GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative
Reduction of Hydrometeorological disasters
in Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin
considering climate change and water cycle changes

PDM Uzbekistan

Background of the project
Uzbekistan is prone to climate-related disasters such as floods, mudflows, drought.

The whole area of Chirchik-Akhangaran river basin occupies the north-eastern part ofUzbekistan, has a great diversity of landforms and features in the distribution of temperature,
precipitation and humidity.

Map of Chirchik- Akhangaran river basin

In Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin and in neighboring countries there are many potentially
dangerous and developing objects - glacial lakes and outbreaking lakes, and monitoring are
difficult because of inaccessibility. Objects themselves are often small in size but have anenormous potential threat in the event of their destruction.

In accordance with research concluded that, in relation to climate change
in Chirchik- Akhangaran river basin is: Reduction of snow cover, increasing seasonal snow line; Degradation of glaciers; Reduction of available water resources;
 Strengthening of natural variability and the overall trend increase in extreme
water availability in years;
 Revealed the lack of information and methodological support not only for thecountry but also the neighboring countries, to better ensure the data.
Long-term changes of the snow reserves estimated forthe end March
S no w re se rve s, M a rch

35 00

S no w re se rve s ra te s

30 00
25 00
20 00
15 00
10 00
5 00

2012

2 00 820 0 420 00

19 96

1 9 92

1 9 881984

1 9 80

19 76

19 72

19 68

19 64

0
1 9 50

S now r es e rv es , m ln.m340 00

Proceeding from the above, you need to conduct research in the following areas: Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources; Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin from theeffects of dangerous Hydrometeorological phenomena;
 Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous Hydrometeorologicalphenomena;
 Development of adaptive strategies and measures.

Overall Goal
Reduction of Hydrometeorological disasters in Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin
considering climate change and water cycle changes

Project Purpose
Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous Hydrometeorologicalphenomena in Chirchik - Akhangaran river basinOutputs
1. Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources:a)b)c)

Assessment of the dynamics of glaciers in the upper Chirchik Akhangaran river basin.
Assessment of the dynamics of high mountain outbursting lakes,
due to the fact that the retreat of the glaciers - a phenomenon
that can cause a breakout of glacial lakes that threaten serious
flooding in the lower reaches of the rivers.
Creating an archive of high resolution satellite data for systemmonitoring high mountain outbursting lakes. Satellite imageshave many advantages, they can be used to monitor the potential
danger of objects located in the territory of neighboring
countries, which is very important for the study basin.

Outputs
2. Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchik - Akhangaran river basinfrom the effects of dangerous Hydrometeorological phenomena:a)

b)

c)
d)

Analysis of the current variability of extremehydrometeorological phenomena (probability of occurrence,
duration of hazardous period by the territory) and their aftereffects for vulnerability assessment.
Selection of methods of an estimation of vulnerability ofwater resources of a Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin in
conditions of climatic change.
Future risk assessment in line with the Climate Scenarios andapplication of the advanced methods and tools.
Generation of vulnerability and hazard zonation maps andprovide information for planning disaster mitigation measuresOutputs
3. Improved forecasting and early warning of dangeroushydrometeorological phenomena:a) The development of hydrological models.
b) Creation of an Archive of satellite remote sensing data for thecharacteristics of the hydrological modeling.
c) Creation and maintenance of an information database.
4. Development of adaptive strategies and measures:a) Since it is not possible to completely avoid natural hazards likefloods, mudslides, etc., you need to build capacity foradaptation related to prevention (keeping), the softening effect(protection) and a reduction of damage (insurance).

Activities and Key Leaders
NIGMI, Uzhydromet.
1.Improved monitoring of snow and ice resources

WMO/HyCOS– ARAL HyCOS, ESA, NOAA, JAXA, DIAS
2.Assessment of Vulnerability Chirchik - Akhangaran river basin from the effects ofdangerous Hydrometeorological phenomena

WMO/HyCOS –ARAL HyCOS, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC
3.Improved forecasting and early warning of dangerous Hydrometeorologicalphenomena

DIAS,JACA, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC, UTokyo, ESA, NOAA, JAXA
4.Development of adaptive strategies and measures
HyCOS, JACA, GEF/UNCCD/UNFCC, UTokyo

WMO/ARAL

Thank you for your attention !