Improvement ofAIM/Impact[Policy]
Yasuaki Hijioka（hijioka@nies.go.jp）
14th AIM International Workshop
February 16th, 2009
Ohyama Hall, NIES, Japan

Presentation Outline
1.

Objectives

2.

Overview of AIM/Impact[Policy]

3.

Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]
•

4.
NIES

The Project for Comprehensive Projection ofClimate Change Impacts [S-4 project]

Future planObjectives
Development of integrated assessment model,
AIM/Impact[Policy], for comprehensive analysis andassessment of GHG stabilization concentration targets
and emission pathways for realizing them, as well asimpacts and risks under such targetsAssist policymakers’decision in action programs toarrest global warming

NIES

GHG Con.

GHG Con. Low

PresentFuture
Effort for GHG
reduction small

Temp. inc. Low

FutureFutureImpact Large

Effort for GHG
reduction Large

PresentNIES

Temp. inc. High

Present

CC impacts

Projection offuture GHG
emissions andclimate change
impacts understabilization
targets

GHG Con. HighGHG emissions

Integrated
assessment model,
AIM/Impact[Policy]

Temp. increase

Concept ofIntegrated Assessment model

Present

Impact smallFutureOverview of integrated
assessment model
GHG Emissions

Integratedassessment(Emission/Climate/Impacts)

Energy-economic model
Global GHG emission path

Simple climate model

GMTI

Impact/Adaptation
Patternscaling
module
GCM results

National/ Sector-wise impacts
ClimateScenario
by country

Potentialimpact
estimation
moduleClimate change Impact Adaptation
Response Function

Example of global GHG emissions toachieve 50% GHG reduction
14108
6
4
2

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

01990

Kyoto Gas Emissions (GtCeq/yr)

12YearCase 1NIESCase 2

Case 3

Case 4

Case 5

Case 6

Base year: Case1,2(1990), Case3,4(2000), Case5,6: 2004

Impact assessment and adaptation model
Database type model (pre-simulated results of process
type models)
Using existing detailed sector-level impact assessment
models, the impact on each lattice point is estimated bysensitivity analysis using the two climate factors oftemperature and precipitation
Spatially averaged country-level and sector-level impact
functions are to be prepared.
This database can also contain knowledge obtained by otherimpact studies.

NIESChange of potential crop productivity(rice)
Precipitation -50%
Temperature+0ºC

Temperature+3ºCTemperature+6ºC

Temperature+9ºC0Precipitation 0%23456 (t/ha)

Precipitation 100%

150140130120110100908070605040
2d 1d 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Precipitation change

Example of Impact ResponseFunction

Temperature change
NIES

0-25

25-50

50-75

75-100100-125

Example of global impact assessment-Probability of Heat Stress Mortality-

2 degree celsius increase

BaUNIES

105

105

100

100

Potential rice productivity

95
90

2ºC85
80

9590

BaU

8580

NIES
11BCCRbcm2-PCM_B1
CCCmat63-PCMB1
CGCM-PCMA1BCSIRO_A2
ECHAM-PCM_A1B
FGOALS-PCM_B1
GFDLcm21-PCM_A2
HADCM3_A2
IPSLcm4-PCM_A1B
MIROCm-PCM_A2
NCARpcm1-PCM_A2

2100

2080

2060

2000

21002080

2040

2020

2000

2060

YearYear
BCCRbcm2-PCM_A2
CCCmat63-PCMA1B
CCSR_B2
CSIRO_A1
ECHAM4-PCM_A1B
FGOALS-PCM_A1B
GFDLcm21-PCM_A1B
GISSer-PCM_B1
INMCM3-PCM_B1
MIROCm-PCM_A1B
NCARpcm1-PCM_A1B
Ave.

2040

7575

2020

Potential rice productivity

Example of uncertainty analysis

CCCm_A2CCSR_A1
CGCM-PCMA2CSIRO_B1ECHAM-PCM_A2
GFDL_A2
GFDLcm21-PCM_B1
HADCM3_A2b
IPSLcm4-PCM_A2
MIROCm-PCM_B1
UKMOhadcm-PCM_A1B

CCCm_B2
CCSR_A1T
CGCM-PCMB1CSIRO_B2
ECHAM-PCM_B1
GFDL_B2
GISSaom-PCM_A1B
HADCM3_A2c
IPSLcm4-PCM_B1
MIROCold_A1B
UKMOhadcm-PCM_A2
Y ea r

CCCma-PCMA1B
CCSR_A2
CNRMcm3-PCMA1B
CSIROmk3-PCMA1B
ECHO-PCM_A1B
GFDLcm20-PCM_A1B
GISSaom-PCM_B1
HADCM3_B2
MIROC_A1B
NCARccsm3-PCM_A1B
UKMOhadcm-PCM_B1

