Vision for Nuclear Energy
in the 21st Century
Prepared by

Ministry of Natural Resources Canada

P.J. Fehrenbach
Global 2005, Tsukuba, Japan
2005 October 12

Presentation Outline
 Current Situation
 Opportunities
 Essential elements for “Rennaissance”
 Challenges
 SummaryCanadian Energy Context• Canadian Kyoto commitments putting increased
attention on GHG emissions

CO2 Emissions (g/kWh)1000

One CANDU avoids five
Megatonnes of GHG
annually

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1000CoalOil

NaturalGasSolarPanels

WindHydro

Electric Energy Technology
Source: IAEA Spadero et al. 2000Nuclear

Nuclear in the Canadian Energy Context
 Capacity factors of Canadian CANDU reactors
improving CANDU plants returning to operation – now 18/22
operating Pickering Unit 1 returned to service 2005 Oct.
 Expect decision on refurbishment of Bruce 1,2,
 Decision made to refurbish Pt. Lepreau in 2008

Ontario Electricity Supply Scenario
35,00033,000Gas
Gas4,000
4,000MWMW

31,00029,000

Nuclear
NuclearNew
NewBuild
Build(ACR/C6)(ACR/C6)6000
6000MW
MWR e s o u r c e s (M W )27,00025,00023,00021,000

RenewablesRenewables1,500
1,500MWMW
Refurbishment
Refurbishment 11,760
11,760MWMW

19,00017,00015,00013,00011,000Existing
ExistingCoal
CoalRemoved
Removedby
by2007-2009
2007-2009

9,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Note: All Coal out by 2007 - 2009; all nuclear
units refurbished; 50% nuclear share maintained

Elements for Successful Renaissance Support/renew nuclear R&D Infrastructure Energy, materials
 Other applications – science, medicine

 Invest in Next Generation Technology
 Generation III+ (e.g. ACR 1000)
 Generation IV (SCWR)

 Secure Fuel Supply
 Develop/maintain industrial capacity
 Develop/maintain International Partnerships

Canadian Technology Vision

Innovation

ACR—Builds on the Legacy;
A Step Towards the Future

CANDU XGen V

CANDU SCWRGen IVEAdvanced
CANDU Reactor ducto
Gen III+PrGen IICANDU 62030

nit oluov

Continually enhance both
the design andapplications based on theCANDU concept
40

50

Years from today

6070

Partnerships Help Assure Project Delivery
In-Service
DatePlant

Status1996

Cernavoda Unit 1, Romania

On budget, on schedule

1997

Wolsong Unit 2, S. Korea

On budget, on schedule

1998

Wolsong Unit 3, S. Korea

On budget, on schedule

1999

Wolsong Unit 4, S. Korea

On budget, on schedule

2002

Qinshan Phase III, Unit 1,
China

On budget, 6 weeks aheadof schedule

2003

Qinshan Phase III, Unit 2,
China

On budget, 4 months
ahead of schedule

Challenges
 Grow public support
 Ensure safety & security
 Economics and Financing
 Waste management
 Non-proliferation and safeguards

Grow Public Support
 Public opinion is shifting toward nuclear power 70% support refurbishment of existing plants – regionalvariation More than 60% of Canadians support construction ofnew reactors
 All numbers increase when linked to clean air

 Senior environmentalists recommending
reconsideration of nuclear power James Lovelock, Patrick Moore

 Continued communication of the benefits is required

Grow Public Support Safety & Security
 Effective regulatory regime
 International regulatory collaboration, CNS
 Continued safe operation

 Waste Management
 Decommissioning & waste management ofobsolete facilities
 Long term management of spent fuel

Spent Fuel Management
 Nuclear Waste Management Organization created toengage public in assessing and recommending
options for long term management of spent fuel
 NWMO completed public consultation & assessmentphase Draft report recommends “Phased Adaptive Approach”– Final report due 2005 November
 Major newspaper editorial positive
 “the waste problem is eminently solvable”

Non-Proliferation & Safeguards
 International treaties – NPT
 Adopt IAEA safeguards & additional protocols
 Respect nuclear export controls
 Develop proliferation resistant reactor designs
 Develop/use proliferation resistant fuel cycles
 Once through fuel cycles, or Recycle without separation

Summary The benefits of nuclear power are being more
widely recognized Conditions are in place for a “nuclearrennaissance”
 Nuclear will be an essential element of a clean
energy future for Canada in the 21st century
 Canada is investing in R&D infrastructure, inadvanced CANDU designs, and in Generation IV

Merci…
Mina-san, domo arigato
gozaimashita