DEMOCRATIC
REP. OF CONGO

Key conditions andchallenges

Table 1

2023

Population, million

102.3

GDP, current US$ billion

64.4

GDP per capita, current US$629.5

International poverty rate ($2.15)

a78.9
a92.1

a97.7

Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65)
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85)
Gini index

a44.7

School enrollment, primary (% gross)b122.4b59.2

Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e)

691.7

Life expectancy at birth, years

Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data.
a/ Most recent value (2020), 2017 PPPs.
b/ Most recent WDI value (2021).

Following a strong recovery at 8.9 percent in 2022, the DRC’s economy is estimated to have slowed down in 2023 but
remained resilient. The terms-of-trade deterioration and higher imports would
maintain high current account and fiscal
deficits and put pressure on the domestic
currency with strong pass-through to inflation. Prospects for growth and poverty
reduction are favorable, but subject todownside risks related to commodity priceshocks and geopolitical conflicts.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC), home to the second largest rainforest in the world and vast metal deposits, has yet to leverage its natural
wealth to spur economic development.
DRC’s exports are highly concentrated
with copper and cobalt accounting for
80 percent of the total (40 percent of
which headed to China). With its agricultural potential untapped, DRC is anet food importer, increasing vulnerabilities to external shocks. Political instability, weak institutional capacity, poor
governance, and frequent bouts of violence have all contributed to undermining DRC’s foundations of a robust anddiversified economy. These issues have
not only deterred the creation of economic opportunities but also contributed
to escalating poverty levels, particularly
with a rapidly growing population. Persistent structural constraints result in anunderdeveloped private sector and a large
informal economy. Climate-related shocks,
including floods and droughts, and the associated infrastructure damage add tothese challenges.
Poverty remains widespread, with thebulk of the poor living in extreme poverty.
Significant geographical disparities inpoverty exist, with extreme poverty concentrated in the central and northwesternareas and the largest number of poor in
Eastern provinces. DRC remains second in

Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria in termsof the number of extreme poor despitesome improvements in the past decades.
The December 2023 elections have led toa second 5-year term for incumbent President Tshisekedi, but a majority is yet
to be negotiated in Parliament to forma government. Reaching political consensus and increasing the presence and credibility of the state, including through improved governance, are key to maintaining stability and peace, and advancing
structural reforms that will attract investments and create jobs. The imperative forthe state to enhance service delivery tocitizens, alongside preserving macroeconomic stability, underscores the importance of boosting domestic revenue mobilization to expand fiscal space.

Recent developments
The DRC economy expanded by 7.8
percent in 2023 (2022: 8.9 percent),
supported by a strong mining sector,
which grew by 15.4 percent, contributing around 70 percent to overall
growth in 2023. DRC copper andcobalt production increased by 18.7
and 21.2 percent, respectively, in 2023
(2022: 33.2 and 24.0 percent, respectively), reflecting ongoing expansionsof production at relevant mines. Nonmining GDP grew by 3.6 percent in2023, led by the construction and services sectors. Agriculture production
slowed to 2.2 percent in 2023 (from2.4 percent in 2022). On the demand

FIGURE 1 Democratic Republic of Congo / Real GDP
growth and contributions to real GDP growth

FIGURE 2 Democratic Republic of Congo / Actual andprojected poverty rates and real GDP per capita

Percent, percentage points
10

Poverty rate (%)

86Real GDP per capita (constant LCU)

100

1800009016000080

1400007012000060

4100000

50

2

400

30-2

80000
60000

20

40000

10

20000

0-4
2020

2021

Non-Mining

2022

2023e

Mining sector

2024f

2025f

2026f

SSA growthGDP

Sources: Democratic Republic of Congo statistical authorities and World Bank.

MPO

02012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Apr 242024

2026

International poverty rate

Lower middle-income pov. rate

Upper middle-income pov. rate

Real GDP pc

Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.

12022

side, growth was led by private investment
and exports, while inflationary pressurescaused private consumption to contract,potentially impacting poverty reduction.
Extreme poverty is estimated at 74.6 percent in 2023, a 1.4 percentage points decrease compared to 2022.
The current account deficit (CAD) further deteriorated to 6.3 percent of GDP
in 2023, from 4.9 percent in 2022, owing
to higher imports. Nevertheless, FDI
and external financing contributed tobuild up foreign reserves, reaching 8.9
weeks of imports in 2023 (2022: 7.7weeks). However, the exchange rate depreciated by 21.6 percent in 2023 andinflation accelerated to 19.9 percent on
average in 2023 (up from 9.2 percent in2022) despite the central bank’s intervention in FX market and its contractionary monetary policy during the second half of the year (raising the policy
rate from 11 to 25 percent).
The security and elections spendings
caused the fiscal deficit to widen to
1.7 percent of GDP in 2023 (from 0.3percent in 2022), amid softening domestic revenues, due to lower cobalt
prices and declining windfall taxes.
The fiscal deficit was partly fundedby treasury bills/bonds and external
concessional borrowing.

