Structure of Model for theAPEIS Project
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kyoto University, Japan

1. Brief introduction of the AIM
2. Models used for APEIS Project
3. AIM/Emission, Ecosystem,Material and AIM/Trend
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

1

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model.
• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM),and a large-scale computer simulation model
developed to promote the integrated assessment
process in the Asia-Pacific region• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,
Thailand and Malaysia members.
• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began
an international collaboration system from 1994.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 20022

Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:
The AIM Approach
Population
model

IPCC

Economic model
Lifestyle
EnergymodelLand use model

AIM/Emission,
AIM/Material

GHG emissions

AIM/Trend

APEIS

MitigationofClimate
ChangeTechnology

Japan team

UNEP/GEO3

India team

Eco-Asia

Carbon cycle

EMF19
National

Atmosphericchemistry

apply

Ocean
uptakeClimatic change

government
privatecompanies

Sea levelrisemodel
development

Korea team

AIM/Climate

Climate change
AdaptationofClimateChange

China team

Thailand team
Malaysia team

Water resource

Ecosystem

Humanhealth
Agriculture

AIM/Ecosystem
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 20023

Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere

AIM/Emission

Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario

AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)

Socio-Econ.
Factors

CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
SurfaceOcean

Land-use

AIM/Climate

Water
Resource

Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply

AIM/Ecosystem

Adaptation

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

4

AIM/Emission
Bottom-up and Top-down•The AIM/Emission has two types of models, i.e. Bottom-up
type energy models and Top-down type energy models.

•Bottom-up type energy models : Energy demand iscalculated by multiplying energy service and energyefficiency. Energy efficiency is calculated with the diffusionof new technologies, and energy prices. Within the model，
recruit processes of energy technologies, choice andoperation of energy devices are described in detail.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

5

Top-down andBottom-up
Energy models
in AIM Family

トップダウンの視野
Top-down view
Energy system as a part of economic system
経済又は経済のエネルギーサブシステム= f( labor、capital、energy、others) )・GDP・GDP=f(労働力、資本、エネルギー、その他→静的視点
・ Population・price・investment
・人口、・価格、・投資
growth → Dynamic point of views
・成長効果 →動的視点
・Economic

AEEI
AEEI
・Structualchange
・構造的変化・・技術的変化Technological change

Priceeffect
価格効果
・代替効果
・Substitution
・その他
・Others

Incomeeffect
収入効果

Investment
投資効果

Economic
経済活動 Activity
エネルギーサービスにEnergy service
エネルギーサービスに対する需要対する需要
demandエネルギー供給
EnergysupplyEnd-use
最終消費
energyエネルギー
service

CO2排出
COCO
22排出
emission

Energyintensity, Energy mix
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ強度、燃料構成

Economic
経済活動Activity
部門A A

ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ供給
Energyend-use
技術atechnologya・投資費用•Investment
・運転費用•Operating cost・効率
•Efficiency
・寿命等•Lifetime

Energyend-useｴﾈﾙｷﾞ
technology
ｰ消費b

技術

•Investmentb•Operating cost
•Efficiency•Lifetime

Economic
経済活動
Activity
部門B B

Energy end-use
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ消費technology
bc
技術
・・・

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

Economic
経済活動
Activity
部門C C

Bottom-up
view
ボトムアップの視野

6AIM/Emission- Coupling of models Socio-Economic Scenarios
Resource Base

Population

GDP

Lifestyle

AIM/emission
Regional / National Bottom-up Model

End UseEnergyEfficiency

SocialEnergyEfficiency

Technology
ChangeExploitation
Technology

ResourceBaseGDP

Food
Consumption
Pattern

Industrial
ProcessChange

IndustrialProduction

Other
InputsGDP
Population

Population
EnergyResource
EnergyServiceDemand

Goods &Service
DemandEnergyPriceSocialEnergyEfficiency
ChangeEnd UseTechnology
ChangeEnd Use
Technology

FinalEnergyDemandFinal
EnergySupplySO2,NOx,SPM
EmissionRegional Air
Pollution
Model

