Low-Carbon Society
Development towards
2025 in

Bangladesh2Preface
Being a minute greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted and as the most affected country by climatechange, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) concentrates on implementing several adaptationand mitigation programmes. Considering the advantages of implementing mitigation technologies, the objective of this study is to give an initial vision of possible Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
scenario in Bangladesh. LCS scenario consists of future changes in demography, transport, industry, energy demand, crop production, livestock number, landuse pattern and GHG emission
from energy sector (residential, commercial, transport, industry and power) and non-energy sector (agriculture, forestry and other landuse, AFOLU) in 2025.
Bangladesh is an energy poor and agriculture based country. For Bangladesh, the concept of
LCS for energy sector not only to reduce GHG emission, but also focuses on low-carbon energy
mix and better energy efficiency which can meet the challenge of CO 2 emission reduction andimproves economic productivity. For AFOLU sectors, LCS is to quantify future emission mitigation potential by using feasible mitigation technologies for developing sustainable agricultural
system. This study used the Extended Snapshot tool (ExSS) developed by Kyoto University, Japan, in order to design quantitative future scenario of LCS. ExSS estimated the socio-economic
activity level, energy demand, CO2 emission and reduction potential by low-carbon measures.
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Landuse Bottom-up (AFOLUB) model was developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and Kyoto University (KU), Japan, in order toproject future GHG emission from AFOLU sectors and mitigation potential under several constraints for mitigation costs.
For Bangladesh, building LCS will be both a challenge and an opportunity. This report provides
essential socio-economic information and efficient and cost-effective mitigation technologies forpolicy makers, administrators, stake-holders and academic researchers in integration of effective
climate change mitigation actions in development policies of the country.

Yuzuru Matsuoka

Junichi Fujino

Abul Kalam Azad

Mirza Shawkat Ali

Professor

Senior Researcher

Professor

Deputy Director

Kyoto University,

National Instituteof Environmental
Studies, Japan

Khulna University,

Department of Environment,

Bangladesh

Bangladesh

Japan

3

Contents
Summary5

About Bangladesh

7

Background of "Low-Carbon Society"12

Climate change actions in Bangladesh

13

Existing development policies in Bangladesh

14

Future socio-economic scenarios for ExSS and AFOLUB model

17

Energy demand and GHG emission

23

Mitigation potential

28

Actions toward GHG emission reduction

38

Methodology

39

References

43

Data Tables

45

4

Summary
This report aims to propose the scenario for realization of sustainable and low-carbon society
development in Bangladesh. The study projects
future GHG emission and propose potential lowcarbon measures by using ExSS tool in energy
sector and cost effective mitigation technologies
by using AFOLUB model in non-energy sector
for its possible implementation.

desh) and other sources (see reference in pp.42).
Most of the energy and energy related information used in this report were collected fromIEA (International Energy Agency).
The methodology applied in AFOLU sector
includes:1) Projection of agricultural harvested area,
livestock number and landuse pattern by
2025;

The methodology applied in energy sector
includes:1) Quantification of socio-economic activity
level in 2025;

2) Quantification of GHG emission by 2025
based on projection trend in (1) on agriculture, livestock and landuse condition;2) Development of CO2 emission and reduction measures based on socio-economic
assumptions and availability of technologies;

3) Estimation of GHG emission potential
under several Allowable Additional Costs(AAC).
Most information on agriculture, forestry
and landuse was collected from Ministry of agriculture, GOB, Statistical year book, 2010 and
yearbook of agricultural statistics, 2010 and
FAOSTAT, 2011.

3) Projection of possible CO2 emission andemission reduction by 2025.
Necessary information was taken from
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Planning division of Ministry of Planning, GOB(Government of People’s republic of Bangla-

Using the above models, the “future trend

350
LULUCF sector

GHG emission/reduction (MtCO2 eq)

300

Agriculture sector

42%

250

Freight transport sector
200

3.5 times

Passenger transport sector

150

Industrial sector
Commercial sector

100

Residential sector

50

GHG emission
0
2005

2025BaU
Year

2025CM

Fig. 1: GHG emission and reduction by reduction measures5much lower than current per capita emission ofmost of the other countries and it will be reduced
to 0.99tCO2 in 2025CM. For GHG emission mitigation, several mitigation technologies are required, such as energy efficient lighting, air conditioner and cooking stove in residential sector andcommercial sector, energy efficient boiler and motor in industrial sector, efficient transport vehicle
and modal shift in transport sector and fuel switch,
reduction of transmission loss in power sector,
midseason drainage, dome digester, cooking fueland lighting and replacement of roughage withconcentrates in agriculture sector, management ofexisting production forest areas and planting longrotation large timber trees in land use, land-use
change and forestry (LULUCF) sector.

of GHG emission” is projected based on:
1) 2025BaU (business-as-usual) without applying reduction measures in 2025 and2) 2025CM (countermeasures) with the application of mitigation technologies in 2025
to reduce the GHG emission.
Those selected reduction measures introduced in 2025CM are efficient and will be compatible with the future situation of Bangladesh.
The main outcomes are as follows:
1) The annual GHG emission of Bangladesh
was 87.9MtCO2eq in the base year of
2005;2) Under the scenario of 2025BaU (without
mitigation technologies) the GHG emission will be increased to 308.9MtCO2eq
which is about 3.5 times larger than baseyear of 2005;

To develop low-carbon society in Bangladesh, a package of policies were formulated
based on the above projection and Outline Perspective plan of Bangladesh, Making Vision
2021 a reality; National Energy Policy; National
Renewable Energy Policy and Strategic Transportation Plans (Fig. 2). These policies are emphasized on fuel switch, introduction of renewable and nuclear energy in power sector, improvethe energy efficient equipment, increment ofpublic transport and improve traffic management
system, sustainable agricultural system and increment of forest cover by reforestation program.

3) Under the scenario of 2025CM (with selected feasible mitigation technologies) the
GHG emission will be reduced to179.4MtCO2eq which is about 42% smaller than 2025BaU (Fig. 1).
In 2005, the per capita GHG emission of
Bangladesh was 0.6tCO2 and it will be increased
up to 1.7tCO2 in 2025BaU. However it is still

Formulation of concrete climate policy
Role

Low-carbon society scenario
Vision•Reduction of GHG emission•Improvement in energy efficiency•Promotion of low-carbon energy mix
TargetGood Governance(Proper monitoring and financing)

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Financial assistance investment to energy efficientequipment.
Subsidy to introduce PV(photo voltaic) system.
Promotion of technology transfer.
Promotion of renewable energy in power sector.
Investment to improvement in public transport
infrastructure.
Promotion of energy efficient vehicle.
Provision of adequate pedestrian facility for walk andbicycle.

AFOLU sector

Requisite•

Policy packages

Energy sector•••

Efficient irrigation system through mid-season andoff-season drainage.
Application of high efficiency fertilizer andammonium sulphate in replacing urea for soil
management.
Promotion of high genetic merit and replacement ofroughage with concentrates to manage entericfermentation.
Long rotational artificial reforestation, short rotational
participatory woodlot plantation.

Fig. 2: Policy package for Low-carbon society in Bangladesh
6About Bangladesh
General features
People's Republic of Bangladesh is an independent country in southern Asia (Fig. 3). Geographically Bangladesh faces the Bay of Bengal, an armof the Indian Ocean, and is bordered by India anda tip of Burma. Bangladesh is the 8th most populous country with the population of 155 million
people and 9th most densely populated country
with 1,099 persons/km2. The main religion practiced in Bangladesh is Islam (89.7%), Hinduism(9.2%), other religious groups including Buddhists (0.7%), Christians (0.3%), and Animists(0.1%). Bangladesh is divided mainly into sevendivisions, Dhaka (capital), Khulna, Sylhet, Chittagong, Rangpur, Barisal and Rajshahi.

RangpurIndia

Rajshahi
India

Bangladesh

Sylhet
India

Dhaka

Khulna Barisal
Chittagong

Physiography
The country has an area of 144,000 square kilometers with extends 820 kilometers north to southand 600 kilometers east to west. Bangladesh lies
almost entirely within the combined delta of theGanges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers andconsists primarily of a low-lying alluvial plain.
The land is relatively flat and about 67% nonurban areas are arable, with some mangrove forest,
tropical rain forest and some woodland which
cover about 16% of the total landmass. The highest point in Bangladesh is in Mowdok range at
1,052 meters in the Chittagong hill tracts to thesouth-east of the country. Cox’s Bazar is the largest sea beach of having area 120 kilometers in thesouth of the country.

Bay of Bengal

MyanmarFig. 3: Map of Bangladesh

Agriculture
The country has agrarian economy, which comprises of about 19% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employs about 45% of thetotal labor force. However the contribution of agriculture to the country's GDP has been steadily
declining from 55% in 1970 to 31.6% in 1999 to
21.7% in 2009. The performance of this sector
has an overwhelming on major macro-economic
objectives like employment generation, poverty
reduction, human resource development and foodsecurity. Being an agricultural country, Bangladesh cultivates significant amount of rice (Aman,
Aus and Boro), jute, sugarcane, potato, pulses,
wheat, tea and tobacco, which are the major crops,
contributing about 72% of total production in the
agriculture sector. Fisheries, livestock and forestry
sub-sectors are contributing production of 10.3%,
10.1% and 7.3% respectively. Bangladesh is thelargest producer of world's best quality jute,which also known as natural jute or raw jute. Rice

ClimateBangladesh is a tropical monsoon country. The
climate of Bangladesh is characterized by hightemperature, heavy rainfall and excessive humidity during monsoon (June to September). The temperature is almost humid, warm and tropic all overthe country. The annual mean temperature of thiscountry is about 25⁰C which range between 18⁰C
in January and 30⁰C from April to May. The
northern and southern parts of Bangladesh are relatively hotter than other parts of the country.
Bangladesh has six seasons, namely summer,
rainy, autumn, late autumn, winter and spring.

7

being the staple food, its production is of major
importance. Rice production stood at 30.7 million
tons in 2007-08 fiscal year. However, Bangladesh
is still in lack of sufficient food supply for thepeople and import dependent. Therefore, “Foodfor all” is now a prime commitment of the government towards the citizens to achieve the selfsufficiency in food grains by 2013 through increased agricultural production. Introduction ofhigh yield verities (HYV) of crops, research andinput distribution on production extension andpolicies, pursued by the government are yielding
positive results. Often inefficient traditional farming system, excess fertilizer use without knowing
its harmful effect and over exploitation of agricultural land may lessen the natural fertility of thesoil.

social and cultural functions.

Fig. 5: Traditional plough

Forestry

Livestock

Bangladesh is green, though it is a forest poor
country. About 6.7% of the total land cover iscalled as public forest with very little natural forest, found in the Sundarban, Khulna. Homestead
forests are mainly seen around the rural household areas.

The performance of livestock sub-sector has great
implication in the economic development of agrobased Bangladesh, as it contributes of 2.8% of
GDP and shares about 17.2% in agriculture.

Forestry is an important sector in Bangladesh’s economy. Forestry being a sub-sector of
agriculture in Bangladesh which contributes to thenational economy of about 1.8% of GDP, promotes ecological stability and meets rural household fuel demand. The total forest land includes
classified, non-classified state lands, homestead
garden, tea and rubber gardens. The total hill forest covers about 670,000 hectares which accounts
for 44% of the total area managed by the Forest
Department.
Fig. 4: Paddy field in Bangladesh
About 44% of the animal protein comes fromlivestock sources and shares about 4.3% of thetotal export, coming from the export of leather
and leather goods. The 30% of the total tillage isstill covered by livestock beside mechanical tillage. Fisheries & Livestock sectors with having
growth rate 5.9% in 2009, employ 20% of population directly and 50% partially. Livestock is an
integral part of the agricultural economy of Bangladesh, which provides nutrition, income, foreign
currency (by exporting hides, skin, bones etc.),
manure, fuel, transport for rural area and otherFig. 6: Sundarban mangrove forest

8

Sundarban, the world’s largest contiguousand natural mangrove forest of area of 6,017 sq.
km, is about 4.1% of total area of Bangladesh(Miah, 2009). The forestry sector contributes
about 5% of the total GDP of Bangladesh andabout 2% (2001-2002) of the total labor. Excessive exploitation, erosion and loss of soil fertility
lead the forest sector to a critical situation for ecological balance and biodiversity conservation.

ports, playing important role in the export and import activities of the country.
Bangladesh is ranked as the 43rd largest economy in the world with gross domestic product of
US$257 billion, if purchasing power parity (PPP)
is taken into account. The country’s economy ismainlyagriculture
based.
However, economy of Bangladesh is a rapidly developing market-based economy. Country’s
per capita income in 2010-2011 was
US$818 or over taka 57,000. GDP per capita was
1700US$ in 2011. Among the Next Eleven or N11 of Goldman Sachs and D-8 economies, with agross domestic product of US$269.3 billion in
PPP terms and US$104.9 billion in nominal terms.
The economy has grown at the rate of 6-7% perannum over the past few years. More than half of
the GDP is generated by the service sector; while
nearly half of Bangladeshis are employed in the
agriculture sector. Other goods produced are textiles, jute, fish, vegetables, fruit, leather and leather goods, ceramics, ready-made goods.

