2012 AIM International Workshop

How to Develop National Low-Carbon Scenarioswith AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
Feb. 17th, 2012
Michiko Namazu
Urban and Environmental
Engineering, Kyoto University1

Background and Outline of study• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction = global challenge• World target: 50% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050
•  Individual targets and actions for every countries, especially Asian
countries with rapid economic growth
RegionDetailChina
China•  feasibility of the targets and actions
India
India
•  economic effects from the targets and actions
Indonesia
Indonesia

The target of this study

Provide a platform where national andinternational researchers are able todevelop scenarios toward Low Carbon
Society interactively.
• Target regions: Asian 15 regions• Model : AIM/CGE Basic Country model• Reflecting scenarios and information fromnational levelJapan
Japan
Korea
Korea
Malaysia
Malaysia
TaiwanTaiwanThailandThailand
VietnamVietnamSingapore
Singapore
Philippines
Philippines
Other East Asia North Korea, Mongolia
Other South
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka,
Asia
Pakistan, Bhutan,
Maldives, Nepal
Other South
Brunei Darussalam,
East Asia
Timor-Leste, Cambodia,Laos, MyanmarFiji, Papua New Guinea,
Oceania
Solomon Islands,Vanuatu, Kiribati, Nauru,Tonga, Tuvalu, Samoa, FS
Micronesia, Marshall
2Islands, PalauAIM/CGE Basic Country Model• CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model• Economic model• Fundamental idea: supply = demand, balanced by price mechanism• Maximization problem:
household = utility maximization, enterprise = profit maximization• Whole social structure is described with consistence• AIM/CGE Basic Country Model• A model developed by Dr. Fujimori based on Standard CGE model (IFPRI)• Recursive dynamic (one year step), and one region (country) model• 36 industrial sectors, and 23 commodities• Detailed power generation sectors:
Coal fire, Gas fire, Oil fire, Hydro, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Biomass• Base year = 2005, Social accounting matrix + energy balance table• GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), GHG constraint• Reduction measures: Carbon tax, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology,
Renewable energy, Emission trading etc…
3

AIM/CGE Basic Country Modeltax
incomevalue
addedresourceenergygoodstax

Intermediate
input

activities

productstax

products

elementexpenditure
Total
tax

Leo
institution
incomehouseholdincomegovernment
incometax
institution

tax
household

Government

invest/savinghouseholdexpenditure

government
expenditure

rest ofthe worldtransfer

Leo
goods

trade
cost

CES
Total
domestic
products

rest oftheworld

export
tax

tax

goods

domestic
supplyimportcomposedcommodity
tax
CES

goods

domestic
demand4

GHG Emissions Reduction Targets• World GHG Reduction Target• 50% reduction of GHG emission in 2050 from 1990 levels• How to distribute the target? (Burden sharing)• Emissions per capita is equal all over the world• Emissions per GDP is equal all over the world• And so on..
• Some countries have national reduction targets• E.g.) Japan: 25% reduction by 2020 from 1990 levels…
might be changed because of the earthquake
In this study..

• Emissions per capita is equal all over the world in 2050
• Regions with individual target in 2020 will achieve their targets• All regions start reducing emissions from 2020 toward world
halving target

5

GHG constraint
GHG emission reduction target(GHG emissions per capita)
14

Taiwan
Malaysia

12

Korea

Singapore
Other South
East Asia
IndonesiaThailand
China
Other East Asia
Oceania

GHG emissions (ton of CO2 equ.)

Japan
10864

VietnamPhilippines
India
Other SouthAsia

202005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total GHG Emissions
Change (2050/2005, %)
China
▲ 66
Indonesia
▲ 60
India
60
Japan
▲ 84
Korea
▲ 82
Malaysia▲ 70
Philippines
89
Singapore▲ 71
Thailand▲ 64
Vietnam▲4Tiwan▲ 85
Other East Asia
▲ 52
Oceania20
Other South127
Asia
Other South▲ 72
East Asia
6How to Develop National Low-Carbon Scenarioswith AIM/CGE Basic Country Model
Trial Application for India and China

7India <situation>• India’s GHG emissions reduction targets:• 20-25% reduction of CO2 Intensity (CO2/GDP) in 2020 from 2005 levels• Calculated GHG emissions reduction target in 2050: 60% increase from2005 levels• Socio-economic projections have a wide range among scenarios
2050 GDP scenario
40GDP (Bil. 2005USD)

3530
2520
1510508

India <scenario setting>
SLCS scenario

SSTAG scenario

population

UN population prospect 2010

Target GDP

Modest GDP growth(6.5%/yr)

Lower GDP growth(5.5%/yr)Target GDP
Primary: 10%, Secondary: 20%, Tertiary: 70%
share (in 2050)

Reference scenario
Rapid GDP growth (78%/yr)
Primary: 5%,
Secondary: 45%,
Tertiary: 55%

GHG reduction 2020 target: reduction of GHG intensity by 23% from 2005 levels
target2050 target: reduction of GHG emission by 50% from 1990 levels
GHG reduction CCS technology is available from 2020. Renewable energy cost decrease.
measureEnergyAutonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement; Coal 3%/year, Oil 2%/year,Gas 1%/year, Electricity 1%/year*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting9India <results>
GHG emissions (Mton of CO2 equ.)14,00012,00010,0008,000
6,000

GHG emissions

REF:-71%

BaU_REF

SLCS:-60%

BaU_SLCSBaU_SSTAG
CM_REF

SSTAG:-41%

CM_SLCS
CM_SSTAG

4,000
2,00002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

SLCS
SSTAG
REF

Carbon Price in 2050
(2005USD/ton of CO2 eq.)

GDP Loss in
2050 (%)

9167
164

2.12
1.60
2.73

BaU: without GHG reduction targets
CM: With GHG reduction targets
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐵,2050 − 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐶𝐶,2050
× 100
10𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐵,2050

China <situation>• China’s GHG emissions reduction targets:• 40-45% reduction of Intensity (CO2 emissions/GDP) in 2020 from 2005 levels• Calculated GHG emissions reduction target in 2050: 66% reduction from2005 levels• A number of socio-economic scenarios from international and domesticorganizations
2050 GDP scenario
5.00E+04
4.50E+04
4.00E+04

mil. 2005USD

3.50E+04
3.00E+04
2.50E+04
2.00E+04
1.50E+04
1.00E+04
5.00E+03
0.00E+00

Yellow: scenarios from domestic institutions, Blue: scenarios from international institutions

11China <scenario setting>
SLCS scenario
Population
Total GDPREF scenario

UN population prospects 2010
6.3%/year

5.0% /year

6.7%/year

While tertiary industry
increases the share, still
secondary industry
plays an important role.

Similar to current
developed country.
Tertiary industry is themain industry.

Coal: 2%/year, Oil:
Coal: 4%/year, Oil:3%/year, Gas: 2%/year, 1%/year, Gas: 0%/year,Electricity: 1%/year
Electricity: 3%/year

Coal: 5%/year, Oil:4%/year, Gas: 1%/year,Electricity: 5%/year

GDP structure Similar to current
developed country.
Tertiary industry is themain industry.
EnergySSTAG scenarioRenewable
Wind, photovoltaic, geothermal, biomass power cost decrease
Cost Decrease
GHG
constraint

43% reduction of GHG intensity from 2005 levels by 2020
66% reduction of GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2050

*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting

12China <LCS action>
LCS action
Transport

Increase of public transport share, transport energy
efficiency improvement, transport efficiency improvement

Renewable
Power

Additional cost decrease of renewable energy (1.1%
additional decrease of solar photovoltaic cost, 0.7%
additional decrease of solar photovoltaic cost)

EnergyIntensive
IndustryLess output of energy intensive products resulted fromdematerialization, efficiency improvement (Iron and steel,cement, paper and pulp etc..)

EnergyAdditional Energy Efficiency Improvement (1%/year
additional energy efficiency improvement for Coal, Oil, Gas,Electricity)

CCS

CCS technology is available from 2020

*More detailed information of this setting is available in individual meeting13

China <results>
SLCS:
-90%

25,000GHG emissions (ton…

GHG emissions (ton of CO2 eq.)

30,000GHG emissions

20,00015,00010,0005,000

30,000BaU_SLCS
25,000BaU_SLCS
20,000BaU_SSTAGBaU_SSTAG
15,00010,000
BaU_REFBaU_REF
5,0000
CM_REF
CM_REF2
CM_SLCS0
CM_SLCS
012345
CM_SSTAG
CM_SSTAG
50SSTAG:
-84%

REF:
-82%0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

SLCS
SSTAG
REF
without with LCS without with LCS without with LCS
LCS action action LCS action action LCS action action
Carbon Price in 2050
(2005USD/ton of CO2 eq.)
GDP Loss (%) in 2050

1053

628535297745

466

17.87

3.30

8.74

-1.10

10.46

2.01
14China <GHG reduction measure>
CM_SLCS

CM_SSTAG

30,00018,00016,00014,00020,000

Mt CO2-eq/year

Mt CO2-eq/year

25,00015,00010,00012,00010,000
8,000
6,000
4,000

5,000

2,000
00

CM_REF
Non-energy
GHG
CM_SLCS

18,00016,00012,00010,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

Mt CO2-eq/year

Mt CO2-eq/year

14,000Landuse30,000Enduse_activity_level25,000Enduse_structure
Enduse_efficiency
20,000Enduse_fuel_switch
15,000Electricity_demand
10,000Power_efficiency
Renewable
5,000
Nuclear
0CCS
Emission

15For further study• This study is underway• Application to China, India and Japan has started, andapplication to the other regions will coming soon
• We would like to get some comments and advice fromprofessionals in target countries/regions

The target of this study

Provide a platform where national and international
researchers are able to develop scenarios toward Low Carbon
Society interactively.

16Thank you for your attention!
If you have any questions, please contact meMichiko Namazu
E-mail: namazu.michiko.22m@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp
Namanama1030@yahoo.co.jp

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