IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Transport Future Workshop
2nd Workshop for Automobile and Energy

Outlook for Energy and Transport
Demand in the Road Sector

March 29, 2012
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
Shigeru SUEHIRO1IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

BackgroundWe are faced with some problems related to energy, such as
high prices, resources and climate change.
Rapid motorization in developing countries will increase oil
demand and CO2 emission. Therefore, analyses anddiscussions with regard to automobiles will become more andmore important.

We developed a simulation model “IEEJ2050 Model” for worldenergy demand in 2050, focusing on the transport / automobile
sector in order to analyze scenarios surrounding motorization.

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Structure of “IEEJ2050 Model”[Output] World Energy Demand and Energy-related CO2 Emission[Prediction period] Between 2010 and 2050 (every 5 years)[Geographic division] 16 countries/regions[Model Structure](A) Final Energy Consumption (Industry, Residential & Commercial, and Transport sectors)(B) Energy Conversion (Power generation, Heat supply, Hydrogen, etc.)(C) Total Primary Energy Supply and CO2 Emission
There is also a transport sub-model for detailed analysis in the road sector.
RegionClassification in the modelNorth America

1) USA, 2) CanadaLatin America

3) Brazil, 4) other Latin American countries

Europe5) European OECD countries, 6) Russia, 7) other European countries

Asia and Pacific8) Japan, 9) China, 10) India, 11) Korea, 12) ASEAN, 13) Oceania, 14) otherAsian countries

Middle East

15) Middle East

Africa16) Africa

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Structure of Transport Sub-model[Model Structure] Passenger sector: Passenger cars, Buses, Bikes, Railways, Ships, Airlines
Freight sector: Trucks, Railways, Ships, Airlines[Car and Truck] Flow-Stock replacement structure(sales) technology share / fuel efficiency >>> (stock) technology share / fuel efficiency
Technology type by power source
Fuel typeInternal Combustion
Engine Vehicle[ICEV]ICE & Motor

Motor

Hybrid Electric Vehicle [HEV]Zero Emission Vehicle [ZEV]

Gasoline

1) Gasoline-engine Vehicle5) Gasoline-powered HybridVehicle
6) Plug-in Gasoline-powered
Hybrid Vehicle(*also using electricity)

Diesel2) Diesel-engine Vehicle7) Diesel-powered HybridVehicle

LPG3) LPG-powered Vehicle

CNG4) CNG-powered Vehicle

Electricity8) Electric Vehicle

Hydrogen9) Fuel Cell Vehicle
10) Plug-in Fuel Cell Vehicle(*also using electricity)

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Major Assumptions for 2050
10

【 Population】

bil.persons

140

tril.$(2oooprice)【 Real GDP (MER base) 】
non-OECD:Others

120

8

non-OECD 100:Others80

6non-OECD:ASIA

non-OECD 60:ASIA40

42OECD020002010

2020

1,000 $/toe(2010price)

2030

2040

【Fuel Prices】
Oil($120/b)

800

NG-JPN

600($797/tLNG

NG-EU400)

NG-USA200

Coal($104/t)

0
2000

2010

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2020

2030

2040

2050

200
2000

2050

OECD

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

- World population increase to 9 billion in2050, or 1.4 times the 2005 level.
Developing countries contribute most tothe increase.
- World economy is growing by 2.8%/yr.
Asia is maintaining high growth of 5.0%.
- Oil price is assumed at 120USD/barrel
in 2050, while the gas price is 800USD/tLNG.
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Outlook for World Energy Demand【 TPES by region】

Gtoe

25

25

Gtoe

【TPES by fuel type】
Renewables

Intl.Air&20
Bunker
non-OECD 15:Others

20
15

NuclearNG

non-OECD 10:ASIA5OECD

10502000

60

GtCO2

2010

2020

2030

2040

Coal

02000

2050

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

We assume present technological systems
and energy policies in “Reference Case”【Energy-related CO2 emission by sector】- TPES increase by 1.9 times that of 2005.

50
40

Generation,etc.
Transport
ation
House,Building, etc.
Industry30
201002000

Oil2010All Rights Reserved IEEJ

2020

2030

2040

2050

Industry: x1.8, Transport: x2.0, Res.& com.: x2.0

- Oil: x1.5, Coal: x1.8, Gas: x2.4
Fossil fuel share remains high (83%).
- CO2 emission of 51 billion tons in 2050,
or 1.8 times that of 2005.
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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Passenger/Freight Demand100

tril.pkm【 Passenger demand by mode 】
Air
Water

80

Rail
Bike

60

Bus

40

Car

20

by 2.7 times that of 2005.
(4.4 times in Asia)
Rail: x4.4, Air: x3.4, Car: x2.4
Share of Car will be 44％ in 2050.

02000

70

- Passenger demand increase2010

tril.tkm

2020

2030

2040

2050

【Freight demand by mode】

Air

60

Water50
Rail40

Truck

30
20

Truck: x3.0, Truck share: 51%

100
2000

- Freight demand increaseby 2.7 times that of 2005.
(4.4 times in Asia)

2010

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2020

2030

2040

2050

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Automobile Stocks
2.5

bil.unit 【 Automobile stocks(excl.bykes) by region 】- Automobile stocks increase
non-OECD:Others

2.0
1.5

non-OECD:ASIA

1.0[2005][2050]

More than 80% of the increase iscontributed by developing countries.

OECD

0.50.02000- Cars: 0.7 bil. to 2.1 bil. (x2.8)
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Bus:

Automobile ownership rate
1,000

from 0.9 bil. to 2.4 bil. units (x2.8).

Ownership rate
(unit/thou.persons)

Oceania

BrazilKorea

Russia10 mil. to 30 mil. (x2.2)

USA

Truck: 0.1 bil. to 0.3 bil. (x2.4)

Japan

Bike:

0.3 bil. to 0.9 bil. (x3.1)

Canada100- Ownership rate in OECD:

European OECDother EuropeanMiddle East

ASEAN

other Latin American

586 to 721 units / 1,000 persons

Africa10- In non-OECD: 48→204 units

1This is one-fourth the OECD level,
so there is much room for increase
after 2050.

ChinaIndia

GDP per Capita(thou.$/person)［ 2000→2050］

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Stocks / Sales of Automobiles
2.5bil.unit【Car & Truck stocks by region】
World

2.0

- Automobile stocks in Asia increase
from 0.2 bil. to 1.1 bil. units (6.0 times).
[2005][2050]In Japan, automobiles decrease.

1.5
ASIA

1.0

(76 mil. to 62 mil. units)

0.5
Japan
0.0
200016020102020

2030

2040

2050

【Car & Truck sales by region】

mil.unit

140World

120
10080

ASIA

604020Japan

02000

2010

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2020

2030

2040

- World automobile sales increase
from 64 mil. to 150 mil. Units (2.3 times).
In Asia
17 mil. to 74 mil.(4.4 times)
In Japan
5.9 mil. to 4.3 mil (decrease)

2050

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Share of Automobiles【Share of Car & Truck Sales by type】
100%

HFCPHEV
HFCV

80%

ZEV

EV
GICEPHEV60%

DICEHEVHEVGICEHEV40%- Sales share of automobiles (2050)
World) ICEV: 59％, HEV: 39％Asia) ICEV: 60％, HEV: 38％
Japan) ICEV: 54％, HEV: 43％

CNGV
LPGV

20%

DICEV

ICEV

GICEV

0%
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
W o r ldAsiaJapan【Share of Car & Truck Stocks by type】
100%

HFCPHEV- Stock share of automobiles (2050)
EVWorld) ICEV: 65％, HEV: 34％
GICEPHEVHEVDICEHEV
Asia) ICEV: 66％, HEV: 33％
GICEHEV
Japan) ICEV: 59％, HEV: 40％
CNGV
HFCV

80%
60%
40%

LPGV
20%

DICEV
GICEV

0%
2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 1 0 2 03 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 5 0
W o r ld

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AsiaJapanZEV

ICEV
GICEV: Gasoline-engine Vehicle, DICEV: Diesel-engine Vehicle, LPGV: LPGpowered Vehicle, CNGV: CNG-powered Vehicle
GICEHEV: Gasoline-powered Hybrid Vehicle, DICEHEV: Diesel-powered HybridVehicle, GICEPHEV: Plug-in Gasoline-powered Hybrid Vehicle
EV: Electric Vehicle, HFCV: Fuel Cell Vehicle, HFCPHEV: Plug-in Fuel CellVehicle

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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Energy Demand in Transport Sector
4.54.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Gtoe

ASIAJapan
2000

12- World energy demand in the transport
sector increases by 2.0 times that of 2005.
World（Asia: x3.7, Japan: x0.6）【Energy in Transport sector】

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

GtCO2 【CO2 emmision in Transport sector】
Intl.Air&Bunker
PipeLine
Domestic Air
Domest. Water
Rail
Truck
Byke
RoadBus
Car

1086
420
2000

2010

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2020

2030

2040

2050

- CO2 emission in transport increases by1.8 times that of 2005(*including CO2 in the generation sector)

CO2 share of the road sector decreases
from 71％ (2005) to 61％ (2050).
Share of international air & bunker
increases from 15％ to 22％.
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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Transport Demand in Japan
tril.pkm 【 Passenger demand by mode 】

1.4

0.7

1.2

tril.tkm【Freight demand by mode】

0.6

1.0

Air

0.8

Water

0.6

Rail
Bike

0.4
0.2
0.0
2000

80

2010

mil.unit

2020

2030

2040

Water

Bus

0.2

RailCar

0.1
0.0
2000

【Automobile stocks(excl.bykes) 】

7060
Truck40
Bus30
20

Car

1002000

2010

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2020

2030

2040

2050

Air0.40.3

2050

500.5

Truck
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

- Passenger demand decreases
by 26% from 2005.
- Freight demand decreases
by 12% from 2005.
- Automobile stocks：
Car: 57 mil. to 48 mil. units
Truck: 18 mil. to 14 mil. units
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IEEJ: April 2012 All Right Reserved

Energy Demand in Transport in Japan
Mtoe 【Energy demand in Transport sector】

100
90
80
7060
50
40
30
20
100
2000300

2010

2020

2030

2040

Bio-diesel
Bio-ethanol
Hydorogen
Electricity
CNG
LPG
Heavy fuelJet fuel Oil
DieselGasoline

250
Domestic Air
Domest. Water
Rail
Truck
BykeRoadBusCar

200
150
10050
2010

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2020

2030

2040

Oil share in transport sector
decreases from 98％ to 84％,
but oil remains dominant.

2050

MtCO2 【CO2 emmision in Transport sector】

02000- Japan’s energy demand in transport(excl. international air & bunker)
decreases by 38% from 2005.

- CO2 emission in transport sector(excl. international air & bunker)
decreases by 41％ from 2005.
(*including CO2 in the generation sector)

CO2 in road sector
decreases by 45%

2050

13

IEEJ: April 2012 All Right ReservedSummary- World transport demand (passenger/freight) will increase greatly.
- World transport demand increases by 3 times that of 2005. （4 times in Asia)- World automobile stocks increases from 0.9 bil. to 2.4 bil. units.
（0.2 bil. to 1.1bil. units in Asia）- Energy demand and CO2 emission in transport will also increase greatly.
- Energy demand and CO2 increase by 2.0 times that of 2005.（3 times in Asia）
CO2 in road sector increases by 1.5 times.
CO2 in international air & bunker increases by 2.8 times.
- On the other hand, transport /energy demand in Japan will decrease.
- Transport demand: -20% from 2005, Automobile: 75mil. to 62mil. units- Energy and CO2 decrease by 40% from 2005, respectively.
We predict transport demand to increase rapidly in emerging countries,
especially Asian countries. More detailed analyses concerning themotorization scenario in Asia are necessary.
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14Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp