The 12th AIM Workshop (NIES)

Local application of the LCS scenario
development method: A case study“Sustainable Shiga 2030”
Shiga SD 2030 Research Team
20 February 2007

Purpose of the Study Propose a method to formulate a futureenvironmental vision Develop a set of tool to estimate aquantitative and consistent socio-economic
future and its consequence Apply the tool to Shiga Prefecture2

Process

3
・Area ・Year ・Environmental goal ・Sector

Framework
Socio-economic scenario

・scenario number ・key words ・ qualitative
narration ・ representative indicators
・database: effect, limit, cost…
・combining method ・measure’s trend

Listing measures
Socio-economic indicators
Setting measures
Emissions・population, household, time, production,
final demand
・sector production ・transport demand, etc

Delineate a future vision
Formulate a set of action list

Estimation
tool

Propose a policy priority
No

GoalYes

Environmental Future
VisionEstimation flow: socio-economicindicators and GHG emissions
Ave. no. offamily

Household

Trip generationunit

Traffic demand

Energy sharePopulation

Service demandunit

4Energyefficiency

Energy demandTime budget
Time allocationconsistent Employees

Waste incineration

Final demand
Converter
IO factor

Labor
productivity

Working hours

Sector production
FactorOffice floor

FactorFreight transport

Waste generation
unit
Recycling rate
Incineration rate

CO2emission factor

CO2 emission
GHG emissions

Socio-economic
Environmental
indicators
Factor

GWP
FactorFarm land area
Livestock number

Emission factor

CH4 emission

Estimating flow: water pollution
Emission factor

Wastewater treatment
rate

5

Removal rate

Population
Water pollutants inflow

Final demand
Emission factor

Removal rate

Sector production
Emission factor

Farm land area
Livestock number
Land areaby purpose

Emission factor

Removal rate

Area and Target year Area：Shiga Prefecture Population：approx. 1.38 million (2006)

1% of Japan
 Area：approx. 4000km2 1% of Japan●Lake Biwa：approx. 670 km2
1/6 of Shiga Target Year：2030
 Target year of next prefectural long-term

plan

6

Location of ShigaPrefecture

7

Shiga Pref.

8

Overview ofShiga Prefecture
Area: 4,017 km2- Lake Biwa: 670 km2 (17%)
Population: 1,387,475(‘06)- Only one pref. where thepopulation would increase
until 2030
Households: 499,716 (‘06)
Share of Secondary Ind.
(GDP): 46.7% (’02)- Largest share in Japan.

Lake Biwa

Environmental Goal9

 GHG(CO2, CH4)：-40% from 1990 level- Considering the necessity of 60～80% reduction from1990 level by 2050 in Japan Water quality in Lake Biwa：Environmental Quality

Standards
 COD：3, TN：0.2, TP:0.01 mg/L
- Targeting allowable water pollutants inflow to Lake Biwa

Scenario Keywords and Quantification
A10

B

Philosophy

Competition, Businessperformance, Economic growth

Spiritual happiness,
Redistribution, International
contribution

Lifestyle

Individualism, Externalization ofhousehold cares,
Hard working

Family and community oriented,
participation insocial activity

Ecoconsciousness

lowhighTech. innovation

fastslow

National GDP
growth/capita

approx. 2%/year

approx. 1%/year

Privateconsumption
expenditure

Primary：0.6%
Secondary：10.4%
Tertiary：89.0%

Primary：3.8%
Secondary：15.2%
Tertiary：81.0%

Countermeasures：GHGs
Residential andService

Energy efficiency improvement
Fuel switch including renewable
Lifestyle change

Industrial

Energy efficiency improvement
Fuel switch
Energy efficiency improvement
Traffic modal shift: public
transport, bicycle
Fuel switch to bio-fuelCompact city, Logistic efficiency
Recycling rate improvement
Forest management

