Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division, South Asia Department 4
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the ProjectCountry：The People’s Republic of Bangladesh (Bangladesh)
Project：Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 5 Northern Route) (II)Loan Agreement：June 28, 2022
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Development Sector and the Priority of the
Project in Bangladesh
The population of Dhaka increased from 6.62 million to 19.8 million (estimatedvalue) between 1990 and 2018 (United Nations Population Division, 2018). This
population increase and economic growth have caused a rapid increase intransportation demand, which in turn has led to chronic traffic congestion and air
pollution. As a result, the average vehicle travel speed in Dhaka was 6.4 km/h, whichis less than half that of central Tokyo (14.7 km/h) (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism, 2015). Economic loss due to traffic congestion are estimatedto be billions of dollars per year (World Bank 2018). In terms of air pollution, theannual average PM10 concentration is reported to be 146 µg/m3 (World HealthOrganization [WHO], 2018), which exceeds the WHO environmental standard of 20 to70 µg/m3. WHO points out that emissions from vehicles are responsible for roughly
40% of air pollution in Dhaka, and is concerned that emissions from such traffic
congestion could harm the health of residents in the Dhaka metropolitan area. These
factors have worsened the country’s economic activities and urban environment,
creating a major bottleneck for economic and social development.
The Eighth Five Year Plan (FY2021-FY2025) sets a major goal of comprehensive
economic growth, which benefits all people including the poor. In addition, it aims at
reducing the traffic congestion and improving the environment, improving transport
and traffic infrastructure so as to meet existing and potential demands, anddeveloping an integrated and balanced system in which all modes can perform
efficiently and each mode can fulfil its appropriate role in the system, in the“Transportation and Communication” sector.
The Government of Bangladesh has established the Revised Strategic Transport
Plan (RSTP) with the assistance of JICA in August 2016, which aims to develop fivemass rapid transit (MRT) routes and two bus rapid transit (BRT) routes.
MRT Line 5 (Northern Route), which will be constructed under the Dhaka Mass
Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 5, Northern Route) (hereinafter referred toas “the Project”), is a route that runs east-west through the center of the capital city of
Dhaka, and connects with MRT Lines 1 and 6, both of which are currently supported

by Japanese ODA Loans. The creation of this public transport network will facilitate
traffic. The Project is positioned as a high priority project in RSTP mentioned above.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Urban Development Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for the People's Republic ofBangladesh (February 2018) has set forth the priority area of “accelerating economic
growth for the benefit of all citizens toward a middle-income country,” trying tocontribute to the improvement of regional connectivity by promoting the efficient moveof people and goods through the development of high quality transportation and traffic
infrastructure in accordance with international standards, while paying attention to thediversification of transportation systems. In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper
for the People's Republic of Bangladesh (March 2019) identifies urban development
including urban transport as a prioritized issue. The Project is thus consistent with thisanalysis and policy. Additionally, since it will help alleviate traffic congestion in the
Dhaka metropolitan area, and reduce the negative environmental impact of air
pollution, the Project will also contribute to the achievement of SDGs Goal 9 (Industry,Innovation and Infrastructure), 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and 13(Climate Action).
In addition to the JICA’s recent major assistance activities in the urban
development sector specified in 3. (7) 1), JICA implemented the technical cooperation,“Project on the Revision and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan for Dhaka (FY
2014-2016), to establish RSTP.
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank (WB) assisted the preparation of the Strategic Transport Plan. WB
also implemented the Clean Air and Sustainable Environment Project, which supports
detailed design of the BRT Route 3 south section (between Airport Station and Jhilmil),from 2009 to 2016. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been implementing theGreater Dhaka Sustainable Urban Transport Corridor Project to develop the BRT
Route 3 north section (between Gazipur and Airport Station) since 2010. ADB also
provides assistance for the MRT Line 5 Southern Route (between Gabtoli and
Aftabnagar station), which is planned to be built parallel to the southern part of the
Project. This, together with the Project, have been positioned as Strategic Partnershipfor Sustainable and Inclusive Development through Promotion of Quality
Infrastructure Investment in Asia and the Pacific.
３．Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to alleviate the traffic congestion and mitigate the air
pollution in Dhaka City and adjoining areas by constructing the mass rapid transit
system, thereby contributing to the economic development and improving urban
environment.

(2) Project Site/Target Area
Dhaka District(3) Project Component(s)1） Construction of a depot (land development, construction of depot buildings,
railway sidings, etc.)
2） Construction of railway structures (total length of approx. 20km, construction of
14 stations, tracks, etc.)
3） Installation of electrical and mechanical system
4） Procurement of rolling stocks (144 cars: 8 cars × 18 sets)5） Consulting services (feasibility study review, basic and detailed design, tenderassistance, construction supervision, environmental and social consideration,
training for operation and maintenance, institutional development assistance,
assistance in preparing for non-rail business, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
605,250 million Yen（Loan Amount：133,399 million Yen）
(5) Schedule
June 2018 (Loan Agreement of Engineering Service (E/S) loan) - October 2031
(161 months in total) The Project will be completed upon the opening of all sections(November 2029).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL)
4) Operation and Maintenance System: DMTCL(7) Cooperation and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: MRT Line 1 and 6, to be constructed with JICA’s loan assistanceunder “Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 1)” and “Dhaka Mass
Rapid Transit Development Project” respectively, will be connected with MRT Line 5
Northern Route being constructed under the Project. In addition, based on theoutcomes of the technical cooperation, “Project for Establishment of Clearing House
for Integrating Transport Ticketing System in Dhaka City Area (Phase 1),” thetechnical cooperation, “Project for Establishment of Clearing House for Integrating
Transport Ticketing System in Dhaka City Area (Phase 2)” aims to establish aframework for making smart cards more widespread as well as to fully introduce andinstitutionalize the smart card payment system. Furthermore, the technicalcooperation, “Technical Assistance for Mass Rapid Transit Safety Management
System of Line 6”, supports for capacity development to establish and implement
DMTCL’s operational safety management system. Additionally, the technicalcooperation, “Project for Development of Policy and Guidelines for Transit Oriented
Development along Mass Transit Corridors”, supports for planning of strategic urban

development around MRT stations for officials of Rajdhani Unnayan Kartipakkha(RAJUK: public agency responsible for urban planning in Dhaka).
2) Other Donors’ Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Cross-Sectoral Issues/Gender Category
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category : A② Reason for Categorization: The project falls into the railway sector, and is likely
to have significant adverse impact due to its characteristic under the JICA
guidelines for environmental and social considerations (April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report on
the Project was approved by the Department of Environment, Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests of Bangladesh, in November 2017. In Bangladesh,the Environmental Clearance Certificate must be renewed annually, and thecertificate for the Project was renewed in November 2021.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: Air pollution, noise, and vibrations caused by theconstruction work will be minimized by implementing various measures, suchas regularly sprinkling water, installing temporary enclosures, installing soundabsorbers for the construction equipment, and installing noise barriers.
Through the installation of long rails and sound insulation barriers, the level ofnoise emitted when the trains are in service is expected to meet the Japanese
noise standard for conventional railways. Any deterioration in water quality will
be prevented by installing wastewater treatment facilities at train stations anddepots. Additionally, tunnel excavation for the Project will generate
approximately 1.5 million m3 of surplus soil, but this will be reused by RAJUK
and private companies for land reclamation and earth filling. Specific uses,
storage methods and treatment methods will be adjusted and decided by theGovernment of Bangladesh during the detailed design phase.
⑤ Natural Environment: As the Project site is not located in or around nationalparks or other vulnerable areas, any undesirable impact on the naturalenvironment is likely to be minimal.
⑥ Social Environment: The construction of the railway structures and depot, mostof which will make use of the space above and below existing roads, will
involve the acquisition of about 40.4 ha of land (about 29 ha for the depot andabout 11.4 ha for the construction yard). Out of 4,660 affected people from
1,107 households affected by the Project (Including the results ofsupplementary survey), 135 residents from 29 households will need to beresettled. The land acquisition and resettlement will be implemented inaccordance with the domestic procedures of Bangladesh and a resettlement
plan formulated under the JICA Guidelines. No particular objections to theProject were raised during meetings with local residents.

⑦ Other/Monitoring: During the construction phase, the executing agency and thecontractor and the executing agency are in charge of monitoring air pollution,
noise, vibration, water quality, waste, etc. After the start of operations, theexecuting agency will monitor noise, vibration and water quality, etc. The
executing agency will also monitor progress of land acquisition, resettlement
and livelihood recovery support.
2) Cross-Cutting Issues
The Project is intended to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change throughthe promotion of public transportation, thereby contributing to reduce Green House Gas(GHG) emissions. The Project’s mitigation effect on climate change (estimatedreduction of GHG emissions) is expected to be approximately 39,491 tons ofCO2/year (estimate for 2029). In addition, flood prevention measures in stations,transition sections and the Depot area will be considered in the detailed design andthereby the project may contribute to adaptation to climate change. Based on the
Bangladesh National Building Code and Barrier-free Maintenance Guideline about
facilities and vehicles of public transportation in Japan, barrier-free facilities such as
guiding blocks for persons with disabilities and slopes for wheelchairs are provided.
Measures against COVID-19 infection are implemented such as taking PCR test
before entering the construction site, preparing isolation buildings, assigning
doctors, and reserving hospital beds for contractors and consultants. Considering
the impact of COVID-19, the cost, construction period, etc. have been revised withreference to Bangladesh national laws and guidance3) Gender Category: [Gender Project] GI (S) (Gender Activities Integration Project)
Activity Component(s)/Reason for Categorization:
Gender action plans including the operation of women-only cars at peak times,
the installation of surveillance cameras in stations and cars, as well as thepromotion of hiring women for construction sites and at managing entities will be
implemented to promote gender understanding and woman safety.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A
The introduction of advanced Japanese technologies such as rolling stocks,
electrical/signaling systems, civil engineering technology, etc. to achieve
high-quality infrastructure is possible.
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Indicator

Baseline（Actual Value in 2017）

Target (2031)【Expected value 2 years
after project completion】

Passenger Kilometern/a
10,023(1,000 people/km/day)Train Kilometer (km/day) *
n/a
5,794
Average Travel Time (min)*122
32
Number of Running Train(Number of Runningn/a261
Train/Day/one way)
Operating Rate of Train (%)
n/a93*formula: Train Kilometer=Running Distance / Total Trains**The time required is calculated for the Project area (between Hemayetpur station
and Vatara station). The Baseline value is from the average speed of the bus in therelevant section.
(2) Qualitative Effects
Facilitation of transportation and logistics in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area, development of
Bangladesh’s economy through the reduction of economic losses by reducing traffic
congestion, mitigation of climate change through the reduction of GHG emissions bypromoting a modal shift to public transportation and alleviation of air pollution, and promotionof women’s empowerment.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal Rate of
Return (EIRR) will be 14.0%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) will be
7.5%.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs and operation/maintenance costs (excluding tax)
Benefit: Reduction in vehicle operation costs, travel time, GHG emissions etc.
Project Life: 41 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project costs and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Fare revenue
Project Life: 41 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Conditions: N/A
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The results of the ex-post evaluation of the Calcutta Metro Railways Construction
Project (ODA Loan for India, evaluated in 2001) revealed that, for projects involving
land acquisition and facility relocation, it is important to take into account the opinions
of local residents and parties involved in the planning and implementation phase. It
also indicates that delays in relocating underground installations, such as waterworks
and sewerage, can cause construction delays and cost overruns. In addition, theresults of the ex-post evaluation of the Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project(I)-(IV) in India (evaluated in 2010) showed that construction delays were prevented
because the executing agency (Delhi Metro Rail Corporation), not the waterauthorities or other such parties, relocated the underground installations. Furthermore,
the results of the ex-post evaluation for the Mass Transit System Project in Bangkok(Purple Line) (I) and (II) (evaluated in 2018) reported that the development of branchlines connecting MRT stations to residential areas were necessary to ensure sufficientpassenger numbers.
Based on the lessons above, the Project is intended to determine the scale of theland acquisition and resettlement areas and start discussions with stakeholders at an
early stage during the detailed design phase of the E/S Loan through consulting
services for environmental and social considerations. A geological survey,
underground utilities survey, underground obstacle survey, and cultural asset survey
are conducted during the detailed design phase. In order to prevent construction
delays and cost overruns resulting from geological conditions, undergroundinstallations, underground obstacles, and cultural assets, while the executing agency
DMTCL will relocate and remove underground installations and coordinate therelocation and removal work with relevant agencies. In addition, in order to provide
convenient access to MRT Line 5, coordination with various stakeholders is
implemented from the detailed design stage to formulate a plan and design that
ensures user-friendliness when connecting to other MRT lines, as well as to othermodes of transport such as trains and buses.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development issues and development policies ofBangladesh, as well as the assistance policies and analyses of the Government ofJapan and JICA. Through the development of MRT, the Project will help to alleviatetraffic congestion in the Dhaka metropolitan area and help to reduce the air pollution,
thereby contributing to the achievement of SDGs Goal 9 (Industry, Innovation andInfrastructure), 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and 13 (Climate Action).
Therefore, the necessity for JICA to support the Project is substantial.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used: As indicated in sections 4. (1) to (3).
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule: Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the projectcompletion
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