本田財団レポート No.112
第２６回本田賞授与式 記念講演（２００５年１１月２５日）「社会的要請にこたえるロボット工学と知能システム」
カーネギーメロン大学
コンピュータサイエンスアンドロボティクス教授（モザービントナッサーユニバーシティプロフェッサー）ラジ・レディ博士

Robotics and Intelligent Systems
in Support of Societal Needs
Commemorative Lecture
at the Twenty-Sixth Honda Prize Awarding Ceremonyon the 25th November 2005 in Tokyo

Dr. Raj Reddy
The Mozah Bint Nasser University Professorof Computer Science and Robotics at Carnegie Mellon University

財団法人

本田財団

ラジ・レディ博士
カーネギーメロン大学
コンピュータサイエンスアンドロボティクス教授（モザービントナッサーユニバーシティプロフェッサー）The Mozah Bint Nasser University Professor of Computer
Science and Robotics at Carnegie Mellon University

Dr. Raj Reddy■Personal History■略歴1937 年

インドに生まれる

1937

Born in India

1958 年

マドラス大学（インド）卒業

1958

1960 年

オーストラリア・ニューサウスウェールズ大学
修士課程終了BE degree from the Guindy Engineering College of the
University of Madras, India

1960

1966 年

米国・スタンフォード大学 コンピュータサイエ
ンス専攻 Ph.D

MTech degree from the University of New South Wales
Australia

1966

Assistant Professor of Stanford University

1969 年

カーネギーメロン大学助教授

1969

1973 年

同大学

コンピュータサイエンス部教授

Carnegie Mellon faculty as an Associate Professor ofComputer Science

1979 年

同大学

ロボット工学研究所初代所長

1973

1984 年

同大学教授

Carnegie Mellon faculty as a Full Professor ofComputer Science

1991 年

同大学

コンピュータサイエンス部部長

1979

2005 年

モザービントナッサーユニバーシティプロフェッサー

Carnegie Mellon University Director of the Robotics
Institute

1984

Carnegie Mellon University Professor

1991

Carnegie Mellon University Dean of School ofComputer Science

2005

The Mozah Bint Nasser University Prosessor■受賞歴（1984 年以降）
1984 年 仏ミッテラン大統領よりレジオンドヌール勲位授与
1991 年 ＩＢＭよりサーチ・ラルフ・ゴモリーフェロー賞
1994 年 アメリカ計算機学会（ＡＣＭ）チューリング賞■Awards (1984~)
1984

The Legion of Honor by President Mitterand of France

1991

The IBM Research Ralph Gomory Fellow Award

1994

The ACM Turing Award

印スリ・ヴェンカテスワラ大学、

2001

Padma Bhushan by President of India

仏アンリ・ポワンカレ大学、

2004

Okawa Prize

2001 年 インド大統領よりパドマブシャン（最高栄誉賞）
2004 年 大川財団より大川賞

豪ニューサウスウェールズ大学、He has been awarded honorary doctorates from SV University
in India, University Henri-Poincare in France, University of
米マサチューセッツ大学、英ワーウィック大学、印アンナ大学、 New South Wales in Australia, Jawaharlal Nehru
インド情報技術大学(アラハバッド)の各大学より名誉理学博士号
Technological University in India, University of
Massachusetts in USA, University of Warwick in England,
Anna University in India and the Indian Institute for
information Technology (Allahabad). He serves on the Board■会員歴of Governors of Peres Institute for peace in Israel.
z 電気エレクトロニクス・エンジニア協会■Professional honors
z アメリカ音響学会フェロー
zFellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics
z アメリカ人工知能学会（会長就任：1987‑1989）
Engineersz アメリカ国立工学アカデミー会員
zFellow of the Acoustical Society of Americaz アメリカ芸術・科学アカデミー会員
zPresident of the American Association for Artificial
Intelligence from 1987 to 89.
z 米国大統領情報技術諮問委員会共同委員長（1999−2001）z
Member of the National Academy of Engineeringz イスラエル・ペレス平和センター執行委員会役員
zMember of the American Academy of Arts and ScienceszCo-chair of the President's Information Technology Advisory
Committee (PITAC) from 1999 to 2001
zBoard of Governors of Peres Institute for Peace in Israel
印ジャワハーラル・ネルー工科大学、

このレポートは、平成 1７年（200５年）11 月２５日
ものです。

ホテルオークラにおいて行われた第 2６回本田賞受賞記念講演の要旨をまとめた

25 November 2005 Hotel Okura,Tokyo

Robotics and Intelligent Systems in Support of Society
Raj Reddy
Carnegie Mellon University
Abstract:
Over the past 50 years there has been extensive research into robotics and intelligent systems.
While much of the research has been targeted to solving specific technical problems, advancesin these areas have led to systems and solutions that will have profound impact on society. This
talk provides several examples of the use of such eco-technologies in the service of humanity,in the areas of robotics, speech, vision, human computer interaction, natural language
processing, and artificial intelligence.

