REPUBLIC OFCONGO
Table 1

Key conditions andchallenges
2023

Population, million

6.1

GDP, current US$ billion

15.3

GDP per capita, current US$2506.0

International poverty rate ($2.15)

a35.4
a59.1

a83.5

Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65)
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85)
Gini index

a48.9

School enrollment, primary (% gross)

b87.7

b63.5

Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e)

34.2Life expectancy at birth, years

Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data.
a/ Most recent value (2011), 2017 PPPs.
b/ WDI for School enrollment (2018); Life expectancy(2021).

Theeconomyisgraduallyrecovering,but
growthremainedmodestatanestimated1.9
percentin2023,drivenbynon-oilactivities.Theongoingfuelsubsidiesreformis
helpingtomaintainfiscalsurplusesbuthas
alsocontributedtoatemporaryincreasein
inflation,whichisprojectedtoreturntothe
3.0percenttargetby2025.Growthprospects,albeitimproved,remainvulnerabletounsteadyoilproduction,volatileoil
prices,delayedstructuralreformimplementation,andadverseweatherconditions.

Between 2015 and 2023 the Republic ofCongo’s (ROC) real GDP annual growth
averaged -1.9 percent, while its GDP percapita contracted by a cumulative 32.3 percent. The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices
plunged the economy into a prolonged recession as a result of a massive cut in public spending and the accumulation of domestic arrears to private sector firms,
which impacted private investment. The
COVID-19 crisis further exacerbated theeconomic recession. GDP per capita has
now regressed to levels of the early 1970s,
just a decade after gaining independence.
The decline in per capita income levels
since 2015 have resulted in extreme poverty incidence (less than US$2.15 PPP perday) increasing from 33.5 percent in 2015
to 46.6 percent in 2022.
The country’s high levels of non-concessional borrowing in a context of relianceon volatile oil revenue and weak governance, led its debt to be classified as “indistress” and unsustainable in 2017, withits debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from 42.3
percent in 2014 to 103.5 percent in 2020.
Higher oil prices, improved debt management, and debt restructuring agreements helped restore debt sustainability
in the second half of 2021, but Congo remains in debt distress due to the ongoing restructuring and audit of domestic
arrears as well as the recurrent accumulation of temporary external arrears.

FIGURE 1 Republic of Congo / Real GDP growth

The enduring reliance on oil revenues has
left the economy vulnerable to oil pricevolatility and weakened long-term growthprospects. Attaining sustainable development in Congo urgently requires efforts todiversify national assets, focusing onstronger institutions, development of human and physical capital, and a more balanced exploitation of natural capital.

Recent developments
Driven by the non-oil sector, economic activity in Congo is estimated to have increased by 1.9 percent in 2023, compared
to an estimated 1.5 percent in 2022. Non-oil
growth, estimated at 2.8 percent in 2023,
was broad-based, spurred by agriculture,
manufacturing (including beverages, sugar, and cement), and services (including
restaurants and hotels, transport, and postand electronic communications). The oil
sector, on the other hand, underperformed
with production declining for the fourthconsecutive year in 2023 by 0.5 percent,due to technical challenges and maturing
oil fields. Despite a drop in oil revenues
due to lower oil prices and oil production,
the budget posted a surplus in 2023. Fiscal
discipline and strong reforms such as the30 percent increase in gasoline retail prices
since January 2023 and a new requirement
on dividends payment from state-owned
enterprises helped sustain the budget surplus estimated at 3.6 percent in 2023. Lower export receipts and increased imports
reduced the current account surplus to an
estimated 2.1 percent of GDP in 2023.

FIGURE 2 Republic of Congo / Actual and projected
poverty rates and real GDP per capita

Percent change
6Poverty rate (%)

490280Real GDP per capita (constant LCU)

100

1200000
1000000

700

80000060-250-4

60000040-630-820-1010

400000200000

0-12
2019

2020

2021e 2022e 2023e

Oil GDP

Non-Oil GDP

2024f

2025f

02011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 20252026f

Real GDP

Source: World Bank.
Note: Oil GDP growth rate in 2026 is projected at -0.1.

International poverty rate

Lower middle-income pov. rate

Upper middle-income pov. rate

Real GDP pc

Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.

MPO1

Apr 24

The banking sector remains solvent, butvulnerability to non-performing loans(NPLs) remains high. Bank deposits andcredit to the private sector were up asof end-August 2023 (y-o-y), and while
the NPL to gross loan ratio has improved to 17 percent at end-August2023(compared to 19 percent a year ago), it
remains elevated. The Bank of Central
African States (BEAC) maintained its
tight monetary policy stance during2023 to contain inflationary pressuresand support the external viability of theexchange rate arrangement. The BEAC
policy rate was maintained at five percent following a cumulative increase by
175 basis points between November
2021 and March 2023.
Real GDP per capita growth remained
negative in 2023 and the poverty incidence consequently increased slightly toan estimated 46.8 percent. The fuel priceadjustment and increased domestic demand pushed up inflation to 4.3 percent in 2023. Food inflation decelerated in
2023 but remains elevated at 4.3 percent,which is likely to continue to affect thepoorer segments of the population moreas they typically spend a higher share of
their household budget on food.

Outlook
The Congolese economy is expected tocontinue its gradual recovery. GDP is expected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2024 andto average 3.4 percent in 2025-26. Oil sector growth (expected to average 2.7 percent in 2024-26) will be driven primarily by increased investments by oil companies, including in asset maintenance,and by new oil fields. Non-oil sector
growth (expected to average 3.9 percent
in 2024-26) will be spurred by growthin agriculture, non-oil industry and services, supported by the continued clearance of government arrears, gradual increase in social spending and public investment, and the implementation of reforms in governance and the businessenvironment. Growth will be further supported by the development of the gas sector, with commercial production and exportation of liquefied natural gas expected
to start in 2024. Inflation is expected to ease
to 3.8 percent in 2024 and to return to
BEAC’s 3.0 percent target by 2025.
The poverty rate is expected to marginallydecrease to 46.4 percent in 2024 and to an

TABLE 2 Republic of Congo / Macro poverty outlook indicators

average of 45.5 percent in 2025-26, consistent with projected growth in GDP percapita. The fiscal balance is expected to remain positive, fueled by high oil prices, increased oil production, the commercialization of natural gas, the reduction in direct
oil subsidies to energy SOEs, and fiscal discipline. Although debt vulnerabilities remain elevated (with a high level of nonconcessional debt stock and domestic arrears), the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected
to decline to 81 percent by 2026 thanks toimproved debt management and fiscal discipline. The current account surplus isprojected to decline, and to turn into a
deficit by 2026, due to lower oil export
receipts and increased imports to support
investment, including for growing nonoil economic activities.
The economic recovery remains fragile asrisks are tilted to the downside. Risks include volatile global oil prices and unsteady oil production, persistent highfood inflation or refined oil shortages inCongo as part of spillover from conflicts
elsewhere, weaker-than-expected global
demand, further tightening of global orregional financial conditions, adverse
weather conditions and delayed structuralreforms implementation.

(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross fixed capital investment
Exports, goods and services
Imports, goods and services

2021e
1.0
11.5
2.1
14.0
-1.0
25.0

2022e
1.5
5.0
-5.0
10.0
-0.7
5.9

2023e
1.9
4.9
0.6
8.6
1.0
8.9

2024f
3.5
4.9
1.8
8.6
4.2
8.5

2025f
3.7
5.0
1.6
5.6
4.5
7.0

2026f
3.2
5.1
1.6
5.4
1.9
5.0

Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices
Agriculture

1.0
1.91.5
3.0

1.9
2.8

3.5
3.2

3.7
3.4

3.2
3.7

-3.3
2.0

-0.6
3.1

0.7
2.9

4.5
3.1

4.8
3.2

3.2
3.4

Industry
ServicesInflation (consumer price index)

2.0

3.0

4.3

3.8

3.0

3.0

Current account balance (% of GDP)Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP)

8.9
0.3

18.7
0.5

2.1
4.1

1.5
4.5

0.4
4.7

-0.7
4.8

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Revenues (% of GDP)
Debt (% of GDP)
Primary balance (% of GDP)

1.2
21.1
92.1
3.1

7.9
28.686.6
10.2

3.6
24.3
96.0
6.4

3.9
25.5
91.3
6.6

3.2
25.2
85.9
5.8

3.1
24.8
81.0
5.7

46.4
70.6
90.6

46.6
70.9
90.7

46.8
71.0
90.8

46.4
70.7
90.6

45.6
70.2
90.4

45.4
70.1
90.3

3.2
14.0

3.2
14.7

3.3
14.8

3.4
15.1

3.4
15.4

3.3
15.2

a,b

International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e)
Energy related GHG emissions (% of total)

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.
Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast.
a/ Calculations based on 2011-ECOM. Actual data: 2011. Nowcast: 2012-2023. Forecasts are from 2024 to 2026.
b/ Projection using neutral distribution (2011) with pass-through = 0.87 (Med (0.87)) based on GDP per capita in constant LCU.

MPO2Apr 24