Collaboration Priorities to Improve Space
Weather Services

Terry Onsager
Physicist – U.S. National Weather Service, Space Weather Prediction Center
Director – International Space Environment Service
Terry.Onsager@noaa.gov

Main Topics• Operational service focus• Research and data needed• Available observations and model output• Additional collaboration possibilities

Growth in Subscribers to Space WeatherProducts
Customer Growth
SWPC Product Subscription Service

Sunspot Number~25% of customers areInternational

Subscription
service began

Number of Subscribers

Customers Include:
All major airlines
Drilling and oil exploration
Satellite companies
Transportation sector
Emergency respondersMajor Forecast Center Products

Daily Forecasts (1-3 day):- Solar flares- Solar energetic particles- Geomagnetic activity- 10.7 cm radio flux

Event-Driven Warnings and Alerts:- Warnings: geomagnetic storms,
proton events- Alerts: solar flare, proton event,geomagnetic storm, electron event,solar radio burst

Numerical Models:- Enlil – background solar wind and CMEs
- Relativistic Electron Forecast Model- D-Region Absorption Product- U.S. Total Electron Content- Ovation Aurora Model

Components of NOAA’s Numerical Space
Weather Modeling Effort

Solar /Solar Wind

Magnetosphere/Ionosphere

L1 Satellite Location – ACE and now DSCOVR

Atmosphere/IonosphereResearch and Modeling Priorities• Improved accuracy of 1-4 day forecasts of geomagnetic storms• Localized specifications and forecasts of the impacts of geomagneticstorms at ground level• Forecasts of ionospheric conditions relevant to GNSS users• Specifications and forecasts of the radiation environment for satellites
and commercial aircraft• Improved probability of solar active-region eruption, including flare xrays and energetic particles

High-Priority Needs for Real-Time DataIn Approximate Priority Order• Back-up of space-based solar and solar wind measurements- Receiving antennas for real-time data (e.g., DSCOVR, STEREO, etc.)- Coronagraph, solar E/M emissions, solar wind plasma and mag field• Off Sun-Earth-line coronagraph (e.g., L5)• Ionospheric measurements (ground-based and space-based)- Global TEC, scintillation, FUV images, electron density profile• Magnetospheric in-situ measurements- Energetic electrons and protons, low energetic electrons, mag field• Earth-surface magnetic field- Global ground magnetometer data

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR)
Solar Wind Mission•

Launched February, 2015•

Space weather is the primary mission; climate issecondary•

Faraday cup: solar wind density, speed, temperature•

Electron electrostatic analyzer•

Magnetometer•

International network of real-time receiving antennas:
Germany, Japan, South Korea, U.S.

•Real-time data processed and provided by NOAA

Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites (GOES)
GOES-R is planned to launch in 2016

• Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance
Sensors (EXIS): X-ray sensor, expandeddynamic range and flare location• Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) – Full-disk
extreme ultraviolet imager: Active region
characterization, filament eruption, and flaredetection• Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS):
Electrons, protons, heavy ions – Surface
charging, internal charging, single-event
upsets• Magnetometer: Detection of geomagnetic
storms and magnetopause crossing, energetic
particle products, model validation

GOES-R
Requirements workshop for
future geostationary
measurements planned forApril 13, 2015, before Space
Weather Workshop

Evolution of GOES Charged Particle andMagnetometer Coverage
Satellite
SeriesElectrons>800 keV

GOES 8-12√

GOES 13-15√√GOES R√√Interior
charging,
humanradiation

Surface andinteriorcharging

Radiationeffects
application

Electrons
30-600keVElectrons
0.03-30
keV

Protons>740 keV

Protons
80-800keV

Protons
0.03-30
keV

√

Solar
Heavy
Ions, >10
MeV/n

Magnetometer

He√

He

√

√

√

√

√

√

√

He, Z=4-29(Be-Cu)√

Surfacecharging
andcharging
signatures

Single event
effects, HF
comm.,
humanradiation

Surfacedamage(e.g., solararrays)

Surfacecharging
signatures

Single eventeffects

Charging,
calculationof n and T,
orientation
anomalies• Daily Forecasts (1-3 day):- Solar x-rays and energetic protons- Geomagnetic activity- 10.7 cm radio flux

• Event-Driven Warnings and Alerts:- Warnings: geomagnetic storms, proton events- Alerts: solar flares, proton events, geomagneticstorms, electron events, solar radio bursts• Also: Continuous real-time data and input for numerical models

Determining the Initial Properties of CMEs is
Important for Predicting Their Arrival
WSA-Enlil Model of Background Solar WindSOHO LASCO Coronagraph

Ecliptic Plane
STEREO-ASunEarthNASA STEREO Coronagraph

STEREO-B

D. Odstrcil

Regional Predictions of Geomagnetic
Disturbances• Current forecasts do not resolve regional differences in activity• Evaluation of geomagnetic activity models is occurring – involving
NOAA, CCMC, MHD modelers, and empirical modelers• Transition to operations could begin in 2013
Kp - Global Measure ofGeomagnetic Activity

G. Millward

Coupling of Atmospheric Dynamic to theIonosphere System
Model development includes collaboration with UK researchers and the UK Met Office
Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)
Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)

Ionosphere PlasmasphereElectrodynamics (IPE) Model
Plasmasphere

WAM: Neutral
Atmosphere0 – 600 km

GFS
0 – 60 km

Ionosphere

Thermosphere
WAM

Stratosphere
Troposphere

R. Viereck, NOAA/SWPC

MesosphereAdditional Information Sharing withService Partners• Alert notifications• Customer requirements• Customer impacts• National contingency plans• Verification methods and results• Research/product development progressSpace Weather Services to Build GlobalResilience
Expert Meeting on Space Weather Services
February 3, 2015 – UNCOPUOS STSC Assembly
Goal: Foster greater global participation in space weather service activities• How can members benefit from information and services available
today?
• What types of services are likely to be needed in various regions?
• How can members expand from a research/education capability to aservice capability?
• How can members contribute local data and expertise to the global
effort?
Supporting the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS)
Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STSC) Agenda Item on Space Weather