Systematic conservation planning for conserving
amphibians considering bioenergy potential andclimate change
Yongwon Mo1, Haruka Ohashi2, Whenchao Wu3, Tomoko Hasegawa4 and Yasuaki Hijioka3, Dong Kun Lee5, Kiyoshi Takahashi3, Tetsuya Matsui2
1) Yeungnam Univ., South Korea, 2) FFPRI, Japan, 3) NIES, Japan, 4) Ritsumeikan Univ., Japan, 5) Seoul National University, South Korea

Main Conclusions
 Since the distribution of potential habitats of amphibians and high bioenergy potentials is similar, it is necessary to consider the conflict between the twofactors when we establish the conservation planning against climate change.
 In addition, to conserve biodiversity it is not enough to just predicting changes in the distribution of species due to climate change. It is necessary toidentify conservation priority areas, taking into account the secondary impacts of climate change and the impact of efforts to respond to climate change.

Objectives
 Prioritizing areas is the one of the crucial parts in systematic conservation planning  In order to select a conservation priority in consideration of future climate change, it(SCP) because it enables effective and efficient conservation implementations tois necessary to consider not only climate change but also response to climate
protect biodiversity or ecosystems.
change or secondary effects.
 There are several factors that need to be taken into account for future biodiversity
conservation. The biggest impact among them is climate change. Increases intemperature and extreme weather events due to climate change cause the species
to migrate from their current habitat. In addition, expansion of bioenergy production,an effort to mitigate climate change, could be another threat to habitats.

 Objective: Finding priority areas for conservation of Amphibians, taking
into account areas where there is a conflict between amphibian distributionchange and bioenergy potential from climate change.

Methods
 Input data

GCM

SSP 1 - 5

 Complete
Research Flow Marxan

AIM/CGE
Regional Land-use

Bioenergy potential (Wu et al., 2019) Potential habitats (Ohashi)
AIM/PLUM

Potential habitats fo Amphibians (n=533)

Bioenergy potential

Present 2010ySpecies
Distribution
ModelWorldClim

Lan-use map

Potential Habitat

Bioenergy Potential

Bioenergy

Objective function
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
= 𝑆𝑃𝐹 σ Conservation Fail Penalty + σ Total Bioenergy Potential (+ BLM σ Boundary length)••••

Penalty threshold : 30% of potential habitats for each species
SPF : 1000,000
Cost : Bioenergy potential * 1000,000
BLM : 0Finding Conservation Areas considering potential bioenergy
Setting Conservation Targets
Minimum (17%)

IUCN Degree

Change of potential habitat

Making input data for MARXAN

Future 2050y
GCM : GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR
MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M
Resolution : 0.5 degreesMarxan running

Deriving 100,000 solutions X 100times

Summary results

Accumulation of best solutions

MARXAN (finding robust solutions by sensitivity analysis)
Spatial Conservation Plans for considering two different SDG GoalsResults In Latin America and South Africa, bioenergy potential were higher than the other region as well as potential
habitat of amphibians was widly distributed. Potential habitat also were many in South Asia and Australia, a partof North America.
 In 2010, Conservation Priorities were moderately important in North America and Central Asia, where bioenergy
were not high. In Latin America and Africa, many regions of high importance were selected despite of highbioenergy potential.

Conservation Priority (Present 2010y)

 In the future, even though by thescenarios the priorities were varied
slightly, but it was higher in North
America, Africa, and Central Asia.

GFDL-CM3

HadGem2-ES

IPSL-CM5A-LR

MICRO-ESM-CHEM

NorESM1-M

Conservation Priority (Future 2050y)

Discussions
 The amphibian distribution was similar to that of the bioenergy
potential, so it was confirmed that there was a conflict between
each other when selecting conservation priorities. It would becaused of the amphibians habitat preference (in or aroundcropland).
 Considering climate change, for the conservation ofamphibians worldwide, it is important to establish conservationplans in Africa region.

 If we consider not only climate change, but also socioeconomic changes such as SSP scenarios and land-use
changes, we would be possible to derive more realistic
conservation plans.

Contact : csmo12@yu.ac.kr
webzin12@gmail.com