IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy Efficiency Today:
IEA’s 2015 Market Report
IEEJ, Tokyo, October 6, 2015
Philippe Benoit,Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment DivisionInternational Energy Agency© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy efficiency: the ‘first fuel’ Savings from efficiency 60% of TFC in 2014
4 000
3 500

Mtoe

3 000

TFC and savings within IEA countries (IEA-11*) from EE investments since 1973

Hypothetical energy
use had there beenno energy efficiency
improvements

Energyefficiencysavings
Oil2 500Gas

2 000
1 500
1 000

Coal

Total Final
Consumption

500

Electricity

0*IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy efficiency investment:
bigger than you might think

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Investments in various fuels

400350300
USD Billion

250200
150

310

270

290

950

100500

Energy efficiency*

Renewable power** Fossil fired power*** Upstream oil, gas andcoal***** IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. ** IEA (2015), Renewable Energy Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA.
*** Frankfurt School-UNEP Center (2015), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, Frankfurt: Frankfurt School of Management, UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
**** IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, Paris: OECD/IEA.
© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy efficiency investment:
bigger than you might think

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Investments in various fuels

400
350
300
USD Billion

250
200
150

310

270

290950100500

Energy efficiency*Renewable power** Fossil fired power*** Upstream oil, gas andcoal***** IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. ** IEA (2015), Renewable Energy Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA.
*** Frankfurt School-UNEP Center (2015), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, Frankfurt: Frankfurt School of Management, UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
**** IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, Paris: OECD/IEA.
© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy intensity in OECD countries
improved in 2014

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 Energy intensity in OECD countries declined by 2.3% in 2014Percentage change in energy consumption per unit of GDP (2005 USD PPP)

Annual change in energy intensity

0.0%
-0.5%
OECD-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%

SE4All target

World-3.5%
-4.0%

2011

2012

2013

2014

Within range of the 2.6% per annum SE4ALL target in 2014
© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy efficiency is flattening
energy consumption

 Total final consumption peaked in 2004 in IEA countries
140%

Decomposition of Total Final Consumption in IEA countries1, 1990-2014

Activity130%effect120%

TFC110%Structure effect100%90%Efficienc
y effect

80%70%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Energy efficiency is responsible for two thirdsof the shift in demand
1 Decomposition for Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

© OECD/IEA 2015

Avoided consumption topped 22 EJ(520 Mtoe) in 2014

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 Avoided consumption generated by energy efficiency increasedby 10% in 2014
Avoided TFC in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990

2410%

20EJ

16

Avoided12consumption

8401990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

IEA countries avoided more consumption in 2014 than the TFC
of Japan and Korea combined© OECD/IEA 2015

IEA consumers are saving hundredsof billions of dollars each year

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

 IEA countries saved USD 550 billion in 2014 as a result of energy
efficiency investments since 1990
600

Avoided expenditure in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990

USD billion (2014)

500400300
200100

Cumulativesavings= USD 5.7 trillion

01990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Annual savings are greater than the EU’s fuel import bill© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Supply vs ‘virtual supply’:
Energy efficiency’s contribution

TFC in 2014 in IEA countries with and without avoided consumption from efficiency investments since 1990

Other
8 EJ

Other

Coal

8 EJ

5 EJ

Electricity

Electricity
Oil
30 EJ

consumption
22 EJ Coal

32 EJ

32 EJ
Natural gas

Avoided

67 EJ

5 EJ

Natural gas
30 EJOil67 EJ

Reported TFC (140 EJ)

EE-adjusted TFC (162 EJ)

Energy efficiency’s contribution to meeting energy service demandis invisible in traditional charts© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

EE’s virtual supply generated in
all IEA countries© OECD/IEA 2015

From avoided end-use consumption
to primary energy savings

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 In 2014, avoided total primary energy supply generated byenergy efficiency was 32 EJ (765 Mtoe)
35Avoided TFC and TPES in 2014 in IEA countries from efficiency investments made since 1990

Electricity30

Nuclear25

Renewable
Natural gas

EJ20

Coal15

OilHeat1050
Avoided TFC

Avoided TPES (electricity)

Avoided TPES
© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Efficiency’s domestic production
substitutes for fuel imports

 In 2014, IEA countries avoided primary energy imports totalling 190 Mtoe,
saving USD 80 billion in energy import bills and improving trade balances(Mtoe) Avoided imports in 2014, as a result of energy efficiency investments in IEA countries since 199060353050

USD billion (2014)

25402030

15201010500GermanyJapanUKFranceUS

NaturalGas

Oil

Coal

Import bill(rightaxis)

Domestically produced, efficiency supports energy security© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

A clean energy source, efficiency
reduces emissions

 Energy efficiency investments since 1990 have helped to reduce
IEA country emissions to below 1996 levels
 Without energy efficiency investments, estimated IEA member
country emissions would have been 870 Mt CO2 higher in 2014

