REEPS・Andong Unversity Workshop
August 29, 2017

Improving the Energy-Water-Material Nexus
toward sustainable future in East Asia
through the reformation of systems-Outline of Modelling Part 1,2 and 3
Presented by Soocheol Lee
Collaboration study with
REEPS and Cambridge Econometrics
Sponsored by Grants-in-aids for Scientific Research,Japan

Research Questions and Answers of the previous Study
How should East Asia choose its energy and power sources?→PART1
The implementation of a sustainable mix of energy and power sources based on
restriction of nuclear power and fossil fuels, with a range of support measures forrenewables and energy efficiency.
How could East Asian countries design energy/carbon taxes or other carbonpricing instruments→PART2
Our analysis with the E3ME-Asia model showed that, across the East Asian
region, carbon taxes offer a favorable way of raising these revenues, typicallycosting less in terms of GDP and employment than the alternative options.
How should East Asia choose and coordinate low-carbon policies in the tide offree trade?→PART３
The development of a low-carbon partnership in East Asia that will enable policy
coordination in climate and energy issues.

Low-carbon, Sustainable Futurein East Asia: Improving energy
systems, taxation and policy
cooperation
ROUTLEDGE 2015

Improving the Energy-Water-Material Nexus toward sustainable futurein East Asia through the reformation of systems

Contents and Study Periods

PART 1
Improving power sectors toward sustainable low carbon economy by 2050
across East Asia（study period:2016 April~2017 September ）PART2Industry transition, transportation system,buildings and sustainable low
carbon economy by 2050 across East Asia（study period:2016 April~2017
December ）PART3Transition of water, resource and land use for environmental sustainability
across East Asia by 2050(study period:2017 September~2018 September)
PART4
Building a policy framework to ensure future environmental sustainability
across East Asia(study period: 2017 September~2018 December)Study Target

Energy System, Industry and Resource Use Transition toward Sustainable Future in East Asia

Publicity●Symposium(4~6 in 4 years)●Presentation in international academic associations●Working papers, papers for journals (more than 20 papers)●Book publishing (20 chapters)

Teams andStudy
Subjects

Secretariat andModeling
teamTeam 1（power sectortransition）

Designing sustainable electricity systems in East Asia, Reappraisal of renewableenergy,Economic impact and transition of industry under decarbonisation

Team 2(Decarbonisingindustry,transportation,building)

Decarbonising transport systems, Reducing the environmental impact of buildings
Financing the energy system and industry transition

Team 3(water, resource
use transition)

Interaction between energy and material consumption, Sustainable use of water
resources. Managing the use of mineral and biomass resources

Team 4(agriculture, land
use transition,etc.)

Land use requirements and the agricultural sector, Local pollution and related
health effects, The economics of the nexus, in East Asia and beyond

Team 5(policy frame work,
policy cooperation)

Policy lessons from Europe and other global regions, Lessons from East Ssia
Building cooperation between East Asian regions, Case study: East Asian supergrid

Study methods

Hearing and research(governments, Institutes, business circles,
companies), Workshop, Modeling running, Policy analyses

Study Tool

Mainly E3ME-Asia＋FTT：Power,Industry,Transportation,agriculture

Study teamStudy network

Secretariat andmodeling teamTeam １Team ２

Team ３

Team ４３２ academics：Japan（15+３）、Overseas（UK(４), East Asia（10））

Team ５

Background and aims of this study
As global populations and incomes increase throughout the world, pressure on
environmental resources is also increasing. Although the problem is global, East
Asia, which includes the world’s second and third largest global economies andthe world’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, will play a key role inshaping the world that we live in.

With the Paris COP, policy makers across the world are turning their attention tomeasures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, while substantial
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to mitigate climate change,
the problem is in reality far more complex.
Issues of energy consumption are intertwined with those of land use, water andthe consumption of other materials – this has been described as the energywater-material-food ‘nexus’. Researchers are only now beginning to grapple withthis problem and policy makers across the world do not yet have the necessary
tools with which to understand the issue.

In this study we apply new advanced modelling techniques to help develop anunderstanding of the key issues and interactions, including socio-economic
impacts. Using these models, we will make forecasts to 2050 based on abusiness-as-usual scenario for East Asia, covering power sector, industrial
production and the use of energy, water, key mineral resources, and land as well
as agricultural production.
Further, we will calculate emissions of environmental pollutants such as CO2 andparticulate matter accompanying the use, production, and consumption of theabove resources, and we will assess the impacts of health damage and declining
land use on agriculture.
Assuming increased energy and resource productivity, we will examine theimpact of introducing various policy packages aimed at limiting pollution
accompanying the use of these resources (e.g., carbon pricing and taxes on nonrenewable resources, water resources, virtual water transfers, and unsustainable
land use).

The final section shows that cooperation across the East Asian region will beessential to meeting the challenges posed by the nexus. The research willmeasure, evaluate, and compare the impacts of introducing policies at theindividual country level as well as simultaneous adoption of policies throughout
East Asia⇒⇒on the efficient use of energy, water and other resources, and land andagricultural productivity and on the suppression of emissions of various
pollutants. It is aimed at policy makers who will ultimately be responsible formeeting these challenges while ensuring economic and social prosperity forpeople across the region.

biodiversity

agriculture／
forestry

Land use(Part3)

Material use(part3)

Energy-Water-Material
Nexus
Economy, Industry,
Transportation(Part2)

Environment(Part1,2,3)
Climate change(Part1,2,3)

FTT:
industry

FTT:
power

FTT:
transport
ation

FTT:
building

Pollution＆Health(Part3)

FTT:
land use &agriculture

Energy(Part1,2,3)
Social, culture,etc.

Water use
(Part3): FTT model building in thisproject:main study subject in thisproject:mainly future
Study subject

Method of analysis- The E3ME-FTT integrated assessment model•

The situation with the various FTT
modelsEnvironmental'policies'

Emissions*
Units:'tonnes'of'carbon/CO2''

e.g.'industrial'
emissions'of'SF6'

Energy'use'
Environmental'taxes'••

Economic'
policies'
Demographic'change'Pollu=on'abatement'
equipment'

Emissions'trading'
scheme'Economy*Energy'prices''&'costs'

Funding'R&D'

Technology*

Unit:'Euros'

Unit:'Tonnes'of'oil'equivalent'
Energy'use'

investment'

Energy*••Economic'ac=vity'&'general'prices'

Economic'ac=vity'&'general'prices'

Energy'use,'
prices'&'taxes'

Material'use,''
IO,'material'tax'

Energy'demand'Materials''
Unit:'tonnes'•

Resource'efficiency'policies'

Global'oil'price'
Energy'policies'

FTT:Power has been updated with new data
(especially for solar)
FTT:Transport is complete and linked to
E3ME
FTT:Heat(building) is also now complete andlinked to E3ME
FTT:Agriculture (land use) is due to becomplete and linked to E3ME in November
2017
FTT:Industry is still progressing – one of J-F’s
students will be working at CE to help

Modelling PART 1
Improving power sectors toward sustainable low
carbon economy across East Asia

Modelling this part
• ●Using FTT(Future Technology Transition) power sub model connected by
E3ME, we can estimate the changes of power sectors by 2050 of East Asia
by the policy scenarios of regulating the coal power, nuclear each and coal
power and nuclear power simultaneously.
• ●We introduce power sector policies such as feed in tariffs or subsidies toincrease renewables share and show how much these policies promoterenewables.
• ●We could put carbon tax on power sector to estimate how this change
the power mixes in East Asia. We could put a cap on nuclear so that it
doesn’t come up as substitution for fossil fuels technologies• ●For linking grids, we effectively join the regions in FTT, removing some of
the resource constraints on variable / peak load sources. It would have
impacts on harmonising electricity prices between regions. The whole
diffusion dynamic could also change as well, we would need to discuss with
J-F, developer of FTT, but potentially very interesting.

Chapter 3. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : thechoice of power sources by nuclear and coal power
regulations
Outline●In this chapter we explore possible scenarios of power sector development for
four East Asian regions (China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan), all of which havespecific targets for changing the composition of their technology mix in order togenerate power(by chapter 3 of Routledge 2015).
●We use a method that is based on technology diffusion(E3ME+FTT), in which
pathways of technology result from energy policy choices like 5 policy scenarios
below. We explore the feasibility of current aspirations and targets by evaluating
the effectiveness of putative electricity policies in chosen 5 scenarios below.

