th28 AIM International Workshop

NET ZERO EMISSIONS 2050
THAILAND
September 13, 2022
Bundit Limmeechokchai

Thammasat UniversityActivities
FY-2021 - 2022
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Submitted toGlobal Environmental Research Vol. 26/2022

Role of Asia towards a Decarbonized World: Road Map of Asian Countries

6Low carbon scenarios to be analyzed byGCAM

Expected outcomes:* Bangkok’s Grid Modernization and Digitalization* Thailand’s Carbon Neutrality 2050
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Results
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Thailand’s mid-century greenhouse gasemission pathways to achieve
the 2 degrees Celsius target

10Energy system transformationfor attainability of net zero
emissions in Thailand

BAU

Agriculture

Commercial

Energy industries

Industry

Residential

Transport

BAU (Emissions)

NZE_GHG (Emissions)

700

Primary Energy Supply (TJ)

Oil
Other renewables
Coal

Solid biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear15129630
2015

2020

2025

500

2035

2040

2045

400

Oil

Solid biomass and waste

Liquid biofuels

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Natural gas

Coal

NuclearElectricity Import

Primary Energy Supply (TJ)

GHG reduction (MtCO2e)

2030

2050

NZE

600

300
20010002020

Liquid biofuels
Natural gas
Elec. Import

2025

2030

2035

2040

20452050

864202020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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ONEPCabinet

National Committee on
Climate Change Policy (NCCC)

UNFCCC

Process of updated
Thailand’s LTS

Subcommittee on Climate Change
Policy & Planning Integration

Relevant Stakeholders:-START
National Working Group on
Integration of GHG Mitigation
Policy & Planning

National Consultation

Government agencies - Private Sector
Civil society- Academia
Experts- Public Sector

Working Group on Thailand’s Long-term
Low GHG Emissions Development Strategy
EnergyTransport

Waste

IPPU

Agriculture

LULUCF

Socioeconomy

12Framework of updated
Thailand’s LTS
Driving factors- Population- GDP- Energy prices- Energy balance- Tech. cost & eff.
- Emission factor- Discount rate
- No. of households- Income- Urbanization rate

Useful energy
model

Mitigation policy andmeasures in the
Energy, IPPU, AFOLU
and Waste sectors

Technologicalmodel(AIM/EndUse)

Energy consumption
Energy mix
Energy system costTechnology mix
Emission pathways
Macro economic impact
GDP loss

Socio-economic model(AIM/CGE)

Welfare loss
HH. & Gov. consumption
Sectoral production
Carbon price13

Updated Thailand’s NDC 2030 using AIM/Enduse
GHG Emissions Level (MtCO2eq)

600

555

170500

MtCO2eq

385

400
300

36830%

222

MtCO2eq

40%

333
BAU_NDC200

Unconditional_30

100

Conditional

02015

2020

2025

2030
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Updated Thailand’s NDC 2030 using AIM/Enduse
600

1.1
555

500

GHG
-40%

MtCO2eq

400
300

341

2.6

163

Unconditional_30

53

Conditional_10

2.6

333
• Solar PV with battery
storage• Wind replacing coal andlignite• Biomass replacing coal
• Electric cars and bikes

200100• High biofuel blends intransport• Shift from coal to NG inindustry• Efficient motors in industry• Electric kiln replacing fossil
fuel kiln in industry

0BAU

2015

UpdatedEnergy

NDC-2022(Uncon_25)

2030

IPPU

Agriculture

Waste

Mitigation in 2030
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Timeline of Thailand’s Net Zero
GHG Emissions 2065

“Green Power Sector”▪
▪
▪

Efficiency improvement inpower plants
Use of renewable energy(biomass, biogas, solar, wind)Phase out of oil power
plants

2025

▪

2030

Solar/wind with battery
storage▪
▪

Phase down of coal power
plants
68% share of RE electricity

2035

2040

▪

Thailand net zero
CO22050

2045

CCS, CCU & BECCS▪
▪
▪
▪
▪

Thailand net zeroGHG

2055

2060

2065

Combined cycle natural gas used best in class
74% share of RE electricity
Phase out coal power plants
Net zero emission electricity
Biomass-based generation fully equipped with CCStechnologies
18Future Workin 2022
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Thailand AIM Brochure

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Draft paper to “Special Feature with
Sustainability Science” by Dec 2022

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THANKYOU
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