Role of Science and Technology
towards Future Safety

Shim, Jaehyun
Director
Disaster Prevention Research Division

National Disaster Management InstituteChanges in Disaster Safety Situation
Global climate changes and Korean peninsula climate change
Temperature

Rainfall

1.7 ℃ increase

5.6 ℃ increase

18.7% increase

20.7% increase

If the rate of greenhousegas emission will be same infutureIf the rate of greenhousegas emission will be same infuture1908 ~ 19401970 ~ 2000

2070 ~ 2099

1901 ~ 1910

1970 ~ 2000

2070 ~ 2099

(NIMR, 2011.11)

Globalization, Industrialization, Aging safety vulnerability growing○ Diffusion of large scale epidemic and animal infection* Novel swine('09.11), foot and mouse disease('10.11)○ New disaster due to industrialization and urbanization* Gumi hydro fluoric acid('12.9), Busan Haewoondae apart fire('10.10)○ New social problem on disaster handicapped person* Old person traffic casualties : (‘08) 1,735 → (‘12) 1,846

2

Radical trends, Wide regions of Disaster

EconomyFood
Finance

Dwelling

energyEpidemiology

Cold surge
wave

Heavy
Evapo
rationTemperature
rain

Land
animalflood

glaciertationHeat
Drought
wave
Wild
Wild fire``
fire
Heavy Typhoonsnow

Fishery

storm Precipi
traffic

SafetyHeatemission

Disaster
atmosphere

Plant

Culture3

Code Green : Hot, Flat, andCrowded
1. Gradually more
scarce in energy supply,
more increase in natural resource demand
2. Vast riches to oil power nations and oil dictator
3. Destructive climate change by green-house gas
4. Owner Vs. Non-owner in electricity : Energy poverty
5. Extinction of various animals and plants: Decrease of biological diversity
1. Affluenza : Affluence + Influenza , Too many people in USA
2. Al-Qaeda, Strengthening Code Red, Anti-democratic moves in Middle Asia
3. Intensification of climate change and disasters, temporal andspatial imbalance in food and land
4. Africa and Southeast Asia : China and India
5. New Noah’s ark : Sign of future risk

Grid Lock Economy
1. Difficulty with making new drugs: trouble with patent rights

2. Empty stores and exploding street stalls
in Moscow
3. Mobile communications in Korea and USA
4. Original Thief : Noble of Rheine river
5. BIG INCH : 2100 millions quaker-oats in 1950
6. Patents of IBM

 25 new runways would eliminate most air travel delays in
America. Why can’t we build them?
 50 patent owners are blocking a major drug maker from cre
ating a cancer cure. Why won’t they get out of the way?
 90% of our broadcast spectrum sits idle while American cell phone service lags far behind Japan’s and Korea’s. W
hy are we wasting our airwaves?

Perspectives on Disaster

Disaster = Dis(Bad) + Aster(Luck)
Acts of God, but Unnatural
Acts of Human, so UnpredictableDisaster management administration
vs. general administration
Efficiency based• Small government with a focus on efficiency• No systematic error↕
Redundancy based• Supplementary to an imperfect system• For the unexpected and uncontrollable world

New Disaster Management Paradigm
Openness

Sharing

Disaster Information
Service

Value added disaster information
Consumer centered service
Disaster administration feedback

Information sharing

Disastermanagement 3.0
Disaster and researchIntegrated disaster management
Efficient disaster management

Communication
Two way communication

Cooperation
Cooperative Public-private disastermanagement

Mutual Cooperation

Consumer centered service
Citizen participated management
Field centered management
Quick management

Disaster safety nation

Disaster safety infra expansion
Private disaster safety capability
Disaster safety industry activation

8

Case study on large-scale disasters
Background : a presidential initiative•

To rewrite a national disaster response plan including media
response, organization of response team, on-site rescue, etc
based on in-depth analysis of root causes of past disasters.

