16：50〜17：20

アジア各国における自動車とバイクの保有率の関連性分析
Dynamic interactions between Motorcycle and Car ownership in
Asia: A cross-country analysis
ブウ トゥアン アン 研究員

１．研究の背景In developing Asia, there are two special transport
problems that call for innovative policy measures. One is
the rapid motorcycle growths at low income levels and its
dominant share in urban transport because of its low
operation costs and poor public transport services.
Another is the dominance of buses in inter-city transport
due to its lower fare as compared to other modes (rail andair). However, as income increases and services of somemodes improve further, such behaviors may change
drastically. And such uncertainties in travel behavior may
create the risk of making the wrong investment in the longrun.

２．研究の目的、構成、考察対象
The objectives of this research are to explore andunderstand long-term trends in travel behavior focusing
on influences of socioeconomic and infrastructure/services changes, and recommend policy solutions forsustainable transport systems in developing Asian
countries.
To pursue the objectives, the research framework
consists of the following steps. The first step explores thelong-term trends in private vehicle ownership and travel
behavior (frequency, distance and mode choice). The
second step analyzes the dynamic interactions between theinfrastructure/services and the users. Finally, policy
measures are suggested.
The research focuses on both urban and inter-city
passenger transport in a number of developing Asian
countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia)
and developed countries (Taiwan, Korea and Japan).

３．アジアにおけるモータリゼーションの動向
As a part of the overall study, this section presents
preliminary results of the analysis on the long-term
motorization trends in selected Asian countries using
country and provincial level time-series data. The
motorization is measured by the number of private
vehicles namely cars and motorcycles per thousand
population.
The country-level analysis found different patterns ofprivate vehicle ownership across the countries. At lower
income stage, motorcycle ownership (MCO) grows at
extremely high rates, as a result, the high MCO
accelerates the car ownership (CAO). At higher incomestage, two major trends are found. First, MCO is replaced
by CAO as experienced by Japan and Korea. Second,
CAO is stabilized at lower levels while MCO continues
growing as observed in Taiwan. An important question topolicy makers in the developing countries is what pattern
the rest of Asia may follow in the future? Is it Japan’s,
Taiwan’s or other pattern?
The provincial-level data analysis for Vietnam (19952008) and Taiwan (1979-2008) showed different patterns
of private vehicle ownership across cities and provinces inthe same country. Comparing to metropolitan cities, local
cities/provinces may have higher levels and higher growth
rates of private vehicle ownership (MCO plus CAO). As
MCO goes on increasing with income, it may indirectly
impact CAO: CAO may rapidly increase when MCO
surpasses 300 motorcycles per thousand people and besaturated when MCO reaches 600 motorcycles per
thousand people.
The cross-sectional data analysis for Vietnam (2008)
and Taiwan (2009) revealed that across cities, theinfluence of different factors on the total vehicle
ownership may vary by income stage. At lower incomestage (Vietnam), income level and urbanization may be
dominant factors; however, at higher income stage theinfluence of these factors is weaker and other factors, suchas road density and provision of public transport, playbigger roles.

４．分析の要約In summary, the inadequate infrastructures, poor public
transport services and the rapid motorization are creating aperfect condition for strong modal shifts to private
motorized and unsustainable modes in developing Asia.
However, the preliminary results suggest that the special
Asian situations strongly call for more innovative
solutions with focuses on the changes of the people’ travel
behavior and the motorcycle phenomenon in the long run.
It should be kept in mind that the motorization trends
observed elsewhere may not be applicable in developing
Asian countries because the motorcycles can totallychange the motorization picture in the region. At lower
income stage (as of now), motorcycles rapidly increase,killing urban public transport and encouraging higher car
growths. However, at higher income stage, motorcycles
may not disappear, co-existing with cars (Taiwan’s case),or may be declined, serving as a feeder mode (Japan’scase) depending on future policy interventions in thedeveloping countries.

５．今後の課題
In the next steps, analysis of mode choice behavior withfocus on the impacts of infrastructure/services strategies
will be conducted in the candidate countries to makepolicy recommendations.

(C)Dr. Vu Anh Tuan, Institute for Transport Policy Studies, 2010