TDB Trends Research (Nationwide, Research & Summary for August 2023)

The economy worsened slightly as people’s flow
and logistics stagnated due to typhoons～ Rising prices of energy such as gasoline hit consumer confidence ～(Companies researched: 27,667; Valid responses: 11,571; Response rate: 41.8%; Survey
start date: May 2002)

e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp< Trend in August 2023: Worsening slightly >The economic diffusion index (DI) in August 2023 was 44.9, down 0.3
points from the previous month, showing the first deterioration in twomonths.
The economy slightly declined due to factors such as rising energy
prices, including gasoline, and the stagnation of people’s flow andlogistics caused by typhoons landfall.

By industry: Downturn in 7 out of 10 industries. Unseasonable weather,including typhoons landfall, was a negative factor.

< Future outlook: Remain unchanged >By region: Worsened in 7 out of 10 regions. Disruption of transportation
infrastructure affected people’s flow and logistics.

By scale:“Large firms” and “small to medium-sized firms” worsened forthe first time in two months. Polarization continues within each scalegroup.

Amid a mix of positive and negative factors, the domestic economy isexpected to remain almost unchanged.

55

50
45

41.4 41.9

4042.6 43.1 43.0

42.1 42.1

43.9 44.6

45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

44.7 45.0 45.1 45.1

After 3 months
After 1 month45.2 45.4 45.6 45.9

After 6 months

46.3 46.4 46.6

46.6

After 1 year

35300

（Prediction→）

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
2022
2023
2024
Projected future DI
41.4 41.9 42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9 44.7 45.0 45.1 45.1 45.2 45.4 45.6 45.9 46.3 46.4 46.6 46.6
Change from August.2023-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7
Upper
46.4 46.9 47.2 47.3 47.5 47.8 48.1 48.5 48.9 49.1 49.3 49.3*: The economic forecast DI is calculated using the Forecast Combination method of the results of the ARIMA model and the structural equation model.
Lower
43.0 43.1 43.1 42.9 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.9 43.9

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

Aug

Sep

TDB Trends Research August 2023

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2.

Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

Ratio to thePrevious
Month

Total

41.4 41.9 42.6 43.1 43.0 42.1 42.1 43.9 44.6 45.4 45.0 45.2 44.9

▲ 0.3

Large Firms

43.8 43.6 44.2 45.0 44.8 44.8 44.2 46.1 47.3 48.1 47.7 48.6 48.0

▲ 0.6

Small to Medium-sized Firms

41.0 41.6 42.3 42.7 42.6 41.6 41.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 44.5 44.6 44.3

▲ 0.3

Micro Firms

39.8 40.7 41.1 41.4 41.3 40.4 40.9 42.4 42.9 43.9 43.6 43.4 43.5

0.1

Ratio to theAug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

Previous
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

35.9 35.8 36.4 37.7 37.9 37.4 38.9 41.6 42.2 44.8 46.7 42.5 43.0

Finance41.7 43.6 43.2 44.5 44.3 44.8 43.3 44.0 45.0 47.8 48.1 47.4 48.8

1.4

Construction

43.3 44.0 44.2 44.9 44.6 44.1 43.7 45.5 45.6 46.9 46.8 47.8 47.4

▲ 0.4

44.8 45.3 44.0 45.6 44.8 46.1 46.3 47.5 49.6 50.7 50.3 48.8 49.6

0.8

Real Estate
Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed36.1 35.5 38.2 38.8 38.3 38.1 37.0 41.1 42.0 43.7 43.6 43.1 44.5

1.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

32.6 36.2 35.7 36.5 37.9 37.7 39.0 38.6 41.0 42.1 42.0 43.6 42.6

▲ 1.0

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

39.8 40.2 40.9 41.9 41.0 38.0 37.6 37.0 39.7 39.0 38.4 37.9 38.2

0.3

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

36.6 38.0 40.4 40.2 39.2 39.8 36.6 38.6 37.6 38.6 35.8 36.1 36.1

0.0

Publishing,Printing

29.6 30.0 31.8 32.9 32.4 31.7 31.6 34.3 33.9 35.4 33.9 33.4 33.9

0.5

Chemical

42.6 42.3 40.8 40.8 41.5 40.3 39.2 40.1 41.0 40.6 41.6 41.8 41.2

▲ 0.6

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

42.7 43.0 43.9 43.6 43.1 41.7 41.0 41.9 41.1 40.9 40.4 40.7 39.9

▲ 0.8

General Machinery

46.2 45.4 45.8 45.9 44.9 43.3 43.7 43.4 43.8 42.9 41.9 42.9 42.8

▲ 0.1

Electrical Machinery

44.2 45.2 44.8 45.4 44.5 43.3 43.2 42.8 43.2 43.1 43.9 42.9 42.8

▲ 0.1

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

41.2 40.2 42.2 42.1 41.0 38.7 39.6 41.2 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 46.2

0.0

Medical Instruments and Equipment

46.5 46.2 46.1 46.1 46.3 46.5 49.0 46.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 45.4 42.9

▲ 2.5

Other

38.2 37.5 35.4 35.9 37.0 39.1 36.1 40.8 41.9 42.7 42.3 43.8 40.3

▲ 3.5

41.0 41.1 41.6 41.9 41.5 40.4 40.0 41.0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.2

▲ 0.3

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

0.5

Precision Machinery,

Total
Food,BEWerages

35.6 35.8 37.4 38.8 38.2 37.5 38.3 42.1 44.3 45.2 44.9 46.4 47.1

0.7

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

29.9 29.9 32.4 33.1 34.0 34.7 35.9 38.0 41.9 43.1 39.4 39.5 38.0

▲ 1.5

38.5 37.5 39.8 39.5 40.2 38.3 37.2 38.0 39.1 38.4 37.3 38.4 38.0

▲ 0.4

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

33.5 34.5 37.1 37.0 33.8 34.8 35.6 37.3 37.9 40.3 36.5 38.2 38.6

0.4

Chemical

43.0 43.4 42.6 43.8 43.5 42.8 41.7 43.5 44.9 46.8 45.3 45.2 45.1

▲ 0.1

Recycled Resources

39.6 47.0 46.3 43.5 46.2 43.3 43.2 41.7 43.5 40.4 38.9 42.2 40.9

▲ 1.3

Mining Products

39.3 39.8 39.7 40.2 39.9 38.5 37.1 37.8 37.9 38.1 37.5 37.9 34.7

▲ 3.2

Machinery,Equipment

42.6 43.3 44.1 44.1 43.8 43.0 43.3 45.2 45.2 46.0 45.4 45.3 44.7

▲ 0.6

Other

37.7 38.2 39.0 39.6 40.9 40.0 40.9 42.3 43.9 44.9 43.2 42.6 42.7

0.1

39.2 39.6 40.6 41.0 41.0 40.1 40.1 41.9 42.9 43.7 42.5 42.9 42.3

▲ 0.6

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,

Total©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2023

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to theAug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

Previous
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

39.9 40.2 39.6 43.2 42.2 42.3 40.6 42.7 49.1 49.7 46.6 46.2 47.8

1.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33.6 34.9 38.7 38.1 35.4 34.2 35.7 39.7 36.6 38.3 40.4 41.4 41.2

▲ 0.2

Drugs,Sundries

41.9 39.5 38.9 40.6 39.0 37.2 38.5 42.9 47.8 47.4 45.9 45.3 42.6

▲ 2.7

Furniture

36.1 40.0 37.8 36.2 31.0 34.2 33.3 39.5 38.1 34.7 33.3 32.5 30.2

▲ 2.3

Information Machinery and Equipment

32.7 37.1 35.1 35.3 37.2 36.3 37.5 40.2 37.8 40.5 38.6 41.3 40.2

▲ 1.1

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

35.9 38.8 37.6 37.2 35.3 38.2 38.7 40.8 44.0 41.5 40.6 40.9 42.0

1.1

Special Merchandise

34.7 34.0 33.5 35.4 34.8 34.4 35.3 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.1 38.8 38.7

▲ 0.1

Various Merchandise

38.0 36.1 41.3 41.4 42.6 42.5 41.0 43.6 47.8 45.8 44.9 48.1 48.5

0.4

Other

42.3 32.1 36.5 44.9 41.1 42.3 44.8 41.1 41.7 41.1 45.8 46.2 42.2

▲ 4.0

36.3 36.7 36.8 38.2 37.4 37.5 37.7 40.6 42.5 42.4 42.0 41.9 41.8

▲ 0.1

37.3 38.2 40.7 41.6 41.6 38.9 38.0 41.2 42.1 43.4 42.2 43.5 43.3

▲ 0.2

Restaurants

28.1 31.8 39.0 39.1 41.5 38.5 42.4 49.8 50.8 56.7 53.6 55.6 52.2

▲ 3.4

Postal,Telecommunications

47.9 51.9 52.4 50.0 48.3 47.6 44.4 52.8 52.8 58.3 53.3 60.4 54.8

▲ 5.6

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

35.9 36.1 31.1 32.3 36.7 32.4 32.1 39.7 38.9 44.0 44.1 44.8 43.5

▲ 1.3

Leasing,Rentals

44.7 45.6 47.5 48.4 47.4 46.8 47.4 48.1 50.5 49.7 52.1 49.8 49.0

▲ 0.8

Lodging, Hotels

38.0 37.4 53.3 54.8 52.2 48.3 48.0 59.5 62.1 59.8 55.1 56.6 55.5

▲ 1.1

Recreation

40.1 42.2 45.0 43.8 43.2 42.1 44.1 50.9 48.9 50.4 47.6 49.3 48.8

▲ 0.5

Broadcasting

38.3 46.1 43.1 41.7 39.5 40.7 41.1 42.6 44.7 47.4 43.1 44.7 46.1

1.4

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

43.4 42.8 42.8 43.6 45.6 42.9 42.6 45.3 45.8 47.3 48.0 48.4 47.4

▲ 1.0

Advertising

36.7 39.3 40.9 40.3 39.7 40.2 41.4 43.7 46.6 45.0 45.0 44.8 45.2

0.4

Information

52.7 53.0 52.3 53.0 53.6 53.2 53.8 55.5 55.8 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.4

