POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCYAND HEAT PUMPS IN NORWEGIANBUILDINGS
Synne Krekling Lien, IEA HPT TCP National Workshop 10.05.22
SINTEF Community
Based on a paper in Praktisk Økonomi og Finans by Nina Holck Sandberg,
Synne Krekling Lien, Karen Byskov Lindberg og Igor Sartori

Buildings in the Norwegian energy system• Energy use in Norwegian buildings (2020):• Electricity use: 63 TWh (55 %)• Final energy use: 78 TWh (37 %)55 %• There is a potential for energy efficiency• Energy efficiency in buildings• Reduce energy use and emissions• "Free" electricity for other purposes• Access to "new" energy without conflict• Reduced peak loads and the demand for expansionof the electricity grid
• Increased comfort• Reduced energy costs for the end-users
Reference: Stortingsmelding 25 (2015-2016). Kraft til endring – energipolitikken mot 2030.
https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/meld.-st.-25-20152016/id2482952/

What are Energy efficiency measures?
• Retrofitting• More energy efficient windows anddoors• Heat recovery ventilation• Technical equipment• Smart control• Water-born heating• Heat pumps
Etc.

Photo: Karen Byskov Lindberg

The potential for energy efficiency is not achieved 'by itself"• Only 20 % of renovation projects lead to anenergy renovations (upgrade to betterenergy standard)1• Why not more?
‒ Cost/Profitability?
‒ Public suport schemes?
‒ Information?
‒ Competance?

1 Esser, Anne, Allison Dunne, Tim Meeusen, Simon Quaschning og Wegge Denis. 2019. ≪Comprehensive Studyof Building Energy Renovation Activities and the Transformasjon av den norske bygg-, anleggs- og
eiendomsnæringen Uptake of Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings in the EU Final Report.≫
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/1.final_report.pdf

What is the energy savings potential that lies in the Norwegianbuilding sector, where are we headed today and how far from thepotential are we?

Energy use in the Norwegian building stock2010-2050
90• Modelled energy used compared withstatistics 2010-2020• 3 scenarios for development of energy use
towards 2050:• Baseline• Energy efficiency• Energy efficiency and more heat pumps
Published in Praktisk økonomi og finans march 2022

70

Energy use [TWh]• RE-BUILDS Model: Dynamic scenario
model of the long term development ofthe building stock and its energy use

8060504030
201002010

201120122013

2014201520162017

2018

2019

2020

Electricity

Bio fuels and wood

Natural gas

Oil

District heating

Temperature corrected energy use

Measured energy use (SSB)

Modelled energy use (RE-BUILDS/FLEXBUILD)

Building stock development 2015-2050• The total area increase by 16 %(63 mill m2) from 2020 til 2050
• Energy savings potential• More renovation with energy upgrades(blue shaded)• Improved new buildings (green shaded)

Published in Praktisk økonomi og finans march 2022

Unchanged

Renovated

Demolished

New TEK10

New TEK17

New passive house

Heating technologies – Potential for HP• Assumptions about heatingtechnologies in 2020 (share ofenergy demand)• Potential:• New and renovated buildings:• HP with electric top heater water-borne
distribution system• Small houses (not renovated):• ASHP with electric top heater sytem

8

Energy use of the building stock 2015-2050

Development 2020-2050 (RE-BUILDS):• Baseline: + 1,5 TWh• More energy efficiency (energy
upgrade when renovating andimproved new buildings): - 6 TWh• + More use of heat pumps: - 22 TWh

Published in Praktisk økonomi og finans march 2022

Delivered energy for existing buildings(<2015)
Energy savings: energy efficiency measures

Delivered energy for new buildings

Energy savings: heat pumps in existing
Energy reduced: demolition

Energy savings: heat pumps in new buildings

Energy savings: better standard new buildings

Large potential for energy
efficiency• Energy savings potential at 22 TWh (compared to 2020)• Total energy use in buildings today = 80 TWh• Wind power generation in Norway 2021 = 11 TWh• Expected increase in electricity use due to electrification = 36 TWh (NVE)• Simplified energy system analysis• Not included in this study: single measures on building body in buildings
not renovated (additional potential)• District heating instead of heat pumps can reduce the electricity
consumption• Not achieved "by itself"• Holistic targets and analysis of the future energy system is necessary• Need to understand the potential for energy efficiency and newenergy generation to make the best policy• Stimulate more energy efficiency• Updated targets and strategies

Teknologi for et bedre samfunn