地震予知検討委員会

ᆅ⌫㟁☢ẼᏛⓗほ ࡟ࡼࡿᆅ㟈ண▱◊✲ᆅ㟈ண▱࡟㛵㐃ࡍࡿ㟁☢ẼᏛⓗ࡞◊✲ࡢṔྐࡣྂࡃ㸪᭱ࡶྂ࠸ᩥ⊩ࡣ㸪ᆅ㟈Ꮫ఍ࡢ๰タ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮࡛࠶ࡗࡓ࣑ࣝࣥ࡟ࡼࡿሗ࿌࡜ᛮࢃࢀࡿ㸬0LOQH  ࡛ࡣ㸪ࠕᮾி࡛኱Ẽ୰ࡢ㟁Ⲵኚືࢆ㐃⥆ほࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ᆅ㟈࡟కࡗࡓኚ໬ࡀఱᗘࡶほࡉࢀࡓࠖ࡜ࡢሗ࿌ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡑࢀ௨㝆㸪ᆅẆࡢᛂຊኚ໬࡟క࠺ᆅ☢Ẽኚ໬࡜࠸ࡗࡓ⪃࠼ࡸ㸪ࡸࡣࡾᛂຊ㞟୰࡟ࡼࡾᆅୗ࡛ὶయࡀὶࢀ㸪ᆅ㟁఩ᕪ␗ᖖࢆ⏕ࡎࡿ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ㟁☢ẼᏛⓗ࡞ᵓ㐀ኚ໬㸦ẚ᢬ᢠᵓ㐀ኚ໬㸧࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᆅ⾲௜㏆࡛ࡶᆅ㟁ὶࡢὶࢀࡿ⤒㊰ࡀኚࢃࡗ࡚㸪ࡳ࠿ࡅୖᆅ㟁ὶ␗ᖖ࡜ࡋ࡚ほ ࡉࢀࡿ࡜࠸ࡗࡓᵓ㐀ኚ໬ࢆྛ✀㟁☢ẼᏛⓗ࡞␗ᖖࡢཎᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ  ᖺࡢ㛵ᮾᆅ㟈ࡢ๓࡟  ᖺ㛵ᮾᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ࡢ⣙  ᖺ๓࠿ࡽᰠᒸᆅ☢Ẽほ ᡤ࡛㸪ᆅ☢Ẽ㖄┤ᡂศ࡜Ỉᖹᡂศࡢẚ㸦Ǽ㹘㸭Ǽ㹆㸧ࡀ  ௨ୖࡶኚ໬ࡋ࡚࠸
ࡓ࡜ࡢሗ࿌ࡶ࠶ࡿ㸦<DQDJLKDUD㸧㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᆅ⌫㟁☢Ẽⓗ࡞ඛ⾜␗ᖖࡢሗ࿌࠿ࡽࣈ࣮ࣝࣉࣜࣥࢺ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶᆅ⌫㟁☢Ẽⓗほ ࡀྵࡲࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
0LOQH-  (DUWKTXDNHVLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKHOHFWULFDQGPDJQHWLFSKHQRPHQD7UDQV
6HLVPRO6RF-DSDQ
<DQDJLKDUD.  6HFXODUYDULDWLRQRIWKHHOHFWULFDOFRQGXFWLYLW\DQRPDO\LQWKH
FHQWUDOSDUWRI-DSDQ0HPR.DNLRND0DJ2EV
ᆅ㟁఩ᕪほ  ᖺ࡟ࣈ࣮ࣝࣉࣜࣥࢺࡀබ⾲ࡉࢀ㸪ᆅ㟈ண▱ィ⏬ࡢ୍⎔࡜ࡋ࡚᫛࿴  ᖺ࠿ࡽ  ᖺࡲ࡛ᒣᓮ᩿ᒙࢸࢫࢺࣇ࢕࣮ࣝࢻ⥲ྜほ ࡀ  ᖺ㛫ᐇ᪋ࡉࢀ㸪 ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥࡟ほ Ⅼࡢ࡯ࡰ┤ୗ࡛Ⓨ⏕
ࡋࡓ 0  ࡢᆅ㟈ࡢ㝿࡟᫂░࡞␗ᖖࡀほ ࡉࢀࡓ㸬࡞࠾ࡇࡢ᫬௦ࡲ࡛ࡢ㟁☢Ẽ⌧㇟ࡢࡲ࡜ࡵ࡜ࡋ
࡚ࡣ 5LNLWDNH  ࡟ヲࡋ࠸㸬ࡑࡢᚋ㸪ᆅ㟁఩ᕪほࡢᏳᐃ໬ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡟࡞ࡾ㸪ࡇࡢၟ⏝㟁ヰᅇ⥺ࢆ㟁⥺࡜ࡋ࡚฼⏝ࡍࡿ஦࡛ᆅୗࡢ኱つᶍ࡞㟁Ẽఏᑟᗘᵓ㐀ࡢㄪᰝἲࡀࢿࢵࢺ࣮࣡ࢡ 07࡜࿧ࡤࢀࡿண▱◊✲ࡀᥦ᱌ࡉࢀࡓ 8\HVKLPD 㸬୍᪉㸪ᆅ㟈࡟ඛ⾜ࡍࡿ㐣Ώⓗ࡞ᆅ㟁఩ᕪኚື࡜ࡋ࡚ࢠࣜࢩࣕࡢ 9$1 ἲࡢሗ࿌ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬9$1 ἲࡣ㸪ᆅ㟁఩ᕪኚືᐃ࡟ࡼࡿᆅ㟈ண▱ᡭἲ࡛㸪ᐇ⏝ண▱࡜ࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡑࡢ㧗࠸ண▱ᡂຌ⋡ࡀሗ࿌ࡉࢀࡓ 9DURWVRVHWDO 㸬ᐇ⏝ண▱ᡭἲ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪᪥ࠎⓎᒎࡍࡿุᐃᇶ‽࡟ࡼࡿண▱ࡢᡂྰ࡛㸪ᆅ㟈࡜ඛ⾜⌧㇟ࡢ┦㛵ᛶࡀ㆟ㄽࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪ᆅ㟈ඛ⾜ᆅ㟁఩ᕪኚືࡢᐇᅾ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㆟ㄽࡀᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡗࡓ *HOOHU 㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪᪥ᮏࡢ⚄ὠᓥ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ᆅ㟁఩ᕪኚື࡜ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ࡢ⤫ィⓗ┦㛵ࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ 2ULKDUDHWDO 㸪㐣Ώⓗ࡞ᆅ㟈ඛ⾜ᆅ㟁఩ᕪኚືඛ⾜⌧㇟ࡣᏑᅾࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
5LNLWDNH7  0DJQHWLFDQGHOHFWULFVLJQDOVSUHFXUVRU\WRHDUWKTXDNHV$QDQDO\VLV
RI-DSDQHVHGDWD-*HRPDJ*HRHOHFWU
8\HVKLPD0  (0PRQLWRULQJRIFUXVWDOSURFHVVHVLQFOXGLQJWKHXVHRIWKH1HWZRUN07REVHUYDWLRQV6XUY*HRSK\V19DURWVRV3$196DUOLV(66NRUGDV  1DWXUDO7LPH$QDO\VLV7KH1HZ9LHZ
RI7LPH3UHFXUVRU\6HLVPLF(OHFWULF6LJQDOV(DUWKTXDNHVDQGRWKHU&RPSOH[7LPH6HULHV
6SULQJHU%HUOLQSS
*HOOHU5 HG   'HEDWHRQHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH9$10HWKRG 6SHFLDOLVVXH *HRSK\V5HV/HWW2ULKDUD<0.DPRJDZD71DJDRDQG68\HGD  3UHVHLVPLFDQRPDORXVWHOOXULFFXUUHQW VLJQDOV REVHUYHG LQ .R]XVKLPD ,VODQG -DSDQ 3URF 1DW $FDG 6FL ᆅ☢Ẽኚື࡟ࡼࡿほ ྂࡃ࠿ࡽ▱ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ⏺㠃ື㟁⌧㇟࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᆅ㟈࡟ඛ⾜ࡍࡿ☢ሙኚືࡣほ ࡀヨࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ㸬㢧ⴭ࡞஦౛ࡣ㸪 ᖺࡢ࣐࣭ࣟࣉ࢚ࣜࢱᆅ㟈 0 ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪㉸ప࿘Ἴᆅ☢Ẽኚືࡀ㟈ኸ࠿ࡽ NP
ࡢ┤㏆࡛ほ ࡉࢀࡓ )UDVHU6PLWKHWDO 㸬ኚືࡣᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ࡢ  㐌㛫๓࠿ࡽⓎ⏕ࡋ㸪ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ࡢᩘ᫬㛫๓࡟ࡉࡽ࡟኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪ᆅ㟈ᚋࡣḟ➨࡟ኚືࡀῶᑡࡋࡓ㸬ሗ࿌ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿᆅ㟈ඛ⾜ᆅ⌫㟁☢Ẽⓗኚືࡢከࡃࡣ㸪ᆅ㟈࡟ඛ⾜ࡍࡿ࡜ࡉࢀࡓ㐣Ώⓗ࡞⌧㇟࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ᆅ㟈࡜⤫ィⓗ┦㛵ࡀ♧ࡋ࡟ࡃ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ࡇࡢሗ࿌࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕᫬࡟ྥ࠿ࡗ࡚༢ㄪቑຍⓗ࡟ኚ໬ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪㟈※᰾ࡢᴫᛕ࡜୍⮴ࡋࡸࡍࡃ㸪᳨▱ࡀ㟈ኸ┤㏆࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽඛ⾜⌧㇟࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢಙ㢗ᛶࡀ㧗࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬௨ᚋ㸪ከࡃࡢᆅ㟈ඛ⾜ᆅ☢Ẽኚືࡢሗ࿌ࡀ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪࣐࣭ࣟࣉ࢚ࣜࢱᆅ㟈ࡢࡼ࠺࡞஦౛ࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩)UDVHU6PLWK$&$%HUQDUGL350F*LOO0(/DGG5$+HOOLZHOODQG2*9LOODUG
-U  /RZIUHTXHQF\PDJQHWLFILHOGPHDVXUHPHQWVQHDUWKHHSLFHQWHURIWKH0V
/RPD3ULHWDHDUWKTXDNH*HRSK\V5HV/HWW㟁☢Ἴ࡟ࡼࡿほ ᆅ㟈࡟ඛ⾜ࡍࡿ㟁☢Ἴࡢඛ㥑ⓗ◊✲ࡣ  ᖺ௦ࡢࣟࢩ࢔ࡢ *RKNEHUJ ࡜㟁Ẽ㏻ಙ኱Ꮫࡢⰾ㔝㉱ኵࡽࡢඹྠ◊✲࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᙼࡽࡣ㸪/) ᖏࡢ㞧㡢ࣞ࣋ࣝࡀ  ᖺ  ᭶  ᪥࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓ 0 ࢡࣛࢫࡢ῝Ⓨᆅ㟈ࡢⓎ⏕  ศ๓࠿ࡽୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ඖࡢࣞ࣋ࣝ࡟᚟ᖐࡋࡓ࡜ሗ࿌ࡋࡓ
*RKNEHUJHWDO 㸬௨ᚋ㸪9/)/) ᖏࡢࡼ࠺࡞㛗㊥㞳ఏᦙࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࿘Ἴᩘᖏ࡛ྠᵝ࡞ほࡣከࡃヨࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡀ㸪ከࡃࡀᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕๓ࡢ㐣Ώⓗ࡞ኚ໬࡛࠶ࡾⴠ㞾㉳ᅉࡢᘚูࡢၥ㢟ࡶ࠶ࡾ┦㛵ࡀ᫂░࡛࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ᮾᾏ኱Ꮫࡢὸ⏣㸪㤿ሙࡽࡢࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪9/) ᖏ㟁Ἴࡢ฿᮶᪉ྥ᳨▱࡛㸪ⴠ㞾㉳ᅉ࡜ࡣ␗࡞ࡿ㟈ኸ᪉ྥࡢ㟁☢Ἴࡢ᳨▱࡜㸪 Ⅼࡢほ ࡛ࡶᩚྜⓗ࡞⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀ㸪ᆅ㟈ඛ⾜㟁☢ἼࡢᏑᅾࡣ㧗࠸࡜ࡳࡽࢀࡓ $DVDGDHWDO 㸬⌧ᅾࡢ࡜ࡇࢁ㸪࿘Ἴᩘࡢప࠸ 9/) ᖏ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶᑟ㟁ᛶࡢ㧗࠸ᆅ୰ࢆ㏱㐣ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡶ࠶ࡗ࡚㸪ࡇࢀࡽࡢ㟁☢ἼࡢⓎ⏕ࡢ௙⤌ࡳࡣᮍゎ࡛᫂࠶ࡿ㸬ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩2

*RNKEHUJ0%9$0RUJRXQRY7<RVKLQRDQG,7RPL]DZD([SHULPHQWDOPHDVXUHPHQWRI
HOHFWURPDJQHWLFHPLVVLRQVSRVVLEO\UHODWHGWRHDUWKTXDNHVLQ-DSDQ  -*HRSK\V
5HV%
$VDGD7㸪+%DED㸪..DZD]RHDQG06XJLXUD  $QDWWHPSWWRGHOLQHDWHYHU\ORZIUHTXHQF\HOHFWURPDJQHWLFVLJQDOVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHDUWKTXDNHV㸪(DUWK3ODQHWV6SDFH኱Ẽᅪ࠾ࡼࡧ㟁㞳ᅪࡢኚືᆅ㟈࡟ඛ⾜ࡍࡿᆅ⌫㟁☢Ẽⓗኚືࡣ㸪ᆅୖほ࡟࠾ࡅࡿㅖ⌧㇟ࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ㸪኱Ẽᅪ࣭㟁㞳ᅪኚືࡶ  ᖺ௦ᚋ༙࠿ࡽሗ࿌ࡉࢀጞࡵࡓ㸬㟁㞳ᅪኚື࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ  ᖺ௦ᚋ༙ࡈࢁ࠿ࡽᣦ᦬ࡉࢀጞࡵ㸪ࣟࢩ࢔ࡢ *RKNEHUJHWDO  ࢆࡣࡌࡵᩘከࡃࡢほ ሗ࿌ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬኱Ẽᅪ࣭㟁㞳ᅪኚືࡣ㸪ᆅୖほ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ ᐃ࡟㟁☢Ἴࢆ฼⏝࡛ࡁ㸪୍⯡ⓗ࡟ᗈᇦ࡟ࣔࢽࢱ࣮ࡀ࡛ࡁ㸪⾨ᫍ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪▷᫬㛫࡛඲⌫᥈ᰝࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪஦౛ᩘ⋓ᚓࡀᐜ᫆࡜࡞ࡾ⤫ィⓗ◊✲ࡀከࡃ࡞ࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ᑐὶᅪᨐ஘ )XMLZDUDHWDO 㸪㟁㞳ᅪ ' 㡿ᇦኪ㛫㟁㞳ᅪኚື +D\DNDZDHWDO 㸪㟁㞳ᅪ ) 㡿ᇦ᪥୰㟁Ꮚᐦᗘῶᑡ /LXHWDO 㸪' 㡿ᇦኚືࡀ㉳※࡜ࡳࡽࢀࡿኪ㛫 9/) ᖏ㟁☢Ἴᙉᗘῶᑡ 1ÝPHFHWDO ࡞࡝ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪㏣ヨ࡛ࡣྠᵝ࡞⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠸㸪⤫ィୖࡢၥ㢟ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸪☢Ẽᔒࡢᙳ㡪ࡀྲྀࡾ㝖ࡅ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸࠿࡜࠸ࡗࡓᣦ᦬ࡶ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡽࡢኚືࡢⓎ⏕㉳※ࡀᆅ㟈‽ഛ㐣⛬࡟࠶ࡿ࡞ࡽࡤ㸪ᆅୖ᳨࡛▱࡛ࡁࡿ࡜ᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪ୖ㏙ࡢ␲ၥࢆゎᾘࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡞ほ ⤖ᯝࡣᚓࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸㸬ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
*RNKEHUJ0%,/*XIHOG$$5R]KQR\9)0DUHQNR96<DPSROVN\DQG($3RQRPDUHY6WXG\RIVHLVPLFLQIOXHQFHRQWKHLRQRVSKHUHE\VXSHUORQJZDYHSURELQJRIWKH(DUWKLRQRVSKHUHZDYHJXLGH  3K\V(DUWK3ODQHW,QWHU)XMLZDUD+0.DPRJDZD0,NHGD-</LX+6DNDWD<,&KHQ+2IXUXWRQ6
0XUDPDWVX<-&KXRDQG<+2KWVXNL  $WPRVSKHULFDQRPDOLHVREVHUYHGGXULQJHDUWKTXDNHRFFXUUHQFHV*HRSK\V5HV/HWW/
+D\DNDZD0<.DVDKDUD71DNDPXUD)0XWR7+RULH60DHNDZD<+REDUD$$
5R]KQRL06RORYLHYDDQG2$0ROFKDQRY  $VWDWLVWLFDOVWXG\RQWKHFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQORZHULRQRVSKHULFSHUWXUEDWLRQVDVVHHQE\VXELRQRVSKHULF9/)/)SURSDJDWLRQDQG
HDUWKTXDNHV-*HRSK\V5HV$/LX-<<,&KHQ<-&KXR  $VWDWLVWLFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQRISUHHDUWKTXDNHLRQRVSKHULFDQRPDO\-*HRSK\V5HV$1ÝPHF)26DQWRO¯N03DUURWDQG--%HUWKHOLHU  6SDFHFUDIWREVHUYDWLRQVRIHOHFWURPDJQHWLFSHUWXUEDWLRQVFRQQHFWHGZLWKVHLVPLFDFWLYLW\*HRSK\V5HV/HWW/3