The 19th AIM International Workshop
Closing Speech: AIM Modeling and
its Contribution to Climate Policies
Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for EnvironmentalStudies
http://www‐iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

13‐14 December 2013

AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model): A
model for quantified LCS assessment• AIM is an integrated
assessment model to assess
mitigation options to reduce
GHG emissions andimpact/adaptation to avoid
severe climate change
damages• Developed since 1990
• First set of models focusingon Asia‐Pacific region toassess the strategies of low
carbon development planquantitatively2

Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios
Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world
2007/05

ShigaJapan
2013/10

2009/10

Kyoto
Japan
2010/10

2009/11

2009/10

Jilin
China
2011/10

ShigaJapan
2009/10,2012/02

2009/11India
2010/02,2012/09

2010/112011/03

Iskandar Putrajaya
Malaysia Malaysia
2010/10,2012/10

2011/09,2012/11

Putrajaya
Bhopal Ahmedabad
Malaysia Indonesia
Vietnam Thailand Bangladesh
India
India
2009/08,2012/11

2012/02

Iskandar Cyberjaya
Malaysia Malaysia

2013/032013/05

2013/05

2013/072013/10

Malaysia
Guangzhou
Khon
Kaen
Korea
China Cambodia Thailand
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/3

Lock-in high carbon infrastructure inhibits GHG emissions reduction

RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6
RCP8.5

Increase in radiative forcing（（W/m２）

CO2 Emissions（GtC)・ Whatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions need to be reduced close to zero in thelong run.
・ The more the delay in timing of actions, the more is the amount of reduction needed.
・ Temperature will increase as long as GHG emissions are positive.
・ GHG emissions need to be below zero to decrease temperature. It takes long time.
・ As climate impacts may be irreversible, recovery may not happen even if GHG emissions
are decreased.

CO2 emissions pathways in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) used for IPCC 5thAssessment Report (left) and their extension through 2300, Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP)(right).
（Source: M. Meinshause, 2011)

Without climate policies, the annual average temperature will
increase more than 10 degrees Celsius in some regions in aworst scenario.

RCP2.6
The global averagesurface temperature
increase 0.3 ℃ to 1.7 ℃
in 2100

RCP8.5
The global averagesurface temperature
increase 2.6 ℃ to 4.8 ℃
in 2100 and about 8 ℃
by 2300.

Average surface temperature change (average between 2081 and 2100)
compared to the average temperature between 1986 and 2005.
Source: Fig. SPM.7 in Summary for Policy Makers, AR5, IPCC AR5

UnconventionalGas~900-2900 PgC

N. Gas~190–240
PgC

Cumulative
Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton~300 PgC

Unconv. Oil~300-400
PgC

Biomass~430-460
PgC

Carbon Storage Potential~400-1500 PgC

Gas Hydrates~28,000PgC
Coal~ 10,000 PgC

Historcial
Emissions~500 PgC

PreidustrialAtmosphere~530 PgC

Oil~180–280
PgC

Present
Atmosphere~800 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012 (Nakicenovic, IIASA)
Nakicenovic

2013 #614

Additional annual investment to meet 2℃ target(base year – 2050)
Investment can be recovered by energy saving
trillion US$/year
3
Difference comes from the assumption ontechnologies, energy service demands, energy
prices, and so on.

2

Additional
investment

1

Energy savings
0‐1
GEA: The approximately US$ 1.4 trillion
energy cost savings per year until 2050 inavoided heating and cooling energy costs.
Their estimated investment cost is 0.38
trillion $ per year.

‐2‐3*a scenario with nuclear and CCS** a scenario without nuclear and CCS

about 0.6% to 3% of current global GDPAdditional investment to meet ２℃ target
trillion $/year

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.00.0AIM
Scenario A*

AIMScenario B * *IEA_ETP2012

Additional investment per year by periods*a scenario with nuclear and CCS** a scenario without nuclear and CCS

Additional Annual Investment to meet 2℃ target
billion US$/year

billion US$/year

700700600600500

500400400300300200200100

10000

Scenario A (with nuclear andCCS)

2005‐2030
2030‐2050

Scenario B (without nuclearand CCS)
Source: Akashi

Reduction potential v.s. additional investment costs
in 2030 in high efficient case with short payback period in Japan
Additional investment costs (yen/tCO2)
Renewables(10 years) (*1)

Decrease of illuminance demandHigh efficient truck
High efficient air conditioner (commercial)
Improvement of insulation (commercial)
PV (residential)
Technology improvement of energy intensive industry
GeothermalHigh efficient motor
Common technologies in industry
Energy efficient vehicle
PV (non residential)
Biomass/waste power generation
Wind power generation
High efficient appliance
BEMS
Small hydroTransport(5 years) (*1)
Commercial(3 years) (*1)
Residential(3years)
Industry(3/10 years)(payback period)*1: industrial plants,buildings(10 years)

Improvement of insulation (residential)
High efficient hot water supply (residential)
High efficient air conditioner (residential)
High efficient lighting (residential)
High efficient lighting (commercial)
HEMS
High efficient hot water supply (commercial)

Reduction potential (thousand ton CO2)

Reduction potential v.s. additional investment costs
in 2030 in high efficient case with long payback period in Japan
Additional investment costs (yen/tCO2)
Decrease of illuminance demandHigh efficient truck
Common technologies in industry
High efficient air conditioner (commercial)
High efficient applianceHigh efficient motor
Energy efficient vehicle
HEMS
Improvement of insulation (commercial)
PV (residential)
BEBS
High efficient hot water supply (Commercial)
High efficient lighting (Residential)
High efficient lighting (commercial)

Renewables(12 years)
Transport(8 years)Commercial(8 years) (*2)
Residential(8years) (*3)

Industry(12‐15 years)
GeothermalTechnology improvement of energy intensive industry(payback period)
PV (non residential)*2: residential buildings(17 years)*3: commercial buildings(15 years)
Improvement of insulation (residential)
High efficient hot water supply (residential)
High efficient air conditioner (residential)
Biomass/waste power generation
Small hydroWind power generation

Reduction potential (thousand ton CO2)

Projects related AIM activities
Long‐term Vision

Policy Implementation

Scale

GlobalCountryLocal

EMF30 (bioenergy/land use & non‐Kyoto Gases/air pollution)
ADVANCE (Improved analysis of costs and impacts of mitigation policies)
AgMIP (Crop and economic modeling for food security)
COBHAM (Consumer behavior, energy and climate change)
IMPRESSIONS (High end impact & adaptation scenario)
SSP (Socio‐economic pathways with mitigation and adaptation)
IAMC (Building a community of practice)
ERTDF‐S10 (Global climate change risk)
ERTDF‐S12 (Long‐lived GHGs and Short‐lived climate pollutants)
Low Carbon Asia (Scenarios with Action Plans)
SATREPS, JCM, ・・・
National & Local mitigation analysis
DDPP(Post‐2015/National deep decarbonization pathways to 2050)
ERTDF‐S8 (Impact & Adaptation in Japan)
Fukushima (Reconstruction‐based town planning with social innovation)
Climate Change Research Program at NIES

2020
Networking2050

Target Year2100

LCS‐RNet (International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies)
LoCARNet (Low Carbon Asia Research Network)

Research topics on climate change related AIM activities••••

Coupling models
Model validation and quality assurance
Uncertainty quantification
Regional , country and local action plants/ implementation
Long‐term VisionPolicy Implementation(Future Earth)(Planetary Boundaries)

Scale

GlobalCountry
Local

Cancun Agreements
GHG emissions half by 2050
EnergyAgriculture

Technologies

2 oC Target

Land Use

LifestyleSocial Change

National GHG reduction potential
Co‐Benefits(Reduction of air pollution, water pollution, etc.）
LCS action plan in local level
2020

2050

Target Year2100

How can we make a transition to a low carbon society?

*The low-carbon Asia research Project is supported by the Environmental
Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6)

Ten Actions towards Low Carbon Asia are proposed
Action 1 Urban Transport
Structured Compact City

Action 6 Energy System
Low carbon energy system withlocal resources

Mainstreaming trains andwater transportation

Action 7 Agriculture & Livestock
Spread of high yields and low
emission agriculturaltechnologies

Action 3 Resources & Materials

Action 8

Smart material use that realizes
the full potential of resources

Sustainable forest
management

Action 4 Buildings
Smart buildings thatutilize natural systems

Technology & FinanceAction 9
Technology and finance tofacilitate achievement of LCS

Action 5 Biomass
Local production and local
consumption of biomass

Action 10 GovernanceTransparent and Fair
Governance that Supports LCS
Asia

Action 2 Interregional Transport

Forest & Landuse

Change in GHG emissions with 10 actions in Asia

•The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference
scenario.
It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 68% by introducing
ten actions and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other thanagriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference
scenario in 2050.
Reductions byGHG emissions (GtCO2e/year)•

Action1: Urban Transport
Action2: Interregional Transport
Action3: Resources & Materials
Action4: Buildings
Action5: Biomass
Action6: Energy System
Action7: Agriculture and Livestock
Action8: Forest & Landuse
Others (CH4 and N2O emissions fromother than agriculture and livestock

GHG Emissions inAsia (LCS)
the world (LCS)
the world (Reference)Action 5: Local Production and Local Consumptionof Biomass
 Sustainable co-production of biomass energy and food Low carbon energy systems using local biomass resources in ruralareas Improvement of living environments with intensive biomass utilization

Primary energy supply: Reference scenario(left) and LCS scenario (right)

Land area for biomass production: Reference scenario (left) and LCS scenario (right)

Key Messages from Low Carbon Asia Project
Achieving 2oC target is feasible
If all the actions proposed here are applied appropriately, 68% of the emissions in theReference scenario can be reduced in Asia in 2050. This is in line with a global pathway
with the 2oC target.

Early actions are needed
Whatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions should be reduced to zero in the longrun to keep the climate at the corresponding level. More the actions are delayed,larger the reduction rates become and higher the stabilization level will be.
GHG emissions need to be below zero to lower temperature. To realize negativeemissions is very tough.
There is a danger that socio-ecosystem will not berecovered even if GHG concentrations are returnedto the lower level.

Leapfrogging development in Asia leads toa Low Carbon Society
Transition to low carbon emissions and low‐resource
consumption societies, while simultaneously improving
the economic standards of living is vital for sustainable
development. Asia has many opportunities to realize anLCS by leapfrogging.Accelerating the transition
towards low carbon societies-from theory to reality Low Carbon Society Research Network (LCS-RNet)
established in 2009 under G8 scheme‐ Scientific Research Contributing to Low
Carbon Policy‐making Process ‐The LCS‐RNet 5th Annual Meeting in Yokohama

Member of Steering Committee, Advisor and Secretary General

NRTEE

19

Key Issues discussed at 5th Annual
Meeting of LCS-RNet
1.

2.

3.

4.
5.

Vision: A global vision and a set of coordinated policies andmeasures are necessary to direct investment towards lowcarbon project/programmes at the global level.
Governance: Cooperation is essential if social andenvironmental goals are to be achieved; while competition will
help to achieve goals cost-effectively.
Economy: Delays in the transition will cause lock-in of theeconomy into less cost-effective alternatives. Transitioning to a
low carbon society can stimulate the economy and create newindustries.
Scale: Local (e.g. City) level actions can accelerate thetransition to low carbon societies at a global scale.
Social: The transition to a low carbon society will imply
fundamental changes in the underlying culture, structure andbehaviour of societies.

LoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia Research Network
An open network of researchers, research organisations, as well as like‐minded
relevant stakeholders that facilitates the formulation and implementation ofscience‐based policies for low‐carbon development in Asia.
Lessons learnt from activities and outcomes from dialogues
between Researchers and Policy‐makers in Asia

Synthesis Reports: http://lcs‐rnet.org/publications

BunditJiang
RizaldiBOER LIMMEECHOKCHAI KEJUN
ThailandChina
Indonesia

Ho Chin Sirintornthep Mikiko
SIONG TOWPRAYOON KainumaJapan
Thailand
Malaysia

Members of Steering CommitteeLoCARNet 2nd Annual Meeting in Yokohama, July 2013

HakMAO
CambodiaP.R.
SHUKLAIndia

ShuzoNISHIOKAJapan

SecretaryGeneral

Seven priority topics were discussed: “need for capacity‐development towards a year 2020 framework”;“comparison of reduction potential of Asian countries towards achieving two degrees target”; “role of cities
as pioneers for low carbon societies”; “urgent issues for research common to the Asian region”; “greengrowth best practices”; “low carbon technologies required in Asia”; “Asian issues: emissions reduction inthe agriculture, forestry and land‐use sectors”.

Challenges toward low-carbon societies
PresentSituation

ResearchTopics

TargetProblems in Asia
Economic Development, Energy, Poverty,Elements
Environment, etc.
considered inExamples of issues to be tackled:
scenarios andEconomic: Leap-frog development to LCS
roadmaps
Energy: Co-production of biomass energy
Energy supply Humanand foodand enduse
CapitalMaterial: Social infrastructure andtechnology
dematerialization
Social Capital,
Lifestyle: Local characteristics in Asia
Tradition, rule
Institution: Policy plans to remove barriers
Transportation: Low carbon transportation
SocialInfrastructure Institutions•Development of qualitative scenarios•Development of action plans andDomestic
Otherroadmaps
Environmental•Capacity building
Problems International•Analysis of Asian perspectives
TradesRealization of Low Carbon
Society with high quality of live

International Policy

Challenges to LCS scenario implementation andexpansion of research collaboration•Strengthening the collaboration with researches in Asian countries
such as China, India, Indonesia and Thailand• Research Projects– NIES Climate Change Research Program– Environment Research and Technology
Development Fund (ERTDF) of theMinistry of the Environment, Japan (S-6,S-7, S-8, S-10, S-12)– SATREPS project: Collaboration with
University of Technology, Malaysia andIskandar development agency– JCM project– Fukushima Project• Networks– International Research Network for Low
Carbon. Societies (LCS-RNet)– Low Carbon Asia Research Network(LoCARNet)

The 18th AIM International
Workshop, December 2012

Thank you for your attention
http://2050.nies.go.jp/