IEEJ：November 2019 © IEEJ2019

The Future of Nuclear Energy in a CarbonConstrained WorldRichard Lester
Associate Provost, International
Japan Steel Industry Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering
M.I.T.
Institute for Energy Economics, JapanTokyo, Japan
November 6, 2019

Getting to Zero
Global carbon intensity of energy

Source: Peters et al. (2017), “Keyindicators to track current progress
and future ambition of the Paris
Agreement,” Nature Climate
Change 7: 118-122
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Richard K. Lester2

Electricity: the Linchpin[TWh]Natural gas

CoalOil & other fossil

Low-CO2

8,000~Double
demand6,0004,000
2,00002017
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2030

2040

2050

RichardLester of U.S. Electric Power Sector
Data source: PNNL "Reference +80%" scenario in GGCAM
USAK.Analysis
Transitions May 2017 performed for the United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization

Near-zero
CO23

Wind, Solar & Battery Costs Plummet$1,000
$800

$150

$600
$100
$400
$50

$200

$0

$0

Lithium-ion battery pack costs ($/KWh)

Levelized cost of wind and solar ($/MWh)$200

Total cost declines

Solar $/MWh -72%

Wind $/MWh -67%

Li-ion packs $/KWh -79%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201711/2/19
Richard K. Lester
Data Source: Wind and solar levelized costs from Lazard. Battery pack costs from Bloomberg New Energy Finance4

A simple ‘mental model’
A race to beat fossil fuels on cost…
350

Levelized cost of electricity ($/MWh)

Solar $/MWh

Solar GW

$150

$100

300
250

Coal $/MWh200

Gas $/MWh

150
100

$50

50
$0-2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Data Source: Lazard (2017), Levelized Cost of Energy 2017, https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017/.

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Global installed solar PV capacity (GW)$200

A simple ‘mental model’
A race to beat fossil fuels on cost…
350

Levelized cost of electricity ($/MWh)

Solar $/MWh

Solar GW

300

$150

250
“Everything should be made as simple as possible,
Coal $/MWh200
but
notsimpler.”$100

Gas $/MWh150-- Albert Einstein
100

$50

50
$0-2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Data Source: Lazard (2017), Levelized Cost of Energy 2017, https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017/.

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Global installed solar PV capacity (GW)

$200A Race Against Declining Value

Solar PV average market value($/MWh)$120

Germany

Germany (Hirth, 2013)

California

California (Mills & Wiser, 2012)

Texas

$90

MIT Future of Solar Study (2015)2017 estimated solar PV
levelized cost $/MWh

$60

$30

$005

1015202530

Solar PV market share (% of total annual energy)
Data Source: Sivaram & Kann (2016), Solar needs a more ambitious cost target, Nature Energy Vol. 1 (April 2016).

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“Fuel saving”
variablerenewables“Fastburst”
balancingresources“Firm” low-carbon
resources

11/2/19“Flexible base”

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Long-duration“Firm cyclers”

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“FastBurst”

Northern System

Average cost of electricity ($/MWh)“FuelSaving”“FuelSaving”“FastBurst”“Firm”

CO2 emissions limit (g/kWh)
Data source: Sepulveda, Jenkins, de Sisternes, & Lester (2018), “The role of firm low-carbon
resources in deep decarbonization of electric power systems,” Joule

“FastBurst”

Southern System

Average cost of electricity ($/MWh)“FuelSaving”“FuelSaving”“FastBurst”“Firm”

CO2 emissions limit (g/kWh)
Data source: Sepulveda, Jenkins, de Sisternes, & Lester (2018), “The role of firm low-carbon
resources in deep decarbonization of electric power systems,” Joule.

Advanced Nuclear Projects in the United States (2019)

Source: Third Way
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MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

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New Priorities for Nuclear Innovation
ü Lower (and more predictable) capital cost
ü Shorter (and more predictable) construction times
ü Enhanced safety
ü Reduced proliferation and security risks
ü Optimized waste streams for geologic disposal
ü New markets (beyond baseload power)
ü Fluid fuels production
ü Industrial heatü Grid services (load following, load shifting, etc.)
ü Sustainable uranium and thorium usage

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Fusion holds the possibility for producing virtually limitless, clean,safe energy• The tokamak concept has brought fusion to the brink of achieving
net energy production• Scientists and engineers around the world are coming up withways of optimizing the tokamak• A fast path to fusion is needed to ensure that fusion power canhelp mitigate the effects of climate change

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ITER is a very large international tokamak experiment, coming online
in the late 2020s.

This is JET (1985-present)
Q = 0.65 record performance
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This is ITER, predicted Q > 10
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A typical road map to fusion: Big machines, many decades

Image from Yuanxi Wan, FPA presentation, December 16-17, 2014 35 th FPA , Washington USA
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A faster path to fusion energy based on smaller tokamaks and othertechnologies is gaining momentum around the world• There is a nascent fusion industry – agrowing number of companies• They are optimizing for things beyondphysics• Moving faster than government programs– Tight focus on deliverables andmilestones– With less $ (now) and different
resources than gov’t– High-growth potential
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SPARC is a compact high-field tokamak proposed at MIT that
could come online in less than a decade
SPARC would be much smaller
than ITER, but would have muchhigher magnetic field, allowing
high performance in compact
devicehttp://news.mit.edu/2018/mit-newly-formed-company-launch-novel-approachfusion-power-0309
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SPARC would achieve mQ > 2 [Greenwald, NAS paper]
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New Technology• HTS magnets make fusion 10x smaller, faster, and cheaper

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New Organizational + Funding Model•‘Born at scale’A New PathWhat should Japan do?

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Japan’s carbon emissions

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Richard K. Lester221. New missions and new markets for nuclear energy in Japan’senergy mix.

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Richard K. Lester24Three new missions for nuclear energy inJapan1)

Flexible electricity generation at existing power plant sites,
to replace retiring coal/natural gas capacity, and tocomplement variable generation from solar and wind.

2) Flexible co-generation of electricity and heat at industrialsites, to support the production of valuable products,
including hydrogen for transportation.
3) Generation of power and heat for niche markets such as
remote communities/islands, military bases, mining sites,
disaster relief, district heating, data centers, and freight ship
propulsion.
Source: Buongiorno et al, Japan’s Next Nuclear Energy System, MIT, November 2019 (in process)11/2/19

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Three new missions for nuclear energy inJapan
1)

Flexible electricity generation at existing power plant sites,
to replace retiring coal/natural gas capacity, and tocomplement variable generation from solar and wind.

Small modularBWR

2) Flexible co-generation of electricity and heat at industrialsites, to support the production of valuable products,
including hydrogen for transportation.

HTGR3) Generation of power and heat for niche markets such as
remote communities/islands, military bases, mining sites,
disaster relief, district heating, data centers, and freight ship
propulsion.

Heat-pipemicro- reactor

Source: Buongiorno et al, Japan’s Next Nuclear Energy System, MIT, November 2019 (in process)11/2/19

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1. New missions and new markets for nuclear energy in Japan’senergy mix.
2. Participate in international capital pools dedicated tocommercialization of advanced nuclear technologies.

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Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp