Low Carbon Society Vision 2035

AHMEDABAD
AMC(New boundary)
AMC(Old boundary)

Ahmedabad Urban Development
Authority (AUDA)

October, 2009
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Kyoto University
Mizuho Information & Research InstituteNational Institute for Environmental Studies

2

Preface
This project is the outcome of support from government agencies and collaboration
among various academic and research institutions - namely Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India, Kyoto University, National Institute for Environmental Studies( N IES ) and Mizuho Information & Research Institute from Japan.
We thank Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation ( AMC ) , and other planning & development agencies - the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority ( AUDA ) , and City Managers Association for their cooperation in providing data, information and perspectives
which were essential for meaningful modeling of Ahmedabad Low Carbon Society( L CS ) scenario.
This LCS scenario document is intended to communicate to city level policy makers - howto effectively integrate climate change actions in the development plans of the city. The
actions outlined in the document, we believe, would guide effective transition towards a
Low Carbon Ahmedabad. The proposed LCS is in line with national position articulated inIndia ’ s National Climate Change Action Plan and official Government position in various
high level declarations such as the “ Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate ” .
We hope that our research approach and findings shall contribute to assisting in sustainable transition of Ahmedabad - India ’ s seventh largest and a highly dynamic city - to a
Low Carbon Society, in one of the World ’ s fastest growing economy.
- P. R. Shukla
India

State of Gujarat

3

City of Ahmedabad

4

Table of Contents
Executive summary

6

Background8

Target setting and Timeline

9

About Ahmedabad

10

Socio-economic scenario in 2035

12Energy & Emission scenario in 2035

14

Mitigation potential in 2035

16

Eight Actions towards LCS

17

Description of Actions

18

Sectoral Mitigation Options

22

Methodology

28

Data

30

5

Executive summary
This report articulates a low carbon vision forthe city of Ahmedabad. The methodology involves deducing current socio economic, energy and emission parameters for the city using the base year ( 2005 ) data . These parameters are used in conjunction with the future energy service demands, energy technology assumptions, and socio economic assumptions for Ahmedabad ( population, etc )from the City Development Plan ( CDP ) ,toobtain the target year ( 2035 ) energy, emission and economic details. The ExSS tool estimates energy consumption and GHG emissions increase under 2035 Business as Usual( B AU ) scenario. The current per capita
emission for Ahmedabad is 2.09 t-CO2( 2 005 ) . In 2035, this figure will increase to
5.47 t-CO2 under the BAU scenario .

reduced to 20.4 million ton - CO2 ( reduction
by 66.67% over 2035 BAU level ) .
In order to transit to a low carbon society in Ahmedabad, several countermeasures are required. It is interestingly observed from themodel output that for a LCS transition in Ahmedabad, decarbonization has a higher mitigation potential as compared to energy efficiency
improvements in the LCS scenario for Ahmedabad. The major emission reduction potential isfrom improvements in energy intensity of economic activities, cleaner and greener power( c oal with CCS, renewable like hydro, solar
and biomass ) , reduction in energy service demand for industrial and commercial sector, fuelswitch in power, transport and industrial sector;
and measures promoting end-use device efficiency in the transport sector, industrial andresidential sector.

The current GHG emissions of Ahmedabad areapproximately 10.2 million ton CO2, which increases to 61.1 million ton -CO2, or around 6
times higher than the 2005 level under the BAU( 2 035 ) scenario. However, by adopting various countermeasures , the GHG emissions get

These countermeasures can be presented as apolicy package of “ Eight Actions ” for Ahmedabad

Figure 1: GHG emissions and mitigations by means
70.0

GHG Emissions/reductions (mt- C02)

60.0

3.7

4.3
2.4

50.0

6.3

Efficiency Improvement (Transport)
Efficiency Improvement (Industry)
Efficiency Improvement ( Building)

Fuel Switch

40.0

Reduction in Energy Service demand

15.4

Emissions

61.1

30.0

8.6
20.0

20.4

10.0
10.2

0.0
2005

Coal + CCS

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

6

Policy Package for Ahmedabad
For realizing the vision of a Low Carbon Society for Ahmedabad, a comprehensive list of policy
options are required for implementation of the mitigation measures. The policy package suggested is a menu of recommended actions, that is needed to be integrated in the city development plan of Ahmedabad. Together, these set of actions would help in devising dedicated policies in the present and thus, helping in the realization of a low-carbon society vision for Ahmedabad.

LCS Actions
Public Transport
Sustainable
Transport

Fuel Switch
Traffic Management

EnergyEfficiency

End Use Efficiency

Coal + CCS
Low Carbon
Electricity

Green Power
Material
Efficiency

3R

Water Recovery
Environmental
Infrastructure
Waste Management

Land Use
PlanningGreen Cover

Green Buildings

Governance

Financing7

BackgroundIn the developed world context, the concept ofa low-carbon society has the following attributes:( 1 ) Actions should be compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development,
however not at the cost of the development needs of all groups in the society.
( 2 ) Make an equitable contribution towards
global efforts in stabilizing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and other
GHG gases, through deep emission
cuts.
( 3 ) Use low-carbon energy sources andtechnologies and demonstrate a highlevel of energy efficiency at all levels ofenergy usage.
( 4 ) Adopt certain behavioral and consumption styles that are consistent with lowlevels of greenhouse gas emissions.

“ Q uality of Life ” ( Q OL ) of the local residents. ‘ Quality of Life’ should be embodied
within the broader deliverables of providing asafe, secure and a comfortable city. Such asociety would not emerge in the immediate future but decisions regarding key choices haveto be taken now.
Such choices would be either resource/sector
based or hard/soft type. While the former controls key energy service demands in certain
sectors like residential, building, commercial,
etc but the latter, provides an alternative option
through either physical type decisions or management decisions. It is important to recognizethat the concept of LCS from a city-level perspective should be planned within the jurisdictional levels of the local government. Specifically, only those activities or actions should beconsidered which the local government is capable of influencing like operationalisation ofstandards in building sector, promoting theconcept of 3R etc.

However, the concept of a low-carbon society
has a different meaning for the developingworld. Countries, like India, still have low per
capita emissions, are on an increasing economic growth trajectory and have priorities inmeeting the development needs, like education, healthcare.

At the next level, the LCS framework at the citylevel should look at opportunities which create
various kinds of co-benefits apart from direct
GHG emission reductions. Such co-benefits,
like improved local air quality, provide an opportunity to minimize social costs of such atransition. The other advantage of such an approach would be in achieving “ multiple dividends ” , at minimum social cost. It also helps
in achieving various developmental goals of thecity and therefore, is in line with the concept ofsustainable development.

But, the LCS opportunity for developing countries arrives with a window of opportunity, as it
gives a chance for such countries to avoid
critical lock-ins; particularly in long-lived infrastructure assets. From the perspective of acity, like Ahmedabad, the LCS opportunity is awindow to decide about the future flow of energy through infrastructure and other behavioral and lifestyle related choices and therefore the importance of such a study.

Extending the LCS framework further, the city
would therefore be in conformance with a climate friendly regime. However at the sametime the city would also be resilient to climatic
variability. The LCS opportunity should therefore be looked at in terms of a platform forplanning for climatic exigencies and therefore,
minimize operational and other losses.

For setting priorities within the overall framework of an LCS society, it is imperative to understand the long-term goals for such a society. At the Ahmedabad city level, the overall
aim of implementing actions within the LCS
framework should aim at improving the8Target Setting and Timeline
The current selection of target year, 2035 ischosen to keep in mind two time periods:( 1 ) Period up to 2020 ( the terminal year of
Post-Kyoto global carbon architecture
period ) and;( 2 ) Period beyond 2020, which gives an opportunity to check the progress made towards the long-term commitment of GHG
emission reductions by global leaders by
2050.
The time period is typically situated so as tobeen endorsed at the 2009 declaration by theleaders of the “ Major Economies Forum on
Energy and Climate ” . As per our modeling
analysis for India, using other global climate
models, for the year 2035 this stabilization target of 2º Celsius translates into a 67% reduction in GHG emissions from BAU level. Thus,
the countermeasures for a low carbon society
scenario ( 2035 LCS ) in Ahmedabad havealso been designed to achieve a 67% reduction
from 2035 BAU emissions.
The idea of LCS is not committing to the 2 deg
C target, but an aspirational attempt being
made by India. However, this target is subject
to adequate financial and technological commitment as agreed upon under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change and also, by
the declaration of world leaders of major
economies.

Figure 2: ―Ellis Bridge‖ connecting east and west Ahmedabad

assess the progress towards meeting GHG
emission targets. Therefore actions taken now
could be assessed by 2035 so as to get a realistic estimate about achieving deep cuts in
GHG emissions by 2050; as envisaged by
global leaders at ( G8+5 ) summit in 2009.
The targets in this study are in line with suchglobal commitments as city level planning is apart of the larger national policy making in India. The immediate future, 2020 ( terminal
year of post-Kyoto period, to be agreed upon at
Copenhagen in December 2009 ) and the long-term future, 2050; coincides well with the target year of 2035 chosen for this study.

Figure 3: A glimpse of land use planning scenario in Ahmedabad

A city like Ahmedabad is also participatory tothese global efforts but would need financial,technical and other ( c arbon finance ) instruments, as agreed upon under the framework
convention on climate change, to achievethese aspirational targets. These efforts do notunder any circumstance, undermine the importance of various bilateral efforts in achieving
the LCS targets.

In the recent ( G8+5 ) summit, deep global
reduction target of GHG emissions was agreed
upon by nations coinciding with the maximum
temperature rise of 2º Celsius ( stabilization
target ) and the present LCS study is in linewith the same targets. This scenario has also9About Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad is the largest city in Gujarat
and also, its commercial capital. It is the seventh largest urban agglomeration ( UA ) in
India. The city was founded in the year 1411
AD and is located on the banks of River Sabarmati. Ahmedabad gets its name from Sultan
Ahmed Shah, who founded the city.

The city plays a significant role in theeconomy of the state of Gujarat. Ahmedabad
accounts for almost 19 percent of main urban
workers in the state and 60 percent in Ahmedabad District. Several key high-growth industries
such as textiles, pharmaceuticals and natural
gas are already firmly anchored in Ahmedabad.
The industrial centers around Ahmedabad arecontinuously experiencing expansion on account of economic growth. Ahmedabad is alsoa major financial centre contributing about 14%of the total investments in stock exchanges inIndia. The economic base of the city is now
shifting towards tertiary ( service ) sectors,
which now account for more than 50% of total
employment.

Historically Ahmedabad has been oneof the most important centers of trade andcommerce in western India. It was once known
as the “ Manchester of India ” owing to its textile industry. Today some of the industrial activities that have flourished in the city include
chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, dyes
and paints. Ahmedabad's status as an important centre of trade and commerce remains
unchanged. The city also has a large market
for consumer goods in the retailing sector.

Ahmedabad and its surroundings are
currently under the jurisdictional authority of
two local bodies, namely the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation ( A MC ) and the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority ( AUDA ) .
Beyond the municipal limits; the development
is managed by the AUDA.
Table 1: Ahmedabad Demographics
Parameter

AMC

Urban
Agglomeration

Figure 4: East and West Ahmedabad separated by the Sabarmati River

The city of Ahmedabad developed in acluster enclosed by a wall that was built in
1456 AD. In the late 19th century, development
started spilling over towards the northeast andsoutheast of the walled city. With the establishment of the first textile mill in 1861, residences also developed across the western sideof the Sabarmati river.

Population (million)- 1991- 2001- 2006(estimated)

2.8
3.5
4.9

3.3
4.5
5.1

Population Growth- 1991-2001

2.03%

2.74%

Area (Km2)- 2001- 2006

190.8
464.1

485
485

18,445*9,290
10,609Density (per sq. km.)
2001
2006

*In 2006, the jurisdictional limit of AMC was increased to 464.16 sq. km. This
new limit coincides with the limits of the Ahmedabad Urban Agglomeration. The
density of AMC in 2006 has not been calculated since the area of AMC in 2006
was almost equal to the UA area and the new AMC limits now included the
population formerly housed in UA limits.

UA: It is a continuous urban spread constituting a town and its adjoining urban outgrowths

10Some Initiatives Underway
Many initiatives are being undertaken currently by
the city. The state government announced thetownship policy in 2006. This policy promotes
townships to come up at growth nodes emerging
around various industrial clusters. The policy
sees the government as a facilitator providing'trunk infrastructure' like access roads, bulk watersupply and bulk power ( e lectricity and gas ) .
This would facilitate effective planning for citylevel infrastructure for future scenarios. Besides,
there are various initiatives underway in the urban transport infrastructure sector, with the Bus
Rapid Transit System ( B RTS ) under execution
and the Mass Rapid Transit System ( Metro )also being planned. These initiatives would also
play a significant role in deciding about energy
choices for the city.

enhanced quality of service for passengers, mapping out loss making routes, reduces overlappingof routes and maximizing fleet usage by efficientmanagement through constant monitoring of
buses on various routes. The local government
has also taken an initiative to develop the Sabarmati riverfront ( Figure 6 ) . This project also
demonstrates governance initiative, since it isbeing managed by a special purpose vehicle( S PV ) , which is coordinating all the activities
pertaining to this project.

The new regional plan submitted to
the government envisages Ahmedabad into amuch bigger Ahmedabad Metropolitan Area. It
plans for a multi-modal transportation hub with
Metro rail, BRTS, regional rail and the mass rapidtransit systems in the next 7-10 years. This regional plan has been prepared for an area of
10,000 Km2 , which also comprises of 5 air strips
within 65 km radius from the city and four multimodal transport stations in the vicinity.

Figure 6: Sabarmati River Front , being developed at Ahmedabad

Among the latest technological innovation, theAMC has developed Asia’ s largest landfill site todispose 1.15 million tonne of waste, developed
over a total area of 2.77 Km2. It has been designed to meet city ’ s requirements for the next
30 years. Solid waste will be segregated into biodegradable and non-biodegradable categories
and dumped in a systematic manner, adhering toenvironmental standards. The waste would thenbe used to make pellets and fluff, to be used asfuel in local industries. The initiative of recycling
waste to useful energy form by generation of
methane ( CH4 ) is successfully being runningunder pilot phase for other existing solid waste
management ( SWM ) treatment plant.

