Japan Scenarios and Actions towards
Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

2050 CO2 Emission

Included inothers

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

4

Industry

●

24

42

●

13

13

●

●

●

●

14

38

●

●

●

●

16

9

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

5

28

●

●

●

●

●

23

17

●

●

●

●

77

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

+)

24

65

34

40

16

230

24

63

35
5
23

Transportation

62
Energysupplysector

40

40

230

* Unit of number in the table is MtC.

June 2008

June 2008“2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario teamNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES),
Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University,and Mizuho Information and Research Institute

82

34

+)

● : Sector in which actions contribute reduction directly: Sector in which actions contribute reduction indirectly.
□ : Sector in which reduction by actions is included under "Change of activity"

21

13
14

Residential &commercial

35

7

21
4

40

Improvement of
Improvement ofenergy intensity
carbon intensity
Energy demand sector●□

Changeof activity

Energy supply
sector●21

Reductionof demand<Scenario B>●

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

95 - 812050 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand
Energy demand sector
Improvement ofenergy intensity

70% reduction

Energy supply sector
Improvement of
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
carbon intensity

2000 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

12
Low Carbon Society Leadership1990 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

11Labeling to Encourage Smart andrational Choices

Energy36 supply
sectorCCS
77

10
Next Generation Fuels

52

77

9
Local Renewable Resources for Local
Demand41

Transportation

Low-Carbon Electricity

17

□

8

44 - 45

30 - 35 (+ α)●7Pedestrian Friendly City Design28

Swift and Smooth Logistics

60

6

Environmentally Enlightened Businessand Industry

Residential &commercial

5

●

10

38

4
Sustainable Building Materials

Change 66
1 of activity
24
1
10 Industry
35
13
24

9
7

36

Promoting Seasonal Local Food

90

3

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate
Appliances6256 - 48<Scenario A>

21

1
Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

Global Environmental Research Fund (GERF/S-3-1)
Japan-UK Joint Research Project “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society (LCS)”Preface
On 9th June 2008, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda released his new vision “Towards aJapan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)”. The vision consists of following components; 1) transition froma fossil fuel dependent industrialized society to a LCS for a sustainable future, 2) stepping forwardwith great confidence as transition to LCS will bring opportunity for new businesses and Japan’s
traditional wisdom provided notion to live in harmony with nature such as “Mottainai”, 3) setting up
a long-term goal to reduce 60-80% CO2 emissions by 2050 from current level based on the former
Prime Minister Abe’s proposal, invitation to “Cool Earth 50” which had 50% Greenhouse Gas(GHG) emission reduction target by 2050, 4) peaking out emission level by next 10-20 years toachieve long-term goal, 5) implementing following four actions ;i) development of innovativetechnology and diffusion of existing technologies, ii) set up institutions such as emission trading, tax
reform to change social and economic structure into a LCS, iii) measures from local governments
such as producing locally and consuming locally, and iv) behavioral change. He put forward thisvision as “Low-Carbon Society” revolution and anticipated that it will make Japanese economy
more strong and resilient.
Japan Low-Carbon Society project has started its research activity since April 2004 witharound 60 researchers (http://2050.nies.go.jp). The project consists of five teams; scenario team,
long-term goal setting team, urban structure team, Information and Communication Technology(ICT) team, and transportation team. Each team carries out researches coordinated by project leader
with the support from scenario team. It also coordinated “The Japan–UK Joint Research Project on a
Sustainable Low-Carbon Society (LCS)” with participation of experts from 20 countries anddelivered “Call for Action” of the three LCS workshops and “Executive Summary” of the 3rd LCS
workshop to Gleneagles dialogue (G20) in Chiba, during 14-16 March 2008 and G8 Environmental
Ministerial Meeting in Kobe, during 24-26 May 2008. The project further extended its support toedit the Climate Policy international journal’s special issue entitled “Modelling Long-Term
Scenarios for a Low Carbon Society” published on June 2008.
Scenario team released a report “Japan Scenarios towards Low-Carbon Society (LCS)-Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level- on February 2007. It
was the first attempt to show that there is technological potential to reduce 70% CO2 emissions inJapan by 2050 and at the same time satisfy necessary service demands. Furthermore, scenario teamreleased a report “A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)” that proposed a dozen
actions to reduce CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050 from the 1990 level in May 2008. This report is a
package of the report published by scenario team in 2007 (revised May 2008), Chapter I, and thereport on a dozen actions, Chapter II.
We would be very much delighted if this report could be helpful to develop visions,scenarios and actions towards Low-Carbon Societies and sustainable future in Japan and the world.

June 2008

I. Japan Scenarios towards
Low-Carbon Society (LCS)-Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission
reduction by 2050 below 1990 level-

Change of activity

90

38
9
7
28

36

17
41

77

Industry

10
13

Residential &commercial

6
1
24

Transportation

6
21

Energy supply

36
CCS

2050 CO2 Emission

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

Improvement of Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensity energy intensityof end-useof energy supplyof end-use

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand

Changeof activity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
Storage・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

1

Key Conclusions
Japan has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emissions by 70% compared to the 1990 level,
while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050.
Overview of the project:
1. This research assesses the possibility of achieving the Low-Carbon Society (LCS) in Japan bytargeting at 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 compared to the 1990 level.
2. The project has been sponsored by the Global Environmental Research Fund, which is fundedby the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Approximately 60 experts from research
institutes, universities, and private companies, with diversified specialties such asenvironmental and energy engineering, economics, industry, transportation, urban engineeringinternational law and politics have contributed to this research.
Socio-economic prerequisites:
3. To achieve the LCS, the following socio-economic prerequisites are considered:◇ Vibrant society maintaining a certain level of economic growth.
◇ Satisfying of the energy services demand as envisioned in the expected socio-economic
scenarios.
◇ Consideration of innovative technologies, for example, electric vehicles and hydrogenvehicles; yet, this research does not take into account uncertain technologies such as
nuclear fusion.
◇ Consistency with the existing long-term governmental plan, such as a plan of nuclear
energy.
◇ Since the objective is to identify the carbon abatement potential of Japan, the policy
options that aim at making the technological changes possible are out of the scope of thisresearch project.
Potential of 70% carbon abatement, cost and sectors
4. Satisfying the prerequisites mentioned above, a 70% CO2 emission reduction below the 1990
level can be achieved by reducing 40% the energy demand and by introducing low-carbon
energy supply.
5. The annual direct cost related to a CO2 emission reduction of 70% by 2050 would range
between JPY 7.0 and 9.9 trillion, which would account for around 1% of the estimated GDP in
2050.
6. The energy demand-side emission reductions could be accomplished by combining a shrinking
population scenario with promoting rational energy use, energy conservation and improvements
in energy efficiency, while allowing the per capita GDP growth at 1-2% towards 2050.
7. Estimated reduction rates of sectoral energy demand (relative to the 2000 value) are as follows,
where the range of reductions varies due to different scenarios in 2050:•
Industrial sector: reduction of 30-40% due to structural changes and introduction ofenergy-saving technologies.
•
Passenger transportation sector: reduction of 80% due to proper land use, andimprovement in energy efficiency and carbon intensity.
•
Freight transportation sector: reduction of 50% due to better logistics management andimprovements in the energy efficiency of vehicles.
•
Household sector: reduction of 40-50% due to rebuilding and diffusion of high-insulatedhouses and introduction of energy-saving house appliances.

3

•

Commercial sector: reduction of 40% due to renovation and rebuilding with high-insulatedbuilding and introduction of energy-saving office devices.
8. The energy supply side will also be low-carbon intensive by a combination of appropriate
selection of improvement of energy efficiency and low-carbon content energy (partially
including carbon capture and storage (CCS)).
To achieve LCS:
9. In order to achieve the LCS goals while satisfying the required amount of energy services at thesame time, prompt actions should be taken at the earliest stage of the roadmap. Such actions
involve structural changes in the industrial sector and investment in infrastructure. Moreover, itis necessary to accelerate development, investment, and use of energy-saving technologies andlow-carbon energy technologies. The government should play a leading role in promoting acommon vision towards LCS at the earliest stage, enforcing comprehensive measures for social
and technological innovation, implementing strong measures for translating such reduction
potentials into a reality, promoting measures for public investment based on long-term
perspectives and leading incentives for private investment.

4

1.

Methodology of the Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenario approach:
Applying a back-casting approachThis study analyses the possibility of achieving a LCS in Japan, where CO2 emissions, one of the
major greenhouse drivers, would undergo a 70% reduction by 2050 below the 1990 level.
Transformation in social, economic and technological activities is expected during the first half ofthe century. The range of such transformation varies widely. It is necessary to make preparations forthe desired socioeconomic changes to achieve LCS.
Assuming that such a degree of socioeconomic change is possible, the back-casting method was
adopted in this study to examine the strategies for achieving the LCS. Some of the key aspects ofthis method are shown in Fig. 1. Among the most important steps of this process we could highlightthe following:1) to envision the direction of future Japanese socioeconomic structure towards 2050 within acertain range (for instance, Scenario A: active, quick-changing, and technology oriented, andScenario B: calmer, slower, and nature oriented) and to describe the characteristics of those two
types of societies qualitatively through brainstorming by experts (narrative version),
2) to quantify behavior of people and households (how people spend time, what services will beneeded), design of city and transportation (what kinds of city and houses people live in, howpeople travel), and industrial structure (estimation of the structural changes by a multi-sector
computable general equilibrium model) for each scenario, and to estimate energy-service
demand for each scenario (for instance, the volume of cooling [calories], hot water supply[liters], crude steel production [tons], and transportation demand [ton-km, passenger-km]),3) to calculate energy services demand, while satisfying the CO2 emission reduction target that
supports the estimated socioeconomic activity in each scenario; to explore the appropriate
combination of energy services demand, end-use energy technology (air conditioner, thermal
insulation, boiler, steal plant, hybrid car, etc.), types of energy supply and energy supply
technologies, based on the consideration of the available volume of energy supply (shown as (5)in Fig. 1), its cost-efficiency and its political feasibility; to identify the types of energy demandand supply technologies as well as their shares, and finally,4) to quantify the primary and secondary energy demands and the amount of resulting CO2
emissions.

5Depicting
socioeconomic
visions
in 2050

Estimatingenergyservicedemands

Exploring
innovations
for energy
demands
and energy
supplies

Step1

Step2

Step3

Quantifying
energydemand andsupply toestimate CO2
emissions

Step4

Checking
potentials
for energy
supplyStep5

Achieving energyrelated CO2
emissions target
Fig. 1
2.

LCS scenario approach

Visions for 2050’s Japan:
Assumptions of possible future socio-economic scenarios and changes in industrial
structures

Different pictures of future Japan:
Possible pictures of future Japan and their pathways towards the LCS have been discussed byexperts from various fields. Two scenarios, A and B, have been developed as a result (Table 1, 2)[See also (1) in Fig. 1]. The features of Scenario A can be described as active, quick-changing, andtechnology oriented society. On the other hand, Scenario B is a calmer, slower, and nature oriented
society. Changes in social indicators and various assumptions made in both scenarios are within theranges of existing major studies of Japanese future society projections (Japan’s visions for 21st
century (2005, the Cabinet Office)). In reality, however, the future Japanese society may be a
mixture of elements from both the scenarios.
In scenarios A and B, annual growth rate of per capita GDP has been assumed to be 2% and 1%
respectively. The changes in services demand that are directly related to energy consumption (ex.
heating, transportation, and built environment management, etc.) have been set by assuming thechanges in lifestyle of the representative people in each scenario. The improvement in the service
levels has been assumed to be gradual and moderate. Excessive service demands such as heavy loads
in household and offices (such as air-conditioned throughout the day), or disorganized urban
structure with inappropriate urban planning which leads to considerable increase in traffic demand,
is not assumed in the scenarios.

6Table 1
Key words
Migration:
Decrease inpopulation acrossall region
Metropolitan area:
Urban

Suburb

Local area:
Urban

Agricultural,
Mountainous
area

Narrative Scenarios for land use and urban structure
Scenario A

Scenario B

Population and capital would beconcentrated more in urban areas
because of the increase in urban
preference of the people and pursuit ofconvenience/efficient lifestyles.

Decentralization of population andcapital would occur because of theincreasing need for slower lifestyles ofthe people.

Intensive land use (vertical use of landarea including underground space) inurban areas would allow people to live
near their work places, and the ratio ofpeople who live in convenient urban
areas increases.

It becomes more common to move out
from urban centers and people want tomigrate where living environment
matches with their own lifestyles. The
capital city and other core cities remain
moderate in size and population.

Emigration of population would beobserved in suburb area, however, mostof the it would be redeveloped asamusement facilities or natural
symbiosis areas through well-plannedand effective urban designing.

Outflow of population and capital would
continue. Therefore, the regeneration
plan is targeted to develop these areas as
independent urban cities rather thansuburbs of mega-city.

A number of local cities discontinuefunctioning as core city, however, somecities get re-developed as bases for land
intensive businesses such as massplantation or power generation.

Decrease in population would be
restricted since sufficient health services
or education can be enjoyed in thoseareas. There would be many attractive
local cities with original cultures andunique features.
Citizens and NGOs play important roles
in decision making processes.

Many agricultural areas or mountainous
areas would suffer from depopulation.
The regeneration efforts are targeted toeffective use of land and resources.
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
industries are operated by big privatecompanies, Efficient use of resources
such as manpower, materials, andcapital become possible. Some areas aredesignated as national parks.

More people migrate from urban to rural
areas due to increasing attractiveness ofagriculture, forestry and fisheries
industries. In addition to permanent
farmers, increasing numbers of families
enjoy secure food supply and healthy
life-styles in rural areas while pursuingbusinesses in the pattern of Small OfficeHome Office (SOHO).

7

Projections of population and number of households:
Based on the methodology and assumptions made in the research publication, “Population
Projections for Japan: 2001-2050, January 2002, National Institute of Population and Society
Security Research”, changes in parameters including birth rate, mortality rate, and percentages ofhouseholders in the population were set (see Table 2), and the populations and number of households
for each scenario were estimated. The results of the simulations show that the population in
scenarios A and B would drastically decrease to 95 million and 100 million respectively, from 127
million in 2000, because of continuing trends of aging population and lowering fertility rates. The
number of households in both scenarios has also diminished; however, the household reduction rate
is much slower than that of population since the number of family members would also decrease
because of increasing proportion of single households and elderly households. As a result, thenumber of households in scenarios A and B fades away from 47 million in 2000 to 43 million and 42
million in 2050, respectively.
Table 2
Keywords
Economy:Annualgrowth rate
Technology
development
rate
Industry:
MarketPrimary
industry
Secondaryindustry

Serviceindustry

8

Narrative scenarios for the economy and the industry
Scenario A

Scenario B• Approximately 2% of GDP per
capita growth rate
• High• Approximately 1% of GDP per capita
growth rate
• Moderately high• Reducing regulation• Penetration of market rules withmoderate regulation• Relatively less decrease• Reduced import dependency• Decrease in share• Limited production of diversified
products with local brand• Decrease in share• Increase in import dependency• Tendency to heighten theadded value• Globalization of production
bases• Increase in share• Increase in productivity• Increase in share• Increase in social activity

Assumed future trends for crude steel andcement production in Japan

Crude steel production per capita by country
Japan
1.0

China
India

0.8

Korea

0.6

U.S.A.
0.4

U.K.
Germany

0.2

France

0.0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Crude steel and cement production (ton)Crude steel productions per capita (ton)

1.2

140

Crude steel

120
100
80

Cement

60
40
20
0
1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040 2050

Cement production per capita by country
1.4
Cement production per capita (ton)

Japan
1.2

China

1.0

India

0.8

Korea

0.6

U.S.A.

0.4

U.K.

Source:(Crude steel production, Cement production)
Industrial Commodity Production Statistics (United Nations), World
Development Indicators (World Bank)(Crude steel production, Cement production in Japan)
Reports by Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources(1998, 2004, 2005) and predictions by the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan.

Germany

0.2

France

0.0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Fig. 2

1995

2000

Estimations for productions of raw materials

Estimation of the Industrial Structure:
The industrial structure of 2050 is estimated according to that of 2025 presented in “Innovative
Strategies for New Industries (2004, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)”. At present, inJapan the national production per capita of steel and cement, both of which are the outputs of theenergy-intensive industries, are about twice as much as in the Western industrialized nations (seeFig.2). The public infrastructure projects create a huge demand of construction materials such as
steel and cement. However, their demands will certainly decline by 2050, once the public sector in
infrastructure reaches maturity. As for the demand in Asia, it is assumed that the local production by
the Japanese companies would increase. Consequently, the production of crude iron and cement in
2050 will be 60-70 million tons and 50 million tons, respectively. Their national productions per
capita are expected to fall to the same level as that of the western industrialized nations.

9

150

2000
2050A
2050B

100
50
0
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
MiningFood products & beverages
TextilesTimber and Wooden products
Pump. Paper & paper products
Publishing & printing
Organic chemical materials
Medicaments
Other chemical products
Petroleum refinary and Coal products
CementOther ceramic products
Steel products
Non-ferrous metal
Fabricated metal products
MachieryElec.Machine, equip. & supplies
Transport equipment
Precision instruments
Other manufacturing
Construction
Power & gas supplies
Water supply
Wholesale & retail trade
Finance & insurance
Real estateTransport
Communications
Public administration
School education and research
Medical, Health and Social security
Other public services
Other business services
Amusement and recreational services
Eating and drinking places
Hotel and other lodging places
Other personal services
Office supplies
Activities not elsewhere classified

Domestic products, trillion JPY

200

Fig. 3

Domestic outputs by industrial sectors in 2050

The industrial structure of 2050 aiming at the low-carbon target is estimated using a
Computational General Equilibrium model (CGE) in 57 sectors. The macroeconomic indicators andproductions by categories are estimated according to the consideration of the raw material
production in Table 2 and Fig. 2. This estimation is based on a work force consistent with thedemographic composition and a size of capital stock relevant to its productivity in 2050. The energy
demand is estimated from the major parameters describing the society of 2050: the efficiency change(the improvement of energy efficiency by introducing the technologies essential to fulfill the
low-carbon target, and the progress of dematerialization) and the pattern of energy supply; thechange in demand function according to the change in demographic composition and social
structure; the expansion of raw material recycling from the stock renewal; the change of the raw
material production mentioned (as in Fig. 2); the shift in the public investment towards focusing on
the maintenance of infrastructure; the change of trade structure based on relocation of production
bases. Only a depiction of society in 2050 is considered, regardless of the change in production
facilities over time, since most of them will be replaced by 2050 (see Step 2 in Fig. 1). Fig. 3 shows
the results summed up into 40 sectors. Both scenarios A and B show the progress of the service
sector, the increase of electric machines, equipment & supplies, the transport equipment industries,
and the reduction of the energy-intensive industries. These results are not different from the previous
estimations (Japan’s visions for 21st century (2005, the Cabinet Office)). The active society (ScenarioA) demonstrates a remarkable progress in sectors such as commercial services, andelectromechanical machinery and transport machinery industries. Based on this estimation, in thefollowing sectors, only the direct effect of measures for fulfilling the LCS is evaluated. The indirect
effects such as trigger effects by the measures will not be analyzed.

10

3.

Options for LCS:
70% reduction of CO2 emissions can be achieved by means of both a 40% reduction of
final energy consumption through rationalization and appropriate choice of energy
supply options with satisfying, and/or improving current service demand levels.

Technology choices for energy demand-side under the LCS:
Scenario A and B select packages of technological countermeasures for the LCS from theEnvironmental Option Database (EDB) [Step 2 in Fig. 1] on the basis of the estimated industrial
structure in 2050, as shown in Fig. 3. The EDB includes more than 600 technology options (Table 3
lists key elements in the database). Prospects for future technological innovations have been set
based on various reports, research articles, and white papers, such as “Strategic Technology
Roadmap in Energy Field-Energy Technology Vision 2100” by Ministry of Economy, Trade andIndustry, Japan (METI). After configurations of technological countermeasures, required secondary
energy demands, such as grid electricity, fossil fuels, hydrogen, and others, were determined [Step 3
in Fig. 1]. These two steps (Step 2 and 3 in Fig. 1) have benefited from expert judgments.
Table 3

Key technological countermeasures in the Environmental Option Database

The table lists technologies which are currently expected to have potentials for deployment and diffusion in the future.
In addition, innovations in other technologies are also expected to occur which may play an important role inachieving the LCS. Such innovations would be driven to accomplish other purposes, such as improving quality of life,
as well as to implement the LCS.
SectorResidential &Commercial

Transportation

Industrial

EnergyTransformation

Technology
Efficient air conditioner, Efficient electric water heater, Efficient gas/oil water heater, Solarwater heater, Efficient gas cooking appliances, Efficient electric cooling appliances, Efficient
lights, Efficient visual display, Efficient refrigerator, Efficient cool/hot carrier system, Fuelcell cogeneration, Photovoltaic, Building energy management system (BEMS), Efficientinsulation, Eco-life navigation, Electric newspaper/magazine etc.
Efficient reciprocating engine vehicle, Hybrid engine vehicle, Bio-alcohol vehicle, Electricvehicle, Plug-in hybrid vehicle, Natural gas vehicle, Fuel cell vehicle, Weight reduction ofvehicle, Friction and drag reduction in vehicle, Efficient railway, Efficient ship, Efficient
airplane, Intelligent traffic system (ITS), Real-time and security traffic system, Supply-chain
management, Virtual communication system etc.
Efficient technologies for boiler, industrial furnace, Independent Power Plant (IPP), cokeoven, and other innovations like Eco-cement, Fluidized catalytic cracking of naphtha,
Methane coupling, and Gasification of black liquid.
Efficient coal-fired generation (IGCC, A-PFBC, Co-combustion with biomass etc), Efficient
gas-fired generation, Efficient biomass-fired generation, Wind generation (On-shore,
Off-shore), Nuclear power generation, Hydro power generation, By-product hydrogen,
Natural gas reforming hydrogen production, Biomass reforming hydrogen production,
Electrolysis hydrogen production, Hydrogen station, Hydrogen pipeline, Hydrogen tanker,
CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), etc.

11

Low-carbon alternatives for energy supply:
We have examined feasible combinations of energy sources in supply-side, shown in Fig. 4, which
satisfy both secondary energy demands and quantity constraints for various energy resources [Step 4
and Step 5 in Fig. 1]. Various criteria for energy supply-side include economic efficiency, uncertainty
of technological innovation, public acceptance, and expert judgments in the context of the narrative
scenarios as mentioned in chapter 2. As per our estimate, required energy demands in 2050 would
decrease to about 60% of 2000 level due to various kinds of innovations even with reasonableeconomic growth. In addition, decarbonization of energy supply will be necessary in order toachieve the LCS. Decarbonized energy supply systems exhibit a lot of variation (we shall discuss
diversity of energy supply systems again in chapter 7). In this research, it is assumed that large-scalecentralized energy systems, such as nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogenproduction are suitable options for the scenario A, and small-sized distributed energy systems, suchas solar, wind and biomass are suitable for scenario B.

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
50

100

150

250

300

350

400

Trans. Prv.
Residential
Commercial
Trans. Frg.

Industrial

2000(Actual)200

2050(Scenario A)
Decrease ofenergy demand2050(Scenario B)
Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
100
2000(Actural)

Coal

400

500

600

Gas

Nuclear

2050(Scenario B)
Oil

300

Oil

2050(Scenario A)

Coal

200

Biomass
Gas

Biomass

Solar and Wind
Nuclear

Hydro

Solar and Wind

Fig. 4 Energy demands and supply for achieving 70% reduction of CO2 emissions(Mtoe: Million tons of oil equivalent)12Change of activity

90

38
9
7
28

36

17
41

77

Industry

10
13

Residential &commercial

6
1
24

Transportation

6
21

Energy supply

36
CCS

2050 CO2 Emission

Improvement of Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensity energy intensityof end-useof energy supplyof end-use

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand

Changeof activity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
StorageChange of activity
Changeof activity
21
4

Fig. 5

24
13

35
5
82

23
34

40

Transportation

16

Residential &commercial

1440Energy supply

632050 CO2 Emission

Improvement of Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensity energy intensityof end-useof energy supplyof end-use

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

24

Industry

21

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Slowing of final demand by breaking away from physicalaffluence mind-set, Reduction of war material production,
Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Promoting seasonal local food・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Expanding biomass energy use in home・Diffusion of solar water heating and photovoltaic on the roof

Reduction ofservice demand・Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive
land use
・Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders(sidewalk, bikeway, cycle parking)

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Widespread use of hybrid vehicle
・Expanding biofuels
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle andbiomass generation
・Decrease of electricity demand

List of countermeasures for 70% reduction of CO2 emissions, scenario A and B

In the scenario A, countermeasures for housing complex and measures toward compact city have an effect on CO2
reduction due to centralization of urban activities. Effective options in the scenario B include actions for detachedhouse and automobiles as well as demand reduction strategies. There are common countermeasures to scenario A andB.

13

LCS can be achieved:
Through this research, we conclude that CO2 emissions in 2050 can be reduced by 70% from the2000 level, both in scenario A and scenario B, under acceleration of research, development anddeployment of new technologies. 2050’s GDPs in scenarios A and B are set to about double and 1.5
times the 2000 level, respectively. Expected future innovations will lead to the reductions in energy
demand by about 40% from the 2000 level while maintaining GDP growth and improving service
demands. In addition, decarbonization of energy supply boosts CO2 reductions to 70% below 2000
level. In each scenario, strategies for realizing LCS include three key elements: demand reduction
through rationalization of energy use; development and deployment of energy efficient technologies
and; decarbonization of energy in supply-side.
Effective countermeasures in the scenario A are energy efficiency options in demand-side, such as
implementation of energy efficient appliances in the industrial, residential, commercial andtransportation sectors, and fuel-switching options from conventional energy sources to low-carbon
energy sources, such as nuclear power and hydrogen. In scenario B, the use of low-carbon energy,
such as biomass and solar energy, in demand-side would result in drastic reductions of CO2
emissions.
Although CO2 reductions by sector vary according to the scenario, both scenarios share manytechnology options. These options involve no-regret investments, which reduce the energy costs andare profitable. Research and development activities for such technologies yield desirable outcomesfor society. The technology options that take long periods of time for implementing such ashydrogen, nuclear power, and renewable-based energy systems, require early, well-planned strategies
with consideration to uncertainties.
4.

Technology cost to achieve LCS:
Annual implementation cost required for low-carbon technology is estimated at least 7.0
to 9.9 trillion JPY

Future cost of countermeasures will vary depending on the direction of socioeconomic
development in the envisioned society. In order to achieve the envisioned society in 2050, it isnecessary to appropriately lead industrial transformation and investment in transportation
infrastructure as soon as possible. Those investments are not necessarily carried out as a climatechange policy since they will be deployed anyway for enhancing Japan’s international
competitiveness, designing safe communities with comfortable levels of mobility and energy
security. In this study, it is assumed that those investments, which also contribute for developing
LCS, as a result, will occur with appropriate timing. Hence those investments are not included in thecost analysis for achieving LCS in this study. However, even if those investments are carried out, it
will become necessary to accelerate the diffusion of innovative technologies to achieve LCS.
This study estimates the annual implementation cost of introducing low-carbon technologies inorder to achieve LCS targeting at 70% emission reductions in 2050. Annual implementation cost of
low-carbon technology needed in 2050 is estimated to be JPY 9.0 trillion to 9.9 trillion for scenario
A and 7.0 trillion to JPY 7.9 trillion for scenario B as shown in Table 4. The additional costs were
estimated by subtraction of the cost of existing technology and the cost of selected low-carbon
technology in each sector (Fig. 6). Annual additional cost in 2050 was estimated to be JPY 1.0 to 2.0
trillion for scenario A and JPY 0.7 to 1.9 trillion in scenario B. The corresponding average reduction
costs are estimated in the range of 25,000 JPY/tC to 39,900 JPY/tC.

14

Low-carbon
technology

Conventional
technology

Fixed cost, O&M cost,
Energy consumption,
Lifetime

Fixed cost, O&M cost,
Energy consumption,
Lifetime

CO2 emission
factorEnergy price,
Interest rate

Annualized
cost oftechnology

CO2
emissionsCO2emissions

Annualized
cost oftechnology

Reduction of CO2
emissions (tC)

M: Annualized cost of technology

M=

Additional cost ($)

P: Fixed costs ($)
OM: O&M costs ($/yr)
EN: Energy costs ($/yr): : Interest rate (%)α
L: Service lifetime (yr)Abatement cost ($/tC)

Fig. 6α (1 + α ) L• P + OM + EN
(1 + α ) L − 1

Calculation of additional cost to induce low-carbon technology for 70% reduction

The difference between the cost of conventional technology (existing technology which is induced when no action for
LCS is taken) and Low-carbon technology (necessary technology to actualize 70% reduction) is considered as the
additional cost.

Table 4

Additional Cost for LCS
Scenario A

Scenario B

Annual implementation

9.0-9.9 trillion yen

7.0-7.9 trillion yen

Cost (% of GDP in 2050)(0.83%-0.90%)(1.01%-1.12%)

Annual Additional Cost

1.0-2.0 trillion yen

0.7-1.9 trillion yen

Average Reduction Cost*

25,200-38,900yen/tC

25,000-39,900yen/tC*Average Reduction Cost=Additional Cost/Emission quantity reduced by the additional measure

15

5.

Technology roadmap for 2050:
A long-term saving effect through early investments in energy saving technologies

For a preliminary analysis, the emission reduction target for 2050 was set and the optimal path
(i.e., the path of minimum economic loss), of mitigation measures from 2000 to 2050 were simulated
by a dynamic optimization model. The important point to note is that this analysis was based on acomprehensive database of feasible technology options shown in Table 3 and Fig. 5 and it excluded
unrealistic technologies that exhibit high uncertainty. As a result, it was found that, considering
lifetime of capital, promoting an early investment on energy savings as well as those in the target
year becomes the optimal path of mitigation action. When energy saving investments are delayed
and yet the reduction target is to be achieved by the target year, introduction of technologies at ahigher marginal cost becomes essential and it is estimated that economic loss will be greater than theloss in the case of early investment. The effect of price reduction due to diffusion of energy saving
technologies is not considered in this simulation model, but if such an effect is taken into account,much earlier mitigation action is chosen and it will further reduce the economic loss. On the other
hand, as for investment amount, incremental costs are caused by introducing energy saving
investments. Considering an efficient use of existing capital invested, it is vital to promote energy
saving investments without missing an opportunity of new investment, because recruitment andreplacement of existing technologies by new technologies take time.
With regard to full-scale action aiming at LCS, there is an argument that it is better to delay
current mitigation action at a high cost and wait for development of cheaper measures in the future
because mitigation costs are expected to become cheaper in the future as a result of technicalinnovation. However, judging from this analysis, such an argument would be unsound.
6.

Feasibility from the viewpoint of rate of change of technology and society:
Further acceleration from the past improvement rate is necessary.

The improvement rates of Energy intensity (Energy consumption/GDP) and Carbon intensity(Carbon emission/Energy consumption) achieved by the technology innovations and social structurechanges that were adopted by this analysis for 70% reduction are faster than that of the historicalimprovement rate (Fig. 7). Especially, as for Energy intensity, the improvement rate is necessary to
be accelerated up to about 2%/year. In the past this has been less than 1.5%/year. With regard to
Carbon intensity, if CCS is not introduced the required improvement rate exceeds the historicalimprovement rate. In scenarios of European countries aiming at reductions of 60-80% in 2050,
technology improvement rates need to be at the same level as that estimated for Japan. It cannot be
overlooked that the decoupling of GDP growth and the amount of the energy service demand isessential due to the requirement of dematerialization under resource constraints; in scenario B,
energy service demand does not increase whereas GDP increases by about 1.5 times, as shown in Fig.
5. As a result, 0.5-1% of energy intensity improvement rate can be achieved. A drastic social
innovation and an exeptional technological competition will start in the future (Fig. 7 and Table 5).

