Comments:
JTTRI seminar
Global Aviation in the post-pandemic world
29 June 2023
Hiroshi Ohashi
U TokyoFuture Transport Research Initiatives(Oum, 2023)
I. how transport network responds to changing
supply sources (partly due to Ukraine war andUS-China great tension)
II. policy interventions to airline bailouts
III. market structure in the post-pandemic regime
IV.transport sector and climate change
Need a global platform for policy making
and technology certification
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1. Evaluating demand
Tourism - A driving force• Tourism holds substantial potential as a driving force forfuture economic growth in Japan. It is essential to recognize
the interplay between air travel and tourism demand incapitalizing on this opportunity of regional GDP and wagegrowth.
– In academic context, spatial equilibrium model would be aninteresting avenue to reveal the impact of air transport.

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REF

Travel & Tourism Development Index 2021 (WEF)

42. Supply Dynamics
Providing Values in the Post-Pandemic Era• In a world increasingly relying on virtual and online interactions, theaviation industry must strive to provide added value to passenger
experiences.
• This could include enhanced inflight services, personalized travel
options, or seamless and entertaining airport experiences.

Consolidation and Alliances: Balancing Competitiveness• Presumably, we may witness more industry consolidation andformation of alliances in the future.
• These strategic moves could aim to reduce operational costs andimprove service quality.
• On the other hand, we must evaluate whether such strategies would
result in any loss of competitiveness in the market.
53-1. market environments• Effects of personnel shortage in pilots and mechanics– Shortage of pilots and mechanics is an ongoing challenge in the industry.
– This shortage could lead to delays and operational inefficiencies.

• Accelerating towards Automation and AI– The industry is increasingly embracing automation and AI to overcome
personnel shortages and increase efficiency (ref. Osaka Expo 2025)– AI-driven systems are being used for tasks ranging from baggage handling topredictive maintenance, face and iris recognitions.

• Value of resilience and economic security in infrastructure– The resilience of airports and aviation infrastructure is vital for economicsecurity.
– Airports, as part of national infrastructure, play a key role in maintaining
economic stability and security.

• Effects of E-commerce and Logistics– The growth of e-commerce has driven an increase in air cargo demand.

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3-2. Corroborating towards Decarbonization
Analyzing the Efficiency of Sector-Specific Decarbonization• In our shared endeavor to tackle global warming, it's crucial to examine theeffectiveness of decarbonization strategies that are tailored to specificsector. How much significant impact could the targeted initiatives in theaviation sector make on our worldwide carbon reduction goals?
Understanding Effective Carbon Pricing• A key aspect of this examination is to understand effective carbon prices.
This understanding gives us insight into the economic implications of thesestrategies and how they could potentially deter carbon-heavy activities
across industries.
World CO2 Emission and the share of international flights (2019)
China (1)

USA

28.3%

01020(1) Hong Kong not included

EU India

14.5%

30

9.8%
4050

Int’l flights 1.8%

Other countries

6.6%

28.8%

6070

4.7%

3.4%

Russia Japan

8090100 (%)

Int’l sea freights
2.1%

3-3. Policy Aid
Balancing Government Aid and Corporate Autonomy• In the context of the pandemic, there hasn't been comparable large-scale
support for the aviation sector in Japan like in some foreign countries.
–This may be due to a prevalent belief that government intervention impingeon corporate autonomy.

• As network shrinking and LCC on the verge of bankruptcy, it is interesting
to ask how government assistance could help facilitate a transition back tonormal compared with scenarios without it.
Financial Support for Airports• Government loans to airports is another significant aspect of policy aid,
playing a vital role in maintaining airport operations amidst the crisis andnatural disaster.
• It is also said the role of airport extends beyond operational resilience,
contributing significantly to the economic security of a region or nation.
– Interesting to ask the interplay of resilience and security with airports.

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Future Transport Research Initiatives, again(Oum, 2023)
I. how transport network responds to changing
supply sources (partly due to Ukraine war andUS-China great tension)
II. policy interventions to airline bailouts
III. market structure in the post-pandemic regime
IV.transport sector and climate change
Need a global platform for policy making andtechnology certification

andassume a lead role!

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