助成Institute forInternational Policy Studies
・Tokyo・IIPS International Conference“Building a Regime of Regional Cooperation inEast Asia and the Role which Japan Can Play”

TokyoDecember 2-3, 2003

“Coping with Emerging Threats to East Asian Security”
By
Dr. Masashi Nishihara
President,
National Defense AcademyJapanConference on “Building a Regime of Regional Cooperation in East Asia andthe Role which Japan Can Play,” Institute for International Policy Studies,
ANA Hotel, December 2-3, 2003

＜Session 3＞

Coping with Emerging Threats to East Asian Security

Masashi Nishihara*

The Increasingly Unstable Southern and East Eurasia

The end of the Cold War was supposed to bring about “peacedividend,” a popular term used for only a few years after 1989. Perhaps theEuropeans and the Russians shared some peace dividend. Yet the rest of theworld has quickly forgotten that right after the end of the Cold War such aterm even existed. Many armed conflicts, whether ethnic, religious, orterritorial, have been stirred up by authoritarian states and those forces
opposing them, many of which were located along the southern and eastern
periphery of the Eurasian Continent, more specifically, the Balkans,Southwest Asia (the Middle East), South Asia, and East Asia. Weapons ofmass destruction and guided missiles have proliferated to the region.
Suicide attacks organized by nonstate actors such as al Qaeda, Palestine1

radicals, and Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) have become a major feature ofregional politics. The United States, which has emerged as the single
superpower in world politics in post-Cold War years, has increased its
defense expenditures and advocates “preemptive strikes” against theseterrorist threats.
East Asia faces such threats of terrorism and proliferation ofweapons of mass destruction, which have wider implications for globalsecurity. What methods should the governments of East Asia employ inorder to counter such emerging security threats?

North Korea’s Nuclear Development and Multilateral Sanctions

North Korea’s suspected nuclear programs are currently a major
center of world-wide attention. The six-party talks, which were held inBeijing for the first time late last August, may succeed in persuading North
Korea to abandon its nuclear programs in exchange for some kind of “regimesecurity” and economic support. Yet it is difficult to be optimistic. Pyongyang
seems to be confident that Washington, being so preoccupied with the Iraqi
situation, is not going to “invade” North Korea. It also seems to feel assuredof China’s economic and energy support, since the latter apparently meets
some 60 percent of North Korea’s energy needs. South Korea also is on theway to expand its trade and investment in North Korea, expecting the northto gradually shift into a low-level capitalist economy and to moderate its
external posture. Thus it can afford to buy time to develop nuclear programs.

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It will most likely drag out the talks so it can prolong the cancellation of its
nuclear programs.
Under these circumstances “dialogues” alone do not bring about adesirable outcome. Non-military sanctions and threats to implement them
have to be effective. All nations concerned about North Korea should takemeasures to target sanctions toward the Pyongyang leadership, by stopping
illegal smuggling of sensitive machines of dual use and hard currency into
North Korea and of illicit drugs and forged currency out of North Korea.
South Korea, which is reportedly emerging as the second largest trading
partner for North Korea, should more seriously consider imposing economicsanctions. The United States may adopt a policy of accepting a certain
number of refugees from North Korea. This will give a message to North
Korean leaders that their political system is unacceptable to Washington.
There will also be organized efforts by several like-minded countries
such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, under the name of theProliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Their objective is to interdict vehicles
that may carry smuggled goods such as missiles and nuclear materials on
the high seas and in international airspace. Uniform pressures of othernon-military sanctions against Pyongyang are also important.
China, having a decisive influence over North Korea’s economic andenergy needs, thus holds a key to the success of the six-party talks. While
Beijing today has emerged as a country that unfolds a constructive
diplomacy, criticism against China will be voiced by Washington and Tokyo
in the future if it should fail to use its economic card against North Korea, to3bring about the latter’s abandonment of nuclear programs.
In the meantime, assuming that North Korea may not agree toabandon its nuclear programs, Japan has strengthened its security ties withthe United States, by speeding up the joint development and deployment of
missile defense systems. The Minister of State for Defense, Shigeru Ishiba,
also takes the position that Japan should be able to attack North Korea’s
missiles if they are imminently poised to attack Japan. Japan and theUnited States should have military readiness to deter or counter North
Korea’s attacks by weapons of mass destruction.

