Japan Low-Carbon Society
Scenarios Study- Feasibility of 70% CO2 emissions
reductions towards 2050
20 0 1. If we cannot go to LCS,…
1LCS
2. LCS offers higher QOL withless energy demand andlower-carbon energy supply
3. LCS needs good design,early
l action,ti
andd innovationsiti

Junichi Fujino(fuji@nies.go.jp)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
AIM Training Workshop, Tsukuba, Oct 27, 2008

1

CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, JapanoC))
Surface Air TemperaturepChangeg (1900=0(2
http://2050.nies.go.jp

3
http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
gand Target

6$200/t-C scenarioUS5

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4
UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term visionGerm anyy

2

F
FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario gguidance toward LCS is keyyJapan 2050
scenario

W orld
China

2050

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

2040

IB1

India

0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA2

2030

1

1970

CO2 peer capita emissioons (t-C//cap)

7

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
4
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions
E
EnergyC b
CarbonPer capita
P
it
Intensity
Intensity
activity
Total amount
Activity
EnergyCO2
CO2 emissions＝Pop ×××Pop
Activity
Energy60-80%
60
80% reductions
integral

To
otal

Chan
nge
rate

entialdiffereKaya identity

Change rate＝speed

EnergyCO2
Activity
CO2emission Pop
＝
＋ Pop
gy
p ＋ Activityy ＋ Energy
Change rate Change ratechange rate change rate change rate
-2~3%/year
2~3%/year -0.5%/year
1 5%/year
0 5%/year 1.5%/year
The case of Japan LCS

1%/year

Y%/year

X%/year-3~4%/year

5Required improvement rate ofcarbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS
Energy Intensity
C b IIntensity
Carbontit (CCS only)l )Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS)

Historical trend
Japan Scenario A
Japan ScenarioB

60-80%
reductions
towards 2050

U.K.
FranceGermany
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y)

Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity
compared as that of the historical record!
6Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
[FY2004-2008,[FY2004
2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE]
Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Techno-Socio Innovation study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportation
systemIT-society

EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechangeh

GHG reduction target

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

20
010

20
050

Intervention
scenario

20020（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

20000

Integration
Team

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

BaU scenario
E
EnergysavingiTech.
h innovation

19990

Development of socioeconomic scenarios,
scenarios
evaluating countermeasures with socialeconomic-technology
models

GHG emissiion

Urban structure

Advisorydbboard：
dadvice to project

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid
5
3
1
-1

EquitySuitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

5 teams
60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy
7

Japan LCS (Low-Carbon(Low Carbon Society) (FY2004-2008)(FY2004 2008)
Research Project supported by
Global Environmental Research Fund, MOEJ

8

Scenario Approach to Develop
Japan Low-Carbon
Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Depictingsocioeconomic
visions
in 2050
Step1

Estimatingenergygy
servicedemands
Step2

Exploring
innovations
for energy
demands
and energy
supplies
Step3

CheckingChkipotentials
for energy
supplyQuantifying
energyddemanddand supply
to estimate
CO2
emissions

p
Step5

Step4
Achievingg energygy
related CO2
emissions target

9Visions

we prepared two different
but likely future societies for Japan
Vision A

Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa10

We prepared models to quantify the LCSs
Element models;
1) Snapshot models;Inter-sector and Macro Economic model
Energy technology bottom-up models
Energy supply modelTransportation demand model
2) Transition models;P
Populationl ti andd householdhh ld modeld l
Building dynamics model
Integration tool;
Snapshot Integration Tool (SSI)

11

Population and Household Model• Drastic change
g is projectedp j
in Japan’s
ppopulationp p
structure by
y 2050.
Downturn in birthrate, depopulation and aging will continue until 2050, andthey affect greatly the future vision.
• A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate modelfor householdl types, with spatiall resolutionlof provinces, land-use
ltypes
and climate zones and five family types was developed, and is used toanalyze effects of depopulation and changes in family composition on therealization
li ti off LCS
LCS.
Total population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Life table[Sex Age][Sex,

Consistency

Province-wiselife table[S Age][Sex,
A ]Province-wise
Population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Fertility rate
[Age]
Consistency

