Transboundary PM Air Pollution and its Impact on Health in East Asia
〇Akihiro Chiashi1, Soocheol Lee2, Hector Pollitt3, Unnada Chewpreecha4, Pim Vercoulen, Yanmin He6 and Bin Xu7

5

1. Introduction

Even though PM air pollution has been identified as a serious health hazard in China, Korea,
and in parts of Japan, the allocation of responsibility for emissions has become a hindrance tonegotiation and cooperation. As a result, no international regime for PM mitigation so far has yet
been established. In this study, we investigate the current state, characteristics and health hazards
related to transboundary PM air pollution in China, Japan and Korea, the three main actors in East
Asia with respect to transboundary PM air pollution. We then explore the potential for policy
coordination and the prospect for adopting policies aimed at reducing air pollution, based on an
analysis using the E3ME model.
2. Scenarios and methodology

In this study, we estimate the level of PM emissions generated in China, Japan and Korea, using
the E3ME model. We compare a baseline scenario (i.e. no special limits on fossil-fuelconsumption) and a scenario with carbon taxes (Scenario 1, S1) , in which fossil fuel consumption
decreases in line with the long-term decarbonisation target. Although PM air pollution policies
have already been implemented in China, Japan and Korea, here, we investigate the spillover
effects from meeting ambitious long-term emission target in these countries.
3. Expected results and Analysis

Emissions of SO2, NOx, CO and N2O, and direct PM2.5 emissions for a few selected years ineach scenario are shown in Table 1. As expected, large reductions in annual emissions orpollutants can be achieved by enacting carbon-limiting policies. Compared to those of baseline
scenario, direct PM2.5 emissions in 2015 are reduced in China and Japan by 35% and 25%,
respectively, in the climate change mitigation scenario S1; whereas Korea reduces direct PM2.5
emissions by 61%. The latter is important in the context of the societal issues currently caused byexposure to PM2.5. It should be remembered that the scenario includes only policies to reduceenergy-related emissions. Therefore, these results are due to changes in energy use rather than1

Faculty of Global and Inter-cultural Studies, Ferris University, Yokohama City, Japan, chiashi@ferris.ac.jp.
Faculty of Economics, Meijo University, Nagoya City, Japan.
3 Dept. of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK
4 Dept. of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK
5 Dept. of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK
6 Faculty of Economics, Otemon Gakuin University, Ibaraki City, Japan.
7 Graduate School of Economics, Meijo University, Nagoya City, Japan2

policies that directly target improvements in air quality.
Table 1 Development of annual emissions of several air pollutants at baseline scenario and S12.
Emission at baseline(kt/y)

Pollutant

Korea

China

Japan

2010

2030

Emission at S1(kt/y)
2050

2030

Change from Baseline
(%)

2050

2030

2050

SO2

2390

2473

2391

1504

998

-39-58

NOx

2468

2518

2522

1582

1137

-37-55

CO

9859

9146

8724

6944

4493

-24-49

N2O

94

97

96

82

73

-15-23

PM2.5

167

166

178

133

133

-20

-25

SO2

41367

40499

42970

17384

9279

-57

-78

NOx

21528

24011

23425

12994

8254

-46-65

CO

109635119810108766

84918

63321

-29-42

N2O

1817

2174

2499

1764

1651

-19-34

PM2.5

12431

13355

12992

10428

8468

-22-35

SO2

1082

1059

947

632

251-40

-74

NOx

1414

1593

1946

1138

920

-29-53

CO

3411

3602

3753

2895

2203

-20-41

N2O

67

71

70

61

48

-15-31

PM2.5

167

158

148

104

57

-34-61

Note: 1.Baseline scenario, no fossil-fuel consumption limit.
2.Scenario 1, carbon taxes.
3.Pollutants in bold are direct PM emissions; pollutants in Italics are PM2.5-precursor pollutants.
Source: E3ME model outcome.

4. Conclusion

From our analysis using E3ME, we conclude that emissions of non-CO2 air pollutants candecrease because of spillover effects from decarbonization policies. Improvement of air quality
directly leads to reductions of adverse health impacts and may have further positive economicimpacts by improving labor productivity. In such a scenario, government spending on health careis expected to decrease. The model-based analysis also confirms that all of East Asia stands tobenefit from reductions in air pollution in China. The challenge for policy makers is, thus, tocoordinate a system that provides benefits to the region as a whole.