Purpose ofthis workshop
andIntroductionof Japan
Scenario

Designed by Hajime Sakai

Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)

NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan
2007 AIM Training Workshop, October 22, 2007

We support country-wise LCS modelingthrough SD for Asia-Pacific and the world- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 -Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

Oct 16-20, 2006 at NIES

India

China

Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia Brazil

RussiaSouth Taiwan,
Africa China

USA

Japan

http://2050.nies.go.jp

2007 AIM Training WS
How to develop residential/transportation
scenarios for LCS study
1. how to depict future image of each sector (especiallyresidential sector and transportation sector) anddiscuss among participants.
2. to show our modeling approach to calculate energy
demand in each sector and discuss how to apply our
method to each country considering data limitation.
3. develop each country residential/transportationenergy demand toward 2050.

We are now collecting
country-level
LCS scenarios!

6$200/t-C scenario

US
5
4
UK

3

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term visionGerm any

2

FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario

W orld
China

2050

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

2040

IB1

India

0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA2

2030

1

Current per capita
CO2 emissions
and Target
US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada1970

CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)

7

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Gt-C

CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

LCS Scenario

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year

Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in China
EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

2050

Reduction Targets
9,000

Emissions, mmt of CO2-e

8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Bingaman-Specter Draft 2007

Lieberman-McCain 2007*

Udall-Petri 2006

Waxman 2007

Sanders-Boxer 2007

Kerry-Snowe 2007

2050

Feinstein August 2006

web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/reports.html#pubsWhy we develop
Japan LCS Scenarios?
1. Why we need LCS?
2. Can Japan achieve LCS toward 2050?
3. How to structure global participation?

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

1978

Himalayan “the abode1998 of snow” GlaciersNorth Pole Ice in Sep.

Source: NASACCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan

Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)

http://2050.nies.go.jp

GHG-475ppm

2100

2090

2080

2070

0

年
Year

BaU

650
550
500
2060

0.0

5

2050

GHG: Greenhouse gases

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2040

1.0

10

2030

GHG475ppm

15

2020

475

BaU

2010

2.0

20

2000

650
550
500

3.0

Global GHG emissions

1990

BaU

Temperature raise(global average)

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

4.0

25

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature raise(1990年=0.6℃)(above the気温上昇
pre-industrial
level)

5.0

年
Year

GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm•It is estimated that around 50% GHG
reductions in 2050 are required tocontrol temperature raise below 2C•Japan may be required more reduction (60-80%).
Another country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied(UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on).

GHG-650ppm•Impacts will beoccurred even in
2C temp control.
•Adaptation isnecessary.
Calculated by
AIM/Impact[policy]
Model

650
550
500

GHG475ppm 475
1.0

GHG: Greenhouse gases
0.0

15

650
10

• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

Carbon Captureand Storage (CCS)

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demand

Large GHG cut is possible in Japan

UK

3

2100

2090

2080

2070

EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term vision

G erm any

2

FranceM ETI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario

W orld
1

China

IB1

India

0

Target for
Low Carbon Society

IA2

2050

Carbon Intensity
Imp. (CI)

CCS
42

4

2040

• Nuclear energy• Effective use of electricity in night time with storage• Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources

42

EE & CI73

US: delay for tech development,
global warming business

Canada2030

EE & CI

73

5

2020

EnergyTransformation• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuelcell battery vehicles

12

CI
27

2010

Reduction of service
demands (SD)34

CO2 emissions
and Target$200/t-C scenario

US

2000

• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function• Public transportation system

EE
84

1990

Energy Efficiency
Imp. (EE)
CarbonIntensity Imp. (CI)61060-80%

GHG-650ppm

6

1980

• Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting system• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof

28

1970

Reduction of service
demands (SD)19

Japanese
reduction
target in 2050

How to structure
7
global participationCurrent per capita
CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system

SD
29

9

CO2 reductions in energy
end-use sector（MtC）

Carbon Intensity
Imp. (CI)

Increase of
CO2 Emissions• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas

22

CO2 reductions in energy
transformation sector（MtC）

Transportation

Energy Efficiency
Imp. (EE)

Reduction of CO2 emissions （MtC）

Residential andcommercial• Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motoretc.

Activity
31

GHG-550ppm

CO2 emissions
in 2050

Industrial

Demand growth byactivity level change

CO2 emissions in 2000

Society• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of households

2060

年
Year

Possible trend-breakingoptions toachieve
BaU
GHG-475ppm
GHG-500ppm
70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan
Factors Class.

