First WEPA Workshop :- Theme 2:
Climate Change Impacts To The Water Environment And Adaptation Options

CLIMATE CHANGE:POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESAND
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN MALAYSIAZUBAIDI JOHAR
National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM)
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (NRE), MALAYSIAOUTLINE
Introduction• Climate Change Impacts Study – Projection Model• Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Malaysian
Water Resources• Assessing Vulnerability and Strategies of Adaptation•1.

INTRODUCTION•

Initial National Communication (2000) recommended the needfor a Regional Model for finer resolution of global climate
simulations.

•Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in
Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050.

•IPCC, Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) warming of the climate
system is unequivocal.

•Significant climate change impacts are now unavoidable.

Observed Climate Change

Surfacetemperature(ºC)

GLOBAL*MALAYSIA**

1906-2005

1968-2002

0.74

0.49 – 0.91

1993-2003
1986-2006* IPCC 4TH ASESSMENT1961-2003
REPORT (AR4), 2007** INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION, 2000** NATIONAL COASTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX STUDY,DID, 2007
Sea level rise(mm/yr)

1.83.1

1.25

Up stream

Irrigation

down stream

STORMS WATER

Floods Magnitude

Tmn Sri Muda, ShahAlam, Dec1995

Kuching 2003

Pet. Jaya, 2000

Kuala Lumpur, 2005
Shah Alam 2006

Sibu, Sarawak, Feb 2009

Droughts

The IPCC has started work on the preparation of its Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5).
Malaysia is preparing her Second National Communication (NC2)under the UNFCCC to further integrate climate change issues andimpacts into the national and local strategic and development plans.
3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2:
WG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Inventory
WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A)
WG 3 - Mitigation
Working Group 2 (WG2) Findings from AR4 Expectations for AR5:water resources sub-sector Strategies of Adaptation

2.

NAHRIMs Climate Change Study•

A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular
Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model ofPeninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed•

Downscaling global climate change simulation data
(Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) thatare at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular
Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km).

•Able to quantify the impact of the complex topographicaland land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its
climate conditions.

Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids
which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as blue. The land grids which areused in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.

Model Components
Atmospheric Model (MM5)

MM5 (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model) from NCAR (National Center for
Atmospheric Research)
non-hydrostatic model
can be downscaled even to 0.5km spatial resolution
able to capture the impact of steep topography of Peninsular Malaysia atwatershed scale ( spatial resolutions <10km) on the local climaticconditions

Model Components
Land Hydrologic Model

The land hydrology component of RegHCM-PM is Integrated
Regional Scale Hydrologic-Atmospheric Model (IRSHAM) thatcategorized as fully physically-based regional land surfacehydrology modelClimate Change Projection
GLOBAL*

Surface temperature(ºC)(Emission Scenario
SRES*** A1B)

Sea level rise (m)(Emission Scenario
SRES*** A1B)

MALAYSIA**2050

2100

2050

1.6

2.8

1.5

0.21-0.48-* IPCC WG1 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007** STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC REGIME AND
WATER RESOURCES OF P MALAYSIA, NAHRIM, 2006*** SRES = Special Report on Emission Scenarios

Annual Rainfall (mm)+10% (Kelantan, Terengganu &Pahang)-5% (Selangor & Johor)

Locations of rain gauges and weather station at which thetemperature data were used for validation

Example of the model simulation output
Table 1: Summary of Monthly Flows
Klang

Selangor

DungunTerengganu

Kelantan

PahangPerak

MudaJohor

Historical

31.2

107.9

398.4

1535.11697.4

523.7

307.4

82.7

Future

45.8

108.5

569.5

1950.72176.6

578.2

340.0

94.0

Diff.

+14.6

+0.6

+171.1+415.6+479.2

+54.5

+32.6

+11.3

(%)

+46.8

+0.6

+42.9

+27.1

+28.2

+10.4

+10.
6

+13.7

Historical

14.4

40.7

93.4

535.9

669.6

286.4

105.6

32.7

Future

13.3

37.5

98.3

601.7

718.1

299.7

104.0

31.8

Diff.

