Updates on AIM global modeling and relevantinternational activities
Shinichiro Fujimori
Kyoto University
AIMWS
15th September ,2023

International activities• IAMC SWG on national scenarios will be practically activated this year

• IAM MIPs: ELEVATE (International policy, European Horizon)
 NAVIGATE (Inequality, European Horizon) JMIP (Japanese policy, MOEJ)• AgMIP New exercise starts as EAT-Lancet framework
 AIM proposes a new study on Ozone impact on food security• ScenarioMIP (CMIP)

 Designing new climate community scenarios• GEO (Global Environmental Outlook) 7 Contribution to providing illustrative scenarios for solution pathways
 CLA contribution

Model overview
Covered area

ModelsSpatialMajor updates
resolution

Publication status

EconomyAIM/Hub (CGE)

17 regions DAC introduction

Fujimori et al. (2023)
Fujimori et al. (in review)
Tsutsui et al. (in review)

EnergyAIM/Technology(Energy system)

31 regions Advanced technology (DAC,synfuel, ammonia etc)
High temporal resolution

Oshiro et al. (2022)
Oshiro et al. (2023)
Oshiro et al. (in review)

Development

AIM/PHI (Household)180
countries

Zhao et al. (2022)
Fujimori et al. (2023)

Land-use

AIM/PLUM (allocation)
AIM/AFOLU (Tech inagr)

Representation in forest
0.5°
17 regions management
National modeling

AtmosphericGEOSCHEM

4x5°

AIM own scenarios can be
implemented

Jansakoo et al. (in review)
Jansakoo et al. (in review)

Biodiversity

AIM/BIO

0.5°-Hirata et al. (in review)

Systemintegration

Hub-Tech model
linkage

Consistent scenarios in energy
and economy

Fujimori et al. (in review)
Nishiura et al. (in review)

National HHS data

Hasegawa et al. (in review)

Energy system• Frontier of the globalenergy systemmodeling Advanced
technologies: e-fuel,hydrogen, ammonia,battery, …
 High temporal
resolution:
representative days’
24 hours, seasonal
storageCarbon dependent net-zero pathway
Scenario framework• Three representative scenarios were quantified• Emission pathways are consistent with 1.5oC goal (500Gt-CO2 by 2100)
Name

Characteristics

Model specification

1.5C-CDR• Offsetting residual emissions by
CDR (BECCS, DACCS)• Model default settings

1.5C-DEC• Attaining DECarbonzation by
renewables and electrification• CCS 4Gt-CO2/yr, bioenergysupply:100EJ/yr(similar to the AR6 IMP-Ren)

1.5C-CCU• Low dependencies on CDR andenergy demand transformation• Synthetic fuels (including e-fuels)
production mainly renewablehydrogen and DAC• In addition to the 1.5C-DEC,• CDR (BECCS+DACCS):1Gt-CO2/yr• Electrified or hydrogen-based
technology diffusion rate: ~50% of
new sales (based on SSP2
assumptions by MESSAGE)
5

Energy demand side changes• Synthetic fuels (incl. methane) accounts for about 30% in the 1.5C-CCU.
• Hydrocarbon energies (fossil, biomass and synthetic fuels) in the 1.5C-CCU: 50%• Moderate technological changes in the energy demand.
• Transport is the largest consumer of synthetic fuels.
Electrification rate(stock base, incl. hydrogen)

Final energy demand6Energy supply transformation• 1.5C-CCU requires drastic changes in the energy supply side.
• Renewable electricity generation exceeds 600EJ in 2050.
• Hydrogen production reaches 250EJ by 2050 (including those for synthetic fuelproduction)• Around a half of generated electricity is lost by conversion losses and energy
consumption for DAC.
Secondary energy flow associated with hydrogen and CCU

7Model overview
Covered area

ModelsSpatialMajor updates
resolution

Publication status

EconomyAIM/Hub (CGE)

17 regions DAC introduction

Fujimori et al. (2023)
Fujimori et al. (in review)
Tsutsui et al. (in review)

EnergyAIM/Technology(Energy system)

31 regions Advanced technology (DAC,synfuel, ammonia etc)
High temporal resolution

Oshiro et al. (2022)
Oshiro et al. (2023)
Oshiro et al. (in review)

Development

AIM/PHI (Household)180
countries

Zhao et al. (2022)
Fujimori et al. (2023)

Land-use

AIM/PLUM (allocation)
AIM/AFOLU (Tech inagr)

