March, 2018

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVELCS SCENARIO OF PHONM PENH

In 2013, the Royal Government of Cambodia developed “NationalPolicy on Green Development and National Strategic Plan on GreenDevelopment 2013-2030” and “Cambodia Climate Change Strategic Plan
2014-2023 (CCCSP)”. CCCSP is the first comprehensive national plan
regarding climate change. Cambodia intends to reduce its carbon emission and vulnerability to impact of climate change, and then aims forsustainable economic growth based on these plans. Moreover, the government submitted its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution(INDC)” to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Secretariat in 2015. A target which aims to reduce GHG emission by 27 % compared with Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario by 2030 is
set in INDC of Cambodia.

Future status such as socioeconomic indicators, energy demand andcarbon emission were estimated based on collected data and assumed
parameters.

Phnom Penh has also started to tackle climate change issue. Phnom
Penh prepared “Action Plan for the Climate Change Strategy in Phnom
Penh Capital City” through collaboration between Kitakyushu City inJapan. Tasks and policies for reducing carbon emission in various fields
are considered in the plan. However, GHG emission and reduction are
not analyzed sufficiently. It is significant to make a quantified scenario forthe city to reduce carbon emission steadily and substantially. Therefore,
this study was conducted to develop a low-carbon society (LCS) scenario
of Phnom Penh by estimating GHG emission and assessing carbon reduction effect by LCS projects.

FRAMEWORK OF RESEARCHThis study focuses on energy-related CO2 emission from industry,
commercial, residential and transport sectors. The base year for estimation is 2014 and the target year for CO2 reduction is 2030. The base year
was decided based on data availability. The target year was set
in accordance with INDC of Cambodia. Then we prepared two scenarios,
namely BaU scenario and Countermeasure (CM) scenario to analyze
carbon reduction potential in future. In BaU scenario, it is assumed that
there is no policy or technology intervention to reduce carbon emission,
while implementation of projects for reducing CO2 emission is assumedin CM scenario.

Macro Economy
Population and GDP continues to grow by 2030 in Phnom Penh.
Population will amount to about 2.5 million in 2030. GDP per capita will
increase by 2.2 times compared with 2014. Then GDP in 2030 will become 3 time as large as that in 2014. Secondary and tertiary sector willgrow remarkably and tertiary sector will still be main industry. Transportdemand of both passengers and freights will also increase.
Table 1. Main socioeconomic indicators in Phnom Penh

Population
No. of households
GDP per capita
GDPPrimary
SecondaryTertiary
Outputs
Final consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
ExportImportpersonshouseholds
mil. Riels
bil. Riels

1,770,131
368,777
15
26,576130
9,816
16,631
63,884
7,100
8,814
23,59816,005bil. Riels
bil. Riels
bil. Riels
bil. Riels
bil. Riels

2014

2030

2030
/2014

2,450,717
583,504
33
81,879143
30,70651,029199,117
20,961
26,022
69,66644,245

1.38
1.58
2.23
3.08
1.10
3.13
3.07
3.12
2.95
2.95
2.95
2.76

BaU

CM

BaU
/2014

Passenger transport demand mil. pass-km

7,140 12,652 13,964

1.77

Freight transport demand

1,538

3.17

mil. ton-km

4,869

4,86990
80

Variety of data and information of Phnom Penh and Cambodia werecollected to prepare input data for estimation of future socioeconomicindicators, energy consumption and CO2 emission.

60
GDP (tril. Riels)

70

Regarding economic growth and energy mix in future, we set parameters for estimation based on previous researches like “Background
Report on a Design of Low Carbon Development Action in Cambodia
towards 2050: Energy Policy ” (Ministry of Environment of Cambodia,
Kyoto University, et al., 2015).

2014

Unit

DATA COLLECTION

Because there are few available economic data of Phnom Penh suchas current GDP and industrial output, we estimated them based on Cambodia National Accounts and Economic Census of Cambodia bydownscaling. Energy consumption in Phnom Penh in 2014 was also
estimated by downscaling of Cambodia National Energy Statistics.

Unit

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
MiningFood, beverage and tobacco
Non-metallic mineral
TextileOther manufacturing
Construction
TradeTransport and communication
Finance, real estate and business
Other services

504030201002014

2030
Figure 1. GDP by economic activity

LCS SCENARIO OF PHNOM PENH
Energy Consumption

Projects to Achieve Low Carbon Society

3,907

4,000

3,370

3,500

Final energy consumption (ktoe)

Final energy consumption (ktoe)

Energy demand will increase in proportion as population and economic growth. Energy consumption in BaU scenario will increase by 5times as much as 2014. On the other hand, in CM scenario, energy consumption can be reduced by 14% from BaU scenario. Use of natural gas
and solar heat are expanded in CM scenario.

