Development Bank of Japan
Research Report
No. 52

Intelligent Transport System (ITS):
Current State and Future Prospects

May 2005

Economic and Industrial Research Department
Development Bank of Japan

This report was originally published in Japanese as Chosa No. 79
in March 2005.

Contents
Summary ........................................................................................................................................

iii

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................

1

I

Significance and Outline of ITS............................................................................................
1. Impact of ITS on Japan’s Economy and Society .............................................................
2. Outline of ITS ..................................................................................................................

3
3
6

II

VICS and ETC: From the Adoption Stage to the Growth Stage ......................................
1. VICS ................................................................................................................................
2. ETC..................................................................................................................................

8
8
10

III Advances in Vehicle Safety through ITS .............................................................................
1. Outline of Vehicle Safety: From Passive Safety to Active Safety....................................
2. ASV .................................................................................................................................
3. Demonstration Stages of AHS and DSSS ........................................................................

16
16
18
23

IV Advanced Information Services and Communication Networks ......................................
1. Telematics by Automakers ...............................................................................................
2. Information Service Businesses other than Telematics....................................................
3. More Efficient Distribution System Making Use of ITS .................................................
4. Communication Networks for ITS Implementation ........................................................

26
26
29
31
31

V

Future Prospects ....................................................................................................................
1. Multiple Effects of ITS ....................................................................................................
2. ITS and Regional Development.......................................................................................
3. Conclusions......................................................................................................................

34
34
34
35

References ......................................................................................................................................

38

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52iIntelligent Transport System (ITS):
Current State and Future Prospects
Summary
1.

Outline of ITS

To sustain Japan’s transport system, bolder initiatives on road-vehicle safety and environmental
issues are required. The rising number of traffic
accidents as well as elderly drivers underscores
the need for safer cars, while severe traffic congestion is causing economic losses and environmental damage. ITS is expected to help mitigate
these problems.
Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) are intended to make vehicles safer, improve publicconvenience, and reduce environmental costs byimproving vehicles using electronics and communication technologies and by networking themwith the road infrastructure. Thus, ITS has
enormous implications for Japan’s economy andsociety, including the creation of a ubiquitous
society, the generation of new industries, andenhancement of the auto industry’s competitiveness.
In 1996, Japanese government agencies
jointly established the “Comprehensive Plan forIntelligent Transport Systems (ITS)”. This has
led to new services such as VICS, which provides real-time road traffic information, and ETC,
which permits non-stop collection of road tolls.
Many services of ITS are expected to come into
wide use, such as safe driving assistance, moreconvenient public transportation, provision of
in-vehicle services and information, vehicle androad management, and more efficient distribution
systems.
2.

Widespread Use of VICS and ETC

Around 10 million VICS units have been soldand ETC devices have been installed in about 5
million vehicles, accounting for about 30% of
expressway traffic, resulting in less congestion insome areas. Both of these systems have succeeded by actively building infrastructure under

government leadership, and by making users
aware of the benefits. Moreover, a variety of
public subsidy programs were used to stimulate
initial demand for ETC. As volumes increased,
costs came down and triggered further demand.
The government and public corporations areworking hard to achieve installation of ETC in
70% of all expressway traffic by early 2006. To
ensure full use of ETC infrastructure and boost
usage, it is necessary to promote multiuse ETC,
which means ETC employing the DSRC communication method, for applications other thantoll collection. Next-generation ETC units capable of multiple applications are expected to bereleased from 2006, and are expected to lead tonew services and business models.
3.

Initiatives for Improved Vehicle Safety

Since around 2000, the development and marketing of safety equipment has increasingly focused on active safety, which means measuresdesigned to prevent accidents before they occur.
Statistics show that driver errors, such as slow
reactions or errors of judgment and responses,
account for 75% of all traffic accidents. Cars are
therefore expected to be more intelligent to assist
the awareness, decisions, and actions of drivers,
and such Advanced Safety Vehicles (ASV)
equipped with intelligent assistance functions
can cut the number of traffic accidents, fatalities,
and injuries.
The keys to spreading ASV are price anduser acceptance. For the former, it is worth considering a subsidy policy to stimulate initial demand as was done with ETC, to complement
cost-reduction efforts by manufacturers. Gaining
user acceptance requires both making automobiles easier to use and building awareness of
ASV among users.
ASV expansion is likely to speed up the incorporation of electronics in automobiles andprompt more alliances and competition for technical leadership among carmakers, automotive

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52iii

parts manufacturers, and electronic parts manufacturers.
4.

Information Service Provision and Communication Infrastructure Establishment

New trends are emerging in services, such asproviding in-vehicle information by using existing communication technologies and infrastructure. For example, telematics allows car manufacturers to add value to their products and tostrengthen their customer-relations management(CRM), which is different from the conventional
automotive business. It therefore requires business models based on future development communication technologies and business structures,that simultaneously provide customer benefits
and deliver profit by controlling the value chainsof communications, hardware, and content.
To achieve diverse ITS functions, communications technology and infrastructure that canconvey various information among cars, systems,
and people are required. Several communication
media are already in use for extravehicularcommunication. But to connect these to theInternet and create a seamless information environment, it is necessary not only to improve theperformance of each communication media andbuild more infrastructure, but also to establish
common platforms and standards for hardware

iv

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52(car-mounted equipment) and software. In thesestandardization processes, it is important to encourage the creativity and motivation of private
corporations to develop technology and create
early markets.
5.

Future Outlook

ITS offers a sustainable transportation system fora ubiquitous society, and is expected to bringnew technologies and business structures to theautomotive and related industries as well as tofoster new industries. ITS is also expected to assist regional economic development as some regions begin leveraging their local competencies
through ITS.
Encompassing roads, transport, vehicles,
and communications, ITS involves both localities
and citizens along with many industries andgovernment agencies. A liaison committee has
been set up among related government agencies,and cooperation between government, industry,
and academia is progressing. However, in viewof the significance of ITS, time to completion,and size of initial investment, more unified initiatives and sharing of responsibilities among the
major players are required.
[Masao Masuda (email: mamasud@dbj.go.jp)]

Introduction
Nagoya hosted the ITS World Congress in October 2004. This was the second time the ITSWorld Congress met in Japan; the first was in1995 in Yokohama. In those ten years, there has
been rapid technical progress and the accumulation of expert knowledge, and ITS has started toaffect the daily lives of the general public invarious areas. The organizers of the 2004 ITSWorld Congress in Nagoya made it open to thegeneral public and focused on demonstrations toshift the driving force of ITS from experts to users. ITS is moving away from the conceptual
stage and demonstrating technical potential, toward solving practical real-world issues and disseminating ITS into the fabric of life.
In this context, the DBJ conducted a survey
on corporate capital spending behavior and innovation efforts for the 3,638 firms covered by
the Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005 (conducted in Novem-

ber 2004), in order to understand corporations’attitude toward capital spending and to predict
the trend in the coming years.
This paper summarizes the state of ITS today and the issues it is facing. It is frequently
remarked that if the basic functions of a car are“driving,” “turning,” and “stopping,” then ITS
provides a new “linking” function. However, ITS
must also offer linkages between technology andproblems to be resolved, and linkages between
manufacturers and users.
It is interesting to note that although the “T”
in ITS is “transport,” suggesting wide-ranging
transportation modalities, ITS has been narrowlyinterpreted in Japan to mean road traffic systems,
as the focus of ITS is on road transportation.
Consequently, although it is important to achieve
the best mix of transportation modalities throughmodal shifting and other measures, this paper
deals primarily with road vehicles and automotive transportation systems.

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

1

I

Significance and Outline of ITS
1.

Impact of ITS on Japan’s Economy andSociety

It is difficult to imagine life without automobiles;
economic activities would grind to a halt withoutcars and trucks. Because of the transportation
system’s heavy reliance on cars and trucks, evenas we seek the best mix of transportation modalities through modal shifting and other measures,
we must develop automotive transportation in asustainable form. Government agencies and industry players have been individually combating
the massive economic losses caused by atmospheric pollution from vehicle exhaust emissions
and escalating traffic fatalities; for automotivetransportation systems in the 21st century to besustainable, safety and environmental problems
must be resolved.
For example, statistics show that fatalities

due to traffic accidents are declining, from apeak in 1970 of 16,765 deaths, and 2004 marked
the third consecutive record-low number of traffic deaths at 7,358. Yet the number of traffic accidents is actually increasing, and the number oftraffic-related injuries closely parallels these figures (Figure 1-1). Meanwhile, estimates showthat nearly one in five licensed drivers (23%)
will be elderly1 by 2020 (Figure 1-2), and observers worry 2 that more elderly drivers willlead to a higher accident rate and unchecked increase in traffic accidents and injuries unlesspreventive measures are taken. Car manufacturers are therefore being urged to build safer cars
to cope with the issues of mounting traffic accidents and aging drivers.
The social and economic losses attributable
to traffic congestion have long been clear. Road
traffic censuses3 since 1994 show that overall
rush-hour travel speeds remain steady or are rising slightly. However, the weekday traffic problems in the Tokyo Metropolitan area andPeople (10,000s)

Accidents (10,000s)
100

2.0
Number of traffic accidents(right axis)

1.5

80
60

1.0

40
Number of traffic fatalities

0.5

20
0

0.0

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 Year

Source:Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from “Traffic Statistics
2003” and other materials issued by the National Police Agency.

Figure 1-1. Transitions in Traffic Accidents

1This paper considers those aged 65 or older to be elderly
people.
2
Data indicates that the average braking reaction time ofdrivers aged 60 or older is 1.35 times that of drivers under
60 (0.5 seconds versus 0.37 seconds) (from “People andCars (1988),” Japan Traffic Safety Association).
3
These surveys (officially called the “Road Traffic Census”) are conducted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport in conjunction with local governments andpublic highway corporations to accurately ascertain the true
state of Japan’s roads and road traffic. Recent censuses havebeen conducted in 1994, 1997, and 1999.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

3People (millions)10
T he percentage ofdrivers 65 and older
will rise from 11
percent to 23 percent.

8
6
4

2003
2003年

2

2020 (projected)
2020年（予測）

Source:

74
75〜

69

70〜

64

65〜

59

60〜

54

55〜

49

50〜

44

40〜

45〜

39

34

35〜

29

Note:

30〜

24

25〜

20〜

15〜

19

0
Age

The projection for 2020 was arrived at based on transitions over the past
15 years in licensed-driver rates and estimates from the National Instituteof Population and Social Security Research.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from annual traffic statistics
reports and estimates from the National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research.

Figure 1-2. Licensed Drivers (current figures and future estimates)

35.1

Countrywide
Tokyo Metropolitan Area
Tokyo’ s 23 Wards
17.5

FY199926.1
35.2

FY1997

26.1
18.5
34.1

FY1994

25.3
23.7
0

Note:
Source:

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40
(km/h)

Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Simple average of figures for Saitama
Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Metropolitan Tokyo, and Kanagawa Prefecture.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the 1999 “Road Traffic
Census” and other sources.

Figure 1-3. Comparison of Average Rush-Hour Traffic Speeds (weekdays)

throughout Tokyo’s 23 wards are worsening(Figure 1-3). The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport made an estimate using roadtraffic censuses and found that 3.8 billion people-hours were lost in 2002 due to traffic congestion, equivalent to 12 trillion yen.
Besides economic costs, congestion also has
adverse effects on the environment. Cars andtrucks cause some 90% of CO2 emissions in thetransport sector, which have already doubled
4

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

from 1990 levels. In addition, the Ministry ofTransport (now the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) estimated in 1995 that of the
89 million kiloliters of fuel consumed by cars
and trucks that year, 11% was wasted in traffic
jams. On the other hand, as Figure 1-4 illustrates,
an increase in average travel speed from 20 kph
to 30 kph reduces CO2 emissions by 20%. Thus,
reducing traffic congestion is crucial for reducing
CO2 emissions in the transport sector.

120

107
CO2 emissions per vehicle
一台当たりCO2排(in g-C/km)

100
80

出量
(g-C/Km)

71
57

60

48

43

41

40
20
0
10

20

30

40

50

60
Travel Speed (km/h)

Source:Ministry of the Environment, “2000 White Paper on the Environment.”

Figure 1-4. Association Between Vehicular Travel Speed and CO2 Emissions

Form ation of a
Sustainable Car Society

Realization of a
Ubiquitous Society

New Industry
Creation

ITS

Enhanced Auto Industry
Com petitiveness

Figure 1-5. Significance of ITS
Many consider that Intelligent Transport
Systems (ITS) can solve two major issues, safety
and the environment, to make the road-trafficsystem sustainable in the 21st century. Leveraging the latest electronics and communications
technology, ITS will create sophisticated newfunctions for cars as well as improve the safety
and convenience of cars and lessen their environmental impact by connecting vehicles withroad infrastructure through communication networks. ITS will also boost Japan’s economy andindustry by realizing a ubiquitous society, creating new industries, and enhancing the competitiveness of the automotive, electronic, and communication industries (Figure 1-5).
The 1990s witnessed progress in the officethrough computers and the Internet, which areclosely related to the ubiquitous society, andamong people through cellphones and PDAs.

Similarly, the 2000s are likely to see the digitization of goods, with IC tags and electronic money.
The rapid growth in the application of IT to cars
will be driven by ITS over the same 10-year spanin the early 21st century as goods and money. As
these movements converge, a seamless, ubiquitous information society will emerge.
The contribution of ITS to the creation of
new industries has been cited in the devices andservices field related to the environment and energy, which is one of seven strategic fields4 outlined in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s “New Industry Promotion Strategy” report (May 2004). Elsewhere, priority cross-cutting
4

The “New Industry Promotion Strategy” outlines sevenstrategic fields: fuel cells, digital consumer electronics,
robots, (Internet) content, health and welfare related devices
and services, environment and energy related devices andservices, and business-support services.

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

5strategies have pointed out the importance of ITS
as a common IT business platform.
Thus, ITS will have major benefits not only
for specific sectors and industries, but also forthe economy and society as a whole.
2.

Outline of ITS

The Japanese government defined a policy topromote ITS as part of its “Basic Guidelines on
the Promotion of an Advanced Information andTelecommunications Society” in February 1995.
In August of the same year, five government
agencies (represented today by the National Police Agency, the Ministry of Internal Affairs andCommunications, the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry, and the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure and Transport) selected nine areasin which to construct ITS under the “Basic Government Guidelines of Advanced Information
and Communications in the Fields of Roads,
Traffic and Vehicles.”5 The “Comprehensive
Plan for Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) in
Japan” was formulated in 1996 and new services
such as VICS which provides road-traffic information, and ETC which is a nonstop road-tollcollection system, have been emerging since then.
Going forward, ITS will be expanded in various
areas including assisting safe driving, improving
the efficiency of public transportation, providing
information and services to vehicles, managing
vehicles and roads, and raising the efficiency of
distribution.
Figure 1-6 shows the diverse nature of ITS;
the ITS categories have no well-defined boundaries, and ITS has the potential to spread further in

Advanced navigation— Better navigation with VICS (since April 1996)

S afety andS ecurity
Accident
prevention

Assisance for safe driving— ASV (Advanced Safety Vehicles, since 1991)— AHS (Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System) and DSSS
(Driving Safety Support System)

Efficiency

Improved
convenience

Reduced traffic congestion
Less environm ental im pact
More efficient
adm inistration

Improved convenience of public transport— Bus-location systems— PTPS (Public Transportation Priority Systems)

Car control

Directions andwarnings

Information
provision

Telematics (provision of information and services to vehicles)— Entertainment, communications, vehicle management, etc.

Services and functions provided by IT S
Toll payments

M ore efficient management of road-related business— M ore efficient road management, Smart plates— M ore efficient distribution system (joint delivery systems, etc.)

Source:ComfortCar informationtransmission

Main ITS Areas

ETC (Electric Toll-Collection System)— Nonstop tollgates (since M arch 2001)— M ultiple applications of DSRC communications

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the “Comprehensive Plan for Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) in Japan” and other materials.

Figure 1-6. Main ITS Areas and Impact of ITS Growth on the Car-Oriented Society
5

The nine development areas stated were: advances innavigation systems, electronic toll collection systems, assistance for safe driving, optimization of traffic management,
increasing efficiency in road management, support for public transport, increasing efficiency in commercial vehicle
operations, support for pedestrians, and support for emergency vehicle operations. See page 85 of the “ITS Handbook 2004–2005” for details. (The nine areas were originally published in the “Comprehensive Plan for Intelligent
Transport Systems (ITS) in Japan.”)6

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

line with emerging demands and technicalbreakthroughs. For example, the first studies ofSmart plates6 did not begin until 2000, several
years after the Comprehensive ITS Plan was released. Although many issues remain before
Smart plates can be used in practice, digitizing
the management of vehicle information, frompurchase to disposal, is expected to greatly
streamline administrative services. With regard
to efficiency of the distribution system, truck
transport using digital tachographs and GPS7 andjoint delivery systems employing ITS are being
implemented. By combining these systems with
IC tags in the future, distribution efficiency will
be increased further.
With regard to the process of diffusion of
ITS products and services, whereas conventional
products pass steadily through the lifecycle ofadoption, growth, maturity, and decline,
high-tech products do not move so steadily as
their scope widens from one consumer segmentto the next (that is, moving up one stage in the
product lifecycle). The greatest barrier between
two segments is called the chasm between the
adoption and growth stages. This chasm makes it

difficult for products to enter the mass market.
The Chasm Model is a suitable framework forconsidering penetration patterns of goods andservices such as ITS, where consumer acceptance is as important to growth as technical integrity and cost.
Applying this model to the main ITS areasand services, only VICS and car navigation havebreached the chasm and entered the growth stage.
ETC looks increasingly likely to make the leap
from the adoption stage to the growth stage. Almost all other fields and services, such as Advanced Safety Vehicles (ASV, see Chapter III)and telematics (see Chapter IV), are still in theearly adoption or pre-adoption (testing anddemonstration level) stages. Thus, whether thesefields and services will progress steadily along
the growth curve depends on the initiatives ofrelated players and consumers’ acceptance of
those initiatives. Furthermore, ITS is intrinsicallydependent on the underlying infrastructure, so
there are significant cost hurdles to expanding
penetration. As a result, both government policies and industry efforts need to be finely tuned
to each stage of ITS proliferation.

6

A smart plate is a license plate with an attached IC tag that
stores the license plate information and various information
about the car. Smart plates are currently in the verification
testing stage.
7
GPS: Global Positioning System. GPS is a positioning
system making use of US Department of Defense satellites
to provide accurate position and time information 24 hours a
day anywhere on the surface of the earth.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

7II VICS and ETC: From the
Adoption Stage to the Growth Stage
1.

VICS

1.1. What is VICS?
VICS stands for Vehicle Information and Communication System, the aims of which are to improve road-traffic safety and ease traffic flows.
By providing drivers with real-time traffic information, the system both reassures drivers
psychologically about where they are going andhelps them to select optimal routes. This improves safety on the roads, eases traffic jams, andthus shortens commuting times through better
traffic-flow distribution.
VICS works as follows. The VICS Center(Road Traffic Information and Communication
System Center) first obtains information on traffic conditions and road closures in real time via

the Japan Road Traffic Information Center fromlocal police departments and traffic control centers run by highway administrators. (The VICS
Center acquires some information, such as parking lot information, directly.) The VICS Center
processes and edits the information it collects
and then passes it on to drivers through three
media:8 radio beacons, optical beacons, andFM-multiplex broadcasts (Figure 2-1, 2-29).
1.2. Trends in VICS Services and Users
VICS information services got underway in April
1996. Originally, the plan was to cover the seven
prefectures comprising Japan’s three largest
metropolitan areas in the first seven years andthen extend the services across the country overthe next 10 years. The countrywide coverageplan was revised twice, however, and expansionof VICS services across the country was completed in just seven years (by 2003), less than

Local Police Departments, Highway Administrators

Japan Road Traffic Information Center

VICS Center

Source:(Expressways)(M ajor Arteries)(Areas Receiving NHK FM
Broadcasts)

Radio Beacons

Optical Beacons

FM-Multiplex Broadcasts

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Road Traffic Information and Communication System Center, “The VICS Challenge,” and other materials.

Figure 2-1. How VICS Works
8

Table 2-1 gives details on each media. (More details canbe found on the Road Traffic Information and Communication System Center website (http://www.vics.or.jp/).
9
VICS information can be displayed on car-mounted units
in three ways: level 1 (character display), level 2 (simple-diagram display), and level 3 (full map display). See theRoad Traffic Information and Communication System Center website (http://www.vics.or.jp/) for more information.
8

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

Source:

Road Traffic Information and Communication System Center website(http://www.vics.or.jp/).

Figure 2-2. VICS Display (at level 3)
Units (10,000s)
1,800

100%
VICS Units
Car Navigation Systems

1,600
1,400

80%

Right Axis

Percentage with VICS Capability (flow)

1,200

60%

1,000
800

40%

600
400

20%

200
04Ⅰ

Ⅲ

03Ⅰ

Ⅲ

02Ⅰ

Ⅲ

01Ⅰ

Ⅲ

00Ⅰ

Ⅲ

99Ⅰ

Ⅲ

98Ⅰ

Ⅲ

97Ⅰ

Ⅲ

0%
96Ⅰ

0

(CY/Quarter)

Note:
Source:The percentage of navigation systems with VICS capability is the average of the movement during the previous three quarters.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from data released by the Road Traffic Information and Communication System Center and the Japan Electronics and Information
Technology Association.

Figure 2-3. VICS Unit Shipments in Japan
half the original estimated time. As a result,shipments of VICS units in Japan have grownsteadily in line with the installation of infrastructure and the popularity of car navigation
systems. By July 2004, the cumulative number of
onboard VICS units shipped exceeded 10 million
and more than 80% of new car navigation units
are VICS capable (Figure 2-3).
1.3. VICS Achievements
VICS has performed well, allowing drivers to
use traffic-condition information, and the pace ofdiffusion and number of installed units have progressed favorably. One factor behind this success

was the rapid buildup of infrastructure under
government supervision, but more importantly
VICS is easy for users to understand and systemcosts are invisible to users. Users actually pay a
VICS viewing surcharge of 315 yen (per unit)
when they purchase a VICS-enabled car navigation system, but this is hidden in the cost of theunit.
Although the success of VICS in alleviating
traffic congestion and improving safety is difficult to quantify from official statistics, feedback
from drivers has been positive.10 Of course,
10

Before starting VICS services, the VICS Center Prepara-

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

9VICS still faces a number of issues (see the next
section); there are aspects where the full potential of VICS is not being utilized, such as thepoor growth of three-media VICS (few users attach a beacon reception antenna to receive information from all three media).
1.4. Future Issues
More than 10 million in-vehicle VICS units havebeen shipped and traffic-condition informationfrom VICS is widely used. The next step is todevelop the information provision process. Currently, it takes about 10 minutes after getting in a
car for VICS data to download before it can beused. Furthermore, users are not happy with thecoverage of VICS, which includes only the areasurrounding the unit’s current position, which onlong trips makes finding the best route for theentire trip impossible. But such problems can beaddressed with services provided by the telematics businesses that car makers are just starting,and VICS is not obliged to resolve all these
problems itself taking into account its public nature. The one outstanding issue for VICS is thepromotion of three-media VICS.
At present, most VICS users receive information from FM-multiplex broadcasts; few users
receive information from all three media. The
main reason is that users must directly absorb thecosts of using three-media VICS by purchasing aseparate beacon reception antenna. Another factor is lack of awareness among users that they
can receive the full range of VICS functions
from beacons. Specifically, having a beacon reception antenna allows auto re-routing, traffic-jam avoidance, traffic-condition updates, andacquisition of more detailed information by accessing traffic-condition information deliveredtion Department made a rough cost-benefit projection for
the first 20 years of service. The analysis showed the direct
costs of setting up and running the VICS Center to be 33
billion yen, the indirect costs of installing and maintaining
the beacons to be 370 billion yen (300 billion for installation and 70 billion for maintenance and operations), and thepurchase costs of car units to be 800 billion yen, giving a
total of 1.203 trillion yen. On the benefits side, the analysis
estimated the savings in time to be worth 7.3 trillion yen
and the fuel savings to be 450 billion yen, giving a total of
7.75 trillion yen. However, many of the assumptions used
for the analysis have changed greatly since the estimates
were made, so it is difficult to verify if the actual
cost-benefits have exceeded or missed this projection.
10

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

by beacons.
This problem must be resolved as information will need to be received from optical beacons in order to deploy the Driving Safety Support System (DSSS, see Chapter III. 3) in the
future. Hence, steps are needed to support
three-media VICS. Working from the characteristics of each consumer segment given in Chapter I, suppliers and related players in the VICS
market must convince users of the advantages ofadopting three-media VICS and strive to increase
to cost-benefit levels that satisfy consumers.
Table 2-1. The Three VICS MediaFM-Multiplex
Broadcasts
Media• Installed along • Installed along • VICS-FM
broadcast stamajor trunk
Operation
expressways
tions are setroads• Uses radio
up across the• Uses opticalsignals
country
signals(quasi-microw(near-infrared • Uses FM
ave signals)
broadcastwaves)
signals• Provides• Provides
Informa- • Provides
road-traffic
traffic infortion Retraffic inforinformation
mation on arceived
mation on exfor an entire
teries up to 30
pressways up
prefecture
kilometers
to 200 kiloaheadmeters ahead
Radio Beacons

Source:Optical Beacons

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan fromthe Road Traffic Information and Communication
System Center website (http://www.vics.or.jp/).

2.

