US Heat Pump Market – 2021 Update
Ed Vineyard, Senior Advisor, Department of Energy Building Technology Office, USA
Van Baxter, Distinguished R&D Engineer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA

The HPT TCP is part of a network of autonomous collaborative partnerships focused on a wide range of energy technologies known as Technology Collaboration
Programmes or TCPs. The TCPs are organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA), but the TCPs are functionally and legally autonomous.
Views, findings and publications of the HPT TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries.

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US Response to International Policies
Paris Climate Accord(Requires nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for GHG emissions reduction; signed
04/2016, effective 11/2016)• US withdrew on November 4, 2020; rejoined on January 19, 2021.

Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol• US has not ratified the amendment yet, but in April 2021 it pledged to do so.
• US has enacted American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act of 2020 that requires EPA
to implement HFC phasedown plans to reach 15% of 2011-2013 levels by 2036.
• EPA is proposing its first rule under the AIM Act of 2020 by issuing HFC allowances byOctober 2021
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US Response to International Trends
IEA projects space cooling energy
demand to grow by over 4 times in
non-OECD countries and 1.5 times
for OECD countries by 2050
• R&D on more efficient cooling andrefrigeration technologies.
• Proposed new IEA HPT Annex on“Comfort & Climate Box” for coolingdominated climates,• Annex 53 on advanced
cooling/refrigeration technology
development.

Annex 53
Two possible paths
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US Refrigerant Policies
EPA’s Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP)• EPA is not currently pursuing further delisting of HFCs through SNAP
• Some states are considering legislating to reduce the use of HFCs in new
HVAC equipment- California, Delaware, Maryland, and New York are the only states, so far,with laws in-place- New Jersey and DC are working on legislationwww.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

US Goals and Objectives
Decarbonize the US power sector by 20351
Establish a 2030 net-zero emissions standard for new commercial buildings. The ultimate goal is to reduce thecarbon footprint of the nation’s buildings by 50% by 2035 and reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050.
• Modernize and upgrade buildings to be affordable, resilient, accessible, energy efficient, and electrified.
DOE, GSA, and EPA Announce New Programs to Electrify Buildings, Invest $30M in America’s Workforce andSave Consumers Money2• DOE has launched the Initiative for Better Energy, Emissions, and Equity (E3 Initiative), focused on advancing theresearch, development, and national deployment of innovating clean and efficient building heating and coolingsystems, putting $10M toward accelerating the research and adoption of heat pump technologies through:- Nationwide Advanced Water Heating Deployment Initiative to increase market adoption of high-efficiency, gridconnected Heat Pump Water Heaters in residential and commercial buildings,- Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge to accelerate performance of cold climate heat pumptechnologies,- New collaborative research, development and deployment (RD&D) efforts partnering National Laboratories
and manufacturers to accelerate the development of low to no-GWP refrigerants.
• New ENERGY STAR standards have been finalized for central AC/HP and residential water heater to advance heatpump technology.3
Sources: 1whitehouse.gov, 2whitehouse.gov, 3energystar.gov

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Minimum Efficiency Requirements & Shipment Weighted
SEER for Split-System ACs and HPs
SCOPc

SEER

Effective January 2006
AC: 13 SEER
HP: 13 SEER, 7.7 HSPF

16

1979
First appearanceof SEER for AC

Effective January 20231: New rating methods2
5 AC: 13.4 SEER2 (North): 14.3 SEER2 (<45 kBtu/h; Southeast, Southwest): 13.8 SEER2 (≥45 kBtu/h; Southeast, Southwest)
HP: 14.3 SEER2, 7.5 HSPF2
1

This transition is still under discussion, and it is possible thetransition could extend beyond 2025.
4 2In 2017, as part of efficiency standards proceeding, DOE
announced changes to the rating methods and associatedefficiency descriptors for central AC. (Source: 85 CFR 20218)

13

1992:
10Min. efficiency
requirements
established forAC, HP and many
7other consumer
1990
product classes
Effective January 1992
AC: 10 SEER
HP: 10 SEER, 6.8 HSPF

Effective January 2015: AC Regional minimums
3
AC: 13 SEER (North): 14 SEER (Southeast): 14 SEER/12.2 EER (<45 kBtu/h; Southwest): 14 SEER/11.7 EER (≥45 kBtu/h; Southwest)
HP: 14 SEER, 8.2 HSPF

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2

Sources: 10 CFR 430.32 (Current), 10 CFR 430.32 (2013), AHRI

North:
HDD>5000Southwest:
HDD<5000(Hot-Dry)

Southeast:
HDD<5000(Hot-Humid)

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• New SF and MF housing permits
steadily increasing since 2011
• New Mobile home and MF homesizes relatively constant since 2014

Miljontal

Annual New Home Construction
21Mobile Homes

Total Permits Issued

MultifamilySingle-Family• New SF home sizes trending downslightly since 2015

02000
Avg. sq ft (x1000)

Source: census.gov

32005

2010

32015

Single-Family

2Mobile Homes

1020002020

Multifamily
2005

2010

2015

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2020

Residential Sector Space Heating Energy Use

Source: eia.gov

30%

8Total

620%

40

2025F
2030F
2035F
2040F
2045F
2045F
2050F

2Forecast

2020

Space Heating2015- Forecast to drop to ~37% by 2050

102010• SH fraction accounted for between
40-50% of total 2000-2020

50%40%

2005- Forecast to increase by ~10% by2050

122000- ~10.5 to 11.5 Quads (~11.1 to12.1 EJ)Space Heating(% of Total)

14
Energy Consumed (Quadrillion Btu)

• Total residential sector site energy
consumption relatively constant from
2000-2020www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

10%0%Electricity Price

Residential

12Commercial

10
cents per kWh• Rising electricity price for residentialbuilding customers compared to othersectors- A barrier for the penetration of HP
in residential sector- Drives R&D to improve theperformance and efficiency

14

Transportation
86Industrial

4202000

Source: eia.gov

200520102015www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

2020

HVAC Systems in Homes

Hot Water or Steam

100%

100%

Houses without Central AC or HP

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

Houses with Central AC or HP

20%0%
19900%
1990

2000

2005

2010

2015

Single-Family Homes With and Without
Central AC or HP
Source: census.gov

Warm-air furnace

40%

20%

1995

Electric, Other or None

2020

Heat Pump (Air-sourceor Geothermal)
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Type of Heating System Used in New
Single-Family Houses Completed

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50
No heating

Number of housing units (million)

40

Other30

Steam/HW20

HP

10Furnace050
40

No Cooling30Indiv AC
Central HP

20

Central AC

100

Very cold Mixed- Mixed- Hot- Marine/cold humid dry/Hot humid-dry

Residential Buildings

Sources: 2015 RECS, 2012 CBECS

Total commercial floorspace (billion sq ft)

HVAC Systems by Climate Region
504030
20
10050
4030
20100

Very cold Mixed- Mixed- Hot- Marine/cold humid dry/Hot humid-dry

No Heating
Other
Pkg Htg
Boilers
District Heat
Indiv Space Ht
HP
Furnaces
No Cooling
Other
Pkg AC
Central Chillers
District CHW
Indiv ACHP
Central AC

Commercial Buildings

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6

Unitary AC

41.34M201990

1995

2000

Unitary Air-Source HP
2005

2010

2015

50%

2020

36.6%

40%
30%

1995

Source: AHRI

2000

4Gas Furnace

2

1.34M

01990

1995

2000

3.42M

Unitary Air-Source HP
Oil Furnace
2005

2010

2015

2005

2010

2015

2020

2020

50%
40%

29.3%

20%

HP Shipment(% of Total Unitary AC and HP)

0%
1990

630%

20.0%

20%
10%

3.42M

Miljontal

Miljontal

Annual Shipments (Unitary AC, HP, and Furnaces)

50.2%

HP Shipment (% of Total Furnace and Unitary HP)
10% HP surpassed Gas Furnace shipments in 2020 for 1st time& trend maintain through 1st half of 20210%1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

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• Steady increase since 2003, partly
due to a 30% federal tax credit forunits placed in service after 2008
through 2016
- Tax credit were reinstated in 2019
and will be available until 2023.3

Tusental

Shipments (GSHP)
Estimated total GSHP shipments
based on market penetration ofEnergy Star units2