International
Net migration
Net-migration(Japanese)
Total population(Period T)[Sex, Age]International
net-migration(Outsider)

AdjustmentjConsistency

Headship rate
[Sex, Age, Family]

Total
Tt l numberb offHousehold(Period T)[Family-wise]

Province-wise
fertility rate
[Age]

: Data flow
: Exogenous variable: Endogenous variable

Province-wisenet-migration[Sex, Age]

Province-wiseheadship rate
[Sex Age[Sex,
Age, Family]
Province-wiseclimatic division
share
Province-wiselanduse Cls.
share

Flowchart of PHM

LLandusedCl
Cls.-wisei
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]

Province-wise
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]Cli ti zone
Climatic-wise household(Period T)[ Family]

Province-wisePiihousehold(Period T)[Family]

12

Population
2000年

2050年

127billion

scenario A: 94bil

85-

scenarioB:100bil

85-

80-84

80-84

75-79

75-79

70-74

70-74

65-69

65-69

60 64
60-64

60-64

55-59

55-59

50-54

50-54

45-49

45 49
45-49

40-44

40-44

35-39

35-39

30-34

30-34
30
34

25-29

25-29

20-24

20-24

15-19

15-19

10-14
10-14
5-9

5-9

A男
B男
A女
B女

0-4
0-4
6,000

4,000

2,000

女（千人）

0

2,000

4,000

男（千人）

6,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

女（千人）

0

2,000

4,000

男（千人）

13

Projection Japan population and households in
scenario
i A

120

age

100

8060-79

80

40-59
20-39
0-19

60
40
20

100%

Typ
pe of houusehold (%%)

80%

Others60%

ParentChild
Children
One-Person

40%

Couple-Only

20%

0

CoupleChildren

year
Population (million)
Aged population ratio (%)
Average number of household
Single-person households (%)

2000
126.9
17.4
2.71
27.6

A
94.5
53.7
2.19
42.6

205
50

204
45

204
40

203
35

203
30

202
25

202
20

201
15

201
10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

200
05

0%
200
00

llion)
Pop
pulation(Mi(Thhousand)

140

2050

B
100.3
35.8
2.38
35.1
14

7

6

5

0
0
8 5~

1

85
5~

80~8
84

75~7
79

70~7
74

65~6
69

60~6
64

55~5
59

4,000

80 ~
~8 4

2

1

75 ~
~7 9

2

70 ~
~7 4

u

50~5
54

Employee (1000)

65 ~
~6 9

4
45~4
49

F

60 ~
~6 4

2000
2050A
2050B

55 ~
~5 9

8

50 ~
~5 4

Working time (men, hour/day)

45 ~
~4 9

0
40~4
44

M

40 ~
~4 4

0
35~3
39

1,000

35 ~
~3 9

1,000

30~3
34

2,000

30 ~
~3 4

2,000

25~2
29

3 000
3,000

25 ~
~2 9

3 000
3,000

20~2
24

2000
2050A
2050B

15~1
19

5,000

20 ~
~2 4

5
85
5~

Employee (1000)

15 ~
~1 9

6

885~

7
80~8
84

75~7
79

70~7
74

65~6
69

60~6
64

55~5
59

50~5
54

45~4
49

40~4
44

35~3
39

30~3
34

25~2
29

20~2
24

15~1
19

4,000

80~
~ 84

75~
~ 79

70~
~ 74

65~
~ 69

60~
~ 64

55~
~ 59

3

50~
~ 54

45~
~ 49

40~
~ 44

35~
~ 39

30~
~ 34

25~
~ 29

20~
~ 24

15~
~ 19

Labor Force and Working time
2000年
2050年A
2050年B

5,000
2000
2050A
2050B

Working time (men, hour/day)
8
2000
2050A
2050B

4

3

age

15

Projection of urbanization

Population (mill.)

