• Click to edit Master text styles— Second level• Third level• Fourth level• Fifth level
David Sandalow, Colin McCormick, Alp Kucukelbir, Julio Friedmann,Trishna Nagrani, Zhiyuan Fan, Antoine Halff, Alexandre d'Aspremont,Ruben Glatt, Elena Méndez Leal, Kevin Karl, Alex Ruane

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ICEF AI FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ROADMAP• Click to edit Master text styles

Topic:— Second level• HOW
CAN AI HELP REDUCE EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES?
• Third level• Fourth level• Fifth level(Not:••How can AI help adapt to climate change?
On balance, will AI help or hinder the fight against climate change?)

Send comments to ICEF2023Roadmap@gmail.com by October 312

ICEF AI FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ROADMAPPART I: BACKGROUND• Clickto edit Master text styles—Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Secondlevel TO CLIMATE CHANGE——Chapter
2. INTRODUCTION

Third level
PART II:•HIGH-POTENTIALOPPORTUNITIES• Fourth— Chapter
3. GHG level
EMISSIONS MONITORINGlevel— Chapter•4.Fifth
POWERGRID— Chapter 5. MANUFACTURING— Chapter 6. MATERIALS INNOVATION— Chapter 7. FOOD SYSTEMS— Chapter 8. ROAD TRANSPORTPART III: CROSS-CUTTING TOPICS— Chapter 9. BARRIERS— Chapter 10. RISKS— Chapter 11. POLICY— Chapter 12. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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• Click to edit Master text styles— Second level• Third level• Fourth level• Fifth level

Part I: BACKGROUND

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Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION TO AI▪

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the science of making•computers
Click toedit Master text styles
perform complex tasks— Second level▪

• Thirdlevel learning (ML) to detect
AI relieson machine
Fourthlevelpatterns• fromlargedatasets• Fifth level▪

AI differs from traditional software— Instead of relying on explicit programming,
AI replies on historical data and simulation
to “train” models and “learn” patterns

5Chapter 2: INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE• Atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases arenow
higher tothanedit
any timein humantexthistory.
• ClickMasterstyles— Second level• In terms of global average temperatures:• Third level▪ July 6,
the warmest day ever recorded• 2023
Fourthwaslevel▪ July 2023
waslevelthe warmest month ever recorded• Fifth▪ The warmest 9 years ever recorded were the last 9 years• This summer’s heat waves, drought, fires and floods are all consistent
with scientists’ predictions of the impacts of climate change.

6• Click to edit Master text styles— Second level• Third level

Part II:
HIGH-POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES• Fourth level• Fifth level

7Chapter 3: GHG EMISSIONS MONITORING
AI is helping to significantly improve information onsourcesof greenhouse(GHG) emissions.
• Clickto editgasMastertext styles▪

Analyzing vast amounts of data from earth— Second level
observation satellites, airplanes, drones,• Thirdlevel the Internet of things, social
land-based
monitors,• Fourth
media andother leveltechnologies• Fifth levelimportant in improving methane
AI has been particularly
emissions monitoring.
▪

Processing data from methane sensors at scale▪

Combining input from multiple satellites and othertypes of sensors

AI is also being used to better understand sources of CO2
emissions.

Japanese IBUKI-2 GHG monitoring satellite▪ AI algorithms can be trained to survey the world’s
vegetation at high spatial resolution.
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Chapter 4: POWER GRID
• AI is becoming an essential part of power grid infrastructure.

• Clickto edit Mastertextgridstyles• AI canmake decarbonizationof the power
cheaper,
faster and smoother, helping with:— Second level▪ predictions,Third level▪ scenario• generation,• Fourth▪ optimization,and level▪ system planningandlevel
integration.
• Fifth• AI can help in all parts of the power grid, including:▪ generation,▪ transmission and distribution▪ end use, and▪ energy storage.

• Barriers include:▪ lack of well-developed models, and▪ lack of trained personnel.

