Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies andPerspective：Leapfrog Asia

15th AIM International Workshop
22 February 2010, Tsukuba

Shuzo Nishioka

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Low Carbon Asia:Background• Growing needs for establishing new global orderfor reducing GHG emissions• How to promote developing countries, inparticular developing Asia, shift to low carbon
society is one of the key challenges in futureclimate regime.
• Although numerous previous studies on climatechange have been conducted from sustainable
development perspective, little has been doneon exploring potential of integrating LCS
concept into developmental paths for Asia.
2Much of Asia is in a good position to realize
low-carbon development (?)•••••

Low carbon technologies already available
International collaboration to live in spaceship “Earth”
Co-benefit of pollution reduction
LCS needs leap-frog technologies
Free from past high-energy technology-system• Plenty well-educated human resource• Asian wisdom fit to sustainability• High energy price trend• But diversified pathway by countries?

1. Low carbon technologies already available
Reduction Potential :Effectiveness of Technology Transfer

3500

50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2Huge reduction
potential if Best
Available
Technology applied

3000

under 100 US$/t-CO2

GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO2 eq)

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)

2500
2000

20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2
0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2
X <= 0 US$/t-CO2

Year 2020

1500
1000
500



XRW

XAF

XLM

BRA

ARG

RUS

XE10

XE15

USA

CAN

NZL

AUS

XME

XSA

XSE

THA

KOR

IDN

IND

CHN

JPN

0China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there arelarge reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials inthe world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

Marginal Abatement Cost Curve in 2020
Comparison with LOW & HIGH discount rate case
200

Marginal abatement cost
(US$/t-CO2 eq)

Reduction cost
150
100
50

Reduction amount00-50-100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000 7000 8000 9000
Non-Annex I (High DR)
Annex I (High DR)
Technologies introduced Non-Annex I (Low DR)
Annex I (Low DR)
GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq)

Estimated mitigations under the case of 100 US$/t-CO2 marginal
abatement cost in 2020 are 8.7~11.3 GtCO2 eq in Global, 2.6~3.8 GtCO2
eq in Annex I and 6.0~7.5 GtCO2 eq in Non Annex I, respectively.

3. Co-benefit of pollution control
Energy saving could reduce air pollutants and improvehealth impact

BaU

BaU

PolicyPolicyGeographical distribution of PM10
emissions across China in 2020 (unit: ton)
Wan Yue/ Yan Hongwei

Ambient concentration of PM10
in urban areas of China in 20202008年太陽電池生産量国別シェア
スペイン
2%

インド
1%

マ ノルウェー
2%
レーシア フィリピン
2%
3%

その他
9%

China中国26%

4. LCS needs leapfrog technologies

アメリカ
6%

Taiwan

台湾
12%

ドイツ
19%

Ja 日本
Japan18%
pa１２
順位
n２００６
Japan 24.6%
China 22.0%

２００８

Germany
Production Share of Solar Cell

３
Germany 19.8%

Q セル［独］
10.4%

シャープ［日］9.7%

サンテック［中］8.8%China 26%

Germany 19%

Japan

Q セル［独］8%

ファーストソーラー サンテック［中］7%7%４USA 10.2%

18%
シャープ［日］7%New Energy competition : distributed energy

Germany

Solar Panel Capacity GrowthSpain
Japan
米国
USAガソリン->Gasoline ICEV

原油

ガソリンＨＶ

ガソリン車

ﾊﾞｲｵﾏｽ天然ガス
副生水素

燃料電池車（水素）

平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCEV平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCHEV

液体水素->FCEVHy. Aug

圧縮水素->FCEV

FC

液体水素->FCHEV

最小電気自動車

圧縮水素->FCHEV

バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCEV※ＨＶ：ハイブリッド車の省略形※電力：日本の平均電源構成※燃料電池車：回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収※水素：圧縮水素を仮定
原油天然ガス
石炭バイオマス電力
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCEV

LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCHEVLNG火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV

石油火力->圧縮水素->FCEV

燃料電池車（水素）

石油火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV

㻡㻜バイオマス発電->BEV

平均電源構成->BEV

石炭火力->BEVLNG火力->BEV

石油火力->BEV

燃料電池車（水素）液体水素->FCEV

液体水素->FCHEV

圧縮水素->FCEV

圧縮水素->FCHEVPD[メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV㻝㻜㻜

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV

Gasoline

燃料電池車(ﾒﾀﾉｰﾙ)

圧縮水素->FCEV

圧縮水素->FCHEV

メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV

メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV

燃料電池車（水素）液体水素->FCEV

液体水素->FCHEV

圧縮水素->FCEV

圧縮水素->FCHEV

メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV

メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV㻞㻡㻜

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV

液体水素->FCEV

液体水素->FCHEV

ディーゼルＨＶ

圧縮水素->FCEV

圧縮水素->FCHEV

ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCEV㻞㻜㻜ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCHEV

ディーゼル車ガソリン->Gasoline ICEHEV

軽油->Diesel ICEHEV

軽油->Diesel ICEV

Well to Wheel CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/km]
Well to Wheel CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/km]

Technology: Projected Car CO2Emission/km
PLQ最大Diesel

㻝㻡㻜EV㻜

電力

副生水素

Technologicalleap-fogging starts
now
Electric Car:Experiences inMobile Phone(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN
370km/h MAX.SPEED
Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.

From Toyota toPansonic?

No engine but only
motors in every wheel

PLATFORM by SIM-Drive

Let’s design
customized
Asian Eco-car

Body Panels

Body Frame

ChassisLighter,wider, andflexible design,when moveengine away

Beijing

北京1975 北京1984

北京1991 北京1997
東京1927 東京1967

Ｔｏｋｙｏ ＆ Ｏｓａｋａ

東京2001Seoul
ソウル1920 ソウル1960 ソウル2006

大阪1927

台北1920 台北2003

大阪1967大阪2001

Ｍａｎｉｌａマニラ2060 マニラ2000

Bangkok
バンコク1950

バンコク2000

Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities

From Kaneko: 2009 深圳1985

深圳1997深圳2005

100%

Modal share ofmotorized
private mode

＊San Francisco
Ｎｏｒｔｈ Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎ Ｐａｔｔｅｒｎ＊RomeEuropean Pattern
Most efficient pattern＊Beijing＊Manila＊Hong Kong

＊Munich＊Tokyodaa0%
50,000GDP/Capita (USD)

5.Free from past high-energy technology-system

Designing efficient Infrastructure
From IEA: 2008

How LCS can be mainstreamed in city development path ?

City management

Scale merit of accumulation:
Evolution

Dematerialization

Transportation
Information Tech.

Introduction ofnew energy

Financialactivities

Lock-ineffect
Smart growth

Retreat offactory

Expand of cityarea

Compact city

Relocation toabroad

Infrastructures
Saving energy
oin industry

Location offactory

Industrialization

ForwardeffectInvestment

Poverty and energy

Labor shift from rural area
The 1st Industry

The 2nd Industry

Backward effect

The 3rdIndustry

6．Leapfrog Possibility in Asia
Country

Domestic factor

External factor

IndustrialStructure

India: IT Industry

Education/humanresource

Soft tec. Globalization

EnergystructureJapan: Low energy
intensity

Technology
Rapid growth

Oil Crisis
Energy security

Urban
Structure

Singapore:transportation,water, housing,,
Tokyo: Public
transportation

Small land strong
leadership

Relationship with Malaysia

Distributedenergy

India: renewableenergy, Biomass
Brazil ：ethanol

Poor power grid
Investment, land area
Sugar cane, lack of Oil

Information

China: MobileRapid economic
growth, big land area,
Not enough com-grid

IT technology

New Energy
System?

?

Climate Issue

Agricuture

Low energy use

Self sufficiency

Energy price

Before auto-age
Rapid urbanization

Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energydepending technology track
Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity(energy/GDP)＊ Japan’s leap-frog
China？
India？

Possibility of Asian
countries’ catch-up– How can we facilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon
development?
– What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and nonmarket) that could facilitate those leap-floggings to low carbon
technologies?

19

GHG emissions per capita

Asian LCS scenarios study
DevelopedCountries

DevelopingCountries

High Energy
Locked-in TypeDevelopment

Leapfrogdevelopment

LowCarbonWorldModeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia

With High
Damage on
Economy andNatural SystemTime

We have just started new research project “Asian Low-Carbon Society
Scenario Development Study” (project leader: Mikiko Kainuma) during
FY2009-2013, funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ

20

Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies andPerspective

15th AIM International Workshop
22 February 2010, Tsukuba

Shuzo Nishioka

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Renewable Energy• Renewable energy
systems can be used as
stand alone or mini-gridbased on

再生可能エネルギー

再生可能エネルギーシステムは、以下に基づいて、単独で、又は小規模グリッドで利用できる。

• Needs assessment
ニーズ調査• Provision of wide
technology choice
技術の広範な選択オプションの提示• Facilitation of technicalback-up
技術的バックアップの確保• Provision of subsidised
financial system
補助金等の資金援助の提供• Support existing
cooperatives or promote
new ones
既存の協力関係の支援、又は新たな関係の促進