Assessment of Comprehensive
Impacts and Effectiveness ofAdaptation Measures in JapanYasuaki Hijioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies
20th AIM International Workshop, 24-26 January, 2015 @ NIES

Environment Research & Technology
Development Fund “S-8”Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Targeted area : Whole and regional area in Japan andAsia-Pacific region
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture,
coastal zones, human healthResearch period: Period I (2010-2012) + Period II (2013-2014)


Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Number of sub-themes: 12

 Impact assessment in whole Japan: 9
 Impact assessment in Japanese regional area: 2
 Impact assessment in Asian developing countries: 12

Socio-Economic
Scenarios

Climate Scenarios【Theme 1】 Research on highly reliable quantitative
assessment of climate change impacts throughout
JapanBio.

AgriDisaster

HealthSimplified
assessment
methodRegional
assessment
methodWater

Climate Scenario downscaler
Economic assessment
Integrated assessment model
Feedback from local
government【Theme 2】

Research on impact
assessment andcomprehensive
adaptation policies
at the local
government level

Feedback from developingcountry【Theme 3】

Research on indexes ofvulnerability andadaptation effects
in the Asia-PacificRegion
Various impact andadaptation studies inthe Asia-Pacific region

Local government
consortium
Transmission of research results to domestic andinternational policymaking

ERTDF S-8 project report (2014)
 Published on 17 March, 2014
 Summary report of ERTDF S-

8 project from FY2010 to FY2013

 12 sub projects
 28 (34) research institutes

and universities

 93 (over 140) researchers

4Comprehensive impacts and effectivenessof adaptation measures in Japan Objectives

 Assessment of various distinct climate stabilization levels,impact level according to adaptation policy, and its adaptation
effect using a state-of-the art climate scenario utilized in IPCC
Fifth Assessment Report.

 Stabilization scenarios: RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5
 4 GCMs MIROC5 (Japan), MRI-CGCM3.0 (Japan), GFDL CM3 (USA),
HadGEM2-ES (UK)

 Target periods: Base period (1981-2000) and two futureperiods (mid-21st century: 2031-2050, end of the 21stcentury: 2081-2100)

5Quantitatively assessed indicators forclimate change impacts
 Indicators
 Blue color: Quantitatively assessed indicators of adaptation effect• Water resources (Quantity: River flow, Quality: Chlorophyll-a)• Coast/Disaster prevention (Food damage cost, Landslide probability,Landslide damage cost, Storm surge damage cost, Sand beach damage cost,
Tidal flat loss rate, Tidal flat damage cost)• Ecosystem (Pinus pumila potential habitat, Abies veitchii potential habitat,
Fagus crenata potential habitat, Fagus crenata damage cost, Quercus acuta
potential habitat)• Agriculture (Rice yield, Persistence rate of suitable cultivation area for Citrus
unshiu, Distribution rate of suitable cultivation area for Citrus tankan ）• Health (Heat stress excess mortality, Damage cost due to heat stroke death,
Number of heat stroke patients taken to hospital, Aedes albopictus
distribution6

2nd S-8 common scenario- Annual average temperature in and around JapanGFDL CM3+6 degree C
HadGEM2-ES+5 degree C
MIROC5+4 degree C
MRI-CGCM3+3 degree C7

2nd S-8 common scenario- Annual average precipitation in and around JapanGFDL CM3Low⇒High
HadGEM2-ES
Medium low⇒Low
MIROC5Medium high
MRI-CGCM3
Medium low8

Example of climate scenarios-Japanese average-

RCP scenarios
 R2.6：RCP2.6 (Blue), R4.5：RCP4.5 (Green), R8.5：RCP8.5 (Red) Climate scenarios
 MIROC5:◆，MRI-CGCM3.0:■，GFDL CM3:▲，HadGEM2-ES:● Meaning of values Difference: Future value (2031-2050 or 2081-2100) – Base year value (1981-2000)
 Ratio: Future value (2031-2050 or 2081-2100) Base year value (1981-2000)

9

Example of impact assessment with/without
adaptation under RCP scenariosWithout marker: no assessment
Gray color: with adaptationCaution points

 Various display methods: difference, ratio, change,etc.
 Meaning of different marker
10

Example of climate change impact assessment- Aedes albopictus distribution (RCP8.5, MIROC5)-

1981-2000

2081-2100
11

Example of climate change impact assessment- Rice yield considering quality (RCP8.5, MIROC5)-

Without adaptation(current rice breed andtransplanting date)

0.0 – 0.5 times
0.5 – 1.0 times
No change
1.0 – 2.0 times
2.0 times -With adaptation(optimum transplantingdate with a large yield
reducing quality loss due tohigh temperature) 12

Summary of prefecture-wise impact assessment
2031-2050

2081-2100

Research outcomesThis research systematically assesses impacts on Japan on the basisof RCP. It identified projections relevant to greenhouse gas
concentration pathway and climate scenarios, and subsequently
forecasted impacts on the country in the middle of 21st century(2031-2050) and the end of the century (2081-2100), respectively.
2. It is assessed that global warming exerts impacts on a variety offields in Japan throughout 21st century.
3. Climate change impacts depend on the degree of warming as
measured in temperature rise. Accordingly, if mitigation measures
advance on a worldwide scale, the adverse impacts on Japan can begreatly prevented. In such case, it is expected that adverse impacts
will occur in the absence of implementing adaptation.
1.

14

Next step“Strategic Research Project on theBest-mix of Mitigation and Adaptation for ClimateChange” (S-14, FY2015-2019)

•
•





Provide quantitative and basic information for effective andefficient implementation of mitigation and adaptation forclimate change in Japan and in the world.

Best-mix of M&A for developing resilient and sustainable society
under limited economic, human, and institutional resources available

5 Themes: 1: Multi-dimensional Evaluation with various indiceswith, 2: Ecosystem, 3: Sectoral Impact assessment at globe, 4:
Pilot Study in Mega City in Asia, 5: CGE

S-14-5: Research on development of an integrated
assessment model incorporating global-scale climatechange mitigation and adaptation
15Pop.

Food preference, demand,and agri. tech.

Renewable energy
potential, potential
FF outputGDP

Climate policy（Emis. restriction,C. cost, Inter. Institution,governance, financial mechanism

System foreliminating airpollution

Theme 2Ecosystem loss

Ecosystemmodel• Cooling demandService modelof cooling andheating• Water resource• Hydro power
Water• Cooling water forresource
thermal power• Biomass productivity model
decreasing• Change of food demand
and trade• Industrial water
E production,
consumption,
CGE main SE
and trade
scenario
CGE mainoutputCC impacts

Agri. Production,
consumption
trade, land use

Econometricmodel

AIM/CGE

Flooding area andloss, and protection

Flooding
model

Land
productivity

Agri.
model

Storm surge lossCoastaland procection

Heat-stress, laborproductivity, infectious
diseaseCost of energy,agri., carbon

Multi gasemission

Mitigation costfor CCDamage andadaptation cost

model

Healthmodel

Theme 3

Conclusion
AIM Impact Team has been contributing todevelopment of Japanese National Adaptation Plan
through attending subcommittee “climate change
impact assessment” and promoting the S-8 project







National Adaptation plan will be approved by the Japanese cabinet(summer, 2015)

Though new ERTDF S-14 project, CGE and global
impact assessment model will be integrated not only
within AIM team but also under collaboration withJapanese IAV researchers
17Thank you for your kind attention!

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