TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS
Crash • Stats

DOT HS 812 703

A Brief Statistical Summary

April 2019

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for theFirst 9 Months (Jan–Sep) of 2018
Summary

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first 9 monthsof 2018 shows that an estimated 27,100 people died in motor
vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decrease of about 2
percent as compared to 27,663 fatalities that were reported tohave occurred in the first 9 months of 2017, as shown in Table 1.
The third quarter of 2018 represents the sixth consecutive yearto-year quarterly decline in fatalities since the second quarterof 2017, also shown in Table 1. Preliminary data reported by theFederal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) in the first 9 months of 2018 increased

by about 6.2 billion miles, or about a 0.3-­percent increase. Also
shown in Table 1 are the fatality rates per 100 million VMT,
by quarter. The fatality rate for the first 9 months of 2018
decreased to 1.12 fatalities per 100 million VMT, down fromthe 1.15 fatalities per 100 million VMT in the first 9 monthsof 2017. The actual counts for 2017 and 2018 and the ensuing
percentage change from 2017 to 2018 will be further revisedas the final FARS files for 2017 are available next year. Theseestimates may be further refined when the projections for thewhole of 2018 are released in late March 2019.

Table 1: Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Quarter, First 9 Months, and the Percentage Change From the Corresponding
Quarter or First 9 Months in the Previous Year
Quarter
2007200820092010
201120122013
2014
2015
2016
20172018†
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018†

1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Total(Jan–Mar)(Apr–Jun)(Jul–Sep)(Oct–Dec)(Full Year)
Fatalities and Percentage Change in Fatalities for the Corresponding Quarter From the Prior Year
9,354
10,611
11,056
10,23841,2598,459 [ -9.6%]
9,435 [-11.1%]
9,947 [-10.0%]
9,582 [ -6.4%]
37,423 [ -9.3%]
7,552 [-10.7%]
8,975 [ -4.9%]
9,104 [ -8.5%]
8,252 [-13.9%]
33,883 [ -9.5%]
6,755 [-10.6%]
8,522 [ -5.0%]
9,226 [ +1.3%]
8,496 [ +3.0%]
32,999 [ -2.6%]
6,726 [ -0.4%]
8,227 [ -3.5%]
8,984 [ -2.6%]
8,542 [ +0.5%]
32,479 [ -1.6%]
7,521 [+11.8%]
8,612 [ +4.7%]
9,171 [ +2.1%]
8,478 [ -0.7%]
33,782 [ +4.0%]
7,166 [ -4.7%]
8,207 [ -4.7%]
9,024 [ -1.6%]
8,496 [ +0.2%]
32,893 [ -2.6%]
6,856 [ -4.3%]
8,179 [ -0.3%]
8,799 [ -2.5%]
8,910 [ +4.9%]
32,744 [ -0.5%]
7,370 [ +7.5%]
8,823 [ +7.9%]
9,805 [+11.4%]
9,486 [ +6.5%]
35,484 [ +8.4%]
9,563 [ +8.4%]
10,078 [ +2.8%]
10,011 [ +5.5%]
37,806 [ +6.5%]
8,154 [+10.6%]
8,272 [ +1.4%]
9,392 [ -1.8%]
9,999 [ -0.8%]
9,470 [ -5.4%]
37,133 [ -1.8%]
8,100 [ -2.1%]
9,250 [ -1.5%]
9,750 [ -2.5%]——
Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
1.31
1.35
1.41
1.37
1.36
1.22
1.25
1.33
1.32
1.26
1.09
1.16
1.17
1.12
1.15
1.11
0.98
1.09
1.18
1.14
0.98
1.09
1.18
1.17
1.10
1.08
1.12
1.21
1.16
1.14
1.04
1.07
1.17
1.15
1.10
0.99
1.03
1.11
1.17
1.08
1.03
1.08
1.20
1.21
1.15
1.11
1.16
1.23
1.27
1.19
1.12
1.12
1.20
1.18
1.16
1.09
1.10
1.17
——

†
2018 statistical projections and rates based on these projections.
VMT: FHWA September 2018 Traffic Volume Trends for 2017 & 2018 VMT.

Figure 1 shows the historical trend of the percentage change
every quarter from the same quarter in the previous year,
going back to 1976. NHTSA has fatality data going back to
1975, and the shading in the chart depicts the years during
which there were significant numbers of consecutive quarters
with increases/declines as compared to the corresponding
Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		1st 9 Months(Jan–Sep)
31,021
27,841 [-10.3%]
25,631 [ -7.9%]
24,503 [ -4.4%]
23,937 [ -2.3%]
25,304 [ +5.7%]
24,397 [ -3.6%]
23,834 [ -2.3%]
25,998 [ +9.1%]
27,795 [+6.9%]
27,663 [ -0.5%]
27,100 [ -2.0%]1.36
1.26
1.14
1.09
1.09
1.14
1.09
1.05
1.11
1.17
1.15
1.12

Source: Fatalities, 2006–2016 FARS Final File, 2017 FARS Annual Report File.

quarters of the previous years. The declines during the early
1980s and 1990s lasted 11 consecutive quarters, while the mostrecent decline occurred over 17 consecutive quarters ending
in the second quarter of 2010. Also, more recently, a significant
increase in fatalities occurred over 10 consecutive quarters
ending after the first quarter of 2017.
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220%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%

1981 Q2 to 1983 Q4(11 Quarters)

1990 Q4 to 1993 Q2(11 Quarters)

2006 Q2 to 2010 Q2(17 Quarters)

2014 Q4 to2017 Q1(10 Quarters)
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

% Changes

Figure 1: Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter as Compared to the Fatalities in theSame Quarter During the Previous Year

Discussion

NHTSA is continuing to gather and finalize data on crashfatalities for 2017 and 2018 using information from police
crash reports and other sources. It is too soon to speculate
on the contributing factors or potential implications of any
changes in deaths on our roadways. The final data for 2017,as well as the annual file for 2018, will be available in late fall
2019, which usually results in the revision of fatality totals
and the ensuing rates and percentage changes. NHTSA has
reported that the significant increase in fatalities in 2016 wasprimarily driven by increases in pedestrian, motorcyclist, andpedalcyclist fatalities (2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, Report No. DOT HS 812 456).
From 2012 to 2014, since recording a significant increase of 11.8
percent during the first quarter of 2012, the magnitude of theincreases steadily declined during each subsequent quarter.
Fatalities are reported to have increased by about 4.7 percent
in the second quarter, and by about 2.1 percent in the third
quarter of 2012. Subsequently, beginning with the fourth
quarter of 2012, fatalities have declined in seven out of eightquarters (2013 Q4 was a slight increase) until the 4.9-percent
increase reported for the fourth quarter of 2014. Fatalities
increased 10 consecutive quarters beginning with the fourth
quarter of 2014, until the 1.8-percent decline seen in the second quarter of 2017. The fatalities and the fatality rates forthe second, third, and fourth quarters of 2017 are lower thanthose for the corresponding quarters in 2016. In addition, both
fatalities and the fatality rate in the first 9 months of 2018 areprojected to have decreased as compared to the first 9 monthsof 2017.

Data

The data used in this analysis comes from several sources:
NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), Fast-FARS (FF), and Monthly Fatality Counts (MFC); and fromFHWA’s VMT estimates. FARS is a census of fatal trafficcrashes in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and PuertoRico. To be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motorvehicle traveling on a trafficway and must result in the deathof at least one person (occupant of a vehicle or a nonoccupant)within 30 days of the crash. FARS final files from January 2003
to December 2016 and the 2017 FARS Annual Report File wereused. The FF program is designed as an Early Fatality Notification System to capture fatality counts from States more
rapidly and in real time. It aims to provide near-real-time
notification of fatality counts from all jurisdictions reportingto FARS. The MFC data provides monthly fatality counts byState through sources that are independent from the FastFARS
or FARS systems. MFCs from January 2003 up to August 2018
are used. MFCs are reported mid-month for all prior monthsof the year. In order to estimate the traffic fatality counts forthe first half of 2018, time series cross-section regression wasapplied to analyze the data with both cross-sectional values(by NHTSA Region) and time series (by month), to model the
relationship among FARS, MFC, and FF, the details of which
are available in a companion Research Note. The methodology
used to generate the estimates for the first 9 months of 2018 is
the same as the one used by NHTSA to project the decreasein the fatalities for the whole of 2017 (Early Estimates of Motor
Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2017, Report No. DOT HS 812 542).

Suggested APA format citation for this document:
National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2019, April).
Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first
9 months (Jan–Sep) of 2018 (Crash•Stats Brief ­StatisticalSummary. Report No. DOT HS 812 703). Washington,
DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
For questions regarding the information presented in thisdocument, please contact NCSArequests@dot.gov. Internet users may access this Crash•Stats and other general
information on traffic safety at www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/CATS/index.aspx.

Published by NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis		

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