14th AIM International Workshop, NIES

A Low Carbon Society for Korea

2009. 02. 15

Chan PARK, Dong Kun LEE, Eun Young KIM ,Sun Young SUNG
Seoul National University
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> Index <1. Strategies toward Low Carbon Society for Korea
2. Application LCS Scenario in Backcasting Model
3. Estimation of Carbon sequestration under different
land-use scenarios
4. Conclusion Remarks

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Strategies toward a Low Carbon
Society for Korea

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Low Carbon, Green Growth••••

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A Low-carbon development paradigm contributes to the reductionof GHG emissions, which aims for decoupling GHG emissions andair pollutants with economic development. It means not only
maximize efficient use of natural resources but also minimize
environmental impacts. It is based on environmental sustainability
and Ecological efficiency (EE).
The Korean government will make a low-consumption society by
drastic increase of energy efficiency by 2030.
The Korean government focused more on developing related
policies for end-use sectors such as residential and commercialsector.
The Korean government will invest in R&D areas, especially inenvironmental-friendly technologies such as renewable tech., andpromotion of green energy industry to make ‘Green-powerfulcountry’Energy Situation in Korea••

Import Dependence : 97%
Fossil fuel : 83%(unit: billion $)140
131.1 (Estimated value)
120
100

95
85.6

80
66.7

60

Energy Income
Trade balance

49.6
40
29.40
20

23.10

16.00

14.60

0

△1.90 (Estimated value)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

-20

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Source : National Energy Plan, Ministry of Know ledge and Economy(’08)

Energy Mix (Power Sector)

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Source : National Energy Plan, Ministry of Know ledge and Economy(’08)

Policy for Low Carbon Society
Lowering Energy Consumption••

Energy Intensity : 0.341(2007) -> 0.185(2030)
Enhancing the national capacity for climate adaptation

Carbon Free Energy Source••

Oil dependency : 43.4%(2007) -> 33%(2030)
Renewable energy : 2.4%(2007) -> 11%(2030)

Green Energy Technology•

Technology : 60%(2007) -> World Best(2030)

Energy Independence•

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Rate : 4.2%(2007) -> 40%(2030)

Source : National Energy Plan, Ministry of Know ledge and Economy(’08)

Policy for Low Carbon Society(unit: Mtoe)
600
553.2
500

46% Energy UseReduction

400342.8300.4300TechnologyEfficiency(07)

240.5
200

Appling Efficiency
Improvement
Rate('98~'06)

100Technology
Efficiency Target02007

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2020

2030

Source : National Energy Plan, Ministry of Know ledge and Economy(’08)

Sectional Action Plan and Roadmap
Industrial Sector•••••Promoting programs which improve energy efficiency
Reinforcing energy demand side management
Introducing fortified NA (Negotiated Agreement)
Introducing emission trading system
Investing in R & D to improve the efficiency of energy intensive devices such as
HD TV, LCD monitor, green car, and efficient motor

Transportation Sector
••
•
•
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Minimization of trip distance for commuting by intensive land use
Modal shift from cars to mass transit systems (buses, railways, LRTs)
Infrastructure development for foot and bike passengers (sidewalk, bikeway,cycle parking)Diffusion of motor drive cars such as electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles

Sectional Action Plan and Roadmap
Residential & Commercial Sector•••••

Reinforcing the tight standards for insulation which is equivalent to those ofdeveloped countries
Utilizing passive house or carbon-neutral house
Appling green IT technology to improve the energy efficiency of buildings
Distributing LED and high efficiency products to reduce energy demand in lighting
Creating and expanding proper markets of such devices, providing competitivemarket conditions by implementing such high efficient lighting

Power Generation Sector••
•••
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Expanding renewable energy sources with proper financial incentives such as RPA
Expanding nuclear power generation
Exporting Korean style of nuclear reactors to other developing countries
Increasing long term contract of energy resources such as natural gas or crude oilwith proper energy stocks and filingInvesting and developing joint programs on advanced technology such as CCS

Role of Each Stakeholder

Stakeholders

11/25RolesPeople-Reducing energy consumption-Volunteering to low-carbon, eco-friendly life style.

