Regional impact assessment
in JapanYasuaki Hijioka, Eiko Suda
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16th AIM International Workshop 2011 @ NIES

Presentation outline
Comprehensive Research on Climate
Change Impact Assessment andAdaptation Policies (S‐8 project)

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New development of AIM/Adaptation[Policy]•Collaboration with CRIEPI

Project of Climate Change Impact
Assessment in Tokyo2

Toward to Adaptation‐Japanese Research activities‐
Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12
programs, downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation

Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science andTechnology

Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government

Japan Science and Technology Agency, FY2010‐14, 4 programs, Reform programfor generating new social systems adapted to climate change

Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies toaddress global warming in the agriculture, forestry andFisheries
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Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs

3Environment Research & TechnologyDevelopment Fund “S‐8”Ministry of the Environment
Targeted area : Whole and regional area in Japan andAsia‐Pacific region
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture,coastal zones, human healthResearch period: Period I (2010‐2012) + Period II (20013‐2014)
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Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Number of sub‐themes: 12

 Impact assessment in whole Japan: 9
 Impact assessment in Japanese regional area: 2
 Impact assessment in Asian developing countries: 14

Objectives of S‐8 projectTo assess climate change impact assessment focusingon whole Japan under different GHG concentration
stabilization scenarios and adaptation strategies
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Utilization of new climate scenario with high accuracy andresolution
Development of advanced model for assessment of climatechange impacts and adaptation strategy

To develop a planning method for adaptation
strategy focusing on Japanese local government anddeveloping countries in Asia‐Pacific regionDevelopment of simplified tool to assess the impacts of,and vulnerabilities and adaptation to, climate change
Consideration of uncertainty in the assessment
5Socio‐EconomicScenarios

Climate Scenarios【Theme 1】 Research on highly reliable quantitative
assessment of climate change impacts throughout
JapanBio.

AgriDisaster

HealthSimplified
assessment
methodClimate Scenario downscaler
Economic assessment
Integrated assessment model
Feedback from local
government【Theme 2】

Research on impact
assessment andcomprehensive
adaptation policies
at the local
government level

Feedback from developing
country

Regional
assessment
methodWater【Theme 3】

Research on indexes ofvulnerability andadaptation effects
in the Asia‐PacificRegion
Various impact andadaptation studies inthe Asia‐Pacific region

Local government
consortium
Transmission of research results to domestic andinternational policymaking

AIM/Adaptation[Policy]
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AIM/Impact[Policy]Objective: To assess levels of impacts and effects ofadaptation measures according to different climate
stabilization levels and adaptation policies.
Energy‐economic model + Simple climate model + Climate
scenario database + Impact response functions + Userinterface
Country‐wise in global, prefectural level in Japan

AIM/Adaptation[Policy]Objective: To integrate research outcomes by other teamsin S‐8Database type tool including socio‐economic scenarios,
Climate scenarios, Results of impact assessment
Prefectural and municipal levels.
8Simpleregression

AIM/Adaptation[Policy]

Climate/Socio‐
economicscenarios
GDPPop.

Pattern scalingw/, w/o adaptation

ClimateWaterBio.

Agri.

DisasterHealthImpact response functions/Simulation results9Collaborative research with CRIEPI
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Collaboration with an S‐8 research group in Central ResearchInstitute of Electric Power Industry
Started from October 2010 –Objective
Expert mental models on the climate change risks and risk management
covering scientific knowledge to the adaptation practice
Structure of stakeholders based on expert perspectives
Considerable factors, which obstruct or facilitate the adaptation practice

MethodIndividual interviews to 10 multidisciplinary experts: climate change impacts
research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on
Influence diagram which summarize the relevant expert knowledge

StatusIndividual interviews ‐‐‐ finished
Preliminary data classification ‐‐‐ finished
Developing the influence diagram of expert perception

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Project of Climate Change Impact
Assessment in Tokyo

To assess climate change impact assessment focusingon whole administrative area of TokyoUtilization of new climate scenario with high resolution
Development of advanced model for assessment of climatechange impacts

Research period: 2009.11‐2012.3
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, disaster,human health

Water resources: quantity, quality
Forests: F. crenata, Conifer tree species, Japanese cedar
Disaster: River flooding, Inundation by sewer system, Landslide failure, Tidal flood
Health: Heat stress, Heatstroke, Air pollution, Infectiondiseases11Modeling of sewer networks in Tokyo

Manhole:547,877
Sewer:
570,732
Pumping station:93
Pump:657

Future PlanERTDF S‐8 Distributing AIM/Adaptation[Policy] (ver. 1) to theresearcher in the S‐8
 Coordination of Climate Scenarios and Socio‐
economic scenarios watching the progress of CMIP
5 and SSPs

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Finishing the impact assessment project inTokyo13