The 25th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Climate Change Mitigation & AIMin Thailand
November 18, 2019

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
THAMMASAT University

Unofficial High-level Workshop on Climate Policy and Assessment, 5 Jul 2019

MOEJ ONEP

TGO

SCG

TGO

TGO

2Sharing of View on Climate Change Policies and Mitigation Actions in THAILAND
Pullman KingPower Hotel, BANGKOK, 30 October 20193

Climate Change Policies and Mitigation in THAILANDBANGKOK, 30 October 2019

MOEJ

ONEP

SCG

SIIT-TU
SIIT-TU

TGO
TGO

TGO

ONEP

ONEP

FTI

IGES

JAPANEMBASSYBANGKOKONEPMHIRTGONIES

Nontha Buri

Chiang Mai

CITY

4CITY

Thailand’s PM Delivered National Climate Pledge at Paris Summit
Economy-wide emissions in BAU“The 20% is a goal to be achieved by thecountry's resources alone while theadditional 5% will require international
support in terms of finance, knowhowand technology”

5TRENDS OF GHG EMISSIONS ANDTOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION: 2000-2013
Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste

Total final energy consumption

400,000

80,000350,000

70,000300,000

60,000250,000

50,000200,000

40,000150,000

30,000100,000

20,00050,00010,0000Final energy consumption (ktoe)

GHG emissions (Gg CO2eq)

Energy

0
2000

2001

2002

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6

GHG EMISSIONS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR: 2013
1A1 Public Electricity & Heat
Production, 98,537.77, GgCO2eq
41.59%

1B2 Oil and Natural Gas,
9,455.77 GgCO2eq, 3.99%
1B1 Solid Fuels,
668.23 GgCO2eq, 0.28%
1A4 Other Sectors,
20,561.91 GgCO2eq, 8.68%

1A3 Transport,
61,175.42 GgCO2eq, 25.82%

Source: Second BUR

236,936.48 GgCO2eq

1A2 Manufacturing Industries andConstruction , 46,537.39 GgCO2eq,19.64%

2013

7TRENDS OF GHG EMISSIONSIN ENERGY SECTOR
Energy Industries
Transport
Solid fuels

Manufacturing Industries and Construction
OtherOil&natural gas

300,000
GHG Emissions (GgCO2eq)

250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

Manufacturing
Transport
Power02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Second BUR

8Present Policies and Technologies of THAILAND NDCALTERNATIVE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2018
RE Electricity(MW)AEDP 2015
TargetDifference
2018New Target2015

AEDP 2018

ExistingPDP2018

Solar PV6,000

2,849

12,725

15,574

9,574

Biomass

5,570

2,290

3,496

5,786

216

Wind

3,002

1,504

1,485

2,989

13

Biogas (Waste)

600

382

546

928

328

Municipal Solid Waste

500

500

400

900

400

Industrial waste

50

31

44

75

25

Mini-hydro

376

188

-

188

188

2,906

2,918

-

2,918

12680

---

680

Large hydro (EGAT)
Biogas (Crop)Total
RE electricity (%)
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2019

19,68420%

10,662
10%

18,69620%

29,358
33%

9,674

13%
9

Present Policies and Technologies of THAILAND NDC•Climate Change Master Plan for2015–2050•

Renewable energy
generation and consumption•

Power Development Plan (PDP)
for 2015–2036••

Thailand Smart Grid Development
Master Plan for 2015–2036

Freight and passenger
transport (mass rapid transitlines, double-track railways,
bus transit improvements)•

Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP) for
2015–2036•

Waste-to-energytechnologies•

Alternative Energy Development
Plan (AEDP) for 2015–2036•

Environmentally Sustainable
Transport System Plan for 2013–2030•

National Industrial Development
Master Plan for 2012–2031•

Waste Management Roadmap

Present Policies and Technologies of THAILAND NDCENERGY EFFICIENCY PLAN 2015
EE Measures
Measure for designated factory and buildings
management
Measure for building standard/building codes
Measure for energy efficiency standard and labeling
Measure on compulsory energy efficiency resource
standards (EERS) for energy production
Measure for financial support
Measure on the use of LED
Measure on energy conservation in the transportation
sectorMeasure for promotion of education, research,technology development on energy conservation
Measure on personnel development in energy
conservation fields
Measure to create public awareness on energy
conservation
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2019

Energy Saving (ktoe)Target EEP 2015
5,156
1,166
4,150
500

9,524
991
30,213-11

Present Policies and Technologies of THAILAND NDCMASS RAPID TRANSIT IN BANGKOK2019 Bangkok area

2025 Bangkok area

2021 Monorail, Government Complex

Source: Mass rapid transit authority of Thailand

12

THAILAND’S GHG EMISSION AND
MITIGATION: NDC 2030
600

20%

GHG
mitigation

GHG Emission (MtCO2eq)

500
400
300
555.0

439.4

200

237.4
100

GHG mitigation- Power 24 MtCO2eq- Industry 43 MtCO2eq- Transport 41 MtCO2eq- Residential 4 MtCO2eq- Commercial 1 MtCO2eq- IPPU 0.6 MtCO2eq-Waste 2 MtCO2eq
Total GHG mitigation

115.6 MtCO2eq02005

2030

2030NDC

14

CONCLUSIONS• The macroeconomic impacts of peak emission scenarios
are assessed.
• An economic structural and energy system changes are
required to avoid enormous costs in reducing GHG
emissions to the targets.
• Lowering the activity level of the energy-intensive
industries, improving end-use EE, switching fuel,deploying CCS technologies in the power and industrial
sectors, and expanding RE technologies are identified tobe important mitigation measures for Thailand in
attaining emissions peak by 2030 in order to contributetowards the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement.
15• The figure suggests that early
actions should be taken toachieve net zero CO2emissions.

• CO2 emissions should peak in2015 at US$1,000 /tCO2 in
the CCS_REHH scenario.
• Because of renewable energy
deployment and fossil fuelbased with CCS and BECCS,
CO2 emissions arecompletely removed fromthe power sector in theCCS_REHH scenario.

16

CONCLUSIONS• Keeping net cumulative carbon emissions virtually zero can be achieved
during 2030-2050.
• Zero CO2 emissions strategies for THAILAND• CCS technologies (fossil-based fuel plants integrated with CCS andBECCS)• Stringent RE target• CO2 emission taxes (US$500-US$1000 per tCO2)• Climate change awareness• Capacity building for organizations, government and communities
Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy123

45

CCS & BECCS

Stringent RE• Electricity
generation• Manufacturi
ng industry

CO2 emission
taxes

Capacitybuilding• Electricity
generation• Vehicle

Climatechangeawareness17

GHG Emissions from AFOLU sector during 2015-2050 (Mt-CO2e)18

Table 2 Countermeasure in the Agriculture Sector Thailand
Cost/unit
in 2010 US$Mitigation
tCO2eq/unit/yrRef.

Head-21.20.45[18,19]High genetic merit

Head

00.32

[32-34]

Dome digester

Heada

440.62[35]

Daily spread manureHead2.20.33[35]

Midseason drainage

Hectare00.36[9,32]

Incorporation of off-season rice Hectare
straw

00.45

[9,32]

Replace urea with ammonium
sulphate

Hectare1.50.12[9,32]

High-efficiency fertilizer

Hectare320.65[9]

Slow-release fertilizerapplication

Hectare

2150

0.76

[35]

Tillage and residue
management

Hectare

50.08

[36]

Emission
Sources

Mitigation options

Enteric
fermentation

Improved feeding (replacingroughage with concentrates)

Manuremanagement
Rice cultivation

Managed soils

Unitapplication

a The dome digester cost has been converted into cost per head by dividing the cost by number of cows/buffaloes

Center for Applied Economic Research (CAER). Support to the development and implementation of the Thai climate change policy.
Thailand: Kasetsart University; 2018.

Table 3 Countermeasure in the LULUCF Sector Thailand
Mitigation options

Cost(US$/ha/year)

Mitigation(tCO2eq/ha/year)

Sustainable management of production
forest areasa

15.4

11.3

Conservation of existing protection forests

23.0

11.1

Reforestationb

58.1

13.6

Planting long-rotation large timber treesa

9.3

19.6

Growing long-rotation non-timber productforesta

7.0

14.6

Reduction impact logging

27.8

5.1

Sources: aHoa et al. [18], bGraham et al. [14]Center for Applied Economic Research (CAER). Support to the development and implementation of the Thai climate change policy.
Thailand: Kasetsart University; 2018.

