A Roadmap towards

Low Carbon Kyoto

2009 Oct.
Research Team of
Sustainable Society Kyoto

Introduction
The question of, “How to achieve a sustainable society?” is one that has
passed through various stages of discussions. Initially, it began with the clarification of the sustainable society concept, and then progressed to the qualitativeenvisioning of what a sustainable society would look like in the future. We have
now reached the stage where the roadmap to accomplish the target is drawn
out and defined as quantitatively as possible. This process is identified as“backcasting”. The public at large may not be familiar with this new method.
This is because; so far government programs have been using the “forecasting”
method, where the current scenario is analyzed to estimate the future scenario.
This pamphlet reports on a study conducted for the city of Kyoto using thebackcasting method. The basis for judgment and co-efficiency related to thefeasibility of preparing this roadmap involves a few uncertain elements which
need to be defined at the policy implementation stage. These elements include
the priority and continuity of numerous policies, the cost of measures and thedegree of complexity in terms of policy and the degree of progress in technicaldevelopment. In this study, these elements have been assigned values that arethought to be appropriate at this point in time, and calculations have been
made based on this. In order to establish these parameters accuracy, and enable
these values to be put to actual use in the related fields; a variety of data needs
to be gathered.
Although this study may include some uncertain elements in calculation, thisis the first Roadmap to be accomplished for a local government using the backcasting method.
It is our hope that the results of this pioneering effort will be one that willfind a widespread usage in the future for various plans to prevent global warming at the local government level.
The Research Team of Sustainable Society Kyoto is made up of volunteers,participating in a private capacity, who are interested in transforming Kyoto
into a low carbon society. Our activities are conducted in close cooperation with
Kyoto City and are based on the municipal government's policies and data, but
the results are not officially authorized by the municipal government. At present however, the Kyoto Municipal Government is pursuing activities that are
based partly on our achievements, and I believe that sooner or later these results will receive formal public recognition.
Masaaki Naito
LeaderResearch Team of Sustainable Society Kyoto

2

Contents
Overview of the Roadmap towards Low Carbon Kyoto

4

Kyoto in 2030: A Low Carbon City

6

Envisioning the Society in Qualitative Terms

6

Quantifying the Envisioned Society

7

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

8

Low Carbon Measures

8

Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

11

Low Carbon Measure Diagram

12

Action 1 Walkable City, Kyoto

14

Action 2 Kyoto-style Buildings and Forest Management

16

Action 3 Low Carbon Lifestyle

17

Action 4 Decarbonation of Industry

18

Action 5 Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy

19

Action 6 Establishment of a Funding Mechanism

20

Research methodology
Overview of Research Methodology

21

Stage 1

Defining Targets

21

Stage 2

Searching for a Roadmap

22

Statistical Data Collection and Estimation

3

22

Overview of the Roadmap towards Low Carbon Kyoto
What would Kyoto as a low carbon city be like? And who would have to do what to achieve this goal, and whenwould they have to do it? The achievement of a low carbon city would require city-wide debate and action. Moreover, a great deal of information would be needed with regards to societal development and low carbon technologies.
The Research Team of Sustainable Society Kyoto has constructed this Roadmap to a low carbon society for use
as a basis for this discussion. To forecast the future societies scenario; firstly,we assumed moderate economic
growth of about 1.3% per year and a gradual decrease in population (Table S-1). As a point of reference, we used
the most recent low carbon measure, entitled "Kyoto City Environmental Model City Plan of Action," which wascompleted in March 2009. The major findings are as follows.
1) It is technically possible to reduce CO emissions in 2030 by 40% or more as compared to 1990 (Fig. S-1). This2

will require the widespread adoption of actions far greater than the current situation; in the usage of highly
energy-efficient equipment, better-insulated buildings, use of renewable energy, energy-saving behavior andother measures.
2) A path exists where it will enable the necessary measures to be widely adopted in the 20 years between 2010
and 2030. If actions are promoted smoothly by 2025, 90% or more of the final measures will be able to be implemented (Fig. S-2).
3) In order for measures to be disseminated, incentives must be provided as Kyoto Municipal Government policies. Most of the incentives are already included in the measures currently being planned by Kyoto City.
4) Most of the entities that must take action in order to achieve actual reductions are citizens and companies in
the private sector. In line with this, the understanding and cooperation of the general public and companies in
the private sector will be needed in order for the policies induced by Kyoto City to be accepted and lead toaction.

Table S-1 Estimation result of scenario quantification in 2030

10000

8897

2005

2030/
2030
2005

9000

Population (104)

147

140

0.95

8000

No. of householdｓ (104)

65

65

0.99

GDP (bill yen)

6124

8305

1.36

GDP per capita (mill yen/capita)

4.15

5.94

1.43

Gross output (bill yen)

9938 13400

1.35

Primary industry

17

19

1.13

Secondary industry

2735

3542

1.30

Tertiary industry

6947

9507

1.37

Passenger transport volume (milｌ p-km)

9251

8192

0.89

Freight transport volume (milｌ t-km)

3484

4571

1.31

Commercial

8015
7768

CO2 emissions (kt-CO2)

7000

1740

1815

Freight
Transport
2420

1680

2204

Waste
incineration

4586
1674

4000
2080

Industry
Passenger
Transport

1826

6000

5000

Residential

1256

821

900

3000

2000

1689

1655

1276

1506
1000

566

756

258

474

577

1990

2005

2030 BaU

421

504
0

Figure S-1 CO2 emissions

4

819

349
2030 CMThis Roadmap is a joint effort by members of the Research Team of Sustainable Society Kyoto. The team is not
requesting for all these elements to be implemented. Rather, we want this Roadmap to serve as a springboard for
debates by many relevant parties regarding the path towards a low carbon society. From this point on, the debate
must focus on the following points in particular.
1) There are a combination of measures that can be taken to achieve a 40% reduction in emissions as compared
to 1990 levels in 2030. The combination shown here is only one example. The desirability of the measures should be debated by the participants from different viewpoints to enable the best possible measure
option to be later implemented in Kyoto.
2) This Roadmap has been created by envisioning which measures will be effective in leading to the dissemination of direct measures. However, these must be verified to determine whether or not they are sufficient.
Moreover, additional measures may be needed in the event that some measures are not effective.
3) Implementing measures will require considerable expenditures of funds and labor. Due to the informational
constraints, only the resources provided by the Kyoto Municipal Government for policy implementation were
evaluated for the purposes of this study. However, many of the measures will require funds that come directly or indirectly from the citizens and companies in the private sector. A study is needed to determine
whether this is within the acceptable range..
4) Many measures are not designed solely to reduce CO emissions. Since improved energy efficiency is also a
2

way of reducing costs, there is often a net economic benefit. Moreover, improvements in the use environment
for public transport also constitute an improvement in the convenience of transport. Such benefits other than
the reduction of CO emissions should also be considered.
2

Six Actions

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )

4000

461

3500

513

3000

644

2500
2000

722

1500

1453

1000
500
0
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Walkable City, Kyoto
Kyoto- style Buildings and Forest Development
Low Carbon Lifestyle
Decarbonation of Industry
Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy

Figure S-2 CO2 emissions reduction*1 (above) and the periodof time needed for implementation (below) of each action*2*1 Of the reductions in CO2 emissions, those resulting from measures in the electric power generation sector are not included here.
*2 Of the six actions, Action 6 "Establishment of a funding mechanism" is not shown in the diagram, as there are no emissions reductions associated with the measure itself.

5

Kyoto in 2030: A Low Carbon City
ture" has been enhanced. People believe in maintaining abalance between work and personal life and living fulfilling
lives overall while also working to contribute to society andthe community. However, the innovative spirit of Kyoto has
not changed, although the efforts sometimes do not workout, the city makes it a point to incorporate new technologies, products, and services.

Designing a roadmap towards the achievement of a low carbon city begins by drawing a picture of Kyoto in the year 2030.
Based on past and continuation trends of the current state ofaffairs, the major target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
by nearly half would appear to be unachievable. For this reason, we must begin by stepping back from the current situation and envisioning the future scenario in which the objective
has been already achieved in Kyoto.

Envisioning
Terms

the

SocietyinLifestyle
The population continues to age and decrease. The numberof people living alone has increased, and the size of households has decreased slightly. People value not only their jobs
but also the time with their family and participation in avariety of communal volunteer activities. All Household
members take part in doing housework. People use their freetime in various ways; however, many people spend it in thecity. People also continue educational courses that are in linewith their hobbies .

Qualitative

In order to study greenhouse gas emissions and low carbon
measures, we envisioned the social and economic situation in
Kyoto that constitutes a precondition for the achievement ofthese goals. There are a variety of possibilities for the direction of development in the Kyoto of the future, but for thisstudy we envisioned a society with moderate growth in which
the distinctive features of Kyoto are highlighted to an evengreater extent. We noted in qualitative terms the values, lifestyle, society & industry, tourism and city structure of the
Kyoto of the future.

Economy and industry
Many industries, both traditional and venture industries
have developed with high added value as a result of the distinctive "Kyoto Brand." The city's economy is supported bystate-of-the-art technology and tourism-related industries.
Demand for these industries has risen due to the desire ofpeople to spend their free time, and there has been growthin service industries related to hobbies, cultural pursuits andentertainment. Kyoto vegetables are popular nationwide,
however due to the limited land area, production is main-

Values"Spiritual richness" is more highly valued, and people aspireless to "efficiency, competition and vitality" than"therapeutic healing, measures and peace of mind." As aresult, Kyoto's stature as "the home of Japan's spiritual cul-

Indicator
Population makeup

Population distribution

Table 1 Quantitative assumption in 2030

Set Value
2030 estimates in "Future Estimated Population of Japan by Municipality andWard " (published in 2003 by the National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research) used
2 point reduction (20.2% -> 18.2%) in constituent ratio of inner city area
(Kamigyo-ku, Nakagyo-ku, Shimogyo-ku, Higashiyama-ku) and 2 point increase(24.3% -> 26.3%) in constituent ratio of western area (Nishikyo-ku, Ukyo-ku) as
compared to reference year

Average number of persons
2.15 (2.36 in 2000)
per household
Employed males: housework time 0.5 hour increase; work time 1 hour decrease; study, research, hobby, entertainment and volunteer activities 0.5 hourTime usage
increase Females: housework time 1 hour decrease; study, research, hobby,
entertainment and volunteer activities 1 hour increase
Males in their 60s: 70% (57% in 2000) 70s or older: 40% (18% in 2000)
Females in their 30s - 50s: 70% (52 - 58% in 2000) 60s: 50% (31% in 2000) 70s
Employment rate
ore older: 15% (7% in 2000)
4.5 point increase (86.4% - 90.9%) in percentage of expenditures on tertiary
Breakdown of consumption
industries

