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Shiga’s scenario towards therealization of a sustainable society

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Summary of a quantitative scenario study on theestablishment of a sustainable society in Shiga Prefecture
Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team
March 2007

To realize sustainable Shiga
Background of the need to shift to the sustainable society
Shiga Prefecture is facing various problems including the issue ofwater quality in Lake Biwa, our “Mother Lake.” While the proper
treatment and disposal of the waste generated in the prefecture is a
short term challenge, the course for the establishment of a recycling
system based on a long term outlook is also still uncertain. The
population growth due to the immigration of young generations andother factors as well as the solid performance of the manufacturingindustry are increasing CO2 emissions, and there is no doubt thatthey would keep increasing for a long term without tackling them.
We have prepared this booklet to stop such environmental trends. Based on future changes in our populationand economy, it boldly illustrates the vision of sustainable Shiga in 2030 and lists the policies and measures necessary for the realization of it. The environmental indicators selected to represent sustainability include GHG(greenhouse gas) emissions and water quality, beauty of lake areas, the area of reed communities in Lake Biwa as
well as the amount of landfill waste.

Urgent and decisive actions are needed
Our main conclusions are as follows:
If businesses in Shiga substitute production systems with less environmental impact for the existing ones, people adopt environmentallyfriendly lifestyle, and local governments, etc. implement decisive environment improvement projects, the following targets, which are set as
our environmental targets for 2030, can be achieved:･ The reduction of GHG emissions by half (from the 1990 level);･ Recovery of water quality in Lake Biwa to the level in the decadefrom 1965;･ Recovery of the area of reed communities to the level in 1955;･ Doubling of the beautiful lake areas (from the 2000 level); and･ Reduction of landfill waste by 75% (from the 2000 level).
To achieve these targets, the design of a system to encourage the relevant parties to take actions and implement necessary projects should start immediately.
We expect that this proposal will help start full scale discussion of how Shiga should be sustainable involving all
people of the prefecture. We also hope that our proposal triggers discussions of similar issues among other local
autonomies and efforts to create sustainable communities spread to other regions.
March 2007

To compile this booklet, Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team (Shiga SD 2030 Research Team), established under the Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute, has worked for the information collection, estimation, analysis,
examination, etc.

Contents

Environmental targets for 2030 ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 1

Proposal for meeting the environmental targets・・ 3
Businesses・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 3
Citizen ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 4
Local governments, etc.・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 4
Policy to promote the efforts and actions・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 4

Shiga’s socioeconomic assumption in 2030 ・・・・・ 7
Main social trends in 2030 ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 7
Population and number of households・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 8
Macro economy ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 9Industrial structure ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 9Time budget ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 10

Scenario towards a sustainable society ・・・・・・・・・ 11
Realization of a low carbon economy ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 11
Revival of the Lake Biwa environment

・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

15

Establishment of a recycling system ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 21

Research methodology ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ 23

Environmental targets

Environmental targets for 2030
To establish a scenario to create a sustainable society, we will firstly examine the environmental conditions
that Shiga should achieve in 2030. Among the potential indicators for setting environmental targets, we haveselected the establishment of a low carbon economy to tackle global warming (GHG emissions), the environment of Lake Biwa, the symbol of Shiga’s local natural environment (water quality, area of reed communities,
and beauty of lake areas), and the Establishment of a recycling system (amount of landfill waste). Although
they are all important and difficult, it is necessary to meet these three targets at least at the same time in orderto realize the “sustainable” environment.

Establishment of a low carbon economy
Global warming is one of the major global environmental challenges that human being face. The impacts expected from global warming include attack of more gigantic typhoons, more heavy rain and flooding events, rise in
the sea level, and in some regions, more droughts. It is forecast that these impacts will cause serious damage tofood production, cities and buildings, and human health, and the ecosystem will also be affected inevitably. It isbelieved that global warming is already being apparent due to the greenhouse gases emitted from human activities
and has to be addressed immediately.
Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005, which requires Japan to reduce GHG emissions by 6% below the 1990 level in the first commitment period (2008 to 2012). To meet the target, various plans and actions areunderway at different levels in Japan. Shiga Prefecture has also established a target of reducing GHG emissions in2010 by 9% below the 1990 level in the (revised) Global
Warming Countermeasures Promotion Plan. However, it is
Reduction of GHG emissions by half
claimed that much more drastic reduction is needed to
avoid the risks of global warming.
In the international
discussion of required reduction levels, consensus is being built that it is necessary to limit the temperature rise
to not more than 2oC above the pre-industrial levels to stabilize the climate, as a target for avoiding serious
damage. To meet this target, it is needed to reduce global GHG emissions by half from the 1990 level by themid-21st century. Even the developed countries that have already met high emission standards are required toachieve further drastic emission reductions. Recent research has indicated that Japan has to reduce the emissions in 2050 by 60-80% below the 1990 level as its long term target. As a part of Japan, Shiga Prefecture willbe also required to realize similar level of emission reductions. Then, we target to reduce GHG emissions in
2030 by half from the 1990 level. To stabilize the climate, it is necessary to make efforts at the global level over
the time scales of decades to centuries. Still, the realization of a low carbon economy in Shiga in 2030 willshow a model to the world and steadily contribute to leaving a livable global environment to next generations.

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment
The functions of Lake Biwa are various ranging from supply of water resources for Shiga and neighboring prefectures and the maintenance of the diverse ecosystem with many indigenous species to places for recreation andrelaxation with beautiful landscape. People in Shiga have lived in harmony with Lake Biwa and enjoyed such blessings of the lake since the ancient times. However, due to recent changes in land use, industrial activities, and lifestyle in the surrounding area, abnormal conditions such as the generation of red tides and water blooms, and decrease of indigenous fish and nesting waterfowl have been becoming routine in the lake, and there is also a concern about the deterioration of the landscape in lake areas because of the transformation of the lakeshores. No
sign of improvement has been seen in the declining functions of the lake yet.

1

We set the rehabilitation of the environment to the level where these original functions can be fully fulfilled by 2030
as the target for the environment of Lake Biwa. Specific goals are as follows:(3) As areas around the lake (lake areas) are an indispensable component of the original landscape of Lake
Biwa, we set the doubling of the beautiful lake areas as the target for the conservation of landscape.
Sustainable Shiga will meet these targets are met and improve the various functions of Lake Biwa simultaneously. This means that the drastic improvement of the water quality will result in the elimination of abnormal
conditions such as the generation of red tides and water blooms as well as the improved quality of the source ofdrinking water. People in not only Shiga but also other Kansai regions can enjoy these blessings. The restoration of habitats represented by reed communities in lake areas will diversify indigenous species and nesting waterfowl in the lake and increase their population, which will also lead to the recovery of the original scenery of
Lake Biwa symbolized by flourishing fishery and wild geese alighting at Katata. In addition, natural lakeshores
and traditional townscape will be revived in lake areas, and the beautiful landscape, which used to be admired
as “Ohmi Hakkei (eight most beautiful scenes in the southern part of Lake Biwa),” will be restored as a symbolof the society where nature and human beings really coexist.

Establishment of a recycling system
In the conventional mass consumption society, people have bought foods, clothes, electronic goods, andhouses they like and disposed of them as garbage when they
are no longer in use. Meanwhile, businesses have gener- Reduction of landfill waste by 75%
ated a large amount of waste in manufacturing processes.
Landfill sites have been steadily filled with such waste, and new sites have been sought before old ones arecompletely filled. But, it will be impossible to continue such practices. While waste is inevitably generated aslong as people live, the securing of landfill sites in the land of Shiga with rich nature faces restrictions from various aspects and will be even more difficult in future.
To establish a favorable recycling system in Shiga, it is necessary to reduce waste generation as well as toestablish a system to recycle waste as resources in order to extend the life of the existing landfill sites as longas possible. The Waste Disposal Plan of Shiga Prefecture formulated in June 2006 targets the reduction of theamount of landfill municipal waste and industrial waste to a half and a third respectively in 2010 from the 1997
level. Nevertheless, it is desirable to reduce landfill waste close to zero in the long term when the current statusof the landfill sites is considered. Here, we set a target of reducing landfill waste in 2030 to a fourth of the 2000
level (or a fifth of the 1997 level) and draw a vision of the recycling system to be achieved based on the target.

2

Environmental targets(1) For the supply of water resources, we will seek
to restore the water quality to the level before Reduction of pollutant load flows into the lake
the generation of red tides and water blooms in by half for the conservation of water quality
northern part of the lake (water quality in the Doubling of the area of reed communities for
decade from 1965: COD 1.7mg/l). This re- the restoration of the lakeshore ecosystemquires the pollutant load flows into Lake Biwa to
Doubling of the beautiful lake areas for the
be reduced by half.
conservation of the landscape(2) For the maintenance of the diverse ecosystem,
habitats and spawning/nesting sites are essential. We will seek to restore reed communities on the lakeshores, which are the most important sources of them,to double the area to the level around the year 1955.

Proposal

Proposal for meeting the environmental targets
In order to meet the “Environmental targets for 2030” mentioned in the preceding chapter, it is necessary tofind a path to maintain healthy activities under strict environmental restrictions based on mutual support between “citizen,” “businesses,” and “local governments, etc.” This path will be narrow and tough but it will not be
impossible to clear the path with decisive policies. In the following, we propose the efforts and actions required
for these three players and policies needed for them.

