Currently, Vietnamese Government responds to the challenge of cli‐mate change through a number of decisions such as “Na onal Target
Program to respond to Climate Change” (Decision 158/QD‐TTg, 2008),“Na onal Climate Change Strategy” (Decision 2139/QD‐TTg, 2011),“Na onal Green Growth Strategy” (Decision 1393/QD‐TTg, 2012), and“Plan to Manage GHG Emissions and Carbon Trading Ac vi es to theWorld Market” (Decision 1775/QD‐TTg, 2012).

and vision beyond 2020” (Decision 568/QD‐TTg, 2013), two scenarios
are developed for the socio‐economic vision of HCMC by 2030 with the
projec on of energy consump on and CO2 emission in energy sectors
such as Power genera on, Transporta on, Residen al, Commercial andIndustry. In which, in Business‐as‐Usual scenario (BaU) we do not con‐sider the CO2 emission reduc on target. Meanwhile, in CounterMeas‐ure scenario (CM), some countermeasures are proposed that might beappropriate for HCMC’s climate change mi ga on ac ons in the above
men oned sectors. In CM, the target is to reduce 20% of total emissionin BaU, following the na onal target decided in Decision 1393/QD‐TTg.
To meet this target, we propose 5 ac ons as shown in Table 1.

Under the na onal context, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) issued the“Climate Change Ac on Plan by 2015” (Decision 2484/QD‐UBND,
2013). Moreover, HCMC is developing a proposal for “Climate Change
Ac on Plan (CCAP) in the 2016‐2020 period, with a vision towards
2030” (follows Decision 1474/QD‐TTg, 2012). This Ac on Plan is neces‐sary and should be integrated with the middle‐ and long‐term masterplan of socio‐economic development, specific sectoral development
plans (such as transporta on, industry, power, agriculture, etc.) as wellas water and waste management.

Informa on from many domes c sources is used to calibrate the pa‐
rameters for base year 2011 and Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) is ap‐
plied for the future projec on in target year 2030. In BaU, under the
rapid growth of driving forces such as popula on, transport demand,and industrial ac vi es, the total final energy consump on increases 4
mes and CO2 emission increases 4.5 mes compared to 2011.

This brochure is one of the outputs of the research collabora on be‐
tween Asian‐Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) team in Japan and Univer‐sity of Natural Resources and Environment (U.NRE) with Departmentof Science and Technology (DOST) in HCMC, Vietnam. We expect thisbrochure is useful for researchers and policy‐makers who are interest‐
ed in developing the CCAP and can support the vision of building green
growth for HCMC.

In CM, the total direct CO2 emission reduc on in HCMC is 34.2 MtCO2,
without coun ng the reduc on from grid power. In which, energy eﬃ‐
ciency improvement is one of the main countermeasures with 69% of
the total reduc on. The energy saving behavior through appropriate
use of energy devices contributes to reduce 13% of total direct reduc‐on, followed by fuel shi with 11%. Moreover, the modal shi in pas‐
senger transport with the increasing share of public vehicles (bus, MRT,taxi) contributes to reduce 6%. The contribu on of renewable energies(such as biofuel, CNG and solar) helps to reduce 1%.

Based on the targets in “Master Plan for Socio‐economic Developmentof HCMC ll 2020 with vision to 2025” (Decision 2631/QD‐TTg, 2013)
and “Master Plan for Transporta on Development of HCMC by 2020

Table 1: CO2 emission reduc on by sectors and ac ons (ktCO2) in order to meet the 20% reduc on target
SectorAgriculture and Industry Commercial
Low carbon actions
Action 1. Green agriculture and industry
9,309
Energy efficient equipment and fuel shift
Action 2. Green house and building
6,578
Energy efficient equipment and fuel shift
Action 3. Diffusion of energy saving behavior
2,181
Appropriate use of energy device
Action 4. Smart transportation system
Energy efficient vehicle and modal shift
Action 5. Growth of renewable energy
25
Solar, biofuel, and CNG
Total
9,309
8,784