Part of Background Scenario Used as Basis
Progressive aging

High-level use of city centers restricted topreserve scenic beauty
Slight decrease in average size of household
Work time is comparatively short; housework is shared among family members;
continuing education is popular; volunteer
activities are considered important
Balance between work and private life
Increase in hobby, cultural pursuits andentertainment related services
Industries mentioned in the scenario werepredicted to have a high growth rate whileother industries were predicted to have a
low growth rate; overall growth rate wasExports

Growth at 1.43%/year: textiles, dyeing & finishing, commerce, entertainment
services, restaurant, inns and other accommodations, research
Growth at 1.17%/year: other industries

Other

Import ratio: same as reference year Government consumption expenditures : 1.3%/year growth Public-sector fixed capitalformation: same as reference year Labor productivity: growth at 2.7%/year for primary and secondary industries, 1.8%/year
for tertiary industries Commuting destination ratio: same as reference year Driver's license acquisition rate : 2005 acquisition rate for people in their 20s is continued

6in Japan were taken into account to establish quantitative conditions for estimation. Table 1 shows the conditions that were
established and the corresponding parts of the scenario. Thismodel estimated that the population would decrease 5%, from
1.47 million in 2005 to 1.4 million in 2030. Due to progressive
aging, the percentage of population aged 65 and older will increase to 28% (Fig. 1). As the number of persons per household
will decrease, however the number of households will remain
generally the same as the 2005 level (850,000) despite the decrease in population. As it is envisioned; with the steady decline
in population, the number of senior citizens and women in theworkforce would increase, therefore the demand for labor in theindustrial sector in the city will be met. In terms of industry,based on an annual economic growth rate of 1.3%, the growthrate in the demand for personal services is particularly high.
This is due to the envisioning of high demand for tourismrelated restaurants and accommodation businesses and so on.
With the decline in the population, the volume of passenger
transport is predicted to decrease 11% from the 2005 level. The
increase in the production of manufacturing industries, thevolume of freight transport is expected to increase by 31%.

tained at the current scale and is focused as a side business.
Progressively more food is produced and consumed locally,
and also produced and consumed when they are in season andhave the best flavor. There has been enormous growth in renewable energy use, energy-saving technologies, emissions
trading and other environmental businesses. The average annual economic growth rate for the economy as a whole is approximately 1.3%.

Tourism
Due to the effect of various incentive policies such as preservation of scenic beauty, the number of tourists to Kyoto has been
maintained at the current level of approximately 50 million,
even as Japan's population decreases. There has been a shift
from "quantity" to "quality" that includes, among other things,
a desire for authenticity in terms of traditional industries, andcultural arts, as a result, this has increased the average amountof money spent by each tourist.

City structure
The intensive use of the city center has been restricted in order to preserve scenic beauty, therefore the city structure has
not changed very much and has not become more compact.
The area of forests, farms and greenery has been maintained
at approximately the present level. Effective use of existingbuildings is being pursued, and the total floor area of buildings has remained roughly constant due to the population
decrease and height restrictions. The percentage of permanent
residential population (nighttime population) living in suburban areas has increased slightly.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Future greenhouse gas emissions were calculated based on twocases. The first case is the "business as usual" scenario.. Here,the configuration of energy demand and other greenhouse gas
emissions are maintained at the present levels.. As a result,changes in greenhouse gas emissions will happen only when
there are changes in the socioeconomic conditions. The secondcase is the scenario with “counter measures”. . This case envisions the socioeconomic conditions to be as of the business as
usual (BaU) case. However, it is assumed in this case, the emission reduction measures will be implemented until the low carbon targets are achieved. At the business as usual (BaU) case in
2030, emissions increased 11% from the 2005 levels to 8,897 ktCO2 (a 15% increase from 1990 levels). This increase is mostly
due to the increase in energy demand in the industrial and com-

Quantifying the Envisioned Society
Based on this scenario, a quantity estimation model (ExSS; fordetails, see page 21) was used to estimate integrated socioeconomic activities. The sections in the scenario that deal with theincrease and decrease of quantitative indicators were extracted
and the extent of past changes and the values for other regions

Table 2 Estimation result of scenario quantification in 2030
2005

2030

75-

2030/
2005

Population (104)

147

140

0.95

No. of householdｓ (104)

65

65

0.99

GDP (bill yen)

6124

8305

1.36

GDP per capita (mill yen/capita)

4.15

5.94

1.43

Gross output (bill yen)

9938

13400

1.35

Primary industry

17

19

1.13

Secondary industry

2735

3542

1.30

Tertiary industry

6947

9507

1.37

Passenger transport volume (milｌ p-km)

9251

8192

0.89

Freight transport volume (milｌ t-km)

3484

4571

1.31

70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54

Women
女

45-49

Men

40-44

男

35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10

5

0

5

10 20

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

105

Figure 1 Age pyramid in 2005 (left) and 2030(right)

Based on the settings shown in Table 1, the gross output figures for each industry is determined through interindustry analysis. The interindustry tables for2005 and 2030 are shown on Page 23. It is envisioned that the industrial situation of Kyoto in 2030 will be one in which will experience high growth in the
textile products and tourist related industries (commerce and industries that are included in personal services),. Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate,public services and other industries with a high volume of production in the base year (2005) will also be significant in 2030. The result is that there will be no
major changes in the overall configuration of industry in Kyoto from the base year.

7

Kyoto in 2030: A Low Carbon City

mercial sectors due to the economic growth. Emissions fromthese sectors are expected to increase 33% and 10%, respectively, from the 2005 levels. In terms of household emissions,the population is expected to decrease, therefore the average
number of persons per household will also decrease, andthis will result in the same number of households. Therefore
the household emission will be similar to that of the base year.
In contrast, in the counter measure case, many direct measures
are introduced and it is estimated that a 40% decrease from1990 levels is achievable. The decrease is particularly high inthe commercial and passenger transport sectors, with emissions decreasing to half or less as compared to the business as
usual case. Here it is identified that all sector in Kyoto emits
about the same volume of greenhouse gases, therefore in order
to see a major decrease in overall emissions, all sectors will
have to play a role in reducing emissions.

974 kt-CO2 amounting to approximately 20% of total emissions
reductions. This includes the popularization of highly energyefficient equipment as well as the improvement in building
insulation which results from the efficiency in the heating andcooling system. It can be seen that Kyoto's industrial structure
is centered on tertiary industries, and that there is potential
for major improvement in energy efficiency at offices, commercial establishments and so on. The next highest reduction
comes from the improvement in the energy efficiency inhomes. In the passenger transportation sector, the highest
amount of reduction comes from improving energy efficiency.
Approximately the same degree of emissions reductions areproduced by modal shifts, the use of different fuels, and theshift to natural energy. However, in order to achieve this levelof reductions from the modal shift, the measures envisioned
here for increase the percentage of people utilizing public
transport must be successful.

Low Carbon Measures

The detailed list of direct measures that have been envisioned for 2030 and their levels of effectiveness is as seen in
Table 7 on page 10. All of these measures must be implemented by 2030 in order to achieve the low carbon objectives.

Emission reductions by sector and type of direct measure are
as seen in Fig. 4. The largest reduction in this category is provided by improving energy efficiency in the commercial sector:

10000
Food Products and Beverages

8897

Textiles

2005
2005

Pulp, Paper and Printing

2030
2030

9000

Commercial

8015
7768

1815

8000

Machinery
Other Manufacturing and Mining

7000
CO2 emissions (kt-CO2)

Construction
Utility
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and Real EstateTransport, Communication andBroadcasting
Public Service

1740

Freight
Transport
2420

1680

2204

2080

Waste
incineration

4586
1674

4000

Business Service

Industry
Passenger
Transport

1826

6000

5000

Residential

1256

821

900

3000

Personal Service
Others

2000
0

500

1000
bill yen

1500

2000

2500

Figure 2 Output by industry

1689

8

1276

1506
1000

The industries consolidated in the figures are as follows.
Other manufacturing and mining (mining, lumber • wood products, furniture •fittings, chemical products, oil • coal products, plastic products, cement • cement
products, other ceramic • earthenware products, steel, nonferrous metals, metal
products, other manufacturing industry products)
Utilities (power, gas • heat supply, water supply, waste treatment)
Public services (civil service, university, other education, research, medical treatment • health care • social security, other public services)
Other (agriculture, forestry, fisheries, collection, processing and treatment of renewable resources, office supplies, category unknown)

1655

566

756

258

474

577

1990

2005

2030 BaU

421

504
0

819

349
2030 CM

Figure 3 CO2 emissions
The ExSS model was used to estimate energy demand and greenhousegas emissions. This is the same model that is used to estimate socioeconomic indicators. From the socioeconomic indicators estimated on
the previous page, the demand for energy services and energy use
technologies; the energy demand and the volume of greenhouse gas
emissions resulting from energy demand are calculated. (Energy services are those that provide utility through the use of energy, such as
air conditioning, heating, lighting, automobiles, and trains.. Energy
demand is calculated by dividing the demand for energy services withenergy efficiency.)

Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Transport
OthersEnergy- saving behavior

32

Improvement of energy efficiency

2005

500

Fuel shift & Natural energy
Energy- saving behavior

40

Improvement of energy efficiency

974

Fuel shift & Natural energy

174

Improvement of energy efficiency

194

Fuel shift64

Eco- driving

38
237

Improvement of energy efficiency

271

Fuel shift & Natural energy

232

Improvement of energy efficiency

177

Fuel shift & Natural energy

1562030 Corrective measures case
詳しい排出量グラフ、表

Renewableenergy
10%

Coal
8%

228
400
800
1200
CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )Figure 4 CO2 emissions reduction
The difference between the Business as Usual (BaU) case and the counter measure caseis identified as the volume of emission reduction. The detailed emission reductions bysector for direct measures are as seen on page 10.

Electricity

Commercial

Petroleum
27%

Nuclearpower
9%
Hydropower
2%

120

0

Residential

＜五味＞

874

Reduction of waste incineration

Petroleum
45%

Hydropower
2%

Reduction of emissions per power
generation
Forest absorption

Coal
10%

Natural gas
36%

Modal shift

Coal

Renewableenergy0%
Nuclear
power
7%

120

Natural gas

Industry

Natural gas
44%

Figure 5 Distribution of primary energy supply

Petroleum
Solar
Passenger

Transport

Biomass
Freight

Transport

2005

2030
Frozen atcurrent levels
case

2030
Corrective
measurescase0

0 0 1001002002003003000 0 100
0 100100200200300300
100 200200 3003004004000 0 100
100 200
200 300
300 400
400 500
500 0 0 1001002002003

Energy consumption （ktoe)

Figure 6 Final energy demand by sector
Power consumption that is supplied by photovoltaic power generation is subtracted from "Electric power" and included in "PV/SWH." In 2005, electric
power, oil and natural gas made up almost the total amount in each sector. In the counter measures case, improved energy efficiency will reduce overall energy consumption, and there will be a shift to PV/SWH and biomass that will produce lower CO2 emissions. However, industrial sectors in which
technologies for the use of renewable energy have not yet been developed, there will be a shift from oil to natural gas.