Chapter 4. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : economicand environmental impact by the choice of power sources ofnuclear and coal power regulations

Outline●In chapter 3 above, we will analyse scenarios, i.e. limiting the share of nuclear power, limiting theshare of coal-fired power, limiting the share of both nuclear and coal-fired power, and subsidizing
renewables. Economic impacts of these scenarios in East-Asia are not immediately or intuitively
obvious to predict.
●This is due to many interacting factors: phasing out inexpensive energy systems, such as nuclear
and coal-fired plants, drives up the total costs of supplying electricity in the power sector. This, in turn,may decrease welfare for consumers and may also reduce international trade competitiveness throughhigher export prices(Chapter 4 of Routledge 2015).
●Meanwhile, investment in low-carbon technology often has beneficial impacts on employment (see,for instance, Wei et al. 2010, and Cambridge Econometrics et al. 2013), since new technologies often
involve higher levels of technological complexity and sophistication, research and development
activities, and increased demand in interrelated sectors across the economy.

Chapter 5. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : the choiceof power sources by feed-in-tariffs and carbon taxes to meet the2030 INDCs and 2050 targets
Outline● In this chapter we focus on the power sector and we will see
how power mixes of CJKT will be influenced by feed-in-tariff andcarbon tax on power sector by 2050 below.
● Estimate carbon tax to meet the 2030 INDCs of CJKT andsimultaneously to meet the 80% reduction by 2050(comparing 2010)
in Japan, Korea and Taiwan and 50% reduction by 2050(comparing2010) in China(no restriction on energy mix target of CJKT).

Chapter 6. Modelling power sectors in East Asia: the choice of powersources by CGE-This chapter is CGE version of chapter 3,5-Basically same scenario and same logic of chapter 3,5Chapter 7. Modelling power sectors in East Asia: economic andenvironmental impact by the choice of power sources by-This chapter is CGE version of chapter 4-Basically same scenario and same logic of chapter 4

Modelling PART 2
Industry transition, transportation system andsustainable low carbon economy across East Asia

Chapter 8. Economic and Environmental impacts of carbon
taxes in East Asia by carbon taxes to meet the 2030INDCs
targets and 2050 targets(or 2℃ target)

Outline● In this chapter we will see environmental and economic
impacts of carbon taxes under various levels of efforts byeconomic sectors like scenarios below.
● Carbon taxes to meet INDC and 2C target will be lower and lower
by the additional efforts of sectors

Chapter 9 Environmental impacts of carbon taxes in East Asia
by carbon taxes to meet the 2030INDCs targets and 2050
targets(or 2℃ target)●CGE version of chapter 8

Chapter 10. Economic impact and transition of industry under
decarbonisation：under GHG emission reduction target and energy
mix in 2030, 2050

Outline●Transition of industrial structures under decarbonisation: GHG
emission reduction target and energy mix in 2030, 2050 and its
impacts on economy, employment and international competition●How to reduce emissions from key industries through thedevelopment and adoption of new technologies. Likely to focus on
the main polluters (metals, cement, refineries, chemicals, papers &pulps etc.)●possibility of technology breaks through (e.g. battery) and industry
transition ⇒game changing technology(?)●Comparison of the EU and East Asian policy frameworks

E3ME-FTT Industry• Similar concept as FTT-Power and FTT-Transport – technology
diffusions• More complex because different industries use different production
technologies
Development stage:• which industries to include?
Possible sectors: chemical, steel, petroleum, pulp and paper・defining technologies• defining policy options• data collection• link to E3ME – inputs and feedback• link to E3ME raw material demand?

