TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for January 2021)

Domestic economy worsens
for the second month in a row

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ Downward pressure increased as a state of emergency was
declared in 11 prefectures ～（Companies researched: 23,695; Valid responses: 11,441; Response rate: 48.3%;
Survey start date: May 2002)< Overview of January 2021: Worsening continues >The economic diffusion index (DI) in January 2021 was 33.9, down 1.1 points
from the previous month, and worsening for the second month in a row. The
domestic economy worsened for the second consecutive month, mainly inconsumer spending, due to re-declaration of a state of emergency, etc.

By industry : The economy deteriorated in nine industries, and was
pushed further downward by consumer spending-related aspects under
the declaration of a state of emergency.
By size : The economy deteriorated in all sizes for the second month in arow, and was affected by decreased movement of people and low
seasonal demand.

< Future outlook: Temporary setback >The economy shows a temporary setback, but it is believed it will gradually
improve after bottoming out around spring.

By region : The economy deteriorated in all ten regions, and was pushed
downward by re-declaration of a state of emergency and heavy snow,
etc.
50

45
40
35
30

25
20
15
0

41.9
38.7
32.5
25.8 25.2

27.6

29.1 29.7

31.6

33.8

35.4 35.0

33.9 33.2 33.0 33.3 33.5

36.4
34.5 35.6

37.4 38.4

39.4 40.3 40.4

After 1 year
After 1 month

After 3 months

After 6 months（Prediction→）

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020
2021
2021
Projected future DI
41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 33.2 33.0 33.3 33.5 34.5 35.6 36.4 37.4 38.4 39.4 40.3 40.4
Change from January.2021-0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.6 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 6.5
Upper
34.0 34.2 to
34.7
36.4
37.7 38.7 39.8 41.0 42.1 43.2 43.3*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated
the35.2
ARIMA
model.
Lower
32.4 31.8 31.8 31.9 32.6 33.5 34.1 35.0 35.8 36.7 37.5 37.4

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theJan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Previous
Month

Total

41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 29.1 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9

▲ 1.1

Large Firms

45.3 42.0 34.8 28.2 28.1 30.1 31.7 32.4 33.9 36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3

▲ 1.1

Small to Medium-sized Firms

41.1 38.0 32.0 25.3 24.6 27.0 28.5 29.1 31.1 33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4

▲ 1.1

Micro Firms

41.4 38.8 32.3 25.4 24.6 27.8 29.4 30.0 32.0 33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8

▲ 1.4

Ratio to theJan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

38.4 37.9 32.8 28.2 25.1 29.6 31.4 31.0 30.3 34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9

Finance44.8 42.2 33.3 27.3 28.7 32.4 31.5 32.6 35.3 38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1

0.5

Construction

50.0 47.8 41.5 33.9 33.5 36.3 37.5 38.4 40.4 41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4

▲ 1.5

Real Estate

45.9 42.0 31.6 21.9 23.5 29.2 32.5 33.1 35.6 36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5

▲ 0.9

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed

38.0 34.5 28.4 24.8 24.6 27.2 29.6 30.5 32.0 34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7

▲ 1.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

30.5 29.3 23.2 16.7 17.7 17.9 19.8 20.3 23.5 24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5

▲ 1.6

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

39.9 37.2 33.4 29.2 26.5 28.1 28.3 29.8 31.3 35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3

1.3

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

37.3 32.0 29.2 24.0 21.4 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.1 26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6

▲ 1.7

Publishing,Printing

30.9 29.7 23.1 16.8 14.4 16.0 15.8 18.8 20.4 21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2

▲ 1.6

Chemical

39.0 35.8 32.1 27.5 25.3 25.9 27.3 27.8 31.1 34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0

▲ 1.3

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

36.3 32.9 29.0 23.6 21.5 20.8 22.3 23.6 25.4 29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9

▲ 0.4

General Machinery

37.3 35.4 31.1 25.3 23.6 23.5 24.6 25.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6

0.1

Electrical Machinery

41.0 38.5 32.7 27.6 26.1 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.9 33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1

0.6

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

39.4 36.5 34.2 22.2 18.2 18.1 21.2 24.2 27.8 34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1

0.0

Medical Instruments and Equipment

40.4 39.0 34.8 27.2 26.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 30.2 32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9

0.8

Other

36.9 36.8 31.1 20.7 19.8 23.9 25.2 22.8 26.3 29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5

▲ 0.4

37.6 34.9 30.3 24.7 23.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 27.8 31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4

▲ 0.5

Food,BEWerages

37.3 33.1 25.6 21.3 21.0 24.5 27.3 27.2 30.2 32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8

▲ 2.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

26.2 22.0 16.4 10.3 11.4 15.8 18.2 18.0 19.4 22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2

▲ 1.5

42.8 38.5 34.4 27.9 27.7 29.6 30.2 30.4 31.7 33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7

▲ 1.4

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

34.9 33.5 27.5 22.0 19.1 19.0 21.9 23.2 24.0 26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3

▲ 2.0

Chemical38.7 35.5 33.2 28.9 27.4 27.6 29.2 29.5 30.1 32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3

▲ 1.4

Recycled Resources

30.8 27.1 21.2 18.7 18.8 23.8 24.5 27.8 30.2 32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6

1.2

Mining Products

33.9 31.9 27.8 23.2 22.8 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.4 30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6

▲ 1.4

Machinery,Equipment

41.2 38.2 33.0 25.9 25.1 27.4 29.0 28.6 30.6 33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6

0.2

Other

36.7 31.5 26.5 21.4 19.8 23.1 25.1 25.4 27.6 30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0

▲ 2.6

37.9 34.4 29.4 23.7 23.0 25.3 27.0 27.1 28.9 31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6

▲ 1.2

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing▲ 4.5

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theJan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

39.1 36.7 25.8 26.3 27.4 30.8 30.7 29.1 34.0 38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

28.0 24.2 16.2 11.4

23.6 24.7 24.0 19.9 27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7

0.7

Drugs,Sundries

37.7 34.7 27.5 28.7 25.3 32.7 32.7 31.3 32.6 33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2

▲ 1.1

Furniture

31.9 29.2 22.6 10.8 15.5 31.7 40.0 38.9 38.5 37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4

▲ 1.0

Information Machinery and Equipment

38.2 36.0 28.4 19.3 21.9 33.8 29.8 30.5 30.6 34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3

▲ 1.2

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

36.7 32.9 27.9 17.0 15.8 25.4 29.3 29.3 32.4 34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7

▲ 1.5

Special Merchandise

35.2 34.7 27.4 20.2 19.9 27.7 30.2 30.0 31.6 33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6

▲ 2.1

Various Merchandise

37.4 34.4 29.3 32.3 29.9 34.5 40.9 36.9 37.0 37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7

▲ 0.5

Other

48.1 43.9 31.8 26.9 30.6 31.8 26.7 25.9 33.3 33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3

▲ 3.0

36.3 34.1 26.7 21.2 21.1 29.1 31.0 30.3 32.1 34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9

▲ 1.3

39.5 34.0 27.7 22.4 22.7 21.5 24.2 25.4 28.1 30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0

▲ 1.5

Restaurants

41.0 32.3 14.2

13.8 13.7 12.7 14.5 18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3

▲ 5.0

Postal,Telecommunications

64.6 57.1 50.0 30.3 33.3 43.3 41.7 42.6 46.7 41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3

7.4

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

52.4 46.7 40.5 28.4 32.4 34.4 34.9 42.5 42.5 40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5

3.9

Leasing,Rentals

50.8 46.9 34.0 27.8 29.1 30.2 31.4 32.7 34.5 34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5

▲ 2.7

Lodging, Hotels

38.5 23.2

7.0

1.5

2.9

4.8

3.4

▲ 8.5

Recreation

39.4 35.7 17.0

5.6

9.3

11.5 17.5 22.9 22.4 23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0

▲ 3.0

Broadcasting

38.1 38.9 29.8 22.9 22.5 26.7 25.6 34.5 33.3 34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3

▲ 5.9

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

46.4 42.6 36.0 27.5 26.6 29.9 33.2 34.1 36.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3

▲ 2.3

Advertising40.0 34.1 21.3 11.3 10.7 14.3 19.0 18.0 20.4 21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2

▲ 2.3

Information

56.5 54.2 43.9 33.7 34.0 35.8 37.2 37.9 38.9 40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3

0.1

Labor Dispatching

49.2 42.5 34.1 21.0 20.0 25.3 24.6 25.4 26.7 29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6

0.1

Special Services

50.3 45.8 40.4 31.4 32.2 35.0 36.7 36.1 40.0 40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8

▲ 2.2

Medical,Welfare,Public Health47.8 43.2 35.9 26.4 26.1 30.5 29.9 31.0 31.4 33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7

▲ 2.1

Education

41.4 40.0 29.7 13.9 18.8 28.0 29.5 31.7 34.0 34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3

▲ 0.7

Other

46.2 39.8 29.2 21.2 21.8 26.6 28.7 28.4 31.1 31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9

▲ 1.7

49.5 45.1 35.3 25.8 26.1 29.4 31.2 31.8 33.9 35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9

▲ 1.8

42.7 39.2 29.8 24.4 26.2 27.1 29.3 28.8 31.5 28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5

▲ 1.3

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

Total

Other

4.3

8.8

5.5

5.1

6.0

12.4 27.2 28.8 11.9

▲ 0.8

Ratio to theJan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido42.4 39.0 31.0 28.4 27.5 30.6 32.3 33.4 34.4 36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4

▲ 0.6

Tohoku38.8 36.7 30.7 26.0 25.3 28.5 29.7 30.4 32.6 34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8

▲ 1.6

kitakanto

39.4 36.9 31.8 25.8 24.5 26.2 27.1 28.0 30.6 33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9

▲ 1.0

minamikanto

44.5 41.1 34.1 26.3 25.5 28.4 29.7 30.4 32.3 34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0

▲ 1.2

Hokuriku

37.6 35.6 29.7 24.9 25.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.0 31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7

▲ 2.3

Tokai

40.6 37.3 31.4 23.7 23.4 25.3 27.0 27.7 30.3 32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1

▲ 1.2

Kinki

39.8 36.3 30.4 23.9 23.8 25.9 27.8 28.1 29.5 32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1

▲ 0.8

Chugoku

41.2 39.0 33.8 27.0 25.7 27.2 29.4 29.7 32.0 34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5

▲ 0.3

Shikoku42.7 39.5 36.4 30.8 28.5 30.3 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8

▲ 1.6

Kyushu45.2 41.5 35.3 27.5 27.4 29.7 32.5 31.8 34.2 36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3

▲ 1.6

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research January 2021

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Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,695; Valid
responses: 11,441; Response rate: 48.3%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

563
785
883
3,452
604

Kyushu

1,273
1,956
661
386
878

Total

11,441

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

76

Finance127

Construction

1,893

Real Estate

372

Manufacturing（3,136）Wholesale（3,002）Retail（457）

Food,Beverages

71

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33

Drugs,Sundries

21

Furniture

16

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

33

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

387

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

122

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

237

Special Merchandise138

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

102

Various Merchandise

50

Publishing,Printing

186

OthersChemical424

Transportation,Warehousing

493

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

543

Restaurants

65

General Machinery

510

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

351

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

11

9
20

106

Leasing,Rentals

128

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

77

Lodging, Hotels

39

Others91

Recreation

64

Food,Beverages

412

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

203

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,842）

17

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

184

358

Advertising

110

100

Information

493

286

Labor Dispatching

66

38

Special Services

292
125

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

302

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment939

Education

Others364

Others26
204
43

OthersTotal

3.Size84

Large Firms

2,007

17.5%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,434

82.5%

micro Firms

3,426

29.9%

Total

11,441100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,441

TDB Trends Research January 2021

4

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted January 18 – 31 2021

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms
No. of Employee: Below 20
No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5
No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

EconomicDI
Totalof (Pointsfor eachcategory× Numberof responsesfor eachcategory) 1
× × 100＝
N
Numberof valid responses
6∑ i × N × 1 × 100
≡
6

i ≡0

N

i

6

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TDB Trends Research January 20215