International Collaboration
forSpace Weather ForecastWants, Seeds and Needs
What is aimed at?

What is thestrength/resource?

What is needed?

Questionnaire submitted in advanceOn the base of this questionnaire,
SOC will prepare the matrix ofneeds/seeds

We SOC will send a questioner to invited
speakers in which we ask their needs, seeds
and wants.
We should prepare some options in each item
for answering easily.

Matrix of needs/seeds

Omiai “お見合い”
coodinators
attendant

attendant“Omiai” is a name of meeting of unmarried man and woman who hope to find apartner. Usually there is a (couple of) coordinator(s)Discussion based on the table for “Omiai”

Discussion

Using this table, each institute has a small meeting with the potentially matchingpartners.
the meeting time should be limited (15-20 min) SOC keeps the time. Each institutewill have three potential partner institutes. In addition they can choose anotherone which they like.
After the meeting we have plenary meeting for discussing the results.

GoalCollaboration

Follow up

We should follow up the results in future AOSWA WS.

Thank you for your cooperation

The Seeds, Needs and Wants of NICTSpace Weather activities
Mamoru Ishii

Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory
Applied Electromagnetic Research InstituteNational Institute of Information and Communications Technology
4-2-1 Nukui-kita, Koganei 184-8795 JAPANRelation of Needs-Seeds in SWx
Solar Terr. Phys.

SunCoronal Hall

SWx the social needs

Magnetosphere/Ionosphere

IPS
High speed
solar wind

Plasma cloud

Disturbance ofmagnetosphere
Increase of highenergy particle

Soalr flare
Increase of highenergy particle

Academic instituteExpanding upper
atmosphere

Study of nknown process

Ground conductivity
distribution
10

HF propagation
Disability ofGNSS

Increase of electron
density

Increase ofionospheric current

Death Valley

Ionization of lower
ionophsere

Change thesatellite orbit

Socialhazard/needs
Hazard tosatellite
operation

Human radiation

Death Valley

Disturbance ofionosphere

X-ray

Satellite
anomary

Increase radiatoin

CME/CIR

influence

Hazard to humanactivity in space
Hazard to aviation
Hazard to telecom,
broadcast
Hazard to positioning

society
Hazard to power line

GIC

SWx becomes Indispensable
information for their task

NICT Space Weather Forecast Center
Forecast information and dataexchange and sharing among
ISES SW forecast center

Real-time space weather monitoring• Flare forecast

Web access:
158,057/month（May, 2013）
No. of e-mailaddressee：
9,271• Magnetic field forecast• High-energy particleforecast• HF propagation
forecast

Simulation results

Solar activity and space environment
are provided with Web, email RSS andFAX. Press release for significant event.

Domestic users: satellite operator, aviation office and companies, power plantcompanies, HF telecommunicator /broadcaster, resource survey, Univ. and research
institutes, amateur HF operators
11NICT SWx Obs. Network
Mar. 2014

Mar. 2014

Far East Mag.＆HF radar network

Solar Radio telescope
Operational Ionosphere Obs.
Network ＆Sun and Solar obs.
systemsMar. 2015

ACE receiver antenna
Ionosonde

Sun and Solarwind
Magnetometer

Syowa,
Antarctica

SEALIONOct.
2014
HF radarNew Ionosonde
systemScientific Results (Ionosphere)
Development of TEC forecast system withneural net
Input： 12 unit
（sun and seasonalparameters）

Neural network
200 unit 1 layer
TEC forecast above Japan（every 1 hour、24 hours）

output：36 unit
（coefficients ofsperical hermonicsfunction）

Long-term simulation of atomosphereionosphere Input real meteorological data

Ion density（altitude300km）

Snapshot of the result ofsimulation used real
meteorological data
Surface temperature

Comparison between simulation of observation of NmF2 above Kokubunji• Trial of TEC forecast system used sun and season
parameters• Next step: add magnetic activity as input parameter• Now we can calculate long-term ( e.g., severaldecade) simulation with development of supercomputer and code.
• It is very new one to calculate atmosphereionosphere simulation with real meteorological
data. We hope to use it for validation of ourmodel and for discussion of the origin of climatechange.

LSWS at the Bottomside, Plumes at the Topside(Yokoyama et al.)

Scientific Results (Magnetosphere)
Geo-space observation network

Development of high resolution magnetosphericsimulation code：extreme event
Original magnetosphericboundary
Original bow shock

Geostationary orbit ―6.6Re

We promote to build
geo-space observation
network forunderstanding thevariation of radiation
belt and developing
the forecast model.
Now we plan to installmagnetometer atFredericton, Canada.

Inner boundary― 3Re

Color contour:
pressurecolor：Vx（top）simulation results under extremely strong solar wind（bottom） same but under quiet condition. magnetopausecrossing can be seen under the extreme event.

We develop an robust and high resolution
global MHD simulation code which canshow realistic results even in extremesituation.

Available Data
• Observing data

– Domestic and antarctic ionogram since IGY– SEALION ionogram, GPS and scintillation data
– Magnetometer data
– Solar radio data : Hiraiso(present) and Yamagawa(nearfuture)• Simulation data archive– Comparing with observation results for evaluation andscientific discussion– MHD magnetosphere model– GAIA: atmospheric/ionospheric model

Highest priority needs –Ionospheric information above ocean• It is necessary to get ionospheric information
above ocean for use of aviation.
• Candidate of observation methods– Oblique sounding with ionosonde– Trans equatorial propagation– GPS buoy
– Satellite occultation17

Trans-Equatorial Propagation (TEP)
Oarai

Equatorial Ionosphericdisturbances
MelbourneRadio Austlaria

Oblique sounding with ionosondes• NICT are now routinelyoperates obliquesounding ionogram
every 15 min.
• NICT and KSWC are
discussing international
oblique sounding
project with VIPIRsystem.
• Development andobservation with simple
receivers will makepossible to increase
observation points.