15th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba, Japan
15-16 February 2009

CO2 Emissions from Urban Transport andResidential Sectors in Thailand

Ram M. Shrestha and Shreekar Pradhan
Asian Institute of TechnologyThailand

1CO2, TPES, GDP and Population Growthduring 1990-2006
2.6
CO2
2.4

Index (1990=100)

2.2
2

TPES
GDP
Population

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
1990

1995

2000

2001

AAGR (2001-2006):
CO2: 4.35%
Population: 1.02%
TPES: 5.91%
GDP: 5.07%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: DEDE, 2006, IMF, 2008, IEA, 2007 and 20082

GDP and Population in theBase Case (2000-2050)
76

3000
Population

74

2500

GDP

2000
70
68

1500

66
1000

GDP, billion 1995

Population, million

72

64
500
62
60

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CAGR (2000-2050):
Population: 0.4%
GDP: 5.6%
Sources: TDRI, 2004; UN, 2006
Urban population: about 35% (2005); projected to be about 65% by 2050

How much CO2 would be emitted from all sectors
in the base case?
2005

2050

Others

6%

4%

Power

37%

33%

Transport

34%

32%

Industrial

23%

31%

2010

2020

2,500

Mton

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2005

2015

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total CO2 emission would increase by more than 9 fold during 2005-2050 (AAGR4%), i.e., 223 million tCO2 in 2005 to 2,006 million tCO2 in 2050.
4

Sectoral contributions to CO2 emission reduction
100%

3,483 Mtons

9,783 Mtons

10,485 Mtons
Residential

Sectoral Share80%

Commercial
60%

Agriculture
Transport

40%

Industrial
20%
Power
0%
ERT10

ERT20

ERT30

-20%

•
•
•
•
•

Very low contribution of the transport sector.
Highest CO2 emission reduction in the power sector, followed by theindustrial sector.
Over 73%, 64% and 61% of the total CO2 emission reduction from thepower sector in ERT10, ERT20 and ERT30 cases respectively.
Mainly use of natural gas based advanced combined cycle power
generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear based
power generation play major role in CO2 emission reduction.
Maximum of 36% emission reduction target possible from the base case.

5

CO2 Emission Reduction fromBangkok Passenger Transport

6Background•••••Bangkok: one of the 11 megacities
located in Asia.
Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) - 1568
square km
Population: 6.8 million in 2006 (10% oftotal population in Thailand)
Population density of BMA: 4,372
persons per square km in 2006 (3,869 in1990) (NSO, 2007).
Growing gross regional product (GRP): 6.1% AAGR during 1990-2006,(slightly less than that of Thailand’s AAGR (8.4%)).

7

Index of GRP per capita, Travel Demand andPopulation in BMA (1990-2050)
25

Index (1990=1)

20
GRP per capita
15

Projection

10
Travel Demand

Historic Figures
5

Population
01990

Period1990-2005
2005-2050

2000

2010

2020

Index
1990=1
2005=1

GRP per capita
3.16
6.11

2030

Population
1.12
1.50

2040

2050

Travel Demand
1.34
5.30
8Passenger Transport System under MARKAL
Model Framework
Energy Carriers
DieselGasoline
LPGCNG
Biodiesel

Gasohol

Energy DemandTechnologies

Service DemandBuses

Road Based
PassengerCars
TaxiesVan andPickups
Microbuses andPassengerVans

Urban Mass
Rapid Transits

3 Wheelers
HydrogenElectricity

2 Wheelers
Electrified Mass
Rapid Transits

78 demand technologies

MARKAL – least cost optimization model9

Scenario Description
Base Case:• No policy intervention considering GHG mitigation is considered in the basecase.
ERT10:• 10% or more CO2 emission reduction from the base case from year 2015
onward remaining all others as same as in the base case.
ERT20:• Requirement of 20% or more CO2 emission reduction from base case fromyear 2015 onward remaining all others as same as in the base case.

10

CO2 Emission in ERT Cases
40
35
Base case
MtCO230

ERT10

25
ERT20
20
15
10
2005

•
•

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

The total cumulative CO2 emission reductions—
ERT10: 94 MtCO2 (about 3% of total national level
reduction in ERT10) andERT20: 188 MtCO2 (about 2% total national reductionin ERT20)

11

Role of Cleaner Fuels in Emission ReductionEnergy Consumption, PJ
Fuel Type
B10CNGDSL
E10ELCFCLGSL
LPGTotal•••

Changes in Energy
Consumption*, PJ

Base Case

ERT10

ERT20

ERT10

ERT20

2,311
3,906
5,243
89
71
2,156
1,652
15,428

1,612
5,039
3,805
389
71
1,922
1,557
14,396

166
3,906
5,302
418
71
447
1,851
903
13,063(699)
1,133(1,438)
300
(234)
(95)
(1,032)(2,145)
58
328
447
(306)
(749)
(2,366)

Major role of CNG and gasohol vehicles in ERT10.
Role of cleaner and energy efficient vehicles prominent in ERT20.
In both ERT10 and ERT20, the use of biodiesel would be reduced throughreplacement of biodiesel microbuses and vans/pickups with hybrid diesel
microbuses, vans/pickups and buses.

12Role of Vehicle Modes in CO2Emission Reduction

Vehicle TypeBusCar
Taxi
Micro bus and passenger van
Van and Pickup
3 Wheeler
2 Wheeler
Total

Base case Emission Reduction fromthe base case, MtCO2Emission,
MtCO 2
ERT10ERT20
161
47
75
123032105215313
28
39290
1525
10028
221021
94
188

Share in the emissionreduction, %ERT10
ERT20
50%
40%
0%
17%
2%
8%
30%
21%
16%
13%
0%
0%
2%
1%
100%
100%

13

Role of Emerging Technologies in CO2 Emission
ERT10• Conventional vehicles mostly replaced by cleaner fuel and energy
efficient vehicles.
• Diesel buses replaced by hybrid diesel buses.
• Diesel microbuses/vans replaced by hybrid diesel, biodiesel andCNG microbuses/vans.
• LPG taxies replaced by hybrid gasoline taxies; and gasoline 2wheelers by gasohol 2-wheelers.
ERT20• Large scale deployment of hybrid diesel buses needed: nearly twice
the number deployed in ERT10. Similarly, microbuses/passengervans.
• Hybrid diesel vans/pickups would replace biodiesel vans/pickups.
• Fuel cell cars would be deployed from 2035 onwards.
• Use of hybrid gasoline taxi in place of conventional LPG taxi nearly
3 times more than that in ERT10.
14

Incremental CO2 Abatement Cost ($/tCO2)

ERT20

26.0

18.1

ERT10

1015

20

25

30

15

Role of Mass Rapid Transport Systems inEmission Reduction
ERM:•Maximum CO2 reduction from the base case emission from the Bangkok transport
sector would be 20% with the present structure of urban transport system.

•A shift of 10% travel demand from road based vehicles to MRTs/Railways during
2015-2050 results in a further 8% reduction in total transport sector CO2 emission fromthat in ERT.
•More reduction at higher shift of travel demand.

16

CO2 Reduction fromUrban Residential Sector in Thailand
Sithisakdi Apichatthanapath and Ram M. Shrestha

17

ENERGY CONSUMPTION By DWELLING TYPE IN BANGKOK
Comparison of different indicators
Dwelling type
Detached Apartment Townhouse
4.1
1.6
3.9753492
847
362441149
15115
536412231555
73829518

Parameters
Unit
Average size of household
personNumber of households
1,000 unit
Share to total household%
Total floor area
million sq.m.
Share of floor area%
Total energy consumption
PJ
Share of total consumption%
Energy intensity 1
GJ/dwelling/year
MJ/sq.m./year
Energyintensity
2Monthlyelectricity
consumption
and expenditure145

Parameters
Average electricity
consumption
Average electricity billUnit
Detached
kWh/month467
THB/month

1,402

Dwelling type
Apartment Townhouse172Average household

115

311

321

346

934

964

Assume 3 THB/unit

6132

Residential energy consumption by end use and dwelling
type
Energy consumption according to end-use
and dwelling type in Bangkok (2005)

Other
LPG for cooking

FEC (PJ)Lighting
25.0000

AC

20.0000

Iron
Washing machine

15.0000Show er heater
Stereo10.0000

Personal computer

5.0000

VCR, DVD

0.0000

TelevisionDetached house

Apartments
Dw elling typeTow nhouse

Fan
Refrigerators
Rice cooker

Detached houses account for the largest share in energy consumption inBangkok residential sector.
LPG cooking share significant in detached and town house; insignificant inapartments.
7

Electricity the main energy carrier.is electricity.

Total electricity consumption (GWh/year)

Breakdown of electricity consumption
in Bangkok residential sector (2005)
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00

OthersCooking
Domestic electronics

5000.00

Refrigeration

4000.00

Hot water

3000.00
2000.00

Domestic clothing
Space coolingLighting

1000.00
0.00

Space cooling, lighting, refrigeration, cooking – the 4 largest
electricity users – over 64% of electricity consumption.

8

Breakdown of electricity consumption

Yearly CO2 emission – national and urban housing

2ev
itcejbO- Total consumption in urban housing sector (whole period) accounts for only
2.8% of total FEC.
- Thus small contribution in terms of CO2 emission; 4.46% in 2005
2050.

3.7% in- Expected AAGR of 6% in urban housing sector; emission to increase by 10folds to 112 Mt in 2050.
2021

Scenario Description-Base case-

E1: cumulative CO2 reduction by 20% during 2005-2050-E2: cumulative CO2 reduction by 40% during 2005-2050-E3: cumulative CO2 reduction by 60% during 2005-2050

22CO2 emission in the selected scenarios
Yearly CO2 emission under base case and emission limit
constraints
3,500.00
CO2 emission (Mt)

3,000.00
2,500.00

Base

2,000.00

E1
E21,500.00

E31,000.00
500.00
0.00
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Effects of reduction targets on CO2 emission in urban housing sector-15%, -33% and -65%of base case nationalemission from thesector under E1, E2
and E3 respectively.

2500

2078
CO2 emission (Mt)

CO2 emission
reduction from theurban residential
sector:20001756

15001173

1000416500
0Base

E1E2Scenarios

E323

Contribution of urban residential sector innational CO2 reduction••

Urban residential sector CO2 emission at the national level would decrease by 15%,33% and 64% in E1, E2 and E3 during 2005-2050.
Contributions of the urban residential sector in total national CO2 reduction: 2.8% in
E1, 3.9% in E2 and 4.7% in E3.

24

Thank You25