22th AIM International workshop

Output of Project S14-5
Qian ZHOUNational Institute for Environmental Studies

What’s Project S14?

What’s Project S14?
S14: Professor Oki Taikan
The University of Tokyo

S14-5: Section head:
Dr. Hijioka Yasuaki
S14-5(2)Dr. Hanasaki Naota
Dr. Qian ZHOU

What did we do in Project S14-5(2)?
Mission: Establishing theoretical and technical foundation forcoupling Global Hydrology model H08 and CGE model
PI: Dr. Hanasaki Naota
Dr. Zhou Qian
Focus: Water constraints on global hydropower and thermoelectric
supply capability under climate change

Background: hydropower supply• Currently, hydropower is a dominant renewable resource due to its
low cost and low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IEA, 2012).

• However, hydropower potential is effected by climate change

Background: thermal power supply
Climate change

Cooling water shortage

Thermal power plantshut down5

How climate change constraints hydropower and thermal power
supply capability through water ?

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6

Hydropower 2
Hydropower
Hydropower 11
Thermal power 1
Thermal power 2 and 3

On the way…...
Zhou et al. 201?
Zhou et al. 2016
Zhou et al. 20172017/12/1

Under preparation

7

Hydropower 1

Model-Based Analysis of Impact of Climate change andMitigation on Hydropower

Qian ZHOU, Naota HANASAKI, Shinichiro FUJIMORI, Yoshimitsu MASAKIand Yasuaki HIJIOKA
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Research Questions
This paper aims to address following research questions:• What is the state-of-the-art knowledge on the impact of climate change onhydropower?
• What are the potential key interactions of combining physical models and economic
models in terms of hydropower in global and regional scales?
• How significant such interactions are?

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9Method• Global Hydrology model• AIM/CGE model

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Zhou et al. 201610

IAM model Fix thehydropower supply capability

Results
Physicalmodel

Economicmodel

Supply potential is variable
Electricity
Generationincrease fast

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Zhou et al. 2016

Results

Decreased
supply potential

Global hydropower supply potential is variable
Increased

Zhou et al. 2016

Results

Climate change impact on hydropower potential
Mitigation impact on hydropower generation

Zhou et al. 2016

Questions

Is climate change impact on hydropower potential is negligible?
How to quantify economy consequence of hydropower potential change?

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Hydropower 2
Hydropower 1
Thermal power 1
Thermal power 2 and 3

On the way…...
Zhou et al. 201?
Zhou et al. 2016
Zhou et al. 20172017/12/1

Under preparation

15

Hydropower 2

Economic consequences of global climatechange and mitigation on future hydropower
Qian ZHOU, Naota HANASAKI, Shinichiro FUJIMORI,
Yoshimitsu MASAKI and Yasuaki HIJIOKA

Methodology
How to quantify economy consequence of hydropower potential change?

Results Hydropower Generation change
no Mitigation

Mitigation

Figure 4. Magnitude of hydropower generation changes

Results Why GDP changes is different in these regions?
no Mitigation

Mitigation

Figure 4. Magnitude of GDP changes

Results GCMs uncertainty analysis for GDP
no Mitigation

Mitigation

Figure 9. Magnitude of GDP changes due to individual and ensemble GCM based MAHG shocks

Hydropower 2
Hydropower 1
Thermal power
power 11
ThermalThermal power 2 and 3

On the way…...
Zhou et al. 201?
Zhou et al. 2016
Zhou et al. 20172017/12/1

Under preparation

21

Thermal power 1

An Analysis on Hypothetical Shocks Representing Cooling Water
Shortage Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model
Qian ZHOU, Naota Hanasaki, Jun’ya TAKAKURA, Shinichiro FUJIMORI,Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI and Yasuaki HIJIOKA
National Institute for Environmental Studies

22

Background• In 2007, nuclear and coal-fired plants in the Tennessee Valley Authority
system were forced to shut down or curtail operations because intake water
exceeded 90 F (32.2°C) for 24 hours• In 2003, France lost the electricity production of 7% to 15% of nuclear
capacity for 5 weeks (DOE, 2012)23

Research Question• What is the socio-economic consequence of giving a certain intensity ofshock representing the shortage of cooling water in thermal power sectors
under the framework of a computable general equilibrium model?

• How the shock in thermal power sectors propagates into the global economy.

24

Method: Framework-

How to numerate cooling water shortage for CGE input data?

-

How to connect cooling water shortage with CGE model?

AIM/CGE model

Hypothetical Shocks:
4 days/year power plants shut down: 4/365≈1% reduction

Result: How were electricity and GDP changed?
abcdFig. 3(a) Thermal power change compared with baseline in 2050 in ARAY scenario.
(b) Mean difference in electricity generation (EG) from the baseline (between 2005 and 2100).
(c) The rate of thermal electricity production to total electricity production in 2005.
(d) GDP change compared with baseline in 2050 in ARAY scenario

26

Hydropower 2
Hydropower 1
Thermal power 1
ThermalThermalpower
power22andand33

On the way…...
Zhou et al. 201?
Zhou et al. 2016
Zhou et al. 20172017/12/1

Under preparation

27

Thermal power 2 and 3

Topic 1: Global thermal power usable capacity reduction fromcooling water consumption shortage attributable to climatechangeTopic 2: Economic consequences of cooling water shortage
impact on thermoelectric supply capability under climatechange

Results• How climate change
impact the global
thermoelectric usablecapacity?
• 5 GCMs• RCP2.6 and RCP8.5

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Results— RCP2.6— RCP8.5

USA
Usable capacity change (%)

GCM: MIROC

Data: 2005-2100

GDP change (%)— RCP2.6— RCP8.5

Summary• Climate change impact on hydropower andthermoelectric potential should not be negligible in IAM

2017/12/131Acknowledgements• The Environment Research and Technology Development
Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan,
supported this work.

22th AIM International workshop
Thank you very much for your attention!
zhou.qian@nies.go.jp

2017/12/133

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