Power for Peace and Prosperity
Building a Global Nuclear Future“Global Challenges – National Needs”

Presented at Global 2005
Tsukuba, Japan
October 11, 2005

Les E. Shephard, Vice President
Energy, Security & Defense Technologies
Sandia National Laboratories, USA
Phone: 505-845-9064 Fax: 505-844-6953
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,
for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower
Atoms for Peace - 1953
Serve the peaceful pursuits of mankind . . .
. . . provide abundant electrical energy inpower starved areas of the world. . . encourage world-wide investigations withthe most effective peacetime uses offissionable material
Create international controls to prevent
proliferation (IAEA)“Peaceful power from atomic energy is no dreamof the future. That capability, already proved, ishere now - today.”President Eisenhower,“ Atoms for Peace,” - December 8, 1953
Japan • October 2005 • 2

Economic Prosperity Requires
Reliable and Affordable Energy

Source: Royal Dutch Shell, “Exploring the Future – Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities”
Japan • October 2005 • 3

Global Energy Demand and Carbon
Emissions will Grow Over 40 Percent
Energy DemandCarbon Dioxide
Emissions

700500

OtherNuclear400

Coal40300
Natural Gas

200Oil10002005

2010

2015

2020

Billion Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide

Quadrillion BTUs

600

3530
25Developing

2015102025

Developed

50200520102015

2020

AND Developing Countries will Account for 70% of the Increase
Source: USDOE EIA IEO 2004 Reference Case
Japan • October 2005 • 42025

QU AD S. . . for the Foreseeable Future, We Will
be Highly Dependent on Fossil Energy

700
600
500
400300200
1000Hydro/Renewables
Nuclear

Fossil2005

Source: USDOE EIA IEO 2004 Reference Case
Japan • October 2005 • 5Fossil

2025

World-wide Growth in Energy DemandWill Require all Available
Energy Technology Options••••

A complete portfolio of supply
options: renewables, fossil, nuclear
Highly efficient and environmentallybenign technologies
Fault-tolerant, self-healing
infrastructures
Enhanced physical and cybersecurity and safety

Japan • October 2005 • 6

Nuclear is an Important Contributor
to Power Generation in Many Countries
440 Nuclear Power Plants Worldwide103USAFranceJapanRussia
United KingdomKorea RO
Germany
Canada*China**
UkraineIndia
SwedenSpain
Belgium
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Finland
Hungary
Argentina
BrazilMexicoPakistanSouth Africa
Armenia
Lithuania
Netherlands
Romania
Slovenia

5954
31
2320
18
17

Nuclear
NuclearShare
ShareofofPowerPowerGeneration:
Generation: 1982,1982,1992,1992,2002
2002

0Japan • October 2005 • 7

2090%90%80%80%70%70%60%
60%
50%
50%
40%40%30%30%20%20%10%10%0%0%

Share of Pow er G eneration
Share of Pow er G enerationfrom Nuclear
from Nuclear

1515141197665444222221111
140

60

80

100120

1982
1982

1992
1992
Year
Year

2002
2002

China
China
FranceFranceGermany
Germany
India
India
JapanJapan
Korea, S.
Korea, S.
Lithuania
Lithuania
SwedenSwedenSwitzerland
Switzerland
UK
UK
United States
United States

Nuclear Energy in the US
Has Performed Very Well•

103 commercial nuclear power
plants producing electricity in
the United States today•

Located at 64 sites in 31 states

Japan • October 2005 • 842

NuclearCoalGas

Oil

01
2099
1997
1995
1993
1991
19198987
1985

019–

Renewed their licenses (32 reactors)
Filed for license renewal with the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC) (16 reactors)
Officially informed NRC of expectations toapply for license renewal over the next sixyears (22 reactors)

683

––

819

Over 2/3 of the United States’ nuclear
power plants have:

1081

•

They are, on average, 24 years old andlicensed to operate for 40 years with anoption to renew for an additional 20

1219

•

Cents/KWh (2001 dollars)

United States
Source: NEIU.S. Nuclear Electricity
and Operating Efficiency
United States
2.2 TkWh2.9 TkWh

3.7 T
kWh

Percent of Electricity
Generated

90.3

0.20
70.9

0.15
0.10

56.6
0.13

0.20

60.0
0.20

40.0

0.05

20.0

0.00

0.01982

1992

Electricity Generated by Nuclear PowerLeft Axis

Japan • October 2005 • 980.0

2002
Efficiency of Power Plants
Right Axis

Percent of Power Plant
Efficiency

100.00.25

Government Policy and Investment
in Nuclear Energy Removed the US from
the Market and Technical Leadership
R&D Budget for Civilian Fission Research$2,500$Millions$2,000Huge ramp up for
R&D in Japan
reflecting drive
toward energy
security$1,500$1,000$500

Japan

Japan • October 2005 • 10U.S.

FranceGermanyCanada

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

91

90

89

88

87

86

$01985

So urce:
OECDU.K.

President Bush Sees New Nuclear Plants
Essential to U.S. Energy Independence"The first essential step toward greater
energy independence is to apply technology
to increase domestic production fromexisting energy resources. And one of themost promising sources of energy isnuclear power. Today's technology has
made nuclear power safer, cleaner, andmore efficient than ever before. . . "George W. BushApril 27, 2005

Nuclear Power 2010 Initiative– Seven-year, $1.1B effort by Government and Industry
to start building nuclear power plants by the end ofthis decade.

Japan • October 2005 • 11

A New Nuclear Plant is Roughly Cost Competitive with
Coal and Natural Gas, Depending on Waste
Management and Regulatory Stability

Source: Sandia National Laboratories GenSim “Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model”
Z.REFE_03/09/05_Z.218
Japan• October 2005 • 12

The Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
is Key to a Sustainable and Prosperous Future•Nuclear plants are highly reliable andeconomic.

•

Nuclear energy creates no airborne emissions.

•World nuclear fuel supplies can last athousand years or more.

But Challenges Remain

Japan • October 2005 • 13•

Highest levels of safety, efficiency, andoperability must be achieved - everywhere.

•

Nuclear materials and technology must be
controlled to prevent weapons
proliferation.

•A solution to the nuclear waste
management issue must be achieved

US National Lab Directors
Recommended aStrong Nuclear Energy Program
Nuclear Energy Action Plan (2002)

Nuclear Energy: Power for the 21st Century
An Action Plan
Energy is vital to human civilization. It underpins national security, economic prosperity,and global stability. As the world’s most powerful and prosperous nation, the U.S. must
lead the way in developing a diverse energy system that can meet rapidly growing worldenergy demand in a way that promotes peace, prosperity, and environmental quality.
This diverse energy system must include a growing component of nuclear energy.

Decision-Makers
Forum inWashington, D.C.
(2004)In July 2002, the Directors of six U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National
Laboratories wrote to the Secretary of Energy to urge DOE to “implement acomprehensive and integrated plan to further the development of nuclear energy and themanagement of nuclear materials.” Such a plan can help achieve the Laboratory
Directors’ vision:
Vision:Sustainable peace, prosperity, and environmental quality, enabled throughimmediate U.S. leadership in the global expansion of nuclear energy systems.

Goal #1: Improve Air Quality – Reduce Carbon
Emissions, and Increase Energy Security
Goal #2: Reduce Waste by 90%
Goal #3: Reduce Proliferation Risk
Japan • October 2005 • 14

Met With RussianCounterparts to DiscussPrinciples in Common (2004)

Nuclear Fuel Cycle – Growing
Complexity Associated with Spent
Fuel Management
Yellow Cake

Uranium Ore

Uranium
Hexafluoride

Refining Plant

Uranium Mine

Reprocessing Plant
High-Level
Radioactive Waste

Conversion Plant

RecoveredUranium

Recycling(Recovered uranium/plutonium)

High-Level Radioactive Waste
Management Facility

Uranium
Enrichment Plant

MOX Fuel
Fabrication Plant

Uranium
Hexafluoride
Uranium Dioxide(Depleted Uranium)

Spent Fuel

Spent Fuel

High-Level
Radioactive Waste
Disposal Facility

Intermediate Storage
Facility of Spent FuelJapan • October 2005 • 15

ReconversionPlant

NuclearPower StationLow-Level
Radioactive Waste

Low-Level Radioactive
Waste Disposal Facility

Mox Fuel

Uranium Dioxide
FuelAssembly

Fuel Fabrication
Plant

Overarching Recommendation
Concurrent with its Deployment of New Commercial Reactors,
the United States Must Move Forward Rapidly With:
Advanced Proliferation• Advanced reactor technology for:Prevention– Efficient production of electricity andhydrogen– Management and utilization of
proliferable nuclear material– Global market penetration anddominance– Reactors for specific export markets
Safeguards• Advanced fuel separation and recycle
technology for:– Nuclear material resource
optimization and management for
proliferation resistance– Minimized burden on waste
repository– Global market engagement

Advanced FuelSeparation
Japan • October 2005 • 16

• Advanced proliferation prevention technologies
and approaches for:– Process transparency through smart
process controls– Real-time diversion prevention,
detection and response– Comprehensive fuel cycle information
management and integration

Advanced Reactor
Technology

Very-HighTemperature
ReactorBuilding a Global Nuclear Future“Global Challenges – National Needs”

Focus on the Future•Enable the emerging world to access clean, reliable energy
supplies to fuel their economies•

Create a global nuclear services supply system that provides thebenefits of nuclear energy to nations while discouraging materials
production of nuclear proliferation concern•

Create partnerships among nuclear power states to establish a
new paradigm for incorporating advanced manufacturing andinfrastructure technologies to improve safety, reliability andsecurity of fuel cycle systems•

Provide a longer term foundation for creating nuclear systems
that are twice as efficient, create 90% less waste and enable thecradle to grave export of small long-lived reactors to developing
markets in the world•

Pursue a multi-national repository that provides significant
safety, security, economic and non-proliferation advantages.

Japan • October 2005 • 17

Building a Global Nuclear Future“Conclusions”• Energy is a key driver of world economic
prosperity– Demand for energy and electricity will growsubstantially over the coming years, especiallyin the developing world• Nuclear power will be an important part of the
global energy and electricity mix and a key asset
in reducing global carbon emissions• Science and technology supported by domestic
and international policy cooperation, will enable
nuclear power success
Japan • October 2005 • 18