Industrial
process
4%

Energytransition
7%

Household
15%

Building,
business
21%

Industry
34%

JAPAN
1265 million tCO2(2014)

Transportation
17%

Steel：15.9%
Cement etc.：3.6%
Chemistry：6.5%
Paper and Pulp：1.9%
Aluminium:0.5%→80% emission share of
total industry emission

E3ME-FTT Industry - example© Xi'an Abundance Electric Technology Co.,Ltd

Santamaria and Linares (2011) http://www.iit.upcomillas.es/docs/IIT-11-090A.pdf

高炉の鉄鋼１トンの製造時に生じる二酸化炭素）は単純
計算では約2.0kg、電気炉の鉄鋼は約0.５kgになるので、二酸化炭素排出量は電気炉のほうが高炉より約1/4節
約可能となる

E3ME-FTT Industry Linkages
E3ME

investment
demandaffect all demand types

intermediatedemandconsumerdemandindustry
demandFTT-Industry

exportdemand- fuel tax- carbon tax

importdemand (-ve)

IO feedback

FTT Industry policies*

industry CO2
average priceinvestment
feedback to E3ME investment
Preliminary – subject to change

different
production
methods

fuel demandraw material
demand• Chapter 11 Economic impact and transition of industry
under decarbonisation：under GHG emission reduction
target and energy mix in 2030, 2050 by CGE●CGE version of chapter 10

Chapter 12. Decarbonising transport systems-Future transportscenarios
Outline●Identifying the co-benefits of shifting to low-carbon
transportation●integrating a model of private passenger transport into
E3ME (choice of cars by consumers) →estimates the impacts
of different vehicle shares on economic activity andemployment rates.
●estimates the eventual share of electric vehicles under
different fuel taxes and vehicle subsidies.
●Its impact on economy, CO2 reduction, supply chain effects
and jobs

Policy Scenarios●Introduction of transport demand equations (in passenger km) from
E3ME to FTT transport and the feedback from FTT transport to E3ME
will be on fuel demand by road transport sector which would give
impacts on CO2 and rest of economy.

Fuelling Britain’s Future(Cambridge Econometrics, 2015)
http://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fuelling-Britains-Future-Technical-Report.pdf
Fuelling Europe’s Future(Cambridge Econometrics,2013)
http://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fuelling-Europes-Future-How-auto-innovationleads-to-EU-jobs.pdf

E3ME-FTT Transport
Decarbonising road transport• using combination of policies• ongoing joint paper: the 1.5°C scenario
Initial findings so far (preliminary and confidential) …
• Share of electric vehicle do not rise to high percentage by 2050 (except in few
countries)• hybrid come in between 30-40 and high efficiency ICE  possible reason for slow
electric car uptake• high efficiency ICE vehicle come into the mix  reduce fuel use but not fast enough• decarbonisation takes time
• CNG also increase in countries with existing use of technology• decarbonisation of remaining non-electric can be done using biofuels mandates but
need to be careful• global electricity consumption doesn’t become too large (efficiency)• impact on global oil price* policy refinement and various issues still to be looked at. Freight transport is not included.