16Carbon Intensity (without CCS)

Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity (CCS)Historical trend
Scenario A
Scenario B
U.K.
FranceGermany
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y)
Fig. 7

Required improvement rate of carbon intensity and energy intensity

To realize a Low-Carbon Society which reduces CO2 by 60-80% toward 2050, it is necessary to keep up the
improvement rate of Energy intensity (earn GDP with a less energy) and Carbon intensity (fuel switch into
low-carbon energy) which have been achieved before and even more.

Table 5

Speed of Improvement for Low-Carbon Society from 2000 to 2050
Improvement

Improvement

Assumed GDP

Reduction

rate of energy

rate of carbon

growth rate [Pertarget in 2050

intensity

intensity

capita GDP[Reduction rate

[rate of CCS]

growth rate]from 2000]（%/year）（%/year）（%/year）（%）

Range of historicalchange rate
2050 Japan’s LCS
scenario (this study)(base year: 1990)

World

1.0 - 1.5

0.3 - 0.4

Scenario A

2.4

Scenario B

1.7

European Countries

United Kingdom

2.6 - 2.9

Germany

1.8 - 2.8

France1.3 - 2.3

1.3
[0.5]
1.4
[0]
1.2 - 1.8
[0.3 - 0.9]
1.3 - 2.3
[0 - 1.4]
1.7 - 2.6
[0 - 2.0]

1.4 [2.0]

70 [73]0.5 [1.0]

70 [73]

2.2-3.0[2.1 - 2.8]
1.4 [1.7]

60 [60]80 [75]

1.7 [1.7]

75 [70]Base year of reduction target in United Kingdom is current state (1997), those in Germany and France are 2000.
Reference:(Historical change) Third Assessment Report of the IPCC
(United Kingdom) Dept. of Trade and Industry (DTI) in UK, 2003; Future Energy Solutions: Options for a low-carbon future, DTI.
Economic Paper No. 4., DTI, London(Germany)
Deutscher Bundestag in Germany, 2002; Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply Against the Background of
Globalisation and Liberalisation: Summary of the Final Report(France)
Interministerial Task Force on Climate Change (MIES) in France, 2004; Reducing CO2 emissions fourfold in France by
2050 -Introduction to the debate-

17

7.

Feasibility of energy supply:
Assessing energy supply constraints and early determination of future directions ofenergy system

There are many possible combinations of primary energy sources. Those considered in scenarios
A and B, as shown in Fig. 8, achieve 70% CO2 emission reductions of as shown in Fig. 4. Eachprimary energy source has two types of constraints: supply constraints and demand-side constraints.
Supply constraints are limitations of available quantity of energy sources, and demand-side
constraints include preference of energy sources by customers. For example, nuclear power would be
restricted by locational conditions, level of public acceptance, lead time for newly constructed plant,
and load factor at demand-side. Biomass energy has limitations of both domestic production andimport volume due to competition for land-use. Renewables, such as wind and solar, have physicallimits of supply potentials and instability of output in essence. Hydrogen-based energy system
requires building entire systems from scratch including low-carbon energy resources to producehydrogen.
In order to consolidate future energy systems for the LCS, it is important to determine as soon as
possible the future directions of the energy system in consideration both of keeping energy security
and of achieving the LCS, on the grounds of perspectives for primary energy supply, energy types atdemand-side, and diversifications both of energy supply and of applications.

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

2000

0

100

200

Coal

300

Oil

500

Gas

H2+PV/Wind
2050A

400

Nuclear

Solar & Wind

Ele.＋Nuc./CCS
Biomass

Biomass

2050B

H2+PV/Wind
Ele.＋Nuc./CCS
Biomass
Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar & Wind

H2+PV/Wind: Hydrogen by PV/Wind, Ele.+Nuc./CCS: Electricity by nuclear and CCS

Fig. 8

Examples of energy compositions for achieving 70% of CO2 reductions in 2050

Above figure shows three extreme conditions of energy supply. H2+PV/Wind case represents installation of solar,
wind, hydrogen system and fuel cell at a maximum with the assistance of micro-grid system.
Electricity+Nuclear/CCS case accelerates electrification of demand-side, and expands the utilization both of nuclear
power and of fossil-fueled plants with CCS. Biomass case boosts the use of biomass energy at demand-side as well as
in the electricity sector. Energy compositions at scenario A and B lie between these three cases.

18

8.

Feasibility for reducing energy demand:
Huge potential for energy demand reduction in various sectors

Energy demands in industry, transportation, household, and commercial sector in 2050 can be
reduced by approximately 40% below the 2000 level by accelerating social technologicalinnovations and energy technology development, as well as by developing appropriate infrastructure
and by transforming the industrial structure.
Industrial sector: 30%-40% reduction in energy demand through structural transformationand energy efficient technologies
250
55
76

Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

200

7
6
25
32

150

35
100

Change of industrial
outputDecrease of service
demandChange of industrial
structure
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity
consumption
Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
Oil consumption

50

Coal consumption
Energy consumption
in 2000

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Change of industrial output: changes in total production of primary and secondary industry
Change of industrial structure: structural changes in primary and secondary sectors
Improvement of energy efficiency: efficient energy devices such as furnaces and motors

Fig. 9Energy demand reduction in industry sector

The industrial structure would shift towards service economy (see Fig. 3). Productions ofelectric/transport machinery industries would also increase enhancing industrial competitiveness ofmanufacturing sectors. Social infrastructures would be further developed and the volumes of steel orcement stocked in such infrastructures would increase considerably. An innovative recycling
technology would be developed and the stocked materials within the society could be re-used forhigh-quality purposes. Applications of such technologies would lead to improvements in resource
usage rates of raw materials.
Energy demand in manufacturing processes can be classified as direct heating, steam, mechanicalpower, chemical reduction, refining, and others. Energy efficiencies of the technologies to fulfill
those energy demands such as furnaces, boilers, and motors have great potential in terms of energy
efficiency improvements.
In scenario A, in which 2% of annual GDP per capita growth rate is assumed, the production ofprimary industries and secondary industries will increase. Nevertheless, it is estimated that 30% ofenergy savings can be achieved through reduced output of energy-intensive raw materials and energy

19efficiency improvements (the energy saving effects are 76 Mtoe and 32 Mtoe respectively).
In scenario B, it is estimated that further 40% of energy reduction is possible by industrial
transformations and energy efficiency improvements (see Fig. 9).
Passenger transportation sector: 80% reduction in energy demand through appropriate land
use and energy efficient technologies
60

Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

50

7

6

2

1

9

8

40

30
28

28

Change of totaltransportation volume
Change oftransportation structure
Decrease of service
demandImprovement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption

20

Biomass consumption10

Gas consumption
Oil consumption

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of total transportation volume: decrease in total transportation demand associated with population decrease
Change of transportation structure: modal shift towards public transportation due to change of population allocation(LRT, public buses, etc.)
Decrease of service demand: shortened average trip distances associated with changes in urban structure such ascompact city
Improvement of energy efficiency: Improvement of energy efficiency of vehicles（hybrid vehicle, lightening of car
body, etc）

Fig. 10

Energy demand reduction in passenger transportation sector

Passenger transportation demand reduces due to several factors which include decrease inpopulation, reduction in average trip distance via development of “compact city” aimed at secureand safe society, promotion of public transformation in order to achieve urban development
dedicated to vulnerable road users, and other measures.
Combining the demand reduction measures together with more efficient vehicles, such as hybrid
vehicles or electric motor vehicles, and changes in fuel towards lower carbon intensity (electricity,hydrogen, and biomass) can lead to 80% reduction in energy demand from the passenger
transportation sector.
In scenario A, households, offices, and shopping centers are located more intensively in the urban
areas compared with scenario B. Therefore, the average trip distance is shorter and modal share of
public transportation is higher. Promotion of increasing density of urban structures could
additionally reduce 8-9 Mtoe of energy consumption for both scenarios.
Note, however, that car transportation would still have the highest share in passenger
transportation sector in 2050. Technology innovations of the vehicle including penetration of electricor hydrogen vehicle, lightness of car body, improvement of air resistance, installation of hybrid
engine, and other similar measures can save 28 Mtoe of energy demand for scenario A and scenario
B.

20

Freight transportation sector: 50% reduction in energy demand through efficienttransportation management system and energy efficient technologies

40
2Energy Consumption(Mtoe)

35

3
4

30
25

13

2

3
2

14

Change of totaltransportation volume
Change oftransportation structure
Change of service
demandImprovement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption

20

H2 consumption

15

Solar consumption
Biomass consumption10

Gas consumption5

Oil consumption

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of total transportation volume: changes in freight transportation demand associated with industrial production
Change of transportation structure: changes in mode of transportation through modal-shift
Change of service demand: changes associated with application of rational logistic systems such as SCM (supply
chain management)
Improvement of energy efficiency: improvement of energy efficiency of vehicles

Fig. 11

Energy demand reduction in freight transportation sector

It is possible to save approximately 50% of energy demand in scenario A and B respectively bydeveloping rational logistics systems with Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) andby promoting more efficient transportation vehicles (see Fig. 11).
SCM (Supply Chain Management), which includes appropriate management of product flows andefficient route search through ICT, would be expected to enhance the load efficiency and lessen thevolumes of returned or disposed products. In addition, advanced management of logistics networks
would make connections between small lot cargoes by truck and large lot cargoes by ship/trainsmoother, thus facilitating modal-shift. Those effects are estimated to be 4 Mtoe for scenario A and 2
Mtoe for scenario B, respectively.
Through drastic improvement of energy efficiency vehicles in the freight transportation sector, forscenario A, 13 Mtoe of energy would be saved with penetration of electric or hydrogen fueledvehicles. In scenario B, on the other hand, it is assumed that 50% more efficient vehicles fueled withbiomass would reduce the energy demand by 14 Mtoe in this sector.

21

Residential sector: Leading future replacement building to high insulated dwellings, which
strike a balance between comfortable living space and energy saving, reduces 40-50% ofenergy demand
70
60
Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

3

3
9

50

4

4
12

40
23

17

30

Change of the numbersof households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of service
demand per household
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption20

Gas consumption
10

Oil consumption

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B from present to
2050
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, thermo bathtub and Home Energy Management
System (HEMS) decrease service demand per household
Improvement of energy efficiency: energy efficiency improvement of air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove,lighting and standby power

Fig. 12

Energy demand reduction in residential sector

The average lifetime of dwellings in Japan is around 35 years and a lot of existing dwellings will
be rebuilt by 2050. Therefore it is possible to create a dwelling stock that can strike a balance
between comfortable living space and energy saving by leading future replacement buildings toenergy-saving highly-insulated dwellings (Fig. 12).
The decrease in the number of households compensates for the increase of energy demand withthe rise of service demand. The reason why the service demand of scenario A, in which people seek
convenience, almost equals that of scenario B in which people prefer more sustainable ways ofliving, is that energy service demand of scenario A will decrease due to eating out, increase ofcollective houses, and other new practices.
Rebuilding into highly insulated dwellings could reduce about 10 Mtoe. In addition to this,technological innovations such as efficiency improvement of heat pumps (for air conditioners andelectric water heaters), cooking stoves, lightings, and standby power could reduce 50% of totalenergy demand below the 2000 level.
Similar results are shown in The UK “40% House (2005, Boardman)” and Japan “Guideline forself-sustainable recycling-oriented dwellings (2005, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Japan Project for technological improvement)”.
CO2 emissions from the residential sector could be almost reduced to zero by increasing the use ofhydrogen and electricity which does not emit CO2 in scenario A, and increasing the use of
distributed renewable energy such as solar heat, solar power and biomass in scenario B.

22

Service sector: Combination of comfortable servicing space/working environment and energy
efficiency improvement reduces 40% of energy demand
70

Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

60
6

50

7
2
5

6

40

25

8

18

Change of commercial
activity
Change of commercial
sector structure
Change of energy
demand per floor space
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption

30

Biomass consumption20

Gas consumption
Oil consumption

10

Coal consumption
0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of commercial activity: floor space increases with the rise of activity
Change of commercial sector structure: share of energy intensive business fields such as hotels and restaurant
increases
Change of energy demand per floor space: high insulated buildings and Building Energy Management System(BEMS) reduce energy demand
Improvement of energy efficiency: efficient air conditioner, water heater, lightings fulfills service demand with lessenergyFig. 13

Energy demand reduction in commercial sector

The demand for floor space in service industries would rise due to increase of their outputs as the
economy becomes more service-oriented in both scenarios, A and B (Fig. 3). However, the labor
population of service industry would not increase much because of population decrease. The numberof electric appliances in the offices would increase in order to improve the working environment, but
insulation, BEMS and energy efficiency improvement of appliances could reduce 40% of energy
demand in 2050 (Fig. 13).
The activity of hotels, restaurants and amusement places which consume a lot of energy would
increase with the active consumption in scenario A. As a result, the energy consumption would
increase by 12 Mtoe. However, rebuilding to high insulated buildings and distributing BEMS could
reduce 7 Mtoe of energy demand. Besides, high efficient air conditioners, high efficient water
heaters and high efficient lightings could reduce 25 Mtoe of energy demand.

23

9.

Incentives for achieving LCS:
It is necessary to build a common vision towards LCS at an earlier stage, establish
comprehensive measures, and implement actions in a long-term schedule.

This research shows that there are technological potentials to achieve LCS by implementing
appropriate changes of industrial structure, maintaining land-use and infrastructure, and introducing
innovative technologies while satisfying a certain level of social welfare. However, to realize LCS,
the government should take a strong leadership in promoting a common awareness about risks ofclimate change, coordinating a national agreement on aiming at LCS, and implementing policy
measures which internalizes the negative externalities of CO2 emissions.
Especially, it is important to note that early actions are cost-effective. Adoption of industrial
transformation and technological development and its use depends on each decision maker (i.e., eachprivate sector, thus the government needs to clearly show a vision for LCS at an earlier stage, andprovide a social system where there are incentives for private sectors to reduce carbon emissions.
Moreover, the government should immediately determine a consistent policy to promote investment
on transportation and urban infrastructure towards LCS so as to avoid a social structure of highcarbon society in the future.
The challenge for achieving LCS is now in a global main stream and there is no turning back inthis trend. It is necessary to face this problem sincerely and the Japanese government must take steps
to enhance international competitiveness by promoting innovative technologies envisioned forachieving LCS
In order to achieve LCS by 2050 without missing opportunities for various investments on capitalformation and technology development, it is necessary to set up the national goals (i.e., the vision of
LCS, rather than target rates of reduction) at an early stage, establish the abatement schemes, andrealize a society that internalizes the negative externalities of CO2 emissions. In this process, it
stimulates and accelerates social and technological innovations that help in getting an advantage ininternational competition in the future low-carbon world.
10. Step towards global participation on climate change mitigation strategies:
Japan would set an attractive example of a LCS to Asian countries as well as to the restof the world.
This research focuses not only on domestic actions, but also on international collective actions forachieving the global LCSs under the UNFCCC, and on grass-roots activities. Our team has madecollaborative researches with some Asian countries, namely, China, India and Thailand, through thedevelopment and application of integrated assessment models. Such joint research projects attempt
to depict feasible LCS visions in developing Asian countries, and to explore ways for building
frameworks of international cooperation for the realization of the LCSs. Such activities begin toaffect national energy policies. Also, recent tight conditions of energy supply accelerate these trends.
The Ministry of the Environment of Japan and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs in the UK has been jointly promoting a scientific research project, “Developing visions for a
LCS through sustainable development”, since February 16, 2006. Our team has supported tocoordinate three workshops (the 1st workshop in June 2006, Tokyo, the 2nd one in June 2007, London,
and the 3rd workshop in February 2008, Tokyo) with participation of around 20 countries experts.
Finally “Call for Action” of the three workshops and “Executive Summary” of the 3rd workshop on
13-15 Feb 2008 were delivered to Gleneagles dialogue (G20) in Chiba, during 14-16 March 200824

and G8 Environmental Ministerial Meeting in Kobe, during 24-26 May 2008. It supported to edit theinternational journal, Climate Policy Special Issue “Modelling Long-Term Scenarios for a Low
Carbon Society” released on June 2008.