2050

2040

2030

1990

2020

0

年
Year

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions

550
500

50%
reduction

5

2010

2.0

LowCarbon
Society
Project

BaU

2000

Calculated by
AIM model

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

3.0

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature raise
気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)(above the pre-industrial
level)

5.0 control temperature raise
25
To
Global
GHG emissions should
BaU be reduced by 50% in 2050
below 2oC
Japan
4.0
20

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

Junichi Fujino, Jan 12 2007 at Iddri, Paris, fuji@nies.go.jp

How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions
CarbonPer capita Energy
Intensity
Intensity
activity
Total amount
Activity
EnergyCO2
CO2 emissions＝Pop ×××Pop
Activity
Energy60-80% reductions
integral

Total

Changerate

differential

Kaya identity

Change rate＝speed

EnergyCO2
Activity
CO2emission Pop＝＋ Pop ＋ Activity ＋ Energy
Change rate Change ratechange rate change rate change rate
-2~3%/year -0.5%/year 1.5%/year
The case of Japan LCS

1%/year

Y%/year

X%/year-3~4%/yearRequired improvement rate ofcarbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity (CCS only)

Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS)

Historical trend
Japan Scenario A
Japan ScenarioB

60-80%
reductions
towards 2050

U.K.
FranceGermany
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y)

Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity
compared as that of the historical record!

Forecasting from now and Backcastingfrom future prescribed/normative world

Mitigation
Technology
development

Required
3. We need
Policy“Innovation”
intervention and
Investment
to realize visions

Checking
year(2025)

Checking
year(2015)

2000

Back-casting

2020

1.”Target”
is toughLong-term target year

requiredintervention policy
and measures

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

Required intervention

Reference
futureworld

Forecasting

Release of
AIM result

Environmental pressure

Technology development,socio-economic change
projected by historicallytrend

2. We need
“Visions”

Normative
target world

50% reductions
2050 In the world

Why we develop
Japan LCS Scenarios?
1. Why we need LCS?
2. Can Japan achieve LCS toward 2050?
3. How to structure global participation?

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
FY2004-2006 (PhaseI),2007-2008 (Phase II)
Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ
Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Techno-Socio Innovation Study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized
services

Eco awareness
Effective
communication
Dematerializa
tion

EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechangeGHG reduction target

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

2010

2050

Intervention
scenario

2020（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

2000

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

IT-society

Transportation
systemEnergy saving Tech. innovationBaU scenario

1990

Development of socioeconomic scenarios,
evaluating countermeasures with socialeconomic-technology
models

GHG emission

Urban structure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation
systemAdvanced logistics

Advisory board：
advice to project
Decopling
Eco modernization
High value industry

Industrial structure

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid
5
3
1
-1

EquitySuitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

5 teams
60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy
http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan LCS (Low-Carbon Society) (FY2004-2008)
Research Project supported by
Global Environmental Research Fund, MOEJScenario Approach to Develop
Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
Depictingsocioeconomic
visions
in 2050
Step1

Estimatingenergyservicedemands
Step2

Exploring
innovations
for energy
demands
and energy
supplies
Step3

Checking
potentials
for energy
supplyQuantifying
energydemandand supply
to estimate
CO2
emissions
Step4
Achieving energyrelated CO2
emissions target

Step5

As for LCS visions, we prepared two
different but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon”

Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F.
Fujio. The series is about arobotic cat named Doraemon,
who travels back in time fromthe 22nd century. He has apocket, which connects to thefourth dimension and acts likea wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005
World Expo. Satsuki and Mei
are daughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived
an old house in rural Japan,
near which many curious andmagical creatures inhabited.

Scenario A “Doraemon”
Vivid, Technology-driven
Urbanized and PersonalTechnocentric
Centralized production/recycle
Pursuit of convenient
Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F.
Fujio. The series is about arobotic cat named Doraemon,
who travels back in time fromthe 22nd century. He has apocket, which connects to thefourth dimension and acts likea wormhole.
21

Scenario B “Satsuki and Mei”
Slow, natural-oriented
Decentralized/Community
Self-sufficient
Local production for local
consumption
Eco-centric
Put more focus on social andcultural values
Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005 World
Expo. Satsuki and Mei aredaughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived an
old house in rural Japan, nearwhich many curious and magicalcreatures inhabited.
Akemi Imagawa