OutlookGDP growth is expected to moderate to6.0 percent in 2024 and to stabilize around
5.8 percent over 2025-26. The mining sector
will continue to drive growth. Moreover,non-mining sectors (mainly services andmanufacturing) will gradually support
growth in the medium term with a growthrate of 5.5 percent by 2026. On the demandside, government consumption and investment and, to a lesser extent, private consumption shall support growth in themedium term.
The fiscal deficit is projected at 2.0 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by securityrelated spending, before narrowing to 0.2
percent in 2026. Gross fixed capital investment is expected to drop in 2024 aslower domestic revenue and higher expenditures -attributed to outgoing and incoming administrations- leave a narrow
scope for relevant budget allocation. Despite rising imports of capital goods, thecurrent account deficit will narrow to 3.5
percent of GDP in 2024-26 thanks to improved terms of trade associated with favorable commodity prices. Furthermore,
FDI inflows will contribute to building up
reserves and maintaining exchange rate

TABLE 2 Democratic Republic of Congo / Macro poverty outlook indicators

stability while the inflation rate (end-ofperiod) is expected to decline towards its
7 percent medium-term target.
Extreme poverty is projected to further
decrease reaching 72.4 percent by 2025
given favorable economic prospects, despite the lasting negative effects of thepandemic, high population growth, andwar in Ukraine.
DRC’s economy remains subject to downside risks given its vulnerability to commodity price swings and growth performance of major trading partners whichmight be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts. The continued economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, through rising global commodity prices, could exert
stronger pressure on the fiscal deficit, inflation, and households’ consumption, thus,
exacerbating poverty and inequality.
In addition, with the agriculture sector
employing over 60 percent of the working force, the vulnerability to climatechange-related risks (floods, droughts) issubstantial. Finally, an escalating war in
the East and continued political volatility could undermine the ability to advance with ambitious structural reforms
efforts. To mitigate these risks, DRC’s
immediate challenge is to strengthen security and maintain political and macroeconomic stability.

(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross fixed capital investment
Exports, goods and services
Imports, goods and services

2021
6.2
1.6
11.8
7.7
11.7
5.4

2022
8.9
10.1
25.1
5.7
25.0
18.0

2023e
7.8
-1.6
-9.2
17.8
24.9
13.1

2024f
6.0
8.6
4.0
0.3
8.9
5.3

2025f
5.9
5.5
8.9
4.63.7
3.4

2026f
5.7
6.5
4.6
4.0
2.5
3.0

Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices
Agriculture
IndustryServices

6.2
2.4
7.8
5.8

8.9
2.4
16.1
2.7

7.8
2.2
13.0
2.9

6.0
2.5
7.2
5.6

5.9
2.5
6.4
6.4

5.6
2.5
5.3
7.3

Inflation (consumer price index)
Current account balance (% of GDP)

9.0
-0.4

9.3
-4.9

19.9
-6.3

17.2-4.3

14.5-3.3

10.5
-2.9

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Revenues (% of GDP)
Debt (% of GDP)
Primary balance (% of GDP)-1.7
12.1
24.0
-1.4

-0.3
16.9
24.0
0.0

-1.7
14.2
23.7
-1.4

-2.0
13.4
22.8
-1.7

-0.7
13.9
21.5
-0.4

-0.2
14.6
19.8
0.1

77.9
91.6
97.6

76.0
90.6
97.2

74.6
89.8
97.1

73.4
89.5
96.9

72.4
89.1
96.8

71.5
88.8
96.7

0.3
1.4

0.1
1.4

0.1
1.4

0.1
1.4

0.2
1.4

0.2
1.4

a,b

International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e)
Energy related GHG emissions (% of total)

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.
Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast.
a/ Calculations based on 2020-EGI-ODD. Actual data: 2020. Nowcast: 2021-2023. Forecasts are from 2024 to 2026.
b/ Projection using neutral distribution (2020) with pass-through = 0.87 (Med (0.87)) based on GDP per capita in constant LCU.

MPO2Apr 24