©IEEJ 2023

DECARBONIZINGASIAN ECOMONIES
WITH
GREEN HYDROGENJANUARY 2023
THE INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS,
JAPAN©IEEJ 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY ....................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 2. SCOPE OF STUDY AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 5
2.1.

SCOPE OF STUDY.............................................................................................................................................. 5

2.2.

METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 5

2.2.1.

Potential hydrogen demand ................................................................................................................... 5

2.2.2.

Potential hydrogen supply...................................................................................................................... 7

CHAPTER 3. MAJOR FINDINGS............................................................................................................................... 9
3.1.

REVIEW OF CLIMATE AND HYDROGEN POLICIES IN ASEAN MEMBER COUNTRIES ........................................................... 9

3.1.1.

A review of climate policies .................................................................................................................... 9

3.1.2.

Renewable energy targets ..................................................................................................................... 9

3.1.3.

Hydrogen policies and roadmaps ......................................................................................................... 10

3.2.

THE ROLE OF HYDROGEN IN DECARBONIZING HARD-TO-ABATE INDUSTRIES AND TRANSPORT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES .......... 11

3.2.1.

Industries .............................................................................................................................................. 11

3.2.2.

Transport .............................................................................................................................................. 12

3.3.

POTENTIAL HYDROGEN SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................... 13

CHAPTER 4. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................. 15
4.1.

MEETING REGIONAL DEMAND .......................................................................................................................... 15

4.2.

EXPORTING GREEN HYDROGEN OUTSIDE THE ASEAN REGION ................................................................................. 18

CHAPTER 5. RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................................................... 19
5.1.

BUILDING AN INTRA-REGIONAL GREEN HYDROGEN SUPPLY CHAIN ............................................................................ 19

5.2.

FURTHER PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT ..................................................................................... 20

5.3.

JAPAN’S ROLE IN PROMOTING GREEN HYDROGEN DEVELOPMENT IN THE ASEAN REGION ............................................. 21

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................ 23
APPENDIX 1......................................................................................................................................................... 25
APPENDIX 2......................................................................................................................................................... 26
APPENDIX 3......................................................................................................................................................... 30

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AUTHORS
Hiroko Nakamura, Takahiro Nagata, Sichao Kan, Kentaro Hayashi,Yoshiaki Shibata
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

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DECARBONIZING ASIAN ECONOMIES WITH GREENHYDROGENEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Hydrogen has gained global attention as a key breakthrough for decarbonizing hard-to-abate
sectors. Low-carbon hydrogen can be produced from a wide range of resources. This diversity ofsources enables hydrogen production almost anywhere in the world.
The ASEAN region is struggling to set and achieve ambitious decarbonization goals. The
development of a green hydrogen economy in the ASEAN region can contribute to accelerated
region-wide transition to clean and sustainable energy, and thus the decarbonization of the region’s
economy. However, the region has yet to harness its great potential for renewable power, much lessgreen hydrogen production.
This study analyzes the potential of using green hydrogen produced in the ASEAN region to
decarbonize sectors - hard-to-abate industries and transport - for which electrification is not the
optimal solution.
Green hydrogen supply and demand potential in the ASEAN region
Based on IEA (2022b) and projections for 2050, potential hydrogen demand was determined byassuming that renewable power would be used in all sectors that can be electrified and that theremaining hard-to-abate applications would be covered by green hydrogen. High-temperature heat
demand in the industry sector and part of the transport sector (heavy-duty vehicles, and air, maritime,and rail transport) were included in the study.
Despite energy efficiency improvements, energy consumption will increase significantly in boththe industry and transport sectors in 2050, driven by economic growth. The potential hydrogen
demand of the entire ASEAN region is 152 Mtoe, or 40% of total final energy consumption across theindustry sector. The potential hydrogen demand in the transport sector across the entire ASEAN
region is 166 Mtoe, accounting for 44% of final energy consumption in the transport sector.
Since increased renewable power deployment should be prioritized in the ASEAN region, potential
hydrogen supply was evaluated under the assumption that renewable energy would primarily be used
to replace fossil fuel-fired thermal power plants, only after which the remaining renewable power
would be used to produce hydrogen. Based on the renewable energy potential provided in ERIA
(2021) and IRENA & ACE (2022), the authors derived the regional potential for green hydrogenproduction.

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Even under the assumption that renewable energy would cover both total power generation in
2050 and the additional power generation needed to accommodate further electrification demand in
2050 and beyond, surplus renewable energy is available for use in hydrogen production. ASEAN
countries collectively have the potential to supply three times the potential hydrogen demand in 2050
(Figure). Therefore, even in the most pessimistic case, there is an ample potential supply of greenhydrogen across the entire ASEAN region to cover regional hydrogen demand. Therefore, the intraregional trade of green hydrogen could offer a solution to the challenge of region-wide
decarbonization of hard-to-abate industries using local resources.

FIGURE. SUFFICIENCY OF POTENTIAL GREEN HYDROGEN SUPPLY (2050)

Opportunities and challenges for the ASEAN region
Green hydrogen production may change the geopolitics of the ASEAN region to some extent.
Low-income economies, such as Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia, will have the opportunity to
become the region’s energy supplier. However, most ASEAN member countries have yet to develop
national hydrogen strategies, or even include hydrogen in their national energy plans. Furthermore,
there are various challenges to developing the full renewable energy potential of the region. These
include the lack of financial support and channels, lack of experience and regulatory frameworks,
insufficient coordination among government agencies, and limited infrastructure, such as gridenhancement needs for massive renewable integration. The power development plans and2

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renewable power targets laid out by each country also fall substantially short of their renewable energy
potential. Therefore, policy measures will need to be put in place to harness their full potential.
Home to very limited energy resources, Japan is likely to continue to be an energy importer evenin the hydrogen era. The ASEAN region, given its proximity, is potentially a promising major supplierof green hydrogen for Japan, which aims to introduce 3 million tonnes of hydrogen in 2030 and 20
million tonnes in 2050. Not only is its proximity an advantage, but green hydrogen imports from theASEAN region will also contribute to diversifying its energy imports, and thus serve Japan’s energy
security.
Another consideration to be made is Singapore’s global importance as a bunkering hub,supplying almost 50 million tonnes of marine bunker fuel to vessels in 2021. A reasonable amount ofregionally produced e-fuel can be collected in Singapore from across the ASEAN region. This canpotentially offer large business opportunities for the ASEAN region.
Further promoting renewable energy development
For green hydrogen to be a realistic and optimal solution for decarbonizing the economy, therenewable power used in its production should be available in surplus, after being fully harnessed todecarbonize sectors whose carbon footprint can be lowered by using it directly. Therefore, investment
should first be targeted at developing renewable energy. To support this, it is essential that polices
are in place for the massive deployment of renewable energy in each country. This will help lower
renewable power generation costs and in turn bring down green hydrogen production costs, which ismost affected by power generation costs (IEEJ, 2021).
Japan’s role
Japan can play an important role in building and expanding the regional hydrogen market andthus bring costs down through close cooperation with ASEAN countries on hydrogen-related
technology development. Since the renewable energy market is yet to be fully developed in somecountries, players may be able to enjoy first-mover advantage in establishing the businessenvironment for renewable energy, and in turn for hydrogen. Japan's experience with relevant
infrastructure, transportation and storage technologies, laws and regulation, and safety standards canhelp develop ASEAN’s regional hydrogen market.
The year 2023 marks the “50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation.” Japan has
built many cooperation frameworks in place for supporting ASEAN countries’ energy transition. Under
these frameworks, Japan can also support the designing of aggressive but feasible decarbonization
policies with consideration of region-specific circumstances and needs. Such support could include
technological and financial support, in-depth studies to reveal local challenges and solutions, support
in formulating master plans based on such studies, and the implementation of stakeholder dialogue.