9

Kyoto in 2030: A Low Carbon City
Table 3 Direct measures in 2030

waste
incineration &power supply

Freighttransport
sectorPassenger transport sector

Industrial sector

Commercial sevtor

Household sector

SectorLow- carbon countermeasure

Data

Air conditioner
Highest energy efficiency air conditioner
COP
6.60
High energy efficiency air conditioner
COP
2.54
High energy efficiency kerosene heating
COP
0.88
High energy efficiency gas heating
COP
0.88
High energy efficiency oil water heater
COP
0.83
Gas water heater
Latent heat recovery- type water heater
COP
0.83
High energy efficiency gas water heater
COP
0.83
Heat pump water heater
COP
4.50
High energy efficiency gas cooker
Thermal efficiency (base year= 1)
0.55
High energy efficiency IH cooker
Thermal efficiency (base year= 1)
0.86
Fluorescent light
LED (substitute fluorescent light)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.67
Hf inverter fluorescent lightElectricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.33
Incandescent light
LED (substitute incandescent light)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
8.70
Bulb- type fluorescent lightElectricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
4.35
Refrigerator
Super high energy efficiency refrigerator
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.92
Highest energy efficiency refrigerator
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.33
TV
LCD TVElectricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.27
Highest energy efficiency TV
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.54House insulation
Next generation level
Thermal loss (base year= 1)
0.36
New standard
Thermal loss (base year= 1)
0.43
Energy- saving behavior
Energy service demand reduction ratio
10%
Photovoltaic generation
Potential(ktoe)
295
Solar water heating
Potential(ktoe)
1037
Other energy efficiency improvement
Other fuel shifting
Total
Air conditioner (cooling only)
Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP
5.00
Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only)
COP
4.07
Cooling (gas)High energy efficiency gas heat pump
COP
1.60
High energy efficiency absorption tiller (gas)
COP
1.35High energy efficiency absorption tiller(oil)COP
1.35
High energy efficiency boiler (oil)COP
0.88High energy efficiency boiler (gas)COP
0.88
Air conditioner (heating only)
Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP
7.40
Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only)
COP
4.44
High energy efficiency oil water heater
COP
0.87
Gas water heater
High energy efficiency gas waterheater
COP
0.87
Latent heat recovery- type water heater
COP
0.85
COP
3.00
CO2 cooling medium water heater
High energy efficiency gas cooker
Thermal efficiency (base year= 1)
0.55
IH cooking heater
Thermal efficiency (base year= 1)
0.86
Incandescent light
Timer controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
3.95
Illumination controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
3.36
Incandescent light
LED (substitute incandescent light)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
4.55
Bulb- type fluorescent lightElectricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
4.55
High- intensity evacuation lightElectricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
4.18
Large scale computer (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.18
Personal computer (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.47
Copier (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.45
Fax machine (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.45
Printer (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.45
Elevator (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
4.01
Ventilation
with energy- saving fan
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.00
with low- pressure duct
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.82
Vending machine (energy- saving type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.17
Traffic light (LED type)
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
3.75High energy efficiency transformer
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
2.53
Other electric appliances
30% energy- saving type
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.43
10% energy- saving type
Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1)
1.11
Building insulation
Thermal loss (base year= 1)
0.50
BEMS
Energy demand reduction ratio
10%
Energy- saving behavior
Energy service demand reduction ratio
10%
Photovoltaic generation
Potential(ktoe)
295
Solar water heating
Potential(ktoe)
1037
Other fuel shifting
Total
Energy efficient equipments
High energy efficiency boiler
Thermal efficiency(base year= 1)
1.09
High energy efficiency furnace
Thermal efficiency(base year= 1)
1.67
High energy efficiency morter
Electricity consumption(base year= 1)
1.25
Inverter control
Electricity consumption(base year= 1)
1.05
Fuel shifting
From oil to gas
Increase in the ratio of seasonal vegetable production
Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- seasonal vegitable produc
0.7
Increase in the ratio of wooden buildings
Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- wooden buildings
0.6
Total
VehicleHybrid vehicle
Fuel cost (conventional type= 1)
0.6High energy efficiency vehicle
Fuel cost (conventional type= 1)
0.8Modal shift
From vehicle to;
Intra area trip
walking and bicycle
train and bas
Inter area trip
bicycletrain and bas
Trip to outside of the citytrain
Bio fuel
From oil to bio fuelEco- driving
Fuel efficiency improvement ratio
24%
Total
VehicleHybrid vehicle
Fuel cost (conventional type= 1)
0.6High energy efficiency vehicle
Fuel cost (conventional type= 1)
0.8
Bio fuel
From oil to bio fuelTotal
Bio- methanol power generation
Reducing the amount of waste incineration
Improvement of CO2 intensity of power generation
Fuel shifting
Generation efficiency improvement
Coal
Generation efficiency
48%
Gas
Generation efficiency
55%

Total

Emissions reduction Action(kt- CO2)(**)
50.1 3(***)

SourceCategory
(*)

2
1
1
1
1

E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating)Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating)Diffusion ratio (heating: kerosene)
Diffusion ratio (heating: gas)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil)

50%
50%
80%
80%
70%

1
1
3
1
1

E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity)
Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas)
Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity)

50%
50%
70%
70%
70%

1
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

Identified implementation intencity

1
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

1
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

1
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

4
4
5
6
6

E
E
B
S
S
E
S

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio (hot water: all)

40%
40%
25%
10%
10%

2
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity)
Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity)

50%
50%

8
7
9
1
1

E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas)
Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas)
Diffusion ratio (cooling: oil)
Diffusion ratio (heating: oil)
Diffusion ratio (heating: gas)

40%
40%
70%
70%
70%

2
1
1

E
E
E

Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity)
Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil)

90%
10%
70%

1
1
1
1
1

E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas)
Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity)
Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas)
Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity)

50%
50%
100%
70%
70%

1
1

E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

1
1
1
1
1

E
E
E
E
E

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%
70%
70%
70%

1
1
1
10
5
6
6

E
E
E
E
B
S
S
S

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio (hot water: all)

50%
50%
100%
25%
25%
10%
5%

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Shifting ratio
Ratio of selling seasonal vegitables
Diffusion ratio

80%
80%
80%
80%
60%
36.2%
30%

E
11
12
11
11
17
17

1
1

13

1
1

17
17

S
E
E

E
E
B

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%

S
B

Shifting ratio
Shifting ratio
Shifting ratio
Shifting ratio
Shifting ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

15%
30%
10%
30%
30%
20%
20%

E
E
S

Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio
Diffusion ratio

50%
50%
20%

production of electricity (ktoe)
Rate of CO2 emissions reduction
CO2 emission per generation (tC/toe)

18.8
40%
0.78

12.9
25.8
6.1
55.0

3
3
3
3

48.9
12.3
8.0

3
3
3

24.1

3

51.5

3

72.1

3

31.9

3

100.7

2

32.4
26.9
38.8
0.2
27.3
625.1
41.3

3
5
5
3
3

19.1

4

3.2
25.1
75.4
67.0

4
4
4
4

16.0
64.2

4
4

64.2
27.0
11.6
131.6

4
4
4
4

20.6

4

0.5
3.1
3.3
0.9
0.6
1.2
5.4
50.1

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

11.5
1.4
13.3
61.2

4
4
4
4

231.1
24.4
40.3
26.9
49.6
70.8
1161.8
184.7

2
4
4
5
5
4

63.9
0.3
9.0
257.9
270.7

4
4
4

236.7

1

231.7
37.8
776.9
176.9

5
1

156.2
333.1
53.8
228.1
873.9

5

4

4

1

1

5
3, 4
(****)

14
15
16
4310.7* B: Energy-saving behavior E: Improved energy efficiency S: Shift to different fuels ** Numbers indicate the number of the Action that includes that measure . Note that the name of the measure may not be the sameas the name of the measure included in the Action. *** Some are included in Action 4. **** Reduction of CO2 emissions from power generation is not included in Actions.
Sources for data on direct measures
1. "Report of a Study on Scenario Creation and Simulation Projects," Chapter 4, "Corrective Measure Scenarios" Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc. (2005). 2. "Energy-saving Performance Catalog, Winter 2007" Energy
Conservation Center, Japan (2007). 3. "Handbook of Environmentally Friendly Technologies for Buildings," Osaka Prefecture website. 4. " Report of a Study Team on the Formulation of Technologies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in FY 2000" Ministry of the Environment (2001). 5. "Report of the Shiga Prefecture Research Project on Creation of a Sustainable Society" Shiga SD2030 Research Team (2005). 6. "Report of a Study on the Formulation of a New Energy Vision for the Kyoto City Region" Environmental Bureau, Kyoto Municipal Government (2000). 7. Announced February 2003 on the Osaka Gas website. 8. Announced January 2005 on the Yanmar Co., Ltd.
Website 9. Hitachi Appliances, Inc. website 10. "Technology Strategy Map (energy field): Ultra-long Term Energy Technology Vision" Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005). 11. Shimada, K., Tanaka, Y., Gomi, H.,
Masuoka, Y: "Development of techniques for formulating long-term regional scenarios for the achievement of a low carbon society and pioneering application of these techniques in Shiga Prefecture" Environmental Systems
Research, Vol. 34, pp. 143 - 154 (2006). 12. "Report of the Achievements of a Project to Introduce and Field-test a High-performance Industrial Furnace" New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization.
(NEDO) (2005). 13. Announced September 2007 on the Recoo website. 14. "Prospects for Energy Supply and Demand in 2030" Supply and Demand Subcommittee, Advisory Committee on Natural Resources and Energy (2005).
15. Clean Coal Power R & D Co., Ltd. website. 16. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, morning edition, March 14, 2008. 17. Kyoto City Environmental Model City Plan of Action (draft). 18. Some of the improvements in home energy
efficiency are included in Action 4. 19. Improvements in the emissions factor for electric power are not included in Actions.

10Roadmap to a Low Carbon City
resources and funds that can be allocated, dynamic optimization techniques should be used to enable this roadmap determine when thesemeasures should be initiated and when they should be completed inorder to arrive at the envisioned Kyoto in the year 2030 . In this study,
we have cited the "Kyoto City Environmental Model City Plan of Action"
to be introduced as one of the possible measures. In January 2009,
Kyoto was selected as an environmental model city. Environmental
model cities are cities which are selected by the Prime Minister’s officeas cities that have established high targets for major greenhouse gas
reductions and are making pioneering efforts in this area, these cities
are eligible to receive assistance for these endeavors. Each of the selected cities have formulated an action plan for achieving the reduction
targets. Kyoto's action plan covers a wide-ranging and includes morethan 100 measures. However, the specific programs in this action plan
covers a period of only five years:, up to 2014. In this study, we used
this action plan as a starting point and, prepared a schedule of all themeasures that must be introduced by year 2030 within the identified
time period. Following this we create a roadmap showing the time line
and sequence for the implementation of all the necessary measures.

Up to this point, we have envisioned Kyoto in year 2030 to be a cityin which a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions has been achieved. This is
the first step in backcasting: envisioning the goal of being low carbon
society. From this point on, we will focus on the second step: the construction of a roadmap to take us from the present situation towards
the goal. What path should we take in order to reach our target of theenvisioned Kyoto in 2030?
For the image of Kyoto in 2030, only the elements that directly reduce emissions have been incorporated, and the necessary quantities
for these elements have been calculated. The direct measures that areneeded to achieve a 40% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030
involve significant quantities. For example, bolder policy intervention
such as, an 80% adoption rate for better-insulated homes is required; if
not, there is no way this image will be achieved in the next 20 years.
For this reason, the government must implement numerous measuresand encourage a broad adoption of direct measures. This will require agreat deal of time; however, the resources and funds that can be expended on this effort are limited. Accordingly, a certain amount oftime will be needed for the execution of each of these measures.

Due to the large number of measures over all, these measures are
divided into six main action categories in accordance with the categories in the Kyoto City Environmental Model City Plan of Action.. The
reduction volumes and implementation time period for each action are
as seen in the diagram below. The organizational chart in pages 12 and13 illustrates the overall relationship between these measures. Following this, the measures that are included in each action category,, thereduction volume for each measure and the schedule for implementation is discussed.

The general public and companies in the private sector will be theentities who will actually implement most of the direct measures.
Therefore their acceptance will be needed by the government (mainly
the Kyoto municipal government) to implement measures to achieve a
low carbon society. Therefore, the general public and companies in theprivate sector must be included among the entities implementing theroadmap. For this reason, the roadmap must specify both the direct
and indirect measures that are needed, as well as the entities implementing these measures. Moreover, based on the restrictions on the

Six
Actions

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )

4000

461

3500

513

3000

644

2500
2000

722

1500

1453

1000

Kyoto- style Buildings andForest Development
Comprehensive Use ofRenewable Energy
Low Carbon Lifestyle
Walkable City, Kyoto
Decarbonation of Industry

500
0
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Walkable City, Kyoto
Kyoto- style Buildings and Forest Development
Low Carbon Lifestyle
Decarbonation of Industry
Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy

The upper figure shows the increase in emissions reductions per year for each Action. The colors used to identify the Actions are the same in both upper and lower figures.
As a significant proportion of the measures achieve their 2030 target reductions in the 10 years leading up to 2020, the increase in reductions after 2020 is a gentle one. Of
the six Actions, Action 6 "Establishment of a Funding Mechanism" is not shown in the figures, as there are no CO2 emissions reductions in the action itself. In addition, of
the CO2 emissions reductions, those resulting from corrective actions in the electrical power generation sector are not included.
The lower figure shows the start and end times for all of the measures included in each Action. All of the Actions begin in 2010, and in the case of the quickest one, Action
4 "Decarbonation of Industry," the final policy is completed around 2020. In contrast, as upgrading buildings will take a considerable amount of time, Action 2 "Traditional
Kyoto-style Buildings and Forest Management" will require all of the time leading up to 2030.

11Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

Low Carbon Measure Diagram
Mobility
management

Modal shift(automobile
to railway or
bus)

TDM
promotionRoad
pricing

TDM
implementation

Transit mall

Park & Ride

Designingpedestriantransit mall
Pavement
widening
Use ofpedestriantransit mall

Construction ofcar- park
Management ofcar- park
Promotion ofpark and ride

Study on roadpricing
Construction ofroad pricing
facility
Implementationof Road pricing
Reducing vehicle
inflow

Increase of
publictransport
use

Improvementofenvironment
for the usageof bicycle

Introducing IC
card
Improvement ofpublic transport
timetable
More convenient
terminal
Increase of
public transportuse

Public bicycle
parking area
Ordinance ofbicycle parking
area oncommercial
buildings
Planning
subsidy scheme
on bicycle
parking area
Subsidizebicycle parking
area
Increase of
bicycle parking
area
Promotion of
bicycle parking
area
Increase of
bicycle use

Kyoto style
Buildings
and Forest
Management

Improvementof insulationlevel inhouses

Improvementof insulationlevel inbusinessbuildings

Consulting
service forenergy saving
housesCASBEE
Kyoto

Planning of
consultation
system forenergy- efficientbuildings
Operation of
consultation
system forenergy- efficientbuildings
Diffusion of
better insulatedhousesLargeemitter
programs
Implementationof large
programs
Diffusion ofenergy efficientequipments
Diffusion ofenergy saving
managing
system

Improvementof emission
intensity inconstruction

Forestabsorption

Promotion of
WoodenhousesWoodenpublicbuildings

Design of
CASBEE Kyoto
systemOperation of
CASBEE Kyoto
systemHolding training
workshops of
CASBEE Kyoto
system
Propagation of
better insulatedhouses
Propagation of
better insulated
officesPlanning Heisei
Kyo- Machiya
type housing
Construction of
Heisei KyoMachiya
prototypes
Implementationof Heisei KyoMachiya typehousing
Diffusion of
Heisei KyoMachiya typehousing

Publishingguidance ofwooden house
specification
Converting
public buildings
to wooden ones

Improvementof efficiency
in businessequipments

Energy- saving
behavior inbusiness
establishment

KES
environmental
management
systemstandard

Support for
SME

Promotionof R&D

Subsidy to small
businesses
Funding to smallbuisinesses
Diffusion ofenergy efficientbusiness
equipments

R&D inenvironment+ na
no cluster
researchorganization
Diffusion ofenergy efficient
home appliancedeveloped in the
nanocluster
Diffusion ofenergy efficientbusiness
equipments
developed in the
nanocluster

KES*3
consultation andlectureBidding thatgives
preferential
treatment to
KES- certified
companies
Diffusion ofenergy efficientbusiness
equipments
Diffusion ofenergy saving
behavior

Forestmanagement

Implementationof Integrated
forestry plan
Implementationof forestry
management
activation
project

Absorptionof CO2 byplanting tree

Promotion ofplanting tree
on private
space

Planting treeon public
space

Operatingsubsidizesystem of tree
planting
Planting tree on
private space

Planting tree onroadside

Corporateenvironmental
philanthropy

Energysaving in
publicbuildings

Improvementof emission
intensity inagriculture

Reducing
industrial
solid waste
incineration

Promotion of
corporateenvironmental
philanthropy

Energy saving
reform of
publicbuildings

Seasonal
vegetable
promotion

New
recyclingplan

Implementationof KESC*4

Planning of
public buildingreformation ofenergy saving
systems
Energy saving
reformation of
public buildings

Promotion ofseasonal
vegetable
distribution
Improvement ofindustrial
production
technique
Increase theratio of seasonal
Kyoto vegetableconsumption

Implementationof new national
recycling society
plan
Reducing
industrial solid
waste emission

Decarbonationof Industry

12

*1 KICS- LLC: Kyoto Information Card System, LLC*2 LRT: Light Rail Transit*3 KES: KES Environmental Management System Standard*4 KESC: KES Community

Walkable
City, Kyoto

Modal shift(automobile
to railway)

Amenity inthe usage ofrailway
Implementationof KICS- LLC*1
model projectIncrease of
KISC- LLC
project
Increase ofrailway use

Modal shift(automobile
to bus)Light RailTransit

Planning of
LRT*2 system
Construction of
LRT system
Operating LRTUsing LRT
systemBus priority

Board of bus
using systempromotion
Increase of bus
lane
Promotion ofbus lane system
Introducing
public transport
priority system
Increase of bus
use

Modal shiftof visitors

Sightseeing
campaign
using public
transport

Publictransport
information
serviceCampaign
sightseeing
using public
transport
Planning
intelligent bus
transit system
Operatingintelligent bus
transit
Increase use of
public transport
by visitors
outside of thecity

Improvement ofsightseeing
information
display
Public transport
information
service by
websiteIncrease use of
public transport
by visitors
outside of thecity

Diffusion of
eco- vehicle

Diffusion of
eco- driving

Promotionof buyingeco- vehicle

Enlightenme
nt for ecodriving

Construction ofelectric vehicle
recharge
stations
Eco- vehicle
promotion
Planning ecovehicle subsidy
Eco- vehicle
subsidy
Diffusion of
eco- vehicle

Training of ecodriving
Diffusion of
eco- driving

Establishmentof a Funding
Mechanism

Low Carbon
Lifestyle

Improvementof efficiency
in residential
equipments

Promotion of
options by
funds
Reducing
municipal
waste
incineration

Energysaving
behavior inhousesEnlightenment
in lifestyle

Environmental
education

Encouragementof ecohousehold
accounting
Energy saving
consulting
service
Promotion of
eco- community
association
Diffusion ofenergy saving
labeling
Diffusion ofenergy efficient
home appliance
Diffusion ofenergy saving
behavior

Training of ecosupporters at
Miyako Ecology
CenterEnvironmental
education inschoolImplementationof Children’s
Eco- life
Challenge
Project
Diffusion ofenergy efficient
home appliance
Diffusion ofenergy saving
behavior

New
recyclingplan

Eco- point

Operating ecopoint system
Diffusion ofenergy efficient
home appliance

Kyoto citizen
environmental
fund

Forestenvironment
tax

Kyoto
carbonoffsetOperation of
Kyoto citizen
environmental
fund

Design of forest
environment tax
system
Implementationof forest
environment tax
systemDevelopment of
Kyoto carbon
offset model
project
Full- scale
operation of
Kyoto carbon
offset system

Implementationof new national
recycling society
plan
Reducing
municipal waste

Comprehensive
Use ofRenewable
EnergyFuel shift ofautomobile(petroleum tobiomass)

PV/SWH

PV/SWH for
publicbuildings

Promotionof PV/SWH
for houses

Sustaining
BDF
production

Creating a
installation
specification of
PV/SWH for
public building
Installation of
PV/SWH on
public building

Subsidizesystem of PV
Diffusion of PV
devicesCollection ofused cooking oil

13

Promotionof biofuel

R&D of Gasified
methanoldevelopment
Setting guidelineof biofuel use
Differentiate
taxation of
biofuel use
Diffusion of
biofuel use innational scale
Fuel shift ofvehicle from oil
to biofuelPower
generation
by biomassBiomethanolpower
generationPowergeneration
by wasteincineration

