THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Table of Contents
Message from the Director-General of NSSC ..................................................................................... 1
Program Committee ............................................................................................................................. 2
Program Agenda ................................................................................................................................... 3
Presenter Guide – Oral ........................................................................................................................ 4
Presenter Guide – Poster ..................................................................................................................... 5
Session Schedule – Oral ....................................................................................................................... 6
Session Schedule - Poster .................................................................................................................. 14
Oral Session Abstracts ....................................................................................................................... 17
Keynote Report ............................................................................................................................... 17
Space Environment Research and Exploration ............................................................................. 25
Space Weather Forecasting and Modeling .................................................................................... 34
Space Weather: Research to Operations (R2O) ............................................................................. 43
The Research on Solar Cycle Activity ............................................................................................ 52
The Research on Ionosphere and Thermosphere .......................................................................... 67
Poster Session Abstracts .................................................................................................................... 82
Participants List................................................................................................................................ 111
Author Index ..................................................................................................................................... 117
Tours Information ............................................................................................................................ 126
Fuxian Solar Observatory ............................................................................................................ 127
The Stone Forest ........................................................................................................................... 128
General Information......................................................................................................................... 129
Workshop Venue ........................................................................................................................... 130
Useful Information ....................................................................................................................... 133

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Message from the Director-General of NSSC

On behalf of the National Space Science Center (NSSC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National
Astronomical Observatories (NAO), including the Yunnan Astronomical Observatory (YNAO) of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, and the Local Organizing Committee of the 2nd AOSWA (Asia-Oceania Space
Weather Alliance) Workshop, it is our privilege to invite you to attend the AOSWA Workshop on November
4-7, 2013, in Kunming, China. We are honored to host this event and look forward to welcoming our friends
and colleagues from around the Asian and Oceania countries as well as from international researchcommunity.
This will be the 2nd workshop held by AOSWA. AOSWA seeks both global and regional cooperation on thedevelopment of research and practical operation of space weather, and kicked off the regional alliance forspace weather among Asian and Oceania countries.
The purpose of this workshop is to promote the regional linkage and information sharing of operation andresearch on space environment by bringing together members of the Asian-Oceania scientific community as
well as other international organizations concerning with space weather. This workshop will provide an
opportunity in which various communities can come and discuss recent achievements of observational,
theoretical, modeling, forecasting, and application addressing the aforementioned areas.
We wish all the participants a successful and fruitful workshop and hope you enjoy the stay in Kunming!

Dr. Ji WU
Director-General of National Space Science Center
Chinese Academy of Sciences
And General Chair of 2013 AOSWA workshop
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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Program Committee
General Chair

Dr. Ji WU (National Space Science Center, China)
wuji@nssc.ac.cn

General Co-Chair

Dr. Jiancun GONG (National Space Science Center, China)
gongjc@nssc.ac.cn

Dr. Weixing WAN (Institute of Geology and Geophysics, China)
wanw@mail.iggcas.ac.cn

Dr. Toshio IGUCHI (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan)
iguchi@nict.go.jp

Scientific Organizing

Dr. Dave NEUDEGG (IPS Radio & Space Services, Australia)

Committee

D.Neudegg@bom.gov.au

Dr. A. K. UPADHAYAYA (National Physical Laboratory, India)
upadhayayaak@mail.nplindia.org

Dr. Mamoru ISHII (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan)
mishii@nict.go.jp

Mr. Sunhak HONG (Korean Space Weather Center, Korea)
sunhak.hong@gmail.com

Dr. Alexander POTAPOV (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, SB-RAS, Russia)
potapov@iszf.irk.ru

Dr. Huaning WANG (National Astronomical Observatories, China)
hnwang@nao.cas.cn

Dr. Siqing LIU (National Space Science Center, China)liusq@nssc.ac.cn

Dr. Jun LIN (Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, China)
jlin@ynao.ac.cn

Local Organizing
Committee

Dr. Ercha AA (National Space Science Center, China) aercha@nssc.ac.cn
Dr. Zhanle DU (National Astronomical Observatories, China) zldu@nao.cas.cn
Dr. Zhixing MEI (Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, China) meizhixing@ynao.ac.cn
Mrs. Min YU (National Space Science Center, China) yumin@nssc.ac.cn
Ms. Siwei WANG (National Space Science Center, China) ym@nssc.ac.cn
Ms. Weiwei TANG (National Space Science Center, China) tangww@nssc.ac.cn

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Program Agenda
Date

MondayTuesday

WednesdayThursdayFriday04 November

05 November

06 November

07 November

08 November

Opening
Ceremony

AM1(08:30-09:00)

Session 3: RO

Meeting Rm. 4(08:00-10:00)

Photo Shooting

Meeting Rm. 4

Session 4: SA

Session 5: IT

Business

First HalfFirst Half

Meeting 1(08:00-09:45)(08:00-09:45)(08:00-10:00)

Meeting Rm. 4

Meeting Rm. 1

Meeting Rm. 1(09:00-09:30)
Hotel Entrance

Coffee/Tea

10:00-10:15

AM2
Registration

09:45-10:00
Session 4: SA

Session 5: IT

Second Half

Second Half

Keynote Report

Poster Viewing(10:00-11:45)(10:00-11:45)(09:30-12:00)(10:15-12:15)

Meeting Rm. 4

Meeting Rm. 1

Meeting Rm. 4

2/F, Lobby

Hotel Lobby

Closing Ceremony(11:45-12:15)
Meeting Rm. 4

Lunch

12:00-13:30

12:15-13:30

12:15-13:30

Session 1: RE

PM1(13:30-15:30)
Meeting Rm. 4

Coffee/Tea

15:30-15:45
Session 2: FM

PM2

Technical Visit(Fuxian Solar

Excursion

Observatory)(Stone Forest)

13:30-18:00

13:30-18:00

Dinner Outside

Dinner Outside(15:45-17:45)
Meeting Rm. 4

Evening1

Welcoming

Poster Viewing

Ice Breaking

Banquet(Optional)(20:00-21:00)(18:00-20:00)(20:00-21:00)

2/F, Lobby

Cafeteria

2/F, Lobby

Data circulation, Regional cooperation, and Host of next AOSWA Workshop will be discussed. Any participants are welcomed.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Presenter Guide – Oral
1. Presentation ID – How to Read
FM – 07
Session Code

Presentation NO.

FM07

2. Session Code and Topics
O

Opening Address

K

Keynote Report

RE

Space Weather Research and Exploration

FM

Space Weather Forecasting and Modeling

RO

Space Weather Research to OperationsSA

Research on Solar Activity

IT

Research on Ionosphere & Thermosphere

3. Prepare Your Presentation
Length of the presentation material should be in accordance with your time allotted. You arerequested to load your presentation material before the session starts.

4. Determine Your Visual/Audio Needs
All meeting rooms are equipped with the following items. Please bring along your presentation files
in thumb drives only.
1 LCD Projector

1 Laser Pointer

1 Screen

1 Windows-based Laptop

5. Create a Backup Copy of Your Presentation
It is strongly recommended that you bring at least 2 copies of your presentation to the meeting for
backup purposes. Only thumb drives are acceptable.

6. Give Your Presentation
 Please be considerate to other speakers and audience by staying within your allotted time.
Session Chairs will hold you to the allotted time. This is essential for schedule performing.
 Please discuss the same material as reported in your abstract submission.
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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Presenter Guide – Poster
1. Poster Set-up, Viewing, and Removing Arrangement
Time

Poster Set-up

Poster Viewing

Poster Removing

18:00-20:00, Nov 4
20:00-21:00, Nov 5

10:15-12:15, Nov 6
20:00-21:00, Nov 6 (Optional)

12:15, Nov 7

Venue

2nd Floor, Hotel Lobby

2. Prepare Your Poster Each presenter is provided with a 2 meter high by 1 meter wide poster board. The presentationmust cover the same material as the abstract submission.
 Vertical Format in 900mm width × 1200 mm height is strongly suggested.
 The Abstract ID will be written at the top of the poster board in advance. Please use the correct
poster board.
 The Abstract title and author’s name should be placed prominently at the top of your poster toallow viewers to identify your abstract easily. Presenter’s Name must be underlined and in
Bold Letterings.
 Adhesive tapes and scissors will be provided. If you have special needs for your poster
presentation, please bring those supplies with you to the workshop.

5THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Session Schedule – Oral
05 November (Tuesday) AM: Meeting Room 4, 2/F
08:30-09:00 Opening Ceremony
Ceremony Chair: Jiancun GONG (NSSC, China)
O-01

Opening Address

08:30-08:45

Ji Wu (NSSC, China)

O-02

Opening Address

08:45-09:00

Toshio Iguchi (NICT, Japan)

09:00-09:30 Photo Shooting
09:30-12:00 Keynote Report
Chair: Huaning WANG (NAO, China)
K-01

NSSC Activities in Space Weather

09:30-09:50

Jiancun Gong (NSSC, China)

K-02

Scientific and Operational Activities of NICT Space Weather

09:50-10:10

Mamoru Ishii (NICT, Japan)

K-03

Space Weather Operations and Research Activities at the Korean Space Weather Center

10:10-10:30

Sunhak Hong (RRA, Korea)

K-04

International Actions to Improve Space Weather Preparedness

10:30-10:50

Terrance Onsager (NOAA SWPC, USA)

K-05

Space Weather Expert Group in the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of the UN

10:50-11:10

Takahiro Obara (Tohoku University, Japan)

K-06

Regional Ionospheric Monitoring and Forecasting Using GNSS Techniques

11:10-11:30

Zahra Bouya, Michael Terkildsen, Matthew Francis, and David Neudegg (IPS, Australia)

K-07

The Activity and Supporting Facility Related to Space Weather Program in Indonesia

11:30-11:50

Timbul Manik and Clara Y. Yatini (LAPAN, Indonesia)

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05 November (Tuesday) PM: Meeting Room 4, 2/F
13:30-15:30 Session 1: Space Weather Research & Exploration
Session Chair: Siqing Liu (NSSC, China)
RE-01

New Science Results from Van Allen Probes (aka Radiation Belt Storm Probes) Mission

13:30-13:45

Xinlin Li (University of Colorado, USA)

InvitedRE-02

The Research of Middle Upper Atmosphere by LIDAR Observations

13:45-14:00

Xiankang Dou (USTC, China)

InvitedRE-03

PC Index as a Proxy of the Solar Wind Energy that Entered and Accumulated in the

14:00-14:15

Magnetosphere

InvitedOleg Troshichev (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia)

RE-04

Precursors, Similar Cycles and Prospects for Cycles 24 and 25

14:15-14:30

Kristof Petrovay (Eötvös University, Hungary)

Invited

RE-05

Introduction to the 1m New Vacuum Solar Telescope

14:30-14:45

Zhong Liu (YNAO, China)

Invited

RE-06

Prediction Method for High-Energy Solar Energetic Particle Events

14:45-15:00

Yuki Kubo (NICT, Japan)

RE-07

Operational Relativistic Electron Flux Forecast at GEO Satellite

15:00-15:15

Tsutomu Nagatsuma, Kaori Sakaguchi, and Yasubumi Kubota (NICT, Japan)
Shinji Saito, Yoshizumi Miyoshi, and Kanako Seki (Nagoya University)

RE-08

Direct LET Measurement in Space

15:15-15:30

Hongfei Chen and Xiangqian Yu (Peking University, China)
Sipei Shao (Institute of Shan Dong Aerospace Technology, China)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

15:45-17:45 Session 2: Space Weather Forecasting & Modeling
Session Chair: Mamoru Ishii (NICT, Japan)
FM-01

Solar Eruptions: Numerical Simulation of the Coronal Plasma Dynamics Based on Photospheric

15:45-16:00

Magnetic Field Observations

InvitedJörg Büchner (Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Germany)

FM-02

Predicting the Onset of Coronal Mass Ejections

16:00-16:15

Terry Forbes (University of New Hampshire, USA)

Invited
FM-03

Questions that We are Facing in Forecasting CME's Arrival

16:15-16:30

Yuming Wang and Chenglong Shen (USTC, China)

InvitedFM-04

Present Status and Future Perspective of AE/Dst Index Derivation

16:30-16:45

Masahito Nose and Toshihiko Iyemori (Kyoto University, Japan)

InvitedAlexander Janzhura, and Oleg Troshichev (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia)
Juergen Matzka (DTU, Denmark)Gunnlaugur Bjornsson and Thorsteinn Saemundsson, (University of Iceland, Iceland)
Gerhard Schwarz (Geological Survey of Sweden, Sweden)
Yoshiki Ishii, (Kakioka Magnetic Observatory, JMA, Japan)
Pieter Kotze, and Herman Theron (South African National Space Agency, South Africa)

FM-05

Global Simulation of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interfaces: Magnetopause and Open-Closed

16:45-17:00

Boundary.

InvitedJianyong Lv (NUIST, China)

FM-06

A Three-Dimensional Asymmetric Magnetopause Model

17:00-17:15

Ruilin Lin, Siqing Liu, and Jiancun Gong (NSSC, China)
Xiaoxin Zhang (CMA, China)
Yongli Wang (NASA GSFC, USA)

FM-07

Ensemble Prediction model of Solar Proton Events associated with Solar Flares and Coronal

17:15-17:30

Mass Ejections
Xin Huang and Huaning Wang (NAO, China)

FM-08

Geomagnetic Indices Forecast Models in SEPC

17:30-17:45

Bingxian Luo, Siqing Liu, Qiuzhen Zhong, Jiancun Gong, and Yang Liu (NSSC, China)
Xinlin Li (University of Colorado, USA)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

06 November (Wednesday): Meeting Room 4, 2/F
08:00-10:00 Session 3: Space Weather-Research to Operations (R2O)
Session Chair: Jae-Woo Park (WeSpace, Korea)

RO-01

NICT Science Cloud: A New Approach to Regional Collaboration in Space Weather Research

08:00-08:15

and Operation

InvitedKen T. Murata and Hidenobu Watanabe (NICT, Japan)

RO-02

Space Weather Operations in China Meteorological Administration

08:15-08:30

Jingsong Wang and Xiaoxin Zhang (CMA, China)

Invited

RO-03

Operation of Two Solar Wind Prediction Models at Korean Space Weather Center: ENLIL and

08:30-08:45

IPS Tomography

InvitedJung-Hoon Kim, Saeho Yoo, and Ji-Hye Lee (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)
Jae-Hun Kim, Sunhak Hong, and Ki-Chang Yoon (KSEC, RRA, Korea)

RO-04

Space Anomalies and Space Weather: Relationship, Alarms and Countermeasure

08:45-09:00

Shaojie Qu, Ying Wang, Shanshan Qin, and Zhenbo Cai (China Academy of Space Technology, China)

Invited

RO-05

Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer, the Analog-to-Digital Converter for SWx Prediction

09:00-09:15

Seung Jun Oh, Sang Woo Lee, and Jeong-Deok Lee (SELab, Inc., Korea)

InvitedSunhak Hong, Ki-Chang Yoon, and Jae-Hun Kim (KSWC, RRA, Korea)

RO-06

The Development of Operational Models for Space Weather Forecasting at SEPC

09:15-09:30

Siqing Liu, Liqin Shi, Yanhong Chen, and Yanxia Cai (NSSC, China)

RO-07

The Discussion on Space Weather Forecast Verification

09:30-09:45

Qiuzhen Zhong, Fanghua Liu, and Yanmei Cui (NSSC, China)

RO-08

The Operational Space Weather Data System in NSSC, CAS

09:45-10:00

Yanxia Cai, Guorui Lu, Zhaofeng Chen, Liqin Shi, Siqing Liu, and Jiancun Gong (NSSC, China)

10:15-12:15

Poster Session: 2/F, Lobby
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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

07 November (Thursday) AM1: Meeting Room 4, 2/F
08:00-10:00 Session 4: The research on solar activity (First Half)
Session Chair: Yuki Kubo (NICT, Japan)

SA-01

Empirical Approach to Predicting Key Parameters for a Sunspot Number Cycle

08:00-08:15

Harjit Ahluwalia (University of New Mexico, USA)

Invited

SA-02

Solar Cycles Amplitudes

08:15-08:30

Robert Cameron (Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Germany)

InvitedSA-03

A New Sunspot Number: Diagnostics of Recent and Past Trends in Sunspot Statistics

08:30-08:45

Laure Lefevre and Frédéric Clette (Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium)

Invited

SA-04

Flowing Features in the CME/Flare Current Sheet Shown in GHz band

08:45-09:00

Jun Lin (YNAO, China)

Invited

SA-05

Research about the Real Time Flare Onset Detection Algorithm

09:00-09:15

Jiaben Lin, Juan Guo, and Yuanyong Deng (NAO, China)

SA-06

Sunspot Monitoring at Langkawi National Observatory

09:15-09:30

Farahana Kamarudin, Mohammad Redzuan Tahar, Nor Rafidah Saibaka, and Karzaman Ahmad (National Space
Agency of Malaysia, Malaysia)
Bambang Setiahadi, (Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Indonesia)

SA-07

The 24th Solar Cycle--A Very Small Cycle

09:30-09:45

Zhitao Li, Qiuzhen Zhong, and Juan Miao (NSSC, China)

10THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

07 November (Thursday) AM2: Meeting Room 4, 2/F
10:00-11:45 Session 4: The research on solar activity (Second Half)
Session Chair: Oleg Troshichev (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia)

SA-08

A New Concept of Solar Activity Forecast

10:00-10:15

Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Xinhua Dai, Xiaoshuai Zhu, Zhanle Du, Han He, and Yan Yan (NAO, China)

Invited

SA-09

Solar Cycle Predictions

10:15-10:30

Javaraiah Javaraiah (Indian Institute of Astrophysics, India)

Invited

SA-10

Some Results of Research on Solar Cycle Activity using Vietnamese Geomagnetic and

10:30-10:45

Ionospheric Data

InvitedHa Duyen Chau, Le Truong Thanh, and Nguyen Thanh Dung (Hanoi Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam)

SA-11

Maximum of Solar Cycle 24

10:45-11:00

Shinichi Watari and Takashi Watanabe (NICT, Japan)

SA-12

Solar Bi-dynamo Model

11:00-11:15

Zhanle Du (National Astronomical Observatories, China)

SA-13

Solar Observation Based on Atomic Frequency Discriminator

11:15-11:30

Yong Yang, Xuewu Cheng, Faquan Li, Yajuan Li, and Shunsheng Gong (Wuhan Institute of Physics andMathematics, China)
Wei Gong and Baoping Wang (Wuhan University, China)

SA-14

A Three Dimensional Self-similar Expansion model and 3 April 2010 Coronal Mass Ejection

11:30-11:45

Case Study
Jingjing Wang, Bingxian Luo, Siqing Liu, and Jiancun Gong (NSSC, China)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

07 November (Thursday) AM1：Meeting Room 1, 2/F
08:00-10:00 Session 5: Ionosphere and Thermosphere (First Half)
Session Chair: A.K. Upadhayaya (NPL, India)
IT-01

The Thailand Ionospheric and GNSS Data Center Project

08:00-08:15

Pornchai Supnithi, Prasert Kenpankho, and Athipu Mongkolkachit (King Mongkut’s Institute of Tech., Thailand)

InvitedTakuya Tsugawa, Tsutomu Nagatsuma and Takashi Maruyama (NICT, Japan)

IT-02

GPS Monitoring of Ionospheric Disturbances

08:15-08:30

Natalia Perevalova, Sergey Voeykov, Yury Yasyukevich, Ludmila Leonovich, Artem Ishin, Ilya Edemsky, andInvitedAnna Polyakova (The Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB-RAS, Russia)
Elvira Astafyeva (Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris)

IT-03

Development of a Whole Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupled Model for Space Weather Forecast

08:30-08:45

Hiroyuki Shinagawa and Hidekatsu Jin(NICT, Japan)

InvitedYasunobu Miyoshi (Kyushu University)
Hitoshi Fujiwara (Seikei University)

IT-04

A New Data Format to Promote International Exchange and Share of GNSS-TEC Data

08:45-09:00

Takuya Tsugawa, Michi Nishioka, and Mamoru Ishii (NICT, Japan)
Susumu Saito (Electronic Navigation Research Institute, Japan)
Akinori Saito (Kyoto University)
Yuichi Otsuka (Nagoya University)

IT-05

Modeling and Prediction of Global Ionospheric Delay with IGS Ground-based GNSS

09:00-09:15

Observations
Mingyuan Wang and Jinsong Ping (NAO, China)

IT-06

A Statistical Analysis of Occurrence Characteristics of Spread-F Irregularities over Indian region

09:15-09:30

Sumedha Gupta and A.K. Upadhayaya, MVSN Prasad (NPL, India)

IT-07

Ionospheric Response to CIR-induced Recurrent Geomagnetic Activity during the Declining

09:30-09:45

Phase of Solar Cycle 23
Yanhong Chen (NSSC, China)
Wenbin Wang and Alan Burns (NCAR HAO, USA)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

07 November (Thursday) AM2: Meeting Room 1, 2/F
10:00-11:45 Session 5: Ionosphere and Thermosphere (Second Half)
Session Chair: Zahra Bouya (IPS, Australia)
IT-08

Space Weather and Space Climate: Ionospheric F2- region Variability and Sudden Stratospheric

10:00-10:15

Warmings

InvitedA.K.Uadhayaya (NPL, India)

