johnthescone

IPCC’s Catalytic Role:Coordinating Scenarios Jointly with IAMC
IAMC Meeting, Tsukuba, September 15th, 2009

Professor Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer
Dr. Brigitte Knopf (PIK, TSU), Dr. Timm Zwickel (TSU)2

Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

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AR5 Run-up:
Bottom-up – Top-down Interaction
Based on the Memorandum of Common Understanding
from Oslo: www.ipcc-wg3.de/scenario-memo
Ideal, long-term approach:iterative process

request specific technology data

provide list with best-guess input data

Bottom-up
Community

run models & provide results

Top-down
Modellers

feedback on results regarding
feasibility, portfolio and costs

Goal: More realistic representation of policy space.

5Realistic Portfolio of Mitigation
Options?
ModelsMERGE

POLESREMIND

E3MG400 ppm

550 ppmbaseline.

TIMER

 with major role of renewables 400ppm can be achieved by all models
 very different strategies to reach low stabilisation

Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009)

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups7

Short- & Long-term Coordination of Scenarios• “Ideal” iterative process between bottom-up &top-down is too late for SRREN• A new coordination body is needed• The catalytic role of the IPCC requires acontinuous interaction between IAMC and IPCC
• At the SRREN Expert Meeting in Oslo a list ofmodelling topics were developed• For AR5 more model comparison exercises areneeded8

New Catalytic Role of IPCC

IPCC

IAMC
One Co-Chair ofeach IPCC WG

Coordination
Platform

9Role of IAMC as seen from IPCC perspective
The IAMC is the professional scientificbody for Integrated Assessment.
For IAMC it is important to:• have clear rules of participation• be transparent• be representative of scientific community

10Tasks of Coordination Platform• Discuss new challenges for AR 5
• Decide what scenarios are
required for AR5– IAMC communicates this to thescientific community• Sharing information

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

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AR5 Scenario Philosophy
Idea for the conceptualization of scenarios, whichshould be integrated in the IPCC scenario process

Baselines should be self-consistent

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AR5 Scenario Philosophy

14Costs & Other Problems of DelayWORLD
Luderer et al. 2009

DelayedFull

DELAY 2020
EU 2010, others 2020
Annex I 2010, others 2020
IND+CHN+Annex I 2010
all 2010$/tCO2 (2005 US$)infeasible formost models

Full

DelayedFull

DelayedMeans of Participation

Scenarios that could not bemodelled under criteria of study
EMF (2009) Overview of EMF 22 International Scenarios

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Limited Availability of Technologies
WORLDFAll options for 450 ppm-only
No CCSNo biomass beyond its use in the baseline
No renewables beyond its use in the baseline
No nuclear beyond its use in the baseline
No CCS, no nuclear beyond its use in the baseline
RECIPE: Model Comparison - Luderer et al. (2009)Are Feed-in-Tariffs the most efficient way toincrease Renewable Capacities?
In Germany the Renewable Energy Law(Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG)
greatly increased capacities. What is theinteraction with Emission Trading?
Renewable energies [TWh]Solar

new EEG
EEG

Wind
StrEG

Novelle BauGB
Biomass
Hydropower

1990

1995

BMU: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen (2008)

2000

2005

2008

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AR5 Scenario Philosophy

ex-post storyline

Ex-post clustering of scenarios defines a storyline for each cluster.
Clustering is essential to derive policy relevant messages.

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

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IPCC Wish List
Emerged from SRREN Expert Meeting on Scenarios
Issues to be covered by modellers:• Limited availability of technologies• Uncertainty• Delayed participation• Bottom-up & top-down integration• Hindcasting• Timing of policy instruments• Multiple policy instruments for multiple market failures(“price-only-crowd” vs. “technology policy is needed”)

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

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Upcoming Scenario Meetings
IAMC Scenario Meeting
February 2010 @ Washington D.C

IPCC SRREN 2nd Scenario Expert Meeting
Spring 2010
Possibly back-to-back to 3rd SRREN LA Meeting
Early March 2010 @ Oxford, UK

IPCC AR5 Scenario Workshop
2010 Joint WG II – WG III
TBC at next IPCC plenary in Bali

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Table of Contents• Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo• Catalytic Role of IPCC
• Scenario Philosophy• Portfolio of Scenarios• Upcoming Scenario Meetings• AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

AR5 Run-up:
WG II – WG III Interaction
WG III / WG II Scenario Workshop:
Discuss details of scenarios space
WG III:
Assess scenarios (e.g. 2nd best)
provide emission scenarios

WG II:
Analyse impact

WG III / WG II:
Describe ex-post storylines23

AR5 Run-up:
Vulnerability – Adaptation Interaction... organized by TGICA (Task Group on Dataand Scenario Support for Impact and ClimateAnalysis ) in collaboration with IAV (Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability) community.

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AR5 Run-up:
Noordwijkerhout Timeline

Current Phase

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AR5 Run-up:
Preliminary AR5 Timeline TBC at Next IPCC Plenary (Bali)
4/20116/20112/20124/20129/2012
12/20125/20138/20132/20143/20146/2014WG II: LA1
WG III: LA1
WG II: LA2
WG III: LA2
WG II: LA3
WG III: LA3
WG II: LA4
WG III: LA4
WG II Plenary
WG III Plenary
IPCC Plenary Synthesis Report

Papers should be accepted for publication
before 5/2013 (WG II) and 8/2013 (WG III) tobe included in AR5 TOD (Third Order Draft).

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Almost Final Remark
The IPCC is the honest broker between
experts and decision makers in business,
politics and civil society.
The IPCC should be policy relevant without
being policy prescriptive.