GEOSS and AWCI -2

Prediction and evaluation of influences by precipitation
change on the multi scale to meteorological, hydrologicaland vegetation environments in Mongolia

G. Davaa
Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Mongolia

Tokyo, Japan– 26th Nov. 2013

BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECTThe 4th assessment report of IPCC projects that:
Rainfall likely to increase at the high latitudes, while thesubtropical region likely to become drier. Therefore, future climateof Mongolia can be highly variable in time and space with great
uncertainties (National communication report-2).
TEMPERATURE AND DRYNESS ARE INCREASED (Glaciermelt, permafrost degradation, drying rivers and lakes, decrease in
ground water level, natural desertification).
Droughts in the last decades threaten the people of the country
that is highly dependent on the natural resources.

IWRM and Desertification
Mitigation to desertification, as degradation of land, caused
by a variety of factors, such as climate change and humanactivities, for that the solution could be a development andimplementation of IRBM strategy and plans.
"Integrated river basin management (IRBM) plans arebeing and will be developed for 29 basins in Mongolia.
•Needs:• Advancing current monitoring system•Climate and hydrological modeling and assessment•Improving data shearing mechanism• Environmental Data integration and assimilation system

Data availability and urgent needs for improvement

Current monitoring system

Needs:•to increase density ofhydrological andmeteorological network;• to use GCM, RCM,
Distributed HydrologicalModel, and Land Surface
Models for studying climatechange impacts in Mongolia.

• IMHE, NAMEM need high class level instruments, advanced
Automated weather station (AWS) for River HydrologicalAutomatic Station (RHAS), Water and Energy Cycle Station(WECS), and Flux WECS in order to understand change inconditions of water and energy cycle and to estimate water andenergy balance for elements with more accurate measurement datato assist IWRM.

Overall Goal
To enhance hydrological and meteorological network in Mongolia tosupport network’s optimization, harmonization and unification
requirements, rising from weather forecasting, hydrological andclimate modeling techniques for provision of better services,knowledge, awareness to people of Mongolia for environmental
protection, water resources supply, weather forecasting anddisasters prediction and adaptation to the climate change
Project Purpose:
1. To build up an advanced observation system (with a nearly real time
data acquisition system of monitoring elements of water and energy
cycle by integrating satellites (e.g., AMSR2 and SMAP) and in situ
water and energy cycle stations (RHAS, WECS an Flux WECS)
2) To improve and develop NAMEM monitoring system (To upgrade
some NAMEM stations)Propose of the project
3. To carry out intensive observations on elements of water cycle andquality using the advanced observation system.
4. To understand mechanism of unstable change of rainfall on the multiscale in space and time5) To assess influence of precipitation change on water/energy cycle andvegetation in study areas
6) To construct monthly and yearly more precise water balance in theTuul river mid-upper basin7) To simulate and predict of water cycle using DHM, Land surface
model and GCM and/or RCM for supporting to build up a high accuracy
prediction model of weather forecasting8) To develop models of early warning of drought and storm
rainfall/flood9) Open the data of observation/monitoring10) Development capacity (Capacity building: training course, WS, etc.)

Outputs
1) Advanced monitoring system of water and energy cycle with satellite
observation and in situ water cycle stations with nearly real time dataacquisition system (NAS)2) More precise monitoring by advanced AWS of NAMEM and NAS
3) Revealing unstable change mechanism of rainfall on the multi scale inspace and time4) Multi scale evaluation of climate change and/or global warming5) Early warning systems of drought and flood6) Better and precise estimation of water resources and optimal operation
system of water resources for future7) Prediction of water cycle and climate change considering hydrologicalconditions8) Capacity building9) Support for sustainable and green developments and JCM (JointCrediting Mechanism) /BOCM (Bilateral Offset Crediting mechanism)
between Japan and Mongolia

Area to be covered by the Project
Multi-scale area
A. Whole of Mongolia
B. Tuul river basin (150 x 300 km)
C. Central Mongolian Plateau (200 x 200 km)❐ Whole of Mongolia❐Tuul river basin（basin（150 x 300 km ）❐Mongolian Plateau（Plateau（２00 x 200200 km）km）

Project Activities
i) Monitoring and Intensive observations by Advanced monitoring
system to produce water and energy cycle information with satellite
observation and in situ water cycle parametersii) Data analysis of the existing data for development and calibration ofmulti scale evaluation of climate change modelsiii) Numerical model studies to understand better and precise
estimation of water resources, unstable change mechanism of rainfall
and prediction of water cycle and climate change consideringhydrological conditions and also to support early warning systems ofdroughtiv) Data base for optimal operation system of water resources forfuturev) Training courses and WS, to enchase research capacity building of
the Mongolian hydro-meteorological service and to provide projectsustainability.

Project Activities
Counterpart members: 6 project members and 3 support members
IMHE, NAMHEM and NUM, MUST, UB Government, Mongolia
Office space, running cost by counter part.
Equipment: Existing state meteorological, hydrological stations, soiland vegetation laboratory, Numerical weather prediction bureau
Input from the Japanese Government:
Key expert: Prof. Ichirow Kaihotsu (HU: Hiroshima University)
Experts and consultants: 7 experts from 5 Universities of Japan (Uts,KU, HoU, HU, ChU)
Supporting team: 7 members from 5 Universities and Institutes, Japan
Contents of training courses, seminars and workshops

Instruments will be installed
1. Advanced 5 automated weather stations for supporting NAMEM
monitoring system
2. RHAS: River Hydrological Automatic stations to monitor river flow
elements.
3. WECS: Water and Energy Cycle Station monitor fundamental
elements of meteorology and hydrology.
4. Flux WECS to monitor turbulent flux by a sonic anemometer andCO2
5. Advanced computerized system

Implementation Schedule
Period: May, 2014 〜 December, 20192014:May-November, 2014: Preparation for project, Investigation of study areas,
Fundamental investigation of water and energy cycle and the relevant routine data
December, 2014: Preparation for installation of all the stations and calibration
2015:
January-March: Analysis of the relevant routine data, preparation for installation ofall the stations and calibration
April-July: Installation of all the stations
August: Start of monitoring of all the stations and satellites, Intensive observations I
September: Intensive observations II, Workshop (Hiroshima)
October- December: Data analysis of all the stations, Numerical analysis
December: Training course (Tokyo)………………………………………………………………………………………
2019:
January-June: Final data analysis of all the stations, Final numerical analysis
July: Workshop (Tokyo)
November: Final reportThank You