IT-09

An Investigation on Ionospheric Spread-F and Scintillation in Low Latitude Region

10:15-10:30

Jiankui Shi, Guojun Wang, and Zheng Wang (NSSC, China)

Invited
IT-10

Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling via Atmospheric Waves and its Possible Application to

10:30-10:45

Ionospheric Forecasting

InvitedZuo Xiao, Yongqiang Hao, and Donghe Zhang (Peking University, China)
Saiguan Xiao (NSSC, China)

IT-11

Variations of Thermospheric Density from CHAMP and GRACE

10:45-11:00

Jiuhou Lei (USTC, China)

Invited

IT-12

GPS/GLONASS Operation Quality Deterioration Caused by Solar and Geophysical Activity

11:00-11:15

Yury Yasyukevich, Artem Ishin, Eugene Kosogorov, and Gennadyi Smolkov (ISTP SB-RAS, Russia)
Elvira Astafyeva (Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris)
Vladislav Demyanov (Irkutsk State Railway University)

IT-13

Introduction of Newly Developing And Setting Tri-band Beacon Receivers For Ionosphere Study

11:15-11:30

in Eastern China
Jinsong Ping and Mingyuan Wang (NAO, China)Peng Guo, Weihua Wang, Rongbin Zhao, Nianchuan Jian (SHAO, China)
Zhenjie Hong (Wenzhou University, China)
Honglin Jin (Institute of Earthquake Prediction, China)
Zhen Wang (Xinjiang Observatory, China)

IT-14

Analyzing the Asymmetric Thermospheric/Ionospheric Response to External Driving

11:30-11:45

Ercha Aa (NSSC, China)
A.J.Ridley (University of Michigan, USA)
Donghe Zhang and Zuo Xiao (Peking University, China)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Session Schedule - Poster
Poster: Space Weather Research and Exploration

PRE-01Analysis of Particle Radiation Environment on Middle-Earth and Geosynchronous Orbits
Xiaochao Yang, Chunqing Wang, and Tao Jin (NSSC, China)

PRE-02

Downward Motions of Plasmoids in the CME-Flare Current Sheet Observed in the GHz Band
Guannan Gao, Min Wang, and Jun Lin (YNAO, China)
Ning Wu (Yunnan Normal University, China)
Chengming Tan (NAO, China)
Kliem Bernhard (University of Potsdam, Germany)
Yang Su (University of Graz, Austria)

PRE-03

Dramatic Decrease of the Relativistic Electron Fluxes in the Outer Radiation Belt during two
Geomagnetic Storms
Ying Xiong and Lun Xie (Peking University, China)

PRE-04

Acceleration of Electrons and Protons in Reconnecting Current Sheets Including Single orMultiple X-points
Yan Li and Jun Lin (YNAO, China)

PRE-05

Secondary Fast Reconnection with Radiation Cooling in Solar Chromosphere
Lei Ni (YNAO, China)

PRE-06

L-band Solar Radio Burst Events-A Potential Interference for Navigation Signal and its
Pre-alarm Method Research
Liang Dong (YNAO, China)

Poster: Space Weather Forecasting and Modeling

PFM-01The Analysis of Correlation between the Variation of the Absolute Solar Flux and Degradationin the SNR of the GPS Satellites Reception on Solar Radio Burst
Chul-hwan Lee, Seung-min Shin, and Soon-cheol Hong (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)

PFM-02Development of Long-term Solar Activity Forecast System using 2.8GHz Solar Radio Data of
Korea Space Weather Center (KSWC)
Heeseon Noh, Jung-Hoon Kim, and Saeho Yoo (SETsystem, Korea)

PFM-03Development of Automatic Detection Software of Type II/III Solar Radio Burst
Seung-min Shin, and Ji-Hye Lee (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)
Yong-sun Park (Seoul National University)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-04Global MHD Simulation of the Magnetospheric Response to Large and Sudden Enhancement of
the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure
Yasubumi Kubota, Mitsue Den, and Tsutomu Nagatsuma (NICT, Japan)
Ryuho Kataoka (National Institute of Polar Research)
Takashi Tanaka (Kyushu University)
Shigeru Fujita (Meteorological College)

PFM-05Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejections: Do We Need to Correct the Projection Effect in terms of
Velocity?
Chenglong Shen, Yuming Wang, Pinzhong Ye, Shui Wang (USTC, China)

PFM-06Classification of Ambiguity in Polarimetric CMEs Reconstruction
Xinghua Dai, Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Zhanle Du, Han He (NAO, China)

PFM-07

What Time will the Solar Proton Event Arrive?
Yanmei Cui (NSSC, China)

PFM-08Development of International Cooperation System for Analysis of WSA-ENLIL Model
Saeho Yoo, Seungmin Shin, and Chulhwan Lee (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)

PFM-09Fine Structures inside the Reconnecting Flare/CME CS
Zhixing Mei and Jun Lin (YNAO, China)

PFM-10Modeling of Energetic Electrons in Outer Radiation Belt
Lun Xie (Peking University, China)

Poster: Space Weather-Research to Operation (R2O)
PRO-01

Correlation study between Ensemble Parameter of CME Analysis and Estimated Arrival Time of
CME via ENLIL Model.
Ji Hye Lee, Jung Hoon Kim, and Soon Cheol Hong (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)

PRO-02The Possibility of Pre-alarm Health Events Based on Low Frequency Solar Observation during
the Hazard Space Weather Period
Xuesong Li, (First affiliated hospital of Kunming medical university, China)

PRO-03

SEPC Alert Scales for Major Space Weather Events
Juan Miao, Qiuzhen Zhong, and Siqing Liu (NSSC, China)

PRO-04Web-based Software for Space Environment Forecast Analysis
Zhaofeng Chen,Yanxia Cai, Liqing Shi,Siqing Liu (NSSC, China)

PRO-05The Renewal of ISES Website
Ki-Chang Yoon, Sunhak Hong, Jaehun Kim, JinWook Han, and YoungKyu Kim (KSWC, RRA, Korea)
Bowon Lee, Ilseok Kim, Ye-jin Han, and Jeong-Deok Lee (SELab Inc., Korea)
Terrance Onsager (NOAA SWPC, USA)David Boteler (IPS, Canada)

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-06

Virtual-Sun: A new-generation 3-D computer platform for space weather service
Han He, Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Zhanle Du, Yan Yan, Xiaoshuai Zhu, and Xinghua Dai (NAO, China)

PRO-07

Space Weather Concerns in Spacecraft design
Qi Huyan (China Academy of Space Technology, China)

Poster: The research on solar activity
PSA-01The Magnetic Field Extrapolation of AR11158
Xiaoshuai Zhu and Huaning Wang (NAO, China)

Poster: Ionosphere and Thermosphere
PIT-01

A Study of Solar X Class Flare Effects on the Ionosphere
Jeong-Heon Kim and Yongha Kim (Chungnam National University, Korea)
Geonhwa Jee, (Korea Polar Research Institute, Korea)
Seungjun Oh, (SELAB, Korea)
Young-Sil Kwak (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Korea)

PIT-02

Electron Density Profiles Derived from Obliquely Sounded Ionogram
Yongmin Lee, Jinho Jo, and Cheoloh Jeong (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Korea)

PIT-03

Nowcast and Forecast of GPS Total Electron Content in Japan
Michi Nishioka, Takuya Tsugawa, Takashi Maruyama, and Momoru Ishii (NICT, Japan)
Susumu Saito (Electronic Navigation Research Institute, Japan)

PIT-04TEC Variation and Comparison with NeQuick Model during Low Solar Activity Phase
Shengguo Wang (The Applied Meteorological Institute of Beijing, China)
J.K. Shi, G.J. Wang, and X. Wang (State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, China)

16

Oral Session Abstracts

K
Keynote Report
November 5 (Tuesday) 09:30-12:00
Meeting Room 4, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-01: NSSC Activities in Space Weather
Jiancun Gong (National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
gongjc@nssc.ac.cn

Abstract
National Space Science Center, CAS (NSSC) started space weather prediction in 1992. As theearliest organization in the space weather prediction field in China, NSSC has made much progressin space weather observation, model research and user service recently. The operational
ground-based Space Environment Monitoring Network in CAS was completely built in 2012 toacquire real-time solar, cosmic ray, geomagnetic field, ionosphere and middle and upper atmosphereobservations. NSSC is planning for future satellites projects including MIT, Kuafu l5 and SPORT to
improve the lack of space-based data in China. Some different research divisions are engaged inspace weather prediction research in NSSC. Space Environment Prediction Center has transformed
several operational space weather prediction models. The MHD model on solar eruption,
three-dimensional solar wind and coronal-interplanetary couple are developed in the State Key
Laboratory of Space weather. These years, there is a booming demand for space weather in China.
The wide range of space weather include military sectors, industrial sectors and universities.

18THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-02: Scientific and Operational Activities of NICT Space Weather
Mamoru ISHII (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan)
mishii@nict.go.jp
Keywords: Empirical Model, Observation
We have a long history of space weather activities; Solar radio has continuously observed at Hiraiso
observatory since 1952, and Ionosphere observation also since 1957, International Geophysical Year
(IGY). In addition, we start space weather forecast as routine work on 1988. Nowadays, space
weather information increase its importance for communication, broadcast and positioning satellite
operation, and HF communication. It is necessary for us to provide precise and useful information
for them as soon as possible. The significant differences between the space and usual weather
forecast is (1) observing points for space weather is sparse comparing with usual weather observing
points; and (2) many of space weather mechanism is still unknown. Developing simulation code isnecessary for compensate the former issue, and developing empirical models is for the later. Ourpresent targets are follows; (1) forecast of high energy particle distribution along the gestational orbit,and (2) forecast of ionospheric perturbation for precise satellite positioning. We have developed
observation technique, empirical model and numerical simulation code to achieve these goals. In
addition we have been discussing the forecast of sun and solar wind which is important for longer
lead time. I will present some scientific results in addition to our business activities.

19THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-03: Space Weather Operations and Research Activities at the Korean Space Weather Center
Sunhak Hong, Ki-Chang Yoon, Jae-Hun Kim, and Young-Kyu Kim (Korean Space Weather Center,
Korea)
sunhak.hong@gmail.com
Keywords: Space Weather Operation, ISES
Abstract
The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is anational institute which is the official source for space weather information for Korean Government
and also a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC
provides alert and forecast services for space weather events to minimize the impacts on satellites,
aviation, communications, navigation, power grids and other technological systems. KSWC also
develops new observation systems and prediction models and deploys them into operations.
In this talk, we will present KSWC's recent efforts to reinforce its service capabilities such as 1)
providing timely space weather information; 2) operating observation systems; 3) developing anddeploying new prediction models; and 4) preparing national response system against critical space
weather events.

20THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-04: International Actions to Improve Space Weather Preparedness
Terrance Onsager (NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, USA)terry.onsager@noaa.gov
Keywords: International Cooperation, Research to Operations
Abstract
The impacts of space weather are becoming increasingly important due to our growing reliance ontechnologies that either depend on space-based assets or are affected by space weather storms.
Consequently, national governments are recognizing space weather as an important risk area, andmitigation plans are being developed. At the same time, various international organizations areworking to coordinate the national efforts and to advance our understanding of the risks and required
actions. This presentation will focus on the activities of the International Space Environment Service,
the World Meteorological Organization, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, theInternational Civil Aviation Organization, and the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites.
Each of these organizations has a unique role in the space weather enterprise. As these space weather
efforts develop, it is essential that the space weather experts in every country work through theirrepresentatives in these organizations to ensure that effective progress is made in understanding therisks, developing accurate predictive services, maintaining the observing infrastructure, andachieving global coordination.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-05: Space Weather Expert Group in the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of
the United Nation (UNCOPUOS)
Takahiro Obara (PPARC, Tohoku University, Japan)
T.Obara@pparc.gp.tohoku.ac.jp
Keywords: Space Weather, United Nation Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
Abstract
The expert group for space weather was made under the Working Group on the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space.
Activities in the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of the United Nation in 2010 and T. Obara was assigned
a chair of the expert group. The objective of the expert group is to gather existing information on space weather and its
impacts on space activities, and also on the current practices, operating procedures and technical standards for mitigating
the effects of space weather phenomena on operational space systems. The expert group will provide this information to
the Working Group for inclusion in its report and propose voluntary guidelines to enhance the safety of space activities
and to reduce the risks from space weather phenomena to the long-term sustainability of space activities. The expert
group intends to carry out its work and finish them by the end of 2013. The expert group has considered the topics andmethods of work regarding the following scope, and has agreed to elaborate the consideration of these topics along thelines of what is indicated below: (a) Collection, sharing and dissemination of data, model and forecasts; The expert groupwill collect information on the current practices of States and organizations in terms of space weather observation and thevarious models and tools being used for space weather forecasts. The expert group has noted that this is the first attempt
to collect and consolidate information of this nature from around the world. Thus the information collected will be useful
information for all organizations related to space weather. (b) Capabilities to provide a comprehensive and sustainablenetwork of sources of key data in order to observe and measure phenomena related to space weather in real or near-realtime; It is important to form a network that continuously provides key data related to space weather in real time ornear-real time. Further discussion is necessary to identify which are the key data to provide. Collecting information on
data provision and the available networks will be the first step. (c) Open sharing of established practices and guidelines tomitigate the impact of space weather phenomena on operational space systems; Established practices to mitigate theimpact of space weather phenomena on space systems vary from State to State, and even basic standards for thedesigning of satellites are different. The expert group has noted that as the situation concerning the sharing of knowledge
and practices differs in each State, it may be difficult to compile information from all States. This expert group will work
toward improving standards by eventually expanding the sharing of related information. (d) Coordination among Stateson ground-based and space-based space weather observations in order to safeguard space activities; The expert group
recognizes the importance of coordination among States in space weather observations. The expert group will consider
the possible modalities of sharing data. The expert group will also consider the risks arising from space weather, with aview to proposing which types of key data ought to be shared in order to safeguard space activities from detrimental
effects of space weather

22

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-06: Regional Ionospheric Monitoring and Forecasting Using GNSS Techniques
Zahra Bouya, Michael Terkildsen, Matthew Francis, David Neudegg (IPS Radio & Space Services,
Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, Australia)
z.bouya@ips.gov.au
Keywords: Regional Modeling, Forecasting SCHA, EOF, TEC, GPS, Australia.
Abstract
This paper proposes a new approach for monitoring and forecasting the Total Electron Content(TEC) over Australia using Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) and Empirical Orthogonal
Function (EOF) techniques. The SCHA method was firstly used to estimate TEC at evenly
distributed grid points from GPS data collected from the Australian Regional GPS Network. The
SCHA model is based on longitudinal expansion in Fourier series and fractional Legendre
co-latitudinal functions over a spherical cap-like region including the Australian continent. This
harmonic expansion requires less coefficients to represent the fine structure of regional ionosphericfeatures than global Spherical Harmonic Analysis (SHA). EOF analysis was then used to decompose
the TEC dataset into a series of orthogonal Eigen functions (EOF base functions) and associatedcoefficients, Principal Components (PCs). The base function represents the variation in TEC withlatitude and longitude. The PCs represent the variation with time. The goal is to construct a regionalmodel using the leading statistically significant (and predictable) components of the regional TEC
and quantify the extent to which the reduced model can be used for the prediction on different timescales. Preliminary results show that modeling and forecasting on the lower-dimensional feature
space (EOFs and PCs) is simpler, more efficient than the original TEC datasets.

23THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

K-07: The Activity and Supporting Facility Related to Space Weather Program in Indonesia
Timbul Manik and Clara Y. Yatini (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Indonesia)
timbul@bdg.lapan.go.id
Keywords: Space Weather, Observation Network
Abstract
Space weather monitoring program is the program of monitoring, assessment, and forecasting of thespace environment, and describes the condition in space that affect earth and its technologicalsystems as well. As government institution that conducts space research in Indonesia, Space Science
Center of National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) conducts several activities inbuilding information about space weather, which is consist of integrated monitoring, research anddevelopment on changes of space environment including solar activity, geomagnetic variation, andionospheric variation, ionospheric modeling, as well as the impact on satellites orbit and earth
environment. In supporting to the activities, an observation network has been established inIndonesia, operates several optical and radio-based observation equipments located in Indonesia
archipelago. Lapan also conducts inter agency coordination for information of space weather, andalso cooperates with some foreign institutions in terms of development of observational equipments,
capacity buildings and data exchanges. Lapan is carrying out disseminations and public lectures
regarding space research actively. On 2012 Lapan successfully hosted the international programs
such as ISWI and MAGDAS School 2012, and recently ISYA 2013. In this paper, the current status
as well as the future plan of the space weather program in Indonesia will be presented.

24Oral Session Abstracts

RE
Space Environment Research andExploration
November 5 (Tuesday) 13:30-15:30
Meeting Room 4, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-01: New Science Results from Van Allen Probes (aka Radiation Belt Storm Probes)
MissionXinlin Li (University of Colorado, USA)
lix@lasp.colorado.edu
Keywords: Radiation Belt, Dynamics, Van Allen Probes
Abstract
NASA/Van Allen Probes have been up and running for over a year, great sciences results have beenobtained. Before showing some high lights of new science results from Van Allen Probes Mission, I
would like to put Van Allen Probes Mission into historic perspective: the science motivation,community support, and practicality for such an unprecedented mission.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-02: The Research of Middle Upper Atmosphere by LIDAR Observations
Xiankang Dou (University of Science and Technology of China, China)
dou@ustc.edu.cn
Abstract
This talk covers the recent progress on wind lidar development and scientific research on sodium
layer of our group in University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). In the recent years,
we have established three lidar systems, which are aimed at the the measurements for the upper
atmospheric wind fields, i.e., a 5-40 km mobile wind lidar, a 10-60 km ground-based wind lidar, anda 80-110 km narrow-band Na temperature and wind lidar. With the combination of these lidar
systems, we can give a continuous wind detection from ground to the mesopause region. The basic
feature, ability and the initial observational result are given in this talk. Based on the USTC sodium
lidar together with adjacent radars located at Lijiang, China (26N, 100E), an observational campaign
for the sodium layer was carried during March, 2012 to April, 2012. The thermospheric enhanced
sodium layers (TeSLs) were detected and the formation process associated with these layers was
suggested as an "Es - TeSLs (SSLs)" chain formed through the tidal wind shear mechanism. Further,based on the sodium lidars of the Chinese Meridian Project along 120E, the statistical features ofsporadic sodium layers (SSLs) and the TeSLs, as well as the relationship between SSLs/TeSLs andthe ionospheric sporadic-E (Es), at Beijing (40N, 116E), Hefei (31.8N, 117.3E), Wuhan (30.5N,
114.4E), and Haikou (19.5N, 109.1E) are shown in this talk.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-03: PC Index as a Proxy of the Solar Wind Energy that Entered and Accumulated in the
Magnetosphere
Oleg Troshichev (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia)
olegtro@aari.ru
Keywords: Polar Cap, Magnetic Activity, Space Weather Monitoring
Abstract
Space weather monitoring basically rests on data on the solar wind parameters measured outside of the magnetosphere. These
parameters are used to derive a hypothetic “coupling function”, which is designed to monitor the solar wind geoefficiency and,correspondingly, the state of magnetosphere (i.e.space weather). The coupling function is determined as one or other combination of
the solar wind parameters which provides the best correlation of “function” with the magnetosphere state, which is commonly
evaluated either by magnetic activity in the auroral zone (AE index) or intensity of magnetic storm (Dst index). A number of “coupling
functions” designed to monitor the solar wind geoefficiency is over 15 by now, but none of the “functions” is based on any
experimental evidences of physical processes determining the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. As a result, none of coupling
functions is universal, i.e. suitable for adequate evaluation of quite different states of magnetosphere affected by the permanently
varying solar wind. Estimation of the solar wind energy coming into the magnetosphere seems to be more straightforward and reliable
way to resolve the problem. We demonstrate that the PC index, characterizing the polar cap magnetic activity, appears as an adequate
indicator of the solar wind energy that entered into the magnetosphere this moment. Being calibrated for interplanetary electric field
EKL [Kan and Lee, 1979], the PC index varies in conformity with the solar wind geoefficiency irrespective of UT time, season andpoint of observation. On the other hand, the following experimental facts make it clear that the PC index is steadily related to such
space weather indicators, as AL and Dst indices: the substorm onsets are preceded and accompanied in all cases by the PC index
growth; the substorms and storms start only if the PC index reaches the threshold value ~ 1.5 mV/m; the substorm intensity and growthphase duration are determined by the PCgrowth rate; substorms start to decay as soon as the PC index firmly falls below 1 mV/m; thesubstorms occurring under the northward IMF conditions are related to PC ≥ 2 mV/m; the PC index adequately responds to impulses
in the solar wind dynamic pressure.
In addition, the magnetic storm duration and intensity are strictly controlled by such parameter as an accumulated-mean PCAM index(PCAM = ΣPC/ΔT, where values PC, summarized for running time of storm development ΔT, are divided by ΔT). Maximal
storm intensity (maximal depression) is observed when PCAM approaches to maximum, and storm proceeds to recovery phase as soon
as PCAM index ceases to grow. All these experimental facts are indicative for PC index as a proxy of the solar wind energy thatentered into the magnetosphere, and for PCAM index as a proxy of the solar wind energy that accumulates in the magnetosphere.
Therein lies the principal distinction of the PC index from various coupling functions (which are characteristics of the solar windarriving to magnetopause) and from AL and Dst indices (which are characteristics of the energy that realized in magnetosphere in formof substorm and magnetic storms. The PC index in this charge can be successfully used to inspect different magnetospheric processes
and to realize the quantitative space weather nowcasting and monitoring.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-04: Precursors, Similar Cycles and Prospects for Cycles 24 and 25
Kristof Petrovay (Eötvös University, Department of Astronomy, Budapest, Hungary)k.petrovay@astro.elte.hu
Keywords: Solar Cycle, Solar Activity
Abstract
About two years ago the smoothed sunspot number curve has reached a plateau around a level of 65
or so. There are still no signs of a clear decay phase so the possibility that the official peak of cycle
24 is still ahead of us cannot be discarded. After presenting the current situation I will review what
various forecasting methods predict for the ongoing cycle as well as for the upcoming cycle 25; how
the prediction made at or before the last minimum have fared; chances for an upcoming grandminimum; and how the current and expected solar activity trends will affect the terrestrial
environment.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-05: Introduction to the 1m New Vacuum Solar Telescope
Zhong Liu (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, China)
lz@ynao.ac.cn
Abstract
The science goal of NVST is to observe the sun in the range from 0.3 to 2.5 micron by highresolution imaging devices and spectrometers combining with a polarization analyzer. The sciencecases are mainly focus on the fine structure of solar magnetic field and its evolution. NVST is an
Alt-Az mounting telescope with 1200mm vacuum window and 980mm pure aperture. The focal
length at F3 is 45m. The FOV is about 3 arc minute. The main instruments include the Multi-channelHigh Resolution Imaging System, the Multi-bands Spectrometer, the High Dispersion Near-infrared
Spectrometer and the AO system.

30

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-06: Prediction Method for High-Energy Solar Energetic Particle Events
Yuki Kubo (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan)
kubo@nict.go.jp
Keywords: Solar Energetic Particles, Space Radiation Environments
Abstract
Solar energetic particle (SEP) event is one of the most important topics in space weather researchand prediction since SEPs cause severe radiation hazards such as satellite malfunctions, radiation
exposure for astronaut, high radiation doses of aircrew, and loss of communications by
high-frequency radio waves. Although our understandings of a nature of an SEP events has not beenenough, a lot of researchers have tried to predict SEP event occurrence. However, all of them are
empirical, statistical, or probabilistic predictions. A physics-based definitive prediction is quitedifficult in the present status. On the other hand, predicting a temporal evolution of SEP intensity isalso important, for example, to predict total radiation dose and to alert high radiation exposure level
for astronaut and aircrew. As a temporal evolution of SEP intensity is roughly determined by SEP
transport condition in interplanetary space, the temporal evolution of SEP intensity will be predictedby simulating interplanetary SEP transport. I focus this study on predicting high-energy SEP havingenergy over 100 MeV, which is highly important for astronaut radiation exposure. High-energy SEPs
are hardly accelerated in normal interplanetary shock wave, only accelerated at reconnection region
in solar flare and/or shock wave in solar corona, that is, high-energy SEPs are accelerated near theSun followed by transported to the Earth in interplanetary space. The interplanetary SEP transport
can be described by focused transport equation. In this study, I propose a new method to predict a
decay phase of high-energy SEP event by using numerical simulation of SEP transport andobservation data for initial phase of SEP event. The simulation is solving the focused transport
equation by using a set of stochastic differential equations. The result of the simulation is fit to an
initial phase of observed SEP event data obtained with GOES P6 channel by adjusting SEP injection
profile near the Sun. The decay phase of the SEP event is calculated by using the adjusted SEP
injection profile. This decay phase profile is truly prediction of the temporal evolution of the SEP
intensity. I introduce the newly proposed prediction method and some results in this presentation.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-07: Operational Relativistic Electron Flux Forecast at GEO Satellite
1

Tsutomu Nagatsuma, 1Kaori Sakaguchi, 1Yasubumi Kubota, 2Shinji Saito, 3Yoshizumi Miyoshi, and3
Kanako Seki
1

National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
Nagoya University, Japan
3
STEL, Nagoya University, Japantnagatsu@nict.go.jp
2

Keywords: Radiation Belt, Space Weather Forecast
Abstract
Dynamic changes of the Earth’s Radiation belt are one of the well-known but still unsolved issue ofsolar terrestrial physics. This is also important for the practical point of view because relativistic
electron can penetrate into a satellite body and causes deep dielectric charging. This phenomenon is
one of the major reasons of satellite anomaly. For prediction of space environment around GEO, we
will proceed to develop 1) near real time prediction model of relativistic electron environment, 2)high precision global MHD simulation in this 5-year term from 2011. As for the prediction model ofrelativistic electron environment, we plan to develop two types of models. One is near real time
prediction model based on the AR model that is a kind of the parametric analysis methods for thetime-series data. The product of this model is for daily operation of geosynchronous satellite. Basedon the product, we are currently operating web pages of relativistic electron forecast for space
weather users. The other is high time and spatial resolution numerical forecast model based on
combination between global MHD simulation code and particle tracing code and others. The productof this model is for post analysis of satellite anomalies. In this presentation, we will introduce current
status and future perspective of our project.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RE-08: Direct LET Measurement in Space1

Hongfei Chen, 1Xiangqian Yu, and 2Sipei Shao1

Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology, Peking University, Beijing, China
Institute of Shan Dong Aerospace Technology, China
hfchen@pku.edu.cn
2

Keywords: Linear Energy Transfer, Single Event Effect, Space Radiation
Abstract
The single event effect (SEE) is important to electronic devices in space environment. It can lead toabnormal of spacecraft. The linear energy transfer (LET) of ions is a commonly value to study SEE.
Using a thin detector is a valid and economic way to measure the LET directly in space since themeasurement of heavy ions is restricted in cost and technology. The thin detector as a front detector(D1) along with a back detector that indicates ions penetrating D1 constructs a LET telescope. The
thickness of D1 is 100 microns that may cause the highest LET boundary of some ions about four
MeVcm2/mg lower according to Geant4 analysis. Though the LET of lower energy ion is
non-uniform along the path, this error may be acceptable for engineering applications. The thicknessof D1 should be ideally towards 5 microns to improve accurate for researches.

33

Oral Session Abstracts

FMSpace Weather Forecasting andModeling
November 5 (Tuesday) 15:45-17:45
Meeting Room 4, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-01: Solar Eruptions: Numerical Simulation of the Coronal Plasma Dynamics Based on
Photospheric Magnetic Field Observations
Jörg Büchner (Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Germany)buechner@mps.mpg.de
Keywords: Solar Eruptions, CMEs, Numerical Simulation, Photospheric Magnetic Field Evolution
Abstract
For the construction of space weather forecast models it is important first to understand whatmechanism triggers solar storms, Flares, CME eruptions. We take typical photospheric magnetic
field observations observed prior to eruptions in combination with observed signatures of eruptions
like CMEs. Then we carried out numerical simulations of the coronal plasma starting with theextrapolated to the corona photospheric magnetic fields observed prior to the observed CMEeruptions to test hypotheses of what is causing their release.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-02: Predicting the Onset of Coronal Mass Ejections
Terry Forbes (University of New Hampshire, USA)terry.forbes@unh.edu
Keywords: Coronal Mass Ejection, Initiation Mechanisms
Abstract
At the present time there is no reliable way to predict a day ahead of time when a coronal massejection (CME) will occur. In order to make reliable predictions a much better understanding isneeded of the physical processes that lead to CMEs. Large solar eruptions, including those which
produce CMEs, are most likely the result of a rapid release of magnetic energy that has beenpreviously stored in the corona. A primary puzzle regarding such a process is the identity of themechanism that triggers the energy release and initiates the eruption. One possibility is the onset of
an ideal-MHD instability or, more generally, a sudden loss of an ideal-MHD equilibrium. A
mechanism of this type would easily account for the fact that large eruptions typically occur on the
Alfvén timescale in the corona. Another possibility is the onset of a resistive instability that involves
magnetic reconnection, for example, the tearing mode. Models of both types have recently beendeveloped as well as hybrid models that involve ideal and resistive processes acting in tandem.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-03: Questions that We are Facing in Forecasting CME's Arrival
Yuming Wang and Chenglong Shen (University of Science and Technology of China, China)
ymwang@ustc.edu.cn
Keywords: Coronal Mass Ejection, Space Weather
Abstract
Whether or when a CME will hit the Earth are the two key questions in forecasting CME's arrival.
For the first question, the size and propagation direction are two parameters determining if a CME
can hit the Earth. For the second question, the propagation direction and velocity are two factors
controlling its arrival time. Expansion, deflected propagation and acceleration of CMEs will makethese parameters, the size, direction and velocity, changed during their way to 1 AU. In practice, how
to get these parameters from 2D coronagraphic images are key questions that we need to solve before
we can make an accurate forecasting. Various models have been developed to improve the accuracyof forecasting. In this presentation, we will review these questions and show you what have beensolved and what still remain. Meanwhile, our recently statistical study of full halo CMEs during thesolar cycle 24 are presented.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-04: Present Status and Future Perspective of AE/Dst Index Derivation
1

Masahito Nose, 1Toshihiko Iyemori, 2Alexander Janzhura, 2Oleg Troshichev, 3Juergen Matzka,
4
Gunnlaugur Bjornsson, 4Thorsteinn Saemundsson, 5Gerhard Schwarz, 6Yoshiki Ishii, 7Pieter Kotze,
and 7Herman Theron
1

World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Kyoto University, Japan
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia
3
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
4
University of Iceland, Iceland
5
Geological Survey of Sweden, Sweden
6
Kakioka Magnetic Observatory, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
7
South African National Space Agency, South Africa
nose@kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp
2

Keywords: AE index, Dst index
Abstract
The AE index has been used to identify substorms or to estimate magnitude of ionospheric convection for more than
three decades. This index is derived from the horizontal component of the magnetic field variations from 12 stations inauroral/subauroral latitude (61-70 degrees geomagnetic latitude (GMLAT)). These stations are Abisko [operated by SGU,
Sweden], Dixon Island, Cape Chelyuskin, Tixie, Pebek [AARI, Russia], Barrow, College [USGS, USA], Yellowknife,
Fort Churchill, Sanikiluaq (Poste-de-la-Baleine) [CGS, Canada], Narsarsuaq [DTU Space, Denmark], and Leirvogur [U.
Iceland, Iceland]. Most of the stations are operated rather well and keep sending data to Kyoto University inquasi-real-time, which make it possible to provide the real-time AE index with science community. However, Russianstations had problems in operation since 1995. To solve the problems, we have been working in international partnershipproject, RapidMAG (Realtime Acquisition of Polar International Data from Magnetometers), which follows the
PURAES (Project for Upgrading Russian AE Stations) project. These projects succeeded in resuming observations inmost of Russian stations. At present, the provisional AE index is calculated by a few month delay, because it takes time
to receive definitive data or visually check artificial noises with baseline correction. The provisional AE index isavailable by digital data from our WWW page (http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp). The Dst index has been widely used to
identify geomagnetic disturbances in low- and mid-latitude, in particular, development of geomagnetic storms. This
index is derived from the horizontal component of the magnetic field variations from 4 stations in mid-latitude(|GMLAT|=21-34 degrees), which include Kakioka [KMO, Japan], Honolulu, San Juan [USGS, USA], and Hermanus[SANSA, South Africa]. Quasi-real-time data have been transferred from these observatories to Kyoto University withlittle problems, resulting in continuous derivation of the real-time Dst index and supply from our WWW page. The
provisional Dst index is calculated after the definitive data are released from all of stations, thus it delays about 1-1.5
years. In the talk, we will review the present status and future perspective of AE/Dst index derivation.

38

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-05: Global Simulation of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interfaces: Magnetopause andOpen-Closed Boundary
Jianyong Lv (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China)
jylu@nuist.edu.cn
Abstract
This presentation will introduce some of our new results on the global simulation of the solar
wind-magnetosphere interfaces (the magnetopause and open-closed boundary). Using the numerical
data from a physics-based global MHD model, we first construct a new function which is applicablefor approximating global magnetopause locations at both low and high magnetospheric latitudes.
This new model allows description of the cusp geometry as well as the azimuthal asymmetry, and isa function of interplanetary magnetic fields (BY and BZ), solar wind dynamic pressure (Pd), anddipole tilt. Model results agree well with empirical models from observation data, and effects of IMF
BY, BZ, Pd, and dipole tilt on the magnetopause configuration parameters are analyzed. Then we
look at a relatively unusual interval on 5th June 1998, where open/closed field line boundary can be
determined in the ionosphere using a combination of instruments during a period encompassing
northward to southward interplanetary field turning.
It is shown that when the innermagnetospheric module (Rice Convection model) is incorporated, the modeling both qualitatively
and quantitatively reproduces many elements of the studied interval prior to an observed substorm
onset. These studies show the global modeling is able to provide a valuable and reliable tool for
global magnetospheric topology, and suitable for the purpose of space weather.

39

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-06: A Three-Dimensional Asymmetric Magnetopause Model
1

Ruilin lin, 2Xiaoxin Zhang, 1Siqing Liu, 3Yongli Wang, 1Jiancun Gong

1

National Space Science Center, China
National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, China
3
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
linrl@nssc.ac.cn
2

Keywords: Magnetopause Model, Solar Wind
Abstract
Considering the asymmetries of the global structure of the magnetopause and indentations nearby thecusps, a new three asymmetric global model of the magnetopause is presented in this talk. Based on
the magnetopause crossings from Geotail, IMP8, Interball, TC1, THEMIS, Wind, Cluster, 14 Polar,
LANL, GOES and Hawkeye, and the corresponding upstream solar wind parameters from ACE,
Wind or OMNI, this new model is parameterized by solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetic
pressure (Dp+Bp), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz, and dipole tilt, and is constructed by theLevenberg-Marquardt method for nonlinear multi-parameter fitting step by step over the divided
regions from the global system point of view. It is demonstrated that this model can be used toquantitatively study how Dp+Bp compresses the magnetopause, how IMF Bz erodes themagnetopause, how large the asymmetries of the magnetopause are, and how the dipole tilt
influences the indentations and the asymmetries of the global magnetopause. In addition, theextrapolation for the distant tail magnetopause and for the extreme solar wind conditions is also
considered for modeling magnetopause size and shape. Comparison with previous models implies
that the standard deviation and the absolute deviation of the new model are obviously decreased. It isshown that this new model is not only appropriate to predict the magnetopause size and shape for thevarious solar wind conditions, but also can provide a reasonable estimation of the distant tailmagnetopause shape. It is implied that this new model can be used to predict the magnetopause sizeand shape not only for theoretical research and numerical simulation, but also for space weather
applications.

40THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-07: Ensemble Prediction Model of Solar Proton Events associated with Solar Flares andCoronal Mass Ejections
Xin Huang and Huaning Wang (National Astronomical Observatories, China)
xhuang@bao.ac.cn
Keywords: Solar Proton Events, Machine Learning
Abstract
An ensemble predictionmodel of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar
flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by
the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, thespeed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence ofSPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more
informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not veryclear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the fieldof machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known,SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build
two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the
outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The
ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs
achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

41

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

FM-08: Geomagnetic Indices Forecast Models in SEPC
1

Bingxian Luo, 1Siqing Liu, 1Qiuzhen Zhong, 1Jiancun Gong, 2Xinlin Li, and 1Yang Liu

1

National Space Science Center, China
University of Colorado, USA
luobx@nssc.ac.cn
2

Keywords: Geomagnetic Indices, Forecast
Abstract
Geomagnetic storms and substorms are severe space environment events which can lead to manyother geo-space environment disturbances such as the relativistic electron flux enhancement andupper atmosphere density enhancement. The forecast of geomagnetic indices is of important
operational requirement. In this presentation, the forecasting models on geomagnetic indices such as
Ap, Kp, Dst, and AU/AL/AE in SEPC/NSSC will be introduced. The Ap model, which wasdeveloped using auto-regressive method, gives the 27-day outlook of Ap using the historical Ap data
as model input. The Kp, Dst, and AU/AL/AE models forecast the near real time geomagnetic
condition using the ACE solar wind parameters. The Kp model was developed by neutral network
method and can forecast the Kp index 1-3.5 hours in advance The Dst model was developed basedon physical mechanism and forecasts the Dst index 2 hours in advance. The AU/AL/AE models
forecast the indices about 1 hour in advance, which reflects the auroral electrojet activities in poleregions.

42

Oral Session Abstracts

RO
Space Weather: Research to Operations(R2O)
November 6 (Wednesday) 08:00-10:00
Meeting Room 4, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-01: NICT Science Cloud: A new approach to regional collaboration in space weather
research and operation
Ken T. Murata and Hidenobu Watanabe (National Institute of Information and Communications
Technology, Japan)
ken.murata@nict.go.jp
Keywords: NICT Science Cloud, Virtual Laboratory
Abstract
This paper is to propose a cloud system for data-intensive science, which has been developed at
NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Japan. The NICT
science cloud is one of the cloud systems for scientists who are going to carry out their researchworks and operations for their own science including space weather. The science cloud is not for
simple uses. Many functions are expected to the science cloud; such as data standardization, datacollection and crawling, large and distributed data storage system, security and reliability, databaseand meta-database, data stewardship, long-term data preservation, data rescue and preservation, data
mining, parallel processing, data publication and provision, semantic web, 3D and 4D visualization,
out-reach and in-reach, and capacity buildings.
In the present talk, we introduce and demonstrate the efficiency of the science cloud, showing
several space weather research and operation achievement with this cloud system. Special attempt isaddressed on our future visions of regional collaborations on space weather research and operation.

44

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-02: Space Weather Operations in China Meteorological Administration
JingSong Wang and Xiaoxin Zhang (National Center for Space Weather, CMA)
xxzhang@cma.gov.cn
Keywords: Space Weather Operation, Observations, Warning and Forecast Service Products
Abstract
This presentation discusses the space weather activities in CMA in associated with the space weather
observation, forecast and services. The activities of space weather operation is conducted by the
National Center for space weather (NCSW) acting as a national level agency authorized by thenational Council, to carry out the space weather operation and provide monitoring, warning,
forecasting and services products for the different space weather users. The talk first introduces thecurrent status of space weather activities in CMA that focuses on establishing the abilities in space
weather observations, forecast and services. The observing facilities of space weather in CMA arethen discussed including the spaced-based payloads onboard FENGYUN meteorological satellites,
the ground-based instruments for monitoring the solar upper atmospheric and ionospheric activities,
as well as the GPS/MET network. This talk also briefly introduce the Meteorological Monitoring and
Forecasting Project and the Meridian Circle Program that design to build the observation networks
over China to monitor the space weather disasters for research and operation. The WMO related
space weather activities will be finally discussed in associated with defining the basic observing
requirements for space weather with the goal of integrating the space weather observations into the
WMO Information System.

45

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-03: Operation of Two Solar Wind Prediction Models at Korean Space Weather Center:
ENLIL and IPS Tomography
Jung-Hoon Kim, Sae-ho Yoo, and Ji-Hye Lee (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)
Jae-Hun Kim, Sunhak Hong, and Ki-Chang Yoon (KSEC, RRA, Korea)
kim@setsystem.co.kr
Keywords: Solar wind model, ENLIL IPS
Abstract
From 2013, two different forecasting models are currently in operation at Korean Space Weather
Center (KSWC) for the prediction of solar wind and CME. One is the WSA-ENLIL-CONE model
which is developed by Dr. Dusan Odstrcil (JMU). and the other is Time-dependent 3D IPS
Tomography model developed by Dr. Bernard Jackson (UCSD). Both models are works for theprediction of solar wind, especially the propagation of the CME. These two models works for thesame purpose but different techniques are used. One is MHY physics based, the other is Kinematic
model based on ground observation of IPS sources. As the KSWC start to run both models for
operational purpose from this year, we would like to introduce the status of the model operation andlessons learned from the both model. In addition, possible way of combine two models to provide
more realistic solar wind forecast are discussed.

46

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-04: Space Anomalies and Space Weather: Relationship, Alarms and Countermeasure
Shaojie Qu, Ying Wang, Shanshan Qin, and Zhenbo Cai (China Academy of Space Technology,
China)
qsj501@sina.com
Keywords: Space Environments, Space Weather, Anomalies, Alarm, Countermeasure
Abstract
Spacecrafts operating in orbits interact with space environments inevitably. The relationship between
space anomalies and space weather is analyzed here proceeding with spatial-temporal phenomenon
and inherent mechanism. Rules of alarms for space weather events are also discussed subsequently.
Finally the author introduces the countermeasures considered in design and lash-up scheme inoperating management.
Many of the numerous spacecraft anomalies were caused by space environments. Some anomalies
were commendably corresponding with space weather events for spatial and temporal characteristic.
Further more, the way and interacting mechanism that space environments affect spacecrafts wererelatively clear. For example, increasing of hot plasma intensity may lead spacecraft surface charging,and sola proton events can cause SEE probability ascend. Scientific and engineering departments
such as NOAA-SWPC and CAS-SEPC are all through developing monitoring, prediction and alarmsof space weather, which have effectively supported the design and management of spacecrafts.
Scientists have definited the criterion of some space weather events such as flux of proton withenergy large than 10 MeV exceeding 10 pfu for solar proton events, and Kp index reaching up to 5
for geomagnetic storm. Even so, the criterion for space weather events causing anomalies needs
further discussion because it must be considered synthetically by combining space science and actual
aerospace industry level. At the end of the paper, defending measures against space environment
effects are presented which are adopted by space engineering departments, also including treatments
for emergency in orbits.

