Navigating Towards 2035 Beautiful China: Assessing aLow-Carbon, Resilient, and Inclusive Energy Transition
Pathway through Multi-Model Analysis

Ji Gao1 (Presenter), Yu Liu2, Sheng Zhou3, Hongbo Duan4, Jianhui Cong5, Yingying Liu6, Lantian Zhang6, Yongsheng Wang7, Ying Qiu1, Bei Zhao1, Keyang Xue1
1. Environmental Defense Fund, Beijing, China; 2. Peking University; 3. Tsinghua University; 4. University of Chinese Academy of Science; 5. Shanxi University; 6. Beijing University of Technology; 7. Chinese Academy of Sciences Geography Science And Resource InstituteResultsMethods & Models

Gt CO2/yr14.00

240000

12.00

6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

REF-CGE-N

REF-CGE-P

REF-GCAM

CN-CGE-N

CN-CGE-P

CN-GCAM

China's Electricity Generation by Fuel Type

16000

Modeling China as a whole
Modeling China at the provincial level

CGE-P
GCAM

Modeling China as a whole

P-S-R

Modeling YRB at the provincial level

Input-Output Optimization Model
Water - Energy - Carbon
Assessment (WECA) model

Scenario
REF

Abbv.
REF

200000180000160000140000100000

2020

14000
12000
10000
8000
6000

02020

2025

2030

2035

Modeling Shaanxi Province

2045

Solar-CNBiomass-CN
Hydro-CN
Wind-CN-NU

Coal-CN
NG-CN
Nuclear-CN
Wind-CN

Modeling Shanxi Province

2040

2050

2055

Coal-CN-NU
NG-CN-NU
Nuclear-CN-NU

Note

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

EJ/yr
200

1000

2020

Conservative approach, based on the energy
resource endowment of Shaanxi, only achieve
the dual carbon goals

2040

2050

Production and supply of water

600
500

Production and supply ofelectricity and heat

400
Waste

300

100

2060

BAU
Lec

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060
Electrical machinery and equipment

Halve

In baseline scenarios, China's energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to plateau around 2030. Under carbon neutrality scenarios,
however, China can peak its emissions before 2030, even by 2025, witha peaking level below 11Gt.

Special equipment

Estimated Number of Renewable Energy Employment in Shanxi
Province in 2035 (Unit: ten thousand people)

Metal products

Relatively well-developed regions are less likely to experience GDPlosses, whereas less-developed regions, especially those that rely heavily on the fossil fuel industry and lack renewable resources for development, will experience the worst impacts.

Petroleum,coking products,andnuclear fuel processing products

6.16

Wood processing products
and furniture

Given the cost projections for CCUS technologies remain relatively
high compared to that of nuclear, lessening the need for CCS can leadto a reduction in total mitigation cost. A more ambitious deployment ofnuclear energy will mildly reduce the use of fossil fuels in theshort-term, prior to carbon peaking, and reduce demand for renewables after peaking.

Textile

3.56
3.05

3

2.54

250

0

10

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Fossil-CGE-N
Fossil-GCAM
Fossil-CGE-P

2045

2050

2055

Non-fossil-CGE-N
Non-fossil-GCAM
Non-fossil-CGE-P

2060

He
bei0%-4%

anFuji

BeijingWind power
generation

Photovoltaic
power generation

2017-7.5%

1.43

1.04

1.71

2Oil and gas extraction products

0.09

0.2

0.17

Biomass energy
generation

Geothermal
power generation

Hydrogen power
generation

2035-25%

Non metallic and other mineral mining
and processing products

2035-30%

Agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry
and fishing products and services
02035-35%

YRB 9 Provinces' Water-Energy-Food Integrated Assessment
Scores and Forecasts

20406080

9 Provinces of the YRB

0.7
Inner Mongolia

xi
Jiang

Shandong
HenanGansu

0.6

Shanxi

Hubeiliona
Nat

Ningxia

Qinghai

Hu
nanGu
an
gdonggjianXinYunnanShaanxi

Gansu

Qi
ng
haiigxan
Gun
ina
Haing
ngq
Choan
Sichu

CP：Carbon pricing
PR：Power investment adjustment
PMX：Mixed policy

0.31

0.89

2.34i
hu
An

8%
4%

0.53

0.74

2.01

0.8

Tia
njin

12%

1.67

Total-CGE-N
Total-CGE-P
Total-GCAM

China's Economic Impacts of Achieving Carbon Neutrality Across-regions

Guizhou

A holistic and integrated protection of water,energy, and food security

Conclusion

Instrumentation

GerGec4xia
ngi
N

WEF

700

4.4

Jilin

Both China and Shanxi province achievecarbon peaking in 2030

The absence of a comprehensive framework to assess inclusive
development in the context of energy transition：Inclusive development
involves various dimensions, such as economic, social, and environmental aspects. Energy transition impacts all these dimensions,making it complex to quantify and assess comprehensively. Addressingthese challenges requires a holistic and interdisciplinary approach,combining quantitative modeling with qualitative assessments andstakeholder engagement. It also involves ongoing monitoring andevaluation to adapt strategies and policies to ensure that energy
transition benefits a broader spectrum of society.