LanduseThe pattern of landuse in Bangladesh has been
greatly influenced by the growing population andexpanding needs for settlement, cropland and industrial land. In landuse, arable land comprised of
55.4%, permanent crops is of 3.1% and other land(forests and woodlands, settlement, roads, barrenland) of 41.5% in 2005.
Agricultural cropland areas in Bangladesh are
influenced by seasonal features and climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, daylength etc. It is reported that cultivable land has
been declining by almost 1% per year due to increased habitation, industrial and commercial settlement, transport infrastructure and so on. The
trend of declination is continuing. The performance of this sector has a remarkable impact on
major macroeconomic objectives like employment
generation, poverty alleviation, human resources
development, food security and overall social development.

Fig. 8: Garment industry
The service sector of the country contributed
about 43% (2009) of the country’s GDP. In theindustrial sector, main manufacturing industries
are ready-made garments, cotton textiles, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, wood products, iron andsteel, chemicals and plastics. The manufacturingindustry contributed 17% of the GDP in 2009
which is mainly dominated by ready-made garments. Bangladesh was ranked as the 4th largest
garment exporter in the world among the 10 garment suppliers to the USA in 2010 by the World
Trade organization.

Fig. 7: LandscapeEconomyChittagong seaport (nerve center of Bangladesh
economy) and Mongla seaport are two main sea-

9Planning commission of Bangladesh, Ministry ofPlanning (2010) in Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh Making Vision 2021 a Reality, projected that

especially useful during periods of extensive
flooding. Bangladesh is a wetland with a dense
network of 700 rivers, canals and tributaries crisscrossing the country. Ministry of Communications(2010), reported that inland waterway covered
16% of annual freight transport volume in 2005.
World Bank, 2011 reported that inland ports in
Bangladesh handle about 40% of the nation’s foreign trade.

the contribution of agriculture sector will be 15%(22% in 2009) by 2021, industry sector will be
40% (29% in 2009) in which manufacturing industry will be 30% (17% in 2009) by 2021 andservice sector will be 45% (49% in 2009) in total
GDP by 2021.

Transport and communication
The transport sector of Bangladesh consists of avariety of modes. Three modes of surface
transport, i.e. road, railway and water are widelyused in carrying both passengers and cargo. 70%of the country's total passenger and cargo volume
is carried by mechanized road transport mode, e.g.
the 4.8 km long Bangabandhu Bridge (11th longest
bridge in the world when constructed in 1998) establishing a strategic link between the east and thewest part of Bangladesh and generating multifaceted benefits to the people. Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD, 2001) reported that the modal shareof road sector significantly increased from 60%(Fifth Five Year Plan, 1997-2002) to more than
80% due to the construction of this bridge. In addition this bridge promotes inter-regional tradeFig. 10: Traffic situation in Dhaka.
There are now 11 operational airports in
Bangladesh. Of these, the airports at Dhaka,
Chittagong and Sylhet serve international route.

Fig. 9: Rupsha Bridge, Khulna
and facilitating transmission of electricity and natural gas and telecommunication links. According
to the Ministry of Communications (2010), Bangladesh Railways handled approximately 4% andinland waterway about 8% of the national passenger transport volume in 2005. Being cheap, safe,and environment friendly; inland water transportation is often the only mode that serves the poor,

Fig. 11: Rural transport10

2025. About 3.3 billion tons of coal reserves comprising of 5 deposits at depths of 118-1,158 meters have been discovered so far. Out of which 4
deposits (118-509 meters) are extractable at present, being used mainly for one thermal power
plant. Due to shortage of natural gas, the government has focused on diversification of energy
source for power generation. Government hasplanned to install two coal-based power plants
which will contribute about 2,600MW (1,300MWeach) by 2015 to the national supply. The government, with the technical assistance of Russia, hasmade effective arrangement to establish a nuclear
power plant with a capacity of 1,000MW by 2016.

Power and Energy
Electricity is a key ingredient of socio-economic
development of the country. In 2010, 47% of thetotal population had access to the power supply.
The government in power system master plan,2005 projected that about 62% and 72% of population access to electricity will be achieved by2012 and 2014 respectively (Ministry of Planning,2010). In order to meet the government’s projection, generation growth rate should be 10% per
year. GOB has declared its vision for power sector
in 2010, total installed capacity of plant would be
7,000MW by the year of 2013, 8,000MW by2015 and 20,000MW by 2021 to make the country
free from load-shedding. Per capita electricity
consumption was 220kWh in 2009 and it should
be increased to 600kWh by 2021 to meet the vision. 63% of annual total power generation comesfrom public entities in which 46% from Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) and private entities contribute the rest of 37% of total
annual generation in 2010.

Exploration activities carried out so far could
not discover any significant oil deposit. Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) has
approved national renewable energy policy (2008)
that 5% of the total generation (450MW) would
be added by 2015 and 10% of the total generation(1,600MW) by 2020 from renewable sources(Ministry of Planning, 2010).

Fig. 12: Khulna Power plantFig. 13: Roof-top solar panel of a rural house
The government has planned to overcome
possible difficulties and ensure the electricity for
all by 2021 through public and private partnership(PPP).

The National Energy Policy (Ministry ofPower, Energy and Mineral Resources, 2004) reported that biomass fuels play an important role inmeeting the total energy need of the country. Unplanned and uncontrolled consumption of biomass
fuels beyond their regenerative capacity is causing
environmental degradation.

Bangladesh has a significant reserve of natural gas (20.5 trillion cubic feet) (Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, 2004) which is
the main fuel (88%) for power generation. Energy
and power division of Bangladesh (2010) indicates that the existing gas reserves will be able tomeet the gas demand up to 2016 though with thepresent production capacity, it cannot meet theincreasing demand of 5.6 billion cubic feet by11

Background of “Low-carbon
Society”
serves the potential of CO2 emission reduction
but also efficient energy system for the country
to proceed towards economic development.
Bangladesh needs to shift to a low carbon development paradigm to facilitate the effective medium and long-term strategies for economic development and carbon trade.

Concept of low-carbon society (LCS)
Low-carbon society in a developing country is acombined concept that can develop a sustainablemodel which can meet economic development,
life style improvements, climate change effects
mitigation through technology transfer, using renewable energy, utilizing funding and finally capacity building which contributes to the sustainable development of the total society. In that society, equal attention will be paid on environmental
protection as well as other socio-economic security. The low-carbon society has some following
attributes:

Mitigation is not mandatory for Bangladesh,however, for survival of many of the citizens,
GDP growth must be accelerated. As a result therequirement of energy services will substantially
increase in the coming years. Also, the country
will emit more CO2 in comparison with the current emission. Therefore, mitigation measures
should be identified and implemented to retain
the current emission intensity, which can be increased in some decades.

- Takes actions that are compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of allgroups within society are met.
- Makes an equitable contribution towards theglobal effort to stabilize atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas at a level that will avoid dangerous
climate change through deep cuts in global
emission.
- Demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency

and uses low carbon energy sources and production technologies.
- Adopts patterns of consumption and behavior

that are consistent with low level of greenhouse gas emission.

Low-Carbon Society for Bangladesh- Suppress CO2 emission increase.
- Energy development (better energy efficiency,

low-carbon energy mix etc.).
- Enhance

economic growth (promote power
supply with efficient energy management).

- Enlarge

national development opportunity toenhance green economy.

- Poverty reduction by green development.
- Lessen the damages of climate change in thelong-run.

Low-carbon society concept not only

Fig. 14: Natural disasters and man-made activities
12Climate change actions
in Bangladesh
Adaptation to Climate Change
Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country to climate change impacts in the world. Cyclones,
storm surges, floods are now becoming so frequent and will be more severe in the upcoming
years. Almost all sectors are likely to be affectedby climate change. IPCC (2007) projected impact
of climate change to Bangladesh as follows.
-

1 meter rise in sea-level will inundate 20%of landmass by 2100.

-

Changes in precipitation pattern will lose
about 8% of rice and 32% of wheat production through enhancing flood pollute groundwater, increase salinity in crop land resulting by 2050.

-

Temperature increases 1.4⁰C to 5.8⁰C will
induce cyclone, drought etc.

Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) supports a number of climate change activities
such as mitigation and technology transfer.

-

GEF (Global Environment Facility) TrustFund prioritizes adaptation.

-

Adaptation Fund (AF) under Kyoto Protocol
assists developing countries to carry out“concrete” adaptation plan.

GOB prepared the emission inventory andsubmitted to UNFCCC in 1994. The government
has formulated the National Adaptation Plan of
Actions (NAPA) and submitted to UNFCCC in2005 to get Official Development Assistance(ODA) through LDCF. Implementation of NAPA
is in process. Under the clean development mechanism (CDM), Bangladesh has established two
authorities, National CDM Board and National
CDM Committee and accepted four projects in
waste and energy sectors in Bangladesh.

Therefore, it is now inevitable to prepare adaptation plan against climate change to save thepeople and economy of Bangladesh. The workpressure will be reduced if there is a concrete national climate change policy. However, there is noconcrete national climate change policy in Bangladesh that specifically aims the climate changerisks.

The government has formulated Bangladesh
Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
(BCCSAP), 2008 which has been revised in 2009.
BCCSAP 2009 has identified six priority themes(T):

Bangladesh government pays attention on climate change vulnerability with a vision to eradicate poverty and achieve economic and social
wellbeing, through a Pro-Poor Climate Resilient
Strategy. This strategy focuses on the adaptationand disaster risk reduction and also low carbon
development, mitigation and technology transfer
to build the capacity and spirit to meet the climatechange challenges in the next 20 to 25 years. This
strategy is mainly based on the four building
blocks of the Bali Action Plan:
1) food security, 2) water security, 3) energy security, 4) livelihood security.
UNFCCC has launched four adaptation funds
for developing countries, include:--

Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF)
helps to prepare National Adaptation Plan of
Actions (NAPA).
13-

T1. Food security;-

T2. Social protection and health;-

T3. Comprehensive disaster management
infrastructure;-

T4. Research and knowledge management;-

T5. Mitigation and low carbon development and-T6.
Capacity building and institutional
strengthening

Existing development policies
in Bangladesh
Policy targets for socio-economic development-

Institute administrative, financial and legal reform in Petrobangla and companies.

Millennium Development Goals (MDG) (General
Economic Division, Planning Commission, GOB,
2009) -Target (2015) (selected issues):-

Reduce system loss and improve use efficiency.

-

Improve supply security of petroleum
products.

-

Encourage public-private partnership for
Liquid Nitrogen Gas (LNG) import andmarketing.

-Exploration and distribution of indigenous oil and gas.

-

Expand Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) use
for domestic consumption to discourage
piped gas.

-

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger (below US$1 per day (PPP-values) Reduce poverty level from 39% (2009) to
29% .

-

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education. Net Enrolment Ratio in Primary Education 100%.

-

Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women. Share of women in wage
employment in the non-agricultural sector
from 24.6% (2008) to 50%.

-

The government’s Power System Master
Plan (2005) projects that 62% and 72% access toGoal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainabil- power will be achieved in FY-2012 and FYity. Proportion of land area covered by for- 2014 respectively (Ministry of Planning, 2010).
est (tree cover) 19.2% (tree density 10%) to
The following objectives for the sector have
20% with tree density 70%.
been aimed:

National Energy Policy and vision on
power sector in Bangladesh
In 2004, The Government of Bangladesh has
released a draft, entitled as National Energy
Policy (NEP). The NEP refers to “The importance of energy in socio-economic development” (Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral
Resources, 2004).
Considering the past experience, the objectives and targets are pointed for energy sector
as Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) 2011-2015(Ministry of Planning, 2010) with Vision 2021,
as follows:--

Enhance and upgrade exploration and development of existing, new gas fields andpossible gas resources into proven reserves.

-

Ensuring energy security.

-

Improving the security, reliability and quality of electricity supply.

-

Making the power sector financially viable
and facilitating economic growth.

-

Increasing the sector’s efficiency and introducing a new corporate culture in the power
sector entities.

-

Using natural gas, coal and oil as the primary
fuels for electricity generation.

-

Ensuring a reasonable and affordable pricefor electricity and private sector participation.

GOB has defined its vision and policy statement in February 2000, “Electricity for all by2021” in phases with the direction of the Article
16 of “The Constitution of the People’s Republicof Bangladesh”, to eliminate the inequality between the urban and rural areas standard of living.
Government’s Vision towards 2021 for electricity

Integrate reservoir management in bothpublic and private gas companies to provide reservoir data collection and supply
security.

14

production is “electricity for all” by producing
8,500MW by 2013, 11,500MW by 2015 &
20,000MW by 2021.
Possibilities:-

Coal-based power plants using domestic andimported coal.

-Ruppoor Nuclear Power Plant.

-

Availability of new gas both offshore andonshore.

-Public-Private Partnership Projects.

-

Prospect of participation of local investors inthe sector.

Renewable Energy Policy, 2008
Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Power division (2008) has publishedthe National Renewable Energy Policy draft.
The aims of renewable energy policy are to set
policies aiming for developing renewable energy
resources (solar, wind, hydro) to meet 5% of thetotal power demand by 2015 and 10% by 2020.
-

-

-

-

Couple the potential of renewable energy
resources and distribution of renewable energy technologies in rural, peri-urban andurban areas.
Encourage and facilitate both public and private sector investment in renewable energy
projects.
Develop sustainable energy supplies.
Scale up contributions of renewable energy
to electricity production and heat energy.
Promote appropriate, efficient and environment friendly use of renewable energy.
Create enabling environment and legal support to encourage the use of renewable energy.
Promote development of local technology inthe field of renewable energy.
Promote clean energy for CDM.

National Agriculture Policy (NAP),
1999
Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has formulated
policy document in 1999 in order to provide
proper guidelines for various development activities relating to crop sector, which is the largest

15

sector of agriculture. NAP has an overall objective, 18 subsidiary objectives and 18 programme
areas (MoA, 2006). The overall objective of thenational agriculture policy is to make the nation
self-sufficient in food through increasing production of all crops including cereals and ensure
a dependable food security system for all. Policy
priority areas include crop production, fertilizer,
irrigation, agricultural research, land use and soon. The MoA prepared the New Agricultural
Extension Policy (NAEP) in 1996 in accordancewith the agricultural policies and priorities set
out in the fifteen-year perspective plan 19952010. The main goal of NAEP is to encourage
the various partners and agencies within the national agricultural extension system to provide
efficient and effective services which complement and reinforce each other in an effort to increase the efficiency and productivity of agriculture in Bangladesh.
The government also implementing programmes under agricultural policies (1999) in
Bangladesh have expanded the use of highyielding variety of rice seeds, fertilizers andshallow tube-wells for irrigation. Irrigation coverage increased dramatically from 22.5% in
1980-81 to 51.5% in 2000-01 (Kumar, 2008).
The crop sector accounts for 12% of GDP andoccupies over three-quarters of the cropped area.
This development strategy results, rice production tripled from 11 million tonnes in 1972 withan annual growth rate of about 3% during 1990
to 32 million tonnes in 2009 and wheat exceeded
production of 2 million. Maize production increased by 138% during the period 1995/96 to
1997/98 (Farouque, 2005).
Bangladesh has some future targets on agriculture that are as follows:
1) Self-sufficiency in food: 2013
2) Ensuring food security: 2017(a+a+n)(a+a+n=Availability, accessibility and nutrition).
According to the National Commission ofAgriculture report (unpublished), 7% of GDP
growth need of 3.1% increase in demand forfood crops. Targets are to increase storage capacities by building additional sizes of 50,000
tonnes by 2015 and 1 million ton by 2021 to facilitate safe storage of rice.

Research and Development for productivity
increase making up to 20% higher production of
hybrid rice through technological progress andstress tolerant varieties (salt and drought tolerance
for rice as well as heat tolerance for wheat)(Ministry of Planning, 2010).

jectives include preserving existing values, conserving plants and animal variety and ensuring
maximum benefit to local people (MoA, 2006).
According to the Forest Act of 1927, 18% or 2.6
million hectares of forest land mass of the country
is being managed by the Forest Department of
Bangladesh. However, according to the Forest Department, recently this department controls 10.3%of land surface. In forestry sector, to sustain theecological balance and to increase the employment opportunity from social and agro forestry
expansion projects, increment about 2.84 million
hectares of tree cover is of prime policy in this
sector. The target is to increase forest cover 20%
by 2021.

National Livestock Policy, 2005
A National Livestock Policy (Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, 2007) was drafted in 1992, but
it was not officially approved. Recently, the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock has prepared new
National Livestock Policy in 2005. There are two
distinct objectives- supply of adequate livestockand livestock products for human consumption
and supply of animal power and animal wastes forcrop production and product processing (MoA,2006).

National Land Use Policy, 2001
The Ministry of Land has prepared the National
Land Use Policy (NLUP) to fill-up an important
policy gap in the country. The NLUP deals withland uses for several purposes including agriculture (crop production, fishery and livestock),housing, forestry, industrialization, railways androads etc.

Significant growth in the livestock sector has
been observed, in which main contributor is commercial poultry sector. The demand for livestock
products will be increased through the growing
population, restrained growth of per capita income
and higher income elasticity. The demand for
milk, eggs, and mutton are increased by 6%,
5.2%, and 5.6% respectively with the growth rateof 4.4%. Annual growth rate for sheep and goat
will be about 2%. There is a huge gap of 2 and 1/2
times, higher than country’s milk production level,
estimated in 2002. Therefore the target is to bridging this huge gap by 2021.

The Land Use Policy aims to ensure land use
synchronization with the natural environment. The
policy introduced a ‘zoning’ system in order toensure the best use of land in different parts of thecountry according to their local geological differences to logically control the unplanned expansionof residential, industrial and commercial constructions. The main areas of land use in Bangladesh
are agriculture, housing, forests, rivers, irrigationand sewerage canals, ponds, railways, commercial
and industrial establishments, tea estates, rubber
fields, horticulture gardens, the coastal belt, sandy
riverbeds and char areas (MoEF, 2005).
Agricultural land is limited and is reducing
about 1% per annum (MoEF, 2010). However,
future growth of this sector will depend on theincrement of the fertility of the land and efficiencyof the irrigation. Also fallow land should be taken
into consideration to expand the harvested crop
land area. Urban growth rate is so alarming andhas grown from 5% in 1961 to 25% in 2005.
Therefore, the target is to reduce the burden of
urban environment, decentralize the urban infrastructure and expand urban area with efficient urban planning and provide better urban facilities by
2021 (MoEF, 2010).

National Forest Policy, 1994
GOB has promulgated the National Forest Policy
in 1994 and approved the Forestry Sector Masterplan from 1995 to 2015. Both the documents haveemphasized the afforestation program in the country with 20% coverage and increase the protectedareas by 10% of the reserve forest land targeted in
the Master plan by 2015 through the coordinatedefforts of Government Organization (GO), Non
Government Organizations (NGOs) and active
participation of the people. One of the key objectives of the policy is to conserve soil and water
resources and strengthening agriculture sector
with the expansion of agro-forestry.
The Forestry Master Plan integrates various
programmes for enhancing the involvement ofrural population in forest sector activities. Its ob-

16Future Socio-economic scenarios
for ExSS and AFOLUB modeltimes from 2025BaU than in 2005. Freighttransport demand will be increased about 4.5
times with the increment of modal share of roadvehicle which has the longer trip distance thanother modes in 2025BaU.

Socio-economic indicators
Quantified socio-economic activity level in 2025
is shown in Table 1 and 2. The population will be
increased 1.3 times and GDP will be increased 3.5

Table 1: Estimated socio-economic indicators in 2025
Parameter

2005

2025BaU

2025CM

140
29
4
9

180
43
14
32

180
43
14
32

1.3
1.5
3.6
3.6

1.3
1.5
3.6
3.6

Primary industry (trillion taka)

2

5

5

2.7

2.7

Secondary industry (trillion taka)

4

15

15

3.8

3.8

Tertiary industry (trillion taka)
Passenger transport demand (billion
passenger-km)

3

12

12

3.9

3.9

361

663

617

1.8

1.7

20

91

91

4.5

4.5

Population (million)
No. of households (million)
GDP (trillion taka)
Gross output (trillion taka)

Freight transport demand (billion
ton-km)Output from agriculture and forestry will bedecreased to 11% in 2025 from 16% in 2005 due
to migrating the employment tendency from agriculture to industry or other service sector. Output

2025BaU/2005 2025CM/2005

from secondary industry will be increased by 3.8
times and contributes about 36% of the total output for the expansion of this industry in future by2025.

Table 2: Output by industries in 2025

Industry

Output (billion Taka)

Ratio

Composition percentage

2005

2025

2025/2005

2005

2025

Agriculture and forestry

1

4

2.5

16%

11%

Fishing

0

1

3.2

5%

4%

Minning and Quarrying

0

1

3.9

2%

2%

Manufacturing

3

12

3.8

34%

36%

Construction

1

3

3.8

7%

8%

Electricity, gas & water

0

1

4.3

1%

2%

Wholesale and retail trade

1

2

3.5

8%

8%

Transport services

1

2

3.2

7%

6%

Real estate & renting business

0

2

4.0

6%

6%

Education and Health

0

1

4.7

3%

3%

Government services

0

1

5.4

2%

3%

Other private services

1

3

4.2

9%

10%

Total

9

32

3.6

100%

100%

17

Population

50

Households (million)

Population in (million)

Population of Bangladesh in 2025 was collectedfrom “Sectoral Need-based Projections in Bangladesh” (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2006).
The population will reach 180 million in 2025
from 139 million (2005) (see Fig. 15).
200
150

40
30
20
10

100

0

50

2005

0
2005

2010

2020

2025

Fig. 16: Number of households

2025

Year

Fig. 15: Population

Households
This study assumes that in 2025 persons perhousehold will be 4 persons in urban and 4.5 persons in rural households (4.9 persons in 2005). In
2025 there will be a significant increase in number of households, with a slight decrease in average number of persons per household and population increase. Number of households will risefrom 29 million (2005) to 43 million in 2025
(Fig. 16).

In order to modeling energy demand andCO2 emission in future, several quantitative socio-economic assumptions were required as a premise. Socio-economic development strategies ofBangladesh are available in “Outline Perspective
Plan of Bangladesh 2010-2021” (Ministry ofPlanning, 2010). Using above assumptions, detailed and consistent socio-economic indicators
were projected using Extended Snap-shot (ExSS)
tool.
Assumptions for the future socio-economic
scenarios development by using ExSS, are described in Table 3.

Table 3: Socio-economic assumptions in 2025
Indicator

Assumption in 2025

Trend towards 2025

Population

In 2025 population will be 180 million (139
million, 2005).

Demographic composition

In 2025 age group (0-14) will be 24% (34% in Share of age group (0-14) will be decreased and age2005), age group (15-64) 70% (59% in 2005), group (15-64) will be increased by 2025.

Population distribution

age group (65+) 6% (6% in 2005).
Urbanization rate will be increased from 25% People will migrate to urban centers in search for(2005) to 41% in 2025.
employment opportunities in industry or service sector.

In 2025 it will be 4 and 4.5 urban and rural
Average number of persons perhousehold respectively (average 4.9 in 2005
householdfor both household).
Road vehicle-3% (2% in 2005), railway0.1% (same as 2005), waterway- 0.2% (sameModal shareas 2005), walk- 30% (49% in 2005) andbicycle- 65% (49% in 2005) in 2025.
Average annual growth rate 7%.
GDP

Industrial structure

Economic development will proceed throughindustrialization rather than agriculture.

18

1.45% increase per annum (2005-2025).

Average number of persons per household will bedecreased by 2025.
Modal share of road vehicle and bicycle mode will be
increased by 2025.

Ministry of Finance reported that, GDP is average 6%
from 2005 to 2010 and it will be increased 8% by 2015.
In 2025, primary industry output will be decreased from
21% to 15% (2005), secondary industry output andtertiary industry output will be increased to 48% from45% (2005) and to 37% from 34% (2005).

Economyof different industrial sectors.

In 2025, GDP will be 14,351 billion taka which results about 3.65 times larger than in 2005. ExSS
applies input-output (IO) analysis to project the future industrial structure. Table 4 shows changes indemand side of macro-economic indicators. Table
5 shows the future changes in private consumption

Fig. 17 shows output from industries. The shareof primary industry will be decreased from 21%(2005) to 15% in 2025. Share of secondary industry
will be increased from 45% (2005) to 48% and tertiary industry from 34% (2005) to 37% in 2025.

Table 4: Macro-economic indicators (billion taka)
Indicator

2005

2025

2005/2025

GDP
GDP/capita (thousand
taka)
Private consumption

3,933

14,351

3.6

28

80

2.8

3,111

12,0283.9

Government consumption

204

788

3.9

Fixed capital formation

919

3,554

3.9

Export

756

2,922

3.9

Import

1,057

4,940

4.7

35,000

Table 5: Share of private consumption
Industry
Agriculture and forestry
Fishing
Minning and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Electricity, gas & water
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport services
Real estate & renting
business
Education and Health
Government services
Other private services
Total

2005
10%
4%
3%
56%
0%
2%
0%
3%

2025
5%
2%
4%
57%
0%
3%
0%
1%

10%

11%

4%
1%
7%
100%

6%
3%
9%
100%

Other private services
Government services

30,000

Output from industries (billion taka)

Education and HealthReal estate & renting business

25,000Transport services
20,000Wholesale and retail trade
Electricity, gas & water

15,000Construction
Manufacturing and Commercial
goods

10,000

Minning and Quarrying
5,000

Fishing
Agriculture and forestry

0
2005

2025

Fig. 17: Output from industries
19Passenger transportation

Freight transportation

The passenger transport demand in Bangladesh
will be increased about 1.8 times from 361 billion
passenger-km in 2005 to 663 billion passengerkm in 2025BaU. In 2025CM, transport volume
will be slightly decreased to 617 billion passenger-km by adopting some low-carbon measures (seeFig. 18).

Freight transport demand is also increased from
20 billion ton-km (2005) to 91 billion ton-km in
2025BaU (see Fig. 19) because of growth of industries.
In 2025BaU, freight transport demand will be
increased about 4.5 times larger than in 2005. The
transport demand depends on the industrial output
which is 3.6 times (2025) larger than in 2005.
Transport demand will be increased more thanincrease of output of industry because modal
share of the road vehicles increased rather thanfreight waterway and railway for freight transport
which will have the longer distance than other
mode.

600

Bicycle

500

Walk

400

Waterway

300

Train

200

Large andsmallvehicle100

Freight transport demand (billion ton-km)

Passenger transport demnad (billion passenger-km)

700

100

0
2005

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 18: Passenger transport demand

90
80

Waterway

70
60

Railway50
40

Large andsmallvehicle30
20

10

In 2025BaU, this study assumes that passenger
transport modal share of vehicle and bicycle will
be increased while share of walk is reduced. Private transport mode in road vehicle will be increased due to income growth and shortfall of
public transport development. However, urban
structure is assumed to be more compact than2005, the average trip distances of road vehicle
will be shorter than other transport in 2025BaU.
In 2025CM, under low-carbon measures, modal shift to railway was introduced. In addition,pedestrian road for walk and bicycle can be recommended as potential measure to reduce traffic
jam and provide people a convenient and safe
transport. Thus, 2025CM assumed modal share ofwalk will also be increased from BaU.

20

0

2005

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 19: Freight transport demandFig. 20: Freight transportcreased to 12.6 million hectare in 2020 and 12.7
million hectare in 2025 respectively from 11.8
million hectare in 2010. This study simulates allother crops harvested area based on the same procedure. All other crops harvested area except sugar crop, keeping constant will be increased by
2025.

Crop harvested area

Harvested crop area (000ha)

For the future projection on crop harvested area,
this study considers the historical trend of production of individual crop from different literature
surveys. According to the historical trend of therice harvested area from 1970 to 2000, a drastic
increment was observed of area from 9 million
hectare to 10.7 million hectares. However, from2000 to 2005, harvested area was slightly decreased. Again, from 2005 the rice harvested area
was increased significantly from 10.5 million hectares to 11.3 million hectares and continued to11.4 million hectares until year 2009. On the basisof the trend from previous to current in crop production, crop harvested area and also development
strategies on crop production in MoEF (2010),
this study assumes and projects the crop harvested
area until 2025 for Bangladesh, shown in Fig. 21
and 22.

1000
800
600

400
200
0
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Oil crops (oilseeds)

This study estimates crop harvested area by
dividing the crop production (ton) by crop yield(ton/ha).
Harvested crop area (000ha)

1200

Year

Sugar crops(sugarcane)
Other crops(jute+tea+pulses+tobacco+other fibres)

Fig. 22: Projected other crop harvested
area from 2000 to 2025

14000
12000
10000

Livestock number

8000“Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh Making
Vision 2021 a reality”, (Ministry of Planning,2010) has projected future livestock number by2015 and 2021. According to that report, recently,
milk, egg and mutton demand has increased by
6%, 5.2% and 5.6% respectively. Based on suchassumption, cattle, poultry and goat number are
increased and buffalo and sheep number are kept
almost constant by 2025 and projected livestocknumber by 2025 are shown in Fig. 23 and 24.

6000
4000
2000
0
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025

Rice

Year

wheat
Other coarse grain(maize+barley+other cereal-millet,shorgum)
Vegetables(vegetable+fruits+spices+potato)Fig. 21: Projected crop harvested areafrom 2000 to 2025
According to MoEF (2010) rice production in
Bangladesh is expected to further increase from30.7 million tonnes in 2007 to 35.4 million tonnes
in 2015 and 36.8 million tonnes in 2021 respectively. This study extrapolates (see Fig. 21 and 22)
the production data on 2025 by using the annual
average growth rate from 2015 to 2021. Using
these projected rice production data, this study
projects the rice harvested area that will be in-21

In this report, data on livestock and poultry
number in 2015 is projected by using annual average growth rate from 2010 to 2015 and also projection on 2015, 2020 and 2025 used the same annual average growth rate from 2015 to 2021 respectively. For future projection of cattle and buffalo number from year 2015 to year 2025, the average annual growth rate of bovine animal fromthe projection table mentioned in the “Outline
Perspective Plan of Bangladesh Making Vision
2021 a reality, 2010”, is used. This study considers that bovine animals include cattle and buffalo.

Livestock number (million)

30

Other landuse change

25

On the basis of above mentioned qualitative information from different literatures, this study projects the landuse change by 2025, shown in Fig.
25. Net cropped land will be decreased to 8.4 million hectare by 2025 from 8.8 million hectare in
2000. Projection of crop land in 2015 used annual
average growth rate from 2009 to 2010. In 2020
and 2025, the area will be decreased by using
growth rate from 2005-2010 to keep the consistency of growth. Therefore, crop land area will
be decreased to face the growth of infrastructuredevelopment due to the population growth.

20
15
10
5
0

2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Milk Cattle
Sheep

Beef Cattle
Goat

Buffallo

16,000Landuse area (000ha)

Fig. 23: Projected livestock number from2000 to 2025

Poultry number (million)

The cattle and buffalo number will be increased from 23 and 1.3 million in 2010 to 30 and
1.7 million by 2025 respectively. In addition, future projection of sheep and goat number fromyear 2015 to year 2025, the average annual
growth rate of sheep and goat from the projection
table mentioned in the above report, is used. In
this study, goat number has significantly increased
from 22.8 million in 2010 to 28 million by 2025.

14,00012,00010,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

0
2000 2005 2006 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Inland water
Other land
Crop land
Grassland

Forestland

Fig. 25: Projected other landuse change from2000 to 2025

300
250

Future projection of forest land in 2015 will
use the annual average growth rate from 2000 to2010. In 2020, production forest will be increased
by 20% as taken from the projection data of risingof productive forest cover by 2021 from the reportof “Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh Making Vision 2021 a reality, 2010”. Other forest
types are increased by using annual average
growth rate of 2005-2010. By 2025, all other forest types are projected based on the annual average growth rate of 2000-2005.

200
150
100

50
0

2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Chicken
Duck

Fig. 24: Projected poultry number from 2000 to
2025

Other land is defined as built up (urban andrural settlements, highways and others), wooded
land and range land. Settlement will be increased
drastically from 2.1 million hectare in 2000 to 2.6
million hectares by 2025 to meet the growing demand of housing. This study considers constant
growth of grass land and inland water land without taking into account natural disaster and forest
fire.

Future projection of chicken and duck number from year 2015 to year 2025 will follow thesame procedure. Here, annual average growth rateof poultry was used as this study considers that it
includes both chicken and duck number. Chicken
number will be increased to 27 million by 2025.

22

Energy demand and GHG emission
ergy demand of transport sectors also increased
significantly. Passenger transport demand will increase about 1.8 times and freight transport demand will increase about 4.5 times in 2025BaU
from 2005, resulted 2.8 and 4.2 times higher energy demand in BaU2025 than 2005 respectively.

Energy demand (primary and final)
Projected result shows the total primary energy
demand will increase from 20.5Mtoe in 2005 to
95.4Mtoe in 2025BaU, or about 4.6 times larger
than 2005. By adopting energy-efficient lowcarbon measures, energy demand will be decreased to 63.7Mtoe in 2025CM from 2025BaU(see Fig. 26).

Energy consumption of industrial sector is
3.7Mtoe and transport sector is 1.5Mtoe of thetotal final energy demand in 2005 and increased
about 3.5 times due to the increment of industrial
production and 3.5 times due to rapid transport
growth respectively (see Fig. 27).

In 2005, dominating energy source was biomass which covered about 40% of total energy
demand and the second was natural gas in 2005.
This structure will be changed in 2025BaU. Coal
consumption increased from 2% in 2005 to about
28% in 2025BaU, which are mainly consumed byindustrial and power sector. This study shows the
reduction of share of traditional biomass from40% (2005) to 16% in 2025BaU.

In 2025CM, share of residential sector will be
66%, same as 2025BaU. Transport sector willconsume about 6% and commercial sector 4% of
the total energy demand.
70

100

Biomass

80

Solar andWind

70

Nuclear

60
50

Hydro

40

Gas

30

Oil

20

Industry

60

Final energy demand (Mtoe)

Primary energy demand (Mtoe)

90

50

Commercial

40

Residential
30

Freight
Transport

20

10

10

Passenger
Transport

Coal

0
2005

2025
BaU

0

2025
CM

2005

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 27: Sectoral final energy demandFig. 26: Primary energy demand by fuel type(excluding non-energy use)

Power sector

In demand side, largest share of energy was
consumed by residential sector of about 68% in2005 will be decreased to 66% in 2025BaU byusing improved energy efficiency of household
electric devices and electricity supply.

Bangladesh has potential amount of coal reserves,to meet the government’s target in power sector,
coal will be the possible fuel instead of natural gas
for electricity generation. Fig. 28 shows the growing usage of coal in 2025 for the generation ofelectricity to meet the target of the government

Due to the increased demand of transport, en-

23

50

Energy demand in power sector (Mtoe)

that ensure electricity for all by 2021 (MoEF,
2010). In 2025BaU, share of coal consumption
will be increased drastically and only hydro isconsidered as renewable energy for power generation.
This study also recommends the alternativefuel to reduce the CO2 emission in 2025CM. This
study introduces nuclear energy and renewables(solar and wind) and reduced share of coal for the
reduction of CO2 emission. However, in 2025CM
the projected share of nuclear energy was not followed in “Outline Perspective Plan of Bangladesh, Making Vision 2021 a reality”, (Ministry ofPlanning, 2010) due to the indeterminate future of
the nuclear power plant.

Solar&
wind

40

Nuclear

30

Hydro
Gas

20

Oil
10

Coal
0
2005

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 28: Energy demand by fuel in power sector

Industrial sector

Due to the shortage of natural gas reserves,
this study estimates about 40% decrease with applying feasible countermeasures in this sector in
2025CM. Also, coal and oil usage will be decreased by 30% and 23% respectively with similarelectricity usage in 2025CM.

Energy demand in industrial sector (shown in
Fig. 29) will be increased about 3.5 times with
74% increase of energy demand in manufacturingindustry in 2025BaU from 2005. In 2025BaU,
natural gas will contribute largest share of 74%
increase of energy demand.
12

Electricity

Energy demand (Mtoe)

10

8

Biomass

6

Gas

4

Oil

2
Coal
0

2005

2025CM

2025BaU

Fig. 29: Energy demand by fuel in power sector24

CO2 emission from energy sector

300

The CO2 emission will be increased from
31.7MtCO2 in 2005 to 240.7MtCO2 in 2025BaU.
CO2 emission from different sectors is shown in
Fig. 30.

