Low Carbon Society in Asia:
Activities in India
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India

Presented inThe 17th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, JapanFebruary 17-19, 2012

Summary of the Presentation
Presentation Agenda (Slides 2)
The presentation focuses on the Low Carbon Society (LCS) modeling and applications inIndia as well as LCS activities carried out by the India team as a part of the Asia-PacificIntegrated Modeling (AIM) network. The agenda of the presentation is organized in fivethemes: i) Low Carbon Society Framing and Modeling, ii) Indian National Assessments, iii)
India in the Global Modeling Exercises, iv) Capacity Building, Publications, Dissemination,and v) Year 2012-13: Way Forward. (Slides 1)

i)

Low Carbon Society Framing and Modeling (Slides 3-4)

The framing of LCS examines two key questions:i) What is the low carbon society?
ii) How to achieve the low carbon society?
In recent times, the low carbon society definition is anchored with the concept of ‘green
growth’. In simple terms UNEP defines green growth as economic development which isinclusive and low carbon. The green growth orients actions to be compatible with theprinciples of sustainable development so as to ensure that the development needs of all
sections of society are met while ensuring transformation through the global effort tostabilize the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid

dangerous climate change. The LCS assessment therefore should focus on mapping longterm socio-economic transitions and align the policies to achieve the socio-economictransformation through co-operation, so as to gain co-benefits while ensuring faircompetition. The LCS framing thus proposes policies in several dimensions such astechnologies, pricing (including carbon pricing) through market oriented institutions andfinance to sustain inclusive growth. (Slide 3)
OThe global agreements under the UNFCCC have accepted the stabilization at 2 C as thetarget. The LCS assessments therefore aim at finding GHG emissions pathways that areO

consistent with the 2 C stabilization target while ensuring the green growth. The models are
the tools to assess low carbon transitions. In case of India, the model system called SLIM(Soft-Linked Integrated Models) which include multiple soft-linked models is used. Thissystem has advantages of using sets of interfaced or soft-linked models to address specificquestions posed in a policy assessment study. In 2011-12, the SLIM system for India wasaugmented by a transportation model to assess the low carbon transport solutions as anintegral part of LCS study for India. (Slide 4)ii)

Indian National Assessments (Slides 5 to 17)

Different national level exercises for low carbon society development in India were carriedout to answer specific policy questions. The exercises used the SLIM system using themodels which are best suited to answer specific policy questions. This presentation reports
two specific modeling exercises, the first using the ANSWER-MARKAL model and thesecond using the GCAM-IIM model.

The national level assessment was done using the energy system partial equilibrium modelANSWER-MARKAL which is a component model of the SLIM system. This assessed thenational scenarios which were developed for the period up to the year 2050. The analysis
included India’s announced climate action plan and various development policies, programs
and measures in the present and the near future which have vital bearing on the long-term
carbon emissions pathway. The low carbon society scenarios then visualize social, economic
and technological transitions through which India can respond to global GHG stabilization
goal. The Indian scenarios included the India multiple transitions in income (low to medium),
demographic (growth and age profile), rural to urban and agrarian to industrial.

Conventionally such transitions witness rapid rise in energy demand and emissions of local
air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The national level assessment included three economic
growth scenarios and the transition of the scenarios to a low carbon emissions path. (Slides 67)

Soft-linked Integrated Modeling (SLIM) System

DATABASES
Socio-economic, Technologies
Resources, EnvironmentANSWER-MARKALANSWERMARKAL
Model

AIM ExSS Model

Model SpecificDatabase

End Use DemandModel

GCAM-IIM / AIM-CGE

The transport sector was a key sector for which the low carbon assessment was carried out.
The modeling assessment for the business-as-usual scenario showed rapidly rising energy
demand for the transport sector from period 2010-2050. The assessment was done following
two different low carbon scenario paradigms – conventional and sustainable. The assessment
showed considerable scope for carbon emissions mitigation from the transport sector throughfuel-mix change and efficiency improvements. The sustainability scenario showed
considerable opportunities for co-benefits in the sector through aligning mitigation actions
for carbon with local air pollutants and by avoiding infrastructure lock-ins by earlytransitions to technologies like dedicated freight corridors. The transport sector assessment
showed the merits of using the detailed framework to assess co-benefits by measuring
numerous indicators belonging to multiple domains like social, economic, technical andenvironment. The low carbon transport exercises also delineated the key indicators anddecisions for making transition to low carbon transport. (Slides 8-11)

The national level assessment using the ANSWER-MARKAL model included a study ofsensitivity of the nuclear sector to the increased cost of nuclear following the Fukushima
nuclear incident. The assessment showed that inclusion of external costs of nuclear
technology would have significant effect on the selection of nuclear energy if external costs
are high, i.e. adding more than 50% of capital costs equivalent. (Slides 12-14)

iii)

India in the Global Modeling Exercises (Slides 15-24)

The Indian team participated in several global modeling exercises - in several cases together
with the AIM teams from other countries, notably Japan and China. A notable participation
was in the Asia Modeling Exercise (AME). In the AME, the AIM team contributed to thedevelopment of framing and modeling of the global Low Carbon Society Assessments aswell as preparing an overview the LCS modeling results for several key Asian countries.
(Slides 15-16)

The Indian team worked with the Japanese AIM team to develop Low Carbon Society
scenarios for India using the AIM/CGE model. Three different low carbon scenarios weredeveloped targeting different levels of global stabilization targets. The scenarios showed theextent of technology transitions and the use of low to no carbon technologies, e.g. renewable
and CCS. The food versus fuel security implication of high biomass energy use wasexamined by taking into account the diversion of land and water resources for the productionof biomass energy in India. The analysis included the comparison of Kaya identity elements
for different scenarios. (Slides 17-20)

The global integrated assessment model GCAM is used for macro-economic assessment for
India in the global and long-term (till year 2100) contexts. GCAM-IIM model is used toassess the implications of targeted technology capacity approach for achieving low carbon
transition in India. In GCAM-IIM which is an adaptation of the GCAM for the India national
assessment, the database and assessment framework is revised to suit the India specificscenarios and policy contexts. The GCAM-IIM endogenously generates global parameters(e.g. carbon price path to achieve a stabilization target) as well as macro-economic outputs(e.g. GDP loss in stabilization scenarios over BAU; MAC curve). The model was used forlong-term assessment up to the year 2095. The assessment showed that the future penetrationof nuclear technology is sensitive to the carbon price and the capital cost of nuclear power

technologies. This also confirmed the assessment done using the ANSWER-MARKAL
model about the future penetration of nuclear power in India. The specific analysis from themodel includes assessment of sensitivity of nuclear technology to the capital cost and also theassessment of CCS technology, including the combination of CCS with biomass to makedeep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions such as in case of 1.5 to 2 degree C stabilization
targets. (Slides 21-24)

iv)

2011-12: Capacity Building, Publications, Dissemination Activities (Slides 25-27)

There were significant contributions by the Indian team in various capacity building,publications, and dissemination activities. This included participation and presentations in
the LCS-RNet Workshop (Paris), International Energy Workshop: IEW (Stanford),
National Workshops on Low Carbon Transport (Delhi), meetings of Integrated
Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and IPCC Scenario Workshops. Presentations
were also made at three side-events at Durban COP17. (Slide 26)
In the year 2011-12, some important research papers were developed on the low carbon
society theme. These included an overview paper on LCS modeling and assessment for
the Asia Modeling Exercise and a paper on the IPCC RCP 6.0 W/m2. Significant
contribution was also made towards the prestigious international reports. These included
the participation in the UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap Report, IPCC AR5 and UNEP
Foresight Report. The ‘UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap’ Report, which was released at
Durban during the COP17 was a key document informing the policy makes about theoptions and costs of low carbon transition in the period till 2020. (Slides 27)

v)

Year 2012-13: Way Forward (Slides 28-31)

India is undertaking many policy actions such as coal tax, energy efficiency certificatestrading, renewable energy certificate trading and various missions such as on key themes like‘solar energy’, ‘sustainable habitat’ and ‘Green India’. Besides the progress in global climate
negotiations under UNFCCC are bringing in new policy instruments, initiatives andmandates. The newly initiated Durban Platform is expected to rake forward the global policy
dialogue. The key focus of our LCS assessments will be align the national development
policies with the global climate policies to gain multiple co-benefits and mitigate the risks
from the future climate change. The targeted technology and infrastructure push policies fornational development, if aligned with goals such as local air quality, energy security andemployment and global climate policies would deliver multiple co-benefits and thereby
reduce the social value of carbon for the nation. Going forward, in 2012-13, Indian teams
activities shall continue to inform the national and global policy-makers on low carbon andclimate-friendly national and global transitions. (Slide 29)

Cities are major emitters of greenhouse gases. Going forward, in 2012-13, Indian activities
also aim to target low carbon mobility pans for three cities. Presently, three cities (Ludhiana,Rajkot and Vishakhapatanam) having populations in the range of 1.5 million and expected tohave populations in the year 2020 close to 2 million are expected to be covered under theLCS mobility plan activities. To sum-up, in 2012-13, Indian activities will remain focused: i)
LCS Modeling & Methodology Developments, ii) LCS Roadmap Assessments, iii) Scienceand Policy Contributions, iv) Capacity Building and Dissemination. (Slide 30-31)