How to manage the high emission industries and promotethe carbon peak in Guangdong
1112
PengWang ,Songyan Ren , Daiqing Zhao ,Toshihiko Masui

1Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
2National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
28th AIM International Workshop –September 3-4, 2022
•Scenarios

Introduction

Due the rise of energy prices and the impact of COVID-19, energy
shortage has led to the unsafe power supply.
• High emission industries which account for more than 58% of the carbonemissions of Guangdong Province have played an important role inachieving the carbon peak goal, alleviating social energy shortage andpromoting economic growth.
• Controlling high emissions industries will help to adjust the industrial
structure and increase renewable energy investment.

Methods

Scenario description
1. Adopt more coal and gas power to Ensure the safety of power
supply, and meet the new power consumption demand;
Energy Security
2.Adopt moderate carbon restrictions on traditional high carbon
Scenario (ES)emission sectors to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of carbon
emissions in the whole society by 2029.
Restrict High 1.On the premise of ensuring power supply, vigorously develop
Carbon Emission renewable energy to replace coal and gas power.
Sector Scenario 2.Adopt strict carbon restrictions on traditional high carbon emission(RHS)
sectors, reaching the carbon peak in 2027.

Features of a two-region CGE model for ICEEH-GD• General equilibrium model representing 33 economic sectors, tworegions: The Guangdong Province and Rest of China.
• Providing the trajectory of economic development, population ,energy demand and supply structure, investment, carbon emissions.
• Assessing the economic impacts of restrictions on the highemissions industries.

Results
1. As shown in Fig. 1, the high emission industries show different structural
proportions, which are driven by different development scenarios. Power
sector accounts for the highest proportion of carbon emissions, followed bycement, and the carbon peak will be achieved by 2030 compared with ES.

1. On the premise of ensuring power supply, vigorously develop
Comprehensive
renewable energy to replace coal and gas power.
Policy scenario
2.Adopt stricter carbon emission limits for the whole society,(CP)reaching the carbon peak in 2025.
3. Adopt the carbon Emission trading market for the whole society,2. In the RHS scenario, the sectors with the largest reduction in carbon
emissions will be the power, paper industry, textiles, cement, steel andceramics in Fig. 2.
3. In the CP scenario, the transportation and service industries will
participate in carbon, which reducing the carbon cost of the wholesociety by more than 48% in Fig. 3.
24000

ESRHS

CP

22000

201020000

018000（billion yuan）

GDP1600014000-20

12000-30

10000

GDP change-10-408000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

Fig.1 High emission Industries Carbon Emission Fig.2 Sector emission reduction for three scenario

Fig.5 Energy structure for three scenario-50

Fig.6 GDP change for policy scenario

4. In the RHS scenario, investment will be more shifted to cement,electricity, ceramics, steel, paper and other sectors with high emissions
per unit of added value, while the in-vestment in chemical industry,
construction industry and agriculture will be reduced in Fig.4.
5. By 2035, the proportion of coal consumption will decrease from 32%
in ES scenario to 29% and 28% respectively, and the proportion ofpower consumption will increase from 25% to 27% in Fig 5.
6.By 2030, the GDP of the whole society will increased to 17900 billion
yuan, and by 2035, it will increased to 22600 billion yuan in Fig. 6.
Fig.3 Carbon price for three scenario

Conclusion

Fig.4 Investment transfer for policy scenario

1. Through the restriction on high carbon emission sectors, the industrial structure has been adjusted. Although there is a certain loss in GDP from 2028 to2034, the GDP of the whole society will increase by 8 billion yuan compared with the ES scenario by 2035.
2. Restricting high emission industries, the investment will flow from chemical industry and other industries to power, cement, steel industries, which will
be used for the replacement of energy consumption with capital, so as to reduce carbon emissions and the cost of carbon emission.
3. Although the carbon emission per unit value added of the power sector is relatively high, it involves energy security. Therefore, the green transformationof the power sector should be carried out on the premise of meeting energy security.
4. Development of renewable energy can promote the increase of investment in the power sector, promote cleaner energy supply, attracting more investment
from high emission industry.