Research target: 276 disaster events happened over last 50 years (1964-2013)
with more than 10 casualties
Category: ① natural disasters ② maritime disasters ③ chemical disasters④ aviation accident ⑤ large fire ⑥ building collapse⑦ nuclear plant accidents ⑧ large traffic accidents
Methodology: Analysis on problems and respond plans according
to the four stages; preparedness, prevention, response and recovery

9Lessons Learned the Hard Way (1)Crisis starts with small omen
Communication failure is a risk factor in every disaster
Never short-change planning and preparedness
Economic pressure can play a rolein ineffective preparedness for natural disasterNot following procedure is
a common catalyst for man-made accident
Design and construction flaws are the bane of man-madeaccident
Operational Risk Management, Mark D. Abkowitz, 200810

Lessons Learned the Hard Way (2)Do not underestimate
the significance of political agendas
Arrogance among the experts isperhaps a far more significant risk factor
Disaster policy not considering the characteristics
of local community , that is disaster
Regardless of how well risks are being addressed,“Luck”can change your fortunes one way or another
It usually takes a disastrous event toconvince people that something must be done
Not prevent disaster, but reduce disaster

Operational Risk Management, Mark D. Abkowitz, 2008
11

The way ahead
Preparedness• Regulations in two-tracks
Strengthening
Safety regulation

Safe Korea
Advancedcountry

Regulation
policyRelaxing
economic policy

Well-being Korea• Development of the Korean model of grassroots safety culture– Education on disaster and safety issues for the whole life cycle※ U.S. Grassroots Safety Leadership program

12

The way ahead
Response•

Redefining Role of central and local disaster and safety countermeasurement headquarters (establishment of a new ministry of national
security)– To improve capacity of local governments on disaster response anddeploy experts in provinces– To form expert groups and spokespersons in the central emergency
management agency※ (Taiwan) Experts group at NCDR, (USA) special spokesperson system at CDC•

Development of real-time based disaster response system with ICT※ Real-time images and locations can be sent through SBB(Smart Big Board)

13

The way ahead
Recovery• Application of TCS(Total Care System)– From a onset of disasters to a return to normality, TCS supports theaffected in various aspects including phycology, health, education, andeconomy※ (Japan) Manual on healing mind, (USA) the 9·11 survivors health assistance program• Improvement of supportive measures for the victims
and the bereaved families– Private shelter will be provided to secure privacy of the families.
Korea

Japan

14

The way ahead
Evaluation and feedback•

Continuous evaluation– Through DSI, post-disaster monitoring system will be established.
On-siteinspection

Analysis ofcauses※Datacollection

Monitoring

Present

Evaluation

Future– Pan-government disaster and safety data collection and management
system will be developed and operated•

Enhanced efficiency of disaster and safety budget- Disaster and safety will be added as a category in the national scienceand technology classification system.
- Disaster and safety-related budget will be coordinated first at a newministry※ About 700 billion won is expected to be saved.
15

Concept of future disaster response
Operability in the field: strengthening field response capability
in the public and local government
自助 : Survivability in disaster (education/training)
互助 : Capability to help the next person (education/training)

公助 :Customized rescue, Support, Golden time(field response capability)

16

Concept of the operation of Disaster expert
Disaster management+with overall administration

Professionalism in series of classof disaster prevention & safety

Poor professionalism Vs Expert without administration
Administrative expert Vs Professional administrator(Price, Kearney)
Limit on cycling position: administrative expert, chance of promotion
Regular education-training and research service,
Appropriate operation of contract officer

17

Future Disaster Management Paradigm• Strengthening pre-preventive policy and budget
in central government• Strengthening the capability ofoverall control in different departments• Early settlement of the series ofclass in disaster-safety• Strengthening the capability ofdisaster response in local government• Anticipative use ofdisaster management fund and special subsidy

Strengthening of
the response
capability on
community
involvement

Role allocation incentral andlocal government• Institutionalization of community
involvement in disaster management
policy making• Security on the power of the
explanation in alternatives based on
PUS for disaster management• Life-Cycle training on various disasters• Open the information of disaster risk
map and situation in real time

• Establishment of pre-preventive
response system forStrengthening of
future complex disasters
the capability• Removal of blind spot on
on practical-scientific disaster management facilities
research• Development of real-time
response technology based on
IT & GIS• Reflux system and D냐
• Development of the contents
of education-training
by the request of consumer

R&D on emergency management :Goals and Strategic plans
VisionCore
Value

Priorities
For
Research

Strategicplans

Preemptive
response technology

Improvementof disaster
forecasttechnology

Improvementof disasterwarningtechnology

Preemptive
response to
the changing
environment

Customized
public service

Improvementof disaster
response
systemThe Fieldand actionoriented
R&D

Scientification of disasterrecoverysystemIncreasing
investment
and Improving
infrastructure

Sustainable safety

Improvementof disasterprevention
polity andguidelines

Customized
disaster andsafetyserviceCo-research with
int’l research
institutions

Green technology

Procurementof disaster
responseequipment
and supplies

Increasing
connectivity
between related
technology at thedifferent
governmental
agencies

