TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for October 2021)

Economic DI was 41.5, with a significant improvement inbusinesses related to consumer spending

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Economic activities for both production and consumption are expected togradually normalize. ～(Companies researched: 24,052; Valid responses: 11,332; Response rate: 47.1%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: Improved in all ten industries. While those related toconsumer spending got a boost, the impact of supply restrictions
continues.

< Overview of October 2021: Improved >The economic diffusion index (DI) in October 2021 was 41.5, up 1.6 points
from the previous month, and improved for the second straight month. With asignificant improvement in businesses related to consumer spending, etc., thedomestic economy picked up for the second straight month.

< Future outlook: Recovery trend >While a move to normalize economic activities is expected, the economy isbelieved to be on a recovery trend.

By size: Improved in all sizes for the second straight month. The DI for
SMEs has returned to the 40s for the first time in three months.
By region: Improved in all ten regions, with a favorable factor being an
increase in the number of people turning out after cancellation of thestate of emergency, etc.

55
50
45
40
35

33.8

35.4 35.0

33.9

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1

40.7

39.2 39.9

41.5 42.7

44.4 44.6
42.9 43.2 43.7 44.2

After 1 month

After 6 months

45.1 45.7

46.1 46.5 47.0

After 1 year

After 3 months

30

0
25

（Prediction→）

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
2022
Projected future DI 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5 42.7 42.9 43.2 43.7 44.2 44.4 44.6 45.1 45.7 46.1 46.5 47.0
Change from Oct.2021
1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.5
Upper
43.5 44.2 44.8
45.5
46.2
46.6 47.0 47.7 48.4 49.0 49.5 50.2*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated
to the
ARIMA
model.
Lower
41.8 41.7 41.7 41.9 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.6 43.0 43.2 43.5 43.9

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research October 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theOct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21

Previous
Month

Total

33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.9 41.5

1.6

Large Firms

36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3 38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2 41.9 42.9 41.4 42.5 43.8

1.3

Small to Medium-sized Firms

33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4 35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9 38.5 40.2 38.8 39.4 41.0

1.6

Micro Firms

33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8 34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6 37.1 38.4 37.4 38.7 40.0

1.3

Ratio to theOct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9 33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7 39.1 38.5 37.0 38.1 41.1

3.0

Finance38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1 38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5 41.7 42.8 39.7 41.5 43.0

1.5

Construction

41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4 40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0 41.6 42.7 42.5 43.7 44.7

1.0Real Estate

36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5 38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4 40.9 41.8 39.4 42.6 43.6

1.0

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7 30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6 34.0 35.5 32.8 34.1 38.1

4.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5 26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 29.3 31.0 29.3 28.2 30.2

2.0

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3 37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6 40.1 42.5 41.2 42.7 43.7

1.0

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6 29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5 34.9 37.2 36.6 36.2 39.3

3.1

Publishing,Printing

21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2 22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2 27.1 27.4 25.6 27.1 29.4

2.3

Chemical34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0 40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3 44.5 46.3 45.0 41.9 42.6

0.7

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9 37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9 43.4 46.4 45.1 43.8 44.2

0.4

General Machinery

29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6 36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2 43.7 45.9 46.6 46.2 47.2

1.0Electrical Machinery

33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1 39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8 45.0 46.8 45.9 45.8 47.5

1.7

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1 40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3 47.1 50.6 48.2 37.6 37.7

0.1

Medical Instruments and Equipment

32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9 42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7 49.1 50.5 50.9 50.8 50.4

▲ 0.4

Other

29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5 31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0 34.1 37.6 33.9 35.3 35.5

0.2

31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4 35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0 40.6 42.7 41.5 40.7 42.1

1.4

Food,BEWerages

32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8 29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 30.7 31.3 29.1 29.8 33.0

3.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2 19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7 22.5 22.8 21.2 22.4 24.5

2.1

33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7 34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5 36.3 37.8 37.7 39.6 39.9

0.3

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3 29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6 31.4 31.2 29.2 29.6 31.8

2.2

Chemical

32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3 37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7 42.0 42.4 40.7 42.2 44.2

2.0

Recycled Resources

32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6 42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4 52.0 53.7 51.4 51.8 53.4

1.6

Mining Products

30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6 33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5 38.7 41.1 41.1 41.6 41.6

0.0Machinery,Equipment

33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6 36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0 40.7 43.1 41.3 41.8 42.6

0.8

Other

30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0 31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2 35.5 36.6 33.0 34.4 37.8

3.4

31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6 33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3 36.8 38.3 36.6 37.6 39.1

1.5

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research October 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theOct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8 33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6 34.9 37.5 36.0 33.1 38.0

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7 21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2 20.3 25.0 21.4 21.5 27.9

6.4

Drugs,Sundries

33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2 32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3 31.4 32.5 33.3 34.6 45.8

11.2

Furniture

37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4 36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6 39.8 36.9 34.6 32.2 35.6

3.4

Information Machinery and Equipment

34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3 36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8 35.8 37.7 33.8 33.8 34.6

0.8

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7 37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6 40.7 40.5 36.8 37.2 35.9

▲ 1.3

Special Merchandise

33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 32.6 31.7 32.8

1.1

Various Merchandise

37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7 36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 27.3 33.0 35.9

2.9

Other

33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3 33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.0 35.4 31.7

▲ 3.7

34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9 34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1 34.5 35.4 32.7 32.6 34.8

2.2

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

4.9

30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0 31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7 34.5 36.3 36.0 35.8 37.1

1.3

Restaurants

18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3 12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 20.5 19.7 14.8 15.2 27.8

12.6

Postal,Telecommunications

41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3 38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5 27.8 42.9 39.6 41.7 50.0

8.3

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5 39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2 45.0 40.8 44.4 45.8 42.6

▲ 3.2

Leasing,Rentals

34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5 32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0 38.1 41.0 37.4 39.6 43.9

4.3

Lodging, Hotels

27.2 28.8 11.9

11.6 13.0 10.0 10.4 22.6

12.2

Recreation

23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5 29.2 34.8 29.2 29.0 34.0

5.0

Broadcasting

34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3 42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 38.9 39.2 49.1

9.9

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3 37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8 42.7 41.9 41.6 44.0 44.3

0.3

Advertising21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2 24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4 27.5 27.5 26.8 29.5 32.4

2.9

Information

40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3 43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9 46.8 48.2 46.7 48.5 50.5

2.0

Labor Dispatching

29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6 33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5 36.2 41.9 38.4 41.9 39.7

▲ 2.2

Special Services

40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8 42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.3 44.4 45.5 47.9

2.4

Medical,Welfare,Public Health33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7 34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2 41.2 42.1 41.1 41.4 42.8

1.4

Education

34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3 34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.3 37.5 39.0 43.5

4.5

Other

31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.8 37.4 34.7 39.2 40.6

1.4

35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9 36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5 39.7 41.5 39.1 41.1 43.6

2.5

28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5 30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3 35.5 34.7 35.3 35.6 38.0

2.4

Total

Other

3.4

4.4

10.9

8.6

5.6

Ratio to theOct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4 33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5 37.1 38.3 38.0 38.5 40.8

2.3

Tohoku34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7 39.3 40.0 38.4 39.0 40.2

1.2

kitakanto

33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9 37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5 41.2 42.7 41.5 40.4 42.8

2.4

minamikanto

34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0 35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4 39.8 41.0 40.0 41.4 42.4

1.0

Hokuriku

31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7 34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1 39.2 40.6 39.1 40.4 41.2

0.8

Tokai

32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1 36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9 39.4 42.0 40.0 39.1 40.1

1.0

Kinki

32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1 35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 38.1 40.3 38.7 39.3 41.3

2.0

Chugoku34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5 36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0 37.9 39.0 38.2 38.7 41.2

2.5

Shikoku33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8 35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8 37.6 38.2 36.9 38.3 39.0

0.7

Kyushu36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3 37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5 38.3 40.5 37.4 39.1 42.0

2.9

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TDB Trends Research October 2021

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 24,052; Valid
responses: 11,332; Response rate: 47.1%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

569
819
850
3,331
630

Kyushu

1,262
1,950
642
386
893

Total

11,332

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

69

Finance

117

Construction

1,893

Real Estate

369

Manufacturing（3,064）Wholesale（2,891）Retail（512）

Food,Beverages

71

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

40

Drugs,Sundries

28

Furniture

15

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

41

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

359

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

122

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

221

Special Merchandise

175

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

104

Various Merchandise

46

Publishing,Printing

187

OthersChemical424

Transportation,Warehousing

541

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

542

Restaurants

60

General Machinery

505

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

318

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

10

5
18

115

Leasing,Rentals

120

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

76

Lodging, Hotels

42

Others91

Recreation

73

Food,Beverages

384

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

187

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,830）18

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

205

349

Advertising

103

107

Information

468

286

Labor Dispatching

68

29

Special Services

291
111

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

294

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment927

Education

31

Others328

Others217
46

OthersTotal

3.Size86

Large Firms

1,901

16.8%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,431

83.2%

micro Firms

3,376

29.8%

Total

11,332100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,332

TDB Trends Research October 2021

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted Oct 18 – 31 2021

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 24,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Selection category Extremely good

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

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TDB Trends Research October 20215