REDD＋とは何か？
REDD+の概念、背景、歴史と主な課題

What is REDD+?
Concept, background, history andmain challenges of REDD+

Contents of this presentation
Characteristics of tropical rainforests
ex. Mixed dipterocarp forest
Conservation/rehabilitation of tropical rainforests– biomass, biodiversity
REDD+ and Climate change
What should we do?

An undisturbed dipterocarp forest in Southeast Asia
may have:

Tall canopy height 40-50 m
Emergent trees height > 60 m
Large aboveground biomass 400-600 t
ha-1

High species diversity• more than 100 tree species ha-1
• Sometimes more than 200 tree species ha-1
• 1174 tree species in a 52 ha plot in Sarawak,Malaysia.
• About 1300 tree species in whole Japan.
from North to South, total 37,000,000 ha• Fewer mature trees for a species.
• No dominant tree species• Large variation in tree size

個体数および樹種数が同じでも、ある樹種の個体数が極端に多い場合、多様性（複雑さ）は低くなる。熱帯雨林では左の図のように、非常に多くの樹種が、特別な優占種を持つことなく混ざり合っている。
Suppose the same number of species (expressed as different colors) andtotal number of individuals (dots),
if a number of individuals of a specific species becomes dominant, diversity becomes decreased.
A number of species are mixed without dominant species in tropical rainforests.

Numberofcolors:100
Number of dots: 100

Former Soviet Union
Japan 380,000km2
22,400,000km2
382 species
730species
China
9,590,000km2
NorthAmerican
continent
2,200 species
21,960,000km2
950 Species
Bukit Soeharto
10 km2> 1000 species
Numbers of Longhorn beetles and surveyed areasummarized by H. Makihara

Tropical planted forests can accumulate Carbon
comparable to or larger than those in primary
forests within 50 years.
50 years old dipterocarp stands,
stem biomass > 400 t ha-1
Hiratsuka et al. J For Res (2005) 10:487–491
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10310-005-0166-7

One or two species exotic tree species wereplanted in a plot• Remaining natural forests should be protected for biodiversity
conservation.
• Only around 10% of world forests are protected as national parks
and nature conservation area.
• Officially protected forests are not conserved well because ofresource limitation both in human and money.
• We need to improve management of timber production forests inthe tropics.
• Logged forests are much better than no forests
Key Reference:
ITTO/IUCN Guidelines for the conservation and sustainable use of
biodiversity in tropical timber production forests
http://www.itto.int/policypapers_guidelines/

Rehabilitation of degraded forest
land is for local livelihood
No impacts on biodiversity in short term but
may have positive impact, if the plantedarea is managed properly.
Lessons from past rehabilitation efforts areavailable at
http://www.cifor.org/rehab/

GHG emission from deforestationand forest degradation

森林減少および森林劣化からの温暖化ガス排出The
concept of REDD is that reward the reduction of
REDDは森林からの排出削減に支払いを行う。
green house gas emission from forests.

Pastemissions
過去の排出量Estimatedemissions
過去の排出による(Baseline)
予測排出量

排出削減量
Reduced emissions
Implementationof REDD
REDDの実施

Actualemission
実際の排出量Time時間
排出削減量に対して支払いがなされる。
Reduced emissions to be rewarded

Background of REDD+REDD• has a huge potential• is cheap• can be done quickly• can produce win-win-win outcomesAngelsen 2009 Will REDD make a difference?
arborvitae issue 40 p10
http://www.iucn.org/about/work/programmes/forest/fp_news_events/fp_news_arborvitae/?4016/arborvitae-Issue-40

Activities of REDD+• Reducing emission from deforestation• Reducing emission from forest degradation• Conservation of Forest Carbon Stocks• Sustainable Management of Forest• Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks
We have been working hard on these issues even before
REDD+ emerged but we do not have much success.
See Realising REDD+ from CIFOR
http://www.cifor.org/online-library/browse/viewpublication/publication/2871.html

Why might we be optimistic?
• the volume of finance will be sufficient• the high-level political attention andengagement at the national level• REDD finance will be performance-based• As an idea, REDD+ is a success story• But REDD+ faces huge challenges• It is well documented in the CIFOR bookAnalysing REDD+

According to The Emissions Gap Report 2012 A UNEP Synthesis Report
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012/
The report gives an updated estimate of the 2020 emissions gap of 8 to 13 gigatonnes ofequivalent CO2, larger than earlier estimates because of higher than expected economic
growth.
Forestry sector are expected to cut 1.3-4.2 Gt-CO2e for bridging the emission gap.

Emission from deforestation and forest degradation• IPCC (2007) 8.4 Gt in 2004
• http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html• Science (2012)
2.97 Gt (only deforestation)
2.09-4.47 Gt 90% Confidence interval
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6088/1573.abstract

Emission reduction potential of avoiding deforestation• Nabuurs et al. (2007) P559 Table 9.3
3.95 Gt - CO2 year-1 (less than 100USD/tCO2)
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter9.pdf

How much will we we have achieved?
Ex. Recently approved VCS REDD+ Projects• Rimba Raya Indonesia
https://vcsprojectdatabase2.apx.com/myModule/Interactive.asp?Tab=Projects&a=2&i=674&lat=-2.78051067417254&lon=112.170133504944&bp=1

131 million t CO2 over 30years
4.4 million t CO2 year-1• Mai Ndombe, Democratic Republic of Congo•

https://vcsprojectdatabase2.apx.com/myModule/Interactive.asp?Tab=Projects&a=2&i=934

175 million t CO2 over 30 years
5.8 million t CO2 year-1• The Purus Project, Brazil•

https://vcsprojectdatabase2.apx.com/myModule/Interactive.asp?Tab=Projects&a=2&i=963&lat=%2D8%2E994141&lon=%2D69%2E451007&bp=1

Total 1,341,205t-CO2 over the first 10 years
0.13 million t CO2 year-1
They are not enough to fill the emission gap.

Conclusion 結論• Better to conserve forests rather than torehabilitate after deforestation/forestdegradation.
• 破壊された森林を修復するよりも、無用の破壊を避け森林を保全することが肝心• We need REDD+ activities at national andinternational level to mitigate climate change.
• 気候変動緩和には国、国際的なREDDプラスの取組が重要