24th AIM International Workshop – Tsukuba, Japan, November 5-6, 2018

Synergistic effect of regional energy
transformation and air pollution control
Ren Song-yan1 Dai Han-cheng2 Wang Peng1 Zhao Dai-qing1 Toshihiko Masui3
1.Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, Guangzhou
2.Peking University, China, Beijing
3. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba-City, Japan

Introduction

Future Scenario• Guangdong contributes over 10.6% of China’s GDP and consumes 7% (301 million tons of coalequivalents) of China’s energy in 2015.
• China proposes three-year plan on defending the blue sky to significantly reduce PM2.5 emission.
At the same time，the Guangdong Provincial Government proposed to implement the total energy
consumption total value and energy intensity control, carbon emission intensity control.
• Control measures for energy, carbon emissions and air pollutants in Guangdong Province promoteenergy transformation in Guangdong Province.

••

All the datasets are converted to the base year of 2015.
The projections on population and GDP are based on the 12th five-year economic development
plan and research assumptions.
Table.1 Key assumptions
2015108.572812.55

Population (million)
GDP (million Yuan)

2015-2030
0.5%
7%Table.2 Scenario setting

Methods
1.GAINS Model:
GAINS model outputs Annual
PM2.5 concentration and control
cost in various scenarios
2.Health Impact Module:
Quantifies morbidity and mortality
as well as derived medical
expenditure, work time loss andpremature death.
3.ICAP/GD-CGE Model:
Worktime loss and premature death
are input as labor impact
disturbance variables to CGE
model which could simulate themacro impact and health impact.

No.

Scenario

1BaU

2BaU_RE3INDC_wo4

INDC_wi1

5

INDC_wi2

Description
The baseline scenario, according to the trend of 2015 development,does not consider health effects, as a reference scenario, it does not
actually exist.
In the renewable energy scenario, high-renewable energy and coal-fired
replacement will be completed by 2030. By 2020,Gas power generation
23GW,Wind power generation 18GW,hydro power generation
7.28GW,Nuclear power generation 16GW,Solar power generation andother 7.4GW. By 2030,Gas power generation 37GW,wind powergeneration 40GW,hydro power generation 11GW,Nuclear powergeneration 21GW,Solar power generation 13.6GW
The INDC scenario, Renewable power as same as BAU_RE, to 2030
Guangdong carbon emission intensity will reduced by 60-65%
compared to 2005, the future air pollutant control strategy is consistentwith 2015.
Completion of the national INDC target, air pollutant control strategy isgradually improved, PM2.5 is effectively controlled, 10% lower than in2015 by 2020, and 20% lower than 2015 by 2030.
Completing the national INDC target and formulating stricter air
pollutant control policies, PM2.5 is further controlled. In 2020, it will
20% lower than in 2015. By 2030, the most stringent air pollutant
control technology will be adopted.

Results
1.Power sector structural transformation
By 2020, coal-fired power generation in Guangdong Province will account for about 44%.
Secondly, nuclear power and gas power account for 21%, wind power accounts for 7%,hydropower accounts for 5%, solar energy and other accounts for 1%, renewable energy
accounts for 13%, and clean energy power accounts for 34%.By 2030, coal-fired power
generation in Guangdong Province will account for about 33% . Secondly, gas power
accounts for 31%, nuclear power accounts for 21%, wind power accounts for 9%,hydropower accounts for 3%, solar energy and other accounts for 2%, renewable energy
accounts for 14%, and clean energy power accounts for 35%.(Fig.1)
2.PM2.5 concentration
BaU_RE will have a PM2.5 concentration of approximately 36 ug/m3 by 2020 andapproximately 34 μg/m3 by 2030.The INDC_wo scenario will have a PM2.5 concentrationof approximately 33.3 μg/m3 in 2020 and a decrease of 31.4 μg/m3 in 2030.The
INDC_wi1 scenario is about 31.3 μg/m3 at 2020 PM2.5 and 27.8 μg/m3 at 2030.The
INDC_wi2 scenario will have a PM2.5 concentration of approximately 27.9 μg/m3 by 2020
and a decrease of 26.5 μg/m3 by 2030. (Fig.2)

Fig.1 Power generation structure

Fig.2 PM2.5 concentration

3.Macro Impact:
In 2030, the INDC_wo scenario has a GDP loss of 0.3% compared to the base scenario.
Residents income loss 0.5%.Compared with the INDC_wo scenario,INDC_wi1 scenario
GDP increased by 4.9 billion yuan, and residents' income increased by 4.1 billion yuan,
INDC-wi2 scenario GDP increased by 8 billion yuan, and resident income increased by 6.6billion yuan.(Fig.3)
4.Benifit/cost
By 2020, air pollution control costs are lower than GDP growth. By 2030, the INDC_wi2
scenario with a more stringent air pollution control strategy will result in GDP growth
greater than governance costs, The benefit/cost ratio will reach 0.76 and 1.18 by 2030,
respectively.(Fig.4)

Conclusion
References :[1].National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Energy
Administration of China. China energy statistics yearbook 2017. Beijing,
China Statistics Press; 2017 [in Chinese].
[2]. Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies.(GAINS)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASS)[3]. Fujimori (2012) AIM/CGE model manual. Internal report. AIM, NIES.

Fig.3

GDP Impact (%)

Fig.4

Benefit&Cost• 1. By 2030, Guangdong's renewable energy power generation accounts for 14%, and clean energy
power generation accounts for 35%.
• 2. Through the strict air pollutant control strategy, the PM2.5 concentration in the INDC_wi1 andINDC_wi2 scenarios will drop to 27.8ug/m3 and 26.5ug/m3 by 2030.
• 3. Considering the health impact, the INDC_wo scenario reduces GDP by 0.35% compared to thebaseline scenario, but by increasing the air pollutant control strategy, it can increase Guangdong‘s
GDP 8billion Yuan，and resident income increased by 6.6 billion Yuan.
• 4. By 2030, the GDP increase in the INDC_wi2 scenario with a more stringent air pollutant control
strategy will be higher than the control cost ，the benefit/cost will be 1.18.