ETC

2.1. How ETC Works
The Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) systemcollects tolls using radio signals so that vehicles
do not need to stop at tollgates. A device installed in the vehicle communicates with an antenna at the collection point on a toll road.
As outlined in Chapter I, one of the primarytargets of ITS is to eliminate traffic congestion.
ETC is expected to contribute greatly to this target by eliminating traffic backups at tollgates,
where nearly a third of expressway congestion
occurs (Figure 2-5). Other significant benefits of
ETC are the convenience of cashless toll payments and the better conditions at toll collection
points (less air pollution and noise). With these
expectations, ETC research began in 1993 andETC went into service in March 2001. It took
more than two years to reach one million ETC

installations, but since then one million installations have been added every six months: the figure reached 4 million by October 2004 and 5
million just three months later in January 2005.
(As Figure 2-6 shows, the actual installed base at
the end of January was 4.88 million excluding
re-installation). The ETC usage rate has risen
sharply in tandem with installations, reaching

29% in January 2005.11
Two factors for this surge in ETC have beensuggested: the rapid government-led rollout of
ETC installations and, like VICS, that users canclearly identify the benefits of using ETC. Quick
expansion of ETC infrastructure was clearly afactor in its popularity. ETC was initially available at 63 tollgates when launched in March

On board equipment

Roadside
antenna

IC cardTwo-way Radio
Communications

Source:ITS website (http://www.mlit.go.jp/road/ITS/j-html/) of theRoad Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

Figure 2-4. How ETC Works (conceptual diagram)

Other
8%
Tollgates
36%

Merge Sections
21%

Sag and Tunnel
Sections
35%

Note:
Source:Sag refers to a section where an expressway changes
from a downward slope to an upward slope.
“ITS Handbook 2004-2005” (originally taken from2002 data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport).

Figure 2-5. Causes of Traffic Jams on Expressways
11
A usage rate of 29% indicates that one in ten vehicles
using expressways have ETC installed. The ETC usage rateon the Metropolitan Expressway exceeded 30% in January
2005.
(See http://www.mex.go.jp/press/2004/050112/index.html.)

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

11

Setups and Units (10,000s)

600

40%
35%

ET C Setups (cumulative)
Number of Units in Use Nationwide
National Usage Rate (right axis)

500
400

30%
25%

300

20%
15%

200

10%
100

5%

Note:
Source:

1/
05

/0
4
10

7/
04

4/
04

1/
04

/0
3
10

7/
03

4/
03

1/
03

/0
2
10

7/
02

4/
02

0%

1/
02

0

Installation figures do not include re-installations.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from materials releasedby the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

Figure 2-6. ETC Adoption Rates
Average Congestion (km • h/day)
150

30%
28.1%
123.4

100

25%
20%

14.5%

15%
4.8%

50

10%

65.2

5%
33.4

0

0%
November 2002

November 2003

November 2004

Average Congestion Amount (km • h/day)ET C Usage Rate (at tollgates on all routes) (right axis)

Note:
Source:Average congestion amounts are the averages of 18 tollgates.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the “ITS Handbook 2004–2005” (original data from the Metropolitan Expressway
Public Corporation).

Figure 2-7. Congestion Reduction Accompanying ETC Growth(at 18 tollgates along routes of the Metropolitan Expressway)
2001. By the end of 2003, this figure had reached
850 and at the end of 2004 ETC had been installed at all tollgates (about 1,300) of the four
highway public corporations. At the same time,
the government instituted various subsidy
programs to stimulate initial demand for ETC
units.12 The resulting scale merit of mass produc12
In addition to the prepayment discount system started inJuly 2002, several other special discount systems and purchase assistance programs have been run. (See the “ITS

12Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

tion drove down prices (for ETC units), spurring
further demand and initiating a virtuous cycle.
As a result of these coordinated efforts, ETC
continues to progress from the adoption stage tothe growth stage.

Handbook 2004–2005” for details.)

Setups (millions)
If multiuse
progresses

15

10
If multiuse
doesn’t progress

5

00
8
.2

00
7
ec

ec

D

D

.2
ec
D

ec
D

.2

00
6

00
5

ec
D

.2

00
4
.2

00
3
ec
D

ec
D

Note:
Source:

.2

00
2

ec
D

.2

.2

00
1

0

Installation figures do not include re-installations.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from industry interviews and meetings.

Figure 2-8. Estimate of ETC Setups
2.2. Results of ETC Introduction
The introduction of ETC has already helped easetraffic congestion at tollgates. As the use of ETC
has risen, the average traffic congestion has
fallen at all tollgates on the Metropolitan Expressway; the average congestion in April 2004
dropped by almost half from two years before(Figure 2-7). Surveys13 have also shown that
ETC tollgate lanes process about 3.5 times thenumber of vehicles compared with manned tollgate lanes: ETC lanes process about 800 vehicles
per hour; manned lanes about 230 vehicles perhour. Greater ETC deployment will further reduce and eventually eliminate queues at tollgates.
As ETC progresses furthers, construction of
a diversified toll system to offset external diseconomies becomes more feasible. There has
been a glaring need for time distribution (tolessen or eliminate traffic backups) of trafficloads, through connection discounts and peakroad pricing,14 as well as physical distribution of
traffic loads through environmental road pricing.
However, the cost and difficulty of implementa13

A study by the Japan Highway Public Corporation (figures taken from the Organization for Road System Enhancement portal site(http://www.go-etc.jp/riyouhouhou/riyouhouhou.html).)
14
Road pricing is a pricing strategy to reduce traffic onsections of highway prone to traffic jams or air pollution bycollecting tolls (or charging higher tolls) from vehicles
passing through such sections. Examples include peak roadpricing, which reduces congestion at peak hours, and environmental road pricing, which lessens environmental impacts.

tion has made road pricing impractical. Yet, with
ETC-equipped cars and cashless payments, it ispossible to identify the routes used by each vehicle. Greater use of ETC makes sophisticated toll
systems not only feasible but also eminently
achievable. The Metropolitan Expressway Public
Corporation15 and the Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation16 have already introduced limited
environmental road pricing.
2.3. Future Outlook
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the four highway public corporations
redoubled efforts to promote ETC from the last
half of 2004, setting ETC usage targets of 50%
for the spring of 2005 and 70% for the spring of2006 (Table 2-2). This program will boost theuse of ETC for now, but when usage rates reacha certain level, the effect of promotion programs
will gradually weaken. Proliferation due to thepresent stimulation incentives is likely to level
15

To improve the environment next to the Yokohane Line,
the Metropolitan Expressway Public Corporation has instituted environmental road pricing for large vehicles on the
Bay Shore Route to shift traffic from the Yokohane Line to
the Bay Shore Route and the Kawasaki Line. See the Metropolitan Expressway Public Corporation website(http://www.mex.go.jp/ryokin/road_p/road_p.html) for details.
16
To improve the environment around the No. 3 Kobe
Route, the Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation has
instituted environmental road pricing to encourage large
vehicles to use the parallel No. 5 Wangan Route. See theHanshin Expressway Public Corporation website(http://www.hepc.go.jp/torikumi/03/03_05.html) for details.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

13

Table 2-2. Overview of the ETC Promotion Plan for the Second Half of 2004
(including continuing programs)
Implementer
Japan Highway
Public Corporation

Metropolitan
Expressway Public Corporation

Hanshin Expressway Public
Corporation
Other institutions

Source:Specific Promotion Programs (figures in parentheses show targets or start dates)• Purchase assistance for ETC onboard units (300,000 units)• Toll reductions for bulk and frequent users (1 million units, from April 2005)• Mileage discounts for ordinary users (1 million units, from April 2005)• Commuter discounts (excluding sections in outlying urban areas, from January 2005)• Early-morning and late-night discounts (on sections in outlying urban areas, from January 2005)• Late-night discounts (from November 2004)• Tokyo Bay Aqua-Line public-acceptance test (from March 2005)• Toll reductions (500,000 units, from October 2004)• Metropolitan Expressway special segment discounts• Environmental road pricing• Public-acceptance test of Metropolitan Expressway late-night discounts (from March 2005)• Time-limited Metropolitan Expressway ETC discount (from November 2004 to the summer of2005)• Purchase assistance for ETC onboard units (128,000 units)• Toll reductions (250,000 units, summer of 2005)• Environmental road pricing• Time-limited ETC point discount (from January 2005 to the summer of 2005)• Time-limited ETC promotion discount (from November 2004 to the summer of 2005)• Partial refund of installation charges (Organization for Road System Enhancement)• Special discount for the Honshu-Shikoku bridge (Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority)• Local government assistance with public-acceptance tests of smart ICs

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the Organization for Road System Enhancement portal site(http://www.go-etc.jp/) and other materials.

off at about 10 million ETC installations (Figure2-8). Conversely, Japan’s ETC system uses
Dedicated Short Range Communications(DSRC),17 featuring an active technique (cars cantransmit back to the system) and a two-piece arrangement whereby vehicle information is contained in the onboard unit and personal information is contained on an ETC card. The ETC system can thus be easily extended to cover multiple
applications and functions.
These figures indicate that other applications beyond payments on toll roads must be developed for both effective utilization of ETC infrastructure and higher ETC usage rates. The
ETC market is expected to continue to grow once
next-generation ETC car units, capable of multiple applications, are released in 2006 if new services and businesses appear. Note that as ETC
usage rates increase, dedicated ETC lanes at
tollgates will have to be added and upgraded.
Both the government and the private sector
have made some moves in the multiuse ETC
arena. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and
17

The reception area has a radius of about only 15 meters,
but it can achieve data speeds as high as 4 Mbytes/second.
14

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

Communications paved the way for private-sector ETC applications by amending its
ordinances related to radio signals in April 2001.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport released a study group report on applications
for ETC-related technology in March 2004. This
report summarized the group’s findings on ensuring security and protecting personal information when using ETC-related technology on thepremise of using some of the functionality ofpresent-day ETC car units.18 Additionally, theMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is
running demonstration tests of parking-lot services using ETC communication technology
partnered with next-generation ETC units.19 Following these government efforts, the private
sector is gradually commercializing ETC applications. The DSRC Forum Japan, established in
December 2003, is now planning the early deployment of DSRC. Examples from individual18

See the report on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure andTransport website(http://www.its.go.jp/ITS/j-html/Etc/ETCkanren/gaiyou.pdf).
19
Demonstrations were held in March 2004 at the Toyota
Stadium in Toyota, Aichi Prefecture. Next-generation ETC
units are those with the capability to read ordinary IC cards.

corporations include Toyota Tsusho Corporation,
which installed a DSRC system in the parking lot
at its headquarters, and ITS Business Applications Inc., established by Mitsubishi Corporationand other companies, which has been developing
non-stop parking-lot services and other businesses using multifunction ETC car units since2003.20
There is huge potential for various ETC services, as Figure 2-9 illustrates, and companies
are now working out how to turn services into
viable content and business models, althoughproblems with roadside infrastructure and hardware (car units) platforms must also be overcome.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure andTransport has been studying the introduction of
dedicated ETC interchanges (Smart ICs) to makebetter use of existing expressways and to stimulate local economies. As part of these studies, theMinistry is making social experiments of SmartICs connected to SA and PA. Chapter V.2 covers
this area in more detail.

Place

Service Description(1) Payments other than expressway tolls (at gas stations, parking lots,
drive-through restaurants, etc.)

Gas stations(2) Delivery of various information (music, video content, traffic reports, local
sightseeing information)

Drive-through restaurants(3) On-premise directions (directions to empty spaces in parking lots)
Parking lots, service
areas, etc.
(4) IP telephony
Source:Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 2-9. Potential of Multiuse ETC

20

See the ITS Business Applications website(http://www.itsbiz.co.jp/index.html).
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

15

III Advances in Vehicle Safety
through ITS
1.

Outline of Vehicle Safety: From Passive
Safety to Active Safety

Safety devices for cars came into being in the
1990s. The use of passive-type safety devices(collision safety), such as airbags and crash-safebodies that afford protection upon impact grewthroughout the 1990s. In contrast, since 2000
there has been more development and marketingof active-type safety devices, which are designed
to anticipate and prevent accidents.
The crash-safe body emerged as a responseby car manufacturers to changes in safety standard amendments and tougher regulations in Japan and other countries. Toyota (GOA21) andNissan (Zone body) started the trend in 1996 andsoon other makers started using new crash-safebodies. Even as carmakers improved the structural crash worthiness of their cars, they also improved car-interior safety with airbags and seatbelts. Car manufacturers also launched marketing

campaigns around this time promoting the
all-round “safety” of their products. Thechangeover was quick. In the early 90s less than
10% of new cars were equipped with evendriver’s seat airbags, but the installation of airbags climbed rapidly from 1995 and by 2000
nearly 100% of new cars came with driver’s seat
airbags and more than 80% with passenger seat
airbags (Figure 3-2). So while passive safety
progressed swiftly in the 1990s, work remains to
be done; future revisions of safety codes will
demand more sophisticated crash-safe bodies andmore airbag systems, such as side and curtain
shields.
Although the introduction of pre-crash accident-avoidance systems was delayed due totechnical limitations and other factors, efforts
picked up from 2000.22 Since the ultimate aim of
automobile safety measures is to eliminate allaccidents, or eliminate all automobile collisions
with other vehicles and pedestrians, accident-avoidance and pre-crash safeguards will
become more widespread. Statistics show that
75% of traffic accidents are caused by driver error, due to slow reactions or errors in judgment

Crash

Safe guards on the Ve rge of an
Accide nt
Active Safety

Safeguards Before Accidents• T ire-pressure warning system• Notifications through telematics• Lane-departure warning system• ABS• Braking assistance• Anti-skid mechanism
Pre-crash safety

Safe guards at the Mome nt ofan Accide nt
Passive Safety• Airbags• Impact-resistant bodies

Safeguards After Accidents• Accident analysis(drive recorders)• Mayday systems

Emergency communication

Note:

Pre-crash safety combines both passive and active safety. In addition to anticipating a collision, pre-crash safety
consists of safeguards to automatically control collisions and thus minimize injuries (see Table 3-1 for details).
Source: Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport materials.

Figure 3-1. Outline of Vehicle Safety Measures

21

GOA: Global Outstanding Assessment. Under this program, Toyota began using crash-safe bodies on Starlets,
Coronas, and Premios in January 1996 and incrementally
expanded the range of models using these bodies. The program ended about two years later when all Toyota’s passenger vehicles featured crash-safe bodies.
16

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

22
One form of active safety, anti-lock braking (ABS, a system that prevents a vehicle’s wheels from locking up andskidding during emergency braking or when braking on
slippery surfaces), was already commonplace in the 1990s(see Figure 3-2).

100%
80%
60%
40%

Airbags (driver’s seat)
Airbags (passenger seat)
ABS

20%
0%
Dec. 1995

Source:Dec. 2000

Dec. 2002

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 2003 and 2004 White Papers.

Figure 3-2. Cars Equipped with Airbags and ABS

T rainPersonVehicle
Accidents

Other (speeding,6%

impaired driving,

9%etc.) 25%

Errors inOperation
12%

Around 9,000
peopleSingle-Vehicle
Accidents0%

O ther14%

DelayedReactions47%

Source: Prepared by the Development
Bank of Japan from traffic accident
statistics for 2000.

Figure 3-3. Causes of Accidents
or operation. By making cars more intelligent toassist drivers’ perception, judgment, and actions,accident rates will be reduced substantially (Figures 3-3 and 3-4).
The addition of effective accident-avoidance
and pre-crash safeguards to vehicles and theirwidespread deployment are expected to reduce
the number of accidents, deaths and injuries. The
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportand car manufacturers are developing road vehicles, referred to as Advanced Safety Vehicles23

947,993 Traffic
Accidents
Recorded in
2003

Collisions
During Turns
14%

Errors in
Judgment
16%

Rear-End
Collision

Front-End
Collisions
26%

Multi-Vehicle
Accidents

Source:31%85%Prepared by the Development
Bank of Japan from the “Road Statistics
Yearbook 2003.”

Figure 3-4: Traffic Accident
Percentages in 2003
(ASV), equipped with the latest such safety devices. The Ministry is also pursuing infrastructure-side safety support with the Advanced
Cruise-Assist Highway System (AHS) and the
National Police Agency with the Driving Safety
Support System (DSSS) (Figure 3-5). The ultimate aim is to greatly improve safety and reduce
accidents by disseminating safety systems thatunify both infrastructure and vehicle safety successes (road-vehicle coordination).

23

ASV refers to cars equipped with advanced safety technology, using the latest electronics to collect and process
various information and use this information to give feedback and warnings to the driver and to assist driving

through car control. In other words, these cars come withadvanced intelligence (from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport website).
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

17

AHS: Advanced Cruise-Assist High-way System
DSSS: Driving Safety Support System

ASV: Advanced Safety Vehicles• Information-provision services• Driving-assistance services• Auto-cruising services

Roadway-Only
Initiatives

Source:• Sensor technology• Recognition technology• Vehicle control technology

Road-Vehicle
Coor-dination

Vehicle-Only Initiatives

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 3-5. Accident-Avoidance and Pre-Crash Safety Initiatives(ASV, AHS, and DSSS)
2.

2.1. How ASV Works
The Study Group for ASV Promotion, which wasestablished jointly by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, academic experts, andcar manufacturers, has been working on the development and deployment of ASV since 1991.24
Typical features of an ASV are outlined below
and in Figure 3-6.
1) Perception assistance• Adaptive front-lighting system: When negotiating a curve at night, the headlights
automatically adjust the area they illuminate according to the angle of the steering
wheel and the speed of the car.
• Night-vision assistance system: Whendriving at night, this system uses infrared
cameras or radar to assist the driver’s nightvision by displaying images of the road infront of the vehicle.
2)

Judgment assistance• Lane-departure warning system: Whendriving on expressways, this system warns
the driver when the vehicle is about to drift
out of the lane by using a camera to recognize the white lane markers and the car’s

24

The Study Group launched the ASV project in 1991 andis now in the project’s third phase (2001 to 2005). In thethird phase, the Study Group has been examining means ofpromoting the widespread use of ASV in addition to newtechnical developments such as advanced autonomous vehicles and application of communication technology.
18

position.
• Parking-assistance system with voice
guidance: When backing a car into a garage or parallel parking, a monitor showsthe expected path when backing up and an
automated voice gives steering directions.

ASV

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

3)

Driving assistance• Integrated braking/cruise-control system:
When traveling at a constant speed presetby the driver and a slower car is encountered ahead, this system reduces the speed
to keep a constant following distance fromthe vehicle in front.
• Navigation-coordinated transmission control: Based on curve and road-grade information from the navigation system’s map
data and on information about the driver’s
maneuvers, this system automatically controls the transmission’s gear changes.

4)

Integrated assistance• Obstacle-avoidance system (pre-crashsafety): This system monitors following
distances, relative speeds, and the presenceof obstacles with cameras and radar andsounds a warning to the driver when there
is potential for a collision. When a crash is
unavoidable, the system automaticallytightens seatbelts and applies the brakes.

Table 3-1. Typical ASV Products by Function
Category
Perception Assistance

Visual Assistance
Information ProvisionJudgment AssistanceDriving AssistanceDriving-Stress Reduction
Danger AvoidanceIntegrated Assistance

Typical Products
Adaptive front-lighting system
Night-vision assistance system
Identifies accident-prone locations on the navigation monitor
Lane-departure warning system
Parking-assistance system with voice guidanceIntegrated braking/cruise-control system
Navigation-coordinated transmission control
Electronic Stability Control (ESC)
Obstacle-avoidance system (pre-crash safety)
Unified control of ABS, ESC, and other mechanisms (VDIM*)

Note:
Source:*VDIM: Vehicle Dynamics Integrated Management (trademark of Toyota Motor Corporation).
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Junzo Ooe, “Course of Telecommunications Technology in
Automobiles (part 1),” (“Information Processing,” September 2004) and other materials.

Source:Taken from Study Group on the Promotion of ASV.

Figure 3-6. ASV Conceptual Image
Table 3-2. Implementation Rates of ASV Technology (four-wheel vehicles)(Vehicles)
Curve-warning devices
Integrated brake/cruise-control systems
Lane-keeping assist devices
Navigation-coordinated transmission control devices
Drowsiness-warning devices
Number of surveyed (four-wheel) vehicles

Notes:

Source:

2000
8,106
3,389
−
193
8,032
4,575,795

2001
10,720
9,619
947
203
10,737
4,456,909

2002
10,335
24,102422
192
48,3344,472,920

Penetration Ratio
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
−

1. Surveyed (four-wheel) vehicles: passenger vehicles produced in Japan for the Japanese market (including
mini vehicles).
2. See the end of this chapter for a summary of each ASV technology.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from press releases by the Road Transport Bureau, Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure and Transport.

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

19

100%
90%

Standard

Option

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

or
ne
r
C

Ra
d

ar

Cr
u

Bl
in
d

G

on
V
SC
t)
M
on
ito
r
ise
Ra
Ba
C
da
ck
on
rC
So
tro
ru
na
lw
ise
r
ith
C
on
Br
t
ak
ro
l
eC
on
N
A
La
t ro
V
ne
l
I-A
M
Ion
SH
ito
IF
rin
T
g
Sy
st
In
em
te
lli
ge
nt
Pr
A
In
FS
ete
N
C
lli
i
r
g
a
ge
ht
sh
nt
V
Sa
i
Pa
ew
fe
rk
ty
in
Sy
g
st
A
em
ss
is
La
tS
ne
ys
-K
te
ee
m
pi
ng
A
ss
ist
V
D
IM

(fr

in

TR
C

irb
Sh
Ba
ag
ie
ck
ld
-B
A
G
i
ui
oo
rb
de
ag
k
N
M
av
on
ig
ito
at
rs
io
n
Sy
st
em

ss
is
t

A

A

ur
ta

ke

Si
de

SR
S

C

Br
a

SR
S

BS
A
SR
S

Fr
o

nt
A

irb
ag

0%

Notes:

Source:1 The installation percentages were found by dividing the number of Toyota
classes with the above devices and functions as standard or optional equipmentby the total number of Toyota passenger car classes excluding Century and Hiace
vehicles. (Calculations were made based on information valid at the end of October 2004.)
2. The safety device names given here are Toyota trade names. See the end of thischapter for their relationship with ordinary terms.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Toyota Motor Corporation’s new
car catalogs and its website.

Figure 3-7. Installation Rates of Safety Devices and Functions (by class)
When the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport surveyed how many vehicles were
equipped with ASV devices in 2002, it found thepenetration rate to be less than 1% in almost all
surveyed categories (Table 3-1). ASV products
are thus at the very early adoption stage of theirlifecycle. Whether ASV will gradually take rootin the market or die out due to consumer indifference depends largely on the actions of manufacturers and industry. The next section looks at
the penetration rates of all safety devices.
2.2. Present Installation Rate of Safety
Devices
There is no public data showing the extent ofsafety-device installation in vehicles for 2003 and2004 other than the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport statistics in Table 3-2 above,
which are from 2002. In lieu of official statistics,
we gauged the penetration rates of major safety
devices by taking Toyota Motor Corporation as an
example and calculating the percentage of cars byclass equipped with these safety devices (Figure

20

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

3-7).25 (We divided the number of classes available with the devices as standard or optional
equipment by the total number of classes.)This informal survey showed that ABS,
SRS front airbags,26 and brake assist are currently installed on more than 90% of cars, sonearly all users benefit from these safety devices.
In the installation range of 50 to 80% were airbags (side and curtain shield), back-guide monitors, and telematics-ready navigation systems(G-Book). However, these were mainly options,and less than 20% of vehicles included them asstandard equipment. Ranging between 20 and
50% were traction control (TRC), vehicle stability control (VSC), blind-corner and front monitors, back sonar, and radar cruise control. Allother devices were installed on no more than
10% of Toyota’s vehicles.
25

Toyota’s data was selected as representative of generaltrends because its model range covers all segments of thedomestic auto market.
26
See Reference at the end of this chapter for definitions ofsafety devices unless noted otherwise in the text or footnotes.

Yen (10,000s)
35

35%
Average price as an option
Percentage of base price

30

30%

Notes:

Source:Blind Corner Monitor/Front Monitor

Back Guide Monitor

Back Sonar

0%
SRS Airbag(side and curtain shield)

0
TRC and VSC

5%Radar Cruise Control with Brake
Control

10%5Radar Cruise Control with Brake
Control(Low-Speed Tracking Mode)

15%

10

Lane-Keeping Assist System

20%

15

Pre-Crash Safety System(radar system)

20

G-Book Navigation System(without rear-seat display)

25%

Night View

25

1. The average option prices are the median value from the classes equipped withthe most safety equipment and functions from each car series. The percentagesof base prices were calculated by dividing the average option price by thelowest base price among the classes equipped with the option. (Calculations
were made based on information valid at the end of October 2004.)
2. The safety device names given here are Toyota trade names. See the end of
this chapter for their relationship with ordinary terms.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Toyota Motor Corporation’s
new car catalogs and website.

Figure 3-8. Price Levels of Main ASV Components
2.3. Issues Facing the Dissemination of ASV
Technology
The installation rate of ASV functions is expected to rise with each model change, andautomobile manufacturers appear to have draftedmarketing strategies aimed at fully popularizing
ASV.27 However, whether and how fast ASV
grows in line with expectations depend on costand user acceptance.
In terms of cost, manufacturers must reducethe cost to consumers of introducing ASV. Currently, the most expensive ASV components canexceed 300,000 yen (Figure 3-8). Considering
the base price of cars, the cost must be greatly
reduced before real growth can occur. This involves more than just slashing the price of ASV
technology itself; the costs of existing parts and27
According to newspaper reports, Toyota has decided topopularize ASV technology while holding down prices
despite the initial expense. For instance, Toyota plans toequip 80% of its cars in 2006 with AFS (adaptive
front-lighting system), which is currently available on threeseries and four models, and all car series by 2008. (July 9,2004 edition of the Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun)

processes also need to be reduced. Meanwhile, tocomplement industry initiatives, the government
should consider instituting incentive programs
and other assistance for ASV-equipped vehicles.
As the ETC experience has proven, purchasesubsidies and discounts to trigger initial demandcan be enormously effective under certain conditions. Thus, the government should verify theeffectiveness of policies to curb the increasing
number of traffic accidents and traffic injuries
and establish pertinent measures.
Even if cost barriers are lowered, the ASV
market will not expand unless users accept ASV
functionality, as explained in Chapter I; consumer acceptance will dictate the future expansion of ASV technology. Experts frequently
point out that for a high-tech product to gain acceptance in the market, the product must be 1)
technically viable (is the technology practical?),2) reasonably priced (what is the cost-benefit
ratio?), and 3) be truly acceptable to users. Thisimplies that promoters need to convey clearly
how buying an ASV will actually help drivers.
Another problem is the increasing complexity as
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

21

Table 3-3. Major ASV Technologies for Commercial Vehicles
Available in Commercial Forms• Electronic Stability Control• Integrated brake/cruise-control systems• Lane-drift warning systems• Tire-pressure monitors• Blind-corner assistance systems (left-side cameras)
Note:
Source:Names are used giving priority to terms used by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from pamphlets of various companies.

more ASV features are added. Therefore, as the
adoption of ASV proceeds, ingenuity must be
exercised to simplify operations, otherwise
growth cannot be expected. This problem extends beyond makers especially in view of theincreasing number of elderly drivers. The auto
industry and public-private concerns must work
together to make users aware of ASV.28 Presenting its true merits is pivotal for ASV not to become a “chasm” victim, selected only by those
who like the mechanics of ASV or the shimmerof new toys.
2.4. ASV for Commercial Vehicles
There were 2,093 large-scale accidents involving
trucks in 2002, killing 1,132 people, according to
the “Annual Report on Accidents Involving
Commercial Transport Vehicles” (Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure and Transport). Thoughcommercial vehicles make up only a small portion of the number of vehicles in Japan, they account for a disproportionate share of travel distances and cause more damage when accidents
occur. Therefore, developing ASV technology
for commercial vehicles is essential for improving the safety of today’s car society. Many companies have already committed themselves tomaking progress in this area (Table 3-3). A
number of manufacturers have announced plans
to install automatic emergency braking systems
28

For example, familiarizing people with ASV technology,
such as holding hands-on events for people renewing theirdriver’s licenses, is an effective way to spur growth. Furthermore, standardization is needed among manufacturers
concerning ASV product names, operation methods, anddisplay methods. Large differences in terminology and operations between manufacturers (that is to say, when no
dominant design is established) will likely confuse users
and hinder acceptance and growth.
22

Under Development• Obstacle-avoidance system• Driver-condition monitoring systems• Night-vision assistance systems• Pedestrian recognition systems• Periphery awareness systems

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

in large trucks in the next one to two years. One
problem is the difficulty of addressing productliability concerns due to the characteristics oflarge trucks not found in passenger cars, such as
secondary accidents caused by load spillage,
their greater likelihood of overturning due tosudden braking, and overloading of trucks. Solutions will require strong government leadershipas such issues develop.
2.5. Incorporation of Electronics in Cars
and Its EffectElectronic components account for 15% of the
production cost of today’s cars, a percentage thatwill increase as the adoption of ASV technology
precipitates the shift to more automotive electronics. Thus, carmakers cannot escape the factthat electronics technology is spearheading thedevelopment of ASV and associated safety devices and functions. Several trends reflect this.
Vehicles of the 1980s used about 10 microcomputers on average but this figure rose to 20 in theearly 1990s, to 30 in the late 1990s, and now
stands at about 40. Cars now also use ten times
as many as onboard semiconductor devices than
10 years ago: around 100 to 150 devices for ordinary cars and more than 200 for some sophisticated models. Figure 3-9 indicates the make up(real base) of electronic devices in the intermediate inputs to the auto industry as seen in the“SNA Input-Output Tables for Japan.” This percentage has jumped from 6.2% in 1995 to 8.5%
in 2002. Macro statistics also confirm the trend
toward more electronics in automobiles.

10%
9%

8.5%

8%

8.0%

8.1%

00

01

7.5%

7%
6.2%

7.0%

6.8%

97

98

6.5%

6%
5%
95

Source:

96

99

02

(FY)

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the “SNA Input-Output Tables for Japan.”Figure 3-9. Percentage of Electronic Devices in the Intermediate Input to the Car Industry(real base)

The move to more electronics in automobiles holds many implications for industry players. It presents a chance for electronics manufacturers and other new players to enter the market as well as for shakeups in the
profit-distribution patterns over processing(parts) among existing players. As sources ofadded value will be sought in parts and components, the market strength and profitability of
auto-parts manufacturers may improve. Alternatively, automakers and electronics manufacturers
may carve up the component market, even if it
becomes a center of added value, and cut out
auto-parts manufacturers. In any likely scenario,
automakers, electronics makers, and auto-partmakers will compete and form strategic alliances
to seize the technical initiative. Corporations
unable to ride this wave of technology will
struggle to survive.
3.

Demonstration Stages of AHS and DSSS

AHS (Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System)
and DSSS (Driving Safety Support System),
which assist safe driving from the infrastructure
side, are still at the testing and demonstration
stages. Practical installations are not expecteduntil 2007 or later (Table 3-4).
AHS attempts to prevent accidents before
they happen by giving drivers (through displays
and other means) real-time information on accidents and traffic jams ahead. AHS uses sensors

and road-to-vehicle communications to provide
this information. Testing of AHS for eventual
application is centering on seven services (Figure3-10) selected by analyzing traffic accident
causes. AHS is now being tested along highways
at seven locations across the country, and accident rates have fallen dramatically at some ofthese sites, prompting hope that AHS is the key
to reducing accident rates.29 Current plans aim to
install AHS roadside devices at 100 locations
nationwide where AHS is thought to be especially beneficial, and commercial-type AHS receivers are due to be installed in 2007.
DSSS, on the other hand, attempts to reduce
traffic accidents by informing drivers in real timeabout what is in the vicinity of their cars (such aspedestrians or two-wheeled vehicles behindthem). DSSS displays this information on outdoor message signboards and/or employs opticalbeacons to send information to car navigation
units. DSSS will be important since 56% of traffic accidents occur at intersections (Figure 3-11).
29

Testing uses radio signals in the 5.8 GHz band to provide
information to cars. Since operating in this band requires aradio license, testing has been limited to test cars only. Private automobiles, as yet, cannot benefit from AHS. The testsite along National Route 24, however, uses roadside signs
to warn of danger so that all vehicles on the highway canmake use of the AHS information. The number of accidents
at this site has plummeted. Therefore, officials expect evengreater reductions in accidents after the envisioned system
is fully integrated with in-vehicle displays and alarms in the
future.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

23

Table 3-4. AHS and DSSS Demonstrations
AHS• Demonstrated in seven locations nationwide• Tested providing information on upcoming obstacles inareas of poor visibility and signaling warnings when entering curves• Upcoming infrastructure is being prepared for application in 2007
Source:DSSS• Demonstrated in Toyota, Aichi Prefecture• Tested providing rear-end collision avoidance information, pedestrian crosswalk information, and speed information

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Source:Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System Research Association website(http://www.ahsra.or.jp/).

Figure 3-10. AHS Overview (seven systems)

Railway Crossings
0%

Other Locations
2%

Ordinary
Single-Lane
Roads
37%

947,993 Traffic
Accidents Recorded in
FY2003

Intersections
56%

Curves and Bends
4%
Bridges1%

Source:Tunnels0%

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from “Traffic Statistics
2003.”

Figure 3-11. Accident Locations in 2003 (by road type)24

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

At a test site in Toyota, Aichi Prefecture, tests ofproviding rear-end collision avoidance information, pedestrian-crossing information, and speed
information are underway.
It will take time and money to launch andnurture AHS and DSSS services, and both require the prior development of infrastructure andonboard devices. Thus, the government musttake the lead to shorten rollout timeframes and tosustain private corporations’ interest in devel-

opment. It is also important to prioritize the basis
of AHS and DSSS services as existing ITS services are expanded. For instance, DSSS is due toupload information from optical beacons to
car-mounted devices, but as mentioned in Chapter II.1, very few current VICS navigation systems can receive optical beacons. The government should address this by taking measures topromote the use of three-media VICS.

Reference: Names of Safety Devices in Figures 3-7 and 3-8
Product (Option) NameABS
SRS airbag (front)
Brake assist
SRS airbag (side)
SRS airbag (curtain shield)
Back guide monitor
G-Book navigation system
TRC
VSC

Blind corner monitor/front
monitor
Back sonar
Radar cruise control
Radar cruise control withbrake control
Navi-AI-Shift
Lane monitoring system
Intelligent AFS
Night view
Pre-crash safety system
Intelligent parking assist
Lane-keeping assist system
Vehicle Dynamics Integrated
Management (VDIM)
Source:General Name and/or Description
Anti-lock braking system (see page 17)
Airbag installed in front of the driver and passenger seats. SRS stands for supplemental
restraint system, meaning the airbag supplements the use of seatbelts.
Mechanism that judges sudden braking by the speed and force of the brake pedal’s
movement and applies stronger braking force based on this decision
Airbag installed beside seats (near chest height)
Airbag that cushions against side impacts; opens between the side window and thefront-seat passenger’s head
Automatically displays a view behind the car on a monitor when backing up
Car navigation system capable of receiving G-Book services, a telematics service run by
ToyotaMechanism that senses when the car is skidding and controls the car’s braking and engine
output to maintain the car’s stability
Mechanism that keeps the drive wheels from spinning when driving or accelerating on
slippery surfaces and maintains the appropriate drive power to support smooth acceleration and car stability (normally called ESC, Electronic Stability Control)
Mechanism using a front-mounted camera that shows the driver’s blind spots on a monitor
Driving-support mechanism that uses a buzzer or indicator lamp to indicate when the car
is approaching an obstacle
Mechanism that maintains a constant speed
Integrated brake/cruise-control system (see page 18)
Navigation-coordinated transmission control (see page 18)
Lane-drift warning system (see page 18)
Adaptive front-lighting system (see page 18)
Night-vision assistance system (see page 18)
Obstacle-avoidance system (see page 18)
System that assists with steering when parking in a garage or when parallel parking
Mechanism that helps the driver stay in lane
System that controls ABS, TRC, VSC, and other functions in an integrated fashion basedon factors such as accelerator and steering wheel movements and information from othersensors

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Toyota Motor Corporation’s website and Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure and Transport’s Road Transport Bureau’s website (some items are quoted directly).

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

25

IV Advanced Information Services and Communication Networks
ITS will not suddenly sweep the country because
it requires public infrastructure to be built. Nevertheless, telematics, which provides informationand services to vehicles via existing communication structures, is growing gradually under the
direction of carmakers. This chapter examines
telematics offered by automobile manufacturers,
as a case study of the increasing sophistication of
information services, as well as other information services and evolving efficiencies of distribution systems.
1.

Telematics30 by Automakers

1.1. What is Telematics?
The term “telematics” was coined from “telecommunications” and “informatics.” In the ITS
context, telematics refers to the provision of information and other services made possible bybidirectional communications between cars andtheir surroundings. Telematics includes services
similar to those received by computers or cellphones (ordinary services) as well as native services to cars, such as emergency-support services
and remote maintenance. Different providers offer different services through telematics (see below).
Table 4-1. Classes of Telematics Services
Class
Servicecontent

Source:Ordinary Services• General information(news, parking info,
etc.)• Entertainment (music downloads,
karaoke, etc.)• Communications(e-mail)• Shopping

Car-Specific Services• Navigation• Emergency support(road assistance)• Remote maintenance(notifications of whento replace parts)• Management of travellogs

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan fromvarious materials.

30
This section covers telematics services for passenger cars.
The next section briefly deals with telematics services intended for commercial vehicles.

26

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

1.2. Efforts by Automakers
Major car companies launched the first generation of telematics services in the late 1990s.
First-generation services were hampered by highcommunication fees and low communication
speeds and only a few thousand people subscribed. (Other reasons preventing growth included high device prices and the inability toprovide services suitable for cars.) Since thesecond generation’s arrival in 2002 with agreater variety of services, consumers have become acquainted with telematics due not only to
lower communication prices and improved
speeds but also to other technical advances(navigation systems with built-in HDD and voice
guidance) and its prevalence in society (growthof the Internet and cellphones)31.
On the development side, the telematics
business is a huge investment for automakers,
and it is difficult for companies with small market shares to follow the trajectory of the telematics business on their own because its products
exhibit network effects.32 As a result, some corporations are employing other companies’ products instead of developing their own.
1.3 Importance of Telematics to Car Companies
Car companies are drawn to telematics becauseof its effectiveness in adding value to cars and asa customer-relations management (CRM) tool.
These in turn lead to more earnings opportunities
for the auto business.

31

For example, permitting the business of providing
road-traffic information to the private sector (see page 30) is
also contributing to the development of the second telematics generation.
32
There are both direct and indirect network effects. With
direct effects, the benefit of buying the product or service isdetermined by the number of people owning (using) the
product or service. Examples include telephones and fax
machines. Indirect effects occur with two complementary(mutually dependent) products or services. For example, as
more people buy DVD players, more DVD titles are released, thus attracting more people to buy DVD players.

