Thailand’s Low Carbon Land Transportation – The AIM/Enduse Modeling
Sujeetha Selvakkumaran and Bundit Limmeechokchai
111Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat UniversityScenario

METHODOLOGYINTRODUCTION

The modeling flow diagramof the transport model

The Thai land transport sector accounts for 60% of the oil consumed by energy
sectors and also contributes significantly to the CO2 emissions in Thailand.

Description

BAU

Business as usual scenarioCM

Includes counter-measures (CMs), free choice

LCS_Low

Low mitigation actions of LCS

Sedan_GSL_Ext
Sedan_GSL_New

OBJECTIVESLCSSEDAN_GSL_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_GSL_BAT1

GSL

Ambitious, yet realistic mitigation action levels

Sedan_GSL_BAT2
Sedan_GSL_BAT3
SEDAN_E10_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_GSL_TDM

The land transport sector of Thailand has been modeled along the divisions ofpassenger transport and freight transport.

LCS_High

Inspirational mitigation action levels

ERT30Emission reduction target of 30%, compared toBAU, in 2050

ERT40

Emission reduction target of 40%, compared toBAU, in 2050

ERT50

Emission reduction target of 50%, compared toBAU, in 2050

ET50Emission tax of 50 USD/t-CO2

ET100Emission tax of 100 USD/t-CO2

ET200Emission tax of 200 USD/t-CO2ET500

Emission tax of 1000 USD/t-CO2

Sedan_E10_Ext
Sedan_E10_New

E10

Sedan_E10_BAT1

Sedan_E20_Ext

Sedan_E10_BAT2

Sedan_E20_New

Sedan_E10_BAT3

Sedan_E20_BAT1

Sedan_E10_TDM

Sedan_E20_BAT2

E20

The CO2 emissions from the transport sector have been assessed for designed
LCS scenarios, along with mitigation driver scenarios, such as Emission
Reduction Target (ERT) and Emission Tax (ET).

SEDAN_E20_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_E20_BAT3
Sedan_E85_Ext

Sedan_E20_TDMSedan_E85_New
SEDAN_E85_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_E85_BAT1
Sedan_E85_BAT2

E85

Sedan_E85_BAT3
Sedan_E85_TDM
Sedan_DSL_Ext
Sedan_DSL_NewDSL

SEDAN_DSL_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_DSL_BAT1
Sedan_B5_Ext

Sedan_DSL_BAT2

Sedan_B5_New

Sedan_DSL_BAT3

Sedan_B5_BAT1

Sedan_DSL_TDM

Sedan_B5_BAT2
B5

RESULTS

Sedan_B5_BAT3

Scenario description

SEDAN_B5_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_B5_TDM
Sedan_B10_New
Sedan_B10_BAT1
B10

CO2 emissions of the scenarios across the modeling period

SEDAN_B10_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_B10_BAT2SEDAN_FLOW_CONTROLSEDAN_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_B10_BAT3

VAN_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_B10_TDM
TRICYCLE_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_B20_New

140,000

Private Passenger Travel

Sedan_B20_BAT1

120,000

B20

119,495

119,495

119,495

MOTORCYCLE_FLOW_CONTROLSEDAN_B20_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_B20_BAT2

SEDAN_B5_BUS

Sedan_B20_BAT3

TAXI_FLOW_CONTROLSEDAN_B10_BUS

Emissions - kton

Sedan_B20_TDM

Passenger Travel
SEDAN_B5_BUS

100,000

SEDAN_B20_BUS

Sedan_LPG_Ext

76,38380,000LPG

60,000SEDAN_HYBRID_BUS

SEDAN_LPG_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_LPG_NewOTHER_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_LPG_BAT1

SEDAN_ELY_BUS

Sedan_LPG_BAT2

SEDAN_RAPID TRANSIT

BUS_FLOW_CONTROL
Public Passenger Travel
TRAIN_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_LPG_TDM

