AIM modeling activity
FY2012-FY2013
The 18th AIM International Workshop
December 15, 2012
NIES,Tsukuba, Japan

Yuzuru Matsuoka

Table of Contents
1. Models in AIM model family operating
FY2012
2. An Introduction of new members in AIM
model family in FY2012 -2013
3. Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As) andsupporting tools
4. Model applications in FY2012 and FY2013
5. Brochures published/updated in 2012
2AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Models in AIM model family operating FY2012• AIM/CGE(Global/National): One/multi-regional CGE model.
Integration platform with which element models are soft-linkedaccording to analytical objects. Global and National scales. Twoversions are now in operational stage; MPSGE version and MCP
version• AIM/Enduse(Global/National): One or multi-regional, multisectoral bottom-up type energy end-use model. Integration platform ofenergy service’s generation processes, energy technology
development, and LCS policies. Global, national, and local scales.

• Extended snapshot tool (ExSS): A tool for integrating

future economic, industrial, social and energy policies, using social
accounting matrices, trade matrices, energy balance tables, energy
technologies, regional energy resources information. Now, covers all
most all sectors on GHG emissions. Single/Multi-regional accounting
type tool.
3AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Models in AIM model family operating FY2012(continued)• Back-casting model/Tool (BCM/BCT): A model for

designing roadmaps towards low carbon societies. Dynamic
optimization type model.

• AFOLU models: Two types are now developed.

AFOLU-A: A new model for AFOLU sector’s activity, which describes
the driving forces of AFOLU sectors with agriculture and forestry
policies, food, feed, bio-energy, industrial activities, and land-use
balances.
AFOLU-B: AFOLU sector’s GHG emission reduction model withbottom-up technology couplings.

• Element models: Models of specific mechanisms of social-economic processes and energy service demand, such as macroeconomy, dynamic demography, building dynamics, traffic demand,
material stocks and flow, agriculture forestry and land-use activity.

4AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

An Introduction of new members in AIM modelfamily in FY2012 -2013

 AFOLU-A model

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-useActivity model LCP-Action Tools

Tools for designing and managing Low Carbon
Policy and connecting models’ output withpolicy actions

5AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

AFOLU-A model

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Activity model For projection of activity levels of AFOLU sectors and GHG

emissions from these sectors
 Simple accounting type tool, based on land use accounting
table, food balance table and biomass balance table Agriculture and forestry activities are consistent with socioeconomic variables from other models, i.e. ExSS, CGE
 Considering production, consumption, import and export offorestry and agriculture products including bio-energy crops
 GAMS linear/non-linear program Developed by K.Gomi and Y.Matsuoka
 Now, applying to national and regional studies of Indonesia
6

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

AFOLU-A model

Its Modules & variables
Socio-economic
module• Population• Industrial output• Transport demand• Population• Urbanization• Industrial output• Population

Energymodule• Biofueldemand &supply• Renewableenergy• Agro waste
generation• Fuel wood
demand• Food & feeddemand &supply

Agriculture
module• Agriculturalresidue• Crop production• Head of livestock• Biofuel production

Bioenergy
module7

Waste module• Timber production• Degraded forest area
• Deforestation area
• Protected area

• Fuel cropproduction

Landusemodule

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013• Wood products
demand & supply

Forestrymodule

AFOLU-B model
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use sectors’
Bottom-up type emission reduction modelTechnology based bottom-up type model, which consist of Agriculture/
Livestock module and FOLU module

Calculates GHG emission mitigation potentials and combinations ofmitigation technologies in AFOLU sectors, which minimize the net financial
costs under arbitrary given conditions.

Two types of optimization scheme, 1) Time sequential optimization, 2) Overthe entire period optimization

Requires information on 1) GHG emission reduction technologies, 2) Futurescenarios of productions of agriculture, livestock and forestry and land-use
change, 3) Scenarios of prices of commodities and energy, 4) Policy
scenarios on GHG emission tax, energy tax rate, subsidies etc.