1

Residential

Passenger transport Freight transport

Total
9,309

4,910

11,489

2,339

4,520
3,597

4,870

8,467

24

163

159

370

7,273

3,760

5,029

34,155

Energy consump ons

CO2 emission

Unit: ktoe

Year

SectorCoal
Oil
Gas Biomass Electricity
Total
Agriculture
0.2
14.9
0.0
0.0
0.7
15.8
Industry
1,697.0 1,069.9 116.6 444.7
639.5 3,967.7
Commercial
63.1
582.1
0.0
0.5
199.1
844.8
110.2
979.0
0.0 970.2
477.4 2,536.7
2011 Residen al
Passenger transport
0.0 1,450.7
0.0
0.0
0.0 1,450.7
Freight transport
0.0
588.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
588.1
Total
1,870.5 4,684.7 116.6 1,415.3
1,316.8 9,403.9
Agriculture
0.6
40.7
0.0
0.0
1.9
43.2
Industry
7,855.3 5,556.4 615.5 2,473.9
3,170.0 19,671.1
Commercial
450.7 4,158.2
0.0
3.5
1,422.6 6,035.1
2030
Residen al
259.5 2,305.9
0.0 2,285.2
1,124.5 5,975.2
BaU
Passenger transport
0.0 3,349.2
0.0
0.0
11.3 3,360.5
Freight transport
0.0 2,808.6
0.0
0.0
0.0 2,808.6
Total
8,566.2 18,218.9 615.5 4,762.7
5,730.3 37,893.6
Agriculture
0.2
32.0
6.7
0.0
2.4
41.4
Industry
5,841.3 4,099.2 3,310.3 1,855.1
3,110.8 18,216.6
Commercial
288.9 1,916.3 834.1
0.0
1,050.4 4,089.8
2030
Residen al
56.1 1,196.0 741.2 1,260.8
1,139.1 4,393.3
CM
Passenger transport
0.0 2,004.3
45.9
37.4
33.9 2,121.4
29.8
0.8 1,163.9
Freight transport
0.0 1,133.4
0.0
Total
6,186.6 10,381.2 4,938.1 3,183.1
5,337.3 30,026.3
In 2030, Biomass includes the modern way of using rice husk, coconut cover, palm oil, etc.

Unit: ktCO2

Year

SectorAgriculture
Industry
Commercial
2011 Residen al
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Total

Coal
Oil
0.9
44.8
6,978.6 3,216.1
259.5 1,749.8
453.1 2,942.8
0.0 4,360.9
0.0 1,767.8
7,692.1 14,082.1

Gas
Biomass Electricity
Total
0.0
0.0
4.1
49.8
273.7 1,866.4
3,720.7 16,055.5
0.0
2.1
1,158.6 3,169.9
0.0 4,072.2
2,777.4 10,245.4
0.0
0.0
0.0 4,360.9
0.0
0.0
0.0 1,767.8
7,660.7 35,649.3
273.7 5,940.6

Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
2030
Residen al
BaU
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Total
Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
2030
Residen al
CM
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Total

2.5
122.3
0.0
0.0
32,304.2 16,702.2 1,444.8 10,384.0
1,853.4 12,499.5
0.0
14.8
1,067.3 6,931.6
0.0 9,591.9
0.0 10,067.5
0.0
0.0
0.0 8,442.5
0.0
0.035,227.5 54,765.6 1,444.8 19,990.7
1.0
96.3
15.7
0.0
24,021.7 12,322.0 7,770.2 7,786.5
1,188.3 5,760.5 1,957.9
0.0
230.8 3,595.2 1,739.8 5,292.2
0.0 6,024.7
107.6
0.0
0.0 3,406.9
0.0
0.0
25,441.8 31,205.5 11,591.2 13,078.7

16.7
141.6
27,874.7 88,710.0
12,509.7 26,877.4
9,888.0 27,478.7
99.8 10,167.3
0.0 8,442.5
50,388.9 161,817.6
16.0
129.0
20,583.3 72,483.7
6,476.5 15,383.1
6,703.6 17,561.6
224.0 6,356.4
5.1 3,411.9
34,008.5 115,325.7

Acronyms and Abbrevia ons

Work procedure
Statisticalinformation
Legal documents

1. Collect relevant
information

Other information
sources

2. Discuss withrelated departments

Energy Balance
Table

3. Prepare data input

Social Accounting
Matrix

4. Integratebase year’s data

AIM
BaU
BRT
CC
CCAP
CM
CNG
DOST
EBT
ExSS
GDP
HCMC
IEA
IGES
IOT
KU
LCC
MHIR
MRT
NIES
PDP7
SYB
toe
U.NRE

 Background information

ExSS Socio‐economic vision Energy related vision

5. Analysis ofcurrent status andBaU projection
Information sharing
and exchange with
HCMC

AIM/Waste Waste related vision

6. Design of Low Carbon HCMC intarget years and estimation of
GHG emission reduction potential
7. Design of Low Carbon
Actions for HCMC

Technical report of Low
Carbon HCMC 2030

Brochure of Low Carbon
HCMC 2030

This brochure has not covered the Waste sector

Team Informa on
KYOTO UNIVERSITY (KU)
TRAN Thanh Tu*
Yuzuru MATSUOKA*

Asian‐Pacific Integrated ModelingBusiness as UsualBus Rapid Transit
Climate Change
Climate Change Ac on PlanCounterMeasure
Compressed Natural Gas
HCMC Department of Science and Technology
Energy Balance Table
Extended Snapshot Tool
Gross Domes c ProductHo Chi Minh City
Interna onal Energy Agency
Ins tute for Global Environmental Strategies
Input‐Output Table
Kyoto University
Low Carbon City
Mizuho Informa on and Research Ins tute
Mass Rapid Transit
Na onal Ins tute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Power Development Plan 7
Sta s cal Yearbook
ton of oil equivalent
HCMC University of Natural Resources and Environment

E‐KONZAL
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (DOST)

Yuki OCHI*
Tomoki EHARANGUYEN Ky Phung
TRAN Xuan Hoang

NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, JAPAN (NIES)
UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT (U.NRE)

Kei GOMI
Junichi FUJINO
Toshihiko MASUINGUYEN Dinh Tuan

INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STRAGETIES (IGES)*We welcome feedback and sugges on. Please contact:

Shuzo NISHIOKATomoko ISHIKAWA

Yuzuru MATSUOKA: matsuoka@env.kyoto‐u.ac.jp
TRAN Thanh Tu: thanhtu311083@gmail.com
Yuki OCHI: ochi.ekonzal@gmail.com

MIZUHO INFORMATION AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE (MHIR)
Go HIBINO
Kazuya FUJIWARA

First Edi on
August, 20146

Detail of Low Carbon measures
Table 5: Detail emission reduc on by countermeasures in each sector
Sector

Low carbon
ac on

Agriculture
and Industry

Ac on 1

[1]

Ac on 1Ac on 2
Commercial[2]

Implementa on intensity

Energy eﬃcient equipment
Cogenera on, ver cal sha brick kiln
Boiler process control, waste heat recovery
High eﬃciency motor
Fuel shi from coal, oil and tradi onal biomass to natural gas
Total
Energy eﬃcient equipment
High eﬃciency air condi oner
High eﬃciency water hea ng, solar water hea ng
High eﬃciency cooking stove
Compact fluorescent, LED ligh ng
High eﬃciency refrigerator
Energy eﬃciency improvement of other home applianceAc on 3

Appropriate use of energy device, energy management system

Ac on 2Ac on 5

Fuel shi from coal, oil and tradi onal biomass to natural gas
Solar power genera on
Total
Energy eﬃcient equipment
High eﬃciency air condi oner
High eﬃciency water hea ng, solar water hea ng
High eﬃciency cooking stove
Compact fluorescent, LED ligh ng
High eﬃciency refrigerator
Energy eﬃciency improvement of other home applianceAc on 2
Residen al[3]
Ac on 3

Appropriate use of energy device, energy management system

Ac on 2Ac on 5

Fuel shi from coal, oil and tradi onal biomass to natural gas
Solar power genera on
Total
Energy eﬃcient vehicle
Fuel‐eﬃcient car, eﬃcient load management and improve‐
ment of road system
Fuel‐eﬃcient bus, eﬃcient load management and improve‐
ment of road system
Fuel‐eﬃcient train, eﬃcient load management and im‐provement of road system
Fuel shi from oil to biofuel and CNG
Modal shi to public transport
Walk
BicycleMotorbike
Car
Bus
Train
MRT
Avia on
Total
Energy eﬃcient transporta on

Ac on 4Passenger
transport

Low‐carbon countermeasure

Ac on 5

[4]
Ac on 4

40% of exis ng technology will be replaced

50% of exis ng technology will be replaced

Emission
reduc on (ktCO2)
3,867
1,172
935
3,335
9,309
2,840
1,053
120
1,216
417
459

Energy intensity will be improved by 10% com‐pared to BaU

2,181

Genera ng capacity will be increased to 25MW

473
25
8,784

50% of exis ng technology will be replaced

658
819
1,651
618
412
740

Energy intensity will be improved by 10% com‐pared to BaU

2,339

Genera ng capacity will be increased to 25MW

12
24
7,273

50% of exis ng technology will be replaced
From 1.80MJ/per.km to 0.93MJ/per.km
50% of exis ng technology will be replaced
From 0.41MJ/per.km to 0.19MJ/per.km
30% of exis ng technology will be replaced
From 0.38MJ/per.km to 0.17MJ/per.km
Modal share in transport demand
12% (2011), 12% (BaU) and 12% (CM)
9.8% (2011), 9.8% (BaU) and 9.8% (CM)
71% (2011), 51% (BaU) and 34% (CM)
4.0% (2011), 15% (BaU) and 10% (CM)
3.0% (2011), 10% (BaU) and 29% (CM)0.01% (2011), 0.05% (BaU) and 0.10% (CM)
0% (2011), 2.0% (BaU) and 5.0% (CM)0.03% (2011), 0.15% (BaU) and 0.15% (CM)

1,376
286
3
163
1,932

3,760

Fuel‐eﬃcient car and truck, eﬃcient load management and 50% of exis ng technology will be replaced
4,853
improvement of road system
From 4.1MJ/ton.km to 0.93MJ/ton.km
Fuel‐eﬃcient ship and train, eﬃcient load management and 30% of exis ng technology will be replaced
17
improvement of road system
From 0.76MJ/ton.km to 0.09MJ/ton.km[5]
Ac on 5 Fuel shi from oil to biofuel and CNG
159
Total
5,029
Eﬃciency in coal‐fired power plant will be
Improvement of genera on eﬃciency
improved from 35% (2011, BaU) to 45% (CM)
Grid
Transmission loss will be improved from 10%
power
Reduc on of transmission loss
(2011, BaU) to 5% (CM)[6]
Change in energy mix
Using same assump on in BaU and CM
Total
12,336
Total reduc on amount (without grid power) [=1+2+3+4+5]
34,155
Total reduc on amount (with grid power) [=1+2+3+4+5+6]
46,492
Note: The reduc on poten al from grid power is not counted for HCMC. Thus, the actual poten al of CO2 emission reduc on in HCMC is 34,155 ktCO2 in 2030.
Freighttransport

Ac on 45

Socio‐economic vision
The es ma on of social and economic indicators is based on Decision2631/QD‐TTg. Moreover, we also consider the progress of imple‐
men ng the urban transport master plan (Decision 568/QD‐TTg),
par cularly the construc on of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) and Bus
Rapid Transit (BRT). Therefore, we develop one Business‐as‐Usual inwhich socio‐economic targets of the city can be achieved and only
50% of the urban public transport is fully constructed in the target
year. In countermeasure case (CM) when proposed measures are
implemented to reduce the CO2 emission, we assume that MRT and
BRT system will be constructed fully as planned. Table 2 shows theresults of main socio‐economic driving forces for base year 2011 andtarget year 2030.

Outputs
As shown in Table 2, total output increases more than 5 mes inwhich the industrial sector s ll dominates with more than 60% in2011 and nearly 56% in 2030. However, due to the higher growth ratecompared to other sectors, the share of commercial sector increases
from 39% in 2011 to more than 44% in 2030. Agriculture s ll keeps asmall share of less than 1%.
In industry, the construc on, food and tobacco, machinery, chemical
are main sectors contribu ng to nearly 19%, 13%, 12%, and 9% of
industrial output, respec vely (Figure 1).

Table 2: Main socio‐economic indicators in HCMC
Unit
persons
householdmil. Dongs
bil. Dongs

2011
7,590,138
1,789,630
67
509,334
5,671
199,184
304,479
1,432,120
11,149863,569
557,403
265,588

4,500

2030
2030/2011
10,869,565
1.4
3,623,188
2.0
256
3.8
2,783,178
5.5
14,0762.5
960,5474.8
1,808,555
5.9
7,495,140
5.2
27,6702.5
4,149,719
4.8
3,317,751
6.0
1,513,850
5.7

Construction
Other manufaturing

4,000

Outputs (trillion Dongs)

Popula on
No. of households
GDP per capita
GDP
Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
Outputsbil. Dongs
Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
Final consump on bil. Dongs
Gross fixed capitalbil. Dongs
192,128
1,095,127
5.7
forma onExportbil. Dongs
665,966
3,796,006
5.7
Importbil. Dongs
614,347
3,621,806
5.9
Passenger
mil.per.km
68,796145,1212.1
transport demandFreight transport
4.8
mil.ton.km
73,485350,944
demandExport and Import include both interna onal and domes cTransport equipment
Machinery

3,500

Other metal
Rubber and plastic

3,000

Coke and petroleum

Other

Printing

2,500

Wood
2,000

Wearing apparel
Mining and quarrying

1,500

Iron and steel
Non‐metallic mineral

1,000

Chemical and petrochemical
Paper

Other

500

TextilesFood and tobacco

0
2011

2030

Figure 1: Outputs by industrial sub‐sectors

Popula on and households

Transport demands

As shown in Table 2, the registered popula on (night‐ me popula on)
in HCMC increases 1.4 mes compared to 2011, reaching nearly 11
mil. people in 2030. By assuming the household size in 2030 is 3 per‐sons/household (smaller than 4.2 of 2011), the total number ofhouseholds increases around 2.0 mes, reaching more than 3.6 mil.
households in 2030.

Due to the increasing popula on and industrial ac vi es, thetransport demand in 2030 also increases rapidly with more than 2
mes of passenger transport demand and nearly 5 mes increase of
freight transport demand compared to 2011 (Table 2).
In passenger transport, there is a rapid increase of demand on car(including taxi) to nearly 6 mes, even motorbike s ll dominates. The
share of public transport (bus and train) increases from 3% in 2011 to
12% in 2030BaU and reaches 34% in 2030CM due to the contribu onof BRT and MRT system as urban transport planning (in passenger
transport, car includes taxi).

Macro economy
Following the targets in the socio‐economic master plan, it is es mat‐ed that the GDP of HCMC will increase 5.5 mes in 2030 compared to
2011. In 2011, the commercial sector dominates the GDP share with
60%, followed by industrial sector with 39%. In 2030, due to the rapid
growth rate in commercial compared to other sectors, the share ofcommercial in total GDP increases to 65%, while the share of industry
reduces to 35%, with a small share of less than 1% of total GDP is fromagriculture.

In freight transport, the total demand increases to nearly 5 mes
compared to 2011 mainly by car and waterway. Since we have no
informa on about the plan for freight transport, we assume that theshares of freight transport modes in 2030 are the same as in 2011, in
which car contributes to more than 53%, followed by waterway withmore than 46% contribu on.

As the biggest city in Vietnam, the GDP per capita in 2011 is around 67
mil. Dongs (more than twice of na onal average), and it increases
nearly 4 mes to reach 256 mil. Dongs in 2030 due to the rapid GDP
growth.

100%
90%

Aviation

80%

MRT

70%

Train

The final consump on in 2030 also increases nearly 6 mes compared
to 2011, in which main consump on is from households for industrial
commodi es and services while the government consump on ismainly for science, technology, and other services.

60%

30%

Motorbike

Together with the rapid growth of GDP, there is the increase in invest‐
ment on industrial sector, export and import with around 6 mes
higher than in 2011. The main export commodi es are wearing appar‐el, food and tobacco, manufacturing; meanwhile the main importcommodi es are chemical products, machinery, and coke and refined
petroleum products.

20%

Bicycle10%

Walk

Waterway

Bus

50%

Train

Car

40%

Car

0%
2011 2030BaU 2030CM

2011 2030BaU 2030CM

Freight
Passenger
Figure 2: Modal share in transport sector

2

Projec on of energy consump on and power genera on
Final energy consump on

Table 3: Final energy consump on by sectors (ktoe)

The energy intensity by GDP reduces from 18.5 toe/bil. Dongs in 2011
to 13.6 toe/bil. Dongs in 2030BaU and 10.8 toe/bil. Dongs in 2030CM
due to the lower increasing rate of energy consump on compared to
the rapid growth of GDP. This reduc on follows “more than 20% re‐duc on of energy intensity” men oned in Decision 2631/QD‐TTg(“Master Plan for Socio‐economic Development of HCMC”) (or 1% to1.5% reduc on per year as men oned in Decision 1393/QD‐TTg for“Na onal Green Growth Strategy”).

Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
Residen al
Passenger transport
Freight transport

2011 2030BaU 2030CM BaU/2011 CM/BaU
16
43
41
2.7
0.96
3,968 19,671 18,217
5.0
0.93
845
6,035
4,090
7.1
0.68
2,537
5,975
4,393
2.4
0.74
1,451
3,361
2,121
2.3
0.63
588
2,809
1,164
4.8
0.41

In 2030BaU, the total energy consump on increases 4 mes com‐pared to 2011, in which industry is s ll the main energy consumer
with more than 60% (5 mes increase), followed by residen al sector(15%) with more than 2 mes increase. Commercial has the highest
speed of energy consump on with more than 7 mes increase and its
share is nearly 14%. In order to meet the target of 10% CO2 emission
reduc on in energy sector, there is a huge energy consump on reduc‐on in transport and commercial sectors, about 50% and 30% of BaU,
respec vely while industry only can reduce less than 10% comparedto BaU (Table 3).

Total

9,404

Figure 3 shows the final energy consump on in industrial sector, inwhich non‐metallic mineral ac vity is the biggest consumer with 30%,
followed by tex les with 15%. Besides main industries shown in Figure
3, other industrial ac vi es (non‐classified in IEA’s EBT) accounts fornearly 40% of the total energy consump on in industry sector.
20

It is es mated that the power consump on will increase nearly 4.5
mes compared to 2011, reaching nearly 67 GWh in 2030BaU, withthe main consumer are industry (60%), residen al (20%) and commer‐
cial (19%). Due to the increasing use of electric vehicles, the power
consump on in transport sector increases in 2030CM compared to2030 BaU, while other sectors reduce their consump ons to meet theemission reduc on target.

18

30,026100%

Iron and steel

12Non‐metallic mineral

10

Chemical and petrochemical

8

Paper

6

Biomass80%

Wind
Nuclear

60%

Hydro
40%

Gas

Textiles

4

Oil

20%

Food and tobacco

2

0.79

The power supply for HCMC is mainly from the na onal grid. Thus, wefollow the structure of energy mix in power genera on as in the Na‐
onal Power Development Plan 7 (PDP7) (Decision 1208/QD‐TTg,2011), in which the contribu on of nuclear and wind power is around
10% and 5%, respec vely. Coal‐fired thermal power s ll dominates
the mix with nearly 59% (Figure 4).

Other

14

4.0

Power genera on mix

16

Mtoe

37,894Coal
0%02011 2030BaU 2030CM
Figure 4: Power genera on mix (following the PDP7)

2011 2030BaU 2030CM
Figure 3: Final energy consump on by industrial sub‐sectors

Projec on of CO2 emission
Similar to energy consump on, the emission by GDP also reducesfrom 70.0 tCO2/bil. Dongs in 2011 to 58.1 tCO2/bil. Dongs in 2030BaU
and 41.6 tCO2/bil. Dongs in 2030CM due to the rapid GDP growthcompared to the increase speed of CO2 emission. Meanwhile, theemission per capita increases from 4.7 tCO2/year in 2011 to 14.9 tCO2/
year in 2030BaU and reduces to 10.6 tCO2/year in 2030CM.

As the main energy consumers in industrial sub‐sectors, non‐metallic
mineral and tex les are the main CO2 emi ers with nearly 5 mes
increase compared to 2011, contribu ng to 21% and 14% of total
emission from industry, respec vely.
Chemical, paper, food and tobacco also contribute to 10%, 8%, and
7% of the emission from industry, respec vely. Meanwhile, Iron andsteel has the smallest amount of CO2 emission since this is not themain industrial ac vity in HCMC.

