IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on
Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT TCP)US Country Report - 2023

Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment of Heat Pumping Technologies

1

20 June 2023

US Country Report – 2023

Mini Malhotra, Zhenning Li, Xiaobing Liu, Melissa Lapsa, ORNL, USA
Antonio Bouza, US Dept. of Energy, USA
Van Baxter and Edward Vineyard, Strata-G, USA

ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the US Department of Energy

Disclaimer:This manuscript has been coauthored by UT-Battelle, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting thearticle for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow
others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan
(http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).

Outline• US Policies and Programs• Heat Pump Market• Economic Factors• Efficiency Standards• Current R&D Focus• Summary and Outlook

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20 June 2023

US Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) Goals• Reduce GHG emissions

2005

by 50%–52% from 2005
levels in 2030

• 100% carbon pollution-

free electricity by 2035

2030

• Net-zero emissions

economy-wide no later
than 2050

2050
United States historic emissions and projected emissions
under the 2050 goal for net-zero.

Source: The Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050. November 2021. whitehouse.gov
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20 June 2023

US Policies and Programs
Legend:May 2021
Policies to support RD&D
E3 Initiative (for Better
Policies to support supply
Energy, Emissions, andchain
Equity)Policies to support affordability
May 2021
Response to international
Japan - U.S. Clean Energy
policies
Partnership

2020

2021

Effective November 2020
US withdrawal from Paris Climate
AccordJanuary 2021
US rejoined Paris Climate
AccordApril 2021
Decarbonize the US power sector by2035
Source: whitehouse.gov; US Department of Energy
5June 2022
August 2022
Lennox produces mostInflationeffective heat pumps for
Reduction Act
cold climates
December 2021
January 2023
Residential Cold Climate
New efficiency
Heat Pump Technology
rating for AC and HP
Challenge

2022
July 2021
Justice40
Initiative
May 2022
ICEE HOT (Installing Clean Efficient
Energy Hastens Our Transition) Act
May 2022
HEATR (Heating Efficiency andAffordability through Tax Relief) Act
20 June 2023

2023
September 2022
US senate voted to
ratify the Kigali
Amendment to theMontreal Protocol
June 2022
Invocation of the
Defense Production
Act (DPA)US Policies and Programs
Legend:Policies to support RD&D
Policies to support supply
chain
Policies to support affordability
Response to international
policies

May 2021
E3 Initiative (for Better
Energy, Emissions, andEquity)

2020

2021

June 2022
Lennox produces mosteffective heat pumps forcold climates
December 2021
Residential Cold Climate
Heat Pump Technology
Challenge

2022
E3 Initiative (Initiative for Better Energy, Emissions, and Equity)• Advanced Water Heating Initiative• Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge• Collaborative RD&D on low to no-GWP refrigerants• Residential HVAC Smart Diagnostic Tools Campaign• Better Buildings Low Carbon Pilot
Source: whitehouse.gov; US Department of Energy
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20 June 2023

2023

US Policies and Programs
Legend:Policies to support RD&D
Policies to support supply
chain
Policies to support affordability
May 2021
Response to international
Japan - U.S. Clean Energy
policies
Partnership

2020

2021

2022

2023

The Defense Production Act (DPA) allows the president to direct
resources to ensure the supply of materials and services necessary
for national defense.
DPA was invoked in June 2022 to rapidly expand US manufacturingof five critical clean energy technologies, including heat pumps.
Source: whitehouse.gov; US Department of Energy
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20 June 2023

June 2022
Invocation of the
Defense Production
Act (DPA)US Policies and Programs
Legend:Policies to support RD&D
Policies to support supply
chain
Policies to support affordability
Response to international
policies

2020

2021

Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 aims to curb
inflation by• Lowering health care costs• Reducing the federal deficit• Investing into domestic clean energy production
and manufacturing

August 2022
Inflation
Reduction Act

2022
July 2021
Justice40
Initiative
Justice40 Initiative aims to direct 40% of
the overall benefits of certain federal
investments, including clean energy andenergy efficiency, toward disadvantaged
communities.
Source: whitehouse.gov; US Department of Energy
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20 June 2023

2023

9

US Heat Pump Market

Air-source heatpump, 93%

Other,
7.1%

Outside airwater heatpump, 0.05%

Groundsource heatpump, 1.5%
Heat pumpwater heater,
3.2%
Water loop
heat pump,
2.3%
2022 market distribution of heat pump technologies.

9

Based on data from “The North American Heating & Cooling Product Markets, 2022 Edition,”
BRG Building Solutions.
20 June 2023

• Air-source– Air-to-air air-source heat pumps(ASHP); ~93% of US market– Air-to-water heat pumps <0.1% ofmarket– Air-to-water heat pump water
heaters (HPWH); 3.2% of market• Fluid (water or brine)-source– WLHP systems (2.3%)• Used in multi-family or officebuildings; individual heat pump ineach zone tied to central water loop
controlled to ~21-32C(~70-90F)
temperature range as heatsource/sink (aka boiler/tower system)– GSHP or geothermal (1.5%)• Res. or comm’l applications; basedon heat pumps designed for muchwider source/sink temperature range(-5 to 35C or wider) (~23-95F or
wider)

10

Air-Source Heat Pump Shipments 2001-2022

Market share

Thousands

7,000

52.6%

6,000

Heat pump market
share

5,000

50%

4.33 million 40%

4,000
3,000

30%

Gas furnace

3.87 million
20%

2,000

Air-source heat pump

1,000
0

60%

Shipments

Oil furnace
2001

2006

2011

2016

60%

6.05 million

6,000Central air conditioner

5,000

50%

41.7%

40%

4,000
3,000
2,000

10%

1,000

0%

0

30%

Heat pump market
share

4.33 million

Air-source heat pump

10%

20%

0%
2001

2021

Market share

7,000

Thousands

Shipments

2006

2011

2016

2021

ASHP shipments compared with furnaces and central air conditioners (aka cooling-only heat pump).
Based on data from: The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Historical Data. https://www.ahrinet.org/analytics/statistics/historical-data
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20 June 2023

2023 Shipments to-dateThrough 1st four months, 2023 vs. 2022
• Central AC shipments down 22.9% (1.586M vs. 2.032M)• ASHP shipments down 5.9% (1.263M vs, 1.342M)• Gas warm air furnace shipments down 21.7% (1.006M vs. 1.286M)• ASHP continues trend of gaining central heating system market share at expense ofgas furnaces; ~56% for 2023 to-date

Data source: The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Historical Data. https://www.ahrinet.org/analytics/statistics/historical-data
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20 June 2023

Heat Pump Market Share
Electric, other, or none

Hundreds
houses% of new single-family

100%
80%

% of new single-family houses

12

Hot water or steam
Warm-air furnace

60%
40%

20%
0%
2001

Heat pump(air-source or ground-source)
2006

2011

2016

2021

38% of new single-family homes completed in 2021 in the US
used a heat pump as their primary heating source.

80%
60%

South

40%

Midwest20%

West

Northeast

0%
2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

Most of these heat pump installations are in the South.

Based on data from US Census Bureau
12

100%

20 June 2023

HPWH shipment history
120000

Annual shipments

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

2006;
before E*
rating

13

2009

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Year

Data sources: a) Energy Star - https://www.energystar.gov/partner_resources/products_partner_resources/brand_owner_resources/unit_shipment_data for 2009-2021;b) ORNL estimate for 2006
20 June 2023

GSHP shipment history
140,000

120,000

100,000

80,00060,00040,00020,000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Est. total GSHP shipments

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

EIA shipment data

2006-09 EIA data likely includes data for water-to-air heat pumps intended for both WLHP and GSHP system
types
NOTE: EIA stopped tracking shipments after 2009

Based on data from a) DOE Energy Information Administration and b) “The North American Heating & Cooling Product Markets, 2022 Edition,” by BRG Building Solutions.
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20 June 2023

Average Energy Prices for US Residential and Commercial
Customers
50• Electric prices generally

45rose throughout period withsharp increase in 2021 and2022
electricity in early part ofperiod then fell back andplateaued; began
increasing again in 2021

35

30$/million Btu• Gas prices rose faster than40

• Residential customers pay

slightly higher prices on
average• For 2023, Jan-Feb, electricprices are up 10-14% andgas prices up 25-26%

Data source: DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA)
15

25

20

15

10

5

0
2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

Year
Residential electricity

20 June 2023

Commercial electricity

Residential NG

Commercial NG

16

Residential Energy Prices
Electricity Price
21.2

6.5

Natural Gas Price
22.9

5.7

2001

2011

2021

Regional differences in the heat pump market share can largely be attributed to the milder winters combined withlower electric-to-natural gas price ratios in the southern states.
Data source: US Energy Information Administration
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20 June 2023

Financial Incentives
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
• Tax credits of $300 for installing ASHP and HPWH in existing homes that meet

specified efficiency criteria• Rebates of 50%–100% up to $14,000 on electrification measures for low- andmoderate-income households

Renewable energy tax credits• Tax credits of 22%–30% of system cost for GHP installation in existing homes and new

construction

Rebate programs by states• For ASHP and GHP installation

Loan programs, grant programs, and Property-Assessed Clean Energy(PACE) financing
Sources: Energy Star; Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE); US Department of Energy
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20 June 2023

14 SEER
13 SEER
10 SEER

14.3
SEER2(equivalent
to 15
SEER)

Heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF)

Seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER)

CAC and ASHP Minimum Efficiency Requirements

6.8 HSPF

7.5 HSPF2(equivalent
8.2 HSPF to 8.8
7.7 HSPF
HSPF)

Performance standards of residential central air conditioning equipment and heat pumps.
Data source: US Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40232#
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20 June 2023

SEER vs. SEER2• SEER2 is the new cooling efficiency rating for air conditioning

equipment that took effect January 1, 2023

• It is calculated the same way as SEER but is based on a revised

testing procedure– Designed to more accurately reflect installed field conditions for air

conditioners and heat pumps– One of the main differences in the new test procedure is that higher
external air-side pressure drops are required– This results in higher fan/blower power use, so an SEER2 rating is a bit
lower than SEER calculated at the same temperature conditions

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15-18 May 2023, Chicago, Illinois

Research Challenges and Opportunities

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Improve efficiency andcapacity of heat pumps
for cold climates, andefficiency of systems forwarm climates

Reduce installed costand improve reliabilityof high-efficiency
systems

Develop solutions forproblematic heat pumpinstallations, particularly
for retrofit andrenovation applications

Develop alternativerefrigeration
technologies and lowerGWP refrigerants to
reduce direct emissions

20 June 2023

Current R&D Focus
R&D in heat pump systems

Component
technologies

Advances inheat
exchangers

Advances incompressor

Low-GWP
refrigerants

Frosting anddefrosting
improvement

Systemtechnologies

Groundsource heatpump

Dual-fuelheat pump

Regional
solutions

TES
integrated
heat pump

Heat pumpwater heaterNon-vaporcompression
technologies(long-term
focus)

Cold-climate
heat pumpNon-vapor compression
heat pump technologies
Solid-state:
Thermoelastic, magnetocaloric,
electrocaloric, thermoelectric,
thermoionicHeat activated :Absorption, adsorption,
vuilleumier heat pump

Gaseous:
Thermoacoustic, Brayton
cooler J-T cryocooler, Stirlingcooler Pulse-tube, Vortex-tube

Liquid-vapor:
Membrane heat pump,mental hydride

Others:Malone heat pump

E3 Initiative (Initiative for Better Energy, Emissions, and Equity)• Advanced Water Heating Initiative• Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge• Collaborative RD&D on low to no-GWP refrigerants• Residential HVAC Smart Diagnostic Tools Campaign• Better Buildings Low Carbon Pilot
https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/energyemissions-and-equity-e3-initiative
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20 June 2023

