CTBT Study Group “Participation Report – CTBT International Scientific Studies Conference(ISS09)”
June 17, 2009, Large Conference Room, Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)[Research overview]
In its capacity as the domestic secretariat for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) on
behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the JIIA Center for Disarmament andNon-proliferation has invited Japanese and foreign researchers/experts in technical,
academic and political fields connected with the monitoring and verification of nuclear
testing to serve as instructors for research meetings. This study group basically comprises
officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology, the Meteorological Agency, the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, theJapan Weather Association, and JIIA’s Center for Disarmament and Non-proliferation.
[Overview of FY2009 1st CTBT Study Group Meeting]The 1st CTBT Study Group Meeting in FY2009, entitled “Participation Report – CTBTInternational Scientific Studies Conference (ISS09)” held in Vienna, Austria from June 10-12,
featured reports by Kinji Koyama, Visiting Research Fellow, Center for Disarmament andNon-proliferation, Japan Institute of International Relations, Tatsuhiko Hara, SeniorResearch Fellow, Building Research Institute, and Takahiko Murayama, Engineer, Japan
Weather Association, as well as a discussion with CTBT Study Group participants. Thefollowing is an overview of the reports for the 1st CTBT Study Group Meeting.

[1. ISS09 Summary by ABE Nobuyasu, CDN Director]
Mr. Abe began by expressing his genuine belief that this project, by participating in ISS09
and inviting not only scientists and engineers in CTBT-related technical fields but also
politicians, diplomats, and media representatives, offered an opportunity to present thelatest technological developments relating to CTBT verification technology, and by
expressing regrets that the project had been unable to get as many politicians anddiplomatic officials from various countries as had been expected to participate in themeeting. However, he also declared that the ISS09 project itself was extremely significant in
the sense that a CTBT verification system was being developed to keep pace withtechnological progress, and he welcomed the decision to hold a follow-up to ISS09 in 2011(“ISS11 2011 ISS Symposium”).

As for his impressions during ISS09, he noted that thecontributions of the technical experts from the US and the presence of diplomats andspecialists from EU countries were particularly notable, and that Japan still had much roomto contribute in terms of both technical expertise and presence.

1. ISS09

isaninternational

conference

foranalyzing

thefunctions

ofmonitoring/observation technology relevant to verification of CTBT compliance (seismicwaves, hydroacoustic waves, minute pressure vibrations, and radionuclides) and data
analysis methods, analyzing/assessing the verification capabilities of current verification
systems, including on-site inspections, and clarifying their status, sharing information on
the current status of the CTBT verification regime with the diplomats and policy makers
of signatory countries to clarify those areas in which augmentation and improvement arenecessary, and indicating ways of building a more effective and efficient verification
system (the ISS09 results are to be compiled in a report for distribution to CTBTsignatory countries).

The CTBT Organization Preparatory Committee has made theISS09 program available at the following URL:
http://www.CTBTO.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ISS_2009/ISS_Programme.pdf[2. Report by Kinji Koyama, Visiting Research Fellow, CDN]
Next came a report by Kinji Koyama, Visiting Research Fellow, who participated in ISS09 as
an integrator.

He commented as an ISS09 integrator that care had been taken to arrange

an opportunity for technical experts to disseminate information in a fashion readily
understandable to a general audience and to answer the questions of non-specialist
conference participants (politicians, diplomats, press representatives).

During the panel

discussion on the minimum scale of explosion (yield) deemed currently detectable, theparticipants were asked to consider multiple facets of verification technology, and a varietyof very interesting viewpoints were forthcoming with respect to seismic waves,hydroacoustic waves, minute pressure vibrations, etc.

Although on-site inspections are the mainstay of the CTBT verification regime, Mr. Koyama
did have an undeniable sense that these had been marginalized.

Nevertheless, the on-site

inspection Integrated Field Exercise (IFE08) hinted at future improvements, and hereconfirmed that the on-site inspections ensuing after failures by the CTBT International
Monitoring System (IMS) to detect radionuclides generated by a nuclear explosion wereaimed at checking for the presence of these radionuclides.

On defining readiness andassessing current readiness, important topics of dispute among CTBT officials in recentyears, he stated that CTBT organs only engage in monitoring and verification activities – thepremise being that assessment of the data from these monitoring/verification activities is left

to independent analysis by signatory countries to determine if there has been a treaty
violation – and added that the inability to initiate on-site inspections due to a lack ofreadiness on the part of CTBT signatory countries could have a fatally adverse impact on
the CTBT’s verification regime.

He also declared that, when the “CTBT community” of CTBT technical experts anddiplomatic delegations joined politicians, diplomats, journalists and people of various otherbackgrounds from different countries in debates on the CTBT during ISS09, the parties
involved all shared the view that the absence of a “common language” was a major obstacle
to mutual understanding and that this issue should be given further consideration prior toISS11 in two years.2

2. The poster session presentations by domestic research organizations in signatory
countries numbered more than 200 in total; these reports will be published on CTBTorganizations’ official websites.

[3. Report by Tatsuhiko Hara, Senior Research Fellow, Building Research Institute]
Mr. Hara, Senior Research Fellow, introduced the Global Seismological Observation Course
as his presentation topic for ISS09.

The Building Research Institute has accepted acumulative total of more than 1,300 trainees since the early 1960s.

Started in 1995 topromote enforcement of the CTBT, the Global Seismological Observation Course has
already been completed by 139 persons from 69 countries, and efforts are being made tohelp trainees acquire the seismic observation techniques needed for detection of nuclear
tests as well as the analytic skills to distinguish between nuclear tests and natural
earthquakes.

Mr. Hara said that the opportunity afforded him to make a presentation at

ISS09 also allowed him to hear the latest arguments put forth by countries on seismologicalmonitoring technology, information that would be extremely useful in studying how best to
carry out global seismological observation training in future. He added that he would like toparticipate and made a presentation at ISS11 in 2011, in particular the panel report onenhancing nuclear test detection capabilities.

[4. Report by Takahiko Murayama, Engineer, Japan Weather Association]
Mr. Murayama offered an in-depth look at his ISS09 presentation topic “An approach fordenoising waveform data by auto-regressive algorithm.”

He reported on a method ofeliminating the background noise inherent to monitoring facilities by applying an
auto-regression model to the waveform data for monitored minute air pressure fluctuations

and extracting a pure minute air pressure fluctuation waveform, and he went on to explain itseffectiveness. As the presentation started into the minute air pressure fluctuation branch,
the meeting organizers, deeming the method fundamental to waveform data analysis ingeneral, moved the presentation on to new methods for processing observed waveform data.
A wealth of examples – including offshore earthquakes in Miyazaki Prefecture, crashlandings at Narita Airport, and the Mt. Asama volcanic eruption – illustrated the effectivenessof this data analysis, prompting a flood of inquiries from the ISS09 participants.

Given thesmall number of experts worldwide in the field of minute air pressure fluctuation, Mr.
Murayama expressed interest in pursuing closer exchange with specialists/researchers inminute air pressure fluctuations from other countries.