Technology Trends:
Underlying most of the advances in Robotics and intelligent systems are the unprecedented
exponential improvement of information Technology. In 2000, as expected, we saw the arrivalof a giga-PC capable of a billion operations per second, a billion bits of memory and billion
bits per second bandwidth, all available for less than two thousand dollars. Barring the creationof a cartel or some unforeseen technological barrier, we should see a tera-PC by the year 2015
and a peta-PC by the year 2030. (Fig. 1)
1638400
819200Tera PC

Doubling every 15 months

409600204800100G PC

10240051200

M25600I
P12800S 6400

Doubling every 2 years

10G PC

3200
1600

Giga PC

800
400
200
100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year
Fig 1. Exponential Growth Trends in Computer Performance−20−

The question is what will we do with all this power? How will it affect the way we live andwork? Many things will hardly change; our social systems, the food we eat, the clothes wewear, and the mating rituals will hardly be affected. Others, such as the way we learn, the way
we work, the way we interact with each other and the quality and delivery of health care will
undergo profound changes. Some of the computing power will be used to create self healing
computers and networks that never fail or need rebooting
Advances in magnetic disk memory have been even more dramatic. Disk densities have been
doubling every twelve months, leading to a thousand-fold improvement every ten years.
Today, you can buy a hundred-gigabyte disk memory for about a hundred dollars. By the year
2010, we should be able to buy "100 terabytes" for about the same price. At that cost, each of
us can have a personal library of several million books, a lifetime collection of music andmovies-- all on our home PC.
Most dramatic of all recent technological advances is the doubling of bandwidth every 9months, propelled by the advances in fiber-optic technology. Today you can buy commercial
systems that permit transmission of 1.6 terabits per second on a single fiber using dense
wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) technology. This technology uses 160 different
wavelengths each capable of transmitting 10 giga-bits-per-second. Experimental systems areable to transmit as much as 25 tera-bits-per-second on a single fiber today!
What can you do with 1.6 terabits per second bandwidth? It would take about 50 seconds totransmit all the books in the Library of Congress. All the phone calls in the world can be
carried on single fiber with room to spare. The main bottleneck today is not the bandwidth but
rather the computer speed capable of accepting and switching data packets arriving at terabit
data rates! The speed of light is also proving to be a problem. The maximum sustainablebandwidth using TCP/IP protocols is governed by the round-trip delay times! At terabit rates,with round trip times of about 30 ms across the US, 30 billion bits would have been transmitted
before an acknowledgement can be received!
It is expected that the exponential doubling of memory and bandwidth will continue for the
next 10 to 20 years, leading to the availability of terabyte disks and terabytes per second
bandwidth at a cost of pennies per day! This qualitatively changes the way we think of how
computers can be used in service to humanity. In this paper, we discuss several applications ofrobotics and intelligent systems that can be expected to transform the way we live, learn andwork.

Robotics and the Aging Population:
As the life expectancy of the population of the world increases, it is expected that soon over
10% of the population will be over the age of 70. This age group can be expected to have−21−

minor disabilities impacting their quality of life. These disabilities can be grouped into threebroad categories: sensory disabilities, cognitive disabilities, and motor disabilities and can be
remedied through the use of robotic and intelligent systems technologies. In this Section, we
will discuss the Nursebot project at Carnegie Mellon University capable of intelligent
reminding, telepresence, data collection and surveillance, mobile manipulation and social
interaction. Commercial availability of such solutions would pave the way for many seniorcitizens to lead productive lives much longer.
The cost of eldercare has grown dramatically over the last decade. Current nursing home costs
range between $30,000 and $60,000 annually. Dramatic increase of the elderly population
along with the explosion of costs poses extreme challenges to society. The current practices ofproviding care for the elderly population are already insufficient and in the future, there will be
fewer young people to help older adults cope with the challenges of aging.
Robots for elder care must satisfying several requirements.
• Robots should must keep pace with the subject and not be either too fast or too slow.
Current robots with fixed velocity lead to frustration on user’s side.
• Safety while navigating in the presence of elderly people is a must. Given the limitationsof the field of view of current vision systems, an eldercare robot may not always detectobstacles beyond its field of vision and risk accidentally hitting a person.
• A robot must be able accept and respond to voice commands. Current speech recognitionand synthesis technologies are good enough to make this possible although there areseveral unsolved problems, such as the robot getting confused with what people speak,following the dialog, and noise in the environment.
The Pearl Robot developed at Carnegie Mellon (and currently continued at University ofMichigan by Professor Martha Pollack 1) has been demonstrated in several assistive caresituations. (Fig. 2)

Fig 2. Encouraging Social Activity−22−

It provides a research platform to test out a range of ideas for assisting elderly people. Two
Intel® Pentium® 4 processor-based PCs run software to endow her with wit and ability tonavigate; a differential drive system propels her; Wi-Fi wireless network connection helps her
communicate as she rolls along; laser range finders, stereo camera systems, and sonar sensors
guide her around obstructions; microphones help her recognize words; speakers enable others
to hear her synthesized speech; an actuated head unit swivels in lifelike animation.
Researchers hope that such autonomous mobile robots will one day live in the homeschronically ill elderly persons to perform a variety of tasks 2, such as (Fig. 3)• Reminding elderly patients to visit the bathroom, take medicine, drink, or see the doctor.
• Connecting patients with caregivers through the Internet. The robot is a platform for telepresence technology whereby professional caregivers can interact directly with remotepatients, reducing the frequency of doctor visits.
• collecting data and monitoring the well-being of patients. Emergency conditions, such asheart failure or high blood sugar levels, can be avoided with systematic data collection.
• manipulating objects around the home such as the refrigerator, washing machine, or
microwave. Researchers say arthritis is the main reason elderly give up independent living.
• taking over certain social functions. Many elderly people are forced to live alone, deprivedof social contacts. The nursebot may help shut-ins feel less isolated.

Fig 3. Pearl Robot−23−

At present these robots are very expensive. Pearl is a one-of-a-kind, costing close to $100,000.
To ready a mass-market version of the automaton, researchers must overcome a rash of otherissues as well, such as battery power and the robot’s inability to navigate steps. In the
Telepresence system, the caregiver should have access to more detailed status about elder’sdaily activities such as whether the patient took the correct medicine, ate meals etc. It shouldhave the ability to monitor people and react to unusual behavior patterns such as alerting the
caregiver if a person is not moving from a chair for a long time. The current system uses
simple text strings for reminding a patient. As an elder’s cognitive capacities diminish, they
may require more detailed reminders. Even over shorter time spans, user’s needs may change,
for instance, during a period of illness. Intelligent reminders need to be based on theparameters like time of the day, timing of the previous interactions, user’s mood, and actions
that the user is supposed to do. Finally, future robots should be capable of pickup or movethings as desired by the user.
As a society we need to find alternative ways of providing care to the elderly and chronicallyill. Ways must be found not only lower the costs; they must also increase the comfort of living,
and approach people with the level of dignity that our elderly deserve. Technological advances
will no doubt make such Elder-care Robots available commercially in the near future.

Robotics for Rescue:
Natural and manmade disasters lead to unique requirements for effective collaboration ofhuman and robotic systems. Often the disaster locations are too dangerous or unreachable forhuman exploration. Additional constraints like the availability of rescuers, high or low
temperatures, and hurricane force winds result in significant delays before human rescuers canstart searching for victims. In most cases human rescuers need to retrieve victims within 48
hours to enhance survival rates. The disasters of the last decade have shown that advances likeearthquake prediction are not enough. For example in the Kobe earthquake of 1995 several
large structures including buildings and highways which were believed to be earthquake proof
were destroyed. In both Kobe and Oklahoma bombing cases, the human rescue efforts alone
were not enough resulting unnecessary loss of life. The huge robots available at the time ofthese disasters could not maneuver in the rubble and could not be used effectively.
Lessons learnt from these and other rescue situations motivated further research around theworld leading to the creation of rescue robots that are small, light, and cheap. Today several
organizations are actively participating in designing rescue robots that are small but can carry
human sized payload. Some systems are able to maneuver over land and air and can detectsounds. Many of the robots have cameras with 360 degree rotation capability that can sendback high resolution images. Some rescue robots are equipped with specialized sensors that can−24−detect body heat or colored clothing. The 9/11 tragedy and the recent hurricanes haveshowcased the nascent robotics technology and the industry attempting to provide tools andsystems for data gathering and rescue. (Fig. 4)

Fig 4. World Trade Center Site After 9/11

Current commercially available solutions are typified by The VGTV Xtreme 3, (Fig. 5) madeby American Standard Robotics, is a 14 pound rescue robot that comes with a camera sosearchers could see where it was too dangerous for them to venture.

Fig 5. VGTV Xtreme Rescue Robot

Unlike the laboratory systems of the previous generation, this system is durable and flexible
and stands up to the beating they take in the field. Current models have more ground clearance,
so they can more easily go over rubble piles. Cameras are better, with longer zoom lenses, soeven the robots don't have to journey as far into a structure. Operator controls have been
improved and are compatible with equipment and gloves worn by rescuers. Also, the robots arewaterproof, which makes decontamination easier.

