Reduction of flood risk by optimizing reservoir
operation using real time flood forecast

Guna Paudyal
Senior Flood Risk Management Expert

Presentation Objectives:
To share findings
g from a studyy in Maharashtra,,India: Reservoir inflow forecasting andoptimized operation to reduce downstream flood

Flood disasters in
Maharashtra,
India

Maharshtra
Krishna-Bhimabasins floods
2005-2006

Krishna Basin
Flood losses in one year (2006), Million Rupees
Crops &Infrastructure
Farmers

State

Land/Structure
Damages

Satara

329.3

2.3

63.7

152.9

0.5

548.7

Sangli

744.4

3.5

148.2

98.60.4

995.1

Kolhapur2080.5

26.8

125.7

152.0

1.3

2386.3District

District

Human Losses

Horticulture
Crops

Govt.
Nursery

Total

Cattle Losses

2005

2006

2005

2006

Satara

1123

156

239

Sangli

13

19

224

23

Kolhapur

26

26

236

80

In the Krishna Basin46 majorj and medium reservoirs
Operated with rigid operational rulecurves: keep the reservoirs fulltowards the end of rainy season.
seasonBut when heavy rain occurs incatchments, then the reservoirs areoperated releasing sudden floods
downstream with disastrous effects.

High Level Government commission:
Floods of 2005 and 2006 were devastating, strong needs of specificforecasts and early warning were felt.
felt Reservoir operations shouldconsider downstream flooding more explicitly.

Reservoirs of Maharashtra
The reservoirs in Maharashtra are multipurpose - hydropower,
irrigation domestic and industrial water supply
irrigation,supply.
Thoughg these reservoirs are not specificallypypprovided withflood cushion, they can moderate flood peaks to considerable
extent by proper reservoir operations.
Reservoirs are operated with rigid rules as single entities
based on the historical hydro-meteorological data andexperience
igained.
i d
These methods are often not adequate for establishing
optimal operational decisions, especially where integrated
operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management iscontemplated.
contemplated

A Real time monitoring and forecasting system wasdeveloped in 2012-13. about 300 telemetry stations wereiinstalled.
ll dFlood Bulletin

SMS & E-mailalerts

Real Time Data Acquisition System(RTDAS)

Forecasting of inflows and floods

OperationalpForecastsince 2013

The Case of Ujjani Reservoir and flooding ofPandarpur cityOptimized Operation of the reservoir based on
3-day inflow forecast

Ujjani reservoir operation during Moonsoon 2006

Optimized reservoir operation during flood emergencies
Crops &Infrastructure
Farmers

State

Land/StStructure
tDamages

Satara

329.3

2.3

63.7

152.9

0.5

548.7

Sangli

744.4

3.5

148.2

98.6

0.4

995.1

Kolhapur2080.5

26.8

125.7

152.0

1.3

2386.3District

Horticulture
Crops

Govt.
Nursery

R 2386 milRs.
il / yr.

Floodl d losses
lini one year (2006)
District

Human Losses

20052006
These llossesTh
could have beenavoidedT t l
Total

Cattle Losses
2005

2006

Satara

11

23

156

239

SSanglili

13

19224

23

Kolhapur

2626

236

80

Costt off settingC
tti up RTDAS (telemetry(t lt 300 stations)t ti ) = Rs.
R 230 milil
Cost of forecasting system incl., software, datatbase, capacity bldg.,(completed in 18 months + 2 years support = Rs. 82 million
TOTAl= Rs.312 million

Reservoir Operation must consider
downstream floods

Joy for some, trouble for many !

Vadodharaa city flooding in 2014.

Chennai Floods Dec. 2015

Extreme weather events
rise in frequency
qyReal time flood warning- Gives you time to act
Flood modelMMS
SMS Message
Message

WeatherForecast

Real time rain
infoinfo.

25 km of road to yyy
High Flood
will be flooded by 1
Risk in city
m. next 12 hours.
areaXXX,checkh k website
b it