ᐔᚑ23ᐕ 7᦬25ᣣ⥄ὼㆮ↥䈚䉏䈫䈖䇸⑼ቇᢎቶ䇹⥄Ꮖ⚫੺• ᚲዻ䋺䋨⁛䋩᳓↥✚ว⎇ⓥ䉶䊮䉺䊷ਛᄩ᳓↥⎇ⓥᚲ
→ ␹ᄹᎹ⋵ᮮᵿᏒ䈮䈅䉍䉁䈜䇯࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ䈫⍮ᐥ䈱᳓↥ᬺ• ኾ㐷䋺 ᳓↥᡽╷→ ᜬ⛯น⢻䈭Ṫᬺ䈫↢ᘒ♽䈱㑐ଥ䉕⎇ⓥ䈚䈩䈇䉁䈜䇯• ർᶏ㆏䉇⍮ᐥ䈫䈱䈎䈎䉒䉍䋺→ ⍮ᐥ਎⇇ㆮ↥⑼ቇᆔຬળᶏၞ䊪䊷䉨䊮䉫䊶䉫䊦䊷䊒䇮ർᶏ㆏ᄢቇቴຬಎᢎ᝼䇯’㊁ శ℉ 䋨䉁䈐䈱 䉂䈧䈢䈒䋩

2਎⇇䈱䇮ㆊ෰160ᐕ䈱᳇᷷ᄌൻ੹ᣣ䈱䈍䈲䈭䈚
1. ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ䈫䈲䋿
2. ⍮ᐥ䈱᳓↥ᬺ䈫࿾ၞ䈱᥵䉌䈚䈻䈱ᓇ㗀

3. 䉁䈫䉄3ᣣᧄ䈱ㆊ෰110ᐕ䈱᳇᷷ᄌൻ᳇⽎ᐡ䊖䊷䊛䊕䊷䉳䉋䉍

4ㇺᏒ೎䈱᳇᷷ᄌൻ

䊶䋱䋸䋹䋸ᐕ䈮᳇᷹᷷ⷰ䈱⛔⸘䈏ᆎ䉁䈦䈩એ᧪䇮
TOP5䈲䈜䈼䈩䋱䋹䋹䋰ᐕઍએ㒠䇯᳇⽎ᐡ䊖䊷䊛䊕䊷䉳䉋䉍5᳇⽎ᐡ䊖䊷䊛䊕䊷䉳䉋䉍

6䇸౉ቇᑼ䈱⧎䇹 䈏 䇸තᬺᑼ䈱⧎䇹䈮䋨㐿⧎䈏ᣧ䈒䈭䈦䈢䋩᷷ᥦൻ䈱ᓇ㗀䈫ᕁ䉒䉏䉎ౕ૕⊛䈭଀䋨᳓⎇䉶䊮䉺䊷䋨2011䋩䇮ⅣႺ⋭䋨2010䋩䇮↥⚻ᣂ⡞䋨2008䋭2009䋩╬䋩7ේᢱ☨䋨ጊ↰㍪䋩䈏ዊ☸ൻ䈚ຠ⾰䉅ૐਅ䇯ᣏ┙䈤䋨තᬺ䋩ᣂ䈚䈇಴ળ䈇䋨౉ቇ䋩౻䈱㝼䈱ᣨ䈲ㆃ䈒䋨䊙䉻䉟䇮䉰䊣䊥䇮䊍䊤䊜䈭䈬䋩

uoya.co.jp

plaza.rakuten.co.jp

katouke5goody2shoes.blog49.fc2.com

ᄐ䈱㝼䈱ᣨ䈲㐳䈒䋨䉝䊅䉯䇮䊙䉮䉧䊧䉟䈭䈬䋩
nihonshu-shopping.com

blog.amanosake.com
houraisen.co.jp

funazushi.biz

r.tabelog.com

᳗ਭಓ࿯䈱ਅ㒢䈏25ᐕ䈪300䊜䊷䊃䊦਄᣹30ᐕ㑆䈪䉟䊨䊊䉦䉣䊂䈱
⚃⪲䈏7.3ᣣㆃ䈒cocolo-gocolo.cocolog-nifty.com
asahi.com

pengintai.naturum.ne.jp࿯૒ḧ䈱䉦䉳䊜䈏ᶖᄬ䈚䇮ᶏ䈮䈲䈬䉖䈭ᄌൻ䈏䋿
weblio.jp੝ᾲᏪ䈱ᶏ⮺䋨䊐䉺䉣䊝䉪䋩䈏᜛ᄢ
13

㜞᳓᷷䈪
ᄢ㊂ᢣᱫ䉇
ઃ⌕‛໧㗴䈏
㗫⊒plaza.rakuten.co.jpᶏ䈏䈇䈧䉁䈪䉅䈅䈢䈢䈎䈇䈢䉄䇮Ṫᦼ䈏ㆃ䈒䈭䈦䈢
blog.livedoor.jp

saijogt.exblog.jp

blog.sagatic.com

hokkehokke.blog87.fc2.com

IPCC╙4ᰴႎ๔ᦠ䋨2007䋩੹ᣣ䈱䈍䈲䈭䈚䋪࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ䈲䇮⇼䈉૛࿾䈏䈭䈇䋪䋲䋰਎♿ਛ⋚એ㒠䈱᳇᷷਄᣹䈱ේ࿃䈲᷷ቶലᨐ䉧䉴䈱น⢻ᕈ䈏㕖Ᏹ䈮㜞䈇

1. ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ䈫䈲䋿2. ⍮ᐥ䈱᳓↥ᬺ䈫࿾ၞ䈱᥵䉌䈚䈻䈱ᓇ㗀

3. 䉁䈫䉄᷷ᥦൻ䈲䉅䈉ᆎ䉁䈦䈩䈍䉍䇮࿁ㆱ䈪䈐䈭䈇䇯17

18⍮ᐥ๟ㄝ䈱ᶏᵗⅣႺ䈱ᄌൻ⍮ᐥ๟ㄝ䈱ᶏᵗⅣႺ䈱ᄌൻ• ✂⿛࿾ᣇ᳇⽎บ䈮䈍䈔䉎ㆊ෰64ᐕ㑆䈱ᵹ᳖ᦼ㑆• ✂⿛࿾ᣇ᳇⽎บ䈮䈍䈔䉎ㆊ෰64ᐕ㑆䈱ᵹ᳖ᦼ㑆
120

100

100

80

80
ᣣ

140

120

ᣣ

140

40

20

20

0

0
1946
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60

40

1946
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60

Data : ᳇⽎ᐡᄢ䈐䈭ᄌൻ䈭䈚ㆊ෰䈮䉅Ⴧട䋿䉴䊦䊜䉟䉦

Kaeriyama (‘07)ࠪࡠࠩࠤ Kishi et al (‘10)

䊙䉻䊤Sakurai (‘07)

䉴䉬䊃䉡䉻䊤䉰䊮䊙

Ito (‘07)ࡃࡈࡦ࠙࠾䉨䉼䉳ࠝ࠾ࠦࡦࡉ

䊅䊙䉮
Makino(‘11)ᤘ๺20ᐕઍ䈮䈲䇮⟜⥓䈪䊆䉲䊮䈱⼾Ṫ䈏䈅䉍䉁䈚䈢䇯

Sakurai(‘07)

Sakurai (‘07)

䊆䉲䊮 Ito (‘07)

20⍮ᐥඳ‛㙚(2001)

ᤘ๺30ᐕઍ䈮䈲䇮ᢳ㉿䈪䉟䉦䈱⼾Ṫ䈏䈅䉍䉁䈚䈢䇯䊑䊥䉪䊨䊙䉫䊨䈖䉏䈎䉌䊙䉟䊪䉲䈏Ⴧ䈋䈠䈉䈪䈜䋣䋨ᦼᓙ䋩ⷰኤ䈱ᤨ㑆䉴䉬䊷䊦䈏ᄢಾ• ⍴ᦼ⊛䈭 ᝄേ:
1-2 ᐕ• ਛᦼ⊛䈭ᄌേ䊶䊧䉳䊷䊛䉲䊐䊃:
5-10 ᐕ• 㐳ᦼ⊛䈭േะ䋨䊃䊧䊮䊄䋩:
30-50 ᐕ23

SST anomaly in August (͠͠)ᷫዋ䋿Data : ᳇⽎ᐡ

19Annual change of SST anomalies in August in water around
Japan (1985-2010)(Press release , Japan Meteorological Agency, Sep. 9, 2010)24Ⴧ䈋䉎⾗Ḯ䉕᦭ല䈮૶䈍䈉䋣᳓↥⾗Ḯ䈮䈫䈦䈩ᄢಾ䈭䈖䈫• 䈢䈣䈚䇮ណ䈦䈩ᄁ䉎䈣䈔䈪䈲䇮䉅䈉䈎䉍䉁䈞䉖䇯• ᣣ䇱䈱ᠲᬺ䈫⑼ቇ⊛䊝䊆䉺䊥䊮䉫䈮䉋䉍䇮ᄌൻ䉕Ᏹ䈮ⷰኤ䈜䉎䈖䈫䈏ᄢ੐䋨႐ᚲ䈱⒖േ䉅฽䉄䈩䋩䇯• Ⴧ䈋䈠䈉䈭⾗Ḯ (䉴䊦䊜䉟䉦䇮䊆䉲䊮䇮䊑䊥䈭䈬䋩䈮䈧䈇䈩䈲䇮Ⴧ䈋ᆎ䉄䉎ᤨ䈱⾗Ḯ▤ℂ䈏㕖Ᏹ䈮ᄢಾ䈪䈜䇯䈖䉏䉌䈱⾗Ḯ䈲䇮৻ᤨ⊛䈭䊗䊷䊅䉴䈪䈲䈅䉍䉁䈞䉖䇯዁᧪䈱⍮ᐥ᳓↥ᬺ䉕ᡰ䈋䉎ਥⷐ䈭⾗Ḯ䈮䈭䉎䈎䉅䈚䉏䈭䈇䈎䉌䈪䈜䇯• 䈇䈎䈮ᶖ⾌⠪䈮䉋䉐䈖䉖䈪䉅䉌䈉䈎䇮䈬䈉䉇䈦䈩㜞䈒ᄁ䉎䈎䇮䈬䈖䈮ᄁ䉎䈱䈎䇮䈭䈬䈱Ꮏᄦ䈏ᔅⷐ䇯• ୘䇱䈱ദജ䈫䈫䉅䈮䇮⚵ว䊶ㇱળ䈪䈱ข⚵䈏㊀ⷐ2526

ᷫ䉎น⢻ᕈ䈱䈅䉎䉲䊨䉱䉬䈲䊶䊶ᢥൻ䈫䈚䈩䉅㊀ⷐ• ⃻࿷䈱䉲䊨䉱䉬䈲䇮䈾䈫䉖䈬䈏⒳⧣᡼ᵹ䈘䉏䈢䉅䈱䇯䈠䈱ㆮવ⊛ᄙ᭽ᕈ䈲ૐ䈒䇮↥ෆᦼ㑆䈲⍴䈇䇯䉋䈦䈩䇮⥄ὼ↥ෆ䊶ቐൻ䉕ଦㅴ䈜䉎䉋䈉䇮ⅣႺ䈱ୃᓳ䉕䈜䈜䉄䉎䈖䈫䈏㊀ⷐ (᳗↰ 2011,• ർᶏ㆏䈮䈫䈦䈩㊀ⷐ䈭䉝䉟䊇ᢥൻ䈪䈲䇮㞱䈲␹䈱㝼䇯• 㞱䉕቞䉎䈖䈫䈲䇮ᢥൻ䉕቞䉎䈖䈫䈮䉅䇯

Nakamura & Komiyama 2010).

ਛ᧛ዊችጊ䈱౮⌀2728

૑䉁䈇䈻䈱ᓇ㗀• บ㘑䈱ㅴ〝䉅ർ䈮⒖േ䋨Scaife et al.2011䋩→ർᶏ㆏䈮䉅บ㘑䈏᧪䉎ᕟ䉏䇯• ᵩ᳓䉇ᴡᎹ᳚Ử䈱ෂ㒾ᕈ䈲㜞䉁䉎

Nakamura & Komiyama (2010)29ㇺᏒ೎䈱ᶏ㕙᳓૏䈱ᄌൻ᳇⽎ᐡ䇸᳇⽎ᄌേ⋙ⷞ䊧䊘䊷䊃2004䇹30• ⍮ᐥ䈪䈲䇮ᴪጯ✢䈎ᴡᎹᴪ䈇䈮䈾䈫䉖䈬䈱↸᳃䈏૑䉖䈪䈇䉎䇯䊊䉱䊷䊄䊙䉾䊒䈫ㆱ㔍⸘↹䈱૞ᚑ䋨䈇䈙䈫䈇䈉䈫䈐䈬䈉䈜䉎䈎䈱⸘↹䋩• ᷷ᥦൻ䈱ㅴⴕ䈮ᔕ䈛䈩䇮ቯᦼ⊛䈮ᡷቯ䈜䉎䈖䈫䈏ᄢಾ䈪䈜䇯

Google earth 䈱౮⌀© 2011 Google• 䈖䉏䉌䈱㓸⪭䈱቟ో⏕଻䈏⛘ኻᔅⷐ.

