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ࠗᅜ㝿ᆅᇦ⤒῭◊✲࠘➨  ྕ0DUVSS
⮬↛⅏ᐖ࡜೺ᗣ᱁ᕪ㸸㸸ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅
⪅ᩘ࡟
࡟ཬࡰࡍ㛗
㛗ᮇⓗᙳ
ᙳ㡪 †

ྡྂᒇᕷ❧኱Ꮫ⤒῭Ꮫ㒊බඹᨻ⟇Ꮫ⛉ ኱➉ⱥோྡྂᒇᕷ❧኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔⤒῭Ꮫ◊✲⛉ ෆ⏣┿㍜せ ᪨⏒኱࡞⅏ᐖ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⿕⅏⪅ࡢᚰ㌟࡟้ࡲࢀࡓ∎⑞ࡣ㸪㛗ᮇ࡟Ώࡗ࡚Ꮡᅾࡋ⥆ࡅࡿࠋᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ⿕⅏⪅ࡢ೺ᗣ≧ែ࡟ཬࡰࡍ୰㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪ࢆᐃ㔞໬ࡍࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㸪2007㹼2017 ᖺᗘ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࡢබⓗ௓ㆤಖ㝤ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᕪศࡢᕪศἲ࡟ࡼࡿᅉᯝ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࠋศᯒࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢேཱྀᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡟ẚ࡭࡚ᖺࠎቑຍࡍࡿഴྥ࡟࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲ
ࡓ㸪㟈⅏ᚋࡍࡄࡣ㍍ᗘ࣭୰ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢࡳࡀୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀ㸪᫬㛫ࡢ⤒㐣࡟క࠸㔜ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ࡶᙳ㡪ࡀ⾲ࢀࡣࡌࡵࡓࠋࡉࡽ࡟㸪⿕⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ࡣ⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࡶ኱ࡁࡃ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ
ศ࠿ࡗࡓࠋ≉࡟㸪ὠἼ⿕ᐖࡢ࠶ࡗࡓ⮬἞యࡸேཱྀつᶍࡢᑠࡉ࡞⿕⅏⮬἞య㸪㟈⅏௨๓ࡼࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅๭ྜࡢ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ⿕⅏⮬἞య࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢࡼࡾ㢧ⴭ࡞ቑຍࡀㄆࡵࡽࢀࡓࠋࡇࢀࡽࡢ⤖ᯝࡣ㸪⿕⅏࡟క࠺೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡀ㸪⿕⅏ᆅෆእࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ⿕⅏ᆅ㛫࡛ࡶᣑ኱ࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㸯㸬ᗎㄽ ᪥ᮏࡢ㧗㱋໬ࡀṆࡲࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ
⥲ົ┬⤫ィᒁࡢ᥎ィ࡛ࡣ㸪
2022ᖺ9᭶᫬Ⅼ࡛ࡢ65ṓ௨ୖ㧗㱋⪅ேཱྀࡣ3627୓ே࡜࡞ࡾ㸪㐣ཤ᭱ከࢆ᭦᪂ࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ୍᪉࡛㸪ྠ᫬Ⅼࡢ⥲ேཱྀࡣᴫ⟬࡛ 1 ൨ 2322 ୓ே࡛࠶ࡾ㸪13ᖺ㐃⥆࡛ῶᑡࡋࡓࠋ⥲ேཱྀࡣ௒ᚋ 50 ᖺ㛫࡛ࡉࡽ࡟ 3 ๭๓ᚋ㸪⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀ࡟⮳ࡗ࡚ࡣ 4 ๭๓ᚋῶᑡࡍࡿ࡜ண ࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾ 1㸪㧗㱋໬࡟క࠺⑌⑓࣭௓ㆤ㈇ᢸࡀ௒ᚋᣑ኱ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡣࡁࢃࡵ࡚㧗࠸ࠋᣢ⥆ⓗ࡞᪥ᮏ⤒῭ࡢᡂ㛗ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ࡣ㸪ࡼࡾ೺ᗣ࡞♫఍ࢆᐇ⌧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ኱ࡁ࡞ㄢ㢟࡜࡞ࡿ 2ࠋ† ᮏ✏ࡣ㸪
኱➉ⱥோࡢ 2020 ᖺᗘᏛኈྕㄳồㄽᩥࢆᨵ⦅ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࠶ࡾ࠺࡭ࡁㄗㅸࡣ඲࡚ෆ⏣࡟ᖐࡍࡿࠋᮏ◊✲ࡣ㸪JSPS⛉◊㈝㸦JP19K01632㸧
㸪㸦⊂㸧⎔ቃ෌⏕ಖ඲ᶵᵓࡢ⎔ቃ◊✲⥲ྜ᥎㐍㈝㸦JPMEERF20S11821㸧࠾ࡼࡧ㸦බ㈈㸧ᕷཎᅜ㝿ዡ
Ꮫ㈈ᅋ࠿ࡽࡢ◊✲ຓᡂ࡟ࡼࡾ୍㒊ᐇ᪋ࡋࡓࠋ
1 ᅜ❧♫఍ಖ㞀࣭ேཱྀၥ㢟◊✲ᡤࠕ᪥ᮏࡢᑗ᮶᥎ィேཱྀ㸦ᖹᡂ 29 ᖺ᥎ィ㸧ࠖࡼࡾࠋ
2 ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ೺ᗣ᪥ᮏ 21㸦⥲ㄽ㸧ࠖ࡟ࡼࡿࠋ೺ᗣ᪥ᮏ 21㸦➨஧ḟ㸧࡛ࡣ㸪┠ᶆࡢ୍ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚೺ᗣᑑ࿨ࡢᘏఙ࡜೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡢ⦰
ᑠࢆᥖࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ

-- 55 --

 ೺ᗣ࡞♫఍ࡢᐇ⌧࡟ྥࡅࡓྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࢆ㐍ࡵࡿ㝿㸪㞀ᐖࡢ୍ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚ᠱᛕࡉࢀࡿࡢࡀ㸪㏆ᖺ㢖Ⓨࡍࡿ኱⅏ᐖࡢᏑᅾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅ᪥ᮏࡣᆅ㟈࡟ࡼࡿ⿕ᐖࡀከ࠸ᅜ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ2011 ᖺ࡟㉳ࡁࡓᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏࡛ࡣ㸪ከࡃࡢ⿕⅏㧗㱋⪅ࡀᢚ࠺ࡘࡸ⏕ά⩦័⑓࡞࡝ࡢၥ㢟ࢆᢪ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡗࡓ࡜࠸ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Ogawa et al.
2012; ᮏ㇂ 2013; Sawa et al. 2013; Tsubokura et al. 2013 ࡞࡝㸧ࠋ㟈⅏ᚋࡢ⿕⅏⮬἞య࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ࡀ▷ᮇⓗ࡟㧗ࡲࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࡶሗ࿌ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦኱⃝ 2015; Morita et al. 2019; Inoue and Jeong 2020;
Kobashi et al. 2021㸧
ࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟㸪㧗㱋໬࡜⅏ᐖ࡟క࠺೺ᗣၥ㢟ࡣ↓㛵ಀ࡛࡞ࡃ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪་⒪㈝ࡸ௓ㆤ㈝⏝࡞࡝ࡀ㛗ᮇⓗ࡟ୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡸᅜࡢ㈈ᨻࢆᑗ᮶ⓗ࡟ᅽ㏕ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ↓ど࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋࡇ
࠺ࡋࡓ≧ἣࡢ୰㸪኱つᶍ࡞⮬↛⅏ᐖࡀ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ೺ᗣ≧ែ࡟ཬࡰࡍ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ᙳ㡪࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪ᐃ㔞ⓗ࡟♧ࡋࡓ▱ぢࡣ࠶ࡲࡾぢᙜࡓࡽ࡞࠸ 3ࠋ⅏ᐖ᚟⯆࡟ࡣண᝿௨ୖ࡟᫬㛫ࡀ࠿࠿ࡾ㸪⿕⅏ୡᖏࡀཷࡅࡿᚰ㌟ࡢࢫࢺࣞࢫ
ࡣ࡞࠿࡞࠿ゎᾘࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࠋ஦ᐇ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏࠿ࡽ 10 ᖺ௨ୖࢆ⤒㐣ࡋࡓ⌧ᅾࡶ㸪㑊㞴⏕άࢆవ൤࡞ࡃࡉ
ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿேࡣᩘ୓ே࡟ࡢࡰࡾ㸪᚟⯆ࡀᛮࡗࡓ࡯࡝㐍ࢇ࡛࠸࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺ኌࡶᑠࡉࡃ࡞࠸㸦NHK2020㸧ࠋ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࢆࢣ࣮ࢫࢫࢱࢹ࢕࡜ࡋ㸪㟈⅏࡟క࠺㧗㱋⪅ࡢ೺ᗣᙳ㡪࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪㛗ᮇⓗ࡞どⅬ࠿ࡽศᯒࢆ⾜࠺ࠋ೺ᗣᙳ㡪ࡢᣦᶆ࡟ࡣ㸪኱⃝㸦2015㸧࡞࡝ࢆཧ⪃࡟㸪බⓗ࡞௓ㆤಖ㝤ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࠋศᯒ࡟ࡣ᪥ᮏ඲ᅜࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧࢹ࣮ࢱ 11 ᖺศ㸦2007㹼2017 ᖺᗘ㸧ࢆ⏝࠸㸪㟈⅏┤ᚋࡢ▷ᮇᙳ㡪࡜ࡑࢀ௨㝆ࡢ୰㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆᐃ㔞໬ࡍࡿࠋ㆑ูᡓ␎࡜ࡋ࡚㸪㟈⅏࡟ࡼࡿእ⏕ⓗࢩࣙࢵࢡࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᕪศࡢᕪศ㸦Difference-in-differences㸧ἲࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⿕⅏ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡓᅉᯝຠᯝࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿࠋ᥎ᐃࡢ㝿࡟ࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ་⒪᱁ᕪࡸ⮬἞యࡢ㈈ᨻ≧ἣ࡜࠸ࡗࡓ஺⤡せᅉ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶ⪃៖ࡍࡿ 4ࠋࡲࡓ㸪ᖺ㱋ู࣭೺ᗣ≧ែูࡢ⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࡸ⿕⅏⮬἞య㛫ࡢᙳ㡪᱁ᕪࢆ᥈ࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆᖺ㱋༊ศู㸪௓ㆤᗘู㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩู࡟ࡑࢀࡒࢀศ㢮ࡋࡓศᯒࡶ࠶ࢃࡏ࡚ヨࡳࡿࠋ ศᯒ⤖ᯝࡼࡾ㸪⿕⅏ᆅᇦࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡜ẚ࡭࡚㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ቑຍഴྥ࡟࠶ࡿࡇ࡜
ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪ࡑࡢᙳ㡪ࡣ⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚኱ࡁࡃ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡶ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋ᪥ᮏ࡛ࡣ
௒ᚋ30ᖺ௨ෆ࡟㸪༡ᾏࢺࣛࣇᆅ㟈ࡸ㤳㒔┤ୗᆅ㟈࡜࠸ࡗࡓᕧ኱ᆅ㟈ࡀ70%ࡢ☜⋡࡛㉳ࡇࡿ࡜ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ 5ࠋᮏ◊✲ࡣ㸪㧗㱋⪅ࢆ୺࡜ࡋࡓ⅏ᐖᙅ⪅ᨭ᥼࡟㈨ࡍࡿ᪂ࡓ࡞▱ぢࢆᥦ౪ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⅏ᐖ࡟క࠺೺ᗣ࡬ࡢ࣐
࢖ࢼࢫᙳ㡪ࡢపῶࡸ೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡢᣑ኱ᢚไ࡟ᐤ୚ࡍࡿࠋ
㸰㸬᪥ᮏࡢ㧗㱋⪅ྥࡅබⓗ௓ㆤಖ㝤ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ ᪥ᮏࡢ㧗㱋⪅ྥࡅ௓ㆤಖ㝤ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࡣ㸪බⓗಖ೺࡜ࡋ࡚ 2000 ᖺ 4 ᭶࡟ࢫࢱ࣮ࢺࡋࡓࠋᑐ㇟࡜࡞ࡿ➨3 ᾏእࡢ஦౛◊✲ࢆྵࡵ࡚ࡶ㸪⮬↛⅏ᐖ⿕⅏⪅ࡢ೺ᗣ≧ἣ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ 4 ᖺ௨ୖࡢ⤒㐣ほᐹࢆ⥅⥆ⓗ࡟⾜ࡗࡓ◊✲ࡣ㸪࢔࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ

୍㒊஦౛ࢆ㝖࠸࡚Ꮡᅾࡋ࡞࠸㸦Nomura et al. 2016; Deryugina and Molitor 2021㸧ࠋ௚᪉㸪೺ᗣ≧ἣࢆᝏ໬ࡉࡏࡿせᅉࡢࡦ࡜ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪⮬↛⅏ᐖࡀ㣧㓇⾜ືࢆ㛗ᮇⓗ࡟ຓ㛗ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏௨㝆 8 ᖺ㛫ࡢᐙィᾘ㈝ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㒔ᕷࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ
ศᯒࡼࡾ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Kakimoto and Uchida 2021㸧ࠋ
4 ᆅᇦⓗ≉ᚩ࡜せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ࡢ㛵ಀࢆ♧ࡋࡓㅖ◊✲ࡼࡾ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ࡣձᆅᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ౪⤥≧ἣ㸪ղ⑓㝔࡜デ⒪ᡤࡢ⑓ᗋᩘࡸ⑓ᗋ฼⏝๭ྜ㸪ճ௓ㆤಖ㝤ࡢ⌧≧㸦⏦ㄳ⋡ࡸཷ⒪⋡㸧㸪մ⮬἞యࡢ㈈ᨻ≧ἣ࡜࠸ࡗࡓᆅᇦࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ㐪࠸ࡸ㸪յ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ࡢᡤᚓࡸᩍ⫱ᖺᩘ㸪ᛶู㸪㧗㱋ᮇ௨๓ࡢ⏕ά⩦័⑓ࡢ᭷↓࡜┦㛵ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦୰ᮧ
2006; ΎỈ㇂࣭✄಴ 2006; ᰩ┒ࡽ 2009; ㏆⸨ࡽ 2012; ෆ㛶ᗓᨻ⟇⤫ᣓᐁ 2018㸧ࠋ
5 ෆ㛶ᗓࠕᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ㸸㜵⅏᝟ሗࡢ࣮࣌ࢪ㸦https://www.bousai.go.jp/kyoiku/hokenkyousai/jishin.htmlࠖ
ࠖࡼࡾࠋ
-6-

1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ࡀಖ㝤ࡢ㐺⏝ࢆཷࡅࡿ࡟ࡣ㸪⏦ㄳࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚ㄆᐃࡉࢀࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ65 ṓ࡟࡞ࡿ࡜➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢ㈨᱁ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ㸪ᒃఫࡍࡿ⮬἞య࡬ㄆᐃ⏦ㄳࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡟࡞ࡿࠋ⮬἞యࡣ඲ 74㡯┠ࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃㄪᰝ㡯┠࡟ᇶ࡙࠸࡚⏦ㄳ᭩ࢆ⊂⮬࡟ᑂᰝࡋ㸪ㄆᐃࡢྍྰ࠾ࡼࡧ௓ㆤᗘࢆỴᐃࡍࡿࠋ௓ㆤ
ᗘࡣ㸪㍍࠸᪉࠿ࡽ㸪せᨭ᥼ 1㸪2㸪せ௓ㆤ 1㸪2㸪3㸪4㸪5 ࡢ 7 ศ㢮࡜࡞ࡿࠋせ௓ㆤㄆᐃࡉࢀࡓ⪅ࡣ㸪௓ㆤᗘ࡟ᛂࡌࡓᨭ⤥㝈ᗘᇶ‽㢠ࡢ⠊ᅖෆ࡛㸪௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢᥦ౪࡜ᡤᚓ࡟ᛂࡌࡓ㈇ᢸᩱࡢῶච㸦7~9 ๭㸧ࢆཷࡅࡽࢀࡿ 6ࠋῶචศࡣಖ㝤⪅࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿ➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅࡜➨ 2 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅㸦40~64 ṓࡲ࡛ࡢ་⒪ಖ㝤ຍධ⪅㸧
ࡀ 5 ๭ࢆ㈇ᢸࡋ㸪ṧࡾࡢ 5 ๭ࢆᅜ㸦25%㸧࡜ᆅ᪉⮬἞య㸦㒔㐨ᗓ┴ 12.5%㸪ᕷ⏫ᮧ 12.5%㸧ࡀබ㈝㈇ᢸࡍ
ࡿ 7ࠋ 㧗㱋໬࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪௓ㆤಖ㝤ࡢㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡶᖺࠎቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋཌ⏕ປാ┬ࡢ௓ㆤಖ㝤஦ᴗ≧ἣሗ࿌࡟ࡼࡿ
࡜㸪㛤ጞᙜึࡣ➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ᩘ 2165 ୓ேࡢ࠾ࡼࡑ 10%㸦218 ୓ே㸧ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸ࡓࡀ㸪2018ᖺ 4 ᭶࡟ࡣ 3492 ୓ே୰ 18%ᙉ㸦644 ୓ே㸧࡟ࡲ࡛ቑຍࡋࡓࠋቑຍ࣮࣌ࢫࡣᖺࠎᣑ኱ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟క
࠺㈈ᨻ㈇ᢸࡶቑ࠼⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪㔜ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ࡢ኱༙ࡣᐙ᪘࡜ྠᒃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ௓ㆤ஦ᴗࡀᡂ㛗ࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼㸪୺࡞௓ㆤ㈇ᢸࡣ࠸ࡲࡔ࡟㓄അ⪅ࡸᏊ࡝ࡶࡀᢸࡗ࡚࠾ࡾ㸦ཌ⏕ປാ┬ 2019㸧ࠊ᫬㛫ⓗࢥࢫࢺࡸ௓ㆤ⑂ࢀ࡞࡝࡟ࡼࡿேⓗ࡞ᶵ఍㈝⏝ࡶᑠࡉࡃ࡞࠸ࠋࡇࢀࡽㅖㄢ㢟࡟ᑐࡍࡿไᗘᨵ㠉࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᅾ
Ꮿ་⒪࡜ࡢ㐃ᦠᙉ໬ࡸ⮬❧ᨭ᥼௓ㆤࡢ඘ᐇ㸪೺ᗣቑ㐍ィ⏬ࡢ⟇ᐃࡸ೺デ࣭ಖ೺ᣦᑟࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࡢᨵゞ࡞࡝೺ᗣ࡙ࡃࡾࡢ᥎㐍࡜࠸ࡗࡓ௓ㆤண㜵࡟ຊⅬࢆ⨨࠸ࡓྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࡀ㸪㏆ᖺ㐍ࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
௓ㆤண㜵ࢆ㐍ࡵࡿ㝿㸪㛗ᮇⓗ࡞೺ᗣ≧ែ࡟ᝏᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࠺ࡿᚰ㌟ࡢࢫࢺࣞࢫࢆ࠸࠿࡟㍍ῶ࡛ࡁࡿ࠿ࡀ
↔Ⅼ࡜࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୰࡛㸪⮬↛⅏ᐖ࡞࡝ࡢእⓗࢩࣙࢵࢡࡶᚰ㌟ࢫࢺࣞࢫࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍ኱ࡁ࡞せᅉࡢࡦ࡜ࡘ࡜ࡉ
ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ≉࡟㸪ᩘ୓ேつᶍࡢṚ⪅࣭⾜᪉୙᫂⪅ࡀฟࡓᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡢࡼ࠺࡞኱⅏ᐖࡢ೺ᗣᙳ㡪ࡣ៏ᛶⓗ࡟㛗ᘬࡃ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪ࡑࢀࡀ࡝ࡢ⛬ᗘࡢࡶࡢ࠿࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᐃ㔞ⓗ࡞ᅉᯝศᯒࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ◊✲ࡣ࡯ࡰ࡞࠸㸦Deryugina and Molitor 2021㸧ࠋᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪㛗ᮇⓗ࡞೺ᗣᙳ㡪ࢆ♧ࡍᣦᶆࡢࡦ࡜ࡘ࡜ࡋ࡚せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟╔┠ࡋ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏๓ᚋࡢ᥎⛣ࢆ⿕⅏ᆅᇦ࡜ࡑࢀ௨እࡢᆅᇦ࡟ศࡅ࡚ศᯒࡍࡿᅉᯝ᥎ᐃ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪⅏ᐖࡢ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞೺ᗣᙳ㡪ࢆㄞࡳゎࡃࠋ㸱㸬㆑ูᡓ␎࡜᥎ᐃࣔࢹࣝ ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ཬࡰࡍ㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪ࢆศᯒࡍࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㟈⅏ࢆእ⏕ࢩࣙࢵࢡ࡜ࡳ࡞ࡋ㸪⏒኱࡞⿕ᐖࢆཷࡅࡓ⮬἞య࡟࠾ࡅࡿせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢኚ໬ࢆࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞యࡢࡑࢀ࡜ẚ㍑
ࡍࡿࠋᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡣ㸪ᆅ㟈㸪ὠἼ㸪ཎⓎ஦ᨾ࡜࠸࠺」ᩘࡢせᅉ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⿕ᐖࡀ⏒኱໬ࡋࡓ⛥࡞ࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛
࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡽࡢᙳ㡪ࢆໟᣓⓗ࡟ᤊ࠼ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ኱⃝㸦2015㸧࡜ྠᵝ࡟㸪≉ᐃ⿕⅏༊ᇦ࡜ࡋ࡚⅏ᐖᩆຓἲࡢ㐺⏝ࢆཷࡅࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡗࡓ 180 ⮬἞యࢆࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺ࣭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ࡜ࡍࡿ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ㸦⿕㸪2 ࡟ࡣ㸪⮬❧ࡋࡓ⏕άࡣ㏦ࢀࡿࡶࡢࡢ㸪╔᭰࠼ࡸᤲ㝖㸪⛣ື࡞࡝࡟୍㒊௓ຓ㸦ぢᏲࡾࡸᡭຓࡅ㸧ࡀᚲせ࡞⪅ࡀヱᙜࡍࡿࠋせ௓ㆤ 1~5 ࡣ㸪᪥ᖖⓗ࡞⾜Ⅽ࠾ࡼࡧ᤼ࡏࡘ⾜Ⅽࡸ㣗஦࡟㛵ࡍࡿ௓ຓᗘྜ࠸ࡸㄆ▱ࣞ࣋ࣝ࡟ᛂࡌ࡚ㄆᐃࡉࢀࡿࠋಖ㝤ࡀ౑࠼ࡿᨭ⤥㝈ᗘ㢠ࢆ㉸࠼࡚௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࢆ฼⏝ࡍࡿሙྜࡣ㸪㉸㐣ศࡀ඲㢠⮬ᕫ㈇ᢸ࡜࡞ࡿࠋ
7 ➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ࡢಖ㝤ᩱ㸦22%㸧ࡣཎ๎ᖺ㔠࠿ࡽᚩ཰㸪➨ 2 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅㸦40~64 ṓࡲ࡛ࡢ་⒪ಖ㝤ຍධ⪅㸧ࡢಖ㝤ᩱ㸦28%㸧
ࡣ 40 ṓ࡟࡞ࡗࡓ᭶࠿ࡽ་⒪ಖ㝤ᩱ࡜୍యⓗ࡟ᚩ཰ࡉࢀࡿࠋ➨ 2 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ࡶ㸪ຍ㱋࡟క࠺≉ᐃ⑌⑓㸦ᮎᮇࡀࢇࡸ㛵⠇࣐ࣜ࢘ࢳ㸪ึ⪁ᮇㄆ▱⑕࡞࡝㸧ࡀཎᅉࡢሙྜ࡟㝈ࡾ㸪せ௓ㆤ㸦せᨭ᥼㸧ㄆᐃࢆཷࡅࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋไᗘࡢヲ⣽㸦௧࿴ 2 ᖺ 11 ᭶∧㸧ࡣཌ⏕ປാ┬ࡢ HP㸦https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10548.html㸧࡟࡚☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ
6 せᨭ᥼ 1
-7-ࠕከᩘࡢ⪅ࡀ⏕࿨ཪࡣ㌟య࡟༴ᐖࢆཷࡅ㸪⅏⮬἞య㸻1㸧ࢆసᡂࡋࡓ 8ࠋ⅏ᐖᩆຓἲ࡟ࡼࡿ⿕⅏ᆅㄆᐃࡣ㸪ཪࡣཷࡅࡿ࠾ࡑࢀࡀ⏕ࡌ㸪㑊㞴ࡋ࡚⥅⥆ⓗ࡟ᩆຓࢆᚲせ࡜ࡍࡿࠖᕷ⏫ᮧ࡟㐺⏝ࡉࢀࡓࠋ⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢෆヂࡣ㸪3 ┴㸦ᒾᡭ┴㸪ᐑᇛ┴㸪⚟ᓥ┴㸧ࡢ඲ᇦ㸪㟷᳃┴ 1 ᕷ 1 ⏫㸪Ⲉᇛ┴ 28 ᕷ 7 ⏫ 2 ᮧ㸪ᰣᮌ┴ 8 ᕷ 7 ⏫㸪༓ⴥ┴ 7 ᕷ 1 ⏫㸪᪂₲┴ 2 ᕷ 1 ⏫㸪㛗㔝┴ 1 ᮧ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅ඲ᇦᣦᐃࡢᒾᡭ┴㸪ᐑᇛ┴㸪⚟ᓥ┴ࡣ㸪ᆅ㟈㸪ὠἼ㸪ཎⓎ஦ᨾ࡟ࡼࡿ」ྜⓗ࡞࣐࢖ࢼࢫᙳ㡪ࡀࡁࢃࡵ࡚Ⰽ⃰࠸ᆅᇦ࡜㔜࡞ࡿ㸦ᅗ 1-1 ࡜ᅗ 1-2㸧ࠋࡇࡢ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ࡟㸪㟈⅏௨㝆ࡢᖺᗘࢆ 1㸪㟈⅏௨๓ࢆ 0 ࡜ࡍࡿ⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘࢆ᥃ࡅྜࢃࡏࡿࡇ
࡜࡛㸪ᕪศࡢᕪศἲࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࢆ᥎ᐃ࡛ࡁࡿࠋࡇࢀ࡟ຍ࠼࡚㸪ศᯒ࡛ࡣ⿕⅏ᗘྜ࠸࡟ࡼࡿࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ
࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡢ㐪࠸ࡸ㸪㡹೺ᛶࢳ࢙ࢵࢡࡢࡓࡵ࡟⿕⅏ᆅᇦࡢ࿘㎶⮬἞య 9ࢆຍ࠼ࡓሙྜࡢ㟈⅏ᙳ㡪ࡶ᥎ᐃࡍࡿࠋ ᅗ 2 ࡣ㸪⿕⅏⮬἞య࡜ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡟ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉศࡅࡋ㸪ྛࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ 2007 ᖺᗘᮎ㸦2008 ᖺ 3 ᭶㸧ࡢ
1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆᇶ‽࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢቑῶࢆ
ࣀࣥࣃ࣓ࣛࢺࣜࢵࢡ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࣉࣟࢵࢺࡣ᥎ᐃ್㸪ࡑࡢୖୗ࡟ఙࡧࡓ┤⥺ࡣ 95%ಙ㢗༊㛫ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋࡲࡎ㸪⿕⅏๓ࡢ᥎ᐃ್ࢆࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ㛫࡛ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪ᕪศࡢᕪศἲࡢ๓ᥦ᮲௳࡛࠶ࡿᖹ⾜ࢺࣞࣥࢻࡀほᐹ࡛ࡁࡿࠋḟ࡟㸪㟈⅏ࡀ㉳ࡁ࡚㛫ࡶ࡞࠸ 2011 ᖺ 3 ᭶ᮎ㸦2010 ᖺᗘᮎ㸧࡟ࡣ㸪ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ㛫࡟㢧ⴭ࡞㐪࠸ࡣ⾲ࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡀ㸪ࡑࢀ௨㝆㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ᥎ᐃ್ࡣ⿕⅏ࡢ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ⮬἞యࡢࡑࢀࡼࡾࡶ᭷ព࡟ቑ࠼㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ࡑࡢ஋㞳ࡣ᫬㛫ࡢ⤒㐣࡜࡜ࡶ࡟኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋྠᵝࡢ᥎ᐃࢆᖺ㱋༊ศู㸦ᅗ 3㸧࡜௓ㆤᗘู㸦ᅗ 4㸧࡟⾜࠺࡜㸪ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓഴྥࡣ 75 ṓ௨ୖࡸ୰ᗘ࣭㔜ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅࡛㢧ⴭ࡟ぢࡽࢀࡓࠋ ᕪศࡢᕪศἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡍࡿ㝿࡟㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ⿕⅏ࢫࢸ࣮ࢱࢫ࡜せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢ࡝ࡕࡽ࡟ࡶᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࠺ࡿ஺⤡ᅉᏊࢆ࡛ࡁࡿ㝈ࡾࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝࡍࡿࠋᆅ㟈ࡸὠἼ㸪ཎⓎ஦ᨾࡑࡢࡶࡢࡣእ⏕ⓗࢩࣙࢵࢡ࡜
࠸࠼ࡿࡀ㸪⿕⅏ࡢ᭷↓ࡸ⿕⅏つᶍࡣ㸪⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᕥྑࡉࢀࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪ࡑ࠺ࡋࡓ⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢỴᐃせᅉ࡜ࡶ࡞ࡾ࠺ࡿࠋᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ౪⤥ഃせᅉ㸦௓ㆤ⪁ே⚟♴᪋タᐃဨᩘ㸪௓ㆤ⪁ே೺ᗣ᪋タᐃဨᩘ㸪୍⯡デ⒪ᡤ⑓ᗋᩘ㸪⑓㝔⑓ᗋᩘ㸧࡜㟂せഃせᅉ㸦ேཱྀᐦᗘ㸪ዪᛶேཱྀ๭ྜ㸪㧗㱋໬⋡㸪୍ேᙜࡓࡾㄢ⛯ᡤᚓ㸧࡟ຍ࠼㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧࡢ㈈ᨻຊ㸦㈈ᨻຊᣦᩘ㸧ࡸᆅᇦࡢ⤒῭つᶍ㸦┴ෆ⥲⏕⏘㸧㸪Ẽ㇟せᅉ㸦Ẽ 㸪㝆Ỉ㔞㸧ࢆࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝࡋࡓࠋ ࡇࢀࡽࡢほᐹྍ⬟࡞せᅉ௨እ࡟ࡶ㸪ほᐹ୙ྍ⬟࡞஺⤡せᅉࡀᏑᅾࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࡀࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡢ᥎ᐃ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆྲྀࡾ㝖ࡃᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡎ㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧ≉᭷ࡢせᅉ㸦ࡓ࡜࠼ࡤᾏ
ᓊࡸཎⓎ࠿ࡽࡢ㊥㞳㸪ᾏᢤ࡞࡝ࡢᆅ⌮ⓗせᅉࡸ㸪័⩦ࡸ㣗⏕ά࡞࡝ࡢᆅᇦ㢼ᅵ㸧ࡣせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪㟈⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ᗘྜ࠸࡜ࡶ㛵ಀࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓ㸪ᬒẼࡸ࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ᨻ⟇㸪඲⯡ⓗ࡞㧗㱋໬ࡢᙳ㡪࡞࡝᫬㛫ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚᥎ᐃ್࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࠺ࡿせᅉࡶ⪃៖ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵ㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧᅛ᭷ࡢຠᯝ࡜᫬⣔ิࡢᙳ㡪ࡑࢀࡒࢀ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧ i ࡢᅛᐃຠᯝ ci ࡜ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝ yt ࢆ௨ୗ࡛ㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ᥎
ᐃࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡑࢀࡒࢀຍ࠼ࡓࠋ
8 2011 ᖺ࡟ෆ㛶ࡀไᐃࡋࡓࠕᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏࡟ᑐฎࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢ≉ูࡢ㈈ᨻ᥼ຓཬࡧຓᡂ࡟㛵ࡍࡿἲᚊ➨஧᮲➨஧㡯ཬࡧ➨୕㡯ࡢᕷ⏫ᮧࢆᐃࡵࡿᨻ௧ࠖ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪193 ࡢᕷ⏫ᮧ࡟⅏ᐖᩆຓἲࡀ㐺⏝ࡉࢀࡓࠋࡇࡢ࠺ࡕ㸪ᗈᇦ㐃ྜ໬ࡋࡓࡇ࡜࡛⥅⥆ࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ ࡢ ࡞ ࠸ ᒾ ᡭ ┴ ࡢ 13 ᕷ ⏫ ᮧ ࢆ 㝖 ࠸ ࡓ 180 ᕷ ⏫ ᮧ ࢆ ࢺ ࣜ ࣮ ࢺ ࣓ ࣥ ࢺ ࣭ ࢢ ࣝ ࣮ ࣉ ࡜ ࡋ ࡚ ⏝ ࠸ ࡿ ࠋ
https://elaws.e-gov.go.jp/document?law_unique_id=423CO0000000127_20150801_000000000000000
9 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏࡟ᑐฎࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢ≉ู࡞㈈ᨻ᥼ຓཬࡧຓᡂ࡟㛵ࡍࡿἲᚊ➨஧᮲➨஧㡯ࡢᨻ௧࡛ᐃࡵࡽࢀࡓ 34 ᕷ⏫ᮧࡸ㸪㟈⅏ᙜ᫬࡟኱㔞ࡢᖐᏯᅔ㞴⪅ࢆฟࡋࡓᮾி㒔ෆࡢ 47 ᕷ༊⏫ᮧࢆᣦࡍࠋ

