Morning in Carbonville:
From Zero to 5 Gigatonsin 30 years
Dr. S. Julio Friedmann
Chief Scientist & Chief Carbon Wrangler
Credit Suisse Carbon Negative Conference 2.0Carbon Direct · September 16th 2022

Quick look at gigantic policychangesA focus on Scaling Multiple Technologies
In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions at an unprecedented scale, a diverse portfolio ofcarbon removal and utilization technologies are required to meet climate targets.

REMOVALUTILIZATIONManagedecosystems

with co-benefits
for people andnature

Hybrid andengineeredsolutions

Frontier
removaltechnologies

Afforestation/
Reforestation

BlueCarbon

Improved Forest
Peatland & Wetland
Management (IFM)
Restoration

SoilCarbon

CarbonUtilization
Technologies that convert CO2 into
useful products such as fuels,
building materials, and commodity

CarbonMineralization

Bioenergy with Carbon
Capture & Storage(BECCS)

BiocharDirect Air
Capture (DAC)

Ocean Alkalinity
Enhancement (OAE)

chemicals.

Point Source Capture
Machines with special chemicals
Novel Soil Tech

Green Tree Burial

Macroalgae
Cultivation

Advanced Plant
Cultivars

Engineered WoodProductsthat bind CO2 and remove it fromindustrial emissions sources.

345

The first megaton project: 2025
Carbon Engineering, 1point 5 & Occidental Petroleum
1,000,000 tons/year (CO2 enhanced oil recovery + saline storage)

The largest project announced: Bison

Carbon Capture & Frontier Carbon Solutions
5,000,000 tons/year (saline storage) in 2030

New companies, new processes, new tech
Heirloom• Passive air contacting• Dirt cheap (!) sorbents• Dumb tech, smart robots

Captura• Ocean-based separations• Electro-dialysis membrane• Also reduces ocean acidificationVerdox• Electrical swing adsorption• DAC + power + industrial• Three pilots in design

Biomass + CCS (BECCS) coming on strong
Inputs: wastes, residues, crops
Outputs: power, hydrogen, fuel & CO2

Source: Global CCS Institute, 20199

Biohydrogenamounts
ofremoveCO2. CO2
Biohydrogencan
canremoveprovidehuge
cleanenergy &Fan et al., 2021
Source: Global CCS Institute, 2021

Biomass can be used for carbon removal without energy production• Biochar from thermochemicalbiomass processing for soil improvements• Engineered wood products

for the construction market• Bio-liquid production

and direct injection tothe subsurface• Marine macroalgae

production and abyssal
dispatch• Biofiber entombment in concrete

12Carbon removal value of biomass may exceed its energy value● Biomass is half carbon. One
ton of biomass produces
1.8 tons of CO2.

● The value of this CO2
depends on thecarbon price.

● One ton of biomass(oven-dry) contains appr. 18
GJ of energy.

● This energy value is low

compared to the CO2 value
in many cases.

13

Pyrolysis – Charm bio-oil & bio-char
Pyrolysis – like coffee roasting• Heated without oxygen• Biomass restructures – can for char
• Yields liquids, heat, and fuelCharm• Produce bio-oil from pyrolysis• Dispose of bio-oil in deep well
• Use agriwastes as feedstocks

Biochar• Charcoal buried• No energy produced• Multi-hundred year durability

Chokepoints and challenges

The market is a mess
Renewable energy and avoided deforestation projects: 80%
Average prices remain low: $3-4/tCO2
unlikely to motivate significant abatement< 3% of credits on the market are CO2 removals.
The rest are avoided/reduced or mixed projects (13%)
A glut of old surplus of credits: ~7 years vintage
could absorb offset demand for several years
No accepted standards, protocols, or regulators

VCM is anticipated to grow significantly,
creating real opportunity for suppliers &other market makers
Sources:
Barbara Haya, Micah Elias, Ivy So. (2021, March 29). Voluntary Registry Offsets Database Pre-release Version, Berkeley Carbon Trading Project, Center for Environmental Public Policy, Universityof California, Berkeley. Retrieved from: https://gspp.berkeley.edu/faculty-and-impact/centers/cepp/projects/berkeley-carbon-trading-project/offsets-database
Eli Mitchell-Larson and Tim Bushman. (April 2021) Carbon Direct Commentary: Release of the Voluntary Registry Offsets Database – see here.

MSFT + CD: Criteria for high quality CDR
Additionality (with baselines)
Accounting methodology explained
Assess harms & benefits
Define and explain durability
Equity & justice assessed
Avoid leakage
Monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV)

Separating sense from nonsense
is a scientific challenge
Microsoft and Carbon Direct, 2022

Three big chokepoints
Human Capital – not enough people• Trades (e.g., specialty welders)• Project managers• Permitting, regulation, community engagement,communications….

Infrastructure• Power lines, renewable power• CO2 storage sites & transportation• Hydrogen pipelines, bunkering facilities

Projects & risk capital• Second valley of death• Project development capital (DOE helps)• Directly counter permitting risk

Much can be done today
and done well

There’s muchto doTalk smart• Learn. Talk to experts• Engage communities proactively – one mouth, two ears
• Seek political compromise nationally, locally, within sectors

Set standards

Tech, markets
and policy arechangingrapidly• Proto-protocols => protocols => standards• Work collaborative to keep good actors in market

Lean in• Invest in human capital development• Advocate for smart policy that removes tons
• Reimagine risk – new partners & business models

Ambition + humility + $$ = progress
Now is the time to invest and engage

Thank you
jfriedmann@carbon-direct.com