Transport

Other11

12Countermeasures：Water pollutants
Household

Kitchen management
Toilet separating human waste and urine

Municipal
wastewater

Advanced treatment system by O3 andactivated carbon
Soil trench

Non point source

Treatment system of flush-out rain
Permeable pavement

Industrial

Connection to treatment systems

Agriculture andForestry

Livestock waste return to farm land,
Reducing fertilizer, Forest managementRiver

On-site treatment, Restoration of ponds

Others

Air quality improvement, Vegetation

Scenario and Environmental measureATrend

Technology oriented
Social infrastructure
GHGs
Energy efficiency
reduction improvement inmachine & apparatus
Compact city
Nuclear power
Infrastructure: sewage
Waterpollutants plants, on-site plants
reduction Advanced treatment

B
Tech. & behavior
Natural system
Renewable energy
Traffic modal shift
Energy conservation
Forest management
Kitchen management
Forest management
Eco-friendly agriculture

13Result: Socio-economic indicators

14

Real GDP growth A：1.5%/year
B：0.7%/year A: Secondary industry production: 1.5 times than 2000
 B: Primary industry production: 2.9 times than 2000

Population (thousand)Real GDP (billion)
Industrial production (billion)
Primary industry
Secondary industry
Tertiary industry
Office floor area (1000m2)
Passenger transport (millionp・km)
Freight transport (million t・km)

2000年
1342
5884

A
1381
9022

B
A/2000年
1381
1.03
7311
1.53

B/2000年
1.03
1.24

95
7220
4269
20126

94
10510
6883
30681

276
8036
5627
24152

0.99
1.46
1.61
1.52

2.89
1.11
1.32
1.20

10918

15579

16101

1.43

1.47

4072

4921

4220

1.21

1.04

Result: Environmental measures

15GHGsIndustrial energy efficiency
improvement ratio (compared to2000)
Eco-conscious behavior
implementation rate (household)PV generation diffusion rate

A1.35

B
1.26



10%

80%

10%22%

Hybrid vehicle diffusion rate

20%
10%
98%

40%
12%
40%

Sewer diffusion rate
Advanced treatment diffusion rate
Fertilizer reduction diffusion rate
Diffusion of flushout rain treatment

100%
100%
30%
100%

49%
80%
100%
50%

Modal shift in passenger transport(within the area )automobile → rail
automobile → bicycle

Intensivemeasures：GHGs
A：energy
efficiency imp.
 B：behavior
change, modalshift

Water pollutantsWater

A：sewageplants B：eco-friendly
agricultureResult: GHG emissions
3500

3408

3375

more than -40% bymeasures considered

3000

GHG排出量(ktC-eq)

2500-36% -37%

2000

1990
1500

1000

5000(500)

2000

2176

2140

AB

■CH4
■waste incineration■industrial process■industry■transport■freight■service■residential■forestry sink16

Result: Water pollutants inflow
Achieve the goals of TN and TP
 COD: 2% excess in A, 18% excess in B

1460.650.5

流入負荷量(kt/年)

12COD

108TN

414.30
36.08

TP0.4

0.3

0.59

60.22424.71

5.44

4.60

1

2.14

0.36

2.52 2.70
0.1

0.07
000.00.11

■2000
■A■B
■Level to achieveenvironmental quality
standards

17

CO2 reduction by measure
1800

A

Large contribution by efficienttechnology: 50%

138
1600

126

B

382

183

1400

1200

Increased contribution by
structural change: 32%

排出削減量(kt-C)

255
1000

800

492

251

Relatively small contribution by
lifestyle change: 4%

600

280
400

56598

2000351■Transport structural change■Fuel switch■ Other technology■ Industrial technology■Lifestyle change■Electricity mix change

18Conclusion
Developed a tool to estimate socio-economic indicatorsand environmental emissions

Applied it to Shiga prefecture using two scenariosEvaluated the effects of measures based upon futuresocio-economic indicatorsTo be used in the policy discussion among ShigaPrefecture

Future task: cost estimation, back-casting

19