Local LCS “TIPS”
from Shiga SD2030 Scenario Study

Kei Gomi, Kyoto University
AIM Training Workshop
Tokyo, Japan Oct. 25 2007

Contents
 Shiga calculation system “Menoco”(ESS) Data collection and compensationFor "usable" Local LCS studies

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Shiga SD 2030
Base year : 2000
Target year : 2030
Env.target : -50% of 1990 CO2 emission(Water quality, Waste disposal)

3Calculation system : Menoco (ESS) Demonstration4

Calculation system : conclusion
 Arrange ESS for your situation-> advantage of EXCEL tool-> add new seat,
 EST is a useful tool for a meeting(rather than calculation result itself)5

Data collection and compensation
 How to collect base year data?

->Usually, energy data in local scale isscarce both in supply and demand.
 We must estimate it from available data.

->Two technique: bottom up & top down
(decomposition)

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Bottom-up approach- When you can know individual volume Found data in ONE UNIT of activity.
(ex. energy purchase in one family)-> in Japan, we can use household expenditure data byprefecture.
(Shiga,too. You can also use national data.)

Multiply the data by the total number of activity unit.
(ex. number of family)

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Example:
Kerosene consumption per family* Number of family in the region= total kerosene consumption in the region8Problem with Bottom-up approach Diversification among the families.

-> Regional difference-> Income class-> Number of occupants
 Tips-> Compensation by CLIMATIC division-> use data by Income class, by Number ofoccupants, etc.
9Top-down approach-When you can know total volume Find larger area data, or national total(ex. Gasoline sells in Kinki region)
 Divede it by the ratio of appropriate Index-> You should select best available Index related.
(ex. number of cars possessed)

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Example:

National Gasoline sells*Vehicle number of the region/ Vehicle number of the country= Gasoline consumption by Vehicles inthe region11Problem with Top-down approachAgain, regional variation.
-> find compensation index



Difference with estimated volume by bottom-up
approach (Shiga’s example)<bottom up approach of Gasoline consumption>
Transport volume of vehicle (Passenger-km)* Average passenger number of one vehicle (P/vehicle)* Fuel efficiency (liter/km/vehicle)= Gasoline consumption> top-down approach Gasoline consumption->We compensated the transportation model by thedifference12+1: Problem of the year of survey
Base year : 2000
Survey year : 1998 & 2003

1998
425

2000
?

2003
5202000

2003-> Linear interpolation(520-425)÷5×2 + 425 = 463
Year of the most importantsurvey should be base yearof LCS scenario.
(ex. National census, IO table)

1998

Assume linear transition

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Data availability problem: conclusion
 Make an effort to estimate indirectly.

(bottom-up, top-down) Write memo about how you estimated it,

asfrequent & as detailed as possible.
(especially, what you implicitly assumed)
 Compensate by other way of estimation, ifnecessary.
 It may be better to conduct own survey for

LCS scenario, if you can. (ex. householdconsumption)

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For a "usable" Local LCS study (1) Co-operation with local officer
 Have frequent meetings
 Make co-operation atmosphere each other Put LCS vision on the agenda of the region-> To make meaningful your research in the realworld.
-> You may be able to be given data, which are
difficult to get usually.

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For a "usable" Local LCS study (2) Role of researchers: Education
General knowledge of climate change problem and its
importance What they can do as local action
 How closely making LCS is related to local policy
-> Conduct a meeting with various VIP of the region todiscuss future LCS vision(local officers, economic leaders, NGO members, etc)-> Again, ESS it useful in the meeting(you can operate ESS in front of them)(make any changes by the request of participants)
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Thank you