22

Narrative description of Scenario A
Technical progresses in the industrial sectors are considerably high because of vigorous
R&D investments by the government and business sectors. The economic activities as awhole are so dynamic that average annual per capita GDP growth rate is kept at the levelof 2%. The other reasons for such high economic growth are high rates of consumption inboth business and household sectors.
The employment system has been drastically changed from that in 2000 and equal
opportunities for the employment have been achieved. Since workers are employed basedon their abilities or talents regardless of their sex, nationality and age, the motivation of
the worker is quite high in general.
As many women work outside, the average time spent for housekeeping has decreased.
Most of the household works are replaced by housekeeping robots or services provided byprivate companies. Instead, the time used for personal career development has increased.
The new technologies, products, services are positively accepted in the society.
Therefore, purchasing power of the consumer is strong and upgrade cycles of thecommodities are short.
Household size becomes smaller and the number of single-member households has
increased. Multi-dwellings are preferred over detached houses, and the urban lifestyle ismore popular than the lifestyle of countryside.

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Narrative description of Scenario B
Although average annual growth rate of per capita GDP is approximately 1%, people
can receive adequate social services no matter where they live. Volunteer works orcommunity based mutual aid activities are the main provider of the services. Since
the levels of medical and educational service in the countryside have drastically
improved, continuous migration of population from city to countryside has been
observed.
The number of family who own detached dwellings has increased. The trend is
especially prominent in the countryside. The size of the houses and the floor area
per houses has also increased with the increasing share of detached houses.
The ways people work have also changed. The practice that husbands work outside
and wives work at home is not common anymore. In order to avoid the excessive workof the partner, the couples help each other and secure the income according to theirlife plan. Housework is shared mainly among family members, but free housekeeping
services provided by local community or social activity organizations are also available.
As a result of the changes in lifestyle, the time spent within family has increased.
The time spent on hobby, sports, cultural activities, volunteer activities, agricultural
works, and social activities has also increased.

http://2050.nies.go.jp

LCS Japan Scenarios for
Economy and Industry
EconomyScenario A

Scenario B

Growth rate・Per capita GDP growth
rate:2%・Per capita GDP growth
rate:1%

Technological
Development

・High・Not as high as scenario A

Scenario A

Scenario B

Market・Deregulation

・Adequate regulated rules
applyPrimary Industry

・Declining GDP share・Dependent on importproducts

・Recovery of GDP share
・Revival of public interest in
agriculture and forestry

Secondary
Industry・Increasing add value
・Shifting production sites tooverseas・Declining GDP share・high-mix low-volume
production with local brand

Tertiary industry

・Increase in GDP share
・Improvement of
productivity

・Gradual increase in GDP
share
・Penetration of social activity

Industry

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Population and Household Model• Drastic change is projected in Japan’s population structure by 2050.
Downturn in birthrate, depopulation and aging will continue until 2050, andthey affect greatly the future vision.
• A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate modelfor household types, with spatial resolution of provinces, land-use types
and climate zones and five family types was developed, and is used toanalyze effects of depopulation and changes in family composition on therealization of LCS.
Total population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Life table[Sex, Age]

Consistency

Province-wiselife table[Sex, Age]

Province-wise
Population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Fertility rate
[Age]
Consistency

International
Net-migration(Japanese)
Total population(Period T)[Sex, Age]International
net-migration(Outsider)

Adjustment
Consistency

Headship rate
[Sex, Age, Family]

Total number ofHousehold(Period T)[Family-wise]

Province-wise
fertility rate
[Age]

: Data flow
: Exogenous variable: Endogenous variable

Province-wisenet-migration[Sex, Age]

Province-wiseheadship rate
[Sex, Age, Family]
Province-wiseclimatic division
share
Province-wiselanduse Cls.
share

Flowchart of PHM

Landuse Cls.-wise
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]

Province-wise
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]

Climatic zone
-wise household(Period T)[ Family]

Province-wisehousehold(Period T)[Family]

26

age

100

8060-79

80

40-59
20-39
0-19

60
40
20

100%

80%

Others60%

ParentChildren
One-Person

40%

Couple-Only

20%

0

CoupleChildren

year
Population (million)
Aged population ratio (%)
Average number of household
Single-person households (%)

2000
126.9
17.4
2.71
27.6

A
94.5
38.0
2.19
42.6

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2005

0%
2000

Population(Million)(Thousand)120

Type of household (%)

140

Projection Japan population and households in
scenario A

2050

B
100.3
35.8
2.38
35.1
http://2050.nies.go.jp

Projection of urbanization

Population (mill.)

