LOW CARBON SOCIETY SCENARIOSVIETNAM 2030
“Consider low carbon economy and green growth as principles in achieving sustainable development; Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission reduction to become a mandatory index in social and economic development” is one of the main objectives of the “National Climate
Change Strategy” which was approved by the Government of Vietnam in December 2011. In addition, a concrete target to reduce GHG
emission by 30% in the Energy sector in 2030 compared to business as usual were set in the “Vietnam Green Growth Strategy ”- Decision
No. 1393/QD-TTg (9/25/2012) . In order to contribute implementing these policies and envision a sustainable low carbon society with along-term perspective as well as introduce the measures to realize it, we developed “Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios Vietnam 2030”.
This research has being conducted in a collaboration between the Ins tute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment(ISPONRE) from Vietnam, and Kyoto University (KU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), E-Konzal, and Mizuho Information and Research Institute (MHIR) from Japan.
Table Projection of GHG emissions and their reduction in 2030
2005

2030BaU

2030CM

Reduc onra o* (thisstudy)Na onal target in 2030
(The Vietnam Green
Growth StrategyDecision 1393/QD-TTg)

Reduce GHG emission
intensity by 1-2%/year
30%-

Popula on

1000 pers.

82,392

109,250

109,250

GDP

Bill.US$

53

256

256

GHG emission

MtCO2eq

173.8

686.5

429.7

37%

81.0
69.8
23.0

521.9
78.8
85.8

342.4
37.1
50.2

30%
53%
42%

Energy
AFOLU
Waste(*) Reduction ratio = (2030BaU-2030CM)/2030BaU
The above table shows projected GHG emissions by emission sectors: energy demand sectors, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use(AFOLU) and waste sector. In 2030BaU (Business as Usual) scenario, total GHG emission increased up to 686.5 MtCO2eq, about 4 times
increase from 2005. In 2030CM (CounterMeasure) scenario, emission is reduced by 37% from 2030BaU, reached a number of 429.7
MtCO2eq. The official target of 30% reduction of GHG intensity in the energy sector in 2030 is achieved in 2030CM scenario. The resultsof the modelling also show the GHG emission reduction in AFOLU and waste sectors are 53% and 42%, respectively.
Ins tute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), Vietnam
Kyoto University (KU), Japan
Na onal Ins tute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
Ins tute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan
Asia-Paciﬁc Integrated Modelling team (AIM)MIZUHO Informa on and Research Ins tute (MHIR), Japan
E-KONZAL, Japan

Methodology
In order to iden fy the necessary ac ons, an “integrated
modeling” based on “back-cas ng” approach is used.
The back-cas ng approach sets a vision of the future society
as a goal, and then seeks a pathway towards achieving that
goal. We used ExSS (Extended Snapshot tool) for socioeconomic indicators, energy and waste sectors, AFOLUA(AFOLU Activity model), and AFOLUB (AFOLU bottom-up
model) for AFOLU sectors. Combining both of the resultsfrom ExSS and AFOLU models, emissions and reduction
amounts are analyzed.
Informa on collec on is the ﬁrst step in the modeling work.
Socio-economic informa on as well as environmental informa on for the base year (2005) was collected and analyzed
in order to es mate current carbon emissions.
Besides this, feasible low carbon measures for Vietnam LCS
2030 were also collected. For the future projec on, informa on is based on planned developments, as the modeles mates socio-economic ac vity levels including populaon, number of households, land area, transport demandand other variables. Based on the collected informa on,

GHG emissions are calculated with or without countermeasures. Finally, they are aggregated to Ac ons.

