Preliminary study on

SUSTAINABLE LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENTTOWARDS 2030 IN

VIETNAM

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model TeamGCOE on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities—Kyoto University
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Preface
This report is completed by Kyoto University researchers along with the collaboration of
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan.
The objective of designing Asian Low Carbon Societies (LCS) is to avoid dangers by global
climate change. Up to now, we have approached this problem with integrated assessment
methodology, in which we proposed a systematic design methodology of future LCS towards the designed future by the tool namely, Extend Snapshot Tool (ExSS). We preparedthis Low Carbon Society (LCS) report which aims to show the possibility of developing Vietnam into Low Carbon society.
This pamphlet is also intended to (i) introduce the preliminary study on LCS in Vietnam towards 2030 by using ExSS tool, and (ii) expect the collaboration with related experts, researchers, authorities and community to contribute building a LCS in Vietnam
This preliminary results, we hope, not only will give the readers an idea of a LCS scenario
in general and Vietnam in particular, but also would guide effective transition towards a LCS
in Vietnam.

Authors
NGUYEN Thai Hoa (Kyoto University)
Kei GOMI (Kyoto University)
Yuzuru MATSUOKA (Kyoto University)
TRAN Thanh Tu (Kyoto University)
Junichi FUJINO (NIES)
Mikiko KAINUMA (NIES)
Ram Manohar SHRESTHA (AIT)

2

Contents

Executive summary

6

About Vietnam

8

Concept of “Low-carbon society”

10

Energy Policy and Sustainable Development in Vietnam

11

Socio-economic assumption in 2030

12Energy demand and GHG emission in 2030

14

Potential Mitigation of Vietnam in 2030

16

Five “Actions” towards LCS

17

Action 1. Convenient Transport

18

Action 2. Green Building

20

Action 3. Energy Efficiency Improvement

21

Action 4. Fuel Switch in Industry

22

Action 5. Smart Power Plants

23

Methodology

24

Data tables

26

References

27

3

Executive summary
This study, towards a low carbon society for
Vietnam, is carried out for the following
main sectors, namely: residential, commercial, industrial, passenger and freight transport sectors.
The methodology involves (i) deducing theinventory of socio-economic, energy andGreen House Gases (GHGs) emission in CO2
equivalent of Vietnam in baseline year 2005,
and (ii) quantifying socio-economic activity
level in 2030 according to national development objectives.
Most of energy information used in this estimation were referred from IEA1.
Based on the projection of development, Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) estimates theamount of GHG emissions in two scenario (1)2030 BaU (Business as Usual-without mitigation measures) and (2) 2030 CM (WithCounter Mitigation measures) assumptionsof employed innovation technologies as wellas other low-carbon measures available by2030 to reduce the GHG emissions.
In the base year, 2005, per capita CO2 emis-

sion from energy consumption in Vietnam is
0.97 t-CO2. In 2030, this number will increase
to 4.5 t-CO2 under the BaU scenario.
Currently, the total GHG emission is approximately 80.9 million t-CO2 (2005). Under the2030 BaU scenario GHGs emission increase
to 446 million t-CO2 or about 5.5 times
higher than 2005. In which, GHGs emission
from residential sector was 53.9 million tCO2, occupied 12.1% of total national emission, commercial sector: 47.8 million t-CO2,
occupied 10.7%, industry: 210.3 million tCO2, occupied 47.1%, passenger and freighttransportation: 59.7 million t-CO2 and 74.7
million t-CO2, occupied 13.4% and 16.7% respectively.
However, in 2030 CM scenario, by adopting
the mitigation options available by 2030, theemissions can be decreased approximately
45% and suppressed to 250 million t-CO2,
and 2.5 t-CO2 per capita. A box of countermeasures are shown in Figure 1.

500

45% reduction
Emission reduction

GHG emissions/reductions (Mt-CO2)

450
400
350
300

5.5 times

250
446

200

50

Industry energy efficienct improvement
20.4 mil t-CO2
Energy efficient business appliance15.6 mil t-CO2
Power supply sector
36.9 mil t-CO2
Fuel shift of all sectors
65.6 mil t-CO2

150
245

100

Energy efficient home appliance10.3 mil t-CO2

Energy efficient vehicle
31.6 mil t-CO2
Modal shift
16.1 mil t-CO2

81

CO2 Emission0
2005

BaU 2030

CM 2030

Figure 1. GHG emissions and mitigations by countermeasures.
IEA1.International Energy Agencies4

To develop a low carbon society for Vietnam,a package of green growth policies is formulated based on National Development Plan,
Nation Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Programme, Renewable Energy Programme aswell (Figure 2). This policy package encompasses several optimal solutions such as fuelswitch of the fossil fuel, promotion of renew-

able energy, improvement of energy efficiency of energy using equipments andbuilding, increasing use of public transportand developing traffic management system,
improvement of power supply sector, promotion of Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) projects.

Table 1. Estimated socio-economic indicators in 2030 in Vietnam
2005

2030

2030/2005

Population (million people)

83,1

99,3

1.2

No. of households (million)

25,2

33,1

1.3

GDP (trillion VND)

818.5

4,182.5

5.1

1,933.6

10,404.8

5.4

Primary industry (trillion VND)

261.0

1,068.9

4.1

Secondary industry (trillion VND)

1,176.0

6,675.4

5.7

Tertiary industry (trillion VND)

496.6

2,660,561

5.4

Passenger transport demand (mil p-km)

57,696

518,785

9.0

Freight transport demand (mil t-km)

100,728

1,085,643

10.8

Gross output (trillion VND)

Low carbon
society policy

Governance & Financing

Transportation- Transport management
system- Traffic behavior - shift tozero carbon transport- Investment in public transport infrastructure- Fuel switch- Land use planning

Residential & Commercial
sectors- Life-style towards green
environment- Environmental performancestandard and evaluation of
housings & buildings- Low interest loans in investment to energy efficientbuildings

Industry sector- Subsidy in investment toenergy efficiency equipments- Promotion of renewableenergy- Low interest loans to investment to energy efficiency- Promotion of CDM projects

Power sector- Promotion of CDM projects- Reduce own-usage andtransmission lost
- Fuel switch- Promotion of renewableenergy- Low interest loans to investment to energy efficiency

Figure 2. Policy package for Low Carbon Society5About Vietnam
General information
Vietnam is located in Southeast Asia with a
total land area of 331,690 km2 consisting of
thousands of islands and a coast line of approximately 3,260 km. Vietnam climate isunder the influence of tropical monsoon.
Vietnam is known as one of the most populous nations in Southeast Asia and one of themost densely populated nations in theworld. Currently total population is 86.5 million people, growing at a rate of 1.1%. As economic activities become more vigorous,
more people continue to flow into cities, leadto the urbanization rate is around 30.5%.

