Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: Progress or Status Quo for Drought
Monitoring, Assessment, and Preparedness?
Donald A. WILHITE
School or Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
dwilhite2@unl.edu

Abstract
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It is theconsequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period oftime, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors such as high temperatures,
high winds, and low relative humidity are often associated with it in many regions of the world andcan significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Projected changes in climate state and variability,
especially the occurrence of extreme climatic events such as drought, are of particular concern today
because of their potential impact on food security in many nations, especially those where watersupplies are already scarce.
Many people consider drought to be largely a natural or physical event. In reality, drought, like othernatural hazards, has both a natural and a social component. Drought risk is best defined as a
combination of these two components, exposure and vulnerability. Exposure to drought can becharacterized by the historical climatology of a region, i.e., the frequency, severity, and duration ofprevious drought episodes, including an analysis of trends or changes in climate state and/or its
variability. With the projected increase in drought occurrence for many regions, there is concern
about whether a region’s drought climatology is indicative of the future for water management andplanning purposes.
Impacts are a key indicator of vulnerability. Therefore, conducting a vulnerability assessment throughan analysis of the historical impacts associated with previous drought episodes represents an excellent
measure of societal resilience. These assessments when completed for regions, communities,
population groups, and others will provide critical information on whom and what is at risk and why.
These assessments, when integrated into the drought mitigation planning process, can enhance theoutcome of the process by identifying and prioritizing specific areas where progress can be made inminimizing risk. Since societies are constantly changing, vulnerabilities are also changing. Thus,
each drought occurrence will result in differing impacts resulting from these changing vulnerabilities.
A key question for drought mitigation and preparedness planning is determining how or if societal
changes are increasing or decreasing societal vulnerability.
One of the trends associated with recent drought events has been the growing complexity of drought
impacts. In the past, drought impacts have been linked most closely to the agricultural sector,
reducing the capacity of many nations to be food secure. Today, the impacts associated with drought
are more far-reaching, touching many other sectors including energy, transportation, recreating andtourism, urban water supply, and the resilience of ecosystems. These impacts are often an indicator ofunsustainable land and water management practices. It has been demonstrated that drought assistanceor relief provided by governments and donors encourages land managers and others to continue thesepractices. It is precisely these existing resource management practices that have often increased
societal vulnerability to drought (i.e., exacerbated drought impacts). This approach to droughtmanagement may result in decreased resilience of individuals and communities and an increased
dependence on government. One of the principal goals of drought policies and preparedness plans isto move societies away from the traditional approach of crisis management, which is reactive in nature,
to a more pro-active, risk management approach. The goal of risk management is to promote theadoption of preventative or risk reducing measures and strategies that will mitigate the impacts offuture drought events, thus reducing societal vulnerability. This paradigm shift emphasizes
preparedness, mitigation, and improved early warning systems (EWS) over emergency response andassistance measures. Many governments and others now understand the fallacy of crisis management
and are striving to learn how to employ proper risk management techniques to reduce societal
vulnerability to drought and therefore lessen the impacts associated with future drought events.
There has been considerable progress towards improved drought mitigation and preparedness in theUnited States over the past 25 years. Although the United States has fallen short of the adoption of anational drought policy, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of states with drought plans.
The formation of the National Drought Mitigation Center in 1995, passage of the National Drought
Policy Act of 1998 by the U.S. Congress, the recommendations of the National Drought Policy
Commission in 2000, and passage of the National Integrated Drought Information System Act in 2006
have all contributed to this progress and are signs of a changing paradigm for drought mitigation.
However, even with this increased attention to improved drought early warning, mitigation, andpreparedness, much remains to be done.
The presentation will discuss the science of drought and the various elements of drought management.
Progress in the United States and other regions over the past 25 years to move away from thetraditional crisis management approach to a more risk-based management approach will also bechronicled. The presentation will also provide a roadmap for future drought mitigation and policy
development that must take greater advantage of the windows of opportunity associated with future
drought episodes and the impacts of climate change on water supplies and other natural resources.
Recent international initiatives in integrated drought management will also be highlighted. Hopefully,
the lessons learned in the United States will be transferable to other nations striving to improve it
management of drought and other extreme climatic events.