NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE DORIAN(AL052019)24 August – 7 September 2019
Lixion A. Avila, Stacy R. Stewart,
Robbie Berg, and Andrew B. Hagen
National Hurricane Center
20 April 2020

VIIRS-S-NPP SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE DORIAN AT 0703 UTC 2 SEPTEMBER 2019 SHOWING THE
WELL-DEFINED EYE OF THE CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER EASTERN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

Dorian was the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Bahamas in modern
records, resulting in numerous deaths and causing devastation on Great Abaco and Grand
Bahama Islands. Dorian also affected a large portion of the United States eastern seaboard
as a hurricane and reached Nova Scotia as a very strong post-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Dorian

2

Hurricane Dorian
24 AUGUST – 7 SEPTEMBER 2019

SYNOPTIC HISTORY
A large tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on 19 August. The wave moved
westward across the tropical Atlantic while losing most of its associated thunderstorm activity. On
22 August, however, a small area of convection with some signs of organization developed near
the axis of the wave along 40°W. Visible satellite animations during the day showed a cyclonic
circulation in the low clouds, suggesting that a small low pressure area had developed. The low
moved toward the west at about 10 kt, gaining convective organization despite the influence ofsoutheasterly deep tropospheric vertical wind shear of about 15 kt. It is estimated that the
disturbance became a tropical depression at 0600 UTC 24 August while centered about 700 n mi
east-southeast of Barbados in the Windward Islands. The “best track” chart of the tropical
cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 11.
Once the system became a tropical depression the cloud pattern became betterorganized. Microwave data showed the development of a curved convective band wrapping
around an eye-like feature in the mid-levels, and the system became Tropical Storm Dorian at
1800 UTC 24 August. After a few hours of that upward trend, the cyclone became surroundedby dry air, and the cloud pattern changed very little in organization during the next 24 h. On
25 August, the cloud pattern gained some organization and developed a central dense overcast(CDO), but by the time Dorian reached the Windward Islands early on 27 August, an Air Forcereconnaissance plane investigating the cyclone found that Dorian was not a very well-organized
cyclone, having peak winds of 45 kt. Continuous intrusions of dry air might have contributed to
the ragged structure of the cyclone during that period.
Dorian made landfall over Barbados as a very compact cyclone around 0130 UTC 27
August with 45-kt winds. It then moved across the remainder of the Windward Islands, with its
center passing directly over St. Lucia around 1100 UTC that day. The high mountains of thatisland disrupted the organization of the cyclone’s low-level circulation, and the center then reformed to the north. The re-formation process was noted in radar data from Martinique andGuadeloupe. After the re-formation, the system continued to move toward the west-northwest andnorthwest at about 10 kt. While convective banding features became established in the northernhalf of the circulation, the central surface pressure gradually dropped, and a partial eyewall
formed. Dorian was on an upward intensity trend and developed an inner core, becoming a 65kt hurricane while its center moved over the eastern tip of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands
around 1530 UTC. The center of the hurricane then moved across the western tip of St. Thomas
1

A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line at
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current year’s storms are located in the btk directory, while previous
years’ data are located in the archive directory.

Hurricane Dorian3in the U.S. Virgin Islands with 70-kt winds at 1800 UTC that day, and an eye was observed thenon satellite imagery.
A strengthening Dorian then moved into the Atlantic, away from the Virgin Islands andPuerto Rico, propelled northwestward by the flow between an upper-level low over the Straits ofFlorida and the Atlantic subtropical ridge. As the upper-low dropped southward and thesubtropical ridge expanded westward, the resulting steering flow forced Dorian to take a westnorthwest to west path through a region of low shear, abundant atmospheric moisture and over a
very warm ocean. These conditions favored significant strengthening, and Dorian became acategory 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at 1800 UTC 30 August while
centered about 385 n mi east of the northwestern Bahamas. After that time, the eye became
quite impressive in satellite images, surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, with theestimated surface winds reaching 115 kt at 0000 UTC 31 August. The rapid intensification
process continued, and the eye of 12 n mi in diameter became even more distinct, displaying a“stadium effect” sometimes observed in intense hurricanes. Dorian became a category 5
hurricane and then made landfall at Elbow Cay, Great Abaco, in the northwestern Bahamas (Fig.
4), at 1640 UTC 1 September with estimated winds of 160 kt and a minimum central pressure of
910 mb. Dorian was the strongest hurricane in modern records to make landfall in the Bahamas.
As the high pressure to the north of Dorian weakened, the steering currents collapsed,
and the hurricane moved very slowly westward, pounding Great Abaco for several hours with its
greatest fury. In fact, the island experienced at least tropical-storm-force winds for about 3 days.
The hurricane’s forward speed decreased even more, and Dorian began to crawl westward andwest-northwestward toward Grand Bahama Island. The eye made landfall near South Riding
Point on Grand Bahama near 0215 UTC 2 September with 155-kt winds. It exited along the northcoast of the island 6 h later (cover figure). By then, the eye became larger, and the winds had
decreased to 140 kt, likely due to the interaction with land and ocean cooling beneath the intense
hurricane.
A large mid-level trough over the eastern United States swung eastward, and contributed
to a flow pattern that favored Dorian turning north-northwestward and northward at about 5 to 10
kt. This kept the intense core of the hurricane east of Florida during the period from 3–5
September. The hurricane then weakened as it moved northward toward an environment of highshear and cooler waters. But, as its core moved over the Gulf Stream, Dorian re-strengthened
back to category 3 status offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Dorian’s large
eye passed directly over a NOAA buoy just offshore of the coast of South Carolina around 1600
UTC 5 September where a pressure of 959.2 mb was recorded (Fig. 5). Dorian continued its
northeastward motion, its eye passing near the Outer Banks of North Carolina for several hours
and making landfall over Cape Hatteras at 1230 UTC 6 September (Fig. 6) with 85-kt winds.
These category 2 winds occurred mostly over water in the eastern semicircle, and it is analyzed
that North Carolina experienced category 1 winds. After clearing the Outer Banks, the hurricane
accelerated northeastward, embedded within the mid-latitude flow.
Dorian became a strong post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC 7 September before it reached
Nova Scotia, Canada. The cyclone’s winds increased, and the circulation expanded due tobaroclinic effects. The broad central circulation of the post-tropical cyclone moved rapidly acrossSambro Creek, Nova Scotia, around 2200 UTC 7 September, bringing hurricane-force wind gusts
to a large portion of Atlantic Canada. Dorian then became fully extratropical over the Gulf of St.

Hurricane Dorian4

Lawrence at 0600 UTC 8 September and was finally absorbed by a larger extratropical low by
0600 UTC 9 September over the far northern Atlantic Ocean.

METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS
Observations in Dorian (Figs. 2 and 3) included subjective satellite-based Dvorak
technique intensity estimates from NOAA’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) andthe Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimatesfrom the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of WisconsinMadison. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites including the Advanced
Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), the European
Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful in constructing the best track of
Dorian. Aircraft observations include flight-level, stepped frequency microwave radiometer(SFMR), and dropwindsonde observations from 23 flights (including 103 center fixes) of the 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command and 16 missions(including 30 center fixes) from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters of the NOAA Aircraft Operations
Center (AOC). In addition, the NOAA AOC G-IV aircraft flew nine synoptic surveillance flights
around Dorian, collecting valuable data on the surrounding steering currents and otherenvironmental conditions.
Data from Météo-France radars on Guadeloupe and Martinique, international radars on
the Bahamas and other Caribbean islands, NOAA-National Weather Service WSR-88D radars
from San Juan, Puerto Rico, and along the United States east coast were extremely beneficial intracking Dorian. While Dorian was near the U.S. east coast, Doppler velocity data was useful inestimating the hurricane’s intensity along with the extent and strength of the outer wind field.
Surface observations from the Caribbean weather stations and data received from HAM radio
operators and local observers were included in the analysis of Dorian.
Ship reports of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Dorian are given in Table 2, andselected surface observations along the entire track of Dorian from land stations, data buoys, tidegauges, barometric storm tide sensors, and high water marks are given in Table 3.

Winds and Pressure
The Bahamas
Dorian’s estimated peak intensity of 160 kt at 1640 UTC 1 September, which is also thelandfall intensity at Elbow Cay in the Abacos, is based on a blend of flight-level winds,
dropwindsonde WL150 winds (average wind speed over the lowest 150 m), and multiple SFMR
surface wind speed measurements made by both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters during that time period. This estimate integrates the highest SFMR wind value of 178 kt,
a 700-mb flight-level peak wind measurement of 161 kt (which is equivalent to an intensity of 145kt), and a 1325 UTC WL150 wind speed of 177 kt (which is equivalent to a 10-m wind speed of

Hurricane Dorian5

147 kt) (Fig. 2). It is important to note that the relationship between the SFMR wind values andthe flight-level winds was quite consistent for wind speeds of 120 kt or less in Dorian, but not sofor equivalent surface wind speeds exceeding 120 kt. As has been noted for other recent intense
hurricanes, the discrepancy between surface winds estimated from historical relationships withthe peak flight-level winds and SFMR-derived surface winds leads to greater-than-normal
uncertainty in Dorian’s peak intensity estimate. The estimated peak intensity may be revised if
SFMR data at high winds are recalibrated.
The estimated minimum central pressure of 910 mb is based on a reconnaissance
dropwindsonde instrument that measured a pressure of 912 mb in the eye just prior to landfall.
That pressure observation was accompanied by a 23-kt surface wind, which indicates that thecentral pressure was approximately 910 mb. There were also several in situ observations
provided by local observers that supported this minimum pressure value. There was a pressure
observation of 909 mb measured with a smartphone at Marsh Harbor by Mr. Jimmy Ge, a visitor
there, but the value has not been calibrated at the time of this report.

Caribbean Islands
Around 0130 UTC 27 August, as its center passed over or just south of Barbados, Dorianproduced sustained winds of 33 kt with a gust to 48 kt. Data from an Air Force reconnaissanceaircraft during that time indicated that the estimated intensity associated with Dorian was 45 kt.
These winds occurred mainly over waters near the island. Dorian moved over St. Lucia around1100 UTC that day with the same intensity. It appears that the high terrain there was partially
responsible for the disruption of Dorian’s circulation, causing the center to re-form to the north ofthat island.
The center of an intensifying Dorian crossed the eastern portion of St. Croix around 1530
UTC 28 August, when it became a hurricane. The sustained winds reached 71 kt with gusts to
96 kt at Buck Island. These winds, however, could have been somewhat enhanced bytopography.

United States
Florida and Georgia
Although Dorian’s center remained offshore the coasts of eastern Florida and Georgia,
tropical-storm-force winds occurred over the coastal sections of these two states, primarily northof Broward County, Florida, because the hurricane’s wind field had expanded considerably by
then. The highest observed surface wind speed in those states was a 60-kt gust measured at
New Smyrna Beach, Florida, around 0640 UTC 4 September. Some higher gusts were observed,
but those occurred at elevated stations.

South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia
In South Carolina, most of the coastal observation sites reported northwesterly sustained
winds ranging from 45 to 55 kt. A wind gust of 77 kt was measured at Winyah Bay Range at 1827
UTC 5 September. Stronger winds were reported in coastal North Carolina, primarily along theOuter Banks as the core of Dorian moved by the area. Reconnaissance data indicate that thewinds were 85 kt at that time, but these winds occurred mainly over water in the eastern portion

Hurricane Dorian

6of the circulation. Nags Head, North Carolina, reported sustained winds of 72 kt with a gust to 85
kt at 1618 UTC 6 September. The strongest wind gust measured was 96 kt at 0920 UTC 6
September at Cedar Island in the Outer Banks. As Dorian’s eye moved very near Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina, the winds reached 80 kt in gusts and the pressure dropped to 959.7 mb at a
NOAA National Ocean Service site there. As the hurricane turned northeastward away from theU. S. east coast, tropical-storm-force winds reached as far west as coastal Virginia due to Dorian’s
expansive outer wind field. A peak wind gust of 72 kt was measured at 1501 UTC 6 September
at Chesapeake Light. However, this is an elevated observing station.

CanadaDorian was already a post-tropical cyclone by the time it moved over Atlantic Canada.
However, the wind field had continued to expand, and most of Nova Scotia was affected bysustained tropical-storm-force winds, with hurricane-force wind gusts confined primarily to somecoastal sections. Most areas within a few hundred miles of the center of Dorian experienced winds
gusts up to 54 kt, impacting Nova Scotia, eastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, theMagdalen Islands, western and northeastern Newfoundland, and the Lower North Shore ofQuebec. The highest winds were experienced just east of the storm track from Osborne Head to
Sheet Harbour. The highest wind speed reported was from Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, wherea gust to 85 kt was observed. This was likely enhanced due to topographical effects. Other notablewind gusts included 78 kt from Beaver Island and 76 kt at Osbourne Head in the approaches ofHalifax Harbour.

Storm Surge2
Catastrophic storm surge flooding occurred on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Island located in the northwestern Bahamas. A University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC)
tide gauge at Settlement Point on the western tip of Grand Bahama Island measured a water levelof 6.4 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). This observation suggests that inundationlevels were 6–7 ft above ground level on the western end of Grand Bahama Island. Higher waterlevels occurred farther east on Grand Bahama Island and on the Abaco Islands. No tide gaugemeasurements are available from those areas, but eyewitness accounts suggest that water levels
reached more than 20 ft above ground level in some areas. For example, Bahamas Minister ofAgriculture, Michael Pintard, shared a video on Twitter of seawater entering his house in the
Marco City area of Freeport, reaching his kitchen windows which he estimated to be a minimumof 20 ft above ground level.

2

Several terms are used to describe water levels due to a storm. Storm surge is defined as the abnormalrise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide, and is expressed interms of height above normal tide levels. Because storm surge represents the deviation from normal waterlevels, it is not referenced to a vertical datum. Storm tide is defined as the water level due to the
combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide, and is expressed in terms of height above a vertical
datum, i.e. the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88) or Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW).
Inundation is the total water level that occurs on normally dry ground as a result of the storm tide, and isexpressed in terms of height above ground level. At the coast, normally dry land is roughly defined as areas
higher than the normal high tide line, or Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

Hurricane Dorian

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Storm surge flooding also occurred along portions of the southeastern United States coastfrom Florida to the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, with the most significant inundation occurringon portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks (Fig. 7). The highest measured storm surge from
Dorian in the U.S. was 5.55 ft above normal tide levels at a NOAA National Ocean Service gauge
at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras on the Pamlico Sound side of the Outer Banks. The
combined effect of the surge and tide produced inundation levels of 5 to 7 ft above ground levelon parts of Hatteras Island, including within the communities of Buxton, Avon, Hatteras, andFrisco. A United States Geological Survey (USGS) storm tide pressure sensor in Buxton recorded
a peak wave-filtered water level of 6.92 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988
(NAVD88), which converts to 6.7 ft MHHW (Fig. 8). Several other USGS sensors measured waterlevels around 6 ft MHHW, while the NOS tide gauge at the U.S. Coast Guard Station in Hatteras
recorded a peak water level of 5.4 ft MHHW.
Inundation levels of 3 to 5 ft above ground level occurred elsewhere on the Outer Banks,
as well as along some portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds (including the Neuse andPamlico Rivers). USGS pressure sensors in the Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills areas measured
peak water levels of 5.2 ft MHHW, while a sensor on the Neuse River at Havelock recorded awater level of 5.3 ft MHHW. Elsewhere along the North Carolina coast, inundation levels weregenerally 3 ft or less from Cape Lookout southwestward to the South Carolina border, and only a
few isolated USGS sensors measured water levels of 3–4 ft MHHW.
Farther south, inundation heights of 2 to 4 ft above ground level occurred along the South
Carolina coast, with the highest values being measured in the Grand Strand area near Myrtle
Beach. An NOS gauge at Oyster Landing near Georgetown recorded a storm surge of 4.08 ft
above normal tide levels, which led to a peak water level of 3.5 ft MHHW. In addition, a USGS
sensor at Surfside Beach (just south of Myrtle Beach) measured a peak water level of 3.9 ft
MHHW.
In Georgia and Florida, inundation heights of 1 to 3 ft above ground level were observed,
although a few USGS sensors along the northeastern coast of Florida measured peak waterlevels slightly over 3 ft MHHW (Fig. 9). A sensor at Jacksonville Beach, Florida, measured a wavefiltered water level of 3.6 ft MHHW, while a sensor on Sea Island, Georgia, recorded a water levelof 2.9 ft MHHW. The highest levels sampled by a tide gauge were at Fernandina Beach, Florida,
where the NOS instrument measured a storm surge of 4.25 ft above normal tide levels and astorm tide of 2.6 ft MHHW.
North of North Carolina, inundation levels of 2 to 3 ft above ground level occurred in theHampton Roads area of Virginia. The NOS tide gauge at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay measureda peak water level of 3.6 ft MHHW, and a gauge at Sewells Point in Norfolk, Virginia, recorded apeak water level of 3.1 ft MHHW. Every other tide gauge within Chesapeake Bay and along themid-Atlantic coast as far north as Massachusetts measured peak water levels less than 3 ft
MHHW, with the highest being 2.8 ft MHHW at Kiptopeke on the Eastern Shore of Virginia.
As a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian also caused storm surge flooding along parts of theAtlantic Canada coastline, including along the shores of the Gulf of St. Lawrence andNorthumberland Strait. The highest storm surge measured by a tide gauge in Canada wasHurricane Dorian8

6.50 ft above normal tide levels at Shediac, New Brunswick, which resulted in a peak water levelof 4.9 ft above Higher High Water Large Tide (HHWLT -- a tidal datum similar to MHHW used in
the United States). A peak water level of 2.9 ft HHWLT was measured in Lower Escuminac, New
Brunswick, which was a record for that location. In Nova Scotia, a storm surge of 4.66 ft above
normal tide levels was measured at Halifax, resulting in a peak water level of 2.8 ft HHWLT, near
the all-time record for that location. Elsewhere, peak storm surges of 4.95 ft above normal tidelevels were measured at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island; 4.13 ft at Port-aux-Basques,
Newfoundland; and 4.13 ft on the Magdalen Islands, Quebec.
In the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the highest measured storm surge was 1.21 ft
above normal tide levels at a NOS gauge at Charlotte Amalie on St. Thomas. Observations onthese islands suggest that the combined effect of the surge and tide produced little to no coastal
flooding, with inundation levels less than a foot above ground level.

Rainfall and Flooding
Since Dorian was moving relatively quickly when it crossed the islands of the eastern
Caribbean, and associated thunderstorm activity was limited, the cyclone did not produce
significant rainfall amounts in that area. However, the hurricane slowed down to a crawl over thenorthwestern Bahamas, resulting in a storm-total rainfall of 22.84 inches at Hope Town in the
Bahamas. While Dorian moved near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, thehurricane produced significant rainfall, with a peak of 15.21 inches measured at Pawleys Island,South Carolina (Fig. 10). In Atlantic Canada, rainfall accumulations of 5 to 6 inches were observed
across Nova Scotia, with a maximum of 6.45 inches measured at Mahone Bay.

Tornadoes
A total of 21 tornadoes – 19 across eastern North Carolina and 2 in northeastern South
Carolina – were spawned by Dorian during the period from 4–6 September. Of the 21 tornadoes
that formed, 17 were EF0 strength, 2 were rated EF1, and 2 reached EF2 intensity on the
Enhanced Fujita scale. The most significant tornado damage occurred in Brunswick County and
Emerald Island in North Carolina (Figs. 11 and 12).

CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS
BahamasThe Health Minister in the Bahamas estimated that more than 200 people lost their lives
in Dorian. The Bahamas Weather Service estimated the total at 74, with 63 these occurring in
Abaco, and 11 in Grand Bahama. The Bahamas Weather Service also reported that there were
245 people missing at the time of their report.

Hurricane Dorian

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Dorian caused catastrophic damage mainly in Abaco and eastern Grand Bahama Islands
with total damage estimated at $3.4 billion (USD). The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB),
an agency which the government of the Bahamas asked to conduct a study following Dorian’s
trail of destruction, stated that the hurricane left 29,500 people homeless and/or jobless. The
island of Abaco was hardest hit, suffering 87 percent of the damage. More than 75 percent of all
homes on the island were damaged (Fig. 13).

United States
There were no direct3 fatalities from Dorian in the United States. However, the hurricane
caused four indirect deaths in the United States: three in Florida and one in North Carolina. A
Florida landscaper was electrocuted while trimming trees at a hotel in Naples. Two other men in
Florida died while preparing their homes for the storm. In North Carolina, an 85-year-old man in
Columbus County was killed when he fell from a ladder while preparing his home for the storm.
In coastal South Carolina near Charleston, strong wind gusts felled numerous trees andpowerlines. That resulted in widespread power outages affecting more than 160,000 buildings in
the state. This type of damage extended northward over coastal North Carolina, where more than
190,000 people lost power.
Several people on Ocracoke Island were trapped in their attics caused by saltwater
flooding from the storm surge inundation, and required rescue on boats. Some people wereairlifted off the island while food and water were brought in for residents remaining there. North
Carolina Highway 12 along Ocracoke Island suffered damage from the storm surge flooding andinundation. In Charleston, South Carolina, the city was especially hit hard due to flooding. The
National Park Service Incident Management Team also reported that wave erosion caused by
Dorian reshaped parts of the barrier islands in the Outer Banks. High waves also swept away aherd of cows from Cedar Island; three cows survived after being carried four miles away to Core
Banks. Waves from the hurricane caused erosion to the beaches in Delaware. In Bethany Beach,the waves narrowed the beaches and also damaged dune fencing. The New Jersey shore
experienced gusty winds and rough waves from the storm.
The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) estimated total damage
in the United States at $1.6 billion (USD).

CanadaThe effects of Dorian were felt over a large area due to the storm’s expansive wind field
and rain shield to the left of Dorian’s track. There were large uprooted trees, downed power lines,
damage to roofs and sidings of buildings, as well as major flooding from heavy rainfall acrossparts of the Canadian Maritimes. Coastal impacts included widespread storm surge and waves,

3

Deaths occurring as a direct result of the forces of the tropical cyclone are referred to as “direct” deaths.
These would include those persons who drowned in storm surge, rough seas, rip currents, and freshwater
floods. Direct deaths also include casualties resulting from lightning and wind-related events (e.g.,collapsing structures). Deaths occurring from such factors as heart attacks, house fires, electrocutions fromdowned power lines, vehicle accidents on wet roads, etc., are considered “indirect” deaths.

Hurricane Dorian

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often combining with flooding due to rain along parts of the Atlantic Coast. Many coastal
communities had damage to docks and other structures, and wave overwash onto the roads.
Coastal erosion due to waves and surge was widespread, but particularly devastating for the northcoast of Prince Edward Island where 7–10 feet of erosion occurred, as well as to parts of the
Magdalene Islands. The tree damage in Cavendish Provincial Park in Prince Edward Island wasso severe that the park was closed down for the rest of the season. There was also extensive
damage in the provincial parks on the north shore (Fig. 14).

FORECAST AND WARNING CRITIQUE
GenesisThe genesis of Dorian was not very well forecast. The disturbance from which Doriandeveloped was first introduced in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a low probability (<40%) offormation within 48 h only 18 h prior to genesis. The probabilities were raised to the medium
category (40%–60%) in both the 2-day and 5-day periods only 12 h before Dorian formed. (Table4). The poor genesis forecasts were likely due to the small size of the incipient disturbance andthe abundance of very dry mid-level air (relative humidity values <50%) surrounding the cyclone.
The ECMWF global model did not even have a hint of genesis 48 h in advance; the GFS model
showed genesis, but much farther east than where it actually occurred.
Track
A verification of NHC official track forecasts for Dorian is given in Table 5a. Official forecast
track errors were lower than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period. A homogeneouscomparison of the official track errors with selected guidance models is given in Table 5b.
Although the average NHC official track forecast errors were quite low, some models performedmuch better than NHC at some time periods. The TVDG consensus model, which doubles theweight of three global models (GFS, ECMWF and UK) and places less weight on the solutions of
the HWRF and HMON models, performed better than the official forecast as well as the otherguidance at all times.
It is interesting to point out that during the early stages of Dorian, while it was located in
the southeastern Caribbean Sea, the re-formation of the center after crossing St. Lucia resulted
in a significant shift in track. Prior to crossing St. Lucia, most of the models incorrectly brought
Dorian’s center over eastern Hispaniola, and the cyclone instead moved east of Puerto Rico (Fig.
15). These errors resulted in the lack of adequate warning for some of the islands of thenortheastern Caribbean Sea and also a low bias for the intensity forecast.
While some of the models and the official forecast indicated Dorian’s forward speed would
decrease near the Northwestern Bahamas, none of them indicated that Dorian was going to stallthere.
Several NHC forecasts issued on 28–30 August brought the center of Dorian over the
Florida peninsula. However, subsequent NHC forecasts turned Dorian northward east of Florida(Fig. 16). This resulted in low track forecast errors during a time when many models still indicatedHurricane Dorian11

a landfall in Florida. This forecasted northward turn east of Florida was the basis for not issuinga hurricane warning for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties in South Florida.
Intensity
A verification of NHC official intensity forecasts for Dorian is given in Table 6a. The official
1- to 3-day forecast intensity errors were larger than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr
period. A homogeneous comparison of the official intensity errors with selected guidance models
is given in Table 6b. With the exception of the Corrected Consensus model HCCA and the Florida
State Super Ensemble (FSSE), which both performed better than the NHC forecast at various
times, the rest of the models produced errors larger than the official forecast. Most of the large
errors are related to the fact that Dorian’s center did not move over Hispaniola, and the failure in
forecasting rapid intensification when Dorian was near the Bahamas. It is important to note thatnone of the intensity models were able to capture the intensity trend of Dorian five days prior tothe hurricane reaching its peak intensity of 160 kt (Fig. 17).
Wind Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm and Hurricane wind watches and warnings associated with Dorian are
given in Table 7. Advisories on Tropical Depression Five, which later became Dorian, were
initiated at 1500 UTC 24 August when the cyclone was centered a little more than 750 n mi eastsoutheast of Barbados. The first Tropical Storm Watch was then issued by the government of
Barbados for Barbados at 0900 UTC 25 August and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning
9 h later. Watches and warnings were gradually extended westward and northwestward acrossthe eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and adjacent islands. A portion of these islands,
including Puerto Rico, were under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch since 0900
UTC 27 August, or 33 h before Dorian reached the area. However, since the intensification of
Dorian occurred sooner than anticipated, the Tropical Storm Warning for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands was upgraded to a Hurricane Warning while Dorian was already producing
hurricane conditions in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of the Bahamas issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas
at 0900 UTC 30 August, and it was upgraded to a Hurricane Warning 12 h later. The hurricane
made its first landfall in the northwestern Bahamas at Elbow Cay 43 h after the issuance of thehurricane warning. However, tropical-storm-force winds started a few hours earlier.
Since Dorian took a track parallel to and not far from the southeastern U.S. seaboard,most of the United States East Coast from Florida to Virginia was under a watch or warning forwind and storm surge as indicated in Table 7 and Table 8, respectively. Although at one
point Dorian was forecast by the models and NHC to reach the Florida coast, subsequent NHC
forecasts shifted offshore, and it was not necessary to issue a Hurricane Watch or Warning for
Miami-Dade or Broward counties in South Florida. Historically, it has been uncommon to issue
Hurricane Watches or Warnings for the northwestern Bahamas and not issue them for South
Florida, particularly for a westward-moving hurricane.
Tropical storm watches and warnings were also issued for portions of southeastern
Massachusetts and eastern Maine. While the strongest winds associated with Dorian remained
offshore, sustained tropical-storm-force winds were observed in Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

Hurricane Dorian

12

Storm Surge Forecasts and Warnings
NHC issued its first storm surge forecast for the Bahamas at 1200 UTC 30 August,anticipating that water levels would rise by as much as 10 to 15 ft above normal tide levels inareas of onshore winds. Once it became increasingly likely that Dorian would be a powerful major
hurricane and slow down while near and over the northwestern Bahamas, the storm surge
forecast was raised to 15 to 20 ft above normal tide levels at 0300 UTC 1 September and then 18
to 23 ft above normal tide levels at 1500 UTC 1 September, specifically for the Abaco Islands andGrand Bahama Island. While no gauge measurements are available from the hardest-hit areas,
eyewitness accounts indicate that at least 20 ft of inundation occurred on those islands.
Due to Dorian’s forecast track parallel to the southeastern U.S. coastline, storm surge
watches and warnings were in effect at various times along an extended, continuous segment ofthat coast (Table 8). Storm surge warnings ultimately extended from Lantana, Florida (central
Palm Beach County), northward to Poquoson, Virginia (Fig. 18). These warnings included land
areas bordering Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds in North Carolina, as well as the southern portionof Chesapeake Bay. In addition, a Storm Surge Watch was issued, but never upgraded to awarning, for a small segment of the Florida coast north of Deerfield Beach to Lantana (thesouthern Palm Beach County coast). Based on NOS tide gauge and USGS pressure sensor
data, at least 3 ft of inundation (which NHC uses as a first-cut threshold for the storm surge
watch/warning) occurred within some parts of the warning area, particularly portions ofnortheastern Florida, the Grand Strand of South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, andsoutheastern Virginia. Other portions of the warning area did not verify, with inundation being
less than 3 ft above ground level along the east-central Florida coast, the Georgia coast, theSouth Carolina Low Country coast, and much of the North Carolina coast between Cape Fearand Cape Lookout.
Although a sizeable portion of the Storm Surge Warning area did not verify, the issuanceof the watch and warning was justified given that a slight westward deviation of Dorian’s track, oran expansion of its wind field, would have caused significant storm surge flooding to occur alonga larger proportion of the coast. This dilemma is illustrated by NWS Probabilistic Storm Surge (PSurge) ensemble tracks from the NHC forecast released at 1500 UTC 1 September, when thestorm surge watch was first issued for a portion of the Florida east coast (Fig. 19). Given typicaluncertainties in tropical cyclone track forecasts, there was the potential for Dorian to move closer
to, or even over the Florida peninsula, which would have caused significant storm surge flooding
along the east-central coast of Florida. The solid black line in the figure is Dorian’s actual track,
which shows that the hurricane ultimately moved on the eastern side of the ensemble spread andconsequently lowered the threat of significant storm surge along the east-central Florida coast.
The first storm surge forecast for a portion of the U.S. east coast was issued at 1500 UTC
1 September and called for maximum inundation heights of 4 to 7 ft above ground level between
Jupiter Inlet and the Volusia/Brevard County Line in Florida. That same inundation forecast was
extended northward along the southeastern U.S. coast, eventually reaching as far north as Cape
Lookout, North Carolina, by 2100 UTC 3 September. Forecast inundation amounts were also
increased as high as 5 to 8 ft above ground level from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach in South
Carolina at 0900 UTC 4 September. Maximum water levels along the southeastern U.S. coastHurricane Dorian13

south of Cape Lookout were around 4 ft above ground level, which was at the lower bound of thestorm surge forecast. Because Dorian stayed far enough offshore to prevent significant storm
surge flooding along the coast, the range of forecast inundation heights in that area ended up
being a few feet too high.
In eastern North Carolina between Cape Lookout and Duck, including the Pamlico andAlbemarle Sounds, the initial storm surge forecasts were 3 to 5 ft above ground level at 2100 UTC
3 September. This forecast was gradually raised over time, ultimately peaking at 4 to 7 ft above
ground level for the forecast issued at 1200 UTC 5 September. The storm surge forecast for thisarea proved to be accurate, as maximum water levels of 5 to 7 ft above ground level wereobserved on parts of Hatteras Island, and 4 to 6 ft above ground level was measured on otherparts of the Outer Banks and the western side of Pamlico Sound. Farther north, maximum
inundation heights of 2 to 4 ft above ground level were forecast north of Duck to Poquoson,
Virginia, including the Hampton Roads area. Maximum observed water levels in that region were
2 to 3 ft above ground level.

Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) and Public Communication
NHC coordinated extensively with the meteorological services of numerous countries inthe eastern Caribbean Sea beginning on 25 August, as they issued various tropical storm andhurricane watches and warnings for their respective areas of responsibility. Coordination anddiscussion of the issuance of watches and warnings with the Bahamas Meteorological Service
began on 29 August.
NHC began providing decision support to emergency managers on 24 August when
Dorian formed east of the Lesser Antilles. These initial briefings were in support of Puerto Ricoand the U.S. Virgin Islands and included FEMA headquarters and FEMA Region 2. As the threat
expanded to the continental U.S., NHC briefings included FEMA Region 3, FEMA Region 4, andthe states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. These briefings werecoordinated through the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team, embedded at NHC, and included
telephone briefings and Federal/State video-teleconferences. The coordination of information andbriefings continued through September 7 when the impacts associated with Dorian wound down
across the far northeastern U.S.
The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of NHC provided 25 live briefings on Hurricane
Dorian to the U.S. Coast Guard Districts 7 and 8 between 26 August and 6 September, in supportof their life-saving mission.
A limited media pool was initiated on 27 August, operating from 0700–0930 EDT (1100–
1330 UTC), and again from 1700–1830 EDT (2100–2230 UTC). For three days while the storm
was in the Caribbean Sea and not yet a direct threat to the mainland United States, live interviews
were offered to network pool members and to South Florida media affiliates.
The media pool was expanded to continuous operations on 30 August, operating from
0700–2330 EDT (1100–0330 UTC). A Spanish-language media pool was also initiated to addressa high Spanish media demand. With the threat to South Florida over on 3 September, a changeHurricane Dorian

14

from a local media pool to a network pool was made. This provided a high priority to networks
and more availability to those local stations elsewhere in the potential path of the storm. In total
during the pool for Dorian, NHC provided 241 network interviews, 124 local station interviews,
and 52 Spanish language interviews through the media pool, in addition to 105 generic updates
made available to all pool members.
In addition, NHC provided 32 Facebook Live broadcasts via its Facebook page during the
11-day span of the media pool (0830, 1130, and 1730 EDT/1230, 1530, 2130 UTC). NHC
experienced 6 million views, with a single peak live view of 456,000 on the 1130 EDT (1530 UTC)
1 September broadcast as Dorian neared landfall in the northwestern Bahamas.
NHC provided Key Messages in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion and in graphical format
on the NHC webpage and through social media posts from 25 August through 8 September.
NHC web pages were accessed approximately 340 million times between 24 August and
8 September resulting in approximately 6.5 billion hits. Products specific to Dorian were viewed
186 million times during this period, with a majority of the views going to graphical products suchas the key messages, cone graphic, and the wind speed probabilities.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Special thanks to Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi for the best track map,
David Roth from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for providing the U.S. rainfall
graphic, Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg for the storm surge analysis and input, and the NHC
Storm Surge Unit for providing valuable analysis and figures concerning U.S. coastal flooding
caused by Dorian’s storm surge. Data in Table 3 were compiled from Post-Tropical Cyclone
Reports issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Offices along the coast. Data from the Weather
Prediction Center, National Data Buoy Center, NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic
Products and Services, United States Geological Survey, and the Storm Prediction Center werealso included in this report. Thanks also to the meteorological services of the eastern Caribbean
region, the Bahamas and Bermuda for their storm reports. Their information has been
incorporated in this report.

Hurricane Dorian

Table 1.

15

Best track for Hurricane Dorian, 24 August–7 September 2019.

Date/Time(UTC)

Latitude(°N)

Longitude(°W)

Pressure(mb)

Wind
Speed (kt)Stage

24 / 0600

10.3

46.4

1011

25

tropical depression

24 / 1200

10.4

47.5

1010

30

"

24 / 1800

10.6

48.7

1008

35

tropical storm

25 / 0000

10.8

49.9

1008

35

"

25 / 0600

11.0

51.0

1008

35

"

25 / 1200

11.2

52.3

1007

40

"

25 / 1800

11.4

53.5

1007

45

"

26 / 0000

11.6

54.7

1007

45

"

26 / 0600

11.9

56.0

1006

45

"

26 / 1200

12.2

57.2

1006

45

"

26 / 1800

12.6

58.3

1006

45

"

27 / 0000

13.0

59.2

1005

45

"

27 / 0130

13.1

59.4

1005

45

"

27 / 0600

13.5

60.2

1005

45

"

27 / 1100

14.0

60.9

1005

45

"

27 / 1200

14.2

61.2

1005

45

"

27 / 1800

15.0

62.0

1004

45

"

28 / 0000

15.7

62.8

1003

50

"

28 / 0600

16.4

63.5

1001

55

"

28 / 1200

17.3

64.2

999

60

"

28 / 1530

17.8

64.6

995

65

hurricane

28 / 1800

18.4

65.1

993

70

"

29 / 0000

19.2

65.7

989

75

"

29 / 0600

20.0

66.3

988

75

"

29 / 1200

21.0

66.9

986

75

"

29 / 1800

22.0

67.4

983

75

"

30 / 0000

22.8

68.0

978

80

"

30 / 0600

23.5

68.8

978

90

"

30 / 1200

24.3

69.5

972

95

"

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

Latitude(°N)

Longitude(°W)

Pressure(mb)

Wind
Speed (kt)Stage

30 / 1800

24.8

70.3

968

100

"

31 / 0000

25.3

71.1

949

115

"

31 / 0600

25.6

72.1

947

120

"

31 / 1200

25.9

73.0

944

125

"

31 / 1800

26.1

74.0

942

130

"

01 / 0000

26.3

74.7

939

135

"

01 / 0600

26.4

75.6

934

145

"

01 / 1200

26.5

76.5

927

155

"

01 / 1640

26.5

77.0

910

160

"

01 / 1800

26.5

77.1

910

160

"

02 / 0000

26.6

77.7

914

155

"

02 / 0215

26.6

77.8

914

155

"

02 / 0600

26.6

78.0

916

145

"

02 / 1200

26.7

78.3

927

135

"

02 / 1800

26.8

78.4

938

125

"

03 / 0000

26.9

78.5

944

115

"

03 / 0600

27.0

78.5

950

105

"

03 / 1200

27.1

78.5

954

100

"

03 / 1800

27.6

78.6

959

95

"

04 / 0000

28.1

78.8

959

90

"

04 / 0600

28.8

79.2

964

90

"

04 / 1200

29.5

79.6

963

90

"

04 / 1800

30.1

79.7

960

95

"

05 / 0000

30.7

79.7

955

100

"

05 / 0600

31.4

79.6

958

100

"

05 / 1200

32.1

79.2

958

100

"

05 / 1800

32.7

78.9

958

95

"

06 / 0000

33.4

77.9

956

90

"

06 / 0600

34.1

76.9

956

90

"

06 / 1200

35.1

75.7

956

85

"

06 / 1230

35.2

75.6

956

85

"

16

Hurricane Dorian

17

Date/Time(UTC)

Latitude(°N)

Longitude(°W)

Pressure(mb)

Wind
Speed (kt)Stage

06 / 1800

36.2

73.7

956

85

"

07 / 0000

37.4

71.2

956

85

"

07 / 0600

38.9

68.9

955

85

"

07 / 1200

40.8

66.9

954

85

"

07 / 1800

42.8

64.6

954

80

low

08 / 0000

45.2

62.9

956

80

"

08 / 0600

47.6

61.9

960

75

extratropical08 / 1200

49.4

60.4

962

70

"

08 / 1800

50.8

57.9

966

60

"

09 / 0000

51.6

54.8

980

50

"

09 / 0600

dissipated

01 / 1640

26.5

77.0

910

160

maximum winds
minimum pressure

27 / 0130

13.1

59.4

1005

45

landfall at Barbados

27 / 1100

14.0

60.9

1005

45

landfall at St. Lucia

28 / 1530

17.8

64.6

995

65

landfall at St. Croix

28 / 1800

18.4

65.1

993

70

landfall at St.
Thomas01 / 1640

26.5

77.0

910

160

landfall Elbow Cay,
Abacos02 / 0215

26.6

77.8

914

155

landfall at South
Riding Point, Grand
Bahama06 / 1230

35.3

75.5

956

85

landfall at Cape
Hatteras, NC

Hurricane Dorian

Table 2.