NGOs-Raising public awareness about climate change-Encouraging and Introducing various activities for low-carbon society-Monitoring production of carbon

Private Sectors-Volunteer campaign for reducing GHG and wastes.
-Promoting development and application of clean technology-Leading CO2 emission reduction through low-carbon product-Establishing low-carbon business modelsLocalgovernments-Collecting local GHG emission data
-Making comprehensive plans and strategies for local governments-Shifting urban system to more environmental friendly-Designing sustainable urban transport systems

Centralgovernment-Providing visions and plans for a low carbon society-Enhancing the national capacity for climate adaptation-Developing financial incentives and facilities

Application LCS Scenario in
Backcasting Model

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Modeling Framework
Social-economic scenarios

Base Year: 2005

Target Year : 2050

Projection service volumeby sector
Estimation of Future
Devices Share(AIM-KOREA : Residential,Commercial, Transportation)

Energy Snap Shot Tool
Action and Road Map

Backcating Modeling

Potential Reduction of CO2
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Estimated socio-economic indicators

2005

2050

2050/2005

GDP (2005 = 1)

1

4.42

4.42

Population(‘000)

48,13842,3430.87

Household(‘000)

15,971

18,330

1.15

Average family members

2.89

2.21

0.76

Floor space for Residential

20.2

40

1.98

Energy consumption per floor areafor energy service (100 in 2005)

100151

1.51

Passenger transportdemand (mil p-km)

275,441

345,000

1.25

Freight transportdemand (mil t-km)

178,745352,000

1.96

Urbanization rate

80.8%

93.0%

1.15

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Basic Assumptions•Future demand for energy service will increase••

The energy efficiency will reach to the Japanese level in 2030.
Economic methods such as levy on carbon tax and emissions
trading are not included.

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CO2 Emissions

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Expected CO2 Reductions
Actions

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Expected CO2Reductions

1Low Carbon and Green Buildings

17.89 MtC

2Green IT

1.40 MtC

3

Green traffic transportation system

12.89 MtC

4Expand Public Transportation and build pedestrian friendly passage

5Develop Low-Carbon technology in industrial sector and VA

22.36 MtC

6

Supply renewable energy

24.44 MtC

7

Expansion of low-carbon energy source and introducing CCS

8Energy labeling9

Training low-carbon specialist and Governance

Cross-sectional

Breakdown of Emissions reduction potential(unit: MtC)

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Estimation of Carbon sequestration
under different land-use scenarios

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Methods
Land Use Change Scenario
SRES Scenario

Land Use Change Modeling(1)Correlation Analysis & MLP

Land Use Change Modeling(2)Prediction and Allocation

Analysis of Potential Reduction
Total Stock Change

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Result of Land Use Change
Base Year: 2005

Target Year : 2030

<Present>

21/25<A1 Scenario><B2 Scenario>

Potential Reduction of CO2•

From 12.42 to 14.07 MtC will be reduced annually by terrestrial. This is 8.3%
percent of 2005 CO2 emissions in Korea.

•This means from 323 million to 364 million dollars in economic efficiency per year
(1tC : 17EUR).

•Potential reductions of CO2 emissions from natural land cover will able to bring
860 million dollars of economic profits during 25 years.
25 years

B2 Scenario(MtC)

Forest Biomass Contents (▲(▲t)

330.2

337,0

Reforestration

22.4

26.6

Deforestation

-34.6

-31.5

Remain Biomass

-7.7

-5.7

Reduction level of CO2 in soil

44.0

25.5

CO2 Emissions caused by LUC

-42.3

-11.7

Net change of CO2 caused by LUC

-19.8

14.9

310.5(12.4)

352.0(14.0)

Sink

Emission

Total (1 year)
year)
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A1 Scenario(MtC)
MtC)

Conclusion

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Conclusion Remarks
To achieve a target of 30-40% reduction in CO2 emission,•CCS and combined cycle technology in power generation sector would play amajor role.

•The efficiency improvement can lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions.

•Conservation of natural carbon sinks is necessary for LCS even if changeable
amount of potential reduction is little.

•The government should play a leading role in promoting a common vision
towards LCS at the earliest stage, enforcing comprehensive measures for socialand technological innovation, implementing strong measures to actualize thispotential reduction.

A ‘Low-carbon, Green Growth’ paradigm contributes to thereduction of GHG emissions

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Thank you for your attention

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