My Vision No.62
2022.10

Implementing Responses to Uncertainty
in Our Societies
Natural disasters, pandemics, IT system failures; our modern societies face a wide variety of unpredictable
events. In this issue of My Vision, we explore how these unpredictable events can be made predictable.

About This Issue

The Ability to Respond to Uncertainty Determines the “Quality” of a Society– The Key is Real-time, Two-way Communication Between the State and Individuals
Yasufumi Kanemaru
Chairperson, NIRA/ Chairman and President, Group CEO, Future Corporation

Events such as natural disasters, pandemics, and large-scale failures due to system anomalies are
said to be “unpredictable events,” which could have a serious impact on the survival of businesses andsociety as a whole. Is it genuinely impossible to anticipate these unpredictable events? What methods
could we use to prepare for them? What should be done on a regular basis to make such methods more
effective? Attempts are being made to overcome uncertainty that cross the boundaries of traditional
disciplines. In this issue of My Vision, experts in the field discuss their efforts to respond to uncertainty.
Keywords…Ability to cope with uncertainty, enhancement of digital infrastructure, tight coupling / loose couplingExpert Opinions
Implementing Responses to Uncertainty in Our Societies
How should we prepare for unpredictable future contingencies?
What should we do now in order to make our future responses more effective?

Detecting Fluctuations and Responding toContingencies in Advance

Improving the Ability of Organizations to
Learn and Anticipate Based on Data from
“Normal” Operations

Kazuyuki Aihara

Masaharu Kitamura

Distinguished Professor / Professor Emeritus, The
University of Tokyo

Emeritus Professor, Tohoku University / Director,
TeMS Co., Ltd.

Keywords…Mathematical engineering, complex
systems, detection of pre-disease states

Keywords…Resilience engineering, Safety I & II, good
examples identified under normal operations

Recognize the Importance of Networking
Technology

Make the Transition to Software Development
That Incorporates Uncertainty, Rather Than
Aiming for Perfection

Toshimitsu Ushio

Juichi Takahashi

Professor, Department of Systems Science, Graduate
School of Engineering Science, Osaka University

Director and CTSO, AGEST Inc., and Director,
AGEST Testing Lab.

Keywords…Network system failure, butterfly effect,
hierarchy of information

Keywords…Software bloat, IT “evacuation drills,”
modularization (“microservices”)

What Can and Do We Want to Know Under
Uncertainty?
Miriam Teschl
Associate Professor, Ecole des hautes études ensciences sociales (EHESS)
Keywords…Decentralized mechanisms, accelerationindex, dispersion of knowledge

Interview period：September - October, 2022
Interviewer : Atsushi Inoue（Research Coordinator &Research Fellow, NIRA)

Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
About This Issue

The Ability to Respond to Uncertainty Determines the“Quality” of a Society–The Key is Real-time, Two-way Communication Between the State and Individuals
A series of shocking events, including the COVID-19
pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, have forced people torecognize that we now live in an “age of uncertainty.”“Uncertainty” is a convenient word, and one which is often used
as an excuse for failing to foresee disasters. However,determining how to face uncertainty and turn it into somethingforeseeable are matters that human intelligence is quite capableof responding to. The results of this process will be manifested as
Yasufumi Kanemaru
the difference in the strength of nations and organizations in the
Chairperson, NIRA/ Chairman andfuture. From this perspective, Japan's current situation is not
President, Group CEO, Future
encouraging. Despite the experience of the Great East Japan
Corporation
Earthquake, Japan's response to possible future earthquakes isfar from adequate, and even several years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan has
still been unable to rebuild its medical system. In this issue of My Vision, we learn about potential
responses to uncertainty from five experts in the field.

Mathematical Methods for Predicting and Responding to Crises, and the Creation of
a Digital Infrastructure
Kazuyuki Aihara, Distinguished Professor and Emeritus Professor at The University ofTokyo, is attempting to understand uncertainty through mathematical methods. Research that seeks
to predict the onset of disease has conventionally focused on specific markers representing
physiological states. However, Professor Aihara's theoretical work quantitatively detects dynamicchanges, or “fluctuations,” among multiple markers. In the field of Chinese medicine, the term “predisease” refers to a state in which a person has not yet developed a disease but still has some type ofdisorder. Professor Aihara has detected this pre-disease state in mice, and has also confirmed theeffect of Chinese medicine in preventing the onset of disease. How can we put such unique theories towork in order to benefit us? To do so, it will be necessary to understand that today's societies are madeup of both real physical spaces and digital networks. Digital networks are no longer defined by theexchange of information between specific terminals. Each of us is like a cell, constantly exchanging
messages with each other, making up a dynamic social network as a whole. We need to develop a
digital infrastructure that enables real-time two-way communication between the state, organizations,and individuals, making it possible for us to accurately grasp the state of society “now.” This will be
the fundamental premise for confronting uncertainty.
What, then, is the ideal form of organization able to respond to unpredictable events?
Masaharu Kitamura, Emeritus Professor at Tohoku University and Director of TeMS Co., Ltd., points
out that simply standardizing the behavior of the employees of specific organizations is not sufficient
to allow us to deal with unexpected crises. Signs of crisis are hidden in everyday life, and by analyzing
data collected during normal operations, signs can be identified and crises can be anticipated. He tells
us that this cycle should be repeated in order to improve the learning capacity of the entire
organization. The support of cloud computing and other digital technologies is essential for thisEditor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
purpose. It would be effective to create a database of past cases of crises, including causes and thecountermeasures adopted, enabling this data to be retrieved as necessary. It will also be essential toput mechanisms in place that allow problems to be prevented to the greatest extent possible. For
example, a certain Japanese delivery company, which engages in 100 million transactions per day,conducts “automatic monitoring 24 hours a day, 365 days a year” to ensure that not even a single
mistake is overlooked. In the unlikely event of a problem occurring, rather than shutting down theentire system, the company has created a mechanism that allows it to isolate and save the relevant
data and process other data normally while minimizing damage, analyzing the problem and resolving
it as soon as possible.
Toshimitsu Ushio, a professor at Osaka University, explains that even under normal
conditions, it is important to determine the nature of each piece of information collected, how it will
be used, and what impact it may have. Visualizing the sequence of what mission-critical data areprocessed, what calculation procedures are performed, and where the data are stored is very
important in designing a more robust system. If multiple systems are tightly coupled, making it
impossible to separate them from each other, a problem with any one of them will bring the entire
system to a halt. In the case of loosely coupled systems, however, even if one system fails, the rest willcontinue to operate and recovery will be a simple matter.
Based on this way of thinking, a method of assembling software by “modules” (also known as“microservices”) that are organized by function has recently come into practice, and these modules arebeing widely used. Juichi Takahashi, Director and CTSO of AGEST, Inc., points out that thedevelopment of modules, the very foundation of reliability, requires that each member of the teamresponsible be extremely competent. If even one member of the team is not sufficiently competent, therate of occurrence of bugs will increase, which will lead directly to lower productivity. Foreign IT
companies spend much more time on recruitment than Japanese companies, and they provide
excellent personnel with considerable benefits in order not to lose them.

The Government Must Make a Strategic Decision to Achieve Decentralized
Mechanisms
Miriam Teschl, an Associate Professor at France’s Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales(EHESS), is conducting research regarding how governments should respond during a crisis. She has
shown that decentralized mechanisms are more effective than top-down decision-making in the caseof testing and other procedures that seek to combat the spread of infectious diseases. This does notmean a choice between decentralization or centralized authority, but rather that the government must
make strategic decisions on what it should and should not do as the central authority, and then leave
what should be handled individually to individual actors. Naturally, it will be essential to discuss inadvance, under normal conditions, what measures will be necessary in an emergency, and to put thenecessary laws and regulations in place.
In order for Japan to enhance its ability to respond to crises in the future, a selection of experts
from various fields must be brought together for a detailed exchange of opinions, via online and realworld meetings, to identify the risks that the nation faces. In addition, with the current growinginterest in ESG (environment, society, and governance), this is an opportune time for companies andvarious industries to address uncertainty. If management recognizes that the ability to respond tocrises will help companies grow and evolve, we can expect to see a rapid increase in theimplementation of the type of measures described above in our societies. The ability of nations andcompanies to deal with uncertainty will define the very quality of the society in which we live.
Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
Expert Opinions

Detecting Fluctuations and Responding toContingencies in AdvanceOur field of research is mathematical engineering, in which we use
mathematics to obtain solutions to real-world problems. One of the mainareas we study is “complex systems.” Here, it is not sufficient to simply
understand numerous interacting elements and the overall behavior that
results from their interaction. It is necessary to focus on the mutualinteraction of network structures and hierarchical feedback from the wholeto the elements. In relation to many of the remaining critical issues of thiscentury, such as the functioning of the brain, the spread of infectious
diseases, energy, information, transportation, and the economy, we are
Kazuyuki Aihara
attempting to use the theory of complex systems in order to detect signs ofDistinguished Professor /problematic events before they occur.
Professor Emeritus,
The University of Tokyo
In the case of medicine, our strategy is to detect “pre-disease states”
before they manifest as a disease, and to treat them before they develop
further. Immediately prior to the transition from a healthy state to a diseased state, we can observe uniquesigns that are not seen in a normal healthy state. This is a state in which “fluctuations” (dynamic changes)
in biomarkers, or biometric signals, are occurring. We defined this state as a “pre-disease state,” anddeveloped the theory of “Dynamical Network Biomarkers (DNB),” a mathematical theory thatquantitatively detects changes in the magnitude of fluctuations of multiple markers and the correlations
between them.
This has made it possible to detect pre-disease states, which has been difficult to do by simply
looking at the static biomarkers, i.e., average values, which have traditionally been most widely used in
the diagnosis of disease. In a joint research project conducted with the University of Toyama, the researchteam discovered that fluctuations in the network of a specific gene group increased in a metabolic syndrome
mouse model several weeks before the onset of disease, and furthermore, when the feed of this mouse model
was mixed with Chinese medicine intended for treatment, an effect of suppression of the onset of disease
through the reduction of fluctuations during the pre-disease state was confirmed.
In this era of Big Data , sensors and IoT technology have advanced to a point making it possible
to obtain the large data sets necessary for mathematical analysis. The method of analysis that we propose
is simple enough to be used by even novice data scientists. The theory and the analytic methods for
detecting early warning signals have already been established. In addition to the detection of pre-diseasestates, we are also conducting research on the signs of power system instability, traffic congestion, andmajor economic fluctuations. We have also been able to identify the occurrence of waves of COVID-19 asstate transitions, and have shown that we can detect the signs before the next wave of the virus arrives.
As large-scale data are collected in a variety of fields and the analysis of predictive signs advances,“uncertainty” will gradually decrease. In other words, it can be expected that systems will be created sothat we can detect signs before an undesirable event occurs, and to take preventive measures.
Professor Aihara has long been involved in the formulation of mathematical models of various real-world complex systems,
research that has been widely applied in fields including engineering, industry, and medicine, and which has created thegroundwork for mathematical modeling that will aid in the solution of social problems. He is a specialist in mathematicalengineering and chaos engineering. He took his Ph.D. in engineering from The University of Tokyo in 1982. Professor Aihara
assumed his current position in 2020, following a career that included a full professorship in The University of Tokyo’s
Graduate School of Engineering. He also serves as Deputy Director of The University of Tokyo’s International ResearchCenter for Neurointelligence. Professor Aihara has published numerous papers in “Science” and other leading international
journals.
Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
Expert Opinions

Improving the Ability of Organizations to Learn andAnticipate Based on Data from “Normal” Operations
The Great East Japan Earthquake caused the loss ofcontrol of a nuclear power plant. It is considered that this was
because the scale of the tsunami that overwhelmed the plantexceeded expectations. However, even before the earthquake, voices
had been raised pointing out the danger of a massive tsunami. The
global financial crisis, the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, the
COVID-19 pandemic: each of these is taken to be a typical example
of events in an “age of uncertainty.” However, I believe that these
events were foreseeable, and I strongly hold to the position that it is
Masaharu Kitamura
important for us not to miss signs and warnings, and to improve ourEmeritus Professor, Tohoku
ability to foresee possible future events.
University / Director, TeMS Co., Ltd.
Traditionally, safety has been defined as freedom fromunacceptable risk. But if measures are taken to eliminate “unacceptable risk,” the strategy focuses on
eliminating the causes of accidents and failures that lead to dangerous situations. However, the increasing
complexity of the socio-technical systems employed by our modern societies cannot be dealt with by suchtraditional organizational management. Seeking to realize safety only by moving in the direction ofcorrecting errors or standardizing the behavior of employees of organizations, without taking into accountthe fact that systems and environments change from moment to moment, is not sufficient as a safetymeasure in an age of uncertainty. A new concept of safety is needed (See note).
What organizations need to acquire is the robustness to resist being overcome by events, to limit
damage, and to rapidly return to their previous state. These characteristics are termed “resilience,” andthe measures required to achieve them are termed “resilience engineering.” The key here is theenhancement of four potentials: responding, monitoring, anticipating, and learning.
Major incidents are rare, but the signs that portend them are present in our daily activities. By
analyzing the behavior of systems and environments during “normal” times, we can understand the signalsthat can act as warning signs. Adjustments in response to fluctuations are made on a daily basis. It is
important to learn lessons from examples of good practice under normal conditions and to extrapolate thoselessons to the future in order to prepare for major disturbances. However, preventing future damage iscostly. Given that perfect responses will be difficult to implement, it will be best for us to adopt the mosteffective possible measures within the constraints of limited time and resources, taking into account theefficiency-thoroughness trade-off of the response.
(Note) The conventional concept of safety is termed “Safety-I,” and is defined as “as little as possible thatcan go wrong to prevent continued functioning.” The concept of safety that encompasses robust tolerance
and resilience is termed “Safety-II,” and is defined as “as much as possible that can go right while allowing
continued functioning.”
A leading authority on resilience engineering (RE), Professor Kitamura has long been engaged in research and developmentof methods of implementation of RE and its application to a variety of fields. He specializes in nuclear safety engineering,
reactor instrumentation engineering, human factors, RE and system safety. He holds a Ph.D. (1970) from Tohoku University’s
Graduate School of Engineering. Before assuming his current position in 2012, he served as an assistant professor, professor,
and Director of Tohoku University’s New Industry Creation Hatchery Center. In addition to his research in the field of RE,
Professor Kitamura is also actively promoting direct dialogue with the public on a variety of issues related to nuclear
technology.

Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
Expert Opinions

Recognize the Importance of Networking Technology
Failures that occur when multiple devices are networked
are a serious danger to our societies. A series of major system
failures at Mizuho Bank in 2021 were reportedly triggered by amalfunction or misconfiguration of a single piece of equipment. As
far back as 2003, a major power outage in the northwestern UnitedStates and Canada, which included New York, is said to have been
triggered by a failure at a specific power plant. As we see from this,many large-scale failures that occur due to networking arebutterfly effects resulting from local failures (See note).
Toshimitsu Ushio
In order to allow prompt action to be taken in the event ofProfessor, Department of Systems
a network system failure, it is necessary to conduct a detailed
Science, Graduate School ofEngineering Science, Osaka
analysis of what will happen when the system is networked. If a
University
failure occurs, it is essential to ensure that only the informationnecessary to determine the cause of that failure and to allow
decisions to be made towards recovery is accurately conveyed to the operators. If the operators receive ahigh volume of information that is not relevant to identifying the cause of the problem, it may lead to delays
or errors in their judgment, which in turn may lead to a more dangerous situation. It is important todetermine the “quality of information,” i.e., the nature of each piece of information, how it is used, andwhat impact it may have, and to manage information hierarchically before emergencies occur. For example,
information is treated differently depending on whether it relates to something that could lead to adangerous situation or something that could directly threaten peoples’ lives.
After a failure has occurred, it is important to verify the cause, collect data one by one from thetime of the failure, and work steadily to improve the system. However, while responses based on past cases
can be left to AI, in the case of unexpected events such as cyber-attacks from unknown sources or the
spread of novel viruses, which are likely to occur frequently in the future, human judgment and response
based on the essential information are the only way to deal with them. It would be more efficient todetermine in advance the data that are necessary for human judgment, have AI learn it, and have AI send
the necessary data to human operators in a contingency.
Up to the present, the importance of technologies that contribute to networking has been little
recognized in Japan. This is because Japan has been strong in the development of visible “things,” but has
neglected software, which is an invisible service. The highly developed information and communication
technology must be used to networked objects, boosting the level of system technologies to realize newfunctions. In doing so, we must not forget to improve technologies that not only enable users to employ
networked systems safely and securely, but also contribute to resilience, minimizing any butterfly effectstemming from local failures.
(Note): A phenomenon in which the slightest trigger causes an extremely large impact. The term is used
as a byword for the unpredictability of chaos theory.
Professor Ushio is engaged in education and research in the field of the analysis, design, and control of complex systems,
including the theory of the control of complex systems in which subsystems with different properties are interconnected. He
took his Ph.D. in 1985 from the Department of Systems Science in Kobe University’s Graduate School of Natural Science. He
was a visiting research assistant in UC Berkeley’s Department of Mechanical Engineering, and an associate professor in
Osaka University’s Faculty of Engineering. He has been a professor in Osaka University’s Graduate School of Engineering
Science since 1997, and has published numerous academic papers and other research results both in Japan and abroad.
Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.62
2022.10
Expert Opinions

Make the Transition to Software Development That
Incorporates Uncertainty, Rather Than Aiming for Perfection
The software for the systems that make up the diverse
infrastructure of our societies is increasing in volume year-by-year,with a typical line of code now exceeding 1 million lines, and 10 million
lines in the case of codes written for systems. Because these lengthy
codes are written by humans, it is only natural that mistakes will bemade. It is today almost impossible to find all the bugs in software bychecking. It is necessary to make a transition from the Japaneseapproach to development, which is to create a perfect product without
bugs. Bugs will always occur. We need to transition to the idea of being
Juichi Takahashi
comfortable with bugs rather than regarding them as our enemies,
Director and CTSO, AGEST Inc.,and when problems do occur, we should think in terms of how to
and Director, AGEST Testing Lab.
reduce downtime.
The important thing is the value of the system that has to be protected. Even if one part of thesystem stops functioning, service should continue to be provided, even if some inconvenience is experienced.
Looking at the Mizuho Bank ATM shutdowns and communications failures that occurred involving au (aJapanese mobile carrier) in 2021 and 2022, even if some ATMs were out of commission, the rest of thesystem should have been made to work, and only emergency calls should have been allowed, even if they
were made to other companies. In the U.S., Netflix deliberately causes failures in some systems that are
actually in operation, and automatically restores the systems that have gone down while maintaining theminimum level of service. This could be termed an IT “evacuation drill.”
As systems become more complex, methods of assembling software in “modules” (also known as“microservices”), which are grouped by function, have come into practice. This allows for greater
independence between modules, so that even if one part of the system fails, the entire system will not beaffected. The development of these modules, which are the foundation of reliability, is overseen by
extremely competent engineers who are chosen via a rigorous selection process. A team of highly qualified
personnel is attached to each module to minimize “coupling paths” that cause bugs. In the world of software
engineering, it is said that the output of highly capable personnel is up to 26 times higher than that ofthose less capable. A lower level of ability could lead to more bugs and reduced productivity. Foreign IT
companies spend much more time on recruitment than their Japanese counterparts, and they offer a highlevel of remuneration for superior human resources.
As the areas of implementation of software expand, there is an increasing need for engineers to
be involved in management in numerous respects, including thinking regarding responses to unpredictablesituations, the approach to be taken in order to ensure the quality of systems, and judgment of the scale ofbudgets. Japanese engineers tend not to be involved in management, and management is out of touch withthe knowledge and intuition of software developers. This is also why there is a lack of awareness in Japanthat bugs actually do happen. It is an urgent issue to incorporate engineers' perspectives into management,
as GAFAM has done.
Juichi Takahashi is a leading expert in the field of software testing. He has been engaged in research and development ofeffective software testing techniques for increasingly bloated and complex software. He took a Ph.D. in informationengineering from Hiroshima City University, after having studied methods of determination of software quality under Dr.
Cem Kaner (the inventor of exploratory testing methodologies) and Dr. James Whittaker (author of How Google Tests
Software) at the Florida Institute of Technology..Dr. Takahashi assumed his current position following terms at Microsoft’s
Seattle Headquarters, SAP Japan, and Sony Corporation. He also serves as CTSO of Digital Hearts Holdings Co., Ltd.
Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji. This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here. Translated by Michael Faul.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement

My Vision No.61
2022.8Expert Opinions

What Can and Do We Want to Know Under
Uncertainty?
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted two important
facts: First, the unpredictable nature of events and the enormousrole that uncertainty plays in our lives. Second, the fact thatgovernments’ response to uncertainty can lean toward drastic
reductions in individual freedoms and liberties.
Obviously, in times of uncertainty, rapid and efficient
coordination is key, and democratically elected governments aregood candidates to take the lead. However, at least since Hayek
Miriam Teschl(e.g. 1945), we may wonder whether all relevant knowledge
Associate Professor, Ecole desresides with a centrally coordinated institution such as a “crisis
hautes études en sciences sociales
response team.” In fact, there is at least one piece of information(EHESS)
that it does not know: where the virus is. This may be better
known by the many people “in the field” with or without symptoms, who decide to get tested to verify
their “infection-status”. Hence decentralized testing should play a crucial role in any governmental
response.
But testing not only tells us where the virus is, it also helps us in assessing the dynamic ofviral spread. “Antifragility” is what we, as citizens, as well as governments and crisis response teams,
seek to achieve under uncertainty. To achieve this, we can develop a simple “acceleration index”(Baunez et al., 2021), which is built on the idea that the more we test and the more cases that we find,the more harm accelerates. Correspondingly, the more we test and the fewer cases that we findproportionally, the more harm decelerates. Any public health measures should therefore beaccompanied by testing strategies and aim at finding ever fewer cases. Would curfews be enough tostop viral spread? Are massive vaccination programs working? To know this, we have to see whether
they help in decelerating harm, and compare which policy is better in doing so.
Liberal societies should be first to acknowledge that under uncertainty, knowledge may notreside in government officials and specialists only, but may be dispersed among many players. As ageneral rule, therefore, decentralized mechanisms such as testing that inform and contribute to healthpolicies should be favored over indiscriminate and technocratic top-down decision making.
Correspondingly, indicators have to be adapted to take account of the number of cases in relation to
tests, and the acceleration index is a parsimonious way of doing so in real-time.
Reference
Hayek, F. (1945), “The Use of Knowledge in Society”, The American Economic Review, 35(4), pp. 519-530.
Taleb, N. (2012), Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, Random House.
Baunez, C., Degoulet, M., Luchini, S., Pintus, P., Teschl, M. (2021),“Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: An Acceleration Index with an
Application to French Age Groups and Départements,” PLoS ONE, 16(6), e0252443.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252443
Miriam Teschl is associate professor in economic philosophy at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales(EHESS) and is based at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE). This academic year, she is visiting researcher
at the Nova School for Business and Economics in Portugal. Recently, she has started, together with an interdisciplinary
study group, to work on more epistemological questions concerning what we can and what we want to know under
uncertainty.
Editor: Reiko Kanda, Maiko Sakaki and Tatsuya Yamaji.
Copyright Ⓒ 2022 by Nippon Institute for Research Advancement