Japanese Perspectives to the Nationally
Determined Contributions for Global
Climate Response
Kenji YAMAJI
Director-General, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)ALPS International Symposium, 2015
Assessing effective initiatives to tackle climate change－Towards COP21－2015, February 27, Otemachi Sankei Plaza, Tokyo
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National initiatives for global warming mitigation in the past decade2005：enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol (February) and cabinet decision about the Kyoto
Protocol Target Achievement Plan (April)
May 2007：’Cool Earth 50’ proposal of a GHG emissions reduction by 50% by 2050
Change of government: shift to DPJ
September 2009: Prime Minister Hatoyama declared the 2020 target to be a 25% emissions
reduction compared to 1990 level
June 2010：the Third Strategic Energy Plan stipulates that the 2030 should be 70% zeroemission technologies (50% nuclear, 20% renewable energies)
Fukushima nuclear accident
April 2012：the Environment Plan set the 2050 target to an 80% greenhouse gas emissions
reduction target
Government back to LDP-Komeito Coalition
September 2013：Settlement of the Energy and Environment Technology Innovation Plan
November 2013：Considering the reduction in nuclear power supply, the 2020 target wasrevised to be a 3.8% emissions reduction compared to 2005 level

April 2014： Cabinet Decision for the Fourth Strategic Energy PlanOctober 2014：ICEF (Innovation for Cool Earth Forum) was held in Tokyo2

The Kyoto Protocol goals（First Commitment Period）were overachieved, but…

Rapid increase of greenhouse gas emissions
１．As a result of shutting down nuclear power plants, greenhouse gas emissions from the power
sector rose by 110 MtCO2eq compared to 2010, which represents about 10% of Japan’s yearlyemissions. On the other hand, emissions from the power sector aside, greenhouse gas emissions
in Japan have fallen from 30 MtCO2 compared to 2010.
Evolution of greenhouse gas emissions
FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011

Mt-CO2

Energy-related CO2

１１.４

１０.８

１１.２

１１.７

１２.１

From the power sector

４.０

３.６

３.７

４.４

４.９

From other sectors

７.４

７.２

７.５

７.３

７.２

1412.8Compared to 90 :+1.6%

13
12

5-year average

FY2012＋0.5＋0.7

▲0.2

＋0.8

＋1.1

Emissions＋１．４％
Forest absorption－３．９％
Kyoto measures
－５．９％
Total
－８．４％

▲0.3

12.1Compared to 90 :-4.4% Compared to 90 :-0.4%

Compared to 90 :+6.5%
Compared to 90 :+3.6%

Other Kyoto gases

1110

Energy-related CO2Comparedto FY2010

94
3

Comparedto FY2010

CO2 frompower sector
3National greenhouse gases emissions

Emissions in 2013 were 13.95 MtCO2 :+1.6% compared to the previous year, +1.3% compared to 2006 and +10.8% compared to1990. The reason is mainly the use of coal and high energy consumption in the industry(rejecting other GHG gas such as HFC in addition to CO2)
Emissions(MtCO2)

4

Industry sector (factories, etc.)
MtCO2

Transport sector (cars etc.)

MtCO2

Commercial and other sectors

MtCO2
MtCO2
MtCO2

(Office buildings, etc.)

Residential sector
Energy conversion sector (power plants etc.)
Waste

Industrial processes
Other

MtCO2

MtCO2
MtCO2
MtCO2

Increase or decrease
ratio for 2013
compared to 2005

Evolution of CO2 emissions by sector（after power and heat distribution5

(unitCorrection byKyoto
Mechanisms

Source:Evolution of CO2 emission per power unit（estimates based on data from 10
power companies, purchased power included）
67Deliberation of the Joint Specialists Meeting（Draft jointly elaborated
by the Sub-Committee for post 2020 Climate Change Strategy, Global
Environment Committee, Central Environment Council of the Ministryof Environment, and the Global Environmental Subcommittee,
Committee on Industrial Science and Technology Policy andEnvironment, Industrial Structure Council of the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry）
1st meeting （2014, October 24）：Current global warming mitigation policies,
international negotiations, national energy policy processes

2nd meeting （2014, November 12）：Fifth IPCC Assessment Report；Non energyrelated greenhouse gas mitigation；path towards a low carbon society
3rd meeting（2014, December 5）：Energy Demand Policy；National Movement
4th meeting（2015, January 23）：Energy Supply policy（On the same day was also held the meeting between the Subcommittee on
Global Warming Mitigation from 2020, from the Central Environment Council, andby the Global Environment group of the Industrial Technology Environment
8Subcommittee, from the Industry Structure Council）

Evolution of world energy-related CO2 emissions
China and the United States represent more than 40% of world total GHG emissions.
As for upcoming emissions, the share from emerging countries is expected to grow.

(Prospective)(Historical)
Other
Other

China

Other

China

China

US

BrazilBrazilBrazilJapanJapan
EU27
RussiaRussiaIndia

21 Gton

USUS Japan
India

EU27
India

31.3 Gton

EU28

Russia36.5 Gton
91011Current status of energy consumption in Japan

Since oil crisis, GDP increased to 2.5 times, but energy consumption in industrial sector decreased by about
20 %. Energy consumption in private sector largely increased (2.9 times in commercial sector, 2.0 times inresidential sector)
Energy consumption in industrial sector still accounts for 40% of the whole.

Petroleum equivalent in million tons

Trillion yen, 2005 priceReal GDP
1973→2013
2.5 times

Final energy
consumption
1.3times

Transport sector
Commercial sector

Residential sector

Industrial sector

1.8
times
2.9
times
2.0
times
0.8
times

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13

National movement for measures in residential and other sectors

Business
community

Local
Government

Labor
Side

Innovation that creates
future lifestyle

Promoting diagnosis
for energy saving

Diagnosis for CO2
reduction potential

Massmedia

Promoting reduction activities(Diffusion of Japanese environmental
technologies and knowledge)

Breeding of a healthy sense ofimpending crisis(Dissemination of IPCC AR5)

Government

Realization of low carbon society

Campaign for climate change

Emission reduction in residential and othersectors

National movement

Climate policy suggested by
Ministry of Environment

NPO15

Status of nuclear power in current Strategic Energy Plan
1. An important base-load power source, contributing to stability ofenergy supply-demand structure, on the major premise of ensuring
its safety
2. In case that the conformity of nuclear power plants with the new
regulatory requirements are confirmed, the judgment should berespected and the restart of the nuclear power plants will beproceeded.
3. Dependency on nuclear power generation will be lowered to theextent possible. Under this policy, a volume of electricity to besecured should be examined.
 Development of institutions for decommissioning of reactor
 Maintaining nuclear power under competitive environment
 Cycle back-end problem
 Technology, securing human resources Building relations of trust with the public and local authorities Contribution to peaceful use of nuclear power and non-proliferationworldwide
16Impact of termination for operation of nuclear reactor in 40 years
１．If the operation period is set to be 40 years for all existing nuclear reactors, thecapacity will be halved in 2028, and will become less than 20% of current one in 2036 andwill become zero in 2049.
２．If the operation period is set to be 60 years, the capacity will be halved in 2048, and will
become less than 20% of current one in 2056 and will become zero in 2069.
28.6％

5,000

(Prior condition：all reactors except the ones which are determined to be terminated,
48 reactors)：Ratio of nuclear
power in 2010

4,500
4,000
3,500
In case which the operation period is 60 years

3,000

Half ofpresent level

2,500
2,000
1,500

20% ofpresent level

In case that operation isterminated in 40 years

1,000

2070

2068

2066

2064

2062

2060

2058

2056

2054

2052

2050

2048

2046

2044

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

0

2012

500

2010

Capacity
(kW)

17

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The status of renewable energy in current Strategic Energy Plan (1)Chapter 2. Basic policy regarding measures concerning energy supply and demand
Section 2. Position of each energy source and policy timeframe
1.

Renewable energy

It has various challenges in terms of stable supply and cost at this moment, but it is a promising, multi-characteristic andimportant energy source which can contribute to energy security as it can be domestically produced free of GHGs.

Chapter 3. Long-term measures regarding energy supply and demand in a comprehensive
and systematic manner

Section 3. Accelerating the introduction of renewable energy: Toward achieving grid parity over the midto long-term
・The introduction of renewable energy should be accelerated as much as possible for three years since 2013 has been
followed by continuous active promotion.
・ “ Related Ministers’ Cabinet Meeting on renewable energy ” is established and cooperation among related ministries ispromoted.
・The higher levels of introducing renewable energy than the levels which were indicated based on the former Strategic
Energy Plans are pursued and it is taken into account when energy mix is considered.
・Appropriate management of the feed-in-tariff system and deregulation measures such as reducing the period of theenvironmental assessment will be promoted. Diligent efforts will be made to develop technologies for cost reduction andefficiency improvement, conduct development and demonstration projects for large storage batteries and build power
grids.
１．Strengthening measures to accelerate the introduction of wind and geothermal power[Wind] Acceleration of environmental impact assessment, operation of local transmission and interconnection lines,
development of large storage batteries, technology development to achieve low costs[Geothermal] Lowering risk of investment, acceleration of environmental impact assessment,
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sustainable development

The status of renewable energy in current Strategic Energy Plan (2)Chapter 3. Long-term measures regarding energy supply and demand in a comprehensive
and systematic mannerSection 3. Accelerating the introduction of renewable energy: Toward achieving grid parity
over the mid-to long-term
2. Promotion of use of renewable energy in distributed energy systems[Woody biomass etc.] Stable and efficient supply of unused materials promote generation and use of heatby woody biomass.
[Medium/small hydropower] A registration system has become simpler and easier to apply for river rights,
which expands introduction of medium/small hydropower.
[Solar power] The popularization of photovoltaic generation proceeds in regions such as idle lands, roofs ofschools and factories.

【Renewable heat】 Support will be provided for the introduction of heat supply facilities that use renewableenergy-derived heat.
3. Feed-in-tariff system
・It is important to continue operating the program in a stable and appropriate manner so as to reduce risks
involved in the program.
・The systems for promoting the use of renewable energy sources must be studied on the axis of developing
policy combination which can balance both promotion of maximum use of renewable energy andmitigating people’s burden.
4. Establishing Fukushima as a center of the renewable energy industry
・Demonstration research project regarding a large floating offshore wind power generation, et.

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FiT for renewable energies (except large-scale hydropower) From July 2012 to March 2013, 895.4 万kW were installed and 6 864万kW approved for installation
 Currently, the main issue is to provide detailed information about the planned installation in order to get thecertification

March 2014: installed and planned installation of renewable energies capacities
Forecastedcapacity

Capacity installation（now in operation）
Types ofrenewableenergies
Solar PV（residential）
Solar PV（non-Before FiT
introduction
Until June 2012

After FiT
introduction

After FiT introduction
July 2012 – March2013

From April 2013

From July 2012 toMarch 2014

4,7 GW

969 MW

1,3 GW

2,68 GW

0,9 GW

704 MW

5,73 MW

63 GW

Wind power

2,6 GW

63 MW

47 MW

10,4 GW

Small & medium
hydro

9,6 GW

2 MW

4 MW

298 MWBiomass

2,3 GW

30 MW

92 MW

15,6 GW

Geothermy

0,5 GW

1 MW0 MW

14 MW

1,78GW

7,8 GW

residential）

Total

68,6 MW

20,6 GW

8,9 GW （６１９,７０１件）（１,１９９,４８２件）

2020

Latest data on January 15, 2015

September 2014: installed and planned installation of renewable energies capacities

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Comparison of the installed capacity level and certification status
in the Strategic Energy Plan The tables below show the level of installed capacity by renewable source and delivered certification
since the launching of the Strategic Energy Plan Regarding the projects that did not get the certification or were abandoned , it is mostly likely that they
could not proceed with the installation due to interconnections issues.

Solar
Wind
Geothermy
Hydropower
Biomass

Total

Solar
Wind
Geothermy
Hydropower
Biomass
Total

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Policy positioning for Feed-in-tariff system (FIT)－Purchase at a price which is higher than a value of electricity
generated and promote investment－Drastic medicine: High impact on promotion, but high adverse
effects－Consumers bear the thin burden as levy.
(There are no large opposition forces.)－Control of the quantity of introduction does not work
－If it is purchased at the equal price irrespective of the type of
renewable energy, it theoretically equals to RPS.
（It is the same relationship between carbon price (equivalent to FIT) andemission trading scheme (equivalent to RPS).)23

Challenges for promoting a diffusion of renewable energy
・Large-scale introduction and electric power system stabilization－Maintenance and wide area use of transmission and distribution networks－Output adjustment by heat and the dam-style hydro power→Securing of capacity－Purchase after the electric power system reform→ Retail business?, Powertransmission and distribution business?, Whole sale market?
－Utilization of battery and demand response→ Smart grid
－Output restraint of the naturally fluctuating electric power supply

・ Easing of regulations－Acceleration of the Environmental Impact Assessment－Relaxation of the land use limitation－Standards for facilities and security, disclosure of the electric power system
information

・Adequacy of the nation burden－Upper limitation of the annual/accumulated introduction quantity of thenaturally fluctuating electric power supply－Upper limitation of the annual nation burden, etc.

・Promotion of effective diffusion－Portfolio for renewable energy－Autonomous diffusion under competitive environment, incentives forinnovation,・・・

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Thank you for your attention.

公益財団法人 地球環境産業技術研究機構
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth26