The heat pump market in Norway
Rolf Iver Mytting Hagemoen
Norwegian Heat Pump Association

The HPT TCP is part of a network of autonomous collaborative partnerships focused on a wide range of energy technologies known as Technology Collaboration
Programmes or TCPs. The TCPs are organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA), but the TCPs are functionally and legally autonomous.
Views, findings and publications of the HPT TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries.

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Facts about Norway• Norway is a country of mountain ranges, huge forests, vast empty expanses and only about 3% arable
land.
• The population is approximately 5.3 million, around 1.2 million of whom live in and around the capitalcity, Oslo.
• Form of government: Constitutional monarchy• Parliament• EU membership: No

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The Norwegian economy• The biggest source of national income is the extraction andexport of offshore oil and gas. Other significant industries
include fishing, raw aluminum, shipping and tourism.
• Per capita GDP:
• 73 170,43 Euro• 76 148,61 US$
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Final energy consumption in Norway

Total in 2020: 211 TWh. Source: Statistics Norway

Electricity production and consumption
Electricity production in 2021:

157.1 TWh

Electricity consumption 2021:

139.7 TWh

Net export of electricity:

17.3 TWh1739 hydropower plants -88 % of Norwegian production capacity

64 wind farms

10 % of Norwegian production capacity-The total renewable share in Norway is 50.4 per cent, compared with 46.7 per cent in 2010

Electric heating is common in Norway

Electric heating is common in Norway

Air-to-air-heat pumps is popularAir-to-water heat pumps in both old andnew buildings

Drilling for boreholes

Heating and tap water with brine to water
heat pumps

Fossil oil forheatingBanned in all buildings
from 2020

Powerhouse in Trondheim
Plus energy building

Two buildings share electricity from solar
power and heat from a sea water heat pump

Photo: Ivar Kvaal / Powerhouse

The building is designed for energy
production

Ammonia heat pump

Norwegian EV market

In 2021: 64.5 percent of all new cars sold were fully electric.

Electric ferries
In 2022 there are 58 car ferries in electric
operation in Norway.
Another 14 ferries will be put into electric
operation during the year.

Explaining market for heat pumps 2022
− Highest electricity prices ever− Fossil oil heating is prohibited for most buildings since 2020
− Fossil energy is prohibited in new buildings since 2015
− Gas heating is only available in a few places− Fossil energy is still used in industry, but this will be phased out− Electric heating is most common in Norway− Many houses have wood stoves− High electricity prices increase the demand for heat pumps− There is district heating in the cities and some smaller towns, yet less than in the other Nordiccountries− CO2 price on fossil fuel and refrigerants – more natural refrigerants than most other countries

Electricity price, grid rent and taxes forhouseholds(100 øre = 1 NOK = 0,1 Euro Cent)Number of sold air-to-air heat pumps vs price electricity for households

Air-to-air pumps

Price electricity incl net and VAT øre/kWhPros and cons for heat pumps
Pros:

Cons:

Electricity prices low compared to fossil energy

Direct electric heating is common

CO2-taxes on fossil energy

Building regulations does not give initiatives forheat pumps

Fossil energy banned in new buildings
Fossil oil banned in most buildings
Energy labelling of buildings, BREEAM,FutureBuild etc promotes heat pumps
Ambitious building owners choose heat pumps
Many competent companies, installers andplanners
Subsidies for some heat pumps

NZEB not implemented in building regulations
Many incompetent companies, installers andplanners
No national strategy for energy efficiency inbuildings

Total market heat pumps 1995 - 2021
140 000

120 000

100 000

80 00060 00040 000

20 00001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reversible HP - air / air

Heating only HP - air / water

Heating only HP - brine / water

Exhaust air HP - air / water

Reversible HP - VRF

Tap water

Reversible HP - air / air
140 000

120 000

100 000

80 00060 00040 000

20 00001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reversible HP - air / air

Heat pumps for hydronic systems
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000500
01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Heating only HP - air / water

Heating only HP - brine / water

Sales of heat pumps in 2021 | by country

Heat pump sales 2021 per 1 000 households

Heat pump sales Sweden 2019 - 2021

Air-water

Exhaust air

Brine-water

Norway 2021 vs 2020
• Lowest electricity prices for 20 years in 2020, highest ever in 2021
• Total sales of heat pumps:• Fourth quarter 2021 compared to fourth quarter 2020

• 2019105 124• Air-to-air + 60,70 %• 202091 894• Air-to-water + 33,70 %• 2021125 049• Brine-to-water + 29,90 %• Exhaust air 156,2%• An increase of 36% compared to 2020
• 2021 compared to 2020
• Air-to-air + 38,00 %• Air-to-water + 2,5 %• Brine-to-water + 8,0 %• Exhaust air 29,9%Distribution of heat pumps in Norway− In the period 1987 - 2021, almost 1.5 million heat pumps were sold in Norway− Air-to-air: approx. 1,36 millioner− Air-to-water: over 50 000− Brine-to-water: over 60 000− Ventilation heat pumps: over 20,000− More than 1.1 million heat pumps are in operation - more than 10,6 TWh of ambient heat.

Contribution from heat pumps in Norway

Housesholds

CommercialDistrict
heatingIndustry

SumHeat production 2021

10,86

1,918,8

Input electricity

5,22,30,68,1

Ambient heat

5,63,7

1,3

10,6

Calculations from NVE based on statistics from the Norwegian Heat Pump Association

In 2021, 11.8 TWh of wind power was produced, which accounted for 7.5 % of total Norwegian power
production.

Potential for more heat pumps in Norway
Sintef Community analyses 2022
Existing building:
2030 - Potential heat pump 8.1 TWh
2050 - Potential heat pump 9.4 TWh
New buildings 2030
2030 - 3 TWh
2050 - 6.3 TWh
Heat pumps in new and existing buildings
2030 - 11, 1 TWh
2050 - 15.7 TWh
Todays contribution 10, 6 TWh

Trend projection for heat pump sales
Numberof heatpumps soldAntall solgte
varmepumper
pr. perår year
120 000

120 000

5 000

100 000

100 000

4 000

80 00080 0003 000

60 0002 000

40 000

1 000

20 000

6 000

02006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
20300Luft-til-vann
Air-to-waterVæske-til-vannBrine-to-water

Ventilasjonsluft
Exhaust air

Luft-til-luft(høyreAir-to-air(rightakse)
axis)

60 00040 000
20 000
-2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

Number of heat pumps sold by type,
Antall solgte varmepumper etter type,
trendprojection
trendframskriving

Air-to-airNyinstallasjon
Air-to-water Brine-to-water
ErstatningssalgExhaust Iair
altHow many heat pumps are in operation?

2 500 000

Heat pumps in operation in homes vs. the housing
Varmepumper i drift i boliger vs. boligmassen
stock (detached houses, terraced houses and(eneboliger, småhus og fritidsboliger), 2020holiday homes), 2020

Number ofheatvarmepumper
pumps in operation,
2020- estimate
Antalli drift, 2020
- estimat
1 200 000

1 055 746

2 108 139

1 000 000

2 000 000
800 000
1 500 000
600 000

1081 671
1 000 000

400 000
500 000
45 73102020
Bygningsmasse
Building mass

Varmepumper
i drift i alt
Heat pumps
in operation in total

53 860200 000
15 042Luft-til-luft
Air-to-air Luft-til-vann
Air-to-water Væske-til-vannBrine-to-waterVentilasjonsluft
Exhaust air(høyre akse)0