Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

ThailandNovember, 2010

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University
Asian Institute of Technology
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Kyoto University
Mizuho Information & Research InstituteAsia-Pacific Integrated ModelThailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Preface
The Thailand’s low carbon society (LCS) scenario is one of the joint researchoutcomes of support and collaboration among Sirindhorn International Institute ofTechnology (SIIT) Thammasat University Thailand, Asian Institute of Technology, theNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan, Kyoto University, and Mizuho
Information and Research Institute Japan.
This revised LCS scenario report includes energy efficiency improvement andalternative energy development for CO2 mitigation options in the demand and supply sides aswell as renewable electricity generation in the power sector.
We are grateful to thank Thailand Greenhouse gas management Organization forcomments. We also would like to thank Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka and his research team for theguidance in LCS modeling. We acknowledge the support by National Institute forEnvironmental Studies for the access to the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) andDatabase.
This LCS scenario report is aimed at communication among policy makers,
administrators, academic researchers, and the public on climate change response. The
research findings hope to contribute to sustainable energy and environmental transition ofThailand, one of the fast growing economies in Southeast Asia, towards a Thai low carbon
society.

Bundit Limmeechokchai

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
Thammasat University
November, 2010

Table of Contents
Executive Summary

2

About Thailand

4

Background of LCS

6

Socio-Economic Scenario in 2030

8

GHG emissions in 2030

10

GHG Mitigation Options

14

Actions to Thailand’s LCS 2030

24

Methodology

30Collection and Estimation of Information

32

1

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Executive summary
This report aims to discuss the possibility ofdeveloping a Thailand’s low-carbon society.
The methodology involves i) development of
current GHG emissions inventory, and ii)
quantification of socio-economic activity
level in 2030 according to available
information from Thailand’s office of thenational economic and social development
board.

2) Under the scenario without mitigation
measures (that is,
the 2030 BAU
scenario), the GHG emissions would
increase to 563,730 kt-CO2, that is, 3.0
times higher than the emission in thebase year 2005.
3) By adopting the selected feasible GHG
mitigation measures available by 2030,
the GHG emissions can be decreased
approximately by 42.5% to 324,170 ktCO2 (see Figure 1).

According to the proposed development, theamount of GHG emission increase isestimated based on (i) 2030 BAU (businessas-usual) without mitigation measures, and(ii) 2030 with counter mitigation measures(CM) assumptions of employed technologies
as well as the potential to reduce the GHG
emissions by low-carbon measures available
during 2005-2030. Only selected GHG
mitigation options, which have been found to
be cost effective, are included in the 2030
CM scenario. The main findings are as
follows:
1) The annual greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions of Thailand in the base yearof 2005 are 185,983 kilo-ton (kt) of
CO2.

In 2005, the per capita emission of Thailand
was about 3.1 t-CO2/year. In 2030, it isestimated to increase to 8.2 t-CO2/year, and
4.7 t-CO2/year without and with countermeasures, respectively.
In order to mitigate the emission to a lower
level, several comprehensive measures suchas diffusion of low-carbon technologies in
the residential sector, energy efficientbuildings, energy efficient industry and fuelswitching, and fuel substitution in thetransport sector and electricity generation
sector are needed.

Power generation: 91,615 kt-CO2
500,000
EEItransport:(Power 23,118 kt-CO2
Freight
generation)
EEI (Freight transport)
Passenger transport: 15,159 kt-CO2
EEI (Passenger
transport)
Industry:
79,984 kt-CO2
EEI (Industry)

400,000
300,000

563,730

Commercial:
18,734 kt-CO2
EEI (Commercial)

200,000
324,170
100,000

Residential: 10,950 kt-CO2

185,983
GHG emissions

02005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

Figure 1: GHG emissions and mitigation by low-carbon technologies

2

Emission reduction potential

GHG emissions / reductions (kt-CO2)

600,000

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

However, a comprehensive policy toaccomplish the implementation of the GHG
mitigation measures is also required. Figure
2 shows recommended policies and related
GHG mitigation options in the residential,commercial, industrial, transport, and power
generation sectors. If those policies areplanned from the early stage, Thailand will
be able to develop not only as a premier
growth center but also serve as a model for
LCS.

In addition, the higher mitigation target
could be achieved by a combination of
initiatives on both supply and demand sides,
thereby widening the technology use. On the
supply side, renewable energy technologies
and renewable power generation would playa crucial role, while on the demand side,
energy efficient devices and fuel switching
could play a key role.

Table 1: Estimated socio-economic indicators in 2030
2005
2030
Population (persons)
60,991,000
68,815,004
No. of households
19,016,784
36,265,390
GDP (million Baht)
8,016,595
30,802,306
GDP per capita (Baht/capita)
131,439447,610Gross output (million Baht)
18,755,884
68,456,651
Floor space for commercial (million m2)
88
394
Passenger transport demand (million p-km)
191,520
216,088
Freight transport demand (million t-km)
188,524
589,859

Residential and Commercial

2030/2005
1.1
1.9
3.8
3.4
3.7
4.5
1.1
3.1

Electricity Generation
Subsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment

Building insulation

Promotion of technology transfer

Energy Efficiency labeling

Promotion of renewable energy

Green purchasing policy

Fuel switching

Energy performance standard of equipment andevaluation of buildings

Reduce own usage and transmission loss

Transportation

Industry

Environmental performance standard of vehicles
Tax rate adjustment to energy efficient vehicles

Subsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment

Promotion of natural gas and hybrid cars

Promotion of technology transfer

Promotion of renewable energy

Promotion of alternative and renewable energy

Promotion of mass transit system

Figure 2: Policy package for Thailand’s low-carbon society

3Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

About Thailand
BackgroundArea- Total 513,115 km2 (50th of the world) or 198,115 sq mile
- Water (0.4 % or 2,230 km2)
Population- 2010 estimate 63,723,953 (21st)- 2000 census 60,606,947- Density 132.1/km2 (85th) or 342/sq mile
GDP (PPP) 2008 estimate- Total $547.060 billion (24th)- Per capita $8,239 (86th)
GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate- Total $273.313 billion (33rd)- Per capita $4,116 (92nd)
Exchange rate in 2009: 1 US$ = 35 Baht.
Figure 3: Thailand and nearby regions
total area (slightly smaller than Yemen andslightly larger than Spain), with a surface
area of approximately 513,000 km2 (198,000
sq mi), and the 21st most-populous country,with approximately 64 million people. About
75% of the population is ethnically Thai,
14% is of Chinese origin, and 3% is
ethnically Malay.

Geography
Thailand lies in the heart of Southeast Asia.
Its shape and geography are divided into four
natural regions: the mountains and forests of
the North; the vast rice fields of the Central
Plains; the semi-arid farmlands of theNortheast plateau; and the tropical islands
and long coastline of the peninsular South. It
is bordered to the north by Burma and Laos,to the east by Laos and Cambodia, to thesouth by the Gulf of Thailand and Malaysia,
and to the west by the Andaman Sea and thesouthern extremity of Burma. Its maritime
boundaries include Vietnam in the Gulf ofThailand to the southeast, and Indonesia andIndia in the Andaman Sea to the southwest(see Figure 3).

EconomyThailand is an emerging economy andconsidered as a newly industrialized country.
The economy of Thailand is exportdependent with exports accounting for 60%
of GDP. For a nominal GDP at market rates
of approximately US$ 273 billion, Thailand
is the 2nd largest economy in Southeast Asia,
after Indonesia, a position it has held formany years. After enjoying the world's
highest growth rate from 1985 to 1996 –averaging 9.4% annually– increased pressureon Thailand's currency, the Baht, in 1997,
the year in which the economy contracted by
1.9%, led to a crisis that undermined thefinancial sector.

The country comprises 76 provinces that are
further divided into districts, sub-districts
and villages. The largest city in Thailand is
Bangkok, the capital, which is also thecountry's center of political, commercial,industrial and cultural activities. Thailand is
the world's 50th largest country in terms of4

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Thailand's economy started to recover in
1999, expanding 4.2%, and 4.4% in 2000,
thanks largely to strong exports. Growth(2.2%) was dampened by the softening of the
global economy in 2001. Thailand’s
substantial industries include electric
appliances, components, computer parts andcars.

get around 1,400 millimeters per year.

Thai Society and Religion
The national religion is Theravada
Buddhism, a branch of Hinayana Buddhism,
practiced by more than 90% of all Thais. The
remainder adheres to Islam, Christianity,
Hinduism and other faiths, all of which areallowed full freedom. Buddhism continues tocast strong influence on daily life. Thus, intowns and villages, the temple is at the heartof social and religious life. Meditation is oneof the most popular aspects of Buddhism andis practiced regularly for inner peace andhappiness.

WeatherThailand weather is described as tropical andhumid for the majority of the country during
most of the year. The area of the north has a
climate determined by three seasons whilesouthern Thailand has only two.
In northern Thailand the seasons are clearly
defined. Between November and May theweather is mostly dry. In the period from
November to February it has lower ambient
temperature and relative humidity. In the
period from March to May, it has higher
ambient temperature and relative humidity.
The northeast monsoon does not directly
affect the northern area of Thailand. The
other northern season is from May to
November and is dominated by the southwest monsoon.

Energy Situation in Thailand
In 2008, the total energy demand of Thailand
amounted to 66,284 ktoe, which rose 2.2%
from the previous year, while the Thai
economy expanded by 2.6%. Modern orcommercial energy shared 54,023 ktoe or
81.5% of the total energy demand, whereas
traditional renewable energy was consumed
at 12,261 ktoe or 18.5%. The total energy
supply was 110,074 ktoe, and rose 0.01%
from 2007, with the net import of 48,144
ktoe, i.e., 43.7% of the total energy supply,
while the domestic production was 61,930
ktoe (i.e., 56.3%).

The southern region of Thailand really has
only two seasons - the wet and the dry.
These seasons do not run at the same time on
both the east and west side of the peninsula.
On the west coast the southwest monsoon
brings rain and often heavy storms from
April to October, while on the east coast themost rain falls between September andDecember. The southern parts of Thailand
get rain with around 2,400 millimeters ofrain per year, compared with the central andnorthern regions of Thailand, both of which

In 2008, biofuel production comprises
ethanol blended with gasoline (gasohol E10
octane number 91 & 95), and biodiesel
blended with diesel (high-speed diesel B2 &B5 and palm diesel) which totaled 582 ktoe.
The ethanol exported was 34 ktoe with a
total value of 669 million Baht.

5

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Background of LCS
What is a “Low-Carbon Society”?
A low-carbon society (LCS) or low-fossilfuel economy is a concept that refers to an
economy which has a minimal output ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (inparticular, carbon dioxide) into thebiosphere. The over-concentration of thesegases is producing global warming, which
affects climate in the long term, withnegative impacts on humanity in theforeseeable future. In a LCS, the society will
adopt a lifestyle that makes more use ofenergy efficient devices and renewableenergy technologies. Therefore a globally
implemented LCS is proposed as a means to
avoid catastrophic climate change, and as aprecursor to the more advanced, zero-carbon
society and renewable-energy economy.

behavior that are consistent with low
GHG emissions.
However, the LCS concept for developing
countries would be different from that for thedeveloped countries such as Thailand,
having lower per capita emissions and low
emissions per GDP. Nevertheless, the LCS
study would provide opportunities for
Thailand to decide the future energy system,
related infrastructure, and lifestyle related
choices.
Today Thailand faces challenges in energyenvironment-economic development withlimited resources availability, minimal
externalities, and global climate change. Oneof the approaches to overcome thisdevelopment paradox is through adoption ofa sustainable development paradigm.
Energy-environment modeling results for
Thailand show substantially increasingsystem cost to meet the GHG reduction
targets. This higher cost would result in GDP
loss that could be compensated throughinternational transactions and mechanisms
such as the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM).

The policy research and activities of an LCS
in developed countries should have thefollowing attributes:i) Take actions that are compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development,
ensuring that the development needs ofall groups within the society are met.
ii) Make an equitable contribution towards
the global effort to stabilize theatmospheric concentration of CO2 andother GHG such as CH4 at a level thatwill avoid dangerous climate change,
through deep cuts in global emissions.
iii) Demonstrate a high level of energy
efficiency and use low-carbon energy
sources and production technologies.
iv) Adopt patterns of consumption and

Therefore, the LCS framework should also
look at opportunities of co-benefits apartfrom direct GHG reduction. Such cobenefits, like improved local air quality in
Thailand, provide an opportunity tominimize social costs.

Principles for a low-carbon society
Under the initiatives of the Japan-UK lowcarbon society movement, it is emphasizedthat the world needs to cooperate to makeconcerned efforts to establish a low-carbon
society by “reducing global emissions byhalf from the current level by 2050”. Under

the principle of common but differentiatedresponsibility, developed nations will takethe lead on climate change mitigation anddeveloping countries will adopt thenecessary technologies and expertise to
reduce the inefficient and carbon intensive
6

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

development path of the past.

in which value is placed on family orcommunity ties, health, interactions, and the“Mottainai” spirit to improve the quality oflife. This type of consumer choice would
lead to a revolution in the social system,
moving toward a low-carbon and richsociety, and the “Self-sufficiency economy”
in Thailand.

All countries, organizations, and entities
have to take action based on the following
philosophies:
1) Carbon minimization in all sectors“A low-carbon society” in the ultimate
sense would be a society that emits
greenhouse gases only in an amount which
can be absorbed by nature (carbon neutral
society). To achieve this goal, we have tohave a social system where all sectors,
such as industries, governments, andcitizens, will naturally or automatically give
special consideration to their selection anddecisions in order to minimize carbondioxide emissions.

3) Coexistence with nature
We recognize humans and their society as apart of the global ecosystem. In order tosecure the CO2 absorption essential for a
low-carbon society and to adapt to the
avoidable global warming, it is important tomaintain and restore rich, diverse naturalenvironments, such as forests. To achieve
this symbiosis, local communities should
place importance on harmony andcoexistence with nature, and promote“nature-friendly technologies” such asutilization of renewable energy.

2) Toward simpler life styles that realizericher quality of life
People would need to forgo the massconsumption society, mainly formed bydeveloped countries, and build a new society

Objectives of this study
The objectives of this study are:a) To prepare a summary of a quantitative
scenario study on the establishment of asustainable LCS in Thailand.
b) To create awareness among Thailand’s
authorities, government, stakeholders and thecommunities for urgent and decisive actions
to be taken to realize a robust growth andlow‐carbon Thailand.

7

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Socio-Economic Scenario in 2030
Estimated Socio-Economic Indicators of Thailand
In energy demand modeling and GHG emissions in Thailand in 2030, several quantitative
assumptions were made (see Table 2).
Table 2: Quantitative assumptions of socio-economic indicators’ change during 2005 to 2030
Average population growth
Demographic composition

0.5% p.a. increase (2005-2030)
0-14: 21.0%, 15-64: 71.3%, 65+: 7.7%

GDP increase by industry

Primary industry: approximately 3.9% p.a. increase
Secondary industry: approximately 5.1% p.a. increase
Tertiary industry: approximately 6.4% p.a. increase

Exports
Private consumption
Government consumption

3.2% p.a. increase
8.4% p.a. increase
3.2% p.a. increase

Modal share of passenger
transport[Railway] 12%, [Buses] 20%, [Motorcars] 20%, [Motorcycles] 10%,
[Walking] 25%, [Bicycles] 12.8%, [Air] 0.2%

Scenario Description
The future socio-economic indicators in
2030 in Thailand are estimated by using amacroeconomic model. The following is theestimated results of the economy,
establishments, and transportation.

output by industry.
Establishments: The number of households
in Thailand will increase from 60.9 million(2005) to 68.8 million (2030), and theaverage household size in Thailand will
decrease from 3.2 (2005) to 1.9 (2030). The
total floor space of commercial buildings in
Thailand will increase from 88 million
square meters (2005) to 394 million square
meters (2030).

Economy: Modelling results based on a
Thailand’s macroeconomic model show thatgross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 is
expected to be approximately 30,802,306
million Baht (3.8 times the performance in2005). An input-output analysis based on
final demands in the macro economy is used
to estimate the future industrial structure in
Thailand. Results show that the share of the
primary industry will decrease from 6.0%
(2005) to 4.1% (2030). In addition, the shareof the secondary industry will decrease from
61.1% (2005) to 55.5% (2030). However, theshare of the tertiary industry will increase
from 33.0% in 2005 to 40.4% in 2030 (seeTable 3). Figure 4 shows the composition ofTransportation:
Passenger
transport
demand in Thailand will slightly increase
from 191,520 million passenger-kilometers(2005) to 216,088 million passengerkilometers (2030). Freight transport demandin Thailand will increase from 188,524
million tonne-kilometers in 2005 to 589,859
million tonne-kilometers in 2030 (see Table
3).

8

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Table 3: Estimated socio-economic indicators in 2030
2005

2030

2030/2005

Population

60,991,000

68,815,004

1.1

No. of households

19,016,784

36,265,390

1.9

GDP (million Baht)

8,016,595

30,802,306

3.8

GDP per capita (Baht/capita)

131,439447,610

3.4

Gross output (million Baht)

18,755,884

68,456,651

3.7

Primary industry (million Baht)

1,116,621

2,801,864

2.5

Secondary industry (million Baht)

11,453,496

38,008,931

3.3

Tertiary industry (million Baht)

6,185,767

27,645,856

4.5

88

394

4.5

Passenger transport demand (million p-km)

191,520

216,088*

1.1

Freight transport demand (million t-km)

188,524

589,859*

3.1

Floor space for commercial (million m2)

In the 2030 BAU scenario.

80,00070,00060,000

Output (bil. Baht)*

50,000Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Construction
TextilesFood and Beverage
Chemicals
Other industries
Metallic & Machinery
Nonmetallic
Services

68,45727,64640,0001,991
12,68630,0007,000
18,75620,000

6,151

6,186
3,565

10,000

0

804
309

1,861
1,117

653

572
2,164
1,526

2005

2,407
4,355
2,380
1,039
2,802

2030

Figure 4: Outputs by industry in 2005 and 2030

9

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

GHG emissions in 2030
Energy Demand and GHG EmissionsA
macro-economic model is used toestimate future energy demand and GHG
emissions for the year 2030 based on the
scenario quantification. The estimated resultson energy demand and GHG emissions arepresented in Figures 5 to 8 and Table 4.

2005, and the demand for natural gas will
increase by 3.5 times. Use of biomass, solar,
wind, and hydro energy in the primaryenergy in 2030 countermeasure (CM)scenario would together be 40,580 ktoe,
accounting for 26.1% of the total primaryenergy supply.

In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario,
final energy demand would increase from57,327 ktoe in 2005 to 164,863 ktoe in 2030.
Final energy demand of the industrial sector
is estimated to be 81,189 ktoe and would
maintain the largest share of 49.3%,
followed by the transport sector (42,918
ktoe; 26.0%), and the residential andcommercial sectors (40,756; 24.7%) in 2030
(see Figure 5).

Based on primary energy demand by energy
sources, total GHG emissions in the BAU
scenario are projected to increase from
185,983 kt-CO2 in 2005 to 563,730 kt-CO2
in 2030. The modeling results also show that
GHG emissions from the industry sector willbe 276,045 kt-CO2 in 2030 accounting for49.0% of total CO2 emissions in 2030. In
2030, GHG emissions from passenger andfreight transport are also found to be about
2.3 times the amount in 2005, and their share
would be 23.1% of total GHG emissions (seeFigure 7). In the BAU scenario, GHG
emissions per capita would increase from 3.1
t-CO2 per capita in 2005 to 8.2 t-CO2 percapita in 2030 (see Figure 8).

In the BAU scenario, primary energy
demand in Thailand is projected to increase
from 74,845 ktoe in 2005 to 226,165 ktoe in
2030 (see Figure 6). There will be a total of
76,142 ktoe of petroleum and 73,644 ktoe ofnatural gas consumed in 2030 in the BAU
scenario. In 2030, the demand for coal would
increase by 3.5 times when compared to
Residential

Commercial

Industry

Passenger transport

Freight transport

180,000
Energy demand (ktoe)

160,000
34,402140,000

8,516

120,000

28,857100,000

3,979
81,18980,00060,00040,00020,000064,621
11,0007,548

14,77125,753
9,721

3,305

2005

25,986

11,391
20,1212030 BAU

2030 CM

Figure 5: Final energy demand by economic sector
10Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Primary Energy demand (ktoe)

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000020052030 BAU

2030 CM

Coal

11,60840,201

27,504

Petroleum

29,677

76,142

48,917Natural gas

21,19073,64428,316

Hydro

515

1,802

6,627

Nuclear

-

-

3,618

Solar & wind

2

7

1,922

11,85334,36938,658Biomass

Figure 6: Primary energy demand by energy sources

Residential

Commercial

Industry

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

600,000

Passenger transport

Freight transport

563,730
104,581500,000

25,875400,000

324,170
300,000
200,000
100,000
0

276,045

81,454
10,423

185,983
33,441
22,933

153,554
101,391

86,034
22,686

20,8892005

55,83847,76130,9792030 BAU

2030 CM

Figure 7: GHG emissions by sector

11Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

9.00

8.2

8.00

tCO2/capita

7.00
6.00
4.7

5.00
4.00
3.00

3.1

2.00
1.00
0.00
2005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

Figure 8: Per capita GHG emissions
Table 4: Final energy demand by sector (unit: ktoe)
Coal
Petroleum
Natural gas
Biomass
Solar & Wind
Electricity
Total
2005
Residential
1,897
5,621
2,203
9,721
Commercial
3,305
3,305
Industry
6,755
7,233
1,520
5,332
4,913
25,753Passenger transport
7,499
44
5
7,548
Freight transport
10,9991
0
11,000Total
6,755
27,628
1,565
10,953
10,42657,327
Share
11.8%
48.2%
2.7%
19.1%
0%
18.2%
100.0%
2030 BAU Scenario
Residential
5,071
15,026
5,889
25,986
Commercial
14,771
14,771
Industry
23,21721,043
4,917
16,193
15,81881,189Passenger transport
8,461
49
5
8,516
Freight transport
34,3974
134,402
Total
23,217
68,972
4,971
31,21936,484
164,863
Share
14.1%
41.8%
3.0%
18.9%
0%
22.1%
100.0%
2030 CM Scenario
Residential
3,940
11,6494,532
20,121
Commercial
11,391
11,391
Industry
9,353
13,5375,512
22,506
13,71264,621
Passenger transport
3,128
191
549
111
3,979
Freight transport
26,697117
2,038
528,857
Total
9,353
47,301
5,820
36,74329,751
128,968
Share
7.3%
36.7%
4.5%
28.5%
0%
23.1%
100.0%
Note: The 2030 BAU scenario is a modeling result without any additional measures to improve energy efficiency
or CO2 intensity. In 2030 CM scenario, higher energy efficiency and fuel substitution of less CO 2 intensive
fuel is assumed. Details of energy demand and supply tables are shown in Tables 15-17.

12

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

CO2 Mitigation Potential in 2030
In 2030, the model results estimate that total
GHG emissions in Thailand is to be reduced
from 563,730 kt-CO2 in the BAU scenario to324,170 kt-CO2 in the countermeasure (CM)scenario (i.e., a reduction of 42.5% of total
CO2 emission) through the adoption ofcountermeasures for mitigating GHG
emissions. (see Figure 9). Based on themodel simulation, the reductions in GHG
emissions by types of countermeasures arecontributed by comprehensive measures.

transport
sector
(9.6%),
efficiency
improvement in the commercial sector(7.8%), efficiency improvement in thepassenger transport sector (6.3%), andefficiency improvement in the residential
sector (4.6%).

In the 2030 CM scenario, among themeasures, energy efficiency improvement in
power generation sector accounts for thelargest proportion of 38.2% of the total CO2
reductions,followedbyefficiency
improvement in the industrial sector (33.4%),
efficiency improvement in the freight

Among the categories of countermeasures, it
is desirable to take effective measures in theindustrial sector, the commercial sector, andthe transport sector, and help with thepenetration of renewable energy. In order torealize a low-carbon society, Thailand needs
to have new set of strong policies toencourage
andpromotethese
countermeasures.

Power generation: 91,615 kt-CO2
500,000
EEItransport:(Power 23,118 kt-CO2
Freight
generation)
EEI (Freight transport)
Passenger transport: 15,159 kt-CO2
EEI (Passenger
transport)
Industry:
79,984 kt-CO2
EEI (Industry)

400,000
300,000

563,730

Commercial:
18,734 kt-CO2
EEI (Commercial)

200,000
324,170
100,000

Residential: 10,950 kt-CO2

185,983
GHG emissions

02005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

Figure 9: Breakdown of CO2 emissions reduction potential

13

Emission reduction potential

GHG emissions / reductions (kt-CO2)

600,000

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

GHG Mitigation Options
Residential Sector
No. of Households (Millions)

The forecasted population of Thailand in
2030 is 68.8 million. Energy demand in theresidential sector is determined based on
GDP, number of households and population.
In 2005, the average household size was 3.2(3.2 members per household), and it isforecasted to be only 1.9 in 2030. The
number of households will increase from 19
million in 2005 to 36 million in 2030 (seeFigure 10). In the BAU scenario, energy
consumption in households would increase
to 25,986 ktoe and GHG emissions increase
to 55,838 kt-CO2, 2.7 times greater than2005, respectively (see Figure 11). The GHG
emissions in the CM scenario is estimated to
be 44.5% lower than that in the BAU
scenario. There would be a GHG mitigation
30,979 kt-CO2 in the residential sector ,mainly with efficiency improvement ofelectric devices and efficiency improvementin the electricity generation sector (seeFigure 12).

40
30
20

36
19

10
0

2005

2030

Figure 10: Number of households
Value in 2005 = 1

3.0
2.5
2.0

2005

1.5

2030 BAU

1.0

2030 CM0.5
0.0
No. ofhouseholdEnergydemandGHGemissionsFigure 11: Change from base year in theresidential sector
Demand side
Efficiency improvement(electrical appliances)
9,330 kt-CO2 (37.5%)

Supply side
Improvement in power sector
13,909 kt-CO2 (56.0%)

Demand side
Efficiency improvement(non electrical appliances)
1,620 kt-CO2 (6.5%)

Figure 12: Breakdown of GHG mitigation by means of demand side and supply side14

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Commercial Sector
Energy demand in the commercial sector isestimated based on the floor space of thebuildings. Driven by the growth of tertiaryindustry, in 2030, it will increase to 4.5 times
greater than 2005 (see Figure 14). In the
BAU scenario, energy consumption in this
sector would increase to 14,771 ktoe and
GHG emissions would increase to 101,391
kt-CO2, i.e., 4.5 times greater than that in2005, respectively (see Figure 14). The
emissions in this sector under the CM
scenario, would be 53,630 kt-CO2 or 52.9%
lower than that in the BAU scenario. The
mitigation measures identified in this sector
are efficiency improvements in electric
devices, building insulation, and the power
sector (see Figure 15).

400
Value in 2005 = 1

350
Million m2

300
250

394

200
150
100
50

88

0
2005

5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2005
2030 BAU
2030 CM

Floor
space

2030

Figure 13: Floor space of commercial sector

EnergyGHG
demand emissions

Figure 14: Changes from the base year in
the commercial sector
Demand side
Efficiency improvement(electrical appliances)
16,384 kt-CO2 (30.5%)

Supply side
Improvement in power sector
34,896 kt-CO2 (65.1%)

Demand side
Building insulation
2,350 kt-CO2 (4.4%)

Figure 15: Breakdown of GHG mitigation by means of demand side and supply side15

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Policy for Promotion of Mitigation Measures in the Residential andCommercial Sectors
In order to promote GHG mitigation
measures in the residential and commercial
sectors, it would require policies related tobuilding design, building codes, energy
efficient equipment and use of renewableenergy. Figure 16 shows key policies; i.e.,energy performance standard of buildings,
building insulation, building codes, energy
efficiency labeling of electric devices, andgreen purchasing policy of the government.
The demand-side management (DSM)

programs of the Ministry of Energy,
Thailand could play an important role inenergy efficiency labeling, and funding
companies need to adopt corporate social
responsibilities
inenergyefficiency
improvement and promotion of the use ofrenewable energy. In addition, the moreadvanced DSM activities in Thailand would
also contribute larger energy saving andmore GHG reduction.

Mitigation of GHG emissions from the residential and commercial sectors

Energy efficiency improvement

Energy efficiency improvement ofelectrical & non electrical equipment

Energy efficiency buildings

Energy performance standard ofequipment

Building insulation
Energy performance standard andevaluation of buildings

Energy Efficiency labelingGreen purchasing policy

Figure 16: Mitigation measures and policies for buildings (residential & commercial)

16Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Industry

45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-

GHG emissions would increase to 3.2 times
and 3.2 times from the base year 2005,
respectively (see Figure 18). In the 2030 CM
scenario, energy efficiency improvement andfuel shifting in this sector could reduce GHG
emissions by 122,492 kt-CO2 accounting for44.4% of CO2 reduction in industry (seeFigure 19).

Value in 2005 = 1

Output (billion Baht)

In this report, “industry sector” as an energy
consuming sector includes both primary andsecondary industries. Assuming average
GDP increase of 5.5% per year, output ofsuch industries will increase to 40,810,794
million Baht in 2030, i.e., 3.3 times morethan in 2005 (see Figure 17). Without anyenergy efficiency improvement, i.e., underthe 2030 BAU scenario, energy demand and40,811

12,570

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2005
2030 BAU
2030 CM

Industry
2005

2030

Figure 17: Industrial output

Supply side
Improvement in power sector
42,508 kt-CO2 (34.7%)

EnergydemandGHGemissionsFigure 18: Changes from the base year
in the industrial sector
Demand side
Efficiency improvement(electrical equipment)
12,380 kt-CO2 (10.1%)
Demand side
Efficiency improvement(non electrical equipment)
26,268 kt-CO2 (21.4%)

Demand side
Fuel switching
41,336 kt-CO2 (33.8%)

Figure 19: Breakdown of GHG mitigation by means of demand side and supply side17

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Policy on Promotion of Mitigation Measures in the Industrial Sector
The measures for emissions mitigation inthis sector include promotion of energy
efficiency improvement in both electricaland non electrical equipments as well as
alternative and renewable energy. To
promote mitigation measures in this sector,
incentives to invest in energy efficiency

improvement is very important. Policies ontaxes, subsidies and low interest loans would
play key roles in this sector. Promotion ofadvanced technologies from abroad is also
considered effective (see Figure 20).

Mitigation of GHG emissions from primary and secondary industries

Energy efficiency improvement

Energy efficiency
improvement ofelectrical equipment

Lowering CO2 intensity

Energy efficiency
improvement of nonelectrical equipment

Alternative and renewableenergySubsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment
Promotion of technology transfer
Promotion of Alternative and renewable energy

Figure 20: Mitigation measures and policies for industries

18Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Transport (Passenger)
In the passenger transport sector, thetransport demand is estimated to increase
from 191,520 million passenger-km in 2005
to 216,088 million passenger-km in 2030,
i.e., it would be 1.1 times greater than 2005
due to population growth (see Figures 21 and
22). This results in an increase in energy
demand in passenger transport from 7,548
ktoe in 2005 to 8,516 ktoe in 2030.
Currently, small vehicles and motorcycles
are the main mode of mobility in Thailand. If
Motorcycle
Small vehicle
Railway2005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

EnergydemandGHGemissions

1.2

250,000
Million passenger-km

Walk
Large vehicle

21
2,656
17,811200,000

19
2,354 15,786

150,000

48,608100,000

29,98650,00081,21591,634-826 12,725

932 14,357

45,817
7,179
25,0642005

2030 BAU

2030CM

54,843
33,833

Value in 2005 = 1

Air
BicycleBusmodal share does not change, GHG
emissions from passenger transportation will
increase from 22,933 to 25,875 kt-CO2 in the2030 BAU scenario. However in the
countermeasure (CM) scenario, energy
efficiency improvement, travel demand
management, modal shift, and fuelsubstitution could mitigate GHG emissions
at around 15,452 kt-CO2, accounting for59.7% of CO2 reduction (see Figure 23).

21
22,56329,87627,422
16,916

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Passenger
transport

Figure 21: Passenger transport demand

Demand side
Fuel switching
2,921 kt-CO2 (18.9%)

1.0

Figure 22: Changes from the base year in
the passenger transport sector
Supply side
Improvement in power sector
293 kt-CO2 (1.9%)
Demand side
Efficiency improvement
4,151 kt-CO2 (26.9%)

Demand side
Modal shift
8,087 kt-CO2 (52.3%)

Figure 23: Breakdown of GHG mitigation by means of demand side and supply side19Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Transport (Freight)
In the freight transport sector, due to thegrowth of the manufacturing sector output,
freight transport demand is estimated toincrease from 188,524 million tonne-km in2005 to 589,859 million tonne-km in 2030
(see Figure 24), resulting in an increase inenergy demand in freight transport to 34,402
ktoe and an increase in GHG emissions to
104,581 kt-CO2, i.e., 3.1 times greater than2005 (see Figure 25). The freight transport
Air

Ship

Large vehicle

Railway

demand in Thailand is much greater than thepassenger transport demand because
Thailand is the largest market for pick-up
vehicles in Southeast Asia. In the
countermeasure scenario, energy efficiency
improvement, modal shift, and fuelsubstitution could together mitigate GHG
emissions at about 23,127 kt-CO2 (see Figure
26).

Small vehicle

2005

2030 CM

3.5

700,000
18,10914,357600,000
500,000

3.0

18,10914,357

Value in 2005 = 1

Millions tonne-km

2030 BAU

400,000
300,000

538,391

200,000

5,734
4,591

100,000

172,160-

4,037

12,6602005

2030 BAU

395,276

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

106,276

0.0

2030CM

Freighttransport

Figure 24: Freight transport demand

EnergydemandGHGemissionsFigure 25: Changes from the base year in
the freight transport sector
Supply side
Improvement in power sector
9 kt-CO2 (0.1%)

Demand side
Fuel switching
7,062 kt-CO2 (30.5%)

Demand side
Efficiency improvement
6,588 kt-CO2 (28.5%)

Demand side
Modal shift
9,469 kt-CO2 (40.9%)

Figure 26: Breakdown of GHG mitigation by means of demand side and supply side20

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Policy on Promotion of Mitigation Measures in the Transport Sector
One important aspect of the emission
mitigation in this sector is the promotion ofenergy efficiency improvement, travel
demand management, and alternative energy.
Promotion of alternative energy results in thesubstitution of natural gas and hybrid
engines for conventional engines. Energy
efficiency improvement, such as improving
fuel economy and eco-car promotion, needs
incentives such as taxes or subsidies (seeFigure 27). In the present study , the GHG
mitigation measures in the transport sector
are found to be cost effective. Furthermore,in this study comprehensive policies on biofuels such as ethanol 20%: E20, ethanol
85%: E85, biodiesel 5%: B5, and biodiesel
10%: B10, and mass transit system inThailand, which would contribute more
GHG reduction, are included.

Mitigation of GHG emissions from the transport sector

Energy efficiency improvement

Energy efficient
vehiclesLowering CO2 intensity

Alternative energy(NGV, Hybrid car)Renewable energy(E20, E85, B5, B10)

Environmental performance standard of vehicles
Tax rate adjustment to energy efficient vehicles
Natural gas and hybrid cars
Renewable energy
Mass transit system

Figure 27: Mitigation measures and policies for transport

21

Modal shiftThailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

A Policy Package towards Low-Carbon Thailand
To achieve the CO2 reduction of 42.5% in
the 2030 CM scenario towards Thailand’s
low-carbon society, comprehensive policy
planning and actions are necessary. Figure
28 shows the policies aforementioned in the
mitigation measures of each sector. In
general, it takes time to implement low-

carbon measures and change the current
status. Therefore, it is important to consider
creating a low-carbon society in the goals ofdevelopment at an earlier stage. Hence it isimperative to set a GHG emissions target as
one of the goals of national development.

Low-Carbon Socieity Policy Package
Residential and Commercial

Electricity Generation
Subsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment

Building insulation

Promotion of technology transfer

Energy Efficiency labeling

Promotion of renewable energy

Green purchasing policy

Fuel switching

Energy performance standard of equipment andevaluation of buildings

Reduce own usage and transmission loss

Transportation

Industry

Environmental performance standard of vehicles
Tax rate adjustment to energy efficient vehicles

Subsidy in investment to energy efficient equipment

Promotion of natural gas and hybrid cars

Promotion of technology transfer

Promotion of renewable energy

Promotion of alternative and renewable energy

Promotion of mass transit system

Incentive to introduce energy efficient equipment and buildings

Energy efficiency improvement

Lowering CO2 intensity

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Thailand

Figure 28: Policy package for Thailand’s low-carbon society vision 2030

22

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Thailand’s Environmental and Energy Policies on Climate Change
Thailand is a signatory to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and is in
the Non-Annex 1 group. As such, Thailand is not
obligated to reduce the level of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. Thailand is only responsible forabout 0.6 percent of the world’s total GHG emissions.
In addition, the average per capita emission ofThailand is lower than the world average.

implementing agency on GHG emission reduction in
Thailand. TGO promotes low carbon activities,
investment and marketing on GHG emission
reductions, establishment of
GHG information
centers, review of CDM projects for approval, andprovides capacity development and outreach for CDM
stakeholders. TGO operates as the DesignatedNational Authority for CDM (DNA-CDM)
inThailand.

However, the impacts of overall climate change on
Thailand will not relatively as low as its greenhousegas emission rates. The impacts of climate change on
Thailand can be categorized under the following
issues: sea level, temperature rise, health and hygiene,
biodiversity, drought and flooding.

Thailand's CDM Policies
The current increase in prices of fuel sources (oil,coal, natural gas), coupled with a high demand forenergy has made it necessary to seek out the use ofrenewable energy sources. CDM will encourage theprivate sector in utilizing renewable energy sources.
TGO has implemented CDM projects in the energy
sector in order to help support the strategies of the
Ministry of Energy and to encourage the private
sector to reduce GHG emissions. The present CDM
activities are in i) the energy sector: production ofenergy from bio-energy and renewable energy, and ii)
environmental sector: waste to energy.

Implementation of Climate Change Mechanisms in
ThailandThailand recognized the significance of climatechange and ratified the UNFCCC in December 1994
with enforcement taking place in March 1995, and the
Kyoto Protocol in August 2002. The reasons are i)
climate change has international consequences, ii)
Thailand was one of the GHG emitters, and iii)
Thailand would be affected by climate change.

Energy Conservation Law 1992 (B.E. 2535)
The Energy Conservation Promotion Act 1992 (B.E.
2535) or briefly Energy Conservation Law was
published in the Government Gazette in 1992. The
ECP Act has the following objectives:
1. Regulate, supervise, promote and support thepeople being affected by the law (the designatedbuildings and factories) to save energy.
2. Promote and support energy efficient machines
and equipment, and the materials used for energy
conservation.
3. Promote and support energy conservation
through a financial mechanism in the form of “Energy
Conservation Promotion Fund”.

The Office of Natural Resources & Environmental
Policy and Planning (ONEP), under the Ministry of
Natural Resources & Environment (MONRE), is theclimate change focal point of Thailand. The strategy
outlines mechanisms and measures that would need to
be undertaken by various agencies. These include
measures for GHG mitigation and adaptation toadverse impacts of climate change, as well as
incorporation in Thailand’s National Social andEconomic Development Plan the details on i)enhancing capabilities on adaptation to climatechange impact and vulnerability, ii) reducing
greenhouse gases emission, iii) promoting publicawareness and participation on climate change, iv)
strengthening capacity building, and v) strengthening
climate change research and development.

The ECP Act has been implemented by the
Department of Energy Development and Promotion(DEDP). DEDE is responsible for national energy
conservation policies, and has taken up a supervisingand directing role in energy production and use,
while encouraging greater energy efficiency in energy
consuming sectors.

In 2006, the Thai cabinet approved the setting up of
National Board on Climate Change Policy, Climate
Change Coordinating Office and Thailand
Greenhouse gas management Organization (TGO) tooverlook clean development mechanism (CDM) in
Thailand. The CDM is a mechanism established by
the Kyoto Protocol to assist the industrialized nations
with commitments for reducing GHG emissions tomeet their targets, and to promote sustainable
development in the developing nations.

In addition, in 2010, the Ministry of Energy has
proposed a 15-year alternative energy development
and energy efficiency plans, and a 20-year power
development plan (PDP2010) that includes green
electricity from renewable energy for up to 5% of
total generation. These policies show the importanceof a low-carbon Thailand.

TGO is the autonomous governmental organization
established with a specific purpose, i.e., as an23

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Actions to Thailand’s LCS 2030
Up to this point, Thailand’s LCS vision 2030
envasages the possibility of reducing about 42.5% of
the total CO2 emission related to energy supply anduse in the country in the 2030 BAU case. In the 2030
CM scenario, there are 9 actions or GHG mitigation

measures in the residential, commercial, industrial,
transport, and power sectors. The next step is the briefroadmap to achieve this GHG mitigation target in the2030 CM scenario.

Action 1: Energy efficiency improvement in households
Action 1.1: (Electricity related) Details of energy
efficiency improvement in electric devices in thehousehold sector are shown in Table 5. In theresidential sector, it is expected that these efficientelectric devices will have penetration rates up to
100% in 2030. The mechanism of Thailand’s demandside management (DSM) and energy efficiency
development plan could readily achieve this target.

Table 5: Expected efficiency improvement of electric devices in households
Appliance
Cooling devices
Heating devices
Lighting power
Refrigerators
Cooking stoves
Cooking appliances

Efficiency improvement (%)
30
30
30
30
30
30

Action 1.2: (Non-Electricity related) Details ofenergy efficiency improvement in non-electric
devices in the household sector are shown in Table 6.
In the residential sector, it is expected that efficient

Penetration in 2030 CM (%)
100
100
100
100
100
100

devices such as energy efficient wood stoves and LPG
stoves will have penetration rates up to 100% in 2030.
The mechanism of Thailand’s energy efficiency
development plan would readily achieve this target.

Table 6: Expected efficiency improvement of non-electric devices in households
Appliance
Wood stove
LPG stove

Efficiency improvement (%)
30
5

24

Penetration in 2030 CM (%)
100
100

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Action 2: Energy efficiency improvement in buildings
Energy efficiency improvement and penetration rates
required in 2030 under this category of actions areshown in Table 7. In buildings, it is expected thatthese efficient electric devices will have penetration

rates up to 100% in 2030. The mechanisms ofThailand’s ECP Act, DSM and energy efficiency
development plan could readily achieve this target.

Table 7: Expected efficiency improvement in buildings
Appliance

Efficiency improvement (%)

Penetration in 2030 CM (%)

30
30
30

100
100
100

CoolingLighting
Refrigerators

Action 3: Energy efficiency improvement in buildings (Building codes)
In this action, building insulation and building
envelope must comply with Thailand’s building codes
2010. New buildings must comply with this code. It is

assumed that penetration rates will be up to 100% in
2030. The new Thailand building codes could readily
achieve this target.

Action 4: Energy efficiency improvement in industry
Action 4.1: (Electricity related) This action assumes
that the technologies in agriculture, mining, andconstruction sub-sectors will not be changed, while
the technologies in textiles, food & beverage,
chemical, others, metallic, and non metallic sub-sectors will be improved as shown in Table 8. The
mechanism of Thailand’s ECP Act, DSM and energy
efficiency development plan could readily achieve
this target.

Table 8: Expected efficiency improvement of electric devices in industry
Industry
TextilesFood & beverage

ChemicalOthersDevice
Motor
Lighting
Others
Motor
Lighting
Others
Motor
Lighting
Others
Motor
Lighting
Others

Efficiency improvement (%)
10
30
20
10
30
20
10
30
20
10
30
20

25

Penetration in 2030 CM (%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Action 4.2: (Non-electricity related) This action
assumes that the technologies in agriculture, mining,and construction sectors will not be changed, while
the technologies in textiles, food & beverage,
chemical, others, metallic, and non metallic industries

will be improved as presented in Table 9. The
mechanism of Thailand’s ECP Act, and energy
efficiency development plan could readily achieve
this target.

Table 9: Expected efficiency improvement of non-electric devices in industry
Industry
TextilesDeviceBoilerFood & beverage

BoilerChemicalBoilerOthersBoiler

Metallic

Furnace

Non metallic

Kiln

Fuel type
Coal
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Electricity
CoalElectricity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Electricity

Efficiency improvement (%)
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30

Penetration in 2030 BAU & 2030 CM (%)
4.2
92.5
3.3
0.1
6.5
93.2
0.2
92.4
7.6
11.4
45.8
40.5
1.2
1.1
1.7
3.5
94.8
81.2
4.2
5.1
9.5

Action 5: Fuel switching in Industry
This action assumes that the technologies inagriculture, mining, and construction sectors will not
be changed, while the technologies in textiles, food &beverage, chemical, others, metallic, and non metallic

industries will be switched to lower carbon fuels (seeTable 10). The mechanism of Thailand’s ECP Act,and energy efficiency development plan could
achieve this target without much difficulty.

Table 10: Expected fuel switching of non-electric devices in industry
Industry
TextilesDeviceBoilerFood & beverage

BoilerChemicalBoilerOthersBoiler

Metallic

Furnace

Non metallic

Kiln

Fuel type
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Electricity
Coal
Biomass
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Electricity

Share in 2030 BAU (%)
4.2
92.5
3.3
0.1
6.5
93.2
0.2
92.4
7.6
11.4
45.8
40.5
1.2
1.1
1.7
3.5
94.8
81.2
4.2
5.1
9.5

26

Share in 2030 CM (%)
4.2
46.2
46.2
3.3
0.1
6.5
93.2
0.2
46.2
46.2
7.6
5.7
22.9
40.5
29.8
1.1
1.7
3.5
94.8
40.6
4.2
45.7
9.5

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Action 6: Fuel economy improvement (FEI) in the transport sector
Action 6.1: (Efficiency improvement) In this action,energy efficiency improvement in both the passenger
and freight transports such as small vehicles, large
vehicles, buses, and motorcycles needs to increase up
to 20% in 2030 by using advanced automotive
technologies. In addition, in this action eco-cars in
Thailand will also be promoted with tax reduction andpartial subsidy in investment. In addition,
environmental performance standard of vehicles isneeded.

Action 6.2: (Travel demand management) In thisaction, comprehensive promotion of travel demand
management (TDM) in the passenger transport isrequired. It is estimated that travel demand in small
vehicles, large vehicles, buses, and motorcycles
decreases by 7.4% in 2030 by using eco-driving, bus
priority, and non-motorized transport. Several studies
of Ministry of Energy show that this action does not
require any capital investment except the incentives
and promotion, and the TDM action is readily costeffective.

Action 7: Fuel switching in the transport sector (Natural gas vehicle & Hybrid vehicles)
Action 7.1: (Natural gas vehicles) In this action,technology of both the passenger and freighttransports such as small vehicles, large vehicles, andbuses will switch from oil to compressed natural gas(CNG). In addition, the technology improvement in
CNG engines will increase by 20% in 2030.

Action 7.2: (Hybrid vehicles) In this action, hybrid
and plug-in hybrid cars will replace conventional
gasoline engines, resulting in energy savings of 30%
when compared to the 2030 BAU scenario.

27

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Action 8: Modal shift in the transport sector
Action 8.1: (Passenger transport sector) In this action,
the modal mix of passenger transport will change suchthat the shares of walking, bus, small vehicles, bikes,
train, motorcycles, large vehicles, and airplanes would
be 25%, 20%, 15%, 12.8%, 12%, 10%, 5%, and 0.2%
respectively.

Action 8.2: (Freight transport sector) In this action, themodal mix of freight transport will be changed only inthe large vehicles and train categories. The modal
share of small vehicles, ships, and airplanes will not bechanged. The share of large vehicles will decrease by
28% and will be substituted by train.

Action 9: Efficiency improvement and fuel switching in power generation
Action 9.1: (Transmission and distribution loss) In this Action 9.3: (Technology transfer) In this action, theaction, the transmission and distribution losses will new power plant technology such as Integrated
improve to 5%.
Gasification Combine Cycle (IGCC) and Combined
Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) will be added to substituteAction 9.2: (Fuel switching) In this action, Thailand’s the old technologies such as coal and lignite-based
Power Development Plan 2010 (PDP 2010) has been power plants. Therefore, the efficiency of power plants
considered. This action increases the share of will improve to be 56% and 48% for CCGT and IGCC
renewable energy and nuclear energy in power power plants, respectively.
generation as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Expected fuel switching in power generation
Fuel type
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
NuclearRenewable energy

Share in 2005
71.4%
6.6%
15.1%
4.4%

Share in 2030 BAU scenario
71.4%
6.6%
15.1%
4.4%

Share in 2030 CM scenario
39.0%
23.6%
20.5%

2.5%

-

11.2%

2.5%

5.7%

MaeMoe PP

RatChaPraPha Dam

28

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Summary of GHG mitigation measures in the 2030 CM scenario
According to the 9 actions of the roadmap,
Thailand’s LCS vision 2030 could contributea CO2 reduction of 42.5% to the nation. In
the 2030 CM scenario, GHG mitigation
measures in the residential, commercial,industrial, transport, and power sectors could

achieve GHG mitigation of 239,560 kt-CO2
accounting for 42.5% reduction in the GHG
emission under the 2030 BAU scenario.
Table 12 shows summary of GHG mitigation
measures from the selected actions.

Table 12: Summary of GHG mitigation measures from all actions
ActionGHG Reduction (kt-CO2)(%)

1. Energy efficiency improvement (EEI) in households- EEI in electric devices- EEI in non-electric devices
2. Energy efficiency improvement in buildings

10,9509,330
1,620
16,384

4.6%
3.9%
0.7%
6.8%

3. Building codes

2,350

1.0%

4. Energy efficiency improvement in industries- EEI in electric devices- EEI in non-electric devices
5. Fuel switching in industry

38,64812,38026,26841,336

16.1%
5.1%
11.0%
17.3%

6. Fuel economy improvement in transportation- Passenger transport- Freight transport

10,739
4,151
6,588

4.5%
1.7%
2.8%

7. Fuel switching in transportation

9,983

4.2%

- Passenger transport- Freight transport
8. Modal shift in transportation- Passenger transport- Freight transport
9. Efficiency improvement and fuel switching in
the power sector

2,921
7,062
17,556
8,087
9,469

1.2%
3.0%
7.3%
3.3%
4.0%

91,614

38.2%

239,560

100.0%

Total GHG mitigation in 2030

Total GHG emissions in the 2030 BAU scenario

563,730 kt-CO2

Total GHG emissions in the 2030 CM scenario

324,170 kt-CO2

29

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Methodology
A Procedure to Create a Thai LCS Scenario
In order to create a local low-carbon society scenario,
we developed a methododology based on the idea of"back casting", which sets a desirable goal first, andthen seeks a way to achieve it. Figure 29 shows an
overview of the method.

(1) Setting Framework(1) Setting framework
The framework of an LCS scenario includes target
area, base year, target year, environmental target, andnumber of scenarios. Among them, the base year iscompared with the target year. The target year should
be far enough to realize a required change, and nearenough for the people in the region to imagine thevision. In this study, we set the target year of Thailand
to 2030. This is also a suitable time span for an LCS
study for the reasons above. As an environmental
target, we targeted CO2 from energy use because it
will be the main source of GHG emissions in 2030.

(2) Description of socioeconomic assumptions(4) Collection of low-carbon
measures(3) Quantification of socioeconomic assumptions(5) Setting introduction of
measures in target year(6) Estimation of GHG
emissions in the target year
(7) Confirming measures set andsuggestions of policy
recommendations

Figure 29: Procedure to create an LCS scenario(5) Setting introduction of counter measures
Technological parameters related to energy demandand CO2 emissions, in short energy efficiency, aredefined. Since there can be various portfolios of themeasures, one must choose appropriate criteria. For
example, cost minimization, acceptance to thestakeholders, or probability of technologicaldevelopment.

(2) Assumptions of socio-economic situations
Before conducting quantitative estimation, a
qualitative future image should be written. It is animage of lifestyle, economy and industry, land use,and so on. .
(3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions
To estimate a snapshot based on a future image of (2),values of exogenous variables and parameters are set.
Using those inputs, ExSS calculates socio-economic
indices of the target year such as population, GDP,
output by industry, transport demand, and so on.

(6) Estimation of GHG emission in the target year
Based on socio-economic indices and assumption of
measures, GHG emissions in the target year are
calculated.

(4) Collection of low-carbon measures
Counter measures, which are thought to be available
in the target year, for example, high energy-efficiency
devices, transport structure such as public transport,
use of renewable energy, energy saving behavior, andcarbon sinks are used. Technical data are required toestimate the effects of the counter measures to reduce
GHG emissions. In this research we employed themeasures shown in preceding studies in Thailand onenergy efficiency improvement and renewable energy
utilization, and GHG mitigation of Ministry ofEnergy.

(7) Proposal of policies
A policy is set to introduce the measures defined.
Available policies depend on the situation of themunicipality or the country in which it belongs. ExSS
can calculate emission reduction from each countermeasure.
Therefore, it can show reduction potential ofcountermeasures, which especially need a supportive
local policy. It can also identify measures, which havehigh reduction potential and therefore are important.

30

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Quantitative estimation tool “Extended Snapshot Tool”
Figure 30 shows the structure of the Extended
Snapshot Tool (ExSS): seven blocks with input
parameters, exogenous variables and variables
between modules. ExSS is a system of simultaneous
equations. Given a set of exogenous variables andparameters, solution is uniquely defined. In thissimulation model, only CO2 emission from energy
consumption is calculated, even though, ESS can beused to estimate other GHG and environmental loads
such as air quality. In many LCS scenarios,
exogenously fixed population data are used. However,people migrate more easily, when the target region isrelatively a smaller area such as a state, district, cityor town. Population is decided by demand fromoutside of the region, labor participation ratio,
demographic composition and relationship ofcommuting with the outside of the region. To
determine output of industries, an input-output
approach with “export-base approach” is combined inline with the theory of regional economics.

intermediate input and consumption of theiremployees. The number of workers must fulfill labordemand of those industries. Given assumptions of
where those workers live and labor participation ratio,
population living in the region is computed. Thismodel enables us to consider viewpoints of regional
economic development to estimate energy demandand CO2 emissions. For future estimation, assumptionof export value is especially important if the target
region is thought to (or, desired to) develop led by aparticular industry, such as automotive manufacturing.
Passenger transport demand is estimated from the
population and freight transport demand, whereby it isa function of output by manufacturing industries.
Floor area of commerce is determined from output of
tertiary industries. With driving force and activity
level of each sector, energy demand by fuels isdetermined with three parameters. These parameters
are energy service demand per driving force, energy
efficiency and fuel share. Diffusion of countermeasures changes the value of these parameters, andso changes the GHG emissions.

Industries producing export goods are called "basic
industry". Production of basic industries induces otherindustries i.e. non-basic industries, through demand of·Export·Import ratio·Government expenditure·Labor productivity·Commuting OD·Labor participation ratio·Demographic composition·Average number of family
occupants

Number ofworkers

Labor moduleLabordemandwage
Averageworking time

Macro-economy and Industry
ModulePrivateconsumption

OutputPopulation and Household Number
ModuleIncomeTime-use andConsumption Module

Population
Number ofhousehold·Breakdown ofconsumption·Floor area per
outputCommercial Building
ModuleFloor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Transport Module·Population distribution·Trip per person·Transport distance·Modal share

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module·Energy service demand generation unit
·Energy efficiency·Fuel share·Emission factor

ModuleMain endogenous
variables

Flow of endogenous variables

GHG emissions

Exogenous variables
and paprameters
Input

Figure 30: Overview of calculation system of Extended Snapshot Tool
31

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

Collection and Estimation of Information
The estimated results of future socio-economic
indicators and energy demand in 2030 are based on
the modeling of the socio-economic variables andenergy balance table in 2030. Most of the socioeconomic indicators and energy balance table in
Thailand are obtained from published statistics andsecondary sources. Assumptions are used where
SECTOR

information for macroeconomic analysis is notavailable for Thailand.
The following are the procedures for estimation ofsocio-economic indicators and energy balance table(final demand sector).

PROCEDURE TO MAKE
THAI ENERGYBALANCE TABLE

REFERENCES

Energy Supply Sector
Indigenous Production
Imports
Exports
Error term
Power supply- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.
- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Electric
power in Thailand Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.
- Thailand’s Power Development Plan, PDP2010.
- Pattanapongchai, A. and Limmeechokchai, B., 2010, CO2 mitigation
model of future power plants with integrated carbon capture and storage in
Thailand. Nuclear & Renewable Energy Conference (INREC), 2010 1stInternational

Energy Demand Sector
Transformation Sector
Utility generation
Refineries
Losses & own use
Statistical discrepancy- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Electric
power in Thailand Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

Industry Sector
Agriculture
Mining & construction
TextileFood & beverage
ChemicalOthers
Metallic
Non metallic- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

Residential & Commercial Sector- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.
- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

Residential Sector
Commercial Sector

Transport Sector
Passenger Transport
Small vehicles

Large vehicles

Buses
Trains
Ships
Aviation

Energy for small vehicles = No.
of vehicles x Average distancex Average fuel economy
Energy for large vehicles = No.
of vehicles x Average distancex Average fuel economy
Energy for bus vehicles = No.
of vehicles x Average distancex Average fuel economy- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.
- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.
- Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency,
Thailand Energy Situation Report (2005), Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

Freight Transport
Freight vehicles
Trains
Ships
Aviation- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport of Thailand.
- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport of Thailand.
- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport of Thailand.
- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport of Thailand.

32

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
INDICATOR
Population
No. of households
Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP)
Value of gross output
Intermediate input
Value added
Paid wage
Private consumption
expenditure
Government consumption
expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation
Private investment expenditure
Government investment
expenditure
Floor space of building stocks

No. of vehicles
Trips per person per day

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
INDICATORUNIT

PROCEDURE TO
ESTIMATE THAISOCIO-ECONOMIC
INDICATORS 2005

Persons

Household
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice at 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
Baht (constantprice in 1988)
m2

VehiclesTrips/person/day

UNIT

Modal share of passengers%

Average trip distancekm

Trips per person per day =2.61

PROCEDURE TO
ESTIMATE THAISOCIO-ECONOMIC
INDICATORS 2005

Passenger-km

Passenger transport volume:
Railways

Passenger-km

Modal share of freight
Freight transport volume:
freight vehicles
Freight transport volume:
Railways
CO2 emissions factor- Department of Provincial Administration, Ministry ofInterior.
- National Statistic Office of Thailand, Ministry ofInformation and Communication Technology,
Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Prime Minister’s office, Thailand.
- Santisirisomboon, J., Environmental Emission
Abatement Strategies in the Energy Sector: theIntegrated Economic, Environment and Energy
Approach. SIIT Doctoral Dissertation. 2001.
- Department of Land Transport, Ministry of Transportof Thailand.
- WDI, GDF & ADI Online Databases: The WorldBank.

REFERENCES- WDI, GDF & ADI Online Databases: The WorldBank- Chanchaona, S., Suwantragul, B., Sasivimolphan, S.,
Jugjai, S., and Chuntasiriwan, S.A., 1997. Study ofstrategies for energy conservation in vehicles,
Department of Mechanical Engineering, King
Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi.
- Chanchaona, S., Suwantragul, B., Sasivimolphan, S.,
Jugjai, S., and Chuntasiriwan, S.A., 1997. Study ofstrategies for energy conservation in vehicles,
Department of Mechanical Engineering, King
Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi.
- Tanatvanit, S., Limmeechokchai, B., andChungpaibulpatana, S., 2003, Sustainable energy
development strategies: implications of energy demand
management and renewable energy in Thailand.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. 7: 367–395.
- WDI, GDF & ADI Online Databases: The WorldBank- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport ofThailand- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport ofThailand- Thailand transport portal, Ministry of Transport ofThailand- IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, 1996.

Average fuel economy

Passenger transport volume:
Passenger vehicles (motorcar,
motorcycle, bus)

REFERENCES%
Tonne-kmTonne-km
kt-C/ktoe

33

Agriculture

Total use (domestic
production)

Total final demand

ImportExportFixed capital formation

Government consumption

Private consumption

Total intermediate input

Services

Nonmetallic

Metallic & machinery

Other Manufacturing

ChemicalFood products & beverages

TextilesConstruction

Agriculture

MiningTable 13: Input-output table of Thailand in 2005 (Unit: billion Baht)

110

0

3

540

30

112

48

0

1

108

952

541

2

(358)

62

(82)

165

1,117

Mining

0

48

52

1

0

747

169

22

67

0

1,106

0

-

(90)

62

(769)

(798)

309

Construction

1

0

0

1

0

1

2

3

1

8

17

0

1

635

1

(0)

637

653

Textiles

81

-

-

291

0

8

26

0

1

194

602

827

12

(225)

510

(199)

925

1,526

Food products &beverages

0

0

1

362

17

36

6

1

29

453

269

1

(133)

329

(117)

350

804

36

35

60

73

478

237

240

144

485

1,969

577

46

(741)

802

(793)

(108)

1,861

Other Manufacturing

8

3

29

41

65

114

578

108

53

346

1,345

679

75

(4)

532

(463)

819

2,164

Metallic & machinery

31

13

171

64

8

19

211

2,254

19

206

2,997

437

17

640

2,235

(2,761)

568

3,565

Nonmetallic

1

0

146

7

0

2

12

27

82

3

279

47

1

214

68

(38)

292

572

Services

28

33

51

40

25

38

89

81

20

615

1,019

1,531

758

2,639

625

(387)

5,167

6,186

444

134

487

1,045

564

1,535

1,406

2,741

389

1,995

10,739

4,910

912

2,577

5,227

(5,609)8,017

18,756

221

42

60

113

87

87

256

210

58

1,506

2,639

Operating surplus

452

102

102

249

146

190

476

390

125

2,260

4,491

Other value added

0

30

5

119

7

49

26

225

1

425

887

Total value added

673

174

166

481

240

326

758

824

183

4,191

8,017

1,117

309

653

1,526

804

1,861

2,164

3,565

572

6,186

18,756

Export2
182

Fixed capital formation

Chemical

Total intermediate
input
Compensation of
employee

Total input (domestic
production)

Note: Exchange rate, US$ 1 = 35 Baht.

