The 21st AIM International Workshop
November 13-15, 2015
NIESTsukuba, Japan

Thailand’s INDC
Bundit Limmeechokchai
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
Thammasat University

Robust Roadmap to Thailand NAMAs 2020
Transport sector

Industry

Power sector
Renewable

ResidentialBuildingsThailand’s INDC 2030
Thailand’s INDC actions are in line with national
development plans, and aimed at achieving a reduction inemissions relative to 'business as usual' emissions in 2030,
resulting in GHG mitigation, and has an impact that can bemeasured, reported and verified (MRV).
Thailand is now implementing a national strategy“Roadmap to Thailand NAMAs 2020” with clear targets ofemission reduction in the range of 20% in 2020 on thebasis of domestic resources.
The AIM/Enduse model is again used to construct
emission pathways for analysis of “Thailand’s INDC 2030”.

COP20 Lima, 9 December 2014

Minister of MONRE pledged Thailand’s NAMA in Lima COP20“……… Thailand will lower CO2 emissions in therange of 7-20% in 2020 when compared to the BAU”

Thailand’s INDCs Approval Process

INDCs preliminary results, Dec 2014
Stakeholder consultations, Dec 2014-Aug 2015

Dept. of Treaties and Legal Affairs
to determine with parliamentary
approval is required.

INDC Sub-committee Approval

Approved on 2 Sept 2015

National Committee (NCCC) Approval

Approved on 24 Sept 2015

Cabinet Approval

Approved on 30 Sept 2015

Parliamentary Approval (if needed)
Submission to UNFCCC

Submitted on 1 OCT 2015

INDC UFI is used to develop Thailand’s INDC
Base year

2005

Target year

2030

SectorPower, transportation, buildings, residential,manufacturing industries, wastes, agriculture,industrial processes

Gases

Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),
Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)Global Warming Potential

IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4)Modeling tool

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse)

Modeling Approach

Bottom-up/End-use approach(by technologies and CO2 countermeasures)

GDP growth

3.94% p.a. (revised by TH Govt in 2015)

Population growth

0.03% p.a. (revised by TH Govt in 2015)

Energy prices

Oil prices (International Energy Agency, 2015)

Technology
database
Planningprocesses

Updated SIIT Technology Database 2015 for Thailand• (Central) National Economic and Social Development Plans• (MONRE) Climate Change Master Plan, 2015-2050• (MOEN) Power Development Plan, 2015-2036• (MOEN) Thailand Smart Grid Development Master Plan, 2015-2036• (MOEN) Energy Efficiency Plan, 2015-2036• (MOEN) Alternative Energy Development Plan, 2015-2036• (MOT) Rail Transport System Master Plan, 2013-2030• (MOI) National Industrial Development Master Plan, 2012-2031• (MONRE) Waste Management Roadmap

Intl market
mechanism

Thailand will explore the potentials of bilateral international MBM

Projection of Thailand's Economy-Wide GHG Emissions
In the BAU of Thailand’s INDC
600

Total Energy (BAU)Non Energy (BAU)

555

500

Emission (Mt CO2 Eq.)

429
400

300

492

426373

301

320

214
200
10002010

2020

2025

2030

Notes: 1) Non energy emissions include wastes, agriculture and IPPU. LULUCF is excluded.

INDC Screening Criteria••••••

Consistent with National Policies among Ministries
Technical feasibility of implementation such as CCS
Feasibility & acceptable MRVSocial acceptance such as nuclear
Return on investment: PBP and IRR
Abatement costs

Selected MACs in building sector
400
Efficient heating

Average Abatement cost ($/t-CO2)

350
Efficient office equipment300250
200

Efficient AC COP8150
Efficient AC COP5100

T5 lighting

LED lighting

500070,290

Abatement Potential (kt-CO2)

Selected MACs in Industries
100

Average Abatement cost ($/t-CO2)

80

New natural
gas turbine

Renewable
Energy60
New natural
gas thermal
power plantand efficientlignite thermal
power plant

40

200

Efficient natural gas
combined cycle
power plant

Efficient coalsteam power
plant0290,777

Abatement Potential (kt-CO2)

Comparison of CO2 emissions in 2030
Residential

CommercialIndustry

TransportPower600

CO2 emission (Mt-CO2eq)50012%

489 Mt-CO2eq

400

20%15%426 Mt
363 Mt340 Mt300
200
10002030 BAU NAMAs

2030 revised BAU

2030 INDC152030INDC20Year

Solar PV

Wind

HydroWaste

Biomass

Biogas

2nd GenTOTAL

2014
2036

1 298
6 000

225
3 000

3 048
3 282

66
500

2 542
5 570

312
600

680

7 490
19 634

Source: AEDP2015 (Sept, 2015)
UNIT: MW

INDC20 in 2030 by AIM/Enduse
Solar PV = 500 MW
Wind = 300 MW
Hydro = 1 600 MW
Biomass = 3 300 MW

20132017 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033

2036

Thailand’s Economy-wide GHG Emissions
Thailand’s INDC: Ambitious Target of 20-25% in 2030

UN NY, 30 Sept 2015
PM applauds 2030 Agenda, pledges work towards a sustainable
Thailand including INDC 2030“…. On Thailand’s part,
we reaffirm ourcommitment under the
Intended Nationally
Determined
Contributions (INDCs)
to reduce our GHG
emissions between 20
and 25% by 2030”…

How Thailand Achieves INDC
National Economic and Social Development Plan
Climate Change Master Plan 2015-2050
Adaptation
to CC
Consequences

GHG Mitigationand Low-Carbon
Development

Capacity Building

Source: MONRE (2015)

Economy-Wide GHG Mitigation Potential in 203012 %If compared to NAMA Baseline,
INDC20 = 30%

Thailand’s Post2020 Scenarios
Low Emission Pathway and Peak CO2 Scenarios
2050BAU

30%
2050LCS

20%
Peak CO2

Conclusions• In 2030 Thailand’s INDC will not result intransformational changes.
• To achieve the objective, Thailand needs, i) Institutional
Arrangement ii) Capacity Building, iii) sustainable Feedin Tariff scheme for RE, iv) enforcement of EE laws inbuildings and industries, v) co-funding of the LCS
actions in both demand side and clean supply side
including low carbon Technology Transfer.
• The Peak target will not be achieved if it is not planned& implemented in the early stage.
• In addition, M R V of such LCS actions are of necessity.

Selected LCS publication using AIM in FY2015
Journals
1. Sujeetha and Bundit (2015). Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sectorof an emerging economy—the AIM/Enduse modelling approach, Energy Policy, Vol.
81, June 2015, pp. 199-214.
2. Panida, Kamphol and Bundit (2015). Alternative energy and CO2 mitigation in Thai
transport sector: an end-use modeling approach and co-benefits analysis,
Information-An International Interdisciplinary Journal, Vol. 18, No. 3, March 2015,pp. 941-963.
3. Sujeetha Selvakkumaran; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Toshihiko Masui; Tatsuya Hanaoka;
and Yuzuru Matsuoka (2015). A quantitative analysis of low carbon society (LCS)
measures in Thai industrial sector, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol.
43 (March 2015), pp. 178-195.
4. Artite Pattanapongchai and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015). Alternative energy
technologies for long-term power generation expansion planning and CO2 mitigation inThailand, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp.
271-280.
5. Puttipong Chunark, Panida Thepkhun, Kamphol Promjiraprawat, Pornphimol
Winyuchakrit and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015). Low Carbon Transportation inThailand: CO2 Mitigation Strategy in 2050. SpringerPlus, Vol.4, No.618, pp.1-31.

Selected LCS publication using AIM in FY2015
Conference Proceedings• Puttipong Chunark1 and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015). Energy Saving Potential and CO2
Mitigation Assessment Using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Enduse in Thailand Energy Sectors.
Proceedings of 2015 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries andEmerging Economies (2015 AEDCEE) [CD-ROM], 28-29 May 2015, Bangkok, Thailand• R. Jayatilaka, Pradeep and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015). Scenario based assessment of CO2
mitigation pathways: a case study in Thai transport sector, Proceedings of 2015 International
Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies (2015 AEDCEE)[CD-ROM], 28-29 May 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, pp. 281-282.
• Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015). Low carbon scenarios for an energy
import-dependent Asian country: the case study of Sri Lanka, Proceedings of 2015 International
Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies (2015 AEDCEE)[CD-ROM], 28-29 May 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, pp. 275-276.
• Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Chontichaprin Nithisuttibuta; and Bundit Limmeechokchai (2015).
Thailand’s post-2020 greenhouse gas emissions regime in the energy sector, Proceedings of 2015
International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies(2015 AEDCEE) [CD-ROM], 28-29 May 2015, Bangkok, Thailand, pp. 273-274.

• Pemika Misila; Bundit Limmeechokchai; and Pornphimol Winyuchakrit (2015). Roadmap toThailand’s nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) 2020: energy security and co-benefit
aspects, Proceedings of 2015 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing
Countries and Emerging Economies (2015 AEDCEE) [CD-ROM], 28-29 May 2015, Bangkok, Thailand,
pp. 141-142.

AP OUTLOOKSCoordinating Lead Authors:
Bundit Limmeechokchai (TH)Mark Elder (IGES-JAPAN)
Jia Gensuo (CHINA)

Source: Draft, GEO6 (UNEP, 2015)

JCM, MOE Japan