Date/Time
(UTC)

18

Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Dorian, 24 August–
7 September 2019.
Ship callsign

LatitudeLongitudeWind

Pressure

(°N)

(°W)

dir/speed (kt)(mb)

28 / 1500

J8PB

18.2

63.8

110 / 35

1012.003 / 1800

DGZL

25.9

76.5

180 / 35

1005.804 / 0900

J8QX6

25.8

77.2

230 / 35

1008.605 / 0700

WHED

28.6

76.5

190 / 371012.305 / 0800

C6BX8

28.1

80.3

230 / 38

1008.905 / 0800

CQIV4

28.9

76.3

190 / 35

1012.005 / 1000

HPYE

27.5

79.5

220 / 361012.105 / 1800

VRLZ4

30.2

76.0

200 / 41

1010.805 / 2100

DFDG2

30.6

79.5

220 / 40

1005.706 / 0700

WNTL

31.9

72.9

320 / 50

1009.006 / 1200

FMEK

32.6

73.5

200 / 451005.006 / 1300

9V621039.4

74.0

080 / 35

1010.006 / 1600

VRNY4

30.8

75.5

260 / 35

1010.007 / 0000

WAIU

33.1

67.4

210 / 371011.807 / 0200

C6BR3

33.3

66.7

230 / 35

1016.007 / 0400

VRID5

38.3

74.3

010 / 35

1006.107 / 0500

9HJC9

32.6

67.7

230 / 36

1007.007 / 0600

C6BR3

32.2

67.9

240 / 401014.007 / 1100

KABL

35.4

64.2

020 / 40

1009.7

Hurricane Dorian

Table 3.

19

Selected surface observations for Hurricane Dorian, 24 August–7 September
2019.
Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

27/0200

1007.127/0100

33

48

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation(ft)eBarbados
Barbados Grantley Adams(TBPB) (13.08N 59.49W)

U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
St. Thomas (TIST)(18.33N 64.97W)

28/1800

1000.0466528/1720993

28/172071

96

28/1914993

28/191448

58

28/18271000

28/182744

57

28/17531003

28/175351

65

28/1500

30

38

63

84

Weatherflow
Buck Island (XBUK)(18.28N 64.89W)

Culebra Is, PR (XCUL)(18.31N 65.23W)

Rupert Rock, VI (XRUP)(18.33N 64.93W)

Two Brothers, VI (XBRO)(18.34N 64.82W)

National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
St. Croix (CHSV3)(17.75N 64.71W)

St. Thomas Charlotte Amalie(CHAV3) (18.34N 64.92W)
Culebra, PR (CLBP4)(18.30N 65.30W)

28/1524

1006.328/1806

1000.328/1930

1005.928/1807

999.7

28/1717

01/12141006.1I

01/121425I

37I

01/1149

1004.1I

01/1149

25I

42I

Public/Other
St. Thomas – Estate Bovoni(AU730) (18.32N 64.89W)(70 m)

BahamasDunmore Town, Eleuthera(25.50N 76.64W)

Great Cuana Cay(26.67N 77.12W)

Hopetown, Abaco

87I e

01/1444(26.54N 76.96W)

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
Settlement Point (SPGF1)(26.70N 79.00W)

03/0500

983.7

01/1654912.0

01/1750

913.4

Public/Other
Hopetown, Abaco (Edds)(26.54N 76.96W)

Marsh Harbour, Great Abaco(ICyclone)(26.54N 77.08W)

03/0500

55(8 m, 10-min)

77

6.4

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a06/1850998.1

06/182906/07201005.706/0433

05/1600

959.2

05/1801

05/0550994.1

04/231204/0710988.1

04/0700

04/0440983.1

04/0056

06/0120958.5

06/024406/0038985.4

06/0223

06/1220959.2

06/1335

05/1553983.7

05/1523

05/1008

992.0

05/1208

05/1208

992.6I

05/1208

06/0408959.2

06/0308

06/0408

976.4

06/0253

30/06101002.930/0614

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

52

63

Buoys
41001 NOAA
(34.50N 72.52W)

41002 NOAA
(31.89N 74.93W)

41004 NOAA
(32.50N 79.10W)

41008 NOAA
(31.40N 80.87W)

41009 NOAA
(28.50N 80.18W)

41010 NOAA
(28.91N 78.47W)

41013 NOAA
(33.44N 77.73W)

41024 CORMP(33.85N 78.48W)

41025 NOAA
(35.01N 75.40W)

41029 CORMP(32.81N 79.63W)

41033 CORMP(32.28N 80.41W)

41033 CORMP(32.28N 80.41W)

41037 CORMP(33.99N 77.36W)

41038 CORMP(34.10N 77.70W)

41046 NOAA
(23.82N 68.38W)

41052 CarICOOS(18.25N 64.76W)

41064 CORMP(34.21N 76.95W)

44008 NOAA
(40.50N 69.25W)

44011 NOAA
(41.07N 66.59W)

44014 NOAA
(36.61N 74.84W)

44020 NOAA
(41.49N 70.28W)

44027 NOAA
(44.27N 67.31W)

44037 NRACOOS(43.50N 67.88W)

44064 CBIBS(37.00N 76.09W)

28/1750

1004.2

28/1700

06/0608959.1

06/0708

07/0840982.9

07/1011

07/1300

955.3

07/1547

06/1750984.5

06/1805

07/0800

997.6

07/0804

07/1950994.7

07/1949

07/1704

994.0I

07/1704

06/1440998.4

06/144044137 E&CCC(42.50N 64.02W)(4 m, 1-min)

44(4 m, 1-min)

74(4 m, 1-min)52(5 m, 1-min)

52(4 m, 8-min)61(4 m, 1-min)66(4 m, 1-min)

37
(3 m)

64
(4 m, 1-min)49(3 m, 8-min)53(3 m, 8-min)964.8

07/2000

86
64
70
78
78
56
78
80
80

62
49
(3 m)

39
(3 m)

46
(4 m)
I

37

(4 m)

45
(3 m)

56
(5 m, 1-min)63(4 m, 1-min)62(5 m, 1-min)37(4 m, 1-min)37(5 m, 1-min)

68
58
54
47I
68
70
81
71
45
43

35I
(4 m)

38
(3 m)
(5 m)

07/1800

54(10 m)

51(42.26N 62.00W)

44150 E&CCC

20

53
(5 m)

52
58
65

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

44258 E&CCC(44.50N 63.40W)

21

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a07/2300

965.3

07/1900

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

49

61

(5 m)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

United States Mainland
FloridaInternational Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
Cape Canaveral (KXMR)(28.46N 80.56W)

Cape Canaveral (KTTS)(28.61N 80.69W)

Cocoa Beach (KCOF)(28.23N 80.59W)

Melbourne (KMLB)(28.10N 80.64W)

Pompano Beach Airpark(KPMP) (26.25N 80.12W)
St. Augustine (KSGJ)(29.97N 81.33W)

West Palm Beach (KPBI)(26.68N 80.12W)

04/0856996.9

04/070652

04/0856997.7

04/045127

53

04/0555998.1

03/225033

46

04/0653999.3

03/2305

33

44

03/0935

1001.303/182532

42

04/1656

1001.804/0546

33I

41I

03/0820

1000.3

30

38

44

54

1.83

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
St. Augustine (SAUF1)(29.86N 81.26W)

04/1300

1001.3

04/1300(16 m)

National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Blount Island Command(BLIF1) (30.39N 81.52W)
Dames Point (DMSF1)

04/1906

1004.036

04/1742(11 m)(30.39N 81.56W)

Fernandina Beach (FRDF1)(30.67N 81.47W)

Key West (KYWF1)(24.55N 81.81W)

Lake Worth Pier (LKWF1)(26.61N 80.03W)

Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock)(MYPF1) (30.40N 81.43W)
Southbank Riverwalk St.
John River (MSBF1)

04/20121003.503/0730

1007.003/0818

1001.402/1906

04/2030

1002.304/164841

04/1618(9 m)

40(12 m)

40(11 m)

2.39

3.18

1.8

4.25

5.29

2.6

0.77

0.98

0.9

2.00

2.70

2.2

3.09

4.09

2.1

1.91

2.29

1.7

1.68

2.54

2.0

2.11

3.34

2.2

(30.32N 81.66W)

S Port Everglades (PEGF1)(26.08N 80.12W)

Trident Pier, Port Canaveral(TRDF1) (28.42N 80.59W)
Vaca Key, Florida Bay(VCAF1) (24.71N 81.11W)
Virginia Key, Biscayne Bay(VAKF1) (25.73N 80.16W)

37

03/0918

1001.703/1900

04/0636999.1

04/0230

03/07121006.0

1.09

0.71

1.1

03/07421002.5

1.55

2.05

1.9

04/0717998.6(44 m)

45(10 m)

Weatherflow
Banana River at 520 (XCCB)(28.36N 80.66W)

03/2247

36
(5 m)

52

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Buck Island (XJAK)(30.39N 81.48W)

Crescent Beach (XHSE)(29.72N 81.23W)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a04/1918

998

04/1623

04/16481000

04/1048
02/1945(25.75N 80.10W)

Grant Indian River (XIND)(27.96N 80.53W)

Huguenot Park (XHUP)(30.42N 81.41W)

Jacksonville Beach Pier
(XJAX) (30.29N 81.39W)
Juno Beach Pier (XJUP)(26.89N 80.06W)

Malabar Indian River (XRPT)(27.98N 80.55W)

Melbourne Beach (XMBI)(27.90N 80.47W)

New Smyrna Beach (XNSB)(29.05N 80.90W)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Government Cut (XGVT)
04/0704

999.3

03/2234

04/20301001

04/1805

04/2030

1000

04/1215

03/1949999.9

03/0459

04/06421000.1

04/0037

04/0740996.8

03/222004/0849996.3

04/0644

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

37

48

(10 m)

34

50

30

45

(23 m)

35
(5 m)

36
(12 m)

38(10 m)

43
(6 m)

36
(6 m)

42
(10 m)

41(10 m)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

5.42

2.7

3.81

2.6

5.06

3.2

4.44

2.9

5.65

3.0

5.39

3.4

1.70

2.5

5.61

3.1

53
47
48
53
48
52
60

Florida Institute of Technology Weather Stations
Sebastian Inlet Pier (SIPF1)(27.86N 80.44W)

04/0811999.3

03/222142(11 m)

53

United States Geological Survey (USGS) High Water Marks
Jacksonville – Sawpit Creek(FLDUV03108)(30.51N 81.46W)

USGS Storm Tide Sensors
Cocoa Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (FLBRE03167)(28.37N 80.60W)

Crescent Beach – Matanzas
River (FLSTJ03125)(29.76N 81.25W)

Daytona Beach Shores –Atlantic Ocean(FLVOL03141)(29.15N 80.96W)

Fernandina Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (FLNAS21014)(30.62N 81.44W)

Fort Matanzas – Atlantic
Ocean (FLSTJ03126)(29.72N 81.23W)

Grant-Valkaria Indian River(FLBRE03160)(27.92N 80.52W)

Jacksonville – Ft. George
River (FLSTJ03125)(30.42N 81.42W)

22

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Jacksonville – Pablo Creek(FLDUV03114)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

3.72

2.2

5.09

2.7

6.03

3.6

4.34

2.9

2.23

2.3

1.55

2.4

2.89

2.7

4.19

2.2

4.31

2.8

4.06

2.2

2.13

2.8

5.21

3.2

4.68

2.7

(30.29N 81.42W)

Jacksonville – Sawpit Creek(FLDUV03108)(30.51N 81.46W)

