The 11th AIM International Workshop
19-21, February 2006
Tsukuba, Japan

Low Carbon Society Scenarios
toward 2050
-Model Development in Japan
and Global ChallengesJunichi FUJINO (fuji@nies.go.jp)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)To avoid serious CC impacts, it is necessary tostabilize temperature raise below 2 degreecompared with pre-industrialized level

2° C

IPCC TAR, 2001

GHG-475ppm

2100

2090

2080

2070

0年
Year

BaU

650
550
500
2060

0.0

52050

GHG: Greenhouse gases

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2040

1.0102030

GHG475ppm

152020

475

BaU

2010

2.020

2000650550500

3.0

Global GHG emissions

1990

BaU

Temperature rise
(global average)

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

4.0

25

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature rise(1990年=0.6℃)(above the気温上昇
pre-industriallevel)

5.0

年
Year

GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm•It is estimated that around 50% GHG
reductions in 2050 are required tocontrol temperature rise below 2oC•Japan may require more reduction (60-80%).
Other country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied(UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on).

GHG-650ppm•Impacts will
occur even in
2oC temp control.
•Adaptation isnecessary.
Calculated by
AIM/Impact[policy]
ModelPath toward Low Carbon Society, Japan400

CO2 emissions（Mt-C）

350

Forecasting
BaU case

300
250
200
150
10050

policy case

↓40% reduction↓60% reduction↓80% reduction

Backcasting

low carbon
society

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Energy Saving devices
Energy Supply change

Urban System Change
Industry Structure Change
Information Technology
Renewable energy
Consumption Behavior

Depict “Japan Low carbon society 2050”
What kind of demands/services,Japanese needs in 2050?

Depict living andworking style

Desired future: The society allows wider range of choice
Scenario A: Vivid, Technology-driven

Scenario B: Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

Considering global relationship, energy security, other environmental problems

We do research to depict various kinds of future
qualitative and quantitativeDepict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050PV on roof
3-4kW

LED light
Light eff=300%

Heat insulation
house60% reduction ofheat demand

10-20% reduction
Super highefficiency airconditioner
Fuel cellcogeneration

COP=8

Environment
Education
Eco-life Navigation
10-20% reduction

HEMS (HomeEnergy
ManagementSystem)

Stand-by energy
reduction
33% reduction
Efficient use
New energy

Hot water supply
by heat pump or
solar heating
COP=5
Infrastructure
Eco-lifestyleEnergy demand in residential（ Mtoe）

Energy demand in residential sector, 2050
coolingheating

hot water60

cookinglighting

others

32% reductions withHigh eff. insulation,
HEMS/Eco-life, etc 25% reductions

50with heat pump,
LED lighting,standby power
control, etc

4030
201002000

BaU

Option1

Option2

2050

2050

2050

Possible Energy Supply System for the Future

Supplier

Electricity
Storage

Renewables

Electricity

Grid elc
NuclearRenewables
Fossil fuelElectrolysis

H2

ConsumerFC
StationaryFC
Automobile

FC: Fuel Cell
CCS (CarbonCapture andStorage) Energy supply and demand model

Heat Pump
HeatTransportation
Energy Supply WG

Coal
Biomass
Solar/WindOil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Primary energy supply (Mtoe)
0100 200 300 400 500

6002000Hydrogen, Natural gas
with CCS, Nuclear
H2 and renewables

Demand side
energy-saving

Biomass

Supply side
countermeasures

Both supply side and demand side countermeasures
are required to achieve 70% CO2 reduction by 2050

Scenario,
Storyline

Transition Model

Snap shot model

Energy supply and demand balance
model (adjusting seasonal/daily energybalance of electricity, heat, andhydrogen supply and demandconsidering infrastructuredevelopment)
Energy technology bottom-up model (technology
selection of energy supply, conversion,
consumption using
econometric/engineering/management methods)

General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility,economic impacts considering generalequilibrium of approx. 40 services including
energy at service and labor market with supportof other models)

Trajectory

Passenger/Freight Transportation
demand model (parameter estimate oftrip generation, modal share using
statistics on person trip, traffic flow,
freight flow and others. Service
demand estimation assuming
technology and behavior change)

Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, andCost

Archive data set of Socio-economic change

Infrastructure/building dynamic model (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach forresidential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities)

Macro-economic model (econometric model for parameter estimate of supply-side potential
productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario)

Population dynamic model (cohort model including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration)

Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion

Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan,expert judgment)

Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario

Household production/Lifestyle model(identify effects of consumer behaviorconsidering change of age/type ofhousehold/ environment-oriented
preferences on energy service demand,transportation trip demand byeconometric methods and estimate
impacts of intervention scenarios)

Socio-economic value

Householdproduction/
Lifestylemodel

commercial
transportation

Building
Dynamic
model
Transportation
Demandmodel

industry

Total balance
check

Energy technology
bottom-up model

Macroeconomic
model

residential

Energy balance model

Population
dynamicmodel

Energy value

Infrastructure model (transportation, urban development
energy supply, and so on)

General equilibrium model

AIM Models for 2050 scenario development(AIM: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

Research project on Japan
Low-carbon society scenario

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

studied by 60 Japanese researchers
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportation
system

ICT-Society

Technology

Industrial
Structure

Kyoto protocol

2050

2040

2030

2020

2008
2010
2012

2000

Reduction
target3. Propose
Institution Management 2. Build visions of
GHG policy
Japan Low-carbon
to realize
Social systemsociety 2050
low-carbon Reform to introduce
society
countermeasures
1.GHG Reduction
Target Setting
1990

GHG emissions

Urbanstructure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Most of current
infrastructure rebuilt[FY2004-2006(+2years), Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Welcome toJapan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event

Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE)-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario AnalysisPanelists from 8 countries
Ms ZhuProf Shukla Fujino

Dr Sands

Organized by
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), JapanAll materials are available at
http://2050.nies.go.jp/2050sympo/cop11_side.htm

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
and Target

6US
5Canada
4UK

3

Germ any
M ETI, Japan
2030 scenario

2FranceJapan 2050scenario

W orldChina

2050

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

2040

IB1India0

Target forLow Carbon Economy

IA22030

11970

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

7

Japan – UK Joint Research Project
Developing visions for Low Carbon Society
through sustainable development
Objectives
1) Understand the necessity for drastic reduction of greenhousegas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve a Low Carbon Society(LCS) based on scientific findings, and to and disseminate thisunderstanding;2) Review country-level studies on GHG emissions scenarios;
3) Investigate pathways to achieve a LCS at country level in a
globally harmonized manner, which are composed of concrete
actions and innovations including both legal/social/ behavioral
systems and technological solutions;4) Identify bottle-necks, barriers and opportunities for achieving aLCS;
5) Contribute to the development of international cooperation
between researchers working towards a LCS; and
6) Share the images of a Low Carbon Society

Japan – UK Joint Research Project
Developing visions for Low Carbon Society
through sustainable development
Project Format(1)Organizations leading on the research
Japan: NIES
UK: UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research(2)International Workshops
The first international workshop will be held in Japan fromJune 14 to 16, 2006, involving researchers andgovernmental officials from about 20 countries, andinternational organizations. Prior to the workshop, apublic symposium will be held in Tokyo on June 13,
2006.
A second workshop will be held in 2007

Key messages
1.

Large amount of GHG reductions are required.

2.

Image of low carbon society is necessary toachieve drastic GHG reductions.

3.

Both supply-side and demand-side reductions arerequired. Model studies are necessary to findconsistent path toward 2050 low carbon economy.

4.

It’s time to action. It takes time to change socialsystem, infrastructure…

5.

We need further research collaboration with AsiaPacific countries, US and other countries.

Japan Low Carbon Society
Scenarios toward 2050
2050.nies.go.jp

JapanLow Carbon
Society 2050