CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

Keywan Riahi
LA of IPCC WGIII AR5: SPM, TS, and Chapter 7
IIASA, Austria
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report© dreamstime

Mitigation of Climate Change
Sectoral mitigation strategies and possible
co-benefits of mitigation

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving
away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.

What isrequired, whenand where?

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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

REQUIREMENTS (1)Transformation of the energy supplysector

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportReaching low stabilization levels requires the upscaling of lowcarbon energy supply
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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportReaching low stabilization levels requires the upscaling of lowcarbon energy supply
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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportReaching low stabilization levels requires the upscaling of lowcarbon energy supply
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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts inone sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in
one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in
one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportDecarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement forstabilizing atmospheric CO2eq concentrations below 580 ppm.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportDecarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement forstabilizing atmospheric CO2eq concentrations below 580 ppm.

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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

REQUIREMENTS (2)Supply-side mitigation needs to becomplemented by efficiency anddecarbonization of end-use sectors

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportReducing energy demand through efficiency enhancements andbehavioural changes are a key mitigation strategy.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportLow-carbon energy share in end-use sectors

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Example transport: many technologies can achieve substantialemission reductions.

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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Example transport: many technologies can achieve substantial
emission reductions.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportTransport Sector• Technical and behavioral mitigation measures for all transport modes, plus
new infrastructure and urban redevelopment investments, could reduce
final energy demand in 2050 by around 40 % below the baseline• Projected energy efficiency and vehicle performance improvements range
from 30–50 % in 2030 relative to 2010 depending on transport mode andvehicle type• Integrated urban planning, including more compact urban form andtogether with investments in new infrastructure (eg, high-speed rail) canlead to modal shifts that could reduce transport GHG emissions by 20–50 %in 2050 compared to baseline• Strategies to reduce the carbon intensities of transport fuels are constrainedby challenges associated with energy storage and the relatively low energy
density of low-carbon transport fuelsWorking Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportBuilding Sector•••••Recent advances in technologies, know-how and policies provide opportunities
to stabilize or reduce global buildings sector energy use below current levels
by 2050.
Particularly for new buildings, the adoption of very low energy building codes isimportant. Building codes and appliance standards have been among the mostenvironmentally and cost-effective instruments for emission reductions.
Retrofits form a key part of the mitigation strategy with the possibility toachieve reductions of heating / cooling energy use by 50–90 % in individualbuildings, sometimes even at negative costs.
Most mitigation options for buildings have considerable and diverse co-benefits
in addition to energy cost savings.
Strong barriers, such as split incentives (e. g., tenants and builders), fragmented
markets and inadequate access to information and financing, hinder themarket-based uptake of cost-effective opportunities.

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportDirect and Indirect Emissions from the building sector+370%+19%

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportIndustry Sector• Energy efficiency and behavioural changes can result in significant emissions reductionsin the short and medium term:• The energy intensity of the industry sector could be directly reduced byabout 25 % compared to the current level through the wide-scale upgrading,replacement and deployment of best available technologies• Additional energy intensity reductions of about 20 % may potentially berealized through innovation significant GHG emission reductions.
• In the long term, a shift to low-carbon electricity, new industrial processes, radicalproduct innovations (e. g., alternatives to cement), or CCS could contribute to significant
GHG emission reductions.
• Important options for mitigation in waste management are waste reduction, followed byre-use, recycling and energy recovery• Many industry options are cost effective, profitable and associated with multiple cobenefits• Barriers to implementing energy efficiency relate largely to initial investment costs andlack of information.
Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report

REQUIREMENTS (3)Achieving low stabilization levels requires
substantial investments, which can lead tosignificant co-benefits for other local or
national policy objectives

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportSubstantial reductions in emissions would require largechanges in investment patterns and appropriate policies.

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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation can result in large co-benefits for human healthand other societal goals.

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Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation can help to reduce energy security concerns

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportIntegration across climate and other objectives is key for costefectivly addressing environmental challenges

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThank you!

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report