Jan. 26, 2021

Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami SeminarCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction
1, Space factor for CBDRR
2, Time factor for CBDRR
3, Measure the evacuation speed of vulnerable people
4, Apply to other places and predictions for zoning

Nobuhito OHTSU, Ph.D.
-Senior Researcher
National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster (NRIFD),
Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA),
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC),
Government of Japann.ohtsu@soumu.go.jp-Visiting Associate Professor, Kobe University1

Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami SeminarAgendaCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

1, Space factor for CBDRR
2, Time factor for CBDRR
3, Measure the evacuation speed of vulnerable people-on experiment courses-on actual evacuation routes in a community

4, Apply to other places and predictions for zoning

2

Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami SeminarCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

The purpose of this presentation-To understand that safer space design reduces thenecessity of evacuation-To understand one of the methods to measure andpredict evacuation speed-To adjust today’s topics to your target areas orfields
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Population: 15,648

Kushimoto Town,
Wakayama Prefecture
Town office
3m above sea level

Pacific Ocean

Fire station (Before2012)
3m above sea level4M9.1, 3minutes, 17m
M8.7 , 5minutes, 10m

Assumed Tsunami inundation area

Pacific Ocean
Town office
3m above sea level
Fire station (Before2012)
3m above sea level56How to save our lives fromtsunami?

7

Space design of evacuation
for pedestrians (0.5-1.0m/sec)
Evacuation site

Area from which
evacuation requiredEvacuation route

Evacuation route

Possible evacuation
distance

Assumed tsunami
inundation area

Targetevacuation
point

Tsunami evacuation building
Difficult evacuation areas

Higher ground

Shoreline
Ocean
Fig. from MIC

8Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami Seminar

AgendaCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

1, Space factor for CBDRR
2, Time factor for CBDRR
3, Measure the evacuation speed of vulnerable people-on experiment courses-on actual evacuation routes in a community

4, Apply to other places and predictions for zoning

9DisasterCycle of Disaster

災害
発生

Prevention

④予防

③減災
Mitigation

Response①対応②復旧・復興Recovery/ Reconstruction

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Evacuation action and Risk Affected Time (Tsunami)
避難行動と危険波及時間との時間的関係(津波)

避難完了

TsunamiHitting

避難開始

Finishing
Evacuation

Starting
to evacuate

Realizing

Earthquake

津波
覚知
空間認知を伴う覚
知が重要

津波
到
達

＊津波により危険が波及すると覚知した時を示す。(警報の発令を視聴した時ではない。)
出典：室﨑益輝，現代建築学 建築防災・安全，1993年および大津暢人，北後明彦，「市街地の津波避難訓練における住民による災害時要援護者の搬送速度と輸送－神戸市真陽地区におけるシルバーカー、介助車、車いすおよびリヤカーを用いた搬送避難－」，日本建築学会計画系論文集，Vol.82 No.734，2017.4をもとに筆者作成11

Safety evaluation
Total Evacuation Time < Risk Affected Time
The safety of evacuation is assessed byEvacuation Time Remaining

12

History of DisasterThe oldest recorded Nankai troughearthquake is in 684 A.D.

出典：内閣府13

Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami Seminar

AgendaCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

1, Space factor for CBDRR
2, Time factor for CBDRR
3, Measure the evacuation speed of vulnerable people-on experiment courses-on actual evacuation routes in a community

4, Apply to other places and predictions for zoning

14Background2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
Deceased or missing people
Vulnerable people
16.1%+) Supporters
18.9%
Concerned to vulnerable people 35.0%(Isozaki 2013)

15Three types of equipment used in the experiment

A: Rollator

B: Transport chair

C: Wheelchair

Dimension(cm)SymbolEquipments

Weight(kg)When stored

In usePrincipal use

HeightWidthDepth

HeightWidth Depth

A

Rollator

5.7

76

50.5

46

81.5

50.5

60

Non- transport

B

Transport chair

9.3

8555

31905562

Transport

CWheelchair

17.98830

1048862104

Transport
16Assistant equipment for rollator
A person’s feet reachthe ground

A person’s feetget caught
in the ground

A person’s feet are liftedby installing theassistant equipment

A rest position
in a normal rollator

A moving position
in a normal rollator

Installing the assistantequipment in a rollator

補助具なし

補助具装着時足が持ち上げられる
Patent 特許第5802342号

シルバーカー用補助具
シルバーカーには車椅子や介助車に装備されているフットレストがないため、要援護者の足が接地した状態で搬送しようとすると、足が路面と機材下部の間に巻き込まれ前進できない。そこで、本実験では新たに開発した「シルバーカー用補助具」注１）を装着することにより要援護者の足を浮かせた状態に保持し、シルバーカーに緊
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急避難的に介助走行の用途を付加した。

Steep急Gentle

Flat

Rollators
TransportChairs
Wheelchairs
18

Average velocity of transporting vulnerable people

Flat(0%)Gentle slope(6.77%)

Steep slope(12.99%)Wheelchair

1.87m/s

1.28m/s

0.92m/sTransport chair

1.58m/s

1.14m/s

0.85m/s

Rollator

1.18m/s

0.91m/s

190.77m/s

Area Outline

Population, household and aging rate
Population
Number of households
Average number of persons in a household (people)
Aging rate (%)

Shinyo District
5,896 (a)3,036 (b)1.94 (a/b)
30.7Whole country

2.51
23.0 (FY2010)“Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (FY2013)” by the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare
Number of households and age (5-year step) per municipality in Kobe City (Census)
Results of the FY 2010 census (as of October 1, 2010)20

BOKOMI=Community Disaster
Prevention Organization
Led by citizen,
supported by municipality.
21

Equipment to carry vulnerable people

Rollator

Transport chair

Wheelchair

Cart

Drill date and assumptions
Date

17 January 201517 January 2016

Supposition

Great Nankai Trough Earthquake has occurred.

Magnitude

9

Seismic intensity

6 (Nagata ward, Kobe city)

Warning

Great Tsunami Warning(along Setonaikai sea in Hyogo prefecture)22

Drillin 2015

1人in 2016

A

1.5 人

BB

2人

AA

B

A リヤカーを牽引

A リヤカーを牽引

A リヤカーを牽引
23

B 後方を追従

B 側方を補助B リヤカーを牽引Result (1)Evacuation
diagramcarrying
vulnerable
peopleEveryvulnerable
person in thisdrill could
evacuate
within theproject 90
minutes ortsunami hitting
time.

24

Result (2)Rollator
Transport chair
Wheelchair
Cart

Averagespeed
1.03m/s
1.42m/s
1.50m/s
1.27m/sTransportation
ability
3.7person・km/h
5.1person・km/h
5.4person・km/h
4.6person・km/h

Transportationquantity
3.7person・km/h
5.1person・km/h
5.4person・km/h
2.3person・km/h

25

Number of supporters for one vulnerable person
rollator/wheelchair/transport chair: 1 supporter
cart: 1 supporter/1.5 supporters/2 supporters（based on 3 pulling methods）

26

Result (2)Transportation ability

Transportation quantity

Nv
T ai = max V i

Nv onboard =ViT qiNs

Ns

Tai Evacuation transportation ability
Tqi Evacuation transportation quantity
Ns
Number of evacuation supporter(s)Nvmax Maximum number of vulnerable person(s)Nvonboard Number of vulnerable person(s) on board during evacuation
Vi
Velocity of instrument

Transportation ability

Transportation quantity

Rollator

3.7person・km/h

3.7person・km/h

Transport chair

5.1person・km/h

5.1person・km/h

Wheelchair

5.4person・km/h

5.4person・km/h

Cart

4.6person・km/h

2.3person・km/h 27

drill in 2015plan

1 人 21/Feb./2016

AB

1.5 人B21

15 participants

29 p

2人A

29 participantsA リヤカーを牽引
A リヤカーを牽引

Evaluation meeting

B 後方を追従

Evaluation
meeting in 2015
03/Mar./2015

B 後方を補助A

B

Adrill
リヤカーを牽引in 2016

Purchase andinstallation of carts

B リヤカーを牽引28

Discussion
1, Natural human response(Psychological effects)
2, Uncertainties of supporters
3, Means of transportation
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Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami Seminar

AgendaCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

1, Space factor for CBDRR
2, Time factor for CBDRR
3, Measure the evacuation speed of vulnerable people-on experiment courses-on actual evacuation routes in a community

4, Apply to other places and predictions for zoning

30

Estimated transportevacuation time
𝑇𝑠 = σ𝑛𝑖=1𝐷𝑖𝐻+(−0.0278𝐼𝑖+1.0133 0.18

𝑇𝑡 = σ𝑛𝑖=1𝐷𝑖
𝐻+(−0.0501𝐼𝑖+1.4068 0.18

𝑇𝑤 = σ𝑛𝑖=1𝐷𝑖
𝐻+(−0.0587𝐼𝑖+1.4732 0.18

T Estimated transport evacuation times Rollatort Transport chairw Wheelchair
D Section distanceIi Incline of section I
H Height of stairs

31Case1
Evacuation start time 0 min.
Evacuation action time 6 min.

This figure shows
estimated area where itis difficult for vulnerable
people to evacuate when
the tsunami comes.
The range of the areachanges depending onevacuation start timeand evacuation actiontime.

32

Case2
Evacuation start time 5 min.
Evacuation action time 1 min.

33

Plan to relocate toApproximately 50m above
sea level in 2021

Relocation to 24m above
sea level in 2012

Town office
3m above sea level

WaterFire station
3m above sea level34

References-Nobuhito Ohtsu, Akihiko Hokugo
Velocity and transportation ability of vulnerable people during a community
tsunami evacuation drill: Outdoor evacuation using a rollator, transport chair,wheelchair, and cart in Shinyo Bokomi, Kobe, Japan, JAPANARCHITECTURAL REVIEW
Vol.2 Issue4 p576 ～ 587, 2019, DOI ：https://doi.org/10.1002/2475-8876.12118-Nobuhito Ohtsu, Akihiko Hokugo, Abel Táiti Konno Pinheiro, Jihyang Lee
Feasibility of evacuating vulnerable people during a tsunami: Comparing
assistant velocities with a wheelchair, transport chair, and rollator on three different
inclines outdoors, JAPAN ARCHITECTURAL REVIEW

Vol.3 Issue2 p218～230, 2020, DOI：https://doi.org/10.1002/2475-8876.12140、35

Jan. 26, 2021
Asian Disaster Reduction Center Online Tsunami SeminarCommunity Space Designfor Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction

Thank you very muchfor your attention!!
Nobuhito OHTSU, Ph.D.
-Senior Researcher
National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster (NRIFD),
Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA),
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC),
Government of Japann.ohtsu@soumu.go.jp-Visiting Associate Professor, Kobe University

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