The 19th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
13-15, December 2013

Application of Material Stock andFlow Model_demand/country to Japan

Reina Kawase
Kyoto University

1Research topics in FY 2013
Trade Module

MonetaryPhysical
Model
Constrainofresource

Relative
price

35regions

EXP/IMP

Material
density

ＣＯ2

Virginresource

World market

Production
advantages

Goods
Production

Goods
demandGoods
Production

PolicyPreference

Recycleresource
Goods
production
Promoteof
recycleProduction
factor

Goods
stock

Production
factorDemandModel

Input-Output
ModuleWaste

Material stock

Waste

Macro Economic Model

ServicePop

OutputＧＤＰ・・・2Progress in FY 2013 (1)Trade Module

MonetaryPhysical
Model
Constrain
ofresource

Relative
price

EXP/IMP

Material
density

ＣＯ2

Virginresource

Goods
Production

Goods
production
Waste

Goods
Production

Goodsstock

Production
factorMaterial stockPop

OutputPolitical
variable

ServiceDemandModel

Input-Output
ModuleWaste

Macro Economic Model

Goods
demandGoods
Production

Recycleresouce

Promoteofrecycle

Develop material account matrix

World market

Production
advantages

ＧＤＰ• steel, cement• 1971-2005• 35 regions

・・・

Final
Environ Final
Production
Value Add Capital
DemandGoods
TOT
ment Stock
Sectorand Other Stock
SectorProduction
SectorGoods
Value Addand Other
Stock
goods
CapitalStock
Final
Ddemand
SectorInitialStock
TOT• Express flow and stockin one matrix• Unit：monetary term,
physical term, uniqueterm for goods• Physical information
past few decades isessential to analyzematerial flow in thefuture.
3

Progress in FY 2013 (2)Trade Module

MonetaryPhysical
Model
Constrain
ofresource

Relative
price

Goods
Production

Goods
demandGoods
Production

Recycleresource

Goods
Production

Goods
production

Goodsstock

Production
factor

Waste

Macro Economic Model

Material stockPop

OutputＧＤＰ・・・

MSFM_demand/country• Analyze country by country

PoliticalPreferenceService

DemandModel

Input-Output
ModuleWaste
Promoteofrecycle

35regions

EXP/IMPMaterialdensity

ＣＯ2

Virginresource

World market

Production
advantages• Introduce country-specificcountermeasures• User-friendly tool

Reina Kawase, Kyoto University

MSFM_demand : Material Stock and Flow Model_demand
MSFM_demand/country was separated from MSFM_demand/global.
To make possible to introduce more various countermeasures, theformulation was modified, especially in the service demand part.
The input data was controlled by Excel file. User can easily change valuesof many coefficients and variables in the future and analyze material
demand and stocks with various scenarios.
4Material Stock and Flow Model_demand/country Target : Domestic (not incl. trade)
Population
GDP Region : JapanService
 Material : Steel
Service demand
demand Periods : 2005-2050
 Description :Goods stock
Goods demand• Service demand
Material
Material density
demand12 classifications
Material stock
Material demand• Goods stocks
24 classifications
 Scenario:
CO2 Emission factor
CO2 Emission
CO2emission• FIX scenario• Fix parameters at the value in 2005
• CM scenario• Control of service demand, Change of preference• Improvement of efficiency of goods stock5• Technology progressEstimation of Service DemandBasic equation
Service demand = Service scale index * Service level index
Macro-economic
variables

Different by service

Ex：Dwelling
Dwelling floor area = Household * Floor area per dwelling
Floor area per dwelling = Household size * Floor area per capita
Ex：Passenger transport
Ps. Trs. volume(d) = population * Trs. volume per capita(d)Trs. volume per capita (d)=365.25 * Trip generation unit * distance share(d)* average distance(d)6Estimation of Service Demand (2)Ex : Other household service
Other household service index= Standard of other household service * service supply rate
Ex : Domestic waterStandard isJapan’s value(2005)

Domestic water demand= population * (household water use/capita + municipal water use/capita )Household water use/capita＝Σ（Water supply per facility * Share * Rate of access to improved water)+ Water supply per facility * (1－ Rate of access to improved water ）Ex : Other infrastructure service
Other infrastructure service index= Standard of other infrastructure service * service supply rate

7

Scenario and countermeasure
Scenario :FIX scenario, CM scenario

Commonsetting

Variables
Population （Million)
Household （Million）
Labor froce in 2&3 sector （Million）
ＧＤＰ（Bil. USD 2005price）
Power generation （Bil. kWh）