Relations across the Strait of Taiwan

Disagreements between Beijing and Taipei remain unresolved.
Although economic interdependency across the Strait of Taiwan has
increased with the growth of trade, investment, and tourism, there are no
immediate prospects for improvement in political and military relations
between the mainland and the island. This is admittedly an old issue.
However, inter-Strait relations have recently assumed a newdimension. The Taipei government has started to issue passports showing“Taiwan,” an indication that it wants to make the island an official separate
government unit. It also advocates producing its own constitution bynational referendum in 2006. Beijing does not rule out the possibility ofusing force to prevent the Taipei government from pushing toward its
formal independence.

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In the period of 1997 to 2001, Taiwan and China were the world’s
two top importers of arms, although in 2000 and 2001 China’s purchase ofarms was by far the biggest. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s annual report on
China’s military capabilities this summer indicated that about 450 missiles
were deployed along the Pacific coast facing the Strait of Taiwan, with anannual estimated addition of 75 missiles. Is Beijing contemplating military
operations to “liberate” Taiwan, when it feels ready? If so, when is it likely
to happen?
While Beijing claims that inter-Strait relations are internal matters,
the issue has a long historical background that has important international
implications. Washington will sustain its traditional efforts in supporting a
democratic government run by over 22 million people in Taiwan andproviding modern weapons for Taipei to balance the mainland’s militarycapabilities. The inter-Strait relations cannot be discussed either in theASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) or in ASEAN plus 3, due to China’sopposition. They can better be handled among Washington, Beijing, andTaipei. The goal should be to maintain the status quo.

East Asia’s Energy Needs and Regional Efforts

East Asia has become a gigantic consumer of energy resources.
China has become an oil importer. East Asia today depends upon the Middle
East oil for 85% of its oil needs, in comparison with 25% for North America
and 39% for West Europe.

5Sources of threat to energy security to the East Asian countries aretwo-fold. First, if the Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, shouldbecome politically unstable, it might affect the stable supply of oil for East
Asia. Second, if terrorist and piracy attacks should be made on oil tankers
sailing the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the Strait of Malacca, it will also
seriously affect the supply of oil for East Asia.
Today, the U.S. Seventh Fleet operates in a broad area of theWestern Pacific and Indian Oceans. Japan provides naval bases andfacilities for the U.S. Seventh Fleet. Singapore also provides naval facilities.
Recently Vietnam has admitted the first visit by a U.S. naval ship to Ho
Chin Minh City. These close relations between the U.S. and East Asian
countries help cope with potential threats to the security of the sea lines ofcommunication.
However, more regional multilateral talks may well be conductedwithin the framework of ARF or ASEAN plus 3, or other appropriate forums,
since most countries of the region depend upon the security of the sealanes
concerned. The South China Sea and the Indonesian waters today are
considered as the world’s most dangerous areas in terms of pirates equippedwith heavy arms and sophisticated communications tools. Anti-piracy
measures should be devised through multilateral arrangements.

Terrorism
Current terrorist attacks by al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah are not
the first of the kind in East Asia. North Korean agents at one time threw

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grenades at a group of visiting top leaders from South Korea in Myanmar
and at another time blasted a South Korean passenger plane by a timebomb. It also abducted South Korean and Japanese citizens. North Korea
was sponsoring terrorism. Japan also suffered from Buddhist fanatics,
called the Aum Shnrikyo supporters, who attacked Tokyo subways by sarin
gas in 1995.
Yet the suicide attacks by al Qaeda and JI are of Islamic origin,posing threats to the United States and its supporting nations. Their
attacks have so far taken place in the Philippines and Indonesia, whilesuspects were uncovered in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, as well asJapan and Australia. Terrorists may join hands with pirates in the South
China Sea.
The best way to cope with terrorism is for all nations concerned toimprove capabilities for intelligence-gathering and develop devices to share
intelligence. This includes the enhancement of the quality of policemen andpolice organizations of all nations in the region. State-of-the-art technology
should be employed to build a national and regional police network in order
to identify suspects. It is also important to build a close relationshipbetween the police and citizens, in addition to close surveillance of people’s
possessions at buildings and vehicles and of cargo ships and planes.
Preemptive actions are then important to prevent terrorism from actually
taking place. Again, multilateral consultations are necessary.
However, efforts should also be made toward eliminating the root
causes of terrorism in the long run. Political oppression, combined with7

economic misery, often encourages terrorism. Fair and just politicalsolutions to conflicts are essential, and those concerned nations, particularlyrich nations, should make greater attempts to close the gap between richand poor. Official development aids should be granted more effectively.

