IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

Energy Policy in Japan---Challenges after Fukushima---January 24, 2013
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
CEO & Chairman Masakazu Toyoda

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

Table of Contents
1. Energy Policy before Fukushima
2. Challenges after Fukushima
3. Desirable Energy mix
4. Developments after the General Election in Mid-December , 2012
5. Possible energy cooperation in North East Asia
6. Importance of US/Japan Cooperation
7 .Conclusion
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited2

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1. Energy Policy before Fukushima

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited3

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) 3E as key elements◆ Energy Security◆ Environment( Climate Change)(国産度合)

Nuclear power as a domestic source(CO2排出量のグラフ)

self-sufficiency ratio

Nuclear power as an imported source◆ Italy
Costs
Japan
Germany France
US
UK
Canada◆Efficiency(Cost) Energy White Paper
Power
発電方式

Source◆ Energy density◆

Capacity
設備利用率
Factor（％）（％）
8.2～13.345
8.2～13.3
45
10.0～17.3 30～80
10.0～17.3 30～80
5.8～7.1
60～80
5.8～7.1 60～80
5.0～6.5
5.0～6.5 70～80
70～80
4.8～6.2
4.8～6.2 70～85
70～854646 1212
10～14
10～14 2020

発電単価（円／kWh）
Generation
Cost（yen／kWh）

水力

Hydro
石油
Oil
ＬＮＧ
LNG
石炭
Coal
原子力
Nuclear
太陽光
Solar
風力
Wind

Source: White Paper on Energy, METI
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

Prepared by IEE

4

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) A basic energy plan to address 3E was determined in 2010① :Primary Energy- Increasing the self-managed energy ratio (self-sufficiency ratio + selfdevelopment ratio) from 38% to ~70%
- Reducing CO2 emissions by 30% from the 1990 level(million kL)

632

592

About a 20% reduction in thegrowth of primary energy demand
resulting from economic growth
by implementing additional energy
conservation measures

Renewables, etc.

517

Nuclear power

Renewables, etc.

(13%)

Coal

Self-sufficiency ratio:
Approx. 40%

Nuclear power(24%)

Natural gas
Coal

(17%)

Oil

About a half of 60%
dependence on imported
fossil fuel should be selfdeveloped→ approx. 30%

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

Fiscal 2007 (actual)

Natural gas

(16%)
(3%)
Oil

(27%)

2030 (forecast)

5

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) A basic energy plan to address 3E was determined in 2010② ：Generation Mix- Building 14 reactors at new and existing sites and improving the operating ratio from 60% to90%- Increasing the introduction of renewable energy by 2.4 times
About a 30% reduction in the(by 15 times, excluding hydropower)
growth of electricity demand
from economic growth- Increasing the proportion of zero-emission power sources from 34% to ~70% resulting
by implementing additionalenergy conservation measures

10,000 kW(Unit: 0.1
billion kWh)Installed capacity

13,600Power generation
Renewables, etc.

Renewables,etc.

Zero emission
sources: 34%

Renewables,
etc.
Nuclearpower

Nuclear
power

Approx. 20%

Coal

Approx. 10%

LNG

Approx. 20%

Coal

LNG

Renewables,etc.

Approx. 40%
Nuclear
power

Coal

Zero
emissionsources
Nuclearpower

A part of coal-fired power Coalplants contain CCS.

Oil etc.

Oil etc.

Approx. 10%

Approx. 20%

Oil etc.

Approx. 50%

Approx. 10%
Approx. 10%
Oil etc.

Fiscal 2007
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

Fiscal 2030

Fiscal 2007

Fiscal 2030

6

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2. Challenges after Fukushima

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

7

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) The trust on nuclear safety was seriously damaged<Global shift in opinion on nuclear energy after Fukushima＞
Unit: %
Before（Pro: Con） After （Pro: Con）
①Japan
５２：２８
=>
３９：４７
②USA
５３：３７
４７：４４
③France
６６：３３
５８：４１④Germany
３４：６４
２６：７２
⑤Russia
６３：３２
５２：２７⑥Korea６５：１０
６４：２４⑦China８３：１６
７０：３０
Source: Galop International (April 19,2011)
Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) From 3E to 3E + S +M
a.

