LCS Scenarios for Brazil
In October 2010 the Brazilian Government presented the results of the second Brazilian GHG emissions
inventory for the period from 1990 to 2005. Few months after, during COP16, the government published theFederal Decree 7,390 which regulates the Law 12,187 regarding the final figures of the voluntary goals for theamount of avoided GHG emissions in 2020.
The Brazilian GDP was approximately US$ 1,576.9 billion in 2009. Its GDP per capita was about US$ 8,234.
Brazil’s population was over 191 million inhabitants. The average population growth for the period 2000‐2009
was of 1.31%. Concerning the energy sector, 47% of all energy consumed came from renewable sources. Sugar
cane products represented the second major source of primary energy (18%), only behind oil and its byproducts(38%). Hydropower was the third more important source, accounting for 15% of all energy consumed. In thatsame year, hydropower accounted for more than 76% of all electricity generated. Thermal sources of electricity
accounted only with 12% of the total. In 2010, the carbon content of the electricity in Brazil was only 0.0511 ton
CO2/MWh.
Brazil’s GHG emissions reached 2,192 MtCO2eq in 2005, an increase of 58% compared to 1990. Table 1
summarizes the results for the years 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2005.

Emissions (MtCO2 eq)
Land use change
Agriculture/Husbandry
Energy
IPPU
Waste
TOTAL

Table 1 – GHG EMISSIONS IN BRAZIL, 1990 ‐ 2005
1990 1994 2000 2005 Var % 90/05 Share (%) 1990
813883 1328 1329
63%
58.61%
304
329
348
415
36%
21.92%
191217301
329
72%
13.77%
5157
71
7853%
3.68%
2832394146%
2.02%1387 1518 2087 2192
58%
100 %Share (%) 2005
60.63%18.93%
15.01%
3.56%
1.87%
100 %

Source: MCT, 2010

The Decree no 7,390 is a step towards detailing the voluntary mitigation goals established by the government in
Law no 12,187, but still leaves a lot of flexibility to the actual way of achieving these goals. The decree does notestablish a full mitigation scenario with voluntary goals for each main source of emissions .
Only the energy sector has already established the amount of avoided GHG emissions in 2020, because thegovernment considers the current 10‐year energy plan as a mitigation scenario, as it includes a number ofefforts to increase the role of renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency in the energy policy. For the othersectors, the decree refers to four other sectoral mitigation plans already elaborated:- Plan of Action for Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm): Reduction in 80% of theannual deforestation surface in the Amazon, compared to the historical average in the period 1996‐2005;- Plan of Action for Prevention and Control of Deforestation and Fires in the Savannahs (PPCerrado): Reductionin 40% of the annual deforestation surface in the savannahs, compared to the historical average in the period
1999‐2008;

- Plan for Consolidation of a Low Carbon Emission Economy in Agriculture: ;- Plan of Emission Reduction in the Steel sector: increase steel manufacturing using charcoal from planted
forests and improve the efficiency of charcoal kilns.
Table 2 – BRAZIL’S GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION ACTIONS IN 2020
Emissions (MtCO2eq)

1990

2005

Var. 90‐05

BAU2020

Var. 05‐20

LUC

813

1,329

63%

1,404

5.6%

Amazon

948

Savannahs

323

Others133

Agriculture/Husbandry

304

415

36%

730

76%

Energy19132972%

868

164%

IP PU/Waste

7911951%

234

96%

TOTAL

1,387

2,192

58%

3,236

47%

Avoided Emissions

234

1,168‐1,259oSource: MCT, 2010; Federal Decree n 7390, 2010

Total emissions in 2020: from 47.6% growth in BAU to 5.6‐8.9% decrease compared to 2005; from 133% to 44‐
50% increase compared with 1990. The Decree foresees the publication of annual estimates of emissions of GHG
in Brazil for the purpose of monitoring compliance with the objectives of action plans for prevention and controlof deforestation in the biomes and sectoral plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, starting in2012.
Deadline of 15 December 2011 for the elaboration of additional sectoral mitigation plans for those sectors
included in the 2009 law (e.g. Public urban transportation, Interstate transport of cargo and passengers,
Chemical industry, Pulp and paper industry, Mining, etc.). These plans must include: emission reductions in 2020,
with milestones for every three‐year period; mitigation actions to be implemented; establishment of indicatorsfor monitoring of performance and assessment of effectiveness; proposal of tools and incentives to be adopted
in the implementation of the plans; sectoral studies of cost estimates and implications for competitiveness.
Brazil’s CO2 emission per capita is low. Even in the BAU scenario it is projected to continue low. Besides that,after a peak observed in 2004, deforestation levels are consistently reducing over the last 5 years. However, theshare of fossil fuels in the energy matrix is growing. Thus, emissions due to the use of fossil fuels in the country
will be 75% higher in the mitigation scenario compared to 2005 emissions. It will be required theimplementation of public policy tools capable of stimulating the substitution of fossil fuels for the use ofrenewable energy sources.