Long‐term Plan
for Arctic Environmental Research
Japan Consortium for Arctic Environmental Research

Summary Edition
November 2014

Revised version on March 30, 2015

This booklet is the summary edition of “Long‐term Plan for Arctic Environmental Research” published by Japan
Consortium for Arctic Environmental Research (JCAR). For details, you should refer to the whole edition, which you
can find at the following web site:
http://www.jcar.org/english/

Long‐term Plan for Arctic Environmental Research
Summary Edition

Contents

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1(1) The purposes of the long‐term plan report ................................................................................................................. 1(2) The background and particulars of this report ............................................................................................................ 3(3) Contents of this report................................................................................................................................................. 3
2. Changes in the Arctic environment to date and in the near future .................................................................................. 3
3. History of Arctic environmental research ......................................................................................................................... 7
4. Abstracts of all themes...................................................................................................................................................... 9(1) Elucidation of abrupt environmental change in the Arctic associated with the on‐going global warming ................. 9
Theme 1: Arctic amplification of global warming ......................................................................................................... 9
Theme 2: Mechanisms and influence of sea ice decline ............................................................................................. 10
Theme 3: Biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem changes .......................................................................................... 11
Theme 4: Ice sheet, glaciers, permafrost, snowfall, snow cover and hydrological cycle ............................................ 12
Theme 5: Interactions between the Arctic and the entire earth ................................................................................ 13
Theme 6: Predicting future environmental conditions of the Arctic based on paleoenvironmental records ............ 14
Theme 7: Effects of the Arctic environment on human society .................................................................................. 16(2) Elucidation of environmental change concerning biodiversity .................................................................................. 17
Theme 8: Effects on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity ...................................................................................... 17
Theme 9: Influence on marine ecosystem and biodiversity ....................................................................................... 18(3) Broad and important subjects on the Arctic environment ........................................................................................ 19
Theme 10: Geospace environment ............................................................................................................................. 19
Theme 11: Interaction of surface environment change with solid earth.................................................................... 20
Theme 12: Basic understanding on formation and transition process of permafrost ................................................ 21(4) Development of methods enabling breakthroughs in environmental research........................................................ 22
Theme A: Sustainable seamless monitoring ............................................................................................................... 22
Theme B: Earth system‐modeling for inter‐disciplinary research ............................................................................... 23
Theme C: Data assimilation to connect monitoring and modeling ............................................................................. 24
5. Improvement of research foundation ............................................................................................................................. 25

Authors and reviewers ........................................................................................................................................................ 27

1. Introduction
environmental change. Terrestrial vegetation supports
wild animals, which are subsequently hunted for food byindigenous people in the Arctic area. Their traditional
culture provided many treasures to global citizens. The
situation is similar for the marine ecosystem wherechanges in marine biodiversity and biota are crucial to theecosystem services which support residents around theoceans. Both agriculture and fisheries are influenced by
the climate, however, there is one significant difference:i.e., agriculture can be managed to some extent by
maintaining water resources and choice of crop species,
whereas the fishery is dependent on the more complex
natural environment, with issues regarding food chainsand conflict among different species.
It should be noted how glaciers, ice sheets andpermafrost are changing, which are unique features in the
Arctic. The rapid degradation of the Greenland ice sheet
during this century is well known, because it is crucial to
future sea level rise. Shrinkage of mountain glaciers varies
from place to place, but the global decrease rate ismonitored only at certain degree. In contrast, thepermafrost is more challenging to monitor, as it also has
an environmental impact when its thawing affects
vegetation and river flows, as well as the release ofgreenhouse gases from decomposing carbon‐containing
compounds. The recent increase in Siberian riverdischarges is attributable to an increase in precipitation,and possibly thaws permafrost along the rivers.
In light of the factors mentioned above,
paleoenvironmental research uses analysis of past climatechanges recorded in strata and ice sheets to verify
simulation models for future predictions. An interesting,broader view includes the timing of the development of
the semi‐closed Arctic Basin, and its consequences on
climate in the Arctic Ocean and coastal areas. The impactof the upper atmosphere on the stratosphere andtroposphere, in accordance with variable solar activities,
is another example. Not limiting to natural sciences, wider
attention should be directed toward the humanities andsocial sciences: e.g., how to develop collaborative
relationship between the indigenous residents and recent
immigrants. We would expect readers to understandthese concerns when reading through this report, andgenerate ideas for resolving them.

(1) The purposes of the long‐term plan report
In this plan, Arctic environment specialists aim topresent research direction for the resolution ofenvironmental issues to citizens concerned withenvironmental problems and researchers in various fields.
The primary concern on the environment is global
warming. In particular, it is said that the Arctic is
experiencing warming more than twice as quickly as theglobal mean warming, and dramatic changes in snow andice covers which have been observed are drawing ourattention. It is accepted that despite global warming,some areas sometimes undergo cooling. This is due toatmospheric circulation variability where air temperature
may go up and down from year to year with certain spatial
patterns, while global warming has a time scale in therange of several decades to centuries. Therefore, after
experiencing unusually cold winters, it is understandable
that some doubt the existence of global warming andquestion which direction Japan will take.
Let us move onto the map (Fig.1). By studying the Arctic,
it has become apparent that during summer, open water
areas exist which were covered by sea ice in a whole year
until some years ago. The region off the Siberian coast
already experiences only seasonal ice cover. The future
projections indicate that seasonal ice cover will expand
across the entire Arctic Ocean around the middle of thiscentury, although some models suggest this will be rather
sooner at ten years from now. Whilst simulation models
are necessary for future projections, some may question
their reliability. An even more difficult question is whenthe Arctic Sea Route will become substantially available.
The distribution of vegetation, which is mainly
controlled by climate, will increase under gradualwarming in the middle and high latitude areas. As soil
moisture is crucial, vegetation is dependent on
precipitation and the length of snow cover. There areconcerns that forest ecosystems are not easilytransferable and hence may not be able to follow climatechange. When anthropogenic influences such as
deforestation and development are included, changes inthe biodiversity and biota become difficult to estimate.
Human beings keep an issue to preserve biodiversity,
which provides the foundation of terrestrial ecosystemservices 1 and determines the level of response to1

Ecosystem services: Benefits that human being receives from ecosystems: i.e., main ones are food, mental and cultural benefits, and also
mitigation of climate and water environment, extending further to oxygen supply and carbon dioxide absorption.
1

15°W

30°W

45°W

60°W

75°W

90°W

0

Atlantic Ocean

105°W
Nuuk

Isua

ICELAND

CircleFaroe
Islands

15°E

Oslo

Greenland
Sea

Scandinavian
Peninsula Norwegian
Sea

FINLAND

Tromsø

Sankt-Peterburg

Churchill

BaffinBaffin Island
Bay

SummitNORWAYSWEDEN
30°E

Hudson Bay

70°N

80°N

Murmansk

Alert

Ny-Ålesund

Svalbard

EurekaBritishColumbia
Beaufort
Sea

Kara Sea Severnaya
ZemlyaBarrow

Baranova

60°E

TaymyrWest Siberian Plain(Zapadno-Sibirskaya
Ravnina)

Novosibirskiye
Laptev Ostrova
Sea
East Siberian
Sea

Siberia

Yukon
Territory

135°W

Fairbanks

AlaskaShishmaref

150°W

Tiksi

Bering Sea

Central Siberian Plateau(Srednesibirskoye
Ploskogor’ye)

75°E

ChukchiSea

Brooks Range

Novaya Zemlya

RUSSIA

Cambridge Bay

Arctic Ocean

Barents Sea

45°E

Resolute

Alpha Ridge

Moskva(Moscow)

120°W

Ellesmere
IslandFram Strait

Longyearbyen

CANADA

Greenland(Kalaallit Nunaat)

Pacific Ocean

Sakha (Caxa)

165°W

Yakutsk
Ust'-Maya

Kamchatka
BaykalSea of Okhotsk

90°E

MONGOLIA

Sakhalin

180

JAPAN
105°E

120°E

135°E

150°E

165°E

Figure 1: A map of Arctic region displaying the main geographical names whichappear in the long term plan (full version). The original map can be downloaded
from the JCAR website.

2

(2) The background and particulars of this report
The long‐term plan was proposed in the Basic Policy
Terms of the on‐going GRENE Arctic Climate Change
Research Program2 and moreover in the prospectus andagreement of JCAR 3 . Up to now, no long‐term plan has
focused on Arctic environmental research in our country,
hence, it is important to present analyses of the current
status and future direction to be taken. It is no
exaggeration to say that the fact that this long‐term plan
has been developed by JCAR has confirmed its existence.
This plan reflects the hopes of the next generation ofresearchers, encouraging forward progress toward
common goals by working together.
It is sensible to select enhanced warming andbiodiversity as the two foci of Arctic environmental
research, since international programs are already inplace to establish the current status, make future
projections, and provide proposals for management. The
advantage of JCAR is that it consists of various disciplines,
which will enlighten each other. Therefore, the plan isorganized around the core subjects, which should betackled in collaboration. Although environmental research
has previously been carried out in the Arctic, global
warming and biodiversity have not been directly focusedon. Therefore, this research may not only enhance theactivities of JCAR as a community, but also provide
important, new information on global warming andbiodiversity. Furthermore, this report includes guidelines
to develop research infrastructure, construction of aplatform for the research and capacity building.

necessary research paths and systems for the next 10 to
20 years. The report is structured so that readers who are
not familiar with science and researchers who are not
involved in Arctic research, initially read the introduction
about social concerns and then progress further into more
specialized information with the deeper insights.
The four objectives are as follows. The first one, whichis the background for formation of JCAR, is research on“Understanding of the abrupt‐complex phenomenon andelucidation of the mechanisms and impacts associatedwith global warming enhanced in the Arctic, along withimprovement of their future prediction”. In this objective,
seven themes have been selected such as amplification ofwarming in the Arctic. The second one, research toelucidate “Biodiversity in land and ocean, and also theeffects of anthropogenic environmental change on
ecosystem, not limited to global warming” is divided into
terrestrial and marine themes. The third one covers“Broad and important research on the Arctic environment
and its fundamental information” and includes threethemes such as the geospace environment surrounding
the earth. The fourth objective covers three categories ofmethods related to the previous themes, “Monitoring,modeling and integration of the two, enabling
breakthroughs in environmental research”.
Many of the environmental changes considered forthese objectives contain complicated interactions among
the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land surface,geochemical cycle, and ecosystem. Hence, this approachactivates inter‐disciplinary research. In turn, thisencourages a deeper understanding of each discipline andleads to exploration of unexplained phenomena. The forthobjective encourages breakthrough research from thedevelopment of innovative methods of observation andmodeling, not confined within the improvement oftechniques.

