TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for June 2020)

Economic plunge has come to an end～ Still remains at a severe level,although economic activities are gradually resuming ～e-mail：keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp（Companies researched: 23,681; Valid responses: 11,275; Response rate: 47.6%;
Survey start date: May 2002)

By industry : The economy is picking up in nine industries in reaction to
the state of emergency declaration being lifted.

< Overview of June 2020: Recession phase >The economic diffusion index (DI) in June 2020 was 27.6. The downturn inthe domestic economy bottomed out in June since economic activities started
moving again. The domestic economy has stopped its plunge since economic
activities gradually started to move.

By size : The deteriorating trend has stopped in all sizes. Emergency
economic measures show the effect.
By region : The economy bottomed out in all ten regions, with a sense of
expectation due to the removal of restrictions on movement.

< Future outlook: Temporarily ceasing to fall >Although the recessionary trend has temporarily stopped, weak economic
fluctuations are expected to continue.

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6

42.5 41.9

38.7
32.1 34.1

32.5
25.8 25.2 27.6

28.6 29.3 29.1 27.8

26.4 26.4 27.0 27.7

28.5 29.5
After 1 year

After 1 month

After 3 months
After 6 months（Prediction→）
Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2019
2020
2021
Projected future DI
45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6 28.6 29.3 29.1 27.8 26.4 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.5 29.5 32.1 34.1
Change from June.2020
1.0 1.7 1.5 0.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.9 1.9 4.5 6.5*: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model.

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research June 2020

1

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2
Ratio to tHN
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

PrFDious
Month

Total

45.4 45.1 44.6 44.7 45.0 43.9 43.6 42.5 41.9 38.7 32.5 25.8 25.2 27.6

2.4

Large Firms

48.8 48.7 47.7 47.9 48.0 47.1 47.0 45.7 45.3 42.0 34.8 28.2 28.1 30.1

2.0

Small to Medium-sized Firms

44.6 44.2 43.9 43.9 44.2 43.2 42.8 41.7 41.1 38.0 32.0 25.3 24.6 27.0

2.4

Micro Firms

44.5 44.1 43.8 44.2 45.1 43.9 43.5 42.1 41.4 38.8 32.3 25.4 24.6 27.8

3.2

Ratio to tHN
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

PrFDious
Month

Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

40.5 43.2 39.1 41.5 41.8 42.3 42.5 41.7 38.4 37.9 32.8 28.2 25.1 29.6

4.5

Finance44.7 44.8 45.1 44.7 45.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 44.8 42.2 33.3 27.3 28.7 32.4

3.7

Construction

51.7 51.6 51.7 52.1 53.1 52.1 52.2 51.6 50.0 47.8 41.5 33.9 33.5 36.3

2.8

Real Estate

47.6 48.3 47.4 46.5 48.0 45.9 46.0 44.2 45.9 42.0 31.6 21.9 23.5 29.2

5.7

Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed41.3 40.3 40.4 41.1 39.8 39.1 39.7 39.9 38.0 34.5 28.4 24.8 24.6 27.2

2.6

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.6 36.5 36.4 36.9 36.3 36.1 34.6 32.6 30.5 29.3 23.2 16.7 17.7 17.9

0.2

Construction Materials,Furniture,

Manufacturing

Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

45.4 43.5 43.8 45.2 44.1 44.8 43.8 40.2 39.9 37.2 33.4 29.2 26.5 28.1

1.6

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

43.0 41.7 39.6 42.3 42.8 40.2 41.7 40.6 37.3 32.0 29.2 24.0 21.4 19.3

▲ 2.1

Publishing,Printing

34.3 33.9 32.5 33.1 34.1 33.0 32.7 32.9 30.9 29.7 23.1 16.8 14.4 16.0

1.6

Chemical

43.9 42.5 41.9 41.8 41.0 41.2 40.6 40.1 39.0 35.8 32.1 27.5 25.3 25.9

0.6

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

42.9 41.8 41.5 41.2 40.4 39.8 38.1 37.6 36.3 32.9 29.0 23.6 21.5 20.8

▲ 0.7

General Machinery

46.0 45.1 44.0 41.5 41.1 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.3 35.4 31.1 25.3 23.6 23.5

▲ 0.1

Electrical Machinery

43.1 43.0 42.8 43.9 41.2 42.2 40.5 40.4 41.0 38.5 32.7 27.6 26.1 27.0

0.9Transportation Machinery,Equipment

48.1 47.5 46.4 43.4 42.3 43.5 41.2 40.9 39.4 36.5 34.2 22.2 18.2 18.1

▲ 0.1

Precision Machinery,
Medical Instruments and Equipment

44.4 42.4 43.9 43.4 42.0 41.3 42.0 39.9 40.4 39.0 34.8 27.2 26.3 28.6

2.3

Other

40.2 40.2 38.0 40.7 41.8 37.4 38.4 38.0 36.9 36.8 31.1 20.7 19.8 23.9

4.1

Total

42.9 42.0 41.5 41.4 40.6 40.3 39.6 38.6 37.6 34.9 30.3 24.7 23.0 23.6

0.6

Food,BEWerages

40.8 40.4 38.8 39.0 38.8 38.1 37.9 37.4 37.3 33.1 25.6 21.3 21.0 24.5

3.5

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

33.2 31.6 29.8 30.8 31.6 28.8 28.8 26.5 26.2 22.0 16.4 10.3 11.4 15.8

4.4

44.7 43.8 44.7 44.6 46.0 45.1 43.4 43.1 42.8 38.5 34.4 27.9 27.7 29.6

1.9

Paper Products,Stationery,Books

39.0 36.4 37.0 37.1 38.0 37.7 36.3 35.0 34.9 33.5 27.5 22.0 19.1 19.0

▲ 0.1

Chemical41.8 41.2 42.7 42.0 42.7 41.0 40.4 39.0 38.7 35.5 33.2 28.9 27.4 27.6

0.2

Recycled Resources

40.2 37.1 32.8 32.8 30.6 34.8 29.0 33.3 30.8 27.1 21.2 18.7 18.8 23.8

5.0

40.8 40.4 39.0 38.8 37.6 38.0 37.0 34.8 33.9 31.9 27.8 23.2 22.8 24.0

1.2

Construction Materials,
Furniture,Ceramics,
Stone and Clay Products

Wholesale.

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,
Mining Products
Machinery,Equipment

44.2 44.4 43.8 43.3 44.6 42.7 42.3 41.7 41.2 38.2 33.0 25.9 25.1 27.4

2.3

Other

40.6 40.6 40.2 40.2 40.7 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 31.5 26.5 21.4 19.8 23.1

3.3

41.9 41.4 41.0 40.8 41.4 39.9 39.3 38.4 37.9 34.4 29.4 23.7 23.0 25.3

2.3

Total

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research June 2020

2

Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2
Ratio to tHN
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

PrFDious
MonthRetailFood,BEWerages

44.8 42.9 41.5 41.3 41.8 40.5 40.2 38.4 39.1 36.7 25.8 26.3 27.4 30.8

3.4

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

36.9 36.6 34.6 36.5 37.9 32.7 31.5 28.7 28.0 24.2 16.2 11.4

14.8

23.6

Drugs,Sundries

41.0 38.5 40.0 37.7 40.6 35.8 37.3 40.2 37.7 34.7 27.5 28.7 25.3 32.7

7.4

Furniture

39.6 48.5 40.9 45.0 53.0 33.3 26.9 31.8 31.9 29.2 22.6 10.8 15.5 31.7

16.2

Information Machinery and Equipment

39.1 43.5 34.3 38.9 45.0 34.3 32.3 38.1 38.2 36.0 28.4 19.3 21.9 33.8

11.9

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

41.5 42.5 39.2 41.1 41.4 34.5 31.4 31.9 36.7 32.9 27.9 17.0 15.8 25.4

9.6

Special Merchandise

41.3 41.1 40.6 40.7 43.5 38.2 39.1 36.0 35.2 34.7 27.4 20.2 19.9 27.7

7.8

Various Merchandise

43.8 44.7 39.3 38.9 43.1 36.5 36.5 36.2 37.4 34.4 29.3 32.3 29.9 34.5

4.6

Electrical Household Appliances,

Other
Total

Transportation,Warehousing

Service8.8

39.6 46.3 41.7 41.7 40.5 48.1 40.7 47.9 48.1 43.9 31.8 26.9 30.6 31.8

1.2

41.6 42.0 39.5 40.2 42.6 37.0 36.1 35.8 36.3 34.1 26.7 21.2 21.1 29.1

8.0

46.7 45.6 44.5 45.5 46.0 44.9 45.1 42.6 39.5 34.0 27.7 22.4 22.7 21.5

▲ 1.2

Restaurants

40.6 42.9 39.6 38.1 43.6 37.3 39.4 40.7 41.0 32.3 14.2

13.8

8.3

Postal,Telecommunications

56.7 60.0 58.3 60.6 56.9 56.1 59.5 52.8 64.6 57.1 50.0 30.3 33.3 43.3

10.0

4.3

5.5

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

55.6 54.5 54.2 52.6 51.3 51.2 52.2 47.4 52.4 46.7 40.5 28.4 32.4 34.4

2.0

Leasing,Rentals

50.9 52.5 51.8 51.7 53.5 54.5 53.1 50.4 50.8 46.9 34.0 27.8 29.1 30.2

1.1

Lodging, Hotels

50.0 44.9 40.3 39.9 47.2 41.3 42.0 39.1 38.5 23.2

7.0

1.5

2.9

4.8

1.9

Recreation

42.0 41.5 41.8 40.9 38.7 38.2 40.7 37.5 39.4 35.7 17.0

5.6

9.3

11.5

2.2

Broadcasting

44.1 43.3 41.1 45.2 43.1 42.9 41.7 38.2 38.1 38.9 29.8 22.9 22.5 26.7

4.2

Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

48.2 48.8 49.3 49.8 48.6 49.1 47.3 46.6 46.4 42.6 36.0 27.5 26.6 29.9

3.3

Advertising40.5 40.7 40.4 38.9 40.3 40.4 39.6 37.8 40.0 34.1 21.3 11.3 10.7 14.3

3.6

Information

58.0 57.8 58.5 58.7 57.7 57.4 57.8 56.2 56.5 54.2 43.9 33.7 34.0 35.8

1.8

Labor Dispatching

53.9 52.8 52.7 51.0 53.2 53.3 50.9 46.2 49.2 42.5 34.1 21.0 20.0 25.3

5.3

Special Services

49.5 50.1 49.9 51.1 51.8 51.5 50.8 49.9 50.3 45.8 40.4 31.4 32.2 35.0

2.8

Medical,Welfare,Public Health47.8 47.0 48.7 46.5 47.3 46.5 48.5 47.7 47.8 43.2 35.9 26.4 26.1 30.5

4.4

Education

43.6 44.0 41.1 39.5 40.0 42.4 37.8 43.1 41.4 40.0 29.7 13.9 18.8 28.0

9.2

Other

47.9 48.5 47.9 48.3 48.4 47.9 47.9 45.6 46.2 39.8 29.2 21.2 21.8 26.6

4.8

50.6 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.0 50.6 50.4 48.8 49.5 45.1 35.3 25.8 26.1 29.4

3.3

43.2 42.6 44.1 43.2 42.1 43.1 40.4 41.7 42.7 39.2 29.8 24.4 26.2 27.1

0.9

Total

Other

Ratio to tHN
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

PrFDiousMonthHokkaido

45.3 45.1 45.7 46.4 46.6 45.7 45.0 43.8 42.4 39.0 31.0 28.4 27.5 30.6

3.1

Tohoku42.2 41.9 41.7 41.7 43.2 41.9 42.2 40.9 38.8 36.7 30.7 26.0 25.3 28.5

3.2

kitakanto

43.1 42.5 42.5 42.6 42.2 40.9 40.0 40.0 39.4 36.9 31.8 25.8 24.5 26.2

1.7

minamikanto

46.0 46.0 45.5 45.7 46.1 45.5 45.5 44.3 44.5 41.1 34.1 26.3 25.5 28.4

2.9

Hokuriku

44.6 44.2 43.5 44.1 43.5 42.1 40.4 39.5 37.6 35.6 29.7 24.9 25.1 26.5

1.4

Tokai

46.8 45.8 44.7 45.0 45.2 43.6 42.7 41.8 40.6 37.3 31.4 23.7 23.4 25.3

1.9

Kinki

45.0 44.6 44.0 43.8 43.9 42.2 41.9 40.5 39.8 36.3 30.4 23.9 23.8 25.9

2.1

Chugoku45.6 45.5 45.0 44.8 45.0 44.0 43.6 42.6 41.2 39.0 33.8 27.0 25.7 27.2

1.5

Shikoku46.7 44.8 43.1 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.0 43.8 42.7 39.5 36.4 30.8 28.5 30.3

1.8

Kyushu46.9 47.0 47.6 46.3 47.1 46.5 46.8 45.1 45.2 41.5 35.3 27.5 27.4 29.7

2.3

©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

TDB Trends Research June 20203

Appendix
1.Research Subjects(Companies researched: 23,681; Valid
responses: 11,275; Response rate: 47.6%)
Appendix

1.Region
Hokkaido
TohokukitaKantominamikanto
Hokuriku

563
773
871
3,489
626

Kyushu

1,278
1,853
654
336
832

Total

11,275

Tokai

Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku

2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business)
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries

62

Finance130

Construction

1,845

Real Estate

369

Manufacturing（3,108）Wholesale（2,961）Retail（458）

Food,Beverages

73

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

29

Drugs,Sundries

25

Furniture

10

Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment

40

Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed

372

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

120

Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products

237

Special Merchandise142

Pulp, Paper and Paper Products

109

Various Merchandise

42

Publishing,Printing

189

OthersChemical

441

Transportation,Warehousing

490

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining

537

Restaurants

59

General Machinery

487

Telecommunications

10

Electrical Machinery

330

Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat

Transportation Machinery,Equipment

118

Leasing,Rentals

121

Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment

78

Lodging, Hotels

31

Others90

Recreation

65

Food,Beverages

377

Textile,Textile Products,Clothing

193

Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products
Paper Products,Stationery,Books
ChemicalRecycled Resources

Service（1,809）

11

16

20

Broadcasting
Maintenance,Guarding,Testing

190

343

Advertising

105

102

Information

496

281

Labor Dispatching

66

40

Special Services

294
124

Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products

319

Medical,Welfare,Public Health

Machinery,Equipment951

Education

Others355

Others28
184
43

OthersTotal

3.SizeLarge Firms

2,051

18.2%

Small to Medium-sized Firms

9,224

81.8%

micro Firms

3,324

29.5%

Total

11,275100.0%86©TEIKOKUDATABANK,LTD

11,275

TDB Trends Research June 20204

An economic DI of 50 is the point separating good and bad, so a DI over
50 means “good,” and below 50 means “bad.” (The numbers are rounded
off to one decimal place.) No weight is given according to a company's size,and calculations are made on the basis of “one company, one vote.”

2.Research Items*Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year)*Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity
utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours).Size Classification

3.Research Period and Methodology

Internet-based survey conducted June 17 – 30 2020

Industry
Manufacturing andOther Industries*

The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index
Research Purpose/Researched Terms
TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly
statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on theirgeneral business activities including the current condition and future outlookof the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary
purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan’s economy.
Selection of the Subject Corporations
Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in
the survey.

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Service**

Large Firms

Small to Medium-Sized Firms(Micro Firms included)

Capital: More than 300 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 300
Capital: More than 100 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 50
Capital: More than 50 million yen
andNo. of Employee: Over 100

Capital: Below 300 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 300
Capital: Below 100 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 50
Capital: Below 50 million yenor
No. of Employee: Below 100

Micro Firms

No. of Employee: Below 20

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

No. of Employee: Below 5

Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sizedcorporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act.
Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among
those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act.

DI Calculation
The DI（Diffusion Index）is calculated by multiplying the number of responses
for each assessment category by the number given in parentheses in thetable below, to a seven-level assessment rated by companies.
good

fairly goodneither good nor bad

fairly badbadvery badpoints

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

number of responses
for each category

N6

N5

N4

N3

N2

N1

N0

Selection category Extremely good

Economic DI
Total of (Points for each category × Number of responses for each category) 1
× × 100＝
Number of valid responsesN
6

∑
≡

6
i ≡0

i × Ni

N

×

1
× 100
6

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TDB Trends Research June 20205