2005
126
49.1
59
4,181
683

2050
109
50.0
41
5,264
1,042

2050/2005
0.87
1.02
0.69
1.26
1.53

CM scenario : Control of service demand modal-shift of transportation
 share of material of building Improvement of efficiency of goods stock improvement of coefficient of service output
 improvement of operation rate Technology progress introduction of high-performance material(ex. Increase of share of high-tension steel for steel input)
 increase in share of electric furnace8Gap between LCS scenario and actual trend

110

1200

100

Steel stock (million ton)

1400

Stock

90

1000

80

800
600
400
200
0

Demand70
60

FIX(stock)
CM(stock)
FIX(demand)CM(demand)

50
40

Steel demand (million ton)

Steel stock and steel demand

31％49％

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 By introduction of various countermeasures, steel stock is reduced by
31% in CM scenario compared to FIX scenario.
 Steel demand can achieve the 49 % reduction.

9Goods stock in 2050
GoodsUnit
Dwelling
Mil. m2
Com. building
Mil. m2
Prd. capitalBillion USD
Pow. gen(THR) Mil. kW
Pow. gen(HYD) Mil. kW
Ps-car1000 number
Bus
1000 number
Ps-train1000 number
Bike
Share:1000
5%number-> 10 %
Bycycle1000 number
Airplain1000 number
Truck1000 number
Fr-train1000 number
Ship1000 GTR
Road
1000kmRail
1000kmHarborMil. ton
AirportMil. Ps
Irrigation
1000KM
Ind. Water.fac. Mil. m3
Water sup. fac. Mil. m3
Waste W. pr
Mil. m3Oth. infra.
MkW
Oth. metal pr. Mm3

2005
5,259
1,989
2,005
177
47
58,722226
53
13,17586,550018,357
16
13,564
1,192
20
686
116
25,56015,75024,50024,500112050 (2050/2005)
FIX scenario
CM scenairo
4,982 ( 0.95 )4,223 ( 0.80 )1,357 ( 0.68 )1,149 ( 0.58 )2,050 ( 1.02 )2,050 ( 1.02 )289 ( 1.64 )
227 ( 1.29 )
79 ( 1.66 )
26 ( 0.55 )50,431 ( 0.86 )
30,864 ( 0.53 )
194 ( 0.86 )
193 ( 0.85 )
46 ( 0.86 )
56 ( 1.05 )11,315 ( 0.86 )
13,215 ( 1.00 )74,331 ( 0.86 )42,165 ( 0.49 )0 ( 1.00 )0 ( 0.75 )20,528 ( 1.12 )21,549 ( 1.17 )
18 ( 1.14 )
36 ( 2.27 )15,670 ( 1.16 )14,964 ( 1.10 )1,097 ( 0.92 )
773 ( 0.65 )
19 ( 0.92 )
26 ( 1.27 )
779 ( 1.14 )699 ( 1.02 )99 ( 0.86 )
87 ( 0.75 )25,560 ( 1.00 )25,560 ( 1.00 )12,185 ( 0.77 )10,466 ( 0.66 )21,041 ( 0.86 )
18,373 ( 0.75 )21,041 ( 0.86 )
18,333 ( 0.75 )1 ( 1.00 )1 ( 1.00 )1 ( 1.00 )1 ( 1.00 )10

Breakdown of material stock31％

 Main contributor: building, production capital Effective countermeasure: improvement of efficiency of goods stock
introduction of high-performance material

11Breakdown of material demand9080

FIX scenario

90
80

CM scenario

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

101002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

49％

 Effective countermeasure: introduction of high-performance material
Building (50%), Production capital (40%), Transport machine (70%)
Transport infrastructure (50%) , Others (less than 30%)

12Scrap supply-demand balance

Scrap generation (million ton)

90
80
7060
50

Not collected
Obsolete scrap

4030

Process scrap

Export ofsecondhand goods

Steel production byelectric furnace

20Home scrap

1002010

2020

2030

2040

Only from production
for domestic demand
2050

Scrap generation is around 5% of steel stock.
Even though the share of electric furnace reaches 55% in 2050 (22% in2010) , Japan can be self-sufficient.
13Gap between LCS scenario and actual trend
CO2 emission (million ton CO2)

CO2 emission

14012010050％

80
60

FIX

40

CM

20

Trade-off02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

High-tension steel is produced by blast furnace. So introduction of electric
furnace has an upper limit.
How to bridge gap toward LCS: Production of high-tension steel by EAF
Increase in share of high-tension steel input

14

Task in FY 2014

• Apply MSFM_demand/country to 35 regions• Develop Monetary-Physical Model and estimate material
flow under the framework of material account matrix.
• Integrate all the modules and models

Thank you15