(3) Contents of this report
Several themes have been chosen for each of the four
objectives set here, starting with the changes andvariations in the states to date, alongside a review of theresearch progress. We describe each theme, identifying
gaps in the current understanding, and then suggest

2. Changes in the Arctic environment to date and in the near future
Let us consider the scientific questions for the academic
experts as to how the Arctic environment has changed
over time and will continue to change during this century.
We also introduce progress in research, including thecurrent direction, which has already been addressed. First,

multi‐disciplinary issues are described in association withthe objectives of this long‐term plan. Most of these issues
are receiving attention from the ongoing GRENE program.
The various factors that cause warming over the global
enhanced in the Arctic and are in turn affected by the2

GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project: project funded for 5 years starting in FY2011 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology‐Japan (MEXT) within the framework of the GRENE (Green Network of Excellence) Program.
3 JCAR: Japan Consortium for Arctic Environmental Research, a nationwide network‐based organization for promoting arctic environmental
research.
3

Figure 2: Crucial changes in the atmosphere, land, cryosphere and ocean, in response to current climate change,along with the effects (one way) and feedback (two ways). Note that while only major changes and interactions
are displayed, other variations may exist. The solid arrows denote confirmed interactions, and the dotted ones
denote more hypothetical ones. Also, the interactions between clouds and global warming can work both ways:e.g., the presented feedback is important in seasons other than summer, although clouds shield solar radiation
and reduce sea ice melting in summer. In addition, forest fires occur without global warming, but are becoming
more frequent.

phenomenon, are shown in Fig.2, where the warming is
the pivotal point. For example, sea ice reduction andshortened and reduced snow cover occur as a result of
global warming, and then contribute to a reduction inalbedo (reflectance of solar radiation), making feedback
to the Arctic amplification of the warming. Water vapor
increases as a result of the air temperature rise, and hence,
clouds and aerosols (air containing fine particles) increase.
The effects of clouds are dependent on the season, while
they increase the downward longwave radiation except
for summer, contributing to warming at the earth surface.
A future research topic will be to project quantitatively
how much more rapidly the Arctic will warm up incomparison to the global average.
Greenhouse gases absorb longwave radiation from theearth’s surface, causing the troposphere to warm up. In
contrast, the stratosphere and upper atmosphere havebeen reported their cooling down. When temperaturechanges differ between the low‐ and high‐latitudes, andbetween the lower troposphere and the upper
atmosphere, various suggestions have been maderegarding the feedback to the low‐latitude atmosphere:e.g., how the jet stream around the Arctic changes, andwhether meanders tend to grow more or not in the jetstream.
Global warming pushes the northern limit of forests
northward, while permafrost tends to retreat, resulting in
reduction of soil moisture and subsequent forest
degradation in some areas. Once the warming affects
atmospheric circulation through snow cover and the4academic questions. Around the atmosphere, increases inboth longwave radiation from the sea surface and sensible
and latent heat 5 fluxes due to sea ice reduction, willproduce a significant change in the Arctic region. We needto improve the reliability of future prediction for thetransition from stratus to stratocumulus by eliminating
under‐ and over‐estimation of cloud formation in anumerical model. Although increasing greenhouse gases
modify the radiation balance, aerosols form cloud nuclei
and enhance the cloud formation significantly in the Arctic,
therefore we need to identify more appropriate processes.
Atmospheric circulation patterns are modified by sea ice
reduction and snow cover changes with spatial variability:e.g., the East Asian winter monsoon is modulated, giving
anomalous weather around Japan. One of the necessary,
but recently developing research topics, coverinteractions of the Arctic area with interannual variability
in the atmospheric circulation in the equatorial to mid‐latitude areas.
As global warming occurs near the earth surface, theupper atmosphere becomes cooler. Monitoring thecooling provides us with an estimate of the global
warming progress. The ozone layer, in the Arctic inaddition to Antarctic, has been monitored, whichhighlights the need for continuous observations withregard to global warming. Since it has been suggested that
solar activities affect the lower atmosphere, we shouldattempt to quantify the effects. Space plasma radiates
along the magnetic field lines toward the polar region,
producing various phenomena in the upper atmospheresuch as aurora. Monitoring them from the ground helps
us to examine the space plasma environment crucial to
the safe and secure operation of satellites.
Let us consider the terrestrial cryosphere. As for ice
sheets and glaciers, which melt and contribute to a rising
sea level, we will investigate the dynamics and theenergy/mass balance at the surface. Using observational
data and modeling, we will be able to track the massbalance. Although the period of snow cover has beenshortened over the high‐latitude regions, snow depth andprecipitation vary greatly in time and space. Therefore,hydrologic cycle, feedback to the land surface should beconsidered, and hence, permafrost degradation andnorthward expansion of forests will vary by region. As aresult of these changes, thawing permafrost may releasegreenhouse gases, while the growing forests will absorb
carbon dioxide. Since soil moisture depends on
precipitation, it is challenging to predict how vegetation
will change. Improved prediction of ice sheet melting
promote the correspondence of social infrastructure by
estimating sea level rise, such as storm surges and lowland
flooding.
The warming also affects the oceans. Cooling becomes
weaker over the Greenland Sea, meaning that deep water
formation under convection is reduced. Therefore, thedriving force of the global conveyor belt4 is weakened, or
the deep water is reduced within the belt, resulting in a
reduction of nutrient upwelling. In the Arctic Ocean andthe surrounding seas, deep convection becomes weaker,
impacting marine ecosystems. However, detailed
investigations are necessary to judge the effects ofchanging conditions on both migratory species and the
opposite ones. Acidification occurring primarily in the
Arctic Ocean will have a large impact on the ecosystem.
The partial pressure of carbon dioxide is determined byocean temperature, inorganic carbon compoundconcentration and alkalinity, and increases under the
global warming, although some unclear elements prevent
prediction of the absorption of carbon dioxide in theocean.
In order to retrieve useful information from theenvironmental variability of the past to enable predictions
for the future, research activities have been focused on ice
cores and marine bottom sediments, as well as
exchanging knowledge with various other fields. A
majority of this long‐term plan is based on natural science,
however, we also describe the social impacts ofenvironmental change, and propose methods to respondto changing conditions with cooperation of the residents
who rely on the Arctic area for their livelihood.
Next, we consider the on‐going changes for individual
elements of the Arctic environment and explore some
4

Global conveyor belt: mainly driven by the North Atlantic Deep Water, but also involves other important driving mechanisms. In the
Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian oceans, heating and cooling work on the sea surface; salinity is reduced by precipitation and river inflow,
and increased by evaporation. As a result, ocean circulation is induced along the meridional (north‐south) plane, and hence, the North
Atlantic Deep Water near the ocean floor in the North Atlantic flows southward in the Atlantic, eastward in the Southern Ocean, andnorthward in the Pacific, and then, rises to the surface layer in the North Pacific. It then goes through the Indian Ocean and returns to the
Atlantic. This circulation pattern is called the Global Conveyor Belt.
5 Sensible heat and latent heat: the cold and dry atmosphere takes heat from the ocean. Sensible heat flux is caused by a difference intemperature between the atmosphere and the ocean. Latent heat flux is induced by evaporation, and then, water vapor returns to theliquid phase and releases heat to the atmosphere.
5the appropriate method is to combine continuous
observations at stationary points and coverage withsatellite data, where the northward shift anddeterioration of forest zone are also monitored. It is
examined quantitatively how much ice albedo is reducedby microbial effects, along with the effects of vegetation
variability. We can easily imagine warming around theactive layer in the upper part of permafrost, while thealbedo and heat conduction are dependent on snow
depth in early winter and will influence the loss near thesouthern edge. The net precipitation, which isprecipitation minus evaporation, is thought to increase intime and contribute to river discharge into the Arctic
Ocean. We should consider a complete picture of thehydrological cycle, by combining water vapor transport
from the sea surface and mid‐latitudes.
The terrestrial geochemical cycle remains as an
uncertain component in identifying the global carbon
fluxes. In the Arctic area, huge amount of organic matterin permafrost emits carbon dioxide and methane underglobal warming and large‐scale forest fires. In addition tocarbon, nutrients and trace metals also flow out to theocean through rivers and due to coastal erosion,
subsequently influencing the primary productivity ofmarine ecosystems. Contributions to monitoring of theenvironment are expected in Siberia, Alaska, Canada andNordic countries.
Terrestrial vegetation supports wild animals, provides
ecosystem services for human beings, and also has thecapacity of feedback to climate change. It is well known
that increased productivity of vegetation fixes morecarbon dioxide, although the level of fixation is dependent
on the abundance of nutrients. The other functions
include reduction of albedo with the northward expansionof the forest zone, contribution to hydrologic cycle by soil
moisture absorption and evapo‐transpiration, and also
arrangement of iron compounds for the marine
ecosystem. Since reduced biodiversity yields vulnerability
in environmental change, we should focus on exploring
the biodiversity in the high latitude areas relatively behind
mid‐ and low‐latitudes.
Sea ice cover in the Arctic has noticeably reduced due
to air temperature rise and ocean warming. Perennial sea
ice has reduced all over the Arctic, shifting to a seasonalfeature, which has happened most notably over the
Siberian continental shelves. An increased flow of thewarming Pacific Water into the Arctic Ocean is driving sea
ice reduction. Based on historical records, our specialists

should monitor oceanographic variability in the Pacificsector so that they may explore various components ofsea ice and the processes. The inflow from the Atlantic
region into the intermediate layer of the Arctic Ocean
receives less brine rejection due to less ice formation in
the Barents Sea, and hence, mixes with the Arctic surface
water more easily. Thus, there is a need to investigate theprocesses associated with the seawater influx through the
Barents Sea. Once we attempt a trial experiment topredict sea ice cover and movement with the navigabilityof the Arctic Sea Route in the near future, we will focus ona system to use satellite data and to develop numericalmodels.
Ocean geochemical cycles and the marine ecosystem
will change, interacting closely with each other. Expansionof the seasonal ice‐covered area tends to enhance theproductivity, although it does not necessarily increase, forexample, when circulation of nutrients is weakened under
the freshened surface layer. The species that have lived in
the adjacent seas continue to invade the Arctic Ocean,with the distinct possibility that the biota will be largely
transformed. For the Arctic Ocean, which is under strong
influences of river water spreading on the wide
continental shelves, the research focuses on material
exchange between the shelves and the basin, and theresultant responses of the ecosystem. As such, it isnecessary to trace the effects of land‐origin materials. In
order to monitor the progress of ocean acidification, we
should keep track the areas with under‐saturated withcalcium carbonate in the bottom layer of the shelf region
and the surface layer of the basin. Our knowledge of thefood‐web and material fluxes from zooplankton to fish
and birds is limited to early summer only, and hence, wehave to build a platform to collect information during theother seasons.
Let us consider the phenomena over time scales longer
than several hundred years. Paleoenvironmental data
provide information on the interactions between
temperature variability and geochemical cycles. Since thepaleoclimate information is applicable to current
environmental changes, the key issue is to develop andoperate a research system under collaboration withvarious academic disciplines. Within the solid earth field,
we focus on the effects of marine hydrothermal activities
and seafloor geodetic on climate change through ocean
circulation. As for the issues on the Greenland ice sheet,
we propose to research the retreat of the grounding line
under the ice sheet due to the sea level rise, and the6response of the ice sheet to its own rapid melting, with aview of potential future problems.
As for the final issue, the social impacts of Arctic
environmental change are described. In this plan, we list
operation of the Arctic Sea Route, information transfer on
earthquake and tsunami, impacts of terrestrial ecosystemchanges, increasing forest fires, and changes in andmaintenance of marine products. These aspects should
not be considered just as information transfer to the Arctic
residents, but be pursued in cooperation with them, as anunderstanding between the residents and the researchcommunity, and also on the basis of respect for otherentire human beings.

3. History of Arctic environmental researchInternational efforts focusing scientific studies on the
Arctic were a response to the first International Polar Year
(IPY; 1882 ‐ 1883) in the late 19th century. Twelve
countries participated in the IPY and 14 observatories
were opened in the Arctic. In IPY, the main observations
were meteorology, geomagnetism, and the aurora. Japan
voluntarily participated in the IPY, with the advice of
foreign experts, while the Ministry of Agriculture andCommerce, Geological Survey and the Navy Hydrographic
Bureau started the geomagnetic observation. Complete
oceanographic observations in the Arctic began with theFram Expedition led by Nansen ten years later (1893‐1896). It was still a time of global exploration, when eachcountry was in competition to explore the Arctic Sea
Route, discover unexplored land, and reach the North Pole.
Based on the success of the IPY, the second
International Polar Year (IPY2; 1932 ‐ 1933) was
conducted 50 years later; 44 countries attended, including
Japan for the first time. Japan did not have territorial
waters in the Arctic, therefore they started geomagnetic
observations at Sakhalin close to the Arctic, and themeteorological observations at the summit of Mt. Fuji,
which has a climate that is similar to the Arctic. The major
challenges of IPY2 were to observe the ionosphere in
relation to "radio waves forecast" for long‐distanceshortwave communication. Japan also participated in thisinternational project by establishing the observatory.
After World War II, the Arctic became the stage of theCold War for the United States and the Soviet Union. The
Arctic Ocean was surveyed by nuclear submarines, sea ice
and ice islands were used as drifting stations, andresource exploration and cold region research engineeringof the Greenland ice sheet and permafrost (which hasstrong implications for the military including the resource
exploration) were performed.
Japanese scientists began to conduct research activities
in the Arctic, from the late 1950s. The study of ice cores in
the Greenland ice sheet by Ukichiro Nakaya (Hokkaido

University), and meteorological and glaciological researchon the ice islands called ALIS2 and T3 of the Arctic Ocean
by researchers were all carried out as participations of theUnited States project. From the late 1960s, tracking
observations of ice nuclei from over Japan to Alaska by
Nagoya University, permafrost research in Siberia andAlaska and glacier survey in Alaska by Hokkaido University
were performed by Japanese research groups. This wasduring the Cold War era and research observations in the
Arctic were restricted. In particular, the door to the Arctic
was closed and access to data was limited in the Soviet
Union.
A major turning point in the Arctic research was in 1987
when General Secretary Gorbachev of the Soviet Union
gave his speech at Murmansk. He called for a release of
the Northern Sea Route and the promotion of scientificresearch in the Arctic. A momentum of international
cooperation in the Arctic research grew in response to this,and in August 1990, Arctic countries met in Resolute,
Canada, and installed the International Arctic Science
Committee (IASC). The first meeting of the IASC Council
was held in Oslo in January 1991, where membershipexamination of non‐Arctic countries was carried out, andthe six applicant countries, including Japan, were
accepted.
This was also a turning point for Arctic research by
Japan. In 1990, the Arctic Environment Research Center
was established by the National Institute of Polar
Research (NIPR). In 1991, along with the cooperation of
the Norwegian Polar Institute, a research station was also
set‐up in Ny‐Ålesund, Spitsbergen, Svalbard, whichstarted observing atmosphere, snow and ice, ocean,terrestrial ecology and upper atmosphere physics. In
addition, in 1990, the Japan Marine Science andTechnology Center (JAMSTEC; currently, Marine‐Earth
Science and Technology Organization) in collaboration
with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, used theoceanographic vessel of the University of Alaska and7was essential to promote research, and consequently
began Arctic research activities by constituting acommittee by volunteers from 2006. To show our support,
from 2008, the International Symposium on Arctic
Research, which occurs every two years, and the Arctic
session from 2008 at the Japan Geoscience Union General
Assembly.
International research gained momentum around 2000
following sea ice decline in the Arctic Ocean. Between
2007 and 2008, on the 50th anniversary of theInternational Geophysical Year (IGY), with ICSU 8 andWMO 9 as the core, IPY2007‐2008 for the Arctic andAntarctic was carried out with promotion of research
activities on observation and data archiving. In order tostrongly encourage research, expansion of theorganization was discussed in the IASC, and the number ofworking groups increased since 2011. This gave Japanese
researchers the opportunity to become more involved in
IASC activities.
In 2011, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology took up the "Arctic Climate
Change" as a part of Green Network of Excellence (GRENE)
program. Focusing on the "Rapid Change of the Arctic
Climate System and its Global Influences", a five‐year plan
known as the GRENE Arctic Climate Change Projectcommenced. The GRENE Arctic project has the NIPR as arepresentative body and participating institution of
JAMSTEC. It is a large‐scale project with nearly 300
participating scientists participating from 36 universities
and research institutes across the country.
JCAR was established in May 2011, as a part of the
GRENE Arctic project. In addition to long‐term planning on
Arctic environmental research, JCAR has discussed theinfrastructure of research and observation, promoted
international cooperation and coordination, anddevelopment of human resources.

automatic sea ice observing station to perform marine
observations of the Arctic Ocean.
NIPR conducted observations of greenhouse gases atNy‐Ålesund station, biological observations in the polynya(non‐freezing open waters), ice core drilling on theGreenland ice sheet, the joint observation of theatmosphere by aircraft with the Alfred Wegener Institutefor Polar and Marine Research of Germany, further aircraft
observation of greenhouse gases, aerosols and clouds up
to Svalbard across the Arctic Ocean from Japan, andcarbon cycle study of tundra vegetation at Ellesmere
Island in Canada and Svalbard. In contrast, JAMSTEC
commended Arctic Ocean observations using theoceanographic research ship "Mirai" from 1998, with 10
voyages between 1998 and 2013 contributing to theinternational Arctic Ocean observation. From 1997,
Nagoya University began water and energy cycle researchin Siberia over snow cover on frozen ground, by installingthe observation points such as Yakutsk and Tiksi, which
also corresponded to WCRP 6 / GEWEX 7 research
programs. Since 2001, the research project had been
conducted by JAMSTEC, Hokkaido University, Nagoya
University, and Research Institute for Humanity andNature, and the research area has expanded around the
Lena River basin.
In addition, from 1991, the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES), has continued sustainable
observation of greenhouse gases in Siberia using theobservation towers and aircrafts. Hokkaido University alsobegan studying permafrost in Siberia and Alaska in the
1980s; Kitami Institute of Technology and Hokkaido
University carried out glacier observation of Siberia in the
2000s, and the Forestry and Forest Products ResearchInstitute has been completing a forest survey of Taiga
band. Tohoku University and NIES have also continued
observation of greenhouse gases by commercial airliner
over Siberia. Furthermore, since 1999, JAXA (Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency) and JAMSTEC began joint
research on the Arctic Research with the University of
Alaska.
Observational research of the Arctic region by Japan
had been carried out by group‐based research, byinstitutions and projects, depending on the decentralized
form; however, we recognize that domestic cooperation
6

WCRP: World Climate Research Program
GEWEX: Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment; in 2013 and later, Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project
8 ICSU: The International Council of Science
9 WMO: The World Meteorological Organization
78

4. Abstracts of all themes(1) Elucidation of abrupt environmental change in the Arctic associated with the on‐going global warming
Global warming is the primary environmental change in this century, significantly impacting human society andecosystems, causing great social concern. This is why we describe the themes in relation to global warming. The key
processes are discussed, with the aim of clarifying feedback among the various elements of the Arctic environment.
Feedback from ecosystem changes to global warming is also focused on.

