Low Carbon Society Scenario

Bhopal2035

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, India
National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan

Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge policymakers, city planners and government officials
from Bhopal, India who have contributed with useful insights and information. We
are thankful to Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka, Dr. Reina Kawase and Dr. Kei Gomi, (Kyoto
University, Kyoto, Japan); Mr. Go Hibino, Mr. Tomoki Ehara, Mr. Kazuya Fujiwara,
Dr. Yuko Motoki and Mr. Kazuyo Oyamada (Mizuho Information and ResearchInstitute, Tokyo, Japan); Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, Dr. Toshihiko Masui, Dr. Junichi
Fujino, Dr. Shuichi Ashina, Dr. Osamu Akashi, and Dr. Shinichiro Fujimori(National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan) for theirsuggestions and contributions in completing this study. We are specially thankful toShri. A. N. Singh, Chairman, Board of Governors, Maulana Azad National Instituteof Technology (MANIT), Bhopal; Prof. E. F. N. Ribeiro, Chairman, Board ofGovernors, School of Planning and Architecture (SPA), Bhopal; Prof. R. P. Singh,
Director, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal andProf. Ajay Khare, Director, School of Planning and Architecture (SPA), Bhopal for
their direction and patronage.

Authors
Aashish Deshpande *Manmohan Kapshe #Sheuli Mitra #Kshama Puntambekar #* Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India# School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, India

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Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Contents
Foreword

2

Executive Summary

3

Background5

Time Horizon, Target and Vision

6

The Profile

7

Socio-Economic Scenario

11

Energy and Emissions: 2035

12

Mitigation Potential: 2035

13

Seven Actions towards LCS

18

Policy Challenges and Future

23

Appendix-A: Methodology and Framework

24

Appendix-B: Data Tables

26

Appendix-C: Sources of Data28

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Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Foreword
Of all cities in India and, perhaps, of the world, Bhopal has a unique topographic
configuration in which hills and lakes segment the city into sub-cities which, though linked tothe core are yet almost self-sufficient in themselves. This is one metropolitan agglomeration
which has inbuilt disaggregation in terms of population and activity distribution. In otherwords, this is a city which lends itself to decentralised growth and management.
The lakes of Bhopal, in particular the Upper Lake and the Lower Lake, together with thehills Manva Bhand, Idgah, Ahmedabad, Shyamla, Arera, Char Imli, Shahpura, MANIT and
IIFM, provide huge open spaces which act as the lungs of the city. Because the hills havebeen brought under afforestation or low density public use we have in and around Bhopal
almost 12,000 ha. (30, 000 acres) of land under tree growth. This is an enormous vegetation
pool for absorption of carbon dioxide and particulate matter. Because the hills around thelakes are afforested there is root zone treatment of run-off and, therefore, this acts as a naturalfilter for keeping the water bodies relatively clean.
On the negative side is the frenetic building activity taking place in the southern sector of
the city and along the Bhopal bypass which moves in an arc along the northern and eastern
periphery of the city. These new developments are not ecology friendly and planners must
immediately intervene to ensure that the basic green character of Bhopal is not disturbed.
A dispersed population is spread over a far wider area than the same numbers residing inan urban concentration. At the same time the transport system to move people around thissegmented city does add pollutants to the atmosphere. The planners must find a balance inwhich public transport begins to dominate and the modes of transport are environment
friendly. Coupled with this is the need to clear up waterways such as Banganga, Patranala,
Kaliasote River and protect other rivers such as Kolans, Uljhavan, Halali and Betwa, some ofwhich drain into the Upper Lake and others which carry the waste water of Bhopal towards
the Betwa. If these waterways are cleaned up Bhopal would certainly contribute its mite andmove towards being an eco-friendly city.
Reduction in the number of vehicles on the road, measures to prevent pollution of thelakes and the planting of trees would certainly help in reducing the carbon footprint of
Bhopal. The bonus would be that there would be simultaneous improvement in the health ofthe citizens, cleaner air and water and a better quality of life for even the poorest citizens. Thishas to be our goal for 2035.
The faculty and students of the School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal and Maulana
Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal have worked on precisely the above mentioned
issues and compiled a report on the action areas which need urgent attention. The report iscomprehensive, the findings are of great public interest and solutions suggested are practical.
These are the kinds of initiatives that we need if Bhopal is to really develop as a low carbon
environment friendly city, a city whose micro climate has benefited by human intervention
and a city which is bidding fair to becoming the most livable city in India.

BhopalJune, 2011

M.N. Buch
ChairmanNational Centre for
Human Settlements and Environment

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

3

Executive Summary
All over the world, cities are major contributors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and thesame is true for the cities in India. In pursuit of environment friendly development, many cities invarious parts of the world have attempted to design and implement climate change mitigation andadaptation strategies. Developing low carbon cities is a step in that direction.
Developing Low Carbon Society (LCS) studies at city level gives a platform where researchersinteract with stakeholders and policymakers to integrate their knowledge and build relevant
scenarios for transition towards LCS. The LCS roadmaps thus achieved will help in integration ofdevelopment activities, prioritize investments in urban infrastructure, and provide incentives foruse of innovative technologies to improve efficiency. Another important contribution will be topromote behavioral and lifestyle changes.
To define the pathways towards reaching the desired goal of LCS, methodologies to workout abroad framework would be needed. This framework should also look at the opportunities of cobenefits apart from the direct GHG emissions reduction. Such co-benefits, like improved local
ambient air quality and health benefits work towards minimizing social costs.
To analyze the role that urban settlements can play in moving towards LCS, it would be necessary
to take cases studies of cities that show diverse characteristics. It would be useful to take-up large
number of studies before any generalizations can be drawn as the cities that have grown over theyears have distinct individualities that cannot be easily generalized. More so, in case of a country
like India, the diversity in terms of climate, topography, resource-potential, economic-base andsocio-cultural practices has resulted in a variety of development patterns. To explore and analyze
the role of rapidly urbanizing metropolitan cities in India, towards moving on low carbon pathways,
a case study of Bhopal located in Central India has been taken up.
In the present study, simulations for two possible scenarios namely Business as Usual (BaU) and
Low Carbon Society (LCS) for Bhopal in 2035 are developed and emission reduction potentials of
various counter measures are quantified using the AIM/ExSS model. Action plan and policy
measures are suggested for moving towards the LCS Bhopal 2035.
The simulations show that the GHG emission and energy consumption increase in both thescenarios. The GHG emissions of Bhopal in 2005 were around 2.5 million ton CO2 which rise byaround 6 times to 14.2 million ton CO2 in the target year 2035 under the BaU. However, withenergy efficiency improvements, development of renewable energy, and other policies to promotesustainable development across all sectors, Bhopal has about 40% GHG emission reduction
potential over BaU level in the possible LCS Scenario.
The scenario assessment shows that, of the total emission reduction potential, 50% would be due
to fuel switch which is prominent in residential, commercial and industrial sectors; about 40%
would be due to energy efficiency improvements mostly from residential, commercial, andtransport sectors; and remaining around 10% would come from reduction in energy service
demand in residential and transport sectors.
The LCS approach demands greater efficiency of energy consumption as well as reduction in
GHG emissions. Pursuit of these goals presents wide ranging issues in urban transportation,industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Many of the measures in these areas overlap witheach other.
In pursuit of developing LCS Bhopal 2035, the menu of policies and measures fosters numerous
objectives and these policy priorities change and evolve constantly with challenges of the day. The
overall vision of the LCS approach is to make Bhopal a more livable entity to all its residents. Seven
Actions have been suggested that can impact the existing energy consumption pattern as well as
GHG emissions in future. These actions have been defined with an understanding of the inherent
strengths and potential of Bhopal district which can be explored at this time of rapid development.
A sustainable path taken now can guide tomorrow’s growth in a more holistic and inclusive
manner with little need of post-action course correction. These actions, though, identified
separately for the ease of communication, are inseparably linked in the LCS framework and can
only work in conjunction towards achieving the vision.

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Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Seven Actions Towards LCS Bhopal 2035
GREEN GOVERNANCE• Government Initiatives Towards LCS

HOLISTIC HABITAT• Energy Efficiency in Buildings

SUSTAINABLE STYLE• Low Carbon Lifestyle

CELLULAR CITY
• Multi Nuclei Land Use Planning

FORM AND FLOW• Integrating Transport with City Structure

NURTURING NATURE• Leveraging on the Natural and Historic Assets

RURAL RICHES• Promoting a Better Lifestyle in the Rural Areas

Sectoral Contribution in Emission Reduction from Seven Actions

ACTIONS
1

GREEN GOVERNANCE

2

HOLISTIC HABITAT3SUSTAINABLE STYLE4

CELLULAR CITY

5FORM AND FLOW6NURTURING NATURE

7

RURAL RICHESSECTORAL CONTRIBUTION
Residential

Commercial

Industry

Passenger
Transport

Freight
Transport

The present literature on sustainable development and LCS indicates that it would need asignificant transformation in the world energy use pattern. High energy intensity is an area ofmajor concern and quantification of emissions reductions from current policy baseline is necessary.
The study outcome shows that, Bhopal has rising population and higher share of tertiary sector in
occupational pattern. To transform it into LCS would require an aggressive portfolio of policy
measures coupled with strong environmental awareness, conservationist values and environmental
integrity. The key policy measures are improving energy intensity (attainable with reducing energy
service demand, lifestyle changes) along with access to low carbon power (hydro, nuclear), fuelswitch in industrial and transport sectors and measures promoting end-use device efficiency
specifically in transport, industrial and residential sectors.
This study is of special significance because the pathways to achieve the LCS are open for thedeveloping countries and a framework for a LCS from the perspective of developing countries is
evolving. It could be said that fast growing Indian cities have an opportunity to contribute to theclimate change mitigation by developing on a low carbon pathway.

BhopalJune, 2011

Aashish Deshpande
Manmohan Kapshe
Sheuli Mitra
Kshama Puntambekar

5

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Background
Introduction
International discussions have lately been
focused on how the world community must
reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 60
percent by year 2050, to prevent global averagetemperatures from rising above 2°C over preindustrial levels. As each individual country
will take the development path on the basis of
its local resource endowments, it becomes
imperative to focus on the possible incentives,that can help the developing countries inmoving towards a lower carbon future. Careneeds to be taken to account for the barriers
that can retard the process. This translates into
formulation of an integrated approach tosustainable development and a Low Carbon
Society (LCS) requiring re-aligning ofdevelopment and climate priorities.
The main characteristic of LCS approach is toimbibe societies in transition to address not
only the environmental challenges of climatechange but also social, economic and politicalchallenges among others.

gases at a level that will avoid dangerous
climate change, through deep cuts in global
emissions.
3. Demonstrate a high level of energy efficiency
and use low-carbon energy sources andproduction technologies.
4. Adopt patterns of consumption and behavior
that are consistent with low levels ofgreenhouse gas emissions.
LCS framework is not merely an approach of
reducing GHG emissions. It also helps toachieve national development targets especiallythose related to effective and sustainable
development.
With rapid urbanization, in the coming years
India faces the challenges in economic
development which have to be met with thelimited resources available, with minimal
externalities and large uncertainties with regard
to climate change. From this perspective, the
LCS approach gives alternative options for the
future flow of energy through infrastructure
and other behavioral and life style choices.

Low Carbon Society - Concept
LCS is a sustainably developed or developing
society on the basis of close, reasonable andharmonious coordination of economic andsocial development and environmental
protection. In this society, environmental
protection will be given the same level ofattention as other socioeconomic development
issues.
LCS has the following attributes:
1. Take actions that are compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development,
ensuring that the development needs of allgroups within society are met.
2. Make an equitable contribution towards theglobal effort to stabilize the atmosphericconcentration of CO2 and other greenhouse

A view of old city Bhopal

LCS Study for Bhopal
The urban population of Bhopal has increased
at an average decadal growth rate of over 70%
in the last four decades. Bhopal, being a
growing urban centre in India, is a prototype
city and has hence been selected as a suitablecase study for implementation of the LCS
framework. The study area has been delineated
to include the entire district of Bhopal, which
has considerable areas in the rural urban fringe.
The planning area of the city of Bhopal
constitutes a large part of the district. The
development of the district thus holds great
opportunities at this juncture, standing at thecrossroads of a rural-urban interface, which if
explored in the right perspective, would lead toa more sustainable vision.

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Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Time Horizon, Target and Visionhistoric trends, in the transport and residential
sector the energy and emission scenario has
been drawn for three decades, assuming that all
the past growth rates will continue in the
future. In this scenario no specific interventions
are taken however all policy initiates areincorporated. The BaU scenario shows us the
projected picture bringing out the extent of the
problems in future.

Time Horizon and Target
The time horizon for achieving LCS targets is
set for the year 2035. The objective is to aligncity development plans and policies withnational and global targets.
The target is 40% reduction in 2035 Businessas usual (BaU) emissions. The BaU scenario of2035 has been computed envisaging thecontinuation of present government policies,
existing technologies, lifestyles and energy
consumption patterns.

Low Carbon Society Bhopal 2035
For analyzing the possibilities of reducing the
GHG emissions in future a sustainable
development future scenario is drawn here for
Bhopal that is expected to take it towards Low
Carbon Society. For managing energy emissions
and driving the urban eco-system towards
balance, the city has to work as an organic
whole and the effects of all significant activities
are made apparent. In this process the citizens
and the policymakers make informed choices.
The governance and management process istaken to be rooted in sustainability that takes
decisions which not only address the interest of
the present stakeholders but also of the future
generations.

Business as Usual Bhopal 2035
The present trend in Bhopal has been
extended to future with existing technology inresidential, commercial, transport andindustrial sectors with prevailing economic anddemographic trends. The BaU scenario for
future emission projection in Bhopal city
envisages the continuation of present
government policies, and capture forecast forvarious economic, demographic, land use andenergy use indicators. In the BaU scenario the
air pollution levels continue to grow over thethree decades of projection period. Using

Bhopal LCS Vision
♦
♦
♦
♦
♦
♦
Time Horizon:

To be sustainable and low carbon in line with national policies
Ready for future and resilient to change
Conservation and green orientation for quality of life
Economic and social competitive clean and green industries
Efficient transport system
Community participation in city development
Year 2035

Reduction Target: 40% of 2035 BaU Emissions

Biomass Burning contributes to local pollution

Possibility of low rise green development

7

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

The Profile
Bhopal, the capital city of the state of Madhya
Pradesh, is one of the many cities in India,
growing at a very fast pace. Historically, theidentity of city of Bhopal is linked with the
feudal State of Bhopal as its capital and thelarge man-made lakes. After the reorganizationof states in 1956 Bhopal was declared to be thecapital of Madhya Pradesh. By then, it had
already acquired a complex urban structure.
However, it was only after 1956 that the
spectacular growth of Bhopal started and it
began to sprawl across the adjoining areas.
Climate and Geographic Settings
Bhopal is situated on the Malwa Plateau
spreading across the central part of India. It lies
in hilly terrain, sloping towards the North andSouth East. It has an average elevation of 576
meters above MSL, which is higher than thenorth Indian plains with the land rising towards
the Vindhya Range to the south. Bhopal has
uneven elevation and has a number of small

hillocks within its boundaries and also includes
large water bodies and forest areas in close
proximity to the urban area. The location,
geographic and demographic characteristics of
Bhopal are given in Table 1 and Figure 1 & 2.
Bhopal faces hot and dry summers and mild
winters. The minimum temperature reaches
6oC for a few days in winter. The hot and drysummers are followed by rainy spells due tomonsoonal winds. The rainfall is concentrated
in the months of July and August; however
there are isolated rains throughout the year.
Table 1: Geographic characteristics
Latitude77.35 NLongitude

23.25 E

Altitude550-600 MSL

Max Temp.

45 degree Celsius

Min Temp.

06 degree Celsius

Av Rainfall

900-1220 mm

Planning Area

2772.4 Sq km (601 Sq km urban plan area)

Figure 1: Location of Bhopal District– the study area

Source: BDP (2005)
Figure 2: Tracing the growth of Bhopal with development plans* Bhopal draft development plan 2021 has been put on hold by the State government

Source: BDP (2021)*

8

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Bhopal had a population of 85,000 in 1956 at
the time of declaring it is as the State Capital.
The city became a metropolis with 1.063 million
population in 1991. The population of Bhopal
city has increased at an average decadal growthrate of over 70% during the last 4 decades. As
per the Census 2011 provisional estimates, thepopulation of Bhopal district in 2011 is 2.36
million. Estimates indicate that the populationof Bhopal district would grow to around 4.5
million by 2035. The population characteristics
are indicated in Table 2.
Table 2: Population characteristics
Population Bhopal District (2001)

18,43,510

Population Bhopal Municipal Limit (2001)

14,33,875

Urban Population %80.53

Growth rate (1991-2001)

36.85

Literacy rate

79.99

Sex ratio

1000:898

Source: Census (2001 a)

Land use
The land use in Bhopal is represented inseven broad categories of Residential,
Commercial, Industrial, Public and Semipublic, Public utilities, Recreational andTransportation. The maximum share of land
allocations in the Bhopal Development Plan
(BDP) 1991, was under the residential category
having 45% followed by recreational (15%) andtransportation (13%) (Figure 3).

In recent years, Bhopal has seen a decline of
traditional industries, especially theengineering support and component
manufactures that originally grew up aroundthe Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL).
The service sector is becoming dominant andprovides the majority of employment in Bhopal.
The District Gross Domestic Product (DGDP)
has grown from 45 billion INR in 2001-02 to 70
billion INR in 2005-06 at an annualized shortterm growth rate of 2.59% (Figure 4).
100.0090.00
80.00

DGDP in Billions INR

Demographic Characteristics

70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Figure 4: Bhopal district GDP (at current prices)

For the year 2005-06, the tertiary sector
contribution to DGDP was more than 75% in
the domestic economy (Figure 5). The
occupation in tertiary sector has been
continuously increasing over last four decades
and percentage of workers in secondary sector
has declined substantially whereas the primarysector share has declined marginally.
4% 2% 0%
0%

8%

18
16

Allocated Land in Thousand Hectare

Agriculture Sector

10%

14

Land allocation (BDP 1991)

12

Land allocation(BDP 2005_D)

10Land allocation proposed (Draft BPD 2021)*

2%

Forestry Sector

2%Construction Sector
Manufacturing Sector

72%8Mining and Quarrying
SectorFishing Sector

Electricity,Gas,Water
Supply6
4Figure 5: Sectoral distribution of DGDP (2005-06)

20
Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Public and Public utilities Recreational Transportation
Semi-public

Source: Indicus Analytics

Figure 3: Land use allocation in development plans

Economic Development
On the economic front the city is growing as amultifunctional capital city. In a recent
assessment, Bhopal has ranked 77th in the list of
fastest growing cities in the world with anestimated annual average growth of 2.69% for
the period 2006-2020 (citymayor.com). Figuresfrom the Census of India 2001 show Bhopal as
the 17th largest city in India.

Vallabh Bhavan: The Secretariat

9

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Residential Sector
As per the Census 2001, (Table 3) 97% of thehouseholds in Bhopal district have access toelectricity as source of lighting. 443 households
also use the solar energy for lighting.
Table 3: Households by source of lighting
S.
No

Source of lighting

1Electricity

323,0912

Kerosene

11,152

3

Solar energy

443

4

Other oil200

5

Any other158

6

No lighting
Total

Number ofhouseholds

332

Transport Sector
Like all the major cities in India, Bhopal has
also witnessed a very high vehicular growth. In
the last two decades, the total motor vehicles
have grown more than three times, and thisgrowth is driven by two wheelers which havegrown by more than three times followed by thelarge vehicles (buses, trucks, etc.) that havegrown more than five times during the period.
Of the total vehicles registered every year in
Bhopal, two wheelers accounted for 79% in
1987-88 which increased to 94% in 2003-04.
However, since 2003-04, with rising income
and prosperity, the share of four wheelers
plying on roads is growing rapidly (Figure 6).

335,376600

Source: Census (2001 b)

500

Table 4: Households by type of cooking fuelS.
No.

Type of fuel used
for cooking

Number ofhouseholds

1

Firewood

81,1462

Crop residue

3,850

3

Cow dung

8,805

4

Coal, Lignite

1,133

5

Kerosene

86,4706

LPG

150,636

7

Electricity

526

8

Biogas706

9

Any other647

10

No cooking

1,457

Total

400

Thousands

The type of fuel used for cooking is an
important determinant of the strategies thatwould be needed to address the emission
concerns in Bhopal. Table 4 summarizes the
distribution of households by the type of fuelused for cooking.

300
200
100
0
1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2007-08
Two wheelers
Three wheelers
Four wheelers
Buses
TrucksTractors/ Trailers

Figure 6: Vehicles registered in Bhopal
Source: RTO Bhopal (2006-07)

The transport infrastructure in Bhopal isbeing transformed with widening of roads, overbridges on railway crossings, flyovers for fasttransit, multistory parking at various locations,and pedestrian subways at major traffic points.
Bhopal Municipal Corporation (BMC) under
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal
Mission (JNNURM) scheme has initiated Bus
Rapid Transport System (BRTS) plan for
Bhopal in phased manner (Figure 7).

335,376

Source: Census (2001 b)

Figure 7: Bhopal BRTS Plan (Phase-I)
BRTS work in progress

Source: BCDP (2005)

10

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Energy Consumption and Emissions
The energy consumption in Bhopal is growing
rapidly. The electricity consumption for theyear 2007-08 in Bhopal was about 940.83
million kWh (District Development Report
2007-08) of which Bhopal urban has been
consuming more than 580 million kWh.
The share of residential sector has been
highest with 58% of the total electricity
consumption, followed by commercial 19% andothers 18% and industrial sector accounting for
5%. Different sectors consume different formsof energy. However, in the total energy
consumption, fuel wood, LPG and kerosene
constitute more than 70% and the balance isdistributed amongst Coal, Petroleum, andElectricity, etc. Table 5 shows the sector wise
Table 5: Sector wise energy use (2007-08 )SectorEnergy/Fuel
1. Electricity (M kWh)

I. Residential

II. Commercial
III. Industrial
IV. Transportation

Quantity
340.1

energy consumption distribution in Bhopal
urban for the year 2007-08.
A study carried out by ICLEI - Local
Governments for Sustainability, in association
with City Mayors Association, Bhopal showsthat for the year 2007-08 the annual emission
contribution from various activities in Bhopal
Municipal Corporation area was about 0.74
Million TeCO2 .
It can be also be observed that contribution ofIndustrial sector in CO2 emissions is very little(3%) whereas the residential, commercial andtransport sector contribute more than 80% of
CO2 emissions (Table 6).

It can be observed that for emission
reduction primarily residential and transport
sector needs to be targeted. The waste
management and other sectors though theiremission contribution is around 10%, can also
contribute as there are, right now, nopractices which are addressing emission
reduction concerns.

2. LPG (MT)49,2403. Fuel wood (MT)1,275.30

4. Kerosene (kL)11,941

1. Electricity (M kWh)

112.9

2. LPG (MT)2,184

S. No.

3. Kerosene (kL)

2,388

I.

Residential

36%

1. Electricity (M kWh)

29.5

II.

Industrial

3%

1. Diesel (kL)59,369.80

III.

Commercial

11%

2. Petrol (kL)48,842.50

IV.

Transportation

39%

550

V.

Waste

2%

103.8

VI.

Others9%

V. Waste

MSW (tpd)

VI. Others

Electricity (M kWh)

Table 6: Carbon emissions in urban area (2007-08)
Sector

Source: ICLEI (2008)

Source: ICLEI (2008)

Fuel Station

Transportation of LPG Cylinders

CO2 Emissions

11

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Socio-economic Scenario
Socio-Economic
Assumptions
Estimates for the FutureandThe energy consumption and emissions in acity are dependent on the demographic
characteristics and economic development of
the region. With rapid population increase
Bhopal has grown from a small town to a hub ofmany economic activities. Development has
touched every aspect of life in the city, frompotable water and sewage systems to roads andthe vehicles that ply on them. Using the growth
rates from United Nation (UN) medium term
population projections for India, UN World
Urbanization Prospects 2009 and Census ofIndia future estimates for Madhya Pradesh, it isassumed that the population of Bhopal district
would grow from 1.8 million to 4.5 million by
2035. With the changing life style and growing
nucleated family system the household size isassumed to reduce to 4 from the 5.1 (Census,
2001 a). Using these assumptions about
population, household size and otherassumptions (Table 7), future socio-economic
indicators in 2035 are estimated by the AIM/ExSS model. A summary of model estimates forthe economy, the households andtransportation sector are given in Table 8.
Table 7: Socio-economic assumptions
Indicators
Population
Household size

Assumptions for Year2035
4.5 Million
4

Demographic composition

0-14 [26%], 15-64 [67%],
65+ [7%]

Primary Industry Exports

CAGR 3.0%

Secondary Industry Exports

CAGR 5.8%

Tertiary Industry Exports

CAGR 5.9%

Private Consumption

CAGR 1.1%

Government Consumption

Economy: The AIM/ExSS model estimatesthat the Bhopal economy will grow rapidly with
district GDP rising from INR 70 billion in 2005
to 400 billion in 2035 where tertiary sector
contribution will grow at about 6% CAGR
followed by secondary sector at 5.8% andprimary sector at 3% CAGR. Using an InputOutput framework, the model estimateschanges in the structure of the economy withshift towards service sector from 57% in 2005
to 61% in 2035. This shift is attributed to
decline in the secondary sector share from 38%
to 35% in the same period. The primary sector
share remains almost same with about 1%
increase in three decades.
Households: Along with rapid rise inpopulation the number of households is
expected to grow from present 386 thousands
to 1136 thousands.
Commercial sector: The total floor space forcommercial activities has been estimated to
grow from 61 sq. km in 2005 to 431 sq. km in
2035 as per the rise in tertiary sector’s
contribution in the domestic economy.
Transport sector: The motor vehicle density
is expected to rise with increase in motor
vehicle fleets and population growth. The
passenger transport demand would grow from 5
billion passenger-km in 2005 to 25 billion
passenger-km level in 2035 and the freighttransport demand would grow to 3.5 billion ton-km in 2035 from 0.6 billion ton-km in 2005.
Table 8: Estimates of socio-economic indicators
Parameter

2005

2035 BaU

Household

0.4 Million

1.1 Million

GDP

70 Billion INR

403 Billion INR

GDP per capita

33 Thousand
INR

94 Thousand
INR

CAGR 5.9%

Gross Output

125 Billion INR

754 Billion INR

Fixed Capital Formation

CAGR 5.9%

Primary Sector

5 Billion INR

16 Billion INR

Exports

CAGR 5.9%

Secondary Sector

45 Billion INR

257 Billion INR

Increase 17% Decadal[Modal share NMT (29%),
Public Transport (17%),
Four wheelers (Pvt+IPT)
14%, Two Wheelers (40%)

Tertiary Sector

75 Billion INR

481 Billion INR

Floor Area

61 Sq. Km

431 Sq. Km

Passenger
Transport

5 Billion P Km

25 Billion T Km

Increase 2% Decadal

Freight Transport

0.6 Billion T Km

3.5 Billion T Km

Transport Passenger

Transport Freight12

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Energy and Emissions: 2035
Based on scenario quantification using themacro economic data, future energy demandand corresponding GHG emission in 2035 are
estimated. The final energy demand in Bhopal
is projected to rise more than three times to 3
million toe in 2035 where the share ofresidential sector would be 43% followed byindustry with 28% and transport sector with21% (Figure 8).
About 80% of the energy demand will be met
by coal and oil resources in the year 2035. Gas
follows with 8%, more than half of which isgoing to transport sector and almost equalshare of the remaining to residential andindustrial sectors. The renewable energy
sources, specifically hydro power, nuclear andsolar energy shows a growing contribution in
the energy mix.
In the year 2035, for the low carbon society
scenario, the energy mix will shift towards
cleaner fuel with almost doubling of renewables

share from 12% in BaU to 22% (Figure 9).
In this scenario the coal and oil will decline byhalf in quantity whereas the natural gas wouldgrow with renewable energy sources. With thisenergy demand mix, the GHG emissions for
Bhopal would rise from 2.5 million tCO2 in2005 to 12.0 million tCO2 in 2035 BaU scenario
and would decline to 7.0 million tCO2 in 2035
LCS scenario (Figure 10). A sectoral analysis of
GHG emissions shows that the contributions
from building sector for Bhopal would rise
more than 5 times compared to year 2005 in
BaU scenario.
Similar rise in GHG emissions contribution
would also come from the passenger and freighttransport sector in the same period. The percapita GHG emissions contribution would be
more than two times from 1.2 tCO2 in base year
2005 to 2.6 tCO2 in the 2035 BaU scenario andwould decline to 1.5 tCO2 in 2035 LCS scenario(Figure 11).

14

3

12

2.5

10
Mt CO2

MToe

2
1.5
1
0.5

6
4
2

0
2005
2035 BaU
Residential Commercial Industry

02035 LCS
Passenger Freight

Figure 8: Final energy demand by sector

2005
2035 BaU
Residential Commercial Industry

2035 LCS
Passenger Freight

Figure 10: GHG emissions by sector

4.5

3

4

2.5

3.5

T CO2 / Capita

3

Mtoe

8

2.5
2

1.5
1

2
1.5
1
0.5

0.5
0
2005

Coal

Oil

2035 BaU

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear2035 LCS

Solar

Biomass

Figure 9: Energy demand by primary energy020052035 BAU

Figure 11: Per capita GHG emissions

2035 LCS

13

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Mitigation Potential: 2035
In low carbon society development scenario
for the projection year 2035, the model
estimates that the total GHG emissions in
Bhopal is to be reduced to 7 million tCO2 from12 million tCO2 in BaU scenario. This accounts
for more than 40% GHG emissions reductions(Figure 12).
The largest reduction of 2.4 million tCO2
would come from fuel switch. The energy
efficiency improvements in buildings fromresidential and commercial sectors would
provide 33% of the total emission reduction
potential with 1.6 million tCO2 in the LCS
scenario followed by reduction in energy service
demand (9%) and energy efficiency
improvements in transport (5%) and industrial(3%) sector.

Bhopal being an administrative capital withrising population and having higher share oftertiary sector in occupational pattern, in
pursuit of a low carbon society development,
would require an aggressive portfolio of policy
measures.
Key policy measures for improving energy
intensity (attainable with reducing energy
service demand, lifestyle changes) along withaccess to low carbon power (hydro, nuclear),fuel switch in industrial and transport sectors
and measures promoting end-use device
efficiency specifically in transport, industrial
and residential sectors, would be needed.

12

Efficiency Improvement(Transport)
Efficiency Improvement(Industry)

GHG Emission Reduction (Mt CO2)

10

Efficiency Improvement(Building)
8

Fuel Switch
Reduction in Energy
Service demand

6

Emissions

4

2

0

2005
2035 BaU
Figure 12: GHG emission mitigation potential

Developing walkways along the roads

2035 LCS

Encouraging non-motorised transport

14

The number of households in Bhopal isestimated to rise from 0.4 million in 2005 to 1.1
million in 2035 (Figure 13). This rise isattributed to increase in population and rapid
urbanization leading to reduction of household
size from 5.1 (census 2001) to 4 persons perhousehold. Rise in number of households is the
major driver for energy requirement. In theresidential sector the final energy demand rises
from 429 ktoe in 2005 to 1305 ktoe in 2035
BaU scenario, which is reduced to 892 kote in2035 LCS scenario, correspondingly the GHG
emissions changes from 1.0 million tCO2 in year
2005 to 5.6 million tCO2 in 2035 BaU scenario(Figure 14).
The GHG emissions in 2035 LCS scenario is
estimated to be 49.9% lower than the 2035 BaU
scenario. The reduction of 2.8 million tCO2
emission in the 2035 LCS scenario would

energydevices

efficiency
and shift

1.20

No of Households (in Millions)

Energy use by households depends on thelevel and specific mix of energy services used
and the energy required to deliver thoseservices. In growing cities like Bhopal average
per capita energy services will rise significantlywith change in life style, augmentation ofhousehold equipment coupled with increase in
per capita income.

mainly come from
improvements end-use
towards cleaner fuel.

1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2005

2035 BAU

Figure 13: Number of households
6
5

Value for Year 2005 = 1.

Residential Sector

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

4
3
2
1
0
No of Household
2005

Energy Demand2035 BAU

Figure 14: Change in residential sector

Construction activities

Construction activities

New residential and commercial developments

Government housing

GHG Emissions
2035 LCS

15

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Commercial Sector

Freight Transport

The commercial floor space area is estimatedto rise from 61 sq. km in 2005 to 431 sq. km in
the year 2035 (Figure 15). This can be
attributed to increased commercial activities as
Bhopal being an educational hub andadministrative city has a higher tertiary sector
occupational share in the economy.

Fright transport is needed to develop thecommerce and industry base. A six fold rise in
freight transport demand is expected in the
BaU scenario where small and medium trucks
have largest modal share (Figure 17). This risein freight transport service demand leads tofivefold rise in energy demand and GHG
emissions. In the 2035 BaU scenario the energy
demand rises to 131 ktoe and declines to 110
ktoe in the LCS scenario. Correspondingly the
GHG emissions declines from 0.4 million tCO2
in 2035 BaU scenario to 0.3 million tCO2 in LCS
scenario (Figure 18). This 24% GHG emission
reduction can be attributed to the policy
measures for energy efficiency improvements,
fuel shift and travel demand management.

The commercial floor space is also a major
driver for energy demand. By inducing change
in the energy mix of the power supply and end
use device efficiency, the final energy demandchanges from 0.06 million toe in 2005 to 0.24
million toe in 2035 BaU scenario, which
reduces to 0.19 million toe in 2035 LCS
scenario (Figure 16). The corresponding GHG
emission reduces from 1.4 million tCO2 in 2035
BaU to 0.76 million tCO2 in 2035 LCS scenario.
500

4000

431

Commercial Floor space (Km2)

450

3500

400

3000

350

2500

MTKm

300
250

2000

200

1500

150

1000

100

61

500

50
0

0
2005

Small Vehicles

2035 BaU

2035 CM

Large Vehicles

Goods Train

Figure 17: Freight transport demand

Figure 15: Commercial floor space
6

6

5

5

Value of Year 2005 = 1.

Value in Year 2005 = 1.

2005

2035 BaU

4

3

2

4
3
2
1

1

0

0
Commercial Floor Space2005

Energy Demand2035 BaU

GHG Emissions

2035 LCS

Freight Transport
Demand2005

Energy Demand2035 BAU

GHG Emissions
2035 LCS

Figure 16: Change in commercial sector

Figure 18: Change in transport (Freight)

Existing Commercial Areas

New Commercial Development

16

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Passenger Transport
Every city’s pulse is its transport. The
passenger transportation provides the mobility
necessary for social development. The
passenger transport sector in Bhopal ischaracterized by the higher number of two
wheeler vehicles and large distances they are
driven with its spatial distribution. The
passenger transport demand is expected to
grow by about 5 times from 5.2 billion P-km in2005 to 25 billion P-km in 2035 BaU scenario
and with integrated transport management
measures this marginally declines to 24.1 billion
P-km in LCS scenario (Figure 19).

This spurt in demand results in 5 times rise in
the energy demand to 510 ktoe which in LCS
scenario declines to 287 ktoe. Correspondingly
the GHG emission reduces from 1.4 million
tCO2 in 2035 BaU scenario to 0.9 million tCO2
in LCS scenario (Figure 20), accounting
towards the 40% emission reduction. Most of
the mitigation can be achieved with enhanced
vehicle efficiency, modal shift, increasing use of
public transport and improved transportsystem.

30

Bn Psg Km

25
20
15
10
5
0
2005

Private Transport

2035 BAU

Public Transport

2035 LCS

Non Motorized Transport

Figure 19: Passenger transport demandCity public transport

Value for Year 2005 = 1.

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Passenger Transport
Demand2005

Energy Demand2035 BAU

GHG Emissions

2035 LCS

Figure 20: Change in transport (Passenger)

Use of bicycle: an alternative

Redesigning the rotaries

17

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Industrial Sector
In this study, the industrial sector as energy
consuming sector consists of both primary andsecondary industries of Bhopal and comprisesof agriculture, fisheries, mining, forestry,
manufacturing and construction activities.
Assuming an average annual GDP increase of
5.8%, the output of industrial sector will rise
more than five times from 50 billion INR in2005 to 265 billion INR in the year 2035
(Figure 21). The composition of industry in
Bhopal remains same with change in structure.
With existing policies and end-use device
efficiency improvements, the energy demandand GHG emissions would rise around fourtimes from the base year 2005, as in the span ofthirty years competitiveness in the industrial
sector will foster relatively higher technology
shifts compared to other sectors.
With enhanced mitigation measures in 2035
LCS scenario, the GHG emission reduces to 3
million tCO2 from 3.6 million tCO2 in the 2035
BaU scenario (Figure 22). This reduction can beachieved by promotion of energy efficiency
improvements in end-use devices both inelectrical and non-electrical equipment, boilers
and furnaces, fuel switch from coal and oil togas and clean electricity.
For mitigation in industrial sector, fiscal
incentives from the government would benecessary to promote the substitution.

Further initiatives would also be required to
inform industries on energy saving measuresthrough the development of norms, reports andaudits. With new developments and awareness,
industries will also augment opportunities tospur energy conservation at the plant level.
Though the energy consumption is expected torise over the period, with the gain inproductivity and energy efficiency, a small
increase in energy will be required compared to
the large amount of output that will be
produced per unit of energy consumed.
Thus, from the above discussion we can seethat for transforming Bhopal towards a low
carbon society, several measures would beneeded. The major focus should be on diffusionof low carbon technologies in residential andcommercial sectors with energy efficientbuildings and retrofits.
The shift towards cleaner fuel in industrial
and transport sectors would provide higher
emission reductions. Along with strong
environmental awareness, conservationist
values with energy service demand reduction toenvironmental integrity, low carbon electricity
supply with increased share of renewables likehydro, solar to promotion of end-use device
efficiency, specifically in industrial, transportand building sectors, would yield substantial
emissions reduction.

300

6

250

5

Value for 2005=1

Bn INR

200
150
100
50

4
3
2
1

0
2005
Manufacturing
Fisheries

Construction
Mining2035
ForestAgriculture0
Output ( Bn INR)
2005

Energy Demand2035 BAU

Figure 21: Composition of industrial sector output

Figure 22: Change in industrial sector

Industries near Bhopal

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.

GHG Emissions
2035 LCS

18

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Seven Actions Towards LCS
In pursuit of developing low carbon society
2035 Bhopal, the menu of policies andmeasures fosters numerous objectives andthese policy priorities change and evolve
constantly with challenges of the day.
The LCS approach demands greater efficiencyof energy consumption as well as reduction in
GHG emissions. Pursuit of these goals presents
wide ranging issues in urban transportation,industrial, residential and commercial sectors.
Many of the measures in these areas overlap
with each other.
The overall vision of the LCS approach is tomake Bhopal a more livable entity to all its
residents.

Seven Actions are the key steps that can
influence the existing energy consumption
pattern and GHG emissions in future. These
actions have been defined with anunderstanding of the inherent strengths andpotential of Bhopal district which can be
explored at this time of rapid development. A
sustainable path taken now can guide
tomorrow’s growth in a more holistic andinclusive manner with little need of post-action
course correction.
These actions, though, identified separately
for the ease of communication, are inseparably
linked in the LCS framework and can only workin conjunction towards achieving the vision.

Action-1: Green Governance: Government Initiatives Towards LCS●●●

Introduction of policies and Incentives across sectors incorporating sustainable practices
Government schemes including subsidies on use of green technology
Enforcing not only ‘prescriptive regulations’ but also formulating ‘performance guidelines’

Action-2: Holistic Habitat: Energy Efficiency in Buildings
●
●
●
●
●

Application of energy efficient technology in buildings.
Passive and Active methods of reducing energy consumption
Use of multiple housing typologies according to life style and context
Adopting time tested house forms in rural-urban transition areas (climate responsive vernacular housing)Use of locally available materials and technology

Action-3: Sustainable Style: Low Carbon Lifestyle●●●●

Introduction to environmental concerns from primary level of education.
Reduce, reuse, recycle
Use of energy efficient appliances
Walking as a way of life

Action-4: Cellular City: Multi Nuclei Land Use Planning●●●

Developing and enhancing the existing city form of self contained settlements with mixed land use.
Compact, discreet work-home zones requiring minimal inter-zone travel.
Defining the city cells based on their natural settings, socio-economic homogeneity, location in the context ofcity structure.

Action-5: Form and Flow: Integrating Transport with City Structure●

Two level integration

 Connecting the Cells:♦ Route optimization considering the topography, water bodies and other natural barriers.
♦ Reducing travel demand and time between zones.
♦ Enhancing Public Transport systems.
 Walkable Cells:♦ Transportation within compact closely knit work-home mixed land use zones.
♦ Promoting non-automated means of transport-Inclusion of bike tracks, pedestrian walkways, subways and cross overs.

●

Migration to Sustainable Technology●

Lake Conservation and water management.
Rain water harvesting at city level using natural collector zones, at community level and household level.
Social forestry and urban forestry.
Using indigenous plant species for urban landscaping.
Conserving the city’s heritage.
Promoting eco-tourism and heritage tourism.

 Emission norms
 Alternative fuels use
 Traffic management (passenger and freight) Parking policy
Action-6: Nurturing Nature: Leveraging on the Natural and Historic Assets
●
●
●
●
●

Action-7: Rural Riches: Promoting a Better Lifestyle in the R ural Areas●●●

Developing rural fringes as city’s food reserve by increasing agricultural activities.
Prevent conversion of rural land to peripheral urban housing sprawl through landuse control and incentives.
Government incentives for developing rural housing typologies, with energy efficient technology interventions.

19

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Action 1: Green GovernanceAction 2: Holistic Habitat

Government Initiatives Towards LCS

Energy Efficiency in Buildings

The success of the LCS vision lies first andforemost in the Government’s will to embracesustainability as an intrinsic focus in all its
future plans and policies. This would mean
incorporation of various measures at policy
level and in the implementation mechanisms.
Few of them are:

Holistic Habitat would
measures affecting theconstruction industry.

●

●

●

●

●

●

Taxation and subsidy on various commodities
and services which would result in promoting
sustainable technologies.
Regulated pricing of solar power, alternative
fuels, differential taxing on vehicles switching
to alternative fuel technologies.

●

●

●

Introduction of Government programmes
and schemes to take alternative technologies
to the masses. (Solar cookers, solar heaters
already developed and sold by various
government agencies at subsidized rates areexamples in this direction.)
Financial assistance in the form of loans andgrants to switch over to alternative energy or
fuel sources in the initial stages of transitionand development.
Enforcement of regulatory and development
guidelines to enforce sustainable methods ofdevelopment—compulsory rain water
harvesting for all premises, zero discharge
and recycling of grey water proposals,mandatory requirements of quantifying
energy usage in buildings, etc.
Adoption of green technologies in all its own
civic service provisions- use of solar energy
for street lighting, rainwater harvesting,recycled gray water for urban landscaping
and recycling of garbage collected to convert
to compost or bio-energy.

Vidhan Sabha Bhavan●●

encompass allbuilding and

The application of sustainable technologies atthe pre-construction, construction and postconstruction stages becomes necessary forachieving this action.
Beginning with EIA studies of the site, choiceof site in the context of the city’s vulnerability
map, the pre-construction decisions become
important in achieving sustainability.
The construction phase would have toincorporate measures related to technologies
used during construction, lead lengths ofvarious materials used, energy involved intransportation of materials, energy
consumption during production of
construction materials, etc., and suggest
alternatives which would contribute inemission reduction in all the stages.
Post construction stages would include theenergy consumption parameters and the
reduction methods used throughout the lifeof the building by use of efficient layout anddesign and energy efficient appliances.
Buildings of all uses, including residential,commercial, retail, public and semi public,
would need to develop individual energy
manuals quantifying their energy usage andchalk out means of consumption reduction,
specific to building type and use. Technology
upgrades of existing traditional methods ofbuilding construction to enhance theirperformance are encouraged throughbuilding research centres helping adapt
indigenous technologies to changing
scenarios, instead of replacing themaltogether with ubiquitous global means.

View of old city across lower lake

20

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Action 3: Sustainable Style
Low Carbon Lifestyle
Adopting sustainability as the way of life andnot an alternative path is imperative for the
success of the LCS vision.
●

●

●

●

●
●

Incorporation of the basics of sustainableliving at the primary education level tosensitize children from an early age.

This natural formation can be used to the best
advantage to develop a cellular city form andstructure. This would imply developing
compact multi functional districts or townships(depending on the scale of the settlement)
within an overall cohesive framework.
●

Value education to children to internalize theconcepts of a more sustainable living in their
daily lifestyle. - Avoiding wastage of water,
walking or cycling to school, living in
naturally lit and ventilated surroundings, etc.
Educating the present urban adult
population, who are increasingly distanced
from more natural ways of rural life andincorporating energy saving techniques in
day to day operations.
Reducing dependence on energy driven
gadgets and automated transport .
Reduce, Reuse and Recycle
Awareness drives and subsequent checks on
impact.

Action 4: Cellular City
Multi Nuclei Land Use Planning
The city of Bhopal by virtue of its topography
and natural settings has historically developed
as a city with multiple nuclei with naturalbarriers separating various zones (Figure 23).

Solar water heating system●

Development of a number of mixed land use
compact zones which are economically robust
and support large populations. The old
fortified city area which continues to be thebusiness hub of the city is the mostprominent example of this format. With its
high densities and mixed land use, it offers
multiple occupational opportunities to its
residents who often live and work in quarters
in close proximity to each other. This format
can be translated in the present planning
context as self contained planning units eachhaving a mix of uses and supporting a
residential population employed in the samezone. The benefits of reduced travel,
efficiency of time management would bepromoted, while improving on servicing of
the area with basic infrastructure, which
often remains neglected.
The definition of the different cells (area,
population, density, predominant activity)
would depend on the location of cells in thecontext of the city’s overall structure and thenatural elements delineating them. The
underlying bases of delineation would remain
the principles of sustainability in attempting
to create self contained, mixed use zones withthe benefits of reduced transport, eachfocusing on activities specific to them,
reducing on inter zone travel.

Figure 23: Proposed Sub Cities in Bhopal
Source: Adapted from BDP (2005)

21

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

planning within the zone would be to reduce
vehicular travel to the extent possible andencourage walking and cycling.

Action 5: Form and Flow
Integrating Transport with City Structure
In keeping with the multi nuclei land use
planning, the integration of transport systems
connecting the cells as well as intra celltransport is critical for reduction in emissions
in the LCS scenario. Three key strategies forthis action would include the following:
Connecting the Cells
●

●

●

●

Consideration in land use planning toaccount for reduction in travel demand, byreducing inter zonal travel requirement.
Systematic optimization of travel routes andlaying hierarchy of roads connecting the cells
reducing road lengths and consequently
travel distances between zones wherever
required.
Developing an efficient public transit system.
The necessity of planning a public transportsystem with optimum route distribution tocapture maximum riders would depend on
the proposed land use distribution as well as
the densities of the areas which would form
the catchment of these zones.
Having good connectivity in all parts of the
district of Bhopal would ensure boosting of
the economy as well as help remove
disparities within regions thereby promoting
holistic development.

Walkable Cells●

Efficient micro-level connectivity within thedefined cells. The target of the land use

The VIP Road

●

●

●

Design of pedestrian friendly roads andwalkways with grade separation at vehicularinterchanges for safe cross-overs.
Provision of dedicated bicycle tracks along
major arteries.
Good signage and street texture details atneighbourhood level to make roads accessible
to all, including children, elders andphysically and mentally challenged persons.

Migration
Technology
●

●

●

●

●

to

Sustainable

Transport

Switch over to sustainable fuel and transporttechnology.
Involvement of the Government in enforcing
strict emission control norms for all
motorized vehicles.
Policy measures in the form of fuel subsidies
for promoting alternative fuel.
Market availability of vehicles with green
technology using alternative fuels or solar
power.
Creation of public parking lots at the edge ofcore city areas freeing the congested corefrom motorized traffic and encouraging
pedestrian movement, not only impacting
emission reduction, but also giving back vital
public realms to the pedestrian andrecreating the historic magic of such spaces.

22

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

built fabric to make the city economy morerobust.

Action 6: Nurturing Nature
Leveraging on the Natural and Historic Assets
Bhopal is fortunate to be endowed with large
natural resources in the form of its many lakes
and wooded hills, which give it a unique
identity and define its many zones as well. It
also has an old fortified city area as a historic
resource. Protecting and leveraging this naturaladvantage is the next important step.
●

●

●

●

●

●

Bhopal having a composite climate with only
three to four months of concentrated rainfall
needs to have a holistic water management
system in place (quality and quantity).
Conservation of the Upper Lake and all theother lakes in the district.
Rainwater harvesting to recharge groundwater reserves at the district level by effective
mapping of watersheds and potential
reservoir areas. Also at the community andindividual premise level in open receptacles
or underground reservoirs, thus reducing
energy and cost requirements of long
distance pipeline laying and network design.
Encouraging social forestry in urban areas
helping prevent erosion of valuable top soil
and providing green cover within theconcrete jungles. Plantation of indigenous
species which thrive in the local climaticconditions with little requirement ofadditional watering or maintenance forpublic area plantations.

●

Action 7: Rural Riches
Promoting a better life in the rural areas
A considerable part of Bhopal district is still
rural in nature and would be transforming tourban areas in the near future. At this juncture,
it is important and carry forward the goodpractices of rural living even in the transition tourbanization.
●

●

●

●

Creation of a hierarchy of open spaces at alllevels- the city, city cells and neighbourhoods
and clusters leveraging on the natural assets.
Reviving the cultural heritage by promoting
traditional art forms (moti work, zardosi,etc.), medicinal systems (unani and hamams,etc.) along with preservation of its historic

Stupa at Sanchi

Promotion of tourism activities related to its
natural and historical assets.

●

Inclusion of agro based industries (foodprocessing, agricultural produce marketingetc.) in the economic activities of the district,concentrated in the ‘cells’ on the ru-urban
fringes. This would curb migration of
population to the core city areas, where apopulation largely equipped with agricultural
work skills, become misfits in a
predominantly secondary and tertiary sector
economy.
Technological inputs to upgrade existing
occupations to enhance their productivity.
Increase in agricultural yield and agro basedindustries would help in creating foodreserves in the hinterland of city areas andreduce dependence on food imports fromother regions.
Adopting building planning principles
applied in rural housing typologies which arein the Indian context considerably energy
efficient and based on passive methods ofinsulation.
Improve lifestyles in rural areas throughGovernment policies on supply of basic
infrastructure.

Museum of Man

23

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Policy Challenges and Future
Policy challenges and Measures
Solution to environmental problems requires many changes in the current practices, andtechnological, institutional and human factors are often resistant to change. Further, theenvironmental policies involve multiple stakeholders with multiple, conflicting interests andconcerns that have a range of implications for the present and for future generations. The concerns
about the environmental costs of economic development are now both widespread and intense.
To attain the status of low carbon city, Bhopal will have to make efforts for emissions reduction in
future. Measures will be needed in every walk of life for harnessing renewable materials and energy
sources and also to reduce the use of natural resources by using them more efficiently andproductively, cut or eliminate pollution and toxic wastes and deliver equal or superior performancecompared with conventional offerings. Following are the policy challenges for different sectors -Residential andCommercial Sector

 Fuel use varies from wood, biomass, charcoal to kerosene,
electricity and LPG depending on the income level.
 Emissions from common fuel use.
 Use of inefficient fuel and technologies is the primary cause for high
GHG and local emissions causing indoor as well as outdoor
pollution.
 Lower rate of conversion to new technologies, as the alternative
inefficient fuel is freely and easily available and low preference forenergy efficient technologies over consumer durables.
 Inefficient building designs

Transport Sector

 Limited network of roads,
 High traffic density,
 Increasing number of private vehicles, Inadequate provisions for non-motorized transport

Industrial Sector

 Large share of unorganised industrial activities Use of inefficient fuel and technologies
 Low rate of conversion to new technologies

Bhopal has grown from a small town to a hub of many economic activities. It is a synthesis of theold and the new with bustling bazaars in the old city area and modern industrial centers.
Development has touched every aspect of life in the city, from potable water and sewage systems toroads and the vehicles that ply on them. At present the land use planning, the pattern ofdevelopment and appropriate infrastructure provision have not kept pace with the economic
growth of the city. Due to rapid rate of urbanization, the city fabric is being stressed with growing
transport concentration and rising energy consumption.
Bhopal with its development planning proposals and efforts of the civic society along with host of
government and non government agencies is well poised to become a role model for central India
with its clean and green surroundings, tourist friendly transport system, green pathways andenergy efficient and environment friendly industry and good governance.
Based on the results of the present study, it can be envisaged that a city like Bhopal can move onto the path of becoming a low carbon society city to be able to address the issues of increasingenergy consumption and emissions. This would be possible only if needful steps and planningmeasures are taken in coming years to address the infrastructure bottlenecks and by adoption ofcleaner technologies. It is expected that the policymakers will be able to accommodate theserequirements addressing the environmental concerns and Bhopal will emerge as the first low
carbon society state capital in India.

***

 ***

24

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Appendix-A: Methodology and Framework
The LCS Study Methodology

Modeling framework

The LCS studies commonly use problem
formulation methodology where thesocioeconomic assumptions of the target year,
environmental load emissions, and measures
for reduction are collectively called ‘futuresociety image’. Suitable actions for the study
area are then identified that are needed totransform the present condition to theidentified ‘future society image’ (Figure 24).

For the present research the study area asstated above is Bhopal district with urbanrural mix. Major urban areas have highconcentration of population, high density ofvehicles on road, high volume of traffic,
concentration of commercial and industrial
activities contributing a greater share in thelocal economy and rural hinterland
characterized by low population, low density ofvehicles, poor infrastructure facilities andlivelihood agrarian in nature having potential
for growth with increasing influence of theurban area. Commensurate with rapid growthof Indian economy, Bhopal is witnessing aspurt in economic activities leading to fasterland development, population growth andincrease in residential, commercial andtransport requirements. These increasing
economic activities coupled with growing
demand have led to rise in emissions andinfrastructure bottlenecks

Future Society Image

Socio-economic assumptions
Consumption

Population
Composition

Industrial
Structure

Economic
GrowthLand Use

Transport
DemandPresent
condition

Environmental load
Emissions
Required measures

With given
assumptions

To be
estimated

Figure 24. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario

To create a local low-carbon society scenario,
concept of ‘back casting’ is used, which firstsets a desirable goal, and then seeks the ways
to achieve it. In this process, to formulate theframework of LCS scenario for a region, aproblem outline is drawn that establishes thecoverage areas, base and target year, targeted
activities, environmental targets and numberof scenarios. This is followed by description ofsocio-economic assumptions for developing
qualitative future image and quantification of
the parameters (Figure 25). The parameters ofsocio-economic assumptions, economic
growth rate of the region, export value byindustry and population characteristics,
considered to have large influence on GHG
emissions, are then used as exogenous
variables for AIM/ExSS model.
1. Framework setting

2. Description of socio-economic
assumptions

4. Collections of low carbon
measures in the region

3. Quantification of socioeconomic assumptions

5. Setting interventions in thetarget year

6. Estimating CO2 emissions in
the target year
Yes

No
Target achieved

7. Confirming measures andsuggesting strategy and policy

Figure 25: Low carbon society study framework(Adapted from Gomi et al. 2010)

These characteristics of Bhopal district
having different growth rates, diverse levels of
infrastructure facilities, difference in energy
consumption levels, fast changing economic
activity, occupational pattern and land use, arethe drivers for strategy formulation for various
emission mitigation options leading todevelopment of low carbon pathway for
Bhopal in coming years.
In the next step, the interventions
considered feasible to be introduced for atarget year are collected. These include, but are
not limited to, energy-saving technology,change of traffic structure, increasing use ofrenewable energy, energy-saving actions, thesource of absorption, etc. To ascertain thesuitable combination of interventions andmeasures, standards, expenses minimization,
stakeholders’ receptiveness, and technicalfeasibility is considered. Applying possible
values of technical parameters (energy
efficiency, technology share, etc.), GHG
emissions are estimated in a reiterative
process till the set targets are achieved. Basedon these conforming measures, actions andpolicy recommendations are formulated andsuggested.
The estimation system of Extended Snapshot(AIM/ExSS) Model is shown in Figure 26. The
AIM/ExSS model can capture the emission
reductions of each counter measure thereby
can show the reduction potential of specificpolicy prescription and identify potential highemission reduction countermeasures.

25

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

• Export• Import ratio

Number ofworkers

Labour Module

LabourdemandWage

Macro -economy andIndustry Module

Averageworking time
Privateconsumption

Output• Labor participation ratio• Demographic composition• Average number of family
occupants• Commuting OD• Government expenditure• Labour productivity

Population and Household
Number Module

IncomeTime - use andConsumption Module

Population
Number ofhouseholds• Breakdown ofconsumption• Floor area per
outputCommercial
Building Module

Floor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG
Emissions Module• Energy service demand generation unit
• Energy efficiency• Fuel share• Emission factor

Figure 26: Estimation system of AIM/ExSS Model(Adapted from Gomi et al. 2010)

The Upper Lake

• Population distribution• Trip per person• Transport distance• Modal share

Transport
Module

GHG emissions

ModuleMain endogenous
variables

Flow of endogenous variables

Exogenous variables
and parameters
Input

Agriculture

0.33

0.03

3.23

Rest of Tertiary

Banking & Insurance

Gross Value Added

0.00

0.00

0.17

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

(0.00)

0.05

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.37

1.04

0.04

0.09

0.05

0.04

0.22

0.01

0.00

22.8
311.1

Freight

Total

30.9

12.8

148.4

Oil

2.05

5.10

0.90

3.62

0.76

0.23

8.77

2.41

96.3
49.9

0.09
0.06

Passenger

38.6

1.6

Industry

9.7

Commercial

Coal

Residential

2005

Energy Balance Table in the Base Year(0.25)

0.06

Elec Gas Water

Tax

0.33

0.03

Manufacturing

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.03

7.02

0.77

2.32

0.39

0.42

5.40

0.71

0.00

10.9

3.8

5.8

1.2

Gas

(0.39)

1.62

0.23

0.56

1.14

0.08

0.66

0.52

0.00

0.00

(0.13)

48.62

1.76

7.32

0.82

0.94

8.17

0.03

0.00

0.01

1.34

0.5

0.5

Solar

0.00

1.47

0.19

0.14

0.02

0.01

0.07

Banking &Insurance

Construction

0.00

MiningForest0.00

Fisheries

0.00

MiningFisheries

Manufacturing

ForestConstruction
0.01

Elec Gas Water

0.15

Rest of Tertiary

1.81

1.67

68.33

0.62

12.53

1.19

0.00

4.82

0.00

0.72

8.43

11.21

PrivateConsumption

0.00

199.4

64.5

9.7

125.2

Biomass

0.35

10.35

0.00

0.01

1.57

0.00

0.00

0.00

Government
Investment

0.00

0.02

8.95

5.00

0.25

Fix

0.00

(2.98)(0.00)(0.00)(11.28)(2.31)(0.73)(8.42)(11.03)

79.4

0.5

0.7

39.7

16.8

21.7

Electricity

0.01

31.59

6.57

2.06

0.49

0.00

0.00

0.02

Export0.96

ImportAgriculture

2005

Input-Output table in the Base Year26

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Appendix-B: Data Tables

0.01

0.00

0.19

0.00

0.09

10.66

(0.84)

Rest of Tertiary

Banking & Insurance

Gross Value Added

Tax(0.00)

0.04

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.69

4.78

0.18

0.43

0.24

0.20

1.01

0.06

0.00

0.07

128.3

Freight

Total

1719.8

19.6

487.4

Passenger

201.8

126.4

125.6
230.1

4.7
92.7

Industry

Commercial

168.0

0.8

21.2

748.4

2035 BaU

104.5

Gas

(2.50)

10.28

1.44

3.55

7.23

0.49

4.20

3.31

0.00

0.00

Residential

0.17

39.39

4.31

13.02

2.18

2.35

30.28

3.98

0.00

0.39

0.82

Oil

11.42

28.49

5.05

20.24

4.25

1.26

48.97

13.47

0.35

0.52

Coal

Energy Balance Table in the Target Year

0.00

0.19

1.08

Elec Gas Water

0.01

0.00

1.11

0.09

Construction

0.00

Manufacturing

0.00

0.00

Agriculture

0.00

ForestFisheries

Fisheries

MiningMining
10.10

Manufacturing

0.00

Construction

0.00

Elec Gas Water

0.00(0.72)

270.93

9.81

40.78

4.58

5.25

45.55

0.14

0.02

0.03

7.47

Rest of Tertiary

0.00

48.5

2.6

45.9

Solar

0.03

9.10

1.17

0.84

0.15

0.09

0.41

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Banking &Insurance

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.14

69.87

9.27

0.00

27.08

0.00

0.19

8.43

29.68

PrivateConsumption

0.00

353.7

245.2

11.7

96.8

Biomass

0.00

0.00

2.90

57.74

0.01

0.04

8.83

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Government
Investment

3.16

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.10

0.00

50.26

28.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.66

Fix

0.00

0.00

0.00

(18.39)(0.00)(0.03)

0.00(62.97)(13.15)(0.52)(9.18)(36.48)

552.6

3.0

3.5

161.4

96.5

288.2

Electricity

0.00

0.00

0.09

176.18

0.00

36.87

11.56

0.77

0.00

0.00

0.06

ExportForestImportAgriculture2035

Input-Output table in the Target Year

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035
27

28

Low Carbon Society Scenario Bhopal 2035

Appendix-C: Sources of Data
PurposeData use

Source1. Economic Parameters

Input Output
Table

SAM
Estimation
Projections
for changes
in economic
structure

Estimates forBase Year
2005

•
•

CSO (2007). Central Statistical Organisation, INPUT-OUTPUT TRANSACTIONS TABLE 2003-04.
CSO (2009). Central Statistical Organisation, INPUT-OUTPUT TRANSACTIONS TABLE 2006-07.

•

GoMP (2007-08). Economic Survey of Madhya Pradesh (in Hindi) 2007-08, Directorate of Economics
and Statistics, Madhya Pradesh.
Indicus Analytics. District GDP Estimates (2006-07), http://www.indicus.net, 2009.
DDR(2008). District Development Report, Divisional Planning and Statistics Office, Bhopal Division
Publication (In Hindi), Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh•••

FutureProjections
for Year
2035

•
•
•
•
•
•

Economy Watch. India Economic Indicators for Years 2011- 2015 (Forecast) (2010), http://
www.economywatch.com.
Long term DGDP projection using a combination of exponential and logistic curves till 2035.
Expert opinion is used to validate the GDP growth rates in future periods.
The sectoral shares in DGDP of used sectors are determined using past series CAGR and projections for
India in those sectors.
Expert opinion is used to validate the DGDP growth rates and sectoral share projections in 2035.
From future share projections, the absolute values for DGVA by the different sectors are estimated.
Gomi, Kei, Kouji Shimada and Yuzuru Matsuoka, (2010), A low-carbon scenario creation method for a
local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city, Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4783-4796.
2. Demographic Parameters

Estimates forBase year
2005
Population
FutureProjections
for Year
2035

•
•
•
•
•
•

Census (2001 a). Census of India: Primary Census Abstract, Office of the Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.
DDR (2008). District Development Report, Divisional Planning and Statistics Office, Bhopal Division
Publication (In Hindi), Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh
BCDP (2005). Bhopal City Development Plan, (2005), Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal
Mission (JNURM).
Population projections for India and States 2001-2026, (2006), Report of the Technical Group on
Population Projections, National Commission on Population, Census of India.
District Level Population Projections in Eight Selected States of India 2006-2016, (2009), United Nations
Population Fund (UNFPA) – India Publication.
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. (2009), Population Division, Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, United Nations.
3. Transport Parameters•••
Transport
sectorcomposition(Passenger
and Freight)

Estimates forBase year
2005

•
•
•
•
•

FutureProjections
for year 2035•••

BRTS (2006). Bus Rapid Transport - Detailed Planning Report (Bhopal), (2006), prepared by BCECOM,
Bhopal Municipal Corporation, Bhopal.
Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Study for Bhopal Urban Area, (2005), Ministry of Urban
Development, Government of India.
RTO Bhopal (2006-07). Annual Report 2006-07, Road Transport Office (RTO), Bhopal, Ministry of Road
Transport, Government of Madhya Pradesh
Traffic & Transportation Policies & Strategies, Wilbur Smith Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd., 2008,
Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India.
Barter, P., Kenworthy, J. and Laube, F. (2003) Lessons from Asia on Sustainable Urban Transport
Indian Cities: Transport Indicators, (2009), EMBARQ Network & Center for Sustainable Transport (CST)
Asia.
(BCDP, 2005). Bhopal City Development Plan, Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission(JNNURM), Bhopal Municipal Corporation, Bhopal.
Road Transport Year Book (2006-07), Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India.
Bus Rapid Transport - Detailed Planning Report (Bhopal), (2006), prepared by BCECOM, Bhopal
Municipal Corporation, Bhopal.
Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Study for Bhopal Urban Area, (2005), Ministry of Urban
Development, Government of India.
Traffic & Transportation Policies & Strategies, Wilbur Smith Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd., 2008,
Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India.
4. Floor Area Parameters

Land use
and floor
area

Estimates forBase year
2005

•
•
•

BDP (1991). Bhopal Development Plan 1991, Government of Madhya Pradesh
BDP (2005). Bhopal Development Plan 2005, Government of Madhya Pradesh
BDP (2021). Bhopal Development Plan (Proposed) 2021, Government of Madhya Pradesh.
5. Energy Use Parameters

EnergyBalance
Table
Estimation(Energyconsumption
and use)Estimates forBase year
2005

•
•
•
•
•
•

Annual Report (2006-07), Department of Food & Civil Supplies, Government of Madhya Pradesh.
Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries: Beyond 2020 Documentation, 2007 Edition
ICLEI (2008). Energy and Carbon Emission Profile of 53 South Asian Cities, 2007-08, ICLEI South Asia
Census (2001 b). Housing Census of India 2001, H-7, Office of the Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.
DDR (2008). District Development Report, Divisional Planning and Statistics Office, Bhopal Division
Publication (In Hindi), Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh
NSSO, (2006). National Sample Survey, 62nd Round: July 2005 – June 2006. National Sample Survey
Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.

Contact
Aashish Deshpande,
Department of Management Studies,
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology,
Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, INDIA - 462051.
Phone: +91 755 405-1490
Fax: +91 755 2670562
Email: deshpandea@manit.ac.in; aashish.deshpande@gmail.com

Manmohan Kapshe,
Department of Planning,
School of Planning and Architecture,
Present Campus: Sports Complex, MANIT, Bhopal,
Madhya Pradesh, INDIA - 462051.
Phone: +91 755 2670910 Extn. 215
Fax: +91 755 2670908
Email: mkapshe@spabhopal.ac.in; mkapshe@gmail.com

Low Carbon Society Scenario

Bhopal2035