59,56140,000RAPID
TRANSIT_FLOW_CONTROL

Sedan_CNG_Ext

20,000SEDAN_CNG_FLOWCONTROL

Sedan_CNG_New

CNG

Sedan_CNG_TDM
PICK_UP_FLOW_CONTROL

0

ROAD FREIGHT FLOW CONTROL

2010

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BLCM

LCS_LowLCS

LCS_High

2015
BL2020Tax 502025

2030
Tax 10020352040

Tax 20020452050

201020152020

BLTax 500

CM20252030
ERT 3020352040
ERT 402045

2050

TRUCK FLOW CONTROL

Freight Travel

ELY

ERT 50RAIL FREIGHT FLOW CONTROL

Fuel mix of the scenarios
30,000GSL

5,000

10,644

2,152
2020

2030

1,779

ELY

02010

2050

30,0009,818

E102030

GSL

5,000

GSL

4,029

LPG
2020

E85
E20

10,000

E20
E10

5,000

LPG

02010

E85

DSL

15,000

02010

2050

2020

2030

2050

LPG
ELY

60%
40%20%0%

30,000

B20

B20

B5
DSL
6,409
10,000E85

20,000E20

B515,000

DSL
E85

10,000

E20
5,355

GSL

3,709

LPG

2,172

ELY
02010

2020

2030

02010

2050

25,000
NON-MOTORIZEDERT502030DSL
10,000E85
7,089 E20
E105,000

1,33102010

GSL
LPG

2030

2050

E85

10,000E20
E105,000

GSL

LPG
1,39902010

NEC

LPG
ELY

2020

2030

2050

20,00025,000Private Passenger
TDM+Non motorized

Public Passenger

100%

NEC

80%
60%
40%20%
0%

B515,000

DSL
E85

10,000E20
10,548B10B515,000

DSL

E85
10,000E20E1010,539

1,773

LPG

GSL

5,000

LPG

ELY
2020

2030

2050

E10

1,76502010

2020

2030

ELY

Public Passenger

Public Passenger

20%0%

Private Passenger

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%0%

Private Passenger

TDM+Non motorized

B2020,000

GSL

5,000

Private Passenger

CNG

B1002010

0%40%

Public Passenger

TDM+Non motorized
100%
80%
60%
40%20%0%

NON-MOTORIZED

ET200

B20

ELY
2020

TDM+Non motorized

CNG

Energy - ktoe

B5B20

DSL

NON-MOTORIZED

25,000B1020%

60%

30,000

B2015,000

Private Passenger

B5E102050

ET100

CNG

CNG
B1015,000

9,737

30,000NEC

20,00020,000

ELY
2020

40%

80%

NEC

GSL

5,000

60%

TDM+Non motorized
100%

NON-MOTORIZED

B10E105,000

ERT40NEC
CNG

B1015,000

LCS_High

CNG

Energy - ktoe

20,00025,000

Passenger travel demand composition

NECEnergy - ktoe

25,00080%

Public Passenger

25,000

NON-MOTORIZED

Passenger travel demand composition

NON-MOTORIZED

Energy - ktoe

LCS

Private Passenger

TDM+Non motorized
100%

100%
80%

Public Passenger

Passenger travel demand composition

10,000E10

10,000

B5Private Passenger

Passenger travel demand composition

E20DSLB10

TDM+Non motorized

Public Passenger

TDM+Non motorized

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

2050

CONCLUSION
The mitigation potential of LCS scenarios is approx. 50%, in 2050, when compared tothe BAU and the make-up of the transport system also changes drastically, from private
centric to more public centric travel becoming popular.
The highest cumulative reduction of 1,344 Mt-CO2 is given by ERT50 scenario, followed
by LCS_High scenario with a cumulative reduction of 1,228 Mt-CO2. Yet, the interesting
point of analyses is the trend of CO2 emissions, which in the LCS_High scenario shows apeak around the 2030s and then shows decline.
The ET and ERT scenarios show mitigation of CO2, but they don’t show a drastic change
in the make-up of the transportation system of Thailand. They also show an increasingenergy consumption and emission trend, where as in the designed LCS scenarios, there
is visible decoupling between travel demand and CO2 emissions, which leads to a moresustainable transportation system, in the long term planning horizon.

Private Passenger

Public Passenger

Passenger travel demand composition

15,000B515,000

20,000Private Passenger

Passenger travel demand composition

E85

B10B20

Passenger travel demand composition

DSL

25,000
Energy - ktoe

Energy - ktoe

B520,000

NECCNG

B2020,000

B1013,954

LCS_LowCNG

B20

25,00030,000

NECCNG

30,000

Energy - ktoeCM25,000

Passenger travel demand composition

NON-MOTORIZEDNON-MOTORIZED

Passenger travel demand composition

NECBAU35,000

Energy - ktoe

35,000

NON-MOTORIZED

40,000

Energy - ktoe

NECPassenger travel demand composition

45,000RAIL FREIGHT FLOW CONTROL

0%

Public Passenger

TDM+Non motorized
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%0%

Transportation sector of Sri Lanka - apreliminary analysis
The Sri Lankan road transport sector is characterized by a dominant share of publicpassenger transport modes. In that respect it is different to that of the Thai transport
sector. Yet, with burgeoning economic development and more vehicles being on theroad, sustainability and energy consumption along with CO2 emissions will become aproblem.
Cars

Vans

Threewheelers

Motorcycles

Bus

OthersPick-ups

Trucks

Cars

Vans

Threewheelers

Motorcycles

BusOthers

Pick-ups

Trucks100%

100%

80%80%60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%0%

0%
2010 Number of Vehicles

2010 Travel Demand

2050 Number of Vehicles

2050 Travel Demand