NTAA JOURNAL 2021.9

Vol.8

IFTA 講演・寄稿論文
一目均衡表による世界の主要株価指数の予測分析
DZH フィナンシャルリサーチ チーフストラテジスト

東野 幸利

要旨

一目均衡表は細田悟一氏（1898 〜 1982）が長年の金融市場の研究を通じて開発した相場分析手法である。細田氏の没後 40 年近く経た現在でも、市場分析や取引を行うための有効なツールとして、トレーダーや投資家、分析者に広く親しまれている。

最近では、アジアを中心に世界中でも「Ichimoku」が普及し始めているが、効果的には活用されていないようである。なぜかというと、一目均衡表は、「価格予測」「時間予測」「波動分析」など、多面的な市場分析の原理・手法が統合されたものであるため、完全にマスターするのが非常に困難だからである。当然ながら一目均衡表には原著が存在するが、海外で扱うには言語の大きな壁に遭遇する。欧米人にとっては、日本語はさまざまな意味で厄介な言語である。日本語の語彙は英語とはまったく異なり、文法構造もまったく異なるため、日本語から英語への翻訳は非常に難しく、原著で使われている日本語の適切な英訳を見つけるのも困難だ。

そこで、筆者が 2019 年に開催された IFTA カイロ大会で発表した内容をベースにしたものを以下で紹介する。原著に書かれている日本語を平易な英語に翻訳したものを利用し、さらに関連する理論を加え、2020 年発行の IFTA ジャーナルに寄稿したものからの抜粋となる。すべてを掲載すると相当な分量になるため、一目均衡表の基本的な一部の見方と当時の NY ダウ、上海総合指数、エジプトの主要指数である EGX30 を予測分析したもので構成している。

Basic concept of the Ichimoku Chart(Introduction)‑ The middle‑point of the price range is regarded‑ Ichimoku is focused on the underlying “powers”

ory are the “time” principle, “wave structure” prin-it suﬃces to know which side, buyers or sellers, is‑ One of the important traits of Ichimoku is its

in the market. To know the next market direction,

as important.

‑ The three basic components of the Ichimoku the-ciple, and the “price level” principle.

winning or losing. The market moves in the direc-“time” study. Most market players focus on priceand sellers has been broken. The chart developed

Ichimoku, it is considered that while price moves

rium state of the market. This is why it was named

than the price factor; without a solid “time” study,

Glance Equilibrium Chart” in Japanese.

kets.

tion in which the equilibrium between the buyers
by Hosoda allows one to instantly grasp the equilib-“Ichimoku Kinko Hyo”, which literally means “Onemoves, and tend to make light of the time factor. In

are important, the time factor is more important

one cannot have a true understanding of the mar-

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The three basic principles of Ichimoku
After conﬁrming Sanʼyaku Koten, you should

consider the three basic principles of the “wavestructure”, “price level”, and the “time”. Figure 1

shows all the points. Notice that the bull market

consists of three waves, and an equilibrium isestablished between price and time. The same

Figure 2．Wave Structure Principle

applies to the bear market. It is highly probablethat the market direction will reverse at the equilibrium point of the horizontal and vertical axes.

Price level principle‑ In ichimoku, there are the four basic projection

methods as shown below.

N projection ‑‑ Up: N = C + (B ‑ A) Down: N = C ‑ (A ‑ B)

* These two equations are eﬀectively the same.

But I am showing both as I believe this makes it
intuitively easier to understand for readers. Thesame applies to the following.

‑ Up: N projection adds the distance of the last
upleg to the last low.
Figure 1．The three basic principles of Ichimoku‑ Down: N projection Subtracts the distance of thelast downleg from the last high.

Wave Structure Principle

First of all, the wave structure principle isvery simple. Hosoda classiﬁed the wave patterns

that appear in ﬁnancial markets into a numberof groups according to their wave structure, andgave unique names. I wave is a single rectilinear
or straightish (normally sharp) thrust up or down

without notable corrective moves. V wave consist-Figure 3．N Projection

ing of two successive I waves, a sharp thrust up

followed by a sharp thrust down, or a sharp thrust
down followed by a sharp thrust up. N wave anV projection ‑‑ Up: V = B + (B‑ C) Down: V = B ‑ (C ‑ B)wave pattern most commonly seen in the market.

downleg to the last high.

up‑down‑up or down‑up‑down wave. This is the‑ Up: V projection adds the distance of the last

When N wave extend to nine waves, it is‑ Down: V projection subtracts the distance of thejudged that the uptrend is close to the limit. And

when the price falls below the previous low, theuptrend terminates with the top forming pattern.
56

last upleg from the last low.

This is the target to sell half of the position.

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Vol.8‑ Down: NT projection subtracts the distance

between the last two highs from the last high.
Time principle

The third subject is the time projection. One

striking characteristic of the Ichimoku theory is thedegree of importance it places on the time factor.

Hosoda taught, “It is not that time merely passes as

prices ﬂuctuate in the market. Time inﬂuences theFigure 4．V Projection

market. The market is dictated by time.”

Ichimoku calculates “Reversal dates” in theE projection ‑‑ Up: E = B + (B ‑ A) Down: E = B ‑ (A ‑ B)

‑ Up: E projection adds the distance of the last

following “Basic number”‑based projection and“Time parity”‑based projection. These two meth-upleg to the last high.

ods can be used separately or simultaneously.

last downleg from the last low.

a) “Basic number”‑based projection‑ Down: E projection subtracts the distance of theThis is the target to sell all the positions.

First, I explain “Basic number”‑based projec-tion. Following (Table 1) are the “Basic numbers”

to be used with period data as default parameters.
In addition to that, there are 83,97,101, etc. Some

Ichimoku researchers claim that they have foundthat 5,13,21 should be added as Basic numbers
when dealing with weekly data.

Table 1．“Basic numbers” to be used with period date

Basic number Comments

Figure 5．E Projection

917‑Useful for calling intermediate tops/bottoms (9+9‑1)

26‑First term, Useful in up markets (9+17)33‑Particularly useful in down markets(17+17‑1)

42‑Very important in both up and down
markets (17+26‑1)

51‑Second term (26+26‑1)

65‑More useful in up markets than in down
markets (33+33‑1)

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Figure 6．NT Projection

129
NT projection ‑‑ Up: NT = C + (C ‑ A) Down: NT = C ‑ (A ‑ C)

‑Useful for calling intermediate tops/bottoms

172‑Third term, More useful in up markets
than in down markets (26+26+26‑2)‑More useful in up markets than in down
markets (65+65‑1)‑More useful in up markets than in down
markets (33+65+76‑2)‑ Up: NT projection adds the distance between thelast two low to the last low.

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Reversal dates are projected by adding “Basicnumbers” to the high or low on which the trend
reversed. Figure 7 illustrates that.

Reversal dates are the dates on which themarket is projected to “reverse” directions at rel-atively high probabilities. However, the market

does not always “reverse” on a Reversal date. In astrongly trending market, the existing move some-Figure 8．“Time parity”‑based projection

times simply “accelerates”, instead of “reverses”,
on a Reversal date. This happens more often ina down‑trending market, than in an up‑trendingmarket. Suppose there is a market that has beenmoderately declining into a Reversal date. If it

cannot reverse direction during that time window,
oftentimes it starts falling sharply.

the low D into the future(4) Add the time distance (the number of the days)

between the high A and the high C to the dateof the low D into the future

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Monthly

Figure 9 is a monthly chart of the Dow Jones

Industrial Average. In July 2019, a high wasreached at N projection of 27251 dollars in N

wave from March 2009. After that, the stock pricedropped sharply, however Sanʼyaku Koten contin-ued. And the conversion line has accelerated inOctober 2019, therefore the market became more

Figure 7．“Basic number”‑based projection

bullish. As a result of responding to changes in theconversion line, November 2019 was a signiﬁcantacceleration point as it was the month which com-

ing with the time parity 12 and the basic numberb) “Time parity”‑based projection

Second is “Time parity”‑based projection. In

this method, Reversal dates are projected by add-

ing the same time distance between two key dates

129.

And the 2V projection of 29654 dollars froma low in 2009 has reached at February 2020. TheFebruary high was close to time parity number 25

in the past to the high or low on which the trend

from the January 2016 low to the January 2018

Figure 8 illustrates this.

means that the time and the price did coincide.

reversed, from which to project into the future.

(1) Add the time distance (the number of the days)

between the high C and the low D to the date of
the low D into the future(2) Add the time distance (the number of the days)

between the low B and the low D to the date of
the low D into the future(3) Add the time distance (the number of the days)

between the high A and the low D to the date of58

high. It is a basic number 26 in the ﬁrst place. This
After that, the stock price dropped sharply. If themarket can stay Sanʼyaku Koten after the correc-tion, one should judge that the uptrend will continue until the coincidence point of time and priceis reached again.