Energy Security* Geopolitical situation in Middle East continues to be
uncertain.
b . Environment* The importance of Global warming remains unchanged.
c.

d.

e.

Economic Efficiency* Nuclear energy seems to be less costly for Japan.
・・・・・・・・・But・・・・・・・
Safety* The challenge is whether nuclear safety is comfortablly
assured.
Macro Economic Impact* Appropriate energy mix should be found to minimize
the adverse effect on economic development

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited9

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

a. Energy Security① : Trend of Oil Prices
n
n
150

130

Crude oil price have remained at a very high level in 2012.
Average Brent crude oil price is forecasted at $105/B
 Average Brent crude oil is(US$/bbl)(+/1$10/B) for 2013$111.7/B (WTI $94.2/B)
Euro credit
欧州不安再燃で急落

最高値更新を続けた急騰局面
Historical

リーマンショック

Lehman
後の急落
shock

high

concern
イラン情勢、在庫低
Irannuclear
下傾向下で上昇issuesMENA危機を受The price level remained
at a historically very highlevel since 2011.

Brent exceeded $120/B in
February to March 2012
due to geopoliticalconcerns.



Although Brent fell since
May 2012 due toEuropean fiscal crises, itregained anothermomentum afterward.



Since October 2012,
Brent and WTI
maintained above $100/B
and $80/B, respectively.

Brent

“Arab
けての高騰
Spring”

110
底値からの反転

Recoveryfrom thebottom

90

WTI
70

50

ボックス圏相場
Bandedtrading

欧州経済変調Euro fiscal
下での下落
crisesJan-07
Feb-07Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08
Jul-08Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09
May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09
Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10
Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11
Feb-11Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12

30

Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

a. Energy Security②：Uncertainty in Middle East(eg. Sanctions against Iran)- Passage of oil through the Straitof Hormuz: more than 17 million
B/D (approx. 20% of worldwide oil
production; approx. 85% of oil
imported by Japan)- Passage of LNG through theStrait of Hormuz: More than 82.60
million tons (approx. 30% of world
LNG production; approx. 25% of
LNG imported by Japan)
Notes:- Based on Foreign Trade Statistics of 2010.
Imports from Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE are assumed
to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

- There are two sea lanes, each
two miles wide, one to the
Persian Gulf and the other tothe Indian Ocean.
- The two lanes are separated
by two miles.
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited11

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

b. Environment ( Climate Change) : Future Schedule for New Framework
Launched in theformer half of
FY2012

Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action

Working groupof theconvention

th Report of IPCC
The 5th(2014)

Review of thelong-term goals(2013-2015)21

Implementation of the Cancun Agreement(Transitional period)

AWG-LCA
Planned to becompleted by
COP18

Working group of
the protocol
AWG-KP

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

End of 2020

Ratification, conclusion andestablishment of bylaws by
each country

ＣＯＰ

ＣＯＰ
18

Efforts
to be
madeby 2020

End of 2015

Planned to be
adopted by 2015

Start of MRV (submission of biennial report, implementation ofreviews)
Establishment of climate technology center
Start of management of Green Climate Fund, etc.

Second commitment period of
the Kyoto Protocol(2013-2017 or 2020)

Legal framework participated by all countries
will come into force.

Framework
beyond2020

End of 201212

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

c. Economic Efficiency (Cost): Nuclear power seems less costly in 2030
Points to estimate costs
・ Model plant form (Based on plants which started to operate these 7 years, subsidies paid these 3 years, etc)
・ Including social costs such as cost for countermeasures against nuclear accident risks and political policy costs
・ As for models for 2020 and 2030, estimated the cost expecting increase of fuel cost and CO2 reduction cost, anddecrease of the price caused by technology innovation(Yen/kWh)(Discount rate: 3%)< Legend >Upper limit
Upper limit
Lower limit

Estimatein 2004

Model for2010

Lower limit
Model for
2030

Beforedeductingheat value

Air conditioner

Refrigerator
Incandescent
lamp

Scenario,
etc.

NuclearCoal
thermalWind power
LNG
Geothermal
Offshore,
thermal Onshore Gravity
base

Nuclear fuel cycle
current model

Scenariounder newpolicyScenariounder newpolicyUnchanged - Unchanged reduction
reduction

MicrohydroBiomass(Woody biomass
combustion)

Oil thermal
Scenariounder newpolicy(houses)Gascogeneration

Reference –paradigm shift

Scenariounder newpolicyPhotovoltaic

Capacity factor

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited(Source) Cost Investigation Committee,Dec.2011

Energy saving- The Cost Investigation
Committee was established toreexamine the generation cost
after the Fukushima accident.
- Due to reasons such as thecost of accident prevention
measures, the increase of
construction cost and therising crude oil price, the costsof thermal power and nuclear
power generation have risen
from the previously estimatedlevels. Even according to thelowest estimations, thegeneration cost was given as
follows:
8.9 yen/kWh by nuclear power,
9.5 yen/kWh by coal-fired
generation and 10.7 yen/kWh
by LNG-fired generation.
- As the presently confirmed
loss caused by the Fukushima
accident, 5.8 trillion yen wasadded to the cost of nuclear
power generation.
The additional cost of eachtrillion yen will raise thegeneration cost by 0.09
yen/kWh.

13

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

d. Safety① : Nuclear Policies of Major Countries
1) －① Consistently promoting●US：The government has been consistently promoting nuclear power in terms of security and more
recently, in terms of anti-global warming.
●France：It has been promoting nuclear power in terms of security. Even after the recent change inadministrations, its energy policy based on nuclear power has remained unchanged.
●Ukraine：It keeps nuclear option in order to prevent too much dependence on Russia, taking due
consideration for the Chernobyl accident. (The Prime Minister of Ukraine once said “only thewealthy nations can discuss elimination of nuclear power.”)●Korea：It has been consistently promoting nuclear power in terms of security and is very eager toexport nuclear infrastructure.
●China：It is promoting nuclear power to cope with the increasing electricity demand and to ensure
security, and more recently, in terms of anti-global warming.
1) －② Shifted to be pro-nuclear after declining nuclear popularity or moving back and forth between
pro- and anti-nuclear●UK：It used to put priority on market fundamentalism; however, it shifted to be pro-nuclear in termsof security and anti-global warming measures.
●Sweden：Although it once expressed to become a nuclear-free nation in response to the public
referendum results in 1980, it continues to use nuclear power because of being unable to get
future perspective of securing alternate power sources. The plant operator published areplacement plan in 2012.
2) Shifted to be nuclear-free after moving back and forth between pro- and anti-nuclear●Germany：After announcing to become a nuclear-free nation and then withdrawing such decision,
it announced again to phase out its nuclear power by the end of 2022.
●Italy： Although it announced to become a nuclear-free nation by the end of 1990, a bill to reintroduce nuclear power was passed in 2009. Then, it shifted again to abandon nuclear power in
response to the Fukushima accident.
14

Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

d. Safety②: The cause of the Fukushima accidentI) The Japanese Government’s
Nuclear Incident Investigation andVerification Committee①Safety measures/emergency response measures：Introducing new techniques and findings covering
complex disaster.
②Safety measures taken in the nuclear power generation
system：Severe accident measures③Preparation for nuclear disasters：Risk management system in time of a nuclear disaster④Measures to prevent/mitigate damages：Activities to disseminate risk information, monitoring,evacuation of residents, etc.
⑤International consistency：Consistency with the international criteria including
IAEA standards, etc.
⑥How the related organizations should be：Independence of nuclear safety organizations⑦Continuous investigation：Continuation of investigation activities, etc.

Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedII) The National Diet of Japan,
Fukushima Nuclear Accident
Independent Investigation
Commission①Supervision of a regulatory authority by the national
diet：Establishment of a permanent committee②Review of the government’s risk management regime：Operators shall have the primary responsibility on thesite.
③The response of the government to the disaster victims：Information disclosure, prevention of escalation ofcontamination④Supervision of the electric utilities：Preventing the operators to put undue pressure to theregulatory authority.
⑤Requirements of the new regulatory organization：Independence, high transparency, and expertise etc.
⑥Review of nuclear regulation laws
：Review and backfit based on the world latest
technologies.
⑦Utilization of independent investigation committee：Establishment of a third party committee in the diet.

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

d. Safety ③: Significance of International Standards<10 fundamental safety principles set out by IAEA>
Principle 1： The prime responsibility for safety rests with the licensees.
Principle 2： An effective framework for safety, including an independent regulatory
body, must be established and sustained by the governments.
Principle 3： Leadership in safety matters has to be demonstrated at the highest levels inan organization.
Principle 4： Only those facilities and activities whose benefits exceed radiation risks
should be justified.
Principle 5： Protection shall be optimized to provide the highest level of safety and it
shall be reviewed regularly.
Principle 6： Individual risk shall be controlled within the prescribed limits.
Principle 7： People and environment, present and future, must be protected against
radiation risks.
Principle 8： Primary means of the prevention and mitigation of the accident
consequence are the “defense in depth”. Good design and engineering features
providing safety margins, and diversity and redundancy must be introduced.
Principle 9： Emergency preparedness and response should be established.
Principle 10： Protective actions to reduce radiation risk must be justified and optimized.
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited16

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

d. Safety④： Way to Regain the Public Trust on Nuclear Safety
Abandoning safety myths and ensuring defense in depth：The risk of recurrence of the accident shall be reduced from 3 viewpoints under the public-private
partnership and radiation damage shall be prevented in case of accident.
a. Enhancement of Measures for severe accident and for station blackout etc.; Restarting only
the plants for which safety measures have been applied under
the previous safety regime－Emergency safety measures ＋ stress test
－Additional safety measures consisting of 30 subjects－Continuous progress of the safety regulation framework－Enhancement of countermeasures against emergency based on the idea that absolute safety
never exists.
b. Securing independence of the Nuclear Regulation Authority and restarting under the newsafety regime－Enhancement of the measures to secure safety and reinforcement of both hardware and softwarein response to the implementation of strict regulations and inspections－On September 19, the Nuclear Regulatory Authority was established, and Mr. Shunichi Tanaka thechairman of the Authority announced to review the above item a.
c. In addition implementing mutual verification of safety under the international cooperation …
Ensuring compliance with the international standards－Further contribution to the enhancement of the IAEA safety standards and taking initiative in
performing peer reviews－Performing mutual surveillance and sharing information on the best practice with the US and France
Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

e. Macro Economic Impact①: Vicious Circle due to Hollowing-out(The case for 2012)
Zero nuclear
power

Increase of fossil
fuel

Outflow of national wealthequivalent to 0.6% of GDP

Increase of ¥ 3 trillion
compared to 2010 level

Increase of ¥3/kWh

Rise in electricity
pricesIncrease by 15%(Increase of ¥ 10,800/household)

Deterioration ofbalance of trade

Decline in international
competitiveness

Increase by 20%

Increasing burden
on households

Increasing burden on
business enterprises(including small-scalebusiness)¥ 0.9 trillion¥ 2.1trillion

ViciouscircleTwin deficits

Decrease of¥ 2.1 trillion
Overseas transferof plants

Decline inearnings

Equivalent to theloss of approx.
420,000 jobs
Worsening of
employment
situation

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

Decline of approx.
¥1 trillion

Decline ofcorporate tax
revenue

Worsening offiscal balance

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

e. Macro Economic Impact②： Increasing Import of Fossil Fueland Worsening of Trade Deficit
 Both export and import will increase because the world economy (Japanese andoverseas) is recovering gradually in FY2012. Japan’s trade deficit will remainunchanged from FY2011 due to the large amount of fuel imports and high fuelprices.
 In FY2013, recovery of overseas demand will increase Japanese exports. On theother hand, fossil fuel import value will remain high and the trade deficit will also
remain high at 6.3 trillion yen.
◆Export and Import◆Balance of trade
Billion yen

ActualCrude oil price：105$/bbl

2,000
1,000

Crude oil price：115$/bbl(Trillion yen）

Crude oil price：95$/bbl

ExportImportFossil Fuels

0

Balace of Trade

Forecast-1,000

Forecast

FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013

67.8
62.4
18.1
5.4

65.3
69.7
23.1
▲ 4.4

63.4
70.5
24.2
▲ 7.1

63.6
69.9
23.4
▲ 6.3

FY2013
Oil price-10＄-4.6 trillion yen-2,000

1Q2014

3Q2013

1Q2013

3Q2012

1Q2012

3Q2011

1Q2011

3Q2010

1Q2010-3,000Source : Historical data from Ministry of Finance, forecasts from IEEJ.
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

trade deficit(3 years in a row)

