Table of Contents
1
2
3

4
5

6
7

Social Economic Development of Jilin City ........................................................................ 1
Energy Consumption and Supply of Jilin City .................................................................... 3
Model Method ......................................................................................................................... 5
3.1
Methodology Framework ........................................................................................... 5
3.2
Models .......................................................................................................................... 6
Definitions of Scenario ......................................................................................................... 11
Scenario Parameter ............................................................................................................. 11
5.1
Main Model Parameters .......................................................................................... 11
5.2
Main Industry Trades Development ....................................................................... 22
5.2.1
Chemical Industry ......................................................................................... 22
5.2.2
Cement Industry ........................................................................................... 24
5.2.3
Steel Making Industry................................................................................... 25
5.2.4
Power Generation......................................................................................... 26
5.2.5
Other Industrial Sector ................................................................................. 27
Energy and Emission Scenario .......................................................................................... 28
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 32

1 Social Economic Development of Jilin City
In 2007, the population is 4.33 million in the city, 4.8% more than that in 1990,
with no significant increase basically. Among them, the urban population is 1.82
million, accounting for 42%, while non-agricultural population is 2.11 million,
accounting for 49%, with a 5% increase compared to 1990. There are 1.44 million
households, 32% more than that in 1990, and the average number of persons perhousehold is 3.01 (see Table 1).
Table 1: Population of Jilin City

Year

Household(10,000 Households)

Capita per household(capita)Urban
district

Whole city

Urban
district

Whole city

37

6

164

28

4.48

4.5

64

16

320

79

4.99

5.03

73

18

358

89

4.94

4.83

85

23

386

102

4.57

4.6

95

29

395

114

4.14

3.87

109

36

413

127

3.8

3.55

116

39

425

138

3.66

3.51

145

53

432

179

3.46

3.38

137

58

429

180

3.12

3.09

141

59

430

180

3.05

3.03

144

61

433

182

3.01

2.98

Whole city
1949
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007

Population(10,000 capita)

Urban
district

Jilin has experienced a rapid economic development during the past 20 years, with
the increase rate of 10.6% from 1990 to 2007 and 11.6% from 2000 to 2007. In recent
three years, the increase rates of GDP in Jilin are 16.5%, 17.3% and 14.3%. In 2007,
the GDP of the city is 130.02 billion (see Figure 1 and Figure 2), and ratio of threeindustry structures is 13.5: 49.3: 37.2, the change of which can be seen from Figure 3.

1

GDP in Jilin City
800
700

Trillian Yuan

600
500
400

300
200
100
0
2006

2007

2 0 062 0 07

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

Figure 1: The Development of Jilin

GDP Growth Rate, %20.00%
15.00%
10.00%

5.00%
0.00%
2 0 052 0 042 0 032 0 022 0 01

20 00

19 99

19 98

19 97

19 96

19 95

19 94

19 93

19 92

19 91

-5.00%

Figure 2: The Increase Rate of GDP

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

第三产业
第二产业

第一产业

1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

%

GDP Mix in Jilin City

Figure 3: The Change of GDP Structure22 Energy Consumption and Supply of Jilin City
In 2007, the total installed capacity of public power plants in Jilin City was up to
4.6 million kW, accounting for 1/3 of total installed capacity in Jilin province. Amongthem, hydropower was 3.023 million kW, accounting for 34%, while thermal power
was 1.577 million kW, accounting for 66%, with an annual power generation of 12.95
billion kW. There are one primary substation of 500 kV, 11 public primary substationof 220 kV, and 30 public secondary substation of 66 kV in the power network in Jilin.
Jilin has built the largest fuel alcohol plant in Asia in 2002, with a productivity of 5
million ton, which was newly enlarged, and now it can process and transform 150 ton
of maize. In addition, the output of coal in Jilin was 3.35 million ton in 2007, thenatural gas supply was 34.82 million m3, and the output of coke, gasoline, diesel oil
and fuel oil were 0.176, 1.0797, 2.67 and 0.33 million ton respectively. In 2007, thesales income of energy industry of Jilin was 26.85 billion Yuan, and the profits tax
was 1.59 billion Yuan, accounting for 22.4% and 15.7% of sales income and profits
tax of over scale industry. Thus, the energy industry now becomes the second pillar
industry of Jilin, after the chemical industry.
The energy production of Jilin in the past years can be seen from Figure 4. During
2000 and 2007, the annual increase rates of energy production are 8% for raw coal,-1% for coke, 5% for power generation, 4% for gasoline, 15% for diesel oil and -13%
for fuel oil, which means the production of raw coal, power generation, gasoline anddiesel oil increase while the production of coke and fuel oil decrease.

吉林市历年能源生产情况（万tce)
600

原煤（万tce）
焦炭（万tce）
发电量（万tce）
汽油（万tce）
柴油（万tce）
燃料油（万tce）

500
400
300
200

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

0

1990

100

Figure 4: Energy Production in Jilin City

In 2007, the total primary energy consumption is 1.563 million ton standard coal, in
which the consumption of raw coal, raw oil, natural gas and hydropower are 8.331
million tce (accounting for 59.2%), 5.404 million tce (accounting for 38.4%), 0.028
million tce (accounting for 0.2%) and 0.308 million tce (accounting for 2.2%) (see3

Figure 5). In 2007, the final energy consumption of Jilin is 12.9236 million tce, inwhich the consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, electricity and thermal are 3.392
million tce, 5.2646 million tce, 0.0279 million tce, 1.5478 million tce and 2.5748
million tce (see Figure 6). The energy consumption of the first industry, second
industry, third industry and households are 0.322 million tce, 9.787 million tce, 1.564
million tce and 1.25 million tce. The energy consumption of agriculture, industry,architecture, transportation, service and residents are 0.322 million tce (accounting for2%), 9.66 million tce (accounting for 75%), 0.127 million tce (accounting for 1%),0.383 million tce (accounting for 3%), 0.374 million tce (accounting for 3%), 1.25
million tce (accounting for 10%).

10000tce

Primary energy use
1000.0
900.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
Coal

Coke

Oil

N.Gas

Electricity

Other

Figure 5: Primary Energy Use of Jilin City

Final Energy Use, 2007
600.0

10000tce

500.0

400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0

0.0
Coal

Coke

Oil

N.Gas

Heat

Electricity Other

Figure 6: Final Energy Use of Jilin City

Jilin is an old industrial base mainly depending on heavy industry, with the energy
4industry as the pillar industry, while the power industry and coal mining industry aremain energy industries. By the end of 2007, the total installed capacity is 4.6 million
kWh, accounting for 10% of the Northeast Power Network, and 45% for Jilin
province. Among them, the thermal power and hydropower are of 2.90 and 1.7
million kWh, while the total amount of power generation of Jilin City is 12.9 billion
kWh and the total power consumption is 12.5 billion kWh. There are 10 substations of
220 V, with a total capacity of 193 kV, and 110 substations (transformer towers) of
66kV, with a total capacity of 1.5 million kV. The state of energy supply andconsumption by different sectors can be seen in Table 2.

Table 2: The State of Power Generation and Consumption by Sector
AnnualIncrease
Rate％

Unit

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

GW

4.22214.26614.42814.56914.6001

2%

GWh8777.4111928.94

13807.35

12735.65

12949.7

10%GWh9773.3610591.25

10315.41

10993.89

12594.44

7%

IndustryGWh8054.95

8834.128501.969025.3610482.05

7%

Agriculture

GWh

54.99

48.44

118.96137.76145.2327%

Households

GWh1017.95

1034.021042.221095.851188.21

4%

OthersGWh645.47674.67652.27734.92778.95

5%

Total capacity of
power
equipment
Annualgenerated
power
Annualelectricity
consumption

Note: The total capacity of power equipment includes all of power plants larger than 6000 kW and3 small hydropower stations (Long Yun, Long Cheng and Song Bai).

The amount of total coal consumption is 14.736 million ton, 86% of which areconsumed by electricity, chemical, building materials and metallurgy industry. The
amount of self producing coal is 3.35 million ton (2.01 million ton coal are produced
by Shu Lan Mining Group and 1.34 million ton coal are local production), accountingfor 22.7% of total demand, and the rest depends on coal from other provinces.

3 Model Method
3.1 Methodology Framework
In order to present energy and emission scenarios for Jilin province, a modelling5

framework for scenario analysis is adopted. The IPAC-AIM/Technology model will
be used for the analysis. The IPAC-AIM/technology model has been used for thenational energy and emission scenario analysis and several regional scenario analyses
including Beijing, Guang Dong, and Hong Kong. This study will adopt a similar
framework as previous studies.
The time span of this study is 2005 to 2030 to relate to the local energy planning
period and issues with the climate change plan. 2005 will be the base year.
CO2 is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) covered.

3.2 Models
The IPAC-AIM/Technology model is a single-region model for China, developed
based on the AIM/end-use model (AIM Project Team 1996; Hu, Jiang, and Liu, 1996;
Hu and Jiang 2001; Jiang and others 1998). This model includes three modules(energy-service demand projection, energy-efficiency estimation, and technology
selection) (see Figure 7). Demand is divided among the industrial, agricultural,
service, residential, and transportation sectors, which are further divided into
subsectors (see Table 3). On both the demand and supply sides, more than 400
technologies are considered, including existing as well as technologies that may be
used in the future (see Table 4). The model searches for the least-cost technology mix
to meet the given energy-service demand. The most up-to-date information on thesetechnologies was collected from a large number of published sources, as well as byconsulting with experts directly. Key factors could be analyzed by the model andlinkage with policies is given in Table 5. The policy options could be simulated by themodel to see the effects.

6Energy Technology

Energy Service- Oil- Coal- Gas- Solar- (Electricity)- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile- Heating- Lighting- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation

Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions

Technology
Selection

Service Demands

EnergyEnergy Database for China

Technology Database for China- Energy type
- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario for China- Population growth- Economic growth- Industrial structure- Employees- Lifestyle

Figure 7: Structure of IPAC-AIM/technology Model (Jiang et al, 1998)
Table 3: Classification of Energy End-Use Sectors and Subsectors
SectorAgriculture

Subsectors
Irrigation, farming works, agricultural-products processing, fishery,
animal husbandry

Industry

Iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, chemicals,
petrochemicals, paper-making, textiles

Household

Urban and rural: Space heating, cooling, lighting, cooking and hot water,household electric appliance

ServiceSpace heating, cooling, lighting, cooking and hot water, electric
appliance

Transportation

Passenger and freight: Railway, highway, waterway, airway
Freight: Railway, highway, waterway, airway

7

Table 4: Selected Technologies Considered in the IPAC-AIM/Technology ModelClassification

Technologies
Coke ovens; sintering machines; blast, open hearth, basic oxygen, and AC and DC
electric arc furnaces; ingot-casting machines; continuous-casting machines;

Iron and Steelcontinuous-casting machines with rolling machines; steel-rolling machines;
continuous steel-rolling machines; dry and wet coke-quenching equipment; electric
power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace; coke-oven gas,
open- hearth gas, and basic oxygen-furnace gas recovery; cogeneration equipment
Aluminum production with sintering process, aluminum production with combination
process, aluminum with bayer, electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell,

Nonferrous

electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash

Metalfurnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, blast furnaces, reverberator
furnaces, lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, lead smelting with closed blast
furnace, zinc smelting with wet method, zinc smelting with vertical pot method
Cement: Mechanized-shaft, ordinary-shaft, wet-process, lepol kiln, ling-dry, rotarywith pro-heater, dry-process rotary with precalciner, Hoffman, and tunnel kilns;

Building

self-owned electric-power generators; electric power generators with residue heat;

Materials

bricks and tiles
Lime: Ordinary-shaft kilns, mechanized-shaft kilns
Glass: Floating, vertical, and Colburn processes; smelters
Synthetic ammonia: Converters, gasification furnaces, gas-making furnaces,
synthetic columns; shifting of sulfur-removing equipment
Caustic soda production: Electronic cells with graphite process, two-stage effects
evaporators, multistage effects evaporators, rectification equipment, ion-membrane

ChemicalmethodIndustry

Calcium carbine production: Limestone calciners, closed carbine furnaces, open
carbine furnaces, residue heat– recovery equipment
Soda ash: Ammonia and saltwater preparation, limestone calcining, distillation
columns, filters
Fertilizer: Equipment for production of organic products, residue heat utilization
Atmospheric and vacuum distillation, rectification, catalyzing and cracking, cracking

Petrochemicalwith hydrogen adding, delayed-coking, and light-carbon cracking facilities;

Industry

sequential separators; naphtha, diesel, and de-propane crackers; de-ethane
separators; crackers; facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene
Cookers; distillation, washing, and bleaching facilities; evaporators, crushers;

Paper-making

water-seperator, finishing, residue heat utilization, and black-liquor recovery
facilities, co-generators; and back-pressure electric power and condensing electric
power generators

8

Table 4: Selected Technologies Considered in the IPAC-AIM/Technology Model (Continued 1)

Classification

Technologies
Cotton-weaving process, chemical fiber process, wool-weaving and textile process,Textilesilk process, printing and dyeing process, garment-making, air conditioners, lighting,space heating
Ingot process: Cupolas, electric arc furnaces, fansForging process: Coal-fired, gas-fired, and oil-fired preheaters; steam- andMachineryelectric-hydraulic hammers; pressing machines
Heat-processing: coal-fired, oil-fired, gas-fired, and electric heat–processing
furnaces
Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high-speed cutting

Irrigation

Diesel engines, electric induct motors

Farming Works

Tractors, other agricultural machines

Agricultural
Products

Diesel engines, electric induct motors, processing machines, coal-fired facilities

Process
Fishery
AnimalHusbandry
Space heating in
Resident
Cooling in
Resident
Lighting in
Resident
Cooking and
Hot Water in
Resident
HouseholdDiesel engines, electric induct motors
Diesel engines, electric induct motors, other machines
Heat-supplying boilers in thermal power plants, district-heating plant boilers,dispersed boilers, small coal-fired stoves, electric heaters, brick beds linked withstoves (Chinese Kang), energy-saving building
Air conditioners, high-efficiency air conditioners, electric fans

Incandescent, fluorescent, and kerosene lamps

Gas burners; bulk coal-fired, briquette-fired, methane-fired, cow dung–fired,kerosene, and firewood-fired stoves; electric cookers
Televisions, washing machines, refrigerators, other appliances

Electrical
Appliances
Other Electric

Photocopiers, computers, elevator, other appliances

Equipment
Space Heatingin Service
SectorHeat-supplying boilers in thermal power plants, boilers in district heating plants,
dispersed boilers, electric heaters

Cooling

Central air conditioning, air conditioners, electric fans

Lighting

Incandescent, fluorescent lamps

Cooking and
Hot Water

Gas ranges, electric cookers, hot-water pipelines, coal-fired stoves9

Table 4: Selected Technologies Considered in the IPAC-AIM/Technology Model (Continued 2)

Classification

Technologies
Railways: Steam, internal combustion engine, and electric locomotives

Passenger and

Highways: Public diesel, public gasoline, and private vehicles; large diesel freight

Freight

trucks, large gasoline vehicles, small freight trucks

Transport

Waterways: Ocean-going, coastal, and inland ships
Aviation: Freight and passenger planes