Theme 1: Arctic amplification of global warming
In the Arctic, several elements in the atmosphere,
ocean, cryosphere, land surface and ecosystems areinterwoven in a complex with various feedback effects,
resulting in a more rapid temperature rise than in otherregions. This particular phenomenon is known as "Arctic
warming amplification". However, our understanding of
the quantitative contribution from the individual
elements and physical processes is still insufficient.
Therefore, using the following five questions, we
proposed a long‐term research strategy for the current
and future situation.
Q1: How does horizontal and vertical heat transport
from lower to upper atmospheric layers affect Arctic
warming amplification?
Q2: Is the role of terrestrial snow cover, permafrost,
vegetation and ice sheet important?
Q3: To what extent does the role of sea ice albedo andheat accumulation in the ocean vary seasonally?
Q4: Is it possible to quantify the role of clouds andaerosols?
Q5: Why is Arctic warming amplification occurring, andhow uncertain are the predictions? How are radiative
forcing and feedback processes changing in the Arctic?
In the context of atmospheric circulation, Q1 wasdiscussed by dividing the role of the effects of heattransport from the mid‐latitudes and the role of the upper
atmosphere, how the horizontal and vertical heattransport in the lower layer to the upper layer of theatmosphere would affect the Arctic temperatureamplification. Q2 is related to terrestrial snow cover,permafrost, vegetation and the ice sheet. We considered
the effects of snow cover, permafrost, and ice sheetchanges with water circulation changes, and the effects ofsoil and vegetation alterations on the atmosphere. Q3

Figure 3: Potential feedback effects in the Arctic between each component. [Theme 1]

9considered the role of sea ice albedo and heataccumulation in the ocean with seasonal fluctuations on
the Arctic amplification. Q4 discussed the quantitativerole of clouds and aerosols, considered to be extremely
uncertain in Arctic warming amplification. Finally, as an
overall summary, we questioned why Arctic warming
amplification is occurring, how uncertain the predictions
are, and what are the changes to the feedback processes
and radiative forcing in the Arctic. We discussed thequantitative evaluation of the current state of researchand the challenges. Through each question, we studied
from the standpoint of process observation, long‐termmonitoring, process models and climate modeling.
Efforts for more than 10 years have focused on energy

transport in the Arctic region, and continue to examine
the interaction between elements from upper
atmosphere to clouds, aerosols, snow cover, sea ice andocean middle layer. In order to develop and use Earth
System Models, not only is the cooperation of modelers invarious fields required, but the planned acquisition ofdata for model validation is also needed. As a contribution
from our country, we must work with the agency tocontinue sensor development and launch satellites inorder to develop satellite observations from the sea ice tothe upper atmosphere. In situ observations of the ocean
are key to our contribution and should be repeatedsystematically.

Theme 2: Mechanisms and influence of sea ice decline
Recent rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic Ocean has
the future climate and efficiency of momentum transfer
increased social concerns on the possibility of the entire
among air, sea ice and underlying ocean. It is problematic
to attribute the sea ice decline mechanisms only to either
disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer. This change ismotion/melting of sea ice or atmosphere/ocean warming.
closely related to the development of a new commercial
We should quantitatively examine various interactions
sea route and cold winters in Japan. It has therefore
such as the impact of ocean currents and weather
become an important issue, not only for researchscientists, but also for social and economic communities.
conditions on heat balance at the ocean surface.
Theme 2 contains four questions
listed below. First, mechanicalfactors on sea ice motion (Q1)and thermal factors on sea ice
growth/melting(Q2)
aredescribed to explore mechanismsof sea ice reduction. Then,influences of sea ice retreat on
atmospheric (Q3) and ocean (Q4)systems are discussed.
Q1: Do changes in wind patternand sea ice fluidity promote sea
ice reduction?
Q2: How does sea ice thermal
reduction proceed?
Q3: How does sea ice reduction
influence cloud and cyclones?
Q4: How does sea ice reduction
influence the ocean fields?
Since the variation in Arctic sea
ice is closely related to changes in
Figure 4: Schematic image of sea ice variations. Sea ice forms from sea
wind pattern and sea ice fluidity,
water cooled to its freezing point and melts due to solar and ocean heat.
we should persistently examine
Due to the wind, the most part of sea ice is exported toward the North
Atlantic. [Theme 2]
theatmosphericpressure
patterns most likely to exist under10and water mass transport across the multiple basins. The
findings obtained by such efforts will result in theunderstanding of not only physical oceanographic
properties but also polar marine ecosystems.
Over the next decades, we aim to clarify and quantify
the processes on ocean heat transport covering oceaninterior from bottom of sea ice to intermediate waterlayers and on air‐sea ice‐ocean interactions related tocloud and cyclones. With regard to the characteristics of
sea ice itself, the detailed processes of melt pond
formation and collision among sea ice floes should beanalyzed. For these analyses, operations of an icebreaker
and all weather‐type satellite microwave sensors are
essential. We should also develop next‐generation sea ice‐
ocean models explicitly resolving individual ice floe anddense water plumes so that reliable information can beprovided for vessels sailing through the Arctic Sea Route.

International cooperation is essential for academic
research on the Arctic Ocean environment, especiallyusing field observations, which is too challenging to beadequately conducted by only one country. The Japanese
research group has obtained many achievements fromship‐based field campaigns in the Pacific side of Arctic
Ocean. To continue our international contribution in the
Pacific Arctic region, comprehensive year‐long (including
freezing period) measurements are big challenges to fill inblank data. Over recent years, several non‐Westerncountries have already built their own icebreakers. Now
we need further efforts to maintain and strengthen thescientific contribution of Japan. Satellite remote sensing
represented by the microwave radiometer can play aleading role in Arctic environmental research by Japan in
the distance from the Arctic. The improvement of
numerical models is expected to provide morequantitative information on air‐sea ice‐ocean interactions

Theme 3: Biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem changes
which is the other side of the same coin with the
Biogeochemical cycle across the atmosphere, land, andperspective of environmental changes.
ocean is closely related to greenhouse gas dynamics such
Q1: How are concentrations of greenhouse gases andas CO2 and methane, aerosols that affect cloud formationand solar radiation, and nutrients that sustain marine
aerosols in the atmosphere changing?
ecosystems. In the Arctic regions, sea ice, ice sheets, snow
Q2: How are biogeochemical cycles that related tocover, and permafrost play a major role interrestrial ecosystems changing?
biogeochemistry and complicate the processes further.
Q3: What is needed for quantitative elucidation of thegeochemical material transport from land to sea?
Here, we highlight the following four questions that
Q4: How are biogeochemical cycles that related todescribe important aspects of changing biogeochemistry,
marine ecosystems changing?
As for the atmosphere, sinceobservational data are currently very poor in
Siberia, deployment of new observationsites to implement year‐round observationsof atmospheric trace gases is important inSiberia.
The use of satellite data andaerosol observation over the ocean using
marine vessels on a regular basis are also
necessary. For terrestrial ecosystems, theimplementation of long‐term study sitesthat allow centennial‐scale continuous dataacquisition of vegetation change such as
species composition and structure change isimportant. Also, satellite observations thatrecord signals of vegetation change,
Figure 5: Schematic diagram of biogeochemical cycle in the Arctic.
development of vegetation dynamics[Theme 3]models that perform reliable predictions onlong‐term ecosystem changes, and11understanding the geographical distribution and its
accumulation and decomposition mechanisms of soilorganic carbon (SOC) are crucial for the scientific progress.
For the geochemical transport from land to ocean, we
need to develop an extensive observation network aroundrivers and coastal areas in the Arctic to monitor fluxes ofpollutants, carbon, nutrients, and trace metals etc. thatare released by coastal/soil erosion and thawing of ice
sheet and permafrost. For marine ecosystems, obtaining
the observation data with no spatial and seasonal gap isimportant. For example, it is necessary to obtain the databy ice camps and year‐round observation by sediment
trap and mooring system to understand the seasonalvariation of biogeochemistry and ecosystems.
Furthermore, by comparing and integrating these datawith the numerical models and incubating/feeding
experiments, it is possible to evaluate quantitatively the
relationship between biogeochemical cycle andecosystem along with the effects of ocean acidification.

Theme 4: Ice sheet, glaciers, permafrost, snowfall, snow cover and hydrological cycle
Change to glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic region
between calving glaciers and the oceans, and theaffects the regional climate and hydrological cycle, andinfluence of cryosphere biology and ice quakes also needfurthermore, has effects on the global‐scale environment
to be advanced.
including sea level and albedo. Strong collaboration
Change in the surface layer of permafrost (active layer)
between in‐situ/ satellite observation and modeling is
is strongly related to snow cover and soil moisture, in
addition to warming in the area. When the active layer
important in order to clarify the variation mechanism andreaches the level of permafrost ice and melting proceeds,
to improve projections into the future. Moreover,understanding of phenomena such as interaction
irreversible thermokarst occurs, and resulting in feedback

Figure 6: Schematic diagram of the research on ice sheet/glacier, permafrost and snowfall/snow covervariation and hydrological cycle. [Theme 4]

12

to the climate system through ecological and hydrologicalprocesses. In order to clarify these changes, research
schemes based on integration of existing permafrost‐
observation networks, observation of land‐surface
processes, and support of satellite data and modeling, will
all be needed.
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere is decreasing,
especially in spring. However, existing information onquantitative and qualitative conditions is insufficient.
Integrated research schemes, consisting of combined insitu observation and satellite observation need to be
developed. Specific objectives should include
improvement of the accuracy of observations of winterprecipitation, snow quality and impurities/biologicalcomponents, as well as improvement of the snow‐covermodel.
Study of the hydrological cycle in the Arctic region,
including land, atmosphere and ocean, is proceeding ineach research field, but the current understanding of theinterrelationship between the fields is inadequate.
Continuation of land and satellite observations, andsynthetic study done under collaboration of terrestrial,
climate, hydrological, and ocean modeling is necessary.
With more data and insights, may come chances to clarify
the influences of frozen ground, snow cover, vegetation,
rivers, and meteorological conditions on the hydrologicalprocesses in the pan‐Arctic terrestrial region, and on thesea‐ice formation and material cycle in the Arctic Ocean.
In this theme, the following four scientific key
questions will be focused on.
Q1: Will the change in ice sheet and glaciers accelerate?
Q2: How will the permafrost change interlink withclimate change?
Q3: How is the snowfall and snow cover of the Arctic
Region changing?
Q4: How will the hydrological processes in the Arctic
change?

