Space Weather Monitoring andForecast in Taiwan

Tiger J.Y. Liu (劉 正彥)National Space Organization, (NSPO) TAIWAN
National Central University (NCU), TAIWAN
jyliu@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw

I.T. Lee (李 奕德)
Center Weather Bureau (CWB), TAIWANSpace Weather Center
R & D Office (Academia Sinica + Universities: NCU, NCKU)
Operation Office (Center Weather Bureau; CWB)
Mission Office (National Space Organization; NSPO)Content
Introduction
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
3D Plasma Structure and Dynamics

Ionospheric Scintillation
Thump the Ionosphere
FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2

The Past, Present, and FutureSpace Science education: 1958 Ionosonde observation: 1951 Magnetometer observation: 1965 HF Doppler observation: 1989 GPS TEC observation software: 1994 Magnetopause location prediction: 1997 ROCSAT-1 (FORMOSAT-1): 1999-2004
FORMOSAT-2/ISUAL: 2004 FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC: 2006 FORMOSAT-5/AIP: 2015
FORMOSAT-7/TGRO: 2016/2018
Ionospheric Weather (Data Assimilation Model): 2012 -The Magnetopause
The total pressure(including magnetic andthermal pressure) isbalanced across themagnetopause.
The magnetopause
location is controlled byIMF Bz and solar winddynamic pressure Dp.

The Shue et al. [1997]
Magnetopause Location Model
The formula of the Shue et al. [1997] model islisted below:

where r0 is the subsolar standoff distance and α isthe flaring degree of the magnetopause.

A Demonstration ofthe Shue et al. [1997] model

More Information about
the Shue et al. [1997] model
The formula of the model is simple andaccurate.
The model has been widely used inSpace community.
According to the citation report fromWeb of Science, this paper has been
cited in 364 times as of today.

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
Global Real-time
Weather (Meteorology)
Space Weather (Ionosphere)
Observation and Prediction
The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC program is an international
collaboration between Taiwan and the United States thatwill use a constellation of six remote sensing microsatellites
to collect atmospheric data for weather prediction and forionosphere, climate and gravity research. Data from thesatellites will be made freely available to the international scientificcommunity in near real-time.

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC• FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
Constellation was launch at
01:40 UTC, April 14, 2006
(Taiwan Time: April 15 2006) at
Vandenberg Air Force Base,CA. Minotaur Launch• Maneuvered into six different
orbital planes (inclination ~72°)
for optimal global coverage (at~800 km altitude).
• Five out of Six satellites are ingood health and providing
science data.

GPS Radio Occultation

αWavelength and amplitudeof in the vertical direction
Global 3D structure

Distribution of occultation events
observed by FORMOSAT-3GOX3D Plasma Structure andDynamics- Equatorial Ionization Anomaly- Mid-latitude Trough- Weddell Sea Anomaly

3D Ionospheric plasma Structure
(a)

(b)

Plasma cavePlasma Tunnel

Liu et al. (JGR 2010)

Equatorial IonizationAnomaly

2007 M-month2007 J-month2007 S-month2007 D-monthEquatorial Ionization Anomaly

Lin et al. [GRL 2008]

July-August 2006

Remark 1Results suggest that in addition to theasymmetric neutral composition effect,
interactions between the summer-to-winter(transequatorial) neutral winds andstrength of the equatorial plasma fountaineffect play important roles in producing
asymmetric development of the EIA crests
as imaged by the F3/C.

Mid-latitude Trough
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC NmF2 Persudo-3D structure
Northern Hemisphere, M-month
Terminator waves?

lat ×alt ×time: 2°×2km ×0.5hr

Seasonal Variation
The seasonal averaged pseudo
3‐D images of the F2 peakdensity map (log10 (Ne), cm−3)from February 2008 to January
2009 in magnetic polar
coordinates for the Marchequinox, June solstice,
September equinox, andDecember solstice. The innerand outer perimeters are 80° and30° in magnetic latitude. The left
and right columns are results in
the Northern and Southernhemispheres, respectively. The
color and vertical change refer tothe electron density, and thenumbers around each plot givethe geomagnetic local time.
Lee et al. (JGR, 2011)

Remark 2
Results show that the mid-latitude troughextends from dusk to dawn in all four seasonsand is most pronounced in the winterhemisphere.
The troughs in the two hemispheres areasymmetric, where the trough in the Northern
Hemisphere is more evident and stronger thanthat in the Southern Hemisphere during theequinoctial seasons.

