Crash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

DOT HS 813 561

1A Brief Statistical Summary

April 2024

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic
Fatalities in 2023
Summary

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for 2023 shows an estimated 40,990 people died in motor vehicle trafficcrashes, a decrease of about 3.6 percent as compared to 42,514 fatalities reported to have occurred in 2022, as shownin Table 1. The fourth quarter of 2023 represents the seventh consecutive quarterly decline in fatalities beginningwith the second quarter of 2022. Preliminary data reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) showthat vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 2023 increased by about 67.5 billion miles, or about a 2.1-percent increase.
Also shown in Table 1 are the fatality rates per 100 million VMT, by quarter. The fatality rate for 2023 decreased
to 1.26 fatalities per 100 million VMT, down from the reported rate of 1.33 fatalities per 100 million VMT in 2022.
For the NHTSA Regional differences, 8 of 10 Regions are estimated to have decreases in fatalities, and 9 of 10
Regions are estimated to have decreases in fatality rate per 100 million VMT in 2023 as compared to 2022. Also,
35 States are projected to have experienced decreases in fatalities. The fatality counts for 2022 and 2023 and theensuing percentage change from 2022 to 2023 will be further revised as the FARS final file for 2022 and the annual
report file for 2023 are available next year.
Table 1. Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Quarter, Full Year, and the Percentage Change From theCorresponding Quarter or Full Year in the Previous YearYear

1st Quarter(Jan–Mar)

2nd Quarter(Apr–Jun)

3rd Quarter(Jul–Sep)

4th Quarter(Oct–Dec)

Total(Full Year)

Fatalities and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Quarter and Total From the Previous Year2013

7,166 [-4.7%]

8,207 [ -4.7%]

9,024 [ -1.6%]

8,496 [ +0.2%]

32,893 [ -2.6%]

2014

6,856 [-4.3%]

8,179 [ -0.3%]

8,799 [ -2.5%]

8,910 [ +4.9%]

32,744 [ -0.5%]

2015

7,370 [ +7.5%]

8,823 [ +7.9%]

9,805 [ +11.4%]

9,486 [ +6.5%]

35,484 [ +8.4%]

2016

8,154 [ +10.6%]

9,563 [ +8.4%]

10,078 [ +2.8%]

10,011 [ +5.5%]

37,806 [ +6.5%]

2017

8,301 [ +1.8%]

9,460 [ -1.1%]

10,081 [ +0.0%]

9,631 [ -3.8%]

37,473 [ -0.9%]

2018

8,203 [-1.2%]

9,323 [ -1.4%]

9,934 [ -1.5%]

9,375 [ -2.7%]

36,835 [ -1.7%]

20197,832 [-4.5%]

9,193 [ -1.4%]

9,994 [ +0.6%]

9,336 [ -0.4%]

36,355 [ -1.3%]

2020

7,901 [ +0.9%]

9,164 [ -0.3%]

11,358 [ +13.6%]

10,584 [ +13.4%]

39,007 [ +7.3%]

2021

8,906 [+12.7%]

11,149 [+21.7%]

11,828 [ +4.1%]

11,347 [ +7.2%]

43,230 [ +10.8%]2022

9,515 [ +6.8%]

10,450 [ -6.3%]

11,588 [ -2.0%]

10,961 [ -3.4%]

42,514 [ -1.7%]2023†

8,935 [ -6.1%]

10,395 [ -0.5%]

11,160 [ -3.7%]

10,500 [ -4.2%]

40,990 [ -3.6%]

U.S. Department of Transportation
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and AnalysisCrash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

Year

1st Quarter(Jan–Mar)

2nd Quarter(Apr–Jun)

2013

1.04

1.07

2014

0.99

2015
2016

2

3rd Quarter(Jul–Sep)

4th Quarter(Oct–Dec)

Total(Full Year)

1.17

1.16

1.10

1.03

1.11

1.17

1.08

1.03

1.08

1.20

1.21

1.15

1.11

1.16

1.23

1.27

1.19

2017

1.12

1.13

1.21

1.20

1.17

2018

1.10

1.11

1.18

1.15

1.14

2019

1.05

1.09

1.18

1.14

1.11

2020

1.08

1.43

1.44

1.42

1.34

2021

1.28

1.38

1.41

1.42

1.38

2022

1.29

1.28

1.38

1.37

1.33

2023†

1.18

1.25

1.30

1.29

1.26

Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT†2023 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.

Sources: Fatalities: 2013–2021 FARS Final File, 2022 FARS Annual Report File (ARF).
VMT: FHWA December 2023 Traffic Volume Trends (TVT) for 2022 and 2023 VMT.

