AIM Training Workshop 2007
Organized by NIES, October 2007, Tsukuba, Japan

IPCC New Scenario from theViewpoint of Developing Countries

P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

IPCC NEW SCENARIOS: OVERVIEW• Context• The Preparatory Phase and Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Phase 1: Prepare climate and socio-economic
scenarios in parallel• Phase 2: “Pair up” climate scenarios with new socioeconomic scenarios; and scaling for IAV research• Phase 3: IAV-IAM “teaming to more fully integrate
representation of impacts in IAMs and IAV research.
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countriesScenarios for Whom?
Three major user communities:
1. Climate modeling community—need scenarios toprovide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths
for Earth System Models.
2. Impacts modeling community—need scenarios toprovide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths
to assess the consequences of potential climatechanges and to set the context for adaptivestrategies.
3. Emissions mitigation community—to provide acoherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess
the costs of emissions mitigation
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

REPRESENTATIVE SCENARIOSFORCING AGENTS
GHG Emissions and Concentrations from IAMs
– Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFC’s,PFC’s, SF6– Emissions of chemically active gases: CO, NOx, NH4,VOCs– Derived GHG’s: tropospheric O3– Emissions of aerosols: SO2, BC, OC– Land use and land cover
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Two Important Extensions toExisting Scenarios• Downscaling of SHORT LIVED SPECIES
and LAND USE/LAND COVER to
appropriate geographic resolution, perhaps asfine as ½o x ½o grid scale for the near-termclimate scenarios (1o x 1o for the long-termclimate scenarios).
• Extension of scenarios to 2300.
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Defining Representative Scenarios
Three Initial Stabilization and one BaselineScenario• High baseline reference • High stabilization level • Median stabilization level • Low stabilization level 

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

8.5 W/m2
6 W/m24.5 W/m2
3 W/m2

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Long-term mitigation: stabilization andequilibrium global mean temperatures● The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2
emissions have to peak
140

World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2)

120
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Stabilization targets:
VI: 855-1130 ppm CO2-eq
V: 710-855 ppm CO2-eq
IV: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
III: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
II: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
I: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

3W/m2 4.5W/m260
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

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Global CO2 Emissions
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IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

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2060

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2080

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2100

Time Scales• The proposed approach focuses on– Near-term (~2030)– Long-term (2100, with extension to 2300)

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Near-term (~2030)• Primary aims:– Increase focus on adaptation (help “mainstreaming”)– Explore near-term opportunities/constraints on mitigation(given technological and institutional inertia), transitions• Key dimensions:– A single central GHG concentration pathway– AOGCMs (no interactive carbon cycle) at higher resolution,
multi-member ensembles, to provide improved
representation of regional changes, extremes, and air quality(important research issues, e.g., initialization)

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Long-term (2100, extended to 2300)• Primary aims:– Explore implications of different stabilization (forging) levels(climate, impacts, and socio-economic/energy) -“thresholds,” and discontinuities– Analysis of “overshoots” for low stabilization levels– Assess feedbacks (carbon cycle)• Key dimensions:– Lower resolution ESMs (but with interactive c-cycle) or
AOGCMs, multi-member ensembles– IAMs will need to extend socio-economic forcing scenarios
from 2100 to 2300

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Developing Country Perspectiveon IPCC New Scenarios

Regional Modeling and Applications:
Relationship to Global Scenarios
Emilio L. La Rovere, P. R. Shukla, Paul Runci

Presentation at “IPCC New Scenarios Expert Meeting”
Noordwijkerhout, September 19-21, 2007

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Research Issues• DC regional models and scenarios : shortertime horizons than in global climate changescenarios• DC representation in global Integrated
Assessment models may be underspecified• Disaggregation of DC in global models is
insufficient for regional IAV and mitigation
studies
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Understanding Development• Dual Economy• Multiple Transitions• Informal Activities• Subsistence Production• Market Performance and Disequilibria• Non-commercial Fuels• Non-economic Concerns• Policy Distortions

