Low Carbon Society Scenario Towards 2030

GuangZhou
A win-win strategy for climate change andsustainable development of regional economy

Energy Strategy Research Centre, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,
Chinese Academy of Science
Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission
Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University

May, 2013

Preface
Global warming is an important issue affecting human survival and development. Cities account for
more than half of the world’s population, consume 75% of the world’s energy output, and emit around
70% of global greenhouse gases (GHGs). It is therefore essential to consider low-carbon development
at the urban level from a long-term perspective when facing the urgent and continuous challenge ofclimate change. As fossil fuels are the main carbon source of cities, the question of how to control CO2
emissions from energy activities is crucial in order to fight climate change at the urban level. However,
the existing studies focus more on global and national scenarios and less on urban scenarios from along-term standpoint. We take Guangzhou as a case study to demonstrate the calculation of current
carbon emissions and prediction of future emissions at the city level using the Extended Snapshot Tool
(ExSS) developed by Kyoto University, Japan, in order to design a quantitative future scenario for a
low-carbon society.
This study proposes a low-carbon city scenario–namely, a win-win strategy of carbon emission
mitigation and economic development–for Guangzhou City towards 2030. The results provide areference for the policy-making process to achieve low-carbon development by showing the potential
of individual countermeasures. It is our hope that this research report will provide a direction among
stakeholders for further intensive discussions and preparation of the roadmap for Guangzhou Green
City development.
This brochure was prepared mainly by Kyoto University researchers and the Guangzhou Institute ofEnergy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences (GIEC, CAS) in collaboration with NIES, Japan.
We wish to express our gratitude to Professor Hu Xiulian and Professor Jiang Kejun of the Energy
Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission (ERI, NDRC) for their valuable
information and comments.

ZHAO DAI QINGYUZURU MATSUOKA

Professor

Professor

Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,

Kyoto University

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Contents

Preface ........................................................................................................................... 2
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 1
1.

Concept and Development of Low-Carbon City ..................................................... 3
1.1 Background of low-carbon city development ..................................................................... 3
1.2 The concept and basic component of a low carbon city ...................................................... 4
1.3 Low-carbon city development in China .............................................................................. 4

2.

Guangzhou and Its Potential as a Low-Carbon City .............................................. 5
2.1 Overview of Guangzhou ..................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Co-benefits of transforming Guangzhou into a low-carbon city ......................................... 7

3.

Scenario Analysis of Guangzhou as a Low-Carbon Society .................................. 8
3.1 Socio-economic assumptions for Guangzhou in 2030 ........................................................ 9
3.2 Energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 ................................................................... 11

4.

Actions for Guangzhou Low-carbon Social development .................................... 13
Action 1: Convenient transport ............................................................................................... 14
Action 2: Green building......................................................................................................... 15
Action 3: Decarbonation of industry ....................................................................................... 16
Action 4: Fuel switch .............................................................................................................. 17
Action 5: Low-carbon Electricity............................................................................................ 18

Appendix: The Methodology for Guangzhou Low-carbon society Analysis .............. 19
1. A procedure to create LCS scenarios................................................................................... 19
2. Quantitative projection tool “Extended Snapshot Tool” ................................................. 19

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Executive Summary
This

study

proposesacity

a background, the objective of this study is toscenario–namely, a win-win strategy of carbon

seek a possible future vision of Guangzhou as aemission

low-carbon city by means of a scenario approach

mitigation

low-carbon

andeconomicdevelopment–for Guangzhou City towards 2030.

using quantitative modelling.

The term low-carbon city refers to urban

The Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) was applied

development patterns and social development

as a tool for quantification of the future

approaches based on a low-carbon economy anddevelopment of Guangzhou in 2030. This tool

green lifestyles and behaviours of the citizens. A

projects

city can realize the reduction of carbon

socio-economic variables, energy demand, GHG

emissions

economicemissions, and diffusion of mitigation options indevelopment patterns, consumption behaviours,

order to achieve an emission target or assess thelifestyle concepts, and technological innovations.

potential for emission reduction by various

However, this requires a blueprint for thecountermeasures..

throughchangesin

consistentandquantitative

construction of a low-carbon society at the
government and management level. Against such