How to structure
global participation

6$200/t-C scenarioUS5

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4
UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term visionGerm any

2

FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario

W orld
China

2050

2020

2010

2000

1980

1970

Fig. 14

2040

IB1

India

0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA2

2030

1

1990

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

7

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Current per capita CO2 emissions and international targets for LCS

European countries and Japan have gone into action for the LCS. U.S.A and Canada have CO2 reduction plans, suchas emission trading schemes. On the other hand, although CO2 emissions per capita in developing counties, such as
China and India, is below compared to developed countries at the present time, these countries have large potentials
to drastic increases in CO2 emissions. How LCS is attained in developing countries? How do they get freedom fromlock-in on their energy system to high carbon infrastructures, such as private-vehicle dependent transportation
systems? How can they enjoy high quality of life under the LCS by leap-frogging into developed countries throughboth technological and social innovations?

25II. A Dozen Actions towards
Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built
environment design. Intelligent buildings

Commercial& Residential

Transportation

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.
Initial cost reduction by rent and release system
resulting in improved availability.
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Supply of seasonal and safe low carbon local foods
for local cuisine

6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
Networking seamless logistics systems with supply
chain management, using both transportation and
ICT infrastructure
7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design
City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (andbicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficientpublic transport

56-48 MtC reduction

Industrial

44-45 MtC reduction

Energy transmission

8. Low-Carbon Electricity
Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale
renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil(and biomass) fired plants

4. Consuming In-Season Local
Using local and renewable buildings materials andproducts.

9. Local Renewables for Local Demand
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,biomass and others.

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry
Businesses aiming at creating and operating in LC
market. Supplying LC and high value-added goods &services through energy efficient production systems

10. Next Generation Fuels
Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or
biomass-based energy supply system with required
infrastructure

30-35 MtC reduction(All sectors)
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and rational Choices
Publicizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for
smart choices of LC goods and service by consumers,
and public acknowledgement of such consumers

95-81 MtC reduction(All sectors)
12. Low Carbon Society Leadership
Human resource development for building “LowCarbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary
contributions.

27

Principal contents
This report proposes a dozen actions to be taken in Japan to reduce CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050
from the emission level in 1990. These actions should be taken without delay in order to create
low-carbon society in Japan.
1. “2050 Japan Low-Carbon Societies” scenario team published a report entitled “Japan Low
Carbon Society Scenarios: Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below
1990 level” in February 2007, in which it stated that Japan has the technological potential toreduce the emissions of CO2, which is the major greenhouse gas, by 70% by 2050 from theemission level in 1990 while satisfying the required amount of energy services. The report alsomentioned that to achieve the goal, the Japanese government must take strong initiatives insharing the goals of a low-carbon society, establishing comprehensive measures and long-termplans, reforming industrial structures, and funding infrastructures to encourage private
investment in energy-saving technologies and R&D of low-carbon energy technologies.
2. Based on analyses of scenarios, innovations such as technologies and reform programs forsocial systems have been studied from the viewpoint of when and how such innovations shouldbe implemented and what kind of measures and policies are effective to realize them. A dozen
actions are proposed and their effectiveness has been studied with the use of an assessment
model. The actions are expected to cover the entire 70% reduction goal. Cross-sectional and/or
additional measures will enable emissions to be reduced further, but efforts in the energy
demand sectors are particularly important. The 70% reduction will be shared as follows: 13 to
15% in industry, 21 to 24% in buildings, 19 to 20% in transportation, and 35 to 41% in energy
sectors.
3. The effects of measures and policies undertaken in a particular sector for achieving a
low-carbon society also help carbon reduction in other sectors. For example, well insulatedhouses and the use of solar energy are direct and effective low-carbon measures for the
residential and commercial sectors (including the building sector). Low-carbon measures taken
by primary energy suppliers, such as increased use of renewables, will also contribute to theCO2 reduction in the building sector. To expand the use of renewables, it is also necessary to
encourage their use in the end-use sectors. Publicity and environmental education underpin allmeasures. There are also various technological and social barriers to achieving reduction goals,
and it takes time to remove these barriers. Therefore proper steps must be taken in a duesequence. In this report, an action denotes a set of technological measures, social system reform
programs and stimulatory policies that are combined appropriately by also considering mutual
relationships.
4. In this report, economic methods that are cross-sectorally effective, such as a carbon tax andemissions trading, are not included as independent actions. The addition of economic methods
will enhance the effects of the dozen actions proposed here. Social infrastructures, such as
public works and the capital market, are assumed to be properly in place.
5. The actions proposed here were prepared based on the results of studies by about 60 researchers
in the project and opinions of experts. The scenario team has a responsibility to summarize thisreport. It is hoped that the report will contribute to drawing up policies and measures for
low-carbon societies.

29

1.

Low-carbon societies in 2050: CO2 emissions can be reduced by 70%

On February 15, 2007, “2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario team mentioned in its report
entitled “Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios: Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by
2050 below 1990 level” that Japan has the technological potential to reduce the emissions of CO2,
which is the major greenhouse gas, by 70% by 2050 from the emission level in 1990 while satisfying
the required amount of energy services in either of the two possible socioeconomic scenarios(Scenario A: Vivid / Scenario B: Slow).
Table 6

Two socioeconomic scenarios (Scenarios A and B)

Scenario A: Vivid

Scenario B: Slow

Technology-driven

Nature-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa

Further investigations were conducted for the purpose of setting reduction goals, formulating
methods for designing low-carbon society scenarios, and estimating roles of technologies related toenergy, city, transportation and ICT. In February 2008 a part of the study results was publishedentitled “Vision and achieving scenarios of a low-carbon society (in Japanese)” (Global Environment,
Vol. 12, No. 2, 2007, Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies).
In Scenarios A and B, the GDP per capita is estimated to increase by 2.7 and 1.6 fold, while thepopulation will decrease by factors of 0.74 and 0.8, leading the GDP to increase by 2.0 and 1.3 fold,respectively, from the corresponding levels in 2000. There are several movements that will reduceenergy service demands such as shifts to service industries, saturation of number of vehicles, andchange of industrial structures through decrease of investment in social infrastructures. Thus, thetotal energy demand for services will be almost equal to that in 2000 (Table 6, Fig. 15).
Various innovations, such as well insulated buildings, city structures where people can live withinwalking distance, and the development and spread of energy-saving devices will enable energy
demand to be reduced by about 40% while satisfying the service demands. It is shown that CO2
emissions can be reduced by 70% from the emission level in 1990 by implementing low-carbon

31

measures by energy suppliers, such as increasing the share of solar, wind power and otherrenewables and appropriate use of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (Fig. 15 and 16).
GDP

CO 2 Emission =Population

× Population ×CO 2 change
x 0.3

Population
change

×

=

=

GDP

GDP per capita
Demand cut bychange× Servicizing

x 0.8

Total about 70%
reduction of CO2
emissions

Service demandx 2.7

Total service demand isapproximately same as 2000
level (about 0% reduction)

x 0.4

+

Energy demand

CO2 Emission

Improvement

Fuel shift to low
carbon mix

x 0.7

x 0.4

× Service demand × Energy demand
× of energy eff. ×[Energy demand sector]
About 40% reduction
by efficient appliances, insulatedbuilding, compact city etc.

+

[Energy supply sector]
About 30% reduction
by nuclear, renewables,
CCS etc.

Fig. 15 Relationships among components for achieving 70% CO2 emission reduction fromthe 1990 level (The ratio indicates the approximate value in 2050 to the value in 2000, Scenario A)

Change of activity

90

2.

38
9
7
28

36

17
41

77

Industry
Residential &commercial

10
13

36
CCS

2050 CO2 Emission

Fig. 166
1
24

Transportation

6
21

Energy supply

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

Improvement of Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensity energy intensityof end-useof energy supplyof end-use

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand

Changeof activity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
Storage・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

Combinations of actions for achieving 70% reduction by 2050 (Scenario A)

Reduction effects of the dozen actions for each sector

In order to achieve the goal of 70% reduction by 2050, innovations such as technologies andreform programs have been studied from the viewpoint of when and how such innovations should be
implemented and what kind of measures and policies are effective to realize them (Fig. 17). A dozen
actions are proposed and their effectiveness has been studied.

32

Current society
Economic
activity

CO2

In order to achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, weinvestigated
Actions bind-which options should be selected,-when options should be introduced,
up these-how much of each option should be
options
introduced at each stage,
with reference of candidate options as prepared.

2050 Society
CO2

Economic
activity

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

BaU society

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

CO2

Economic
activity

CO2 Emission

70% reduction
targetLow carbon society
2000

2050

Fig. 17

The role of actions towards low-carbon societies in 2050

Measures and policies undertaken in a particular sector for achieving a low-carbon society not
only affect that sector but also promote carbon reduction in other sectors. For example, wellinsulated houses and the use of solar energy are direct and effective low-carbon measures for the
residential and commercial sectors. Low-carbon measures taken by primary energy suppliers, suchas increased use of renewables, will also contribute to the CO2 reduction in the building. To expand
the use of renewables, it is also necessary to encourage their use in the end-use sectors. Widepublicity and environmental education underpin all measures. There are also various technologicaland social barriers to achieving reduction goals, and it takes time to remove these barriers. Therefore
proper steps must be taken in a due sequence. In this report, an action denotes a set of technologicalmeasures, social system reform programs and stimulatory policies that are combined appropriately
by also considering mutual relationships (Fig. 17).
The model studies indicate the reduction potential in each sector. The effective measures andpolicies to realize such reduction potential are summarized as actions. A dozen actions areformulated by taking into account the model results and experts interviews (Table 2).
Principal target fields of the actions are residential and commercial sector (1 and 2), agriculture
and forestry (3 and 4), industries (5), transportation sector (6 and 7), and energy (8, 9 and 10).
Actions 11 and 12 are cross-sectional actions.
In this report, economic methods that are cross-sectorally effective, such as a carbon tax andemissions trading, are not included as independent actions. The addition of economic methods will
add value effects and enhance the effects of the dozen actions. Social infrastructures, such as public
works and the capital market, were assumed to be properly in place and improved.

33

Table 7

A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies

Name of Action

Explanation

1

Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

2

Anytime, Anywhere
Appropriate Appliances

3

Promoting Seasonal Local
Food
Sustainable Building Materials

Efficiently use of sunlight and energy
efficient built environment design.
Intelligent buildings
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate
appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent
and release system resulting in improved
availability
Supply of seasonal and safe low carbon
local foods for local cuisine
Using local and renewable buildings
materials and products
Businesses aiming at creating andoperating in low carbon market
Supplying low carbon and highvalue-added goods and services throughenergy efficient production systems
Networking seamless logistics systems
with supply chain management, using
both transportation and ICT
infrastructure
City design requiring short trips andpedestrian (and bicycle) friendly
transport, augmented by efficient public
transport
Supplying low carbon electricity bylarge-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass)
fired plants
Enhancing local renewables use, such as
solar, wind, biomass and others
Development of carbon free hydrogenand/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
Publicizing of energy use and CO2 costs
information for smart choices of low
carbon goods and service by consumers,
and public acknowledgement of suchconsumers
Human resource development forbuilding “Low-Carbon Society” andrecognizing extraordinary contributions

4
5

Environmentally EnlightenedBusiness and Industry

6

Swift and Smooth Logistics

7

Pedestrian Friendly City
Design8

Low-Carbon Electricity

9

Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand
Next Generation Fuels

10

11

Labeling to Encourage Smartand Rational Choices

12

Low Carbon Society
Leadership

Expected CO2 reductions
Residential sector:
56~48 MtC

Industrial sector:
30~35 MtC

Transportation sector:
44~45 MtC

Energy conversion sector:
95~81 MtC

Cross-sectional

The reductions in each sector are based on Scenario A and Scenario B, respectively.

34

2050 CO2 Emission

Included inothers

●

●

●

●

●

●

4

Industry

●

24

42

●

13

13

●

●

●

●

14

38

●

●

●

●

16

9

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

7

●

●

●

●

●

5

●

●

●

●

●

23

17

●

●

●

●

77

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

24

65

34

40

16

230

24

63

35
5
23

Transportation

62
Energysupplysector

82

34

40

40

+)

● : Sector in which actions contribute reduction directly: Sector in which actions contribute reduction indirectly.
□ : Sector in which reduction by actions is included under "Change of activity"

21

13
14

Residential &commercial

35

28

21
4

230

* Unit of number in the table is MtC.

40

Reductionof demand●

Improvement of
Improvement ofenergy intensity
carbon intensity
Energy demand sector●□

Changeof activity

Energy supply
sector●21+)

Fig. 18<Scenario B>●

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

95 - 812050 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand
Energy demand sector
Improvement ofenergy intensity

70% reduction

Energy supply sector
Improvement of
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
carbon intensity

12
Low Carbon Society Leadership2000 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

11Labeling to Encourage Smart andrational Choices

1990 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

10
Next Generation Fuels

Energy36 supply
sectorCCS
77

9Local Renewable Resources for Local
Demand

52

77

Low-Carbon Electricity

41

Transportation□

8

44 - 45

30 - 35 (+ α)●7Pedestrian Friendly City Design

17

Swift and Smooth Logistics

60

28

6

Environmentally Enlightened Businessand Industry

Residential &commercial

5

●

10

38

4
Sustainable Building Materials

Promoting Seasonal Local Food

Change 66
1 of activity
24
1
10 Industry
35
13
24

9
7

36

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate
Appliances

90

3

Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

6256 - 48<Scenario A>

21

1

Role of a dozen actions to reduce CO2 emissions

Fig. 18 shows the reduction effects of the dozen actions. The relationships among ranges and theestimated reductions in CO2 emissions from each sector for each scenario are shown. One action
contributes to reductions in two or more components and sectors, and reductions in a sector and in acomponent are the result of contributions of two or more actions. Possible reduction levels were
calculated not for each action but for each cross-sectional approach. The values were then used to
calculate the levels for energy supply and demand sectors, for each measure, such as changes inservices, improved efficiency, and improved carbon intensity, and for each sector such as industry,
residential and commercial, transportation, and energy conversion.
The total reduction value of 230 MtC corresponds to a 70% reduction from the emissions level in1990. The reduction levels in each sector are shown in the right column for each scenario.
Combinations of the dozen actions results in reductions of 35 to 42 MtC in industry, 60 to 65 MtC in
residential and commercial, 52 to 62 MtC in transportation, and 68 to 96 MtC by energy conversion.
Thus, the 70% reduction will be shared as follows: 15 to 18% in industry, 26 to 28% in residential
and commercial, 23 to 27% in transportation, and 33 to 17% in energy conversion.
Improvement of carbon intensity in both energy supply and demand and improvement of energy
efficiency on the demand side will be especially effective. On the whole, efforts in the energy
demand side will be the key.

35

3.

Concept of Action
Fig. 19 outlines components of Action.

1） Future Objectives: Desired social systems in 2050 are described here. Concrete figures for thetarget, such as CO2 emissions, technological levels, and penetration levels are indicatedquantitatively as much as possible.
2） Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps: Actions cannot be taken spontaneously; it takes
time to lay the foundations for establishing the actions first, then for the actions to gain public
acceptance and become rooted in society. There are also technological and social barriers to be
removed. Implementation time is needed to remove the barriers through various strategies,
including approaches, countermeasures and policies. These strategies should be executed in theproper sequence. There are some strategies that can and must be taken immediately. Other
strategies may need certain barriers to be removed before they can be implemented. There arecertain barriers that need continuous counteracting efforts.
3） Procedure of actions: The bottom part of the figure shows elements of both (1) and (2) withtimeline in the form of Gantt chart. Various actions, countermeasures and policies forovercoming the barriers, and their chronological implementation for achieving the goal are
shown in the lower part of the sheet.
When the actions of other stakeholders can be
crucial to achieve the future objectives, their
expected contributions are mentioned here.
Future images expectedfrom introduction of eachaction are described.
Clear and quantitative
targets are set where
possible.

Barriers to achieving thefuture objectives and the
stepwise strategies toovercome those barriers
are described. The main
actors for each action
stated here are central
and local governments if
not otherwise specified.

Indicators to measure theachievement of each action
are presented here.
Quantitative target are set
where possible.

1

3
2This section outlines the barriers on
the left side and presents thestrategies to overcome them in formof a bar chart.

Fig. 19

The keywords that describe
future objectives arepresented. The details ofeach keyword are describedin “Future Objectives” in theleft page (box 1 in thisfigure).
Each strategy is expressedin a solid bar and the lengthof the bar indicates the timeschedule of the strategy. If
a strategy lacks continuity
then it is expressed as asequence of circles.

Components of Action

The dozen actions are outlined in latter part of the report with two pages dedicated to each action.
4.

Actions and their implications for homes and offices, transport and Industry

The effects of the dozen actions for achieving low-carbon homes, offices, transport, and industry
were investigated. Not only the actions for directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions of a sector,

36

but also actions which induce CO2 reductions indirectly were investigated.
Actions in homes and offices
Many energy-consuming devices are used in homes and offices to make life and work more
comfortable and efficient. Such devices are a major source of CO2 emissions.
To reduce energy load sharply, houses and buildings need to be designed to prevent heat fromescaping and penetrating inside; solar heat and natural wind should be used for temperature controlof buildings, and solar power should support lighting. To encourage the construction and penetrationof such houses and buildings, policies should be implemented for reducing the economic burden on
their owners and systems should be introduced for assessing and labeling the environmental
performance of buildings. Well insulated houses minimize temperature differences among rooms,
enable the provision of high-quality heat with low carbon emissions, such as radiant heat. These
measures are appropriate for an aged society (Actions 1, 5).
Energy-efficient appliances and devices also contribute to the CO2 reduction in homes and offices.
In order to accelerate the improvement of energy efficiency, the coverage of the conventional
top-runner system should be extended to include all energy devices, and the improvement targets
should be revised every few years. Rewarding systems for entities that develop excellent
technologies should also be adopted for strengthening market penetration of energy-efficienttechnologies (Actions 2, 5).
However, these newly-developed efficient devices will not be widely used unless users actively
adopt them. To support such low-carbon consumption, advertising systems and infrastructures
should be constructed to enable consumers to obtain correct information about greenhouse gas
emissions from their consumption behavior. Through these activities, CO2 emission from productionof goods and services could be cut indirectly (Actions 11, 12).
Not eating vegetables, fruits and other food that are not seasonal reduces the energy required to
produce farm products (Action 3). Active use of wood instead of steel and cement for constructing
houses and buildings will reduce the consumption of materials whose production processes needhigh energy (Action 4).
There are also measures for sharply reducing energy, such as active use of solar, wind and biomassenergies available locally and purchase of low-carbon electricity (Actions 8, 9 and 10).

37

1. Comfortable & green built environment
12. Low carbon society leadership
Citizens understand that low-carbon society
promotes safe and cozy life, and undertake
various actions towards that end.

Keep warm/cool air in the building by active
solar system and by changing building
structure.

11. Labeling to encourage smart and rational
choices
Disclosing the amount of CO2
emission makes consumers
select low-carbon products
in affordable way.

CO2

2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances
Rental services relieve the burden of initialcost of high efficiency equipments, andpromote service supply independent frommanufacture.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Consumers select low-carbon
seasonal food and can get the
information about farm producers.

CO2

4. Sustainable building materials

10. Next generation fuels

Actively use ofwood feedstock andwood manufactures.

Simultaneous supply of heatand electricity by fuel cell.

9. Local renewable resources for local

demand5. Environmentally enlightened business andindustry

8. Low-carbon electricity

Active selection ofregional solar/wind energies.

Selection of low-carbon electricity
such as renewable/nuclear
energy and thermal power with CCS.

Fig. 20

Change of office space design and use fully
to low-carbon style.

Actions for low-carbon homes and offices

7. Pedestrian friendly city design

11. Labeling to encourage smart andrational choices
Disclosing the amount of
CO2 emission makes consumers
smarter to select transportation
devices.

CO2

Effective urban planning; high use facilities,
houses and offices are built in nearby areas.
Use of public traffic system and efficient vehicles.
10. Next generation fuels
Use of hydrogen/bio-fuel energy.

CO2

9. Renewable resources for local
demandActive selection of regional solar/windenergies.

8. Low-carbon electricity
Use of low-carbon electricity such as
renewable/nuclear energies and thermal powerwith CCS.

12. Low carbon society leadership
Developing human resources for designingadvanced urban areas organized withinwalking range.
Encouraging citizens to prefer walking inurban areas.

5. Environmentally enlightened business and industry
Simultaneous matching of supply and demandchanges production, logistics, consumption anddisposal practices to low-carbon choices.

6. Swift and smooth logistics
Commodities are transported to shops andwarehouses swiftly.

Fig. 2138

Actions for low-carbon transport

Actions for transport
Greenhouse gases in the transportation sector are mainly emitted when people travel by car or
public transportation, and when goods are transported by truck and ship.
Concentrating houses, offices and commercial facilities at the center of cities will reduce thedistances traveled by people and hence reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal,people should fully understand the advantages of living in cities where they do not need cars but canwalk for living. Municipal governments, together with citizens, should draw up land use plans thatconsider such low carbon designs. Realizing such cities will raise market competitiveness of public
transportation systems, such as bus, railways and Light Railway Transit (LRT), and thus thesesystems should be actively constructed. On the other hand, in regions where people live far away,
they will need cars to move. The efficiency of cars should be greatly improved by switching engines
to electric motors and reducing vehicle weight, resulting in the drastic reduction of CO2 emissions
from transportation (Actions 7, 12).
To achieve low-carbon logistics, infrastructures for mass transportation systems such as railways
and ships need to be constructed. Diverse forms of support should be given to increase thetransportation capacities of these systems, such as by improving and expanding harbors and therailway network and developing high efficiency transportation devices. Systems and infrastructures
should also be constructed to enable smooth transshipment at distribution centers (Action 6).
Active use of solar and wind energy available locally for cars will contribute to sharp reduction of
CO2 emissions. Purchasing low-carbon electricity is also effective. It is also necessary to encourage
the use of hydrogen fuel cell cars and bioenergy fuels (Actions 8, 9 and 10).
To support low-carbon mobility, systems are needed to enable all entities involved in transport toacquire, at any time and place, information both on transportation system, such as timetable andtransportation fare and on greenhouse gas emissions from transport (Actions 11, 12).
Actions for industry
Companies should minimize carbon production in the lifecycle of their products (production,transport, sales, consumption and disposal). The entire business process should also be optimized
using advanced information technologies so as to synchronize supply and demand and to construct
efficient production-transportation systems (Actions 5, 6).
With government providing economic support to low-carbon businesses, such as strengthening
public investment and giving tax benefits, companies can continue to develop leading technologies
with high energy-efficiency and low carbon intensity. Conventionally, energy devices are sold tousers, but to shift to the low-carbon business model, industries and/or commerce should shift toleasing of devices and appliances. This business style also supplements the pathways towards
sustainable and/or recycling society. Under this style, companies will be responsible for keeping thedevices operating at maximum efficiency (Actions 1, 2, 5 and 11).
For farm products, farmers should intend to produce in-season foods, and information on
production should be actively publicized to consumers to enable them to select low-carbon products(Action 6). In forestry, the timber market should be expanded to replace steel and cement, which
consume high energy in manufacture, and competitiveness should be enhanced by rationalization(Action 5).
The energy industry should aim to supply zero-carbon power by combining renewable energies,
nuclear power, and CCS-equipped fossil-fired power. Introduction of hydrogen- and biomass-based
fuels are also indispensable for achieving low-carbonization of industries (Actions 8, 9 and 10).
Fosterage of low-carbon experts through school education curricula and establishment of39

qualification system, such as a low-carbon advisory system, will grow human capital and resources
for practice of activities towards low-carbonizing industries (Action 12).
2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances
Constant effort for development of user
friendly top-runner efficient devices.

5. Corporate social responsibility for people
and earth
Providing high-value and low-carbon goods andservices at affordable prices in an effective way.

12. Low carbon society leadership

3. Promoting seasonal local food

Cultivation of human resources to designand support a low-carbon industry.

Active disclosure of product information for
consumers.

9. Local renewable resources for local
demand

4. Sustainable building materials

Production activity using regional energy
and supply of surplus energy to others.

Enhancement of competitiveness ofdomestic timber by thoroughrationalization efforts.

8. Low-carbon electricity

10. Next generation fuels

Supplying low-carbon electricity such as
renewable/ nuclear energy, and thermal
power with CCS.

Promoting R&D and investment in supply
systems based on hydrogen and bio-fuel.

1. Comfortable and green built
environment

6. Swift and smooth logistics

Promoting R&D of zero-carbon buildings.

11. Labeling to encourage smart andrational choices

Reducing stocks and goods-in-process bypromoting supply chain management
through the utilization of IT integrated withefficient logistics.

Supporting consumer’s wise-selection
through actively information disclosure.

Fig. 2240

Actions for low-carbon industry

5.

Summary(1) Proposing a dozen actions and their quantification: A dozen actions are proposed thatenables Japan to reduce CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050 from the level in 1990, based ontechnological selection models. An action denotes a set of technological measures, social
system reform programs and stimulatory policies that are combined appropriately by also
considering mutual relationships.
(2) Investigating actions by back-casting method: We use back-casting method, whichinvestigates actions to achieve the 70% reduction goal starting from 2050 and working backto today. From the model, numerical estimates can be prepared on what energy use (or CO2
emissions) should be done. Actions are summary of necessary approaches, technologicalselections, social reforms, policies and measures to achieve the targets. It would havefinancial advantage to start the actions later for technological progress; however approaches
to halt climate change cannot be taken at once. It takes time to construct the necessary
infrastructures, and taking actions at once would impose higher costs due to limited resources,
funds and manpower. Consistent policies towards clear goals must be developed in proper
sequence.
(3) First step towards a sustainable society: Taking measures against climate change is a major
opportunity to transform the conventional technological society that depends on hugeresources and energy, into a society in which little energy and resources are used. This will
also be the first step towards a sustainable society, which is our goal. Japan is one of the most
rapidly aging societies, and now is the time to restructure the nation. A low-carbon society
should be created by fully considering these conditions, which require reforms, and so as tobe mutually effective.
(4) Need for collaborative efforts: The government must demonstrate leadership for creating a
low-carbon society, but this alone is insufficient. The national government, municipal
governments, citizens, business entities, NGOs and other entities should share the vision of alow-carbon society, understand their roles and act in cooperation with each other. Most of theactions proposed here will be the basis of such cooperation and cannot be fulfilled unless all
cooperate. All researchers involved in this study sincerely hope that a low-carbon society willbe created by all people collaborating on the dozen actions in order to stabilize the climate.

41

The Details of Actions

1.

Comfortable and Green Built Environment

2.

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances

3.

Promoting Seasonal Local Food

4.

Sustainable Building Materials

5.

Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry

6.

Swift and Smooth Logistics

7.

Pedestrian Friendly City Design

8.

Low-Carbon Electricity

9.

Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand

10.

Next Generation Fuels

11.

Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices

12.

Low Carbon Society Leadership43

1

Comfortable andGreen Built Environment

Future Objectives
Solar and Wind Utilization Design
Architectural technologies and designs that are suitable for the climate of each region, using passive design layout for
introducing sunlight and natural wind into the building, are widely disseminated. In addition, the individual levels of
insulation technologies, screen technologies, ventilation technologies have been improved drastically, thereby enabling
reduction of energy consumption while retaining comfort within residences and buildings. Consequently, the demandfor energy per household will decline by about 40% from 2000 levels; also, the energy demand per unit area of nonresidential building floor space will decrease by 40%. Furthermore, for the walls and roof in each building, installationof solar water heaters and solar power generators will be standardized. In particular, most of low rise housing will
become zero carbon residences through the combination of high insulation, passive design, and solar energy use.

Household Finance-friendly Environmental Efficiency
For newly built or renovated buildings, reduction and exemption scheme of real estate tax and loan interest rates in
response to certification results of household environmental efficiency (CO2 emissions and energy consumption)
becomes available. The scheme provides incentives for purchasing of residences with high environmental efficiency.
For existing residences, low cost environmental efficiency consulting services are provided. The services offer adviceson the structural alteration of the building in order to enhance environmental efficiency and act as an intermediary foralteration expense discount programs and favorable loan interest rates. As such, a framework system for the entire
society to place a high value on the level of environmental efficiency of residences is in place. Therefore, even citizens
with low environmental awareness choose residences with superior environmental efficiency.

Nurturing of Worker Skills; Information Transmission
Designers and architects who are highly skilled in bonding architectural designs that make use of local and regional
climate and the use of leading edge equipment are nurtured in each area; their know-how will be handed over to the next
generation. Moreover, long-life buildings such as “200-year homes” have become widespread, limiting unnecessary
consumption of resources and energy.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Standardization Period
Currently, at the time of purchasing or contract leasing of residences and buildings, since there is no requirement ingeneral for the presentation of information regarding environmental efficiency, this has not been an item of importance.
Also, even today, although it is possible to evaluate the environmental efficiency of residences and buildings, thenumber of people capable of performing these complex calculations have not been sufficient, hindering its widespreadpractice. Accordingly, the proposed strategy promotes the establishment of simplified evaluation method for building
efficiency according to use in consultation with existing building evaluation methods (CASBEE, etc.) and evaluation
methods implemented in Europe and other countries. At the same time, it continues to make progress on nurturing
practitioners for the diagnosis of energy-saving efficiency and CO2 reduction efficiency. Furthermore, lectures
for craftsmen on building technology will be established in universities and other educational institutions, and byorganizing in each region training classes and events intended for construction workers, foundations will be created for
passing on the knowledge of energy-efficient building technologies and designs.

Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period
A labeling system for residences and buildings will be commenced based on the newly-developed evaluation methods.
Long-term energy-saving target values (upward in incremental steps) will be set for each type of building usage.
Certification and registration of labeling will be mandatory at the time of purchase for newly-built residences, at thetime of renovation for existing buildings, and at certain intervals for leased and business buildings. Those failing tomeet the lowest-rank standard will receive guidance to attain the acceptable standard values through the introductionof high-efficiency equipment, solar power generator, solar thermal equipment and so forth. In addition to the annual
energy consumption of the average household and CO2 emissions, the environmental efficiency labels will include theeconomic figures for the buildings such as the average annual energy cost, enabling comparisons of initial investments
and running costs. Furthermore, through combination of tax breaks and low interest financing loans that correspond to
the environmental efficiency label, incentives will be provided to owners and users of buildings to select residences orbuildings on a long-term basis.
44

低炭素英文.indd 44

08.6.20 17:32:33

Contribution of Building Owners

Contribution of Architects, etc.

Selection of residential buildings with highenvironmental efficiency. Commission of low-carbon
design to architects and construction companies.

Development of low-carbon architectural design
methods. Investing for technology development ininsulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional
worker skills.

Standardization
PeriodBarriers

Complex energysaving performance
metrics, highcalculation costs,
insufficientpersonnel
Insufficientincentives forchoosing energysaving residences
and buildings

Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period

Residential household energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)
Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)

Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving
and CO2 reduction efficiencies

FutureObjectives

Solar and windutilization
designEstablishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental
efficiency of residences and buildings

Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge
of architectural technologies

Finance-friendly
environmental
efficiency

Nurturing ofworker skills &informationtransmission

Introduction and expansion of residence and building labelingsystem for environmental efficiency (new building, renovation,
mandatory indication upon leasing)

Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest
loan financing based on the environmental efficiency label

Establishment and review of long-term energy-saving
standard targets for buildings
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

45

右頁別�ターン.indd 45

08.6.20 19:17:18

2

Anytime, Anywhere

Appropriate Appliances

Future Objectives
Dissemination of Energy-saving and Control Technologies
As a result of technological competition for energy saving on home appliances and businesse quipment, the energy
efficiency of all equipments is greatly improved, enabling efficient use of energy with minimal waste. Also, practicaluse of information communication technology (ICT) has made it possible for autonomous operation and control ofequipments to automatically suspend the operation in spaces and periods of time when people are not present.

Service Consumption LifestyleAir-conditioning equipment and hot water heaters are leased rather than sold, with a charging system in responseto the volume of usage. The charging system for electricity and gas is such that the leasing companies are charged,
causing them to make efforts for reduction of energy costs by improving the efficiency of equipments through continual
equipment repairs and exchange of parts as well as updating to the latest high-efficiency equipments. Furthermore,
more effective use of resources is performed as post-use equipments are sent back to the leasing companies to make thecollection process of unnecessary equipment easy.

Leading the world
Japan has the highest global technological levels, and this advancement elevates the appeal of the country throughout
the world. These technologies are exported throughout the world, thus besides supporting Japan’s economy they
contribute to the creation of a low-carbon society.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
System Revision Period
The top-runner system has been a system with great results. Based on this experience, the scope for its application will
be expanded with the focus on business affairs. Moreover, the evaluation method for the top-runner standard values
will be reviewed so as to appropriately evaluate the energy-saving efficiency attained by autonomous control of airconditioning and lighting equipments.

Business Model Conversion Period
Under the revised top-runner system, efficiency improvement of each equipment item will be promoted. Simultaneously,
in corporation with industry organizations, a third-party system will be established to evaluate the contribution levelof each company for equipment efficiency, energy savings and CO2 emission reduction, publicly announcing andrecognizing those companies with superior contribution in each year. Moreover, strategic initiatives will be taken to
make Japanese technologies and evaluation techniques into international standards. A shift from the retail style to theleasing business style will be encouraged by establishing lowest recovery rates and by incrementally tightening thestandards. Furthermore, for leasing companies, supportive measures will be in place, including provision of incentives
such as reduction of fixed property tax for the top-runner equipments and CO2 emission reduction equipments (solar
power generators, solar water heaters, etc.) that they own.

46

低炭素英文.indd 46

08.6.20 17:32:36

Contribution of Product Users

Contribution of Companies (manufacturers)

Selection of equipment high in energy savings andlow in CO2 emission.

Positive performance of R&D on energy savings
products. Appeals for environmental efficiency of
their products.

SystemExpansion
PeriodBusiness Model Conversion Period
Air-conditioner COP : 5~8High efficiency illumination : 200lm/W
Heat pump water heater COP : 6.3, etc.

Barriers

Existence ofequipments notcovered by top-runnersystemInsufficient
framework forappropriate
evaluation ofenergy-saving
control technologies,
etc.
Development of toprunner and low CO2
equipments, faster
diffusion

Broadening of targeted products to be regulated by Top-RunnersystemFutureObjectives

Dissemination ofenergy-saving &control technologies

Reviewing of evaluation method for top-runner standard values
Serviceconsumption
lifestyle
Introduction of revised top-runner system
Leading
the world

Establishment of a third-party institution to evaluate
contributions of companies in energy savings and CO2
reduction
Introduction of incentive schemes for companies

Supportive measures for leasing industry(reduction of fixed property tax, etc.)

Review of top-runner system (scope enlargement, systemreview, establishment of recovery rate)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

47

低炭素英文.indd 47

08.6.20 17:32:38

3

Promoting Seasonal
Local Food

Future Objectives
Raising of Low-Carbon Agriculture by Consumers
At the time of selecting foodstuffs in supermarkets and restaurants, the advertising of health related information andCO2 emissions will increase the popularity of low-carbon agricultural produce. Specifically, consumers prefer seasonal
produce and other vegetables grown using solar thermal or biomass even if they were grown in greenhouses, thus
farmers make various innovations to ensure lower carbon emissions. Also, supermarkets and other stores support theirefforts to promote low-carbon produce by introducing eco-points and similar other incentives.

Low-Carbonization of Production Process
While production and consumption of produce in season have become more prevalent, there has been a large decreasein greenhouse cultivation which consumes a large amount of energy. Even with its implementation, farmers actively
utilize solar thermal, biomass and local small- and medium-sized hydroelectric power generation. As a result, per yield
CO2 emissions for vegetables and fruits have declined to less than half the current figures. Moreover, biofuels madefrom irregular agricultural produce and agricultural waste are used as fuels for agricultural machineries, contributing to
the low-carbonization of production process for agricultural produce.

Agricultural Fields and Pastures without Greenhouse Gas Emission
Through engagement in new agricultural production methods, technological development, breed improvement and soforth, emissions of N2O, CH4, etc. from agricultural fields and pastures have declined greatly.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Verification Period
Farmers who desire certification in low-carbon agriculture will be recruited to participate in verification tests for
agricultural produce labeling. In collaboration with participants in the verification tests, discussions will be held toimprove the policy towards low-carbon agriculture, thereby accumulating the experience and knowledge of low-carbon
agriculture. Simultaneously, low-carbon agriculture advisors with adequate experience in the field will be nurtured.

Diffusion Period
The target areas of agricultural produce labeling system and low-carbon agriculture certification system will be
expanded to include the whole country. However, in some cases introduction of high-efficiency equipment, solar
water heater, biomass boiler, etc. are necessary, thus for these equipments, the municipalities will establish systems forlending (leasing) and giving out subsidies. Also, in order to assure the acceptance of low-carbon agricultural produce
by consumers, guarantee of taste and safety will be given to certified produce, in addition to active appeals made bothwithin and outside Japan through government publicity. In addition, systems will be constructed so that certified results
can be mutually confirmed with major trading partners of agricultural produce, broadly spreading the knowledge of
low-carbon agriculture that Japan has so as to contribute to the realization of a low-carbon society.

Establishment Period
Low-carbon agriculture will become the standard method because consumers can easily select low-carbon produce, andbecause producers will have lower running cost with reduced usage of heavy oil and so forth. Thus, various government
and municipal subsidies should be gradually reduced to promote independence.

48

低炭素英文.indd 48

08.6.20 17:32:38

Contribution of Consumers

Contribution of Farmers

Selection of seasonal food products and low-carbon
items based on environmental and safety informationof food.

Seasonal item cultivation. Use of low-carbon energy
in greenhouses as much as possible.

Verification
PeriodDiffusion Period

CO2 emissions per yield of vegetables
and fruits : Less than half

Barriers

Insufficientknowledge andexperience of lowcarbon agriculture
Cost of equipment
introduction is high.
Lack of appropriate
equipment

Establishment Period

FutureObjectives

Raising of lowcarbon agriculture by
consumers

Verification testing of low-carbon agriculture

Nurturing of low-carbon agriculture advisors

Demand for andsupply of low
carbon produce
need to match

Low-carbonization of
production
process

Introduction/expansion of low-carbon agriculture certification system

Leasing and financial subsidies for agricultural machines andsolar thermal equipments

Fields & pastures
without
greenhousegas emission

Introduction of international certification system

Government publicity for low-carbon agriculture(safety/taste evaluation, low-carbon agriculture promotion)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

49

低炭素英文.indd 49

08.6.20 17:32:39

4

Sustainable Building
Materials

Future Objectives
Life Surrounded by Trees
In addition to low-rise residences, the popularity of wooden residence has spread widely to medium-rise residences aswell. Building construction using lumber with high strength and fire resistance (such as large-section laminated lumber)has become popular even for schools, hospitals, other public buildings, low-rise large-scale stores and factories, with thepercentage of wooden buildings exceeding 70%. Also, the use of wood for furniture and fittings has greatly increased,
and wood is used for various applications including civil engineering, architectural foundations, guardrails and soundproof walls.

Revival of Forestry Business
Due to the introduction of service road networks and usage of advanced machineries, labor productivity of forestry has
increased by 5 times the 2000 average level. Also, due to the establishment of effective application technology for woodbiomass, over 9,000,000 BDT (Bone Dry Tonne) of remaining materials in the forest are used annually. Log production
volume has expanded to 50,000,000m3, and timber self sufficiency has surpassed 65% to allow for increasing
exportation of wood overseas (in 2006, the domestic log production volume was 17,480,000 m3, with the timber self
sufficiency of 20.3%, according to “2006 Chart of Lumber Demand and Supply” by the Forestry Agency). However,clear cutting is limited to old growth forests with declining growth rate. Together with proper reforestation done using
low-cost afforestation technologies, sustainable forestry business is established.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Competitiveness Recovery Period
In order to achieve maximum utilization of usable domestic lumber, existing standards and restrictions regarding
wood products will be reviewed. For current forestry, from the profit perspective, the incentives for forest owners are
extremely insufficient to implement thinning and clear cutting. One of the factors is that the unit of forestry businessis too small to achieve efficient management of forests. Accordingly, low-cost log production will be realized throughintensification of forest management (collaborative business implementation) and subsidies to promote mechanizationof log production. At the same time, political measures will be taken to achieve expansion of forestry management units
by promoting small-scale forest owners to either sell or commission their forests for a long term to forest entities (suchas forest associations) which can properly manage their forests. Furthermore, the remaining materials in the forest are
currently not fully utilized at all because of their high supply costs, high moisture content and irregular shapes. In order
to increase their utilization, the government will implement supportive measures for the development and introductionof necessary equipments for collection of the remaining materials as well as for the transportation of the materials.

Utilization Expansion Period
Utilization of wood will be promoted by thorough procurement of natural resources for construction of public
infrastructures. In addition, for the use of wood and their material cycles, property tax reduction measures andenvironmental taxes will be introduced to promote wood utilization further. On the other hand, for prevention of profitcentered unregulated logging due to the increase in demand for wood, forestry guidelines will be created, by which
third-party organizations are designated to certify business entities that implement sustainable forest management
and pro-environmental logging. Simultaneously, systems will be constructed so that certified results can be mutuallyconfirmed with major trading partners of lumber, suppressing illegal logging and other activities overseas. Furthermore,development of new machineries will be necessary due to the increase in tree age and size, and consequently, it will benecessary to construct large-scale service road networks on which large trucks can drive.

Utilization Establishment Period
Various kinds of utilization have been established for Japanese cedar wood, and the percentages of wood utilization
for buildings and furniture approach 70%. Together with this, the competitiveness of eco-conscious wood products
reach a global level. From then on, support will be given to the forestry industry so that new channels for sale ofnational lumber can be cultivated abroad. By this time, demand for biomass resources will outgrow supply of remaining
materials from the forests, thus it will be necessary to commence production of biomass resources with short harvestintervals.

50

低炭素英文.indd 50

08.6.20 17:32:39

Contribution of Forest Owner

Contribution of Forest Industry

Proper forest management, or sales/commissioningof their forests to a forest association.

Disclosure of CO2 emissions of lumber to consumers.
Establishment of construction technologies for
medium-rise and large-scale wooden buildings.

Competitiveness
Recovery
PeriodBarriers

Regulatory barriers foruse of domestic
lumber for buildings

Risk of causing
unregulated profitcentered forest
management

Utilization Establishment Period

Forestry labor productivity : x5 (from FY2000 level)
Forestry production volume : 50,000,000m3 (timberself sufficiency: 65%)
Percentage of wood utilization for construction/furniture : 70%

FutureObjectives

Review of standards and regulations
Life surroundedby trees
Preferential measures for wood products and recycling(property tax reduction, environmental tax)

Insufficientincentives for wood
utilization
Insufficient profit
due to low
management
efficiency of forestry

Utilization Expansion Period

Revival offorestry businessThorough green procurement

Intensive forest management and promotion of agglomeration

Subsidies for forestry machineries and collection system
for remaining materials
Certification system for eco-conscious forest management(guideline, third-party certifying entity)
Introduction of international certification system

Expansion of service road networks

Cultivation of overseas sales
channels for domestic lumber
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

51

低炭素英文.indd 51

08.6.20 17:32:41

5

Environmentally EnlightenedBusiness and Industry

Future Objectives
Minimum 40% Efficiency Improvement
Through continual efforts of enterprises and social systems supporting them, the energy consumption per actual
production volume in each industry has declined by a minimum of 40% in comparison to 2000 (equivalent to an annual
reduction rate of 1% in each section).

Demand Pull by “Low-Carbon” Value Permeation
Consumers have come to prefer low-carbon products and services, and accordingly, companies are increasing theirdevelopment investment in low-carbonization of their manufacturing technologies and services. In addition, sincemonetary investment on companies actively implementing low-carbonization is on the increase, low-carbonization ofcompany activities has become an important element from the viewpoint of corporate competitiveness. Consequently, anumber of revolutionary technologies have been put into practice, such as iron-making technologies that use hydrogenas the reducing agent.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
System Establishment Period
In order to objectively apprehend companies’ efforts toward low-carbon targets, a system for publicizing the CO2
emissions of each company and office in a unified (standardized) format will be established. Moreover, another systemfor publicizing these companies’ efforts toward a sustainable society will be in place. To provide the companies witha third party certification for their emissions and efforts, a system for authorized CO2 accounting will be introduced.
On the other hand, the policy for implementing eco-conscious “socially-responsible investment behavior” will beclearly addressed to financial institutions. Those achieving a certain rate of loan assets for low-carbon businesses
will be announced, thereby providing support for low-carbon businesses. Moreover, a system to concentrate moneyon companies with low-carbon management will be constructed by introducing preferential measures, such as tax
reductions, for low-carbon investments and financial products.

Introduction Period
Based on the CO2 emission data of companies from “disclosure” schemes, systems for supporting companies that
conduct low-carbon management will be introduced. To be specific, a carbon tax will be imposed on the emission of
CO2 caused by company activities. On the other hand, incentives (large scale tax reduction measures and technologicaldevelopment support for attaining CO2 reduction targets) will be given to companies which have achieved the CO2
reduction targets regarding which they had made an agreement with the government. CO2 reduction targets areevaluated by third-party organizations, and the incentives including tax reduction measures and technology development
subsidies will be differentiated depending on the degree of achievement. Also, in parallel with the introduction ofenvironmental taxes, a system for emissions trading will be introduced so as to create a systems framework that canminimize the companies’ CO2 reduction cost and the risk of not achieving their targets. Regarding the rate of the carbon
tax, although it will be gradually increased, the long-term changes in the tax rate will be made public so that companies
can make long-term management plans and technology development investment plans while taking future tax rates into
account. Furthermore, for companies with particularly advanced activities, large scale public acknowledgement suchas “Low-Carbon Organization of the Year” will be given. Through these measures, companies will be encouraged toconvert to low-carbon production technologies and services.

Ensuring CompetitivenessRegarding some industries easily exposed to international competition, the introduction of carbon tax and suchmeasures could lower their international competitiveness. Also, the burdens placed on manufacturing companies could
lead to an exodus of manufacturing industry to overseas. Accordingly, through international negotiation, government
will work with each country in the world to adopt an international framework (sectoral approach, border tax, etc.) inorder to prevent significant disadvantages to some industries. Although flexible tax measures will be adopted until asufficient scheme is constructed, these special tax measures will be repealed by 2020.

52

低炭素英文.indd 52

08.6.20 17:32:41

Contribution of Consumers

Contribution of companies

Active utilization of environmental information
disclosed by companies in product selection. Support
companies implementing low-carbon business(investment/product selection).

Perform thorough energy savings/CO2 reduction incompany activities. Procure energy and material thatare as low-carbon emission as possible.

SystemEstablishment
PeriodIntroduction Period

Ensuring CompetitivenessAmount of consumption per actual
production : -40％ (from FY2000 level)

Barriers

Difficult to compare
levels ofcontribution for a
low-carbon society
among companies
Insufficientincentives for
implementation of
low-carbon
management
Possible loss ofinternational
competitivenessdue to carbon tax
in some industries

FutureObjectives

Establishment of CO2 emission information disclosure systemfor each company and office

Minimum 40%
efficiency
improvement

Development of authorized CO2 accounting system
Demandpull by “lowcarbon” value
permeation

Tax reduction for investments in low-carbon business andfinancial products
Introduction of carbon tax based on emission reduction
target and emissions trading system
Introduction/diffusion of public announcement system(Low-Carbon Organization of the Year)

Announcement of long-term tax rate changes, establishment and review of reduction targets

Adoption of flexible tax measures

Negotiation for introduction of international scheme

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

53

低炭素英文.indd 53

08.6.20 17:32:43

6

Swift and Smooth Logistics
Future Objectives
Thorough Removal of Waste by SCM
The idea and practice of “supply chain management” are widely accepted to optimize the overall business processes,
where the flow of commodities from source of supply to final demand (consumption) including procurement ofmaterials and parts, inbound logistics, production, outbound logistics and sales is captured as a “supply chain”. In SCM,
information is shared and managed jointly among companies participating in supply chains using advanced information
communication technology. Through this, supply and demand are synchronized to promote reduction of inventoryof goods and goods-in-process and swift flow of materials. As a result, production of unnecessary items are limited,
thereby making industries more efficient.

