MyVision

No.11 2015.7

The Future ofJapan-China Relations
2015, marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, is also a year
in which Japan will give fresh consideration to its relations with the rest of theworld, with reference to both pre-war and postwar history. Given that China, already a superpower and continuing its expansion, must form part of these reflections, how should Japan approach its relations with its neighbor in the future?
In this issue of My Vision, we ask what stance Japan should adopt in relation to
China.

CONTENTS
Expert Opinions

What Approach should Japan Take to China?
Maintain a “hedge and engage” Recognizing wartime tragedies,approach to dialogueemphasize Japanʼs postwar
contribution to peace
Shinichi Kitaoka
President, International University of Japan

Ezra F. Vogel

Japan should continue its eﬀorts
to incorporate China into theinternational system

Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus,
Harvard University

Roderick MacFarquhar

The Leroy B. Williams Professor of History and Political
Science, Harvard University

We must develop an accurate awarenessof the reality of China
Toshiya Tsugami

President, Tsugami Workshop, Ltd.

About this Issue

We should recognize that Japan isin a unique position
Shin Kawashima

Professor, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences,
The University of Tokyo

Expert Opinions

What Approach should Japan Take to China?
Displaying expansionist tendencies both economically and politically/militarily, China has called for a“new superpower relationship” with the United States. As Chinaʼs presence on the world stage continues
to increase, what stance should Japan adopt towards the nation in the future? In this issue of,
we discuss this question with Japanese and American experts in contemporary Chinese politics andeconomics and China-Japan diplomatic relations.

Interviewers: Yuya Nishiyama, Naoko Mori Editor: Kazuyoshi Harada
Period of interviews: February - March 2015

Maintain a “hedge and engage” approach todialogue
Shinichi Kitaoka
President, International University of Japan
China’s expansion is consequential not only to Japan but rather has
global implications. Historically, there are few examples of such anenormous power rising so rapidly. When dealing with China, Japan
should take advantage of collective wisdom gained by working withthe rest of the world. It is important not to view China as an adversary, but rather to welcome it as a positive member into the international community.
To facilitate this process, it will be important for Japan to strengthen both the Japan-U.S. alliance and its self-defense capacity, to improve its relations with China, and to build relations with other countries. Balance is the key. In relations with China, it will be essential toadopt a “hedge and engage” approach. Engagement is implemented
to ensure that China does not become a threat, while remaining vigilant. Hedging is applied in order to prepare for any threat. That is basically the essence. The summit diplomacy pursued by Prime Minister Abe is receiving praise from all quarters, but it is important forJapan to further broaden understanding from other countries. Whilebuilding a network that can influence China, Japan should improve
economic and political relations and strengthen its own cooperative
relationship with China.
At the same time, it is also important to persist with dialogue on
historical issues. With regard to the understanding of historical issues, China claims that there is a country that does not recognize its
invasion into Chaina, suggesting Japan, but Japan has admitted thefacts of its actions on numerous occasions, including in the report of
the Japan-China Joint History Research Project. Further, Japan has
made a consistent contribution to world peace in the postwar period.
When what is being argued is not factual, Japan should not give
ground and be firm in its refutation. However, needless provocation
should be avoided and a spirit of friendly dialogue be maintained. We
should always speak the truth.
An accurate understanding of historical facts will also facilitate

deepening mutual understanding between Japan and China, and promote mutual recognition and education as neighboring countries
about each other’s features that are worthy of respect. Perhaps the
publication of books presenting the perspectives of both countries
would be useful. An initiative of this type would work to achieve thegoal stated in the UNESCO Constitution: “it is in the minds of men
that the defences of peace must be constructed.” ■Professor Kitaoka provides commentary on a broad range of contemporary
political and diplomatic issues. He also advises the Abe Cabinet regarding
foreign policy. From 2006 to 2008, he was the Japanese Chairperson of theJapan-China Joint History Research Committee.

Japan should continue its eﬀorts to incorporate
China into the international system
Roderick MacFarquhar
The Leroy B. Williams Professor of History and Political Science,
Harvard University
The US is likely to elect either Hillary Clinton or a Republican aspresident in 2016. In either case, the US will continue to strengthen
and modernize its military with China’s own increased defense
spending as a major reason. US strategic analysts see China as a potential antagonist in some kind of conflict. With China pursuing aforward policy in its surrounding seas, Washington is also well awareof its need to reassure allies and friends in Asia that it will not letthem down.
But the US has always wanted its allies to play a significant role intheir own defense, and would therefore welcome a considerable
strengthening of Japan’s self-defense forces. The key issue would be
for Japan to stress that its measures were designed to strengthen thealliance rather than to portray its increased defense effort as an attempt to go it alone. The latter posture would worry both Washington
and Beijing and would be counter-productive.
Japan should strengthen the Japan-US relationship and continue its
efforts to incorporate China into the international system, always being aware that this may be more difficult under the present Chinese

My Vision No.11

leadership. Japan should therefore firm up its relations with other
Asian countries such as India, Indonesia and the smaller countries of
SE Asia. Prime Minister Abe has been making moves of this type,and it is important that they are seen in those countries not simply as
designed to increase Japan’s economic penetration but as genuine efforts to increase understanding and friendship. Perhaps Japan could
enlarge its Japanese Overseas Cooperation Volunteers program so as
to expose more Asians to idealistic Japanese youth. ■Professor MacFarquhar has engaged with China’s contemporary history as
both journalist and academic, and his considerations regarding China’s Cultural Revolution and Chinese politics more generally are highly regarded.
Professor MacFarquhar took up his present position following a term as the
Director of the John King Fairbank Center for East Asian Research.

We must develop an accurate awareness of
the reality of China
Toshiya Tsugami
President, Tsugami Workshop, Ltd
The expectation that China’s high level of growth will continue isan illusion. The Xi Jinping system is facing a powerful sense of crisis
occasioned by the correction of China’s high growth trajectory, andthe nation has changed significantly in the last two and a half years.
Japan, however, has not corrected its own trajectory in this regard,and still possesses an excessively overblown view of China and an
excessively inflated sense of apprehension in relation to China.
The inflation of China’s own image commenced in 2009, with thenation’s rapid recovery from the financial crisis and the role it thenplayed as an engine of the world economy. The Chinese public also
believed that the day was near when China would become the world’s
greatest economic power, producing a sense of euphoria.
However, since a couple of years ago, China has experienced severe after-effects from an investment bubble. If the economic brakes
were put on too hard, there would be the chance that the country
might fall into negative growth, potentially shaking the foundationsof its political system; if the brakes were applied softly, it would befeared that the nation’s balance sheet would continue to deteriorate
and might eventually collapse. At the brink of a precipice, China isseeking to proceed so as to prevent either of these eventualities frommanifesting. A further consideration is the fact that in another 10
years, the nation’s working population will decline by seven to eight
million per year, and its productive power will consequently decline
significantly.
Prioritizing the continuation of the nation’s political system, China’s leaders wish to correct their past hardline foreign policy stance,
but at the same time do not wish to damage the pride of the Chinese
public, which has become inflated over the previous several years.
The AIIB initiative can be viewed as a means of satisfying that pridethrough “economic superpower diplomacy” rather than hard power.
It will take some time for the illusion of China’s high growth to bedispelled. Because the momentum of China’s military expansion will
not decline immediately, it can be predicted that the East Asian security environment will continue to experience instability. Both China
and Japan will require wisdom and effort to navigate a course
through this period of instability marked by a disjunction between illusion and reality. ■Mr. Tsugami heads a consulting company concentrating on the contemporary Chinese economy, and offers wide-ranging commentary on the realityof modern China. On the political front, he favors a “cool head, warm heart”
approach, which focuses on realizing an accurate understanding of the other nation rather than falling into emotional arguments.

Recognizing wartime tragedies, emphasize
Japan’s postwar contribution to peace
Ezra F. Vogel
Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus,
Harvard University
Prime Minister Abe’s first order of business in his statement tomark the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII should be to emphasize Japan’s unwavering commitment to peace in the postwar era,and its intention to maintain that orientation. Japan has made anenormous contribution to peace since the end of the war. The nation’scontributions to the United Nations and its economic assistance toChina and South Korea are particularly noteworthy. Another thingthat Japan should attempt to make more widely known in China is
the fact that unlike many other nations, it applied few sanctions following the Tiananmen Square incident.
With regard to historical issues, a clear apology from Japan that
acknowledges its actions during WWII would be desirable. While
the actual number of victims involved can be left to historians to decide, the existence of “comfort women” and the occurrence of the
Nanjing incident should be recognized as facts. The government’s
being seen to make efforts to explain the facts of what happened
during the war to the Japanese public would emphasize Japan’s
peaceful postwar stance. One possibility would be to visit museums
in China and create war museums in Japan.
It will also be essential for Prime Minister Abe to express gratitude
towards the soldiers who died for their country and their survivingfamily members. This is not, of course, to imply in any way that war
is a good thing.
Those are my thoughts concerning Prime Minister Abe’s statement. Regarding China’s current military activities, Japan should
communicate to China the fact that it has the right to defend itself,
and that the Japanese public has the strong impression that China isbeing provocative, and observe China’s activities with close attention.
Japan should also work together with China in peaceful cooperation,seeking to enhance relations with other Asian nations via political,
economic and cultural exchange. The business community and othernon-governmental actors are also working to promote exchange between China and Japan, and it would be beneficial to bolster thistrend on a variety of fronts. ■Professor Vogel is a world authority in the study of East Asia. The publicationof his book “Japan as Number One” in 1979 sparked reassessment of Japan’s
economic and social systems both within Japan and internationally. Professor Vogel recently wrote “Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China”
published in 2011.

We should recognize that Japan is ina unique position
Shin Kawashima
Professor, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences,
The University of Tokyo
Within the G7, Japan tends to be isolated as a result of its stance regarding China. It has joined together with the U.S. in adopting a“hedge and engage” approach to its China diplomacy, but we should
be aware that it is difficult for the international community to sympathize with this stance.
China strategically adopts different diplomatic approaches depending on the situation. With regard to global issues such as the situation

in Ukraine and IS, China basically cooperates with the West, anddisplays no intention to oppose resolutions. Because of this, it is difficult for the Europeans, geographically distant as they are, to genuinely feel the threat of China. On the other hand, the U.S. attempts tohedge in relation to China, for instance in the South China Sea, but at
the same time regards economic relations with China as an opportunity. Considered from the U.S. perspective, it is natural to seek to simultaneously improve relations with China and strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, and the U.S. therefore may not always act inconcert with Japan’s intentions.
A number of East Asian nations are involved in territorial disputes
with China and feel enmity towards the country, but also depend on
it economically and are unable to oppose it on the security front.
Therefore, even if they sympathize with Japan’s position, they may
not feel the same strength of opposition as Japan, and may not be able
to adopt the same course of action.
Japan is therefore in a unique position, whether in the G7 or in East
Asia, and must consider carefully how to make other countries understand its perspective. What Japan has to do is to individually consider how the other country perceives Japan and China and what its

particular concerns are, and offer a convincing explanation of Japan’s
standpoint on this basis.
China is already the world’s second largest economy, and it is difficult to imagine East Asian prosperity or stability in the absence of dialogue with China. China and Japan are rivals, and public sentimentis worsening in both nations. However, the Chinese and Japanesepublics each regard the other as important. What will open up a new
era is the discovery of common interests and concerns and the development of a new type of cooperative relationship between the nations. ■Professor Kawashima specializes in contemporary Chinese history and Asianpolitical and diplomatic history, and conducts research from a historical perspective on approaches to be taken by the international community with regard to diplomacy towards China. He also actively makes proposals regarding approaches for Japanese diplomacy.
This is a translation of a paper originally published in Japanese.
NIRA bears full responsibility for the translation presented here.
Translated by Michael Faul.

About this Issue

The Future of Japan-China Relations

2015 marks 70 years since the end of World War II. To
commemorate this landmark year, Japan’s Prime Minister
intends to issue a new statement regarding the war. Interest
is focusing on the nature of Japan’s future involvement in
the international community, based on the nation’s pre-war
and postwar history. It can be expected that Prime Minister Abe will discuss the future strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance, which has been the fundamental pivotof Japan’s postwar diplomacy.
The issue here is how Japan should relate to Asia in future, and above all to a rapidly expanding China. Naturally, given that China faces numerous complex problems,
until the direction of the nation’s internal and external policies is known, this question involves elements of uncertainty. However, China is already a superpower, and has
called for a “new superpower relationship” with the U.S.; itseems unlikely that the nation’s fundamental orientation of
economic, political and military expansionism will change.
The question, then, is what stance Japan should adopt in
relation to China in the future given that nation’s internaland external circumstances.
Should Japan assume a relative decline in U.S. power

and prepare for a threat from China by strengthening its
self-defense capabilities to the greatest possible extent?
Should it engage in unflagging diplomatic efforts to build
a containment zone around China? Should it accept China’s expansion as a given, and strengthen ties with the nation by working to improve relations not only economically, but also politically? Or should it follow its previous
course, and strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance while continuing to work to incorporate China in the international
system? All of these options have already been the subjectof national debate, but the 70th anniversary of the end of
the war offers an opportunity to re-examine the questions.
In this issue of My Vision, five prominent U.S. and Japanese intellectuals offer lucid responses to these questions.
Almost all feel that Japan should hedge against a potential
threat, while engaging with China in order to encourage its
greater participation in the international system. Some,however, see the possibility of China’s conformance with
the international community under its present system aslow. Crystallizing their thoughts into a short space, theseexperts on the China question offer numerous hints regarding how Japan should approach its neighbor.

National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA)
4-20-3 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-6034, Japan(URL: http://www.nira.or.jp/english/)(Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nira.japan)
For more information : info@nira.or.jp
Tel +81-3-5448-1710
Fax +81-3-5448-1744
Copyright Ⓒ 2015 by National Institute for Research Advancement