Total final demand

Total use (domestic
production)

369

155

1

3

483

2,928

1,143

7

(1,301)

224

(200)

(126)

2,802

0

2,468

545

79

234

0

3,682

0

-

(329)

224

(2,539)(2,643)

1,039

Construction

1

1

1

2

1

3

6

9

4

37

65

1

3

2,308

4

(1)

2,315

2,380

203

-

-

829

1

28

84

1

3

869

2,018

1,747

43

(817)

1,853

(489)

2,337

4,355

4

0

2

3

1,085

56

115

21

4

127

1,417

569

2

(482)

1,198

(297)

990

2,407

Chemical

456

123

128

172

217

1,580

767

853

500

2,166

6,962

1,220

168

(2,693)

2,918(2,423)

(811)

6,151

Other Manufacturing

21

11

104

116

195

377

1,869

385

183

,548

4,809

1,435

272

(15)

1,935

(1,436)

2,191

7,000

Metallic & machinery

78

43

624

182

25

63

683

8,019

68

922

10,707

925

60

2,327

8,128

(9,461)

1,978

12,686

TextilesFood products &beverages

Nonmetallic

ImportPrivate consumption

89

4

Government consumption

Total intermediate input

Services

1,542

189

Metallic & machinery

Other Manufacturing

10

162

Food products & beverages

10

Agriculture

Construction

277

MiningAgriculture

ChemicalTextilesMiningTable 14: Input-output table of Thailand in 2030 (Unit: billion Baht)

Nonmetallic

2

0

531

19

1

7

38

95

286

15

993

100

5

777

248

(133)

998

1,991

Services

71

112

185

114

73

125

287

289

69

2,747

4,072

10,712

2,757

9,597

2,274

(1,767)

23,57327,646

1,113

452

1,774

2,982

1,688

5,075

4,549

9,752

1,354

8,916

37,654

17,854

3,318

9,370

19,006(18,745)

30,802

68,457

555

143

218

322

260

289

827

745

200

6,731

10,289Operating surplus

1,134

344

372

711

439

627

1,540

1,387

434

10,09917,086

Other value added

1

101

16

340

21

161

84

801

3

1,900

3,428

Total value added

1,689

588

606

1,373

719

1,077

2,451

2,933

637

18,73030,802

Total input (domestic
production)

2,802

1,039

2,380

4,355

2,407

6,151

7,000

12,686

1,991

27,64668,457

Total intermediate
input
Compensation of
employee

Note: Exchange rate, US$ 1 = 35 Baht.

34

Table 15: Energy demand table of Thailand in 2005 (Unit: ktoe)
Coal

IndustryNonmanufacturing

Manufacturing

Agriculture
MiningConstruction
TextilesFood &
Beverages
ChemicalOthers
Metallic
Non metallic

Total

Oil

3,239

-

25

-

-

-

25

0%

-

140

-

-

-

140

0.2%

43

345

-

-

661

1,049

1.8%

28

702

-

4,798

801

6,329

11%

809

606

-

190

798

2,403

4.2%

540

1,586

1,520

18

1,477

5,141

9%

162

342

-

-

553

1,057

1.8%

269

-

326

602

6,370

11.1%

6,755

7,233

1,520

5,332

4,913

25,753

44.9%

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Electricity

5,621

2,203

Biomass

Electricity

Small vehicles
Large vehicles
Buses
TrainsSmall vehicles
Large vehicles
Trains

1,897

-

Oil

Gas
-

-

Oil

Gas

-

Biomass

Total
9,721

Total

3,305

Electricity

3,305

Total

Ratio of all sectors
17%

Ratio of all sectors
5.8%

Ratio of all sectors

-

2,165

8

-

-

2,174

3.8%

-

2,517

32

-

-

2,550

4.4%

-

2,797

3

-

-

2,800

4.9%

-

20

-

-

4.9

25

0%

-

4,767

1.4

-

-

4,768

8.3%

-

6,153

-

-

-

6,153

10.7%

-

79

-

-

0

80

0.1%

-

18,49845-

518,548

32.4%

6,755

27,628

1,565

10,953

10,42657,327100%

Total
All sectors

5.7%

5,173

Coal

Freight transport

Ratio of all sectors

21-

Passenger
transport

Total

-

Coal

Transport

Electricity--

Commercial

Biomass

3,218

Coal

Residential

Gas-

Table 16: Energy demand table of Thailand in 2030 BAU (Unit: ktoe)
Coal

IndustryNonmanufacturing

Manufacturing

Agriculture
MiningConstruction
TextilesFood &
Beverages
ChemicalOthers
Metallic
Non metallic

Total
Residential

Oil

Freight transport
Total

All sectors

Ratio of all sectors

53

8,127

4.9%

-

83

-

-

-

83

0.1%

-

512

-

-

-

512

0.3%

123

984

-

-

1,886

2,993

1.8%

84

2,104

-

14,372

2,399

18,959

1.5%

2,674

2,003

-

628

2,638

7,943

4.8%

1,747

5,130

4,917

58

4,778

16,630

10.1%

576

1,217

-

-

1,968

3,761

2.3%

18,013

937

-

1,135

2,096

22,181

13.5%

23,21721,043

4,917

16,193

15,81881,189

49.2%

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Electricity

15,026

5,889

Biomass

Electricity

5,071

-

Oil

Coal

Passenger
transport

Total

-

-

Small vehicles
Large vehicles
Buses
TrainsSmall vehicles
Large vehicles
TrainsElectricity

-

Coal

Transport

Biomass

8,075-

Commercial

Gas

-

Gas
-

-

Oil

Gas

-

Biomass

Total
25,986

Total

14,771

Electricity

14,771

Total

Ratio of all sectors
15.8%

Ratio of all sectors
9%

Ratio of all sectors

-

2,443

9

-

-

2,452

1.5%

-

2,840

37

-

-

2,877

1.7%

-

3,155

4

-

-

3,159

1.9%

-

22

-

-

5

28

0%

-

14,907

4--

14,911

0%-

19,241---

19,241

11.7%
0.2%

-

248

-

-

1

249

-

47,85854-

642,91826%

23,217

68,972

4,971

31,21936,484

164,863

100%

35

Table 17: Energy demand table of Thailand in 2030 CM (Unit: ktoe)
Coal

IndustryNonmanufacturing

Manufacturing

Agriculture
MiningConstruction
TextilesFood &
Beverages
ChemicalOthers
Metallic
Non metallic

Total

Oil

6,511

5.0%

-

83

-

-

-

83

0.1%

-

512

-

-

-

512

0.4%

109

485

247

-

1,671

2,511

1.9%

69

1,481

-

11,144

2,162

14,857

11.5%

1,094

835

-

2,452

2,318

6,698

5.2%

710

2,027

5,265

1,109

4,383

13,494

10.5%

443

936

-

-

1,514

2,893

2.2%

6,928

721

-

7,801

1,613

17,062

13.2%

9,353

13,5375,512

22,506

13,71264,621

50.1%

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Electricity

11,650

4,532

Biomass

Electricity

3,940

Freight transport
Total

All sectors

-

Oil

Coal

Passenger
transport

Ratio of all sectors

53-

Small vehicles
Large vehicles
Buses
TrainsSmall vehicles
Large vehicles
Trains

Total

-

Coal

Transport

Electricity--

Commercial

Biomass

6,458

Coal

Residential

Gas

-

Gas
-

-

Oil

Gas

-

Biomass

Total
20,121

Total

11,391

Electricity

11,391

Total

Ratio of all sectors
15.6%

Ratio of all sectors
8.8%

Ratio of all sectors

-

658

7

444

-

1,108

0.9%

-

958

173

25

-

1,187

0.9%

-

1,120

11

80

-

1,111

0.9%

-

462

-

-

111

573

0.4%

-

12,885

47

1,047

-

13,97810.8%-

12,20771

991-

13,269

10.3%

-

1,604

-

-

5

1,609

1.2%

-

29,825

308

2,587

116

32,836

25.5%

9,353

47,301

5,820

36,47329,751

128,968

100.0%

36

37

Thailand’s Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030
November, 2010
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
Thammasat University
Bundit Limmeechokchai
Supachart Chungpaibulpatana
Rachnarin Nitisoravut
Pornphimol Winyuchakrit
Artite Pattanapongchai

Asian Institute of Technology
Ram M Shrestha
Shreekar Pradhan

National Institute for Environmental Studies
Mikiko Kainuma
Toshihiko Masui
Junichi Fujino
Shuichi Ashina

Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kei Gomi

Mizuho Information & Research Institute
Hibino Go
Tomoki Ehara

This research is funded by Global Environmental Research Fund (S-6) of MoEJ