A LOW CARBON SOCIETY
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 2030 IN

VIETNAM
Kyoto University (KU)
Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Team (AIM)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE)
Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN)
Water Resources University (WRU)
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

2

Preface“Consider low carbon economy and green growth as principles in achieving sustainable development; Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission reduction to become a mandatory index insocial and economic development” is one of the main objective of the National Climate
Change Strategy which was approved by the Government of Vietnam in December 2011. Inorder to contribute implementing this and envision a sustainable low carbon society with along-term perspective as well as introduce the measures to realize it, we developed a Low
Carbon Society (LCS) scenario in 2030 in Vietnam. We applied two quantification models todevelop LCS, namely Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) and AFOLUB model, which project
quantitative and consistent future vision consists of socio-economic indicators, GHG emissions, and low carbon countermeasures. This Vietnam LCS scenario covers both energy and
AFOLU sectors.
This study aims to initiate the collaboration with related experts, researchers, authorities
and communities to contribute building a LCS in Vietnam. The methods and results of thisresearch, we hope, would be provided to a policy making process as a starting point of discussion and supporting discussions among stakeholders. More realistic and acceptable LCS
scenario for Vietnam would be defined from the discussion, evaluation and modification byvarious stakeholders.
This brochure was prepared mainly by Kyoto University researchers in collaboration with
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) - Japan, Institute of Strategy and Policy
on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and Water Resources University (WRU). We are gratefulto thank Professor Dao Xuan Hoc in Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)
and Dr. Pham Hoang Luong in Hanoi Science and Technology University (HUST) for their cooperation to share valuable information and comments.

YUZURU MATSUOKANGUYEN VAN TAITRAN THUC

Professor

General Director

General Director

Kyoto University

ISPONREIMHEN

MIKIKO KAINUMANGUYEN QUANG KIM

HIROSHI TSUJIHARA

Project Leader

RectorExpertNIES

Water Resources University

JICA

3

4

Contents
Executive Summary

6

About Vietnam

8

National Environmental Policy on Climate change

12

National Energy Policy

13

Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Policy

14

Concept of “Low Carbon Society”

15

Assumptions of the Future Society

16

Socio-economic Scenario in 2030

20

Energy Demand in 2030

21

GHG emissions in 2030

24

Mitigation Potential in 2030

26

LCS Policy Package for Vietnam

28

Actions towards LCS in 2030

29

Methodology

40

Data Tables

44

Appendices48

References

50

5Executive Summary
This report aims to discuss the possibilityof developing a low carbon society (LCS) in
Vietnam, which consists of future changes indemography, transport, industry, agriculture,
forestry, land use, energy demand andGreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) and
AFOLUB model were used to project GHG
emissions from Energy sectors and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
sectors, respectively.
For energy sector, the methodology involves (i) to deduce the socio-economic indicator, energy demand and GHG emissions ofVietnam in the base year, 2005, (ii) to quantify socio-economic activity level in 2030 according to Vietnam socio-economic development plans and strategies, (iii) to project energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030,and (iv) to propose detail quantitative low

carbon countermeasures.
For AFOLU sectors, the methodology involves (i) developing future assumptions ofharvested areas of crops, livestock animal,
and land use and land use change (LULUCF),(ii) exploring mitigation potential by countermeasures in AFOLU sectors up to 2030 under a wide range of Allowable Abatement
Costs (AAC) for GHG emission mitigation.
GHG emission was projected in two scenarios: (1) Scenario without low carbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as“2030BaU”), which is according to Vietnam
socio-economic development plans and strategies towards 2030; (2) Scenario with low
carbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred to as “2030CM”), which assumes of
employed innovative technologies as well asother low carbon countermeasures to reduce
GHG emissions in 2030.

700
Total emissions reduction
222 MtCO2eq

36% reduction

GHG emissions/reductions (MtCO2eq)

600

Agriculture
Agriculture
21 MtCOeq
21
Mt-CO2eq
2

500

400

LULUCF
LULUCF21
21 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq

Residential
Residential
28 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
28
Commercial
Commercial
10 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq10

4 timesIndustry
Industry
50 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq50300

Passenger Transport
Transport
Passenger
23 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
23

601

200

379

Freight Transport
Transport
Freight
29
MtCOeq
29 Mt-CO2eq
2Power Supply
SupplyPower
39 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
39

GHG Emission

100
151
0
2005

2030BaU

2030 CM

Figure 1. GHG emission and mitigation in Vietnam

6

Total GHG emission in Vietnam was 151
MtCO2eq in 2005, on which, 70 and 81
MtCO2eq come from AFOLU and energy sectors, respectively. Under the 2030BaU scenario, total GHG emission is projected to increases to 601 MtCO2eq or about 4 times
higher than 2005.
In 2005, per capita GHG emissions in Vietnam was 1.8 tones of CO2 equivalent(tCO2eq). In 2030, it is projected to increase
to 5.8 tCO2eq in 2030BaU scenario. It is expected to reduce to 3.7 tCO2eq under
2030CM scenario
The models estimate that total GHG emission can be reduced to 379 MtCO2eq in
2030CM scenario through the adoption ofcountermeasures for mitigating GHG. Total

GHG reduction is 222 MtCO2eq which accounts for 42 and 180 MtCO2eq from AFOLU
and energy sectors, respectively.
To develop a LCS for Vietnam, a package ofpolicy is formulated based on the results ofmodeling (Figure 2). This policy package encompasses several solutions, is a menu ofrecommended Actions which are needed to
be integrated in the development planningfor Vietnam. These Actionss would have to
be considered in the background of the developing countries imperative need of effective governance, financing and technology
transfer.

Residential & Commercial sectors

AFOLU sector

High-efficiency devices and equipment(air condition, cooking stove, lighting,refrigerator, water heating and otherelectric appliances)18.0 MtCO2eq

Establish policies to develop renewable energy from livestock manure
management (bioenergy from CH4)
3 MtCO2eq

Promoting renewable energy andreduce using of fossil fuel14.4 MtCO2eq

Applying midseason drainage; offseason rice straw and replace urea
with ammonium sulphate into rice
paddy management
12 MtCO2eq

Energy saving behavior
6.0 MtCO2eq

Applying high efficiency fertilizer
application into soil management
3 MtCO2eq

Industry sector
High-efficiency devices and equipment(boiler, furnace, motor and so on)
23.5 MtCO2eq
Promoting renewable energy and reduce using of fossil fuel15.8 MtCO2eq
Energy saving by adopting energy
efficient devices
10.9 MtCO2eq

Energy efficient improvement

Transportation sector

Public transport
Transform passenger transport fromvehicle to walking, bicycle, train or
bus.
Transform freight transport fromlarge vehicle to train, ship or boat or
ferry.
13.6 MtCO2eq
Eliminating & alternating old andunqualified vehicles, promoting highenergy efficiency vehicles
37.3 MtCO2eq

Applying high genetic merit and replacement of roughage with concentration technologies into the management of livestock enteric fermentation
3 MtCO2eq

Encouraging environmental & economical-fuel for vehicle such as biofuel
1.4 MtCO2eq

Protection and sustainable management of existing production forest
areas; conservation of existing protection forests and planting fast-growing
trees for lumber
21 MtCO2eq

Power generation sector
Higher generation efficiency improvement
Reduction of transmission loss
Fuel shifting
38.7 MtCO2eq

Lowering GHG intensity

Low Carbon Society in Vietnam
Figure 2. Low Carbon Policy Package for Vietnam

7About Vietnam
National conditions
Geography

ClimateWater resources

Socio-economic overview
Population

Agriculture7

land for agricultural production is about 9.4
million hectares, accounting for 28.2% of thenational land area. Animal husbandry andcultivation are fundamental sectors of agriculture. The relative contribution of agriculture for the country’s economic growth has
gradually reduced due to the fast growth ofindustry and service sectors however it continues to be seen as an important element
for sustainable development and poverty
reduction.
Forestry
Vietnam’s forestry has changed dramatically over time: overexploitation and conversion
to other uses have eroded the forest resource and depleted its biodiversity. Several
decades of intense exploitation and conversion caused forest cover decline from 43 percent in 1943 to about 27 percent in 1990,
but then approaching 40 percent in 2009.
The loss of mangrove forests has been andcontinues to be particularly acute, from 4
thousand km2 in 1943 to less than 0.6 thousand km2 in 2008 (Vietnam Development Report, 2011). Almost two decades of forestation programs have reversed the decline, but
degradation of natural forests das continued.
Alongside with China, Laos PDR, and Cambodia, Vietnam has focused on reforesting
barren land. According to GSO (2006), Vietnam has received over US$200 million
from oversea donors for forest development
over the years and a significant rise in forest
cover from 29.2 percent in 1985 to 37.6 percent in 2005.
By the year 2005, Vietnam has about 15
million hectares of forestland which is officially designated, of which about 13 million
hectare are actually forested and the rest
remaining consists of bare land and denuded
hills (Vietnam Development Report, 2011).
Of the forest land about 10 million hectares
are classified as natural forests and 3 million
hectares plantations. The forest sector con-tributed only 1 percent of GDP in 2005 excluding forest product processing and unrecorded forest product consumption. Researches have shown that the average valueof non-timber forest products in Vietnam’s
natural forests is about $1 billion.

Figure 4. Vietnam’s forest
Land use
Land management policy has played an important role as a root for Vietnam’s rapid
and sustained economic growth and poverty
reduction in the last two decades. Land management in Vietnam has gone through dramatic changes since the start of the economic reform process in mid-1980s. Since 1986,“Renovation” process in Vietnam leads to theswitch from centralized command economy
to a market oriented multi-sector economy.
Land is the property of the entire people, butbuilding constructed on the land can be privately owned. It has brought of great socioeconomic changes in rural areas such as landuse, social division of labour, production organization. In Vietnam, the patterns of land
use have changed considerably, particularly
shifting from crop cultivation to reforestation alongside national policies that encourage reforestation and the combinations ofmany local factors.

9Economic growth
Vietnam stands out as having achieved
high economic growth in recent years. Vietnam has experienced satisfactory economic growth despite its economic difficulties
during the past decade. In 2005, the GDP
grew by over 8.4%. In which, primary sector
contributed 20.7%, secondary and tertiary
sector contributed 40.2% and 39.1%, respectively. The service sector is becoming an important economic area for Vietnam.
Vietnam’s GDP reached $53 billion, bringing
per capita income to $636 per year, in 2005.
According to the Trade Promotion Department (under the Ministry of Trade), foreign
direct investment (FDI) rose up to $5.72 billion, an increase of 25% compared to 2004.
While this economic prospect offers great
opportunities for development of the energy
sector in Vietnam, it also raises concerns
over the protection of the environment.

Figure 5. Road transport in sub-urban
area of Hanoi
Transportation
Current transport infrastructure is inadequate to meet Vietnam’s rapidly growing
needs. To meet the target of industrialization and modernization of the country, thegovernment of Vietnam determines thattransportation is extremely important andshould go ahead of other sectors.
Road transport is the most advanced in

10

Figure 6. Traffic in Hanoi city
terms of privatization and handles the largest volume about 65% (2005) of domestic
passenger and freight transport. Road
transport mainly serves the domestic market, while international road transport account for an insignificant share.
Inland waterway transport has been developed due to the natural endowment of denseriver and canal network, and it ranked thesecond which accounts for 25-30% of total
domestictransported
volume.
Othertransport are maritime, air and railway
transport which accounting for 20% of totaltransport volume.
EnergyIn the last few years, Vietnam had rich fossil energy resource such as oil, gas and coal
which are non-renewable energy and also
well-endowed with renewable in the forms ofhydropower, biomass and solar energy which
can satisfy the basic needs of energy for theinternal socio-economic development as wellas partially export to other countries. Energy
demand in Vietnam has the annual growthrate of 15% for many years in the past, and
18% have been predicted for the period of
2010-2030 by the Institute of Energy (2006).
Currently, energy is explored, transformed,

transported and used with low efficiency
while the self-usage and loss rates are high.
Investments in the energy sector can have asubstantial impact on water quality, air quality and human health, as experiences show.
It becomes increasingly important to address
the potential environmental impacts of energy use and related policies.
Electricity consumption in Vietnam grew at
15.3% over 2000-2005. The electricity consumption per capita in 2005 was 538 kWh
per year, and is expected to increase up to
about 2350 kWh per year by 2020 and over
3096 kWh per year by 2030 (Electricity ofVietnam, 2006, 2008; Institute of Energy,2006).
Total electricity generation capacity in Vietnam in 2007 was 12948 MW, of which Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) facilities accounted

Figure 8. Song Da concrete enterpriseIn

Figure 9. Residential area in Hanoi city

for about 72%, followed by local and foreign
independent power producers (24%) and 4%of power was imported.