Figure 5: ―Janmarg‖ - The BRTS Corridor under development

Reforms in the public transportation system includes low-floored CNG buses fitted with vehicle
tracking system ( GPS) and bus conductors
with hand-held electronic ticketing machine. This
has resulted in an increase of bus patronage, andimproved collection. This has also resulted in an

The creation of such an environmental infrastructure leads to multiple dividends. The area aroundthe newly created SWM site has been planned to
be developed as a “ Green Zone ” , which would
contribute in improving the ambient environment.

11Socio Economic Scenario: 2035
Assumptions of the future society
The population of Ahmedabad has increased
from 2.8 million in 1991 to 3.5 million in
2001. In response to rapid increase in population and development on the fringes, thejurisdictional limit of AMC was increased to464.16 sq. km in 2006. The major portion ofthis extension of municipal borders hastaken place on the western side of Ahmedabad. The western region is actually seen as
the modern, dynamic and well-planned partof the city, offering world-famous educational
institutions, most recent malls and entertainment facilities, and high-income residential
areas. The new outgrowths have been in
the western parts of the city, within the
AUDA jurisdiction.
Using the growth rates from UN medium
term population projections for India, it canbe estimated that the population of Ahmedabad in 2035 would increase to 11.16 million.
Using this assumption about population, andother assumptions ( Table 2 ) about 2035
Ahmedabad, future socio-economic indicators in 2035 are estimated by the tool. Fol-lowing are the important results of economy,households and transport sector scenario in
2035.
Economy: Modeling results show that thereal GDP of Ahmedabad is expected to beapproximately INR 7300 billion ( 12.9 times
the 2005 level ) . An input-output frameworkhas been used to determine the future
structure of the economy. Model results
show that the structure of the ecnomy is asfollows: share of the primary sector changes
from 3.1% in 2005 to 1.7% in 2035, forsecondary sector it reduces to 61.7% and in

Figure 7: Road infrastructure around Ahmedabad

Table 2: Quantitative Assumptions of socio-economic indicators ( 2035)
Av. Number of people/household

3.1

Demographic composition

0-14 [30%], 15-64 [63%], 65+ [7%]Primary Industry Exports

Growing @ 6.6%

Secondary Industry Exports

Growing @ 6.6%

Tertiary Industry Exports

Growing @ 6.5%

Private consumption

Increasing @ 12.0%

Government consumption

Increasing @ 11.9%

Fixed capital formation

Increasing @ 12.1%

Modal share

Rail [10%], Bus [35%], Car [20%], Two-wheelers[10%],Auto-rickshaw[10%],Walk & Cycle [15%]% denotes CAGR; [%] denotes percentage share; $ corresponds to years 2005 US Dollar

12the tertiary sector, it changes from 27.7% in2005 to 36.7% in 2035. Considering thetrends, we can conclude that the primarysector has decreased by 1.4% , the secondary sector has decreased by 7.6% and thetertiary sector has correspondingly increased
by 9.0% during the period ( in absolute %terms ) .
Households: The number of houses of type 1( d etached or apartment, greater than 25 m2
area ) would increase from 0.89 million in2005 to 3.27 million in 2035 while a decrease would happen in houses of type 2( s hanty, less than 25 m2 area ) . Thus, withincreased economic affluence, a major portion of the population will stay in type 1
houses.
Commercial: The total floor space for commercial activities has been assumed to increase from 103 sq. km in 2005 to 282 sq.
km in 2035.

Transport: Passenger transport demand will
increase from 21 billion passenger-km in2005 to 33 billion passenger-km level in2035 while the corresponding freight demand would be 126 million tonne-km in 2035
as compared to 7 million tonne-km in 2005 .

Figure 8: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Campus

Table 3: Estimation result of scenario quantification in 2035 Ahmedabad

2005

2035

2035/2005

Population ( millions )

4.87

11.16

2.3

No. of households ( millions )

1.18

3.62

3.1

GDP ( billion INR )

273

3380

12.4

GDP per capita ( ‘ 0 00 INR )

56

338

6.0

Gross output ( billion INR)

567

7300

12.9

-Primary industry-Secondary

17

115

6.8

393

4506

11.5

-Tertiary

157

2679

17

Floor space for commercial ( sq. km )

103

282

2.7

Passenger Transport Demand ( billion pkm )Freight Transport Demand ( million t-km )

21

33

1.6

7

126

18

BAU Energy Demand ( million toe )

1.8

18

10

BAU CO2 Emissions ( million ton -CO2 )

10

61

6.1

BAU Emissions per capita ( t-CO2 )

2.1

5.5

2.6

13

Energy & Emissions : 2035
in substantial quantities in the transport sector
also. Renewable energy sources , particularly
solar and biomass power show minor contribution in the energy mix.
In the 2035 LCS case, the energy profile has
an interesting description. Gas penetration has
decreased slightly but the electricity from coalis generated by coal + CCS ( low carbon
electricity ) . Another typical and interesting
feature of the energy demand profile is theslight penetration of H2 energy in the transport
sector in 2035 under the LCS scenario, a realization which is definitely possible.

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

35
30

Solar
Nuclear

20

Hydro

15

H2
Gas

10

2005
Residential
Industry
Freight Transport

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

5

Commercial
Passenger Transport

0

Oil

Coal

2005

Figure 9: Final energy demand by sector

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

Figure 10: Energy demand by primary energy

70

6.00

60

Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Industry
Commercial
Residential

40

5.00

t-CO2/capita

50

Mt CO2

Biomass

25

mtoe

mtoe

The macroeconomic data is used to estimate
future energy demand and the corresponding
GHG emissions in 2035, based on scenario
quantification. The estimated results about energy demand and GHG emissions are shown in
Figures 9-12 below. Final energy demand in
Ahmedabad is projected to increase from 1.8
million toe in 2005 to 18 million toe in 2035
( B AU scenario ) . Energy demand for industry
is expected to be 12832.17 ktoe, having ashare of 70.4%. However, the major source ofenergy demand is met by electricity in 2035
( i n this case, gas based thermal power generation ) , closely followed by coal based generation ( 23.8% ) . Oil follows later with a percentage of 9.9% , with almost equal share in
residential and industrial usage. It is also used

30

4.00

3.00

5.47

2.00

20
1.00

10

2.09

1.82

0.00

0
2005

2035 BaU

2005

2035 LCS

Figure 11: GHG emissions by sector

2035 BAU

Figure 12: Per capita GHG emissions

142035 LCS

Based on the energy demand by source, theGHG emissions in Ahmedabad are projected
to increase from 10 million ton -CO2 in 2005 to
61 million ton -CO2 in 2035 under BAU scenario. A sectoral analysis of GHG emissions
points that emission from the industry sector
will be about 6.56 times than what it is in 2005.
Similar results for the passenger transport is
14.68, freight transport is 7.74 , residential is1.49 and commercial sector is 10.40.

tial as compared to energy efficiency improvements in the LCS scenario for Ahmedabad.
The major emission reduction potential is from
improvements in energy intensity of economic
activities, low carbon power ( coal with CCS,
more renewable like hydro, solar and biomass ) , reduction in energy service demand( f or industrial and commercial sector ) , fuelswitch in power, transport and industrial sector;
and measures promoting end-use device efficiency ( particularly, in the transport sector,
industrial and residential sector ) .