Table ES1. Summary of main variables
Variable

Unit

2005

2030BAU

2030CM

2030BAU/2005

2030CM 2030CM/2005/2030BAU

Population

million

9.6

13.1

13.1

1.37

1.37

1.00

Householdmillion

2.9

4.8

4.8

1.66

1.66

1.00

GDP

billion RMB

1.00

506

2,501

2,501

4.94

4.94

Primary industry

13

28

22

2.19

1.70

0.78

Secondary industry

204

868

681

4.26

3.34

0.78

Tertiary industry

289

1,605

1,798

5.55

6.22

1.12

Passenger transport demand billion passenger-km

173

232

231

1.34

1.34

1.00

Freight transport demandbillion ton-km

273

1,155

863

4.23

3.16

0.75
0.64

Final energy demand

million tce

34

115

74

3.37

2.17

CO2 emissions

million tCO2

98

336

165

3.43

1.69

0.49

CO2 intensity

kgCO2/RMB

0.19

0.13

0.07

0.69

0.34

0.49

Per captia CO2 emissions

tCO2

10

26

13

2.51

1.23

0.49

1

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Table ES1 shows the projected results of main

scenarios, despite a shift in the industrial

variables including socio-economic variables,

structure to commercial and service industries.

energy demand, and CO2 emissions. Future

Improving the energy efficiency of the industrial

socio-economic development is based on recent

sector is therefore crucial for the development oftrendsGuangzhou as a low-carbon city, as well as

anddevelopment.

officialtargets

Projected

CO2

of

economicemissionsinenergyefficiency

improvement

and

fuel

Guangzhou in 2030 will be 336 MtCO2 underswitching in the power supply sector.

the 2030 Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, a

The results obtained in this study provide a

243% increase from the 2005 level. Under thereference for the policy-making process towards

2030 Countermeasures (CM) scenario, emissions

the achievement of low-carbon development by

in 2030 can be reduced by 170 MtCO2 to 165

showing

MtCO2, a 51% decrease from the BAU level (seecountermeasures. Using the quantitative results

Figure ES1). CO2 emissions from industry

presented here, it will be possible to discussaccount for the largest share of total emissions

choices of countermeasures and priority options

under both the 2030 BAU and 2030 CM

based on scientific and technological analysis.

thepotentialofCO2 emissions and emission reductions by Actions(million tCO2)

350
Action 1 Convenient Transport

300

Action 2 Green Building

250

Action 3 Decarbonation of Industry
Action 4 Fuel Switch

200

Action 5 Low carbon Electricity

150

Emission

100

50

0
2005

2030
BAU

2030
CM

Figure ES1. Summary of GHG emission and emission reduction by Actions2

individualGuangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

1. Concept and Development of Low-Carbon City
rapidly disseminated at all levels of society,1.1 Background of low-carbon cityreflecting the urgent need to promote green

development

lifestyles and to develop a management modelWith the dawn of the 21st century, issues offor a low-carbon society,energy security and global warming due toMore than half of the world’s population
anthropogenic GHG emissions have aroused
currently lives in urban areas, which account for
wide public concern. According to research by
only 20% of the global land area, and 70% of themeteorological institutions, the average global
world’s population is projected to live in cities
land surface temperature has risen by about
by

2050.

Production,

consumption,living0.74°C within the past 100 years. It is predictedactivities, and associated energy consumptionthat the global land surface temperature will rise
will mainly take place in these cities. Cities willby 1.1°C to 6.4°C by the end of the 21st century.
therefore become increasingly important forWith the warming climate, extreme weather
human progress in general, and climate change
conditions have been occurring more frequently,
mitigation in particular. One study has showncausing a succession of natural disasters. These
that the economic activities carried out within
natural disasters may cause large population
urban areas account for 75% of global energy
migrations and threaten the economic andconsumption and almost 80% of the world’s
political stability of various countries.
GHG emissions. Cities have become not only
Among all of the possible actions to tackle thisthe major source of GHG emissions, but also
problem,theconceptof

low-carbon
places vulnerable to the effects of climate

development, which aims to reduce the humanchange. Cites are therefore key players in“footprint”, is receiving greater recognition
solving the issue of climate change, one of thearound the world and has become a goal of themost complicated and urgent problems facing
new era. A low-carbon economy is defined as an
the world.
economy in which resource consumption and
The development strategies of cities, especiallyenvironmental

impactsarereducedwhile
the emerging “factory cities”, have become theachieving higher economic profits. Based on thisfocus of global low-carbon development in orderprinciple, the concept of low carbon is being
to3

tackleclimatechangeandshifting

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

development priorities. Academia, internationalcountry, China has shown a positive attitude onorganizations,

have

the international stage, announcing before theconsequently been paying increasing attention to

COP15 meeting in Copenhagen its goal of

the concept of low-carbon cities..

reducing GHG emissions per unit GDP by 40 toandgovernments

45% of 2005 levels by 2020.

