AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
NPIRIPS

Nakasone Yasuhiro

The Japan Institute of

Research Institute for

Peace InstituteInternational Affairs

Peace and Security(Secretariat)

Editorial Advisory Board:

No. 285

Akio Watanabe (Chair)
Ichiro Fujisaki
Masashi Nishihara
Kenichiro Sasae

2 February 2021

Editorial Committee:
Tsutomu Kikuchi
Fumiaki Kubo
Tsuyoshi Sunohara
Shujiro Urata andTomiko Ichikawa

A SECURITY POLICY FOR JAPAN TO
DEAL WITH CHINA’S ACTIVE STRATEGYBonji Ohara

Editor & Online Publisher:
Kenichiro Sasae
President, JIIA

・ China's national strategy is shifting from apassive to an active strategy, and its impact on
the security environment in the Indo-Pacificregion is increasing.
・ China is trying to create circumstances rather
than simply reacting to them. For example, it
has shifted from a strategy of avoiding US
pressure to a strategy of not allowing the US tointerfere. This is made possible by China'seconomic and military power.
・ In order to respond to China's attempts tochange the status quo by force, cooperation
among countries, centered on the alliance withthe US, is necessary. Japan should play amajor role in achieving this.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

China's national strategy is not necessarily focused on the Indo-Pacific region. However,it does have a significant impact on the security environment in the Indo-Pacific region.
The fact that China's national strategy is shifting from a passive to an active strategy
makes its impact even greater.
Strategies are designed to fill the gap between national goals and current
circumstances. Therefore, strategies are formulated to deal with the challenges faced
when a nation tries to achieve its national goals. In order to describe China's nationalgoals, we must start by considering the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
This is because China has an authoritarian political system ruled by the Communist
Party.
The CPC's goal is to continue its stable rule of China. To achieve this, one ofChina's national goals is to maintain the Communist Party's authority over the people,
and the means of achieving this goal is to develop the economy and gain a dominantposition in the international community. China's national goals remain the same, but thecircumstances surrounding China are changing, so it is only natural that its strategy willchange.

China's "Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)" is based on a 2012 article "'March Westward':
The Rebalancing of China's Geostrategy" insisting that China revise its geopoliticalstrategy in response to the lack of economic development in inland China and expected
US pressure.
China's national strategy was to develop trade between inland China andCentral Asia and expand its activities westward, thereby avoiding conflict with the US, inorder to overcome these challenges and achieve its national goals.
However, China's strategy is changing. A shift is being made from a passive
strategy focused on responding to current circumstances to an active strategy seeking
to mold circumstances to China's advantage. This has been made possible by China'seconomic and military power.
The fact that China has begun to adopt an active strategy has prompted
increased concern among Japan, the US, and other neighboring countries. Although
China's BRI began with a westward expansion of economic activities and military
operations to avoid conflict with the US, China is now actively trying to block USinterference.

http://www.jiia.or.jp/en/commentary2

AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

China's arms buildup and aggressive military operations to create a favorable situation
for itself is worsening the security environment in the Indo-Pacific region. Even if China
claims that it is trying to prevent the US from interfering, China's provocative military
operations as well as its seizure of reefs and rocks in the South China Sea (SCS) andconstruction of military facilities thereon are nothing but a threat to the security andinterests of neighboring countries.
China, which is inferior to the US in strategic nuclear power, is trying to build up
its intermediate-range nuclear weapons, which the US could not possess due to the INF
Treaty, block the US Navy with anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) and cruise missiles,
and even limit the US Navy's access to the Indian Ocean by controlling the SCS.
Furthermore, another Chinese objective in controlling the SCS is to guarantee
the finality of retaliatory attacks against the US. For China's nuclear-powered ballistic
missile submarines (SSBNs) deployed on Hainan Island, which is in the SCS, to safely
conduct their strategic patrols, they must eliminate US Navy anti-submarine warfare(ASW) operations from the SCS.

The US will not tolerate a nuclear strike on its own territory. Japan also cannot allow
military control of the SCS by any country. In its Defense White Paper 2020, theJapanese government expressed concern about the situation in the SCS whendescribing the changing security environment around Japan. The SCS, which connects
the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, is an important maritime transportation routefor Japan. Dividing the Indo-Pacific will have direct negative economic and security
impacts on Japan and other countries.
To avoid these negative impacts, Japan should strengthen its economic,diplomatic, and military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, including the SCS. It isdifficult, however, for Japan alone to maintain the "free and open" condition of thisregion. Strengthening the Japan-US alliance is vital to prevent China from changing thestatus quo by force.

Getting support for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) from other countries in theregion is also essential to ensure stability in this region. There are two multilateral
cooperation initiatives particularly important to achieve this goal. One is the quadrilateral
cooperation among Japan, the US, Australia and India, which share the same values
and respect for human rights. In the military sphere, such cooperation can cover thevast Indo-Pacific region.

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AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

Another important initiative is to make Southeast Asian countries an influential
and unified actor. An FOIP cannot be achieved without the cooperation of Southeast
Asian countries. It is important that these countries build their own capacity to maintainorder in the SCS, but a more important effort is developing the economy of theSoutheast Asian region. China cannot ignore Southeast Asia when trying to change thestatus quo in the SCS if that region is an influential economic actor.
On the other hand, it is difficult for Japan and the US to establish cooperative
relations with Southeast Asian countries, even if the US were simply to ask them forcooperation unilaterally. Although the quadrilateral military cooperation is vital, Japanalso should play a major role in this initiative to establish a cooperative regional networkby using its diplomatic and economic capabilities.

Bonji OHARA is Senior Fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

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