Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 5)
L/A signing date: March 26, 2021
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector / North Eastern Region in India
The need for road infrastructure development to support rapidly growing traffic
demand remains large in India, as passenger and freight traffic volumes continue
to grow in line with population increases and economic growth. In 2001, India’s
Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (hereinafter “MoRTH”) launched theNational Highways Development Project (hereinafter “NHDP”) and has beendeveloping roads between large cities. These roads include the “GoldenQuadrilateral” that links the capital of Delhi, Mumbai in the west, Kolkata in theeast, and Chennai in the southeast. Major highway networks continue to beimproved; for example, road construction work on all planned sections (7,522 km)of the 2001 plan was completed in 2015.
On the other hand, in the northeastern region (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam,Sikkim, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Meghalaya), the pavement
ratio of all roads remains at 31.7% (national average: 71.0%), the percentage ofnational highways consisting of at least one lane per direction is 50.8% (nationalaverage: 74.7%) (according to Basic Road Statistics of India 2016-2017), andslope protection and drainage development as countermeasures against
landslide disasters are not progressing in many areas of the region. For suchreasons, road development in the northeastern region is behind that of otherregions. The delay in road development has become a factor hindering economic
development, as it hampers the stable transportation of people and goods within
the region and impedes the stable flow of people and goods between the regionand other regions and neighboring countries. In fact, the GDP per capita in theregion (2015-2016) is 76,540 Indian rupees, which is far lower than the national
average of 112,432 Indian rupees (according to statistical data of the Reserve
Bank of India). The Three Year Action Agenda for India (2017) prepared by NITI
Aayog also points out the necessity of correcting regional gaps by, for example,
developing infrastructure in the northeastern region. Moreover, the Governmentof India established the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region for the1purpose of developing the northeastern region (2001). For such reasons, thedevelopment of this region has become an urgent issue for the Government ofIndia.
The Government of India is promoting national highway development between
key cities in the region through the Special Accelerated Road Development
Programme for North-East to encourage socioeconomic development andcorrect disparities in the northeastern region. The program points out theimportance of National Highway 127B, which will connect Srirampur in Assamand the planned Dhubri-Phulbari Bridge that will be constructed as part of theNorth East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 3).
Srirampur is a key transport point linking the East-West Corridor, a major arterythat crosses all of India. However, the road from Srirampur to Dhubri-Phulbari
Bridge is narrow and its surface condition is bad, and this impedes connectivity
between the western part of the northeastern region south of Assam and theDhubri-Phulbari Bridge and the rest of India.
The “North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 5)”(hereinafter “the Project”) will improve connectivity between the northeasternregion south of Assam and the Dhubri-Phulbari Bridge and the rest of India bydeveloping National Highway 127B in Assam. Moreover, together with past
projects, this section will form a part of the Gelephu-Dalu Corridor, which willcross Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, and therefore contribute to better
connectivity with neighboring countries. Accordingly, the Project will contribute to
the regional development by facilitating distribution and also contribute to theachievement of the aforementioned policies of the Government of India.
Therefore, it is positioned as an important project in India’s road sector.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Road Sector Policy and the Positioning of the ProjectCountry Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) formulated by theGovernment of Japan states that while the nation requires inclusive, sustainable
and rapid growth, Japan’s ODA is expected to continue to play an important rolein India to build critical infrastructures for ensuring continued investment and higheconomic growth. It also sets “enhancing connectivity” as a priority area andstates that, with a view to de-bottleneck the infrastructure constraints toinvestment and growth, Japan will support development of transportation hub andnetwork infrastructure in the areas of national highways (including express ways)
to strengthen connectivity among major industrial cities and economic zones aswell as regional connectivity. In addition, it states that Japan will promote2cooperation on the enhancement of regional connectivity including in theNortheast region, which has been confirmed at the bilateral summit meeting.
The Project contributes to the enhancement of connectivity, which is one of thepriority areas in JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018), and to theremoval of infrastructure-related bottlenecks to investment and growth.
Accordingly, the Project is consistent with these policies and analyses.
Furthermore, the Project will likely contribute to the achievement of Goal 9(build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and foster
innovation) and Goal 13 (take urgent action to combat climate change and its
impacts) of the Sustainable Development Goals, and therefore the Project’s
implementation is highly necessary.
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank has provided financing to the Assam State Road Project (StateRoad 46) (from March 2012 to September 2019) and the Mizoram State Road
Project (from June 2014 to April 2021) in the northeastern region. The AsianDevelopment Bank is providing financing for road development in thenortheastern region through the North Eastern State Roads Investment
Program’s Project 1 (October 2012 to December 2016) and Project 2 (May 2014to June 2021) and also supporting efforts to reinforce trade corridors in India andthe region (including the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar [BCIM] andBangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal [BBIN] trade corridors) through economiccorridor development projects that are based on the South Asia Subregional
Economic Cooperation framework.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to improve the connectivity in North Eastern
Region of India through establishing and improving National Highway 127B
(Srirampur - Dhubri section) in Assam state, thereby promoting regional socioeconomic development.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
State of Assam (population: 31.2 million)(3) Project Components
1) National Highway 127B: Improvement and widening (to four lanes) of theroad between Srirampur and Dhubri, Assam (including bridges, drainages, etc.),
and construction of bypasses at four locations (total length of approximately 54km)
32) Consulting services (including construction supervision, environmental andsocial consideration, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
23,773 million yen (Yen Loan Amount: 15,285 million yen)(5) Schedule
March 2021 to February 2029 (total of 96 months). The Project will becompleted upon the commencement of service (February 2024).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: National Highways and Infrastructure Development
Corporation Limited (hereinafter “NHIDCL”)
4) Operation and Maintenance Agency: Same as above(7) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors
1) Japan’s Assistance Activity:
JICA is conducting the ODA loan project on National Highway 51 inMeghalaya and National Highway 54 in Mizoram named “North East Road
Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 1)” (L/A signed in March2017). JICA is also providing support to build a new bypass on National
Highway 54 in Mizoram and perform road improvement on National Highway
40 in Meghalaya through the ODA loan project “North East Road Network
Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 2)” (L/A signed in March 2018). Inthe ODA loan project “North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement
Project (Phase 3)” (L/A signed in October 2018), JICA is providing support tobuild a bridge to connect Assam and Meghalaya over the Brahmaputra River.
Through the “North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project(Phase 4) (L/A signed in March 2020), JICA helps road improvement in thesection of National Highway 208 of Tripura that is in the northern part of thestate. Together with the Project, this project will enhance the connectivity ofkey main roads. Additionally, through the technical cooperation project “TheCapacity Development Project on Highways in Mountainous Regions,” JICAis providing support in the formulation of guidelines for slope protection androad operation/maintenance and strengthening cooperation with concerned
agencies, including the Project’s executing agency.
2) Other Donors’ Assistance Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues / GenderCategory41) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason of Categorization: The Project falls into the Road sector, islocated in a sensitive area, and is likely to have significant adverse
impact due to its characteristic under the JICA guidelines forenvironmental and social considerations (April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Although not required under the domestic lawsof India, an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report for thisProject was prepared by NHIDCL in November 2018 and approved inAugust 2020.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: During the construction, mitigation measuresthat include water sprinkling, waste disposal in governmentdesignated disposal sites, reutilization of surplus soil, maintenance ofheavy construction equipment, and installation of noise barrier will betaken with respect to air pollution, water pollution, waste, noise,
vibration, etc. Moreover, such countermeasures as road surface
maintenance and limitation on alarms, etc. will be taken with respect
to noise and vibration when service is commenced.
⑤ Natural Environment: The closest protected area to the Project’s worksites is the Chakrashila Wildlife Sanctuary. However, the sanctuary is
located approximately 45 kilometers from the Project area at theclosest point, and therefore the acquisition of permission and approvalfor development in the Project area does not fall under therequirements specified by the Environment Protection Act and otherrelevant laws and so is not required. Sareswar Beel, which is a Key
Biodiversity Area (KBA), is situated approximately 5 km from theProject site; however, no nesting or feeding grounds of rare species
exist near the Project site and therefore the site is not considered as
an important habitat.
⑥ Social Environment: The Project requires the acquisition ofapproximately 160 ha of land and the involuntary resettlement of 255
households. Land acquisition as well as compensation and support will
be implemented based on a Resettlement Action Plan and incompliance with domestic procedures in India as well as JICA
guidelines. Scheduled tribes that are classified as minority tribes under
the Constitution of India reside in the Project area and appropriate
5consideration is being given to them in public consultations,resettlement/livelihood restoration support measures, etc. No
particular objections to the Project have been confirmed in public
consultations concerning the Project.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: During the construction, contractors and others will
monitor air quality, water quality, waste, noise, soil erosion, etc., under
the supervision of NHIDCL. NHIDCL will monitor noise, soil erosion,etc., during service, and the Competent Authority of Land Acquisition(CALA), which is a body of the state government, local NGOs, andNHIDCL will monitor land acquisition and resettlement. Compensatory
afforestation for felled trees is planned under the Project, and thestate’s forest department will monitor the growth of the planted trees.
Contractors will monitor ecosystems during the construction andNHIDCL will monitor them after service commences.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issues① Climate Change: Although it is predicted that traffic volume will
increase as a result of the Project, the Project will contribute to lower
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by improving traveling performance.
It is anticipated that the climate change mitigation effect of the Project(rough estimation of GHG emissions reduction) will be approximately
7,887 tons/year when based on CO2 conversion (as of 2030).
② Poverty: It is expected that the economic activities of residents living
along the highway will be invigorated and thereby contribute to poverty
reduction.
③ Consideration for Disabilities: It was confirmed at the time of screeningthat the executing agency will give necessary consideration withrespect to ensuring livelihood recovery following resettlement andsafety during construction for the socially vulnerable.
④ Controlling AIDS/HIV: As it is assumed that many workers will beinvolved in the Project, it is thought that the risk of HIV infections willbe high. Accordingly, to prevent the risk of HIV infection during
construction, the Project will demand that contractors cooperate with
HIV/AIDS countermeasures for workers. This will include the inclusionof HIV/AIDS prevention items in bid documents. Moreover, at the timeof screening, the executing agency agreed to a list of measures thatmust be taken when formulating projects and implementing projects
6

(total of 36 items) to control COVID-19 infections. Items include theformulation and thorough adherence to behavior patterns forpreventing infections, providing contractual consideration forcontractors when infections increase, etc.
3) Gender Category:
Gender Project (N/A) ■ Gender Informed (gender mainstreaming needs
survey/analysis project)
Activity Description/Reason for Classification: Although gender mainstreamingneeds were surveyed during screening, this did not lead to specific efforts thatwould contribute to gender quality and women’s empowerment. However, theProject will give attention to promoting women’s employment in constructionwork, promoting women’s employment by the executing agency, etc.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A7

4．Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator

Section/Type

Average Travel Time
Entire section(min.) (passenger vehicle)
Average Travel Cost(INR/km)(2020 estimate)(Two years afterProjectcompletion)

86

46

Passengervehicle

13.52

9.91

Truck

32.37

25.30

3,900

5,000

2,900

14,000

5,000

6,400

2,600

8,900

640

810

80

9,200

From 0-km point to38.99-km point

Traffic Volume (PCU/day)BaselineTarget(2026)

From 38.99-km
point to 54.154-km
point (see note)
From 0-km point toPassenger Volume(x1,000 people/year)

38.99-km point
From 38.99-km
point to 54.154-km
point
From 0-km point to

Cargo Volume(x1,000 tons/year)

38.99-km point
From 38.99-km
point to 54.154-km
point

Note: It is predicted that traffic diversion from other existing routes will occur from the 38.99km point, and therefore the indicators pertaining to traffic volume are ascertained separately
based on that point.

(2) Qualitative Effects
Improved travel comfort in the target section, enhanced connectivity in thenortheastern region and with the rest of India, and socioeconomic developmentin the region(3) Internal Rate of Return8

Under the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal Rate ofReturn (EIRR) will be 12.5%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) is not
calculated because the tolls will not be collected.
[EIRR]
Costs: Construction costs, operation and maintenance costs (both excludingtaxes)
Benefits: Reduction in vehicle travel costs, reduction in travel time costs
Project Life: 20 years
5. Preconditions and External Factors(1) Preconditions: None
(2) External factors: Public order in the Project’s areas does not worsen
significantly.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to the Project
A lesson that is drawn from the experiences of similar road construction
projects currently underway in Northeast India is the importance of carefully
following the coordination among the executing agency, state government, andNGO and the progress of matters such as land acquisition and resettlement. Thisis because considerable time has been spent on those processes due to the lackof coordination between the executing agency, which handles the formulation ofland acquisition and the resettlement action plan, and state governments, which
execute those plans.
To make use of lessons learned from previous projects, it has been confirmedthat NHIDCL is preparing the resettlement action plan with the state government’scooperation; in the previous phases, it was mainly prepared by NHIDCL.
Subsequently, adequate information sharing is taking place between the twosides at the planning stage.
Atthemoment,allnecessary
procedures
concerning
land
acquisition/resettlement, including public consultation, have been carried out.
JICA confirmed with NHIDCL that until relocation is completed, the executing
agency will conduct monitoring surveys on the status of progress and postresettlement living conditions and JICA will receive periodic reports on theirresults. JICA also will conduct further support to expedite procedures if necessary.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development issues and policies of India andthe assistance policies of the Government of Japan as well as JICA. The Project
aims to improve the connectivity in North Eastern Region of India through9establishing and improving National Highway 127B (Srirampur - Dhubri section)
in Assam state, thereby promoting regional socio-economic development, andwill likely contribute to the achievement of Goal 9 and Goal 13 of SDGs. Therefore,
JICA’s support for the Project is highly necessary.
８. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in section 4 above.
(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: two years after the Project’s completion.

10