300
250
200
150
100

Total GSHP
150 shipments
02000
Sources: 1eia.gov, 2energystar, 3energystar.gov

2005

Energy Star GSHP
units shipped22010

2015

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2020

Shipments by Equipment Size (Central AC and HP)

Miljontal

2,52000

2005

2010

2015

2020

10Miljontal• Residential size AC and HP (19 kW orless) accounted for 95-97% of total
shipment in the past 20 years& Over
Size (kW) 187.5
158.2-187.5

864

2

2

1,50

1

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

111.3-158.2
93.7-111.3
73.2-93.7
54.2-73.2
39.5-54.2
28.4-39.5
19-28.4
15.8-19
12.9-15.8
11.4-12.9
9.6- 11.4
7.9-9.6
6.4-7.9
4.8-6.4
Under 4.8

0,50

Residential Size AC and HP
Source: AHRI

Size (kW)www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

Key Research Challenges
Need for improving:- efficiency and capacity of heatpumps for cold climates- efficiency of HPs and ACs forcooling-load-dominatedclimatesHigh installed cost and lack ofsustained performance/
reliability of high-efficiency
systems

Source: energy.gov

Need for reducing GWP ofrefrigerants used in heat pumpequipment (space conditioningand water heating)

Solutions for problematic heatpump installations such as
space and electrical panel
constraints (particularly forretrofit & renovation
applications)

Decarbonization of the US
power grid by 2035
Electrification of building
sectorwww.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

Current R&D Focus
New Heat Pumping Technologies

Heat Exchanger Technologies

Regional solutions for improving HP
performance, cold-climate and hotclimates

Advanced heat exchanger
manufacturing techniques

Integrated HP technologies for
optimizing whole-building energy use
Electric HPWH with low-GWP
Cold climate RTUs with low-GWP

Next-generation membrane
technologies for cost-effective
integration with conventional
technologies to reduce energy fordehumidification

Non-vapor Compression
Technologies (long term focus)
Nontraditional cooling/refrigeration
cyclesNon-vapor compression HPWH
Non-vapor compression supplemental
heat for low temperature operation

Reducing the cost of premium efficiency technologies
Technology TypeNon-vapor compression
Air Conditioning Systems
Source: energy.gov

R&D Target
COP

Installed Cost Premium per unit (2020$/(kBtu/h))

COPcooling ≥ 12.3

Residential: ≤ 16.8, Commercial ≤ 15.4

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R&D Partners
Emerging Technologies Program
Technology Sub-Program Areas- Building Envelope- Windows- Building Equipment- Lighting R&D- Building Electrical Appliances,Devices and Systems- Building Controls- Thermal Energy Storage- Building Energy ModelingSource: energy.gov

Appliance and Equipment Standards Program•Identify equipment/appliances needing furtherR&D support; set minimum efficiency standards
Building Energy Codes Program•To facilitate development of appropriate codesand standards

Partnering Programs
within US Departmentof Energy Building
Technology Office

Residential Building Integration Program
Commercial Building Integration Program•To bridge the gap from technology
commercialization to broad market acceptance
National labs, academia, small businesses,
manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders•R&D to advance technology levels and support
commercialization
Standards and certifying bodies and technicalorganizations (e.g., ASHRAE, AHRI)•To help accelerate market acceptancewww.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

Summary and Outlook• The US HP market has shown steady growth since 2010.
- Growing at faster pace relative to competing space heating technologies.
• The use of ASHPs in cold climates is becoming more feasible through promising R&D andmarket developments.
• To cope with environmental concerns and rapid increase of cooling/refrigeration demand,current R&D emphases are primarily on advancing development of:- More efficient cooling/refrigeration systems including nontraditional cycles,- Alternative or advanced compression cycle technologies,- Lower GWP refrigerant alternatives.
• Governmental actions, along with public and private-sector incentive programs, promote
deploying more efficient HP systems.
• The future of HP technologies will be highly influenced by the stringent minimum standards,
R&D, tax credits and incentive programs.

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Questions
Ed Vineyard
vineyardea@gmail.com
Van Baxter
baxtervd@ornl.gov

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