Figure 8. Methodology of the study

TEAM INFORMATIONACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS

Kyoto University, Japan (KU)
Nguyen Thai Hoa
Yuzuru Matsuoka

ACC
AIM
AFOLU
BaU
CM
GHG
EE
ExSS
FAO
GDP
IGES
ISPONRE

Na onal Ins tute for Environmental Studies,Japan (NIES)Kei Gomi
Junichi Fujino
Toshihiko Masui
Ins tute for Global Environmental Strategies,
Japan (IGES)
Shuzo Nishioka
Tomoko Ishikawa
MIZUHO Informa on and Research Ins tute,Japan (MHIR)
Go Hibino
Kazuya Fujiwara
E-KONZAL
Tomoki Ehara
Yuki Ochi
Ins tute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam (ISPONRE)
Nguyen Hoang Minh
Nguyen Tung Lam
Nguyen Van Tai

KU
LCS
MARD
MHIR
NIES
SYB
UNFCCC

Allowable Addi onal Costs
Asia-Paciﬁc Integrated Model
Agriculture, Forestry and other Land use
Business as Usual
Countermeasure
Greenhouse Gases
Energy Eﬃciency
Extended Snapshot Tool
Food and Agriculture Organiza on
Gross Domes c ProductIns tute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan
Ins tute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources
and Environment, Vietnam
Kyoto University
Low Carbon Society
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
MIZUHO Informa on and Research Ins tute, Japan
Na onal Ins tute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Sta s cal Yearbook
United Na ons Framework Conven on on Climate
ChangeCONTACT INFORMATION:
Nguyen Thai Hoa, PhD: Program-speciﬁc Researcher in Kyoto University
Email: envi.jp@gmail.com
Nguyen Tung Lam, PhD: Director of Center for Informa on, Consultancy
and Training, ISPONRE
Email: ntlam@isponre.gov.vn
August, 2014

Waste Scenario
Projection of GHG emissions and reductions

Assumptions of solid waste management

In 2030BaU scenario, GHG emissions increase more than 2.1
times in 2020, 4.1 times in 2030 and 8.8 times in 2050 compared to 2005. GHG emission from the industrial sector continues to increase due to rapid industrial expansion andcontributes the largest emission which accounting for 67% in
2030, and 75% in 2050 of total emission. On the other hand,the emission from the municipal sector increases gradually
due to slight increase in population in Vietnam in the future.
In 2030CM scenario, total GHG emission is reduced by 26%(2020), 42% (2030) and 57% (2050) from BaU scenario(Figure 6).
Recycling shows the largest contribution, followed by CH4
recovery. Vietnamese government expects almost all of thewaste generation in future will be recovered, and reused
before dumping to landfill or going to other processes(Figure 7).

Assumptions of solid waste management are based on thetargets in “National Strategy for Integrated Management of
Solid Waste up to 2025 and vision towards 2050” approved by
Decision 2149/QD-TTg (12/17/2009). For instance, by 2025,
100% of the total solid waste generated from households inurban area will be collected and treated with environmentallyfriendly manners, of which 90% will be recycled, used for energy recovery, or utilized for production of organic fertilizer.
90% of the construction solid waste will be collected, of which
60% will be reused or recycled. 100% of the total generated
non-hazardous and hazardous industrial waste will be collected and treated with environmentally friendly manners.
As for wastewater, 30% of municipal wastewater is discharged
and remaining 70% is treated. As for industrial wastewater,
5% is discharged and 95% is treated.
At present, there is no targets in collecting CH4 from landfill
and waste water. In 2030CM scenario, 25% is assumed in theyear of 2030 to be collected from landfill and fromwastewater.

Waste generation
Solid waste generation in 2005 was 15.6Mt from rural, village
craft, hazardous and sludge. Solid waste generation is expected to increase more than 2.8 times in 2020, 5.5 times in
2030 and 9.9 times in 2050 compared to 2005. In 2030BAU
scenario, about 90% of total solid is dumped to disposal sites,
where no regulations or standards have been established tocontrol CH4 in the landfill gas released by the decay of solid
waste in these disposal sites. In 2030CM scenario, with introduction of countermeasures through activities of composting,recycling and incineration, the amount of solid waste whichgoes to disposal site is expected to reduce significantly.
Wastewater from both domestic and industrial sector is expected to increase dramatically from about 1.9 trillion ton in2005 to 3.1, 5.7 and 10.6 trillion ton in 2020, 2030 and 2050
respectively. The industry intensive cities and provinces in theSouthern of Vietnam and Red River Delta regions generate themajor part of the country’s industrial wastewater. (Figure 5)