1.2 The concept and basic component of alow carbon city

Since the reform and opening up of China, its
The term low-carbon city refers to urban

economydevelopment patterns and social development

technological limits and development methods,

approaches based on a low-carbon economy andhowever, issues of low efficiency and highgreen lifestyles and behaviours of the citizens.

pollution are concealed behind the flourishingThis requires a blueprint for the construction of aeconomy. Higher demand for housing, transport,

low-carbon society at the government andand electricity are causing increases in bothmanagement level. A city can realize theenergy consumption and GHG emissions, andreduction of carbon emissions through changes

the conflict between economic development andin economic development patterns, consumption

natural resources has become increasingly

behaviours, lifestyle concepts, and technologicalprominent. How to solve the problem of a highly

innovations. A low-carbon city is constructedcarbon-dependent

from various components such as a low-carbon

energy-intensive development has become one

economy, low-carbon transport, low-carbonof the greatest challenges for China. Low-carbon

buildings, a low-carbon built environment,

development is no doubt a new pathway for

low-carbon

low-carbon

sustainable urban development. A number offamilies. With the combination of city-specificplans for low-carbon “experimental cities” aredevelopment goals and constraints, a low-carbon

gradually being developed. Currently, Shanghai,

strategy should be promoted step by step.

Baoding, Guiyang and some other cities arecommunities,

and

has

grown

rapidly.

economy

and

Due

to

highlyconsidering the construction of low-carbon

1.3 Low-carbon city development in China

cities.
As a developing country, China is in an era offast urbanization and its total GHG emissions are
increasing. At the same time, as a responsible4

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

2. Guangzhou and Its Potential as a Low-Carbon City
2.1 Overview of Guangzhou

Economy:Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province,

As the centre of politics, economy, culture,technology, and transport in southern China,

is located in the northern part of the Pearl River

Guangzhou is an open city on the coast and a

Delta in southern China, not far from Hongpilot area of national comprehensive reform. It is
Kong and Macau. The city has 10 districts andalso one of the most economically active cities
two satellite cities in a total area of 7,434.4
in the country. In 2009, Guangzhou’s GDP
square kilometres. It had a residential population

reached 9,138 billion RMB, accounting for 2.7%of 10.3 million in 2010 and has maintained anof the country’s total GDP. Tertiary industry has

average annual growth rate of 2% over the past

become the focus of economic growth.

30 years. Guangzhou is the third-largest city in
China, after Beijing and Shanghai.

1000
900

GDP (Billion RMB)

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1978 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Fig. 1: Guangzhou GDP between 1978-2009 (at current prices)(Data Source: Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook)5

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Energy:communications, and petrochemical industries

Guangzhou’s energy consumption per GDP ishold a share of one-third of all industries located

40% lower than China’s overall level because of

there.

the reformation of its industrial structure andConstruction:

improved energy efficiency. It is in the leading

Urbanization has been accelerating in line withposition in China in terms of energy efficiency.

the steady economic growth. The construction

However, the increase in total energy demandindustry has developed rapidly and maintained

has not been effectively curbed due to rapid

long-term prosperity. The average housing floor

overall economic growth. In 2009, its final

space per capita increased from 13.1 m2 to 20.4

energy consumption was 54.5 million tons of

m2 between 2000 and 2009, and the total area ofcoal equivalent (TCE), a 12.2% increase

public buildings has increased to 1.2 billion m2.

compared with 2008. Guangzhou’s increasing

Electrification of buildings has diffused widely,rate of resource consumption exceeds that ofas is also the case for construction equipment

China overall. Coal and oil respectively accountand household electric appliances.

for 16% and 32% of energy consumption, LPG

Transport:

and natural gas for 4%, and electricity for 40%.

Transport is a basic infrastructure for economic

The excessive use of coal and oil has resulted indevelopment. Guangzhou’s transport industry

great pressure on the environment.

has experienced strong growth in recent years.

Industry:

The city had 9,089 km of highways, 1,468 km of

Guangzhou is an important and comprehensive

railways, 855 km of inland waterways, and 1.1

industrial centre in the country. Through its years

million km of civil aviation routes in 2009. The

of development, the city has formed an open andtotal volume of passenger transport is 145.4

modernbillion passenger-kilometres, and that of freightindustrial

structure,

with

the

development of a variety of products, integrated

transport

assembly lines, and a capacity for R&D to

ton-kilometres.

achieve product innovation. Guangzhou has 34

railways, subways, and other rail transit systemsof the 40 categories of industry in China.

have increased, although the integration ofGuangzhou’s industrial added value accounts forvarious transport modes is still insufficient andmore than one-third that of the whole city. Theenergy-intensive road transport still holds a large

automotive

share.

manufacturing,

electronics,
6

is

about

217.6

Investmentsbillioninfreight

high-speed

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

2.2

Co-benefitsoftransforming

The development of a low-carbon city can

Guangzhou into a low-carbon cityalso reduce local air pollution. Coal and oil
currently account for about 70% of the total

Besides mitigation of climate change andenergy supply, while LPG and natural gas

contribution to the national goal of GHG

hold a share of around 5% and renewable

emission reduction as a leading city in theenergy less than 1%. The combustion ofcountry’s advancement, the development of

conventional fossil fuels is the major

Guangzhou as a low-carbon city has a variety ofsource of SO2, NOx, and other air pollutant

co-benefits, as follows.

emissions.

