15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOPIskandar Development scenario
and its policy implications
CS HO, University Technology Malaysia
15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOPFebruary 20-22, 2010
Ohyama Memorial hall, NIES
Tsukuba, Japan111

• Degradation of Water quality• Air pollution has also increased• Noise pollution in urban areas• The decline in the quality of life
• Supply of housing for the poor
• Natural disasters• Global Warming2• Review existing documents.
• Give priority on prevention ofdisaster.
• Preparation of risk and hazard maps.
• Incorporate Hyogo Framework• Review existing legislation• Review existing building codes• Review planning• Enhance the provision foremergency shelters• Improve coordination betweenagencies• Promote data sharing• Improve public awareness1• Propose insurance policy

3Current Policies-CO2 reduction efforts in Malaysia



UN Climate Change Forum at Copenhagen (Dec 2009) – Malaysia
target - Reduction of Carbon emission by 40% from 187mil ton in year
2005 to 74.8mil ton in 2020

In the National Environmental Policy (2002), Green Technology Policy(July 2009), and broad policy in the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-2010),
outlined strategies towards sustainable development with framework
for the development of environmentally friendly and sustainable formsof energy. Emphasis is also given to increase energy efficiency andpromotion of the use of renewable energy.

Promotion of renewable energy and green technology (developmentof second generation biofuel using biomass as feedstock, installing
methane trapping device and steam turbine generators etc ) as a new
growth area.

INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING OFISKANDAR MALAYSIA

At the heart of South East Asia and withinminutes from SingaporeStrategically located at the cross roads of EastWest trade lanes
Midway between the growing economy of Chinaand India

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Area(km2)

Population (million)

Density

Iskandar Malaysia

2,217

1.4(Projected 2025: 3.0 million)

631

Singapore

690

4.1

6,003

Dubai

3,885

1.2309Hong Kong

1,095

6.9

6,301

RegionLONG-TERM ASPIRATIONSPopulation Size
GDP (PPP) in USD bn
GDP (PPP) in EURO bn

GDP per capita (PPP) in USD
GDP per capital (PPP) in EURO
Labour Force
Employment
Unemployment

2005

Projected (2025)

1.4 million

3.0 million

20.0

93.3

13.5

63.0

14,79031,1009,989

21,0050.62 million

1.46 million

0.61 million

1.43 million

3-4%

1.8%

PRESENT & FUTURE STRUCTURE OF
ECONOMY FOR ISKANDAR MALAYSIAIDR Economy

The Vision“Strong, Diversified, Dynamic and Global”

Existing “Pillars” shallbe

Logisticandrelated
Services

reinforced )Tourism( Four New “Pillars” tobe

Creative Industries

SupportSystem

Food andAgro
Processing

Financial Services( FivePetrochemicalandOleochemical

EducationalServices

ElectricalandElectronics

Health Services

The Main
Pillars(Drivers)added )Strong Supporting Industries ( Metal Products, Engineering, Non-metallic, Manufacturing Related Services (MRS))
Strong Supporting Institutions (Education, R&D, Government, Private and social institutions, communication and coordination system)
World-class Professionals and Technical Work Force

BasicFoundation

Excellent Physical, Infrastructures, including IT
Excellent Working and Living Environment
Stable Political, Social Environment

The well established sectors which are manufacturing based will be reinforced while giving
new emphasis on new sectors which are services based

FLAGSHIP ZONESJB CITY CENTRE

NUSAJAYAWESTERN GATEDEVELOPMENT

EASTERN GATEDEVELOPMENTSENAI-SKUDAI

Catalyst development to complement existing
strategic industries in Johor
9

TOTAL COMMITTED INVESTMENT 2008-2009

INVESTMENT BY SECTOR 2006-2009

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP A
3Johor Corp –upgrading
KOMTAR- RM55mn-1.2 ha open
car park-Start nov07,
complete
2009
Danga Bay -Tune Hotels

1 Iskandar Investment - Oakwood ServiceApartments• GDV: RM200 million

Gerbang
Perdana/JKR CIQ
To commencein July 08(light vehicle)

A
CMP - Lido
Boulevard•GDV: RM2.7bnDanga Bay - Casa Almyra
GDV RM125mn
Target for completion 2009

2Danga Bay - Danga Island•GDV: RM790 million•Target sales launch April 2008

Danga Bay –Promenade
Danga Bay Grand Siam Hotel
Cost: RM120mn
Start (April2008)Target forcompletion 201012

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP B

UEM Land - Southern Industrial Logistics Clusters Iskandar Investment- MEDINIGDV : RM42bn• Thematic Industrial Park
Mixed Urban Development• GDV: RM1.8bn• Key signings: HG Metal, Jurong Tech

564Iskandar Investment –International Destination Resort
GDV: USD1.5-2.0bn
3,321 acres
Target to announce by Dec 08

1B
Iskandar Investment - EduCity• GDV: >RM1 bn over 7 years, area: 305 acres• Newcastle Univ invited to set up medical faculty ineducity

UEM Land - Afiat Healthpark• Signed BLA with Columbia Asia
for 70-bedded hospital.

UEM Land - Johor
State New
Admin.Centre(JSNAC)• GDV: RM1.5bn• Won M’sian
Institute ofPlanners• ExcellenceAward 2008

32

UEM Land - Puteri Harbour• GDV: RM13bn• Key signings: Limitless, Dubai WorldJV KST (60%): Symphony Int (40%)
Aman Resort (46 acres)
Cost: RM58mn, 2008-2010

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP C
1MMC Corp
PTP – expansion (RM1.5bn)•Berth 11, 12, 13 and 14•Capacity to increase by 3.2mn TEUs to11.2mn TEUs by 2010
•Expected to attract additional FDI ofRM5bn by 2010

CAsia Petroleum Hub – KIC
Bunker Terminal in Tanjung Bin•GDV: RM1.4 billion•Built on manmade island•located 700m from PTP

1432

MMC Corp/Dubai World
Maritime Centre at Tg Bin•Initial investment of RM2.0-2.3bn,• Total expected FDI of RM17-20bn•Total area of 2,255 acres•Key activities:•Port-relatedIndustrial& Commercial
activities• General Cargo Terminal suitable for noncontainerized cargo, heavy cargo & ro-ro• Liquids Terminal with jetties, tank farms andprocessing plants•Employment of > 3,000

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP D

Johor Corp
RM500mil plant to make flexible pipes inTanjung Langsat Industrial area – Technip
Group (France)

Johor Corp
Acerinox and Nisshin RM5 bil steel plant inTanjung
Langsat

DJohor Port and Pasir Gudang Industrial Area

Johor Corp
Pacific Oleo chemical (subsidiary of Lam Soon)
to construct a RM300mil oleo chemical plant inTanjung Langsat

15

INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP E
1

MMC Corp Bhd•Intergrated Airport City in Senai

Johor Premium Outlets

2EJohor Corp
Johor Technology Park & Sedenak
Industrial ParkMSC Cyberport Johor
Cybercity in Senai
148 acres
Cost : RM400mn (phase 1)

MMC Corp Bhd
Senai Hi-Tech Park
1,000 acres
Submission ofmasterplan in June

Key Design Characteristics
Participating Model: ExSS (Extended Tool Snapshot)
Model Type: Energy Integrated Model
Participating Modelers: Matsuoka Yuzuru, Gomi Kei,Shimada Koji, Yoshimoto Kohsuke, Janice Simson andHo Chin Siong

Time Step: 1 year
Time Frame: 2005 to 2025
Solution Type: Static, Accounting method
Equilibrium Type: Market Equilibrium
Underlying Computing Framework: General Algebraic
Modeling System (GAMs) and Microsoft Excel
spreadsheet.

Inputs and Outputs
Key inputs

Demographics: population by region/ local authority, population
composition ratio by sex and age cohort, average household size.
Economic: Labor force participation ratio by sex and age cohort, Export
value (demand of goods and services from other areas by industrialclassification), Import rate (rate supplied from industry outside the area,
among the demand of goods and service within the area.), Government
expenditure (gov. consumption expenditure, gov. fixed capital formation)
Resources: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewableenergy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity.
Technology: Technology representations of production, transformation
and use technologies.

Key outputs

Economic: GDP, Gross output by sectors (primary, secondary & tertiaryindustry), passenger transport & freight transport
Energy: Energy balance table, GHG emission inventory.
Emissions: CO2 emissions by sectors (residential, commercial,industrial, passenger transport & freight transport)
Climate: GHG reduction by measures .

Regional Scope & Other Detail
Regional Profile:

Regional Scope: District level
Number of Sub-Regions: fiveFlagship zons: Johor Bahru City Center, Nusajaya, Western
Gateway Development (Pontian), Eastern Gateway Development(Pasir Gudang), Senai-Skudai.

Other Details:

Energy Demand Sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industry,
Freight Transportation, Passenger Transportation,
Energy Supply Sectors: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum
product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity
Other Sectors: -Setting of FrameworkBase Year : 2005



Target Year 2025

Emission Target

30% reduction of CO² per capita from 2005 to 2025 withCounter Measures

50% reduction of CO² emission from 2025BaU to 2025CM

Scenarios2025 BaU (business as usual) without Counter measures2025 CM with Counter measures

Sensitivity analysis

Economic activity level
Commuting structure20Energy Demand By Sector
10,936

12,000

Energy demand (ktoe) .

10,000

232%

1,442

Freight transport
Passenger
transport
Industry

790

8,000

5,915

6,000

6,635

3,286834

253

Industry is expected to be
6,635 ktoe and will maintainthe largest share of 61%.

4,000

2,000

3,494

572
359

1,73302005

382
240

978

Energy demand in IM is
projected to increase from3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oilequivalent) in 2005 to
10,936 ktoe in 2025 for theBaU case (BaU: businessas usual)

685

1,091

649

2025 BaU

2025 CM21

Energy Demand by Energy Sources
Coal

12,000Hydro power
1,844

Energy demand (ktoe) .

10,00061

Solar & wind
power
Biomass

8,000
3,854
6,000964

447

4,000

2,000

3319328960
1,209

4,978

1,729

Energy sources suchas biomass, solar
and wind power will
be newly introduced
for primary energy in2025 CM case.

78802005

3,694

Increase in demand
for natural gas (3.2times) theconsumption in 2005.

2025 BaU

2025 CM

22

GHG Emission By Sector
50,00045,0001,672

GHG emissions (ktCO2) .

40,00045,484

Freight transport

4,070

Passenger
transport
Industry
Commercial

35,00030,00024,83225,00019,58920,00015,0001,481

12,552

1,615
10,000 1,015
6,035
5,000
2,41902005

1,468

447

7,19510,897

7,715

3,802
2,972

2025 BaU

2025 CMGHG Emissions in IM
are projected toincrease from 12,552
ktoe CO2 (2005) to45,484 ktoe CO2 (2025BaU)
Industry Sector will
increase 4.1 times intotal as compared to2004 in GHG emission .
(54%of total GHG
emission in 2025 BaU)
GHG emissions per
capital : 9.3 tonnes ofCO2 /capita (2005) to15.1 tonnes /capita(2025 BaU ), with CM
will be reduced to 6.5
tonnes of CO2/capita.
23

Potential Mitigation in IM
50,0005521

GHG emissions/reductions (kt-CO2)

40,0003510
777

35,00030,000262%

57%

25,00045483

20,00052%

15,00010831

Transport demand management
Fuel shifting
Efficiency improvement (buildings)
Efficiency improvement (transport)

4463
19162

Efficiency improvement (industry)
Efficiency improvement (powersector)

10,0005,000

Emission Reductions

623

45,000GHG emissions

12552

02005

2025 BaU

2025 CM24

Mitigation Measures25

Low Carbon Region Policy Package
Buildings•Environmental performance standard
and evaluation of buildings•Adjustment of tax rate of fixed assettax•Low interest loans to investment toenergy efficient buildings•Environmental performance standardof equipments•Environmental labeling•Education and information service•Green purchasing policy

Transport & Land use•Urban planning•Transport planning•Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset•Investment to public transport

Energy efficiency
improvement

Industry•Environmental performancestandard of vehicles•Tax rate adjustment toenergy efficient vehicles•Promotion of bio fuel•Incentive to introduce energy efficientequipments & buildings•Incentive to introduce renewable energy

Lowering CO2intensity•Subsidy to introduce
photovoltaic power
generation system•Subsidy to investment to energy
efficient equipments•Promotion of technology transfer•Controlling urban growth &choice of transport mode

Transport
demand control

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

6.

Conclusion

1• The current annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in IM areapproximately 12.6 million t-CO2, and in the BaU scenario it will
increase to 45.5 million t-CO2 or 3.6 times higher than that of2005.

2• However by adopting the mitigation options available, by 2025
the emissions can be decreased approximately 60% andsuppressed to a 19.6 million t-CO2.

34• The goal of developing Iskandar Malaysia as a Low Carbon Society
is possible with the reduction of CO2 emissions per capita.
• To realize a LCS, IM has to have new and bold policies toencourage and promote businesses and citizens have to takecountermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

27

15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOPTHANK YOU FOR YOURATTENTIONCS HO , University Technology Malaysia
15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP

February 20-22, 2010
Ohyama Memorial hall, NIESTsukuba, Japan28

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