1AIM International Workshop Feb. 2010NIES, Tsukuba, JapanDevelopment of CO2 Emission Model at The Site Level and Its Application2010.02.20

Chan PARK, Dong-Kun LEE, Eun-young KIM
Seoul National UniversityTable of Contents

1.

Introduction

2.

Methodology

3.

Model application and result

4.

Conclusion and remarks

2

3

Ⅰ. Introduction

Introduction

4

BackgroundDue to crisis of climate change and low carbon green growth policy, many
local governments in Korea are making action plans to reduce CO2emission
Low carbon development strategy is one of the ongoing issues to mitigate
CO2 emission that include the influence of land use change, influx ofpopulation, and any other influence factors in development site level
However, many development plans have limitations in terms of estimating
development impact on CO2 emission and potential reduction of CO2

As a result, It causes difficulties in reinforcing possibilities of climatechange policy, analyzing CO2 emission reduction method, and finding thebest counterparts to minimize the impact of climate changeIntroduction
The aim of this study
To develop estimation model of CO2 emission reflecting development
impact and potential reduction that contain introduction of newtechnology, life style change, and land use scenario

To verify model suitability at site level and review new plan’s
development impact on CO2 emission

56Ⅱ. Methodology

Methodology
Overview
CO2 emission by energy
consumptionHousehold, Commercial, IndustrialPotential CO2 reduction
Land use change, technology, life styleValidation
Previous study, model estimationApplication and Discussion
Gwachun city7

8Methodology
CO2 emission by energy consumption

AfterBefore
Map of Small Area
Statistics
Development site

The number ofhousehold by size offloor area
The number ofcommercial
companies/employee
The number ofindustrial
companies/employee

SelectSmall Area Statistics(Household, commercial, industry)

Select artificial area

Land cover map(2005)

Climate(Household, commercial, industry)

Energy consumption
unit

Energy consumption ofHousehold(by size of floor area)
Energy consumption ofCommercial/public(type of company)
Energy consumption ofIndustry sector(type of company)

Development plan

The number ofhousehold(size of floor area)(Regression)

Population
Plan(Type of business,scale)

Energy consumption
unitEmission Factor(Energy source)(Unit*EF*area)

CO2 emission
COM/PUB

Statistical Geographic Information Service(SGIS)The number ofindustrial
companies

Downscaling(scale, type)(Unit*EF*area)

HOU

The number ofcommercial
companies

CO2 emission
IND

HOU

COM/PUB

IND

9Methodology
Potential CO2 reduction

Land use change
Land cover map(2005)
Eco map(Stand age, type)
Biomass Data
(Korea ForestService)

Soil organiccarbon(30cm)

Soil OrganicCarbon(Before)
Vegetation
Biomass(Before)

Method(IPCC, KFRI)

Soil Organic Carbon(After)Technology, Life style
Developmentplan
Land use(2005)

Land use change

Scenario(greening)

Vegetation Biomass(After)Energy servicedemand(cooling, heating)

Development plan

The Level ofTechnology(Present)

Energy service
demand(Future)

EnergyConsumption

Assumption(Economy,life style, Servicedemand)

ESS Model

Potential CO2 reduction

The Level ofTechnology(Future)

10

Ⅲ. Modelapplication andresult

11Model application and result
Validation
There is a strong correlation between model estimation and previousstudy
This model will be more precise if some data is available in nationalstatistics database especially small business sector.
Previous study

Model estimation

12

Model application and result
Gwachun Knowledge based Town
Present :

- Monwon Dong, Galhyun Dong area
- Green belt areaDevelopment goal : - Research facilities and Household area
- Over 25% of Park and Green Area▼ Development Plan

▲ Present Condition
Type of Land use▲ Images
Present (Ratio(%))

Development Plan

Area(㎡)%

Area(㎡)%

Household82,121

6.4

294,380

23.0

Commercial/Public

5,316

0.4

84,858

6.7-

251,72219.8

IndustrialRoad/Parking lot

124,393

9.8

195,412

15.3

Forest160,368

12.6--

Agricultural Area

842,887

66.1

-

-

Pasture57,2194.5--

Park/Green area-

378,437

29.7

School--25,000

1.9

Etc

2,136

0.2

44,631

3.6

Total

1,274,440

100.0

1,274,440

100.0

13

Model application and result1) Household – Basic assumption
We calculated CO2 Emission of 342 houses in Study site
We set the number of households by following development plan
Currently, study area is rural area, but it will be changed as urban area.
So in this study we used two standards for each period for calculating
CO2 emissionTotal(Housing)Under 33㎡

