Exploring carbon neutral developmentthat diverges from the developed country model:

Bhutan’s long-term strategies*
Research objective
Located at the southern foot of the Himalayas, the Kingdom of
Bhutan is endowed with abundant hydroelectric power potential. It
has not only satisfied domestic power demand with hydroelectric
power alone, but also sells surplus power. Further, national policy isaligned with protection of the natural environment, and theconstitution stipulates that forests must not fall below 60 percent of
national land. At present, greenhouse gas emissions fall belowabsorption (in contrast to an estimated 2.2 million tons of CO 2
emissions in 2013, absorption
by forests was 6.3 milliontons), making Bhutan acarbon negative country.
Bhutan has also announced
its aim to be a negative net
emissions country. However,these conditions may not bea permanent.
Firstly, the impacts of global warming on hydroelectric power andforest carbon absorption are issues to be raised. Approximately 900
glaciers exist in Bhutan, but reports have shown that 23% of theirarea has disappeared during the past 30 years. Changes in river
flow brought on by future shrinking of mountain glaciers anddecreased snowfall has the potential to wield serious impacts onhydroelectric power. Further, carbon absorption declines year byyear along with the growth of forests, making it difficult to maintaincarbon absorption over the long term.
Greenhouse gas emissions also cannot continue on the current
course. Bhutan aims to have an annual economic growth rate of10%. Combined with population increase, the country’s emissions
have the potential to exhibit a striking increase due to increased
consumption of fossil fuels for transportation and industrial fuel use,
increased heat demand for buildings and households in cold
regions and conversion of forests for other land uses. That is, there
are fears that over the mid- to long-term, emissions will become
positive.
While in developed nations and more developed countries (MDCs),
conventional infrastructure and social institutions are obstacles tothe transition to low-carbon societies, Bhutan, a least developed
country, has free rein to engage in transition. If Bhutan does notfollow conventional emissions-intensive development pathways,leapfrog-type, non-linear development toward a low-carbon andsustainable society may be possible. Such an achievement could
prove to be a valuable example of the way to climate stabilisation.
* This brochure was created based on the Ministry of the Environment’s“2016 Commissioned Work on the Promotion of International Low-carbon Research”.

This research targets
Bhutan, a country made up
of mountains, forests andvalley cities, and concerns
the potential up to 2050 for
non-linear development andcarbon neutrality.

Background
The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) with theNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) has been
conducting field study research over a two-year period from 2015
with a budget from the Research and Information Office of theGlobal Environment Bureau of the Ministry of the Environment,Japan.
IGES and NIES visited Bhutan in 2015 to initiate collection offundamental data. In 2016, utilising data collected and existing
projection methods (a low-carbon scenario formulation tool called
Extended Snapshot: ExSS), preliminary future projections wereperformed for the country’s greenhouse gas emissions andabsorption up to 2050. These showed the potential for the country’semissions to exceed its absorption in 2050 if additional low-carbon
measures are not introduced.
In addition, repeat visits in October 2016 brought opportunities for
opinion exchange on the preliminary future projections with local
policy-makers and researchers. As a result, a request for promotionof research was received from the National Environment
Commission of Bhutan, and anagreement on joint research wasreached with local research institutes
that promote climate change impact
assessment and research on
happiness levels in Bhutan.

Exploring carbon neutral development that diverges from the developed country model: Bhutan’s long-term strategies

Results of future projection of greenhouse gas emissions and absorption in Bhutan
increased proportion of buses in transportation mode share andincreased managed forest area was assumed based on
implementation of low-carbon measures.

Greenhouse gas emissions（ktCO2eq）

The Extended Snapshot (ExSS) tool was applied to projectgreenhouse gas emissions through 2050 for two types of scenarios,
the BaU (Business as Usual) scenario and the CM (Countermeasure)scenario. For the projections, first common values for socioeconomicchanges such as population, number of households, GDP andindustrial structure were set for both scenarios referring to Bhutan’s
statistics and plans, such as the National Accounts Statistics 2015
and the 11th Five Year Plan. Next, for the BaU scenario, no changes
were assumed for the energy efficiency of machinery on the energy
demand side, transportation mode share and land use. Meanwhile
for the CM scenario, improved energy efficiency of machinery,

Projection results show that in the BaU scenario greenhouse gas
emissions will exceed absorption in 2050, changing into positive
emissions. Although hydroelectric power will remain the majorenergy source, due to an increase in transport demand, petroleum
consumption will increase over 8 times that of 2012. In contrast,
while greenhouse gas emissions in the CM scenario will increase,sustainment of negative net emissions up to 2050 becomes possible,
based on suppression of emissions
compared to the BaU scenario using
low-carbon measures and an increaseLand-use changes
in carbon sequestration from 2012.
Agriculture
The measure most contributing toIndustrial processes
reductions in the CM scenario is
Freight transportation
forest management, which accounts
Passenger transportationfor over half of reduction amounts
Industry
compared to the BaU scenario.
Commercial

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0-2,000-4,000Residential-6,000Although at present projections
conducted based on available data
are preliminary, in order for Bhutan todevelop while maintaining carbon
neutrality, the introduction of lowcarbon measures is thought to beessential.

Net emissions (2012)-8,000Net emissions (BaU)-10,000

BaU
2012

2020

CMBaU
2030

CMBaU
2040

CMBaU

Net emissions (CM)

CM2050Results of greenhouse gas emissions projection

Future plans
Although the above outcomes were achieved in 2016, at the present
time future projections based on ExSS remain preliminary andfurther progress via cooperation with local people is essential. From
here on, projected figures considering adaptation to climate change
impacts on hydroelectric power and carbon absorption will beincorporated and applied to Bhutan.
Further, for future changes in the energy service demand ofdeveloping countries made up mainly of mountainous regions andvalley cities, projections that take not only economic growth into
consideration, but also use of forest resources and land use
conversion, must be made possible. For this purpose, cooperation
with experts that possess this knowledge is indispensable.
Accordingly, more precise projection of both the country’s future
greenhouse gas emissions and the effectiveness of low-carbon
measures would be made possible.
Additionally, although Bhutan has developed GNH (Gross NationalHappiness) as an indicator for national development goals,
internationally there are also indicators such as the SDGs. Future
research will examine the impacts of various scenarios and measures
on a variety of development goals, such as GNH and SDGs.

Contact

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Serious impacts
on natural
resources

Regional impact ofclimate change andmelting of glaciers

Need for natural
resource use

Impacts of climate changeand adaptation:

GHG emissions andtheir mitigation:

・Changes in river flow andhydroelectric power
・Decrease of carbon absorption capacity
by forests and forest management

Comparison of mitigation
scenarios under diverse
development patterns aimed
at carbon neutrality

Can Bhutan leapfrog to a
low-carbon and sustainable society
without following a carbon
intensive development path?
Development policies: Development and governance within carbon neutralityAssessment based on multiple indexes of well-being

Overall structure of research
Via this research, an examination of the potential in Bhutan fordevelopment policy up to 2050 geared toward not passing througha state of high energy consumption technological dependence will
be examined and additionally suggestions for low-carbon
development potential in other developing countries inferred.

2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama-cho, Miura-gun, Kanagawa, Japan
URL: http://www.iges.or.jp/en E-mail: lcs-rnet@iges.or.jp