Session II , III and IV Impacts Modeling
Chaired by Harasawa (NIES)
1. Brief Introduction of Impact Study :Harasawa
2. Impacts on South Asia : Prof. Lal
3. Progress of AIM/Impact Models- Takahashi- Profs Sun, Li You- Jung
- Hijioka- Masutomi

4. Disscution

Brief Introduction of Impacts Study in Impacts Group
Hideo Harasawa
S-3 Low
CarbonSociety2050 (MoEP)

S-4
StrategicImpacts
Research(MoE P)

SubjectCentral
Env.
Council(Int’lStrategy)

Stabilization andImpacts/Risk

2℃、475ppm, ←+ burden
Impact Map,
５０％GHG cut sharing
FunctionImpact/Policyin 2050

Projects

IPCC/GEO/
Avoiding
Dangerous
CC

GlobalWarming
Initiative,NHK, PR

New GW
Research Prog.

Impacts Detection

Book
ExtremeEvents andImpacts (B-12)

Extreme events
Impacts

Ch.10 Asia

Integrated
Impacts Monitoring

Special TV
ProgramHeat(19 &20 Feb.)

StressCh.17
Adaptation

NIES next
Research Plan

Scenario

Next IPCCWater
Scenario,GEO
Impact4

NIES, MoE,IR3S

Data : Climate
Model, etc.

Impact Ref.、
Temp. andImpacts

Adaptation

Adaptation
Strategy Plan

Agri.
ImpactImpacts andNIES next
ResearchPlan

Adaptation (B52)

Longterm Stabilization Target: Temperature and GHG Emission
5.0

52100

2090

2080

2070

2060

年

GHG-475ppm

Greenhouse gases:
CO2,CH4,N2O, CFCs, etc.

2050

0年

BaU

650
550
500
2040

GHG: （Greenhouse gases）
0.0

GHG
475ppm50% cut
2030

1.0

10

2020

475
GHG475ppm

15

2010

2.0

BaU

2000

650
550
500

3.0

20

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)

4.0

Global GHG Emission

1990

BaU

Global Temp.

温室効果ガス排出量 (二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)

25

GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm

GHG-650ppm

・2℃ stabilization: GHG <475ppm• Global GHG emission in 2050
<50% of 1990
•60-80％ cut in Japan ( UK 60％,Germeny 80％, France75％

S-4 Research on Dangerous Climate Risk and Emission Pathway

AIM Model Dev.
（B-54 etc.）

Links to other research

Climate Model（B-1, B-12 etc.）

GW Initiative
Extreme eventsand Impacts (B12）②Global
Impacts③Integrated Model (AIM/Impact-policy)

Emission・Social/Economic
Scenarios Database
Opt. Emission Pathway
Climate Change DB
Vulnerability Maps

①Basic Analysis
・ Definition of Dangerous Climate Risk
・ Equity (Regions and Generations)・ Uncertainty (Precautionary Principle)・ Dangerous Level of GW
・ Stabilization Path and its
Impacts

Impact Funcitons
Adaptation DB

Function, Map

Impacts Models,
Scenario Analysis in６ sectors（Other 6 Groups)

・ Total Impacts under Scenarios

Adaptation

Infomation

Assessment
Capacity
Policy Formulation（Adaptation）

Low Carbon 2050
（S-2）
IPCC
UNFCCC
Kyoto Protocol

IPCC ３rd LA Meeting
Merida (Mexico)

Chichen Itza

• 2006.1.16～19+20（CLA）• TSU、CLA、LA、ＲE、Bureau、
250persons• Topics★Response to Review
Comments on FOD★Major Findings, SPM, TS• Japanese Participants– T. Oki（Ch.3：Water ：LA）
– S. Nisioka（Ch.10：Asia：RE)– H. Harasawa（Ch.10：Asia：CLA）– Y. Honda（Ch. 10：Asia：LA）– N. Mimura（Ch. 16：SI：CLA）– K. Takahasi（Ch. 17：Adaptation：LA）

OpeningMexico Yucatan Peninsula

MeridaChichen Itza

Cancun :2005.
10.21,
HurricaneWilama(#21,Level 4)

IPCC WG2 Discussion• Emerging Impacts of Global Warming in theWorld (Detection of impacts)• Compilation of Impacts Data and Knowledge for
Stabilization and Major Vulnerability Issues• Extreme Events and Global Warming (EuropeHeatwave, Hurricane Katrina)• Large Scale Extreme Events• Acidification of Ocean• Adaptation and Mitigation• Global Warming and Sustainable Development

Ember diagram(example)(Hare, B., 2006)

Change of 0.7° - 1.0° C (i.e., 0.1° – 0.4° C additional warming)
GlobalIncreased ecosystem disturbance by pests and disease, especially in Boreal forests,
Australia and California [84] (Gitay et al., 2001; Hare, 2003)

EuropeIncreased overwinter survival in resident and wintering birds and northward
expansion in ranges of butterflies [81,82] (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,2005b).

Temperature andImpacts Table

AfricaIncrease in drought in Sahel could lead to loss of local flora and fauna [83] {ECF,2004, unknown}. Reduction in extent of Karoo, the richest floral area in the world
and declines in range sizes for some animal species in South Africa [87] (Rutherfordet al., 1999).

Australia

Coral reefs at high risk [85] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999a). Reduction in extent ofQueensland’s World Heritage Rainforest with loss of habitat and range declines inthe Golden Bowerbird [86,89] (Hilbert et al., 2001; Hilbert et al., 2003). Risk ofextinction of vulnerable species in SW Australia Dryandra forest [88](Pouliquen-Young and Newman, 1999).

Small Island

Coral reefs at high risk in Caribbean and Indian Ocean [85] (Hoegh-Guldberg,States1999a).

Change of 1.0° – 1.5° C
Global

82% of coral reefs bleached [90] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999a). 10% of global
ecosystems are transformed losing between 2 and 47% of their extents; only 53% of
the wooded tundra remains stable [91] (Leemans and Eickhout, 2003).

Australia

50% loss of highland rainforest with range losses of endemic species and some riskof extinction of Golden Bowerbird [92] (Hilbert et al., 2001; Hilbert et al., 2003;
Williams et al., 2003). Greater than 50% loss of Kakadu wetlands [94] (Hare,2005).

Small Island

Potential extinction of coral reefs in the Indian Ocean [93] (Sheppard, 2003).

StatesChange of 1.0° – 2.0° C
GlobalRisks for many ecosystems [95] (Leemans and Eickhout, 2003).

Australia

Many eucalypts at risk from range shifts [96] (Hughes et al., 1996). Significant lossof alpine zone [98] (Busby, 1988). Extinction risks for frogs and mammals inQueensland rainforest [100] (Williams et al., 2003).

North America

Large impacts to salmonid fishes [97] {, impacts on ecosystems} (Keleher andRahel, 1996).

AfricaSevere loss of extent of Karoo [99] (Rutherford et al., 1999).

AntarcticThreats to key mollusk species [101] (Peck et al., 2004).

ArcticSevere damage to Arctic ecosystems [103] (Hassol, 2004). 60% loss of lemmings
with concomitant ecosystem impacts on predators [104] (Kerr and Packer, 1998).

Future Temperature change（1950-2100）

Temperatire
Increase(℃）

Source: NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

Future Precipitation change（1950-2100）

Precipitation
Change(％）

Source: NIES/CCSR/JAMSTECNHK Special
TV Program“Climate inCrisis”
18(Sat) 21:0019(Sun) 21:00-

Impacts of Heat Wave; Excess death （1990’s vs. 2090’s）

1990’s2090’s

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100(Person/km2)
By Takahashi and Prof. Honda

Figure 1. Mission and Role of Proposed Initiative by NIES in IR3S
～Dialogue between “Problem Framing and Creation of New Science”～

International
Negotiation

Alternative Policy Measures
Technologyin Asian Countries for
Program
Sustainable Society

Problems in AsianCountries for SustainableSociety

Impact/Risk
Recognition

Future possible Scenarios
for Sustainable Society

Vision /Scenarios

Process Study Linking
Science and Policy

Implementation
Process

Policy Assessment inView of Sustainable
Development

Assessment

Identification ofProblems and Gaps

Recognition

Desirable Social
Vision / Scenarios

Concept

Imagination

Global Warming
Problems

EnergyEnvironment

Economic
Development

Policy Response to Problems
Initiative for Policy Formation andEnvironmental Sustainability (IPFES)NaturalResources

Poverty/Population

Dialogue between Problems
and Science to Create
Sustainability Science

Joint WS

Human Society

Theory of New Science
Universities /Research Institutes

Integrated Research System For Sustainability Science (IR3S)Existing Science Disciplines

International Negotiation,
Technology Selection inCOP

New Knowledge Structuring

Burden Sharing inInternational Policy

Creation of Sustainability Science and technology

Social Needs to Problem Solution Science-STS“Climate Change as a Research Field”

Problem Framing

Existing Environmental Problems

WS in Individual Field

Future Development and Application of AIM/Impacts
・AIM/Impact - Global Model
Advanced Model: Water Resources, Health, Food
New Model: Land Use・AIM/Impact [Country]
AIM/Impact-Korea, China, India
・AIM/Impact[Policy]
Stablization, Temp, Emission Pathway
Beyond Kyoto Strategy・Adaptation
・Model Application:Sustainable Society Vision and Scenario
Integration of Impacts model to Climate ModelThank YouActivity in FY2005 and Future Direction of AIM/Impact
Impact is assessedconsidering extreme
climate event andclimate variability.

ProjectModel

Present AIM(-2006.3)

AIM/Ecosystem[Global]

APEIS-IEA(-2006.3)

Dangerous level ofclimate change inJapan and Asia
will be assessed.

Extreme Event(2004.4-)

Climate policy andsustainable
development policy
will be assessed.

Impact TD(2006.4-)

Revision
Application

Development

AIM/Ecosystem[Country]

Development

AIM/Impact[Process]

Revision

AIM/Impact[Country]

Development

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Development

ApplicationImpact SDB

Development

Climate DB

Activity in FY2005

Next AIM(2006.4-)

Application

Revision
Application

Revision
Application

Application

Revision
Application

Revision
Application

Application

Revision
Application

Revision
Application

Revision
Application
Application