In 2030BaU, the total CO2 emission increases 4.5 mes compared to2011, in which the biggest CO2 emi er is s ll industry with 5.5 mes
increase, contribu ng to 55% of total emission. Residen al and com‐
mercial sectors contribute to nearly 17% (2.7 mes of 2011) and 16%(8.5 mes of 2011) of total emission, respec vely. Meanwhile, emis‐
sion from passenger transport increases more than 2 mes compared
to 2011 (6% of the total emission) and nearly 5 mes increase of emis‐
sion from freight transport (5% of the total emission).

90
80

MtCO2

70

Table 4: CO2 emission by sectors (ktCO2)
Agriculture
Industry
Commercial
Residen al
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Total

2011 2030BaU 2030CM BaU/2011 CM/BaU
50
142
129
2.8
0.91
16,055 88,710 72,484
5.5
0.82
3,170 26,877 15,383
8.5
0.57
10,245 27,479 17,562
2.7
0.64
4,361 10,167
6,356
2.3
0.63
1,768
8,442
3,412
4.8
0.40
35,649 161,818 115,326
4.5
0.71

Other

60

Iron and steel

50

Non‐metallic mineral40

Chemical and petrochemical

30

Paper

20

Textiles10

Food and tobacco02011 2030BaU 2030CM
Figure 5: CO2 emission by industrial sub‐sectors

3

CO2 emission reduc on by sectors
Figure 6 shows the amount of CO2 reduc on in CM case by each end‐
use sector in which the total reduc on is around 46 MtCO2. Since
HCMC consumes electricity provided by the na onal grid, reduc on
from grid power (12.3 MtCO2) is excluded from the direct reduc on by
HCMC. Within the direct reduc on in HCMC (34.2 MtCO2), industry
contributes to 28%, followed by residen al and commercial sectors
with 26% and 22%, respec vely. Meanwhile, transport contributes toreduce 24% of the total reduc on.

Reduc on in Commercial and Residen al [2+3]Assuming that 50% of exis ng technology will be replaced, the use ofenergy eﬃcient equipment such as air condi oner, water hea ng,
cooking stove, lightning, refrigerator, etc. contributes to reduce 6.1
MtCO2 and 4.9 MtCO2 in commercial and residen al sectors, respec‐vely. With 10% of energy intensity improvement compared to BaU,
the emission reduc on by using appropriate devices in residen al andcommercial are 2.3 MtCO2 and 2.2 MtCO2, respec vely.

If considering the reduc on from the viewpoint of ac ons/measures,
then energy eﬃciency improvement in all sector will reduce 23.5
MtCO2 (69% of total). The energy saving behavior in residen al andcommercial sectors contributes to reduce 4.5 MtCO2 (13% of total),followed by fuel shi from coal, oil, and tradi onal biomass to gas
with 3.8 MtCO2 (11% of total). The modal shi to public transporta on(taxi, bus, MRT) in passenger transport will help to reduce 1.9 MtCO2(6% of total). Moreover, the contribu on of renewable energies ac‐
counts for 0.3 MtCO2 (1% of total).

Fuel shi to natural gas is also one measure in these sectors in orderto reduce the emission from using coal, oil, and tradi onal biomass inwhich the total reduc on is nearly 0.5 MtCO2. At the 25 MW gener‐a ng capacity, the solar power also contributes around 25 ktCO2 foreach sector.

Reduc on in Transport [4+5]In both passenger and freight transport we consider the contribu onof load management and improvement of road system. In which,energy eﬃciency improvement in car, truck, ship and train is the main
measure in freight transport with more than 4.8 MtCO2 reduc on,under the assump on that 50% of exis ng technology will be re‐placed. Meanwhile, fuel shi from oil to biofuel contributes to reduce
0.1 MtCO2.

Detail of the reduc on measures for each sector is described in Table
5.
180
Grid
Grid power
power (12.3)

160

Freight
Freight transporttransport (5.0)

140

Passenger
Passenger transporttransport (3.8)

MtCO2

120

Commercial
Commercial (8.8)

162

80
60

Industry
Industry (9.3)

115

Agriculture
Agriculture (0.007)

40
20

On the other hand, in passenger transport, the main measure is themodal shi to public transport with reduc on is more than 1.9 MtCO2.
This reduc on amount can be achieved by assuming that the share ofbus, MRT, taxi will be 29%, 5%, and 5%, respec vely, following theurban transport development master plan (average share of public
transport is around 40%). The share of motorbike reduces from 71% in2011 to 51% in 2030BaU and reaches 34% in 2030 CM. Beside, energy
eﬃciency improvement contributes to reduce more than 1.6 MtCO2.
Fuel shi to biofuel and CNG also helps to reduce nearly 0.1 MtCO2.

Residential
Residential (7.3)

100

CO2
CO2 emission (115.4)

3602011 2030BaU 2030CM

Reduc on in Grid power [6]Figure 6: CO2 emission and reduc on poten al

In grid power, we consider the improvement of genera on eﬃciency,
reduc on of transmission loss, and the change in energy mix as main
measures for CO2 emission reduc on. In which, the eﬃciency im‐
provement in coal‐fired power plants will increase from 35% (in 2011
and 2030BaU) to 45% (in 2030CM), and the transmission loss will
reduce from 10% (in 2011 and 2030BaU) to 5% (in 2030CM).

Reduc on in Agriculture and Industry [1]As shown in Figure 6, industry contributes to reduce 9.3 MtCO2. In
which, the main measure is the energy eﬃciency improvement in
main ac vi es such as cogenera on and ver cal sha brick kiln (3.9
MtCO2), boiler process control and waste heat recovery (1.2 MtCO2),and high eﬃciency motor (0.9 MtCO2).

Following the PDP7, the contribu on of nuclear power and renewableenergies (wind and biomass) in the power genera on is nearly 20% in
order to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels (gas and oil). However,Vietnam s ll depends on coal power genera on with nearly 60%.The
reduc on of 12.3 MtCO2 will be counted for the whole Vietnam(under the na onal grid) rather than HCMC.

The other important measure for industrial sector is the shi in ener‐
gy use from coal, oil and tradi onal biomass to natural gas, as well as
the modern way of using biomass (rice husk, coconut cover, palm oil,etc.). This measure helps to reduce 3.3 MtCO2.

Rela on between proposed ac ons and decisions
This matrix shows the rela onship between the priority programs/projects for CC mi ga on in HCMC (picked from Ac on Plan for CC Adapta on andMi ga on towards 2015) (Decision 2484/QD‐UBND, 2013), measures in the green energy program (Decision 2305/QD‐UBND, 2012), and transport
development plan (Decision 568/QD‐TTg, 2013) for HCMC and key policy ac ons of our “Low Carbon Scenarios for HCMC, Vietnam 2030”.
Decision 2484/QD‐UBND
Decision 2305/QD‐UBND
Decision 568/QD‐TTg "Approval of Adjusting"Action Plan for Climate Change"Approval of Green Energy
the Transport Development Master Plan for
HCMC by 2020 with vision beyond 2020"
Adaptation and Mitigation towards 2015"
Program for HCMC by 2015"
Improve andDevelopment of Increase the share of
EnergyApplying Developing Replacing Renewablepublic transport (bus,modernize the
new andenergy plan savings in theandenergy efficient use
MRT, taxi)
transport
renewable
in HCMC
residential,
efficient of energy in renovating
infrastructure andcommercial, energies (solar
lighting
measures in enterprises
street lines
power, wind,industry,systemurban life
buildings, and energy fromwaste, biofuel)lighting

Planned actions in HCMC

5 actions and reduction amount (ktCO2)
in the "Low Carbon Scenario for
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietam 2030"
Action 1. Green agriculture and industry
Energy efficient equipment and fuel shift

Action 2. Green house and building
Energy efficient equipment and fuel shift

Action 3. Diffusion of energy saving behavior
Appropriate use of energy device

Action 4. Smart transportation system
Energy efficient vehicle and modal shift
Action 5. Growth of renewable energy
Solar, biofuel and CNG

9,309
11,489
4,520
8,467
370

4