Technology Strategies for Climate Protection
FY2012 ALPS International Symposium
Tokyo, February 27, 2013arnulf.grubler@yale.edu

The Space of ETIS
Energy system component(technologies)

Innovation life cycle stage
R&D

Niche
Diffusion
Markets

Phase-out

End use(energy services)
Conversion (tofuels/electricity)

Supply(extraction)

Levels of investment & capital depreciation

ETIS
Innovation systemcomponents:• Life-cycle stages• Innovation processes(R&D to obsolescence)• Feedbacks

Drivers:• Knowledge• Actors/Institutions• Resources• Technology

KNOWLEDGE
Generation codification
R&D

Learningspillovers(by doing/using)depreciation

Knowledge Management: Impact of R&D ExpenditureContinuity on Knowledge Stock Depreciation,
Nuclear vs. Efficiency (IEA countries)
iea nuclear R&D and knowledge stock 1974-2007 (billion US$2005)

1000 12

9R&D expenditures billion US$2005

R&D expenditures billion US$2005

12iea efficiency R&D and knowledge stock (billion US$2005)

1000

Efficiency
9100

6100

6R&D
relacement level R&D 20%dr
KS0%DR
KS10%DR
KS20%DR
KS40%DR

103Nuclear01
35 1980791975113 15 1990
17 19 21
23 25 2000
27 29 31331985
1995
2005

1110301
135 1980
791975

1985

11131517 19 211995
23 25 27
29 312005
3319902000

Source: GEA KM24

Resistance to change
exchange &advocacy sharedcoalitions expectations interaction

ACTORS &INSTITUTIONS
entrepreneurs& risk taking

“North”-”South” Clean Energy Technology Cooperation
IEA: Implementing Agreements(number of agreements, by category)
Renew ables andHydrogen

End-Use: Buildings

Fossil f uels

End-Use: Transport

End-Use: Electricity

Cross-Cutting

Fussion Pow er

End-Use: Industry

0255075

100125150

IEA members
IEA non-members

Largest DC participation: concentrated solar, biofuels (8 countries),
fossil fuels [coal] (India, China, Mexico, SA), fusion (China, India, Russia)

RESOURCES

public policy

legacy offailure

Resource mobilisation

Current Public ETIS Policy Focus(policy-induced resource mobilization, billion US$2005)

Source: Wilson/Grubler/Gallagher/Nemet, Nature CC 2012

end-use
services
economiesof scope

TECHNOLOGY

economiesof scalediseconomies
of scaleOpening the Black Box of “Learning”: Example Wind

Learning Rates US Wind Turbines

experience measurecum MW cum Units

costs uncorrected

15.0

26.9

costs corr. for scale economies

8.6

15.9

Source: Grubler/Wilson, in press, and ALPS-2012 Reportgeneration codification

learning

spillovers
end-useservices
economiesof scope

exchange &advocacy sharedcoalitions expectations interaction

Resistance to change

depreciation

economiesof scaleRESOURCES

public policy

legacy offailure

TECHNOLOGYACTORS &INSTITUTIONS

entrepreneurs& risk taking

KNOWLEDGE

diseconomies
Resource mobilisation of scaleresourceinputs

public policy &leverage

shared expectations

learning

cost

entrepreneurs / risktakingperformance

ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS

generation

RESOURCESTECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICSKNOWLEDGE

resource
inputspublic policy &leverage

shared expectations

learning

cost

entrepreneurs / risktakingperformance

ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS

generation

TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICSKNOWLEDGERESOURCES
CLIMATEMITIGATION

shared expectations

FutureNeeds

Analysis &Modelling

Social Rateof Return

Learning
Effects
Roadmaps &Portfolios

Technology
Collaborations
R,D&D(public $)MarketFormation

Diffusion
Supportcost

entrepreneurs / risktakinglearning

performance

ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS

generation

TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICSKNOWLEDGE

public policy &leverage

resource
inputsRESOURCES
keyDirectable(Activities)

NonDirectable(Outputs)

CLIMATEMITIGATIONETIS Inputs vs Outputs (US, Billion US$)
Input: R&D (2008$)
publicprivate

Total

End-use0.5

0.1(?)

0.6

Fossil supply

0.7

1.2

1.9

Non-fossil supply

1.5

0.1

1.6

Other & Supply Infrastructure

1.4

1.2

2.6

Total

4.1

2.6

6.7

End-use as % of Total

12%

4%

9%

Output: Social Rates of Return
28 historical case studies
1978-2000 (1999$)

7 scenario assessments2006-2050 (2005$)

End-useSupplyEnd-useSupply

Costs

0.4

1.1

0.9

1.8

Economic benefits

30.0

10.8

6.5 – 28.5

6.6 – 7.6

3.2 – 21? – 60

n.a.

n.a.

C/B Ratio 1

75

107 – 32

~4

C/B Ratio 2

83 –128

10 – 64

n.a.

n.a.

Env.&security benefits

shared expectations

FutureNeeds

Analysis &Modelling

Social Rateof Return

Learning
Effects
Roadmaps &Portfolios

Technology
Collaborations
R,D&D(public $)MarketFormation

Diffusion
Supportcost

entrepreneurs / risktakinglearning

performance

ACTORS & INSTITUTIONSgeneration

TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICSKNOWLEDGE

public policy &leverage

resource
inputsRESOURCES
keyDirectable(Activities)

NonDirectable(Outputs)

supply : end-use(relative effort)

CLIMATEMITIGATION

Alternative Technology Strategies• Not only new and improved technologies, but
new systemic innovation environment that• Maximizes knowledge generation, preservation andinternational spillovers• Provides aligned and stable incentives• Invests into more diversified, risk tolerant portfolios,
especially more into:
energy end-use and efficiency
more “granular” technology options

Unit Scales of Technology: “granular” vs. “lumpy”
World in 2010

installed capacity

average unit size

numbers in use

GW

MW/unitunits

nuclear PPL

372

850

437

coal PPL

1627

350

4,649

oil PPL

559

150

3,727

gas PPL

1168

100

11,680wind turbines

238

1.5

158,667

solar PV modules

70

0.00012583,333,333

passenger aircraft

1989

100

19,890passenger cars

70780

0.1

707,800,000

electric bicycles (1)360.0003

120,000,000

television sets

146

0.00006

2,425,000,000

CFL lightbulbs

600.000015

4,000,000,000

mobile phones

270.000005

5,400,000,000

PPL = power plants, (1) China only

Source: ALPS-2012 Report