South Africa’s Low Carbon
SocietyLo Carbon Scenario for 2000
Low
2000-2050
2050 Time HoriHorizon
onResidential and Power Generation Sector

Outline• Background• Focus• Actions & Options & Barriers• BCM Modelling results• Discussion & Comments

Background• SSouthth Africa
Af i isi a developing
dl i country,
t populationl ti approx
45 million with 40% unemployment.
• 60% urban,urban and 70% reliance on coal for energy
energy. 70%
homes are electrified and building standards areinefficient. One of the highest emissions per capita (7.9ttonnes))• 160-200 years worth of coal reserves left
• Strong need for sustainable development,
development particularly inhousehold energy use and Energy Sector.
• How can the country’s
country s governance and technologicalcapability best be used to foster sustainable
development and a low carbon society?
3Focus• Residential Sector– Solar Water Heaters (SWH)()• Power Generation– PBMR (50%)– More aggressive scenario (50 PBMR, 27%
Solar)• Energy Generation– Carbon Capture & Storage

Why SWHs
En viron m en tal Resu lts: G lob al warm in g p oten tial CO2 eq

Millionn Kilogrammes

Scenario: Reference Scenario, Fuel: A ll Fuels, G WP: A ll G WPs
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
9080
7060
5040
30
20
100

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

UHE
ULE
ULN
RHE
RLE
RLN

2027

2029

About SWH• Sun is abundant• Ideal for off
off-grid
grid areas

SWH
High costs relative compared
to average household income
Subsidy to supplement
SWH capital
pcostsLack of Capacity to produce SWH’s
Increase Production
capacity of SWH LocallyCapital needed to expand operations

Lack of incentives to improvepenetration rates of SWH’s
SWH sLocal Gov
B d t
BudgetPublic-privatef dfund

Lack of criteria to award subsidy toypdifferent household types
Establish subsidy
procedure
allocation p

Public-private Investment on
SWH production
Lack of human resource skilled
to produce SWH’s
Develop capacity toproduce SWH locallyGantt Chart for SWH
Penetration of Solar water heaters to residential households
10%

25%

40%

60 %

2040

2050Barriers
Training of Personnel for SWH production

Skill shortage

2012ProductionCapacity

2012
SWH production fully functional

Finance

Establish Public-Private Partnership on SWH production
2012

FundingStructure

Subsidy Scheme established and running
2012
Decide on Subsidy
funding structure2010

20202030

About Electricity Generation• Just survived an electricity crisis in January 2008
power pplants have exceeded their• 80% of p
lifetime expectancy• Nuclear is seen as plausible solution• Ideally it should be used for buying time todevelop renewable energies (more sustainableapproach)• Policy target (Nuclear) – 50% by 2050(Solar) - 27% by 2050

SUMMARY OF ACTIONS: PBMR
PBMRTechnology not fully developed tobe introduced in the market

E Develop local skills
nuclear operations

C Pilot LocallyHigh Capital Costs

B Public-private
P blii tpartnerships
Security Concerns

A Develop strict transportationand disposal procedures

Lack of Capacity toproduce SWH’s

Limited knowledge on theenvironmental impacts of PBMRHigh training costs

Perform environmental
Impact assessment

F Develop a bursary scheme
Bad public perception
aboutb t PBMR

D Public PBMR
awareness drives

Gantt chart for PBMR
Penetration of PBMR for Electricity Generation

Develop local capacity to operate nuclear operations

Barriers

2025
2014 EIA

Skill shortage

Programme matured at this time

2015
Pilot Locally

No Experience2013
Establish Public-Private Partnership on SWH production

Finance2014
Public awareness campaigns

AAcceptancet

2015
Security

Develop Strict operation and transportation procedures

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Summary of Actions: CCS
CCS
Technology not fully developed tobe introduced in the market

C. Pilot LocallyGeographical location
is a challenge

B.2 Assess location
implications

High Infrastructure
Costs
B.1. Government to support Utilities
in Capital Costs of CCS forexisting power plants

No local expertise toassessment

E. Seek Expertiseelsewhere

Gantt chart for CCSBarriers

CCS is used extensively

2017

No Experience

2012 Establish Public-Private Partnership on CCS use for Old Coal Plants

Finance

Environmental
Requirements
Cost Implications

Pilot Locally

2017
2015

Perform Environmental Impact Assessment

Determine Infrastructure Requirements

Geographical2013

2010

Conduct geographical assessments

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO2 Emissions (SWH)()

BCM Results: SWH Penetration

BCM Results: PBMR (Nuclear)CO2 emission Reductions (PWR)()

Scenario: Nuclea50Rew27

CO2 Reduction implications

Discussion & Comments• Large potential to achieve LCS throughaggressive interventions in the PWR generation
sector• Projections should also be based on exponentialfunctions as well
• I think high resolution unit should be used to pickup low-to-medium changes.
• I would like to see connection between thismodel and other accounting models (e(e.g.
g LEAP)• Additive approach to Scenario building