Figure 5. Waste genera on by sector in Vietnam

57%

42%
26%
4

Figure 6. GHG emissions from waste genera on in Vietnam

Figure 7. Contribu on of low carbon measures in
Waste sector

Execu ve Summary
This study aims to investigate future socio-economic scenarios and GHG mitigation potentials by low carbon
measures based on integrated modeling and back-casting
approach. The target year is 2030. Two scenarios were set:
2030BaU(Businessas
Usual)
and2030CM(CounterMeasures). The 2030BaU scenario, where additional countermeasures for GHG emission reduction are notintroduced, reflects the situation, in which the levels ofcommitments to climate-friendly-energy production andtechnological breakthroughs are relatively low. Specifically,
countermeasures are assumed the same level as in 2005.
On the other hand, the 2030CM scenario, in which additional low carbon countermeasures are introduced in order toassess the reduction effects of GHG emission.
The socio-economic assumptions about population, industrial structure and economic growth are common to bothscenarios.

Socio-economic assumptions in 2030
With an annual growth rate of 0.9%, population in 2030
increased 1.3 times compared to 2005, whereas increasingof household number is slightly larger because of reductionof household size. With an annual growth rate of 6.5%, GDP
increases almost 5 times in 2030 compared to 2005. In
which, secondary and tertiary sectors contribution to GDP
increase much higher than the one contributed by primarysector. Passenger and freight transport increase 2.4 and 6.1
times in 2030 compared to 2005, respectively. Freighttransport will increase faster than passenger transport because of rapid development of industry sector.

A dozen Actions towards low carbon 2030 in
VietnamBased on the quantitative results with the models, a dozen
actions has been identified. As for the contribution to emission reductions, energy efficient technology (Action E4) is
the most important in long term while forest and land use
management (Action A5) is another indispensable option.
Renewable energy in Smart power plant (Action E6) andSmart 3R (Reuse, Reduce, Recycle) (Action W) also have asignificant contribution.
Action A1. Livestock Manure Management. Low carbon
countermeasures in this action are such as “dairy spread ofmanure” and “dome digester, for cooking fuel and electricity generation”.
Action A2. Livestock Enteric Fermentation. Comprising of
two main countermeasures; namely, “high genetic merit”
and “replacement of roughage with concentrates”.
Action A3. Rice Cultivation Management. CH4 emitted
from rice fields is reduced through modified water management technologies, such as “midseason drainage” and“alternate wetting and drying”.
Action A4. Soil Management. This action comprises of two
main countermeasures; namely, “high efficiency fertilizer
application” and “slow-release fertilizer”.
Action A5. Forest and Land Use Management. This action
has the biggest contribution, accounting for 50% of GHG
emission reduction in AFOLU sector.
Action E1. Green Building. Buildings with intelligent structures for utilization of natural energy resources such as“photovoltaic energy”. Number of households which utilize
solar and wind energy in daily life is enlarged.

Action E2. Convenient Transport. Using public transportation and bicycle will increase the level of convenience intravel, and it leads to decline in usage of automobiles andresults in a safe and comfortable transportation environment. Instead of freight transportation by trucks, convenientand comfortable systematic transportation by train and by
ship is increasingly used. Promoting the use of biofuel in
automobile also brings a benefit in cutting down CO2 emission.
Action E3. Energy Saving Behavior. Energy saving activities
focus on energy services such as cooling, heating, hot water,
cooking in commercial and residential sectors, direct heating, steam and motor in the industrial sector.
Action E4. Energy Efficiency Improvement. This action includes not only enhancing Energy Efficiency (EE) of devices
in all sectors, but also to strengthen state management of
EE by establishing a management systems for energy saving
and rizing public awareness to promote EE.
Action E5. Fuel Shift in Industry. The action aims to switchfrom coal to natural gas and other renewable energies.
Some amount of financial commitments would be required
not only in technology but also in associated infrastructure.
Action E6. Smart Power Plants. A Smart Power Plant is not
only environmental friendly, but also important for sufficientand continuous supply of energy required for the social andeconomic development of the whole country. Leverages toachieve it are the benefit of energy efficiency, utilizing nuclear energy and renewable energy.
Action W. Smart 3R. Recycling shows the largest contribution, followed by CH4 recovery. Vietnamese government
expects almost all of the waste generation in future will berecovered and will be reused before dumping to landfill or
going to other processes.