2005, export reached $32.2 billion, while
import rose to $36.9 billion. Vietnam's main
exports are crude oil, textiles, garments,
footwear and aquatic products. Main imports
are machinery, equipment, and petroleum
products.

Industry
Most of the industrial zones in Vietnam areconcentrated in three key economic regions,
the North, the Central and the South of Vietnam. The major industries of the country
are food processing, garments, machinery,
fertilizer, shoes, glass, tires, oil, coal, steel,cement and paper.

Heath and education
In 2000, there were 13,117 clinics. Average
life expectancy of Vietnamese people is 67.8.
Viet Nam's basic education lasts for 12
years and is divided into three levels of primary, lower secondary and upper-secondary
schools. The literacy rate for Vietnamese
adults (above 15 years old) is 94%.

Figure 7. Electricity grid in Vietnam

11

National Environmental Policy on Climate Change
Vietnam has formulated and issued a number of legal documents with the target of attaining
the
UNFCCC'so bj e c t i v e :"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
National Climate Change Strategy
The Strategy has been approved by thePrime Minister on 05 December 2011,
through the Decision number 2139/2011/QD-TTg (PM, 2011b) . Main objectives are:1) Ensure food security, energy security,
water security, and so on in the context ofclimate change;(2) Consider low carbon economy and green
growth as principles in achieving sustainable
development; GHG emission reduction andremoval to become a mandatory index in social and economic development.
(3) Take advantage of climate change opportunities for social and economic development; promote climate-friendly behaviors.
(4) Join forces with international communities in addressing climate change; increaseinternational cooperation to address climatechange effectively.
National Target Program to Respond to
Climate Change (NTP-RCC)
The program has been approved by thePrime Minister on December 2008, throughthe Decision Number 158/2008/QD-TTg (PM,2008). This program comprehensively addresses climate change effects, impacts andadaptation responding to sea level rise and
GHG emission mitigation. Its general objectives are: (1) To assess climate change impacts on sectors and regions in specific periods; (2) To develop feasible actions plans toeffectively respond to climate change in the
short-term and long-term to ensure sustainable development of Vietnam; (3) To take opportunities to develop towards a low-carbon
economy; and (4) To join the international

12

community’s effort in mitigating climatechange and protecting the climatic system.
Environmental Policies
Vietnam Agenda 21 policies were approvedby the Prime Minister and issued through theDecision Number 153/2004/QD-TTg (PM,2004), regarding to strengthening the legal
basis for environmental protection, supporting research and development into, andtransfer of, environmentally friendly technologies, and stipulating Vietnam’s active participation in international activities related
to the 1992 UNFCCC.
The Law on Environmental Protection Number 52/2005/QH11 dated 29th November
2005 (replaces the 1993 Law on Environmental Protection) (National Assembly, 2005).
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): Kyoto Protocol regulates the creation and trading of emission reduction credits. The CDM
is functioning in Vietnam but not yet on alarge scale. Barriers to full development of
the CDM in Vietnam include lack of awareness in the business community, lack of high-risk investment capital, lack of appreciation
among officials of the benefits of CDM projects, and limited capacities. In addition, current regulation requires that all ODAsupported credits under the CDM accrue tothe Vietnam Environment Fund and not tothe project owners. It is critical that Vietnam
addresses these barriers and takes full advantage of the CDM. Many investments in
Vietnam could benefit from the CDM. Vietnam has not yet started to explore carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technologies,
which are expensive, but capacity building
related to these important technologies isneeded, for example, because the location of
power plants built in the near future will determine the potential application of CCS in
the long term.

National Energy Policy
National Energy Development Strategy(NEDS) in the period up to 2020, perspective up to 2050 (PM, 2007a)
The NEDS has been approved by the Prime
Minister Decision Number 1855/2007/QDTTg dated December 27th 2007 in order tomeet the increasing national electricity demand in a sustainable manner. The main
points in this strategy are energy resource
development (to strengthen exploration ofindigenous resources), security of domestic
primary energy supply (to strengthen domestic energy supply capacity), energy conservation and energy efficiency (the specific targets are saving 3% to 5% energy consumption
during 2006-2010 and 5% to 8% during 20112015), development of renewable energy resource (share of renewable energy in electricity production is account for 3%, 5% and 10%
by the years 2010, 2025 and 2050, respectively), environmental protection consideration from damages caused by energy activities and so on.
National Power Development Plan for period 2011-2020
with perspective up to2030 (PDP VII) ( PM, 2011b).
Decision number 1208/QD-TTg dated July
21st 2011 on approval of the fourth national
power development plan prepared by Institute of Energy under the management of
Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT). This
plan is an important legal base for ministries, sectors, local authorities to carry ourmanagement, implementation of power development plans, contributing in nationalsocio-economic development.
Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation No. 50/2010/QH12 (National Assembly,
2010)
This Law has been approved by Vietnam
National Assembly in June 17th, 2010. The
Law includes policies and measures to promote energy efficiency and conservation(EE&C); prescribing EE&C; and the rights, obligations and responsibilities of organizations, households and individuals in EE&C.
Subjects of application are focus on organi-zations, households and individuals using
energy in Vietnam.
Master Plan for Coal Development up to2015, a vision towards 2025 (PM, 2008b)
In 2005, MoIT has formulated his master
plan, which focuses on coal exploration, production and processing activities along with
their specific targets. Moreover, establishingcoal market by 2015 in order to enhance thesecurity of energy supply is included.
Master Plan on Vietnam Oil and Gas Sector Development up to 2015, and orientation up to 2025 (PM, 2009)
In 2006, MoIT has approved this master
plan, whose main points are promotion of oil
and gas exploration activities and increasing
security of oil and gas supply along with
their specific targets. In order to improve thesecure and efficient use of oil and gas supply, oil and gas market will be formulated
and operated by 2015.
Master Plan for Renewable Energy Development for the period up to 2015, with outlook to 2025 (IE, 2008)
The government of Vietnam has formulated
this master plan in 2008. This plan evaluates
the potential sources of renewable energy incountry. One of the specific targets is to increase the share of renewable energy in total
primary energy supply by 3.4% (2020) and 7%(2050). The others include increasing theshare of renewable energy in power generation 3% (2010), 5% (2025) and 10% (2050).
Master Plan on Nuclear Power Development up to 2030 (PM, 2010)
The Prime Ministry of Vietnam has approved this plan through the Decision Number 906/QD-TTg, dated June 17th 2010, regarding to which targeted at gradually building and developing Nuclear power sector in
Vietnam. According to this Master Plan, there
will be 13 Nuclear Power plants in 2030 in
Vietnam, with total capacity of 15,000 MW,
comprising 10% of total electrical capacity.

13Agriculture, Forestry and Land-use Policy
Since doi moi in 1986, Vietnam has moved
from a centrally planned economy where agricultural production was under the controlof the State to a socialist-orientated market
economy where farm households have moreindividual control over their production activities. A series of policies and laws in the
agricultural sector, especially concerning
land use were issued. The most important
policies were the Land Law (1993) and its
revised versions (1998, 2001), the new Land
Law (2003) and Ordinances 64/CP (1993) and
02/CP (1994) of the government dealing withthe regulation of agricultural and forestry
land allocation. There were also other policies that were directly related to land issues
as well as supportive policies indirectly related to land issues.
Currently, agricultural land in Vietnam isconsidered to be owned by the people as awhole and ‘the State is the representative of
the people’s ownership of land’. In Vietnam
there are ceilings on land holdings, and agricultural land tax must generally be paid on
land held over the land limit. The agricultural land use tax in Vietnam was based on Decree 031/SL (1951). This has changed to be a
tax on both land and land use benefits since
the Ordinance on Agricultural Tax (1983)
and the Tax on Agricultural Land Use Law(1993) were issued.
In 2003, the exemptions and reductions to
the agricultural land use tax were announced
under Resolution 15/2003/QH11 (17 June
2003) and Ordinance 129/2003/ND-CP (3November 2003).
Forestry policy was set at priority consideration of country’s policies. In 1998, the government’s main policy for forestry investment has been the Five Million Hectare Reforestation Programme, in which three million ha for protection forest and two million
for production forest. However, first one wasalmost reached while second target was
failed. Moreover, inappropriate planning,lack of budgeting, corruption caused the failure of the progamme.

14

In the year 2007, under a national review,
the program was amended and a new Policyon Production Forest Development was introduced to provide subsidies for growing
timber and support for forest infrastructureand extension services. The Prime Minister
has approved Decision No. 18/2007/QD-TTg,
Vietnam’s Socio-Economic
Development
Strategy 2001–2010 provides a number ofdevelopment objectives for the forest sector
including increasing overall forest cover to43%, completing the allocation of forestland
to socialize forestry development and promoting forestry-based livelihoods, stabilizing
cultivation practices and preventing the destruction and burning of forests, and accelerate commercial reforestation to provide material for domestic and export-oriented industries.
In this strategy of forestry development ofVietnam (VFDS), there are the Program on
Sustainable Forest Management and Development; Program on Forest Protection, Biodiversity Conservation, and Environmental Services Development; Program on Forest Products Processing and Trade.

Concept of “Low Carbon Society”
What is a “Low Carbon Society”?
A low-carbon society (LCS) is a sustainably
developed or developing society on the basisof close, reasonable and harmonious coordination of economic and social development
and environmental protection. In the society, environmental protection will be given
the same level of attention as other socioeconomic development issue.
The concept of a low carbon society has thefollowing attributes:
1. To take actions that are compatible withthe principles of sustainable development,
ensuring that the development needs aremet for all groups within the society.
2. To make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other

GHG at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change, through deep cuts in global
emissions.
3. To demonstrate a high level of energy
efficiency and use low carbon energy sources
and production technologies.
4. To adopt patterns of consumption andbehavior that are consistent with low levelsof GHG emission.
A LCS framework has not merely GHG
emission reduction. It also helps in achieving
national development targets especially effective and sustainable development.

Climate change activities in Vietnam and why we need LCS
Vietnam, known as one of the poor countries, would be the most seriously affectedby climate change, especially by sea levelrise. IPCC (2007) estimated that the sea level
will rise from 30cm to 1m over the next 100
years. Climate change could increase Vietnam’s exposure to extreme weather andcould cause a yearly capital loss in Vietnamof up to 17 billion USD (World Bank, 2008).
Being aware of this danger, Vietnam Government signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in June 1992 and ratified it on 16
November 1994. Vietnam ratified Kyoto Protocol on 25 September 2002. On 17 October
2005, the Prime Minister of Vietnam has issued a Directive on the implementation of
Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC, which instructs
various ministries and government agencies,
as well as provincial/municipal People's
Committee, to effectively implement the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the
Kyoto Protocol. Article 12 of the Kyoto Pro-

tocol created CDM to assist developing countries including Vietnam in achieving sustainable development. CDM projects in Vietnam
play an important role in sustainable socioeconomic development, improvement of people’s living conditions and poverty reduction
through income and employment generation
together with environmental protection in
the country.
Currently, Vietnam is not obligatorily committed to reduce CO2 emissions but it haveto achieve sustainable socio-economic development. In the view of long term development, if it does not have any intervention ofabatement countermeasures, Vietnam willcontribute a significant CO2 emission which
will make global warming worsen. Thesechanges have direct impact on environment,
and society in Vietnam. In order to prevent
this peril, socio-economic development in
Vietnam must go hand in hand with lowcarbon society’s development.

15

Assumptions of the Future Society
Population and number of household
In this study, the year 2005 was chosen as
the base year to analyze current state and is
the starting point of projection because of
its availability of statistic information in Vietnam. The year 2030 was chosen as the final year of projection and the goal of LCS,
because it is also one of the target years
adopted current Vietnam national socioeconomic development plan. Two scenarios
are developed: (1) Scenario without low carbon countermeasures (hereinafter referred
to as 2030BaU), which is according to Vi-

The future picture about economy, society,commercial, energy and transport in Vietnam in 2030 is depicted in following parts(Table 1).

9

30
25
20
15

30

10

20

5

GDP - real growth rate (%)

35

8.5

8
7.2

7
6
4.8

7.7

8.2

8.5
6.8
6.2

6

5.5

5

5.3
4.7

4
3
2
1

Figure 10. Number of household

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2030

2001

2005

2000

0

0

1999

No. of household ('000 000)

etnam socio-economic development plans
and strategies towards 2030; (2) Scenario
withlowcarboncountermeasures(hereinafter referred to as 2030CM), whichassumes of employed innovative technologies as well as other low carbon countermeasures to reduce GHG emissions in 2030.

Figure 11. Real GDP growth rate (%)
in the period 1999-2010 (CIA, the World factbook)

Table 1. Quantitative socio-economic assumption in 2030
Indicator

Quantification (2030BaU scenario)

Tendency to

Population

104 million people

Growth rate at 0.9 % per annum

Demographic composition[Male] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 and over:
5.8%[Female] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 andover: 7.4%
3.5 (4.2 in 2005)

Number of male births are higher thanfemale births

Average number of persons
per household
GDP

6.5%

Industrial structure[Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry]: 17% (22% in2005)[Industry, Construction]: 43% (41% in 2005)[Service]: 40% (37% in 2005)
Contribution of export in GDP: 29% (29% in
2005)

Demand structure
Transport

16

Passenger transport:[Train] 0%, [Bus] 0.6%, [Waterway] 0.6%, [Car]0.3%, [Motorbike] 8.3% [Walk & Bike] 90%,
[Aviation] 0.1%
Freight transport:[Train] 2%, [Waterway] 27%, [Truck] 71%,
[Aviation] 0%

Slight decrease in average size of household
Average annual growth rate during theperiod 2005 - 2030
Sectoral share of primary industry has adecrease trend, whilst secondary andtertiary industry have an increasing
trend.
Export maintains its share in GDP
Drastically increase of private vehicles
especially motorbike and car

Keep its role the same as the base year
2005

Macro economy
We referred to the average GDP growth rate
for the period 2021-2030 is equal to that ofthe period 2001-2010 (the 2011-2020 Socioeconomic Development Strategy ) of 7.5%
(Figure 11). However, the country has been
experienced the slow economic growth last
several years. Therefore, in this study, we
assumed annual average GDP growth ratefrom 2005 to 2030 is 6.5%.
The economic structure of Vietnam continues to move toward a more industrialized
economy as experienced during the last decades (GSO, 2011). According to 2011-2020

Socio-economic Development Strategy, Vietnam will be an industrialized country in2020. The share of agriculture-forestryfishery sector is assumed declining, in contrast to the other sectors in 2030 (Figure 12).
Final demands (consumption expenditure,gross fixed capital formation and export) are
assumed to increase by a rate of 6.5% (thesame as GDP growth rate) of an annual average. Table 2 shows the setting of the otherfinal demand in 2030.

Table 2. Macro-economic indicators (trillion VND)

2005

2030

2005

2030/
2005
Trillion VND

Indicator

2030

1698

1573

GDP

818

3,963

4.8

GDP/capita (mil VND)

10

38

3.9

Final consumption

594

2,861

4.8

Fixed capital formation

307

1,481

4.8

Exports

562

2,713

4.8

Imports

644

3,092

4.8

Figure 12. Contribution of industries to
GDP in 2030 (trillion VND)

Passenger transport
Due to both economic growth and large
expansion in population in future, transportdemand is projected to progress significantly. Per capita passenger transport demand isassumed to increase from 2 trip/(capita.day)in 2005 to 2.7 in 2030. Therefore, passenger
transport volume is estimated to be 103.4
billion trip/year.
The modal shares in passenger transport in
2030 BaU are proposed as follows: [Train]0%, [Bus] 0.6%, [Waterway] 0.6%, [Car] 0.3%,[Motorbike] 8.3%
[Walk & Bike] 90%,
[Aviation] 0.1%. We assumed that there is a
drastically increase of private vehicles especially motorbike and car compared to theyear 2005.
Freight transport
In the 2030BaU case, freight transport demand per output by industry is assumed toincrease 1.2 times of the base year due togrowth of industry sector, accounts for 0.35
tonne/millionVND/day. Freight transportalso relies predominantly on roads as andthis transport mode is projected to keep itsrole in future the same as the base year
2005, almost 71% of the total freight volume,
followed by domestic waterway accountingfor 27% and only 2% by train. Freight volume
carried by aviation is negligible. Average distance is assumed to be same as those in
2005.

693
338
176
Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

Industry

304

Services

Transportation17

Crop harvested area
The principal sources of GHG emissions in
the agriculture sector are rice cultivation,
livestock, and managed soils.
The future picture about production of agriculture and livestock industry, and landuse change in Vietnam in 2030 is depicted asfollows.
In Vietnam, rice was the biggest harvested
area, which accounted for 75% and 66% of
total harvested areas of crops in 1970 and
1990, respectively (FAOSTAT, 2012). In 2000,
Vietnam had 7.7 million hectare of paddy
rice, which comprised of 39% of spring paddy, 30% of autumn paddy and 31 % of winterpaddy (GSO, 2010). However, due to urbanization and industrialization, harvested paddy rice area declined from 7.7 million hectare in 2000 to 7.4 million hectare in 2005.
Harvested paddy rice area in Vietnam is expected to further decrease in the future by
7.3 and 7.2 million hectare respectively in2020 and 2030 (Figure 13).
Regarding to maize, which is the second
large crops in Vietnam, the harvested area
increased gradually from 0.7 million hectare
in 2000 to more than 1.1 million hectare in2010. It will reach to 1.4 million hectare in2020 and keep stable until 2030. Between
2000 and 2010, sugar cane and oil crop areas were almost 0.9 million hectare, accounted for about 7% of total harvested areas. This
proportion was assumed to be remained almost the same in future years. Harvested
areas of industrial crops (tea, coffee, rubberetc.) increased gradually from 1.0 million
hectare and reached 1.1 million hectare in2010. They were assumed to be constant in
the future. Harvested areas of other crops(vegetables, fruits, tree nuts and so on) increased from 2.0 million hectare in 2000 to
2.6 million hectare in 2010 and were assumed to be unchanged in 2020 and 2030.

9000
Rice (Total)

Area (000 ha)

8000
7000

Rice (Irrigated)

6000

Rice (Rainfed)

5000

Maize

4000

Vegetables, fruit, treenuts,
roots, pulses and tubers

3000

Oil crops
2000
Sugar cane

1000
0
2000

2010

2020

2030

Tea, coffee, rubber, cotton,
tobacco, pepper and juteFigure 13. Future scenario of harvested area of crops

Livestock population
Cattle (buffalo and cow) and poultry(chicken and duck) are the main type of livestock in Vietnam. Between 2000 and 2010,
cattle increased from 4.1 million heads to 8.0
million heads, of which dairy cattle accounted for more than 97% of total number of cat-18

tle. In order to satisfy for domestic supply,
amount of cattle will increase more than 1.7
times between 2010 and 2030 and reach 14
million heads in 2030, of which 1 million
heads are dairy cattle and 13 million heads
are beef cattle.

Number of buffaloes is still expected to remain at 2.9 million heads from 2010 until
2030.
Number of swine is expected to increase
sharply in the future. Ministry of Agriculture
and Rural Development (MARD, 2011) planed
that there will have 35 and 49 million headsof swine in 2020 and 2030, respectively.
There is no plan to increase the number ofsheep, goats and horses in the future, hence
amount of those livestock animals in 2030
was assumed to be remained unchanged asthat in 2010 (Figure 14).

400000

dairy cattle

12000

beef cattle

10000

buffaloes

8000
goats
6000
horses

4000

0
2000

2010

2020

chickens

300000ducks

250000200000150000100000
50000

sheep

2000

swines

350000

Animal (000 head)

14000

0
2000

2030

2010

2020

2030

Figure 14. Scenarios of livestock population from 2000 to 2030

Land use change
other wooded land etc. Other land is calculated as subtracting total of area of forestland, grassland, cropland, settlements andinland water from country area. In thisstudy, we did not take into account emission
from fires and natural disturbance.

35
30
Other land

25

Settlements

20

Cropland

15

Grassland
10
Forestland
5

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

0
2000

In Vietnam, the patterns of land use havechanged considerably, particularly as some
farmers have shifted from crop cultivation toreforestation which has conducted alongsidenational policies to encourage reforestation
activities.
Forestland increased from 9.3 million hectare in 1990, which equates to 39% of total
land area, to 12.6 and 13.6 million hectare in2005 and 2009, respectively. Cropland areas
were increased from 6.1 to 8.1 million hectare between 1970 and 1990 (FAOSTAT,
2012).
According to Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment (MONRE, 2010), forest areas in Vietnam is expected to reach 14.1 and14.5 million hectare in 2020 and 2030, respectively.
Cropland area will slight decrease from 9.9
to 9.8 million hectare between 2020 and
2030 due to the decline of rice field area.
Other land was defined as the land not classified as the other categories. It includes
built-up and related land, barren land andArea (mil. ha)

Animal (000 head)

16000

Figure 15. Future scenarios of land use change
in Vietnam

19

Socio-economic Scenario in 2030
Scenario quantification
Table 3. shows the main results of the socio-economic indicators in Vietnam in 2030.
With annual growth rate of 0.9%, population in 2030 increased 1.3 times compared
to 2005, whereas increase of household
number was slightly larger because of smaller size of household. With annual growthrate of 6.5%, GDP increased almost 5 times in
2030 compared to 2005. In which, GDP contributed by secondary and tertiary sectors

increased much higher than primary sector.
Passenger and freight transport increased
2.4 and 6.1 times in 2030 compared to 2005,
respectively. Freight transport would increase faster than passenger transport because of rapid development of industry sector in the future.
Output by industry in 2030 was calculatedby the model and shown in Table 4.

