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January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

Emerging energy landscapes
 Instability in the global energy markets
 Energy security and the role of government
 Challenges for climate change policy Geopolitical tensions and the importance of Asia
 Toward the G7 Hiroshima Summit
 Japan’s “S+3E”challenges in 2023 and beyond

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January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

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Instability in the global energy markets
 Uncertainty over Ukraine crisis and Russian energy Concerns over gas/LNG crisis?
 Supply disruptions in major global energy supply chain Challenges for power market stability Negative impacts of higher energy prices
 Slowdown in global economy and China factor
 Importance of OPEC plus, US Shale, response measurestaken by major suppliers 2023 global energy market continues to be volatile
IEEJ © 2023 All rights reserved

January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

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Energy security and the role of government
 EU struggles to phase-out Russian energy dependence Impacts on developing countries and their strategy
 US energy policy after the mid-term election
 How things are moving by energy sourcePromotion of nuclear power
Acceleration of RE and EE
Stable procurement of fossil fuels and gas/LNG investment
Speed up for hydrogen and innovation

 Government involvement increasedEnergy subsidies
Investment, long-term commitment, nationalization, etc.
Government hands needed to deal with externalities

 Energy security continued to be highlighted
IEEJ © 2023 All rights reserved

January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

5Challenges for climate change policy Decarbonization remains strategically important Emerging short-term backlash to decarbonization
 Impact of high energy price on lower income societies
 Complications for global climate negotiation
 Simultaneous pursuit of energy security & climate policy Pragmatic approach based on the reality as the key
 2023 may turns out to be a crossroad

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January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

6Geopolitical tensions and the importance of Asia
 Ukraine crisis and the worsened divide of the world
 West vs China-Russia tension & North-South problem
 Uncertainties in the Middle East
 China after “zero-corona” policy
 Rising importance of India and ASEAN
 Integration of energy and economic security?
 Global geopolitics and the divide as key issue in 2023

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January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

7Toward G7 Hiroshima Summit
 G7 needs to contribute to global interests/stability
 Highlight on Japan’s leadership G7 needs to enhance global energy market stability
and global energy securitySecure needed investment in LNG and others for market stabilization
Prevent “zero-sum game resource competition”
Cooperation in nuclear, hydrogen, RE and others

 To reflect the voice of Asia and producers
Role of gas/LNG, multi-step transition, Transition Finance, Avoided emission
Inclusive approach with producers and consumer-producer dialogue Japan’s role to lead G7 to contribute to global interests
 G7 Summit, critical occasion to address global agenda
IEEJ © 2023 All rights reserved

January 31st, 2023 Ken Koyama

Japan’s “S+3E”challenges in 2023 and beyond
 Toward achievement of 2030 energy mix target

Nuclear re-start, life-time extension and new build/replacement
LNG and fossil fuel security of supply
Challenges for maximum introduction of RE and EE
Promotion of innovation: hydrogen, ammonia, CCS/CCUS, etc.
Realization of GX (Green Transformation) plan Discussion for the next Strategic Energy PlanStrategic consideration needed to enhance energy security under the new situation
Energy policy with due consideration of “limitation of market mechanism”
Roadmap needed to realize decarbonization and energy security
Energy policy needs to address innovation and long-term economic growth Japan stands at a crossroads for energy policy in 2023IEEJ © 2023 All rights reserved8