In order to transit to a low carbon society in Ahmedabad, several countermeasures are required. It is interestingly observed from the output that for a LCS transition in Ahmedabad,decarbonization has a higher mitigation poten-

Table 4: Final energy demand by sector ( Unit: ktoe)
Coal

Oil

Gas

H2

Solar

Biomass

Electricity

Total

Residential

0.00

174.00

0.03

0.00

0.31

2.00

167.00343.34

Commercial

0.00

35.00

0.03

0.00

0.00

0.00

42.00

77.03

Industry579.00145.00124.00

0.00

0.00

15.00

194.001057.00

P- Transport

0.00

234.00

13.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.00

248.002005 (ktoe)

F- Transport

0.00

121.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

121.00

Total

579.00709.00137.06

0.00

0.31

17.00

404.001846.37

Share (%)

31.34%

38.37%

7.45%

0.00%

0.02%

0.92%

21.9%

100%

Residential

0.00

237.00250.00

0.00

1.60

1.60

454.00944.20Commercial

0.00

0.00

805.00

0.00

25.00

0.00

832.001662.00

Industry

947.001332.00

8341.00

0.00

0.00

379.001833.00

12832.00

P- Transport

0.00

56.00

73.00

0.00

0.00

12.00

1484.00

1625.00

F- Transport

0.00

935.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

219.000.00

1154.00

Total

947.002560.00

9469.00

0.00

26.60

611.604603.00

18217.20

Share (%)

5.20%

14.05%

51.98%

0.00%

0.15%

3.36%

25.27%

100%

Residential

0.00

117.33

191.19

0.00

3.20

0.00

492.31804.03

Commercial

0.00

0.00

432.01

0.00

30.30

0.00

497.09959.40Industry

0.00

0.00

4227.88

0.00

0.00

103.141404.435735.45

P- Transport

0.00

38.67

29.12

3.05

0.00

6.52

1042.521119.88

F- Transport

0.00

579.75

0.00

0.00

0.00

64.42

0.00

644.17

Total

0.0

735.754880.20

3.05

33.50

174.083436.35

9262.93

Share (%)

0.00%

7.94%

52.68%

0.03%

0.36%

1.88%

37.10%

100%

2035- BAU

2035 - LCS

P-Transport: Passenger Transport, F-Transport: Freight Transport

15

Mitigation potential in 2035
The current CO2 emissions for Ahmedabad are
10.17 million ton -CO2 ( 2 005 ) . In 2035, thisfigure will increase to 61.1 million ton CO2 under the BAU scenario. However, under a 67%
reduction countermeasure scenario, the emissions need to be reduced to 20.4 million ton CO2.

4.3 million ton CO2 in industry and 2.4 million
ton CO2 in the building sector. A cross cutting
factor of fuel-switch ( from oil to gas ) is observed to be contributing a good portion of CO2
cut. This happens primarily in the transport andindustry sector.
In order to transit to a low carbon economy,
several measures are required. The key measures include improving energy intensity( a chieved through reducing energy service
demand ) , providing low carbon power ( coalwith CCS ) , fuel switch in transport and industrial sector and measures promoting end-use
device efficiency ( particularly, in the transport
sector, industrial and residential sector ) .

The largest reduction of 15.4 million ton CO2
comes from reduction in energy service demand, primarily in the industrial sector. The
second big chunk comes from low-carbon
power ( coal + CCS, in partial form and thisoption is proved to be available in and around
Ahmedabad in abundance ) . The next big potential is in the form of fuel switching ( togas ) - 6.3 million ton CO2. Energy efficiency
improvements provide the balance, which arein the transport sector ( 3.7 million ton CO 2 ) ,Figure 13 : Breakdown of emissions reduction potential

70.0

GHG Emissions/reductions (mt- C02)

60.0

3.7

4.3
2.4

50.0

6.3

Efficiency Improvement (Transport)
Efficiency Improvement (Industry)
Efficiency Improvement ( Building)

Fuel Switch

40.0

Reduction in Energy Service demand

15.4

Emissions

61.1

30.0

8.6
20.0

20.4

10.0
10.2

0.0
2005

Coal + CCS

2035 BaU

2035 LCS

16

Eight “Actions” toward LCS
are implemented in the most non-conflicting
manner and the financing action ensures thatthe actions are able to attract innovative financing mechanisms so that the actions are sustainable by itself.

General introduction of actions
Broadly, the actions are enumerated in the following table. The actions can be broadly categorized into those that promotes improvementsin efficiency, to those that encourages sustainable mode of transportation and finally, to clean
forms of energy. However within these actions,the overarching action of governance and financing has been separately considered. The
governance aspect ensures that the actions

1

However it must be noted that all the actions
yield multiple co-benefits and build adaptive
capacities of the local population.

Actions

Options

Sustainable Transport● Mass transit systems like train and bus● Shift from oil to gas and electricity● Promoting zero carbon transport, like bicycles● Use ICT for better transport management● Appropriate

infrastructure that promotes transition
to bicycle and walking

2

Energy Efficiency● Energy labeling program implementation● Device efficiency standardization in all sectors

3

Low -Carbon Electricity● Option of CCS in the present electricity supply sys-tem
● Promoting

transition towards procuring “ green ”

power● Promoting new power infrastructure based on ad-vanced renewable energy technologies

4

Material Efficiency

5

Environmental Infrastructure

6

Land Use Planning

7

Governance8

Financing● Using 3R principle to promote resource conserva-tion, dematerialization, and recycling● Use of sustainable, less energy intensive , local
and renewable materials● Promotion of efficiency at building level● Water resource management● Waste Management ( S olid, Liquid )● Improving built environment ( reducing urban heatisland effect )● Increasing Green Cover● Coordination, planning and implementation of LCS
actions● Filling the viability gap, for new LCS infrastructure17Description of “Actions”
The action on Sustainable transport comprises of focus on vehicle efficiency improvements,
fuel switch from oil to gas ( private vehicles and buses ) and electricity ( t rain and buses ) ,better traffic management and shift from private vehicles to public vehicles ( bus and train ) .
However to achieve such a scenario, certain indirect actions would be required. Some ofthese actions will be standardization of vehicle efficiencies, gas supply infrastructure and appropriate institutional mechanisms to ensure transition to mass based transit systems. From
the developing countries view-point, such an action would yield multiple benefits. On the cobenefits side, there would be improvement in local air quality due to reduced pollution andreduction in use of natural resources. Sustainable transport will lead to various adaptation
benefits as well, by enhancing health security ( owing to improved air quality ) and energy
security ( due to reduced energy usage, specially oil ) .
The action on Energy Efficiency ( EE ) is focused on efficiency improvements achieved
through device improvements. These efficiency impacts are realized in residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors. It is believed that due to technological innovations andimprovements, such high efficiency factors are realizable. These efficiency improvements
can be consistently achieved through implementation of uniform building codes ( efficiency
in residential sector ) , promotion of local and less carbon intensive material for construction
and designing an appropriate institutional mechanism to facilitate such a transition.
The action on Low Carbon Electricity aims at decoupling the carbon intensity of power sector
by using more renewable sources of energy for power generation or by using coal with CCS
option. Another aspect in low carbon electricity is generating electricity from waste ( solid
waste management ) . Such possibilities have already been explored for Ahmedabad, andare realistic. Such shifts in energy technology would yield multiple benefits, such as improvement in local air quality and effective waste management. On the adaptation side, investments in low carbon electricity would generate livelihood and build capacity in low carbon
energy technologies. Besides, it would also enhance health security ( owing to improved air
quality ) and energy security ( due to reduced usage of fossil fuels, specially coal ) .
The action on Material Efficiency aims at promoting resource conservation, dematerialization,and recycling . This will also provide significant co-benefits in terms of promoting a sustainable lifestyle, better control of energy service flows and resource conservation. These measures would also result in improving livelihood security ( generation of employment throughlocal industries ) and enhance energy security by the overall reduction in energy demand.
The action on Environmental Infrastructure comprises of creating various infrastructures suchas solid waste management facilities and sewage treatment plants. Apart from direct mitigation benefits, these are important in realizing other co-benefits such as promotion of 3R andenhancing the quality of life. For example, a modern landfill can also be a source of fuels in
the form of land fill gas ( LFG ) , pellets and fluff, which can be used in the local industries.