Table 3. Estimated socio-economic indicators in 2030 in Vietnam
20052030 BaU

2030 CM

2030BaU/2005

2030CM/2005

Population (million people)

83.1

104.0

104.0

1.3

1.3

No. of households (million)

20.0

29.7

29.7

1.5

1.5

GDP (trillion VND)

818.5

3,963

3,963

4.8

4.8

Gross output (trillion VND)

1,934

9,750

9,750

5.0

5.0

Primary industry (trillion VND)

404

1,684

1,684

4.2

4.2

Secondary industry (trillion VND)

1,033

5,497

5,497

5.3

5.3

Tertiary industry (trillion VND)

497

2,569

2,569

5.2

5.2

223,981542,687

518,0282.4

2.3

38,856235,212235,124

6.1

6.1

Passenger transport demand (million
people-km)
Freight transport demand (million tonkm)

Table 4. Output by industry
Output (trillion VND)
2005
Primary industry

2030/2005

2005

2030

2030/2005

404

1684

4.2

21

17

Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

261

1026

3.9

14

11

Mining and quarrying

143

658

4.6

7

7

1033

5497

5.3

53

56

Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures

259

1213

4.7

13

12

Other consumer goods

285

1908

6.7

15

20

Industrial materials

182

888

4.9

9

9

Capital goods

127

622

4.9

7

6

Construction

179

866

4.8

9

9

Tertiary industry

497

2569

5.2

26

26

Total

1934

9750

5.0

100

100

Sencondary industry

20

2030

Composition (%)
ratio (%)

Energy Demand in 2030
Final energy demand
Results show that the annual total final energy requirement of residential, commercial,industrial and transport sectors is expected
to increase annually at 5.1% (2030BaU) and
4.0% (2030CM) over the outlook period, from44 million tones equivalent (Mtoe) in 2005 to
154 Mtoe in 2030BaU scenario and 120 Mtoe
in 2030CM scenario. The projected final energy demand growth in 2030BaU scenario ishigher than the past decade of 4.4% between
1995 and 2005.
Regarding to the target of being a industrialized country, energy demand in industrial
sector is expected to increase dramaticallyand being the largest consumer of final energy – almost 41% and 45% in 2030BaU and
2030CM scenarios, respectively.
The share of energy demand by residential
sector is projected to be reduced substantially from 59% in 2005 to 30% in 2030BaU scenario and to 32% in 2030CM scenario, as aresult of a reduction of the demand for tradi-

180

100%

160

4%

90%

10
140
Energy demand (Mtoe)

tional fuels for cooking. It is followed bytransport sector, accounting for 23% and 16%
in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios, respectively.
The finding shows that the shares of industrial and transport sectors are expected toincrease in future, while the share of residential sector decreases. This is because of continued trends of industrialization and increasing population and travel demand. It
can be said that energy consumption of industrial and transport sectors highlight theimportant role of these sectors in Vietnam’s
energy sector in future.
Compared to other sectors, the share of
final energy consumption of commercial sector is smaller, which account for only 6% in
2030BaU scenario and 7% in 2030CM scenario.
Figure 16 & 17 show final energy demandand its share by sector.

62

8

41%

70%

53

50%
59%

40%
60

46

40

10

20

26

0
2005

2
21
14
2030 BaU

Commercial

Industry

Freight transport

Passenger transport

30%
32%

30%
37

4
3

45%

60%

100
80

7%

22%

80%

120

6%

12
7
2030CM
Residential

Figure 16. Final energy demand by sector

20%

14%

10%

8%
7%

9%

6%

2005

2030 BaU

2030CM

10%
0%

Commercial

Industry

Freight transport

Passenger transport

Residential

Figure 17. Share of final energy demand bysector21

Primary energy demand
The primary energy demand is projected toincrease 3.8 times from 50 Mtoe in 2005 toabout 197 Mtoe in 2030BaU scenario, increasing annually at 5.5% over the outlook
period.
Commercial energy sources are expected toincrease rapidly and surpass traditional energy sources (biomass) in 2005, account for
more than 80% of the primary energy mix.
Consequently, the share of biomass is decreased substantially from 46% in 2005 to 13
and 16% in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios,
respectively. This could be explained by thefact that due to improved living standards
and rural electrification, a huge amount of
population will have access to modern energy, resulting in a reduction in biomass demand.

Among the fossil fuels, petroleum products
are expected to continue to account for thelargest share in total primary energy demand, mainly utilized in the transportationand industrial sectors.
Coal and natural gas demand are projected
to be increased driven by sharp increase of
the electricity and industrial sectors, accounting for almost 33% and 14% of total
primary energy demand, respectively in
2030BaU scenario.
The shares of nuclear and solar & wind areprojected to account for 2% and 6% in
2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios, respectively.
Figure 18 & 19 show primary energy demand and its share by fuel.

250

100%
90%

200
Energy demand (Mtoe)

26
11
150

80%
2

5
3

21

50%

50
5
12
8
2005
Oil

Gas

33%
30%

24%

20%

Biomass
0

64

10%

40

33%

28%

16%

0%
2030 BaU
Hydro power

Nuclear2005

2030 CM
Solar & Wind

Biomass

Figure 18. Primary energy demand by fuel

22

4%

40%
30%

Coal

14%

10%

43

2

4%
2%
6%
15%

9

23

6%

60%

23

66

16%

46%

70%

27

100

13%
1%
1%

Biomass

Solar & Wind

2030 BaU
NuclearHydro power

2030 CM
Gas

Oil

Coal

Figure 19. Share of primary energy demand byfuelElectricity generation
crease of nuclear and renewable energy,
which are substituted for coal, are considered as an important role to play in ensuring
the security of energy supply, through a diversification of fuel mix and in making energy activities towards low carbon economy. In
addition, other renewable energy such as biomass, solar and wind are expected to produce electricity in 2030.
Energy demand for electricity generationand share of electricity consumption by sector are shown in Figure 21 and 22.

Figure 20 shows that, from 2005 to 2030,
the share of hydro is expected to decrease
from 19% to 14% (2030BaU) and 16%(2030CM). By contrast, coal-fired electricity
generation is expected to increase considerably and take a biggest share at 46% and 40%
in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios, respectively, an almost two-fold increase over2005. The share of gas-fired electricity generation is projected to decrease to 4% and 3%
in 2030BaU and 2030CM scenarios, respectively. Meanwhile, the share of nuclear poweris expected to increase to 2% in 2030BaU scenario and 6% in 2030CM scenario. The in-

3%2030 CM

40%

3%

27%

16%

6%

4%

2% 2%
2030 BaU

4%

46%

2005

23%

0%
Oil

Gas

14%

51%

7%

20%

Coal

27%

40%
Hydropower

5%

19%

60%
Nuclear

80%
Solar wind100%
Biomass

Figure 20. Electricity generation mix
90

120%

80

4
2

Energy demand (Mtoe)

70

1

0%
1%

0%
1%

100%

1%
1%

11

60

80%

21

50
40

3

3
9
15

20

2

37
2
5

0
2005
Biomass

Solar wind

54%

57%

10%

8%

35%

33%

2030BaU

2030CM

60%
9%

30

10

48%

2
2

40%

20%

42%

21

1
2

0%

2030BaU
NuclearHydropower

2005

2030 CMGas

Oil

Figure 21. Energy demand for electricity
generation

Coal

Freight Transport
Commercial

Passenger Transport
Residential

Industry

Figure 22. Share of electricity consumption
by sector

23

GHG Emissions in 2030
The finding shows that total GHG emission
in 2030BaU in Vietnam is expected to increase to 601 MtCO2eq or about 4 times
higher than 2005 level.

0.20

tCO2/bill-VND

0.14

5.8

t-CO2/capita

5.0

0.12

0.10

0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04

3.7

4.0

0.02
0.00

3.0
2.0

0.15

0.16

7.0
6.0

0.18

0.18

2005

2030BaU

2030CM

1.8

1.0

Figure 24. Total GHG emissions in Vietnam
in 2030

0.0
2005

2030BaU

2030CM

Figure 23. Per capita GHG emissions
in Vietnam
In 2005, per capita GHG emissions in Vietnam was at 1.8 tCO2eq. In 2030, this number is projected to increases to 5.8 tCO2eq in
2030BaU scenario. It is expected to reduce to
3.7 tCO2eq under 2030CM scenario (Figure23). GHG emission intensity is 0.18 tCO2eq/
billion-VND in 2005.

The GHG emission intensity is further reduced to 0.15 tCO2eq/billion-VND in
2030BaU scenario. In 2030CM scenario records a reduction of almost 50% from baseyear to achieve 0.10 tCO2eq/billion-VND(Figure 24). Per capita GHG emission shows
an increase from 2005 to 2030BaU, but the
GHG emission intensity shows a reduction.
This is because when GHG emission is estimated against the GDP, a reduction is identified.

GHG emissions in Energy sectors

2030BaU scenario, respectively.

600

500

CO2 emissions (MtCO2)

GHG emissions in energy sector increased
6.4 times of that of 2005 in 2030BaU scenario, and 4.2 times the 2030CM scenario. GHG
emission is expected to increase rapidly as aresult of increasing use of fossil fuels. The
total emissions in 2005 were about 81
MtCO2eq. This figure is expected to increase
to 522 and 342 MtCO2eq by 2030 in BaU andCM scenarios, respectively. The major contributors to GHG emission include industrial
sector (49% of total GHG emissions in
2030BaU scenario), followed by transportand residential sectors which account for
21% and 22% of total GHG emissions in the

67
47

400

257
38

300

23

200

185
41

100

0

10
39
15
2005

11

110

28
68

6
2030 BaU

Commercial

Industry

Freight transport

Passenger transport

2030 CM
Residential

Figure 25. GHG emissions by sector in energy sectors

24

GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors
Total GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors in
2030 are expected to reach 79 MtCO2eq.
In agricultural sector, CH4 is the largest
GHG emission, followed by N2O. The major
sources are rice cultivation (CH4), livestock(CH4 and N2O) and then managed soil
(N2O). GHG emissions in agricultural sector
in 2000 was 62 MtCO2eq, and gradually
increased to 65 and 72 MtCO2eq in 2005
and 2010, respectively. After that, theemission is expected to increase graduallyto 85 MtCO2eq in 2030.
For LULUCF sector, main source of GHG

is from forest and grassland conversion,
followed by emission and removal fromsoils. Total GHG emissions from forestry
and land use change are expected to decline gradually from 5 MtCO2eq in 2005 to
3 MtCO2eq in 2010, respectively. After
2015, LULUCF is expected to be a net sequestration of CO2, with amounts of -3 and-6 MtCO2eq, respectively in 2020 and 2030.

140
Emission andand removals
removals fromfrom soils
soils (CO2)
Emission(CO2)
Forest andand grassland
grassland conversion
conversion (CO2)Forest(CO2)
Changes in forest and other wood
Changes in forest and otherbiomass
stocks stocks(CO2) (CO2)woodybiomass

120

GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)

100
80
60

Managed soils (N2O)Managed soils (N 2O)

40

Rice cultivations (CH4)
Rice cultivations (CH4)20

ManureManure management
management (N2O)(N 2O)

0

ManureManure management
management (CH4)
(CH4)

-20
Enteric fermentation
fermentation (CH4)(CH4)
Enteric

-40
Total
-60
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

Figure 26. GHG emissions in AFOLU in 2030BaU

25

Mitigation Potential in 2030
Total GHG emissions in Vietnam is projected to be reduced from 601 MtCO2eq in the
2030BaU scenario to 379 MtCO2 in the
2030CM scenario by adoption of low carbon
countermeasures for mitigating GHG emissions in 2030 (Figure 27). The reductions of
GHG emissions by types of low carbon countermeasures are shown in Figure 28.
In energy sectors, among the countermeasures, energy efficiency improvement and fuelshift in power sectors account for the largest
proportion, 38.7 MtCO2, followed by efficient
vehicles in freight transport sector (23.9
MtCO2), energy efficiency improvement inindustry (23.5 MtCO2).
In AFOLU sector, we have estimated mitiga-

tion potential by several Allowable Abatement Costs (AAC) for reduction. In this brochure, for mitigation countermeasures andactions, we discuss only the mitigation potential under 10 USD/tCO2eq. In this case,both agriculture and LULUCF are expected toreduce GHG emissions altogether 42
MtCO2eq which account for halving 21
MtCO2eq for each sector.
In order to realize a LCS, Vietnam needs tohave new set of strong policies to encourageand promote these low carbon countermeasures.