31

32

Hazard map for flood (Shari town 2011)

Hazard map for high tide and tsunami䊶᷷ᥦൻ䈲䉅䈉ᆎ䉁䈦䈩䈍䉍䇮࿁ㆱ䈪䈐䈭䈇䇯→ ᷷ᥦൻ䉕ㆃ䉌䈞䉎䈫หᤨ䈮䇮ᄌൻ䈻䈱ㆡᔕ䈏ᄢಾ䇯੹ᣣ䈱䈍䈲䈭䈚䊶 㵰Ⴧ䈋ᆎ䉄䉎ᤨ㵱䈱⾗Ḯ▤ℂ䈏㕖Ᏹ䈮ᄢಾ䇯→ ৻ᤨ⊛䈭䊗䊷䊅䉴䈪䈲䈅䉍䉁䈞䉖䇯዁᧪䈱ᩇ䈪䈜䈱䈪䇮ᄢ੐䈮▤ℂ䈚䉁䈚䉊䈉䇯

1. ࿾⃿᷷ᥦൻ䈫䈲䋿
2. ⍮ᐥ䈱᳓↥ᬺ䈫࿾ၞ䈱᥵䉌䈚䈻䈱ᓇ㗀3. 䉁䈫䉄䊶䈢䈣ណ䈦䈩ᄁ䉎䈣䈔䈪䈲䇮䈅䉁䉍ఢ䈎䉍䉁䈞䉖䇯→ 䈇䈎䈮ᶖ⾌⠪䈮䉋䉐䈖䉖䈪䉅䉌䈉䈎䇮ᦨᄢ㒢䈮Ꮏᄦ䉕䈚䈩䇮⍮ᐥ䈱᳓↥‛䉕㜞䈒ᄁ䉍ㄟ䉖䈪䈒䈣䈘䈇䇯䊶ᴡᎹ᳚Ử䉇ᵩ᳓䊶㜞ầ䈱䊥䉴䉪䈲㜞䈒䈭䉍䉁䈜→ 䈇䈙䈫䈇䈉䈫䈐䈬䈉䈜䈼䈐䈎䇮䈱⸘↹䉕䉋䈒⺒䉖䈪⸠✵䈚䈩䈍䈐䉁䈚䉊䈉䇯33䈗ᷡ⡬ 䈅䉍䈏䈫䈉䈗䈙䈇䉁䈚䈢342007䌾8ᐕ䈱਎⇇㘩ᢱෂᯏ䈱႐ว
1. 䉦䊅䉻䇮䉥䊷䉴䊃䊤䊥䉝䉇䊨䉲䉝䈱ᐓ䈳䈧䉇ᵩ᳓䈭䈬䇮ᖡᄤ୥䈭䈬䈮䉋䉎↢↥㊂䈱ᷫዋ
2. ਄⸥䈱ᄤ୥䈭䈬䉕ේ࿃䈫䈚䈢ャ಴ⷙ೙䈫⾈䈇භ䉄
3. 䊋䉟䉥Άᢱ䈱㔛ⷐჇട䈮䉋䉎㘩ᢱ䈱䈢䉄䈱↢↥䈻䈱࿶ㄼ䈮ട䈋䇮ᣂ⥝࿖䋨䉟䊮䊄/ਛ࿖䈭䈬䋩䈮䈍䈔䉎㘩⡺㔛ⷐ䈱Ⴧട䈮䉋䉎㔛ⷐ䈱Ⴧട
4. 䊄䊦቟䇮ૐ㊄೑䇮ᛩᯏ⋡⊛䈱ขᒁ䈭䈬㊄ⲢᏒ႐䈮䈍䈔䉎ⷐ࿃35

5. ⢈ᢱ䉇ャㅍ⾌䈭䈬䈱↢↥䉮䉴䊃䉕࿶ㄼ䈜䉎⍹ᴤଔᩰ䈱਄᣹36ਛ↰䋨2010䋩䉕৻ㇱᡷ✬37