GAME-T and the Future
Hydro-MeteorologicalResearch in Thailand

Research Inst. for Humanity and Nature
http://www.chikyu.ac.jp

IIS, University of Tokyo

Taikan Oki

UNESCO/IHP Water resources Survey
In Humid Tropic (1989-1993)

Prof. Musiake visited all over Thailand.

•WCRP/GEWEX was planned, and called
participation from the world. (1987-)•Corresponding project in Asia was consideredin Japan (1990-)

GEWEX• The Global Energy and Water Cycle
Experiment is a program initiated by theWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
to observe, understand and model thehydrological cycle and energy fluxes in theatmosphere, at land surface and in the upperoceans. GEWEX is an integrated program ofresearch, observations, and science activities
ultimately leading to the prediction of global
and regional climate change.
• http://www.gewex.org/

Objectives• Determine the hydrological cycle and energy
fluxes by means of global measurements ofatmospheric and surface properties.
• Model the global hydrological cycle and its impact
on the atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces.
• Develop the ability to predict the variations ofglobal and regional hydrological processes andwater resources, and their response toenvironmental change.
• Advance the development of observing
techniques, data management, and assimiliation
systems for operational application to long-range
weather forecasts, hydrology, and climate
predictions.

• GEWEX HYDROMETEOROLOGYPANEL (GHP)
http://www.usask.ca/geography/MAGS/GHP/ghp.html• Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs)GAME• As a part of the Global Energy and Water cycle
EXperiment (GEWEX), the GEWEX Asian
Monsoon Experiment (GAME) is being
implemented to understand the role of the Asianmonsoon in the global energy and water cycle
and to improve the simulation and seasonal
prediction of Asian monsoon patterns andregional water resources.
http://www.ihas.nagoya-u.ac.jp/game/index.html

Why do we need meteorologicalforecasting for water resources?
TLH > TD + TC + TU
• TLH : leading time by hydrological forecast• TD : time for data collection• TC : time for calculating forecast• TU : time for utilization of the forecast
TLH < Propagation/Travel Time of Water
Î TLH + TLM > TD + TC + TU
• TLM : leading time by meteorological forecast

How much time do we need toutilize the forecast information?
TLH > TD + TC + TU
• for storm drainage in cities: 30 minutes?
• for flash flood warning: 3 hours?
– ÆNowcast• for reservoir operation for flood: 24 hours?
– ÆWeather forecast• for reservoir operation for drought: 3 months?
– ÆSeasonal forecast• for planning of infrastructure: 30 years?
– ÆClimate simulation considering global warming

GAME-T Workshop in Thailand (Bangkok, 1998)Recent Achievement [1]• CD-ROM published– Complete‘Snapshot’ ofGAME-T databaseat June 2002.
– Contains more then8000 files (620MB)– Please take one!

GAME-T Dataset

Routine Obs. Stations

Recent Achievement [2]• New DB Server
was installed in
NRCT, Thailand– Maintained by
NRCT’s staff– Contents are thesame as that ofUniv. of Tokyo’sServer (rsync)

http://game-t.nrct.go.th/GAME-T/

Discussions for GAME-T2• GAME-T Workshop in Petchaburi (Mar. 2000)• GISP in Tokyo (June 2000)• Omkoi meeting (August 2000)• GAME-T Workshop in Phuket (March 2001)• GAME Conference in Nagoya (October 2001)• GAME-T Workshop in Chiang Rai (Oct. 2002)• …. and other domestic meetings

GAME-T2• Program-project framework (multi-funding)from a few countries will be implemented.
– Japan: MEXT/RIHN, JST/CREST, JAMSTEC,NASDA, JICA, Thai: MOAC, NRTC, USA: NSF…

• Related programs:– CEOP (IGOS)– GLASS, GCSS, WRAP (GEWEX)– WWDR, WWAP, HELP, IHP, PUBs(UNESCO)– IGBP?

• Time frame:– ITP 2 years, Apr 2002-Mar 2004 (GAME-2)– + 3 years, Apr 2005-Mar 2008 (GAME is over)Scientific Objectives of GAME-T2• Promote hydrometeorological science inTropical Southeast Asia
– Numerical modelings– Satellite data assimilations– Data sharing and communications• Social application of the latest scientificachievements– Advanced hydrometeorological monitorings– Comprehensive water resources assessments– Integrated water resources management

Continuation from GAME-T• GAME-T Workshop once a year
• Flux measurements at: Kog-Ma, Pan Khum
Watershed, SiSamrong, Shkhothai paddy field,
teak forest, cassava, and EGAT tower• Raingauge network in MaeCham river basin• Radar observations• Radiometers• GPS stations• Royal Projects and new Thai project• AVHRR & MODIS data receiving• +CEOP rawinsonde & wind profiler

Research Topics [I]• Comprehensive study on the decrease ofdischarge in the Chao Phraya river basin• Impact of rainmaking on regionalhydrological cycles• Irrigation control/integrated water
resources management• Seasonal forecasting of
Asian Monsoon rainfall• Future projection on the water demand

