Brazilian and Argentine Nuclear
Submarine Projects: How far are they
and what does AUKUS mean for them?

Carlo Patti - UFG
GRIPS-SIPS/SSP Online Seminar
July 28-29, 2023

Outline• Argentine and Brazilian nuclear submarine
projects: motivation and historical paths• Argentine and Brazilian nuclear submarines as
possible threats to the nuclear nonproliferation
regimes?
• Possible solutions?
• The relationship with AUKUS

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear submarine
projects: motivations• External threats(Falklands/Malvinas warand abscence of externalguarantees)• International prestige• Defense of the undersea
resources (Brazil’s Blue
Amazon and Maritime
Argentine)• Acquisition of key nuclear
technologies (Brazil’smilitary nuclear projects)

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear
submarine projects: historical path of thenuclear programs

BrazilArgentina
Nuclear projects since 1951
Nuclear projects since 1950
Coherence of the nuclear
Coherence of the nuclear
programprogramResearch reactors since 1958
Research reactors since 1957
2 Nuclear power plants (LWR
3 Nuclear power plants (HWR from US, Germany) from 1974
from Germany, Canada) fromMastery of the nuclear fuel1971cycle (uranium enrichment)
Mastery of the nuclear fuelExisting nuclear industry
cycle (uranium enrichment lab) Strong military research projects
Existing nuclear industry( submarine nuclear project)
Capability to build and export
research reactors

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear
submarine projects: historical path
• First Argentine nuclear plan (early 1970s and possible
Italian cooperation)• Brazil’s ambition as a possible reaction to Argentina• Brazil’s Navy/civilian project as a part of the secretautonomous nuclear program (1979-1990): uranium
enrichment, submarine design, reactor miniaturization• Low profile Navy project (1990-2003)• Resumption of the submarine project (2003 - )• Inclusion of the submarine project in 2008 Brazil’s
National Defense Strategy• 2008 Brazil – France Agreement• Possible resumption of Argentine projects, but financial
limitations since 2009

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear
submarine projects: current state
Advanced state of the PROSUB Brazilian
program (two first conventional submarine built)
Brazil’s problem: construction of the nuclear
reactorPossible Argentine – Brazilian cooperation?
(historical example and Argentine capability)

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear submarines as possible
threats to the nuclear nonproliferation regimes?

• NPT loopholes over naval nuclear propulsion(Argentine consciousness of the issue since theearly 1970s)• Possible use and diversion of HEU as fuel fornaval nuclear propulsion• Possible exlusion of military facilities from theinternational safeguards

Argentine and Brazilian nuclear submarines as possible
threats to the nuclear nonproliferation regimes?

• 1986 establishment of the Peace and Cooperation South
Atlantic Zone
• Brazil’s and Argentina’s creation of ABACC mutual
safeguards and control regime and system (from 1991)• Quadripartite Safeguards Agreement (Br-Arg-ABACCIAEA)• Full participation in the Tlatelolco Treaty for Latin
America NWFZ from 1994
• Participation in the NPT from 1994 (Arg) / 1998 (Brazil)• Refusal to accept the Additional Program

Possible solution?

• Brazil’s use of LEU for naval propulsion(difference from AUKUS)• Discussion over special inspection procedures
since 2015 and especially from 2022
• (Brazil’s decision not to include special
safeguards in the TNPW)Relations with AUKUS• Different security contexts• Brazil’s willingness to build nuclear submarines
indigenously• Brazil’s precedent for reaching a safeguards agreement• Lack of NWS commitment for providing nuclearsubmarines

Thank you very much!
carlo.patti@ufg.com.br