CONCLUSIONS• This study used AFOLU-B, which is a bottom-up model,
for the analysis• Net sequestration in AFOLU sector will be possible
with mitigation/sequestration measures• Net emission from the AFOLU would increase from 8.3
MtCO2eq in 2015 to 24.6 MtCO2eq in 2050.
• In 2050, net sequestration would be 1.2 MtCO2eq at
carbon price of $5 per tCO2eq, 21.4 at $10 per tCO2eq
and 26.8MtCO2eq at $500 per tCO2eq.
• In Thailand AFOLU sector, the carbon price above $10
per tCO2eq will not be effective to achieve significant
additional mitigation/sequestration.
21

Thailand’s GHG Emission Profile under LTS Scenarios
GHG Emission Profile under BAU, Emission & TechnologyConstraint Scenarios Including Carbon Tax

LTS Scenarios with Carbon TaxScenario

Availability ofTechnology

GHG Emission Constraint
2030
2050
BAUAllEmission Constraint Scenarios including Carbon Tax of
US$100/tCO2eq
CT100-2DS-20
All
20%
60%
CT100-2DS-25
All
25%60%
CT100-B2DS-20
All
20%
90%
CT100-B2DS-25
All
25%
90%
Emission & Technology Constraint Scenarios including Carbon Tax of
US$100/tCO2eq•A higher GHG emission constraint scenarios of 20%-90% & 25%-90% during2030 to 2050 along with the imposition of carbon tax of US$100/tCO2e forces
the selection of BECCS & Nuclear Power leading to negative emissions.

CT100-2DS-20woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

20%60%

CT100-2DS-25woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

25%60%

CT100-B2DS-20woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

20%

90%

CT100-B2DS-25woBN

Without both
BECCS &
nuclear power

25%

90%

•In the absence of BECCS & Nuclear Power, the GHG
emissions would be higher & positive during 2035 to2050.

Updated Thailand’s AIM/Enduse model in the residential sector
ENERGYTECHNOLOGIESFLU_T8
FLU_T5
FLU_LED
CFL_EXTLB_EXT
LB_NEWELYSERVICE/ENERGYTECHNOLOGIES(DUMMY)AREA_FLU_FC

AREA_FLU_FXSERVICE

AREA_LTG
AREA_LB_FC

AREA_LB_FX

KET_EXT
KET_NEWAREA_BWT

AC_EXT
AC_COP5
AC_COP8

AREA_CLS

FAN_EXTFAN_NEWAREA_FAN

TV_EXT
TV_LCD
TV_LED
TV_NEW

AREA_TV

REF_EXTREF_COP5
REF_COP8

AREA_CLG

IRON_EXT
IRON_NEWAREA_IRON

Updated Thailand’s AIM/Enduse model in the residential sector
ENERGYTECHNOLOGIESSERVICE/ENERGYTECHNOLOGIES(DUMMY)SERVICE

ELY

SOLAR

WASH_EXTWASH_NEWAREA_WASH

COM_EXT
COM_NEWAREA_COM

WTH_EXTWTH_NEWWTH_SOLAR

AREA_HWTVDO_EXTVDO_NEW
RAO_EXTRAO_NEWTEL_EXTTEL_NEW

LPG
KER

FWD
CHAR
PAD

MCW_EXTMCW_NEW
EL_CK_EXT
EL_CK_NEW
EL_STV_EXT
EL_STV_NEW
LPG_STV_EXT
LPG_STV_NEW
KER_STV_EXT
KER_STV_NEW
FWD_STV_EXT
FWD_STV_NEW
CHAR_STV_EXT
CHAR_STV_NEW
PAD_STV_EXT
PAD_STV_NEW

AREA_VDO_FC

AREA_VDO_FX

AREA_RAO_FC

AREA_RAO_FX

AREA_TEL_FCAREA_TEL_FX

AREA_MCW_FC

AREA_MCW_FX

AREA_CK_FC

AREA_CK_FX

AREA_ENTAREA_CKGAREA_STV_FC

AREA_STV_FX