47

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-05: Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer, the Analog-to-Digital Converter for SWx
Prediction
1

Seung Jun Oh, 2Sunhak Hong, 1Sang Woo Lee, 1Jeong-Deok Lee, 2Ki-Chang Yoon, and 2Jae-Hun
Kim
1

SELab, Inc., Korea
Korean Space Weather Center, Radio Research Agency, Korea
oh@spweather.com
2

Keywords: Solar active region, Flare prediction
Abstract
The Korean Space Weather Center, Radio Research Agency and SELab has developed the unmanned,
fully digitized, and real-time operational system for the sunspot and magnetic field classification,
which is named ASSA(Automatic Solar Sunspot Analyzer) The system has 3 functionalities of thedetection or classification: 1. Solar active region 2. filament 3. coronal hole, and it is now producing
the results of physical parameters with 1 hour cadence. The pipeline of procedures for ASSA system
include various kinds of image processing techniques including algorithms for intensity thresholding,morphological open/close, region growing and grouping based on the separation of each sunspot.
Afterwards, each identified sunspot group is further processed to determine its McIntosh and Wilson
magnetic class through estimation of quantitative parameters such as existence and maturity ofpenumbra, longitudinal coverage extent, compactness of sunspots aggregation, complexity ofmagnetic neutral lines, etc.. The basic theory of classification scheme is based on SIDC user guideon sunspot group classification. The resultant images and text data can be accessed at the official
website of Korean Space Weather Center (http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/assa).
Additionally, a standalone application program for ordinary users called ASSA GUI is being
distributed at its official website (http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/assa), with which users canexperience the same procedures of ASSA on their own computers. Since the derived physicalquantitative parameters are the inherited product from ASSA as a proxy of flare prediction, we areon the way to apply the algorithms to the past archive of SOHO MDI images during 1996-2011.

48

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-06: The Development of Operational Models for Space Weather Forecasting at SEPC

Siqing Liu, Liqin Shi, Yanhong Chen and Yanxia Cai (National Space Science Center, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, China)liusq@nssc.ac.cn
Abstract
The development of operational models is very important for improving the capabilities of space
weather forecasting. Although a number of research models have been developed, their utilization in
space weather forecasting is still limited. Currently, the transitioning of research models to
operational models is still a difficult work. In this presentation, the differences between researchmodels and operational models are analyzed, based on the experience of space weather forecasting
services and application of models at SEPC. Two ways are recommended for developing operationalmodels: one is transition of research models, the other is developing operational models directly
according to space weather forecasting needs. Furthermore, the requirements of research models forpotential transitions to operational models and the basic transitioning process are discussed. A
platform for model transitioning and some operational forecasting models developed and used at
SEPC are also introduced in the presentation.

49

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-07: The Discussion on Space Weather Forecast Verification
Qiuzhen Zhong, Fanghua Liu, Yanmei Cui (National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China)
zhongqz@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Forecast Verification, Space Weather
Abstract
If we take the term forecast to mean a prediction of the future space weather, then forecast
verification is the process of assessing the quality of a forecast. The forecast is compared, or verified,against a corresponding observation of what actually occurred, or some good estimate of the true
outcome. The verification can be qualitative or quantitative. In either case it should give us
information about the nature of the forecast errors. This report introduced the world's major spaceenvironment forecast organization. There are many categories of forecasts, each of which calls fordifferent methods of verification, such as space weather event probability forecast, solar activity
index and geomagnetic activity index forecast. We compare the verification methods from thedifferent forecasting organization. At last, we discuss the suited verification methods for different
forecast products.

50

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

RO-08: The Operational Space Weather Data System in NSSC, CAS
Yanxia Cai, Lu Guorui, Chen Zhaofeng, Shi Liqin, Liu Siqing, Gong Jiancun (National Space
Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
caiyx@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Space Weather Data System, Observing Network
Abstract
Data is the driver of an integrated space weather system from monitor to service. Building theoperational space weather data system is very important. Working 24/7, running automatically,collecting and providing real-time, accurate and stable data are the characteristics of operational datasystem. Under this background, an associated project, which is funded by National High-tech R&D
Program of China (863 Program), is initiated in September 2011, leaded by National Space Science
Center (NSSC) and joined by other 7 institutes from Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The
purpose of the project is to achieve an active, synergistic, interagency data system which provides
data base for operational weather service. In the project, a set of domestic ground-based space
weather observing instruments located all around the whole country were integrated, and aground-based space weather observing network was built, consisting of 39 instruments formonitoring five aspects of the space weather: Sun/Solar, cosmic rays, geomagnetic field, ionosphere,
and the upper atmosphere, at 17 monitoring stations. The different data of particular space weather
environmental parameters from the observing network and international website, standardized at
aspects of sampling frequency, format, and file naming rules as well as transport protocols, wasautomatically collected and processed in NSSC with the daily dataset size of around 25 GB. It is thefirst operational data system in China that has functions of space weather monitoring and datatransferring, pretreatment, and analyzing. Therefore, data from the system can be utilized for space
weather modeling and relevant forecasting applications, such as Kp index modeling, Solar Proton
Event Warning, Geomagnetic Storms warning and so on

51

Oral Session Abstracts

SA
The Research on Solar Cycle Activity
November 7 (Thursday) 08:00-11:45
Meeting Room 4, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-01: Empirical Approach to Predicting Key Parameters for a Sunspot Number Cycle
H.S. Ahluwalia (University of New Mexico, USA)hsa@unm.edu
Keywords: Sunspot Cycle Prediction
Abstract
The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot numbers (SSNs) at peak (Rmax) andthe rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic indices gave the best
prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20-24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking
three-cycle quasiperiodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for
two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP, if it
endures in the 21st century we shall enter a Dalton-like Grand minima. Earth was cooler then. The
current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 activity is described and discussed.

53

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-02: Solar Cycles Amplitudes
Robert Cameron (Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany)cameron@mps.mpg.de
Keywords: Solar Cycle, Amplitudes
Abstract
Observations constrain both the systematic non-linear and random causes of the variation in thestrengths of different cycles. Here we outline the major effects and their physical causes. We willthen discuss predictions and their associated error bars.

.
54

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-03: A New Sunspot Number: Diagnostics of Recent and Past Trends in Sunspot Statistics.
Laure Lefevre, Frédéric Clette (Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium)
laure.lefevre@oma.be
Keywords: Sunspots Diagnostics, Long-term
Abstract
The international sunspot number (often referred to as the SSN series), based on visual sunspot
counts, is widely used as the main reference index characterizing the long-term evolution of solar
activity over time-scales of decades to centuries. It has been maintained at the World Data Center(WDC) in Brussels, since its transition from Zürich in 1981. Given the recent unexpected changes incycles 23 and 24, it has become even more important to better understand the historical evolution in
the production of this prime index and to assess the long-term stability of its absolute scale.
Therefore, we first review the properties of this series, the past and present calculation methods aswell as the relation between the sunspot number and other solar indices and standard fluxes available
over the last decades. Using such comparisons, a few possible disruptions and biases have recently
been identified in this historical sunspot series over the 19th and 20th century, with magnitudes of 10
to 20%. We report recent progresses in the identification of possible causes and we outline theproposed corrections to the standard sunspot number based on those diagnostics. By providing a
400-year perspective, the sunspot index also helps us to better put the recent anomalies of the cycle
23-24 transition in a secular perspective. We will consider here how recent global trends in detailed
sunspot properties, like the decline of the average spot core magnetic field (Penn-Livingston effect)
or a scale-dependent small-spot deficit, could explain the reported divergence between the sunspot
number and several other solar activity indices, like the F10.7cm radio flux. We interpret the current
change in the sunspot number as a genuine evolution in the sunspot production. With cycle 24, theSun is apparently returning to an average activity regime that prevailed during most of the last 300
years, before the tight succession of 5 strong cycles marking the last 60 years. Given this unique"grand-maximum" episode and the observed scale-dependent changes in sunspots, the current solar
proxies may need to be re-calibrated to match past weaker solar cycles, using more than a simple
linear rescaling. We conclude on the prospects of an end-to-end correction of the original pre-1981
Zürich SSN series as well as an extension of the sunspot number record, with the extraction ofdetailed sunspot information from archives of past sunspot drawings and imagery, and inevitably the
future transition to CCD-based indices. Early applications support e.g. the existence of a deficit of
the smallest spots during cycle 23, as well as a strongly reduced difference between the high activityof the late 20th century and earlier historical levels. This updated SSN will thus mark a major step
forward in a long history and will likely lead to significant adjustments and revisions in various
models, indices and interpretations.
55THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-04: Flowing Features in the CME/Flare Current Sheet Shown in GHz band
Jun Lin (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, China)
jlin@ynao.ac.cn
Abstract:
We investigate the spectral fine structure of a solar radio burst observed by the Solar Broadband
Radio Spectrometer (SBRS) at the Huairou Solar Observing Station in a CME/flare event on
December 1, 2004. The data display various patterns of plasma motions, suggestive of the interaction
between sunward moving plasmoids and the flare loop system during the impulsive phase of theevent. By comparing with the observational consequences of the standard model of two-ribbon flares,
we identify several typical motions that are expected to occur in the reconnecting current sheet and in
the cusp region on top of the flare loops. These include the sunward motion of plasma onreconnected field lines in the CME/flare current sheet, the reconnection outflow and embedded
plasmoids, emission stripes of zero frequency drift as an indicator of the termination shock on theloop top, and the growth of the flare loop system together with the shrinkage of individual flare loops.
In addition to the radio data, we also studied data in white-light, H, EUV, soft and hard X-rays.
These data show a fast CME at a speed exceeding 800 km/s and the separation of footpoints of theflare loops in agreement with the height of the flare loop system estimated from the radio data.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-05: Research about the Real Time Flare Onset Detection Algorithm
Jiaben Lin, Juan Guo, and Yuanyong Deng (National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academyof Sciences, China)
jiaben.lin@163.com
Keywords: Flare Intelligent Detection, Space Weather
Abstract
Flare is one of the most explosive activities on the solar surface and it’s believed the source of manyfierce space weather events. Detecting the onset of the H-alpha flare and alert relative staffs are very
important. The Full-disk H-alpha telescope in Huairou Solar Observing Station could get highresolution data of the solar chromosphere. According to the features of the full disk H-alpha image,
we developed a real time flare on-set detection method for it. During the first week of test
observation, our system captured all the two flares above C5.0, the onset time from our system isclose to the GOES X-Ray’s results, and the alert message were sent in 20 seconds.

57

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-06: Sunspot Monitoring at Langkawi National Observatory
1

Farahana Kamarudin, 1Mohammad Redzuan Tahar, 1Nor Rafidah Saibaka, 1Karzaman Ahmad, and2
Bambang Setiahadi
1

Langkawi National Observatory, National Space Agency of Malaysia (ANGKASA)
Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN)
farahana@angkasa.gov.my2

Keywords: Relative Sunspot Number (RSN), Langkawi National Observatory (LNO)
Abstract
The atmosphere of sun is full with hot gases, charged particle and magnetic fields. Earth is affected
not only by light from the sun but also by the ejection of the solar wind and huge masses of energetic
particles that buffet Earth’s magnetosphere. Variations in the Sun’s cycle also influence Earth’s
weather. Langkawi National Observatory (LNO) observed the sunspot through the use of TMB 152
and a SBIG STL4020M camera. This paper will discuss the consistency between RSN values obtainthrough LNO digital images but goes through the same sunspot counting as determined by SIDC
visual sunspot method.

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SA-07: The 24th Solar Cycle--A Very Small Cycle
Zhitao Li, Qiuzhen Zhong, and Juan Miao (National Space Science Center, China)lztlzt579@163.com
Keywords: Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area
Abstract
Base on several fields, such as sunspot numbers, spotless days, sunspot areas and solar 10.7 cm flux,
we can see that the 24th solar cycle is very small cycle. Does the solar activity reach to the maximumof 24th solar cycle by now? From different space environment events, compared with last several
cycles, how infrequent is the 24th solar cycle? What about the activity of 24th solar cycle in the next
few years?

59THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-08: A New Concept of Solar Activity Forecast
Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Xinhua Dai, Xiaoshuai Zhu, Zhanle Du, Han He, and Yan Yan(National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
hnwang@nao.ccas.cn
Keywords: Solar Activity, Solar Eruption
Abstract
It is well known that the information of solar eruptions impacting on the Earth can hardly beprovided with the normal solar activity forecast focusing on probability of solar flares and solar
energetic particle events. A new concept of solar activity forecast is introduced in which the erupting
frequency and the main attack direction of major solar eruptions will be considered.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-09: Solar Cycle Predictions
Javaraiah Javaraiah (Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bengaluru-560034, India)
jj@iiap.res.in
Keywords: Solar Activity, Solar Cycle
Abstract
It is important to predict the level of solar activity well advance, because solar activity affects us.
While solar flares and coronal mass ejections pose a serious hazard to astronauts, satellites, polar
air-traffic, electric power grids and telecommunications facilities on short time-scales ranging fromhours to days, the solar radioactive output affects planetary and global climate on much longer
time-scales (from decades to stellar evolutionary time-scales). In addition, the prediction may also
provide an important clue for understanding the basic mechanism of solar cycle, i.e. models of the
dynamo are validated by their ability to predict solar activity over short and long time-scales. Many
attempts have been made to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A majority of them are based on
different precursors. The basic principle behind the method of precursors is that the solar magnetic
field persists for quite some time and hence a cycle will have a relationship with the one or two
preceding cycles. The magnetic fields at different heliographic latitudes during different
time-intervals of a solar cycle might contribute (/related) to the activity at the same or different
heliographic latitudes during its following cycle(s). These different latitude bands of activity could
produce correlations useful in predictions. With this hypothesis we analyzed a large set of sunspot
group data and predicted the amplitudes of solar cycles 24 and 25 (qualitatively). In the proposed
invited report the summary of our work and the analysis of our method will be presented, and thepredictions of cycle 24 will be updated.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-10: Some Results of Research on Solar Cycle Activity using Vietnamese Geomagnetic andIonospheric Date
Ha Duyen Chau, Le Truong Thanh, and Nguyen Thanh Dung (Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam)
hdchauigp@yahoo.com
Keywords: Solar Cycle Activity, Geomagnetic and Ionospheric Data Collaboration, Space Weather
Studying and Forecasting
Abstract
Vietnam maintains a network of four magnetic observatories: Chapa, installed from 1957, Phu Thuy, from 1967, Da Lat,created in 1981 and Bac Lieu, built from 1988 in the magnetic equator region, and two ionospheric stations: one in Phu
Thuy from 1961, and the other in Bac Lieu from 2005. From 1995, thanks to the cooperation with the French CNRS, Phu
Thuy has become a member of INTERMAGNET (International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network) program.
Also, from May 2013, the Intermagnet Executive Council has certified that Da Lat observatory is recognized as a fullparticipating member of INTERMAGNET. From 1998, thanks to the cooperation with the SERC (Space Environment
Research Center), Kyushu University, Japan, Bac Lieu has become a member of MAGDAS (MAGnetic Data Acqusition
System) network. From 2005, thanks to the cooperation with the NICT (National Institute of Information andTechnology) of Japan, the ionosondes at Phu Thuy and Bac Lieu have become the members of the SEALION (SouthEast
Asia Low-latitude IOnospheric Network) program. The data from these observatories were and are very useful to thespace weather researches in Vietnam and in the World. The integration of these data into the scientific community ismore active, when Vietnam become a member of the Asia-Oceania Space Weather Alliance-AOSWA in the beginning of
2012. In Vietnam, the study of the space weather has a special features due to the existence of the Equatorial ElectroJet,
which passes through the Southern part of Vietnam territory, making the geomagnetic–ionospheric field to bear the
special characteristics in comparison with the others regions of the World. From the research on these data, one has
obtained important results on the normal magnetic fields, secular variation, magnetic variations, Equatorial ElectroJet,
Equatorial Anomaly, solar eclipse, magnetic impulsations, ionosphere, plasma bubble, especially magnetic storms andtheir impacts on the high electric power transmission lines 500-220kV , petrol and gas pipe-lines… in Vietnam. In thispresentation, we present some results of research on the solar cycle activity using these geomagnetic and ionospheric data.
From the studies using the geomagnetic data of Vietnam from 1957, the first International Geophysical Year, andionospheric ones from 1962, one shows that many features of geomagnetic and ionospheric fields manifest the 11-year
solar cycle activity, such as diurnal solar quiet Sq variation, Equatorial Electrojet, equatorial counter electrojet, especiallymagnetic storms, and various parameters of the ionosphere, like critical frequencies of ionosphere’s various layers foF2,
foF1, foE, fmin, foEs…, theirs apparent heights h’Es, h’E, h’F, h’F2… Also, one shows that the strong Geomagnetic
Induced Currents GIC obtained in the power line 500-220kV in Vietnam appeared almost in the maximum solar activity(2001-2002). We discuss also about the collaboration of Vietnam with the other members of AOSWA on space weather
studying and forecasting, in the frame of this AOSWA.

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SA-11: Maximum of Solar Cycle 24
Shinichi Watari and Takashi Watanabe (National Institute of Information and Communications
Technology, Japan)
watari@nict.go.jp
Keywords: Solar Cycle, Sunspot Number
Abstract
It is important for space weather to forecast of amplitude of a solar cycle because occurrence
numbers of solar flares and geomagnetic storms depend on solar activity level. Signatures ofdeclining or minimum phase of the cycle 23 suggests lower maximum of cycle 24. For example,
there are 265 no-sunspot days in 2008. Present maximum sunspot number of cycle 24 is 66.9
recorded in February, 2012 according to monthly smoothed sunspot number by the SIDC. This value
is smaller one since cycle 14. Yearly average of geomagnetic aa-index in 2012 is 16.38 and this value
is also small comparing with resent several cycles. However, solar proton events with flux exceeding
6,000 pfu occurred in January and March, 2012 and air lines enrooted from polar route to lower
latitude at these moments. Minimum of cycle 23 occurred between November and December in 2008
according to the monthly smoothed sunspot number. Rise time of cycle 24 is 39 months from theminimum to the maximum if we assume that the maximum occurred in February, 2012. There is apositive correlation between rise time and maximum sunspot number. Cycles with shorter rise time
usually tend to have larger maximum sunspot number. On cycle 24, the rise time is shortercomparing with past cycles although maximum sunspot number is small. We will report the result of
our statistical analysis on activity of cycle 24.

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SA-12: Solar Bi-dynamo Model
Zhanle Du (National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
zldu@nao.cas.cn
Keywords: Sun: dynamo, Solar cycle, Sunspots, Solar Flares
Abstract
The solar cycle is found to be governed substantially by a bi-dynamo model forming two stochastic
processes depicted by a bimodal Gaussian function with a time gap of about two years. The first one
describes the usual properties of the cycle dominated by the current solar dynamo models, and thesecond one occurs either in the rising phase as a short-weak explosive perturbation or in the
declining phase as a long stochastic perturbation. We find that the secondary process is closely
associated with complicated sunspot groups. In addition, the recent cycles 23 and 24 are found tohave unusual shorter decay times and shorter durations but longer rise times for major flares (M, X)
than the past cycles 21 and 22.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-13: Solar Observation Based on Atomic Frequency Discriminator
1

Yong Yang, 1Xuewu Cheng, 1Faquan Li, 2Wei Gong, 2Baoping Wang, 1Yajuan Li, and 1ShunshengGong
1

Wuhan Institute of Physics and Mathematics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Wuhan University, China
cxw@wipm.ac.cn
2

Keywords: Solar Observation, Dopplergram Atomic Filter
Abstract
The atomic frequency discriminator (AFD) is of ultra narrow bandwidth optical frequency
discriminator with high stability and wide field of view. The solar observation based on AFD offeredhigh spectral resolution images for solar physics and space weather. In this paper, the AFD and its
application in solar observation were reported. The theory and experimental technology of AFD was
discussed. Then a solar telescope with a special sodium AFD was designed to observe solar
chromospheres and Doppler image. And the active region structures in chromosphere were observed
by solar telescope with the atomic discriminator. The preliminary observational results ofchromosphere were analyzed

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-14: A Three Dimensional Self-similar Expansion Model and 3 April 2010 Coronal Mass
Ejection Case Study
Jingjing Wang, Bingxian Luo, Siqing Liu, and Jiancun Gong (National Space Science Center,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
wjjkey@hotmail.com
Keywords: Coronal Mass Ejections, STEREO
Abstract
Various models that can forecast the speed, direction, width of the interplanetary coronal massejections (ICME) in the ecliptic plane from outside the Sun-Earth line have been developed based on
the observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on board a single spacecraft of the Solar
TErrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), such as Fixed-Φ (FΦ), Harmonic-Mean (HM), andSelf-Similar Expansion (SSE) fitting. SSE fitting assumes that the ICME front is a self-similar
expansion circle with a fixed propagation direction and angular width. The propagation direction,
speed, and angular width on a selected position angle can be calculated based on the time-elongation
profile of a given position angle constructed by the HI observation. FΦ and HM fitting can be
regarded as particular cases of SSE fitting with 0 degree and 180 degree angular width, respectively.
In this paper, we further develop the SSE fitting to three dimensions (3D-SSE) by fitting thetime-elongation profiles constructed from a collection of position angles (PAs) fromsingle-spacecraft with respect to the former methods based on only one position angle. This enables
us to forecast the propagation parameters of ICME in three dimensional space. Using the 3D-SSE
fitting, assuming that the ICME might be slow-varying in structure and propagation direction but canstill be regarded as a self-similar expansion sphere in a short time period, the variations of 3Dparameters of the ICME such as the direction and angular half-width can be fitted and studied. By
this method, the 3 April 2010 CME is investigated and the propagation should be called practicallyradial shown within HI's field-of-view.

