#SMARTer2030
ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges

Gold Sponsors• BT• Deutsche Telekom• Fujitsu• Microsoft• Verizon
Silver Sponsors• AT&T• SamsungBronze Sponsors• Swisscom• Telenor
Major conclusions independently reviewed by• John A. “Skip” Laitner, Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates, and President, theAssociation for Environmental Studies and Sciences• Mike Berners-Lee, Director, Small World Consulting
Acknowledgements: The Global e-Sustainability Initiative and Accenture Strategy thank the many experts
engaged throughout the duration of this effort for generously providing their time, insights, and feedback tostrengthen the quality of this report. A full list of SMARTer2030 team members is listed in the appendix.

The following materials were prepared exclusively for the Global e-Sustainability Initiative by Accenture Strategy (Division of
Accenture plc.). Neither the Global e-Sustainability Initiative nor Accenture Strategy makes any representations or warranties
to any third party with respect to the information contained in this report. While reasonable steps have been taken to ensurethat the information in this report is correct, neither the Global e-Sustainability Initiative nor Accenture Strategy give any
warranty or make any representation as to its accuracy and accept any liability for any errors or omissions. The study should
not be used or relied upon by anyone without independent investigation and analysis and neither the Global e-Sustainability
Initiative nor Accenture Strategy assumes any liability for any such use or reliance by third parties.
Any trademarks and other service marks contained in this document are the property of respective owners and may not be
used without their prior written permission.

Contact information
Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI)
c/o Scotland House
Rond Point Schuman 6
B-1040 Brussels
Belgium
Tel: +32 2 282 84 42
Fax: +32 2 282 84 14
General enquiries: info@gesi.org
Press enquiries: press@gesi.org

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –2About GeSIThe Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI) is a strategic partnership of Information and Communication
Technology (ICT) companies and organizations committed to creating and promoting technologies andpractices to foster economic, environmental and social sustainability. Formed in 2001, GeSI’s vision is asustainable world through responsible, ICT-enabled transformation. GeSI fosters global and open cooperation, informs the public of its members’ activities to improve their sustainability performance, and promotes
innovative technologies for sustainable development. GeSI’s membership includes over 30 of the world’s
leading ICT companies; the organization also collaborates with a range of international stakeholders committed to ICT sustainability objectives. These partnerships include the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the International
Telecommunications Union (ITU), and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development(WBCSD). Such collaborations help shape GeSI’s global vision on evolution of the ICT sector, and how it
can best meet the challenges of sustainable development. For more information, see www.gesi.org.
About Accenture
Accenture plc. (,,Accenture’’) is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing
company, with more than 323,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries. Combining unparalleled experience, comprehensive capabilities across all industries and business functions, and extensive
research on the world’s most successful companies, Accenture collaborates with clients to help them become high-performance businesses and governments. The company generated net revenues of US$30.0
billion for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2014. Its home page is www.accenture.com.
About Accenture Strategy
Accenture Strategy operates at the intersection of business and technology. We bring together our capabilities in business, technology, operations and functional strategy to help our clients envision and executeindustry-specific strategies that support enterprise wide transformation. Our focus on issues related to digital disruption, competitiveness, global operating models, talent and leadership help drive both efficiencies
and growth. For more information, follow @AccentureStrat or visit www.accenture.com/strategy

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –3

Foreword by GeSI
Almost a decade ago, leading representatives of the global Information andCommunications Technology (ICT) sector founded the Global e-Sustainability
Initiative (GeSI). GeSI is focused on researching and addressing climatechange, and developing ideas to realize human potential and usher in an era ofinnovation and low-carbon growth. We seek to promote shared prosperity in thedeveloping and developed world through economic growth, whilst ensuring that
we protect the interests of the planet and cut our emissions to sustainable levels.
Our vision is to create a sustainable world through responsible, ICT-enabledtransformation.
2015 is a crucial year for global climate policy. Political leaders will gather inParis to decide how to address the current, alarming trends facing our environment. Many people think that the solution will require difficult trade-offs. We believe, though, that if policymakers, businesses, and consumers can embrace ICTtransformation, not only will we be in a better position to usher in a low-carbon
future, but we may also realize important economic and social objectives. Thisis our goal and the motivation behind this new report.

Luis Neves
Chairman, GeSI#SMARTer2030: ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges is the third report in our continuing series on
this important topic and builds on our understanding of how interdependent we are across countries, industries, and cultures. Our findings show an ICT-enabled world of 2030 that is cleaner, healthier andmore prosperous, with greater opportunities for individuals everywhere.
This new report is based on in-depth modeling, unprecedented in its range, into the potential for ICT todisrupt business as usual and to reshape radically the way we live, as well as reducing the impact that
continuous economic growth has on the environment. It shows how ICT can help break the link between
economic development and resource depletion, with emissions savings close to ten times those generated
by the ICT sector itself.
ICT is a central pillar in the response to climate change. This report identifies even more possibilities
for environmental and economic savings, but also goes further. Until now, there has always been astrong correlation between economic growth and increased energy consumption. Now we find that ICT
can finally decouple economic growth from emissions growth. Not only are we seeing potential
gains beyond the baseline we extrapolated just a few years ago, if current trends continue we are also
likely to realize even more gains than we can predict today.
Clearly, ICT transformation can change people’s lives for the better. The future of global development
should be driven by connectivity and the spread of ideas, information, and innovation. Unfortunately, too
many people still lack internet and telecommunications access but the ICT sector is committed to expanding access so that by 2030, 2.5 billion more people have access to mobile health, distance learning,
and the full array of benefits that connectivity can provide.
I am proud to introduce this new research, identifying the environmental, economic, and social promise of
ICT in the world of 2030. The #SMARTer2030 report represents a commitment from our industry to enablea better, healthier and sustainable future for all. We are committed to doing what we can to advance thistransformation in partnership with our customers, governments, civil society, and citizens everywhere.
I do hope you will find this report useful. Be part of the #SMARTer2030 story. Join us and take action.

Luis Neves
GeSI Chairman

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –4Foreword by UNFCCC
Combating climate change was once seen as a sacrifice, an inevitable trade-off
between environmental goals and economic performance — the SMARTer2030
report and a legion of new and emerging analysis across multiple sectors underlines that this is no longer the case.
The smart and innovative transitions required to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to decouple growth and development from environmental degradation are rapidly being understood as keys for unlocking a healthier, more prosperous, exciting and fairer world.
SMARTer2030 comes some six months before the crucial United Nations Climate Convention Conference in Paris in 2015. The long-term outcome of the
new agreement requires a peaking of global emissions in ten years’ time, and adramatic bending of the emissions curve thereafter.
In the second half of the century the world needs to have restored the balanceof planet earth such that what little emissions are left are easily and safely absorbed by natural systems such as forests: some term this climate neutrality.

Christiana
Figueres
Executive Secretary UNFCCC

This is not about de-industrialization but rather about a transition to clean, high-tech economies that operate at ever accelerating levels of efficiency and ever diminishing levels of pollution and natural resource
degradation.
This third GeSI SMART report underlines the pivotal role of Information and Communication Technology(ICT) in enabling the achievement of these aims, while opening up a whole raft of new opportunities forpeople in all countries, from access to new kinds of educational opportunities to improved access tohealthcare, from an increased quality of life to the creation of 21st century businesses.
These are among the many reasons why the UNFCCC is proud and delighted to partner with the Global eSustainability Initiative (GeSI) as a key partner of our Momentum for Change initiative. We welcome the
SMARTer2030 report as another step on the effort to raise awareness of the tremendous potential of ICT
solutions in facilitating and enabling innovation and positive change. SMARTer2030 is a narrative and thetransformative contribution of ICT about a better future and better living for all.

Christiana Figueres,
Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –5Foreword by Accenture
By the end of this year, the world will likely have made significant political progress
not just in combatting climate change, but in committing to the new Sustainable
Development Goals that will tackle the world’s biggest challenges. It is worth acknowledging the way in which business has become much more central to theseissues in recent years. No longer a follower of the climate debate, business is now
leading it. Two factors explain this change:
First, companies have begun to recognize that sustainable practices are not simply
a matter of adhering to rules on climate stewardship or managing risk and reputation, but that, designed and led well, they can be a major source of growth andinnovation.
Second, the proliferation and maturity of digital technologies in the last decade hascreated business models that are not only changing customer experiences and consumption habits, but doing so in inherently resource efficient ways.

Peter Lacy
Managing Director
Accenture Strategy

In short, enterprises are putting sustainability and technology at the heart of their business strategies. Accenture Strategy sees this powerful combination – if harnessed effectively – shifting sustainable businessfrom a long phase of pilots and peripheral efforts to a new era of large scale transformations in production,
sourcing, servicing and consuming. We estimate that ICT technologies could generate $6 trillion in additional revenues and $5 trillion in cost savings in 2030, representing enormous opportunities for countries
to improve their comparative advantage and for companies to boost their competitive advantage.
Technologies such as analytics, advanced robotics, Smart Grids and mobile are no longer merely enablersof doing business, but drivers of market disruption and creation. Only five years ago it would have seemed
unbelievable that some of the world’s most powerful companies could include a hotelier, AirBnB, which
doesn’t own a single hotel or a global transportation business, Uber, without a single car in its fleet. Bothare driving more efficient use of our global stock of buildings and vehicles.
Today, digital technologies behind these successes have the potential to bring E-Health and E-Learning tobillions of currently unconnected people, while boosting agricultural productivity. In all, we expect 2.5 billion
people to be connected by these innovations by 2030, helping to create attractive and competitive newmarkets that are built on foundations of greater environmental and social sustainability. Mature economies
are also benefiting from greater energy efficiency, smarter services and the Industrial Internet of Things.
The promise is real, but to make it a reality, governments and business leaders need to take bolder steps
to encourage more widespread adoption. Regulations, standards, policies and governance structures needto adapt at the pace of technology. Digital customer experiences need to be tailored to different populationgroups. New technologies also require careful management of some downsides: the rise cybercrime, theimpact on jobs and the potential of a widening digital divide.
Despite these challenges, the business case for digitally-driven sustainable investments is clear. Now itneeds the momentum that only businesses, governments and consumers can create together.
I hope you enjoy reading the report and that it provides an evidence-base for the debate and collaboration
required to deliver the tantalizing prize on offer.

Peter Lacy
Managing Director, Sustainability Services, Accenture Strategy

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –6

Contents
Foreword by GeSI

4

Foreword by UNFCCC

5Foreword by Accenture

6
st

1

Executive Summary: ICT Solutions for 21 Century Challenges

8

2

A triple win: ICT will deliver significant environmental, social and economic benefits
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Environment – Decreasing emissions and resource consumption whilst allowing for growth
2.3 Economic – ICT is good for business, creating new revenue opportunities and reducing costs
2.4 Social – Boosting incomes, cutting costs and improving lives

15
15
17
22
25

3

Connected world: Eight sectors will profit most
3.1 Health – The doctor in your pocket
3.2 Learning – Education on your terms
3.3 Building – Smarter homes, smarter offices
3.4 Food – Produce more and waste less
3.5 Mobility – Reaching your destination, not a dead end
3.6 Energy – Integrating renewables into the grid
3.7 Work and business - The impacts of E-business on working, banking & shopping
3.8 Manufacturing – Resource efficient and customer centric

29
29
34
38
42
46
51
56
60

4

Countries across all income levels can benefit from ICT solutions
4.1 Australia
4.2 Brazil
4.3 Canada
4.4 China
4.5 Germany
4.6 India
4.7 Kenya
4.8 United Kingdom
4.9 United States

64
64
67
70
73
76
80
83
86
89

5

Call to action: There are three stakeholder groups which are the most critical in accelerating ICT adoption
5.1 Policy makers
5.2 Business
5.3 Consumers

92
92
94
97

6

Appendix
6.1 Acknowledgements
6.2 Table of Figures
6.3 List of case studies in the report
6.4 Methodology overview
6.5 Approach to modelling
6.6 Glossary

99
99
100
102
103
104
133

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –7

1 Executive Summary: ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges
Overview
Since 2008, the Global e-Sustainability Initiative has been researching the role Information and Communications Technology (ICT) can play in cutting global CO2e emissions and promoting a more sustainable
society. This is our third report in that effort and it is based on detailed modeling that, for the first time,
also quantifies the far-reaching social and economic benefits of ICT.
The findings are profound.
As ICT has become faster, cheaper and more accessible globally, our report highlights its potential togenerate powerful environmental, economic and social benefits beyond what we envisioned as recently
as two years ago. Our findings show an ICT-enabled world that is cleaner, healthier and more prosperous, with greater opportunities for individuals everywhere.
Our major findings are as follows:•

ICT can enable a 20% reduction of global CO2e emissions by 2030, holding emissions at 2015
levels. This means we can potentially avoid the tradeoff between economic prosperity and environmental protection.

•

ICT emissions as a percentage of global emissions will decrease over time. Our research shows
the ICT sector’s emissions “footprint” is expected to decrease to 1.97% of global emissions by 2030,
compared to 2.3% in 2020, which our previous report predicted. Furthermore, the emissions avoided
through the use of ICT are nearly ten times greater than the emissions generated by deploying it.

•

ICT offers significant environmental benefits in addition to reducing carbon emissions. The
most substantial benefits identified by this study include increasing agricultural crop yields by 30%,
saving over 300 trillion liters of water and saving 25 billion barrels of oil per year.

•

An assessment of eight economic sectors – mobility & logistics, manufacturing, food, buildings,
energy, work & business, health and learning – shows that ICT could generate over $11 trillion ineconomic benefits per year by 2030, the equivalent of China’s expected annual GDP in 2015.

•

ICT will connect 2.5 billion extra people to the “knowledge economy” by 2030, giving 1.6 billion
more people access to healthcare and half a billion more people access to E-Learning tools.

•

Worldwide growth of the digital economy continues to accelerate, providing the scale necessary to drive greater connectivity and new, disruptive business models. And, as opposed to theold production-line economy, individuals are firmly at the center of this process.

In our view, three stakeholder groups hold the key to accelerating the widespread adoption of ICT solutions:policymakers, business leaders and consumers. We have developed recommendations for action for eachin the final section of the report.
What follows is a summary of each of these major findings and recommendations for realizing the full potential of ICT.

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –8

ICT has the potential to enable a 20% reduction of global CO2e emissions by 2030, holding emissions at 2015 levels.
In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report presenting the culmination of its research into the causes of climate change and its impact on the global ecosystem. The report found that if greenhouse gas emissions continued at their current rate, the world would significantly
miss its target of holding global average temperature increases to less than 2°C.
The IPCC concluded that a “business as usual” scenario would see temperature increases of between
2.6 and 4.8oC by the end of the century – an unhealthy scenario for our planet and quality of life.
The seemingly intractable problem, though, is that the global economy has so far failed to decouple economic growth from emissions growth. The historical trend holds that for every 1% increase in global GDP,CO2e emissions have risen by approximately 0.5%1 and resource intensity by 0.4%2.The world seems
caught in a bind, having to choose between economic prosperity and environmental protection.
We have found that by rolling out identified ICT solutions across the global economy, total global emissions of CO2e could be cut by 12Gt by 2030, promoting a path to sustainable growth.
Figure 1 illustrates the contribution to global emissions mitigation of the main sectors we have examinedin this report. The total emissions mitigation enabled by ICT alone would be enough to hold emissions attheir current level.3
Figure 1: CO2e abatement potential by sector (2030)

12.1
1.8
2.0
2.0
3.6

2.7

Mobility1

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Buildings

EnergyICT-enabledsavings

1 Mobility solutions consider ICT-enabled improvements to private and commercial mobility and additionally consider the reduced need to travel from various sectors,
including health, learning, commerce, etc.
Source: WRI, IPCC, World Bank, GeSI, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

1 Period from 1975 to 2010 considered. Accenture analysis based on data from WRI and World Bank GDP data,

http://data.worldbank.org/
2 Period from 1975 to 2010 considered. Accenture analysis based on data from SERI and Dittrich, M. (2014). Global

Material Flow Database. 2014 version and World Bank GDP data, http://data.worldbank.org/
3The 12.1 Gt CO

2e reduction in 2030 enabled by ICT includes 1.8 Gt CO2e abatement from integration of renewableenergy production into the grid. In its business as usual emissions forecast IPCC expects emissions to rise by 11.1
Gt by 2030. This rise already considers the CO2e abatement from renewable energy. Therefore, the additional ICTenabled CO2e reduction against the IPCC emissions forecast for 2030 is 10.3 Gt CO2e (based on a total of 12.1 Gt
CO2e minus 1.8 Gt CO2e from renewable.)

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –9

ICT emissions as a percentage of global emissions will decrease over time.
In our 2008 report, SMART2020, we estimated that the ICT sector’s emissions would reach 1.43Gt CO2eby 2020, which would represent 2.7% of global emissions. Five years later, our SMARTer2020 report revised that forecast down to 1.27Gt, representing 2.3% of global emissions. The revised estimates werebased on actual energy efficiencies realized between 2008 and 2012 as well as on updated data.
In this study, we predict a further decrease, with ICT’s own footprint expected to reach 1.25Gt CO2e in
2030, or 1.97% of global emissions.
Furthermore, our modeling shows that the 12Gt CO2e avoided through the use of ICT solutions is nearly
10 times higher than ICT’s expected footprint in 2030.
Our research shows that the decrease in the ICT sector’s footprint is due to a range of investments companies in the sector have been making to reduce their emissions and to the expected improvements inthe efficiency of ICT devices.
Figure 2: ICT benefits factor in 2020 and 2030 (Gt CO2e)

SMARTer
2030

SMARTer
2020(2012 report)

SMART
2020
(2008 report)

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

12.08
9.7x

1.25

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

9.10
1.27

7.2x

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

7.80
1.43

5.5x

Source: Source: WRI, IPCC, GeSI, SMARTer2020, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

ICT offers significant environmental benefits in addition to reducing carbon emissions.
ICT also offers other significant additional environmental benefits like spurring higher agricultural yields
and reducing the consumption of scarce resources. By 2030, the most substantial additional environmental benefits identified by this study include:• Increasing agricultural crop yields by 30%, or close to 900kg per hectare per year;• Saving over 300 trillion liters of water per year, mostly from smarter agricultural practices; and• Saving 25 billion barrels of oil per year.

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –10

An assessment of eight economic sectors – mobility & logistics, manufacturing, food, buildings,
energy, work & business, health and learning – shows that ICT could generate over $11 trillion ineconomic benefits per year by 2030.
ICT is transforming all aspects of the economy, but our research has found that the following eight sectors will deliver the most significant ICT-enabled sustainability benefits to the global economy, generatingover $11 trillion in sustainable benefits, slightly greater than China’s expected annual GDP for 20154.
Energy: ICT can enable the integration of renewables onto the grid, improve efficiency and heighten transparency.
Smart Grids, analytics solutions andadvanced energy management systems can abate 1.8Gt CO2e and generate $0.8 trillion in new revenue opportunities.

Food: ICT can help raise productivity
and reduce food waste.
Smart Agriculture will boost yields by
30%, avoid 20% of food waste and coulddeliver economic benefits worth $1.9 trillion. At the same time, Smart Agriculture
could reduce water needs by 250 trillion
liters and abate 2.0Gt CO2e.

Health: ICT will put “a doctor in yourpocket,” allowing users to manage
their own health via their smart device.

Learning: ICT can make education accessible, engaging, flexible and affordable.

ICT could deliver E-Health services to
1.6 billion people across the developing and developed world.

We expect to see 450 million E-Learning
participants in 2030, helping to raise incomes by 11% on average per e-degree.

Buildings: ICT will increase comfort
and reduce energy and water bills.

Mobility & Logistics: ICT can help everyone reach their destinations faster,cheaper and safer.

Smart building solutions could cut
2.0Gt CO2e from the housing sector,
reducing energy costs by $0.4 trillion
and creating revenue opportunities of$0.4 trillion.
Work & Business: ICT-enabled telecommuting and virtual conferencing
can save employees time and money
Additional revenues from e-commerce
could total $1.8 trillion and E-Work
could add $0.5 trillion while freeing up
100 hours per E-Worker annually.

Real-time traffic information, smart logistics, intelligent lighting and other ICT enabled solutions could abate 3.6Gt CO2e,
including abatement from avoided travel.
Manufacturing: ICT will place the customer at the center of a user focusedservice, cutting resource inputs at thesame time
Smart manufacturing, including virtual
manufacturing, customer centric production, circular supply chains and smart
services could abate 2.7Gt CO2e.

Furthermore, we estimate that $6.5 trillion of additional revenues will flow from ICT-enabled services in
2030 (see Figure 3): nearly half a trillion dollars from the 2.5 billion people newly connected to the digital

4 $11.4 trillion in stakeholder benefits expected. IMF, 2015 forecasts $11.3 trillion of GDP in current USD prices(Status as of May 2015), https://www.imf.org/

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –11economy, plus $1.6 trillion from other ICT-services. ICT-enabled services from other sectors will contribute an additional $4.5 trillion, revenues from increased agricultural yields, expanded e-commerce offerings, smart energy solutions and more.
Figure 3: ICT-enabled revenue opportunities (2030)

ICT sector

Stakeholders
0.8
0.8 0.0

1.8

0.5

0.4
0.2 0.2

0.7
0.5 0.2

6.5
0.4

2.0

0.6

1.9
0.1
1.8

1.2

Agriculture

ECommerce

4.5

E-WorkEnergyBuildings

Other
New
sectors connections

Total
2030

ICT could also cut total economic costs across the sectors by $4.9 trillion: $1.2 trillion from reduced electricity expenditure, $1.1 trillion from reduced fuel expenditure and $2.6 trillion from various other opportunities including savings on tuition, real estate and water.
Figure 4: ICT-enabled cost saving opportunities (2030)

Electricity

Fuel

1.2

1.1

Other (e.g.,
tuition, water)

Total savings
2030

2.6
Source: WRI, IPCC, Gartner, FAO, GeSI, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

4.9

ICT will connect 2.5 billion additional people to the “knowledge economy” by 2030.
The ICT-enabled economy of 2030 will not only be cleaner and more prosperous, but will support a better
quality of life. We believe ICT has the power to transform lives and to put the individual at the heart of the
new knowledge economy.
Our modeling finds that an additional 2.5 billion people will be connected to ICT by 2030. Global ICT access could bring E-Healthcare solutions to 1.6 billion people across the world and help half-a-billion people gain access to quality, affordable education through E-Learning. We believe E-Learning solutions
alone have the potential to raise incomes by 11% on average per e-degree, creating more than $0.5 trillion in additional annual income by 2030.
Overall, the benefits ICT can deliver at a personal level are threefold: reduced costs, higher incomes andgreater convenience. These benefits are particularly meaningful to disadvantaged or remote communities
where ICT could help pensioners with limited mobility to access healthcare at home via E-Health solutions, or provide a smallholder farmer in rural Kenya with access to global crop, weather and market data,
boosting his or her income, raising yield and cutting resource-use and associated emissions.

Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –12

Similarly, our research shows that E-Working solutions can boost the productivity of tele-Workers in allparts of the world, giving them back an average of 100 hours a year to spend with their friends and family(250 billion hours across the global economy in total).
Worldwide growth of the digital economy continues to accelerate, providing the scale necessary
to drive greater connectivity and new, disruptive business models.
Since our last report, SMARTer2020 published in 2012, several major developments have converged tocreate a genuine prospect for the digital economy to take-off:• User Centricity: One of the major differences between the new, digital, economy and the old is therole and power of the customer as an individual. No longer at the end of an impersonal production
line, users are now at the center of the process, able to direct and co-create services according totheir specific needs, for example via personalized medicine and diagnostics for health conditions, orthe customization of a new garment. We illustrate what this means in practice for each of the eightsectors later in the report.
• Number of Connected Devices: In 2015, “digital connectivity” has fundamentally changed. Internet
access and smart phone ownership are at much higher levels and the number of connected devices
is expected to grow to 100 billion by 20305.
• New Business Models: The business case for ICT-enabled business models is now stronger thanever. That wasn’t as clear at the time of our last report. Digital disruptors like Uber and AirBnB havegrown into multi-billion dollar businesses and 61% of c-suite executives interviewed by Accentureemphasized the revenue opportunities presented by digital investments6.
• Finally, as the technology-fluent millennial generation grows more affluent and demands more flexibility from the goods and services its members buy, opportunities abound for organizations to respond in ever more innovative ways.
Recommendations
This new research demonstrates that ICT has the potential to create a more hopeful and prosperous future, putting the citizen at the heart of a sustainable, digital economy.
In our view, three stakeholder groups hold the key to accelerating the widespread adoption of ICT solutions: policymakers, business leaders and consumers. We have developed recommendations for action
for each in the final section of the report.
Policymakers• Set and enforce global and national emissions targets and recognize ICT solutions as a core tool tosecuring continued economic growth under these constraints.
• Incentivize investments in infrastructure geared to connecting the unconnected and enable more people, across all income segments, to gain access to ICT.
• Establish a fair, balanced and consistent regulatory approach to ICT that promotes innovation andinvestment, protects intellectual property rights and ensures consumer privacy and security.
Business Leaders• Drive investments in ICT uptake and cooperate with others in your sector.

5 International Energy Agency, More Data Less Energy, 2014
6 Accenture, CEO Briefing 2015, From Productivity to Outcomes, 2015

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –13

• Explore ICT-enabled revenue and cost-saving opportunities and set bold sustainability targets to harness opportunities and prepare for tighter emissions regulation.
Consumers• Get ready to “think digital” and be willing to try innovative ways of going about work and life.
• Use ICT to tailor services to your specific needs, whether that be in education, healthcare, mobility orcommerce.
• Use your buying power to encourage the businesses and public services that are rolling out sustainable ICT-enabled services to do more.

Please note: As with any research program looking to produce a viable forecast for a 15-year horizon,
our modeling is open to uncertainties and contingencies. We have tried to make our assumptions and thetechnical and policy requirements on which they rest as clear as possible (please see the appendix forfurther information) but we are fully aware that our scenarios remain only one of a broad range of possible trajectories.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –14

2 A triple win: ICT will deliver significant environmental, social and economic benefits
2.1

Introduction

This report is the third of GeSI’s in-depth analyses, since 2008, into the role ICT can play in helping to meet
one of the global economy’s most pressing challenges: sustaining economic growth while protecting theplanet. In order to achieve that, it is essential that we cut the historical link between every unit of additional
global GDP and the greenhouse gas emissions (CO2e) we emit in the process, economy wide. So far, thishas proved elusive.
In 2008, our report, SMART2020: Enabling the Low Carbon Economy in the Information Age, showed that
applying ICT solutions to a range of sectors could cut global CO2e emissions by up to 15% and save close
to $900 billion by 20207.
In 2012, our next report, SMARTer2020: the Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future, demonstrated
how the increased use of technologies like video conferencing and smart building management could cut
projected 2020 emissions by 16.5%, adding up to a total emissions reduction of 9.1Gt CO2e and to $1.9
trillion in energy and fuel savings. This was equivalent to more than seven times the ICT sector’s emissions
in the same period.
The core argument of this report, now looking to 2030, is that ICT can allow us to continue to grow economically while holding emissions at 2015 levels and generating numerous social benefits. By taking the
IPCC’s own (2014) “business as usual” scenario as a base (in which it predicts global emissions will riseby 11Gt by 2030) we find that ICT-enabled solutions rolled out over the same period can enable emissions
savings of 10Gt CO2e. When you add to this the 2Gt of abatement that the IPCC includes in its model (dueto its expectation of more ICT-enabled renewable energy on grids) this brings us to a total abatement
potential of 12Gt – or a 20% cut in global emissions by 2030, effectively decoupling economic growth fromemissions growth.
And part of this has been made possible by the falling emissions footprint of the ICT industry itself.
SMARTer2020 predicted that ICT emissions would rise to 1.27Gt CO2e in 2020, equal to 2.3% of global
emissions in 2020. Our research shows that ICT’s footprint could fall to 1.97% of global emissions by 2030,
due to a range of investments companies in the sector have been making to reduce their footprint and to
the expected increase in the efficiency of end-user-devices.
But this report goes further than purely modeling the environmental potential of ICT between now and 2030.
In fact it is the first of its kind to examine the potential economic and social benefits as well as the environmental benefits that ICT can bring people all over the world – in developed and developing counties alike.
This is what we call “the triple win” and the remainder of this chapter looks at the environmental, the social
and the economic benefits in turn.
The Digital revolution
Propelled by much greater access to broadband internet across the world and by the falling costs of smart
phones and end-user devices generally, we are witnessing nothing short of a revolution in the growth ofnew, disruptive business models. The pace of change is noticeable even since our last report in 2012. A
decade ago, few would have guessed that a technology firm would be able to become the largest hotelier
in the world within seven years without building a single hotel or guesthouse. Or that a technology start-up
could use a single smartphone application to build a $40 billion taxi business in six years without owning
one car.
And these trends are now extending out to the traditional public sector: healthcare, education and transport,
bringing huge opportunities in the way we interact with service providers and with each other. This is set
to accelerate.

7 SMART2020, published 2008, provided the following figures (in 2008 values): €553 billion ($872.3 billion) in energy

and fuel saved. http://www.smart2020.org/publications/
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –15

New generation
At the same time, as an increasingly affluent generation of consumers and citizens around the world becomes fluent with digital technology, even able to co-create their own solutions, it is becoming evident that
ICT can improve lives and empower citizens, from megacities to some of the most remote locations onearth.
ICT brings wider economic and social benefits
As we show in this report, ICT-solutions can help businesses around the world to continue to grow without
putting our environment at risk. Of course, there are policy mechanisms needed and we discuss what role
policymakers need to play later in the report, along with the actions businesses and consumers themselves
need to take.
But the good news is that ICT can do much more than generate revenue, cut costs and reduce emissions.
In the third part of our analysis, we show that ICT-enabled solutions can also vastly improve the lives ofpeople all over the world, from people living in some of the most remote rural villages in East Africa, totelecommuters living in an affluent metropolis.
By connecting the unconnected to the new economy, ICT can also contribute to addressing human development challenges like extreme poverty and a lack of access to essential services like healthcare, education and banking. With smartphones and broadband connections becoming ubiquitous, more and more
people will gain access to such services, effectively raising their health outcomes and their income potential.
At GeSI, we are struck not only by the potential revenue gains across all sectors adopting ICT but, as
importantly, by the variety of ways in which ICT can help meet specific development challenges and improve people’s quality of life. ICT will be a key technology to support the new sustainable development
agenda, by creating new opportunities and connecting the unconnected.
Importantly, SMARTer2030 represents a roadmap for GeSI’s member companies. Of course, the rate ofadoption of the potential benefits we set out here depends on a range of factors, including the degree towhich policymakers and consumers engage with the scale of transformation and drive through the changes
needed. But it will also depend, to a large extent, on the degree to which businesses recognize and harness
the opportunities we highlight. What we can say with certainty, though, is that through their own recent
practice, GeSI’s member companies have demonstrated that the possibilities our research has modeled
are far from pie in the sky. They are at hand today.
The structure of this report
We begin, in this chapter, by setting out the headline benefits that ICT can make across each of the metrics
we have examined: environment, society and economy. We explain how ICT can help decrease emissions
and lower resource-use across the global economy as a whole. We then look at how the solutions we haveprofiled can help boost household incomes, cuts costs and improve the quality of people’s lives in a rangeof different situations across the world. Lastly, we look at the general economic opportunities ICT-enabled
solutions can bring to raise revenue and cut costs for business and other organizations.
In Chapter Three we break our findings down into the eight sectors we examined for this report and, again,
describe how specific ICT solutions can improve environmental, social and economic outcomes across thesectors. The sectors we profile are: healthcare, education, building, agriculture, mobility, energy, e-business and smart manufacturing.
In Chapter Four we break down our analyses by geography, presenting findings on the environmental,social and economic benefits ICT can bring to meet specific challenges in nine countries, of very varying
incomes and social profiles. The countries we examine are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany,
India, Kenya, the United Kingdom and the USA.
Finally, in Chapter Five, we examine the role of three key stakeholder groups in speeding up the ICT
revolution and the roll-out of the solutions we have profiled: policymakers, businesses and consumers. In
each case we make specific recommendations for action.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –16

The report is illustrated throughout with relevant case studies of ICT solutions in action and there is a listof all the case studies, figures and graphs we present, as well as a breakdown of the methodology used,in the appendix.

2.2

Environment – Decreasing emissions and resource consumption whilst allowing for
growthGlobal abatement potential
We have found that by rolling out identified ICT solutions across the global economy, the world could cut
its global emissions by 12Gt CO2e by 2030 and promote sustainable economic growth. Figure 5 illustrates
the contribution to global emissions mitigation of the main sectors we have examined.
Figure 5: Environment - CO2e abatement potential by sector (2030)

12.1
1.8
2.0
2.0
3.6

2.7

Mobility1

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Buildings

EnergyICT-enabledsavings

1 Mobility solutions consider ICT-enabled improvements to private and commercial mobility and additionally consider the reduced need to travel from various sectors,
including health, learning, commerce, etc.
Source: WRI, IPCC, World Bank, GeSI, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

In the IPCC’s projected ‘business as usual’ scenario, global emissions are set to grow by 11.1Gt CO2e
between now and 2030 (from 52.4Gt CO2e in 2015 to 63.5Gt CO2e in 2030). We wanted to inject ICT
solutions into this scenario to find out what ICT-enabled savings alone could contribute to total emissions
savings before adding the potential savings the IPCC had included in its scenario. We find that the ICTenabled emissions reductions we have identified in this report are mostly not considered in the businessas usual scenario. Only 1.8Gt CO2e from integrating renewables into the grid are already considered in the
IPCC’s business as usual forecast for 2030. After removing 1.8Gt CO2e we find that ICT-enabled emissions
savings could reduce the IPCC’s business as usual forecast by 10.3Gt CO2e. ICT-enabled solutions are
therefore able to hold global emissions at 2015 levels.
Abatement potential per use case and sector
This report has analyzed the overall abatement potential of ICT by examining its impact across twelve ICT
use cases which can be summarized into eight sectors. Figure 6 shows the abatement potential for eachof these twelve use cases.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –17

Figure 6: Environment - CO2e abatement potential by use case (2030)

As shown, our analysis finds that ICT is likely to have the biggest impact through Smart Manufacturing,
Smart Agriculture, Smart Buildings and Smart Energy technology. By combining Smart Logistics, traffic
control & optimization and connected private transportation, mobility becomes the largest area of potential
impact. As the major impact from e-services is also mobility-related we have added this to mobility as well.
The sector by sector chapters later in this report provide further details.
ICT solutions can help cut 9.7 times more CO2e than they emit
Our analysis shows that ICT realizes a benefit 9.7 times higher than its own CO2e emissions and decreases
its own footprint over time to 1.97% by 2030 compared to 2.3% of global emissions expected in our lastreport for 2020.
SMART2020, published in 2008, estimated the ICT sector footprint to reach 1.43Gt CO2e by 2020, equal
to 2.7% of expected global emissions. Only five years later, SMARTer2020, revisited this estimate anddecreased the forecast to 1.27Gt CO2e by 2020, equal to 2.3% of global emissions. These revised estimates were based on actual energy efficiencies realized between 2008 and 2012 and based on updated
data for 2020. In our latest report, SMARTer2030, we estimate that the sectors’ emissions could be evenlower, reaching 1.25Gt CO2e in 2030 or 1.97% of global emissions. Our estimate considers actual trends
towards greater energy efficiency but also the existing commitments of leading operators to increase energy efficiency. Other studies consider various scenarios, including scenarios with significantly higher energy demand from ICT8.
A rapid increase in the adoption of devices like tablets and smartphones, as well as services like cloudcomputing, broadband networks and data centers, will result in additional emissions from ICT. Holding
down the ICT-sector’s own emissions as the number of devices increases is important and can be helped
by, for example, switching from large hardware like PCs and printers to smaller and more efficient devices
like tablets and smartphones and by bearing down on emissions from data centers. The switch to smaller
8

Andrae ASG, Edler T. On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030. Challenges. 2015; 6(1):117157. URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2078-1547/6/1/117
Copyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –18and more energy efficient end-user devices is particularly important, as nearly half the sector’s emissions,in the scope of this analysis, comes from “end-user-devices”, rather than from networks or data centers(see figure below).
Figure 7: Environment - ICT emissions footprint (2030)
ICT emissions*

A. End-user
devicesB. Data Centers

1.25
GtCO2e(1.97% of total
baseline)*

C. Networks

0.59
GtCO2e0.36
GtCO2e0.30
GtCO2e(47,2% of total)(28,8% of total)(24.0% of total)(Smart) Phones

Servers

Wireless

Tablets

Data

Home

PCs

Computing units

Enterprise

3D printers

Data Transport

Others*Accenture has included, where feasible, scope 1 (direct), scope 2 (indirect fromconsumption of energy), and scope 3 emissions (all others related). Baseline fixed at 63.5
GtCO2eq

Comparing ICT’s own footprint of 1.25Gt CO2e in 2030 with the 12Gt CO2e of emissions avoided throughthe use of ICT solutions demonstrates that ICT delivers a benefit 9.7 times higher. In other words, for eachton of CO2e used to power ICT, users can on average realize almost 10 tons of CO2e savings in 2030. In
our previous report, SMARTer2020, we found that ICT could cut CO2e by 9.1Gt in 2020 and create anenablement factor of 7.2. Our first report, SMART2020, published in 2008, had estimated the enablement
factor of ICT at 5.5 times ICT’s own footprint (see Figure 8).
Our preliminary analysis of ICT’s enablement factor in 2015 leads us to conclude that the ICT sector currently abates roughly 1.5 times that of its own emissions.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –19

Figure 8: Environment - ICT enablement factor (2030)

SMARTer
2030

SMARTer
2020(2012 report)

SMART
2020
(2008 report)

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

12.08
9.7x

1.25

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

9.10
1.27

7.2x

ICT-enabled
ICT-footprint

7.80
1.43

5.5x

Source: Source: WRI, IPCC, GeSI, SMARTer2020, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

ICT enables increased resource efficiency
ICT also offers environmental benefits beyond carbon mitigation, helping to reduce the consumption of
scarce resources and increasing resource efficiency. We find the most substantial additional environmental
benefits could come from agriculture, where crop yields could increase by 900kg per hectare; in energy,
where 25 billion barrels of oil could be saved across all the sectors we analyze; and in transport, where
135 million cars could be taken off roads. We also find that ICT could save over 300 trillion liters of water,
across the eight sectors as a whole.
Figure 9: Environment - Environmental benefits of ICT beyond CO2e (2030)

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –20

Solutions to electronic waste
One of the by-products of increased ICT adoption, of course, is electronic waste, so the industry, alongwith municipal and national governments, needs to develop solutions to encourage the reuse, resale, salvage, recycling or, at the very least, safe disposal of used electronics. In developing countries especially,
the illegal processing of e-waste can cause serious health and environmental problems. But in developed
countries too, it can present significant risks to workers and communities. Great care must be taken to
avoid unsafe exposure in recycling operations and the leaking of materials such as heavy metals fromlandfills.
Not only does e-waste form a health risk to people and the environment, it is also a significant waste ofincreasingly valuable resources. Finding more “circular solutions” like reusing, refurbishing, or recycling ewaste is critical to ensuring the reliable and affordable sourcing of materials and to reducing supply chain
volatility. Encouragingly, what some call circular business models are flourishing, enabled in many cases
by ICT. We profile some of these below.
Case examples of ICT solutions with environmental benefits
Connected Car – Solutions for Sustainability
Improving the efficiency of traffic, mobility and private transportation is one of the main ways in which major
issues such as CO2 emissions and air pollution can be reduced. Deutsche Telekom developed a Connected Car Solutions Suite for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) that can enable people to drive
their cars more efficiently and sustainably. Your ‘Connected Car’ can combine a range of smart driving
solutions including: Eco-drive, a coaching system for optimizing driver behavior; Car2x, a real-time guiding
system to anticipate the traffic environment; E-Call, an automatic emergency contact system; and Live
Traffic, a real-time information system on traffic jams and alternative routes.
These Connected Car solutions provide significant sustainability benefits, not only environmental, but alsosocial and economic. For drivers it can reduce annual CO2 emissions by 15.9% per car, save €237 peryear from reduced fuel consumption and 23 hours per year through reduced time in traffic. For the automotive industry, Connected Car solutions helps OEMs contribute to CO2 emissions reduction targets andhelps improve reputation as well as market position and sales. In terms of societal benefits, 16% of all
domestic traffic-related CO2 emissions could be avoided, equal to 2% of all domestic CO2 emissions. Furthermore, reduced congestion and traffic jams through ICT-enabled safer and smarter driving would reduce
asthma-related sickness days and as well as road accidents.

HydroPoint – Shutting down water waste through the Internet of Things
HydroPoint is a leading 360° smart water management solution targeting the area of greatest waste inurban water use: landscape irrigation. Garden or landscape irrigation in homes and commercial buildings
is most often still irrigated manually or by controlled timers, without much regard for how much water isactually needed at that point in time. HydroPoint developed WeatherTRAK, a system that uses a machineto-machine solution connecting the irrigation controller and sensors to a cloud-based platform for analyzing
climate and determining water needs. Each site is individually monitored and controlled to determine theexact amount of water needed at that patch of the garden or landscape at that point in time.
By providing the wireless network, customized network access and a self-service management platform,
AT&T supported HydroPoint in reducing water waste and saving money for all HydroPoint subscribers. As
a result of using this ICT-enabled water management solution HydroPoint customers were able to savemore than 15 billion gallons of water, hundreds of thousands of man hours, 62 million kWh of energy andachieve $137 million in cost savings in 2014 alone.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –

21

2.3

Economic – ICT is good for business, creating new revenue opportunities and reducing costs

By 2030, 75% of the global population will be connected via smart devices and broadband internet, providing growth opportunities not only in the ICT sector itself, but in a wide range of other sectors too.9 By
connecting 2.5 billion extra people, ICT is good for business, creating new revenue opportunities and generating significant cross-sector cost savings.
The digital revolution is changing the way people think about living, working, shopping, traveling and eating.
Innovative new business models are disrupting existing businesses, delivering exponential growth withasset-light business structures. Significant growth opportunities are created by companies like Airbnb andUber, using only technology to build their businesses without owning any of the physical assets found in
traditional models. As digital density increases through rapid smartphone penetration, new business models unimaginable a decade ago have the potential to transform our lives and to drive strong growth opportunities across the different sectors. ICT’s capacity to disrupt the status quo and to transform business as
we know it remains unprecedented.
Figure 10: Economic – Global economic benefits of ICT-enabled solutions (2030)

1
0.4 Tr

US. Dollars in ICT revenues from connecting theunconnected

1.6 Tr

US. Dollars revenues realized by the ICT sector
across the twelve use cases analyzed

9.4 Tr

US. Dollars in sustainable economic benefits realizedby other sectors leveraging ICT (leading to total of$11.4 trillion USD in economic benefits when adding
the $2 trillion USD realized by the ICT sector)

4.5 Tr

US. Dollars in additional revenues for use casespecific stakeholders (global figure from the 12 use
cases)

4.9 Tr

US. Dollars in cost savings* for use case specificstakeholders (global figure from the 12 use cases)

2

3* Global result includes costs savings coming from translating to US $ the fuel, energy,
water and paper savings in the applicable Use Cases

Eight sectors will benefit most from ICT
Overall, ICT could generate $11.4 trillion in sustainable economic benefits annually, comprising $6.5 trillion
in revenues and $4.9 trillion in cost saving opportunities.
We estimate that $2 trillion of these new revenues are generated by the ICT sector itself and $4.5 trillion
are enabled by ICT across the eight sectors analyzed. We expect that the estimated $2 trillion in ICT sector revenues will be made up of $0.4 trillion from connecting 2.5 billion additional people to the knowledge
economy and $1.6 trillion from ICT services delivered to the eight sectors analyzed, including e-commerce, E-Work solutions, etc. The other $4.5 trillion will come from ICT-enabled services such as Smart
Agriculture solutions, additional e-commerce revenues, Smart Energy solutions, etc.

9 European Internet Foundation: The Digital World in 2030, p10

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –22

Figure 11: Economic – ICT-enabled revenue opportunities across sectors (2030)

ICT sector

Stakeholders
0.8
0.8 0.0

1.8

0.5

0.4
0.2 0.2

0.7
0.5 0.2

6.5
0.4

2.0

0.6

1.9
0.1
1.8

1.2

Agriculture

ECommerce

4.5

EnergyE-WorkNew
Other
sectors connections

Building

Total
2030

Creating cost savings
ICT will also help save close to $5 trillion of costs across the global economy, made up of $1.2 trillion fromreduced electricity expenditure, $1.1 trillion from reduced fuel expenditure, and another $2.6 trillion fromother savings including on tuition, water, paper, and food waste.
Figure 12: Economic –ICT-enabled cost saving opportunities (2030)

Electricity

Fuel

1.2

1.1

Other (e.g.,
tuition, water)

Total savings
2030

2.6
Source: WRI, IPCC, Gartner, FAO, GeSI, Accenture analysis & CO2 models

4.9

Return on investment
ICT-enabled solutions also provide profitable investment opportunities, as investing in ICT can generatesignificant value for money. For our report, we have analyzed investment opportunities across four sectors
in more detail to better understand the dual return: financial return and sustainability benefits achieved.
Based on actual Accenture projects delivered to improve performance by installing smart solutions acrossbuildings, manufacturing, agriculture and logistics we have summarized typical investment and sustainability results in the figure below.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –23

Figure 13: Economic - Return on investment: Case examples

Automation
systems for
Smart
Buildings

Monitoring andforecasting
systems for
Smart
Agriculture

Monitoring andsmart
production
system for
Smart
Manufacturing

Monitoring androute
optimizing
systems for
Smart Logisticcompanies

Net Present Value of USD525k –implementation
USD575k
costs + obtainedsavings in energy
consumption

USD1.20Mn –USD1.40Mn

USD1.0Mn –USD1.1Mn

USD800k –USD850k

Initial investment
and installation
costs estimation

USD250k

USD465k

USD254k

USD290k

Break even obtained 2 - 3 years
from the model(project starting togive benefits)

3 - 4 years

1 - 2 years

2 - 3 years

Maximum yearlyenabled revenues /savings

USD160k USD170k

USD230k –USD255k

USD180k USD190k

USD155k –USD165kCO2e abatement per
USD invested

1 ton per 750
USD invested

1 ton per 420
USD invested

1 ton per 250
USD invested

1 ton per 360
USD invested

Source: Accenture case analysis (sanitized project results)

For example, building one vehicle assembly plant with smart manufacturing solutions can produce a netpresent value (NPV) of $1-1.1 million by 2030 with an initial investment of $254k. Breakeven levels can beobtained within one to two years and the average annual electricity saving generated from this investment
is projected to be between $180k and $190k. The resulting CO2e abatement in tons per dollar invested is
1 ton per $420 invested.
Case examples of ICT solutions with economic benefits

Networkfleet – Improving accountability and controlling costs
Public transportation departments face a number of challenges overseeing the management of massive
fleets with limited funds while answering to both elected officials and state taxpayers.
By employing Verizon’s GPS-driven Networkfleet solution across 2,500 Arkansas State Highway andTransportation Department (AHTD) vehicles, AHTD was able to improve accountability and achieve costsavings. By reducing unnecessary idle time and miles driven, AHTD saved nearly $500,000 in bulk fuelexpenses in the first year. In addition, reduced maintenance costs and other operational efficiencies added
to the total savings. Moreover, better tracking abilities enable the department to operate more proactively,
allowing dispatchers to direct dump trucks, snowplows, and other vehicles to emergency situations faster.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –24

Surrey Police – Enhancing safety and efficiency while saving money
Surrey Police has delivered substantial savings in the running of their ICT services. However, due to diminishing returns Surrey Police was challenged to deliver more efficiency savings whilst the demands for
new technology continued to drive end-user demand ever higher. The ICT challenge was to deliver current
hosting services more cheaply without compromising on security.
A “platform as a service” developed by BT allowed Surrey Police to create a new, secure and virtual platform in BT’s secure cloud. This highly secure cloud-based solution encompassing 24x7 proactive service
monitoring and round the clock protective monitoring allowed the police force to enhance their operational
efficiency while generating cost savings.

2.4

Social – Boosting incomes, cutting costs and improving lives

Connecting the Unconnected – how ICT can benefit society
Although extreme poverty (people living on less than $1.25 a day) has decreased from 52% in 1981 to
17% today, we need to go further as we progress towards a projected global population of 8.3 billion people
in 2030.
The good news is that ICT can provide a rapidly growing population with access to essential services likehealthcare, education and banking in a way that is affordable to even the lowest income groups. As extreme poverty decreases, and smart devices become cheaper, ICT becomes increasingly affordable topeople in both the developed and developing world. Our research estimates that, by 2030, ICT could connect 2.5 billion currently unconnected people via smart devices, providing access to services with huge
potential to improve their lives. ICT access in the developing world is growing fast, with around 80% of the
2.5 billion additional connections by 2030 projected to come from emerging and developing countries. By
2030, ICT could provide access to E-Health services for 1.6 billion people, engage almost 450 million ELearning participants and save 254 billion hours across different industries (see Figure below).
Figure 14: Social – Social benefits of ICT-enabled solutions (2030)

For consumers, ICT can enable three basic types of benefits: First, provide access to improved services
for increased convenience, participation, etc. Second, provide access to e-services that allow consumers
to reduce their expenditure and third, provide access to e-services that allow consumers to increase theirincome. The figure below highlights the biggest benefit for each sector analyzed. For example, the mostsignificant benefit E-Health can deliver is increased convenience whereas the biggest benefit of E-Learningis the opportunity to increase earnings potential and open up new job opportunities for a person with an edegree.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –25

Figure 15: Social – Social benefits across sectors

ICT can help to raise income opportunities
ICT solutions can drive income opportunities for people across the world, in particular, we find, through ELearning and Smart Agriculture.
Increased access to innovative and affordable E-Learning opportunities, accessible remotely, can increase
education and literacy levels and generate an additional income of $0.6 trillion, according to our research.
Incomes could rise by 11% on average for those who participate in E-Learning degrees, which could beobtainable, by 2030, in even the most remote places in the world.
At the same time, Smart Agriculture can boost the incomes of farmers by increasing land or crop yield andreducing resource inputs. As real-time data analysis of soil and livestock, fertilizer, nutrition and wholesalemarket prices rolls out across the developing as well as the developed world, farmers will be able to produce more and waste less. By generating an average yield increase of 897kg per hectare of land, ICT canhelp farmers increase their average annual income by $300.
ICT also has great potential to reduce food waste across the supply chain by making food chains moretransparent and providing real-time information on individual products. Less food waste in distribution,transportation and the consumption phase means more food to market, potentially better nutritional outcomes and reduced emissions due to avoided waste.
Additionally – and critically for human development – ICT can improve financial inclusion and drive entrepreneurship through making banking more accessible.10
ICT can help to cut costs
ICT can help to make essential services more affordable. In particular, health and education are two areas
where ICT can cut costs and thereby make access more affordable. For example, a study on the wider
socio-economic impact of mobile health found significant cost saving opportunities, including the potential
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –26

of mobile health to reduce overall elderly care expenditure by 25% and to cut 50 to 60% of the costs related
to hospital nights and re-hospitalizations for patients with chronic conditions.11
For E-Learning, our modeling shows that typical tuition could be reduced by $1100 per year across asample of E-Learning offerings, compared to traditional campus-based courses.
ICT can increase convenience and wellbeing
The developments that ICT offers in the transport and mobility sector can bring significant benefits in termsof convenience and well-being. Through optimizing traffic flows, influencing driver behavior, encouraging
car or ride sharing and smart logistics solutions, ICT helps people and products move from A to B in themost efficient, clean and safe way. Through E-Work alone, telecommuters can save 100 hours annually.
And across all sectors analyzed for this report ICT can help save 250 billion hours allowing people to haveadditional time at their disposal.
Beyond efficiency gains, ICT can deliver improved wellbeing and participation. For example, our researchfinds that, by 2030, an additional 1.6 billion people across the globe could benefit from E-Health solutions.
The social benefits of ICT across different development phases
ICT solutions can have a variety of impacts depending on the wealth of the country. In developing countries, poverty and a lack of access to energy, education and healthcare are important issues that ICT canhelp address.
With megacities on the rise, especially in China and India, urban conditions, infrastructure limitations, andinsufficient and expensive housing all form growing challenges. ICT can contribute to addressing them by
optimizing traffic flows and urban mobility, providing the efficient transport of goods, reducing air pollution
in urban areas and lowering both the footprint and the operational costs of real estate. A further challengein emerging countries is ensuring sufficient access to food and fresh water. ICT-enabled Smart Agriculture,
smart buildings, smart manufacturing and energy solutions can all help increase productivity while reducing
inputs.
In developed countries, on the other hand, social participation is generally quite high, with most people
already having access to basic services. In these countries, quality, time-efficiency, comfort and convenience are the key aspects to improving quality of life. ICT can contribute to this across a range of sectors.
Case examples of ICT solutions with social benefits
Connecting communities around the world
BT is using ICT and expertise to connect communities around the world to the internet. Worldwide,around 4 billion people are currently unconnected to the internet, of whom more than 90% live in the developing world. Being connected to the internet allows people to increase their social participation andenhance their livelihoods through access to key services such as education, healthcare or social contacts and communities.
Using the BT infrastructure, skills and expertise, BT aims to connect people worldwide and provide themwith access to the societal benefits of ICT. For example, through its Connecting Africa program, BT has
connected 20 locations in nine African countries to the internet via satellites. The Connecting Africa Medical Centre program is using ICT to help seven SOS Children’s Villages’ medical centers improvehealthcare provision to around 100,000 people. The plans are to connect six remaining centers by theend of 2015.
By connecting the unconnected and leveraging their skills and knowledge of how to get the most out oftechnology, BT is able to help provide essential services that could save lives.

10 The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Financial Services, Telenor Group, 2011
11 The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Health, Telenor, 2012

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Emergency.lu - Revolutionizing disaster-response communications through Aid
When natural disasters occur, poor communications infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges facing
emergency relief agencies. Aid organizations can dispatch field teams within hours, but without reliablemobile and Internet services, aid workers struggle to share situation reports and ensure that food, medicines, surgical teams, and search teams get where they are needed most. If local networks are down,
precious hours are lost, and search missions are negatively affected.
The Government of Luxembourg created a satellite-based telecommunication platform that can be set up
in any disaster zone within 24 hours. The hub provides high-quality internet connectivity, voice over IP,
tracking and tracing applications, mapping services, and low-bandwidth versions of two Microsoft tools—
Skype and Lync—which aid workers can download onsite. The service has transformed disaster-response
communications, helping aid agencies from around the world begin rescue and relief operations.

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3 Connected world: Eight sectors will profit mostIn this chapter, we introduce the eight sectors we have profiled and the specific ICT-enabled use-cases
within them. We show how each use-case can bring environmental, social and economic benefits and we
explain how. As noted in the introduction, the ICT use-cases we have analyzed in our modeling can besummarized into the following eight sectors: health, learning, buildings, food, mobility, energy, e-businessand manufacturing. In what follows, we look at each sector individually.

3.1

Health – The doctor in your pocket

Emergence of E-Health – The Context
In the past decade, emerging and developed economies alike have undergone rapid demographic change,
with the rise of a new middle class in developing countries perhaps the most striking development. Whilea rising global middle class has formed the fastest growing income segment, the fastest growing age cohort
has been – in many countries – citizens above the age of 65.12 These changes are accompanied by arange of healthcare challenges, including “lifestyle diseases” like obesity and diabetes to conditions associated with old-age, like dementia and arthritis.
Given these trends, access to quality healthcare is becoming increasingly important for developing anddeveloped countries. While developing economies require reliable and affordable healthcare services, developed markets need ways of controlling rising healthcare costs, for example by increasing efficiency
across health and social care services.
Alongside changes in demographics and disposable incomes, we can also see behavioral shifts taking
root, from a growing awareness of the need to maintain healthy lifestyles to a steadily rising willingness(among both individuals and governments) to invest in preventative care. But this doesn’t make the twin
challenges facing the global healthcare sector any less formidable.
We believe addressing these challenges will require a paradigm shift in the healthcare sector. An effective
healthcare regime must:
•
•
•
•
•

Strengthen preventative healthcare
Enhance early diagnostics capabilities for prevalent diseases
Aim to increase life expectancy and enhance quality of life
Reduce costs at all stages by using limited resources more efficiently
Empower people with the knowledge and tools to understand and manage their own healthDespite rising health awareness, most emerging economies have been struggling with a lack ofaccess to quality healthcare.

The good news is that progress towards these objectives can be achieved by injecting cutting edge ICT
into conventional healthcare practices, through E-Health.

12 http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/01/30/global-population/

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What is E-Health?
E-Health seeks to facilitate a seamless flow of information across different stakeholders (such as
healthcare professionals, patients etc.) through the efficient use of technology.
Importantly, it seeks to do this in a commercially viable and scalable way. Cutting edge E-Health solutions
share the following characteristics:• Efficient monitoring and distribution of information for professionals and consumers, especiallythrough the use of smart devices (e.g. wearable health-monitoring watches or mobile phones) connected to the internet• Improved public health services through improved access to continuing education, training and awealth of relevant data and in-the-field support for health workers• Informed and empowered patients, enabled to manage their own health through on-demand access to health analysis and information about trends and treatments relevant to their specific conditions
E-Health is about transforming conventional healthcare systems with the help of ICT to makethem more reliable, accessible and inclusive while making processes more efficient.

More generally, E-Health solutions provide a platform for information dissemination, interaction and collaboration among institutions, professionals, health providers and patients.

Future of E-Health
The E-Health industry is expected to grow rapidly through a significant infusion of disruptive technologies,
bringing about a fundamental shift in the delivery model for healthcare by 2030. These technologies arepoised to transform the role of patient engagement from being ‘dependent’ on a professional’s knowledge
and expertise, to being more ‘self-directed’, with the ability to manage one’s own health.
Figure 16: Health- Future of E-Health: Technology vision for 2030

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By 2030, E-Health is expected to transform a patient’s role from being ‘dependent’ to being ‘selfdirected’.

The patient’s perspective – a doctor in your pocket
With the increase in processing power and the advent of wearable technology, smart devices will play anessential role in the healthcare sector. Devices like smart phones or smart-watches, combined with healthoriented applications and biosensors will be able to monitor health conditions (keeping both users/patients
as well as doctors informed in real time), make insightful recommendations and even permit the remotediagnosis of diseases. This will allow patients to better understand and manage their own health.
From patients’ perspective, E-Health will consist of three key shifts – (i) anytime, anywhere; (ii)nothing about me without me; (iii) access to care for all.

The resulting increases in the availability of data in the healthcare sector will also help scale solutions fasterand make them available in regions where conventional systems cannot be efficiently established. For
example, it is difficult to set-up a hospital facility in a remote African village but much easier to set-up avideo-conferencing clinic, enabling patients to be consulted remotely.
Furthermore, the costs of DNA and pathogen sequencing are expected to drop significantly by 2030, allowing more and more patients to have their DNA or pathogens sequenced. This, combined with accessto a large database securely storing the data, will enable doctors to use data analytics to arrive quickly at
precise diagnoses and to tailor treatments accordingly.
The combination of these disruptive technologies: wearable tech, big data analytics and DNA and/or pathogen sequencing is expected to revolutionize the healthcare industry by improving preventive care, accessto healthcare, early diagnosis and by enabling fully personalized treatment plans.
The healthcare providers’ perspectives - value-based personalized medicine
In addition to revolutionizing the availability of healthcare services for patients, E-Health will significantly
benefit healthcare providers as well (such as doctors, hospitals, pharmacology firms and health insurers).
Access to bespoke data will generate the greatest impact for healthcare providers.
Indispensable features of E-Health when viewed from their point of view include:
1.

Access to data•••

Access to electronic health records, standardized data metrics and indicators
Access to worldwide databases and big data analytics via Artificial Intelligence (supercomputers,e.g. IBM’s Watson)
Increased cost and time efficiency through implementation of smart administration for patient anddata management•
From the perspective of healthcare providers/payers, E-Health will bring three key benefits – (i)access to data; (ii) personalized medicine; (iii) value-based reimbursement.
2. Personalized medicine•••

Remote patient-doctor interaction, allowing for personalized consultations despite long-distances
between the parties
Access to a patient’s real-time health data, providing immediate insights and personalized, automated and remote diagnostic capabilities
Advanced technologies like gene therapy and genome engineering, allowing doctors to provide tailored treatments

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3. Outcome-oriented reimbursements•••

Reimbursements of healthcare providers shifting from fees for health services to a model focusedon health-outcomes
New players entering the health insurance market offering incentives for preventative behavior
Transformation in the role of patients and physicians resulting in “consumer driven health”

The benefits of E-Health
We have quantified the CO2e abatement potential of E-Health by analyzing the effects of four key technologies:• Remote Diagnostics – which involves using web-connected devices to capture and communicate
health-related data amongst stakeholders.
• Videoconferencing, which makes communication between service seekers and providers seamless.
• Date storage in electronic form which makes information portable and secure.
• Augmented Reality, which provides assistance during surgery and can help improve medical training, among other things.
The resulting emissions abatement effects of ICT are mainly from reduced travel and decreased use ofphysical healthcare facilities, leading to 0.007Gt CO2e in the UK alone. Data extrapolated from GDP, population and healthcare access data suggest that the global figure could be as high as 0.205Gt CO2e.
However, the sustainability benefits of an ICT-enabled healthcare sector are not limited to emissions abatement alone, they also include further economic and social benefits, as shown below.
$66 billion of cost savings: Taking 2030 as an example, E-Health has the potential to save over $66
billion by freeing up space, with 271.4 million square meters of urban space released for alternative use.
Improved health services for 1.6 billion people: By 2030, ICT enhanced health services will be available
to 1.6 billion people.

E-Health is a clear example of a widespread positive gain powered by ICT. There is potential toreduce emissions and generate much higher rates of access to healthcare.

The diagrams below explain in more detail the types of benefits that E-Health services can help provide
across the environment, the economy and society, resulting from reduced travel and reduced space requirements.

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Figure 17: Health - Benefits from E-HealthA study commissioned by Telenor on the wider socio-economic impact of mobile health found more farreaching cost saving opportunities, including the potential of mobile health to reduce overall elderly careexpenditure by 25% and to cut 50 to 60% of the costs related to hospital nights and re-hospitalizations forpatients with chronic conditions.13

Humber NHS Foundation Trust goes mobile and spend more time with patients
A mobile solution for NHS Foundation Trusts, contracted from BT, transforms patient care and the working
lives of clinicians, while at the same time saving the Trust money. The mobile solution uses an innovative
software from Belfast company, TotalMobile, to give healthcare professionals on the move access to realtime information where and when they need it.
The mobile healthcare technology enables staff at the Trust to provide a range of mental health, community, learning disability, and addiction services. Via the mobile solution, the staff are able to access patient
records, view schedules and appointments and update notes while on their rounds, using a mobile deviceof their choice, such as a tablet or smartphone.
The new mobile solution ensures that clinicians have the most up to date information at their fingertips
whether in the office, on the go or at the patient’s home. It streamlines the Trust’s existing processes,
reducing the need to return to base, saving time, paper and money, and allowing more time to be spent onpatient care.

13 The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Health, Telenor, 2012

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HipLink consolidates critical health information in a highly secure manner
Hospitals are committed to providing the best clinical care to patients with complicated health conditions.
The ability to focus on direct patient care, while reducing alarm fatigue and protecting patients’ personal
health information is critical to clinicians. Improving communications between hospital and clinic locations
can increase efficiency and support centralized medical functions, which is central to quality patient care.
HipLink® presented by AT&T mobilizes a new bedside monitoring system, allowing clinicians to quickly
respond to critical alerts they receive on their smartphones. Security for these devices is enhanced through
AirWatch from AT&T, a mobile device management solution. An AT&T Virtual Private Network seamlessly
connects hospital’s locations, allowing for a cost effective means to offer centralized support for billing andpharmacy services. An AT&T Network-Based Firewall service helps to protect the security of patient information.

3.2

Learning – Education on your terms

Emergence of E-Learning – The Context
With the size of the global middle class predicted to reach nearly five billion people by 203014, the demand
for access to affordable education will continue to increase. Better access to education and learning isessential in lifting people out of poverty, providing income opportunities and improving their quality of life.
However, many people in developing countries, especially those living in remote areas, do not yet haveaccess to education and are missing out on the opportunity to improve their lives. In addition, the risingcosts of university and college education both in developing and developed countries are barriers to better
education.
Education should become increasingly accessible and affordable in order to raise earning potential and quality of life for people globally.

While access to education is a challenge in the developing world, a second trend in the educational sector
emerges in both developed and developing countries. Learners are increasingly looking to expand theboundaries of the education system, demanding new learning experiences that are at once affordable,
flexible and engaging. The generation born in the age of technology (the “millennials”) especially welcomes
online learning platforms as a substitute for, as well as an addition to, traditional teaching methods.
With global education spending expected to reach $107 billion in 201515, E-Learning – the digitalization oflearning – is gaining ground as an important way to overcome educational barriers and to open up an arrayof learning opportunities across the globe. An increasing number of learners can access educational content and join Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) from any location in the world, at any time.
Given these trends, the race is on to see how ICT can best be harnessed to improve peoples’ access to
education in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable way.

14 http://www.reuters.com/middle-class-infographic
15 Global Industry Analysts (2015), Global Outlook on the Distance Learning Industry

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What is E-Learning?
E-Learning is learning conducted via smart devices and broadband internet. E-Learning solutions such as
open community platforms, instructional games (“gamification”) and virtual reality, have the potential tocreate personalized learning ecosystems that are affordable, engaging and sustainable.
E-Learning enabled through ICT can be used to augment traditional learning in schools or companies andit can promote lifelong learning for a huge range of people in sectors from healthcare to agriculture. As
smartphones and mobile broadband become increasingly ubiquitous, ICT-enabled education is opening
up vistas undreamed of even ten years ago, transforming life-chances in the process.

Future of E-Learning
The future of E-Learning will be collaborative across institutions, breaking down the barriers in our current
system. Education will become a lifelong journey in which learning is personalized to specific needs and it
will be genuinely captivating.
The future of E-Learning for students.
ICT has the potential to transform the definition of knowledge delivery from “static classroom” to “anytime
anywhere” through remote access from any connected smart device. Several tools and applications like
videoconferencing, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) and E-Learning apps can all facilitate remotelearning.
In the future, learning will be more fluid and collaborative, it will be fully personalized, locationindependent, and available at any time provided in a way that triggers engagement and creativity.

Not only will learning become more mobile and location-independent, we will also see people determining
the content and direction of their own education. The self-directed character of online learning offers students the ability to combine content across institutions and education stages. For example, high school,
university and job training no longer need to be separated but could be integrated into one self-directed
lifelong learning process which you control from your smart device.
As programming, computing and computer science become increasingly important it is critical that young
people learn not only to consume technology by using a phone or a computer, but also to become creatorsof technology themselves. ICT is itself leading the way here through various new platforms and techniquesthat enable people to learn how to code and to understand the principles behind the digital revolution.

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Figure 18: Learning – Future of E-Learning: Technology Vision for 2030

The future of E-Learning for providers
Teachers will also benefit hugely from the increased roll out of E-Learning tools and applications. Accessto digital materials will enable teachers to create more effective learning methods, deliver remote classes,
extend their teaching beyond the classroom, collaborate with other instructors and provide more appealing
ways of communicating and delivering information.
There will also be more sophisticated ways of tailoring content to students’ needs. Advanced data on a
person’s preferences, progress or activities could help teachers better understand learning gaps, whilesmart portfolio assessment could collect and manage all data on a student’s learning progress, acquired
skills and competencies and enable teachers to assess them more accurately.
Likewise, virtual communication platforms could stimulate cross-disciplinary and inter-institutional researchacross borders and even languages.

The benefits of E-Learning
Our research shows that by reducing the need to travel to physical locations, E-Learning could mitigate
0.1Gt CO2e per year globally. The US, China and India represent 85% of the total abatement potential of
E-Learning, mainly due to their population size and the huge distances students need to travel to get toclass. To achieve its potential, however, significant infrastructure enhancements and technology innovations are required in providing global access to high-speed broadband (over 50 Mbit/s) and to smart devices.
In addition, the sustainability benefits of E-Learning go well beyond emissions abatement. They also include further environmental, economic and social benefits, as shown below.
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91 million tons of paper saved: By 2030, replacing hard copies of study materials with electronic books
has the potential to save over 91 million tons of paper.
5 billion liters of fuel saved: Reducing the need to travel to education facilities could save 5 billion litersof fuel.
$1.2 billion of total savings potential: By 2030, E-Learning is expected to lead to $1,181 billion in costsavings due to a decrease in expenditure per student. For example, corporate learning through Massive
Open Online Courses (MOOC) could save businesses at least 50% in costs compared to conventional
instructor-based training.16 Further savings come from reduced fuel usage for traveling to and from training
sites ($5.4 billion in fuel savings) and from the reduction of paper use ($24 billion of savings on paper).
450 million potential E-Learning participants: Our analysis has found that E-Learning advancement canoffer learning opportunities to almost half a billion students undertaking their education on virtual learning
platforms.

Figure 19: Learning – The Benefits of E-Learning

Skype in the Classroom – inspiring the next generation of global citizens
Microsoft’s Skype in the Classroom is a free global community connecting students, guest speakers andmore than 100,000 teachers from 235 different countries in 66 different languages. The program offers ashared learning experience by bringing a world of new ideas into the classroom, helping students discover
new cultures, languages and concepts, all remotely. Through this program teachers are able to inspire thenext generation of global citizens with innovative learning experiences through online collaboration, games,
guest speakers and a fantastic game called Mystery Skype.
With Skype in the Classroom, teachers can offer blended learning by adding interactive and digital components to their classroom teaching. They can provide computer science education and bring it to life bytalking to tech professionals via Skype, or inspire literacy and design by scheduling authors, illustrators,
publishers or entrepreneurs to talk to their class over Skype. Student learning no longer has to be limited
16 Towards Maturity (2014), In-Focus: Lessons from MOOCs for Corporate Learning

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by physical, economic or cultural boundaries. By providing access to a wealth of global content and resources, Skype in the Classroom is a strong example of how ICT-enabled solutions can help enhancequality of life by providing creative learning opportunities and experiences at low costs.

3.3

Building – Smarter homes, smarter offices

Smart Buildings– The Context
As urban populations grow rapidly, the demand for additional housing and commercial real estate is on therise. However, the construction and operation of buildings remains highly resource and energy intensive,with buildings accounting for around 40% of global energy consumption17.
The effects of increased urbanization need to be managed carefully from an environmental as well as asocial and economic perspective, so that ICT-enabled smart building solutions can quickly gain ground asenablers of buildings that are energy and resource efficient.
Alongside constructing new ICT-enabled Smart Buildings to meet the demand of the growing urban population, another key challenge will be to optimize the efficiency of existing buildings. Many economies inboth the developing and developed world still have a very long way to go to retrofit ageing housing stockand commercial property to improve energy efficiency.

What are Smart Buildings?
Smart Buildings can be described as a confluence between architecture, urban planning and ICT. The
principle components of Smart Buildings are automation systems, sensors, integration into Smart Grids via
smart meters, energy use analytics, forecasting and the better detection of faults through the use of monitoring technologies. For instance, data collected via smart meters and other smart home solutions can becommunicated to users via their smart device, allowing users to monitor their energy use, control building
functions such as lighting, cooling or heating, and detect faults or abnormalities early – all remotely. These
solutions could be applied to large commercial and industrial complexes or smaller homes and condominiums, helping to drive the more efficient use of resources and energy.

17 Accenture Study on Smart Building Solutions http://www.accenture.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/PDF/Accenture-Smart-Build-

ing-Solutions-Brochure.pdf.
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The Future of Smart Buildings
By 2030, we expect Smart Building solutions to provide domestic and commercial users with better “insightand control” and an enhanced living and working experience whilst saving resources, energy, time andmoney. We look at each of these benefits below.
Insight and Control
ICT-enabled solutions combined with user-friendly consumer interfaces like apps and dashboards will beable to enhance peoples’ awareness of their energy and resource consumption. These apps can be accessed remotely via smart devices and allow people to respond to changes or problems even if they are
miles away. Besides using data analytics for predictive maintenance, real-time monitoring technology canalso send notifications to the user’s smart device when an appliance or light is left on or when somethingis broken or needs replacing.
The available data can also be used by urban planners, utilities companies and architects to understandchanging demand patterns and respond better, reducing costs to the consumer.
At the same time, Smart Building solutions open up significant cost cutting opportunities for companies.
For example, Microsoft evaluated smart building applications from three vendors across 13 buildings within
the company’s main 118-building campus. The technology firm’s experience so far demonstrates that asmart building solution can be established with an upfront investment of under 10% of annual energy expenditure, with an expected payback period of fewer than two years. By collecting and analyzing millionsof data points every day, the company has been able to embark on multiple improvements that are reshaping the way its buildings are managed and is reducing its energy consumption by 15-30%.18
Resource Efficiency
Smart building solutions will enable energy and resource savings both in existing buildings as well as newly
constructed buildings. Automated building heating, cooling, ventilation and lighting control systems are
already gaining ground, based on motion and light sensors, turning lighting off when there is enough daylight, or turning heating off when no one is around. It is also becoming possible for people to integrate theirpersonal calendars into the system to enable it to adjust to their specific schedules automatically. In addition, smart technologies will also offer users full integration with the local smart grid, which permits on-site
generation of renewable energy and the selling of energy back into the grid.

18 Accenture (2011), Energy-Smart Buildings

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Figure 20: Buildings - Future of Smart Buildings: Technology Vision for 2030

The benefits of Smart Buildings
We have quantified the global emissions abatement potential from Smart Buildings and, according to ouranalysis, the global emissions abatement potential from Smart Buildings comes in at approximately 2.0Gt,
or 17% of the total potential of the eight sectors we have examined. The US and China are the countries
with the highest abatement potential from Smart Building Solutions followed by Germany and the UK.
Besides the emissions abatement potential, there are other benefits from Smart Building solutions,
including:• 5 billion MWh of energy saved• 300 billion liters of water saved• $360 billion of cost savings
Improved quality of life: Smart Buildings could vastly improve people’s quality of life by tailoring theirhomes to their needs, saving them money and freeing up time spent on repairs.
The diagram below depicts the types of benefits that Smart Building Solutions can help accrue acrossenvironment, economy and society.

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Figure 21: Buildings - Benefits of Smart Building

Smart Metering – Household solution to encourage more efficient energy use
Smart solutions for the measurement and control of energy flows help to use energy more efficiently. Consumers need to be able to see how much energy they are using and when, so that they are motivated to
cut back their consumption. Smart Meters create the basis for this.
Additionally, Smart Meters will be a key prerequisite for restructuring the energy market. By providing demand transparency they can support the integration of renewable energy into the grid. The German federal
government is paving the way for large-scale installation, making smart metering a business area withstrong development potential for Deutsche Telekom.
Deutsche Telekom’s solution helps households to visualize real-time energy demand and thereby helps
consumers to better understand their actual energy consumption. By using Smart Meters, households can
reduce their electricity consumption by up to 8 percent. According to our calculations, installing Smart
Meters in 7.8 million households in Germany by 2020 would reduce CO2e emissions by up to 1.2 million
metric tons annually.
Enetune-BEMS – Central energy management system
In Japan, sustainability and resource conservation are key topics of interest. In 2014, Date-City in Japan
adopted Fujitsu’s Energy Management System to centrally manage and improve energy use of public
facilities in the city. This cloud-based energy management system, called Enetune-BEMS, allows for central management, integration and visualization of multiple business sites and facilities. Through functions
such as demand management and remote and automated control of energy consumption, the systemallows for energy conservation measures across public facilities.
The system allows the local government to effectively manage the energy use of 45 public facilities andschools in the city and enables the city to share information on power usage and energy saving measures
between public officials and citizens. By centralizing information on public energy use, the Enetune-BEMS
solution provides Date-City with an effective tool to implement energy saving measures, limit power consumption during peak periods and reduce CO2e emissions through energy savings.

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41

3.4

Food – Produce more and waste less

Emergence of Smart Agriculture – The Context
By 2030, around 8.3 billion people will require water, food and shelter, placing increasing strains on a finite
amount of land, fresh water reserves, and other natural resources. While modern agricultural methods
increase crop yield, they often harm land, biodiversity and local water sources. In addition to this, the agriindustry is responsible for a large proportion of global emissions.
Our key challenge is to feed a growing population from a limited amount of land, water and otherresources while reducing negative environmental impacts and food waste.

Exacerbating these challenges is the fact that over one third of all food produced worldwide is wasted,either during production and distribution, or after sale. Food waste does not only cost us $750 billion a year,
it also reduces the amount of food available to people worldwide.
To further complicate the picture, increasing occurrences of climate change-related extreme weather
events have the potential to cause severe shocks to global food production, creating a growing need forresilient and environmentally responsible agriculture, as the World Bank has outlined in its path-breaking
report “Turn Down the Heat”.
In dealing with these challenges, ICT has a very important role to play. Use of technologies like satellite
imaging, geographic mapping, sensor-based technologies and advanced data analytics could lead to practices that are more productive, sustainable and precise. Some of these technologies are already transforming the agricultural sector while others, when scaled up, have the potential to truly revolutionize how ourfood is grown, distributed and consumed.

What is Smart Agriculture?
Smart Agriculture is about making farming more efficient, through techniques like geographic mapping,sensors, machine to machine connectivity, data analytics and smart information platforms. Feeding more
people while wasting fewer resources requires traditional agricultural methods to become more intelligent,
productive and sustainable using ICT.
Smart Agriculture means using disruptive ICT solutions to make food production more efficientby increasing crop yield, reducing waste and easing access to markets.

While many Smart Agriculture technologies are game changing, not all are available at commercial scale
yet. According to research by Accenture for Vodafone’s Connected Agriculture report in 201219, most Smart
Agriculture applications are currently only partly implemented, if at all, and mainly in developed countries
by large farms. The vast majority of smallholders are yet to gain access to these technologies. However,
we expect that in a decade’s time, these and many other technologies will penetrate deeper into global
food supply chains.

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Future of Smart Agriculture
What we need, to facilitate global Smart Agriculture, is comprehensive access to high-speed internet andto affordable smart devices. Although not available everywhere today, these technologies are expected tobe near ubiquitous by 2030.
ICT will allow farmers to increase resource efficiency, productivity and resilience and will help reduce food waste along the supply chain.

While these technologies are basic requirements, Figure 22 lists disruptive technologies in four key areasthat will drive transformation, from enhancing productivity and resource efficiency, to building shock resilience and reducing global food waste.

Figure 22: Food – Future of Smart Agriculture: Technology Vision for 2030

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –43Precision agriculture
Precision agriculture technologies help farmers to ascertain the exact amount of water, fertilizer, or other
input that is needed for specific crops or patches of land at any point in time. This is enabled throughMachine-to-Machine connections, sensors and satellites, and strengthened further through the genomic
sequencing of plants and seeds.
Data and information management
Advanced analytics on weather data and real-time information platforms will be indispensable in informing
farmers of potential weather changes or threats, and can raise early alarm signals of environmental shocks.
Real-time information communicated to them through dashboards on their smart device can enable farmers
to respond and build resilience by proactively managing detailed weather information.
Automated farm management
Advanced farm management technology, meanwhile, brings us closer to almost fully automated farm management and the optimization of processes from back-office administration, to automated adjustments in
irrigation and fertilizer. The automation of conventional farm management enhances productivity, as it frees
up more time and increases resource efficiency through better response rates to incoming data.
Reducing food waste
ICT is also having a major impact on the ability of farmers, consumers and buyers alike to trace the foodthey buy and sell. To optimize processes and reduce food waste at all stages, tracking and tracing systems(like RFID and GPS) allow for remote and real-time tracking of food as it is produced, stored and transported. In developing countries, digital markets and real-time information will help farmers to match demandwith supply and – thereby – to reduce food waste at its source. By 2030, all food products could be individually tagged, allowing for customized expiration dates based on real-time information on a single product’s
location, freshness, and source.

Sustainability Impacts of Smart Agriculture
By increasing resource and energy efficiency across applications, Smart Agriculture technologies and practices show strong potential in terms of emissions abatement. By 2030, we estimate the amount of CO2ethat could be avoided through Smart Agriculture at 2.0Gt CO2e per year. This is composed mainly fromenergy savings and the more efficient use of water and fertilizers.
Smart Agriculture also provides significant economic and social benefits, mainly through additional revenue
opportunities and cost savings. For example:• Smart Agriculture solutions could generate almost $2 billion of additional revenues to companies
across the sector and increase the average annual income of farmers by $300 by 2030.
• Cost savings through reduced water usage could also amount up to $110 billion by 2030.
The diagram below depicts the types of benefits that Smart Agriculture practices can help accrue acrossenvironment, economy and society.
ICT-enabled agricultural practices provide a variety of environmental, social and economic benefits, ranging from resource efficiency to resilient systems and increased food security.

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Figure 23: Food - Benefits of Smart Agriculture

Farm Cloud Computing - Transforming farming by exploiting ICT
Aeon Agri Create is an ‘ICT Farming’ enterprise, created in partnership with Fujitsu, managing 15 farms
covering over 200 locations across Japan. Aeon Agri Create was established with the aim to apply ICT todevelop and share farming expertise so that people without much farming experience could deliver results.
The Aeon farms use Fujitsu’s Akisa Cloud Computing service as the basis of their daily farm operation andmonitoring. Workers are supplied with smart devices from which they can check operations, monitor crops,
or check pesticide or fertilizer use while also keeping track of operational costs. Through GPS technology
the collected data can be connected to a specific farm and a specific patch of land within the farm, allowing
workers to detect and record abnormalities, insect damages, pests or diseases.
Farming plans, crop yield forecasts, observations, harvest data and other relevant information is integrated
into a central database, used to analyze and improve productivity. For example, collected data on theJapanese mustard spinach plant suggested that crop yields per hectare could be improved by up to 33%
through optimal harvesting time and applying the right amount of sunlight and heat. This applied use of
farm-generated data helps the company to support strategic crop planting, optimize production, and reduce
the required energy and resources. In fact, time savings of up to 80% can be achieved using the cloudcomputing service. Moreover, as the data generated is sharable, Aeon Agri Create aims to extend its
application of ICT farming to 3000 subcontracted farmers, forging win-win relationships with its partners.
Robust Agriculture – Achieving resilience through ICT
Recent years have shown an increase in climate-change related extreme weather events with negative
impacts on sectors such as agriculture. Developing agricultural farms and practices that are resilient tothese events is essential in feeding a growing population. ICT-enabled solutions can significantly contribute to developing such resilience by allowing for timely response to changes in climate and weather conditions. Fujitsu’s Akisai Food and Agriculture Cloud solution is a good example of a data-driven solutionthat can support farmers by making the farming environment and production processes more visible
through ICT. The solution uses sensors and cloud technology to measure and control the environment infields and in greenhouses.
In Japan, Fujitsu has built a fully enclosed factory for growing plants using the Akisai cloud solution.
Through data-driven knowledge and insights, the solution allows for seasonal crops to be grown year
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round, growing of vegetables without chemicals or pesticides, and contributing to a more stable and efficient farm environment that is not at the mercy of nature. By aggregating, analyzing and using diverse
data from farms worldwide, ICT solutions such as Fujitsu’s Akisai, can help resolve global-scale foodshortages and improve efficiency and resilience in the agricultural sector.

3.5

Mobility – Reaching your destination, not a dead end

Smart Mobility and Logistics – The Context
Transportation and logistics are vital drivers of economic activity in developed and emerging markets
alike, but existing infrastructure is increasingly proving to be insufficient to cater to the growing demand
for the transportation of people, goods and materials.
By 2030, there will be about 2 billion vehicles on the road and a need for an additional 15 billion
km of paved roads.

Across the globe today, there are one billion vehicles on the road. As a result of globalization and of a
rapidly rising middle class this number is expected to double by 2035. To support growth of this kind, wewould need roughly 15 million km of extra roads20. This means, more vehicles, more roads, more miles
traveled – resulting in additional congestion, fuel consumption, pollution and emissions. Likewise, rail capacity is going to rise. By 2030, about 100,000 kilometers of additional rail track will be needed20.
Although growth in mobility is desirable, it may lead to negative environmental or social consequences if
done in an irresponsible way. At the moment, global logistics operations are highly fragmented and inefficient, with unused or redundant capacity across supply chains. These inefficiencies are expected to worsen
as the number of people and products transported increases, resulting in significant waste of fuel, energy
and materials. Therefore, businesses are looking for ways to improve efficiency across entire logistics
chains.
There are opportunities to create a mobility and logistics sector that is much more sustainable. Enhanced
connectivity through ICT could significantly increase efficiency while reducing congestion, emissions, andresource consumption. Innovative technologies like electric vehicles and driverless transportation could
make personal mobility more sustainable and efficient. In addition, intermodal transportation and vehicle
sharing could help reduce congestion and miles traveled. Through the Internet of Things, any product,
vehicle or load unit can be connected to another, creating a system that enables products to be transported
in the safest and most efficient way.
Smart Mobility means the use of ICT to reduce the need for travel or, where unavoidable, reduce
its impact. Smart Mobility can apply to both people and freight.

20 IEA Report on Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements (2013): https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TransportInfrastructureInsights_FINAL_WEB.pdf

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What is Smart Mobility and Logistics?
Smart Mobility and Logistics fall into three categories: Connected Private Transportation, Traffic Control
and Optimization and Smart Logistics. Each of the three areas have separate applications, but all three
can help make transport more sustainable and efficient.
Traffic Control & Optimization is facilitated through connected smart sensors, location-based applications and intelligent infrastructure, all working together to make traffic, driving and parking more efficient.
Connected Private Transportation means connecting people and vehicles that have similar origins ordestinations. For example, smartphone enabled car-sharing or car-pool platforms can help travelers meeteach other at designated spots to travel together.
Smart Logistics is about connecting vehicles, products and load units, thereby improving route and load
optimization and reducing the amount of waste in the system.
Smarter transportation is important because of the embedded convenience, reliability and efficiency it brings to travel and logistics

The Future of Smart Mobility and Logistics
Smart Mobility and Logistics Solutions will be an important part of the solution to global mobility challenges.
The ICT solutions that will optimize private mobility, traffic control and logistics, for example, are also likely
to have a disruptive effect on the industry, challenging incumbents to change their ways while new actors
play a growing role.
According to Gartner and Accenture Strategy research, the role of disruptive ICT in transportation will mature in about a decade. While the common use of less advanced technologies like location sensing is likely
to become commercially viable by 2017, complex solutions like public telematics, connected infrastructure
and connected or driverless vehicles may take a decade before becoming widely available. More specifically, we foresee the following developments in the three main categories of Smart Mobility and Logistics:
Connected Private Transportation
ICT-enabled car and ride sharing will allow for much better utilization of the existing fleet of cars, lowering
overall fuel consumption and emissions. Car sharing can also reduce the need for vehicle ownership,providing additional benefits like saving time and money.
‘Driverless vehicles’, where all vehicle driving functions are taken care of by an onboard computer, are also
likely to significantly impact private transport, disrupting the personal transport industry in the process.
Furthermore, drivers and passengers are likely to have increasing access to connected services in theirvehicles – enabling enhanced communication, navigation and entertainment capabilities, and contributing
to individual safety as well as to traffic control and route optimization (see below).
Traffic Control & Optimization
ICT solutions can significantly support the controlling and optimization of traffic. They can contribute tosafety and convenience through, for example, collision alarm and lane-keeping-systems, but also connect
private vehicles to smart roads, lights and traffic control systems.
Connectivity between cars, roads, lights and control systems allows for the gathering of real-time information on traffic conditions. Traffic control and optimization platforms can use this data to generate insights
for drivers, such as the optimal driving speed to avoid congestion, the best route to avoid a traffic jam or
the nearest available parking spot. Improved information, prediction and planning will allow for more efficient driving, routing and parking, leading to fewer accidents and, of course, a reduction in congestion andemissions.
Smart Logistics
ICT-enabled solutions like advanced data analytics, telematics and sensor technology allow logistics companies to increase both the flexibility and the efficiency of road, air, train and marine freight by connecting
the dispatching office with entire fleets, individual vehicles, roads, load units or even specific products.

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Tools like fleet management and route optimization systems can increase operational efficiency and planning while reducing costly redundancies, empty runs, outages, accidents, or damage to goods. Connected
devices can also support the tracking and monitoring of items’ location and status, even allowing for flexible
and individual rerouting during a particular journey.
Figure 24 summarizes the potential of ICT to lead to a faster and greener logistics sector.

Figure 24: Mobility - Future of Smart Mobility and Logistics: Technology Vision for 2030

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Sustainability Impacts of Smart Mobility and Logistics
The transition to smart, sustainable mobility brings a number of sustainability benefits. Efficient public andintermodal transport systems save commuters’ time, generate economic benefits, and reduce emissions.
For example, Mexico City is estimated to recover $141 million in economic productivity from just one of sixlines of its Metrobús BRT system.21
Our research shows that the emissions savings from the three use cases analyzed, comprising Connected
Private Transportation, Traffic Control & Optimization and Smart Logistics could abate 2.6Gt CO2e, representing 21.5% of total ICT-enabled abatement potential by 2030. Furthermore, if we consider the reduced
need to travel arising from changing practices across other sectors such as health, learning, work andcommerce we can add another 1.0Gt CO2e emissions reduction from the mobility sector.22
The US, China and India are the countries with the highest abatement potential for traffic control & optimization, with China accounting for almost 50% of the abatement potential for Smart Logistics.
ICT-enabled mobility solutions provide significant benefits, as illustrated here:
750 billion liters of fuel savings: 236 billion liters of fuel could be saved in 2030 through traffic control
and optimization, and 220 billion liters of fuel through connected private transportation. By 2030, smart
logistics solutions could generate savings of 267 billion liters of fuel and 3.8 billion kg of wood.
$1 trillion of avoided costs: In economic terms, traffic control and optimization could translate into $409
billion of avoided costs and connected private transport to around $611 billion of avoided costs. Various
smart logistics processes and methods could also add an additional value of around $174 billion by 2030
to the economy as a whole.
Around 42 billion hours saved in 2030: Efficient traffic management solutions and high quality navigation
systems could save around 42 billion hours by 2030. As a result of car sharing, 135 million cars could betaken of the road by 2030. And for society at large, the various Smart Logistics solutions we have modelled
could significantly reduce negative externalities like noise, traffic congestion, and health and safety risks,leading to a safer, cleaner and more peaceful urban environment.

21 World Resource Institute (2015), Who Needs Cars? Smart Mobility Can Make Cities Sustainable22

In our report we have highlighted the emission reduction where they first occur, e.g., the reduced emissions fromfewer trips to healthcare facilities are covered in the report chapter on health.
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Figure 25: Mobility - Benefits of Smart Mobility and Logistics

Networkfleet – BLS puts the brakes on rising fleet management costs with Networkfleet
BLS Trucking, one of the largest independent delivery services companies in the Midwestern US, wasstruggling with rising fuel expenses, vehicle theft, outages and logistical inefficiencies. In order to addressthese challenges, BLS adopted Verizon’s Networkfleet, a wireless fleet management system that merges
diagnostic monitoring with GPS-based automatic vehicle location technologies. The system provided BLS
with an effective way of tracking and monitoring every single vehicle in their fleet and collecting information
on location, idle time, odd-hour usage and fuel consumption.
By making the entire fleet visible and more transparent, Networkfleet helped BLS save an estimated$188,000 in fuel costs during the first year by eliminating unauthorized usage and unnecessary idle time.
In addition, it enabled the company to perform predictive maintenance, reduce breakdowns and repair
costs, prevent theft, and protect drivers from wrongful claims.

CityNext - A strong transit system for a livable and sustainable cityMore than 50% of the world’s population now lives in urban areas and this share is expected to grow.
Traffic congestion already is a major challenge and as urban populations increase, this problem is set to
get worse. Public transport systems are key in addressing this challenge and help to reduce urban air
pollution and CO2 emissions. Cities increasingly rely on public transportation systems to help citizens andvisitors to get where they need to go. Working with Microsoft, city-owned bus operator Helsingin Bussiliikenne Oy (HelB) in Helsinki, Finland, expanded its data warehouse solution to collect and analyze datafrom bus sensors to reduce fuel consumption, improve driver performance and make bus rides smootherand safer. The installed bus sensors generated more than 4 million lines of data every day, reporting onfuel usage, acceleration, speed, engine temperature, brake performance and GPD location for each driver,route and vehicle. The ICT-enabled system combined data across all of the operator’s 400 buses.
Careful analysis of bus data helped HelB to reduce its fuel consumption across its entire fleet by 5%,
helping the city reduce its carbon footprint. In addition, using this public transport data solution, companies
can monitor driving behavior and incidents and can share this information with drivers in order to improvecomfort and safety of them and their passengers. In the case of HelB, driver satisfaction was increased by
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7%. The solution also allowed the company to monitor mechanical conditions, identify issues and problems
and even allows for predictive maintenance of vehicles.
Smart Parking – Innovative parking space optimization pilot project
Together with partner BT and the Open University, Milton Keynes Council in the UK decided to accelerate
its development into a smart city by initiating a pilot project aimed at citywide parking space optimization.
Hosted by BT, the established Milton Keynes Data Hub collects and analyzes parking sensor data sent toreceivers on lampposts via innovative wireless technologies. As one of the fastest growing cities in the UK,
Milton Keynes is now able to expand within local infrastructure constraints by identifying free parking
spaces and sending information to roadside displays and smartphone apps to guide vehicles towardsthem.
In addition to real-time information on parking availability, the sensors also provide data on average parking duration, allowing the city to adjust parking restrictions and better meet customer needs. At any point
in time there are about 7000 free parking spaces available, but without smart parking guiding people tothem, at least 12, 000 more spaces will be needed by 2020. Fully deploying this ICT-enabled smart parking solution could provide capital savings of least £105 million to this city alone. In addition to economic
benefits, the solution also contributes to 50% less traffic congestion and reduced fuel use and vehicle
emissions.

3.6

Energy – Integrating renewables into the grid

Smart Energy – The Context
The energy sector is currently undergoing fundamental changes that are driven by a variety of trends.
Firstly, conventional energy sources are contributing significantly to climate change through emissions. As
a result, companies are under pressure to find more efficient and alternative ways to generate reliableenergy and to bring down associated emissions.
The energy sector needs to realign its business model from being production-centric to serviceoriented. Forward looking utility companies are focusing on innovation.

Secondly, new energy sources are disrupting the business models of conventional utilities. Micro grids andenergy storage solutions are gradually reducing the need for transmission and distribution. Although, thesesolutions are yet not commercially viable in all markets and locations, they are forcing utility companies torethink and realign their business models. What is more, conventional Transmission and Distribution (T&D)
networks are plagued with ageing or insufficient infrastructure and disparity between supply and demand.
Lastly, the traditional T&D based approach has not always proven to be sufficient in providing reliableenergy, especially in developing countries. In fact, 1.3 billion people across the globe still do not haveaccess to electricity at all23, keeping the issue of energy access, security and reliability high on the agenda
of developing as well as developed countries.
The good news is that ICT-enabled technologies can help to create a global energy system that is resilient,reliable and secure. ICT is a key driver behind improving energy efficiency in grids and accelerating thedecarbonization of the energy sector. In fact, 92% of utilities executives believe that advanced data analytics will have the greatest impact on their business up to 201924.

23 World Energy Outlook 2014, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase/.
24

Accenture’s Digitally Enabled Grid Program, 2014 http://www.accenture.com/us-en/Pages/insight-trends-toward-digital-gridvalue-analytics-infographic.aspx
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What is the Smart Energy?
Smart Grids are able to establish a better balance between energy demand and energy supply. In the
future, Smart Grids will be able to run themselves by collecting data with smart metering devices, conducting advanced data analytics, and acting on a continuous stream of data and information from all assets in
the grid connected to each other via the cloud.
Making grids smarter means balancing energy supply to existing demand, integrating renewables
and enhancing grid efficiency.

Besides managing demand dynamically and allowing for improved load management, ICT-enabled solutions can better integrate renewables into the grid. Smart Grids are much better at coping with intermittent
and distributed energy than current grid networks which often waste excess electricity on the system or failto balance demand to meet supply shocks – leading to brownouts.
On top of all of this, Smart Grids can help to enhance grid efficiency through streamlined operations andthe constant monitoring of assets resulting in fewer losses during transmission, storage and distribution.
While there are numerous benefits to be derived from Smart Grids, they will come online gradually. Technologies like meter data management, intelligent electronic devices (like fridges and other white goods),
advanced metering infrastructure will become scalable in about five years. Technologies like advanced
distribution management, demand response management, energy storage, micro grids and home energy
management are likely to become commercially scalable in about a decade.25
It will take between 5 to 10 years for smarter grids to become fully integrated at scale.

Future of Smart Energy
Smart Grid technologies have the potential to create a global energy system that is resilient, reliable andsecure. With demand response technologies able to reduce peak loads and exponential improvements inenergy storage technologies, ICT is a key driver behind improving energy efficiency in the grid and accelerating the decarbonization of the energy sector.
Advanced analytics and big data solutions play an important role in interpreting data and create
real-time system insights to support decision-making.

The future of Smart Energy for providers
From a provider’s perspective, features of Smart Grid solutions include:
1. Distributed and variable power generation• Distribution grid management and sensor technologies allow for variable and renewable energy
generation and distribution by improving asset management and optimizing distribution control• Automated information on and control over supply (generation) and demand facilitates distributed
generation• Quickly developing battery technologies and uptake of electric vehicles could facilitate variable generation and distribution through energy storage
2. Real-time response to demand changes, predictive analytics and forecasting••

Advanced analytic tools including descriptive analytics and visualization, predictive analytics, optimization, simulation, and application-specific solutions, contribute to better matching of supply anddemand and optimizing load management
Smart metering and intelligent substations allow for the collection of vast amounts of data as input
for improving grid operations

25 Gartner Hype Cycle for Smart Grid , Accenture Digital

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•The Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine technology through the deployment of intelligent
sensors and energy management technologies are key enablers for utilities’ transformation to information-centric digital businesses• Demand response technologies allow for real-time system response to changes in demand, andhelp flatten out the demand curve and reduce system load
3. Reliable infrastructure resilient to changes• Asset Performance Management helps utilities better predict equipment failure• IT/OT convergence improves reliability, renewable integration and environmental stewardship• Interconnection with other operating systems allows for direct trading between regions, enhancing
resiliency to peak loads or shortages across borders• Advanced analytics used to predict demand, renewable generation, weather, wind etc. allows for amore reliable and resilient energy system
The future of Smart Energy for “prosumers”
The conventional energy model has operated since its inception with consumers at one end and energy
generators at the other. By 2030 we estimate that this model will change and that “prosumers”, i.e. consumers who are also producers of electricity, will become common features of the new, smart, energy
landscape. The key will be to ensure that all these micro-generators have proper access to the grid.
Mobile technologies allow prosumers “Access and Insight” into locally generated energy, thereby enablingthem to make informed decisions about energy production and consumption. ICT-enabled micro-grids allow households, neighborhoods, and even towns and cities to share energy production and consumption
capacity, generate local energy and become self-sufficient. Machine-to-machine communication and general connectivity in the system creates a two-way flow of information, connecting all components, assets
and other hardware in the system. This allows for the development of an efficient, decentralized grid - a
Smart Grid.
However, the success of Smart Grids depends on the development of well-defined ICT solutions, such as
the capabilities of advanced analytics and big data solutions to interpret data and create real-time systeminsights to support decision making. Furthermore, technologies that allow for variable and decentralizedenergy generation, storage and distribution need to be further advanced.

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Figure 26: Energy - Future of Smart Energy: Technology Vision for 2030

Sustainability Impacts of Smart Energy
Our analysis shows that global emissions abatement from Smart Energy represents 1.8Gt CO2e or 15% of
the total abatement potential contributed by the eight sectors in this report. Additionally, 1.6Gt CO2e can be
cut from the energy sector due to decrease in energy production. However, this potential has been considered in those sectors that realize the reduce energy through improved demand and supply matching (75%
Smart Building and 25% Smart Manufacturing)
The US and China represent almost three quarters of the total abatement potential, mainly due to their size
and the size of their current energy footprint.
From a sustainability perspective, an ICT-enabled Smart Energy can bring huge environmental
benefits, saving up to 6.3 billion MWh of energy.

If rolled out comprehensively, Smart Grids could significantly heighten the sustainability of our electricity
networks, cutting costs and creating new revenues. As outlined below:
6.3 billion MWh of energy savings: According to our modeling, energy production could be reduced by
20% - a saving of 6.3 billion MWh - as a result simply of better demand management and the integrationof renewables into a more flexible system. The energy lost during distribution could be reduced by 5%
owing to improved grid efficiency.
700,000 km saved grid: ICT-enabled Smart Grids are expected to make energy generation and distribution more cost-effective, avoiding the need to lay over 700,000 km worth of grid.

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$810 billion of additional revenues: The evolution of Smart Grids could create $2.1 billion in additional
revenues for the ICT sector and $811.3 billion in revenues for renewable energy companies.
Universal access to energy: There are numerous social benefits associated with the smart grid, especially in developing countries. These include, for instance, universal affordable access to energy as well asheightened energy security. It is also likely that Smart Grids could lead to higher levels of social cohesion
as communities cooperate on new energy solutions.
As with so many of the solutions we have outlined in this report, ICT also has the power to vastly empower
the consumer by placing him or her at the center of their own energy system, rather than the end of it, asa distant end-user in a clunking machine. We also foresee huge cost savings to individual households fromtransparency and from greater and more obvious incentives to become energy efficient.
The diagram below depicts the types of benefits that Smart Grids can help accrue across environment,
economy and society.
Figure 27: Energy - Benefits from Smart GrideSmart Systems – Making cloud technologies the brain of the modern smart grid
Microsoft eSmart Systems is a cloud-based automated energy management system that employs sensors,
Smart Meters and software to forecast consumption, reduce outages, and monitor assets to improve energy efficiency. There is a wealth of data available to utility companies on the energy grid, but the challenge
is to make sense of this data and turn it into actionable information. eSmart Systems provides a central
way of bringing this information together and enables energy companies to deal with complex challenges
such as balancing peak loads and supply and demand, as well integrating renewable energy sources andtechnologies into the grid.
Managing data and information and upgrading the grid to better balance peak loads is highly costly. eSmart
Systems provides a cloud-based and cost effective way of using data to optimize existing grids for energy
efficiency, allow for predictive maintenance to reduce outage and continuous monitoring of all assets. Thissolutions helps energy companies save time, money, and energy and reduces CO2 emissions associatedwith these energy savings.
eSmart Systems is aimed at utility companies looking to improve efficiency. All that is needed to startrunning the brains of the smart grid is an internet connection.
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Smart grid - An electricity grid that thinks for itself
Improving the efficiency of existing electricity grids is essential in providing reliable power to a growing
population, especially in countries like China with a rapidly growing middle class. As a quickly developing
economy, China has started to prioritize clean energy and CO2 emissions reduction by developing anenergy system that is efficient, reliable and environmentally responsible. To address the challenges of ourtime, next-generation power networks need to facilitate distributed and renewable energy sources, behighly automated and exploit the Internet of Things.
In line of this aim, China Southern Power Grid, providing electricity to 230 million people, has partneredwith Huawei in piloting a smart grid empowered by wireless broadband. As the first 4G TD-LTE enabled
smart distribution network, it features automatic distribution and measurement, as well as video surveillance of the distribution network and emergency communication. This ICT-enabled smart grid does not
only enable energy savings and reduced emissions, but also saved China Southern Power Grid around
5% in costs compared to their previous solution. Moreover, this next-generation grid solution increases
power supply reliability and lays the foundation for smart homes.

3.7

Work and business - The impacts of E-business on working, banking & shopping

The Context – ICT is reshaping individuals’ work, banking and consumption practices
ICT solutions have already started to revolutionize the way people work, do business and shop. This will
only gain in momentum as more people come online.
In retail, more transactions are now occurring online and retail e-commerce sales worldwide reached $1.2
trillion in 2013. A growth rate of nearly 20%, with the majority of growth coming from emerging markets26.
The banking sector has also been an early adopter of online technology and the associated services are
now nearing maturity. However, around 2.5 billion people around the world still go without a bank account27
and the financial inclusion of such a large group remains a key challenge for mainstream banking.
By 2030, ICT solutions will transform the way in which individuals manage their shopping, banking and work activities. Mainstream transactions will be increasingly virtual and more and more
people will use ICT to undertake them.

More generally, many organizations are preparing to transform the way their workplaces are run. Early
adopters have set up teleworking for employees, giving them the freedom to work from a remote location
while helping the employer save on the costs of office space.
The conventional way of doing business involves high-street or out-of-town shopping, banks opening
branches and employees commuting to work in the rush hour. This is a high cost, high emission and increasingly time-wasting set up.

26 Source: eMarketer (2014)27 http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/06/opinion/banking-the-unbanked-mobile-money/

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What is E-Business?
Simply put, E-Business is conventional business undertaken on virtual platforms instead of in-person.
For example, in retail, e-commerce means online shopping through secure, cashless, gateways.
In the financial sector, e-banking means providing banking products and services through electronic delivery channels like the internet or mobile banking, including the use of mobile money.
E-Business, in simple words, is the sale of products or services using internet as a platform andcomputerized devices as points of sale.

For organizations, E-Work, also known as telework, is the use of cloud-based platforms, connections andsmart devices to facilitate and speed up daily office work between co-workers in different locations.
Figure 28: E-Business – Future of E-Work, e-commerce and e-banking: Technology vision for 2030

The use of technology for transforming conventional business practices will help decouple
growth from resource consumption.

The Future of E-Business
It is likely that the full, global, roll-out of E-Business at scale will take another decade. However, according
to Gartner and Accenture, technologies like mobile commerce, e-invoicing and e-payments could reachglobal commercial scale in 2017. Nevertheless, it could take until 2025 before every workplace in the world
is fully digitally enabled.
By 2030, ICT solutions will enable white-collar workers to work from any-where, anytime and on
any device.

Below, we describe more specifically the main developments anticipated in the three main dimensions ofe-business.
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E-commerce
Integrated multichannel infrastructure: ICT solutions will enable retailers to build integrated infrastructures that deliver a seamless, more sustainable, customer-centric shopping experience across multiple
channels.
New online shopping features will include, for example, customizable designs, virtual sizing for clothes aswell as virtual shopping assistants that will be able to make recommendations based on previous purchases.
Retail 3D printing: The 3D printing of bespoke items will allow immediate access to goods in all markets.
In fact, it might even be developing countries that see the fastest growth of 3-D printing.
Delivery on demand: As internet coverage and smartphone penetration increase, more and more customers across the world will use mobile apps to buy goods and services. And Delivery on demand will only
be aided by the smart logistics solutions detailed in the chapter ‘Smart Mobility and Logistics’.
According to Accenture, E-commerce transactions are likely to increase by 50% by 2030.
E-Banking
Online/mobile banking: Online banking and banking through smart devices will mean the inclusion of
millions of additional people in the financial system, providing previously unbanked citizens with the benefits of modern consumer finance. Simple as well as elaborate banking services will make it easier for theformerly excluded to obtain a credit-history, providing the basis for large service providers (operating tohigher quality standards) to replace the kind of non-mainstream lenders that have so far dominated developing markets and which tend to offer very high-interest loans. In this way, ICT can help more peopleborrow at sensible rates with all the economic and social benefits this brings.
By 2030, digital banking and retail business models will deliver more sustainable, customer-centric, cross-channel shopping experiences.

Digital wallet (“mobile money”): Electronic payment systems will eventually make cash redundant, increasing individual security and, quite possibly, reducing fraud. Money transfer systems via mobile phones
such as M-Pesa (Vodafone Money Transfer) already enable millions of people to send and receive money(person-to-person transactions) and make bill payments (consumer-to-business transactions) without having a bank account. Users need only a mobile phone, not a bank account.
E-Work
E-Work offers to significantly improve people’s quality of life, reducing stress and allowing a more flexible
work-life balance. Instrumental technologies here include:
Telework (“mobile workplace”): The advance of collaboration tools is already permitting teleworkers towork remotely from anywhere. Telework can also help previously marginalized workers like those withdisabilities or those with caring duties to take part in the economy in a way that makes the best of theirabilities. Likewise, for employers, online collaboration tools allow them to hire workers with the best skills,
independent of their location.
Virtual business meetings: Virtual meetings, leveraging videoconferencing and augmented reality technology, are increasingly able to replicate the benefits of physical meetings, saving time and emissions fromtransport

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The Sustainability Impacts of E-Business
The E-Business solutions we have discussed in this chapter make up 6% (0.6Gt CO2e) of the total abatement potential contributed by the eight sectors covered. This includes:
Savings of around 165 billion liters of fuel
Savings of 388,854 tons of paper
105 billion hours of time saved
Figure 29: E-Business - Benefits of E-Business

Dynamic Workplace – A virtual workplace solution
Provided by Deutsche Telekom (DT), Dynamic Workplace is a user-friendly cloud-based workplace allowing access to virtually any application through a simple web browser. The solution is compatible with any
type of device such as notebooks, tablets and smartphones, and is delivered in a secure fashion from a
private cloud. Using Dynamic Workplace allows any employee to access all the files, applications andsoftware that they need to work at their convenience from home, a coffee shop, an office abroad or any
other environment. The solution is offered on a simple user interface across all devices and provides aself-service portal with integrated workflows.
For a typical company, DT’s Dynamic Workplace solution helps employees reduce time spent on commuting to work by on average 56 hours a year. In addition, the solution helps every employee to save over€250 per year due to reduced commuting. For companies, Dynamic Workplace offers significant benefits
in terms of emissions reduction, employee cost savings and higher employer attractiveness. In fact, per
year a company employing around 35,000 people can save 16,000 tons of CO2e emissions through reduced travel and achieve €15 million in cost savings through reduced idle time and sick days.

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59

3.8

Manufacturing – Resource efficient and customer centric

Smart Manufacturing – The Context
Recent technological developments in the scope of the Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine connectivity have been described as a “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. This is by no means an exaggeration.
By 2030, the 4th industrial revolution, also known as the ‘Industrial Internet of Things’ will transform traditional factories into high performance, fully optimized plants.

This revolution, is enabled by Cyber-Physical Systems, also known as “Industry 4.0” or as “The Industrial
Internet of Things (IOT). The IOT is made up of a combination devices connected to each other via thecloud, in the context of manufacturing this would be a combination of Smart Machines, Smart Materials
and Smart Products, all of which are interconnected and generate continuous data that is collected, processed and analyzed in a central location. Making optimal use of this generated data can help traditional
factories increase in productivity, quality, and production flexibility, while reducing their environmental footprint, energy and other resource usage.
Although the benefits of ICT powered manufacturing are widely accepted, the most recent technologicaldevelopments are far from mainstream. A recent Accenture survey in this area showed that a little over athird of companies currently apply automation technology. This points to the current low rate of ICT adoption among manufacturers. Several technological barriers must be overcome before a truly smart manufacturing operation can be realized.
When organizations manage to overcome these barriers, ICT powered Smart Manufacturing can enable
innovations like virtual manufacturing, customer-centric production, 3D printing and virtual production networks, and circular supply chains for resource efficiency to become commonplace.

What is Smart Manufacturing?
Smart Manufacturing is the application of advanced communications systems to conventional manufacturing processes, making them more flexible, efficient and responsive. There is a range of options available
to manufacturers to radically overhaul their current model by making it much more responsive to individual
customer needs on the one hand and resource efficient on the other. Making our manufacturing “smart”
effectively transforms factories from traditional cost centers into high-performance plants, fully optimized intheir use of direct material inputs as well as their use of energy and water.
Smart Manufacturing can be defined as “the intensified application of advanced intelligence systems” that create a fully digital value chain.

Gartner and Accenture Strategy research suggests a timeline of 5 to 10 years for Smart Manufacturing tobecome fully integrated across operations and industries. Data analytics and cloud computing, on the other
hand, are already commercialized.
More complex applications, like 3D printing, drones and robotics and augmented reality devices, could takemore than a decade to become commercially viable to all.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –60

Future of Smart Manufacturing
Smart devices have the potential to transform how factories operate, how sites are managed, how vehicles
are maintained and operated, and much more. As industrial devices become more intelligent and connected, they produce huge amounts of data that can be collected and used to generate new business ideas
and drive new, digital value chains.28
Smart Manufacturing comprises multiple key disruptive technologies, enhancing operational excellence, resource efficiency and time to market.

The future of manufacturing will see a central role for ICT enabled factories that are self-organized, flexible,
decentralized and highly connected.
Figure 30: Manufacturing - Future of Smart Manufacturing: Technology Vision for 2030

Virtual Manufacturing
By 2030, we envision the potential roll-out of what some have called virtual manufacturing in which elements of the following capabilities become commercially viable at scale.
CPS-optimized production processes: Smart factory “units” will be able to determine and identify theirown fields of activity, configuration options and production conditions as well as being able to communicate
independently with other units.
Self-organizing and self-maintaining factories: Smart machines will be able to detect when they are
faulty, switch production lines and repair themselves without any downtime.

28 Digital Factory (2014), 4.0 The digital industry: a case study for an industrial revolution

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Flexible factories and products: Fully ICT-enabled factories will have dynamic production lines, throughwhich products can move autonomously through the CPS-enabled workstations based on customer needs.
This will allow for fast and efficient customized production processes and could even enable virtual production networks, where businesses can send their product design to any factory across the globe andhave their product 3D printed or produced instantly.
Customer Centric Production
Smart manufacturing lends a further boost to the empowerment of the customer to affordably tailor mass
produced items to specific needs. It also allows wholesale customers to monitor and track all stages of
their order in real-time, enabling them to better optimize their own supply chain planning and requirements.
Circular Supply Chain
Smart manufacturing can also contribute to the roll-out and viability of circular business models by allowing
products and components to be tagged, tracked and traced throughout their entire lifecycle. In a circularmodel, products are returned to the factory at end-of-life to be re-manufactured, repaired or refurbished,creating significant resource savings. This enables companies to reduce their input costs, manage supply
chain risks and become more competitive in their sectors29.
Smart Services
Already today, we are witnessing a shift towards service offerings even in product-focused sectors likemanufacturing. Offering products as services can open up new market segments, generate revenue opportunities and create competitive advantage.
Our research predicts that by 2030 we will see the development of cross-sector ecosystems of services
with up and downstream integration, where products can be produced on-demand at any place or time,
facilitating immediate responses to changes in market conditions.

Sustainability Impacts of Smart Manufacturing
Smart Manufacturing contributes 22% (2.7Gt CO2e) of the total emissions abatement potential of the eightsectors covered in this report, with the aim of creating a total abatement potential of 12.08 Gt CO2e by 2030.
In addition, smart manufacturing solutions have the potential to create energy savings of 4.2 billion MWhand save 81 billion liters of water through more efficient production processes.
The global emissions abatement potential from Smart Manufacturing equals 22% of the total contribution from the eight sectors.

Smart manufacturing solutions also create significant economic benefits. We estimate that the introductionof automated and self-maintained smart processes will lead to industry cost savings of $349 billion.
Smart Manufacturing helps improve production costs and quality, while minimizing environmental impact, natural resource use, and energy consumption.

29 Accenture (2014), Circular Advantage - Innovative Business Models and Technologies to Create Value in a World
without Limits to Growth

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Figure 31: Manufacturing - Benefits of Smart Manufacturing

FJVPS – Avoiding emissions in manufacturing through digital prototyping
The Fujitsu Virtual Product Simulator (FJVPS) is an advanced manufacturing industry solution that allows
manufacturing companies to create virtual prototypes of their products, machines or other items instead of
having to physically manufacture them. The FJVPS provides a simple design operation using 3D-CAD
data that even people inexperienced with the technology can use to design their own prototypes, detect
faults and improve design quality in the very early stages of product design.
The Virtual Product Simulator realizes benefits such as quality improvement by detecting 50-80% of design
errors, shortening the development period and associated costs by 50%, and reducing necessary manhours by 30-40%. Furthermore, replacing face-to-face with online meetings, and reducing resources used
for prototyping, achieves a reduction in CO2e emissions of 30%. Allowing companies to virtually test theirdesign without physical manufacturing drives significant savings in terms of time, money, resources andemissions.
Smart inverters – Enabling solar power plants
Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources to date. Solar cells and panels used
to generate this energy are produced in Photovoltaic (PV) plants. Inverters are the core of every PV plant,
converting direct current generated through PV modules into energy usable in the grid. In addition, inverters control and monitor the plant and grid to ensure optimum safety. Chinese ICT company Huawei developed a smart PV solution at a 7.8MW solar park in Germany using smart string inverters rather than traditional inverters. These smart inverters are connected via a 4G LTE wireless network, have a smart andreadable battery and offer remote monitoring capabilities allowing for better data analysis and a higher
power ratio.
Using ICT-enabled inverters allows site owners to have greater control and monitoring of their plant throughdata collection and analysis, while the price of smart string inverters is lower than that of traditional ones.
In addition, this technology improves solar power generation performance in difficult weather conditions
such as extreme heat, continuous rain and even in salt mist conditions. Applying this ICT-enabled solution
generated the PV plant in Germany a 5% higher yield and a 50% better maintenance efficiency. Smartinverters provide a strong example of how combining advanced hardware and technology with ICT-enabled
solutions can enable further integration of renewable energy into the grid.
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –63

4 Countries across all income levels can benefit from ICT solutions
In this chapter, we break down our analysis by geography, presenting findings on the environmental, socialand economic benefits ICT can bring to meet specific challenges in nine countries, of varying incomes andsocial profiles. The countries we examine are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Kenya,
the United Kingdom and the USA. We have chosen this range of countries for their variety of economic
development but also for the range of differing, specific challenges ICT can help them overcome.

4.1

Australia

Current Context
Australia’s GDP grew by over 2% in 2013, bringing the overall size of its economy in at over $867 billion.30
The country has maintained stable economic growth for over two decades and managed to avoid the worstof the economic downturn. The services sector is an important growth engine, contributing 57% to thecountry’s total economic output31.
In the area of sustainability and well-being, Australia faces a number of challenges, as highlighted by thegovernment’s Sustainable Australia report of 201332.
Perhaps some of the most pressing sustainability challenges for Australia are: securing reliable food supplies in a country increasingly prone to drought; inequality of access to education and, therefore, unequal
educational outcomes; responding to the budgetary pressures brought on by an ageing population and,fourthly, the increased need for better transport and logistics solutions.
Our research finds that – coupled to smart healthcare – the most effective ICT-enabled solutions to meetthe challenges Australia faces come in the form of Smart Agriculture, Smart Energy and Smart Manufacturing.
Australia is growing, but its growth is not evenly distributed. There are differences between the opportunities available to residents of urban areas and those available to residents in regional or rural areas. There
are also disparities in uptake of education varying across different income groups. Only 74% of young
people in low-income areas have completed a basic vocational qualification compared to around 94% in
the higher income groups.
By 2030, the number of Australians aged 65 and over is expected to have increased by 84% from 2015.
And this ageing population is expected to result in increased social welfare and healthcare expenses. By
2047, government health costs could be close to 10% of GDP33, compared to 6% today. So finding innovative ways to keep healthcare services accessible, affordable and scalable is essential for Australia.
Additionally, although Australia is a large country, there is pressure to feed its growing population. In 2011,
53% of Australia’s land was used for agricultural purposes, but only 12% of this was used for crops, withthe remaining being used for grazing34.
The government has established Food Innovation Australia Limited, an “Industry Innovation Precinct forFood”, geared to making the sector more strategic and commercially focused.

30 The World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD
31 Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Economy Snapshot, 2015, http://www.rba.gov.au/snapshots/economy-snapshot/pdf/australian-economy-snapshot.pdf?accessed=2015-05-20-00-59-47
32 Sustainable Australia Report, 2013: Conversations With The Future

33 Australian Government Productivity Commission Research Paper (2013). http://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/ageingaustralia/ageing-australia.pdf
34 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011-2012). http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/4630.0Main%20Features32011-12?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=4630.0&issue=2011-12&num=&view=

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –64

Figure 32: Australia - Sustainability priorities for Australia

Only 74% of young people in low-income areas have completed a basic vocational
qualification compared to around 94% in the higher income groups.

The ageing Australian population will exert significant budgetary pressures on thegovernment in relation to old age pensions, health services and care facilities.
In 2011, the agriculture sector was the largest single consumer of water, accountingfor 55% of Australia’s water consumption.
With Australia’s population expected to grow to a little under 30 million people by203035, the size of the country’s cities is expected to increase. This could lead Australia’s mobility and congestion issues to worsen, requiring significant investments inadditional transport and infrastructure.

The equitable distribution of knowledge and wealth, better access to healthcare for seniors andmore efficient food value chains are important sustainability issues for Australia.

What ICT could do for Australia by 2030
ICT-enabled solutions can play an important role in addressing Australia’s most pressing sustainability
challenges. Australia already has a very high mobile phone and smart phone penetration rate (135% and
90% respectively in 2014).36 For Australia, ICT can help equalize access to services by, for example, making healthcare accessible to all, and helping produce food more productively and sustainably.
In Australia, ICT can help bring equality to the delivery of services, make healthcare accessible toall, and help produce food sustainably.

Another key issue for Australia is delivering equal education and learning opportunities to different populations and income groups. E-Learning, which is the deployment of computerized devices in educational andlearning environments, can address this issue. Using broadband internet and smart devices, engaging andpersonalized learning materials can be made available to every student in Australia.
Our analysis suggests that in Australia alone, by 2030, more than 415,000 E-Learning degrees could beobtained every year, even in the most remote parts of Australia. Indeed, through E-Learning, education
departments and universities could together save as much as $9 billion a year.
ICT can also help support the country’s healthcare system. Using technologies like wearables, smart devices and making use of remote diagnostics, providers and practitioners alike can engage patients remotely, on-demand, thereby saving time and resources. We estimate that, by 2030, an additional sevenmillion people can be benefit from E-Health, including a growing elderly population who would be able tocommunicate with their doctors from the comfort of their own homes.

35 Australian Government Productivity Commission Research Paper (2013). http://www.pc.gov.au/research/com-

pleted/ageing-australia/ageing-australia.pdf
36 Australia - Mobile Communications - Statistics and Forecasts - See more at: http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Australia-

Mobile-Communications-Statistics-and-Forecasts.html#execsummary
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –65

ICT also has an important role to play in making food and agriculture more efficient and sustainable. By
using advanced data management techniques like sensor-based field equipment, data analytics and information and communication platforms, the yield per hectare of land can be increased by over 700kg peryear by 2030. Similarly, water use can be brought down by nearly 650 billion liters each year by 2030 as aresult of more data-driven and precise agricultural practices.
In the area of mobility, ICT-enabled solutions such as traffic optimization, connected private transportationand smart transport and logistics could help reduce Australia’s congestion issues, reduce CO2e emissions
associated with travel, and facilitate better mobility to a growing urban population.
Australia can potentially abate about 0.19 Gt of emissions by integrating ICT into across different
sectors.

In total, ICT-enabled solutions across different sectors in Australia can could cut as much as 0.19 Gt CO2eby 2030. Smart Agriculture, Smart Energy and Smart Manufacturing solutions represent about 75% of thetotal potential saving.
Figure 33: Australia - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

In addition to the environmental benefits, ICT can also provide other social and economic benefits to Australia. For example, e-commerce solutions in a range of sectors could save over 250 million liters of fuelthrough avoided shopping trips and almost $9 billion could be saved by reducing the need for office infrastructure. In addition, smart building solutions could help reduce household water consumption by 650
million liters through smart metering and the Internet of Things.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –66

Figure 34: Australia - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

4.2

BrazilCurrent Context
With a growth rate of 2.5%37 in 2013, Brazil has experienced lower growth rates in recent but remains oneof the biggest economic development stories in the world, helped by the fact that it is the sixth most populous country in the world38. It is also the world’s fifth largest internet user39 and the eighth largest consumerof energy.
The sustainability issues facing Brazil center on its energy, traffic congestion and deforestation
activities.

Because of its sheer scale, Brazil faces significant sustainability challenges. Although the share of renewables (including hydro) in Brazil’s energy mix is very high (77% in 201340) certain regions still suffer blackouts during peak hours, which became acute during the early months of 201541. These were caused by
two main factors: a lack of rainfall in a country heavily reliant on hydro-electric power and poor and unreliable grid connectivity. Added to these supply-side challenges is the fact that demand in Brazil continues togrow.

37 World Bank (2013), GDP Growth Rate
38 Maps of World (2014), Most Populated Countries in the World
39 Internet Live Stats (2014), List of Countries by Internet Usage
40 Enerdata (2013), Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014
41 Bloomberg (2015), Brazil Real Leads Global Gains as Tax Increases Fuel Optimism

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –67

There are significant logistics challenges too. According to the World Bank, with 8.5 million motorized vehicles and 100-kilometer-long traffic jams, São Paulo is the sixth most congested city in the world.42 Like
many others facing this problem, the city is looking for ways to shift rapid motorization onto a more sustainable path.
In summary, the sustainability issues Brazil is facing center on its energy use, traffic congestion problems
and deforestation activities. Our research shows that the ICT solutions most likely to address these challenges are a combination of Smart Agriculture, Smart Energy and Smart Manufacturing solutions.
Figure 35 gives a glimpse of some key sustainability priorities for Brazil.
Figure 35: Brazil - Sustainability priorities for Brazil

Between 1990 and 2013, Brazil’s emissions increased by 189%.43 Statistics from the Institute of Health and Sustainability indicate that 4,655 people died as a result of air pollution in São Paulo alone in 2011.
A shortage of rainfall is drying up Brazil's hydropower dams, leading to electricity shortages. These supply shortages are exacerbated by increases in demand. In 2013, energy
demand rose by over 5% and shows no signs of abating in the near future.44
The cities of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo spent roughly $43 billion on traffic in 2013
alone. The loss amounts to about 8% of each metropolitan area’s GDP, and 2% of Brazil’s entire GDP.45

Because Brazil is home to the Amazon Rainforest and the basin it occupies, deforestation has become a major cause for concern. Satellite data indicate a 190% surge in land
clearance in Autumn 2014 compared with the same period last year.46

Connectivity is growing in Brazil with mobile penetration currently sitting at 135 mobile phones per 100
inhabitants.47
Mobile phone penetration in Brazil has already reached maturity levels, with a penetration of 135
mobile phones per 100 inhabitants.
• In 2014, 29% of Brazilians had access to a smart home, up from 26% in 201348. Smartphone penetration rate is expected to soar to 42% by 2017.49

42 World Bank (2014), Changing Commuters’ Choices Helps São Paulo Reduce Traffic Congestion
43

JRC(2013), Trends in Global CO2 emissions

44 EconoMonitor (2014), Lights Out: Brazil’s Power Problem
45 EBC (Brazil Communication Company) (2014), Custo de congestionamentos no Rio e em São Paulo atinge R$ 98 bilhões
46 The Guardian (2014), Amazon deforestation picking up pace, satellite data reveals
47 World Bank (2013), Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
48 TechinBrazil (2014), Brazilian Smartphone penetration grows 11% YOY
49 The Statistics Portal (2015), Share of mobile phone users that use a smartphone in Brazil from 2011 to 2017

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –68• In parallel, around 70 million mobile phone users had mobile internet access in 2014 and this is expected to reach 114 million by 2018.50
The Brazilian IT and telecommunications market is currently predicted to grow by 5% and to generate $166
billion in 2015. According to IDC, Brazil was the fastest growing country for ICT in 2014.51
Frost & Sullivan estimate, meanwhile, the Brazilian cloud computing market should see a jump in market
revenues from $328.8 million in 2013 to over $1 billion by 2017. Gartner corroborates this, finding that thehighest growth rates for cloud computing services continue to come from emerging regions like Brazil andIndia52.

What ICT could do for Brazil by 2030
ICT can play an especially critical role in two core areas most relevant to Brazil: Smart Energy and Smart
Mobility solutions.
Our analysis demonstrates that ICT is fundamental to reducing traffic congestion by improving communications and urban planning infrastructure and by helping people reduce their travel by road.
For example, E-Work technologies like videoconferencing could save around 3 billion liters of fuel.
Through Smart Grids and Smart Metering, Brazilians will be better able to manage their energy requirements, which could save them around 100 million MWh of electricity. At the same time, technologies like
RFID and GPS will help farmers and the authorities alike tackle deforestation53.
In total, ICT-enabled solutions across the different sectors in Brazil could cut as much as 0.41Gt CO2e by
2030 with Smart Agriculture, Smart Energy and Smart Manufacturing accounting for more than 75% of
the saving.
Figure 36: Brazil – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

50 The Statistics Portal (2015), Mobile phone internet users in Brazil from 2011 to 2018 (in millions)
51 EIN Newsdesk (2015), Brazilian ICT market to grow 5 percent in 2015
52 Gartner Newsroom (2013), Gartner Says Worldwide Public Cloud Services Market to Total $131 Billion
53 Resilience (2014), How Brazil Has Dramatically Reduced Tropical Deforestation

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Figure 37: Brazil - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

4.3

CanadaCurrent Context
Canada, with a GDP of more than $1.4 trillion per year and a population of 36 million54, maintains one of
the cleanest electricity systems in the world, with 79% of its electricity coming from non-greenhouse gas
emitting sources. Renewable energy like solar, wind, biomass and geothermal currently provides 18% of
Canada’s total primary energy supply.55
Since 2008, the Government has committed over $580 million to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology R&D, including to demonstration projects.
Our modeling shows that ICT too has an important role to play in helping Canada respond effectively to its
sustainability priorities (see Figure 38). These center on reducing air pollution and traffic congestion andimproving access to secure and reliable supplies of clean water.
A significant amount of Canada’s emissions can be attributed to the transportation sector, so Smart Mobility
solutions will be key. However, of the total emissions savings from ICT we have modelled for Canada,
Smart Energy, Smart Manufacturing and Smart Buildings represent about 70%.
Figure 38: Canada - Sustainability priorities for Canada

Between 1990 and 2013, Canada’s emissions increased by 23%. Industrial activities
and home firewood burning emitted most of the particulate matter (TPM, PM10 andPM2.5) in 2012.56

54 Population Pyramids (2015), Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100
55 Canada COP 20 (2015), Facts on Canadian Energy Production, Efficiency, and Initiatives
56 Environment Canada (2014), 2012 Air Pollutant Emission Summaries and Historical Emission Trends.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –70According to the 2015 TomTom annual traffic index, one of the most accurate barometers of traffic congestion in over 200 cities worldwide, the average time lost to
traffic in Canada is almost 79 hours per year.57
Canada has approximately 7% of the world’s total renewable freshwater supply. But
Canadians are among the highest water users per capita in the world.58 The average
Canadian uses about 329 liters of water a day compared to the average resident ofMunich, Germany, who uses about 100 liters a day.59

The good news is that mobile and smart phone uptake is high and growing in Canada, opening up further
opportunities for citizen empowerment through ICT:
• Mobile phone penetration between 2010 and 2013 increased from 76 to 81 per 100 inhabitants.60• Smartphones became the mobile device of choice in Canada in 2014. According to the recent reporton smartphone penetration by e-marketer, 17.8 million Canadians, over half of the population, useda smartphone in 2014. More than 80% of 18- to 34-year-olds used smartphones in 2014, and by
2018, this is expected to reach 98%.61• Canada ranks second in the world for hours spent online per person (at 33 hours per month on average per person, 49% of which is attributed to mobile devises.62)
Between 2007 and 2013, ICT sector revenues in Canada increased by nearly 20% to $160 billion63. And
Canada’s ICT sector currently represents 5% of its total GDP, accounting for 11.5% of all real GDP growthsince 2002.64
In spite of its abundant renewable energy sources, Canada is still struggling with high overall emissions
from sources such as transport and heating. Fortunately, there are a number of opportunities across numerous sectors where ICT can help Canada achieve sustainable growth.

What ICT could do for Canada by 2030
ICT can play a critical role in Canada in three areas in particular: smart energy, Smart Building sand Smart
Mobility.
ICT enabled services have the potential to play a key role in achieving Canada’s top environmental priorities.

Our research shows that ICT should be a fundamental part of the response to the challenges set out in the
2013-16 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy (FSDS), particularly with regard to addressing climatechange and air pollution and maintaining water quality and availability.

57 Global News (2015), Vancouver remains the most traffic-congested city in Canada
58 Government of Canada (2014), Environment Canada, Water
59 Global News (2015), Canada must start linking water, energy issues: scientist
60 World Bank (2013), Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
61 E-marketer (2015), Over Half of Canada's Population to Use Smartphones in 2015
62 Huffington Post Canada (2014), Mobile Now 49% Of Internet Usage In Canada, comScore Says
63 Government of Canada (2014), Industry Canada, Information and Communications Technologies (ICT)
64Government of Canada (2014), Digital Canada 150, Growing the Information and Communications Technology Industry

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By helping to integrate renewables onto the grid and by reducing electricity demand, through Smart Buildings, ICT can help reduce overall emissions and conserve resources. For example – ICT-enabled water
management practices could save 2.3 billion liters of wastewater production from Canadian buildings in
2030.
Our analysis underlines the importance of introducing improved mobility solutions through ICT and by encouraging car sharing and, eventually, automated driving.
This chimes with a study conducted by the Van Horne Institute, a Calgary-based think-tank, and the Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence (CAVCOE). Their study argues that self-driving cars andtrucks could be introduced to Canadian roads in the next decade and save Canadians $65 billion throughfewer collisions, reduced traffic congestion, lower fuel costs and less time wasted.65
In total, ICT-enabled solutions across the different sectors in Canada could cut as much as 0.19Gt CO2eby 2030. Smart Energy and Smart Manufacturing and Smart Buildings represent about 70% of the totalsaving.
Figure 39: Canada – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

ICT can also deliver significant additional sustainability benefits for Canada, through 348 million MWh ofenergy savings due to smart demand management and around 4 billion liters of water savings from more
efficient water management practices in buildings. (See Figure 40).

65 CBC News (2015), Autonomous cars could save Canadians $65B a year

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Figure 40: Canada - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

4.4

China

Current Context
China has had a remarkable period of rapid growth in the last two decades and has the largest populationof 1.36 billion and the second largest economy in the world with an annual GDP of $11.3 expected for201566, a role which brings new powers and responsibilities.
As a consequence of its rapid growth, China’s environment has suffered. Among other problems, air pollution in China remains a major concern and China’s government has incorporated sustainable development into its national plan.
Just under half of the Chinese population lives in rural areas, of which, around 38% rely on agriculture as
the main source of income and employment. However, the Chinese agricultural sector currently faces major
environmental challenges. Use of fertilizers and pesticides are among the highest in the world and water
scarcity negatively affects many parts of the country.67
As research by one of China’s leading universities indicates, on average, around 90 out of every 100,000
people living in China are at risk of dying prematurely due to long-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants,
like fine dust pollution, which reached record levels in 201368. Beijing's annual bill for traffic congestion,
meanwhile, comes in at a staggering 70 billion RMB ($11.3 billion)69.
Figure 41 gives a glimpse of some of the key sustainability issues that China faces. Overall, our workfinds that Smart Mobility solutions and Smart Manufacturing solutions taken together could generatearound half of the total emissions savings ICT can help China realize.

66 IMF, 2015 forecasts $11.3 trillion of GDP in current USD prices (Status as of May 2015), https://www.imf.org/
67 Guardian (2013), Global threat to food supply as water wells dry up, warns top environment expert
68 Greenpeace (2015), China’s ‘airmageddon’ could cause over 250,000 premature deaths
69 China Daily (2014), Traffic jams cost Beijing $11.3b a year

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –73Air pollution and water challenges and food safety concerns are some of the most pressing challenges arising from China’s rapid economic growth.
Figure 41: China - Sustainability priorities for China

Between 1990 and 2013, China’s CO2e emissions increased by 312%70. In 2013,smog choked China's northern city of Harbin, forcing schools and highways toclose71. Only eight Chinese cities met the country's air quality standards in 2014.72
In 2012, 75% of China’s total electricity generation was coal generated. Wind andhydro-power accounted for 20%.73
Traffic congestion is a prominent problem in Beijing with car traffic increasing by
10% annually and roads being extended by only 2%. Statistics from Beijing’s Department of Transport showed that, in 2013, the capital's average daily commute
came to one hour and 55 minutes, 25 minutes longer than in 2012.

China is having trouble feeding its 1.36 billion people and tastes and preferences
are changing as the nation becomes wealthier, while domestic supplies dwindle.
China imported 2.58 million tons of rice in 2014, up 13.6% from a year earlier.74

But our work shows that ICT can play a very important role in helping China grow sustainably.
The annual growth of mobile commerce applications like online shopping, mobile payments andmobile banking is higher than the growth rate of other mobile applications.
•

Mobile phone penetration in China has grown impressively from 64.36 to 90.33 phones per 100 people between 2010 and 2013
• In 2014, 42% of the Chinese population used a smartphone, up from 38% in 2013. With the growthof ICT in the country, this rate is expected to reach 51% by 2018.75 In parallel, internet usage throughmobile devices has grown by 11.4% since 2013.
China now has the highest number of internet (621 million) and mobile phone users (859 million) in theworld. The number of internet users in China is more than double than that in the United States76, andChina has three times more mobile phone users than the US and Russia77.
Despite its rapid growth, though, China still has the second largest number of people living in poverty inthe world, with more than 82 million people living below the poverty line of less than $1 a day in 201478. So

70

JRC(2013), Trends in Global CO2 emission

71 BBC (2013), Northern China smog closes schools and airport in Harbin
72 CNN (2015), Cities that meet air standards in China: 8
73 The Shift Project Data Portal (2012), Breakdown of Electricity Generation by Energy Source
74 China Daily (2015), China's rice import rises on market factors: official
75 China Internet Watch (2015), China Smartphone Users to Exceed 700 Mln in 2018
76 Internet World Stats (2013), Top 20 countries with the highest number of internet users
77 Maps of World (2012), Top Ten Countries With Highest Ratio Of Mobile Phone Users
78 International Business Times (2014), China: More than 82 Million People Live Below Poverty Line

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –74

it is imperative that China pursues a sustainable development path that permits the continued lifting of its
population out of poverty.

What ICT could do for China by 2030
The four areas where ICT has the biggest potential in China are: Smart Energy, Smart Manufacturing,
Smart Agriculture and Smart Mobility solutions.
China’s increasingly urban and middle class population is driving a growing and changing demand for food.
ICT can play an increasing role on farms and in the agricultural sector generally to make it more productive
and sustainable. For example, we estimate that increased water efficiency brought on by smart water management practices could save around 36 trillion liters of water in 2030. (See Figure 43)
China has the largest manufacturing industry in the world, so Smart Manufacturing, aimed specifically at
promoting industry 4.0 technologies in the country under the new strategic program – “Made in China 2025”– is another important area where ICT is fundamental to transforming the Chinese economy.
Finally, China is rethinking its mobility sector by tilting more towards public transport and, therefore, intelligent infrastructure and better traffic management will be key in taking as many cars as possible (especiallyold ones) off Chinese roads by 2030.
Across the eight sectors analyzed we have identified a total CO2e abatement potential of 2.21 Gt CO2e for
China by 2030, with smart manufacturing and Smart Mobility contributing more than 50% to that total (seeFigure 42).
Figure 42: China – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –75

Figure 43: China - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

ICT-enabled platforms will bring benefits across different industry sectors by becoming environmentally sustainable and economically viable.

4.5

Germany

Current Context
With a Gross Domestic Product of close to $4 trillion79 and a population of 81 million, Germany is the largest
national market in the EU. It is also the largest economy in Europe and the fourth largest in the world.80 To
maintain its leadership position in the world, there are several sustainability-related priorities it is aiming at.
German energy policy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2020 and 80-95% by2050. Renewable generation (at 31%) has now surpassed that of coal (26.1%).

In a major policy goal, Germany has committed to phasing out its nuclear generators by 202281 and its
energy policy aims to reduce emissions by 40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050.82 At 31%, renewable energy
generation surpassed that of coal (26.1%) in 2014. Wind energy produces 8.9% of total German energy

79 IMF (2014), GDP in current prices
80 Centre for Economics and Business Research (2014), World Economic League Table 2015
81 Renew Economy (2014), Germany looks to fast-track exit from coal, as well as nuclear
82 The Guardian (2012), German renewable energy drive brings emissions cuts success

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –76consumption and Germany was by far the biggest market for wind technology in 2014, installing nearly halfof new wind farms in the EU83.
Our analysis shows that ICT too has an important role to play in helping the country meet its sustainability
targets. For example, the buildings sector is responsible for 40%84 of primary energy consumption in Germany and approximately 33% of emissions.85 The government has set ambitious energy reduction goals
for its buildings sector, including an 80% reduction in primary energy use in buildings by 2050.86 A highnumber of private cars means that fuel use is another area where the opportunity to save is high.
Figure 44 gives an overview of the main sustainability issues that Germany faces. Our modeling showsthat a combination of Smart Buildings and Smart Manufacturing solutions could contribute around 60% of
the total emissions savings ICT can offer Germany.
Figure 44: Germany - Sustainability priorities for Germany

After reducing its emissions by 17% between 1990 and 2013, Germany recorded anincrease of 4% in emissions in 2013, compared to the previous year.87 According to
EEA figures, Germany was responsible for €38.2 billion of damage to society as aresult of air pollution88, mainly driven by coal-based energy production, which accounted for over 40% energy production in 201489
The German government aims to derive 80% of its electricity from carbon-freesources by 2050 but coal imports are increasing in order to meet the country’s baseload power demands.90
The intermittency of renewables and the turn away from nuclear power have createdan energy supply problem that is likely to impact Germany for years. To fill the gap,
Berlin has little choice but to rely on electricity generation from coal-fired power stations91.
According to INRIX, the leading provider of traffic information, Germany ranked 3rdafter Belgium and The Netherlands in hours wasted through traffic in 2013.92 Drivers
in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium and The Netherlands wasted 54
hours on average annually.
INRIX results also show that Stuttgart, a major city in Germany has the highest number of hours wasted (60 hours) in traffic in 2013.

83 The European Wind Energy Association (2014), Wind in Power, European Statistics
84 Germany.info (2012), Key Messages on German Climate and Energy Policy
85 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (2013), Climate Change>Energy Efficiency>General

Information
86 Climate Policy Initiative (2013), Buildings Energy Efficiency in China, Germany, and the United States
87 JRC(2013 & 2014), Trends in Global CO

2 emissions

88 Euronews (2014), Which countries in Europe cause the most air pollution damage?
89 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, AG Energiebilanzen (2015)
90 Russian Times (2015), German coal imports from Russia highest since 2006
91 Financial Times (2014), The growing absurdity of German energy policy
92 INRIX (2013), Scorecard, Key Findings

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –77• In terms of mobile phone penetration, Germany has already reached the saturation point with 121
mobile phones per 100 people93• Smart phones meanwhile are picking up fast with a 50% penetration rate in 2014, up from 41% in
2013. This is expected to reach 80% by 2017.94 In parallel, internet usage through mobile devices
has grown to 54% from 40%.
According to a recent survey by the TNS, Infratest and ZEW institutes, some 843,000 people work in thedigital sector in Germany.95 In addition, Germany is one of world’s leading exporters of hi-tech products.
While Germany is progressing quickly towards its goals, there are a number of opportunities across sectors
where ICT can play even bigger role and help bring transformational solutions for sustainable growth.

What ICT could do for Germany by 2030
The sectors in which ICT could have the greatest impact in Germany are: Smart Energy, Smart Manufacturing and Smart Mobility.
ICT enabled services have the potential to play a key role in achieving Germany’s goal of being aleader in sustainability.

Our analysis demonstrates that ICT is fundamental to realizing “Energiewende” (the energy transformation
program), by enabling the full integration of renewables onto the smart grid.
Likewise, Smart Manufacturing could benefit an economy which retains such a strong manufacturing baseand connecting Germany to the Internet of Things, or Industry 4.0, is an ICT-driven priority with massive
growth potential.
Last but not least, German automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are improving their mobility solutions through ICT by scaling up car sharing solutions and testing fully connected infrastructurewith a view to rolling out automated driving.
Across the 8 sectors analyzed we have identified a total CO2e abatement potential of 0.29 Gt CO2e forGermany by 2030, with Smart Manufacturing and smart Building Representing more than 60% of this saving.

93 World Bank (2013), Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
94 Statista (2012), Forecast: smartphone user penetration in Germany 2010-2017
95 The Business Magazine (2013), Digital Germany

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –78

Figure 45: Germany – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

Figure 46: Germany - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –

79

4.6

India

Current Context
As the world’s second most populous country, India is under pressure on all development fronts: creating
jobs, producing food, providing infrastructure and mobility, and generating sustainable economic growth tosupport its citizens. For a population of 1.25 billion and a current per capita GDP of around $1,500, thecountry needs to adopt the right growth models to do all of this at a massive scale.
From poverty to air quality, India has set ambitious goals to sustain a diverse and growing population.

Just to sustain its current GDP growth at roughly 5% per year will exert immense pressure on natural andhuman resources in India. Figure 47 gives an overview of the main sustainability issues that the country
faces. Our research found that Smart Buildings and Smart Agriculture solutions offer the biggest potential
ICT-enabled emissions savings to India.
Figure 47: India - Sustainability priorities for India

Resources in India are under severe pressure and resource demand will only increase with the
population projected to reach 1.47 billion by 2030
Between 1990 and 2012, India’s emissions increased by 198%. This means agreater contribution to climate change96. The World Health Organization has identified 13 Indian cities in the World’s top 50 polluted cities, including both Delhi andMumbai.
India is the third largest energy consumer in the world, after China and the US, withenergy demand still on the rise97. Shortages have led to significant blackouts in thelast few years. Additionally, almost a quarter of all energy produced is lost in transmission and distribution98.
Infrastructure in India is limited while traffic in the six major Indian cities is growing
at a rate four times faster than their populations99. Within 20 years, the average
travel speed in major cities is expected to reduce from 17 - 26 km per hour to 6 - 8km per hour100.

96

JRC(2013), Trends in Global CO2 emissions

97

Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014, Total Energy Consumption in 2013

98India Loses 23% of Power during T&D, Reveals Piyush Goyal: http://www.ibtimes.co.in/india-loses-23-power-during-td-reveals-piyush-goyal-

604472
99

International Journal of Enterprise Innovation Management Studies(2011), A study on the effective traffic management of roads to reduce roadaccidents in Tamil Nadu

100

Urbanisation in India - 12th Plan (2012 - 2017), http://www.slideshare.net/PlanComIndia/urbanisation-in-india-12th-plan-2012-2017

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –80Our research shows that ICT can play a very important role in helping India grow sustainably. Among othertechnologies, mobile connectivity and internet services have already started making significant inroads into
the Indian consumer market:• Nearly 78 out of 100 Indians have at least a basic mobile phone connection101.
• Smart phone penetration reached 13% in 2014 and is expected to reach 70% by 2030.
Progress is set to continue, with ICT expected to become increasingly integrated across sectors and industries. In 2014 alone, India’s IT spend exceeded $71 billion, about 6% higher than forecasted102. This iscreating huge potential for jobs growth, with the overall ICT workforce in India coming in at 2.5 million
workers103, with around 400,000 ICT postgraduates joining every year104.

What ICT could do for India by 2030
Some of India’s current priorities include working towards job creation, raising literacy levels, providing
access to healthcare, introducing more people to mainstream banking and addressing environmental problems.
Providing education to a larger number of children can help raise literacy levels and reduce absolute poverty in the long term. E-Learning, the use of ICT in education, can make learning accessible at scale in anaffordable way. For institutions, E-Learning could mean a saving of between $150-175 billion as physicalresources are freed up for alternative uses. These savings can then be re-invested into the education
system.
In India, nationwide access to quality and affordable healthcare and health-related information and education is still lagging behind. The national healthcare system is struggling with providing access to such services to a rapidly growing population. ICT, in particular mobile technology, has the potential of making
healthcare services and related education accessible in even the most remote areas and affordable to eventhe lowest income groups. In this effort, it will be critical to expand mobile network coverage to remote rural
areas and establish a facilitative policy framework that encourages private sector investment105
Financial inclusion is another key challenge facing India with 55% of the population left without access toformal financial services in 2011106. Currently, only 34% of existing banking services are ICT-enabled andassessable via smart devices. Our research indicates that if the Indian banking sector raised ICT adoption
by a quarter between now and 2030, approximately 60-70% of all banking services could be delivered via
smarter methods and reach more people. When banking becomes more accessible and more people haveaccess to capital, this can help boost economic growth and quality of life. Indeed, inclusion into mainstreambanking via e-banking will mean citizens receive quick and direct access to state-subsidies, capital to starta business, or the ability to send or receive money from abroad.107
Another key challenge in India is the deteriorating air quality, mostly due to road congestion. One of theeasiest ways to reduce air pollution is a reduction in miles traveled by road and our research shows that eCommerce solutions could save 0.07Gt of emissions in India by 2030 by reducing the need for people totravel to stores and shops. Likewise, with the proliferation of smart devices, about 10% of the target population could benefit from Traffic Control and Optimization platforms. Furthermore, with technologies like101

ASA & Associates LLP (2015), A brief report on Telecom Sector in India

102

Gartner Report: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-22/news/43288545_1_software-revenue-peter-sondergaard-gartner

103

KIG 2020 Report, released in 2013

104

Ministry of Human Resource Development, India

105 Mobile Health Report May (2012). http://www.telenor.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/BCG-Telenor-MobilE-Health-Report-May-20121.pdf
106 The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Financial Services (2011). http://www.telenor.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/The-Socio-Economic-

Impact-of-Mobile-Financial-Services-BCG-Telenor-Group-2011.pdf
107 The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Financial Services (2011). http://www.telenor.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/The-Socio-EconomicImpact-of-Mobile-Financial-Services-BCG-Telenor-Group-2011.pdf

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –81

videoconferencing, around a third of all employees in India could be working remotely by 2030, resulting in
fewer commutes.
ICT penetration will immensely benefit several industry sectors by helping them become more agile, responsive and efficient.

When it comes to energy distribution, Smart Grids can help India regulate its energy demand and supply.
Today, only 3% of Indian buildings are equipped with smart technology. By 2030, roughly 20% of buildings
will have smart metering infrastructure, allowing consumers and business alike to bring down emissions
while saving on utility bills.
It is therefore clear that ICT can play a significant role in shaping sustainable growth in India, as the graphic
below illustrates.
Figure 48: India – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –82

Figure 49: India - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

4.7

Kenya

Current Context
After independence in 1963, Kenya promoted rapid economic growth through public investment, the reinforcement of smallholder agricultural production, and incentives for foreign industrial investment.
Kenya's economy grew by 5.4% in 2014 and the economy is set on a path to even faster growth over the
next few years108.
Since the dramatic currency depreciation and rapid inflation of 2011, the economy stabilized in 2012 and2013 with inflation dropping to a single digit. Kenya is now emerging as one of Africa’s key growth centers,poised to become one of the fastest growing economies in East Africa, supported by lower energy costs
and high levels of investment in infrastructure, agriculture and manufacturing.109
Agriculture remains the backbone of the Kenyan economy and is central to the Government’s development
strategy. With only 8% of arable land and 75% of Kenya's workforce engaged in agriculture, Kenyan farmers face growing problems of soil erosion, deforestation, water pollution, and desertification.110
In addition to this, according to IBM’s fourth annual Commuter Pain survey in 2011, Nairobi was the world's
fourth-most congested city in the world, far worse than any city in the US111. Kenya's government has
estimated that traffic jams cost Nairobi around $600,000 per day in lost productivity and wasted fuel –adding up to $219 million every year.112 Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the importance of the rural economy

108 World Bank (2015), Kenya Overview
109 World Bank (2015), Kenya Emerging as One of East Africa’s Growth Centers
110 The US Government’s Global Hunger & Food Security Initiative (2013), Kenya Fact sheet
111 Forbes (2015), Fixing Traffic Congestion In Kenya: Twende
112 Bloomberg (2014), Traffic Costs Nairobi $570,000 a Day as No. 2 Africa Hub

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –83

to Kenya, our research found that Smart Agriculture solutions alone made up half the potential emissions
savings Kenya stands to gain from ICT by 2030.
Annual sustainable yield from forest land in 2012 was 30 million m3, but demand for wood products stood at 37 million m3.
Figure 50: Kenya - Sustainability priorities for Kenya

Nairobi’s population has increased from 350,000 in 1963 to 3.3 million today, with anestimated 700,000 vehicles at last count113 without a corresponding increase in theroad network. Typical commute times for people in Nairobi range from 1 to 2 hours for
distances of 10-15km.
The congestion problem is adding to numerous air pollution issues and researchers
estimate that life expectancies for children in heavily polluted environments have little
chance exceeding 50 years114.
The agricultural sector faces problems due to the over reliance on the land to support
livelihoods among the largely rural Kenyan population. Annual sustainable yield fromforest land in 2012 was 30 million m3. But demand stood at 37 million m3 meaning a
deficit of 7 million m3 and leading to decreasing forest cover, fire-wood shortages, increased soil and water erosion, and land degradation.115
Over 70% of national energy demand in Kenya is met by wood fuel, and in the rural
areas dependence on wood for cooking and lighting is 100%.116••

Kenya’s mobile phone penetration rate has increased impressively from 61 per 100 people in 2010
to 72 per 100 in 2013.117
The Kenyan ICT sector is growing strongly. In 2012, the International Data Corporation predictedthat Kenya’s ICT market would be worth $2 billion in 2015.118 The contribution of the sector to the
Kenyan economy increased to 12.1% in 2013 from 8.9% in 2006.119

A major catalyst in the development and expansion of ICT solutions in Kenya has been the liberalization of the market, which began in 1999.

A major reason for the expansion of ICT in Kenya has been the liberalization of the market, which began
in 1999 when the Kenya Post and Telecommunications Corporation was split into three entities: the Postal
Corporation of Kenya, Telkom Kenya Ltd (later privatized) and the Communications Commission of Kenya– the industry regulator.120 The Kenyan government has cited universal access to ICT as a major objectiveof Vision 2030 – Kenya’s economic blueprint, aimed at propelling Kenya from a developing to a middleincome country in the next 15 years.

113 Bloomberg (2014), http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-25/nairobi-traffic-loses-570-000-a-day-as-no-2-africa-hub
114 Nairobi News (2015), Air Pollution Now A Threat To Sex Life In Nairobi – Research
115 UNCED (2012), Sustainable Development in Kenya: Stocktaking in the run up to Rio+20
116 J.K. Githiomi, N. Oduor (2012), International Journal of Applied Science and Technology, Strategies for Sustainable Wood fuel Production in

Kenya
117 World Bank (2013), Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
118 CIO (2012), IDC, Kenya’s ICT market will be worth $2 billion by 2015
119 IT Web Africa (2014), ICT contribution to Kenya’s GDP hit 12.1% in 2013
120 Ministry of Information Communications and Technology (2014), The Kenya National ICT Masterplan

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –84

Our research indicates that ICT can offer Kenya the opportunity to strengthen economically as well as toimprove its productivity by raising the competitiveness of local businesses in a knowledge-based economy.

What ICT could do for Kenya by 2030
Our modeling shows two areas where ICT can benefit Kenya the most: Smart Agriculture and Smart Mobility solutions.
With ICT-enabled technological advancements, Kenya can put in resolute efforts to achieve environmental sustainability and propel its economic development towards becoming a middle-income country in the next 15 years.

More than 40% of Kenya’s 2012 emissions came from transport and ICT can play a leading role in managing the emissions from the transport sector as well as reducing traffic congestion in cities like Nairobi
through Smart Mobility and logistics solutions.
The government’s goal is for manufacturing to account for 20% of GDP by 2030, nearly twice today’s level.
Smart manufacturing, therefore, is another important area where ICT is central to Kenya’s future.
Our findings complement the initiatives being undertaken by Kenya in moving towards climate-Smart Agriculture and addressing a range of key development issues. ICT can play a significant role, for example, injoining the economic vison to the government’s Climate Change Action Plan (2013– 2017), in which agriculture is highlighted as a sector with great potential for contributing to a range of development goals fromfood security, nutrition and poverty reduction to climate change. Agroforestry, conservation, the cultivationof drought tolerant crops, water harvesting and integrated soil fertility management can all increase theproductivity from the agricultural sector and conserve natural resources at the same time. For example,
owing to increased water efficiency as a result of water management practices, we estimate that around
266 billion liters of water will be saved in 2030. (See Figure 52)
Across the 8 sectors analyzed we have identified a total CO2e abatement potential of 0.025 GtCO2e for
Kenya by 2030, with Smart Agriculture representing more than half the total (see Figure 51).
Figure 50: Kenya – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –85

Figure 51: Kenya - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

4.8

United Kingdom

Current Context
The UK, the world’s fifth largest economy and the second largest in Europe, grew by 1.7% in 2013 andsaw its per capita GDP rise to a little under $41,800121. While remaining a leading economy, the country is
now also focused on well-being metrics, evaluating well-being across ten metrics122. Eight of these, directly
or indirectly, depend upon environmental, social or economic sustainability.
Along with economic growth, the UK is also focusing on national well-being metrics.
Access to healthcare, for example, is a pressing issue for an ageing society like the UK’s and access topublically provided health services is difficult for older people, especially the 20% who face mobility challenges. People over 65 years old visit a General Practitioner about seven times a year, so there is a needto make healthcare much more accessible.
From an environmental perspective, emissions have declined by about 20% between 1990 and 2013 andair quality in general has improved. Renewables’ share of electricity generation has also gone up. On the
demand side, primary energy consumption in 2013 was the lowest in almost two decades123. However, thetransport sector, with a 36% share of emissions, is still the largest consumer of energy in the UK andreducing this should be a priority. Between 1970 and 2012 the energy intensity of road-freight has increased by 23%.
From the March 2015 results of the National Well-Being Report it became apparent that some key focus
areas like education and human capital have not progressed for 3 years. The number of secondary school
students (16-year-olds generally) getting A* to C grades at GCSE exams has remained constant at 58%.

121 World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
122 Measuring National Well-being: Life in the UK, 2015: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_398059.pdf
123 Energy Consumption in the UK (2014), Department of Energy and Climate Change

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –86Thus there could be good reason to make education more innovative, customized and available at scale
for the labor market to make use of.
For the UK as a whole, our research found that Smart Manufacturing and Smart Buildings offer the UK thelargest opportunities to cut its emissions through ICT.
Figure 52: UK - Sustainability priorities for United Kingdom

Making healthcare more accessible, affordable and scalable, especially for seniors
and disabled people.
Of the total 53.4 million tons of oil equivalent in the transport sector, road transport
has a 74% share. Reduction in total road trips could significantly help bring down theassociated pollution and emissions.
Improving the way education is delivered, bringing it to a larger audience and upskilling the workforce can help the UK increase the value of its human capital.

The UK’s priorities include more affordable access to healthcare and education.
• In 2013, about 60% of all mobile phone connections in the UK took place via smart phones• In the same year, almost half the UK population used a smart phone124

What ICT could do for the UK by 2030
We firmly believe that ICT can help the UK chart a path to citizen well-being. By 2030, about 54 million
British citizens will be ICT enabled. Their new devices will help them gain access to innovative services inconventional sectors like retail shopping, banking and healthcare.
By 2030, about 54 million British citizens will be ICT enabled.

For instance, smart applications in healthcare can put patients in control of their own healthcare. The same
systems can help older people in particular, as they can be accessed in a person’s home at low cost. We
estimate that by using technology, almost 20 million British citizens will be able to access healthcare services through ICT, freeing up over six million m2 of real estate which could be used for commercial orresidential purposes.
Like healthcare, Smarter Mobility solutions can help Britons commute less and transport their goods more
efficiently. In logistics alone, making use of technology like smart routing and traffic optimization could leadto a saving of over 300 million liters of fuel a year, an annual saving of over $500 billion a year by 2030.
Likewise, in education, ICT-enabled courses, available through the internet, can help customize learning
to suit students of all of ages and deliver it at the right pace. By 2030, we estimate that ICT-enabled education practices could be helping almost 1.5 million E-Learning secondary and higher education students
every year in the UK. This could save over $10 billion in 2030 on student expenditure.
The UK could cut about 0.18Gt CO2e by integrating ICT into its traditional business sectors.

Taken together, these innovations could lead to a huge reduction in UK emissions – as much as 0.18 Gt
CO2e every year by 2030.

124 Statista www.statista.com

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –87

Figure 53: UK - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

Figure 54: UK - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –

88

4.9

United States

Current Context
The USA is the world’s largest economy clocking up an annual GDP of $18 trillion and an expected growthrate of 2.3% in 2015, one of the fastest growth rates in the developed world125.
Resource consumption in the US is generally proportionate to its economic growth.

From a sustainability perspective, though, the problem with the US economy is that its growth appears to
be almost directly proportional to resource intensity. Each time the country grows its economy, its resourceconsumption and carbon emissions increase. So, although total emissions actually declined from 2007 to
2009, this was largely due to the drop in US economic production at that time.
Another challenge the US faces is reducing the resource impact of its industrial sector which currently
contributes over a fifth of the country’s total emissions, coming third behind energy and transport. These
three sectors combined make up almost 80% of US emissions.126
If resource consumption and economic growth are not decoupled in the US, then its economic prosperity
will keep on exerting pressure on resources. As the world’s largest economy, what happens in the US, ofcourse, has global implications. Overall, we find that Smart Manufacturing, Smart Energy, Smart Building
and Smart Logistics offer the US the largest opportunities to cut its emissions through the use of ICT.
Figure 55: US - Sustainability priorities for United States

The US needs to decouple its growth from resource consumption. Trend analyses
show that the country’s emissions have gone down every time the economy contracted – and vice versa. From 1990 to 2013, US emissions increased by about 6%.127
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) need to be reduced. As recently as 2013, the total VMTin the US was close to 3 trillion miles, while VMT per capita reduced consistently for a
decade to nearly 9400 miles.128
Emissions from US homes and businesses have generally been increasing since1990. Most of these emissions are from HVAC and Lightning and they are set to increase as weather patterns appear to get harsher.

125 The Economist (May 2015)
126 USEPA Sources of GHG Emissions http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources.html#ref2
127 Trends in Global CO

2 emissions, 2014, http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/jrc-2014-trends-in-global-co2emissions-2014-report-93171.pdf
128 US State Smart Transport http://www.ssti.us/2014/02/vmt-drops-ninth-year-dots-taking-notice/

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –89

Figure 56: US - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts

ICT coverage and accessibility in the US is strong, with already very high internet and computing device
penetration. In 2013, over 60% of internet connections took place via smartphone129. With such high penetration rates, the rapid adoption of smarter technologies at scale could really help the US save time andresources while reducing pollution.

What ICT could do for the US by 2030
In September 2013, President Obama launched the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership Steering Committee 2.0 (AMP 2.0), a national, cross-sector initiative aimed at securing US leadership in smart manufacturing technologies. The aim is to create high-tech jobs to drive international competitiveness.
Technology intervention in several business sectors has an abatement potential of almost 1.75 Gt
emissions in the US.

By 2030, the uptake of advanced technology in manufacturing could help the US manufacturing industry
in numerous ways. Higher productivity from smarter technologies could save between $1.5-2 billion and
600 million MWh.
Likewise, by 2030, ICT interventions in the logistics and transport sectors could help the US cut almost
0.2Gt of emissions a year. This can be done by deploying tools like Machine-to-Machine communication
devices, traffic forecasting software, intelligent sensors and connected vehicles. Better management ofroad freight would also release at least 16 million m2 of warehouse space.
Personal mobility can be made more efficient and connected by technologies like car and ride sharing
portals, real-time parking applications, traffic advisory displays and real time speed limits. The combined
fuel saving potential of these applications is close to 17 billion liters – made possible by taking 10 million
cars off US roads.

129 Neilsen http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2013/mobile-majority--u-s--smartphone-ownership-tops-60-.html

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –90

By 2030, ICT enabled buildings could mean collective energy savings to the 1 billion MWh and monetarysavings of $71 billion from household energy costs alone. Smarter buildings not only save energy, but also
help conserve other resources, and our modeling shows that ICT could also save almost 13 billion liters offresh water and avoid about 11 billion liters of waste water in US buildings.
We also find $30 billion in potential savings from avoided traffic congestion and 13 billion hours to be saved
from avoided shopping trips using ICT as an enabler.
Taken together, these ICT innovations could cut as much as 1.75 Gt CO2e each year by 2030, with Smart
Manufacturing, Smart Energy, Smart Building and Smart Logistics solutions representing around 70% ofthat saving.

Figure 57: US - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –91

5 Call to action: There are three stakeholder groups which are the mostcritical in accelerating ICT adoption
In our final chapter, we examine the role of what we see as the three key stakeholder groups in speedingup the ICT revolution and the roll-out of the solutions we have described in the earlier chapters. As wehave set out, the potential benefits of ICT are enormous, for business, for the environment and for society
at large. But whether all of these benefits will be realized depends on collective action of key stakeholders
going forward.
For us, the vital groups that will decide the rate and extent of ICT adoption, along with the realization of its
benefits, are policy makers, business leaders and consumers. Leveraging ICT’s ability to contribute tomeeting global sustainability challenges requires shared responsibility and collective action. The following
section looks at each of these groups individually, specifying what they stand to gain from ICT, and how
they can contribute to realizing its promise.

5.1

Policy makers

The case for policy makers
In 2012, GeSI's SMARTer2020 report showed how the increased use of ICT such as video conferencing
and smart building management, could cut global emissions by nearly 17% compared to the 2020 forecast,amounting to $1.9 trillion in gross energy and fuel savings and a reduction of over 9Gt of CO2e. This was
the equivalent of more than seven times the ICT sector’s emissions at the time.
In this new report we argue that the scene is set for ICT to be deployed to fully decouple economic growthfrom carbon intensity and resource use by 2030 and to deliver genuinely sustainable development in arange of sectors and countries across the world.
SMARTer2030 is also the first report of its kind to examine the impact that ICT can have on the economy,society and the environment. Among the many findings in this report, generated from new and comprehensive modelling, we have shown that the roll-out of ICT – in the sectors and countries we have examined –could save up to 25 billion barrels of oil, 332 trillion liters of water and 91 million tons of paper. We also see
a viable future in which 1.6 billion people have access to ICT-enabled healthcare-services and half a billion
have access to e-learning solutions.
Naturally, specific policy requirements to enable these benefits will vary by sector and it is important to take
into account the differences between developing, emerging and developed markets. However, across all
sectors and markets, there is a clear need for governments around the world to incentivize investments in
key ICT infrastructure and to promote a fair, balanced and consistent regulatory approach to ICT that promotes innovation and investment, protects intellectual property rights and ensures consumer privacy andsecurity.
Likewise, it is clear that in order to capitalize on the full sustainability potential of ICT, policymakers needto provide the right conditions to ensure that emissions savings from any specific ICT innovation do notlead to rebound effects within the macro-economy, as has been the case in the past.
This report has taken a holistic look at the potential of ICT to meet global development challenges and toenhance development in each of the three areas examined. In order to live up to ICT’s promise, it is essential that policymakers take a holistic approach too – and we therefore provide three overall recommendations for decision-makers around the world.
1. The need to set clear emissions targets based on levels of economic development2014 saw global emissions stagnate for the first time ever, outside of economic slowdowns or recessions.
This is welcome news, but with global growth expected to continue to pick up this year and beyond, andCopyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –92with carbon intensity still too high, we could well expect to see global emissions grow by 2.5% next year130.
There is therefore not much to indicate that the world is on course to avoid an average temperature rise ofover 2 degrees by 2050, as the IPCC has warned.
Our report has shown that ICT can decouple economic growth from carbon intensity, but the evidence ofthe past underlines the need for a strong global target regime to keep emissions in check, to incentivize
the decarbonization of economic growth and to provide certainty to investors.
We need to see emissions limits set across economies but we must also see detailed sector or technology
specific targets (e.g. for fuel efficiency on new cars and buildings, for decarbonizing the energy andtransport sectors and to decarbonize the ICT industry itself by 40%, even though its emissions pale bycomparison to the amount of emissions savings ICT can unlock).
Importantly, we also need to see the roll-out of a rigorous enforcement and monitoring regime, and we lookforward to policymakers defining this at the Paris COP21 meeting in December 2015.
Finally, in order to meet these ambitious goals, we want to see governments leveraging both public funds
and private sector finance on investment in low carbon assets, introducing robust and carefully designed
carbon pricing and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.
2. The need to create incentives to invest in broadband infrastructure deployment
There is an overwhelming need to expand the scope of broadband connectivity across the developingworld especially. Joined to this, is the imperative of widening access to affordable ICT, and for speedingup mobile penetration in the areas where it is still under 50%. In India, for example, there is a clear needand opportunity to expand broadband to hundreds of millions of people, as smart devices and smartphones now proliferate among the population. We believe that universal service funds (USF) are a good
way to do this.
In order to reap the benefits of e-learning, it is crucial that we step up the global connectivity of schools andlibraries, both to increase digital literacy and to drive adoption rates. We also need to improve ICT education
itself among young people, so they can contribute to this growing sector and co-create the services they
will come to rely on. We also think there is a significant opportunity, and need, to increase the uptake of
ICT solutions, and improve digital literacy, among women in the developing world.
To achieve all this, we believe it will become increasingly necessary to reduce the level of taxation on digital
devices and even to consider the use of smart subsidies for low income households, to encourage ICT
uptake at scale and to empower citizens.
Our overall recommendation is for ICT to form a key part of growth strategies around the world. With coordinated uptake at scale, driven by partnerships across borders and sectors, it is likely that many of thetechnologies discussed above could reach maturity faster than their predecessors. We encourage muchfurther deployment of cross-sector R&D and welcome efforts by international institutions to spur further
investment at all stages, but especially at the deployment stage for mature technologies at scale.
3. The need to adopt a fair, balanced and consistent regulatory approach to ICT services
In order to speed up the roll out of ICT globally, it’s essential that the market framework is set to ensure
total confidence in the intellectual property regime and the licensing rights for abatement technology. We
also believe that more needs to be done to harmonize certification schemes and share best practice as amatter of course.
Regulators need to work more closely with individual business sectors to define internationally recognizedethical and technical standards to ensure trustworthiness in ICT. Data accuracy and security are going to

130 According to PwC’s Low Carbon Economy Index , 2014

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –93become watchwords of the new economy, especially with regard to e-health solutions and smart grids. So
it is essential that further strides are made on cyber-security, data security and privacy.
All governments and institutions need to work to create a regulatory and political framework that firmly
addresses current concerns with intellectual property rights protection, the prevalence of software piracy,
the efficiency and independence of the judiciary and the efficiency of the law-making process.
Finally, more needs to be done to set up an intellectual properly regime that encourages collaboration on
R&D across sectors and borders. We fully expect the number of cross-sector partnerships to rise as bestpractice is shared and ICT is rolled out at scale and at a faster rate than before. The right regulatory frameworks need to be in place to ensure that this happens as fast and as cost-effectively as possible.
Conclusion
Policymakers have a great opportunity to meet a number of global policy challenges through the enablingrole of ICT. ICT can empower citizens, drive economic growth, transform key public services and help
decarbonize both developed and developing economies. Governments need to ensure that ICT is deployedspecifically in order to meet sustainability challenges as well as to reshape economies and improve qualityof life. Our research and our collaboration with partners tells us that on the three issues we have highlighted,
more work needs to be done to heighten confidence, simplify regulation across borders and re-commit tolegally binding and ambitious sector-by-sector decarbonization targets. If this is coupled to a renewed drive
to spur investment in broadband and reduce costs for smart tech then we are convinced that the promiseof ICT will be met.

5.2

Business

The case for business
There is a major digital transformation taking place in the global economy, opening up huge opportunities
for business growth. The most striking illustration of this is the recent and rapid growth in ICT enabledbusiness models, with companies that are recognizing these early becoming some of the most innovativeand successful of recent years.
Since the 2012 publication of SMARTer2020, we have witnessed the remarkable growth of tech-driven andasset-light companies like Uber and AirBnB, as well as the integration of smart solutions into people’s
working lives, homes and public services. In both cases, as we have highlighted, the individual is empowered through ICT, receiving access to more detailed information that is relevant to their needs, delivered
securely, affordably and flexibly. As digital density continues apace, these disruptive trends will be magnified. Naturally, some businesses will see this as a challenge and perhaps even as a threat. But we areconvinced that the overall benefits to the economy and to business in general are enormous. And that is
before we factor in the environmental and social benefits we have modelled.
Our headline figures – derived from thorough modelling and extrapolation we performed across countries
and sectors – tell us that the global economy stands to gain $6.5 trillion in revenue from rolling out ICTenabled solutions, while generating almost $5 trillion in cost savings. The ICT sector itself stands to gain
$2 trillion in revenue by 2030, while additional revenue opportunities for other sector stakeholders are
expected to amount up to $4.5 trillion.
The key for businesses then – of all sizes, in all parts of the world – is to make sure that they work within
and across their sectors and with policymakers to realize this economic potential.
In essence, we believe businesses need to explore the following three priority areas:
1) Explore how ICT-enabled solutions can open up new sources of revenue and growth opportunities foryour core business while delivering societal or environmental value2) Explore the potential of sector-specific cost savings made possible by ICT-enabled solutions and, likewise, be willing to collaborate and work within your sector and/or adjust your business model to realizethem
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –943) Commit to bolder action on emissions mitigation within your own organization and explore ways ICT canhelp you to meet your targets
In what follows we return to our eight sectors, highlighting and emphasizing the commercial benefits ICT
can bring to each.

ICT-enabled revenue opportunities and cost savings across sectors
In each of the eight sectors we have identified a huge potential for businesses to gain new revenue andavoid costs by systematically rolling-out practical ICT-enabled solutions.
Exhibit 59 shows our modelling of the revenues to be gained and costs avoided in each of the sectors wehave analyzed. In other words, it shows the opportunity ICT can bring to business.
Exhibit 58: Call to Action Business - Potential revenue opportunities and cost savings across sectors

The healthcare sector stands to gain over $200 billion of revenue from rolling out E-Health solutions, while
the ICT-sectors could generate $126 billion in additional revenue from wearable tech designed for the
remote monitoring of patients and the managing individual health data. Likewise, efficiency gains throughsmarter logistics, better patient data, freeing up of clinician time and physical resources could save thesector $83 billion.
Our latest research finds that E-Learning could generate more than $0.4 trillion for educational institutions
alone and $88 billion for the ICT sector through the sale of enabling E-Learning platforms and technologies.
The potential cost savings to the education sector come from expected efficiency improvements, a reduction in travel and the digitalization of learning materials and facilities – freeing up capacity, resources and
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time. In addition, our modelling indicates a reduction in expenditure per pupil of over $2000. Overall growthin the sector is expected to rise almost exponentially as more students gain computer science degrees andaccess to affordable smart technology.
By 2030, we expect renewable energy companies to generate over $800 billion of revenue through smart
energy solutions. ICT companies will also benefit, (with potential revenues of $2.1 billion) from the roll-out
of smart grid sensors. The wider energy sector can also generate enormous cost savings through improved
grid efficiency and by reducing system redundancy.
In the housing sector, our modeling shows that smart home installations could generate $185 billion ofrevenue for the energy sector, while revenue gains for ICT companies in providing home connectivity areeven higher, at $274 billion. Buildings are still one of the biggest operational expenses for organizations so
there are significant incentives to maximize the potential for ICT to reduce costs here. In fact, because of
the current wastefulness of many buildings, this is the sector with expected cost savings higher than expected revenues generated from the use of ICT, with potential energy savings of $360 billion annually.
Smart agriculture can increase agricultural productivity while reducing the amount of food wasted acrossdifferent stages in the supply chain (one third of all food production at a current estimate). This could generate $1.8 trillion of additional revenues for farmers across the world and around $53 billion in revenues
from the sale of soil sensors by the ICT industry.
When it comes to mobility, the logistics sector could benefit from smart technologies to the tune of $174
billion. We have also modeled a scenario in which ICT could save businesses and individuals an annual$600 billion in costs associated with cars, including fuel consumption costs.
The trends summarized under e-business (e-commerce, e-work and e-banking) are already transforming work, commerce and banking. Workplaces are benefiting from smart collaboration and communication
tools like voiceover IP, telecommuting, videoconferencing and augmented reality. By 2030, we expect thecompanies providing these services to be generating an annual revenue of $7.5 trillion, while saving theircustomers billions in travel costs.
Lastly, we expect smart manufacturing solutions to create additional revenues of $9.6 billion across all
sectors, with the ICT industry expecting to reap revenues of $3 billion from smart industrial machinery.

Call to action: Lead on and encourage others towards bolder action
Business needs to lead by example and to ensure it does what it can under current systemic and competitive conditions. However, we recognize that individual businesses can only go so far in realizing the substantial benefits set out in this report. To achieve the full potential ICT presents businesses, we believe
cross-sector and multi-stakeholder collaboration will be key.
Businesses should engage with stakeholders within their sector and with policymakers and consumers.
However, in our view, these cross-sector collaborations will only be successful if business itself leads by
example; going further in order to drive progress. To this end, it is very important that businesses seethemselves as part of the low carbon economy and set their own emissions and other environmental targets.
As part of our research, we have surveyed a range of specific recommendations to businesses from aseries of business coalitions131.
We therefore set out the following steps we believe businesses need to take to realize the full potential wehave modeled in this report:
Emissions Targets:•

Set your own emissions reduction targets, take action to reduce your industry’s emissions in linewith the 2 degree target and be transparent about your progress

131 The coalitions we have examined include We Mean Business, Partners of the Business and Climate Summit, andothersCopyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –96•Integrate internal carbon prices to affect investment decisions and prepare for regulated carbon
pricing

Investment:••

Aim to accelerate low carbon investment by the private sector and work with policymakers to ensurethat public investment is leveraged in the most effective way possible
Take action and make investments to increase your energy efficiency and the energy efficiency of
your staff

Innovation:••

Switch to 100% procurement of low-carbon electricity
Develop low carbon technology partnerships with other organizations to speed the deployment of
low carbon and breakthrough technologies

Collaboration:
•
•
•
•
•

Collaborate within your sector to reduce emissions in your supply chains and – importantly – in the
supply chains of your competitors
Commit to responsible corporate engagement on climate policy and to aligning your public affairs
and sustainability strategies
Collaborate with peers on low carbon commodity sourcing standards to, for example, eliminate
deforestation from their value chains
Publicly advocate the importance of carbon pricing through policy mechanisms that take into account country-specific conditions
Engage consumers and provide them with products and services that continue to push the boundaries of energy efficiency as well as other sustainability advantages

Monitoring and Reporting:
•
•

5.3

Publish the carbon footprint of your portfolios and set clear targets to reduce it (with particular relevance to investors)
Enhance existing internal mechanisms by which to improve transparency and accountability in monitoring climate ambition and action

Consumers

The case for consumers
The ICT-enabled technologies outlined in this report could genuinely transform people’s lives for the better.
The world is on the brink of a digital revolution, disrupting the status quo at unprecedented scale and speed.
Across the world, we predict that over 2.5 billion additional people will be connected to broadband internetby 2030. A total of 1.6 billion people will have access to E-Healthcare solutions and close to half a billion
people will study online through on-demand E-Learning courses. As the cost of smart technology drops,
ever more people will be able to share in these benefits, with many of them coming from families whichhave never had access to quality healthcare or education.
The digital revolution will empower people in three main ways. First, ICT places citizens at the center ofthe new knowledge economy, providing them with the right tools and information to manage their own lives.
Secondly, ICT has the potential to provide people all over the world with access to essential services suchas healthcare, education, banking and mobility. As extreme poverty (people living below $1.25/day) continues to fall, down to 17% today from 52%in 1981, ICT becomes increasingly affordable to more people
and, once connected, offers them a variety of opportunities to further boost their income, livelihoods andwell-being.
Third, the ICT-enabled world of 2030 envisioned in our research, sees huge time saving opportunities
through seamless mobility services, fewer traffic jams, better route planning, and a reduced need to travel
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to work, shops, hospitals or other facilities. Connected traffic networks, improved public transport and theadvent of driverless, electric vehicles are expected to contribute to a vastly improved, safer and more efficient urban space with significantly reduced pollution levels and faster emergency response times.
But citizens and consumers are not just passive recipients of this. In order to realize the economic, socialand environmental benefits and opportunities offered by ICT, consumers have to take an active role. We
have identified three main ways in which consumers can contribute to accelerating the adoption of ICT andrealizing the associated benefits.
What consumers should do:Secure access: The most important thing consumers need is access to reliable broadband infrastructure
and they should pressurize their local authorities and national governments to provide it. We have shown
here that ICT-enabled devices that provide access to the e-services can save much more money than they
cost (as much as four times in fact), but they need to be rolled out at scale. There are obviously hugebenefits to governments of widening access to E-Health and E-Leaning opportunities, but citizens need topush for themChoose digital: Consumer buying decisions and the sustainable use of products and services are important levers to reaching mass adoption of those services. So we encourage consumers to use their purchasing power to choose e-services wherever possible. We have set out the huge personal benefits tohouseholds in terms of time and money saved from choosing e-services but, to speed up the process, theempowered consumer needs to continue to promote the brands and platforms which provide the best value
Think Digital: Finally, consumers should adopt a mind-set that recognizes the opportunities the digital
economy can bring to them and their families. Consumers should be willing to get involved in the innovative
approaches to education, healthcare, transport and work that we have laid out. Once consumers realizethat they are in the driving seat of the digital economy, they will be better able to reap its benefits. Consumers that adopt innovative ICT solutions early can start accelerating this revolution by co-creating products
and services themselves. We call this “becoming digital”.
In short, our message to consumers is simple: Be part of the SMARTer2030 story, join us and take action!