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CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
Given the urgent call to globally reduce CO2 emissions to net-zero by mid-century (IPCC, 2021), many
countries in the ASEAN region are struggling to set and achieve ambitious decarbonization goals.
Renewable energy and low-carbon hydrogen are key to decarbonizing their economies. The ASEAN
region bears great potential for renewable power, including solar, wind, and hydropower. These
resources can be used to produced green hydrogen, but this potential has yet to be sufficiently
explored. The development of a green hydrogen economy in the ASEAN region can contribute toaccelerating region-wide transition to clean and sustainable energy and raising its energy selfsufficiency, and in turn enhancing the region’s energy security.
Low-carbon hydrogen can generally be produced from a wide range of resources. This diversity
enables hydrogen production almost anywhere in the world. Yet, home to very limited energy
resources, Japan will need to rely heavily on imports for hydrogen as well. Due to its proximity, theASEAN region could promise to be a future supplier of hydrogen to Japan, depending on its potential.
In Japan, discussions on procuring hydrogen started in 2012, the year following the Great East
Japan Earthquake, when the country was faced with challenges in decarbonizing its energy system,
especially in terms of power generation. Japan continues to be challenged with social acceptanceissues and land constraints in increasing nuclear power generation and massively deploying
renewables. While Japan has made significant efforts to increase its renewable capacity, its critically
low renewable energy potential stands out in the global context (IRENA, 2021b). Therefore, having
considered hydrogen to be a breakthrough for decarbonization from a very early time, Japan was thefirst country in the world to formulate a national hydrogen strategy 1 and seeks to create hydrogen
demand of approximately 20 million tonnes in 2050 2.
The recent enthusiasm of the Japanese government and private sector has been inclined
towards importing blue hydrogen or blue fuel ammonia. However, this study will focus on greenhydrogen for reason explained in Section 2.1.
This study will explore the ASEAN region’s potential for using locally produced green hydrogento decarbonize its economy, focusing on its application in industry and transport. It will also look at its
potential to become a hydrogen exporter to areas outside the region, such as Japan.

1 Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan (2017) Basic Hydrogen Strategy
2 Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Japan (2020) “Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving

Carbon Neutrality in 2050,” https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2020/1225_001.html

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CHAPTER 2. SCOPE OF STUDY AND METHODOLOGY
2.1. SCOPE OF STUDYThis study analyzes the potential of using green hydrogen produced in the ASEAN region to
decarbonize sectors in which electrification is not the optimal solution. These include hard-to-abate
industries and parts of the transport sector.
The authors focus on green hydrogen, or hydrogen produced via water electrolysis using
renewable energy sources, including solar power, wind power, hydropower, geothermal power, andbiomass. Some ASEAN countries are home to fossil fuel resources and thus countries like Brunei
and Malaysia currently host projects to build international supply chains for blue hydrogen, produced
from fossil fuels but with the carbon generated during the process captured and stored. However, thisstudy does not consider blue hydrogen despite its availability for several reasons:First, given its smaller carbon footprint, green hydrogen will not be challenged by the increased
market and political pressure against using fossil fuels. Second, the recent energy crisis has revealed
challenges and disadvantages inherent to blue hydrogen. The price of blue hydrogen and its
derivatives risk being affected by volatile market fossil fuel prices, which can surge as witnessed in
the past year 3. Skyrocketing oil and gas prices may make green hydrogen increasingly competitive
and attractive, as renewable energy prices have consistently dropped regardless of oil and gas market
trends. Third, renewable energy can be found in a wider area and thus any country can become agreen hydrogen exporter by harnessing such resources. While blue hydrogen would be imported fromoil and gas producing countries, green hydrogen supply chains can be more diversified, reaching
beyond conventional energy exporters, and thus contribute to improving the region’s energy security.

2.2. METHODOLOGY
2.2.1. POTENTIAL HYDROGEN DEMAND
Hydrogen can technically be used for a wide variety of applications. However, it is unreasonable
to apply hydrogen when more cost-efficient solutions are available. Therefore, this study assumes
that hydrogen will be used in “hard-to-abate” sectors that are difficult to decarbonize throughelectrification. Potential hydrogen demand was determined by assuming that all hard-to-abate
applications would be covered by green hydrogen. The following hard-to-abate applications were

3 For example, the Fuel Ammonia Supply Chain Public-Private Task Force, METI (2022) analyzed thatwhen gas prices increase by USD0.5/mmbtu, ammonia prices increase by USD18/t-NH3.

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considered: high-temperature heat demand in the industry sector; and heavy-duty vehicles, and air,maritime, and rail transport in the transport sector. Some past studies (e.g. ERIA, 2019) have given
great consideration to using hydrogen in the power generation sector. However, the ASEAN region
has yet to unleash its renewable energy potential and should prioritize renewable power deployment
toward 2050. Only after the power generation sector has been decarbonized by renewable power,should surplus renewable grid power or unharnessed renewable energy be used for hydrogenproduction. Hence, this study did not consider hydrogen use in the power generation sector.
This study will evaluate potential hydrogen demand based on current final energy demand andprojections for 2050 using the following methodology:(1) Industry sectori.

Based on IEA (2022b), final energy demand in the industry sector in 2019 is identified for each
ASEAN country by industry and by energy type.

ii.

Based on an existing study (MRI, 2018), the share of high temperature (≥400°C) heat demandagainst total fossil fuel consumption is identified for each industrial sector (Table 1). Although
MRI (2018) analyzes Japanese industry, this study assumes that the energy consumption
structure in each industrial sector is not varied among different countries.

iii. Potential hydrogen demand is estimated by multiplying the total fossil fuel consumption in eachindustrial sector by the abovementioned sector-specific ratio. It should be noted that althoughheat demand comprises heating (burners) and steam production (boilers), the same conversion
efficiency is assumed for fossil fuel-based burners/boilers and hydrogen burners/boilers.
TABLE 1. SHARE OF ≥400°C HEAT DEMAND IN FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION BY
INDUSTRY

Iron and steel
Chemical and petrochemical
Non-ferrousmetals
Non-metallicminerals
Transport equipment
Machinery
Food and tobacco
Paper,pulp and printing
Wood and wood products
Textile and leather
Industry not elsewhere specified
Source: MRI (2018)(2) Transport sector

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98%
33%
98%
92%
44%
44%
12%
58%
58%
5%
44%

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i.

Based on IEA (2022b), final energy demand in 2019 is identified for each ASEAN country bymode of transportation.

ii.

For road transport, it is assumed that light-duty vehicles run on gasoline and LPG and will be
converted to battery electrical vehicles (BEVs). Therefore, they are excluded from the current
study. Heavy-duty vehicles are assumed to run on diesel. Heavy-duty trucks and buses that are
fueled with diesel today are likely to be replaced by fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) from theperspectives of travel distance and carrying capacity.

iii. Likewise, all fuels used in air, maritime, and rail transport represent potential hydrogen demand.
However, it should be noted that synthesized fuels (e-fuel) produced from hydrogen may bechosen for these modes of transportation.
iv. The fuel efficiency of fuel cell trucks and buses vary depending on the vehicle type and capacity
and can thus be larger or smaller than that of diesel vehicles. Hence, the same fuel efficiency is
assumed for FCEVs and diesel vehicles. The same assumptions are applied for air, maritime,and rail transport 4.
Based on the abovementioned methodology, potential hydrogen demand in the industry andtransport sectors in 2019 are estimated. Potential hydrogen demand in 2050 is estimated bymultiplying the potential hydrogen demand in 2019 by the ratio of final energy consumption in theindustry and transport sectors in the ASEAN region in 2050 to that in 2019 as forecasted in ERIA
(2021). Assuming that hydrogen will be introduced after low-carbon technologies commercialized
today have been deployed, estimations are based on the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) which
projects advancements in low-carbon technology deployment, instead of business-as-usual (BAU).

2.2.2. POTENTIAL HYDROGEN SUPPLY
Given that increasing renewable power generation should be prioritized in the ASEAN region,
potential hydrogen supply was evaluated under the assumption that renewable power generation
would primarily be used to replace fossil fuel-fired thermal power generation, after which the remaining

4 The fuel efficiency of conventional diesel-powered buses and trucks is 3.6~9.1 MJ/km and 3,.6~19 MJ/km(estimated by author based on data from Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan;
https://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/jidosha_fr10_000044.html), respectively, and that of FCEVs is 9 MJ/km(converted from 7.5kg-H2/100km (Hydrogen LHV: 120MJ/kg); Data source: Hydrogen Europe, "Green
Hydrogen Investment and Support", P.26, https://profadvanwijk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/HydrogenEurope_Green-Hydrogen-Recovery-Report_final.pdf). A more detailed evaluation would requireconsideration of the different efficiency levels of each vehicle type.

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renewable power could be used to produce hydrogen. The methodology provided below was followed
for the evaluation:i.

Renewable energy potential (potential installed capacity) 5 is estimated from existing studies(ERIA, 2021; IRENA & ACE, 2022).

ii.

The capacity factor of renewable power generation in each ASEAN country is derived fromIRENA Data & Statistics to calculate renewable energy potential (potential power output).

iii. Potential hydrogen supply is estimated based on the assumption that the renewable power
remaining after deduction of the 1) total power generation in 2050 and 2) additional power
generation needed to account for the electrification of certain final fossil fuel consumption in 2050
and beyond (in other words, final fossil fuel consumption less what can be replaced with hydrogen,or the potential hydrogen demand in the industry and transport sector estimated above) fromrenewable energy potential (TWh). Final energy consumption in 2050 is derived from APS
projections in ERIA (2021). Fossil fuel-fired thermal power generation abated using carbon
capture and storage (CCS) is likely to account for a part of total power generation; and therefore,
the assumption that all power generation will be covered by renewable energy results in aconservative estimate of potential hydrogen supply. The electric power required to replace fossil
fuel consumption is calculated using given conversion efficiency factors6. Producing hydrogenwith electrolysis requires 4.5 kWh/Nm3-H2=50.4 kWh/kg-H2.
iv. It should be noted that hourly renewable energy output variability has not been considered whenestimating the surplus power available.

5 Here, “potential” refers to the technical potential of renewable energy, which applies technology
characteristics and land eligibility constraints to their theoretical potential. Economic considerations have notbeen made. Details of the constraints considered vary among different studies.
6 In the industry and residential sectors, the efficiency of fossil fuel-based equipment and electrical appliances
are assumed to be 80% and 90%, respectively. In the transport sector, the efficiency of conventional vehicles
and electric drive vehicles are assumed to be 0.5 km/MJ and 2.8 km/MJ, respectively.

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CHAPTER 3. MAJOR FINDINGS
3.1. REVIEW OF CLIMATE AND HYDROGEN POLICIES IN ASEAN MEMBERCOUNTRIES

3.1.1. A REVIEW OF CLIMATE POLICIESMost countries in the ASEAN region have announced their ambitions to achieve carbon neutrality
in around 2050 yet face many challenges in achieving this goal. Carbon neutrality goals are supported
by nationally determined contributions (NDCs), many of which have been updated over the past two
years. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have included more ambitious conditionaltargets that can be achieved by sufficient support from developed countries.
Besides Singapore and Brunei Darussalam, which do not have coal-fired power plants in theirelectric power systems, Vietnam has pledged to phase out coal by the 2040s. Cambodia, Indonesia,
and the Philippines have also announced that they will not invest in new coal-fired power plant projects.
These countries plan to increase uptake of natural gas and introduce renewable energy in the longrun. (Appendix 1 provides a table of carbon neutrality goals, greenhouse gas reduction targets, andcoal phase-out policies in the ASEAN region.)

3.1.2. RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
Figure 1 presents the shares of different energy sources in the primary energy mix in each ASEAN
member country. All countries except for Myanmar rely heavily on fossil fuels. Biomass dominates
the renewable energy portion of the energy mix in all countries. Indonesia and the Philippines also
rely on geothermal energy (8% and 16% of the primary energy mix, respectively). Solar power andwind power currently account for less than 1% in all countries.

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FIGURE 1. PRIMARY ENERGY MIX IN ASEAN MEMBER COUNTRIES (2020)
Source: compiled by authors based on IEA (2022b)
Note:
1)

The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN), Lao DPR(LAO), Malaysia (MYS), Myanmar (MMR), the Philippines (PHL), Singapore (SGP), Thailand (THA), andVietnam (VNM)

2)

The labeled percentages represent the share of non-hydro renewable energy in the primary energy mix.

All ASEAN member countries have set up targets for increased renewable energy deployment(Appendix 2 provides details on renewable energy targets for each country). Countries that haverecently updated their energy policy have adopted more ambitious targets. Most countries will rely
greatly on massive deployment of solar PV to meet their targets. Indonesia, the Philippines, andVietnam seek also to introduce offshore wind power in the longer term.

3.1.3. HYDROGEN POLICIES AND ROADMAPS
Hydrogen has been mentioned in many national energy development plans as a promising
emerging technology that will support decarbonization. Yet, only Singapore has set out a hydrogenstrategy. Some countries are in the process of formulating hydrogen strategies or roadmaps. Other
countries have announced studies and pilot projects at the corporate level. Indonesia’s National
Energy Plan (RUEN) includes a general action plan for hydrogen development and Malaysia’s
National Energy Policy 2022-2040 includes initiatives to formulate a hydrogen roadmap, a national
strategy, and relevant regulations. It also aims to establish an internationally competitive hydrogenenergy hub in Sarawak in the long term (2031-2040). Brunei has concluded Memoranda ofUnderstanding (MOUs) with Asian countries such as Japan and Singapore on cooperation on building

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a hydrogen supply chain. (Appendix 3 provides for more details on hydrogen-related policies bycountry.)

3.2. THE ROLE OF HYDROGEN IN DECARBONIZING HARD-TO-ABATE INDUSTRIESAND TRANSPORT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES
Because of its potential as a feedstock, energy carrier and storage medium, green hydrogen promises
to be key to decarbonizing many sectors of the economy. As a fuel, hydrogen can be used in: a) fuelcell vehicles in the transport sector, b) power generation (starting with co-combustion of hydrogenwith gas or ammonia with coal and gradually shifting to 100% hydrogen), and c) in boilers andfurnaces in the industrial sector.
As aforementioned, this study focuses on the potential of using hydrogen in decarbonizing hardto-abate industrial processes and transport, which promise to have an economy-wide impact.
Hydrogen use in the electric power sector is not considered as the study assumes that renewableenergy will primarily be used for power generation. It should also be noted that replacing conventional
grey hydrogen applications have not been considered.

3.2.1. INDUSTRIES
Potential hydrogen demand in the industry sector is exhibited by country in Figure 2. Despite
improvements in energy efficiency, energy consumption in the industry sector will increasesignificantly in 2050 driven by economic growth. By country, potential hydrogen demand is largest inIndonesia (62 Mtoe), followed by Vietnam (39 Mtoe), Thailand (22 Mtoe), and Malaysia (12 Mtoe).
The potential hydrogen demand of the entire ASEAN region is 152 Mtoe, equivalent to 40% of total
final energy consumption across the industry sector.
By industry, the cement industry, followed by the iron and steel industry, has the largest potential
in hydrogen supply. In the iron and steel industry, potential hydrogen demand can include not only
high-temperature heat demand, but also hydrogen use in direct reduction iron (DRI) processes
resulting from conversion from conventional coke-fired blast furnaces. However, while blast furnaces
may be introduced in the future, the ASEAN region currently relies mainly on electric arc furnaces;
and therefore, this study does not consider the use of hydrogen as a reductant substitute. Potential
hydrogen demand in the cement and iron and steel sectors is largest in Indonesia, Vietnam, andThailand.

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80

OthersTextile and leather

60

Wood and wood products

Mtoe

Paper, pulp and printing
40

Food and tobacco
MachineryTransport equipment20

Non-metallic minerals
Non-ferrous metals
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050
2019
2050

0

BRN KHM IDN

LAO MYS MMR PHL

SGPChemical and petrochemical
Iron and steel

THA VNMFIGURE 2. POTENTIAL INDUSTRY HYDROGEN DEMAND (2019 AND 2050)
Note:
The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN); Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN); Lao DPR(LAO); Malaysia (MYS); Myanmar (MMR); the Philippines (PHL), Singapore (SGP); Thailand (THA); and Vietnam(VNM)

3.2.2. TRANSPORT
Potential hydrogen demand in the transport sector is presented by country in Figure 3. Hydrogen
demand will increase in 2050 with increased energy consumption in the transport sector driven by
economic growth. Given its large population, Indonesia is home to the largest potential hydrogen
demand, which will be 73 Mtoe in 2050. This is followed by Vietnam (29 Mtoe), Malaysia (21 Mtoe),
the Philippines (19 Mtoe), and Thailand (12 Mtoe). The potential hydrogen demand in the transport
sector across the entire ASEAN region is 166 Mtoe, accounting for 44% of final energy consumption
in the sector. By mode of transportation, road transport (vehicles) accounts for approximately 80% of
the total potential hydrogen supply.

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FIGURE 3. POTENTIAL TRANSPORT HYDROGEN DEMAND (2019 AND 2050)
Note:
The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN), Lao DPR(LAO); Malaysia (MYS), Myanmar (MMR), Singapore (SGP), the Philippines (PHL), Thailand (THA), and Vietnam(VNM).

3.3. POTENTIAL HYDROGEN SUPPLY
Figure 4 compares renewable energy potential with total power generation in 2050. RE P1 represents
renewable energy potential as analyzed in ERIA (2022), and RE P2 is based on IRENA & ACE (2022).
Both analyses include solar PV, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, biomass, hydropower,
and geothermal power. Even under the assumption that renewable energy will cover both total power
generation in 2050 as projected in ERIA (2021) and the additional power generation needed toaccommodate increased electrification demand driven by further electrification in 2050 and beyond,the renewable energy potential in most ASEAN countries exceeds total power generation. Therefore,
surplus renewable energy is available for use in hydrogen production.

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7,000
6,000

TWh

5,000

Additional power needed
Power Generation

4,000

Geothermal

3,000

Hydro
Biomass

2,000

Offshore wind

1,000

Onshore wind
Solar PV
RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050RE P1
RE P2
PG 2050

0

BRN

KHM

IDN

LAO

MYS

MMR

PHL

SGP

THA

VNM

FIGURE 4. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION
Notes:
1)

The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN); Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN); Lao DPR(LAO); Malaysia (MYS); Myanmar (MMR); Singapore (SGP); Thailand (THA); and Vietnam (VNM)

2)“Power generation” represents power generation in 2050, based on APS in ERIA (2021). “Additional power
needed” represents the power generation needed to accommodate the increased demand driven by further
electrification in 2050 and beyond, calculated by the authors based on an estimation of how much remaining
fossil fuel use in 2050 can be electrified.

3)

Solar PV will account for a significant share of renewable energy in the ASEAN region. Since solar power isavailable only during the day, this suggests a low capacity factor for electrolyzers, and thus high hydrogenproduction costs. However, if electrolyzer costs become sufficiently low, then this should not be a critical issue.

Across the entire ASEAN region, total power generation is projected to be 2,900 TWh in 2050
(ERIA, 2021). Additional electric power generation to accommodate electrification demand in 2050
and beyond will amount to 2,000TWh, calculated by the authors based on an estimation of how muchremaining fossil fuel use in 2050 can be electrified. Together total electric power demand will be 4,900
TWh. Given that ASEAN-wide renewable energy potential ranges between 11,000 (RE P1) ~ 25,000(RE P2) TWh, 6,000 ~ 20,000 TWh of renewable energy can be used for hydrogen production.
The potential for hydrogen production is especially large in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos PDR,
Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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CHAPTER 4. CONCLUSIONS
4.1. MEETING REGIONAL DEMAND
Based on the potential hydrogen supply (optimistic case) and demand concluded in Chapter 3, theauthors analyzed whether potential hydrogen supply would suffice potential demand in 2050 (Figure5). In all countries except Malaysia, as well as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore where both supply
and demand will be limited, potential supply exceeded demand. Myanmar and Thailand marked an
outstanding amount of potential surplus supply. In total, the ASEAN region bears the potential tosupply three times the potential hydrogen demand in 2050.

1,400
1,200

Green H2 production potential

Mtoe

1,000
800
H2 demand potential (Transport)
H2 demand potential (Industry)

600
400
200
0

BRN

KHM

IDN

LAO

MYS

MMR

PHL

SGP

THA

VNM ASEAN

FIGURE 5. COMPARISON OF POTENTIAL GREEN HYDROGEN SUPPLY & DEMAND(2050)Note:
The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN), Lao DPR(LAO), Malaysia (MYS), Myanmar (MMR), the Philippines (PHL), Singapore (SGP), Thailand (THA), and Vietnam(VNM)

Since there are many different approaches to defining renewable energy potential, depending on
which constraints to developing their full physical potential are considered, the sufficiency of potential
green hydrogen supply to meet regional demand in 2050 was analyzed for a range of cases. Figure

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6 presents the amount of surplus hydrogen supply ranging from the most pessimistic to the most
optimistic potential supply studied.

InsufficientSufficient

ASEAN
VietnamThailandSingapore
Philippines
Myanmar
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei
-200

0

200

400
Mtoe

600

800

1000

FIGURE 6. SUFFICIENCY OF POTENTIAL GREEN HYDROGEN SUPPLY (2050)
Note:
The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN); Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN); Lao DPR(LAO); Malaysia (MYS); Myanmar (MMR); Singapore (SGP); Thailand (THA); and Vietnam (VNM)

Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia will have sufficient hydrogen supply to cover domestic
demand. Other than Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, where demand will
exceed supply in all cases, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia may have a shortage of domestic
supply when the physical potential is not fully harnessed.
The entire ASEAN region will have a surplus supply of green hydrogen, ranging from 54~843
Mtoe 7. Therefore, even in the most pessimistic case (54 Mtoe surplus green hydrogen), there is anample potential supply of green hydrogen across the entire ASEAN region to cover regional hydrogen

7 It should be noted that this study does not consider economic growth beyond 2050. When energy

consumption increases with economic growth, the amount of surplus renewable energy available for hydrogenproduction will decrease.

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demand. Therefore, the intra-regional trade of green hydrogen could offer a solution to the regionwide decarbonization of hard-to-abate industries using local resources.
Green hydrogen production may change the geopolitics of the ASEAN region to some extent.
Low-income economies, such as Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia, will have the opportunity to
become the region’s energy supplier. However, as seen in Chapter 2, most ASEAN countries have
yet to develop national hydrogen strategies, or even include hydrogen in their national energy plans.
Furthermore, there are various challenges to developing the full renewable energy potential of theregion. These include the lack of financial support and channels, lack of experience and regulatory
frameworks, insufficient coordination among government agencies, and limited infrastructure, suchas grid enhancement needs for massive renewable integration. The power development plans andrenewable power targets laid out by each country also fall substantially short of their renewable energy
potential (Table 4). Therefore, policy measures will need to be in place to harness their full potential.
TABLE 2. COMPARISON OF RENEWABLE TARGETS AND POTENTIAL (GW)

IDN

Renewable power target

Potential (RE P1)

552 GW (2060)

1,884 GW

(proposed National Grand Energy Strategy)
MYS

18 GW (2035)

225 GW(MyRER)PHL

61 GW (2040)

963 GW(NREP 2020-2040)
THA

19 GW (2037)

378 GW(AEDP 2018)
Source: compiled by authors based on various sources, as indicatedNotes:
1)

The country codes used are as follows: Indonesia (IDN), Malaysia (MYS), Philippines (PHL), and Thailand
(THA)

2)

Renewable power capacity targets are compared with renewable energy potential of countries with large
potential in the most pessimistic scenario. Renewable power target for Indonesia is based on the proposed
National Grand Energy Strategy 8; for Malaysia, the Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap; for thePhilippines, National Renewable Energy Plan 2020-2040; and for Thailand, the Alternative Energy

8 MEMR (February 4, 2022, press release) “Indonesia to Introduce Grand Energy Strategy during G202022” https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/pemerintah-kenalkan-gsen-pada-presidensig20-indonesia

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Development Plan 2018. Vietnam has not been included as PDP8 has yet to be released as of January 31,
2023.

4.2. EXPORTING GREEN HYDROGEN OUTSIDE THE ASEAN REGION
In the entire ASEAN region, there will be 54~843 Mtoe of green hydrogen, which is equivalent toaround 10～300 Mt-H2. This implies that the region is a potential green hydrogen exporter.
Japan aims to introduce 3 million tonnes of hydrogen in 2030 and 20 million tonnes in 2050.The
ASEAN region bears the potential to become a major supplier of green hydrogen for Japan. The
proximity of the region to Japan will be an advantage. Furthermore, green hydrogen imports from theASEAN region will contribute to diversifying its energy imports, and thus serve Japan’s energy security.
Another consideration to be made is Singapore’s global importance as a bunkering hub. Singapore
is one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs, supplying almost 50 million tonnes of marine bunker fuelto vessels in 2021 9. Amid increasing calls for low-carbon vessel fuels led by the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) 10, green hydrogen will play an important role in decarbonizing marine fuels. The
Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore seeks to offer various low and zero-carbon fuel solutions to
support the bunkering needs of the global shipping industry (MPA, 2022). The MPA expects hydrogenand its carriers (including ammonia and e-methanol) as well as bio-LNG to potentially play importantroles in the decarbonization of international shipping in the medium to long term. If the surplus supplyof green hydrogen (around 50～850 Mtoe) were to be converted to e-fuel, the region would be able
to supply around 40～600 Mtoe11 of e-fuel. Hence, while in the most pessimistic case, the region will
not be able to produce enough e-fuel to fully cover Singapore’s bunker sales, a reasonable amountof regionally produced e-fuel can be collected in Singapore from across the ASEAN region. This canpotentially offer large business opportunities for the ASEAN region.

9 Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (n.d) Bunkering Statistics https://www.mpa.gov.sg/port-marineops/marine-services/bunkering/bunkering-statistics
10 The IMO aims to reduce carbon intensity (emissions per transport work) by at least 40% by 2030, pursuingefforts towards 70% by 2050.
11 A conversion efficiency of 70% is assumed.

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CHAPTER 5. RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1. BUILDING AN INTRA-REGIONAL GREEN HYDROGEN SUPPLY CHAIN
The ASEAN region possesses significant renewable energy potential substantially exceeding the
projected power generation in 2050. By harnessing this surplus renewable energy to producehydrogen, hard-to-abate industries and transport in the region can be decarbonized.
However, while some ASEAN member countries have sufficient potential to cover domestic
demand, other countries will see a shortage in hydrogen supply. In addition, areas with high hydrogen
demand are not always located close to potential production hubs; and therefore, new international
supply chains and networks will need to be built. By establishing an intra-regional supply chain anddistribution network, all ASEAN countries will gain access to green hydrogen.
Green hydrogen produced in the ASEAN region may not always be the cost-competitive option
compared to hydrogen produced in other regions of the world. However, while studies including IEEJ
(2021) have pointed out that the distance from the origin of the hydrogen to its destination does not
greatly affect the cost of hydrogen, limiting hydrogen imports from outside the ASEAN region willcontribute to enhancing regional energy security. Regional production will also enable hydrogendriven economic growth.
Yet, building an intra-regional green hydrogen supply chain will entail many challenges. First,
considerations will need to be made at the regional level regarding the preferred hydrogen carrier andmode of distribution. Many studies are currently being conducted globally on different hydrogen
carriers, including liquid hydrogen, methylcyclohexane (MCH), ammonia, and e-methane. The
advantages and disadvantages of each carrier will need to be carefully considered in light of various
factors, including cost, infrastructure availability, and end-use applications.
Another important consideration would be whether it would be more cost-effective to producehydrogen close to the renewable energy source for shipping via pipeline, lorry or vessel, or to transmit
renewable power through international transmission lines for hydrogen production at a so-calledhydrogen hub, ideally close to a port. IRENA (2020a) suggests that suitable transmission lines arerare and costly; and therefore, hydrogen carriers could enable the trade of hydrogen as molecules orcommodities. This would also contribute to developing the green hydrogen market in the ASEAN
region.
It is important that these decisions are made in consensus across the region so that the
infrastructure, including shipping and receiving ports, as well as storage facilities, match the preferredhydrogen carrier. Existing local laws and regulations or the absence of such instruments may become
barriers to the development of infrastructure or even the handling of hydrogen and its derivatives, as
they are currently mainly used in the refining, fertilizer, and petrochemical industries. As the green

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hydrogen market develops, a regional certification scheme for hydrogen that is consistent acrossborders will be essential in ensuring that there are no mismatches between the exporter and importer.
Many Japanese companies are frontrunners in exploring the development of a commercial
hydrogen supply chain with different carriers. Having succeeded in the international sea shipping ofhydrogen to Japan 12, they are currently scaling up their technologies. With more than eighty years’
experience in handling hydrogen, Japan is home to an established domestic liquid hydrogen
distribution network. Japan's experience with relevant infrastructure, transportation and storage
technologies, laws and regulation, and safety standards can help develop ASEAN’s regionalhydrogen market.

