Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita’sContributions to IPCC
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology

…On behalf of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…
Morita-san’s generosity, tirelessefforts, and superb work … on climatechange, development and modelingissues have made a significant
contribution to the community ofwhich he was so important a part. We
already feel his absence heavily.

…On behalf of the Board of theMillennium Ecosystem Assessment…
We will miss Dr. Morita enormously.
His scientific contributions tounderstanding and responding to
global change as well as his personal
impact on the community of scientists
working to help make the world abetter place will never be forgotten.

…On behalf of the International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)…
We at IIASA have lost a long-time
devoted friend and supporter, who has
not only had close professional ties withthe Institute, but has also shared closefriendship with some of our scientists. We
will truly miss Professor Morita and willcherish the memory of this exceptionalman.

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

Robust technology/policy measures
Stabilization scenarios (Post-SRES)
Long-term Development Scenarios
GHG emission scenarios (SRES)
Climate change scenarios
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

95%

475%
Median2
1990 range
25%
01900

Nakicenovic

5%
1950

2000

2050

Non-intervention

6

Non-classified

8Intervention

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions(index, 1990=1)

102100IIASA & VUT 2003

Carbon Emissions: Scenariosand Stabilization Profiles
35 Gt in 2100
A1FI (A1C & A1G)
2520

S450 Stabilization
S550 at 450, 550, 650
S650 ppmv CO2
WGI trajectory
WRE

A2

A1B
B2GtC

15

10S650501800

Nakicenovic

A1T
B1

1900

2000

2100

S550
S450
2200

IIASA & VUT 2003

2000

2070

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

sGlobal Mean Temperature Change
Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

25
Maxim um inliterature
Maxim umin SRES

20

GtC

15

105
Minim umin SRES
Minim um in literature

01980

2000

2020

Nakicenovic

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120A2-750 AS F

A2-750 M ES S AGE

A1FI-750 M ES S AGE
A1FI-750 M iniCAM

A1FI-750 M ES S AGE
A1B-750 P ETRO

A2-750 P ETROA1B-650 AIM

A1B-650 M ARIA
B2-650 M ARIA

A1T-650 M ARIA
A1B-650 M ES S AGE

A1FI-650 M ES S AGE
A1FI-650 M iniCAM

A1FI-650 M ES S AGE
A1B-650 P ETRO

A2-650 P ETROA1B-550 AIM

A2-550 AIM
B2-550 AIM

B1-550 AIM
A1FI-550 AIM

A2-550 AS F

A1B-550 IM AGE

A1B-550 LDNE
B1-550 LDNE

A2-550 LDNE
B2-550 LDNE

A1FI-550 LDNE
A1B-550 M ARIA

A1T-550 LDNE
A1T-550 M ARIA

B1-550 M ARIA

B2-550 M ARIA

A1B-550 M ES S AGE
B2-550 M ESS AGE

A2-550 M ES S AGE
A1FI-550 M ES S AGE

A1FI-550 M ES S AGE

A1T-550 M ES S AGE

A1B-550 M iniCAM
B1-550 M iniCAM

A2-550 M iniCAM
B2H-550 M iniCAM

B2L-550 M iniCAM
A1B-550 P ETRO

A1FI-550 M iniCAM
A2-550 P ETRO

B1-550EA W orldS ca n

B1-550-DR W orldS ca n

B2-550-EA W orldS ca nA1B-550-DR W orldS ca nA1B-550-EA W orldS ca n
A2-550-EA W orldS ca n

A2-550-DR W orldS ca nA1B-450 AIM

B1-450 IM AGE
A1B-450 M ARIA

A1T-450 M ARIA
B1-450 M ARIA

B2-450 M ARIA
A1FI-450 M ES S AGE

A1B-450 M ES S AGE
A1FI-450 M ES S AGE

A1T-450 M ES S AGE

B1-450 M iniCAM

A1F1-450 M iniCAM
A2-450 P ETROA1B-450 P ETRO
B1-450-DR W orldS ca n

B1-450-EA W orldS ca n

B2-450-EA W orldS ca n

B2-450-DR W orldS ca nA1B-450-DR W orldS ca nA1B-450-EA W orldS ca nA2-450-EA W orldS ca n

W RE550SRES -M inim um

W GI550
S RES -M a x im um

Da ta ba se M a x

Da ta ba se M in.

IIASA & VUT 2003

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Nakicenovic

IPCC 2001

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Nakicenovic

IIASA 2003

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

Nakicenovic

IIASA & VUT 2003

Our dear friend andcolleague is gone,
leaving a void in ourcommunity and in ourlives that can neverbe filled...
He will live forever inour hearts, in ourthoughts and in ourscientific work ‒ andwe’ll continue to misshim every day!