AIM/Local Model:
India Application
Manmohan Kapshe
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on
Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
October 24-26, 2002
IIM AhmedabadOverview¾ AIM/Local Model¾ India AIM/Local Application
 Large Point Sources (LPS) Area Sources¾ Sub-regional AIM/Local Application(Ahmedabad District)

IIM AhmedabadAIM/Local Model

IIM Ahmedabad

Introduction• Modeling the dilemma of providing energy servicesand protecting the environment in a local regionCO2, SO2, NOX
Acid precipitation
Air pollutants

Energy Technology

Energy Service DemandFeatures¾ Simplified Structure¾ Modeling local environmental constraints¾ Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures¾ Flexible model structure to cope with various

practical situation in different regions¾ GAMS programming¾ Separate representation of LPS and Area Sources¾ GIS Interface

IIM Ahmedabad

Methodology
Definitions

Parameters
Variables

Constraints

Service demand
Environmental target
Available energy supply
Linear programming

SolverOperating capacity
Maximum shares of technologies
Maximum exchange of stock
Objective Function

Total cost Æ minimum
IIM Ahmedabad

AIM-Local Database System
Sum of Valu e Energy_Device
Remo val
C K1
C K2
COL BLRYear
N ON
N ONNON
SFGD_bas e
4 ,700 ,00 0
1 ,300 ,000
24 ,528 ,00 0
1 995
4 ,700 ,00 0
1 ,300 ,000
24 ,528 ,00 0
1 996
6 ,000 ,00 0
26 ,134 ,53 3
1 997
6 ,180 ,00 0
27 ,624 ,83 4
1 998
6 ,365 ,40 0
29 ,010 ,70 7
1 999
6 ,556 ,36 2
30 ,301 ,83 6
2 000
6 ,753 ,05 3
31 ,506 ,41 8
2 0016 ,955 ,64 5
32 ,631 ,54 3
2 002
7 ,164 ,31 4
33 ,683 ,44 7
2 003
7 ,379 ,24 4
34 ,667 ,68 0
2 004
7 ,600 ,62 1
35 ,589 ,23 2
2 005
7 ,828 ,64 0
36 ,452 ,61 8

1,752,00 0
1,752,00 0
1,664,40 0
1,584,46 6
1,510,87 6
1,442,66 2
1,379,09 1
1,319,58 7
1,263,69 4
1,211,03 5
1,161,30 0
1,114,22 6

Input Filefor GAMS
AIM-Local
Database System

AIM-Local model
GAMS version

Output filefrom GAMS

GAMS
Input filefrom IDRISI

0.00
12.50
25.00
37.5050.00
62.50
75.00
87.50
100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50> =200.00

0.00
12.50
25.00
37.50
50.00
62.50
75.00
87.50
100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50>=200.00

0 .00
6 .25
1 2.50
1 8.752 5.003 1.25
3 7.504 3.75
5 0.005 6.25
6 2.506 8.757 5.008 1.25
8 7.509 3.75> =100.0 0

IDRISI32

IIM AhmedabadLarge Point Source and Area Source
SectorEmission by point
Large Point Source

Emission by Region

Emission by Region
and Sector
Area SourceSub-regional emissions are calculated as:
Emissions from LPS in the sub-region + Allocated Area Source Emissions
IIM AhmedabadStructure of AIM-Local Database
Energy service tech. (LT)& Air Pollution Control (P)Service

Service Demand(IJ)

Technology Selection
Module(AIM-Local GAMS ver.)- Energy Cons.(K L P T),- Service Supply (L J T)
- Fixed Cost (L P T)
- Removal Rate (L P T) etc.

Stock Quantity( L T0 )Share Potential(ILJT)

Energy Service Tech.(L T)
Air Pollution Control(P)StockShareTechnology

Subsidy(ILT)

Regulation( ME M T)

CountermeasureMaintenance etc.

( I LT )Operating Rate(ILT)
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emission
SO2/NO2 Emission(I LT)

Energy Price
Emission Factor(KT)

PerformanceTax( ME M T)

EnergyI : LPS or Area
L : Energy Device
P : Removal Porcess
J : Service
K : Energy
M : Gas (CO2, SO2, NO2)
T : Time
ME : Group on measure

Data requirements are similar to AIM/Enduse but more extensive, due
to LPS data and GIS information requirements
IIM Ahmedabad

What is GIS?
GIS is considered to answer the generic types ofquestions. These include questions about location,patterns, trends and conditions.
¾ Where are particular features found?
¾ What geographical patterns exist?
¾ Where have changes occurred over a given time

period?
IIM Ahmedabad

GIS Application¾ Capture location sensitivity¾ Layered information¾ Time slices¾ Integrating location and time
information in a consistent framework

IIM Ahmedabad

Delhi SO2 Emissions from Oil
0.035

SO2 (Million Ton)

0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
01900

1995

2000

High Speed Diesel

Gasoline

Kerosene

Light Diesel Oil

Aviation Turbine FuelOthers

Sulfur Coefficientdecrease from 1%
to 0.05% (byweight) for Diesel
over 1995-2002
has resulted in
substantial SO2emission
reduction in Delhi

IIM AhmedabadIndia AIM/Local Application

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2000
All India

LPS
Paper
3%

Power (Gas)3%

Cement
12%

Other
36%

Steel
20%
LPS Share
64%

Power (Coal & Oil)62%

IIM Ahmedabad

Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2000
All India

LPS
Paper Ind. Process
4%5%
Cement10%

Other
38%

Steel
22%
LPS Share
62%

Power (Coal & Oil)59%

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Database¾ LPS number increases in future¾ Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2¾ Indianised emission coefficients (to theextent possible)¾ Projections up to year 2030

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Coverage for India
SectorEnergyIndustrial
processes

Total

Sub-sectors
Power (coal & Oil)Power (natural gas)
Steel
Cement *Fertilizer
Paper
Sugar
Caustic Soda
H2SO4 manufacturing
Aluminium (Al)
Copper ore smelting (Cu)Lead ore smelting (Pb)
Zinc ore smelting (Zn)

LPS covered
2000 2010 2020

2030

821210853133281963
385311117169841382821644964131
2022
110
52
43
29
2366
51075150
2328
123
62
48
30
26
68
5
11
8
5382

457

523

587

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Locations
2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

Database Generation¾ Sectoral demand projections on the basis ofmacro-economic parameters Thirty year time series GDP
 Government projections
 Expert opinion¾ LPS demand on the basis of sectoral
demand elasticity and past production
trends¾ Demand over and above LPS capacities
assigned to Area Sources
IIM AhmedabadCO2 from Energy Sector LPS
2000
1800
1600
1400

Tg

12001000800600
40020002000

2010

2020

2030

Year
Pow er (Coal & Oil)Pow er (Gas)

Steel

CementFertilizer

PaperSugar

IIM AhmedabadCO2 from LPS
2000

2030

IIM AhmedabadCO2 Emission Distribution
2000

2030

Million Tons
05
1015
20
30
40

Million Tons
<33-66-9
9 - 1212 - 15
15 - 18
18 - 21> 21

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS contribution to CO2Largest LPS
1 to 25
26 to 100
101 to 200
All other LPS
Total LPS Share

Percentage CO2 Emissions
2000
2010
2020
2030
35.2
20.9
6.7
1.3

32.5
20.3
7.8
2.7

31
20.7
8.6331.5
20.8
8.7
3.9

64.1

63.3

63.3

64.9

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from Energy Sector LPS
5
4.5
4
3.5

Tg

32.5
21.5
10.5
02000

2010

2020

2030

Year
Pow erSteelCement

Fertilizer

PaperSugar

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from Industrial Processes LPS
0.4
0.35
0.3

Tg

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
02000

2010

2020

2030

Year
H2SO4

Copper (Cu)Lead (Pb)

Zinc (Zn)

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 from LPS
2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 Emission Distribution
2000

2030

Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15

Million Tons
< 0.010.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060> 0.060< 0.20

IIM Ahmedabad

Sub-regional AIM/Local
Application (Ahmedabad District)

IIM AhmedabadGujarat State & Ahmedabad District

Ahmedabad
Municipal area

Ahmedabad District
GujaratGujaratAhmedabad Dist.

Villages
18509
648

Taluka184
7

Area
Population
Sq. Km.
Thousands
196024 (3) 41310 (34)8707 (6)4802 (75)
IIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad District
71.60 E

730 E

Longitude

23.40 N

AhmedabadMunicipal Area

Viramgam

Latitude

SanandDehgam

Daskroi
Ahmedabad
CityDholka

Dhandhuka

21.90 NIIM Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad District Profile
TalukaAhmedabad City
Daskroi
DholkaDhandhuka
SanandViramgam
DehgamArea
Population Households
Sq. Kms. Thousands Thousands
292 (83) 3250 (99)629 (99)664 (5)338 (28)
68 (29)1788 (2)307 (26)
57 (25)2683 (4)252 (21)42 (22)791 (5)162 (16)30 (16)1714 (4)278 (22)54 (22)620 (4)214 (15)41 (15)

Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share

IIM Ahmedabad

LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad
Industry

LPS CoveredMajor Emissions

Chemicals Manufacturing

66

CO2 , SO2, NOxDyes Manufacturing

25

CO2, SO2

Others Industries

9CO2, SO2

Pharmaceuticals

2

CO2 , SO2, NOx

Steel Foundries and Fabrication

94

CO2, SO2

Textile Mills

4

CO2, SO2, NOx

Textile Processing and Dyeing

17

CO2, SO2

IIM AhmedabadCO2 Emissions
2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

SO2 Emissions
2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

Conclusions¾ Disjoint between future GHG and localemissions¾ LPS emissions continue to dominatenational emissions, thus providing focused
mitigation possibilities¾ AIM/Local a suitable tool for District/City
level emission analysis

IIM Ahmedabad