700
Total emissions reduction
222 MtCO2eq

36% reduction

GHG emissions/reductions (MtCO2eq)

600

Agriculture
Agriculture
21 MtCOeq
21
Mt-CO2eq
2

500

400

LULUCF
LULUCF21
21 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq

Residential
Residential
28 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
28
Commercial
Commercial
10 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq10

4 timesIndustry
Industry
50 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq50300

Passenger Transport
Transport
Passenger
23 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq23

601

Freight Transport
Transport
Freight
29 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
29

200

379

Power Supply
SupplyPower
39 Mt-CO2eq
MtCO2eq
39

GHG Emission

100
151
0
2005

2030BaU

2030 CM

Figure 27. GHG emission and mitigation in Vietnam

26

LULUCF21

Agriculture

Managed soils

3

Rice paddy

12

Manure management

3Enteric fermentation

3

Commercial

Residential

Energy saving behavior

4

Fuel shift & Natural energy

11

Energy efficiency improvement

13

Energy saving behavior

2

Fuel shift & Natural energy

3

Energy efficiency improvement

5

Industry

Energy saving

11

Fuel shift

16

Energy efficiency improvement

23

Passenger
Transport

Biofuel

0.3

Energy efficient vehicle

13

Power
sector Freight Transport

Publilc transport

10

Biofuel1

Energy efficient vehicle

24

Modal shift

4

Energy efficiency and fuel shift

39
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Unit: MtCO2eq
Figure 28. GHG mitigation potential in Vietnam in 2030

27

LCS Policy Package for Vietnam
All of proposed low carbon countermeasures can be translated into policy actions
through incentives and regulations as ex-

plained in low carbon policy package asshown in Figure 29.

Residential & Commercial sectors

AFOLU sector

High-efficiency devices and equipment(air condition, cooking stove, lighting,refrigerator, water heating and otherelectric appliances)18.0 MtCO2eq

Establish policies to develop renewable energy from livestock manure
management (bioenergy from CH4)
3 MtCO2eq

Promoting renewable energy andreduce using of fossil fuel14.4 MtCO2eq

Applying midseason drainage; offseason rice straw and replace urea
with ammonium sulphate into rice
paddy management
12 MtCO2eq

Energy saving behavior
6.0 MtCO2eq

Transportation sector

Applying high efficiency fertilizer
application into soil management
3 MtCO2eq

Industry sector
High-efficiency devices and equipment(boiler, furnace, motor and so on)
23.5 MtCO2eq
Promoting renewable energy and reduce using of fossil fuel15.8 MtCO2eq
Energy saving by adopting energy
efficient devices
10.9 MtCO2eq

Energy efficient improvement

Public transport
Transform passenger transport fromvehicle to walking, bicycle, train or
bus.
Transform freight transport fromlarge vehicle to train, ship or boat or
ferry.
13.6 MtCO2eq
Eliminating & alternating old andunqualified vehicles, promoting highenergy efficiency vehicles
37.3 MtCO2eq

Applying high genetic merit and replacement of roughage with concentration technologies into the management of livestock enteric fermentation
3 MtCO2eq

Encouraging environmental & economical-fuel for vehicle such as biofuel
1.4 MtCO2eq

Protection and sustainable management of existing production forest
areas; conservation of existing protection forests and planting fast-growing
trees for lumber
21 MtCO2eq

Power generation sector
Higher generation efficiency improvement
Reduction of transmission loss
Fuel shifting
38.7 MtCO2eq

Lowering GHG intensity

Low Carbon Society in Vietnam
Figure 29. Low Carbon Policy Package for Vietnam
Table 5 . GHG emissions/mitigations in 2030BaU and 2030CM
Sector

GHG emissions
reduction(MtCO2eq)

2030BaU

2030CM

AFOLU sectors

79

37

42

Agriculture

85

64

21

LULUCF

-6

-27

21

522

342

180

Residential sector

110

68

42

Commercial sector

41

28

13

Industry

257

185

71

Transport

114

61

53

601

379

222

Energy sectors

Total

28

GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)

Actions towards LCS in 2030
The LCS policy package encompasses several solutions, is a menu of recommended Actions which are needed to be integrated in
the development planning for Vietnam.
These Actions would have to be consideredin the background of the developing countries’ imperative need of effective governance, financing and technology transfer.
Actions should be compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development, however not at the cost of the development
needs of all groups in the society.
The set of Actions would help in devising

dedicated policies in the present and helping
in the realization of a LCS vision for Vietnam
These Actions focus on two group of sectors such as energy and AFOLU sectors. Five
Actions (A1 to A4 and F) comprise all low
carbon countermeasures in AFOLU sector.
Six Actions (E1 to E6) are focused on energy
sector and include all low carbon countermeasure in this sector.
Detail explanations and the amount of GHG
emission reduction of each Action are shownin following sections.

Table 6 . Actions towards LCS in Vietnam in 2030

Actions towards LCS in Vietnam in 2030

AFOLU sectors

GHG
mitigations(MtCO2eq)

3

Action A2 Livestock Enteric Fermentation

3

Action A3 Rice Cultivation Management

12

Action A4 Soil Management

3

Action F

21

Energy sectors

F
50%

Mitigation pote ntial
42 MtCO 2

Green Building

14

Action E2Convenient Transport

15

Action E3

Energy Saving Behavior

17

Action E4

Energy Efficiency Improvement

79

Action E5

Fuel Shift in Industry

16

Action E6

Smart Power Plants

39
222

A3
29%

A4
7%

Figure 30. Mitigation potential of
AFOLU sector

180

Action E1

Total

A2
8%

42

Action A1 Livestock Manure Management

Forest and Land Use Management

A1
7%

E2
8%
E3
9%

E1
8%
E6
22%
Mitigatio n potential
180 MtCO 2

E5
9%

E4
44%

Figure 31. Mitigation potential in
Energy sector

29

Action A1: Livestock Manure Management
The action “Livestock Manure Management” is expected to reduce 2.8 MtCO2 eq
at AAC of 10 USD/tCO2eq, accounts for 7%of total GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors(see Figure 32). The low carbon countermeasures in this action are “daily spreadof manure” and “dome digester, cooking
fuel and light”.
In the former one, anaerobic digestion
would reduce GHG emissions if applied tobuffalo and dairy cattles manures of currently sorted as liquids/slurries and pig
manure kept in pits for longer than amonth. The daily spread of manure would
bring about GHG emissions reduction in
all of these cases, and a small reduction
for dairy and pig manures kept in solid
storage. In latter countermeasure, dome
digesters are designed for small-scale andunheated ones. Generated biogas is typically used by the household for cooking
and other household energy needs.
Mitigation in different AAC in Action A1
is shown in table 7.
Total mitigation is no change in deferent
AAC of 0, 10 and 100 USD/tCO2eq. However, it can get more mitigation in the case 100

A1
7%
8%

50%

29%

7%

Figure 32. Mitigation potential of Action A1

USD/tCO2 of AAC.
There is a completion between mitigation
countermeasures in term of cost, the cheaper countermeasures are expected to be employed more compare to other.

In the case at 10000)USD/tCO2eq of AAC,
total cost of “dome digester, cooking andlight” is higher than that of “daily spread ofmanure”. Therefore, “daily spread of manure” is chosen instead of “dome digester,
cooking fuel and light”.

Table 7 . Breakdown of emission mitigation in action A1 in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2eq]
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2eq]

30

0

10

100

100000Daily spread of manure

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.9

Dome digester, cooking fuel and light

2.8

2.8

2.8

0.1

Total

2.8

2.8

2.8

5.0

Action A2: Livestock Enteric Fermentation
The action “Livestock Enteric Fermentation” is contributed to reduce 3.3 MtCO2eq
at AAC of 10 USD/tCO2eq in 2030. This action comprises of 2 main countermeasures; namely, high genetic merit and replacement of roughage with concentrates,
account for 8% of total GHG emissions in
AFOLU sectors (Figure 33).
The “high genetic merit” countermeasure
is to improve the genetic merit of dairy
cows. As a result, average national yields
have increased. One of the major improvements is the ability of the cow to partition
nutrients into milk preferentially tomaintenance and/or growth. This has undoubtedly resulted in increased efficiency.
However, high genetic merit cows can haveincreased problems with fertility, lameness, mastitis and metabolic disorders,and all these issues will have to be addressed if genetic progress is to be successfully continued. This countermeasurecontributes to reduce 0.1 MtCO2eq at AAC

Mitigation in different AAC in Action A2
is shown in table 8.

7%

50%

A2
8%

29%

7%

Figure 33. Mitigation potential of Action A2of 10 USD/tCO2eq.

The “replacement of roughage with concentrates” is to increase conversion efficiency. This countermeasure contains highportions of structural carbohydrates withconcentrates to improve propionate generation in rumen, contributes to reduce 3.2
MtCO2at AAC of 10 USD/tCO2eq.

Figure 34. Feeding cow

Table 8 . Breakdown of emission mitigation in action A2 in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2eq]
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2eq]
0

10

100

100000High genetic merit

0.1

0.1

1.6

1.8

Replacement of roughage with concentrates

3.2

3.2

2.6

2.5

Total

3.3

3.3

4.2

4.3

31

Action A3: Rice Cultivation Management
The action “Rice Cultivation Management” has the largest mitigation potential
in agricultural sector, accounting for 29%
of total GHG emission reduction in AFOLU
sectors (Figure 35). This action will contribute to reduce about 11.9 MtCO2eq, on
which “midseason drainage” can reducethe biggest amount of GHG emissions inthis action about 6.7 MtCO2eq, “fall incorporation of rice straw” accounts for 3.4
MtCO2eq and “replace urea with ammonium sulphate” accounts for 1.8 MtCO2eq.
CH4 emitted from rice fields can be substantially reduced through modified water
management technologies, such as midseason drainage or alternate wetting and drying. In this technology, rice fields are threetimes within a growing season and surface
water layer is 5 to 10 cm for remaining,flooded period. This countermeasure ispossible to combine the aims of reducing
CH4 emission and saving irrigation water.
The “fall incorporation of rice straw” isaimed to shift straw amendment from inseason to off-season; as a result this process can reduce availability of dissolved

organic carbon and thus reducing CH4emissions.
For countermeasure “replace urea withammonium sulphate”, adding sulfate tosoil can increase mitigation potential,
which suppresses CH4 generation.
Mitigation in different AAC in Action A3
is shown in table 9.

7%
8%

50%

A3
29%
7%

Figure 35. Mitigation potential of Action A3

Table 9 . Breakdown of emission mitigation in action A3 in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2eq]
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2eq]

32

0

10

100

100000Replace urea with ammonium sulphate

0.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

Midseason drainage

4.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

Fall incorporation of rice straw

0.0

3.4

3.4

3.4

Total

4.7

11.9

11.9

11.9

Action A4. Soil Management
The action “Soil Management” is contributed to reduce 2.9 MtCO2eq, accounting for
7% of total GHG emission in AFOLU sectors(Figure 36). This action comprises of 2
main countermeasures; namely, high efficiency fertilizer application and slowrelease fertilizer.
High efficiency fertilizer application is
expected to reduce 2.9 MtCO2eq. In Vietnam, fertilizer is used excessively, leadto emissions of CO2 and N2O. Therefore,
reducing the redundant fertilizers or improving the efficiency of fertilizer use will
decrease GHG emissions.
Slow-release fertilizer is more expensive
countermeasure, therefore it is expected toapply in the case that higher cost to be
paid. Nitrogen is slowly released fromcoated or tablet fertilizer over a 30-day
period following application. This counter-measure will increase efficiency of fertilizer-use .
Mitigation in different AAC in Action A4
is shown in table 10.

7%
8%

50%

29%

A4
7%

Figure 36. Mitigation potential of Action A4

Table 10. Breakdown of emission mitigation in action A4 in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2eq]
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2eq]
0

10

100

100000High efficiency fertilizer application

0.0

2.9

2.7

2.4

Slow-release fertilizer

0.0

0.0

0.8

2.8

Total

0.0

2.9

3.5

5.1

Figure 37. Agricultural activity

Figure 38 Fertilizer input activity

33

Action F: Forest and Land Use Management
The action “Forest and Land Use Management” has the biggest contribution, accounting for 50% of GHG emissions reduction in AFOLU sector, 20.9 MtCO2eq. Mainlowcarboncountermeasuresare“protection and sustainable managementof existing production forest areas”,“conservation of existing protection forests” and “planting fast-growing trees forlumber”.
Currently, Vietnam has been taking steps
to reduce emissions from deforestationand forest degradation (REDD). Vietnam is
one of the countries who obtained approval for a small scale forestation projects under UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Planting fast-growing trees
for lumber can potentially be developed as
CDM project while “protection and sustainable management of existing production forest areas” and “conservation of ex-

7%
8%

F
50%

29%

7%

Figure 39. Mitigation potential of Action F

isting protection forests” are potential
REDD projects.
Mitigation in different AAC in Action F isshown in table 11.