Table 1. A dozen ac ons towards low carbon 2030 in Vi-

Dozen Actions
towards LCS in Vietnam in 2030

GHG
mitigations(MtCO2eq)

AFOLU sectors

41.7

Action A1 Livestock Manure Management

2.8

Action A2 Livestock Enteric Fermentation

3.3

Action A3 Rice Cultivation Management

11.9

Action A4 Soil Management

2.9

Action A5 Forest and Land Use Management

20.9

Energy sectors

179.5

Action E1 Green Building

14.4

Action E2 Convenient Transport

15.0

Action E3 Energy Saving Behavior

16.9

Action E4 Energy Efficiency Improvement

78.8

Action E5 Fuel Shift in Industry

15.7

Action E6 Smart Power Plants

38.7

Waste sector

35.6

Action W Smart 3R

35.6

Total

256.9

Energy Scenario
CO2 emissions and reductions
GHG emission in the energy sector increase 6.4 times and4.2 times in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenario respectively
from that in 2005 level, as a result of increasing use of fossil
fuels. The total emission in 2005 is about 81.0 MtCO2eq.
This figure is expected to increase to 521.9 and 342.5
MtCO2eq by 2030 in BaU and CM scenarios, respectively.
The major contributors to GHG emission include industrial
sector (49% of total GHG emissions in 2030BaU scenario),
followed by transport and residential sectors which account for 21% and 22% of total GHG emissions in the
2030BaU scenario, respectively. (Table 2).
In energy sectors, among the countermeasures, energy
efficiency improvement and fuel shift in the power sectors
account for the largest proportion of the reduction (38.7
MtCO2), followed by efficient vehicles in the freighttransport sector (23.9 MtCO2), and energy efficiency improvement in industry (23.5 MtCO2).

transport sectors are expected to increase in future, while
the share of residential sector decreases. This is becauseof continued trends of industrialization and increasing
travel demand by private cars. It can be said that the energy consumption of industrial and transport sectors should
be highlighted in Vietnam’s energy sector in future.
Compared to the other sectors, the share of final energy
consumption of commercial sector will keep small number
which accounts for only 6% in 2030BaU scenario and 7%
in 2030CM scenario.

Final energy demand
The total final energy requirement of residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors is expected to increase
annually at 5.1% (2030BaU) and 4.0% (2030CM) over theoutlook period, from 44.5 million tonnes equivalent (Mtoe)
in 2005 to 153.8 Mtoe in 2030BaU scenario and 117.9
Mtoe in 2030CM scenario. The projected final energy demand growth in 2030BaU scenario is higher than the past
decade of 4.4% per year between 1995 and 2005.
Regarding the target of being an industrialized country,
energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to increase dramatically and to be the largest consumer of final
energy – almost 41% and 45% in 2030BaU and 2030CM
scenarios, respectively.
The share of energy demand by residential sector is projected to be reduced substantially from 59% in 2005 to 30%
in 2030BaU scenario and to 32% in 2030CM scenario, as aresult of a reduction of the traditional biomass fuels forcooking. It is followed by transport sector, accounting for
23% and 16% in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios, respectively.
The finding shows that the energy shares of industrial and

