Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook
Next release is July 16, 2024

RCS-24E June 14, 2024

Rice Outlook: June 2024
Nathan Childs, coordinator
Bonnie LeBeau, contributor

In this report:- Domestic Outlook- International Outlook

The Philippines 2025 Rice Import Forecast Raised 500,000
Tons to a Record 4.7 Million
The only revision to the 2024/25 U.S. rice balance sheet this month is a 1.0-million
hundredweight (cwt) reduction in the carryin forecast to 39.8 million cwt, still 32 percent larger
than a year earlier. The smaller carryin forecast is the result of a higher 2023/24 export forecast
that is raised 1.0 million cwt to 95.0 million. The reduced carryin lowered the 2024/25 ending
stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 44.5 million cwt, still 12 percent above a year earlier. On anannual basis, in 2024/25, the combination of a big increase in carryin, record imports, and aslightly larger crop result in record total rice supplies of 304.5 million cwt. On the use side, a 5percent increase in exports to 100.0 million cwt, plus a 2-percent growth in total domestic andresidual use to a record 160.0 million cwt, result in record total use of 260.0 million cwt. These
supply and use projections result in a 12-percent increase in U.S. ending stocks in 2024/25 to
44.5 million cwt. The 2024/25 all-rice season-average farm price (SAFP) remains forecast at$15.60 per cwt, $2.40 below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of a decline in the
all-rice SAFP.
Figure 1

The Philippines is projected to import a record 4.7 million metric tons ofrice in 2025
Million metric tons
6
5

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

4
3
2
1
0

Philippines

Vietnam

European
Iraq
Union
Top five importing countries or regions

Nigeria

Note: Rice imports are reported on a milled basis for each calendar year; 2024 and 2025 areforecasts. These 5 countries or regions account for about 25 percent of global rice imports.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database.

Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook BoardIn the 2024/25 global rice market, total production is forecast at a record 527.6 million tons,
virtually unchanged from the previous forecast but 1.5 percent larger than a year earlier. The
only 2024/25 production revision this month is a small increase in Guyana’s forecast.
Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines are all projected
to harvest record rice crops in 2024/25. For 2023/24, the global production estimate is raisedalmost 2.7 million tons to 520.0 million, as a substantial increase in India’s estimate more thanoffset reductions in production estimates for Brazil and Uruguay.
Global domestic and residual use in 2024/25 is projected at a record 526.4 million tons, virtuallyunchanged from the previous forecast. Consumption and residual forecasts for Kenya and thePhilippines are raised, while forecasts for Benin and Pakistan are lowered. Global ending stocks
in 2024/25 are projected at 178.0 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from the previous month and
0.7 percent larger than a year earlier. India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in
2024/25 global ending stocks, while ending stocks forecasts are lowered for Pakistan, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
Global rice trade in calendar year 2025 is projected at 53.8 million tons (milled basis),unchanged from last month’s forecast but down 0.8 million tons from a year earlier. There were
no 2025 export revisions this month. On the 2025 import side, the Philippines’ import forecast is
raised 500,000 tons to a record 4.7 million, and Kenya’s import forecast is raised 200,000 tons
to 800,000. For calendar year 2024, global trade is forecast at 54.6 million tons, up 1.1 million
from the previous forecast and 1.4 million tons above a year earlier. Export forecasts for 2024
are raised this month for India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam, but loweredfor Uruguay. Import forecasts for 2024 are raised this month for Iraq, Kenya, and thePhilippines.
Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades of regular (neither parboiled nor
aromatic) whole-grain milled rice from Thailand increased 2‒4 percent. In contrast, price quotes
for 5-percent brokens from Vietnam for the week ending June 11 declined. In South America,
price quotes from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have all risen over the past month,mostly over supply concerns in the region due to excessive rainfall and flooding from late April
through May. U.S. trading prices for long-grain and medium-grain milled rice were unchanged
over the past month.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable A. U.S. all-rice supply and use at a glance, 2022/23 to 2024/25
Balance sheet
item
SupplyBeginningstocks2022/232023/24May

2023/24
June

2023/24changes
2023/24 comments and2024/25
fromanalysis of month-to-monthMay
previouschangesmonth

Million hundredweight2024/25
June

2024/25
changesfrompreviousmonth2024/25
changesfromprevious
year

August–July marketing year

39.7

30.3

30.3

0.0

40.8

39.8

-1.0

9.6

Production

160.0

218.3

218.3

0.0

220.2

220.2

0.0

1.9

Imports

39.9

43.3

43.3

0.0

44.5

44.5

0.0

1.2

Total supply
Demand

239.7
291.8
291.8
Million hundredweight

0.0

305.5

304.5

-1.0

12.7

Domestic andresidual use

145.1

157.0

0.0

160.0

160.0

0.0

3.0

100.0

100.0

0.0

5.0

157.0

August–July marketing year

Exports

64.3

94.0

95.0

Raised based on higher
forecast for long-grain
1.0 exports.

Rough

18.1

43.0

43.0

0.0

44.0

44.0

0.0

1.0

56.0

56.0

0.0

4.0

260.0

260.0

0.0

8.0

45.5

44.5

-1.0

4.7

$15.60

0.00

-2.40

Milled

46.2

51.0

52.0

Raised based on a recent
stronger-than-expected
pace of sales andshipments, with Haiti a
1.0 major buyer.

Total use

209.4

251.0

252.0

Increased due to higher
1.0 export forecast.

