The heat pump market in Norway
Rolf Iver Mytting Hagemoen
Norwegian Heat Pump Association

The HPT TCP is part of a network of autonomous collaborative partnerships focused on a wide range of energy technologies known as Technology Collaboration
Programmes or TCPs. The TCPs are organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA), but the TCPs are functionally and legally autonomous.
Views, findings and publications of the HPT TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries.

www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org

Final energy consumption in Norway

Total in 2020: 211 TWh. Source: Statistics Norway

Use of fossil energy in Norway−−−−

Fossil oil heating is prohibited for most buildings since 2020
Fossil energy is prohibited in new buildings since 2015
Gas heating is only available in a few places
Fossil energy is still used in industry, but this will be phased out− CO2-tax: 83 Euro per ton of CO2 (NOK 952 )Electricity production
and consumption
Electricity production in 2021:

157.1 TWh

Electricity consumption 2021:

139.7 TWh

Net export of electricity:

17.3 TWh1739 hydropower plants88 % of Norwegian production capacity
64 wind farms
10 % of Norwegian production capacity
The total renewable share in Norway is 50.4 percent, compared with 46.7 per cent in 2010

Electricity price, grid rent and taxes forhouseholds
Q3 2022
Electricity price = 214,3

Electricity support = -176,1100 øre = 1 NOK =0,94 USD = 0,086 Euro

Taxes = 73,8
Grid rent = 23,5

Source: Electricity prices, Statistics Norway

Electric heating is common in Norway

Norwegian EV market

April 2023 : 83,2 percent of all new cars sold were fully electric.

Some success factors for heat pumps inNorway• Electrification of society - strong electricity grid
• Price of electricity vs gas - heat pumps are the most profitable heating solution• Taxes on electricity vs CO2 - bans of fossil fuels for heating in Norway• High quality heat pumps for cold climate• Large network of skilled installers throughout the countries• Training and specialisation of installers, planners, plumbers and entrepreneurs

Some challenges• Building regulations do not encourage the choice of heat pumps in new buildings• Relatively few buildings with hydronic heating• Electricity has historically been cheap

Heat pumps for cold climate• High quality models adapted to cold and Nordic climates dominate the market• Many models tested for -25 or -30° Celsius• Air source heat pumps deliver lower COP and heat at low temperatures• Buildings with air source heat pumps normally need additional heat from othersources as electric heating or bio energy• Geothermal heat pumps are most efficient but cost more
• Air-to-air heat pumps have the shortest pay back time
• Longer heating seasons than many other European countries

Heat pumps in new and old buildings• Hospitals• Nursing homes• Schools• Hotels• Offices• Single family houses• Apartment blocks• Cultural buildings• Churches• Kindergartens• Industry• District heating

Guide for heat pumps in listed and heritage- Directorate of cultural heritage
listed buildings

07.03.2023

RIKSANTIKVAREN

14

Heat pump in a listed building

Heat pump in mountain cabin

Propane heat pumps

Total market heat pumps 1995 - 2022
180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,00060,00040,00020,00001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Reversible HP - air / air

Heating only HP - air / water

Heating only HP - brine / water

Exhaust air HP - air / water

Reversible HP - VRF

Tap water

Heat pumps for hydronic systems 1995 - 2022
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Heating only HP - air / water

Heating only HP - brine / waterTotal market per quarter2012

14,8732013

13,128

2014

9,388

2015

11,885

8,993

19,96924,4802016

12,157

10,118

17,957

26,298

9,092
9,159

7,436

2017

15,7732018

18,7182019

21,2602020

19,912

22,164

12,54828,20828,72815,49335,76328,931

15,95935,50627,134
19,20627,8282023

20,417
23,208

10,18824,4532022

24,993

17,585

16,5382021

18,26930,15529,732

21,22347,51439,92562,20639 339-20 00040 00060 00080 00012

3

100 000
4120 000

140 000

160 000

Explaining market for heat pumps in 2022
− Highest electricity prices ever− High electricity prices increase the demand for heat pumps− Fossil heating is no competitor for heating in buildings

Distribution of heat pumps in Norway− In the period 1987 - 2022, almost 1,64 million heat pumps were sold in Norway− Air-to-air: approx. 1,49 million− Air-to-water: over 57 000− Brine-to-water: almost 64 000− Ventilation heat pumps: approx 26,000− More than 1.3 million heat pumps are in operation – approx. 11 TWh of ambient heat.

Contribution from heat pumps in Norway

Heat production 2021
Input electricity
Ambient heatTWh18,88,1
10,6

Calculations from NVE based on statistics from the Norwegian Heat Pump Association

In 2021, 11.8 TWh of wind power was produced, which accounted for 7.5 % of
total Norwegian power production.

Norway vs Nordic countries
Norway− Population 5,3 million− Low electricity prices, years with moderatetaxes for electricity, high CO2-taxes− Air-to-air-heat pumps-dominant, little gas grid
Finland− Population 5,5 million− Higher electricity prices than Norway− More air-to-water and brine-to-water heatpumps than Norway, little gas grid

Sweden− Population 10,42 million− Higher electricity prices and higher taxes forelectricity than Norway, high CO2-taxes− More air-to-water and brine to water than
Norway, little gas grid
Denmark− Population 5,86
− Earlier very high prices and taxes forelectricity, large gas infrastructure, thus lowheat pump sales− Now lower taxes for electricity, increased CO2taxes, heat pump market is growingNumber of heat pumps sold Norway, Sweden,
Finland2022
NorwaySwedenFinland*EstimatPopulation
5,4 mill
10,42 milli
5,5 mill

Air-to-air
142 495
150 000*
160 000

Air-to-water
3 430
19 16219 000Brine-to-water
3 514
28 160
12 000Trends
Number of heat pumps sold by year,
trend projection

160 000

6,000

140 000

5,000

120 000

160,000
140,000
120,000

4,000

100 000
80 0003,000

60 0002,000

40 000100,000
80,00060,00040,0001,000

20 000

0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

-

Number of heat pumps sold by type,
trend projection

New sales
Nyinstallasjon

Replacement
Erstatningssalg

Total
I alt

20,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

180 000

Luft-til-vannVæske-til-vann

Ventilasjonsluft

Luft-til-luft (høyre akse)0Important topics concerning heating pumps
Policy−The government's action plan for energy efficiency−Enova’s subsidy schemes−F-gas and PFAS−The building code
−The energy label scheme for buildings