U.S. Heat Pump Market

November 12, 2019
Melissa Lapsa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
Dutch Uselton, Lennox International
Jaewan Joe, ORNL
Mini Malhotra, ORNL
Van Baxter, ORNL
ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the US Department of Energy

2Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units

Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
23Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
34Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
4

5Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
5

6Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
67Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
78Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units
Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
89Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units

Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
9

10Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units

Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
1011Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential• Window Units• Mini-Split & Multi-Split• Ground-Source Heat Pumps• Single-Package Units• Split-System Units

Commercial• Wall-Type Units• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits• Split-System Units• Single-Package Units} Very few heat pumps• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
11

12US Fraction of Heat Pumps in Total AC and HP Shipments,by Year

Source: US Census, 2017 Characteristics of New Housing, 2018

12

13

US Manufacturer’s Shipments of Unitary Central Air
Conditioners, Unitary Heat Pumps, Oil and Natural Gas
Furnaces

Source: AHRI
13

14

Geothermal HP Shipments

Sources: Shipments/installations through 2009 are based on data from the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA). For 2010-2015 shipments were estimatedbased on Energy Star unit shipment and market penetration reports

14

15

Central AC and ASHP Shipment

Sources: AHRI

15

30,000

600

10,000Total Installed Cost Range
Typical Capa city
16

Electric boiler

Oil-fired boiler

Gas-fired boiler

Elec. resistanceheaters (large)

Total Installed Cost Range
Typical Capa cityElec.
resistance,storage-

Typical Capacity (gallon,unless specified)

50

Solar water heater

Oil-fired, storage

10,000Gas-fired,storage

34 gpmGas-fired,instantaneous

30,000Heat pumpwater heater

40,000Retail E quipment Cost Range

Elec. resistanceheaters (small)

Heat Pump

Elec. resistance,storage

Cost (2017$)

50,000-Commercial Water Heating

10,000Technology
Other Technologies
9,000Commercial
Water Heating
8,000
7,000
300
6,000
250
5,000
Other Technologies
4,000
200
3,000
250-399 kBtu/h
2,000
150
1,000
83 sqft100-

Heat Pump
Technologies

20,000Oil-fired furnace-

Cost (2017$)

60,000Gas-fired,instantaneous-Elec.
resistance,
Typical Capacity (gallon,storage unless specified)

Gas-fired, storage

Heat pump water
heater-Oil-fired,
Solar water heater
storage

2,000

Gas-fired,

4,000

Gas-fired,storageinstantaneous

6,000

storage

8,000

Heat pumpwaterheater
resistance,
Elec.

Cost (2017$)

10,000Heat Pump
Technologies

Oil-fired, storage

12,000

Cost (2017$)

HeatPump
Residential
Water Heating

200

Ground source heatpump

0

Commercial Water Heating

10,000Technology
Other Technologies
199 kBtu/h
200
9,000
8,000
7,000
160
OtherTechnologies
6,000
5,000
120
4,000
3,000
80
2,000
1,000
40
42-63 sqft

400

11 tonOil-fired,storage

20,000Gas-fired, storage

Oil-fired furnace800

Air-cooled rooftop
heat pump-

Elec. resistancefurnace-Oil-fired boiler

30

Gas-fired boiler

6,000

Gas-fired furnace(Rest of US)

60

Gas-fired furnace(North US)

12,000Natural gas(absorption) heatpump

90

Ground source heatpump

18,0001,000

Other Technologies

40,000Gas-fired, enginedriven rooftop…

120Heat pump water
heater

24,000Heat Pump
Technologies

50,000

Solar w aterheater150

Other Technologies

Cost (2017$)

Heat Pump
Technologies

Air source heatpump

Cost (2017$)

30,000Commercial Space Heating
Typical Capacity (kBtu/h)Residential Space Heating

Typical Capacity (kBtu/h, unlessspecified)Total installed costs and typical capacities

Gas-fired furnace

16

Retail E quipm

Sources: Navigant Consulting, Inc. Appendix A, EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies – Reference Case. Updated Buildings
Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency. April 2018.

17Other Technologies

Heat Pump
Technologies

181260Technology30
Other Technologies
18025150
20120
1590
1060
5300
Gas-fired,storage

Solar water heater

Heat pump waterheaterGas-fired,instantaneous

Average Life (Years)-Average L ife (Min-Ma x Ra nge)

250

24
2,000

181,500

121,000

6500

0-Residential Water Heating
Heat Pump
30
Heat Pump
Technologies

2015

10
52,500300
250 Other Technologies
200150
100
50300

250

200

150

10050
-

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

Electric boiler

Oil-fired boiler

Gas-fired boiler

Elec. resistanceheaters (large)

Elec. resistanceheaters (small)Oil-fired furnaceGas-fired furnace

Ground source heatpump

Air-cooled rooftop
heat pumpGas-fired, enginedriven rooftop…

Other Technologies

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)-Solar water heater0Gas-fired,instantaneous

30

Elec. resistance,storage6

Heat Pump
Technologies

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

60

Average Life (Years)

Residential Space Heating

Oil-fired, storage

12

Gas-fired, storage

90

30

Solar w aterheater18

Gas-fired,instantaneous
Heat pump water

120

Elec. res is tance,
Average Life (Years)
storage

150

Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

180Annual Maintenance Cost ($)

Other Technologies

Oil-fired, storage

Elec. resistancefurnaceOil-fired boiler

Gas-fired boiler

Oil-fired furnace

Heat Pump
Technologies

heater36

Gas-fired furnace(Rest of US)

Gas-fired furnace(North US)

36

Elec. resistance,storage24

Oil-fired, storage

30

Natural gas(absorption) heatpump

24

Ground source heatpump

Air source heatpump

Average Life (Years)
30

Gas-fired, storage

Heat pump water
heaterAverage Life (Years)

17

Maintenance cost and average life
Commercial Space Heating

Commercial Water Heating
Commercial Water Heating

Annual M aintenance Cost

Sources: Navigant Consulting, Inc. Appendix A, EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies – Reference Case. Updated Buildings
Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency. April 2018.

18Financial Incentives for Heat Pumps
020

40

60

80100

Sales Tax Incentive
Rebate Program
Property Tax Incentive
Personal Tax Deduction
Personal Tax Credit
PACE Financing
Loan Program
Leasing Program
Industry Recruitment/Support
Green Building Incentive
Grant Program
Corporate Tax Deduction
Corporate Tax Credit
Corporate Depreciation
Bond Program
Utility Rate Discount
Performance-Based Incentive
Other Incentive140160607 programs

143 programsFederal18120

State and Utilities

18020019Regulatory Policies
051015Renewables Portfolio Standard
Public Benefits Fund
Energy Standards for Public Buildings
Energy Efficiency Resource Standard
Solar/Wind Access Policy (includes geothermal access)

Other Policy
Green Power Purchasing
Appliance/Equipment Efficiency Standards
Building Energy CodeFederal19State and Utilities

20253035404550

20

DOE’s Partners for Heat Pump R&D
National laboratories, academia, small businesses,
manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders•To advance technology R&D and commercialization
Standards and certifying bodies and technicalorganizations (e.g., ASHRAE, AHRI)•To help accelerate market acceptance
Windows and Building Envelope Sub-Program

R&D of heat pumping
technologies
Heating, Ventilation,
Air Conditioning/Water
Heating/Appliances
Sub-Program

Partnering Programs
within DOE’s Building
Technology Office20•To reduce heating and cooling energy consumption
Residential and Commercial Building Integration
Programs•To bridge the gap from technology commercialization to broad market
acceptance
Building Codes and Appliance and Equipment Standards
Programs•To identify equipment or appliances that require further R&D support•To facilitate development of appropriate codes and standards.

21

Refrigerant Policies• The US has not signed-on to the Paris Accord / 2016 KigaliAgreement• The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is not
currently pursuing further de-listing of HFCs through theSignificant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP).

• Some states are considering legislating to reduce the useof HFCs in new HVAC equipment. California is the onlystate, so far, with laws in-place.

21

22

Efficiency Trends

22•

1979 was first appearance of the Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio(SEER) for air conditioning equipment.

•Beginning in 1992, the US Department of Energy established minimum
efficiency requirements for many classes of consumer products
including air conditioners and heat pumps.

•Minimum 10 SEER for AC took effect Jan. 1992•

Minimum 13 SEER for AC took effect Jan. 2006•

Regional Minimums took effect in July 2016
• 14 SEER for South and Southwest• 13 SEER for remainder of country

23

Advancing Technologies• Proliferation of “communicating” controls (Internet ofThings)• New generation refrigerants with lower GWP• Research supporting Codes and Standards for “A2L”refrigerants• Incorporation of refrigerant and airflow modulation• Improvement of HP low-temperature performance2324Trends• Development of AC made southern latitudes more habitable• Population growth rate has been greatest in “sunbelt” states –good climate for heat pumps• Research on improving heat pump performance for colder
climates• Transition to Lower GWP refrigerants and responding to higher
efficiency minimums are challenging the US HVAC industry• “Internet Generation” has different expectations about HVAC
24

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Thank You!
Contact Info:
Melissa V. Lapsa
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
lapsamv@ornl.gov

2526

Appendix. standard and efficiency

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Appendix. standard and efficiency

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Appendix. standard and efficiency

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