Ending stocks
Price

30.3
40.8
39.8
U.S. dollars per hundredweight

Total supply is unchanged,-1.0 while exports are raised.
August–July marketing year

Seasonaverage farmprice (SAFP)$19.80$18.00$18.000.00$15.60Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates .

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable B. U.S. rice supply and use at a glance, by class, 2022/23 to 2024/25
Balance sheet
2022/23
item

2023/24May

2023/24
June

2023/24changesfrompreviousmonth2023/24 comments and analysis
on month-to-month changes

2024/25May

2024/25
June

2024/25
changesfrompreviousmonth2024/25
changesfrompreviousyear

Long-grain
SupplyAugust–July marketing year

Million hundredweight

Carryin
24.6

21.2

21.2

0.0

18.0

17.0

-1.0

-4.1

128.5

153.9

153.9

0.0

169.3

169.3

0.0

15.4

31.9

36.0

36.0

0.0

37.0

37.0

0.0

1.0

185.0
211.0
211.0
Million hundredweight

0.0

224.3

223.3

-1.0

12.3

114.0

0.0

123.0

123.0

0.0

3.0

75.0

0.0

1.0

198.0

198.0

0.0

4.0

Lowered due to the combinationof unchanged total supplies and astronger export forecast
26.3

25.3

-1.0

8.3

$14.500.00-1.60
Continued-

Production

Imports

Total supply
DemandAugust–July marketing year

Domestic andresidual use
120.0

120.0

49.8

73.0

74.0

1.0

Raised based on a stronger-thanexpected pace of sales andshipments through late May, with
Latin America accounting for the
75.0
bulk of the recent purchases.

163.8

193.0

194.0

1.0

Increased due to a higher export
forecast.

Exports

Total use

Ending stocks
Price 1/

21.2

18.0
17.0
-1.0
U.S. dollars per hundredweight

Seasonaverage farmprice (SAFP)$16.70$16.10$16.100.00$14.50

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable B. U.S. rice supply and use at a glance, by class, 2022/23 to 2024/25--Continued
2023/24
May

Balance sheet
2022/23
item

2023/24
June

2023/24changesfrompreviousmonth2023/24 comments and analysis
on month-to-month changes

2024/25May

2024/25
June

2024/25
changesfrompreviousmonth2024/25
changesfrompreviousyear

Medium- and short-grain
SupplyCarryin
Production

August–July marketing year

Million hundredweight
13.0

6.8

6.8

0.0

20.5

20.5

0.0

13.7

31.6

64.4

64.4

0.0

50.9

50.9

0.0

-13.5

8.0

7.3

7.3

0.0

7.5

7.5

0.0

0.2

78.5
78.5
Million hundredweight

0.0

78.9

78.9

0.0

0.4

Imports

Total supply
DemandDomestic andresidual use

52.4

August–July marketing year

31.1

37.0

37.0

0.0

37.0

37.0

0.0

0.0

14.5

21.0

21.0

0.0

25.0

25.0

0.0

4.0

45.6

58.0

58.0

0.0

62.0

62.0

0.0

4.0

16.9

16.9

0.0

-3.6

Exports

Total use

Ending stocks
Price 1/
Southern
medium- andshort-grain

6.8

20.5
20.5
0.0
U.S. dollars per hundredweightAugust–July marketing year

$18.20$17.90$17.900.00$15.00$15.00

0.00

-2.90

$40.90$29.00$29.000.00$22.00$22.00

0.00

-7.00

$33.80 $25.00$25.000.00$19.801/ Season-average farm price.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates .

$19.80

0.00

-5.20

California
medium- andshort-grain
U.S. mediumand shortgrain

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
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U.S. 2024/25 Carryin Lowered 1.0 Million Hundredweight to39.8 Million
The only supply-side revision this month to the 2024/25 U.S. rice balance sheet is a 1.0-millionhundredweight (cwt) reduction in the carryin to 39.8 million cwt, still 32 percent above a year
earlier. The downward revision is due to a stronger 2023/24 export forecast. Long-grain
accounts for all of the reduction in the 2024/25 carryin. On an annual basis, medium- and shortgrain accounts for all of the expected increase in carryin. Long-grain carryin is projected to
decline almost 20 percent to 17.0 million cwt.
The 2024/25 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 220.2 million hundredweight (cwt), up 1.9
million cwt from a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. The production increase is theresult of a 1-percent expansion in harvested area more than offsetting a fractional decline in the
projected yield. Long-grain accounts for all of the projected production increase, medium- andshort-grain production is projected to decline 21 percent in 2024/25.
At 2.884 million acres, 2024/25 all-rice harvested area is up 30,000 acres from a year earlier.
The harvested area estimate is based on the intended plantings reported by USDA, National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Prospective Plantings report released on March 28.
The first USDA, NASS survey of actual 2024/25 rice plantings was conducted in early June, withthe results to be released in the June 28 USDA, NASS Acreage report. Actual plantings often
differ from planting intentions due to factors such as shifts in market prices and variations inweather and soil moisture.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research Service

Figure 2

U.S. rice production projected to increase almost 1 percent in 2024/25
Million cwt (rough basis)
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1985/86

Production

Harvested area

Million acres
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

1995/96

2005/06
Marketing year

2015/160.02024/25

Cwt = Hundredweight. 2024/25 is a forecast.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rice Yearbook dataset, 1985/86–2021/22; USDA, World
Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 2022/23–2024/25.