Energy saving potential for different non-vapor
compression technologies reorganized based on
DOE/EE-1703

Adoption of Low-GWP Refrigerants in Heat Pumps• Some heat pump OEMs are now selling A2L products in selectstates that have updated their building codes

Progress on building code and legislative updates to allow
use of A2L refrigerants (Updated November 2022)
Based on data from 2023 ACEEE Hot Air Forum

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20 June 2023

•The blue states allow low GWP A2L
refrigerants for both A/C and Refrigeration
applications.
•The green states allow A2L refrigerants for
A/C application, while green-checkedstates have partial A/C application
allowances.
•States shown in yellow are in progress onbuilding code or legislative to allow lowGWP refrigerants.
•States in light gray have yet to begin theprocess.

DOE’s Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) Challenge• Residential, centrally ducted, electric-

only HPs that perform better than
today’s products in cold climates– Nominal cooling capacity 24,000 – 65,000

Btu/hr (7-19 kW), strong capacity
maintenance (i.e., 100% heating capacity
at 5°F, strong performance to below 0°F )– Perform efficiently in cold climates: COP
lower limit @5 °F [-15C]
2.1 (>4 ton[14 kW]) or 2.4 (2-4 ton[7-14 kW])– Employ low-GWP refrigerants (< 750 GWP,
AR4 100 year)– Incorporate advanced controls and gridinteractive capability to assist withinstallation, fault detection, demand
response, and other activities (AHRI 1380)

23

Full specification and test procedure for CCHP Challenge:
https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/residential-cold-climate-heat-pump-challenge

15-18 May 2023, Chicago, Illinois

Advanced Water Heating Initiative (AWHI)• A collaborative, market transformation effort that works tocatalyze a rapid transition to high-efficiency, grid-connected
HPWHs– Development of 120 volt HPWH for replacement of existing WHs inhomes with limited electricity supply voltage (e.g., homes using gas
WHs)• More than 140 member organizations including manufacturers,

utilities, industry associations, and local/state/federal
government agencies https://www.advancedwaterheatinginitiative.org/community

24

15-18 May 2023, Chicago, Illinois

•Residential HVAC Smart Diagnostic Tools Campaign• DOE campaign to promote use of smart diagnostic tools toallow HVAC service techs to quickly commission new
installations or identify faults in existing systems– Estimate that ~9% of residential central AC and ASHP energy use iswasted due to installation faults• Campaign provides– Platform for technical assistance– Best practice guidance– Independent testing f available smart diagnostic tools– Case studies and lessons learned

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/202204/EED_1361_FLYER_EERE-SmartDiagnostic_FINAL5.pdf
25

15-18 May 2023, Chicago, Illinois

•Better Buildings Low Carbon Pilot• Partner organizations shared experiences, successes andchallenges in pursuing low carbon emission strategies• Key learnings and resources from these partners collected in a

“Low Carbon Toolkit”– https://betterbuildingssolutioncenter.energy.gov/low-carbon-pilot-

toolkit– Action plan templates, Solutions, Peer exchanges (webinars, etc.)– Includes a number based on heat pump and/or cooling system
upgrades26

15-18 May 2023, Chicago, Illinois

Summary and Outlook• Uneven market growth (i.e., very small market share in cold climates)• Hurdles for heat pump deployment include:– High cost of installation; high operational costs in cold climates– Supply chain constraints– Existing building stock with fossil fuel systems and constraints for fuel-switching– Supplemental electric resistance heating at low outdoor temperatures
can overstress existing grid

• A large increase in policies and financial incentives for advancing heatpump deployment• As the share of renewables in the energy mix increases, heat pumps can play

an important role in electrifying the building sector

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20 June 2023

Thank you!
Van Baxter
baxtervd@ornl.gov

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20 June 2023

Questions/Discussion

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