33~66㎡

66~99㎡

99~132㎡

132~165㎡

Over 165㎡

Before(Small Area Statistics) 342

0

40

72

17918

33

After(Study Area)4,910

30

1,435

2,08872444319014Model application and result2) Commercial, Industrial – Basic assumption
There are 73 business facility in Gwachun City.
Individual business facilities excluded in this study.
Type and size of business after the development is the same as mentioned in city
development plan(other part has followed average ratio of Gwachun)Commercial/Industrial SectorsBeforeAfter(Study Site)Wholesale and retailing

18140Lodging and Restaurant

55220Communication1Financial and insurance15Real estate and leasing service30Business Service100Institutional1Education48Health and Social welfare5Recreation, Amusement100Individual Business0Electric, Water0Model application and result151) Household Sector
134.7 tC of CO2 is emitted per year before the development
4,946 tC of CO2 is emitted per year by 4,910 houses after the development

CO2 emission◀ BeforeAfter ▶

16Model application and result2) Commercial/Industrial Sector

27,576 tC of CO2 emission will increase because of development of Knowledge
based town
According to city development plan, 6,721 tC of CO2 will be increased per year

in education, commercial, business block.

boundaryApartment
Park
Greening area
Single story house
Road
Commercial
Public/Business
Parking lot
Industrial
SchoolCO2 emission◀ Before

After ▶

17

Model application and result
CO2 Emission Change (Energy)
39,045 Cton of CO2 Emission will increase if knowledge based town isCompleted(41% of Increase based on 2005)

It is more than 20 times of total reduction amount by forest and vegetation in Gwa-chun City
The portion of CO2 emission in household, commercial sector was 54.4%.
Since development of knowledge based town, CO2 emission in industrial sector will
be increased.

10% of total CO2 emission can be reduced by introducing high efficiency productStudy AreabeforeTotal AmountGwachun cityafterBefore**AfterReductionPotential(Study site)IncreaseRatio(%)179.6

39,244.0

92,387.7

131,451.1 41%

Industrial-27,576.2

1,635.7

29,211.9 1,685%Transportation*--20,573.7

20,573.7 -

179.6

11,667.870,178.3

81,665 .5

16%

Housing/Commertial/Institutial

* Co2 emission in transportation sector has been excluded in this study** previous study551.5

2,248.5

(Unit:TC)18

Model application and result
CO2 Emission Change (land use change)
CO2 emission on soil is the least in scenario 1. And forest will reduce
CO2 emission 126 tC/year
If forest areas are conserved, 208 tC will be reduced per year.

Absolute amount of CO2 reduction is less through carbon sink thantechnology advance or life style change
But, carbon sink is useful for local governments to implement climate
Policy because they can control land use change

Carbon Emission(Total)

Reduction Potential(1 year)ForestSoilForest

Total Reduction
Potential(30 Years)

Scenario 1

177.1

313.2
(105.4)126.1

3,292.7(3,500.5)

Scenario 2

1,457.1

313.2

74.0

449.7

(Unit: tC)19

Ⅳ. Conclusion andremarks

Conclusion and remarks

20

Conclusion
Gwachun city set a goal in 2009 to reduce 5% CO2 emission until 2015
CO2 emission can be reduced by life style change and technology
advance as well as carbon sink

But, when development happens it is impossible to reach reduction goalby just using CO2 emission reduction policies.
To make low carbon city, there should be holistic approach in city level

Policy should be shifted from the expansion of urban areas for thestimulation of economic growth to the increase of available land throughthe renewal of existing urban areas and increasing the efficiency of
space to reduce CO2 emission
Taking into account social and economical constraints, afforestation
program is becoming a more attractive mitigation option to decision
makersConclusion and remarks

21Remarks
This method can be used for supporting decision making process formaking development plan
If development plan is not detail, there should be some assumption toestimating future emission. It may cause uncertainty in calculation of
CO2 emission
This model is useful if it adds transportation sector, technology, life
style change, natural carbon sink for further study

Suggestion
The success of reduction target is only possible with strong and effective
implementation at national and local level

Thank you for yourattention!