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P3

P17

P21
P37

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IATSS震災シンポ y.Hayashi

01
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IATSS震災シンポ y.Hayashi

2

IATSS震災シンポ y.Hayashi

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IATSS震災シンポ y.Hayashi

4

How to recognize the Great East
Japan Earthquake

5
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Changes in Natural and Social acceptability
Climate change /Diastrophism

Lowering birthrate /AgeingIncreasing Natural
Disaster Risk

Maturity and Recessionof economy

higherweakerMiss-match!

significant difficulty of near future generation
Smart Shrink

Resilient Society
Infrastructure

Urban and country side’sCompact-Connected

Redundancy

maintain and improve the level of QOL

6Ageing （Growth Maturity Shrink）
1900
1/1.4

1950

2000
1/2.042050
1/2.13

1/1.28GermanyJapan

1/1.481/2.14

1/1.04China

1/1.63

1/2.15

1/1.56Korea

1/1.24

1/2.55

1/1.20780910配付資料第3.indd 8

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Japanese cities
Non-coordinated build-up areas

Suburban shopping center with hugeparkings〈Background〉〈Phenomena〉〈Problem〉

Rapidly economic growth
Motorized lifestyle
Lack of spatial planningsystems

Urban sprawl
Dispersed build-up areas
Disordered landscapeEnvironmental load
Infrastructure
maintenance cost
Disaster risk
Declining QOL

shuttered street

Houses in high disaster risk areas

8

Requirement for
Resilient Land and Society

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Resilient land and society
Societal Objective

Characteristics
of Society
Strategy andmethodology

QOL Security
Resilience, Redundancy
Compact-Connected

Aging andfinancial difficulties

Smart Shrink

Balance of Selfhelp, Governmenthelp, Co-Assistance(Social Tsunami)

PeopleSociety’s choice
Platform ofsocialconsensus

External force ofdisaster(e.g. Tsunami)

Exchange of
wisdom /consensus
building

Preparedness
Awareness

infrastructure, land use, information
参考文献•武内和彦：自然と共生できる社会を目指してー震災復興と自然共生社会•林良嗣：レジリエントな国土と社会に向けたスマートシュリンクのすすめ、IATSS Review, Vol.36,No.2, 2011

10５）IATSS Ｒｅｖｉｅｗ 特集号■Vo.36,No.2 Oct.,2011＜論壇＞
大震災復興 三つのウエア

小口泰平＜特集／東日本大震災復興に向けた提言―安全・安心な交通社会を創る＞
・特集にあたって・自然と共生できる社会を目指して－震災復興と自然共生社会－

森本章倫
武内和彦

・非常時の交通・地域マネジメント －しなやかマネジメントを目指して－
・非常時の人間・社会セキュリティ－睡眠の確保と整備－
・都市の交通・環境インフラ復興に向けて・農山漁村地域の交通・環境インフラストラクチャーの復興
・危機管理・震災復興のための法・政策システム
・危機管理・震災復興に向けて－経済学の立場から
・国際社会に向けた情報発信

久保田 尚
林 良嗣
高橋正也
谷川 武
森本章倫
一ノ瀬友博
今井猛嘉
竹内健蔵
北村友人

・ラウンドアバウトの被災地復興への貢献

中村英樹
浜岡秀勝

・譲り合いの生活道路

久保田 尚
上野俊司
伊藤将司

・レジリエントな国土と社会に向けたスマートシュリンクのすすめ

林 良嗣

＜座談会＞
・東日本大震災復興：分野横断的な取り組みに向けて

石川幹子
森田 朗
吉村秀實
林 良嗣

11
10

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Three strategies
for resilient land and society Resilience Opposing/Adaptive infrastructure (Seewall in Taro, Iwate Pref.)※New wall: collapsed, Old wall: survived
 Infrastructure Alignment (Case of Sendai east motor way)

 Redundancy Failure of emergency mode (Route 43 at the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake) Lack of redundancy(Eastern Sendai Motorway) Compact-Connected Removal to high land (Case of Ofunato and Kamaishi)
 Regeneration of Social Connectivity (Shanghai)
12Strategy for resilient land andsociety（１） Resilience Countermeasure/resilient infrastructure (Seewall in Taro,
Iwate Pref.)※New wall: collapsed, Old wall: survived
 Infrastructure Alignment (Case of Sendai east motor way)

 Redundancy Failure of emergency mode (Route 43 at the Great Hanshin-Awaji
earthquake) Failure of redundancy(Express way network in Tohoku area)

 Compact-Connected Move to higher ground(Case of Ofunato and Kamaishi)
 Regeneration of social bonds(Shanghai)
13
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①Resilience

Was levee in Taro, Miyako resilient?
Old levee (avoid)

New levee(directly opposing)→broken

BeforeAfter
出典：国土交通省
東北地方整備局

14①Resilience

Eastern Sendai Motorway
played a second levee
Eastern Sendai
Motorway

Importance of infrastructure Alignment

出典：Google Earth15
120910配付資料第3.indd 1212.9.10 4:59:30 PM

Strategy for resilient land andsociety（2） Resilience Countermeasure/resilient infrastructure (coast levee in Taro,
Miyako, Iwate)※New levee: collapsed, Old levee: survive
 Importance of infrastructure arrangement planning(Case of Sendai
east motor way)

 Redundancy Failure of emergency mode (Route 43 at the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake) Lack of redundancy(Eastern Sendai Motorway) Compact-Connected Move to higher ground(Case of Ofunato and Kamaishi)
 Regeneration of social bonds(Shanghai)

16②Redundancy

Failure of emergency mode （Heavy

traffic jam in Route 43 at the Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake）
Rescue team could not pass
(Failure of soft measure)

Collapsed Expressway(Failure of hard measure)

出典：国土交通省
近畿地方整備局

17

出典：神戸市 市民参画推進局 広報課

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②Redundancy

Failure of redundancy (Express way network in
Tohoku area)

Closure just after theearthquake (15:50 11 March)
Crack

Aomori

Bump
Morioka

Sendai

290km
Subsidence

Debrisopen
可closed不可

18
出典： NEXCO東日本

Strategy for resilient land andsociety（3） Resilience Countermeasure/resilient infrastructure (coast levee in Taro,
Miyako, Iwate)※New levee: collapsed, Old levee: survive
 Importance of infrastructure arrangement planning(Case of Sendai
east motor way)

 Redundancy Failure of emergency mode (Route 43 at the Great Hanshin-Awaji
earthquake) Failure of redundancy(Express way network in Tohoku area)

 Compact-Connected Removal to high land (Case of Ofunato and Kamaishi)
 Regeneration of Social Connectivity (Shanghai)

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③Compact-ConnectedLong term evacuation（case of move to higher ground）

Yoshihama,
Minamisanriku

No victims

Moved to higher ground

Tsunami flood area（参照）内閣府 中央防災会議 東北地方太平洋地震を教訓とした
地震・津波対策に関する専門調査会第3回会合資料（2011.6.19）

20③Compact-Connected

Regeneration of social bonds(Shanghai)

21
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Countermeasures for Resilient Land and Society
Mitigation

Adaptation<Long term><Long term>

Defensive
Infrastructure

Hard

Shrinking<Short term><Short to Long term>

Soft

Education
Information Service

Evacuation
Planning

Mitigation
andAdaptation

NatureHuman activity

Restriction on budget and CO2 emission

22

Predicted seismic intensity of Tokai earth quake andtrunk lines

Tomei Expway
Iwata Fukuroi

Legend
凡例
凡例
高速道路

Hamamatsu sta. to
Iwata and Fukuroi

Express way
高速道路

N02-08_EB02

Shinkansen
震度分布_対象地域_Clip
N02-08_EB02
東海道新幹線
Seismic
intensity
震度2.9 - 3.0
3.1 - 3.5
3.6 - 4.0
4.1 - 4.5