Figure 1 shows the historical trend of the percentage change every quarter from the same quarter in the previousyear, going back to 1980 (NHTSA has fatality data since 1975). The shading in the chart shows the years when
there were significant numbers of consecutive quarters with increases/declines as compared to the corresponding
quarters of the previous years. The declines during the early 1980s and 1990s lasted 11 consecutive quarters, while
the most recent decline occurred over 17 consecutive quarters ending in the second quarter of 2010. More recently,
the significant increases in fatalities occurred over 10 consecutive quarters ending after the first quarter of 2017. Inaddition, fatalities increased 7 consecutive quarters beginning with the third quarter of 2020, until the 6.3-percent
decline seen in the second quarter of 2022. The third and fourth quarter of 2020 and the first and especially thesecond quarter of 2021 showed significant increases in fatalities as compared to the corresponding quarters of 2019and 2020. The percentage increase in the second quarter of 2021 is actually the highest quarterly percentage increasein FARS data recorded history. The fourth quarter of 2023 represents the seventh quarterly decline in fatalities
beginning with the second quarter of 2022.
Figure 1. Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter as Compared to the Fatalities in theSame Quarter During the Previous Year
25%20%15%

1981 Q2
to1983 Q4(11 Quarters)

1990 Q4
to1993 Q2(11 Quarters)

2006 Q2
to2010 Q2(17 Quarters)% Changes

10%5%0%-5%2014 Q4
to2017 Q1(10 Quarters)-10%-20%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023-15%2020 Q3
to2022 Q1(7 Quarters)

Sources: 1980–2021 FARS Final File, 2022 FARS ARF, 2023 statistical projections.

U.S. Department of Transportation
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis

Crash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

3The quarterly projections of fatalities, fatality rates, and VMT are further split into monthly estimates for 2022 and2023, as shown in Table 2. In 2023 both fatalities and the fatality rate per 100 million VMT show decreases in all
months except for April, which showed an increase, as compared to the corresponding month in 2022.
Table 2. Fatalities, VMT, Fatality Rate by Month or Quarter in 2023, and the Percentage Change in
Fatalities and VMT From the Corresponding Month or Quarter in 2022
1st Quarter
YearJanFebMar

2nd Quarter
Total

AprMayJun

3rd Quarter
Total

JulAugSep

4th Quarter
Total

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Fatalities in 2023 and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Month and Quarter From 2022
2022† 3,199 2,987 3,329 9,515 3,186 3,656 3,608 10,450 3,856 3,846 3,886 11,588 3,973 3,503 3,485 10,961
2023†

3,035 2,875 3,025 8,935 3,365 3,550 3,480 10,395 3,685 3,760 3,715 11,160 3,815 3,330 3,355 10,500-5.1% -3.7% -9.1% -6.1% 5.6% -2.9% -3.5% -0.5% -4.4% -2.2% -4.4% -3.7% -4.0% -4.9% -3.7% -4.2%2022†

1.35 1.29 1.22 1.29 1.23 1.29 1.30 1.28 1.37 1.35 1.41 1.38 1.42 1.35 1.35 1.37
236.1 231.1 271.9 739.1 258.0 282.7 277.1 817.8 282.0 284.3 275.6 841.9 280.7 258.7 258.0 797.4

Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT/VMT (in Billion) and Percentage Change in VMT1.22 1.22 1.11 1.18 1.30 1.23 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.34 1.30 1.34 1.26 1.27 1.292023† 249.2 235.5 273.7 758.4 258.3 289.7 285.6 833.6 289.9 290.9 278.1 858.9 284.2 265.2 263.7 813.1
5.5% 1.9% 0.7% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 3.1% 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%†2022 FARS ARF and 2023 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.

Sources: VMT: FHWA December 2023 TVT for 2022 and 2023 VMT.

Regional Differences

The statistical procedures used in these projections were generated for each NHTSA administrative Region andwere collated to create the national estimate. This allows for the comparison of Regional estimates in 2023 with thereported 2022 counts. Figure 2 shows the percentage change in estimated fatalities in 2023 from the reported
fatalities in 2022 by NHTSA Region; 8 of the 10 Regions experienced decreases. Figure 3 shows the comparisonof the estimated fatality rate per 100 million VMT in 2023 with the reported fatality rate per 100 million VMT in2022, by NHTSA Region; 9 of 10 Regions presented decreases. These estimates by NHTSA Region shown inFigures 2 and 3 are subject to change as the FARS final file for 2022 and the annual report file for 2023 are available
next year.

