EmergingTrends in RealEstate Europe2023
In the Eye of the StormWelcome and Introductions#ETRE23

Lisette van Doorn
Chief Executive Officer, Europe,Urban Land Institute
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

3

Key Findings#ETRE23

Gareth Lewis
DirectorPwC UK
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm4

In the Eye of the Storm – key themes for 2023
#ETRE23#1 Realism
supersedes
optimism#2 Shifting
concerns

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm#3 Capital pullsback#4 Sectors &cities to watch#5 Fit for
purpose realestate

5Realism supersedes Optimism#ETRE23
Real estate business sentiment, 2011-2023
Business Confidence

Business Profitability

2013

2016

Business headcount

70%
60%

% increase

50%
40%
30%

20%
10%

0%
2011

2012

2014

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
6

Shifting concerns#ETRE23

Concerned in 2023

Inflation

91%

Interest rate movements

89%

European economic growth88%

Global economic growth81%

Currency volatility

49%

Cybersecurity

48%

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

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Shifting concerns#ETRE23

Concerned in 2023

Concerned in the next
3-5 years

Inflation

91%

13%

Interest rate movements

89%

73%

European economic growth

88%

76%

Global economic growth

81%

66%

Currency volatility

49%

39%

Cybersecurity

48%

48%

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

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Impact of a recession in 2023
#ETRE23
The materialisation of a recession in 2022 would lead to a decrease in the…
% think decrease
Development activity

Real estate investment volumes

Availability of financeOccupancy levels of real estate

Existing rental values of real estate

Availability of real estate supply
0%

10%

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%
9

Capital pulls back
#ETRE23
Availability of debt and equity in 2023
% think decrease

Debt for development

Debt for refinancing or new investment

Equity for development

Equity for refinancing or new developments

0%
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%
10Impact on returns#ETRE23

Returns targeted comparedwith the previous year

Lower

Stay the same

Higher2023

39%

31%

30%

2022

27%

36%

38%

2021

46%

29%

25%

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

11

Sectors in transition#ETRE23

New energy
infrastructure
1Life sciences

Data CentresSocial Housing

Retirement/
assisted living

23

4

5

Affordablehousing
6

Self storage
facilities
7

Logistics facilities

Co-living

8

9

Private rented
residential
10

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

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City Rankings 2023: Investment and Development Prospects#ETRE23
1. London

6. Amsterdam

2. Paris

7. Frankfurt

3. Berlin

8. Hamburg

4. Madrid

9. Barcelona

86137

5. Munich2

10. Milan

5104

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

913

Fit for purpose real estate – easy to say, hard to do#ETRE23

From office to…

In the last year

Over the next 3-5 years

Residential

64%

51%

Mixed use

16%

38%

From retail to…

In the last year

Over the next 3-5 years

Mixed use

33%

45%

Residential

26%

22%

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

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The industry evolves#ETRE22
Expected catalysts of change inreal estate over the coming 20 years
The ESG Agenda
Climate Change
Changing customer demands
Technological innovation

Decarbonisation
Real estate as a service
Geopolitics
Digitisation, robotic
War for talent
Deglobalisation&supply chain resilience
Global migration
0%
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%
15

Concluding points#ETRE23#ETRE22
Aligning profits and social objectives

Opportunities in the year ahead

Market logjam

High levels of stress are unlikely

The move towards ‘responsible capitalism’

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

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Thank youPanel Discussion#ETRE23

Simon Martin
Head of Research and Strategy
Tristan Capital Partners
Nathalie Charles
Deputy CEO
BNP Paribas REIM

Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2023 │ In the Eye of the Storm

Jürgen Fenk
CEO
Primonial REIM

Assem El Alami
Head of International Real
Lisette van Doorn
Estate Finance
CEOBerlin Hyp Ag
ULI Europe18

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