The 2024/25 projected yield of 7,635 pounds per acre is 14 pounds below a year earlier. This
all-rice yield is calculated by using recent 10-year trend yields for both long-grain and combined
medium- and short-grain rice. The first USDA, NASS reported yield for both the United States
and by State—based on a survey of producers conducted in early August—will be released on
August 12 in USDA, NASS’s Crop Production report.
Planting of the 2024/25 rice crop was virtually complete in the South by the end of May, and thepace was ahead of the recent 5-year average in all reported southern States except for
Mississippi, where excessive rainfall delayed planting. Due to the early planting, emergence ofthe 2024/25 crop is ahead of a year earlier and the recent 5-year average across most of theSouth, again except for Mississippi where the pace of emergence now matches the 5-year
average. In contrast to most of the South, rain delayed plantings in California, which has
resulted in an emergence pace of 65 percent reported for the week ending June 9, down from a
5-year average of 79 percent.
More than 80 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent condition for the week
ending June 9, with all of the California crop rated good or excellent. Mississippi reported 50
percent of its crop rated good or excellent for the week ending June 9, the smallest sharereported by any State.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable C - Weekly crop progress
Class and State
Rice emerged

Arkansas
California
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Texas
U.S. total

Week ending
June 9, 2024

Previous week

A year earlier

State and U.S.
2019–23
average- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 99
65
99
95
95
100
93

96
45
98
86
93
100
88

97
61
99
100
99
94
92

These 6 States account for almost 100 percent of U.S. rice acreage.
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; USDA, Economic
Research Service.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
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92
79
98
95
89
94
91

Table D. Weekly crop conditions
Percent rated good or excellent
Week ending
June 9The previous
week

Percent rated poor or very poor

The previous
year

Week ending
June 9The previous
week

The previous
year

State
- - - - - - - - - - Percent - - - - - - - - - - 81
76
57
100
100
100
88
91
74
50
58
60
76
73
57
68
68
66

Arkansas
California
Louisiana
Mississippi
MissouriTexas- - - - - - - - - - Percent - - - - - - - - - - 4
2
0
0
0
0
2
3
9
9
0
5

U.S. total
82
81
67
3
These 6 States account for almost 100 percent of U.S. rice acreage.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Figure 3

U.S. rice imports in 2024/25 projected to be a record highMillion cwt (rough basis)
50

Percent
35

45
40
35

30

Imports

Share of domestic use 1/

25

30

20

25
20

15

15

10

10

5

5
0

1985/86

1990/91

1995/96

2000/01

2005/06

2010/112016/1702024/25

August–July marketing year
Cwt = Hundredweight. 2023/24 and 2024/25 are forecasts.1/ Does not include seeduse.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rice Yearbook dataset
1985/86‒2021/22; USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates, 2022/23‒2024/25.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
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2

3
0
3
2
9
4
3

Total 2024/25 U.S. Rice Supplies Projected at a Record 304.5
Million Hundredweight
Total U.S. rice supplies in 2024/25 are projected at a record 304.5 million hundredweight (cwt),
down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but more than 4 percent above a year earlier.
The projected supply increase is mainly due to a more than 9.5-million cwt increase in carryin,
as well as record imports and a slightly larger crop. Long-grain accounts for almost all of the
projected supply increase. Medium- and short-grain supplies are projected nearly unchanged
from a year earlier.
U.S. 2024/25 all-rice imports remain projected at a record 44.5 million cwt, up 3 percent from ayear earlier. Long-grain imports remain projected at a record 37.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million froma year earlier. Shipments of aromatic rice from Thailand and India are expected to again
account for the bulk of U.S. long-grain imports and nearly all of the projected increase. U.S.
imports from these two major exporting countries are almost exclusively aromatic varieties thatare not currently grown in the United States.
Combined medium- and short-grain imports in 2024/25 remain projected at 7.5 million cwt, up
0.2 million from a year earlier. China is expected to remain the largest supplier of medium- andshort-grain rice to the United States, supplying four or five shipments of 21,000 tons each to
Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory. Thailand and India are expected to account for most of theremainder, with Italy consistently supplying a much smaller amount of its arborio rice.

U.S. 2024/25 Rice Exports Projected to Increase 5 Percent to100.0 Million Hundredweight
U.S. rice exports in 2024/25 are projected to increase 5.0 million hundredweight (cwt) to 100.0
million, the highest since 2016/17. Exports of both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice
are projected to expand in 2024/25, with medium- and short-grain accounting for 80 percent of
the expansion.
In 2024/25, U.S. long-grain exports are projected to increase 1.0 million cwt to 75.0 million, thehighest since 2016/17. The small expansion is based on larger supplies and lower expected
prices. Rough-rice shipments to Latin America are expected to account for nearly all of theincrease and the majority of U.S. long-grain sales, despite expected continued competition fromSouth American exporters in these markets. Mexico and Central America are expected toremain the top markets for U.S. long-grain rough rice, followed by northern South America.
U.S. exports of milled rice to the Caribbean are expected to increase slightly in 2024/25, withlong-grain accounting for nearly all of these sales. Canada, Haiti, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are the
top markets for U.S. long-grain milled rice. The European Union (EU) and the Dominican
Republic imports much smaller amounts.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
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Figure 4

U.S. long-grain rice exports projected to increase more than 1 percent in 2024/25 1/
Million cwt
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000/01

Long-grain
Medium- and short-grain

2005/06

2010/112016/172024/25

Marketing year
Cwt = Hundredweight. 2023/24 and 2024/25 are forecasts.1/ Milled-, brown-, and rough-rice exports
on a rough-rice basis.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rice Yearbook dataset, 2000/01–2021/22; USDA,
World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 2022/23–
2024/25.

Figure 5

U.S. milled-rice export forecast to increase 4.0 million cwt to 56.0 million in 2024/25
Million cwt
100
90

Rough

Milled 1/

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000/01

2005/06

2010/112016/17

2020/212024/25

Marketing year
Cwt = Hundredweight. 2023/24 and 2024/25 are forecasts.1/ Milled- and brown-rice exports on arough-rice basis.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rice Yearbook dataset, 2000/01–2021/22; USDA,
World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 2022/23–
2024/25.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
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Combined medium- and short-grain exports in 2024/25 remain projected at 25.0 million cwt, up
4.0 million from a year earlier. The increase is based on an expected substantial decline in U.S.
medium-grain milled-rice trading prices, which have already dropped more than 50 percent from
September record highs. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan account for the bulk of U.S. mediumand short-grain exports. These three East Asian countries purchase rice as part of their World
Trade Organization minimum access commitments. Canada, Israel, Jordan, and Mexico
purchase smaller quantities of U.S. medium- and short-grain rice. California provides nearly all
U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.
U.S. 2024/25 rough-rice exports remain projected at a record 44.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million
from a year earlier. The increase is based on expected stronger sales of long-grain rice to Latin
America, primarily to Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela, a result of larger supplies andlower prices. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports.
U.S. milled-rice exports are projected to increase 4.0 million cwt to 56.0 million, the highest
since 2020/21. East Asia is expected to account for the bulk of the increase and to remain thelargest export market for U.S. milled rice. Haiti, Canada, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are the next
largest markets for U.S. milled rice, with Israel, the EU, and the Dominican Republic taking
much smaller amounts.
Total U.S. domestic and residual use in 2024/25 remains projected at a record 160.0 million cwt,
2 percent above a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for all of the projected expansion, with longgrain domestic and residual projected at a record 123.0 million cwt. The increase is based onlarger supplies and higher post-harvest losses associated with a larger crop.
At 44.5 million cwt, U.S. all-rice ending stocks are projected to be up 12 percent from a year
earlier. Long-grain accounts for all of the expected increase in the 2024/25 carryout, while themedium- and short-grain carryout is projected to decline 18 percent.
There were no supply-side revisions this month to the 2023/24 U.S. rice balance. On the use
side, exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 95.0 million cwt, with long-grain accounting for all of
the upward revision, a result of stronger-than-expected sales to Latin America. By type, milledrice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 52.0 million based on stronger-than-expected sales andshipments through late May, mostly to Haiti. The slightly stronger export forecast reduced the2023/24 all-rice ending stocks forecast by 1.0 million cwt to 39.8 million cwt, still 32 percent
above a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for all of the reduction in the 2023/24 ending stocks
forecast.

U.S. Rice Prices Projected to Decline in 2024/25
U.S. season-average farm prices (SAFP) for both classes of rice are projected to decline in
2024/25 from a year earlier. The long-grain SAFP is projected to drop $1.60 per hundredweight(cwt) to 14.50, the lowest since 2021/22. The expected decline is based on larger U.S. supplies.
The 2024/25 California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected to decline $7.00 per ton to$22.00, the lowest since 2019/20. California’s prices had been elevated by drought that sharply
reduced rice production in both 2021/22 and 2022/23. Prices for California milled rice havedeclined more than 50 percent from their September record highs. In the South, the 2024/25
medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected to decline $2.90 per cwt to $15.00, as demand for
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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research Service

this type of rice remains weak. The U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at$19.80 per cwt, down $5.20 from this year. The U.S. all-rice 2024/25 SAFP is projected at$15.60 per cwt, down $2.40 from 2023/24 and the lowest since 2020/21. In 2023/24, SAFPs forboth classes of rice are projected to decline from the year earlier record highs, a result of larger
crops in both the South and California.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research Service

International Outlook
Record Rice Production in 2024/25 Projected for Bangladesh,
Cambodia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka
Global rice production in 2024/25 is projected at a record high of 527.6 million tons (milled
basis), virtually unchanged from a month earlier but up 7.6 million tons from a year earlier. The
only 2024/25 production revision this month is a 20,000-ton increase in Guyana’s crop to
680,000 tons.
Global harvested area is projected at a record high of 167.6 million hectares, virtuallyunchanged from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from a year earlier. Bangladesh, Brazil,
Cambodia, China, the European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Iraq, Pakistan, the Philippines,
and Thailand account for most of the projected rice harvested area expansion in 2024/25. The
area expansions are driven by current and expected high rice trading prices, adequate waterlevels in reservoirs, and an expected return to normal weather in most producing areas after
experiencing an erratic Southwest monsoon in 2023 in South Asia, El Niňo dryness inSoutheast Asia in 2023/24, and El Niňo-related excessive rainfall in parts of southern SouthAmerica this spring.
The average global rice yield in 2024/25 is projected at a record almost 4.71 tons per hectare(rough-rice basis), up fractionally from 4.69 tons per hectare. China, the largest rice-producing
country in the world, is projected to achieve a record yield. Bangladesh, Cambodia, and thePhilippines are also expected to achieve record yields in 2024/25.
In 2024/25, increased production in Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia,
China, the EU, India, Iraq, Indonesia, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines,
Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States, and Uruguay is projected to more than offset
production declines in Egypt, Japan, and South Korea (table E, maps 1 and 2). Record crops
are projected for Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Production
forecasts currently assume normal weather for each country in 2024/25, with the 2023/24 ElNiňo that adversely impacted crops in Southeast Asia expected to dissipate by the start ofsummer.

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Map 1: Production forecasts (milled basis) 2024/25.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production,
Supply, and Distribution database.

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Map 2: Annual percent change in production

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production,
Supply, and Distribution database.

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable E. Global rice production, selected monthly revisions, and year-to-year changes, June 2024
Percent
ChangeMonth-to- Year-tochange
fromCountry or
Current
month
year
Explanation and comments on month-to-month change
fromregionforecast previous
direction direction
previous
month
year
Rice production in 2024/25, 1,000 metric tons (milled basis)

Guyana

680

20

4.6

Raised the production forecast based on a larger harvested area
estimate. At 180,000 hectares, harvested area is up 5,000 hectares
from the previous estimate and 6 percent larger than a year earlier andis the highest since the 2020/21 near-record-high of 187,000 hectares.
The projected average yield of 5.81 tons per hectare is virtuallyunchanged from a month earlier, but is 1 percent below the year earlier
record high. Guyana harvests two rice crops a year, with the first-crop
harvest recently completed and the second-crop harvest expected tobe completed by the end of November.

Rice production in 2023/24, 1,000 metric tons (milled basis)

BrazilIndia

Uruguay

7,000

137,000

900

-242

3,000

-100

2.6

Lowered the production estimate based on a smaller harvested area
estimate. At 1.5 million hectares, harvested area is 45,000 hectares
below the previous estimate but still up 1.4 percent from 2022/23. The
substantial reduction in the harvested area estimate is due tounprecedented flooding since late April in Rio Grande do Sul, the main
rice producing State in Brazil. The 2023/24 harvest was completed lastmonth in Rio Grande do Sul.

0.9

The substantial increase in the production estimate is based on
harvested area and production data reported in the Government ofIndia's Third Advanced Estimates released on June 4. The
Government reported harvested area at 47.6 million hectares, down
400,000 from the previous estimate and 0.5 percent below a year
earlier. The average yield of 4.32 tons per hectare is the highest on
record.

-6.7

Lowered the production estimate based on a smaller harvested area
and a reduced yield forecast. At 145,000 hectares, harvested area is
13,000 hectares below the previous estimate, but is unchanged from ayear earlier. The average yield is reduced 2 percent to 8.87 tons per
hectare, almost 7 percent below a year earlier. The harvested area andyield reductions are due to excessive rains during the maturation andharvesting period. The 2023/24 harvest was recently completed.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply,and Distribution database.

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Total global rice supplies in 2024/25 are projected at a record 704.4 million tons, up 1.9 million
from the previous forecast, almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier, and the first increasesince 2021/22 (table F). The expected increase in total supplies in 2024/25 is due to a 7.6million-ton increase in production more than offsetting a 2.6-million-ton decline in beginningstocks. China accounts for the bulk of the projected decline in the 2024/25 global carryin, with
China’s carryin projected to drop 3.6 million tons to 103.0 million. Thailand’s carryin is projected
to decrease 1.0 million tons to 2.75 million, and Pakistan’s carryin to drop 0.845 million tons to
1.2 million. Both declines in carryin are partly due to strong exports in 2023/24. In contrast,
India’s 2024/25 carryin is projected to increase 3.5 million tons to a record 38.5 million, largely
due to a near-record 2023/24 crop and weaker exports in 2024. The U.S. 2024/25 carryin ofnearly 1.3 million tons is up 32 percent from a year earlier, largely due to a strong 2023/24 crop
recovery.
Table F. Global rice balance sheet for 2022/23–2024/25 (in million metric tons, milled basis)

Balance sheet item
SupplyBeginning stocks

2022/23
June

2023/24May

2023/24
June

2023/24changefromprevious
month

Percentchangefrompreviousyear

2024/25May

2024/25
June

2024/25
changefromprevious
month

183.7

179.2

179.4

0.2

-2.3

174.9

176.8

1.9

Production

515.8

517.3

520.0

2.7

0.8

527.6

527.6

0.0

Total supply

699.5

696.5

699.4

2.9

0.0

702.5

704.4

1.9

Trade year imports 1/
Demand

53.3

53.5

54.6

1.1

2.6

53.8

53.8

0.0

Consumption andresidual use:

520.1

521.6

522.6

1.0

0.5

526.4

526.4

0.0

Trade year exports

53.3

53.5

54.6

1.1

2.6

53.8

53.8

0.0

Ending stocks
179.4
174.9
176.8
1.9
-1.5
176.1
Trade year 2023/24 is calendar year 2024. 1/ Includes imports not assigned to a specific country.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database.

178.0

1.9

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply,and Distribution database.

