12th AIM International Workshop
19-21 February, 2007
Tsukuba, Japan

Development of Energy
Supply Model
Shuichi Ashina
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
2007/2/19

1What is “Energy Supply Model”?
• Basic concepts are close to that of AIM/Enduse– Bottom‐up type model– Linear optimization framework– Minimizing total costs through analytical periods– Energy demands (service demands) are given– Most data sets for EndUse are also available• Differences are time span and size of regions– Time span: 1 hr or below (ESM) vs 1 yr (Enduse)– Region size: prefecture, district, colony (ESM) vsCountry(, prefecture) (Enduse)
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2Why do we need Energy Supply Model?
Answer:To explore future energy system
configurations with renewables, micro‐
grids, and CHPs.

3
2007/2/19

Key factors for future energy system
Centralized
Suppliers

Nuclear

Centralized
Storage

Distributed
storageGridelectricity

Electricity
Renewables

Renewables
Fossil fuelElectrification

Stationary
Fuel cell

Heat pump
Heat

Fuel cell car

Hydrogen

CCS

Consumers

BiofuelTransport4

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Key factors for future energy system
Centralized
Suppliers

Nuclear

CentralizedStorage

Distributed
storageGridelectricity

Electricity
Renewables

Renewables
Fossil fuelElectrification?

Hydrogen

CCS

Consumers

StationaryFuel cell

Heat pump

These factors would
Heatplayimportantparts
Fuel cellcarin the system.

BiofuelTransport5

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Key factors for future energy system
Centralized
Suppliers

Nuclear•The ups and downs ofCentralized solar/wind power cannot
Distributed
Storage
Consumers
alwaysstoragebe anticipated.
•Potentials for solar/wind
power vary regionally.
Gridelectricity

Electricity

Renewables

Renewables
Fossil fuelElectrification

StationaryFuel cell

Fuel cell car
Operation of large-scale
Hydrogen?
plants cannot feed backshortterm fluctuations ofBiofuel
CCSsolar/wind.
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Heat pump
HeatTransport6

Key factors for future energy system
Centralized
Suppliers

Centralized
Storage

Distributed
storage

Consumers

For drawing future energy systems, asimulation model
requires to have 1 hour or
GridElectricity
electricity
below
span, andtocoverregions
Nuclear of time
Renewables
and/or local communities.
Renewables
Fossil fuelElectrification

StationaryFuel cell

= Energy Supply Model
Fuel cell car
Hydrogen?
CCS

BiofuelHeat pump
HeatTransport
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2007/2/19

Energy Supply Model could respond tofollowing questions
1. Conventional energy system really has nopotentials for CO2 reductions? If not, how toreduce?
––

What types of energy appliances need to popularize?
Does such CO2 reduction strategies vary regionally?

2. How to increase renewables energy supply in theelectricity sector?
–

How much does it cost? Is it affordable?

3. May Micro‐grid with renewables supply low
carbonized, stable energy sources?
–2007/2/19

What kinds of role centralized energy system will play?

81. Conventional energy system really has nopotentials for CO2 reductions? If not, how?
Generations

Pump. Hydro

1.0E+9Conv. Hydro

Electricity generation [MWh/yr.]

1.2E+9(c) 50 Mt-C case

GasCombined+CCS
GasCombined

8.0E+8

GasBoiler
OilBoiler

6.0E+8

IGCC+CCS
Coal+CCS

4.0E+8IGCC
Adv. Coal

2.0E+8Conv. Coal

• Utilities decrease their
CO2 emissions to 70 Mt‐
C without CCS, and 22
Mt‐C with CCS.
(CO2 in 1990: 78 Mt‐C)

Nuclear20052010

2015202020252030(b) Capaities of powerYearplants

Pump. Hydro
Conv. Hydro

2.5E+5

Regional CO2

GasCombined+CCS
GasCombined

2.0E+5

GasBoiler
OilBoiler

1.5E+5

IGCC+CCS
Coal+CCS
IGCC

1.0E+5Adv. Coal
Conv. Coal

5.0E+4
0.0E+02000

Nuclear

2005

2010

2015
Year

Capacities

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2020

2025

2030

140

Regional CO2 emissions in 2030 [MtC]

Capacities of power plants [MW]0.0E+03.0E+52000

120
100

Hokkaido
Tokyo
Chubu
Chugoku
KyushuTohokuHokuriku
Kansai
Shikoku

806040
20050

60

70
80
90100
110
CO2 reduction targets in 2030 [Mt-C]

9 120

How to increase renewables energy supply inthe electricity sector?
(c) Yr. 2030

60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000

Hourly potentials
471013
Hour

Renewables potential by region [MW]Maximum three days
Weekday in winterHoliday in summer
Holiday in spring and autumn

161922

Weekday in summer
Weekday in spring and autumn
Holiday in winter20,000Regional
15,000

Hokkaido
TokyoChubu
Chugoku
KyushuTohokuHokuriku
Kansai
Shikoku

10,0005,00002000

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18,000300,000
Capacities of power plants [MW]1• Max. potentials of
renewables reach 20% of
total installed capacities.
• Coal‐fired plants encourage
installation of wind power.
• Gas combined cycle leads toincrease in capacity of PV.
250,000
12,000200,000
150,000

6,000

100,000
50,000
0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

02030

Capacities & Potentials
10Year

2005

2010

2015
Year

2020

2025

2030

LFC capabilities [MW]LFC capability [MW]70,000

NuclearGas combined

Coal-fired
Conv. Hydro

Oil-firedPump. Hydro

Gas boiler
LFC capabilities

May Micro‐grid with renewables supply low
carbonized, stable energy sources?
Normalized wind speed [-]1Wind profile

0.8JanuaryApril

JulyNovember

0.6

0.4

0.2

0Electricity supply [MJ]

113253749

617385 97 109 121 133 145 157
Hour• Half of energy demands
can be supplied byrenewables, mainly windpower.
• Energy cost will decreaseby use of renewables.

2.0E+61.5E+61.0E+65.0E+50.0E+0
125
Wind49
PV73

Hour

97

Stand alone generators

121145
Demands

Energy supply (Wind+Solar+Battery)
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11

Thank you!
Your comments and suggestions
are always welcome!
ashina.shuichi@nies.go.jp
122007/2/19