REEPS/Andong University Joint Workshop

Modelling the land use, agriculture and localpollution
E3ME

Unnada Chewpreecha
29 August 2017

Overview• NEXUS and land
• E3ME and FTT-Agriculture• Example research questions

NEXUS Definition

LAND- FIXED*interdependencies *trade-offs

Source(s): Water Footprint

E3ME and FTT-Agriculture• Linkages to land-use (FTT-Agriculture) model isunder development• Ongoing NEXUS research project for Brazil
https://www.camecon.com/news/brazil-food-waterenergy-nexus/

FTT-Agriculture in E3ME
Three stages• Introducing new detailed food demand equations inE3ME• Constructing FTT-Agriculture to allocate land used
• Linking FTT-Agriculture to E3ME and other FTTs

Stage 1: Constructing detailed food demand
equations in E3ME
• 19 different food types for each region including– food crops– bio crops– animal– fishing• units are in physical tonne

Global food consumption, 2013 (1000 tonnes), FAOSTAT2013

Stage 1: Constructing detailed food demand
equations in E3ME
• econometrics approach• demand = function of income and price (with income
converted to a log shaped curve so that demanddoesn’t increase indefinitely).
• corrections are put in for both spoilage and waste(i.e. non-demanded food), and also the primary-final
conversion for animal feed.
• replace food and feed demand (aggregated) inexisting material demand modelling (furtherfeedbacks via IO)

Stage 2: Constructing FTT-Agriculture• FTT -the technology and decision diffusion model
methodology Future Technology Transformations– a group of sectoral models of technological change to calculate
global emissions, using diffusion theory– micro-model of technology choice and substitution, giveneconomic/policy context• E3ME 'top-down' approach is supplemented by a setof 'bottom-up' engineering sub-models (FTT)– the current model version includes a detailed treatment of theelectricity supply industry, road transport and heating (FTT)– recent publication “Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous
agents to better design sustainability transitions policy”, Mercure et al(2016) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.003

FTT-E3ME

Stage 2: Constructing FTT-Agriculture• growing demand for food, bioenergy, housing allcompeting for land
• think of the food types as competing technologies
competing on a fixed amount of land
• E3ME estimate demand for food (stage 1), FTTPower and FTT-Transport estimate demand forbioenergy, simpler treatment of housing demandStage 2: constructing FTT-Agriculture• FTT-Agriculture allocated amount of fixed land todifferent used (supply) to meet demand for food andbio crops (demand) based on land productivity• farmers are more likely to switch to what they know
about, but there will be ‘levelised’ costs based on
soil productivity and the prices for each crop.
• ‘levelized costs’ can be influenced by exogenouspolicies

Stage 3: Feedback to E3ME
• The prices are returned to the main model and backinto the equations.
– food price paid by end users – consumer and industry
demand (domestic, imports and exports)– biofuel price – power generation, transport energy demand

E3ME and FTT-Agriculture Overview

Demand forfood (E3ME)- food tax- subsidy

Food material
demandTotal demand
for landIO feedback

FTTAgriculture
Land allocatedto different
uses

Food priceConsumerdemand

Demand forbiofuels (FTT)

Industry
demand- renewable policy
in PG, industry,heating, transport

Demand forhousing etc

FTT agriculture policies*

Biofuel price- exogenous orgrow withpopulation

Example research questions••••

trade-offs between bioenergy and food productionsocial impacts of higher food prices
potential impacts of meat/vegetarian dietary trends
restrictions on available land and rates ofdeforestation• impacts on pollutions from different land uses

Timetable• Brazil – end of 2017
• Rest of world early 2018

Thank you!
• Contact(s)– Unnada Chewpreecha, Principal Economic Modeller
uc@camecon.com– Hector Pollitt, Director hp@camecon.com– Jean-Francois Mercure, Professor, Radboud University
Nijmegen J.Mercure@science.ru.nl