China’s Uncertain Future: Military Growth and SARSWith the appointment of Hu Jintao as President and Communist
Party General Secretary in March this year, Chinese leaders are unfolding askillful diplomacy to win friends in Washington and East Asian capitals. The
first six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear issues were held in lateAugust with relative success with China’s adroit management. In October,
China joined ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and closed apolitical distance with ASEAN. This adds to the already close economic
relations that Beijing has with ASEAN, by offering even a free tradeagreement.
Yet China’s future is far from certain. While its economy has been
growing at the annual rate of 6 to 9 %, it has created a huge economic gap
betweenurban

andruralregions

andbetween

developedandunderdeveloped sectors within urban areas. The fast economic growth also
facilitates more resources being spent for military growth. China is buying
destroyers and submarines from Russia. The People’s Liberation Army isresponsible for China’s space program. Its successful launch of a manned
spacecraft in October is believed to indicate intended military use of space

8rather than scientific exploration of space. In the meantime, China has
neglected public health and other social services policy, a result of which
was revealed in its vulnerability to epidemic diseases such as SARS.
It is difficult to see where the contradictions between the higheconomic- military growth and neglected social services will lead. Is China
likely to face industrial and agricultural unrest, causing internal politicalinstability of substantial scale? Or can it manage its internal contradictions,leaping forward? A weak, internally unstable China may be a source ofeconomic and social concern for the region, as a number of people are likely
to leave the country as refugees. An economically successful China canbecome a politically and militarily dominant, if not hegemonic, power in theregion. Such a China is likely to face rivalry with India, which is also
becoming competitive in exerting its diplomatic and economic influence into
Southeast Asia.
The future of China really would affect the security environment ofEast Asia. If China should pursue a role as a constructive and cooperativeactor, regional security talks on terrorism and disputed islands in the South
China Sea are likely to be fruitful. Multilateral security talks in ARF wouldalso lead to credible security arrangements. However, a political andmilitary dominance by China would become a cause of security concern formany countries in the Asia-Pacific region, causing a Sino-American rivalry,or a strong tie among Japan, the United States, and Russia. India may alsojoin the camp encircling China. In either scenario, the Japanese-US allianceis likely to serve as a core for Asia-Pacific security.

9Some Concluding Remarks

Security threats in East Asia are of different nature. There is no
single regional security regime to resolve all such threats. Bilateral security
arrangements such as the Japanese-US alliance are highly reliable, while
multilateral consultations such as ARF may be also useful for building
confidence among the countries concerned. Thus different security issues
require different approaches:
For North Korea’s nuclear threats, the six-party talks seem todissipate the tensions between North Korea and the United States, though
it is not certain whether the talks can really resolve the tensions.
International efforts in imposing non-military sanctions should be in order.
On inter-Strait conflicts, the United States should support Taiwan’s
democratic development but not its formal independence. It should also
persuade Beijing to restrain itself from using force against Taiwan. For thestable supply of Middle East oil to East Asia, there should be multilateral
consultations in ARF or ASEAN plus 3 on the security of the sealanes in theIndian Ocean, South China Sea, and East China Sea. Terrorism, on theother hand, requires closer networking of intelligence among the police andthe military of the countries concerned. A coalition of willing nations may
actually work better than ARF or ASEAN plus 3.
Prime Minister Koizumi proposed the setup of “an East Asiancommunity” in Singapore in January 2002. This proposal will be further10

discussed at the forthcoming special summit between the top leaders ofJapan and ASEAN 10. The community concept should lay out a road map toa regime of regional security cooperation.

*President, National Defense Academy. The views expressed herein are theauthor’s and do not represent those of the Japan Defense Agency, withwhich he is affiliated.

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