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-8-

ᅗ 1-1 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡢᙳ㡪࡛≉ᐃ⿕⅏༊ᇦ࡟ᐃࡵࡽࢀࡓᕷ༊⏫ᮧ㸦ὀ㸧⿕⅏ᆅㄆᐃࡉࢀࡓ⮬἞యࢆ⿕⅏༊ศࡈ࡜࡟ᅗ♧ࡋࡓࠋ

ᅗ 1-2 㟈ᗘูศᕸ㸦ᕥᅗ㸧࡜ὠἼ⿕ᐖᆅᇦ㸦ྑᅗ㸧ฟ඾: Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, ෆ㛶ᗓ୰ኸ㜵⅏఍㆟
-9-

ᅗ 2 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡢ⿕⅏᭷↓ู࡟ࡳࡓ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦65 ṓ௨ୖ㸧ࡢ᥎⛣㸦ὀ㸧⅏ᐖᩆຓἲࡢ㐺⏝ࢆཷࡅࡓ⿕⅏⮬἞య㸦180 ᕷ⏫ᮧ㸧࡜ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡟ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉศࡅࡋ㸪ྛࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ
2007 ᖺᗘᮎ㸦2008 ᖺ 3 ᭶㸧ࡢ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆᇶ‽࡜ࡋ࡚㸪௨㝆ࡢቑῶࢆࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡈ࡜࡟᥎ᐃ
ࡋࡓࠋࣉࣟࢵࢺ࡜ࡑࡢୖୗ࡟ఙࡧࡓ┤⥺ࡣ㸪᥎ᐃ್࡜ 95%ಙ㢗༊㛫ࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀ♧ࡍࠋࢺ࣮ࢱࣝࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧᩘࡣ㸪ᗈᇦ㐃ྜࡢചୗ࡟࠶ࡿᕷ⏫ᮧࢆ㝖࠸ࡓ 1530ࠋ

ᅗ 3 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡢ⿕⅏᭷↓ู࡟ࡳࡓ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢ᥎⛣㸸ᖺ㱋༊ศู
㸺65㹼74 ṓ㸼   㸺75 ṓ௨ୖ㸼㸦ὀ㸧ᅗ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ
- 10 -

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ᅗ 4 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡢ⿕⅏᭷↓ู࡟ࡳࡓ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢ᥎⛣㸸௓ㆤᗘู
㸺㍍ᗘ㸼

㸺୰ᗘ㸼

㸺㔜ᗘ㸼

㸦ὀ㸧ᅗ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ ࡇࢀࡽࡢ㆑ูᡓ␎ࢆ཯ᫎࡋࡓḟࡢ᥎ᐃᘧ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪⿕⅏ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆᅉᯝ᥎ᐃࡍࡿࠋ

(1) 㸯୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ௜௧ = ߙ଴ + ߙଵ ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮௜ + ߙଶ ⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮௧ +  +ߙଷ ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮௜ × ⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮௧ + ‫܆‬௜௧ ઺ + ܿ௜ + ‫ݕ‬௧ + ߝ௜௧ .

せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ࡣ㸪඲య㸦65 ṓ௨ୖ㸧ࡢ࡯࠿㸪65㹼74 ṓ࡜ 75 ṓ௨ୖࡢᖺ㱋༊ศู࡟ศࡅࡓࡶࡢ࡜㸪㍍ᗘ㸪୰ᗘ㸪㔜ᗘࡢ௓ㆤᗘู࡟༊ศࡋࡓࡶࡢࢆ࠶ࢃࡏ࡚⏝࠸ࡿࠋX
X ࡣࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ࣋ࢡࢺࣝ㸪ߝ௜௧ ࡣㄗᕪ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋᕷ༊⏫ᮧࡈ࡜࡟⿕⅏つᶍࡸ㟈⅏௨㝆ࡢ⤒῭άື࡬ࡢᙳ㡪ࡀ᫬㛫ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚␗࡞ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࡢࢡࣛࢫࢱ࣮ࣟࣂࢫࢺᶆ‽ㄗᕪࢆ฼⏝ࡋࡓࠋ᥎ᐃᘧ(1)ࡼࡾ᥎ᐃࡉࢀࡿࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ ߙଷ ࡀࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࢆ⾲ࡋ㸪⿕⅏࡟ࡼࡿ೺ᗣ࡬ࡢ࣐࢖ࢼࢫᙳ㡪ࡀ⿕⅏ࡋ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ⮬἞య࡟ẚ࡭࡚኱ࡁࡃ࡞
ࡿ࡞ࡽࡤ㸪ߙଷ > 0 ࡜࡞ࡿࠋ ᥎ᐃᘧ(1)࡟ຍ࠼࡚㸪ᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㟈⅏ࡢ▷ᮇⓗᙳ㡪࡜㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪ࢆ༊ูࡋ࡚᥎ᐃࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘࡢ௦ࢃࡾ࡟⿕⅏௨㝆ࡢྛᖺᗘࢆࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡓ௨ୗࡢ᥎ᐃࡶ࠶ࢃࡏ࡚⾜࠺ 10ࠋ

(2) 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ௜௧ = ߙ଴ + ߙଵ ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮௜ + σଶ଴ଵ଻௦ୀଶ଴ଵ଴ ߙଶୱ ⿕⅏௨㝆ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮௦ ++ σଶ଴ଵ଻
௦ୀଶ଴ଵ଴ ߙଷୱ ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮௜ × ⿕⅏௨㝆ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮௦ + ‫ ܆‬௜௧ ઺ + ܿ௜ + ‫ݕ‬௧ + ߝ௜௧ .

10 せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ྛᖺᗘᮎ㸦3 ᭶ 31 ᪥᫬Ⅼ㸧ࡢேᩘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡘࡲࡾ㸪2010 ᖺᗘࡶ㟈⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡓᖺᗘ࡜ࡋ࡚࢝࢘ࣥ

ࢺࡍࡿࠋ
- 11 -㸲㸬ࢹ࣮ࢱ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪๓⠇࡛ㄝ᫂ࡋࡓᕪศࡢᕪศἲࢆ⏝࠸㸪ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ࡜ᅛᐃຠᯝࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓィ㔞ศᯒ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ⿕⅏ఫẸࡢ೺ᗣ≧ែ࡟ཬࡰࡍ୰㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆᅉᯝ᥎ᐃࡍࡿࠋศᯒ࡟ࡣ 2007~2017ᖺᗘࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࠋࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᇶᮏ⤫ィ㔞ࡣ⾲ 1 ࡟♧ࡍ 11ࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡟ࡣ㸪ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࡢࠕ௓ㆤಖ೺஦ᴗሗ࿌ࠖ࠿ࡽධᡭࡋࡓ㸦A㸧ᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ
࡜ (B) ➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅ᩘ㸦65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀ㸧ࢆ౑⏝ࡋ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡㸦1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸧ࢆࠕせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ =㸦A㸧÷㸦B㸧× 10000ࠖ࡜ࡋ࡚ồࡵࡓࠋࡇࢀ࡟ຍ࠼㸪ᖺ㱋༊ศู࠾ࡼࡧ௓ㆤᗘูࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚⿕⅏ᙳ㡪࡟㐪࠸ࡀ⏕ࡌࡓ࠿࡟ࡘ
࠸࡚ࡶㄪ࡭ࡿࠋ฼⏝ྍ⬟࡞ᖺ㱋༊ศࡣ㸪65㹼74 ṓ࡜ 75 ṓ௨ୖࡢ 2 ༊ศ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᖺ㱋༊ศูࡢ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ୖグィ⟬ᘧࡢ(A)࡟ྛᖺ㱋༊ศࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸪(B)࡟ᙜヱᖺ㱋ேཱྀࢆ௦ධࡋ࡚ồࡵࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪௓ㆤᗘู࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪኱⃝㸦2015㸧࡟ೌ࠸㸪➨ 1 ྕ⿕ಖ㝤⪅࡟༨ࡵࡿせᨭ᥼ 1㹼2㸪せ௓ㆤ 1
㹼3㸦2010 ᖺ௨๓ࡣู༊ศ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓ⤒㐣ⓗ௓ㆤࢆྵࡴ)㸪せ௓ㆤ 4㹼5 ࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆ 65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀ࡛㝖ࡍࡇ࡜࡛㸪
ࠕ㍍ᗘࠖ
㸪
ࠕ୰ᗘࠖ
㸪
ࠕ㔜ᗘࠖ3 ศ㢮ࡢ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀồࡵࡓࠋ ḟ࡟㸪ᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪௨ୗࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᆅᇦⓗ≉ᚩࢆࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪ୖ㏙ࡋࡓᅛᐃຠᯝ
࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪஺⤡せᅉࡢᙳ㡪ࢆྍ⬟࡞㝈ࡾྲྀࡾ㝖ࡃࠋࡲࡎ㸪௓ㆤ᪋タࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ౪⤥యไࢆ⾲ࡍኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪⪁ே௓ㆤ⚟♴᪋タᐃဨᩘ࡜⪁ே௓ㆤಖ㝤᪋タᐃဨᩘࢆཌ⏕ປാ┬ࡢࠕ௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫ࣭஦ᴗᡤㄪᰝࠖࡼࡾධ
ᡭࡋࡓࠋ་⒪ࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ౪⤥యไࢆ⾲ࡍኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪୍⯡デ⒪ᡤ⑓ᗋᩘ࡜⑓㝔⑓ᗋᩘࢆཌ⏕ປാ┬ࡢࠕ་⒪᪋タㄪᰝࠖࡼࡾධᡭࡋࡓࠋຍ࠼࡚㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧࡢேཱྀᵓ㐀ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢᣦᶆ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ேཱྀᐦᗘ㸪⏨ዪேཱྀ๭ྜ㸪㧗㱋໬⋡ࢆồࡵࡓࠋேཱྀᐦᗘࡣ㸪⥲ேཱྀࢆྍఫᆅ㠃✚࡛๭ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⏨ዪேཱྀ๭ྜ࡜㧗㱋໬⋡ࡣ㸪ዪᛶேཱྀ࡜ 65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀࢆ⥲ேཱྀ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ㝖ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⥲ேཱྀ࠾ࡼࡧዪᛶேཱྀࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ⥲ົ┬ࡢࠕఫẸᇶᮏྎᖒேཱྀ⛣ືሗ࿌ᖺሗࠖࡼࡾ㸪ྍఫᆅ㠃✚ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣᅜᅵ஺㏻┬ᅜᅵᆅ⌮㝔ࡢࠕ඲ᅜ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ᕷ༊⏫ᮧู㠃✚ㄪࠖࡼࡾ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀධᡭࡋࡓࠋ65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀ࡟ࡣୖ㏙ࡢࠕ௓ㆤಖ೺஦ᴗሗ࿌ࠖ࠿ࡽධᡭࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠋ௚࡟ࡶ㸪ᆅ᪉බඹᅋయࡢ㈈ᨻຊᣦᩘࢆ⥲ົ┬ࡢࠕᆅ᪉බඹ
ᅋయࡢ୺せ㈈ᨻᣦᶆ୍ぴࠖࡼࡾ 12㸪⣡⛯⩏ົ⪅୍ேᙜࡓࡾㄢ⛯ᡤᚓࢆ⥲ົ┬ࡢࠕᕷ⏫ᮧ⛯ㄢ⛯≧ἣ➼ࡢㄪࠖࡼࡾ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀධᡭࡋࡓࠋ⣡⛯⩏ົ⪅୍ேᙜࡓࡾㄢ⛯ᡤᚓࡢᐇ㉁໬࡟ࡣ㸪㒔㐨ᗓ┴ูࡢࢹࣇ࣮ࣞࢱ࣮ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪ᆅᇦ⤒῭ࡢ⤒῭Ỉ‽ࢆࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪ᐇ㉁໬ࡉࢀࡓ┴ෆ⥲⏕⏘ࢆෆ㛶ᗓࡢࠕ┴Ẹ⤒῭ィ⟬ࠖࡼࡾධᡭࡋࡓࠋ᭱ᚋ࡟㸪Ẽ ࡜㝆Ỉ㔞࡞࡝ࡢẼ㇟せᅉࢆࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪ࢢࣜࢵࢻࣞ
࣋ࣝࡢ᪥ูᖹᆒẼ ࡜᪥ู㝆Ỉ㔞ࢆࠕ㎰◊ᶵᵓ࣓ࢵࢩࣗ㎰ᴗẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࠖࡼࡾධᡭࡋ㸪ᕷ༊⏫ᮧࡈ࡜࡟ᖺ
ูᖹᆒ್ࢆồࡵࡓࠋ

11 ᗈᇦ㐃ྜࡢചୗ࡟࠶ࡿᕷ⏫ᮧࢆ㝖࠸ࡓ 1530 ࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧࢆศᯒ࡟⏝࠸ࡿࠋ
12 ᇶ‽㈈ᨻ཰ධ㢠ࢆᇶ‽㈈ᨻ㟂せ㢠࡛㝖ࡋ࡚ᚓࡓᩘ್࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪㐣ཤ㸱ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆྲྀࡗࡓࡶࡢࠋ㈈ᨻຊᣦᩘࡀ㧗࠸࡯࡝㸪

ᬑ㏻஺௜⛯⟬ᐃୖࡢ␃ಖ㈈※ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ㸪㈈※࡟వ⿱ࡀ࠶ࡿ⮬἞య࡟࡞ࡿࠋ


- 12 -

⾲ 1 ᇶᮏ⤫ィ㔞
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ᖹᆒ

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⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

0.12

0.32

0

1

65 ṓ௨ୖせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦1 ୓ேᑐ㸧

1706

299

370

4018

65㹼74 ṓせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦1 ୓ேᑐ㸧

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91

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1416

75 ṓ௨ୖせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦1 ୓ேᑐ㸧

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1710

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865

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2917

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423

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1145

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288

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0.53

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13

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5

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2

16

(ὀ) ࢧࣥࣉࣝࢧ࢖ࢬࡣ 16823㸦= 1530 ⮬἞య×11 ᖺ㸫7㸧ࠋᗈᇦ㐃ྜࡢചୗ࡟࠶ࡿᕷ༊⏫ᮧࢆ㝖ࡃࠋࡲࡓ㸪␗ᖖ್ࡀㄆࡵࡽࢀࡓ⚟ᓥ┴‫‮‬ᕝ⏫ࡢ 2007 ᖺᗘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸪࠾ࡼࡧ㸪㸴⮬἞య㸦཮ⴥ⏫㸪ᐩᒸ⏫㸪ᕝෆᮧ㸪ᗈ㔝⏫㸪᪂ᆅ⏫㸪ᴍⴥ⏫㸧ࡢ 2010 ᖺᗘࢹ࣮ࢱḞᦆศࢆࢧࣥࣉࣝ࠿ࡽ㝖࠸ࡓࡶࡢ࡜࡞ࡿࠋ

㸳㸬⤖ᯝ࡜⪃ᐹ ⾲ 2 ࡣ㸪⤫ィࢯࣇࢺ STATA17 ࡢ reghdfe ࢥ࣐ࣥࢻࢆ౑⏝ࡋ㸪඲ᅜࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧࢆᑐ㇟࡟ࡋࡓᕪศࡢᕪศ
ࣔࢹࣝࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ࡜࡞ࡿࠋ➨ 1 ิ┠ࡣ㸪⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ࡜⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ࠾ࡼࡧࡇࢀࡽࡢ஺ᕪ㡯ࡢࡳࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ㸪ᅛᐃຠᯝࢆධࢀࡎ࡟᥎ᐃࡋࡓࣔࢹࣝ㸪➨ 2㹼4 ิ┠ࡣ㸪➨ 1 ิ┠ࡢࣔࢹࣝ࡟㸪⮬἞యࡢᅛᐃຠᯝ㸪ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ㸪ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀ㏣ຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡗࡓࣔࢹࣝࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘ࡜⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ኚᩘࡢ஺ᕪ㡯ࡢಀᩘ㸦᥎ᐃࣔࢹࣝ(1)ࡢߙଷ㸧ࡣ㸪ࣔࢹࣝ㛫࡛ᴫࡡᏳᐃࡋࡓ್
ࢆྲྀࡗ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀእ⏕ⓗ࡞࢖࣋ࣥࢺ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡢ⿬௜ࡅ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡽ᥎ᐃࣔࢹࣝࡢ
࠺ࡕ㸪₯ᅾⓗ࡞஺⤡せᅉࢆ࡛ࡁࡿ㝈ࡾྲྀࡾ㝖࠸ࡓࣔࢹࣝ㸦➨ 4 ิ㸧ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡼࡾ㸪⿕⅏⮬἞య࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪௚ᆅᇦ࡟ẚ࡭࡚㸪⿕⅏ᚋ 7 ᖺ㛫࡛ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾᖹᆒ 74.91 ே㸦⣙ 5㸣㸧ቑຍࡋࡓࡇ࡜


- 13 -

㟈⅏๓2010 ᖺ4 ᭶᫬Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᪥ᮏ඲యࡢ65 ṓ௨ୖせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀ1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾ1651 ே㸪࡟࡞ࡿ 13ࠋ2018 ᖺ 4 ᭶᫬Ⅼ࡛ 1844 ே࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࡿ࡜㸪⿕⅏ᆅࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀ௚ᆅᇦ࡟ẚ࡭࡚㢧ⴭ࡟ቑຍࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡿࠋࡇࡢ⤖ᯝࡣ㸪ࢥࣥࢺ࣮࣭ࣟࣝࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࢆ඲ᅜࡢ⮬἞య࠿ࡽ⿕⅏┴ࡢ⮬἞య࡟㝈ᐃࡋࡓሙྜ㸦➨ 5 ิ㸧࡛ࡶ㡹೺࡛࠶ࡿ 14ࠋࡑࡢ௚ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘࡢᙳ㡪࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪⬮ὀ 4 ࡛ᣲࡆࡓඛ⾜◊✲࡜ᴫࡡᩚྜⓗ࡞⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓࠋ ḟ࡟㸪ᅗ 3㹼4 ࡛ほᐹࡉࢀࡿ㏻ࡾ㸪⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࢆᖺ㱋༊ศูࡸ௓ㆤᗘู࡟ศࡅࡓሙྜ࡛ࡶ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ༊ศ
࡟࠾࠸࡚⤫ィⓗ࡟᭷ព࡞್ࢆ࡜ࡗࡓ㸦⾲ 3㹼4㸧ࠋ⾲ 3 ࡢ➨ 1㹼3 ิࡣ 65 ṓ௨ୖ㸪65㹼74 ṓ㸪75 ṓ௨ୖࡢ
1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࢆ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡟⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅ 75 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾ 155.49 ே࡜኱ࡁࡃቑຍࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡿࠋ௓ㆤᗘูせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦⾲ 4 ࡢ➨ 2
㹼4 ิ㸧࡛ࡣ㸪୰ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤ࡛᭱ࡶ⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ኱⃝㸦2015㸧ࡢ▷ᮇᙳ㡪ศᯒ࡛ࡣ㸪75 ṓ௨ୖせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡜୰ᗘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢࡳ࡟⿕⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ࡀぢࡽࢀࡓࡀ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪඲࡚ࡢᖺ㱋࣭௓ㆤᗘ༊ศ࡛㛗ᮇ㛫࡟ࢃࡓࡿ⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࡀㄆࡵࡽࢀࡓࠋ ศᯒᮇ㛫 2007㹼2017 ᖺᗘࡢᖹᆒⓗຠᯝࢆ♧ࡋࡓ⾲ 2~4 ࡟ᑐࡋ㸪
⾲ 5 ࡛ࡣ᥎ᐃࣔࢹࣝ(2)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚⿕⅏௨㝆ࡢᖺᗘูᙳ㡪ࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋ㟈⅏┤ᚋ࠾ࡼࡧ⩣ᖺࡣ㸪75 ṓ௨ୖせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡜㍍ᗘ࣭୰ᗘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀ᭷ព࡟ቑຍࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࢃ࠿ࡿࠋ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆぢࡿ࡜㸪࡯ࡰࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ༊ศ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀᖺࠎୖ᪼ࡍࡿഴྥࢆྲྀࡗ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪⿕⅏ᆅ௨እ࡜ࡢ೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡀᖺࠎᗈࡀࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ᭱ᚋ࡟㸪⿕⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ᗘྜ࠸ࡸ⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩู࡟⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㸦⾲ 6㹼7㸧ࠋ㟈⅏࡟┤᥋㛵㐃ࡋࡓṚ⪅࣭⾜᪉୙᫂⪅ࡢ᭷↓࡜ὠἼ⿕ᐖࡢ᭷↓࡟ᛂࡌࡓせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡬ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸦⾲ 6㸧࠿ࡽࡣ㸪≉࡟ὠἼ⿕ᐖࡢ࠶ࡗࡓᆅᇦ࡛せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢቑຍഴྥࡀ㢧ⴭ࡟⾲ࢀࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪⾲ 7 ࡛ࡣ㸪⿕⅏๓ࡢ⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢከᑡ㸦Ҹᒃఫ⪅ࡢᚑ᮶ࡢ೺ᗣ≧ែ㸧࡜ேཱྀᐦᗘ㸦⮬἞యつᶍ࣭㐣␯໬ࡢᣦᶆ㸧ࡢ㧗ప࡟ࡼࡿᙳ㡪ᕪࢆㄪ࡭ࡓࠋ⿕⅏ᆅᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢቑຍࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡀඖࠎ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ⮬἞య࠾ࡼࡧேཱྀつᶍࡢᑠࡉ࠸⮬἞య࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪ࡼࡾ㢧ⴭ࡟⾲ࢀࡓࠋ ௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺࡟㸪⿕⅏⮬἞య࡟࠾ࡅࡿせ௓ㆤᗘㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡟ẚ࡭࡚㢧ⴭ࡟ቑຍࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ௓ㆤಖ㝤฼⏝⪅ࡢቑຍࡣ㸪⮬἞యࡢ㈝⏝㈇ᢸࢆቑࡸࡍࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ㸪ᐙ᪘ࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ࡍࡿ௓ຓ⪅ࡢ௓
ㆤ㈇ᢸࢆቑࡸࡍࡇ࡜࡟ࡶࡘ࡞ࡀࡿࠋ㟈⅏௨㝆ࡢ᚟⯆ࡀᛮࡗࡓࡼ࠺࡟㐍ࢇ࡛࠸࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺ពぢࡀከ࠸⌮⏤ࡢ୍➃࡜ࡋ࡚㸪⮬἞యࡸᐙ᪘ࡢ⑂ᘢࡀᐤ୚ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶྰᐃ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓ㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ୰࡛ࡶ㸪⿕ᐖᗘྜ࠸ࡸ⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡾ⿕⅏ࡢ㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪ࡣ኱ࡁࡃ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋ

13 ᣓᘼෆࡢቑຍ⋡ࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ࡢ⮬↛ᑐᩘ್ࢆ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡓࣔࢹࣝࡼࡾ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ
㸦㝃⾲ A1 ࡢ➨ 1 ิࢆཧ↷㸧ࠋ
14 ⾲ 2 ࡢ➨ 3㹼5 ิࢆẚ࡭ࡿ࡜㸪ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘࡢ᥎ᐃ್࡛ࡣ኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡀぢࡽࢀࡿࡶࡢࡀ࠶ࡿࡀ㸪ࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡀ

Ᏻᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪㟈⅏ᙳ㡪࡜ࡑࡢ௚ࡢ₯ᅾⓗ࡞஺⤡せᅉࡀ⊂❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ♧၀ࡉࢀࡿࠋࡉࡽ࡟㸪㝃⾲ A2 ࡛ࡣ㡹೺ᛶࢳ࢙ࢵࢡ࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺ࣭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢᐃ⩏ࢆᣑᙇࡋ㸪⿕⅏୰ᚰ㒊࠿ࡽࡉࡽ࡟㞳ࢀࡓ⿕⅏ᙳ㡪ࡢᙅ࠸ᆅᇦ㸦⿕ᐖࡣ኱ࡁࡃ࡞࠸ࡶࡢࡢ≉ูࡢ㈈ᨻ᥼ຓཬࡧຓᡂࢆཷࡅࡓ⮬἞యࡸ㸪㟈⅏ᙜ᪥࡟ᖐᏯᅔ㞴ᆅᇦ࡜࡞ࡗࡓᮾி㒔ࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧ㸧ࢆࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ
࣓ࣥࢺ࡟㏣ຍࡋࡓ᥎ᐃࡶヨࡳࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺຠᯝࡀ㏴ῶࡋࡓࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪⌮ㄽⓗ࡟ࡶᩚྜⓗ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜࠸࠼ࡿࠋ


- 14 -



⾲ 2 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
඲ᅜ
඲ᅜ
඲ᅜ
(1)
(2)
(3)
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

඲ᅜ
(4)

⿕⅏┴ࡢࡳ
(5)

-131.51***(15.85)⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

160.60***160.60***137.09***(3.85)(3.85)(6.00)

78.75***

79.70***

79.00***

74.91***

76.99***(12.90)(13.09)(12.74)(12.04)(14.27)0.06**

0.06***

0.06(0.03)(0.02)(0.05)

0.04

0.00(0.03)(0.02)(0.07)

0.13**

0.20***

0.28*(0.06)(0.06)(0.17)⪁ே௓ㆤ⚟♴᪋タᐃဨᩘ⪁ே௓ㆤಖ㝤᪋タᐃဨᩘ୍⯡デ⒪ᡤ⑓ᗋᩘ

-0.05*

⑓㝔⑓ᗋᩘ
ேཱྀᐦᗘ

㧗㱋໬⋡
୍ேᙜࡓࡾㄢ⛯ᡤᚓ
㈈ᨻຊᣦᩘ
ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒẼ

⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ
ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝほ ᩘಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)(0.03)(0.10)

0.04**-0.05**-0.28**(0.02)(0.02)(0.13)

N
N
16823
0.07

Y
N
16823
0.34

11.39

-16.36(19.41)(22.31)(22.98)

7.99***-13.54***-23.74***(0.99)(3.76)(5.54)

0.07***

0.07***

0.15***(0.02)(0.02)(0.06)-5.78

21.36*

0.62(11.80)(12.06)(23.75)-9.11***-31.96***(3.45)(4.39)

2.87ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ㝆Ỉ㔞-0.14(0.03)-6.53

ዪᛶேཱྀ๭ྜ

-0.04

-0.02

-0.61

-21.85(16.59)-18.58***(1.77)(1.84)(4.97)

Y
N
16823
0.37

Y
Y
16823
0.04

Y
Y
4030
0.12

(ὀ) 2007~2017 ᖺᗘࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡋ㸪ࣔࢹࣝ(1)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡋࡓࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡣ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᣓᘼෆࡣ⮬἞యࣞ࣋ࣝࡢࢡࣛࢫࢱ࣮ࣟࣂࢫࢺᶆ‽ㄗᕪࢆ♧ࡍࠋ***,**,*ࡣ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1㸣㸪5㸣㸪10㸣Ỉ‽࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍࠋ
- 15 -



⾲ 3 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪㸸ᖺ㱋༊ศูせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ඲య

65㹼74 ṓ75 ṓ௨ୖ

(1)

(2)

(3)

74.91***

8.16*

155.49*** ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

(12.04)(4.54)(20.40)ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘYYY⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝYYYᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

ほ ᩘ

16823

16823

16823

ಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)

0.04

0.01

0.04


⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮(ὀ) ⾲ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ➨ 1 ิࡣ㸪⾲ 2 ࡢ➨ 4 ิࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋ

⾲ 4 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪㸸௓ㆤᗘูせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ

඲య

㍍ᗘ

୰ᗘ

㔜ᗘ

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

74.91***

28.48***

37.49***

8.94**

 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

(12.04)(6.57)(8.51)(4.46)

ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ

Y

Y

Y

Y

⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

Y

ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

Y

ほ ᩘ

16823

16823

16823

16823

ಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)

0.04

0.02

0.03

0.01


⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮(ὀ) ⾲ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ➨ 1 ิࡣ㸪⾲ 2 ࡢ➨ 4 ิࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋ
- 16 -



⾲ 5 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿ୰㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪඲య65㹼74 ṓ75 ṓ௨ୖ

㍍ᗘ

୰ᗘ

㔜ᗘ

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

74.91***

8.16*

155.49***28.48***

37.49***

8.94**(12.04)(4.54)(20.40)(6.57)(8.51)(4.46)

10.01

-1.51

26.19**

14.69***(7.06)(3.42)(11.89)(4.17)(5.51)(3.77)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

53.05***

7.02

97.94***

25.09***

28.90***-0.94

 ×2011 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(10.91)(5.03)(17.01)(6.23)(7.93)(4.29)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

76.95***

11.43**

132.63***26.78***

40.50***

9.67*

 ×2012 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(13.08)(5.82)(20.58)(7.33)(8.88)(5.08)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

79.11***

10.41*

139.67***28.10***

41.43***

9.57*

 ×2013 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(14.04)(5.81)(22.75)(7.76)(9.78)(5.12)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

92.78***

11.23**

173.01***31.01***

48.25***

13.52**

 ×2014 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(14.68)(5.58)(24.51)(7.88)(10.19)(5.66)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