−25−

Figure 6 showcases search and rescue systems that are being developed by The International
Rescue System Institute (IRSI) of Japan 4.

Fig 6. Robots of International Rescue System Institute

These robots are capable of traveling hundreds of feet autonomously. Other examples arerescue robots like the “snake robot” from Carnegie Mellon University which helps assesscontamination at waste storage sites or search for land mines. Similarly small and durable
Tactical Mobile Robots (TMR) called PackBots were used by the military to explore Afghan
Caves. The American Association for Artificial Intelligence conducts Rescue Robotcompetition annually (since 2000) in order to identify the capabilities and limitations ofexisting rescue robots.
Continued research and development is needed to enhance the capabilities and eliminate
limitations rescue robotic systems. It is difficult to build robust rescue robots that can deal withthe unexpected complexity of a disaster site. For example, the robots need to be adaptable towater clogged dark mines, collapsed building rubble, water clogged pipes etc. Also the robots
should be able to adjust lighting, be resistant to extreme temperatures like a volcano or icy
mountain environment.
A limitation observed in robot-rescue efforts at world trade center is that the robots can not govery far into the rubble because of short tether. At present, tele-operation from remote sites isoften limited to about 100 feet from disaster site. Limitations of sensors, long setup times,
human touch, ability to deliver food and medicines too an injured person etc needs to beaddressed by next generation robots. (Fig. 7)−26−

Fig 7. more Examples

Rescue robots can play a vital role in reducing the damage caused by disasters. Much work isunderway to exploit ways in which technology can lead to robust systems that can aid in rescue
missions, saving lives and keeping rescue worker from unsafe situations. Building rescue
robots on a large scale that are affordable and efficient can be a challenge and demands
increased participation and awareness from relevant government agencies. Progress is needed
not only in improving the technology and research infrastructure but also in creating trained
work force of First Responders who can effectively use such systems.

Speech and Reading Tutor:
Over a billion people in the world cannot read or write. Over 2 Billion people in the world arefunctionally illiterate in that they cannot understand the meaning of the sentences they could
read. Advances in speech recognition and synthesis technologies provide an opportunity tocreate a computer based solution that can help to improve literacy. The solution involves
creating an automated Reading Tutor that displays stories on a computer screen, and listens tochildren read aloud using speech recognition technology.
Until 10 years ago, the speech recognition systems were not fast enough to recognize theconnected spoken words in real time. For the reading tutor application, discovering andcorrecting mispronunciations requires not merely speech recognition, but also detecting
deviations in stress, duration and spectral properties of a spoken word from that of native
speakers.
The Reading Tutor developed by Dr Jack Mostow 5 at Carnegie Mellon University provides
one such solution. To provide help in assisted reading, the Reading Tutor lets the child choose
from a menu of high-interest stories from Weekly Reader and other sources including userauthored stories. It adapts Carnegie Mellon’s Sphinx speech recognition system to analyze the−27−student’s oral reading. The Reading Tutor intervenes when the reader makes mistakes, getsstuck, clicks for help, or is likely to encounter difficulty. It responds with assistance modelledin part after expert reading teachers, but adapted to the capabilities and limitations of thetechnology. The current version runs under Windows XP on an ordinary personal computerwith at least 128MB of memory. Though not (yet) a commercial product, the Reading Tutor 6
has been used daily (see photos below) by hundreds of children, as part of studies to test its
effectiveness. (Fig. 8)

Fig 8. Reading tutor being used in a class room

Additional improvements are needed to fully realize the potential of this technology:
1.

To make the Reading tutor a better listener, we must reduce speech recognition errors
which are common in the recognition engine used. We also need systems that work with
non-native speakers and local dialects and careless speech of children.

2.

To improve assistance in learning, the user should get the help when they are stuck,
better localization of reading mistakes, and an intuitive user interface for seeking help
from the system.

3.

To detect whether a student is engaged in answering questions, we need engagement
tracing using response times. To improve on student performance the system must
propose an approach by modelling the student behaviour.

4.