Theme 5: Interactions between the Arctic and the entire earth
In this theme, we discuss the interactions between the
expected to occur in this century.
Arctic region and global‐scale processes recognized by
The important research topics in the oceanographic
climate system research. In comparison with previous
field include water exchange between the Atlantic and theinterests, greater attention is now given to Arctic‐global
Pacific, deep water formation and the general circulationin the mid‐latitudes, all of which require the arrangement
interactions, exploring the potential significant effect ofof observational infrastructures such as a research vessel
atmospheric and ocean circulations in the Arctic on theand high‐resolution numerical models with modelother regions. One of the examples actively discussed
considers the impact of the sea ice decrease on the East
verification. In the terrestrial field, considerable attention
Asian monsoon in winter, which may contribute to thehas been paid to quantitative estimates of the effects ofimprovement of seasonal prediction of abnormal weather.
snow cover variability on energy and water balances overlarge areas, and also the effects of variability in
There are many suggestions from various points of view
biogeochemical cycles of soil, vegetation and permafrost,that the Arctic‐global interactions may need to be
explored well to facilitate our understanding of climate
in the form of carbon flux and so on. The most active
change over the time scale of several years to several tens
research until now was conducted by field observationsof years, including global warming.
and process modeling. However, further basic research is
The elements composing the climate system arenecessary to provide quantitative estimates of the effects
of terrestrial processes on climate variability at large
described first: i.e., the Arctic‐global interactions in eachscales, including the establishment of an assessmentof the tropospheric and stratospheric atmosphere, themethod for the terrestrial processes. With regard to theocean, land and the upper atmosphere. The central
research of the troposphere and stratosphere covers
upper atmosphere, the most important issues would be
dynamical processes of various teleconnection patterns
its variability in the mid‐ and low‐latitudes caused by anrelated to the westerlies and polar vortex surrounding theenergy injection into the polar region from the Sun
through the near Earth space, the cooling associated with
Arctic, and also in the climate variability mode such asincreasing greenhouse gases, and also the effects of the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The results of these studies willpolar upper atmosphere on the lower atmosphere. A
give a basic understanding on the interactions between
the atmosphere and the other systems (ocean, land anddeeper understanding of the roles of the upper
upper atmosphere), and also on the climate change
atmosphere on the climate system is expected by using
13

ground‐based
observation
networks,
satellite observations with multiple sensors
on a global scale, and numerical modelingwith the inclusion of photochemistry.
Following these approaches, we describe
the interactions among the systems
introduced above, such as the atmosphere,
being
remainedchallenging
issuescontinuously. The troposphere plays animportant role in the interactions, due to its
location among the others. It can interact
with the upper side, the stratosphere and theupper atmosphere, as well as the lower side,
the ocean and land. One of the examples
referred to at the beginning of this theme
was the effect of the sea ice decrease on the
East Asian monsoon in winter, which could be
Figure 7: The interactions between spheres: i.e., the atmosphere, theled to the feedback from the atmosphere toocean, land and the upper atmosphere. The mesosphere is the layer
sea ice.
defined to be part of the upper atmosphere and immediately above
The effects of the Arctic variability appear
the stratosphere. [Theme 5]
in the mid‐latitude area, such as the Far East,
formation reduced? Is general circulation modified in thewhere climate variability is significant. The research
mid‐latitudes?
community in Japan is supposed to play a major role inthis subject. In fact, the researchers in Japan have made a
Q3: Roles of land: How does the variability in vegetation
pronounced contribution to understanding the effects ofand permafrost have effects on carbon flux and thegeochemical cycle? How does the variability in snow cover
Arctic sea ice on atmospheric circulation. We are expected
and vegetation have effects on energy and water balances
to advance our knowledge of the Arctic climate system
at large scales?
within the global climate system, on the basis of thisresearch achievement. As a result, more sophisticated andQ4: Roles of the polar upper atmosphere: What effects
accurate prediction will not be limited to the Arctic
does the upper atmosphere in the polar region have on
climate, but also possible for the global climate.
the lower atmosphere and the whole region of the upper
atmosphere?
This theme is formed with the five key academic
Q5: Interactions among multiple spheres: Which one isquestions as follows:
the most influential on Arctic‐global interactions, among
Q1: Roles of the atmosphere: Is its variability intensified
the upper atmosphere, the atmosphere, snow andor weakened for example, the Arctic Oscillation?
Q2: Roles of the ocean: Is the water exchange between
vegetation on land, or the ocean?
the Atlantic and the Pacific intensified? Is the deep water

Theme 6: Predicting future environmental conditions of the Arctic based on paleoenvironmental records
concentrations were much higher than today, and when
The effects and feedbacks resulting from warming of
there were glacial‐interglacial cycles in which Arctic
the Arctic region on ice sheet, sea‐ice, permafrost, land
temperature and ice sheets underwent large variations
vegetation and aerosols continue to receive attention (seedue to Earth’s orbital cycles. By examining such records, it
Fig. 8). However, by studying only the modern and recent
is possible to understand the Arctic climate system andpast records, it is not possible to understand the entirety
test numerical models. Here, we list five questions forof the Arctic climate system which has time scales ofvariability over ten thousand years. During the past tens
reconstructing Arctic paleoenvironment and forof millions of years, there have been periods when there
understanding its mechanisms by linking data andwere no continental ice sheets and atmospheric CO2
numerical modeling.
14

ice cores and marine sediment cores as well asgeomorphological and geological surveys of land and sea‐
floor. Regarding the modeling, the approach is to develop
a coupled Earth system model including climate, ice
sheets, vegetation and solid Earth, and to conduct
numerous, long numerical simulations. While it isparticularly important to reconstruct and understandenvironmental conditions during previous warm periods,
it is also important to investigate instability and variabilityof the climate system by studying abrupt climate changes
which occurred repeatedly during glacial periods anddeglaciations, and natural climate variations ontimescales from years to centuries.

Q1: How different are the past Arctic amplifications
from that of today, and what are their causes?
Q2: How did the Greenland and continental ice sheetschange, and what caused them?
Q3: What were the environmental conditions of the
Arctic Ocean, especially in terms of sea‐ice and biologicalproductivity?
Q4:
How different were the terrestrial Arctic
paleoenvironmental conditions from that of today, andhow were they related with atmospheric composition andclimate?
Q5: Were the natural variability on timescales fromyears to centuries in the Arctic different from today?
Research methods include collection and analyses of

Figure 8: Climate feedbacks and resulting global temperature changes under doubling CO2.
The timescales of each climate component, as well as the relationship between the questionsin the text and climate components, are also shown. [Theme 6]

15

Theme 7: Effects of the Arctic environment on human society
The five academic questions in this theme are asserious impact on the residents who rely on fishing andfollows:
hunting sea creatures. In order to safely operate the Arctic
Q1: How do the impacts of climate change, including
sea routes, effective prediction of sea ice conditions is
global warming, appear?
essential. In addition to pollution associated with
Q2:
What apparent effects in the terrestrial
accidents such as groundings, livelihoods may be modified
environment change due to global warming?
by shipping, therefore development should be conducted
Q3: What apparent effects in the marine environment
with consideration of the impact on residents.
By using examples from the alarm system in Japan forchange due to global warming?
earthquakes and tsunami, we propose a method to cope
Q4: How do the impact of solar activity and the Arctic
upper atmosphere appear on the human societies?
with environmental problems that will be acceptable toQ5: How do the human societies in the Arctic respondresidents with a livelihood in the Arctic. The importantto these impacts?
point is cooperation with indigenous peoples, who
In the Arctic area, the natural environment is rapidly
account for the majority of the population in the region,and not forcing them to accept the methods in thechanging, for example, sea ice reduction, permafrost
developed nations. We will present research on thethawing, and changes in terrestrial vegetation and wild
animals, caused by proceeding global warming along with
impact on human societies and the countermeasuresdevelopment from the last century. As implied by thetaken, including information on humanities and socialincreasing interannual variability, unusual weather
sciences, and propose measures to be taken at each levelepisodes that we have never experienced are likely toof international relations, and the national and local
governments. The basis of the long‐term plan is tooccur more probably. Fluctuations in climate and weather
develop cooperation between the natural sciences anddiffer according to the region; therefore, the prior
the humanities and social sciences across the Arctic area,
selection of suitable varieties is necessary for effective
agricultural production. Vegetation and wild animals arewhich will extend beyond the existing environmental
seriously impacted by environmental change, including
research community.
forest fires, which causes significant problems forresidents with a livelihood in hunting. Disturbances
caused by solar activities create communication failures in
the polar region. As such, it is necessary
to intend to preserve the environment
and living conditions by taking
measures and advantage to reduce theemission of greenhouse gases; forexample, carbon credit.
As the sea ice retreats, seasonal ice
cover basically expands in the Arctic
Ocean. Since the Arctic Ocean is a semi‐
enclosed basin influenced by riverwater, the deep basin and bottom
sediments, the variability in nutrient
distribution is complicated. In addition,
it is the first place in the world to suffer
marine acidification. As for fisheryresources suitable for the Arctic Ocean,Figure 9: The impact of Arctic environmental changes on the human
we should be concerned with resource
society. [Theme 7]
management, keeping in mind the16(2) Elucidation of environmental change concerning biodiversity
Ecosystems are affected by global warming and other various environmental changes caused by both natural andhuman factors. Here we describe the mechanisms in ecosystems and effects on that, and note current status and changes
in biodiversity.

Theme 8: Effects on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and its biodiversity are
considered. Because Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are now
now exposed to significant changes due to strong impact
facing serious changes that caused by human activities,of human activities such as global warming. Comparedsuch as agriculture and forestry and exotic species otherwith other ecosystems of the world such as temperate andthan climate change, we have to highlight the importanceof field observations and experiments, remote sensing,tropical, the expected environmental changes in the Arctic
and simulation studies that integrate spot fieldterrestrial regions are particularly strong (IPCC AR5), andobservations and predict future ecosystem conditions in
we have to predict the future conditions by promoting
research and organizing the knowledge about the effects
large scale. Studies and observations on biodiversity ofof the environmental changes. Nevertheless, research on
the Arctic terrestrial regions are not progressed
Arctic terrestrial ecosystems is significantly delayed, whensufficiently due to the vastness of the region, but further
expansion of the investigation, networking of the fieldcompared with other ecosystems, and a strong emphasis
studies, and studies on ecosystem and biodiversity underon this topic is urgently needed.
the environmental changes are required. Changes in the
In Topic 8, Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversitythat is an important component of the ecosystem, andecosystem will have strong impacts on animals such as
impacts from changes in ecosystems and biodiversity on
mammals and birds. In addition, since the effect of thethe climate change and regional communities are
Arctic terrestrial ecosystems that accumulate large
amounts of soil organic carbon
in the vast wetlands on the
global carbon cycle is large, itis essential to enhance bothfield and simulation studies
that are essential to makeappropriate predictions using
explicit
reproductionofecosystem processes.
Here we have three study
questions:
Q1:
What environmental
changes will occur in the Arctic
terrestrial ecosystems due toanthropogenic factors?
Q2: How is the biodiversity
affected?
Q3: What are the impacts on
climate and animals due to thechangesintheArcticterrestrial ecosystems?
Figure 10: The interactions between the spheres Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, its
biodiversity and human society. [Theme 8]17

Theme 9: Influence on marine ecosystem and biodiversity
Because the surface of the Arctic Ocean is extensively
as well as additional influences on material transport,
covered by sea‐ice, inhabiting marine biota thrive by
biodiversity via food chain and competitive relationships.
adjusting to the unique environment formed according to
The change in species diversity significantly affects
the characteristics of the ecosystem. However, the Arctic
productivity and decomposition of the ecosystem.
sea‐ice ecosystem has been disappearing due to the rapid
Therefore,
quantitativeinterpretationofthedecrease of sea‐ice cover caused by the recent warming.
environments surrounding the sea‐ice ecosystem of the
We now list the following four questions and describe our
Arctic Ocean and each of the processes and mechanisms
long term view for future research by focusing on thein the ecosystem is important for assessing the influenceon future sea‐ice ecosystem and biodiversity of the Arctic
changes occurring from perennial to seasonal sea‐ice
Ocean.
formation, which affect the marine ecosystem andHowever, most of the knowledge that has been
biological diversity in the Arctic ocean.
obtained thus far is tempo‐spatially fragmentary because
Q1: Are the ecosystem and biodiversity of the Arctic
Ocean significantly affected by the substance in thethat it is based on the limited data from open waters
atmosphere and from the terrestrial areas?
during summer season when research vessels can safely
cruise around in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the sea‐
Q2: How do the biota of the Arctic Ocean transport andice ecosystem has aspects where almost no information ischange in quality of substance?
available due to the complex relationships among physical,
Q3: How the food chain and changes in ecosystem andchemical, and biological processes. Therefore, our long‐
biodiversity are related in the Arctic Ocean?
term goal is to clarify the influence of the Arctic Ocean on
Q4: How does ocean acidification and denitrification in
the Arctic Ocean influence the ecosystem andthe ecosystem and biodiversity, not only by conducting
multidirectional observations in extensive areas with thebiodiversity?
use of ice breakers and mooring systems, but also by
The dramatic environmental changes in the Arctic
conducting interdisciplinary research that links process
Ocean are of concern because, not only is biologicalexperiments and numerical modeling.
production in the Arctic Ocean altered, but also thedisappearance of biota and entry of new biota may occur,

Figure 11: Influence of material flow from land and the atmosphere and thevarious types of processes in the ocean involving living things. [Theme 9]18

(3) Broad and important subjects on the Arctic environment
Important environmental research that is not included in the focus of the previous two areas are also underway for
the Arctic. We selected activities which were highlighted as research themes by the JCAR community. Following advancesin research, this work will potentially provide further information relating to the former two focal points. In addition, it
includes the research areas that describe the basic information on the focal points.

Theme 10: Geospace environment
Due to the precipitation of charged particles and the
propagation of electromagnetic waves from geospace(space around the Earth that is part of the active region
for humans), it has been noted that in recent years theupper and lower atmosphere of the Arctic region is
subject to change. In particular, minor constituent
variations in the middle/upper atmosphere and its impact
on the ozone concentration and stratosphere‐
troposphere coupling such as the downward propagationof the Arctic Oscillation — effect of the upper atmosphereon the lower atmosphere attracted the interest in the
recent. It has also become clear that the atmosphericwaves excited in the lower atmosphere have a great
influence on the thermal and dynamical structure of the
middle/upper atmosphere. In addition, the results alsosuggest a significant increase in the cooling of the
middle/upper atmosphere with increasing greenhousegases. It is believed that understanding the various
coupling process between the lower atmosphere and theupper atmosphere is important in order to appreciate thefull extent of the Arctic environment. However, little
progress has been made with a quantitative impact
assessment.

Electromagnetic and particle energies entering fromthe Solar wind and magnetosphere to the polar upper
atmosphere cause fluctuations in the upper atmosphereat the low/middle latitudes (including large‐scale
fluctuations such as magnetic storms). In addition,
atmospheric waves generated from the lower atmospheremay contribute to driving the global scale atmosphericcirculation. However, the full extent of such changes on a
global scale is still unknown. As one of the important
information infrastructure businesses that support thehuman society, it is necessary to monitor the polar upper
atmosphere in order to provide effective, reliable
detection and prediction of ionospheric disturbancephenomenon. It is expected that in the next few years,
geospace exploration, including the middle/upper
atmosphere, will be achieved using new satellite/rocket
observations and large atmospheric radar observations. In
conjunction with these enhanced observations, there is aneed to develop a research framework to evaluate andpredict the influence of geospace on the upper
atmosphere and lower atmosphere. Questions about the
impact of the geospace environment on the Arctic
environment and the connection between the geospaceand Arctic environments are
summarized as follows:
Q1: What are the effects ofgeospace
on
the
upper
atmosphere
and
lower
atmosphere?
Q2: What are the effects of theupper atmosphere on thelower/middle atmosphere?
Q3: What are the effects of thelower/middle
atmosphere
the
upper
changeonatmosphere?
Q4:
How important is theenergy flow from the polar region
into the middle/low latitudes
through the upper atmosphere?
Figure 12: Relationship of four Key Questions of theme 10.
19

Theme 11: Interaction of surface environment change with solid earth
The spreading and subduction of oceanic floor occur byenvironmental change with various time and space scales.
thermal convection of solid earth’s interior, and causes
Q1: What is the interaction between the currently active
phenomena such as the formation of new marine andhydrothermal system of Arctic mid‐ocean ridges and themarine environment?
collision of the continents. The change in the
Q2: How is the solid earth deformed by an ice sheet
configuration of the ocean and the continents at thechange?
earth’s surface due to thermal convection of the earth’s
interior is an important factor that causes the shift of
Q3: In the process of the Arctic Ocean formation, howenvironmental changes such as the atmospheric anddid the interaction of the atmosphere ‐ ice sheet ‐ ocean
oceanic circulations and the ice sheet. On the other hand,change?
changes in the volume and geographical location of the ice
Q4: How did the development process of the Arctic
sheet and seawater due to climate change lead not only
Ocean and surrounding continents affect the surface
environment change on the time scales from tens of
to sea level change, but also to the deformation of solid
earth, such as the crustal movement and mantle flow. It
millions of years to several billions of years?
has been thought that the climate and solid earth interact
Question 1 focuses on the hydrothermal system of thewith each other over a range of time and space scales,
Gakkel ridge, which is one of the currently active mid‐
however, the mechanisms are not clear, which prevents us
ocean ridges under multi‐year sea ice and has not been
understanding the whole earth system. In particular, thewell researched. The aim of the research regarding Q1 is
Arctic region where interactions, such as crustal
to clarify the causes, the local ecosystem, and the effectdeformation due to ice sheet mass change, occur overof oceanic circulation on the hydrothermal system of thevarious time scales, and the formation and fragmentation
Gakkel ridge.
of the continent with the time scale of several billions of
Question 2 applies to the observational study on theyears, is key to solving the problem. In this chapter, wecurrent crustal deformation with the load change of ice
have set the following four questions for the research
sheet, which is a unique phenomenon of polar regionswith a spatial scale of several thousand kilo‐meters and aplans on the solid earth changes in order to understandtime scale of tens of thousands years. This study, in thethe interaction between solid earth and surface

Figure 13: Important research theme on the interaction of the solid earth with the outer layer environmentchange. [Theme 11]20

areas of Greenland ice sheet, northern Canada and their
marginal ocean, aims to clarify the mechanisms of ice
sheet changes and viscosity structure of earth’s interior bygeomorphological, geological and geodetic investigations
together with modeling study.
Question 3 applies to establishing the formation historyof the Arctic Ocean on a scale with hundreds of millions ofyears and the changes of atmosphere ‐ ice sheet ‐ oceaninteraction. Most of the Arctic Ocean floor remains
uninvestigated due to sea ice cover. The objectives of thisstudy are to (i) determine the history of the Arctic Ocean
seafloor via geophysical and geological investigations, (ii)clarify the changes in the atmosphere ‐ ice sheet ‐ oceaninteraction by investigating the reconstruction of thepaleoclimate and paleoenvironment by the sedimentcollection, and (iii) estimate the time for ice sheet
expansion in Arctic Ocean formation and the expansion
associated with the tectonic history of the Arctic Ocean.
The last question Q4 is on a change of the solid earthon the several billions of years scale, and aims principallyto analyze the earth’s surface environment change on thescale of 3‐4 billion by the earth crust study with mainly thegeological investigations in the continent around theArctic region. The promotion of the research on thehistory of global environment change on the long
geological time scale from the early days of the earth
formation to now by a geological investigation in the
Canadian Arctic and west coast of Greenland, where exists
a stratum of approximately 3‐4 billion years old, issuggested.

Theme 12: Basic understanding on formation and transition process of permafrost
Permafrost regions occupy approximately 25% of thethe observational sites are limited in terms ofland area. It is one of the major factors affecting the Arctic
representing the whole region, and observation fromsatellites is challenging. It is therefore necessary toenvironment through the complicated feedback of heatdevelop new observation techniques and to improve theand materials with atmosphere and vegetation, etc. It is aexisting methodology, as well as to expand thepotential GHG source due to the surface thawing.
observation sites and to carry out multi‐point
However, there is a lack of detailed scientificunderstanding on the present state and dynamics ofmeasurements. It is becoming increasingly important tochanging permafrost distribution. Therefore, there is
improve the knowledge of detailed permafrost
considerable uncertainty regarding the future projection
distribution and the heterogeneity of its composition, andto increase the information regarding the change ofof permafrost variation. The main reason for this situation
ground temperature, the amount and the state of ice andis that the spatial heterogeneity of the permafrost is large,

Figure 14: Distribution of permafrost in the northern hemisphere. Partially revised USGS
Professional Paper 1386‐A. [Theme 12]21

Q1: Permafrost distribution: how is the permafrost in
the arctic distributed, both horizontally (in terms of space)and vertically (in terms of depth)?
Q2: Permafrost composition: what material does thepermafrost consist of, and how heterogeneous is it?
Q3: Warming and thawing of the permafrost: what isthe process, and on what scale does it happen?
Q4: Permafrost‐Atmosphere‐Snow‐Vegetation system:
what is its structure and behavior?

organic carbon storage. Permafrost study should focus onmodeling and quantifying the process of changing
permafrost based on distributional information. We needto integrate our scientific knowledge and techniques withthe modeling in order to understand the behavior of thepermafrost land system and the variation of arctic
environment system.
In this theme, the following four questions will be
discussed.

(4) Development of methods enabling breakthroughs in environmental research
The pioneering breakthrough research is triggered by innovative deployment of observation and modeling technique.
Process research and monitoring of mutual enlightenment, system modeling and data assimilation is important.
Identify the current gap, as well as efficiently conducting research and leading to the need for research infrastructure.
Overcome the handicap by the complexity and difficulty of the data acquisition of the Arctic, and contribute to the global
scale study.

