JOURNAL OF COASTAL AND RIVERINE FLOOD RISK
Vol. 1, 2023, 2

Cumulative Land Subsidence in Populated Asian Coastal
CitiesHiroshi Takagi1, Anh Cao 2, and Miguel Esteban3
1takagi.h.ae@m.titech.ac.jp, Tokyo Institute of

Abstract
In contrast to sea-level rise, which is often associated withclimatic and environmental changes, land subsidence has largely
been overlooked in discussions regarding future adaptation tohigher sea water levels. In order to articulate the criticalcontribution of this phenomenon, this short paper provides areliable chart that details the historical progression of land
subsidence in densely populated East and Southeast Asian coastal
cities. The causes of subsidence at these locations are also
discussed based on existing literature. Land subsidence wasobserved to be one or two orders of magnitude faster than sealevel rise caused by anthropogenic global warming, and cancontinue unabated unless its root causes are addressed throughclear policies at the municipal level. Subsidence is clearly alocalized problem, and is thus easily overlooked by regional or
national governments. Nevertheless, once subsidence takes place
it cannot be reversed, and hence it is crucial to rapidly formulate
appropriate countermeasures when it is identified. The examplesof these Asian cities demonstrate that, if subsidence is recognized
and adequate policies are put in place and implemented, it can bebrought under control in a fairly short period of time.

Keywords
Asian coastal cities, Land subsidence, Long-term observations,Technology, Tokyo, Japan
2anh-cao@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp, The University ofTokyo, Tokyo, Japan
3esteban.fagan@gmail.com, Waseda University,
Tokyo, Japan
This paper was submitted on 9 February 2023.
It was accepted after double-blind review on 9 June
2023 and published online on 16 August 2023.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.48438/jcrfr.2023.0002
Cite as: “Takagi, H., Cao, A., & Esteban, M.
Cumulative Land Subsidence in Populated Asian
Coastal Cities. Journal of Coastal and Riverine
Flood
Risk,
1,
p.2.
https://doi.org/10.48438/jcrfr.2023.0002”
The Journal of Coastal and Riverine Flood Risk is acommunity-based, free, and open access journal forthe dissemination of high-quality knowledge on theengineering science of coastal and hydraulicstructures. This paper has been written andreviewed with care. However, the authors and thejournal do not accept any liability which might arise
from use of its contents. Copyright ©2023 by theauthors. This journal paper is published under a
CC-BY-4.0 license, which allows anyone toredistribute, mix and adapt, as long as credit isgiven to the authors.

Subsidence rate, Sea-level rise, Flood

1

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report projected global mean sea level rise (SLR)
by 2100 to be between 0.63 m – 1.01 m higher than the 1995 – 2014 period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (Fox-Kemper etal., 2021). Expert judgement estimates that for a 2⁰C degree warming, global mean SLR (GMSLR) could be between
0.36 m – 1.26 m by 2100 (Bamber et al., 2019). Such drastic changes in sea levels could have serious impacts on humandevelopment and infrastructure along the coastline.

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Low-lying coastal areas are the most vulnerable to flooding induced by SLR. Currently, almost 900 million people(accounting for 11% of the population of the world) are living in coastal areas that are lower than 10 m in elevation
above mean water levels (Haasnoot et al., 2021), which could grow to 1 billion people by mid-century (Oppenheimer etal., 2019). Vulnerability assessments have indicated that the possible damage induced by SLR to 136 major coastal
cities by midcentury could be $1.6 trillion under RCP 8.5 and that 1.13 billion people would be exposed to the impacts
of SLR and 100-year floods, with the highest proportion of vulnerable people concentrating in Asia (Neumann et al.,2015). China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam are the countries most burdened, in terms of exposed
population, and would remain so in the future (Neumann et al., 2015). After the middle of this century, vulnerable
coastal cities, especially those in developing countries, would have limited time to adapt to the impacts of SLR(Jevrejeva et al., 2016).
In addition to SLR, coastal deltaic cities are prone to various hazards that can result in flooding, including fluvial
and pluvial flooding due to heavy rains and a concentration of human settlement on the flood plains, coastal flooding, or
storm surges due to tropical or extra-tropical cyclones. Moreover, many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly
vulnerable as a result of sediment compaction or consolidation owing to the removal of oil, gas and water from thedelta’s underlying sediments, and the trapping of sediment in reservoirs upstream, in combination with SLR (Syvitski etal., 2009). In particular, many Asian deltaic cities are relying heavily on pumping groundwater for both domestic andindustrial uses, which has led to rapid land subsidence (Kaneko and Toyota, 2011). The IPCC Special Report on the
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate indicated that land subsidence is the most important cause of relative
SLR (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) continued to highlight that land
subsidence is among the most important drivers of coastal hazards in all coastal archetypes (Glavovic et al., 2022).
Globally, the observed rates of land subsidence induced by urbanization range from 6 – 100 mm per year (Bucx et al.,2015; Higgins, 2016), which is at least twice the rate of GMSLR over the same period (Higgins, 2016; Tessler et al.,2018). However, since land subsidence is still a gradual process, residents themselves may not be fully aware of thethreat (Takagi et al., 2021).
Therefore, it is crucial to understand current land subsidence trends in populated deltaic coastal cities and to inform
people of such challenges. Besides, looking at case studies of areas that have experienced land subsidence can also
provide valuable insights for adaptation to future SLR (Jamero et al., 2017; Esteban et al., 2019). Even in the event of
frequent flooding due to the ground being lowered as a result of severe land subsidence, local residents still preferincremental adaptation measures to relocation (Jamero et al., 2017). Esteban et al. (2019) provided evidence that coastal
cities chose hard protection measures as responses to relative SLR and, as people living in such low-lying areas havetraditionally lived with seasonal flooding, there is a certain resilience to minor floods. However, in the near future, due
to the combined effects of SLR and land subsidence, floods could occur in any season of the year and become more
serious (Wang et al., 2012; Takagi et al., 2016; Cao et al., 2021). If subsidence is not taken into account when
formulating adaptation strategies, not only will seawalls become ineffective in the future, but they would also turn entire
cities into water reservoirs when overtopped (Takagi et al., 2017), requiring much effort to pump the floodwater out.
Therefore, special attention should be paid to this issue to promote preparedness for possible major flooding events inthe near future.
This short communication presents a comparison of the cumulative land subsidence that has taken place in some of
the most populated Asian deltaic coastal cities, including a brief historical overview and what mitigation measures were
implemented. The relevance of the paper lies mostly in the compilation of one figure that will give readers animmediate understanding of the magnitude of the problem. Although similar figures in the past have been widely
quoted in academia, some of those presented in available literature seem both out of date and/or have untraceable data
used in their elaboration. The authors are releasing this figure into the public domain, given that it is important for
researchers working on SLR and land subsidence issues to have reliable and up-to-date figures.

2

Methodology and Data

To analyze the time history of land subsidence in Asian coastal cities, the authors scrutinized observation records forthe 11 sites listed in Table 1 (the location of which is shown in Figure 1). The references cited include peer-reviewed
academic journal articles, books, and reports published by government agencies. The data are typically the result of
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long-term ground level surveys at particular points, but recent data may include some results from GPS (GNSS)
surveys. The cumulative subsidence and the maximum subsidence rate based on the extracted data are indicated. As the
cumulative subsidence represents a total value for a given observation period, including in some cases (relatively) shortterm observations, the actual displacement may be higher. The maximum subsidence rate also depends on the frequencyof measurements, as it is calculated by dividing the increment of subsidence by the corresponding period of time1.
Therefore, the more frequently that observations were made, the larger the maximum subsidence rate that is in somecases measured. Since the beginning of the 21st century, remote sensing technologies such as interferometric synthetic
aperture radar (InSAR) have been used with increasing frequency to determine the spatial distribution of land
subsidence, but this paper does not include any results from such technology.
Table 1: List of the data sources used in the analysis.
City

Location

Data period(Year)

Cumulative
subsidence (m)TokyoKoto Ward

1918–2018

4.52

Maximum
subsidence rate
(cm/yr)19.6

Shanghai

1921–2013

2.0

10

Bangkok

1933–2003

1.65

30.5

1936–2017

2.93

16.4

1955–1998

1.88

9.1

Osaka

Konohana
Ward

Taipei
Niigata

Nishi Ward

1957–2020

2.87

53.3

NagoyaMinato Ward

1962–2020

1.33

24.7

1964–2002

1.15

6

1971–2013
1974–2013
1992–2019

1.68
4.0
1.68

10.9
10.9
10.9

ManilaTianjin
Jakarta
YunlinPluit

ReferenceTokyo
Metropolitan
Government(2018)
Xue et al. (2005),
Chai et al. (2004),
CCOP (2013)
Kaneko andToyota (2011)
Osaka City (2019)
Kaneko andToyota (2011)
Niigata Prefecture(2021)
Aichi Prefecture(2021)
Kaneko andToyota (2011)
Gong et al. (2018)
ITB (2016)
Information forPrevention andMonitoring ofLand Subsidence
in Taiwan (2018)

1

The maximum subsidence rate presented here was calculated by the authors based on long-term observation data.
Therefore, exact values may not be identical to those presented in other literature. For example, Endo et al. (2001)
indicate 23.89 cm/yr as the maximum rate for Nishi-Kasai, Edogawa-ku in Tokyo.
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Figure 1: Location map of the 11 cities scrutinized in this study.

3

Results and Discussion

Figure 2 shows the historic progression of land subsidence, created based on the data shown in Table 1. Historicalobservations for Tokyo were the oldest among the 11 sites, with records dating back to 1918, followed by Shanghai in
1921 and Bangkok in 1933. The figure also shows Global Mean Sea Level Rise (GMSLR) based on long-term tide
records and satellite radar altimeters (since 1993) (Church and White, 2011; Veng and Andersen, 2020). Landsubsidence is 10 to 100 times greater than GMSLR. In contrast to GMSLR, which has been steadily rising over the lastcentury, the trend in land subsidence shows characteristic phases e.g. periods when the rate of subsidence is mild, very
steep, or suddenly flattens out. Nevertheless, it is important to note that once subsidence occurs it is irreversible, even if
the root cause is removed.
One reason for the early recognition of land subsidence in Tokyo was the frequent ground level surveying that took
place following the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. In 1933, a 35-meter observation well was installed in Koto Ward
to scientifically verify land subsidence in the layer of Holocene deposits (Inaba et al., 1969). The reason for the lull insubsidence in Tokyo and Osaka recorded in the 1940s resides in the cessation of industrial economic activity during
World War II (Endo et al., 2001). During postwar period there was rapid economic growth in the 1950s and 1960s, andas a result large amounts of groundwater were extracted for industrial use and building heating and cooling systems,
which caused rapid subsidence (Aihara et al., 1969, Tsuchiya 2014). However, it should be noted that groundwater was
not only used for industrial purposes, but also for domestic water supply (for example in the Taipei Basin since about
1895, see Hwang and Wu, 1969).

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Figure 2: Cumulative land subsidence in Asian deltaic and coastal cities2.
Shanghai and Tianjin represent significant examples of land subsidence in China, although more than 50 major
cities are affected by it in the country. Since 1950, the total estimated financial losses due to land subsidence in China
amount to approximately 72.8 billion USD, with direct damage to assets being approximately 145.7 million USD
annually (Yin et al., 2006). Shanghai, situated in the Yangtze River Delta, began sinking at about the same time asTokyo due to extensive groundwater pumping. In both cities, land subsidence almost ceased by the 1970s due toregulations on groundwater extraction. However, for the case of Shanghai subsidence once again re-started in the 1990s
due to the expansion of groundwater exploitation and urbanization, especially the construction of high-rise buildings(Xue et al., 2005). Annual land subsidence data for Tianjin is only available from 1971, though it started as early as
1923. From 1958, land subsidence gradually increased from several millimeters to 20 mm/year before rapidly
increasing in 1970s (Hu et al., 2002; Xue et al., 2005). Similar to Shanghai, land subsidence in urban areas of Tianjin
slowed down due to regulations on groundwater extraction established in 1986. However, land subsidence is still
happening in suburban areas (Xue et al., 2005, Gong et al., 2018).
The subsidence rate in Niigata was particularly fast, with an annual rate of over 50 cm observed in 1959. In addition
to the softness of the Echigo Plain, where Niigata is located, the pumping of groundwater for natural gas extraction (asmethane gas was dissolved in water) was thought to be the main reason for the subsidence. Gas extraction companies
initially denied that their activities were having any effect on subsidence, but investigations revealed it to be a major
factor (Momotake, 1996). Subsequently, regulations were put in place to control extraction, and by the 1970s the rate of
subsidence had slowed considerably.
In the last two decades the sinking of Jakarta and Yunlin (Taiwan) has been remarkably fast and shows no sign ofabating. As for Jakarta, recent land subsidence has slightly slowed, but still the GPS survey results for 2015-2019 showthat the northern coast is sinking at a rate of 6.2 cm per year (Abdullah et al., 2021). In Yunlin, the risk of coastal
2This figure is published on Public Commons under the license CC BY-SA 4.0 for the purpose of free sharing andredistribution. Please cite as: Takagi H., Cao A., Esteban M. (2023) Cumulative Land Subsidence in Populated Asian
Coastal Cities, Journal of Coastal and Riverine Flood Risk, Vol. 1, paper 2
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disasters is rapidly increasing due to a combination of ongoing land subsidence and coastal erosion (Wei-Po et al.,2022). In Bangkok, pronounced land subsidence started in the 1970s and reached its most critical state in the early
1980s, when it was as high as 12 cm/year (Phien-wej et al., 2006).
As a consequence of land subsidence, the risk and consequences of flooding can increase, and such visible effects
are likely to prompt an investigation into land subsidence. In fact, land subsidence was recognized as a major issue inOsaka, Niigata, and Nagoya due to the increase in recorded damage from coastal flooding caused by storm surges due
to typhoons or winter storms (Osaka Prefecture, 2004; Momotake, 1997; Ministry of the Environment, 2020). The
historic flood in Jakarta in January 2013 was exacerbated by land subsidence, which was estimated to have increased
the inundation area by 17.6% (Moe et al., 2016). However, in areas like Jakarta, where residents are accustomed tofluvial floods, communities might not necessarily recognize the effect that subsidence is having on aggravating risks,even when their houses are actually sinking rapidly and, consequently, the municipal government may fail to takesignificant action (Takagi et al., 2021). For Manila, the sea-level change recorded by tide gauges can be explained only
by regional SLR before 1965, but the changes after 1965 cannot be explained without including coastal subsidence(Zoysa et al., 2021). However, most sectors of the government are oblivious or ignore the fact that subsidence is taking
place (Rodolfo and Siringan, 2006). Thus, it is important to increase awareness amongst municipal authorities as well as
normal citizens, in order to formulate adaptation pathways that can mitigate land subsidence and future SLR, with thelong-term aim of improving the resilience of coastal communities and reduce their risk to future disasters.

4

Conclusion

This short communication provides a chart that details the progress of land subsidence of 11 coastal cities in Eastand Southeast Asian countries, along with the global mean sea level rise. This severe land subsidence took place inparallel with economic development, and was typically caused by urban development and groundwater extraction. Landsubsidence was found to be one to two orders of magnitude faster than sea level rise. While land subsidence has stoppedin Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, and slowed down in Niigata, Shanghai, Taipei, and Tianjin, it is still ongoing in Jakarta,
Manila, Yunlin, and Bangkok.
Land subsidence may be occurring in many other places where urban development is progressing rapidly andgroundwater is extracted for domestic and industrial purposes. However, in many areas it is probably unrecognized, as
there are few places where fixed-point precise observations of ground elevation are being carried out. Once land
subsidence occurs the ground level cannot be returned to its original level. However, the examples discussed in thiscommunication indicated that, if land subsidence is identified and dealt by through regulations, it can be slow down or
stopped relatively quickly. Hence, the authors hope that the figure provided will lead city planners and disaster risk
management practitioners to seriously consider the fundamental challenges posed with land subsidence to sustainableurban development.

Author contributions (CrediT)
Hiroshi Takagi1: Conceptualization, Data correction and analysis, Literature analysis, Visualization, Writing –original draft. Anh Cao2: Conceptualization, Data correction and analysis, Literature analysis, Writing – review &editing. Miguel Esteban3: Conceptualization, Data correction and analysis, Literature analysis, Writing – review &editing.

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