Building aculture ofsafe society

Developmentof efficient
process19

R&D on emergency management :Goals and Strategic plans

To reduce the national cost of disasters by 10%
To keep up with disaster prevention technology of
the advanced countries
To promote VIP-8
To enhance satisfaction of public
on disaster and safety service
To increases investment
in emergency management R&D by 500%

20

Value Improvement Project – 8
Improvement of disaster forecast technology

1

2

Improvement of disaster warning technology

3 Improvement of disaster response system

VIP-8
6
7
8

4

Scientification ofdisaster recovery system

5

Improvement of disaster prevention
policy and guidelines
Customized disaster and safety service

Procurement of high-tech disaster response
equipment and supplies

Building a culture of safe society

21

VIP-1
Contents

Brand

Advanced Disaster Prediction Technology- Pre-sensing techniques and sensor development for disaster precursor- Disaster vulnerability assessment technologies for climate change
scenarios- Development of disaster precursor information system frompast and present

Disaster precursor
information system

Intelligent CCTV system• Disaster precursor
monitoring through internet• Precursor Mining Technology
and disaster type trend
prediction system• Disaster type auto vision
recognition and detection
algorithms• Intelligent disaster sensing
system and guidelines
development

Development disasterprecursor monitoring sensor• Complex sensor sensing materials andsensor design• Complex chip sensor and risk
precursor information
measurement system• Disaster type cheap complex
sensing sensor development※ example
22

VIP-2 Advancement of Disaster Alert Techniques
Contents- Flood warning system for evacuation- Link and Integrate system for disaster warning

Brand- Step ahead of the next-generation disaster response alert technology

Flash flood warning system

Slope land alert system

Tsunami warning system• Using KMA forecast data
• Extract flash flood area
• A system for predicting
2 hours before andresponding for flood risk

• Slope land evacuation alarms
and emergency response
system• Review the alert guideline bypilot test

• Making flood risk map by
scenario• Settlement the resident's
evacuation district in case of
a tsunamiVIP-3 Efficient Disaster Response system
Contents- Development of disaster response techniques for mitigation- Development of fire detection and safety management techniques

Brand- Development of Multi-use-facility disaster response techniques basedon UBIQUITOUS

Urban flood
prevention system• Urban flood inundation
analysis system• Development the flood risk
map based on scenario andflood vulnerability index• Development of childeducation program• Urban flood action procedureof residents

USN fire detect system• Development of smart fire
detect mobile network by USN• Technical standards andstandardization for fire
management system by IT

Wallpaper for earthquake
and landslide deterrence• preventing the collapse of
the wall with a simple
installation• Development of strength,elasticity, excellent vibration
absorption wallpaper

VIP-4 Scientific Disaster Response System
Contents- Improvement of disaster recovery system and development of
psychological support program for victims- Deveoloping scientific disaster profiling technology

Brand- Development of trusted Scientific Disaster Profiling Technology

Automatic disaster damage
assessment technique• Objective damage calculation
using the optical camera andsatellite disaster• GIS-based portable damage
survey system

Music therapy for
psychological stabbility• Brain Music Therapy
technique utilizing themechanism of neural feedback• Treatment to reduce the severe
fatigue of the activities of
emergency and rescue

Disaster ProfilingTechnology• Building professional disaster
cause analysis system ofcriminal investigation• Development of analysis andprocedure standardization• Disaster experienced retired
public officer and expertiseat the same time

VIP-5
Contents

Disaster prevention policy & standard advancement- Development of policy and standard to deliver disaster prevention service- Development of safety management standards and standardization ofdisaster management

Brand- Strengthening of disaster prevention standards corresponding to thedisaster environmenta small river disasterprevention facility criteria

Standardization and evaluationof international standard

Disaster management Standard• Preparation of small riverfacility criteria• Development small river
information DB• Settlement the international
hazardous materials• International test institutemanagement standard• International hazardous
material classification manual• National disastermanagement Guidance• Enterprise disaster mitigationplan• Natural disaster standard
manualVIP-6
Contents

Customized Disaster Safety Service- Development the customized fire prevention education and training for public
officer and citizen- Various experience and situation through virtual reality based education andtraining

Brand- Development of disaster education and training techniques based on
virtual reality

Fire prevention training
based on VR• Disaster precursor
phenomena through theInternet gathering andmonitoring• Building trend forecasting
system by type