140

Forest-rural

120

Forest-central city

100

Forest-Metropolitan
Agricultural-rural

80

Agricultural-central city
Agricultural-metropolitan

60

Urban-Regional

40

Urban-Central

20

Urban-Core

0

Urban-Metropolitan

2000

Rural

ABABABABABABABABABABAB
2010

year

2020

2030

2040

Urban

2050

2000

Population (million)
126.9
Urban population(%)
78.1
Agricultural area population(%) 8.2
Forest area population(%)
13.7

A
94.5
84.2
7.1
8.7

2050

B
100.3
76.7
8.5
14.8
28

Building Dynamics Model• Enhancement of building insulation is very effective countermeasures.
60% of the heating demand from the residential sector can be cut down,
if appropriate insulation systems are installed. Besides, configuration ofbuildings in urban and rural area affects social energy efficiency greatly.
• In order to take accountthese factors, a model ofbuilding dynamics (BDM)
was developed.

Number of dwelling stock(year T-1)

Number ofhouseholds

Population andHousehold Model

Number of new dwellings(year T)

Share by type ofbuilding

Survival rat• It is a cohort model with aspatial resolution ofclimate zones, four heatinsulation levels, four
residential building types,
and six commercial
building types.

Unoccupied rate

[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level,
construction year]

Share by region
Share byconstruction material

Survived number of dwellings(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material,
insulation level, construction year]

Share byinsulation level

Number of new dwellings(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level]

Renovation rate

Number of dwelling stock(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material,
insulation level, construction year]

Householdproduction andlifestyle model
Bottom-up
engineeringmodel：endogenous variable：exogenous variable

Flowchart of BDM (residential)
29

Projection of residential building stock byinsulation level60

1999 standard

Million houses

50

1992 standard
1980 standard

40

Projection
based onenhanced
policyWithout insulation

30

1999 standard

20

1992 standard

10

1980 standard

0

Projection
based onpresent
policyWithout insulation
2003

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

30

Passenger Transportation Demand Model• Many effective countermeasures exist related with transportation. Modal shift
from private motor vehicles to mass transit systems, urban planning towards
compact cities, transportation substitution with diffusions of teleworking andvirtual communication systems and so on.
• Passenger Transportation Demand
Model (PTDM) can simulatetransportation demand associatedwith changes in population
distribution, people’s activity
patterns, modal shares and average
trip distances.
• The demands in this model are
divided into two types,1)Intra-regional transportation
within the daily living area,2)Inter-region transportation
between the daily living areas,

Macro Economic Model
Population Dynamic Model

Population[Attribute, Area]
Employment[Attribute]
License[Attribute]

Population[Attribute, Area]

Population[Attribute]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Day, Area, Objective]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Day, Area, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Day, Area, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Mode]
Intra-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Inter-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]：Data Flow

Net-Total
Conversion ratio：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables
Passenger Transportation[Persons-km]

and they are calculated separately.
Intra-Area Transportation

Inter-Area Transportation

31

Passenger Transportation Demand Model (2)Scenario A
1,200,000

450,000
400,000

1,000,000

350,000
800,000

300,000
250,000

600,000

200,000
400,000

150,000
100,000

200,000

50,000
0

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Inter-region transportation demand by mode Intra-region transportation demand by modeof transportation (mil. person-km)
Buses

Aviationof transportation (mil. person-km)
Pass.cars

Maritime

Railways

W alk&Bike• Coupled with population decrease, and intensive decreasing policy of average trip
distance, such as the compaction of neighborhood communities causes significant
decrease of intra-regional transportation demand.
• In addition, the share of railways transportation will increase rapidly due to thepromotion of modal shift from car to train.

32

Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model• Projecting macro economic activity, sectoral production, and also taking account thecountermeasures proposed in the individual models, we developed “Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model (IMEM)”, which consists of a sequential dynamic general equilibrium
module and a macroeconomic module.
• The model can be used to estimate national and sectoral economic activities, the impactsof energy efficient and dematerialization technologies in industrial sectors, developmentof informatization, and increase of service sectors.
Macroeconomic module

energyoutput coefficient
on non-energy

input

data in
2000

commodity demand

import&export

SNA

IO tablein 2000⑩②⑥
production and income⑪
outputext. trnsact.
account

input coefficient
on non-energy⑥

output matrix

assumption⑧①

V matrixin 2000

tech

account ofinc. & expnd.

tech&preference

input matrix

energy balance table(output)

nonenergy①

CO2⑥
production and cost

output coefficient ①
on energy
tech

⑫

⑦

balancecondition

fixed capitalformation
matrix in 2000
tech②

capital profile
in sector⑨
productionsocialfixed capital stock
matrix⑪
capital stock⑩

compensationof cap. goods

③

⑫

②

commodity supply

capitalintermediatedemand

cap.
goods

④

labor

final demand sector

energy balance table(input)value nonadded energy

energy balancetable in 2000⑤

investment

energytech⑦

economic
growthproduction sector①

final cons

Input coefficienton energy

CGE module① production function② commodity market③ capital market④ labor market⑤ calculation of GDE⑥ expenditure and income
in production sector⑦ expenditure and income
in household andgovernment⑧ assumption of import andexport⑨ fixed capital stock
matrix⑩ investment goods market⑪ capital stock⑫ CO2 emissions

Structure of Inter-sector Module
33

300

0

<Sectors>

Agriculture
Forestry
Fishing
Coal mining
Crude oil & NG mining
Other mining
Food products & beverages
TextilesPulp, paper & paper products
Publishing & printing
Chemical materials
Chemical products
Petroleum products
Coal products
Non-metallic mineral
Pig iron & crude steel
Other steel products
Non-ferrous metal
Fabricated metal products
MachineryElec.machine, equip. & supplies
Transport equipment
Precision instruments
Other manufacturing
Construction
Thermal power plant
Non-thermal power plant
Town gas
Water supply
Wholesale & retail trade
Finance & insurance
Real estate
Railway transport
Road transport
Water transport
Air transport
Other transport
Communications
Public service activities
Other service activities

Tri. yen at 2000 priceIndustrial Structure Change in 2050, Japan
calculated by Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

350

2000 2050 A 2050 B

250

200

150

100

50

EnergysupplysectorEnergysupplymodel

Industrial
sector：Model：Output of model：Data flow

Household Prd.
& lifestyle model
Residential energy
service model

Commercial energy
service model

Preferenceof household

Investment
Efficiency

Stock
Production amountPassenger Trns.
demand model
Freight Trns.
demand model

Industrial
production model

Population
Labor

Transportation
sectorService

Material stock & flow model

Commercial
sectorEnvironmental option database, Bottom-up engineering model

Residential
sectorMacroeconomyActivity

Inter-sector and macro economic model

Stock
Building dynamic model

Energy supply& demand

Population
andhouseholdmodel
EnergyExtendedSnapshotTool
Snapshot

EnergyBackcastbalance
table
Model

Check consistency!

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Japan LCS scenarios

Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050
year
Population
Household

unit

2000

Mil.
Mil.

Average number of person
per household
GDP
Share of production
primary
secondarytertiary

2050

127
47

A
94 (74%)43 (92%)B
100 (79%)42 (90%)

2.7

2.2

2.4

Tril.JPY

519

%
%
%

2%
28%
71%

1,080 (208%)
1%
18%
80%

model
Population and Householdmodel

701 (135%)
2%
20%
79%

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model
Building dynamics Model &Office floor space

Mil.m

2

1654

1,934 (117%)

1,718 (104%)

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model

Travel Passenger volume
Private car
Public transport
Walk/bycycle
Freight transport volume

bill. p・km
%
%
%

1,297
53%
34%
7%

1045 (81%)
32%
52%
7%

963 (74%)
51%
38%
8%

bill. t・km

570

608 (107%)490 (86%)100

126 (126%)

90 (90%)Industrial production index
Steel production

Mil.t

107

67 (63%)58 (54%)

Etylen production

Mil.t

8

5 (60%)

3 (40%)

Cement production

Mil.t

82

51 (62%)47 (57%)

Paper production

Mil.t

32

18 (57%)26 (81%)

Transportation demandmodel & Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model

Inter-sector and Macro
Economic Model( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000

36

Key technological countermeasures in theEnvironmental Option Database
SectorResidential &Commercial

Transportation

Industrial

EnergyTransformation

Technology
Efficient air conditioner, Efficient electric water heater, Efficient gas/oilwater heater, Solar water heater, Efficient gas cooking appliances, Efficientelectric cooling appliances, Efficient lights, Efficient visual display, Efficient
refrigerator, Efficient cool/hot carrier system, Fuel cell cogeneration,
Photovoltaic, Building energy management system (BEMS), Efficient insulation,
Eco-life navigation, Electric newspaper/magazine etc.
Efficient reciprocating engine vehicle, Hybrid engine vehicle, Bio-alcohol
vehicle, Electric vehicle, Plug-in hybrid vehicle, Natural gas vehicle, Fuel cellvehicle, Weight reduction of vehicle, Friction and drag reduction in vehicle,
Efficient railway, Efficient ship, Efficient airplane, Intelligent traffic system(ITS), Real-time and security traffic system, Supply-chain management,
Virtual communication system etc.
Efficient technologies for boiler, industrial furnace, Independent Power Plant(IPP), coke oven, and other innovations like Eco-cement, Fluidized catalytic
cracking of naphtha, Methane coupling, and Gasification of black liquid.
Efficient coal-fired generation (IGCC, A-PFBC, Co-combustion with biomassetc), Efficient gas-fired generation, Efficient biomass-fired generation, Wind
generation (On-shore, Off-shore), Nuclear power generation, Hydro power
generation, By-product hydrogen, Natural gas reforming hydrogen production,
Biomass reforming hydrogen production, Electrolysis hydrogen production,
Hydrogen station, Hydrogen pipeline, Hydrogen tanker, CCS (Carbon Captureand Storage), etc.
37

LCS house in 2050

Utilizing solar power

Comfortable andenergy-saving house

Eco-life education

Photovoltaic

10-20% energy(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) demand reduction
34-69MWand develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

rooftopgardeningHigh efficiency
lighting

Solar heating【eg LED lighting】

Diffusion rate: 20-60%

Reduce 1/2
energy demand
Share 100%

（currently 8%）

Monitoring system

High-insulationequipped with appliances

Reduce 60% warming
energy demand,
share 100%

Super highefficiency air
conditioner
COP (coefficients ofperformance=8),
share 100%

Stand-by energy
reduction
Reduce 1/3 energy
demand,share 100%

Fuel cellHeat-pump heating

Good information foreconomy and environment
makes people’s behavior
low-carbon

share 0-20%

COP＝5share 30-70%

High efficiency appliances
reduce energy demand andsupport comfortable and safe lifestyle 5Projected energy efficiency improvement:
Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
9.0
MOE
COP (Coefficient of performance)

8.0
Historical

AIST

7.0
6.0

Best
METI

2050s
Target

METI

5.0
4.0

Average

3.0
Worst
2.0
1.0
0.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Residential sector
Energy demand reduction potential: 50%
70
60
Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

3
50

3
9

4

4
10

40
23

17

30

Change of the numberof households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of energy
demand per household
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption20

Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption
0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy consumption in
2000

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

Achieving a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society
Session 10: Delivering elements of a low carbon society
Opportunities for low-carbon transport: (June 15th 2007 )Long-term CO2 reduction strategy oftransport sector in view of technologicalinnovation and behavioural change
Yuichi Moriguchi
Team Leader, Transport Subproject, JLCS2050
Director, Research Center for
Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES
Chair, OECD/EPOC/WGEIO

Automotive technologies altering engine-drive vehicles
Combination of fuel supply and power-train
Engine drive

Gasoline /Diesel vehicles

fossil fuel supply

Petrol station(CNG vehicles)

Drive wheel

CNG stationengine power generation

combination

Series hybrid
vehiclesElectric power

Drive wheel

Reformer
Fuel cellorFuel cellvehiclesBatteryMotor driveElectric vehicles

Fuel tank
HydrogenstationFuel cell Hydrogen tank
Charging
stationLong charging time

Construction of energy stations are required

Parallel hybrid
vehiclesPaths from primary energy to automotive energy
Petrol station

Automotive energy

Primary energy

Construction of energy stations are requiredgaspipeline（consumer）
Liquid fuelrefinery
harvesting,（traditionaltransport
transport
CNG station fuel, synfuel）

biomassreformer
CNG
hydrogenstationH2

Charging
stationOn sitereformertransport Water electrolysis

hydrogenOn-site waterelectrolysis

Fossil fueltransport

nuclear power

Power generationelectricity
Electric transmission

RenewableenergyCombination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

Well to wheel CO2 emissions
Biomass•

Although CO2 emissions from FCEV are less than HV, FCEV has got problems to besolved such as FC durability, FCEV cost and the way to produce and supply hydrogen.
Therefore, wide spread of HVs is thought to be one of the feasible and effective
measures in 2020.
JHFC(2007)

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

TOD (Transit Oriented Development) in local city

Toyama Light Rail(2006.4.26-)• Lack of public transport for
cities of less population
than one millions.
• It has been difficult tomanage LRT because “selfsupporting accounting
system” was required.
• Upgrading from traditional
tram has started.

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

CO2 emissions of each vehicle
category by trip length ranges
160,000
140,000

Special motor vehicles

t-CO2/day

120,000

Heavy Duty Vehicles

100,000

Light Duty Vehicles

80,000Light freight vehicles

60,000Buses

40,000

Passenger cars

20,0001,000km-300-999km

Ranges of trip length

100-299km

30-99km10-29km

3-9km

Light passenger cars

1-2km

0

(Estimated from Road Census 1999)

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2.50

Tokyo Met.

