November, 2009
Roadmap Committee
Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research TeamIntroduction
In response to a request for drastic reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a global
scale, recently in case of developed countries, med and long term plan towards a low carbon
society is being drawn up not only at the country level, but also at regional or local community
level. If we take a overview of these plans and scenarios, measures and their effects forachieving med and long term targets are listed; however, the fact is, a roadmap of actions for theirimplementation is still unclear.
In the meanwhile, for Shiga prefecture (Japan), based on "Shiga’s scenario towards therealization of a sustainable society" (March 2007) released by the research team, "A vision forsustainable Shiga" was drawn up in March 2008, where the challenging target of 50% reduction
in GHG emissions from the 1990 level was decided. At Shiga prefecture office, preparation of aroadmap for achieving this target is going on intensively.
Taking this situation into account, the research team deliberated on the policy roadmap using
a back-casting method with respect to Shiga scenario prepared earlier. Outcomes of the research
have been summarized in this brochure. In the first half of brochure, premises for Shiga scenario
estimations, required measures for achieving the target of 50% reduction and their effects
have been summarized. The measures were classified in "City," "Transportation/Distribution,""Lifestyle," "Industry," "Energy," and "Forestry." Later half of the brochure deals with the main topic
where in addition to systematizing the actions for each of the above classification categories, we
also prepared a roadmap for implementation of policies.
The roadmap provided in this brochure has been prepared based on the assumptions
concerning administrative capital required for each action, practicable timing, and effects ofimplementation. Transitions in policy packages which should be taken during twenty years from2010 to 2030, as well as the reduction effects are given in a quantitative and consistent manner.
Of course, this roadmap is not one and only thing. We hope that this roadmap would serve
as a springboard for further intensive discussions among all the concerned parties including the
public administration, local residents and business entities in Shiga for drawing up realistic andpracticable roadmap.
November, 2009
Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team

Koji Shimada
Roadmap Committee, Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team
Koji Shimada (College of Economics, Ritsumeikan University)
Masaaki Naito (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute)
Yuzuru Matsuoka (Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University)
With kind cooperation of,
Kazuomi Okuda and Hiroyuki Sugie (Global Warming Prevention Office, Environmental Policy
Division, Department of Lake Biwa and the Environment, Shiga Prefecture)
Kei Gomi (Hall of Global Environment Research, Kyoto University Graduate School of Global
Environmental Studies)
Kousuke Yoshimoto and Yuki Ochi (Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University)
Takashi Fukuda (Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University)
BureauJaegyu Kim and Yuichi Sato (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute, Shiga Prefecture)
Takashi Iwakawa (NPO Kyoto Institute for Eco-Sound Social Systems)

A Roadmap for Sustainable Shiga Towards 2030
Contents
Overview................................................................................................................. 4

Vision of sustainable Shiga in 2030
Social assumptions in 2030............................................................................. 6

Current status and trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
A wide variety of measures
Six policies..................... 6.............................................................................. 7....................................................................................................... 8

A roadmap towards sustainable society
Setting and systematization of actions.......................................................... 10

Roadmap for achieving the targets................................................................ 11City in harmony-with-green space................................................................. 16

Transportation/distribution gently connecting people and objects to environment....................................................................................................................... 17
Lifestyle changing with “Mottainai” ................................................................. 18
Industry growing along with environment
Energy produced by nature...................................................... 19........................................................................... 20

Forest development supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle

Research methodology................................. 21........................................................................................ 22

O v erv i ew
Ov
"Sustainable Society" started from conceptualization
and after going through the stage of quantitatively laying
down the vision, we have finally come to the stageof writing the roadmap for achieving the goals. This
brochure is a research report of backcasting done forpreparing quantitative roadmap.

In what shape will Shiga be as a

15,00014,369sustainable society? What should be done toachieve that? These issues call for intense

12,496debate and actions.

Agriculture(metahne)

12,877

Waste
incineration
Industrial
process

12,000for creating the vision of sustainable society,which is perhaps the starting point of thisdebate, and we published it as "Shiga’s
scenario towards the realization of asustainable society" (March 2007). Here
we showed the vision that it is possible toachieve the goals by making the following
innovative changes on both the fronts of

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

At Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society
Research Team, we established a method

Freighttransport
9,000

Passenger
transport
6,276

Industry
Business
operations

6,000

Household
Forestabsorption

3,000

technology and social system.
・Moderate annual economic growth of0around 0.9% per person and maintaining the1990

population at current levels
・Improving energy efficiency by promoting

2000 2030BaU

2030withmeasures-3,000high energy efficient equipments, superinsulated house and buildings etc. on anational basis
・Radical improvements in energy-saving
systems by regional level initiatives suchas energy-saving life style, changes intransportation structure etc.

Greenhouse gas emissions
It shows GHG emissions for each emission category in Shiga in
1990, 2000, and 2030, in case no measures are taken (BaU=Businessas Usual) as well as when the required measures are taken. If no
measures are taken, emission will increase by another 15% in 2030
(compared to 1990); however, 50% reduction is possible by implementing
various measures.

Next, it is important to shed light on
actual roadmap in terms of when and who should do what for realizing the vision of society. This brochure defines
the roadmap up to promotion the required amount of measures by accumulating practicable actions on the basisof estimates presented in "Shiga’s scenario towards the realization of a sustainable society."First of all, we organized the measures that should be taken to cut down the emission of GHG and processes
required for the implementation of measures as basket of actions, and classified them under six policies referred
to as "City," "Transportation," "Lifestyle," "Industry," "Energy," and "Forest Development."4

After that, for each policy, based on the assumed administrative capital required for implementing theactions, practicable timing and benefits of implementation, we developed and applied the method for preparing
the schedule that will yield maximum results and let us complete everything by target year. Based on this,from 2010 to the target year of 2030, it would be possible to quantitatively and consistently show the year-wise
implementation status of policies, GHG reductions in a form of progressive table.
In this brochure, we selected a basket of actions after considering the existing actions taken in Shiga
prefecture and plans that are under preparation, and calculated based on the assumed value consideredappropriate at this point in time. As a results of the calculation, we concluded that in the first half of theimplementation period, actions typified by “Lifestyle” and “Industry” should be pushed as such actions are in close
range to the daily life of people working in the prefecture or people residing in the prefecture. In the later half of
the implementation period, actions typified by “City” and “Forest Development” should be taken to build large
scale social infrastructure in a concentrated manner. When the measures have progressed smoothly, it would bepossible to achieve 85% of the final reduction targets in the middle of the implementation period, i.e. in the year
2020.
These results show only an “image” using the method for preparing roadmap, which is the outcome ofresearch team. These results do not propose that such kind of content should be implemented. We wish that theoutcome of this research would act as a springboard for discussing the roadmap towards sustainable society by
many people.
7,000

Forest development
supporting Biwa Lakeand lifestyle

GHG emission reductions（kt-CO2）

6,000

Energy producedby nature
5,000

Industry growing
along with environment

4,000

3,000

Lifestyle changing
with “Mottainai”

2,000

1,000

Transportation/distribution
gently connecting people
and objects to environment

0City in harmony-with-green
space
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Changes in policy-wise GHG emission reductions
Actions that will directly or indirectly lead to the reduction in GHG emissions weresummarized as “Policies” for each field, and changes in the reduction amount were shownon time series plot when the measures for reducing the emissions by half are implemented.
If the policies are implemented on schedule, it would be possible to already achieve 85% oftargeted reduction at intermediate time (2020).

5

Vision of Sustainable
Shiga in 2030
Environment burden is closely related to social andeconomic situation at that point in time. So far, after
making certain assumption about social trends by 2030,
we make various estimates for Shiga such as supply anddemand of resources.

Here, we will present the outline of how Shiga would be in 2030, which was summarized by Shiga Prefecture
Sustainable Society Research Team in “Shiga’s scenario towards the realization of a sustainable society” (March,
2007).

Social assumptions in 2030
Shiga’s socioeconomic vision in 2030 can be characterized by the following three major trends,
1. Return of population of the current level and continuous aging of society;2. Maturation of economic growth;
3. Dramatic increase in the role of the tertiary industry; and4. Dramatic increase in the proportion of women and elderly people in employment.
The urban population continues to increase due to the settlement of young people and migration from otherprefectures. It means that the service industry will enjoy significant growth and provide employment. While many
residents of cities live in collective housing in compact cities, they will participate in local traditional activities
and form communities and lifestyles integrating both old and new generations. Daily shopping and amusement
do not depend on large suburban shopping malls. People use shopping avenues around railway stations and indowntown areas, rejuvenating the liveliness of urban centers. Such communities have another crucial function ofproviding avenues for cultural leisure activities for people in both urban and rural areas.
Despite the decrease in population in agricultural and fishing areas, large scale and exceptional multifunction
agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries is growing. In addition to supplying food and timber (Shiga brandproducts) to the prefectural market, it also contributes to watershed production, in the prefecture as well as therecharge of water resources, maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks, supply of biomass energy, and thepromotion of eco-tourism. Furthermore, village development in harmony with nature progresses as a model forthe sustainable society, and villages serve as sources of leisure, welfare, nursing care, and education by using theblessings bestowed by nature through exchanges with people in urban areas.
Based on the above, we assumed the socio-economic trends of Shiga in 2030 as shown in Tables 1-2 andFigure 1.

Current status and trends of GHG emissions
Our target is to reduce GHG emissions by 50% below the 1990 level. CO 2 emissions from energy
consumption (Household, commercial, industrial, passenger transportation, and freight transportation sector fromclassification of GHG emissions in Figure 2), the dominant source of greenhouse gases in Shiga Prefecture,
were 11.1 million tons of CO2 in 1990 and increased by 10% to 12.1 million tons of CO2 in 2000. If measures foremission control are not taken, the emissions are estimated to grow to 13.8 million tons of CO2 in 2030 (“2030BaU”
of Figure 2). This represents around 20% increase in emissions over 1990 level.

6

Table 1: Socioeconomic assumptions
Population

1,380,000 in 2030 (Estimation of Shiga Prefecture as of 2006. Estimation as of 2005 was also more or less same)

Japanese Economy

Average annual growth of 0.9% in per capita GDP

Public-sector fixed
capital formation

Investment in infrastructure development, etc. After basic infrastructure development has been completed, new development isdramatically reduced and capital investment is placed mainly on maintenance and management. Total investment is lower than thecurrent level.

Breakdown ofprivate consumption
expenditure

Breakdown of the goods and services consumed mainly in households. With longer-life products, the value of purchased goods remains
unchanged. It is assumed that the shares of spending for the primary industry and personal services (education, healthcare andinsurance, accommodation, etc.) increase.

Employment rate

Through the development of the welfare environment to facilitate the employment of elderly people and women, the employment rate ofelderly males rises by 20% and the rate of women by 10 to 30%.

Daily time budget

The working hours of male workers are reduced by 1.5 hours per day. It is assumed that both men and women increase time forparticipating in social activities.

Breakdown of exports

The breakdown of goods and services delivered from Shiga to outside the prefecture. The exports of products in the manufacturingindustry are assumed to remain unchanged in monetary terms.

Import ratio

The ratio of the goods and services produced outside Shiga Prefecture in the demands for goods and services in the prefecture. The
import ratio of goods in the primary industry has declined, but imports of other goods and serviceshave increased.

Input coefficient

The input of raw materials needed for the production of one unit in a certain industry. It is assumed that this figure declines due topaperless operations based on the use of IT, less input of metal and cement and increase of wood products in public projects, andreduced consumption of fuel and electricity as a result of energy saving.