R&D of Gasified
methanolConstruction of
bio methanol
plant
Operation ofbio- methanol
power
generationPowergeneration fromsolid waste
incineration

Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

Action 1 Walkable City, Kyoto
The "Walkable City, Kyoto" action is targeted to reduce CO2
emissions in 2030 by 722 kt-CO2. The measures that need to
be implemented here promote an urban design that prioritizes pedestrians and public transport, in order to reduce
CO2 emissions in the transport sector. We estimate thismeasure will be completed by year 2020 because, Kyoto City
has already actively been promoting this measure.
However, other measures such as road pricing and theintroduction of light rail transit (LRT) involve long-term
construction works or more significant changes to the transport structure and will take a longer time frame, therefore,
all these measures will not be completed until 2028.
The objective of "Promotion of mobility management" isto promote the use of public transport by the general public.
"Implementation of transport demand management (TDM)"
is needed to bring about a voluntary change in the attitudeof the general public. This measure will employ educational
pamphlets and related maps to encourage the use of public
transport, opinion surveys of transport behavior and so on.
"Construction of pedestrian transit malls" is a measuredesigned to bring about a shift from the use of privately
owned automobiles to the use of public transport by thegeneral public. The sidewalks along Shijo-dori in the city
center will be widened to secure a comfortable pedestrianspace and promote a modal shift on the part of the generalpublic. The use of pedestrian transit malls by the generalpublic will enable CO2 emissions to be reduced by 32 kt-CO2.
Since Kyoto city has a large numbers of tourists visiting,compared to other areas in Japan, it is important to encourage these tourists to use public transport as well. "Attractionof tourists using public transport" is the measure that will
be employed to promote the use of public transport by tourists. Publicity campaigns will be held at major train stationsin the Kinki and Chubu districts to invite tourists to come to
Kyoto by public transportation. Moreover, the introductionof “smart” bus services that travel between tourist spots inthe city will encourage tourists to use public transport totravel within the city as well. These measures will reduce
CO2 emissions by 12 kt-CO2.

4500
4000

Passenger transport (Mill p- km)

2005
3500

2030 BaU
Frozen2030 CM

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
RailwayBus

Automobile Motorcycle

Walking

BicycleOthersIn the "business as usual" case , the modal share formeans of transport is the same in 2030 as it was in2005. In the "counter measure" case , a modal shift
has occurred from privately owned automobiles toother means of transport, with the result that the
automobile share has decreased and the share of
public transport, bicycle and pedestrian transit has
increased.
In the "counter measure" case , the modal share formeans of transport within the region that was occupied by automobiles has shifted 10% to trains, 20% tobuses, 8% to pedestrian transit, and 7% to bicycles.
Moreover, inter-regional transport within the city byautomobile has shifted 10% to trains, 20% to buses,
and 5% each to pedestrian transit and bicycles.
Transport to places outside the region by automobile
has shifted 30% to trains.

Figure 7 Passenger transport volume14722 kt-CO
722 2

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )800

Walkable City,
Kyoto

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

43.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

TDM implementation

Actor
G

Designing pedestrian transit mallG

Pavement widening32

Use of pedestrian transit mall
Construction of car- park

G
C
GManagement of car- park
32

Promotion of park and ride
Study on road pricing

G
C, I
G

Construction of road pricing facility

G

Implementation of Road pricing

32

Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing
Introducing IC card

11

Increase of public transport use (by IC card)
Improvement of public transport timetable

11

Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement)
More convenient terminal

11

Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal)

G
C, I
I, G
C, I
I, G
C, I
I, G
C, I

Public bicycle parking areaG

Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings

G

Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking areaG

Subsidize bicycle parking area

G

Increase of bicycle parking area

I

Promotion of bicycle parking area

G

Increase of bicycle parking area

C, I

Implementation of KICS- LLC model project

I, G

Increase of KISC- LLC project
21

Increase of railway use

I
C, I

Planning of LRT system

I, G

Construction of LRT system

I, GOperating LRT
21

Using LRT system

I, G
C, I

Board of bus using system promotion

G

Increase of bus laneG

Promotion of bus lane system

G

Introducing public transport priority system
30

Increase of bus use

I, G
C, I

Campaign sightseeing using public transport

I, G

Planning intelligent bus transit system

I, GOperating intelligent bus transit

12

Increase use of public transport by visitors outside of the city
Improvement of sightseeing information display

I, G
C, I
I, G

Public transport information service by website
12

Increase use of public transport by visitors outside of the city

I, G
C, I

Construction of electric vehicle recharge stations

I, G

Eco- vehicle promotion

I, G

Planning eco- vehicle subsidy

GEco- vehicle subsidy
448

Diffusion of eco- vehicle
Training of eco- driving

38
kt-CO2

Diffusion of eco- driving

G
C, I
I, G
C, I

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the city

15

Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

Action 2 Kyoto-style Buildings and Forest Managementtargeted to encourage companies in the private sector andindividuals to construct buildings with excellent insulationand shading from the sun's rays, by means of a Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency(CASBEE) system for Kyoto. This system recognizes buildingsthat make an outstanding effort to preserve scenic beautyand create a low carbon society. The CASBEE Kyoto program
will promote the construction of residential areas and offices
with improved insulation, reducing CO2 emissions by 50 ktCO2 (residences) and 231 kt-CO2 (offices).

The "Traditional Kyoto-style Buildings and Forest Management" action is targeted reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 461
kt-CO2. This action comprises of two main action measures;
namely, to promote the dissemination of highly energyefficient low carbon buildings, and to promote the absorptionof CO2 through forest planting, greening and so on.
The upgrading and renovation of buildings is a time consuming measure, and it is identified,, even if efforts are madeto start work immediately in 2010, a minimum time period of
20 years will be needed for completion of works. Conversely,
forest management will reach the necessary level of completion in only about five years, however this effort will need tobe continued and maintained from then on.

The objective of "Converting residences to wooden buildings" and "Converting public facilities to wooden buildings” isto reduce CO2 emissions during the constructing of newbuildings. The development of forests, which is a main sourceof carbon sink, will be enhanced with the use of timber which
is produced fromwithin the city.
This will further
enhanceandencourage
thelocal timber industry.

"Improvement of consultation system for energy-efficientbuildings " is a measure to promote the conversion of buildings to highly insulated residences when renovating existinghomes. To promote this measure, an energy-efficient building consultation system will be initiated, and an "energyefficient residence advisor program" will be launched to train
and dispatch advisors who are experts on energy-efficientbuildings for homes. This measure will increase the numberof city residents who improve their home insulation system,
making it possible to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 kt-CO2.
"Implementation of CASBEE Kyoto system" is a measure

461 kt-CO
461 2

500

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )Kyoto-style
Buildings andForestManagement

400

300

200

100

0
2005

2010

2015

2020

PlanningPlanningof consultation
system forenergybuildingsof consultation
systemfor efficientenergy- efficient…
Operationof consultation
system forenergybuildings
Operationof consultation
systemfor efficientenergy- efficient
…

2025

2030

Actor
G

50

Diffusion
betterinsulatedhousesDiffusionofof
betterinsulatedhousesDesignCASBEE
Kyoto
systemDesignofof
CASBEE
Kyoto
systemG
C, I
GOperation
CASBEE
Kyoto
systemOperation
ofof
CASBEE
Kyoto
systemHoldingtraining
workshopsofof
CASBEE
Kyoto
systemHoldingtraining
workshops
CASBEE
Kyoto
system
Propagation
betterinsulatedhouses
Propagation
ofof
betterinsulatedhousesG
G
50
231

Propagation
betterinsulated
offices
Propagation
ofof
betterinsulated
officesPlanning
HeiseiKyoKyoMachiya
type
housing
Planning
Heisei
Machiyatype
housing

C, I
I
GConstruction
Heisei
KyoMachiya
prototypes
Construction
ofof
Heisei
KyoMachiya
prototypes
Implementation
Heisei
KyoMachiya
type
housing
Implementation
ofofHeisei
KyoMachiya
type
housingI, G
4

Diffusion
HeiseiKyoKyoMachiya
type
housing
Diffusion
ofof
Heisei
Machiyatype
housing
Publishingguidance
woodenhousehouse
specification
Publishingguidanceofof
woodenspecification

I, G
C, I
G

Converting
publicbuildings
woodenones
ones
Converting
publicbuildings
toto
woodenImplementation
Integrated
forestry
plan
Implementation
ofof
Integrated
forestryplan

4Implementation
forestry
management
activation
project
Implementation
ofofforestry
management
activation
project
Operatingsubsidizesystemtree
planting
Operatingsubsidizesystemofof
tree
planting

120

G
I, G
I, G

0.01

Planting
tree
privatespace
Planting
tree
ononprivate
space
0.1 kt-CO2

Plantingtreeroadside
Plantingtree
ononroadside

G
C, I
G

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the city16

Action 3 Low Carbon Lifestyle
The "Low Carbon Lifestyle" action is targeted to reduce
CO2 emissions in 2030 by 644 kt-CO2. This action comprisesof three main actions measures; namely, breaking awayfrom the large consumption lifestyle, shifting to equipmentwith outstanding energy efficiency, and encouraging thegeneral public to conserve energy.
With the cooperation of the general public, these measures could be implemented immediately, but it will taketime for these efforts to become widespread. Most of thesemeasures will be widely adopted within the first 10 years,
however, the effects of long-term measures such as; educating elementary and junior high school students will not betranspire until 2025 or thereafter.

purpose of this measure is to promote the dissemination ofhighly efficient equipment and energy-saving behavior through the change in public attitude brought about by
the activities of the “eco-supporters” trained here.
Moreover, "Environmental education in schools" and "Children's Eco-life Challenge Project " will be conducted on
an ongoing basis with the aim of producing a reduction in
CO2 emission in the medium to long term. The " Children's
Eco-life Challenge Project is a children's version of the ecohousehold accounting, implemented by the city in cooperation with companies in the private sector and environmental NPOs. These education and training efforts will
reduce CO2 emissions by 80 kt-CO2.