• Using AI in real-time operations creates security and safetyrisks.
9Chapter 6: MATERIALS INNOVATION
▪
▪

▪

▪

High-performance materials are essential
decarbonization•forClickto edit Master text styles
Historically, new materials were discovered by— Second level
accident or exhaustive, expensive experiments• Thirdlightlevelbulb).
(e.g. Edison’s
Fourth level
In recent• decades,it has become possible to• Fifth predictlevel whether new materials willcomputationallyhave useful properties - but it is slow.
AI can dramatically accelerate this capability▪

screen millions of possible materials for important
properties,▪

dramatically accelerate materials experiments,
synthesize published research, and▪

generate new materials concepts

10• Click to edit Master text styles— Second level• Third level• Fourth level• Fifth level

Part III: CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES

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Chapter 9: BARRIERS• Click to edit Master text styles
Five groupsof barriers
impede the use of AI for climate— Secondlevelchange mitigation:• Third level• Fourth level• data • Fifth level• people• computation• cost• institutions

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Chapter 10: RISKS• Click to edit Master text styles

Risks from AI can include:— Second level▪ bias,• Thirdlevel▪ invasionsof privacy,• Fourth▪ securitythreats,level• Fifthandlevel▪ safety issues,▪ increased greenhouse emissions.

These risks exist when using AI for climatechange mitigation.

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Chapter 10D: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROMCOMPUTING OPERATIONS FOR AI▪ Currently modest—less than 1% of the global total
andlikely muchless than1% of theglobalstyles
total.
• Clickto edit
Mastertext— Second level▪ Future•GHGemissions
Thirdlevel are very uncertain—couldbe even more modest or could be substantial.
• Fourth level
Depends on:• Fifth level— processes used to manufacture AI equipment— energy efficiency of AI equipment— optimization techniques in AI models— use of zero carbon electricity in AI operations,and— demand for AI applications.
▪ Much better data collection and assessment
methodologies are needed14

Chapter 11: POLICY
Government
withMaster
respect to AI
are styles• Click policies
to edittext
evolving rapidly, addressing topics including— Secondlevelbias, privacy,security,safety and job• Third level
displacement.
• Fourth level• FifthVery few policies
thatlevel
specifically address theuse of AI for climate.

We explore two broad categories:▪ policies that promote the use of AI forclimate change mitigation, and▪ policies that manage risks related to the useof AI for climate change mitigation
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Chapter 12: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONSFINDINGS• Click to edit Master text styles— Secondlevel
1. Artificial
intelligenceis currently contributing to climate change
mitigation
andlevel
has the potential to make significant additional• Thirdcontributionsin theyears ahead.
• Fourthlevel
2. Artificial intelligence• Fifth levelis not a panacea when it comes toclimate change.
3. The lack of trained personnel and lack of high-quality data are
critical barriers to the use of AI for climate mitigation.
[and five more]

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Chapter 12: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS• Click to edit Master text styles

1. AI tools
should belevel
integrated into many aspects of climate change— Secondmitigation.
• Third level
2. AI skills-development• Fourth levelshould be a priority in all institutions with arole in climate
mitigation.
• Fifthlevel

3. Governments should assist in the development and standardizationof data for AI applications that mitigate climate change.
4. All government agencies with responsibility for climate change
should create an AI Office.
[and four more]

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Chapter 12: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS• Click to edit Master text styles— Secondlevel be incentivized to deploy artificial
5. Electricutilities shouldintelligence,regulated returns for investments in AI and• Thirdwith
levelother tools.
• Fourth level6. Governments
should• Fifthlevellaunch international platforms to support
cooperative work on AI for climate change mitigation.
7. Governments should work to minimize greenhouse gas emissions
from AI’s computing infrastructure.
8. Avoiding unfair bias should be a core, high-priority principle
guiding the development of all AI tools for climatechange mitigation.

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INNOVATION ROADMAPPROJECT• Artificial
for Climate
ChangeMitigation• ClickIntelligenceto edit Mastertext
styles— draft for comment released today—sendSecond
levelto ICEF2023Roadmap@gmail.com by October 31—comments• Third level▪
▪

Low-Carbon
Ammonia• Fourthlevel (2022)• Fifthlevel
Blue Carbon(2022)▪

Carbon Mineralization (2021)▪

Biomass Carbon Removal & Storage (BiCRS) (2020)▪

Industrial Heat Decarbonization (2019)▪

Direct Air Capture (2018)▪

Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2.0 (2017)▪

Energy Storage Roadmap (2017)▪

Carbon Dioxide Utilization (2016)▪

Zero Energy Buildings (2016)▪

Solar And Storage (2015)19

• Click to edit Master text styles— Second level• Third level• Fourth level• Fifth level

David Sandalow, Colin McCormick,Alp Kucukelbir, Julio Friedmann,
Trishna Nagrani, Zhiyuan Fan,
Antoine Halff, Elena Méndez Leal,Ruben Glatt, Alexandre d'Aspremont20