0

25

50

100 km

4.6 - 5.0

Source)
予測震度：地震被害想定支援ツール（総務省）
東海道新幹線：国土数値情報（国土交通省）
高速道路：全国デジタル道路地図データベース（（財）日本デジタル道路地図協会）

5.1 - 5.5
5.6 - 6.0
6.1 - 6.5
6.6 - 7.023

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国際交通安全学会 国際シンポジウム「非常時の交通と安全」基調講演「東日本大震災の復興と教訓」

公立大学法人熊本県立大学理事長
五百旗頭真はじめに ------ この列島の住民の伝統的な生き方(1) 自然と共生し、豊かな自然の恵みの中で生きる(2) 時に暴虐なる大自然に対し、首をすくめてやり過ごし、同じ家を再建(3) 砂丘プラス貞山堀、加藤清正の治水など、治山治水の伝統

1 近現代の対処(1) 明治三陸津波後の高台移転 ------ 不便という代償(2) 戦後の防災
・1959年伊勢湾台風→1960年災害対策基本法

・以後、一災害毎に、後追いパッチワーク的防災強化(実感主義)
・阪神淡路(1995)後に数個の新法 ------ ほぼ完成か(3) あとは「津波防災」(河田恵昭書、岩波新書)

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2 東日本大震災 ------ 広域複合災害(1) 大地震（M:9.0)には強かった日本社会(2) 大津波に対し不十分な日本社会、ただこの地なればこそ(cfスマトラ)(3) 原発と閉鎖的専門集団

3 復興の特徴(1) 関東大震災後 ------ 後藤新平の復興院とその挫折(2) 阪神淡路大震災 ------ スピーディーな具体的提言と全政府態勢(3) 東日本大震災①遅い復興の足取り②提言書「悲惨のなかの希望」③復旧に留まらない全般的復興(より安全なまち、生業・農業の再生、
長寿社会、再生可能エネルギ一等への対応)④「減災」概念、「特区」手法、創造的復興⑤復興税を伴う財源おわりに ------ 今後の課題(1) まちづくりプランの合意決定(2) なぜガレキで鎮魂の森をつくらないのか(3) 貞観地震後 ------ 悪夢のシナリオ(4) 自衛隊を減らし続けてよいのか(5) 次なる大災害と関西広域連合・海兵隊(6) 南海・東南海・東海 ------ 津波防災地域づくりに関する法律

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“URBAN PROBLEMS, DISASTER RISK AND ITSRESOLUTION : JAKARTA CASE ”

JAKARTA CAPITAL CITY GOVERNMENTSUTANTO SOEHODHODEPUTY GOVERNOR OF JAKARTA FOR TRADE, INDUSTRY AND TRANSPORTATIONANDPROFESSOR OF TRANSPORTATION, UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIAGREATER JAKARTA OVERVIEW

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Jakarta consists of 5 Municipalities, 1 Regency, 44 Districts and 267 Sub-districts
Land Area ± 652 Km² (excluded Thousand Islands Area)
In 2007, per capita GRDP of DKI Jakarta inhabitants at current price was Rp.62.49 million (US$ 6.7 billion), and at 2000 constant price was
Rp.36.73 million (US$ 3,95 billion)
Total Population of Jakarta: ± 9.6 million
Day Time Population: ± 12 million
Population density of Jakarta: 14,000 to 15,500 per km2, in certain area 20,000 to 30,000 per km2
Total Population of Greater Jakarta : ± 28 million

