Development of water
management model

Yasuaki Hijioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies
11th AIM International Workshop, Tsukuba, NIES,
19-20 February 2006

Objectives of Water Management ModelDevelopment¾Reinforcement of water demand part in the water resourcemodel• Key issue: Water demand
Sectoral assessment: Domestic, Industry, Agriculture
9 Water savings: Technology, System, Institution, Behavior
9¾Assessment of possibility of MDG achievement• Key issue: Access to improved water supply and sanitation
Millennium Development Goals 7, Target 10: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without
sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation
9 VISION 21: By 2025 to provide water, sanitation, and hygiene for all
9¾Linking water supply and demand processes to economicactivity in CGE model• Key issue: Water availability change impacts on economic activity
9AIM, NIES

Climate change ► Water availability ► Water supply ◄► Water demand ◄► Economic activity

Overview of Water Management Model
Target area: Global, Region, Country, County¾ Unit area: Region, Country, County, City
¾ Basic concepts¾••••

Coupling process and statistical model
Separation of urban and rural area
Sector: Domestic, Industry, Agriculture, Electric power generation
Assessment of…
9 domestic water demand considering water supply and sanitation
conditions
9 institutional, behavioral and technological water saving quantitative
benefits
9 environmental investment to achieve the target of access to safe waterand sanitation
9 water related impacts on economic activities

AIM, NIES

Structure of Water Management Model
AIM/Ecosystem Other investment
Household
Government

Facility
construction

Investment

YearT
Water
availability
Labor loss

T+1
Decrease?
Increase?

Water
availability

Borehole
Publicstandpipe
Householdconnection

Supply services

Supply services

Water demand

Water demand

Sanitation services

Sanitation services

Withoutsafe waterWithoutsanitation

Labor loss
AIM, NIES

Simple pit
latrineSepticsystem
Publicsewer

Watersavings

Example of water management assessment
¾¾

¾
¾

¾

Target:• Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access tosafe water and sanitation• By 2025 to provide water, sanitation, and hygiene for all
Output: Country-wise projection• Coverage of water supply and sanitation technologies• Investment, operation and management cost
• Water supply (Water volume for domestic use)
• Health impacts: Diarrheal mortality
Base year: 2000, Target year: 2015, 2025
Data: GDP, Population, Improved water supply and sanitation data, etc(Coverage, Cost, Unit water use (L/person/day), Potential risk of diarrhoeal
mortality based on access to improved water and sanitation)
Case study• Access to conventional technologies• Access to advanced technologies

AIM, NIESHousehold connection, Health impact¾

Cost of Household connection (HC)• Total water use in HC = Residential water use+ Commercial water use + Unaccounted for water (UfW)• Unit cost: $/m3 ►►► assess benefits of UfW reduction¾Health impacts： Potential risk of diarrhoeal mortality• Assessment of potential risk based on access to safe water supply andsanitation excluding present condition and other related factors (medical,dietary, climate condition)
Category

Water supplySanitation

Diarrhoeal Risk

C1HC

IS with SC

2.5

C2

IWS without HC

SC

4.5

C3

IWS without HC

IS without SC

6.9C4NIWS

IS with SC

6.9

C5

IWS with HCNIS

8.7

C6NIWSNIS11.0

HC: Household Connection, IWS: Improved Water Supply, NIES: Not Improved Water Supply,
AIM, NIES
IS: Improved Sanitation, SC: Sewer Connection, NIS: Not Improved Sanitation,

1.0

Annual cost (Bil.&/year)

35
30

0.8

25
20

0.6

150.4

100.2

50.002025
2015
2000

2025
2015
2000

Relative risk of diarrhea mortality

Example:Access to safe water and sanitation

Conventional Advanced
Technologies Technologies
35

Total population/
Number of accessto safe waterWell
Rainwater
Public standpipe
Household connection

1600(100%)

1200(100%)

800(100%)

400(50%)300(25%)36(3%)
36(3%)
36(3%)

1600(100%)

100(12.5%)100(12.5%)100(12.5%)100(12.5%)780(65%)

2000

2015

2025

Well
Rainwater
Public standpipe
Household connection

1600(100%)

Total population/
Number of accessto safe water

Year

1200
(100%)

800(100%)

300(25%)

1300
(82%)

1.00.8250.6

20Relative risk of diarrhea mortality

Household connection

30

Well/Pond/Borehole

150.4

100.2
50

Public standpoint

Septic tank

VIP/Simple pit latrine

Diarreha

2025
2015
2000

2025
2015
2000

AIM, NIES

500(42%)600(50%)100(12.5%)100(12.5%)100(12.5%)100(12.5%)100(8%)
100(8%)
100(8%)

100(6%)
100(6%)
100(6%)

2000

20152025

Rainwater

Sewer connection
0.0400(50%)

YearApplication of AIM Framework for GEO 4z

GEO-3
9 Model: AIM/Trend, Simple econometric model for 42 Asian countries
9 Target Year: 2032
9 Indicators: air pollution and solid waste generationz

GEO-4 (planned to be published in 2007 )9 Model: AIM/Ecosystem and other AIM models, Global CGE model withdisaggregated Asia region for assessing environmental damages andtheir feedback to economic activities
9 Target Year: 2050
9 Indicators: GHG and air pollutant emission, Municipal solid waste, GHG
and air pollutant emissions from passenger transport Access to safe
water and sanitation,

AIM, NIES

Structure of AIM/Ecosystem and linkage to otherAIM modes
AIM/Air

AIM/Land

AIM/Reduction

AIM/Water
AIM/Ecosystem(CGE model)

AIM/Emission[transport]
AIM/WasteAIM, NIES

AIM/Agriculture

AIM/HealthPreparation for scenario quantification
in GEO 4¾

Scenario: Four scenario (Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability
First)• Population and GDP scenario are provided by IFs (International Futuresdeveloped by Professor Barry Hughes, University of Denver) modelWater model parameters adjusted for each scenario

2050

2045

2040

02035

02030

800
2025

2020201600

2015402010• High/Low economic growthunder high/low management efficiency

2400

2005

Two preliminary results

60

2000

¾

GDP (billion US$)• Ratio of investment cost to GDP (Safe water/sanitation, Urban, Rural)• Total safe water and sanitation coverage (expressed by per capita GDP)
• Household connection and sewer connection (expressed by per capita GDP)
1204800• Parameters related to HC
100
4000
9 UfW, Management efficiency
803200Per capita GDP (US$)¾YearAIM, NIESHigh economic growth (GDP/c)

Low economic growth (GDP/c)High economic growth (GDP)Low economic growth (GDP)Preliminary results for scenario
quantification in GEO 4,100

100909080

Low
management
efficiency

7060
50
4030
20

Access to safe water (%)

Access to safe water (%)

Access to safe water

1080
70
60
50
4030
20
10002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

YearYearHigh economic growth

100

100

90

9080

80

70
60
5040

High
management
efficiency

3020100

Access to safe water (%)

Access to safe water (%)

Low economic growth7060504030201002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Year

AIM, NIES

Household connection (U)Public standpoint (U)Well/Pond/Borehole (U)Rainwater (U)Household connection (R)Public standpoint (R)Well/Pond/Borehole (R)Rainwater (R)Future taskzContribution of GEO-4 quantitative scenario development¾Development of Industrial and Agricultural water demandmodule
9 Coupling to Water resource model developed by Dr. Takahashi
and Mr. Masutomi¾

Incorporating water demand module to CGE model
9 Coupling to AIM/Ecosystem¾

Development of water quality module

AIM, NIES