Jacksonville Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (FLDUV21045)(30.29N 81.39W)

New Smyrna Beach –Atlantic Ocean(FLVOL03146)(29.01N 80.88W)

Ormond Beach – Halifax
River (FLVOL03138)(29.29N 81.05W)

Palm Bay – Indian River(FLBRE03158)(28.04N 80.58W)

Palm Coast – Intracoastal
Waterway (FLFLA03131)(29.56N 81.18W)

Palm Valley Landing –Intracoastal Waterway(FLSTJ03117)(30.13N 81.38W)

Ponce Inlet Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (FLVOL03143)(29.08N 80.92W)

Ponte Vedra Beach –Intracoastal Waterway(FLSTJ03117)(30.21N 81.41W)

Sebastian Inlet Intracoastal(FLIND03149)(27.86N 80.45W)

St. Augustine – Salt Run(FLSTJ17848)(29.89N 81.29W)

Usina Beach – Tolomato
River (FLSTJ03118)(29.95N 81.31W)

Other
USAF Tower 3 (KSC0003)
Kennedy Space Center

04/0305(28.46N 80.53W)

USAF Tower 311 (KSC0311)(28.60N 80.64W)

USAF Tower 313 (KSC0313)(28.63N 80.66W)

04/0600
04/0657

USAF Tower 313 (KSC0313)(28.66N 80.70W)

42(16 m, 1-min)

34(16 m, 1-min)

44(16 m, 1-min)60(28.63N 80.66W)

USAF Tower 415 (KSC0415)

23(90 m, 1-min)

04/0405

60
55
62
70
61
(2 m)

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

24

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

38

50

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

4.00

5.97

2.5

5.60

2.4

4.93

2.2

5.32

2.3

5.90

2.9

5.18

2.2

5.21

2.1

5.79

2.2

Total
rain
(in)

Georgia
National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Fort Pulaski (FPKG1)(32.04N 80.90W)

05/0800

998.1

05/054205/0804

993.5

05/053905/0812995.1

05/1247(7 m, 2-min)

Weatherflow
Tybee Island North (XTYB)(32.03N 80.84W)

Tybee Island South (XTYE)(31.99N 80.84W)

33(10 m, 5-min)

36(9 m, 5-min)

52
48

USGS Storm Tide Sensors
Brunswick – Brunswick River(GAGLY17821)(31.15N 81.50W)

Cumberland Island – St.
Marys River (GACAM17823)(30.72N 81.55W)

Jekyll Island State Park –Jekyll Sound (GAGLY17790)(31.02N 81.43W)

Sea Island – Atlantic Ocean(GAGLY17903)(31.17N 81.35W)

St. Simons – Brunswick River(GAGLY18414)(31.13N 81.40W)

St. Simons – Mackay River(GAGLY17810)(31.17N 81.43W)

Skidaway Island –Wilmington River(GACHA17861)(31.96N 81.01W)

South Carolina
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
Beaufort County Airport(KARW) (32.41N 80.63W)
Charleston Intl (KCHS)(32.90N 80.04W)

Georgetown (KGGE)(33.31N 79.32W)

Hilton Head (KHXD)(32.22N 80.70W)

Mount Pleasant Regional(KLRO) (32.90N 79.78W)
Myrtle Beach AFB (KMYR)(33.69N 78.93W)

North Myrtle Beach (KCRE)(33.81N 78.72W)

999.7

05/0615

35I

45I

05/1456993.2

05/1549

45

60

5.54

05/1855988.5

05/1815

35

48

6.11

05/0855996.3

05/053546

58

05/1515988.5

05/165531

51

05/2128

989.4

05/2300

40

48

8.87

05/2214989.5

05/1224

34

53

10.74

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Folly Beach (FBIS1)(32.69N 79.89W)

25

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a05/1400

988.5

05/0510

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

43

58

(10 m, 2-min)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

3.54

4.78

2.2

4.08

5.87

3.5

3.14

4.96

2.5

Total
rain
(in)

National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Charleston (CHTS1)(32.78N 79.93W)

05/1506

990.0

05/034236(9 m, 2-min

51

Oyster Landing (N Inlet
Estuary) (NITS1)(33.35N 79.19W)

Springmaid Pier (MROS1)(33.66N 78.92W)

05/2130

993.2

National Estuarine Research Reserve System Stations
Winyah Bay (NIWS1)(33.35N 79.19W)

05/1945987

05/1545

05/0902993.1

05/0902

05/0755994.3

05/0615

05/1528986.4

05/1548

05/1327987.9

05/0417

05/1516985.3

05/1606

06/1850987

05/1840

05/1511986.2

05/044105/2030987

05/1845

05/1528986.0

05/1538

05/1513985.0

05/1548

05/1822982I

05/1827

43

10.49

(5 m)

Weatherflow
Beaufort (XBUF)(32.35N 80.59W)

Calibogue Sound (XCLB)(32.11N 80.83W)

Charleston Battery Point(XCHA) (32.76N 79.95W)
Folly Beach Pier (XFOL)(32.65N 79.94W)

Ft. Sumter (XSUM)(32.75N 79.87W)

Georgetown(33.37N 79.27W)

Isle of Palms (XIOP)(32.78N 79.79W)

Murrells Inlet(33.52N 79.03W)

Shutes Folly (XSHF)(32.77N 79.91W)

Sullivan’s Island (XSUL)(32.77N 79.82W)

Winyah Bay Range(33.19N 79.18W)

30(10 m, 5-min)

35(6 m, 5-min)

44(10 m, 5-min)

42(13 m, 5-min)

54(12 m, 5-min)

53
51
58
59
70
55
(10 m)

36(9 m, 5-min)

53
56
(7 m)

53
(13 m, 5-m in)

34(13 m, 5-min)

59(15 m)

70
57
77

RAWS
Ace Basin (ABRS1)(32.66N 80.40W)

05/1255

27I

52

USGS Storm Tide Sensors
Bluffton – May River(SCBEA14284)

6.53

2.6

5.18

2.8

4.59

2.8

(32.23N 80.86W)

Briarcliff Acres – Singleton
Swash (SCHOR17780)(33.76N 78.79W)

Forest Brook (SCHOR17780)(33.70N 78.94W)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

26

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Garden City – Intracoastal
Waterway (SCHOR14327)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

5.53

3.4

4.25

2.1

4.56

2.4

5.35

3.0

4.68

2.0

5.10

3.0

4.77

3.0

5.62

3.3

4.98

2.5

4.79

2.4

5.77

3.1

5.74

3.3

6.34

3.9

Total
rain
(in)

(33.58N 79.00W)

Georgetown – Pee Dee River(SCGEO14315)(33.37N 79.27W)

Georgetown – Sampit River(SCGEO14322)(33.36N 79.38W)

Huntington State Park –Murrells Inlet (SCGEO14321)(33.53N 79.03W)

James Island – Seaside
Creek (SCCHA14312)(32.71N 79.95W)

Murrells Inlet – Parsonage
Creek (SCGEO14320)(33.55N 79.03W)

Myrtle Beach – Intracoastal
Waterway (SCHOR14332)(33.76N 78.82W)

Myrtle Beach – Withers
Swash (SCHOR00003)(33.68N 78.89W)

North Myrtle Beach –Whitepoint Swash(SCHOR14333)(33.79N 78.74W)

North Myrtle Beach –Williams Creek(SCHOR14329)(33.84N 78.62W)

Pawleys Island Creek(SCGEO14316)(33.44N 79.12W)

Springmaid Beach – Midway
Swash (SCHOR17779)(33.66N 78.92W)

Surfside Beach Swash(SCHOR14328)(33.60N 78.97W)

Public/OtherCharleston (KXCM)(32.78N 79.93W)

05/1540984.4

05/084037(10 m, 10-min)

49

Litchfield by the Sea(KSCPAWLE20)

13.44(33.48N 79.09W)

Mount Pleasant(32.87N 79.82W)

Myrtle Beach KSCMYRTL2(33.65N 78.94W)

Socastee 3 NE
KSCMYRTL78 (33.71N
78.96W)

05/1455

989.8I

05/2134987.8

05/2329

55
48

10.18

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Summerville27

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

05/1018

30

53

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

COOP Sites (NWS)
Georgetown Co Apt (GEOS1)

13.38(33.32N 79.32W)

McClellanville 7 NE (SRES1)

11.79(33.15N 79.36W)

Myrtle Beach (MYBS1)

10.00(33.75N 78.82W)

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Sites
Georgetown 11.2 SW (SCGT-38) (33.23N 79.41W)
McClellanville (SC-CR-10)

12.10
10.70

(33.08N 79.46W)

McClellanville 1 ESE (SCCR-33) (33.08N 79.46W)
Mount Pleasant 4 NE (SCCR-158) (32.87N 79.82W)
Murrells Inlet 0.9 NNE (SCGT-19) (33.57N 79.05W)
Myrtle Beach 5.2 SW (SCHR-73) (33.65N 78.96W)
Myrtle Beach 9.2 WSW (SCHR-66) (33.62N 79.03W)
Myrtle Beach 2.4 ENE (SCHR-64) (33.72N 78.86W)
Pawley’s Island 5.6 NNE(SC-GT-9) (33.49N 79.08W)
Pawley’s Island 2.6 N (SCGT-24) (33.46N 79.12W)
Pawley’s Island 2.7 W (SCGT-18) (33.43N 79.17W)
Pawley’s Island 0.8 WNW(SC-GT-26) (33.43N 79.14W)
Surfside Beach 1.0 NE (SCHR-39) (33.62N 78.97W)

10.12
10.12
10.13
12.77
11.63
10.62
15.21
14.80
12.00
10.20
10.25

North Carolina
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
Bouge Field (KNJM)(34.69N 77.04W)

Beaufort (KMRH)(34.73N 76.66W)

Cherry Pt (KNKT)(34.90N 76.88W)

Edenton (KEDE)(36.03N 76.56W)

Elizabeth City (KECG)(36.26N 76.17W)

Hatteras (KHSE)(35.22N 75.62W)

06/0743980.4I

06/0647

31I

46I

06/0820969.5I

06/0845

43I

59I

06/0854981.8

06/095446

63

06/1400996

06/1400

27

51

06/1254994.0

06/114447

61

06/1151960.7I

06/1040

45I

68I

4.57

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Kill Devil Hills (KFFA)(36.02N 75.67W)

Kinston/Stallings Fld (KISO)(35.33N 77.61W)

Manteo (KMQI)(35.92N 75.70W)

New River (KNCA)(34.71N 77.43W)

Stumpy Point (K2DP)(35.69N 75.90W)

Wilmington (KILM)(34.28N 77.92W)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation(ft)e(34.60N 76.52W)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

06/1340986.8

06/1500

26I

51I

06/0840993.2

06/0740

35I

47I

06/1355985.4

06/1455

39I

53I

06/0656986.5

06/1004

37

54

5.12

06/1306

983.7

06/1451

45

63

3.93

06/0417986.5

06/0445

37

49

10.05

59

82

3.39

06/0800

960.1

06/1000(10 m)

National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Beaufort (BFTN7)(34.72N 76.67W)

Duck (DUKN7)(36.18N 75.75W)

Hatteras (HCGN7)(35.21N 75.70W)

Oregon Inlet (ORIN7)(35.78N 75.53W)

Wilmington (WLON7)
Wrightsville Beach (JMPN7)(34.21N 77.79W)

06/0818970.5

06/084206/1448987.3

06/151206/1212959.7

06/1300

06/1347981.8

06/1630

06/0400

986.5

06/0412983.6

06/0248

52
(7 m)

65
(9 m)

65
(8 m)

48
(7 m)

48
(8 m)

64

2.08

2.90

1.4

79

3.89

5.01

3.5

80

5.55

5.56

5.4

69

3.15

3.65

3.2

2.01

3.64

1.6

2.05

3.77

2.0

60

Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service (AHPS) Sites
Carolina Beach (CBCN7)

06/0256(34.04N 77.89W)

Southport (STHN7)

05/2243(33.92N 78.02W)

Surf City (SRFN7)534406/0435(34.42N 77.54W)

61
61

Weatherflow
Alligator River Bridge(35.90N 76.01W)

Avon Sound(35.34N 75.50W)

Avon(35.35N 75.50W)

Buxton(35.26N 75.59W)

Carolina Beach(34.04N 77.90W)

Federal Point(33.96N 77.94W)

Fort Fisher(33.97N 77.92W)

Total
rain
(in)

Date/
time
(UTC)

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
Cape Lookout (CLKN7)28

06/1108

990.4I

06/1408

06/1307959.5I

06/134206/1238959.2I

06/1208

06/1249957.3I

06/113906/0252982

06/0152

06/0245979

06/014506/0245980

06/001067I(12 m)

68I
(5 m)

73I
(12 m)

59I(10 m)

82I
85I
86
79I
52
(10 m)

65(15 m)

65(10 m)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Fort Macon(34.70N 76.71W)

Frisco Woods(35.24N 75.60W)

Hatteras High(35.26N 75.55W)

Kites Resort(35.58N 75.47W)