Oil price+10＄-7.8 trillion yen

193) Differences between Germany and Japan ①：
Significance of Networking with Other Countries

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

Power System
Interconnections in Europe★ EU countries are connected byinternational networks for energy
supply (power grids andpipelines). Note: The power supply
capacity of the entire network is 10
times larger than the capacity of theGerman grid alone.

NorwayNetherlands

Max. gen. cap. 3.6GW

Max. gen. cap.

UK

19.8GW

75.5GW

2.4GW

2GW

3.9GW

3GW

2.4GW

Max. gen. cap.

29.8GW

Sweden3.6GW

Belgium

0.6GW

Max. gen. cap.

2GW
15.8GW★ To optimize energy utilization
2.7GW
in the entire Northeast AsianFranceGermany
economic zone, Japan may
Max. gen. cap.
Max. gen. cap.
3.2GW
110.9GW
0.5GW
129.1GW
3.2GW
consider power line
3.5GW
interconnections with South
1.3GW
1.5GW
Spain
1.1GW Switzerland
2.2GW
Korea (and possibly also withMax. gen. cap.
Max. gen. cap. 1.2GW
17.9GW
2GW
China and Russia) as one of the 93.5GW 1GW
1.8GW
2.6 GW
options.
0.5GW

Energy security
Cost
Best mix...
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

Italy

4.2GW

0.3GW

Max. gen. cap.

32.6GW
0.6GW

AustriaMax. gen. cap.

Max. gen. cap.

93.1GW

18.9GW
0.2GW

Source: Material prepared by Secretary General Tanaka
of IEA for an IEEJ meeting

20

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

3) Differences between Germany and Japan②：
Germany is planning to import electricity from neighbouring countries

Electricity
generation
2008

Efficiency
gains until
2050

100%

very ambitious assumptions and cornerstones
underlying the energy scenarios
Electricity
demand2050

Imports toGermany
2050
Generation inGermany2050

92.3 TWhrenewables
out of637.3 TWhtotal generationin Germany

Decrease of generation in Germany by half

Tripling the generation from renewables

Bruttostromerzeugung gemäß Tabelle A I-7, Szenario II A, Energieszenarien EWI, GWS, Prognos

Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedNonrenewable
generation
2050

Renewable
generation = 80% ofGerman2050
generation 2050
285.2 TWhrenewables outof 352.6 TWh
total generation

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

3. Desirable Energy mix

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited22

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Options under Discussion①：3 options
Four options under discussion (Advisory Committee
for Natural Resources and Energy, as of June 7):
Nuclearpower

Renewabl Fossil-firede energy generation

Cogeneration

Energy conservation(power conservation)

CO2 emissions(change fromthe 1990 level)

Option (1)

0%

35%

50%

15%

-20% (-10%)−16%

Option (2)

15%

30%

40%

15%

-20% (-10%)−20%

Option (3)20-25%

25-30%

35%

15%-20% (-10%)−23%(Addition)

35%

25%

25%

15%

-20% (-10%)−28%

Option (4)Achieving the most desirable generation mix for society by the choice of power consumers in the market
after setting up a framework for sharing the social cost (of generation) by utilities (and power consumers)

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited23

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Options under discussion②： Economic Impact Analysis(Interim outputs from the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy as of June 7)
Electricity charge (nominal)
Impacton household budget (In FY2010: about 9,900 yen/month,or 118,800 yen per year)(substantial)
99% to 102%
-5.0 to -2.0%-6.0% to -5.6%[19,700 to 20,000 yen/month]
Option (1)[-31 to -12 trillion yen] [-19 to -18 trillion yen]
(236,400 to 240,000 yen/year)]71%-4.1 to -1.5%-4.6% to -4.4%[16,900 yen/month]
Option (2)[-25 to -9 trillion yen] [-15 to -14 trillion yen](202,800 yen/year)]
54% to 64%-3.6 to -1.2%-4.2% to -3.8%[15,200 to 16,200 yen/month]
Option (3)[-22 to -7 trillion yen] [-14 to -12 trillion yen]
(182,400 to 194,400 yen/year)]
38% to 39%(Additional-2.5 to -0.9%-3.4% to -2.9%[13,700 to 13,800 yen/month]scenario) [-15 to -6 trillion yen][-11 to -9 trillion yen]
(164,400 to 165,600 yen/year)]
Real
GDP

