28th AIM International Workshop
13-14 September 2022

The National Strategy on Climate Change for2050 of Vietnam:
Introduction and AIM models contributions
Nguyen Tung Lam
VNPINational Strategy on CC•••

Issued by Decision No. 896/QD-TTg dated 26th July 2022 by PM
By 2030: total national GHG emissions are reduced by 43.5% compared toBAU.
In which:– The energy sector decreased by 32.6%, the emissions did not exceed 457
million tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2eq);– The agricultural sector decreased by 43.0%, the emissions did not exceed 64
million tons of CO2eq;– The forestry sector, land use will reduce emissions by 70% and increasecarbon sequestration by 20%, with total emissions and removals reaching atleast -95 million tons of CO2eq;– Waste sector decreased by 60.7%, emissions did not exceed 18 million tons ofCO2eq;– The industrial processes sector decreased by 38.3%, the emissions did notexceed 86 million tons of CO2eq. Establishments with annual greenhouse gas
emissions of 2,000 tons CO2eq or more must reduce greenhouse gasemissions.

National Strategy on CC• By 2050: total national GHG emissions reach the net emission levelof “0”; emissions peak in 2035, then decline rapidly.
• In which:– The energy sector decreased by 91.6%, the emissions did not exceed
101 million tons of CO2eq;– The agricultural sector decreased by 63.1%, the emissions did notexceed 56 million tons of CO2eq;– The forestry sector, land use will reduce emissions by 90%, increasecarbon sequestration by 30%, total emission and absorption will reachat least -185 million tons of CO2eq;– The waste sector decreased by 90.7%, the emissions did not exceed 8
million tons of CO2eq;– The industrial processes sector decreased by 84.8%, the emissions did
not exceed 20 million tons of CO2eq. Establishments with annual
greenhouse gas emissions of 200 tons of CO2eq or more must reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

Main tasks
By 2030• Develop and implement a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of all
sectors according to the roadmap to achieve net emissions of "zero" by 2050.
• Conduct a greenhouse gas inventory and reduce greenhouse gas emissions forthe following sectors/ facilities that emit 3,000 tons of CO2eq or more annuallyfrom 2022.
• Other emitters, especially those in the public sector, are encouraged to carryout greenhouse gas inventories and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• Develop a total greenhouse gas emission quota and organize the allocation ofgreenhouse gas emission quotas to greenhouse gas-emitting facilities thatmust carry out a greenhouse gas inventory from 2026;• Implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in daily operations
and in new investment and public procurement, including measures for
economical use, energy efficiency, green buildings, sustainable coolingsustainable, use battery electric vehicles and low-energy devices. Encourage
new investment projects and investment projects to transform, apply
technologies, production processes, provide services with low greenhouse gasemissions;

Main tasks (cont.)
By 2050:• Continue to develop and implement plans to reducegreenhouse gas emissions of all sectors according to
the roadmap to achieve net emissions of "zero" by2050;• Carry out a greenhouse gas inventory and reducegreenhouse gas emissions for establishments that emit
2,000 tons of CO2eq or more annually from 2030; 500
tons of CO2eq or more from 2040; 200 tons of CO2eq
or more by 2050. All public sector establishments must
conduct a greenhouse gas inventory and reduce theirgreenhouse gas emissions.

Energy Sector
Energy Supply:• Continue to develop small hydroelectric plants selectively, up to standards
on environmental protection; expanding a number of medium and largehydropower plants to maximize the efficiency of hydroelectricity;• Increasing the capacity of concentrated solar power plants, rooftop solarpower, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, biomass power,
development of hydrogen fuel technologies, ammonia, tidal energy
technology, waves;• By 2030, the proportion of renewable energy sources includinghydroelectricity, wind power, solar power, biomass will account for at least
33% of total electricity generation. By 2050, renewable energy willaccount for at least 55% of total electricity generation;• Developing energy storage technologies including battery storage,hydroelectricity, heat storage... and smart grid. Application of carbon
capture and storage (CCS) technology for power plants using fossil fuels
and industrial production facilities;

Agricultural Sector• Management, technological innovation in cultivation andanimal husbandry, change in land use methods,
development of low-emission agricultural value chains andpost-harvest processing and preservation;• Sustainable organic agriculture development, cropstructure transformation, integrated crop management,
increased farming area irrigated economically, smart
irrigation for wet rice cultivation and long-term crops;
transforming agricultural farming models towards lowemission; improve feed rations in livestock;• Reusing crop by-products and treating livestock waste asorganic fertilizer, generating biogas; applying composting
and reducing chemical fertilizers; Replace urea with lowemission fertilizers

