The 13th AIM International Workshop
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan 16-18 Feb 2008
Session VII: Impact and Land Use Modelling

THE KEY FINDINGS OF IPCC 4AR
AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
ADAPTATION / MITIGATIONSTUDIES IN INDIA____________________________________________________________________

Dr Murari Lal
Advisor & Head (EHS)
Reliance Energy Limited, NOIDA
February 18, 2008

Greenhouse Gases & Climate Change¾Since the industrial revolution we haveseen an increase in greenhouse gasemissions that has caused the global
climate to change. In the case of carbon
dioxide this is around 30% more than preindustrial levels.
¾This increase in greenhouse pollution isdue to our continued reliance on energy
technologies based on fossil fuels - alegacy of the industrial age.
¾Developing Countries are, with limited
understanding of the issue and availabilityof resources, gearing up to adapt toclimate change related risks

IPCC 4AR - KEY FINDINGS FOR ASIA
¾The Expansion of areas under severe water stress will be
one of the most pressing environmental problems in Southand Southeast Asia in the foreseeable future as the number ofpeople living under severe water stress is likely to increase
substantially in absolute terms¾Projected surface warming and shifts in rainfall in mostcountries of Asia will induce substantial declines in agricultural
productivity as a consequence of thermal stress and more
severe droughts and floods. The decline in agricultural
productivity is likely to be more pronounced in areas alreadysuffering from increasing scarcity of arable lands. The net
cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least
between 4 to 10% by the end of this century under the mostconservative climate change projections

IPCC 4AR - KEY FINDINGS FOR ASIA
¾Increased risk of extinction for many flora and fauna species
in Asia is likely as a result of the synergistic effects of climatechange and habitat fragmentation. With average temperature
increasing by 1°C the duration of wild fire season is likely togrow by 30%¾Rise in surface air temperature and decline in precipitation is
likely to reduce pasture productivity in parts of Asia by the endof this century¾Increases in endemic morbidity and mortality due todiarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods anddroughts are expected in East, South and Southeast Asia.
Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate theabundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia

IPCC 4AR - KEY FINDINGS FOR ASIA
¾Projected sea level rise is likely to result in many million
additional people being flooded each year
¾Sea water intrusion is likely to increase the habitat ofbrackish water fisheries but coastal inundation is likely todamage the aquaculture industry significantly. Changes incurrents, water temperature, salinity, strength of upwelling andmixing layer thickness in the West Pacific and North IndianOceans are expected due to climate change and sea level rise
will exacerbate the already declining fish productivity in Asia
¾Stability of wetlands including mangroves, and coral reefs
around Asia is likely to be increasingly threatened

ASIA - REDUCING THE VULNERABILITY¾Exploitation of natural resources associated with rapid
urbanization, industrialization, and economic development in mostdeveloping countries of Asia has led to increasing air and waterpollution, land degradation, and other environmental problems thatplaced enormous pressure on urban infrastructure, human wellbeing, cultural integrity, and socioeconomic settings
Development and SD Mainstreaming policies through integration ofindigenous knowledge and technological advances in national
development initiatives is likely to reduce pressure on natural
resources and improve management of environmental risks, which
is likely to enhance the adaptive capacity and coping mechanisms
in developing countries of Asia to reduce their vulnerability toclimate change

ASIA – SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS¾The inclusion of sector specific climate proofing
concept in the design and implementation ofnational development initiatives in most countries inAsia would be crucial in enhancing its climatechange adaptive capacity¾Development of improved bio-energy systems inEast, South and Southeast Asia is likely to havesignificant potential to contribute to climate change
mitigation

Climate Change Impacts Modeling Projects• Modeling studies are underway to develop confident
climate change scenarios at local and regional scale
under Indo – UK collaboration.
• A host of modeling projects are currently underway at
various institutions in India to assess the impacts ofregional climate change on food productivity andwater availability as part of its second National
Communication to UN-FCCC• Studies are also in progress to explore the impacts on
sea level rise and coastal inundation, health
implications, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, andon urban infrastructure including economic burden toIndia’s GDP

WaterResources
in IndiaSector Specific water Requirementin India
Total water need is expected to increase by ~120%

Basin Wise Projected Changes

Basin Wise
ProjectedChanges

Carbon Capture and Storage Technology¾Alternative technologies that
produce fewer greenhouse gases
have, recently, been at theforefront of the debate on climatechange.
¾Carbon capture and storage isthe newest and perhaps the mostcontroversial of those technologies
currently being investigated.

CO2 Storage Potentialconfidential

Greenhouse Gas Grave
Massive geo-sequestration projects are already underway in Australia… Is
burying hundreds of tonnes of carbon dioxide underground - a novel way
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Workers at a power plant

Renewable energy would reduce
our dependence on coal

confidential

confidential

India’s Environment & CCS
India's large reserves of coal are a major asset
to the country, accounting for 70% of it's current
production of electricity. However, excessive
use of this form of energy production—
especially without the use of strategies tomitigate its effects—will deteriorate the qualityof the country's air, land, and water resources.
The "BaU" Scenario without significant changes
in power sector policy in India will produce 775
million metric tons of CO2 emissions/year by2015 (as compared with 1,000 million metrictons/year now produced by power generation in
the entire EU). However, India will be producing
SO2, NOX, particulate emissions, and ash atthree times the current levels and ash disposal
facilities around power plants will require 1
square meter of land per person.

India’s Environment & CCS
Currently the power sector in India is on the verge offundamental and significant reforms (a more liberal systemwith market prices, competition, a greater role for the private
sector, and commercial incentives) that have profound
implications for environmental management.
It has been suggested that, in India, carbon emission fromthermal power plants can be brought down from 0.73 tonnes
per megawatt hour (MWh) of electricity generated to 0.49
tonnes per MWh through greater efficiencies.
During this time of transition, it is critical to determine how
best to take advantage of the technological innovations andopportunities it presents to protect our environment and avert
threats to public health.

Carbon Capture & Storage¾ Advanced technologies will play a critical role inachieving significant greenhouse gas reductions.
¾ The adoption of advanced technology such as carbon
capture and sequestration has to be madeeconomically attractive.
¾ The dynamic factors that influence technology
adoption and diffusion include technology, regulatory
policy and framework, business cycles, industry
structure, and corporate strategy.
¾ The regulatory and legal frameworks that may affectadoption include underground injection regulation,
relevant international and national laws, treaties andguidelines, property rights, and liability concerns.

CCS – Is there a viable Choice for India?
Should investors in new coal-based power generation pre-design their facilities soas to be carbon dioxide “capture-ready”?
Is it commercially viable to pay an upfront premium to pre-engineer the power
plant such that the investor has the option - i.e. the right, but not the obligation - toretrofit carbon dioxide capture equipment in the future?
These questions provide the investor with three choices:¾Build a pulverized coal-fired power plant today (lowest initial investment, buthighest cost to retrofit with CO2 capture).
¾Build a standard Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) powerplant¾Build an Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plant with
pre-investment to ease retrofit to CO2 capture (highest initial investment, butlowest cost to retrofit with CO2 capture).

Key Concerns about
Carbon Capture & Storage¾Doubts as to whether CO2 storage can really be made permanent.
While oil and gas fields are reasonably well understood over periods ofa few decades, the long-term performance of seals and the character ofother formations such as saline aquifers / deep sea (biology & impacts)
is much less well understood. CO2 would need to be trappedpermanently - meaning at a minimum for tens of thousands of years(long-term liability for the storage site).
¾Continuing our dependence on fossil fuels. There are many otherproblems associated with fossil fuels, from the exploitation ofdeveloping countries to health problems from air pollution, from oil
spills to the propping up of dangerous regimes. Even if carbon captureand storage helps solve the climate problem, it may delay the uptake ofrenewable energy sources that offer a more sustainable future.
¾Health effects. Slow leakage through soils and catastrophic leaks frompipelines can all affect human and ecosystem (acidification and pCO2impacts) health. Carbon dioxide in high concentrations asphyxiates.

confidentialConclusions
Reliance Energy is committed to keep the environment clean and safeguard
the society against any risks and hazards including the health impacts fromthermal power plants while ensuring that India’s development is notconstrained due to gaps between energy production and demand.
Reliance Energy understands that CCS technology is still under R&D modeand robustness of available technologies need to be ascertained before
these are introduced in practice.
India falls under moderate seismic zone and any geological storage in
Assam, Maharastra or Gujarat region poses serious risks to its population,agriculture and ecology in case of any unforeseen leakage episodes.
The application of captured CO2 in EOR or in extraction of CBM also needs
to be critically evaluated for risks and hazards it might pose; cost - benefit
analysis needs to be conducted for commercial utilization of the available
technology to contain COE affordable to public.
Reliance Energy is willing to collaborate with international technology
producers to explore application of newer and robust technology for CCS
including Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle.