IEEJ: April 2006

アジアのエネルギー安全保障問題の課題
Energy Security Challenges in Asia
第3回海外エネルギーセミナー

2006年4月7日 駐日英国大使館
小山 堅 Ken Koyama, PhD（財）日本エネルギー経済研究所
Institute of Energy Economics, Japan1

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Presentation Topic
1.
2.
3.

4.

Growing energy imports in Asia
Perspectives on energy security in Asia
Strategy to enhance energy security andregional cooperation in Asia
Conclusion2

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Energy Situation in Asia
Energy demand fueled by strong
economic growth As a region, Asia is a net energy importer Supply/demand balances differ by type ofenergy Widening energy supply/demand gap iscovered by growing oil imports
3

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Trend in Energy Supply/Demand in Asia
3,500
Production

3,000

Net import
1,692

1,500

1,260

884

2,000

2,177

Consumption

2,500

431

1,000
500

3,062

(Million TOE)

01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

4

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Supply/Demand Balances
by Type of Energy in Asia (2004)(Million TOE)
1,600

1,450
Production

1,4001,304

Consumption
1,200

Net import

1,045

1,000
800

688

600
400

357
256

306
147200500OilSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

GasCoal5Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Asia Depends Heavily on Middle EastOil Import
1,000(MTOE)
Others900

Asia Pacific800

Middle East

700
600
500
400
300
200
10001990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

2000

2002

2004

6

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Asia-Pacific LNG dominates in Asia, butMiddle East LNG increased120(BCF)

100

Others80

Asia PacificMiddle East60402001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
7Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Primary Energy Demand by Region in Asia
5000

Mtoe
AAGR(%)
1980-2000
2000-2020

2000

India Indonesia Taiwan
6.3% 6.8% 5.5%
3.8% 3.9% 2.4%

2000

2,423Mtoe

Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong

4000

3000

China Japan Korea
4.2% 2.1% 8.0%
4.1% 0.3% 2.3%

ChinaKorea
Indonesia
Singapore
PhilippinesVietnam
Other Asia

7.3%3.4%JapanIndia
TaiwanMalaysiaThailand
Hong Kong

7.7%
4.3%

4.6%
5.5%

8.1%
4.7%

6.3%
6.9%

5.4%
1.4%

2020
15%

13%

India
Korea
Japan7%12%

4,570Mtoe
A 1.9-foldincrease

8%
22%

1000

China

45%

38%
01980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source: IEEJ ”Asia/World Energy Outlook”, March 20048

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in Asia
2000

Mtoe
AAGR (%)

1500’80-‘00’00-‘20

TPES

4.2%

3.2%

Coal

4.1%

2.8%

Oil

3.3%

3.1%

Gas

7.9%

4.7%

Coal
Oil1000

Gas500

Other Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear01980

1990

2000

2010

Source: IEEJ ”Asia/World Energy Outlook”, March 20042020

9Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Oil Demand by Region in Asia
2000

Mtoe

1500

1000

Share in total incremental increase, 2000-2020

2000

China
Japan
Korea
India
Indonesia
Taiwan
47%
4.1%
21%
7.1%
1.8%
Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong
2.6%
4.6%
2.9%
4.2%
2.7%
-938 Mtoe

China
Korea
Indonesia
Singapore
PhilippinesVietnam
Other Asia

2020

JapanIndia
Taiwan
Malaysia
ThailandHong Kong

1,720 Mtoe
16%

12%
11%

500(189mb/d)

India

8%Korea

15%01980

1990

2000

A 1.8-foldincreaseJapan

28%24%(345mb/d)

China
2010

34%

2020

Source: IEEJ ”Asia/World Energy Outlook”, March 200410

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Oil Demand Outlook for Asia
2000

(MTOE)

1800

EIA

1600

IEA

1400

IEEJ

1752
1619

1720

1843

13941355
1246

1200
1000

963

800
600
400
2000
2002

2010

2020

2030

Source: IEA “World Energy Outlook 2005”, US.DOE/EIA “International EnergyOutlook 2005”, IEEJ ”Asia/World Energy Outlook”, March 200411

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

CO2 Emissions by Region in Asia
4000

Mt-C
Incremental Increase 2000-2020

3500

1200

918

1000

3000

800

487

600

2500
2000

024%

296

400
200

1.7 billion t-C

Other Asia

28JapanChinaIndia

1500

OtherAsia

21%16%

India

15%

China

50%

17%

Japan

9%

2000

2010

1000

47%
500
01980

1990

Source: IEEJ ”Asia/World Energy Outlook”, March 2004

2020

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Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Environmental Sustainability, An Emerging
Challenges in Asia
Energy & Environment, two sides a coin
 Energy demand growth put pressures onenvironmental sustainability in Asia
Rapid economic growth Urbanization
 Motorization
 Coal dominant energy structure Priority on economic development/growthEnvironment protection, increasingly becoming
an important policy agenda in Asian countries
13

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Energy Security, an emerging agenda
in Asia
Growing oil import dependence of the region
 Emerging large-scale importers (China, India, followedby Indonesia, etc.)
 Oil price increase after 1999
 Impact of September 11
 Instability in the Middle East Growing attention to “Geopolitical aspects” of energyActive strategy development to enhance energysecurity
14

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Perceived Risks for Energy Security
Contingent risks

Political and military risks in main energy supply areaAccidents in energy supply chainConsumers’ panic behaviorStructural risksSupplier’s embargo with political objectives
Market power of major suppliers
Supply/demand squeeze due to insufficient investment, rapid growthof demand, etc.
Resource constraints and chronic energy shortageSide effects of market liberalization and environmental restrictions



15

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Changes in the perception on the risks
In the 1970s, embargo and OPEC market
power tended to be regarded as the mostserious risks
 In the 1980s, concerns over the above
mentioned risks receded, because of thestructural changes in the world oil market
 In the 1990s, contingents risks tended to beregarded as major energy security risks
 Recent price increase and geopolitical events in
the Middle East, etc arouse public concern
again, and energy security concern revisited

16

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Energy Security Strategy Taken in Asia


Unilateral Approach
Energy Source Diversification(Promotion of Natural gas, Coal, Nuclear, etc.)
 Oil Import Source Diversification
 Overseas Upstream Investment
 Oil Stockpile Buildup
 Etc.
International Cooperation17

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Majors Players Embarking on Energy Policy& Strategy Development


Japan




China



Strategy discussed in the 11th 5 year planIndia


Discussion on National Energy Strategy

Active energy diplomacy/strategy
development

Etc.
18

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Implications of the Initiatives
In principle, pursuit of energy security by eachcountry can contribute to enhance regional andglobal energy security
 However, if initiatives to enhance energy security
conducted too exclusively, tensions could begenerated and escalated among Asian economies,
thus damaging regional energy security
 Therefore, Asia countries have a common interestin establishing regional energy security.
19

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

International Cooperation in Asia

Northeast Asia: Bilateral consultations between Japan-China,
Japan-Korea. Regional forum by industry and expert, businessdialogue/partnership become active in the region.
th ASEAN + 3 (Japan, Korea and China): During the 8 IEF inOsaka, energy ministers of ASEAN + 3 met to discuss agenda
for future cooperation. They agreed on such issues as: creationof emergency network; initiative of oil stockpile development;
joint study on the Asian oil market; etc. Energy ministers metin Manila on June 9, 2005 and agreed to further promote“ASEAN+3 Energy Partnership.” Producer/Consumer Dialogue: Ministerial roundtable meetings
were held in India (Delhi) to promote producer/consumer
dialogue in Asia in 2005 in pursuit of oil market stability20

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Importance of Regional Cooperation

Understanding that energy security is a common
challenge for Asia
 Cooperation can be beneficial:Synergies
 Optimal use of existing resources, capital, technology, knowhow, infrastructure, etc.
 Bargaining power From “national energy market” to “regional energy market”
Efficiency
 New business opportunity

Existence of various “constraints” should be overcome
21Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Importance of cooperation between
Asia and the producing countriesProducing countries need Asia because: Growing market for their mostimportant commodity
 Relative attractiveness compared to theUS/European market
 Crucial needs for stable and sufficientrevenue flows for their sustainable
development
22

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Asia, an increasingly important outlet for
Middle East oil exports
25,000（ 1,000B/D)

（％)

70.0

OtherEurope

20,000

US

65.0

Asia
Share of Asia

60.0

15,00055.0
10,000
50.0
5,000

45.0
40.001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 200523

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Most of Middle East LNG Heads for Asia
50(Billion Cubic Me te r)(%)
10045904080

O ECD Europe
O ECD N. Ame rica
Asia
Share

35307060

2550

2040

1530

1020

510001990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 200524

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Producing countries Need
Stable Energy Export Earnings
Energy revenue dependent economy Growing financial requirement for domesticeconomic development(Growing population, infrastructure buildup for higher
living standard, etc.)
Needs for re-investment in their energy sector(to maintain and expand energy exports)

Importance of economic diversification as along-term target
25

Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Common Interests for
Asia and the producing countries

Asia needs sufficient energy supply at
reasonable prices to meet their growing energy
requirement (Energy Supply Security)
 Producing countries need markets for theirenergy commodity to secure stable andsufficient revenue flows (Energy DemandSecurity)
 To achieve sustainable development, it isessential for the two region to have a better
understanding of the interdependency andpursue the common interests26Ken Koyama, IEEJ April 7, 2006

Conclusion
Rapid growth in energy demand in Asia put pressures on theinternational energy market and environmental sustainability
 Pressed by the growing energy demand and rising importdependence, Asian countries are now embarking on strategy
development to enhance energy supply security andsustainability
 Asia countries need Energy Supply Security, and Producing
countries need Energy Demand Security
 To achieve sustainable development, it is essential for the tworegion to have a better understanding of the interdependency
and pursue the common interests

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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