5.2. FURTHER PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENTFor green hydrogen to be a realistic and optimal solution for decarbonizing the economy, therenewable power used in its production should be available in surplus to that needed for more efficientuses. Renewable power should primarily be fully harnessed to decarbonize sectors whose carbon
footprint can be lowered by using it directly. Therefore, investment should first be targeted atdeveloping renewable energy to secure the surplus resources that will be needed to produce greenhydrogen.
To support this, it is essential that polices are put in place for the massive deployment of renewableenergy in each country. This will help lower renewable power generation costs, which remain and inturn bring down green hydrogen production costs, which is most affected by power generation costs(IEEJ, 2021).
One of the factors that has hindered the development of renewable energy in the ASEAN region
is fossil fuel subsidies. Many ASEAN countries have provided subsidies to make fossil fuels affordable
for the general public 13 . By lowering the cost of fossil fuels relative to renewable sources, such

12 The CO2-free Hydrogen Energy Supply-chainTechnology Research Association (HySTRA,

https://www.hystra.or.jp/en/) successfully demonstrated that hydrogen can be produced using Latrobe Valley
coal and a mix of biomass and transported to Japan as liquefied hydrogen. In 2020, the Advanced Hydrogen
Energy Chain Association for Technology Development (AHEAD) completed an international hydrogen supply
chain demonstration, bringing hydrogen from Brunei to Japan using the Organic Chemical Hydride method,which involves fixing hydrogen to toluene to convert it to methylcyclohexane (MCH) as a Liquid Organic
Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC).
13 In 2021, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam had fossil fuel subsidies in place. The total

subsidy as share of GDP was 1.5%, 2.7%, 1.0%, 0.6%, and 2.3%, respectively. Indonesia, Malaysia, andThailand have abolished transport oil subsidies in their fossil fuel subsidy reforms. (IEA, 2022a)

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subsidies can create an artificial cost advantage (Bridles & Lucy, 2014). The public funds allocated tofossil fuels should be invested in renewable energy. Later when green hydrogen is deployed, policies
can be put in place to incentivize the use of vehicles powered by green hydrogen-derived fuels.
Another challenge is the need to upgrade the power grid in ASEAN countries to enable theintegration of increased amounts of variable renewable energy, such as solar PV and wind power.
Despite ongoing discussions about co-firing ammonia in existing coal-fired power plants, theauthors did not consider this technology in the current analysis. This is because the process of
producing hydrogen by electrolysis and converting it to ammonia for use in coal-fired thermal power
plants will reduce the total energy efficiency to 20%.
It should be noted that the authors have not conducted an economic analysis of producing greenhydrogen in the ASEAN region. In 2050, the levelized cost of hydrogen in the region will not be ascompetitive as that of other regions and countries (IRENA, 2022b) 14. Therefore, importing greenhydrogen from outside the region may prove to be more cost-effective. However, regional productionof hydrogen for regional use of hydrogen will serve its energy security. Japan can play an importantrole in building and expanding the regional hydrogen market and thus bringing costs down throughcooperation with ASEAN countries on hydrogen-related technology development.

5.3. JAPAN’S ROLE IN PROMOTING GREEN HYDROGEN DEVELOPMENT IN THE
ASEAN REGION
Both the public and private sectors in Japan can contribute greatly to the development of renewableenergy in the ASEAN region. Since the renewable energy market is yet to be fully developed in somecountries, players may be able to enjoy first-mover advantage in establishing the businessenvironment for renewable energy, and in turn for hydrogen. Overseas hydrogen-related technology
development led by Japan to date have tended to focus on hydrogen carriers and other downstream
components of the international hydrogen supply chain. Increased investment and government
support in the earlier phases of the supply chain will not only help accelerate the decarbonization of
the electric power sector in the ASEAN region but also give Japanese actors increased access torenewable power for green hydrogen production. The proximity of the ASEAN region to Japan,
compared to other potential exporters is an advantage with a view to enhancing energy security.

14 The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) derived from supply-demand analysis of the ASEAN region is estimated to be

USD 2.0 based on the estimated hydrogen demand for 2050. This cost level is only competitive against Ukraine,Japan, and the Republic of Korea among the regions and countries evaluated.

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2023 marks the “50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation.” Over the years, Japan
has built many cooperation frameworks in place for supporting ASEAN countries’ energy transition.
Under these frameworks, Japan can also support the designing of aggressive but feasible
decarbonization policies with consideration of region-specific circumstances and needs. Such support
could include not only technological and financial support, but also in-depth studies to reveal local
challenges and solutions, support in formulating master plans based on such studies, and theimplementation of stakeholder dialogue.

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REFERENCES
Bridle, Richard and Lucy Kitson (2014). The Impact of Fossil-Fuel Subsidies on Renewable Electricity
Generation. International Institute for Sustainable Development. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/impact-fossil-fuel-subsidies-renewable-electricitygeneration.pdf
ERIA (2018). Demand and Supply Potential of Hydrogen Energy in East Asia. ERIA Research Project Report
2018, No. 01.. Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. Retrieved on December 19, 2022
from https://www.eria.org/publications/demand-and-supply-potential-of-hydrogen-energy-in-east-asia/
ERIA (2021). Outlook and Energy Saving Potential in East Asia 2020. Economic Research Institute for
ASEAN and East Asia. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.eria.org/uploads/media/Books/2021-Energy-Outlook-and-Saving-Potential-East-Asia2020/Energy-Outlook-and-Saving-Potential-East-Asia-2020-1504.pdf
ERIA (2022). Decarbonisation of ASEAN Energy Systems: Optimum Technology Selection Model Analysis up
to 2060. ERIA Research Project Report 2022 No. 05. Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East
Asia. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 from https://www.eria.org/uploads/media/Research-ProjectReport/RPR-2022-05/Decarbonisation-of-ASEAN-Energy-Systems-Optimum-Technology-SelectionModel-Analysis-up-to-2060-NEW.pdf
Fuel Ammonia Supply Chain Public-Private Task Force, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,(2022).“Fuel Ammonia Supply Cost Analysis (Interim Report),” meeting document from the Fourth
meeting of the Fuel Ammonia Supply Chain Public-Private Task Force (September 28, 2022), Retrievedon December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/energy_environment/nenryo_anmonia/supply_chain_tf/pdf/20220928_e0.
pdf
IEA (2022a). Fossil Fuel Subsidies Database. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/fossil-fuelsubsidies-database#)
IEA (2022b). World Energy Statistics 2022. International Energy Agency
IEEJ (2021) "The Economics of the Green Hydrogen Supply Chain,” Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/9883.pdf
IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport_small.pdf
IRENA (n.d.) Data and Statistics. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 from https://www.irena.org/Data
IRENA (2022a). Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal: Part I – Trade outlook for 2050 andway forward, International Renewable Energy Agency. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.irena.org//media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jul/IRENA_Global_hydrogen_trade_part_1_2022_.pdf

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IRENA (2022b). Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal: Part III – Green hydrogen cost andpotential, International Renewable Energy Agency. Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://www.irena.org//media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/May/IRENA_Global_Hydrogen_Trade_Costs_2022.pdf?rev=00ea390b555046118cfe4c448b2a29dc
IRENA & ACE (2022). Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN: Towards a regional energy transition (2nd ed.).
International Renewable Energy Agency & ASEAN Centre for Energy. Retrieved on December 19, 2022
from https://www.irena.org//media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_energy_outlook_ASEAN_2022.pd
f?rev=ef7557c64c3b4750be08f9590601634c
Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) (n.d). Bunkering Statistics https://www.mpa.gov.sg/portmarine-ops/marine-services/bunkering/bunkering-statistics
Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) (2022). Maritime Singapore Decarbonisation Blueprint:
Working Towards 2050, Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/Air%20pollution/Maritime%
20Singapore%20Decarbonisation%20blueprint.pdf
MRI (2018). Heisei 29 nen Shin-enerugi nado no sokushin no tame no kisho chosa (netsu no jukyu oyobi
netsu-kyokyu kiki no tokusei nado ni kansuru chosa) chosa hokokusho (Study report: FY2017 Basic study
for the accelerated deployment of new energy (study on heat supply and demand and the characteristicsof heat supply equipment)). Mitsubishi Research Institute & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Retrieved on December 19, 2022 fromhttps://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/11590486/www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000018.pdf

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APPENDIX 1
Climate goals in the ASEAN region
The carbon neutrality goal, greenhouse gas reduction targets, and coal phase-out policy set out
by each ASEAN member economy are compiled in Table A.
TABLE A. CLIMATE GOALS IN THE ASEAN REGIONCountry1)