Global domestic and residual use in 2024/25 is projected at a record 526.4 million tons, virtuallyunchanged from the previous forecast but 3.8 million tons larger than a year earlier and 1.2
million tons smaller than production (table F). Consumption and residual use forecasts wereraised this month for Kenya and the Philippines but lowered for Benin and Pakistan.
On an annual basis, India accounts for the bulk of the increase in 2024/25 global consumption
and residual use, up 2.5 million tons from a year earlier to a record 120.0 million. The strong
increase is driven by expectations that the Government of India’s Public Distribution System,
which provides subsidized food grains to about 800 million citizens to ensure food security, willcontinue in 2024/25 with larger rice supplies. The larger supplies in India are primarily a result ofa record carryin and an expected record 2024/25 harvest. In the Philippines, 2024/25 domestic
and residual use is projected at a record 17.4 million tons, up 300,000 tons from the previous
forecast and 600,000 tons larger than a year earlier. Consumption growth in the Philippines isdriven by strong population growth and rising per capita use. Bangladesh’s domestic andresidual use is also projected to be a record high, at 38.0 million tons, up 400,000 tons from ayear earlier, driven mostly by strong population growth. U.S. domestic and residual use is
projected at a record 5.1 million tons, up 2 percent from a year earlier, mostly due to larger
supplies. In contrast, China’s 2024/25 domestic and residual use is projected to decline 3.2
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million tons to 145.0 million, the third consecutive year of decline, a result of the much smalleruse of rice in feed due to larger corn supplies.
Global ending stocks in 2024/25 are projected at 178.0 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from theprevious forecast, 0.7 percent larger than a year earlier, and the first increase since 2020/21.
India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in 2024/25 global ending stocks, with India’s
stocks raised 2.0 million tons this month to 38.5 million, unchanged from the year earlier record
high. In addition, the Philippines’ 2024/25 ending stocks forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 3.9
million tons, a result of record production and imports in 2024/25. In contrast, 2024/25 ending
stocks forecasts were lowered this month for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam due to smaller
carryins that resulted from stronger exports in 2023/24.
The larger projected global carryout in 2024/25 is the result of a record global crop more thanoffsetting a smaller carryin and record global domestic and residual use. China accounts for thelargest share of the expected increase in the 2024/25 global carryout, with China’s ending
stocks projected to increase 1.0 million tons to 104.0 million, the first increase since 2019/20.
China’s stocks buildup is based on a larger crop and substantially weaker domestic use morethan offsetting a smaller carryin and smaller imports. India’s 2024/25 ending stocks areprojected to remain at 38.5 million tons, unchanged from the year earlier record, as a record
crop and a larger carryin offset record domestic use and expanded exports.
In 2024/25, India and China are together projected to account for about 80 percent of global
ending stocks, about the same as a year earlier. The global stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 is
projected at 33.8 percent, also unchanged from a year earlier but below levels calculated for2017/18‒2022/23.
Global rice production in 2023/24 is projected at 520.0 million tons, up almost 2.7 million fromthe previous forecast, 4.2 million tons above a year earlier, and second only to the yet-to-be
harvested 2024/25 crop. India accounts for all of the upward revision in the 2023/24 global
production forecast, which more than offset weather-related reductions for Brazil and Uruguay.
Global domestic and residual use in 2023/24 is projected at 522.6 million tons, up almost 1.0
million tons from the previous forecast and 0.5 percent larger than a year earlier. On an annual
basis, increased consumption and residual use in 2023/24 in Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, India,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam is
projected to more than offset a second year of decline in China and a long-term decline inJapan and South Korea.
Global ending stocks in 2023/24 are projected at 176.8 million tons, up almost 1.9 million fromthe previous forecast, 2.6 million tons below a year earlier, and the third consecutive year of
decline. China accounts for the largest share of the 2023/24 decline in ending stocks, withending stocks projected to drop 3.6 million tons to 103.0 million, the smallest since 2016/17. The
decline is due to both a smaller crop and a big decline in the carryin. In contrast, U.S. ending
stocks in 2023/24 are projected to increase 32 percent to almost 1.3 million tons.

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The Philippines’ 2025 Import Forecast Raised 500,000 tons to
a Record 4.7 Million; Kenya’s Imports Raised 200,000 tons
Global rice trade in calendar year 2025 is projected at 53.8 million tons (milled basis),unchanged from last month’s forecast but down 0.8 million tons from a year earlier. There were
no 2025 export revisions this month. On the 2025 import side, upward revisions for El Salvador,
Kenya, Mozambique, and the Philippines were fully offset by reduced import forecasts for Beninand Brazil and a smaller global unaccounted import estimate. Global rice trade continues to belimited by India’s export bans and restrictions implemented in September 2022 and July andAugust 2023 that reduced exportable supplies and raised global trading prices. Several large
global exporters expanded shipments in 2023 and 2024 to make up for India’s reduced
shipments.

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USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable G. Selected rice importers at a glance (1,000 metric tons), June 2024
Country or
regionCurrent
forecast

Changefromprevious
month

Percent
Month-to- Year-tochange from
month
year
previous year direction direction

Explanation of month-to-month change in imports

Rice importers, 2025

Benin

450

-50

0.0

Reduced the import forecast based on a smaller 2024/25
domestic and residual use forecast. Since January 2024, thepace of purchases has been slower than expected,
especially from top supplier India.

Brazil

1,050

-50

-19.2

Lowered the import forecast based on a larger carryin.

0.0

Raised imports based on a higher 2024/25 domestic andresidual use forecast and a recent stronger-than-expected
pace of purchases. Imports are unchanged from the year
earlier revised record high. The United States is the main
supplier of rice to El Salvador.

2.6

Import forecast is raised based on an expected buildup in
ending stocks in 2024/25, as well as a recent stronger-thanexpected pace of purchases. India is the largest supplier ofrice to Guinea. Imports are projected record high.