CommonElectric motors; frequency-adjustable electric motors; coal-fired, high-efficiency

Technologies

coal-fired, natural gas–fired, and oil-fired boilers
Low-parameter coal-fired, high-pressure critical coal-fired, super-critical coal-fired,Powernatural gas–fired, oil-fired, and nuclear generators; PFBC, Integrated gasification

Generation

combined cycle, Natural gas combined cycle; wind turbines; hydropower; solar
power generation; biomass and landfill power generation

Source: Jiang et al, 1998
Table 5: Factors Influenced by Key Driving Forces
Driving
Force

Policies toSectorIndustry

Factors

Promote the Change

Value-added change by

Various policies relative to value

subsectors within the sector

added, such as price policy, national(as service demand of someplan for key industry, promotion ofsubsectors, including

well-functioning markets,

machinery, other chemical,

market-oriented policies, national

other mining, and otherdevelopment policies

industry, could be changed
based on economic mix
change)Products structure change

Social-effici

within one sector (as serviceency

demand in most industrial

Changesectors)
Residential
andcommercial

Transport

Change in energy activity

Public education, price policies

within the sector (use ofheating, cooling, more
efficient electric appliances)
Change of transport mode

Transport development policies,(more public transport,

public education

nonmobilty(walking andbicycle use)
traffic volume (as result of
decline in use of private cars)

Technology
Progress

All sectors

Efficiency progress for

Promotion of technology R&D,

technology (improvement inmarket- oriented policies,

10

unit energy use); changes ininternational collaboration,technology mix (moreenvironmental regulation,

advanced technologies);

energy-industry policies, import andchanges in fuel mix (moreexport policies, tax system

renewable energy andnuclear)

Source: Jiang et al, 2006

4 Definitions of Scenario-

Baseline scenario: the baseline is sustainable development under the current
economic development pattern. Do not take any new policy into account besides
policies issued already.

-Policy scenario: the scenario is designed to analyze the effect of energy saving,
renewable energy promotion and pollution reduction under great efforts (including
policy, investment and energy expenditure). The main factors are economic
structure optimization, the decrease of the proportion of added value of highly
energy- consuming industries in heavy industry, and the promulgation of energy
saving technology. Industry: by 2020, the main highly energy- consuming
industries will catch up or precede the advanced country level, and the industry
will generally realize effective and cleaner production. Architecture: newbuildings will reach the energy saving standard, and the consumption of the public
is mainly low energy- consuming commodities (including purchasing, electric
equipment using, renewable energy using and life style). The renewable energy
will be made the best use of, including wind power, solar thermal utilization,
photovoltaic cell, biomass energy power generation and liquefaction, small scalehydropower, garbage power. Besides, the carbon mitigation technology should betaking into account since Jilin is one of the richest provinces in China.
Low carbon scenario: the scenario takes all the polices related to further green
house gas reduction into account, to analysis the potential of low carbon emission
in the pilot project, especially the potential of CCS.

-

5 Scenario Parameter
5.1 Main Model Parameters
The research mainly uses the model to process quantitative analysis, in order tobetter understand the political implication. The main parameters can be seen in Table
11

6.
The scenario of population growth comes from the population planning mentioned
above and other related research. Since the population growth is more rapid than thatin the planning, some adjustment is made to the population scenario based on theplanning (see Table 6). The population policy is not involved in the energy
development and low carbon scenario policy, thus the analysis does not coverdifferent population scenario.

Table 6: Population Growth
Total, million
Urban
Rural
Urbanization Rate, %City Household, million
Rural Household, million
Urban HH Member
Rural HH Member

2005

2010

2020

2030

4.304
2.1
2.2
48.8%
0.72
0.69
2.9
3.2

4.6
2.76
1.84
60%
0.99
0.59
2.8
3.1

4.82
3.22941.5906
67%
1.20
0.53
2.7
3.0

5.05
3.737
1.313
74%
1.44
0.45
2.6
2.9

The data of GDP growth are based on the development planning and related
research see Table 7.
Table 7: Economic Growth Parameter
2005-20102020-2030

15%

10%

7%

2005

2010

2020

2030

80.5

162

420

826

13.3
46.6
40.1

8
54
38

6
53
41

5
45
50

GDP Growth Rate

GDP, Billion Yuan

2010-2020

Mix, %
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary

Table 8: The Main Product Output, Baseline Scenario
2000
Steel
Concrete
Tile
Ethylene
VitriolFuel ethanol
Automobile
Paper
Coal

3

10 ton103 ton
0.1 billion
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton

2005

2010

2020

2030

1.2

1,280

1,500

2,500

3,000

1,220

2,910

9,000

12,00015,000

2

5

9

10

430

510

1,800

2,300

2,800

84

139

180

200

200

0

350

600

800

800

40

62.7

400

800

1,000

0

0

340

800

1,000

0

2908.3
12

4300

6000

6000

Table 9: The Main Product Output, Policy Scenario
Steel and Iron
Concrete
Tile
Ethylene
VitriolFuel Ethanol
Automobile
Paper
Coal

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

0

1280

1500

2500

3000

1220

2910

9000

10000

10000

0

2

5

9

8

430

510

1800

2300

2800

80

140

180

200

200

0

350

600

800

1600

40

60

400

800

1000

0

0

340

800

1000

0

2910

4300

4300

4000

3

10 ton103 ton
0.1 billion
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 ton
103 tonIndexes related to energy demand of different sectors can be seen in Table 10.
Table 10: Urban Resident Development Index
Population
HH
Area, m2

Member per HH

2005

2010

2020

2030

2.10
724259342.9

2.7698571441
2.8

3.23
1196074
43
2.7

4.45
1437308
44
3.1

Index of Service, 2005=1
Cooking
Electric Cooking
Hot WaterSpace Heating
Air Conditioner
Fan
Lighting: C
Lighting: F
Refrigerator
Color TV
Washing Machine
Other Electric Appliance

1
1
1
1
1
1

1.36
1.34
1.51
1.44
1.81
1.41

1.65
1.91
2.42
1.84
2.84
1.71

1.98
2.66
3.53
2.29
5.75
2.05

1
1
1
1
1
1

1.42
2.55
1.74
1.91
1.91
1.36

1.80
3.34
2.58
2.76
3.21
1.65

2.08
4.47
3.32
3.72
5.32
1.98

13

Table 11: Rural Resident Development Index
Population

million

HH
Area
Member per HH

2

m /HH

2005

2010

2020

2030

2.20

1.84

1.59

1.31

68864099
3.2593548110
3.1530200120
3.0452759
130
2.9

0.90
1.51
1.16
0.91
2.87
0.95
0.64
1.32
2.49
0.49
1.66
1.71

0.82
1.93
1.13
0.84
4.65
0.94
0.55
1.45
2.55
1.42
2.55
1.86

Index of Service, 2005=1
Kitchen WorkElectric Power for Kitchen Work
Hot Water
Heating
Air-conditioning
Electric FanLighting: Incandesce Lamp
Lighting: Fluorescent Lamp
Refrigerator
Television
Washing Machine
Others

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

14

0.93
0.85
0.93
0.94
1.39
0.94
0.79
1.09
1.43
1.16
1.12
1.34

Table 12: Building and Transportation Index
Suggested
2005

Energy- saving

2020

2030

time

Baseline
scenario

policyscenario

3%

30%

50%

40%

70%

Energy- saving
standard; provide
subsidy to energysaving buildings

Easy

15%

70%

100%

85%

100%

Easy. New
technology has
already beendeveloped withlittle cost
increase.

12%

50%

95%

75%

100%

Energy- saving
standard, andcontinuously raise the
5th energy efficiency
standard, e.g.
Top-Runner policy
manner used in
Japan
The same as above

100%

The same as above

Air-conditioning
Energy- saving

policyPolicypolicyscenario

Refrigerator

Energy- saving

implement

Baseline
scenario
Building

Energy- saving

Complexity of

16%

100%

Washing Machine15

The same asabove
The same as
above

Now. Besides,
the most
advancedenergy- savingbuilding shouldbeencouraged.
Now. Besides,
the minimum
energyefficiency
standard
should beraised as soon
as possible.
The same asabove
The same asaboveTable 12: Building and Transportation Index (continued 1)

2005

2020

2030

PolicyComplexity of

Suggested

policyimplement
time

10%

Baseline
scenario

policyscenario

Baseline
scenario

policyscenario

45%

85%

65%

95%

Energy- saving standard

The same as above

The same
as above

30%

10%

50%

Set as one of the criteria of

MediumNowenergy-saving building,

Relatively easyNowsymbolic subsidy

Heat pipe technology

Energy-Computer,savinglift,

Apparatus

duplicator

Solar Water

Turn to5% of total

Heaternew water

space

heateris mature, andsubstitutes morethan 85% gas water
heaterIndoorReduce110

ReduceReduceReducePublic education;

Energy Uses

kgce each

190 kgce

120 kgce

210 kgce

Less air conditioning, morehousehold

each

each

each

electrical fan;householdhouseholdhousehold

Turn off the standby power;
Multi level lighting
30 L- shower
Energy- saving domestic
appliance
Control the indoor temperatureand dress appropriately

16

Easy

Now

Table 12: Building and Transportation Index (continued 2)

Suggested
Complexity
2005

Rural Resident

LPG/DME

14%

2020

2030

PolicyBaseline

policyBaseline

policyscenario

scenario

scenario

scenario

20%

40%

35%

80%

Increase the supply of

popularizati

LPG and DME to theon raterural area

popularizatio

0

6%

20%

6%

45%

New countryside
construction

n rate ofof

implement

policy

time

Easy

Now

Relatively hard,

Now

and

large-scale

government

biomass

support isgasificationneededfor gassupplyEasy

Now

Improve the fuelRelatively easy,Nowconsumption

economy standard (lesspromulgate the

Vehiclethan 5 L per 100 km)

roadmap

Now

Easy

2008

popularizati

0

2%

10%

8%

80%

Popularize the solar

on rate ofwater heater of low cost,

solar

subsidy (combined withheating

new countryside
construction)

Low Energy-

16%

55%

85%

60%

92%

Public education (Buyenergy- saving vehicle)

17

Provide subsidy tocompact vehicle with low

Relatively easy

2008

Public transport priority

Relatively easy,Nowresolutely (financial

depend on social

input, municipal

investment andconstruction, publicfinancial input

energy consumption
Make the public facilities
more preferential tocompact vehicle with low
energy consumption
Public

20%

35%

60%

40%

65%

Transportationconsensus, bus)
Rail transit construction(increase the input
greatly, build perfect railtransit system in every
city with population large
than 2 million)
Non-motorized

45%

30%

45%

32%

50%

VehicleTurn around the present

Relatively hard,

Make effort fromtransportation policy

the

now

designed for vehicles, andconsciousness

set a transportation systemshould be

more preferential to traveltransformed

on foot and by bicycle.
Transportation

9%

13%

Demand Reduction

Tele-conference, school bus,
productions localization

18

Table 13: Technology Index
Technology

Advanced CokeOven

New generation
Coke OvenDry Quenching

Sintering Furnaceof International

Efficiency

Share in 2030
BaU

Policy11,900 Mcal/ ton coke,with gas production of
1,340 Mcal
10,300 Mcal/ ton coke,with gas production of
1,420Mcal
2.4 Mcal/ ton J Recovery

58%

50%

17%

47%

80%

100%

390 Mcal/ ton sinter lump,saving 42% of energy

45%

85%

3750 Mcal/ ton hot metal,saving 21% of energy

40%

65%

Heat and electricity
recovery 0.7 Mcal/ ton hot
metal
Saving 86% of energy

44%

70%

90%

98%

170 Mcal/ ton molten
steel, saving 23% ofenergy34%

30%

218 Mcal/ tonmolten steel,recovering 286Mcal/ tonmolten steel

37%

70%

Saving 44% of energy

70%

95%

102 kgce/ton clinker

75%

100%

Advanced Level
Blast Furnace ofInternational
Advanced Level
Blast Gas
Recovery /TRT

Continuous
Casting andRolling
Large-scale
Converter (Oxygen
Enrichment,
Negative Pressure)
Advanced
Converter (Oxygen
Enrichment,
Negative Pressure,
Gas Recovery)
Hot Transportationand Hot Charging
New Dry Cement +Waste Heat
Recovery

19

Note

Fully
localization

Localization,with promisingprospect ofmarketpotential
Needed to belocalization

Table13: Technology Index (continued 1)
Technology

Advanced Copper

Efficiency

Share in 2030
BaU

Policy0.5tce/ton

75%

100%

Saving 8% of energy

85%

100%

0.379 tce/ ton, saving 21%
of energy

80%

100%

8,500 Mcal/ ton, with themost advanced level of
6,926 Mcal/ ton
3,744 Mcal/ ton, saving
34% of energy
6,517 Mcal/ ton, saving
38% of energy

70%

96%

80%

98%

66%

95%

80%

100%

Saving 50% of the energy

20%

30%

Saving 65% of the energy
Saving 75% of the energy
Saving 65% of the energy

16%
4%
85%

25%
15%
100%

Saving 30% of the energy

65%

20%

Saving 50% of the energy

15%

60%

Saving 75% of the energy

0%

20%

Saving 80% of the energy

80%

95%

Saving 30% of the energy

80%

100%

Note

Melting Furnace
Alumina Energy
Saving Technique
New Lead and Zinc
Smelting
Technique(SKS)
Large Scale
Synthetic Ammonia

Ionic Membrane
Caustic Soda
Ethylene Raw
Material and HighEfficiency Heat
Match
Rapid
Displacement
Heating (RDH),
Continuous
Cooking
Energy-saving
Building

Energy-efficient
Refrigerator
AC Frequency
Conversion Air
Conditioner
DC Inverter Air
Conditioner
Super Air
Conditioning
Compact
Energy-saving
Lamp
Energy-saving
Washing Machine

20

COP>5.5

Table 13: Technology Index (continued 2)
Technology

Energy-saving

Efficiency

Share in 2030
BaU

Policy

65%

95%

9%
each family
can reduce
120 kgceenergyconsumption

15%
each family
can reduce
210 kgceenergyconsumption

5.4 liter/ hundred kilometer

56%

45%

4.3 liter/ hundred kilometer

20%

35%

Less than 3 liter/ hundred
kilometer
Energy consumption perkilometer is 1/6 of that ofcars
Energy consumption perkilometer is 1/22 of that of
cars

0%

10%

Saving 40% of the energy

Electrical
Solar Heater
Indoor Energy
Consumption

LPG/ gas Stove
Energy-saving

The efficiency is 51%
The efficiency is 58%

LPG/ gas Stove
Low Energy
Consumption
VehicleHybrid Power
VehicleUltra-high Fuel
Economu Vehicle
Bus