Freighttransport
sectorCO2 emission (MtCO2eq)

250

In 2025BaU, the main contributor of CO2
emission is residential and emits about 63% of
total emission. Industrial sector, commercial sector and transport sector cover 23%, 7% and 7%
respectively. In 2025BaU, CO2 emission is increased more than GDP growth rate. The reasonsare as follow: 1) In residential sector, biomass
share is reduced and other fuels especially gas
and coal (power sector) are increased. (see appendix). Therefore, even though the final energy
demand was increased by only 3.7 times however, CO2 emission was increased more about 12.6
times. 2) In power supply sector, coal increased
its share (0% to 53%) (see appendix) while gas
reduced from 88% to 43%.

200

Passenger
transport
sector150

Industrial
sector100

Commercial
sector50

Residential
sector0
2005

In 2025CM, potential of emission reduction
is about 45% of 2025BaU through introducing
mitigation measures in 2025CM.

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 30: CO2 emission from energy sector

GHG emission from agriculture

trend would be continued up to 2025. About 38%
of N2O emission will be increased by 2025 compared to the emission in 2000 due to the increased dependency on the utilization of artificial
fertilizer (mainly nitrogenous) to manage soil
fertility and increment of crop yield. Livestock
manure will contribute about 8.2MtCO2eq of
N2O emission in 2025 from 6MtCO2eq in 2000.
In BaU case, total GHG emission in total agriculture sector will be increased about 1.4 times or
28% by 2025 from total GHG emission in 2000.

Flooded agricultural land is the main source ofCH4 emission and nitrogenous fertilizer also contributes to N2O emission in agricultural sector of
Bangladesh. This study estimates GHG (CO2,CH4 and N2O) emission from agriculture sector
from 2000 to 2025, shown in Fig. 32. In this sector, the emission sources of rice paddy cultivation, enteric fermentation and manure management causes CH4 emission and managed soil with
applying nitrogen fertilizer and manure management emits N2O. In Bangladesh, enteric fermentation accounted of highest amount of emission
in agriculture about 11MtCO2eq. of CH4 in 2000.
The share of irrigated rice paddy cultivation was
only 40% in 2000, emitted 7MtCO2eq, which
about 18% of the total emission. Manure management (livestock dung and urine) contributed
11MtCO2eq of N2O, which shared 65% of thetotal N2O emission in this sector. Application of
nitrogen fertilizer in the context of managed soil,
another source of N2O emission contributed
about 6MtCO2eq/yr. The GHG emission gradually increased to 47MtCO2eq in 2010 from 41
MtCO2eq in 2000. It was assumed that increment

Fig. 31: Flooded paddy land25

60Managed soils
(N2O)
(N2O)

GHG emission (MtCO2eq)

50

Rice paddy
(CH4)
(CH4)

40

Manure
(N2O)
(N O)

30

2

20

Manure
(CH4)
(CH )
4

10
0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Enteric
fermentation
(CH4)
(CH4)

Year

Fig. 32: Projected GHG emission from agriculture sector from 2000-2025

GHG emission from LULUCF sector
This study estimates CO2 emission from LULUCF
sector in Bangladesh from 2000 to 2025, shown in
Fig. 33. Net emission from LULUCF sector was
estimated about 13MtCO2eq in 2000, mainly emitted from the forest and grassland conversion(3.6MtCO2eq), emission and removal from soil
(16MtCO2eq) and emission ranges in forest andother woody biomass stocks as carbon sequestration (5.9MtCO2eq). The emission was estimated tosignificant increase of 12% by 2010, due to substantial decrease in cropland and forestland area

and considerable increase in settlement for growing population from 2000 to 2010. This trend will
be discontinued by decreasing the emission to
12MtCO2eq and 13MtCO2eq by 2020 and 2025
from 15MtCO2eq in 2010, with the government’s
several development strategies, especially 20%
increment of production forest by 2021. Such development actions are expected to contribute in
net sequestration of CO2, which amounted to -6.4
and -6.4MtCO2eq, in 2020 and 2025 respectively.

GHG emission (MtCO2eq)

25
LULUCF Emission andremovals from soils

20
15

LULUCF Forest and grassland
conversion (excl. peatland)

10

5
0

LULUCF Changes in forest
and other woody biomass
stocks

-5
-10

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

Fig. 33: Projected GHG emission from LULUCF sector from 2000-202526

Total GHG emission from and agricul- agriculture and LULUCF sectors from 2000 to
2025 is shown in Fig. 34. The trend shows gradualture and LULUCF sector
increment from 2000 to 2025 except 2015, estimated the same emission as 2010 emission level.

The net total GHG emission in Bangladesh from80

GHG emission (MtCO2eq)

70

LULUCF net
emission

60
50
40

N2O
Agriculture N2O

30
20
10

CH4
Agriculture CH4

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Year

Fig. 34: Projected GHG emission from agriculture and LULUCF sectors from 2000-2025

Total GHG emission and per capita 179.4MtCO2eq which is about 42% smaller than
2025BaU (Fig. 35).
emission

GHG emission (MtCO2eq)

350

In 2005, the per capita GHG emission of
Bangladesh was 0.6tCO2 which will be increased
up to 1.7tCO2 in 2025BaU. However it is stillmuch lower than current per capita emission ofmost of the other countries, it will be reduced to
0.98tCO2 in 2025CM (see Fig. 36).

LULUCF sector

300

Agriculture
sectorPower sector

250
200

Freight transport
sectorPassenger
transport sector
Industrial sector

150
100

50
0
2005

2025BaU 2025CM

Commercial
sectorResidential
sector

Per capita GHG emission (tCO2eq)

The annual GHG emission of Bangladesh wasestimated 87.9MtCO2eq in 2005. In 2025BaU the
GHG emission will be increased to309.8MtCO2eq which is about 3.5 times of 2005.
In 2025CM the GHG emission will be reduced to

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

2005

2025
BaU

2025
CM

Fig. 36: Per capita GHG emission

Fig. 35: Projected total GHG emission
27

Mitigation potential
Residential and commercial sector;- Energy efficient lighting (compact fluoresce
lights, CFL) and electric fan.
- Efficient cooking system (improved cooking
stove, using metered gas).
- Efficient refrigerator.

Mitigation potential towards LCS in
Bangladesh by 2025
The GHG emission in Bangladesh was
87.9MtCO2eq in 2005. In 2025BaU, CO2 emission will be increased to 309.8MtCO2eq. However
in 2025CM, the CO2 emission will be reduced to179.4MtCO2eq by adopting mitigation measures.

- Efficient cooling system.

In energy sector, residential sector is the largest CO2 emission sector results the emission about
63% of total. The next is industrial sector 23%,
commercial sector 7% and transport sector 7% in
2025BaU. The largest reduction of 70.8 MtCO2eq
can be achieved by improving energy efficiency,
where residential and commercial sectors accounted 58.6MtCO2eq, industrial sector 5.1MtCO2eq
and transport sector (passenger and freight)
7.1MtCO2eq. The second largest reduction can beachieved by power supply (reducing transmission
loss and fuel switch to renewables and nuclear)which contributes about 30.9MtCO2eq. A sum offuel switch (from oil to gas) in all demand sectors
also will be contributed 5.8MtCO2eq where major
share is covered by residential, commercial andindustrial sector by 5%.

Industrial sector;- Energy efficient furnace, steam boiler andmotor.
- Fuel switch from oil to natural gas.
Transport sector;- Energy efficiency improvement in old andreconditioned engines of road vehicles.
- Modal shift from private vehicle to public
transport and railway.
Power sector;- Fuel Switch.
- Reduction of transmission loss.

In agriculture sector, CH4 emission from enteric fermentation and manure management combinedly is projected to emit 23.4MtCO2eq in
2025BaU, which is about 27% more than theemission in 2000. CH4 from rice paddy field emits
about 8.7MtCO2eq. Manure management and soil
management emits N2O of about 24.4MtCO2eq in
2025BaU, 32% more compared to the N2O emission in 2000. In LULUCF sector, this model estimated the net emission of 12.6MtCO2eq. In whichchanges in forest and other woody biomass stocks,
forest and grassland conversion (excluding peatland) and emission and removal from soils contributes of about –6.4MtCO2eq, 2.9MtCO2eq and
16.1MtCO2eq of CO2 emission in 2025.

Agricultural sector;- Enteric fermentation.
- Manure management.
- Rice cultivation.
- Managed soil.

LULUCF sector;- Long rotational artificial reforestation.
- Medium rotation participatory coastal planta-tion.
- Medium rotation sal plantation.

Fig. 37 shows the mitigation potential
achieved by applying several mitigation technologies.

- Medium rotational artificial reforestation.
- Short rotational participatory woodlot planta-

To reduce the GHG emission, the following
mitigation measures are essential;

tion.

28

Fig. 37: GHG emission mitigation potential

29

ing reduction measures e.g. energy efficiency improvement, fuel shift and improvement in power
sector (it reduces emission from electricity generation which is consumed by residential sector).
Efficient lighting, refrigerator and cooling havethe most potential and cover 53MtCO2eq or 71%
of reduction of CO2 emission in this sector. Fig.
40 shows the percentage of CO2 emission reduction by energy service in residential sector in total
GHG emission reduction. Residential sector including power supply will contribute about 58%
reduction of CO2 emission in total GHG emission. Using photo voltaic lights as lighting will
share highest reduction of 27% in total GHG
emission reduction.

GHG emission reduction measures(a) Residential sector
The increment of energy demand in the residential
sector depends on the population growth, numberof households and per capita GDP. Population will
increase to 180 million and number of household
to 43 million in 2025.
14
12

2005

8
6

2025BaU

4
2025CM
20
No. ofHouse holds

EnergyDemandCO2
CO2

Freighttransport
LULUICFsectorAgriculturesector
4%
sector 7%
Passenger
10%transport
sectorResidential
Industrial
2%
sectorsector58%
12%

Fig. 38: Changes from 2005 to 2025 inresidential sector

0

MtCO2eq

Hot water system
Cooking appliance27%

Miscellaneousenergy use

14,000

16.3

20
4.9

cooling

Energy demand in commercial sector is driven by
growth of tertiary industry output. In 2025BaU,
the output of the tertiary industry will be increased 3.9 times larger than in 2005 (Fig. 41)

35.0

9.5

7%
7%

Refrigeartion(b) Commercial sector

30

10

12%
1%
4%

Fig. 40: Percentage of CO2 emission reduction ofenergy sector in total GHG emission reduction

In 2025BaU, energy demand in residential
sector will be increased to 42Mtoe which is about
3.7 times larger than in 2005. CO2 emission will
be increased to 151MtCO2eq that is 12.8 times
larger than in 2005. Relative changes in numberof households, energy demand and CO2 emission
is shown in Fig. 38. Fig. 39 shows emission reduction in residential sector. About 76MtCO2eq of
CO2 emission reduction can be achieved by adopt40

Lighting

Commercial
sector7%

Emission

9.4
0.8

Tertiary industry output(billion taka)

Value in 2005 = 1

1012,00010,000

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

2005

Fig. 39: CO2 emission reduction by residential energy
services in energy sector
30

2025

Fig. 41: Output from tertiary industriesand energy demand will be increased to 2.8Mtoe
and CO2 emission 16MtCO2eq, which is about 9.5
and 11.6 times greater than 2005. Relation ofchanges in output, energy demand and CO2 emission is shown in Fig. 42.

increased drastically compared to residential sector due to increased energy consumption in different commercial sectors (health, education, realestate) in 2025BaU. This increase will be morethan proportional to increase of number of household and output of tertiary industry because, when
per capita GDP increased, energy demand perhousehold and per output also will increase. It isconsistent with observed trend of energy demandin Bangladesh since 2000. Fig. 44 shows the percentage of CO2 emission reduction of 7% by energy service of commercial sector including power
supply in total GHG emission reduction.

14

Value in 2005 = 1

12

2005

10

2025
BaU

8
6

2025
CM

4

Freighttransport
Passenger sectortransport 4%

20
Output from
Tertiary
industry

EnergyDemandCOCO2
2Emission

sector2%

Fig. 42: Changes from 2005 to 2025
in commercial sector

Miscellaneousenergy use
Hot water
systemcooling

In CM2025, reduction measures e.g. improvement in energy efficiency (electric devices, insulation buildings), efficiency improvement in power
sector and fuel switch are the potential options forCO2 emission reduction, reduces about
9.0MtCO2eq and contributed about 8% of the total
emission reduction from energy sector. Fig. 43
shows the reduction of CO2 emission by energy
service. Fig. 38 and 42 show that interestingly theenergy consumption of commercial sector will be
3.7

4

MtCO2eq

3
2
1

1.2

1.1

1.4

1%
1%
1%
1%

LULUICFsectorAgriculture 7%
sector10%

Industrial
sector12%
Commercial
sector7%

Residential
sector58%

Refrigeartion
Lighting

3%

Fig. 44: Percentage of CO2 emission reduction ofenergy sector in total GHG emission reduction
Reduction policy frame for residential andcommercial sector is shown in Fig. 45.

