13th IFNAT in Ooita

Phenomenon consistently seen in ground-breaking occurrences in all ages of modernhistory, and elimination of missing links of Northeast Asia
Mr.Ikuo Mitsuhashi
Vice-chairman of Northeast Asia Transportation Corridor Promotion (Non-profit organization authorized by Japanese Government)&1. Phenomenon consistently seen in ground-breaking occurrences in all ages of modern history
Head meeting of US and the DPRK was held, and they confirmed denuclearization of Korean
Peninsula, and guaranteed security of the DPRK. From now, Northeast Asia seem to shift strong
tensions to living symbiotically. Japan Sea (East Sea) that have had few shipping line services
crossing Japan Sea (East Sea) under political dark clouds during these decades, may have busy
maritime routes in near future. In this context, ground-breaking incident that destroy the existing
common sense, that is said as miracle, seems to take place. However, it is not clear whether theincident will be continued or instantaneous.
I would make deduction whether this phenomenon will be long-lasting or not, through analyzing
human being history for these two hundred years. There are many currents in flows of times. Mostof them disappeared in the lapse of time. However, some sustain themselves through ages. I try toidentify common current of times seen consistently in all ages. If we can evaluate that the move ofthe denuclearization above-mentioned is a phenomenon keeping up with the common current, wecan forecast the denuclearization will be continued in future. In analyzing, we would focus on
occurrences that had caused ground-breaking change of the global community. Those were occurreddiscontinuously for very short period. That is called miracle phenomenon.
In 18th century, European civilization was predominant in the world. In 19th century, most of theworld were invaded by imperialism, and many colonies were emerged in the world. Even China andIndia were suppressed as slaves under white people imperialism. Most of the people of the world
where despairs and turmoil were prevailed, were obliged to live with anxiety, fear and doubt under
domination of white people imperialism.
However, hereafter, in modern age, the following ground-breakings were occurred.

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*1868: Meiji restoration in Japan was undertaken.
It is incredible that the Japan could escape the state of being colonized. This is the first in theworld, practically speaking, for non-white states to be able to preserve independence. This incident
hit the spark of hope in the colonized world that were rife with anxiety, fear and doubt. This
restoration opened the gate of modern times in world history. Japan began self-governing foreign
trade immediately after finalizing national policy of completely closed-door for 260 years. The
reason is that patriots at the end of Edo era could get to know the global trend of times definitely
and risked their lives to upset the existing governance.
*1905: Japan won the victory in Japan-Russia war.
A non-white country overcame white one. Greater power of Europe was beaten by lessor power ofAsia by means of armed forces. The reason is that Japan understood well the global trend of times.
*In and after 19th century: Spread of scientific way of thinking in the world due to rapid progress ofscience and technology.
Electricity, machinery and medical science enabled productivity capacity of national economicproduction to remarkably increase, as a result of it, rapid increase of population was accomplished.
Many people got to know the truth through scientific knowledge, and they could get rid ofsuperstition that had constantly followed them around. Most of general people could get to obtain
their weapons called scientific way of thinking. Relieving anxiety and ability of disclosing hidden
truth made progressed remarkably and radically.
*1945: Human beings succeeded in inventing nuclear weapons, i.e. ultimately bomb in the humanbeing’s history.
One large city completely was destroyed due to only one bomb. Hereafter, nuclear bomb began tofunction as preventing expand of clashes between strong powers. A strong power country could not
make a large scale of war against another one, even if it desired.
*In 1970’s: Economic revival of Japan carried out. Asian Development Bank was established in
1966.
Japan that had renounced war since 1945 achieved the second economic power in the world
without relying on armed forces. Japan showed that it is possible to make peaceful and prosperous
country without invading another one.
*1991: Soviet Union collapsed.
Cold war between market economy and planned one ended. Soviet Union supervised based onplanned economy adopted free-market economy on its own initiative. At that time, every person
predicted that armed conflict including nuclear war between the two sides would take place soon.
However, as transparency of the times made progress, most of USSR people could get to knowsocial-economic situation of the Western countries where there was more affluent life than USSR.
As a result of it, they selected peacefully a way to more luxurious life without bloody revolution thatwas occurred in 1917, changing date from Tsar to socialism era.

2*2002: Birth of European currency in Europe.
European Union established by German, France and so on were allied and united economicallyand eventually could produce single currency through relinquishing mutual hatred lasting sinceancient era. The reason is that transparency to neighboring states had been advanced as much as
they could discharge their hatred.
*In 2010’s: IT (information technology) revolution, representative of smart phone, took place.
Transparency of global society through multilayered communications had remarkably spread up toordinary citizens. They could get to understand more deeply the situation and the response of theneighboring states counterparts than before, then elimination of fear and doubt that cause the war,
had been carried out.
*2015: Chinese economic recovery. Start of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
China that was recognized as being still last century began to take central position and functions
as a driving force in the world economy. China abandoned isolation strategy guided by Mao Zedong
in 1978 and adopted open-up and reform one initiated by Deng Xiao Ping, which had strengthenedsocial-economic connection with international communities. Because of it, China could succeed inrealizing the coexistence with many nations under the collaboration with advanced countries
including Japan.
Those incidents above-mentioned are miracle phenomena of the world for these 200 years. Here I
try to identify something that is seen, commonly and unmovably, in every miracle. Those are as if
something penetrating through the whole.
Those are ①spirit and action pursuing to more luxurious life. This is people’s target. And ②
development of degree of social transparency that is necessary to realize the target. Those haveflowed consistently in modern human being history, and the conducts impeding the movement havebeen removed. Behaviors that accelerate the move positively have gained victory.
‘Spirit and action pursuing to more luxurious life’ means that people place high value on
continuing their growth every day on private life, and on securing stable employment on localsociety. Their ultimate target is to make and leave peaceful society for descendant. In order toaccomplish the aim, change of the society are unavoidable. Though the society is advancing toward
the target, it is, fundamentally, very difficult to climb over conventional social framework and/orexisting institution. Then a conduct/thought changing conventional scheme are obliged to save theirenergy inside. Gradually the energy is accumulated up to uncontrollable level. Eventually theenergy causes abrupt explosive, which enable the society to raise on the upper step. Thisphenomenon is a miracle.
I would assess Korean Peninsula incident newly appeared last month from this viewpoint. TheDPRK knows well that if they began armed clash with US, it would be annihilated, then, taking into
account its descendant, this option would not be adopted by the DPRK. This means the DPRK neverpull the trigger of the war. On the other hand, US cannot carry out first strike due to strong
objection of the ROK and Japan. With respect to continuation of the current regime of the DPRK,US thinks this is option for the DPRK people and has a feeling of not going further. However, threatto US by use of nuclear bomb is unforgivable. US hopes abandonment of DPRK’S nuclear weapons
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shall be undertaken. Even if US admits continuation of the current regime of the DPRK, US thinks,I guess, the current of the times above-mentioned will change the mind of the DPRK’ people into one
of international common sense with the lapse of time. Consequently, US compromised with theDPRK with regards to security of the DPRK’s current regime.
Judging from the above deduction, I guess Korean Peninsula will shift from place of strain and fearto the one of peace and collaboration.
Therefore, I can indicate the following incident as one of miracle.
*2018: Start of denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.
The DPRK succeeded in manufacturing nuclear weapon and came within 1 inch of collision withUS. However, after the ROK’s mediation between two sides, the DPRK declared denuclearization.
In this context, I would forecast next miracles in global communities. We will be able to see
following two incidents for the next decades, taking into consideration a series of abrupt change inmodern history.
① Rapid economic progress of the DPRK may be seen in 10～20 years from now. It is foreseeable
that some of democratic institution may be introduced in the DPRK current regime.
② Change of dictatorship in the Communist Party of China. In world history, any dictatorshipgovernance came into deadlock due to propagation of corruption and injustice in the domesticworld. There is no exception. Therefore, it is possible to be seen that Chinese government will
peacefully abandon strict dictatorship through introducing national election as transparency ofthe society make progress.
&2. Elimination of missing links in Northeast Asia
When we have the prospect described as &1, what change will be emerged in Northeast Asia infuture? I would indicate important change from the viewpoint of tourism and transportation asfollows;
There have been two missing links in Northeast Asia. It is possible for them to be eliminated due tothe change of DPRK’s isolation policy.
One missing link A is current situation of little traffic roads connecting between South and North
Korea despite the North is situated in the center of Northeast Asia. The South has been like island
country for 70 years.
The second missing link B is that Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province has been landlocked for
70 years. They have no sea port despite they are located only 10km off from Japan Sea (East Sea) in
the most proximity spot.
Elimination of A means that the South Korea can connect China, Russia and Europe by land, andmake it possible South Korean railway extends all over the Eurasia Continent. In addition, South
Korean sea ports function as origin and destination points of Eurasian Railroad. International
competitiveness of South Korea’ transportation will be enhanced.
Regarding B, in order for Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province to use Japan Sea (East Sea),
they have to borrow the port of Rajin, North Korea, or port of Zarubino, Russia. However,Chinese-related cargo volume handled in the both ports has not increased due to some reasons, forsome decades, for example, poor facilities of port and railroad, and complicated rules different from4

China. UNDP has supported the Chinese initiative for a long time, however, Chinese endeavor has
not been fulfilled. If the North changes the diplomatic policy from military to peaceful mind and tryto pursue to promotion of economic growth, Rajin will play important role in Northeast Asia
economy, as seaport of Northern China, as if like role of the Hong Kong in Southern China.
Total population of Jilin and Heilongjian Province amount to 65 million. The foreign trade of bothprovinces will increase remarkably due to extension of foreign investment to Northern China. China
can gain a lot of profit through increase of trade. Not only China but Japan, South-North Korea etc.
can enjoy economic prosperity through trade with China. As a result of it, it is possible that great
exchange era will emerge in Northeast Asia. I want to say the era is ‘Great exchange era of Japan
Sea (East Sea)’. The main player of the Era will be North Korea and Northern part of China. Japanwill establish the maritime route (for instance, international ferry service) between Niigata, Rajinand Zarubino. Japanese major cities facing Pacific Ocean will have ties with Northern China
through North Korea.
Such economic development of Northern China and emerging the Great exchange era of Japan Sea(East Sea) will stimulate Russian national policy of ‘shifting Eastern’ that will greatly contribute tosocial stability of Russia.
The appearance of such phenomenon may be said as ‘miracle’ described in &1.

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