IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Possible longterm energy futures and impulses
for the energy transition in Germany
Impulse for the outreach session of the GJETC,
6th September, 2017
At IEEJ, TokyoIEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Global pathway to zero emissions:
Efficiency + Renewables
IEA Current Policy (CP) vs. Energy (r)evolution (E(R))

Source: DLR 201506.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017“Efficiency first” (IEA): Reduce losses of
the global energy system….
…by the “energy efficiency revolution” and decentralized power

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

US: Cost of utility efficiency programs(average: 2.8 cents per kWh)A factor of 50-75% less than levelized costs of new power supply

The “MEGAwatts“àßThe “NEGAwatts“

The high-end range of coal includes 90 percent carbon capture and ompression. PV stands for photovoltaics. IGCC stands for
integrated gesification combined cycle, a technology that converts coal into a synthesis gas and produces steam.
Source: ACEE 2014. Energy efficiency portfolio data from Molina 2014; all other data from Lazard 2013.
06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Cost reductions of key technologies
for decentralized supply and use of energy

Source: US Department of Energy 201606.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017“Revolutionary Targets” (Chancellor Merkel)
Energy Concept, Federal German Government, 09/2010

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Research consensus in Germany:The Energiewende is feasible and attractive!
à absolute decoupling of GDP (quality of life) and energy is possible

Source: Particular scenario studies and AG Energiebilanzen 201506.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Questions on different viewsin Germany and Japan:• Ambitious climate mitigation: cost or benefit for the economy?
• Costs of PV and wind power?
• More base load or more flexibility options?
• Perception of decentralisation and ownership?
• Potentials and policies on energy efficiency?
• Future role of incumbent power suppliers?
• Public acceptance of the energy transition?
• Perception of economic growth, lifestyles and sufficiency?

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Additional investments inclimate and resource protection –A core strategy to foster innovations and green growthInternational comparison of gross investment rates (1970-2006)ß Germany

Source: C. Jäger, PIK, 2009.
06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Astonishing global differences of PV costs (2015)= great cost reduction potential in Japan

Source: IRENA 201606.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Range of current green power costs in Germanyà in comparison to new nuclear and coal/CCS (UK)06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

The challenge: Gross electricity generationand fluctuating residual load in Germany
Forget base load – raise flexibility for security of supply!

One typical week in April 2022 with 50% renewables:

Source: Agora 201606.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Decarbonization technologies are decentralized:Ownership of installed renewables power in Germany 2010

Source: Greenpeace International 201306.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Citizen financed energy cooperatives
Status and development of an unexpected surprise!

••

Overall: 812 cooperatives have been foundedsince 2006•

with 165 000 citizens•

655 million Euro member‘s capital•

1,8 billion investments in renewable energies

Foundations ofenergy
cooperatives in theDGRV, cumulated,since 2006

Survey 2015: Slower development due to EEG-reform•In 2015 40 energy cooperatives have been founded. With that decreases the number of newlyestablished cooperatives by 25% compared to the previous year.

•Reasons: “Economic limits for new photovoltaic projects (...) with the introduction of atendering procedure a further impediment for “citizen-produced energy” has been
established” (Press release, DGRV annual survey 2015)

Source: Results of the DGRV annual survey 31.12.2015
06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017“Stadtwerke”- 72 new foundations (2005-2012)
Total amount in Germany: more than 1000!

25"• Between 2005 and2012 72 municipal
energy suppliers
have been
established

Stadtwerke"nach"Gründungsjahr"

21"

20"
Anzahl"der"Stadtwerke"• Trend towards acontinuous
foundation ofmunicipal energy
suppliers?
(„Stadtwerke“):n"="72"

15"

13"

15"

10"

10"

6"

7"

5"
0"
vor"2008"

in"2008"

in"2009"

in"2010"in"2011"in"2012"Source: Stadtwerke-Neugründungen und Rekommunalisierungen, Energieversorgung in kommunaler
Verantwortung; Kurt Berlo, Oliver Wagner; 201306.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Ranking list of new electricity providers (PPS)
by sales volumes in the household segment (April-Nov. 2016)
Sales volume

Share under PPS

Sector / Category

Tokyo Gas

1.057.522 MWh

31,8%

Gas

Osaka Gas

441.092 MWh

13,3%

Gas

KDDI

299.796 MWh

9,0%

Mobile communication

JX Energy271.114 MWh

8,2%

Oil

Saisan101.485 MWh

3,1%

Gas

Tokyu Power Supply

89.090 MWh

2,7%Railway company

K-opticom

72.872 MWh

2,2%

J:COM West71.515 MWh

2,2%

Cable television

Tonen General Sekiyu

55.697 MWh

1,7%

Oil

SB Power (Softbank)50.139 MWh

1,5%Mobile communication

Restliche Stromanbieter

812.680 MWh~24,5%-Subsidiary company of Kansai
EPCO

Source: Eigene Darstellung von Robin Goeßmann; Die Liberalisierung des japanischen Strommarktes nach dem Atomunfall vonFukushima/ Hintergründe, Auswirkungen/ Rahmenbedingungen; Masterarbeit 2017; Daten entnommen aus: METI (2017b: Internet)„After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, nearly 800 PPS companies filed documentation required by law, but only 135 have actually supplied
any electricity, and they held only about 9 percent of the market share at the end of fiscal 2015 (i.e., March 31, 2016)“.
Source: Japan For Sustainability”, No. 171, Nov. 2016); PPS = Power producer and supplier

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017“Life punishes those who come to late”(Mikhail Gorbachev)

In Germany:
The split of RWE and E.on “was just a matter of survival”!

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Different potentials
for the increase of energy productivity?
(2010-2013) in selected scenarios for Japan and Germany

Source: GJETC (ed.): Energy transition as a central building block of future industrial policy, 2017.
06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

State of the art: Buildings as power plants“Plus-energy-houses” in Freiburg/Germany

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Public opinion about the Energiewende
90%: important! But 50%: proceeds not well!

<- high support for decentralized options (PV/wind)

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Average electricity pricesà expensive: households/SME – cheap: industry

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Electricity prices and consumption- higher prices can be compensated by more efficient use!

ßß

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Growing GDP – constant life satisfaction!
A challenge for Germany and most OECD countries as well!

Life satisfaction and GDP in Japan240

GDP per capita ($)

220

Life satisfaction

200% change

180
160
140
120
100
80

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

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1990

1988

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1984

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1980

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1976

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1972

1970

60

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Thank you for your attention!
Publication: Sonnenschein/Hennicke (2015): The German Energiewende, Lund.
Available under www.wupperinst.org/info/details/wi/a/ad/3319/

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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IEEJ：September 2017 © IEEJ2017

06.09.2017

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

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Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp