Strategic Annual Report 2019
What is the “Axis” for a New Order on the Korean Peninsula?

What is the “Axis” for a New Order on the Korean Peninsula?

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Summit Meeting, Feb. 2019, Hanoi. (Photo AP/AFLO)

In

November

2017,

NorthKorea

the wake of North Korea’s participation

declared the completion of its nuclear

in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics

force and took a substantial stepin February 2018 and resulted in thetoward “dialogue mode.” In April

first North-South summit in 11 years atof the following year, it announced

Panmunjom in April of the same year.

a voluntary moratorium of nuclear

In addition, seeking to simultaneously

and intercontinental ballistic missileadvance denuclearization and establish(ICBM) tests and the abandonment of its

a peace regime, the South Korean

nuclear test site. With this as a turning

government

point, the situation on the Korean

between the United States and North

Peninsula began to transform rapidly

Korea and, in March, it obtained aas other countries with various motives

promise from both the United States

became involved. The South Koreanand North Korea via a special envoy

government under President Moon Jae-to attend the first-ever summit between

in, which was inaugurated in 2017 underthe two countries.

focusedonmediationa banner of peaceful coexistence andco-prosperity with North Korea, broke

Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un, Chairman

the ice. North-South contact resumed inof the State Affairs Commission of24

Strategic Annual Report 2019
What is the “Axis” for a New Order on the Korean Peninsula?

North Korea, turned to active summit

South Korea stepped in for the third

diplomacy and made a surprise visittime and attempted to expand its roleto Beijing as his first overseas trip atfrom “mediator” to “arbitrator”. By

the end of March, immediately aftermaking

the agreement on a US-North Korea

with North Korea at the North-Southsummit. At that time, Chairman Kim

summit in September that included

Jong-un secured China’s support foreasing military tensions, deepening

the US-DPRK summit while seeking

cooperation and reaffirming the DPRK’s

understanding of North Korea’s position

denuclearization, South Korea aimed

that the denuclearization process beto advance North-South relations andphased in.

use it as a springboard for US-DPRK

anoverarching

agreement

dialogue. However, the establishment of25

The US-DPRK summit meeting wasa peace regime on the Korean Peninsula

held in Singapore in June, and the twoand the denuclearization of North Korea

leaders confirmed the direction of awere essentially issues to be discussed

new US-DPRK relationship, a peace

between the United States and Northregime, and denuclearization. In theKorea and, since the United States,

run-up to the US-DPRK summit, there

Japan and other countries concerned

were further mediation efforts by themaintained a cautious stance within theROK government through anotherframework of international economic

North-South summit in Panmunjom

sanctions on North Korea, South Korea

and support by China through a China-

faced limitations in using economic

DPRK summit in Dalian, both held incooperation as leverage in advancing

May 2018.

inter-Korean relations.

However, the broad and vague agreement

The second US-DPRK summit meeting

between the leaders of the United States(Hanoi) was held in February 2019,and North Korea did not bridge thebut the meeting ended in failure due togap between the two countries on the

differences of opinion between Northdetails of the denuclearization process

Korea, which insisted on a drastic

and, in the course of the high-level

relaxation of economic sanctions intalks held afterward, differences overexchange for the abandonment of thespecific measures for denuclearization

Nyongbyon nuclear site alone, andsurfaced. Under such circumstances,

the United States, which insisted onthe abandonment of all weapons of

reducing the scale of its regular US-

mass destruction (WMD) – including

ROK joint military exercises, and has

chemical and biological weapons – andcontinued to express its intention tomissile-related facilities.

carry on with dialogue by taking theposition that it does not regard North

Since then, North Korea has continued

Korea’s launch of short-range ballistic

to employ its two-pronged tactic of

missiles as a problem. It is thoughtlauding President Trump personallythat President Trump’s calculations

and criticizing the US government inon establishing diplomatic legacy andan attempt to win concessions from theusing this to influence domestic politics

United States. Moreover, while carefully

are behind this.

calculating the tolerance of the UnitedStates, it has repeatedly conducted test
launches of short-range ballistic missiles,
new multiple rocket launchers, andSLBMs (submarine-launched ballisticmissiles) (a total of 12 launches between
May and October 2019), and is trying
to apply both hard and soft pressure
toward its own self-imposed deadlineof year’s end. On the other hand, Chinaand Russia are moving closer to North
Korea, out of concern that tensions
might return and with the intention ofusing their influence over North Korea
as a diplomatic card (a Russia-NorthKorea summit meeting was held inApril 2019, and China-DPRK summit
meetings were held in January and June2019).
Since the Singapore summit, the UnitedStates has maintained its policy ofNorth Korea test-fired a “super-large multiple rocket launcher”
at an undisclosed location, Oct. 2019.
(Photo KNS/KCNA/AFP/AFLO)

President Trump and Chairman Kim
again met on the northern side ofPanmunjom at the end of June 2019, andthe resumption of talks was announced.
However, at the Stockholm workinglevel talks held in October, the dispute
over denuclearization measures andincentives did not seem to be settled.
Needlesstosay,

theprocessofdenuclearizing a country requires morethan 10 years even if it proceeds smoothly.
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Strategic Annual Report 2019
What is the “Axis” for a New Order on the Korean Peninsula?

It is inevitable that negotiations between(FFVD)”, and this has to be shared

the United States and North Korea,

among the countries concerned. In

which harbor deep mutual distrust,addition, to attain FFVD, North Korea’s

will take a long time. It is all the more

nuclear inventory of existing nuclear

true because there seems to be a wide

weapons and related facilities must be

gap in perceptions of denuclearization

declared and identified. Only under

between the US and DPRK. What issuch conditions should what is widely

genuinely needed today, therefore, isknown as phased denuclearization andfor the countries concerned to reconcile

compensation measures be discussed.

their respective visions of the regional
order with the denuclearization ofIn addition to the denuclearization

North Korea as the first step.

issue, it is necessary to solve not only theICBM issue, which the United States isFurthermore, when considering concrete

particularly concerned about, but alsomeasures for denuclearization, we should

the issue of short-range and medium-not forget the fact that comprehensive

range missiles, which pose a greater

multilateralincludingthreat to neighboring countries, as aconcrete denuclearization measures,

package. Only when these perceptions

such as Joint Statement 9.19 (2005) andare shared by the countries concerned

Joint Statement 2.13 (2007) at the six-will North Korea realize the need toparty talks, have already been reached.

shift from the tactic it has employed

Despite such agreements, the disputes

since the Agreed Framework (1994) toover procedures and interpretations ofbuy time and to make its possession ofdeclaration, verification, and reward

nuclear weapons a fait accompli.

agreements

eventually allowed North Korea to buytime to improve its nuclear and missile

Furthermore,

theeffectivenessofcapabilities.

existing economic sanctions against
North Korea must be ensured in order to27

Based on this lesson, it should beelicit a sincere response from the North.

reaffirmed that the most important

The recent revelation of North Korea’s

precondition for a permanent peace

illicit import and export “network”

on the Korean Peninsula is North

indicates that sanctions will not be

Korea’s denuclearization, namely “finalfully effective until import and export

and fully verified denuclearization

control systems are shared among thecountries

concerned.

Strengthening

with the United States. The Japan-export and import controls on strategicROK General Security of Militaryandwill

Information Agreement (GSOMIA) iscontribute not only to resolving North

a symbol of such linkage and must be

Korea issues but also to maintaining

maintained regardless of Japan-ROK

the regional and international orders

bilateral relations.

nuclear-relatedmaterials

as international public goods. We urge
all countries concerned to agree on thisOnly

whentheprocessofpoint and work together to improve theirdenuclearization proceeds and tensions

capabilities.

are eased under this premise can Japan
become involved in the “bright future

The Japan-US-ROK trilateral frame-

after denuclearization” that President

work is particularly important for

Trump has dangled before North

Japan in considering the formation ofKorea. Negotiations on the pending

an order on the Korean Peninsula withbilateral issues between Japan andthe denuclearization of North Korea

North Korea may then be incorporated

as a starting point. The greater the gap

into the process. At the same time,

between neighboring countries, the freer

however, it may be necessary to quietly

the hand North Korea will have and, ifstart discussing the risks in the event ofthe independent action of one country to

failed negotiations on denuclearizing

secure leverage on North Korea hinders

North Korea and restricting its missiles,

a coordinated response among theincluding a deterrent regime led by thecountries concerned, denuclearization

United States and Japan.

will be further delayed. Japan for its partopposes any easing of sanctions before

While there are some outstanding issues

North Korea takes concrete action to

between Japan and South Korea at

denuclearize and Japan must makepresent, it is necessary to calmly resolve

efforts so that the US and ROK shareeach issue, bearing in mind the major

this posture. In order to respond to thedevelopments on the Korean Peninsula

missile threat posed by North Korea, it

and the importance of cooperation

is essential for Japan and South Korea

among Japan, the United States, andto cooperate in supporting the actions

South Korea.■of the US military, and to maintain thelink between their respective alliances
28