AIM/Provincial and Inter Provincial Model

Hongwei Yang
The 7th AIM International Workshop
15-17, March 2002
At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba,
Japan
1

CONTENTS
Brief history of AIM energy models with bottomup approaches
Major extension from AIM-Local-2001 to AIMLocal-2002
Applications of AIM-Local in the case of China- Necessity to go to provincial level- Demonstration of Provincial/Inter-provincial
studies- Estimation of the effects of Clean Development
Mechanism at provincial and sectoral levels inChina
2

Brief history of AIM energy models
with bottom-up approaches

AIM-Local-2002
AIM-Local-2001
AIM-Enduse
AIM-Enduse

1991 1993 1994

1999 2000

2001

2002

3

(1) AIM-Enduse model

Source: AIM home page -- http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/ipcc/aim/
4

Source:

環境儀 No.2 地球温暖化の影響と対策 アジア太平洋地域における温暖化対策統合評価モデル- AIM

5

(2) AIM-Local-2001
Definitions

Parameters
Variables

Constraints

Service demand
Environmental target
Available energy supply
Linear programming

SolverOperating capacity
Maximum shares of technologies
Maximum exchange of stock
Objective Function

Total cost Æ minimum
6(3) AIM-Local-2002
EnergyDeviceEnergyServiceDevice
ServiceVersion 2001

EnergyEnergyDeviceDeviceServiceServiceVersion 2002

7

Features and Differences of the models
Model

Targeted Calibration
Region in the Base
Year

Intermediate Calculation LPS/ASof air
Process
pollutants
emissions

Link toGIS

AIMCountry
EnduseYes

Yes

Simplified

ASNo

AIMLocal
2001

Subcountry

Yes

No

Detailed

LPS/AS Yes

AIMLocal
2002

Country
Subcountry

Yes
Yes+Adjustment

Detailed

LPS/AS Yes

8

CONTENTS
Brief history of AIM energy models with bottomup approaches
Major extension from AIM-Local-2001 to AIMLocal-2002
Applications of AIM-Local in the case of China- Necessity to go to provincial level- Demonstration of Provincial/Inter-provincial
studies- Estimation of the effects of Clean Development
Mechanism at provincial and sectoral levels inChina
9Major extension from AIMLocal-2001 to AIM-Local-2002(1) Endogenous service and endogenous energy

Thermal Power Generation
Coal/Oil/Gas-based Boilers
Electricity
Electricity Consumption
Residential

Electricity Consumption
Commercial

J: Service

Electricity Consumption
Industrial

Electricity Consumption
Others

K: Energy
10(2) Automatic calibration and adjustment:
automatically adjust service demand andtechnology stocks in the base year.
- Comparing energy demand data in thebase year with the reported energybalance tables;- Calculating adjust coefficients for service
demand and technology stocks in terms ofleast calibration errors.
11

CONTENTS
Brief history of AIM energy models with bottomup approaches
Major extension from AIM-Local-2001 to AIMLocal-2002
Applications of AIM-Local in the case of China- Necessity to go to provincial level- Demonstration of Provincial/Inter-provincial
studies- Estimation of the effects of Clean Development
Mechanism at provincial and sectoral levels inChina
12

Applications of AIM-Local model in the case of China

1. Necessity to go
to provincial
level(1) Regional
differences
economic development
Shanghai:34547
Guizhou:2662
13

energy demand and supply

Example: Electricity supply

14

Example: Electricity supply

15

Example:coal mines
distribution16

(2) Domestic policy needs“Great West Development” program andenergy development- Electricity transmission from west to east
(Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong)- Natural gas pipeline from west to east
(Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia,Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui, jiansu, Shanghai)17

Economic development and energy consumption
is a more provincial-specific issue.
* Energy transportation (provincial/inter-provincial)
for coal, oil and gas;
* Development of renewable energy
wind power (Xinjiang, InnerMongolia)
geothermal (Tibet)
hydro (Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi,
Guizhou, Fujian, Guangdong)* Nuclear power (Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu)

18

Economic development and environment control
is also a more provincial-specific issue.
* “Two control zones” policy allocates SO2
emissions into each province.
* Tax rates for air pollution control varies acrossprovinces;* There is a policy need to analyze air pollutants
emission trading at provincial level;19(3) From the point of view of global environmental
studies, the provincial approach helps
to have more reasonable estimation for future
greenhouse gas emissions in China;
to carry out concrete policy countermeasures
for greenhouse gas emission control and air
pollutants emission reduction.