▲ 0.6

Labor Dispatching

49.8 47.4 48.8 46.5 50.0 48.5 47.9 47.3 49.6 50.7 52.0 52.0 50.9

▲ 1.1

Special Services

48.3 49.4 49.0 48.8 48.7 48.5 49.2 50.1 50.9 52.3 51.7 52.2 51.3

▲ 0.9

Medical,Welfare,Public Health41.2 41.7 43.2 43.6 42.8 42.9 41.5 42.2 41.8 44.6 44.8 44.2 43.4

▲ 0.8

Education

39.7 43.7 42.1 42.8 41.2 38.4 41.9 44.4 38.4 42.2 41.4 40.7 43.8

3.1

Other

41.2 42.8 43.3 43.5 44.0 42.2 44.3 46.5 48.6 47.5 49.2 48.2 47.9

▲ 0.3

45.4 46.3 47.1 47.3 47.7 46.6 47.4 50.0 50.8 51.6 51.6 51.7 50.8

▲ 0.9

38.3 37.2 37.9 38.2 36.7 36.5 37.0 38.2 39.2 41.2 39.8 40.9 40.8

▲ 0.1

Electrical Household Appliances,

Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service

Total

Other

Ratio to theAug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23

PreviousMonthHokkaido40.2 40.7 41.2 40.9 40.8 40.1 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.9 45.6 44.8

▲ 0.8

Tohoku38.1 39.3 39.9 40.3 39.4 38.0 37.2 41.1 41.2 41.6 41.7 42.1 41.8

▲ 0.3

kitakanto

43.8 42.5 43.7 43.7 43.1 40.9 41.4 42.6 43.3 43.4 42.8 43.1 43.1

0.0

minamikanto

43.3 43.6 43.8 44.4 44.7 44.1 43.9 45.7 46.7 47.2 47.2 47.4 46.6

▲ 0.8

Hokuriku

40.8 41.7 42.3 42.2 42.2 40.9 41.2 42.1 42.5 44.0 43.7 43.6 43.1

▲ 0.5

Tokai

39.7 40.4 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.0 41.1 42.8 43.3 44.6 43.8 44.4 44.4

0.0

Kinki

41.1 41.5 42.3 43.0 42.7 42.0 41.8 43.6 44.3 45.4 43.9 43.8 43.6

▲ 0.2

Chugoku

40.9 41.8 42.8 43.8 43.4 41.9 41.8 44.1 44.8 44.9 44.7 45.3 44.3

▲ 1.0

Shikoku37.7 38.7 40.3 40.0 39.3 39.0 38.6 40.0 40.7 43.0 41.7 42.6 41.8

▲ 0.8

Kyushu41.3 43.0 44.0 45.1 44.8 44.0 44.8 46.4 48.1 48.5 48.2 48.0 48.3

0.3

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2023

3

Appendix

1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 27, 667; Valid
responses: 11,571; Response rate: 41.8%)
1.Region

Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

528
756
932
3,461
591

Kyushu

1,240
1,931
782
373
977

Total

11,571

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

110

Food,Beverages

Finance169

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

98

Drugs,Sundries

63

Furniture

21

Construction

1,798

Real Estate

466
Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

337

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

104

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

100

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

224

Special Merchandise

225

92

Various Merchandise

55

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

Manufacturing（2,893）Wholesale（2,614）Retail（733）

112Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

Publishing,Printing

175

Chemical

391

Transportation,Warehousing

507

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

522

Restaurants

89

General Machinery

478

Telecommunications

Electrical Machinery

312

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

109

Leasing,Rentals

70

Lodging, Hotels

Others79

Recreation

Food,Beverages

327

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

162

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
Chemical

15

OthersPrecision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

Recycled Resources

Service（2,241）

7
18
114
91
120
17

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

209

314

Advertising

114

95

Information

598

247

Labor Dispatching

92

33

Special Services

321
145

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

272

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment840

Education

Others324

Others51
255
40

OthersTotal

3.Size44

Large Firms

1,784

15.4%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,787

84.6%

micro Firms

3,766

32.5%

Total

11,571100.0%©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,571

TDB Trends Research August 2023

4

2.Research Items

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted August 18– 31 2023

Industry

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 27,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Manufacturing andOther Industries*
W holesale Trade
Retail Trade
Service**

Large Firm s

Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s(Micro Firm s included)

Capital: More than 300 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 m illion yen
andNo. of Em ployee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 m illion yenor
No. of Em ployee: Below 100

Micro Firm s

No. of Em ployee: Below 20
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5
No. of Em ployee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the top 3% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong sm all to m idium -sizedcorporations excluding m icro firm s, which are defined in Sm all and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Sm all to Medium -Sized Firm s refer to com panies that rank in the bottom 50% in term s of sales volum e according to the type of business, am ong
those not categorized as sm all to m idium -sized corporations in Sm all to Medium -Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
Selection category Extremely good

good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Economic DI＝

Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category)∑≡

Number of valid responses N
6i≡0i × Ni

N

×

1
6

×

1
6

× 100

× 100

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research August 2023

5