Goods &Service
SupplyPrimary
EnergySupplyEnergyConversion
Technology
Efficiency

Biomass
EnergyDemandEnergyConversion
Technology

Goods andService Price

Land
Input
Cropland
PastureForestBiomass Farm

Global Energy-Economic Model
Other Land

GHGs
EmissionsGlobal Land
Equilibrium Model

AIM/climate Model

APEIS Capacity Building WorkshopOctober 24, 2002

7

CO2 Emission Scenarios
A1FI (A1C)
A2
A1FI (A1G)

A1B
B2

A1T
B1

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 20028

Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere

AIM/Emission

Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario

AIM(Asian-PacificIntegrated
Model)

Socio-Econ.
Factors

CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
SurfaceOcean

Land-use

AIM/Climate

Water
Resource

Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply

AIM/Ecosystem

Adaptation

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

9

AIM/Climate
AIM/emission

Natural change

Balance and Chemical modelof GHGs
Carbon cycle modelN2O model

CH4 model

CFCs model

Ocean model

convection andtransport ofaerosol, SO2 andNOx
Climate model
Radiative forcing, Energy balance

Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model

Sea level rise model
Ice melt
Glaciers
Greenland
Antarctica

Thermalexpansion

Sea level rise

Global temperature change
Spatial interpolation with GCM

GCM,RegCM
experiments

Regional temperature change
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

10

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100

ncy ofFreque cesenoccurr

A2 3.8±0.8

0.4

A1B 2.9±0.6
B2 2.7±0.60A1T 2.5±0.6

1～1.5
1.5～22～2.5
2.5～3
3～3.5
3.5～4
4～4.5
4.5～5
5～5.5
5.5～60.2

Temperatu
rechange(C)B1 2.0±0.5←95% 5.1C
Geometric mean= 2.88 C
S.D. of logarithm= 0.346←50% 2.88C

A1FI 4.5±0.9

0.6

10.5
←5% 1.63C

All 3.1±1.1

Fitted probability and frequency of occurence

Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3,HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM

01

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

2345Temperature change (C)611

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries
from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF
Precipitation change

Temperature change

fFrequency ooccurrence

0.2

0.15
0.1
0.05
00.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
India 3.1±1.1℃0(%)

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

> 7.0

6.0-6.5

Global 3.1±1.1℃
6.5-7.0hange

5.0-5.5ec

5.5-6.0

turJapan 3.7±1.3℃
4.0-4.5Temper aChina 3.9±1.4℃

4.5-5.0

Japan 4.6±9.9%< -30ipitation
change-20～-15China 7.2±9.4%-5～0ec

India 3.7±19.5%
10～1525～30

Pr

0.25

<1.0
1.0-1.5
1.5-2.0
2.0-2.5
2.5-3.0
3.0-3.5
3.5-4.0f
Frequency ooccurrence0.25(℃)

12Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere

AIM/Emission

Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario

AIM(Asian-PacificIntegrated
Model)

Socio-Econ.
Factors

CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
SurfaceOcean

Land-use

AIM/Climate

Water
Resource

Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply

AIM/Ecosystem

Adaptation

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

13

Outline of the Crop Productivity Model
AIM/climate, Surface water runoff model
Crop productivity model
Temperature, Precipitation, PET, PAR, Soil characteristics
Crop Parameters

Estimation of Growing Period
Biomass Production RateThreshold Temp.
Normal Growing Period

Photosynthesis Path
Normal Leaf Area Index

Net Biomass Production
Normal Harvest Index
Soil constraints

Soil data

Potential Productivity
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

14

Wheat productivity change in somecountries from 1990 to 2100
With CO2 fertilization

11

Frequency ofoccurrence

fFrequency ooccurrence

Without CO2 fertilization

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.40.40.20～50 50
0～40 0～ 4 30
3 0～
0
2 0～ 2 101 0～000～-1 ～ -1
00-2
20～
0-3
0-3
～
0-4
0
-4
0～
-5
50～
0-60-6～0-7-700～
-1

Pro
ducti
v

ity

change(%)

India
Ch
ina
Ja
pa
n-5.

-6.
5±1.5%

Canada

29.7±6.9%-53.2±19.9%9±10.6%

0.2
Ca
na

0～
50 50 0～ 440 0～ 30 0
3 0～ 2 0
12 0～
1 0～ ～ 0 0
0
1-1 ～ - -2 0
00 ～-30-2
0-4-3 0～0-5-40～60～-50 ～ - -7 0
60～-700-1

Productiv

itychangeAPEIS Capacity Building Workshop

October 24, 2002(%)

IndChi na
Japan24.3±4.433

ia.2±-34

12

da. 3±
1690.6.1%.5%%15±19.8%

Wheat productivity change in India from1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization

0.40

0.20
0.10
750
p

0.00
-70-6 ～ 6
5-6 ～ - 5
0 ～ 60-5
5 -5-5 ～ - 5
50-4 ～ -4 0
5～ 5-40 -4-3 ～ -3 0
5～ 5-30 ～ -3 0-2
5 ～ -2 5-20 ～ -20-1
5 ～ -1 5-10 ～ 10-5 ～ -50～ 0
5～ 510ncy ofFrequenceoccurre

0.30

P roducti
vit

ychange(650p
550
p
450p
SRES%)APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

pm

pm

pm

pm
-14

-20

-29
±7.
8%

-26
±7.
0%
±6.
8%±5.
8%

-34
± 16%
16

AIM/Trend
Scenario Generation & AIM-TREND
past economic trend

China India Korea Japan
ThailandDiscussion

past environmentaltrend

InputRenewable Energy
Population Growth

AIMTREND

OutputEconomic Growth
Energy Efficiency
Improvement

Narrative Scenarios
Asian Quantitative
FutureScenarios
economic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Feedback

Future Estimates
Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

172032

202 5

2015

200 5

1995

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
Sin gapor e

Br uneiK orea, RepNauru

Aust rali a

Tai wan

J apanT hail andPala u

New Zeala nd

Mo ngoli a

M alays ia

ChinaKore a,Dem

Pol ynesi aVi etNam

I ndiaPhili ppine s

Indo nesia

Mal divesTon ga

Fi ji

S amoaPakis tan

Bang lades hNepa l

Sri Lanka

Pa puaNe wGuin ea

My anmar

K iriba ti

V anua tu

Solom on I sland s

Bhut an

LaoYear
Cam bodia

Projection of CO2 emission percapita for each country
CO2 emission per capita (Mt-C/cap)
20

18

1614

12

108

64

20Country

18

CO2 emission intensity
for each scenario

Change of agricultural water
withdraw intensity at Thailand

Conventional2032
Policy1995
Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 1990
m3/ha/year

gC/m2/year

0520000 5 50 500 5000

Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 2030

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 200219

10 100 1000

2032

AIM/Material
produced commodity

pollution

pollution
management

CO2
energyintermediate

production
sectorCO2

recycleimportexportmarketenvironmental
Industry/investmentenv. capitallaborenergyintermediate
capitallaborabroadCO2
householdenergyfinal demand

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

government
20

AIM models for this Workshop
AIM/trend
AIM/TrendCommunication platform
to assess future trendof each countries
in the Asia Pacific
China
Region supported
Thailandwithmulti -regional
environment -economic
CGE model

AIM/Ecosystem
AIM/ecosystem
Futureeconomic trend

Temperature

Futureenvironmental trend

Korea
IndiaJapan

Detailed processmodel for ecosystemassessment focusedon surface water
recycling, crop
productivity andvegetation

Precipitation
Sunshine

Water resource

Land use

Socio -economic
indicator

Crop Productivity

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

AIM/CGE
AIM/CGE-Linkage

Detailed technology
selection model
supported by
CGE model
to estimate
Emissions ofCO 2 , SO 2, NO 2,
SPM and otherEmission Intensity of SO
pollutants

AIM/material
AIM/Material
CGE -supported
model integrated
with material balance
to assess recycle
process andenvironmental
industry

2 in China

Environ mental
BurdenEnvironmental
burdenEnvironmental
Industry
Green Purchase

Industry
Consumer

Environment Fund
WastesAIM/emission
AIM/Emission

RecycleWorld Economic
Model

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)

Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

21

Review of Models used in this Workshop• AIM/Emission ：AIM/Enduse is a bottom-up energy model, whichfocuses on the activities of the people who deal with energy
consumption and production, plus the changes in technologies.
Based on detailed descriptions of these items, it calculates thechanges in energy consumption from technological substitution
caused by changes in energy prices, using its bottom-up structure.