Basically, the points where the trend is likely

to change are the timing when the lagging span

touches the stock price. If the lagging span falls

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Vol.8

below the stock price, a bearish sign is conﬁrmed.

Shanghai composite index, Monthly

ging span jumps to support the stock price atcomposite index. Look at the long term N wave

However, as with the 2016 correction, if the lagthat time(January 2014), the trend will be furtherstrengthened.

Figure 10 is a monthly chart of the Shanghai

from a low in 2008. The coincidence point of 81

months close to the Basic number 83 and the mid-

If it exceeds the high in February 2020, it willdle‑point(VE:5199) of E and V in the N wave wasof 30232 dollars from the low in 2009. Also, there

Currently, it is moving in the downward wave

be the ninth wave. The upside target is E projectionis V projection of 32190 dollars in the period after

the reversal month for the upward wave.

from a high in 2015. In the short term, the conver-2018. This is an important target that consistentsion line may go above the base line, however itin 2009. And the most important timing on thewave can be predicted to continue. In that case, thewith 3E projection of 32097 dollars from the low

time projection is from July to October in 2021,

from January to April in 2022, December in 2022
and June in 2023.

is not just Sanʼyaku Koten. That is, the downwardcoincidence point of the time parity 81,93,97 andV projection of 1689 in the N wave from a high in2015 is likely to be an important reversal month

Figure 9．Monthly chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average

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for the downward wave. In addition to, focusing on

EGX30 Index, Weekly

32, 37, 44 may also be important as the time on

Currently, it is a small‑scale rebound from the low

jection of 1689 in the N wave from a high in 2015ary 2019, N wave from the low in December 2018the move from a high in 2015, the time parity 13,

the horizontal axis. The downside target is V pro-Figure 11 is a weekly chart of the EGX30 Index.

in December 2018. If it exceeds the high in Febru-

as well as N projection of 2141 and V projection ofcan be conﬁrmed. And you can predict N(16457)

If it exceeds a high in 2018 with Sanʼyaku

is important to predict the middle‑point(17511) of1592 in the N wave from a high in 2018.

and E(18566) upward projections. In addition, it

Koten, it is likely to lead to a larger N wave start-

N and E projections. After the short correction, if

coming with the time parity 32, 37, 44, 68, 81, 93,

starting from the low in January 2016 can be

upward wave. And it is considered that the upwardfrom the low in January 2016 to the high in Aprilor the level of 4909 obtained using the habitual

April 2018 to the low in December 2018 will be an

ing from a low in 2013. In this case, the month

97 will be the important reversal month for thewave will continue until the N projection of 5698
price range.

it exceeds the high in April 2018, a larger N waves
conﬁrmed. In that case, the price range of 12701

2018 and the price range of 6338 from the high inimportant factor for the price projection.

Figure 10．Monthly chart of the Shanghai composite index

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However, if it falls below the low in December

2018, the medium‑term N wave starting from thehigh in April 2018 can be conﬁrmed. And you canpredict N, V and E downward projections.

Vol.8

December 2018 and the basic number 129,172

from the high in April 2018, will be the important

reversal weeks.

I have just written about the future assump-After 2020, what is important in the time pro-tions so far, however what I want to say is regard-

and the time parity 66,120 for medium‑termor a downtrend, it will continue until the coinci-

jection is the time parity 34 for short‑term wave

waves. In addition, the week which coming withthe basic number 76,83,97,101 from the low inless of the size of N wave, whether it be an uptrend
dence point of time and price is reached.

Figure 11．Weekly chart of the EGX30 Index
プロフィール

東野 幸利（ひがしの ゆきとし）1968 年 大 阪 生 ま れ。 証 券 会 社、
大 手 銀 行 な ど を 経 て 2006 年 に
DZH フィナンシャルリサーチ入社。 日 本 テ ク ニ カ ル ア ナ リ ス ト協会副理事長、教育部門を担当。
IFTA（国際テクニカルアナリスト連盟）国際検定テクニカルアナリスト。欧州やエジプトなど国際カンファレンスでテクニカル分析の論文発表のほか、明治大学の非常勤講師、同志社大学経済学部で講師経験。テレビ東京、日経 CNBC などに出演。
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