SEVENTH IN THE SERIES

Undergraduate Degree Earners
January 2021

Undergraduate Degree Earners

HIGHLIGHTSThe steady growth in undergraduate credential earners has cometo a standstill for the first time in the eight years since we started
tracking these data. The latest data reveals that the 3.7 million new
graduates in the 2019-20 academic year represent no growth fromthe previous year.

The Undergraduate Degree Earners report series,
published annually, provides demographic
and educational profile data for all students
graduating with an undergraduate credential
each year. Undergraduate credentials may
include associate and bachelor’s degrees andcertificates.

Although total graduate numbers remained the same, first-time
graduates decreased (-1%) while non-first-time completers, thoseearning stacked credentials, continued to increase (2.7%).

In the current report, we profile graduates in the
2019-20 academic year, with a focus on first-timeversus non-first-time graduates, and changes indemographics and education credentials received
over the last eight academic years, since 2012-13.
The Appendix provides state-level and regional
trends, in addition to the national graduate
profiles by age and type of credential received.

Associate degree and certificate recipients in late spring 2020account for much of the loss in first-time graduates, reflecting thedisproportionate effects of COVID-19 on community college students.
However, non-first-time graduates earning sub-baccalaureate
credentials continued to grow.

The upward trend in the total number of undergraduate credential earners has stalled in 2020, remaining at 3.7
million due to a decline in first-time graduates.
The total number of undergraduate credential earners in 2019-20 remained the same as the prior year, halting its steadyannual rise for the first time since 2012-13 when tracking started. While graduates with prior awards maintained an upward
trend each year, first-time undergraduate credential earners declined by 26,000 students, or 1 percent, in 2020 from theprevious year, following a 1.3 percent growth (Figure 1).

Millions

Figure 1. Overall Undergraduate Credential Earners

3
2.63

2.65

2.66

2.65

2.66

2.68

2.71

2.69

0.86

0.89

0.97

0.84

0.94

0.81

0.92

0.80

2

1

First-Time Graduates

Graduates with Prior Awards

0

2012-132013-142014-152015-16

2016-172017-18

2018-192019-20

Cohort Year© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

1

3.4%

3.4%

14.0%

14.1%

14.3%

14.7%

15.1%

15.4%

15.5%

16.0%

20.0%

19.9%

20.2%

20.5%

21.0%

21.3%

21.7%

22.0%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

4.9%

5.2%

1.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

1.6%

75.0%

74.5%

74.3%

73.6%

75.4%

75.5%

75.0%

74.7%

74.2%

73.9%

73.4%

73.0%

70%

3.8%

4.0%

4.0

6.9%

7.4%

7.2

6.9%

7.5%

7.7

82.4%

81.1%

81.1

2013-14

3.3%

2012-13

3.4%

2019-20

3.3%

2018-19

3.4%

2017-18

3.3%

2016-17

3.2%

2015-16

5.2%

2014-15

5.3%

2013-14

5.2%

2012-13

5.1%

2019-20

5.1%

2018-19

5.2%

2017-1880%

5.1%

2016-17

90%

5.1%

60%

76.8%

76.5%

76.0%

75.5%

2013-142014-152015-1640%

2012-13

50%

30%
20%

0%

Overall

BA

22.0%

100%
90%
80%

1.5%

1.6%

3.8%
5.1%
6.9%
14.0%
6.9%

4.0%
5.1%
7.4%
14.1%
7.5%

4.0%
5.2%
7.2%
14.3%
7.7%

3.9%
5.1%
7.6%
14.7%
8.0%

4.0%
5.1%

4.1%
5.2%

7.9%
15.1%
7.9%

8.1%
15.4%
8.3%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

3.2%
12.7%

3.3%
12.5%

3.4%
12.8%

3.3%
12.3%

3.4%
12.0%

3.3%
12.3%

3.4%
12.7%

3.4%
12.7%

3.8%

4.0%

4.0%

6.9%

7.4%

7.2%

15.5%
8.5%

8.0%
16.0%
9.2%

20.0%
7.3%

19.9%
7.2%

20.2%
7.6%

20.5%
8.1%

21.0%
8.0%

21.3%
8.4%

21.7%
8.4%

22.0%
8.6%

6.9%

7.5%

7.7%

4.9%

5.2%

7.8%
1.4%

8.2%
1.3%

1.4%
8.8%

1.4%
9.4%

1.4%
10.2%

1.5%
10.1%

1.5%
9.9%

1.6%
10.9%

82.4%

81.1%

81.1

2013-14

21.7%

3.4%

AA

2012-13First-Time Graduates (No Prior Award) Certificate
3.4%

2014-15

10%

4.0%
5.3%
7.7%

4.1%
5.2%

70%
60%
50%

73.4%

73.0%

40%

82.4% 81.1% 81.1% 80.5% 80.1% 79.5% 79.8%
78.7%
76.8% 76.5% 76.0% 75.5% 75.0%
74.5% 74.3% 73.6%

30%

75.4%
74.7%
73.9% 73.4%
72.2% 75.5%
72.1% 75.0%
70.8% 70.2% 74.2%
69.8% 69.2% 68.9% 73.0%
67.8%

20%

AA
OverallTime Graduates (No Prior Award) Certificate

AA

BA+

© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

2014-152019-20

2018-192017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-152013-142012-132019-20

2018-192017-18

2016-17

2015-160%

2014-1510%

2013-142017-18

3.9%

100%

2012-13.5%

Figure 2. Degree Earners by Type of Prior and Current Awards

2019-20

1.3%

Our latest degree awards data demonstrates that COVID-related disruptions have had differential impacts between first-timeand non-first-time graduates, which further revealed the disparity by the educational pathways they traversed.

2018-19.3%

In fact, these two groups of graduates have increasingly diverged over the last eight years. Graduates with prior awards grewby nearly 170,000 students, far outnumbering first-time graduates who only increased by 53,000 students over this period. The
share of stacked credential earners grew from 23 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2019, while the share of first-time graduates
shrank (Figure 2). Overall, though, first-time completers are still the largest share, with three out of every four graduates
earning their first undergraduate credential (Figure 3).

Certificate
BA
First-Time Graduates (No Prior Award) Certificate

2AAFigure 3. 2019-20 College Graduate Profile (N=3.7M)

Figure 4. First-Time Graduates by Type of Award
3,000
2,632

2,647

2,655

2,653

2,659

2,677

2,711

2,685

2,500

All First-Time
Graduates

2,000

Thousands

BA

1,500

1,386

1,410

1,420

1,433

1,450

1,460

1,475

1,503

AA
Certificate

1,000

500

805

788

794

778

768

760

768

738

441

449

442

441

441

457

468

444

0

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Sharp contrasts emerged during the pandemic between first-time and non-first-time graduates, further widening
the disparity.
Much of the decline in overall first-time graduates can be explained by associate degree and certificate earners, whose
numbers dropped sharply at a time when the pandemic began shutting down the US economy and higher education
institutions. Declines among first-time associate degree and certificate earners fell 3.9 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively,
undoing previous improvements (1.0% and 2.3% increases, respectively, as shown in Figure 4). In fact, the number of firsttime associate degree earners is now at the lowest level since 2012-2013 when we started tracking these data. However, the 1
percent decline in overall first-time earners is contrasted with the continued increase in non-first-time graduates, those earning
stacked credentials (up 2.7% from the preceding year).

© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

3

COVID-19 disproportionally affected first-time graduates who earned a sub-baccalaureate credential.
In the year prior to the pandemic, first-time associate degree earners were already on the path of decline, but COVID-19
appears to have accelerated the decline. After the campus shut-downs began in March 2020, their numbers dropped
drastically compared to the pre-pandemic rate, going from a 0.2 percent year-over-year decline between April and June 2019, toa 6.7 percent drop during the same months in 2020 (Figure 5). As context, these three months typically account for more thanhalf of all first-time associate degree earners each year. In 2020, it was during these months that over 90 percent of the decline
occurred.
More evidently, first-time certificate earners fell almost 20 percent within just a few months after campus shut-downs,
compared to a 1.5 percent growth between April and June 2019. Unlike associate degrees, certificates are awarded throughout
the year, where half of all first-time certificate earners complete their credential between July through December. Before
starting to drop in April 2020, their numbers were steadily growing year over year, up 6.2 percent between July and December
in 2019, compared to a 9.4 percent increase over the same period in 2018.
First-time bachelor’s degree earners, in contrast, increased 1.9 percent in 2019-20, or nearly 28,000 more graduates, over theprevious year, continuing a steady growth trend. Notably, their numbers grew more in the early months of the pandemic thanthey did during the same months in the previous year (2.3% and 1.6%, respectively). Out of the additional 28,000 first-timebachelor’s degree earners in 2019-20, 80 percent of their degrees were received between April and June, a period when mostbachelor’s degrees are typically received.
Figure 5. First-Time Graduates by Type of Award and Award Month956,476

AY 2017-18

972,074+1.6%

AY 2018-19

994,243+2.3%

AY 2019-20

450,373447,545442,208

415,320 414,454
312,468
315,691
303,994

BA

AA

-0.2%
-6.7% 216,503 219,707

237,736
204,445

386,650

175,939

223,760
58,37060,84355,72638,78940,70537,72330,74836,42424,452

BA

AA

Cert

Cert

July- Dec

© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

Jan- Mar+1.5%-19.9%
BA

AA

Cert

Apr- June4

First-time bachelor’s degree earners increased only among traditional-aged students.
Decreases in the number of first-time credential earners were observed across all age groups, regardless of the award earned,
with the single exception of bachelor’s degree earners under age 25 (Figure 6). The number of traditional-aged bachelor’s
degree recipients increased 2.9 percent, or by 35,000 students, while their older counterparts (age 25+) continued to decline(-2.8%). As a result, overall traditional-aged first-time graduates increased half a percent from the previous year further widening
the gap from adult students (Figure 7).
For first-time associate degree and certificate earners, large declines among 25- to 29-year-olds were found. Associate degree
earners ages 25-29 dropped more than three times the previous rate to a 7 percent decline. The number of traditional-aged
associate degree earners trended downwards for the first time since 2012 (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Percent Change from 2018 to 2019 in First-Time Graduates by Type of Award and Age at Graduation

Figure 7. First-Time Graduates by Age at Graduation
2,500

Age 24 or Younger
Age 25 and Older
2,000
1,664

1,728

1,764

1,807

1,849

1,898

1,950

1,961

Thousands

1,500

1,000

961

914

886

842

806

776

760

2016-172017-18

2018-19

723

500

0

2012-132013-14© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

2014-152015-162019-20

5

Stacked credentials continue to gain among all undergraduate credential pathways, especially the community
college transfer pathways to the bachelor’s degree.
Bachelor’s degree earners with prior associate degrees drove the 2.7 percent overall growth in graduates with stacked
credentials (Figure 8). These students, who followed the community college transfer pathway to a bachelor’s degree, increased
3.9 percent in 2019-20, more than 17,000 graduates, compared to the prior year (see appendix, Table 1). They representa growing share of all bachelor’s degree recipients (22%) whereas the share who are first-time graduates fell to 73 percent.
Associate degree earners with stacked credentials, declined slightly by 0.8 percent between 2018 and 2019, then grew by 2.2
percent in 2019-20 from the previous year. Associate degree earners with a prior certificate grew even more (4.5%).
Figure 8. Non-First-Time Graduates (Graduates with Prior Awards) by Type of Award

1,000
916

800

795

815

839

860

939

965

886

All Graduates with
Prior Awards
BA

Thousands

600

453

458

473

484

504

516

534

555

AA

Certificate
400

200

204

211

211

191

196

195

199

2016-172017-18

2018-192019-20

169

174

182

187

191

172

183

184

189

2012-132013-142014-152015-160

To summarize, within just a few months after the WHO declared the COVID-19 a global pandemic, the nation has come to a
standstill in undergraduate degree recipients. The pandemic appears to be having differential impacts. It gave a further boost to
students earning a bachelor’s degree as their first-ever completion, yet their sub-baccalaureate counterparts started to drop. In
addition, stacked credentials continued to gain momentum despite the pandemic-induced disruptions.
A lack of overall progress in the nation’s undergraduate earners numbers in 2019-2020 reflects the early pandemic impacts on
postsecondary attainment, particularly for first-time graduates earning a sub-baccalaureate credential. These early effects likely
will persist considering the community college enrollment declines reported in our COVID-19 Stay Informed and Transfer, Mobility
and Progress report series.

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6

METHODOLOGICAL NOTESThe Undergraduate Degree Earners Report provides a basic demographic and education credential profile for all students who
are graduating with an undergraduate-level credential each year, which may include associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees,or certificates. In this report, we profile the undergraduate credential earners during the most recent academic year 2019-20,
focusing on first-time versus non-first-time graduates, and examine change over time in student demographics (gender andage) and credentials attained (AA, BA, or certificates) over the last eight years, since the 2012-13 academic year. Trend data are
analyzed for the nation, as well as by state and by region, all of which can be found in this Appendix. All data prior to the mostrecent year reflects newer and additional data reported to the Student Clearinghouse since publication.
Included in this report is a brief analysis of the pandemic impact on undergraduate degree earners. After replicating the resultswith a fixed panel of institutions between 2018 to 2020 by awarding month, national trends described in this report between
April and June reflect the early pandemic impact.
Definition of First-Time Graduate
Students are considered to be first-time graduates if the credential attained during the reported academic year (July 1 toJune 30) is their first postsecondary award from a Title IV, degree-granting institution in the U.S. Each student is counted asa first-time graduate only once, in the academic year of his or her first postsecondary credential. A student who earned twocredentials in the academic year of his or her first credential is counted under the highest level of credential attained in thatyear. Certificate earners with no prior awards are classified as first-time graduates.
Degree Data Coverage and Weighting
The National Student Clearinghouse collects graduation information from its participating institutions via two data reporting
services: Enrollment Reporting (ER) and DegreeVerify (DV). Enrollment Reporting has slightly higher data coverage rates, but
for credentials reported prior to 2013-14, it generally includes only basic completion information, such as graduation indicatorand the date of graduation. DV includes enhanced information on completions, including degree title, major, level, and CIP
code, and comprised 95 percent of credentials granted by Title IV, degree-granting institutions in the U.S. as of fall 2018. The
overall undergraduate credential earner numbers each year are based only on awards reported to DV, but prior award status
is determined by records from both ER and DV. In cases where the prior award did not appear in a DV record (approximately
1.9% of the 2017 bachelors’ degree earners, 2.7% of associate degree earners and 2.4% of certificate earners), the level of theprior award was imputed based on the institution level and related enrollment records. To adjust for the DV participation rate,
weights were applied to each degree record included in this report. Weights were derived by calculating the inverse of therate of degree data coverage for each combination of year, institution sector, award level (BA, AA or certificate), and student
gender. To obtain degree data coverage for each combination of year, sector, and award level, Clearinghouse degree data werecompared to IPEDS Completions Survey data for all Title IV, degree-granting U.S. institutions.
Imputation of Gender
Gender data were reported for over 80 percent of students included in this report. Missing gender data were imputed using
a table of name-gender pairs that the Research Center developed using data from the Census Bureau and the Social Security
Administration as well as the institution-reported data. The imputation used only those pairs in which the name had at least
two instances and was associated with a single gender in at least 95 percent of the instances. The imputation is accurate in 99.6
percent of the cases with known gender.
Degree-Granting Status
When referencing IPEDS postsecondary awards data, it is important to distinguish degree-granting institutions from nondegree-granting institutions. Clearinghouse certificate and degree data, as well as the IPEDS comparison data used for theweighting calculation in this report, are limited to degrees and certificates awarded by Title IV, degree-granting U.S. institutions.

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7

SUGGESTED CITATION
Huie, F., Liu, Q., Ryu, M., and Shapiro, D. (January 2021), Undergraduate Degree Earners, Herndon, VA: National Student
Clearinghouse Research Center.

© 2021 National Student Clearinghouse. All rights reserved.

8