The 15th AIM International Workshop

Estimation of Global Cement Demand

Reina Kawase
Kyoto University
20-22, February 2010
At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies,Tsukuba, Japan1

Introduction of ResearchMaterial Stock and Flow Model (MSFM)
 Material : energy intensity material (Steel and Cement)
 Focus on• Material demand with considering goods demand• Goods demand based on goods stock in the society

Macro Economic Model Basic econometric model To estimate the input variables for MSFM
• Each country(35 regions): GDP, Investment• World: Balance of Import and Export (Goods and Money)
2

Contents
1. Framework of Material Stock and Flow Model/CEM
Model Description
Model Structure
Current version ; MSFM/CEM
2. Results of MSFM/CEM

3

Description of MSFM/CEM 1
Final demands goods
Buildings
Dwelling, Commercial
Dwelling Type : Detached house, Apartment
Construction material:
Wood
Steel Reinforced Concrete
Concrete Block
Traditional Materials &Other

Wood
Masonry or cement
Traditional materials & Other

Civil engineering structures
Road, Railway, Dam, Airport, Harbor,
Water supply and sewerage, Other

1 category4Description of MSFM/CEM 2County classification:35 regions
Code NameJPN ： JapanCHN ： China
IND ： India
IDN ： Indonesia
KOR ： Korea
THA ： Thailand
MYS ： Malaysia
VNM ： Viet Nam
TWN ： Taiwan
SGP ： Singapore
PHL ： Philippines
XSE ： Other South-east Asia
XSA ： Other South Asia

Code Name
Code NameXEA ： Other East Asia
ZAF ： South Africa
XCS ： Central Asia
XAF ： Other Africa
XME ： Middle East
RUS ： Russia
XLM ： Other Latin America
MEX ： Mexico
CAN ： Canada
ARG ： Argentine
USA ： USA
BRA ： Brazil
XE15 ： EU-15
AUS ： Australia
XE10 ： EU-10
NZL ： New Zealand
XE2 ： EU-2
XOC ： Other oceania
TUR ： Turkey
XENI ： Other Europe
XEWI ： Other Western Europe in Annex I
XEEI ： Other Eastern Europe in Annex I

Current progress: 21 regions--finished. 14 regions--under construction

Time periods: 1900 – 2050

(1960-2030)

5

Material Stock and Flow Model
Population,
Household Model

Transport Model

Stock of final demand goods

Macro Economic Model

Demand of final demand goods

Goods demand module
Material density
material weight
included in goods

Material cycle module

Material demands
Material production

Material Stock and Flow Model

6

Goods Demand Module: BuildingLabor ofIND&SER

Value added of
IND&SER Sector

Household

Dwelling stock
Household size
GDP／HOU = Dwelling ratio*Household

Value added /Labor of IND&SER

Urbanshare

Commercial floor
Area / labor

Construction
materialshare

Dwelling ratio

Dwelling priceindex

Type share

Commercial
FA stockFloor area /Dwelling

Demand ofcommercial FA

Depletion rate

Demand of commercial FA（construction material）

Construction
material
share

Building demand

Dwellingstock

Dwelling FA stock

Demand of dwelling FA

Exogenous
Endogenous
FA: floor area

Demand of dwelling FA（construction material）
7

Goods Demand Module: BuildingLabor of
IND&SER

Value added of
IND&SER
Dwelling Sectorratio

Dwelling ratio

X1= f (X1 , X2, X3, X4)

Household size

GDP／HOU

Value added /Labor of IND&SER

Commercial
floorarea / dwelling
Floor
Area / labor

Urban
share

X2

Household

X3

Dwelling price
X4
index
Type share X5

Dwellingstock= f (X1, X2, X5)

Construction
material
share

Commercial
FA stockFloor area /Dwelling

Demand ofcommercial FA

Depletion rate

Demand of commercial FA（construction material）

Construction
materialshare

Building demand

Dwelling FA stock

Demand of dwelling FA

Demand of dwelling FA（construction material）

Exogenous
Endogenous

FA: floor area
8

Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.1
Road length/ Land Area

Road rate
Trafficvolume(Car)

Railway rate

AirportTrafficvolume(Plane)

Trafficvolume(Train)

LandareaRoad Length

Dam

HarborTrafficvolume(Ship)

Railway Length
Exogenous

Depletion
rate

Endogenous

Road cons.
Paved rate
Paved Road
Construction

RailwayCons.

Production of Civil engineering structure

Damcons.

Airportcons.

Harborcons.
9

Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.2
POPGDP/POPAccess rate
to safe water

Access rate
to sanitary facility

Population with safe waterand sanitation facility

Urban
share

Access rate
to electricity
Other CVL
service
Exogenous

Safe waterand sanitation facility

Endogenous
Depletion
rate
Safe water and sanitation
facility construction
Production of Civil engineering structure

Other CVL service
construction

10Material Cycle Module
Population,
Household Model

Transport Model

Stock of final demand goods

Macro Economic Model

Goods demand module

Demand of final demand goods

Goods demand module

Civil Engineering
structures construction

Material density
material weight
included in goods

Material cycle module

Material demands

Building construction

Material production

Material Stock and Flow Model

Goods material density(ton/unit)

Exogenous
Endogenous
Depletion rate

Cement demand[goods]（ton）

Waste generation
rate

Material stock [ goods](ton)Material production [ goods](ton)Material stock(ton)

Material production(ton)

Production
material density(ton/unit)

11

Data
Variables
GDP/CAP
GDP/HOU
Value add
Population
Urban POP share
Access to water and sanitation
Railway Length
Labor
HouseholdHousehold size
Dwelling type share
Commercial floor area per Labor
Dwelling floor area per unit
Construction share
Depletion rate
Process scap rate
Road length
Air port-with paved runways
Dam

Literature

Author/InstituteWorld Development IndicaterWorld BankWorld Development Indicater
Yearbook of labour statistics

World BankILO

GMID

Euromonitor

YB of construction statistics

UN

Book of the Year

BRITANNICA

Waste management fund report
Dahlström(2004)
World Road Statistics
Fact Book
World Register of Dams

Daigo. et al(2006)
PSI
IRF
CIA
ICOLD
12

Data Introduction
180

Un it e d St at e s
Isr ae l140

Un it e d St at e s

Gr e e c e

120

So u t h Afr ic aT u r ke y

De n m ar k
No r way

Slo ve n ia

100

It alyRo m an ia

Ko r e a, So u t h
Po r t u gal
SloCvakia
rCoze
at ciah Re pu blicSlo ve n ia
Bu lgar ia
C hiaile
In do n eLitsiah u an
Ko r e a, So u t hPo
vialan dn euLatzu
BeVelars e la
Hu n gar y

80

60

Swit ze r lan d

Japan

Spain
It alyBe lgiuAu
m st r ia
Ge r m an y
Fr an c e
Fin lan d

Pe r u40

C h in a

Est o n ia

2000

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Road length per capita(km/cap)

Average floor area per dwelling (m2)16060000

GDP/HOU (USD)* Year is different
depending on countries.

5045
70000
4035302520151050

80000

0900001000003060

90Population density (cap / km2)

12013150

Parameter Adjustment Step

Regression analysis by using Japan’s data
→ estimate the parameters

Apply the formulation and parameters
to other countries

Inconsistency

LimitedReference Value

Adjust parameters ormodify the formulation

14

Model Performance (Japan):1
Regression analysis (1967-2003)
・ Dwelling ratio (dwelling stock / number of households)＝8.56＊10-7＊GDP/HOU－6.8＊10-2＊Household size＋2.0＊10-4＊Urban share+ 1.772

1.10

100.00Dwelling floor area per unit

Dwelling ratio

1.15

Reference
Estimation

1.05
1.00
0.95

R2＝0.994
0.90
0.85
1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

95.00

Reference
Estimation

90.00
85.00
80.00
75.00

R2＝0.996

70.00
65.00
60.00
1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

15

2003

Model Performance (Japan):2
Total constructionof floor are (8.9%)

Floor area construction (1000m2)

Estimation
300,000

Reference

250,000

200,000

Dwelling
construction(14.8%)

150,000

100,000

Commercial
construction(10.6%)

50,000

0
1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

16

Mean Absolute Percentage Error: about 10%

Model Performance (Japan):3
Total constructionof floor are300,000

Reference

Conversion ofBuilding demand to
BLD cement demand

250,000

200,000

Dwellingconstruction

150,000

100,000

Commercial
construction

50,000

01967

1972

1977

BLD Cement demand (Mil.ton)
建築物へのセメント投入量(100万トン)

Floor area construction (1000m2)

Estimation

1982

1987

401992

1997

2002

Mean Absolute
Percentage
Error:10%Estimation
需要量(日本セメント協会)
推計値
Reference

3530
25
20
15
10
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

17

Model Performance (Japan):4
CVL cement stock per capita＝1.46＊ 10-2 GDP/CAP+0.96

CVL cement stock per capita(ton/cap)

9Regression Analysis ; Japan(periods：1955-2005)

Estimation

8Reference

7654
3R2＝0.996

2101955

1980

2005
18

Results: Building Stock
12Dwelling
China

CommercialChina

10

Dwelling stock (bil. m2)

225( 億(bil.
m ) m2)
Commercial building stock

30

EU15

20

15India10

Other Asia

USA
アメリカ

5

Japan

0
1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

EU15
8India6

USA

Other Asia
4Japan

20
1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Dwelling stocks increase gradually,
19

Commercial building stocks are saturated in some developed countries

2030

18
30
16
BLD (Cement)
14
BLD (Wood ,RC)12CVL
10248642180
1915
1938
1961
1984

Cement stock per capita (ton/cap)
一人あたりセメントストック量(トン/人)(ton/cap)

Cement stock per capita by goods

Results : Cement Stock per Capita

Singapore
Malaysia
2007

2030

Korea

Japan

China

1260
1970

1985

2000

2015

2030
20

Results : Cement Demand

Cementdemand (Mil.ton)
セメント需要量(100万トン)

900
800

China

700
600
500
400

USA

EU15India

300
200
10001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
21USAIndia

セメ ント 需要量の内訳( １００万ト ン)

900800
土木CVL
700
BLD
建築600
500
400
300
200
10001980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
900
800
700600500
40030020010001980

900
800
土木
CVL
700
BLD
建築
600
500
400
300
20010001980
1990
900

Other Asia

2000

800

EU

土木
CVL
BLD
建築

セメ ント 需要量の内訳( １００万ト ン)

China

セメント需要量の内訳( １００万トン)

900
800
土木
CVL
700
BLD
建築
600
500
400
300
200
10001980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
900
800
CVL
土木
700
BLD
建築
600
500
400
300
200
10001980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

セメント需要量の内訳( １００万トン)

セメント需要量の内訳( １００万トン)

セメント需要量の内訳( １００万トン)

Results : Cement Demand

700
600

20102020

2030

Japan

土木
CVL
BLD
建築

500
400
300
200100

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

01980

1990200020102020

In Asian countries, the CVL cement demand is a key factor ofincrease of the CVL cement demand. In developed countries, CVL
22
and BLD cement demands are almost same.

2030

Thank you23