-1.1

-3.2

+4.9

+65.8

+48.5

+13.3

-1.6

-0.9

(%)

-7.6

-7.9

+5.2

+12.3

+7.2

+4.6

-1.5

-2.8

Historical

2.67.1

13.1

158.4

156.3

183.6

25.3

9.8

River

MaximumMonthly
Flows(cms)

MeanMonthly
Flows(cms)

N

Selected Sub-regions in Peninsular Malaysia
based on River-basin

LegendMaximumFlow
Minimum Flow

Locations of the selected
stream gauging stations andwatersheds

Validation of Simulated Streamflow
with Observed Streamflow

Figure 1 : Observed monthly mean flow
and simulated monthly mean flow at J Guillemard Kelantan

Figure 2: Simulated Monthly River Flow
Periodic Means and Standard Deviations

BACKExample of the study results : River Flow
• Table 1 is a summary of simulated monthly flows
during the historical and future periods at the
selected Peninsular Malaysia watershed.
• An increase in interannual and intraseasonalvariability with increased hydrologic extremes areexpected in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu andPerak.
• Increase in maximum monthly flows from 11% to 47%
for all over Peninsular Malaysia• Decrease in minimum monthly flows from 31% to 93%
for Johor and Selangor.

RegHCM-SS : A regional hydrologic/atmospherichydroclimate model of Sabah and Sarawak (East Malaysiaregion) is under development stage.
To study the impact of Climate Changeon the Hydrologic Regime and Water
Resources of Sabah and Sarawak

Domain nesting of RegHCM for Sabah &Sarawak, Malaysia and its surrounding
areas. An inner domain is nested within
the center of the outer domain.

Monthly green fraction [unit: %] for
RegHCM-SSM’s inner domain grids.

NAHRIM FUTURE HYDROCLIMATEDATABASE• How to access?
- log on to
http://www.futurehydroclimate.nahrim.gov.my/and register.
• 5 main modules/parameters:– Precipitation– Evapotranspiration– Soil Water Storage– Surface Temperature– Streamflow

3. Potential Impacts of Climate Change
on Malaysian Water Resources (Irrigation andWater Supply)
Indicator
Extreme droughts

Impacts
Disrupt supply services especially in urban
areas
More severe floods in flood prone
Floods in some areas not normally flooded
under the present climate

Higher rainfall intensity

More severe and frequent landslides anderosion, thus Increased sedimentation inreservoirs and rivers

Indicator

Impacts

Lower rainfalls

Water supply stress situation for irrigation anddomestic/industrial water supply

Projected rainfalls
event affect theirrigation system

MADA Granary (Northwest) area is expected
to have 57 months of water deficit and 183
months of water surplus in the projection
period of 2025-2034 & 2041-2050.
The monthly water surplus range:+6 MCM to 2500 MCM

KADA (Northeast) Granary area is projected
to have an extreme surplus which isindicating the possibility of flooded conditions
in some of the paddy areas up to 5400 MCM

4. Assessing Vulnerability
and Strategies of Adaptation• To develop good water harvesting techniques for water conservation forboth irrigation and water supply besides reducing Non-Revenue Water(NRW) and improving irrigation efficiency• To improved weather forecasting system as supporting tool for
improving water resources management• To review floods management and structural integrity• To impose “No Regret” actions:i. promoting awareness,ii. capacity building,iii. encouraging the organizations and the public to takeaffirmative action to evaluate and respond to climate changeExample of “No Regret” actions which could reduce orabsorb any negative impacts of climate change on waterresources•promoting the use of RegHCM-PM model by NAHRIM, updating ofwater resources status and requirement for Malaysia that will
incorporate considerations for climate change by Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment (NRE) through the Department ofIrrigation and Drainage (DID) and promoting the Integrated River
Basin Management (IRBM) and Integrated Flood Management (IFM)
led by NRE and DID

CONCLUSION•

Malaysian water infrastructure is very likely can not sustain
thunderstorms which is more extreme due to the climate change•Flooding will be predicted more serious and devastating to ourassets and life.

•Frequent drought problems will further decrease the river flow.

•The expected changes in the hydrologic regime of Malaysia due tothe impact of climate changes may require significant planning ofthe Malaysia’s water resources to accommodate aforesaid changes
into the future water balances over the Malaysia

THANK YOUCám ơn quý vị râtnhiềuTERIMAKASIH