The 29th AIM International Workshop
Session2 : GHG mitigations in Asia (1)Extension of National
Decarbonization Studies in AIM- Toward an integrated analysis ofdecarbonization and other issues -Go HIBINO
Yuko KANAMORIImpact of changes in socio-economic activity and consumption behavior on realization ofdecarbonized society in Japan (FY2020-2022, NIES, Mizuho Research & Technologies, NTT,
Center for Environmental Science in Saitama, Kyoto university)
Goals on Climate Change Issues
Global：Holding the increase in the global
average temperature to well below
2℃ above pre-industrial levels

Social Issues Facing Japan
Parisagreement

In model pathways with no or limited
IPCCovershoot of 1.5℃, global net
Global warming
anthropogenic CO2 emissions declineof 1.5℃”
reaching net zero around 2050

Japan：46% reduction in 2030
Net zero in 2050

・ Declining birthrate and aging
population→Labor shortage, Issues specific tothe elderly
・ Slowing economic growth
・ Population concentration in urban
areas→Progressive depopulation of rural
areas

Achieving Climate Goals
and Solving Social Issues

Society5.0

A society that uses IoTand AI to achieveboth economicdevelopment andsolutions to social
issuesRegional Circular Integrated solutions
to environmental,and Ecological social, and economic
issues by maximizing
Spherethe use of local

 What social changes and changes in consumer behavior areneeded?
 How will changes in social and consumption behavior affectthe achievement of climate goals?

resources1

Long-term projections of ICT diffusion effects
 The direct effects of the diffusion of ICT services/technologies that are expected to be diffused in thefuture in more than a dozen fields, including agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, education, social
infrastructure, and daily life, are quantified and input into AIM/CGE to estimate the environmental andeconomic impact of ICT diffusion by 2050.
 Compared to the BAU in 2050, GHG emissions reduce by about 6% and GDP increase by less than 1% in ICT
scenario.
 Regarding GHG emission reductions by sector, the emission reduction rates in the transportation sector
and the petroleum products, cement, and pulp products sectors are particularly large. It was suggested
that accelerated diffusion of ICT connected to demand reduction in these sectors will play an importantrole in the future decarbonization of Japan as a whole.
Change in GHG emissions by sector due to ICT implementation （BAU=1）

Pulp, paperand woodproducts

CementPetroleumproducts

Transport2What are the key measures to achieve decarbonization in the household sector?
• Energy service demand and CO2 emissions were estimated for the household sector up to 2050 basedon climatic and socioeconomic conditions and device information for each of the 10 regions.
• In cold regions Hokkaido and Tohoku, emission reductions were smaller than in other regions.
• Electrification has become the most important contributor to reducing CO2 emissions in the household
sector by 2050. Reducing energy service demand is also an important factor in achieving adecarbonized society, and people will need to rethink their lifestyles so that service demand can bereduced.

【CO2 emission by region in household sector】
180

Hokkaido
Tohoku 関東
Kanto
北海道 東北Kansai
Chugoku
中国
東海
関西
Tokai
九州
沖縄
KyushuOkinawa

CO2排出量 (100万tCO2)

160
140

Hokuriku
北陸
四国
Shikoku【 CO2 emissions when key changes (equipmentshare, device energy efficiency, energy servicedemand) are fixed at 2015 】
単位:
Unit:120

基準

Deviceshare
2015固定2015 fixDevice
share
2015固定2015 fix

エネルギー
Energy160 (96%)

分担率

機器効率

service
サービス

100

MtCO2 2100万tCO

ケース

80

2020

167

173 (104%)

175 (105%)

60

2025

130

143 (110%)145 (111%)

128 (98%)

40

2030

92

114 (124%)

108 (118%)

95 (103%)

20

2035

69

95 (138%)

83 (121%)74 (108%)

2040

47

77 (162%)59 (124%)

54 (114%)

2045

28

61 (218%)35 (127%)

34 (121%)

0

2020

2030

2040

2050

In cold regions (e.g. Hokkaido), many houses are dependent
2050
1046 (473%)
13 (130%)
on kerosene, which is unique to the region, making it※( )内の数字は、基準ケースとの比較を表す.
difficult to switch from kerosene to electricity by 2050.

2015固定2015
fix

13 (138%)

Kanamori (2022) Analysis of achievement of GHG reduction target for 2030 and 2050 of Japan’s household sector. Journal of JSCE
G(Environment), 78 (6), II_215-II_224 (in Japanese)3

Quantitative analysis of Japan’s decarbonized society : Model・ An applied general equilibrium model is used to establish a macro-frame for the future, given the economic
growth rate and population assumptions (1). Next, future energy demand is estimated using an energy
demand model (2). The annual electricity demand estimated in (2) is expanded to hourly demand by region,and the generation facility configuration and supply configuration are estimated using a cost-optimized
power supply model that can take into account coincidence constraints and inter-regional interconnection
line constraints (3). The results are fed back into the energy demand model to calculate Japan's overall
energy supply, demand, and CO2 emissions.

Technology-related data
AIM/Enduse ver1.0(2)

Industrial output
Cool, warm, hot water et al.
in building
Passenger and freighttransportation

TechnologySelection*1

Technology-related data
Japan’s yearly
demandElectricity
demandFuel demand

AIM/MOGPM Multiregional Optimal Generation Planning Model (3)Demand andsupply control

Electricity
Hourly demand supply
for 10 regions

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions*1：Technology selection based on economic rationaleconsidering capital, operating, energy and carbon costs
Service demand(1)

Conversion
factorEnergy demandPower generation
CO2 recovery

PowerSource
section*2

LNG
LNG+CCS・・・・
PV
On-shore wind
Off-shore wind・・・・
Interregionalpowerinterchange*2： The model estimates hourly electricity demand-supply
balance including the inter-regional power interchange andstorage input-output each of the 10 regions under the costminimization condition.

AIM/CGE4

Quantitative analysis of Japan’s decarbonized society : Scenario•

In this analysis, we assumed three scenarios and estimated emission pathways to 2050 for each: A) the"Decarbonization Technology Progress Scenario", which assumes that although efficiency improvements andrenewable energy deployment will continue, the implementation of innovative technologies will not fully developafter 2030; B) In addition to A, "Innovative Technology Deployment Scenario," which assumes that large-scale
deployment of innovative decarbonization technologies will progress after 2030; and C) In addition to B, a "Social
Transformation Scenario," which incorporates reduced demand for goods and transportation due to socialtransformation.

A) “Decarbonization Technology Progress Scenario” (TechnologyProgress)
Energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies are deployed asplanned until 2030 and continue to deploy at the same rate after 2030.
On the other hand, innovative decarbonization technologies that are
expected to be deployed at an accelerated pace and on a large scale after
2030 are assumed to be deployed at a slower pace.
<GHG net-zero scenario＞
B) "Innovative Technology Deployment Scenario" (Innovative Technology)
A scenario in which innovative decarbonization technologies that are
expected to be deployed at an accelerated pace and on a large scale
after 2030 are fully deployed, and net zero GHG emissions are achieved in2050.
C) "Social Transformation Scenario" (Social Transformation)
In addition to B, this scenario incorporates a reduction in demand forgoods and transportation while maintaining or improving people's utility,etc., as a result of social transformation, such as the development ofdigitalization and the circular economy. Net zero GHG emissions in 2050.

Innovative decarbonization
technologies for large-scale deployment
beyond 2030
• Expanded use of synfuels (hydrogen,synthetic fuels, ammonia) and biofuels• Further deployment of PV and offshore
wind power• Further electrification of freight vehicles• Further proliferation of HP equipment• CCUS implementation in power
generation and industry• Negative emission technologies
Assumed social transformation• Efficient use of materials: Sharing, longlife, recycling, resource-saving design,etc.
• Reduction of business and commuting
travel: ICT to substitute for travel
demand, etc.
• Reduction of freight transportation:
Efficient use of materials to reduce
freight transportation, etc.

5

Quantitative analysis of Japan’s decarbonized society: Energy consumption, Generation mix• Final energy consumption has been reduced by 40% to 50% from the current level due toeconomic and social structure changes and energy efficiency improvement. The two net-zeroscenarios expand the share of electricity and hydrogen-based fuel use.
• In the two net-zero scenarios, electricity demand increases significantly for the production ofhydrogen-based fuels. To meet that electricity demand, there is a significant increase in theamount of electricity generated by solar PV and offshore wind power.

PV

Offshore wind

Biomass (Non-energy)

Socialtransform

Innovativetechnology

Technology
progress

Synfuel (Non-energy)

Socialtransform(TWh)

Mtoe

Innovativetechnology<Power generation mix>
Technology
progress<Final energy consumption>

Onshore wind

Oil (Non-energy)

Geothermal

District heat

BECCSElectricityBiomass

HydrogenHydro

Ammonia

Renewable

SynfuelRecovery use of wasted energy

Ammonia

Solar heat

Gas+CCS

Biomass

GasGas

Oil

Oil

Coal

Coal

Technology Innovativeprogress technology

Socialtransform

Nuclear6

Quantitative analysis of Japan’s decarbonized society: GHG emissions, Investment• In the technological progress scenario, emissions exceed 400 MtCO2eq in 2050. In the two net-zeroscenarios, GHG emissions remain at a certain level. However, negative emission measures such asforest absorption offset GHG emissions, resulting in net-zero emissions.
• Social transformation has the effect not only of reducing GHG but also of reducing the amount ofinvestment in energy systems. Therefore, realizing social transformation will increase the feasibilityof GHG net zero.
<GHG emissions><Total amount of investment (2021-2050)>

MtCO2eq
Other NETs
Forest sink

Hydrogen and H2-based fuel40 Tri. JPY

88 Tri. JPY

Trillion JPY

CCUS
Electricity / Upgraded grid.
Electricity / Other Ren.
Electricity / Wind
Electricity / PV
Transport / Charging, H2

Non-energy
CO2Transport / Vehicle
Res. & Com. / Device

Energy CO2Socialtransform

Socialtransform

InnovativetechnologyTechnology Innovative
progress technology

Res. & Com. / Skin, FrameTechnology
progress

Net GHG
emission

Industry / Device

7Analysis of Japan's Decarbonization Scenarios Considering Prefecture Level Measures（FY2023-FY2025
NIES, Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for Environmental Protection(TMRIEP),
新しい推進費の紹介
Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute(LBERI)）

How can prefectures decarbonize consistent with Japan's vision of a decarbonized society?

【Issue 1】 Decarbonization analysis of 47
prefectures (NIES)- Study on the amount of actions and measures
introduced based on social and economic structure byprefecture- Development of local resources such as renewableenergy and forests consistent with Japan's
decarbonization planResources
EnergyICER【Issue 3】 Integrated analysis of local
decarbonization and other issues① Analysis of the mass introduction of PV and EVs and theresulting electricity supply-demand balance for the Tokyo
metropolitan area (TMRIEP)Electricity
Electricity
supplydemand
EV(Inter-regionalCarbon Emission andRemoval model)

Characterist
ics byprefecture

Snapshot tool for hybrid (top-down and bottom-up)
regional decarbonization society analysis【Issue 2】Decabonization analysis in Japan（NIES）
AIM/CGEAIM/Enduse

AIM/MOGPM

Macro flame
Economicimpact

Technologychoice

Power supplystructure✓ Set appropriate analysis segments✓ Roadmap to a decarbonized society based on latest
plans

EnergydemandMetropolitan
Area Energy
Supply-Demand
Balance Model

PV
Estimation ofwaste generationfrom PV② Reconciling a Nature-Symbiotic Society with a
Decarbonized Society in Shiga Prefecture Focusing on Local
Resources (LBERI, Dr. Kawase)
Ecosystem model

ClimatechangeNaturalresources

Artificial
capital（stock）

Ecosystem
service

Regional
AIM/CGE

Constraints（flow）(stock)Servicedemand

What will be thestate of theregion's natural
resources whendecarbonizationis achieved?

（flow）

Measures8