Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project (Phase 4) (I)
L/A signing date: March 26, 2021
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Transport Sector in India
Rapid urbanization has progressed in India recently and the number ofregistered automobiles has also been increasing rapidly (from around 55 million
vehicles in 2001 to approximately 230 million vehicles in 2016), yet thedevelopment of public transportation infrastructure has not progressed andtraffic jams due to increasing demand for road traffic have been a serious
problem in major cities such as in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bengaluru, etc.,
aggravating economic losses and health damage due to automobile pollution
such as air pollution/noise, etc.
In order to deal with the above problems, the Government of India in its “Metro
Rail Policy” (latest version updated in 2017) has set forth a policy promoting thedevelopment of public transportation systems such as metro, rail and bus, etc.
from the viewpoint of safety/energy efficiency, etc. in addition to mitigating traffic
congestion and dealing with the demand for transportation due to recent
economic growth. Construction of a metro system in the metropolitan area isparticularly recommended to enable high-volume transportation without putting
undue pressure on existing road capacity.
As of 2016, the number of registered vehicles in Delhi was 9.71 million(according to India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation),
which is even greater than that of other cities such as Bengaluru (approx. 6.11million) or Chennai (approx. 4.94 million), and there is traffic congestion
resulting from the increased number of automobiles. According to a survey ofprivate enterprises, Delhi has recorded a level of congestion-related delay withtravel by car taking approximately 1.47 times longer than when there is nocongestion (placing Delhi 8th in the world as of 2020, according to this reportcovering 57 countries). Delhi has the most CO2 emissions from the transport
sector of any city in India, and air pollution due to the increase of automobiles,etc. has resulted in annual average PM2.5 emissions of about 10 times theWHO standard. Under such circumstances, the Government of National Capital
Territory of Delhi has planned and promoted urban transportation maintenancebased on the introduction of a mass rapid transport system with the aim of
mitigating congestion and air pollution in the National Capital Territory of Delhi.
In the Delhi Master Plan 2021 (partially revised in May 2010) that wasformulated by the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi andapproved by the Central Government, a rapid transport system is highlighted as
playing a key role in the transport system of the National Capital Territory ofDelhi for urban infrastructure to be maintained as of 2021. With a view toward
implementation of this Master Plan, construction plans for Phases 1 to 4 areformulated and being implemented. The Delhi Mass Rapid Transport SystemProject (Phase 4) (hereinafter referred to as “the Project”) aims to deal with theincreasing demand for transport by maintaining 3 priority corridors (extension ofLines 7 and 8, and new establishment of Line 10) out of the 6 corridors planned
as part of the Phase 4 maintenance plan in the National Capital Territory of Delhi,and the Project is positioned as an important project in India’s urban transportsector.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Urban Transport Sector Policy and the Positioning of theProjectCountry Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) formulated by theGovernment of Japan stipulates that the development of railways (including highspeed railways and metros) shall be necessary in order to strengthen
connectivity among major industrial cities and economic zones in India by
setting forth “Enhancing Connectivity” through the development oftransportation infrastructure, etc. as the priority area with the aim at resolving
the infrastructure bottleneck against investment and growth. “Strengthening
industrial competitiveness” through urban foundation maintenance, etc. is also
set out as an important field for assistance, together with the promotion oftransportation infrastructure, etc. in major metropolitan areas by constructing
subways, etc. with the aim of mitigating traffic congestion, optimizing
passenger/freight transport and improving the urban environment, etc. Also, inorder to eliminate the bottleneck in economic growth, the JICA Country Analysis
Paper for India (March 2018) provides an analysis that, mainly in the industrial
agglomeration areas such as special economic zones and economic corridors
located in the six major metropolitan areas in India and the Delhi – Mumbai
Industrial Corridor, cooperation for measures to deal with environment andclimate change issues are being promoted as a means of support continuous,comprehensive growth, and it is necessary to promote regional economic
development facilitation and logistics optimization, and to support infrastructuredevelopment including arterial railroad, urban railway, roads, and harbors which
contribute to increased investment from the foreign capital. The Project isconsistent with these policies and analyses.
The Project is also expected to contribute to the achievement of Goal 9 (Buildresilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and fosterinnovation), Goal 11 (Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable), andGoal 13 (Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts) of theSustainable Development Goals (SDGs), so the Project’s implementation ishighly necessary.
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
There has been funding from the World Bank for the Mumbai Urban Transport
Project (approved in 2002 and 2010, total of USD 972 million) and the Eastern
Dedicated Freight Corridor Project (approved in 2011, 2014 and 2015 total of
USD 2,725 million). There has also been support from the Asian Development
Bank (ADB) for the Jaipur Metro Rail Project (approved in 2013, USD 157million), and cooperative financing with the New Development Bank for theMumbai Metro Rail System Project (Lines 2A, 2B, 7; approved in 2019;
approved amounts of USD 926 million from ADB and USD 260 million from cofinancing). For the Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project, however, there
is no assistance from other donors.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to cope with the increase of traffic demand in
Delhi by expanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting
regional economic development, improving urban environment and eventually
mitigating climate change, through relief of traffic congestion and decrease ofpollution caused by increasing motor vehicles.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
The National Capital Territory of Delhi (population: approx. 17 million)(3) Project Components
1) Civil works (underground railway of approx. 27 km, above-ground/elevatedrailway of approx. 38 km, with underground stations (18) and elevatedstations (26))2) Signaling & train control system, electrical system, station facility
construction, and automatic fare collection system, etc.
3) Procurement of rolling stock (484)4) Consulting service (design review, construction supervision, etc.)
The fields covered by the ODA loan are civil works in the undergroundrailway and stations of 1), parts of items 2) and 3), and item 4).
(4) Estimated Project Cost
384,416 million yen (Yen Loan Amount of this tranche: 119,978 million yen)(5) Schedule
March 2021 to March 2027 (73 months in total). The commencement ofoperation for all the lines (March 2026) shall be the time of the Project’scompletion.
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India

2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Limited (hereinafter“DMRC”)
4) Operation and Maintenance Agency: Same as above(7) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors
1) Japan's Assistance Activity: N/A
2) Other Donors’ Assistance Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues / GenderCategory
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason of Categorization: The project falls into the railway sector under
the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations (April,2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Although preparation of an Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) Report regarding the Project is not required under thedomestic law in India, a report was prepared by the DMRC in May 2018,
subsequently revised in June 2020, and this has been internally approvedby the DMRC.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: Regarding air quality, water quality, waste,noise and vibration during construction work, there are plans to ensure
conformance to India’s emissions standards and environmental
standards by means of sprinklers and wastewater treatment, excavatedearth treatment, and installation of noise barriers, etc. Regarding theimpact on the ground during construction, no serious influence due toland subsidence is expected, since loose ground and the inflow ofgroundwater will be prevented by adopting the sheet pile construction
method, etc. During operation phase, measures to mitigate noise will betaken by installing soundproof walls, as well as measures to mitigate
vibration such as installing rubber beneath tracks, etc.
⑤ Natural Environment: There are two nature reserves (Asola Bhatti
Wildlife Sanctuary and Okhla Bird Sanctuary) within a 10 km radius fromthe Project routes, but there is no Project implementation within thesereserves. Elevated/underground routes and some station buildings areplanned for the Asola Bhatti Wildlife Sanctuary buffer zone. Since
development has already advanced in this region, it is thought that theProject will have minimal additional impact on wild animals, etc., but theimpact of noise and vibration on flora and fauna will be checked throughprior surveys and monitoring. Trees and shrubs will be cut down, but
replacements will be planted.

⑥ Social Environment: The Project requires the land acquisition amounting
to a total area of about 0.50 ha and the involuntary relocation of 32 people(8 households). Both the land acquisition and the relocation of theresidents will be implemented by the DMRC according to the landacquisition act, policy of Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi
regarding the relocation of residents, etc., and resident relocation plans
drawn up based on the JICA Environmental Guidelines. It is confirmedthat there is no divergence from the JICA Environmental Guidelines
regarding compensation standards, land acquisition or the resident
relocation process, etc., and no objections have been lodged against theProject in consultation meetings with residents. Since the Project passes
through an area of archaeologically and historically important monument
designated by the domestic laws of India, a permit must be obtained fromthe Archaeological Survey of India (ASI), and this has been obtained for
5 of the 7 structures that could be affected, while acquisition of permits
for the remaining 2 locations is ongoing as of January 2021.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: Under the supervision of the DMRC, during
construction phase, contractors will monitor air quality, water quality,waste, noise and vibration, etc., and external consultants commissionedby the DMRC will monitor the same during operation phase. The DMRC
and Forest Department will monitor the ecosystem during construction
and operation phase. Also, together with the DMRC monitoring siteacquisition and resident relocation, external consultants commissionedby the DMRC will carry out monitoring of land acquisition, relocation ofresidents and the living conditions of residents after relocation during
construction and operation phase.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issues:① Climate change: The Project is thought to contribute to mitigation ofclimate change as it contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions by promoting a modal shift. Note that the application of a mass
rapid transport system is included as one of the strategies relating tomitigation policy in India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC),
and the Project is highly regarded. In addition, the Phase 2 and Phase 3of the Project are registered with the United Nations as Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. Going forward, if a newframework is established for emissions trading in the international
community, and the Project meets the requirements, the DMRC willregister the Project for the new framework. The mitigation effect of theProject on the climate change (rough estimate of GHG emissionreduction) is forecast to be about 138,172 tons/year of CO2 equivalent(as of 2041).

② Consideration for Disabilities: In accordance with the domestic laws ofIndia, station buildings and passenger cars (elevators, toilets,announcements, braille blocks, wheelchair space, etc.) that also take into
consideration for usability for the elderly and persons with disabilities will
be adopted. At the same time, station staff, crew members and all otherfrontline staff are being provided with customer care training.
③ Controlling AIDS/HIV: It has been confirmed with the DMRC that
contracts with construction businesses include implementation of AIDS
countermeasures such as activities to make workers aware of prevention,etc.
Moreover, at the time of screening, the executing agency agreed to a listof measures that must be taken when formulating projects andimplementing projects (total of 36 items) to control COVID-19 infections.
Items include the formulation and thorough adherence to behavior
patterns for preventing infections, providing contractual consideration forcontractors when infections increase, etc.
3) Gender Category:■GI(S) (Gender Activity Integration Project)
Activity Description / Reason for Classification: In the Project, measures
such as introducing women-only cars, setting priority seats for passengers
needing assistance (including women), and installing CCTV cameras instation buildings/trains are being taken in order to make women feel safe
and comfortable when they use the metro. Also, as well as ensuring samewages for men and women on construction sites and providing facilities
for female workers, female personnel will also be appointed tomanagement position of project implementation. In addition, the DMRC isproviding dormitories for female workers and is carrying out activities toincrease awareness for the prevention of gender-based violence.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline(2020)

Target (2028)(2 years after
Project completion)Line 7 extension－92

Line 8 extension－92

Line 10－89Indicator

Operation rate (% / year)

Running distance (thousand km /year)
Line 7 extension
Line 8 extension
Line 10Running distance of women-onlycars (thousand km / year)
Line 7 extension
Line 8 extension
Line 10
Number of trains (number of runningtrains / day / directions)Line 7 extension
Line 8 extension
Line 10Transportation volumepassenger – km / day)Line 7 extension

5,784－

10,536－

5,364－

964－

1,756－

894－

104－

187－

67－

2.58

－

7.30

－

3.59

－

9.62

－

27.68

(millionLine 8 extension
Line 10
Income from passenger (millionRupees / day)Line 7 extensionLine 8 extension－－Line 10
14.03
Note: All numerical values are for sections to be constructed by the Project (onlythe extended sections of Lines 7 and 8, and from Aero City to Tughlakabad onLine 10).
(2) Qualitative Effects
Mitigation of traffic pollution, congestion and climate change in the National
Capital Territory of Delhi, improvements in convenience through punctuality inscheduled travel times, economic development of the National Capital Territoryof Delhi, and promotion of societal advances for women.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal
Rate of Return (EIRR) and the Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) will be
19.7% and 7.2%, respectively.
[EIRR]

Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance costs (both excluding tax)
Benefits: Shortening effect on traveling time for the users of metro and roads,
reduction of vehicle maintenance costs for metro and road users, reductionof maintenance costs for road traffic infrastructure, traffic accidents decline
and emission reduction effect of environmental pollutants.
Project Life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance costs (including tax)
Benefits: Fare box revenue, advertisement revenue, and station commercial
and front area development revenue, etc.
Project Life: 30 years
5. Preconditions and External Factors(1) Preconditions: None
(2) External Factors: None
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to the Project
Based on the ex-post evaluation results of the Metro Manila Strategic Mass
Rail Transit Development Project, which is ODA loan project for the Republic ofthe Philippines (evaluation year 2008), etc., the establishment of a financiallyindependent project implementation structure is highlighted as an important issue
from the viewpoint of ensuring suitable operation, management and maintenance.
From the ex-post evaluation reports of India’s Delhi Mass Rapid Transport
System Project and Phase 2 of the same project (evaluation years 2010 and2015), etc., reinforcement of the skills and abilities of internal personnel taking
into account DMRC’s continuous phase implementation has been evaluated as
good practice. The highlighted reasons for this include aiming to improve thetechnical skills of internal personnel by having them gain experience throughcooperation with ODA loan consultants as soon as possible, and contribution todispersion of the metro technology by undertaking external projects such as
training, etc. for other metro management organizations both domestically andabroad.
Based on the above lessons, a data collection survey which aims to propose
reinforcement of DMRC’s financial foundation, etc. will be carried out alongside
the Project.
In addition, the same as previous phases of the Project, transfer of project
management skills to DMRC personnel will continue through the consulting
service of the Project.
7. Evaluation Results

The Project aims to cope with the increase of traffic demand in Delhi byexpanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting regional
economic development, improving urban environment and eventually mitigatingclimate change, through relief of traffic congestion and decrease of pollution
caused by increasing motor vehicles and is consistent with the development
issues and policies of India and the assistance policies and analysis of theGovernment of Japan and JICA. The Project is also expected to contribute to theachievement of Goal 9, Goal 11 and Goal 13 of SDGs, so there is a greatnecessity for assisting with the implementation of this Project.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in section 4 above.
(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the Project’s completion
END