"Encouragement of eco-household accounting" is a measure to encourage the general public to purchase highly
energy-efficient products when they buy new household
appliances. A web-based eco-household account book will
be introduced to educate people about the advantages ofusing energy-efficient of household appliances. This will
promote not only the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances but also encourage and instill an energysaving attitude in the general public. These educational
activities will result in a reduction of CO2 emissions by 272
kt-CO2.
"Training of eco-supporters at Miyako Ecology Center” isa measure to cultivate environmental volunteers who will
be active in the community as environmental leaders. The

644 kt-CO
644 2

CO2 emisions reduction (kt- CO2 )700

Low Carbon
Lifestyle

600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Encouragementofofecoeco-householdhouseholdaccounting
accounting
Encouragement

Actor
G

EnergyEnergysavingsavingconsulting
consultingservice
serviceI, G

Promotion
Promotionofofecoeco-community
communityassociation
association

C, G

Diffusion
Diffusionofofenergy
energysavingsavinglabelinglabeling

256

Diffusion
Diffusionofofenergy
energyefficientefficienthomehomeapplianceappliance(by(bypromotion)
promotion)

16

Diffusionsavingbehavior
behavior(by(bypromotion)
promotion)
Diffusionofofenergy
energysaving

I, G
C, I
C, I

Training
Trainingofofecoeco-supporters
supportersatatMiyako
MiyakoEcology
EcologyCenter
CenterG

Environmental
Environmentaleducation
educationininschool
schoolG

Implementation
ImplementationofofChildren’sChildren’sEcoEco-life
lifeChallenge
ChallengeProject
Project64

Diffusion
Diffusionofofenergy
energyefficientefficienthomehomeapplianceappliance(by(byeducation)
education)

16

Diffusion
Diffusionofofenergy
energysavingsavingbehavior
behavior(by(byeducation)
education)
OperatingOperatingecoeco-point
pointsystemsystem

G
C
C
G

228

Diffusion
Diffusionofofenergy
energyefficientefficienthomehomeapplianceappliance(by(byecoeco-point)
point)
Implementation
Implementationofofnew
newnational
nationalrecycling
recyclingsocietysocietyplan
plan

228
kt-CO2

Reducing
municipalwaste
waste
Reducingmunicipal

C, I
G
C

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the city17Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

Action 4 Decarbonation of Industry
incorporated into small and medium-sized companies. This
will then promote the introduction of highly energyefficient facilities and equipment and encourage energysaving behavior at small and medium-sized companies.

The action of "Decarbonation of Industry” is targeted toreduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 1,453 kt-CO2. This action
comprises of two main action measures; namely, measures
to promote research and development into state-of-the-art
environmental technologies through industry-academiagovernment cooperation, and measures to promote a shift
to environmentally friendly industries and commercial
enterprises in cooperation and companies in the private
sector. It is estimated that target level of implementation
can be achieved by 2022 through the establishment of aframework to encourage active investment.

Bidding that gives preferential treatment to KES-certified
companies will help popularize KES certification. In addition, grants and financing will be provided to small andmedium-sized companies to enable them to introduce
highly energy-efficient facilities and equipment. Energysaving practices and the introduction of highly energyefficient facilities and equipment by small and mediumsized companies will be able to reduce CO2 emissions by
740 kt-CO2.

"Large emitter programs” are programs in which companies in the private sector that use large quantities of energy
are defined as "large emitters" and are required to submit a
3-year greenhouse gas reduction plan and to report emissions annually. This will promote active efforts by thesecompanies who are major CO2 emitters, to increase theefficiency of the facilities and equipment at their workplaces and promote an energy-saving practice within theworkplace. This activity will be able to reduce CO2 emissions by 421 kt-CO2.

"Promotion of technical development and disseminationof results" is a measure that promotes the development oftechnologies to combat global warming through research at"environmental nanoclusters," where state-of-the-art advanced materials that will contribute to the environmental
field are developed through industry, academic and government cooperation, using nanotechnology as the key technology. Research and development by environmental nanoclusters will promote the dissemination of highly efficientfacilities and equipment at homes and offices, and together
these efforts will be able to reduce CO2 emissions by 149 kt-CO2.

"Promotion of KES certification" is a measure aimed forthe small and medium-sized companies. The implementation of the KES environmental management system is to be

1453
1453 kt-CO
2

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )1600

Decarbonationof Industry

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Implementation
Implementationofof large
largeemitter
emitterprograms
programs
energy equipments
efficient equipments
by largeprograms
emitter …
DiffusionDiffusionof energy ofefficientby large emitter

401

Diffusionof energy systemsaving managing
systemprogramsby large …
Diffusion of energy
saving managing
by large emitter

20

KES
KESconsultation
consultationand
andlecture
lecture401

Diffusionofequipments
energy efficientbusinessKES
equipments
by…
Diffusion of energy efficientbusinessby requiringcertification

20of energysavingrequiring
KES …
Diffusion ofDiffusionenergy saving
behaviorby behavior
requiringby
KES
certification
Subsidy
Subsidyto
tosmallsmallbusinesses
businesses

319

Diffusionofbusinessenergy efficientbusiness
equipments
by…
Diffusion of energy
efficientequipments
by subsidy
and loan
R&D
R&Din
inenvironment+
environment+nano
nanocluster
clusterresearchresearch organization
organization

43

Diffusionof energy
efficient home
appliancedeveloped
in …
Diffusion of energy
efficienthome appliancedeveloped
in thenanocluster

106

Diffusionequipmentsof energy efficientbusiness
Diffusion of energy efficient businessdeveloped
in theequipments
nanocluster…
Implementation
Implementationofof KESC
KESC

G
I
I
I
I
I, G
C
I
C, I, G

public buildingreformationof savingenergysystems
saving …
PlanningPlanningof publicofbuildingreformationof energy

G

0.1

G

Promotion
Promotion of
ofseasonalseasonalvegetable
vegetabledistribution
distribution

Implementation
Implementationofof new
newnational
nationalrecycling
recycling societysocietyplan
plan
Reducing
Reducingindustrial
industrialsolid
solid waste
wasteemission
emission

I

G

Funding
Fundingto
tosmallsmallbuisinesses
buisinesses

Improvement
Improvementof
ofindustrial
industrialproduction
production technique
technique
Increase
Increasethe
theratio
ratioofofseasonalseasonalKyoto
Kyotovegetable
vegetableconsumption
consumption

I
G

Biddingthat gives preferential
treatment
to KEScertified …
Bidding thatgives preferential
treatment to
KES- certified
companies

EnergyEnergysavingsavingreformation
reformation ofofpublic
publicbuildings
buildings

Actor
G

I, G
I, G
0.3

C, I
G

142
kt-CO2I

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the city18

Action 5 Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy
will also be provided for the use of the biodiesel fuel manufactured using this technology as an effort to encourage
greater use of biofuel. Nationwide efforts to encourage
biofuel use and implementation of this unique Kyoto policy
will increase the dissemination of biofuel, thus making it
possible to reduce CO2 emissions by 388 kt-CO2.

The "Comprehensive Use of Renewable Energy" action
will be able to reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 513 kt-CO2.
This action comprises of two main action measures; namely,
to increase the use of photovoltaic power and solar water
heaters (PV/SWH), and to promote the creation of energy
from wastes.
An economic mechanism will enable the target level ofphotovoltaic power generation to be achieved by 2020, andthe equipment use will be continued thereafter as well.
Research and development activities will be conducted forthe development of biogas from waste and, it is estimatedthat the need for this techonology will arise by 2027.
"Promotion of PV equipment installation in private sector
facilities" and "Installation of PV/SWH in public facilities"
will be implemented as measures to promote the use ofphotovoltaic power generation systems and solar water
heaters. "Promotion of PV equipment installation in private
sector facilities" will provide assistance for installing solar
energy equipment in homes in order to promote dissemination in the general public. "Installation of PV/SWH in public
facilities" will be promoted by the city as an initiative for
new public facilities. The dissemination of PV/SWH equipment will be able to reduce CO2 emissions by 72 kt-CO2.
"Promotion of biomass use" is a measure introduced topromote the use of biofuel in automobiles. In order to dissemination this measure nationwide, a gasified methanol
development technology will be developed in Kyoto throughindustry-academia-government cooperation. Tax incentives

513 kt-CO
513 2

550

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2 )Comprehensive
Use ofRenewable
Energy

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2005

2010

2015

CreatingCreatinga installation
specificationof PV/SWH
for publica installation
specificationof PV/SWH
forbuilding
public …
InstallationofofPV/SWH
PV/SWHon
onpublic
publicbuildingbuilding
Installation

2020

2025

2030

Actor
G

36

SubsidizesystemsystemofofPV
PV
Subsidize
DiffusionofofPV
PVdevices
devices
Diffusion

G
36

G
C, I

Collectionofofusedusedcooking
cookingoil
oilCollection
R&DofofGasified
Gasifiedmethanol
methanoldevelopment
development
R&D
Settingguideline
guidelineofofbiofuelbiofueluse
use
SettingC, G

Differentiatetaxation
taxationofofbiofuelbiofueluse
use
Differentiate
Diffusionofofbiofuelbiofueluseuseininnational
nationalscale
scale
Diffusion

G

G
G

388

Fuelshift
shiftofofvehicle
vehiclefrom
fromoiloilto
tobiofuelbiofuelFuelConstructionofofbio
biomethanol
methanolplant
plant
Construction

27

Operationofofbiobio-methanol
methanolpower
powergeneration
generation
Operation
Powergeneration
generationfrom
fromsolidsolidwaste
wasteincineration
incineration
Power

27
kt-CO2

O
I, G
G
G
G

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the city19Roadmap to a Low Carbon City

Action 6 Establishment of a Funding Mechanism
The purpose of the "Establishment of a Funding Mechanism" action is to develop a mechanism for obtaining thefunds needed to implement low carbon measures. Thisaction involves the establishment of a Kyoto Citizen's Environmental Fund in anticipation of the income from theforest environment tax and carbon offset projects. This is
in line to create a mechanism to provide economic support
for forest management and other efforts. It will create an
economic system for promoting efforts by individual citizens and companies in the private sector to reduce green-house gas emissions.
"Development of Kyoto carbon offset model project" is
one of the policies that will utilize the Kyoto Citizen's Environment Fund. Companies in the private sector will identify the emissions that are difficult to be reduce in theiractivities for the year and, they will be able to offset theseby purchasing environmental credits obtained from the useof solar energy generation and the other energy efficient
activities. The reductions in emissions resulting from theseactions are interconnected with other actions.

Establishmentof a Funding
Mechanism
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Actor

Operation
Operation ofof Kyoto
Kyoto citizen
citizen environmental
environmental fund
fund

G

DesignDesign ofof forest
forest environment
environment tax
tax systemsystem

G

Implementation
Implementation ofof forest
forest environment
environment tax
tax systemsystemDevelopment
Development ofof Kyoto
Kyoto carbon
carbon offset
offset model
model projectproject

G
I, G

Fullscale operation
operation ofof Kyoto
Kyoto carbon
carbon offset
offset systemsystemFull- scaleI

C: Citizen I: Industry G: Government O: Outside of the cityin advance from the target number of years. However, as noted
above, implementing measures from an early date is good forseveral reasons. This Roadmap illustrates that most of thepolicies will be completed by 2025. However, this by no means
signifies that it would be all right to postpone the implementation period.

