Low Carbon Society (LCS)~ Designing Asian scenarios towards
Low Carbon Societies ~Mikiko Kainuma
IAMC Meeting, 15 September 2009
National Institute for Environmental Studies

1

Purpose of LCS studies• Identifying and understanding the necessity fordeep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
toward 2050
• Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario
studies in developed and developing countries.
• Formulating win-win strategies to align sustainable
development and climate objectives• Studying methodologies to achieve LCS – visions,pathways, modeling, financial mechanisms• Identifying gaps between goals and the current
reality• Sharing best practices and information; identifying
opportunities for cooperation

From Japan-UK Research Project on LCSRequired improvement rate ofcarbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity (CCS only)

Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS)

Historical trend
Japan Scenario A
Japan ScenarioB

60-80%
reductions
towards 2050

U.K.
FranceGermany
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y)

Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity
compared as that of the historical record!
3Two stages of LCS scenario
developmentand relations among model groups
Stage 1: Design of a Low Carbon Society
1. Creation of narrative storylines of future Low
Carbon Societies
2. Description of sector-wise details of the futureLCSs.
3. Quantification of the Macro-economic and social
aspects of the LCSs.
4. Identification of effective policy measures andpackaging themStage 2: Putting them together anddesign roadmaps towards LCS
1. Design of policy roadmaps toward the LowCarbon Society
2. Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps
considering uncertainties involved in eachpolicy option
3. Analysis of robustness of the roadmap causedby social, economical and institutional
acceptability and uncertainties

Group 1: Element models;AIM/enduse[country], Energy supply model,
Household production/lifestyle model,
Transportation demand model, Population andhousehold model, Building dynamics model,
Material stocks and flow model, Econometric type
macro-economy modelGroup 2: Integration molels;Extended Snapshot
Tool (ExSS)
AIM/CGEGroup 3: Backcasting Modelfor roadmap designand transient control(BCM)Two stages of LCS scenario development

Stage 1-1: Creation of narrative storylinesof future Low Carbon Societies- Examples of Japan 2050 LCS study -For Japan, we prepared two
different but likely future societies

Two stages of LCS scenario development

Stage 1-4 : Identification, quantification, promotion andevaluation of Innovations towards LCS- An example of LCS house, Comfortable and energy-saving house -Identification and promotionof Innovations

Quantification and evaluation“Innovation of comfortableand energy-saving house”“ Residential sector: Energy
reduction potential: 40-50%”

Two stages of LCS scenario development

Stage 2-1: Design of policy roadmaps A Dozen Actions
toward the Low Carbon Society 1. Comfortable and Green Built
Residential/commercial-15% to 1990

-70% to 1990

IndustrialTransportation

EnergysupplyCO2 emission projections
based on a dozen actions
toward 70% reduction

Cross-sector

Environment
2. Anytime, Anywhere
Appropriate Appliances
3. Promoting Seasonal LocalFood
4. Sustainable Building Materials
5. Environmentally EnlightenedBusiness and Industry
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
7. Pedestrian Friendly CityDesign
8. Low-Carbon Electricity
9. Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand10. Next Generation Fuels
11. Labeling to Encourage Smartand Rational Choices
12. Low-Carbon Society
Leadership7

Two stages of LCS scenario development

Stage 2-1: Design of policy roadmaps
toward the Low Carbon Society

Additional Investments

GHG emissions per capita

Asian LCS scenarios study
DevelopedCountries

DevelopingCountries

High Energy
Locked‐in Type
Development

Leapfrog‐development

LowCarbon
WorldWith High
Damage on
Economy andNatural System

Time
Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia
Asian LCS scenarios study is funded by Global Environmental
Research Program, Ministry of Environment, Japan 9

Mt-C

CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China,
IPAC Results
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000DomesticWillingLow carbon techand change ofconsumption
Demonstrated byDevelopedCountries 70% to80% emission
reduction?

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
YearBaseline
Low Energy Policy
LCS

Global 50% Proposal

Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute) , Low Carbon Sociaty Scenario up to 2050 for
10 China
Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward, 2050 Project symposiumSustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures• Land-use Planning• Building Choices• Infrastructures

Technologies for TrainCorridors• Service Networks
Bus Rapid Transport SystemLow-Carbon Society Scenarios for India:
Aligning Sustainable Development and Climate Actions
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

P.R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management“Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium”
Tokyo, Japan, February 12, 2009

Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios Toward 2050 Project Symposium, 12 February 2009 Tokyo, Japan

Ram M. Shrestha and Shreekar Pradhan (AIT)

Measures to achieve low carbon society during
2005-2050
Cleaner Fuel Use and Environment
Friendly Public Transport System
Use of non‐motorized transport systems‐ shift to non‐motorized transport
Master plan for compact cities‐ Lowers travel demand
Public transport friendly design of cities and transport system‐ modal shift, higher use of Mass Rapid Transits
Use of clean fuel and efficient vehicles‐ improving efficiency and lowering carbon intensity ofenergy use in transport; promoting biofuels.

Energy Efficiency Improvements(End Use and Industrial Production)
Labeling on electrical appliances
Energy auditing – promoting use of
efficient technology in industries
Carbon emission labeling of industrial products‐ Promoting use of low carbon products.

Low Carbon Electricity Generation
Efficient and cleaner power generation‐ Promoting natural gas based advanced
combined cycle power plants
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)‐ Biomass based power‐ Solar based power
Nuclear power generation
Natural gas use in electricity generation

Building Insulation in Residential
and Commercial Sector
Building codes‐ Regulatory measures to lower energyuseFinancial incentives through Energy
Conservation Fund
Public awareness campaign‐ to promote voluntary measures1212

Sustainable Shiga study

In order to taken account of regional
characteristics in Shiga prefecture,…
1,400

91,200843224021200

2000

2030
Sq.

2030
Dv.

Primary Industry(Bill.Yen)

400
350
300

2000

2030
Sq.

2030
Dv.

2000

2030
Sq.

1102030
Dv.

Secondary Industry(Bill.Yen)

10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

2000

7,000

2030
Sq.

2000

2030
Dv.

Tartiary Industry(Bill.Yen)

Moriyama
Nagahama

4,000
3,000

Koga

2,000

Higashi-omi
Hikone

1,000

Otsu

02030
Sq.

2030
Dv.

2000

2030
Sq.

2030
Dv.

3. Evaluating effectiveness of policy measures and theirregional deployments
Otsu
Nagahama

HikoneMoriyamaHigashi-omi
Omi-hachiman

Otsu

Koga
Takashima

3241

Koga
2000

3908
1716

2030 Sq. BaU
2030 Sq. CM

3794
1586

2030 Dv. BaU
2030 Dv. CM
0500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2030
Dv.

Omi-hachiman

5,000

2000

2030
Sq.

Takashima

6,000

0200

450

60400

3830

Higashiomi

10450

Moriyama

126600150
100

OmiHikonehachiman

7545200

Nagahama

5800

250

Takashima

140

1,000

Fgt. Trs (Mt-km)

Pass. Trs (Mp-km)

GDP (Trill.Yen)

Population (1000)

2. Projecting quantitativesocio-economic structures
under alternative futurescenarios relating GHG
emissions…

2

1. Considering differences ofdemographic and industrial
structure, intra-regional trade andcommuting structure, target area
was divided into 8 regional activity
zones.

3500

40004500

Demonstration and publicity material of our LCS study
on national-level and sub-national-level analysis

14Thank you for your attention!

AIM Training Workshop on LCS studies atNIES, 31 August – 11 September. 2009