Figure 3. Traffic in Hanoi city

Macro-economic
Among the N-11 economies1, Vietnam stands
out as having achieved the highest economic
growth in recent years. Vietnam has experienced satisfactory economic growth despite
its economic difficulties during the past decade. In 2005, the GDP grew by over 8.4%. In
which, primary sector contributed 20.7% ,secondary and tertiary sector contributed
40.2% and 39.1%, respectively. The service
sector is becoming an important economic
area for Vietnam. While this economic pros-

pect offers great opportunities for development of the energy sector in Vietnam, it also
raises concerns over the protection of theenvironment. Vietnam’s GDP reached 838
trillion dong ($53 billion), bringing per capita
income to $636 per year, in 2005. According
to the Trade Promotion Department (under
the Ministry of Trade), foreign direct investment (FDI) rose $5.72 billion, an increase of
25% compared to 2004.

Transportation
Current transportation infrastructure is inadequate to meet Vietnam’s rapidly growing
needs. To meet the target of industrialization and modernization of the country, Vietnam determines that transportation is extremely important and should go ahead ofother sectors.
Road transport is the most advanced interms of privatization and handles the largest volume about 65% (2005) of domestic
passenger and freight transports. Road
transport mainly serves the domestic market, while international road transport account for an insignificant share.
Inland waterway transport is very developed
due to the natural endowment of dense riverand canal network, and rank the second
which accounting for 25-30% of total domestic transported volume. Other transportations are contributed by maritime transportation, air transport and railway transport
which accounting for 20% of total transportvolume.

Figure 4. Road transport in sub-urban of Hanoi

1
The Next 11 (N-11) economics including these countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan,Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.

6

EnergyIn the last few years, Vietnam had rich fossil
energy resource such as oil, gas and coal
which are non-renewable energy and also
well-endowed with renewable in the form ofhydropower, biomass and solar energy which
can satisfy the basic needs of energy for theinternal socio-economy development as wellas partially export to other countries. Energy
demand in Vietnam has the average growthrate of 15% for many years in the past, andannual growth rates of approximately 18%
have been predicted for the period of 20102030 by the Vietnam Institute of Energy.
Currently, energy is explored, transformed,
transported and used with low efficiency
while the self-usage and losses rates arehigh. Investments in the energy sector canhave a substantial impact on water quality,
air quality and human health, as experiences

show. It is becoming increasingly importantto address the potential environmental impacts of energy use and policies.
Electricity consumption in Vietnam grew at
15.3% over 2000-2005. The electricity consumption per capita in 2005 was 538 kWh
per year, and is expected to increase up to
about 2350 kWh per year by 2020 and over
3096 kWh per year by 2030 (Electricity ofVietnam, 2006a, 2008a; Institute of Energy,
2006a, 2006b, 2008b).
Total electricity generation capacity in Vietnam in 2007 was 12948 MW, of which Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) facilities accounted
for about 72%, followed by local and foreign
independent power producers (24%) and 4%of power was imported.

Industry and Land use
Most of the industrial zones in Vietnam areconcentrated in three key economic regions,
the North, the Central and the South of Vietnam. By the end of 2008, these three key
economic regions had 149 industrial zones
with the total natural land areas of 49,232
hectares, accounting for 68 percent of thetotal number of industrial zones, and 81 percent of their total natural land areas
The major industries of the country are foodprocessing, garments, machine building, fertilizer, shoes, glass, tires, oil, coal, steel, cement and paper.
Industry and construction make the largest
contribution (over 40%) to the aggregate a
GDP growth rate.
In 2005, export value reached $32.23 billion,
while import value rose to $36.88 billion.
Vietnam's main exports are crude oil, textiles, garments, footwear and aquatic products. Main imports are machinery, equipment, parts and petroleum products.

Figure 5. Song Da concrete enterprise

Figure 6. Residential area in Hanoi city

7Concept of “Low Carbon Society”
What is a “Low Carbon Society” (LCS)?
A low-carbon society (LCS) is a sustainably
developed or developing society on the basicof close, reasonable and harmonious coordination of economic and social development
and environmental protection. On that society, environmental protection will be given
the same level of attention as other socioeconomic development issue.
The concept of a low-carbon society has thefollowing attributes:
1. Take actions that are compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of allgroups within society are met.
2. Make an equitable contribution towards
the global effort to stabilize the atmosphericconcentration of CO2 and other greenhousegases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change, through deep cuts in global
emissions.
3. Demonstrate a high level of energy efficiency and use low-carbon energy sources
and production technologies.
4. Adopt patterns of consumption and behavior that are consistent with low levels ofgreenhouse gas emissions.
A low-carbon society framework has not
merely GHGs emission reduction. It also
helps in achieving national development targets especially effective and sustainable development.

Climate change activities in Vietnam and Why we need LCS?
Vietnam, is one of the poor countries would
be the most seriously affected by climatechange, especially in sea level rise. IPCC
(2007)2 anticipated that the sea level will risefrom 30cm to 1m over the next 100 years(2100). Climate change could not only increase Vietnam’s exposure to extreme
weather but also could cause a yearly capital
loss in Vietnam of up to 17 billion USD(according to World Bank 2008).
Being aware of this danger, Vietnam Government signed the UNFCCC in June 1992 andratified it on 16 November 1994. Vietnam
ratified Kyoto Protocol on 25 September
2002. On 17 October 2005, the Vietnamese
Prime Minister has issued a Directive on theimplementation of Kyoto Protocol to
UNFCCC, which instructs various ministries
and government agencies, as well as provincial/municipal People's Committee, to effectively implement the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Ar2
3

8

ticle 12 of the Kyoto Protocol created CDM toassist developing countries including Viet
Nam in achieving sustainable development.
CDM projects in Viet Nam play an importantrole in sustainable socio-economic development, improvement of people living conditions and poverty reduction through income
and employment generation together withenvironmental protection in the country.
Currently, Vietnam is not obligatorily committed to reduce CO 2 emissions but it haveto achieve sustainable socio-economic development. In the view of long term development, if it does not have any intervention ofabatement countermeasures, Vietnam willcontribute a significant of CO2 emission
which will make global warming worsen.
These changes have direct impact on environment, growth and human in Vietnam. In
order to prevent this peril, socio-economic
development in Vietnam must go hand inhand with low-carbon society’s development.

IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
UNFCCC—United Nation Framework Conventional on Climate Change

Energy Policy and Sustainable Development In Vietnam
Box 1.
National Energy Policy
The national energy development strategies
for the development of socio-economy are as
follows: “Rationally and efficiently exploit
and use national energy resources; ensuresufficient energy supply with continuously
increasing quality, rational price for the socio-economic development, diversify the investment and business types in the energy sector,
gradually form energy market in Vietnam;
promptly, efficiently and stably develop theenergy sector, development goes together
with the improvement in social equity andenvironmental protection”. These strategies
are included:- Strategies for and policies of the Oil and
Gas industry (by Petroleum Law on 9th June
2000 together with Decrees No. 48/2000/
NDCP dated 12 September 2000, Decree No.
34/2001/NDCP dated 6 July 2001 of the Government)- Strategies and policies of the coal industry- The Development Strategies of power sector and Vietnam Electricity Law in the period
2004-2010, oriented to 2020 (approved byGovernment on 5th October 2004)
Sustainable development point of view in the
Vietnam energy policies and strategies
The assessment of the impacts of the Vietnam energy policies and strategies in term ofsustainable development at national levelshould follow the “Vietnam Agenda 21” approved by the State on August, 2004. Essential points of sustainability understandingare:
8 principles for sustainability development
1. Human being is the centre of sustainable
development.
2. Economic development is considered as
the central task in the coming development
period.
3. Protection and improvement of environment quality are to be considered as an inseparable factor from the development process.

4. The development process must equallysatisfy the needs of the current generations
without causing obstacles for the life of future generations.
5. Science and technology is the foundationand the momentum for the country’s industrialization, modernization, quick, strong
and sustainable development.
6. Sustainable development is the cause of
the whole Party, authorities at all levels, theministries, sectors and localities, agencies,
businesses, social organizations, population
communities and the whole people.
7. The establishment of an independent andautonomous economy is tightly attached tothe international economic integration on
basis of self initiative.
8. Social-economic development, environmental protection should be closely combined with guarantee of national defense andsecurity as well as social safety and order.
5 priorities for sustainable energy development
1. Strengthening of legal base and energy
management
2. Selection of appropriate exploration andutilization
3. Research and development of transfer andapplication of clean energy technology
4. Proposal of technological and management solutions for energy types
5. International co-operation in energy.
The viewpoint on National Energy Security
Energy security is one of the issues thatshould come first on the list of priorities innational energy policy. It is necessary to
combine the exploitation and utilization ofhome energy resources with the import ofenergy from stable sources of energy supply,and with the reduction of the dependence on
imported energy of highest sensitivity level,
especially oil products.
Reference: Vietnam Agenda 21 and Report on “Impact
on current energy policies ans energy development in
Vietnam from sustainability point of view”, at Greening
the Business and Making Environment a Business Opportunity Conference, Bangkok, Thailand 20079

Socio-Economic Assumption in 2030
The study considers two scenarios. The BaU(Business as usual) scenario and CM (countermeasure) scenario.
The scenario stories
span the period till 2030.
Based on the current socio-economic devel-

opment, the future economic development in
2030 is estimated. The future picture about
economy, society, commercial, energy andtransport in Vietnam in 2030 is depicted asfollows.

120

1200

100

1000

Population

800

80
60

600

Real GDP

400

40

200

20

0
1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Figure 8. Population and GDP(Source: Global Insight—2005)

Figure 7. Number of household
Table 2. Quantitative socio-economic assumption in 2030
Indicator
Population
Demographic composition
Population
tion

10

distribu-

Set Value (2030)
Estimated by UN Population low variant, 2030 for
Vietnam[Male] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 and over: 5.8%
[Female] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 and over:
7.4%
Urbanization rate is 45% (22.3% in 2005)

2030 Tendency
Growth rate still at 1.2 per annum
Number of male births are higher thanfemale births
Large quantity of rural-lived people
move to cites causes asynchronous
infrastructure development
Slight decrease in average size ofhousehold

Average number of
persons per household
Employment rate

3 (3.15 in 2005)

Structureof
employed population[Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry]: 30% (58% in 2005)[Industry, Construction]: 30% (18% in 2005)[Service]: 40% (24% in 2005)

Economic development leads to increasing the need of labour
Primary industry sectoral share has adecrease trend, whilst secondary industry still has an increasing trend.

Modal share[Train] 10%, [Bus]30%, [Waterway]11.6%, [Motorcar& motorbike]35.3%, [Walk]7%, [Bicycle]5%

Increasing of public transport, more
people respond to walk and use bicycle

Gross output[Primary industry]: 4.1 times higher than 2005
[Secondary industry]: 5.7 times[Tertiary industry]: 5.4 times

Vietnam is on an increasing economic
growth trajectory and has priorities inmeeting the development needs.

Increasing 20-30%

Population—million

Population projections are based on UN
Population low variant, 2030 for Vietnam.
The Vietnam population will reach over 99.3
million people in 2030. Number of household will rise from 25.2 million (2005) to33.1 million (2030), and average household
size will decrease from 3.3 (2005) to 3.0(2030).

Real GDP-2000 PPP US$ billion

Population and number of household

Industry
It is projected that Vietnam annual averagereal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to growat 7% per annum for period 2005-2030. The
real GDP of Vietnam in 2030 is estimated tobe approximately 4,183 trill.VND (5.1 timesof the performance in 2005).
An input-output framework has been used todetermine the future structure of economy.
Currently, the agriculture sector has its relative importance in the total GDP of the Vietnam economy. However, in coming time, thepercentage share of the agriculture sector in
the total GDP has followed a declining trend.
While, the industry sector is making well inthe economy from last 10 years and it is expected to contribute more to GDP in the future.
Modeling result shows that economic sectoral structure in GDP in 2030 will be as follows: share of the primary industry will decrease from 13.5% (2005) to 10.3% (2030)
whereas the share of secondary industry will
increase by 4% from 60.1% (2005) to 64.1%(2030) . In addition, the share of the tertiaryindustry still remain as in 2005 about 25.6%(2030).

