The 3nd Asia-Oceania Space Weather
Alliance Workshop, Fukuoka, Japan, 2015

Recent Advances in Space Weather Services atSEPC／NSSC
Siqing Liu
Space Environment Prediction Center
National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy Sciences

The 3rd AOSWA Workshop

March 2-5 2015 Fukuoka

Space Environment Prediction Center• Establishment: To meet the space weather requirements for
China’s space missions, the Space Environment Prediction Center(SEPC) was established in 1992 within NSSC,CAS.
• Services: Since 1998, SEPC has been issuing space weather
prediction via internet 365days/year.
• Customers：Manned Space Mission, Lunar Exploration, Specificspace missions…

2Outline
Achievements– Operational space weather system– Web-based forecasting tools– Mobile App "e SpaceWx“– Operational models– Data available
Possible international collaboration– IT utilities– Model research– Data mutual-sharing

Operational SpaceWx system
PHONESpace –based monitors

Ground–based monitors

ServiceModels Run

Data Reception
Spam
Prevention

Data Received
Operational Processed

DataBase(30G/day）

Nowcasts

Effects Analysis

Forecasts
Warnings/Alerts

Fault Diagnosis

OutputOutputProducts Made/Visualization

Web-based forecasting tools•••

The software is customer-configurable and adaptable, used as a powerfuldecision-making tool and drawing tool.
It provides abundant on-line data resources with charts, movies, reports,statistics form.
It provides chartroom services to promote collaboration between users.

Mobile App “e SpaceWx”•

SEPC developed the first spaceweather App for mobile phonesystem in China, 2013-2014.

•The app has features ofshowing primary space weather
information from bothinternational data providers
and local observations.

•It provides daily forecast,alerts, model results, minuteby-minute updated
observational data and news
for scientists and engineers.

Operational models

New operational model - AU/AL/AE Input: Vx, By, Bz, Np (ACE);
F10.7
 Output: AU, AL, AE
 Time in advance: ~1 hr (Vxdependent) Time resolution: 10 min

Model verification (1995-2001):
PEIndexLC

10-minPELCPELC

13-pointavrg (2-hr)

25-pointavrg (4-hr)

AU

0.72

0.85

0.81

0.90

0.85

0.92

AL

0.72

0.85

0.84

0.92

0.88

0.94

AE

0.79

0.89

0.87

0.94

0.91

0.95
http://eng.sepc.ac.cn/AEIndex.php

For Daily AE：
Luo et al., 2013 JGR

PE = 0.952
LC = 0.976

Data Available
 Space Environment Monitoring Network (SEMnet, CAS) magneticFenyun
Solarfield Satellites
and images
The Space Environment Monitoring Network(SEMnet) is composed of 17 stations with
 Meridian Project 39 ground-based instruments, and aprocessing and prediction center in Beijing.

Geomagnetic Field, Cosmic rays

Ionosphere profile/scintillation

Center for Space Environment Research and Forecast: www.cserf.ac.cn

Data Available
 Space Environment Monitoring Network (SEMnet, CAS)

Center for Space Environment Research and Forecast: www.cserf.ac.cn

OutlineAchievements– Operational space weather system– Web-based forecasting tools– Mobile App "e SpaceWx“– Operational models– Data available
Possible international collaboration– IT utilities– Model research– Data mutual-sharing

IT utilities
Software modules sharing•Automatic data sending and receiving•Model running management•Product preparation

The web-based analysis tools will
become available on our website:
http://eng.sepc.ac.cn

Model research - CME propagation model

WSA model

CME cone model

HAFv2 model

CME propagation in the heliosphereModel research – Proton radiation belt modela0=Lc ( E )+ a3
a1
E + a2a0 = −0.515
a1 = −1.195
a2 = 0.245
a3 = 3.366

ln( J max ) = b0 + b1 ⋅ eb2 ⋅ E b3

b0 = 5.496
b1 = 16.858

b2 = −0.284
b3 = 0.592
b4 = −0.00865+ b4 ⋅ E

Mutual data sharing on ionosphere Extend the applicable area of data
assimilation model of ionosphere Increase the reliability of the model output

Mutual data sharing on geomagnetic field

BMT H

Eliminationof Sq

10-dayaverage

Modified
FMI

BMT D

Method ofestimating K

Converting
function

Converting
function

BMT Z

Method ofestimating Kp

Linear fit

Poly fit

WDC KpLC of single
station Kp

0.87

0.92

BMT KpLC of Multistation Kp

0.94

0.96

Takahashi

SEPCThank you for your attention!

Space Environment Prediction Center, NSSC/CAS