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Transitions
Socio-Economic

Demographic⎯
⎯
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⎯

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Population
Urban / Rural
Gender ratio
MigrationDevelopment⎯⎯

Soft indicators: Income, Equity, Literacy, HealthHard indicators: Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances Political⎯⎯⎯

Institutions
Laws
Policies

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Consumption/Life-style Transitions
 Conservation- Substitutions- Recycling
 City Planning Architecture/ Building Codes Changing Preferences Income Effects

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Backbone Technology Transitions
 Logistics- Pipelines
 Electricity T&D- Decentralized utilities Information- Wireless Nanotechnology
 New and Renewable Energy- Hydrogen

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Main Modeling Difficulties inDC Context
Reliability of Economic Data•high inflation rates•

uncertainties on input/output coefficients, priceelasticities, interest rates

Specificities of National Circumstances•skewed income distribution•

dual economy (size of informal economy)•

Disequilibria, non-optimal baselines•

energy resources endowment: e.g. biomass•

relevance of emissions from land-use change

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Research Issues: Mitigation Studies
1) Technical Change in Energy and Non-Energy sectors– New Infrastructure, structural changes, localization– Autonomous x induced energy efficiency improvements– Energy systems: fuel mix consumption patterns fromdifferent income distributions

2) General Economic Theoretical Background– Labour productivity growth, catch-up assumptions– Types of production functions

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Methodological Difficulties:
Treatment of Market Imperfections• Incomplete and fragmented markets, unequal marginal
costs and multiple discount rates across sectors andregions• Strong influence of governmental policies and agentsin energy systems and land use changes• Financial constraints: upfront costs x financial market
imperfections and insufficient saving rates; external
debts and international capital flows

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Emerging drivers of Technological changeInternational Labor market• Wage differential• Income gaps
• Migration

Human Capital
Knowledge flows• Diasporas and social networks• Shifting comparative advantage in knowledge services• Role of local and contextual knowledge• Governance, risks and investment flows
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Relevance of Biomass in DCs• High Share in total energy supply• Main biomass energy resources: wood, charcoal, sugarcane
bagasse, rice husks, ethanol from sugarcane, vegetal oils, biodiesel;• Agricultural land availability:• Land used by agriculture sector• Land used by energy crops• Estimated land for energy production• Total agricultural land (exclusive of land suitable for forest plantations
and energy crops)• Land still available for agriculture in open agricultural frontiers

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Challenges for addressing Bio-energy• Disaggregation of biomass primary resources andsecondary fuels;• Links between bio-fuels and international trade:
commodities markets (e.g. ethanol x sugar, corn, biodiesel x castor oil, palm oil, soybeans); effects of pricesubsidies, WTO rounds, large scale bio-energy
programs on international prices of feed-stocks andfinal products, and on income of small farmers.

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Challenges in Land-use
Change Emissions• Deforestation drivers go far beyond economic factors• Key drivers from social policies– Lack of access to land x agrarian reform– Governance: land-use planning x enforcement of laws &regulations;• How far will deforestation go?
• Huge potential for reforestation of degraded land

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Impact, Adaptation andVulnerability – IAV Studies• Downscaling and up-scaling issues in bothclimate and socio-economic scenarios andstorylines• Need for enhanced focus on regional storyline
and scenario development to ensure
consistency with global scenarios• Local credibility (buy-in from regional
stakeholders) is key
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Developing Country Participation
1. DC Scenario Development in Global Models• Inventory and assess current intra-regional modeling in DC
and identify needs for coordination and linkage with globalmodels• Inventory and assess current DC representation in globalIAMs• Identify capacity building needs by geographic areas• Foster collaborative efforts among DC modelers and with
global modelers for development of new regional
storylines and scenarios

IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Developing Country Participation
2. Increasing Modeling Capacity in DC• Establish DC scientific peer groups to identify key areasfor capacity development• Promote intra- and trans-regional DC modeling andscenario development initiatives• Promote collaborative efforts between modeling groups inDC and IC• Establish an online network/clearinghouse of DC experts
and institutions• Establish funding mechanisms to support these capacity
building initiatives
IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries