IMAGE RCP2.6
Tokyo, September 2009
Detlef van Vuuren, Tom Kram

The probability to reach the 2°C target(Hare & Meinshausen, 2004)

 What would be needed toreach this target?

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

RCP 2.6
Peak in 2020/2025

40-50% reduction in 2050

Net negative for CO2 in 2100

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)regional

mitigation

IMAGE
modellingframework

Baseline(BL)0.5° grid
0.5° grid

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)(Magicc)
globalIMAGE 2.4
www.mnp.nl/image

RCP 2.6

NuclearBiofuels + CCS

Oil+CCS

Biofuels

OilRenewables

Natural gas+CCS

Coal+CCS

Natural gas

Coal Major changes in the global energy system
Default

BioEnergy +CCS (BECS

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

IMAGE 2.6
 Published in Climatic Change (2007), Energy(2007)
 Further review by IAMC
 Implemented in energy system model / physicalworld oriented IAM by cost-optimisation over time
reducing abatement costs (all gases, land use) Most important measures include energy efficiency,CCS, bio-energy + CCS… non-CO2, nuclear,renewables
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)Most information now
available at 0.5x0.5 degree

Forests
GrassDesert

Ice
TundraAgriculture
Ext. grassland

Bio-energy
C-plantation

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

IMAGE 2.6 “inspired” lot of
followers…
Table: Description of scenario literature on medium to low mitigation scenarios
Peaking year 2050
No. ofCumuative
Cumulative
scenarios
emissionemissions
2000-2050
2000-2100
I-85 to -40
27 (6)
220-370
220-415<2020(<2015)(-50)
II<2020-55 to -25
25 (18)280-430
385-485(-60 to -30)
III-30 to 25
79 (21)355-460
550-655<2040(<2030)
Note: Table account for the studies included in AR4, EMF-22, the ADAM project and theRao et al. (2008) study.

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

Questions based on being the lowest
Range of Scenarios published so-far
10120

9MES-A2R 8.5

100

MES-A2R 8.5

Emissions (GtCO2)

8060

AIM 6.04020

MiniCAM 4.5
IMAGE 2.90

Radiative Forcing (W/m2)

87
AIM 6.065

MiniCAM 4.5
4
IMAGE 2.9
IMAGE 2.632

IMAGE 2.61

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

201002000

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

20102000-20

Research question based on RCP2.6 (1/7)
Default

Biomass Nuclear No CCS No Bioconstraint constraint
CCS

No sinks Eff.
constraintYes

Yes

Yes

NoDefault

No BioCCS

No-CCS Eff.
A2 landconstraint use

Yes

2.9

3.5

2.9 W/m no BECS
Bio-energy
Natural gas
Oil
Coal

6
30

Netherlands Environmental Assessment1980
Agency(PBL)2010 2040
2070 2100

12

Storage (GtC/yr)

Storage (GtC/yr)

9NoNoIMAGE212No

2.9 W/m

3.232912Storage (GtC/yr)

 How manytechnologies canyou loose?
 Amount of CCS
feasible??

MESSAGE

632.6 W/m

296
3001980 2010 2040 2070 2100

1980 2010 2040 2070 2100

Research question based on RCP2.6 (2/7)
What can be achieved by nonCO2/forests/biofuels

 Lot of uncertainty for forestry – and little
integrated assessment
 For non-CO2 emissions reduction
potential still limited to around 50%.
 Biofuels : Estimates from 0-400 EJ/yr insustainable way

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)Is the experiment reproducible under
different climate cycle assumptions (3/7)

150

10050

Grey area
200 HadSCCC1 (range+average)
Red lines:
MAGICC-6(range+byaverage)
 Most low stabilisation runs
only done
Feedback (ppm CO2)

Feedback (ppm CO2)

200

PAGE
PAGE (10-90th)
IMAGE
MAGICC-4

150

small climate models (PNAS paper) IAMs currently advise
overshoot (den100C4MIP Elzen, 2007)… but how reversible therange+averagecarbon cycle?
50001900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

IMAGE at the low end of climate-carbon cycle feedback
All kinds of feedbacks related to tundra, ecosystem response, artic etc.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

When do countries need to reduce emissions (4/7)
 EMF-22: 2.6 W/m2 not feasible with strong delay inparticipation of developing countries(China/India/Brazil/Russia 2030-2050; Rest > 2050)
reduction below 1990 levels in Annex I

40%
2.6 Wm220%

2.9 Wm2

0%
0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
reduction from baseline in non-Annex I in 2020

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)Research question based on RCP2.6 (5/7)
The maximum speed of reduction
 How to achieve this?
 What is the maximum speed ofreduction (socially / politically)?
 Building global coalitions?
Rate of reduction in 10y periods in scenario literature What experience
do wehave from(% of 2000 emissions)earlier situations<500 ppm (CFCs,Ca.WTO,
550 ppm putting Ca. 650 ppm
Decrease
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Increase
the man Decreaseon the moon…)

12Occurance

84204020802100IMAGE2.6
IMAGE2.9
MES-B2-3

Avg. Max rate:
Avg. Rate:

-2.8%
-1.1%

MES-B1-2.8-12

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

-2%
-0.2%

%
2.2%

1.0%.2%-0%-1.4-2.6.8%-3.0%%
2.2-2.5%-0.6%-5%
1.0.2%.4%

-0%

-1%

-2.6%

-3.8-5.0%
-1.4%
-0.2%
1.0%
2.2%

-2.6-3.8

Azar 350-CCS%

Azar 350-BECS
Azar 350 NoCap-82060%-42020-5.002000

Is the IMAGE 2.6 too high or too low(costs and benefits) (6/7)?
Bill Nordhaus (2007)
The optimal policy
reduces the global
temperature rise
relative to 1900 to 2.8°C in 2100 and to 3.4°C in 2200.

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

Jim Hansen (2007):Based on climate modelstudies and the history of theEarth, the Hansen and Satoconclude that additional
global warming of about 1ºCor more, above global
temperature in 2000, is likely
to be dangerous.

Research question based on RCP2.6 (7/7)
Bringing impacts, adaptation and mitigation together
2oC

Agriculture
4oC

SLR Aiming to integrate
4oCimpact/adaptation
2oC
research better into the mainstream
assessment
 Organise these communities
 Couple it better to IA

5%

4oC

2oC

discounted GDP loss

4%

3%

residual damages
adaptation costs
mitigation costs

2%

More transparent, flexible
connection with CBA(keep risk approach /monetary approachconnected)
Make adaptation explicit

1%0%Reference

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adaptation andMitigation

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)