Representation in forest
0.5°
17 regions management
National modeling

Atmospheric

GEOSCHEM

4x5°

AIM own scenarios can be
implemented

Jansakoo et al. (in review)
Jansakoo et al. (in review)

Biodiversity

AIM/BIO

0.5°-Hirata et al. (in review)

Systemintegration

Hub-Tech model
linkage

Consistent scenarios in energy
and economy

Fujimori et al. (in review)
Nishiura et al. (in review)

National HHS data

Hasegawa et al. (in review)

Questioning current climate scenario framework•Does the RCP-SSP framework sufficiently covers the range of climate? In particularly, lower boundary??
Reasons to consider low temperature stabilization• Already visible impacts• Heat wave
• Intensified rainfall• Frequent wildfires etc.
Existing• Risk of irreversible changes such as
scenarios
continuous sea level rise (at least several
hundred years)
Missing space in the• Would CDR condition be unchanged?
current scenario
framework (SSP-RCP) • Would 1.5 °C be immobilized ultimate
climate goal?

Consideration for climate return

Ultra largescale CDR

Deep negative emissions

Potential new research agenda
for new climate return scenarios
WG1• Long-term sea level changes• Irreversible risk assessment• Carbon cycle responses• Risk of cooling the earth

WG2• Risk reduction from 1.5 °C• Assessment on best climate change levels andadaptation strategy• Ecosystem responses

WG3• Feasibility assessment on ultra large-scale CDRs
• Socioeconomic impacts induced by ultra largescale CDRs

Fujimori et al.(Under review)CGE model update: DAC representation

Global mean temperature

Emissions

CDR portofolio

Model overview
Covered area

ModelsSpatialMajor updates
resolution

Publication status

EconomyAIM/Hub (CGE)

17 regions DAC introduction

Fujimori et al. (2023)
Fujimori et al. (in review)
Tsutsui et al. (in review)

EnergyAIM/Technology(Energy system)

31 regions Advanced technology (DAC,synfuel, ammonia etc)
High temporal resolution

Oshiro et al. (2022)
Oshiro et al. (2023)
Oshiro et al. (in review)

Development

AIM/PHI (Household)180
countries

Zhao et al. (2022)
Fujimori et al. (2023)

Land-use

AIM/PLUM (allocation)
AIM/AFOLU (Tech inagr)

Representation in forest
0.5°17 regions management
National modeling

AtmosphericGEOSCHEM

4x5°

AIM own scenarios can be
implemented

Jansakoo et al. (in review)
Jansakoo et al. (in review)

Biodiversity

AIM/BIO

0.5°-Hirata et al. (in review)

Systemintegration

Hub-Tech model
linkage

Consistent scenarios in energy
and economy

Fujimori et al. (in review)
Nishiura et al. (in review)

National HHS data

Hasegawa et al. (in review)

Poverty headcount could increase due to climatechange mitigation•••

Historically declined.
Baseline is projected continuously due to the income
growth in low-income countries.
Climate change mitigation increases poverty headcount•Price and income effects

Fujimori et al.(2023)

Decomposition of price, income and carbon taxeffects• Three effects decomposition•

Price(mitigation cost
distributional effects), incomeand direct carbon tax onhousehold• Overall, carbon tax effects arelarge• In the near-term, relatively
income is large

Model overview
Covered area

ModelsSpatialMajor updates
resolution

Publication status

EconomyAIM/Hub (CGE)

17 regions DAC introduction

Fujimori et al. (2023)
Fujimori et al. (in review)
Tsutsui et al. (in review)

EnergyAIM/Technology(Energy system)

31 regions Advanced technology (DAC,synfuel, ammonia etc)
High temporal resolution

Oshiro et al. (2022)
Oshiro et al. (2023)
Oshiro et al. (in review)

Development

AIM/PHI (Household)180
countries

Zhao et al. (2022)
Fujimori et al. (2023)

Land-use

AIM/PLUM (allocation)
AIM/AFOLU (Tech inagr)

Representation in forest
0.5°
17 regions management
National modeling

Atmospheric

GEOSCHEM

4x5°

AIM own scenarios can be
implemented

Jansakoo et al. (in review)
Jansakoo et al. (in review)

Biodiversity

AIM/BIO

0.5°-Hirata et al. (in review)

Systemintegration

Hub-Tech model
linkage

Consistent scenarios in energy
and economy

Fujimori et al. (in review)
Nishiura et al. (in review)

National HHS data

Hasegawa et al. (in review)Land and agriculture: national representation
National AFOLU emissions in 2050

Top countries for potential reduction in AFOLU• Top 12 countries dominate 60% of abatement• Asia is the major contributing continent.

