INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
No. 708, August 2022

Focus: Declining Population
Focus: and Emerging Countries’ Principles of Action（Summary）
Essay: What Shifts will Short-term Demographic Changes Prompt?
Hiroshi Kito（Professor Emeritus, Sophia University）
Global population trends in the 21st century are expected to be extremely complex. The total population continues to climb despite a diminishing rate of increase and should peak in 2086 before it
starts declining. However, population changes vary from region to region. While populations insome regions such as Africa will rise throughout the 21st century, populations in former Soviet
republics and Eastern European countries will continue to fall. Differences in population trends will
not only affect the sizes of populations but also their age structures through declining birthrates andpopulation aging, which will have different impacts on each society and lead to different forms ofinternational migration. These complex demographic changes are characteristic of a civilization intransition. It is necessary to envisage a new world system by succeeding in a smooth transition froman industrial society to a post-industrial society, sometimes labeled Society 5.0.

1 China: Examining Challenges to Sustainable Economic Growthfrom the Perspective of Demographic Dynamics:
Policy for Population Bulge is Concerned
Keiichiro Oizumi（Professor, Asia Research Institute, Asia University）
This paper reviews the current state of the Chinese economy from the perspective of demographic
trends and presents some of the challenges being faced.
China’s population is expected to begin declining soon while the aging of the population isexpected to accelerate, and there is growing interest in the economic and social impacts of thesetrends. However, China’s aging, described as “aging before becoming rich,” is the type of aging
seen in developing countries, and there are various deifficulties that differ from those in developed
countries. Among them, the population bulge formed by the one-child policy will reach 55-64 yearsof age in 2030, and whether this population bulge remains in the vital working-age population orbecomes supported elderly will have an impact on the medium- to long-term shape of the economy
and society. In other words, the long-term outlook may drastically change by the measures to betaken for this population bulge in the next 10 years.

2 The Population Powerhouse of India and Its Omnidirectional Diplomacy
Masanori Kondo（Senior Associate Professor, College of Liberal Arts, International ChristianUniversity）
With a population of 1.412 billion, India is the world’s second most populous country. According toUN estimates, India will become the world’s most populous country by 2023, with 1.668 billion
inhabitants by 2050, moving it far ahead of China’s expected 1.317 billion.
India is currently in the midst of a “demographic dividend period”. One in three people in India iscurrently between the ages of 10 and 24, and the demographic dividend period is expected to last
into the 2040s. However, the creation of jobs and the development of skilled workers are issues thatmust be addressed if India is to enjoy the benefits of this demographic dividend period.
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India’s population control measures rely indirectly on women’s education and health policies
instead of contraception, but there are significant regional and gender disparities.
Wealth inequality is also severe. The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a concentration of assets
in the hands of the super-wealthy and left an increasing number of people impoverished, but theModi government aims to reduce poverty through economic growth rather than increased subsidies.
The caste problem is still serious and is often politicized over preferential quotas accorded to lowcaste people.
Despite these challenges, India will continue to consolidate its position as a world power. In partdue to historical factors, it is unlikely that India will effect a change in its omnidirectional diplomacy. In the future, however, India will have a significant advantage as the world’s most populous
country, with a population far greater than that of China. Japan should further strengthen its relations
with India based on a full understanding of India’s neutral diplomacy.

3 Population Decline and Acceptance of Foreign Labor in Russia:
Immigration Policy from Russia’s Perspective
Kazuhiro Kumo（Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University）
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia took various measures to cope with a population
decline driven by a rapidly dropping birthrate and a rising death rate. In the medium to long term,measures such as dramatic increases in childcare allowances and maternity benefits were taken inorder to stabilize the population itself. Moreover, introduction of measures to encourage overseas
compatriots in former Soviet republics to return and introduce foreign labor on a large scale haseffects reaching beyond Russia’s borders.
However, this regime is not always consistent in that it alternately accepts and restricts foreigners,
and the dynamics of accepting labor immigrants fluctuate accordingly. It undoubtedly represents anundetermined approach to the challenge of assimilation versus segregation that must be faced bycountries considering accepting immigration. This paper presents an outline of the legal system anddescribes changes in the scale of actual labor immigration over time.

4 Brazil’s Declining Birthrate/Aging Population and Domestic Political Stability:
A Growing Elderly Population and an Increasingly Interested Youth Population
Ahead of the Presidential Election
Ryohei Konta（Director, Latin America Research Group, Institute of Developing Economies）
Japan is the most advanced country in the world in terms of birthrate decline and population aging,trends that have also become evident in Brazil in recent years. Although Japan and Brazil have different political systems, a low birthrate and an aging population in general can change the number ofvoters and affect how the politics is conducted. Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled forOctober of this year. In the last presidential election in 2018, the public’s political polarization wasmarked by a conflict between “fear” of former military officer Bolsonaro, considered to be on thefar right, and “antipathy” toward the leftist Workers’ Party, ousted from power due to economic
stagnation and corruption. In this article, I focus on the political trends and movements among
young people in Brazil, looking first at Brazil’s declining birthrate and aging population and then at
the domestic political destabilization brought about by the inauguration of the Bolsonaro administration. I then point out that, while young people’s interest in politics is increasing in the run-up to the2022 presidential election, their influence is decreasing, and consider the future of Brazil inclusiveof the presidential election.

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Summary

Independent Articles:
1 A Study on Population Decline and Economic Growth:
The Case of Japan
Kazumasa, Oguro（Professor, Hosei University）
This paper briefly analyzes the relationship between population decline and economic growth. First,
the total factor productivity（TFP）growth rate, which has a large impact on the potential growthrate, may be affected by the size of the population. This is called the scale effect. In an analysis
using time-series panel fixed-effects analyses of data from 1985 to 2003 for five developed countries in which only the trend factors of TFP growth were extracted, the coefficient for the size of thepopulation reached a significance level of 1%. This estimate suggests that TFP growth may decline
by 0.82% if Japan’s population of about 120 million is halved to 60 million in 100 years, as per theNational Institute of Population and Social Security Research’s “Future Population Estimates”（moderate-range projections）. On the other hand, if the average working hours in Japan were toremain the same as in 1990 and the real GDP per capita of countries in 1990 were indexed at 1, astandardized display would put Japan’s real GDP per capita in 2019 at 1.58, higher than both theUnited States’ 1.55 and the United Kingdom’s 1.52. As the ratio for France stands at 1.36, Germany
at 1.47, and Sweden and the Netherlands at 1.49 respectively, Japan may actually have the highest
ratio among these countries.

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