El Salvador

Guinea

100

975

15

25

Kenya

800

200

-30.4

Imports are increased based on a much higher 2024/25
domestic and residual use forecast. The higher expected
domestic and residual use is driven by both a record carryin
and a record 2024/25 rice crop. India and Pakistan are thelargest supplier of rice to Kenya.

Mozambique

775

25

3.3

Imports are raised to a record-high based on an increased
2024/25 domestic and residual use forecast.

2.2

Raised imports to a record high based on higher domestic
and residual forecast for 2024/25. At a record 17.4 million
metric tons, domestic and residual use is up 300,000 metrictons from the previous forecast and nearly 4 percent larger
than a year earlier. The strong growth in domestic use isdriven by both an increasing population and a rising per
capita consumption.

Philippines

4,700

500

Continued--

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Rice Outlook: June 2024, RCS-24E, June 14, 2024
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable G. Selected rice importers at a glance (1,000 metric tons), June 2024--Continued
ChangePercent
Month-to- Year-toCountry or
Current
fromchange from
month
year
Explanation of month-to-month change in imports
regionforecast previous
previous year direction direction
month
Rice importers, 2024

Benin

450

-25

0.0

Reduced the import forecast based on a weaker-thanexpected pace of purchases through April. India is thelargest supplier of rice to Benin.

1,300

100

32.2

Raised the import forecast to the highest since 2002/03
based on a smaller 2023/24 production estimate. In
response to the smaller crop, the Government of Brazil
issued a suspension of import tariffs on most rice effective
May 21 through the end of 2024. The Government alsoannounced its intention to import 1.0 million metric tons ofrice by the end of 2024.

El Salvador

100

20

16.3

Import forecast raised to a record high based on a strongerthan-expected pace of purchases through late May, with theUnited States the top supplier. Imports account for the bulk
of El Salvador's rice consumption.

Guinea

950

50

9.2

Raised imports based on a stronger-than-expected pace ofpurchases through April, with India the largest supplier. The
increased supplies are offset by a larger carryout.

19.2

Imports are raised to a record high based on a stronger-thanexpected pace of purchases through April, with India,
Thailand, and the United States the top suppliers. The
stronger imports have resulted in higher projections forending stocks in 2023/24 and 2024/25.

Brazil

Iraq

Kenya

Mozambique

Philippines

2,200

200

1,150

500

22.9

Increased the import forecast to a record-high based on the
Government of Kenya's May 31 announcement of a
500,000-ton duty-free import quota of Grade 1 milled-whiterice. The rice must be imported before December 1, 2024.
The record imports are being driven by strong consumption
growth.

750

50

1.4

Import forecast is increased based on a stronger-thanexpected pace of purchases through April, with India thelargest supplier. The increased import pace is being driven
by rising consumption.

17.9

Raised the import forecast based on stronger-than-expectedpurchases through April, with Vietnam the largest supplier,followed by Thailand, Pakistan, and Burma. The faster
import pace is driven by stronger domestic use. In addition,
on June 5, the Government of the Philippines announced
that it would reduce the tariff on imported rice to 15 percent
from 35 percent to bring down the price of rice to low
income consumers.

4,600

500

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production,
Supply, and Distribution database.

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USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable H. Selected rice exporters at a glance (1,000 metric tons), June 2024
Country or
regionCurrent
forecast

Changefromprevious
month

Percent
Month-to- Year-tochange from
month
year
previous year direction direction

Explanation of month-to-month change in exports

Rice exporters, 2024
Guyana

465

25

16.5

Raised the export forecast based on a larger 2024/25
production forecast.

India

17,000500-4.1

Export forecast is raised based on both a larger 2023/24
production estimate and higher than expected stocks of riceon May 1.

Pakistan

5,700

200

25.9

Increased exports to a record high based on stronger-thanexpected shipments through April, especially to Africa, andexpectations of more purchases from Kenya.

Thailand

8,500

100

-2.7

Raised the export forecast based on larger-than-expected
shipments through April, with sales to the Philippines andIraq especially strong.

3,100

25

31.5

Export forecast is raised based on a recent stronger-thanexpected pace of sales and shipments, especially of longgrain milled-rice to Haiti. The substantial year-to-yearincrease is the result of much larger supplies and morecompetitive prices. Latin America accounts for most of the
expected growth in long-grain exports. East Asia accounts
for most of the expected increase in medium- and shortgrain exports.

Uruguay

875

-50

-11.7

Lowered the export forecast based on a reduced 2023/24
production estimate.

Vietnam

8,300

300

0.9

Exports raised to a record-high based on stronger-thanexpected shipments through May, with the Philippines andIndonesia the top buyers.

United States

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production,
Supply, and Distribution database.