PUS bsase disaster prevention trial andgame development• Training game for VR disasterrisk identifying and response
countermeasure• Need for VR experience by
PUS

4D disaster experienceby VR• Development of hands-on
type system• Rain, snow, strong winds
operation system• System Using AR

VIP-7
Content

High-tech disaster response equipment- To strength national disaster response capacity through roboticizationof the equipment- To develop mobile disaster response system based on high-tech ICT

Brand- Development of disaster on-site response robot technoglogy

Satellite-based mobile
response equipment

Mobile disaster
information content

Development of fire fighting
intelligent robotics
technologies• Development of satellite
images based response
system in large-scale disaster• Building a mobile satellite
images acquisition andanalysis system• Development of automatic vision
recognition and detect algorism
for each type of disaster• Development of intelligent
disaster detection system andguideline• Development of robots for firefighting and rescuing• Development of robots for
detection of harmful gas andsearch of closed spaces• Development of radio-controlled
helicopters for control of disasterVIP-8Future Safety society foundation

Contents- Building Societal foundation “Safety First” as Critical value- Changing for Safety society based Cultural foundation

Brand- Building societal culture based “Philotechnology” from risk society tosafety society

Safety centered society

National disasterprevention policy• Developing Safety culture based• Paradigm shifting for disaster• Developing Field Manual

education program fromchildhood with ‘safety first’• Sustainable long term planfor safety society foundation• Green Growth based
Resilient Community foundation• Development of disaster
report guideline

Philosophy and Ethics• Development of life-long

Disaster report &Media policy• Enhancement of the safety• historical review andimplication based megadisaster experiences

awareness of the people bypublic relation

Next-generation Disaster Management

30

Korean Peninsula Disaster Risk Assessment
Disaster Response

Ungaged area Disaster
Monitoring

Damage assessment

Risk Assement

31

Korean Peninsula Disaster Risk Assessment
Urban flood prediction

Development Korean type integrated urban

Inundation model test simulation

ground-underground inundation prediction model
Urban risk assessment and UFMS

Establishing Gangnam bus terminal ground-underground model
32

Korean Peninsula Disaster Risk Assessment
Ungaged Area flood prediction
Development of risk standard by ungaged area rainfall quantile
Examination of risk detection standard’s propriety by flood damage
analysis of frequency
Real-time precipitation monitoring and risk assessment byradar information(Long-range)

Estimation of probable precipitation in ungaged area by WMO
rainfall data (2014, NDMI)
33

Korean Peninsula Disaster Risk Assessment
Drought Prediction
Development and operation by MODIS based drought monitoring system(evaporanspiration, NDVI)Developing drought monitoring system by COMS(meteorological satellite)

Drought index by evapotranspiration, July

Drought index by vegetation condition, July
34

Korean Peninsula Disaster Risk Assessment
Typhoon prediction and response (TCDIS)
Typhoon information system based Web-GIS ; UN ESCAP/WMO
Typhoon track , damage and weather information DB OF Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong

35

Land subsidence prediction by Satellite
Land subsidence risk map
Seoul• land subsidence by ground water• land subsidence by subway construction• land subsidence by high building

Incheon airport• land subsidence by landfill

Cheong won

Taebaik, Gangwon• near exhausted mine

Uljin Atomic power plant• monitoring near plant

Pohang• land subsidence by landfill• land subsidence by mining limestone

Gun-san airport &Industrial park

Wolsong, Gori Atomic power plant• land subsidence by sea inflow• monitoring near plant

Younggwang atomic power plan
• monitoring near plant• land subsidence by landfill• apartment land subsidence

Mokpo, Cheonnam: land subsidence reported areas•Land subsidence by flimsy ground•Monitoring near petrochemical complex

Ulsan• land subsidence by landfill• land subsidence by ground water• land subsidence by high buildingBusan: land subsidence risky areas
36Forecasting ground subsidence using Satellite Image
Ground subsidence in Mokpo, Korea
Ground subsidence in Mokpo, Korea (‘14, 4)- 80m of Length and 7m of width< Kim et al., GRL, 2010 >

Mokpo

37

Forecasting ground subsidence using Satellite Image
Ground subsidence in Busan, Kore
 3cm of ground subsidence yearly in Noksan reclaimed land, Busan Cause : use of groundwater in Kimhae area

