Overview of the Asian Modeling Exercise

Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, Jae Edmonds
September 17, 2009
Tsukuba, Japan

Acknowledgements

Our thanks to the following organizations for their funding:This is an open process and we welcome funding fromother interested parties.

Goals of the Exercise
Objective: to better articulate the role of Asia in addressing
climate change.
Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Role inAddressing Climate Change
Enhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent Asia

Means: To bring together global modelers that commonly
participate in efforts to explore international policy architectures withregional modelers and experts with Asia-specific knowledge,understanding, data, and analysis.
A coordinated modeling exercise that attempts to link thesecommunities to provide more effective modeling and analysis of
Asia within a global context.
A small set of coordinated scenarios and a range of extensions byindividual modeling teams.

Motivation: Asia’s Role
GDP

100%
90%

90%
80%

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%

40%
30%
10%

90%
80%

0%
2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

PRIMARY ENERGYChinaJapan
Southeast Asia

100%India
KoreaROW

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

2080

2095

CO2 EMISSIONS
China
Japan
Southeast Asia

India
Korea
ROW

70%60%50%40%30%20%10%10%0%
2005

2005

% of Global Total% of Global Total

50%20%100%India
Korea
ROW

60%10%0%

China
Japan
Southeast Asia

70%20%

2005

POPULATION

100%India
Korea
ROW% of Global Total% of Global Total

80%

China
Japan
Southeast Asia

0%
2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

100%
90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%AM
FU
N
D
GTE
M
IM
AG
M E
ER
M GE
ESSA
M GE
ini
CA
M
POLE
S
SG
W M
IT
C
H

ROW

India

China

20%

ROW

India

China

% of Global Total

GDP

80%0%

AM
FU
N
D
GTE
M
IM
AG
M E
ER
M GE
ES
SA
M GE
ini
CA
M
POLE
S
SGW M
IT
C
H

40%

ET
SA
PTI

60%

% of Global Total

AM
FU
N
D
GTE
M
IM
AG
M E
ER
M GE
ES
SA
M GE
ini
CA
M
POLE
S
SG
W M
ITC
H

ET
SA
PTI

% of Global Total
100%

ET
SA
PTI

AM
FU
N
D
GTE
MIM
AG
M E
ER
M GE
ESSA
M GEiniCAM
POLES
SGW M
ITCHETSA
PTI% of Global Total

Motivation: China & India’s Role in 2050
100%

PRIMARY ENERGY
100%
90%80%70%60%
50%
40%
30%20%
10%0%

POPULATION

80%

60%
ROW

40%India

China

20%0%

CO2 EMISSIONS

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (Reference)
ROWIndia

China

Two Categories of Issues for Better
Articulating the Role of Asia in Addressing
Climate Change
Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Role inAddressing Climate Change
Have we identified the most pressing issues that modeling couldaddress?
Have we, accordingly, articulated the most valuable scenarios?
Enhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent Asia
What key elements are missing from the representations of Asia
in the global models? In the regional models?
Which elements could we improve through this exercise? How?
How can the global models leverage off the regional models?
How can the regional models leverage off the global models?

ScheduleFirst Meeting:When: September 17-18, 2009
Where: Tsukuba, Japan
Objective:
Review Existing Asian Scenarios WorkPlan a New Scenario Exercise

2 to 3 subsequent meetings, every 6 months
2nd Meeting: March 2010
3rd Meeting: September 2010
Final Product:
Special Issue of a Journal (2011)

1st Meeting’s Agenda
8:30 to 8:40
8:40 to 8:45
8:45 to 9:20

AGENDADay 1: September 17, 2009
Welcome – Mikiko Kainuma
Introduction – Jae Edmonds
Overview – Leon Clarke

OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE GLOBAL MODELS
Chair: Leon Clarke

9:20 to 9:40
9:40 to 10:00
10:00 to 10:20

Kate Calvin: PNNL
Geoff Blanford: EPRI
Keywan Riahi: IIASA

10:20 to 10:40

COFFEE BREAKOVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE REGIONAL MODELS
Chair: Jae Edmonds