CCCma-PCMA2
CCSR_AF
CNRMcm3-PCMA2CSIROmk3-PCMA2ECHO-PCM_A2
GFDLcm20-PCM_A2
GISSeh-PCM_A1B
INMCM3-PCM_A1B
MIROCh-PCM_A1B
NCARccsm3-PCM_A2
UKMOhadgem1-PCM_A1B

CCCma-PCMB1
CCSR_B1
CNRMcm3-PCMB1CSIROmk3-PCMB1ECHO-PCM_B1
GFDLcm20-PCM_B1
GISSer-PCM_A2
INMCM3-PCM_A2
MIROCh-PCM_B1
NCARccsm3-PCM_B1
UKMOhadgem1-PCM_A2

Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]
Revision of parameters reflecting AR4 scientificinformation, such as climate sensitivity, radiative
forcing
Improvement of carbon cycle module
From box type model to impulse function type model

Additional integration of impact response functions
Research outcomes by the Project for Comprehensive
Projection of Climate Change Impacts [S-4 project]

NIES

The Project for Comprehensive
Projection of Climate Change Impacts
Global Environment Research Fund S-4 by Ministry ofthe Environment
Targeted area: Asian region including Japan
Targeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture,
coastal zones, human healthResearch period:
Period I (2005-2007) + Period II (2008-2009)

Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki University
Number of sub-themes: Seven
Number of participating research institutions: 20 (2007)
Number of participating researchers: 44 (2007)
NIES

Objectives of the research project
To obtain quantitative knowledge on climatechange impacts in key fields in the Asian region
including Japan, targeting the period up to theend of the present century while focusing on
the period up to around 2050.
Water resources, Forests, Agriculture, Coastal zones,and Human health

To comprehensively grasp the impacts on
Japan and elucidate the relationships with thelevel of global warming.
NIES

S-4 research method
Improvement ofImpact Projection
WaterRisk Map
Without adaptation measures

Adaptationmeasures

Human
healthWith adaptation measures

Forests Coasts

Integrated
assessment model
20

GHG emissions

1100

GHG concentrations

Proposal of economic
assessment method
Development of monetaryassessment basic unit
Temperature changes
5.0

4.0

15

900

10

700

5500

1.0

0

300

0.0

3.0
2.0

0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30

Impacts

2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Population
scenario

Economic assessment

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Climatescenario

1990
2000
2010
20202030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Development ofImpact Functions

Common scenario

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Agri.

IntegratedAssessment

Climate Change Impacts on Japan- Latest Scientific Findings Press Release:29th May, 2008
Results for the first
three years
Full report: 94 pages
Brief summary: 15 pages
http://wwwcger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj-impacts4report.html
NIESReported risk maps

http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj-impact-s4report.html

NIES

１年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率（人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの）
01

10 100 500

Summary of the report
1.

While impact levels and rates of increase will vary byregion, there are especially vulnerable regions for eachfield.

2.

Although the level of impact and rate of increase vary
according to the field, Japan will also experiencesignificant impacts even with a relatively low
temperature rise.

3.

In view of the fact that the impacts of climate change
have been appearing in various fields in recent years,
the immediate planning of appropriate adaptation
measures is necessary.

NIESImpact Response Functions (Japan)
Flood area and economic lossTohoku University

Risk of slope disaster and economic loss
Tohoku University

Suitable habitat for Japanese beech

Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute and NIES

Risk area of pine wilt

Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute

Rice yield

National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences

Area, affected population and economic loss ofstorm-surge flooding
National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

Heat stress mortality risk
Tsukuba University and NIES

NIES

2.0

100

1.550

1.00

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Rice yield

1.11.0
Rice yield
0.95.0Change in area ofChange in heat storm-surge flooding
stress mortality risk

Pine wilt
Japanese beech

Economic loss

Change in expectedeconomic loss
from heavy rain
once every 50 years

Slope disasters

Change in expectedeconomic loss
from heavy rain
once every 50 years

Economic loss

543
2
10
1.05
1.04
1.03
1.02
1.01
1.00
0.99
150

Rate of decreasein suitable habitat
for Japanesebeech (%)

Flooded area

Change in thearea at risk frompine wilt damage

1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
1.10
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.98
2.5

Change in averagevalue of slopedisaster risk inJapan

Change inflooded area

Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts

4.0
3.0

Population affected
Area of storm-surge
flooding

2.0
1.0
6Heat stress
5mortality risk
43210.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Average temperature increase in Japan (1990 = 0ºC)

Conclusion and Future plan
AIM/Impact[Policy] has been improved and applied to several
projects
Energy-economic model has been applied to develop stabilization scenario,
such as AR5 RCP and Japanese middle term GHG reduction targets
Impact assessment and adaptation model has been applied Japanese
impact assessment
1. Implementation of new Japanese impact response functions,such as risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, fruit
productivity, etc

2. Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Development of new functions to assess adaptation options• Development of distributed version• User and Technical Manual and report•NIES

Thank you for your attention!