66Oral Session Abstracts

IT
The Research on Ionosphere andThermosphere
November 7 (Thursday) 08:00-11:45
Meeting Room 1, 2/F

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-01: The Thailand Ionospheric and GNSS Data Center Project1

Pornchai Supnithi, 1Prasert Kenpankho, 1Athipu Mongkolkachit, 2Takuya Tsugawa, 2Tsutomu
Nagatsuma, 2Takashi Maruyama
1

King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Thailand
National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
pornchai.supnithi@gmail.com
2

Keywords: GPS TEC, Ionosphere
Abstract
This work presents the setup of ionospheric and GNSS monitoring networks and the efforts to create
a GNSS and ionospheric database in Thailand. These data are important for the study of ionosphereand its effects on the space weather, aeronautical navigation and satellite communication. At present,
NICT and KMITL have cooperated to implement GNSS receivers at several provinces of Thailand
such as Chiangmai, Chumphon, Bangkok and Phuket. In addition, other GNSS receivers in 4 more
provinces have been added. These data are now sent the KMITL Data Center. Current research
efforts are the analysis of bottomside ionospheric parameters based on ionosonde measurements, thedelay gradient analysis for the aeronautical applications as well as 2-D TEC maps. In thepresentation, we will discuss some of the research results utilizing the collected data.

68THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-02: GPS Monitoring of Ionospheric Disturbances
1

Natalia Perevalova, 1Sergey Voeykov, 1Yury Yasyukevich, 2Elvira Astafyeva, 1Ludmila Leonovich,
1
Artem Ishin, 1Ilya Edemsky, and 1Anna Polyakova
1
The Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences,
Russia2
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France
pereval@iszf.irk.ru
Keywords: GPS TEC, Ionospheric Disturbances
Abstract
The global navigation satellite system GPS and ground-based networks of GPS receivers constitute a
powerful tool for remote diagnostics of the ionosphere and ionospheric disturbances. The Institute ofSolar-Terrestrial Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences began using GPS
signals for studying ionospheric disturbances in 1996. We have developed a new technology for
global detection (GLOBDET) of ionospheric disturbances on the basis of GPS phase measurementsof total electron content (TEC). During 15 years, we have investigated a large number of ionosphericdisturbances from different sources: magnetic storms, solar eclipses and solar flares, solar terminator,
earthquakes, and tropical cyclones. Our most interesting results are presented in this report. Analysesof dynamics of TEC disturbances during geomagnetic storms allowed us to reveal two types of TEC
disturbances appearing in an auroral zone, to determine characteristics of storm induced large-scale
TEC waves, and to show that these waves are followed by an increase in intensity of smaller-scale
TEC irregularities. A coherent integration technique provides assured detection of ionospheric
response to strong (X-class) and weak (C-class) solar flares. Ionospheric response intensity wasdemonstrated to depend on a class of a flare, its emission spectrum, and on its position on the Sun's
disk. The analysis of ionospheric effects of the solar terminator revealed that there are disturbances
caused by terminator passage through a region at a magnetic conjugated point. Studies of TEC
responses to more than 25 earthquakes of various intensities over a period of 1999–2012 revealed athreshold magnitude of Mw~6.5 below which no earthquake-induced significant TEC wave
disturbances are observed. After severe earthquakes (Mw>7), we detected several modes of TEC
disturbances and noted different behavior of mode propagation in various directions from an
epicenter. It was found that over a tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory there is a region of ionosphericplasma irregularities which is formed when the cyclone becomes a hurricane. The amplitude of anionospheric response to a TC is subject to the height distribution of meteorological parameters over
the TC. We have developed a method for determining global electron content (GEC). GEC can beused as a state index of near-Earth space.
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IT-03: Development of a Whole Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupled Model for Space Weather
Forecast
1

Hiroyuki Shinagawa, 1Hidekatsu Jin, 2Yasunobu Miyoshi, 3Hitoshi Fujiwara
1
National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
2
Kyushu University, Japan
3
Seikei University, Japansinagawa@nict.go.jp
Keywords: Atmosphere, Ionosphere, Model
Abstract
Space near the Earth, called geospace, is a highly complex system, consisting of the solar wind, themagnetosphere, the ionosphere, and the neutral atmosphere. Those regions have different physicalcharacteristics with different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the magnetosphere, theionosphere, and the neutral atmosphere are strongly coupled with each other, and interaction between
the regions is nonlinear and extremely complicated. Even within each region, there are strong
interactions between physical processes with different temporal and spatial scales. Furthermore, thegeospace environment significantly varies as electromagnetic energy and particles from the sun vary.
In order to quantitatively understand such a complicated system, it is necessary to model the entire
region by including all fundamental processes self-consistently. Various types of global numericalmodels of geospace have been constructed and used to study space weather disturbances in many
institutions in the world. At the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology(NICT) of Japan, a solar wind model, magnetosphere model, and ionosphere-thermosphere model
were constructed. However, recent observations have revealed that atmospheric waves generated in
the lower atmosphere significantly influence the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, and possibly themagnetosphere. In order to quantitatively study the effects of the lower atmosphere on theionosphere, we have recently developed an atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model, which includes
the whole neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. The model is called GAIA (Ground-to-topsidemodel of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy). Using GAIA, relationship between theionosphere and the atmosphere is being studied. We are also incorporating magnetospheric inputs tothe polar ionosphere. We will report the status and future plan of the space environment study using
GAIA.

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IT-04: A New Data Format to Promote International Exchange and Share of GNSS-TEC Data
1

Takuya Tsugawa, 2Susumu Saito, 1Michi Nishioka, 3Akinori Saito, 4Yuichi Otsuka, and 1Mamoru
Ishii
1
National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
2
Electronic Navigation Research Institute, Japan
3
Kyoto University, Japan
4
Nagoya University, Japantsugawa@nict.go.jp
Keywords: GPS TEC Format, Data Share
Abstract
Several 100 km to 1,000 km scale ionospheric variations caused by equatorial plasma bubble and/or
travelling ionospheric disturbances can degrade singlefrequency GNSS positioning and differential
GNSS positioning. However, these ionospheric disturbances have not been monitored enough due tothe lack of dense wide-coverage ionospheric observations. One of the most effective methods forsuch dense and wide-coverage ionospheric observations is twodimensional TEC observations using a
dense GNSS receiver network. Dense GNSS receiver networks are now available only limited areas
such as Japan, North America, and Europe. It is needed to expand the GNSS-TEC observation area
using all the available GNSS receiver networks with international collaboration of ionosphere andspace weather researchers in the world. We propose a new data format, GNSS-TEC Exchange format(GTEX), to promote international exchange and share of GNSS-TEC data. The main concept of the
GTEX is to include slant TEC data from each GNSS receiver. By sharing slant TEC data which are
not converted to vertical TEC, various ionospheric studies may be possible without affected by
specific analysis procedures such as satellite/receiver bias estimation, or different mapping heights.
The structure of GTEX is designed to be as close to the format of GNSS observation data (RINEX)
as possible, because RINEX is a de facto standard in exchanging GNSS observation data andpotential users of GTEX would be familiar with RINEX. We will present recent activities relatedwith GTEX in AOSWA, ICAO/ISTF, and ITU-R.

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IT-05: Modeling and Prediction of Global Ionospheric Delay with IGS Ground-based GNSS
Observations
Mingyuan Wang and Jinsong Ping (National Astronomical Observatories, China)
jsping@bao.ac.cn
Keywords: Ionosphere Modeling Prediction
Abstract
IGS ground-based GNSS observations provide large quantity of data with high temporal and spatial
resolution which are needed in ionospheric delay modeling and forecast. Here, we use the data frommany GPS/GLONASS sites of the IGS to generate the Global Ionosphere Maps and obtain the timeseries of the spherical harmonic coefficients. Then, with the Two-Variable regression analysis, wefind the periodic trend of the time series and use the AR model to predict the time series of thespherical harmonic coefficients. Finally, we get a global ionosphere forecast model, and give theaccuracy assessment of the result.

72THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-06: A Statistical Analysis of Occurrence Characteristics of Spread-F Irregularities overIndian Region
Arun Kumar Upadhayaya, Sumedha Gupta, MVSN Prasad (National Physical Laboratory, India)
sumedha88@gmail.com
Keywords: Equatorial Spread-F, Low-latitude Ionosphere, Geomagnetic Storms, IonosphericIrregularities
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the regularities of a change in spread F probability during the sunrise,sunset, latitudinal behavior and their response to geomagnetic storm in equatorial and low-mid
latitude stations. The occurrence characteristics of spread-F irregularities, is obtained from daily
hourly ionosonde data from a low-mid latitude station, Delhi (28.6N, 77.2E), for about half a solar
cycle (2001 to 2007). The latitudinal behavior of spread-F is studied using ionosonde data fromanomaly crest station, Ahmedabad (23.01N, 72.36E) and equatorial station, Kodaikanal (10.2N,
77.5E) for low, moderate and high solar activity periods, namely 1986,1988 and 1989 respectively.
The maximum percentage occurrences of spread-F were observed during the low solar activity year
2007, which may be attributed due to the existence of gravity waves. An anti-solar activity
correlation to Spread F occurrence is reported during winter and equinox seasons at different stations
which are because of instability generated by the trans-equatorial meridional wind. There is a
substantial variation during pre and post midnight hours in h'F from equatorial to low latititudes in
response to magnetic disturbances. The established irregularities are qualitatively interpreted anddiscussed.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-07: Ionospheric Response to CIR-induced Recurrent Geomagnetic Activity during the
Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 23
1

Yanhong Chen, 2Wenbin Wang, 2Alan Burns

1

National Space Science Center, China
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
chenyh@nssc.ac.cn
2

Keywords: Ionospheric Response, CIR-produced Geomagnetic Activity
Abstract
Based on GPS-TEC data from the Madrigal Database at the MIT Haystack Observatory and electron
density data obtained by CHAMP PLP observations, we investigated ionosphere responses torecurrent geomagnetic activity during 79 CIR events from 2004-2009. The results show that global
ionosphere responses to CIR events have some common features. At high latitudes, TEC and Ne data
show a significant positive response (increased electron densities) after CIR events starting duringlocal daytime. This response is possibly related to the electron density enhancement in the topside
ionosphere during CIR induced geomagnetic activity. At middle to low latitudes, a positive effectalways starts 2-4h after the CIR starting during local daytime and 12-15h later for CIR onset duringlocal nighttime. Case studies indicate the TEC positive response has a strong dependence on thesouthward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. This meansthat penetration electric fields are an important process in causing the positive ionospheric response.
During the recovery time of the CIR-produced geomagnetic activity, the TEC disturbance at low
latitudes sometimes could last for 2-4 days, whereas that at middle to high latitudes occurred only for
1 day in most cases. A comparison of the ionospheric responses between the American, Europeanand Asian sectors shows that the ionosphere response in the North American sector is stronger thanthat in the other two regions.

74THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-08: Space Weather and Space Climate: Ionospheric F2-region variability and sudden
stratospheric warmings
Arun Upadhayaya (National Physical Laboratory, India)
upadhayayaak@mail.nplindia.org
Keywords: Ionospheric Variability, SSW, Space weather, Space Climate
Abstract
The ionospheric F2–region is known to show a large day- to-day and hour-to-hour variability. Someof this variability has recently being linked to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The extent of
ionospheric changes following SSWs of 2007, 2008 and 2009 using ionosonde data from six
different stations in the Asian zone thus covering a broad latitudinal range from 23.2ºN to 45.1ºN is
been investigated. It has been found that ionospheric F2-region shows some significant perturbations
soon after the start of the warming. However characteristics of these perturbations vary from event toevent and from station to station. We also examine the data on equatorial electrojet strength (EEJ)
during these warmings and find there are significant changes in the EEJ strength during the SSW
events. A counter electrojet (CEJ) coincident with the start of warming was observed for the SSW
event of 2008. We then compare this SSWs linked variability observed by us to the normal
day-to-day and hour-to-hour variability seen in the ionospheric data. It is been observed that evenduring times when there are no SSWs and solar and magnetic indices are quite stable and close to
their minimum values, the ionospheric variability is comparable to the variability attributed to thesewarmings. Further, it seems that it is difficult to quantify with precision the changes in foF2, as wellas in the ionospheric response times involved, following these events.

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IT-09: An Investigation on Ionospheric Spread-F and Scintillation in Low Latitude Region
Jiankui Shi, Guojun Wang and Zheng Wang (Natonal Space Sciences Center, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China)
jkshi@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Ionosphere Spread F, Scintillation
Abstract
The data from Digisondes and ionospheric scintillation monitors co-located both at low latitude
station Hainan in Northern hemisphere (109.1°E, dip lat. 9°N) from 2003 to 2007 and station
Vanimo in Southern hemisphere (141.3°E, dip lat. 11°S) in 2006 are used to study spread F (SF)and its correlation with the scintillation. The SF is divided into four types: frequency SF (F-SF),
mixed SF (M-SF), range SF (R-SF), and strong range SF (S-SF). The S-SF is characterized byextended range spread on F layer echo traces that significantly extend beyond the foF2. For the
Hainan station, the variation of the S-SF occurrence was similar to that of the scintillation. From2003 to 2007, both the S-SF and scintillation occurrences had the same variation trend from the highto the low solar activity year. The correlation coefficient between the occurrences of the S-SF andthe scintillation was as high as 0.93. For the Vanimo station, the occurrence variation of the S-SF
was also similar to that of the scintillation. The correlation coefficient between the two phenomena
was as high as 0.88. These suggest associated mechanisms producing S-SF and scintillation. Twocases of the simultaneously observations of the S-SF, scintillation and the electron density depletion(obtained with satellite) are shown in this study. It supports that the equatorial plasma bubbles
extending from bottomside to topside ionosphere are the most likely cause explaining the highcorrelation between the S-SF and scintillation.

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IT-10: Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling via Atmospheric Waves and its Possible Application
to Ionospheric Forecasting1

Zuo Xiao, 1Yongqiang Hao, and 1Donghe Zhang
2
Saiguan Xiao
1

Peking University, China
2National Space Science Center, China
zxiao@pku.edu.cn
Abstract
The ionosphere is that part of the earth’s space environment where air is partially ionized with
sufficient number of electrons thus to influence seriously radio wave propagation, so high-techs suchas telecommunication, navigation and so on, are affected, particularly when ionosphere is severely
disturbed. On the other side, ionopsheric disturbances are dynamically driven from both lower
atmosphere and magnetosphere as well. In recent a few decades, ionosphere-atmosphere couplingdraw more and more attention of the scientists in the field of space weather. A number of surface
sources such as severe weather, volcanic eruption and great earthquakes are some of such sources. In
this report, based on observations, we show some ionospheric responses to atmospheric waves
originated at ground and troposphere. Special focus is put on ionospheric spread-F possibly triggeredby such waves. Since spread-F is the main cause of scintillations affecting navigation and in SAR
application, after an analysis of spread-F exciting mechanism, it is concluded that in modeling
Spread-F occurrence, severe ground weather should be considered as an important factor.

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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-11: Variations of Thermospheric Density from CHAMP and GRACE
Jiuhou Lei (University of Science and Technology of China, China)
leijh@ustc.edu.cn
Keywords: Thermosphere, Satellite dragAbstract
The thermosphere is the outer gaseous shell of a planet’s atmosphere that exchanges energy with thespace plasma environment. The energy deposition of solar irradiation and magnetospheric inputs into
the upper atmosphere can change the thermospheric density significantly. From a practicalstandpoint, unanticipated changes in the density of the thermosphere cause satellites to deviate fromtheir anticipated paths, or ephemerides. Observations from CHAMP and GRACE during 2002-2010
are used to study the seasonal variations of thermospheric density by characterizing the dominantmodes of thermospheric density variability as empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Our results
showed that the first three EOFs captured most of the density variability, which can be as large as
98% of total density variability. Subsequently, the obtained mean field, first three EOFs and thecorresponding amplitudes of three EOFs are applied to construct a thermospheric density model at
400 km to study seasonal variations of thermospheric density. In this talk, we will present thevariations of thermospheric density from the EOF model and also comparison with other empiricaland theoretical models.

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IT-12: GPS/GLONASS Operation Quality Deterioration Caused by Solar and Geophysical
Activity
1

Yury Yasyukevich, 2Elvira Astafyeva, 3Vladislav Demyanov, 1Artem Ishin, 1Eugene Kosogorov,and 1Gennadyi Smolkov

1

The Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS, Russia
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France
3
Irkutsk State Railway University, Russia
yasukevich@iszf.irk.ru
2

Keywords: GPS/GLONASS, Ionosphere Irregularities, Solar Radio Emission
Abstract
Ionosphere, that is propagation medium, can considerably affect the GPS/GLONASS signal
parameters. Rapid fluctuations of the electron density may cause losses-of-phaselock. So may very
rapid fluctuations in the signal strength, ionospheric scintillations. Under the 2001-2012 magnetic
storms and solar flares the stability of global navigation satellite system operation was found to
deteriorate. In the report we present data on GPS/GLONASS losses-of-phaselock. It was found that
total number of GPS slips depends on a magnitude of geomagnetic storm: stronger storms stronger
affect the GNSS receivers. During storms slips occur mostly on the dayside, in the local noon andafternoon sectors. Solar radio noises of more than 1000 sfu can have a negative influence on the
GPS/GLONASSS performance. Theoretical calculations shown, that GLONASS was more stable tothe solar radio emission adverse action than GPS was. The work was partly supported by RussianFoundation for Basic Research (under grant No 12-05-33032-a), and by Russian Federation president
grant MK-3771.2013.5.

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IT-13: Introduction of Newly Developing and Setting Tri-band Beacon Receivers For
Ionosphere Study In Eastern China
1

Jinsong Ping, 1Mingyuan Wang, 2Peng Guo, 2Weihua Wang, 2Rongbin Zhao, 3Zhenjie Hong,
4
Honglin Jin, 2Nianchuan Jian, 5Zhen Wang
1

National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
3
Wenzhou University, China
4
Institute of Earthquake Prediction, China
5
Xinjiang Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
jsping@bao.ac.cn , wangmy@nao.cas.cn
2

Keywords: Radio Beacon, Ionosphere Tomography, Beacon Receiver, Ionospheric CT
Abstract
Tri-band radio beacon is useful and independent method to measure total content of electron, and tosupport ionospheric tomography by means of a ground receiver network at certain longitude zone.
Using software radio technique, we developed new receiver units. The new units have been set at
Shanghai and Beijing. Together with two ITS30 receivers setted at Shanghai and Wenzhou, aproto-type of beacon receiver network have started to record the ionospheric data since this year.
Currently, beacon signals from 4~6 beacon satellites can be observed. The progress about thedevelopment of the unit and network, as well as the preliminary applications of the tri-band beacon
network is introduced. Beyond this, we also fixed the bug and improved the analysis algorithm fortradional method for TEC retrieving by using self phase lock loop dual frequency beacon receivers.
Additionally, a suitable inversion algorithm has been developed for modeling and simulating theionospheric electron density distribution using configuration of the newly network. The techniquedeveloped here will benefit the ionospheric observation and modeling in China.

80THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

IT-14: Analyzing the Asymmetric Thermospheric/Ionospheric Response to External Driving
1,2,3

Ercha Aa, 2A.J.Ridley, 3Donghe Zhang, and 3Zuo Xiao

1

National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
University of Michigan, USA
3
Peking University, China
aercha@nssc.ac.cn
2

Abstract
The thermospheric densities derived by CHAMP/STAR accelerometer within the time period from
01 May 2001 to 31 December 2007 are utilized to investigate the hemispheric asymmetry in
response to strong storm driving conditions. The geomagnetic storms of 03–07 April 2004 are firststudied since the storms occurred close to the vernal equinox, allowing the seasonal asymmetry to beeliminated to the greatest extent. The averaged density enhancements in the southern polar region
were much larger than that in the northern polar region. The comparisons of density versus Dst and
Ap index indicate a strong linear dependence with the slopes of the fitted lines in the southernhemisphere being 50% greater than that in the northern hemisphere. This effect can possibly be
attributed to the non-symmetric geomagnetic field. 102 storm events are used to conduct a statisticalanalysis. For each storm, a linear fit is made between the averaged mass density and the Dst and Ap
indices independently in each hemisphere. The seasonal variation of the intercepts and the slopes ofthe fitted lines are further explored. The baseline is strongly dependent on season, with thehemisphere receiving the larger amount of sunlight having larger density. The slopes showed
considerable hemispheric differences around the vernal equinox yet no statistical differences aroundother seasons. It is speculated that competing mechanisms cancel each other during the solstices,while during the equinoxes, the lower magnetic field in the southern hemisphere may allow stronger
ion flows, thereby causing more Joule heating. It is uncertain why the vernal equinox would befavored in this explanation though.

81

Poster Session
Abstracts
November 6 (Wednesday) 10:15-12:15
November 6 (Wednesday) 20:00-21:00 (Optional)
2/F, Lobby

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PRE-01: Analysis of Particle Radiation Environment on Middle-Earth and Geosynchronous
Orbits
Xiaochao Yang, Chunqin Wang, and Tao Jin (National Space Science Center, China)
yxc@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Middle-Earth Orbit, Geosynchronous Orbit, Energetic Particle Radiation
Abstract
An analysis of particle radiation environment on middle-Earth and geosynchronous orbits in solar
minimum is performed by using data from Chinese middle-Earth and geosynchronous satellites. On
the middle-Earth orbit, energetic electron populations vary on variable timescales. While
geomagnetic storms occur, energetic electron populations disturb violently with fluxes enhancing
over orders of magnitude on the middle-Earth orbit. Being due to the rough particle radiation
environment, satellites suffer the hazard of deep charge on the middle-Earth orbit. On this orbit, thedose rate corresponds with energetic electron population variations. On geosynchronous orbit,
periodic variations of relativistic electron populations on daily and solar-cycle timescales areprominent. Geomagnetic storms may excite relativistic electrons enhancing over several orders ofmagnitude on geosynchronous orbit, then increase the deep charge risk of satellites on this orbit.

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PRE-02: Downward Motions of Plasmoids in the CME-Flare Current Sheet Observed in the
GHz Band1

Guannan Gao, 1Min Wang, 1Jun Lin, 2Ning Wu, 3Chengming Tan, 4Bernhard Kliem, and 5Yang Su

1Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Yunnan Normal University, China
3
National Astronomical Observatories, China,
4
University of Potsdam, Germany
5
University of Graz, Austria
ggn@ynao.ac.cn
2

Keywords: CME, Solar Radio Bursts, Magnetic Reconnection, Current Sheet
Abstract
We investigate the spectral fine structure of a solar radio burst observed by the Solar Broadband
Radio Spectrometer (SBRS) at the Huairou Solar Observing Station in a CME/flare event on
December 1, 2004. The data display various patterns of plasma motions, suggestive of the interaction
between sunward moving plasmoids and the flare loop system during the impulsive phase of theevent. By comparing with the observational consequences of the standard model of two-ribbon flares,
we identify several typical motions that are expected to occur in the reconnecting current sheet and in
the cusp region on top of the flare loops. These include the sunward motion of plasma onreconnected field lines in the CME/flare current sheet, the reconnection outflow and embedded
plasmoids, emission stripes of zero frequency drift as an indicator of the termination shock on theloop top, and the growth of the flare loop system together with the shrinkage of individual flare loops.
In addition to the radio data, we also studied data in white-light, H-alpha, EUV, soft and hard X-rays.
These data show a fast CME at a speed exceeding 800 km s−1 and the seperation of footpoints of theflare loops in agreement with the height of the flare loop system estimated from the radio data.

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PRE-03: Dramatic Decrease of the Relativistic Electron Fluxes in the Outer Radiation Belt
during Two Geomagnetic Storms
Ying Xiong and Lun Xie (Peking University, China)
xielun@pku.edu.cn
Keywords: Relativistic Electron, Radiation Belt, Geomagnetic Storm
Abstract
Geomagnetic storms can either increase or decrease relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation
belt [Reeves et al., 2003]. In this work, we analyze two storm events observed by both SAMPEX and
POES/NOAA satellites. In both events, the relativistic electron fluxes have significant dropout
during the main phase, especially in two high energy channels (1.5~6.0MeV and 2.5~14MeV), andthe fluxes never recover to their pre-storm level during the recovery phase. Our analysis suggests thatthe decrease of relativistic electron fluxes can be explained by the shortage of the 'seed' electrons(10~200keV) and no effective local energization mechanism to accelerate the 'seed' population ofelectrons to MeV level.

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PRE-04: Acceleration of Electrons and Protons in Reconnecting Current Sheets IncludingSingle or Multiple X-points
Yan Li and Jun Lin (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)liyan821@ynao.ac.cn
Keywords: Magnetic Reconnection, Particle Acceleration
Abstract
Electron and proton acceleration by a super-Dreicer electric field is investigated in a reconnecting
current sheet in the presence of a guide field. The electric field is assumed to vary in space. Electronsand protons are accelerated from initial positions randomly distributed over the whole acceleration
region. The energy spectrum eventually obtained is consistent with a power-law spectrum. The
spectral index of electrons increases rapidly with increasing guide field, but the index for the protons
does not vary significantly. The relation of the final energy to the initial position is also studied. The
results indicate that the addition of a guide field not only allows the reconnecting electric field toselectively accelerate electrons and protons from different initial positions, but also increases thenumber of accelerated electrons and reduces the number of protons. Meanwhile, kinematiccharacteristics of the accelerated particles in the current sheet including multiple X-points andO-points were also investigated. The result indicates that the existence of the multiple X- andO-points helps particles trapped in the accelerating region to gain more energy, and yields the double
or multiple power-law feature.

86THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRE-05: Secondary Fast Reconnection with Radiation Cooling in Solar Chromosphere
Lei Ni (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
leini@ynao.ac.cn
Keywords: Magnetic Reconnection, Radiation Cooling
Abstract
Magnetic reconnection in partially ionized plasmas with radiation cooling is studied through2.5-dimensional numerical MHD simulations, using the Spitzer resistivity in the low solar
atmosphere.Though the magnetic Reynolds number is high (~105-106), fast magnetic reconnection
still can happen because of multiple levels of the plasmoid instability occurring inside the current
sheet. As secondary instabilities start to appear, slow-mode shocks are detected between secondary
plasmoids and secondary fragments of the current sheet. Our numerical simulations also indicate thatthe radiation cooling is important. The radiation cooling can make the secondary plasmoids appear
earlier and the maximum current density reach a value more than two times higher than in the casewithout radiation cooling; the resulting maximum reconnection rate during the secondary instability
is five times higher in the case with radiation cooling included. The upward out-flow velocity in our
simulations approaches the velocity of chromospheric jets, with the maximum velocity reaching~24km/s. The temperature enhancement in the case with radiation cooling is about 1000 K, which is
close to the temperature enhancement of Ellerman bombs and micro-flares in the chromosphere. We
conclude that the plasmoid instability with radiation cooling can be a very important mechanism tostudy various dynamic phenomena in the low solar atmosphere.

87THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRE-06: L-band Solar Radio Burst Events-A Potential Interference for Navigation Signal andits pre-alarm Method Research
Liang Dong (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
dlpp50@163.com
Most navigation satellites transmit navigation signals within L band, such as GPS, Galileo, BeiDouand so on. Solar radio bursts frequently occurred also have strong emission in L band, which arepotential interferences for the navigation service. During the most intense solar radio bursts, theobviously decreasing performance of navigation systems was found. In this work, we get thethreshold values for the three communication frequency points by theoretical arithmetic. At the sametime, we will set up the real-time solar radio flux monitor system for test and verify the real thresholdvalue in natural space based on 10m solar radio telescope. At last, we will try to build the pre-alarmsystem combining multi bands observation data.

88THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-01: The Analysis of Correlation between the Variation of the Absolute Solar Flux and
Degradation in the SNR of the GPS Satellites Reception on Solar Radio Burst
Chul-hwan Lee, Seung-min Shin, Soon-cheol Hong (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)smshin@setsystem.co.kr
Keywords: SNR of GPS, Absolute Solar Flux
Abstract
Utilization of the GPS satellite is getting higher in contemporary era so that common or important
communication channels need to be protected not to be cut. In this paper, SNR criteria of GPS
system is established by analyzing the SNR of the GPS satellites and compared with its general
performance as a wireless communication equipment. For confirming the similarity of the variationof the SNR value of the GPS satellites and the variation of absolute solar flux, the degradation of the
SNR value of the GPS satellites in the case of solar burst is compared with the increase in absolute
solar flux. Correlation between variation of the SNR value of the GPS satellites and the variation ofabsolute solar flux has been identified will be used as a method to prevent cutting down of the GPS
satellites communication under the solar radio burst for convenience of GPS system users.

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PFM-02: Development of Long-term Solar Activity Forecast System using 2.8GHz Solar Radio
Data of Korea Space Weather Center (KSWC)
Heeseon Noh, Jung-Hoon Kim, and Saeho Yoo (SETsystem, Korea)
kim@setsystem.co.kr
Keywords: Solar Cycle Prediction, Sunspot Number, Solar Radio Flux, Modified McNish-Lincoln
methodAbstract
In order to provide forecasting information of solar activity using domestic data, the forecast systemof long-term solar activity monitoring using solar flux data of KSWC is developed. It is well known
that more data gives more accurate result. Thus three observed data are used as input value of theprediction model. First, solar flux data at 2.8GHz of KSWC (Korea Space Weather Center) from2004 to 2013 is used. Second, 2.8GHz data of Canada from 2004 to 2003 is used for fill up the gap
between KSWC data and Sunspot numbers. Lastly, Sunspot numbers of NOAA from 1749 to 2004 is
also used for increasing the total number of data. Using the Modified version of the McNish-Lincoln
method, solar cycle 23-24 prediction is carried out and compared to the result of NOAA's Solar
Cycle Prediction. Sunspot numbers and solar radio flux data mentioned above can be used in
combination with various other forecasting model.

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PFM-03: Development of Automatic Detection Software of type II/III Solar Radio Burst
1

Seung-min Shin, 2Yong-sun Park, and 1Ji-Hye Lee

1

SETsystem, Inc., Korea
Seoul National University, Korea
yspark@astro.snu.ac.kr
2

Keywords: Solar Radio Burst, Type II, Type III, Automatic Detection
Abstract
In an attempt to warn the solar radio burst promptly and in an unmanned manner, we developed S/W
detecting the type II/III radio bursts automatically. First, the data produced every four seconds andstacked over one hour in the form of I(t,f) are divided by a burst-free template I(t_0, f) so that RFI iseliminated and differences of gain among frequency channels are corrected. Next, using the fact thattype II and III burst appear like straight lines in t-1/f and t-f diagrams, respectively, we perform
Radon transformations, which are simply the measures of coincidence of a straight line with theobserved events as functions of its slope, a, and intercept, b. Local maxima in the a-b diagrams well
above noise level are identified as burst events. The larger one of the two transformation values
occurring at about the same (a,b) from (t,1/f) and (t,f) spaces determines the type of burst. Then we
estimate a few parameters like the starting time of the events and the arrival time on Earth. We
validated the algorithm using data logged for last two years at Icheon site of Radio Research Agency,
Korea.

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PFM-04: Global MHD Simulation of the Magnetospheric Response to Large and Sudden
Enhancement of the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure
1

Yasubumi Kubota, 2Ryuho Kataoka, 1Mitsue Den, 3Takashi Tanaka, 1Tsutomu Nagatsuma, and4
Shigeru Fujita
1

National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
3
Kyushu University, Japan
4
Meteorological College, Japanykubota@nict.go.jp
2

Keywords: Sudden Commencement, Global MHD Simulation
Abstract
A large and sudden enhancement of the dynamic pressure in the solar wind generates a geomagnetic
sudden commencement (SC). The magnetic field variation of SC at auroral latitudes shows a bipolarchange which consists of preliminary impulse (PI) and main impulse (MI). Fujita et al. [2003a,
2003b] reproduced the PI/MI magnetic field variation using a magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling
simulation and clarified the fundamental mechanisms. Interestingly, Araki et al. [1997] reported ananomalously large-amplitude SC of more than 200 nT with an unusually spiky waveform at low
latitude, which occurred when the magnetopause was pushed inside geostationary orbit. Such a super
SC is the target of this study. We investigate the large-amplitude SC at auroral latitudes when a large
solar wind dynamic pressure impinges on the magnetosphere using a newly developed
magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling simulation which has advanced robustness. We simulate two SC
events of dynamic pressure enhancement of 16 times larger than the standard value, caused by thedensity enhancement and velocity enhancement, respectively. As an initial result of the comparison
with the SC events, it is found that magnetic field variation of PI/MI is larger and sharper in the caseof velocity rise than the case of density rise. It is therefore suggested that high-speed solar wind may
be needed to create large and sharp SC. It is also found that a magnetic field variation similar toso-called Psc appears after PI/MI only in the case of velocity rise. When the high-speed solar windimpinges on magnetosphere, vortices are repeatedly formed at the equatorial magnetopause,
probably due to the KH instability. It seems that the high pressure of the vortices play an essential
role as a current generator to drive the field-aligned currents and the magnetic field oscillation. In
this presentation, we discuss the mechanisms of super SC in more detail, combining the otherinteresting simulation results.
92THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-05: Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejections: Do we need to Correct the Projection Effect interms of Velocity?
Chenglong Shen, Yuming Wang, Pinzhong Ye, and Shui Wang (University of Science andTechnology of China, China)
clshen@ustc.edu.cn
Keywords: CME Projection Effect
Abstract
The projection effect is one of the biggest obstacles in learning the real properties of coronal massejections (CMEs) and forecasting their geoeffectiveness. To evaluate the projection effect, 86 full
halo CMEs (FHCMEs) listed in the CDAW CME catalog from 2007 March 1 to 2012 May 31 areinvestigated. By applying the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model, we obtain the de-projectedvalues of the propagation velocity, direction and angular width of these FHCMEs, and compare themwith the projected values measured in the plane-of-sky. Although these CMEs look full halo in theview angle of SOHO, it is found that their propagation directions and angular widths could vary in alarge range, implying projection effect is a major reason causing a CME being halo, but not the only
one. Furthermore, the comparison of the de-projected and projected velocities reveals that most
FHCMEs originating within 45o of the Sun-Earth line with a projected speed slower than 900 km s−1
suffer from large projection effect, while the FHCMEs originating far from the vicinity of solar disk
center or moving faster than 900 km s−1 have small projection effect. The results suggest that not allof FHCMEs need to correct projection effect for their velocities.

93THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-06: Classification of Ambiguity in Polarimetric CMEs Reconstruction
Xinghua Dai, Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Zhanle Du, and Han He (National Astronomical
Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
xhdai@nao.cas.cn
Keywords: Sun, Corona Sun, Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) techniques, Polarimetric
Abstract
The Thomson scattering theory indicates that there exist explicit and implicit ambiguities inpolarimetric analyses of CME observations. We suggest a classification for these ambiguities in the
CME reconstruction. Three samples including double explicit, mixed and double implicit ambiguity
are exhibited with the polarimetric analysis of STEREO CME observations. These samples
demonstrate that this classification is helpful to improve polarimetric reconstruction.

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PFM-07: What Time Will the Solar Proton Event Arrive?
Yanmei Cui (National Space Science Center, China)
ymcui@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: SPE Delay Time
Abstract
Solar protons are accelerated to very high velocities when a solar flare produced. How long will a
SPE be observed at the Earth's orbit after the flare? This delay time is correlated with many factors,
such as the flare's size, CME's speed, etc. In this paper, the relationship between the delay time andthe flares' size and longitude is discussed, and the fitting function for the delay time is made.
According the fitting function, we can forecast the arrival time of SPE in advance.

95THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-08: Development of International Cooperation System for Analysis of WSA-ENLIL
Model
Saeho Yoo, Seungmin Shin, and Chulhwan Lee (SETsystem, Inc. Korea)smshin@setsystem.co.kr
Keywords: WSA-ENLIL, ENLIL Cooperation
Abstract
To meet the growing demands of solar wind prediction, Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC)
introduced WSA-ENLIL model in 2012 which is known to have relatively high accuracy inestimation of solar wind arrival time on Earth. However, it also has limitation of being influenced byoperator’s training proficiency. Many analytical methods have been proposed to reduce such amanual calculation error. Basically, most methods require considerable operating time to obtain
result. Therefore, cooperation and exchange of analyzed data between agencies are essential. Since
the introduction of WSA-ENLIL model, KSWC has made efforts on international cooperation.
Application software has been developed to analysis WSA-ENLIL results of different agencies anddata exchange system is being established step by step. In this paper, a successful process of
KSWC’s international cooperation and its consecutive activities are reported.

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PFM-09: Fine Structures inside the Reconnecting Flare/CME CS
Zhixing Mei and Jun Lin (Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
meizhixing@ynao.ac.cn
Keywords: Solar Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Magnetic Reconnection Turbulence, Current Sheet
Abstract
Magnetic reconnection plays a critical role in energy conversion during a solar flare/coronal massejection (CME) event. This paper presents a twodimensional magnetohydrodynamic experiment for
the reconnection process operated inside the current sheet (CS) which is embedded into an overalllarge-scale eruptive magnetic structure. In order to study the fine structure and micro processes
inside the CS, mesh refinement is used to reduce the numerical diffusion. Benefiting from it, somehigh-resolution features are captured, such as plasmoids from the tearing mode and plasmoid
instability regions of turbulence and slow-mode shocks. These different high nonlinearly turbulent
components cooperate with each other to achieve fast release of magnetic release. The behaviors ofthese fine structures inside the flare/CME CS in the eruption were studied in this work in detail.

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PFM-10: Modeling of Energetic Electrons in Outer Radiation Belt
Lun Xie (Peking University, China)
xielun@pku.edu.cn
Keywords: Outer Radiation Belt, Energetic Electron
Abstract
Variations of geomagnetic field structure and solar wind bulk speed will influence the distribution ofenergetic electron in outer radiation belt. The distribution of 0.3-2.5 MeV electrons was studied
based on SEM/NOAA-POES16 observations. By comparing distributions of 0.3-2.5 MeV electrons
with different solar wind velocities and different geomagnetic activities, contributions of solar windand geomagnetic field to 0.3-2.5MeV electrons distribution were discussed. Results of thoseobservational studies indicate that variation of geomagnetic field dominates the distribution of
0.3-2.5MeV electrons at the inner region of the electron radiation belt while the distribution at theouter region is quite sensitive to the solar wind velocity. Based on previous analyses and discussions,a statistical model of the >0.3MeV electron distribution in outer radiation belt was established.

98THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-01: Correlation Study between Ensemble Parameter of CME Analysis and EstimatedArrival Time of CME via ENLIL ModelJi Hye Lee, Jung Hoon Kim, and Soon Cheol Hong (SETsystem, Inc., Korea)
kim@setsystem.co.kr
Keywords: ENLIL Forecasting, Solar Wind
Abstract
In 2013, Korea Space Weather Center (KSWC) established the ENLIL model system for forecasting
arrival time and propagation of CME. The model results in KSWC include arrival time, velocity anddensity of CME. In order to study the variation in the results of ENLIL model due to alteration in theinitial input variables, it was analyzed that the arrival time of the solar wind in ENLIL model
correlates with analysis results of CME through ensemble model technique. The CME parameterssuch as initial velocity, angle width and position are determined through analysis of satellite imagesby operator. Errors could happen easily when operator manually determine the CME parameters. To
reduce the errors, the sensitivity of CME parameters need to be analyzed that the results of ENLIL
mode corresponding to initial CME parameters are compared with observation data of the ACE
satellite for reference to evaluate the performance.

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PRO-02: The Possibility of Pre-alarm Health Events Based on Low Frequency Solar
Observation during the Hazard Space Weather Period
Xuesong Li (First affiliated hospital of Kunming medical university)
xuesong_li99@163.com
Keywords: space weather, pre-alarm health events
Abstract
Scientists have researched the impact of geomagnetic activity for human health for a long time andgot some meaningful results. In general speaking, there exist some correlations between
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and geomagnetic activity. The solar activities such asflares, CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) and so on are some direct drivers for geomagnetic activity.
The radio solar bursts are always detected by solar radio telescopes ahead of the time that the plasma
arrive earth and influence the geomagnetic environments 2-3 days, so we can get the alert
information based on solar radio burst observations. In our work, we analyzed the total number ofcardiovascular and cerebrovascular events which are supplied by the First affiliated hospital ofKunming medical university in solar radio burst period during 2012 March and May. We find thatthe number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events increased after the radio solar burst events
2-3 days. This result proves that the solar radio burst events can be as an alert method for
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in extremely space weather. We can get alert information
for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events based on solar radio observations for taking place ofthe existing methods based on Ap index. In another hand, based on some results of extremely low
frequency-health experiments, we analyzed total patients number of Permeability of pleural effusion
during the month of 5th March 2012 events, and then we found a obviously increasing comparing
with total patients number in the same period the other years. So it seems that there may be apossibility early warning method for Permeability of pleural effusion based on low frequency
observation.

100THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-03: SEPC Alert Scales for Major Space Weather Events
Juan Miao, Qiuzhen Zhong, and Qiqing Liu (National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China)
miaoj@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Major Space Weather Events, Alert Scales
Abstract
Space environment prediction center (SEPC), NSSC, has developed alert scales for major space
weather events to improve understanding of space weather events among various users and thegeneral public. These alert scales have been used in space weather operational practices for 3 years.
The alert scales correlate space weather events with their likely effects on satellite, communication
systems. To many who have a limited acquaintance with space weather, the SEPC alert scales canconvey useful and intelligible information. The four categories of descriptive scales for space
weather events devised by SEPC, which are most relevant to the possible effects on satellite andcommunication system, are solar X-ray event, solar proton event, geomagnetic storm and Relativistic
electron flux enhancement. The alert scales were divided into three levels: red alert, orange alert andyellow alert. The red alert is the top level.

101

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-04: Web-based Software for Space Environment Forecast Analysis
Zhaofeng Chen, Yanxia Cai, Liqing Shi, and Siqing Liu (National Space Science Center, Chinese
Academy of Science, China)chenzf@nssc.ac.cn
Keywords: Web-based, Space Environment
Abstract
In the last few years, Web-based network technologies have become widely used, which can provide
more convenience with real-time interaction between user and application. In order to better serve alltypes of space environment users including aerospace, researchers, and public with spaceenvironment services, Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) of National Space Science
Center, the first established operational space environment forecasting institution in China,developed a series of web-based software for space environment forecasting analysis, such as spaceenvironment analysis software, data visualization software, android phone software, SEPC’s web
portal. SEPC provides the online space environment services through the web-based software, which
enhance the international cooperation in the sharing of data, models and forecasts. Domestic andinternational users can use the software via the Internet directly to obtain the latest spaceenvironment monitoring data, the model calculation results, event alerts and other information. For
example, the space environment analysis software provides default functional modules as well as
user-defined modules used to systematically analyze the space environment quickly.

102

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-05: The Renewal of ISES Website
1

Ki-Chang Yoon, 1Sunhak Hong, 11Jaehun Kim, 1JinWook Han, 1YoungKyu Kim, 2Bowon Lee,
2
Ilseok Kim, 2Ye-jin Han, 2Jeong-Deok Lee, 3Terrance Onsager, 4David Boteler
1

Korean Space Weather Center, Korea
SELab Inc., Korea
3
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, USA
4
IPS, Canada
jdlee@spweather.com
2

Keywords: ISES, Space Weather
Abstract
To improve outreach to worldwide users of space weather information and to enhancecommunication among all ISES members, the ISES website has been renewed. It has been open to
the public since August 1, 2013 (www.ises-spaceweather.org) with a new design and new content.
The "Space Weather Now" page provides the past and current space weather status with R, S, and G
scale indicators. The "Members" page describes a brief introduction of Regional Warning Centers(RWCs) and Associate Warning Centers (AWCs). The most notable change is that discussions pages
have been added, which enable information sharing among ISES members. In this menu, the "Latest
Forecasts" page provides a forecast portal of space weather by adopting new technology which
directly brings each RWC's forecast to the ISES site. The "Space Weather Discussions" page
provides a Social Network Service (SNS) based upon a bulletin board to discuss specific topics forspace weather among ISES members. The "Enlil Discussions" page gives results from the Enlil
model and analyses of the results by SWPC, KSWC, and other partners. The Enlil model is used to
predict the properties of the solar wind, which is a fast-moving stream of charged particles emanatingfrom the sun, and can give long lead-time warning of geomagnetic storms. It is expected that thisnew ISES website will be helpful to share information and to inform the public of space weather.

103

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-06: Virtual-Sun: A New-generation 3-D Computer Platform for Space Weather Service
Han He, Huaning Wang, Xin Huang, Zhanle Du, Yan Yan, Xiaoshuai Zhu, Xinghua Dai ( National
Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences )hehan@nao.cas.cn
Keywords: 3-D computer Platform, Operational Space Weather Service
Abstract
A new-generation computer platform with 3-D interface for operational space weather service (fromsolar perspective) is developed at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of
Sciences (NAOC). This platform is named as Virtual-Sun. The Virtual-Sun is a Client-Server (C-S)
system, the Server part provide the solar activity data, the Client part is installed on the user’s
computer. The Virtual-Sun Client obtains the solar data from the Server through the Internet
connection, and displays the 3-D virtual image of the Sun as well as various solar activity
components (e.g., sunspots, magnetograms, active region numbers, flares, warning or forecasting
information, etc) on the virtual sun. The 3-D virtual sun can be rotated and zoomed freely by using
computer mouse or keyboard. A test version of the Virtual-Sun Client is available on the website of
the platform.

104THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-07: Space Weather Concerns in Spacecraft Design
Qi Huyan (China Academy of Space Technology, China)
yqhu@spaceweather.ac.cn
Keywords: Space Weather, Spacecraft, Design
Abstract
In general, space weather can be considered as solar-induced short-term variability of spaceenvironment. Space weather will exert effects on spacecraft that vary according to the orbit and theposition of the spacecraft. For spacecraft engineering, design measures must be carried out to avoid
space weather problems. In design phase, the key issue for space weather concern is using various
space environment models to define what environmental conditions a given spacecraft may
encounter. For cumulative long term effects, such as total ionizing dose and displacement damage,climagtological models (e.g. AP-8/AE-8 trapped radiation belt model) based on historical space
weather data are used to define long-time average environment. In addition, due to the dynamic
nature of the space environment, appropriate design margin must be specified to reflect theuncertainties arising from the models as well as other factors. For transient or short term effects, suchas single event effect or charging effect, a worst-case environment model which defines large space
weather events (e.g. October-November 2003 extreme solar storm ) is used for spacecraft engineer to
do a worst case analysis, and then countermeasures are carried out to make sure the spacecraft canwithstand severe space environment disturbance.

105THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PSA-01: The Magnetic Field Extrapolation of AR11158
Xiaoshuai Zhu and Huaning Wang (National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China)
xszhu@bao.ac.cn
Keywords: relaxation, extrapolation
Abstract
We reconstruct the magnetic field of NOAA active region 11158 by our relaxation method based ona vector magnetogram series from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar
Dynamic Observatory (SDO).

106

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PIT-01: A Study of Solar X Class Flare Effects on the Ionosphere1Jeong-Hun Kim, 1Yongha Kim, 2Geonhwa Jee, 3Seungjun Oh, 4Young-Sil Kwak

1

Chungnam National University, Korea
Korea Polar Research Institute, Korea
3
SELab, Inc., Korea
4
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Korea
yhkim@cnu.ac.kr
2

Keywords: Solar Flare, Ionosphere, Ionosonde
Abstract
It has been known that intense solar flux of EUV and X-ray during solar flares causes the ionosphereto change abruptly to the level of interfering radio communication. Now that more accurate
observations of solar EUV and X-ray fluxes are available, we study the effect of solar flares on theionosphere by comparing a physic-based model results with ionosonde data. In order to simulate theeffects of a solar flare, we have revised the SAMI2 model by including both photoionization of
X-ray spectral range (below 50 A) and photoelectron impact ionization. In this revision, we adopted
x-ray fluxes measured by the TIMED/SEE instrument, and scale factors of photoionization crosssections of N2, O2, and O for taking into account photoelectron impact ionization effects. For thelargest 7 X class flare events over the last decade, we have searched ionosonde data that containcritical frequencies of E and F2 layers (foE, foF2) with appropriate confidence levels. From theglobal network of ionosonde stations, 16 and 25 of ionosonde data sets were found that havecorresponding variations of foE and foF2, respectively, to the selected flares. We find thatenhancements of electron density from the revised SAMI2 are a little higher than those from theionosonde data for both E and F2 peaks after the flare events. It seems that the revised SAMI2 model
calculates larger electron densities due to overestimation of photo-electron effect in its
parameterization process. However, the revised SAMI2 model results in F2 electron densities
significantly lower than the ionosonde data observed in the morning. This may be due to the fact that
the SAMI2 model does not include zonal transport of plasma by neutral wind and electric field.
When compared with the ionosonde foE data, the revised SAMI2 model seems to predict E region
electron densities for both pre-flare and flare events relatively well.

107

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PIT-02: Electron Density Profiles Derived from Obliquely Sounded Ionogram
Yongmin LEE, Jinho JO, and Cheoloh JEONG (Electronics and Telecommunications ResearchInstitute, Korea)
ymlee01@etri.re.kr
Keywords: Electron Density Profiles, Obliquely Sounded Ionogram
Abstract
The conventional ionosondes are used to collect data of ionosphere right above the ionosonde
location and to provide a picture of the ionospheric properties. Although these ionosonde stations arelocated worldwide, there are locations where it is not easy to operate one, like oceans, deserts andother remote places. Knowing the ionospheric properties and behaviors at these parts of the world isalso very important to know. The oblique sounding technique is one method to achieve this andreach those locations. With oblique sounding the transmitter and the receiver locations are far apartfrom each other, even thousands of kilometers or miles. The oblique ionospheric sounding techniquehave some advantages in terms of that the obliquely sounded HF signal have the abilities to monitor
the ionosphere of some places where it is not deployed vertical sounder between transmitter andreceiver and of course, to vertically detect the ionosphere of area where it is deployed itself. It allows
obtaining more information of ionosphere, such as critical frequency, vertical height and electrondensity, MUF (maximum usable frequency) over a wider area with no additional ionosonde. We present
the results of experimental studies of oblique sounding for research purpose between Jeju and Icheon
stations in Korea which are about 420km apart. The extraction algorithm of electron density profiles
after conversion of the oblique to vertical ionogram which should be considered the incidence angle,
the Doppler frequency, the influence of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), the multipath
propagation, and the error probability are mainly focused in this paper. This paper is also concernedwith the autoscaling of oblique sounding ionogram for analysis of propagation conditions on a fixed
point-to-point measurement as a near term activity.

108

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PIT-03: Nowcast and Forecast of GPS Total Electron Content in Japan
1

Michi Nishioka, 1Takuya Tsugawa, 1Takashi Maruyama, 2Susumu Saito, and 1Mamoru Ishii

1

National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
Electronic Navigation Research Institute, Japantsugawa@nict.go.jp
2

Keywords: GPS TEC Forecast Ionosphere
Abstract
We are developing a data-base for total electron content (TEC) over Japan utilizing RINEX data
which is provided by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. We serve two-dimensional maps ofTEC,
de-trended
TEC,
andindicesofTEC
disturbances
through
http://seg-web.nict.go.jp/GPS/GEONET/. Our database consists of three versions of data-base, that is,real-time, quasi-real-time, and final versions. In addition to the two-dimensional map of TEC derived
from 1,200 ground-based GPS stations' data, we provide two-dimension maps of de-trended TEC
and indices of TEC. In real-time and quasi-real-time versions, the TEC maps are provided with atime lag of less than one hour and four hours, respectively. We also develop TEC models to forecast
TEC in Japan using Artificial Neural Network. Current state of nowcasting and forecasting system of
TEC in Japan will be shown in the presentation.

109

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PIT-04: TEC Variation and Comparison with NeQuick Model during Low Solar Activity
Phase
1

Shengguo Wang, 2J.K. Shi, 2G.J. Wang, and 2X. Wang

1

The Applied Meteorological Institute of Beijing, China
State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, CSSAR/CAS, Beijing, China
shengguo007@sohu.com
2

Keywords: Total Electron Content, NeQuick, Ionosphere Semiannual Anomaly
Abstract
Total electron content (TEC) is an important descriptive quantity for ionosphere of the earth and issignificant in determining the scintillation and group delay of a radio wave through a medium as well.
Measurements of GPS STEC carried out at Hainan station (Geog.Lat. 19.5°N, Geog.Long. 109.1°
E, Geomag. Lat. 9.0°N), are used to derive vertical total electron content (VTEC). The ionosphericvariation pattern for different seasons during the lowest solar activity phase (2007-2008, R12 is 7.5
and 2.9 respectively) is studied, such as diurnal and seasonal variations, “winter anomaly” and“semiannual anomaly”; Results of diurnal and seasonal variations have been compared with that of
the NeQuick model. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: (a) The diurnal variation of TEC
for different seasons obviously shows semiannual anomaly, it is due to semiannual changes inneutral composition, in general the diurnal maximum is the highest in equinox months and about 34
TECU, the least in summer months and about 25 TECU. (b) TEC is higher in winter (about 30
TECU) compared to summer (about 25 TECU), vertical winds are downward in the winter resulting
in increase of the O/N2 ratio, which causes the winter anomaly. (c) “Winter anomaly” is not only aphenomenon of daytime, also can be seen during nighttime. (d) NeQuick model underestimates the
TEC during nighttime and overestimates it during daytime independent of the season for low solar
activity.

.
110

.

Participants List

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Name

Institute/Company

EmailAA, Ercha

National Space Science Center, China

aercha@nssc.ac.cn

AHLUWALIA,
Harjit

University of New Mexico, USA

hsa@unm.edu

BOUYA, Zahra

IPS Radio & Space Services, Australia

z.bouya@ips.gov.au

BÜCHNER, Jörg

Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System buechner@mps.mpg.deResearch, Germany

CAI, Yanxia

National Space Science Center, China

caiyx@nssc.ac.cn

CHAU, Ha Duyen

Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam

hdchauigp@yahoo.com

CHEN, Hongfei

Peking University, China

hfchen@pku.edu.cn

CHEN, Yanhong

National Space Science Center, China

chenyh@nssc.ac.cn

CHEN, Zhaofeng

National Space Science Center, China

chenzf@nssc.ac.cn

DAI, Xinghua

National
China

Astronomical

Observatories, xhdai@nao.cas.cn

DONG, Liang

YunnanChina

Astronomical

Observatory, dlpp50@163.com

DOU, Xiankang

University of Science and Technology of dou@ustc.edu.cn
China, China

DU, Zhanle

National
China

FORBES, Terry

University of New Hampshire, USA

GAO, Guannan

YunnanChina

GONG, Jiancun

National Space Science Center, China

gongjc@nssc.ac.cn

GUPTA, Sumedha

National Physical Laboratory, India

sumedha88@gmail.com

HONG, Soon-cheol

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

hsc@setsystem.co.kr

HONG, Sunhak

Korean Space Weather Center, Korea

sunhak.hong@gmail.com

HUANG, Xin

NationalChina

HUYAN, Qi

China Academy of Space Technology, yqhu@spaceweather.ac.cn
China

IGUCHI, Toshio

National Institute of Information and iguchi@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, JapanISHII, Mamoru

National Institute of Information and mishii@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

Astronomical

Astronomical

Astronomical

Observatories, zldu@nao.cas.cn
terry.forbes@unh.edu

Observatory, ggn@ynao.ac.cn

Observatories, xhuang@bao.ac.cn

112

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

JAVARAIAH,
Javaraiah

Indian Institute of Astrophysics, India

jj@iiap.res.in

KAMARUDIN,
Farahana

National Space Agency, Malaysia

farahana@angkasa.gov.my

KENPANKHO,
PrasertKing Mongkut’s Institute of Technology, kkpraser@kmitl.ac.thThailand

KIM, Jaehoon

Electronics and Telecommunications jhkim@etri.re.kr
Research Institute, Korea

KIM, Jeong-Heon

Chungnam National University, Korea

jugunism@gmail.com

KIM, Jung-Hoon

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

kim@setsystem.co.kr

KIM, Yongha

Chungnam National University, Korea

yhkim@cnu.ac.kr

KUBO, Yuki

National Institute of Information and kubo@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

KUBOTA,Yas ubumi

National Institute of Information and ykubota@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

LEE, Chul-hwan

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

pisces@setsystem.co.kr

LEE, Jeong-Deok

SELab, Inc., Korea

jdlee@spweather.com

LEE, Ji-Hye

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

bluecandie@setsystem.co.kr

LEE, Yongmin

Electronics and Telecommunications ymlee01@etri.re.kr
Research Institute, KoreaLEFÈVRE, LaureRoyal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium

LEI, Jiuhou

University of Science and Technology of leijh@ustc.edu.cn
China, China

LI, Faquan

Wuhan Institute ofmathematics, China

LI, Xiaoyu

National Space Administration, China

lixy@cnsa.gov.cn

LI, Xinlin

University of Colorado, USA

lix@lasp.colorado.edu

LI, Xuesong

First affiliated hospital of Kunming xuesong_li99@163.com
medical university, China

LI, Yan

YunnanChina

LI, Zhitao

National Space Science Center, China

LIN, Jiaben

National
China

Astronomical

Observatories, jiaben.lin@163.com

LIN, Jun

YunnanChina

Astronomical

Observatory, jlin@ynao.ac.cn

Astronomical

physics

laure.lefevre@oma.beand lifaquan@wipm.ac.cn

Observatory, liyan821@ynao.ac.cn

113

lztlzt579@163.com

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

linrl@nssc.ac.cn

LIN, Ruilin

National Space Science Center, China

LIU, Ling

First affiliated hospital of Kunming liuling7744@126.com
medical university, China

LIU, Siqing

National Space Science Center, China

LIU, Yanxiao

YunnanChina

Astronomical

Observatory, liuyanxiao@ynao.ac.cn

LIU, Zhong

YunnanChina

Astronomical

Observatory, lz@ynao.ac.cn

LUO, Bingxian

National Space Science Center, China

LV, Jianyong

Nanjing University of Information jylu@nuist.edu.cn
Science & Technology, China

MANIK, Timbul

National Institute of Aeronautics and timbul@bdg.lapan.go.id
Space (LAPAN), Indonesia

MEI, Zhixing

YunnanChina

MIAO, Juan

National Space Science Center, China

MURATA, Ken T.

National Institute of Information and ken.murata@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

NAGATSUMA,
Tsutomu

National Institute of Information and tnagatsu@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

NI, LeiYunnanChina

NOH, Heeseon

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

seon19@setsystem.co.kr

NOSE, Masahito

Kyoto University, Japan

nose@kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp

OBARA, Takahiro

Tohoku University, Japant.obara@pparc.gp.tohoku.ac.jp

OH, Seung-Jun

SELab, Inc., Korea

oh@spweather.com

ONSAGER,
Terrance

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, terry.onsager@noaa.gov
USA

PARK, Jae-Woo

WeSpace, Korea

PEREVALOVA,
Natalia

The Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, pereval@iszf.irk.ru
SB-RAS, Russia

PETROVAY,
Kristof

Eötvös University, Hungary

PING, Jinsong

National
China

Astronomicalluobx@nssc.ac.cn

Observatory, meizhixing@ynao.ac.cn

Astronomical

Astronomicalliusq@nssc.ac.cn

miaoj@nssc.ac.cn

Observatory, leini@ynao.ac.cn

pjw@wespace.kr

k.petrovay@astro.elte.hu

Observatories, jsping@bao.ac.cn

114

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

QU, Shaojie

China Academy of Space Technology, qsj501@sina.com
China

SHEN, Chenglong

University of Science and Technology of clshen@ustc.edu.cn
China, China

SHI, Jiankui

National Space Science Center, China

jkshi@nssc.ac.cn

SHIN, Seung-min

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

smshin@setsystem.co.kr

SHINAGAWA,
Hiroyuki

National Institute of Information and sinagawa@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

TANG, Weiwei

National Space Science Center, China

TROSHICHEV,
Oleg

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, olegtro@aari.ru
RussiaTSUGAWA,
TakuyaNational Institute of Information and tsugawa@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

UCHIDA, Yuko

National Institute of Information and yuchida@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, Japan

UPADHAYAYA,
A.K.