<Noksanreclaimed Land><Kimhae>

Busan

38

Development of Korean Disaster-Safety Standard
by Empirical Experiment
Application of empirical experiment results
Improve Korean design criteria for disaster prevention facility and revise the related law/regulation
Establish disaster-safety countermeasures at the level of the public’s eye
Induce appropriate budget for recovery and analyze damage causes in disaster prevention facility

39

Development of Korean Disaster-Safety Standard
by Empirical Experiment
Establishment of experimental laboratory
Construction of disaster experimental facilities (2015, Urban hydrological cycle & steep slope-land
Establishment of anticipative research basement for urban flood & steep slope collapse

40

Disaster Response using Satellite
Establishment of wide disaster management systemusing Satellite

Establishment of complex disaster response system for wide & inaccessible area
- Disaster response system by periodic monitoring
Communication
satellite

Arirangsatellite

National Disaster Control Center
Support decision making

Cholliansatellite
Data
Collection

Information

Quasi-real time monitoring

Disaster
area
MOSPA

International
cooperation researchDisconnection of groundcommunication network

NEMA

Relatedagencies

NDMI
Disaster Management
Satellite Center

41

Examples of Disaster Response using Satellite

Wild file[Damaged area]

Earthquake[Type, Damage Area]

Volcano[Pre-sign, ]Landslide[Damaged area, Direction]

Flood[Flood mark]Oil outflow[Spread range]
42Real-time disaster response using UAV
Prompt collection of disaster information
7 UAVs in NDMI (rotorcraft 5, fixed wing craft 2)

Fixed wing craft (2013)

Rotorcraft (2013)

Establishment of the system for collection & analysis<Establishment offlight plan><Cal/Valof sensor><Aerial photograph& collection>><Image matching/<3D Modeling>
Geometric correction>
43

Disaster response using intelligent CCTV
Effective disaster management using automatic system

Application of automatic systemon disaster monitoring- 24hr, continuous disaster monitoring system-Solution for time gap in disaster monitoring

Realization ofeffective disaster information service- Increase of understanding capability by image- Maximize the effectiveness of decision making
by sharing the disaster information

44

Automatic Detection of Wild Fireusing Intelligent CCTV
Until now…..

Telephone

FAX

In future….

E-mail

Alarm

SNS

Siren

45

Estimation and assessment of damage in facility
using vibration characteristics
Systemic management ofvibration data
Control Tower for facility disaster management- Effective unified management ofreal measurement vibration data
- Unification of earthquake data supply

Providing the information offacility damage using GIS- Display of detection results in abnormal vibration &sensor error- Display of damage estimation of earthquake &abnormal vibration46

Disaster Scientific Investigation
Strategy 2. Induction of advanced policy for strengthening safety☞ DSI : Establishment of exclusive center for investigating disaster & safety
causes (2013. 8)※ D:SI(Disaster Scientific Investigation)<MobileDamageInvestigationSystem>< FARD>ElectricField Report< Tsunami Response System< Earthquake>
Diagnosis System>

Existing DSI Technology
Quad copter
Wearable Computer
Tool Kit

Methodology for field
investigation using
cutting-edge tech.

3D Simulation

AnalysisAnalysis of disaster causesby 3d simulation

UAV

Satellite

Estimation of damages

47

UAV Application
Damage investigation
by cutting-edge technology

Field investigation and analysis on examples- Mission in inaccessible area

-Cause analysis on crisis with large scale and social issue- Wildfire in Pohang, algal bloom in Nakdong river, etc.

- Early estimation of damage size by
cutting-edge technology

48

UAV Examples of Field investigation

Damage Investigation
by UAV-Flying radius : 1.5km-Flight altitude : 1m~700m-Flying time : 20 min-Flying radius : 500m
-Flight altitude : 1m~500m-Flying time : 20 min-Flying radius : 15km
-Flight altitude : 20m~1km-Flying time : 120 min

49

Smart Damage investigation
Disaster field investigation using cutting-edge technology

One-Stop Damage investigation- Collection of location information by GPS- Support of Tracking, Mapping function- Making the report of field investigation
with real time
- Saving time of 70%

Guide Application in Smart Phone- Investigation method,
damage and recovery amount etc.
- Effective support for field investigation
50

Conclusion

 Facing the Unexpected Disasters by Design
 Paying the Price Cooperating with Nature
National Academy Press Series

Knowing is not Enough, We must Apply
Willingness is not Enough, We must Do

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

51

National
Disaster
Thank
You!
Management
Institute