140

Forest-rural

120

Forest-central city

100

Forest-Metropolitan
Agricultural-rural

80

Agricultural-central
Agricultural
central city
Agricultural-metropolitan

60

Urban-Regional

40

Urban-Central

20

Urban-Core

0

U b M tUrban-Metropolitan
lit

2000

Rural

ABABABABABABABABABABAB
2010

year

2020

2030

2040

Urban

2050

2000

Population (million)
126.9
Urban population(%)
78.1
Agricultural area population(%) 8.2
Forest area population(%)
13.7

A
94.5
84.2
7.1
8.7

2050

B
100.3
76.7
8.5
14.8
16

Building Dynamics Model• Enhancement of building insulation is very effective countermeasures.
60% of the heatingg demand from the residential sector can be cut down,,
if appropriate insulation systems are installed. Besides, configuration ofbuildings in urban and rural area affects social energy efficiency greatly.
• In order to take accountthese factors, a model ofb ildin dbuilding
dynamics
n mi s (BDM)
was developed.

Number of dwelling stock(year T-1)

Number ofhouseholds

Population andHousehold Model

Number of new dwellings(year T)

Share by type ofbuilding

Survival rat• It is a cohorthmodel
d l withhaspatial resolution ofclimate zones, four heatinsulation levels, four
residential building types,
and six commercial
building types.

Unoccupied rate

[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level,
construction year]

Share by region
Share byconstruction material

Survived number of dwellings(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material,
insulation level
level, construction year]

Share byinsulation level

Number of new dwellings(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level]

Renovation rate

Number of dwelling stock(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction materialmaterial,
insulation level, construction year]

Householdproduction andlifestyle model
Bottom-up
engineeringmodel：endogenous variable：exogenous variable

Flowchart of BDM (residential)
17

Projection of residential building stock byinsulation level,
level Scenario A
60

1999 standard

Million hou
uses

50

1992 standard
1980 standard

40

Without insulation

30

Projection
jbased onenhanced
policy(Scenario A)

1999 standard

20

1992 standard

10

1980 standard

0

Projection
based onpresent
policyWithout insulation
2003

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

18

Passenger Transportation Demand Model• Many effective countermeasures exist related with transportation. Modal shift
from private motor vehicles to mass transit systems, urban planning towards
compact cities, transportation substitution with diffusions of teleworking andvirtual communication systems and so on.
• Passenger Transportation Demand
Model ((PTDM)) can simulatetransportation demand associatedwith changes in population
distribution, people’s activity
patterns modal shares and average
patterns,
trip distances.
• The demands in this model are
divided into two types,1)Intra-regional transportation
within the daily living area,
area2)Inter-region transportation
between the daily living areas,

Macro Economic Model
Population Dynamic Model

Population[Attribute, Area]
Employment[Attribute]
License[Attribute]

Population[Attribute, Area]

Population[Attribute]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Day, Area, Objective]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Objective, Mode]Modal
M
d l ShShare(%)[Day, Area, Mode]Modal
M
d l ShShare(%)[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Day, Area, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Mode]
Intra-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Inter-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]：Data Flow

Net-Total
Conversion ratio：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables
Passenger Transportation[Persons-km]

and they are calculated separately.
Intra-Area Transportation

Inter-Area Transportation

19

Passenger Transportation Demand Model (2)Sc
Scenarionar o A
1,200,000

450,000
400,000

1,000,000

350,000
800,000

300,000
250,000

600,000

200,000
400,000

150,000
100,000

200,000

50,000
0

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Inter-region transportation demand by mode Intra-region transportation demand by modeof transportation (mil. person-km)
Buses

Aviationof transportation (mil. person-km)
Pass cars
Pass.cars

Maritime

Railways

W alk&Bike• Coupled with population decrease, and intensive decreasing policy of average trip
distance such as the compaction of neighborhood communities causes significant
distance,
decrease of intra-regional transportation demand.
• In addition, the share of railways transportation will increase rapidly due to thepromotion of modal shift from car to train.

20

InterInter-sector and Macro Economic Model• Projecting macro economic activity, sectoral production, and also taking account thecountermeasures proposed in the individual models, we developed “Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model (IMEM)”, which consists of a sequential dynamic general equilibrium
module and a macroeconomic module.
• The
Th modeld l can beb usedd tot estimate
ti t nationaltil andd sectoraltl economici activities,
ti itiththe iimpactstof energy efficient and dematerialization technologies in industrial sectors, developmentof informatization, and increase of service sectors.
Macroeconomic module

energyoutput coefficient
on non-energy

input

data in
2000

commodity dem
mandimport&exportt

SNA

IO tablein 2000⑩②⑥
production and income⑪
outputext. trnsact.
account

input coefficient
on non-energy⑥

output matrix

assumption⑧①

V matrixin 2000

tech

account ofinc. & expnd.

tech&preference

input matrix

energy balance table(output)

nonenergy①

CO2⑥
production and cost

output coefficient ①
on energy
tech

⑫

⑦

balancecondition

fixed capitalformation
matrix in 2000
tech②

capital profile
in sector⑨
productionsocialfixed capital stock
matrix⑪
capital stock⑩

com
mpensationof ccap. goods

③

⑫

②

commoditty supply

capitalintermediatedemand

cap.
goods

④

labor

final demand sector

energy balance table(input)vvalue nonenergyaaddedenergy balancetable in 2000⑤

investment

eneergytech⑦

economic
growthproduction sector①

final cons

Input coefficienton energy

CGE module① production function② commodity market③ capital market④ labor market⑤ calculation of GDE⑥ expenditure and income
in production sector⑦ expenditure and income
in household andgovernment⑧ assumption of import andexport⑨ fixed capital stock
matrix⑩ investment goods market⑪ capital stock⑫ CO2 emissions

Structure of Inter-sector Module

21

200

150

Agricultu
ure, Forestry an
nd Fishing
MiningFoo
od products & bbeverages
TextilesTimbe
er and Woodenn products
Pump. Paper & paper products
Publishing & printing
ganic chemical materials
OrgMed
dicaments
Other chemicaO
al products
Petroleum reffinary and Coa
al products
CementOther ceramicc products
Stee
el products
Non-ferrrous metalFaabricated meta
al products
MachieryElec.Machine, equip. & supplies
Transport eequipment
Precision in
nstruments
Other mannufacturing
Co
onstruction
Power & ga
as supplies
Wa
ater supply
Wholesale & rretail tradeW
Finance & insurance
Real estate
R
Transport
Communications
Public adm
ministration
School education andd research
Medical, He
ealth and Social security
Other publiic services
Other businesO
ss services
Amusement and recreationaA
al services
Eaating and drink
king places
Hotel aand other lodging places
Other persona
al services
Office supplies
Activities not elsewheree classified

Dom
mestic prod
ducts, trillio
on JPY

Projected sector productions in year 2050

2000
2050A
2050B

100

50

0

22

Quantification
Quantf cat on of Scenario
Sc nar o A an
and B inn 20505
year
Population
Household

unit

2000

Mil.
Mil.

Average number of person
per household
GDP
Share of production
primary
secondarytertiary

2050

127
47

A
94 (74%)( %)43 (92%)B
100 (79%)( %)42 (90%)

2.7

2.2

2.4

Tril.JPY

519

%
%
%

2%
28%
71%

1,080 (208%)
1%
18%
80%

model
Population and Householdmodel

701 (135%)
2%
20%
79%

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model
Building dynamics Model &Office floor space

Mil.m

2

1654

1,934 (117%)

1,718 (104%)

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model

Travel Passenger volume
Private car
Public transport
Walk/bycycle
Freight transport volume

bill. p・km
%
%
%

1,297
53%
34%
7%

1045 (81%)
32%
52%
7%

963 (74%)
51%
38%
8%

bill t・km
bill.

570

608 (107%)490 (86%)100

126 (126%)

90 (90%)Industrial production index
Steel production

Mil.t

107

67 (63%)58 (54%)

Etylen production

Mil.t

8

5 (60%)

3 (40%)C
Cementproduction
d
i

Mil
Mil.t

82

51 (62%)47 (57%)

Paper production

Mil.t

32

18 (57%)26 (81%)

Transportation demandmodel & Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000

23

Utilizing solar power

Visions andInnovations
Eco-life education

Photovoltaic

10-20% energy(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%))demanddd reductiond ti
34-69MWand develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

LCS house in 2050
Comfortable andenergy-saving houserooftopp
gardeningHigh efficiency
lighting

