The 21st AIM International Workshop

Study on Production-based andConsumption-based CO2 Emissions
Fu Jiafeng
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Qi Meng
Hebei University
13-14 November,2015 NIES,Tsukuba, Japan

Research object• Which sector is the largest CO2 emission sector based on
input perspective, and which sector is the main sector
contributing to it?
• Which sector is the largest CO2 emission sector based on
demand perspective, and which sector is the main sector
contributing to it?

introduction• The widely used methodology for measuring CO2 emissions in the IEA (2007a) andIPCC (2006) is production-based, that is, the CO2 that is emitted within the nation ismeasured.
• The current studies are production-based—in effect domestic production including
exports—and many critiques suggest the use of consumption-based methodology
which subtract exports but include imports.
• The two measurements reflect difference in the principle on emissions
responsibilities: the consumption-based measurement corresponds to the “beneficiarypays principle,” while the measurement of production-based emissions corresponds
to the “polluter pays principle.”• consumption-based measurements offer the advantage of preventing carbon leakage,increasing the options available for mitigation, encouraging environmental
comparative advantage, addressing competitiveness concerns. Moreover, theynaturally encourage technology diffusion. The estimation based on the consumptionbased methodology is important as basic information in terms of the equity.

Methods and data （1）• The calculations are based on environmental input–output analysis(EIOA)• the total output of an economy, x, can be expressed as the sum ofintermediate consumption, Ax, and final consumption, y:• an environmental matrix, F, with f representing the sector-wise total
supply-chain emissions to meet the final demand y.

Methods and data （2）• This is the standard method for environmental IOA. However, thismethod is not sufficient for studies of trade as the direct requirements
matrix A usually does not distinguish between domestically produced
and imported products. Thus, it is common to derive newrequirements matrices and final demand vectors in which only
domestic goods are included, Ad and yd:

Methods and data （3）• We obtained the input–output tables from the Chinese National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for 2002,2007 and 2010 with 42 sectors.
• The CO2 by industry sector for 2002, 2007, and 2010 wereconstructed using official Chinese energy statistics and the IPCC
reference approach (IPCC, 1996).
• The CO2 emissions from the combustion of fuels = CO2 emissions
from total final consumption ( except residential consumption) - CO2emissions from non-energy use + CO2 emissions from thermal power+ CO2 emissions from heating supply.
• The CO2 emissions of 42 sectors = CO2 emission factor * output of42 sectors .

Results-1

The Growth rate of consumption-based
and production-based CO2 emissions
2007
Consumption-based
CO2 emissions
Production-based
CO2 emissions

2010

76.83% 25.80%
99.56% 15.54%

Balance of Emissions
Embodiedin Trade (BEET) could
be a main cause for thedifferences between
consumption-based CO2
emissions andproduction-based CO2emissions.
China is a net exporter.

Results-2

26% of China’s domestic CO2
emissions were in the production ofexports from 2002 to 2010.
It is likely that consumption in thedeveloped world is driving this trend.
Climate policies which would makethe developed world responsible for
China’s export emissions have bothbenefits and costs, and must be
carefully designed to achieve politicalconsensus and equity. Whoever isresponsible for these emissions,
China’s rapidly expanding
infrastructure and inefficient coalpowered electricity system needurgent attention.

Results-3
CO2 emissions (10 thousand ton)

Driving forces of production-based carbon
Exportemissions
80000070000060000025%50000031.1%

4000001.55%

300000200000100000037.7%

2.39%
44.06%

22.35%
1.01%
34.4%
9.69%
23.85%
8.70%

7.64%
17.02%
4.98%

6.34%
17.67%
4.54%

2002

20072010

Changes inInventories
Fixed Capital
Formation
Government
Consumption
Urban Households
Rural Households

2002

2007

2010

Final Consumption expenditure

42.24%

29.65%

28.55%

Capital Investment

35.40%

39.25%

46.45%

Export22.35%

31.10%

25.00%

CO2 emissions aremainly formed in theprocess of fixed capitalformation in the
production-based carbon
emissions .
Although the CO2
emissions of the processof final consumption
increased year by year,
the proportion isdecreased.

Results-4
Input perspective

Sectoral CO2 emission matrix provides a better understandingof the relationship between CO2 emissions from productinput and product demand.

The sector of Production and Supply of Electric Power, Steam and Hot Water is thelargest sector of CO2 emissions on product input perspective, 27.2% of China’s
domestic CO2 emissions during 2002 to 2010, which must be taken urgent policies.