5ing
Liaon

Extremely high proportion of renewable energy
sources + achieves the dual carbon goals andthe non-fossil energy share target

Finance

Wholesale and retail5.28

oliaonger Mxi
Inn
anSh

Gec

Very high proportion of electricity
substitution technologies + achieves dual carbon
goals and the non-fossil energy share target

Water-Energy-Food
Synergy2030

6Zhejiang

Baseline scenario

Emissions halved compared to the 2030
peak by 2035

CP20607Jiangsu

Carbon neutrality + high nuclear penetration

Halve

Carbon Peaking

2050

Non-metallic mineral products

100Halve

Ger

2040

200

1500

Solar-CN-NU
Biomass-CN-NU
Hydro-CN-NU

Carbon neutrality by 2060

Lec

Great challenge renewable energy
policy

2030

800

2060

Baseline scenarios

Low challenge electricity - coal policy

Great challenge electricity - coal policy

2020

China's Primary Energy Mix Across Models

Shanghai

BAU400002060

Leasing and Business Services

50000

900

2000

Heilongjiang

Business-as-usual

CN-NU

2050

Water conservancy, environmentand
public facility management

60000

5500

4000

CP60
CP120
PRA
PRB
PMX

CarbonNeutrality-hiNU

CN

2040

Education

70000

6000

150

CarbonNeutrality

2030

The challenges in integrating energy, economic, and environmental
models: Gathering accurate and comprehensive data on energy
consumption, economic activities, and environmental factors can bechallenging. Energy systems, economic structures, and environmental
processes are highly complex and interconnected. Creating models
that capture these complexities in a coherent manner is a significant
challenge.

Accommodation and Catering

18000

CGE-N

80000

120000

2060

20000

NoteCulture, Sports, and Entertainment

Acidification potential (AP)

8.00

-2.00

90000

22000010.00

TWh/yrModel

The limitation of multi-model comparison: Different models havedifferent assumptions of the cost and deployment projections of energy
technologies. For example, models have different assumptions regarding cost and deployment projections for Carbon Capture, Utilisationand Storage（CCUS）, yielding unalike results in the share of fossil
fuels in primary energy consumption.

Number of Employed Persons by Departments in
Shanxi Province in 2035 (Unit: Ten thousand people)

Shannxi’s Water Assessment under Different Scenarios

Water withdrawals(million m3)

Yellow River Basin (YRB), known as China’s “energy basin” is an important ecologicalsecurity barrier for China, as well as a crucial area for human activities and economic
development. An inclusive energy transition will contribute to the sustainable
development of YRB. In addition, the energy transition would likely lead to the rapid
development of variable renewable energy (VRE). Hence, along with the study ofdecarbonization pathways in national and provincial levels, China Energy Modeling
Forum (CEMF) have also delved into the research of Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem
nexus management in YRB, and prioritized sectors such as the power sector.

China's CO2 Emission Pathways Across Models

Eutrophication potential (EP)

Ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, China updated its NDC targets and pledged to peakits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality
before 2060. It is crucial to understand the implications of achieving these two targets in such a short time frame on China’s emission pathways, socioeconomicdevelopment, energy transition, and inclusive development. Given China’s broadlandscape with regional differences in current development status and resource
abundance, it is also necessary to understand how each region would be
impacted by China’s low carbon transition.

Discussion

Freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity potential (FAETP)

Introduction

Shandong
Shaanxi

0.5

2020

2021

Gansu
Ningxia
Shanxi

2022

2023

Henan
Qinghai
Shaanxi

2024

Inner Mongolia
Shandong
Sichuan2025

SichuanHenan100120

For Shaanxi, improving CCUS technology and adopting corresponding
advanced water treatment techniques can help reduce the impact on
the water environment quality in major energy production cities. Eachscenario shows significant synergistic effects on reducing water consumption, while the degree of synergy on water environment quality isthe lowest. Considering the entire lifecycle, wind and solar energy haveclear environmental advantages in the energy transition process.
Large-scale applications will bring about significant synergies in energy
conservation, emissions reduction, and water pollution reduction.
The overall level of WEF development of YRB is relatively low, with a low
growth rate, and inter-provincial disparities are gradually widening. The
development level of the energy subsystem has improved significantly,
but provinces with high energy production, such as Shaanxi, Ningxia,
and Shanxi, have lower development levels in the energy subsystem
due to their substantial energy exports.
Shanxi Province will reach an employment figure of 150,000 in therenewable energy sector. However, the employment growth in therenewable energy industry struggles to compensate for the job gap in
the coal and power industries. Labor migration shows a trend ofmoving from north to south, from west to east, and from inland tocoastal areas. Resource-rich regions experience a significant outflowof labor, which may pose challenges to the transformation and development of these resource-dependent areas.