Table 3. Macro-economic indicators (trillion VND)
2005

2030

2030/
2005

GDP

818.5

4,182.5

5.1

GDP/capita (mil VND)

9.8

42.1

4.3

Private consumption

585.3

296.9

5.1

Government consumption

8.9

44.9

5.1

Fixed capital formation

30.7

155.6

5.1

Exports

56.2

285.1

5.1

Imports

644.4

323.8

5.0

Indicator

Figure 9. Production by industry

Transportation
Passenger transport demand will increase
from 57 billion passengers-kilometers (2005)
to 519 billion passengers-kilometers (2030)
or 9 times higher than 2005.
Due to the growth of output of the manufacturing industries, the corresponding freighttransport demand will increase over 10times, from 101 billion tone-kilometers(2005) to 1085 billion tone-kilometers(2030).

Figure 10. Passenger transport demand11Energy demand and GHG emissions
Estimation of energy demand and corresponding GHGs emission in 2030 is based onbottom-up type energy demand and supply
model.
Finding results related to energy demandand GHGs emission are shown in Figure 11
to Figure 14.
The model result shows that the total energy
demand of Vietnam is projected to increaseabout 3.3 times from 44.4 million toe (toe:tone oil equivalent) in 2005 to 144.7 million
toe in 2030 BaU scenario. As can be seenfrom figure 13 energy demand of passenger
transport and freight transport have rapidly
increase of 5.7 times and 6.9 times, respectively. However, energy demand of industry

is estimated to increase 5.2 times and still
will maintain the largest share of 36% (52million toe), followed by transport (42 million toe, 29%), residential (39 million toe,27%), and commercial (11 million toe, 8%) in
2030 BaU.
This study shows that by 2030 BaU the energy system of the country would rely moreon oil than biomass (fuel wood) this corresponds to the increasing of oil products ofsupply from the domestic refinery. By 2030
BaU, the share of oil in the TPES (total primary energy supply) would rise to about 34%(as compared to 24% in 2005), followed bynatural gas (24%), coal (19%), renewable (15%)
and hydropower (8%).

Figure 11. Energy demand by primary energy

Figure 12. Fuel demand for power generation

Figure 13. Final energy demand by sector

12Figure 14. GHG emissions by sector

in 2030
The finding from the modeling shows thatthe total GHG emissions in Vietnam are projected to increase from approximately 80.9
million t-CO2 (2005) to 446.3 million t-CO2(2030 BaU) or 5.5 times higher than 2005. It
can be illustrated from Figure 14 that GHG
emission from industry will be about 210
million t-CO2 and the share will be around
47% of total GHG emission. GHG emissions
from passenger transport and freight transport are found to be about around 6 times
the amount in 2005.
From Figure 15, GHG per capita will increase
from 0.97 tones of CO2 per capita in 2005 to
4.5 of CO2 per capita in 2030 BaU scenario.
Based on the assumption, fuel sources for
power generation are dominated by naturalgas, accounting for 1845 ktoe of the total

capacity in 2005 which has the largest shareof about 50%, followed by coal (22.5%), hydropower (19.5%) and oil (7%). This share still
remain in 2030 BaU scenario.

Figure 15. Per capita GHG emissions

Box 2.
Key elements of “National Energy Policy of Vietnam.”
1. Developing energy infrastructure and ensuring adequate, stable and long-term energy supplies
for development;
2. Developing energy, taking into account environmental considerations and sustainable development;
3. Encouraging the economical and efficient use of energy by: (i) taking steps to replace lowefficientequipment and facilities, (ii) encouraging domestic manufacture of end-use equipment and facilities that meet energy efficiency standards, (iii) carrying out measures to improve energy conservation in large buildings, and (iv) applying the principles of demand side and energy supply
management;
4. Developing new and renewable energy resources, such as small hydro, wind power, solar energy, and geothermal;
5. Promoting rural energy policy by ensuring adequate energy supply for the sustainable development of remote populations, achieving rural access for all by 2010;
6. Enhancing international cooperation in energy3; and7. Improving legal frameworks and market-oriented reforms, especially in the power sector(APERC, 2005).
Laws governing the Energy sector- Electricity Law: Provides roadmap and assigns responsibilities for reform and liberalization of
the power sector (2004-2005)- Petroleum Law: Sets the overall framework for exploration and development of on-shore andoff-shore oil and gas resources, including the nature of FDI allowed and types of contracts to beentered into with IOCs—International Oil Companies (1993-Amended 2000)- Law on Environmental Protection: Creates the statutory basis for regulating public and private
activities to protect theenvironment and establishes the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

13

Potential Mitigation of Vietnam in 2030
The amount of CO2 emission in Vietnam will
be reduced from 446 million t-CO2 in the 2030
BaU scenario to 250 million t-CO2 in 2030 CM
by adoption of counter measures for mitigating GHG in 2030. Based on the model simulation, the reduction of GHG emissions by typesof countermeasures contributed by several
measures (Figure 16).
Energy efficiency improvement accounts forthe largest CO2 emission reduction of 40% of
total reduction, distributed as 31.6 million tCO2 (16% ) in transport, 20.4 million t-CO2(10%) in industry, 15.6 million t-CO2 (8%) and10.3 million t-CO2 (5%) in commercial and residential, respectively.
Fuel switch of all sectors make up the second
largest CO2 emission reduction of 65.5 million t-CO2 (33%). The next big potential comesfrom power supply sector by 36.8 million tCO2 emission reduction (19%). The last poten-

tial reduction is from increasing the use of
public transport (8% of total CO2 reduction).
Portfolio of energy efficiency improvement
includes (i) industry sector: improvement of
low-efficiency coal-fired boilers to higher efficiency one, improvement of low-efficiency oilfired boilers to higher efficiency one, andmore efficient industrial equipments and motors; (ii) residential and commercial sectors:
replace existing coal-cooking stoves and existing
LPG (Liquefied petroleum gases) cooking stoves to BAT (best available technology)-cooking stoves, replace incandescentlight bulbs by compact fluorescent lamps.
However, in order to realize a low carbon society, Vietnam has to have new and bold policies to encourage and promote businesses andcitizens to take these countermeasures.

Figure 16. Contribution of each countermeasure to reduce CO2 emission

14

Five “Actions” towards LCS
Based on the socio-economic assumption
and for reducing GHG emissions to achievesustainable development, we carried out the
combination of measures (Figure 16). Due tothese several numbers of measures, we divide them into five actions (Figure 17).

Action 1. Convenient Transport
Using of public transportation and bicycle
will increase level of convenience in travel,
which has lead to decline in usage of automobiles and it has results in a safe and comfortable transportation environment. Insteadof cargo transportation by trucks, convenientand comfortable large scale transportation
by train and by ship is increasingly used.
Promoting the use of biofuel in automobile
also brings about benefit in cutting down
CO2 emission.

