The 11th AIM International Workshop
19-21, February 2006
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Prediction of Forest Vegetation using Regional Climate Modelin South Korea- Focused on Pinus densiflora and Quercus mongolica -19 Feb, 2006
Jae Uk KIM, Dong Kun LEE(Seoul National University, Korea)

Objectives
To choose a suitable climate model in the South Korea
To verify connection between vegetation communities
and environmental factors
To predict potential distribution of Pinus densiflora andQuercus mongolica

2/17

Climate Models
centeracronymmodel

National Institute forEnvironmental Studies(NIES)

NIES/RAMS

NIES/RAMS
RCMA2Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction
and Research

HCCPR

HadCM3

A2

Australia’s Common
Wealth Scientific andIndustrial Research
Organization

CSIRO

CSIRO-Mk2

Canadian Center for
Climate Modeling andAnalysis

CCCma

CGCM2

CCSR/NIESCCSR/NIES
AGCM+CCSR OGCM

Center for Climate
Research Studies(CCSR)
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies(NIES)SRES scenario

A1

A2

1981-1990
2041-2050

B1

A2

A1

A2

time period

B1

B2

1950-2099

B2

1990-2100

B2

1900-2100

B2

1890-2100

3/17

Environmental factors
category
topography
climatesoiletc

factors (103)elevation, aspect, slope
mean temperature (yearly, January, August, Spring,
Summer, Fall, Winter), total precipitation (yearly, Spring,Summer, Fall, Winter)cobblestone of topsoil, gravel of topsoil, soil texture oftopsoil, erosion, master color of subsoil, cobblestone ofsubsoil, soil texture of subsoil, available depth of soil,
drainage classes, acidity of soil, organic
radiation, warmth index, coldness index

4/17

Flowchart
Pinus densiflora
Quercus mongolica

Current
ClimateTopography

Soil

etc

FutureClimateStatistical analysis

No

Verification

Yes

Equation

5/17

Current climate (1971~2000)

temperature

precipitation6/17

Future climate (2050)

HADCM3 GCM

CSIRO-Mk2 GCM

CGCM2 GCM

CCSR/NIES GCM
7/17

Future climate (2050)

NIES/RAMS RCM (temperature)

NIES/RAMS RCM (precipitation)
8/17

Future climate (1981~1990)

temperature

precipitation

9/17

Vegetation communities
Total : 170 communities
communities

ratio (%)

Pinus densiflora

29.97

Quercusmongolica

26.71

Pd - Qm

5.84

Quercusvariabilis

5.58

Pinus thunbergii

4.56

10/17

Pinus densiflora
rangesarea
elevation (m)aspectmeans
29.97 %

5~1,542317.97

SE / S / SW

slope(%)

0~166.4

33.98

mean
temperature (℃)

3.8~14.6

10.68

total precipitation(㎜)

971.7~1,750.7

1,252.09

warmth index(month·℃)

46.3~118.1

89.36

11/17

Quercus mongolica
rangesarea
elevation (m)aspectmeans
26.71 %

64~1,782

647.54

S / SE / SW

slope(%)

0~126.2

45.64

mean
temperature (℃)

2.0~13.8

7.81

total precipitation(㎜)

977.8~1,738.4

1,315.82

warmth index(month·℃)

34.6~111.4

71.57

12/17

Selected factors
category
topography
climatefactors (11)slope*
mean temperature* (January)soilnone gravelly*, very rocky*, clay loam*, fine loamy/bedrock*, acidity of soil**, organic**, cobblestone of subsoil*(<35ｍｍ), available depth of soil* (>50ｃｍ)

etc

radiation** significant correlations (Chisq <.0001)** significant correlations (Chisq <.05)

13/17

Simulation I

Observed communities

Simulated communities
14/17

Simulation II

Observed communities

Potential communities
15/17

Achievements
challenges associated with predicting the future climate using RCM
potential distribution of communities to climate change in KoreaLimitations and Considerations
to examine the potential distribution of communities by correlating theenvironmental factors without reflecting the natural succession
processes
variabilities of multiple RCM output results under various climate change
scenarios were not sufficiently consideredground truth field surveys to enhance the accuracy of the results were
not conducted16/17