From forces of nature
to design loads

Em. Prof. J.K. Vrijling, Former chairman of Dutch Soc. of Civil Engin
February 13, 2015
1

Hydraulic Engineering Department

Contents••••••

Introduction
From forces of nature to design loads
History of flood defence in Netherlands
Building on fault lines
Some ideas for tsunami defence
Discussion

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Introduction• Tradition of scientific exchange since 1640

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3

Hierarchy of needs according Maslow

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Expected value and standard
deviation of income
1

expected valueE( T )
 ( T)

st. deviation020
2February 13, 2015

4060
T80

100
100
5

Fulfillment of first two needs• Design and construction of housing, roads, canals,bridges, drainage, irrigation,• Enhance income, reduce costs• Prevent destruction by extreme forces of nature• Increase stability, safety

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6

From forces of nature to design loads• Major choice or development• Relief centered approach• Rescue people and live stock• Accept economic damage• Prevention centered approach• Reduce the probability of flooding• Protect people and property

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7

Economically acceptable risk;
1 1097.5 1085 108

2.5 108109910

kostenPVRisk( H)
I( H )

acceptable 1/10.000 to 1/30.000 year

TC ( H)52.752100

4.5

5.25

64.5

H
428 oktober 2008

6.75

0
7.5
7.1

8
dijkhoogte

8From forces of nature to design loads• Analyse the situation• Probability of• Wind velocity• Storm surge• River discharge• Precipitation• Earthquake• Coincidence of phenomena
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9

From forces of nature to design loads• Preventive approach consists of• Physical system• NATURAL SYSTEM• HUMAN INTERVENTIONS• Social system• ADMINISTRATORS• EXPERTS• USERS
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From forces of nature to design loads
Observation and data collection

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From forces of nature to design loads
Statistical analysis

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Living below mean sea level

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Dike rings

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Damming estuaries, shortening the coastline

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Many instances:• 1270• 1240• 1248• ~ 1300• ~ 1300• 1258February 13, 2015

AmsterRotterSpaarnZwammer
Monnicken
E
Alblasser
Schie

dam
dam
dam
dam
damdamdamdam16

Main recent flood events

1675

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1682

1916

1953

1717

After 1916, theEnclosure dam

Creation ofIJssel Lakeand polders

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18

After 1953, the Delta plan;
shortening the coastline• Dikes and barriers

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1919

Building on fault lines

Fig. 7.2: Geographic distribution of earthquake epicenters, recorded
between
27/11/2001 and 27/11/2002.

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From forces of nature to design loads
number of earthquakes N in zone j
100area:  50, 000 km2
period: 1 year

10
1
0.1
0.01
1February 13, 2015

234

56

7
magnitude M
21

From forces of nature to design loads
Nonlinear dynamic analysis is, at present, the most elaborate method available for theassessment of the seismic behaviour of building structures.
Input:
Unit peak ground acceleration

System: MDOF (Te )

Output:Maximum relative displacement
max(u(t))
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Design of earthquake resistantstructures

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Taipeh• Tuned mass damper

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Great Hanshin earthquake in Kobe
1995

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Portopia hotel• Survived Hansjin
earthquake

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Floods in less developed countries• Myanmar 2008
• Pakistan 2010
• Vietnam 2010

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29

Relief centered approach

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From forces of nature to design loads• Major choice for Vietnam• Relief centered approach• Rescue people and live stock• Accept economic damage• Prevention centered approach• Reduce the probability of flooding• Protect people and property

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From forces of nature to design loads• For Japan prevention centered approach• and formulate the aims
• Tsunami/flood safety• Facilitate shipping• Facilitate recreation• Nature conservancy

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Tsunami defence in Japan• Some rough sketches for discussion• 1 system design• 2 wall or dike design• Circular problem:• wall -> higher water level -> higher wall
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Tsunami defence in Japanone wall/dikemore walls

wall + ditch
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Multi-functional tsunami walls
housesoffices
SSL

shops

SWL

restaurants/cafes
city parkpromenadetraffic roadparking

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Multi-functional tsunami walls
housespromenadeshops

promenadeSSL

parking
SWL

traffic road

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Tsunami defence in Japan• Purely statistical approach of tsunami height isimpossible due to large variation in coastal form
• Statistical approach supplemented by physical models
is the only way (Suo Nada Bay example,ICCE 2006)

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Tsunami defence in Japan; loads• Plate tectonics• position of the slip
• heading of the slip (relative to north)• direction of slip (vertical or horizontal or both)• Tsunami generation at sea• Tsunami propagation to the coast and into the bays
Honshu IslandKanmon
Strait
10m
40m

20m
30m

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38

Port ofKanda
50m

60m

Kyushu Island

Result : generated tsunami statistic
MLE Lognormnal distribution for total water level010

Computed data
Lognormal (1.3064; 0.12431)
Lognormal 95% parameter estimates-1

Exceedance probability [1/year]

10-210-310-4

10-5

1001234567

deltah [m]February 13, 201539

Economically acceptable risk;
1 1097.5 1085 108

2.5 10810

9910

kostenPVRisk( H)
I( H )

acceptable

TC ( H)5

2.752100

4.5

5.25

64.5

H
428 oktober 2008

6.75

0
7.5
7.1

8
dijkhoogte

40Tokyo Bay

Challenge the future41
41

Improving the levees or closing the bay

current level of protection 1/100 year
Many coastal dikes and port areas
would need to be upgradedFebruary 13, 201542

Closing the bay

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Closing the bay: dam and barrier• Length: 7km Depth: 80m• 50% dam; 50% barrier• Challenges:• Typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis
Functions:• Reduce surge• Allow navigation• Allow tidal exchange

Conclusions
From forces of nature to design loads• Part of the way to prosperity• Prevention needs engineering and social organisation• Relief needs social organisation and accepts economic
losses• Risk increases faster due to economic development
than due to climate change
February 13, 201545