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JAKARTA TRANSPORTATION OVERVIEW Number of motorized vehicles in 2010 is more than 6,5 million consist of
98.2% private vehicles and 1.8% public transport. Trip annual growth is
9,5% in the last 5 years.
 New vehicles : 240 unit cars, 890 unit motorcycles per day Modal share of public transport in 2010 is 17.8%, motorcycle is 42.8%
and private vehicle is 12.4%.
 Road length = 7.650 km with the road area = 40,1 km2 (6,2% from total
area of the city). Annual average growth of road length = ± 0,01%.
 Total demand for public transport in DKI Jakarta has reached 20 million
trips/day

PORTRAIT OF TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS IN JAKARTA

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TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS IN JAKARTA
1. The number and variety of vehicles on the roads far
exceeds the capacity of existing roadway infrastructure;
2. Poor of public transportation services;
3. Road conditions vary from good to dangerously poor;
4. Road safety awareness is very low, and many drivers,
especially the motorcycle and moped drivers, disregard
most traffic laws.

TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN JAKARTA
Year
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006

Traffic
Accidents(case)
7,817
8,235
7,329
6,393
5,154
4,407

Source : Jakarta Police Department (2012)

Dead(person)
984
1,048
1,071
1,169
999
1,128

Seriously
Injured(person)
2,706
3,473
3,388
2,597
2,345
2,372

Slight Injured(person)
6,093
5,825
5,155
4,317
3,398
2,188

Economic
Losses(Rp million)
17,722
17,744
12,393
NA
NA
NA

25

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JAKARTA TRAFFIC ACCIDENT MAP

FIRE INCIDENT IN JAKARTA•

During 2006 – 2010 : 3.317 Fire Incidents, 90% occured in slum areas;•

36.478 households ( or 1.046.161 people) are suffered from the fire incidents;•

Casualty : 82 dead and 238 injured;•Fire Coverage : 1,339,489 square meter;•

Losses : Rp.669,3 billion (US$ 71,97 million);•

Causes: 54,6% due to short circuit and 10% stove explosion.

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FIRE INCIDENT IN JAKARTA

Year

Fire Incidents(case)

Dead(person)Injured(person)

2011
2010
2009
2008

963
693
769
792

13
21
NA
NA

67
69
NA
NA

Source : Jakarta Provincial Disaster Risk Management Agency (2012)

Economic
Losses(Rp billion)
180
205
253
222

JAKARTA FLOOD 2007

In February 2007, Jakarta was hit by one of the worst flood ever experience (return
period 50 years), covering 70% of metropolitan area, with total Financial Loss of US $879,12 million, and Loss of Lives: 79, Refugees: 223,203.

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JAKARTA FLOOD 2007

FLOOD RELATED FACTORS• Jakarta is crossing by 13 River System from Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek).
• 40% of Jakarta area, particularly at part of North Jakarta is a low-land, lies below
Mean Sea Level.
• Land subsidence increased by 0.5 cm per year.
• High tide due to the increasing of Mean Sea Level by 0.5 cm per year as an impact
of global warming• Heavy rain fall due to the increasing of sea surface temperature to 0.5 - 1o C

Jakarta Area

13 Rivers System Across Jakarta

Jakarta is crossing by 13 River System from Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek)

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MAIN CAUSES OF FLOODS IN JAKARTA
1. Encroachment of river corridors / drainage canals;
2. Reduced drainage capacity of rivers and canals due tosedimentation;
3. Land subsidence (North Jakarta) due to excessive ground water
abstraction;
4. Indiscriminate solid waste disposal in rivers and canals;
5. Residential and commercial use of retention areas, open space andgreen areas particularly at upstream area outside Jakarta;
6. Insufficient retention and storage capacity upstreams(deforestation, real estate development, encroachment of naturallakes and reservoirs).

TRANSPORTATION RESOLUTION : 3 STRATEGY IN JAKARTA
TRANSPORTATION MASTERPLAN
MRT / Subway

PUBLICTRANSPORTDEVELOPMENT

LRT / Monorail
BRT / Busway
Alternative
Transportation
3 in 1JAKARTA
TRANSPORTATION MASTERPLAN(PTM)Road Pricing

TRAFFIC RESTRAINT
Parking Restraint
Park and Ride

Road Network
NETWORKCAPACITY
IMPROVEMENT

Pedestrianisasi/NMV
ATCS / ITS

29

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FIRST STRATEGY : PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
1.
2.
3.
4.