Enhancement of Infrastructure for Railroad and Marine Logistics and Realization of Seamless Logistics Networks
Large-scale cargo logistic networks by ships and railroad between major centers are fully developed, and systems
and infrastructures are constructed to enable smooth cargo transfer between different transportation modes at major
unloading sites. As a result, long-distance logistics networks with low-carbon emissions and high efficiency are in place.

Local Logistics by High-efficiency Vehicles
Local logistics are based on motorized and hybrid cargo vehicles. Within central areas of urban cities, trolleys are also
actively employed for collection and distribution of goods.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic StepsSCM Promotion Period
For realization of overall optimization of business process following the introduction of SCM, it is necessary for all
related companies to share necessary information. However, in some cases, due the cost of system introduction andresistance against the presentation of internal company information to other companies, only a limited number ofcompanies participate to result in insufficient optimization. Therefore, cases of SCM will be evaluated in an investmentversus-result format, and superior cases will be announced. At the same time, the introduction of systems for sharing
SCM on a network will be supported to decentralize and lower the investment expenses in order to enable participationof small- and medium-sized businesses. Furthermore, by implementing strategic approaches for rending the Japan-borne
intra-and inter-business standards of electronic information into international standards, system cost will be reduced,
further promoting their diffusion.

Infrastructure Preparation Period
Various systems will be introduced to remove barriers among multiple transportation means, such as development andunification of new railroad containers with identical dimensions as the international standard (ship containers). At thesame time, public subsidies will be given for construction of necessary infrastructures such as expansion of freightrailways and terminals, purchasing of carrier trucks and expansion of container yard for empty containers at ports. Also,
various tax reductions will be performed on railroad and shipping real estate tax among others. These measures willencourage infrastructure construction of arterial networks for cargos.

Low-Carbon Logistics Realization Period
By broadening the scope of target for Top-Runner Law to include not only all automobile vehicles but also othertransportation modes, the efficiency of all logistics transport modes will be continuously improved. Moreover, in orderto enhance the competitiveness of low-carbon logistic modes, imposed taxation will be proportionate to the percentage
of carbon content of the transportation energy used. As well, by supporting diffusion of a real-time browsing systemfor vacancy conditions, CO2 emissions, cost, lead-time, etc., of each available logistics mode, and by promoting
widespread use of labeling systems such as Eco Rail Mark, “visualization” of greenhouse gas emissions caused bycargo transport will be advanced further, thereby providing cargo owners with an environment in which they can easily
obtain information for selecting an appropriate logistics modes and companies.

54

低炭素英文.indd 54

08.6.20 17:32:43

Contribution of Manufacturing and Logistics Industries

Contribution of Cargo Owners

Active introduction of SCM to strengthen partnerships
with other related companies. Presentation of allnecessary information for overall optimization.

Selection of transportation means with as low CO2
emissions as possible.

Infrastructure
Preparation
SCM Promotion
PeriodBarriers

A limited number ofcompanies
participate in SCM

Low-Carbon Logistics Realization Period

Disclosure of CO2 emissions for all logistics companies
Completion of infrastructure construction for cargo arterial networks

Evaluation of SCM investment versus result, announcementof superior cases

FutureObjectives

Thoroughremovalof waste by SCM

Support for lowering the SCM introduction expenses
Insufficient
infrastructure for
cargo
transportation
Lack of incentives
for realizing lowcarbon logistics

Promotion of standardization of Japanese electronic informationtransfer system

Infrastructureenhancement
for railroad &marine logistics

Unification of the standards for containers
Realization of
seamless logistics
networks

Support for development of infrastructures

Property tax reductions on railroad and ship

Local logistics
by high-efficiency
vehiclesCarbon tax imposed on transportation energy

Promotion of awareness for emissions of each logistics
transportation mode
Broadening the coverage of top-runner system and lowcarbonization of logistics mode
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

55

低炭素英文.indd 55

08.6.20 17:32:45

7

Pedestrian Friendly
City Design

Future Objectives
Public Transport Linking Central Urban Areas
Facilities with high frequency of usage are located within central urban areas, while others with low frequency of usage
are located somewhat away from those areas, assuring convenient city structures in each region. In addition, the central
areas of all regions are connected with each other by public transportation networks, allowing for convenient use of
public transportation.

Safe Walking Areas
Areas open to pedestrians and cyclists throughout the day are established in many sections of cities and suburbs. Since
through traffic of cars and trucks are prohibited within these areas, persons in wheelchair and “senior car” (electric
assistant scooter) can safely and comfortably travel.

Lightweight Electric Passenger Vehicles
Automobile vehicles are primarily driven in areas with relatively low-density land use, being used in combination withpublic transportation, park-and-ride, shared-taxi, carsharing and other approaches. Moreover, the standard types ofvehicles are motor driven cars with batteries or fuel cells. The energy storage devices (secondary batteries, hydrogenstorage devices) for these electric vehicles are highly advanced. This, together with the lightening of car bodies realized
by the development of high-tensile steel, has greatly improved the operational energy efficiency of these cars. Many ofthe battery-car users perform quick charging at home, but there are some users who frequently use an exchange service
for pre-charged car batteries for convenience.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Planning Period
In order to make citizens understand the public nature of land and to carry out city planning that is based on a medium
to long term perspective, in cooperation with the citizens, the government needs to establish a plan for land use andtransportation with a clear statement about the shift towards concentrated land use appropriate for a low-carbon
society and declining population. In addition, through establishing it as the master plan for city planning and as acomprehensive plan, improvements on land use and transportation infrastructure, that reflect low-carbon perspective,
will be made. Moreover, in order to promote the widespread use of motor driven cars, researches will be performed
to develop energy storage devices (high-efficiency secondary batteries, hydrogen storage devices, etc.) and lighter car
bodies as well as to improve the efficiency of public transportation.

City Structure Reform Period
Special tax reduction measures will be introduced to central urban areas to induce effective land use and to accumulate
facilities with high frequency of usage in areas within close proximity of public transportation. In addition, by adopting
the vertical separation method that separates construction and maintenance of infrastructure from its operation, financial
support will be distributed to many regional cities to promote introduction of commercial Light Rail Transit (LRT) andso forth. Moreover, for transportation by car, incentives for low-carbonization will be given to car owners in various
aspects including the introduction of the green tax system, that promotes selection of vehicles with low environmentalload throughout their lifecycle, as well as the establishment of priority lanes and parking spaces for these cars. For
widely popular motor driven cars, strategies will be formed to ensure the supply of necessary amount of rare metals forsecondary batteries, fuel cells and motors, while simultaneously conducting researches for alternative materials.

Permeation Period
In some areas, the possibility for realizing a low-carbon community will become clear, and its charm will attract people
to move into the areas when they need to rebuild their houses, thereby forming concentrated residential areas. Regarding
means of personal transportation, reduction in size and weight of the devices will improve further, expanding the market
shares of such intra-urban transportation means as electric cars, electric wheelchairs, electric assisted bicycles andi-REAL.

56

低炭素英文.indd 56

08.6.20 17:32:45

Contribution of Citizens

Contribution of Retailers

Participation in the planning and execution ofa medium to long term plans for land use andtransportation that are appropriate for a low-carbon
society.

Active participation in reforming and process ofshifting to central urban areas.

Planning Period

City Structure
Reform Period

Use of public transportation system : +10%
Foot and other means : +10%
Average distance of travel by car : -10%

Barriers

Lack of consideration
for low-carbonizationin city planning

Costs including land
usage fees arecheaper in suburbs

Economic aspectsof publictransportation

Various issues
regarding motor
driven cars
Lack ofcompetitivenessagainst gasolinepowered cars

Permeation Period

FutureObjectives

Creation and implementation of a master plan for low-carbon city
planning by municipalities and citizens

Public transport
linking central
urban areas

Introduction of tax systems to promote the effective use ofcentral urban areas
Safe walking
areas
Introduction of the vertical separation method (infrastructure
construction by the government and assistance on its cost)

R&D support and investment for development of high-efficiency
secondary batteries and lighter vehicle bodies

Lightweight
electric passenger
vehiclesRare metal stock assessment
Resources supply assurance, development ofrecycling technologies
Green tax system to promote diffusion of vehicles withlow environmental load, strengthening of fuel regulation

Introduction and expansion of priority lanes and parking lots
for vehicles with low environmental load

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

57

低炭素英文.indd 57

08.6.20 17:32:47

8

Low-Carbon Electricity
Future Objectives
Low Loss and Low Environmental Impact
In both coal-fired and natural gas power generations, combined cycles of ultra-supercritical turbines have become
standard, achieving efficiency of over 55% in all power plants. There are also large-scale, advanced power plants thathave achieved more than 60% efficiency. In addition, carbon capture and storage (CCS) equipments are installed toprevent as much CO2 discharge into the outside air as possible. As such, the efficient systems for converting primaryenergy into secondary energy have become widely diffused.

Grid network for Enhanced Utilization of Renewable Energy
Together with large-scale solar power generators and wind power generators, output power leveling equipments such asbatteries and hydrogen generators are installed to control their influences on the power system to a certain degree.

Appropriate Utilization of Nuclear Energy
Nuclear power plants are established based on agreements made between the government, electric companies and thecitizens while taking into account the likely changes in the demand for and supply of electricity as well as developmentof other power-generating technologies. With mandatory requirement for total disclosure of safety-related information,
appropriate waste management is carried out. Taking into account the perspective for the prevention of international
nuclear proliferation, maintenance and operation are performed at the appropriate levels.

Energy Transport Network without Loss
For the central transmission grid within a jurisdiction area, ultra-high voltage transmission grid capable of transmitting 1
million volts is laid out. For transmission lines among electric power companies and between nuclear power generation
facilities and places of high demand, extra-high voltage direct-current transmission is employed to reduce as muchtransmission loss as possible.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Shared Future Vision Period
Through partnerships among the government, electric companies and consumers, a system for having discussion on
and sharing perspectives about the appropriate power supply over a medium-to-long term will be constructed. Basedon these discussions, industries, academic sector, the government and the civilian sector will, in a collaboration witheach other, promote the development of various technologies (ultra-supercritical turbines, ultra-high voltage electricity
supply technology, CCS with low loss, technologies for management of electricity quality and so forth) that are
essential for realizing the future objectives. Simultaneously, supply of low-carbon electricity will be prescribed by somepolitical measures such as guidelines and incentives to actors other than the pre-existing electric companies for entry
and cooperation. Regarding nuclear power generation, the operation and maintenance practice in cooperation withsafety-assurance organizations and under the watch of appropriate information disclosure system will be strengthened.
Moreover, efforts will be made to achieve proper awareness of nuclear power generation among the general publicthrough communication with non-specialists. Furthermore, concerning the burden share of maintenance fees for
quality electricity caused by introduction of renewable energy, the fee charging system for electricity will be reviewed
thoroughly so as to pass on the maintenance fees to consumers while minimizing its influence on those with low
income.

Low-Carbon Power Needs Expansion Period
To enable individuals to directly select an electric company, revisions will be made in the regulatory regime. At thesame time, taxation systems related to electricity will be modified to become pro-environment. Through this, needs
for low-carbon electricity among consumers will increase, resulting in added values of low-carbon power plants andtransmission loss reduction. Technological developments will take place to realize practical applications of the CCS
technology, ultra-high efficiency power generating technology and ultra-high voltage transmission technology roughly
during this period. Based on long term guidelines, at the timing of upgrading infrastructure equipments of the powersystems, electric companies will make progress on conversion to transmission lines with low loss, introduction oflong distance direct current power lines as well as on capacity expansion of the transmission systems, thereby creating
electricity distribution networks that are with low energy loss and can readily accept renewable energies.
58

低炭素英文.indd 58

08.6.20 17:32:47

Low-Carbon Power Supply Period
At the same time as promoting the diffusion of various highly efficient technologies that have been developed andverified until now, CO2 reduction technologies will be introduced to all of the newly-built power plants.

Contribution of Power Companies

Contribution of Power Consumers

Stable nuclear power management and thoroughinformation disclosure regarding the upper limit ofrenewable energy introduction.

Selection of low-carbon electricity.

SharedFuturePeriodLow-Carbon Power
Needs Expansion
PeriodLow-Carbon Power Supply Period

Lack of mechanism
to pass on thecosts to create andintroduce high-efficiency
technologies
Verification ofstorage stability
and safety throughCO2 storage test
Loss caused byexisting powertransmission
networks
Influence on qualityof power systems
due to installed
renewable energy
facilities

FutureObjectives

Realization of zero-emission
power generation

Barriers

Agreement on the necessity of low-carbon power supply(prescribed by political measures)

Low energy loss &low environmental
impactFundamental review of charging system for power andcost allocation among different consumer groups
Grid network
for utilization ofrenewable energy

Introduction of system for selection of electric company
by individuals

Development and safety evaluation of CCS technology

Appropriate
Utilization of
nuclear energy

Promotion of CCS installation to thermal
power generation stations
Technology development for ultra-high voltage transmission andextra-efficient power generation

Energy transport
network
without loss

Staged high-voltage transmission network

Expansion of distribution capacity

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
59

低炭素英文.indd 59

08.6.20 17:32:49

9

Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand

Future Objectives
Life Supported by the Sun
Low cost photovoltaic systems are installed in all residences and buildings. Since they are designed not to spoil theaesthetic aspect, it is possible to install them on various parts of buildings including the roof, walls and windows. In
many cases, photovoltaic are installed in not only residences and buildings but also in fallow lands for the purpose of
selling the generated power.

Regional Symbol Wind PowerOn land, installation of large scale windmills have become common practice at locations with favorable wind conditions
including the coastlines, plateaus, arable lands, and grazing lands. Having been introduced with serious consideration
for the eco-system, in some regions they have become regional symbols. On the oceans, large scale ocean wind farms
comprising relatively large windmills are in place, converting the generated energy into a storable and transportableform such as hydrogen which then is collected regularly.

Local Production and Consumption of Renewable Energy
Solar power generators and wind power generators are equipped with energy storage devices, enabling stable electricity
supply. A part of generated electricity is used for the hydrogen production, which in turn is supplied to fuel cells inresidences and offices and even to fuel cell vehicles. Also, beyond individual energy storage systems, some regions havetheir own electricity supply systems that adjust demand and supply of electricity within the regions by joint utilizationof solar, wind, biomass, hydrogen, geothermal power generations as well as small and medium scale hydropower. As aresult, the volume of power generation from renewable energy has reached approximately 15%-20% of total electricity
demand.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Cost Reduction Period
For the diffusion of renewable energy including solar power generation and wind power generation, various kindsof technology development programs will be reinforced in order to address the greatest immediate challenge of cost
reduction. Also, for cost reduction to realize, scale merits of mass diffusion is also effective. To support this end,
electric companies’ purchasing price for generated electricity (or excess electricity) from renewable source will be
increased. Installation will be supported further by ensuring the purchasing price at the time of installation for a fixed
period (e.g., 15-25 years). Even though the purchasing price will be reduced annually due to reduction of various
system costs, reductions will be performed following a clear announcement of long-term changes in the purchasing
price so that renewable energy generation companies can make safe capital investment. On the other hand, the large
scale introduction of renewable energy may possibly cause influence on voltage and frequency of power systems.
Thus, technology development for storing energy will be promoted to support the establishment of electricity storage
technology and hydrogen production technology that are low in cost, small in size and high in quality. Furthermore,certain amount of subsidies will be given to electric companies when they enhance electric lines and make other capital
investments to improve quality of power systems. At the same time, publicity activities will be performed to promote
public understanding of passing on the additional maintenance costs of high quality electricity to consumers throughelectricity charges.

Autonomous and grid-independent System Diffusion Period
For new installation of solar power generators and wind power generators, while making it mandatory to install themin combination with energy storage systems, subsidies will be given for installation of the energy storage systems. By
doing so, diffusion of autonomous and grid-independent system for renewable energy generation will be promoted
while minimizing its influence on existent power systems.

60

低炭素英文.indd 60

08.6.20 17:32:49

System Integration Period
In addition to the individual energy storage systems equipped onto solar power generators and wind power generators,
deliberations will be made as to what the most appropriate combination may be with other distributed power sources
and hydrogen energy systems, while taking into account the regional climate as well as local energy demand and supply.
By supporting the construction of an appropriate electric power supply network in each region to accommodate local
electricity generation, efforts will be made to reduce the overall system cost.
Contribution at Home and Buildings

Contribution of Power Companies

Active introduction of renewable energy (e.g., solar
power generation).

Taking into account the possible expansion ofrenewable energy when enhancing electric powersystems.

Cost Reduction Period

System Integration Period

Power generation by renewable energy :15-20% of electricity demand

Barriers

Compared to otherelectric sources,
the cost of power
generation is highAutonomous
SystemDiffusion Period

FutureObjectives

Strengthening of technology development for renewable energyLife supportedby the sun
Strengthening of renewable energy purchasing system

Influence on qualityof power systems(voltage/frequency)
The cost of energy
storage system,
varioustechnological issues

Regional symbol
wind power
Promotion of public understanding regarding passing
on the maintenance costs to electricity charges
Local production& consumption ofrenewable energy

Introduction of subsidies for infrastructure construction tomaintain quality of power systems

Technological development of energy storage systems
Mandatory installation of energy storage
system with solar/wind power generators

Subsidies for installation of energy storage system

Support for construction of
local electricity network
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
61

低炭素英文.indd 61

08.6.20 17:32:51

N
ext Generation Fuels
10
Future Objectives : Hydrogen
Dominance of Low-Carbon Hydrogen
In addition to by-product hydrogen generated by industrial processes, hydrogen is produced at reforming plants with
CCS and by electrolysis at ocean wind farms. The production methods that do not cause greenhouse gas emissions havebecome dominant. In addition, the hydrogen produced is transported mainly through pipelines to be used for logistics,
power supply adjustment and fuel for fuel cells.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps : Hydrogen
Planning and Verification Period
With future hydrogen demand in mind, plans will be made for hydrogen supply and production center allocations, taking
into account the regions with high demand so that the necessary infrastructures can be minimized. First, some areasin which the use of hydrogen is relatively easier will be chosen; they need to have pre-existing hydrogen production
facilities, such as by-product hydrogen source from some existing plants. Within these limited areas, necessary
infrastructures for hydrogen transportation and storage will be constructed, and supply of hydrogen will be commenced.
As one of the supply destinations, fuel cell buses will be in operation around these regions. Simultaneously, hydrogenutilization technologies will be improved further to achieve lower cost and higher efficiency. Furthermore, based on thehydrogen supply plan, support will be given to the development of technologies that are necessary from a long-term
perspective, including hydrogen production from renewable energy, hydrogen storage and transportation technologies.

Expanded Introduction Period
At the same time as expanding the hydrogen-supply areas based on the hydrogen production center allocation plan,
support will be given to encourage the connectivity among these areas. For example, public funding will be provided
for preparation of infrastructures for arterial hydrogen transport pipelines between a hydrogen production center andlarge consumption areas. On the other hand, low-carbon hydrogen production will be made dominant by introducing
financial incentives such as preferential tax measures according to the emission units of hydrogen produced.

Planning andVerification Period

Expanded Introduction Period
Volume of hydrogen supplied:
100 billion Nm 3

Barriers

High costs ofhydrogenproduction, storage,transportation,utilization

FutureObjectives

Establishment of hydrogen center allocation plan and supply plan
Dominance of
low-carbonhydrogen

Verification tests in certain regions
Support for technology development basedon hydrogen supply plan
Public funding to infrastructure construction
for hydrogen supply
Financial incentives such as preferential tax
measures

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

62

低炭素英文.indd 62

08.6.20 17:32:52

Future Objectives : Biofuel
Stable Supply of Biofuels
Biomass production and utilization plans suitable for each region are created, and food, lumber, animal feed and soforth are produced according to the plans. At the same time, the waste-type biomass generated within each region is
also utilized to the full extent. Although shortfall within Japan is covered by importation from overseas, an international
agreement on the management of biomass resources is concluded to ensure pro-environmental production method
and low environmental load. In cases where liquid fuels are desired, as in fuels for logistics, liquid fuels derived frombiomass are used on a priority basis. Moreover, the market share of bioenergy for heat and electricity is on the increase.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps : Biofuel
Utilization Expansion, Cost Reduction Period
Although expansion of biomass utilization is sought in many regions, the high costs of collecting and transporting
the materials and energy conversion make it difficult. To add to that, the existing restrictions hinder the utilization of
low quality bioenergy and energy production by mixed processing of biomass. Along with lowering of the costs andrelaxing of the regulations, it is necessary to assure that energy is supplied in a sustainable way by the use of Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA) methods and so forth.

Expanded Introduction Period
The synergy between a region’s agricultural and forestry plan and energy demand/supply plan will be strengthened.
Through zoning with consideration for land application, the self-sufficiency for food, lumber and energy of the region
will be increased, thereby introducing an additional value of local sustainability to the products. Development and cost
reduction of biomass-conversion technologies should be performed on a perspective that includes biomass utilization in
not only Japan but entire Asia. Although shortfall within Japan is covered by importation from overseas, support will begiven for construction of an international framework to properly evaluate the environmental load during the production
processes.

Utilization Expansion,
Cost Reduction Period

Expanded Introduction Period
Percentage of biomass supply
in primary energy : 10%

Barriers

FutureObjectives

Establishment of regional plans for promotion of biomass utilization
A standstillbioenergy use
within Japan

Unstable
importation of
bioenergy

Stable supplyof biofuels

Relaxation of regulations and cost reduction in certain regions
Stronger synergy between plans for
agriculture/forestry and regional energy, proper zoning
Support for construction of international framework
Development and cost reduction of biomass conversion
technology with Asia-wide perspective

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

63

低炭素英文.indd 63

08.6.20 17:32:53

11

Labeling to Encourage Smartand Rational Choices

Future Objectives
Visualization of Energy-saving Efficiency
For residences and offices, digital meters (smart meters) for electricity and gas usage are introduced widely, enabling
accurate and real-time calculation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions for usage of each device. In addition,
all newly-built houses and offices come with LCS navigation system. Besides performing automatic control of airconditioning and lighting equipments, this system displays obtained information in a user-friendly way, providing
advices for enhanced energy savings and CO2 reduction in accordance with the activity pattern and lifestyle of eachconsumer. Many of these systems are provided in combination with various services including functions for assuring
security and comfort of the elderly and monitoring functions for security at homes and offices.

Visualization of Environmental Information of Products
At the time of purchasing a product, consumers can retrieve easy-to-read information regarding each product’s environmental
efficiency (such as lifecycle environmental load) and various merits of selecting the product by scanning its tag usinga mobile terminal. Moreover, for electric appliances, their operational conditions are sent to their manufacturers via a
network so that the owners can receive appropriate directions (advices for repairs, upgrading, disposal methods, etc.)from the manufacturers.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Foundation Preparation Period
In order to achieve widespread installation of smart meters that form the foundation for the LCS navigation system, aclear diffusion target (such as installation to all residences and offices within 5 years, etc.) will be established, followedby publicity campaigns to consumers and financial support for introduction costs to electricity companies. On the other
hand, in collaboration with retailers including convenience stores, supermarkets, co-ops and electronic stores, displayingof lifecycle environmental load information (carbon labeling) will be done on those products for which information canbe easily obtained (such as products designed by the retailers). At the same time, manufacturers willing to participate
in these systems will be recruited widely to steadily increase the range of products for displaying environmental
information, thereby progressing the accumulation of necessary data and know-how for labeling. For the system
planning, standards for the calculation method for environmental load and the details of labeling display will becreated. Furthermore, a carbon labeling certification system operated by a third party will be in place to ensure that theconsumers can compare environmental loads of multiple products with unified indices.

System Introduction and Integration Period
For development of the LCS navigation system that integrates and displays various information, it is crucial tothoroughly comprehend the needs of the users from the developmental stage. Thus, potential system users will beselected for hearing sessions to grasp their needs. Based on these needs, discussion sessions for a number of developers,
experts and users will be held. Based on the specifications determined in these sessions, system developers will be
recruited openly. While giving incentives for developing the system to the system developers by grasping the needsof users and ensuring a certain level of demand, efforts will be made to pursue the realization of system designs
with desired functions, price, and entertainment features. Furthermore, for home electronics and office equipments,
manufacturers will be obligated to equip their products with an information communication function to transmit
environmental information, and the unification of systems will be promoted so that information of all equipments will
be available on the LCS navigation system.

Incentive Introduction Period
Through utilization of the carbon labeling system and LCS navigation system, the government and companies
will introduce incentive systems for reduction of environmental load of individuals and businesses. The resulting
enhancement in environmental awareness among individuals and businesses will then permeate low-carbon lifestyles
and business-styles.

64

低炭素英文.indd 64

08.6.20 17:32:53

Contribution of System Users

Contribution of System Developers

Active introduction of LCS navigation system,
practicing low-carbon lifestyle.

Develop a product that matches users’ demand.

Foundation
Preparation
PeriodSystemIntroduction/
Integration Period

Introduction rate of LCS Navigation
System in home and office : 100%

Barriers

Data collection ofenergyconsumption andCO2 emissions foreach activity

Incentive Introduction Period

Promotion for widespread use of smart meters(publicity campaigns, financial support for installation)

Visualization ofenergy-saving
efficiency

Planning and development of technologicalfeatures of LCS navigation system

Integration of dataon energy
consumption andCO2 emissions
from various
devices

FutureObjectives

Visualization ofenvironmental
information of
products

Obligation of IC device installation on home
appliances and office equipments

Empirical introduction of carbon labeling and recruitingof companies for participation

Standardization of product environmental information,
introduction of carbon labeling certification

Introduction of incentives for environmentalload reduction based on visualization

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

65

低炭素英文.indd 65

08.6.20 17:32:54

12

Low-Carbon Society
Leadership

Future Objectives
Nurturing of Specialists
With the number of researchers and specialists of global warming who belong to a university, graduate school orresearch institute reaching nearly ten thousand, understanding about countermeasure technologies against global
warming have advanced. Moreover, “low-carbon advisors” are professionally active in the society; they have extensive
knowledge about global warming and provide multifaceted advices to reduce CO2 emissions at home and in businessactivities. The number of persons with this certification exceeds fifty thousand.

Sharing of Knowledge and Information
The basic knowledge of global warming and its various countermeasures are disseminated to persons of all generations
through environmental education at school, training sessions at companies and so forth. In addition, all types of media
including TV broadcasting and newspapers always provide new information such as findings gained through the latest
researches. Other than that, by organizing various environmental events and online information exchanges regarding practiceof eco-life, information and knowledge for establishing a low carbon lifestyle and business-style are being shared to a greater
extent.

Permeation of Low-Carbon Lifestyle and Business-style
It has become natural for even the general public to have correct science-based awareness about global warming and topractice a low-carbon lifestyle or business-style based on that knowledge. Furthermore, an increasing number of people aremaking voluntary actions to realize a low-carbon society, actively participating in city planning and local administration of
their own and neighborhood regions.

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps
Education Style Establishment Period
Educational materials and curricula will be created to match the age of learners. Moreover, to cause child-to-parent
and child-to-sibling spill-over effect of dissemination of environmental awareness, educational programs that requireparticipation of parents and children will be developed. On the other hand, to improve the knowledge level among
teachers, a subject related to environmental problems will be added to the employment examination for teachers, inaddition to organizing environmental training sessions for teachers. To construct the certification system for low-carbon
society advisors, experts will be gathered for discussions. In cooperation with NGOs and companies, provision ofproper information to the general public will be achieved through holding of environmental events and training sessions
as well as construction of websites for providing and exchanging information.

Environmental Education Permeation Period
In educational institutions from elementary, junior-high to senior-high schools, environmental education will become
a compulsory subject, implementing various educational programs. Along with the introduction of certification system
for low-carbon society advisors, special courses for obtaining the certification will be established in universities andgraduate schools. Furthermore, for companies, hiring of a certain number of low-carbon society advisor certification
holders will be mandatory, and directions will be given to make all the employees attend sessions by low-carbon
advisors regularly.

Stable Education Effect Period
The need for countermeasures against environmental problems will permeate to the citizens, and when introducing
a new countermeasure, effective and appropriate education and publicity activities will be performed. Educational
materials will be continuously revised based on new findings. Furthermore, in order to assure continuous interest of
the citizens in environmental problems, opportunities will be provided for them to have discussions on environmental
education, environmental administration and so forth.

66

低炭素英文.indd 66

08.6.20 17:32:55

Contribution of Schools, Companies and NGOs

Contribution of Citizens

Transmission of information based on the latest
scientific findings. Innovations to assure continued
interest in environmental problems.

Continuous interest in and sharing of information on
environmental problems. Voluntary participation increation of a low carbon society.

Education Style
Establishment

Environmental Education
Permeation Period

Low-carbon society
advisors : 50,000 people

Barriers

Lack of know-how
for implementing
effective
environmental
education program

Development of various education programs and analysisof their effectivenessLow environmental
awareness incompany
management

FutureObjectives

Nurturing ofspecialists

Development of educational materials and curricula appropriate
for learners’ age

Insufficient
provision of
information to
citizens
Insufficientknowledge of andeducation forenvironment among
teachers

Stable Education
Effect Period Period

Sharing of
knowledge &Information

Compulsory environment class from elementary
to senior-high school

Holding of environmental events and sessions
Permeation of
low-carbon
lifestyle

Addition of environmental subject to employment
examination for teachers
Implementation of environmental training sessions for teachers

Permeation of
low-carbon
business-stylePlanning and introduction of low-carbon society advisors
certification
Mandatory hiring of low-carbon society advisors

Establishment of courses for low-carbon society
advisor in universities
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

67

低炭素英文.indd 67

08.6.20 17:32:56

Japan Scenarios and Actions towards
Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

2050 CO2 Emission

Included inothers

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

4

Industry

●

24

42

●

13

13

●

●

●

●

14

38

●

●

●

●

16

9

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

5

28

●

●

●

●

●

23

17

●

●

●

●

77

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

+)

24

65

34

40

16

230

24

63

35
5
23

Transportation

62
Energysupplysector

40

40

230

* Unit of number in the table is MtC.

June 2008

June 2008“2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario teamNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES),
Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University,and Mizuho Information and Research Institute

82

34

+)

● : Sector in which actions contribute reduction directly: Sector in which actions contribute reduction indirectly.
□ : Sector in which reduction by actions is included under "Change of activity"

21

13
14

Residential &commercial

35

7

21
4

40

Improvement of
Improvement ofenergy intensity
carbon intensity
Energy demand sector●□

Changeof activity

Energy supply
sector●21

Reductionof demand<Scenario B>●

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

95 - 812050 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand
Energy demand sector
Improvement ofenergy intensity

70% reduction

Energy supply sector
Improvement of
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
carbon intensity

2000 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

12
Low Carbon Society Leadership1990 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2排出量

11Labeling to Encourage Smart andrational Choices

Energy36 supply
sectorCCS
77

10
Next Generation Fuels

52

77

9
Local Renewable Resources for Local
Demand41

Transportation

Low-Carbon Electricity

17

□

8

44 - 45

30 - 35 (+ α)●7Pedestrian Friendly City Design28

Swift and Smooth Logistics

60

6

Environmentally Enlightened Businessand Industry

Residential &commercial

5

●

10

38

4
Sustainable Building Materials

Change 66
1 of activity
24
1
10 Industry
35
13
24

9
7

36

Promoting Seasonal Local Food

90

3

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate
Appliances6256 - 48<Scenario A>

21

1
Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

Global Environmental Research Fund (GERF/S-3-1)
Japan-UK Joint Research Project “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society (LCS)”