E3ME-FTT Transport
E3ME consumption equation

car priceincomefuel pricedistance
drivencar sales

FTT-Transport

FTT transport policies*

IO feedback
average car
price

car demandby technology

road transport
fuel demandroad transport
CO2- fuel tax- carbon tax

The diffusion of vehicle technology
53 regions, 25 technologies
15.$UK
Prices'of'cars'(USD/km)
Std'of'price'' fuel'cost'(USD)std'fuel'cost O&M'costs'(USD)
O&M'costs'(std)'
Discount'ratelifetime energy'use'(MJ/km)
Distance'travelled'per'year'
occupancy'rate'
Capacity'factor'
C'(initial) CO2EmissionsSeats/Veh Learning'exponent
Petrol$Econ
18683.00
4396.00
0.095
0.013
0.038
0.020
15%
12
1.583
12104
0.375
4539.0 1.00744 109.732966
4 R0.0144996
Petrol$Mid
32185.00
8164.00
0.123
0.014
0.051
0.030
15%
12
2.064
12104
0.375
4539.0 0.72093 143.044759
4 R0.0144996
Petrol$Lux
99538.00 49455.00
0.202
0.057
0.064
0.030
15%
12
3.379
12104
0.375
4539.0 R0.216744 234.16231
4 R0.0144996
Advance$Petrol$Econ
18683.00
4396.00
0.076
0.013
0.038
0.020
15%
12
1.425
12104
0.375
4539.0 1.00744 98.759669
4 R0.0740006
Advance$Petrol$Mid
32185.00
8164.00
0.110
0.014
0.051
0.030
15%
12
1.858
12104
0.375
4539.0 0.72093 128.740283
4 R0.0740006
Advance$Petrol$Lux
99538.00 49455.00
0.161
0.057
0.064
0.030
15%
12
3.041
12104
0.375
4539.0 0.216744 210.746079
4 R0.0740006
Diesel$Econ
22608.00
3297.00
0.069
0.010
0.038
0.020
15%
12
1.351
12104
0.375
4539.00.3 100.104906
4 R0.0144996
Diesel$Mid$
33755.00
7065.00
0.077
0.015
0.051
0.030
15%
12
1.581
12104
0.375
4539.00 117.12274
4 R0.0144996
Diesel$Large
54793.00 14601.00
0.118
0.025
0.064
0.040
15%
12
2.104
12104
0.375
4539.0 R0.441858 155.926763
4 R0.0144996
Advance$Diesel$Econ
22608.00
3297.00
0.084
0.010
0.038
0.000
15%
12
1.216
12104
0.375
4539.00.3 90.0944151
4 R0.0740006
Advance$Diesel$Mid$
33755.00
7065.00
0.095
0.015
0.051
0.000
15%
12
1.423
12104
0.375
4539.00 105.410466
4 R0.0740006
Advance$Diesel$Large
54793.00 14601.00
0.095
0.025
0.064
0.000
15%
12
1.894
12104
0.375
4539.0 R0.441858 140.334087
4 R0.0740006
CNG$Econ21485.45
1000.00
0.048
0.055
0.039
0.020
15%
12
1.508
12104
0.375
4539.0 0.627906 84.5988
4 R0.0144996
CNG$Mid
37012.75
3000.00
0.071
0.069
0.056
0.030
15%
12
2.210
12104
0.375
4539.0 0.321858 123.981
4 R0.0144996
CNG$large
114468.70
5000.00
0.082
0.076
0.066
0.040
15%
12
2.548
12104
0.375
4539.0R0.78 142.9428
4 R0.0144996
Hybrid$Econ
29202.00
2826.00
0.084
0.003
0.039
0.030
15%
12
1.414
12104
0.375
4539.0 R0.302328 97.9758621
4 R0.1520031
Hybrid$Mid
34540.00
6594.00
0.073
0.009
0.056
0.040
15%
12
1.216
12104
0.375
4539.0R0.72 84.2592414
4 R0.1520031
Hybrid$Lux$
78343.00
9263.00
0.124
0.017
0.066
0.040
15%
12
2.078
12104
0.375
4539.0 R0.78093 144.024517
4 R0.1520031
EV$Econ10990.00
157.00
0.000
0.000
0.046
0.040
15%
12
0.210
12104
0.375
4539.0 1.32558
0
4 R0.1520031
EV$Mid44745.00
1256.00
0.000
0.000
0.065
0.050
15%
12
0.540
12104
0.375
4539.00
0
4 R0.1520031
EV$Lux89961.00
2355.00
0.000
0.000
0.080
0.060
15%
12
0.580
12104
0.375
4539.0R3
0
4 R0.1520031
2$Wheelers$Motorcycle$Econ$(<500cc)
3808.00
1326.00
0.040
0.003
0.030
0.030
15%
7
0.676
6052
0.55
3328.62.2693 46.8324621
2 R0.0144996
2$Wheelers$Motorcycle$Lux$(>500cc)
14932.00
5760.00
0.127
0.039
0.030
0.030
15%
7
2.124
6052
0.55
3328.6 0.906978 147.159745
2 R0.0144996
Adv$Mot
3808.00
1326.00
0.040
0.095
0.030
0.030
15%
7
0.676
6052
0.55
3328.62.2693 46.8324621
2 R0.0144996
Adv$Mot$
14932.00
5760.00
0.095
0.095
0.030
0.030
15%
7
2.124
6052
0.55
3328.6 0.906978 147.159745
R0.0144996
Mercure &2 Lam,
In preparation (2016)

againThe effectiveness of policy on consumer choices
for private road passenger transport emissions
reductions in six major economies 2015
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1810/247636/WorldCarFleets_ArXiv_v3.
pdf?sequence=2

Chapter 13. Reducing the environmental impact ofbuildings
Outline●decarbonization potential in building sector of East
Asia
●ways to increase energy efficiency, for example
through behavioural change or product standards●economic impacts of reducing energy consumption,
including linkages to the power sector●impact of carbon pricing mainly targeting tobuildings(eg. Tokyo ETS)
●comparison with EU and East Asia

Scenario inputs and outputs• Possible scenario inputs:• fuel tax, carbon tax• Exogenous energy efficiency investment and savings• Ways to finance these investments (e.g. taxes)• Building tax, Building regulations, Building subsidies• E3ME/FTT output variables:• Building technologies , Building demand for fuels, GDP (RGDP),
Component of GDP (RSC, RSX, RSM, RSK), Employment (YRE), Price(PRSC), Sectoral output and employment (QR, YRE), Sector
competitiveness (QRX, QRM)
• CO2 (FCO2), GHG (RGHG), Implication on global fossil fuel price if any

Chapter 14. The double dividend of an environmental tax reform in East
Asian economies meeting the 2030INDCs targets and 2050 targets(or2℃ target)(E3ME version)● In this chapter we will see how carbon tax reform by 2050 impact on
economies of CJKT.
--Scenario with revenue recycling, consumption tax, income tax,
corporation tax, social contributions●Almost same methodology with chapter 8 of our previous book14.1 The double dividend of an environmental tax reform in East Asian
economies meeting the 2030INDCs targets and 2050 targets(or 2℃
target) (CGE version)

Chapter 15 Financing the energy system and industry
transition – the economics if decarbonisation
Outline●There are various financing options available, either public or private.
The key issue is whether it is possible to increase the stock of debt inorder to invest in new equipment. If banks are willing to lend then there
can be an increase in economic activity.
--International financial institute,--public finance including fiscal fund, revenues by taxation, charges, FIT, etc.
--Long term institutional capital (such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds)--private finance, green bond●Using financial resources by carbon pricings and other tax revenues●How to finance the transition and its investments:
The issue of financial crowding out and banks and the financial sector●Nuclear power related tax revenues or charges●Raising funds for industry transition and EU experience

Modelling PART 3
Transition of water, resource and land use forenvironmental sustainability across East Asia

Modelling this part
●Using Global material modelling in E3ME (currently

under development), adding material tax and carbon tax
simultaneously. We first have a carbon tax to match
INDC without material tax then have another scenariothat also impose material tax to see the impacts on
carbon price.

Chapter14. Interaction between energy and material consumption
Outline●existing trends in energy and material consumption and outlook of resources by the
consumption of goods and energy, material recycling⇒production of basic materials such as steel and cement are very energy and carbon
intensive, suggesting that lower material consumption would lead to lower carbon
emissions⇒but many of the ways of reducing carbon emissions (buildings efficiency, wind
renewables) are quite material intensive, suggesting an inverse relationship.
●explore this relationship using a combination of modelling and case study analysis●CO2 emission by the consumption of goods and services: extended evaluation（?）⇒OECD(production-based CO2 productivity, demand-based CO2 productivity)●Effect of introducing resource and environmental taxes to conserve material
consumption and reduce environmental impact.

Chapter 15 Sustainable use of water resources
Outline●How to preserve and conserve water resources●The role of pricing in regulating water consumption●Virtual water movement in domestic and trans-boundary bases and theirmeasurement●Recycling water resources●Effect of water related taxes to preserve and conserve water resources

Chapter16. Managing the use of biomass resources
Outline●The possibility for taxes or other instruments on the consumptionof certain types of materials●Economic impacts of such taxes● Interaction with energy consumption and other sustainability goals● interactions with water consumption

Chapter 17 Land use requirements and the agricultural sector
Outline●Most of the large-scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) used by the
IPCC include a land use component (e.g. IMAGE, GCAM).
●Possible scenarios could include the use of biofuels in road/air transport, andpossible feedbacks to food prices and economic welfare across the planet.
●Trade in Japanese agriculture – sensitivity to different price elasticities

Chapter18

Local pollution and related health effects

Outline●Accounting for health impacts from air pollution in a macro modelling
framework●Previous research in this area (including in East Asia, especially China) has
shown that the benefits of reducing local air pollution can be substantial – theyaccrue mainly through impacts on human health. However, these benefits are
rarely included in full assessments of decarbonisation policies.
●Assess the impacts of reduced sulphur and particular emissions on human health.
●Rather than use simple ‘damage’ costs, we will aim to model the impacts directly,
for example by adjusting population and labour productivity●PM、CO、NOx、SOx、VOC2.5？？ emission and cross-border movement--Polluter pays principle? Beneficiary pays principle?
--waste and recycle resources?