Mass Rapid Transit (Subway)
Light Rail Transit (Monorail)
Bus Rapid Transit (Busway)
Alternative Transportation (Waterways)

Z
X
P
l

2

c

j
b
a

e

d

Y

h

A
B

k

a

Blok M – Kotab

Pulo Gadung - HarmonicKalideres - HarmonidPulogadung – Dukuh Atase

Kampung Melayu - AncolfRagunan - Kuningang

Kp. Rambutan – Kp. MelayuhLebak Bulus – Harmoni

i

Pinang Ranti – Grogol – Pluitj

Cililitan - Tanjung Priokk

Pulogebang – Kampung MelayulPluit – Tanjung Priokm

Pondok Kelapa – Blok M

n

UI – Pasar Minggu - ManggaraioCiledug - Blok M

o
m
n
f
1
i
g

A

MONOREL Green LineB

MONOREL Blue Line

1

MRT Lebak Bulus – Dukuh Atas

2

MRT Dukuh Atas – Kp. BandanXY

BKB Cengkareng - Karet
BKS Karet - Cawang
BKB Cawang - Cakung

Z

PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK 2020
JAKARTA TRANSPORTATION MASTERPLAN
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SECOND STRATEGY : TRAFFIC RESTRAINT
1.
2.
3.
4.

Traffic Restraint Zone ( 3 in 1)
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
Parking Control and Pricing
Park & Ride Development

THIRD STRATEGY : NETWORK CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Area Traffic Control System (ATCS) Development
Road Maintenance and Improvement
Flyover and Underpass Development
Toll Road Development
Pedestrian Facility Improvement
INTELLEGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMSIMPLEMENTATION

1. Area Traffic Control System (ATCS)
2. Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
3. Traffic Management Center (TMC)
4. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Automation

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FLOOD RESOLUTION : FLOOD CONTROL POLICYUP-STREAM- Reservoir development- Lake Rehabilitation- Reforestation

STRUCTURAL

DOWN-STREAM- Canals development, river and ponds
normalization- Polder development and maintenance- Tide water anticipation- Land Subsidence anticipation- Vulnerable resettlement policy

FLOOD CONTROLPOLICY- Spatial Control- Community awareness- Early Warning System- Emergency Response System- River Conservation- Flood Hazard Mapping

NON
STRUCTURAL

JAKARTA’S FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Peil Schall Ciledug (Angke Hulu)
4 hours to Cengkaren Drain Gate

1

Peil Schall Pondok Rangon (Sunter Hulu)
4.5 hours to Pulo Gadung Water Gate
73

Peil Schall Sawangan (Kali Pesanggrahan)
4.5 hours to Cengkareng Drain Gate624Peil Schall Ciganjur (Krukut Hulu)
4 hours to Karet Water Gate

Peil Schall Cimanggis (Cipinang Hulu)
4.5 hours to Pulo Gadung Water Gate

Peil Schall Depok (Kali Ciliwung)
6 hours to Manggarai Water Gate

5

Peil Schall Katulampa (Kali Ciliwung)
3 hours to Depok Post

32

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SPATIAL PLANNING STRATEGY FOR JAKARTA 2030
1. Developing Jakarta to the West, East and North andcontrolling development to the South

2. Expanding the development to the North while managing the
Jakarta Bay through reclamation and building theInternational Hub Port
3. Optimizing and developing system of centre for service andtrade, goods distribution, tourism and creative economy,both within national and international scale, supported with
sufficient infrastructure and facilities
4. Developing Mass Rapid Transit system as a backbone oftransportation network and implementing Transit Oriented
Development for the area surrounding
5. Implementing redevelopment, revitalizations, and renewing
areas in the city that is strategic and with high potency

