Gross Domestic Product First Quarter of 2023

Non-oil activities lead Saudi economy to grow by 3.9% in Q1/2023
According to flash estimates by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Saudi
Arabia grew by 3.9% in Q1/2023 compared to Q1/2022. This growth was due to the increase in non-oil activities by 5.8%,
government services activities by 4.9%, and oil activities by 1.3% in Q1/2023 year-on-year (Figure 1).
Figure1: Real GDP Growth Rates (Year-on-Year,% )

3.9
1.3
5.8
4.92.5

5.5
6.1
6.2
2.9

14.2
8.7

6.1

11.2

2021

2022

Q1Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2-11.7
Q1-7.0-3.1

2.2

3.7
2.4

5.7

10.0

8.3
10.9
5.4

3.5

6.4

6.7
9.3

13.4
3.1

4.5
1.9
-2.4

Government services activities

22.9

Non-Oil Activities

2.4

Oil Activities

20.3

GDP

2023

Seasonally Adjusted Real GDP Growth Rate
Seasonally adjusted real GDP decreased by 1.3% in Q1/2023
compared to the previous quarter (Q4/2022). This decrease was dueto the decline in oil activities by 4.8%, while non-oil activities andgovernment services activities grew by 1.5% and 1.1% respectively.
(Figure 2).
Figure 2: Seasonally Adjusted Real GDP Growth Rates (Quarter-on-Quarter, %)Oil Activities

Non-Oil Activities

Government services activities

Methodology. Tables.

2021

GENERAL AUTHORITY FOR STATISTICS

2022

1.5
1.1
-1.3

Q1

Q4

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1 -8.2

-4.8

-0.3

1.3

1.2
1.6
1.1
0.7

Q3

1.3
0.8

1.1
1.9
2.1
0.6

Q2

1.4
0.4

2.7

2.4
1.0
1.8
0.8

0.0

1.0

4.3

1.83.1

0.7
0.3

-1.5

0.4

3.1

6.1

12.3

GDP

Methodology of Flash Estimates of Quarterly GDP
Definition: flash Estimate of GDP (Quarterly) is the process of estimating thereal growth rates of GDP which conducted during the short period after theend of the reference quarter, when data for the quarter is still incomplete.
Oil activities: include crude oil, natural gas and refining activities.
Government services activities: includes the activities of all government
agencies listed in the government's final account and the entities that produce
non-market services and controlled by government.
Non-oil activities: includes all other economic activities except for oil activities
and government services activities .
Method: The estimation process is the same as that performed in the quarterly
national accounts but it adopts simplified assumptions about extrapolatingsome indicators (monthly or quarterly) and uses many indicators related toproduction, expenditures, income, price and foreign trade.
Publication timing: flash estimates of GDP growth rate are published after 30days of the reference quarter.
Seasonal Adjustments: The process of estimating and removing seasonal andcalendar influences from data. Seasonally adjusted data means that it does
not contain seasonal and calendar effects resulting from climatic conditions,social customs, calendar events such as the Eid al-Adha and Eid al-Fitr holidays,
and changes in the weekend combinations.
The methodology used: The seasonal adjustment program is one of theprograms that are practiced and applied by statistical offices and committees
around the world, especially when studying and analyzing a set of time series.
The TRAMO-SEATS method is used to make seasonal adjustments. This isbased on the ARIMA model used in many international organizations.

2023

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