LCSs scenario
for China
Liu Qiang, Zhang Xiaoxi, Wang Yu
NIES, Tsukuba, 2008/10/28

Last year’s scenario• A harmonious and 'well‐off' society• The majority of the people living in cities, which are the hubsof industrial and social activities. Meanwhile, people living inrural areas also enjoy quality and convenient public services
and clean environment.
• Two scenarios for 2050: reference scenario andcountermeasure scenario.

Quantification of China Scenario in 2050
YearUnit2005

2050

Population

Mil.

1307.56

1577

HouseholdMil.

376.21585.742.96 Urban
4.08 Rural

2.5 Urban
3.5 Rural%

4380

Forestry area%

18.21

26

Access to Electricity%

98

100

Share of detached house%

50

20

Floor space of houses

m2/person

28.69

30

Floor space of offices

m2/person

67

Real GDPbn US $

2299.45

17552

Primary%

12.6

5

Secondary%

47.5

40

Tertiary%

39.9

55

Average familymembers
Land use
Urban Population rate

GDP Share of Industry

Residential sector
Last year:• We focused on the improvement on insulationof housing.
• According to the increase of urbanization,
biomass consumption will has a remarkabledecrease.
Result of energy consumption-50100150200250300

2005

2050(REF)

2050(CM)COLOILGA SBMS

S/WHeat

H2ELE350

Residential sector
This year:• We will continue to discuss the details of building insulation.
• We want to discuss about spread of all‐electric incountermeasure scenario.
• And a shift of energy consumption of warming. Gas has
already been used as a energy of warming instead of coal inBeijing. We assume that in 2050, 80% of household warming
will be supplied by gas.

Transportation sector
Last year:• We calculated that the demand for passenger transportation
will increase around 500% during the projected period.
• A great GDP increase and 21% population increase during the2005‐2050 period, mean dramatic increase in per capita
income and production, leading to big growth in freighttransportation demand.
• In CM scenario, we made the share of biofuel and H2 muchhigher than the reference scenario.

Transportation sector
Result of energy consumption-1020304050602005

2050 (CM)

2050 (Ref)

Passenger transportation

COLOIL-GA S100BMS

S/W

Heat

200300

H2400ELE

5006002005
2050(CM)
2050(REF)
COLOILGAS

BMS

S/WHeat

H2ELE

Freight transportation

Future points for LCSs
• Transportation sector• Building sector (Residential)

Transportation sector

Transportation sector

Transportation sector• Many new technologies appear and have potential to beintroduced driven by the policies and measures: LPG
vehicles, hybrid vehicles, fuel cell, etc• More restricted standard for fuel economy and tail gas
pollution control• Public transportation is encouraged by the government
and the infrastructure is enhanced: e.g. MRT increase very
fast in big cities• Transportation fuels:– Oil dominant but others increasing in share– Biofuel may take some percentage but face resource limitation

Transportation sector• High growth of passenger vehicles could be
expected in near future but how about far future?
• Different directions:– Increasing trend: Urbanization process– Increasing trend: enjoying the comfortableness andconvenience of cars along with higher income andconsumption pattern change– Reducing: willing to reduce the possession and use ofcars along with the energy price increase andenvironmental awareness risingBuilding sector• Main industry of China:– The building sector grown very fast in last 15 years and played an
important role in promoting the economy development.
– The total building area has attained to 42 billion M2, with the annual
growth rate of 23% during the period from 1990 to 2005
– The energy use in building sector has become one of key forces todrive the high growth of energy consumption in China in recent years.
– The share of building energy consumption in total primary energy
consumption has risen from about 10% in 1980s’ to 28% in 2005.

Building sector• Living area per capita
YearUrban

Rural

1995

16.3

21

2000

20.3

24.8

2001

20.8

25.7

2002

22.8

26.5

2003

23.7

27.2

2004

2527.9

2005

26.1

28.7

14

Building sector• Increasing energy consumption:– The building area will increase fast especially in near future: living
demand and urbanization process– Higher request on energy service along with the growth of living
standard: more air‐condition, expansion of heating regions• Decreasing energy consumption:– Energy efficiency improvement: building energy efficiency, applianceenergy efficiency– Policy stimulation and public awareness arising• How about degree can the effect of energy efficiency
improvement counteract the fast growth of building sector
and corresponding energy consumption and GHG emission

Interesting activities• Focus on TR and RES sectors: two main energy
consumers and GHGs emissions other thanindustry sector• Baseline scenario: Considering more factors, both
optimistic and pessimistic• More scenarios:– Combining the policies and measures of government
in baseline scenarios– Two alternative scenarios

Discussion points• Uncertainties of assumptions• Storyline:– Same result with diff. roadmap

High growtheconomyLow growtheconomyHigh energy
efficiency
improvement

Low energy
efficiency
improvement• How to deal with the inter‐linkbetween factors?
– Possibility of conflict assumption:
large behavior change but low
economy growth? one sector
change a lot but others remain
relative stable?

• Driving forces for LCSs: technologies
and policies• How to consider the investment
involved? Linking LCS with SD

Same energy
consumption
and GHGs
emission

Thank you!