発刊に当たって一般財団法人建設経済研究所は、1982年の設立以来、我が国の国土づくり、社会資本整備の最新動向、建設産業の現状や課題などを調査分析し、その結果を「建設経済レポート」として取りまとめています。
今号の建設経済レポートNo.74では、以下の内容を取り上げています。
「第１章 建設投資と社会資本整備」では、国内建設投資の最近の動向や直近の見通しをとりまとめ、新しい建設経済モデルを構築するとともに、2通りに設定した経済成長のシナリオの下で、供給側・需要側の両面から国内建設投資の2030年代年央までの中長期予測を提示しました。また、北海道の社会資本整備動向を調査するとともに、東日本大震災復旧復興について、福島県に焦点を当て、復興の現状と定住人口の回復、産業の再生等中長期的な観点からの課題を整理しました。さらに、コロナ禍における人々の意識や行動変容を分析し、今後の我が国の国土構造や地域づくりの方向性を考察しました。そして社会資本整備に係る費用便益分析について、社会経済の変化を踏まえた計測手法のあり方について提言を行いました。
「第２章 建設産業の現状と課題」では、第一に、新型コロナウイルス感染拡大が建設業に与えた影響の実態の把握と、課題を整理し、分析しました。次いで、地方の建設業における技能労働者の現状と課題を整理し、人材確保・育成の取組を考察しました。また、世界的に加速する脱炭素社会の実現に向けて、建設業界や住宅・不動産業界の取組や先導的な事例を調査し、課題の整理と今後の方策を検討しました。そして建設企業の経営財務分析では、コロナ禍における業況を踏まえた決算状況、資金調達動向などについて分析を行っています。
「第３章 公共調達制度」では、公共工事の手続におけるデジタル化の現状や発注者と受注者双方に有用と考えられる業務合理化・負担軽減の方策を検討しました。
「第４章 建設企業の海外展開」では、今後我が国建設企業の海外事業において有望な市場になることが見込まれるスマートシティについて、海外展開の可能性と課題を検討しました。
建設経済レポートNo.74が、インフラ整備、建設投資、建設産業に携わる皆様をはじめ、経済、国土づくりの全般に広くご関心をお持ちの方々の諸活動にささやかながら貢献することができることになれば幸いです。
2022年3月一般財団法人 建設経済研究所
理事長

小澤

敬 市

建設経済レポート No.74©RICE

目

目
第１章

建設投資と社会資本整備

次

次······················································ 1

1.1

国内建設投資の動向············································································ 1

1.1.1

これまでの建設投資の推移 ································································ 1

1.1.2

国内建設投資の見通し ······································································ 21.1.3

出来高展開手法の見直しと新たな「建設経済モデル」の構築 ···················· 41.1.4

地域別の建設投資動向 ····································································· 111.2

建設投資の中長期予測～供給側・需要側から見た 2035 年までの予測～ ········ 221.2.1

予測結果の概要 ·············································································· 22

1.2.2

先行研究と本稿の位置づけ ······························································· 25

1.2.3

全体想定 ······················································································· 25

1.2.4

予測 ····························································································· 26

1.2.5

結論 ····························································································· 50

1.2.6

今後の課題 ···················································································· 51

1.3

北海道の社会資本整備動向 ·································································· 52

1.3.1

北海道の現状及び課題 ····································································· 52

1.3.2

主要プロジェクト等の動向 ······························································· 53

1.3.3

北海道における地域建設業の現状と課題 ············································· 64

1.3.4

北海道における建設投資の将来展望 ··················································· 78

1.4

福島県における東日本大震災復旧復興の現状と今後のあり方 ····················· 81

1.4.1

被害の概要と避難指示区域の設定 ······················································ 81

1.4.2

復旧復興に向けた取組と建設業が果たした役割····································· 84

1.4.3

人口及び経済指標の推移 ·································································· 95

1.4.4

住民の帰還・移住・定住と産業復興に向けた取組 ································ 101

1.4.5

会津若松市におけるスマートシティの推進········································· 108

1.4.6

大規模災害への備えと中長期的な復興のあり方··································· 112

建設経済レポート No.74©RICE

目 次

1.5

コロナ禍が国土構造にもたらす影響 ···················································· 115

1.5.1

コロナ禍を踏まえた人々の意識・動向等の変化 ·································· 116

1.5.2

具体的な先進事例 ········································································· 139

1.6

社会資本整備の経済効果 ·································································· 147

1.6.1

社会的割引率のあるべき水準について ·············································· 147

1.6.2

社会的割引率の見直しと感度分析 ···················································· 160

1.6.3

費用便益手法の改善 ······································································ 161

1.6.4

事業費増加リスクへの対応 ····························································· 172

1.6.5

合理的な費用対効果分析の実施に向けた提言 ····································· 174

第２章

建設産業の現状と課題······················································ 177

2.1

新型コロナウイルス感染拡大が建設業に与えた影響 ······························· 177

2.1.1

新型コロナウイルスのまん延状況と主な対応 ····································· 177

2.1.2

調査研究概要 ··············································································· 180

2.1.3

経営への影響 ··············································································· 182

2.1.4

雇用への影響 ··············································································· 188

2.1.5

現場、事務所における影響 ····························································· 189

2.1.6

働き方の変化・生産性向上の取組 ···················································· 202

2.1.7

提言··························································································· 207

2.2

地方の建設業の人材確保に向けた取組 ················································· 211

2.2.1

建設業の人手不足の現状と対応状況 ················································· 211

2.2.2

地方の建設業の現状と都道府県の対応状況 ········································ 216

2.2.3

建設業者へのアンケートとヒアリング ·············································· 224

2.2.4

地方の建設業の人材確保・定着の方向性 ··········································· 240

2.3

社会資本分野において建設業等が取り組むべき脱炭素社会実現のための方策 246

2.3.1

カーボンニュートラルの概要 ·························································· 246

2.3.2

建設業界等のカーボンニュートラル実現に向けた現状と課題 ················· 254

2.3.3

建設業界等におけるカーボンニュートラル実現への手法······················· 259

2.3.4

建設業界等におけるカーボンニュートラル実現への取組事例 ················· 263

2.3.5

建設業界等の今後の方向性 ····························································· 273

建設経済レポート No.74©RICE

目次

2.4

建設産業の経営財務分析··································································· 277

2.4.1

主要建設会社 40 社の決算分析 ························································ 277

2.4.2

建設業の資金動向分析 ··································································· 287

第３章

公共調達制度······································································ 296

3.1

公共工事の手続におけるデジタル化の取組状況と課題 ···························· 296

3.1.1

公共工事の手続におけるデジタル化の概要········································· 296

3.1.2

建設業者アンケート及び発注者取材の実施概要··································· 297

3.1.3

建設業許可・経営事項審査の申請のデジタル化··································· 299

3.1.4

公共工事の入札参加資格審査申請のデジタル化··································· 302

3.1.5

公共工事の入札のデジタル化 ·························································· 309

3.1.6

公共工事の契約のデジタル化 ·························································· 318

3.1.7

公共工事の手続のデジタル化に関する方策の提言 ································ 324

第４章建設企業の海外展開···························································· 327

4.1

インフラ輸出戦略としてのスマートシティの海外展開の可能性と課題········ 327

4.1.1

日本建設企業を取り巻く海外受注環境 ·············································· 327

4.1.2

日本国内におけるスマートシティへの企業参画の現状と課題 ················· 329

4.1.3

海外スマートシティにおける日本企業の参画経緯や課題 ······················· 342

4.1.4

海外スマートシティへの参画に向けた対策········································· 351

継続掲載図表目次

図表 1-1-1

名目建設投資の見通し ···························································································· 3

図表 1-1-2

建設投資額の見通し ······························································································· 3（注）一部に内容が簡略化されたレポートも含むため、詳細版は当研究所ウェブサイトにてご確認下さい。

建設経済レポート No.74©RICE