Carbonneutrality
goal

BRN

2050

KHM

2050

IDN

2060

LAO

2060

MYS

2050

MMR

2050

PHL

-

SGP

2050

THA

20502)

VNM

2050

Reduction
target type
Relativeemissions
Relativeemissions
Relativeemissions
Relativeemissions
Carbonintensity
Other

2030 GHG reduction target (NDC)
Unconditional Conditional2)
targettargetRelativeemissions
Carbonintensity
Relativeemissions
RelativeemissionsBaselineyear

Coalphase-out
policy

20%

-

BAU

Yes

41.7%

-

BAU

Yes4)

29%

41%

BAU

Yes4)

60%

-

Baseline

No

45%

-

2005

Yes4)

Avoidance of
245 MtCO2

-

2.71%

75%

BAU

Yes4)

36%4)

-

2005

Yes

20%

25%

BAU

No

9%

27%

BAU

Yes

No

Source: compiled by authors based on NDCs and other sources
Notes:

1) The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN),
Lao DPR (LAO), Malaysia (MYS), Myanmar (MMR), the Philippines (PHL), Singapore (SGP), Thailand (THA),
and Vietnam (VNM)
2) Conditional targets are dependent on the availability of international support for finance, technology
transfer and development, and/or capacity building.
3) Thailand aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero carbon GHG emissions by 2065.
4) No new projects will be approved.
5) Singapore aims to peak emissions in 2030, which will lead to 36% reductions relative to 2005 in 2030.

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APPENDIX 2
Renewable energy targets in the ASEAN region
Brunei Darussalam: Under Brunei Vision 2035 15 , Brunei aimed to increase the deployment of
renewable energy up to 10% in 2035. This target was updated in its National Climate Change Policy 16,
which aims to have a 30% share of renewables, comprising mostly solar PV, by 2035.
Cambodia: The Cambodia Basic Energy Plan (BEP) 17 recommends a power generation mix of coal
(35%), hydropower (55%), and other renewable energy (10%) for 2030. This was updated in its LongTerm Strategy for Carbon Neutrality 18 published in December 2021, in which it pledged to increase
solar PV, hydro, biomass, and other renewables to 35% of the power generation mix by 2050. Solar
PV will account for 12%.
Indonesia: Under its National Energy Policy 19 enacted in 2014, Indonesia seeks to source 23% of its
energy mix with renewable energy by 2025 and 31% by 2050. The government has also announced
that it is formulating a National Grand Energy Strategy (GSEN) that proposes to have new andrenewable energy cover 100% power generation in 2060, when total power generation capacity will
be 587 GW, comprising 361 GW solar PV, 83 GW hydropower, 39 GW wind power, 35 GW nuclear
power, 37 GW bioenergy, 18 GW geothermal power, and 13.4 GW ocean currents power 20.

15 Wansan Brunei 2035, https://www.wawasanbrunei.gov.bn/sitepages/Home.aspx
16 Brunei Climate Change Secretariat (2020) Brunei Darussalam National Climate Change Policy,

http://www.mod.gov.bn/Shared%20Documents/BCCS/Brunei%20National%20Climate%20Change%20Policy.
pdf
17 General Department of Energy (GDE), Cambodia (2019). Cambodia Basic Energy Plan,

https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Cambodia%20Basic%20Energy%20Plan.pdf
18 Kingdom of Cambodia (2021) Long-Term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality (LTS4CN),

https://ncsd.moe.gov.kh/resources/document/cambodia-LTS4CN-En
19 Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia Number 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy,

Long-Term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality (LTS4CN), https://ncsd.moe.gov.kh/resources/document/cambodiaLTS4CN-En
20 MEMR (February 4, 2022 press release) “Indonesia to Introduce Grand Energy Strategy during G202022” https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/pemerintah-kenalkan-gsen-pada-presidensig20-indonesia

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Lao PDR: Lao PDR aims to increase the share of renewable energies to 30% of total energy
consumption in 2025 under the Renewable Energy Development Strategy of Lao PDR 21 published in
2011.
Malaysia: In 2021, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (KeTSA) set a target to reach a
31% share of renewable energy in the national installed capacity mix by 2025 22. In the Malaysia
Renewable Energy Roadmap 23, the New Capacity Target scenario achieves the abovementioned
national target and aims to reach a 40% share in 2035. This target supports Malaysia’s global climate
commitment to reduce its economy-wide carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 relative to2005 levels.
Myanmar: The National Electrification Program (NEP) 24 envisions 100% nationwide electricity
access by the year 2030. According to the U.S. International Trade Administration, the Ministry ofElectricity and Energy (MOEE) drafted a renewable energy law with the goal of generating 8% of thecountry’s electricity through renewable sources by 2021, raising its share to 12% by 2025 25. In April
2022, the Ministry of Information (MOI) and the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic
Relations (MIFER) of Myanmar issued a joint press release stating that the government is planningto accelerate development of renewable energy development while seeking to increase foreign
investment 26.
Philippines: The Philippines’ National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040 27 sets atarget of reaching a 35% share of renewable energy in the power generation mix by 2030 and a 50%

21 Lao People’s Democratic Republic (2011) Renewable Energy Development Strategy in Lao PDR

https://data.laos.opendevelopmentmekong.net/en/dataset/renewable-energy-development-strategy-in-lao-pdr
22 Department of Energy, Malaysia (2021). Twelfth Malaysia Plan 2021-2025 (RMK12),

https://rmke12.epu.gov.my/en
23 Sustainable Energy Development Authority, Malaysia (2021), Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap:

Pathway towards Low Carbon Energy System, https://www.seda.gov.my/reportal/wpcontent/uploads/2021/12/MyRER_webVer-1.pdf
24 World Bank (n.d.) “National Electrification Program,” https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-

operations/project-detail/P152936
25 International Trade Administration, (July 28, 2022) “Burma – Country Commercial Guide”

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/burma-energy
26 Bloomberg (April 22, 2022) “Myanmar Govt to Accelerate Energy Projects Amid Power Shortages”,

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-04-21/myanmar-govt-to-accelerate-energy-projects-amidpower-shortages-l29d0bp8
27 Department of Energy, Philippines (2022). National Renewable Energy Program 2020-2040,

https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/renewable_energy/nrep_2020-2040_0.pdf

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share by 2040. To meet this target, the Philippines will need to install another 102 GW renewableelectricity capacity by 2040 including 27 GW solar PV, 17 GW wind power, 6GW hydropower, 2.5 GW
geothermal, and 364 MW biomass.
Singapore: In February 2022, the Minister of Finance announced at Budget 2022 that Singapore will
aim to achieve net zero emissions by or around mid-century by progressively raising its carbon tax
from 2024 28. In the Singapore Green Plan 2030 29 launched in February 2021, Singapore announced
its ambition to increase solar energy deployment by five-fold to at least 2 GWp, which would coveraround 3% of projected electricity demand in 2030.
Thailand: Thailand’s Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018-2027 30 seeks to increase theproportion of renewable energy in Thailand to 30% (including imported hydropower) of total energy
consumption by 2037.
Vietnam: In 2015, the government announced the national development strategy for renewableenergy, aiming for renewable energy to account for around 32% of total primary supply and electricity
generation by 2030 and 43% by 2050 31. Targets are to be updated in the Power Development Plan
VIII (PDP8), which is still under discussion.
TABLE B. RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIESCountry1)
BRN
KHM
IDN

Current share(2020)
0%28%
26%

Target share(Target year)30%(2035)
35%(2050)
31%(2050)

Description
Brunei Darussalam National Climate Policy (2020) 32
Long-term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality (2021) 33
National Energy Policy (2014) 34

28 National Climate Change Secretariat, (February 18, 2022) “Singapore Will Raise Climate Ambition to

Achieve Net Zero Emissions by or Around Mid Century, and Revises Carbon Tax Levels from 2024”
https://www.nccs.gov.sg/media/press-release/singapore-will-raise-climate-ambition/
29 “Singapore Green Plan 2030” https://www.greenplan.gov.sg
30 Ministry of Energy, Thailand (2020). Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018 (AEDP 2018),

https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Alternative%20Energy%20Development%20Plan%20201
8-2037%20%28AEDP%202018%29%28TH%29.pdf
31 Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg, 2015, https://lawnet.vn/en//vb/Decision-No-2068-QD-TTg-approving-the-development-strategy-of-renewable-energy-2030-2050-2015-48915.html
32 Brunei Climate Change Secretariat (2020). op. cit.
33 Kingdom of Cambodia (2021). op. cit.
34 Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia Number 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy,

op. cit.