Chapter 19 The economics of the nexus, in East Asia and beyond

Outline●value of resource stock, virtual resources?? ,resource productivity*Wichelens(2001)virtual land * Roadmap to a Resource Efficient
Europe●Bringing together the results from the previous chapters to consider
in a single context, interactions between energy, material, water andland use. Initial suggestions of policies that would help in each case –before part 3 goes into more detail on the policies.

Policy Analysis PART 4
Building a policy framework to ensure futuresustainability in East Asia

Outline
20. Policy lessons from other global regions--The nexus is global by definition – e.g. demand for pork in China leads to soya bean production
and deforestation in Brazil. So policies must be set in a global context, including cooperation
between East Asian regions.
--So the first question is what have other regions done
21. Lessons from East Asia--Then consider what has been done previously in East Asia to limit consumption of energy, water,materials and land.

22. Managing the energy transition--Building on the results from the analysis and modelling in the earlier chapters. Reducing GHG
emissions is an important part of the overall process as climate change will affect e.g. water
availability, agricultural yields, etc.
--What policies are possible in practice?

Outline
23. Policies to reduce pressure across the nexus--Building on the findings from the results of Part 2 – what policies are possible in practice?
24. Building cooperation between East Asian regions--Merit and possibility of energy and environmental policy cooperation in East Asia--European Environmental Agency v.s. East Asia Environment Agency(??)--merit and possibility to build such organization in East Asia--EU energy (and environment) commission v.s. East Asia energy(and environment) commission(??)＊Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia http://www.eanet.asia/research/list.html＊the Asia Center for Air Pollution Research(ACAP) http://www.acap.asia/index.html
25. Case study: Reviewing an East Asian super grid, The Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East
Asia (EANET)--Experience from European super grid ＊European super grid http://www.friendsofthesupergrid.eu/
http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/resources/airtricity_supergrid_V1.4.pdf

Study schedule of 2017~2018●Finalize the chapters of Part 1 and 2 by the end of this year
● Finalize the chapters of Part 3 by the end of September 2018
●Submit Thematic Session at WCERE→Part２, if possible （2030NDC and 2050 2℃target, Industry,
Transportation, Building）→WCERE：June25~29 2018 Göteborgs,Sweden●Submit chapters in Part 3 to SEEPS(September), KEEA(?) ,etc.
●Apply to KAKEN(A or S) October 2018
●Submit all the chapters to the publisher(ROUTLEDGE) by the endof 2018
2017/01/03

Improving the Energy-Water-Material Nexus

47

Part 1
Subjects(titles of Parts and Chapters)Introsituation

Introduction to the study and the modelling
1. The Energy-Water-Material Nexus in East Asia
2. Modelling the Energy-Water-Material Nexus toward sustainable future in East Asia

Part 1 Improving power sectors toward sustainable low carbon economy across East Asia
3. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : the choice of power sources by nuclear Azuma,Unnada,Na,
Chen,Ka,Slee,Kenichi
and coal power regulations→Working Paper by the end of September andcontribute to Meijo Asia Research by the end of this October(maybe OK)
Presented at EAAERE2017
4. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : economic impact by the choice of power
Slee,Unnada,Hector,
sources of nuclear and coal power regulations
Presented at→Working Paper by the end of September contribute to Meijo Asia Research by Chiashi
EAAERE2017
the end of this October(maybe OK)
5. Modelling the power sectors in East Asia : the choice of power sources by feed-in- Tae,Unnada,na,ka,Chen,
Kenchitariff and carbon taxes to meet the 2030 INDCs and 2050 targets→Working Paper by the end of September(maybe OK) and contribute to Ryukoku Presented at EAAERE2017
University Journal
6. Modelling power sectors in East Asia: the choice of power sources (CGE version of MK ?
chapter 3 and 5, or Chapter 4)
7. Economic and environmental impact by the choice of power sources: An
application of Scenario Input-Output Analysis to China and Japan

Wang ?