Model overview
Covered area

ModelsSpatialMajor updates
resolution

Publication status

EconomyAIM/Hub (CGE)

17 regions DAC introduction

Fujimori et al. (2023)
Fujimori et al. (in review)
Tsutsui et al. (in review)

EnergyAIM/Technology(Energy system)

31 regions Advanced technology (DAC,synfuel, ammonia etc)
High temporal resolution

Oshiro et al. (2022)
Oshiro et al. (2023)
Oshiro et al. (in review)

Development

AIM/PHI (Household)180
countries

Zhao et al. (2022)
Fujimori et al. (2023)

Land-use

AIM/PLUM (allocation)
AIM/AFOLU (Tech inagr)

Representation in forest
0.5°
17 regions management
National modeling

Atmospheric

GEOSCHEM

4x5°

AIM own scenarios can be
implemented

Jansakoo et al. (in review)
Jansakoo et al. (in review)

Biodiversity

AIM/BIO

0.5°-Hirata et al. (in review)

Systemintegration

Hub-Tech model
linkage

Consistent scenarios in energy
and economy

Fujimori et al. (in review)
Nishiura et al. (in review)

National HHS data

Hasegawa et al. (in review)

Atmospheric modeling
LegendModel

Chemical Trasport Model

Socio-economic
assumptions

EAT-Lancet
Commission

AIM/CGE

AIM/Downscaling

GHGs and air
pollution
emissions

GridedEmission
Flux•••

ModuleEm issio n s •Tra n sp o rt •Ch e m istr
yAe ro so lsd e p o sitionGlobal burden disease
database(Base Moretaility)

PSMDA8(Ozone)

PM2.5

GEOS-Chem

External data

Health Impact Assessment

Re-analysis

Emission Mesh Data

Internal data

Exposure Model

Remap

Mortality
LifeExpectancy

Meteorological Data
Year of Life Loss (YLLs)

Fixed in 2016

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) andTropospheric Ozone (O3)
Simulation (2015-2100) 0.5o x 0.5oGDP

VSLY

SCENARIOSCENARIO 0:
Baseline

SCENARIO 1:
Dietary change
and food loss reduction

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2(SSPs) scenario, also known as the "middleof the road" scenario was used to be abaseline scenario to represent current
situation and future trend that energy use isdominated by fossil fuels, with renewableenergy sources playing a minor role andclimate change mitigation policy will be
not applied in this scenario.

In the future eating behavior of the people
will change to be healthier by consume
plant base protein from beans, lentils,
pulses instead of red meat and dairy
product according to the EAT-Lancet
commission, red meat consumption would
be cut by 50% by 2050. In term of foodloss reduction, SDG target 12.3 would beapplied by halve global per capita foodwaste in 2030

SCENARIO 3:

SCENARIO 2:
Climate change
mitigation policy

coupling mitigation of climatechange policy with dietary change
and food loss reduction

we refer to the Paris
Agreement's objective ofreducing global warming
to 1.5 degrees Celsius
over pre-industrial levels

Atmospheric and Thermal Environmental Engineering Laboratory

The simultaneous
implementation of policies
and strategies that address
both the environmental
impacts of the food systemand dietary habits ofindividuals.

Jansakoo et al.(Under review)19Dietary change impacts on air quality

EMISSION IMPACT

The impact of dietary transformation and climate change policies on future emissions
Scenario 1

Scenario 0GHGs

Scenario 2
CO2

Scenario 3
CH4“Dietary change and foodloss prevention policy havelittle impact on greenhousegas (GHG) emissions”
 if climate change mitigation measures are
implemented, total GHG emissions willcontinue to be dramatically reduced andreach zero by 2100.

NOxSOxVOCs

 Furthermore, when these measures are
combined with dietary changes andreductions in food loss, it is possible toachieve GHG negative emissions by 2100.

Atmospheric and Thermal Environmental Engineering Laboratory

21

HEALTH BENEFITS
IER Mortality (5 Cohort Disease)

Atmospheric and Thermal Environmental Engineering Laboratory

22

Final remarks• International activities
 Actively participating in the international community• Model development
 Energy system model has remarkable advancement
 Recent new models (AIM/PHI and GEOSChem) have been wellintegrated within AIM.