Action 4: Fuel switch of Industry
The action aims to switching from coal togas and other renewable energies. A large
amount of financial commitments would be
required in not only technology but also in
associated infrastructure.

Action 5: Smart Power Plants
A Smart Power Plant could not only be environmental friendly but also could be understood as the sufficient, continuous supply ofenergy required for the social and economic
development of the whole country. Leveraging to achieve it is the benefits of energy efficiency, utilizing nuclear energy and renewable energy.

Action 2. Green Building
Buildings have intelligent structures by utilizing of natural energy resources such as
photovoltaic energy. Households have increase the application of renewable energy indaily life such as cooking activities.

Action 3. Energy Efficiency (EE)
Improvement
This action could not only enhance EE in all
sectors but also strengthen state management on EE by developing a management
system for energy saving and strengthen
public awareness to promote EE as well as
environmental protection.
Figure 17. Five actions to reduce GHG emission

Table 4 . Potential of CO2 emission reduction from “Five Actions”
No.

Action namePotential of CO2
reduction (Mt-CO2)
31.7

Action 1

Convenient Transport

Action 2

Green Building

27.9

Action 3

Energy Efficiency Improvement

77.7

Action 4

Fuel switch of industry

28.1

Action 5

Smart Power plants

36.3

15

Action1: Convenient transport
The action on Convenient transport primarily comprises of a shift from private vehicles
to public transportation (such as bus andtrain) by traffic management system andincreased penetration of fuel switch (fuelswitch from gasoline and diesel to electricity
and gas).
GHG reductions from modal shift is 22.1 MtCO2. Promoting fuel switch could reduce 9.6
Mt-CO2. Total CO2 emission reduction fromthis action contribute to 16% of total CO2
emission reduction.
Because of population and economic growthin 2030, the passenger transport demand is
projected to be 517.8 billion passenger-km.
The share of walk and bicycle are very small
compare to the share of motorbike in 2005
and 2030 (see Figure 20). Motorbike is overwhelmingly the most popular mode of transport in Vietnam,
correspondingly cause
traffic congestion frequently and contributeto faster increasing of CO2 emission. As
usual economic growth without any interference of mitigations, energy demand and CO2
emission of this sector will increase to 18.4
million toe and 60 million t-CO2 in 2030
BaU, respectively. However, in 2030 with

Convenient
Transport
16%

countermeasure, the final energy consumption reduces to 13.2 million toe. Accordingly, CO2 emissions decrease to 40 million tCO2.
Currently, Vietnam has paid due attention totransport demand management which including transport infrastructure development (focusing investment on road network
development, building new and upgrading
key national highways), investment to publicvehicles, and bold policy to control and reduce the use of motorbikes.

Figure 18. CO2 emission reduction by action 1

Smart Power
plants18%

Green
Building
14%

Fuel switchof industry
14%

EnergyEfficiency
Improvement
38%

Figure 19. Potential CO2
mitigation by Action 1

16

Figure 20. Passenger transport volume

The freight demand increase due to thegrowth of output of the manufacturing industries. With the natural endowment ofdense river and canal network, waterway
transport is very developed with the share ofnearly 35% of total domestic transported volume. The energy demand from this sector
increases significantly in 2030 BaU to 23.5

Figure 21. Freight transport volume

million toe. With energy efficiency improvement of shifting fuel to biomass/bio-fuel andtravel demand management in 2030 CM, theenergy demand and CO2 emission reduce
considerably to 11.8 million toe and 31.8
million t-CO2, respectively.

Figure 22. A future public transportation system

Box 3.
Electric Vehicles (EV)In an electric vehicle (EV), a battery or other energy storage device is used to store the electricity that powers the motor. EV batteries must be replenished by plugging in the vehicle to a
power source. Some electric vehicles have onboard chargers; others plug into a charger located outside the vehicle. Both types, however, use electricity that comes from the power grid.
Although electricity production may contribute to air pollution, EVs are considered zeroemission vehicles because their motors produce no exhaust or emissions.
Ref.Alternative Fuel and Advanced Vehicle Center

Figure 23. A electric vehicles (http://www.mitsubishi-motors.co.jp)

17Action 2: Green Building
The “Green Building” action focuses on
measures of fuel shifting and natural energy
utilization of two sectors (residential andcommercial). This action is targeted to reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 12.6 million t-CO2 and 15.3 million t-CO2 or 6% and 8%(total 14%) compared to total CO2 emission
reduction in the two sectors: commercial andresidential, respectively.
Fuel shifting and natural energy utilization
comprise following measures such as: biomass heating, solar heating, photovoltaic
power and solar water heater.
In order to achieve this action, it should be
deploying policies concerning (i) subsidy tointroduce natural energy system (solar andwind energy, photovoltaic power), (ii) low
interest loan in investment to building using
renewable energy, (iii) environmental per-formance standard and evaluation of housing and buildings.

Figure 24. “Green space” in Hanoi

Convenient
Transport
16%

Smart Power
plants18%

Green
Building
14%

Fuel switchof industry
14%

EnergyEfficiency
Improvement
38%

Figure 25. CO2 reduction contributed by solar &wind in residential and commercial sectors

Figure 26. Potential CO2 mitigation by
Action 2 “Green Building”

Figure 27. Breakdown of emission mitigation by means in commercial (left) and in residential (right)

18

Action 3: Energy Efficiency Improvement
The “Energy Efficiency Improvement” action
is able to reduce CO2 emissions in all sectors
in 2030 by 77.7 million t-CO2, accounting forabout 38% compared to total CO2 emission
reduction. In the graph below, the highest
amount of CO2 emission reduction accounts
for transport sector by 31.6 MtCO2, following
by industry, commercial and residential sectors with respectively amount of CO2 reduc-tions are 20.4, 15.6 and 10.3 MtCO2.
This action is used to turn the existing or
low-efficiency device, equipment, motors orvehicles into “best available technology”
models in all sector. “Nation Strategic Program on Energy Saving and Effective Use” isused in order to implement this action.