6. Developing infrastructure and facilities for flood control bypolder system development, returning and refunctioning
dams and reservoir, river normalization and building wall
defense for sea and river

SPATIAL PLANNING STRATEGY FOR JAKARTA 2030
7. Integrating infrastructure system of Jakarta with
Bodetabek

8. Optimizing the utilization of land by developing
vertical housing and selectively implementing therenewable and improvement of “kampung” area
9. Controlling ribbon development by consolidating
commercial activities into centers
10. Preserving heritage area for tourism, cultural,
historical and science interests

11. Protecting the conservation area, water resources andgreen open space for ecology balance
12. Anticipating global warming by implementing green
building concept

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ROLES OF GEO-SPATIAL, SATELLITE AND REMOTE SENSING
1.
2.
3.
4.

Provide synoptic overview of pre- and post-situation;
Substitute non-existing or outdated maps;
Provide tailored thematic information (damage);
Support the field mission planning (where is the mostaffected area, what type of damage can we expect, etc.);
5. Extrapolate field observations to statistically (more) reliable
estimates of the total scale of the damage;
6. Unbiased information that is not distorted for politicalreasons or other forms of misinformation .

IMPORTANT STEPS TAKEN BY DKI JAKARTA
GOVERNMENT
1. Establishing of the provincial disaster risk management agency(BPBD);
2. Jakarta Coastal Defense Project to build a 60 km long sea
defense along coast to prevent damage both from tsunami risk,
land subsidence and sea level rise;
3. Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation Project : conducted a study of
dredging plan for river across Greater Jakarta Area;
4. The Jakarta Building Control and Monitoring Office is develo
ping a risk map for Jakarta within micro zones of 150 square
meters (for each zones), which analyzes buildings and soil
condition within each. This program relates to earthquakes andbuilding quality;

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IMPORTANT STEPS TAKEN BY DKI JAKARTA
GOVERNMENT
5. Empowering the civic police to undertake enforcement for
traffic support, social issues, and disaster mitigations;
6. Implementing the PTM in the multi-years basis to rescue traffic
problems in the short, medium and long term periods;
7. Establishing the crisis center managed by civic police and firebrigade to monitor incidents on day-to-day basis.

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Managing Catastrophic Disasters

Srikantha Herath
Senior Academic Programme Officer
United Nations University, Institute for Sustainability
and Peace
1

Outline• Disaster trends• Impact of 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Sri
Lanka and comparison with Tohoku experiences• Disaster impacts in Frequency - Loss domain• Recovery experiences from Sri Lanka• Lessons for sustainable catastrophic risk
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Global Disaster Trends and Characteristics
60

Disaster losses (1950-2001)
Munich Re

10•Disaster losses have increasedby 7 times in last 40 years•Ratio to insured vs. non insured
has expandedThis talk will focus onflood disasters mainly
Hydrometeorological3

Geological

Biological
Source: ISDR based on EMDATAre floods increasing?

• Munich Re study from a 25 year data base show that there is no significant
change in the number of disasters from 1987 to 1998 (verified data). Comparisonof total disasters to catastrophic disasters show a slight increase of total disasters
due to the increased information flow.
• However, the economic loss has increased significantly over the past decades

Flood Trends and Global Change
Thomas Loster
Proceedings of the
EuroConference on
Global Change andCatastrophe Risk
Management:
Flood Risks in Europe

4IIASA

Laxenburg, Austria

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Extreme Events• Extreme Events refer to events that are rare at agiven place and time
– Rainfall, temperature, wind, pressure• How rare?
– less than 10th percentile– greater than 90th percentile

Why losses are increasing?
• Increased exposure– Population growth– Migration to vulnerable areas• Coastal areas• Flood plains• Increase in the value of assets• Increase in the vulnerability of structures(infrastructure, buildings due to aging)• Changes in environmental conditions– Urbanization– Climate change.

