"CEAC Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on topics related to regional
cooperation and integration in East Asia, but they do
not represent the views of CEAC as an institution.

October 21, 2013

The Case for a Positive View of the state ofCurrent East Asia as in a “Shakedown Period”
By ISHIGAKI Yasuji
In recent months, very pessimistic views are often heard on the current situationin the East Asian region. Some experts even go to the extreme of arguing that territorial
disputes such as those relating to the Senkaku Islands and the South China Sea could any
moment ignite outbreaks of military clashes. I for one do not exclude possibilities of any
worst situation to be caused from those disputes. However, when we consider objectively
the overall situation in the region, I consider that a more positive view is fitting regarding
the current situation in the region for the following reasons.
In the first place, it should be admitted that the international relations in East Asia
at present have much to be improved in many areas, in particular, for instance, for more
opportunities of direct talks between political leaders, as seen in the relations between
Japan and China, Japan and South Korea, and between some ASEAN nations and China.
However, at the working levels bilateral relations among the countries of ASEAN+3 arefunctioning quite normally, including those between Japan, China, and South Korea. Also,
multilateral frameworks for regional cooperation among those ASEAN+3 countries havebeen working very well, and the regular summit meetings among them have consistently
been held smoothly.
Secondly, even with regard to the most sensitive relations among Japan, China,and South Korea, the institution of the permanent Secretariat for Trilateral Cooperation
which was established in Seoul in September 2011 to promote cooperation among them,has been functioning well. The former Japanese Ambassador to Austria Shigeo Iwataniassumed the office of Second Secretary‐General for a two‐year term on September 1 thisyear. succeeding to the first Secretary‐General Shin Bong‐kil of South Korea. The Secretariat
executes among others the task as necessary of holding the trilateral meetings on both
ministerial and Summit level of Japan, China, and South Korea.
Thirdly, the talks on territorial and other questions in the South China Sea started
in China in September in order to define the Code of Conduct to settle the disputes andease tensions between China and the member states of the ASEAN, including thePhilippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, and the said talks have been reported to be currently
makingsomeprogress.

Inparallelwiththosemoves,negotiations

fortheJapanese‐Chinese‐South Korean FTA and the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) of ASEAN+6 have been under way. Furthermore, such annual meetings
as the Network of East Asian Think‐tanks (NEAT) on the second track, and the East Asian
Forum on the 1.5th track were also held successfully this year, in Malaysia and Japan
respectively.
As mentioned above, the frameworks and the infrastructure of regional
cooperation in East Asia are as firmly as ever rooted and sound today, and we should notein particular that important economic negotiations, as well as regular intergovernmental
and second track dialogues are conducted as matters of business as usual without muchdelay and disruptions. Although in the trilateral relations among Japan, China, and South
Korea, there remains the fact that Chinese official vessels keep intruding Japanese
territorial waters, the Chinese authorities appear keeping such moves as anti‐Japanesemass rallies under control, and the Yasukuni issue has not developed into an issue of bigmagnitude.
Under the above circumstances, the governments and private business sectors inJapan and other Asia‐Pacific countries have been reconsidering to rectify hitherto excessive
dependence on China, and shifting investments to ASEAN markets. With regard to theflow of people, we also find a noteworthy change that the number of tourists visiting Japan
from ASEAN nations has recently been showing a marked increase. In terms of the overallbalance of power in ASEAN+3, these changes will provoke favorable trends that will
quietly bring about an “adjustment” effect of lowering or shifting excessive economic
dependence on China to other countries in Asia more evenly, for a “shakedown” towards
more desirable interdependence among nations in the region.
(This is an English translation of the article written by Mr. ISHIGAKI Yasuji, Delegate
for Japan to AALCO, as his personal view which originally appeared on the e-forum“Hyakka-Somei” of CEAC on September 23, 2013.)