Activities in FY 2021‐2022
Toshihiko Masui
National Institute for Environmental Studies

The 28th AIM International Workshop
Ohyama Memorial Hall in NIES and Online
September 13 & 14, 2022

"Welcome back to the AIM Workshop!" and"Good to meet you!"

The 25th AIM International Workshop@NIES, Japan, Nov 18‐19, 2019

The 26th AIM International Workshop(Online), Sept. 3‐4, 2020

The 27th AIM International Workshop
2(Online), Sept. 30‐Oct. 1, 2021

IPCC AR6 WG3 was released in April 2022
2010‐2019: Average annual greenhouse gas
emissions at highest levels in human history.
We are not on track to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
But there is increased evidence of climate action.
Unless there are immediate and deep emissions
reductions across all sectors, 1.5°C is beyond
reach.
There are options available now in every sector
that can at least halve emissions by 2030.
Accelerated climate action is critical tosustainable development.
The evidence is clear: The time for action is now.
https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_PressConferenceSlides.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth‐assessment‐report‐working‐group‐3/3

Contribution of AIM to develop long‐term strategies in AsiaThailand:Prof. Bundit Limmeechokchai (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University)
https://unfccc.int/documents/181765
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Thailand_LTS1.pdf

Indonesia:
Prof. Rizaldi Boer (Bogor Agricultural University)
Prof. Retno Gumilang Dewi and Dr. Ucok WR. Siagian (Bandung Institute of Technology)
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Indonesia_LTS‐LCCR_2021.pdf

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Contribution of AIM to develop long‐term strategies in Vietnam
Joint Ministerial Statement: 6thViet Nam ‐ Japan Environmental Policy Dialogue(August 25, 2020)
https://www.env.go.jp/press/files/jp/114598.pdf

Joint Cooperation Plan on Climate Change toward Carbon Neutrality by 2050
between the MOEJ and the MONRE of Viet Nam(November 24, 2021)
https://www.env.go.jp/press/files/jp/117125.pdf

Through the above memorandum among the governments,
AIM team supports development of long‐term scenarios
to assess the net‐zero GHG emissions in Vietnam.
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Updated GHG mitigation goals of JapanGHG Emissions [Gt‐CO2eq]• GHG mitigation target of 2030 (NDC):
GHG emissions
46% reduction compared toin the pastand futureemissions in 2013.
• Long‐term strategy:
Net‐zero GHG emissions, that is,
to realize carbon neutrality by 2050.
• Plan for Global WarmingCountermeasures approved by theCabinet in 2021:"Japan will support the formulation of long‐term strategies using theAsia‐Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), assist in revising NDCs, and help
private companies build institutions and improve their implementation
capacity, thereby contributing to raising the ambition of partnercountries and strengthening their efforts to decarbonize theireconomies.”→ Our research activities based on AIM will be more important!
61514131211109876543
210‐11990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CO2 Energy industries
CO2 Industries
CO2 Commercial
CO2 Residential
CH4
N2OPFCs
SF6
Previous target

2030
2040
CO2 Transportation
Non‐energy CO2HFCs
NF32050

Contribution of AIM to Realization of Decarbonized Society• We could stock a certain level of scientific knowledge on climate change,
and it has been applied to climate policies through the AIM.
More detailed models and analyses are requested by stakeholders toimplement to "evidence‐based decision making."
Since there are still many unknown issues, we need more scientificresearch.
Through the discussion at the 28th AIM International Workshop,
we will share the recent model activities and results, andwe will discuss the future directions of AIM.

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Schedule of the 28th AIM International Workshop (1)• September 13, 2021
 Session 1: Opening Keynote Speeches: Dr. Jae Edmonds, Prof. P.R.Shukla and Dr. S. Nishioka

 Session 2 & 3: GHG mitigation and AIM in Asia
 Thailand Indonesia Vietnam
 China India Malaysia
 Korea Nepal Taiwan8Schedule of the 28th AIM International Workshop (2)• September 14, 2022
 Session 4: Climate impact, adaptation, and sustainability
 Dr. R. Sands, Dr. T. Hasegawa, Dr. S. Xia, Dr. T. Yokohata, Dr. H. Jung, and Dr. F. Liu

 Session 5: From Research to Actions towards Net‐zero Society Discussion of research activities and new research directions‒‒‒‒

Local Decarbonization
National Decarbonization in Asia
SLCFs and Decarbonization in Asia: Activities among UNEP/CCAC & Other Programs
Global Study Session 6: Closing Poster Award Ceremony9

Research on quantification of roadmap toward climate neutral society in Asiandeveloping countries
Final Goal: Realization of Climate Neutral Society From low carbon
Low carbon【Paris Agreement】 to decarbonizedsociety
Development of scenario and roadmap toward
climate neutral society in Asian developing countries

ExSS
Endusemodel

In addition to macro
description, detailed
analysis is needed.

Power plan model

Hourly electricity
supply & demand

Transport model

Passenger & freighttransport volume

Food demand model

Food demand &biomass

CGE model

consumption
behavior

Conventional
analysis

Production
technology &negative emissions

Social, economic and cultural background
Available resources

This research framework

Urban transport
Interregionaltransport
Resources &materials
Buildings
Biomass
Energy system
Agri & Livestock
Forestry & landuse
Tech & Finance
Governance10 actions toward
Low carbon Asia

Conventionalframework

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Examples of UNEP CCAC Reports in the past & future

EconomicAssessment ofSLCP
Mitigations
The Climate and Integrated Assessment Air Pollution in Asia
Environmental Benefitsof SLCPsand the Pacific(2019)of Controlling SLCPs
in Latin America
in P.R.China
and the Caribbean
Integrated Assessment of(2015)(2016)
Black Carbon andTropospheric Ozone(2011)This report broughta trigger to start
focusing on SLCPs
globally[Today’s Main Discussion]
How can AIM team contribute to“Economic Assessment of SLCP mitigations”
to bring a next global movement?

(Under discussion)
Global Methane Assessment:
Benefits and Costs of Mitigating
Methane Emissions

What’s next inplan?

(2021)

This report broughta trigger to launch
Global CH4 Pledge
at COP2611

Schedule of the 28th AIM International Workshop (3)• Poster session
 Poster session has already started on September 7.
 Please give your comments and questions to each poster.
Comment Sheet will be sent to aim‐as‐nies@nies.go.jp by September 30.
 By 3 pm on September 14 of Japan Time, please vote for the best poster from thefollowing URL or QR code.
https://forms.office.com/r/Lds3cmdcbf

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Online training workshop on September 27‐29, 2022
• With LoCARNet and Center for Climate Change Adaptation of NIES, the training
workshop will be held at 13:00‐18:00 on September 27‐29, 2022.
• Anticipated participants are stakeholders including policy makers. The final goal is togive participants an understanding of the role of the model and an overview of AIM tobuild good communicate between model researchers and stakeholders.
• Day 1 (September 27, 2022)
 Session 1: Opening What is model and AIM? / Climate policy and AIM
 Session 2: ExSS Extended SnapShot tool
• Day 2 (September 28,2022)
 Session 3: Climate change impacts & adaptation and AIM
 Introduction of AP‐PLAT / New CMIP6 tool "ClimoCast" /Climate Impact Viewer / Other AP‐PLAT Tools
 Session 4: AIM/Enduse• Day 3 (September 29, 2022)
 Session 5: AIM/CGE Session 6: Discussion on how to apply AIM in your country• If you want to attend this event to discuss with stakeholders, please access thefollowing URL or QR code.
https://forms.gle/8P7q58mx2qAwzEPx613

Interactions between stakeholders and model researchers
to realize decarbonized society
Decarbonized societyLong‐term strategy, updated NDC, climate policy assessment, etc.
• Socio‐economic forecasts & Requests
future vision• Proposition of climate policies
and actions• Information of new technologies• Preference change

Model to assess climate
mitigation actions

TransparencyResults• Actual policies & actions• Further discussion amongstakeholders
Properunderstandingof model

Stakeholders• Model development and update based on thefeedback from stakeholders' opinion• Simulation of climate policies and actions
using model• Development of storylines using results

Researchers
14Expected structure to support climate policy in Asian country
NDC and LTS

Agreement
between countries

Government

Policy needs& requests
Otherstake‐
holders

MOEJ, Embassy, JICA
Provision of numerical results
Policy support

Research institute(AIM members)

Research requests
AIM team

Other
stake‐holders

Research collaboration, Provision of AIM,
Analysis support, Capacity development【Asian country】【Japan】

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Let's discuss to realize a decarbonized society

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