Table 11 . Breakdown of emission mitigation in action F in different AAC

Allowable abatement cost [USD/tCO2eq]
Mitigation in 2030 [MtCO2eq]
0

10

100

100000Protection and sustainable management ofexisting production forest areas

0.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

Conservation of existing protection forests

0.0

16.5

16.5

16.5

Planting fast-growing trees for lumber

0.0

1.3

1.3

1.3

Total

0.0

20.9

20.9

20.9

Figure 40. Forest plantation

34

Figure 41. Let’s protect the forest

Action E1. Green Building
The “Green Building” action focuses on
countermeasures of fuel shifting and renewable energy utilization of two sectors(residential and commercial). This action is
expected to reduce 14.4 MtCO2eq, accounting for 8% of total CO2 emission reduction
in energy sector (Figure 43). Residential
sector can reduce 11.3 MtCO2eq and commercial sector can reduce 3.1 MtCO2eq .
GHG emission reduction from residential
sector accounts for 78% and commercial
sector 22%.
Fuel shifting and renewable energy utilization comprise low carbon countermeasures such as biomass cooking, solar heating, and solar water heater etc.
In order to achieve this action, the Government of Vietnam should deploy policies
concerning (i) subsidy to introduce renewable energy system (solar and wind energy,
photovoltaic power), (ii) low interest loan
in investment to building using renewableenergy, (iii) environmental performancestandard and evaluation of housing andbuildings.

Figure 42. “Green space” in Hanoi

E1
8%
22%

8%
9%

9%

44%

Figure 43. Mitigation potential of
Action E1

Table 12 . Breakdown of emission reduction in action E1

Residential
Heating
Hot water
Cooking
Commercial
Heating
Hot water
Cooking
Total

GHG emission
reduction [MtCO2eq]

Contribution in
the Action [%]

11.3
0.4
2.0
8.9
3.1
0.5
2.3
0.3
14.4

78%

Contribution in Contribution in
total reduction in total reductionenergy sector [%] in Vietnam [%]
6%
5%

22%

2%

1%

100%

8%

7%

35

Action E2. Convenient Transport
The action “Convenient Transport” primarily comprises of a shift from private
vehicles to public transportation (such as
from motorbike and car to bus and train)
by traffic management system and increased penetration of fuel switch (fromgasoline and diesel to electricity and biodiesel).
This action is contributed to reduce
15.0 MtCO2eq, on which GHG reductions
from modal shift (freight transport) is 4.0
MtCO2eq, public transport (passenger
transport) is 9.6 MtCO2eq, from promotionof fuel switch (bio-diesel) in both passenger and freight transport is 1.4 MtCO2eq.
Total GHG reductions from this action are
expected to contribute to 8% of total GHG
emission reductions in energy sector in
Vietnam.
Policies to encourage this action can be:environmental standards & requirementsof vehicles, upgrading transport infrastructure and encouraging environmental& economical-fuel vehicle such as natural
gas and hybrid cars, investment to publicvehicles, and bold policy to control andreduce the use of motorbikes.

Figure 44. A future public transportation
system

E2
8%

8%
22%

9%
9%

44%

Figure 45. Mitigation potential of
Action E2

Table 13 . Breakdown of emission reduction in action E2

Passenger transport
Bio diesel vehicle
Public transport
Freight transport
Bio diesel vehicle
Modal shift
Total

36

GHG emission
Contribution in total
Contribution in the
reduction
reduction in energy
Action [%][MtCO2 eq]
sector [%]
66%
6%
9.9
0.3
9.6
34%
3%
5.1
1.1
4.0
100%
8%
15.0

Contribution in total
reduction in Vietnam
[%]
4%

2%

7%

Action E3: Energy Saving Behavior
The action “Energy Saving Behavior” isprojected to reduce 16.9 MtCO2eq or 9% of
total GHG emission reduction in energy
sector. Energy saving activities focus onenergy services such as cooling, heating,
hot water, cooking in commercial and residential sectors, direct heating, steam andmotor in industrial sector.
Understanding the importance of energy
efficiency in socio-economic development
and environmental protection, Vietnam
has developed a national program to enhance effective use of energy with emphasize on both, supply and demand sides.
Based on the program, we assumed energy
service demand reduction ration in residential sector is 17% and those in bothcommercial and industrial sectors are 20%.
Energy savings in industrial sector is ex-pected to contribute to the highest amountof GHG reduction, accounts for 11.0
MtCO2eq. It is followed by residential andcommercial sectors with respectively
amount of GHG reductions are 4.3 and 1.7
MtCO2eq.

8%
22%

8%
E3
9%

9%

44%

Figure 46. Mitigation potential of
Action E3

Table 14. Breakdown of emission reduction in action E3

Residential
CoolingHeating
Hot water
CookingLighting
Refrigerator
Other equipment
Commercial
CoolingHeating
Hot water
CookingLighting
Refrigerator
Other equipment
Industry
Furnace
Boiler
Motor
Other
Total

GHG emission
reduction[MtCO2eq]
4.3
0.1
0.1
0.5
3.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.7
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
10.9
3.2
3.9
2.3
1.6
16.9

Contribution in total
Contribution in
reduction in energy
the Action [%]sector [%]
26%
2%

10%

36%

Contribution in total
reduction in Vietnam
[%]
2%

1%

1%

6%

5%

9%

8%

37

Action E4: Energy Efficiency Improvement
The “Energy Efficiency Improvement” action is able to reduce GHG emissions in
2030 by 78.8 MtCO2eq or 44% of total GHG
emission reductions in energy sector. The
highest amount of GHG emission reduction accounts for transport sector by 37.3
MtCO2eq. It is followed by industry, residential and commercial sectors with respectively amount of GHG reductions are
23.5, 12.8 and 5.2 MtCO2eq.
This action is used to turn the existing or
inefficient motors or vehicles into “bestavailable technology” models in all sectors.

8%
22%

8%
9%

9%

E4
44%

Figure 47. Mitigation potential of
Action E4

Table 15 . Breakdown of emission reduction in action E4

Residential
CoolingHeating
Hot water
CookingLighting
Refrigerator
Other equipment
Commercial
CoolingHeating
Hot water
CookingLighting
Refrigerator
Other equipment
Industry
Furnace
BoilerMotor
Other
Passenger transport
Motorbike
Car
Bus
Train
Ship
Aviation
Freight transport
Truck
Train
Ship
Aviation
Total

38

GHG emission Contribution in the Contribution in total
reduction in energy
reduction [MtCO2 eq]
Action [%]sector [%]
16%
7%
12.8
1.5
0.1
0.9
5.9
2.3
0.9
1.2
7%
3%
5.2
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.3
1.1
0.6
0.6
30%
13%
23.5
14.9
4.8
1.0
2.9
17%
7%
13.4
4.0
3.4
3.8
0.0
0.0
2.2
30%
13%
23.9
23.7
0.0
0.2
0.0
100%
44%
78.8

Contribution in total
reduction in Vietnam
[%]
6%

2%

11%

6%

11%

36%

Action E5: Fuel Shift in Industry
The action “Fuel Shift in Industry” is projected to reduce GHG emission in 2030 by
15.7 MtCO2eq or 9% of total GHG emissionin energy sector.
Fuel uses in industry sector will be able
to shift from high carbon intensity to lower carbon intensive. For instance, fuelswitch from coal and oil to natural gas.
To promote mitigation measures of industry sector, incentive to investment infuel switch is essentially important. Policies for this sector should be focus on tax,
subsidy and low interest loans.

8%
22%

8%
9%

E5
9%

44%

Figure 48. Mitigation potential of
Action E5

Action E6: Smart Power Plants
The action “Smart Power Plants” is projected to reduce GHG emission in 2030 by
26.6 MtCO2eq or 16% of total GHG emission reduction in energy sector. This action comprises of 4 main countermeasures; utilizing economically efficient domestic energy resources, promoting theuse of renewable energies, reducing transmission and distribution loss, and developing nuclear power plant.
The share of high carbon intensity fueldecreased and replaced by lower carbon
intensity fuel and renewable energies suchas solar & wind and biomass.
The transmission and distribution loss in2005 was 11.3% and this number is expected to reduce to 9% in 2030BaU scenario and 7% in 2030CM scenario.
Share of nuclear is projected to contribute 10% to generate power in 2030CM scenario.

8%

E6
22%

8%
9%
9%

44%

Figure 49. Mitigation potential of
Action E6

39

Methodology
A procedure to create LCS scenarios
In order to create a local low-carbon society
scenario, We developed a method based on
the idea of "back casting", which sets a desirable goal first, and then seek the way to achieve
it. Figure 50 shows overview of the method.

(1) Setting framework
Framework of a LCS scenario includes; target
area, base year, target year, environmental target, number of scenarios. Among them, thebase year is compared with target year. The
target year should be far enough to realize
required change, and near enough to image
the vision for the people in the region. In thisstudy, we set the target year of Vietnam, 2030.
This is also a suitable time span for a LCS
study for the reasons above. As an environmental target, we targeted CO2 from energy
use because it will be a main source of GHG
emissions from Vietnam in 2030.
(2) Assumptions of socio-economic situations
Before conducting quantitative estimation,
qualitative future image should be written. It
is an image of lifestyle, economy and industry,land use and so on.
(3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions
To estimate Snapshot based on future imageof (2), values of exogenous variables and parameters are set. Using those input, ExSS calculates socio-economic indices of the target
year such as population, GDP, output by industry, transport demand, and so on.
(4) Collection of low-carbon measures
To collect counter measures which arethought to be available in the target year. For
example, high energy-efficiency devices,transport structure change such as public
transport, use of renewable energy, energy
saving behavior and carbon sink. Technicaldata is required to estimate their effect to reduce GHG emissions. In this research we employed the measure showed in preceding40(1) Setting Framework(2) Description of socioeconomic assumptions(4) Collection of low carbon
measures(3) Quantification of socioeconomic assumptions(5) Setting introduction of
measures in target year(6) Estimation of GHG
emissions in the target year

(7) Confirming measures set andsuggestion of policy recommendations

Figure 50. Procedure to create LCS scenarios
study and national on-going policies.

(5) Setting introduction of countermeasures
Technological parameters related to energy
demand and CO2 emissions, in short energy
efficiency, are defined. Since there can be various portfolios of the measures, one mustchoose appropriate criteria. For example, cost
minimization, acceptance to the stakeholders,or probability of technological development.
(6) Estimation of GHG emission in the target year
Based on socio-economic indices and assumption of measures' introduction, GHG
emissions are calculated.
(7) Proposal of policies
Propose policy set to introduce the measures
defined. Available policies depend on the situation of the country. ExSS can calculate emission reduction of each counter measure.
Therefore, it can show reduction potential ofmeasures which especially needs local policy.
It can also identify measures which have highreduction potential and therefore important.

Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)
Figure 51 shows the structure of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS); seven blocks with
input parameters, exogenous variables andvariables between modules. ExSS is a systemof simultaneous equations. Given a set of exogenous variables and parameters, solution is
uniquely defined. In this simulation model,
only CO2 emission from energy consumption
is calculated, even though, ESS can be used toestimate other GHG and environmental loads
such as air quality. In many LCS scenarios, exogenously fixed population data are used.
However, people migrate more easily, when
the target region is relatively a smaller areasuch as a state, district, city or town. Population is decided by demand from outside of theregion, labor participation ratio, demographic
composition and relationship of commuting
with outside of the region. To determine out-

•Export•Government expenditure•Import ratio •Labor productivity

Averageworking time

Wage

Privateconsumption

Output•Commuting OD
Number ofworkers

Labor ModuleLabordemandMacro-economy andIndustry Module

put of industries, input-output approach isapplied.
For future estimation, assumption of export
value is especially important if the target region is thought to (or, desired to) develop led
by particular industry, such as automotive
manufacturing or sight seeing.
Passenger transport demand is estimatedfrom the population and freight transport demand whereby it is a function of output by
manufacturing industries. Floor area of commerce is determined from output of tertiaryindustries. Other than driving force, activity
level of each sector, energy demand by fuels
determined with three parameters. One is energy service demand per driving force, energy
efficiency and fuel share. Diffusion of countermeasures changes the value of these parameters, and so GHG emissions.

IncomeTime-use andConsumption Module•Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family
occupants

Population and Household
Number Module
Population
Number ofhousehold•Breakdown ofconsumption•Population distribution•Floor area per
outputFloor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Transport
ModuleCommercial
Building Module

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG
Emissions Module•Energy service demand generation unit
•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor•Trip per parson•Transport distance•Modal share

Module

GHG emissions

Main endogenous
variables

Flow of endogenous variables

Exogenous variables
and parameters
Input

Figure 51. Overview of calculation system of Extended Snapshot Tool

41

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Bottom up (AFOLUB) model
AFOLU Bottom-up model (AFOLUB) is abottom-up type model to estimate GHG
emissions and mitigation potential in
AFOLU sectors at country or regional level, dealing with quantified mitigation
countermeasures. The emissions andmitigation potential are calculated using
a function of Allowable Abatement Costs(AAC), which are representative parameters representing willingness of GHG reduction under several constraints for
mitigation costs and mitigation potential.
Moreover, the calculation is also basedon future assumptions of crops harvested areas, numbers of livestock animal
and area of land use change. The model
illustrates selection of production countermeasures of the agricultural commodities and mitigation countermeasures byproducers (i.e. farmers) based on economic rationality. Mitigation potential isestimated as a result of cost minimization choice of GHG mitigation countermeasures. In the AFOLUB, it is considered that the selection depends not only
on cost and mitigation potential but also
dependent relation between countermeasures.
The AFOLUB consists of two modules:
AGriculture Bottom-up module (AG/
Bottom-up) and LULUCF Bottom-up module (LULUCF/Bottom-up).
The AG/Bottom-up calculates GHG
emissions and mitigation potential in
agricultural production; and energy consumption of agricultural machines; andcombination of production and mitigation countermeasures under several
AACs.
The LULUCF/Bottom-up calculates GHG
emissions from carbon stock change inbiomass and soils on the land and thosefrom fire, natural disturbance and peat
lands and mitigations by specific countermeasures. The module does not take42

into account emission from wood harvesting. It is assumed that wood harvesting is not too a large factor to make great
impacts on change in land use andchange in emission and sink coefficients.
The module calculates GHG emission andsink caused by historical land usechange. The implementation degree ofthe countermeasures is calculated basedon schemes assumed for mitigation
countermeasure selection. The schemes
can be set as conditions of allowable
minimum mitigation potential or total
maximum cost in a certain countermeasure application period.
As shown in Figure 52, the data set input in AFOLUB includes: i) list of countermeasures; ii) characteristics of thecountermeasure such as cost, reduction
effect, life time, diffusion ratio, energy
consumption and recovery; iii) scenariosof crop production, number of livestock
animals and area of land use and landuse change; iv) scenarios of fertilizer input, price of commodity and energy, andproduction technologies; and vi) futureassumption on policy such as AAC for
GHG mitigation, energy tax rate, subsidy
and so on.
Table 16 shows emission sources treated in the AFOLUB model. Emission/sink
sources taken into account in the study
are enteric fermentation (3A1) and manure management (3A2) of livestock, LULUCF (3B), managed soils (3C4 to 3C6)
and rice cultivation (3C7). Target GHG in
the study are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). LULUCF sector is considered as a source ofboth emission and sink of carbon.

List of Countermeasure
Characteristics of countermeasure

Scenario of;- Crop production- Yield of crops and carcass
weight of animals- Number of livestock
animals- Land use, land use change-

Cost
Reduction effectLife time
Diffusion ratio
Energy consumption and recovery

Scenario of;- Fertilizer input- Price of commodity and energy- Production technologies- Feeding system of livestock- Manure management system- Share ratio of irrigation area

Policy;- GHG emission tax rate
- Energy tax rate
- Subsidy

Allowable abatement
cost for GHG
emission mitigation

AFOLUB model
Emission/mitigation
Types of countermeasures

Exogenous
variables

Endogenous
variables

Model

Figure 52. Input and output of AFOLU emission model

Table 16. Emission sources and target GHG in AFOLU model
1]

Emission sources

Classification

Gases

Enteric fermentation

Dairy cattle, Other cattle, Buffalo, Sheep, Goats, Camels, Horses, Mules,
Asses, Swine
Dairy cattle, Other cattle, Buffalo, Sheep, Goats, Camels, Horses, Mules,
Asses, Swine, Chickens, Ducks, Turkeys

CH4

IPCC category
3A1

CH4, N2O

3A2

Manuremanagement
2]
Aggregate Sources
Emissions from Biomass Burning
2]
and Non-CO2
LimingEmissions Sources on
2]
Urea Application
Land
Direct N2O emission from Managed soils
Indirect N2O emission from Managed soils
Indirect N2O Emissions from Manure Management
Rice cultivations
Note: 1] Emission categories of IPCC(2006), 2] Gray part is not estimated in this study.

CO2, CH4, N2O 3C1
CO2

3C2

CO2

3C3
3C4
3C5
3C6
3C7

N 2O
N 2O
N 2O
CH4

43

Data Tables
Table A1. Base year information
Name

Unit

Population by age and sex
Male
0-14
15-64
65+
Female
0-14
15-64
65+

11,822,616
27,406,839
3,000,388

Number of households
Output by industry

20,020,187 household
trillion VND

Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry
Mining and quarrying
Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures
Other consumer goods
Industrial materials
Capital goods
Construction
Electric, gas, water, transport,
telecommunication, finacial, insurance, private
and government services
Passenger transport generation per person per day
Passenger transport generation in 2005
Modal share
Train
Bus
Car
Ship
Motorbike
Walk & bicycle
Domestic aviation
Average trip distance
Train
Bus
Ship
Motorbike
Walk
Bike
Car
Domestic aviation
Passenger transport demand
Train
Bus
Ship
Motorbike
Walk & bicycle
Car
Domestic aviation
Frieght transport generation per output
Modal share
RailwaysRoad
Inland waterway
Domestic aviation
Average trip distance
RailwaysRoad
Inland waterway
Domestic aviation
Frieght transport volume
RailwaysRoad
Inland waterway
Domestic aviation

44

Value in 2005

person12,437,523
26,337,179
2,101,755

SourcePopulation Division - United Nations Population low
variant, 2030 for Vietnam
http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2008)

Vietnam Population and Housing Census (2009)
Input-output table 2005 (Trinh Bui, 2009)

261
143
259
285
182
127
179

497
2 trip/capita/day Assumption
60,668 mil.trips/year%
Walter and Michael, 1995
0.04
0.33
Schipper et. al, 2008
0.2
JICA/MoT, 2009
0.47
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2009)
2.95
96
0.01
km/trip
356
Schipper et. al, 2008
181
JICA/MoT, 200922
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2009)
6
1
3
92
811
mil p-km
8418
36681
6220
10451
14560211230
5378
0.29 t-output/day Calculated by total freight transport volume and output
of industry%
Calculated by freight transport volume by type oftransport
2.1
71.3
26.6
0
km/trip
Estimated by freight transport volume, modal share,336
freight transport generation per output per day, and60
population
162
2156
mil-t/km
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2008)
2949
17668
17999
239

45

Description

06 Capital goods

693
1026

Gross value added

Total gross output

27

466

193

108

43
333

0

23

0

11

Total intermediate input

07 Construction
Private & government services and08
others

3

0
43

10

1
15

02

115

34

0

119

01

03 Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures

05 Industrial materials

259

200
59

12

112
3
44
10
15
3
0

03

285

235
50

20

11
1
0
160
38
4
0

04

182

137
45

16

1
10
0
7
97
5
0

05

127

99
29

7

0
0
0
5
28
58
0

06

179

126
53

9

0
5
0
8
78
26
0

07

497

193
304

71

4
3
9
16
53
37
0

08

75

278

935

57

0

16

69

49

204

14

526

03

69

335

1573

134

0

24

256

1074

2

9

73

04

6

29

221

667

78

0

25

475

32

2

49

05

0
0

1

16

140

482

33

0

284

137

25

06

1

33

257

609

46

0

124

375

37

1

25

07

174

1573

997

368

0

194

275

82

46

13

19

08

745

9750

3963

5787

868

0

701

1745

1313

289

126

783

132

433

98

87

-9

31

1

10

741

89

433

98

87

-9

31

1

10

2713

389

0

230

204

771

346

615

-3092

-378

0

-664

-1377

-328

-105

-89

-150

1934

-644

562

307

594

1115
818

156

497

-54

81

37

263

170

1934

261
143
259
285
182
127
179

-17
-11
-30
-115
-282
-135
0

32
127
72
160
42
48
0

4
0
13
-4
36
41
179

83
1
143
35
37
33
0

159
26
62
209
348
141
0

Table A3. Input-output table of Vietnam in 2030 (Unit: Trillion VND)

04 Other consumer goods

02 Mining and quarrying

01 Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry

No.

42
101

85
176
143

24

11

261

0
3
0
1
9
5
0

30
0
9
3
29
3
0

02

Total
intermediate
consumption

Total gross output

01 Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry
02 Mining and quarrying
03 Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures
04 Other consumer goods
05 Industrial materials
06 Capital goods
07 Construction
Private & government services and08
othersTotal intermediate input
Gross value added

01

Consumption

Consumption

Description

Fixed capitalformation

Fixed capitalformationNo.