48

Part 2
Subjects(titles of Parts and Chapters)

situation
Part 2 Industry transition, transportation system and sustainable low carbon economy across East Asia
8. Economic and environmental impact by carbon taxes to meet the 2030INDCs
Hector,et.al.
targets and 2050 targets(or 2℃ target)(E3ME version
Drafting now→Working Paper by the end of this December ( ? )9. Economic and environmental impact by carbon taxes to meet the 2030INDCs
MK ?
targets and 2050 targets(CGE version)
10. Economic impact and transition of industry under decarbonisation: under GHG Sunhee,Unnada,J-F,
Hector,Slee,Smithemission reduction target and energy mix in 2030,2050(E3ME version).
Presented at EAAERE2017→Working Paper by the end of this December ( ? )11. Economic impact and transition of industry under decarbonisation: under GHG
MK?
emission reduction target and energy mix in 22030,2050(CGE version)
Aileen,Slee,J-F,Cho, Lin ,12. Decarbonising transport systems
Hector,Unnada,Sophie→Working Paper by the end of September(maybe OK) and
Presented at SEEPS2017
contribute SEEPS by the end of October
13. Reducing the environmental impact of buildings
Drafting now→Working Paper by the end of December( ? )14. The double dividend of an environmental tax reform in East Asian economies
Drafting now
meeting the 2030INDCs targets and 2050 targets(or 2℃ target)
15. Financing the energy system and industry transition – the economics ofHector,et.al.
decarbonisation
Draft almost finished→Working Paper by the end of December
2017/01/03
49

Authors of chapters in Part 3
Subjects(titles of Parts and Chapters)
Part 3First Author

Transition of water, resource and land use for environmental sustainability across East Asia

14.Interaction between energy and material consumption

A

Hector to lead on with→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018 support from Unnada
Fujikawa and Hector
15.Sustainable use of water resources→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018

16.Managing the use of biomass resources→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018

Unnada to lead on

17.Land use requirements and the agricultural sector

Bc

J-F to lead on with his→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018 colleague Soeren
Chiashi (Unnada to
18.Local pollution and related health effects→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018 provide model
results)

19.The economics of the nexus, in East Asia and beyond→First draft by the end of April, 2018 →Final paper by the end of September 2018

Slee, Hector and J-F

A: Modelling the interaction between energy, water and material consumption
B: Modelling the land use, agriculture and local pollution
50

Authors of chapters in Part 4
Subjects(titles of Parts and Chapters)
Part 4

tentative authors

Building a policy framework to ensure future environmental sustainability
20.Policy lessons from Europe and other global regions

Azuma, Lin&Wen,
HP,Slee

21.Lessons from East Asia

Fujikawa, Ka,
Kitagawa, Slee

22.Managing the energy transition

Ashina,Azuma,Hamam
oto,Kawakatsu,Kim,K
M,ParkFujikawa,HP,Ka

23.Policies to reduce pressure across the nexus
24.Building cooperation between East Asian regions

Chiashi,Kitagawa,
Lin&Wen,Na, Slee,Suk

25.Case study: Reviewing an East Asian super grid, The Acid
Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET)

Azuma,
HP,Park,Unnada*All of our chapters will be contributed to ROUTLEDGE by the end of 20182017/01/03

Improving the Energy-Water-Material Nexus

51

Domestic and International conferences related to our study in 2017
Conference datesName of conferences

Venue

Abstract
deadline

Full paper
deadline

August
4~6○EAAERE<Nanyang Technological University >Mandarin Orchard
Singapore Hotel

Early April

Middle ofJuly

August 29◎International members meeting

Korea

September ○SEEPS
9~10<Kochi University of Technology>

Kami city, Kochi
Prefecture,Japan

September The International Society for Ecological
17~21
Modelling Global Conference

Ramada, plaza
Jeju

June25~29 ○WCERE
2018<Göteborgs universitet>
PART1:power sector(same as EAAERE2017)?
PART2:Industry,Transportation,Building,Financing?

Göteborgs,
SwedenAzuma,Tae,Slee, Suk
Unnada

Early June

Late July

April 3

AileenHector,Slee

January 31
2018