18

The action on Land Use planning, targets at increasing the green cover and improving the built
environment so as to reduce the urban heat island effect. This will also offer the co-benefits ofenhancing the quality of life, controlling energy flows, and better adaptation to extreme weather
events.
The larger framework of Governance comprises of how to govern the city. Local government executes at the interface of the state and the centre and therefore has to plan, implement and coordinate a host of activities. To facilitate a smooth transition to a low carbon city, the local governmentof Ahmedabad would need an effective governance and institutional mechanism. Governanceinitiatives will have an overlapping influence in ensuring sustained sectoral emission reductions.
In the residential and commercial sector, effective governance would comprise of implementing
uniform building codes, ensuring faster penetration of energy labeling programs and greater public awareness about reducing energy consumption. In the transport sector, governance initiatives
should focus on better city planning ( to reduce congestion, and encourage shorter movements )and standardizing vehicle efficiency norms. And in the industry and power sector, it comprises of
implementing energy efficiency standards and ensuring mandatory fuel switch to cleaner fuels.
In the context of developing nations, Financing plays a key role in any low carbon initiative over
and above the business as usual transition. Thus, the deep emission cuts would involve substantial investments in low-carbon infrastructure. Besides, these infrastructure and technology choices
would also lead to some economic losses ( G DP ) , which would translate into developmental
loss and would have to be compensated through international investments and technology transfer. For ensuring a transition to a low carbon society, various financial initiatives would be necessary at the local level. In the building sector, financial incentives are needed for energy efficiency
improvements ( advance technologies in end use devices ) , and initiatives like green buildings.
In the transport sector, financial support is needed for huge investments in public transport infrastructure, modern transport technology ( traffic management ) , and incentives to promote efficient vehicles. Industry sector needs to be supported with financial initiatives such as tax benefits
for investments in efficient and low carbon technology equipments. For the power sector, investments in CCS and renewable energy technologies need to be appropriately supported financially.

MUNICIPAL BONDS FOR FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN AHMEDABAD
Before 1993-94, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation was a loss-making urban local body with accumulated cash
losses of Rs. 350 million. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC) improved its fiscal profile from 1993 to 1996
by introducing several significant fiscal and management reforms. These innovations laid the groundwork for issuing
a municipal bond.. In 1998, the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation issued its first municipal bonds for Rs. 1000 million. The issue was designed to partially finance a Rs. 4890 million water supply and sewerage program. This was aremarkable achievement as it was the first municipal bond issue in India without a state government guarantee and it
represented the first step towards fully market-based system of local government finance. Ahmedabad emerges inthe top ten cities category, whose corporation is the most credit worthy. After the first bond was issued in 1998,
which was placed publicly ; the other three bonds of total value of 258 crore was privately placed. Expert opinion
suggest that the Indian capital markets are hugely under-developed and municipal bonds are a good way to tap into
this fast growing funds market. Ahmedabad has been traditionally a safe haven for investors, owing to the reforms inaccounting practices and consistently generating good income.

19GovernanceAt the outset, governance structure is a hierarchicalweb of interactions at various levels. These interactions, popularly termed as organization structure,
help in delineating responsibilities and setting up
jurisdictional boundaries. For e.g., AMC is divided
into various zones and each zone has Deputy Municipal Commissioner with the overall responsibilityof the zone. However many common and overlapping functions are aggregated at the AMC level, likewater supply and production. These departments
have to ensure coordination at all levels to facilitate
implementation of any initiative. This becomes anonerous task for a large area, and therefore manifests itself in various inefficiencies. The local government has thus embarked upon various initiatives so
as to solve this problem. One of the initiative is theContinuous Monitoring System – to bring more accountability and transparency ( at all levels of governance ) .
Another aspect in the governance structure is theform of governing arrangement. AMC has come up
with innovative forms of local governance, like Public-Private Partnership ( i mplemented in Solid Waste
Management Projects ) , Special Purpose Vehicle( l ike the BRTS project, and the Sabarmati Riverfront Development Project ) , among others. These
forms help in managing policy implementation in a
viable and effective framework.
Key function of the local government lies in coordinating, planning and implementing policies. Howeverwith a number of policy initiatives, and with overlapping governance structures; it becomes extremely
difficult in achieving the desired results. For example, BRTS ( Bus Rapid System ) project is implemented via a Special Purpose Vehicle ( SPV ) , a
typical project structure which is run on commercial
principles, but local implementation overlaps withjurisdictional responsibilities of various state departments like the traffic police, regional transport office.
These offices come under the control of the state
government and therefore, it is a challenge for the
local authorities to remove the multifarious effects ofcoordination failure.

Financing
The options at the local level comprise of innovative
financial mechanisms, like through ‘ municipal bondmarket ’ and through innovative institutional arrangements. On the institutional front, for example;
the Sabarmati River Front Project is a Special Purpose Vehicle, aimed at reclaiming land on the sidesof the river Sabarmati. Not only improving the built
environment through this initiative of an environmentally initiated infrastructure, this initiative aims to sella part of the land claimed back on commercial basis.
This improves the viability of the project and ensures
speedy pay-back.
Thus in the overall framework of governance andfinancing, the set of activities like form, finance andstructure; help in connecting with the framework ofsustainability for the LCS society ( from the resources side as well as from the consumption

20

side ) . It also looks at the redistribution justice aspect, as people participate at the lowest levels andconcern about the common citizen in the policy making process helps in ensuring equity in the decision
making progress.
Most of the cities in the current context exhibit voluntary participation in various activities. However,these voluntary participations predicate upon various
inputs like information, capacity and support fromstake holders. As of now, most of these initiatives
are achieved through private channels only and are
in isolation. And therefore, effective governancestructures is a fundamental aspect in ensuring implementation of various LCS actions. Uniform sustainability frameworks can only be implemented
through effective governance structures backed bypolicies, laws and regulations.

Energy and Environment Policies in India
There have been numerous policy initiatives, legislations and acts enacted and introduced in the environment and energy domain in India. These policies,
legislations and acts have focused either individuallyon an environmental sector like water, air or they
have targeted broadly the entire value chain of theenergy sector. For example, the latest policy document adopted by the Government of India - the Integrated Energy Policy Roadmap, 2006. This policy
road-map has been accepted by the Government ofIndia ( GoI ) in 2009, and which broadly links energy sector to the goals of Sustainable Development
by developing policies that promote ‘ efficiency ’and reflect externalities associated with energy consumption.

