The health benefits of developing renewable energy in China towards 2030
Hancheng Dai; Zhang Yanxu; Yang Xie
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Peking University; Harvard University

AIM workshop 2016; December10-11, 2016, Tsukuba, Japan
Introduction: Study objectives
Estimate externalities from energy production of fossil fuels;
I Chinese flavour air-pollution simulation model.
I Human health impacts of air pollution from the Energy sector in terms of mortality and morbidity.
I Costs and benefits considering externality cost.
I To calculate the True costs of fossil fuels.
IMethod: Coupling Energy-Emission-Air quality-Health and Economic Models

I

EDO and LEAP model from ERI
LEAP projects final energy consumption (excl.
power) in China,
I EDO projects power demand and SO2 & NOx in
30 provinces of China.
IEmission calculator calculates primaryemissions in 30 provinces.
I GEOS-chem model simulates air quality(PM2.5 and Ozone concentration).
I Health model quantifies health impacts.
I Economic models (CGE and valuation)monetize the health impacts, which has
been used widely for assessing China’s
climate mitigation at theI national level: [4, 5, 6], andI provincial level: [1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12].
II

The per capita expenditure in 2030 is about 185.7 in Stated Policy scenario and 158.7 thousand in High RE scenario

IThe total national mortality in 2030 is about 1314.3 in Stated Policy scenario and 1027.8 thousand in High REscenario

I

Provincial disparity of health impacts.

Figure: Scenario matrix.

Scenario
Two scenarios are constructed:
Stated Policy Reference scenario.
I The current ambitions for RE development correspond to minimum requirements for fulfilling the energyand environmental goals set for China to achieve by 2030.
I coal is still the dominant fuel.
High RE More renewables.
I Differs from the Stated Policy scenario with the amount of new wind and solar PV capacity and with thedegree of electrification in the end-use sector.
The core message is how RE development benefits air pollution control and health improvements.
Results

II

Power generation under twoscenarios.

Emissions of air pollutant
under two scenarios.

I

Cost and benefits of developing renewable energy.

Discussion and Conclusion
We quantified the physical and monetary health benefits of developing RE in China.
I In 2030, RE development could:
I

Save 286 thousand people from pemature death.
I Life value worths 1200 billion Yuan, 1.2% of GDP.
I 1.16 hour more work time, increasing ca. 0.1% of GDP.
I

I

When external cost of fossil energy is considered, RE could be cost competitive.

Acknowledgements
I

Concentration of PM2.5 andozone.

This work is supported by China Renewable Energy Center as part of China Renewable Energy Outlook 2016

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