Forestry and land use• Improve the productivity and quality of plantations toincrease carbon sequestration and reduce emissions
through the application of technical advances, converting
short-cycle plantations to long-cycle plantations; reduce
logging of planted forests for woodchip production.
• Sustainable forest management and forest certification toreduce emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation control, forest fires and biomass burning;
increase GHG absorption through increasing forest quality,
conserving biodiversity and improving ecosystem services.
Developing and replicating agro-forestry models throughadditional planting of forestry trees and timber trees toincrease carbon sequestration and combat landdegradation, giving priority to sloping lands

Waste sector• Implement measures to manage, minimize waste
generation from production to consumption, expand
the responsibility of manufacturers; increase reuse andrecycling of waste.
• Develop models for integrated solid waste
management. Apply advanced measures in solid waste
treatment including: landfill with gas collection (LFG),
semi-aerobic landfill; produce compost from organic
waste; burning solid waste to generate electricity;
Production of fuel pellets from solid waste.
• Apply advanced measures in waste and wastewater
treatment to reduce methane emissions.

Industrial Processes• Improving, developing and applying technology in the production ofbuilding materials; develop and use energy-saving and green
building materials in the residential and commercial sectors.
Replacing coal with natural gas in the production of ceramic tiles;
use of alternative materials in glass production. Implement
solutions for blast furnace slag crushing, fly ash crushing, Puzzolana
crushing and limestone crushing instead, reducing clinker ratio in
cement production;• Applying carbon capture technology in the fields of cement
production, chemicals - fertilizers and steelmaking;• Completing the system of regulations and standards on green
buildings and green urban areas, ensuring that by 2050 theregulations and standards on green buildings and green urban areas
are applied compulsorily to all public works, new construction.

AIM models contribution•The AIM team has contributed to the preparation the long-term strategy.
Results of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) was used for reference
and consulted with line ministries, as the agreement at the 6th Vietnam –Japan Environmental Policy Dialogue between the Ministry of NaturalResources (MONRE) of Vietnam and the Ministry of the Environment ofJapan (MoEJ) organized on August 24th and 25th 2020 virtually. TheMONRE and MoEJ agreed that the development of the long-term strategyof Vietnam based on AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model).
• The AIM model has provided an overview of long-term GHG peak ofVietnam, and suggested the potential countermeasures, as well as paths
to achieve the mitigation targets.
• Three models have been used in this study; ExSS (Extended Snapshot)model to assess the emissions in 2050, AIM/Enduse to assess thetechnology options to achieve the future GHG mitigation, and AIM/CGE toassess the economic impacts to reduce the GHG emissions.
• AIM team: Dr. Masui, Dr. Hoa, Dr. Hibino, Dr. Hirayama, Ochi san, Dr. OtaSuggestions from models results•••••••••To achieve carbon neutrality without unreasonable transition, it is necessary to set the peak year
before 2035.
To consider high proportion of RE in electricity generation. The global ratio of renewables ingeneration is 90% to achieve net zero by 2050. Vietnam has relatively abundant potential for PV
and wind power and expected to overcome technological, economic and social barriers and achieve
large amount of deployment for PV and wind power.
Power generation in Coal Power Plant will be peak in 2025 and decline to zero by 2050
New Gas Power Plants should be equipped with CCS or be prepared to install CCS. CCS should bestarted after 2030 at latest.
More than 50% of new Biomass Power Plants should be equipped with CCS or be prepared to install
CCS by 2050.
Hydrogen should be Equivalent to 25% of total final energy consumption in 2020 is required by2050.
CCS in the industry sector: It would be required in cement sector and iron and steel sector by 2050.
Annual CCS quantity: In 2050 necessary scale of CCS will reach more amount than the total CO2emission from fuel combustion and industrial process in 2014. It is essential to find the suitable
place for storage and operate the system within coming 30 years.
All passenger cars should be EV after 2030, freight cars should be BEV or FCV after 2040.

Conclusion remarks•••

It can be said that it will not be easy to achieve the pathway proposed by AIM’sanalysis, but other pathways will not be easy either. But from these results, atleast the earlier hydrogen and CCS are introduced, the earlier the GHG emission
peaks, and that leads to avoid the rapid emission reduction in a short term after
the peak. In order to avoid stranded assets, CCS must be ready for being equippedwith industrial and power plants well in advance.
To achieve the net zero emission, it is estimated the amount of investment around308 billion USD (investment cost after 2022 is discounted at the rate of 10%). The
investment on renewables and batteries in power sectors and EV in transport
sector account for the majority of the additional costs. The international support
will accelerate the peak out, to help the country achieve both GDP growth andGHG emission reduction.
it still needs a good and effective coordination amongst line ministries, with thedirection from the top leader in implementing existing climate change policies.
Regular review and update of ministries action plan are important to achieve thetarget of the Net Zero Emission by 2050 for Vietnam.

VNPI• Vietnam National Productivity Institute Ministry of Science and Technology:• Website: vnpi.vn• Function:– National Institute on Productivity policies– Productivity Enhancement based on Science,
Technology and Innovation– Sustainable Production Consulting

Thank you very much for your attention!