High Speed Rail along the AhmedabadMumbai corridor
Impacts on energy and emissions
Sarbojit Pal
High Speed Rail Seminar, AhmedabadFebruary 11, 2013

Growth in passenger transport
sector in India• Very fast growth in passenger
transport activity (PKM)• 10 times growth observed since
1990
1,060 BPKM
(1990)

10,230 BPKM
(2010)• Growth drivers: population,economy, urbanization,
motorization
Source: Estimates by different Ministries and Planning Commission
Estimates are on higher side as compared to many other estimates

A handful of large urban centers are responsible for a major portion ofthis traffic growthIndia’s large urban
agglomerations
Delhi
Ghaziabad
JaipurLucknow
KanpurPatna

Ahmedabad
BhopalIndore

Vadodara
Surat

Thane

Kolkata• Already 8 urban centers have
populations greater than 5million people• By 2030

NagpurMumbai Pune
Hyderabad> 10 million– At least 6 ten million plus cities– 7 to 13 four million plus cities

Bangalore Chennai
Kochi> 5 million
Coimbatore

Large passenger mobility can be seen between such large cities acrossthe countryThrissur

Kochi

Map based on Census 2011 data

> 1 million

Originating passengers
for the Railways• Top 40 passenger originating
cities generate 51% of thetotal non-suburban traffic• Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata
alone generate 20% of the
Number of originating passengers
total traffic> 2 million
1 to 2 million
Kochi
Map based on PRS data for period: 01-SEP-09 TO 31-AUG-10

Originating passengers
for the Airlines• Top 10 passenger
originating cities generate
78% of the total traffic
Number of originating passengers• Delhi, Mumbai and> 1 million
Bangalore generate about
50% of the total traffic
Kochi
Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12

Identifying urbanpassenger corridors
Overlapping corridors
HSR Corridors identified by
ITPS-TERI Phase II study
HSR Corridors identified by
Ministry of Railways

Kochi
Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12• Distinct heavy passenger
use corridors emerge• Corridors identified by theITPS-TERI Phase II criterions
overlap
Number of originating passengers• Ahmedabad-Mumbai> 2 million rail
1 to 2 million rail
corridor feature across all> 1 million airstudies

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MOST DEVELOPED REGION IN INDIA• Corridor length: 491 km• Runs through the most urbanized states inIndia• Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Mumbai:
most populous metropolitan areas in India• Some of the highest per capita incomes• Historically connected through trade,business and culture
National, state and city level per capita incomes*

120

Thousands

1008060
40

200India

GujaratAhmedabadVadodaraSuratMaharashtra

Mumbai*Source; City Skyline Indicus Report

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
NATURE OF TRAFFIC

Corridor generated about 75 bpkm in 2011-12
Share of mobility along the corridor 2011-12
30%

30%

10%
30%

RailAirBusCar

Air registered a 37% growth rate followed by road(6%) and rail (5%) along this corridor(CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11)

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL TRAFFIC
Traffic on railways (PKM)• 6.2 million passengers travelled on

Higher3

reserved rail categories in 2011-12

MiddleLower• Growth of passenger kilometers on

various classes (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11)

Billions

2– Higher - 7.62%2110– Middle - 6.79%– Lower - 3.85%• Higher journey classes have higher leads(404km-373km-348km)

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12Class types combined:
Higher: 1A, 2A, EC; Middle: 3A, 3E, CC; Lower: SL, 2S

Fastest end to end travel time on
railways: 6h 25min

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES• Conducted a primary face to facepassenger survey on-board trains• 73% of the respondents were in theages between 21 and 40 years• Largely in private services (44%) or selfemployed (25%)• Highest share of total respondents in
the income band of Rs. 25-50,000

Age of respondents
50%

Middle

15%

20%
10%

4%

5%

3%

51-60

Over 60

0%
16-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

Occupation of respondents
3%

Lower

5%

Not disclose
Above 1,00,000

31%

30%

Shares of monthly incomes by class
Higher

42%

40%

3%

12%

Govt. Service

8%

Private Service

50,000-1,00,000

Self Employed

25,000-50,000

Unemployed

10,000-25,000
Less than 10,000
No Income25%

Student44%

Retired
Other0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES
Purpose of travel by respondents

Frequency of travel
1%

19%
12%

Business/Official
29%

45%

34%

Daily

Recreational

WeeklySocialMonthly

Education

YearlyOthers4%42%

Occasionally

11%

3%

• 45% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes• A large number of people were also traveling for social reasons• Most of the respondents were traveling on a monthly basis (42%) and aLarge shareof rail passengers surveyed were making this journey on alarge share occasionally (34%)

monthly basis and most of them were traveling on work

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
ROAD TRAFFIC• Car traffic (2011-12)– An average of 38,419 people traveled on
cars/vans/jeeps along the highways andexpressways everyday

NE 1– Vehicle occupancy of 3.42 persons* on the route• Bus traffic (2011-12)– About 8.5 million people traveled on intercity buses
NH 8Average leads of different transport modes (km)
CarBus157266434

AirRail360* RITES: Total Transport System Study on Traffic Flows & Modal Costs (Highways, Railways, Airways & Coastal Shipping),

VadodaraMumbai Exp.
(planned)

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES• Conducted face-to-face surveys at bus
terminals across four cities• Mostly young travelers - 55% respondents
between 21 and 30 years• Greater percentage of respondents werestudents as compared to the railways• Respondents had on average, lower
incomes than those on the railways

Age of respondents
55%

60%
50%
40%
30%20%
10%
0%

26%

5%
16-20

3%

51-60

Govt. Service
Private Service

5%

25,000-50,000

20%

Self Employed

4%

10,000-25,000

Unemployed34%

Less than 10,000

Student

13%

No Income

14%

25%

Retired48%

0%Over 60

1%

17%

1%

50,000-1,00,000

41-50

2%

13%

3%

Above 1,00,000

31-40

5%

Occupation of repondents

Shares of monthly incomesOr you don’t want to disclose

21-30

8%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Primary surveys were conducted at bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712OtherThe Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES
Purpose of travel by respondents

Frequency of travel

1%
5%

11%

18%

Business/Official

17%

8%

63%

4%

Daily

Recreational

WeeklySocialMonthly47%

Education
Others26%

YearlyOccasionally• 63% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes• Most of these respondents made trips along this corridor once a week
• share92% ofofthem
their tickets
at thealong
time ofthis
the corridor
journey were youngHighbusbooked
passengers
surveyed

and booked their tickets at the time of journey

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
AIR TRAFFIC
Share of originating air traffic• 1.76 mn passengers travelled by air
in 2011-12

2011-1237%
Ahmedabad• Mumbai-Ahmedabad accounts for
80% of the traffic

54%

9%

MumbaiVadodara
Surat0%• Rapid growth of aviation passengers
Growth of air and rail traffic
1,400HigherMiddleLower

Air

1,200
Millions• New airports in the anvil• At this rate the mobility on air
would exceed the mobility on
medium classes of the railways by
2012-131,000800
600
400

This growth of passenger traffic driven by200growth in air and road traffic is02010-11
2011-12
unsustainable in the long2008-09
run 2009-10

National energy mix for transport
is unsustainable• 6 times increase in energy
consumption from 2010 to 2050
expected• 90% energy consumption byroad transport sector• Heavy dependence on
petroleum products (95%)• 80% energy demand will be metby diesel• 3 times increase in CO2emissions from 2010 to 2050
expected• Road and air transport - key
contributors to CO emissions

Source- TERI (2009)

Source- TERI (2009)

Trends not sustainable from theperspective of energy security• India imports almost 80% of its total crude oil requirements• Import dependence expected to reach almost 90% by 2031-32• More than 20% of the domestic gas requirements are met
through imports
Domestic production and imports of crude oil

Source- TERI

Domestic production and imports of natural gas

Source- MoPNG

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT
Share of energy use on different modes
2011-12• Road traffic consumed almost
75% of the energy used

3%23%
Rail

• Cars: 30% traffic -> 60% energy

Air60%

14%BusCar• Air: 10% traffic -> 23% energy
4Growth of energy use on various modes(MJ)
CarBusAirRail3Billions• Rail, most efficient with 30%
traffic and only 3% of the energyused• Over 90% of the energy needs
are being met by petroleum
sources2

1

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT
Share of CO emission from different transport modes• Road traffic –72% of the
2011-12emissions
9%19%• Diesel use among cars –58%
14%
causing large amount ofemissions• Air generating aGrowth of emissions on different transport modesdisproportionate
amount of the emissions• Rail - 30% of thepassenger traffic with
Needreduceenergy consumption from transport sector –only 9%oftotheemissions
2RailAirBusCar(tCO2)

350
300

CarAirBus

RailThousands

250
200

150

100

50

2008-09

2009-10
2010-11
Need to adopt alternative growth pathways for passenger
transport
sector 2011-12

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BAU TRAFFIC GROWTH TRENDS
Business as usual growth in passenger kilometers(2008/9 to 2035/36)

7RailAirBusCar

65
4
3

2
1

2035-362034-35

2033-34

2032-33

2031-322030-312029-302028-292027-28

2026-272025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-20

2018-192017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132011-122010-11

2009-10

2008-09

Passenger Kilometers (Billions)8• Modal share of air to reach 23% (2035-36) from just 10% (2011-12)• Largest share of the traffic would still be carried on roads (53%)• Traffic share on cars would be retained at 30% of total traffic

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BAU ENERGY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS

14Billions (MJ)

12
10
8
6
4
2-CarAirBusRail

1,200

BAU trends in CO2 emissions useby different modes (kg CO2)
CarAirBusRail

1,000Millions (kg CO2)

16BAU trends in energy use bydifferent modes (MJ)

800
600
400200-• The on-road traffic would be using 58% of the energy for transport along
this corridor by 2035-36• By 2035-36 air would need 40% of the energy with only 23% of the mobility;
Rail - 2% energy -> 25% of the mobility• Rail would still generate the lowest amount of total emissions (6%). Road –Corridor trends of energy and emissions mirror national trends.
59%

Need to move more people to rail based mass transport systems.

A possible solution
INTRODUCTION OF HSR• Reduced energy use due to modal shift
Energy efficiency:– 8.5 times airplane– 4 times car– 3 times bus• Reduction in carbon emissions
CO2 emissions (kg) per 100 PKM– Airplane: 17– Car:
14– HSR:

4• Time savings• Could act as catalyst for economicgrowth, facilitate regional development

Source: UIC HSR Presentation by Jean-Pierre Loubinoux 2009

If introduced, with all its advantages, would people be willing to travel by HSR?

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSR

Air• International experience show HSR passengers prefer to travel by HSR forjourneys with travel time less than 3 hours

Source: UIC-High Speed Presentation by Jean-Pierre LOUBINOUX 2009

• About 80% of the passengers between Ahmedabad and Mumbai canbe expected to shift to HSRThe Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSR

Rail• Conducted primary surveys on board trains and on platforms tounderstand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced• About 98% passengers said that they would be willing to shift to HSR• But smaller percentage were willing to pay for HSR services
Willingness to shift and pay for HSR
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

99%

86%

29%
HigherMiddle
WTS (YES)

Lower

WTS (NO)

Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSRRoad• Conducted primary surveys at bus terminals to understand willingness ofcurrent passengers to shift to HSR if introduced• About 69% passengers traveling on luxury bus classes said they would shift
to HSR and pay• From the Japanese experience of the Shinkansen, about 15% of car users
shifted to HSR

80%

Share of respondents willing to shift
and pay for HSR
69%

60%
40%
20%

19%

0%

Luxury Bus
Other Bus
Based on these assumptions
an alternate scenario
was built to evaluate theimpactof HSRVadodara,
alongSurat
thisPrimary surveys were conducted at intercity bus terminals
in Ahmedabad,and corridor
Mumbai. Sample size: 712

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
TRAFFIC TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR
25

HSR Scenario growth in passenger kilometers

Passenger Kilometers (Billions)

HSRAirRailBusCar

20

15

10

52020-21, assumed starting year for HSR operations-• Large share of air and conventional rail passengers would shift by 2035-36• 46% of corridor traffic is seen to move on HSR within 15 years of operation• About 40% of the passenger traffic would still move on roads (car: 25%,bus: 15%) in 2035-36

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
ENERGY TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR
HSR scenario growth in energy use by different modes (MJ)
16HSRCarAirBus

RailSavings in energy (MJ)

Energy for transport (Billions MJ)

1412

Energy savings as compared to BAU

108642-• This scenario results in an annual average savings of about 3.5 PJ over a 15year period• By 2035-36, HSR services would carry about 46% of the total traffic byconsuming only 16% of the energy• Road transport would still continue to consume the largest share of energy

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
EMISSIONS TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR
1,200
1,000

HSR scenario growth in CO2 emissions use by different
modes (kg)
HSRCarAirBusRailEmissions savings

Millions

Emissions reductions as compared to BAU
800
600
400200-• A 10% reduction of emissions per annum over BAU• Annual average emissions reduction of about 81,040 tCO2 over a 15 year
period• Impact on emissions due to HSR is dampened due to heavy coal basedenergy generation – need to move towards non-fossil fuel energy sourcesSummary• High Speed Rail is definitely one of thesolutions to meet the rapidly increasing
demands for mobility along this corridor– Large energy savings– Man hours savings– Increased safety– Reduced total emissions• New technologies for electricity generation
should be explored to realize the complete
benefits of HSR

THANK YOU