“ n ational missions ” running through 2017 and directed ministries to submit detailed implementationplans to the Prime Minister ’ s Council on Climate
Change by December 2008.

Further in June, 2008; the Prime Minister of India
released India ’ s first National Action Plan on Climate Change ( NAPCC) outlining existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation. The plan identifies eight core

The eight National Missions and their related targets
are elucidated below in the table. These targets arein line with the mitigation of GHG emissions across
many sectors, and therefore are important from theperspective of an LCS study.

No.

National Mission

Emphasizing the importance of high economic
growth rates, the plan “ identifies measures that
promote our development objectives while also
yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change
effectively. ” It says “ t hese national measureswould be more successful with assistance from developed countries ” , and pledges that India ’ s per
capita greenhouse gas emissions “ will at no point
exceed that of developed countries even as we pursue our development objectives. ”

Targets

1

National Solar Mission

Specific targets for increasing use of solar thermal technologies in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments

2

National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001

3

National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

Extending the existing Energy Conservation Building Code; Emphasis
on urban waste management and recycling, including power production
from waste (3R)

4

National Water Mission

20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and othermeasures5

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

Conservation of biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values
in the Himalayan region, where glaciers are projected to recede

6

National Mission for a “Green India”

Expanding forest cover from 23% to 33%

7

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

Promotion of sustainable agricultural practices

8

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate
Change:The plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund that supports activities like climate modeling, and increased international collaboration; It also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies

Moreover, there are other specific programs identified for implementation, within the National Action
Plan from the mitigation perspective. It mandates theretirement of old inefficient coal-fired power plants
and supports R&D in making IGCC and supercritical technologies to be used as power plant tech-

nology. It also envisages initiatives like renewable
portfolio standard for all states and mandatory energy audits for energy intensive industries. The planalso advocates for aggressive implementation of theenergy labeling program.

21

Buildings ( Residential & Commercial sector)
Residential Sector
4.00

3.63

3.50
3.00
Million Households

The number of households in Ahmedabad is
assumed to increase from 1.18 million in 2005
to 3.6 million in 2035 ( BAU ) . This increaseis on account of expanding population andreduction in persons per household due to increasing urbanization. Since the number ofhouseholds is a major driver for energy demand, the final energy consumption increases
from 343 ktoe in 2005 to 944 ktoe in 2035
( B AU ) , which is reduced to 804 ktoe under
the LCS scenario. The corresponding CO2
emissions changes from 4.21 million ton CO2 in 2035 ( BAU ) to 1.90 million ton -CO2
in 2035 LCS scenario. The largest mitigation
potential is change in the nature of centralized
power supply and end use device efficiency.

2.50
2.00
1.50

1.18

1.00
0.50
0.00
2005

2035 BAU

Figure 14: Number of households

The commercial floor space area is assumed
to increase from 103 sq. km in 2005 to 282
sq. km in 2035, on account of increased commercial activities in the economy. Commercial
floor space area is the major driver for energy
demand. By changing the nature of centralized power supply and end use device efficiency , final energy consumption reducesfrom 1662 ktoe ( BAU-2035 ) to 959 ktoe
( B AU-LCS ) . The corresponding emission
reduction is from 7.22 million ton -CO2 to 2.08
million ton -CO2 in 2035 LCS scenario.

Floor Space of Commercial ( Km 2)

Commercial Sector
282

300
250
200
150
103
100
50
0
2005

2035 BAU

Figure 15: Floor space of commercial

Policy package for buildings and commercial sector
The policy package for mitigation of GHG emissions in the building and commercial sector
comprises of energy efficiency, fuel switch ( end use and centralized power supply ) andreduction in energy service demand. The energy efficiency improvements are achieved
through end-use device efficiency as well as material efficiency. These measures can be implemented by appropriate policies such as providing financial incentives, implementation of
uniform building codes, energy labeling programs, public awareness building and financial &technical support for implementing coal with CCS and also, financial incentives for promotionof renewable.

22

2005

2035 BAU

2035 LCS

2005
Value in 2005 = 1

Value in 2005 = 1

4
3
2
1

2035 BAU

2035 LCS

30.0

20.0
10.0

0.0

0

No of
Households

EnergyDemandFloor Space

GHG
EmissionsFigure 16: Change from base year : Residential Sector

EnergyDemandGHG
EmissionsFigure 17: Change from base year : Commercial Sector

Energy Efficiency

Fuel Switch

Energy Service Demand

1.01

20%

1.58

48%
32%
2.38

Figure 18: Action wise mitigation potential in building sector (million tonne CO2)

Financing— Financial incentives for energy efficiency improvements and for investments in green power

End use device
efficiency

Building Efficiency

Energy Efficiency
Improvement
Mitigation from
Residential & Commercial
SectorGreen Power from Renewable

Clean Power
Coal + CCS

Governance— Implementation of uniform building codes, energy labeling programs & public awareness,

Figure 19: Mitigation policy package for residential and commercial sector

23

Transport ( Passenger & Freight )Passenger Transport Sector
35000
1032
4129

30000

2064
25000
Transport Demand (Mn p-km)

In 2035 ( BAU ) , the passenger transport demand is assumed to be 33 billion p- km, which has been assumed toremain the same in the 2035 LCS
case. However the final energy consumption reduces from 1625 ktoe to1120 ktoe, under the LCS scenario.
Correspondingly the emissions reducefrom 10.21 million ton -CO2 to 2.66 million ton -CO2. The largest mitigation isachieved from vehicle efficiency andimproved traffic management. Moreover, there is a major share of this demand serviced by electric buses andtrains. This shift provides the multiple
benefit of reduction in energy demandon account of modal shift, and reduction in emissions due to fuel switchfrom Oil/Gas to low carbon electricity.

406
20000
16256
8466
15000
1505
10000
4892
8257

5000
5644

1548

0
2005
Autorickshaw

Car2035 BAU
Bus

Train

Motorcycle

Walk+ Cycle

Figure 20: Passenger transport demand ( Million p– km)

Freight Transport Sector
140

Transport Demand (Mn t-km)

The freight demand in Ahmedabad is serviced by trucks, and the energy demand
from freight transport increases substantially in the BAU scenario to 1154 ktoe.
This increase is on account of manufacturing activities in the economy. Under
the LCS scenario, the energy demand
reduces to 644.17 ktoe, due to vehicle
efficiency improvement and travel demand management. The corresponding
reduction in GHG emissions is from 2.61
million ton -CO2 to 1.62 million ton -CO2.

126
111

120
100
80
60
40
20

7

0
2005

2035 BAU

2035 CM

Figure 21: Freight transport demand ( Million t– km)

Policy package for transport sector
The policy package of the transport sector primarily comprises of focus on energy efficiency( V ehicle efficiency, traffic management and shift form private vehicles to public vehicles ) ,fuel switch ( oil to gas, oil to electricity ) , and reduction in freight transport demand. There
should be an increased thrust on electric vehicles, for both private vehicles and public transport buses. In order to promote such a transition, efforts have to be focused on better city planning, investments in public transport systems, standardization of vehicle efficiency norms, financial incentives to promote vehicles with better efficiency.