97.44***

5.18

197.36***28.42***

55.34***

13.68**

 ×2015 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(15.35)(6.18)(25.94)(8.41)(10.61)(6.32)

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

88.33***

6.40

214.85***27.67***

45.00***

15.66**

 ×2016 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(15.88)(5.52)(27.98)(8.99)(11.02)(6.46)

104.51***

14.69**

268.82***45.99***

44.41***

14.10**

 ×2017 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(16.28)(6.01)(29.73)(8.87)(11.75)(6.35)

ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

ほ ᩘ

16823

16823

16823

16823

16823

16823

ಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)

0.04

0.01

0.05

0.02

0.03

0.01

2010-2017 ࡢᖹᆒຠᯝ
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮
ᖺᗘูຠᯝ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2010 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

-1.66

-3.02

(ὀ) ࠕ2010-2017 ࡢᖹᆒຠᯝࠖࡣ⾲ 2㹼4 ࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋࠕᖺᗘูຠᯝࠖࡣ㸪2007~2017 ᖺᗘࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡋ㸪ࣔࢹ
ࣝ(2) ࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡣ 1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᣓᘼෆࡣ⮬἞యࣞ࣋ࣝࡢࢡࣛࢫࢱ࣮ࣟࣂ
ࢫࢺᶆ‽ㄗᕪࢆ♧ࡍࠋ***,**,*ࡣ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1㸣㸪5㸣㸪10㸣Ỉ‽࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍࠋ
- 17 -



⾲ 6 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪㸸⿕⅏ูࣞ࣋ࣝṚ⪅࣭⾜᪉୙᫂⪅
ὠἼ⿕ᐖ
඲య
ࡢ᭷↓
ࡢ᭷↓

(1)
(2)
(3)
74.91***
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
(12.04)
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮
64.03***

Ṛ⪅࣭⾜᪉୙᫂⪅࡞ࡋ ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮Ṛ⪅࣭⾜᪉୙᫂⪅࠶ࡾ ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮(15.16)84.00***(17.34)60.39***

ὠἼ⿕ᐖ࡞ࡋ
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ὠἼ⿕ᐖ࠶ࡾ
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ
⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ
ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝほ ᩘಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)(12.59)115.92***(27.59)

Y
Y
Y
16823
0.04

Y
Y
Y
16823
0.04

Y
Y
Y
16823
0.04

(ὀ) ⾲ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ

⾲ 7 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪㸸⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩูPanel A. ⿕⅏๓ (2009 ᖺ) ࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸸

ᑡ࡞࠸ᆅᇦ

ከ࠸ᆅᇦ

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

46.20***

119.48***(12.64)(26.48)ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ
⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ
ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝほ ᩘಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)

Y
Y
Y
8400
0.08

Y
Y
Y
8423
0.03

Panel B. ⿕⅏๓ (2009 ᖺ) ࡢேཱྀᐦᗘ㸸

ప࠸ᆅᇦ

㧗࠸ᆅᇦ

⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

94.05***

35.95**(16.14)(14.61)

Y
Y
Y
8409
0.03

Y
Y
Y
8414
0.07

ࢥࣥࢺ࣮ࣟࣝኚᩘ
⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝ
ᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝほ ᩘಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)(ὀ) ⾲ 2 ࡢὀࢆཧ↷ࠋ
- 18 -㸴㸬⤖ㄽ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣ㸪ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ⿕⅏⪅ࡢ೺ᗣ≧ែ࡟ཬࡰࡍ㛗ᮇⓗᙳ㡪ࢆᐃ㔞໬ࡍࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㸪2007㹼2017ᖺᗘ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࡢබⓗ௓ㆤಖ㝤ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᕪศࡢᕪศἲ࡟ࡼࡿᅉᯝ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࠋศᯒࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢேཱྀᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡣ㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢ⮬἞య࡟ẚ࡭࡚ᖺࠎቑຍࡍࡿഴྥ࡟࠶ࡿࡇ࡜
ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓ㸪㟈⅏ᚋࡍࡄࡣ㍍ᗘ࣭୰ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢࡳࡀୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀ㸪᫬㛫ࡢ⤒㐣࡟క࠸㔜ᗘࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟ࡶᙳ㡪ࡀ⾲ࢀࡣࡌࡵࡓࠋ௒ᚋ㸪ࡉࡽ࡟㔜⑕໬ࡋࡓせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ࡀቑຍࡍࡿ
ྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡾ㸪௓ㆤணഛ㌷࡟ྥࡅࡓࡼࡾ୍ᒙࡢ࢔ࣇࢱ࣮ࢣ࢔ࡀᚲせ࡜ࡉࢀࡿࠋ ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࡇࢀࡽ⿕⅏ࡢᙳ㡪ࡣ⿕⅏⮬἞యࡢ≉ᚩ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࡶ኱ࡁࡃ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓࠋ≉࡟㸪ὠἼ⿕ᐖࡢ࠶ࡗࡓ⮬἞యࡸேཱྀつᶍࡢᑠࡉ࡞⿕⅏⮬἞య㸪㟈⅏௨๓ࡼࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅๭ྜࡢ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ⿕⅏⮬἞య࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢࡼࡾ㢧ⴭ࡞ቑຍࡀㄆࡵࡽࢀࡓࠋ 㟈⅏࠿ࡽࡢ᚟⯆ࡣᚎࠎ࡟㐍ࡳ㸪⿕⅏⪅ࡸ⿕⅏ᆅᇦࡢᨭ᥼άືࡶ⥅⥆ⓗ࡟⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୍᪉࡛㸪㟈⅏ࡀṧࡋࡓ∎⑞ࡣ௒ࡶ࡞࠾ṧࡾ⥆ࡅ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪⿕⅏࡟క࠺೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡀ㸪⿕⅏ᆅෆእࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ⿕⅏ᆅ㛫࡛ࡶᣑ኱ࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆᮏ◊✲ࡣ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ௓ㆤ㈇ᢸࡢ୺࡞ᢸ࠸ᡭࡀ㓄അ⪅ࡸᏊ࡝ࡶ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜࠸࠺⌧≧࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪᫬㛫ⓗࢥࢫࢺࡸ௓ㆤ⑂ࢀ࡞࡝࡟ࡼ
ࡿேⓗ࡞ᶵ఍㈝⏝ࡀࡉࡽ࡟㧗ࡲࡿ࡜࡞ࡿ࡜㸪ᗈࡀࡿ᱁ᕪࡣ೺ᗣ᱁ᕪࡔࡅ࡟࡜࡝ࡲࡽ࡞࠸࠿ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸ࠋᮏ
◊✲⤖ᯝࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅࡟㝈ࡽࡎᵝࠎ࡞♫఍⤒῭ᣦᶆࢆ⥅⥆ⓗ࡟ほᐹࡋ⥆ࡅࡿࡇ࡜ࡢ㔜せᛶࢆᨵࡵ࡚ᥦ
㉳ࡋࡓࠋ௒ࡶṧࡿ⿕⅏ࡢㅖᙳ㡪ࢆⓗ☜࡟ぢᐃࡵ㸪ᙳ㡪ᗘྜ࠸࡟ᛂࡌࡓᨭ᥼⟇ࢆᡭ᥃ࡅࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⿕⅏ᆅᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᱁ᕪᣑ኱せᅉࡢⱆࢆ᪩ᮇ࡟᦬ࡳྲྀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵ࡟ࡶ㸪௒ᚋࡢศᯒ࡛ࡣ㸪せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢቑຍせᅉࢆ᥈ࡾ㸪ࡑࡢ࣓࢝ࢽࢬ࣒ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪ࡼࡾලయⓗ࡞᪋⟇࡟ࡘ࡞ࡆࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ
ồࡵࡽࢀࡿࠋ

ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩࣭NHK㸦2020㸧ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ 9 ᖺ ⿕⅏⪅࢔ࣥࢣ࣮ࢺ
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/shinsai9portal/questionnaire/㸦2021-02-05 ཧ↷㸧࣭኱⃝⌮Ἃ㸦2015㸧ࠕᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀᕷ⏫ᮧࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡࡟୚࠼ࡓᙳ㡪ࠖཌ⏕ࡢᣦᶆ 62(3): 25-31㸬࣭ᰩ┒㡲㞞Ꮚ㸪Ώ㎶᭶Ꮚ㸪㧗⇩㸪ᫍ᪦஧㸦2009㸧ࠕ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ูせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ๭ྜࡢ㍑ᕪ࡜㛵㐃ࡍࡿせᅉࡢ⥲ྜゎᯒࠖཌ⏕ࡢᣦᶆ 56(4): 22-28㸬࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ་⒪᪋タㄪᰝࠖhttps://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/79-1.html㸦2020-11-29 ཧ↷㸧࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ௓ㆤࢧ࣮ࣅࢫ᪋タ࣭஦ᴗᡤㄪᰝࠖhttps://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/24-22-2.html
㸦2020-11-29 ཧ↷㸧࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ௓ㆤಖ㝤஦ᴗ≧ἣሗ࿌ࠖhttps://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/84-1.html㸦2020-11-29 ཧ↷㸧࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ೺ᗣ᪥ᮏ 21㸦⥲ㄽ㸧ࠖhttps://www.mhlw.go.jp/www1/topics/kenko21_11/s0.html
㸦2020-10-03 ཧ↷㸧
- 19 -

࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ೺ᗣ᪥ᮏ 21㸦➨஧ḟ㸧ࠖhttps://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/kenkou/dl/kenkounippon21_03.pdf
㸦2020-10-03 ཧ↷㸧࣭ཌ⏕ປാ┬㸦2019㸧
ࠕ2019 ᖺᅜẸ⏕άᇶ♏ㄪᰝࡢᴫἣࠖ
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/k-tyosa/k-tyosa19/㸦2021-02-15 ཧ↷㸧࣭ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬ᅜᅵᆅ⌮㝔ࠕ඲ᅜ㒔㐨ᗓ┴ᕷ༊⏫ᮧู㠃✚ㄪࠖ
https://www.gsi.go.jp/KOKUJYOHO/MENCHO-title.htm㸦2020-11-29 ཧ↷㸧࣭ᅜ❧♫఍ಖ㞀࣭ேཱྀၥ㢟◊✲ᡤࠕ᪥ᮏࡢᑗ᮶᥎ィேཱྀ㸦ᖹᡂ 29 ᖺ᥎ィ㸧ࠖ http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2017/pp_zenkoku2017.asp㸦2020-10-03 ཧ↷㸧࣭㏆⸨ඞ᫂㸪ⰱ⏣Ⓩ௦㸪ᖹ஭ᐶ㸪୕⃝ோᖹ㸪㕥ᮌె௦㸦2012㸧ࠕ㧗㱋⪅࡟࠾ࡅࡿᡤᚓ࣭ᩍ⫱ᖺᩘูࡢṚஸ࣭せ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡࡜ࡑࡢᛶᕪɆ$*(6 ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ⦪᩿◊✲Ɇࠖ་⒪࡜♫఍ 22(1): 19-30㸬࣭ΎỈ㇂ㅍ㸪✄಴඾Ꮚ㸦2006㸧
ࠕබⓗ௓ㆤಖ㝤ไᗘࡢ㐠⏝࡜ಖ㝤⪅㈈ᨻ㸸ᕷ⏫ᮧࣞ࣋ࣝࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡼࡿ᳨ドࠖ఍ィ᳨ᰝ◊✲ 34: 83-95㸬
࣭⥲ົ┬ࠕᕷ⏫ᮧ⛯ㄢ⛯≧ἣ➼ࡢㄪࠖ
https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/jichi_zeisei/czaisei/czaisei_seido/ichiran09.html
㸦2020-11-29 ཧ↷㸧࣭⥲ົ┬ࠕఫẸᇶᮏྎᖒேཱྀ⛣ືሗ࿌ᖺሗࠖhttps://www.stat.go.jp/data/idou/㸦2021-02-13 ཧ↷㸧࣭⥲ົ┬ࠕᆅ᪉බඹᅋయࡢ୺せ㈈ᨻᣦᶆ୍ぴࠖhttps://www.soumu.go.jp/iken/shihyo_ichiran.html
㸦2021-02-06 ཧ↷㸧࣭ෆ㛶ᗓࠕ┴Ẹ⤒῭ィ⟬ࠖhttps://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/sonota/kenmin/kenmin_top.html
㸦2020-02-06 ཧ↷㸧࣭ෆ㛶ᗓࠕᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ㸸㜵⅏᝟ሗࡢ࣮࣌ࢪࠖhttp://www.bousai.go.jp/kyoiku/hokenkyousai/jishin.html
㸦2020-12-20 ཧ↷㸧࣭ෆ㛶ᗓᨻ⟇⤫ᣓᐁ(2018)ࠕせ௓ㆤ㸦せᨭ᥼㸧ㄆᐃ⋡ࡢᆅᇦᕪせᅉ࡟㛵ࡍࡿศᯒࠖ
https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/2018/09seisakukadai15-0.pdf㸦2020-10-03 ཧ↷㸧࣭ෆ㛶ᗓ୰ኸ㜵⅏఍㆟㸦2011㸧ࠕᮾ໭ᆅ᪉ኴᖹὒἈᆅ㟈ࢆᩍカ࡜ࡋࡓᆅ㟈࣭ὠἼᑐ⟇࡟㛵ࡍࡿᑓ㛛ㄪᰝ఍ࠖ
http://www.bousai.go.jp/kaigirep/chousakai/tohokukyokun/㸦2021-03-08 ཧ↷㸧࣭୰ᮧ⚽ᜏ㸦2006㸧
ࠕཷ⒪≧ἣࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⋡ࡢᆅᇦᕪ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࠖཌ⏕ࡢᣦᶆ 53(5): 1-7.
࣭㎰◊ᶵᵓ࣓ࢵࢩࣗ㎰ᴗẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ https://amu.rd.naro.go.jp/wiki_open/doku.php㸦2020-09-10 ཧ↷㸧࣭ᮏ㇂ு㸦2013㸧ࠕᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏⿕⅏⪅࣭㑊㞴⪅ࡢ೺ᗣቑ㐍ࠖ⾜ື་Ꮫ◊✲ 19(2): 68-74㸬
࣭Deryugina, T. and D. Molitor. (2021) “The Causal Effects of Place on Health and Longevity.” Journalof Economic Perspectives, 35(4): 147-170.
࣭Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion,
https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/oshirase/20110311_sanriku-oki.htm㸦2021-03-08 ཧ↷㸧࣭Inoue, Y. and S. Jeong. (2020) “Did the Number of Older People Requiring Long-Term Care and([SHQGLWXUH,QFUHDVHDIWHUWKH*UHDW(DVW-DSDQ(DUWKTXDNH"$QDO\VLVRI&KDQJHVRYHU6L[Years.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(5), 1621.

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- 20 -

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࣭Kakimoto, T. and S. Uchida. (2021) “Natural Disasters, Social Isolation and Alcohol Consumption in
WKH/RQJ5XQ(YLGHQFHIURPWKH*UHDW(DVW-DSDQ(DUWKTXDNHµ7RKRNX8QLYHUVLW\3ROLF\'HVLJQLab Discussion Paper, TUPD-2021-011, 29 pages.
࣭Kobashi, Y., T. Morita, A. Ozaki, T. Sawano, N. Moriyama, N. Ito, and M. Tsubokura. (2021)“Long-term Care Utilization Discrepancy Among the Elderly in Former Evacuation Areas,
Fukushima.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 1-3.
࣭Morita, T., M. Ando and Y. Ohtsu. (2019) “Mass Evacuation and Increases in Long-Term Care
Benefits: Lessons from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster.” PloS One, 14(9): e0218835.
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࣭Ogawa, S., M. Ishiki, K. Nako, M. Okamura, M. Senda, T. Sakamoto, and S. Ito. (2012) "Effects of the*UHDW (DVW -DSDQ (DUWKTXDNH DQG KXJH WVXQDPL RQ JO\FDHPLF FRQWURO DQG EORRG SUHVVXUH LQ
patients with diabetes mellitus." BMJ Open 2(2)e000830.
࣭Sawa, M., Y. Osaki, and H. Koishikawa. (2013) "Delayed recovery of caregivers from social
G\VIXQFWLRQ DQG SV\FKRORJLFDO GLVWUHVV DIWHU WKH *UHDW (DVW -DSDQ (DUWKTXDNH Journal of

Affective Disorders, 148(2–3): 413–417.
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M. Kami, T. Okawada, and H. Tachiya.  &KDQJHVLQPHWDEROLFSURILOHVDIWHUWKH*UHDW(DVWJapan Earth quake: Retrospective observational study." BMC Public Health, 13: 267.

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- 21 -

㝃⾲ A1 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ㸦⮬↛ᑐᩘ್㸧࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪඲య

65㹼74 ṓ75 ṓ௨ୖ

㍍ᗘ

୰ᗘ

㔜ᗘ

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

0.049***-0.0070.062***

0.101***

0.049***

0.018*(0.007)(0.029)(0.007)(0.028)(0.010)(0.011)⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

0.010**-0.0030.013***

0.054**

0.001-0.007

 ×2010 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

(0.004)(0.013)(0.005)(0.024)(0.007)(0.009)0.037***-0.0140.042***

0.100***

0.040***-0.009(0.006)(0.034)(0.006)(0.027)(0.009)(0.011)

0.051***-0.0100.055***

0.098***

0.054***(0.007)(0.033)(0.008)(0.029)(0.011)

0.053***-0.006

0.059***

0.108***

0.054***(0.008)(0.033)(0.008)(0.030)(0.011)(0.012)

0.061***

0.002

0.071***

0.112***

0.061***

0.033**(0.008)(0.033)(0.009)(0.030)(0.012)(0.014)0.061***-0.0220.078***

0.096***

0.069***

0.027*(0.009)(0.036)(0.009)(0.032)(0.013)(0.015)0.056***-0.0190.083***

0.093***

0.056***

0.034**(0.009)(0.034)(0.010)(0.036)(0.013)(0.016)

0.066***

0.012

0.101***

0.147***

0.059***

0.035**(0.010)(0.033)(0.011)(0.034)(0.014)(0.017)

2011-2017 ࡢᖹᆒຠᯝ
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
×⿕⅏௨㝆ࢲ࣑࣮

ᖺᗘูຠᯝ⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2011 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2012 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2013 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2014 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2015 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2016 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮
⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮
 ×2017 ᖺᗘࢲ࣑࣮

0.013(0.011)

0.019(ὀ) 2007~2017 ᖺᗘࡢᕷ༊⏫ᮧูࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡋ㸪ࣔࢹࣝ(1) ࢆ⏝࠸࡚᥎ᐃࡋࡓࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡟㸪1 ୓ேᙜࡓࡾせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘࡢ⮬↛ᑐᩘ್ࢆྲྀࡿࠋᣓᘼෆࡣ⮬἞యࣞ࣋ࣝࡢࢡࣛࢫࢱ࣮ࣟࣂࢫࢺᶆ‽ㄗᕪࢆ♧ࡍࠋ***,**,*ࡣ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1㸣㸪5㸣㸪10㸣Ỉ‽࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍࠋ
- 22 -



㝃⾲ A2 ᮾ᪥ᮏ኱㟈⅏ࡀ 65 ṓ௨ୖࡢせ௓ㆤㄆᐃ⪅ᩘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪㸸␗࡞ࡿࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺ
≉ᐃ⿕⅏༊ᇦ

‽≉ᐃ⿕⅏༊ᇦ

ᖐᏯᅔ㞴ᆅᇦ

㸦⾲ 2 ࡢᇶ‽㸦࿘㎶ᇦ 34 ᕷ⏫ᮧ㸧

㸦ᮾி 47 ᕷ༊⏫ᮧ㸧

ࣔࢹࣝ㸧

ࢆ㏣ຍ

ࢆ㏣ຍ

180

214

261

(1)

(2)

(3)

74.91***

63.58***

64.54***

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(12.04)(10.66)(9.57)⪁ே௓ㆤ⚟♴᪋タᐃဨᩘ

0.06***

0.06***

0.06***(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)

0.00

0.00

-0.00

(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)

0.20***

0.20***

0.20***(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)

-0.04

-0.04

-0.04

(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)-0.05**-0.05**-0.07***(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)

11.39

10.89

9.88

(22.31)(22.29)(22.13)-13.54***-13.99***-13.92***(3.76)(3.74)(3.74)

0.07***

0.07***

0.07***(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)

21.36*

23.46*

22.05*(12.06)(12.18)(12.13)-31.96***-32.54***-33.21***(4.39)(4.41)(4.43)

-0.61

-0.56

-0.07

(1.84)(1.84)(1.85)⮬἞యᅛᐃຠᯝYYYᖺᗘᅛᐃຠᯝ

Y

Y

Y

ほ ᩘ

16823

16823

16823

ಟṇ῭ࡳỴᐃಀᩘ (within)

0.04

0.04

0.04

ࢺ࣮ࣜࢺ࣓ࣥࢺ⮬἞యᩘ㸸⿕⅏ᆅࢲ࣑࣮

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