Labor productivity

To maintain an annual economic growth of 0.9% while the population is decreasing, it is necessary to secure high labor productivity.
Labor productivity per person-hour rises by 2.7% per annum in the manufacturing industry and by 1.6% in the service industry.

Table 2: Macroeconomic indicators (billion yen)
2030

’30/’02

15,000

Average
growth rate

Real GDP of Shiga
Prefecture

5,884

7,677

1.30

0.95%

Per capita (10,000 yen)

433

556

1.28

0.90%

Real private consumption
expenditure

2,541

3,145

1.24

0.76%

Real housing investment

245

285

1.16

0.53%

Real exports

6,004

8,132

1.35

1.09%

Real imports

5,183

7,162

1.38

1.16%

Real private capital
investment

782

1,098

1.40

1.22%

Real public consumption

877

1,617

1.84

2.21%

Real public fixed capitalformation

433

339

0.78

-0.87%

Production (billion yen)

2002

Primary
industry
Secondaryindustry
Tertiary
industry

12,000
9,000
6,000
3000
0
2000

2030

Fig. 1: Production by industry

A wide variety of measures

15,000

Based on the above socioeconomic assumption and

14,36912,496

Agriculture(metahne)

12,8771990 level, we worked out the combination of measures

Waste
incineration
Industrial
process(Refer to Table 3 on next page). Even if the highly energy

Freighttransport

for reducing GHG emissions by 50% in 2030 below theused to the maximum extent possible, and even after
considering the changes in CO2 emissions associated withchanges in the energy mix of electric power consumption,
it will be still impossible to achieve the target of 50%
reduction. Nevertheless, with additional measures at the
local level including drastic changes in transport systems,

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

efficient technologies that might be available in 2030 are

12,000

9,000

Passenger
transport
6,276

Industry
Business
operations

6,000

Household
Forestabsorption

3,000

environmental friendly actions by almost all people, andintroduction of renewable energy, computationally it is0

possible to reduce GHG emissions by 50% (66% reduction

1990

compared to BaU) (“2030 with measures” of Figure 2).

2000 2030BaU

2030withmeasures-3,000Fig. 2: GHG emissions

7

Vision of sustainable Shiga

Number of households 520,000 households in 2030 (Same as above. 470,000 households in 2005)

Table 3: List of measures
SectorHouseholdMeasureReductions(kt-CO2)

Status to be achieved by 2030

Energy efficiency of equipment

Improvement of efficiency by 30% in total

551

HEMS (home energy
management system)

Penetration at 90% of houses

60

Heat insulation level in houses

Achievement of the next-generation heat insulation level in 90%
of houses

55

Biomass heating

Penetration of wood stove at 10% of households

39

Passive solar heating

Penetration at 10% of households

39

Energy saving actions

Penetration at almost all households

156

Photovoltaic power

Penetration at 20% of households

54

Solar water heater

Penetration at 20% of households

99

Others89
Total in households

Business

Improvement of efficiency by 36% in total

443

BEMS (business energy
management system)

Introduction to 90% of buildings

47

Heat insulation level in business
90% of energy saving buildings in all buildings
buildings

31

Biomass heating

Penetration rate of 10%

19

Energy saving actions

Penetration at almost all business establishments

43

Photovoltaic power

Installation at 15% of buildings

12

Others79
Total in businessIndustry

Improvement of efficiency by 28% in total

846

Fuel shift

Natural gas : 2000 8.6→25.9%, Oil : 2000 55.5%→39.4%,
Coal : 2000 4.9%→0.9%, Electric power : 2000
30.9%→33.7%

883

Compact city

Reduction of average distance of intra-city travel by 25%

215

Improvement of fuel efficiency
of automobiles

Improvement of average fuel efficiency of passenger cars by
60% (penetration of hybrid cars at 90%)788

Modal shift (Public transport)
Modal shift (bicycles andwalking)

Share of public transport(bus, railway, LRT) : 37% (25% in2000), Shares of bicycles and walking: 16%(6% in 2000),
Shares of car: 45%(66% in 2000)

Biomass fuelPenetration rate of 10%633

36
Total in passenger transport

1,865

Enhancement of logistics
efficiency

Reduction of transport per production by 30%

51

Modal shift

Substitution of railway transport for freight for 50% of roadtransport to distant prefectures, Substitution of lake transport
for 10% of the transport within the prefecture

194

Biomass fuelPenetration rate of 10%

75

Others150
Total freigth transport

Others

1,729

193

OthersFreighttransport

674

Energy efficiency of equipment

Total in industry

Passenger
transport

1,144

Energy efficiency of equipment

Reduction of CO2 emissions per
power generation

470
1,687

Forest development

Management of all artificial forests in Shiga Prefecture

Recycling of waste

Improvement of the recycling rate of plastic by 36%

Total

477
48
8,094

Six policies
Roadmap preparation is the task of systematizing the roadmap of realizing individual measures shown in
Table 3. Here, first of all we will define 6 policies that are deeply related from the point of view of actions. Image ofsustainable society from each policy is presented below.

8Vision of sustainable Shiga

1. City in harmony-with-green space
In urban areas, comfortable urban spaces have come up where residences and stores haveconsolidated due to advancement of planned use of land, comprehensive clusters of office space haveemerged, green spaces and waterfront environments have been developed so that an opportunity ofcoming in contact with nature is always at hand and where people are maintaining home gardens. In
villages, beautiful countryside and mountain landscapes are maintained through sound and sustained
lifestyle. Most of the buildings have become modal by leveraging the benefits of super-insulated
specifications and natural energy sources such as photovoltaic energy. Moreover, forest resources of local
areas have been reexamined and energy-efficient and comfortable living spaces have been developed
even in houses and public facilities such as schools by use of wood.

2. Transportation/distribution gently connecting people and objects to environment
Users of public transportation and bicycle will increase by improving their convenience, which has led
to decline in usage of automobiles and it has resulted in a safe and comfortable transportation environment.
In areas away from the central zone, electric vehicles and hybrid cars are used and highly energy-efficient
operation is practiced while paying attention to ecological drive. Work place and residence are close by andcommon facilities and service facilities are also concentrated. Highly convenient, economic, and compact
town development is under progress. Instead of transportation by trucks, convenient and comfortable large
scale transportation by railway and by ship is increasingly used.

3. Lifestyle changing with “Mottainai”
Along with the spread of high quality, highly efficient and long-life products, and realization of
comfortable and energy-saving living space, utilization of natural energy such as solar power generation
and wood biomass is progressing in common houses. Moreover, consciousness of environmental
conservation has widely permeated in people, resulting in the spread of energy-saving behaviors suchas ecologically-friendly cooking techniques and green purchasing. People are adopting the lifestyle thatplaces little burden on environment, such as thoroughly separating and collecting recyclable waste.

4. Industry growing along with environment
By the implementation of highly efficient equipments and facilities, environmental consciousness byenergy conservation and profitability improvement by the reduction of manufacturing costs are growing
hand in hand. In agricultural industry “environmentally friendly agriculture” has entrenched as a standard,
and along with local production for local consumption, people are able to eat seasonal agricultural
products. In manufacturing industry, GHG reduction is pursued with relentless efforts, and such efforts
are socially recognized through release of reports and acquisition of certifications. In office, energy
conservation behavior such as cool biz and warm biz as well as green purchasing has extended to almost
all business locations. Usage of natural energy is also on rise.

5. Energy produced by nature
Using the forces of bountiful nature of Shiga prefecture, implementation of natural energy such as
photovoltaic energy and wood biomass energy is rapidly progressing. Degree of self-sufficiency in energy
is also increasing by effective distributed utilization of resources according to regional characteristics.

6. Forest development supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle
All the four seasons can be very well sensed and enjoyed. Beautiful Lake Biwa and scenery oflush green forests is still remaining. Rich prefectural land with the help of healthy and sustainable forest
production has been preserved. Not only excellent wood and beautiful mountain landscape will be secured,
but multiple functions of wood can be used in a sustained manner.

9

A roadmap towards
sustainable society
Various measures are required to successfully
establishing sustainable society, and several processes
need to be followed for implementing these measures.
Roadmap towards sustainable society was preparedby prioritizing and systematically organizing the actions
necessary for achieving main targets and by finalizing
implementation schedule.

Setting and systematization of actions
In addition to the measures mentioned in the vision of sustainable Shiga for reducing GHG emissions byhalf, items required to be done in advance or in parallel for implementing the measures as well as items that will
support the measures were picked up as “actions” and the task of preparing the schedule so that everything iscomplete by 2030 is called “roadmap preparation.”If the measures for reducing GHG emissions to half and reduction achieved due to these measures (refer toTable 3 on page 8) are sorted according to six policies and “improvements in system electric power,” we will get
the breakdown shown in graph of Figure 3. Here the specific items of six policies were selected and arranged as
an individual action. We prepared progressive table for each of them on annual basis.
Left side of Table 4 on page 12 shows the relationship between detailed “actions for reducing GHG” includedin each policy and the measures shown so far. This table re-summarizes “situation which should be achieved in
2030 and reduction benefits.” In addition, required processes corresponding to individual action were extracted as“related actions.” Relationship with each of the actions can be systematized as shown on page 14.

Reduction of CO2 emissions
per power generation
Forest development
1,687 kt-CO2
City
supporting Biwa Lake and lifestylein harmony-with-green
540 kt-CO2
space
193 kt-CO2
Energyproduced by nature2030
445 kt-CO2

Total reductions
8,094 kt-CO2

Industry
growing alongwith environment
2,326 kt-CO2

Transportation/distribution
gently connecting people
and objects to environment
2,067 kt-CO2

Lifestylechanging with “Mottainai”
835 kt-CO2

Fig. 3: Policy-wise breakdown of reductions in 2030

10Roadmap for achieving the targets

for details of method) for preparing the schedule that will yield maximum results and let us complete everythingby target year. Based on this, from 2010 to the target year of 2030, it would be possible to quantitatively andconsistently show the year-wise implementation status of policies, GHG reductions in a form of progressive table.
Details of six policies are described from page 16 onwards.
In this brochure, we selected a basket of actions after considering the existing actions taken in Shiga
prefecture and plans that are under preparation, and perform various calculations based on the assumed values
considered appropriate at this point in time. Graph of Figure 4 shows GHG emissions for each policy from2010 to 2030 based on the time schedule as per calculation results. We concluded that in the first half of theimplementation period, actions typified by “Lifestyle” and “Industry” should be pushed as such actions are in close
range to the daily life of people working in the prefecture or people residing in the prefecture. In the later half of
the implementation period, actions typified by “City” and “Forest Development” should be taken to build large
scale social infrastructure in a concentrated manner.
In the right side of Table 4, progress of various actions required to be implemented and GHG reductions
achieved at year 2020 are shown. If the actions progress smoothly, in 2020, already 5,500 kiloton of CO2 could be
reduced, which is 85% of the final target.
Systematization of actions shown here is only for clarifying the contents in a concrete form. It does not meanthat sustainable society would be formed by implementing each action. Reducing the use of privately owned
vehicle to mitigate the environmental burden originating from transportation is closely integrated with rejuvenating
the urban areas having good public transport. Moreover, invigoration of regional economy is required for many
people to get-together. It is necessary to understand the connection between a wide variety of actions and preparea structure required for implementing a wide variety of measures in organized manner.

