Introduction of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Yasuaki Hijioka（hijioka@nies.go.jp）
National Institute for Environmental Studies
15th AIM International Workshop 2010 @ NIES

Presentation Outline
1.

Outline of AIM/Impact[Policy]

2.

Application of AIM/Impact[Policy]•The Project for Comprehensive Projectionof Climate Change Impacts (S‐4 project)•The Comprehensive Research Project of
Climate Change Impact Assessment andAdaptation Strategies (S‐8 project)

2AIM/Impact[Policy]z Development of integrated assessment model,

AIM/Impact[Policy], for comprehensive analysis
and assessment of GHG stabilization
concentration targets and emission pathways forrealizing them, as well as impacts and risks
under such targets
 Assist policymakers’decision in action programs

to arrest global warming

3

GHG Con. HighGHG Con.

Integrated
assessment model,
AIM/Impact[Policy]

GHG Con. Low¾ Projection of future
PresentFutureTemp. inc. High

Temp. inc. Low

Present

Effort for GHG
reduction small

CC impacts

GHG emissions andclimate change
impacts understabilization
scenarios

GHG emissionszTemp. increase

Development of Integrated
Assessment model

Impact Large

Effort for GHG
reduction Large

PresentFuture

FuturePresentImpact small

Future4Overview ofAIM/Impact[Policy]
GHG Emissions

Integratedassessment(Emission/Climate/Impacts)

Energy‐economic model
Global GHG emission path

Simple climate model

Impact/Adaptation
Patternscaling
module
GCM results

GMTI

National/ Sector‐wise impacts
ClimateScenarioby country

Potential
impactestimation
moduleClimate change Impact Adaptation
Response Function

Change of potential crop
productivity (rice)
Precipitation 50%

Temperature+0ºC

Temperature+3ºC

Temperature+6ºC

Temperature+9ºC02

Precipitation 100%

3456 (t/ha)

Precipitation 200%

150140130120110100908070605040
2d 1d 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Precipitation change

Example of Impact Response Function

Temperature change
0‐2525‐5050‐7575‐100100‐12578105105100100

Potential rice productivity

95902ºC85809590

BaU

8580

BCCRbcm2‐PCM_B1
CCCmat63‐PCMB1
CGCM‐PCMA1B
CSIRO_A2
ECHAM‐PCM_A1B
FGOALS‐PCM_B1
GFDLcm21‐PCM_A2
HADCM3_A2
IPSLcm4‐PCM_A1B
MIROCm‐PCM_A2
NCARpcm1‐PCM_A2

2100

2080

2060

2000

2100

2080

2040

2020

20002060

Year

Year
BCCRbcm2‐PCM_A2CCCmat63‐PCMA1B
CCSR_B2
CSIRO_A1
ECHAM4‐PCM_A1B
FGOALS‐PCM_A1B
GFDLcm21‐PCM_A1B
GISSer‐PCM_B1
INMCM3‐PCM_B1
MIROCm‐PCM_A1B
NCARpcm1‐PCM_A1B
Ave.

2040

75752020

Potential rice productivity

Example of uncertainty analysis

CCCm_A2CCSR_A1
CGCM‐PCMA2CSIRO_B1
ECHAM‐PCM_A2
GFDL_A2
GFDLcm21‐PCM_B1
HADCM3_A2b
IPSLcm4‐PCM_A2
MIROCm‐PCM_B1
UKMOhadcm‐PCM_A1B

CCCm_B2
CCSR_A1T
CGCM‐PCMB1CSIRO_B2
ECHAM‐PCM_B1
GFDL_B2
GISSaom‐PCM_A1B
HADCM3_A2c
IPSLcm4‐PCM_B1
MIROCold_A1B
UKMOhadcm‐PCM_A2Year

CCCma‐PCMA1B
CCSR_A2
CNRMcm3‐PCMA1B
CSIROmk3‐PCMA1B
ECHO‐PCM_A1B
GFDLcm20‐PCM_A1B
GISSaom‐PCM_B1
HADCM3_B2
MIROC_A1B
NCARccsm3‐PCM_A1B
UKMOhadcm‐PCM_B1

CCCma‐PCMA2
CCSR_AF
CNRMcm3‐PCMA2CSIROmk3‐PCMA2ECHO‐PCM_A2
GFDLcm20‐PCM_A2
GISSeh‐PCM_A1B
INMCM3‐PCM_A1B
MIROCh‐PCM_A1B
NCARccsm3‐PCM_A2
UKMOhadgem1‐PCM_A1B

CCCma‐PCMB1
CCSR_B1CNRMcm3‐PCMB1CSIROmk3‐PCMB1ECHO‐PCM_B1
GFDLcm20‐PCM_B1
GISSer‐PCM_A2
INMCM3‐PCM_A2
MIROCh‐PCM_B1
NCARccsm3‐PCM_B1
UKMOhadgem1‐PCM_A29

The Project for Comprehensive Projectionof Climate Change Impacts (S‐4)
zzzz

Global Environment Research Fund S‐4 by Ministry ofthe Environment
Targeted area: Asian region including Japan
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture,
coastal zones, human healthResearch period:¾zzz

Period I (2005‐2007) + Period II (2008‐2009)

Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Research budget: around 0.2 billion yen per year
Number of sub‐themes: Seven¾¾

Number of participating research institutions: 14 (2008)
Number of participating researchers: 42 (2007)10

Objectives of the research projectz

To obtain quantitative knowledge on climatechange impacts in key fields in the Asian region
including Japan, targeting the period up to theend of the present century while focusing on
the period up to around 2050.
¾ Water resources, Forests, Agriculture, Coastal zones,and Human healthz

11To comprehensively grasp the impacts on
Japan and elucidate the relationships with thelevel of global warming.
11S‐4 research method
Risk Map

Improvement ofImpact Projection

Without adaptation measures

Adaptation
measures

Water HealthWith adaptation measures

Agri.

Forests Coasts

Common scenario

Economic assessment
Population
scenario

Integrated
assessment model
GHG emissions

GHG concentrations

Proposal of economic
assessment method
Development of monetaryassessment basic unit
Temperature changes
5.0

20

1100

15

900

10700

5500

1.0

0

300

0.0

4.0
3.0

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

1990
2000
20102020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

2.0

0-5
-10-15-20-25-30

Impacts

2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Climatescenario

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Development ofImpact Functions

IntegratedAssessment

Key research products
1.

The development of quantitative assessment
methods by field and projection of the impacts onwhole Japan¾

2.

Risk maps (nationwide as well as regional assessments)
9

Full report: 94 pages, Brief summary: 15 pages

9Press Release: 29th May, 2008, Results for the first three years

Impact assessments by stabilization level ofatmospheric GHG concentration using an integrated
assessment model¾Assessments of damage costs as well as physical impacts
99

Full report: 38 pages, Brief summary: 26 pages
Press Release: 29th May, 200913

Reported risk maps
http://www‐cger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj‐impact‐s4report.html

１年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率（人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの）
01

10 100 500

14Outline of Stabilization ScenarioszzIncluding GHGs and cooling effects of aerosol
Overshooting of GHG concentrations occurs (450s, 550s)¾ 450s: 450 ppm GHG concentration (CO2 equivalentconcentration) stabilization scenario
9 Equilibrium temperature increase of approx. 2.1ºC (compared withpre industrial period)¾ 550s: 550 ppm GHG concentration (CO2 equivalentconcentration) stabilization scenario
9 Equilibrium temperature increase of approx. 2.9ºC (compared withpre industrial period; approx. 2.7ºC in 2100 in the present analysis)¾ BaU (Business as Usual scenario)
9 Temperature increase of approx. 3.8ºC in 2100 (compared with preindustrial period)
9 Corresponding to IPCC SRES B215

8 indicators for impact assessmentzzzzzzzz

Flooded area and cost of damage due to floods
Probability of slope failure and cost of damage due tolandslide disasters
Impacts on suitable habitats for Fagus crenata(Japanese beech) forests and cost of damage
Expansion of areas at risk of pine wilt
Impacts on rice yield
Expansion of area of sand beach loss and cost ofdamage
Expansion of area of storm‐surge flooding, affected
populations, and cost of damage
Heat stress mortality risk and cost of damage

16

Outline of Integrated Assessmentz

Equilibrium climate sensitivity: 3ºCz

The carbon feedback effect is not taken intoconsiderationz

GCM used for preparation of climate scenarios(pattern scaling) by region from global mean
temperature changes: MIROC3.2‐hiresz

The impacts of global warming are the increment
when 1981‐2000 (or 1990) is taken the base period oryearzWithout considering adaptation to climate change
17

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2050

Year

3.5
Sea Level rise (m, 1990=0)

0.25

When converting in comparison with prior to Yearthe industrial revolution: +0.5°C

0.00

450S

1990

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

0.0

0.05

550S

BaU

2050

0.5

2040

1.00.10

2030

1.5

0.15

2020

2.00.20

2010

2.5

2000

3.0

1990

Global mean temperature increase(℃，1990=0)

Year

2040

300
2030

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

‐52020

0500

2010

5700

2000

10900

1990

15

GHG concentrasion (ppm‐CO2eq)

20

1990

Kyoto‐gas emissions (GtCeq/yr)

Global GHG Emissions (Six Types of GHGs Established under the KyotoProtocol), GHG Concentration, Global Mean TemperatureIncrease, and Sea Level Rise by Scenario

Year18

Impacts of Floods
1.2¾ Heavy rain (HR) occurring

1.1

0.4

0.2

0.0

8.7
8

7.6
6.4

642

Period

2090s

2080s

2070s

2060s

2040s
2050s

2030s

02020sProtection level remains
unchanged in thefuture.
NO depreciation ofasset values due todamage

0.62090s

0.82030s
2040s
2050s

years in every prefecture¾ HR occurring once every
150 years in the threemajor metropolitan areas

1.02020s¾ HR occurring once every 50

Flood area（1000km2）

Future protection level1.02080s

once every 50 years.
z

101.2
Flood damage cost potential (trillion yen/year)

Present protection level

2060s
2070s

z

Period

450S

550S

BaU

19

60

‐36‐39‐505040‐6830

Cost of damage due to decrease in suitable habitats for F.
crenata forests (100 million yen/year)

‐35

2500

2324

2000

1381

1811

1273

1325

1500

1000

1034
500

2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

2090s

02080s702070s

Application of CVM(contingent valuationmethod).
Smoothly migration
No land use change
Non‐market value‐282050s
2060s

z802040s

Changes in cumulative
temperature (warmth index),¾ Changes in daily minimum
temperature of the coldestmonth,¾ Changes in winterprecipitation (December‐March),¾ Changes in summer
precipitation (May‐September)¾

902030s

Climate variables

2020s

z

Suitable habitats for F. crenata forests (%, 1990 = 100%)

Impacts on Forests

PeriodPeriod

450S

550S

BaU

20

Impacts on Agriculture (Rice Yield)z

Climatic variables
Changes in accumulated insolation inthe warm season (May‐October)¾ Mean temperature change in summer(July, August)¾ Mean temperature change in thewarm season excluding summer(May, June, September, October)¾ CO2 concentration

5.2¾

Rice yield（kg/ha）

5.0Important factors to determine therice yield
4.9

2090s

2080s

2070s

2060s

2050s

2040s

4.82030s• Positive effect due to the reduction incold weather damage in currently
cool regions• Positive effect due to the CO2fertilization• Negative effect due to high‐temperature‐induced sterility incurrently warm regions

2020s



5.1

Period450S550S

BaU21被害額（ 兆円/年）

1 88( 2 )Flood Area
Sandy Beach Loss
Loss of Suitable Habitats for F. crenata Forests
Slope Collapse
Heat Stress Morta;ity Risk
Storm‐Surge Flooding (Western Japan)

6

4
4
4

2
2
200
02090s82080s10142070s

550s

2060s

162050s

162040s16

2 0 9 0 s

182030s

12Damage Cost(Trillion Yen/Year)

182020s

2090s

18

2 0 8 0 s

2 0 7 0 s

2080s

2070s

2060s

2050s

62 0 6 0 s

8142040s

102030s

2020s

12

Damage Cost(Trillion Yen/Year)450s

2 0 5 0 s

2 0 4 0 s

2090s

2080s

2070s

2060s

2050s

2040s

2030s

142 0 3 0 s

2 0 2 0 s

2020s

Damage Cost(Trillion Yen/Year)

Damage Costs by Scenarios
BaU

12108622

Key Findings of Second Reportz In Japan as well, even greater impacts of global

warming are expected in the future in a broad
range of fields related to people’s lives.
z Even when the GHG concentration is stabilized at

low level (ex. 450 ppm‐CO2eq), the occurrence ofa certain amount of damage is unavoidable.
 It is necessary to study and implement

adaptation measures from the long‐termviewpoint
23

Outline of S‐8 projectzzzz

Global Environment Research Fund S‐8 by Ministry of theEnvironment
Targeted area : Whole and regional area in Japan and Asia‐
Pacific region
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture, coastalzones, human healthResearch period:¾zzz

Period I (2010‐2012) + Period II (20013‐2014)

Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Research budget: around 0.35 billion yen per year
Number of sub‐themes: around 10¾¾¾Impact assessment in whole Japan: around 7
Impact assessment in Japanese regional area: around 2
Impact assessment in Asian developing countries: around 124

Comparison between S‐4 and S‐8S‐4S‐8

Targeted area

Whole Japan

Targeted fields
Research

Water resources, forests, agriculture, coastalzones, human health, economic
Period I (FY2005‐2007) + Period I (FY2010‐2012) +Period II (FY2008‐2009) Period II (FY2013‐2014)

Period:Project leader
Budget:Number ofresearch team

Whole and regional
Japan, Asia‐PacificNobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Around 0.2 billion yen
Around 0.35 billion yen
per yearper year
7Around 1025

Objectives of S‐8 project
To assess climate change impact assessment focusing
on whole Japan under different GHG concentration
stabilization scenarios and adaptation strategiesz¾¾Utilization of new climate scenario with high accuracy andresolution
Development of advanced model for assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation strategy

To develop a planning method for adaptation strategy
focusing on Japanese local government anddeveloping countriesz¾¾

Development of simplified tool to assess the impacts of,and vulnerabilities and adaptation to, climate changeConsideration of uncertainty in the assessment26

Collaboration with other research by GERF
and external research fund
S‐4

Scheme of S‐8
Simpleassessment
method【Theme 2】

IAV onJapanese local
government

Water Health

Agri.

Bio.

CoastsIntegrated modeling
Economic assessment

feedback bylocal
government

feedback bydeveloping
country

Transmission of research results todomestic and international policymaking

Simpleassessment
method【Theme 1】 IAV on whole Japan【Theme 3】
IAV on Asia‐
pacific region
Various IAV
research andassessment on Asia‐
pacific region

IPCC AR5
GERFS‐5
Kakushin
IPCC AR4IPCC TAR

Integrated
Assessment model
AIM/Impact[Policy]
Patternscaling

Bias collection

Climate scenarios

Uncertaintyanalysis

GERFS‐3/S‐6
Long term vision

IRFs（w.,w/o adaptationstorategy）

Socio‐economicscenario

Future population

Simple tool for CC
impact assessment【Theme 2】 IAV on Japanese
local government

Simple assessment
method【Theme 3】
IAV on Asia‐pacific region【Theme 1】 IAV on whole JapanAIM activity to S‐8 project28

Future Planz

Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]¾¾

Revision of energy‐economic model
Extension of assessment field
9 Incorporation of adaptation strategy¾z

Shift from S‐4 to S‐8 project¾z

Collaboration with Asia‐Pacific researchers
Focus on adaptation strategy

Impact assessment in Tokyo29