CO2 emission reduction in residential and commercial sector
Energy efficiency improvement

Fuel switch•Energy efficiency improvement inelectric and non electric device•Insulation buildings

Introduction
of PV

1.5

0

Environmental performancestandard and evaluation ofbuildings

Fig. 43: CO2 emission reduction by commercial energy

Subsidy tointroduce PV
systemFig. 45: Reduction policy frame for residential
and commercial sector

31improvements and fuel switch, CO2 emission will
be decreased to 41MtCO2. Fig. 47 shows the reduction options by energy services for emission
reduction in industry. The energy demand by energy service by energy type in industry is shownin Table 6. Fig. 48 shows that industry including
power supply contributes 12% CO2 emission reduction in total GHG emission reduction.

(c) Industrial sector“Industrial sector” in this study comprises of primary and secondary industries. This report assumed that GDP growth rate will be 7% by 2025.
The outputs of the industries will be increased to
20,464 billion taka in 2025, which is 3.5 times
larger than 5,897 billion taka in 2005. Energy demand in industrial sector increases to 13.1Mtoe in
2025 from 3,700ktoe in 2005. Relation of changes
in number of household, energy demand and CO2
emission is shown in Fig. 46. Without adopting
any low-carbon measure in 2025BaU; the CO2
emission will be increased to 56MtCO2, about 4times larger than in 2005. In 2025CM, by adopting low-carbon measures e.g. energy efficiency

7

6.0

6

MtCO2eq

5

4.3

3.9

4
3
2

0.9

1

0

4.5

Furnace

BoilerMotor

Value in 2005 = 1

4
3.5

Fig. 47: CO2 emission reduction by industrial energy
services in energy sector

2005

3
2.5

2025
BaU

2
1.5

2025
CM

1

Passenger
transport
sector2%

0.5
0Industry

EnergyDemandMiscellaneousenergy use

CO2
CO
2

EmissionFig. 46: Changes from 2005 to
2025 in industry

1%

Motor

5%

Boiler3%

Furnace3%

Table 6: Energy service demand by fuel in industry (Mtoe)
2005
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
OthersTotal
Share
2025BaU
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
OthersTotal
Share
2025CM
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
Others
Total
Share

Miscellaneousenergy use

Coal
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.4
9%

Oil
0.1
0.4
0
0.4
1.0
26%

Gas
0.6
0.8
0
0.2
1.6
44%

Biomass Electricity
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.6
0
0.1
0
0.8
0
21%

0.7
0.5
0
0.1
1.3
10%

0.4
1.3
0
1.1
2.7
21%

2.3
3.0
0
0.8
6.1
47%

0
0
0
0
0
0

0.3
0
2.3
0.4
2.9
22%

3.6
4.8
2.3
2.4
13.1
100%

0.5
0.3
0
0.1
0.9
8%

0.2
1.0
0
0.9
2.1
18%

1.2
2.0
0
0.8
4.0
35%

0.3
1.0
0
0.1
1.4
12%

0.3
0
2.2
0.5
3.0
26%

2.5
0
2.2
2.4
11.4
100%

32

Total
1.0
1.4
0.6
0.7
3.7
100%

Freighttransport
sector4%

LULUICFsectorAgriculture 7%
sector10%

Industrial
sector12%

Residential
sector58%

Commercial
sector7%

Fig. 48: Percentage of CO2 emission
reduction in total GHG emission reduction

Fig. 49: Power industry and readymade garments

power generation is shown in Table 7. Reduction
policy frame for industrial and power sector isshown in Fig. 51.

(d) Power supply sector
In this study, 2025BaU followed the projectedcomposition of energy mix in existing planning,(Planning commission, 2010) without applying
any renewable energy except hydro power. On theother hand, in 2025CM, reduction measures e.g.
reduction of transmission loss and fuel switchfrom non-renewable to renewable energy (solar,hydro, nuclear energy) reduced the emission by
30.9MtCO2 and contributed about 29% of total
CO2 emission reduction. In 2025CM, nuclear energy and renewables (solar, wind) and less shareof coal reduce CO2 emission. Fig. 50 shows theCO2 emission in 2025BaU and emission reductionof 52% in 2025CM in power sector, considering
the application all sector's reduction measures in
power. Composition of possible energy mix forCO2 emission (MtCO2)

140

100
80
60
40

20
0
2005

2025BaU

2025CM

Fig. 50: CO2 emission by power sector

Table 7: Power supply indicators (Mtoe)
2005
Fuel input
Generation
Own-use(5.2%)
Transmission-loss(8.2%)
Final consumption
Share
2025BaU
Fuel input
Generation
Own-use(5.2%)
Transmission-loss(6.3%)
Final consumption
Share
2025CM
Fuel input
Generation
Own-use(5.2%)
Transmission-loss(5.3%)
Final consumption
Share

120

Coal
0
0
0
0
0
0%

Oil
0.5
0.1
0
0
0.1
10%

Gas
4.7
1.7
0.1
0.1
1.5
88%

Hydro
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.1
2%

Nuclear Solar&Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0%

Total
5.3
2
0
0
2
100%

25.1
9.0
0.5
0.6
8.0
53%

1.2
0.3
0
0
0.3
3%

20.6
7.5
0.4
0.5
6.6
43%

0.6
0.6
0
0
0.6
1%

0
0
0
0
0
0%

0
0
0
0
0
0%

48
17
1
1
15
100%

10.8
3.9
0.2
0.2
3.5
42%

0.8
0.2
0
0
0.2
3%

11.3
4.1
0.2
0.2
3.7
44%

0.5
0.5
0
0
0.5
2%

1.3
1.3
0.1
0.1
1.2
5%

0.9
0.9
0
0
0.8
3%

26
11
1
1
10
100%

CO2 emission reduction in industrial and power sector
Energy efficiency improvement

Energy efficiency
improvement in electricand non electric device
in industrial sector

Energy efficiency
improvement in power
sectorFuel switch

Fuel switch fromnatural gas to renewableenergy and nuclear
power in power sector•Financial assistance investment to energy
efficient equipments•Promotion of least cost technology transfer•Promotion of renewable and nuclear energy•Reduce distribution and transmission loss

Fig. 51: Reduction policy frame for industrial and power sector
33

5

In passenger transport sector, the transport volume
will be increased from 361 billion passenger-km
in 2005 to 663 billion passenger-km in 2025, resulting about 1.8 times larger than 2005. Passenger transport volume increases due to the rapid
growth of population and increased use of private
vehicles. In 2025BaU, the energy demand will be
increased from 530 to 1.5Mtoe or 2.8 times larger
than 2005.

4
Value in 2005= 1(e) Transport sector

2025BaU

2025CM
0
Freight
Transport
Demand2.5

Value in 2005= 12
1

3

2025BaU

1.5

2025CM

0
Passenger
Transport
DemandEnergyDemandCO
CO2
2EmissionFig. 52: Changes from 2005 to 2025 inpassenger transport sector
The CO2 emission from passenger transport
will be increased to 4.6MtCO2 in 2025BaU from
1.6MtCO2 in 2005. However, in 2025CM, byadopting possible reduction measures e.g. energy
efficiency improvement of vehicle and modal shift(Fig. 52 and 53) the emission will be reduced to
2.5MtCO2 which contributes about 3% of total
CO2 emission reduction. In freight transport sector(see Fig. 54), freight transport volume will be increased from 20 billion ton-km in 2005 to 91 bill-

CO2 emission reduction in Transport sector

2

Energy efficiency
improvement

1.6

Diffusion of energy
efficient vehicles

1

0.5

0

Modal shift

Promotion ofenergy efficient
vehicleFig. 53: CO2 emission reduction inpassenger transport sector

CO
CO2
2
Emissionon ton-km in 2025. Energy demand and CO2
emission in freight transport will be increased to
3.9Mtoe and 12MtCO2 in 2025BaU. 16% of
freight transport depended on inland waterway
and 80% on road vehicle in 2005, however, in
BaU2025, share of road vehicle is increased to
84% while share of inland waterway decreases,
due to the improvement in structural improvements of road and bridge construction in the country (e.g. Padma multipurpose bridge (2011-2015)
which will facilitate the social, economic and industrial development of underdeveloped regionsof the country). In CM2025, energy efficiency
improvement contributes reduction of 6.6MtCO2
or 5% of the total emission reduction. In total
GHG emission reduction, passenger and freighttransport results small amount of 2% and 4% of
CO2 emission reduction respectively. Reduction
policy frame for transport sector is shown in Fig.
55.

1
0.5

EnergyDemandFig. 54: Changes from 2005 to 2025 infreight transport sector

2005

2

MtCO2eq

2005

3•Environmental performancestandard of vehicles•Public transport
improvement

Promotion of public
transport and provision
for walk and bicycle•Construction of new flyover•Construction of monorail•Building an underground metro
subway line
•Improve auto traffic signal system•Maintenance of separate lane fordifferent vehicles•Provision of adequate pedestrian
facility

Fig. 55: Reduction policy frame for transport sector34

to 10 US$/tCO2eq of AAC. High mitigation costmeasures will contribute higher mitigation potential. Within the range <100 US$/tCO2eq to >100
US$/tCO2eq, the above reduction measures will
be applied with expensive technologies like highgenetic merit (HGM) and daily spread of manure(DSM). The AFOLU model breakdowns of estimated mitigation potential in 2025 under AAC
from <0 to <100US$/tCO2eq with the applicationof a set of reduction measures.The allowable additional mitigation cost <0US$/tCO2eq will be
10MtCO2eq under <10US$/tCO2eq potential willcontribute 12.8MtCO2eq or 23% of reduction
from the BaU emission in 2025. However, allowable additional mitigation cost <100US$/tCO2eq
and >100US$/tCO2eq show the significant reduction in GHG emission about 21% and 38% respectively from the BaU in 2025 in Bangladesh.
Fig. 56 shows the mitigation potential at various
allowable additional mitigation cost.

(f) Agriculture sector
This study applies several available reduction
measures to estimate mitigation potential under
Allowable Abatement Cost (AAC), with range of<0 to >100US$/tCO2eq for GHG emission reduction by 2025. There are three types of reduction
measures taking negative or zero cost, which arecalled “No Regret Technologies” (AAC is lessthan 0US$/tCO2eq): Midseason drainage (MD),Dome digester, cooking fuel and light (CFL) andreplacement of roughage with concentrates(RRC). AAC <0US$/tCO2eq will provide
10MtCO2eq of mitigation potential without application of any reduction measure. Under 10US$/tCO2eq of AAC, mitigation potential will be
12.8MtCO2eq High Efficiency fertilizer applications (HEF), off-season incorporation of ricestraw (OIR), replace urea in fertilizer with ammonium sulphate (RAS), tillage and residue management (TRM) will be applied from 0US$/tCO2eq
22

Mitigation potential in 2025 (MtCO2eq)

20

SRF

TRM

HEF

OIR

MD

RAS

CFL

DSM

RRC

HGM

18

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
<0

<10

<100

>100

Allowable Additional Mitigation cost (US$/tCO2eq)
Fig. 56: Mitigation potential in 2025 under different AAC in agriculture35Under AAC <10US$/tCO2eq applied reduction measures will reduce about 12.8MtCO2eq,
which results about 23% of total mitigation potential in agricultural sector in 2025. In this case,
RAS, MD and OIR will be anticipated to reduce
4.7MtCO2eq, results about 37% of total mitigation
potential under of cost constrain of AAC <10US$/tCO2eq in agricultural sector. However, these reduction measures will contribute 6.7MtCO2eq of
mitigation potential under the AAC <100 US$/tCO2eq and AAC >100 US$/tCO2eq respectively.
Therefore, the additional cost for installation ishigh. Fig. 57 shows the mitigation potential under
AAC <10US$/tCO2 in agriculture. This model
estimated mitigation potential from 2000 to 2025
based on the input data and future assumption.
Mitigation potential of 10MtCO2eq in 2000 will
be increased to 12.8MtCO2eq in 2025. Among
applied reduction measures, CFL, RRC from livestock sector and MD in rice paddy cultivation contributed larger mitigation potential of 3MtCO2eq,
2.1MtCO2eq and 2.2MtCO2eq respectively. It
showed an increasing trend to contribute in mitigation potential of 3.4MtCO2eq, 2.2MtCO2eq and
2.5MtCO2eq in 2010 respectively. These reduction
measures are assumed to contribute further withrising trend in mitigation potential of 11% and
14% in 2020 and 2025 respectively. The largest
mitigation potential of 75% in 2020 and 74% in
2025 will be provided by the combination of CFL,
RRC from livestock sector and MD in rice paddy
cultivation. However, in livestock sector for enteric fermentation CFL has greater potential than
RAS, contributed about 32% and 21% higher mitigation potential in 2025 from 2000. In rice paddy
cultivation, the potentiality of OIR will be reduced
from 50% in 2000 and 2025 with the combinationof MD. Therefore, MD and OIR significantly reduced emission of 3.3MtCO2eq in 2000 in total
mitigation potential and will increased to
4MtCO2eq in 2025. Reduction measures, such as
HEF has small mitigation potential in total. For
Bangladesh, CFL, RRC in livestock sector andMD and OIR in rice paddy cultivation are supposed to be cost-effective reduction measures togain the higher mitigation potential in overall agriculture sector. Fig. 58 shows the share of GHG
emission mitigation in total GHG emission reduction. This study estimates about 10% mitigation
potential, achieved by agricultural sector in total
reduction.

14
TRM

Mitigation Potential (MtCO2eq)

12
HEF

0.1%
1%
1%

RRC

2%

RAS

CFL

1%

MD

10

OIR

3%

OIR

HEF

8

2%

TRM

MD
6

LULUICF

RAS

4

CFL

2

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

RRC

2025

Freighttransport
sector4%
Passenger
transport
sector2%

Agriculture sector
7%
sector10%

Industrial
sector12%
Commercial
sector7%

Residential
sector58%

Year

Fig. 57: Mitigation potential under AAC <10US$/tCO2 inagriculture

36

Fig. 58: Share of GHG emission reduction inagriculture in total GHG emission reduction

2.62 MtCO2eq respectively under mitigation cost
150millionUS$ in 25years. Therefore, these are
the most cost effective mitigation technologies for
Bangladesh through which mitigation of GHG
emission in LULUCF sector are anticipated toachieve about 100% from LULUCF BaU emission
in 25 years with high mitigation cost. High mitigation cost contributes as sink for emission reduction more than the emission in BaU case. Due tothe lack of data on area selection for the application of each reduction measure, this model estimated reduction measures will be applied inwhole forest area. The best technologies and applied area will be chosen by the model. In total
GHG emission reduction, this sector contributed
7% of mitigation potential of GHG emission reduction and in which long rotational artificial reforestation and short rotational participatory
woodlot plantation resulted 5% and 2% under mitigation cost 25millionUS$ respectively.

(g) LULUCF sector
For LULUCF sector in Bangladesh, we do nothave relevant specific data on mitigation potentialof available reduction measures. Several reports
explained about mitigation technologies and mitigation cost implicitly. This study collects datafrom those reports and estimated the mean mitigation potential by SQF (maximization of cumulative mitigation in the whole time period, from present to the future). In general sense, SQF is therecursive explanation where the reduction
measures will be selected per year without consideration of the future, known as realistic assumption. This study estimates the mean mitigation potential achieved by mitigation technologies underwide range of maximum allowable mitigation cost
1millionUS$ to 150millionUS$ from 2000 to
2025, shown in Fig. 59.
Within this time period, reduction measures
such as long rotational artificial reforestation, medium rotational artificial reforestation and shortrotational participatory woodlot plantation are estimated to have the largest mean mitigation potential of about 23.6MtCO2eq, 0.69MtCO2eq andOther reduction measures such as medium
rotation participatory coastal plantation medium
rotation sal plantation did not have any significant
mitigation potential for Bangladesh in this study
within this range of allowable mitigation cost.

30

Medium rotational
artificial reforestation

Mitigation potential (MtCO2eq)

25

20

Short rotational
participatory woodlot
plantation

15

10

Long rotational
artificial reforestation

5

0
1

5

10

25

50

100

150

Mitigation cost (millionUS$)

Fig. 59: Mitigation potential in LULUCF sector

37

Actions toward GHG emission reduction
For Bangladesh, building a low-carbon society
will be both a challenge and an opportunity. The
concept of low-carbon society is not only to reduce GHG emission, but also focuses on better
energy efficiency which then improves economic
productivity. In this study, GHG emission can be
reduced about 42% in 2025CM by adopting someeffective and feasible reduction measures. However, it will take long time and enough funding
from different national and international organizations to accept and implement reduction
measures. Therefore, Bangladesh needs to moveto a low carbon paradigm to facilitate the effective
medium and long-term strategies for economic
development and also set a GHG emission reduction target. Raising knowledge and changing behavioral attitude of the general public towards low-carbon society is also an important issue for realization the good image of its implementation in
Bangladesh. Brief overviews of possible actions
and emission reductions are shown in Table 8.

Fig. 60 shows the GHG emission reduction
from different sectors.

7%
10%
42%
24%

4%

6%

6%

1%

Residential
sectorCommercial
sectorIndustrial
sectorPassenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
Power
sectorAgriculture
sector
LULUCF
sectorFig. 60: Share of sector wise emission reduction in total GHG emission reduction

Table 8: Summary of proposed actions for GHG emission reduction
GHG emission

Actions

reduction (MtCO 2 eq)(%)

1. Energy efficiency improvement in residential and commercial sector

59

45%

2. Energy efficiency improvement in industrial sector

54%

3. Fuel switch in residential, commercial and industrial sector

64%

4. Promotion of energy efficient vehicles (passenger+freight transport)

75%

5. Modal shift in passenger transport sector

1

0.4%

6. Fuel switch and reduction of transmission loss in power sector

31

24%

7. Rice field management (Midseason drainage+Off-season incorporationof rice straw+Replace urea with ammonium sulphate) in agriculture sector

54%

8. Manure management (Dome digester for cooking fuel and light) inagriculture sector

43%

9. Enteric fermentation (Replacement of roughage with concentrated feed)

3

2%

1

1%

10

7%

131

100%

10. Managed soil (High efficiency fertilizer application+Tillage and residue
management) in agriculture sector
11. Long rotational artificial reforestation + Short rotational participatory
woodlot plantation) in LULUCF sector
Total GHG emission reduction (MtCO 2 eq)

38

Methodology
we employed the reduction measure showed inpreceding study (Japan’s study).

Extended Snapshot (ExSS) tool
Procedure of LCS scenario development
In order to create a low-carbon society scenario,
we developed a method based on the idea of"Back Casting", which sets a desirable goal first,
and then seek the way to achieve it. Fig. 61
shows overview of the method.

(5) Setting introduction of counter measures:Technological parameters related to energy demand and CO2 emission, in short energy efficiency, are defined.
(6) Estimation of CO2 emission in the target
year: Based on socio-economic indices and assumption of measures' introduction, GHG emission are calculated.

(1) Setting framework: Framework of a LCS
scenario includes; target area, base year, target
year, environmental target and number of scenarios. Among them, the base year is comparedwith target year. The target year should be far
enough to realize required change, and nearenough to imagine the vision for the people in
the region. In this study, we set the target year of
Bangladesh is 2025. This is also a suitable timespan for a LCS study for making realistic relation with the draft published by Ministry ofPlanning (2010) “Outline Perspective Plan of
Bangladesh Making Vision 2021 a Reality”. As
an environmental target, we targeted CO2 fromenergy use because it will be a main source of
GHG emission from Bangladesh in 2025.

(7) Proposal of policies: Propose policy set to
introduce the measures defined. Available policies are depended on the situation of the country.
ExSS can calculate emission reduction of eachcounter measure. Therefore, it can show reduction potential of reduction measures which especially need local policy. It can also identify
measures which have high reduction potential
and therefore important.
(1) Setting
Framework(2) Assumptions of socio-economic situations:
Before conducting quantitative estimation, qualitative future image should be written. It is animage of lifestyle, economy and industry, land
use and so on.
(3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions: To estimate Snapshot based on the future
image of (2), values of exogenous variables andparameters are set. Using those inputs, ExSS calculates socio-economic indices of the target year
such as population, GDP, output by industry,transport demand and so on.

(2) Assumptions ofsocio-economic
situations(4) Collection of
reduction measures(3) Quantification ofsocio-economic
assumptions(5) Setting introductionof reduction measuresin target year(6) Estimation of
CO2 emission in thetarget year

(4) Collection of reduction measures: To collect counter measures which are thought to beavailable in the target year. For example, highenergy-efficiency devices, transport structurechange such as public transport, use of renewable energy, energy saving behavior and carbon
sink. Technical data is required to estimate theireffect to reduce GHG emission. In this research(7) Proposal ofpolicies

Fig. 61: Procedure of LCS scenario creation

39

Passenger transport demand is estimated fromthe population and freight transport demand
whereby it is a function of output by manufacturing industries. Floor area of commerce is determined from output of tertiary industries.

Quantitative estimation tool “ExSS tool”
Fig. 62 shows the structure of the ExSS tool with
input parameters and exogenous variables. ExSS
is a system of simultaneous equations. Given a setof exogenous variables and parameters, solution is
uniquely defined. In this simulation model, only
CO2 emission from energy consumption is calculated, even though, ExSS can be used to project
other GHG and environmental loads such as air
pollutants. In many LCS scenarios, exogenously
fixed population data are used. To determine output of industries, input-output approach is applied.

Other than driving force, activity level of eachsector, energy demand by fuels determined withthree parameters. They are energy service demand
per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share.
Diffusion of counter measures changes the valueof these parameters, and so GHG emission.

Export by goods
Government expenditure

Import ratio

Output byindustry

IO
analysis

Population

Input coefficient matrix

Household size

Private consumptions
Fixed capital formation

Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturingindustry

Population

Number ofhouseholdFloor area per output
Commercial
building floorarea

Freighttransport
demandPassenger
transport
demandTrip per person
Trip distance
Modal share

Energy service demand per
driving force

Energy end-use device
share
Energy end-use device
energy efficiency

Fuel share
Energy efficiency

Dispersed power
generation (DPG)
Energy efficiency
DPG

Exogenous variables
Parameters

Endogenous
variables

Energy service
demandFinal energy
demandEnergy demand(DPG)

Central power
generation (CPG)
Energy demand(CPG)

Primary energy
supplyCO2 emssions

Fig. 62: Structure of ExSS

40

Freight generation
per output

Transport distance
Modal share

Energy efficiency(CPG)
Fuel share (CPG)
Transmission loss
(CPG)
Own use (CPG)
CO2 emission factor

nously. The model illustrates selection of GHG
mitigation options (technologies) based on economic rationality. Since the selection depends not
only on evaluation methodologies of cost and mitigation but also dependency among technologies,
we considered the dependency in the model. We
prepared several evaluation methodologies and wecompared and analyzed differences among
amounts of technologies under several constraintsof minimum amount of mitigation or maximum
cost in each year.

AFOLUB Model
The AFOLUB model (see Fig. 63) is a bottom-up
type model for calculating GHG emission andmitigation potentials in AFOLU sectors at the national/regional level, based on detailed information of specific mitigation countermeasures.
The emission and mitigation are calculated using
a function of Allowable Abatement Cost for GHG
emission mitigation (AAC) which is a representative parameter representing a willingness of GHG
reduction under several constraints for mitigation
costs and mitigation potential, based on future assumptions of production in agriculture and livestock industry and land use change given exoge-

The AFOLUB consists of two models; Agriculture/Bottom-up (AG/Bottom-up) and LULUCF/Bottom-up.

List of Countermeasure
Characteristics of countermeasure

Scenario of;- Crop production- Yield of crops and carcass
weight of animals- Number of livestock
animals- Land use, land use change-

Cost
Reduction effectLife time
Diffusion ratio
Energy consumption and recovery

Scenario of;- Fertilizer input- Price of commodity and energy- Production technologies- Feeding system of livestock- Manure management system- Share ratio of irrigation area

Policy;Allowable abatement
cost for GHG
emission mitigation- GHG emission tax rate
- Energy tax rate
- Subsidy

AFOLUB model
Exogenous
variables

Emission/mitigation
Types of countermeasures

Endogenous
variables

Model

Source: Hasegawa and Matsuoka, submitted

Fig. 63: AFOLUB model2

profit. The profit is defined by benefit minus costplus benefit by bioenergy sales. Production is calculated as a multiplication of productivity (i.e.
crop production per unit area and carcass weight)
and quantity of activity (area of cropland andnumber of livestock animal). There is a linkage
between production and activity yields. Yields aredefined as production of commodities per unit activity. It is, for example, crop production per unit
area harvested and carcass weight of livestock animals. It is taken into account that yields may bechanged due to application of countermeasures.

AG/ Bottom-up model
The AG/Bottom-up model (Fig. 64) calculates
GHG emission, combination of mitigation technologies and their mitigation in agricultural production and energy consumption of agricultural
machines. This module is based on the assumptionthat producers produce commodities to supply theamount of productions given exogenously. The
countermeasure application term is divided into
several periods and the producers select ways of
producing commodities and combinations of mitigation countermeasures in order to maximize their

41

For example, yield may be decreased by fertilizer reduction and carcass weight of livestock
animal may be increased by improvement of feedsystems. The model takes into account impacts ofclimate conditions on crop yields.

Production of goods/
services DEX jd

Maximum &Minimum
Diffusion ratio

EQ_MAX maxl , minl

Production of goods/
services of primary
D jdactivity

Production of goods/
services ofD js
secondary activity

EQ_SPLY

EQ_MIN

EQ_SEC

Factor to calculatesecondary activities
from amounts ofa js ,ltechnology

Output ofgoods/service
ylXl

ProductivityylQuantity oftechnology l
XlRecovered energy erl,k

EQ_EMISS

GHG
emissionm

Ql

Emission coefficient elm , eekm
Energy consumption
coefficient ecl,kCost of factor input &intermediate input
excluding energy fl

EQ_PRF
EQ_COST

AAC  lm

Price of good p j , pk

Profit Yl

Exogenous
variable

Profit is
maximized.

Endogenous
variable

Parameter forconstraint

EQ; Equation

Fig. 64: Framework of AG/Bottom-up

LULUCF/Bottom-up model
LULUCF/Bottom-up model (Fig. 65) calculates
GHG emission and the mitigation potentials inLand Use and Land Use Change and Forestry(LULUCF) sectors. The emission is caused bycarbon stock change, fires and disturbance. Assumption of future land use change is given exogenously. As same as AG/Bottom-up,
Land use andLand use change
scenariof ,ttAlu 'lu , Alu

Emissioncoefficients
m ,t  t 'm
m ,t  t 'leluf ,', led lum ,t t 'lu , leclu , lef lutRatio of fire rlutRatio of disturbance dlu

Scenario of land
use change cohortttAnochange,
lu , Aafter,luIntegrated
emissioncoefficient
let

m ,t
nochange ,lu, let

LULUCF/Bottom-up determines combination oftechnologies in order to maximize profit. The LULUCF/Bottom-up does not take into account benefit from activity (i.e. improved land use andwood production). The module calculates total
mitigation impacts in an assumed period since
mitigation impacts of some countermeasures lastin the long term after application.

Mitigation;deltaLQMPP

Cumulative
mitigation;deltaLQF

Area of Land use andLand use change withcountermeasuresAt ,l , At  0.5,lm ,tafter,lu

Reduction ratio; aec,
aecc
Mitigation cost /benefit
per area; lc, lb, lcc, lcbml
GHG emission tax

Maximum mitigation cost;
LTCMAX

Mitigation net
cost;
LCPP
Description
Exogenous
variables

Cumulative
net cost;
LCF
Endogenous
variables

Minimum mitigation;deltaLTQMIN

Fig. 65: Framework of LULUCF/Bottom-up
42

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44

45

13,25840,7510135,909

Other private services

040,456

1,141

0

3,996

1,447,015 490,868

3,682,115 #######

Total Gross Input

0

Total 'Value Added

20

856,921 341,566

CapitalIndirect Tax

590,074 149,302

Labor

2,235,100 798,100

334

Government services

Total Intermediate Input

108,830

Education and Health

6,695

214,758

Real estate & renting businessTransport services

15,707

407,054 247,575

1,729

14,431

433,722 301,667

63,4702,523 133,550

845,645

Wholesale and retail trade

Electricity, gas & water

Construction

Manufacturing and Commercial goods

Minning and Quarrying

Fishing

Agriculture and forestry

202,90245,7606,032

26,300013,428157,142

16,1012,581

014,45337,29838,980

8,391

4,303

24,07910,955003,042,402

695,228

29,251

392,0150273,962

2,347,174

138,515103

037,594

317,074

408,148

21,521

4,152

373,676

72,284

164,100

810,007

130,725

54,445

10,506

31,6290

12,31076,28011,351

647

0

663

12,78915,144

9,439

785

19,108

6,354

0

0

793,939

179,056

23,603102,91052,543614,882

63,00010,098056,555145,945

152,526

32,835

16,837

94,21942,86700

11,622,418

2,655,871

111,742

1,497,554

1,046,574

8,966,547

529,148395

0143,616

1,211,269

1,559,184

82,213

15,8601,427,495

276,137

626,886

3,094,344

701,368

562,746764

210,2300351,752

138,623

26,880950

024,776

19,750

0

397

5,272

46,55814,03900641,479

412,30834

164,3270247,947

229,172

46,2261,675

029,063

19,746

0

5,934

22,03583,65020,84300Wholesale andTransport
retailservices
trade492,430

322,32567

145,0160

177,242

170,105

48,0492,610

035,543

0

0

1,229

8,514

48,56425,5960

0

Real estate& rentingbusiness

239,115

177,776

068,7370

109,039

61,33919,794

563

0

4,410

0

0

263

1,053

31,599

3,212

0

446

167,560

125,279

034,738090,54142,281

16,473

656

6,150

1,959

3,237

0

264

1,074

9,598

2,871

0

0

Education Governmeand Health nt services

793,145454,277

8,595

159,761

0285,922338,868

150,182

927

4,709

27,790

1,934

0

1,758

4,737

88,524

21,633

5,396

31,278

Other
privateservices

8,931,578

3,932,766

60,5701,438,851

446,918

1,986,427

4,998,813

566,132

12,081

53,992

180,160

511,708

701,368

76,64060,712

1,165,986

227,890

212,446

1,229,697

3,110,933

204,229

19,408110,643

312,269

104,164

2,518,588

1,362,235

20,393

791,007550,834

1,156,353

99,738

3,374

0

0

56,667

083,766

11,772

667,718

46,623

0

186,696

480,468

93,1683,293

085,87468,4530

1,375

18,274

161,371

48,660

0

0

2,648

728,662108529,255

798,575

738,104

148,883

5,394

093,606

63,5980

19,11170,969269,415

67,12900557,793 2,430,956 2,066,043

232,313 1,950,488 1,327,939

44,830134,959

52,524 1,219,179

325,481

48,432

2,761

0

2,830

54,57164,61840,273

3,352

81,531

27,11300Wholesale andTransport
retailservices
trade839,406

0

324,555

514,851

289,625

93,4632,656

020,823

0

0

1,241

4,972

149,199

15,1640

2,107

913,085

682,684

0

189,300

493,385

230,401

89,767

3,576

33,512

10,673

17,637

0

1,439

5,852

52,303

15,64200

Education Governmeand Health nt services

1,974,391 1,129,031

1,292,359

267

581,441

710,651

682,032

192,653

10,464

0

142,508

0

0

4,928

34,136

194,717

102,626

00Real estate& rentingbusiness

3,301,916

1,891,186

35,782

665,094

1,190,310

1,410,730

625,219

3,858

19,605

115,693

8,052

0

7,318

19,720368,529

90,05822,464130,214

Other
privateservices

062,5570

1,737,732

103,758

130,042

326,1311,054,223

339,649

692,390

1,291,524

126,0910

302,005

0

6,838,882

461,298

262,226

659,530

32,279,245

14,351,420

239,394

6,743,224

7,368,802

17,927,825 12,027,818

2,159,837

47,344

161,946

682,868

1,840,948

2,430,956

291,936

216,174

4,201,886

836,240

785,423

4,272,265

788,0590440,106

347,953

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total
PrivateGovernment
intermediate
consumption consumption
consumption

203,827

0

113,831

89,996

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total
PrivateGovernment
intermediate
consumption consumption
consumption

Input-Output table in 2025 of Bangladesh (million taka)

656,219354,9315,313

206,0970

143,520

301,288

25,987879

0

0

14,765021,825

3,067

173,974

12,1480

48,644Agriculture
Minning
Electricity,
andFishing
andManufacturing Constructiongas &forestry
Quarryingwater

1,459,345 404,887

0

Total Gross Input

8573,500 154,190

Indirect Tax

0

Total Value Added

0

Capital339,626 107,292

46,898233,866

Land

12,708

Labour

53,865

Other private services

358

0

1,255

0

77,7674,934

094,75912,801885,845 250,697

132

Government services

4,165

41,950Total Intermediate Input

43,133

2,653

85,116

161,329

685

5,720

171,899

25,1551,000

335,157

Education and HealthReal estate & renting businessTransport services

Wholesale and retail trade

Electricity, gas & water

Construction

Manufacturing and Commercial goods

Minning and Quarrying

Fishing

Agriculture and forestry

Agriculture
Minning
Electricity,
andFishing
andManufacturing Constructiongas &forestry
Quarryingwater

Input-Output table in 2005 of Bangladesh (million taka)

3,553,988

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,302,414

1,137,963-30,444

108,845

35,209Grossdomestic
capitalformation

919,221

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

595,508

294,328-7,87428,152

9,107

Gross
domestic
capitalformation

2,921,618

91,05785,9860099,0030002,421,615

10,011

132,752

81,192

Export755,661

23,551

22,2400025,607000626,338

2,589

34,33621,000

Export793,939

1,288,968

3,682,115

Total Gross
Output8,931,578

793,145

167,560

239,115

492,430

641,479

701,368

130,725

656,219

3,042,402

202,902404,887

1,459,345

Total Gross
Output1,142,079

865,741

967,085

1,291,524

225,095

0265,857

2,302,414

3,301,916

913,085

1,129,031

1,974,391

2,066,043

2,430,956

557,7932,518,588

7,420,532 11,622,418-42,301

503,545-590,151

Final
Demand3,932,766

227,013

155,479

185,124

312,269

129,7710

54,086595,508

1,876,416-24,988

192,441

229,647

Total Final
Demand-4,940,063 14,351,420 32,279,245-3,2000-73,258000-36,148

0-2,977,929-483,166-279-1,366,082

Import-1,056,877

-767

0

-15,515000-8,4720-781,982-123,461-89-126,590

ImportData Tables

Final energy consumption by fuel type by sectors (ktoe)
2005
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Total
2025BaU
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Total
2025CM
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Total

Coal

Oil
750

350

950
530
940
3,170

350

5,665
1,337

2,727
1,483
3,958
13,832

1,337

Gas
1,616
159
1,621

Biomass
8,296Electricity
768
138
779

3,396

8,296

1,685

10,0491,509
6,100

15,043

11,256
1,313
2,904

17,65815,043

15,473

8,097
1,187
4,040

13,996
1,407

6,261
550
2,960

13,324

15,403

9,772

31,704
1,737
11,443803
2,156
47,842

Biomass

Total
20,53995,413
63,696

100%
100%
100%

3,350
938

2,097
803
2,156
8,406

938

Total
11,430
297
3,700
530
940
16,89742,013
2,822
13,068
1,483
3,958
63,344

Primary energy demand by fuel type (ktoe)

Energy demand
2005
2025BaU
2025CM
Percentage
distribution
2005
2025BaU
2025CM

Coal

Petroleum

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Solar/
wind

350
26,42011,751

3,704
15,0709,178

8,078
38,231
24,667

111
648
513

0

0

1,310

873

8,296
15,043
15,403

2%
28%
18%

18%
16%
14%

39%
40%
39%

1%
1%
1%

0%
0%
2%

0%
0%
1%

40%
16%
24%

46

47

Low-Carbon Society Development towards 2025 in
Bangladesh

November, 2012

Team Members
Kyoto University, Japan
Tahsin Jilani*

Kei Gomi
Yuzuru Matsuoka
National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan
Tomoko Hasegawa
Junichi Fujino
Khulna University, Bangladesh
Abul Kalam Azad
Department of Environment, Bangladesh
Mirza Shawkat Ali*Corresponding Author
Contact Address:
Tahsin Jilani
Department of Environmental Engineering
Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
Tel: 81-75-383-3370 (off)
Email: tahsinku@yahoo.com

48