Regional impact assessment in Japan:
Comprehensive Research on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation
Policies (S‐8 project)
1) Research Objectives
The objective of the S‐8 Project is to promote research in response to the new tasks describedabove concerning measures to cope with climate change. Firstly, this will involve the developmentof an advanced impact/adaptation assessment model (bottom‐up model) to obtain a more detailed
understanding of the physical and economic impacts by field as well as estimations of the effects ofimplementing adaptation measures, targeted at Japan. Concurrently, a nationwide top‐down impact
projection model will be developed, and used together with the bottom‐up model to further refine
nationwide impact assessments. Through these efforts, projections will be made regarding theextent to which future impact risks will be reduced by the implementation of adaptation measures.
Secondly, monitoring methods at the prefectural and municipal levels will be developed inorder to grasp climate change impacts at the prefectural level. Furthermore, by developing an
impact projection method that can readily be used at the regional level, and a method forvisualizing the results of projections, support for the formulation of adaptation measures inindividual regions will become possible.
Thirdly, based on the results of the research in Japan, in order to analyze the order of priority
and cost‐effectiveness of implementing adaptation measures elsewhere in the Asia‐Pacific region,indexes for the assessment of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation effects that are applicable todeveloping countries will be developed and standardized. This will contribute to the planning andimplementation of adaptation measures in those countries, where severer impacts are expected.
The S‐8 Project will serve as a foundation for the formulation of adaptation measures in Japanand assessment of the feasibility of realizing a safe and secure climate change‐adaptive society.
Moreover, the development of a simplified method for making quantitative impact assessments will
facilitate the presentation of comprehensive policy development plans for social implementation of
more concrete adaptation measures at the local government level. The assessment of vulnerability,impacts, and adaptive capacity in the developing countries is also of great importance from thestandpoint of contributing to international society. This project will strive to realize these aims bygathering researchers in a wide range of related fields in Japan and organically integrating theirefforts.

2) AIM’s research objectives in S‐8 project
Targeting the whole of Japan, the AIM’s research objective is to develop and improve an
integrated assessment model in order to assess levels of impacts and effects of adaptation

measures according to different climate stabilization levels and adaptation policies. Moreover,in collaboration with other research teams, we will develop a simplified climate change impact
estimation tool for use at the prefectural and municipal levels. Further, we will support thesystematization and development of methods related to climate and socioeconomic scenariosthat allow climate change impacts and effects of adaptation measures to be assessed in a form
that makes comparison and synthesis of each theme possible.

3) Expert perception on climate change risks and adaptation in agricultural system in Japan
The impacts of climate change have become obvious in Japan broadly these days, andagriculture and food production is one of the key fields recognized as a national issue with risks tobe dealt with. Japanese agriculture has faced challenges such as increasingly aging as long‐termmatters through recent globalization and Japanese social circumstances, and today it is facing
climate change impacts in addition. Scientific findings on climate change impacts have been
numerously provided so far, however, the prospective risks and risk management in a broader
context of current Japanese society and Japanese agriculture as national food supply system havenot been investigated in detail.
The objective of this study was to create the expert mental models with regard to the climatechange risks and its management from a broad spectrum of viewpoint in Japanese agriculturalsystem, covering scientific knowledge, and social, cultural and political dimensions. In the climatechange adaptation, building the risk communication and cooperation among concerned diversified
stakeholders is significant to encourage social or individual decision‐making and policymaking. In
this study, the structure of stakeholders will be analyzed based on expert perspectives. The
considerable factors, which obstruct or facilitate the risk management, adaptation, will be also
identified, such as the uncertainty included in currently available scientific knowledge.
We have conducted the individual interviews to 10 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climatechange impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on.
Based on the results and the latest scientific literature available for risk assessment as well, we are
currently designing a wide‐ranging expert knowledge‐based mental model. It will include clarified
relevant stakeholders and factors, which will facilitate or obstruct decision‐making or adaptation
practice. This study will contribute to the development of the adaptation strategies to climatechange risks in Japanese agricultural system.