Session II

Research Activities
for Low‐Carbon Asia
Junichi Fujino
The 17th AIM International Workshop
Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies
17‐19 February, 2012

Scenario approache towards LCS

Two approaches for ASIA LCS[Top‐down[T[Top‐dapproach]h]Global emissions scenario analysis using
CGE model
Identify the emission allowances for each
Asian country to ensure the global
emissions by half by 2050.
Japan China,
Japan,
China India,
India Korea,
Korea Thailand
Thailand,Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore,
Indonesia and Taiwan.

【BottomB tt ‐up approach】
Bottom‐approachh】
National, local, city‐level approach using asimplified tools
Discuss LCS visions which consider thelocal conditions & targets with local
researchers/policy makers individually.
Malaysia India
Malaysia,India, China,
China Thailand
Thailand, Indonesia
Indonesia,
Vietnam, Ahmedabad city (India), Bhopal
city (India)• Is it feasible to implement a scenario with
cutting the GHG emissions by half in 2050
from 1990 level?
•What
What would be the emission allowance foreach Asian country? What would be theimpact on economy?

•What is the LCS in each region look like?
•Is it possible to achieve the LCS together
with solving the other socio economic issues
in the region?
•What should be done to achieve the vision?

3

Assessment of the “50% reduction” scenario• Reducing GHG emissions by half by 2050 to the1990 level: Feasible• Marginal Abatement Cost: 458 $/tCO2 in 2050•

Cost reduction (possible? How?) : need further discussion• IImpactt on GDP:GDP 2% (In(I some regionsi>10%)• Share of GHG emissions from Asia is increasing. Need to avoid locklock-inof high carbon infrastructure.
100

N非エネルギー
Non-energy
非エネルギ

90

土地利用
Landuse
活動量demand
ServiceG
Gt-CO2-eq/year

80

構造変化change
Structural

70

エネルギー効率
EnergyEfficiency

60

Fuelswitch
燃料転換Electricity
電力需要demand reduction

50

Countermeasures
In the Asia

Generation
発電効率 efficiency

40

Renewable
再生可能

30

原子力
Nuclear
CCS

20

Emission trading (Net import)
排出枠の純輸入

10Emission
ffrom
Asia (Halving(Scenario)
S)
アジアにおける排出量（世界半減時）
ジおける排出量（世界半減時）0Global emission (BAU)
世界の排出量（SLCS）

2005201020152020202520302035204020452050

世界の排出量（世界半減時）
Global emission (Halving scenario)

4Two approaches for ASIA LCS[Top‐down[T[Top‐dapproach]h]Global emissions scenario analysis using
CGE model
Identify the emission allowances for each
Asian country to ensure the global
emissions by half by 2050.
Japan China,
Japan,
China India,
India Korea,
Korea Thailand
Thailand,
Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore,
Indonesia and Taiwan.
• Is it feasible to implement a scenario with
cutting the GHG emissions by half in 2050
from 1990 level?
•WhatWhat would be the emission allowance foreach Asian country? What would be theimpact on economy?

【BottomB tt ‐up approach】
Bottom‐approachh】
National, local, city‐level approach using asimplified tools
Discuss LCS visions which consider thelocal conditions & targets with local
researchers/policy makers individually.
China India
China,India, Korea,
Korea Indonesia,
Indonesia Malaysia,Malaysia
Thailand , Vietnam, Bangladesh,
Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Iskandar, Putrajaya,
Cyberjaya, Rachaburi, Guanzhou, Kyonggi•What is the LCS in each regionglook like?
•Is it possible to achieve the LCS togetherwith solving the other socio economic issues
in the region?
•What should be done to achieve the vision?

5How to deploy our study to real world
Policy makers
Central/regional
government
administration
DDevelopmentlt
Agencies
NGOs

Collaboration for LCS
scenario development andbuilding roadmaps

Each country’s
ydomestic/ local
research
instituteCore researchmembers

Request of more practical,
realistic roadmaps and also
tractable tools for real world

A li ti andApplication
ddevelopment toactual LCS
processes

Development andmaintenance ofstudy tools/models

Bangladesh

Vietnam

KoreaChinaIndiaJapanThailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

“Sustainable” Low‐Carbon Society
To Make it Happen!
• Model Development+ Scenario/Action Making& Consensus Building• Co‐benefit/Multi‐benefit => QOL• Networking => Knowledge sharing& collective creation of SLCS design7