SixthReport
SixthAssessment
Assessment
ReportWORKING GROUP III – MITIGATIONMITIGATION OF
OF CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGE

Key findings on mitigation from the IPCC AR6Synthesis Report
IPCC Symposium
Tokyo22 May 2023
Jim Skea, Co-Chair IPCC Working Group III[Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects]

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The Synthesis Report Narrative
Current Status and Trends
Long-Term Climate and Development Futures
Near-Term Responses in a Changing Climate+ Plans and challenges for AR7+ IPCC Workshop on the use of scenarios in AR6and subsequent assessments

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Current Status and Trends

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5°C could
soon be exhausted, and those for 2°C largely depletedSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Projected global emissions from NDCs makeit likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Emissions are distributed unevenly, both inthe present day and cumulatively since 1850

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Those who have generally contributed least
to climate change are most vulnerable

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Renewable electricity generation is increasingly
price-competitive and some sectors are electrifyingSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Long-Term Climate and Development Futures

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Global modelled pathways that limit warming to1.5°C reach net zero CO2 emissions around 2050

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The transition towards net zero CO2 will
have different pace across different sectors

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Near-Term Responses in a Changing Climate

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

There are multiple
opportunities forscaling up climate
action in the neartermSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Energy and AFOLU

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Demand sectors

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The range of demand-side GHG emission reduction
potential by 2050 is 40-70% in end-use sectors

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Carbon Dioxide Removal:
Can counterbalance hard-to-eliminate emissions

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Near term adaptation andmitigation options havemore synergies than tradeoffs with SustainableDevelopment Goals

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Higher mitigation investment flows required for all
sectors and regions to limit global warmingSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Plans and challenges for AR7

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Plans for the IPCC 7th Cycle•Elections in July 2023

•The cycle will last 5-7 years•The Bureau structure is essentially unchanged – 34 places, three WorkingGroups, regional quotas•

Further plenary before COP 28 to address plans for the 7th cycle•

There is already a commitment to a Special Report on Cities•

Links between the IPCC and UNFCCC cycles an issue (2nd Global Stocktake2028)•

Little prospect of three traditional Working Group reports or a Synthesis Reportby 2028

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Scientific Challenges for the IPCC 7th Cycle(personal view)•Attribution – can specific climate events be attributed to human influence (WG I)•

Understanding overshoot and the reduction of warming levels (all WGs)•

Further focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) (all WGs)

•Focus on implementation and actions in the near-term – barriers, enablers,
feasibility (WGs II and III)•

Just transition (social and economic impacts of implementation) (WGs II and III)

•Issues round Article 6 of the Paris Agreement - Market and Non-Market
Mechanisms (WG III)•

Border carbon adjustments (WG III)

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IPCC Workshop on the Use of Scenarios
in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Topics relevant for the scientific community
involved in modelling
1. Update and improve community scenario framework
2. Individual research projects and other MIPs

3. Regional and temporal resolution
4. Inclusivity
5. Assessment of scenarios
6. Integrated assessment models and modelling (IAM)
7. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) communities

8. Overshoot consideration
9. Scenario DatabaseSixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGERecommendations/conclusions for scientificcommunities not involved in modelling
1. Encourage plurality of scenario development approaches for mitigation andadaptation, including both modelled and non-modelled
2. Develop methods, information, and data for scenario assessment andclassification of local-level [bottom-up + non-modelling] scenarios to gain
complementary insights to quantified scenarios
3. Promote more diverse representation and inclusion in scenario, climate
modelling and IAV development and use
4. Help scenario efforts with developing a richer and more diverse set of narratives
and drivers
5. Data baselines production to complement literature gaps in sectors, regions andlocal level

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Recommendations for research funders
1. Participation/representation: increase the richness and the diversity of views
in models and scenarios by engaging a wider variety of researchers fromaround the world throughout the research cycle (conceptualisation,implementation, dissemination).
2. Capacity: direct funding to engage communities not currently/effectively
represented in scenario processes

3. Infrastructure: Increasing funding for data curation, including establishing,
maintaining, expanding, updating scenario relevant databases and supportingtools
4. Science of scenario assessments: There is a need for targeted funding on
the science and methodologies of assessing scenarios: e.g., not simply treating
scenario sets as statistical distributions, and combining qualitative andquantitative scenarios

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Recommendations for the IPCC
1. Provide and ensure early planning and guidance
2. Formulate ways of institutionalizing coordination
3. Embedding coordination in each step of the process

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Recommendations for communication of scenarios
1. Accessible IPCC explainers on scenarios

2. Guidance on Inclusive Co-developed Scenario Elaborations
3. Build and Cultivate a Network of Trusted Intermediaries toCommunicate Scenarios
4. Strengthen Institutionalized Science Communication Experts
throughout IPCC Process

Sixth Assessment Report
WORKING GROUP III – MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

THANK YOU!