The projected decrease in global imports in 2025 is primarily led by reduced purchases by
Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iraq, and Kenya. Indonesia is projected to report the largest import
reduction in 2025, with Indonesia’s imports projected to drop 2.0 million tons to 1.5 million due
to larger supplies. In contrast, imports are projected to increase in 2025 for Bangladesh, thePhilippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the UnitedStates, and Vietnam. Bangladesh and Vietnam are projected to show the largest importincrease in 2025. Imports are projected to be a record high in 2025 for the Philippines, Saudi
Arabia, the United States, and Vietnam. The strong import growth in all nine of these countries
is largely driven by record consumption in each country (table G).
In 2025, Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, the European Union (EU), India, Paraguay, the UnitedStates, and Uruguay are all projected to expand exports, mostly due to larger supplies andcontinued high global trading prices. India’s exports are projected to expand by the largest
amount, up 1.0 million tons to 18.0 million, with India accounting for a third of global trade. In
contrast, Burma, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are projected to export less rice in 2025,
mostly due to tighter supplies (table H).
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Figure 6

Rice exports from India and the United States are projected to increase in 2025
Million metric tons
70
60

Rest-of-World 1/

United States

Pakistan

Vietnam2015
Calendar year

2019

Thailand

India

50
40
30
20
10
0

2005

2010

2025

Rice exports are reported on a milled basis for each calendar year; 2024 and 2025 are forecasts.
1/ Primarily Burma, China, Cambodia, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Australia.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database.

Global rice trade in 2024 is projected at 54.6 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from the previous
forecast and almost 1.4 million tons larger than a year earlier. Export forecasts for 2024 wereraised this month for Guyana, India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam that
more than offset a reduction in Uruguay’s exports. On the 2024 import side, projections areraised this month for Brazil, El Salvador, Guinea, Iraq, Kenya, Mozambique, and the Philippinesthat are not fully offset by a reduced import forecast for Benin.
On an annual basis, in 2024, expanded exports by Burma, Cambodia, Guyana,
Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam are projected to more than offset reduced shipmentsfrom Brazil, China, India, Paraguay, Thailand, and Uruguay. Pakistan is projected to show thelargest export expansion, up 1.17 million tons to a record 5.7 million. U.S. exports in 2024 areprojected to increase 743,000 tons to 3.1 million. In contrast, India 2024 exports are projected todrop 733,000 tons to 17.0 million largely due to export bans and restrictions.
On the 2024 import side, substantial year-over-year increases in imports by Angola, Brazil,
Burkina Faso, Cameron, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Ethiopia, Iran,Iraq, Kenya, South Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Thailand,
and the United States more than offset projected declines in purchases by Bangladesh, China,
Ghana, Haiti, North Korea, Malaysia, Mali, Singapore, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, andTurkey. Vietnam’s imports in 2024 are unchanged from the year-earlier near-record 2.75 million
tons.

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Figure 7

Price quotes from Thailand and South America rose over the past month
United States

U.S. dollars per ton

Jan-17Jan-18ThailandJan-19Vietnam

Jan-20Month/year

Jan-21

India

Jan-22

Argentina

Jan-23June-24

Note: June 2024 = through June 11 only. No India quotes after July 2023.
Free on Board local port. Monthly average of weekly milled-rice price quotes. Quotes used: Thailand,100percent Grade B; India, 5-percent brokens, container since February 2021, bulk prior months; Vietnam, 5percent brokens; Argentina, 5-percent brokens; United States, No. 2, 4-percent brokens.
Source: Thailand: Rice Price, U.S. Embassy, Bangkok; United States, India, Argentina, and Vietnam prices:
Creed Rice Market Report.

Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades of regular (neither parboiled nor
aromatic) whole-grain milled rice from Thailand increased 2‒4 percent, mostly due to somestrengthening of the Thai baht and exporters securing supplies for markets in Southeast Asia
and Africa. For the week ending June 11, Thailand’s 100-percent Grade B long-grain milled ricefor export was quoted at $636 per ton, up $23 from the week ending May 7. However, quotes
are currently $19 per ton below the average quote for the week ending May 21, as the baht
briefly lost some of its earlier strength. Thailand’s rice trading prices continue to be supported byIndia’s export bans and restrictions.
In contrast, price quotes for 5-percent brokens from Vietnam for the week ending June 11
declined, dropping $15 per ton from the week ending May 7 to $580 per ton, as harvest of thesummer crop is well underway and demand from the Philippines and Sub-Saharan Africa has
temporarily slowed. Price quotes for rice from Pakistan were reported at $590 per ton for the
week ending June 11, up $15 from the week ending May 7, with demand strong. Price quotes
for regular-milled white rice from India have been unavailable since the country’s imposition ofan export ban on July 20, 2023. In South America, price quotes from Argentina rose $105 per
ton to $830, as excessive rainfall and flooding from late April to late May reduced production in
Brazil and Uruguay. Argentina’s harvest was recently completed (figure 7). Similar to Argentina,
price quotes from Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay also rose over the past month.
U.S. trading prices for long-grain and medium-grain milled rice were unchanged over the pastmonth. Prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice, Number 2 Grade, 4-percent broken kernels (Iraqi
specifications) were quoted at $800 per ton for the week ending June 11, unchanged since theend of February. U.S. prices are currently the highest since August 2008. U.S. price quotes for
Latin American markets are also unchanged from a month earlier, quoted at $770 per ton(midpoint of reported price range) for the week ending June 11. Price quotes for California
medium-grain milled-rice, Number 1 Grade, 4-percent brokens, remain quoted at $835 per ton(free on board at a domestic mill) for the week ending June 11, unchanged since early April.
The California price quote is down $815 per ton from the mid-September record high and is the25
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USDA, Economic Research Service

lowest since February 2021. For listings of trading prices by exporter and grade of rice, seetable 10 in the Rice Outlook Monthly Table file that is posted on the Rice Outlook web page
concurrently with the most recent issue of the Rice Outlook report.

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Suggested Citation

Childs, N., & LeBeau, B. (2024). Rice outlook: June 2024 (Report No. RCS-24E). U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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