（別記様式4）(Form 4)

学位論文の要旨（論文の内容の要旨）
Summary of the Dissertation (Summary of Dissertation Contents)

氏名NameMUHAMMAD TASHFIQ HUQ

学 位 論 文Dissertation
論 文 題 目Dissertation Title
Structural Change in Asian Economies: Findings from Novel Sectoral Approaches Using Input-OutputTables
Structural Change is an important part of development process in all countries. Change ineconomic structure requires transformation in macroeconomic variables behind it. A well known toolfor capturing the effects of different economic variables behind the structural change is StructuralDecomposition Analysis (SDA). Similar to growth accounting, SDA could disentangle growth atdisaggregated sectoral level and identify key sectors in an economy. Identifying leading industries indeveloping countries in the long run is essential to formulate economic policy. This research presents
a simple way to identify these leading industries which are currently accelerating using a new SDA
technique modifying the traditional decomposition method, which uses the input–output (I-O) tablesof three different time periods of Asian Lower Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) including
Bangladesh. Our modified technique could identify accelerating industries when applied to study
structural change in economy, which was not possible with traditional method. In the first analyticalchapter, we have showed how our modified SDA technique could outperform traditional SDA tocapture prospective growth sectors in the long run. We illustrated this with a numerical example byapplying both traditional and modified SDA in three different time periods I-O tables of Bangladesh.
In third chapter we see how the structural change happened in some fast growing developing Asian
countries over long period and how they resemble the development path of advanced Asian
economies as explained by classical economic theories. Structural change in sectoral composition
could be found in international trade also. Countries having comparative advantages are now
exploiting the advantage of trade liberalization. Composition of intermediate goods used for export
products could be an indication of structural change of a economy connected with global value chain(GVC). Domestic value added in export product-VAX-D ratios are recently used to determine thedependency of a country in international trade for intermediate inputs for its production of final
goods. To capture the dependency of Asian countries in international trade for final production- weused two new indicators which could capture the inter dependency situation for domestic final
demand and intermediate inputs as well. In the last analytical chapter, we analyzed the dependencyof Asian countries in international trade for intermediate goods and how the structure of theirproduction changes over last two decades.
The second chapter aims at disentangling the process of economic growth in Bangladesh toidentify some prospective accelerating sectors which could achieve constant economic growth withproper policy support. With frequent climate change related disaster shocks and a huge burden of
refugees from neighbor country’s conflict, Bangladesh needs to formulate effective strategies tosupport its most prospective sectors for ensuring sustainable development. Using a modification oftraditional SDA, we identify some prospective growth sectors in Bangladesh economy. We havefound some labor intensive manufacturing and high value added service sectors as key sectors for
growth in Bangladesh. Our analysis showed Bangladesh is mainly dependent on Textiles & Food
sectors in manufacturing and Construction, Real Estate & Inland Transport sectors in Service for its
quick growth. Most importantly, we found some new manufacturing sectors like Basic Metal andMachineries, NEC & Recycling sectors are constantly growing over last decade using our technique.

Proper policy support to these high potential emerging sectors could help Bangladesh achieve theSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ensuring economic growth & sustainable development
through promoting industrial diversification.
Third Chapter identifies some common development patterns in 6 South Asian LIDCs from a
sectoral approach. According to the classical theory of economic development, as in Akamatsu’s
flying geese model, many countries should exhibit similar development patterns fromagriculture-based sectors to processed or labor-intensive industries as a long-run trend. We haveused three periods of the input‒output table with a novel decomposition technique derived from a
conventional method to identify key sectors that enable these countries to keep up the constanteconomic growth. Our results show that labor-intensive and light manufacturing sectors, along withsome high-value-added service sectors, are the most promising sectors in these countries. Food, basic
metal and textiles sectors are commonly growing manufacturing sectors in most countries. Service
sectors such as construction, electricity and transport are also steadily surging. Among our targetedSouth Asian countries, only Vietnam has been developing many types of diversified sectors inmanufacturing from traditional labor-intensive sectors to highly technology-oriented sectors. Thismeans that Vietnam might achieve an advanced stage faster than other Asian countries. Most
importantly, We have found some prospective accelerating sectors in these countries with our novel
decomposition technique which could not be found with conventional technique, such as
manufacturing & recycling, basic metal, and rubber. These findings indicate that these countries havestarted to diversify industries from their traditional sectors, which resembles the flying geese model.
International production process has changed much due to rise of global value chain and more
and more Asian countries are taking part in it. To quantify this phenomenon, measurement ofVertical Specialization (VS) trends and how it distributed among countries and sectors is important.
In fourth chapter we aim at analyzing the trends of VS shown by Asian countries over last 20 years, toindicate how their dependence on international trade varies over time. Along with using traditional
indicators like VAX-D ratio to measure the domestic value added in the exported goods, we used two
more new indicators to measure similar ratios for domestic final demand and intermediate imports.
Our results showed that most of the Asian countries have shown downward and almost constanttrends for VAX-D ratios which means they are depending more on imported intermediates over thelast 20 years. Only few countries like- Hong Kong, Taiwan and Malaysia have shown upward trend
in VAX-D ratios indicating their capacity development to grow the intermediate inputs domestically.
Our results also find VAX-D ratio is lower in high skilled labor oriented manufacturing sectors but
higher in low skill labor oriented sectors. Additionally, small island nations showed higher
dependency on international trade compared to larger countries. Our detailed analysis furtherindicated that domestic supply chain tends to produce export products in Pakistan & Lao, domestic
final demand products in China and intermediate products in Bangladesh. On the other hand,
Thailand depends more on imported intermediate goods for its domestic consumption andinvestment products.
The Second Order Differencing or DOD decomposition in our novel decomposition technique isable to capture some features in the growth path of a sector that cannot be considered in traditional
SDA which leads to identify prospective growth sectors. Policy makers in Bangladesh and otherdeveloping countries could provide financial and policy supports to these new promising
accelerating sectors. Our modified SDA is better than conventional one to identify flying geese
development pattern as it show that latecomer Asian developing countries have started to diversify
industries from their traditional sectors resembling the flying geese model. Some common policy
initiatives are attributed behind the early growth of Asian countries during the last half of theprevious century. Developing Asian countries could implement similar policy initiatives to promote
diversified industrialization following advanced Asian countries. To ensure constant economic
growth of the Asian developing countries, participating in international production process isconducive. As empirical researches have showed countries which could export “high-technology”
products could have grown more quickly, developing Asian countries only specialized in traditional
export products should be specialized in exporting “high-technology” products for quick growth.
Policy makers are often perplexed by structural change, as they become confused about which
resources to prioritize to provide incentive. Our findings from novel input-output approaches in thisresearch could be a new way to help formulate policies for addressing the structural change in both
domestic market and international trade in Asian countries.

備考

論文の要旨はＡ４判用紙を使用し，4,000字以内とする。ただし，英文の場合は1,500語以内とする。
Remark: The summary of the dissertation should be written on A4-size pages and should not exceed 4,000
Japanese characters. When written in English, it should not exceed 1,500 words.