Solar heating【eg LED lighting】

Diffusion rate: 20-60%

Reduce 1/2
energy demand
Share 100%

（currently 8%）

Monitoring system

High-insulationequipped with appliances

Reduce 60% warming
energy demand,
share 100%

Super highefficiency air
conditioner
COP (coefficients ofperformance=8),
share 100%

Stand-by energy
reduction
ReduceRd
1/3 energy
demand,share 100%

Fuel cellHeat-pumpp p heatinggGood information foreconomy and environment
makes people’s behavior
low-carbon

share 0-20%
0 20%

COP＝5
share 30-70%

High
g e
efficiency
c e cy app
appliances
a ces
reduce energy demand and24
5support comfortable and safe lifestyleProjected energy efficiency improvement:
Air--conditioners for cooling and heating
Air
9.0
MOE
CO
OP (Coeffficient of performa
ance)

8.0
Historical

AIST

7.0
6.0

Best
METI

2050s
Target

METI

5.0
4.0

Average

3.0
Worst
20
2.0

Top-runner approach

1.0
0.0
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

2000

Res/Com
Total energy demand2030

1 time2050

2100

1.5 times

2.1 times

Energygy supplied
ppfrom Residential
transformation sector* Commercial

60%
45%
reduction
reduction
55%
35%
Residential 3.5 t-CO2/household (1 time) 1.9 t-CO2/household (1/2 times)1.1 t-CO2/household (1/3 times)
118 kg-CO2/m2 (1 time)
77 kg-CO2/m2 (2/3 times)
40 kg-CO2/m2 (1/3 times)
Commercial

CO2 intensity

80%
reduction80%
0 t-CO2/household
0 kg-CO2/m2*The percentage of reduction of energy per unit should be supplied from the transformation sector, compared with total energy demand increases in proportion to
GDP
GDP.

Energy saving
Efficiency improvement of equipment
Lighting with less heat loss
Improving thermal performanceof housing and building
Efficient heating→

Equipment with less heat loss→

Active control of sun shading and thermal insulation

Efficient heat transfer, preheating by unused energy

Improving electric power conversion efficiency→

Electric power conversion with least loss

Self-sustaining

Food storage at room temperature
Energy saving enables equipment using little energy

Utilization of ubiquitous energy(minute pressure, temperature difference, vibration, radiowaves, etc.)

Energy creation from ubiquitous energy

Photovoltaic generation

Installation in all places such as PV paintInstallation in windows
Installation in curved surfaces
Installation facilitation

0 t-CO2/household
0 kg-CO2/m2

E
Energycreationti Efficiency improvement and increase of durability
Energy management
BEMS•HEMS

Self-sustainable housing and building

Demand management →Management of demand and energy creation →Energy accommodation in community(Energy supply in community)→

Supply and storage management in community→

Supply and demand management in community 26

Energy Technology Roadmap 2100 (METI, Japan)
http://www.iae.or.jp/2100.html

TEMS

Self-sustainable community

Innovations
Residential sector
Energy reduction potential: 40
40-50%
50%70
60
En
nergy Cons
sumption (M
Mtoe)

3
50

3

4

4

9
Hi Insulated
Hi-Insulated
housing
12

40
23
17
EnergyEffiency

30

Change of the numbersof households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of service
demand per household
Improvementpof energygyefficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption20

Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption
0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
27
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

UK,, Februaryy 2005
Japan,
p , June 2005“40% House”
Guidance for Self-sustained28
60% reductions Residential, 50% reductions

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/TheMeetingPlace/Activities/Activities2007/0706AchievingSustainableLCS.aspx

How to reduce CO2 emissions frompassenger transportationtt ti
sectort
Demand managemente g by informatione.g.
informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]

⎛ Vkm
CO2
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[ hi l k per Pkm(Tkm)][vehicle-km
Pk (Tk )]Improve accessibility[[passenger-km
k or ton-kmt k
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK joint research project workshop (2007.6)

29

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2 50
2.50

Tokyo Met.

Nagoya Met.

Osaka Met.

2.00

Other Areas

1.50

Freight vehicles

1.00

Passenger cars

0.50
0.00
[t/year]
0
CO2 per capita

2000

4000

6000

8000 10000 12000 14000

Accumulated population [million]

Each Area is categorized in
1 Major cities
1.
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties
C

Passenger car emissions(t-CO2/capita)
Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK
joint research project workshop (2007.6)

30

Passenger transportation
E
Energyddemandd reduction
d ti potential:
t ti l 80%
60
Energyy demandds (Mtoe)1

4

6
Decreaseof demand
7
4
Modal shift50

6 Change
Land use

40

Energy Efficiency
30

32
28

Change of totaltransportation amount
Change of structure oftransportation
D
Decrease
off serviceidemandImprovement ofenergy efficiency
Electricity
H2
Solar

20

Biomass

10

Gas
Oil

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy demands in
2000

31

New concepts for personal mobility

Yamaha EC-02
the Segway Humana spo teTransporter

Toyota i
i-Swing
Swing
Kawamura cycle KE(catalog information)

32

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
50
2000(Actual)

100

150

Industrial

200

250

300

350

400

Trans. Prv.
Residential
Commercial
Trans Frg
Trans.
Frg.

2050(Scenario A)
Decrease ofenergy demand2050(Scenario B)
Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Trans Prv
Trans.
Prv.

Trans Frg
Trans.
Frg.

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 30～40％
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 50％
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 40-50％33Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

What is Low Carbon
Energy Supply System?
Large-scale
Large
scale
Supplier

Large-scale
St
Storage

Small scale
Small-scale
Storage

Consumer

And we need low-carbon energy.
gyLarge-scale
Grid
How
to
mix
with
Renewables
Electricity
Electricity
Distributed
RenewableenergyRenewables
NuclearHeat Pump
NuclearenergyStationaryyRenewables
Electrolysis
Fuel Cell
Heat
Fossilfuel+
CCS
Fossil Fuel
Fuel Cell
VehicleHydrogenCCS (Carbon
Capture andStorage)

Bi f lBiofuelTrans
portation34

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Fujino (2005)

Energy supply for achieving 70% reductionof CO2 emissions
Primarya y Energy
e gy Co
Consumption
su pt o (Mtoe)( toe)
100
2000(Actural)

Coal

400

500

600

Gas

Nuclear

2050(Scenario B)
Oil

300

Oil

2050(Scenario A)

Coal

200

Biomass
Gas

Biomass

Solar and Wind
Nuclear

Hydro

35

Solar and Wind

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society
Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳ
with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050
Change of activity

10
13
90

38
9
7
28

Industry

21

6
1
24

Resid
dential &com
mmercial

6

17

41
77

Transportaation

36

En
nergy supply

36
CCS

2050 CO2 Emission

Improvement oofenergy intensityof end‐useImmprovement of Improvement of
caarbon intensity carbon intensity
off energy supplyof end‐use

Energy demand seector
Energy supply secttor

70% reductioon2000 CO2 EEmission

1990 CO2 EEmission

Reductionof demand

Changeof activity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient
Efficient heat pump air
air‐conditioner,
conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All‐electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergygy intensityy
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
Storage・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor‐driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel‐cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

36

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario B: Slow Nature-oriented Society
Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋Renewables
with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050
Change of activity
Changeof activity
21
4
24
13

35
5
82

23
34

40

Transportationn

16

Residentiall &commerciial

1440Energy supply

632050 CO2 Em
missionprovement ofImpeneergy intensityof end‐useoImpro
ovement of Imprrovement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensityof eneergy supply
off end‐use

Energy dem
mand sector
Energgy supply sector

70
0% reduction

2000 CO2 Emisssion

1990 CO2 Emisssion

24

Indusstry

21

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Slowing of final demand by breaking away from physicalaffluence mind‐set,, Reduction of war material production,p,Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Promoting seasonal local food

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy
Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Expanding biomass energy use in home・Diffusion of solar water heatingg and photovoltaicpon the roof

Reduction ofservice demand・Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive
land use
・Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders(sidewalk, bikeway, cycle parking)

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Widespread use of hybrid vehicle
・Expanding biofuels
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle andbiomass generation
37
・Decrease of electricity demand

38

A Dozen of Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies

Press releaseon May 22, 2008

Residential/commercial sector actions
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built
environment design. Intelligent buildings.

7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design
City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (andbicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficientpublic transport

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.
Initial cost reduction by rent and release system
resulting in improved availability.
availability
Industrial sector actions
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local
foods for local cuisine
4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local andrenewable buildings materials and products.

Energy supply sector actions
8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon
electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped
CCS equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business andIndustry Businesses aiming at creating andoperating in low carbon market. Supplying low
carbon and high value-added
value added goods and services
through energy efficient production systems.
Transportation sector actions
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
Networking seamless logistics systems with
supply chain management, using bothtransportation and ICT infrastructure

9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,biomass and others.
others10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon
free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
Cross-sector actions
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information
for smart choices of low carbon goods and service byconsumers, and public acknowledgement of suchconsumers
12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource
development for building “Low-Carbon Society”39
andrecognizing extraordinary contributions.

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
gand Target

6$200/t-C scenarioUS5

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada4
UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term visionGerm anyy

2

F
FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario gguidance toward LCS is keyyJapan 2050
scenario

W orld
China

2050

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

2040

IB1

India

0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA2

2030

1

1970

CO2 peer capita emissioons (t-C//cap)

7

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
40
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Reduction Targets
g
9,000

Emissioons, mmt off CO2-e

8,000
,
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Bingaman-Specter Draft 2007

Lieberman-McCain 2007*

Udall-Petri 2006

Waxman 2007

Sanders-Boxer 2007

Kerry-Snowe 2007

2050

Feinstein August 2006

41

web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/reports.html#pubs

Gt-C

CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
2.0
1.8
1.6
14
1.4
1.2
1.0
08
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

LCS Scenario

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China),
Low-Carbon Options in China
EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

42

Japan-UK Joint Research Project
LCS through Sustainable Development
for Global Participation
The First
ThFi
workshopk h was heldh ld
in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.
Participants from 19 countries;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand,
Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK
UK, France,
France Germany
Germany,
Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada

G8 Gleneagles 2005

G8 Japan
July 2008

The Second workshop was heldin London, June13-15, 2007.
The Third workshop was heldin Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.
Developing and Diffusing Innovations
for our good life and LCS through SD

43
http://2050.nies.go.jp

P.R. SHUKLA et al., Low-carbon society scenarios for India,
CLIMATE POLICY 8 ((2008)) S156–S176

44

Transition of energy intensity:
Start of new innovation race
0.5

CO2/Capitap
4

一 人 あ た り C O 2排 出 量 （ tC / 人 ）

3.5
3

イギリス

Ger
Japan

2.5
2

2 22 C／人
2.22ｔC／人
フランス

UK

15
1.5
Fr

1

0.5

0.82ｔC／人

日本

Past

Plan

実績値
1960

1980

2000

2020

EU-15
Germany
Japan

0.4

0.3

Korea
U.S.

0.2
U.K.

0.1
Japan

?

0.5 tC/人

計画値

0
1940

Energy/GE
GDP [toe//thousan
nd$]

ドイツ

U.S.
UK
U.K.
France
Korea

2040

2060

0.0
2080
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
(Based on IEA Energy Statistics) By S.Nishioka and S.Ashina

LCS is not only to avoid dangerous
climateli t change,hbbutt tto…
• Avoid energy resource battles by using
resources in efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support
globall b l sustainablet i bl ddevelopmentlt• Build safe and sound society
y consideringgappropriate land-use and city planning
We need good systems to pledge
people’s activity for LCS
46

LCS (Low-Carbon Society)is Risk Management• We always face to risks if we are alive.
g is one of risks in our daily
y life, but• Global warming
it might become one of the huge/ biggest risks insome future…
• Short-term Sweet (Benefit) / Long-term Legality• Market Failure -> Smart Regulation• Crisis = 危(danger) + 機(chance)• 創(create)
創新新(somethingnew) = Innovation• Sense of Urgency for Good Design of our Society
Junichi Fujino, à l’Iddri - 6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris (Mo Victor Hugo)
Vendredi 12 janvier 2007, de 11 heures à 13 heures47

What gift can you provide
for our future?

Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’s
48
Piano Class on Dec 23, 2005