2.00

Nagoya Met.

Osaka Met.

Other Areas

1.50

Freight vehicles

1.00

Passenger cars

0.50
0.00
[t/year]
0
CO2 per capita

2000

4000

6000

8000 10000 12000 14000

Accumulated population [million]

Each Area is categorized in
1. Major cities
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties

Passenger car emissions(t-CO2/capita)

LCS2050: a draft vision (Regional emissions)
Transport CO2 [t/capita/year]

Technological&
behaviouralcountermeasures

2.00

1.50

1990

Depopulation& shift fromrural to urban

Metro Urban
0.00
0

2000

Provincial Rural

0.50

Provincial Urban

2050

Metro Suburb

1.00

4000
6000
8000
10000
Accumulated population [ten-thousand]Index of the regional categories
Metro
Provincial

Rural
Urban

12000

14000

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20%
each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management
e.g. by informationcommunication technology[transport-service per capita](1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF
per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]⎛ Vkm
TransServ Pkm(Tkm )Fuel CO2 EF ⎞CO2=×× ∑ ⎜⎜
××⎟⎟
capitacapitaTransServ Mode⎝ Pkm(Tkm ) Vkm
Fuel ⎠
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuelconsumption]

New concepts for personal mobility

Yamaha EC-02
the Segway Human
Transporter

Toyotai-Swing

Kawamura cycle KE(catalog information)

LCS2050: a draft vision
Metro
Urban
Compact△less roomneighborhood for improve.

Metro
Suburb

Provincial
Urban

Provincial total
Rural

○

○

○Compact

Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation

Settlement

Compact city △City center ×
renewal△City center ×
renewal217->63Mt
To 1990- 71%
Index:◎: - 30%○: - 20%△: - 10%
×: no room※Freight andregionaltransports are
to beconsidered.

Enhancepublic transit

×passenger△freight△Park &

Improve load
efficiency△Utilize△Utilize△Enhancesmall vehicles

small vehicles

sharing

Improve fuelconsumption◎Urban◎Urban○local mode○local mode

mode

mode

Low carbon
energy△less room

○

○

○

pop(million)

46→45

15→10

27→25

35→15

124→95t-CO2/capita

1.27→0.56

1.72→0.62

2.04→0.68

2.20→1.01

1.76→0.67○LRT

Ride etc.

△van pool,shared taxi

×for improve

Passenger transportation
CO2 reduction potential: 80%

7

Change of totaltransportation amount
Change of structure oftransportation
Decrease of service
demandImprovement ofenergy efficiency
Electricity

32

H2

60
Energy demands (Mtoe)

1

Decrease of6 demand
4
Modal shift

50

4

6
Land use Change

40

Energy Efficiency

30

28

Solar

20

Biomass

10

Gas
Oil

0
2000

2050A

2050B

Energy demands in2000

Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of
CO2 emissions
Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)02000(Actual)

50

100

150

Industrial

200

300

350

400

Trans. Prv.
Residential
Trans. Frg.
Commercial

2050(Scenario A)

40-45% energy demand

Decrease
reduces byof
structuralchangeof demand,energydemandand efficiency
improvement

2050(Scenario B)
Industrial

250

Residential

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20-40％
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60-70％
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50％
Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

57

What is Low Carbon
Energy Supply System?
Large-scale
Supplier

NuclearLarge-scale
Storage

Grid
Electricity

Small-scale
Storage

Distributed
Renewables

Renewables
Fossil Fuel

Stationary
Fuel Cell

Electrolysis

Electricity

Heat Pump
Heat

Fuel Cell
VehicleHydrogenCCS (Carbon
Capture andStorage)

Consumer

BiofuelTrans
portation

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Fujino (2005)

Energy supply for achieving 70% reduction of
CO2 emissions
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)02000(Actual)

100

200

Coal

Oil

Biomass2050(Scenario B)
Oil

400

500

600

Gas

Nuclear

2050(Scenario A)

Coal

300

Gas

Biomass

Centralized style
Decentralized style
Solar and Wind Micro grid

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar and Wind59

http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society

Residential andcommercial
Transportation

Energy Efficiency
Imp. (EE)• Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas

Carbon Intensity
Imp. (CI)• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system

Reduction of service
demands (SD)• Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting system• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof

Energy Efficiency
Imp. (EE)
CarbonIntensity Imp. (CI)• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function• Public transportation system

Reduction of service
demands (SD)

EnergyTransformation• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuelcell battery vehicles

EE & CI• Nuclear energy• Effective use of electricity in night time with storage• Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources

Carbon Intensity
Imp. (CI)• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

Carbon Captureand Storage (CCS)

9
19
28
6
10

EE
84

34
12

CI
27

73

EE & CI
73

42

CCS
42

CO2 reductions in energy
end-use sector（MtC）• Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor
etc.