7,000

Forest development
supporting Biwa Lakeand lifestyle

GHG emission reductions（kt-CO2）

6,000

Energy producedby nature
5,000

Industry growing
along with environment

4,000

3,000

Lifestyle changing
with “Mottainai”

2,000

1,000

Transportation/distribution
gently connecting people
and objects to environment

0City in harmony-with-green
space
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Fig. 4: Changes in GHG emission reductions by policy※ Since “Improvement in system electric power” is outside the scope of measures taken bya region, it was included from the scope of study of roadmap.

11

Vision of sustainable Shiga

For each policy, based on the assumed administrative capital required for implementing the actions,practicable timing and benefits of implementation, we developed and applied the method (refer page 22 onwards

Table 4: Basket of actions assumed to be implemented up to 2030 and implementation status in 2020
Policies

Actions for reducing GHG

City in harmony-with-green
space

Maintenance of parks and roadside trees
Greening non-public lands
Greening rooftops and walls

Developing ventilation path

Measures ※Reduction reductions(kt-CO 2) and situation
which should be achieve in 2030
57

(Household) heat insulation level in houses(Commercial) heat insulation level in commercial Air conditioning demand of 90% buildings would have reducedbuildings

10
10
10

Promotion of heat-insulating structure(Household) heat insulation level in houses
houses with next generation heat insulation level(Commercial) heat insulation level in commercial 90%
90% commercial buildings would be energy-saving buildings
buildings

29

Promotion of passive houses(Household) Passive solar heating, others(Industrial) Others

79

Extended to 10% of houses
Subtotal

Transportation/distribution gently connecting people and objects to environment

Further use of bus service
Installation of LRT(Light Rail Transit)

141(Passenger transport) Usage of public
transportation

Share of public transportation (bus, train, LRT) increased from 25% to 37%
Share of bicycles/walking increased from 6% to 16%
Share of passenger cars reduced from 66% to 45%

Further use of Park and Ride

144
127

Lifestyle changing with
“Mottainai”

Further use of bicycles(Passenger transport) Increased usage ofbicycles and increased reliance on walking

Compact City

(Passenger transport) Compact city

Shortening of average transferring distance by 25% in regional zone

(Passenger transport) Improving the mileage of
automobiles, others(Freight transport) Others(Passenger transport) Improving the mileage of
automobiles, others(Freight transport) Others

Average mileage of passenger cars increased 1.6 times

Switching to transportation by train(Freight transport) modal shift, others

Shifting 50% of truck transportation between distant prefecture totransportation by train

99

Switching to transportation by ship

(Freight transport) modal shift, others

Shifting 10% of inter-prefectural truck transportation to transportation by
ship

99

Shortening the transporting distance throughrationalization of distribution(Freight transport) Rationalization oftransportation

Reduction of transportation volume per gross output by 30%

51

Promotion of energy-saving products(Household) Energy efficiency of equipments,
HEMS, others

Subtotal
Overall 30% average improvement in equipment efficiency, penetration of
HEMS in 90% of houses

Reducing waste from houses(Others) Waste recycling

Recycle rate of plastic has increased 36%

24

Energy-saving behavior on houses(Household) Energy-saving behavior

Practiced at almost all the houses

156

Promotion of super-small /electric /hybrid cars
Permation of environment-frienly driving

127

215

656
281

Subtotal

2,067
655

835

Industry growing along with environment
Energy produced by nature

Improving energy efficiency of aguricultural
production
Promoting consumption of agricultural products
in season(Industry) Energy efficiency of equipments,
switch-over in share of fuels
Improving energy efficiency of specified
entrepreneur
Improving energy efficiency of designatedentrepreneur(Commercial) Energy efficiency of equipments,
Promotion of energy-saving equipments
BEMS, others

Overall 36% average improvement in equipment efficiency, penetration of
BEMS in buildings at 90%

265

Reducing waste from business places(Others) Waste recycling

Recycling rate of plastic has improved 36%

24

Improving energy efficiency of medium andsmall enterprises(Commercial) Energy efficiency of equipment,
BEMS, energy conservation behavior

Overall 36% average improvement in equipment efficiency, penetration of
BEMS in building at 90%, energy-saving behavior practiced at almost all
business establishments
Subtotal

2,326

Promotion of BDF(Bio-Diesel Fuel)(Passenger transport) Bio mass fuel(Freight transport) Biomass fuel10% of internal combustion fuels is biomass fuel268

Utilization of photovoltaic energy/solar heat
energy on houses(Household) Solar power generation facility, solar Penetration of solar power generation in 20% of houses
heaterPenetration of solar heater in 20% of houses

43
28% average improvement in energy efficiency for all business
Fuel share (natural gas: from 8.6% to 25.9%, oil: from 55.5% to 39.4%,
coal: from 4.9% to 0.9%, electricity: from 30.9% to 33.7%)(Commercial) Solar power generation facility,
othersUtilization of small hydroelectric plant on
business places(Commercial) others

308

153

Utilization of small hydroelectric plant on houses (Household) others
Utilization of photovoltaic energy/solar heat
energy on business places

43
821
821

1
Installation of solar power plant in 15% of buildings
Installation of solar heater in 10% of buildings

23
0.05
Subtotal

Forest development
supporting Biwa Lakeand lifestyle

Promotion of "made in shiga" wood

(Others) Forest management

Appropriate management of man-made forests, construction of wooden
houses in the prefecture

Utilization of wood biomass energy on houses(Household) Biomass heating

Penetration of wood-burning stoves and pellet stoves in 10% of households

Utilization of wood biomass energy on business (Commercial) Biomass heating
placesPenetration of wood-burning stoves and pellet stoves in 10% of businessestablishments
Subtotal
Total※ Among the measures shown in “Table 3: GHG reduction measures assuming various implementation scenarios” on Page 8, items corresponding to each action

12

193
127

Further use of public transportation

445
477
44
19
540
6,407

Related actions(required processes corresponding to individual actions)
Revising the city plan, Making a manual of ventilation path

Making a promotion strategy of heat-insulating structure

Related actions: 100% completed
Developing ventilation path:Around 50% completed
Related actions: 100% completed
Maintenance of parks and roadside trees:Around 50% completed
100% completed

29

51%

5
5
10

51%
51%
100%

Related actions: 100% completed
Promotion of heat-insulating structure:Extended to around 50% of houses

17

60%

1

1%

actions: 100% completed
Building an experimental passive house, Making a manual of passive houses, Building a model Related
Promotion of passive houses:Not implemented (Promotion to start in full swing
house with passive designfrom 2021)
Subtotal
Improvement of the timetable, Integrated information system regarding public transportation, The 100% completed
electronic pay system, Improving the convenience of terminals
Promotion of environment-friendly transportation, Review of bus routes, Giving precedence to100% completed
public bus
Promotion of environment-friendly transportation, Consider a plan of LRT,
Making a detailed design of LRT:100% completed Acquisition of building
Promotion of environment-friendly transportation, Consider a plan of LRT, Making a detailed
sites for LRT:Around 40% completed Building a railroad of LRT, Installation
design of LRT, Acquisition of building sites for LRT, Building a railroad of LRTof LRT:Not implemented
Promotion of environment-friendly transportation, Consider a plan of Park and Ride, Acquisition 100% completedof building sites for car parks, Maintenance of car parks
Plan for promoting utilization of bicycles, Maintenance of cycling roads, Rental cycle station /maintenance station, Subsidy for motor-assisted bicycles, Maintenance of bicycle parking area, 100% completed
Running trains/buses practicable of carrying bicycles, Restricting the entry of cars into city area
Revising the land-use plan/the city plan, Adoption plan of community currency,
Circulation of community currency, Restricting opening of large suburban
Revising the land-use plan/the city plan, Leading policy of land use, Maintenance of public
facilities, Adoption plan of community currency，Circulation of community currency, Restricting shopping malls, Revitalizing existing shopping streets:100% completed
Leading policy of land use, Maintenance of public facilities, Compact
opening of large suburban shopping malls,Revitalizing existing shopping streets
City:Around 60% completed
Acquisition of constructing sites for charging stations，Constructing charging stations for electricvehicle, Planning subsidy for electric vehicle, Implementing the subsidy for electric vehicle, Eco- 100% completedfriendly cars promotion campaign
Operating a campaign for environment-friendly driving

100% completed

Consider a plan of freight stations, Detailed design of freight stations, Acquisition of building sites 100% completed
for freight stations, Improvement of freight stations
Consider a plan of transportation by ship, Detailed design of freight
Consider a plan of transportation by ship, Detailed design of freight ports, Acquisition of building ports:100% completed Acquisition of building sites for freight ports:Around
70% completed Improvement of freight ports, Switching to transportation bysites for freight ports, Improvement of freight ports
ship:Not implemented
Planning land/lake transportation system:Around 70% completed Constructing
Planning land/lake transportation system, Constructing land/lake transportation footholdland/lake transportation foothold, Shortening the transporting distance throughrationalization of distribution:Not implemented
Subtotal
Adoption of eco point system, Promotion of energy-saving products through eco point system, 100% completed
Nurture a energy-saving consultant
Improvement of recycling facilities, Standardization of recycled product, Promotion of green
100% completed
purchasing
Visualization of environmental-friendly actions (Miru Eco Ohmi), Environmental experience
program in Lake Biwa ("Umi no ko(children of lake)"), Forest environmental experience program("Yama no ko(children of forest)"), Improving experiment and research /providing information,
100% completedPlan for promoting environmental learning, Developing leaders of experience seminar,
Experience seminar by Lake Biwa Museum, Agricultural experience program, Operating"Environmental Learning Support Center"
Subtotal
Reducing the use of pump-up irrigation system, Importation of low-cost and labor saving
100%
completedtechnology
Promoting production of agricultural products in season, Promoting marketing of agricultural
100% completed
products in season

66

34%

127

100%

141

100%

0

0%

127

100%

127

100%

131

61%

656

100%

281

100%

99

100%

0

0%

0

0%

1,689

82%

655

100%

24

100%

156

100%

835

100%

43

100%

43

100%

Operating specified entrepreneur system

100% completed

821

100%

Supporting acquisition of ISO14000s, Supporting NPOs promoting "eco-acthion 21"

100% completed

821

100%

Adoption of ESCO

100% completed

265

100%

Promotion of green purchasing, Promoting recycling of waste, Adoption of recycled productcertification system

100% completed

24

100%

278

90%

Related actions: 100% completed
Improving energy efficiency of medium and small enterprises:Around 90%
completed
Subtotal

2,295

99%

Constructing collection system of waste cooking oil, Operating production facilities of BDF,
Increasing rape-plant acreage，Establishing a sales network of BDF

100% completed

268

100%

Subsidy for solar water heater, Subsidy for solar power generation system

100% completed

153

100%

Examination on good land for small hydroelectric plant, Technical development on smallhydroelectric plant, Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants

Examination on good land for small hydroelectric plant, Technical development
on small hydroelectric plant:100% completed, Subsidy for small hydroelectric
plants, Utilization of small hydroelectric plant on houses:Not implemented

00%

Subsidy for solar power generation system/solar water heater

100% completed

23

100%

0.02

41%

444

100%

84

18%

44

100%

19

100%

147
5,477

27%
85%

Supporting acquisition of ISO14000s, Supporting NPOs promoting "eco-acthion 21"

Examination on good land for small hydroelectric plant, Technical development on smallhydroelectric plant, Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants

Examination on good land for small hydroelectric plant, Technical development
on small hydroelectric plant:100% completed, Subsidy for small hydroelectric
plants, Utilization of small hydroelectric plant on business places:Around 40%
completed
SubtotalStandardization of "made in shiga" wood, Maintenance of export routes/the circulation foothold, Related actions:100% completed Promotion of "made in shiga" wood
Adequate forestry management, Establishing production system of "made in shiga" wood,:Around 20% completedExpansion of lumber mills
New Energy Introduction Strategy Plan, Technical development for utilizing wood biomass,
Subsidy for wood-burning stove and pellet stove, Enlightment on forest preservation, Utilization 100% completedof the Lake Biwa forest development residence tax, Supporting forest presevation by enterprises
Subsidy for utilization of wood biomass on business places

100% completed
Subtotal
Total

13

Vision of sustainable Shiga

Drawing up a greening policy guideline

Progress of
reductions('20/'30)

Progress of actions required to be implemented and
GHG reductions(kt-CO 2) achieved at 2020

Industry
growing along with environment＜ System diagram of actions ＞
It systematizes the actions for each of six policies. Actions mentioned from the top up to third stage will

Improving energy
efficiency of
aguricultural
production

directly lead to GHG reductions. Actions mentioned below that do not directly result in GHG reductions, butthey are necessary for smooth implementation of actions mentioned above.

Improvingenergyefficiency of
manufacturing

Improving energy
efficiency ofoffices and stores

Improving energy
Promoting
Improving energy Improving energy
efficiency of
consumption ofefficiency ofefficiency of
aguricultural
agriculturaldesignatedspecifiedproduction
products in season entrepreneur
entrepreneur

Lifestyle

Utilization ofnatural energy
on houses

Promotion ofenergy-saving
products

Utilization of
Utilization of wood Utilization of small
photovoltaic
energy/solar heat biomass energy hydroelectric planton houses
on houses
energy on houses

Promotion ofenergy-saving
products througheco point system
Adoption of eco
point system

Installation ofsolar power
generation
system without
subsidy
Installation ofsolar power
generation
system using
subsidy
Subsidy forsolar power
generation
systemInstallation ofsolar power
generation
system using
subsidy

Promotingproduction ofagricultural
products inseasonSupporting NPOs
promoting"eco-acthion 21"

Reducing
waste fromhousesSupporting
acquisition of
ISO14000s

Supporting
forestpresevation byenterprises
Lake Biwa
forestdevelopment
residence tax

Subsidy for smallhydroelectric
plantsPromotion of
green
purchasing

Technical
development on
small
hydroelectric
plantStandardizationof recycled
product

Enlightment on
forestpreservation

Examination on
good land for
smallhydroelectric
plant

Subsidy forwood-burning
stove and pellet
stove

Improvement ofrecyclingfacilities

Further use of
publictransportation

Further useof busservice

Installation of
LRT(Light
Rail Transit)

Further use of
Givingpublicprecedence totransportation
public bus
through
improvementof the
Review of bus
convenienceroutesof terminals
Improving theconvenience
Promotion ofof terminals
environment-fri
endly
Further use oftransportation
publictransportation
throughelectronic pay
systemThe electronic pay
systemFurther use of
public transportation
through integrated
information system
Integrated
information system
regarding public
transportation
Further use of bus
service throughimprovement of thetimetable
Improvement of thetimetable

Further useof Park andRide

Further use of
bicyclesCompact CityCity
in harmony-with-green space

Building arailroad of LRT

Maintenanceof car parks

Restricting theentry of cars
into city area

Acquisition ofbuilding sites
for LRT

Acquisition ofbuilding sites
for car parks

Runningtrains/buses
practicable ofcarrying bicycles

Making adetailed designof LRT

Consider a planof Park andRideConsider aplan of LRT

Promotion ofenvironment-fri
endlytransportation

Promotion ofenvironment-fri
endlytransportation

Agricultural experience
program

Improving
air-conditioning
efficiency ofbuildings

Improving heatcondition of
the city

Experience seminar by Lake
Biwa Museum
Developing leaders ofexperience seminar
Plan for promoting
environmental learning
Improving experiment andresearch /providing
information
Forest environmental
experience program("Yama no ko(children offorest)")Environmental experience
program in Lake Biwa ("Umino ko(children of lake)")
Visualization ofenvironmental-friendly
actions (Miru Eco Ohmi)

Developing
ventilation
pathGreening
non-public
lands

Maintenanceof parks androadside trees

Making amanual ofventilation path

Drawing up agreening policy
guideline

Greening
rooftops andwalls

Drawing up agreening policy
guideline

Promotion ofheat-insulating
structure

Drawing up agreening policy
guideline

Revising thecity plan

Energy-saving
behavior ontransportation

Promotionof BDF(Bio-Diesel
Fuel)

Permation ofenvironment-fri
enly driving

Eco-friendly
cars promotion
campaign

Establishing asales networkof BDF

Restricting
opening oflarge suburban
shopping malls

Implementing thesubsidy forelectric vehicle

Maintenanceof bicycle
parking area

Circulation ofcommunity
currency

Subsidy for
motor-assisted
bicycles

Adoption planof community
currency

Rental cycle
station/maintenancestation

Maintenanceof public
facilities

Maintenance of
cycling roads
Plan forpromotingutilization of
bicyclesRevising theland-useplan/the city plan

Supporting
acquisition of
ISO14000s

Subsidy for
utilization ofwood biomass
on businessplaces

Subsidy for smallhydroelectric
plantsTechnical
development on
small
hydroelectricplant
Examination on
good land for
smallhydroelectric
plant

Carbon fixationby using "madein shiga"wood

Utilization ofnatural energy
on houses

Utilization ofnatural energy on
business places

Carbon fixationby using "madein shiga" wood

Promotion of"made in shiga"
wood

Utilization of woodbiomass energy onhousesUtilization of woodbiomass energy on
business places

Promotion ofpassivehousesMaking a
promotion
strategy ofheat-insulating
structure

Establishingproduction
system of"made in shiga"
wood

Expansion of
lumber mills

Building a model
house with passive
designMaking a manual of
passive houses

Establishingproduction
system of"made in shiga"
wood

Building anexperimentalpassive house

Adequate
forestry
management

Adequate
forestry
management
Maintenance ofexportroutes/thecirculation
footholdStandardizationof "made inshiga" wood

Switching totransportation
by trainOperating a
campaign forenvironment-fri
endly driving

Switching totransportationby ship

Subsidy for
utilization ofwood biomass
on businessplacesEnlightment on
forestpreservation
Subsidy forwood-burning
stove and pellet
stove
Technical
development for
utilizing woodbiomass
New Energy
Introduction
Strategy Planproduced by nature
Shortening thetransporting distancethrough rationalization of
distribution

Improvementof freight ports

Increasing
rape-plantacreageAcquisition ofbuilding sites
for freightstations

Acquisition ofbuilding sites
for freight ports

Planning subsidy
for electricvehicleOperatingproduction
facilities of BDF

Detailed
design of
freight stations

Constructing
charging stations
for electricvehicleConstructing
collection
system ofwaste cooking
oilConsider aplan of freightstations

Supporting
forestpresevation byenterprises
Utilization of theLake Biwa
forestdevelopment
residence tax

EnergySwitching totransportation bytrain/ship

Improvementof freightstations

Acquisition of
constructing sites
for charging
stations

Expansion of
lumber mills

Promotion ofusing "made inshiga" wood

Maintenance ofexportroutes/thecirculation
footholdStandardizationof "made inshiga" wood

Revitalizing
existing
shopping
streets

Leading policyof land use

Promotingrecycling ofwaste

Subsidy forsolar power
generation
system/solar
water heater

Operating "Environmental
Learning Support Center"

Switching toeco-friendly
cars

Promotion ofsuper-small/electric/hybrid cars

Supporting NPOs
promoting"eco-acthion 21"

ForestTransportation / distribution

Shortening thetransferring distancein regional zone

Adoption ofrecycled productcertification
systemPromotion of
green
purchasing

gently connecting people and objects to environment

Modal shift tobyciclesUtilization of
Utilization of wood Utilization of small
photovoltaic
biomass energy hydroelectric plant
energy/solar heaton businesson business places
energy on businessplacesplacesdevelopment supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle

Energy-saving
behavior on
housesNew Energy
Introduction
Strategy Plan

Modal shift tobus/LRT/railroadtransport

Adoption of
ESCO

Energyconservation
on daily life

Technical
development for
utilizing woodbiomass

Subsidy forsolar water
heaterReducing theuse of pump-up
irrigation system

Operatingspecifiedentrepreneur
system

Improving energy
efficiency of
medium andsmall enterprises

Detailed
design of
freight ports

Constructing
land/laketransportation
foothold
Planning
land/laketransportation
systemConsider a planof transportationby ship

Prospering
regional economy

Promotion of
BDF(Bio-Diesel
Fuel)

Utilization of
Utilization of wood Utilization of small Utilization of photovoltaic Utilization of wood Utilization of small
photovoltaic
biomass energyhydroelectric plantheat energy
energy/solar heat biomass energy hydroelectric plant energy/solar
on businesson business placeson business placeson houses
on houses
energy on houses
placesEstablishing asales networkof BDF

Society in whichhappiness can be
actually felt

Utilization ofnatural energy
on businessplacesUtilization ofnatural energy
on houses

Switching toeco-friendly
cars

Increasing
rape-plantacreage
Operatingproduction
facilities of
BDF
Constructing
collection
system ofwaste cooking
oilInstallation ofsolar power
generation
system without
subsidy
Installation ofsolar power
generation
system using
subsidy
Subsidy forsolar power
generation
systemInstallation ofsolar power
generation
system using
subsidy
Subsidy forsolar water
heaterSupporting
forestpresevation byenterprises
Utilization of theLake Biwa
forestdevelopment
residence tax
Enlightment on
forestpreservation
Subsidy forwood-burning
stove and pellet
stove
Technical
development for
utilizing woodbiomass
New Energy
Introduction
Strategy Plan

Subsidy for smallhydroelectric
plantsTechnical
development on
small
hydroelectricplant
Examination on
good land for
smallhydroelectric
plant

Subsidy forsolar power
generation
system/solar
water heater

Subsidy for
utilization ofwood biomass
on businessplaces

Subsidy for smallhydroelectric
plantsTechnical
development on
small
hydroelectricplant
Examination on
good land for
smallhydroelectricplant

A roadmap towards
sustainable society

Promotion ofenergy-saving
products throughenergy-saving
consultant
Nurture aenergy-saving
consultant

Promotingmarketing ofagricultural
products inseason50% reduction in
GHG emissionschanging with “Mottainai”

Improvingmachinery efficiency
on houses

Importation of
low-cost andlabor saving
technology

Reducing
waste frombusinessplacesPromotion ofenergy-saving
equipments

Utilization ofnatural energy
on businessplacesEnergyconservation
on businessplacesCityin harmony-with-green space
Main actions◎ Maintenance of parks and roadside trees◎ Promotion of passive houses etc.
In addition to parks and streets, thermal
environment will be moderated by developing
cities with ample greenery all over the places suchas land for non-public use such as car parks andfloor and walls of buildings, and also by developing“ventilation path.” Since this will call for significant
revisions in urban planning, actions should betaken in parallel with “Compact city” etc. describedlater. Therefore, it will take time till the launch of
projects, and actual actions will be completed byaround 2025. However, greening of rooftops andwalls can be started early, which may result insome amount of benefits.
Apart from greening of floors and walls,buildings would changeover to super-insulated specifications. Since the renewal of building will take time, it isnecessary to make a promotion strategy at the earliest. This also applies to passive design houses; however, itis necessary to build an experimental house or a model house prior to promotion. Actual promotion will start after
2021.
Since these actions require large change in urban structure, GHG reductions in 2020 for the entire policy
would be 34% of the target year (2030).