Ionospheric Weddell SeaAnomaly
Stronger electron density Ne innighttime than that in daytime over theWeddell Sea area during the Summer

The Ionospheric Weddell Sea Anomaly
1. Stronger nighttime Ne than that during daytime
2. Discovered 50 years ahead of renewed observation byFORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
3. First glance of its vertical structure by F3/C!

22:00LTDecember

JuneWeddell Sea
Anomaly

Ionosonde Observation(Bellchambers and Piggott, 1958)

Lin et al. [2009]Not only occurred in the Southern hemisphere but also in the North- Categorized as the Mid-latitude Summer Nighttime Anomaly (MSNA)

Ne(2200LT) > Ne(1400LT)- driven by equatorward meridional neutral wind
June 2007

December 2007

Lin et al. [2010]

Diurnal variations of F3/C electron density maps at 300km altitude at various global
fixed local times in the four months in the southern hemisphere Chang et al. [2014]

Diurnal variations of F3/C electron density maps at 300km altitude at various global fixed
local times of the four months in the northern hemisphere.
Chang et al. [2014]

Remark 3
It is found that the multiple-speeds in theeastward phase shift are about of 167 and296m/s for the WSA feature in the southernhemisphere, while the peaked double MSNA
feature with speeds yield 91 and 121m/s in thenorthern hemisphere.
The simultaneous eastward phase shifts in theelectron density and the plasma flows suggestthat the neutral winds are essential.
The WSA/MSNA features in fact yield eastward
phase shift and appear all year round.

Ionospheric Scintillation
1200LT

2400LT
1800LT

Basu et al. [JASTP 2002]

S4 Max altitude slice at various MLT in Solar min 2008-2009

S4 Max altitude slice at various MLT in Solar Max 2012-2013

Conversion of Scintillation S4 Experienced
on the GroundRemark 4
The most prominent signatures of the F3/C S4max in the E- (F-)region are in middle(equatorial-low) latitudes of the Summer Jmonth (equinox) months.
The F3/C S4 max in the E-region is mainly
contributed by the Es (sporadic-E) layer.
Neutral wind is essential!
The F3/C S4 max in the F-region lies between
20N and 20S and expends to higher latitudes inthe equinox and D months. E×B plasma
fountain is essential!

Thump the Ionosphere- magnetic storm- earthquake- solar eclipse

Storm the Ionosphere

Storm
Solar wind41

Vertical fluctuation profile

Altitude(km)Quiet time
Mother wavelet- Morlet

Altitude(km)Storm tme

TEC (TECu)

Wave number42

Sunward

0900 LT0300 LT
Dawn

30°

60°

Solar wind
NoonN

Midnight

Dusk
1500 LT2100 LT43

2010/05/02 TEC vertical fluctuation
Midnight side
MidHigh

BeforeLow

After

Magnitude

15km~30km
442010/05/02 TEC vertical fluctuation
Dawn side
MidHigh

BeforeLow

After

Magnitude

15km~30km
452010/05/02 TEC vertical fluctuation
Noon side
MidHigh

BeforeLow

After

Magnitude

15km~30km
462010/05/02 TEC vertical fluctuation
Dusk side
MidHigh

BeforeLow

After

Magnitude

15km~30km
479.0

Altitude (km)

~50km
~70km

Electron Density (#/cm3)
The electron density profile observed 22 minutes after earthquake.

Disturbances in F3/C electron density profiles
during the 11 March 2013 Tohoku earthquake
Table 1: Observation Points Near the Epicenter 0-8 hr after the Tohoku Earthquake

Location

Arrival(UT)

38.32°N, 142.37°E

05:46

153.28°N, 137.36°E

06:08

1320

1581

2196

249.83°N, 159.58°E

08:31

9900

2072

223

356.26°N, 158.19°E

08:33

10020

2394

239

445.98°N, 155.66°E

10:13

16020

1535

100

543.99°N, 151.39°E

10:23

16620

1067

67

660.28°N, 132.12°E13:41

27420

2425

87

7

51.86°N, 121.44°E

13:49

28980

2494

88

No.

*speed=Distance/(Travel-600)

Travel(second)Distance(km)Speed(m/sec)

EpicenterElectron density profiles observed by F3/C RO within 3000 km from the epicenter. The
black circle Indicates 3000km from the epicenter. The star and triangle symbols denotelocations of the epicenter and the profiles 1-8hours after the earthquake . The open
triangle symbols denote locations of the profiles 1-5 hours before the earthquake.

Altitude (km)Altitude (km)Altitude (km)frElectron Density (#/cm3)
The electron density profiles 1-5hours before the earthquake (top panels), and those
1-8 hours after (bottom panels).

Altitude(km)Altitude (km)Wave number (1/km)

Spectra derived by using HHT.

Power Density

BeforeAfterHHT

2010/01/15 Annual Solar Eclipse(Ring of Fire)

56

2010/01/15 Annual Solar Eclipse(Ring of Fire)(http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.html, NASA)

Eclipse period 05:18-08:55 UT
Observation zone: 5

Reference data point in each zone: 7/11/8/12/23

Day 1 Before

Eclipse Day 2010/01/15

Day 1 After

Power spectra on day 1 before, eclipse day 2010/01/15,
and day 1 after.

Remark 5
F7/C2 TriG RO sounding shall be a powerfultool observing disturbances of thelithosphere-ionosphere-solar wind coupling
triggered by earthquakes, tsunami, volcano
eruptions, typhoons, magnetic storms, solar
eclipses, etc.

FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2

FORMOSAT-3/COSMICFORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2

Exterior DesignSequence

1st Launch

2nd LaunchConstellation

666Mission Orbit
Altitude

800 km520-550 km

720-750 km

Inclination Angle

72°24-28.5°

72°

Mission Payload

GOXTriGRO Signals

GPSGPS, GLONASS, Galileo

Launch Schedule

Launched in 2006

2016

2018

• Descriptions are provided by NSPO (http://www.nspo.org.tw).
• F7/C2 is illustrated by Surrey Satellite Technology LTD.

F7/C2 vs F3/C
With 6 satellites + GPS, 60 minutes
About 80-100 profiles per hourWith 12 satellites + GPS, 60 minutes
About 400 profiles per hour

What is future impact of F7/C2
on ionospheric research?

Ionospheric Weather Monitoring
Solar activity variations
Seasonal variations
Monthly variations
Tidal effects
Diurnal variationsSemi-diurnal variations
Disturbed period effects
Other temporal variations
Irregularities
Latitudinal slices are at -120°, -60°, 0° 60° and 120° longitude with a interval of ±2.5°.

Could it be advanced by F7/C2 ?

Simulated F7/C2 observations at 08:00 UT within 1 hour x 1 day accumulation period

12 satellites,
28 GPS and
24 GLONAAA

Lee et al. [2013]

Ionospheric Data Assimilation
TIE-GCM + F3/C EDPs + DARTLee et al. [JGR 2013]

(F)

4%

8%%=

Ensemble − Truth× 100Truth

Shorted assimilation window

Lee et al. [JGR 2013]

The F7/C2 data latency might not be less than
15 minutes for operational assimilation.

Conclusion
FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 could reconstruct
3D electron density structures for ionosphericspace weather monitoring within a rather shortdata accumulation period.
F7/C2 comparing to F3/C could yield reliable
results within an assimilation window of lessthan 30 minutes.
F7/C2 shall have significant impacts on
ionospheric weather monitoring and researches.

Thank you

Thank you!!!
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