These are the results of estimations made at research institutions (the Research Institute of
Innovative Technology for the Earth and Associate Professor Nomura of Keio University) using
generation cost data provided by the Cost Investigation Committee.

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited24

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Options under discussion③ : The public view is divided
Results of the opinion poll
100%
90%
80%

10%
15%

11%

17%

19%

70%
60%

Others, no answer

20-25 % scenario
31%

54%

39%

38%

31%

50%
15 % scenario
40%
30%
20%

43%
31%

36%

38%

43%

Zero scenario

Results of the deliberative poll

10%
100%

0%
Aug 4-5
Asahi(newspaper)

Aug 11- 12

Aug 10-12

MainichiNHK(newspaper)(TV broadcasting)

Aug 11-12
Yomiuri(newspaper)Aug 24-26

90%

Nikkei80%(newspaper)

70%
60%
50%

23.3%

13.7%
13.3%

25.8%
13.0%

18.2%

9.9%

9.5%
15.4%
13.0%

No active
support for any
scenario
Support multiple
scenarios

15.4%
20-25 %
scenario

16.8%
14.3%

15 % scenario

20%
10%

13.7%

23.9%

40%
30%

13.7%

26.8%

32.6%

41.1%

46.7%
Zero scenario0%
Aug 7-22
Overall survey

Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedAug 7-22

Aug 4-5

Participants to After provided
the deliberative with informativepoll only
materials

Aug 4-5
After group
discussion

25

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Options under discussion ④：Business associations said “ zero
scenario is not the right option
Questionnaire by
Japan Federation of
Economic Organizations

Opinions of Japan Associationof Corporate Executives(1) “Zero scenario” is not the right

option to adopt(2) The rate of nuclear power should beflexibly examined after establishing the
new safety standards and taking
technical innovations into consideration.

Others: 62%

In this category,
38% answeredthat neither option
is appropriate.

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

20-25% scenario: 38%

・Responsible political decision andexplanation to the public are
essential for the problems related
In this category,
10% answered thatto the future of the nation.
they chose this only
if they must select ・At present, it is more appropriate toone.
decide only the outline of the future
Number of responding
policy while continuously verifying theorganizations: 29
details, rather than making a threefold
choice.
26

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Options under discussion⑤：Business associations
expressed serious concerns on their competitiveness
Questionnaires carried out by the Japan
Federation of Economic Organizations

Impacts on Japan’s international competitivenessSignificantly
declineDecline

No particular impact / Hard to know

Impacts on Japan’s employment situation
Significantly
declineIncrease

Decline

No particular impact / Hard to know

Zero scenario

Zero scenario(after taking additional measures)(after taking additional measures)

15% scenario

20-25% scenario
Answers responded by 20
organizations

15% scenario

20-25% scenario
Answers responded by 23
organizations

Source ：Results of the questionnaires regarding the options of theenergy/environmental policies, carried out by the Japan Federation of
Economic Organizations, on August 13, 2012
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited27

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) Status of “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategies” ①：
Major points of the strategies published in Mid Sept.

(Three pillars)
1) Earliest possible realization of a nuclear independent society＊Devote all types of political resources to realize zero nuclear power in the 2030’s＊NPSs of which safety is confirmed in the above process will be used as important
power source2) Implementation of green energy revolution＊Emergence of a newly growing economic sector
3) Stable energy supply＊Ensuring fossil fuel supplies, thermal use, research and development of next
generation energy technology
As a result,○GHG emissions in 2020 are expected to be cut by 5-9% (compared to 1990 level).
In 2030, emissions are expected to be cut by almost 20% (compared to 1990 level).
(Note) According to the current plan, the emissions in 2020 and 2030 are expected
to be cut by 25% and 30%, respectively.
However, this strategy itself was not approved by Cabinet meeting
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited28

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) Status of “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategies” ②:
Serious concerns expressed by industries etc.
(Concerns for the goal to achieve zero NPP in the 2030’s)1) Decline of economic power of Japan, hollowing-out, outflow ofnational wealth2) Weakening of the energy security system
3) Escape from international responsibility to combat global warming4) Absence of specific supporting evidence for the expansion ofrenewable energy5) Increasing difficulty in maintaining nuclear technology and humanresources; Difficulty in contributing to ensuring nuclear safety in Asia
6) Adverse effects are expected in the relationship between the US andJapan which have been interpolated by each other in the field of
nuclear technology. Japan’s cooperative relationship with the UK andFrance may also be affected
7) Making it difficult for the national government to fulfill the state
responsibility for the local communities hosting nuclear facilities
8) Others
・Decline of negotiating power for securing fossil fuel29
・Confusion in the world crude oil/natural gas market

Unauthorized
reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

4. Developments after the General
Election last December

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited30

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) The outcome of the general election on Dec.16,2012< The outcome of the Election in the Lower House>
LDP won in a overwhelming manner while the voting rate
was relatively low.

-LDP +Komei Party(LDP)

Before After
139
325
(118)

(294)

-DPJ +Peoples’ New Party 233-Japan Restoration Party 11-Others
96

58
54
43

-Total480

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

479

31

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2) The messages from the new administration< The policy of LDP>
a. Short tem* Existing nuclear reactors should be restarted as
the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which was establishedin mid- September in 2012, confirms their safety within
three years.
b. Long term
* The best energy mix should be determined within ten
years, by evaluating the performance of renewableenergy , which is being increasingly introduced after“ Feed in tariff system ” set in last July .

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited32

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

3) Preferable Energy Mix・・・My personal recommendation
My personal view on the theme (energy mix <power generation mix>: option ③
1) Comprehensive viewpoints●S+3E
Safety＋Energy Security＋Efficiency (energy efficiency and costs)＋Environment (environmental conservation andmeasures against global warming measures)●”There is no perfect energy” for a resource-poor country like Japan.
●In addition to “energy conservation”, four types of energy, that is, “nuclear energy,”“renewable energy,” “fossil energy” and “cogeneration” should be combined in a wellbalanced and diverse way to assure energy security.
－－－－Prferable Energy Mix●”Nuclear”：”Renewable”：”Thermal”：”Cogeneration” ＝ ２５：２５：３５：１５％2) International viewpoint●Germany can import electricity from the EU-wide network (which has the supply
capacity equivalent to 10 times as much as the electricity demand in Germany)●Nuclear power generation output is expected to sharply rise in the countries such as
China and India: 4 – 7 times as much as the present status within the next 2 decades(160-260 units).
Unauthorized reproduction prohibitedIEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

5. Possible energy cooperation in Asia

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited34

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

1) Energy conservation vs Climate Change○ Energy conservation can address the issue of CC＊ Domestic mitigation efforts could be based on intensity improvement efforts.
＊ Japan’s mid-term target aims at improving its carbon intensity, which is already thelowest among major countries.
Primary energy supply per GDP(2005)(Energy Intensity)

CO2 emissions per GDP (2005)(Carbon Intensity)[t/1000 US$（Standard exchange rate in 2000）]［kgCO2/US$（ Standard exchange rate in 2000 ）］

2.5

5.0

4.41

1.85

2.0
4.0

1.5

2.68

2.0

1.0

0.24

0.43 0.53

0.83

1.0

1.78

0.5

0.80
0.67 0.70

0.11

0.20 0.21 0.26

0.91

0.33 0.34

0.0

Ｊａ
ｐａ
ｎ
EU
27
Ｕ
Ｓ
Ca Ａ
na
d
Ｋ a
ｏｒ
ｅ
Au ａ
st
ra
lia
Ｉｎ
ｄｉ
ａ
Ｃｈ
ｉｎ
Ｒ ａ
ｕｓ
ｓｉ
ａ

0.0

Ｊａ
ｐａ
ｎ
EU
27
Ｕ
Ｓ
Au Ａ
st
ra
Ca lia
na
d
Ｋ a
ｏｒ
ｅａ
Ｉｎ
ｄｉ
ａ
Ｃｈ
ｉｎ
Ｒ ａ
ｕｓ
ｓｉ
ａ

3.0

Source: IEA (2007), “CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 1971-2005”
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited35

