Table 2.1. The Current Ambition policy scenario specification for urban passenger demand andmode choice
2020s

2030s

2040s

Economic instruments including carbon
pricing, road pricing and parking pricing are
gradually set up or enhanced worldwide.

Carbon pricing is implemented, and the carbon
price reaches USD 35-100 per tonne of carbon
dioxide (CO2). When implemented, roadpricing can increase non-energy-related caruse costs by up to 2.5%. Parking prices are
expected to increase by up to 20%.

Carbon pricing is implemented, and the carbon
price reaches USD 65-200 per tonne of CO2.
When implemented, road pricing can increase
non-energy-related car-use costs by up to 5%.
Meanwhile, parking prices are expected toincrease further, by up to 40%.

Transport infrastructure enhancements,
including the expansion of bicycle andpedestrian networks, the development andexpansion of public transport systems, andexpress lanes for buses, are set up orenhanced worldwide.

Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure networks
increase by 6-100%, while public transportsystems expand by up to 34%. Meanwhile,
express or priority lanes comprise up to 14%
of bus networks and public transport fares
decrease by 0.5-2.5%, thanks to integrated
ticketing.

Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure networks
increase by 13-200%, while public transportsystems expand by up to 67%. Meanwhile,
express or priority lanes comprise up to 27%
of bus networks and public transport fares
decrease by 1-5%, thanks to integrated
ticketing.

Transport service improvements, including
public transport service optimisation, sharedmobility incentives, carpooling policies andsupport for Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
systems, are set up or enhanced worldwide.

Public transport service levels change by
between -4% and 10%. The number of sharedvehicles per capita is boosted by 0-67%. The
average private vehicle occupancy rate grows
by 1.1-2.8%. Meanwhile, MaaS systems
decrease fares for public transport and sharedmobility by 0.3-3.4%.

Public transport service levels change by
between -7% and 20%. The number of sharedvehicles per capita is boosted by 0-134%. The
average private vehicle occupancy rate grows
by 2.3-5.6%. Meanwhile, MaaS systems
decrease fares for public transport and sharedmobility by 0.6-6.7%.

An extensive set of regulatory measures,
including
speed
limitations,parking
restrictions, and urban vehicle-restriction
schemes, are gradually enforced morestrongly.

Speed limits decrease by 0.6-10%. Between
1.6 and 17% of urban surface areas are
subject to parking constraints. Car ownershipdecreases by 5.9%.

Speed limits decrease by 1.3-20%. Between
3.3 and 34% of urban surface areas are
subject to parking constraints. Car ownershipdecreases by 11.7%.

Additional measures, including land-use
policies and transit-oriented development, aregradually improved.
Exogenous changes such as teleworking are
maintained after the pandemic.

The average population density ranges
between -3.4% and 6.7%. There is a
1.7% increase in the land-use mix.
Exogenous changes such as teleworking are
maintained after the pandemic. Between 0.8%
and 6.7% of the active population teleworks
regularly.

The average population density ranges
between -6.7% and 13.4%. There is a
3.3% increase in the land-use mix.
Exogenous changes such as teleworking are
maintained after the pandemic. Between 1.6%
and 13.4% of the active population teleworks
regularly.

Table 2.2. The High Ambition policy scenario specification for urban passenger demand andmode choice
2020s

2030s

2040s

Economic instruments including carbon
pricing, road pricing and parking pricing are
gradually set up or enhanced worldwide.

Carbon pricing is implemented and the carbon
price reaches USD 65-150 per tonne of carbon
dioxide (CO2). Road pricing increases nonenergy-related car-use costs by 0.8-9%, whileparking prices increase by 6-50%.

Carbon pricing is implemented and the carbon
price reaches USD 130-200 per tonne of CO2.
Road pricing increases non-energy-related caruse costs by 1.8-18%, while parking prices
increase by 13-100%.

Transport infrastructure enhancements,
including the expansion of bicycle andpedestrian networks, the development andexpansion of public transport systems, andexpress lanes, are set up or enhanced
worldwide.

Bike and pedestrian infrastructure networks
increase by 13-167%, while public transportsystems expand by up to 67%. Meanwhile,
between 3% and 20% of bus networks areprioritised and public transport fares decreaseby 0.5-4.2%, thanks to integrated ticketing.

Bike and pedestrian infrastructure networks
increase by 26-334%, while public transportsystems expand by up to 134%. Meanwhile,
6-40% of the bus networks are prioritised andpublic transport fares decrease by 1-8.4%,
thanks to integrated ticketing.

Transport service improvements, including
public transport service optimisation, sharedmobility incentives, carpooling policies andsupport for Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
systems are set up or enhanced worldwide.

Public transport service levels increase by
between 3% and 17%. The number of sharedvehicles per capita is boosted by 1-100%. The
average private vehicle occupancy rate grows
by 2.5-5.6%. Meanwhile, MaaS systems
decrease fares for public transport and sharedmobility by 0.6-6.7%.

Public transport service levels increase by
between 6% and 34%. The number of sharedvehicles per capita is boosted by 3-200%. The
average private vehicle occupancy rate grows
by 5.1-11.2%. Meanwhile, MaaS systems
decrease fares for public transport and sharedmobility by 1.3-13.4%.

An extensive set of regulatory measures,
including speed limitations, parking restrictions,and urban vehicle-restriction schemes, aregradually enforced more strongly.

Speed limits decrease by 1.6-16.7%. Between
2.3% and 25% of urban surface areas are
subject to parking constraints. Car ownershipdecreases by between 1.1% and 8.4%.

Speed limits decrease by 3.3-33.4%. Between
4.6% and 50% of urban surface areas are
subject to parking constraints. Car ownershipdecreases by between 2.3% and 16.7%.

Additional measures, including land-use
policies, transit-oriented development andteleworking-promotion policies, are gradually
improved.

The average population density increases by
up to 13.4%. There is a 2.5% increase in theland-use mix. Between 1.1% and 10% of theactive population teleworks regularly.

The average population density increases by
up to 26.7%. There is a 5% increase in the landuse mix. Between 2.3% and 20% of the active
population teleworks regularly.

Table 2.3. The Current Ambition policy scenario specification for non-urban passenger demand
and mode choice
2020s

2030s

2040s

Outside of urban areas in most high-income
countries, there is investment in rail andelectrification of rail networks, leading tofrequency and speed improvements. Somehigh-income countries make plans to develop
high-speed rail connections.

Outside of urban areas in most high-income
countries and some middle-income countries,
there is investment in rail and electrification ofrail networks, leading to frequency and speed
improvements. Some high-income countries
make plans to develop high-speed rail
connections.

No targeted action to encourage coaches orshared modes outside of urban areas.

No targeted action to encourage coaches orshared modes outside of urban areas.

No targeted action to encourage coaches orshared modes outside of urban areas.

Carbon-pricing policies are implemented via
a carbon tax of USD 15-35 per tonne of carbon
dioxide (CO2) across all regions.

Carbon pricing policies are implemented via acarbon tax of USD 35-100 per tonne of CO2
across all regions.

Carbon pricing policies are implemented via acarbon tax of USD 65-200 per tonne of CO2
across all regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as apercentage of the airfare, ranges from 0% to2.5% across all regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as a percentageof the airfare, ranges from 1% to 7.5% acrossall regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as a percentageof the airfare, ranges from 2% to 15% acrossall regions.

In high-income regions, a ban on short-haul
flights (i.e. for distances less than
500 kilometres) is introduced to encourage theuptake of rail where good-quality connections
exist.

Table 2.4. The High Ambition policy scenario specification for non-urban passenger demand
and mode choice
2020s

2030s

2040s

Outside of urban areas in most high-income
countries, there is greater investment in railand electrification of rail networks, leading tofrequency and speed improvements.

Outside of urban areas, continued investment
in rail sees a growth in viable transport links
that qualify for the short-haul flight ban. Railelectrification and improvements in frequency
and speed persist, and new high-speed rail
connections continue to be deployed.

Incentives are introduced to encourage theuse of collective modes such as coaches andridesharing for regional and intercity travel.

Greater investment in rail and electrification ofrail networks becomes a priority in all world
regions. Rail transport becomes a morecompetitive alternative, with increased
frequency and speed. Ambitious plans todevelop high-speed rail connections in somecountries.
Incentives to encourage the use of collectivemodes such as coaches and ridesharing
remain in place for regional and intercity travel.

Carbon-pricing policies are implemented via
a carbon tax of USD 35-50 per tonne of carbon
dioxide (CO2) across all regions.

Carbon-pricing policies are implemented via acarbon tax of USD 65-150 per tonne of CO2
across all regions.

Carbon-pricing policies are implemented via acarbon tax of USD 130-200 per tonne of CO2
across all regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as apercentage of the airfare, ranges from 0% to
5% across all regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as a percentageof the airfare, ranges from 3% to 15% acrossall regions.

Air travel ticket taxes, applied as a percentageof the airfare, ranges from 5% to 30% acrossall regions.

In high-income regions, a ban on short-haul
flights (i.e. for distances less than
500 kilometres) is introduced to encourage theuptake of rail where good-quality connections
exist.

A ban on short-haul flights is introduced forjourneys shorter than 500km where analternative rail connection of adequate quality
is available. This is to encourage the uptake ofrail where good-quality connections exist.

Incentives to encourage the use of collectivemodes such as coaches and ridesharing
remain in place for regional and intercity travel.

Table 2.5. The Current Ambition policy scenario specification for freight demand and mode
choiceDecarbonisation measures for urban freight
are slowly introduced. The uptake of pick-up
and drop-off locations for parcels, and asset
sharing, increase linearly. Restricted accesszones also start to become more widely
implemented. Meanwhile, the use of electriccargo bikes for last-mile distribution of various
commodities grows exponentially.
Incentives for high-capacity vehicles (roadtractors) encourage a transition in interurban
freight. By 2025, there is a 10% increase in the
average load utilisation (load factor) of roadfreight.

2020s

2030s

2040s

The uptake of cargo bikes keeps growing
exponentially until 2035, when this growthslows but continues to progress linearly.
Restricted access zones expand at a linear rate
half of what was observed in the 2020s. The
use of pick-up and drop-off locations forparcels, and asset sharing, continue toincrease at the same rate.
Road tractors begin to have a larger impact,increasing the truck loads and decreasing thecost per tonne-kilometre.

All of the developments from the 2020s and2030s have cemented their place in the urban
logistics system. All measures continue toexpand their share at the same rate.

Distance-based charges are encouraged forroad transport and introduced in policy
discussions.

Distance-based charges are introduced in
2030 and begin to grow continuously.

Distance-based charges rise further in the2040s.

Slow and smart steaming are incentivised in
the shipping sector to reduce emissions.

Vessel speed reductions
5% improvement in efficiency.

a

Vessel speed reductions lead to a 10%
improvement in efficiency compared to thebaseline (2019).

Digital transformation strategies leveraging
near-real-time data are used to reduce
intermodal dwell times in journeys with sections
undertaken by rail or on waterways.

Improvements in travel times make intermodal
solutions more attractive but do not improve tothe same extent as under the High Ambition
scenario.

Travel times for intermodal solutions continue
to reduce at a slower rate than under the High
Ambition scenario.

lead

to

Load factors continue to increase, ending up
25% higher in 2050, compared to 2019.

Transport network improvement plans for rail, waterways and port infrastructure begin to be phased in and funded.

The trade in and consumption of petroleumand coal-based commodities begins todecrease, directly impacting freight transportdemand for fossil fuels and the freight activity
associated with the trade of thesecommodities.

Carbon pricing is introduced but with prices set
at varying levels in different regions.

Carbon pricing continues to vary by region, andbetween sea-based transport modes and othermodes. The price of carbon ranges between
USD 150-250 per tonne of carbon dioxide(CO2).

While the trade in other commodities continues
to increase, the trade in oil and coal grows to alesser extent.

While the trade in other commodities continues
to increase, the trade in oil and coal grows to alesser extent.

Table 2.6. The High Ambition policy scenario specification for freight demand and mode choice
2020s

2030s

2040s

Sustainable urban logistics measures are implemented more widely than under the Current Ambition scenario. Cargo bikes and asset-sharing
double the growth observed in the Current Ambition scenario. The use of pick-up and drop-off locations for parcels is 60% higher than in the Current
Ambition scenario. Restricted access zones are stricter, increasing by a factor of three the likelihood that electric vehicles are used to transport goodsin cities.
Incentives for high-capacity vehicles Road tractors begin to have a larger impact, Load factors continue to increase, ending up(road tractors) encourage a transition in increasing the truck loads and decreasing the cost 25% higher in 2050, compared to 2019.
interurban freight. By 2025, there is a 10% per tonne-kilometre.
increase in the average load utilisation (loadfactor) of road freight.
Distance-based charges are encouraged Distance-based charges are introduced in 2030 and Distance-based charges rise further in thefor road transport and introduced in policy begin to grow continuously.
2040s.
discussions.
Slow and smart steaming are incentivisedin the shipping sector to reduce emissions.

Vessel speed reductions lead to an average
10% improvement in efficiency which reduces dwell
times and environmental impacts.

Vessel speed reductions lead to a
25% improvement in efficiency compared tothe baseline (2019).

By 2025, digital transformation strategies
leveraging near-real time data cause truckto-port and truck-to-rail dwell times todecrease by 20%. Meanwhile, rail-to-port
dwell times decrease by 15% by 2025.
Inland waterways dwell times decrease by
5%.

Reductions in dwell times across road, rail andinland waterways result in a reduction in travel times
associated with intermodal trips, making intermodal
solutions more attractive. The improvements
continue to increase.

Travel times for intermodal solutions continue
to reduce. Truck-to-port and truck-to-rail dwell
times decrease by 45% by 2050. Rail-to-port
dwell times decrease by 45% by 2050. Inland
waterways dwell times decrease by 25%.

The acceleration and expansion of investments in transport network improvement plans is greater than under the Current Ambition scenario.

The trade in and consumption of
petroleum- and coal-based commodities
begins to decrease, directly impacting
freight transport demand for fossil fuels andthe freight activity associated with the tradeof these commodities.

Carbon pricing is introduced but with prices set atvarying levels in different regions.

Carbon pricing continues to vary by region but
at higher values than under the Current
Ambition scenario. The price of carbon ranges
between USD 300-500 per tonne of carbon
dioxide (CO2).

While the trade in other commodities continues toincrease, there is a yearly decrease in demand forcoal and petroleum.

There is a 50% yearly decrease in demand forcoal and petroleum.

Table 2.7. The Current Ambition policy scenario specification for the transition to cleaner
vehicle fleets
2020s

2030s

2040s

The turnover of vehicle fleets continues inline with historical trends. New vehicle
efficiency improvements continue, driven byexisting fuel economy standards and in linewith historical trends.

Mandatory and aspirational zero-emission
vehicle (ZEV) sales targets are met.
European Union member states andsignatories to the COP26 Accelerating to Zero
Coalition declaration reach 100% ZEV sales by2035.

Mandatory and aspirational ZEV sales targets
are met in countries and regions with statedtargets.

Signatories to the Global Memorandum ofUnderstanding (MOU) on Zero-Emission
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles reach thetarget of 30% ZEV sales for heavy-goods
vehicles (HGVs) in 2030.

Signatories to the Global MOU on ZeroEmission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
reach the target of 100% ZEV sales for HGVs
in 2040.

Biofuel blending targets for road fuels are
met in countries with defined targets, including
Finland, India, Indonesia and theUnited Kingdom.

Biofuel blending targets for road fuels are met
in countries with defined targets, including
Argentina, Finland, India, Indonesia and theUnited Kingdom.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates
are introduced in the EU and the United Statesaccording to the ambitions set out in the
ReFuel EU and SAF Grand Challenge
initiatives, respectively (see note).

Mandates for SAFs increase in Europe and theUnited States.

By 2050, SAFs make up 85% of aviation fuelsin Europe and 100% in the United States.

Note: The carbon intensity of fuels is estimated according to Yoo, Lee and Wang (2022[7]) and Ueckert et al. (2021[8]).

Table 2.8. The High Ambition policy scenario specification for the transition to cleaner vehicle
fleets
2020s

2030s

2040s

The turnover of vehicle fleets continues inline with historical trends and to meet travel
demand. New vehicle efficiency improvements
for road vehicles double from historical trends,
driven by more stringent fuel economy
standards. Meanwhile, aviation efficiency
improvements increase to 3% per year.

By 2035, 100% of sales of new passenger
vehicles and vans in East and Northeast Asia
(ENEA), Europe, and in the United States,
Canada, Australia and New Zealand (UCAN)
are zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This is inline with the Global Fuel Economy Initiative(GFEI) ZERO Pathway. By 2030, 100% of newbus sales in high-income regions (ENEA,
Europe and UCAN) are ZEVs. Meanwhile, by2035, 100% of new two- and three-wheelers in
all regions are ZEVs.
Signatories to the Global Memorandum ofUnderstanding (MOU) on Zero-Emission
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles reach thetarget of 30% ZEV sales for heavy-goods
vehicles (HGVs) in 2030.

By mid-decade, 100% of sales of newpassenger vehicles and vans in emerging
markets are ZEVs, in line with the GFEI’s
ZERO Pathway. By 2040, 100% of new bus
sales in the remaining markets are ZEVs.
Also by 2040, 100% of sales of new heavy-duty
vehicles in high-income regions are ZEVs.
Meanwhile, emerging markets will reach this
100% target by the end of the decade.
Signatories to the Global MOU on ZeroEmission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
reach the target of 100% ZEV sales for HGVs
in 2040. Non-signatories reach the target of
30% of ZEV sales for HGVs in 2040 and 100%in 2050.

By 2040, all new trains in high-income regions(UCAN, ENEA, and Europe) are zeroemission. The remaining markets reach thistarget by 2050.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates
are introduced in the EU and the United Statesaccording to the ambitions set out in the
ReFuel EU and SAF Grand Challenge
initiatives, respectively (see note).

The roll-out of SAF mandates continues andalternatives to conventional fuels begin tocome down in price. SAF mandates also
expand to other regions. Aircraft with electric
powertrains become available and begin totake share for short-haul flights with low
passenger capacities.

Commercial applications of electric aircraft
emerge in niche sectors. SAFs make up 85%
of aviation fuels globally by 2050 (see note).

Initial deployment of zero-emission shipping
fuels occurs in green corridors.

By 2050, zero-emission fuels make up 100% ofshipping fuels. Also by 2050, the electrificationof short sea shipping routes occurs (see note).

Note: The carbon intensity and lifecycle emissions of biogenic and synthetic pathways are estimated according to Yoo, Lee and Wang
(2022[7]) and Ueckert et al. (2021[8]). The electrification of short-sea shipping is in line with Kersey et al. (2022[9]).