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16%

MYS

21%

PHL

18%

THA

35%

VNM

40%
Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER, 2021) 35(2035)
50%
National Renewable Energy Plan (NREP 2020-2040) 36(2040)
30%
Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2018-2027) 37(2027)
43%
Development Strategy of Renewable Energy of Vietnam 38;(2050)
to be updated in PDP8.
Source: IEA (2022b) and various other sources, as indicatedNotes:
1)

The country codes used are as follows: Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), Indonesia (IDN), Malaysia(MYS), Thailand (THA), and Vietnam (VNM).

Renewable shares and targets are provided for the power generation mix in each country, with the exception of Indonesia
and Thailand, for which the figures represent shares against the primary energy mix and total energy consumption,
respectively.

35 Sustainable Energy Development Authority, Malaysia (2021) op. cit.
36 Department of Energy, Philippines (2022). op. cit.
37 Ministry of Energy, Thailand (2020). op. cit.
38 Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg, 2015, op.cit.

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APPENDIX 3
Hydrogen Strategies in the ASEAN region
Brunei Darussalam: Brunei has yet to develop any national strategies related to hydrogen, but it has
concluded Memoranda of Understandings (MOUs) with Asian countries such as Japan and Singapore
on cooperation on building a hydrogen supply chain. Backed by funding from Japan’s New Energy
and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), the Advanced Hydrogen Energy
Chain Association for Technology Development (AHEAD) 39 successfully completed trials of theworld's first international shipment of Methylcyclohexane (MCH) and stable hydrogen extraction in
2020, when it delivered MCH produced in Brunei to Japan.
Indonesia: Indonesia’s National Energy Plan (RUEN) lays out its new and renewable energy
development plan until 2050, including a general action plan for hydrogen development, such as the
preparation of regulatory frameworks, technological and manufacturing capacity development, andincentives provision. In the GSEN, the government estimates that green hydrogen generation will be
introduced in 2031, gradually increasing to approximately 52 GW by 2060. That would be a 10%
contribution to the power mix 40.
In 2022, the German-Indonesian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (EKONID) launched theHydrogen Business Desk (HBD) 41 to provide information regarding the development of hydrogen,primarily green hydrogen in Indonesia. Indonesia also signed an MOC on Japan and Indonesia’senergy cooperation for the realization of realistic energy transitions that utilize technologies andoptions including but not limited to hydrogen and fuel ammonia 42. This has been followed up by anannouncement of Japan`s intentions to mobilize resources and funding from Japanese public
institutions together with local parties to support Indonesia’s energy under the Asia Zero Emission
Community (AZEC) cooperation framework 43 . Many corporate level agreements have also beensigned on various hydrogen-related technologies.

39 Advanced Hydrogen Energy Chain Association for Technology Development (AHEAD)

https://www.ahead.or.jp/en/
40 MEMR (February 4, 2022, press release) op. cit.
41 “Hydrogen Business Desk” https://www.hydrogen-indonesia.id/home
42 METI, Japan (Jan. 13, 2022) “Memorandum of Cooperation Between the Ministry of Economy, Tradeand Industry of Japan and the Ministry of Energy And mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia on theRealization of Energy Transitions” https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2021/01/20220113003/20220113003-1.pdf
43 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan (Nov. 14, 2022) “Joint Announcement on Asia Zero Emission

Community (AZEC) Concept” https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/100420486.pdf

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Malaysia: The Twelfth Malaysia Plan 44 encouraged the advancement of hydrogen technologies inthe transport sector and mentioned the formulation of a Comprehensive National Energy Policy underwhich the prospect of future growth related to energy, particularly on the potential of new energy fromclean and sustainable sources including hydrogen, will be explored. The National Energy Policy 20222040 45 includes initiatives to formulate a hydrogen roadmap, a national strategy, and relevant
regulations. It also aims to establish an internationally competitive hydrogen energy hub in Sarawak
in the long term (2031-2040).
A number of projects using hydropower to produce hydrogen have been jointly announced by
local companies and collaborators from Japan 46 , Korea, and France. Another cooperation
arrangement will conduct a feasibility study on leveraging the abundant solar resources of Malaysia
to produce and sell green ammonia 47.
Singapore: Singapore launched its National Hydrogen Strategy in October 2022 48. While it does notlay out quantitative targets, Singapore seeks to develop hydrogen as a major decarbonization
pathway to support its transition towards net zero by 2050. Singapore has concluded cooperation
arrangements in the hydrogen field with governments, such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, andChile. Several corporate-level MOUs have also been concluded to explore hydrogen supply chainsto bring low-carbon hydrogen to Singapore using different hydrogen carriers 49.

44 Department of Energy, Malaysia (2021). op. cit.
45 Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister’s Department, Malaysia, (2022) National Energy Policy 2022-

2040 (NEP2022-2040), https://www.epu.gov.my/sites/default/files/202209/National%20Energy%20Policy_2022_2040.pdf
46 For example, ENEOS, Sumitomo Corporation and SEDC Energy Sdn Bhd are considering establishinga CO2-free hydrogen supply chain using renewable power generated at hydroelectric power stations inSarawak, Malaysia to produce hydrogen and converting it into methylcyclohexane (MCH).
(https://www.eneos.co.jp/english/newsrelease/2020/pdf/20201023_01.pdf)
47 IHI (Dec. 15, 2022 press release) “IHI and Gentari sign MoU to explore Green Ammonia Productionand Sales in Malaysia”
https://www.ihi.co.jp/en/all_news/2022/resources_energy_environment/1198122_3488.html
48 Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore (2022). Singapore’s National Hydrogen Strategy,

https://www.mti.gov.sg/Industries/Hydrogen
49 For example, Sembcorp Industries, Chiyoda Corporation, and Mitsubishi Corporation signed an MOU

in 2021 to explore a hydrogen supply chain using MCH (https://www.sembcorp.com/en/media/mediareleases/energy/2021/october/sembcorp-industries-chiyoda-corporation-and-mitsubishi-corporation-sign-mouto-explore-supply-chain-commercialisation-of-decarbonised-hydrogen-into-singapore/); Itochu, EDF, and Tuas
Power signed an MOU on developing a green ammonia supply chain and exploring different applications,

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Thailand: The Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015-2037 (AEDP2015) 50 included hydrogenas part of the “Alternative Fuels” category with a target goal of 10 Ktoe for transportation by 2036.
However, AEDP2018 has excluded the category.

Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp

including for power generation and as a shipping fuel(https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/news/press/2022/221026.html).
50 Ministry of Energy, Thailand (2015). Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 (AEDP 2015),

https://www.eppo.go.th/images/POLICY/ENG/AEDP2015ENG.pdf

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