Passenger Transportation Model
Application to Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project

Tomoki Ehara (MHIR)
2006.2.20
The 11th AIM International Workshop

1. Background• Passenger transportation is one of the key factor interms of the energy consumption• Passenger transportation is dependent on thepopulation (density) and structure of the city.
• The impact of population distribution on future
passenger transportation need to be simulated.

2. General Description•Closely•Closelyrelated
relatedto
toPopulation
PopulationDynamic
DynamicModelModel•Calculation•CalculationProgram
Program:MS-Access(tentative):MS-Access(tentative)

GAMS(future)
GAMS(future)•Input•Inputfrom:from:Population
PopulationDynamic
DynamicModel
Model(Population(Populationbybylanduse)
landuse)CGE
CGEEconomic
EconomicModel
Model(Employment(Employmentrate)
rate)•Output:•Output:Passenger
PassengerTransportation
Transportationby
bymodemode(person-km)(person-km)•Some•SomeCoefficients
Coefficientsneedneedtotobe
beassumed
assumedoutside
outsidethe
themodelmodel•Two•Twocomponents:
components:Intra-regional/Inter
Intra-regional/Interregional
regionaltransportationtransportation

3. Definition of the terms●Intra-regional Transport●Inter-regional Transport[Purposes]･Commute (to work)･Commute (to School)･Return (to home)･Commercial･Private (ex. shopping)･Sightseeing & Leisure[Purpose]･Commercial (Business trip)･Sightseeing (Leisure)･Private (Homecoming)*Note:Commuting is excluded:Trip within the daily living area

[Mode]･Passenger cars
･Railways･Buses･Walk and bike

:Trip over the daily living area

[Mode]･Aviation (Airplane)･Railways (Train)･Maritime (Ship)･Buses･Passenger cars

Population by Landuse

License rate

Population
Dynamic Model

Employment rate

CGE EconomicModel

Population

PopulationTrip Generation[trip/person]

Trip Generation[trip/person]

Modal Share[%]Modal Share[%]Avr. Trip distance[km/trip]

Avr. Trip distance[km/trip]Transportation demand[person-km]

地域間Transportation
demand
旅客交通需要[person-km]

Net-Total
Conversion ratio：Data flow
Transportation demand

Intra-regional Transportation：Endogenous variable：Exogenous variable

Inter-regional Transportation

4. Data Sources
DataSourcea) License rate

Past record: National Police Agency
Future estimation: MLITb) Employment rate

Past record: Statistics Bureauc) Inter*/Intra** regional
Transportation Coef.

*MLIT PT survey data:90, 95, 00(Arterious Transportation Survey)>Trip Generation>Modal Share>Avr. Trip distance**MLIT PT survey data:87, 92, 99(National Urban PT Survey)d)Net-Total Conversion ratio

Estimated from Total demand (e) andPT data summatione)Total Demand

Domestic Transportation Statistics
Handbook (MLIT)

MLIT: Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport

4. Output(1)(Intra-area transportation demand by purpose: mil.person-km)
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

WorkSchool
Commercial
ReturnPrivate
Sightseeing

400,000

200,000
02000 2005 20102015

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

4. Output(2)(Intra-area transportation demand by landuse: mil.person-km)
1,200,000

1,000,000

Other:Agl
Other: Urb
Other: Mnt
LCC
LCU: Agl
LCU: Urb
LCU: Mnt
TMU: Agl
TMU: Urb
TMU: Mnt

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

*TMUC: Three Major Urban Commuting Area, which include Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya metropolitan*LCU: Local Central Metropolitan*LCC: Local Core City

4. Output(3)(Inter-area transportation demand by mode: mil.person-km)
４00,000
350,000
300,000

Railway
Maritime
Pass. Car
Aviation
Buses250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

4. Output(4)(Total transportation demand by mode: mil.person-km)
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000

Walk&Bike
Railway
Maritime
Pass. Car
Aviation
Buses

800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050