: Annual Rainfall (average of 9 rainfall stations): Annual Evapotranspiration: Annual Runoff at Nakhon Sawan (C2)
1919

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

1998

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

62

60

200

19250
Pasak Dam (1999)

Mae Song Dam (1996)

Mae Kuang Dam (1993)

Naresuan Dam (1985)
Mae Ngat Dam (1985)

Ku Lom Dam (1981)

Sirikit Dam (1972)

Bhumipol Dam (1964)

Chao Phraya Dam (1957)

30058

56

54

350

191919Annual Runoff (mm)
500-

450
500

400
1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

150
3,500

100
4,000

50
4,500

5,000

Annual Rainfall, Annual Evapotranspiration (mm)19191919

19

19

1919

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

1919

1919

19

1998

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

7270

6866

6462

60

585654

Water Balance in Chao Phraya River BasinWater withdrawals by each sector in Chao Phraya River Basin
mm km3126.6 20.0

Distribution of water withdrawals
in 19874%
6%95.0 15.0
63.3 10.0
31.7 5.01965

1980

1995

2010

2025

90%

2040

Population
Populationprojections
projections

8060

Source : WRI, 1998

: Agricultural: Industrial: Domestic

Thailand
Chao Phraya

402020502040

2030202020
102000

1990

1970

1960

195001980

0.0
1950

people (millions)

0.0

Present (2001)

Source : UN, 1998, World Population Prospects

Research Topics [II]• Flood forecasting– Telemetry, telecommunication andhydrological modeling– Typhoon and tropical cyclones– ENSO effect– Torrential rainfall, ex., Hay Yai in every 12 years?
– Urbanization and deforestation– Associated with global changeRainfall Anomaly Prediction

12 months ahead

3 areas-SST

Predicted Rainfall Anomaly (12 months-ahead)rainfall anomaly (mm/month)

500

CASE 1, Bias=3.3 mm/ EI=55.3%
CASE 2, Bias=1.8 mm/ EI=76.4 %CASE 3, Bias=1.7 mm/ EI=91.5 %Observed

400
300

Case 1:1
Train (1962-1979, 18 yrs),
Test (1980-1999, 20 yrs)

200Case 2:
Train (1962-1989, 28 yrs),
Test (1990-1999, 10 yrs)

1000-100

1996-200396408

1997
4201998432

444456

Case 3:Train (1962-1994, 33 yrs),
Test (1995-1999, 5 yrs)

month
Predicted Rainfall (12 months ahead)

Observed and Predicted Rainfall (12 months ahead)Predicted

Training

500

Observed

600

Testing

500

Observed Rainfall(mm/month)

Rainfall (mm/month)

600

400

400

300

300
200200100

100-125497397 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361 385

month-100200300

400

Predicted Rainfall (mm/month)

500

600

Rainfall Prediction
500400Predicted rainfall for 12 months ahead (Testing)

Case 2:Train (1962-1989, 28 yrs),
Test (1990-1999, 10 yrs)

Predicted Rainfall
Observed Rainfall

Large Error

Drought

300
20010001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Observed Rainfall (mm/month)

Rainfall (mm/month)

600

600
500

51
r=orr
E
etgraT

400
300
200

Bad Pattern-400

Train (1962-1994, 33 yrs),
Test (1995-1999, 5 yrs)

PredictedObserved

Smaller Error

300
20010001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year

Observed Rainfall (mm/month)

Rainfall (mm/month)500

100200

300

400

500

600

Predicted Rainfall (mm/month)

Predicted rainfall for 12 months ahead (Testing)

Case 3:%

100

Year

600

3 areas-SST

12 months ahead

600
500

51r=orr
Eetgr
Ta

400
300
200%

100

Bad Pattern-100200

300

400

500

Predicted Rainfall (mm/month)600

Recommendations (1)• Capacity building in scientific research isone of the most important aspects of theproject. More opportunities should be givenfor not too old (young) researchers in Thai,
Japan, and other participating countries;
opportunities such as exchange scholar,visiting program, participation to scientificconferences, and field survey.
• The formation of a new research groupconsists of not too old (young) scholars in
Thailand with strong leadership is required.

Recommendations (2)• Further exchange of data and sharing
information & idea should be promoted.
• Publication of a textbook summarizing thelatest knowledge about the hydroclimatology in the South-East Asia willcontribute for it.
• Existing facilities, such as GAME-T or
monsoon study related mailing list both inThai and Japan, should be utilized wisely.

Recommendations (3)• Application of the latest scientific knowledge
to human dimension should be encouraged.
• One possible target could be the investigationof the “Scientific Basis for Hydrometeorological Warning System” in short,medium, and long ranges for flood anddrought management with the basic
understanding of Asian Monsoon Systemand the latest technology of monitoring andmodeling.

Summary• GAME-T Database is there:

http://game-t.nrct.go.th/GAME-T/• How to utilize the data should be
described through this seminar:– theory– observation and data
– analysis and phenomena– modeling and prediction• New research opportunities under
GAME-Tropics/Phase II!

THANK YOU!