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Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation(for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 4, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the ProjectCountry: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project: Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 1) (II)Loan Agreement: November 22, 2021
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Development Sector and the Priority of
the Project in Bangladesh
The population of Dhaka increased from 6.62 million to 17.6 million between
1990 and 2015 (United Nations Population Division, 2018). This population
increase has caused a rapid increase in transportation demand, which in turnhas led to chronic traffic congestion and air pollution. As a result, the averagevehicle travel speed in Dhaka was 6.4 km/h in 2014, which is less than halfthat of central Tokyo (14.7 km/h, according to the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in 2015). Economic loss due to traffic
congestion are estimated to be billions of dollars per year (World Bank 2018).
In terms of air pollution, the annual average PM10 concentration is 146 μg/m3,
which is much higher than the environmental standard set by the World HealthOrganization (20μg/m3 - 70μg/m3). WHO points out that emissions fromvehicles are responsible for roughly 40% of air pollution in Dhaka, and isconcerned that emissions from such traffic conjestion could harm the healthof residents in the Dhaka metropolitan area. These factors have worsened thecountry’s investment climate, creating a major bottleneck for economic andsocial development.
In the Revised Dhaka Strategic Urban Transport Plan (hereinafter referred toas the “RSTP”), development of five lines of the mass rapid transit system(hereinafter referred to as the “MRT”) and two routes of the bus rapid transit
system (hereinafter referred to as the “BRT”) were planned as public transport
networks. The Eighth Five Year Plan (FY2021-FY2025) sets a major goal ofcomprehensive economic growth, which benefits all the people including thepoor. In addition, it aims infrastructure development for the realization of abalanced urban transportation system in the “Transportation andVer 2021/04

Communication” sector.
The Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 1) (hereinafterreferred to as the “Project”) develops the MRT Line 1, which connects
Kamalapur Station in the central area of Dhaka City with Dhaka International
Airport and Purbachal District, a new residential area in the east Dhaka
Metropolitan Area. From the perspective of transport demand, the MRT Line
1 is considered as a prioritized development initiative in the RSTP along with
the MRT Line 5, which connects east and west Dhaka, and the MRT Line 6,
which connects north and south Dhaka.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Urban
Development Sector
Japan’s Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (February 2018) has set
forth the priority area of “accelerating inclusive economic growth,” withinitiatives for developing transport infrastructure with diversified modes oftransport and promoting the efficient movement of people and goods. In
addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for Bangladesh (March 2019)
identifies urban development including urban transport as a priority issue The
Project is thus consistent with this analysis and policy. Additionally, since it will
help alleviate traffic congestion in the Dhaka metropolitan area, and reduce
the negative environmental impact of air pollution, the Project will also
contribute to the achievement of SDGs 9 (Industry, Innovation, andInfrastructure), 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and 13 (Climate
Action).
JICA’s recent major assistance activities in the urban development sector
include the Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Tranche 1 Loan
Agreement signed in 2012, Tranche 2 Loan Agreement signed in 2016,
Tranche 3 Loan Agreement signed in 2018, Tranche 4 Loan Agreement
signed in 2020) (Note: MRT Line 6), the Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit
Development Project (Line 1) (Engineerin Service Loan Agreement signed in2017, Phase 1 Loan Agreement signed in 2019), the Dhaka Mass Rapid
Transit Development Project (Line 5 Northern Route) (Engineerin Service
Loan Agreement signed in 2018, Tranche 1 Loan Agreement signed in 2020,
the Project on the Revision and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan for
Dhaka (Technical Cooperation, FY 2014-2016), the Project for Establishmentof Clearing House for Integrating Transport Ticketing System in Dhaka City
Area (Phase 1) (Technical Cooperation, FY 2014-2018), the Project forVer 2021/04

Establishment of Clearing House for Integrating Transport Ticketing System
in Dhaka City Area (Phase 2) (Technical Cooperation, FY 2019-2022),
Technical Assistance for Mass Rapid Transit Safety Management System ofLine 6 (Technical Cooperation, FY 2020-2023), and the Project forDevelopment of Policy and Guidelines for Transit Oriented Development
along Mass Transit Corridors (Technical Cooperation, FY 2021-2024).
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
In addition to assisting the establishment of the Dhaka Strategic Urban
Transport Plan, the World Bank implemented the Clean Air and Sustainable
Environment Project, which supports detailed design of the BRT Route 3
south section (between Airport Station and Jhilmil), from 2009 to 2016. The
Asian Development Bank has been implementing the Greater Dhaka
Sustainable Urban Transport Corridor Project to develop the BRT Route 3
north section (between Gazipur and Airport Station) since 2010. It is also
providing assistance for the MRT Line 5 Southern Route (between Gabtoli
and Aftabnagar stations).
３．Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to alleviate the traffic congestion and mitigate
the air pollution in Dhaka city and its adjacent areas by constructing a mass
rapid transit system, thereby contributing to economic development andimproving urban environment.
(2) Project Site / Target Area
Dhaka and Narayanganj Districts(3) Project Components
1) Construction of a depot (land development, construction of depot buildings,
railway sidings, etc.)
2) Construction of railway structures (total length of approx. 30km,
construction of 19 stations, etc.)
3) Installation of railway system (track works, electric system,
telecommunication system, signal systems, etc.)
4) Procurement of rolling stocks (200 cars)5) Detailed design and Basic design Consulting services (F/S review, basic
design, detailed design, tender assistance, etc.)
6) Supervision Consulting services (Construction supervision, Operation and
Maintenace assistance, etc.)

Ver 2021/04(4) Estimated Project Cost
736,213 million Yen (Loan Amount in this tranche: 115,027 million Yen)
(5) Schedule
June 2017 (Loan Agreement of E/S loan) - May 2030 (156 months in total).
The Project will be completed upon the opening of all sections (August2027).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL)
4) Operation and Maintenance : DMTCL(7) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity
The yen-loan project, the Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project
and the Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 5 Northern
Route), will be constrcted, which are planned to cross the Project. In
addition, the construction of a new terminal at the airport to connect to theProject is planned under the Japanese ODA Loan project, “Hazrat
Shahjalal International Airport Expansion Project.” Furthermore, based on
the outcomes of the technical cooperation, “Project for Establishment ofClearing House for Integrating Transport Ticketing System in Dhaka City
Area (Phase 1),” the technical cooperation, “Project for Establishment ofClearing House for Integrating Transport Ticketing System in Dhaka City
Area (Phase 2)” aims to establish a framework for making smart cards
more widespread as well as to fully introduce and institutionalize the smart
card payment system. Additionally, under the technical cooperation,“Technical Assistance for Mass Rapid Transit Safety Management Systemof Line 6”, support for capacity development to establish and implement
DMTCL’s operational safety management system will be introduced.
Furthermore, under the technical cooperation, “Project for Development of
Policy and Guidelines for Transit Oriented Development along Mass
Transit Corridors,” there will be support concerning strategic urban
development planning around MRT stations for officials of RAJUK.
2) Other Donors’ Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Cross-Sectoral Issues/Gender
Category

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1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The project falls into the railway sector, andis likely to have significant adverse impact due to its characteristic
under the JICA guidelines for environmental and social considerations(April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Report for the Project was approved by the Department of Environment
in November, 2017. Later, in October 2018, the EIA report was revised
due to change of station location, and submitted to the Ministry ofEnvironment. Environmental Clearance Certificate (ECC), which needs
to be renewed annually in Bangladesh, was renewed in November
2020.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: Measures for air quality, noise, and vibration
during construction, such as regular water sprinkling and installation ofa temporary fence, will be taken for minimizing their impacts. The noiselevel after opening exceeds the noise standards in the country, but it isexpected to satisfy the noise standards of conventional railways inJapan by the installation of long rails, sound insulation walls, etc.
Deterioration of water quality is expected to be avoided by the
introduction of wastewater treatment facilities from stations and rollingstock yards. The Project will generate construction surplus soil
(approximately 2.4 million m3 ) by the underground tunnel excavation,
but most of the surplus soil will be reused for reclamation and banking
by DMTCL and private companies, and the rest will be disposed ofappropriately at the soil disposal site secured by DMTCL.
⑤ Natural Environment: The project target area does not fall undernational parks and other vulnerable areas or their vicinities, andadverse effects on the natural environment are assumed to be minimal.
⑥ Social Environment: The Project is expected to involve land acquisitionof approximately 39 ha and resettlement of 534 households. The landacquisition and resettlement of residents will proceed in accordancewith Bangladesh’s domestic laws and the Resettlement Action Plan,
which was formulated based on the JICA Guidelines for Environmental
and Social Considerations. At the residents' consultation, there was ademand for sufficient compensation and prior information disclosure,Ver 2021/04

so compensation and resettlement procedures reflecting the requests
of affected residents will be carried out. At present, no particular
objection to the Project has been made by affected residents.
⑦ Other / Monitoring: In the Project, the contractor will monitor air quality,
noise, vibration, water quality, and waste during construction, under thesupervision of the executing agency, and the executing agency will
monitor noise, vibration, and water quality after opening. NGOs
entrusted by DMTCL will monitor the progress of land acquisition andresettlement procedures and livelihood recovery support.
⑧ Cross-Cutting Issues: The Project is expected to have an effect of
mitigating climate change (GHG emissions reduction) of approximately
63,421 tons/year (CO2 equivalent). In addition, regarding the stationbuildings and facilities subject to the Project, barrier-free-based urban
railway technical standards, which have been developed in thetechnical assistance related to ODA loan called the Preparation ofRules and Regulations under Urban Mass Rapid Transit Act (Dhaka,Bangladesh), will be adopted, and slopes and tiles for guiding thevisually impaired will be installed to give consideration to persons withdisabilities. Under the civil engineering package to be procured fisrtly
under the Project, COVID-19 prevention measures will be taken suchas measuring their temperatures, wearing masks, washing their hands,
and attending on public education and awareness activities, etc. Samemeasures will be taken for subsequently procured packages as well.
2) Category of Gender: GI (S) (Integrated gender activity project)
Activities / reason for Categorization: A gender action plan will be
introduced in the Project, including operation of women-only cars in rush
hours and installation of security cameras in the trains and stations, toensure the safety of women in the trains and stations and to enhance
understanding of gender issues.
Other Important Issues: The introduction of advanced Japanesetechnologies (e.g. rolling stocks, electrical/signaling systems, civilengineering technology, etc.) to achieve high-quality infrastructure ispossible.
４. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

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Baseline(Actual Value in2018)

Target (2029)【Expected value 2
years after projectcompletion】

Passenger transportation volume (1,000 people/kg/day)(Between Kamalapur Station and Airport Station)

N/A

6,216

Passenger transportation volume (1,000 people/kg/day)(Between Notun Bazar Station and Purbachal Terminal
Station)

N/A

4,264

Number of services (Number of trains/day)(Between Kamalapur Station and Airport Station)

N/A

146

Number of services (Number of trains/day)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Notun Bazar
Station)N/A

67

Number of services (Number of trains/day)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Kamalapur
Station)N/A

54

Train operating distance (km/day)(Between Kamalapur Station and Airport Station)

N/A

4,311

Train operating distance (km/day)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Notun Bazar
Station)

N/A

2,013

Train operating distance (km/day)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Kamalapur
Station)

N/A

2,535

Time required (minutes)(Between Kamalapur Station and Airport Station)

139

24.3

Time required (minutes)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Notun Bazar
Station)

117

20.4

Time required (minutes)(Between Purbachal Terminal Station and Kamalapur
Station)

207

36.2

Train operation rate (%)

N/A

92.6

Indicator

Ver 2021/04(2) Qualitative Effects
Facilitation of transportation, development of Bangladesh’s economy throughthe reduction of economic losses by reducing traffic congestion, mitigation ofclimate change through the reduction of GHG emissions by promoting amodal shift to public transportation and prevention of air pollution etc, .
(3) Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal Rateof Return (EIRR) will be 14.9%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) willbe 3.7%.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs (excluding tax) and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Reduction in vehicle operation costs, travel time, greenhouse gas, etc.
Project Life: 39 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project costs and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Fare revenues
Project Life: 39 years
５. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Factors: N/A
６. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The results of the ex-post evaluation of India's Kolkata Subway Construction
Project revealed that, with projects that involve land acquisition and relocation offacilities, it is important to actively incorporate ideas from residents and parties
involved from the planning and implementation phase. In addition, the ex-post
evaluation of the Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project (I)-(IV) in India(evaluated in 2010) showed that construction delays were prevented because theexecuting agency (Delhi Metro Rail Corporation), not the water authorities orother such parties, relocated the underground installations.
Based on the lessons above, the Project was intended to determine the scaleof the land acquisition and resettlement areas in the feasibility study stage andstarted discussions with stakeholders at an early stage during the detailed designphase of the E/S Loan through consulting services for environmental and social
considerations. A geological survey, underground utilities survey, undergroundobstacle survey, and cultural asset survey will be conducted during the detailed
design phase. In order to prevent construction delays and cost overruns resulting

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from geological conditions, underground installations, underground obstacles,
and cultural assets, while the executing agency DMTCL will relocate and remove
underground installations and coordinate the relocation and removal work with
relevant agencies.
７. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development issues and development
policies of Bangladesh, as well as the assistance policies and analyses of theGovernment of Japan and JICA. Through the development of a mass rapid transit
system, the Project will help alleviate traffic congestion in the Dhaka metropolitanarea, which is becoming increasingly severe, and help reduce the negativeenvironmental impact of air pollution, thereby contributing to the achievement ofSDGs 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), 11 (Sustainable Cities andCommunities), and 13 (Climate Action). Therefore, the necessity for JICA to
support the Project is substantial.
８. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Sections 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the project completion
END