Japanese ODA

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 4, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the Project(1)Country: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh(2)Project: Chattogram - Cox’s Bazar Highway Improvement Project (I)(3)Project Site / Target Area: Chattogram District, Chattogram Division (9.16 million)
and Cox's Bazar Division (2.82 million) (Census, 2022)(4)Loan Agreement: March 29, 2023
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector and the Priority of the Project inBangladesh
In the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, the demand for transportation has
increased in line with the GDP growth of over 6% per year over the last ten years. The
road sector, which accounts for 87% of passenger traffic and 77% of freight traffic in
all modes of transport, plays an important role in the economic growth of the country.
National Highway 1 (N1), which runs from Dhaka to Cox’s Bazar via Chattogram, hasbeen positioned in Bangladesh’s Road Master Plan (2009) as the country’s mostimportant arterial road linking the country’s major cities. As the primary transport routeto Matarbari Port, the construction of which is currently being supported by the ODA
Loan “Matarbari Port Development Project” (E/S Loan Agreement approved in FY
2018, Phase 1 Loan Agreement approved in FY 2019), N1 is expected to become akey route for freight traffic, connecting the port to Dhaka and Chattogram, thecountry’s commercial and industrial centers. Between Chattogram and Cox's Bazar in
N1, four bridges are being replaced under the ODA loan "Cross Border Road Network
Improvement Project" (approved in FY2016) to improve the transportation andlogistics network between major urban segments.
However, currently, the section of N1 south of Chattogram is a single-lane road withinsufficient width. Especially in the urban sections, general city traffic (rickshaws,
tricycle, motorcycles, passenger cars, buses, trucks, etc.) and intercity traffic andlogistics are not separated, which causes chronic traffic congestion nearby city center
areas and traffic safety problems. After completion of Matarbari Port, N1 is expected
to experience a significant increase in traffic volume, including large container vehicles.
According to the Preparatory Survey on Matarbari Port Development Project (2017),
the necessary travel time from Matarbari Port to Chattogram (approx. 130 km) is
estimated to increase from 123 minutes in 2017 to 438 minutes in 2035.
The development of Matarbari Port is positioned as the highest priority project toimprove the international competitiveness of the country's economy and support
domestic demand in Vision 2041, which prescribes the country’s long-term
development agenda. In addition, the port development is also positioned as a projectthat will contribute to the realization of the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIGB) Initiative, set forth by the Governments of Japan and Bangladesh. Therefore, therehabilitation and widening of the N1, the main arterial road for transportation between
Matarbari Port, Dhaka and Chattogram, is a priority in the Government's of
Bangladesh's various policies such as 8th Five Year Plan (FY2020/21-2024/25) andRoad Master Plan (2009).
With the opening of Matarbari Port, the Chattogram - Cox’s Bazar Highway
Improvement Project (hereinafter referred to as “the Project”) will contribute to thesmooth and safe transport of passengers and freight through the construction of
flyovers and bypass roads in major congested sections between Chattogram andCox’s Bazar, and is positioned as a high priority project.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Port/Harbor Sector
The JICA Country Analysis Paper for Bangladesh (March 2019) identifies transport
as a priority issue and analyze the necessity to improve the national transportation
network in order to achieve efficient movement of people and goods, balanced
development of the country, and further economic growth. In particular, in order torealize the BIG-B concept, the report states that it will consider the necessary support
to improve the efficiency of cargo transportation from the Moheskhali region to themajor consumption centers (Dhaka and Chattogram) and to improve accessibility from
Cox's Bazar. In addition, the Project is consistent with this analysis and policy as wellas contribute to one of goals, "Building a Global Network", set in the JICA Global
Agenda in the field of transportation (June 2022).
Japan’s Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (February 2018) has also set
forth the priority area of “accelerating inclusive economic growth towards becoming a
middle-income country,” with initiatives for developing high-quality transport
infrastructure in accordance with international standards and promoting the efficient
movement of people and goods to contribute to the improvement of regional
connectivity. The Project is thus consistent with this analysis and policy.
Additionally, by promoting the use of Matarbari Port, the Project will also contribute to
the “pursuit of economic prosperity,” as described in the Free and Open Indo-PacificStrategy, from the aspect of enhancing efficiency and connectivity of the transport
network with neighboring countries.
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has indicated a policy of strategically supporting
the development of economic corridors to promote intra-regional trade between
Bangladesh and its neighboring countries, and is also providing assistance for thedevelopment of the railway network between Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar in the
SASEC Chittagong-Cox’s Bazar Railway Project Phase 1. The World Bank is also
implementing a project to improve access in rural areas by rehabilitating county roads
and village roads as well as rehabilitating and replacing bridges on those roads. China

is supporting the construction of the Karnaphuli River Tunnel at the estuary of the
Karnaphuli River, which flows around the city of Chattogram, connecting the bothbanks with a tunnel.
３．Project Description(1) Project Description①Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to achieve smooth cargo transportation between
Matarbari Port and Chattogram by improving roads at major congested section along
the National Highway No.1, thereby contributing to improvement of logistics in
Bangladesh and to the economic growth of the surrounding area.
②Project Component(s)1) Road improvements (construction of flyovers in one section and bypass roads infour sections) (23km)
2) Consulting services (F/S review, detailed design, tender assistance, construction
supervision, support of social and environment consideration, implementation of
traffic safety measures, etc.)
The consulting services for the Project, this ODA loan covers the construction
phase of the above 1) and 2). The F/S review, detailed design (including detailed
design for environmental and social considerations and traffic safety measures),and bidding assistance in (2) are implemented under the Project's E/S loan
(approved in FY2020).
③Project Beneficiaries (Target Group)
1) Direct beneficiary: Logistics companies using the improved roads and local
residents benefiting from reduced traffic congestion2) Indirect Beneficiary: Bangladeshi citizens who are the consumers of goods andservices delivered using the improved roads (165 million (Census, 2022))(2) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
207,455 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan amount for the frist tranche: 55,729 million
Yen)(3) Schedule
August 2020 – November 2029（112 months in total）
The Project will complete upon commencement of service at the facilities (November2028).
(4) Project Implementation Structure1)Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2)Guarantor: N/A
3)Executing Agency: Roads and Highways Department, Ministry of Road Transportand Bridges (RHD)
4)Operation and Maintenance System: RHD

(5) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: The Project intends to facilitate traffic on N1, a major route fortransporting freight to and from Matarbari Port, which is currently being constructedunder “Matarbari Port Development Project”. In addition, four bridges on N1 arecurrently being constructed under “Cross-Border Road Network Improvement Project”,
an ODA Loan project aiming to improve regional connectivity, which is expected toaccommodate traffic originating and terminating in the urban area, on the other hand,the bypass road to be constructed in the Project will bypass the urban area and be
used for logistics transportation by large freight vehicles, thus these two project arecomplementing each other. Moreover, through the dispatch of technical cooperation"Advisor for Road and Bridge Maintenance" (FY2020-FY2023), technical support isprovided to the executing agency of the Project to strengthen its system and improve
its technical capabilities for road and bridge maintenance and management.
2) Other Donors’ Activity: N/A(6) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The project is likely to have significant adverse
impact due to its characteristic under the JICA guidelines for environmental andsocial considerations (published in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report for
the Project was approved by the Department of Environment, Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests of Bangladesh in November 2022.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: During the construction work, measures for air quality,
water quality, and noise and vibration, etc. will be taken in order to satisfy theemission standards and environmental standards in Bangladesh such as water
sprinkling, maintenance of heavy construction equipment, leachate treatment
and reuse of residual soil, restrictions on nighttime construction, use of low
noise/vibration equipment, etc. During operation, the introduction of noisebarriers around facilities and residences that are subject to roadside noise will
be examined.
⑤ Natural Environment: Part of the construction site for the Project passes
adjacent to the Fasiakhali Wildlife Sanctuary and Kalala Protected Forest, andapproximately 4 km away from the Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary. In these nature
reserves and forests, Asian elephants and other rare species are inhabited.
However, the construction site for the Project is outside the protected areas,and significant negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions are
not expected by complying with the protection plan set by the Forestry Bureau
and minimizing undesirable impacts on the natural environment. Furthermore,
56,737 trees will be cut down by the Project, and compensatory planting isplanned in accordance with the afforestation plan.

⑥ Social Environment: The project involves the land acquisition for approximately
80 ha, which will result in the resettlement of 9,119 people (2,035 households)
and 5,340 people (1,071 households). Land acquisition will be carried out inaccordance with the resettlement plan prepared based on domestic proceduresin Bangladesh and JICA guidelines for environmental and social considerations.
During the consultation with local stakeholders, the residents, including
informal residents, demanded sufficient compensation and prior disclosure of
information, etc., and such requests on compensation and resettlement
procedures are reflected in the resettlement plan in an appropriate manner. No
specific objections to the project have been raised by the affected residents.
⑦ Other / Monitoring : During construction, air quality, water quality, noise/vibration,
waste, tree cutting, etc. will be monitored by the contractor under thesupervision of the executing agency. During operation, air quality, water quality,
noise, tree planting, etc. will be monitored by the executing agency. Landacquisition, resettlement, and livelihood restoration support will be monitored
by NGOs, etc. commissioned by the executing agency under the responsibilityof the executing agency.
(7) Cross-Sectoral Issues
Infectious Disease Measure: Since this is a large-scale infrastructuredevelopment project in an area where the spread of HIV infection is concerned
and workers will be concentrated at one construction site for a long period of time,education on preventing HIV infection will be provided to related workers,
including drivers, who enter and leave the construction site. With regard to
COVID-19, infection preventing measures will be implemented by paying attention
to the local infection situation and referring to the local laws/regulations and WHO
guidance on measures against COVID-19(8) Gender Category: [N/A] GI (Gender Mainstreaming Needs Assessment andAnalysis Project)
Reason for Categorization: Although gender mainstreaming needs were
investigated in the preparatory survey, specific indicators were not established.
Wages will be set at the same level for men and women for construction work of
the Project, and a quota for female employment will be set. Women will also be
preferentially hired for the project implementation unit, to be established within
the Executing Agency.
(9) Other Important Issues
The possibility of utilizing advanced technology in the project will be examinedthrough detailed design.
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator
Annual average daily traffic
volume *(vehicles/day)
Necessary average travel
time*(hours)
Number of passengers*(1,000 persons/year)
Freight volume* (1,000
tons/year)*Value at Dohazari point

13,800Target (2030)【Expected value 2 years
after project completion】
48,700142

89

88,000232,000

10,70035,455Baseline(Actual Value in 2019)(2) Qualitative Effects
To promote economic growth in the target region, to promote logistics and investment
in Bangladesh(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) for
the Project is 20.3%.The financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is not calculated since
it is not assumed that fees will be collected from users.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs and maintenance/operation costs (excluding tax)
Benefit: Reduction in vehicle operation cost and travel time cost
Project Life: 35 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Factors: N/A
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
It was learned from the ex-post evaluation of “Casablanca South Ring Road
Construction Project” (evaluation year: 2007) that when constructing a bypass road,from the perspective of regional division, it is important to prepare an action plan onsocial considerations based on design drawings that reflect the latest on-site
information. Information should be disclosed to local residents and a sufficient amountof discussion should be held beforehand. Based on the results of those discussions,the necessary number of crossing structures should be incorporated into the plan anddesign. In light of this, an explanation of the Project will be provided and discussions
held with local residents, so that the detailed design can be formulated to reflect theviews of the local community in the planning and design of the structures.
In addition, in the ex-post evaluation of the "Second Magsaysay Bridge and Butuan
City Bypass Road Construction Project" (evaluation year: 2012), it was pointed outthat problems originated from in design and construction management stages haveoccurred such as ground subsidence due to soft ground at the bridge approach andthe occurrence of potholes on the bridge. The lesson learned is that proper designand construction management is important. In the Project, based on a result of thegeological investigation by the preparatory survey, since the project site contains soft
ground layers, soft ground countermeasure works are planned in consideration of the
behavior during the construction and maintenance phases. During the construction of
the embankment, the contractor will monitor the actual behavior of the ground, and thedesign and construction method will be reviewed if necessary with consultation
between the contractor and the consultant. The executing agency is also tocommunicate with JICA through periodic progress reports.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development issues and development policies ofBangladesh, as well as the assistance policies and analyses of the Government ofJapan and JICA. The Project will help promote passenger travel and physicaldistribution, including the movement of freight to and from Matarbari Port, as well as
help the social and economic development of the areas along the route, thereby
contributing to the achievement of SDGs 3 (Health and Wellness), 8 (Economic
Growth) and 9 (Industries, Innovation and Infrastructure). Therefore, the necessity for
JICA to support Project is substantial.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in sections 4.
(2) Further Evaluation Schedule
Two years after the project completion.