Many of the measures in this roadmap will be initiated in
2010, the first year of the plan. One reason for this is that
implementation of these measures has already begun or has
already been decided in the Kyoto City Plan of Action. However, implementation of measures from an early stage is significant in several ways.

Moreover, the funds which are needed to implement policies
must be provided by the government, general public and companies in the private sector. However, this study has considered only the funding burden that is most likely to be borne bythe (Kyoto Municipal) government.

In many cases, the low carbon measures are policies of anotherdepartment. For example, introduction of a system thatprioritizes public transport is not only a low carbon
measure but also a transport policy. Effectiveness as atransport policy will be greater if the policy is implemented sooner rather than later. Improved energy efficiency will reduce costs and may provide an economic
benefit. Measures that are effective in ways other than
the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions should beachieved as soon as possible.
Quick implementation may cause the policy to become a symbol of the city. Implementing the policy before other
cities will make it newsworthy and improve the stature of
the city.
Medium to long term planning has many uncertainties. Implementing measures well in advance of the deadline is thefoundation of project management.
If enormous funds are poured into this effort, it may be possible to achieve the reduction targets in a shorter time period20

Research Methodology
Overview of Research Methodology
The backcasting method is defined as "calculating back to the present from a
specific target point." This is done "to determine the potential for future physical implementation of that target and the type of measures that will be needed
to arrive at that point." 1) This process can be divided into two stages: envisioning of the target point, and calculating backward from that point (in otherwords, searching for a pathway to arrive at that target point). Fig. 8 shows aconceptual diagram of the backcasting method. When attempting to achieve an
objective such as a low carbon society which requires a major transformation ofsociety, it is very likely that the objective cannot be achieved by starting fromthe present state and extending techniques that can be implemented. For thisreason, first a normative envisioned scenario of the situation in which the target
has been achieved is drawn out, without being constrained by current and pasttrends. This is used as the target point that must be reached, and one works
back from that point to the present location to determine the path that must be
taken. This method makes it possible to depict what a certain region would look
like as a low carbon society, and also enables study of what must be done now
in order to ultimately arrive at that target. The backcasting approach itself is notparticularly a unique methodology. This method of calculating backward issomething that we used on a daily basis. What needs to be specifically identified
here is; how this approach should be applied to a practical, quantitative andcomprehensive problem that involves the whole society, such as the achievement of a low carbon society. For this reason, the backcasting method is developed as a practical method of application. This method involves dividing theprocess into two stages as noted above and constructing estimation tools(models) to provide the quantitative data needed at each stage, and then applying these models in the form of computer programs to Kyoto City. The Roadmap
described in this report is the result of the application of this method.

Stage 1 Defining the Target
The first stage in the method is to envision the future society as the target.
The basic approach is to "determine what direct measures will be needed toachieve emission targets based on a given socioeconomic situation that has beenenvisioned." Accordingly, greenhouse gas emissions will be permitted on thestatus of socioeconomic activity.
(1) Establish a framework
First, determine the framework for creating the overall low carbon society
scenario. This involves determining the target region, reference year, target year,
target activities, environmental targets, number of scenarios and so on. The
target year should be far enough in the future to achieve the necessary changes
but close enough that it can be envisioned by people in the region.
In studying scenarios for the society of the future, often multiple scenarios are
created and a comparative study of these scenarios are conducted. However,most of the low carbon plans prepared by local governments around the world
are based on a single socioeconomic assumption. Public targets are compiled by
local governments in the form of a "Vision" statement. However, considering theinherent instability and uncertainty involved in making predictions about thesociety of the future, and in particular the openness of the regional economy, asensitivity analysis should be conducted at least for crucial hypotheses (the rateof economic growth, the structure of industry and so on).
(2) Envision the socioeconomic situation (scenario creation)
Before conducting a quantitative analysis, create a qualitative picture of the
future society, including such factors as lifestyle patterns, industry, land use
and so on. The following are some of the methods that can be used to do this.
- Existing concepts, plans and targets in each field for that region- Interviews with influential persons, workshops etc.
- Simple extension of the present situation or freezing it in place- Documents and plans relating to the future of the country or even larger
regionA method that will be as meaningful as possible for subsequent policy deployment, considering the actual policymaking process, should be selected. Ultimately, the envisioning of the socioeconomic situation serves only as a premisefor the achievement of a low carbon society. Based on this perspective, for the
purposes of this study it was decided not to go into the methods used to envision specific socioeconomic situations (for example, the growth rate for a certain
industry).
(3) Quantify the envisioned socioeconomic situation
Establish the indicators that will serve as the input values for estimating thesociety of the future based on the situation envisioned in (2). Here exogenous
variables or parameters are entered as values for the ExSS model. The envisioned
socioeconomic factors that are thought to have a particularly great impact ongreenhouse gas emissions are the economic growth rate for the nation as awhole, the exports for each industry, the population distribution and the employment rate.
(4) Collect low carbon direct measures
Collect the direct measures that you think can be introduced by the target
year. In addition to energy use technologies, these might include changes to thetransportation structure, renewable energy, energy-saving practices, carbon
sinks and so on.
(5) Establish the direct measures for the target year
Establish the number of direct measures collected in (4) to be introduced anddetermine technical coefficients (energy efficiency, etc.) relating to energy demand and CO2 emissions. Standards for determining the combination of direct
measures might include cost minimization, ease of acceptance by stakeholders,technical achievability and so on.
(6) Identify estimates and direct measures
Enter the exogenous variables and parameters established in (3) and (5) andestimate the socioeconomic indicators and greenhouse gas emissions. Socioeconomic indicators include population, the added value of the region, production
for each industry, transport demand and so on. If the target for greenhouse gas
emissions has been achieved, proceed to step (7). If not, return to step (5) andstudy the number of direct measures to be introduced.
(7)Finalize the list of direct measures

Labor productivity

Export by goods

Predictive future

Investment
Government expenditure

Output byindustry

Import ratio

Present

1. Paint a picture of thesociety that is the future goal

Future target
2. calculate back to the present
from the future target and specify aroadmap to it
Time

Figure 8 Idea of backcasting

Labor participation ratio

Input coefficientmatrixLabor demand

Wage
IO
analysisFloor area per output
Energy service demand
per driving force

Population

CO2 emission factor

Householdsize

Consumption

Output ofcommercial
industry

Output ofmanufacturin
g industry

Population

Commercial
building
floor area

Freighttransport
demandPassenger
transport
demandNumber ofhousehold

Trip per person

Carbon sink
Energy demand
Exogenous variables
Parameters

Consumption
pattern

IncomeFuel share
Energy efficiency

Taxation andsocial security

Demographic composition

Endogenous
variables

Modal share
Freight generation
per output
Transport distanceCO2 emission

Figure 9 ExSS calculation flow
1） Robinson, J., B.:Futures under glass A resipe for people who hate to predict, Futures, pp820-842, 1990.

21

Trip distance

Modal share

Finalize the list of the direct measures whose introduction is envisioned andthe reduction in emissions for each direct measure. This indicates the state of
low carbon direct measures that will become the final targets at the next stage.
An example of such a list is shown in Table 3 on page 10 of this pamphlet.
Finalize the list of the direct measures whose introduction is envisioned andthe reduction in emissions for each direct measure. This indicates the state of
low carbon direct measures that will become the final targets at the next stage.
An example of such a list is shown in Table 3 on page 10 of this pamphlet.
Fig. 9 shows the configuration of the ExSS model. The figure shows sevenblocks, the exogenous variables and parameters that are entered in each block,and the variables that are transferred between blocks. The model is depicted as asimultaneous equations system that determines a unique solution based on thegiven exogenous variables and parameters. The figure focuses only on CO2 emissions from energy consumption, but it can also be used to handle other greenhouse gases and other environmental load (for example, atmospheric pollutants).

Stage 2 Searching for a Roadmap
In the second stage of the process, a roadmap leading to the society depicted in
the scenario is established. The basic approach is to determine what type ofmeasures should be implemented and when they should be implemented, inorder to arrive at the dissemination rate for the direct measures in the target
society. It should be recognized that achieving the dissemination rate for the
direct measures in the targeted society will be no easy task. For this reason, thegovernment must formulate a plan and implement measures in accordance withthat plan in order to encourage the dissemination of direct measures. For example, a program which provides subsidy for the purchase of ecologically friendly
vehicles in order to encourage the dissemination of such vehicles could be introduced.
In this stage, measures are established to disseminate the direct measures
identified in the first stage, and the period of time needed for implementation ofeach measure in order to achieve the low carbon targets is calculated. It is also inthis stage that the emissions reductions for each direct measure identified in the
ExSS model are allocated to the measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

100% implementation of the measure.
- Shortest implementation period: The shortest time thought necessary for
100% implementation of the measure.
- Earliest starting year: The earliest year in which measure implementation can
begin. Implementation of the measure cannot begin prior to this year.
- Necessary prior measure: Another measure whose 100% implementation isneeded prior to the implementation of a certain measure. For example,"sidewalk widening work" is a necessary pre-existing measure for "use of pedestrian transit malls."- Necessary parallel measure: Another measure needed for 100% implementation of a certain measure. The more effective the parallel measure is, the greater
the effectiveness of the measure in question will be. For example, "subsidy program for purchase of environmentally friendly vehicles” is a parallel measure for"dissemination of environmentally friendly vehicles."An upper limit is also established for the total amount of effort that can be
expended each year.
The team conducted interviews at the Kyoto City Office regarding these values
and established values that are thought to be appropriate at this point in time.
(3) Prepare a schedule for implementation of measures
Based on the exogenous variables and parameters established in (1) and (2),calculate the period of time needed for implementation of each measure, using
the backcasting tool (BCT). The BCT establishes the difference between total
effectiveness and total effort as a target function and uses mixed integer programming (MIP) to maximize this value. Fig. 10 shows the structure of a BCT.
(4) Propose a roadmap
The BCT calculates the period of time needed for implementation of all of theenvisioned measures in order to arrive at the target society in the future, basedon a limited amount of expendable effort. Moreover, by also incorporating benefits other than reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that result from the measures, it is able to take into consideration the priority of each measure for the
local government. This makes it possible to propose this roadmap to serve as afoundation when the local government prepares actual medium- and long-termplans aimed at the achievement of a low carbon society.