The development of a low-carbon city can
mitigate increases in energy demand. WithThe objective of this study is to seek a possible

the increasing prices of energy and otherfuture vision of Guangzhou as a low-carbon city

resources, the city has been suffering fromenergyandresource

shortages.

by a scenario approach using quantitativeThe

modelling. This report is an output of purely

stabilization of energy demand is crucial

academic research activity and does not present

for the development of a city likeany authorized or official policy decisions.

Guangzhou.
The development of a low-carbon cityenhances the competitiveness of industries.
With the increasing pressure to reduce
global GHG emissions and the introductionof carbon pricing, the improvement ofenergy efficiency and the development andutilization of renewable resources havebecomeincreasingly

importantforindustries in Guangzhou. By promoting its
transformation into a low-carbon city,
Guangzhou

canstrengthenitscompetitiveness and promote new sourcesof economic growth.

7Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

3. Scenario Analysis of Guangzhou as a Low-Carbon Society
In this study, the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)

become matured and available in the decade

was applied for quantification of the future

after 2020, 2030 was selected as the target year

development of Guangzhou in 2030. ExSS wasfor the low-carbon society scenarios. Twodeveloped by Kyoto University and NIES, Japan.

different types of development scenarios wereThis tool projects consistent and quantitative

established: 2030 BAU (Business as Usual) andsocio-economic variables, energy demand, GHG

2030 CM (Counter Measures). Due to theemissions, and diffusion of mitigation options indifficulty of obtaining data, some of the data

order to achieve an emission target. We also aim

used in this study had to be estimated by thetoresearch team, and thus the study may involve adevelopasuitablemethodology

forlow-carbon society research for Chinese cities,

certain degree of subjectivity.

so that other cities can benefit from it.
The year 2005 was selected as the base year.
Since

more

low-carbon

technologies

will

Table 1. Quantitative socio-economic assumptions in 2030
Indicator

Assumption in 2030（data in 2005）

Trends between 2005 and 2030
Growth rate at 1.2% per annum based on

Population“The

13.1 Million (9.6 Million)

EleventhFive-Year

Plan

of

Guangzhou National Economy and Social
Development”

Demographic
composition
Urbanization rate
Average number of
persons per household

age 0-14:13.5%(14.8%)
age 15-64:71%(77.6%)

Birth and death rates are declined

age 65 and over: 15.5%(7.6%)
95% (82.4%)

Urbanization increases

Urban: 2.6 (3.2)

Significant decrease in average size ofRural: 3.0 (3.6)

householdGrowth rate at 7% per annum, and willGDP

2501 Billion RMB (506 RMB)

focus on the development of tertiaryindustry, especially in the CM scenario

The data source of 2005: Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook 2006; the 1% population sample survey bulletin of
Guangzhou in 2005

8

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

3.1 Socio-economic assumptions forplan, the average annual growth rate of real GDP

Guangzhou in 2030

is assumed to be 6.7% from 2005 to 2030. The

Based

on

the

currentsocio-economic

real GDP of Guangzhou in 2030 is estimated todevelopment of Guangzhou, the city’s future

be approximately 2.5 trillion RMB

economic development in 2030 was projected.

Industry:

This subsection presents the depicted future

ExSS applies input-output analysis in order topicture of the economy, society, commercial

determine the future industrial structure. Basedactivity, industry, and transport in Guangzhou inon the input-output tables for Guangdong

2030. A summary of the future socio-economic

Province in 2005 and assumptions of futureassumptions is shown in Table 1.

changes in the demand structure, the projected

Demographics:

industrial outputs are 98 billion RMB for

Based on Guangzhou’s population history fromprimary industry, 5,391 billion for secondary

1978 to 2009 and the trends in its rates of birth,industry, and 4,645 billion for tertiary industry.

death, immigration, and emigration, it is

The respective shares of the three industries are

expected that the city’s population will reach

1:53:46. Although their output is increasing in

13.1 million in 2030, the number of households

terms of absolute value, the shares of primarywill rise to 5 million, and the average household

and secondary industries will continue to follow

size will decrease from 3.2 persons to 2.6.

a declining trend while tertiary industry is

Economy:expected to contribute more to Guangzhou’sConsidering the current trend of economic

economy in the future.

No.of household

5

10

4

8
3
6
2

4

1

2
0
Rural
2005

Urban

14

2,500

12
10

2,000

8
1,500
6
1,000
GDP
Population

500
0

0
Urban

3,000

4
2
0

2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029

Population (million)

126

GDP (Billion RMB)

Population

Number of household (million)

14

Population (Million)

growth in Guangzhou and its future development

Rural
2030

Fig. 2 Projection of population and household

Fig. 3 Projection of population and GDP growth

number in 2030

by 2030
9

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Under the 2030 BAU scenario, as a result of theTransport:

continuation of the current trend, passenger
With the ongoing development of the economy,transport demand in Guangzhou City will further
the share of vehicular and air transport will
increase and more frequent traffic congestion
continue to increase. Based on the future
will be caused. Under the 2030 CM scenario, on
population and trends in transport from 1978 to
the other hand, the share of private vehicles will
2009, passenger transport demand is expected tobe reduced by 20% compared with the BAU
increase from 173 billion passenger-kilometres
scenario. Instead, the share of bus and rail
(2005) to 236 billion passenger-kilometrestransport will increase by 15%, and that of(2030). At the same time, due to the growth oftransport by bicycles and walking will increase
manufacturing industries, corresponding freightby 5%. Freight demand will continue to increasetransport demand will also increase and reachdue to the growth of manufacturing industries.
1,155 billion ton-kilometres in 2030 (Figure 5).

Valu added (billion RMB)

3,000
Tertiary industry
2,500
Secondary industry
2,000
Primary industry
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005

2030
BAU

2030
CM

Fig. 4 Projected value added by industries

60
50
40

180

Bicycle

160

Walk

140

Airway120

Waterway

100

Motobike

80

30
Train

60

20

Bus

10

Passenger
car

40
20

0

0

2005

2030
BaU

2030
CM

2005

(a)

2030
BaU

1400

Freight transport demand (billion t-km)

Passenger transport demand (billion p-km)

Crossborder

Passenger transport demand (billion p-km)

Domestic

70

1200

AirwayWaterway
Train

1000

Truck

800
600
400
200

2030
CM

Passenger

0
2005

(b)

Fig. 5 Projected transport demand in the scenarios

10

2030
BaU

Freight

2030
CMGuangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

3.2

Energydemandandunder the 2030 CM scenario, the primary energy

GHG

supply is projected to be reduced by 44%

emissions in 2030

compared with the BAU scenario, while the
Final energy demand, primary energy supply,
share of renewable energy will significantly
and corresponding GHG emissions in 2030 wereincrease. Projected CO2 emissions in Guangzhou
projected by a bottom-up type energy demand
will be 336 MtCO2 under the 2030 BAU
and supply model in ExSS. Final energy demand
scenario. Under the 2030 CM scenario, on theunder the 2030 BAU scenario will be 115
other hand, the projected emissions are 165
million TCE, a 3.4-fold increase compared with
MtCO2, a reduction of 170 MtCO2 from the2005. Under the CM scenario, on the other hand,
BAU level. CO2 emissions from industry will
final energy demand will be 74 million TCE, aaccount for the largest share of total emissions in
36% reduction from the BAU level. As can be2030 under both the BAU and CM scenarios,
seen in Figure 6(a), the industrial sector has thedespite the shift in the industrial structure tolargest share of energy demand under both thecommercial and service industries. Improving
BAU and CM scenarios, accounting for more
the energy efficiency of the industrial sector isthan half of total final energy demand. Under thethereforeCM

scenario,

however,since

crucial forthedevelopment of

low-carbon
Guangzhou as a low-carbon city.

measures are introduced to industry, the shares
The contributions of each countermeasure toof the commercial and residential sectors will
reduce CO2 emissions are shown in Figure 8.
increase. Figure 6(b) shows how the energy
The industrial sector shows high potential forsystem of Guangzhou will rely more on coal andmitigation because of its already large emissions.
oil under the 2030 BAU scenario. In contrast,
160

Residential

Primary Energy demand (million TCE)

Energy demand (million TCE)

120

Commercial

100

Transport
Industry

80
60
40
20
0
2005

2030
BAU

Others140

Biomass120

Solar/Wind

100

Nuclear
Hydro

80

Heat

60

Gas

40

Oil
Coal

20
0
2005

2030
CM

(a) Final energy demand

2030
BAU

2030
CM

(b) Primary energy supply

Fig. 6 Projected final energy demand and primary energy supply in 2030
11

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

CO2 emissions (million tCO2)

350

Residential
Commercial

300

Transport
250

Industry

200
150
100
50
0
2005

2030
BAU

2030
CM

Fig. 7 Projected CO2 emission in 2030

Freighttransport

EE & FS in power supply
Fuel shift
EE improvement
Modal shift

Passenger
transport

EE & FS in power supply
Fuel shift
EE improvement

Residential

EE & FS in power supply

Industry

EE & FS in power supply

Commercial

Modal shift

Renewable energy
EE improvement

Renewable energy
EE improvement
EE & FS in power supply
EE improvement
Structurechange
0

5

10

15

20
25
million tCO2

30

35

Fig. 8 Contributions of each countermeasure to reduce CO2 emission

1240

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

4. Actions for Guangzhou Low-carbon Social development
The preceding section outlines a set of low-carbon measures that achieve a 55% reduction of CO2
emissions from the 2030 BAU level. This section proposes five actions corresponding to thesemeasures (Figure 9).

Convenient
Transport18%

Low carbon
Electricity
34%

Fuel Switch3%
Decarbonationof Industry
20%

Green Building
25%

Fig. 9 Share of CO2 emission reduction by “Five Actions”
Table 2 GHG emission reduction actions
No.

Action name

Measures
Modal shift of passenger transport

Action 1

Convenient

Efficiency improvement of passenger transport

Transport

Modal shift of freight transport
Efficiency improvement of freight transport
Efficiency improvement of office equipment

Action 2

Green Building

Distributed renewable energy utilization of commercial sector
Efficiency improvement of household appliances
Distributed renewable energy utilization of household sector

Action 3

Decarbonation

Energy efficiency improvementof Industry

Industrial restructuring
Industry
Commercial

Action 4

Fuel Switch

Residential
Passenger transport
Freight transport

Action 5

Low-carbon

Efficiency improvement of power plants

Electricity

Fuel switch of electricity generation

13

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Action 1: Convenient transport

Convenient
Transport
18%

This action comprises efficiency improvement of
Low carbon
Electricity
34%

vehicles and a modal shift from private vehicles
to public transport. It requires new traffic
management systems. The CO 2 emission

Fuel Switch3%
Decarbonationof Industry
20%

reduction from this action contributes to 18% ofGreen Building25%

the total reduction. For the passenger transport
Fig. 10 Contribution of CO2 minigation

sector, under the 2030 CM scenario, in order toby Action 1
mitigate CO 2 e missio ns and d evelop a
In order to develop convenient transport, it isconvenient transport system, countermeasuresnecessary to optimize the transport structure.
for such a modal shift are introduced. In addition,
This means giving priority to the development ofan approximately 60% energy efficiency
urban public transport, speeding up bus rapid
improvement of vehicles is assumed. In thetransitandrailtransitconstruction,andfreight transport sector, we have assumed that
accelerating the development of rail andthe share of road transport will be reduced bymaritime transport to promote the coordinated
27% compared with the BAU scenario in 2030,
development of various modes of transport. At
while the shares of rail and maritime transport
the same time, it is necessary to promote
will increase by 22% and 5%, respectively. We
alternative fuels and new energy vehicles and tohave also assumed that the efficiency of freightstrengthen the organization and management oftransport will improve by about 60% throughtransport, in order to improve the efficiency of
impro vements in engine efficiency andthe integrated transport system.

80%

Emission reduction contribution

Emission reduction contribution

strengthening of freight management.

60%
40%
20%
0%
Efficiency
improvement

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Efficiency
improvement

Modal shift

a. Passenger transport

Modal shift

b. Freight transport

Fig. 11 Analysis of CO2 emission reduction in transport sector

14

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Action 2: Green buildingThis action focuses on measures for efficiency

Convenient
Transport18%

Low carbon
Electricity
34%

improvement and renewable energy utilization in
the residential and commercial sectors. The CO2

Green Building
25%

Fuel Switch3%
Decarbonation ofIndustry20%

emission reduction achieved by this action
contributes to 25% of the total. Accompanying
economic growth, people’s expectations ofFig. 12 Contribution of CO2 minigation

living and working conditions are increasing.

by Action 2

Electrical equipment will become more widely
renewable energy will increase. Consequently, aand population and will consume more energy if

45% CO2 emission reduction is achieved

efficiency is not improved. For the residential

compared with the BAU scenario.

sector, under the 2030 CM scenario it is assumed

In order to realize the measures in this action, athat the efficiency of household appliances will

set of policies is required such as (1) subsidies

be improved by about 60% compared with thefor introducing distributed renewable energy

BAU scenario through technological innovations.

systems (photovoltaic and wind energy), (2)For the commercial sector, under the CM

low-interest

scenario we have assumed that the energy

energy-efficient buildings and renewable energy,

efficiency of office equipment will also beand (3) environmental performance standards for

improved and that the share of distributedand evaluation of houses and buildings.