Metro

Electric Bicycle

Supercritical/ Ultra

Electricity consumption
per kilometer is 1.2 kWh
The efficiency is 42%

Accounting
for 30% of
the vehicle
out-driving
in big cities

35%

Supercritical Power
Generation
IGCC/ PolyProduction

The efficiency is 45%, andwill be 54% in 2030

21

3%

Note

5.2 Main Industry Trades Development
5.2.1 Chemical Industry
Ammonia

The competitive technologies chosen in 2030 are mainly the large-scale production
technologies. From 2010, natural gas based large-scale ammonia, coal-basedlarge-scale ammonia and heavy oil-based large-scale ammonia will become the threemain ammonia production techniques. The disadvantages of mid- and small-scaleammonia will become more and more obvious. It is estimated that in 2020, this sector
will reach the current international advanced level, with the comprehensive energy
consumption reaching 1100kgce/t, 30% lower than the current energy consumption
level. In 2030, this sector will catch up with the efficiency of developed countries andreach the international advanced level at that time. The comprehensive energy
consumption will reach 1000kgce/t, another 10% lower than 2020.
Caustic soda and sodium carbonate

In 2005, the share of production of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was only
36.7%; however, in Japan and America, their caustic soda is mostly produced byion-exchange membrane. China now has grasped the design and production capacityof large-scale ion-exchange membrane equipment; the current production line
technology and equipment has also basically reached the international advanced level.
The future task is to further increase the share of large-scale ion-exchange membrane
caustic soda. In 2020, China will mainly build ion-exchange membrane caustic soda
projects larger than 200,000 tons per year. The share of ion-exchange membrane
caustic soda should reach 50% in 2020 and 65% in 2030.
Besides, through improving design and equipment production capacity anddeveloping large-scale natural cycle high current density cell 1 as well as
ion-exchange membrane - oxygen cathode electrolysis technolgy 2 , the energy
consumption of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda could be further decreased. It isestimated that in 2020, the comprehensive energy consumption of ion-exchange
membrane caustic soda can reach 1010 kgce/t, 10% lower than the current value; in2030, it can reach 980 kgce/t. Comprehensive energy consumption of ammonia alkali
and soda can reach respectively 410kgce/t and 270kgce/t in 2020; and 380kgce/t and
250kgce/t in 2030.
Caustic soda sector will mainly develop ion-exchange membrane production
techniques. The share of caustic soda produced by ion-exchange membrane will reach1

This technology can save electricity 20-30kWh/t alkali.

2This technology can save electricity 400kWh/t alkali.
22to 55% in 2020 and 73% in 2030. Meanwhile, the average scale of ion-exchange
membrane production line will be increased, from 200,000 t/a in 2020 to 300,000 t/a
in 2030, 50% larger than the average scale in BaU.
Ethylene

The raw materials to produce ethylene will be stabilized and lightened. The
development of ethylene sector in China should combine the oil and the chemical
sector. Through the optimization of raw materials from the refinery plant and theproper import of light raw materials, the supply of raw materials to produce ethylene
will be stabilized and lightened. It is needed to first guarantee the oil supply for
petroleum and chemical sector. Along with the rapid development of Chinese
economy, the domestic crude oil supply may not be able to meet the amount ofdomestic demand. The first solution is to better utilize the domestic and imported oil
resources, and further optimize the raw materials for ethylene pyrolysis to ensure thequality and quantity of raw materials for ethylene production; the second solution is tolimit the burning of oil and decrease the export of domestic crude oil. From themodel’s quantitative analysis results, share of naphtha in the raw materials of ethylene
production will reach 70% in 2030. Currently, the share of production by large-scale
ethylene production equipments is 66.7%. In the future, through building newlarge-scale equipments and further phasing out small and medium equipments, theshare of large equipments in 2020 will reach 75% in 2020 and 80% in 2030. Throughall the measures mentioned above, it is estimated that the comprehensive energy
consumption of ethylene production will reach 520kgoe/t in 2020; the technology
level will be comparable to the international advanced level at that time. In 2030, thecomprehensive energy consumption will reach 490kgoe/t, top of the world technology
level.

23

Table 14: Technology Parameters in Chemical Sector
Technology
Raw Material
Improvement in Ethylene
Production and theIndicator

Level of Technology Penetration

2020

2030

6,517Mcal/t,saving 38% ofenergy66%

95%

8,500Mcal/t, themost advanced
one can reach
6,926Mcal/t
360 kgce/t

70%

96%

50%

54%

230 kgce/t

36%

46%

950kgce/t

55%

75%

1,300kgce/t

90%

100%

Efficient Heat Exchange
Tower
Large-Scale Ammonia
Production Set

Sodium Carbonate –Advanced Ammonia
Alkali and Method Soda
Sodium Carbonate –Advanced Soda Method
Caustic Soda –Advanced Ion-Exchange
Membrane Method
Calcium Carbide –Advanced Closed
Furnace

5.2.2 Cement Industry
In the coming 30 years, the technology level of China’s cement sector will be
increased remarkably. The current new-built cement production line has become theglobal leader. From now on, the advanced dry preheating calcining kiln will become
the key technology in new built cement plant. This will make the type of advanced
kiln become the dominant technology in Chinese cement plants after 2020.
Besides, some other technologies which can be applied in new dry preheating
calcining kiln and promote the overall energy efficiency level are: (1) utilization of
combustible waste in cement sector: share of secondary fuel in dry preheating
calcining kiln will reach 8% in 2010, 15% in 2020 and 25% in 2030; (2) mid- andlow-temperature waste heat recovery technology: it will be generally applied in 2030;
the generation capacity per ton of clinker could reach 32~48 kWh; share of dry
preheating calcining kiln using mid- and low-temperature waste heat recovery
technology will reach 40% in 2010, 70% in 2020 and 100% in 2030.
Through all these comprehensive measures, the comprehensive energy
consumption in China’s new dry preheating calcining kiln will reach 96kgce/t, 12%
lower than the current level, and reaching the international advanced level at that time.
This energy efficiency level will be comparable to the level of the most advanced
24

production line in the world right now. In 2030, the comprehensive energy
consumption per ton of cement will reach 90kgce, another 6% lower than the 2020
level, reaching the top of the world.
Table 15:Main Energy Saving Technologies’ Parameters in Cement Sector

Technology
New Dry Preheating

Indicator

Level of Technology Penetration

2020

2030

104kgce/t clinker

90

100

34kWh/t clinker
Nearly doesn’t
consume energy

80
20

100
30

Calcining Production
Line
Waste Heat Recovery
Waste Residue Blended
with Clinker

5.2.3 Steel Making Industry
The iron and steel sector in China has already started to have obvious improvement
in energy efficiency level, under the requirements of domestic energy-saving andemission reduction actions. Considering the lifetime and retrofits period of technology,
the technologies in iron and steel sector will continue the current modernization,scaling up and high efficiency path. The newly built iron and steel plants will adopt
advanced energy saving technologies, making the energy efficiency of Chinese ironand steel sector topped the world around 2030.
In the low carbon scenarios, the deployment rate of advanced high efficiency
technologies will have an obvious increase. Till 2030, all the current existing
important energy saving technologies will be fully applied. From now on, throughbuilding new plants and reconstructing the existing plants, the main technologies
during the iron and steel production process will all become world leader. The maintechnologies and equipments, including advanced coke ovens (11,900 Mcal/ton coke,producing 1,340 Mcal gas), new generation of coke ovens (10,300 Mcal/ton coke,producing 1,420 Mcal gas), international advanced sintering oven (390 Mcal/ton
sintered block, saving 42% of energy), advanced blast furnace (3,750 Mcal/ton molteniron), big convertor(oxygen-rich, negative pressure) and advanced convertor(oxygen-rich, negative pressure, gas recovery), big advanced electric arc furnaces,
secondary refining, advanced technologies in rolling, hot metal charging and hot
delivery (saving 44% of energy), will be universal. Meanwhile, energy saving
technologies such as coke dry quenching and TRT will be popularized; and throughrecovery of coke oven gas, blast furnace gas and convertor gas, plants will use CCPP
to generate power and heat. In 2030, the overall energy efficiency and technology
level will get close to or reach the international advanced level. After 2030, the shareof electric arc furnaces will get a sharp increase, resulting in an obvious decrease intotal energy consumption per ton of steel produced (see Table 16).

25

Table 16: Technology Parameters in Iron and Steel Sector
Technology

Indicator

Level of Technology Penetration

2005

2020

2030

68%
34%
36%

80%
100%
70%
55%

100%
100%
90%
80%

67%

100%

100%

60%

80%

34%

75%

95%

16%

78%

95%

Saving 75% of energy

88%

95%

98%

Saving 47% of energy

37%

85%

95%

Saving 30% of energy

25%

70%

90%

New Blast Furnace
TRT
BFG Recovery
Big and Advanced

Output rate is 82%;

Coke Oven

producing coke ovengas of 760Mcal

Coke Oven Gas
Recovery
250 kg PCI into Blast

Replacing coke

Furnace
Coke Dry Quenching

Heat recovered fromcoke reaches 190Mcal

DirectCurrency/Alternating
currency arc Furnace
above 120t
Recover ofConvertor Gas
Continuous Casting

Negative energy
convertor steel making,-16 kgce/t steel

and Rolling
Hot metal Charging
and Hot Delivery
New Heating Furnace

5.2.4 Power Generation
Electric power generation techniques of SC and USC. In recent years, the SC and
USC power generations develop very fast. The localization process of SC sets hascompleted, and the localization rate of USC is more than 80% (Kejun Jiang, 2007).
Nowadays, 60% newly constructed SC and USC sets are in China. Till the end of
2007, there a more than a hundred of SC sets and more than ten USC sets in China(Kejun Jiang, 2008). Until now, the total investment has reach 3900yuan/kW (IPAC
electric database). According to the policies of NDRC, the basic requirements of
newly constructed coal-fired power plant are SC and USC (NDRC 2007). This
indicates the fact that the SC and USC techniques have been entering thecommercialization process.
26

IGCC/ Co-Generation technique. Recently, the development of IGCC sets hasentered the expansion process. The demonstration project of 300～400MW IGCC set(State Grid Yantai) funded in 1999, has been arranged. The first phase ofdemonstration 250MW IGCC (CHINA HUANENG GreenGen) estimates operation at2009, which adopts the advanced gasification technology based on pulverized coal:
CO2 separation, hydrogen production, and the separation of Molten Carbonate Fuel
Cell experimental system. The second phase of IGCC with 300～400MW estimates
operation at 2015, with the advanced gasification technology based on pulverized coal:
100MW CO2 separation, hydrogen production, and hydrogen power generation
demonstration system. About 3 to 5 IGCC with 300-400 MW are arranged by the
corporations of China Da Tang and China Power investment. According to thefeasibility analysis of several IGCC projects in China, we can find out theconstruction cost of IGCC sets, about 7000yuan/kW to 8000yuan/kW. We estimatethat the cost will reduce to 6800yuan/kW when the technology is mature.
Power generation by regenerative energy. 1) Solar PV Technology. Besides
applied for remote areas and special fields (communication, navigation, andtransportation), the demonstration project of electric generation using Solar PV on
housetop has been constructed. There are more than 10 enterprises (including
manufacturers and package factories), and the output capacity is more than 100MW. 2)
Wind Power generation: The industry develops very fast, and unit capacity has
increased from 600kW to 5000kW. Technology of 2000kW sets have matured, which
is widely applied for wind power generation in land. The 2000kW sets can be
manufactured in China, and the 1500kW sets have the exclusively self-retained
technology. Therefore the progress of local production reduces the cost, which is10%-20% lower than the import price. The electric generation cost is reduced to 6000
yuan/kW because of the large scale production.
Table 17: Technology Parameters of Electric Industry
Electric Generation
Technologies
SC and USC in All Coal-fired Power Plant
Proportion of Nuclear Power
Proportion of Regenerative Energy (Except for
the Hydro Power)

Proportion of Market %

2020
55
12
1.2

2030
52
20
10

5.2.5 Other Industrial Sector
For other industrial sectors, according to the energy consuming technologies, they
will mainly use the general energy saving technologies, such as electric machinery,lighting, boiler, kiln and etc. According to related materials (NDRC, 2004), thesettings of related parameters are shown in Table 18.
27

Table 18: Technological Parameters of Other Industrial Sectors
Share of Technology Penetration

2020

2030

Saving 30%-45% ofelectricity
Efficiency can reach
85%-90%

50%

80%

60%

85%

Saving 45% of electricity

70%

95%

Technology

Indicator

Efficient Energy Saving
variable Frequency Motor
Efficient Coal-fired Boiler
Efficient Industrial Lighting
Combined Heat and Power
Energy Saving from

Saving 45% of energy

Management Side-The unit consumption of high energy- consumption production shows the
downtrend

Based on the analysis on the technology potential of different industries, the unit
consumption of high energy-consumption product can be calculated from the model(see Table 19).
Table 19: Unit Consumption of High Energy-Consumption Product under Policy Scenario
Unit
2005
2020
2030
2050
Sectorkgce/t
760
650
564
525
Steel and Iron
kgce/tCement
132
101
86
81
kgce/tSynthetic
1,645
1,328
1,189
1,170
Ammonia
Ethylene
Soda
CopperAluminum
Paper Making
Thermal Power

kgce/tkgce/tkgce/tkWh/tkgce/tGce/kWh

1,092
340
1,273
15,000
1,047
350

796
310
1,063
12,870
840
305

713
290
931
12,170
761
290

705
280
920
12,000740271

6 Energy and Emission Scenario
Based on the parameter setting above, we use IPAC-AIM/ technology model
process the scenario analysis on the energy demand and CO2 emission of Jilin
City.
The primary result of the model can be seen from Table 20 to Table 25.

28

Table 20: Primary Energy Consumption, Baseline Scenario, 10,000 T Standard Coal
NatureCoal

CokePetroleum

Gas

Electricity

Total

2007

915.7

73.2

540.4

2.8

30.8

1,563.02010

1,327.8

131.8

864.7

8.9

58.6

2,391.8

2020

1,858.9

170.1

1,037.7

38.4

111.3

3,216.32030

2,323.6

192.2

1,141.4

88.4

189.2

3,934.8

Table 21: Final Energy Consumption, Baseline Scenario, 10,000 Ton Standard Coal
NaturalThermal

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

2007

257

90

526

3

257

155

1,289

2010

359

141

755

6

323

212

1,797

2020

538

183

992

20

472

387

2,592

2030

547

185

1,343

38

687

677

3,476

Table 22: Primary Energy Consumption, Policy Scenario, 10,000 Ton Standard Coal
NatureCoal

CokePetroleum

Gas

Electricity

Total

2007

915.7

73.2

540.4

2.8

30.8

1,563.02010

1,282.0

87.9

864.7

5.9

55.5

2,295.9

2020

1,564.0

96.7

1,037.7

14.1

105.4

2,817.92030

1,798.6

106.3

1,079.2

29.6

337.3

3,351.0

Table 23: Final Energy Consumption, Policy Scenario, 10,000 Ton Standard Coal
Coal

NaturalThermalCoke

Petroleum

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

259.1

90.2

527.1

2.8

257.3

154.8

1,291.3

343.2

136.2

721.7

6.5

305.8

202.7

1,716.1

2020

468.2

166.2

902.7

20.3

432.8

355.6

2,345.8

2030

432.7

161.2

1,095.4

38.3

602.9

552.3

2,882.8

2007
2010

29

Table 24: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, Baseline Scenario, 10,000 Ton Standard Coal
NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Agriculture