24

2005

2035 BAU

2005

20.0

2035 LCS

Value of 2005 =1

Value in 2005 = 1

15.02035 BAU

2035 LCS

15.0

10.0

10.0

5.0
0.0
Passenger
Transport
DemandEnergyDemand5.0

0.0

GHG Emissions

Freight Transport Energy Demand
DemandFigure 22: Change from base year: Passenger Transport

GHG Emissions

Figure 23: Change from base year: Freight Transport

0.27
4%

2.00
34%
62%

3.67

Energy Efficiency

Fuel Switch

Energy Service Demand

Figure 24: Action wise mitigation potential in the transport sector (million tonne CO2)

Financing— Investments in public transport infrastructure and transport technology, financial incentives to promote efficient vehicles

VehicleEfficiency

Shift to Public Transport

Efficiency
Improvement
Mitigation from
Passenger & FreightTransport Sector

Better Traffic Management

Clean Power
Green Power& Coal + CCS

Governance— Better city planning, Standardization of vehicle efficiency norms

Figure 25: Mitigation policy package for passenger and freight transport sector

25Industry & Power Sector
Mitigation measures in the Industrial sector

2005

The industrial sector for this analysis comprisesof the manufacturing, construction, electricity &water, transport equipments and agriculture.
The output of these sectors increases to 7300
billion INR in 2035 BAU from 567 billion INR in
2005. The composition of industry in Ahmedabad would remain the same, with a change inthe structure.The energy consumption in theindustrial sector is 12.8 million toe in 2035
BAU. The emissions from the sector reduce to12.10 million ton CO2 in 2035 LCS case, asagainst 36.84 million ton CO2 in 2035 BAU.
This reduction is achieved by energy efficiency
improvements in end-use devises like boilers
and furnaces, fuel switch from coal & oil to gas
and clean electricity. Moreover the electricity isfrom cleaner centralized power, generated fromrenewable and coal + CCS.

Figure 26: Output by industry (Billion INR)

Value of 2005 =1

2005

2035 BAU

2035 CM

Energy Efficiency
Fuel Switch
Energy Service Demand

15.0

14.39

10.0

20%
5.0

2.50

0.0
Output ( Bn INR) Energy Demand

GHG Emissions

68%

12%

4.33

Figure 28 : Action wise mitigation potential in
Industry sector (million tonne CO2)

Figure 27: Change from base year in Industry sector

Policy package for Industry sector
The policy package for the industrial sector comprises of measures that promotes reduction
in energy service demand ( decoupling energy and industrial output) , energy efficiency
improvements in end-use devices ( boilers and other industrial equipments ) , and fuelswitch to cleaner fuels like gas and electricity. Financial incentives, and appropriate mandates for using energy efficient devices in the industry sector is essential. In order to achievethis, adequate investment incentives are to be provided either in the form of subsidies or accelerated depreciation for new investment in energy efficient technologies.

26

Mitigation measures in the Power sector
The power sector in Ahmedabad comprises of two power plants, one a 400 MW coal-based
power plant and another 100 MW gas-based power plant. Besides, electricity is also imported from the grid, which is predominantly coal based. Therefore the power sector emits
the maximum amount of GHGs on account of coal usage in huge quantities. The mitigation
potential in the power sector emerges from efficiency improvements , fuel switch to gas or
renewable energy like solar and biomass, clean energy in the form of nuclear ( major part ofthis energy is to be procured from the grid ) and also, by using the option of coal + CCS .
The total emission reduction of 41 million ton -CO2 in Ahmedabad in the 2035 LCS case has
a major contribution of 26.2 million ton -CO2 ( 6 4%of total ) from the power sector. Out of
this reduction from Power Sector, majority ( 67% or 17.6 million ton -CO2) is on account ofenergy efficiency and fuel switch in the power sector, and the remaining 33 % ( 8.6 million
ton -CO2 ) is contributed from using coal with CCS. Following table shows the contribution ofvarious primary energy sources to the electricity sector under 2005 ( Base) , 2035 ( BaU )and 2035 ( LCS ) Scenarios:
Table 5: Fuel wise composition of power sector (%)

%

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Total

2005

91.74

1.95

6.16

0.00

0.00

0.15

0.00

100.002035 BAU

38.90

1.90

22.40

14.50

8.20

5.20

8.90

100.002035 LCS

33.82*

0.94

15.03

16.11

12.21

7.65

14.24

100.00* 64.4 % of this is Coal + CCS

Figure 29: Mitigation policy package for Industry and Power Sector
Financing— Financial incentives like accelerated depreciation for investments in energy efficient and low carbon technologies

End use device efficiency

Energy efficient processes

Efficiency
Improvement
Mitigation from
Industry & Power
SectorFuel Switch to cleaner fuels

Clean Power
Green Power& Coal + CCS

Governance— Energy efficiency standards, mandatory fuel switch

27

Methodology
A Procedure to create a local LCS scenario
In order to create a local low-carbon society sce-

(1) Setting Framework

nario, we developed a method based on the idea of"back casting", which sets a desirable goal first, andthen seek the way to achieve it. Figure 27 shows over-(2) Description of socioeconomic assumptions(4) Collection of low carbon
measures(3) Quantification of socioeconomic assumptions(5) Setting introduction of
measures in target year

view of the method.
(1) Setting framework
Framework of an LCS scenario includes; target(6) Estimation of GHG
emissions in the target year

area, base year, target year, environmental target,
number of scenarios. Among them, the base year iscompared with target year. The target year should be(7) Confirming measures set andsuggestion of policy recommendations

far enough to realize required change, and nearenough to image the vision for the people in the re-Figure 27. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario

gion. In this study, we set the target year of Ahmedabad as 2035. This is also a suitable time span for anenergy saving behavior and carbon sink. Technical

LCS study for the reasons above and also, in line withdata is required to estimate their effect to reduce GHG

the explanation given earlier (p 4). As an environ-emissions.

mental target, we targeted CO2 from energy use be-

sumptions which are in line with a developing econ-cause it will be a main source of GHG emissions from
Ahmedabad in 2035.
(2)Assumptions of socio-economic situations
Before conducting quantitative estimation, qualitative future image should be written. It is an image oflifestyle, economy and industry, land use and so on.
For this, we made assumptions about the future in
Ahmedabad on various dimensions; such as economy,
population, land use, etc. These assumptions were
either based on the city CDP, or other government
estimates about socio-economic conditions.
(3)Quantification of socio-economic assumptions
To estimate Snapshot based on future image of (2),values of exogenous variables and parameters are set.
Using those input, ExSS calculates socio-economic
indices of the target year such as GDP, output by industry, transport demand, and so on.
(4)Collection of low-carbon measures
To collect counter measures which are thought to
be available in the target year. For example, high energy-efficiency devices, transport structure changesuch as public transport, use of renewable energy,

28

In this research we employed those as-omy and also, considering the fact that in 2035 quite anumber of advanced technologies and systems would
penetrate into India, and thus Ahmedabad.
(5)Setting introduction of counter measures
Technological parameters related to energy efficiencies are defined with respect to current efficiency
levels and also, its acceptance. In future estimates,
such consideration as more penetration due to costdecrease is taken into account in specifying estimates
about certain technologies.
(6)Estimation of GHG emission in the target year
Based on socio-economic indices and assumptionof measures' introduction, GHG emissions are calculated.
(7)Proposal of policies
Propose policy set to introduce the measures defined. Available policies depend on the local situationof Ahmedabad. ExSS can calculate emission reductionof each counter measure.
Therefore, it can show reduction potential of measures which especially needs local policy. It can also
identify measures which have high reduction potential and therefore important.

