TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for August 2021)

A spike in the number of infections put a crimp in
the economy

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp～ The effects of heavy rainfalls and prolonged rains also exerted downward
pressure, with a significant drop related to consumer spending ～(Companies researched: 24,458; Valid responses: 11,170; Response rate: 45.7%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry: The economy worsened in nine of the ten industries. A
significant drop was particularly evident in consumer spending-related
businesses.

< Overview of August 2021: Temporarily at a standstill >The economic diffusion index (DI) in August 2021 was 39.2, down 1.5 points
from the previous month, and worsening for the first time in three months. Dueto the surge in the number of infected people combined with the effects of record
rainfalls, the domestic economy has temporarily come to a standstill.

By size: The economy worsened in all sizes for the first time in threemonths. A worsening was prominent among food and beverage-related
SMEs.
By region: All ten regions worsened for the first time in three months. The
expanded and extended state of emergency had an impact.

< Future outlook: After temporary stagnation, gradual recovery >The economy is expected to continue a gradual recovery, although it
is temporarily stagnant due to the declaration of a state of emergency,
etc.
55

50
45
40
35

30
25
200

29.7

31.6

33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9

35.8

38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1

40.7 39.2 39.3 40.0 40.7 41.3 41.4 42.0

After 3 months

42.7 43.0 43.3

After 6 months

43.8 44.6 44.9

After 1 year

After 1 month（Prediction→）

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
2020
2021
2022
Projected future DI 29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2 39.3 40.0 40.7 41.3 41.4 42.0 42.7 43.0 43.3 43.8 44.6 44.9
Change from Aug.2021
0.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.4 5.7
Upper
41.2 42.3
43.1
43.5model.
44.3 45.1 45.6 46.0 46.7 47.6 48.1*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are 40.1
incorporated
to the
ARIMA
Lower
38.5 38.8 39.2 39.5 39.4 39.8 40.3 40.4 40.6 41.0 41.6 41.8

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2021

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to theAug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

Previous
Month

Total

29.7 31.6 33.8 35.4 35.0 33.9 35.8 38.0 38.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 39.2

▲ 1.5

Large Firms

32.4 33.9 36.4 37.6 37.4 36.3 38.2 40.2 40.8 40.2 41.9 42.9 41.4

▲ 1.5

Small to Medium-sized Firms

29.1 31.1 33.3 34.9 34.5 33.4 35.3 37.5 37.7 36.9 38.5 40.2 38.8

▲ 1.4

Micro Firms

30.0 32.0 33.9 35.2 34.2 32.8 34.7 36.7 36.3 35.6 37.1 38.4 37.4

▲ 1.0

Ratio to theAug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

31.0 30.3 34.4 38.7 35.4 30.9 33.8 35.0 37.5 37.7 39.1 38.5 37.0

▲ 1.5

Finance32.6 35.3 38.3 37.7 35.6 36.1 38.3 39.2 38.3 39.5 41.7 42.8 39.7

▲ 3.1

Construction

38.4 40.4 41.1 41.8 40.9 39.4 40.6 41.6 41.4 40.0 41.6 42.7 42.5

▲ 0.2

Real Estate

33.1 35.6 36.4 36.8 36.4 35.5 38.3 40.6 40.8 39.4 40.9 41.8 39.4

▲ 2.4

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed30.5 32.0 34.2 36.0 32.5 30.7 30.8 34.4 35.2 33.6 34.0 35.5 32.8

▲ 2.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

20.3 23.5 24.7 26.8 26.1 24.5 26.0 26.8 28.7 29.2 29.3 31.0 29.3

▲ 1.7

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

29.8 31.3 35.1 35.4 36.0 37.3 37.2 37.8 39.3 38.6 40.1 42.5 41.2

▲ 1.3

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

22.9 24.1 26.2 29.2 29.3 27.6 29.4 33.0 34.3 33.5 34.9 37.2 36.6

▲ 0.6

Publishing,Printing

18.8 20.4 21.9 22.7 21.8 20.2 22.2 26.0 27.2 24.2 27.1 27.4 25.6

▲ 1.8

Chemical27.8 31.1 34.4 37.7 39.3 38.0 40.9 43.3 44.2 44.3 44.5 46.3 45.0

▲ 1.3

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

23.6 25.4 29.2 33.1 34.3 33.9 37.0 39.3 40.5 39.9 43.4 46.4 45.1

▲ 1.3

General Machinery

25.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 33.5 33.6 36.9 41.2 42.1 42.2 43.7 45.9 46.6

0.7

Electrical Machinery

27.7 28.9 33.0 34.8 35.5 36.1 39.6 42.6 43.2 42.8 45.0 46.8 45.9

▲ 0.9

Transportation Machinery,Equipment24.2 27.8 34.9 36.3 40.1 40.1 40.3 45.3 45.2 45.3 47.1 50.6 48.2

▲ 2.4

Medical Instruments and Equipment

29.6 30.2 32.7 35.5 37.1 37.9 42.4 44.6 45.6 48.7 49.1 50.5 50.9

0.4

Other

22.8 26.3 29.0 29.6 31.9 31.5 31.4 34.1 35.3 33.0 34.1 37.6 33.9

▲ 3.7

25.9 27.8 31.0 33.3 33.9 33.4 35.6 38.5 39.5 39.0 40.6 42.7 41.5

▲ 1.2

Food,BEWerages

27.2 30.2 32.0 31.6 29.5 26.8 29.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 30.7 31.3 29.1

▲ 2.2

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

18.0 19.4 22.6 22.3 22.7 21.2 19.8 23.9 23.1 21.7 22.5 22.8 21.2

▲ 1.6

30.4 31.7 33.9 35.9 36.1 34.7 34.8 36.7 37.2 36.5 36.3 37.8 37.7

▲ 0.1

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

23.2 24.0 26.9 26.7 28.3 26.3 29.3 32.2 32.4 30.6 31.4 31.2 29.2

▲ 2.0

Chemical29.5 30.1 32.3 36.1 35.7 34.3 37.7 39.1 40.9 40.7 42.0 42.4 40.7

▲ 1.7

Recycled Resources

27.8 30.2 32.9 38.7 44.4 45.6 42.4 45.4 55.1 53.4 52.0 53.7 51.4

▲ 2.3

Mining Products

25.3 26.4 30.5 32.1 34.0 32.6 33.4 36.0 37.2 37.5 38.7 41.1 41.1

0.0Machinery,Equipment

28.6 30.6 33.1 34.6 34.4 34.6 36.7 39.5 40.1 39.0 40.7 43.1 41.3

▲ 1.8

Other

25.4 27.6 30.6 33.0 31.6 29.0 31.3 34.4 34.1 32.2 35.5 36.6 33.0

▲ 3.6

27.1 28.9 31.5 33.0 32.8 31.6 33.3 35.8 36.2 35.3 36.8 38.3 36.6

▲ 1.7

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Precision Machinery,

Total

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

.

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2021

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theAug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

29.1 34.0 38.8 37.0 34.6 33.8 33.1 34.1 32.8 32.6 34.9 37.5 36.0

▲ 1.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

24.0 19.9 27.8 23.7 22.0 22.7 21.4 23.3 25.0 21.2 20.3 25.0 21.4

▲ 3.6

Drugs,Sundries

31.3 32.6 33.3 29.8 31.3 30.2 32.5 31.1 35.8 29.3 31.4 32.5 33.3

0.8

Furniture

38.9 38.5 37.5 38.9 35.4 34.4 36.7 38.9 42.7 40.6 39.8 36.9 34.6

▲ 2.3

Information Machinery and Equipment

30.5 30.6 34.2 33.3 29.5 28.3 36.3 34.4 37.8 30.8 35.8 37.7 33.8

▲ 3.9

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

29.3 32.4 34.6 40.2 37.2 35.7 37.6 37.0 38.3 38.6 40.7 40.5 36.8

▲ 3.7

Special Merchandise

30.0 31.6 33.9 33.3 34.7 32.6 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 32.6

▲ 1.7

Various Merchandise

36.9 37.0 37.6 37.3 39.2 38.7 36.2 37.3 32.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 27.3

▲ 8.3

Other

25.9 33.3 33.3 34.8 33.3 30.3 33.3 35.0 40.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.0

1.3

30.3 32.1 34.8 35.0 34.2 32.9 34.5 34.9 34.7 33.1 34.5 35.4 32.7

▲ 2.7

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service25.4 28.1 30.1 32.5 31.5 30.0 31.7 33.9 34.5 33.7 34.5 36.3 36.0

▲ 0.3

Restaurants

12.7 14.5 18.2 21.0 15.3 10.3 12.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 20.5 19.7 14.8

▲ 4.9

Postal,Telecommunications

42.6 46.7 41.7 47.2 38.9 46.3 38.1 43.8 38.9 40.5 27.8 42.9 39.6

▲ 3.3

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

42.5 42.5 40.4 40.0 38.6 42.5 39.5 47.1 40.4 41.2 45.0 40.8 44.4

3.6

Leasing,Rentals

32.7 34.5 34.9 37.5 36.2 33.5 32.8 35.0 35.4 35.0 38.1 41.0 37.4

▲ 3.6

Lodging, Hotels

6.0

11.6 13.0 10.0

▲ 3.0

Recreation

22.9 22.4 23.7 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.8 33.1 25.8 29.5 29.2 34.8 29.2

▲ 5.6

Broadcasting

34.5 33.3 34.4 38.6 42.2 36.3 42.6 51.0 42.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 38.9

▲ 3.3

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

34.1 36.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 36.3 37.5 40.4 39.2 40.8 42.7 41.9 41.6

▲ 0.3

Advertising18.0 20.4 21.1 22.3 22.5 20.2 24.7 26.5 25.6 23.4 27.5 27.5 26.8

▲ 0.7

Information

37.9 38.9 40.1 41.6 41.2 41.3 43.6 45.5 45.2 44.9 46.8 48.2 46.7

▲ 1.5

Labor Dispatching

25.4 26.7 29.2 34.3 31.5 31.6 33.6 34.1 35.8 35.5 36.2 41.9 38.4

▲ 3.5

Special Services

36.1 40.0 40.7 42.5 41.0 38.8 42.9 43.6 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.3 44.4

▲ 2.9

Medical,Welfare,Public Health31.0 31.4 33.6 34.9 34.8 32.7 34.7 37.1 39.1 39.2 41.2 42.1 41.1

▲ 1.0

Education

31.7 34.0 34.7 34.0 34.0 33.3 34.0 32.1 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.3 37.5

▲ 2.8

Other

28.4 31.1 31.6 31.4 32.6 30.9 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.8 37.4 34.7

▲ 2.7

31.8 33.9 35.1 36.8 35.7 33.9 36.5 38.5 37.9 37.5 39.7 41.5 39.1

▲ 2.4

28.8 31.5 28.2 29.4 30.8 29.5 30.5 34.4 34.1 33.3 35.5 34.7 35.3

0.6

Total

Other

12.4 27.2 28.8 11.9

3.4

4.4

10.9

8.6

5.6

Ratio to theAug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

PreviousMonthHokkaido

33.4 34.4 36.0 34.4 33.0 32.4 33.9 35.3 36.2 34.5 37.1 38.3 38.0

▲ 0.3

Tohoku30.4 32.6 34.4 36.0 35.4 33.8 35.4 36.8 38.0 37.7 39.3 40.0 38.4

▲ 1.6

kitakanto

28.0 30.6 33.2 36.6 35.9 34.9 37.2 39.2 39.7 39.5 41.2 42.7 41.5

▲ 1.2

minamikanto

30.4 32.3 34.2 35.3 35.2 34.0 35.9 38.4 38.7 38.4 39.8 41.0 40.0

▲ 1.0

Hokuriku

28.5 30.0 31.8 34.7 35.0 32.7 34.6 38.2 38.6 37.1 39.2 40.6 39.1

▲ 1.5

Tokai

27.7 30.3 32.6 35.6 35.3 34.1 36.1 38.4 38.9 37.9 39.4 42.0 40.0

▲ 2.0

Kinki

28.1 29.5 32.4 34.1 33.9 33.1 35.5 37.4 37.0 36.2 38.1 40.3 38.7

▲ 1.6

Chugoku29.7 32.0 34.3 35.5 34.8 34.5 36.2 37.7 37.8 36.0 37.9 39.0 38.2

▲ 0.8

Shikoku31.5 32.6 33.9 35.3 35.4 33.8 35.4 37.5 36.4 35.8 37.6 38.2 36.9

▲ 1.3

Kyushu31.8 34.2 36.9 37.7 36.9 35.3 37.0 39.0 39.5 37.5 38.3 40.5 37.4

▲ 3.1

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2021

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 24, 458; Valid
responses: 11,170; Response rate: 45.7%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

529
695
840
3,268
593

Kyushu

1,282
1,956
662
419
926

Total

11,170

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

78

Finance

110

Construction

1,822

Real Estate

367

Manufacturing（3,038）Wholesale（2,891）Retail（479）

Food,Beverages

75

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

39

Drugs,Sundries

22

Furniture

13

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

39

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

369

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

116

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

222

Special Merchandise

157

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

103

Various Merchandise

44

Publishing,Printing

180

OthersChemical

413

Transportation,Warehousing

526

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

539

Restaurants

61

General Machinery499

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

321

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

9

8
15

114

Leasing,Rentals

124

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

71

Lodging, Hotels

45

Others91

Recreation

69

Food,Beverages

383

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

187

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

336

Advertising

97

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

105

Information

475

Chemical

279

Labor Dispatching

63

35

Special Services

286
116

Recycled Resources

Service（1,809）18

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing186

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

302

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment912

Education

32

Others352

Others214
50

OthersTotal

3.Size81

Large Firms

1,869

16.7%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,301

83.3%

micro Firms

3,327

29.8%

Total

11,170100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,170

TDB Trends Research August 2021

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted Aug 18 – 31 2021

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 24,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

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TDB Trends Research August 20215