Bhopal LCS Scenario: Expected Outcomes
Manmohan Kapshe
School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, India

Aashish Deshpande
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

15th AIM International Workshop
NIES, Tsukuba Japan
20-22 February 2010

Agenda• Indian Cities: Characteristics• Regional Variability• Bhopal Case Study– Drivers of Change– BAU Results– Building Sector• LCS Actions• Future Work

Indian Towns and their Population (2001)
ClassPopulation Range

I% of towns≥ 100,000

423

8.20

172.044

61.48

II50,000 to 99,999

498

9.65

34.43112.30

III

20,000 to 49,999

1386

26.86

41.97415.00

IV

10,000 to 19,999

1560

30.23

22.6038.08

V

5,000 to 9,999

1057

20.48

7.983

2.85

VI

< 5,000237

4.59

0.801

0.29

5,161

100.00279.837

100.00All Classes (I -VI)

••
•
••

Population(million)

No of Towns% Population

India has 5,161 towns out of which 27 are metropolitan cities, 423 are class- I,
498 are class –II, and the rest are 4240 below 50,000.(2001 Census)
Slow growth of population in smaller towns and fast urbanisation in larger cities
Large cities are provider of major services and smaller towns are centres ofdevelopment for surrounding rural area
Towns are close to rural agriculture economy and cities are modernising fasterIT revolution has been a major influencing factor in recent years

Regional Variability: Geographic Factors

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/India_climatic_zone_map_en.svg

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2Source: India NATCOM

Case Study City: Bhopal• The city is centrally located• The climate is composite climate representing
a large part of the country.
• The city has physical features like large water
body, Hills and forests for analysis of localvariations.
• A million plus city, it can represent the majorityof Indian cities.
• Availability of data

Bhopal: Chronological Development

1010 - 1200 AD 1201 - 1800 AD 1801 - 1850 AD 1851 - 1880 AD 1881 - 1930 AD

1931 - 1955 AD

1956 - 1973 AD

1974- 2000 AD

Landuse 2021

(2005)

Source: Master plan 2005

Drivers of change

Allocated land in Hectare•

Land-use change– The development plan area has expanded as the density of many wards
is likely to grow above 400 households/hectare– The residential area is likely to expand more than three times with rise inpopulation.

Drivers of change
Population growth– The longer perspective and various estimates indicate that the city
would grow around 3.5 million by 2021.
790

800

Households (in thousands)

•

700
570

600
500
405
400
300

287

200
10002000

2010

2020

2030

Drivers of change•

Changing occupational pattern– The occupation in tertiary sector has grown from 64% in 1971 to 87%
2001.
– The distribution of workers in secondary sector has moved up from 33%
to 36% in 1991 which saw steep decline to 15% in 2001.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%
1971

Tertiary Sector

Source: NRS, 2002

1991

Secondary Sector

2001

Primary Sector

Drivers of change•

Vehicular growth in two decades– In last two decades the total motor vehicles have grown more than threetimes.
– Two wheelers registered growth from 79% in 1987-88 to 94% in 200304.

45000040000035000030000025000020000015000010000050000
0Year 1985
Two- wheelers

Year 1985
Cars/Taxi

Year 1995

Year 2002

Autos/ TempoGoods Carriages

Year 2004
Buses

Source: Road Transport Office, Bhopal, Ministry of Road Transport, Government of Madhya Pradesh

Year 2005

Tractors/ Others

Drivers of Change• Fuel consumption is growing with rising human andvehicular population

PeriodPetrol(Kilo lit)

Diesel(Kilo lit)

LPG
(no. of cylinders)

2003-04

31300

38400

3608000

2004-05

33100

40900

3800000

2005-06

34900

42700

3903000

Source: Department of Civil Supplies, Government of M. P.

Generic Process for LCS Actions
Assessing Present Sectoral
GHG Contributions
from a City

Identification ofthe Sectroal
reduction potentialPresentStresses

PolicyPriorities
FutureChallenges

PrescriptionforAction

Monitoringand
Evaluation of Actionsfor
externalities

Targets andStandards

Feed back toother sectors

The Scenarios• Business As Usual (BAU) scenario– The present trend in Bhopal city has been considered with existing
technology in both residential and transport sector with prevailing
economic and demographic trends. The BAU scenario for future energy
consumption and emissions projection in Bhopal city envisages thecontinuum of present government policies, and capture forecast forvarious economic, demographic, land use and energy use indicators.

• Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenario– For analysing the possibilities of reducing the GHG emissions in future asustainable development future scenario is drawn here for Bhopal citythat is expected take it towards Low Carbon Society. the energy
consumption trajectory / emissions trajectory in residential and transport
sector in Bhopal that would result from aggressive policies to promotedemand side management, energy efficiency, development of renewableenergy, and other policies to promote sustainable development

BAU: Fuel mix in Transport sector
87

Peta Joule654
32102000

2010

Gasoline

Heavy OilYear

Natural Gas

2020

Diesel2030

Electricity• Total fuel consumption grows by 4 times• Petrol and Diesel together constitute 90% of the fuel mix Yr 2000
• Share of petrol (Gasoline) in transport fuel mix is likely to grow

BAU: Per Capita Carbon Emissions

1.4

CO2 emission (in tons)

1.2
10.8
0.6
0.4
0.202000

2010

2020

2030

Building Sector Studies• Assumptions– The energy consumption in built environment is primarily afunction of “Cooling” and “Heating” needs– Case Study Approach provides opportunity to study local
variations and developing suitable actions– Building Design: Form (shape), Orientation, Materials andTechnology play an important role

• Temperature change and electricity demand– Temperature data of the city analyzed for one year period– Seasonal variations in electricity consumption identified– Hourly temperature data and electricity consumption compared
and analyzed• Simulation– Double storey building considered with select parameters– Six alternate configurations analysed– Software used for simulating the building.

Emerging Findings: Temperature Effect

30.00
25.00

1500

20.00

1000

15.00
10.00

500

28 February
2008

13 February
2008

30 January
2008

17 December
2007

02 January
2008

0.00

30 November
2007

16 November
2007

05.00

Temperature Degree Centigrades

35.00

2000

Nov-DecJan-Feb

Date

Temperature
Series1

Electricity Consumption
Series2

Mar Apr May Jun at Zero hours

4500

30.00

3500

25.00

3000
2500

20.00

2000

15.00

1500

10.00

1000

5.00

500

29 May 2008

14 May 2008

0.00

28 April 2008

0Date

Electricity Consumption
Series2

Temperature
Series1

Temperature Degree Centigrades

35.00

4000

10 April 2008

•2500

17 March2008•Nov Dec Jan Feb at Zero hours

Electrical Consumption KwH•Temperature

Electricity Consumption

01 November
2007•

July-AugSept-Oct

Electrical Consumption KwH•Electricity consumption inbuildings is dependent on manyfactors.
It is necessary to eliminate theeffects of other influences tobring out the effect oftemperature.
Marked seasonality andperiodicity in electricity demand
Electricity consumption wellcorrelated with temperaturechange
The correlation is more
prominent during night hours
CDD and HDD analysis more
useful03 March2008•

March-AprMay-June

Emerging Findings: Simulation•••••

Building with longer axis north-southconsumes the highest energy
The most efficient orientation isobtained when longer axis is northeast to south-west
Energy consumption well correlatedwith temperature change
Highest energy consumption insummer months
Space cooling requires maximum
amount of energy
Suitable construction material orprovision of adequate insulating
material may further reduce energy
consumption

20000
15000
10000
50000Jan

Feb Mar Apr May JunJul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Space CoolHeat Reject.

Refrigeration

Space HeatHP Supp.

Hot WaterVent. FansPumps & Aux.

Ext. Usage

Misc. Equip.

Task Lights

Area Lights

Longer axis north-south
Electric Consumption (kWh)•Electric Consumption (kWh)

25000

25000
20000
15000
10000
50000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Space CoolHeat Reject.

