Draft Report—For limited circulation only

A road map towards
Low Carbon
Ahmedabad 2050

Preface
This roadmap is in continuation to our earlier study Ahmedabad LCS Vision 2035. This
research has been supported by various government agencies ( f or discussions and data ) and is a collaboration among various academic and research institutions, namelyIndian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Kyoto University, National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba and Mizuho Information and Research Institute Japan.
We felt the need for extending this study for a much longer period so as to coincide withthe generally agreeable year of 2050 for implementing long-term measures. This timeline
gives us an opportunity to rethink the development paradigm in the city considering thelatest developments in the economy and other sectors.
This LCS roadmap document intends to communicate to city level policy makers - how toeffectively integrate carbon mitigation actions in the development plans of the city. The
actions outlined in the document, we believe, would guide effective transition towards a
Low Carbon Ahmedabad. The proposed actions are in line with national position articulated in India’ s National Climate Change Action Plan and official Government position invarious high level declarations such as the “ C openhagen Accord” .
We sincerely hope that our research findings, we hope will contribute to towards a sustainable transition in Ahmedabad .
- P. R. Shukla

India

State of Gujarat

2

City of Ahmedabad

Table of Contents
Executive summary
Policy Package for Ahmedabad

4
5

Background

6

Target setting and Timeline

7

About Ahmedabad

8

Some initiatives underway

9Land Use Planning10

Spatial Growth11

Scenario Economic Assumptions

12

Sectoral Assumptions

14

LCS Scenarios: Qualitative Storylines

16

Energy & Emissions: 2035 and 2050

18

Mitigation potential in 2035 and 2050

20

Low Carbon Infrastructures

21

Actions towards LCS

22

Description of Actions

23

Governance & Financing

25

Snapshot of Solid Waste Management

26

Energy and Environment Policies in India

27

Data Preparation

28

Methodology

30

3Executive summary
This report articulates a low carbon vision forthe city of Ahmedabad. The methodology
involves deducing current socio economic,
energy and emission parameters for the cityusing the base year ( 2005 ) data . This data
has been methodically prepared using various
approaches as enunciated in literature for various sectors. These parameters are used inconjunction with the future energy service
demands, energy technology assumptions, andsocio economic assumptions for Ahmedabad( p opulation, etc ) from the City Development
Plan ( CDP) and expert opinion, to obtain thetarget years ( 2035, 2050 ) socio economic
and other assumptions.

potential as compared to decarbonisation ofenergy. Besides, there is a substantial mitigation potential from fuel switch and energy efficiency. Specifically, this would mean improvements in energy intensity of economic activities, like reduction in energy service demandfor industrial, transport and commercial sector,
cleaner and greener power ( renewable likehydro, solar and biomass ) , and promoting end-use device efficiency in the transport sector,
industrial and residential sector.
These countermeasures can be presented as apolicy package for Ahmedabad, as describedin the next page.

In order to transit to a low carbon society in Ahmedabad, several countermeasures are required. It is interestingly observed from themodel output that for such a transition in Ahmedabad, decoupling of economic growth andenergy use emerges as the highest mitigation
Figure 1: GHG emissions and mitigations by means ( mt CO2)
100.0
90.0
Vehcile Efficiency

80.0
70.0

Industrial Efficiency

60.0

Building Efficiency

50.0

Fuel Switch

40.0

Energy Intensity of service demand

30.0

Emissions

20.0
10.0
0.0
2005

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

2050 BaU

42050 LCS

Policy Package for Ahmedabad
For realizing the vision of a Low Carbon Society for Ahmedabad, a comprehensive list of policy
options are required, focused at implementation of the different mitigation measures. The policy
package suggested below is a menu of such actions, that is needed to be integrated in the city
development plan of Ahmedabad. When pursued together, these set of actions would help in devising dedicated policies in the near term, thereby helping in the realization of low-carbon society
vision for Ahmedabad.

5BackgroundIn the developed world context, the concept ofa low-carbon society has the following attributes:( 1 ) Actions should be compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development,
however not at the cost of the development needs of all groups in the society.
( 2 ) Make an equitable contribution towards
global efforts in stabilizing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and other
GHG gases, through deep emission
cuts.
( 3 ) Use low-carbon energy sources andtechnologies and demonstrate a highlevel of energy efficiency at all levels ofenergy usage.
( 4 ) Adopt certain behavioral and consumption styles that are consistent with lowlevels of greenhouse gas emissions.

of Life ’ should be embodied within the broader deliverables of providing a safe, secure anda comfortable city. Such a society would not
emerge in the immediate future but decisions
regarding key choices have to be taken now.
Such choices would be either resource/sector
based or hard/soft type. While the former controls key energy service demands in certain
sectors like residential, building, commercial,
etc but the latter, provides an alternative option
through either physical type decisions or management decisions. It is important to recognizethat the concept of LCS from a city-level perspective should be planned within the jurisdiction levels of the local government. Specifically,
only those activities or actions should be considered which the local government is capableof influencing like operationalisation of standards in building sector, promoting the concept
of 3R etc.

However, the concept of a low-carbon society
has a different meaning for the developingworld. Countries, like India, still have low per
capita emissions, are on an increasing economic growth trajectory and have priorities inmeeting the development needs, like education, healthcare.

At the next level, the LCS framework at the citylevel should look at opportunities which create
various kinds of co-benefits apart from direct
GHG emission reductions. Such co-benefits,
like improved local air quality, provide an opportunity to minimize social costs of such atransition. The other advantage of such an approach would be in achieving “ m ultiple dividends ” , at minimum social cost. It also helps
in achieving various developmental goals of thecity and therefore, is in line with the concept ofsustainable development.

But, the LCS opportunity for developing countries arrives with a window of opportunity, as it
gives a chance for such countries to avoid
critical lock-ins; particularly in long-lived infrastructure assets. From the perspective of acity, like Ahmedabad, the LCS opportunity is awindow to decide about the future flow of energy through infrastructure and other behavioral and lifestyle related choices and therefore the importance of such a study.

Extending the LCS framework further, the city
would therefore be in conformance with a climate friendly regime. However at the sametime the city would also be resilient to climatic
variability. The LCS opportunity should therefore be looked at in terms of a platform forplanning for climatic exigencies and therefore,
minimize operational and other losses.

For setting priorities within the overall framework of an LCS society, it is imperative to understand the long-term goals for such a society. At the Ahmedabad city level, the overall aim
of implementing actions within the LCS framework should aim at improving the “ Q uality ofLife ” ( QO L ) of the local residents. ‘ Quality
6

Target Setting and Timeline
The current selection of target years: 2035 and2050 is done by keeping in mind the three time
periods:( 1 ) Period up to 2020 ( the terminal year of
Post-Kyoto global carbon architecture
period ) , by which many developing nations ( including India) have promised
voluntary emission reductions.
( 2 ) Intermediate year of 2035, which gives
an opportunity to check the progress
made towards the long-term global commitments of GHG emission reduction by2050.
( 3 ) Period terminating in 2050, the year bywhich most of emission cuts are pledgedby the developed as well as the developing world alike.

In the recent G8+5 summit, deep global reduction target of GHG emissions were agreed upon by nations, with a concern towards stabilizing mean global temperature rise at 2º Celsius
above the pre industrial level. The present LCS
study is in line with the same targets. This scenario has also been endorsed at the 2009 declaration by the leaders of the “ Major Economies Forum” . However, India has particularly
acknowledged, that it would, at no point in time,exceed the current emission levels ( i.e at2005 levels) of the Annex 1 countries.
The idea of LCS is not committing to the 2 deg
C target, but an aspirational attempt being
made by India. However this target is subject toadequate financial and technological commitment as agreed upon under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change and also by the
declaration of world leaders of the major economies. A city like Ahmedabad is also participa-

Figure 2: “Ellis Bridge” connecting east and west Ahmedabad

The time period is typically situated so as toassess the progress towards meeting GHG
emission targets. Therefore actions taken now
could be assessed by 2035 so as to get a realistic estimate about achieving deep cuts in
GHG emissions by 2050; as envisaged by
global leaders at ( G 8+5 ) summit in 2009.
The targets in this study are in line with suchglobal commitments, as city level planning is apart of the larger national policy making in India. The immediate future, 2020 ( terminal
year of post-Kyoto period ) and the long-term
future, 2050; coincides well with the target
years chosen for this study.

Figure 3: A glimpse of land use planning scenario in Ahmedabad

tory to these global efforts but would need financial, technical and other ( carbon finance )instruments, as agreed upon under the framework convention on climate change, to achievethese aspirational targets. These efforts do notunder any circumstance undermine the importance of various bilateral efforts in achieving
the LCS targets.

7

About Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad is the seventh largest urban agglomeration ( U A* ) in India, and thelargest city in the state of Gujarat. The city
plays a significant role in the economy of thestate of Gujarat, accounting for almost 19 percent of main urban workers in the state.
The city was founded in the year 1411
AD and is located on the banks of River
Sabarmati. Ahmedabad gets its name from
Sultan Ahmed Shah, who founded the city.
Over the last 600 years, the city of Ahmedabad
has come a long way, from what was developed as a cluster enclosed by a wall in 1456
AD. In the late 19th century, development started spilling over towards the northeast andsoutheast of the walled city.

merce remains unchanged. The city also has alarge market for consumer goods in the retailing sector.
Several key high-growth industries
such as textiles, pharmaceuticals and natural
gas are already firmly anchored in Ahmedabad.
The industrial centers around Ahmedabad arecontinuously experiencing expansion on account of economic growth.
The economic
base of the city is now shifting towards tertiary( s ervice ) sectors, which now account for
more than 50% of total employment. Ahmedabad is also a major financial centre contributing
about 14% of the total investments in stock exchanges in India.
Ahmedabad and its surroundings are
currently under the jurisdictional authority of
two local bodies, namely the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation ( A MC ) and the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority ( AUDA ) .
Beyond the municipal limits; the development
is managed by the AUDA.

Table 1: Ahmedabad Demographics
Parameter

AMC

Urban
Agglomeration

Figure 4: East and West Ahmedabad separated by the Sabarmati River

Historically Ahmedabad has been oneof the most important centers of trade andcommerce in western India. It was once known
as the “ Manchester of India ” owing to its textile industry. With the establishment of the firsttextile mill in 1861, residences also developed
across the western side of the Sabarmati river.
Today some of the industrial activities
that have flourished in the city over the last few
decades include chemicals, pharmaceuticals,
electronics, dyes and paints. Ahmedabad ’ sstatus as an important centre of trade and com-

Population (Million)- 1991- 2001- 2006(estimated)

2.8
3.5
4.9

3.3
4.5
5.1

Population Growth- 1991-2001

2.03%

2.74%

Area (Km2)- 2001- 2006

190.8
464.1

485
485

18,445#9,290
10,609Density (per sq. km.)
2001
2006

# In 2006, the jurisdictional limit of AMC was increased to 464.16 sq. km.
This new limit coincides with the limits of the Ahmedabad Urban Agglomeration. The density of AMC in 2006 has not been calculated since thearea of AMC in 2006 was almost equal to the UA area and the new AMC
imits now included the population formerly housed in UA limits.

* Urban Agglomeration: It is a continuous urban spread constituting a town and its
adjoining urban outgrowths.

8Some Initiatives Underway
Many initiatives are being undertaken currently by
the city and the state. The recently announced
township policy promotes townships to come up
at growth nodes emerging around various industrial clusters. The policy sees the government asa facilitator providing 'trunk infrastructure' like access roads, bulk water supply and bulk power( e lectricity and gas ) . This would facilitate effective planning for city level infrastructure for anticipated expansion and growth in the future. Besides, there are various initiatives underway inthe urban transport infrastructure sector, with the
Bus Rapid Transit System ( BRTS ) under execution and the Mass Rapid Transit System( M etro ) being planned. These initiatives would
also play a significant role in the energy flows andrelated emissions from the city.

improved collection. This has also resulted in an
enhanced quality of service for passengers, mapping out loss making routes, reduces overlappingof routes and maximizing fleet usage by efficientmanagement through constant monitoring of buses on various routes. The local government has
also taken an initiative to develop the Sabarmati
riverfront ( Figure 6 ) . This project also demonstrates governance initiative, since it is being
managed by a special purpose vehicle ( SPV ) ,which is coordinating all the activities pertaining
to this project.

Figure 6: Sabarmati River Front , being developed at Ahmedabad

Among the latest technological innovations, AMC
has developed Asia ’ s largest landfill site, developed over a total area of 2.77 Km2, to dispose
1.15 Million tonnes of waste. It has been designed to meet city ’ s requirements for the next
30 years. Solid waste will be segregated into biodegradable and non-biodegradable categories
and dumped in a systematic manner, adhering toenvironmental standards. The waste would thenbe used to make pellets and fluff, to be used asfuel in local industries. This initiative of recycling
waste to useful energy form by generation of methane ( CH4 ) is currently running successfully
under pilot phase for other existing solid waste
management ( SWM ) treatment plant. The areaaround the newly created SWM site has beenplanned to be developed as a “ Green Zone ” ,which would contribute in improving the ambientenvironment. Thus, the creation of such an environmental infrastructure leads to multiple dividends.

Figure 5: “Janmarg” - The BRTS Corridor under development

The new regional plan submitted to the government envisages Ahmedabad into a much bigger
Ahmedabad Metropolitan Area. It plans for a multi-modal transportation hub with Metro rail, BRTS,
regional rail and the mass rapid transit systems in
the next 7-10 years. This regional plan has been
prepared for an area of 10,000 Km2 , which also
comprises of 5 air strips within 65 km radius fromthe city and four multi-modal transport stations in
the vicinity.
Reforms in the public transportation system includes low-floored CNG buses fitted with vehicle
tracking system ( GPS) and bus conductors
with hand-held electronic ticketing machine. This
has resulted in an increase of bus patronage, and9Land Use Planning
The Land use of Ahmedabad is diverse andstrongly contrasting on either side of the river( East and West Ahmedabad, or as it is called
locally- Old and New city ) . The contrast is not
only in terms of resources but also in economic
profitability and environmental sustainability.
Ahmedabad shows differing trends in spatial
development. It is spilling over towards thenortheast and southeast of the walled city.
While residences also developed across thewestern side of the Sabarmati river to meet therising demand for housing, changing household
pattern and structural changes in the city economy. People everywhere are moving from in-city areas into the outer, a development for
which growing car ownership and the modal
shift from public transport to car act simultaneously as both causes and effects. In addition toland area, the amount of floor-space per person is also growing, This, too, can be seen as
both a cause and an effect of urban sprawl.

niques which may be applied to implement themaster plan and to guide urban development tospatially appropriate areas include designationof sensitive land resources and areas, establishment of buffer zones, management of hazard-prone lands, protection of cultural resources, setting up of recycling schemes, conservation of open spaces and guiding and discouraging of excessive urban sprawl.
Land use Planning and Transport:
Land use and transport are strongly interlinked.
Land use patterns such as location, scale, density, mix , clustering and connectivity may not
automatically cause a shift towards sustainable
travel behavior, however it can definitely provide an option and support to facilitate the transition towards such behavior. Also, under thegrowing threat of climate change and the strict
global stabilization targets, there is an increased need to limit the GHG emissions fromtransport. Appropriate land use planning in
growing cities like Ahmedabad can substantially limit the increasing travel demand, thereby
leading to various spill over benefits like reduced congestions and improved air quality.
Besides, there is an improvement in the overall
quality of life, by making it easier for people toaccess the appropriate transport as per theirneed.
Thus, the government should encourage an
efficient use of urban land by setting targets forthe percentage of development occurring on
brown fields, the promotion of “ t own centre
first ” policies, setting housing density targets,and reforming business rate relief for empty
property and also consider introducing acharge on vacant and derelict land. Preservation of open space near town and cities, andredevelopment of vacant land not only reducestransport cost but also reduces the cost ofproviding and operating public services andutilities. Green belt is also equally important tocheck unrestricted sprawl of large built up area.
All such policy initiatives are crucial for a developing city like Ahmedabad, which is projected
to grow substantially over the next 40 years.

After the establishment of Land Administration Bureau
in 1986, China carried out national land use planning
twice. One of which was focused on “serving for socialand economic development” and second one was to“protect arable land”. They also aim to achieve higher in their ongoing project for land use planning in thenear term horizon of 2005-2020 .

It is widely acknowledged that avoiding urban
sprawl through high density and mixed-use settlement patterns offers environmental advantages pertaining to land use, transport andheating, thereby contributing to reduce the resource use per capita. In a developing city like
Ahmedabad, Urban planning and its effective
implementation requires proper Land Use( L U ) planning to create curative LU Patterns
that provide maximum mobility without the lossof natural habitats and biodiversity. Thus at thecity level, it is necessary to have proactive response from local government to carry out an
integrated land use planning to comprehensively address the adverse impacts of urbanization including heat island effect. Zoning tech10

Spatial growth11Socio Economic Assumptions
The population of Ahmedabad has increased
from 2.8 million in 1991 to 3.5 million in 2001.
In response to rapid increase in population anddevelopment on the fringes, the jurisdictional
limit of AMC was increased to 464.16 sq. km in
2006. The major portion of this extension ofmunicipal borders has taken place on the western side of Ahmedabad. The western region is
actually seen as the modern, dynamic and well-planned part of the city, offering world-famous
educational institutions, most recent malls andentertainment facilities, and high-income residential areas. The new outgrowths have beenin the western parts of the city, within the AUDA jurisdiction.

the base year. Similarly, the target year GDP of
Ahmedabad and Gujarat was determined using
the GDP of India, keeping macro-economic
consistency. Thus, on the basis of these assumptions, the modeling results show that thereal GDP of Ahmedabad in 2050 is expected tobe approximately INR 3673 billion ( 12.0 times
the 2005 level ) .
The specific inputs to the model about the transitions in the structure of the economy are:share of the primary sector changes from
3.03% in 2005 to 1.3% in 2035 and 1.1% in
2050, while the share of secondary sector reduces from 69.2% in 2005 to 59.0% in 2035
and further to 49.5% in 2050 BAU. The tertiary
sector gains from 27.8% in 2005 to 39.7% in2035 and further to 49.4% in 2050. Considering
the trends, it is obvious that the structure of theeconomy is moving towards more tertiary andsecondary sector activities at the cost of primary. Thus there is a structural shift in the economy of the city, which is in line with the experiences and trends worldwide.

Using expert opinion, published references andour own estimates, it is projected that the population of Ahmedabad would increase to 7.8 million in 2035, and would further rise to 12 million
in 2050. Using this assumption about population and other assumptions ( see Table 2 )about 2035 & 2050 Ahmedabad, future socioeconomic indicators in 2035 & 2050 are estimated exogenously ( see Table 3 ) , which
will be used as inputs in running the model forthe target years. Following are the important
assumptions for target years:

Further, to determine the structure of the economy in future, PFCE and other numbers regarding investments and government consumption have been estimated based on best
available references and expert judgment. For
the intermediate year of 2035, it is assumed
that that import of agriculture commodities further increases ( in line with the decrease inshare of primary activities ) and the share ofelectricity import also reduces, due to somelocalized generation in terms of solar and biomass. On the private consumption side, there
will be a reduction in the share agriculture consumption, which will be complemented by anincrease in consumption of manufacturing sector goods and a minor increase in service consumption.
There will be an increased share of private investment in electricity and water services,whereas the share of investment in manufacturing and construction sector will reduce, as

Economy: An input-output framework has beenused to determine the future structure of theeconomy, where the future economic parameters ( GDP, etc ) are obtained using certain
exogenous assumptions on the expected structure of the Ahmedabad economy in target
years. In order to estimate GDP projections for
Ahmedabad, a top-down approach was followed. This approach uses the current GDP
and future projections of India ’ s GDP ( basedon growth rate projections ) as a starting point.
Further, the GDP growth rate for Gujarat were
pegged at 2% above India ’ s GDP growth figures i.e. 10% from 2004-2032 and 8% from thesuccessive period till 2050. Gujarat GDP was
pegged at 7 % of India GDP, and Ahmedabad
GDP was pegged at 17% of Gujarat GDP for
12

compared to the base year. A similar trend isassumed for government investments, where
the share of investment in electricity and water
will increase, with a reduction in the share ofinvestment in construction. The share of government investment in services, the distributionof government consumption, and the distribution of exports has been kept the same. It is
worthwhile to mention, that in spite of decreasein the relative shares, the absolute number will
still be rising for all the sectors, due to an overall expansion of the economy from 2005 to2035. For example, the private consumption in
2035 will be increased from more than the factor of population rise, on account of an assumed increase in consumerism.

from outside ( from the state /national grid ) .
There will be a further reduction in the share of
agriculture in private consumption side, whereas there will be a continuous increase in the
consumption of services. For the private investment, the trend between 2005-2035 will be furthered, which will have an increased investment in electricity and water services, and areduced share of investments in manufacturing
and construction sector. The government investment will also follow a similar trend. For theexports, there will be a reduction in the share ofmanufacturing, giving way to the export of specialized services from the city like real estate,banking, insurance, IT and ITeS. In fact, exports and imports are both assumed to be increasing, on account of a more integrated
economy with high degree of economic activities with outside.

For target year of 2050, it is assumed that agriculture import will increase to almost 100%. At
the same time, the increased requirement ofelectricity in the city will largely be imported

Table 2: Quantitative Assumptions of socio-economic indicators ( 2035 and 2050)
Parameter
2035 BAU
2050 BAU
Demographic composition

0-6 : 33%
7-64: 62%
>65 : 5%0-6 : 20%
7-64: 65%
>65 : 15%

Primary Industry Exports

7.1% CAGR (2005-2035)

7.4% CAGR (2005-2050)

Secondary Industry Exports

6.1% CAGR (2005-2035)

5.8% CAGR (2005-2050)

Tertiary Industry Exports

10.4% CAGR (2005-2035)

10.8% CAGR (2005-2050)

Private consumption

8.0% CAGR (2005-2035)

8.1% CAGR (2005-2050)

Government consumption

9.7% CAGR (2005-2035)

8.4% CAGR (2005-2050)

Fixed capital formation

3.4% CAGR (2005-2035)

9.23% CAGR (2005-2050)

Modal share

2W :24%
SV : 15%
LV : 1.1%
Bus : 15.9%
Train: 8%
Bike : 11%
Walk: 25%

2W : 7%
SV : 15%
LV : 3.4%
Bus : 36.6%
Train: 8%
Bike : 8%
Walk: 22%13

Sectoral Assumptions
Industry: The energy consumption by the industrial sector in the city has shown an increasing trend, and our estimates indicate that theenergy demand CAGR for the 4 year period
between 2003 and 2007 has been a robust 7.5%. This is also the period that experienced
heavy investments in natural gas supply infrastructure in the city, and the corresponding
supply linkages from sources. Thus, this increase can be attributed to growing industrialization during the period and also due to theeasy availability of natural gas as a fuel.

and the energy intensity of the industrial output( p rocesses) . As discussed above, the economy of the city will undergo a structural shift in
the future, where the share of industrial sector
will be reduced from the current levels. However, there will still be a wide increase in the industrial outputs, in terms of absolute numbers.
At the same time, the energy intensity of thevarious industrial process will also experiencea change, partly on account of fuel shift ( fromoil to gas, and subsequently from gas to electricity ) , and also due to the reduction of energy use per unit of output, due to energy efficiency and process level improvements. Thus,
the future energy demand from the industrial
sector in Ahmedabad is driven by an interplayof these factors.

Two largest consumers of energy productsin Ahmedabad are the textiles and chemicals
industry. Textile sector is the largest consumerof energy, primarily in the form of steam andelectricity. The last few years have seen a major substitution of oil usage in Textile sector
with other energy carriers like coal and lignite.
Although natural gas does provide a price advantage, however it is still not used much forsteam generation because of the availability ofcheaper substitutes like coal, lignite, and biomass ( non commercial, for smaller industries ) . The other major industrial sector is thechemicals sector. Nearly 1200 chemical units
operate in Ahmedabad, majority of which areclustered in three major industrial estates.
Steam is the main requirement for these units,
and therefore coal/lignite has historically beenused in boiler applications and other heating
activities ( such as brick kilns, etc) . However,the chemical industry has shown a robust increase in the demand for natural gas in the recent years, replacing coal and lignite. The primary reason is the quality requirements of theindustrial processes ( f or example, ceramics ) , where the flame to be produced has specific technical requirements, and thus it is imperative to use a superior fuel like natural gas.

Households: The model structure provides thepossibility of classifying the households in two
broad categories, based on the type of housing
facility. This classification broadly links to theeconomic status of the residents, and hence
differentiates between the usage of different
services and appliances in the household, andalso the energy usage per capita and the energy source being utilized. Household type hht1
refers to the high income housing, and hht2
refers to the lower income houses. We haveassumed that the share of household( h ht1:hht2) amongst these two types is40:60 in 2005 ( base year, based on actual
data ) . However, because of the rising economic affluence and income effects, the sharechanges to 50:50 in 2035, and further improving to 60:40 in 2050.
Commercial: As highlighted in the descriptionof future economic structure of Ahmedabad( a bove ) , the tertiary sector will have a rapidly rising share in the economy. This will happen
due to the growth of service related activities( b anking, insurance, real estate, IT, ITeS, education, consulting, etc) to the city, and theshifting out of manufacturing related activities

The future demand for energy in the industrial sector at Ahmedabad is driven by two important parameters: the growth of industrial
sector ( driven by the growth in economy ) ,14to other cities in the state or maybe even outside. Also, as the real estate sector in the city/
country develops, it is anticipated that it will be
kept pace by policy reforms aimed at increasing the FSI. Hence, combining all these effects,
our best estimates indicate that the total floor
space for commercial activities will increase
from a base of 21 sq. km in 2005 to 103 sq. km
in 2035 and further to 156 sq. km in 2050 inline with tertiary sector growth.

Thus, with rising incomes, the future resident ofAhmedabad will undergo a change in pattern oftravel, wherein the average number of trips will
be increased in future, on account of some additional leisure and work trips, and also increase in average trips per capita due to more
women being moving to the job market. Also,
due to an expansion in city limits, the average
trip length will also undergo an increase, accounting for the increased distances between
work, home and other travel destinations.
Thus, accounting for the increase in population,
per capita trip rate, and the increases average
trip length, passenger transport demand will
increase from 14.89 Billion passenger-km in2005 to 53.3 Bn mil p-km level in 2035 and further increase to 129.6 in 2050.
The quantitative assumptions that relate tothese storylines can be summarized in Table 2
and 3.

Transport: The main drivers of passenger
transport demand are population, per capita
trip rate ( PCTR ) and the average trip distance ( ATD ) . It is commonly understood that
economic activities have a high correlation withmobility, and thus an increase in overall travel
demand is expected as the economic activities
rise in the city. This increase can be explainedon account of the increase in the above mentioned parameters: population, PCTR and ATD.

Table 3: Estimation result of scenario quantification in 2035 and 2050
Indicator

2005

2035

2050

2050/2005

Population (millions)

4.7

7.8

12.0

2.55

No. of households (millions)

1.1

2.1

3.4

3.1

Average persons/household

4.3

3.7

3.5

0.8

GDP (billion INR)

305

3673

9884

32.4

GDP per capita (‘000 INR)

65

471

824

12.7

Gross output (billion INR)

727

7695

19024

26.2

-Primary industry

22

99

210

9.5

-Secondary

503

4538

9424

18.7

-Tertiary

202

3058

9390

46.5

Commercial Floor space(square km)
Passenger Transport Demand (Million
passenger-km)
Freight Transport Demand (Million tonkm)
BAU Energy Demand (Million toe)

21

103

156

7.4

14.9

53.3

129.6

8.7

3.1

21.7

92.5

30

1.8

11.3

23.0

12

10.2

44.1

86.3

8.5

2.16

5.66

7.19

3.3

BAU CO2 Emissions(Million ton -CO2)BAU Emissions per capita(ton-CO2)

15

LCS Scenario: Qualitative Storylines
In order to achieve the target of transitioning
to a low carbon economy, we need to develop
the low carbon scenarios for a future Ahmedabad. Hence, it was important to collect a set ofcounter measures, which will help us to alter
the energy emission profile in the target year.
However, these counter measures needs to beconsistent with a storyline that defines how wevisualize the Ahmedabad city in future. Thissection presents the storylines for a future articulation of low carbon Ahmedabad, enlisting acollection of several low carbon measures.

a more towards sustainable lifestyle by using
energy efficient materials and local materials.
This will also provide significant co-benefits interms of promoting a sustainable lifestyle, better control of energy service flows and resource
conservation. Similarly, the actions focusing onland Use & urban planning are targeted at increasing the green cover and improving thebuilt environment so as to reduce the urban
heat island effect. At the same time, it is also
crucial to focus actions on planning various environmental infrastructures, such as solid waste
management facilities and sewage treatment
plants. Apart from direct mitigation benefits,these are important in realizing other cobenefits such as resource utilization and enhancing the quality of life. For example, a modern landfill can also be a source of fuels in theform of land fill gas ( L FG ) , pellets and fluff,
which can be used in the local industries. Similarly, significant improvements can be realized
in the energy consumption of public services,by shifting to energy efficient sources like street
lamps.

The qualitative storyline that help us articulate low carbon measures and actions can bepresented as under, classified into few broad
categories, for the ease of understanding:Transport Sector: The actions on sustainabletransport comprises of improvement in vehicle
efficiency, fuel switch from oil to electricity ( forprivate vehicles, buses and train ) , modal shift
from private vehicles to public transport ( busand train ) , and better traffic management.
However to achieve such a scenario, certain
indirect actions would be required. Some ofthese actions will be standardization electricity
supply infrastructure and appropriate institutional mechanisms to ensure transition to mass
based transit systems. All these actions would
lead to a strong decoupling between economic
growth, mobility and transport energy use.

Energy Sector ( Demand Side ) : The actions
focused on demand side are aimed at efficiency improvements achieved through device improvements. These efficiency impacts are realized in residential, commercial, industrial andtransport sectors. It is believed that due totechnological innovations and improvements,
such high efficiency factors are realizable. These efficiency improvements can be consistently
achieved through implementation of uniform
building codes ( efficiency in residential sector ) , standardization in device & vehicle efficiency, promotion of local and less carbon intensive material for construction and designing
an appropriate institutional mechanism to facilitate such a transition.

Urban Sector: The actions aimed at the urban
sector focus on few broad areas, including thebuilding design, land use & urban planning,and on environmental infrastructure for the cities. The low carbon measures focusing on the
Building Design are crucial for controlling theenergy flows in the established assets. Use of
appropriate building technologies, energy audits and associated standardization acrossbuilding types, materials and devices would goa long way in controlling flow of energy acrossthese stocks. The actions are also aimed atpromoting dematerialization, directing towards

Energy Sector ( Supply Side ) : The actions
focused on energy sector aim at fuel switch,decoupling economic growth and energy re-16quirement, and decoupling the carbon intensityof power sector. The action on Fuel Switch refers to switching from coal to gas and other renewable resources of energy like biomass,wind and solar. This switch can happen acrosssectors, like increased use of gas in industries,
piped natural gas for domestic usage and gasbased power production technologies. The
measures for decoupling economic growth andenergy requirement are aimed at process level
improvements in various sectors, especiallyindustry. De-carbonizing the electricity sector
aims at using more renewable sources of energy for power generation or by using coal with
CCS option. Another aspect in low carbon
electricity is generating electricity from waste( s olid waste management ) . Such possibilities have already been explored for Ahmedabad, and are realistic.

motion of local and less carbon intensive material for construction. The action on resource
management aims at better management of
natural resources for a substantial GHG mitigation. Reduced dependence on groundwater for
irrigation and a shift to surface water significantly alters the energy consumption patterns
in the agriculture sector. It also comprises ofcreating various infrastructures such as solid
waste management facilities and sewage treatment plants. Thus, all these actions primarily
target at reducing the energy intensity of theoutput from the local economy. By constructing
common facilities at the city level, one can actually reduce, reuse and recycle many resources and thereby move on to the sustainable style of living. This would give an added
incentive of energy reduction.
Apart from sectoral measures, there are certain
overarching actions that have been consideredseparately. Although such actions, like governance and financing, do not facilitate any carbon
mitigation directly, they do provide support toother low carbon measures. While well designed governance structures ensure that theactions are implemented in the most nonconflicting manner, appropriate financing facilitates that the actions are able to attract innovative funding mechanisms so that the actions
are self sustaining.

Resource Efficiency: The actions focused on
resource efficiency aims at material efficiency
and resource management. The action on material efficiency aims at promoting dematerialization and is directed more towards sustainable lifestyle by using energy efficient materials
and local materials. It also aims at efficiency
improvements achieved from device improvements and reducing energy consumption in
intensive industrial processes. It needs implementation of energy efficiency codes and proFigure 7: Low carbon transitions in transport sector

17

Energy & Emissions : 2035 & 2050
The macroeconomic data is used to estimate
future energy demand and the corresponding
GHG emissions in 2035 and 2050, based on
scenario quantification. The estimated results
about energy demand and GHG emissions areshown in Figures 8-11 below.

creased household services demand on account of increases economic affluence and theassociated penetration of consumer durables.
As can be seen from Figure 4 above, the shareof electricity increases gradually, and a major
portion of the final energy demand is met byelectricity in 2050 ( in this case, gas based
thermal power generation ) , closely followed
by gas. The relative shares of electricity andgas are further enhanced, under the low carbon scenarios. Thus, in terms of infrastructure
choices, it clearly outlines the need for extensive investments in power sector infrastructure,including generation, transmission and distribution.

Final energy demand in Ahmedabad is projected to increase from 1.8 million toe in 2005 to
11.3 million toe in 2035 ( B AU scenario ) , andfurther to 23 mtoe under 2050 BAU scenario.
Industry remains as the bigger consumer ofenergy, maintaining a share of around 60% in
the final energy demand, under various scenarios. The second biggest demand for energy
comes from the household sector, where theshare in final energy use increases fromaround 18 % to 30 %, because of the in-

50.0

Biomass
Nuclear
H2
Oil

40.0
30.0

Solar
Hydro
Gas
Coal

20.0
10.0
0.0
2005

Figure 8: Final energy demand by sector (mtoe)

2035 BaU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

Figure 9: Total primary energy supply (mtoe)t ‐ CO2 /Capita
8.15
5.63
3.13

2.16

2005

Figure 10: Sectoral GHG emissions (mt CO2 )

2035
BAU

2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

Figure 11: Per capita GHG emissions

18

2.32

As can be seen from Figure 9 that the primaryenergy supply is primarily met by gas, althoughvarious other sources like nuclear, solar, andhydro play a crucial rle. Hence, the power infrastructure development will have to follow a
portfolio approach, wherein simultaneous investments have to be made in acquiring power
generation capacity from all these sources, andthe associated transmission infrastructure tohaul the generated power to the city. Besides,
there is a large share of gas in the final energy
use in the city, and hence in order to supply
this gas for final energy use, there will be investment requirements for gas supply infrastructure, which would mean city gas distribution grid for household and retail customers,
and also gas retail outlets for transport sector
customers. Also, in order to support the electricity driven vehicles on the roads, especially
under the 2050 LCS scenario, there will be aneed to develop the charging infrastructure forthese electric cars.

Based on the energy demand by source, theCO2 emissions in Ahmedabad are projected toincrease from 10 million ton CO2 in 2005 to 44
million ton CO2 in 2035 BAU scenario, and further to 86.3 million ton CO2 under the 2050
BAU scenario. However, by making cross sectoral infrastructural investments over the planning horizon extending upto 2050, there is apossibility to limit the overall emissions fromthe city, as has been shown under the 2035
LCS and 2050 LCS scenario ( F igure 10 &12 ) .
As discussed earlier, the biggest consumptionof final energy happens in the industrial andhousehold sector, and correspondingly, the two
sectors are also the biggest contributors to
overall emissions ( Figure 10 and Figure 12 ) .

Figure 12: Sectoral Mitigation Potential (million ton CO2)

19

Mitigation potential in 2035 & 2050
In order to transit to a low carbon society in Ahmedabad, several countermeasures are required. It is interestingly observed from the output that for a LCS transition in Ahmedabad the
major contribution is from reduction of energy
intensity. The major emission reduction potential is from improvements in energy intensity of
economic activities, low carbon power ( more
renewable like hydro, solar and biomass ) , reduction in energy service demand ( f or industrial and commercial sector ) , fuel switch inpower, transport and industrial sector; andmeasures promoting end-use device efficiency( p articularly, in the transport sector, industrial
and residential sector ) .

highlight that there is a significant energy andemission decoupling of GDP which is happening in Ahmedabad over the entire modeling period upto 2050.
As can be seen from Figure 13, that the major
emission reduction potential is from improvements in reduction in service demand and energy intensity of service demand, fuel switch( b oth at end use level, as well as using low
carbon electricity i.e. gas or renewable like hydro, solar and biomass) , and investments promoting end-use device efficiency ( particularly,
in the transport sector, industrial and residential
sector ) . Thus, the sectoral infrastructure developments have to be aligned in the long term,
to address these emission concerns.

Thus with these measures, our target of atleast matching the base level emission figuresor reducing further is achieved and we are situated at less than the base year emission level.
The overall reduction from the base year emission of per capita is 6.6%. It is important toFigure 13 : Breakdown of emissions reduction potential
100.0
90.0
80.0

Vehcile Efficiency

70.0

Industrial Efficiency
60.0

Building Efficiency

50.0

Fuel Switch

40.0
30.0

Energy Intensity

20.0

Emissions
10.0
0.0
2005

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

2050 BaU

20

2050 LCS

Low Carbon Infrastructures
Low carbon transition arrives with a window ofopportunity for developing countries, as it gives
us a chance to avoid critical lock-ins; particularly in long-lived infrastructure assets. From theperspective of a city, like Ahmedabad, it facilitates the decision about the future flow of energy through infrastructure and other behavioral
and lifestyle related choices. As can be seen in
the analysis above, several infrastructure
choices, which could be either resource/sector
based or hard/soft type, determine the futureenergy and emission dynamics of thecity. Thus, a BRTS corridor being implemented
in the city or a Metro under planning will have along term implication on the energy demand of
the transport sector in the city. However, thedecision for such infrastructure investment
choices has to be taken now, to avoid economic and behavioral lock-ins and inertia.

infrastructure. However, the transition to a low
carbon economy provides us with this opportunity to make investments in low carbon electricity, thereby aiming at decoupling the carbon
intensity of power sector by using greener andcleaner energy sources like renewable, nuclear, gas and biomass based generation.
Building and other urban infrastructure: Ahmedabad is a growing city, and hence lot ofdevelopments in urban infrastructure is yet totake place. This provides us an opportunity tobetter control our energy flows in the building
sector ( residential and commercial) . With anappropriate land use planning, multiple benefits
are possible, which can impact the overall
emissions and also the quality of life. The city
planning can account for a transit oriented development to reduce the mobility needs ( andhence the transport energy use) , an increased green cover can be targeted, thereby
improving the built environment so as to reduce
the urban heat island effect. Similarly, uniform
building codes, and promotion of local and lesscarbon intensive material for construction canpromote efficiency in the residential sector.

The possibility of aligning long term infrastructure choices so as to simultaneously achieve
the possible sectoral mitigation of CO2 can bebetter understood as under:
Transport Infrastructures: There is a need forsustainable transitions in the transport sector,
which would mean a focus on public transport
investments so as to shift from private vehicles
to public vehicles ( bus and train ) , appropriate city gas distribution grid to facilitate transition from oil to gas ( private vehicles and buses ) , and also the availability of appropriate
infrastructures ( reticulated electric corridors
for buses, and charging infrastructure forcars ) , so as to facilitate a further transition toelectric vehicles in the long run.
Power Infrastructure: In order to facilitate atransitions to electricity, from coal and gas in
the case of industrial sector, oil and gas in thecase of transport sector, and coal, kerosene
and LPG in the case of residential sector, there
is a need to make investments in power generation as well as transmission and distribution
21

Actions toward LCS
and financing has been separately considered.
While the governance aspect ensures that theactions are implemented in the most nonconflicting manner and the financing action ensures that the actions are able to attract innovative financing mechanisms so that the actions are sustainable by itself. However it must
be noted that all the actions yield multiple cobenefits and build adaptive capacities of thelocal population.

General introduction of actions
Broadly, the actions are enumerated in the following table. The actions can be broadly categorized into those that promotes improvementsin efficiency, to those that encourages sustainable mode of transportation ,to clean forms ofenergy and chiefly, that promotes efficient useof energy resources through promotion of
measures like 3R. However within these actions, the overarching action of governance22Description of “Actions”
The action on Sustainable transport comprises of focus fuel switch from oil to electricty( p rivate vehicles, buses and train) , better traffic management and shift from private vehicles to public vehicles ( b us and train ) . However to achieve such a scenario, certain indirect actions would be required. Some of these actions will be standardization electricity supply infrastructure and appropriate institutional mechanisms to ensure transition to mass
based transit systems. From the developing countries view-point, such an action would yield
multiple benefits. On the co-benefits side, there would be improvement in local air quality
due to reduced pollution and reduction in use of natural resources. Sustainable transport willlead to various adaptation benefits as well, by enhancing health security ( o wing to improved
air quality ) and energy security ( due to reduced energy usage, specially oil ) . This action
gives the added benefit of controlling the energy usage, as electricity is used at the end use.
The action on Energy Efficiency ( E E ) is focused on efficiency improvements achieved
through device improvements. These efficiency impacts are realized in residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors. It is believed that due to technological innovations andimprovements, such high efficiency factors are realizable. These efficiency improvements
can be consistently achieved through implementation of uniform building codes ( efficiency
in residential sector ) , standardization in device & vehicle efficiency norms and its strict implementation & designing an appropriate institutional mechanism to facilitate such a transition.
The action on Low Carbon Electricity aims at decoupling the carbon intensity of power sector
by using more renewable sources of energy for power generation. Another aspect in low
carbon electricity is generating electricity from waste ( solid waste management) . Such
possibilities have already been explored for Ahmedabad, and are realistic. Such shifts in energy technology would yield multiple benefits, such as improvement in local air quality andeffective waste management. On the adaptation side, investments in low carbon electricity
would generate livelihood and build capacity in low carbon energy technologies. Besides,
there would also enhance health security ( owing to improved air quality) and energy security ( due to reduced usage of fossil fuels, specially coal ) .
The action on Material Efficiency aims at promoting dematerialization and is directed more
towards sustainable lifestyle by using energy efficient materials and local materials. This will
also provide significant co-benefits in terms of promoting a sustainable lifestyle, better control
of energy service flows and resource conservation. These measures would also result in improving livelihood security ( generation of employment through local industries ) and enhance energy security by the overall reduction in energy demand.
The action on Environmental Infrastructure & Municipal Services comprises of creating various infrastructures such as solid waste management facilities and sewage treatment plants.
Apart from direct mitigation benefits, these are important in realizing other co-benefits suchas promotion of 3R and enhancing the quality of life. For example, a modern landfill can also
be a source of fuels in the form of land fill gas ( LFG ) , pellets and fluff, which can be usedin the local industries. Significant improvements can be realized in the public services domain by standardization of consumption and shifting to energy efficient lamps.
23

The action on 3R, targets primarily at reducing the energy intensity of the output from the local
economy. By constructing common facilities at the city level, one can actually reduce, reuse andrecycle many resources and thereby move on to the sustainable style of living. This would give anadded incentive of energy reduction.
The larger framework of Governance comprises of how to govern the city. Local government executes at the interface of the state and the centre and therefore has to plan, implement and coordinate a host of activities. To facilitate a smooth transition to a low carbon city, the local governmentof Ahmedabad would need an effective governance and institutional mechanism. Governanceinitiatives will have an overlapping influence in ensuring sustained sectoral emission reductions.
In the residential and commercial sector, effective governance would comprise of implementing
uniform building codes, ensuring faster penetration of energy labeling programs and greater public awareness about reducing energy consumption. In the transport sector, governance initiatives
should focus on better city planning ( t o reduce congestion, and encourage shorter movements)and standardizing vehicle efficiency norms. And in the industry and power sector, it comprises of
implementing energy efficiency standards and ensuring mandatory fuel switch to cleaner fuels.
In the context of developing nations, Financing plays a key role in any low carbon initiative over
and above the business as usual transition. Thus, the deep emission cuts would involve substantial investments in low-carbon infrastructure. Besides, these infrastructure and technology choices
would also lead to some economic losses ( G DP ) , which would translate into developmental
loss and would have to be compensated through either international investments and technology
transfer. For ensuring a transition to a low carbon society, various financial initiatives would benecessary at the local level. In the building sector, financial incentives are needed for energy efficiency improvements ( a dvance technologies in end use devices ) , and initiatives like green
buildings. In the transport sector, financial support is needed for huge investments in public
transport infrastructure, modern transport technology ( traffic management ) , and incentives topromote efficient vehicles. Industry sector needs to be supported with financial initiatives such as
tax benefits for investments in efficient and low carbon technology equipments. For the power
sector, investments in CCS and renewable energy technologies need to be appropriately supported financially.
Municipal Services from LCS perspective

From the perspective of electricity usage for municipal services, the major forms of energy usage comes from street lighting and electricity for water pumping, treatment and distribution.
From the government estimates, it is found that in the base year of 2005 21.89 ktoe energy
was used in such services. This is projected to increase to 46.97 ktoe in 2035 BAU and 80.77
ktoe in 2050 BAU. This is mainly due to the expansion of the city limits, and therefore more energy used for street lighting and energy for water. There are significant electricity saving opportunities that exist in this sector, chiefly due to energy efficiency measures, automation ofstreet lighting, automation in water plants, and implementing demand side measures for curtailing the water requirements in the domestic and commercial sector.

24Governance & Financing
At the outset, governance structure is a hierarchical web of interactions at various levels.
These interactions, popularly termed as organization structure, help in delineating responsibilities and setting up jurisdictional boundaries.
For e.g., AMC is divided into various zones andeach zone has Deputy Municipal Commissioner with the overall responsibility of the zone.
However many common and overlapping functions are aggregated at the AMC level, like water supply and production. These departments
have to ensure coordination at all levels to facilitate implementation of any initiative. This
becomes an onerous task for a large area, andtherefore manifests itself in various inefficiencies. The local government has thus embarked
upon various initiatives so as to solve this problem. One of the initiative is the Continuous
Monitoring System – to bring more accountability and transparency ( a t all levels of governance ) .
Another aspect in the governance structure is
the form of governing arrangement. AMC hascome up with innovative forms of local governance, like Public-Private Partnership( i mplemented in Solid Waste Management
Projects ) , Special Purpose Vehicle ( like the
BRTS project, and the Sabarmati Riverfront
Development Project ) , among others. These
forms help in managing policy implementation
in a viable and effective framework.
Key function of the local government lies in coordinating, planning and implementing policies.
However with a number of policy initiatives,
and with overlapping governance structures; it
becomes extremely difficult in achieving thedesired results. For example, BRTS ( bus rapid system ) project is implemented via a Special Purpose Vehicle ( S PV ) , a typical project
structure which is run on commercial principles,but local implementation overlaps with jurisdictional responsibilities of various state departments like the traffic police, regional transport

office. These offices come under the control ofthe state government and therefore, it is a challenge for the local authorities to remove themultifarious effects of coordination failure.
On Financing side, the options at the local levelcomprise of innovative mechanisms, like‘ m unicipal bonds ’ and other innovative institutional arrangements. On the institutional
front, for example; the Sabarmati River Front
Project is a Special Purpose Vehicle, aimed atreclaiming land on the sides of the river
Sabarmati. Not only improving the built environment through this initiative of an environmentally initiated infrastructure, this initiative
aims to sell a part of the land claimed back oncommercial basis. This improves the viability ofthe project and ensures speedy pay-back.
Thus in the overall framework of governanceand financing, the set of activities like form, finance and structure; help in connecting withthe framework of sustainability for the LCS society ( from the resources side as well as fromthe consumption side ) . It also looks at the redistribution justice aspect, as people participate
at the lowest levels and concern about thecommon citizen in the policy making process
helps in ensuring equity in the decision making
progress.
Most of the cities in the current context exhibit
voluntary participation in various activities. These voluntary participations predicate upon thevarious sources like information. However mostof the initiatives are achieved through private
channels only and are in isolation. Therefore,
one has to keep in mind that uniform sustainability frameworks can only be implemented
through effective governance structures
backed by policies, laws and regulations. And
therefore, effective governance structures is afundamental aspect in ensuring implementationof various LCS actions.

25Snapshot of solid waste management
As a part of the 3R action, Ahmedabad is already doing a lot of activities pertaining to recycling and managing the waste system effectively. Apart from maintaining an efficient built
environment, it also helps in providing opportunities for recycling some of the treated waste,particularly with regards to waste water.
The local government has taken many initiatives to improve the system of waste management. Among them the primary ones are :mechanized collection and transfer, door-todoor collection, privatization in collection andtransportation, composting of 500 MT solid

Operation
Generation:

waste/day, construction of new sanitary landfill,
palletization and methane recovery. Generationof electricity from waste ( PSP ) is also inplanning stage.
The following table gives a snap shot of the
progress made in the domain of solid waste
management and the issues on which the local government is currently focusing. This isimportant to mention because in the sustainable scenario of LCS, this is a key initiative.

Unit
2100 MT/ day

Issues / Remarks
Approx 500/capita/day

Collection:- % of total98%

Lot of waste is thrown in open dumps- Population covered:100%

No segregation at source.

- Number of sweepers

7358

Transportation- Total vehicles deployed

127

Partially privatized

Storage- Waste storage pits

708

770 Hectares

One landfill site is a non sanitary landfill. Hazard of groundwater contamination from leachate

Largely informal throughrag pickers

Rag pickers are exposed to a number ofhealth hazards.

500

Outsourced to private company. 150
tonnes compost produced in a day

500

Still in planning stage.AMC has tied up
with a private company. AMC will supply these pellets to industries as raw fuelto substitute conventional fuels.

Disposal
Two landfill sites
Recycling

Composting (MT/day)Pelletization (MT/day)

Hazardous Waste

26

Disposed off atSecured facility

Two sites for Common Hazardous Waste
TSDF (Treatment, Stabilization & Disposal Facilities) in the city

Energy and Environment Policies in India
There have been numerous policy initiatives,
legislations and acts enacted and introduced in
the environment and energy domain in India.
These policies, legislations and acts have focused either individually on an environmental
sector like water, air or they have targetedbroadly the entire value chain of the energy
sector. For example, the latest policy document
adopted by the Government of India - the Integrated Energy Policy Roadmap, 2006. This policy road-map has been accepted by the Government of India ( GoI) in 2009, and whichbroadly links energy sector to the goals of Sustainable Development by developing policies
that promote ‘ efficiency ’ and reflect externalities associated with energy consumption.
Further in June, 2008; the Prime Minister ofIndia released India ’ s first National Action
Plan on Climate Change ( NAPCC) outlining
existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation. The
No.

National Mission

plan identifies eight core “ national missions ”
running through 2017 and directed ministries tosubmit detailed implementation plans to thePrime Minister ’ s Council on Climate Change
by December 2008.Emphasizing the importance of high economic growth rates, theplan “ identifies measures that promote ourdevelopment objectives while also yielding cobenefits for addressing climate change effectively. ” It says “ these national measureswould be more successful with assistance fromdeveloped countries ” , and pledges that India ’ s per capita greenhouse gas emissions“ w ill at no point exceed that of developed
countries even as we pursue our development
objectives.”
The eight National Missions and their related
targets are elucidated below in the table. Thesetargets are in line with the mitigation of GHG
emissions across many sectors, and therefore
are important from the perspective of an LCS
study.
Targets

1

National Solar Mission

Specific targets for increasing use of solar thermal technologies
in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments

2

National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001

3

National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

Extending the existing Energy Conservation Building Code; Emphasis on urban waste management and recycling, including
power production from waste (3R)

4

National Water Mission

20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing andother measures

5

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

6

National Mission for a “Green India”

Conservation of biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecologicalvalues in the Himalayan region, where glaciers are projected torecedeExpanding forest cover from 23% to 33%

7

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

Promotion of sustainable agricultural practices

8

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate
Change:The plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund that
supports activities like climate modeling, and increased international collaboration; It also encourage private sector initiatives todevelop adaptation and mitigation technologies

Moreover, there are other specific programs
identified for implementation, within the National Action Plan from the mitigation perspective.
It mandates the retirement of old inefficient coal-fired power plants and supports R&D in making IGCC and super-critical technologies to be

used as power plant technology. It also envisages initiatives like renewable portfolio standard for all states and mandatory energy audits
for energy intensive industries. The plan also
advocates for aggressive implementation of theenergy labeling program.

27

Data Preparation
Building Sector: Following a Top-Down approach, and using current electricity consumption data , per capita electricity usage was projected based on references for other similar
income cities in the world. In order to corroborate the results, a Bottom-Up method, comprising of appliance ownership level was also
used for base year. For the commercial sector,
property tax collection information and commercial property tax rate was used as information base for calculating the commercial
floor space area.
Transport Sector: The methodology of demand
estimation follows the estimation of passenger
demand by the Per Capita Trip Rate ( PCTR )method. Hence, Passenger travel demand =PCTR x Population X Distance x Modal share.
Based on this methodology, passenger travel demand is estimated for the various BAU and CM
scenarios. These demand estimates are represented in the table on the next page.

Further to the identification of qualitative storylines that bind the low carbon measures, it isalso important to identify a large set of technical data and parameter values that are needed to estimate the effect of these measures on
reducing GHG emissions. For example, technological parameters in the base year related
to energy efficiencies are defined with respect
to current efficiency levels, however, for future
estimates, on account of reduced costs andseveral other developments, a higher penetration of better technologies is supposed to betaken. Similarly, for various sectors, there are
specific quantitative parameters that wouldchange, as we transit from the base year towards the intermediate year, and finally the target year of the modeling. Some of the important sectoral quantitative assumptions canbe summarized as under:

Table 4: Appliance penetration in residential & commercial sector

End UseAir conditioners
Refrigerators
Washing Machine
Computers
CFL

CAGR

Diffusion(number per 100 household)

4.06

2005
10

2050
60

2.5

47

70

4.58

8

54

4.06

10

60

5.68

5

60

2050 BAU

End Use2050 LCSReduction
Potential

Penetration

Reduction Potential

Penetration

Lighting

66%

50%

66%

70%

Cooling

20%

40%

25%

50%

Computers

20%

50%

25%

70%

Water Heaters

50%

50%

50%

60%

Refrigerators

20%

50%

25%

60%

28

Table 5: Travel demand in various scenarios
S.no. Scenario

1

Base 2005

Total in Base Year2

BAU-2035

Total in BAU-2035
3

CM-2035

Total in CM-2035
4

BAU-2050

Total in BAU-2050
5

CM-2050

Total in CM-2050

All Modes

Passenger Travel Demand (million km/year)
All Modes

tptw
tpsv
tplv
tpbs
tptr
Bike
Walk
(All Motorized)

25.00%
23.00%
1.60%
14.40%
0.00%
14.00%
22.00%
100.00%3722.643424.82
238.252144.240.00
2084.68
3275.9214890.54

tptw
tpsv
tplv
tpbs
tptr
Bike
Walk
(All Motorized)

24.00%
15.00%
1.10%
15.90%
8.00%
11.00%
25.00%
100.00%12922.19
8076.37592.278560.95
4307.405922.6713460.6253842.46

tptw
tpsv
tplv
tpbs
tptr
Bike
Walk
(All Motorized)

16.00%
9.00%
2.50%
28.50%
8.00%
11.00%
25.00%
100.00%8614.794845.821346.06
15345.10
4307.405922.6713460.6253842.46

tptw
tpsv
tplv
tpbs
tptr
Bike
Walk
(All Motorized)

7.00%
15.00%
3.40%
36.60%
8.00%
8.00%
22.00%
100.00%9756.01
20905.74
4738.6351010.0111149.73
11149.73
30661.75
139371.60

tptw
tpsv
tplv
tpbs
tptr
Bike
Walk
(All Motorized)

2.00%
5.50%
2.85%
31.65%
8.00%
15.00%
35.00%
100.00%2229.95
6132.35
3177.6735288.89
8919.7816724.59
39024.05
111497.28

Mode

Modal Share29

A Procedure to create local LCS scenario
In order to create a local low‐carbon society sce‐

Technical data is required to estimate their eﬀect tonario, we developed a method based on the idea of

reduce GHG emissions. In this research we em‐ʺback castingʺ, which sets a desirable goal first, andployed those assumptions which are in line with athen seek the way to achieve it. Figure 27 showsdeveloping economy and also, considering the fact

overview of the method.

that in 2035 quite a number of advanced technolo‐(1) Setting frameworkgies and systems would penetrate into India, andFramework of an LCS scenario includes; target
area, base year, target year, environmental target,

thus Ahmedabad.
(5)Setting introduction of counter measuresnumber of scenarios. Among them, the base year is

Technological parameters related to energy eﬃ‐

compared with target year. The target year should

ciencies are defined with respect to current eﬃcien‐be far enough to realize required change, and nearcy levels and also, its acceptance. In future esti‐

enough to image the vision for the people in themates, such consideration as more penetration due

region. In this study, we set the target year of Ah‐

to cost decrease is taken into account in specifying

medabad as 2035. This is also a suitable time spanestimates about certain technologies.

for an LCS study for the reasons above and also, in(6)Estimation of GHG emission in the target year

line with the explanation given earlier (p 8). As an

Based on socio‐economic indices and assump‐environmental target, we targeted CO2 from energy

tion of measuresʹ introduction, GHG emissions areuse because it will be a main source of GHG emis‐

calculated.

sions from Ahmedabad in 2035.

(7)Proposal of policies(2)Assumptions of socio‐economic situations

Propose policy set to introduce the measures

Before conducting quantitative estimation, qual‐

defined. Available policies depend on the local situ‐

itative future image should be written. It is an im‐ation of Ahmedabad. ExSS can calculate emission

age of lifestyle, economy and industry, land use

reduction of each counter measure.

and so on. For this, we made assumptions about

Therefore, it can show reduction potential of

the future in Ahmedabad on various dimensions;

measures which especially needs local policy. It cansuch as economy, population, land use, etc. Thesealso identify measures which have high reduction

assumptions were either based on the city CDP, or

potential and therefore important.

other government estimates about socio‐economic
conditions.
(3)Quantification of socio‐economic assumptions

Figure 23. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario

To estimate Snapshot based on future image of(2), values of exogenous variables and parameters(1) Setting Framework

are set. Using those input, ExSS calculates socio‐
economic indices of the target year such as GDP,

(2) Description of socio‐
economic assumptions(4) Collection of low carbon
measures(3) Quantification of socio‐
economic assumptions(5) Setting introduction of
measures in target year

output by industry, transport demand, and so on.
(4)Collection of low‐carbon measures
To collect counter measures which are thought
to be available in the target year. For example, highenergy‐eﬃciency

devices,transport

structurechange such as public transport, use of renewableenergy, energy saving behavior and carbon sink.

30(6) Estimation of GHG
emissions in the target year

(7) Confirming measures set andsuggestion of policy recommendations

“Extended Snapshot Tool”
Figure 28 shows the structure of the Extended

line with the theory of regional economics.

Snapshot Tool (ExSS); seven blocks with input pa‐

Industries producing export goods are called

rameters, exogenous variables and variables be‐ʺbasic industryʺ. Production of basic industries in‐tween modules. ExSS is a system of simultaneous

duces other industries i.e. non‐basic industries,

equations. Given a set of exogenous variables andthrough demand of intermediate input and con‐parameters, solution is uniquely defined. In thissumption of their employees. Number of workers

simulation model, only CO2 emission from energy

must fulfill labor demand of those productions.

consumption is calculated, even though, ESS can beused to estimate other GHG and environmentalloads such as air quality. In many LCS scenarios,
exogenously fixed population data are used. How‐ever, people migrate more easily, when the target
region is relatively a smaller area such as a state,
district, city or town. Population is decided by de‐mand from outside of the region, labor participa‐tion ratio, demographic composition and relation‐
ship of commuting with outside of the region. To
determine output of industries, input‐output ap‐
proach with “export‐base approach” is combined in•Export•Government expenditure•Import ratio •Labor productivity

Macro‐economy andIndustry Module

labor participation ratio, population living in theregion is computed. This model enables us to con‐sider viewpoints of regional economic development
to estimate energy demand and CO2 emissions. For
future estimation, assumption of export value isespecially important if the target region is thoughtto (or, desired to) develop led by particular indus‐
try.
Passenger transport demand is estimated fromthe population and freight transport demand is afunction of output by industries. Floor area of com‐
merce is determined as the driving force for com‐

•Commuting OD

Labor ModuleLabordemandWage

Averageworking time

Privateconsumption

OutputGiven assumptions of where those workers live andNumber ofworkers

IncomeTime‐use andConsumption Module•Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family
occupants

Population and Household
Number Module
Population
Number ofhousehold•Breakdown ofconsumption•Population distribution•Floor area per
outputFloor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Transport
ModuleCommercial
Building Module

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG
Emissions Module•Energy service demand generation unit
•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor•Trip per parson•Transport distance•Modal share

Module

GHG emissions

Main endogenous
variables

Exogenous variables
and parameters

Flow of endogenous variables

Input

Figure 24. Overview of calculation system of Extended Snapshot Tool

31

2005

Passenger Transport Demand

108Energy Demand

6
4

GHG Emissions

2
0

2050
LCS

2050
BaU

Japanese partner institute Logo
< To be added by the Japanese team)

A Road Map towards Low Carbon Ahmedabad 2050
October 2010
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Prof. P. R . Shukla
Prof. Prem Pangotra
Prasoon Agarwal
Amir Bashir Bazaz
Minal Pathak
Somesh Sharma
Nidhi Agarwal
Japanese Team Member Names< To be added by the Japanese team>