24.2

0.0

2.3

0.0

0.0

1.8

28.3

Industry

120.3

90.2

455.2

1.7

170.5

128.8

966.7

Service Industry

62.8

0.0

14.1

0.0

41.0

9.3

127.2

Transportation

0.0

0.0

49.8

0.0

0.0

0.3

50.1

Urban household

12.0

0.0

4.6

1.1

44.3

12.0

74.0

Rural household

39.8

0.0

1.1

0.0

1.5

2.6

45.0

Total

259.1

90.2

527.1

2.8

257.3

154.8

1,291.3

NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

2007

Total

2010

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Total

Agriculture

31.5

0.0

4.4

0.0

0.0

3.2

39.1

Industry

173.2

140.7

610.0

3.6

211.4

171.3

1,310.2

Service Industry

87.9

0.0

21.2

1.1

57.4

16.7

184.3

Transportation

0.0

0.0

109.6

0.0

0.0

0.5

110.0

Urban household

14.4

0.0

8.3

1.7

54.5

16.8

95.6

Rural household

51.7

0.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

3.6

57.4

Total

358.8

140.7

755.3

6.3

323.3

212.2

1,796.6

NaturalThermal

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Gas

Power

Electricity

Agriculture

36.5

0.0

5.7

0.0

0.0

5.8

48.0

Industry

291.0

182.9

768.6

8.2

306.6

306.6

1863.9Service Industry

126.6

0.0

27.5

8.8

80.4

33.1

276.4

Transportation

0.0

0.0

175.3

0.0

0.0

1.0

176.3

Urban household

16.3

0.0

11.6

3.1

85.0

33.3

149.3

Rural household

67.3

0.0

3.2

0.0

0.0

7.3

77.7

Total

537.7

182.9

991.8

20.1

471.9

387.2

2,591.6

NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

2020

Total

2030

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Agriculture

37.2

0.0

7.4

0.0

0.0

9.9

54.5

Industry

314.3

184.8

1,014.5

15.4

444.5

536.6

2,510.1

Service Industry

116.5

0.0

35.7

16.7

118.9

54.7

342.6

Transportation

0.0

0.0

262.9

0.0

0.0

1.7

264.6

Urban household

13.2

0.0

16.2

6.0

123.3

59.9

218.5

Rural household

65.9

0.0

6.0

0.0

0.0

13.8

85.8

Total

547.1

184.8

1,342.8

38.1

686.7

676.6

3,476.1

30

Total

Table 25: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, Policy Scenario, 10,000 Ton Standard Coal
NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

2007

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Agriculture

24.2

0.0

2.3

0.0

0.0

1.8

28.3

Industry

120.3

90.2

455.2

1.7

170.5

128.8

966.7

Service Industry

62.8

0.0

14.1

0.0

41.0

9.3

127.2

Transportation

0.0

0.0

49.8

0.0

0.0

0.3

50.1

Household

12.0

0.0

4.6

1.1

44.3

12.0

74.0

Rural Household

39.8

0.0

1.1

0.0

1.5

2.6

45.0

Total

259.1

90.2

527.1

2.8

257.3

154.8

1,291.3

NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

Urban

2010
Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Agriculture

30.5

0.0

4.1

0.0

0.0

3.2

37.8

Industry

163.6

136.2

578.1

3.6

196.1

162.3

1,239.8

Service Industry

84.8

0.0

20.9

1.2

56.2

16.3

179.3

Transportation

0.0

0.0

108.6

0.0

0.0

0.5

109.0

Urban household

14.2

0.0

8.0

1.7

53.6

16.9

94.4

Rural household

50.1

0.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

3.6

55.7

Total

343.2

136.2

721.7

6.5

305.8

202.7

1,716.1

NaturalThermal

Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

Agriculture

35.4

0.0

5.4

0.0

0.0

5.7

46.5

Industry

237.2

166.2

682.2

8.2

270.6

275.9

1,640.2

Service Industry

114.5

0.0

27.1

8.8

78.6

32.2

261.2

Transportation

0.0

0.0

173.7

0.0

0.0

1.0

174.7

Urban household

16.0

0.0

11.2

3.2

83.6

33.5

147.6

Rural household

65.2

0.0

3.2

0.0

0.0

7.2

75.6

Total

468.2

166.2

902.7

20.3

432.8

355.6

2,345.8

NaturalThermal

Gas

Power

Electricity

Total

2020

2030
Coal

Coke

Petroleum

Agriculture

36.1

0.0

7.0

0.0

0.0

9.7

52.8

Industry

218.3

161.2

770.8

15.4

365.3

413.8

1,944.8

Service Industry

104.2

0.0

35.3

16.7

116.4

53.2

325.7

Transportation

0.0

0.0

260.6

0.0

0.0

1.7

262.2

Urban household

13.0

0.0

15.7

6.2

121.2

60.3

216.4

Rural household

61.3

0.0

6.0

0.0

0.0

13.6

80.9

Total

432.7

161.2

1,095.4

38.3

602.9

552.3

2,882.831

Based on the energy consumption in each scenario, the CO2 emission is
calculated (see Figure 8).

CO2 Emission from energy use
3000.010000t-C

2500.02000.0BaU

1500.0

Low Carbon

1000.0

PolicyPotential for CCS

500.0

0.0
2006

2010

2020

2030

Figure 8: CO2 Emission by Energy Consumption of Jilin City

7 Conclusion
According to the result of scenario analysis above, the energy demand of Jilin willcontinue to increase obviously in future. Under the baseline scenario, the primaryenergy demand will increase from 15.62 million tons of standard coal to 31.26 million
in 2020 and 39.34 million in 2030. Among them, coal will still be the main energy,
accounting for 59% in 2030.
However, because of various energy policies, the primary energy demand underpolicy scenario will be 28.18 and 33.51 million tce in 2020 and 2030 respectively.
Among them, coal will account for 55.5% and 53.7%, while the proportion of nuclear
power will be up to 5% and 8%, and that of wind power will be up to 2% and 3%.
If Jilin City treats low- carbon economic development strategy as one of the key
point of social economic development, further CO2 reduction measure can be taken
into account, especially the potential of CCS application in Jilin.
It is revealed in many researches that technology advancement plays a more andmore important role in climate change mitigation. As a great developing country,
China is experiencing economic takeoff, thus technology means a lot to energy saving
and environment and climate change mitigation. And most of the technology can meetthe need of energy saving and environment protection in both short and long term.
Thus, the technology strategy can be combined with energy and environment policy.
During the study on technology development of Chinese industries, it is found that32

many technologies available now contributes a lot to energy saving, and reduces
green house gas emission as well (see Table 26). Besides, the technologies aresupported by the government, which is supposed to be popularized before 2020.
Furthermore, climate change can be used as a promotion factor to attract more capitaland international cooperation, which will propel the popularization of thetechnologies.
Table 26: Technologies Contributive to Green House Gas Reduction in Short and Mid Term
Technologies
SectorSteel Industry

Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen
furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous castingmachine, TRT
Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas andBlast Furnace gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace

Chemical Industry

Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover
System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving

Paper Making

Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor
recovery system, Continuous distillation system

TextileCo-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing andDyeingNon-ferrous Metal

Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead andzinc production

Building Materials

Dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator withresidue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln

MachineryHigh speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation
Furnace

Residential

Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving
Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting, Solar thermal for hot water,
insulation of building and energy efficient windows

Service

Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating
System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High
Efficient Lighting

Transport

Hybrid vehicle, advanced diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, ElectricCar, Fuel cell vehicle, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives,
public transport development

Common Use

High Efficiency Boiler, Fluid Bed Combustion Technology, HighTechnology

Efficiency Electric Motor
Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving
Lighting

Power Generation

Super critical unit, Natural Gas Combined Cycle, Pressured Fluid Bed
Combustion Boiler, Wind turbine, Integrated Gasification Combined
Cycle, Smaller Scale Hydropower, biomass based power generation

33

Based on the study on energy and emission of China and the whole world in thelong term, it is found that the following technologies will play an important role:
modern renewable energy production technology (solar power etc.), advanced nuclear
power system, fuel cell, IGCC/ advanced clean coal technology/ CCS, advanced gas
turbines, unconventional natural gas and raw oil production technology, synthetic fuelproduction technology and advanced transportation technology with ultra-low energy
consumption and no emission.
The technologies have already drawn the public attention; however, because of thelack of investment on the research and development, the technology can only beapplied in developed country. However, development of the technologies is themutual need of the whole world. With the strengthening of economic power andtechnical competence, it is possible for some technology to attract investment on the
research and development. For example, IGCC and clean coal technology have large
potential in Chinese market, while they are confronted with large uncertainty in othercountries with little coal consumption. Thus, there is good opportunity for China todevelop such technologies, and if China can lead the develop process, both theenvironment and economic development can benefit from it. Under the low green
house gas emission scenario, technology development strategy should take the climatechange into account, to realize the target of concentration decrease. It is a potential
emission reduction opportunity for China and other countries to cooperate on the
research and development of the technology under the climate change framework.
Jilin should make some effort to participate in developing advanced technology, makethe most of opportunities of developing advanced technologies, enhance local strengthof researching and manufacturing, and improve the economical competitiveness.
According to the scenario analysis above, measures to realize low energy policy
scenario includes:
1) Adjust the economic structure, promote the industries with high added value
and low energy consumption, and limit the manufacturer of productions withhigh energy consumption. The government and industries should be moreaware of and pay attention to the importance of combining it with the shortand mid term planning. Jilin has already faced the problem of economic
competence, which can be treated as a chance to adjust the economic
structure. Jilin is supposed to make the best of the opportunity to develop the
low-carbon economic, taking the advanced country (e.g. EU country) or
areas in developed country (e.g. California, US).
2) Fully implement the energy-saving policy, and set the energy-saving target in“11th five year plan” as a long term policy.
343) The energy- saving target of Jilin is higher than the national average, andsome mature energy- saving policy has been widely accepted, so Jilin canfurther take other measures, such as implementing stricter energy-saving
standard or local energy tax/ resource tax etc..
4) Encourage more energy-saving investment, take the advantage of strong
economic power in the area development, lead the private investment by
public investment, and build an advanced economic system of low energy
consumption.
5) Build an energy utilization system based on the most advanced technologies,
in order to make the energy using efficiency keep ahead both at home andabroad between 2020 and 2030.
According to the policies and actions of sustainable development, energy saving,
and regenerative energy, we can conclude that the policies can be implemented in along term. The technologies mentioned in Table 5 may have a widely application
before 2020. The important next generation technologies, including IGCC, advanced
coal conversion, wind energy generation, Solar PV, biomass power generation andgasification, advanced automobile technology, advanced nuclear technology, are all
researched and developed with the government support. Some achievement has gotten
already, and may be in a international leading position in future.
The model analysis also indicates: It will take a long term to realize the low carbon
Scenario. The innovations of technology, conception, consumption behavior, and thepolicy mechanism are necessary. The technology innovation, mainly includes
implementing and extending the advanced technology, new materials, advanced
process flow and low carbon consumptions, in fields of electric generation, industry
energy saving, energy saving consumable, transportation, and Energy-saving building.
Further more, we need to pay more attention to extend the application of advanced
technologies, such as industrial boiler, furnace. The policy mechanism innovation
mainly includes making the suitable policy to the low carbon economic, strict
standard of energy efficiency and low carbon commodity, tax collection on carbon
emission, and the encourage policies to establish the markets of low carbon andenergy efficiency.
The advanced technologies and policies to realize low carbon scenario is shown in
Table 27.

35

Table 27: Advanced Technologies and Policies to Realize Low Carbon Scenario

Department

Advanced Technologies and Policies

Building Industry

The energy saving standards of 65% and 75% are implemented, and thestandards will increase year by year. Buildings with characteristics of high energy
efficiency, sustainable (Green) buildings, applying advanced refrigeration andheating technologies are the main trend. Encourage the technology applicationsof ice storage and heat storage air controllers, combined cooling, heating andpower system, fan and pump with function of frequency conversion in Central air
conditioning and heating system, electric equipments and heat pump, to saveenergy and water, Solar water heater, Heat cost Allocator. Establish the energy
management system, and the technical consultation and information network.
Realize the audit of energy and DSM. Implement the energy efficiency standard
and identification to all the electrical equipments. The technologies include solar
home system, regenerative energy application, thermal energy storage heatexchanger, new building materials, energy saving lamp and so on.

Transportation

Hybrid vehicle, electrical cars, advanced diesel oil automobiles, public trafficsystem, biologic fuel. Increase the purchasing and using cost of personalautomobiles. Provide allowance and reduce tax for efficient and environmental
automobiles. Traffic demand management (TDM). Develop the traffic with
non-motor vehicles. Improve economy of fuel by the compulsory standards orvoluntary agreement. Develop public traffic. Improve public consciousness.
Exploit substitute energy (such as hydrocracking), variable valve controls-VVT,
fuel battery automobile, regenerative energy application technology, substitutemode for non-traffic transportation.
Low-carbon intensive and high energy efficiency production technology, highefficient, industry boiler, advanced industry energy saving technology (in thefields of iron and steel system, architecture materials, glass, chemical industry
and so on), efficient electromotor, re-use and recycling of waste. Establish morerigid standards of energy efficiency and low-carbon commodity. Reduce theallowance and tax preference of high energy-consuming industry. Develop tradeof carbon emission. Definite the energy price/carbon tax/energy tax, tax
reduction/preference, government financial support, laws. Establish the policy ofindustry development, and the plan of technology research. Increase theinvestment on research and exploitation. Establish the mechanism of technology
innovation, new technology demonstration. Develop circular economy; enlarge
the market of technologies; import advanced technologies; Adjust industry
structure. Take advantage of the energy resources; intensify energy efficiency
standards and markings. Develop voluntary agreement and international
cooperation. Improve the consciousness of energy saving and greenhouse gas
emission reduction.
IGCC, CCGT, nuclear power, CHP, distributed electric power generation system,
biological materials application technology, solar energy for electric generation,
biomass liquefaction, hydropower development, advanced fuel forest, windenergy, solar energy, clean coal, and biotechnology.

Industry

Energy Supply(Electric
Generation)

36

Table 27: Advanced Technologies And Policies to Realize Low Carbon Scenario (Continued 1)

Department

Advanced Technologies and Policies

Economic
Incentive Policies

Pay equal attention to tax collection and voluntary agreement, and encourage
enterprises to take part in the voluntary agreement activities. Give financial
support to enterprises which put greenhouse gas emission reduction activities
into effect. Implement the preferential tax to energy saving products. Special
support fund for energy saving should be established by the governments. Start
the government purchasing plan so as to supply the bargain regenerative
energy. Encourage the exploiting enterprises to build advanced energy saving
and environmental buildings. Encourage consumers to buy energy saving andenvironmental buildings.

Domestic andOversea Low
CarbonCooperation

Sufficiently make use of different chances in international cooperation, andexpand the international cooperation of financing and technology transference,
including the CDM projects present, and the potential opportunity of carbon
trade. There are still mass of cooperation opportunities at present.

CCS Technology

Take advantage of the demonstration projects organized by the international
cooperation and notional programming, in order to promote CCS application in
the terminal departments of energy consumption of electricity, cement, steel andso on.

37