80%

Emission reduction contribution

Emission reduction contribution

disseminated with growth in per capita income

60%
40%
20%
0%
Efficiency
improvement

Distrubited renewableenergy

loans

for

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Efficiency
improvement

a. Residential sector

investments

Distrubited renewableenergyb. Commercial sector

Fig.13 Analysis of CO2 emission reduction in building sector

15inGuangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Action 3: Decarbonation of industry
Convenient
Transport
18%

Industry is presently the sector with the largest
Low carbon
Electricity
34%

energy consumption and GHG emissions in
Guangzhou. The decarbonation of industry
comprises two main measures: improvement ofGreen Building
25%

Fuel Switch3%

the energy efficiency of industries, and industrial

Decarbonationof Industry
20%

restructuring. This action contributes 20% of thetotal CO2 emission reduction.

Fig. 14 Contribution of CO2 minigation

The measures for improvement of the energy

by Action 3

efficiency of industries include the following:
Emission reduction contribution

Optimization and innovation of industrial
technologies, equipment, and processes
Improvementofdevice-level

energyefficiency
Accelerated transformation of large-scaleequipment

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Efficiency
improvement

Strengthening of energy management

Industrial
restructuring

The measures for industrial restructuring are as
Fig. 15 Analysis of CO2 emission reduction infollows:
Eliminationofoutdatedindustry sector

production

facilities
Enhancement of the scale of industries
Conversionofenergy-intensive

investments
industries

to

from
tertiary

industries

16Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Action 4: Fuel switch
Fuel switch aims to change the fuel structure of
Low carbon
Electricity
34%

the industrial, construction, and transport sectors.

Convenient
Transport
18%

It is expected to achieve 3% of the total CO2
Green Building
25%

emission reduction. This action will also
Fuel Switch
Decarbonation of3%
Industry20%

contribute to national energy security by
diversification of energy sources. Fuel switch
here means shifting from carbon-intensive fuelsFig. 16 Potential of CO2 minigation
by Action 4

to less-intensive fuels. For example, under the2030 CM scenario, there is a movement towards
the replacement of coal and oil by natural gas,
electricity, and new and renewable energies. In
the industrial sector, the shares of natural gas
and electricity are assumed to increase by 5%
and 10%, respectively, compared with the BAU
scenario. In the building sector (residential andcommercial), the shares of natural gas andelectricity

increase

by

10%

and

20%,

respectively, as they replace oil products. In thetransport sector, the share of natural gas andbiofuel increases by 20% as a replacement for
petroleum.

17Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Action 5: Low-carbon Electricity
Convenient
Transport
18%

Power supply is a major source of GHG
Low carbon
Electricity
34%

emissions. Under the CM scenario, 34% of thetotal GHG emission reduction can be achieved
through the action of introducing low-carbon

Fuel Switch3%
Decarbonationof Industry
20%

electricity. This action comprises improvement

Green Building
25%of the efficiency of power plants and fuelswitchingforcountermeasureselectricity
forgeneration.

improvementofFig. 17 Potential of CO2 minigation

Theby Action 5

theefficiency of power plants are improvement of100%

energy efficiency, expansion of installed capacity,

Composition of power supply

Nuclearand reduction of transmission and distribution
losses. We have assumed that the efficiency ofcoal-fired power plants will improve from 35%
under the BAU scenario to 39% under the CM
scenario, that the efficiency of oil-fired power

80%
Hydro

60%

Natural gas

40%

Oil

20%

Coal

0%
2005

plants will increase to 45%, and that the

2030
BAU

2030
CM

Fig. 18 Structure of energy consumption in

efficiency of gas-fired power plants will increase

power sector

to 50%. Incentives for switching the fuel used
for electricity generation are also necessary. The
share of high-carbon-intensity energy, especiallycoal, should be reduced and instead, the sharesof natural gas, nuclear power, and hydroelectric.

power should be increased. The projected sharesof various fuels in the power sector are shown in
Figure 1818

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Appendix: The Methodology for Guangzhou Low-carbon society Analysis(4) Collection of low-carbon measures
1. A procedure to create LCS scenarios

To collect counter measures which are thought to be

In order to create a local low-carbon society scenario,

available in the target year. For example, highwe developed a method based on the idea of “backenergy-efficiency devices, transport structure change,

casting”, which sets a desirable goal first, and thenuse of renewable energy and energy saving behavior.

seek the way to achieve it. Figure A1 shows overview

Technical data is required to estimate their effect toof the method.

reduce GHG emissions. One of the main input data is
IO table. In this study, the first level of industry
divided into five sectors in this model, including
industrial sector, commercial sector, residential sector,
passenger transport sector and freight transport sector.
Then the five sectors subdivided into 18 sectors in thesecond level, which correspond to the I/O table of
Guangdong Province (table A1)(5) Setting introduction of counter measures
Technological parameters related to energy demandand CO2 emissions are defined. Since there can bevarious portfolios of the measures, one must choose
appropriate criteria. For example, cost minimization,
acceptance to the stakeholders, or probability oftechnological development.

Fig. A1 Procedure to create LCS scenarios(6) Estimation of GHG emission in the target year
(1) Setting framework

Based on socio-economic indices and assumption of

Framework of a LCS scenario includes target area,

measures ’base year, target year, environment target, and number

calculated.

of scenarios. The target year should be far enough to(7) Proposal of policies

realize required change, and near enough to image the

Propose policy set to introduce the measure defined.

vision. In this study, we set the 2030 as the target year

ExSS can calculate emission reduction of eachof Guangzhou. As an environmental target, wecounter measure. Therefore, it can show reduction

targeted CO2 from energy use because it will be apotential of measure which especially needs local

main source of GHG emissions from Guangzhou.

policy. It can also identify measures which have high(2) Assumptions of socio-economic situations

reduction potential and important.

introduction, GHG emissions are

Before conducting quantitative estimation, qualitative
future image should be description. It is an image of2.

Quantitative

lifestyle, economy and industry, land use and so on.

Snapshot Tool””

projection

tool“Extended(3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions
ExtendedTo estimate Snapshot based on future image, values ofSnapshotTool(ExSS)

isaexogenous variables and parameters are set. ExSS

comprehensive estimation tool for socio-economic

calculates socio-economic indices of the target year

indicators and environmental load emissions designed

such as population, GDP, output by industry, transport

for a backcasting study. Figure A2 shows the structure

demand, and so on.

of the Extended Snapshot Tool; seven blocks with
input parameters, exogenous variables and variables

19

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

between modules. ExSS is a system of simultaneous

especially important if the target region is thought toequations. Given a set of exogenous variables and(or, desired to) develop led by particular industry, suchparameters, solution is uniquely defined. In thisassimulation model, only CO2 emission from energy

Passenger transport demand is estimated from theconsumption is calculated, even though, ExSS can be

population and freight transport demand whereby it isused to estimate other GHG and environmental loads

a function of output by manufacturing industries.

such as air quality.

Floor area of commerce is determined from output of

In many LCS scenarios, exogenously fixed population

tertiary industries. Other than driving force, activity

data are used. Population is decided by demand fromlevel of each sector, energy demand by fuels

outside of the region, labor participation ratio,

determined with three parameters. One is energy

demographicofservice demand per driving force, energy efficiency

commuting with outside of the region. To determine

and fuel share. Diffusion of counter measures changes

output of industries, input-output approach is applied.

the value of these parameters, and GHG emissions.

composition

andrelationshipautomotive

manufacturing

For future estimation, assumption of export value isFig. A2 Overview of calculation system of Extended snapshot Tool20

orsightseeing.

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Table A1. Industrial classification and its correspondence
Industry sector of 2002 IO table (42 sectors)

Sector after aggregation in this study (18 sectors)

in the original input-output table [18]Agriculture
Coal mining

Agriculture

Crude petroleum and natural gas

Mining

M etallic ores
Non-metallic ores
Foods and tobacco

Food, Beverages and Tobacco

Textile products

Textile Products and Apparel

Wearing apparel and other textile products
Timber, wooden products and furniture
Pulp, paper products and printing

Timber, Wooden Products and Furniture
Pulp, Paper Products and Printing

Petroleum refinery products

Petroleum Refinery, Coke and Nuclear Fuel

Chemical products

Chemical Industries

Non-metallic products
Pig iron and crude steel

Non-metallic M ineral Products
Metal Refinery and M etal Products

Steel products
Industrial machineryTransportation equipment
Electronic computing equipment and accessory equipment

Machinery and Equipments

Communication equipment
Applied electronic equipment and electric measuring instrument
M iscellaneous manufacturing products
Reuse and recycling

Other M anufacture Industries
Recycling Industries

Electricity and heat supply
Gas supply

Electricity, Heat and Water Supply

Water supply
Construction

Construction

Freight forwarding and storage
PostalTransportation RelatedInformation service and software
Wholesale and retail industry

Wholesale and Retai

Lodging, eating and drinking places
Financial and insureanceReal estate
Leasing and business services
Travel businessResearch

Other Services

Technical services
Other public services
Education
M edical service and social security
Amusement and recreational services
Public administration

21

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

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22

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Guangzhou Low Carbon Society 2030

Low Carbon Society Scenario Towards 2030 GuangZhou
A win-win strategy for climate change and sustainable development of regional economy

Energy Strategy Research Centre, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,
Chinese Academy of Science
Daiqing Zhao
Wang Peng
Huang Ying

Energy Research InstituteNational Development and Reform Commission
Xiulian Hu
Kejun Jiang

Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kei Gomi

May, 2013