Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions:
エネルギー転換を支える電力網
Enhancing the foundations of resilient, sustainable and affordable power systems
Pablo Hevia-Koch, Head of Renewables Integration and Secure Electricity Unit
IEEJ Webinar
22 November 2023
Page 1

The nature of electricity systems is changing
電力システムの変化
Electricity demandWind and solar PV share of electricity supply
60%

60 000
TWh

50%
40%

40 00030%
20 000

20%
10%
2030
2022

0%

2030
2022

Traditional demand
Electric vehicles
Hydrogen production

2050

2030
2022

2040

2030
2022

2030

2030
2022

2020

2030
202202010

EUUSChina

India Japan WorldElectricity is the beating heart of modern economies and demand is set to grow fast, with new demand types growing,
while wind and solar PV are re-shaping electricity supply and are set to be 80% of new capacity additions
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 2

Grids are becoming a bottleneck for energy transitions
送電網がエネルギー転換のボトルネックになりつつある
Capacity of advanced stage projects in queues

Capacity of renewable energy projects in connection queues
GW 2 000
1 800

GW

1 600

2 000

1 500

1 400
1 200
1 000

1 000

800600500

4002000Solar PVWind

Advanced stage

BioenergyHydro

Early stage/unlikely0

Advanced stage projects
United StatesEuropeJapanOthers

We estimate at least 1500 GW are wind and solar projects around the world are in an advanced stage of development.
While investment in renewables has almost doubled in the last decade, investment in grids has remained stagnant.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 3More variable renewable energy connection results in curtailment
変動型再生可能エネルギー接続の拡大と出力制御
Variable renewable energy(VRE) shares in generation and technical curtailment for selected countries

Source: Renewable Energy Market Update - June 2023 (IEA)

This trend is particularly evident in areas where major grid infrastructure investments
and/or advanced market design and regulation are not keeping pace with VRE deployment.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 4

Grid development needs to accelerate to keep up with transitions
エネルギー転換にあわせた系統整備の加速化が必要
Grid development in the Announced Pledges Scenario
Grid investment

Grid lengths
Billion USD

Million km

80
70
60

800

600

50
40

Renewables

Gap toAPS

4003020At recent
growth rate

200

1002001-2021

2022-2040

Expansion

Replacements

02022

2030

Over the next two decades, 80 million km need to be added or replaced, as much as the global grid length today,
calling for grid investment to double by 2030, in step with renewables, raising material needs.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 5

Long lead times for grids call for advanced planning
系統整備のリードタイムを考慮した計画が求められる
Decision timelines to complete typical projects by 2035
Advanced
economies

Extra-high voltage transmission
High voltage transmission

India

Distribution line

ChinaWind
Solar PVEV charging
2023

2030

2035

Electricity grid development is complex, involves many stakeholders and can take many years,
requiring decisions well in advance to support electrification and renewables that can be deployed more quickly
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 6

Clean energy transitions depend on robust electricity grids
クリーンエネルギー転換は強固な電力網によって支えられる
Impacts of failing to accelerate grid investment and modernisation
70%

Solar PV and wind shareof electricity generation

60%

APS

50%
40%
30%

Change in electricity generationfrom 2020 to 2050
40%
20%

Gt

16
14
120%

10

Grid Delay-20%
Case

86-40%

20%

410%

-60%

20%

-80%

02010

2030

2050

Power sector
CO2 emissions

CoalNatural gas

2010

2030

2050

Failing to step up the pace of grid investment and modernisation would stifle the growth of renewables,
and lead to greater use of coal and natural gas, raising fossil fuel import bills by USD 500 billion and CO2 emissions
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 7

What does this mean for Japan?
日本に対する含意は？

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 8

TWhEnergy transitions rely on electrification and renewable energy
エネルギー転換には電化の進展と再生可能エネルギーが必要
Total power generation and share of electricity
1 600
100%

1 600

1 4001 40080%

1 200
1 00060%

800
40%

600
40020002010

2022

2030

2050

Renewable generation

80%

1 200
1 00060%

800
40%

600

20%

4000%

020%

200
2010

2022

2030

APSElectricity generation

Share of Electricity

100%

2050

0%

APS
Renewables generation

Share of VRE

Source: World Energy Outlook 2023 (IEA)

Share of the electricity demand in final consumption is set to increase.
Additionally, there is a need to significantly expand renewable energy in order to decarbonise power sources.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 9Growing regional challenges on curtailment
各地域での増加する出力制御の課題が長期的な課題に
0%

10%

Curtailment rate
20%
30%

40%

Hokkaido

50%Master planTohoku
TokyoChubu

2021

Hokuriku
Kansai
Chugoku
Shikoku

Curtailment
rate (2023projected)

KyushuOkinawa
0204060
Variable Renewable Capacity (GW)80

Curtailment is already an issue in regions where the deployment of renewable energy is progressing.
The regions where wind and solar power generation are expected to develop flexibility of these sources and grids.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 10

Japan’s transmission investment planning is more than the APS scenario
日本の送電網への投資計画はAPSシナリオを上回る水準
Investment in transmission

8Billion USD

Billion USD

Periodical average annual investment in grids

66050403042021000Masterplan

Note: the amount of estimated investment is 6-7 trillion JPY.

Distribution

Transmission

The revised wheeling charges for 2023-2027 and the Master plan prepared by OCCTO
are expected to accelerate the Japanese energy transition.
IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 11

A call to action
求められるアクションBring planning up to date – Strategic and integrated planning across sectors



Unlock investment – Improve how grid companies are remunerated

Address barriers – Regulatory overhaul towards proactive grid development

Secure supply chains – Firm & transparent project pipelines to enable resilient supply chains

Leverage digitalisation – Digitalise infrastructure and advance distributed resources

Build a skilled workforce – Create a pool of talent with digital and electricity skills

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 12IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 13

Backup slides

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 14

Special report launched this morning 17th October• Importance of electricity grids is growing as demandfor clean electricity grows• There are signs that they are not keeping pace with
development of demand and renewables• The special report examines:- Stocktake of the world’s grids as they standnow- Risks of them becoming a bottleneck for
efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions
and ensure electricity security.
- Upgrades required to physical infrastructure
and the way they are planned and managed- Costs of delayed action- Key recommendations for policy makers,
highlighting what is necessary in areas suchas investment, regulation and planning.

IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0.

Page 15