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
788

1,000
500
0

3,907

4,000

3,370

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,0001,500788

1,0005000

2014 2030BaU 2030CM
CoalOilGas
Solar
BiomassElectricity

2014 2030BaU 2030CM
Industry
Industry
Commercial
Commercial
Residential
Residential
Passenger
Passenger
transport
transport
FreightFreighttransport
transport

Figure 2. Final energy consumption by sector/fuel type

CO2 Emission and Reduction
CO2 emission in BaU scenario will amount to 4.7 times as much as2014, where as, in CM scenario, CO2 emission can be reduced by 29%
compared with BaU scenario. The commercial sector and the passenger
transport sector will lead emission reduction.
Table 2. CO2 emission by sectorCO2 emission (ktCO2eq)
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Passenger transport
Freight transport
CO2 emission per GDP(tCO2eq/bil.Riels)
CO2 emission per capita(tCO2eq/person)

2014

2030
BaU

2030
CM

1,964
491
382
280
509
303

9,260
3,828
2,600
902
971
959

6,558
2,971
1,538
749
579
721

4.72
7.80
6.81
3.22
1.91
3.17

0.71
0.78
0.59
0.83
0.60
0.75

73.9

113.1

80.1

1.53

0.71

1.1

3.8

2.7

3.41

0.71

2030CM

BaU/2014

CM/BaU

9,260

2014

1,964
0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000CO2 emission (ktCO2eq)
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Figure 3. CO2 emission in each scenario

EconomyExport by goods
IOanalysis

Import rate
Input coefficient matrix

Private consumption
Floor area per output

Yuki OCHI
Togo UCHIDA
Junichi FUJINO

E-Konzal Co. Ltd.
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) /National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES)
Kazuya FUJIWARA Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc. (MHIR)

56.5
13.1
11.8
0.6
47.9
0.6
37.7
48.6
14.2
13.1
6.6
0.9422.2
151.2
129.8
15.1
103.4
6.1
16.6
650.3
13.9
26.9
94.8
48.0
0.2
110.7
56.3
81.6
218.0
919.3
2,728.7

Demography
Household size

Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturingindustry

Commercial
building floorarea

FreighttransportdemandNumber ofhouseholdPassenger
transport
demandModal share
Freight generation
per output
Transport distance

Fuel share

Energy service demand

Transport

Energy efficiency
Final energy demand

Energy end-use device
energy efficiency

Energy demand
to DPG

Dispersed power
generation (DPG)
Energy efficiency inDPG

Exogenous variables
Parameters

Trip per person
Trip distanceCentral powergeneration (CPG)
Energy demand to CPG

Primary energy supply

EnergyJunichi FUJINO: jfuji55@gmail.com

This research is supported by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

11.5
251.7

Population

Output byindustry

Energy service demand
per driving force

Energy end-use device
share

MEMBERSACKNOLEADGEMENT

CO2 reduction(ktCO2eq)
485.1
199.0
9.1
84.2
181.3

Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS), developed by AIM team, was used
to estimate future CO2 emission. It has been used in a lot of nations andregions. The model is specialized for quantifying LCS scenario. It is effective to quantify the future vision for discussion with stakeholders. Quantification also makes it clear that how we can achieve GHG reduction
target. The model describes current and future status such as socioeconomic activity (population, Economy, Transport), energy consumption,power generation, and GHG emission and reduction.

Government
expenditure

A preliminary research of LCS scenario for Phnom Penh has beenmade. It is indicated that the city has a potential to reduce CO 2 emissioncorresponding to INDC of Cambodia. Although the estimation includes alot of assumption due to lack of data and information, this research canbe used as a basis for discussion. We hope it will help sustainable development and transition to low carbon society in Phnom Penh.

Yuki OCHI: ochi.ekonzal@gmail.com

SectorAction 1: Green Production
1-01 Energy saving support scheme for industries
Industry
1-02 Installation high energy efficiency facilities
Industry
1-03 Regional energy supply system
Industry
1-04 Improvement of kiln and furnace technology
Industry
Promotion of fuel shift of furnaces and boilers
1-05
Industry
from coal to natural gas
Action 2: Sustainable Building and Infrastructure
Installation of insulated glasses to commercial
2-01
Commercial
buildings
2-02 Installation of insulated glasses to households
Residential
2-03 Introduction of incentive to low energy buildings Commercial
2-04 Introduction of insulating material to houses
Residential
2-05 Energy efficiency technology applied to buildings Commercial
2-06 Shift to natural gas in buildings
Commercial
2-07 Shift to natural gas in households
Residential
Introduction of solar water heater to commercial
2-08
Commercial
buildings2-09 Introduction of solar water heater to households Residential
Introduction of photovoltaic power generation
2-10
Commercial
to commercial buildings
Introduction of photovoltaic power generation
2-11
Residential
to households
Introduction of small-scale hydropower genera2-12
Commercial
tion
Action 3: Energy Efficient Houses and Offices
Energy saving support scheme for commercial
3-01
Commercial
buildings
3-02 High efficiency lighting in commercial buildings Commercial
3-03 High efficiency lighting in households
Residential
High efficiency air conditioners in commercial
3-04
Commercialbuildings
3-05 High efficiency air conditioners in households
Residential
3-06 Promotion of energy-efficient appliances
Residential
Action 4: Clean and Efficient Transport
4-01 Promotion of eco-driving
Transport
4-02 Wide-range traffic control
Transport
4-03 Expansion of bus transportation
Transport
4-04 Development of public transportation like MRT Transport
4-05 Shift to EV bus
Transport
4-06 Introduction of electric motorbikes
Transport
4-07 Promotion of energy-efficient passenger car
Transport
4-08 Promotion of energy-efficient motorbikes
Transport
4-09 Promotion of energy-efficient trucks
Transport
Improvement of CO2 emission factor of electricityTotal

Investment

CONCLUSIONCONTACTProject

METHODOLOGY

6,558

2030BaU

Table 3. Reduction of carbon emission by action/project

Modal share

Energy efficiency inCPG
Fuel share in CPG
Transmission loss inCPG
Own use in CPG

CO2 emission factor
Carbon sink

Endogenous
variables

CO2 emission

Figure 4. Structure of ExSS