Nags Head(35.91N 75.59W)

Oak Island(33.91N 78.12W)

Ocracoke Sound(35.14N 76.00W)

Oregon Inlet CG(35.77N 75.53W)

Pamlico Sound(35.42N 75.83W)

Waves(35.57N 75.49W)

29

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a06/0816963.7

06/0806

06/1250958.6I

06/131006/1248956.7I

06/1328

06/1329967.8I

06/1619

06/1403983.7I

06/161806/0111980

06/0236

06/1119960.8I

06/104406/1335

978.2

06/1620

06/1218969.9

06/1453

06/1314970.1

06/1659

06/0018976.7

05/2257

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

61

78

(10 m)

62I
(6 m)

67I
(10 m)

62I(16 m)

72I(18 m)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

77I
87I
96I
85I
53
(10 m)

60I
(8 m)

69
(10 m)

64(13 m)

58(10 m)

77I
86
82
75

North Carolina ECONET
Bald Head Island(33.85N 77.97W)

36(10 m)49

RAWS
Sunny Point (NSUN)(34.00N 77.96W)

06/0400

55

4.58

(6 m)

USGS High Water Marks
Aurora – Pamlico River(NCBEA11728)

4.37

2.0

6.14

2.0

6.26

3.5

8.07

2.6

7.84

4.0

6.00

2.7

4.96

3.2

(35.38N 76.75W)

Avon – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00004)(35.35N 75.51W)

Avon – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR06914)(35.35N 75.51W)

Buxton – Atlantic Ocean(NCDAR12790)(35.27N 75.52W)

Buxton – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00002)(35.27N 75.56W)

Hatteras – The Slash to
Pamlico Sound(NCDAR12749)(35.22N 75.69W)

USGS Storm Tide Sensors
Atlantic Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (NCCAR12328)(34.70N 76.73W)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Aurora – Pamlico River(NCBEA11728)

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

3.34

3.2

5.83

4.4

6.32

6.1

2.35

2.2

7.83

6.4

6.92

6.7

4.53

2.6

3.22

3.1

2.70

2.7

3.31

3.4

2.42

2.0

2.98

2.9

6.75

5.3

4.26

2.3

3.50

2.8

5.68

5.6

5.02

5.3

3.15

3.4

(35.38N 76.75W)

Avon – Atlantic Ocean(NCDAR00003)(35.35N 75.50W)

Avon – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00004)(35.35N 75.51W)

Belhaven – Pantego Creek,
Pungo River (NCBEA13648)(35.53N 76.61W)

Buxton – Atlantic Ocean(NCDAR12790)(35.27N 75.52W)

Buxton – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00002)(35.27N 75.56W)

Carolina Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (NCNEW00004)(34.06N 77.88W)

Chocowinity Bay(NCBEA11788)(35.50N 77.05W)

Columbia – Albemarie Sound(NCTYR13548)(35.99N 76.18W)

Columbia – Alligator River(NCTYR13568)(35.91N 76.03W)

Davis – Core Sound(NCCAR12128)(34.80N 76.46W)

Edenton – Chowan River(NCCHO12448)(36.06N 76.68W)

Frisco – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR18739)(35.22N 75.64W)

Hampstead – Intracoastal
Waterway near Rich Inlet(NCPEN00001)(34.31N 77.73W)

Harkers Island – Back Sound(NCCAR00001)(34.68N 76.53W)

Hatteras – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00001)(35.21N 75.70W)

Havelock – Neuse River(NCCRA00003)(34.94N 76.81W)

Hobucken – Pamlico Sound(NCPAM13270)(35.24N 76.59W)

30

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Kill Devil Hills – AlbemarleSound at Kitty Hawk Bay(NCDAR12668)

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

2.37

2.4

6.73

5.2

6.74

5.2

3.74

2.0

3.07

3.1

2.60

2.6

3.51

3.0

3.27

3.5

5.55

3.5

2.48

2.3

5.31

3.0

4.74

2.6

4.22

2.1

5.98

3.6

4.63

2.2

4.60

4.9

(36.02N 75.73W)

Kill Devil Hills – Atlantic
Ocean (NCDAR13668)(36.04N 75.67W)

Kitty Hawk – Atlantic Ocean(NCDAR12669)(36.10N 75.71W)

Kure Beach – Cape Fear
River (NCNEW00002)(33.96N 77.94W)

Leonards Point – AlbemarleSound (NCWAS13588)(35.96N 76.49W)

Manns Harbor – Croatan
Sound (NCDAR00011)(35.91N 75.77W)

Nags Head – Motts Creek at
Pamlico Sound(NCDAR00005)(35.80N 75.55W)

New Bern – Trent River(NCCRA12488)(35.10N 77.04W)

North Topsail Beach –Atlantic Ocean(NCONS00002)(34.50N 77.40W)

North Topsail Beach –Intracoastal Waterway(NCONS13189)(34.52N 77.37W)

Oak Island – Atlantic Ocean(NCBRU11888)(33.91N 78.15W)

Oak Island – Atlantic Ocean(NCBRU11891)(33.90N 78.08W)

Oak Island – Intracoastal
Waterway (NCBRU11890)(33.93N 78.14W)

Ocean Isle Beach – Atlantic
Ocean (NCBRU00012)(33.89N 78.44W)

Ocean Isle Beach –Intracoastal Waterway(NCBRU00014)(33.90N 78.44W)

Oriental – Neuse River(NCPAM13231)(35.02N 76.70W)

31

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

32

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Pond Island – Roanoke
Sound (NCDAR12629)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

3.36

3.2

6.26

4.8

4.71

4.2

4.74

2.4

2.36

2.2

2.64

2.0

2.53

2.3

4.55

2.1

4.53

2.2

4.38

2.2

2.00

2.2

2.69

2.2

4.49

2.2

Total
rain
(in)

(35.90N 75.62W)

Rodanthe – Atlantic Ocean(NCDAR12788)(35.59N 75.46W)

Rodanthe – Pamlico Sound(NCDAR12709)(35.58N 75.47W)

Shallotte – Intracoastal
Waterway (NCBRU11908)(33.91N 78.37W)

Sneads Ferry – New River(NCONS13128)(34.58N 77.40W)

Straits – North River(NCCAR12428)(34.72N 76.58W)

Stumpy Point Bay, Pamlico
Sound (NCDAR00010)(35.70N 75.77W)

Sunset Beach – Bull Creek,
Intracoastal Waterway(NCBRU11850)(33.87N 78.52W)

Sunset Beach – Intracoastal
Waterway (NCBRU11893)(33.88N 78.51W)

Supply – Intracoastal
Waterway (NCBRU12008)(33.92N 78.27W)

Swan Quarter Bay, Pamlico
Sound (NCHYD00001)(35.39N 76.33W)

Swansboro – White Oak
River (NCONS00001)(34.69N 77.12W)

Varnamtown – Intracoastal
Waterway at Lockwoods
Folly Inlet (NCBRU11909)(33.92N 78.24W)

Public/Other
Beaufort(34.76N 76.55W)

Carolina Beach KNCAROL11(34.05N 77.89W)

06/0724979.0I

06/0245982.1

06/0200

47

Castle Hayne

11.40(34.32N 77.92W)

Caswell Bch KNCCASWE3(33.91N 78.06W)

Cedar Island(35.02N 76.32W)

Jacksonville(34.76N 77.46W)

06/0115982.4

06/0200

06/0950974.0I

06/092006/0228

990.5I

53
65I(10 m)

96I

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
LocationJacksonville(34.80N 77.39W)

Kure Beach KNCKUREB10(34.00N 77.91W)

Southport KNCSOUTH1(33.92N 78.02W)

Southport KG4RGN
Sunset Beach KNCSUNSE6(33.87N 78.51W)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

06/0254987.0I

06/0109982.7

06/0109

05/2339981.7

05/2249

06/0012983.1I

06/001205/2339986.8

05/2329

Wilmington KNCWILMI3

Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

53
60
(20 m)

61I
57

985.8

(34.26N 77.87W)

33

10.24

COOP Sites (NWS)
NWS Wilmington Office

10.80(34.28N 77.91W)

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Sites
Kinston 5 ESE (NC-LR-7)

8.77(35.25N 77.51W)

Smith Creek 0.8 E (NC-NH63) (34.26N 77.85W)
Wilmington 7.3 NE (NC-NH83) (34.29N 77.83W)
Wilmington 8.0 ENE (NC-NH10) (34.25N 77.81W)
Wilmington 6.7 NE (NC-NH81) (34.27N 77.81W)
Wilmington 7.3 NE (NC-NH68) (34.28N 77.81W)

11.36
13.07
12.25
12.13
11.78

Virginia
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
Norfolk (KORF)(36.91N 76.20W)

06/1451999.8

06/1516

37

56

61

72

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
Chesapeake Light (CHLV2)

06/1501(36.91N 75.70W)

Rappahannock Light Tower(RPLV2) (37.54N 76.02W)
S Craney Island (CRYV2)(36.89N 76.34W)

Willoughby (WDSV2)(36.98N 76.32W)

York River (YKRV2)(37.25N 76.33W)

06/17121001.706/1806

06/1336

999.4

06/1148

06/1536

1000.1

06/1318

06/1518

1001.306/1536(37 m)

41(17 m)

34
(8 m)

41
(4 m)

38
(16 m)

49
45
49
45

National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Cape Henry (CHYV2)(36.91N 75.78W)

Cape Henry (CHYV2)(36.91N 75.78W)

06/1542998.4

06/1436

06/1542998.4

06/123950(23 m)

36
(6 m)

61
45

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Chesapeake Channel BBT(CHBV2) (37.03N 76.08W)
Dahlgren (NCDV2)(38.32N 77.04W)

Dominion Terminal (DOMV2)(36.96N 76.42W)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a06/1506

997.0

06/1500

06/19481006.1

06/14121000.8(38.00N 76.46W)

Money Point (MNPV2)(36.78N 76.30W)

Sewells Point (SWPV2)(36.95N 76.33W)

Wachapreague (WAHV2)(37.61N 75.69W)

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

46

58

(14 m)

06/17361005.006/1324998.8

06/1336

1000.406/1624

1000.0

42
(7 m)

35

06/1336(6 m)

43

06/1548(7 m)(37.62N 76.29W

06/1418

1001.4

Storm
tide
(ft)d

3.63

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

3.6

2.03

2.89

2.0

2.95

3.86

2.8

2.03

2.80

2.1

(9 m)

Windmill Point (WNDV2)Yorktown USCG Training
Center (YKTV2)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

36

06/1206
06/1542(37.17N 75.99W)

Lewisetta (LWTV2)Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Kiptopeke (KPTV2)

37

06/1348(10 m)(37.23N 76.48W)

3.69

3.0

3.60

4.26

3.1

2.87

4.53

2.7

2.03

2.32

2.1

2.79

3.60

2.5

Weatherflow
Hampton

06/1247(36.98N 76.34W)rd

3 Island Chesapeake Bay
Brdg Tunnel (37.03N 76.08W)
Tangier Island

06/1454
06/1741(37.78N 75.98W)

36
(7 m)

46
(16 m)

40(16 m)

47
59
46

District of Columbia
NOS Sites
Washington (WASD2)(38.87N 77.02W)

06/2000

1007.6

2.24

3.65

1.9

06/1924

1006.8

2.08

2.70

2.0

06/19421007.3

2.00

2.69

1.9

06/17421004.6

1.98

2.91

2.1

06/18481005.2

2.13

2.92

2.0

06/1924

1007.82.11

06/17541006.506/204206/19121001.706/1948

06/18421005.4MarylandNOS Sites
Annapolis (APAM2)(38.98N 76.48W)

Baltimore, Fort McHenry(BLTM2) (39.27N 76.58W)
Bishops Head (BISM2)(38.22N 76.04W)

Cambridge (CAMM2)(38.57N 76.07W)

Chesapeake City (CHCM2)(39.53N 75.81W)

Cove Point LNG Pier
(COVM2) (38.40N 76.39W)
Ocean City Inlet (OCIM2)(38.33N 75.09W)

Solomons Island (SLIM2)(38.32N 76.45W)

34

1.5

36
(28 m)

39(11 m)

2.05

2.69

1.9

1.98

2.71

2.1

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Tolchester Beach (TCBM2)(39.21N 76.25W)

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

06/1918

1007.606/19121003.806/2048

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

1.90

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

2.0

DelawareNOS Sites
Lewes (LWSD1)(38.78N 75.12W)

34

06/1500

2.68

4.10

2.1

1004.6

2.27

3.67

1.7

06/19541003.3

2.41

4.02

1.6

07/07421007.2

2.36

5.71

2.1

07/0706

1002.4

1.74

2.44

1.5

07/07121003.1

1.58

2.67

1.5

07/0800

1002.707/0930

07/0724

1001.907/094207/07541002.307/0930(12 m)

42

New Jersey
NOS Sites
Atlantic City (ACYN4)(39.36N 74.42W)

Cape May (CMAN4)(38.97N 74.96W)

New York
NOS Sites
Kings Point (KPTN6)(40.81N 73.77W)

