Potential of Premature Death Mitigation
through Efficiency Improvements in Coal Power Plants in China
Tomoaki Nakaishi
Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Email: tomoaki.nakaishi@gmail.com

1. Introduction
Serious Air Pollution in China: Since the 1970s, China has experienced serious air pollution. The average concentration of PM2.5 across
China was 54 μg/㎥ (in 2013), which is more than five times higher than the WHO standard (i.e., less than 10 μg/㎥). In 2015, PM2.5
caused more than one million premature deaths in China and shortened the national average life expectancy by 25 months (IEA, 2016).
Contribution of Coal Power Plants in China to air pollution: The contribution of coal power plants to total PM2.5emissions in China is ~6% (Zhao et al., 2013). However, coal power plants are often located in densely populated
urban areas, threatening the health of neighbors (IEA, 2016). According to GBD (2016), the number ofpremature deaths due to PM2.5 emissions from coal power plants will increase to up to 110,000 by 2030.

2. Research Objective
Previous Studies and Our Motivation: The key to mitigate the number of premature deaths is to estimate the current number ofpremature deaths. For example, HEI (2016; 2019) estimated the "number" of premature deaths due to PM2.5 emissions from coal power
plants in China. However, the existing studies failed to identify how much "potential" each area has for mitigating premature deaths. To
overcome this challenge, our study proposes a novel integrated research framework that combines data envelopment analysis (DEA)with chemical transport simulations and health impact assessments to estimate the premature death mitigation “potentials”.
Research Question: Which areas have the potential to mitigate premature deaths due to PM2.5 from coal power plants in China?

3. Material and Method
Data Construction: We collected input-output data (Capital, Coal consumed, Electricity
produced, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) with geographical information for 316 coal power plants inChina (40% coverage) from China Electricity Council (2014) and Tong et al. (2018).
Environmental Efficiency Evaluation by DEA : We applied the DEA to the constructed inputoutput data to estimate the environmental efficiency for 316 power plants. The DEA is amathematical programming method for estimating the relative production efficiency scores,
which are standardized between 0 (lowest) and 1 (highest), of multiple decision-making
units (i.e., power plants) based on their input-output data.

Input-output data (with GIS info.) for 316 coal
power plants in China
Efficiency analysis by DEA to estimate
emissions reduction potentials"Baseline" scenario
emissions inventory“Mitigated" scenario
emissions inventory

Chemical transport simulations
for annual average PM2.5 concentrations

Emissions Reduction Potentials Estimation by DEA: Comparing the most efficienttechnology (i.e., score: 1) with other inefficient technologies (i.e., score: 0-1), the emissions
Health impacts assessments
reduction potential for SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions through efficiency improvements forfor annual premature death due to PM2.5
each power plant can also be estimated. The current emissions from original data aredefined as the "baseline" scenario, while the emissions of each air pollutant after the fullComparison of the number of premature
deaths in both scenarios
efficiency improvement of all inefficient power plants are defined as a "mitigated" scenario.
Premature Death Mitigation Potential Estimation: We employed chemical transport
Premature death mitigation potentials
models and health impact assessment models to the air pollutant emission data in the twoFig. 1. Research flows
scenarios to estimate the premature deaths by 45㎢ grid in both scenarios. Finally, themitigation potential of premature deaths by the grid is estimated by differentiating the premature deaths in the two scenarios.

4. Result and Discussion
Environmental efficiency

Environmental Efficiency: There were 15 (out of 316) power plants with the highest environmentalefficiency (i.e., score: 1). The average environmental efficiency of all plants was 0.8. The production
activities of power plants in the economically developed coastal areas had high environmental
efficiency, while those in the northeast and southwest areas had low environmental efficiency.

Emission Reduction potential of air pollutants: The cumulative emission reduction potentials wereSO2: 1685kt (56%), NOx: 688kt (21%), and primary PM2.5: 132kt (48%). There were large emission
reduction potentials in the southwest region for SO2, and in the northeast and middle Yellow River
Fig. 2. Environmental efficiency for 316 plants
areas for NOx and PM2.5. There was little emission reduction potential in the coastal power plants.
Premature Death Mitigation Potentials: Annual average PM2.5 concentrations werehighest around the southwestern provinces of Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou.
Transboundary pollution to Japan, South Korea, and other neighboring countries
was also observed. The current number of premature deaths due to PM2.5
emissions from 316 coal power plants in China was ~37,000 ("baseline" scenario),and the number of premature deaths after full efficiency improvements was~22,600 ("mitigated" scenario). In other words, the mitigation potential forpremature deaths due to PM2.5 emissions from 316 coal power plants in China was~14,400 (39%). The 45㎢ grid with the highest premature death mitigation
potential was Chengdu with 127 people (49%), and the two adjacent grids also hadhigh premature death mitigation potential. Given this, priority must be given toimproving the efficiency of power plants that affect the southwestern region.
Fig. 3. Mitigation potentials of premature death due to PM2.5 emissions