VULNERABILITY ANDRISK ASSESSMENT

Ms. Sh. Altanchimeg
VR 2007
ADRC
1Background
Adoption of the Law on Disaster Protection,Mongolia (2003)
 Establishment of NEMA (2004)
 Necessity to strengthen national disaster management- State Disaster Protection Policy- Disaster Preparedness Plans on national andlocal level- Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
 Hyogo Framework for Action Priority 2:- Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks andenhance early warning
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ContentsI.

Basic Principles and Theoretical BasisII.

Indicators and Criteria for Measuring VulnerabilityIII.

Data for Measuring Vulnerability

IV.

Social Levels and Hazard (In) Dependence in Determining
Vulnerability

V.

Vulnerability Indicators in the Example of Germany

VI.

Local Vulnerability Assessment. Community Based
Disaster Risk Index: Pilot Implementation in Indonesia

VII.

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in Japan

VIII.

Conclusion and Recommendations
3I. BASIC PRINCIPLES AND
THEORETICAL BASIS
UN/ISDR defines risk assessment as:
A methodology to determine the natureand extent of risk by analyzing potential
hazards and evaluating existing
conditions of vulnerability that could
pose a potential threat or harm to people,property, livelihoods and the environment
on which they depend.
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Risk assessment process
RiskA
nalys
is

Identification of Risk Factor

RHazardVulnerability /Capacities isk
Determines
Determines
geographicalsusceptibilities
A
location, intensity& capacities
sand probabilityseEstimates level of risks
Evaluates riskssmSocio-economic cost/benefit analysiseEstablishment of prioritiesn
Establishment of acceptable level of risktElaboration of scenarios and measures

5Definitions
 Risk - Probability and the amount of harmful

consequences or expected losses resulting
from interactions between natural or humaninduced hazards and vulnerable conditions.
(UN/ISDR)
 “Risk of disaster” means probability ofpossible damage to population, livestock,property or environment posed by disaster;(Law on Disaster Protection of Mongolia)
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Definitions
 Vulnerability - The conditions determined byphysical, social, economic and environmental
factors or processes, which increase thesusceptibility of a community to the impact ofhazards. (UN/ISDR) “Disaster vulnerability” means susceptibilityof population, livestock, property or
environment to disasters. (Law on DisasterProtection of Mongolia)
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DISASTER RISKHAZARDEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYCAPACITY AND
MEASURES

Probability
Severity

Structures
Population
EconomyPhysicalSocialEconomic
EnvironmentalPhysicalplanning
Social capacity
Economic
capacity
Management84II. INDICATORS AND CRITERIA FOR
MEASURING VULNERABILITY
Phases of Indicator Development

definition of a goal clarifying scope of the indicator by identifying thetarget group
 the identification of the conceptual framework
 the definition of selection criteria for the potentialindicators
 the identification of a set of potential indicators
 evaluation and selection of each indicator collection of data preparation of a report assessment of the indicator performance

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Criteria for Selection of Sound
Indicators:











measurable
relevant to topic and policy
only measure important key-elements
analytically and statistically soundunderstandable
easy to interpret
sensitive and specific to the underlying phenomenon
validity/accuracy
reproducible
based on available data
data comparability
appropriate scope
cost effective
105III. DATA FOR MEASURING
VULNERABILITY Major problem - the gathering of accurate,

reliable and accessible data
- currently available data (impacts ofpast disasters)- gathering new data (questionnaires;interviews)
11IY. SOCIAL LEVELS AND HAZARD (IN)
DEPENDENCE IN DETERMINING
VULNERABILITY

Goal - to specify where and how many
people are living at risk of natural
disasters and to what disasters they are
most vulnerable

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The Social Levels of Vulnerability
 individual household administrative community cultural community
 national regional.

13Hazard - (in) Dependent Vulnerability
 Hazard independent parameters - the strength or

weakness of an individual or a people to withstandstresses derived from their exposure to any naturalhazard:
income, health and education, access to information, theexistence of national disaster plans Hazard-dependent parameters - people’svulnerability to the impact of given hazard:
quality of building, construction of dams, social andcultural aspects, such as drought preparedness or thepercentage of the population vaccinated147

Y. VULNERABILITY INDICATORSIN THE EXAMPLE OF GERMANY Vulnerability -the characteristics of a person
or a group in terms of their capacity toanticipate, cope with, resist and recover fromthe impact of a natural or human-made disaster– noting that vulnerability is made up of many
political-institutional, economic and sociocultural factors (The Federal Office of Civil
Protection and Disaster Assistance in Germany(BBK))
15Natural system observations
Inventory
Accounting
Data
Thematic events map

Hazard potential
Sector domain
Intensity or magnitude
Probability of occurrence

Vulnerability
Value (material, people, infrastructure)
Injuries
Resiliency
Need for indicator

Risk assessment
Risk=function (hazard, vulnerability, value)

Protection goals/risk acceptanceUnacceptable risk
Acceptable risk

Planning measures
Minimization of risk through best possible
management policies

Implementation andperiodic review

Land use planning
Structural measures (building codes)
Early warning systems

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Vulnerability Indicators
 The local level The regional level The national level Target groups and objects forvulnerability indicators
 Types of disaster

17YI. LOCAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTCOMMUNITY-BASED DISASTER RISK INDEX:PILOT IMPLEMENTATION IN INDONESIA

Disaster Risk Index:- based on a comprehensive indicator system- to gather data on local disaster risk
- to identify the main risk aspects in cooperation
with the community
Developed a questionnaire
The indicator system - 47 individual indicators
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Indicator system

Index system

4 factor scores
47 single indicators

Scoring andweighting

1 risk index

Figure 7.1 Indicator and index system

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YIII. RISK AND VULNERABILITYASSESSMENT IN JAPANRisk Assessment Methods Used In Japan aimed at: Identifying, monitoring and evaluating earthquakerisks
 Detecting vulnerabilities in physical structures Detecting and monitoring new and existing
vulnerable groups in the population
 Identifying secondary effects of earthquakes,
including business interruption costs
 Integrating different types of risk and vulnerability
data
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10

Insurance Oriented Risk Assessment

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Process of Risk Mapping:2211

IX. CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
 Impossible to draw a universal conclusion that fits

all concepts and methodologies on assessment
 Different assessment methodologies have to be
combined or used simultaneously to provide morecomprehensive information A decision about whether to use qualitative andquantitative assessment tools depends both on thelevel of the approach, its focus and functions
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Recommendations for Further Risk
Assessment in Mongolia
1. Set up expert team;
2. Identify key bodies involved and define their roles andresponsibilities;
3. Review existing studies;
4. Develop method for collecting, sharing data and information;
5. Establish a process to review and update risk data;
6. Characterize and prioritize natural hazards and evaluate historicaldata;
7. Develop integrated hazard maps;
8. Conduct vulnerability and capacity assessments;
9. Develop risk analysis;
10.Assess interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities to determine therisks;
11.Develop papers and policy documents with recommendations
and a strategic plan.
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THANK YOU !

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