20

2. Demonstration of Provincial/InterProvincial Studies

21

Industrial
Iron and Steel (LPS), Cement, Petrochemical, Paper and pulp, Others

Residential
Air conditioning, Heating, Cooking,Lighting, Hot water, Others

Commercial
Air conditioning, Heating, Cooking,Lighting, Hot Water, Others

Transportation
Automobile, Train, Ship ,Air
Freight, Passenger

Provincial energy balance tables,
productivity tables

Power generation (LPS),Oil refinery

Calibration in basic year

Partial Equilibrium modelfor oil, coal, electricity and transport
Country projections ofPopulation, GDP,
Iron/Cement/Paper/Ethylene/Crops productions,
Nuclear/ Hydro/Renewable supply

Energy conversion

Agriculture
Pumping, Heating, Tractor
Macro-trends (projection of provincial level)
Provincial ratios of Population, GDP, Iron/Cement/Paper/Ethylene/Crops
productions, etc.

22(1) Beijing: all sectors (AIM-Local-2002)(2) Shanxi: all sectors (AIM-Local-2002)

base year: 2000
simulation period: 2000-2030
emissions: CO2, SO2, NO223

Stock allocation module
Energy consumption of thermal power generation
FuelCoal

Fuel oil

Natural gas

Regional total(Sum by K)

……

……

……

……

RegionRegion i1
Region i2……
Region in
National total(Sum by I)

24

Simulation result----

202 VARIABLE S.L Provincial stock (l,i,j): Thermal power in GW(l,i,j):Beijing
TianjinHebei
Shanxi InnerMong~
InnerMong~
OILBLR.POWER0.268
0.034
0.076
0.007
COLBLR.POWER
2.759
3.786
16.88612.79610.051GASTBN.POWER
1.418078E1.418078E-6+
Liaoning
Jilin Heilongji~
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Heilongji~
OILBLR.POWER
0.999
0.183
0.178
0.687
0.166
COLBLR.POWER
11.393
7.378
9.896
9.642
18.466GASTBN.POWER
0.014
0.251
+
Zhejiang
Anhui
FujianJiangxi
Shandong
OILBLR.POWER
0.839
0.022
0.219
0.091
1.084
COLBLR.POWER
9.603
6.667
3.327
3.044
16.913GASTBN.POWER
0.017
+
Henan
Hubei
Hunan
Guangdong
Guangxi
OILBLR.POWER
0.019
0.037
0.021
5.775
0.023
COLBLR.POWER
14.1875.765
3.729
12.4292.426
GASTBN.POWER
0.037+
HainanChongqing
Sichuan
Guizhou
YunnanOILBLR.POWER
0.008
0.014
0.031
0.009
COLBLR.POWER
0.485
2.206
6.204
4.557
4.035
GASTBN.POWER
0.105
0.051
0.217
+
Tibet
Shaanxi
Gansu
Qinghai
Ningxia
OILBLR.POWER 3.959023E0.030
0.033
3.959023E-5
COLBLR.POWER
5.548
3.327
0.682
1.916+
Xinjiang
OILBLR.POWER
0.023
COLBLR.POWER
3.249GASTBN.POWER
0.478

25

(3) Inter-provincial

module- Coal transportationfrom Shanxi to Beijing

Railway:
Datong-Qinhuangdao
Baotou-Beijing

26

Ratio of Beijing/Shanxi for energy, CO2 and SO21.00

EnergyCO2SO2

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

27

3. Estimation of the effects of Clean Development
Mechanism at provincial and sectoral levels in China(US$/kg-C)GASTBN

0.7

Case5
Case6
Case7

0.6
0.5

Quit of COLBLR

0.4

LSCBLR, IGCC

0.3

IGCC

0.20.01990

Quit of COLBLRGASTBN0.1IGCC

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Provincial level: (Beijing study) CDM fund used as subsidies
to technologies can help to reduce the marginal costs of Gas
turbine and IGCC.
28

Projection of future emissions from iron andsteel industry with/without CDM
Shares of the accumulated production by technologies under different scenarios (%)

Period: 2000-2030
Scenario Openhearth
Market
0.4
CDM1
0.4
CDM2
0.4
Min
0.4
CO2

Oxygen AC
Electric81.3
18.3
73.7
19.4
58.2
24.5
42.6
24.3

DC
Electric0.0
1.4
11.0
30.7

HeatRecovery
0.0
5.25.92.1DIOSTotal

0.0
0.00.00.0

100
100100100Present technologies in China
Advanced technologies from Japan29

CERs from CDM
85

Market(Mt-C)

80

CDM18%

CDM220%

75
70
65
6034%

Minimum CO255
50
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Reasonable scale of CDM opportunities for Japan’s technologies inChina’s iron and steel industry

30

Possible application areas of AIM-Localmodel?
Specific needs and requirements to themodel?

31