U.S. Department of Transportation
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis

Crash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

4Figure 2. Percentage Change in Estimated Fatalities in 2023 From Reported 2022 Fatality
Counts, by NHTSA Region-15%
Region15%Region
10-4%Region
2-4%Region
5-5%Region
8-7%Region
9-4%Region
71%Region
3-4%Region
4-4%Region
6Sources: 2022 FARS ARF and 2023 statistical projections. Puerto Rico is not included in Region 2.

Figure 3. Comparison of Estimated Fatality Rate in 2023 With Reported Fatality Rate in 2022, byNHTSA Region
Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT2022

2023

2.0
1.53

1.5
1.0

1.32 1.30
0.89

1.57

1.44

1.46

1.07 1.03

1.06 0.99

1.32

1.25 1.29 1.20

1.46

1.42
1.33 1.38

0.71

0.5
0.0

123456NHTSA Region

78910Source: FHWA December 2023 TVT for 2022 and 2023 VMT. Puerto Rico is not included in Region 2.

State Differences

Given the significant interest in the traffic safety community in estimated changes at the State level to assess
emerging trends, NHTSA has developed a methodology in the third quarter of 2022 to generate such State-level
estimates based on the most recent distribution of the fatalities by State in a NHTSA Region and the month (seeData and Methodology section for more details). Table 3 shows the comparison of each State’s estimate in 2023
with the reported fatality counts in 2022 and the percentage change in 2023 from 2022; 35 States are projected toU.S. Department of Transportation
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis

Crash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

5

have experienced decreases in fatalities in 2023 as compared to 2022, while 15 States, the District of Columbia, andPuerto Rico are projected to have had increases in fatalities. Also, the estimates of the fatality rate per 100 million
VMT by State in 2022 and 2023 are presented in Table 3 of this report. These estimates by State shown in Table 3
are subject to change as the FARS final file for 2022 and the annual report file for 2023 are reported, and as FHWA
finalizes the State VMT estimates for 2022 and 2023.
Table 3. Estimated Fatalities in 2023, and the Percentage Change in Estimated Fatalities From theReported Fatalities in 2022, by State. The States’ Estimates of the Fatality Rate per 100 VMT in2022 and 2023 Are Also Presented
StateAlabama

Fatalities
Percent
2022
2023 Change
988
974
-1.4%

Fatality Rate
2022
1.38

2023
1.24

StateNebraska

Fatalities
Percent
2022
2023 Change
244231 -5.3%

Fatality Rate
2022
1.15

2023
1.08

Alaska82

57-30.5%

1.50

0.98

Nevada

416

389

-6.5%

1.50

1.40

Arizona

1302

1315

1.0%

1.71

1.69

New Hampshire146

129 -11.6%

1.10

0.94

Arkansas

643

609

-5.3%

1.67

1.56

New Jersey

685

615 -10.2%

0.91

0.78

California

4428

4013

-9.4%

1.40

1.26

New Mexico

466

407 -12.7%

1.74

1.46

Colorado

764

720

-5.8%

1.42

1.30

New York

1175

1111

-5.4%

1.02

0.97

Connecticut359

322-10.3%

1.21

1.07

North Carolina

1630

1653

1.4%

1.37

1.36

Delaware162

137-15.4%

1.64

1.36

North Dakota

98

106

8.2%

1.07

1.11

D.C.

32

45

40.6%

0.94

1.35

Ohio

1275

1242

-2.6%

1.15

1.08

Florida

3530

3436

-2.7%

1.55

1.47

Oklahoma

710

697

-1.8%

1.59

1.53

Georgia

1797

1638

-8.8%

1.39

1.30

Oregon

601

589

-2.0%

1.64

1.58

Hawaii116

94-19.0%

1.13

0.90

Pennsylvania

1179

1229

4.2%

1.18

1.16

Idaho

215

277

28.8%

1.12

1.40

Rhode Island

52

72

38.5%

0.69

0.89

Illinois

1268

1255

-1.0%

1.22

1.23

South Carolina

1094

1028

-6.0%

1.85

1.70

Indiana949

895-5.7%

0.99

1.08

South Dakota

137

141

2.9%

1.35

1.43

Iowa

338

376

11.2%

1.03

1.12

Tennessee

1314

1339

1.9%

1.58

1.56

Kansas

410

388

-5.4%

1.31

1.21

Texas

4408

4294

-2.6%

1.52

1.41

Kentucky

744

828

11.3%

1.55

1.65

Utah

319

280 -12.2%

0.93

0.80

Louisiana

906

802

-11.5%

1.60

1.42

Vermont

76

69

-9.2%

1.07

0.97

Maine

182

135

-25.8%

1.24

0.89

Virginia

1008

915

-9.2%

1.23

1.10

Maryland

564

610

8.2%

0.99

1.05

Washington

733

813

10.9%

1.25

1.36

Massachusetts

434

348

-19.8%

0.76

0.56West Virginia

264

267

1.1%

1.72

1.64

Michigan

1124

1040

-7.5%

1.17

1.04

Wisconsin

596

584

-2.0%

0.90

0.87

Minnesota

444

418

-5.9%

0.77

0.71

Wyoming

134

144

7.5%

1.44

1.34

Mississippi

703

715

1.7%

1.76

1.76

U.S. Total*

-3.6%

1.33

1.26

Missouri

1057

993

-6.1%

1.33

1.23

Puerto Rico

11.4%

––

Montana

213

206

-3.3%

1.58

1.49

42,514 40,990
271

302

*Puerto Rico is not included.
Sources: 2022 FARS ARF and 2023 statistical projections.
VMT: FHWA December 2023 TVT for 2022 and 2023 VMT. Traffic Volume Trends for Puerto Rico is not available.

Discussion

During the COVID-19 pandemic there were marked increases in fatalities and the fatality rate per 100 million VMTin 2020. The increased trend of fatalities in 2020 have continued into 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. The second,
third, and fourth quarters of 2022, and all 4 quarters of 2023 have experienced a decline in fatalities after 7
consecutive quarters of year-to-year increases in fatalities, since the third quarter of 2020. The increased trend ofthe fatality rate per 100 million VMT in 2020 has continued into the first quarter of 2021, decreased in the second
U.S. Department of Transportation
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NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis

Crash●Stats: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023

6and the third quarters of 2021, and increased again in the first quarter of 2022. There was a decrease in the second,third, and fourth quarters of 2022, and in all 4 quarters of 2023. NHTSA is continuing to gather and finalize dataon crash fatalities for 2022 and 2023 using information from police crash reports and other sources. The Final Filefor 2022 as well as the Annual Report File for 2023 will be available in in the early part of 2025 that usually resultsin the revision of fatality totals and the ensuing fatality rates and percentage changes.

Data and Methodology

The data used in this analysis come from several sources: NHTSA’s FARS, Early Notification (EN) data, andMonthly Fatality Counts (MFC) (the EN and MFC data are not available to the public); and from FHWA’s VMTestimates. FARS is a census of fatal traffic crashes in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. To
be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motor vehicle traveling on a trafficway and must result in the death ofat least one person (occupant of a vehicle or a nonoccupant) within 30 days of the crash. FARS final files from 2003
to 2021 and the FARS annual report file in 2022 are used to obtain the monthly fatality counts. The EN program isdesigned as an Early Fatality Notification System to capture fatality counts from States more rapidly and provide
near-real-time notification of fatality counts from all jurisdictions reporting to FARS. The MFC data provide
monthly fatality counts by State through sources that are independent from the EN or FARS systems. MFCs fromJanuary 2003 up to December 2023 are used. MFCs are reported midmonth for all prior months of the year. To
estimate the traffic fatality counts for 2023, the time series cross-section regression procedure was applied to analyze
the data with both cross-sectional values (by NHTSA Region) and time series (by month), to model the relationshipamong FARS, MFC, and EN, the details of which are available in a Research Note (Statistical Methodology toMake Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, Report No. DOT HS 811 123). Furthermore, after theprojected fatality counts for NHTSA Region r and the month m (F_Estmr) are obtained, the estimated fatality counts
for a State st in Region r and the month m (F_Estst|mr) are calculated. Each State receives a proportion of the projectedfatality counts for the Region using the most recent relative proportion of fatalities in each State st for Region r andmonth m found in the Early Notification data. This can be expressed as F_Estst|mr = (Fst|mr /∑all States in r Fst|mr) ×
F_Estmr , where Fst|mr is the latest fatal count in the Early Notification data for State st in Region r and month m.
That is, the inflation rate for all States within a region is assumed to be the same as the inflation rate of that region.
For example, the estimated motor vehicle traffic fatalities for Arizona in Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii)
and the month m is: F_EstAZ|m9 = (FAZ|m9 /(FAZ|m9 + FCA|m9 + FHI|m9)) × F_Estm9.
The methodology used to generate the national, regional, and State-level estimates for 2023 is the same as the oneused by NHTSA to project the motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first nine months of 2023 (Early Estimates ofMotor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Nine Months [January–September] of 2023, Report No. DOT HS 813530).

The suggested APA format citation for this document is:
National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2024, April). Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities in 2023
(Crash•Stats Brief Statistical Summary. Report No. DOT HS 813 561). National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration.

For questions regarding the information presented in thisreport, please contact NCSARequests@dot.gov. ThisCrash•Stats and other general information on traffic
safety can be found at https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/.
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