Convenient
Transport
16%

Smart Power
plants18%

Green
Building
14%

Fuel switchof industry
14%

EnergyEfficiency
Improvement
38%

Figure 28. Potential CO2 mitigation by Action 3 “Energy Efficiency Improvement”

Box 4.
National Strategic Program on Energy Saving and Effective Use
The energy efficiency and conservation goal is a 5-8% cut in cumulative energy consumption
between 2011—2015.This target is in line with the long-term objective of reducing the elasticity factor (growth rate of energy demand/growth rate of GDP) from the historical level of 1.46
to 1.0 by 2015, and further to 0.9 by 2020 and 0.8 in subsequent years.
The government decrees, circulars and decisions that address energy efficiency and conservation are listed in below table.
Legislation (type)
Energy Saving and Efficient Use of Energy (Decree)
Guiding the Saving and Efficient Use of Energy by Production
Establishments (Circular)
Approving the 2006-2010 Electricity Saving Program (Decision)
Approving the National Target Program on Saving and Efficient
Use of Energy (Decision)
Establishing the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Office at the
Ministry of Industry (Decision)
Establishing the Steering Committee of the National Target
Program on Savings and Efficient Use of Energy (Decision)
Promulgating the Regulations on Selection of the Organizations,Individuals to Preside over the Implementation of National Target
Program on Saving and Efficient Use of Energy projects (Decision)
Guiding the Order and Procedures for Energy Efficiency Labelingfor Energy Consuming Products (Decision)

Promulgator
National Government
Ministry of Industry

Issuance date
3 September 2003
2 July 2004

Date Effective
September 2003
July 2004

Prime Minister
Prime Minister

14 April 2006
14 April 2006

May 2006
May 2006

Ministry of Industry

7 April 2006

7 April 2006

Ministry of Industry

18 May 2006

18 May 2006

Steering Committee of
the National Target
Program
Ministry of Industry

20 September
2006

20 September
2006

16 November 2006

December 2006

Source: EVN,2006c

Reference: Vietnam country report: From ideas to action: Clean Energy solutions for Asia to address climate change
by USAID/ASIA

19

Action 4: Fuel Switch in Industry
The action “Fuel Switch in Industry” is targeted to reduce CO2 emission in 2030 by
28062 kt-CO2 or 14% of total CO2 emission.
In which, largest potential reduction is accounted for steam boiler by 17779 kt-CO2,
followed by direct heating (furnace) by 8549
kt-CO2, and other activities by 1734 kt-CO2.
Fuel uses in industry sector, will be able toshift from high carbon intensity to lower
ones. For instance, fuel switch from coal andoil to natural gas.
To promote mitigation measures of industry

Table 5. Energy demand by service by fuel inindustry
2005
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
Others
Total
Share
2030 BaU
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
Others
Total
Share
2030 CM
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
Others
Total
Share

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Electricity

2352
1968
0
480
4799
49%
2352

631
1623
0
717
2971
30%
631

38
49
0
13
100
1%
38

0
0
0
0
0
0%
0

173
0
1497
249
1919
20%
173

9630
4821
0
1816
16267
32%

1619
4474
0
1952
8046
16%

3846
3057
0
1140
8043
16%

0
0
0
0
0
0%

2755
7844
8365
316
19280
37%

3262
4412
0
1803
9477
20%

567
982
0
549
2097
5%

4475
6106
0
2494
13075
28%

1800
2726
0
1279
5804
13%

3071
4255
6760
1875
15961
34%

sector, incentive to investment in fuel switch
is essentially important. Policies for this sector should be focus on tax, subsidy and low
interest loans.

Convenient
Transport
16%

Smart Power
plants18%

Green
Building
14%

Fuel switchof industry
14%

EnergyEfficiency
Improvement
38%

Figure 29. Potential CO2 mitigation by Action 4

Figure 30. CO2 emission reduction by service

Box 5.
Renewable Energy potential in Vietnam
According to Institute of Energy (IOE) of Electricity of Viet Nam (2005):
1. Hydropower: The total hydropower potential is estimated at 80,000 GWh/year. Around
20% of this total (16,000 GWh/year) is small hydro (under 10 MW).
2. Biomass potential ranges from 43 to 46 million TOE per annum, of which, fuel wood shares
60% (26 to 27 million TOE) while agricultural residues share 40% (17 to 19 mill TOE);
3. Wind power potential ranges from 860-1,410 kWh per m2 per year on the islands, 8001,000 kWh per m2 per year in coastal regions and 500-800 kWh per m2 per year in some inland
areas.
4. Biogas shares 10% (0.4 million TOE)
5. Solar energy: In winter, it would see about 3-4.5 KWh per m2 per day of solar radiation andthis increases to 6.5 KWh per m2 in the summer. Vietnam has up to 2,000-2,500 hours ofsunshine a year.

20Action 5: Smart Power Plants
The action “Smart Power Plants” is calculated
to reduce CO2 emission in 2030 by 26853 ktCO2 or 18% of total CO2 emission. This action
comprises of 4 main measures; namely, utilizing economically efficient domestic energy
resources, promoting the use of renewableenergies, reducing transmission and distribution loss, and developing nuclear power
plant.
The finding results are shown in Table 6. As
can be seen from the table, the share of highcarbon intensity fuel decreased and replacedby lower carbon intensity fuel and renewableenergies such as solar & wind and biomass.
The transmission loss in 2005 was 11.3% andthis number will reduce to 9% in 2030 BaU
case and 7.5% in 2030 CM. This trend ismade according to EVN’s goal for 2025 (seeBox 6).
The model results show that nuclear is required to contribute 8% to generate power in
2030 CM case.

Convenient
Transport
16%

Smart Power
plants18%

Green
Building
14%

Fuel switchof industry
14%

EnergyEfficiency
Improvement
38%

Figure 31. Potential CO2 mitigation by Action 4
Table 6. Power supply sector in 2005, 2030 BaU and 2030 CM (Unit: ktoe)
2005
Fuel
Generation
Own-use (2.7%)
Transmission loss (11.3%)
Distribution
2030 BaU
FuelGeneration
Own-use (2.7%)
Transmission loss (9%)
Distribution
2030 CM
Fuel
Generation
Own-use (2.7%)
Transmission loss (7.5%)
Distribution