Revising the city plan
Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030,
unit is kt-CO2)

Making a manual of ventilation path
57

Developing ventilation path
Drawing up a greening policy guideline
Greening rooftops and walls

10

Maintenance of parks and roadside trees

10

Improving heat conditionof the city

108

Improving air-conditioning
efficiency of buildings

10

Greening non-public lands
Making a promotion strategyof heat-insulating structure
Promotion of heat-insulating structure

29
Reductions in “carbon fixationby using “Made in Shiga” wood” isrecorded in “Forest development
supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle.”

Building an experimental passive house
Making a manual of passive houses
Building a model house with passive design
Promotion of passive houses

79(Standardization of "made in shiga" wood)(Maintenance of export routes/thecirculation foothold)(Adequate forestry management)(Establishing production system
of "made in shiga" wood)(Expansion of lumber mills)

How to read a chart
Implementation periodof actions
period which continue
with a finished action(Promotion of using "made in shiga" wood )

2010

16

86

2015

2020

2025

2030

Transportation/distribution
gentry connecting people and objects to environment
Main actions◎ Expansion of the use of public transportation◎ Compact city
◎ Switching to transportation by ships etc.
In order to depart away from automobiles
Improvement of the timetable
Further use of bus service throughimprovement of the timetable
Integrated information system
regarding public transportation
Further use of public transportation
through integrated information system
The electronic pay system
Further use of public transportation
through electronic pay system
Improving the convenienceof terminals
Further use of public transportation throughimprovement of the convenience of terminals
Promotion of environment-friendly
transportation
Review of bus routes

32

dependent passenger transportation, actions for

32

increasing the convenience of public transportation will
be implemented gradually. Actions would be quickly

32
32

implemented if the focus is around existing public
transportation and general targets would be achievedby 2020. However, since new mode of transportation

Giving precedence to public bus
141

Further use of bus service

such as LRT would need some time, their introduction

Consider a plan of LRT

would be in the final phase of targeted period. Actions

Making a detailed design of LRT

for promotion the use of bicycle would also be
implemented in conjunction with public transportation.

Building a railroad of LRT
Installation of LRT(Light Rail Transit)

144

In addition, compact city will be formed byConsider a plan of Park and Ride
Acquisition of building sites
for car parks
Maintenance of car parks

rejuvenating the local economy by spreading the use
127

Further use of Park and Ride
Plan for promoting utilizationof bicycles
Maintenance of cycling roadsof land and community money. However, this will be along term action and it will be completed in 2025.

Rental cycle station /maintenance station

Regarding automobiles, by quickly spreading

Subsidy for motor-assisted bicycles
Maintenance of bicycle parking area
Running trains/buses practicableof carrying bicycles
Restricting the entry of cars
into city area
Further use of bicycles
Revising the land-use plan/thecity plan
Leading policy of land use

ecodrive and by building recharge facilities for127electric vehicles and by providing subsidies, targeted
improvement in mileage would be achieved in 2020,
when the cycle of replacement by new purchase

Maintenance of public facilities

would be almost over.

Adoption plan of community currency
Circulation of community currency
Restricting opening of large
suburban shopping malls
Revitalizing existing shopping streets

Freight transportation would use railway or
215

Compact City
Acquisition of constructing sites
for charging stations
Constructing charging stations
for electric vehicle
Planning subsidy for electric vehicle
Implementing the subsidy
for electric vehicle
Eco-friendly cars promotion campaign
Promotion of super-small /electric /hybrid cars
(Constructing collection systemof waste cooking oil)(Operating production facilities of BDF)

ships in Lake Biwa. Enhancement of logistics would
be achieved by smoothly connected land and lake;
however, the project will start only after 2022.
By modal shift and proactive switching to656

ecologically friendly cars, GHG reductions in 2020
for the entire policy would reach 82% of that of target(Increasing rape-plant acreage)

year.

(Establishing a sales network of BDF)
(Promotion of BDF(Bio-Diesel Fuel))
Operating a campaign
for environment-friendly driving
Permation of environment-frienly
driving
Consider a plan of freight stations

281

Detailed design of freight stations
Acquisition of building sites
for freight stations
Improvement of freight stations

Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030, unit is kt-CO2)

538

Modal shift to bus/LRT/railroad transport

127

Modal shift to bycicles

215

Shortening the transferring distancein regional zone656

Switching to eco-friendly cars(except as BDF)

281

Energy-saving behavior on transportation249

Switching to transportation by train/ship99

Switching to transportation by train
Consider a plan of transportationby ship
Detailed design of freight ports
Acquisition of building sites
for freight ports
Improvement of freight ports

99

Switching to transportation by ship
Planning land/lake transportation
systemConstructing land/lake transportation
foothold
Shortening the transporting distancethrough rationalization of distribution

51

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bio-diesel fuel (BDF) related reductions included in“switching to eco-friendly cars” are recorded in
2030 “Energy produced by nature.”

17

A roadmap towards
sustainable society

Acquisition of building sites for LRT

Lifestylechanging with “Mottainai”

Main actions◎ Promotion of energy-saving products
through energy-saving consultant◎ Energy conservation on houses etc.

Apart from using the ecopoint system which has already been implemented, energy-saving consultants tooffer appropriate advice about energy-efficient products would also be nurtured. Because of the efforts of suchconsultants, all the equipments in a house would be changed to energy-efficient products by 2010. Moreover, bysetting up a waste recycling facility within the prefecture at the earliest, target of household waste reduction would
also be achieved around the same by standardization and promotion of green purchasing. Action for increasing
every individual’s consciousness towards environment would be undertaken mainly around children education, as
they will play important role in society in 2030.
Environmental consciousness in people would certainly increase due to various opportunities available forlearning about local environment such as agricultural experience program and experience seminar by Lake Biwa
museum, in addition to environmental experience program in Lake Biwa ("Umi no ko(children of lake)") and forest
environmental experience
program ("Yama no ko(children

Adoption of eco point system
Promotion of energy-saving products througheco point system
Nurture a energy-saving consultant

328

Promotion of energy-saving products throughenergy-saving consultant(Subsidy for solar water heater)(Installation of solar power generation systemusing subsidy)(Subsidy for solar power generation system)(Installation of solar power generation systemusing subsidy)(Installation of solar power generation system
without subsidy)(New energy introduction strategy plan)(Technical development for utilizing woodbiomass)(Subsidy for wood-burning stove and pellet
stove)(Enlightment on forest preservation)328

of forest)").
In addition, by the spreadof visualization of environment
friendly behavior, households
will adopt energy-efficient
lifestyle with low environment
burden. Therefore, energyefficient behavior will bepracticed by all household
around 2017.

(Lake Biwa forest development residence tax)

Once the awareness(Supporting forest presevation by enterprises)(Utilization of wood biomass energy onhouses)(Examination on good land for smallhydroelectric plant)(Technical development on small hydroelectric
plant)(Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants)(Utilization of small hydroelectric plant onhouses)
Improvement of recycling facilities

of energy-conservation has
increased in people to a certain
extent, GHG reduction of thetargeted year can be achievedby 2020.

Standardization of recycled productPromotion of green purchasing

Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030, unit is
kt-CO2)24

Reducing waste from houses
Visualization of environmental-friendly actions(Miru Eco Ohmi)
Environmental experience program in Lake
Biwa ("Umi no ko(children of lake)")
Forest environmental experience program("Yama no ko(children of forest)")Improving experiment and research /providing
information
Plan for promoting environmental learning

655

Improving machinery efficiency
on houses

180

Energy conservation on daily
life

Developing leaders of experience seminar
Agricultural experience program
Experience seminar by Lake Biwa Museum
Operating "Environmental Learning Support
Center"Energy-saving behavior on houses

156
2010

18

2015

2020

2025

2030

Reduction effects of “utilization ofnatural energy on houses” have beenrecorded in “Forest development
supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle” and“Energy produced by nature.”Industry
growing along with environment
Main Actions◎ Promotion consumption of agricultural
products in season◎ Promotion of energy saving equipments etc.
Energy efficiency in agriculture can improveat early stages by going back to agriculture which
is very close to conventional style of agriculture by
reducing the use of pump-up irrigation system andbringing seasonal variation in production.
Facility upgrade in industrial sector or atbusiness establishments will take long time; byquickly creating a system that encourages the
GHG reductions and acquisition of ESCO andISO14000s, energy efficiency will improve by 2020
up to target level across most of the industries.
If a system that supports the environment-friendly actions of companies is put in place as soon as possible, it
is possible to achieve 99% of targeted GHG reductions by 2020 itself.

Reducing the use of pump-up irrigation
systemImportation of low-cost and labor saving
technology
Improving energy efficiency of aguricultural
production
Promoting production of agricultural products
in season
Promoting marketing of agricultural products
in season
Promoting consumption of agricultural
products in season
Operating specified entrepreneur system
Improving energy efficiency of specified
entrepreneur
Supporting acquisition of ISO14000s

43

43

821

Supporting NPOs promoting "eco-acthion 21"
Improving energy efficiency of designatedentrepreneur
Adoption of ESCO

821

Promotion of energy-saving equipments

265

Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030, unit is
kt-CO2)

Promotion of green purchasing
Promoting recycling of waste
Adoption of recycled product certification
systemReducing waste from business places86

24

Improving energy efficiency of
aguricultural production

Improving energy efficiency of1643 manufacturing

Supporting acquisition of ISO14000s
Supporting NPOs promoting "eco-acthion 21"
Improving energy efficiency of medium andsmall enterprises(Subsidy for solar power generation
system/solar water heater)(Utilization of photovoltaic energy/solar heat
energy on business places)(Subsidy for utilization of wood biomass on
business places)(Utilization of wood biomass energy on
business places)(Examination on good land for smallhydroelectric plant)(Technical development on small hydroelectric
plant)(Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants)(Utilization of small hydroelectric plant on
business places)

308

265

Improving energy efficiency ofoffices and stores

332

Energy-saving behavior
on business places

Reductions achieved due to “Utilization ofnatural energy in agriculture and at
business places” are recorded in “Energy
produced by nature” and “Forest
development supporting Lake Biwa andlifestyle.”
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

19

A roadmap towards
sustainable society

submission of plans and reports concerning

Energyproduced by nature

Main Actions◎ Promotion of BDF◎ Installation of solar power generation systemusing subsidy etc.

Production system of BDF can be smoothly constructed by using already available measures such as
expanding the collection of waste cooking oil, which has already started in pockets, and using idle fields as
rapeseed fields. In addition, BDF supply system can be adequately established around 2017 by setting up sales
and distribution network.
Regarding the use of solar energy, although a certain level of expansion can be seen at present stage,
number of installation targeted by 2020 would be achieved by providing subsidy for solar power generation
system/solar water heater
Regarding small hydroelectric plants, actual penetration will be between the later half of 2010 and the first halfof 2020, as surveys for land suitability must be extensively done at first and there may be a scope for technicalimprovements when it needs to be incorporated with system electric power.
By actively deploying policies concerning natural energy, it is possible to achieve almost 100% of GHG
reductions target set for 2020.
Constructing collection system of waste
cooking oil
Operating production facilities of BDF
Increasing rape-plant acreage
Establishing a sales network of BDF
268

Promotion of BDF
Subsidy for solar water heater
Installation of solar power generation systemusing subsidy
Subsidy for solar power generation system
Installation of solar power generation systemusing subsidy
Installation of solar power generation system
without subsidy(New energy introduction strategy plan)(Technical development for utilizing woodbiomass)(Subsidy for wood-burning stove and pellet
stove)(Enlightment on forest preservation)(Utilization of the Lake Biwa forest
development residence tax)
(Supporting forest presevation by enterprises)(Utilization of wood biomass energy onhouses)Examination on good land for smallhydroelectric plantTechnical development on small hydroelectric
plant
Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants
Utilization of small hydroelectric plant onhouses
Subsidy for solar power generation
system/solar water heater
Utilization of photovoltaic energy/solar heat
energy on business places(Subsidy for utilization of wood biomass on
business places)(Utilization of wood biomass energy on
business places)
Examination on good land for smallhydroelectric plantTechnical development on small hydroelectric
plant
Subsidy for small hydroelectric plants
Utilization of small hydroelectric plant on
business places

41

99
13

Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030, unit is
kt-CO2)

Switching to eco-friendly cars
(promotion of BDF)

1

154

Utilization of natural energy onhouses (except wood biomass)

23

23

0.05
2010

20

268

2015

2020

2025

2030

Utilization of natural energy on
business places and agriculture(except wood biomass)

Reductions achieved from woodbiomass in “utilization of natural energy
in houses” and “Utilization of naturalenergy in agriculture and at businessplaces” is recorded in “Forest
development supporting Lake Biwa andlifestyle.”

Forest development
supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle
Main actions◎ Promotion of using “Made in Shiga” wood
◎ Utilization of wood biomass energy on houses etc.

For forest development, it is imperative to
use locally available wood as natural resource.
For promoting healthy production activities inforest industry, in addition to the standardizationof "Made in Shiga" wood, production structure
required for using building materials and forest
environment congenial to education, work andtransportation and distribution hub, must be
promotion of "Made in Shiga" wood around 2020
is 20% of that of the target year.
At the same time, use of wood biomassenergy can be spread to common households
and business establishments from relatively earlystages by actively using the thinned wood generated during forestry management. Penetration target of woodburning stove and pallet stove could be achieved around 2017 by using Lake Biwa forest development residence
tax as a funding source for forestry management and by actively supporting forest preservation activities oforganizations.
However, since carbon fixation effects due to increased use of "Made in Shiga" wood are large, total GHG
reductions in 2020 for all the policies would only reach 27% of the target year.

Standardization of "made in shiga" wood
Maintenance of export routes/the circulation
foothold
Adequate forestry management
Establishing production system of "made inshiga" wood
Expansion of lumber mills
Promotion of "made in shiga" wood477

New energy introduction strategy plan
Technical development for utilizing woodbiomass
Subsidy for wood-burning stove and pellet
stove
Enlightment on forest preservation
Utilization of the Lake Biwa forest
development residence tax
Supporting forest presevation by enterprises

Policy-wise reduction effects(figures are reductions in 2030, unit is
kt-CO2)

44

Utilization of wood biomass energy on houses
Subsidy for utilization of wood biomass on
business places
Utilization of wood biomass energy

19
2010

2015

2020

2025

477

Carbon fixation by using "madein shiga"wood44

Utilization of natural energy onhouses (wood biomass)

19

Utilization of natural energy on
business places and agriculture(wood biomass)

2030

21

A roadmap towards
sustainable society

gradually streamlined. Therefore, target forResearch Methodology
Overview of research methodology

Stage 1 Definning the target

The backcasting method is defined as "calculating backto the present from a specific target point." This is done "todetermine the potential for future physical implementationof that target and the type of measures that will be needed
to arrive at that point" (Robinson,1990). This process canbe divided into two stages: envisioning of the target point,and calculating backward from that point (in other words,
searching for a pathway to arrive at that target point). Fig. 5
shows a conceptual diagram of the backcasting method.

(1) Establish a framework

When attempting to achieve an objective such as asustainable society which requires a major transformation ofsociety, it is very likely that the objective cannot be achievedby starting from the present state and extending techniquesthat can be implemented. For this reason, first a normativeenvisioned scenario of the situation in which the target has
been achieved is drawn out, without being constrained bycurrent and past trends. This is used as the target point thatmust be reached, and one works back from that point to thepresent location to determine the path that must be taken.
This method makes it possible to depict what a certain region
would look like as a sustainable society, and also enables
study of what must be done now in order to ultimately arriveat that target.

Before conducting a quantitative analysis, create aqualitative picture of the future society, including such factors
as lifestyle patterns, industry, land use and so on. The
following are some of the methods that can be used to do
this.

The backcasting approach itself is not particularly aunique methodology. This method of calculating backward issomething that we used on a daily basis. What needs to be
specifically identified here is; how this approach should beapplied to a practical, quantitative and comprehensive problem
that involves the whole society, such as the achievementof a sustainable society. For this reason, the backcasting
method is developed as a practical method of application.
This method involves dividing the process into two stages as
noted above and constructing estimation tools (models) toprovide the quantitative data needed at each stage, and thenapplying these models in the form of computer programs to
Shiga prefecture. The Roadmap described in this report is theresult of the application of this method.

First, determine the framework for creating the overallsustainable society scenario. This involves determining thetarget region, reference year, target year, target activities,
environmental targets, number of scenarios and so on. The
target year should be far enough in the future to achieve
the necessary changes but close enough that it can beenvisioned by people in the region.

(2) Envision the socioeconomic situation (scenario creation)-Existing concepts, plans and targets in each field for that
region- Interviews with influential persons, workshops etc.
- Simple extension of the present situation or freezing it inplace- Documents and plans relating to the future of the country
or even larger region
A method that will be as meaningful as possible forsubsequent policy deployment, considering the actual
policymaking process, should be selected. Ultimately, theenvisioning of the socioeconomic situation serves only as apremise for the achievement of a sustainable society. Basedon this perspective, for the purposes of this study it was
decided not to go into the methods used to envision specificsocioeconomic situations (for example, the growth rate for acertain industry).

(3) Quantify the envisioned socioeconomic situation
Establish the indicators that will serve as the input values
for estimating the society of the future based on the situation
envisioned in (2). Here exogenous variables or parameters
are entered as values for the ExSS model. The envisioned
socioeconomic factors that are thought to have a particularly(1) Establish
a framework

Predictive future

Present

1. Paint a picture of the societythat is the future goal

(2) Envision thesocioeconomic
situation(4) Collect direct
measures(3) Quantify the envisioned
socioeconomic situation(5) Establish the direct
measures for thetarget year(6) Identify estimatesand direct measures

Future target
2. Calculate back to the present
from the future target and specify
a roadmap to it

Time

Fig.5: Idea of backcasting

22

Yes

goal
achievement ?

No(7) Finalize the list of
direct measures

Fig.6: Flow of deffining the target

Labor productivity

Export by goods

Labor participation ratio
Demographic composition

Fixed capital formation
Goverment consumption
expenditure
Private consumption
expenditure
Input coefficientmatrixLabor dem and

Output byindustry

Wage
IO
analysis

Import ratio
Floor area per output
Energy service demand
per driving force

Taxation andsocial security

Population

IncomeConsumption
pattern
Householdsize

Consumption

Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturingindustry

Poupulation

Commercial
building
floor area

Freighttransport
demandPassenger
transport
demandNumber ofhousehold

Fuel share

Trip per person

Energy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
Carbon sink

Energy demand

Trip distance
Modal share
Freight generation
per output
Transport distance

Exogenous var iables
Par amet er s

Endogenous
var iables

CO2 emission

Modal share

Fig.7：
Fig.7：Calculation flow of ExSS (Extended Snapshot Tool)
great impact on greenhouse gas emissions are the economic
growth rate for the nation as a whole, the exports for eachindustry, the population distribution and the employment rate.

(4) Collect direct measures
Collect the direct measures that you think can
be introduced by the target year. In addition to energy
use technologies, these might include changes to thetransportation structure, renewable energy, energy-saving
practices, carbon sinks and so on.

(5) Establish the direct measures for the target year
Establish the number of direct measures collected in(4) to be introduced and determine technical coefficients(energy efficiency, etc.) relating to energy demand and CO2
emissions. Standards for determining the combination of
direct measures might include cost minimization, ease of
acceptance by stakeholders, technical achievability and so(6) Identify estimates and direct measures
Enter the exogenous variables and parameters
established in (3) and (5) and estimate the socioeconomic
indicators and greenhouse gas emissions. Socioeconomic
indicators include population, the added value of the region,
production for each industry, transport demand and so on. If
the target for greenhouse gas emissions has been achieved,
proceed to step (7). If not, return to step (5) and study the
number of direct measures to be introduced.

(7) Finalize the list of direct measures
Finalize the list of the direct measures whose introduction
is envisioned and the reduction in emissions for each direct
measure. This indicates the state of direct measures that will
become the final targets at the next stage. An example ofsuch a list is shown in Table 3 on page 8 of this brochure.
Fig. 7 shows the configuration of the ExSS model. The
figure shows seven blocks, the exogenous variables andparameters that are entered in each block, and the variables
that are transferred between blocks. The model is depicted

Stage 2 Searching for a roadmap
In the second stage of the process, a roadmap leading
to the society depicted in the scenario is established. The
basic approach is to determine what type of measures shouldbe implemented and when they should be implemented,
in order to arrive at the dissemination rate for the direct
measures in the target society. It should be recognized that
achieving the dissemination rate for the direct measures inthe targeted society will be no easy task. For this reason, thegovernment must formulate a plan and implement measuresin accordance with that plan in order to encourage thedissemination of direct measures. For example, a program
which provides subsidy for the purchase of ecologicallyfriendly vehicles in order to encourage the dissemination ofsuch vehicles could be introduced.
In this stage, measures are established to disseminate
the direct measures identified in the first stage, and theperiod of time needed for implementation of each measure
in order to achieve the low carbon targets is calculated. It isalso in this stage that the emissions reductions for each direct
measure identified in the ExSS model are allocated to themeasures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

(1) Establish measures
First, establish the measures which are needed todisseminate the direct measures envisioned for the targetedsociety. To establish measures, first think of possible barriers
to the dissemination of the direct measures, and propose ameasure to remove those barriers wherever they are present.

23

Research methodologyon.

as a simultaneous equations system that determines aunique solution based on the given exogenous variables
and parameters. The figure focuses only on CO2 emissions
from energy consumption, but it can also be used to handle
other greenhouse gases and other environmental load (forexample, atmospheric pollutants).

Effect of measure
i in the target year

Effect of othermeasureGHG emissions
reduction by measure iin the target year

Year tEffect ofmeasure i
Earliest starting
year of measure i
Shortest
implemented
period of measure i

Resource needed
to continue
measure i

Resource needed
to implement
measure i

Resource formeasure i

Exogenous
variables
parameters
Endogenous
variables

GHG emissions
reduction

Resource needed
Upper limit of
to continue measure i
resource in year twhen 100% implemented

Resource needed to
implement measurei 100%

Fig.8: BCT calculation flow

Next, determine whether there will be any barriers to theimplementation of that measure. Repeat this process until all
barriers have been removed. If there is already a short-termplan in the target region, you may also refer to the measuresin that plan.

(2) Define the requirements for measures
Define the requirements for each of the measuresestablished in (1). The necessary requirements are as
follows.
- Direct reductions in GHG emissions: The GHG reductions
obtained through 100% implementation of the measure (ktCO2/year). Use the value estimated using the ExSS model- Effort needed to implement measure: The effort that must
be expended to begin 100% implementation of the measure(initial input).
- Effort needed to continue measure: The effort thatmust be expended each year in order to continue 100%
implementation of the measure.
- Integrated effect of measure implementation: Effects(relative value) of measure other than direct and indirect
reductions in GHG emissions during 100% implementation of
the measure.
- Shortest implementation period: The shortest time thought
necessary for 100% implementation of the measure.
- Earliest starting year: The earliest year in which measure
implementation can begin. Implementation of the measurecannot begin prior to this year.
- Necessary prior measure: Another measure whose 100%
implementation is needed prior to the implementation of acertain measure. For example, "sidewalk widening work" is anecessary pre-existing measure for "use of pedestrian transit
malls."- Necessary parallel measure: Another measure neededfor 100% implementation of a certain measure. The more
effective the parallel measure is, the greater the effectivenessof the measure in question will be. For example, "subsidy
program for purchase of environmentally friendly vehicles”
is a parallel measure for "dissemination of environmentallyfriendly vehicles."24

An upper limit is also established for the total amount ofeffort that can be expended each year. The team conducted
these values and established values that are thought to beappropriate at this point in time.

(3) Prepare a schedule for implementation of measures
Based on the exogenous variables and parameters
established in (1) and (2), calculate the period of time needed
for implementation of each measure, using the backcasting
tool (BCT). The BCT establishes the difference between total
effectiveness and total effort as a target function and uses
mixed integer programming (MIP) to maximize this value. Fig.
8 shows the structure of a BCT.

(4) Propose a roadmap
The BCT calculates the period of time needed for
implementation of all of the envisioned measures in order
to arrive at the target society in the future, based on alimited amount of expendable effort. Moreover, by also
incorporating benefits other than reductions in greenhousegas emissions that result from the measures, it is able totake into consideration the priority of each measure for the
local government. This makes it possible to propose thisroadmap to serve as a foundation when the local government
prepares actual medium- and long-term plans aimed at theachievement of a low carbon society.

Statistical data and actions
For understanding the current status of CO2 emissions
and calibration of ExSS, large amount of socioeconomic dataand energy consumption/supply data would be required. Data
collection is relatively easy at prefectural and city government
level; however, to understand the regional characteristics
for various regions or municipalities in Shiga prefecture,
it is necessary to breakdown the data with indigenous
process. On the basis of statistical data shown in Table 5,
this committee prepared interindustry table, trade table andenergy balance table for the entire Shiga prefecture as well
as for eight regions in the prefecture.
Moreover, while listing up the necessary action priorTable 5: List of statistical data used as reference
Statistic/Document

Application and reference data

National Census

Population, number of households, preparation of OD table for the purpose of commuting to school and work

Industrial Statistics Survey

Number of business establishments, shipment amount of products

Shiga prefecture industrial table

Transaction master table, import index, breakdown of final demand, self-sufficiency ratio etc.

Economic calculations for residents of Main table (Production, expense, allotment), social burden on household budgets, receipt of social insurance, otherShigaearnings
Passenger Traffic Survey for Kyoto, Osaka Preparation of OD chart based on the number of trips (Segment: Male/female, age, holding the driving license or not,and Kobetransportation means, starting point, destination, purpose), occupation, and number of business trips and leisure trips
Baseline research on logistics in Kyoto,
Preparation of OD chart based on transportation volumes in ton
Osaka and Kobe
Annual Report of Energy Production,
Amount of consumption of petroleum fuels in the prefecture (preparation of energy balance table)
DemandLP-Gas Annual Report Facts & Figures

Amount of consumption of LP gas in the prefecture (preparation of energy balance table)

Annual Report on Japanese Gas Industry Amount of city gas consumption (preparation of energy balance table)
Statistics of Agricultural Production

Gross production of agriculture (preparation of energy balance table)

Annual Statistics of Fishery and
Gross fishery production (preparation of energy balance table)aquaculture
The structural survey of oil consumption

Amount of industry-wise and fuel-wise consumption (preparation of energy balance table)

Annual report of construction statistics

Floor area under construction (preparation of energy balance table)

Annual report of family income and Purchase volume of LP gas per household, purchase volume of heating oil per household (preparation of energy
expenditure survey
balance table)
Annual statistics of automobiles exports

Vehicle-wise fuel usage (preparation of energy balance table)

Railway transportation statistics

Usage of electricity and diesel by railways (preparation of energy balance table)

Shiga prefecture statistics

Actual demand for electric light and power, industry-wise power demand, demand for urban gas, monthly figuresof number of persons using ships for various shipping routs, number of cars in each city and town, mining andmanufacturing index (preparation of energy balance table)

Table 6: Outline of Tertiary Shiga Prefecture Comprehensive Environment Plan (Draft)
Theme

Specific Actions

Environmental learning program in Lake Biwa (“Umi no ko (children of lake)”), forest environmental
Nurturing people and raising children towards theexperience program (“Yama no ko (children of forest)”), agricultural experience program, opportunities
construction of sustainable Shigafor experiencing and learning through various means such as museums, promotion of eco-tourism etc.
Supporting the residents of prefecture, regional associations, NPO etc who are engaged inenvironment conservation, organizing Lake Biwa environment business messe, supporting promotional
associations such as Eco Action 21, PR activities of environment friendly agriculture, expanding
Building the infrastructure for constructing
self-sufficiency of "Made in Shiga" fodder, maintaining transportation systems by combining publicsustainable Shiga society
transportation and Lake Biwa transportation, establishing stable supply system of "Made in Shiga"
wood, practicing energy-saving behavior and environment-friendly behavior in prefectural office,supporting the cities and towns which are working towards realization of low carbon society etc.

Natural environment

Support to various regional activity groups, information dissemination regarding prefecture residence
tax for lake Biwa forest regeneration etc.

Scenic, historical environment

Supporting the activities of local residents for maintaining the landscape, such as preservation of
traditional agricultural methods and facilities.

Water and soil environment

Maintenance of forests for disaster prevention and water recharge function

Comfortable environment of air, Maintaining transportation systems by combining public transportation and Lake Biwa transportation
chemicals and other substances
etc.
Recycling of waste and resources

Publicity of certified products (Biwa Cool Eco Products) as per Shiga prefecture recycled products
certification system etc.

to the application of backcasting tool, for the current
environmental actions taking place in Shiga, we referred
to “Third Shiga Prefecture Comprehensive Environment
Plan (draft).” This is a based plan of environmental actions
to be taken by the prefecture between the planning periodof 2009 and 2013. It described the direction of actions forachieving “Regeneration of Biwa Lake Environment” and“Realization of Low Carbon Society,” which are set as targets
in “Social Vision of Sustainable Shiga” prepared in 2008. Of
this, actions related to “Realization of Low Carbon Society”
were incorporated and taken as a start line for drawing theroadmap in this brochure. Main activities mentioned in thisplan are provided in Table 6.

【Reference Literature】
Robinson,J.,B. : Futures under glass A resipe for people who
hate to predict, Futures, pp820-842, 1990.
Gomi Kei, Kouji Shimada, Yuzuru Matsuoka : A low-carbon
scenario creation method for a local-scale economy andits application in Kyoto, EnergyPolicy(2009),doi:10.1016/
j.enpol.2009.07.026

25

Research methodology

Environmental actions in various fields

Measures against global warming“Shiga ecology/economy project”, promotion of “Miru Eco Ohmi”, enlightment and information drives
at regional level by the members of anti-global warming activities promotion group, promotion of
appropriate forest manage such as thinning, disseminating CO2 reduction practical examples to small
and medium scale industries, installation support to households for solar power generation facility,
conversion of official vehicles in prefecture to electric cars etc.

Table 7: Input-output table of shiga prefecture in 2000 (Unit：million yen)
Production byindustry

ExportFinal demand

Total ofendogenous
sectorOthers

Personal service

Business
service

Transport,
communication
and broadcasting

Public service

Finance,insurance andreal estate

Wholesale andretail trade

Utility

Construction

Other
manufacturingand mining

Machinery

Steel and metal

Cement, soil,stone andceramics

Chemistry, oil,coal products

Pulp, paper andprinting

Textiles andwood products

Food products
and beverages

Agriculture,
forestry andfishing
Agriculture, forestry andfishing

10,45025,362

6,994

0

1,091

7

5

0

4,054

1,938

0

82

0

0

1,935

2

6,170

0

58,09036,998-5,35989,729

Food products andbeverages

4,142

55,010

554

270

2,420

76

1

0

220

0

0

71

0

0

6,142

0

47,822

12

116,740

284,208

63,785

464,733

Textiles and wood
products

367

865

46,530

708

2,022

2,770

2,303

9,437

6,837

48,461

350

2,630

1,519

2,628

6,762

959

3,303

803

139,254

72,901

33,710245,865

Pulp, paper and printing

748

10,324

3,712

47,77014,304

12,863

3,266

20,095

4,380

5,050

598

8,138

6,786

5,371

30,914

3,768

3,894

8,740

190,721

19,419-28,099

182,041

Chemistry, oil, coalproducts

6,576

16,82324,036

12,355300,971

23,536

9,889

85,02046,85324,323

4,880

2,844

1,427

37,56359,878

2,228

5,304

3,098

667,604

70,182

229,110

966,896

Cement, soil, stone andceramics

150

2,250

1,546

190

6,699

19,361

2,414

20,950815

58,728

223

230

34

17

1,370

343

1,187

399

116,906-33

287,657

404,530

Steel and metal

129

17,427

9,245

258

7,908

6,411

151,003

236,531

11,378

101,648

132

1,174

197

1,101

1,805

466

1,016

708

548,537

8,227-41,039515,725

Machinery

18

64

415

65

2,373

1,664

3,207

921,991

652

16,764

393

694

61

3,316

10,69622,893437

1,104

986,807949,315 1,337,247

3,273,369

Other manufacturingand mining

192

1,381

2,459

747

6,870

20,405

8,994

27,815

8,529

13,960

4,910

507

46

956

7,798

3,902

1,974

2,664

114,10976,28644,439234,834

Construction

448

721

713

929

5,111

3,834

5,423

7,980

524

2,245

3,946

3,173

31,2495,282

14,349

1,012

3,063

0

90,002

847,5940

937,596

Utility

491

5,158

4,474

3,543

22,964

17,87913,51135,470

4,402

6,234

7,046

8,728

2,841

9,502

38,242

1,939

18,036736

201,196

78,797-178,228

101,765

Wholesale and retail
trade

3,622

24,44815,03810,06744,147

14,48822,871

152,924

13,29560,437

1,897

6,163

2,113

14,801

34,435

8,175

26,711

5,774

461,406

481,860-402,320

540,946

Finance, insurance andreal estate

3,998

3,311

7,482

4,173

13,82011,566

10,91837,158

5,329

13,6301,816

36,74961,02534,212

24,455

14,405

17,362

11,817313,226

710,970-53,155

971,041

Transport,
communication andbroadcasting

3,823

11,229

8,555

6,534

24,647

15,862

17,121

55,63018,517

59,1604,275

33,767

14,64550,25841,865

8,485

17,475

4,761

396,609

218,502-83,244531,867

Public service

16

2,773

2,224

518

49,355

17,836

6,903

156,724

4,238

3,391

756

1,210

979

3,968

7,784

1,064

1,619

9,042

270,400 1,020,156

19,8581,310,414

Business service

1,581

17,306

7,672

7,307

46,23520,302

20,481

119,568

8,223

74,4797,733

35,18950,32874,06376,01528,623

16,526

2,797

614,428

82,589-424,870

272,147

Personal service

11

82

63

55

202

94

107

641

42

478

54

896

577

1,598

7,678

823

7,618

606

21,625

577,706-126,984

472,347

Others

600

2,517

2,533

1,260

4,812

2,053

4,991

16,829

1,845

4,082

913

4,362

5,780

2,748

7,163

1,809

2,598

16

66,911326

1,027

68,264

Total of endogenous
sector37,362

197,051

144,245

96,749555,951

191,007283,408 1,904,763

140,133

495,008

39,922

146,607

179,607247,384

379,286

100,896

182,11553,077 5,374,571 5,536,003

673,535

11,584,109

Total of gross value
added sector

52,367

267,682

101,620

85,292410,945

213,523

232,317 1,368,606

94,701

442,588

61,843394,339

791,434

284,483

931,128

171,251

290,232

15,187

Production by industry

89,729464,733

245,865

182,041

966,896404,530

515,725 3,273,369

234,834 9378 ,596

101,765

540,946

971,041

531,867 1,310,414

272,147

472,347

68,264

Personal service

OthersTable 8: Input-output table of shiga prefecture in 2030 (Unit：million yen)

