Strategic Annual Report 2019
Putin’s Russia and its Foreign Policy

Putin’s Russia and its Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the International Economic Forum (SPIEF),
June 2019, Sankt Pertersburg. (Photo Reuters/AFLO)

Thirty years have passed since the end

economic base and a peculiar presenceof the Cold War. Since the collapse ofin the international community, due in

the Soviet Union, the global status ofpart to its “quasi-alliance” relationship

the Russian Federation has remainedwith the emerging superpower China.

one of the major issues in the postCold War world order. On the whole,

Putin has remained in power for 20

however, we must say that the Westyears since first inaugurated in 2000

has

not succeeded in establishing(from 2008 to 2012 he ran a “tandem”

amicable relations with Russia. Leaving

government with President Medvedev),

aside the question of whether we canand it is true that he implemented

describe the 2014 Ukrainian crisis aspolitical and economic liberalization

part of a new Cold War, it goes without

and overcame the chaos that followedsaying that Russia is one of the factors

the collapse of the Soviet Union andthat
liberalhas

destabilizedinternational

thecurrent

managed the economy through stable,order.

While

vertical control and the development ofstrengthening its assertiveness under thePutin administration, Russia has a weak
35

energy resources.

During the Ukrainian crisis in 2014,

replacement of local government heads

Putin annexed Crimea and Russia wasand the appointment of young people tosubjected to international sanctions,central government posts, and the powerincluding expulsion from the G8. At

balance between the Siloviki and thethe same time, in a world becoming

liberals is changing. It is believed that

increasingly

security

Putin himself is trying to test potential

and other areas, Russia continues tosuccessors by watching the performance

hold an important position as part ofof young people in these positions. With

Eurasia, together with such emerging

Putin’s approval ratings declining andsuperpowers as China and India. Frommass protests against the government

Japan’s point of view, Russia is notappearing at the local level, the Putin

only a neighboring country with whichadministration is nervous about local

Japan has a territorial issue, but is alsogovernance. The rise of young people

one directly linked to Japan’s security,entrusted with local governance andas seen in its efforts to gain a newbeing “put to the test” will be the key tofoothold in a region stretching from thethe future of Putin’s regime.

multipolarin

Arctic Ocean to the Indo-Pacific Ocean
through its “Pivot to the East” policy.

It is widely known that the Russian
economy is linked to oil prices. TheHowhasPutin’sRussia

evolvedchallenge for the Putin administration ispolitically and economically? What is

how to minimize the impact of oil pricePutin’s foreign policy? What impact

fluctuations on the economy and build awill it have on the international order,

robust industrial structure. Accordingly,

the East Asian region and Japan?

the current administration’s economic
policy is based on a contractionary fiscal

The Putin administration today ispolicy and is supported by advisers whosupported by an elite group centeredaspire to “liberal” economic policies.

on the executive branch comprising

At the same time, there is a tendency

the “Siloviki”, made up mainly ofto emphasize the role of the state

officials from the military ministries,

and to promote state intervention in

and a “liberal” faction. The former is

specific strategic industries. Adding

also dominant in the energy sector. In

to these basic policies are others

recent years, the Putin administration

formulated in response to changes

hasin

been

activelypromoting

thetheinternationalenvironment
36

Strategic Annual Report 2019
Putin’s Russia and its Foreign Policy

following the annexation of Crimea.

ThegeopoliticalcharacteristicsofIn other words, sanctions imposed byEurasia, where Russia is located, vary

the United States and the European

greatly depending on its relations

Union after the annexation of Crimea

with Europe and the United States,

have compelled Russia to implement awith the former Soviet republics and“forced import substitution” policy andthe countries of the Middle East, andto approach “Eastern countries” suchwith Japan, China, and other Asianas China and Turkey to obtain funding

countries. These factors define Putin’sand export destinations for its natural

basic foreign and security policies.

resources. In the energy sector, which
accounts for an important part of theRussia’s relations with the United States

Russian economy, the “Pivot to theand Europe have not fully recovered

East” is accelerating. However, thesefrom the confrontation that followed

measures have not been sufficient to

the Ukrainian crisis. From the Russian

revive the Russian economy, which has

point of view, the perception of Russia

been in a low-growth mode recently.

within the US establishment, regardlessDissatisfaction among the Russianof party, is a very unfavorable one, andpeople is rising steadily, as shown by theit is unlikely that the United Statessluggishness in real income growth andwill soften its policy toward Russia

increasing consumer debt. The Putinin the future. Even in areas such asadministration’s implicit social contractarms control where the United States

thatpoliticaland Russia were thought to be able tofreedom is beginning to collapse. We

cooperate, disagreements between theshould pay attention to how these cracks

two countries are conspicuous, as seen

will affect domestic politics.

in the invalidation of the INF Treaty.

barterssausagesfor

It would be desirable for Russia toconstruct a new arms control frameworkthat would include emerging China,
India and Iran, but such a proposal
would not be easily accepted by either
the United States or emerging regional
powers and, therefore, it would bedifficult to find a good starting point for
Russian dissenters at a demonstration, Sep. 2019, Moscow.
(Photo AFP/AFLO)
37

a dialogue with the United States. In its

relations with Europe, Russia has been

importantfrom

theviewpointoftrying to influence those who oppose

restraining China, which has been

the EU establishment to lessen theexpanding its influence in Central Asia

adverse impact on Russia by disrupting

through its “Belt and Road Initiative”

coordination among EU countries,(BRI).

while some European countries, such
as Italy and France, have been trying to

One of Putin’s most important policies

mend their relations with Russia. Russia

is the “Pivot to the East” policy, which

seems intent on “reintegration into theaims to strengthen relations withinternational

Asian countries that are gaining incommunity”

througheconomic and political weight. In recent

these efforts.

years, Russia has concluded FTAs
It is extremely important for Russia towith Vietnam and Singapore, therebybuild stable relations with the former

steadily building a foothold in Asia. The

Soviet republics in Central Asia and“Pivot to the East” policy itself had beenwith countries in the Middle East. Thisin place before relations with Europe

is because some regions in Central

and the United States deteriorated,

Asia have been shaken by international

but the Ukrainian crisis gave support

terrorism and drug pollution. Politicalto Russia’s eastward orientation. Inand economic stability in Central Asianparticular, its approach to China has

countries is desirable in preventing

become more important for restraining

these problems from spreading totheRussia. Good relations with Middle

2019, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang

Eastern countries are also necessary

visitedin stabilizing

the prices of energy“comprehensive strategic cooperation

resources, which are Russia’s main

partnership” that showed both at home

exports. Russia is seeking regional

and abroad that Sino-Russian relations

stability by reintegrating the former

constitute a “quasi-alliance”. On theSoviet

andother hand, there is the view that there

economically through such frameworks

are certain limits to the strengthening

as the Eurasianofand

blocthebothpolitically

Economic Union

ShanghaiUnitedStates.

RussiaChina-Russia

andIn

Septemberestablishedrelations.

aWhileCooperation

China and Russia are stage-managing aOrganization. The reintegration of thehoneymoon through initiatives such as

former Soviet bloc is also extremely“Pivot to the East” and BRI, Russia is38

Strategic Annual Report 2019
Putin’s Russia and its Foreign Policy

still wary of China’s “Ice Silk Road”

order that existed during the Coldinitiative. It has also been pointed

War. However, Russia’s influence as aout that Russia’s intention to possess

global actor remains significant, andintermediate-range

weapons

its “opportunistic” behavior, coupledeven in violation of the INF Treaty waswith the decline in US influence underto eliminate the asymmetry between

the Trump administration, has a non-China and Russia. Regardless of thenegligible impact on the international

reality surrounding the Russo-Chineseorder.

nuclear“quasi-alliance”, as Russia’s approaches
to China gain momentum, Japan’s

For Russia, Japan is positioned not only

position vis-à-vis Russia is changing. Inas a negotiation partner for the long-the past, some Russian experts viewed

standing territorial issue, but also as

Japan as a counterbalance to China,

an important piece in its “Pivot to thebut now they think that, with no sign

East” diplomacy, which aims to deepenof improvement in US-Russia relations,relations with neighboring countries

theconfrontationalby leveraging the development of theatmosphere between the United States

Russian Far East, Eastern Siberia, andandthe Arctic region. In the increasinglyincreasinglyChinahasputJapan-Russia

relations on the back-burner.

important Indo-Pacific region, what
weight should Japan give to its relations

39

In addition to these basic policies,

with Russia, a Eurasian power witha priority on national interests andabundant natural resources? As theopportunism are also factors shaping

strategic value of the Arctic region

Putin’s foreign and security policies.

increases in line with climate change,

The annexation of Crimea, triggered byhow does Japan position Russia in its

the Ukrainian crisis, and intervention

foreign policy? Despite good personalin the Middle East (Syria), in which

relationsthe US presence has declined, can be

Japan and Russia, there is no sign ofdescribed as opportunistic responses

a solution to the territorial dispute.

that give priority to their own interests

On the other hand, cooperation withand respond to the situation at hand.

Russia is indispensable for the stability

Today, Russia is neither able nor willingof the Northeast Asian region, and it

to establish the kind of international

is important to come up with effective

betweentheleadersof

cooperation

measures

withRussia

for global issues such as international
terrorism, drug pollution, and climatechange. Based on this recognition, and inlight of the fact that today’s good JapanRussia relations have become a valuableasset for Japanese diplomacy, it will benecessary once again to reconsider froma strategic perspective what Russia is toJapan and what role Russia can play.■40