Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Project: India Report

Presented byP R Shukla
Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2005

Presentation Agenda

1.

2.

3.

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Technology Database Development•

Energy Technology Transitions in India•

New and Renewable Technology Database•

Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy Program

AIM/CGE Model Development•

Model Data Inputs•

Energy and Environment Security in South-Asia•

South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios•

Model Results

APEIS Project Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE ProjectIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Technology Database Development•Energy Technology Transitions in India••

New and Renewable Technology Database
Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy
ProgramIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India: Population, GDP and Energy Trends

280

Electricity Consumption

Indices, Base:1980=100260

Energy consumption TPEC
GDP at factor cost

240
220
200

p.c.TPEC

180
160

Population

140120

Energy Intensity of GDP

100

Data Source: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and GoI Ministry reports

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

80

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy Transitions: Global & Indian
80%

Percentage of PEC

India
60%
No n-co mmercial
energy supply

40%
Co al &LIgnite
Oil

20%

100

Global90
Percentage of PEC

80

NuclearGas

Traditio nal
renewables

Hydro

0%
1953-54

70
Co al

60
50
40

Oil30

Co alGas

20
100
1850

Hydro
Nuclear

1900

1950

2000

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2001-02

Coal usage (in 1000 tons)

18000

10000

16000

9000

14000

8000
7000

12000

6000

10000

5000

8000

4000

6000

3000

4000

2000

2000

1000

Data Source: CSO, GoI and Indian Railways annual reports

2002-03

1994-95

1986-871978-7901970-71

0Electricity usage (GWH)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy Transition in Indian Railways

Renewable Energy Technologies (RET)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

RET Classification
Renewable Energy
Renewable fuelBiomass

Residues

Renewable heat

Renewable electricity

Stand alone

Grid-connected

Biomass

Energy crops

Residues

Biomass

Residues

Wind

Solar

Energy crops

PV

Energy crops

Decentralised

Biomass

Residues

WindPV

Centralised

PV

Solar thermal

Energy crops

WindBiomass

Residues

OnshoreOffshore

OnshoreOffshore

Energy crops

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, IndiaStage of RET Development in India

Stage of Market Development
Subsidy driven market

Developed markets

N. Fusion
HydrogenIndia’s energy demand

Scope/potential for contribution toPre - revenue

Biomasspower
WindPowerSolar PV

SmallHydro

BiofuelsSolarthermalGeothermal

Ocean
energyResearchDevelopment

Demonstration

Deployment

Mature Declining

Stage of Technology Development

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

MDG, India’s National Targets, Biomass and Climate Change
MDG and global targets

India’s National plan targets

Interface with Climate Change

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty andhunger

Double the per capita income by 2012Bio-energy can enhance rural
income, substitute oil imports andenhance mitigative & adaptive
capacity

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who sufferfrom hunger

Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
Contain population growth to 16.2% between
2001-2011

Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability

Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and
33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

Targets: Integrate SD principles incountry policies/ programs to reverse
loss of environmental resources

Sustained access to potable drinking water toall villages by 2007

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion ofpeople without sustainable access tosafe drinking waterElectrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources
Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007
and other notified stretches by 2012

Lower population reduces pressure
on land, water and energy
consumption
Enhanced sink capacity; energy
security due to substitution offossil imports; reduced pressure onland, resources and ecosystems
Better quality of life and adaptive
capacity due to access toelectricity, enhanced supply ofclean water, health & education inrural areas

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies
BIO-FUELS/ TECHNOLOGIESSolidLiquid(Separate Slide)

Wood(Electricity)
Gasifier

Agro-Waste

DirectCo-generation

Combustion(Sugar Mills)

Combustion (Processing)(Rice Mills, Plantations)Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies
Liquid BIO-FUELS

Diesel Engines

Bio-Diesel

Bio-Diesel
BlendsDiesel-Alcohol
Emulsions

Neat Bio-Diesel

Gasoline Engines

Gasoline-Alcohol
BlendsIndian Mission on Bio-diesel

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects• Plantation on 400,000 hectares of land
• Seed Collection• Oil Extraction• Transesterification• Blending• Marketing Phase II (2007-2012)• Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel• One hectare plantation likely to produce 3.75 MT of seed, yielding 1.2
MT of oil

Jetropha: Preferred Plant Choice
Jatropha Plantation in India

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Jatropha plant

Jatropha plantation on reclaimed desert using
sewage waste water in Middle East

Rural Employment, Environment and Energy Security

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Oil Extraction Plant

Rural Employment•

Large scale employment potential exists for
Jatropha plantation and seed collection andextraction.

•Seed yield of 4 Ton/Ha gives farmers Rs. 20000
income/ Ha/year from waste lands with support
price of Rs. 5 per kg of seed.