207

2,264

70

1

0

197

0

0

84

0

0

38,779

547

1,705

2,399

2,084

8,534

6,047

96,903

437

3,096

2,637

4,437

6,037

12,535042,072

14,984228

5,200

Productions byindustry

495

951

0

Export

53,750

3,908

Final demand

1,021

Total ofendogenous
sector00

Business
service05,283

Public service

97

Transport,
communication
and broadcasting0

Finance,insurance andreal estate

2,036

Wholesale andretail trade

3,626

Utility0Construction

4

Other
manufacturingand mining

Machinery6

Steel and metal

2,172

Cement, soil,stone andceramics

24,513

Textiles and wood
products

Chemistry, oil,coal products

22,871

Pulp, paper andprinting

61,845

Food products andbeverages

Textiles andwood products

Food products
and beverages

Agriculture,
forestry andfishing
Agriculture, forestry andfishing

106,736

69,855354,444531,035

18

136,205

222,336

88,496447,037

1,143

192,282

65,622-59,512

198,3910

Pulp, paper and printing

4,427

8,854

2,779

36,29012,260

11,133

2,594

16,179

3,620

4,984

550

8,421

10,353

8,845

49,393

747

5,422

9,587

196,437

15,742-69,069

143,110Chemistry, oil, coalproducts

38,692

16,301

20,465

9,636

253,617

19,166

8,040

76,78140,781

24,752

5,555

3,217

2,169

49,580117,966

516

8,662

4,308

700,204

52,672

84,766

837,642

Cement, soil, stone andceramics

888

2,029

1,073

146

5,843

10,2262,141

18,913729

47,771

288

271

40

26

2,534

81

1,402

585

94,986

2,719

196,808

294,513

Steel and metal

763

15,715

6,290

205

7,082

3,497

137,809206,796

10,02474,767

152

1,382

228

1,716

3,705

111

1,237

1,051

472,531

10,890-13,305

470,116

Machinery

107

507

343

368

2,095

1,642

3,101

822,635606

17,712

544

1,165

804

5,467

24,213

5,475

1,087

1,488

889,358 1,067,638

970,0072,927,003

Other manufacturingand mining

1,136

1,528

1,972

575

5,257

11,842

7,883

24,024

7,524

14,669

3,937

597

86

1,864

14,628

926

3,283

3,588

105,32273,362

21,444200,128

Construction

2,651

684

551

719

4,393

1,862

4,964

7,124

401

2,359

4,137

3,735

34,675

9,472

26,476

240

5,322

0

109,765

875,4390985,204

Utility

2,357

4,627

3,081

2,278

16,307

12,007

9,761

25,963

3,072

5,637

6,550

6,665

3,168

11,76450,383294

18,810971

183,693

67,908-135,301

116,300

Wholesale and retailtrade21,43623,363

12,002

7,859

37,612

10,17520,820136,147

11,74863,506

2,167

7,255

3,522

23,10968,405

1,940

27,605

7,823

486,493

678,447-528,162

636,778

Finance, insurance andreal estate

23,661

3,624

6,190

3,289

12,095

7,861

10,00832,7994,262

14,322

1,923

43,25985,437

61,10847,272

3,418

25,627

17,583

403,739872,335

25,1791,301,252

Transport,
communication andbroadcasting

22,625

11,873

6,903

5,858

21,974

8,519

15,89250,89813,90262,3895,136

40,56027,872103,925

89,741

2,116

25,967

8,435

524,588266,867

210,955

1,002,410
2,513,486

Public service

95

2,549

1,855

402

45,08814,884

6,282

142,128

3,777

3,563

781

1,424

1,751

9,030

15,577252

2,818

13,454

265,710 2,026,001

221,774

Business service

9,357

15,723

6,119

5,747

40,95815,566

18,731

106,858

7,027

78,261

9,339

41,42385,615133,041

147,256

6,791

26,234

4,162

758,208

110,677-804,319

64,567

Personal service

65

118

52

44

174

68

98

571

35

502

68

1,055

802

3,793

15,700195

13,087902

37,329824,256-193,868

667,7164,541

2377,905

3,551

2,319

2,052

997

4,195

1,452

14,672

1,493

4,289

1,084

5,135

8,890

5,332

13,885

429

3,566

411

20,24898,564

Total of endogenous
sector220,341

187,387

116,282

75,167473,941

132,376

254,753 1,691,022

118,872

518,423

42,649168,839

268,048432,509718,563

23,759223,439

75,123 5,741,491 7,303,177

390,583

13,435,251

Total of gross value
added sector

310,694

259,651

82,11067,943363,701

162,137

215,363 1,235,981

81,256

466,781

73,650467,938 1,033,205

569,901 1,794,923

40,808444,277

23,441

Production by industry

531,035

447,037

198,391

143,110

837,642

294,513

470,116 2,927,003

200,128

985,204

116,300

636,778 1,301,252 1,002,410 2,513,486

64,567

667,716

98,564

Others26

Table 10: Energy consumption oftransportation sector (Unit: ktoe)

Table 9: Energy consumption of household and business oprrations (Unit：ktoe)
HouseholdNatural Biomass Solar
gas

Oil
2000
CoolingHeating
Hot water
KitchenHome
electronic
Total
2030BaU
CoolingHeating
Hot water
KitchenHome
electronic
Private power
generation
Total
2030 withmeasures
CoolingHeating
Hot water
KitchenHome
electronic
Private power
generation
Total

Electric
power

Total

Business oprrations
Natural Biomass Solar Electric
gas
power

Oil

0
21
46
12

0
0
0
0

0
0
9
0

11
34
10
11

11
137
140
33

2
56
48
0

3
7
27
29

0
0
0
0

0
0
5
0

26
15
0
0

32
78
80
29

0

0

0

0

174

174

0

0

0

0

147

147

167

79

0

9

240

496

106

66

0

5

189

366

0
97
90
11

0
25
54
15

0
0
0
0

0
0
11
0

13
40
12
13

13
163
167
40

2
64
54
0

4
8
30
33

0
0
0
0

0
0
6
0

30
17
0
0

36
89
90
33

0

0

0

0

238

238

0

0

0

0

167

167

94

0

14

-5

9

25

310

628

120

75

0

6

214

Electric
power

Solar

Total

2000

0
82
76
10

199

Natural Biomass
gas

Oil
Total

Railway(passenger)
Bus
Car(passenger)
Motorcycle
Railway(freight)
Truck(freight)
Others(freight)
Total
2030 BaU
Railway(passenger)
Bus
Car(passenger)
Motorcycle
Railway(freight)
Truck(freight)
Others(freight)
Total
2030 withmeasures
Railway(passenger)
Bus
Car(passenger)
Motorcycle
Railway(freight)
Truck(freight)
Others(freight)
Total

415

0
14
17
3

0
28
17
8

0
12
7
2

1
13
16
0

3
17
3
11

5
84
59
24

0
8
6
0

3
15
11
19

0
6
0
2

2
7
5
0

8
9
4
1

13
46
26
22

0

0

0

2

129

130

0

0

0

0

101

101

52

-20

32

11

-4

34

52

21

32

164

303

14

49

9

24

119

208

0

0

0

0

40

40

16

0

0

0

0

16

540

0

0

0

0

540

3

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

1

1

380

0

0

0

0

380

5

0

0

0

0

5

944

0

0

0

41

985

0

0

0

0

47

47

18

0

0

0

0

18

945

0

0

0

0

945

5

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

1

1

315

0

0

0

0

315

5

0

0

0

0

5

1,288

0

0

0

47

1,336

0

0

0

0

54

54

9

0

1

0

0

10

279

0

35

0

0

315

2

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

12

12

134

0

18

0

0

151

4

0

0

0

0

4

428

0

54

0

66

548

Table 11: Energy consumption of industry sector (Unit: ktoe)
2000
coal

Oil

Total

coal

2030 with measures

Natural Biomass Electric
gas
power

Oil

Total

coal

Natural Biomass Electric
gas
power

Oil

Total

0

56

0

0

4

61

0

334

0

0

27

361

0

175

0

0

19

194

0
0

3
4

0
0

0
0

1
1

4
4

0
0

17
2

0
0

0
0

9
0

25
2

0
0

11
1

0
1

0
0

10
0

22
2

0

55

15

0

17

86

0

50

13

0

15

78

0

20

33

0

13

66

8
0
0
0
56

66
46
61
123
0

19
0
20
10
0

0
0
0
0
0

21
13
20
96
9

115
59
101
229
64

7
0
0
0
0

59
35
57
98
0

17
0
19
8
0

0
0
0
0
0

19
10
19
77
0

103
45
95
184
0

3
0
0
0
0

24
15
43
72
0

44
16
14
6
0

0
0
0
0
0

17
9
16
68
0

88
40
74
146
0

23

380

41

3

126

572

21

351

38

3

116

528

7

102

139

2

102

352

3
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
97

60
35
40
46
34
2
18
54
1,082

1
4
1
33
20
0
2
0
167

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3

30
30
49
116
41
3
23
2
602

94
68
91
195
101
6
42
56
1,951

3
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
37

52
33
33
43
29
2
16
57
1,267

1
4
1
32
18
0
2
0
152

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3

26
28
41
110
35
3
20
2
556

81
64
75
185
87
5
38
59
2,015

1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
13

15
10
10
8
8
0
5
51
571

18
15
14
41
27
1
8
0
376

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2

23
24
36
97
31
2
18
3
488

56
50
59
145
68
4
31
53
1,450

27

Research methodology

Agriculture andforestry
Fishery
MiningFood products andbeverages
TextilesPaper, pulp
Chemistry
Plastic products
CementCeramics, soil and
stone
Metal
Steel products
Machinery
Electric machineTransport machinery
precision machinery
Other manufacturing
Construction
Total

2030 BaU

Natural Biomass Electric
gas
power

A Roadmap for Sustainable Shiga Towards 2030
Published in November, 2009
Edited and Released byRoadmap Committee,
Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team
Inquiry
Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute5-34 Yanagasaki, Otsu, Shiga 520-0022 JAPANTEL: +81-77+81-77-526-4802-526-4802 FAX: +81-77-526-4803
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