Title:	  Energy	  Demand	  and	  Capacities	  in	  Economies:	  A	  case	  study	  of	  Cancun,	  Mexico	  Group	  Members:	  Hector	  Flores	  –	  Tohoku	  University	  	  Yang	  Wang	  –	  Osaka	  university	  (r	  Aisling	  Tierney	  –	  Bristol	  University	  Ray	  Edmunds	  –	  Leeds	  University	  	  Context:	  Mexico	   is	   one	   of	   the	   four	   MINT	   countries,	   along	   with	   Indonesia,	   Nigeria	   and	   Turkey.	   Mexico	   with	   its	  large	  economic	  growth	  and	  growing	  power	  demand	  faces	  enormous	  challenges	  in	  the	  development	  of	  its	  power	  system.	  With	  increasing	  imports	  form	  US	  the	  cost	  of	  power	  in	  Mexico	  is	  unsustainable	  for	  a	  developing	  country	  and	  domestic	  production	  of	  energy	  is	  required	  to	  satisfy	  growing	  demand.	  
Cancun	  was	  chosen	  as	  a	  city	  for	  analysis,	  because	  of	  its	  global	  reach	  with	  high	  tourism	  and	  attractive	  site	   for	   international	   conferences,	   for	   example	   the	   UNFCCC	   in	   2010.	   Cancun	   surrounding	   land	   is	  undeveloped	  and	  ideal	  for	  large	  scale	  energy	  generation	  technologies.	  This	  will	  benefit	  both	  the	  local	  economy	  in	  terms	  of	  jobs	  and	  energy	  resilience	  in	  addition	  to	  encouraging	  Mexico’s	  independence	  from	  reliance	  on	  imports.	  	  Social	  and	  Environmental	  Considerations:	  Dramatic	   social	   and	   economic	   inequalities	   exist	   in	   Cancun.	   The	   lack	   of	   fundamental	   social	   systems	  (clean	   running	   water,	   electricity,	   housing,	   and	   transport)	   compared	   to	   the	   wasteful	   luxuries	   of	  internationally-­‐funded	  hotel	  chains	  lead	  to	  a	  sense	  of	  social	  injustice	  for	  the	  local	  Mayan	  population.	  
Migrant	  workers	  travel	  from	  across	  the	  Yucatan	  peninsula	  to	  supply	  the	  cheap	  unskilled	  workforce	  required	   to	   support	   the	   tourism	   industry,	   but	   this	   leads	   to	   community	   fragmentation	   and	   a	  destruction	  of	  traditional	  cultural	  systems.	  	  The	  environment	  suffers	  due	  to	  the	  waste	  created	  by	  the	  tourist	  industry.	  Over	  450	  tons	  of	  waste	  travels	  to	  landfills	  every	  day	  and	  is	  frequently	  burned	  as	  part	  of	  the	  disposal	  process.	  Hotel	  sewage	  is	  either	  stored	  in	  septic	  tanks	  and	  illegally	  dumped	  in	  the	  local	  lagoon	  or	  water	  systems,	  or	  is	  directly	  poured	  untreated	  into	  the	  drainage	  systems.	  Sewage	  purification	  industry	  is	  limited	  in	  Cancun.	  	  Objectives:	  1)	  	  Highlight	  the	  requirements	  for	  a	  sustainable	  energy	  system	  for	  a	  mint	  country	  taking	  as	  a	  case	  study	  a	  city	  in	  Mexico.	  
2)	  Provide	  an	  example	  for	  wholes	  system	  approach	  to	  system	  design	  for	  all	  MINT	  countries.	  
3)	   Assess	   the	   technical,	   economic,	   environmental	   and	   social	   aspects	   of	   energy	   system	   design	   in	   a	  MINT	  country.	  
Data	  Collection	  and	  Analysis:	  •GIS	  was	  used	  to	  understand	  the	  wind,	  wave,	  geothermal	  and	  solar	  resource	  availability	  •The	  regional	  demand	  was	  approximated	  by	  using	  national	  and	  provincial	  energy	  statistics	  •An	  energy	  mix	  was	  decided	  based	  on	  the	  resource	  availability,	  efficiency	  of	  technologies	  and	  system	  compatibility	  •Levelised	  costs	  of	  new	  technologies	  	  were	  compared	  to	  existing	  cost	  of	  the	  current	  fuel	  mix	  •The	   market	   framework	   and	   current	   reforms	   were	   assessed	   to	   ensure	   that	   Mexico	   and	   the	  Cancun	   region	   provided	   an	   attractive	   commercial	   opportunity	   for	   both	   national	   and	  international	  investors	  	  •	  Conclusions	  and	  Recommendations	  •Fantastic	  opportunity	  for	  development	  in	  Mexico	  •Great	  resource	  and	  market	  potential	  •Cancun	  an	  opportunity	  to	  provide	  example	  of	  decarbonised	  city	  in	  a	  MINT	  country.	  	  This	  was	  pre-­‐feasibility	  study.	  A	  further	  feasibility	  study	  is	  required,	  this	  will	  take	  into	  consideration	  the	  following	  oDetailed	  cost	  and	  resource	  analysis	  oDetailed	  analysis	  of	  the	  Mexican	  electricity	  and	  energy	  markets	  oForecasting	  of	  future	  load	  requirements	  in	  the	  Cancun	  region	  oSystem	  adequacy	  analysis	  Energy	  demands	  and	  capacity	  in	  developing	  economies:	  A	  case	  study	  in	  Cancun,	  Mexico
Group	  B	  A.	  Tierney	  (Bristol),	  R.	  Edmunds	  (Leeds),	  Y.	  Wang	  (Osaka)	  and	  H.	  
F.	  V.	  Flores	  (Tohoku)	  RENKEI	  Summer	  School	  in	  Tohoku	  Univeristy	  11-­‐Sept-­‐2014

Regional	  problems	  Social 	  	  • Demographics	  • Labour,	  migraVon,	  community	  – Culture,	  tradiVon	  • Housing	  • (In)equality	  Environmental	  • Land	  use	  (interior)	  • Waste,	  polluVon	  Emerging	  economies	  Brazil,	  Russia,	  India,	  China	  and	  South	  Africa	  Mexico,	  Indonesia,	  Nigeria	  and	  Turkey	  	  United	  Mexican	  States	  Area:	  1,972,550	  km2	  (14th)	  PopulaVon:	  118,	  395,	  054	  (2013,	  11th)	  GDP:	  $1.927	  trillion	  (2014	  esVmate,	  10th)	  Cancun	  Found:	  1970	  LocaVon:	  Yucatan	  Peninsula,south-­‐east	  coast	  of	  Mexico	  State:	  Quintana	  Roo	  Climate:	  Subtropical	  climate,27º	  C	  -­‐	  35º	  C,sunny	  days	  throughout	  most	  of	  the	  year	  	  PopulaVon	  722,	  800	  (2010).	  
UN’s	  Cancun	  climate	  conference	  was	  held	  in	  November	  2010	  	  and	  “Cancun	  Agreements”	  Interna;onal	  Visitors	  in	  Cancun	  (million)	  5	  4	  3	  2	  1	  0	  Cancun	  Interna;onal	  Airport	  	  	  	  	  Second	  largest	  in	  Mexico	  	  	  	  	  15,	  962,	  162	  passengers	  in	  2013

Local	  residence:	  0.72	  million
2011	  2012	  2013	  Technical	  Economics	  • Imported	  diesel	  and	  oil	  >200USD/MWh	  • New	  Low	  Carbon	  Technologies	  – Solar	  PV:100-­‐120USD/MWh	  – Onshore	  Wind:	  80-­‐100USD/MWh	  – Waste	  IncineraVon:	  90	  –	  100USD/MWh	  – Anaerobic	  digesVon:	  100	  –	  180USD/MWh	  – Solar	  collectors	  • Enabling	  Technologies	  – Grid	  reinforcement:	  8-­‐10USD/MWh	  – Storage:	  further	  analysis	  required	  PoliVcal	  Support	  	  • Mexicans	  pay	  72%	  more	  for	  electricity	  than	  americans	  • Reforming	  the	  energy	  market	  to	  allow	  greater	  private	  investment	  • Target	  of	  35%	  renewable	  energy	  by	  2024	  • Plans	  to	  take	  wind	  to	  20GW+	  capacity	  by	  2024….and	  solar	  to	  8GW	  by	  2014