Future Work

Designed by Hajime Sakai

Session X
Junichi Fujino
The 12th AIM International Workshop
19-21, February 2007, NIES/Tsukuba/Japan1

650550500

GHG475ppm 475

10・Replacement of working/living place・Public transportation

SD・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles,
Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles

EE
CI

・Nuclear energy
・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage
・CO2-free hydrogen supply

CI

9MtC
30MtC

CCS

11MtC

41MtC

30MtC

CarbonIntensity
(CI)
79

CCS
30

CCS: Carbon Capture Storage

Large GHG cut is possible in Japan

2100

2090

2080

2070

5US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term vision

Germany

2FranceM ETI, JapanDeveloping countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario

W orld
1

China

IB1

India

0

Target forLow Carbon SocietyIA2

2050

Energy supply

CI

11MtC

Supply side

Transportation

・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof

21MtC

EnergyEfficiency
(EE)
78

2040

EE

8MtC

2030

・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater,lighting system

16MtC

2020

SD

CO2 emissions
and Target$200/t-C scenario

US2010・Use of high insulation system
・Control of home energy system

27MtC

2000

CI1990・Increase rate of natural gas use

60-80%.

GHG-650ppm

61980

EE

1970

Residential・Production efficiency improvement

23MtC

amountServiceDemand(SD)40Japanese
reduction
target in 2050

How to structure
7
global participationCurrent per capita
Demand sideSoci Industetyry

Activity

amount*GHG-550ppm

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

Category・reduce raw material production
・decrease numbers of population/household* CO2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000

2060

年YearPossible trend-breaking
options toachieve
BaU
GHG-475ppm
GHG-500ppm
70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan

・Advanced fire plant + CCS
・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

2050

1990

2040

0年
Year

Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissions

550
500

50%reduction

52030

GHG: Greenhouse gases
0.0

650

2020

1.0

15

2010

2.0

LowCarbon
Society
Project

BaU

2000

Calculated byAIM model

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHGemissions(Gt-Ceq)

3.0

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature raise
気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)(above the pre-industriallevel)

5.0 control temperature raise
25To
Global
GHG emissions should
BaU be reduced by 50% in 2050
below 2oC (EU target)
Japan
4.020

2Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Junichi Fujino, Jan 12 2007 at Iddri, Paris, fuji@nies.go.jp

We support country-wise LCS modelingthrough SD for Asia-Pacific and the world- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 -Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Oct 16-20, 2006 at NIESIndia

China

Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia BrazilRussia

South Taiwan,Africa China

USAJapan

http://2050.nies.go.jp
3Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
Through Sustainable Development
1st WS
Executive
SummaryJapan-UK LCS study
invite all countries tostructure global LCS
UK
EU
China
AfricaIndia

COP12 side event
Nov 8, 2006@Nairobi

Organized by MOEJ, Defra
Facilitated by NIES,UKERC, Tyndall Centre
First workshop in Tokyo, June 2006
Second workshop in London, June 2007

DesignJapan
towardJapan LCSJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Scientificbackgroundfor G8 2008
in JapanUSA

Collaborative
Thai LCS researchland
in Asia andfurtherOceania

Japan LCS study (FY2004-2008)
Global Environment Research Fund of MOEJ
60research experts from NIES, Kyoto Univ.,
TIT, Univ. of Tokyo, and others
All information is available on http://2050.nies.go.jp

Latin
America
AIM Training Workshop since1997
Oct 16-20, 2006@Tsukuba（Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

Global Launch of
Scientific, Technological,
and Social Innovation
4to Develop LCS

Japan-UK 2nd LCS workshop
in London, UKWorkshop details•Date: Wednesday 13 – Friday 15 June 2007
•Venue: The Mermaid Conference & Events Centre,
Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London, EC4V 3DB. http://www.the-mermaid.co.uk/
Wednesday 13June

Thursday 14 June

Friday 15 June

am Open / high level

Analytical / modeloutput

Practicalities – howto achieve LCS (2)pm LCS scene setting/ context

Practicalities – how Wrap up
to achieve LCS (1)•Raising awareness of potential benefits of transitioning to a LCS.
•Suggesting how to close the gap between the business as usual and LCS scenarios.
•Developing the framework for a map of LCS activities.
5

Japan-UK Joint Research Project
LCS（Low-Carbon Society）

for Global Participation
A First workshop was heldin Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.
A Second workshop will be heldin London, June13-15, 2007.

G8 JapanJune 2008

A Third workshop may be heldin Japan, Feb, 2008.

6

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Things to do by Feb 2008
Japan
• Develop Roadmaps using Advanced and ClassicalModels including cost analysis• Mapping of LCS related activities• Translate our research activities for public
China, India, Thailand, Brazil• Develop 2050 visions• Develop roadmaps (research based)
UK, Germany, France, and other LCS-positive countries• Develop good roadmaps
Other countries• Ask to join our activities!
7Schedule•••••••••••••The middle of May, 2007: CSD in New York, USAMay 2007: SBSTA in Bonn, Germany
May 2007: Workshop on Climate Change for G8 Germany
June 2007: G8 Germany
June 13-15, 2007: Japan-UK 2nd LCS workshop in London, UK
the end of June, 2007
IEW (International Energy Workshop) in Stanford, USA
EMF22 in Stanford, USA (+ IPCC consortium?)
Oct/Nov 2007: AIM Training Workshop
Nov/Dec, 2007: COP13 in Bali, Indonesia
Jan 2008: World Economic Forum in Davos, SwitzerlandFeb 2008 : Japan-UK 3rd LCS workshop in London, UK
Feb 2008 : The 13th AIM International Workshop in Tsukuba
March 2008 : G20 Energy & Environment Ministerial Roundtable inJapan
June 2008 : G8 Japan
8What we will do andwhere we can go for

LCS
through
Sustainable
Development

9Energy
supplysectorEnergysupplymodel

Industrial
sector：Model：Output of model：Data flow

Household Prd.
& lifestyle model
Residential energy
service model

Commercial energy
service model

Preferenceof household

Investment
Efficiency

Stock
Production amountPassenger Trns.
demand model
Freight Trns.
demand modelIndustrial
production model

Population
Labor

Transportation
sectorServiceMaterial stock & flow model

Commercial
sectorEnvironmental option database, Bottom-up engineering model

Residential
sectorMacroeconomy

Activity

Inter-sector and macro economic model

Stock
Building dynamic model

Energy supply& demand

Population
andhousehold
model
EnergyExtendedSnapshotTool
Snapshot

EnergyBackcastbalance
table
Model

Check consistency!
10

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Japan LCS scenarios

July 7th 2006, Tanabata "Seven Evenings" LCS Festival

SachikoTsukahara

MahoMiyashita

11

Discussions!

12crossDesigned by Hajime Sakai (airbox-pin@nyc.odn.ne.jp)
13