IPAC Model(Energy Research Institute)
Jiang Kejun
September 17, 2009
Tsukuba, Japan

Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC-SGM

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
IPAC-TIMER
Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC-Emission

IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)
IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm

Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy

IPAC/AIM-Local
Region analysis
Medium/short analysis
Energy demand and supply
Technology policy

IPAC-AIM/tech

IPAC/Gains-Asia

AIM-air

IPAC-health

Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analys

Energy demand and suppl
Full range emission
Price, resource, technolog
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact
Short term forecast/energy early warning

Medium/short termanalysis
Technologyassessment
Detailed technology
flow

Climate Model
ERI, China

2050低碳情景模型分析框架
Methodology framework
Global Model
IPAC-Emission

Global energy demandand supply
Global GHG Emission
Global Target
Burden sharing
Energy import/export
Energy Price
Reduction cost

Future economic
sector detail
Energy intensive industry
Reduction cost

Energy economic model
IPAC-CGE

China energy and emission
scenarios
Energy demand by sectors
Energy supplyReduction cost

Energy technology model
IPAC-AIM/technology

Key Design Characteristics• Participating Model: IPAC-Emission• Model Type: Integrated Assessment Model (IAM),using MAGICC as its atmosphere and climate model• Participating Modelers: Jiang Kejun, Liu Qiang, MiaoRen, Hu Xiulian, Zhuang Xing, Wei Xun• Time Step: 5-25 years• Time Frame: 2005-2100• Solution Type: Dynamic Recursive• Equilibrium Type: Partial Equilibrium• Underlying Computing Framework: Fortune

Inputs and Outputs••

Key inputs– Demographics: population by region– Economic: Potential GDP, labor productivity, price and income
elasticities.
– Resources: Depletable resources by grade (e.g. fossil fuels anduranium); renewable resources by grade (e.g. wind, solar).
– Technology: Technology representations of production,transformation and use technologies.
Key outputs– Economic: GDP, World energy and agriculture prices (oil, gas,coal, wheat, rice, etc.)– Energy: Production, transformation, end use, and trade.
– Emissions: CO2 emissions by source, non-CO2 emissions (CH4,N2O, etc.), short-lived species emissions (S, BC, CO, NMVOC,etc.).

Regional Scope & Other Detail••Regional Details:– Regional Scope: Global– Number of Sub-Regions: 22– Asian Regions: China, India, Japan, Southeast Asia, South Asia,
other East Asia, Middle East
Other Details:– Energy Demand Sectors: Industry, Transportation, Buildings– Energy Supply Sectors: Fossil Energy Production, Electricity
Generation, Hydrogen Production– Other Sectors:

Key Design Characteristics• Participating Model: IPAC-SGM/IPAC-AIM/CGE• Model Type: Regional CGE• Participating Modelers: Jiang Kejun, Liu Qiang, MiaoRen, Hu Xiulian, Zhuang Xing, Wei Xun• Time Step: 5 years• Time Frame: 2005-2050• Solution Type: Dynamic Recursive• Equilibrium Type: Market Equilibrium• Underlying Computing Framework: Fortune

Inputs and Outputs••

Key inputs– Demographics: population– Economic: labor productivity, price and income elasticities.
– Resources: Depletable resources by grade (e.g. fossil fuels anduranium); renewable resources by grade (e.g. wind, solar).
– Technology: Technology representations of production,transformation and use technologies.
Key outputs– Economic: GDP, energy and products prices (oil, gas, coal, steel,etc.)– Energy: Production, transformation, end use.
– Emissions: CO2 emissions by source, non-CO2 emissions (CH4,N2O, etc.)

Regional Scope & Other Detail••

Regional Details:– Regional Scope: China– Number of Sub-Regions:– Asian Regions: China
Other Details:– Energy Demand Sectors: 34 sectors– Energy Supply Sectors: Fossil Energy Production, Electricity
Generation, Hydrogen Production, biomass– Other Sectors:

Key Design Characteristics• Participating Model: IPAC-AIM/technology• Model Type: technology least cost optimization model• Participating Modelers: Jiang Kejun, Liu Qiang, MiaoRen, Hu Xiulian, Zhuang Xing, Wei Xun• Time Step: 5 years• Time Frame: 2005-2100• Solution Type: least cost
• Equilibrium Type:• Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS

Inputs and Outputs••

Key inputs– Demographics:– Economic: output of major industrial sectors, energy price, taxes– Resources: Depletable resources; renewable resources.
– Technology: detailed technology representations of production,transformation and use technologies, with cost, energy use, row
material use, water use, labour, emission factor, for end use,conversion, and emission control technologies.
Key outputs– Economic: cost
– Energy: Production, transformation, end use.
– Emissions: CO2 emissions by source, non-CO2 emissions (CH4,N2O, etc.)

Regional Scope & Other Detail••

Regional Details:– Regional Scope: China– Number of Sub-Regions: 31 provincials + Hong Kong
– Asian Regions: China
Other Details:– Energy Demand Sectors: 38 sectors– Energy Supply Sectors: Fossil Energy Production, Electricity
Generation, Hydrogen Production, biomass, Coke making, heat
– Other Sectors:

Asian Baselines
CO2 Emission by Asian Regions
4,000,000
3,500,000Japan

Other Asia

2100

02090

Middle East

2080

500,000

2070

Indonisia

2060

1,000,000

2050

India

2040

1,500,000

2030

China

2020

2,000,000

2010

Korea

2000

2,500,000

1990

1000t‐C

3,000,000

Asian Baselines
CO2 Emission in China
4000
3500
3000

Mt‐C

2500
Baseline

2000

Policy

1500

ELC

1000
500
02000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Previous Work on Asia
-SRES
- EMF 21
- China 2050 Energy and Emission
Scenarios(2003)- China Low Carbon Society / Future(2006-2009)- China Energy Scenario 2030
- Provincial energy and emission scenarios- Energy Planning and Strategy for China- City and province energy and emission
scenarios