Daihatsu
ToyotaApr. 98 M onet

M itsubishi

Oct. 02 G-Book
M azdaPassenger
VehiclesSubaruNissanSep. 98 Compass Link

Honda

July 98 InterNavi

July 00 M azda Telematics
M ar. 02 Car Wings
SuzukiCommercial
VehiclesFeb. 04
M imamori-Kun Online Service

Isuzu
98

Source:Oct. 02 InterNavi Premium Club

99

00

01

02

03

04

05 (year)

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 4-1. Commercialization of Telematics by Car Manufacturers

Telematics is a critical link in improving
what cars are meant to do: arrive at the destination quickly. As already described, it is difficult
with today’s VICS to display the shortest route to
the destination and update the route in real time.
If telematics can deliver information that VICS
cannot and suggest optimum routes to drivers, itwill boost sales of carmakers’ products. Furthermore, telematics can provide various information services and so make cars more comfortable and fun. This will be an important marketing tool toward young users, who are tending tomove away from cars.
Telematics will also help automakers in thefield of CRM, with a renewed focus on
after-sales service, a notoriously weak area, andin new-car sales promotion by perpetuating
contact points with customers. Indeed, several
companies have apparently made CRM the true
aim of their telematics services.
1.4. The Telematics Value Chain and Future
Prospects
The telematics value chain closely resembles thatof the cellphone. Many observers anticipate participants from outside the auto industry to enter
the markets for telematics hardware, communications, and content provision. For example,
since the cellphone market for voice is projected
to level off at around 80 to 90 million subscribers,
cellphone firms (corresponding to connection
service providers in Figure 4-2) are eyeing data
communications and data-communication terminals as their future growth engines. Alreadycellphone companies are starting to compete in
the car arena with expectations that telematics
will be a central data communications market.33
The telematics market is potentially huge;
there are more than 70 million cars in Japan, but
the switch to IT in this area has only just begun.
The pursuit of telematics business models should
spur competition and strategic alignments. For
example, while cellphone companies and automakers will collaborate in certain areas as shown
below, they will also compete to deliver information and services to cars via cellphones. Similarly, manufacturers of third-party car navigation
devices are expected to try to preserve and expand their customer bases by rolling out theirown telematics business in resistance to carmakers, while broadening their production and salesof genuine-brand car navigation devices compatible with automakers’ telematics services.

33

KDDI provides dedicated data communications modules
compatible with next-generation high-speed wireless data
communication systems (CDMA 2000 1x with a data rate of
144 kbps) to Toyota’s G-Book and Pioneer’s Air Navi (acommunicating car navigation unit providing telematics
services from commercial unit makers). NTT DoCoMo has
started full-wireless services with Bluetooth in association
with Nissan and Nissan’s Car Wings service.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

27

Table 4-2. Summary of Telematics Services for Passenger Vehicles
Members

Cost (not including sign-up
charges)

60,000 (as of theend of August
2004)

16,080 yen/year (includes
communication fees)or 5,160 yen/year (communication fees are separate)

55,000 (as of theend of July 2004)

Free for three years

Service Characteristics

G-Book (Toyota)

Car Wings(Nissan)InterNavi Premium Club
(Honda)• Ordinary information services > navigation information• More emphasis on security services (included in basic
packages)• Built-in communicator (can be used with cellphones too)
• Subaru, Daihatsu, Mitsubishi Motors, and Mazda plan toparticipate• Navigation information > ordinary information services• Communicator is separate (user’s cellphone is needed)• Suzuki is also participating• Navigation information > ordinary information services• Delivers road traffic information such as traffic-jam predictions made by Honda• Communicator is separate (user’s cellphone is needed)• Unique to Honda (no tie-ups with other firms)

146,000 (as of theend of September
2004)

Free for three years (remains
free after first three years
except for the costs of map
updates)

Sources: Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from company websites and newspaper reports.

Communications

Communications

Infrastructure

Connection
Service P roviders

Content
Providers

Consumers

Portals

Retailing

G-Book, InterNavi Premium
Club, Compass Link, etc.

Construction

Cellphones, wireless, DSRC, etc.

Content

Car dealers, car accessory shops, etc.
Device M akers
Car navigation device manufacturers
Part M akers
HardwareSource:Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 4-2. Telematics Value Chain
With this background, the top priority forcar companies is attracting members. For instance, some manufacturers mine the actual
driving data from their members (known asprobe data) to improve the accuracy of destination route searches. This type of service relies on
direct network effects, so the number of members affects the quality of the service. Meanwhile,through indirect network effects, the more members, the more attractive content that can be supplied to customers. Several companies are using
free membership and free communication devices to lure new users, but to radically boost
membership companies will probably have tosupport add-on navigators (users buying
third-party car navigation units) as well. Cur-28

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

rently, only cars equipped with manufacturer-installed car navigation systems can receive
telematics services, but there are many more users who install third-party units or dealer optional units. To strengthen their CRM, companies
will have to reach out to these users as well.34
Alternatively, producers of third-party navigation
systems may develop and incorporate their own
telematics businesses for this market segment(resulting in a more fragmented market).
Regarding the position of telematics in the34
Some telematics services are premised on the idea of
conveying information with onboard LANs, but it is possible to develop telematics businesses to added-on navigation
units not connected to any onboard LAN as well by narrowing down the scope of services.

-50

Dedicated T elematics Communication Device(data communication module)*1
T elematics Usage Fees (yearly)*2

100

150

30

16

189

Marketing and Advertising Expenses Per Vehicle(for car manufacturers, consolidated base)*4

55

Gross Profit on Sales Per Vehicle (Car Dealerships)*5

201

Annual maintenance expense of passenger cars (average)*6

Source:250

Yen (1,000s)

Operating Profit Per Vehicle(for car manufacturers, consolidated base)*3

Notes:

200

37

1. *1 Unit price of Toyota’s G-Book communication device at dealerships (as of January 2005).
2. *2 Usage fees for a one-year contract with Toyota’s G-Book (as of January 2005).
3. *3 Toyota’s consolidated operating profit/consolidated vehicle sales.
4. *4 Toyota’s consolidated marketing and advertising expenses/consolidated vehicle sales.
5. *5 Combined gross profits from all model dealerships in the survey.
6. *6 Annual maintenance expense is a total for inspection, tire change, oil change and other maintenance expenses.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan based on the Toyota Motor Corporation Web site, 55th Car
Dealership Sales Survey Report (Japan Automobile Dealers Association and the questionnaire survey
conducted in Nov. 2003 by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport).

Figure 4-3. Relative Costs of Telematics Businesses
car value chain, telematics is a promising tool tomaintain and strengthen precise contact withcustomers for new-car sales. In other ways,
however, the car business differs from the mobile-phone business; it is essentially a one-offsales business and does not collect continuing
fees from customers once the car has been sold.
For this reason, customers will resist any mechanism that collects monthly or yearly fees. Nevertheless, telematics is a powerful tool in theoverall car value chain for keeping brand loyalty
and building the customer base. It also offers
value in the inspection and repair business, particularly in strengthening dealership sales systems.
Companies in the telematics business have
yet to deliver satisfactory services (value) tocustomers or receive increased returns. Based on
business characteristics driven by improved
communication environments (which further improve the business viability of telematics) andnetwork effects, car manufacturers are anxious tocreate business models by fusing hardware,communications, and content, that can delivercustomer value and profits.

2.

Information Service Businesses other than
Telematics

New developments are emerging in information
service businesses outside the telematics business. These information service businesses canbe grouped into three classes: safety (emergency
reporting, etc.), comfort and entertainment (traffic information, broadcasting, multiuse ETC,etc.), and environment (fuel conservation assistance, car-sharing, etc.). When viewed by business structure, they can be classified as services
that add value to existing businesses (fuel conservation assistance for commercial vehicles),
new industry services (completely new businesses such as emergency reporting or traffic
information) and new business type services(new forms of existing businesses such asbroadcasting or multiuse ETC). Providers ofthese services encompass from large corporations to venture enterprises, but in many sectors
groups of companies are likely to form businessalliances.
The government, through regulatory reforms, has a role to play in creating these new
information service businesses. For example, theMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

29and the National Policy Agency released the“Basic Concept on Approaches to Providing
Road Traffic Information” report in March 2002.
The release of road traffic information to theprivate sector based on this document paved theway to new entrants in the traffic information
services sector.
Although these information service businesses are still developing in both size and revenue, they are expected to expand steadily in themedium to long term through integration with
the Internet. The establishment of probe informa-tion systems35 may lead to broader and more
substantial services, such as providing real-timetraffic and weather conditions or deploying taxis
more effectively. The Internet ITS Consortium(formed by concerned corporations) is considering linking the Internet with ITS and is conducting tests required to construct the underlying
structures. Work is still in the preliminary stages
and, as described below, many issues must be
solved such as the standardization of infrastructure and onboard devices.

Table 4-3. Main ITS-related Information Service Businesses(other than passenger vehicle telematics)
Service Class

Company and Product NameJapan Mayday Service/Helpnet

Emergency Reporting Services

Emergency Medical Network of Helicopter and Hospital/Doctor Heli

Description
Began in 2000 an emergency reporting service for cars using navigation
systems
Facilitates the active use of helicopters by emergency physicians

Advanced Traffic Information Service(ATIS) Corporation

Converts traffic information collected by the Japan Road Traffic Information Center to traffic-condition maps or text information and provides
these to cellphones or computers

Edia

Developing an information content business for cellphones and car navigation units

Position Information
Services

Zenrin DataCom

Provides map information and position-related information via computers,
cellphones, and car navigation units

Broadcasting Services

Mobile Broadcasting Corporation

Started a satellite broadcasting service business for mobile users in October 2004 (announcement planned soon for a car-mounted receiver)Isuzu Motors/Mimamori-Kun Online

Telematics for commercial vehicles (in addition to creating
fuel-consumption reports, the service also analyzes trip times and warnsof accident-prone locations)Traffic Information
Services

Energy-Saving
Driving AssistanceNissan Diesel/ “Nenpi-Ou” (Mileage
King)
Hino Motors/Hino Drive Master
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and
Bus/Next-generation FTSS (underdevelopment)
ITS Research InstituteFuel-conservation assistance systems that give directions to the driver inreal time, by automated voice or warning tones, on ideal driving (detailsof services vary among the providers)Studying the provision of services for downloading music and data

Multiuse ETC

Car-sharing

Source:ITS Business Applications

Implementing non-stop parking services

Various sites nationwide

Tests are being conducted at about a dozen sites across Japan to alleviatetraffic congestion and reduce environmental impacts through car-sharing

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

35

Probe information systems regard cars as mobile sensors.
By extracting such information as traffic conditions, timerequirements, and weather conditions from individual cars,
the system can collect and analyze this data for provisionpurposes.

30

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

3.

More Efficient Distribution System
Making Use of ITS

Information services may yield ways to make the
distribution industry more efficient. Japan’s distribution system is highly dependent on truck
transport, which has adverse effects on traffic
congestion and the environment (Figure 4-4).
Although the need for a modal shift has long
been recognized, due to a series of problems theindustry has made little headway. ITS technology offers a way to achieve this modal shift andimprove efficiency in the distribution industry.
For example, the truck distribution industry
is finally starting to raise driving efficiency using
digital tachographs and GPS and investigating
joint delivery systems using ITS. Cargo handlingat
nodal
points(railway-to-truck
andtruck-to-railway), a notorious weak point, will
become much more efficient when ITS is integrated with IC tag technology, leading to a real
modal shift. Although the effect will be limitedin the short term since it will take time to build
the infrastructure to share product information

700,000

among multiple businesses, with government
backing36 distribution efficiency will be improved through ITS. Furthermore, such efficiency improvements are not limited to B2B andB2C transportation; improved efficiencies in
on-premise distribution can raise operational efficiencies and safety.
Overloaded vehicles put excessive strain onroad fixtures and frequently cause major accidents.
ITS may even be able to remedy this problem with
the installation of roadside vehicle-monitoring systems to strengthen management, guidance, andcontrols on special-use vehicles.
4.

Communication Networks for ITS
Implementation

The information services described above andthe many ITS functions are premised on the exchange of information between vehicles androads, vehicles and other vehicles, vehicles androads with people, and vehicles and Internet
gateways. Thus, ITS depends on telecommunication technology and communication structures.

(in millions of ton-kilometers)(%)

600,000

60
50

500,000

40

400,000
30
300,000
20

200,000

10

100,000001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Motor Vehicle
Domestic Shipping
Percentage by Motor Vehicles (right axis)

Railways
Air

Source: “Land Transport Statistics Directory 2003.”

Figure 4-4. Trends in Transportation Ratios by Conveyance
36

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and theMinistry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport set up theGreen Partnership in association with Nippon Keidanren,
Japan Federation of Freight Industries, and Japan Instituteof Logistics Systems in September 2004 and have announced various initiatives to cut the environmental impactof the distribution industry through joint deliveries andother measures.
Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

31

ASP, CPISP・・・・・・・・・・・

ISP

T elematics Portal

IP Network

ISP

・・・・

Short-range

ISP

Communication Networks

Personal, Office

Non-IP Network

Mobile-Phone
Network

GPS, T errestrial
DigitalExternal Server• DSRC• Wireless LAN• Optical Beacon
Human-to-Vehicle
Human-to-Road

Communications

Vehicle-to-Vehicle
Communications

Communications

Pedestrian
ITS

Note:
Source:Road-to-Vehicle
Communications

ISP: Internet Service Provider, ASP: Application Service Provider, CP: Content Provider.
Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from Internet Council materials and other sources.

Figure 4-5. Future Car Communication Networks
Various wireless communications, such as
GPS, DSRC, cellphones, and beacons, are used
for extravehicular communications. For ITS tomove forward, however, a seamless information
environment which links these communication
media with the Internet needs to be constructed.
This includes improving the performance of each
communication media and establishing infrastructure, as well as standardizing both hardware(onboard devices) and software on common
platforms (Figure 4-6). For this standardizationand platform establishment, it will take time toharmonize the interests of the various players,
but the work will be driven by private-sector
corporations using their ingenuity to seek earlymarket introduction, and the incentives to develop technology will strengthen.
For communications within a vehicle (that is,communications linking onboard electronic
components), wire harnesses are used. But tominimize the number of wires, multiplexedcommunications are frequently employed. These
networks are classed as body type, operation type,and information type according to the purpose of
32

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

the communications (Figure 4-7). The requirements for each type are different and each year
in-vehicle communications become more complex. Japan is becoming involved in standardization in this area.37 Regarding vehicle-to-vehiclecommunications, consortiums have already been
established in Europe and the United States, andin response Japan is setting up an investigative
body to develop standards that are advantageous
for the country. Some car manufacturers are also
looking into the future by participating in US
consortiums.

37
Toyota, Nissan, and others formed the Japan Automotive
Software Platform and Architecture (JASPAR) nonprofit
organization in September 2004. JASPAR is embarking on
efforts in standardization and shared use of networks andsoftware in electronic control systems on vehicles.

C ommon Platform Establishme nt
International Standardiz ation Advances• Construction of DSRC Integrated Networks• Unified management of road information• Generalize data formats for different types of information• Improve accuracy of position detection and digital mapping• Realization of multiple applications in one onboard unit
• Establishment of security guidelines••

Source:ISO (International Organization forStandardization)/ T C 204
IT U (International T elecommunication Union)/SG 8••

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 4-6. Standardization Efforts and Common Platform

Information Communications(large capacity)
VICS, ETC, car navigation, cameras,
radarControl Communications(high speed and high reliability)
ABS, steering, ACC, electronicallycontrolled brakes

Gateway

Body Communications(low speed)
Window control, dashboard meters, keyless entry

Source:Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from various materials.

Figure 4-7. Vehicle Communication Systems

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

33

V

Future Prospects
1.

Multiple Effects of ITS

As noted in Chapter I, ITS provides a sustainabletransportation system leading to a ubiquitous
society. The process of building ITS will bringnew technologies and business structures to theautomotive and automotive-related industries,
thus strengthening the competitiveness of theJapanese car industry and spawning new industries. Through development of the many technologies needed for ITS, Japanese car manufacturers will build a world-leading foundation in
auto safety, paving the way for venture businesses in the ITS field. Opportunities will also
emerge for both quantitative and qualitative
growth in the software industry as automobiles
becomes increasingly dependent on software.
The auto industry has a greater impact on Japan’s
economy and industry than any other.38 And as
the telecommunications and distribution industries, which are an integral part of ITS, are also
extremely large, ITS has the power to drive theentire industry of the nation.
ITS will also make administration more efficient. For instance, administrative services canbe run more efficiently by using Smart plates,
which digitize the management of vehicle data.
ITS can also lead to the optimization ofPlan-Do-Check cycles in roadway administrationby collecting information from probe cars.39
Currently, there are few visible effects of ITS,
but its full potential is expected to become
clearer as it develops.
2.

ITS and Regional Development

ITS also has a major effect on regional development. As mentioned in Chapter II, environmentalroad pricing with ETC can improve the roadway
environment, and using VICS to provide information on traffic conditions can speed up accessto urban areas. Moreover, as ETC expands,
low-cost, space-saving dedicated ETC interchanges (Smart ICs) are becoming more practical,
which will improve regional access to expressways and thus stimulate economic development.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is conducting demonstration projects ofSmart ICs in 27 locations nationwide to identify
potential issues.
Table 5-1. The Impact of ITS on the EarthITS Service Example
ETC pricing strategies (large nighttime discounts)
Provision of traffic-condition datawith VICS
Establishment of dedicated ETC
interchanges (smart ICs)
Introduction of bus-location system
Introduction of PTPS (Public
Transportation Priority Systems)

Source:Impact on the Earth
Improved environments near
expressways and trunk roads
Better access to core areas
Better access to expressways
More convenient public
transportation
More convenient public
transportation

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan fromvarious materials.

ITS is also making public transportation
more convenient, as evidenced by thebus-location system and Public Transportation
Priority Systems (PTPS). The bus-location system shows users in real time the current locationof a bus, its estimated time of arrival at a given
bus stop, and the scheduled time to a destination.
The first GPS-capable system arrived in 1989
and it has been spreading gradually ever since,
and around 80 bus operators (10% of all operators) have now adopted the system (Figure 5-1).
Trials are underway on providing this information via the Internet to cellphones.40

38

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Simple
Extended Input-Output Table shows that the passenger-vehicle sector had the largest production impact in 2003.
The automotive sector including all other vehicles was second.
39
By collecting traffic-congestion information in real timethat was previously difficult to obtain, administration officials can determine what strategies are effective in cutting
congestion, decide what activities should receive priority
budgeting, and measure and evaluate the effectiveness ofpolicies and activities.
34

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

40
The Chubu District Transport Bureau of the Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure and Transport conducted a trial in 2003
of an optimal routing system (Yuri Navi) combining buses
and subways in Nagoya. See the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport website(http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/sesaku/koukyo/businfo/2004
0204-1pamphlet.pdf) for details.

Number of Bus Operators Running the System(cumulative)

(%)

80

40
GPS
Non-GPS
Percent of shared-bus operators

60

30

40

20

20

10

Source:

0

0

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2004

“ITS Handbook 2004–2005” (originally taken from materials by the Road Bureau of
the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport).

Figure 5-1. Bus Operators Adopting the Bus-Location System
Meanwhile, PTPS (public transportation
priority systems) are helping buses to run onschedule. The system works by sending the vehicle’s ID from a device mounted on the bus to the
local traffic control center via optical beacons
installed along roadways (near intersections).
Based on the bus’s ID, the traffic control center
slightly adjusts upcoming traffic signals, such as
extending green signals or shortening red signals,
to let the bus pass through more quickly thanother vehicles. A report by the National Policy
Agency at the end of October 2004 stated that 75
operators (98 routes, for a total distance of 480
kilometers) in 34 prefectures had introduced
PTPS. Under the “e-Japan Priority Policy Program,” PTPS is to be deployed nationwide by theend of 2005, and the National Policy Agency,
other authorities, and bus operators are continuing to examine PTPS adoption.41 If public transportation can be made more convenient throughsuch means, PTPS may help balance the load
distribution among transportation modes and reduce car traffic and traffic congestion.
There is no single universal format for ITS
to address the unique issues of each region andcommunity. Indeed, localizing ITS is importantto reach out to people in each community to foster familiarity in coordination with policies at thenational level. To raise awareness and build in41
See the IT Strategic Headquarters website at
http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/it2/kettei/ejapan2004/0406
15-34.html.

terest in ITS among local residents, some local
regions have set up liaison bodies and launchedindustry-academia projects for local coordination.
It is hoped that such industry-academia cooperation and testing in model areas will continue.
3.

Conclusions: Strengthening Japan’s
Economy and Industry with ITS

The “Comprehensive Plan for Intelligent Transport Systems,” formulated in 1996, envisionedthat ITS would move from Phase 1 to Phase 2
around 2005 and that many user services would
come online. The paper also forecast that the ITS
market would grow from 2000 to be worth 60
trillion yen by 2015, growing about 2.6 trillion
yen per year in 2005. Comparing today’s conditions with this projection, some pioneering services such as ETC and VICS are indeed inwidespread use and new services are emerging.
In terms of market size, ITS already has an accumulated worth of 12 trillion yen and so appears to be on target with the plan in both market
scale and schedule (Figure 5-2). Nevertheless,corporations leading the ITS wave are facing a
tougher business environment than imaginedwhen the plan was drawn up, and the present
state of progress is not entirely satisfactory forsustaining corporate efforts. Government initiatives must therefore be redoubled to accelerate
deployment timetables and encourage earlymarket expansion, in order to encourage cor-

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

35

31

Initial Forecasts(2000 to 2015)

1

Actual Performance

60

Source:19

10Services
Terminal Devices
Infrastructure and Related

5

10

20

30

40

60 Yen (trillions)50

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from a report by the Telecommunication
Technology Council (February 1999) and materials from the Smartway Project Advisory
Committee.

Figure 5-2. ITS Market Size (initial forecasts and actual performance)

Source:Produce in-vehicle devices

2006
Install roadside devices

Establish standards andspecifications

2005
Initiate joint research

AHS and DSSS
(Provide information from roads to invehicle devices to aid driving)

Define services

2004
Multiuse ETC• Manages entrances and exits
from facilities• Payments for parking spaces• Payments at gas stations

2007

2008 –

Begin full-fledged services

Begin full-fledged services

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from “ITS Handbook 2004–2005” and materials fromthe Smartway Project Advisory Committee.

Figure 5-3. Implementation Process of Multiuse ETC, AHS, and DSSS
porations to develop ITS.
As mentioned previously, because of theimportance of ITS-related industries (automotive,
distribution, and telecommunications) to Japan’s
overall economy, the government must continue
to pursue policies that enable ITS to raise theinternational competitiveness of Japanese industries. It is no longer sufficient to consider theJapanese domestic market alone; we must consider to what degree ITS will contribute to theglobal business expansion of Japanese corporations.
Encompassing roads, transport, vehicles,
and communications, ITS is a huge project involving both local regions and citizens alongwith many industries and government agencies.
The examples cited in this paper — multiuse
36

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

ETC (Chapter II) and AHS and DSSS (Chapter
III) — indicate that widespread deployment willtake several years of steady progress.
A liaison committee between related government agencies has been established and partnerships between government, industry, andacademia have been started. The Japan ITS Promotional Conference, which was established as avenue for meetings between high-level representatives of government, industry, and academia,
released the “Executive Summary of ITS Promotion Guideline” in October 2004. This document
split ITS into five themes and 16 areas and recommended the promotion of ITS while prioritizing projects, encouraging users and society toadopt ITS, and maintaining transparency in theevaluation of target attainment. Whether theserecommendations are incorporated in actual
government policies or corporate activities is key
to the future development of ITS.
In consideration of the time and initial investment sums needed to develop social awareness of ITS and fulfill projects, a more unified

approach and more appropriate role-sharing
among the major players are required. If leadtimes to market creation can be reduced evenslightly, user demand and the ingenuity of private corporations will drive further ITS development.

Improving the safe ty of road traffic
T he intelligent automobile
Enhancement of infrastructure
Vehicle-to-vehicle and road-to-vehicle cooperation
Supporting the safety of pedestrians, bicyclists, andmotorcyclists• Enhancement of first-aid and rescue of trafficaccident victims••••

Ensuring smoothe r traffic andre ducing e nvironme ntal burde ns• Optimization of traffic demand• Advanced road traffic management systems• Advanced parking systems• Increase in efficiency of freight distribution

Improving conve nie nce to individuals• Raising the quality of provided road traffic
information and promoting its active used
• Advanced application of IT S content• Improving convenience to the elderly anddisabled

Source:Preparation of a common platform andpromotion of inte rnational stan-dards andglobal te chnical regulations• Construction of an IT S platform• Promotion of international standards andglobal technical regulations

Stimulating re gional e conomic
activity• Improving access between regions and expressways• Raising the convenience of inter-modal transport
using public transportation

Prepared by the Development Bank of Japan from the “Executive Summary of ITS Promotion Guideline,”
Japan ITS Promotion Conference.

Figure 5-4. Priority Areas in the “Executive Summary of ITS Promotion Guideline”

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

37

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Ooe, Junzo. 2004. Course of Telecommunications
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Web Sites:
Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System Research
Association (http://www.ahsra.or.jp/)
DSRC Forum Japan (http://www.arib.or.jp/dsrc/)
Organization for Road System Enhancement(http://www.go-etc.jp/)
Highway Industry Development Organization(http://www.hido.or.jp/)
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Road Transport Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/roadtransport.htm)
Traffic Management and Control Division, National
Policy Agency(http://www.npa.go.jp/koutsuu/kisei/index.html)

Vehicle Information and Communication System
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Toyota Motor Corporation(http://www.toyota.co.jp/index.html andhttp://toyota.jp/)
Nissan Motor, Co., Ltd. (http://www.nissan.co.jp/)
Honda Motor, Co., Ltd. (http://www.honda.co.jp/)
Hino Motors, Ltd.
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Denso Corporation (http://www.denso.co.jp/ja/)

Development Bank of Japan Research Report/ No. 52

39

List of Back Numbers (Including JDB Research Report)
No. 52 Intelligent Transport System (ITS): Current State and Future Prospects (this issue)
No. 51 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Pause in Recovery, March 2005
No. 50 Corporate Capital Spending Behavior and Innovation Efforts: Findings of Survey on Capital Spending
Behavior (Conducted in November 2004), March 2005
No. 49 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005 (Conducted in November 2004),
January 2005
No. 48 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Medium-term Outlook of Japanese Industrial Structure, January 2005
No. 47 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2003, 2004 and 2005 (Conducted in June 2004),
September 2004
No. 46 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Impact of Rising International Commodity Prices on Corporate Input/Output Behavior, September 2004
No. 45 How Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Can Enhance the Fight against Global Warming, August 2004
No. 44 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: A Medium-term Scenario for the Japanese Economy with
Special Focus on the Flow of Funds and Finance, March 2004
No. 43 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2002, 2003 and 2004 (Conducted in August 2003),
November 2003
No. 42 Promoting Corporate Measures to Combat Global Warming: An Analysis of Innovative Activities in the
Field, September 2003
No. 41 Prospects and Challenges for End-of-Life Vehicle Recycling, May 2003
No. 40 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2002 and 2003 (Conducted in February 2003),
May 2003
No. 39 China’s Economic Development and the Role of Foreign-Funded Enterprises, May 2003
No. 38 Decline in Productivity in Japan and Disparities Between Firms in the 1990s: An Empirical Approach
Based on Data Envelopment Analysis, April 2003
No. 37 Trends in Socially Responsible Investment: Corporate Social Responsibility in a New Phase, March
2003
No. 36 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: A Medium-term Scenario for the Sustainability of the Japanese Economy, February 2003
No. 35 Concerns for the Future and Generational Consumption Behavior, February 2003
No. 34 Prospects and Challenges Surrounding Japan’s Electrical Equipment Industry: General Electrical
Equipment Manufacturers’ Restructuring of Operations and Future Prospects, November 2002
No. 33 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2001, 2002 and 2003 (Conducted in August 2002),
November 2002
No. 32 Behavior Trends of Japanese Banks toward the Corporate Sector and Their Impact on the Economy,
October 2002
No. 31 Microstructure of Investment and Employment Dynamics: Stylized Facts of Factor Adjustment Basedon Listed Company Data, October 2002
No. 30 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Globalization and the Japanese Economy, August 2002
No. 29 Corporate Financing Trends in Recent Years: Fund Shortages and Repayment Burden, August 2002
No. 28 Urban Renewal and Resource Recycling: For the Creation of a Resource Recycling Society, July 2002

No. 27 Labor’s Share and the Adjustment of Wages and Employment, June 2002
No. 26 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2001 and 2002 (Conducted in February 2002),
May 2002
No. 25 Environmental Information Policy and Utilization of Information Technology: Toward a Shift in Environmental Policy Paradigm, March 2002
No. 24 The Changing Structure of Trade in Japan and Its Impact: With the Focus on Trade in Information
Technology (IT) Goods, March 2002
No. 23 Microstructure of persistent ROA decline in the Japanese corporate sector: Inter-company disparities
and investment strategies, March 2002
No. 22 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: The Japanese Economy under Deflation and Prospects ofEvolution, February 2002
No. 21 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2000, 2001 and 2002, December 2001
No. 20 Current Situation and Challenges for Cable Television in the Broadband Era, October 2001
No. 19 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: The Japanese Economy under Deflation, August 2001
No. 18 Introduction of a Home Appliance Recycling System: Effects & Prospects: Progress towards Utilisationof Recycling Infrastructure, June 2001
No. 17 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 2000 and 2001, June 2001
No. 16 Revitalization of Middle-aged and Elderly Workers in Japan’s Labor Markets: Requiring the Expansionof the Vocational Training Functions, March 2001
No. 15 Risk-Averting Portfolio Trends of Japanese Households, March 2001
No. 14 Consumption Demand Trends and the Structure of Supply: Focus on Retail Industry Supply Behavior,
March 2001
No. 13 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Weakness of Current Economic Recovery and Its Background,
March 2001
No. 12 Empirical Reassessment of Japanese Corporate Investment Behavior: Features and Changes since the1980s, based on Micro-level Panel Data, March 2001
No. 11 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1999, 2000 and 2001, October 2000
No. 10 Job Creation and Job Destruction in Japan, 1978-1998: An Empirical Analysis Based on EnterpriseData, September 2000
No. 9

Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Information Technology and the Economy, September 2000

No. 8

Trend of International Reorganization Affecting the Japanese Automobile and Auto Parts Industries,
June 2000

No. 7

Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1999 and 2000, June 2000

No. 6

Current Status and Future Perspective of the Japanese Remediation Industry: Technology and Market
for Underground Remediation, May 2000

No. 5

Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: The 1990s in Retrospect, March 2000

No. 4

Destabilized Consumption and the Post-bubble Consumer Environment, February 2000

No. 3

The Slump in Plant and Equipment Investment in the 1990s: Focusing on Lowered Expectations, theDebt Burden and Other Structural Factors, January 2000

No. 2

Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1998, 1999 and 2000, November 1999

No. 1

Corporate Strategies in Japan’s Semiconductor Industry: Implications of Development in Other AsianCountries, November 1999

JDB Research Report
No. 96 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Focused on Fixed Investment and Capital Stock, August 1999
No. 95 Efforts to Protect the Natural Environment in the United States and Germany: Environmental Mitigation and Biotope Conservation, July 1999
No. 94 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1998 and 1999, June 1999
No. 93 Towards the realization of ‘environmental partnership’: A survey of Japan’s environmental NPO sector
through comparison with Germany, June 1999
No. 92 The Impact of Demographic Changes on Consumption and Savings, March 1999
No. 91 Recent Research and Development Trends in Japanese Enterprises: Technology Fusion, March 1999
No. 90 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Prolonged Balance Sheet Adjustment, January 1999
No. 89 Impact of Asset Price Fluctuations on Household and Corporate Behavior: A Comparison between Japan and the U.S., December 1998
No. 88 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1997, 1998, and 1999, December 1998
No. 87 Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Changes in the Input-Output Structure, November 1998
No. 86 Structural Changes in Unemployment of Japan: An Approach from Labor Flow, November 1998
No. 85 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Characteristics of the Current Recession, August 1998
No. 84 R&D Stock and Trade Structure in Japan, August 1998
No. 83 Survey on Planned Capital Spending for Fiscal Years 1997 and 1998, August 1998
No. 82 The Significance, Potential, and Problems of DNA Analysis Research: Establishing Public Acceptanceis Essential, May 1998
No. 81 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1996, 1997 and1998 Conducted in August 1997, March 1998
No. 80 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Growth Base of the Japanese Economy, January 1998
No. 79 Information Appliances: The Strength of Japanese Companies and Tasks for the Future, January 1998
No. 78 Challenges and Outlook for the Japanese Machinery Industries: Impact of ISO14000 Series and Environmental Cost, January 1998
No. 77 Current Conditions and Issues of Computerization in the Health Care Industry: For the Construction of
a Health Care Information Network, January 1998
No. 76 Household Consumption and Saving in Japan, December 1997
No. 75 The Direction of Japanese Distribution System Reforms: Strengthening the Infrastructure to Support
Diverse Consumer Choices, November 1997
No. 74 Foreign Direct Investments by Japanese Manufacturing Industries and Their Effects on International
Trade, October 1997
No. 73 The Impact of the Changing Trade Structure on the Japanese Economy: With Special Focus on the Effects on Productivity and Employment, October 1997
No. 72 An Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Affiliates in Japan, August 1997
No. 71 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy: Stock Replacement and New Demand as Aspects of Economic Recovery, August 1997

No. 70 Corporate Fundraising: An International Comparison, June 1997
No. 69 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1996 and 1997
Conducted in February 1997, May 1997
No. 68 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1996 and 1997
Conducted in August 1996, August 1997
No. 67 An International Comparison of Corporate Investment Behavior: Empirical Analysis Using Firm Data
from Japan, France and the US, April 1997
No. 66 Housing in the National Capital: Analysis of the Market for Housing using Micro Data, March 1997
No. 65 The Environment for Locating Business Operations in Major East Asian Cities, January 1997
No. 64 Direction of Reconstruction of Business Strategy in the Chemical Industry, January 1997
No. 63 Reflection on Discussions Concerning Regulation of the Electric Power Industry: Deregulation of theElectric Power Industry in Japan and Implication of Experiences in the United States, December 1996
No. 62 Current Status and Future Perspective of the Japanese Semiconductor Industry, November 1996
No. 61 A Breakthrough for the Japanese Software Industry?: Responsiveness to Users’ Needs is the key, October 1996
No. 60 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy Focusing on the Characteristics and Sustainability of the Current Economic Recovery, September 1996
No. 59 Analysis of the Primary Causes and Economic Effects of Information: Related investment in the UnitedStates and Trends in Japan, August 1996
No. 58 Selected Summaries of Research Reports: Published in FY1995, June 1996
No. 57 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1995 and 1996
Conducted in February 1996, May 1996
No. 56 Recent Trends in the Japanese Economy, May 1996
No. 55 Issues Concerning the Competitiveness of the Japanese Steel Industry, February 1996
No. 54 Changes in the Financial Environment and the Real Economy, January 1996
No. 53 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1994, 1995 and1996 Conducted in August 1995, October 1995
No. 52 Current Economic Trends: Focusing on the Appreciation of the Yen and its Effects, October 1995
No. 51 Problems Concerning the International Competitiveness of the Petrochemical Industry, October 1995
No. 50 An Economic Approach to International Competitiveness, October 1995
No. 49 Selected Summaries of Research Reports Published in FY1994, July 1995
No. 48 Strategies for Improving the Efficiency of the Japanese Physical Distribution System: Part 2, July 1995
No. 47 Issues on International Competitive Strength of the Auto Industry, June 1995
No. 46 Problems Concerning the International Competitiveness of the Electronics and Electric Machinery Industry, June 1995
No. 45 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1994 and 1995
Conducted in March 1995, June 1995
No. 44 Strategies for Improving the Efficiency of the Japanese Physical Distribution System, March 1995
No. 43 Capital Spending Recovery Scenario Cycle and Structure, August 1994
No. 42 Progress of International Joint Development between Industrialized Countries on the Private Level,

May 1994
No. 41 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1993, 1994 and1995 Conducted in August 1994 , November 1994
No. 40 Selected Summaries of Research Reports Published in FY1993, June 1994
No. 39 Recent Trends in Japan’s Foreign Accounts, April 1994
No. 38 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1993 and 1994
Conducted in March 1994, April 1994
No. 37 Economic Zones and East Asia Prospect for Economic Activity Oriented Market Integration, December
1993
No. 36 Japanese Corporate Responses to Global Environmental Issues, December 1993
No. 35 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1992, 1993 and1994 Conducted in August 1993, September 1993
No. 34 Structure of Profit to Capital in the Manufacturing Industry, September 1993
No. 33 Comparison of the Japanese and The U.S. Labor Markets, October 1992
No. 32 The Relative Competitiveness of U.S., German, and Japanese Manufacturing, March 1993
No. 31 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993
Conducted in March 1993, April 1993
No. 30 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1991, 1992 and1993 Conducted in August 1992, December 1992
No. 29 Flow of Funds in the 80s and Future Corporate Finance in Japan, November 1992
No. 28 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1991 and 1992
Conducted in February 1992, April 1992
No. 27 An Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment in Japan, March 1992
No. 26 Projection of Japan's Trade Surplus in 1995: Analysis of Japan's Trade Structure in the 80s, February
1992
No. 25 Intra-Industry Trade and Dynamic Development of The World Economy, November 1991
No. 24 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1990, 1991 and1992 Conducted in August 1991, September 1991
No. 23 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991
Conducted in February 1991, March 1991
No. 22 Trends of the Petrochemical Industry and its Marketplace in East Asia, March 1991
No. 21 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1989, 1990 and1991 Conducted in August 1990, September 1990
No. 20 Deepening Economic Linkages in The Pacific Basin Region: Trade, Foreign Direct Investment andTechnology, September 1990
No. 19 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
Conducted in February 1990, March 1990
No. 18 Petrochemicals in Japan, The US, and Korea an Assessment of Economic Efficiency, February 1990
No. 17 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1988, 1989 and1990 Conducted in August 1989, October 1989
No. 16 Impact of the EC Unification on Japan’s Automobile and Electronics Industries, August 1989

No. 15 Industrial and Trade Structures and the International Competitiveness of Asia’s Newly Industrializing
Economies, August 1989
No. 14 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Investment Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1988
and 1989 Conducted in February 1989, March 1989
No. 13 The Japan Development Bank Reports on Capital Spending: Survey for Fiscal Years 1987, 1988 and1989 Conducted in August 1988, September 1988
No. 12 Growing Foreign Investors’ Activities and the Future of Internationalization, September 1988
No. 11 Futures Tasks and Prospects for the Japanese Machine-Tool Industry, July 1988
No. 10 International Division of Labor in the Machine Industries Among Japan, Asia’s NICs and ASEANCountries, June 1988
No. 9

Trends of the Petrochemical Industry and its Marketplace in East Asia around Japan, May 1988

No. 8

The International Competitiveness of Japan and U.S. in High Technology Industries, April 1988

No. 7

The Japan Development Bank Reports on Private Fixed Investment in Japan, March 1988

No. 6

Economic Projections of the Japan’s Economy to the Year 2000, February 1988

No. 5

The Japan Development Bank Reports on Private Fixed Investment in Japan, September 1987

No. 4

Current Trends in the Japanese Auto Parts Industry in Overseas Production, July 1987

No. 3

Current Moves for Foreign Direct Investment into Japan, May 1987

No. 2

Overseas Direct Investments by Japanese Corporations, May 1987

No. 1

Current U.S. Consumption Trends, May 1987