• AIM/Ecosystem : calculates global and regional climatic impacts,
especially on primary production industries, such as water supply,agriculture, forest products and human health.

• AIM/Material ： intends to estimate economic and environmental
effects of environmental investment. It assesses the effects of policy
integration for comprehensive environmental problems. It has aconsistency of material flow and a consistency of activities and realityof technology and policies.

• AIM/Trend : is developed to prospect the basic situation of economy,energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region. It covers 42 countries
in Asia-Pacific region. It uses simple method (econometric) anddevelops several scenarios for capacity building.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 200222

AIM/Emission family
Model
AIM/Enduse

Situation
Operating

AIM/Local

OperatingObject
National CO2 reduction
programCharacteristics
Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
Constant lifetime cohort, Optimum subsidy
optionLinkage of CO2, SO2, NO2, Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
SPM reduction program, simple cohort structure, coupling with air
National/Regional scale, pollutant emission inventories
ALICE:Ancillary-effects estimating model for
Coupling reduction
local governments to improve theirprogram with Emission
comprehensive environment
Inventory
AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS

Implementation
Fortran program named"engd"
MS access interface andGAMS main program,
Supported withAIM/Database

Device combined version (AIM/Enduse Vr.2):
Able to treat combined input and output
services, e.g. Power generation and secondary
use of electricity
Subsidy version (SUB) : optimum subsidy toreduce gas emission

AIM/Energyeconomics

Obsolete but
Operating(FirstGeneration)

Long-term GHG emission Based on the ASF/ER model, Backcasting ability Fortran program
projections from the point from emission and concentration targets,
Coupling with the enduse model in near-termof energy supply andprojection
demand equilibrium

AIM/CGE (energy)

OperatingEconomic assessment ofglobal GHG reduction,
EMF14/19 comparative
study

Global multi-regional CGE model with energy
resource sectors and interface to bottom-up
model

AIM/CGE (Asia)

Developing

Environmental andEconomic assessment of
Global Environmental
Policy, focuses on AsiaPacific region

Global multi-regional CGE model with economic GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP5,
IEA energy balance
goods/bads, natural resource sectors andtable, Commodity
interface to bottom-up model
statistics, Detailed
database of natural
resources
AIM/Database

AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP4,IEA energy balance table

23AIM/Ecosystem family
Model
AIM/Ecosystem

Situation

ObjectClimate change impact
assessment with detailed
process model, surface watercycle, crop productivity,
vegetation, healthCharacteristics
Grid or basin level
hydrological model, cropmodel, vegetation model,
malaria model. Interface with
GCM/RegCM output

Implementation

Global/Regional version
Operating andDeveloping(FirstGeneration)
Developing

AIM/Ecosystem2Developing

Global assessment
Linkage with World crop trade
model
Country/Local version
Country impact assessment
Packaged and Disseminate
version of global version
AIM/Country
Assessment of global
Assembly of ratherenvironmental changes and their independent modules
counter-measures
LAND, WATER,AGRI, ENV,HEALTH, VEG,
Exploratory models for next
generation AIM activities

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C

IDRISI,FORTRAN,C, VB,
AIM/Database
GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C,GAMS

24

AIM/Material and AIM/Trend
Model

Situation

ObjectCharacteristics

AIM/Material

Operating ,Applying toJapan, Indiaand China

Economic assessment of One country CGE GAMS/MPSGE
model with material MS ACCESS
nation environmental
MS EXCEL
policy, focused on CO2 balance andinterface toreduction and wasteenvironmental
recyclingtechnology model
APEIS

Coupling withbottomup
engineeringmodels, Couplingwith Householdproduction
approach

AIM/Trend

Operating,Distributing

Communicating platform Country
econometricfor constructing Asiamodel. Assembly
Pacific regional
environmental outlook, of Energy, Water,
Agriculture andother modules
ECO-ASIA, APEIS,
GEO3,AIM/Country

Developing/evolving to an
econometrice tool
(ATPL/ATML)
included in the
AIM/Database and
AIM/CGE/ASIAAPEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002

Implementation

Visual Basic for MS
Excel, National andInternational
statistics
AIM/Database

Prospect25