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Solar wind

Biomass

Total

2132 (17%)
769
21
84
663

679 (4.6%)
213
6
23
184

4812 (39%)
1770
49
194
1527

1845 (4%)
1845
51
203
1592

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

9467
4597
126
505
3966

16186 (17%)
5838
160
511
5167

5155 (4.6%)
1621
44
142
1434

36540 (39%)
13441
368
1177
11896

14007 (4%)
14007
384
1226
12397

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

71888
34906
957
3055
30894

11991 (15%)
4325
119
315
3891

5503 (6%)
1730
47
126
1556

18811 (24%)
6919
190
505
6225

12109 (42%)
12109
332
883
10894

2306 (8%)
2306
63
168
2075

721 (2.5%)
721
20
53
648

2403 (2.5%)
721
20
53
648

53843
28831
790
2103
25937

Box 6.
Current targets for Power Development in Vietnam
1. The electricity consumption per capita in 2005 was 538 kWh/yr, and is expected to increase
up to 2058-2350 kWh/yr by 2020 and 3096-3752 kWh/yr by 2030 (Electricity of Vietnam,
2006a, 2008a; Institute of Energy, 2006a, 2006b, 2008b)
2. Transmission and distribution loss in Vietnam in 2025 will reduce to less than 8%(Instituteof Energy, 2006a, 2006b, 2008a, 2008b)
3. According to current and the sixth National Power Development Master Plan of 2006-2015
with prospects to 2025 (Decision No. 110/2007/QD-TTg dated 18 july 2007), the electricity
demand is projected to increase by 15% - 18% per annum over the period 2010-2030.
3. Strategy to apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020 (Decision No.01/2006/QDTTg): The investment report for construction of the first nuclear power plant will be approvedby 2010. By 2020 Vietnam will complete construction and commissioning of the first nuclear
power plant. At the same time, the country has to prepare the infrastructure for developmentof a long-term nuclear power programme.

21

Methodology
A procedure to create LCS scenarios
In order to create a local low-carbon society
scenario, We developed a method based on theidea of "back casting", which sets a desirable goal
first, and then seek the way to achieve it. Figure
31 shows overview of the method.

(1) Setting Framework(2) Description of socio‐
economic assumptions(4) Collection of low carbon
measures(1) Setting framework
Framework of a LCS scenario includes; target(3) Quantification of socio‐(5) Setting introduction of
economicassumptions
measures in target year
area, base year, target year, environmental target,
number of scenarios. Among them, the base year
is compared with target year. The target year(6) Estimation of GHG
should be far enough to realize required change,
emissions in the target year
and near enough to image the vision for the people in the region. In this study, we set the target
year of Vietnam, 2030. This is also a suitable(7) Confirming measures set andsuggestion of policy recommendations
time span for a LCS study for the reasons above.
As an environmental target, we targeted CO2
Figure 32. Procedure to create LCS scenarios
from energy use because it will be a main source(5)Setting introduction of counter measuresof GHG emissions from Vietnam in 2030.
Technological parameters related to energy(2)Assumptions of socio-economic situations
demand and CO2 emissions, in short energy effiBefore conducting quantitative estimation,
ciency, are defined. Since there can be various
qualitative future image should be written. It is
portfolios of the measures, one must choose apan image of lifestyle, economy and industry, land
propriate criteria. For example, cost minimizause and so on.
tion, acceptance to the stakeholders, or probabil(3)Quantification of socio-economic assumpity of technological development.
tions(6)Estimation of GHG emission in the target
To estimate Snapshot based on future imageyearof (2), values of exogenous variables and parameBased on socio-economic indices and assumpters are set. Using those input, ExSS calculatestion of measures' introduction, GHG emissions
socio-economic indices of the target year such as
are calculated.
population, GDP, output by industry, transport(7)Proposal of policies
demand, and so on.
Propose policy set to introduce the measures(4)Collection of low-carbon measures
defined. Available policies depend on the situaTo collect counter measures which aretion of the country. ExSS can calculate emission
thought to be available in the target year. For exreduction of each counter measure.
ample, high energy-efficiency devices, transport
Therefore, it can show reduction potential ofstructure change such as public transport, use ofmeasures which especially needs local policy. It
renewable energy, energy saving behavior andcan also identify measures which have high recarbon sink. Technical data is required to estiduction potential and therefore important.
mate their effect to reduce GHG emissions. In
this research we employed the measure showedin preceding study (Japan’s study).

22

Quantitative estimation tool “Extended Snapshot Tool”
Figure 33 shows the structure of the Extended
Snapshot Tool (ExSS); seven blocks with input
parameters, exogenous variables and variables
between modules. ExSS is a system of simultaneous equations. Given a set of exogenous variables
and parameters, solution is uniquely defined. In
this simulation model, only CO2 emission fromenergy consumption is calculated, even though,ESS can be used to estimate other GHG and environmental loads such as air quality. In many LCS
scenarios, exogenously fixed population data areused. However, people migrate more easily, when
the target region is relatively a smaller area suchas a state, district, city or town. Population is decided by demand from outside of the region, labor participation ratio, demographic composition
and relationship of commuting with outside of
the region. To determine output of industries,
input-output approach is applied.

•Export•Government expenditure•Import ratio •Labor productivity

Averageworking time

Wage

Privateconsumption

Output•Commuting OD

Labor ModuleLabordemandMacro‐economy andIndustry Module

For future estimation, assumption of export
value is especially important if the target regionis thought to (or, desired to) develop led by particular industry, such as automotive manufacturing or sight seeing.
Passenger transport demand is estimatedfrom the population and freight transport demand whereby it is a function of output by
manufacturing industries. Floor area of commerce is determined from output of tertiary industries. Other than driving force, activity levelof each sector, energy demand by fuels determined with three parameters. One is energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency
and fuel share. Diffusion of counter measureschanges the value of these parameters, and so
GHG emissions.

Number ofworkers

IncomeTime‐use andConsumption Module•Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family
occupants

Population and Household
Number Module
Population
Number ofhousehold•Breakdown ofconsumption•Population distribution•Floor area per
outputFloor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Transport
ModuleCommercial
Building Module

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG
Emissions Module•Energy service demand generation unit
•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor•Trip per parson•Transport distance•Modal share

Module

GHG emissions

Main endogenous
variables

Flow of endogenous variables

Exogenous variables
and parameters
Input

Figure 33. Overview of calculation system of Extended Snapshot Tool

23

Description

347
1069

Total gross output

45

08 Private & government services and o7220Gross value added

11

06 Capital goods

07 Construction

Total intermediate input

11
120

05 Industrial materials

35

03 Food, beverage & tobaco manufactur

04 Other consumer goods

0

124

01

02 Mining and quarrying

01 Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

No.

261

143

101

42

24

0

5

9

1

0

3

0

02

259

59

200

12

0

3

15

10

44

3

112

03

285

50

235

20

0

4

38

160

0

1

11

04

182

45

137

16

0

5

97

7

0

10

1

05

127

29

99

7

0

58

28

5

0

0

0

06

179

53

126

9

0

26

78

8

0

5

0

07

497

304

193

71

0

37

53

16

9

3

4

08

1934

818

1115

170

0

141

348

209

62

26

159

585

254

0

33

37

35

143

1

83

713

504

209

118

0

25

46

3

0

16

1

02

1363

313

1050

64

0

18

77

55

229

15

590

03

2182

383

1799

154

0

27

293

1228

3

11

83

04

907

226

681

79

0

26

485

33

2

50

6

05

601

136

465

32

0

274

132

25

0

1

0

06

910

270

640

48

0

130

394

39

1

26

1

07

2661

1628

1032

381

0

201

285

85

47

14

20

08

10405

4183

6222

921

0

713

1833

1479

318

133

826

2969

1484

0

47

70

324

831

5

208

4

127

45

45

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1556

187

910

207

183

-20

65

2

21

2851

409

0

242

215

810

363

647

164

-3238

-386

0

-608

-1395

-411

-215

-73

-151

10405

2661

910

601

907

2182

1363

713

1069

497
1934

-54
-644

179

-135
0

-282

81

0

48

285
182

-115

160
42

259

-30

562

37

261
143

72

-17
-11

32
127

307

179

41

36

-4

13

0

9

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Government
consumption

Table 8. Input-output table of Vietnam in 2030 (Unit: Trillion VND)

176

Total gross output

11

08 Private & government services and oGross value added

0
85

3

06 Capital goods

07 Construction

Total intermediate input

3
29

9

03 Food, beverage & tobaco manufactur

04 Other consumer goods

005 Industrial materials

30

01 Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

01

02 Mining and quarrying

Description

Fixed capitalformation

Government
consumption

No.

ExportFixed capitalformation

Totalintermediate
consumption

Totalintermediate
consumption

ImportExportPrivateconsumption

Privateconsumption

Total gross
outputImport24
Total gross
outputTable 7. Input-output table of Vietnam in 2005 (Unit: Trillion VND)

Data Tables

Table 9. Energy Consumption by fuel (Unit: ktoe)
Coal
2005
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
Total
Share
2030 BaU
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
Total
Share
2030 CM
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
Total
Share

861
333
4799

Oil
726
958
2971
3182

Gas

Heat

Hydro

Solar wind

Biomass

Electricity

23129

1674
338
1919
33

100

3386
5993
13%

11223
25%

2606
1327
16267

2758
5760
8046
17952

2
100
0%

0
0%

0
0%

0
0%

23129
52%

3966
9%

27580

6574
4557
19280
467

8043

23439

16

20200
14%

57955
40%

8043
6%

833
309
9477

987
1280
2097
9190

271
13075

0
0%
1274
689

8255
10618
10%

21809
20%

0
0%

0
0%

27580
19%

30894
21%

1522
279

22316
1658
5804
1454

3819
2235
15961
2598

1742

1324

32975
30%

25937
24%

455
13346
12%

1963
2%

455
0%

1801
2%

Total
26390
1629
9789
3215
3388
44411
100%
39518
11644
51636
18420
23455
144673
100%
30751
6720
46413
13243
11777
108904100%

25

References
design methodology towards a low-carbon
Annex 6. Vietnam Country Report. From ideas
economy: An application to Shiga Prefecto action: clean energy solutions. For Asia
ture in Japan. Energy Policy 35 (2007)
to address climate change. 2007.
4688-4703.
Duong, H., Nguyen, T. The potential for mitigation of CO2 emissions in Vietnam’s power Strachan, N., Foxon, T., Fujino, J. 2008. LowCarbon Society (LCS) modeling. Climate
sector. Energy security and climate
Policy 8 (2008) S3-S4.
change problems and issues in GMS, Ha
Roadmap Committee, Shiga Prefecture SustainLong : Viet Nam (2009)able Society Research Team. 2009. A
Draft of National Target Program to Respond
Roadmap for Sustainable Shiga Towards
to Climate Change (Implementing the2030.
Government's Resolution No. 60/2007/
NQ-CP dated 3rd December 2007)
Statistic Yearbook of Vietnam 2008. 2009. VietEconomics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations
nam General Statistic Office(Vietnam). 1999. Hydrometeorological Ser- Viet Nam Initial National Communication. 2003.
vice of Vietnam (Hanoi)
Socialist Republic of Viet Nam. Ministry of
Fujino, J., Ehara, T., Matsuoka, Y., Masui, T.,
Natural Resources and Environment
Kainuma, M., 2008. Back-casting analysis
for 70% emission reduction in Japan by
2050. Climate Policy 8, 108–124 supplement.
Gomi, K., Shimada, K., Matsuoka, Y. July 2009. A
low-carbon scenario creation method for a
local-scale economy and its application in
Kyoto city. Energy Policy (2009).
Impacts of current energy policies and energy
development in Vietnam from sustainability point of view. 2007. Greening the Business and Making Environment a Business
Opportunity. 5-7 June 2007 Bangkok,
Thailand.
Japan Low-Carbon Society scenario team, 2008.
Japan Scenarios and Actions towards LowCarbon Societies (LCSs).

Matsuoka, Y., et al. 2009. Low-carbon city
2025 sustainable Iskandar Malaysia.
Omoteyama, S. Energy Sector Situation in Vietnam. The Institute of Energy Economics,
Japan. May 2009.
Utaka, F., et al. 2009. A roadmap towards Low
Carbon Kyoto
Shimada, K., Tanaka, Y., Gomi, K., Matsuoka, Y.
2007. Developing a long-term local society

26

Sustainable Low-Carbon Society Towards 2030 in Vietnam
Asian Pacific Integrated Model Team (AIM)
GCOE on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities—Kyoto University
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
February, 2010
Contact address:
Atmospheric and Thermal Environmental Engineering Laboratory (Matsuoka Laboratory)
Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering
Graduate school of Engineering
Kyoto University
Katsura Campus, Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
Tel: +81 75 383 3370
Email: nguyenthai.hoa@hx5.ecs.kyoto-u.ac.jp or envi_koneko@yahoo.com (N. T. Hoa)

27

Low Carbon Society Towards 2030 in Vietnam
Sponsored by
Asian Pacific Integrated Model Team (AIM)
GCOE on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities-Kyoto University
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Members
NGUYEN Thai Hoa* (Kyoto University)
Kei GOMI (Kyoto University)
Yuzuru MATSUOKA (Kyoto University)
TRAN Thanh Tu (Kyoto University)
Junichi FUJINO (NIES)
Mikiko KAINUMA (NIES)
Ram Manohar SHRESTHA (AIT)(*) Corresponding author. Tel.: +8175 383 3370; Fax: +8175 383 3371 (Japan)
Tel: +84904 111 981 (Vietnam)
Email address: nguyenthai.hoa@hx5.ecs.kyoto-u.ac.jp (N. T. Hoa)