To provide personalized help for each student, the system needs different levels of help
based on the capabilities and learning abilities of the student. (Fig. 9)−28−

Fig 9. Reading tutor pilot in Ghana

Computer Vision and Intelligent Cruise Control:
Globally over a million people die annually in road traffic fatalities. In the U.S. this number isover 40,000 per year. The annual repair bill for the cars involved in these accidents in the U.S.
exceeds over $55 billion. Sensing planning and control technologies made possible by theadvances in computer vision and intelligent systems have the potential for reducing the deaths
and the costs by over 80%.
It has been noticed that 40% of all vehicle crashes can be attributed in some form to reduced
visibility due to lighting and weather conditions. With physical sensors monitoring the glare,
fog and artificial light in the environment, alerts could be given to the driver so that he is more
careful while driving through that particular area.
A majority of the road accidents 7 (over 70%) were found to be caused by human errors whiledriving. More often than not, these errors are due to speeding, driver fatigue or the driver being
drunk. Over 240,000 accidents occur in the U.S. solely due to the driver falling asleep whiledriving. The casualties in such accidents can be reduced dramatically if there is an autopilotthat can temporarily take control of the vehicle and navigate it to safe location.
Another major concern for drivers is the increasing number of traffic jams on highways and incities. The Texas Transportation Institute estimates that in 2000 alone, major U.S. cities
experienced 3.6 billion vehicle-hours of delay due to traffic congestion. This resulted in 21.6
billion litres of wasted fuel and $67.5 billion in lost productivity. Many of these jams arecaused by excessive-braking due to driver panic or minor miscalculations while driving. Suchirregular driving not only disrupts the traffic flow but also causes discomfort to the passengers
travelling with the driver. In addition, it contributes to the wear of the vehicle resulting inhigher fuel consumption. The other side-affect of irregular driving is that huge gaps are createdon highways because the driver maintains a large distance from the vehicle in front. This leads−29−

to a significant underutilization of the current roads.
Many of these problems can be avoided with the help of intelligent cruise control systems that
regulate the speed of vehicle based on the time-to-collision.
In fact, studies show that majority of traffic jams can be completely avoided even if a fractionof vehicles are fitted with some form of driver assistance systems.
To create effective solutions to the above problems we need innovation in sensing technologies,
control systems, actuators, route-planning algorithms and vision based navigation systems.
Dependable perception is a key component in building next generation cruise control systems.
There is need for sensors that make use of light, sound or radio waves to detect and sense thephysical environment. These sensors can be used to gather data like the speed, distance, shapeand color of the objects surrounding the vehicle. Efficient object classification techniques need
to be developed that can extract the shape of objects from this sensor data, and accurately
classify them also based on color. Real-time object tracking systems are required tocontinuously monitor (and predict) the trajectories of these vehicles/people over time. Based on
all this information, scene recognition algorithms can be developed to recognize theinteractions between different objects in the environment and extrapolate them to a possible
collision scenario in the immediate future.
In addition to the perception modules, there is also need for control systems and actuators tosteer the vehicle. Feedback control systems with proportional control are required to help thevehicle maintain a constant speed by automatically adjusting the throttle based on the current
speed. Efficient path planning and localization techniques are needed to enable the vehicle toautonomously navigate a set path.
Once these technologies are in place, it is possible to build collision warning systems withintuitive interfaces that warn drivers of the imminent danger ahead well in advance, so thathe/she can stay clear. Collision avoidance and autonomous navigation systems can be designedthat can plan and navigate the vehicle around the obstacles and danger scenarios without help
from the driver.
Recent advances in sensor technology and scene recognition make it possible to develop
collision warning systems that can give the driver sufficiently advance warning about theimpending danger. Wherever such timely warning is not possible, collision avoidance systems
take over and guide the vehicle to safety. Some current systems use laser-striping technology todetect the distance of surrounding obstacles for road-following and obstacle avoidance. Laserlight is flashed on the scene and a camera is used to see the intersection of the light with
objects in the scene. The distance between the vehicle and the object is then calculated bytriangulation. Road-edges, side curbs and other obstacles can be detected using this technology.
Omnicams and optical flow tracking are then used to build a 360 degree view of the world andtrack the movement of the edges along the motion of the vehicle. So whenever the vehicle−30−

comes too close to the curbs or drifts off the road, the system recognizes it as a dangerous
situation and warns the driver. The Vision and Autonomous Systems Center at the Carnegie
Mellon University is building collision-warning systems for transit buses that also make use
short-range sensors to detect and warn the driver of frontal and side collisions.
In the last decade, we also saw the emergence of fully autonomous navigation systems that canplan and navigate through real world traffic conditions. The key potential benefits of such
systems are reduction of accident rate because of the collision-avoidance capabilities, reduction
in driver fatigue, increase in fuel efficiency and better utilization of roads due to closefollowing (platooning). It has also been observed by a study published in Physics journal that amajority of traffic jams can be prevented if a mere 20% of vehicles on the road used adaptive
cruise-control.
The Navlab vehicles 8 developed by Carnegie Mellon University’s Field Robotics Center havedemonstrated capability of autonomously operating at highway speeds for extended periods oftime. These vehicles are equipped with perception modules to sense and recognize thesurrounding environment. (Fig. 10)

Fig 10. Autonomous Navlab; System for Intelligent Cruise Control

Curbs are detected and tracked using a combination of lasers, radars and cameras. The locationof curb is projected onto the visual image of the road and the image is processed to generate a
template of the curb’s appearance. Tracking the curb in the image along the motion of thevehicle facilitates the system to generate a preview of where the curb and road are headed.
Accordingly the vehicles are able to differentiate between objects on the road and those that areon the side, and thus able to safely negotiate turns in the road. Sick single-axis ladders are used
to build a map of the environment and track moving objects. The Sick scans a single line acrossthe scene periodically with the help of radio waves and laser beams. As long as the vehicle
carrying the sick does not move too irregularly, the moving objects can be tracked from frameto-frame as the vehicle moves. Given the location of the moving and fixed objects, and the−31−heading of the vehicle, it is possible to estimate the time of collision for each object. Stereovision systems are also used to get 3D information from a scene specially to detect and track
human beings.
Drive-by-wire is another recent technology that has made it easy to implement autonomous
control in next generation vehicles. The idea is to de-link the vehicle’s mechanical controls
from the actual operation of the associated devices. Mechanical movement of the accelerator,
steering, brake, clutch or gear controls generate different electric signals depending on theamount of pressure applied. The signals are sent to a central computer which uses preset
instructions to control the vehicle accordingly (eg. move the air-intake valve to allow more air
for throttle). Drive-by-wire eliminates human errors like pressing the accelerator too hard or
the clutch too lightly. At the same time it also optimizes the fuel-delivery strategy. As a result
vehicles are safer to drive and more economical to maintain. It also makes driving moreconvenient because cruise control and gear shifting are optimized.
While these technologies have been demonstrated and available at Carnegie Mellon University
and other research laboratories for over twenty years, legal and regulatory and reliability
considerations have held back the rapid adoption of these technologies. (Fig. 11)
It is to be hoped that the legendary Honda innovation will make accidental avoiding cruise
control systems affordable and accessible.

Fig 11. Autonomous Human Rescue System

Human computer interaction: Providing computer access to the people at the bottom of
the pyramid.
There are 4 billion people at the bottom of the pyramid who subsist on less than $2000 income
per year 9. Most of them do not know English and over a billion are uneducated. Since most
personal computer designers assume that the user knows English (or a few other languages ofindustrial nations), it might appear doubtful that people at the bottom of the pyramid 10 could−32−ever benefit from the advances in Information Technology! However there is no reason for
pessimism. Note that any one can learn to use a TV or a telephone or learn to drive a car,arguably some of the more complex technologies invented by society. The secret is to hide thecomplexity under a radically simple interface.
Thus, it is not the technology that acts as the barrier but rather the companies that target theirdesigns at the affluent consumers. To be useful at the bottom of the pyramid, we needcompelling content and an easy to learn user interface.
At Carnegie Mellon University, we have been developing a Multi Function Information
Appliance that can be used by anyone. It primarily functions as an entertainment andcommunication device. It can be used not only as a TV or a DVR or a Video Phone or an IP
phone, but also as a PC (hence the name PCtvt).
To improve accessibility to everyone on the planet, the system uses an iconic and voice based
interface. It is easy to learn to use - with less than one minute learning time (like turning on a
TV set and choosing a channel), requiring only 2 or 3 steps (two click paradigm), and operatedusing a TV remote. Figure 12 shows the system being used as TV along with the iconic userinterface. The following video shows this system in operation.

Fig 12. 「PCtvt」Multi-Function Appliance Two Click Interface

The basic technologies to add multimedia functionality to a PC have been around for over 15
years. By adding TV tuner chip a PC can become a TV and/or a DVR. Adding a camera and a
microphone permits video and audio inputs enabling not only a telephone functionality (using
VOIP protocols) but also capabilities such as Video Phone, Video conferencing, and Video andVoice email, capabilities that are currently unavailable to most users even in industrial−33−

countries.
The key improvement (or dumbing down!) is to insist on a radically simple user interface thatcan be used by even illiterate people– what we call an Appliance Model. Like a TV, the two
click model and one minute learning time prescribe that any function should be as simple as
power on and selecting a channel, and that anyone to learn to use it in less than a minute.
Please see figure 13 for two click iconic interface of PCtvt.

Fig 13. Two Click Video Phone

It is interesting to note that an Illiterate person needs a more powerful PC than a PhD! Shecannot use email to read or write, but can easily learn to use voice mail or video mail. She
cannot use text based help system but can benefit from a video chat. Such solutions demand
more bandwidth, computation and memory than conventional systems for the power users ofPCs. It presents an interesting conundrum. To be useful and affordable at the bottom of the
pyramid, we need a PC which has hundred times more computing power for 1/10 of the cost!
There are no technological reasons (but some regulatory and political reasons) why increased
memory and bandwidth required by a PCtvt cannot be provided at nominal costs! Projected
exponential growth in computing and communication technologies should make this possible.
It is a research challenge that is worthy of undertaking not only as an eco-technology but also
as a good business. It would open up the large untapped customer base in the emerging
markets.