IEA emissions from fossil fuel combustion and emissions savings from energy efficiency investments since 1990
(GtCO2)

13.0

Cumulative savings= 10.2 GtCO2

Emissionssavings

12.0
11.0
10.0

Emissions1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Energy efficiency has helped to make the 2 degrees target moreachievable by lowering emissions to date

© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy Efficiency in Buildings:
Nearly a USD 100 billion market

 Energy Efficiency investment inbuildings* estimated at USD 90billion with 2/3 in the US, Chinaand Germany In the US, and elsewhere,building efficiency investments
are growing faster than totalbuildings investments

100Buildings efficiency investments, 2014

90USD billions

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

807060504030
201002014

USChina

GermanyOther Current trends point to USD 120 billion by 2020
 But investment projections fall far short of estimated annual
USD 215 billion needed to achieve the 2-Degree Scenario*Includes insulation, HVAC systems, etc. but excludes appliances© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy Efficiency: flattening electricityconsumption in IEA countries

 Electricity consumption in IEA countries declined by 2% since 2010;
without efficiency, electricity consumption would still be growing Energy efficiency has enabled businesses and households to meet theirenergy service demands with 2 200 fewer TWh of generation
Electricity consumption in IEA member countries and energy efficiency savings (from investments since 1990)
4.0%

CAGR

3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%

-1.0%

Electricity consumption growth in IEA

2 500

Electricity savings from efficiency

2 000TWh5.0%

1 500
1 0005000 Low growth is pushing various energy utilities to shift from traditional
generation to sale of energy efficiency services
 Energy efficiency is facilitating the achievement of renewables targets bydecreasing the amount of additional GWh required© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Maintaining momentum in a low
oil price environment

 Strong policy drivers to insulate EE investments:• The EU Energy Efficiency Directive, the US Clean Power Plan
• INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC should all drive investment• Consumption subsidies have been cut in various jurisdictions dampening
drop in consumer prices
 Uneven short-term impacts on demand
Indices of new US LDV fuel economy performance, CAFE standard and unleaded gasoline prices
1.4

Measuredfleet fuelefficiency

2008 Q1 = 1

1.2

Gasoline
price

10.8

CAFEstandard

0.6
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Continued low oil prices could ultimately weaken support© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

ThemeEnergy exporters

Sub-nationalgovernment

Market Profiles highlight the diversityof energy efficiency markets
RegionFindingsSaudi Arabia

Energy exporters increasinglyefficiency to boost export volumes

RussiaSeoul

MassachusettsCities and sub-national governments major
enablers of energy efficiency markets
Eager to capitalize on multiple benefits of energy
efficiency

MexicoBrazil

IEA MembertoTokyo

Paris

Latin America

looking

Energy efficiency an important supporter ofvarious economic and social development
objectives

United Kingdom Using efficiency to adjust to net-energy importerstatus© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

In Saudi Arabia, energy efficiency ishelping to increase export revenues

 Domestic energy consumption has nearly doubled since 2000
reducing share of energy production going to exports
 Saudi Arabia has implemented efficiency standards on key sourcesof domestic energy demand including vehicles and air conditioners :Saudi Arabia - Domestic energy consumption as share of total production: 2000-2013
35%
30%

Domesticenergy
consumption as shareofproduction

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

20002013

Air conditioner standards alone are targeted to improve efficiency by
35%: this would save 47 million barrels of oil, which could increase
export revenues by around USD 2.4 billion© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Tokyo: an energy efficiency star
 Tokyo addressing broad range of sectors (transport, buildings) with broad
range of instruments (regulations, cap&trade) Cap & Trade has enabled targeted commercial buildings to reduce energy
consumption by 7% since 2010
 Additional measures targeting residential buildings have helped decreaseenergy intensity by 7% over the 2005-2013 period Markets are responding: mixed housing
and transport development creating
systemic efficiency improvements• High-density, transit connected housingdevelopments improving building
efficiency and using low energy transitmodes• Tokyo’s rail system added 4.9 billion pkm
between 2004-09 while total transportenergy use down 35% between 2002 and2012

http://www.japan-guide.com/blog/schauwecker/g/121009_outside_04.jpg© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Seoul: Using efficiency toreduce generation needs

 Seoul has adopted “One-Less
Nuclear Plant” plan to reduceenergy consumption equivalent of
one nuclear plant (2 Mtoe)
http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pe/2013/10/

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ Plan has retrofit 2 267 buildings –enabled market with low interest
financing of up to USD 2 million perproject Seoul’s lighting plan to go 100% LED
replacing 2.2 million security andstreet lights© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Thank you

Available as of Oct 8th to download for free at:
http://www.iea.org/bookshop/709-Energy_Efficiency_Market_Report_2015
Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp© OECD/IEA 2015