Efforts and actions to be taken by the players
Businesses
The manufacturing industry is expected to continuously account for huge part of Shiga’s gross product with robust exports to outside the prefecture in 2030, and the environmental impact of the sector will be still large. Thus,
its role in meeting the environmental targets is extremely important and the sector is required to make the following
efforts to promote the establishment of a more environmentally friendly production system:･ Introduction of high efficiency production equipment: improvement of the total efficiency by 22%;･ Switching of fuel for production: increase in the share of natural gas from 8.6% (2000) to 26.8% (2030);･ Reduction of water pollutant load factor by 50%;
･ Increase in the ratio of valuable industrial waste sold by 10%;･ Increase in the ratio of recycled industrial waste: e.g. ratio of recycled waste plastics/rubber from 76% (2004)
to 94% (2030);･ More efficient logistics: reduction of transport volume per production by 30%;･ Modal shift: substitution of railway transport for freight for 50% of road transport to distant prefectures; and･ Introduction of biomass fuel to freight vehicles: penetration rate of 10%.
The primary industry (agriculture, forestry, and fishery) is assumed to grow dramatically due to the penetration of“Made in Shiga” brands and demand expansion based on local production for local consumption although its sharein Shiga’s gross product is small. This sector especially represents a large proportion in terms of the generation ofpollutants causing water quality impairments, and for the achievement of the environmental targets, further promotion of environmentally friendly agricultural practices including the following efforts are required:･ Improvement of farming methods: reduction of fertilizer application by all farmers; 100% return of animal waste
to farms; and repetitive use of effluent in 50% of rice fields.
Although having occupied a smaller proportion of Shiga’s gross product in comparison with the national averagein the past, the service industry is presumed to grow dramatically by 2030, and environmental measures in this sector will also play a crucial part in meeting the targets. Specifically, the following efforts should be promoted among
others:･ Introduction of high efficiency business equipment: improvement of total efficiency by 40%;
･ Use of heat insulating buildings for business: compliance with the heat insulation standard for energy savingbuildings in 90% of buildings;･ Use of renewable energy in business buildings: introduction of photovoltaic power generation in 50% of buildings
and biomass heating in 10%; and･ Environmentally friendly business activities: 100% implementation of energy saving actions.

Citizen
The number of households in Shiga Prefecture is estimated to keep growing until 2030, which would result indramatic increases in energy consumption and the generation of water pollutants and waste in households if nocountermeasures were taken. It is also expected that more women and elderly people will have driving licenses

3and CO2 and other emissions from passenger vehicles will greatly increase. Thus, the following efforts and actions
are required among others:

Local governments, etc.
To meet the environmental targets, local governments, etc. will promote the following projects in organic cooperation with relevant agencies:･ Maintenance of forests: proper thinning, etc. in all plantation sites (42% of forest area);･ Formation of compact cities: reduction of average distance of intra-city travel by 25%, and conversion of unused
space to green zone 20%;･ Development and maintenance of sewage systems and reception of industrial effluent: 96% coverage of sewage, and reception of 100% of industrial effluent;･ Measures for drainage in urban area: retention and infiltration of 30% of rainwater on building sites, and greening of 20% of roof area;･ Measures for drainage in urban area: cleaning of 50% of road surface and drainage, and permeable paving of
20% of road;･ Urban area effluent purification facilities: purification of 30% of the effluent not covered by the above measuresfor drainage in urban area;･ Measures for rivers, etc.: direct purification of river water (vegetation purification, contact purification, etc.), anddredging;･ Planting of reeds: increase in the area to 260 ha including existing communities; and･ Development of beautiful lake areas: removal of concrete and wave-dissipating blocks from lakeshores andcreation of lakeshores with natural stones and sand.

Policies to promote the efforts and actions
The policies to promote the above-mentioned efforts and actions required for the relevant players include thefollowings, and it is necessary to start the design of the systems and the analysis of the effects, etc.
･ Policies to reduce the environmental impact of business activities:
Voluntary environmental action plans, environmental conservation agreements with local governments, etc., tax
systems to reflect environmental impact, regulations on environmental impact, environmental performance standards, subsidy schemes for advanced efforts, and low interest loans to environmental in vestment･ Policies to reduce the environmental impact of people’s activities:
Enlightenment and education, environmental performance standards, subsidy schemes for advanced efforts,
and low interest loans to environmental investment･ Policies to promote environmental projects of local governments, etc.
Use of tax revenue according to environmental impact, and regulations on land use and construction

4

Proposal･ Introduction of high efficiency equipment: improvement of total efficiency by 40%;
･ Use of heat insulating buildings: compliance with the next-generation heat insulation standard in 90% of buildings;･ Use of renewable energy in houses: introduction of photovoltaic power generation in 20% of houses, solar hot
water system in 20%, biomass heating in 10%, and passive solar in 10%;･ Penetration of fuel-efficient passenger vehicles: increase in average fuel efficiency by 60% (share of hybrid vehicles: 90%);･ Introduction of biomass fuel for passenger vehicles: penetration rate of 10%; and･ Environmentally friendly actions:
100% implementation of energy saving actions, increased share of railway transport from 23% (2000) to 36%(2030), increased share of walking and bicycles from 6% (2000) to 16% (2030), 100% implementation of kitchenmanagement, 50% implementation of reuse of bathwater and rainwater, and recycling of municipal waste 500g
per day and person.
These environmentally friendly actions will be facilitated by the increases in time for social activities and leisureexpected in 2030.

Proposal

Main efforts and actions required for the respective players to achieve different environmental targets

Businesses

CitizenLocal governments,
etc.

Realization of a low carbon
economyIntroduction of high efficiency
production equipment
Fuel switching in manufacturing and transportation
More efficient logistics andmodal shift
Environmentally friendly
housesPenetration of fuel-efficientpassenger vehicles
Energy saving actions
Use of railway, bicycles, andwalking
Maintenance of forests
formation of compact cities
Encouragement of modal shift

Rehabilitation of the environmentof Lake Biwa
Reduction of water pollutant loads
per production value

Establishment of arecycling system
Recycling of waste
Development of efficient
recycling plants

Kitchen management
Reuse of bathwater and rainwater

Control of municipal waste
generation through the use ofrented and leased goods
Separation and recycling ofdomestic waste

Development of sewage
systems and reception of industrial effluent
Measures for drainage in urban
Direct purification of river waterand dredging
Conversion to natural lakeshores

Establishment of a system
for the reuse and recycling ofmunicipal waste
Establishment of efficient
recycling routes

Proposal of the tri-parties beneficial policy model
The tri-parties beneficial policy model is a mechanism where the three parties of businesses, citizen, and local
governments, etc. share not only environmental benefits but also economic gains, and “sustainable tax system” and“sustainable finance” will play the pivotal roles in the mechanism. They also serve as tools for promotion and control for the parties, and may be used cooperatively to have synergic effects.
The sustainable tax system will involve the greening and expansion of existing taxes such as automobile tax andautomobile acquisition tax, industrial waste tax, charges on domestic waste, forest environmental tax, golf course
use tax, real estate acquisition tax, and fixed asset tax as well as the establishment of new taxes such as charges
on exhaust gas and effluent and Lake Biwa recreational use tax. The tax system will operate these taxes in an integrated manner to encourage relevant parties to change their behavior towards the establishment of a sustainable
society and use the tax revenue as sources for the development of sustainable infrastructure. Special depreciationand deduction schemes for environmental investment by companies, etc. will be also operated as part of this tax
system.
Sustainable finance consists of low-interest loans to environmental investment, environmental project finance,
loan decision and interest rate adjustment based on environmental risk, eco funds, interest rate on term deposit
linked with environmental quality, and loans to domestic ESCOs (energy service companies). Some of them arealready in operation or under consideration at financial institutions in Shiga ahead of other prefectures in Japan,
and they will contribute to the further enhancement of environmental investment by companies and environmental
awareness among people in the prefecture. The environmental credit guarantee program for small and mediumsized enterprises by public agencies is another important policy to support this financial scheme.
Although not included in the figure, the emissions trading system with the proper allocation of emission allowances to individual entities in the prefecture is also an effective and efficient program and should be continuously
considered as the third pillar of the tri-parties beneficial system package.