10:40 to 11:00
11:00 to 11:20
11:20 to 11:40
11:40 to NOON

Ram Shrestha: Asian Institute of Technology
Chin Siong Ho: U. Technology Malaysia
Jiang Kejun: China Energy Research InstituteYong Gun Kim: Korea Environment InstituteDay 1: 18 Presentations, 20
Minutes EachWe need to be very strict
about time management
Pre-defined presentation
template
4 slides describing themodel

LUNCH

NOON to 13:00

Jiang Kejun: What Do Asian Policy Makers Want To Know: China

OVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE GLOBAL MODELS
Chair: Geoff Blanford

13:00 to 13:20
13:20 to 13:40
13:40 to 14:00
14:00 to 14:20
14:20 to 14:40
14:40 to 15:00
15:00 to 15:20

Valentina Bosetti: FEEM
Elmar Kriegler: PIKPeter Russ: EU
Junichi Fujino: NIES
Tom Kram: PBL
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe: WB
Atsushi Kurosawa: JIEA

15:20 to 15:40

COFFEE BREAKOVERVIEW OF MODELING CAPABILITY—THE REGIONAL MODELS
Chair: Stephanie Walldoff

15:40 to 16:00
16:00 to 16:20
16:20 to 16:40
16:40 to 17:00

Suduk Kim: AJOU University
Vaibhav Chaturvedi or P.R. Shukla: IIAM
Zhang Xiliang: Tsinghua University
Shuichi Ashina: NIESOPTIONS FOR THE ASIAN MODELING EXERCISE
Chair: Leon Clarke

17:00 to 17:30

OPEN DISCUSSION

1 slide on Asian baselines
3 slides on Asian scenarios

Day 2:Focus on the plan goingforward

Participants
41 People are Attending the First Meeting
11 from USA, 9 from Europe, 6 from Japan, 6 from India, 4 fromChina, 2 from Korea, 1 from Indonesia, 1 from Thailand, 1 fromMalaysia
10 Global Modeling Teams:
EU, EPRI, FEEM, IIASA, JGCRI, JIEA, NIES, PBL, PIK, WorldBank
6 Regional Modeling Teams:
Asian Institute of Technology, China Energy Research Institute,Tsinghua University, Korea Environment Institute, AJOU
University, IIAM

Possible Topics
Growth and Development Paths: The effect of different
population and economic growth assumptions in Asian regions
CHINA’S GDP

4035

MERGE Optimistic

35
30

MERGE Pessimistic25
GtCO2/yr

2520152015

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (Reference)

00
2180
2060
2040
202000202100

2080

02060

02040

52020

520

10102000

MERGE Optimistic

30

MERGE Pessimistic
Trillion 2005 U.S. $CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONSPossible Topics
International Climate Targets: The implications of varying internationalclimate policies on Asian regions
CHINA’S GDP

35

REFERENCE
4.5 W/m2 N.T.E.
3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.
2.6 W/m2 O.S.

162520151012108620

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios

IT
C

H

M
W

SG

E
ES
SA
G
E
M
ini
CA
M
M

ER
G
M

TE
M
G

W

IT
C

H

M
SG

ini
CA
M

E

M

M

ES
SA
G

ER
G

E

0

M

TE
M

1445

G

REFERENCE
4.5 W/m2 N.T.E.
3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.
2.6 W/m2 O.S.

18

Trillion 2005 U.S. $Trillion 2005 U.S. $30

INDIA’S GDP

20

Possible Topics
Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy
based commitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on
Asian regions
POLICY2035 Emissions by Sector

REGIONS

60

Power Sector Carbon
Intensity

50

Annex I

Africa, China, India, Latin America,Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia

GtCO2/yr

Economy-Wide CO2
Constraint

Buildings

40

Industry

30

Transport

20Electricity

100

Biofuels Target
Industry Carbon
Constraint
Policy-Based Crediting

Reference

China, India, Latin America, Korea,Middle East, Southeast Asia

Efficient 450

Alternate450

China, India, Latin America, Korea,
Southeast Asia

2035 Emissions by Region

China, Korea

50

Africa, China, India, Latin America,Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia

60

GtCO2/yr

CAFE Standard

ROW

40Asia30India
China

20

Annex I

100

Source: PNNL/Pew Center Collaboration

Reference

Efficient 450

Alternate 450

Possible Topics
Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfurstandards, BC policies) on Asian regions
300

GLOBAL SO2 EMISSIONS

4.0

Without Controls
250

GLOBAL MEANTEMPERATURE RISE

3.5

Without Controls
With Controls

With Controls
3.0degrees CTg S

200150100

2.52.0
1.5
1.0

50

0.50
2020

0.02035

2050

2065

2080

2095

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Possible Topics
Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology
availability, different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions
CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS

1420

Reference
Base Technology
Low Technology

1816Reference
Base Technology
Low Technology

1210

1412

GtCO2/yr

GtCO2/yr

INDIA’S CO2 EMISSIONS

1086864422

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference & Scenario 1 3.7 W/m2 N.T.E.)

210020802060204020202000

2100

2080206020400202020000Possible Topics
Land-use Policies: The impact of land-use policies (e.g., offsets, REDD) on
agriculture, land-use, and land-use change emissions in Asian regions.
CHINA’S LAND

INDIA’S LAND
350

1000
Reference Forest
UCT Forest

800

FFICT Forest

700

Reference Crops

600

300
250

UCT Crops
FFICT Crops

500
400
300

Million Ha

Million Ha900

Reference Forest
UCT Forest
FFICT Forest
Reference Crops
UCT Crops
FFICT Crops

200
150100200
10050002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference & Scenario 1 3.7 W/m2 O.S.)Possible Topics
Imperfect Cooperation on Climate Policy: The degree of emissions
leakage in Asian regions as a result of differentiated climate policies around the world.
12

CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS4INDIA’S CO2 EMISSIONSREFERENCE

REFERENCE
3DELAY

103GtCO2/yr

8
GtCO2/yr

DELAY

642212

100
ETSAP-TIAM

MESSAGEEMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (2030)

ETSAP-TIAM

MESSAGE

Possible Topics
Climate Policy on Energy Security and International Trade:The implications of climate policy on energy security and international trade within
Asia, and between Asia and the rest of the world.

REFERENCE
3.7 W/m2 OVERSHOOT

5040
EJ/yr

403030

EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (2100)

IT
C

ITCW

ETSA
P-T
IA
M
GTE
M
IM
A
M GE
ES
SA
G
E
M
iniC
AM
POLE
S

0
H

0SG
M

10-TIA
M
GTE
M
IM
A
M GE
ESSA
G
E
M
iniC
AM
PO
LE
S

10H

2020ET
SA
P

EJ/yr

50

REFERENCE
3.7 W/m2 OVERSHOOTW

60

60

INDIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION

SGM

70

CHINA’S OIL CONSUMPTIONPossible Topics
Growth and Development Paths: The effect of different population and economic
growth assumptions in Asian regions

International Climate Targets: The implications of varying international climate policies
on Asian regions

Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy basedcommitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on Asian regions

Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfur standards, BCpolicies) on Asian regions

Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology availability,different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions

Land-use Policies: The impact of land-use policies (e.g., offsets, REDD) on agriculture, landuse, and land-use change emissions in Asian regions.

Imperfect Cooperation on Climate Policy: The degree of emissions leakage in Asianregions as a result of differentiated climate policies around the world.

Climate Policy on Energy Security and International Trade: The implicationsof climate policy on energy security and international trade within Asia, and between Asia and therest of the world.

Address a subset of these in the core scenarios! address the rest in inextensions by the individual modeling groups. We must prioritize.

THIS IS A GOAL-ORIENTED MEETING
We have two primary objectives.
Figure out what sort modeling capabilities and results areout there, at both the regional and global scale.
Get a sense of the highest value next steps to move
forward on a coordinated scenario exercise.
Enhancing the Suite of Scenarios that Explore Asia’s Rolein Addressing Climate Change
Enhancing the Ability of Models to Effectively Represent
Asia

We want to keep conversation focused on these twoobjectives.
We have a lot of material to go through, so we will plan to
be dictatorial in keeping the process on track.