Summaries of Articles in English
The Role of Statistics in the Current Technology-Oriented Society
Kei Takeuchi
The field of statistics provides basic numerical information on an advanced technologicalsociety. In considering the role of statistics it is necessary for us to distinguish between"statistics" (in the traditional sense) and "statistical data". Statistical data are obtainedby observation or experimentation and are analyzedby statistical methods. Statistics (inthe traditional sense) are quantitative descriptions of various social populations. The
concept of statistical population must be adapted to the complications and dynamicchanges in current society. Because of their public nature, statistics need to be made open
and available by government as a public service. A compact summary of various
statistics would be most useful to the public. It is important to make available as muchindividual information as possible and at the same time insure that individual privacy isprotected.

The Role of Official Statistics and Data Dissemination
Sadanori Nagayama

Due to the progress of computers, the use of statistical data is currently far morediversified than it has been in the past. In this article we will discuss how the government
should cope with these diversified needs for statistical data. We will consider to whatextent the government should collect data and in what manner the gevernment should
provide this data. Concerning the former problem, we think that in addition to collecting
data for governmental purposes, the government should also consider the public needs forstatistical data. In regard to the latter problem, government statistical organizations
should provide both ready-made and tailor-made tables at the request of individual users.
We will discuss four possible ways for doing this:1) individual survey questionnaries made available to academic users for statisticalpurposes

2) provision of magnetic tape containing individual information sampled
3) tailor-made summaries provided by the government4) tailor-made summaries provided by designated nongovernmental institutions

日本 統 計 学 会 誌

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第 3号 (増 刊号 )1992

Opinion Polling in Japan
Sigeki Nisihira
Probably the first opinion poll in Japan was the survey on the election of prefecture
governors by Mainichi Newspaper in 1945. Since then, opinion polling in Japan has been
done both by the central government and by mass communication companies. Recently,
more and more local governments have conducted opinion polls. Generally these surveys
are conducted with a well-planned sampling design and with intertemporal and often
international comparison in mind. Currently, opinion polling in Japan faces the following
problems: 1) reliable data are harder to obtain, 2) telephone surveys are often used, butthere is little study to improve the reliability of this data, 3) the data are not wellpreserved.

Public Dissemination and Ethical Aspects of Medical Research Data
Yasuo Ohashi

We illustrate and discuss the problems on the ethical implication of dissemination anddisclosure of medical research data by using three examples. For investigating theefficacy of new drugs or treatments, clinical trials are usually required and the question
rises regarding the policy of the timing and the form of disclosing the intermediate results.
We illustrate this problem by introducing the Physicians' Health Study whose intermediate
result was published in news papers before the publication in academic journals, thereby
causing much controversy. Many studies with the same objectives are carried out all over

the world, and those results may contradict one another. Meta-analysis is proposed forsummarizing those results and widely used in cardiovascular and oncology area. In
carrying out meta-analysis, there rises the problem of publication bias, i.e., papers withstatistically significant results preferring new treatments are relatively easily published.
As the second example, the problem of publication bias and the registration system ofclinical trials for avoiding it are discussed. Development of anti-AIDS drugs is changing
the traditional system of research and approval process for its seriousness and urgency. In
the third example, an approval process of one anti-AIDS drug is discussed with specialreference to methodology of clinical trials.

The Availability of Personal and Household Information and its

Utilization Problems
Tsutomu Noda
Personal and household information collected by the government statistical institutions
consists of macro data based on major economic time series, micro data based onSummaries of Articles inEnglish263

individual households and corporations, and structural statistics. Structural statistics arecompiled to show the differences in the economic status of households or enterprises, witha concern for keeping individual information secret. Recently, due to changes in economic
structure and progress in information technology, the amount of statistical information forthe private sector is increasing. Many of these statistics are available to large numbersof people. It will become increasingly necessary for statistics to be supplied to and by theprivate sector. It will also be necessary to reconsider the legal issues involved in thecollection of individual data from the viewpoint of the need for protection of privacy.

Disclosure of Corporate Information
Tadao Miyakawa

There is growing social demand for the public disclosure of corporate information,
especially in regard to the much discussed problems of "keiretsu" business, compensation

for security investment loss, product liability, and various other issues. Generally, it isdesirable to have corporate information disclosed. However, the various aspects of thequality of information (i. e. preciseness, verifiability, completeness, timeliness andrelevance) must be examined. These aspects are inter-related and are sometimes in a
trade-off relationship. In addition, corporate information is an effective means of gaining
competitive advantage and is costly to obtain and to provide. Therefore, social consensus
and deep insight are necessary in the areas of legal regulation, incentive systems fordisclosure, and corporate social responsibility.

What Kind of Medical Information Should be Open to the Public ?
Isao Yoshimura

There are three kinds of users of medical information: patients, doctors and companies
related to medicine. In this paper we will discuss the disclosure of medical informationfrom the standpoint of the patient. Patients need medical information on a) mistreatments, b) side effects of drugs, c) effects of environmental pollution, d) informed consent,e) choice of drugs, treatments and doctors. Patients face difficulties in obtaining
appropriate data, in understanding the meaning of data (due to insufficient knowledge),
and in communicating with doctors. Since patients are also providers of information, areasonable social consensus on the availability and use of medical information should beestablished.

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日 本 統 計 学 会 誌

第 21巻号 )1992
第 3号 (増 干」Policy Decisions Based on the Statistical Data
Kotaro Tsujimura
Japan is one of the world's most advanced countries in the field of statistics. Short term,mid-term and long term statistics cover the whole of national life. To make use of thisrich information, phitosophically and economically wise judgment on the national economy
is indispensable. For example, the real economic growth rate for the years 1987 to 1991
was higher than the rate forecast by the government, while the labor market unemployment rate was lower. Depending on one's philosophy, one can interpret this data in one of
two ways : 1) the growth rate was too high, or 2) the growth rate was appropriate but there
was insufficient labor supply. For this period of economic growth there was apparently nosign of dangerous inflation reflected in the statistics, leaving economists puzzled. The
reason for this lack, however, is that land prices are not included in the consumer andwholesale price indices, thus in reality an extreme hidden inflation of land prices occurred
during this period. The oversight of these factors is one example of inappropriate
economic judgment.

The Computer Society and Statistical Data Processing
Hirotugu Akaike
Computers are not equipped with superhuman intelligence. The real essence of. acomputer society is in the information which the society realizes by utilizing the precisionand high speed communication capabilities of computers. A. M. Turing recognized thedifficulty of equipping computers with originality and the capacity for human intelligence,notwithstanding the possibility of training them for specific abilities by a pleasure-painsystem. Statistical data processing aims at realizing efficient searches for the solutions toconcrete problems. Such efforts constitute an intelligent use of computers. By theintroduction of AIC the basic theoretical difficulty in the search for models has been
eliminated and the increase in the speed and capacity of computers can now be effectively
utilized for statistical data processing. It is hoped that statistics will eventually occupy asecure position within the culture of the future.

Future Development of Statistics
Toshiyuki Mizoguchi
In considering the future of statistics, the following four points must be taken in account :First, there must be a balance between the empirical approach and the theoreticalSummaries of Articles in English265

approach. The econometric method, which was created to overcome "measurement
without theory" in economic prediction, could not successfully cope with the impact of theoil crisis. This led to a rebirth of the emirical approach in the form of time series analysis.
These two approaches are complementary. Second, statistical analyses depend on thedata which reflect the economic reality. This dependence has prevented the shift ofstatistical analysis to more sophisticated forms. Third, the precision of statistical data
must be considered. The precision of data depends on the statistical environment.
Fourth, statistics is interdisciplinary in nature; statisticians need to understand theproblems of other fields as well as the experiences of other statisticians.
Recent Developments of Statistical Graphics : Creation of Clients andMethods for Visual Representation
Masashi Goto, Shingo Shirahata, Tomoyuki Tarumi, Yasumasa Baba,Yoshizumi Yasuda, Yoshihiro Matsubara, Akio Yoden, and Kazumasa Wakimoto

Statistical graphics are now being used not only for descriptive and exploratory purposes
but also for the whole process of data analysis. This includes model buitding and fitting
and even statistical inference and decision. Needless to say, practical application isimperative in studying and developing statistical graphics. In this development process wemust keep in mind that consummating the "ad hoc" nature of graphics is more importantthat aiming at universality. In this paper, we discuss statistical graphics from a viewpoint
which attaches importance to their development, improvement, and application rather thanplacing a stress on their research. We review graphical techniques for data investigation,ordering of multivariate data, discriminant analysis and survival analysis. Statisticalgraphics enables an intuitive understanding of large amounts of qualitative and quantitative information in statistical data analysis. At the same time, statistical graphics aresubject to various erroneous interpretations if used in a non-objective manner. Therefore,
for an objective statistical analysis based on graphical representation of data, it isimportant to clarify how graphics affect the various aspects of human intuition and tomeasure these effects, using some numerical statistics. In this paper we interpret thesestatistics and consider how graphics and some nonparametric statistics are related.
Further progress of statistical graphics depends on their methodological development andthe enlargement of support of clients in many fields. In conclusion, we will briefly treat
some recent trends in statistical graphics software, directions for the study and development of statistical graphics, and ways in which to create markets in these new areas.

日本 統 計 学 会 誌

第 21巻

第 3号 (増 刊号 )1992

A Statistical and Methodological Approach to Interchronological Study ofJapanese National Character and Comparative Study of Belief Systems,
the Way of Thinking and Emotional Attitudes of Peoples
in Different Cultural Climates
Chikio HayashiThe methodology of the international comparison of belief systems is discussed mainlyin terms of the experience of the statistical study of the Japanese national character in thepast 35 years (Committee on the Study of Japanese National Character at the Institute ofMathematical Statistics) and the results of a recent cross-societal study. The basic goalof the international comparison of belief systems is to clarify the similarities and thedifferences of these belief systems. Our study is centered upon achieving this goal using
statistical methods. We stress the importance of the philosophy of the scientific survey,design of data, and analysis of data. We propose a "cultural link analysis" (CLA), whichlinks different belief systems by their similarities and dissimilarities in the form of a chain.
The motivations behind CLA and the experience of our international studies which are
based on CLA is also considered.