72, Park Street, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
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e-mail: info@ihp.lk web: www.ihp.lk twitter: @ihplk

PRESS RELEASEEMBARGOED UNTILFOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACTDate: 28 March 2024
Time: 11:59 AM Sri Lanka Time

Secretary/Administrator
Email: info ‘at’ ihp.lk

TO CONTACT LEAD INVESTIGATOR
Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya
Email: ravi ‘at’ ihp.lk Twitter: @ravirannaneliya

NPP/JVP (44%) and SJB (30%) continue toconsolidate support in February 2024
IHP MRP General Election Voting Intentions Update February
2024
The latest estimates from IHP’s SLOTS MRP model (revised 01/2024) show modest increases
in support for NPP/JVP and SJB, with weakening support for the UNP and “Other” parties,
continuing trends since July 2023. NPP/JVP lead with 44% (+2) support of Sri Lankan adultvoters, followed by SJB with 30% (+1), the SLPP at 9% (+1), the UNP at 4% (-1), and ITAK at
4% (unchanged).

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The February estimates are provisional and are associated with a margin of error of 1–3% for
the four leading parties. Compared to IHP’s February release, IHP estimates of NPP/JVP andSJB support in Jan. 2024 were revised +2 and -1 points.

These estimates are for all adults and not for likely voters, and are based on the 01/ 2024
revision of the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model. IHP isworking on improving its likely voter model and will resume release of voting intent in likely
voters in a future update. But it should be noted that differences in voting intent shares
between all adults and likely voters have typically been 1–2% for most estimates in the past
two years.
This February 2024 update is based on 16,248 interviews conducted with adults across SriLanka since Oct. 2021, including 575 interviews carried out in Feb. 2024. IHP’s SLOTS MRP
methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about
respondents and their opinions – in this case, ‘If there was a General Election today, whichparty would you vote for?’– in a multilevel statistical model. It then uses a large data file thatis calibrated to the national population to predict voting intent in each month since Oct. 2021,
according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties(‘post-stratification’) at each point in time. The multilevel model was estimated 100 times toreflect underlying uncertainties in the model and to obtain margins of error.
Previous reports available from ihp.lk
Institute for Health Policy, March 2023, “IHP MRP Voting Intentions Estimates February
2023. Voters consolidate around the NPP/JVP, SJB and ITAK, with NPP/JVP taking a clearlead”, SLOTS Report #2023-06.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/publications/docs/SLOTSReport202306.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, April 2023, “Little change in voting preferences in March, withNPP/JVP maintaining a clear lead over SJB, amidst possible signs of a UNP rise. IHP MRPGeneral Election voting intentions update March 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20230419.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, May 2023, “NPP/JVP maintains a lead, but loses support to UNP
and other parties, whilst SJB flatlines. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions updateApril 2023”. Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20230525.pdf
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Institute for Health Policy, June 2023, “NPP/JVP support fell to 23% behind SJB on 26%,
whilst support for UNP and SLPP rises amongst likely voters during May 2023. IHP MRPGeneral Election voting intentions update May 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease202306301.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, July 2023, “Support for NPP/JVP and SJB fell, with evidence ofgrowing vote disillusionment with all established parties in June 2023. IHP MRP General
Election voting intentions update June 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20230727.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, August 2023, “Support for major parties changes little in July, with
NPP/JVP and SJB ahead, but large numbers of voters uncommitted. IHP MRP General
Election voting intentions update July 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20230821.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, September 2023, “NPP/JVP retain an edge over the SJB amongst
voters in August. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions update August 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20230925.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, October 2023, “NPP/JVP leads with 42% of likely voters, ahead of
the SJB (22%) and UNP (13%) in September. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions
update September 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20231023.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, November 2023, “Little change in voter intentions in October, withNPP/JVP consolidating its lead at 40%. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions update
October 2023”.
Available at: https://ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/IHPPressRelease20231123.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, January 2024, “NPP/JVP on 39% of all adults, ahead of SJB(27%) and SLPP (10%) in December ’23. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions
update December 2023”. Available at:https://www.ihp.lk/sites/default/files/press-release/IHPPressRelease20240126.pdf
Institute for Health Policy, February 2024, “NPP/JVP maintains lead in voting intentions, withcontinuing increase in SJB support. IHP MRP General Election voting intentions update
January 2024”. Available at:https://www.ihp.lk/sites/default/files/press-release/IHPPressRelease20240228.pdf

About IHP
IHP is an independent, non-partisan research centre based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The
SLOTS lead investigator is Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya of IHP, who has trained in public opinion
polling at Harvard University and has conducted numerous surveys over three decades.

Methodology details
SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached byrandom digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel ofrespondents who were previously recruited through random selection and face-to-faceinterviews. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and PostPage 3 of 4

Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputations to account for uncertainties in its modelling,exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
The February 2024 MRP estimates are based on 16,248 interviews conducted from 1 October
2021–24 March 2024, including 575 interviews conducted in February 2024. The margin oferror is assessed as 0.9–1.4% for the UNP, SLPP, SLFP, ITAK, SLMC, CWC, and 1.6–2.9%
for NPP/JVP, SJB and the “other” parties. A total of 100 bootstraps were used to estimate
margins of error.
MRP is a method that is increasingly used by polling firms in other countries to leverage small
samples, most notably by YouGov which used it to forecast results of the UK Brexit
Referendum and recent UK general elections. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample
matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status,education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 GeneralElections.

Funding
The SLOTS survey has previously been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK
National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka,and others. Current fieldwork is financed by the IHP Public Interest Research Fund and others.
The sponsors play no role in the study design, analysis, or interpretation of findings.
Furthermore, the survey findings do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of past andpresent funders. Interested parties can contact IHP for more detailed data and results.

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