SD
29

CO2 reductions in energy
transformation sector（MtC）

Industrial

Demand growth byactivity level change

22

CO2 emissions
in 2050Society• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of households

Activity
31

Reduction of CO2 emissions （MtC）

Factors Class.

CO2 emissions in 2000

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions

Increase of
CO2 Emissions

Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳ
with moderate cost of technological options as 1% of GDP in the year of 2050

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demand

LCS has many co-benefits:• Avoid climate change such as extraordinary
climate change, positive feedback.
• Use disposal resources efficiently to reduce risks
and avoid battles.
• Develop LCS innovation to support global
sustainable development.
• Build safe and sound society considering landuse and city planning for ordinary citizens.
We need good institutions to enhance people
who has efforts for these activity

Why we develop
Japan LCS Scenarios?
1. Why we need LCS?
2. Can Japan achieve LCS toward 2050?
3. How to structure global participation?

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

“Aligning sustainable development & climatechange actions can reduce the burden andfacilitate the transition to stabilization. LCS is
technologically and economically feasible.”
Sustainable
Development

Economic/social indicator

National Economic
Targets

Economy-environment
trade-off can be
circumvented with
innovative strategies
and by exploiting cobenefits

Innovation strategies
Exploiting co-benefits
Environmental Quality
National Environment
Goals

http://2050.nies.go.jp

1st workshop on Japan – UK Joint Research Project
Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through sustainable development
54 Participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada

A First workshop was held in Tokyo, June13-16, 2006.

Japan-UK Joint Research Project
LCS through Sustainable Development
for Global Participation
A First workshop was heldin Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.
Participants from 19 countries;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand,
Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany,
Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada

G8 Gleneagles 2005

G8 Japan
July 2008

A Second workshop was heldin London, June13-15, 2007.
A Third workshop will be heldin Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.
Developing and Diffusing Innovations
for our good life and LCS through SD

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development
1st WS
Executive
SummaryJapan-UK LCS study
invite all countries tostructure global LCS
UK
EU
China
AfricaIndia

COP12 side event
Nov 8, 2006@Nairobi

Organized by MOEJ, Defra
Facilitated by NIES,UKERC, Tyndall Centre
1st workshop in Tokyo, June 14-16 2006
2nd workshop in London, June 13-15 2007

DesignJapan
towardJapan LCS

USA

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

LCS policy
packages
based onscientificfindings
for G8 Japan
in 2008

Collaborative
Thai LCS research
land
in Asia andfurther
Oceania

Japan LCS study (FY2004-2008)

Latin
America
AIM Training Workshop since1997
Oct 16-20, 2006@Tsukuba（Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

Global Environment Research Fund by MOEJ
60research experts from NIES, Kyoto Univ.,
TIT, Univ. of Tokyo, and others

Global Launch ofTechnological, and Social
Innovation to develop LCSs

Further Information: http://2050.nies.go.jp

This is business chance!

Why we develop
Japan LCS Scenarios?
1. Why we need LCS?
2. Can Japan achieve LCS toward 2050?
3. How to structure global participation?

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Two stages of making LCS’s scenarios
Stage one: Design of a Low Carbon Society
1)
2)
3)
4)

Creation of narrative storylines of future Low Carbon Societies
Description of sector-wise details of the future LCSs.
Quantification of the Macro economic and social aspects of the LCSs.
Identification of policy measures and packaging the measures

Stage two : Construction of a policy roadmap toward the Low Carbon
Society1) Design of policy roadmaps toward the Low Carbon Society2) Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps considering uncertainties
involved in element policies
3) Analysis of robustness of the roadmap caused by societal, economical
and institutional uncertainties and acceptability
68What do you want to do now
for our future?

Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’s
Piano Class on Dec 23, 2005

Further Information:

Japan 2050 LCS homepage
http://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan Scenarios towards Low-Carbon Society (LCS)-Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction
by 2050 below 1990 level- (2007.2)
http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainability Scenarios, modeling and policy analysis – (2007.3)
http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/publication/I072/I072.pdf

Proceedings of the First Workshop of Japan-UK
Joint Research Project “Developing Visions for a
Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable
Development” (2007.1)
脱温暖化
http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/publication/I071/I071.pdf

2050