiconductors
Furniture and Wood Products
Biotechnology
Food, Tobacco, and Beverage
Consumer Electronics

件数

うちM&A

金額
($. Mil.)

うち
M&A

156
21519
16
173
42
4547
13
3511311321,328
526
167
13911810281222120171,081
517
15276
100
5381
19201814Source: Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann, “Chinese Investment in California,” October 2012, p. 34.

3. 米国の対内直接投資規制

Slide No. 16

中国の対カリフォルニア州投資の特徴/
China’s FDI in California with Chinese Characteristics
在米華僑と繋がりを見せる中国の対米投資/
FDI though Cultural and Historical Ties
在カリフォルニア華僑の人口集積地における投資の集中:“It is notable that the most popular Chinese investment destinations
in California all possess large populations of individuals with Chinese
ancestry. The most popular target of Chinese investment, the Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metropolitan area, has the largest
population of individuals of Chinese ancestry in all of California. The
second most popular destination by number of deals is the San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, which contains thehighest proportion of Chinese residents to total population in all ofCalifornia. The cultural and historical ties preferred targets forChinese investor.”
Source: Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann, “Chinese Investment in California,” October 2012, p. 30.

4. 残された課題: 三一重工・華為問題を超えて激動するアジアの国際関係/
Asia’s Volatile International Relations (1)Slide No. 17

1．アジアの政治的安定性は維持できるか/
Asia’s Political Stability: How to Avoid A Tragedy of the Commons
米中対立の危険性“How much a prudent U.S. should hedge depends on Chinese intentions,which has been opaque. . . . [I]t has expressed concerns about China’s
growing threat to American mastery of the sea lanes, including the waters
around Taiwan. It has also voiced concerns about Chinese measures [incl. theBěidǒu (北斗)] that could endanger U.S. and GPS satellites in space.
Military-to-military contacts can limit misperceptions andmisunderstandings.” [Graham Allison, 2009]
アジアにおける紛争防止・紛争解決のための国際政治システムの欠如“ASEAN is going through one of its sweetest moments in its history because it
has four suitors [the United States, China, Japan, and India] interested in it.
It could be a battlefield if the competition is military, but if it is economic itwill be wonderful for south-east Asia. . . .”[Kishore Mahbubani, Quoted in the Financial Times, 2010]
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

4. 残された課題: 三一重工・華為問題を超えて激動するアジアの国際関係/
Asia’s Volatile International Relations (2)Slide No. 18

2. 未成熟なアジアの政治経済制度/
Asia’s Politico-Economic Institutional Framework:
To Develop Amicable Relations among Amiable Persons, or at least,Cooperation without Friendship (as Robert Axelrod suggests).

中国による対外経済制裁の可能性“[I]n 10 to 20 years, China will be a major exporter of high-technology—it
may impose restrictive sanctions on those that previously imposed them onus!” [Shěn Dīnglì (沈丁立), Quoted by David Shambaugh, 2010]「アングロサクソン化」したアジアの指導者による安定的な制度確立は可能か?
“We recognize an undeniable fact that Richard Li, Anthony Salim, . . .
Tommy Koh, . . . Asians with Western first names play a prominent role in
the world. . . . Globalization, a rising China, and the expansion of crossborder flows of people, goods, capital, and information may lead to “AngloSaxonization” of China’s communist elite.”[Takashi Shiraishi (白石隆) and Hau Caroline, 2012]
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

4. 残された課題: 三一重工・華為問題を超えてSlide No. 19

中国国内における対外姿勢
大別して7つの流れ

国粋主義
対外関係

現実主義

大国重視

孤立主義/自立自尊

アジア重視

途上国重視

選択的 グローバル派
多国主義

対外関係に配慮した行動

基本原理 中華主義 便宜主義 大国重視

アジア重視

南北問題
便宜主義 平和主義重視

対米姿勢

反米

反米

一部親米

反米

反米

反米

親米支持層

CCP,PLA, 庶民CCP,PLA, エリート

官僚

実務家

官僚

戦略的実務家

理想主義者

盛衰

多数派
増大

多数派

少数派
衰退

少数派
拡大

少数派
拡大

少数派
拡大

少数派
衰退

Source: Toshimichi Nagaiwa and Jun Kurihara, “Japan-China Military Confidence Building Measures (Part I) —History, PoliticoEconomic Environment, and Evaluation—,” Cambridge Gazette: Politico-Economic Commentaries No. 7 (October 11, 2011), Tokyo:
Canon Institute for Global Studies, p. 9 Table 1. The table is, in principle, based on an analysis in the paper of David Shambaugh, “Copingwith a Conflicted China,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Winter 2011), pp. 7-27.
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

4. 残された課題: 三一重工・華為問題を超えて米国国内の(概念的)戦略的オプション

Slide No. 20

米国の中に存在する様々な「中国観」
理論的分類

現実主義者
(Realist)

リベラリスト(Liberalist)

主張

楽観派 中国の意志も力も限界がある。
悲観派 中国の意志も力も米国をおびやかす。Security Dilemmaを意識。
楽観派 経済的相互依存関係と国際的制度設計を重視。中国の民主化に期待。
悲観派 中国は民主化過渡期の専制主義。米国は犠牲的精神を持つべき。

歴史・規範 楽観派 中国の漸次的発展に期待。
尊重派(Constructivist) 悲観派 米国とは歴史も価値観も違う。
Source: Jun Kurihara and James L. Schoff, “For Whom Japan’s Last Dance Is Saved—China, the United States, or Chimerica?,”
Cambridge Gazette: Politico-Economic Commentaries No. 4 (March 29, 2010), Tokyo: Canon Institue for Global Studies, p. 7, Table 1.

Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)Slide No. 21

日本安全保障貿易学会 第15回研究大会「現下の米中関係と投資規制」"Vacillating Sino-U.S. Relations and FDI Regulations"
ご清聴有難うございました/Thank You!

キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
研究主幹 栗原 潤
Jun Kurihara
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
Kurihara.Jun@gmail.com©2013 Jun Kurihara
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in
any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the author.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are thoseof the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CIGS.