Refrigeration

Space Heat

HP Supp.

Hot Water

Vent. Fans

Pumps & Aux.

Ext. Usage

Misc. Equip.

Task Lights

Area Lights

Longer axis north-east to south-west

Actions: Residential Sector•Shading– By planting shade trees outside west or east-facing windows– Install exterior shade screens with thicker weave.

•Lighting efficiency– Use of Compact fluorescent lamps use 25% to 33% less electricity as acomparable incandescent bulb and last 9 to 12 times longer.
– Solar energy systems like solar recharging units for backup and outdoors•

Hot water efficiency– Use of solar water heating systems in residential areas•

Improved Refrigeration and other energy efficient appliances– Using improved and high efficiency innovative appliances•

Demand-side management programmes– electric and gas companies have used programmes to reduce demand forenergy and consequently save on the cost of supplying energy.

Actions: Residential Sector•

Energy audit programmes– Conducting energy audits to evaluate the most cost effectiveimprovements.

•Fiscal Incentives– Loan, grants, and incentives programmes for energy conservation
measures•

Energy code for New buildings– Encourage or require increased installation of efficient lighting systems– Requirement of more efficient heating and cooling systems– Increase window insulating values and requirement of shading devices•

Harnessing renewable energy– Use of renewable energy sources to meet rapid growth of energy
demand, supporting economic development without increasingatmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Actions: Transport Sector••••••The cost-effectiveness of technology-specific policies: to be carefully
considered like banning certain vehicles or prohibiting traffic in certain areas.
Use of alternative fuels: vehicles using LPG/CNG emit considerably lessparticulate matter than conventional diesel.
Traffic management measures: such as coordination of traffic lights, zebra
crossings, side paths, left turns which yields significant economic benefits
because it decreases congestion and improves mobility.
Demand management: through provision of public transport, fiscal
measures, area wide licensing, pricing instruments such as differential pricing
for access, and preferential treatment of high-occupancy vehicles. Public
transport dedicated bus.
Use of non-motorized transport (NMT) mechanism: to be promoted bycurtailing motorization and elimination of impediments to NMT. Government
intervention, like introducing stringent parking restrictions and constructing
safe bicycle routes.
Inspection and maintenance of vehicles and retirement and scrapping;retirement and scrapping of old vehicles and improved maintenance.

Actions: Transport Sector••••••

Fiscal measures: Higher taxation on purchase of new vehicles and forpolluting fuels providing indirect incentive for penetration of cleaner fuels andtechnologies.
Equitable allocation of road space: Reserving lanes and corridors
exclusively for public transport and non-motorized modes of travel
Parking in city centres and commercial areas: Provision of planned
parking spaces away from busy commercial areas with park and ride facilities
Freight traffic management: Staggered freight and passenger traffic– By enforcing the use off-peak passenger travel times to move freight.
– By using and developing by-passes for the through traffic.
Private sector participation: for activities like the operation andmaintenance of parking facilities, certification facilities, repair
facilities, construction and management of terminal facilities, etc.
Public awareness and cooperation: To organise awareness campaigns on
the ill effects of the growing transport problems in urban areas with aim atencouraging individuals, families and communities to adopt “Green Travel
Habits”.

Barriers to LCS Pathways• No common generalized policies can bedeveloped, Individual solutions are needed eachof the city
• Success depends on the participation of local
government / people• Almost no awareness in smaller cities• Capacity building is slow and time taking• Good quality infrastructure and services arealmost always necessary that are alreadystressed• Development priorities may not be in line withLCS objectives• Economic implications are not easy to anticipate

Future Work• Context of Climate Change for Development actions• Linking LCS to future projects and services at city level• Changing the Building Code/ Standards– Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning• Attention to transportation and Infrastructure sector• Effect of financial mechanisms to provide incentives• Need for shared responses and awareness and capacity
building• Working-out specific local requirements and actions• Consultation and participation of the local governments
and policymakers

Thank You….