The 28th AIM International Workshop
September 13-14, 2022
National Institute for Environmental Studies (Online)

ACHIEVING NET ZERO CO2 EMISSIONS INNEPAL: THE ROLE OF CLEAN ENERGY OPTIONSRam M. Shrestha1
Bijay B. Pradhan2
Bundit Limmeechokchai2
1 Institute for Integrated Development Studies, Nepal

2Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Thailand

OUTLINE

1. Nepal’s Long-term Strategy for Net Zero CO2Emissions
2. Nepal’s Energy Resources
3. Scenario Description
4. Analysis of BAU and NZE Scenarios
5. Final Remarks and Future WorksNEPAL’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY (LTS) FORNET ZERO CO2 EMISSIONSWAM scenario
Reference scenario

Source: GoN (2021), Nepal's Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions

CO2 EMISSION PATHWAY OF ENERGY USING SECTORS UNDER
THE ALTERNATIVE MEASURES (WAM) SCENARIO OF LTS
14MtCO2

1210

12.4

12.0

8

11.0

10.2

6

9.1

420
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

6.5

2045

1.7

2050

Source: GoN (2021), Nepal's Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions

SCENARIOS DESCRIPTIONBAU• Energy and technology usage follow historical pattern
NZE_ELY (i.e., NZE without H2)• CO2 emission pathway in the energy sector follows LTS trend• Electrification in all possible end-uses• No hydrogen-based technologies
NZE_ELY+H2 (NZE with H2)• CO2 emissions pathway in the energy sector follows LTS trend• Electrification in all possbile end-uses• Hydrogen based technologies to reduce emissions from hard-to-abate sectors from 2035 onwards

NEPAL’S CLEAN ENERGY RESOURCES ARE HIGHLY
UNDERUTILIZEDTWh

MW

Capacity utilized(MW)-83,0002,081

Solarb

66-98

-

54

Windc-

3000

NAOil reservenil-

Coal reserve

nil-Natural gas reservenil-

Hydropowera

Shrestha(1966), bADB (2021), cAEPC(2008)

HARD-TO-ABATE SECTORS IN NEPAL• Long-distance road transport• Aviation• Cement industry

SCENARIOS ASSUMPTIONSBusiness-as-usual
Electric-transport

NZE_ELY

NZE_ELY+H2

LDVs

-

Full

Full

HDVs

-

Partial

Full

Full

Full-

-

Full-

-

Full

Aviation--

PartialCement---Brick-Full

Full

Paper and pulp

-

Full

Full-

Full

Full

Hydrogen-based fuel and technologies Cementin industry--Partial

Electrification in residential andcommercial

-

Full

Full

Biofuels in transportAllHydrogen-based fuel and technologies LDVsin transport
HDVs
Electrification in industry

Iron & steel
Others (Process heat)

All heating applications

Analysis of BAU andNZE Scenarios

GHG EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY USING SECTORS IN BAU
80

Agriculture70
MtCO₂e

60

Power

50

Industry

40

Transport

30

Commercial

201002015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Residential• GHG emissions in BAU would increase by 3 times during 2020-2050• Industry and transport sectors would be the two highest emitting sectors by 2050

CO2 AND GHG EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY USING SECTORSIN BAU AND NZE SCENARIOS
CO2 emissions
60

NZE_ELY

80

BAU

604030NZE_ELY

NZE_ELY+H250403020201002015

BAU70

MtCO2eMtCO250

NZE_ELY+H2GHG Emissions

102020

2025

2030

2035

2040

20452050

02015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

20452050

CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY SECTOR IN NZE SCENARIOS

MtCO25040302010

NZE_ELY

60

Agriculture
PowerIndustry

Residential
Transport

BAU (Emissions)NZE (Emissions)
02015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
• Reduction in CO2 emissions in NZE_ELY• 90% (48.4 MtCO2 in 2050)• 63% in cumulative CO2 emission (560 MtCO2)
during 2020-2050• GHG emissions redution in 2050 by 77%

NZE_ELY+H250Commercial
MtCO2604030201002015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• Reduction in CO2 emissions in NZE_ELY+H2• 97% (52.3 MtCO2 in 2050)• 66% (573.6 MtCO2) during 2020-2050• GHG emissions redution in 2050 by 82%

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TRANSPORT IN NZE_ELY+H2
Heavy-duty FCEVvehicles emerge(2035)

100% electrification ofpassenger cars and 2Ws(2045)

Bio-diesel blend indiesel ICE (2033)
Penetration ofheavy-duty
electric vehicles(2030)

3.0
2.5

Mtoe

Hydrogen-based aviation(50% fuel share) (2045)

Hydrogen

2.0

Electricity

1.5

Petroleum

1.0
0.50.0

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

BiofuelHydro-RoR

Other renewables

Thermal

47.2

41.9

29.7

19.1 19.4
14.7

2030

2040

2050

NZE_ELY+H2

NZE_ELY+H2

NZE_ELY

2020

BAU

2015

NZE_ELY+H2

1.1

8.6

NZE_ELY

0.8

8.3

BAU

6.4

NZE_ELY

5045
403530252015
105-

Hydro-StorageBAUGWIMPLICATION FOR POWER GENERATION• Installed capacity would reach 29 GW in BAU, 42 GW in NZE_ELY and 47 GW in NZE_ELY+H2 by 2050

BAU2030

2040

2045

2050

NZE_ELY+H2

NZE_ELY+H2

NZE_ELY+H2• Electricity generation increases by 12 folds during 2020-2050 in BAU• In 2045, electricity generation would increase by• 29% in NZE_ELY and 35% in NZE_ELY+H2• In 2050, electricity generation would increase by• 35% in NZE_ELY and 52% in NZE_ELY+H2

NZE_ELYBAU2020

ThermalNZE_ELY

BAU2015NZE_ELY

Other renewables

NZE_ELY+H2180160
14012010080604020-

Hydro RoRNZE_ELY

Hydro Storage

BAUTWhIMPLICATION FOR POWER GENERATION

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

0.07

2036

0.16
2040

0.82
2045

1.36

2050

Electrolyzer capacity (GW)

Hydrogen consumption(Mtoe)

HYDROGEN REQUIREMENT IN NZE_ELY+H25432
100.22

2036

0.48
2040

• Hydrogen would be mainly used in the transport sector• In cement industry, hydrogen would be used to meet heat demand partially.

2.4520454.05

2050

Water demand (million m3)

FRESH WATER DEMAND FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION IN
NZE_ELY+H25432100.227

2036

0.50
2040

2.58
2045

4.27

2050

FINAL REMARKS AND FUTURE RESEARCH• The levels of electrification and green hydrogen needed in this presentation are related
to only CO2 emission mitigation from energy using sectors.
• If non-CO2 mitigations are considered, higher level of electrification and hydrogen use
in the industry sector would be necessary.
• Larger CO2 emission reduction needed after 2045 will be highly dependent on
development of hydrogen-based technologies, in particular, electrolyzers andtechnologies like FCEV, hydrogen based turbines, boilers, etc.
• The sustainability of NZE beyond 2045 will also depend on the level of carbon
sequestration from LULUCF. The level of future sequestration presented in LTS seems
controversial (difficult to understand!).
• Most importantly, the level of investment in infrastructure development for transition toelectrification and hydrogen scenario as well as other additional costs can be verysignificant. Therefore a major question remains: if the investment requirements andother costs of meeting the NZE target in 2045 will be affordable to a country likeNepal?

THANK YOU