Montauk (MTKN6)(41.05N 71.96W)

Connecticut
NOS Sites
New London (NLNC3)(41.36N 72.09W)

Rhode Island
NOS Sites
Conimicut Light (CPTR1)(41.72N 71.34W)

Newport (NWPR1)(41.51N 71.33W)

Quonset Point (QPTR1)(41.59N 71.41W)

37(21 m)

34(11 m)

34
(9 m)

1.57
1.53

3.28

1.46

Massachusetts
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Sites
Nantucket (KACK)(41.25N 70.06W)

07/0853996.2

07/0953

33

44

34

38

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
Buzzards Bay (BUZM3)(41.40N 71.03W)

07/0800

999.8

07/0900

07/0824996.4

07/091207/0812999.4(25 m, 8-min)NOS Sites
Nantucket Island (NTKM3)(41.29N 70.10W)

Woods Hole (BZBM3)(41.52N 70.67W)

35

37(11 m)

2.06
1.61

1.5
2.26

1.4

Total
rain
(in)

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

36

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Date/
time
(UTC)a07/0925

999.9

07/1030

07/0650

999.3

07/1100

07/0941994.4

07/0946

Sustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

35

43

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

Weatherflow
Duxbury (XDUX)(42.06N 70.65W)

Sagamore Beach (XSAG)(41.79N 70.52W)

Wellfleet (XWEL)(41.93N 69.98W)(12 m, 1-min)

35(8 m, 1-min)33(6 m, 1-min)44
43

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Sites
Nantucket 4 WNW (MA-NT1) (41.29N 70.17W)

3.15

Maine
National Ocean Service (NOS) Sites
Eastport (PSBM1)(44.90N 66.98W)

07/2100

995.8

07/190631(14 m)

40

2.25

Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) Sites
Desert Rock (MDRM1)(43.97N 68.22W)

07/1700

997.3

07/162039(22 m)

45

Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS)
Eastport 1 WNW (EPOM1)

3.37(44.91N 67.01W)

CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Baccaro Point, NS(43.45N 65.47W)

Beaver Island, NS(44.82N 62.33W)

07/1600

50

66

07/2100

57

78

Belledune, NB(47.90N 65.85W)

Brier Island, NS

5.17

2.72

9.22

4.13

7.71

4.95

10.79

4.66

9.48

57

(44.25N 66.39W)

Cap-au-Meules, Magdalen
Islands, Quebec(47.38N 61.86W)

Caribou Point, NS

64(45.76N 62.68W)

Charlottetown, PEI(46.23N 63.12W)

Eastpoint, PEI(46.46N 61.99W)

07/2300

51

Eskasoni, NS

55(45.95N 60.6W)

Grand Etang, NS(46.55N 61.05W)

65

08/0700

43

74

Halifax, NS(44.67N 63.58W)

Halifax Dockyard, NS(44.66N 63.58W)

58

2.8

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Halifax Kootenay, NS(44.59N 63.55W)

Hart Island, NS(45.35N 60.98W)

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

07/180050

65

07/2300

48

68

Lower Escuminac, NB(47.08N 64.88W)

Lunenburg, NS(47.06N 64.00W)

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

4.69

8.46

2.9

2.62

11.91

1.71

5.25

54
08/0300

43

57

08/0100

49

66

North Lake, PEI(46.47N 62.07W)

North Mountain, NS

58(45.10N 64.75W)

North Sydney, NS(46.22N 60.25W)

Oxford, NS

5.43(45.74N 63.87W)

Port Hawkesbury, NS

3.48(45.62N 61.37W)

Saint John, NB(45.32N 65.89W)

08/0000

32

Shearwater Jetty, NS

55

Shediac, NB
Sluce Point, NS
07/2200

St. Peters, PEI(46.45N 62.58W)(46.44N 63.84W)

08/0000

30

50

31

53

46

63

Summerside, PEI(46.39N 63.79W)

Tignish, PEI(46.95N 64.00W)

Tracadie, NS(43.83N 66.12W)

4.9

3.54
2.76

12.47

3.94

17.16

2.00

14.90

51

(45.63N 61.66W)

Yarmouth, NS

10.53

77

(43.79N 65.97W)

Summerside, PEI

3.23

6.50

(46.22N 64.55W)(46.42N 63.08W)

7.28

55

(44.64N 63.51W)

Stanhope, PEI

Total
rain
(in)

55

(44.38N 64.32W)

McNabs Island, NS(44.62N 63.54W)
Miscou Island, NB(48.01N 64.49W)
North Cape, PEI

37

07/1900

40

70

07/2100

37

55

Nav Canada
Charlottetown Airport, PEI(CYYG) (46.29N 63.12W)
Greenwood, NS (CYZX)(44.98N 64.92W)

Halifax International Airport,
NS (44.88N 63.51W)

50
54

3.23

Hurricane Dorian

Minimum Sea
Level Pressure
Location

Date/
time
(UTC)

Press.
(mb)

Moncton, NB (CYQM)(46.11N 64.68W)

38

Maximum Surface
Wind Speed
Date/
time
(UTC)aSustained
(kt)b

Gust
(kt)

07/2300

38

54

Sydney Airport, NS

Storm
surge
(ft)c

Storm
tide
(ft)d

Estimated
Inundation
(ft)e

Total
rain
(in)

4.76

56

(46.17N 60.05W)

Other/Public
Colpitts Selltement, NB(45.98N 64.97W)

Grand Etang, NS(46.55N 61.05W)

Henry Island, NS(45.98N 61.60W)

Lower Sackville, NS(44.8N 63.7W)

St. Joseph du Moine, NS(46.53N 61.05W)a08/000342I

07/1950991.9I

07/1850

44I

72I

07/1858

990.2I

07/1858

43I

65I

08/0018973I

08/0018

07/1915

994.6I

07/1915

54I

5.43

(7 m)

45

71

Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based reports are 2 min; buoy averaging
periods are 8 min.
c
Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
d
For most locations, storm tide is water height above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88). Storm
tide is water height above Lower Low Water Large Tide (LLWLT) for Canadian stations.
eEstimated inundation is the maximum height of water above ground. For some USGS storm tide pressure sensors,inundation is estimated by subtracting the elevation of the sensor from the recorded storm tide. For other USGS
storm tide sensors and USGS high-water marks, inundation is estimated by subtracting the elevation of the land
derived from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the recorded and measured storm tide. For NOS tide gauges,
The height of the water above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is used as a proxy for inundation for NOS tidegauges, and Higher High Water Large Tide (HHWLT) for Canadian gauges.
bHurricane Dorian

Table 4.

39

Number of hours in advance of formation associated with the first NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook forecast in the indicated likelihood category. Note that the timings
for the “Low” category do not include forecasts of a 0% chance of genesis.
Hours Before Genesis
48-Hour Outlook

120-Hour Outlook

Low (<40%)

18

18

Medium (40%-60%)

12

12High (>60%)

06Table 5a.

NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) track
forecast errors (n mi) for Hurricane Dorian. Mean errors for the previous 5-yr
period are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the 5-yr
means are shown in boldface type.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

14.3

27.0

38.9

49.5

70.6

109.4

159.7

OCD5

28.0

67.8

116.8

164.1

269.4

386.3

471.2

Forecasts

55

53

51

49

45

41

37

OFCL (2014-18)

23.6

35.5

47.0

61.8

96.0

136.0

179.6

OCD5 (2014-18)

44.8

97.6

157.4

220.1

340.7

446.6

536.6

Hurricane Dorian

Table 5b.

Model ID

40

Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi)for Hurricane Dorian. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown inboldface type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally besmaller than that shown in Table 5a due to the homogeneity requirement.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

14.8

27.1

38.4

48.8

66.5

71.3

102.2

OCD5

28.8

68.9

120.1

170.2

284.0

402.2

548.4

GFSI

16.7

31.2

47.9

63.3

86.2

117.7

172.9

HMNI

23.5

42.7

61.2

80.8

113.8

91.3

130.8

HWFI

19.2

36.0

50.9

65.8

95.6

135.1

212.8

EGRI

16.2

29.8

38.1

42.7

48.9

71.4

121.8

EMXI

16.7

28.1

41.2

54.3

69.2

63.8

93.5

CMCI

19.9

35.8

53.3

72.2

109.1

94.3

172.0

NVGI

20.4

36.5

47.3

57.9

85.7

110.5

175.0

CTCI

17.1

31.3

46.8

57.4

79.6

82.4

115.7

AEMI

17.4

33.0

49.5

65.7

95.7

120.1

164.1

HCCA

16.0

27.6

39.2

49.3

66.9

67.9

101.5

FSSE

15.2

26.2

37.7

45.7

60.3

82.5

123.2

TVCX

15.0

27.1

38.0

48.2

63.9

60.5

94.6

GFEX

15.0

27.7

41.4

54.4

70.5

78.3

115.0

TVCA

14.8

27.5

38.7

48.4

64.2

62.9

98.8

TVDG

14.5

26.6

37.3

45.5

60.9

63.3

97.6

TABD

19.2

39.2

65.6

94.8

172.7

265.1

345.6

TABM

22.5

43.0

59.9

74.3

106.2

158.6

264.1

TABS

30.4

63.8

92.1

115.4

180.7

244.2

348.8

Forecasts

41

41

40

39

34

25

20

Hurricane Dorian

Table 6a.

41

NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) intensity
forecast errors (kt) for Hurricane Dorian. Mean errors for the previous 5-yr period
are shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the 5-yr means
are shown in boldface type.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

6.6

10.7

13.1

14.3

17.8

25.7

38.9

OCD5

8.7

15.3

21.7

25.4

30.4

45.0

54.1

Forecasts

55

53

51

49

45

41

37

OFCL (2014-18)

5.3

7.9

9.9

11.2

13.3

14.4

14.2

OCD5 (2014-18)

6.9

10.9

14.3

17.4

20.9

22.0

22.8

Hurricane Dorian

Table 6b.

Model ID

42

Homogeneous comparison of selected intensity forecast guidance models (in kt)
for Hurricane Dorian. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown inboldface type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller
than that shown in Table 6a due to the homogeneity requirement.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

7.0

11.7

14.2

15.2

18.6

22.1

28.5

OCD5

9.4

15.9

22.0

24.9

32.5

48.5

55.2

DSHP

9.4

14.2

16.9

18.7

21.9

23.6

41.4

LGEM

9.2

14.3

16.8

18.6

19.8

17.1

35.8

ICON

8.5

12.8

15.5

17.0

19.2

23.3

37.0

IVCN

8.7

13.1

15.5

16.4

18.7

22.4

32.9

IVDR

8.6

13.1

16.2

18.1

20.8

25.0

33.9

EMXI

11.1

16.8

21.3

24.0

30.6

32.5

41.6

CTCI

9.9

15.8

17.3

17.1

19.7

19.7

19.3

FSSE

8.4

12.1

14.0

14.7

15.9

19.7

24.2

HMNI

8.9

13.9

17.5

21.0

30.4

40.4

46.2

HWFI

9.8

14.5

18.4

20.4

21.9

30.1

35.4

HCCA

8.2

12.5

14.4

14.7

18.5

23.7

30.2

GFSI

10.3

15.9

22.7

27.3

34.0

33.4

45.5

Forecasts

44

44

42

41

36

29

24

Hurricane Dorian

Table 7.

Wind watch and warning summary for 24 August–7 September 2019.

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

25 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Barbados

25 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Barbados

25 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch issued

St. Vincent, Grenadines

25 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch issued

St. Lucia

25 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

St. Vincent, Grenadines

25 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

St. Lucia

25 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Martinique

25 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Grenada and its dependencies

26 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Dominica

26 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Saba and St. Eustatius

26 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Martinique

26 / 1500

Hurricane Watch issued

St. Lucia

26 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Puerto Rico

27 / 0300

Hurricane Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

St. Lucia

27 / 0600

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Barbados

27 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Puerto Rico

43

Hurricane Dorian

44

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

27 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed to
Hurricane Watch

Puerto Rico

27 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Punta Palenque to Isla Saona and from
Samana to Puerto Plata

27 / 0900

Hurricane Watch issued

Isla Saona to Samana

27 / 1200

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

St. Lucia

27 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

Grenada and its dependencies

27 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

St. Vincent and Grenadines

27 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Isla Saona to Samana

27 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

Dominica

27 / 1800

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Martinique

27 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

Saba and St. Eustatius

27 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning issued

United States Virgin Islands

28 / 0000

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

Punta Palenque to Isla Saona

28 / 0000

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Isla Saona to Samana

28 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch modified toIsla Saona to Puerto Plata

28 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Isla Saona to Samana

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

28 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning issued

British Virgin Islands

28 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning changed
to Hurricane Watch

U.S. Virgin Islands

28 / 1200

Tropical Storm Watch modified toIsla Saona to Samana

28 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning changed
to Hurricane Warning

British Virgin Islands

28 / 1500

Hurricane Watch changed to
Hurricane Warning

British Virgin Islands

28 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

All29 / 0000

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

All29 / 0000

Hurricane Watch discontinued

All29 / 0000

Hurricane Warning discontinued

All

30 / 0900

Hurricane Watch issued

Northwestern Bahamas

30 / 2100

Hurricane Watch changed to
Hurricane Warning

Northwestern Bahamas

30 / 2100

Hurricane Watch issued

Andros31 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

01 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

01 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

01 / 1500

Hurricane Watch issued

Deerfield Beach to Volusia/Brevard CL

45

Hurricane Dorian46

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

01 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toDeerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

01 / 2100

Hurricane Watch modified to

Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

01 / 2100

Hurricane Warning issued

Jupiter Inlet to Volusia/Brevard CL

02 / 0300

Hurricane Watch modified toVolusia/Brevard CL to FL/GA border

02 / 0900

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Andros02 / 0900

Hurricane Warning discontinued

Northwestern Bahamas

02 / 0900

Hurricane Warning issued

Grand Bahama and Abacos

02 / 1500

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Volusia/Brevard CL to FL/GA border

02 / 1500

Hurricane Watch issued

Flagler/Volusia CL to Altamaha Sound

02 / 1500

Hurricane Warning modified to

Jupiter Inlet to Flagler/Volusia CL

02 / 2100

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Flagler/Volusia CL to Altamaha Sound

02 / 2100

Hurricane Watch issued

Ponte Vedra Beach to South SanteeRiver

02 / 2100

Hurricane Warning modified to

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach

03 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Ponte Vedra Beach to Altamaha Sound

03 / 1500

Hurricane Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

03 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

All03 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toPonte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach

03 / 1500

Hurricane Watch modified toPonte Vedra Beach to Edisto BeachHurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

03 / 1500

Hurricane Warning issued

Edisto Beach to South Santee River

03 / 1800

Hurricane Warning changed toTropical Storm Warning

Grand Bahamas and Abaco

03 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

NC/VA border to Chincoteague

03 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toJupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet

03 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toPonte Vedra Beach to Savannah River

03 / 2100

Hurricane Watch modified toPonte Vedra Beach to Savannah River

03 / 2100

Hurricane Watch discontinued

South Santee River to Duck03 / 2100

Hurricane Watch issued

Surf City to NC/VA border

03 / 2100

Hurricane Warning modified to

Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach

03 / 2100

Hurricane Warning discontinued

Edisto Beach to South Santee River

03 / 2100

Hurricane Warning issued

Savannah River to Surf City

04 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toSebastian Inlet to Volusia/Brevard CL

04 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Grand Bahama and Abaco

04 / 0900

Hurricane Warning modified toVolusia/Brevard CL to Ponte Vedra
Beach

04 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning changed
to Hurricane Watch

Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River

04 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toVolusia/Brevard CL to Savannah River47

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

04 / 1500

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Surf City to NC/VA border

04 / 1500

Hurricane Warning discontinued

Volusia/Brevard CL to Ponte Vedra
Beach

04 / 1500

Hurricane Warning modified to

Savannah River to NC/VA border

04 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

NC/VA border to Chincoteague

04 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Chincoteague to Fenwick Island

04 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toFlagler/Volusia CL to Savannah River

05 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning modified
to

FL/GA border to Savannah River

05 / 0300

Hurricane Watch modified to

FL/GA border to Savannah River

05 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach

05 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Martha's Vineyard

05 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Nantucket

05 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toAltamaha Sound to Savannah River

05 / 0900

Hurricane Watch discontinued

All05 / 1500

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

Chincoteague to Fenwick Island

05 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning modified
to

NC/VA border to Fenwick Island

05 / 1800

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Altamaha Sound to Savannah River48

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

05 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach

05 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Martha's Vineyard

05 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Nantucket

05 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Savannah River to Edisto Beach

05 / 2100

Hurricane Warning modified to

Edisto Beach to NC/VA border

06 / 0000

Tropical Storm Warning modified
to

Edisto Beach to South Santee River

06 / 0000

Hurricane Warning modified toSouth Santee River to NC/VA border

06 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Prince Edward Island

06 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Magdalen Islands

06 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Fundy National Park to Shediac

06 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Francois to Boat Harbour

06 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Edisto Beach to South Santee River

06 / 0300

Hurricane Watch issued

Nova Scotia

06 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning issued

South Santee River to Little River Inlet

06 / 0900

Hurricane Warning modified toLittle River Inlet to NC/VA border

06 / 1200

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

South Santee River to Little River Inlet

06 / 1200

Hurricane Warning modified toSurf City to NC/VA border49

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

06 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Bar Harbor to Eastport

06 / 1500

Hurricane Warning modified toBogue Inlet to NC/VA border

06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Prince Edward Island

06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch changed to
Hurricane Watch

Prince Edward Island

06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch changed to
Hurricane Watch

Magdalen Islands

06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch modified toParson's Pond to Boat Harbour

06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove06 / 1800

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Western Nova Scotia to Western Nova
Scotia06 / 1800

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Nova Scotia

06 / 1800

Hurricane Watch issued

Western Nova Scotia to Western Nova
Scotia06 / 1800

Hurricane Watch issued

Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour

06 / 1800

Hurricane Warning issued

Eastern Nova Scotia

06 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch modified toParson's Pond to Triton

06 / 2100

Hurricane Warning discontinued

Bogue Inlet to NC/VA border

07 / 0000

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

NC/VA border to Fenwick Island

07 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Fundy National Park to Shediac

50

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

07 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove07 / 0900

Hurricane Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Western Nova Scotia to Western Nova
Scotia07 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch
discontinued

All07 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Magdalen Islands

07 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island

07 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning issued

Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

07 / 0900

Hurricane Watch discontinued

Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour

07 / 0900

Hurricane Warning issued

Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

07 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach

07 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Martha's Vineyard

07 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Nantucket

08 / 0000

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Bar Harbor to Eastport

08 / 0900

Hurricane Watch changed toTropical Storm Warning

Prince Edward Island

08 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Western Nova Scotia to Western Nova
Scotia08 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Fundy National Park to Shediac

51

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

08 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Prince Edward Island

08 / 1500

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Magdalen Islands

08 / 1500

Hurricane Watch discontinued

All08 / 1500

Hurricane Warning discontinued

Eastern Nova Scotia

08 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove08 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified
toCape Anguille to Fogo Island

08 / 2100

Hurricane Warning discontinued

All09 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning
discontinued

All

52

Hurricane Dorian

Table 8.

53

Storm Surge watch and warning summary for Hurricane Dorian, 24 August–7
September 2019.

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

01 / 1500

Storm Surge Watch issued

North of Deerfield Beach toVolusia/Brevard County Line

01 / 2100

Storm Surge Warning issued

Lantana to Volusia/Brevard County Line

01 / 2100

Storm Surge Watch issued

Lantana to Volusia/Brevard County Line
to Flagler/Volusia County Line

02 / 0300

Storm Surge Watch extended
northward

Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of
St. Mary’s river

02 / 1500

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

Flagler/Volusia County Line

02 / 1500

Storm Surge Watch extended
northward to

Savannah River

02 / 2100

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

Altamaha Sound Georgia

02 / 2100

Storm Surge Watch extended
northward to

South Santee River SC

03 / 0300

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

Savannah River

03 / 1500

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

South Santee River SC

03 / 1500

Storm Surge Watch extended
northward toCape Lookout NC

03 / 1500

Storm Surge Watch discontinued

South of Lantana FL

03 / 2100

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

Surf City NC

Hurricane Dorian54

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

03 / 2100

Storm Surge Watch extended
northward to

Duck NC, including the Pamlico andAlbemarle Sounds and the Neuse andPamlico Rivers

04 / 0300

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward

from Duck NC to Poquoson VA,
including Hampton Roads

04 / 0600

Storm Surge discontinued

South of Sebastien Inlet

04 / 1500

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

NC/VA border, including Albemarle andPamlico Sounds and the Neuse andPamlico Rivers

04 / 1500

Storm Surge discontinued fromPort Canaveral, Florida southward

04/ 2100

Storm Surge Warning extended
northward to

Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton
Roads

05 / 0900

Storm Surge Warning discontinued
south of

Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton
Roads

05 / 0900

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Savannah River

05 / 1500

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Edisto Beach SC

05 / 1500

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of South Santee River SC

05 / 2100

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Little River Inlet

06 / 0000

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

West of Cape Fear

06 / 0600

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Wrightsville
Beach NC

06 / 0900

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Surf City NC

06 / 1200

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

South of Salter Path NC

06/1800

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

Pamlico and Neuse Rivers

Hurricane Dorian

Date/Time(UTC)

ActionLocation

06 / 2100

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

North of NC/VA border

07 / 0000

Storm Surge Warning discontinued

All

55

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 1.

Best track positions for Hurricane Dorian, 24 August−7 September 2019.

56

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 2.

57

Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Dorian
24 August–7 September 2019. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80%
adjustment factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations
include actual 10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of thewind sounding (LLM). Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation
time. SATCON intensity estimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Dashedvertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC, and solid vertical lines correspond to landfalls.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 3.

58

Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Dorian 24 August–7
September 2019. Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation
time. SATCON intensity estimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. KZC P-W
refers to pressure estimates derived using the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney pressure-wind relationship. Dashed vertical lines
correspond to 0000 UTC, and solid vertical lines correspond to landfalls.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 4.

59

Radar reflectivity display of Category 5 Hurricane Dorian approaching Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas
at 1545 UTC 1 September. Radar data courtesy of the Bahamas Department of Meteorology, and image courtesy of
Brian McNoldy, RSMAS, Univ. of Miami.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 5.

60

NOAA buoy 41004 plot of sea-level pressure (mb), 8-min-average wind (kt), and wind gusts (kt) on 5–6 September
2019. The center of Dorian’s eye passed over the buoy at 1600 UTC 5 September when a pressure of 959.2 mb wasmeasured.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 6.

61

NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar reflectivity data at 1230 UTC 6 September showing Dorian’s elliptical-shaped eye
passing over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Image courtesy of GR2Analyst software.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 7.

62

NOS tide gauge observations and USGS storm tide pressure sensor measurements (circles) from portions of the
Carolinas and southeastern Virginia from Hurricane Dorian, converted to feet above Mean Higher High Water,which is used as a proxy for inundation.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 8.

63(a) A USGS pressure sensor installed on a bulkhead on Pamlico Sound in Buxton, NC (highlighted by the white
ellipse). (b) Instantaneous water level (gray, ft above NAVD88), wave-filtered water level (blue, ft above NAVD88)
and barometric pressure (red, in Hg) recorded from the sensor. Images courtesy of the USGS.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 9.

64

Tide gauge and USGS storm tide pressure sensor measurements from the east coast of the United States and the
Bahamas from Hurricane Dorian, converted to feet above Mean Higher High Water, which is used as a proxy for
inundation.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 10.

65

Hurricane Dorian rainfall analysis (inches) during the period 31 August to 9 September 2019, which includes theextratropical phase. Graphic courtesy of the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 11.

66

Roof damage to homes in Brunswick County, North Carolina, caused by an EF2 tornado on 5 September 2019. Picture
courtesy of Brunswick County Sheriff’s Office.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 12.

67

Significant damage to RV-type homes in Emerald Island, North Carolina, caused by an EF2 tornado on 5 September
2019 as Hurricane Dorian was moving northward toward the Outer Banks. Picture courtesy of WCTI-TV12, New Bern.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 13.

68

Extensive damage to residential areas on the northwestern Bahamas due to damaging wind, storm surge, and waves
associated with the passage of Hurricane Dorian.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 14.

Drone footage of the tree damage to the Cavendish area. Photo provided by the Canadian Hurricane Center.

69

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 15.

70

Selected model track forecasts for Dorian at 0000 UTC 26 August 2019. The best track is given by the solid white linewith positions marked with a cyclone symbol at 6 h interval.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 16.

71

Selected official track forecasts (blue lines, with 0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions indicated) for Hurricane
Dorian from 0000 UTC 31 August to 0000 UTC 4 September 2019. The best track is given by the white line with positions
shown at 6 h intervals.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 17.

72

Selected intensity model forecasts (kt) for Dorian at 1800 UTC 27 August 2019. The best track intensity (kt) is given by
the solid white line, with intensity values marked with a cyclone symbol at 6 h interval.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 18.

73

Maximum water levels measured from tide gauges (triangles) and pressure sensors (circles) along the southeastern
United States coast during Hurricane Dorian and areas covered by storm surge watches (lavender) and warnings(magenta). Water levels are referenced as feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), which is used as a proxy for
inundation (above ground level) on normally dry ground along the immediate coastline. Black markers denote waterlevels less than 3 ft above ground level, and white markers denote water levels 3 ft or higher above ground level.

Hurricane Dorian

Figure 19.

74

NWS Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model ensemble members (gray lines) and 10% exceedance heights in feetabove NAVD88 (colors) from the 1500 UTC 1 September forecast for Hurricane Dorian when a storm surge watch was
first issued for a portion of the east coast of Florida. The black solid line depicts Dorian’s best track.