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6 Appendix
6.1

Acknowledgements

The Global e-Sustainability Initiative and Accenture Strategy thank the many experts engaged throughout
the duration of this effort for generously providing their time, insights, and feedback to strengthen the qualityof this report.
SMARTer2030 team:
Alcatel-Lucent: Tom Okrasinski
AT&T: Tim Fleming; Amanda Moore
BT: Gabrielle Ginér; Steve Kelly; Steven Moore; Mark Shackleton; Siân Wynn-Jones
Deutsche Telekom: Andreas Kröhling; Luis Neves
Fujitsu: Hiroko Ioka; Andrew Lewis
Huawei: Anders Andrae; Francisco Da Silva;
ITU: Cristina Bueti; Paolo Gemma
KPN: Marga Blom; Hans de Vries
Microsoft: Helena Castren; Lori Harnick; Joan Krajewski; Michelle LancasterNokia: Hans-Otto Scheck
Telenor: Jan Kristensen
Teliasonera: Dag Lundén; Henrik Weinestedt
Telstra: Caroline Baxter; Pauline Gregg
Verizon: Emily Bosland; Chris Lloyd
Accenture Strategy: Philipp Buddemeier; Lucas Cervera; Iñigo Elorza; Christian Hoffmann; Alexander
Holst; Fermín Hurtado Martinez; Caterina Kausch; Justin Keeble; Thomas Krick; Christoph Löffler (Fjord
Team); Andy Moore (Fjord Team); Jaime Moreno; Harry Morrison; Edward Robinson (writing support)
Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP): Janpeter Beckmann;
Yang Deng; Georgina Guillen-Hanson; Cheryl Hicks; Michael Kuhndt; Mariana Nicolau
GeSI: Danaé List; Chiara Venturini

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99

6.2

Table of Figures

Figure 1: CO2e abatement potential by sector (2030)
Figure 2: ICT benefits factor in 2020 and 2030 (Gt CO2e)
Figure 3: ICT-enabled revenue opportunities (2030)
Figure 4: ICT-enabled cost saving opportunities (2030)
Figure 5: Environment - CO2e abatement potential by sector (2030)
Figure 6: Environment - CO2e abatement potential by use case (2030)
Figure 7: Environment - ICT emissions footprint (2030)
Figure 8: Environment - ICT enablement factor (2030)
Figure 9: Environment - Environmental benefits of ICT beyond CO2e (2030)
Figure 10: Economic – Global economic benefits of ICT-enabled solutions (2030)
Figure 11: Economic – ICT-enabled revenue opportunities across sectors (2030)
Figure 12: Economic –ICT-enabled cost saving opportunities (2030)
Figure 13: Economic - Return on investment: Case examples
Figure 14: Social – Social benefits of ICT-enabled solutions (2030)
Figure 15: Social – Social benefits across sectors
Figure 16: Health- Future of E-Health: Technology vision for 2030
Figure 17: Health - Benefits from E-Health
Figure 18: Learning – Future of E-Learning: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 19: Learning – The Benefits of E-Learning
Figure 20: Buildings - Future of Smart Buildings: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 21: Buildings - Benefits of Smart Building
Figure 22: Food – Future of Smart Agriculture: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 23: Food - Benefits of Smart Agriculture
Figure 24: Mobility - Future of Smart Mobility and Logistics: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 25: Mobility - Benefits of Smart Mobility and Logistics
Figure 26: Energy - Future of Smart Energy: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 27: Energy - Benefits from Smart Grid
Figure 28: E-Business – Future of E-Work, e-commerce and e-banking: Technology vision for 2030
Figure 29: E-Business - Benefits of E-Business
Figure 30: Manufacturing - Future of Smart Manufacturing: Technology Vision for 2030
Figure 31: Manufacturing - Benefits of Smart Manufacturing
Figure 32: Australia - Sustainability priorities for Australia
Figure 33: Australia - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 34: Australia - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 35: Brazil - Sustainability priorities for Brazil
Figure 36: Brazil – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 37: Brazil - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 38: Canada - Sustainability priorities for Canada
Figure 39: Canada – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 40: Canada - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 41: China - Sustainability priorities for China
Figure 42: China – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 43: China - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 44: Germany - Sustainability priorities for Germany
Figure 45: Germany – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 46: Germany - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 47: India - Sustainability priorities for India
Figure 48: India – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 49: India - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 50: Kenya – Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 51: Kenya - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 52: UK - Sustainability priorities for United Kingdom
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9
10
12
12
17
18
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20
20
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30
33
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100

Figure 53: UK - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Figure 54: UK - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 55: US - Sustainability priorities for United States
Figure 56: US - ICT can play a significant role in reducing different sector's sustainability impacts
Figure 57: US - Total CO2e Abatement Potential of ICT across sectors
Exhibit 58: Call to Action Business - Potential revenue opportunities and cost savings across sectors

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88
88
89
90
91
95

101

6.3

List of case studies in the report

List of case studies provided in the report
Chapter

Case study

Company

Connected Car

Deutsche Telekom

Hydropoint

AT&T

Networkfleet Arkansas

Verizon

Surrey Police

BT

Connecting Communities

BT

Emergency.lu

Microsoft

Humber NHS Foundation

BT

HipLink

AT&T

Skype in the Classroom

Microsoft

Enetune-BEMS

Fujitsu

Smart Metering

Deutsche Telekom

Farm Cloud Computing

Fujitsu

Robust Agriculture

Fujitsu

BLS Network Fleet

Verizon

CityNext

Microsoft

Smart Parking

BT

Smart Grid

HuaweieSmart Systems

Microsoft

Dyanmic Workplace

Deutsche Telekom

Smart inverters PV

Huawei

FJVPS

Fujitsu

2.2 Environment

2.3 Economic

2.4 Social

3.1 Health
3.2 Learning
3.3 Building

3.4 Food

3.5 Mobility

3.6 Energy
3.7 E-Business
3.8 Manufacturing

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102

6.4

Methodology overview

As with any research program looking to produce a viable forecast for a 15 year horizon, our modelling is
open to uncertainties and contingencies. We have tried to make our assumptions and the technical andpolicy requirements on which they rest as clear as possible, both throughout the report and more specifically in this appendix. However, we are fully aware that our scenarios remain only one of a broad range ofpossible trajectories.
Our modelling uses 3 main variables to produce our estimates, consisting of the input data used, the adoption rates expected and the sustainability impact, e.g. in terms of energy efficiency. Each of these main
variables is exposed to uncertainties as illustrated below:•••

Uncertainties regarding the input data used (e.g., population in 2030, CO2 intensity of electricity in
2030, number of households in 2030, GDP growth up to 2030, etc.)
Uncertainties regarding the adoption rate of ICT (e.g., how many households will use smart metersand smart appliances in 2030)
Uncertainties regarding the technology impact (e.g., what are the energy savings enabled by smart
grid technologies, smart meters and smart appliances in 2030)

Each variable has a significant impact and together, these 3 main types of uncertainties create a broad
range of possible outcomes. Therefore, we encourage caution in reviewing our estimates and emphasizethat our estimates reflect just one possible scenario.
We have aimed to be as transparent as possible in explaining our steps, highlighting the challenges andexploring the prospects. We set out these steps throughout the report and also in this methodology appendix.

Unit considered to address greenhouse gas emissions abatement
The modelling approach for greenhouse gas abatement has been performed taking into account the calculation of equivalent carbon dioxide emissions (also addressed as CO2e). This unit considers, apartfrom CO2 emissions abatement, the reduction in the emissions of other gases that have a similar greenhouse effect (and that can be expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent units using a conversion factor),
although the majority of the potential emissions abated are carbon dioxide emissions.
The main advantage of using CO2e to calculate the greenhouse gas abatement is the possibility of aggregating all the results, being able to express the total impact in one number.

CO2e baseline (Global & ICT)•

Global CO2e baselineo Accenture has included, where feasible, scope 1 (direct), scope 2 (indirect from consumption ofenergy), and scope 3 emissions (all others related). Baseline fixed at 63.5 Gt CO2eo IPCC & WRI used as baseline sources• ICT CO2e baselineo ICTs included: End-user devices, data centers and networks
End-user devices: PCs, tablets, smartphones, mobiles, 3D printers
Excluded end-user devices: TVs and regular printerso Other studies132 come up with different results, taking into account different assumptions in energy
consumption and data traffic.
132

Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –103

o How the majority of TVs are used today would not justify including TVs in the ICT emissions baseline. However, the increase in convergence and the spread of internet enabled TVs increasingly
allow TVs to play an enabling role

6.5

Approach to modelling

The Impact Modelling Team (IMT) started modelled ICT’s impact based on a set of twelve use cases (mayappear as “UC” in following bullets). The twelve Use Cases considered are listed in Figure 1 of the appendix.
•

The Use Cases are a combination of ICT technologies that, individually, do not necessarily enable
any benefits (and they may not be commonly used alone), but combined can be used to obtain environmental, social and economic benefits
o I.E.: a sensor itself may not enable benefits, but combined with specific software connecting it toother sensors + management tools (hardware and software) may enable energy savings in buildingso ICTs that have been considered in the modelling process include, among others:
Smart devices - IoT
M2M: Wi-Fi, 4G
Cloud and data repositories
GPS
Sensors
Management and forecasting software
A full understanding of the technologies included under each Use Case, and the stakeholders
involved (either as impact drivers or impacted stakeholders) has been crucial to determine thepossible impacts of each Use Case (determine which metrics to calculate in each Use Case andthe impact that the Use Case has on them)o IMT assures a MECE approach (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) to each metricimpacted:
All impacts considered are divided, if applicable, in different impact levers that together conformthe full impact on the metric
There is no overlapping between these leverso Each UC was modelled for the 9 focus countries selected: USA, UK, China, India, Canada, Germany, Brazil, Australia and Kenya, obtaining specific results for each countryo The results from the 9 focus countries were extrapolated to obtain global figures, as we calculated
a global impact from these UCs. Extrapolation was done using:A worldwide country grouping: 4 groups were defined, in which at least two of the focus countries were included in each group, accounting for similarities in macro criteria
Extrapolation of each Use Case: using use case ad-hoc criteria, a result for each of the fourgroups was obtained, and these 4 results were summed up in order to obtain a global ad-hoc
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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –104

Appendix - Figure 1: Use case overview and list of extrapolation criteria used in each Use CaseoModelling, general information• A model with modeling results per focus country and the ability for global aggregation was created– A model aggregating all Use Case results was developed, with general and Use Case specificelements– One of the elements refers to Global aggregated cross-Use Case metric, reflecting the resulting
amounts per Use Case and the % that supposes each Use Case, the resulting amount per country and the % that supposes each country, and the Global abatement vs Global rest of the world(RoW) abatement
Reallocation of the CO2e abatement between Use Cases is considered here as well
• One element was created for each Use Case and contains: GHG abatement and % that supposes each country, specific and cross metrics of the Use Case and the extrapolation of the 9countries to the rest of the world

o An additional model was created for calculating the number of additional people connected by 2030
(Connecting the unconnected):• Reflects calculations on the additional ICT connections obtained by 2030, and economic
impacts of these. This file consists of three elements:• "Connecting the unconnected", which calculates the amount of population (per country)
that will have ICT access by 2030,• "ICT revenues", which focuses on additional revenues to be made from new ICT connections, and• "Calculations – new connections", which shows step by step all assumptions made toreach final figures. To obtain the final number of connecting the unconnected people, wehave calculated the average of the four approaches explained in the slides

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105

o

Specific Use Case models•

A model for each Use Case (UC) has been developed, with one element with global results, 9
tabs with focus country details, and 1 element with the extrapolation•

Each model explains how CO2e abatement figures and specific metrics for each of the countries
were obtained, including the data, sources, assumptions, and calculations that support it. In
some cases, to obtain the result of CO2e abatement and other metrics, one or more change
levers could be used for the calculations of the metric impact•

In addition to CO2e abatement, other metrics were calculated (e.g. fuel saved or water saved).
Specific metrics for each UC are identified and calculated for each focus country. Some ofthese metrics will be specific metrics for the UC, while others will be cross Use Case metrics,
common in two or more Use Cases (and that will be aggregated in the global aggregation
model). An overview of these metrics is provided in Figure 3.

o All Use Case models consisted of the following blocks:•

Part 1

Lever
Each change lever information is divided into 3 main categories: Impact areas: referring to the areas that affect the selected metrics (specific for each UC, same for eachcountry in the UC), Change levers: sub category of the previous refers to the direct
impact source, and the Baseline and Impact Results: with future estimations by 2030
and potential emission abatement•

Part 2Input
For each UC specific model (same structure for every country), a series of specific
UC inputs obtained from IMT research and data received from the Technical Working
Group (TWG) has been included
Combining these inputs (multiplications in most cases) allowed us to obtain the baseline impacted. All models contain comments, sources used, assumptions made andother relevant aspects, such as extrapolation method used•

Part 3

Impact and adoption rate
Each UC specific model (same structure for every country), following the “Inputs”,
has an input for impact column and an adoption rate column. Input for Impact points
out the impact that the Use Case has on the metric analyzed (in %). This % is constant between countries, as it corresponds to the Use Case
3 adoption rates are shown (2015, 2030 and 2030 BAU+), representing the % oftarget audience of the use case in each case. Comments concerning assumptions
and sources employed are included in each model. Two different adoption rate
curves were used: one for OECD countries and another for those Non-OECD countries. Moreover, a more optimistic scenario was calculated for each of the Use Cases(BAU+)

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –106Appendix - Figure 2: Illustrative calculation tree for one Use Case and countryo Extrapolation model• Grouping criteria
All countries worldwide were categorized into 4 groups based on similarities basedon 4 macro criteria: GDP per capita, CO2e per capita, number of internet users andenergy use. At least 2 of the 9 SMARTer2030 focus countries were included in eachof the groups• Use Case specific extrapolation
Final extrapolation for each UC has been done taking into account specific criteria
related to each case
The final results from the extrapolation criteria, show the percentages that the focus
countries represent in each of the 4 country groups. The results obtained in themodelling exercise is extrapolated using these 4 groups and the weight of the focus
countries in each group.
o Metrics, general information: apart from calculating CO2e abatement, the IMT has calculated:– Global aggregated metrics: obtained adding results from two or more Use Cases– Use Case-specific metrics: specific metrics that are calculated only for one Use CaseAn overview of these metrics is provided in Figure 3 of the appendix.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –107

Appendix - Figure 3: Complete list of additional metrics calculated

The approach followed for calculating each of the metrics has been either:– Top-down approach: only for connecting the unconnected and revenues from connecting the unconnected– Bottom-up approach: rest of the metrics, calculated in Use Case excel models, fromcountry level to global level

Environmental metrics
Apart from CO2e abatement, the IMT has calculated the savings of other resources: fuel, energy, water,wood, paper and space. Moreover, some Use Cases additional specific results were obtained, such as
the reduction of waste water from Smart Building. A list of the additional environmental benefits calculated
is provided in Figure 4 of the appendix.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –108

Appendix - Figure 4: List of additional environmental metrics calculatedoOil barrels saved are calculated translating the fuel and energy saved and the energy produced with renewable energy sources into oil barrels required for the production of those resources

Social metrics
IMT has also identified social benefits obtained due to growth in the use of ICT.
oConnecting the unconnected:
Four different approaches have been taken
The final result is the average of all four approaches
People connected as of 2015 estimated in 3.6 billion
New connections between 2015 and 2030: 2.5 billionoE-Learning participants: we have considered participants, not E-Learning degrees, as not all
participants will finish their studiesoHours saved, that may be used in other purposes

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –109

Appendix - Figure 5: List of social metrics calculated

Economic metrics
In addition to environmental and social benefits, ICT could also generate economic benefits. These benefits
are divided into:o ICT sector revenues:
Revenues from connecting the unconnected, taking into account:• Annual device cost
Smartphone• Annual expenditure on connection

ARPU

Other benefits for the ICT sector: to avoid overlapping with connecting the unconnected revenues, only Use Case specific ICT revenues are taken into accounto Benefits for specific stakeholders: benefits enabled by the Use Cases related to stakeholders.
These benefits can be either cost savings or additional revenueso Average additional loading rate and average reduction of empty runs (both coming from Smart
Logistics), are intermediate results, which led to final resultso Translation of environmental results into economic results, using current prices (2015) of fuel,energy, water and paper
A list of all economic metrics calculated is provided in Figure 6 of the appendix.

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –110

Appendix - Figure 6: List of economic metrics calculated

Double counting avoidance
Double counting of benefits and results has been avoided in all stages of the impact modelling work:o

In the CO2e baseline (IPCC forecast for global emissions in 2030): SMARTer2030 avoids
double counting of ICT’s abatement opportunity with IPCC’s BAU emissions forecast by analyzing the type of levers considered for the IPCC BAU forecast. Our analysis finds that IPCC
has considered abatement from integrating solar and wind energy into the grid. SMARTer2030
has calculated the abatement from integrating wind and solar energy into the grid to amount to
1.8 Gt CO2e in 2030. When we express the total ICT-enabled abatement potential for 2030 we
include the 1.8 Gt CO2e to comprehensively describe the full impact of ICT. However, when
we express the contribution ICT can make to reduce emissions from IPCC’s BAU forecast weonly consider those levers that come on top of IPCC has considered already. After removing
the 1.8 Gt abatement from integrating solar and wind energy we find that ICT can reduce IPCCs
BAU forecast by 10.3 Gt CO2e in 2030. As a result, ICT can roughly maintain CO2e at expected
for 2030 at 2015 levels (IPCC expects an increase of 11.1 Gt and ICT can reduce this by 10.3
Gt)o

Between Use Cases - baseline: the results of the impact of one Use Case can have influence
on designing the baseline for other Use Cases
I.E.: total km set as baseline for the Traffic Control & Optimization and Connected Private
Transportation Use Cases, taking into account previous reductions from E-Work, E-Learning, E-Banking, E-Commerce and E-Health, avoiding double counting of abatement 27%
reduction in the total km travelled, which are not included in baseline calculations of some
Use Caseso

Between Use Cases – addressable abatement: in some cases, for clarity purposes, theabatement obtained by one of the levers of a Use Case is addressed by another Use Case,
integrating the abatement in the most relevant Use Case. To avoid double counting, this result
has been always calculated only once.

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I.E.: the abatement obtained by the reduction of car manufacturing due to the Connected
Private Transportation Use Case, has been reallocated under Smart Manufacturing, as thissecond Use Case aggregates all the abatement potential related to industrial manufacturing
processesoPlease refer to the “Additional assumptions” point in each of the Use Cases methodological description for more detail on avoiding overlap

Rebound Effect:
SMARTer2030 modeling team has reviewed the possible impact from rebound effect. The modeling teamhas made a preliminary assessment of the possible rebound effect based on two approaches: First, using
use case-specific rebound data were available based on existing research (e.g., 27% for e-work). Second,using an average rebound effect considered appropriate by various research bodies (e.g., 10%). We haveconsidered the following rebound effects:
Potential rebound effect for E-Work: 27,4%133
Potential rebound effect for Smart Logistics: 20%134
Potential rebound effect for E-Health, E-commerce, E-Banking, E-Learning and Connected
Private Transportation: 7%135
Potential rebound effect for Smart Agriculture, Smart Manufacturing, Smart Energy, Smart
Building and Traffic Control & optimization: 10%136
Overall, the result is a possible rebound effect of 1.4 Gt CO2e in 2030 (see figure below).
Appendix - Figure 7: Rebound effect per use case

Smart energy, smart logistics and smart manufacturing represent almost half of the rebound effect
GHG abatement
potential

Rebound effectFinal GHG
abatement potential

Smart Manufacturing

2.71 Gt.

0.27 Gt.

2.44 Gt.

Smart Agriculture

2.02 Gt.

0.20 Gt.

1.82 Gt.

Smart Building

1.96 Gt.

0.20 Gt.

1.77 Gt.

Smart Energy

1.81 Gt.

0.18 Gt.

1.63 Gt.

Smart Logistics

1.26 Gt.

0.25Gt.

1.01 Gt.

Connected Transp.
3%
Traffic Control
6%

Traffic Control & Optm.

0.77 Gt.

0.08 Gt.

0.69 Gt.

Connected Private Trans.

0.57 Gt.

0.04 Gt.

0.53 Gt.

E-Work

0.40 Gt.

0.11 Gt.

0.29 Gt.

E-Commerce

0.31 Gt.

0.02 Gt.

0.28 Gt.

E-Health0.20 Gt.

0.01 Gt.

0.19 Gt.

E-Learning

0.07 Gt.

0.005 Gt.

0.07 Gt.

E-Banking0.003 Gt.

0.0002 Gt.

0.003 Gt.

TOTAL ABATEMENT

12.08 Gt.

1.37 Gt.

10.71 Gt.

Rebound effect distribution

E-Commerce E-Health1%2%E-Work8%

E-Learning
0%
E-Banking0%

Smart
Manufacturing
20%

Smart
Agriculture
15%
Smart
Logistics
18%

Smart
Energy13%

Smart
Building
14%

Source: Accenture GHG models, NTNU, Institute ofProspective Technologies, ACEEE, IER

133

http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:742058/FULLTEXT01.pdf

134“The future impact of ICTs on environmental sustainability”, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, in collaboration with the European
Commission
135“The future impact of ICTs on environmental sustainability”, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, in collaboration with the European
Commission
136“Rebound Effect, real but not very large”,ACEEE and “Energy efficiency mandates have rebound effect”, Institute for Energy Research

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –112However, the rebound effect was not deducted from the total ICT-enabled potential for two reasons: First,
the science behind rebound is generally tricky and a matter of debate. Second, neither SMART2020 nor
SMARTer2020 calculated expected rebound effect

Topic 1: Health

E-Healtho

Understanding: the main outcome from the E-Health Use Case is telepresence leading to a
reduction in travel, use of healthcare facilities and associated CO2e abatement.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for telepresence, current adoption
is 5%. In 2030, and in line with the information provided by this hype cycle, the adoption of
E-Health could reach 75%
For non-OECD countries, Gartner Hype Cycle for telepresence has been taken into account too, but the expected adoption was reduced (5% in 2015, 65% in 2030). This is due
to countries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included in this Use
Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement:• LEVER 1: Travel to healthcare facilities will be reduced, as doctors can remotely interact with patients. Less travel means less fuel consumption from transportation, resulting in fewer CO2e emissions•

LEVER 2: As fewer people will go to healthcare facilities, less infrastructure will be
required, reducing the number of healthcare facilities and the subsequent CO2e emissions of these facilities (mainly coming from specific electronic devices used for medical purposes, which are very energy intensive)

Abatement distribution
Lever

Total abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries))

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

37%This impact comes from multiplying two assumptions:
1Fall intransport use

US Government (likely to be representative of OECD
countries,http://www.healthit.gov/sites/de-

0.20 Gt CO2e

1.9%

fault/files/oncdatabrief16.pdf) , 94% of hospitals andhealthcare facilities have certified EHRs
2-

According to Accenture Analysis, 40% of attendances
correspond to outpatient attendances and simple queries, which are attendances that can be replaced by
telepresence.

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113

36%

This impact comes from multiplying two assumptions:
1-Less usage ofhealthcare facilities

98.1%

This calculation represents the reduction in number of
outpatient attendances from previous line (38%)

2-

Assumption: if 33% fewer outpatient attendances are
made, 95% of the required space for those is notneeded. However 5% of surface will be common forother usages.
Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 75%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 65%

Space released: As fewer people will go to healthcare facilities, less infrastructure will be
required, reducing the number of healthcare facilities, releasing these spaces for otherpurposes
Fuel saved: Transportation to healthcare facilities will be reduced, as doctors can attend topatients remotely, avoiding the need to travel. Less transportation means less fuel consumed by vehiclesoEconomic results
N/Ao

Social results
E-Health beneficiaries: E-Health beneficiaries are the number of people who will be using
ICTs to obtain any (partial or total) health assistanceoAdditional assumptions
Double counting avoided by removing the space saved from e-health facilities from the totalsquare meters we are looking at in Smart building

Topic 2: Learningo

E-Learning

Understanding
The main outcome from the E-Learning Use Case is the potential reduction in transport use,
as students/participants will attend classes online (from their houses or remote locations). Lesstransportation means less fuel consumption, which leads to less emissions.
Moreover, more people will have access to learning facilities due to E-Learning and learning
participants as well as governments will have cost savings from delivering learning at a lower
cost point. Additionally, paper will be saved due to use of E-Books.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating OECD countries
and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for education, current adoption is 5%.
In 2030, and in line with the information provided by this hype cycle, the adoption of ELearning could 65%

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For non-OECD countries, Gartner Hype Cycle for education has been taken into accounttoo, but reducing the expected adoption (5% in 2015, 35% in 2030). This is due to countries
being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included under this Use Case
(economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Fall in transport use in secondary education•

LEVER 2: Fall in transport use in higher education•

LEVER 3: Fall in transport use company training•

In all cases, it’s a fall in transportation needed, as students/participants will attend
classes online (from their houses or remote locations). Less transportation means lessfuel consumption by vehicle, which leads to fewer CO2e emissions

Abatement distribution
Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

30%
Fall in transport
use secondary
education

5.2%

According to team analysis, those students who adopt E-Learning
will travel 30% less, due to reducing the number of km traveled
for learning purposes, since students will attend lessons remotely. Attendance to learning centers for exams and possible
tutorials is taken into account30%

Fall in transport
use higher education

0.07 Gt CO2e34.8%

According to team analysis, those students who adopt E-Learning
will travel 30% less, due to reducing the number of km traveled
for learning purposes, since students will attend lessons remotely. Attendance to learning centers for exams and possible
tutorials is taken into account30%

Fall in transport
use company
training

60%

According to team analysis, those students who adopt E-Learning
will travel 30% less, due to reducing the number of km traveled
for learning purposes, since students will attend lessons remotely. Attendance to learning centers for exams and possible
tutorials is taken into accountExpected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 65%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 35%

Paper saved: The use of electronic devices and online materials will help reducing the usageof paperFuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in transportation needed, as students/participants
will attend classes online (from their houses or remote locations). Less transportationmeans less fuel consumed by vehiclesoEconomic results

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –115

Cost savings: E-Learning participants will require a lower expense per student (enrolment
and tuition fees are lower in online courses, as a result of being able to have more people
attending the same class. These cost savings are realized by learning participants and/or
government, but the share depends on the split of costs between private and public sectoroSocial results
E-Learning participants: E-Learning will allow increased access to school/university, among
others, to those who live in remote areas or far from the learning facilitiesoAdditional assumptions
N/A

Topic 3: EnergyoSmart Energy

Understanding
The main outcome from the Smart Energy Use Case is the potential reduction in energy production, due to energy management systems, the increase and integration of renewable energy
to the grid and the improvement of the efficiency of the grid, avoiding loss of the energy alreadyproduced. All of these, can lead to associated CO2e emission abatement.
Moreover, energy and grid infrastructure can be saved as a result of energy management systems.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries.
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for energy management systems,
current adoption is 5%. In 2030, and in line with the information provided by this hypecycle, the adoption of E-Health could reach 30%
For non-OECD countries, Gartner Hype Cycle for energy management system has beentaken into account too, but reducing the expected adoption (1% in 2015, 15% in 2030).
This is due to countries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included
under this Use Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Reduction in energy production as a result of ICT-enabled and more efficient demand management, reducing the amount of energy that is wasted (because it
won’t be used). Less energy produced leads to fewer CO2e emissions.
•

LEVER 2: Renewable energy production, as the energy produced with these technologies doesn’t have any direct related CO2e emissions•

LEVER 3: Reduction in transportation/distribution grid losses, which accounts for 6%of the energy transported. Energy will be more efficiently distributed between closer
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Abatement distribution
Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

20%

Decrease in energy production

42.4%

1.61 GT CO2e

According to team analysis, energy production can be reduced by
20%. This is possible due to ICT enabled capacities such as
smart metering which will allow better demand management, reducing the gap between supply and demand. Additionally, lessenergy will be required thanks to changes in personal behavior
and more efficient devices
5%

Decrease in energy lost

0.64%

According to team analysis energy lost can be reduced by 5%
due to new material that will provide superconductivity capacities
and energy storage, reducing the energy lost during the distribution among households and industries.

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 30%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 15%
Additional lever: Increase in renewable energy share: +1.77 Gt CO2e

Resulting from considering the growth of the share of renewable energies in the energy mix. As energy produced with from renewable sources
doesn’t produce any emissions, the subsequent emissions that would have been produced by traditional energy sources are abated.

This impact is considered as the decarbonization from improved integration of renewable energies in the grid as a result of using ICT. According
to IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), renewable energy share will achieve different % according to each country framework(i.e., 28% in AUS by 2030). Due to renewable energy production, emissions will be reduced in the same amount (24%)(http://www.irena.org/remap/REmap_Report_June_2014.pdf), taking into account where Smart Energy has been adopted.

Not all the abatement obtained by the inclusion of renewable energies in the energy mix is considered to be ICT related. Only where ICT isadopted, is where this integration to the energy mix is enhanced, and were this abatement is obtained

Energy saved: Less energy will be needed due to more efficient supply/demand management, reducing the existing gap between energy produced and energy demanded.
oEconomic results•oGrid saved: As energy will be produced, allocated and distributed to the closest cities/villages/provinces, the grid needed to transport this energy will be reduced

Social results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions•First lever, decrease in energy production (1.57 Gt CO2e), has been reclassified
among Smart Building and Smart Manufacturing, as mayor energy consuming sectors(75% and 25%, respectively)•

In the CO2e baseline (IPCC forecast for global emissions in 2030): SMARTer2030
avoids double counting of ICT’s abatement opportunity with IPCC’s BAU emissions
forecast by analyzing the type of levers considered for the IPCC BAU forecast. Our
analysis finds that IPCC has considered abatement from integrating solar and wind

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –117energy into the grid. SMARTer2030 has calculated the abatement from integrating
wind and solar energy into the grid to amount to 1.8 Gt CO2e in 2030. When we express the total ICT-enabled abatement potential for 2030 we include the 1.8 Gt CO2e
to comprehensively describe the full impact of ICT. However, when we express thecontribution ICT can make to reduce emissions from IPCC’s BAU forecast we only
consider those levers that come on top of IPCC has considered already. After removing the 1.8 Gt abatement from integrating solar and wind energy we find that ICT can
reduce IPCCs BAU forecast by 10.3 Gt CO2e in 2030. As a result, ICT can roughly
maintain CO2e at expected for 2030 at 2015 levels (IPCC expects an increase of 11.1
Gt and ICT can reduce this by 10.3 Gt)

Topic 4: FoodoSmart Agriculture

Understanding
The main outcome from the Smart Agriculture Use Case is a potential reduction in CO2e emissions coming from these areas: energy related reduction and a better usage of resources (fermentation and manure management) and other sources, such as, rice cultivation and fertilizers
use, leading to the subsequent CO2e abatement of associated emissions.
Moreover, the productivity of the farmer and crop yield will increase due to ICT-enabled precision farming techniques. Additionally, water, energy and associated costs will be saved due tothe use of smart sensors and data analytics.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to the team’s analysis, current adoption is 30%. In 2030, andin line with the research done, the adoption of Smart Agriculture could reach 75%
For non-OECD countries, team analysis resulted in a reduction of the expected adoption(10% in 2015, 45% in 2030). This is due to countries being less ready to implement all thenecessary advances included under this Use Case (economic limitations and/or social
readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Fall in energy use as a result of using sensors that enable the farmer tohave better control of machinery and the energy used in the farm•

LEVER 2: Resource efficiency in the usage of fertilizers, thanks to sensors that provide
the farmer, via GPS, with better knowledge of the conditions for farming activity, reducing the application of fertilizers when not needed•

LEVER 3: Resource efficiency in enteric fermentation as farmers will be able to monitor livestock food available and diet, adapting it to appropriate products and quantities
to meet animal's requirements while reducing emissions•

LEVER 4: Resource efficiency in manure management thanks to sensors that provide
via GPS to the farmer better knowledge of the conditions for farming activity, letting
the farmer dispose manure when not needed in an appropriate manner•

LEVER 5: Resource efficiency in rice cultivation as farmers will be able to control theconcentration of methanotrophs (prokaryotes that are able to metabolize methane as
their only source of carbon and energy) in the waterbed needed for rice cultivations,
thanks to information from sensors deployed.

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118

•

LEVER 6: Food waste, as Smart Agriculture will enable a better production management and enhanced transparency within the supply chain, reducing the food that islost and not consumed consequently reducing associated emissions.
Abatement distribution

Lever

Total
abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

65%
Energy efficiency

14.6%
According to team analysis, smart agriculture will provide a 65%
reduction in the energy used in agriculture
65%

6.3%

Fertilizers used

According to team analysis, smart agriculture will provide a 65%
reduction in the use of fertilizers due to better knowledge of soil
conditions that sensors will provide via GPS to the farmer, reducing unnecessary application of fertilizers.
65%

Enteric fermentation

35.7%

According to team analysis, smart agriculture will provide a 65%
reduction in the emissions from enteric fermentation, as farmers
will be able to monitor livestock food and diet, adapting it to appropriate products and quantities to meet animal's requirements
while reducing emissions.
50%

Manure management

10.1%

2.02 Gt CO2e

According to team analysis, smart agriculture will provide a 50%
reduction in the emissions from manure mgmt., due to betterknowledge of soil conditions that sensors will provide via GPS tothe farmer, allowing the farmer to avoid unnecessary applicationof manure.
40%

5.6%

Rice cultivation

According to team analysis, smart agriculture will provide a 40%
reduction in the emissions from rice cultivation, as farmers will beable to control the concentration of methanotrophs (prokaryotes
that are able to metabolize methane as their only source of carbon and energy) in the waterbed needed for rice cultivations,
thanks to information from sensors deployed.
20%

1/3 of all the food produced globally is wasted, and the impact of
ICT reducing this share has been taken into account.
27.7%

Food waste

The impact that Smart Agriculture will achieve in avoiding foodwaste is a reduction of 20%, due to better production management and connection and transparency within the supply chain.
The abatement potential is in line with this food waste reduction,
resulting in a 20% CO2e abatement potential where Smart Agriculture is adopted
Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 75%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 45%

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –119Energy saved137: Less energy will be needed due to sensors that enable the farmer to havebetter machinery management and reduce the energy used in the farm
Water saved: Decrease in water usage as a result of humidity soil sensors that, via GPS,provide the farmer with information on land water requirementsoEconomic results
Yield increase: Increased productivity of the land as a result of a better management of soil
conditions, knowledge of the requirements to help maximize production and the control ofpests and diseases
Cost savings: Decrease of water usage, thanks to humidity soil sensors that, via GPS, provide the farmer with information on land water requirements
Employee productivity: Increased farmer productivity (income) due to better managementof land activity and productionoSocial results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions
N/A

Topic 5: BuildingoSmart Building

Understanding
The main outcome from the Smart Building Use Case is the potential reduction in energy use
at building end-user level as a result of smart metering and intelligent energy management,
leading to associated CO2e emissions and cost savings from reduced energy consumption.
Moreover, ICT can help reduce water consumption from buildings and reduce waste water
generated.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for smart metering infrastructure, andsupported by Accenture SMEs interviewed, current adoption is 5%. In 2030, and in linewith the information provided by this hype cycle, the adoption of smart building could reach30%
For non-OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for smart metering infrastructure,and supported by Accenture SMEs interviewed, the expected adoption is reduced (2.5%in 2015, 20% in 2030). This is due to countries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included under this Use Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement

137

Energy saved considers savings in electricity and fuel, but as the majority of it is allocated under electricity, only MWh of energy savings are
considered

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•

LEVER 1: Reduction in the energy consumption from households•

LEVER 2: Reduction in the energy consumption from commercial buildings

Abatement distribution
Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

40%

Reduction in theenergy consumption fromhouseholds

52%

Existing research (Accenture Analysis Study on Smart Building,
http://www.accenture.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/PDF/Accenture-Smart-Building-Solutions-Brochure.pdf) estimates a
maximum reduction of 40% of CO2e emissions from households’ consumption and 45% from commercial building consumption as a result of better energy management, automaticdefault, building supervision & control and the implementationof operational guidelines

0.78 Gt CO2e45%

Reduction in theenergy consumption fromcommercial
building48%

Existing research (Accenture Analysis Study on Smart Building,
http://www.accenture.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/PDF/Accenture-Smart-Building-Solutions-Brochure.pdf) estimates a
maximum reduction of 40% of CO2e emissions from households’ consumption and 45% from commercial building consumption as a result of better energy management, automaticdefault, building supervision & control and the implementationof operational guidelines

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 30%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 20%

Waste water reduction: Waste water will be reduced in both, household and commercial
buildings, due to automatic default detection diagnosis and other monitoring systems
Water saved: Water consumption will be reduced too, due to similar systems previously mentioned (Automatic default systems etc.)
Energy saved: Reduction in the energy consumption from households, due to energy management, automatic default detection diagnosis, building supervision & control and the implementation of operational guidelinesoEconomic results
Cost savings: Buildings will experience a reduction in costs due to a decrease in the energy
consumption (7% of total costs)oSocial results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions
Part of the abatement from the Smart Energy Lever on energy production (supply-demand
management) will be reclassified under Smart Building, as this is a major energy consuming sector, allocating 75% of the abatement calculated (+1.18 Gt CO2e)

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– #SMARTer2030 – ICT Solutions for 21st Century Challenges –121Topic 6: Mobility & LogisticsoConnected Private Transportation

Understanding
The main outcome from the Connected Private Transportation Use Case comes from a reduction in kms traveled by each car, fuel consumption and cars circulating, as a result of ride sharing, car sharing and the technologies such as GPS smart driving systems etc., leading to abatement of associated CO2e emissions.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle Smart driving systems, current adoption is 5%. In 2030, and in line with the information provided by this hype cycle, the adoption of E-Health could reach 50%
For non-OECD countries, Gartner Hype Cycle for Smart driving systems has been taken into
account, reducing the expected adoption (5% in 2015, 40% in 2030). This is due to countries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included under this Use
Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Fall in transport use as a result of ride sharing. People use ride sharing
instead of driving separately with their own vehicle, reducing the total kilometers
driven, spending less fuel globally, and therefore reducing related emissions•

LEVER 2: Fall in transport use as a result of car sharing. People use car sharing instead of driving with their own private vehicles, reducing the total cars circulating,spending less fuel globally, and therefore reducing related emissions•

LEVER 3: Car production will be reduced, as the usage of cars will decrease significantly due to car sharing and ride sharing

Abatement distribution
Lever

Total
abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

30%

Ride sharing

0.77 Gt CO2e

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78.4%

People using ride sharing would reduce km traveled by 30%, according to team analysis. People use ride sharing instead of driving with their own car and as a result, total kilometers driven are
reduced and associated emissions are reduced too. This is possible due to ICT enabled capacities such as ride sharing platforms
and apps.

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3%

This impact comes from multiplying two assumptions:1-

Due to car sharing between people, the total number ofcars circulating will be reduced by 15%, according toteam analysis. People use car sharing instead of driving with their own private cars and as a result, total cars

0.6%

Car sharing

circulating and emissions are reduced. This is possible
thanks to ICT enabled capacities such as car sharing
platforms and apps.
2-

Due to people sharing cars, the number of km coveredby each car will be increased by 20%, according toteam analysis. This is a direct effect of the reduction incars circulating. If less cars are circulating, those carsthat are, will increase the amount of km traveled due tomore people using that single car.
15%

21%

Car production

Due to people sharing cars, the total number of cars produced will
be reduced by 15%, according to team analysis. If car sharing
users stop driving with their own private cars, won’t buy more vehicles, which will have a direct effect on car production and emissions from car production

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 50%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 40%

Fuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in fuel consumption, as people will be sharing carsand routes. More people sharing cars means less fuel consumed by cars
Cars circulating: People sharing will generate a decrease in the cars circulating on the roadsoEconomic results
Cost savings: If car and ride sharing users stop driving with their own private cars, they will
reduce the expenses on individual cars owned, leading to an increase in personal savingsoSocial results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions
Total Km set as baseline for the Traffic Control & Optimization and Connected Private Transportation Use Cases taking into account previous reductions from other Use Cases: EWork, E-Learning, E-Banking, E-Commerce and E-Health. Avoiding double counting
27% reduction of the total km travelled, which are not included in baseline calculations
Car production lever will be reallocated under Smart Manufacturing Use Case (0.20 Gt CO2e)

Topic 6: Mobility and LogisticsoTraffic Control & Optimization

Understanding

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The main outcome from the Traffic Control & Optimization Use Case is the potential reduction
in transport, due to efficient routes, more efficient driving and increased public transport attractiveness. All these impacts will lead to fewer CO2e emissions, less fuel consumed, lower costs
and time saved as there will be fewer traffic jams due to ICT.
oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
In 2015, according to a Gartner study, 5% of target population are currently active users of
traffic control and optimization platforms. For developing countries, it is estimated to be
20% of the adoption rate stated by Gartner (1%)
According to Gartner, a global adoption rate of 20% will be reached by 2020. Reaching amaximum of 45% in 2030 (used for OECD countries). For non-OECD countries, and due
to economic limitations, adoption rate will reach a maximum 10%oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Efficiency of transport due to efficient routes, as it will reduce the distancetravelled and fuel consumption, reducing the emissions due to GPS and Smart driving
technologies•

LEVER 2: Efficiency of transport due to efficient vehicles, as it will reduce fuel consumed by cars thanks to Smart driving technologies•

LEVER 3: Efficiency of transport due to public transport attractiveness. Improvements
in transparency in the public transport system will enable more people choosing thistransportation method, reducing the kms made by private cars

Abatement distribution
Lever

Total abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

7.5%

Impact obtained with the combination of two assumptions(25%*30%)

Efficiency oftransport
due to efficient routes

52%

People using efficient routes would reduce distance travelled by
25%, according to team analysis. This is possible due to ICT enabled capacities such as GPS, connected cars, fast parking platforms etc. which will reduce the distance travelled per trip

According to Virginia Transportation Research Council peopleusing efficient routes due to smart traffic control and optimization
would
reducefuelconsumption
by30%(http://nacto.org/docs/usdg/quantifying_benefits_of_coordinated_actuated_traffic_signal_systems_park.pdf). This will produce avoidance of traffic jams and the possibility of taking thefastest routes, generating a decrease on fuel consumption

0.76 Gt CO2e30%
Efficiency oftransport
due to efficient vehicles

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23%

According to ICBC people using efficient vehicles would reduce
fuel consumption by 30% (http://www.icbc.com/driver-licensing/Documents/drive_commercial_veh_4.pdf). Efficient vehicles
will have even lower consumption than other vehicles, reducing
the emissions produced by them

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25%
Efficiency oftransport
due to public transport
attractiveness25%

People using public transport would reduce km made by private
vehicles by 25% (an increase of people using public transport
would not lead to more transportation offered). An improvementin traffic control & optimization due to ICT enabled capacities
such as information LED screens, intelligent sensor etc. public
transport will be more transparent and more people will choosethat method of transport reducing the km made by private cars

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 45%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 10%

Fuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in fuel consumption, as transporters use efficientcars and routes. More people using efficient cars and routes means less fuel consumption
by carsoEconomic results
Cost savings: Efficiency in transport will allow a reduction in road expenditure due to Smart
traffic control systemsoSocial results
Time saved: Efficiency in transport will reduce traffic jams, reducing the time spend on theroadoAdditional assumptions
Total Km set as baseline for the Traffic Control & Optimization and Connected Private Transportation Use Cases take into account previous reductions from other Use Cases: E-Work,E-Learning, E-Banking, E-Commerce and E-Health, avoiding double counting
27% reduction of the total km travelled, which are not included in baseline calculations

Topic 6: Mobility and Logisticso

Smart Logistics

Understanding
Smart Logistics consists of optimizing the freight industry, resulting in fewer km of transportation and less fuel consumed, with a reduction in associated CO2e emissions. Additionally, costs,
space and wood savings will be obtained. As intermediate results, logistic companies will increase the average loading rate and reduce the number of empty runs.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, logistic companies have foreseen the benefits of becoming smart, leading to and actual adoption rate of 50%. With a BAU scenario, adoption rate of smart logistics will reach 85% by 2030
For non-OECD countries, this adoption rate is 10% less due to local difficulties for logisticcompanies to follow global smart trends (40% adoption rate in 2015, 75% adoption rate in
2030)

o

Environmental results
CO2e abatement

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•

LEVER 1: Fall in transport used as a result of a reduction in road freight due to route
optimization, maximization of vehicle capacity, logistic sharing and eco drive•

LEVER 2: Fall in transport used as a result of a reduction of air freight due to maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing•

LEVER 3: Fall in transport used as a result of a reduction of maritime freight due tomaximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing•

LEVER 4: Fall in transport used as a result of a reduction of train freight due to maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing

Abatement distribution
Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

30%

96%

Road freight

Smart Logistics will result in a maximum 30% reduction of roadfreight (ton-km), due to reducing the number of logistic trips andtherefore the total distance travelled, and the carbon intensity oftransportation, while the total shipping weight is maintained.
These capacities are enabled by route optimization, maximizationof vehicle capacity, logistic sharing and eco drive.
20%

1.5%

Air freight

1.26 Gt CO2e

Smart Logistics will result in a maximum 20% reduction of air
freight (ton-km), thanks to ICT enabled capacities such as the
maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing. These capacities will enable a reduction in the number of trips made andthe carbon intensity of transportation, therefore, the emissions related to them
20%

0.7%

Maritime freight

Smart Logistics will result in a maximum 20% reduction of maritime freight (ton-km) according to team analysis, thanks to ICT
enabled capacities such as the maximization of vehicle capacity
and logistic sharing. These capacities will enable a reduction in
the number of trips made, the carbon intensity of transportationand the associated emissions
25%

1.8%

Train freight

Smart Logistics will result in a maximum 25% reduction of train
freight (ton-km), thanks to ICT enabled capacities such as the
maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing. These capacities will enable a reduction in the number of trips made, thecarbon intensity of transportation and associated emissions

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 85%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 75%

Fuel saved: Fuel saved as a result of a reduction in transportation, due to route optimization,
maximization of vehicle capacity, logistic sharing and eco drive
Wood saved: Wood pallets saved due to logistic sharing and the reutilization of pallets between companies

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Space saved: A better managed logistic activity, where companies have control over thequantity and the time that goods are stored prior to reaching retailers / end of supply chain,
will produce space savingsoEconomic results
Cost savings: Due to the optimization of activities, logistic companies will be able to obtaincost savings from the implementation of Smart Logistics
Empty running: Empty runs decrease due to route optimization, maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharing
Loading rate: Loading rate reduction will be related to the reduction of empty runs, leveraging
on maximization of vehicle capacity and logistic sharingoSocial results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions
N/A

Topic 7: Work & Businesso

E-Commerce

Understanding
The main outcome from E-Commerce is a reduction of trips to shops, as people will be able toshop online in most of the common retailers. Transportation will be avoided, reducing the fuelconsumption and associated CO2e emissions. Additionally, time will be saved as people will
spend less time on the road.

oAdoption rate: multiple scenarios are considered
As 2015 adoption rate, and using Gartner as source study, 5% of target population are currently active users of e-commerce platforms
For 2030, two scenarios are considered: for OECD countries, according to Gartner maximum
adoption rate will be 90%. For non-OECD countries, adoption rate will reach a maximumof 50% due to difficulties in access to ICT

oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Transportation to shopping malls will be reduced, as buyers will purchaseonline, avoiding the necessity of travel. Less transportation means less fuel consumption by transportation means, which leads to fewer CO2e emissions
Abatement distribution

Lever

Total
abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

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50%

Fall in transport
used

100%
0.42-0.12=
0.3 Gt CO2e

Fall in transport will be in line with growth in the share of E-Commerce. E-commerce transactions will be increased by 50% by2030, according to team analysis, due to ICT enabled capacities
such as smart devices, digital wallets etc. Purchasers will substitute off-line shopping by e-commerce reducing the number oftrips to shops and emissions produced by traveling.
-27.6% of total abatement-27.6%Counter effect::A direct effect from additional logistics needed can be taken into
account, addressing an additional 27.6% CO2e emissions (fromthe abatement obtained)

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 90%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 50%

Fuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in transportation needed, as buyers will purchaseonline without the necessity of traveling, less transportation means less fuel consumed by
vehiclesoEconomic results
N/Ao

Social results
Time saved: As a result of ICT enabled capacities, people will be able to buy online, avoiding
the trip to the store and saving time on the roadoAdditional assumptions
N/A

Topic 7: Work & BusinessoE-Banking

Understanding
The main outcome from E-Banking is a reduction in transportation needed to do a bank transaction. ICT will generate CO2e abatement, from reduced transportation and office use, as well
as fuel usage reduction. Bank office renting cost and paper will be saved too, and the time
invested in bank operations will also be impacted by the Use Case.

oAdoption rate: multiple scenarios are considered
As 2015 adoption rate, data comes from The Telegraph, based on a study about this topic.
The % used may have been adapted adding a correction factor: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/bank-accounts/10604175/Do-banks-have-a-duty-tokeep-branches-open.html.
For 2030, two scenarios are considered: for OECD countries, the indicator comes from theDeutsche Bank research on Germany: 77%. For non-OECD countries, a correction factorof 17% has been added due to difficulties in access to ICTs: 60%oEnvironmental results

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CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Fall in transport used, as a result of on-line banking services, which will
reduce the number of trips to the bank•

LEVER 2: Fall in CO2e emissions per bank employee. As a result of reducing theamount of customer visits to the bank, the emissions per bank employee will decrease
Abatement distribution

Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

50%
Fall in transport
used

26%
According to team analysis, the use of online banking reduces 1
out of 2 visit to bank branches
60%

0.003 Gt CO2e
Fall in CO2eemissions perbank employee

74%

A reduction of a 50% in the number of trips to bank branches willcause a reduction of 50% in the number of employees atbranches. Additionally, a +10% is accounted for employees incharge of general bank services

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 77%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 60%

Fuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in transportation needed, as users will be attended
to without the necessity of travel (from their houses or remote locations) to the bank. Lesstransportation means less fuel consumed by vehicles
Paper saved: Decrease in paper needed due to the elimination of physical documents andincrease use of electronic onesoEconomic results
Cost savings: Fall in number of bank branches as a result of E-Banking, reducing the rentcostoSocial results
Time saved: Thanks to ICT enabled capacities, people will be able to be attended to wherever
they are, whatever they need, avoiding the trip to the bank and saving timeoAdditional assumptions
N/A

Topic 7: Work and businesso

E-WorkUnderstanding
The main outcome from E-Work is a reduction in transportation needed for business purposes.
Due to this, ICT will generate CO2e abatement and fuel usage reduction, as well as less officespace needed (savings in the associated rent costs too). Moreover, time will be saved as employees won’t need to go from their houses to the office.

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o

Adoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner Hype Cycle for digital workspaces, the current
adoption is 5%. In 2030, and in line with the information provided by this hype cycle, theadoption of E-Work could reach 80%
For non-OECD countries, Gartner Hype Cycle for digital workspaces has been taken into
account too, reducing the expected adoption (2% in 2015, 32% in 2030). This is due tocountries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included under thisUse Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Fall in transport used due to a reduction in commuting•

LEVER 2: Fall in business trips by car•

LEVER 3: Fall in business trips by plane

Abatement distribution
Total
abatement

Lever(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

53%

Fall in transport
used due to reduction of commuting

69%

0.40 Gt CO2e

E-Work reduces daily vehicle travel by 53%due to telecommuting,according to The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, in their report "Improving Quality of Life Through Telecommuting" (which references Brad Allenby and Joseph Roitz, “Implementing the Knowledge Economy: The Theory and Practice of
Telework,” Batten 19. Institute Working Paper, 2003 <www.telcoa.org/id146.htm>. See also Edward E. Potter, “Telecommuting:
The Future of Work, Corporate Culture, and American Society.”
Journal of Labor Research 24.1 (Winter 2003): 73-84)
80%

Fall in businesstrips by car

6%
In line with commuting impact, E-Work will reduce a maximum of
80% of the total business trips made, either by car or by plane
80%

Fall in businesstrips by plane25%
In line with commuting impact, E-Work will reduce a maximum of
80% of the total business trips made, either by car or by plane)
Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 80%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 32%

Fuel saved: This Use Case leads to a fall in transportation needed, as employees will workwithout the necessity of traveling (from their houses or remote locations). Less transportation means less fuel consumed by vehicles
Space saved: Decrease in required infrastructure due to people working from home, which
will reduce the office space needed

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o

Economic results
Cost savings: Decrease in required infrastructure due to people working from home, which
will reduce the office rent expenses
Employee productivity: Increase in worker productivity due to a better working atmosphereand living qualityoSocial results
Time saved: Thanks to ICT enabled capacities, people will be able to be work wherever they
are, avoiding the trip to the office and saving timeoAdditional assumptions
N/A

Topic 8: ManufacturingoSmart Manufacturing

Understanding
The main outcome from the Smart Manufacturing Use Case is the potential reduction in industrial operating costs, as a result of reducing the energy used during industrial processes, optimizing the resources use due to process automation, for both, heating and cooling, and engine
optimization. This reduction leads to an associated reduction in CO2e emissions and water use.

oAdoption rate: two adoption rate scenarios are considered, differentiating between OECD
countries and non-OECD countries
For OECD countries, according to Gartner study, 10% of manufacturing centers/ production
processes are currently intense users of technology (manufacturing centers/ production
processes are currently intense users of technology). In 2030, and in line with the information provided by Gartner, the adoption rate will reach 75% in developed countries
For non-OECD countries, the expected adoption is lower (5% in 2015, 65% in 2030). This isdue to countries being less ready to implement all the necessary advances included under
this Use Case (economic limitations and/or social readiness)oEnvironmental results
CO2e abatement• LEVER 1: Processes automation•

LEVER 2: Engine optimization

Abatement distribution
Lever

Total
abatement(% of total abatement,
may differ between
countries)

Maximum impact from 2030 technology

50%

Processes automation

2.12 Gt CO2e

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71%

Both heating, cooling and industrial and manufacturing processes
where Smart Manufacturing techniques are applied will save amaximum of 50% emissions (This is an assumption made by Accenture based on conversations with manufacturing processes
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40%

Engine optimization

29%

For motoring systems, engine systems where Smart Manufacturing techniques are applied will save a maximum of 40% emissions as they are less IT intensive than regular processes (Thisis an assumption made by Accenture based on conversations
with manufacturing processes experts)

Expected impact is only applicable to those that adopt this Use Case
Adoption rate by 2030 in OECD countries: 75%
Adoption rate by 2030 in non-OECD countries: 65%

Energy saved: Fall in energy used due to more efficient manufacturing techniques that saveenergy in the production process
Water saved: Fall in water usage due to more efficient manufacturing techniques that savewater in the production processoEconomic results
Cost savings: Increased productivity of manufacturing processes due to production efficiency, saving on operating costsoSocial results
N/Ao

Additional assumptions
Part of the abatement from the Smart Energy Lever on energy production (supply-demand
management) is reclassified under Smart Building, as this is a major energy consuming
sector, allocating 25% of the abatement calculated (+0.39 Gt CO2e)
The abatement obtained from the car production lever in Connected Private Transportation
Use Case will be reallocated to Smart manufacturing (+0.20 Gt CO2e)

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6.6

Glossary
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•
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•
•
•
•
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Abatement potential: potential reduction that may be obtained under specific future circumstances
Advanced Analytics: grouping of analytic techniques used to predict future outcomes based on
predictive analytics, simulation and optimization
AMP 2.0: Advanced Manufacturing Partnership Steering Committee
Augmented reality: technology that offers a real-time view of one´s immediate surroundings altered or enhanced by computer generated information
B2C: Business to Consumer
BAU: Business as usual
BAU+: optimistic BAU scenario
Broadband: high-speed data transmission
Carbon mitigation: actions to limit the magnitude and/or rate of long term climate change
Climate footprints: a measure of the full set of greenhouse gases of a defined population or activity
Cloud Computing: allows application software to be operated using internet-enabled devices
CO2e: unit used to express greenhouse gas emissions. It means carbon dioxide equivalent, whichhelps to express and aggregate emissions from different greenhouse gases
Connected car: car with connectivity to a network, that also includes smart driving solutions tomaximize efficiency and sustainability
Data Analytics: the science of examining raw data with the purpose of drawing conclusions aboutthat information
Digital density: number of people and objects that are connected through information technologies
Digital Wallet: electronic payment systems
Disruptive technologies: technologies with a significant impact on existing players and value
chains with the ability to fundamentally change the currently prevailing competitive dynamic
E-degree: online degree that can be earned through the use of an internet connected computer,rather than attending face-to-face classes
FJVPS: Fujitsu Virtual Product Simulator
FSDS: Federal Sustainable Development Strategy
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GHG: Greenhouse gas. Any of the gases whose absorption of solar radiation is responsible for thegreenhouse effect, including carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and the fluorocarbons
GIS: Geographic Information System
GPS: Global Positioning System
Gt CO2e: Gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalents
Ha: Hectare
HVAC: Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning
ICT: Information and Communication Technologies
Intermodal transport: the use of more than one mode of transport for a journey
IoT: The Internet of Things
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Km3: Cubic Kilometers
KWh: Kilo-watt-hour
L: Liters
M2: Square meters
M2M: Machine to Machine
MES: Manufacturing Execution System

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Micro grids: small-scale power grids that can operate independently or in conjunction with thearea’s main electrical grid
Mobile Money: electronic money that may be used to transfer funds between banks or accounts
with a smartphone
MOOC: Massive Open Online Course
MWh: Mega-watt-hour
NPV: Net Present Value
OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEM: Original equipment manufacturer
PLM: Product Lifecycle Management
Prosumers: consumers who are also producers (e.g. of electricity)
PV: Photovoltaic plants
Rebound effect: the reduction in expected gains from new technologies that increase the efficiencyof resource use, because of behavioral or other systemic responses
Resource depletion: consumption of a resource faster than it can be replenished
Resource intensity: a measure of the amount of resources required per unit of economic activity.
Resources are typically measured in tons of domestic material consumption comprising all types ofresources from fossil fuels to iron ore to biomaterials and economic activity is typically measured in
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
RoW: rest of world
Shopping concierge: virtual shopping assistant able to make recommendations
SMART: Self-Monitoring Analysis and Reporting Technology
Smart device: electronic device capable of connecting with other devices or networks. This reportfocuses on those containing mobile operating systems, known as smartphones
Smart meter: Internet-capable device that measures energy, water or natural gas consumption ofa building or home
Telecommuter: work arrangements in which employees do not physically communicate to a central
place of work
Telepresence: set of technologies which allow a person to feel as if they were present, to give theappearance of being present, or to have an effect, thanks to technologies, at a place other thantheir true location
tn: Metric ton
T&D: Transmission and Distribution
USF: Universal Services Funds
VMT: Vehicle Miles Traveled
Wastewater: water that has been used, e.g., for washing, flushing, or cleaning purposes, and contains waste products, and can’t therefore be reused directly without treatment
WRI: World Resources InstituteCopyright © GeSI 2015. All rights reserved.

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