Vietnam Proposal

Project title: Utilizing satellite data, numerical rainfall forecast,combining with ground observations in flood forecasting for
the Thai Binh River system

National Hydro-Met. Service of Vietnam

National Centre for Hydro-Met. Forecasting

Tokyo, 26 November 2013
Dr. Dang Ngoc Tinh

Introduction
An effective flood emergency management needs to be informed by a robust
Flood Forecasting Systems (FFS). Before 1990’s years, these systems wereusually in the form of hard copy flood maps, graphs, tables and other hard copy
documents. With recent advances in computer and communicationtechnologies, these systems have been re-forming into more sophisticatedforms; providing much needed real time flood information in more detail, insignificantly less time-frame and with much higher quantity and quality. Thesesystems are similar in some of the basic principles, such as computerization of
the flood prediction operations with more available data, information and usageof GIS as a platform for interaction with the users.
Development of a flood forecasting and warning system using satellite data ishighly expected, especially for developing countries where the collection of realtime data on rainfall and water level in river basins faces on technical andfinancial difficulties.
Hydrological models are reliable on simulating discharge, but for water level
prediction and flood wave routing, a hydrodynamic model is superior. That why
usually apply in combination of hydrologic and hydrodynamic models in flood
forecasting for whole river system from upstream to dowstream.

Problem encounter
Despite exists several national and international projects which areconducted on flood forecasting in Vietnam , Thai Binh river system is lessinvested and flood forecasting accuracy and lead time for this river system havestill a lot of limitations.
The Thai Binh River system is second big river system after the Red river
system in the Northern Vietnam with basin area 17580km2 (to Pha Lai station)and length of main stream 1650km. Upper part of the basin is located in moutainous
area, but lower part is in low land and is affected by strong tide from the East sea.

Available near real time data for flood forecasting purpose from upstream toPha Lai come only from 35 rain gauges, 14 water level gauges and 2discharge gauges. These stations are sparsely and unevenly distributed. Inupper reaches of the basin, where rainfall formulates runoff, there is no rain
gauge, no flow measurement.
For the Thai Binh river system now exists only 12-24 hour flood forecast withlow accuracy because of data lack and without of advanced forecasting
technique.

The Thai Binh River
System Location+ Area: 17580km2 ,+ Length: 1650km+ 35 rain gauges,+14 water level gauges+ 2 discharge gauges+ only 12-24 hour floodforecast

The Hydro-Meteorological Staion Networkon Thai Binh River System BasinProblem Solution
It is planes to utilize satellite data like GSMaP_NRT from JAXA (Japan), numericalrainfall forecasts like ECMWF, GSM; combining with hydro-meteorological groundobservation data in flood forecasting for the Thai Binh River system.
For this purpose, the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) is used for calculating
runoff on upstream sub-basins without hydro-meteorological data or with insufficienthydrological and geophysical information. This runoff is considered as inputs or lateral
inflows into downstream mainstream. For downstream where there are enough grounddata, the hydrodynamic model Mike 11 (DHI) used for flood forecasting. The system willincrease lead time to 2-day flood forecast with improved and acceptable accuracy for theThai Binh river system.
GSMap data: Data transmission Interval: 4 hour; Mesh size: 0.10~11km, A~120 km2;
NRT_daily: 0.250 ~ 275km, A~75,625km2; Observation extent: Altitude 60 degree North~Longtitude 60 degree South.
Numerical forecast data GSM (Global Spectral Model) provided by JMA: Interval ofprovided data: 6 hours with delay 4 hour; Mesh size: 1.250 ~125km; area: global;
Physical Ground: corrected sea-level air pressure, east-west wind (10 m), south-northwind (10 m), parameters: temperature (1.5 m), relative moisture (1.5 m), accumulate
precipitation, and air pressure; Atmosphere layer: 16 layers ... altitude, east-west wind,south-north wind, temperature. 7 layers ... relative moisture, upward flow, among which,the accumulate precipitation is used.

DATA FLOW CHART

1.Overall Goal
Effective utilizing available satellite data in flood forecasting
2.Project Purpose
Utilizing all available satellite data combining with numericalrainfall forecasts and ground observations in operational floodforecasting for Vietnam rivers (in case of the Thai Binh river
system3.Outputs- Two-day flood forecast for main rivers of the Thai Binh river
system- Technical transfer to local forecasters at regional and provincial
levels to operate the flood forecasting system.

4. Activities(1) Data collection
1) Available satellite data from JAXA such as DEM, Land use or Land
cover from GlobalMap, GSMaP_NRT for last 6 years (2008-2013) from FTP
server2) DEM, Land use or Land cover, river network, GIS products.. fromVietnamese Mapping organization
3) Hydro-meteorological ground data: rainfall, water level, discharge for theThai Binh river system from 2008-2013
4) Geographical data: cross sections, hydraulic constructions, lakes,reservoirs… in the basin5) Numerical Rainfall forecast from GSM, ECMWF
6) Reporting(2) Data processing and archiving
1) Processing DEM, Land use, Land cover to build correct basin boundary,river network
2) Processing and archiving hydro-meteorological and geographical data inrequired format for hydrological and hydraulic models
3) Reporting(3) Calibration, verification of hydrological model (IFAS)
1) Set up IFAS model for the Thai Binh river basin2) Calibration of IFAS model parameters
3) Verification of IFAS model4) Reporting(4) Calibration, verification of hydraulic model (Mike DHI)
1)Set up Mike model for the Thai Binh basin2) Calibration of Mike model parameters
3) Verification of Mike model4) Reporting(5) Calibration, verification of forecasting system by combininghydrological model (IFAS) and hydraulic model (Mike DHI)
1) Set up forecasting system of hydrological-hydraulic models
2) Calibration of forecasting system
3) Verification of forecasting system
4) Reporting(6) Final reporting.

5. Potential Collaborators- National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS), Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment (MONRE), Executing Agency- The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF),
Implementing Agency- International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under theauspices of UNESCO (UNESCO-ICHARM), Technical support, advanced
training of IFAS
- The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Satellite data provider,Financial support from JAXA where possible (travel, per diem... for experts,
training from ICHARM, workshop attending etc...)- Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre for the North-East Vietnam (RHM
CNE), Ground Data provider and End-User- Standing Office (SO) of Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control(CCFSC), End-User