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Natural Language Processing and Digital Libraries:
Creating a universal, free to read, digital library containing all the books ever published istechnically feasible today. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft have all announced their intention toscan and make available books of interest to public. Unfortunately most of these will be in
English and will not be readable by over 80% of the world’s population. Even when books inother languages become available online, their content will remain incomprehensible to mostpeople on the planet. Natural Language Processing Technology for translation among
languages is not yet perfect but promises to provide a way out of this conundrum. Such a
resource furthers the democratization of knowledge by making this large digital libraryavailable to scholars around the world.
Natural Language Processing technologies provide tools for indexing and retrieval, translation,summarization, and document clustering and topic tracking 11. Taken together these solutions
are essential for successful utilization of vast amount of information contained in the future
digital libraries. Even if we read a book every day, we cannot read more than 40,000 books ina life time. Thus having millions of books online and accessible creates an information
overload. Our late colleague Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon used to say “we have a wealth of
information and scarcity of (human) attention!” The online multilingual search technology
provides a way out. It allows users to search very large data bases quickly and reliably
independent of language and location and enhancing accessibility to relevant information.
The past few decades has seen major improvements in the area of Natural Language processing.
Systems that perform well based on Statistical and Linguistic techniques have come up. Also
systems that improve upon their performance using Machine Learning techniques are widely
seen today. Natural Language processing which had been an area for linguistics andtheoreticians is now being helped by the involvement of Computer Scientists andMathematicians. A wide variety of linguistic resources have been built at various Universities
furthering our understanding.
The Million Book Digital Library Project 12 at Carnegie Mellon University is a collaborative
venture among many countries including USA, China and India. So far over 400,000 books
have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India. Content is made available freely frommultiple sites around the globe. The website at CMU, www.ul.cs.cmu.edu<http://www.ulib.org>, provides a sampling of this collection which is full-content searchable
and readable. The following figures provide cover pages of two books, illustrating themultilingual nature of the collection. (Fig. 14) (Fig. 15)−35−

Fig 14. Sanskrit

Fig 15. Urdu

Initiatives like Million Book Digital Library Project and other digitization projects will act as arich test bed for validating concepts of Natural Language Research. A few decades ago even if
such massive data were to be available, it would have been difficult to effectively utilize it,
because NLP tools were not advanced enough. At present, machine translation (MT) systems
like the AVENUE project at CMU aim to find quick, low-cost methods for developing MT
systems for minority or endangered languages. We have question answering systems like
“REQUEST” at IBM that provides natural language interfaces to Information Systems. Speechinterfaces that use speech recognition and synthesis systems, permit the possibility of allowing
physically challenged and elderly people (and even uneducated people) to benefit from theonline data.
While basic technologies have been demonstrated using tools for English language, there aremany languages where the necessary linguistics tools are not yet available. As a result,automatic translation and summarization among many of the languages is not yet satisfactory.
We need to develop low cost, quick and reliable methods of producing Language processing
systems for many languages of low commercial interest. Natural language processing systems
have to better understand, interpret and resolve ambiguity in language. Ambiguities at thelexical, syntactic, semantic, contextual levels have to be resolved to generate to better quality
output. Most language processing systems are very computationally intensive. Effective waysof redesigning these systems to be able to scale up in real time are needed.
Rapid access to relevant information and knowledge has become so important to society thatthat it has spawned a 100 billion dollar search industry, in the form of Google, Yahoo and
MSN. As more and more information becomes searchable, findable and processable online, as
is the intention of the Google Print and other such projects, we can expect digital libraries tobecome the most used eco-technology of all!

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AI and Helping the Rural Digital Divide:
In many developing countries, one out of every 5 children dies before reaching the age of 5.
Neonatal care is not readily available to many new born children because hospitals areinaccessible and costly. The root causes of many of these deaths are known and preventable.
The major direct causes of neonatal death are infection, birth asphyxia/trauma, prematurity,and hypothermia. The underlying causes include poor pre-pregnancy health, inadequate careduring pregnancy and delivery, low birth weight, breast-feeding problems, and inadequate
newborn and post-partum care. In the systems currently in use, village health workers trainedin neonatal care make home visits and manage such problems. (Fig. 16)

Fig 16. Making home visits by village health workers

These include a community-based integrated management of childhood illnesses. This includes
programs such as control of diarrhoeal diseases, control of acute respiratory infection,
immunization and nutrition including micro-nutrients and raising community awareness.
Scalability and sustainability of the current solutions has been a problem, including readyaccessibility to a health worker, identifying and training health workers, and providing the
support and medicines in a timely manner.
It is believed that the poor, the sick and the uneducated masses on the other side of the rural
digital divide would have more to gain in relative terms from information and communication
technologies (ICT) than the billion people who already enjoy the benefits of this technology 13.
Specifically, artificial intelligence based approaches such as expert systems and knowledge
based systems that have been used in medical diagnosis and therapy applications since 1970s
may also prove to be effective in the developing world and provide timely intervention saving
lives and cost.
One such example of direct relevance is the Vienna Expert System for Parenteral Nutrition of
Neonates (VIE-PNN) 14. The planning of an adequate nutrition support is a tedious time
consuming calculation, needs practical expert knowledge and involves the risk of introducing−37−

possibly fatal errors. The aims of VIE-PNN were to avoid errors within certain limits, to savetime, and to keep data for further statistical analysis. The daily fluids, electrolytes, vitamins,
and nutrition requirements are calculated according to the estimated needs, the patients bodyweight, the age, and its clinical conditions (e.g. specific diseases, past and present day blood
analysis).
Creating an expert system for rural environments for neonatal care is perhaps a hundred times
more difficult. The cost of use must be pennies rather than dollars. There are also several
technical challenges to be overcome.
• First is the availability and accessibility of an Information Appliance capable hosting anexpert system and engaging in a dialog with a village house wife in a spoken local
language. It is anticipated that within a few years, cell phones would be powerful enoughto provide this functionality.
• Second is the development of recognition, synthesis and dialog systems for local
language(s).
• Third is the creation of an expert system with a data base of answers to common problems,in the form of voice and video responses as well as text. When an answer is not available
locally, a search is made on a global data base with more comprehensive frequently asked
questions and answers from around the world. This in turn requires multi-lingual searchand translation. If all else fails, the query is referred to human expert task force forgenerating an answer for immediate and future use.
• Finally we have the problem solving needed for providing the necessary therapy. For
example, it is not enough to say to an AIDS patient that they need a three-drug cocktail,but we must also provide answers to “where to get it?”, “how to pay for it?”, and “what to
do if you cannot afford it?”
ICT can be a powerful tool to facilitate and enable affordable solutions to those populations
who are socio-economically deprived. It can provide a link to doctors and treatment using
telemedicine, provide immediate access to health information through localized expert systems,
help to reduce infant mortality and facilitate access to information about hygiene.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, the advances of the next fifty years will undoubtedly be dramatic. Capabilities
such as videophones, accident-avoiding cars, and universal access to information andknowledge, entertainment on demand, learning on demand, and telemedicine will clearly cometo pass. These advances will transform the way we live, learn, work and govern ourselves.
Such capabilities can be used to further increase the gap between the haves and have-nots, or tohelp the poor, the sick and the illiterate. It is my hope that the Honda Foundation will lead theway to create eco-technologies for a "compassionate world in 2050"!

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References:
1.

M.E. Pollack, "Intelligent Technology for an Aging Population: The Use of AI to Assist
Elders with Cognitive Impairment”, AI Magazine, 26(2), September 2005.

2.

Intel, “Robot nurse escorts and schmoozes the elderly”,
http://www.intel.com/employee/retiree/circuit/robot.htm , July 2004.

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American Standard Robotics, “VGTV Xtreme” ,http://www.asrobotics.com/products/vgtv_xtreme.html

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J. Mostow, S. Roth, A. G. Hauptmann, and M. Kane, “A Prototype Reading Coach that
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J. Mostow and G. Aist, “Evaluating Tutors that Listen: An Overview of Project
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Chuck Thorpe, et. al. “Safe Robot Driving”, Proceedings of the International
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Computer Science and Telecommunications board, “National Research Council, “Morethan Screen Deep, Toward Every Citizen Interfaces to the Nation’s Information
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10. Raj Reddy, “The Role of Information Technology at the Bottom of the Pyramid”
http://www.rr.cs.cmu.edu/it4pbp.ppt , October 2005.
11. Jaime G. Carbonell, Alon Lavie, Lori Levin and Alan W.Black “Language Technologies
for Humanitarian Aid.” Technology for Humanitarian Action pages 111-137.
12. Carnegie Mellon University, “Universal Library”, http://www.ulib.org
13. Rahul Tongia, Eswaran Subrahmanian, V.S. Arunachalam, “Information andCommunication Technology for Sustainable Development, Defining a Global Research
Agenda”, http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rtongia/ICT4SD_Front_Pages.pdf , 2003.
14. Vienna Expert System for Parenteral Nutrition of neonates (VIE-PNN), “ An Expert
System for Parenteral Nutrition Composition of Newborn Infants” ,http://www.ai.univie.ac.at/imkai/kbs/vie-pnn.html−39−