Climate Policy Modeling:Some Insights for India
Presentation byP.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

COP 8 Side-event (October 25 - 15:00 to 17:00 hours)

Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling of Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

IIM Ahmedabad

Integrated Framework for Climate Change

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AIM Model System
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy useand emissions atcountry and local level

A set of ecosystemmodels, including avegetation dynamics
model, a waterresource model, anagricultural
productivity modeland a health impact
model

AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology& land use model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
Environburden
mentalEnvironmental
BurdenIndustry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleA environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine

Land use

Water resource
Crop
Productivity

Socio-economic
indicator

Impact on food demandAdaptation strategy

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental
trend

Korea
India
Japan

IIM Ahmedabad

Model System for India’s Emissions Policy Analysis

ModelsTop-down Models

Bottom-up Models

Local Models•AIM/Material
•SGM
•GEMA
•ERB
•AIM/Trend•ANSWER – MARKAL•Stochastic MARKAL•Demand Projection•AIM/End-use•Power Sector LP•AIM/Emissions•GIS•Inventory Assessment•Health Impact
Assessment Model

IIM AhmedabadSoft-linked Models Framework
Top - Down

Models

AIM/Material
Consolidation

GEMAProductivity

SGM
GlobalEnergyPricesERB

AIM/TrendRegional
projections

Bottom- Up Models

PowerSector LP
Prices,GDP
ANSWER
MARKALEnd -use
DemandDemandProjection
SectorDemandAIM/E

Technology Share

EnergyBalances

Stochastic
MARKAL

Emissions

Scenarios

Technology
Specifi cations

Local

AIM/Localnd - use

ModelsLocal Emissions
Future Projections
GIS Model
Invent o ry
Assessment

HealthImpact
A ssessment
Model

IIM AhmedabadInsights from
Integrated Climate
Change Assessment

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Few Key Questions for Emissions Policies• What is the cost-effective emissions pathways to achieve aspecific “GHG concentration stabilization” level?
• What will be the future trends of emissions and intensities?
• How the local and GHG emissions control policies linked?
• What is mitigation supply curve for India?
• How can regional cooperation help in climate change issues?
• What would be the implications of stabilization regime, e.g.
550 ppmv, on India’s energy system during the century• Is it worth to fund supply-side push of clean technologies likesolar PV for GHG mitigation?
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The Framework Convention On Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Objective:...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with theclimate system. (p.5)

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Emissions and Concentrations
16800

WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350

IS92a
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350

1412750
700

IS92a

650

10ppmv

6550
500

4450

2

2290

2265

2240

2215

2190

2165

2140

2115

2090

2065

2040

2015

2290

2265

2240

2215

2190

2165

2140

2115

2090

300
2065-22040

350

2015

01990

4001990PgC/yr

600
8

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Energy and Carbon Emissions for India:
AIM/ENDUSE Model
Energy Consumption

Carbon Emissions
800

50
Renewables
NuclearBiomass

30

HydroGas

20

Oil

600

400

200

100
1995

Carbon (MT)Exa Joules

40

Coal

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

0
1995

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP(History and Projections for Reference Scenario)

20
18
EnergyCarbonElectricity

GDP

16
14
12
10
Past Trends
86
4

Future Projections

20
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

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GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon(Reference Scenario)

1.8
1.6
1.4

Electricity

1.2

CarbonEnergy10.8
0.6
Past Trends

Future Projections

0.4
0.201975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

SO2 Emission
AIM/Emission Model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

RecycleEnvironment FundWastes

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-formmodel to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

2000

2030

Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15

Million Tons
< 0.010.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060> 0.060< 0.20

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GHG versus Local Emissions in India
Carbon Emissions

SO2 Emissions

800

7Million Tonnes

Carbon (MT)

6600

400

54
32200

1001995

2005

2015
Year

2025

2035

1995

2005

2015
Year20252035

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Carbon Mitigation Supply Curve(2005-2035)
60

6 billion tons ofmitigation below$25/ ton of carbon

Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)

50
40
30
20
100

123

4567

Carbon abatement (billion ton)
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Carbon Mitigation(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)(in Million Ton)

Scenario

Kyoto Period Medium Term
2000-2012
2000-2030

Long Term
2000-2100

750 ppmv

138 (3%)743 (5%)11334 (11%)

650 ppmv

301 (7%)1555 (11%)

23666 (23%)

550 ppmv

449 (10%)2503 (17%)

33284 (32%)

IIM AhmedabadIndian Energy System Transformation
Under 550 ppmv Stabilization
Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case
CarbonCapture
EnergyEfficiency
WindSolar
Biomass
Hydro
NuclearGas
OilIndia550ppmvemission

140120

Exajoules

100
80
60
40

2500

2000

1500

MTC

Base Case Energy System

1000

20550 ppmv

50001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

Biomass

Hydro

Solar

2080

2095

0Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

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Technological Change in India toStabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
WindSolar
Biomass
Hydro
NuclearGasOil
India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV

2500
2000

2000
1600

1500
1200
1000
80050040001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

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Regional Energy Market Development

IIM AhmedabadImpact of Regional Energy MarketDevelopments in South-Asia
Emissions Reduction (2015)
10.5
Reduction (%)

9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
CarbonYearSOX

Grid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation
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Advanced Technology: Competitive Paradox
Solar PV Penetration

Carbon Mitigation

4030%

3525%
3020%

252015%

Hi-Solar
1510%
10
Med-Solar + $25 Tax5$25 Tax

5%Base019900%
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

High Solar$25 Tax

Med Sol+ $25 Tax

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Conclusions•••

There is no “silver bullet” for mitigation or adaptation
Local and global emissions mitigation policies are disjointed
Regional cooperation can reduce the climate mitigation and impacts
costs significantly• Strong mitigation regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, can alter the regional energy
system significantly• Global cost-effectiveness requires substantial mitigation (andadaptation) in developing countries• Supply-push of few clean technologies is inadequate for mitigation• Climate Change impacts is complicated due to “winners and losers”
rather than absolute impacts burden• Integrated policy assessment is vital for linking climate change andsustainable development

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