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Catastrophic
Disasters

7

Venezuela, debris flow

LOS CORALES







>10,000 persons lost lives. (25000-50000).
Over 600,000 people were affected.
Us$3.2 billion, or 3.3 percent of the GDP ofVenezuela.
Property and major infrastructure make up about
60 percent of the direct damage.
65,000 houses were damaged and over 24,000
houses were destroyed.

DS/Dic. 99
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Development in vulnerable areas

Venezuela - 1999

Nepal - 1993

43

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2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

 In Sri Lanka estimates stood

Tsunami Wave Heights (m)TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI HEIGHTS

3-4
5

at more than 31,000 lives lost,
4,100 missing and 1 million
affected. Almost half of theaffected lost their livelihoods
 Sri Lanka: 1,809 persons
killed per 1 million
inhabitants; Next was
Indonesia with 759 persons
killed per million
 Economic losses at about
7% of GDP. Economic
growth will drop by 1% (6 ->5%) Damage to housing:
50,000(full) +38500 (partial)>>Build 100,000 new houses.

IOC/UNESCO Bulletin No. 23 As of 2 May 2011

From Prof. Samantha
Hettiarachchi

5

IOC/UNESCO Bulletin

No. 23

5-8

5

6-8

5-8
2
7-12

4-5
11

Height (m)

7-9
4-10
4-9

7-9

10

5-11

20

30

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12.9.10 4:59:47 PM• Japan Losses are estimated 15,093
deaths, and 9,121 people missing .

• 195 persons per 1 million of
population lost their lives.
• The Japanese Government
estimates total economic losses
from the Tohoku disaster to be
between US$198 to 309 billion,
approximately 3.6 percent to 5.7
percent of 2010 GDP.
• Over 125,000 buildings damaged or
destroyed, about 1/4 of new
constructions per year.
The magnitude of the Tsunami in Japan ismuch higher than that of Sri Lanka. If thesame event happened in Sri Lanka thecasualties could be extremely high where as
the magnitude of 2004 Indian ocean tsunami
would have a much lower impact in Japan.

Frequency Loss Relation
and Risk Reduction Strategies
 It is better to compare losses withLossdisaster frequency when we
discuss preventive measures.
 Frequent disasters produce small
losses. Very rare events produce
huge losses. This is common
across different types of disasters
and across countries.

.001

.033

.2

1

Frequency

1000

30

5

1

Return Period

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Frequency Loss Relation
and Risk Reduction Strategies
In disaster management our objective is to move the loss line as low as possible.
This would need different approaches for different frequencies.
Now, the challenge is to manage risks in the left most column, catastrophic events
that are rare but have very high impacts.

Development

Early warning
RecoverySoft and
Hard Measures

Loss

Target Loss
Frequency Relation

time

Regional or
global risk
sharing

Frequent Flood Losses :Infrastructure Solutions

.001

.033

.2

1

Frequency

1000

30

5

1

Return Period

Development anddisaster risk reduction

Global Assessment Report: ISDR, 2009
46

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Climate Change impacts
Flood Disasters: Time trends by continents 1974-2003
Asia

Nature Journal
Feb, 2011

Number of events•HumanAfricacontribution to
America more-intense
Europe precipitation
extremes•Anthropogenic
Oceania greenhouse gas
1995

1974
Brisbane Australia

2003

contribution toflood risk in
England andWales in autumn
2000

Sri Lanka

CC and change of extremes• Changes to extremes
are more important
than the changes tomean• Past extreme
magnitudes become
more frequent• Return period for agiven magnitude will
become shorter• Extremes can increase
from increasing mean aswell as increasing
variability
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Future Flood
Frequency Relation

Rare extreme events will become
more frequent causing large damages
unless reduction measures are
implemented ; Require Large
investment

Loss

Target Flood
Frequency Relation

Flood frequency
Relation

Flood Frequency Loss Relation Changes
due to climate change

Frequent Flood Losses :Infrastructure Solutions

Early warning
RecoveryFrequency
Soft and
Hard Measures

How do we mitigate such losses
in the future?