Top sectors of CO2 emissions by input perspective
2002
sectorProduction and Supply ofElectric Power,Steam andHot Water

2007

CO2 emissions(104 ton)

86592.42

Proportion(%)

sector

29.72

Production and Supplyof Electric Power,
Steam and Hot Water

CO2emissions(104 ton)2010
sectorCO2emissions(104 ton)

Proportion(%)

26.76

Production and
Supply of ElectricPower, Steam andHot Water

167947.7

25.00

72730.07

12.51

Smelting andPressing of Metals

83221.16

12.39

Proportion(%)

155558.3

Traffic,transport, storage

28398.05

9.75

Smelting and Pressingof Metals
Smelting

Smelting and Pressing ofMetals

27773.57

9.53

Chemical Industry

62973.99

10.83

Coal Mining andProcessing

81407.01

12.1226575.25

9.12

Processing ofPetroleum,Coking,Processing ofNucleus Fuel60570.7

10.42Nonmetal Mineral
Products

71575.66

10.66

17012.41

5.84

Nonmetal Mineral
Products52983.43

9.11

Chemical Industry

63944.89

9.52

16829.37

5.78

Traffic,transport,
storage

46403.29

7.98

59550.4

8.87

Construction

12318.57

4.23

Coal Mining andProcessing

43416.55

7.4755734.79

8.30

Total

215499.6

73.97

Total

494636.3

85.08

583381.6

86.85

Chemical Industry
Processing of Petroleum,Coking,Processing of
Nucleus FuelNonmetal Mineral
Products

Traffic,transport,
storage
Processing ofPetroleum,Coking,Processingof Nucleus FuelTotal

88.7% of the CO2 emissions are generated for other sectors to supply electricity andheat. Construction sector is the largest sector using electricity and heat, resulting in
22.1% of CO2 emissions in the electric and heat power sector.

First, the power industry to improve power generation efficiency, control power generation
process of CO2 emissions.
Second, other sectors to improve the utilization efficiency of electricity , control electricity
consumption, especially in the construction sector.

Demand-based Perspective

Construction is the largest sector of CO2 emissions on final demand,
27.55% of China’s domestic CO2 emissions during 2002 to 2010,
which must be taken urgent policies.

Top sectors of CO2 emissions by demand-based perspectiv
2002
sector2007
CO2Proporemissions tion
(104 ton)(%)

Construction
74098.63
Manufacture of General and16070.11
Special Purpose Machinery
Production and Supply ofElectric Power, Steam and 14531.98
Hot Water
Farming 、Forestry、Animal Husbandry and14471.2
Fishery

2010
CO2emissions(104 ton)

Proportion(%)

Construction
Manufacture of General and Special
Purpose Machinery

158383.5

27.24

40000.25

6.88

4.99

Chemical Industry

32537.71

4.97

Electric Equipment and Machinery
Manufacturing

25.44
5.52

sectorsectorConstruction
Manufacture of General and Special
Purpose Machinery

PropCO2
ortioemissionsn(104 ton)(%)
201245.1 29.96
51143.94

7.61

5.60

Transport Equipment Manufacturing 41171.15

6.13

26305.28

4.52

Electric Equipment and Machinery
Manufacturing37553.74

5.59

Chemical Industry

33553.14

5.00

30612.28

4.56

24597.11

3.66

21834.25

3.25

Chemical Industry

13228.93

4.54

Manufacture of Communication
Equipment ,25983.58

4.47

Public management andsocial organization

12832.42

4.40

Transport Equipment Manufacturing24938.22

4.29

Traffic,transport, storage

12572.98

4.32

Traffic,transport, storage

23237.64

4.00

Education

11890.08

4.08

Production and Supply of ElectricPower, Steam and Hot Water

21412.36

3.68

11000.8

3.78

Smelting and Pressing of Metals

20463.43

3.52

Production and Supply of ElectricPower, Steam and Hot Water

21060.28

3.14

9693.782

3.33

Sanitation, social security and social
welfare19206.18

3.30

Traffic,transport, storage

19422.72

2.8

190390.9

65.35

Total

392468.2

67.51

Total

Food Production andTobacco Processing
Manufacture ofCommunication Equipment,TotalManufacture of Communication
Equipment ,Food Production and Tobacco
Processing
Sanitation, social security and social
welfare482193.7 71.79

In order to meet final demand of construction sector, CO2 emissions of nonmetal mineralproducts, production and supply of electric Power, Steam and Hot Water, et al., were morehigher than other sectors. 55.82% CO2 emissions of construction sector in top three sectors.
First is to improve the utilization efficiency of raw materials in construction sector andreduce the usage of main raw material. Second is to upgrade the main relative industries andcontrol their CO2 emissions.

By now• We have finished assessment report on country level andprovince level by using the data in 2010,2007,2002.

Next step• Co-control analysis between CO2 and air pollutants• Policy management on Low carbon and environmental
protection• ……

THANK YOU
welcome to CRAES