Quantitative estimation tool “Extended Snapshot Tool”
Figure 28 shows the structure of the Extended Snap-

dustries i.e. non-basic industries, through demand ofshot Tool (ExSS); seven blocks with input parameters,intermediate input and consumption of their employees.

exogenous variables and variables between modules.

Number of workers must fulfill labor demand of those

ExSS is a system of simultaneous equations. Given a set

productions. Given assumptions of where those workers

of exogenous variables and parameters, solution islive and labor participation ratio, population living in theuniquely defined. In this simulation model, only CO2

region is computed. This model enables us to consider

emission from energy consumption is calculated, eventhough, ESS can be used to estimate other GHG and environmental loads such as air quality. In many LCS scenarios, exogenously fixed population data are used.
However, people migrate more easily, when the target
region is relatively a smaller area such as a state, district,city or town. Population is decided by demand from outside of the region, labor participation ratio, demographic
composition and relationship of commuting with outsideof the region. To determine output of industries, inputoutput approach with “export-base approach” is combined in line with the theory of regional economics.
Industries producing export goods are called "basic
industry". Production of basic industries induces otherin•Export•Government expenditure•Import ratio •Labor productivity

Macro-economy andIndustry Modulemate energy demand and CO2 emissions. For future estimation, assumption of export value is especially important if the target region is thought to (or, desired to) develop led by particular industry.
Passenger transport demand is estimated from the
population and freight transport demand is a functionof output by industries. Floor area of commerce is determined as the driving force for commercial sector. Other
than these driving forces, activity level of each sector(energy demand by fuels) is determined from three parameters. One is energy service demand per driving
force, energy efficiency and fuel share. Diffusion ofcounter measures changes the value of these parameters,
and so GHG emissions.

•Commuting OD

Labor ModuleLabordemandWage

Averageworking time

Privateconsumption

Outputviewpoints of regional economic development to esti-

Number ofworkers

IncomeTime-use andConsumption Module•Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family
occupants

Population and Household
Number Module
Population
Number ofhousehold•Breakdown ofconsumption•Population distribution•Floor area per
outputFloor area ofcommercial buildings

Energy demand

Transport
ModuleCommercial
Building Module

Passenger and freighttransport demand

Energy Demand & GHG
Emissions Module•Energy service demand generation unit
•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor•Trip per parson•Transport distance•Modal share

Module

GHG emissions

Main endogenous
variables

Exogenous variables
and parameters

Flow of endogenous variables

Input

Figure 28. Overview of calculation system of Extended Snapshot Tool

29

Data Tables
Input-Output table in 2005 (Base year)
Private Investment

0.12

0.22

6.62

1.31

116.279.07

1.37

10.10 138.11 21.03

1.01

11.90

206.65 -26.51 352.20

Equip- 0.03

0.38

0.01

0.01

0.49

0.91

0.93

0.16

2.05

-4.05

0.00

0.14

7.77

0.94

0.18

2.46

11.49

0.10

0.86

21.33

-4.89

31.66

0.20

8.03

0.62

2.28

1.56

12.70

0.65

0.20

-9.23

9.09

1.29

72.13

5.27

1.65

20.25 100.60 47.19

14.45

5.85

261.36 17.45

6.58

38.33 329.57

9.30

51.44

11.32

2.66

94.95

12.86

2.83

0.66

23.74

26.54

0.06

-0.81

-0.10

17.02 352.20 31.66

9.09

156.93

Total Input

Value Add -Wage
Value
Add
- 2.32
CapitalTax & Subsidy
Total Output

-0.46

2.78
4.77

1.00

1.22

Total

Services

ImportConstruction
Electricity
and
Water

Export19.46

Government
Investment

65.76

Government
Consumption

Private Consumption

3.48

Services

Total Intermediate Use

Electricity and
Water

1.10

Construction

1.53

Manufacturing
Transport
ments

Manufacturing

56.77

Agriculture

Agriculture

2.88

Unit: Billion INR-75.17 17.02

33.70 -41.24 156.93

Energy Balance Table in 2005 (Base Year)

Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar

Passenger Transport

0.00

234.00

13.00

0.00

0.00

1.00

248.00Freight Transport

0.00

121.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

121.00Residential

0.00

174.00

0.03

0.31

2.00

167.00343.34

Commercial

0.00

35.00

0.03

0.00

0.00

42.00

77.03

Industry579.00145.00124.00

0.00

15.00

194.001057.00

Total

579.00709.00137.06

0.31

17.00

404.001846.37

Unit: Ktoe

30

Biomass Electricity

Total

Input-Output table in 2035 BAU (Target Year)

6.74

44.42

8.82

1203.99 168.85

40.44

172.40 1594.50 828.24

30.60

220.241385.49 -411.91 3647.16-122.18

Construction
Electricity
and
Water
Services
Total Input

Total Output-937.11 114.95

0.18

3.93

0.19

0.31

8.32

12.92

42.72

4.79

61.76

0.96

80.47

17.55

5.29

41.97

146.23

4.44

25.85

440.47

63.41

1.37

83.20

11.59

67.51

26.63

190.30

29.90

5.98

341.81

24.73

32.01

8.74

746.99

98.20

48.71

345.73 1248.37 1521.30 436.00

30.17

38.68

225.95 -821.21 2679.27

0.00-90.99 589.41-355.63 269.09

39.54 2706.48 324.83 194.75 654.51 3920.11

62.82
Value Add -Wage
Value
Add
- 15.70
CapitalTax & Subsidy

Total

Transport Equipments

Services

Manufacturing

Import3.50

ExportPrivate Investment

727.78 269.62

Government
Investment

Government
Consumption

59.45

Private Consumption

32.49

Total Intermediate Use

28.47

Electricity andWater

587.91

Construction

Agriculture

Manufacturing

19.47

Agriculture

Unit: Billion INR-3.11

532.66 210.73

78.68 1621.16

133.17

52.68

19.67

405.29274.851.16-24.00-1.69

114.95 3647.16 589.41 269.09 2679.27

Energy Balance Table in 2035 BAU (Target Year)

Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar

Passenger Transport

0.00

56.00

73.00

0.00

12.00

1484.00

1625.00

Freight Transport

0.00

935.000.00

0.00

219.000.00

1154.00

Residential

0.00

237.00250.001.60

1.60

454.00944.20Commercial

0.00

0.00

805.00

25.00

0.00

832.001662.00

Industry

947.001332.00

8341.00

0.00

379.001833.00

12832.00

Total

947.002560.00

9469.00

26.60

611.604603.00

18217.20

Unit: Ktoe

Biomass Electricity

Total

31

Ahmedabad Low Carbon Society Vision 2035
October 2009
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
P. R . Shukla
Prem Pangotra
Amir Bashir Bazaz
Prasoon Agarwal
Nidhi Agarwal

Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kei Gomi

Mizuho Information & Research Institute
Tomoki Ehara
Kazuya Fujiwara

National Institute for Environmental Studies
Mikiko Kainuma
Junichi Fujino