• Rare events: Limited experiences--> need toshare and disseminate• Improve existing disaster mitigation strategies byconsidering catastrophic risks in a sustainable
framework.
• Risks of catastrophic ‘rare’ events should not be
isolated from daily livelihood needs.
• Solutions should be holistic -- integrated

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Coping with Extremes:
UNU Experiences• Challenge: Accept complete safety is not possible• Make infrastructure that would fail in a safe way when they exceed
design standards, rather than trying to make protective structures thatwould not fail.: Provide a safety valve - ‘safefail’ instead of ‘failsafe’• Share risks >> globally• Examples:– Make spillways along river dyke
upstream. Excess water would spill
off at designated locations along
river preventing catastrophic losses– Ring dykes protecting vital assets
and leaving space for floods

If we do not provide a safety valve, the system will fail at the weakest
point, causing catastrophic losses.
Collapse of natural sand dune protection at Hanbantota, Sri Lanka in
2004 IO Tsunami

Hambantota
Breach of Sand Dunes
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RBA Salinization: Experiences form Sri

Lanka

Salinization has made more than
15,000 wells unusable for drinking
water supplies.
Over-pumping to clean out often
encouraged salt-intrusion andnegative results
Despite significant efforts, salinity
improvements were driven mostly
or exclusively by natural
remediation from rainfall
infiltration (IWMI)
Rains helped to wash down thesalt from soil, but increased theground water contamination

Informing global community of theJapanese experience, the goodpractices, lessons, resilient systems

The process of recovery planningshould be made available to othercountries.

LEARNING FROM NATURE

An ecological survey with the support from UNEP had
been carried out in Sri Lanka after the Tsunami.
Surveys at 1 km interval went inland and took 6 transects
each 500m to either side.

Inference: Limited impairment of
ecosystem structure and functioning,(rare exceptions e.g., Bentota sand spit)

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LEARNING from Nature and Buildings that Survived• Future cities may combine
resilience of ecosystems to provide
the ‘safety valve’ and protect
people and important assets.

Galle Fort, Sri Lanka

Ancient Irrigation Systems - Sri Lanka• They have been built from 5th century BC to 12th
century AD  for 17 centuries• Number of ancient small reservoirs (definition:
have a command area < 80 ha) amount to about
20,000 (15,000 operating now)
• Micro-Macro Integration• Resilience from Distributed Systems• Multiple Benefits• Community Based Management, integral partof daily life
Village tank also serves as the community center
Images of Parakrama Samuthraya

26
15

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Floating Houses - Netherlands

Low Impact Development (LID)
New York City Plan
New York City has decided to invest US$5.3 billion in green
infrastructure on roofs, streets and sidewalks to reduce
flooding instead of US$6.8 billion in traditional pipe andtank improvements. This promises multiple benefits. The
new green spaces will absorb more rainwater and reducethe burden on the city’s sewage system, air quality is likely
to improve, and water and energy costs may fall.
1.

Build cost-effective grey infrastructure2.

Optimize the existing wastewater system

3.

Control runoff from 10% of impervious surfaces through green
infrastructure and other source controls

4.

Institutionalize adaptive management, model impacts, measure CSOs,
and monitor water quality

5.

Sustain stakeholder engagement520910配付資料第3.indd 52

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Remarks• Traditional disaster management does nothandle creeping and catastrophic disasters well.
• We need to take ‘people cantered approaches
to reduce impacts of such disasters.
• Concepts of environmental security provides abroad frame work to incorporate such activities.
• We also need to consider the global context tomitigate cases of climate related disasters andmechanisms to support mitigation andrecovery measures.

Thank you for your attention

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