Total intermediate
consumption

Table A2. Input-output table of Vietnam in 2005 (Unit: Trillion VND)

ExportExportImportImportTotal gross output

3963

1702

866

-79

-857

595

924

532

281

Total gross
outputTable A4. CO2 reduction by sectors/countermeasures in energy sector
Sector Low-carbon countermeasure

Emission reduction(MtC O2)

Identidied implementtation intensity (%)

Residential sector

Ene rgy e ffic ie nc y home applianc e sHigh ene rgy e ffic ie nc y air c ondition
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y c ooking stoveCoal-c ooking stove
LPG c ooking stove
Biomass c ooking stove
Ele c tric ity c ooking stove
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y lighting (Compac t fluore sc e nt
lamps substitute inc ande sc e nt light)
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y refrigerator
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y wate r he ating
Coal - wate r he ating
Oil - water he ating
Biomass - wate r he ating
Solar water he ating
Ene rgy e ffic ienc y improve me nt of e le c tric applianc e s
Ene rgy saving behavior
Cooling (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 17%)
He ating (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 17%)
Hot wate r (Ene rgy servic e de mand re duc tion ratio 17%)
Cooking (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 17%)
Othe r home ele c tric applianc es
Other fue l shifting

Freight transport setor

Passenger transport sector

Industrial sector

Commercial sector

Total
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y air c ondition

Diffusion ratio

70

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

25
40
55
40
60

Diffusion ratio

60

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

25
67
55
10
60

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

100
100
100
100
100

Power generation sector

46

2.3
0.9
0.9

1.2
4.3

11.3

Diffusion ratio

70High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y lightingHigh ene rgy e ffic ie nc y refrigerator
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y wate r he ating
Coal - wate r he ating
Oil - water he ating
Solar water he ating
Ene rgy e ffic ienc y improve me nt of e le c tric applianc e sHigh ene rgy e ffic ie nc y c ooking stoveCoal-c ooking stove
LPG c ooking stove
Ele c tric ity c ooking stove
Ene rgy saving behavior

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

40
80

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50
57
15
60

Cooling (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 20%)
He ating (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 20%)
Hot wate r (Ene rgy servic e de mand re duc tion ratio 20%)
Cooking (Ene rgy se rvic e demand reduc tion ratio 20%)
Othe r e lec tric applianc e s
Other fue l shifting
Total
Ene rgy e ffic ie nc y equipments

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

100
100
100
100
100

28.5
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.0

0.6
0.8

50
57
50
1.8

3.2
10.0
23.5

High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y boile r
Diffusion ratio
ratioHigh ene rgy e ffic ie nc y furnac e
Diffusion
High ene rgy e ffic ie nc y motor
Diffusion ratio
Ene rgy saving (Ene rgy servic e de mand re duc tion ratio 20%)

40-50
35-65
60
10.9

Other fue l shifting
Total
Ene rgy e ffc ienc y in transport mode

Diffusion ratio

30-50

15.7
50.0
13.4

Bio fuel (from oil to bio fuel)Diffusion ratio

3

0.3

Modal shift

9.6

From ve hic le to train

Share of train = 0.1%
(base ye ar = 0.04%)

From ve hic le to bus

Share of bus = 2.3%
(base ye ar = 0.33%)

From ve hic le and ship to walk and bike

Share of walk & bike = 93%(base ye ar = 90%)

Total
Ene rgy e ffc ienc y in transport mode

Diffusion ratio

30-50

23.4
23.9

Bio fuel (from oil to bio fuel)Diffusion ratio

5

1.1

Modal shift
From large ve hic le to train
From large ve hic le to ship/boat/ferry

4.0
Share of train = 5%(base ye ar = 2%)
Share of ship = 30%(base ye ar = 27%)

Total
Improve me nt of CO 2 inte nsity of powe r gene ration

Total

1.6
5.9

Gene ration e ffic ie nc y improveme nt
Coal

29.0
38.7
Gene ration e ffic ie nc y = 45% (base ye ar = 36%)

Oil

Gene ration e ffic ie nc y = 38% (base ye ar = 31%)

Gas

Gene ration e ffic ie nc y = 42% (base ye ar = 37%)

Transmission lost reduc tion

Transmission lost = 7% (base ye ar = 11%)

Fue l shifting
From fossil fue l to nuc le ar
From fossil fue l to re ne wable e ne rgy
179.5

Table A5. Final energy demand by sector by fuel in Vietnam
Unit: ktoe
Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar&wind

Biomass

Electricity

Total

2005
Residential

861

726

-

-

23,1291,674

26,390Commercial

333

958

-

-

-

338

1,629

Industry

4,799

2,971

100

-

-

1,919

9,789

Passenger Transport

-

3,074

-

-

-

33

3,108

Freight Transport

-

3,535

-

-

-

2

3,537

Total

5,993

11,265100-

23,1293,966

44,453

Share

13%

25%

0%

0%

52%

9%

100%

Residential

2,618

9,169

-

-

21,764

12,655

46,207

Commercial

2,508

3,674

-

-

-

3,554

9,736

Industry

22,44314,143

6,111

-

-

19,65862,355-

14,190

-

-

-

239

14,4292030BaU

Passenger Transport
Freight Transport-

20,954

-

-

-

101

21,055

Total

27,56962,131

6,111-

21,76436,207

153,782

Share

18%

40%

4%

0%

14%

24%

100%

Residential

1,700

6,693

-

2,998

18,492

9,224

39,107

Commercial

1,890

3,239

-

627

-

2,343

8,099

Industry

15,341

12,991

6,562

-

2,283

15,81452,991

Passenger Transport

-

7,027

-

-

75

165

7,267

Freight Transport-

11,668

-

-

317

148

12,132

Total

18,93041,618

6,562

3,625

21,166

27,694

119,596

Share

16%

35%

5%

3%

18%

23%

100%

2030CM

Table A6. Primary energy demand by fuel in Vietnam
Unit: ktoe
Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro
power

2005

8,125

11,943

4,912

1,845

0

0

23,12949,9542030BaU

63,18573,43327,070

11,230

1,604

1,203

23,796

201,5222030CM

43,901

46,59522,809

8,442

3,247

5,549

17,440147,984

2030BaU/2005

7.8

6.1

5.5

6.1

-

-

1.0

4.0

2030CM/2005

5.4

3.9

4.6

4.6

-

-

0.8

3.0

2030CM/2030BaU

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.8

2.0

4.6

0.7

0.7

2005

16%

24%

10%

4%

0%

0%

46%

100%

2030BaU

31%

36%

13%

6%

1%

1%

12%

100%

2030CM

30%

31%

15%

6%

2%

4%

12%

100%

Nuclear

Solar wind

Biomass

Total

Energy demand

Percentage distribution

47

Appendixes
Appendix 1. Vietnam’s environmental policy on climate change

No National program, policiy and law(1) Ensure food security, energy security, water security, and so on in the context ofclimate change;(2) Consider low-carbon economy and green growth as principles in achieving
sustainable development; GHG emission reduction and removal to become amandatory index in social and economic development.
(3) Take advantage of climate change opportunities for social and economic
development; promote climate-friendly behaviours.
(4) Join forces with international communities in addressing climate change; increaseinternational cooperation to address climate change effectively.

National Target Program to Respond to
Climate Change (NTP-RCC); Decision
number 158/2008/QD-TTg dated on
December 2008

This program comprehensively addresses climate change effects, impacts andadaptation responding to sea level rise and GHG emission mitigation(1) To assess climate change impacts on sectors and regions in specific periods;(2) To develop feasible actions plans to effectively respond to climate change in the
short-term and long-term to ensure sustainable development of Vietnam;(3) To take opportunities to develop towards a low-carbon economy;(4) To join the international community’s effort in mitigating climate change andprotecting the climatic system
To strengthening the legal basis for environmental protection, supporting research anddevelopment into, and transfer of, environmentally friendly technologies, and stipulating
Vietnam’s active participation in international activities related to the 1992 UNFCCC.
This Law provides for activities of environmental protection; policies, measures andresources for environmental protection; rights and obligations of organizations,households and individuals in environmental protection
Kyoto Protocol regulates the creation and trading of emission reduction credits.
Currently, there have been 78 CDM projects have been approved by CDM Executive
Board in Vietnam up to now. (December 2011)

1

2

Main ojectives

National Climate Change Strategy(NCCS, 2011); Decision number
2139/QD-TTg dated 05 December 2011

Vietnam Agenda 21 policies; Decision
3 number 153/2004/QD-TTg dated August
17th 2004
Law on Environmental Protection;
4 Decision number 52/2005/QH11 dated
November 29th 2005
5 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)- Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) was assigned as a National Focal Agency for participating and implementing
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol.
- Department of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change (DMHCC), which belongs to MoNRE, is the Designed National Authority
for CDM in Vietnam.

48

Appendix 2. Concrete targets of each Energy National Policies and Strategies in Vietnam
No Energy Policy and Strategies

Concrete targets
Energy elasticity: from 1.46 at present to 1.0 (2015) and 0.8
Energy conservation(after 2020)and energy efficiency
Energy consumption: saving 3% to 5% during 2006-2010
and 5% to 8% during 2011-2015
National Energy Development Strategy in the47.5 to 49.5 Mtoe (2010)
period up to 2020, perspective up to 2050.
Primary energy supply
100 to 110 Mtoe (2020)
1 (NEDS, 2007); Decision number
110 to 120 Mtoe (2025)
1855/2007/QD-TTg dated December 27th
Share of household using renewable energy in cooking 50%
2007
Renewable energy(2010), 80% (2020)
Connect regional power grid (2010-2015)
Energy trade
Connect gas pipeline network (2015-2020)
Capacity of refinery: 25-30 million tonnes crude oil (2020)
Electricity demand growth rate: 14% per annum (20112015); 11% (2016-2020).
Electrical production 695-834 billion kWh (2030)
Electrical generation from small hydro and renewable
National Power Development Plan for period
energy will be 3,100MW (2020) and 4800MW (2030)
2011-2020 with perspective up to 2030.
2
Power supply plan
Electrical generational from wind power 1000MW (2020)(PDP VII); Decision number 1208/QD-TTg
and 6200MW (2030); from biomass 500MW (2020) anddated July 21st 2011
2000MW (2030)
Tranmission lost complies to N1- criterion
Enrgy elasticity ratio from 2.0 (current) to 1.5 (2015) and
1.0 (2020)
Coal explration
Coal reserves in 300m-1000m in depth
Master Plan for Coal Development up to
3 2015, and orientation up to 2025. (MPCD); Coal production and
61-65 million tonnes (2020-2025)
Coal demand growth rate 11.2% per annum (2005-2025)
Decision number 89/2008/QD-TTg dated July processing
Reserve 30-50 million cubic meter a year
Oil & gas exploration
Reserve in 400m water depth
25-30 million tonnes (2006-2010)60-65 million tonnes (2011-2015)
Master Plan on Vietnam Oil and Gas Sector
30-35 million tonnes (after 2016)
Development up to 2015, a vision towards
Domestic refineries will satisfy petroleum product demands
42025.(MPOG); Decision number 233/QDOil & gas supply
by 2014
TTg dated February 18th 2009.
Oil demand will grow by 8.3% per annum (2005-2025);
reaching 19.5 million tonnes in 2025
Gas demand will grow by 8.1% per annum (2005-2025);
reaching 18.9 billion cubic meters in 2025
Renewable energy
Small hydro (2500 MW); solar (3.25MW); wind (500 MW);
Master Plan for Renewable Energy
sourcesbiomass(400MW);(240toMW)
In primaryenergy:geothermail
2% at present
3.4% (2020) and 7%
Development for the period up to 2015, with
5
Renewable energy(2050)
outlook to 2025. (MPRE); Instiute of Energy
share in primary energy In power generation: 0.6% at present to 3.5% (2010), 4.5%
Vietnam (2008)
and power generation (2020) and 6% (2030)
Bio-energy development for the period up to
Using bio-energy, meeting 0.4% (2010), 1% (2015) and 5% (2025) of oil and gasoline
2015, outlook to 2025.(BIED); Decision
6
number 177/2007/QD-TTg dated November demand in country
20th 2007.
First nuclear power plant wii be built in 2015 and operate in 2020
Master Plan on Nuclear Power Development
In 2025: total capacity of nuclear power plant will be 8000 MW (7% of total power
7 up to 2030. (MPNP); Decision number
generation)
906/QD-TTg dated June 17th 2010
In 2030: total capacity of nuclear power plant will be 15000 MW (10% of total power
Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation
8
No. 50/2010/QH12

The Law includes policies and measures to promote energy efficiency andconservation (EE&C); prescribing EE&C; and the rights, obligations andresponsibilities of organizations, households and individuals in EE&C. Subjects ofapplication are focus on organizations, households and individuals using energy in49

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51

A LOW CARBON SOCIETY DEVELOPMENTTOWARDS 2030 IN VIETNAM
Kyoto University (KU)NGUYEN Thai Hoa*
Kei GOMI
Yuzuru MATSUOKA
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Tomoko HASEGAWA
Junichi FUJINO
Mikiko KAINUMA
Institute of Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE)NGUYEN Thi Thuy DuongNGUYEN Tung Lam
NGUYEN LanhNGUYEN Van Tai
Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN)
HUYNH Thi Lan Huong
TRAN Thuc
Water Resource University (WRU)NGUYEN Quang Kim
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Hiroshi TSUJIHARA(*) Corresponding author: Ms. Nguyen Thai Hoa
Email address: envi_koneko (*add @yahoo.com)