Theme A: Sustainable seamless monitoring
Research monitoring of the Arctic environment has
been carried out as two elements, remote sensing,including the satellite and in situ observation.
Environmental change in the Arctic is important withregard to global scale influences; however, because of theseverity of the Arctic environment, in situ fieldobservations are hampered by the sparseness ofobserving stations and subsequent large areas with nodata. Although, due to recent progress, satellite
monitoring has generated new information, there arestill many factors that need to be observed in situ. The
most important point of monitoring is to collectcontinuous, representative data. International
cooperation is essential to enable this; therefore, Japanis also required to play a role.
As a matter of convenience, if the subject ofmonitoring is classified into the oceanic, cryospheric,atmospheric and terrestrial area, then the long‐term
priority issues that Japan should tackle are as follows.
For the ocean area, the monitorings of sea ice change,marine ecosystem and material cycle through the year,with our own icebreaker and satellites are needed. In
the cryosphere, determining the mass balance andrelated various quantities of the Greenland ice sheet
and the mountain glaciers of the Arctic Circle, coastal
erosion and thermokarst associated with thawing andborehole management of permafrost is essential. In
the atmosphere, precise long‐term observation andunderstanding of the spatial variation of atmosphericminor constituents involved in the climate, cloud andprecipitation is essential. For the terrestrial monitoring,
maintenance and development of observing stations(super site) overall to perform monitoring of vegetation
change, terrestrial ecosystems and meteorological andFigure 15: Elements necessary for the monitoring of marine
ecology in the future (conceptual diagram). [Theme A]

22

Figure 16: Elements necessary for the monitoring of atmospheric minor constituents in the
future (conceptual diagram). [Theme A]

hydrological observations, including heat, water andcarbon fluxes in the terrestrial sphere are needed. With
respect to these issues, monitoring conducted by both insitu observations and remote sensing is required.
Here, we describe the monitoring initiative byclassifying areas into oceanic, cryospheric, atmosphericand terrestrial.
Q1: Oceanic monitoring
Q2: Cryospheric monitoring
Q3: Atmospheric monitoring
Q4: Terrestrial monitoring

Theme B: Earth system‐modeling for inter‐disciplinary research
If we try to understand the Arctic area, in which various
more efficient by selecting the one suitable for the timecomplex processes interact with each other, we need anscale of the subject concerned. If the models are used toearth system model to deal with the entire system. Here,predict outcomes for several years or less, they must be
the current state and challenges of modeling are
precise and reliable. Hence, we need to achieve a higher
resolution in regional models. The models for studying thediscussed, from the aspect of individual fields, such as thelonger time scales need to provide a secureatmosphere, ocean and land, and also system modeling ofintegrated fields. The key questions are as follows:
representation of paleoenvironmental experiments andQ1: What are the development challenges for earth
future projection. For this purpose, it is desirable tosystem modeling?
develop models that replicate the heat and water
Q2:
What are the development challenges forbalances and represent the geochemical
cycles,atmospheric modeling?
ecosystems, snow and ice processes accurately. Of
primary importance for both cases is the correct selection
Q3: What are the development challenges for ocean‐of parameters, and also the evaluation of the effectsea ice modeling?
caused by an error generated in one of the other elements.
Q4: What are the development challenges for land‐cryosphere modeling?
Each field, which forms the earth system model, has its
For research using the earth system model, we can be
own subject. The central subject for the atmospheric23

Figure 17: The time scales of the representative models (upper part) and the time scales of major processes inrelation with the Arctic area. [Theme B]

models is verification of a non‐hydrostatic, high‐resolution
model which explicitly describes the behaviors of clouds,
and also a hydrostatic normal‐resolution model with thecloud parameterization by using cloud data. The subjects
for the ocean models are improvement of water mass
formation modified by the inflows to the Arctic Ocean andvertical mixing, and also parameterization of theecosystem processes. The sea ice models have the subject
to improve dynamic and thermodynamic processes at thepack ice scale and also mixed‐layer processes under sea

ice cover. The subjects for the land surface models include
verification by use of paleoenvironmental indices,
application of data assimilation techniques, improvementof duplication of interactions with the other elements,
and then, development of the framework within thesystem model for long‐term integration or off‐line
experiments. Our preference would be to use the earthsystem model as a basis for linking various fields of the
Arctic area, through the initiatives described for theindividual fields.

Theme C: Data assimilation to connect monitoring and modeling
Here, we describe the techniques of data assimilation
sheet, some applied examples are introduced. The current
and the application to the Arctic environmental research,situation, as described above, has been built on thealong with a survey of the present status. It has beenknowledge that long‐term monitoring is important, theconfirmed that advanced techniques are in place for thereinforcement by the improvement of observation
techniques and the recognition of rapid climate change.
operational forecast and the reanalysis system to be
On this basis, the future direction is proposed to combine
applied to the atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean system. In thefields where data assimilation techniques have not been
observational techniques, and networks as well as
applied extensively, such as state estimation of the ice
numerical modeling techniques. For practical reasons,24data assimilation research for the Arctic
has to be selected according to thehandicaps of the area: i.e., atmosphericmeasurements have limited coverage, sea
ice thickness is not measured in‐situ, andremote sensing data are not available forthe sea water. The long‐term future
direction is likely to be challenging for data
assimilation to the multi‐disciplinary
system and aiming at the operational
objective to implement forecast of the
Arctic Ocean state for the safe sea routes.
Considering the limited resources for
Arctic research in Japan, an appropriate
path is presented here, with regard to data
assimilation research proposal. This report
has touched on the necessary terminology
for data assimilation literature andinformation on the discussed technology.

Figure 18: 4‐dimensional variational (4DVar) method and Kalman filter
method. Red circles denote observed data, black circles and lines denoteanalysis values, and blue circles denote model prediction values. Statevariables can be temperature, velocity and others. [Theme C]

5. Improvement of research foundation
Various organizations, systems, and facilities are needed to pursue the research themes described previously, but they
are cited individually. We have reorganized them here, since there are many common items among the themes, andshould be grouped together as a proposal on community infrastructure.

Research vessels
Japan does not possess an ice breaking research vessel,
which can operate in the Arctic Ocean, and they were
therefore obliged to use foreign vessels to do observations.
In these cases, observations were limited and developinga sound observation plan was challenging. This is a crucial
matter that needs to be overcome. A new research ice
breaker is the way to overcome this situation. This would
allow us to both lead and vastly improve the observation
ability of the Arctic Ocean. The equipment particularly
needed includes a : moon pool, multi‐purpose winch,
automatic launcher for radio sonde, ROV (remotely
vehicle),chemical‐biological‐geologicaloperatedlaboratory (including cold rooms), long‐time navigation
capable and multi‐sensor equipped AUV (autonomous
underwater vehicle), sampling capable ROVF, long andlarge diameter piston corer, multi‐beam bathymeter for
ocean bottom survey, sub‐bottom profiler for strata
probing.

distribution by using a micro‐wave radiometer installedsatellite, which would double the present spatial
resolution of AMSR2 (89GHz and 3～5km). An integrated
observation system of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and
Laser/Radar altimeter is also very effective for detecting
the mass change of the ice sheet/glacier, sea ice and snow
cover. There is also a need to develop a satellite formeasuring gravity.
Japan previously depended upon the USA for visible
sensor monitoring of the terrestrial and marine ecosystem,
but now has plans to launch GCOM‐C1/SGLI.

Aircraft
Aircrafts are needed to provide a platform for using theelectromagnetic induction probe (EM) in addition
allowing the direct measurement of the atmosphericcomposition and cloud particles. In the past, commercial
aircraft were used for such Arctic observations, but since
the development of observation instruments, the mosteffective plan is to possess a purpose‐built aircraft. On theother hand, the usage of un‐manned aircraft may also bea possibility.

Satellite
It is necessary to improve the observation of sea ice

25

Oversea research and observation base
From the standpoint of international cooperation andsustaining/process observation, the priority will be to
improve/develop the Arctic observation site and network,
including the supersites, and steadily collect the various
environmental parameters within it. Regions andCountries where geographical position is important for
Arctic Research, such as Svalbard, Russia, Alaska, andCanada, an observation/research base will need to be
developed and founded on Bi‐lateral Cooperation.
Existence of such a base is also important for humanresource development, especially young scientists. Thereis also a need for the Institute to maintain and manage theoverseas research base in cooperation with foreign
includingthenecessary
domestic
countries,
arrangements.

and various academic societies. To achieve this, firstly,
there is a need to strengthen the Core Agency, so that thedomestic promotion and implementation system canadvance using the initiative of this Institute. Secondly, themain Institutes need to take responsibility for the various
research infrastructures and scientific research areas
under the cooperative relations. On the other hand, theexistence of JCAR, which can gather various scientists todiscuss / propose new scientific issues and directions isneeded, due to understand the nature of the Arctic
Change which requires much discussion between thevarious scientific disciplines. Lastly, good international
coordination and cooperation is needed in Japan, due tothe internationality of the Arctic Change issues, and also
due to the fact that Japanese scientists will perform
observations in foreign countries.

Data archive
The important element in this is stability and flexibility.
The system needs to be user friendly and must accept
various format data. A Data Center is needed, where
reproduction of data, digitization and authorization of DOI
for identification will be performed. Development of aCenter will be only possible with the cooperation of aninternational data center, and use of other databases.

Instruments(Atmosphere, Upper‐Atmosphere, Cryosphere, Land
and Ocean)
There is a great need for instruments. One example isthe development of a large radar network with EISCAT‐
3D 13 , MU radar at Shigaraki, Japan, Equatorial
Atmospheric radar in Indonesia, etc. for the distributed
monitoring of upper‐atmosphere. As an example ofchemical analysis, continuous development of a high‐resolution stable isotope analyzer for aerosols and gas,
and a high resolution ice‐core melt analyzer, is required in
the area of glaciology. For the terrestrial vegetation, aHyper Spectral Camera 14 , which will reveal thecomposition of the tree, is necessary. Development of anobservation platform, such as ROV and AUV, is also
important to be able to observe the sea ice from below.

Human resource development
From the stand point of training of young researcher,
JCAR needs to cooperate with the activities of APECS10,
and cooperate with Japanese Universities to strengthen
the partnership with UArctic 11 , UNIS 12 and other
Universities in the Arctic. Programs needed are, internsystem, summer school and development of career path,and continuation of the GRENE Fellowship for Japanese
Early Career Scientists and Graduate Students. It is also
advisable to start an invitation program for young
researchers in the indigenous community.

Numerical model
In addition to hardware such as massive calculation
resources and large storage, there is a need to secure
human resources to develop models and run the
hardware. Furthermore, a system which will dispose
research technicians to prepare data and develop source
codes is needed.