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

2)Asian Premium in LNG trade needs to be resolved
20(Unit: USD/million btu)
18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

New
York
City
Gate
Pipelinegas(atfromAsia(at the German
New
York
City
Gate
Pipeline gas fromAsia
theGermanborder)border) PricePricein Francein France
forforLNG
LNGfromfrom Algeria
Algeria
ニューヨーク・シティーゲート
ロシア産パイプライン（ドイツ国境）
アルジェリア産LNG（フランス）

Averagepriceprice ofof LNGJapan
Average
LNGforfor
Japan
日本向けLNG平均

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2

Henry Hub
ヘンリーハブ

2000

20 01

2002

200 3

2004

2005

20 06

200 7

20 08

20 09

2 010

201 1

Sources: Japan's customs clearance statistics and Energy Intelligence Data from the US Department of Energy
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

2 012

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

3) Nuclear Power Development in Asia v.s. Safety• The rapid expansion of nuclear power generation in Asia is based on its advantages ofenergy security and global warming prevention, and the vital need for nuclear power as an
economically efficient generation option, for economic growth.
• The total installed capacity of nuclear
Outlook for Installed Capacities in the World for Nuclear Power Generation
power generation in Asia is expected to
百万kW
Unit: million kW
900
The Middle East
increase by at least a factor of two to four
ActualForecast中東・アフリカ
実績← →見通し
and Africa
800
from the present level by 2035.
Central and 中南米
SouthAmerica

700
600 0.42 billion

4.2kW
億kW

500

Outlook for Installed Capacities in Asia for Nuclear Power Generation(Unit: million kW)

2020

2010

2035

Accelerated

Accelerated

Reference development Stagnation Reference development Stagnation
case
case
case
case
case
case

China

9

60

70

60

104

158

104

Taiwan

5

8

8

5

6

8

4

South Korea

18

24

32

24

34

48

34

ASEAN

0

0

0

0

9

26

3

India

4

18

26

18

35

72

35

All Asia

85

153

179

139

220

366

190

400

11%

14%

19%

20%
23%

North
北米
America

200

30%

100

22%

13%

18%

Europe(OECD)
欧州OECD

35%

Asia
アジア

26%
45%

38%

0

38%
Accelerated
進展
Development
ケース
case

1980

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

19%

0.18 billion
1.8kW
億kW

300

旧ソ連・
countries
12% Ex-USSR
Europe(Non-OECD)
欧州非OECD

2010

2020

2035

Stagnation
停滞
case
ケース

2035

Source: Asia and World Energy Outlook 2011

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

The importance of US/Japan Cooperation
US/Japan Cooperation is indispensable
for sustainable development in Asia, a growthcenter of the world by :- ensuring stable supply of energy (Energy Security)- addressing Climate Change (Environment)- keeping energy price affordable( Efficiency)- making nuclear energy safe while ensuring nonproliferation( Safety)- keeping economies in good shape (Macroeconomic impact)

Unauthorized reproduction prohibited38

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

7. Conclusion
1.

3E was key elements for energy policy in Japan before
the Fukushima accident

2.

After Fukushima, 3E + S + M has become important.

3.

Although a new and desirable energy mix had been discussed at
the Advisory Council to METI (Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry) Minister for more than one year , no conclusion wasmade yet.

4. The new coalition government led by LDP seemed tointend to take a cautious approach to determine a newenergy mix.
5. In the meantime, it is important for Japan to contribute to resolve
the following problems in Asia.
- to promote energy conservation- to resolve Asian premium in LNG trade- to make nuclear reactors safer
6. US /Japan Cooperation is indispensable for sustainable developmentin Asia
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited39

IEEJ:2013年1月掲載 禁無断転載

Thank you very much for your attention

40
お問い合わせ：report@tky.ieej.or.jp