MtCO2eq
Figure 2. Contribu on of low carbon measures in energy sector

Table 2. GHG emission in energy sector
Sector

2005

2030BaU 2030CM

2030BaU 2030CM 2030CM//2005/2005 2030BaU

Residen al

14.8

110.2

68.2

7.4

4.6

0.6

4.5

0.7

Commercial

6.2

41.3

27.9

6.7

38.8
Passenger transport 10.0

256.5

185.4

6.6

4.8

0.7

46.5

23.1

4.7

2.3

0.5

Freight transport

67.3

37.8

6.0

3.4

0.6

342.4

6.4

4.2

0.7

Industry

Total

Figure 1. Final energy demand

MtCO2eq

11.3
81.0

521.9

Agriculture, Forestry andOther Land Use (AFOLU) Scenario
We used AFOLUA to describe the AFOLU ac vity scenarios.
“Ac vity” here means a level of produc on of agriculturecommodi es, area of land use and land use change. To consider the country speciﬁc situa on, some part of the necessary informa on was derived from the interna onal informa on sources, such as FAO (2012), and supplemented
with the reports from domes c ins tu ons, such as General
Sta s c Oﬃce (SYB) Vietnam, the Second Vietnam Na onal
Communica on to UNFCCC, the draS report of Vietnam
Inventory in 2005, and other reports from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD). Future trends in
ac vity levels were assumed based on governmental plansprospec ve. If they are not available, future scenarios are
es mated based on the extrapola on of the historical
trend. Assump ons in 2030BaU Scenarios are shown in
Table 3.

2030BaU Emissions
Total GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors in 2030 are expected
to reach 78.8 MtCO2eq (Figure 3).
In the agricultural sector, CH4 is the largest GHG emission,
followed by N2O. The major sources are rice cul va on(CH4), livestock (CH4 and N2O) and managed soil (N2O). GHG
emissions in the agricultural sector in 2000 were 62.4
MtCO2eq, and gradually increased to 64.8 and 71.7
MtCO2eq in 2005 and 2010, respec vely. ASer that, theemission is keeping to increase gradually to 84.5 MtCO2eq
in 2030.
For LULUCF sector, the main source/sink of GHG is fromforest and grassland conversion, which is followed by emis-

sion and removal from/to soils. Total GHG emissions fromforestry and land use change were es mated to have declined gradually from 5.0 MtCO2eq in 2005 to 2.9 MtCO2eq
in 2010, respec vely. ASer 2015, LULUCF is expected to be a
net sequestra on of CO2, with amounts of –2.7 and –5.7
MtCO2eq, respec vely in 2020 and 2030.

Mi ga on in AFOLU sectors
In the AFOLU sectors, we projected GHG reduc on amountby countermeasures under a wide range of Allowable Addional Costs (AAC) for GHG emission mi ga on.
The result shows the reduc on in 2030 is 10.8 MtCO2eq
under AAC of 0 US$/tCO2eq. It will increase to 42.7
MtCO2eq under AAC of 10 US$/tCO2eq and 44.5 and 48.4
MtCO2eq under 100 and for any cost of AAC. Based on our
ﬁndings, a package of mi ga on countermeasures at 10
USD/tCO2eq is expected to have some economic eﬃciencies and high mi ga ons for GHG emission in the AFOLU
sector in Vietnam. In which, emission reduc on related torice cul va on is the signiﬁcant contribu on (11.9
MtCO2eq/year) while those in forest and land use management are the greatest contribution (Figure 4).

Table 3. AFOLU sector assump ons in 2030
Assump on in 2030
Source of assump on
Popula on is increasing
gradually, density is
assumed to increaseabout 1.1 mes in 2030
Popula oncompared to 2005
GSO (2011)
density
2005: 40859 person perha2030: 45000 person perha
Demand on rice conFood security’s objec ves
sump on of Vietnamese in Vietnam. HP: <hUp://in 2030 is same as cur- cholurent me.
athembong.uniad.com.vn
Per capita
Rice and wheat: the/ n-nong-nghiep/37- nfood demandsame as 2005
nong-nghiep/112-kichOther commodi es:
ban-nao-cho-an-ninhincrease by 0.5% perluong-thuc-quocyear
gia.html>
Food import
Same with 2005
This study
rate
MARD (2011) aUached
Projected values by
Yield
with Decision 124/QDMARD
TTg/2012
Land useconversion
matrixSame conversion
paUern as the matrix
from 2001 to 2005

Figure 3. GHG emissions in AFOLU sector in 2030

Vietnam Inventory reportin 2005 (draS version)

Figure 4. GHG mi ga on poten al in AFOLU sector in 2030