•

Energy security and environment benefits due toreplacement of imported fossil oil

Trial Runs: 5-10% Bio-diesel by Indian Railways

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Network for Biomass Technology/Fuel Deployment

OUTPUTSINPUTSLand markets

Surplus land fromfoodgrainssufficiency

Fertiliser
industry

Land

Fertiliser

Rural
unemployed &under-employed

Labour

Rural Financing
infrastructure

CapitalMachinery

RE technologies –solar, wind, fuelcells, bio-fuels etc

EnergyHouseholdlighting,cookingequipments

Social-economic setup-Animal waste-Human waste-Crop residues-Waste-wood-Forest produce-pipeline transport
network

Biomass
for power
Biomass fired
electricity
industry

Biomassfor GasBiomasspellets forburning

Community
lighting andequipments

Banking
industry

BIOMASS

Biomassliquid fuels
Transportation- personalvehicles- LCV, HCV

Farm auto,component
industry

Water
processing +equipments
industry

Water
conservation,
river linking

Water

Construction
and auto
industries

Roads, godowns,
heavy vehicles

Rural
infrastructure

BiomasswasteTechnology change-agricrop productivity-farm m/c efficiency-Biomass andbiotechnology R&D-fuel enduse efficiency

Setting upof localsmall scaleindustrybase
Hydrogenproduction

Farm equipment
water pump,tractor fuel, agri
processing

Fuel-cells

Fertiliser use infields +hand-madepaperIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Biomass Technology Future in Different ScenariosPenetration of Biomass in Electricity Sector
Scenarios
60550 ppmv
50

Capacity (GW)

40650 ppmv
30

20

Subsidy for Renewables

10IA2 (Reference)

02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/CGE Model Development for India••••

Model Data Inputs
Energy and Environmental Security in South-Asia
South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios
Model Results

Model Data Inputs

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India• I/O Table India 1999 (Source , CSO)
– 115 X 115 Commodities– Disaggregated Oil & Gas into Oil & Gas– Aggregated to 35 X 35 Commodities• 4 Energy Sectors / Commodities– Coal / Petroleum / Gas / Electricity• Emission Coefficients– Source: Garg & Shukla, 2002 and India’s Initial NATCOM to UNFCCC (2004)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy and Environment Security in South Asia
South-Asia Region• Among the fastest growing regions• Diverse geography, climate, energy resources,
politico-economic systems• High Fossil Dependence and Oil Imports• Environment Security Concerns

Country

Bangladesh
BhutanIndia

Dominant fuel incommercial energy
consumption

Non commercial
energy (as % of totalenergy consumption)

Gas (65%)

47%

Imported oil &coal
Coal (52%)

95%Energy Mix in India
Non-commercial
Energy

8%

1%

13%
43%

35%

44%
56%

Maldives

Imported oil

55%

Nepal

Oil (74%)

81%

Pakistan

Oil (55%)

33%

Sri Lanka

Oil (89%)

51%

35%
Coal
Natural Gas
NuclearCommercial
EnergyPetroleum
Hydroelectricity

South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios
What are the implications of South Asian regional
cooperation on carbon emissions?
Two Scenarios:• Scenario I : With Strong Regional Energy Co-operation• Scenario II: With Medium Regional Energy Co-operation

Regional Gas Markets

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Model Results – Static Case••

Model Calibrated
Initial Year (1998) Results validated with literature

Sector CO2 Emissions Share (1998)
SectorShare

CO2 (Million ton)

Electricity

38%

388

Manufacturing

42%

424

Other

7%

72

Transport

13%

135

100%

1020

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Scenarios to Analyze•What does South Asian Regional Co-operation mean to gas supply?
– Pipelines from Mayanmar / Bangladesh, Turkmenistan & Iran– Foreign Investments in LNG facilities– Long-term Gas Contracts•Assumptions– Higher co-operation enhances gas supply (cross country pipelines)– Higher co-operation reduces gas prices(Billion INR/ PJ)

1998

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Oil Prices

2.44

42

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.7

Reference Case

3.2

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.4

Strong Cooperation

3.2

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.2

Medium Cooperation

3.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

Gas Prices

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Reference Case Results

76GDPIndex (2000=1) .

5
Energy4Carbon32102000

2005

2010

2015
Years

2020

2025

2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Emissions Scenarios

3500

3000

Reference2500

CO 2 (Mt)

Medium Cooperation
2000

Strong Cooperation

1500

1000

500
02000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

APEIS & CAPaBLE Project Interface

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CAPaBLE Project
Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysisof Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities

APEIS Session was held at theCAPaBLE Workshop at ERI,
Beijing, September 6, 2005.