Research promotion system in JapanThe most important thing is to develop a domestic
system for strong Arctic Environment Research under thecooperation of the research institutes, universities, JCAR,10APECS: Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
UArctic: The University of the Arctic is a cooperative network of universities, colleges, research institutes and other organizations
concerned with education and research in and about the North. From Japan, Hokkaido University has been appointed as an associate
member of UArctic since 2011.
12 UNIS: The University Centre in Svalbard is the world’s northernmost higher education institution, located in Longyearbyen at 78º N. UNIS
offers high quality courses at the undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate level in Arctic Biology, Arctic Geology, Arctic Geophysics andArctic Technology. National Institute of Polar Research manages an office in it.
13 EISCAT‐3D: European Incoherent Scatter radar.
14 Hyper Spectral Camera: Much as the human eye sees visible light in three bands (red, green, and blue), spectral imaging divides the
spectrum into many more bands. This technique of dividing images into bands can be extended beyond the visible.
1126

Authors and reviewers
・ Numbers and alphabets in parentheses indicate the section that the author is assigned to. 1‐12 and A‐C means the name of the themes.
F means Improvement of Research foundation.
・ “*” or “+” beside the numbers and alphabets signify the lead author or the second lead author of the theme.
・ Names are listed by alphabetical order.

【Authors】
ABE Manabu(1), ABE‐OUCHI Ayako(1+,4,6,B*,F), AOKI Kazuma(1), AOKI Shuji(3), AOKI Teruo(1*,4,A,F), ARAKIDA Hazuki(7,8),
CHIKITA Kazuhisa(3), DOI Koichiro(11), ENOMOTO Hiroyuki(1 +,4), FUJII Yoshiyuki(4,6,11,12,A,F), FUJITA Shigeru(10),
FUJIWARA Hitoshi(1,5,10,F), FURUYA Masato(F), GOTO‐AZUMA Kumiko(4,6), HAJIMA Tomohiro(8), HARA Keiichiro(3,A),
HARA Toshihiko(3,8*), HARADA Koichiro(12,A), HARADA Naomi(3 + ,6), HARAGUCHI Akira(8), HASUMI Hiroyasu(1,5),
HATTORI Hiroshi(9), HAYASAKA Hiroshi(3,7,8), HIRANO Daisuke(2), HIRASAWA Naohiko(4), HIRAWAKE Toru(3,9*,F),
HIROTA Nagio(1,5), HOKADA Tomokazu(11), HONDA Meiji(1,5), HORI Masahiro(F), HORI Masatake(1,5), ICHII Kazuhito(A),IIDA Takahiro(9,A), IIJIMA Yoshihiro(4*,F), IIZUKA Yoshinori(6), IKEDA Motoyoshi(1,2,5,7*,9,B,C+,F), INOUE Jun(1,2,5,C),
ISE Takeshi(3,8+,B,F), ISHII Masayoshi(1), ISHIKAWA Mamoru(3,4,12+,F), IWAHANA Go(4,6,12), KAERIYAMA Masahide(9),KANAO Masaki(4), KAWAGUCHI Yusuke(2), KAWAMURA Kenji(4,6*,11,F), KIMURA Noriaki(2,A), KOBASHI Takuro(1,6),
KOJIMA Satoru(3,8), KOMURO Yoshiki(1,B + ,F), KONYA Keiko(A), KUMA Kenshi(3), MATOBA Sumito(4,6),
MATSUMURA Kanichiro(7), MATSUNO Kohei(9), MATSUOKA Atsushi(3), MATSUURA Yojiro(3), MIURA Hideki(6,11 + ),MIYOSHI Yasunobu(1,5,10), MIYOSHI Yoshizumi(7,10), MIZOBATA Kohei(2,5,A,F), MORIMOTO Shinji(A), MORISHITA Tomoaki(3),NAGATA Toshi(3), NAKAMURA Hisashi(5), NIHASHI Sohey(2,A), NISHINO Shigeto(3,F), NISHIOKA Jun(2,3,F),
NOGI Yoshifumi(11*,F), NOMURA Daiki(2,F), NOZAWA Satonori(10), O’ISHI Ryouta(1,3,6,B), OGAWA Yasunobu(1,5,10*),
OHATA Tetsuo(3,4,8,12,F), OHSHIMA Kay I.(2 + ,A), OHTA Takeshi(4), OKAMOTO Hajime(1,F), OKUNO Jun’ichi(6,11),
ONO Jun(2,B,C), ONODERA Jonaotaro(9), OSHIMA Kazuhiro(4), OTSUKA Yuichi(7,10), PARK Hotaek(3,4), SAITO Fuyuki(4,6,B),
SAITO Kazuyuki(3,12), SAITOH Sei‐Ichi(7,9), SAKANOI Kazuyo(1,5,10), SAMPEI Makoto(3,9), SATO Atsushi(7), SATO Hisashi(B),
SATOH Masaki(1,B), SAWAGAKI Takanobu(F), SEKI Osamu(6), SHIOBARA Masataka(1,F), SHIOKAWA Kazuo(10),SUEYOSHI Tetsuo(4,6,12*,A,F), SUGANUMA Yusuke(6,11), SUGIMOTO Atsuko(3,A,F), SUGIURA Konosuke(4),SUGIYAMA Shin(4+,11,A,F), SUMATA Hiroshi(1,C), SUZUKI Kazuyoshi(4), SUZUKI Rikie(1,3*,5,8,A,F), TACHIBANA Yoshihiro(5),TAKAHASHI Hideki(8), TAKAKURA Hiroki(7 + ), TAKATA Kumiko(5 + ), TAKAYA Koutarou(5*), TAKEMURA Toshihiko(1),TAKEUCHI Nozomu(4), TAMURA Takeshi(2,A+,F), TANAKA L. Hiroshi(5), TANIKAWA Tomonori(F), TATEYAMA Kazutaka(F),TATSUZAWA Shirow(7,8), TOMIKAWA Yoshihiro(1,5,10+), TOYODA Takahiro(2,5,C), TOYOTA Takenobu(2,A,F), TSUBOI Seiji(4,7),
TSUYUZAKI Shiro(8), UCHIDA Masaki(3), UCHIMIYA Mario(9), UEMURA Ryu(6), UKITA Jinro(5), WAKAMATSU Tsuyoshi(C*),
WATANABE Eiji(2*,B,C,F), WATANABE Masahiro(1,5), WATANABE Yutaka(3), WATANUKI Yutaka(9+), YABUKI Hironori(F),YAMAGUCHI Atsushi(9), YAMAGUCHI Hajime(7), YAMAMOTO Masanobu(6 +,F), YAMAMOTO‐KAWAI Michiyo(3,4,9,F),
YAMANOUCHI Takashi(1,3,A,F), YAMAZAKI Koji(1,5), YAMAZAKI Takeshi(4,A*,B), YOSHIDA Ryuhei(5,8,F),
YOSHIMORI Masakazu(1+,6,B), YOSHIMURA Kei(1,4,6+)【Reviewers】
EJIRI Mitsumu K.(5), EMORI Seita(B), FUJII Yoshiyuki(1), FUJIMAKI Yuzo(8), FUKUDA Yoichi(11), HARADA Naomi(9),HASUMI Hiroyasu(2), HIYAMA Tetsuya(4,12), HORIUCHI Kazuho(6), HOSOKAWA Keisuke(10), ICHII Kazuhito(5),IKEDA Atsushi(12), ISHII Masayoshi(C), KAWAMURA Ryuichi(5), KIKUCHI Takashi(2,5), KISHIGAMI Nobuhiro(7),KITAGAWA Hiromitsu(7), MITANI Yoko(9), NAKAMURA Takuji(10), NAKANO Hideyuki(C), OHTA Takeshi(A), OKINO Kyoko(11),SAIGUSA Nobuko(3), SASAKI Hiroshi(3), TAKAHASHI Kozo(6), TAKAHASHI Shuhei(4), TOKIOKA Tatsushi(B)27

【JCAR Long‐term planning working group members】
FUJII Yoshiyuki, IKEDA Motoyoshi, ISE Takeshi, KODAMA Yuji, OHATA Tetsuo, SUGIYAMA Shin, WATANABE Eiji,
YAMAMOTO‐KAWAI Michiyo, YAMANOUCHI Takashi, YOSHIDA Ryuhei, YOSHIMORI Masakazu【Steering committee members of Japan consortium for Arctic environmental research】
The 1st term (May 2011 to June 2013)
ABE‐OUCHI Ayako, AOKI Teruo, ENOMOTO Hiroyuki, FUKUDA Masami, GOTO‐AZUMA Kumiko, HASUMI Hiroyasu,
HIYAMA Tetsuya, IGARASHI Tamotsu, KANDA Hiroshi, KIKUCHI Takashi, MATSUURA Yojiro, NAKAMURA Takuji,
NAKATSUBO Takayuki, NOZAWA Toru, OHATA Tetsuo, OHSHIMA Kay I., SAITOH Sei‐Ichi, SHIMADA Koji, SUGIMOTO Atsuko,
SUGIYAMA Shin, TANAKA L. Hiroshi, YABUKI Hironori, YAMAGUCHI Hajime, YAMANOUCHI Takashi
The 2nd term (Since June 2013)
ABE‐OUCHI Ayako, AOKI Teruo, ENOMOTO Hiroyuki, FUKAMACHI Yasushi, FUKUDA Masami, GOTO‐AZUMA Kumiko,
HASUMI Hiroyasu, HIYAMA Tetsuya, HORI Masahiro, MATSUURA Yojiro, NAKAMURA Hisashi, NAKAMURA Takuji,
NAKATSUBO Takayuki, NOZAWA Toru, OHATA Tetsuo, SAITOH Sei‐Ichi, SHIMADA Koji, SUGIMOTO Atsuko,
SUGIYAMA Shin, TANAKA L. Hiroshi, YABUKI Hironori, YAMAGUCHI Hajime, YAMANOUCHI Takashi

Long‐term Plan for Arctic Environmental Research
Summary Edition
Japan Consortium for Arctic Environmental Research, JCAR
Published in November 2014
Revised in March 2015
Original Japanese version was published in September 2014, Revised in March 2015.

Contact: JCAR Officein National Institute of Polar Research
10‐3, Midori‐cho, Tachikawa‐shi, Tokyo 190‐8518 JapanE‐mail: jcar‐office＠nipr.ac.jp28

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