5

Tri-parties beneficial policy model
Citizen

Purchase of equipment withlow environmental impact
Installation of equipment for using renewable energy
Greening of roofs and walls, anduse of rainwater
Environmentally friendly houses
with high heat insulation, etc.
Separation and recycling ofwaste, and kitchen management
Environmentally friendly actions
such as reuse of bathwater
Use of rental and lease services

Sustainable finance
Manufacturing

Low interest loans to environmental
investment
Environmental project financeInterest rate adjustment according
to environmental risk
Eco funds
Fluctuation of interest rate on deposit
linked with environmental quality
Low-interest loans to ESCOs

Production process with low
environmental impact
Fuel switching
Waste reduction, reuse, andrecycling
Supply of products with low
environmental impact
More efficient logistics

Sustainable service industry
Lease, car sharing, and ESCOs

LinkedLocal communities, infrastructure

Sustainable tax system

Public transport system
Development of lanes and parking lots for bicycles
Development of sewage systems, permeable pavement,
rainwater retention and infiltration facilities
Drainage treatment in urban
area, Planting of reeds

Charges on exhaust gas andeffluentIndustrial waste tax
Forest environmental tax
Automobile tax and automobile acquisition tax
Real estate acquisition tax
and fixed asset tax
Charges on domestic waste
Golf course use tax
Lake Biwa recreational use
tax

Compact cities, and environmentally friendly ruralcommunities

Energy supply
Green power
Natural gas grid
Production and distribution of
biofuels

Green logistics bases
Connection with railway andEnvironmentally friendly
agriculture/forestry/fishery
Reduction of fertilizer application
Supply of organic resources
Water resource recharging and
CO2 absorbing forests

Strict regulations on land use
Information on sustainability
Environmental performance standard
and evaluation of buildings

Sustainable tax system (imposition,
tax collection, tax revenue allocation,and tax rate adjustment)

Local governments, etc.
EffectFlow of tax revenue

6

Environmental credit
guarantee

ProposalBusinesses

Households, schools,
hospitals, etc.

Socioeconomic assumption

Shiga’s socioeconomic assumption in 2030
Dominant social trends in 2030
Shiga’s socioeconomic vision in 2030 can be characterized by the following three major trends:(1) Return of the population to the current level and progress of aging;(2) Mature economic growth and dramatic increase in the role of the tertiary industry; and(3) Increase in the proportion of women and elderly people in employment.
However, these changes are expected to differ naturally between different regions in the prefecture. Based on theoverview of the whole prefecture as well as rough division of characteristics between cities and rural villages, thefuture vision can be described as follows:

Powerful cities and industries maintaining intra-prefectural and inter-prefectural connections
The urban population continues to increase due to the settlement of young people and moves from other prefectures. The service industry greatly grows and provides jobs. Among the industry, real estate, transportation, communications, tourism, and rental sectors as well as finance, which support investment and financing for these areas,play pivotal roles. While many residents of cities live in mid-to-high-rise housing in function-intensive cities, they will
participate in local traditional activities in Shiga, and communities and lifestyles integrating both old and new generations will be formed. Daily shopping and amusement do not depend on large suburban shopping malls but people use shopping avenues around railway stations and in downtown areas, which helps urban centers regain vitality. As even elderly people have employment offers and many women have jobs, service sectors such as housekeeping, child care, education, adult education, healthcare, welfare, and nursing care play major parts in the local
economy and society, and it is also important for local communities to supplement these functions. Such communities have another crucial function of providing places for cultural leisure activities for people in both urban and rural
areas.

Beautiful rural villages maintaining nature and landscapeDespite the dramatic decrease in population size and aging, the primary industry greatly grows in a large-scale
and multi-functional style, supported by the entry of corporations. The sector contributes to the supply of foods andwoods (Shiga brand products) to the market in the prefecture as well as the recharge of water resources, maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks, supply of biomass energy, and the promotion of eco-tourism. Furthermore, village development in harmony with nature progresses as a model for the sustainable society, and the vilSpecific assumptions
Population

1.38 million in 2030 (estimated by Shiga Prefecture in 2006; similar level to the population in 2005)

No. of households

520,000 households in 2030 (same as above; 470,000 households in 2005)

National economy

Per capita GDP: approximately 0.9% of annual growth

Public fixed capitalformation

Investment in infrastructure development, etc. After basic infrastructure development has been completed, newdevelopment is dramatically reduced and capital investment is placed mainly on maintenance and management.
Total investment is lower than the current level.

Breakdown of private consumption
expenditure

Breakdown of the goods and services consumed mainly in households. With longer-life products, the value ofpurchased goods remains unchanged. It is assumed that the shares of spending for the primary industry andpersonal services (education, healthcare and insurance, accommodation, etc.) increase.

Employment rate

Through the development of the welfare environment to facilitate the employment of elderly people and women,
the employment rate of elderly males rises by 20% and the rate of women by 10 to 30%.

Time budget

The working hours of male workers are reduced by 1.5 hours per day. It is assumed that both men and women
increase time for participating in social activities.

Breakdown of exports

The breakdown of goods and services delivered from Shiga to outside the prefecture. The exports of products inthe manufacturing industry are assumed to remain unchanged in monetary terms.

Import ratio

The ratio of the goods and services produced outside Shiga Prefecture in the demands for goods and services in
the prefecture. The import ratio of goods in the primary industry declines, but imports of other goods and services
increase.

Input coefficient

The input of raw materials needed for the production of one unit in a certain industry. It is assumed that this figure declines due to paperless operations based on the use of IT, less input of metal and cement and increase ofwood products in public projects, and reduced consumption of fuel and electricity as a result of energy saving.

Labor productivity

To maintain an annual economic growth of 0.9% while the population is decreasing, it is necessary to secure highlabor productivity. Labor productivity per person-hour rises by 2.7% per annum in the manufacturing industry andby 1.6% in the service industry.

7

The amount of environmental impact is closely related with the social and economic conditionsof that time. Therefore, we have estimated various aspects of Shiga such as demands forgoods based on certain assumptions on the direction of social development until 2030. As the
future situation including changes in population and economic growth is uncertain, what we
present here is only assumption.

lages serve as sources of leisure, welfare, nursing care, and education by use of blessings of nature through exchanges with people in urban area.

Population and number of households
According to the figures of the population estimated by Shiga Prefecture in 2006, the total population is
expected to take a downward turn around 2017 and fall to 1.38 million in 2030 (similar to the level in 2005). It
is forecast that, while the population will continue to grow in Otsu and urban areas in southern Shiga, theother parts will have population decline. In the population composition, because of the low birthrate and aging, the ratio of working-age population (15 to 65 years old) will decline from 67% (2005) to 60% (2030) andthe group of 65 years or older will increase the ratio from 18% to 28%. The percentage of elderly population
will be especially high in northern and western Shiga. The number of households is estimated to grow from
470,000 in 2005 to 520,000 in 2030 due to the increase of single-person households.
Age pyramid in Shiga Prefecture

Population of three age groups by year
2030

85~
80~84
75~79
70~74
65~69
60~64
55~59
50~54
45~49
40~44
35~39
30~34
25~29
20~24
15~19
10~14
5~9
0~4

16 0

12 0
10 0
80
60
40
20

40

20

0

20

40

60

60

Men 男（千(1,000)人）

40

20

0

20

Women (1,000)
女（千人）

40

2.81

51
50

2.75

2.70

50.3

90

2.75
2.65

90

Otsu, southern Shiga, and
Koga

80

2.50

48.9

Higashi Ohmi and eastern
Shiga
Northern and western
Shiga

70

47
46.9

60

2.25

45

50

44

2.00
2005年
2005
Year

2010
2010
年

2015
2015
年

2020
2020
年

2025年
2025

H42(202030
30)

H3 7(2025)
2025

H32(2020)2020

H27(2015)
2015

H22(2010)
2010

H17(2005)
2005

H7(1995)
1995

H12(2000)
2000

H2(1990)
1990

S60(1985)
1985

S55(1980)
1985

S50(1975)
1980

93

49

46

S45(1970)
1970

100

52.1

51.9
51.4

S40(1965)
1965

106

3.00

2.95
2.87

S35(196
0)
1960

Population index in different regions of
the prefecture (Year 2005=100)
110(person; right scale)52

S30(1955)
1955

60

Men男（千人）(1,000)

Number of households and average number of
persons per household
Number of(万世帯：左目盛)
households
世帯数(10,000 households; left scale)
平均世帯人員Average number of (人：右目盛)
persons1950
S25(1950)

1945
S20(1945)0

Women(1,000)女（千 人）

48

Aged
population
老年
人口
生産
年齢人口 population
Working-age
年少
人口
Child
population

14 0

60

53

Socioeconomic assumption

Age group

2000

2005
Year

2030
2030
年

8

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Socioeconomic assumption

Macro economy
The estimate performed by our research team based on a macroeconomic model shows that the (real) grossproduct in Shiga Prefecture in 2030 will be approximately 7,677 billion yen, 30% higher than the results in 2002.
Shiga’s economy depends heavily on exports because of the structure, and this estimate also draws the picture
as a mature economy in consideration of an assumption on the economic growth of Japan as a whole (annual per
capita GDP growth of approximately 0.9%).

Industrial structure
We have conducted an input-output analysis based on final demands in the macro economy and estimatedthe industrial structure in Shiga Prefecture. While the secondary industry in the prefecture is characteristicallylarge in scale, it will decrease the production slightly and also lose the share from 62.3% (2000) to 48.2% (2030).
On the other hand, the share of the tertiary industry will grow dramatically from 36.9% (2000) to 47.6% (2030).
The share of the primary industry is forecast to increase from 0.8% (2000) to approximately 4.2% (2030).
Macroeconomic indicators (billion yen)

7677
556

2030/
2002
1.30
1.28

Average
growth rate
0.95%
0.90%

2541

3145

1.24

0.76%

Real housing investment

245

285

1.16

0.53%

Real exports

6004

8132

1.35

1.09%

Real imports

5183

7162

1.38

1.16%

Real private capital investment

782

1098

1.40

1.22%

Real public consumption
Real public fixed capital formation

877

1617

1.84

2.21%

433

339

0.78

-0.87%

2002

2030

Real GDP of Shiga Prefecture
Per capita (10,000 yen)

5884
433

Real private consumption expenditure

Furthermore, we have estimatedproduction by industry in further detailwith an input-output analysis. Based onassumptions that the service sector
grows and the food self-sufficiency ratio
in the prefecture increases (about 50%
in monetary terms including intermediate
input) because of local production for
local consumption, etc. at the sametime, we have estimated that the sharesof the primary and tertiary industries willgrow and that of the secondary industry
will decline in the production in 2030.

Production by industry
Production Share in the total(billion yen)production
2000
2030
2000
2030
95
564
Primary industry
90
531
Agriculture and forestry
6
33
Fishery
7220
6470
Secondary industry
22
10
Mining938
985
Construction
6260
5475
Manufacturing
4269
6401
Tertiary industry
Utilities (electricity, gas,
102
116
heat, and water)
Transportation and532
1002
communications
541
637
Wholesale/retail and restaurants
314
593
Finance and insurance
657
708
Real estate
1739
2612
Service335
658
Public duties
50
74
Unclassifiable
11584
13435
Total

0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
62.3%
0.2%
8.1%
54.0%
36.9%

4.2%
4.0%
0.2%
48.2%
0.1%
7.3%
40.7%
47.6%

0.9%

0.9%

4.6%
4.7%
2.7%
5.7%
15.0%
2.9%
0.4%

As the share of the manufacturingindustry is large in the industrial structure of Shiga Prefecture, the exports
account for a high proportion of the final
demands.
Therefore, the industry
largely depends on the economic trendof Japan as a whole. Based on the assumption that per capita GDP in Japan
will grow by 0.87% until 2030, we haveestimated that annual per capita GDP
growth will be 0.90% in Shiga.

Production by industry (billion yen)
16000
13435
14000
11584
12000

Primary
industry

7.5%

10000

4.7%
4.4%
5.3%
19.4%
4.9%
0.5%

8000

Secondaryindustry
Tertiary
industry

6000
4000
2000
0
2000

9

2030

Time budget
It is estimated that men will spend less time working (from 7.0 hours to 5.6 hours among the group of 30 to
44 years old) and more time doing housekeeping (from 0.8 hours to 1.7 hours among the group of 35 to 39
years old) while women will spend more time working (from 2.9 hours to 3.6 hours among the group of 30 to 44
years old) and less time doing housekeeping (from 5.8 hours to 4.4 hours among the group of 35 to 39 yearsold). In the society as a whole, it is expected to spend more time for leisure and local activities with the increasein elderly population as one of the reasons.

2000

Men

Women
Other
その他

20

20

15

趣味・娯楽
Hobbies15

移動
Travel time
10

10

5

5

0

00

家事・介護・看護・
House keeping
育児・買物

85~

80~84

75~79

70~74

65~69

60~64

55~59

50~54

45~49

40~44

35~39

30~34

25~29

20~24

睡眠
Sleeping

15~19

85~

80~84

75~79

70~74

65~69

60~64

55~59

50~54

45~49

40~44

35~39

30~34

25~29

20~24

15~19

仕事
Work

2030

その他
Other
20

20

15

15

ボランティア活動・
Volunteer
社会参加活動Activities
趣味・娯楽
Hobbies
移動
Travel
time

10

10

House
keeping
家事・介護・看護・
育児・買物
仕事
Work

5

5

80~84

75~79

70~74

65~69

60~64

55~59

50~54

45~49

40~44

35~39

30~34

25~29

20~24

85~

80~84

75~79

70~74

65~69

60~64

55~59

50~54

45~49

40~44

35~39

30~34

25~29

20~24

15~19

15~19

0

0

85~

Sleeping
睡眠

The graphs above show how people in Shiga spend 24 hours by gender and age group. The figures in 2000 are basedon the Survey of Time Use and Leisure Activities conducted by national government of Japan, and those in 2030 are estimates in this research. The lime green areas represent working hours, which reflect the increases in the labor participation
rate of women and elderly people. The time for voluntary activities and social participation activities, presented in bisquecolor, will increase by around 30 minutes per day on average, which is equivalent to participating in 8-hour activities forabout 24 days in a year.

10

Socioeconomic assumption

ボランティア活動・
Volunteer
社会参加活動Activities

Scenario towards a sustainable society

Scenario towards a sustainable society
Realization of a low carbon economy
Current status and trends of GHG emissions
Our target is to reduce GHG emissions by 50% below the 1990 level. CO2 emissions from energy use, thedominant source of greenhouse gases in Shiga Prefecture, were 11.1 million tons of CO2 in 1990 and increasedby 10% to 12.1 million tons of CO2 in 2000. Without measures taken for emission control, the emissions are estimated to grow to 13.8 million tons of CO2 in 2030, equivalent to approximately 20% higher than the 1990 level.
Among the whole GHG emissions, the share of CO2 emissions from industrial processes will decline due tochanges in the industrial structure of Shiga.

Changes in amount of activities
This research has classified energy consuming sectors into the five categories of households, business
operations (such as shops and offices), industry (meaning factories and similar sites here), passenger transport, and freight transport. The indicator to quantitatively represent each activity level is referred to as amountof activities, and this analysis presents the amount of activities of households in the number of households,
business operations in the floor area of business buildings, industry in the production of the primary and secondary industries, and both passenger and freight transport in transport volume (person-km and ton-km, reMain measures

GHG emissions by sector

16000

14000

GHG emissions (1,000 t-CO2eq)

12000

14369
12877
12496
1149
924

10000

165
101

335
1080

156
240

897

303
283

Forestabsorption
Agriculture(methane)

2906

Industrial
process

1155

6276
6436

6000

6383

416
960

6749

Freight
Transport
303
235

4000
1430
2000

1240

1686

2114

0
1990
-2000

3769

1263
1013

2000

2030BaU

Use of public transport, increased use of bicycles, cooler business clothes in summer andwarmer clothes in winter, hot bathing before thebathwater getting cold, environmentally friendly
way of cooking, and other energy saving actions

RenewableenergyPhotovoltaic power generation, use of solar
heat, biomass fuel for automobiles, biomass fuelfor heating, passive solar heating, and wind
power generation

Structuralreform oftransport

Reduction of travel distance by the establishment of compact cities, improvement of logistics efficiency, and modal shift of freight transport

Technical
innovation(improveme
nt of energy
efficiency)

High efficiency industrial boilers, high efficiency
industrial furnaces, high efficiency air conditioners, heat pump heating/hot water supply, highefficiency gas stoves, hybrid bicycles, and improvement of heat insulation capacity of buildings

Fuel shift

Shift from oil to natural gas

Reductionof emissions per
power generation

Changes in the composition of power sources inJapan as a whole (decrease in coal-fired power,
maintenance of nuclear power generation, andincrease in natural gas)

Waste
incineration

1734

8000

Environmentallyfriendly
actions

Passenger
Transport
Industry
Business
oprrations
Household

469
600
-477
2030withmeasures

The figure above shows GHG emissions in 1990,
2000, and 2030 with and without measures. BaU
stands for “Business as Usual” and represents the casewhere no additional measures were taken to reduce
CO2 emissions.
It is clear that the industrial sector accounts for alarge proportion in any cases. This is because of the
major presence of the secondary industry in Shiga’s
industrial structure. The fact indicates that the dramatic
reduction of total emissions will require measures in theindustrial sector.

The table above lists major measures to be introduced in the
scenario. Measures for the reduction of CO2 emissions areroughly classified into the fundamental reduction of energyconsuming actions (corresponding to “environmentally friendly
actions” and “structural reform of transport”), use of more energy
efficient equipment (“improvement of energy efficiency”), shifting ofenergy sources to those with less CO2 emissions (“renewableenergy” and “fuel shifting”), and changes in the composition of
power sources in Japan as a whole. The dramatic reduction ofemissions by tens of percent will require the introduction of thesemeasures in various stages of energy use.

11

spectively). When the amount of activities of each sector in 2030 is compared with the level in 2000, as indicated in “Shiga’s socioeconomic scenario in 2030,” the number of households is expected to increase by 19%
and the figure in the industry sector will decline by 4% due to changes in the industrial structure. In business
operations, the floor area will grow by 13% owing to an increase in production in the tertiary industry. Passenger transport is estimated to grow by 53% because of changes in the population composition and the increasein the ratio of licensed drivers while freight transport will decline by 14%. All sectors except freight transport will
increase or maintain the amount of activities, which serves as a factor to increase energy consumption and CO2
emissions.

Wide ranging measures
Based on the above estimate of amount of activities, we have determined the combination of measures toreduce GHG emissions by 50% in 2030 below the 1990 level. The measures are applicable to various stages
on energy use. Even if the high energy efficiency technologies available in 2030 are introduced to the maximum
extent possible and changes in CO2 emissions associated with the different composition of power sources at thenational level are taken into consideration, it will be still impossible to reach the target of 50% reduction. Nevertheless, with the addition of measures at the local level including drastic changes in transport structure, thepractice of environmentally friendly actions by almost all people, and substantial introduction of renewable energy, it will be feasible to reduce GHG emissions by 50% (66% below the 2030 BaU level).
Passenger transport

4500

18000

16367

16000

696
480

Passenger transport (million persons-km)

Freight transport
3937
4000
329

3397
302

356

2500

Marine transport

2784

1015

2000

2446

1500

475

1000

0

4500

738

577

84

71
2030BaU

262
378

71

2030w ithmeasures

3397
2990

198
283

62

1843
1525

2000

1347

1500
1000

1140

1022

893

100

99

500
0

224 21
2000

502
243

1840
365
269

Bicycle
261

10788

179

Motorcycle
Automob
ile
Bus

4860

Railway

6025

8000
6163

6000
4000

219

190

2000

3296

3828

2000

2030BaU

Walking

02030with

Passenger transport is estimated to increase by 53% in
the 2030 BaU scenario over the 2000 level due to changes
in the population composition and higher ratio of licensed
drivers. In the 2030 scenario with measures, the establishment of compact cities will shorten the travel distance,
which will be only 26% higher than the 2000 level. The ratioof automobiles will decline and that of railway and bicycles
rise as a result of changes in means of transport.

Specialty goods

74

230
322

10000

Railw ay

3937

3000
2500

Trucks for
personal use

10670

13538

measures

2000

4000
3500

1144

Trucks forbusiness use

12000

348

124

2030BaU

Miscellaneous
manufactured goods
Light manufactured
goods
Chemical engineering
goods
Metal and machinery
products
Mining products
Agricultural, forestry,
and fishery products

109

2030w ithmeasures

Estimated freight transport is shown by mean of transport(upper graph) and by type of cargos (lower graph). While
trucks for business use are prevailing in 2000, railway occupies a higher proportion in the estimate for 2030 with measures. By item, the graph shows the increase in the share of
agricultural, forestry, and fishery products.

Floor area of business operations
22.7

25
20.0
20

Others
9.8

15

10

5

7.7

Hospitals

0.7

1.0

3.4

3.2

4.0

3.8

Shops
Offices

4.2

4.9

2000

2030BaU

0

12

Schools

The amount ofactivities of thebusiness operation
sector is based onfloor area. It will
increase on thewhole due to production growth in
the tertiary industry. While the floorarea of hospitals
will increase owing
to the impact ofaging, that ofschools will decrease because of
low birthrate.

Realization of a low carbon economy

500

Freight transport (Mt-km)

2990

3000

Floor area of business operations (million m2)

Freight transport (Mt-km)

3500

14000

Scenario towards a sustainable society

Contribution of each measure
The figure below shows CO2 emission reductions by different types of measures. Efficiency improvement ofequipment accounts for the largest proportion, 37% of the total reductions, followed by changes in the compositionof power sources in Japan as a whole (21%). Among the categories of measures, those especially necessary for
local governments to take are the structural reform of transport, environmentally friendly actions, penetration of renewable energy, and forest absorption. The shares of them in reductions are 6%, 11%, 8%, and 6% respectively
and 30% in total. To realize a low carbon economy, Shiga Prefecture has to have original policies for encouraging
businesses and citizen to take these measures.
Forest absorption
Emission reduction

GHG emissions/reductions (1,000 t-CO2eq)

14000
12000
10000
8000
14369
6000

477kt-CO2eq

Structural reform of transport
459kt-CO2eq
Environmentally friendly actions
880kt-CO2eq
Renewable energy 615kt-CO2eq

12496

Fuel shifting 966kt-CO2eq

4000
6276

Efficiency improvement 3007ktCO2eq

2000

CO2 per power generation
1687kt-CO2eq

01990

2030BaU

2030with

Emissions

measures
6000

Re n e w a b leener g y
Hy dr opow er

5000

N u c le a r
pow erNatur al g as

Coal

Oil

Natural Nuclear Hydrogas
power power

Renewable TotalenergySupply (ktoe)
2000
2030BaU
2030(withmeasures)650 2643 1050
542 3043 1056

405
498

109
120

25
85

4883
5344

319 1160

886

361

87

231

3044

2000
2030BaU

13%
10%

54%
57%

22%
20%

8%
9%

2%
2%

1%
2%

100%
100%

2030(withmeasures)

10%

38%

29%

12%

3%

8%

100%

Ratio

Energy supply (ktoe)

Supply of primary energy

4000
O il
C oal

3000

2000

1000

0
2000

2 0 3 0 Ba U

2 0 3 0 w it hme a s u r e s

In the supply of primary energy in whole Shiga, oil represents the largest share of 54% in 2000. This is becauseof demands for oil in the industry sector and prevailing demands for automobiles in traffic. Without measures taken,
it is estimated that the supply of primary energy would increase by 9.4% in 2030 from the 2000 level. If measures
were taken, on the other hand, the supply would decline by approximately 37% below the 2000 level. Renewableenergy will represent 8% while the share of oil declining to 38%.
It is estimated that CO2 emissions from energy can be reduced by 44% in total through the reduction of final
energy demands by approximately 32% as a result of various measures as well as shift to less carbon intensive
energy sources such as renewable energy and natural gas.

13

List of measures
SectorMeasureHousehold Energy efficiency of equipment

Business

Reduction

Improvement rate of approximately 0.8% perannum; Selection of more energy efficient products at the time of replacement
Start of penetration

551

Selection of high heat insulation level at the timeof newly building, remodeling, and changing
housesSelection of biomass at the time of replacement ofheating appliance
Installation at the time of newly building and remodeling houses
Start of penetration, and education
Continuous expansion
Continuous expansion

55

Penetration at 90% of houses

Biomass heating

Penetration at 10% of households

Passive solar heating

Penetration at 10% of households

Energy saving actions
Photovoltaic power
Solar water heater
Other
Total in households
Energy efficiency of equipment
BEMS (business energy
management system)
Heat insulation level in business buildings
Biomass heating
Energy saving actions

Penetration at almost all households
Penetration at 20% of households
Penetration at 20% of households

Achievement of the next-generation heatinsulation level in 90% of houses

Improvement of efficiency by 36% in total
Introduction to 90% of buildings

2000 8.6％→25.9%
2000 55.5％→39.4%
2000 4.9％→0.9%
2000 30.9％→33.7%

Selection of more energy efficient products at thetime of renewal of facilities
Selection of less carbon intensive fuel at the timeof renewal of facilities

Reduction of average distance of intra-city Prevention of extension of urban area, and vitalitravel by 25%
zation of urban centers
Improvement of average fuel efficiency of Selection of cars with high fuel efficiency at thepassenger cars by 60% (penetration oftime of the purchase of a new car
hybrid cars at 90%)
Share of railway:36% (31% in 2000) Shares Development of public transport (improvement ofof bicycles and walking: 16% in total
convenience) Development of sidewalks, bicycle
roads, signals, etc.
Penetration rate of 10%
Start of introduction in some parts

Biomass fuelOthersTotal in passenger transport
Enhancement of logistics
Reduction of transport per production by
Development of distribution centers, etc.
efficiency
30%
Modal shift
Substitution of railway transport for freight Development of railway for freight transport
for 50% of road transport to distant prefectures
Substitution of lake transport for 10% of the Planning and development of the ideatransport within the prefecture
Biomass fuelPenetration rate of 10%
Start of introduction
OthersTotal in freight
Reduction of CO2 emissions
per power generation
Forest development
Management of all artificial forests in Shiga Establishment and execution of the maintenancePrefecture
plan; and financing for the maintenance of forests
Recycling of waste
Improvement of the recycling rate of plastic Promotion of separated collection and reuseby 36%

Total

39
39

156
54
99
89
1144
Improvement rate of 1% per annum; Promotion of443
investment in energy saving
47

90% of energy saving buildings in all build- Selection of high heat insulation level at the time
ings
of new construction
Penetration rate of 10%
Start of penetration
Penetration at almost all business establish- Start of penetration, and education
ments
Installation at 15% of buildings
Expanded penetration
Improvement of efficiency by 28% in total

60

31
19
43
12
79
674
846
883

1729
215
788
633
633
193
36
1865
51
194

75
150
470
1687
477
48
8094
kt-CO2eq

14

Realization of a low carbon economy

Public transport, bicycles,
and walking

OthersWhat should be done now to achieve the status

Improvement of efficiency by 30% in total

HEMS (home energy management system)
Heat insulation level inhousesPhotovoltaic power
Other
Total in businesses
Industry
Energy efficiency of equipment
Fuel shift
Natural gas
Oil
CoalElectric Power
Total in industry
Passenger Compact citytransport
Improvement of fuel efficiency of automobiles

Freighttransport

Status to be achieved by 2030

Scenario towards a sustainable society

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment
Various functions of the Lake Biwa environment
Lake Biwa has various functions for not only human beings but also other creatures. Some measures to improve such functions of Lake Biwa have synergic effect with each other, while some have trade-off relations. For
example, planting on lakeshores to improve water quality also contributes to the conservation of the ecosystem.
On the other hand, depending on the way of planting and management, it can have negative impact on landscape.
Therefore, a strategy based on comprehensive assessment is required.
We have focused on the three functions of supply of water resources, maintenance of the lakeshore ecosystem,and provision of recreational sites with beautiful landscape, which are important in the examination of Lake Biwa,
and set respective targets for the functions: “restoration of water quality,” “conservation and rehabilitation of thelakeshore ecosystem,” and “conservation and rehabilitation of beautiful lake areas.”

Restoration of water quality
Current water quality
The water quality of Lake Biwa has shown no sign of improvement despite of the many efforts made to conserve it, and the level of contamination still exceeds the environmental standards except the phosphorus level in
the northern part. While red tides, which were observed in 1977 for the first time and have occurred almost
every year since then, are on a declining trend, water blooms appear every year due to the advanced eutrophication of the lake water.

Scenario to meet the target
In 2000, the amounts of inflow loads of COD (chemical oxygen demand), TN (total nitrogen), and TP (total phosphorus) in Lake Biwa were estimated to be 16.2, 6.7, and 0.38 ktons/year respectively. Through a wide range ofmeasures to improve the water quality, it is expected that the inflow loads of COD, TN, and TP from pollutant
sources can be reduced to 7.7, 3.3, and 0.09 ktons/year respectively.
Measures to meet the target
Measures in households (reduction of COD by 88%, TN by
50%, and TP by 92%)
The amount of discharge will be greatly reduced throughefforts in households such as kitchen management and reuseof rainwater and bathwater. The sewerage coverage will be
increased to 96%. Efficient facilities to collect phosphorus fromsewage sledge and generate biogas will be constructed.
Measures in the industry (reduction of COD by 60%, TN by
47%, and TP by 74%)
The manufacturing industry will substantially reduce thegeneration of loads from the sources through thorough improvement of production process efficiency and recycling rate.
All effluent will be directed to the sewage system for treatment.
All livestock waste will be returned to farms to reduce the application of chemical fertilizers to farms and the amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions.
Measures related to rain falling on the lake surface(reduction of COD by 15% and TN by 15%)
Actions such as local production for local consumption andintroduction of IT will reduce the movements of people andgoods. With the sidewalks, bicycle roads, and the new public
transport system developed to reduce dependence on cars,
people will use cars less. This will reduce NOx emissions fromautomobiles. In addition, greening of wastelands and roads toprevent pollutants from rolling on the ground and regulations
on exhaust gas from automobiles and factories will improve theair quality and reduce organic matters and nitrogen falling on
the lake surface.

Measures related to non-point sources (reduction of COD
by 44%, TN by 71%, and TP by 85%)
Buildings will install rainwater retention facilities to reduce
initial discharge of loads from urban area at the time of rainfall.
Greening of wastelands and development of green belts alongroads will enhance underground infiltration of rainwater andreduce the discharge of pollutant loads. In particular, pollutant
loads will dramatically decrease with the pavement of roads
with permeable materials to promote underground infiltration of
rainwater, regular cleaning of the surface and drainage channels, and installation of equipment to collect and purify effluent
from the surface. The establishment of compact cities will limit
the conversion of forests and farms to housing/industrial sites
and consequently maintain the area of agricultural and forest
land. With environmentally friendly agricultural practices infarms such as the reduction of fertilizer application and repetitive use of drain water as well as through management of forests including proper thinning, the discharge of pollutant loads
from farms and forests will be dramatically reduced.
Measures related to rivers include the renovation of all rivers with natural materials to use the functions inherent to nature such as purification by vegetation for the reduction of pollutant loads.
Measures in the lake
The population of reeds and other vegetation will be restored on the lakeshores, and dredging will be also implemented in some parts to reduce elution from the lake bottom.

15

Load flows into Lake Biwa
18

16.2

COD

Load flows into LakeBiwa(kt/y)

16
14

7

1.9
0.1

8
6

7.7

4

1.6
0.1

3

0.6
1.6

2

0.4

0.3

1
0.7
0.3
0.5

0
2000

2030

Livestock
Factories
Households

0.12

3.0

0.6
0.3

0.4

0.6

0.9

4.4
4.0

0.38
0.02
0.02

0.4

3.3

2

4

Groundwater
Landuse5
8.0

Rainfall on the Lake surface

TP

0.5

6.7
0.7

6

12
10

TN

8

1.8

0.4
0.2

0.2

0.1

0.02
0.05

0.09
0.16

0.02
0.02
0.02 0.007
0.01
0.01

2000

2030

0.9
0

0.0
2000

2030

Method to calculate load flows

Sept ic tank
Sept ic tank f or night soil only

Inflo w lo a d

Ot hers

Groundw ater
Rainf all on the lak e s urf ac e

The estimated load flows into Lake Biwa are shown in the figure. Firstly, we set 2000 as the reference year, andthe values on load activities causing the generation of pollutants (population covered by each type of sewage treatment facilities, industry, land use, natural conditions, etc.) were developed and sorted based on GIS (geographicalinformation system) and various environmental information on the basin. In the calculation of effluent loads frompoint sources of pollution, the value on each pollution source was multiplied by the generation load factor to determine the generation load in the basin, and then estimated in consideration of the removal rate in each treatment
process. Meanwhile, the amount of effluent loads from non-point source of pollution (except groundwater) was determined by multiplying the value on different load activities by generation load factor. Finally, the amount of load
flows into Lake Biwa was estimated on the assumption that effluent loads flow into Lake Biwa via rivers and in consideration of the percentage of river water reaching the lake. However, loads from sewage treatment plants, rainwater on the lake surface, and groundwater were assumed to flow directly into Lake Biwa.

16

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment

Flow into riv ers

Direct inflow

paddy fields, fields, forests,
urban areas

Effluent load

Land us e

Ret urn to f arms

Fact ories

Generation load

Indust ries

Non-poi nt s ourc es

Liv est ock (swine/c attle/ poultry )Direct inflow

Night s oil treat ment plants

Generation load fact or

P oi nt s ourc es

Hous eholds

A g ri cu lt u ral se ttl e m e n t d rai n a g et re at m e n t f a ciliti e s

Rem ov al ratio by type (f orm) of treatm ent facilities

Sew age t reat ment plants

Scenario towards a sustainable society

List of measures to reduce inflow loads
SectionHouseholdIndustry

MeasureSewerage coverage
Kitchen management
Use of soil trench system and reuse oftreated effluent in agricultural settlement
Reuse of rainwater and bathwater
Connection to sewer system fortreatment

Status to be achieved by 2030
Sewerage coverage of 96% in the Lake Biwa
catchment area
Penetration at all households

Reductions
by measure(ton/year)
COD TN
TP
1903

499

91

1502

337

43

Application rate of 100%

64

45

13

Penetration rate of 50%
Connection of all unconnected effluent (85% of all effluent) tosewer system for treatment

313

72

8

715

175

28

Dairy
farming

Use of animal waste on farms

Application rate of 100%

18

6

9

Land use

Compact city

Diversion of 20% of building sites, wastelands, and roads togreen space

249

43

3

Among building sites (55% of whole urban area), application
rate of 30%
Among building sites (55% of whole urban area), application
rate of 20%
Among roads (6% of whole urban area), application rate of50%
Among roads (6% of whole urban area), application rate of50%
Among roads (6% of whole urban area), application rate of
20%
Among wasteland and other sites and roads (45% of wholeurban area), application rate of 20%
Among effluent from wasteland and other sites and roads(45% of whole urban area), application rate of 30% except
the effluent treated in the other measures

231

30

2

58

12

1

16

3

0

16

3

0

6

1

0

79

26

1

156

25

2

0

276

22

Among rice fields, application rate of 50%

599

108

5

Among fallow rice fields (2% of whole rice field area), application rate of 50%

12

2

0

Application rate of 42%

505

230

4

Among effluent from land use, application rate of 50%

494

162

7

Among effluent from land use, application rate of 50%

0

629

23

Application rate of 100%

987

324

15

Reduction of travels by car and penetration of
low-emissions vehicles à Rate of reduction of theatmospheric concentration level by the improvement of the
air quality

373

199

0

Reduction by planting of reeds over an area of 260 ha (COD
75, TN 55, and TP 4.8 (tons/year))
Reduction by the measure(COD 20, TN 27, and TP 1.8 (tons/year))
Reduction by the measure(COD 30, TN 20, and TP 0.5 (tons/year))

75

55

5

20

27

2

30

20

1

Application rate of 70% in terms of production value

385

169

15

Application rate of 70% in terms of number of animals

367

190

6

Urban area
Rainwater retention and infiltration facilities in buildings
Greening of roof area
Cleaning of roads
Cleaning of drainage channels
Pavement with permeable materials
Development of green belts (securing ofgreen space)
Urban area effluent purification
facilities
Farm

Rivers, etc.

Reduction of fertilizer application
Repetitive use of drain water (including
cyclic irrigation andirrigation shared between different rice
fields)Purification of water quality by use of
fallow rice fields
ForestProper management including proper
thinning
Direct purification of river water (reservoirs,
vegetation purification,
contact purification, etc.)
Improvement of sediments (dredging in rivers
and attached lakes)
River development with natural
materials

Rain falling on
the lake sur- Improvement of the air quality
face
OthersApplication rate of 100%In the lake
Vegetation (reed) purification
Dredging
Water weed mowing
Reduction of the generation load factor
Industry
Dairy faming

17Conservation and restoration of the lakeshore ecosystem
Current status of the lakeshore ecosystem
Lake Biwa is one of the oldest lakes in the world and a reservoir of species with more than 2,000 species of fauna andflora including dozens of indigenous species. However, it is reported that two
thirds of the indigenous species in Lake Biwa have been endangered recently.
The identified possible causes include deteriorated water quality, hypoxic bottom water in the northern part, destruction of the aquatic terrestrial transitionzone providing habitats for many fauna and flora species, separation of migratory corridors for aquatic creatures between Lake Biwa and attached lakes, rivers, water courses, and rice fields, alteration of lakeshores, and the increase inforeign species. Among them, the decrease in the area of reed communities,
which has shrunk to half in comparison with the level around the year 1955, hassignificant impact because they are important as habitats and spawning/nesting sites for fish and waterfowl.

Scenario to meet the target
2000

The current area of reed communities on the shores of
Lake Biwa is approximately 130 ha. The target is to restore
them and double the area to approximately 260 ha, the level in
1955. This will also double the area of habitats for waterfowl
from the current level and increase the number of species andindividuals of nesting waterfowl (figure on the right). The following methods will be adopted to conserve and develop reed
communities according to local conditions:2030･ Existing large-scale reed communities with many species ofnumber of speciesof nesting waterfowl

Reed communities in the lake areas are part of the originallandscape representing the unique scenery of Lake Biwa, and also
provide habitats for fish and waterfowl. For example, nearly half of
the indigenous fish species in Lake Biwa has relations with reed
communities. It is considered that reed communities need to havea certain area for the breeding of various bird species including
waterfowl, which play crucial roles in the wetland ecosystem aspredators.
Thus, we have focused on the area of reed communities on thelakeshores as a requirement for the maintenance of the ecosystem. While reed communities are scattered on the lakeshores in
Lake Biwa, it is thought that the expansion of the community size

Number of species of nesting waterfowl

Reed communities and waterfowl
87
65
y = 0.7558Ln(x) + 3.5423

4

R2 = 0.6755

3
2
1
0
0

2

4

6

8

10

Area of each reed community (ha)Source: Prepared based on Sugawa (1996)

18

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment

waterfowl will be managed to prevent the area from decreasing.
･ In the small communities with no or only few nesting birds,
projects will be implemented to increase the area of thecommunities by about 45 ha.
･ In the areas with no reed communities, reeds will be newly
planted mainly on lakeshores covered by sand or naturalstones to develop approximately 85 ha of communities.

Scenario towards a sustainable society

Conservation and restoration of beautiful lake surrounding areas
Current status of the landscape around the lake
The areas around Lake Biwa (lake surrounding areas) have been part of the beautiful landscape and used bypeople in various ways. But they have been losing sandy shores and reed communities due to the reclamation of
attached lakes and lakeshore development. While Lake Biwa has a shoreline of 235 km, the ratio of natural lakeshores declined from approximately 49% in the 1970s to about 41% in the 1990s.
According to the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on landscape, natural components of landscapeare preferred to artificial ones in most cases, and “beautiful lake surrounding areas” represent approximately 32% in
the current landscape (the figure on the left of the next page).

“Scale” to measure the beauty of landscape
While many aspects of the beauty of landscape are subjective, a certain “scale” to measure the beauty of landscape is required for assessing the aspects as objectively as possible and setting targets for the future. For thispurpose, we conducted a questionnaire survey on photos taken in various locations on the shores of Lake Biwa,
and prepared a “scale” of from 0 to 100 to correlate the beauty of the landscape around the lake*1 with componentsof the landscape (figure at the lower left).
Based on the results of the analysis of the questionnaire, the impact of each component of the landscape on theassessment score is shown in the figure at the lower right with the average score(53.9) of all photos as the reference point. It is clear that artificial components have negative impact while natural factors have positive impact.
However, “emergent plants” have been judged as negative factors in this landscape assessment.
The current landscape around the lake was assessed. The contour of Lake Biwa was divided into 500-meter
meshes (405 meshes in total), and the components of landscape included in each mesh under the current situation(year 2000) were identified. Then, each mesh was graded based on the “scale” mentioned above, and the results
were obtained as shown in the figure on the left of the next page. When a mesh with the score of 62.5 or more isdefined to be a “beautiful lake surrounding area”*2, such meshes represent approximately 32% (130 meshes in total).
Non-beautiful lake area0

50.0

Beautiful lake area
62.5

75.0

Score

Reference point
53.9
Nontraditional townscape-6.8
Traditional townscape
2.7
No townscape
1.9
Presence of roads and cars
-9.3
No presence of roads and cars
2.7
No presence of trees andfoot of mountains-11.1
No presence of parks andgreen space-1.2

Presence of trees and foot of mountains
4.2

Presence of parks and green space
5.3

Rocky lakeshore
32.0*1: Respondents of the questionnaire rated the beauty of the components on ascale of five levels (not beautiful; not very beautiful; no opinion; rather beautiful;and beautiful). A score of 0, 25, 50, 75, or 100 was given to the respective
levels of the scale, and the average score of each photo was calculated with
100 being highest.
*2: Because the score was 62.5 or more when a component was judged to be“rather beautiful” or “beautiful” (mean value of 50 (score for no opinion) and 75(rather beautiful)), the score of 62.5 or more was set as the condition for being a“beautiful lake surrounding area.”

19

Sandy lakeshore
2.8
Lakeshore covered bynatural stones-0.3
Lakeshore with concrete,wave-dissipating blocks, etc.
-5.7
Presence of emergent plants-6.0

Gravel lakeshore
12.1

No presence of emergent plants
0.9Scenario to meet the target
Setting the doubling of “beautiful lake surrounding areas” by 2030 as the target, we have discussed the scenario
to meet it. With efforts such as conversion to landscape-conscious townscape, transformation of artificial lakeshores to semi-natural lakeshores, and the development of parks, approximately 65% of the lake areas, double ofthe current ratio of about 32%, will be “beautiful.” While “beautiful lake surrounding areas” are currently concentrated to the northern part, such areas will spread over the whole region as a result of the scenario with the improvement of the landscape in the populated area around the southern part of the lake as well.
2000

2030
Score

The measures to improve the beauty of the landscape around the lake*3 are shown in the table below. As a result of these measures, the scores of lake areas will rise as in the figure above, and thenumber of meshes representing “beautiful lake surrounding areas” will increase to 263.
Components of landscape
Surrounding
TownscapeTransport
Land use
Lakeshore
Lakeside

Form oflakeshore
Parks andgreen space

Measures and Status to be achieved by 2030
Renovate half of the nontraditional townscape based on traditional construction
methods in consideration of the landscape around the lake.
Reduce roads and cars adjacent to the lake by half.
Plant trees on 75% of the lake surrounding areas where there is currently nofoot of a mountain or tree.
Replace lakeshores covered by concrete, wave-dissipating blocks, etc. withlakeshores covered by natural stones or sand.
In the meshes where lakeshores covered by natural stones or sand have beencreated as in the scenario mentioned above, develop parks and green space on
the lakeside.

*3 As emergent plants have a function to purify water and also serve as habitats and spawning sites, approximately 260 ha ofreed communities including existing ones will be planted on lakeshores covered by natural stones or sand (comparable to thelevel in 1955).

20

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment

Measures to improve the landscapeScenario towards a sustainable society

Establishment of a recycling system
Municipal waste
In 2030, people will have very different styles of working and consumption from now, and rentals and leases onan as-needed basis will be preferred to purchase of goods in the mainstream lifestyle. People will have more leisure time and spend it for activities such as waste collection in a group and waste separation at home. We haveestimated the amount of landfill waste based on such conditions on waste generation. It is assumed in the estimatethat citizens will seek the establishment of a sound material-cycle society through active involvement in waste reduction and recycling activities and the conditions for the treatment facilities will remain status quo.
When the population changes in Shiga Prefecture and the decrease in generation factor as a result of the use ofrentals and leases are taken into consideration in the calculation of waste generation, it is possible to reach the target of reducing landfill waste by 75% in 2030 through the maintenance of recycling, intermediate treatment, andlandfill facilities at the current level as well as increased cooperation of the public for waste recycling. Specifically,
waste generation will be reduced to 450,000 tons through the reduction in consumption, and the emission will befurther reduced by 100,000 tons through group separation and collection efforts among communities. Under these
conditions, we have made assumptions including the establishment of a reuse- and recycling-oriented society, public efforts to increase direct recycling, and improved efficiency of recycling facilities.

Measures on municipal waste

Citizen・Making efforts to reduce useless consumption and decrease waste generation to 880g (emission
level:700g) per person and day
・Use of rented or leased consumer durables
・Recycling of 500g per person and day through spending leisure time for waste separation

Businesses and local governments, etc.
・Financial support for rental and lease businesses
・Sales of only recyclable goods, establishment of recycling routes, and development of efficient recycling plants
・Improvement of recycling efficiency in composting and recycling facilities by 5%
・Reduction of waste delivered to other intermediate treatment facilities by 5%
Generation and landfill of municipal waste
Kt 600
500

509
4.9

0.4
60

400
千トン

444

自家処理量
Treated at home
減量化量
Reduced

345
300

再生利用量
Recycled
260

200

100

集団回収量
Group separationand collection

39
28.9
92

100.8

Landfill
最終処分量

23

0
2000年

2030年

21

Industrial waste

千トン

We calculated the generation of industrial waste byGeneration and landfill of industrial waste
type according to the estimated production by sector in
2030. Then, the amount of recycling and reduction was
Kt
5017
achieved based on the assumed reduction of industrial
5000
waste by type and expected progress and penetration of4203
treatment technologies.
4000
減量化量
ReducedLandfill waste can be reduced by approximately 75%
4000
2371
from 286,000 tons in 2000 to 70,500 tons in 2030. Valu有償物量
Valuableable waste refers to the amount of the waste sold as raw
1950
1894
materials, and it is necessary to increase the ratio of
3000
valuable waste by around 10% with measures including
Recycled
再生利用量
259
the establishment of the network of such trades between
198
156
2000
manufacturers in and outside Shiga Prefecture in order to
Landfill
最終処分量
reduce landfill waste.
2315
Organic waste from sewage and other sectors can be
1664
1910
1000
greatly reduced in volume by dehydration, but the ratio ofrecyclable part in such waste is small. Potential recycling
286
technologies include composting and methane fermenta146
71
0tion process. The landfill of waste plastics and debris,
2000年
2004年
2030年
which is generated in construction, manufacturing, andother industries in a large volume, as well as waste glass and pottery can be reduced through the promotion of recycling. For this purpose, it is important to separate waste in the sites where it is generated. While the recycling
rate*1 of industrial waste is higher than that of domestic waste, for the further reduction of landfill, businesses are
required to make additional efforts including the improvement of resource efficiency in production.
*1: Recycling rate: the ratio of industrial waste in the input of recycling process, defined as (recycling + reduction) / generation.

List of measures on industrial waste*2 Landfill reduction effect: mount of the landfill reduced by the increase in the recycling rate in 2030

22

Establishment of a recycling system

Recycling rate Landfill(2030) reduction
Type of industrial
effect*2
Examples of the measures
withwithout
waste(1,000meas- meastons)
ures
ures
Ash
Use in soil conditioners (coal ash), sewage treatment agents, and snow melting agents
17.6%
50.0%
2.1
Organic sludge
Composting, anaerobic digestion, methane gasification, and carbonization
99.7%
99.7%
0.0
Inorganic sludge
Use in subgrade materials, backfill materials, soft soil conditioners, water-retentive soil, and 96.9%
98.0%
13.1
glass materials
Waste oil
Reuse of lubricating oil and use as fuel, recovery of solvent and paint, and use of cooking oil
98.5%
99.0%
0.4
as fuelWaste acid
Recovery of semiconductor etchants, and reuse of waste acid
99.2%
99.5%
0.1
Waste alkali
Reuse of waste alkali by concentration treatment
99.1%
99.5%
0.2
Waste plastics/rubber Material and thermal recycling of synthetic resin, synthetic rubber, and waste tire
75.7%
94.0%
33.4
Waste paper
Paper recycling, use in civil engineering and construction materials, use in agricultural materi- 86.8%
95.0%
0.9
als, and use as fuelWaste wood
Use as timber, processing into building materials, carbonization and gasification, chemical 92.2%
98.0%
7.6
treatment, and composting
Waste textile
Reuse of fiber, separation and recycling of component materials, and melting and reformation 89.0%
95.0%
0.0
of synthetic fiber
Animal/plant
Food production, anaerobic congestion, methane gasification, use as feed/fertilizer, and use of 98.8%
99.0%
0.0
residues, etc.
minerals in soil conditioners
Waste metal
Use of scrap, separation of rare metal, and extraction and use of hazardous metal elements
94.4%
96.0%
1.3
Waste glass/pottery Collection of cullet, reuse of glass bottles, and use in tiles/blocks, ultralight aggregates, and 81.4%
92.0%
12.3
asphalt pavement
Slag
Collection of metal, use in cement, concrete aggregates, ground conditioners, and use for 94.8%
98.0%
2.1
road construction and filling
DebrisScreening and recycling of construction waste, and use in road pavement materials
97.8%
99.0%
13.6
Dust
Use in cement and concrete, subgrades, ground conditioners, aggregates, and agricultural 43.3%
90.0%
0.7
materials
Animal waste
Use as organic fertilizers, carbonization, and methane gasification
100.0% 100.0%
0.0
Mixed waste
Mechanical and manual separation, reuse of parts, and melting and slagging of shredder dust
39.4%
90.0%
14.7

Research methodology
Our research team aims to study the scenario to realize sustainable Shiga and propose the method to realize
it. For the purpose, we decided to set the environmental targets for 2030, identify measures to meet the targets
based on the assumption of the future society, and present the policies necessary for the promotion of the measures. We also developed various estimating tools to obtain necessary quantitative information. They consisted ofmacroeconometric tools and socioeconomic/environmental impact snapshot tools, which can estimate populationand number of households, gross product in the prefecture, time budget, industrial structure, employment, business buildings, passenger and freight transport, energy consumption, GHG emissions, water pollutant load generation and inflows, and waste generation and landfill at present and in future in a consistent manner to assess
the effect of environmental measures. As a long period of more than two decades was covered, we firstly set
environmental targets and socioeconomic conditions to be achieved. Next, we examined the social mechanism,
technologies, and policies necessary to realize the social conditions. We established a scenario to realize it
based on the technologies currently in practical use or expected to be widespread by 2030 as well as the potentially feasible policies.
The specific research procedure is shown in the figure below. The page numbers in the figure indicates thecorresponding sections of this booklet. Firstly, we determine the targets representing the vision of sustainable
Shiga (1). Secondly, quantitative target values are set for each of the targets (2). The levels of the target values
are decided based on international discussion of global environmental problems and the conditions in Shiga Prefecture. Next, among the targets, the levels of environmental load emissions (GHG emissions, waste landfill, andwater pollution load discharge) greatly depend on the conditions of social and economic activities. Therefore, weestimate social and economic indicators in future, and for this purpose, qualitatively describe the images of different fields such as industrial conditions, transport and urban area, rural area, and health and welfare based on theassumption of people’s sense of basic values in future (4). Then, with the estimating tools we developed, thespecific values of the social and economic indicators are estimated based on the social images identified in 4 (5).
Under them, we estimate the environmental load emissions (6), and identify the level of the introduction of measures necessary to meet the environmental targets (7). The measures needed on the landscape and ecosystem in
Lake Biwa are directly determined based on the differences between the current status and the targets. We will
extract and organize policies for the promotion of the measures identified in the process and propose them as apolicy model (8).

Research procedure
1. Decision of targets (p1 and p2)
Realization of a low
carbon economy

Establishment of arecycling system

Revival of the Lake Biwa environment

Water quality

Landscape

Ecosystem

Ratio of beautiful lake
areas

Area of reed
communities

2.Setting of indicators (p1 and p2)
GHG emissions

Waste landfill

Pollutant inflow loads

3. Collection and development of environmental measures (p14, p17, p20, p21, and p22)

4. Description of the socioeconomic assumption (p7)

5. Estimation of social and economic indicators (p7 to p10)

6. Estimation of environmental load emissions (p11 to p22)

7. Identification of environmental measures (p11 to p22)

8. Proposal of a policy model to promote the measures (p3 to p6)

Members of Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team (in alphabetical order)
Koji Amano (College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University)
Takeshi Fujiwara (Hall of Global Environment Research, Kyoto University Graduate School of
Global Environmental Studies)
Yuzuru Matsuoka (Hall of Global Environment Research, Kyoto University Graduate School of Global
Environmental Studies)
Masaaki Naito (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute)
Koji Shimada (College of Economics, Ritsumeikan University)
Yoko Shimada (Faculty of Engineering, Setsunan University)
Koichi Tsutsumi (Jikan Kobo)
SupportMichiko Yamaguchi and Junji Izumi (Lake Biwa and Environmental Policy Office, Water Policy
Administration Division, Department of Lake Biwa and the Environment, Shiga Prefecture)
Go Hibino and Hiroyuki Akiyama (Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.)Kei Gomi (Hall of Global Environment Research, Kyoto University Graduate School of Global
Environmental Studies)
Secretariat
Toshihide Takada, Jaegyu Kim, Yuichi Sato, and Takashi Iwakawa(Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute, Shiga Prefecture)

March 2007
Shiga’s scenario towards the realization of a sustainable society－Summary of a quantitative scenario study on the establishment of asustainable society in Shiga Prefecture－
Edited by Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team◆
[Inquiry]
Secretariat of Shiga Prefecture Sustainable Society Research Team
Systems Analysis Div., Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute,
5-34 Yanagasaki, Otsu, Shiga 520-0022 JAPANTEL: +81-77-526-4802 E-mail: info@lberi.jp