National Physical Laboratory, India

WANG, Huaning

National
China

WANG, Jingjing

National Space Science Center, China

WANG, Jinsong

China
China

WANG, Mingyuan

National
China

WANG, Shengguo

The Applied Meteorological Institute of shengguo007@sohu.com
Beijing, China

WANG, Siwei

National Space Science Center, China

WANG, Yuming

University of Science and Technology of ymwang@ustc.edu.cn
China, China

WATANABE,
TakashiNational Institute of Information and takashi.watanabe@icsu-wds.org
Communications Technology, Japan

WATARI, Shinichi

National Institute of Information and watari@nict.go.jp
Communications Technology, JapanWU, JiNational Space Science Center, China

wuji@nssc.ac.cn

XIE, Lun

Peking University, China

xielun@pku.edu.cn

XIONG, Ying

Peking University, China

yingxiongxyz@gmail.com

Astronomical

MeteorologicalAstronomical

tangww@nssc.ac.cn

upadhayayaak@mail.nplindia.org

Observatories, hnwang@bao.ac.cn
wjjkey@hotmail.com

Administration, wangjs@cma.gov.cn
Observatories, wangmy@nao.cas.cn

115

ym@nssc.ac.cn

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

fyang@nssc.ac.cn

YANG, Fang

National Space Science Center

YAN, Yan

National
China

YANG, Xiaochao

National Space Science Center, China

YANG, LongFirst affiliated hospital of Kunming haopot@163.com
medical university, China

YANG, Yong

Wuhan Institute ofMathematics, China

YASYUKEVICH,
Yury

The Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics yasukevich@iszf.irk.ru
SB RAS, Russia

YE, Zonghai

National Space Science Centerzhye@earth.sepc.ac.cn

YOO, Saeho

SETsystem, Inc., Korea

worldho@setsystem.co.kr

YU, MinNational Space Science Center, China

yumin@nssc.ac.cn

YU, Yingjie

Bureau of Major
Academy of Sciences

YU, ZhuoFirst affiliated hospital of Kunming 13987190577@163.com
medical university, China

ZHANG, Huanbo

First affiliated hospital of Kunming 13759563160@163.com
medical university, China

ZHANG, Xiaoxin

China
China

ZHONG, Qiuzhen

National Space Science Center, China

zhongqz@nssc.ac.cn

ZHOU, Yi

National Space Science Center, China

zhouyi@nssc.ac.cn

ZOU, Ziming

National Space Science Center, China

mzou@nssc.ac.cn

Astronomical

MeteorologicalObservatories, yyan@bao.ac.cn

Physics

R&D,

yxc@nssc.ac.cn

and yangyong2012@gmail.com

Chinese yuyj@cashq.ac.cn

Administration, xxzhang@cma.gov.cn

116Author Index

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

AA, Ercha

IT-14, p81

AHLUWALIA, Harjit

SA-01, p53

AHMAD, Karzaman

SA-06, p58

ASTAFYEVA, Elvira

IT-02, p69
IT-12, p79

BERNHARD, Kliem

PRE-02, p84

BJORNSSON, Gunnlaugur

FM-04, p38

BOTELER, David

PRO-05, p103

BOUYA, Zahra

K-06, p23

BÜCHNER, Jörg

FM-01, p35

BURNS, Alan

IT-07, p74

CAI, Yanxia

PRO-04, p102
RO-08, p51

CAI, Zhenbo

RO-04, p47

CAMERON, Robert

SA-02, p54

CHAU, Ha Duyen

SA-10, p62

CHEN, Hongfei

RE-08, p33

CHEN, Yanhong

IT-07, p74

CHEN, Zhaofeng

PRO-04, p102
RO-08, p51

CHENG, Xuewu

SA-13, p65

CLETTE, FrédéricSA-03, p55

CUI, Yanmei

RO-07, p50
PFM-07, p95

DAI, Xinghua

PFM-06, p94
PRO-06, p104
SA-08, p60

DEMYANOV, Vladislav

IT-12, p79

DEN, Mitsue

PFM-04, p92

DENG, Yuanyong

SA-05, p57

DONG, Liang

PRE-06, p88

DOU, Xiankang

RE-02, p27

DU, Zhanle

PFM-06, p94
PRO-06, p104
SA-12, p64
SA-08, p60
118

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

DUNG, Nguyen Thanh

SA-10, p62

EDEMSKY, Ilya

IT-02, p69

FORBES, Terry

FM-02, p36

FRANCIS, Matthew

K-07, p24

FUJITA, Shigeru

PFM-04, p92

FUJIWARA, Hitoshi

IT-03, p70

GAO, Guannan

PRE-02, p84

GONG, Jiancun

FM-06, p40
K-01, p18
RO-08, p51
SA-14, p66

GONG, Shunsheng

SA-13, p65

GONG, Wei

SA-13, p65

GUO, Juan

SA-05, p57

GUO, Peng

IT-13, p80

GUPTA, Sumedha

IT-06, p73

HAN, Jin-Wook

PRO-05, p103

HAN, Ye-jin

PRO-05, p103

HAO, Yongqiang

IT-10, p77

HE, Han

PFM-06, p94
PRO-06, p104
SA-08, p60

HONG, Soon-cheol

PFM-01, p89
PRO-01, p89

HONG, Sunhak

K-03, p20
PRO-05, p103
RO-05, p48

HONG, Zhenjie

IT-13, p80

HUANG, Xin

PFM-06, p94
PRO-06, p104
SA-08, p60

HUYAN, Qi

PRO-07, p105

ISHII, Mamoru

IT-04, p71
K-02, p19
PIT-03, p109

ISHII, Yoshiki

FM-04, p38
119

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINAISHIN, Artem

IT-02, p69
IT-12, p79

IYE, Toshihiko

FM-04, p38

JANZHURA, Alexander

FM-04, p38

JAVARAIAH, Javaraiah

SA-09, p61

JEE, Geonhwa

PIT-01, p107

JEONG, Cheoloh

PIT-02, p108

JIAN, Nianchuang

IT-13, p80

JIN, Hidekatsu

IT-03, p70

JIN, Honglin

IT-13, p80

JIN, Tao

PRE-01, p83

JO, Jinho

PIT-02, p108

KAMARUDIN, Farahana

SA-06, p58

KATAOKA, Ryuho

PFM-04, p92

KENPANKHO, Prasert

IT-01, p68

KIM, Ilseok

PRO-05, p103

KIM, Jaehun

PRO-05, p103
RO-05, p48

KIM, Jeong-Heon

PIT-01, p107

KIM, Jung-Hoon

PFM-02, p90
RO-03, p46
PRO-01, p99

KIM, Yongha

PIT-01, p107

KIM, Young-Kyu

PRO-05, p103

KOSOGOROV, Eugene

IT-12, p79

KOTZE, Pieter

FM-04, p38

KWAK, Young-Sil

PIT-01, p107

KUBO, Yuki

RE-06, p31

KUBOTA, Yasubumi

PFM-04, p92
RE-07, p32

LEE, Bowon

PRO-05, p103

LEE, Chul-hwan

PFM-01, p89
PFM-08, p96

LEE, Jeong-Deok

PRO-05, p103
RO-05, p48

LEE, Ji-Hye

PFM-03, p91
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THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-01, p99
LEE, Sang-Woo

RO-05, p48

LEE, Yongmin

PIT-02, p108

LEFÈVRE, Laure

SA-03, p55

LEI, Jiuhou

IT-11, p78

LEONOVICH, Ludmila

IT-02, p69

LI, Faquan

SA-13, p65

LI, Xinlin

RE-01, p26

LI, Xuesong

PRO-02, p100

LI, Yajuan

SA-13, p65

LI, YanPRE-04, p86

LI, Zhitao

SA-07, p59

LIN, Jiaben

SA-05, p57

LIN, Jun

PFM-09, p97
PRE-02, p84
PRE-04, p86
SA-04, p56

LIN, Ruilin

FM-06, p40

LIU, Fanghua

RO-07, p50

LIU, Siqing

FM-06, p40
IT-14, p81
PRO-03, p101
PRO-04, p102
RO-06, p49
RO-08, p51
SA-14, p66

LIU, Zhong

RE-05, p30

LU, Guorui

RO-08, p51

LUO, Bingxian

SA-14, p66

LV, Jianyong

FM-05, p39

MANIK, Timbul

K-07, p24

MARUYAMA, Takashi

IT-01, p68
PIT-03, p109

MATZKA, Juergen

FM-04, p38

MEI, Zhixing

PFM-09, p97

MIAO, Juan

PRO-03, p101
121

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

SA-07, p59
MIYOSHI, Yasunobu

IT-03, p70

MIYOSHI, Yoshizumi

RE-07, p32

MONGKOLKACHIT, Athipu

IT-01, p68

MURATA, Ken T.

RO-01, p44

NAGATSUMA, Tsutomu

IT-01, p68
PFM-04, p92
RE-07, p32

NEUDEGG, David

K-07, p24

NI, Lei

PRE-05, p87

NISHIOKA, Michi

IT-04, p71
PIT-03, p109

NOH, Heeseon

PFM-02, p90

NOSE, Masahito

FM-04, p38

OBARA, Takahiro

K-05, p22

OH, Seung-Jun

PIT-01, p107
RO-05, p48

ONSAGER, Terrance

K-04, p21
PRO-05, p103

OTSUKA, Yuichi

IT-04, p71

PARK, Yong-sun

PFM-03, p91

PEREVALOVA, Natalia

IT-02, p69

PETROVAY, Kristof

RE-04, p29

PING, Jinsong

IT-05, p72
IT-13, p80

POLYAKOVA, Anna

IT-02, p69

PRASAD, Mvsn

IT-06, p73

QIN, Shanshan

RO-04, p47

RIDLEY, Aaron

IT-14, p81

SAEMUNDSSON, Thorsteinn

FM-04, p38

SAIBAKA, Nor Rafidah

SA-06, p58

SAITO, Akinori

IT-04, p71

SAITO, Shinji

RE-07, p32

SAITO, Susumu

IT-04, p71
PIT-03, p109

SAKAGUCHI, Kaori

RE-07, p32
122

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINASCHWARZ, Gerhard

FM-04, p38

SEKI, Kanako

RE-07, p32

SETIAHADI, Bambang

SA-06, p58

SHAO, Sipei

RE-08, p33

SHEN, Chenglong

FM-03, p37
PFM-05, p93

SHI, Jiankui

IT-09, p76
PIT-04, p110

SHI, Liqin

PRO-04, p102
RO-08, p51

SHIN, Seung-min

PFM-01, p89
PFM-03, p91
PFM-08, p96

SHINAGAWA, Hiroyuki

IT-03, p70

SMOLKOV, Gennadyi

IT-12, p79

SU, Yang

PRE-02, p84

SUPNITHI, Pornchai

IT-01, p68

TAHAR, Mohammad Redzuan

SA-06, p58

TAN, Chengming

PRE-02, p84

TANAKA, Takashi

PFM-04, p92

TERKILDSEN, Michael

K-07, p24

THANH, Le Truong

SA-10, p62

THERON, Herman

FM-04, p38

TROSHICHEV, Oleg

RE-03, p28
FM-04, p38

TSUGAWA, Takuya

IT-01, p68
IT-04, p71
PIT-03, p109

UPADHAYAYA, A.K.

IT-06, p73
IT-08, p75

VOEYKOV, Sergey

IT-02, p69

WANG, Baoping

SA-13, p65

WANG, Chunqing

PRE-01, p83

WANG, Guojun

IT-09, p76
PIT-04, p110

WANG, Huaning

PFM-06, p94
123

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PRO-06, p104
PSA-01, p106
SA-08, p60
WANG, Min

PRE-02, p84

WANG, Jinsong

RO-02, p45

WANG, Jingjing

SA-14, p66

WANG, Mingyuan

IT-05, p72
IT-13, p80

WANG, Shengguo

PIT-04, p110

WANG, Shui

PFM-05, p93

WANG, Weihua

IT-13, p80

WANG, Wenbin

IT-07, p74

WANG, X.

PIT-04, p110

WANG, Ying

RO-04, p47

WANG, Yongli

FM-06, p40

WANG, Yuming

FM-03, p37
PFM-05, p93

WANG, Zhen

IT-13, p80

WANG, Zheng

IT-09, p76

WATANABE, Takashi

SA-11, p63

WATARI, Shinichi

SA-11, p63

WU, Ning

PRE-02, p84

XIAO, Saiguan

IT-10, p77

XIAO, Zuo

IT-10, p77
IT-14, p81

XIE, Lun

PRE-03, p85
PRE-10, p98

XIONG, Ying

PRE-03, p85

YAN, Yan

PRO-06, p104
SA-08, p60

YANG, Xiaochao

PRE-01, p83

YANG, Yong

SA-13, p65

YASYUKEVICH, Yury

IT-02, p69
IT-12, p79

YE, Pinzhong

PFM-05, p93

YOO, Saeho

PFM-02, p90
124

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

PFM-08, p96
YOON, Ki-Chang

PRO-05, p103
RO-05, p48

YU, Xiangqian

RE-08, p33

ZHANG, Donghe

IT-10, p77
IT-14, p81

ZHANG, Xiaoxin

FM-06, p40
RO-02, p45

ZHAO, Rongbin

IT-13, p80

ZHONG, Qiuzhen

PRO-03, p101
RO-07, p50
SA-07, p59

ZHU, Xiaoshuai

PRO-06, p104
PSA-01, p106
SA-08, p60

125

Tours Information
Fuxian Solar Observatory
November 6 (Wednesday) 13:30-18:00

The Stone Forest
November 7 (Thursday)

13:30-18:00

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Fuxian Solar Observatory
Fuxian Solar Observatory (FSO) is located at the northeast side of Fuxian Lake, Yunnan, China. It is at
24°34’48”N and 102°57’01”E. The altitude is 1720m above the sea level. FSO is operated by Yunnan
Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The 1m New Vacuum Solar Telescope (NVST), formerly known as 1m Yunnan Solar Telescope(YNST), is the primary facility of FSO. The science task of NVST is the high resolution observationsof the sun. The task of NVST is to observe the sun in the range from 0.3 to 2.5 micron by highresolution imaging devices and spectrometers combining with a polarization analyzer. The sciencecases are mainly focus on the fine structure of solar magnetic field and its evolution. NVST is an
Alt-Az mounting telescope with 1200mm vacuum window and 980mm pure aperture. The focal length
at F3 is 45m. The FOV is about 3 arc minute. The main instruments include the Multi-channel High
Resolution Imaging System, the Multi-wave Spectrometer, the High Dispersion Near-infrared
Spectrometer and the AO system.
The Optical &. Near-Infrared Solar Eruption Tracer (ONSET, Nanjing University) and the Solar Radio
Dynamic Spectrometer with 11-m dish are the other two important solar facilities. The ONSET is athree-tube telescope working in Halpha, continuum and the near infrared He-I 10830. The range of
observation bands of Solar Radio Dynamics Spectrometer is 70-700MHz. The temporal resolution is
2ms and the spectral resolution is 0.2MHz/Channel.

127

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINAThe Stone Forest
The Stone Forest lies about 80 miles to the southeast of Kunming. A geological phenomenon, theStone Forest was a vast expanse of sea during the Paleozoic era-some 270 million years ago. Later, themovement of tectonic plates altered the earth's crust, causing the sea to recede and its limestone bottom
to appear, thereby forming land. Due to the constant seeping of rain through the cracks in thelimestone, some of the stone formation dissolved and the fissures broadened, producing a group of
great sculptures of different shapes, all molded by nature.
In the midst of the forest, there is a huge rock screen on which two words-Stone Forest-are engraved in
official script (in a calligraphic style typical of the Han Dynasty, 206 B.C.-220 A.D.). Among the
scenic sights is the "Sword Peak Pond" with jadeite-colored water so clear that one can see the bottomof the pond. Other astonishing sights include "Figure of Ashima," "Shi Ba Xiang Song" (its nameoriginating in the Chinese love story, "Liang Shanbo and Zhu Yingtai"), and "Lotus Peak."The splendor of the Stone Forest is enhanced by the local customs of the native Sani people (who arepart of the Yi minority). Sani people are industrious and hospitable——and unconstrained. Sani
women are expert at spinning, weaving, and embroidering. They like to wear rainbow-coloredheadgear and bright-colored dresses. The young people especially are very good singers and dancers.
Every day at sunset, under the moonlight, boys and girls gather at the village platform. While the boys
play the three-stringed plucked instruments, the girls clap their hands and dance the strong-rhythmed
traditional "A'Xi (Ah-shi) Dance in the Moon" with great enthusiasm. If you happen to witness theevent, you will be invited to join in the festivity.

128General
Information
Workshop Venue
Useful Information

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

Workshop Venue
1. Kunming, China
Kunming is the capital and largest city of Yunnan Province in Southwest China. It is the political,
economic, communications and cultural centre of Yunnan. Located at an elevation of 1,950 meters on
the Yungui Plateau with low latitude and high elevation, Kunming has one of the mildest climates in
China. The weather never gets very hot in summer. With its perpetual spring-like weather which
provides the ideal climate for plants and flowers, Kunming is known as the "City of Eternal Spring".
The city is covered with blossoms and lush vegetation all-year round.
Its economic importance derives from its geographical position. It is positioned near the border with
Southeastern Asian countries, serving as a transportation hub in Southwest China, linking by rail to
Vietnam and by road to Burma and Laos. This positioning also makes it an important trade center inthis region of the nation. Kunming has been designated a special tourism center and as such sports a
proliferation of high-rises and luxury hotels.

Point A in the map: Kunming, Yunnan, China
130THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

2. Hotel: Yunnan Dianchi Hotel (http://www.dianchihotel.com)
Address: 9 Yijing Road, Dianchi National Tourism Resort, Kunming, Yunnan Province, China
Postal Code: 650228
Telephone: +86 871 433 4888
Fax: +86 871 431 2067
Invested by Civil Aviation Administration of China, Yunnan Dianchi Hotel was completed and put
into use in August 1998. The hotel is constructed to the national four-star standard, and it is locatedin Kunming National Tourist Resort, near Dianchi Lake, "the peal of the plateau". The weather isneither too cold in winter nor too hot in summer. The sea gulls come here in winter, and the fresh
flowers grow everywhere in summer. The underground hot spring is directly led to the hotel rooms,
and free broadband internet service is provided. With convenient transportation, it only takes a
15-minute drive from downtown and an about 20-minute drive from the railway station and airport.
The hotel is like a garden. With complete ancillary facilities, it has 217 guest rooms of various types(367 beds); 29 large and small conference rooms and classrooms; and Western restaurant andChinese restaurant, which can accommodate 500 people dining at the same time. In addition, thespots and recreation places are also arranged, like swimming pool, ball hall, entertainment hall andchess & card game rooms.

Point A in the map: Kunming Changshui International Airport
Point B in the map: Dianchi hotel
Route Distance: 41.2 km (25.7 miles)
131THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

2. Local Weather
Located at an elevation of 1,950 meters on the Yungui Plateau with low latitude and high elevation,
Kunming has one of the mildest climates in China, characterized by short, cool dry winters with milddays and crisp nights, and long, warm and humid summers, but much cooler than the lowlands. The
weather never gets very hot in summer; the temperature has exceeded 30 °C only on a handful ofoccasions. With its perpetual spring-like weather which provides the ideal climate for plants andflowers, Kunming is known as the "City of Eternal Spring". The city is covered with blossoms and lush
vegetation all-year round. The period from May to October is the rainy season and the rest of the year
is dry. The city has a mean annual rainfall of 1,010 millimeters, with an annual sunshine period of
2,250 hours and an annual frost-free period of 230 days. Extreme temperatures in the city have ranged
from −7.8 °C to 32.2 °C.

3. Insurance
The Conference Organizers recommends participants to possess travel, property medical or othernecessary insurances before coming to China. The AOSWA 2013 Conference Organizers cannot beheld responsible for the costs resulting from personal accidents or property loss during the Congress.

4. Currency Exchange
The currency in circulation in China is the Chinese Yuan, or RMB Yuan, which is not a freeconvertible currency. There are also certain rules on restriction of foreign exchange which should beavailable in the information of Chinese Customs on entry and exit. The international standard
abbreviation sign of RMB Yuan is CNY. 1 CNY consists of 10 Jiao (dimes) or 100 fen (cents). The
denominations of the Chinese Yuan in bank notes are 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100. Participants can
exchange major free convertible foreign currencies for RMB Yuan at airports, major hotels and banks
in China. Currently, 1 USD can be exchanged for about 6.3 CNY. All currency exchange receipts
should be saved in case participants want to exchange RMB back to their own currency. Banks may
demand to see the original exchange receipt.

5. Credit Cards & ATM
Major credit cards are acceptable in the conference hotels (and other hotels) and in most department
stores. ATMs of major banks are widely spread all over the major cities and can be used in drawing
RMB yuan with your credit card/debit card. Please check with your bank as to the bank charges.

6. Workshop Working Language
The Conference working language is English.
134THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

7. Food
Kunming's cuisine combines fresh ingredients afforded by the moderate climate with mild herbs andspices giving its cooked dishes sufficient flavor but lacking the pungency associated with food fromother regions of the country. The city's climate fosters the growth of literally hundreds of species ofmushroom which are consequently a predominant feature of many dishes.

8. Smoking Policy
Please note that smoking is prohibited within the conference premises. Smoking is also banned inpublic areas like airports, hospitals and restaurants.

9. Water
It is recommended not to drink tap water. If you want to drink cold water, it is better to order or buy
bottled water, mineral or distilled. Avoiding the ice cubes being made from tap water is also
recommended. Upon request, hotels will provide containers of hot or chilled drinking water in thesleeping rooms at no extra cost. Hotels will also provide an electrically heated kettle to boil water fromthe tap in your room. The boiled water can then be stored in a vacuum thermos for drinking. Some
hotels also provide a special tap in the lavatory that delivers a flow of purified water for drinking or
taking medications. This advice also applies to your pre-conference or post-conference travel in others
cities in China.

10. Voltage, Socket, and Plugs
The electrical current in China is 220-volts, 50Hz A/C. Hotels generally provide wall sockets in every
room, accommodating both the standard “Flat blade attachment plug (Type A)” and common “Obliqueflat blades with ground (inverted V) plug (Type I)” as well as the not-so-common “Round pin
attachment plug (Type C)”as shown in following photographs.

135

THE 2ND ASIA-OCEANIA SPACE WEATHER ALLIANCE WORKSHOPNOVEMBER 4-7, 2013, KUNMING, CHINA

11. Projectors
Overhead projectors and computer-aided projectors (for Microsoft PowerPoint presentations only)
will be available. Mac computers will not be available for PowerPoint presentations. Mac users canconnect to the computer-aided projectors if they bring their own computer and connecting cord.

12. Duplication and Recording
Without permission from authors, taking photographs, audio-taping, video-recording, digital taping
and any other form of duplication are strictly prohibited in the session rooms and poster areas.

13. Cell Phones
Participants are kindly requested to turn off their cell phones or keep the cell phones in vibration state
when entering the meeting rooms and in the poster areas.

14. Children Accompanying
For safety reasons children under the age of 12 are not permitted in poster zones, or conference rooms.

15. Hotlines
Phone Number 110 Police 114 Local Telephone Number Inquiry 116 Domestic Long Distance Inquiry
 117 Time Inquiry 119 Fire
 120 Ambulance 121 Weather Forecast 122 Traffic Police
Telephone Codes Telephone Code for China: 0086
 Area Code for Kunming: 0871

136