GHG Emission Reduction Policy Assessment for China-Collaborated Project on AIM/Emission-China Between NIES and ERI-

AIM/Emission China Project Team
Prepared for 5th AIM Workshop
March 24th to 26th, 2000, NIES, Tsukuba

Sectors in AIM/End use of China
SectorAgriculture
Industry

Energy Conversion
Transport
Commercial Sector
Residential Sector

Sub-Sector
Iron and Steel
CopperAluminum
Zinc&Lead
Cement
Glass
Brick
Lime
Ammonia
Ethylene
Soda Ash
Caustic Soda
Fertilizer
Calcium
Paper Making
TextileCastingHeat Treatment
Forging
Cutting
Other Industry
Power Generation
Refinery

Urban Resident
Rural Resident

Simulation for 2010v
vvvv
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
vv
v
v
vv
v
vv
v
v
vvv
v
v

Simulation for 2030
OOOvvvvvvvv
vvv
v
OOO
OOO
v
OOO
OOO
OOO
OOO
OOO
OOO
OOO
OOOvv
v
v

C lassification& Steelerrous m etal

ing m aterials

Technology List

ical industry

chem ical Industry-m aking

einerytion
ng w orks
ultural products processry
al husbandry
heating in resident
ng in resident
ng in resident
ng & H ot w ater innt
ic A pplianceheating in service sectorngngng & H ot w ater
ic A ppliancenger & freight transport

Tech nologies (eq uipm ent)
C oke oven, Sintering m achine, B last furnace, O pen hearth furnace (O H ), B asic oxygen furnace (B O F), A C -electric arcfurnace, D C -electric arc furnace, Ingot casting m achine, C ontinuous casting m achine, C ontinuous casting m achine w ith
rolling m achine, steel rolling m achine, C ontinuous steel rolling m achine, E quip m ent of coke dry quenching, Equip m entof coke w et quenching, Electric pow er generated w ith residue pressure on top of blast furnace (T R T), Equipm ent ofcoke oven gas, O H gas and B O F gas recovery, Eq uipm ent of co-generation.
A lum inum production w ith sintering process, A lum inum production w ith com bination process, A lum inum w ith B ayer,
E lectrolytic alum inum w ith upper-insert cell, E lectrolytic alum inum w ith side-insert cell, crude copper production w ithflash furnace, crude copper production w ith electric furnace, B last furnace, R everberator furnace, L ead sm eltingsintering in blast furnace, L ead sm elting w ith closed blast furnace, Zinc sm elting w ith w et m ethod, Zinc sm elting w ith
vertical pot m ethod.
C em ent: M echanized shaft kiln, O rdinary shaft kiln, W et process kiln, L epol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln w ith proheater, dry process rotary kiln w ith pre-calciner, Self-ow ned electric pow er generator, E lectric pow er generator w ith
residue heat; B rick & T ile: H offm an kiln, Tunnel kiln;
L im e: O rdinary shaft kiln, M echanized shaft kiln; G lass: Floating process, V ertical process, C olburn process, Sm elter.
E quipm ent of synthetic am m onia production: C onverter, G asification furnace, G as-m aking furnace, S ynthetic colum n,
Shifting equip m ent of sulphur rem oving; Equipm ent of caustic soda production: Electronic cell w ith graphite process,T w o-stage effects evaporator, M ulti-stage effects evaporator, Equip m ent of rectification, Ion m em brane m ethod;
C alcium C arbine production: L im estone calciner, C losed carbine furnace, O pen carbine furnace, E quip m ent of residue
heat recovery; Soda ash production: A m m onia & salt w ater preparation, lim estone calcining, distillation colum n, filter;
Fertilizer production: E quip m ent of organic products production, E quip m ent of residue heat utilization
Facilities of atm ospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities
of cracking w ith hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator,
N aphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization fromethylene.
C ooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of w ashing, facilities of bleaching, evap orator, crusher, facilities of de-w ater,
facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, C o-generator, B ack
pressure electric pow er generator, condensing electric pow er generator.
C otton w eaving process, C hem ical fiber process, W ool w eaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing
process, G arm ent m aking, A ir conditioner, L ighting, Facilities of space heating.
Ingot process: C upola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, G as-fired pre-heater, O il-fired
pre-heater, Steam ham m er, Electric-hydraulic ham m er, P ressing m achine; Facilities of heat processing: C oal-fired heatprocessing furnace, O il-fired heat processing furnace, G as-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace;
C utting process: O rdinary cutting, high speed cutting.
D iesel engine, Electric induct m otor
T ractor, O ther agricultural m achine
D iesel engine, Electric induct m otor, processing m achine, coal-fired facilities.
D iesel engine, Electric induct m otor.
D iesel engine, Electric induct m otor, O ther m achines.
H eat supplying boiler in therm al pow er plant, B oiler of district heating, D ispersed boiler, Sm all coal-fired stove, E lectricheater, B rick bed linked w ith stove (C hinese K A N G ).
A ir conditioner, Electric fan.
Incandescent lam p, Fluorescent lam p, K erosene lam p.
G as burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, K erosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove,
firew ood-fired stove, m ethane-fired stove.
T elevision, C loth w ashing m achine, R efrigerator, others.
H eat supplying boiler in the therm al pow er plant, B oiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, E lectric heater.
S ystem of central air conditioner, A ir conditioner, E lectric fan.
Incandescent lam p, fluorescent lam p.
G as burner, Electric cooker, H ot w ater pipeline, C oal-fired stove.
D uplicating m achine, com p uter, Elevator, others.
R ailw ay (passenger & freight): Steam locom otive, Internal com bustion engine locom otive, Electric locom otive.;
H ighw ay (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, P rivate vehicle, L arge diesel freighttruck, Large gasoline vehicle, sm all freight truck.
W aterw ay (passenger & freight): O cean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.
A viation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

Energy Services in China
Energy Service
Steel Output
Copper output
Aluminum output
Synthetic ammonia Output
Fertilizer Output
Cement Output
Brick & Tile Output
Flat glass Output
Paper and Pulp Output
Irrigated Land area
Cultivated land area
Residential households in the urban
Urban housing area of each household
Changes in cooing intensity in Urban Household
Changes in space heating intensity in Urban Household
Changes in cooking and hot water intensity in Urban Household
Changes in illumination of lighting in Urban Household
Possessing rate of refrigerator in Urban Household
Possessing rate of clothes washing machine in Urban Household
Possessing rate of color TV in Urban Household
Residential household in the rural
Rural Resident housing area
Changes in cooling intensity in Rural Household
Changes in space heating intensity in Rural Household
Changes in cooking intensity in Rural Household
Changes in illumination of lighting in Rural Household
Possessing rate of refrigerator in Rural Household
Possessing rate of clothes washing machine in Rural Household
Possessing rate of TV in Rural Household
Changes in intensity of space heating in service sector
Changes in intensity of space cooling in service sector
Changes in illumination requirement
Changes in electric power consumed by duplicating machine
Changes in electric power consumed by computer
Changes in electric power consumed by elevator
Changes in electric power consumed by other electric applianceTraffic volume of Railway Freight Transport
Traffic volume of Railway Passenger Transport
Traffic volume of Aviation(freight transport)
Traffic volume of Aviation(passenger transport)
Traffic volume of private car
Traffic volume of Small truck
Traffic volume of Large truck

1990

2000
11111111111111111111111111111111111111111
11

1.8
1.5
2.5
1.3
1.2
2.4
1.3
1.9
2.1
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.25
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.05
1.10
1.5
1.8
11.0
11.0
19.8
5.1
1.7

2010
2.1
1.7
3.5
1.8
1.4
2.9
1.8
3.5
2.6
1.1
1.0
2.01.6
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.9
1.1
1.5
1.2
0.9
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
4.3
1.5
1.4
1.36
1.35
1.20
1.15
1.25
1.10
1.20
1.9
2.4
53.1
52.6
272.4
9.2
2.9

Case definition

Case

Technology Selection

Countermeasures

Frozen Efficiency (Frozen)

NoNo

Baseline (MARKET)

Yes

No

Economic Instrument (Policy)

Yes

Carbon Tax andSubsidy

Medium-term emission scenarios: Results

CO2 emi ssi ons i n Chi na, AI M/ Chi na
3000

Mt - C

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
01990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Year
Technol ogy Fr ozen

Mar ketPol i cyCO2 Emission by sectors

Million ton-C

CO2 emission by sectors
1000
900
800700600
5004003002001000Frozen
MarketPolicyAgricult

Industry

Transport

ServiceSector

Resident- ResidentCity
RuralIntegrated Environment Policy Assessment: Local air pollution

SO2 emission Forecast in China

Million tons

4030

FrozenMarket20Policy

1001990

2000
Year

2010

SO2 emission by sectors

SO2 emissions by sectors

Million ton SO230
2520

FrozenMarketPolicy151050Agricult

Industry

Transport

ServiceSector

ResidentCity

ResidentRural

Regional Environment Policy Assessment: Dalian

China Top-Down Model
Energy Model(MERGE-MACRO)(MERGE-ETA)

AEEI

CO2 Emission
Limitation

Economic Growth Model

Energy Efficiency
Improvement

CO2 Emission
SO2 Emission

Dalian Module

AIM/China Model

Regional Environment Policy Assessment: Dalian

CO2 Emission in Dalian by AIM

C O 2 Em is s io n b y S e c to r s

S O 2 Em is s io n R e d u c tio n b y S e c to r s

Ru ra lU rb a nMarketC o m m e rc ePolicy

1990

2000

Ur b a n
Se ctor sCMP

Sec torMillion Ton-C

R u ra l14121086420Co mm e r c eT ra n s p o rt

Tr a n s p o r t

In d u s try

In d u s tr y

2010
0Year

24680 .0 0

M illio n T o n s C a r b o n

SO2 Emission in Dalian by AIM

1 0 0 .0 0

2 0 0 .0 0

3 0 0 .0 0

Kt o n S O 2GDP Loss in Dalian

400

3.0%

350

2.0%

250

1.0%

CMP
Market200

Policy150
100%

kTon-SO2

300

0.0%
1990
-1.0%

Policy-1
2000

2010

-2.0%

50

-3.0%

01990

2000
Year

2010

Year2020

Policy-2

Model Linkage

AIM/Emission China: Bottom-up
SGM-China: Top-down, collaborated from 1992

Sectors in SGM-CHINA
SGM 97
1 Agriculture
2 Everything Else3 Oil Production
4 Gas Production
5 Coal Production
6 Biomass
7 Nuclear Fuel
8 Electricity Production
Oil-Fired
Gas-Fired
Coal-Fired
NuclearHydro
9 Oil Refining
10 Gas Distribution

SGM 2000
1 Other Agriculture
2 Everything Else3 Oil Production
4 Gas Production
5 Coal Production
6 Coal Products
7 Biomass
8 Electricity Production
Oil-Fired
Gas-Fired
Coal-Fired
NuclearHydro
9 Oil Refining
10 Gas Distribution
11 Paper and Pulp
12 Chemicals
13 Cement
14 Primary Metals

15 Food Processing
16 Other Industry
17 Passenger TransportAutomobile
RailwaySea
Air
18 Freight Transport
TruckRailwaySea
Air
19 Residential Building Energy Services
20 Commercial Building Energy Services
21 Grains and Oil Crops
22 Animal Products
23 Forestry

China Carbon Emissions
3500

3000

2500

MillionMetric Tons
of Carbon

Reference$10 Tax$20 Tax$30 Tax$40 Tax$50 Tax

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

CO2 Emission from Energy Use

GtC

6
A1B
A1C

4

A1G&O

2

A1T
A201980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

YearB1B2IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

MtC

SO2 Emission from Energy Use, China

60504030
20100

A1B
A1C
A1G&O
A1T
A2
B11980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

YearB2IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

CH4 Emission of China

Mt Ch480
A1B
A1C

60

A1G&O

40
20

A1T
A20

B1B21980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)CO Emission of China

Mt CO1000
800
600

A1B
A1C
A1G&O

400200

A1TA2
B101980

2000202020402060

Year2080

21002120

B2IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)N2O Emission of China

Mt N2O

0.6
A1B

0.5

A1C

0.4

A1G&O
A1T

0.3

A2
B10.2
1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

Year2080

2100

2120

B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)NOx Emission of China
15
Mt NOx

A1B

10

A1C

5

A1G&O
A1T

0A2
B1

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

Year

2080

2100

2120

B2