(1) Establish measures
First, establish the measures which are needed to disseminate the direct measures envisioned for the targeted society. To establish measures, first think ofpossible barriers to the dissemination of the direct measures, and propose ameasure to remove those barriers wherever they are present. Next, determine
whether there will be any barriers to the implementation of that measure. Repeat
this process until all barriers have been removed. If there is already a short-termplan in the target region, you may also refer to the measures in that plan.
(2) Define the requirements for measures
Define the requirements for each of the measures established in (1). The necessary requirements are as follows.
- Direct reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: The greenhouse gas reductions
obtained through 100% implementation of the measure (kt-CO2/year). Use thevalue estimated using the ExSS model- Effort needed to implement measure: The effort that must be expended to
begin 100% implementation of the measure (initial input).
- Effort needed to continue measure: The effort that must be expended eachyear in order to continue 100% implementation of the measure.
- Integrated effect of measure implementation: Effects (relative value) of measure other than direct and indirect reductions in greenhouse gas emissions during

Effect of measure
i in the target
year

Effect of othermeasureGHG emissions
reduction by measure iin the target year

Year tmeasure i

Earliest starting yearof measure i
Shortest implemented
period of measure i

Resource needed
to continue
measure i

GHG emissions
reduction

Resource needed
to implement
measure i

Resource formeasure i

Exogenous
variables
Parameters
Endogenous
variables

Effect ofmeasure i

Resource needed tocontinue measure i when
100% implemented

Upper limit ofresource in year t

Resource needed to
implement measurei 100%

Figure 10 BCT calculation flow
22

Statistical Data Collection and Estimation
A large volume of socioeconomic data and data on energy consumption andprovision is needed to determine the present state of CO2 emissions and calibrate
the ExSS model. As Kyoto is a city designated by government ordinance, datacollection was comparatively easy. However, Kyoto City does not prepare andpublish the interindustry tables needed for an analysis of industrial structure, so
for the purposes of this study an interindustry table for industries in Kyoto in
the year 2005 was prepared independently.
Table 4 shows the sources for the statistical data used in this study. The next
page shows the interindustry tables for 2005 and 2030 that were estimated(consolidated into 15 sectors), in addition to energy consumption.

Table 4 sources
for the statistical data Year
Statistics
Kyoto city regional accounting

FY2005

Kyoto prefecture regional accounting

FY2005

Industrial Statistics

2005

Establishment and enterprise census

2004

population Census

2005

Kei-han-shin parson trip survey

2000

Kei-han-shin commodity distribution survey

2005

School basic survey

FY2005

Kyoto prefecture Input-Output table

2000

Kyoto city energy balance table

2000

Compendium of energy statistics

FY2000

Kyoto city Input-Output table

2000

Kyoto city Input-Output table

2005

Input-Output table (Japan)

2000

Input-Output table (Japan)

2005

Survey on motor vehicle transport

FY2005Monthly report of number of automobiles

Mar. 2004

Kyoto city compendium of statistics

2006

Annual statistics on railway and transport

2005

The survey of transport energy

2007

Land and transport statistics directory

2005

Kyoto city regional new-energy survey report

2000

Table 5 IO table of Kyoto City in 2005 (Unit: bill yen)

0
0
0
67
0
21
1
5
11
8
11
0
13
0
3
142
112
254

0
0
2
6
204
102
1
12
37
13
17
54
32
0
7
487
469
956

2
0
1
5
4
86
2
8
13
6
11
10
18
0
3
167
159
326

1
0
1
3
8
127
1
4
29
8
32
2
38
0
3
256
210
466

Total input (domestic production)

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
1
1
22
12
0
2
0
8
17
5
15
1
9
14
32
7
2
19
3
7 134 109
5 105
27
5
6
1
30 103
86
0
3
1
2
18
13
90 470 274
198 1001 1365
288 1470 1640

13

14

15

0
3
0
9
1
4
4
30
7
13
39 112
4
12
13
50
13
42
43
27
55
50
5
13
66
79
4
12
4
8
255 465
398 1057
653 1522

0
0
1
31
55
20
1
6
18
46
29
3
62
5
6
283
371
655

17
93
3
8
1
25
5
41
49
38
39
2
39
22
7
391
501
891

0
0
1
12
1
9
0
1
7
14
6
3
3
1
0
58
19
78

120
195
33
228
297
646
52
210
293
469
419
113
606
50
85
3814
6124
9938

13

14

15

31
250
44
14
111
98
0
131
427
973
180
320
47
468
0
3093

0
5
0
0
0
0
0
21
0
0
0
925
0
0
0
951

2
0
3
0
389
24
414
0
111
0
8
0
71
0
0
1022

4 - 139496 - 348106
- 61
153 - 141846 - 686
256 - 6980045 - 119982 - 342211
- 13
238 - 192174
- 10
174 - 243
585 - 2127
- 144276 - 3218

4
200
35
11
88
78
0
191
624
1421
262
468
68
684
0
4134

0
5
0
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
1022
0
0
0
1051

3
0
5
0
514
32
465
0
147
0
11
0
93
0
0
1270

5 - 15019668 - 364
775
151
- 63
172
207 - 185
337
1139 - 857 1278
345 - 854
431
0
0
536
61 - 158
399
1420 - 477 2101
284
- 19 2335
321 - 263
895
237
- 13 1863
234 - 327883
837 - 309 1280
0
- 20
96
5908 - 4058 13400

Total input(domestic
production)

0
0
12
2
0
22
0
4
5
5
3
1
3
0
1
58
67
125

12

11

Import

95
92
1
26
0
52
1
13
44
10
26
7
34
0
9
410
188
598

10

Export

1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
7
10
17

09

Export01 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
02 Food Products and Beverages
03 Textiles
04 Pulp, Paper and Printing
05 Machinery
06 Other Manufacturing and Mining
07 Construction
08 Utility
09 Wholesale and Retail Trade
10 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
11 Transport, Communication and Broadcasting
12 Public Service
13 Business Service
14 Personal Service
15 Others
Total intermediate input
Total value added

08

Fixed capitalformation

07

Fixed capitalformation

06

Government
consunmption

05

Government
consunmption

04

Privateconsumption

03

Privateconsumption

02

Total
intermediate
input

01

Total
intermediate
input

No.

17
598
125
254
956
326
466
288
1470
1640
653
1522
655
891
78
9938

Table 6 IO table of Kyoto City in 2030 (Unit: bill yen)
02

03

01 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
02 Food Products and Beverages
03 Textiles
04 Pulp, Paper and Printing
05 Machinery
06 Other Manufacturing and Mining
07 Construction
08 Utility
09 Wholesale and Retail Trade
10 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
11 Transport, Communication and Broadcasting
12 Public Service
13 Business Service
14 Personal Service
15 Others
Total intermediate input
Total value added

2
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
8
11
19

124
119
2
34
0
67
1
16
58
13
34
10
44
0
12
532
244
775

1
0
15
2
0
32
1
6
7
6
4
1
4
0
1
80
92
172

Total input (domestic production)

04

05

06

07

0
0
0
0
0
2
88
8
0 273
28 136
1
2
6
16
15
49
11
18
15
23
1
72
18
43
0
0
4
9
188 651
149 627
337 1278

2
0
1
6
5
114
2
11
17
7
14
13
24
0
4
222
210
431

1
0
2
3
9
146
1
4
33
9
37
3
43
0
3
294
242
536

08

09

10

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
1
2
31
16
1
3
0
11
24
7
20
1
13
19
46
10
3
27
5
10 192 156
7 150
38
7
9
2
42 147 120
0
4
2
3
26
19
124 671 388
275 1430 1947
399 2101 2335

11

12

0
4
0
11
1
5
5
38
9
16
53 137
6
15
17
61
17
51
58
34
76
61
6
16
90
96
5
15
5
11
349 570545 1293
895 1863

0
25
0 134
2
5
42
11
74
1
27
36
1
7
8
59
24
71
62
55
38
57
4
3
84
56
7
32
8
10
382 563501 717883 1280

0
158
0
267
1
44
17
304
2
394
12
830
0
70
1
282
10
387
17
649
7
564
3
149
3
815
1
68
0
115
73 5095
22 8305
96 13400

Total input(domestic
production)

01

ImportNo.

Table 7 Energy consumption (Unit: ktoe)
Total

Electricity

0 24 126
9
0
3
4
0
0
3 29
0
0 34 247
0
0
1 27
0
2
1 44
0
0
4 46
0
0
8 15
0
0
0
0
0
0
9 45
2
0
6 31
2
0
1
4
0
0 11 56
3
0
5 15
1
0
8 41
2
0
0
2
0
0 251
0 62
0 150
0 47
2 517 733 128

Solar & Wind

Biomass

0 267 556
0
0
9
0
8
44
0
4 317
0
8
39
0 48 106
0 24
92
0
0
32
0
0
0
0 58 186
0 39 12606
18
0 73 234
0 15
55
0 52 16802
80 36 572
01 270
0 641 2834

Natural gas

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Petroleum

Coal

Total

0 59 230
0
8
0
0
7 29
0 95 219
0
2 30
1
4 52
0 11 57
0 27
5
0
0
0
0 73 55
0 50 3807
50 92 69
0 26 14
0 66 50
0
3
2
0 537
0
0 270
0
1 1336 856

23Electricity

Solar & Wind

0 269 560
0
0
8
0
6
34
0
3 231
0
6
30
0 36
79
0 18
70
0
0
28
0
0
0
0 60 194
0 41 13206
190 61 196
0 17
58
0 36 11701
6
0 39 582
00 202
0 601 2546

Biomass

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Natural gas

0 59 232
0
7
0
0
6 22
0 69 159
0
1 22
1
3 39
0
8 43
0 24
4
0
0
0
0 76 57
0 52 3908
60 77 58
0 26 15
0 46 35
0
3
2
0 543
0
0 202
0
1 1209 735

2030 Corrective measures case

Petroleum

Public Service
Business Service
Personal Service
Others
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Total

Total

Transport, Communication and BroadcastingElectricity

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

Solar & Wind

Construction
Utility
Wholesale and Retail Trade

Biomass

Other Manufacturing and Mining

Natural gas

Food Products and Beverages
TextilesPulp, Paper and Printing
Machinery

Petroleum

Coal

Residential
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing2030 Frozen at current levels case
Coal

2005

27 173 359
0
0
7
0
7
39
0
3 285
0
8
35
0 47
93
0 23
73
0
0
24
0
0
0
7 33
97
5 23
66
1
3
9
9 42 121
2
9
31
7 30
87
0
1
4
0 42 355
0
1 198
58 445 1882

A roadmap towards Low Carbon Kyoto
August 2009
Research Team of Sustainable Society Kyoto
Members
Fumiaki Utaka (Kyoto City Environmental Policy Bureau)
Kei Gomi (Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University)
Kenro Taura (NPO Kiko Network)
Masaaki Naito (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Instituite)
Masahiro Wakabayashi (Kyoto City Environmental Policy Bureau)
Takashi Fukuda (Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University)
Tamaki Morioka (Kyoto City Environmental Policy Bureau)
Tetsuji Ura (Kyoto City Environmental Policy Bureau)
Yuki Ochi (Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University)
Yuzuru Matsuoka (Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University)