Developed by T.Hasegawa and Y.Matsuoka

Applied to national studies of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh
8AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Coupling of ExSS, AFOLU-A and AFOLU-B
ExSS

AFOLU-A• Demographic and Labor ForceAccounting• Economic, Industrial and Trade
Accounting Matrix• Transport demand and Supply• Energy demand and Supply• Energy saving and emission reductiontechnologies• Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities• Biomass energy production• Bio-waste accounting• Landuse accounting

Low Carbon
PolicyActions

Low Carbon
PolicyActions

AFOLU-B

GHG emission projection andreduction potential• Emission reduction technologies• Energy saving technologies in AFOLU• Emission from LULC

GHG emissions, Energy consumption
and Solid Waste disposal inResidential, Commercial, Industrial,Transportation, and Power sectors
9Low Carbon
PolicyActions
GHG emission projection andreduction potential

GHG emissions, Biowaste
generation from AFOLU sectors

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Coupling of ExSS, AFOLU-A and AFOLU-B

As an integrated design and assessment tool for Low Carbon Policies
AFOLU-AExSS• Demographic and Labor Force
Accounting• Economic, Industrial and Trade
Accounting Matrix• Transport demand and Supply• Energy demand and Supply• Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities• Biomass energy production• Bio-waste accounting• Landuse accounting

Enduse (Abridged version)• Emission reduction technologies in NonAFOLU sectors• Energy saving technologies in non AFOLUsectors

AFOLU-B• Emission reduction technologies• Energy saving technologies in AFOLU• Emission from LULC

Low Carbon Policy Actions
GHG emission projection and reduction potential
10

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Up to now, we proposed many “LowCarbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)”For example,

11

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

“Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)”and related LCD framework, such as NAMA

LowCarbon
PolicyActions(LCP-As)

UNEP Riso Centre, 2011, A primer on framing NAMA in Developing Countries
12AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As) LCP-A is a deliverable-oriented grouping ofelementally programs thatorganizes and totals thescope of the LCP.
 Overall structure of LCP-As
is shown with its Work
Breakdown Structure (LCPAction Breakdown Structure).
It is a graphical format ofhierarchically displaying
deliverable measures andprojects, which are further
broken down into moredetailed deliverables.
13An example of LCP-ABS from IMLCSBPAIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Hierarchy of LCPAs system
Quantifiedobjectives
LCPAs
Sub-actions
Measures

Programs
140 LCP targets, such as 50% cut in carbon emission
intensity, creation of 100,000 new job by 2030

1.0 Policy Actions needed to achieve theQuantified objectives of the LCP
1.1.1 Subactions/Measures are detailed
breakdown and interpretation of actions intostrategies with a clearer implementation
dimension
1.1.1.1 Programs – Specific activities,
deliverables, from which resource requirements,budget, implementation agencies and duration
may be identified/estimatedAIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

LCP-Action Tools

Tools for designing and managing LCP-As LCP-A tools are forConnecting outputs of models with LCP-As quantitatively
Monitoring and management of LCP-As progress They are composed of

・ LCP Policy/Action Reference Database
・ LCP-A Breakdown Structures (LCP-ABS, formerly called WBS)
・ LCP-A Specification Cards (LCP-ASPEC)・ LCP-A Design Structure Matrix (LCP-ADSM)
・ Tool for attributing LCP Quantified targets to each Action
program (Action program’s RIPPLE effect) (LCP-ARIPPLE)・ LCP-A Backcasting tool (LCP-ABCT)15

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

LCP-Action Specification Cards (LCP-ASPEC)
Dictionary of a LCP-Action Breakdown StructureDescribes the Scope statement,
Workflow, Timeline ofimplementation, Required resource,Costing, Implementation organization,
Stakeholders, SWOT*, Current
status (where you are / how much isdone /not done) of theActions/Projects

In order to discuss/analyze theDetailed design, Progress management,
Sharing and communicating of therelevant information among researchgroups, implementation agencies andstockholders

An example from IMLCSBP case
* SWOT: Strengths,Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats16
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

LCP-Action Design Structure Matrix (LCP-ADSM) LCP-ADSM shows relations and interactions among programs inLCP-ABS and crucial parameters/variables/output measure which
influence quantified targets of LCPAs, with compact, easily
scalable, and intuitively readable representation
 LCP-ADSM is a DSM*1, which has a structure of MDM*2 withfour domains*3 , i.e. Player/Actor, Program/Action, Crucial
parameter, and Quantified target*1 DSM (Design Structure Matrix) is a network modeling tool to represent the elements comprising a system andtheir interactions*2 MDM(Multidomain Matrix) is an extension of DSM modeling in which two or more DSM models in different
domains are represented simultaneously. Each single-domain DSM is on the diagonal of the MDM, and the offdiagonal blocks are DMMs
*3 Domain is a realm of the elements comprising a DSM model of a system (e.g., product, process, organization, etc.).
*4 DMM (Domain Mapping Matrix) is a non-square matrix mapping the domain of one DSM to the domain ofanother DSM.
Terminology defined in Eppinger, D. and Browning, T., Design Structure Matrix Methods and Applications, MIT Press, 201217

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Actor-Program DMM
Program/Actions: Programs containing Low Carbon
Policy actions
Program-Measure DMM
Performance
Monitoringof LCP

Crucial parameters/Performance measures: Index formeasuring the output of programs directly
connecting with LCP quantified targets
Measure-Target DMM

Objectives
includingco-benefitsof LCP
18

Quantified targets: Quantified targets of LCP, not only
GHG emission reductions, but also including
relevant sustainable indexes
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Target-Actor Impact DMM

Actors/Players: Central and local governments, private
sectors, communities, citizens,International organizations, NPOs

Measure-Actor Impact
DMM

Four domains in LCP-ADSM

An example of LCP-ADSM•Direction of information is from column to row•Elements of matrix denote functional types of relation between column elements androw elements

Severaldozens tohundreds
parameters

Program/Action
Crucial Parameter/
Performance measure

Severalhundredprograms

Actor/
Stackholder

Local government
Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources
Ministry of Industry
Department of Energy
Chamber of Commerse
Citizen

ALG
AMOE
AMOI
ADOE
ACOC
ACTZ

Integrated Green Transportation

PT

Green Industry
Low Carbon Urban GovernanceGreen Building & Construction
Green Energy System & Renewable Energy
Low Carbon LifestyleCommunity Engagement & Consensus Building
Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design
Smart Growth
Green and Blue Infrastructure & Rural Resources
Sustainable Waste Management
Green and Clean Environment

PIPUPBPRPLPCPDPSPG
PWPE

Residential sector (Energy efficiency improvement of appliance) p1_RES_EEIResidential sector (Energy service demand reduction - Air
p2_RES_ESVGaconditioning)
Residential sector (Energy service demand reduction - Others)
p3_RES_ESVGb
Residential sector (Renewable energy)
p4_RES_RE
Commercial sector (Energy efficiency improvement of appliance) p5_COM_EEI
Commercial sector (Energy service demand reduction - Air
p6_COM_ESVGa
conditioning)
Commercial sector (Energy service demand reduction - Others) p7_COM_ESVGb
Commercial sector (Renewable energy)
p8_COM_RE
Industrial sector (Energy efficiency improvement of appliance)
p9_IND_EEIPassenger transport sector (Energy efficiency improvement of by
p10_PTS_EEIa
technology improvement)
Passenger transport sector (Energy efficiency improvement byTDM)
GHG emission reduction

Quantified Energy saving
targets Solid waste reduction

19

Measure-Actor
Impact DMM

ActorProgram
DMM

QTS

QTE

QTG

p11_ PTS_ EEIb

Qu a n ti fi e dta rg e ts

p10_ PTS_ EEIa

p9_ IND_ EEI

p8_ COM _ RE

p7_ COM _ ESV

p6_ COM _ ESV

p5_ COM _ EEI

p4_ RES_ RE

p3_ RES_ ESVG

p2_ RES_ ESVG

PE

PW

PG

PS

PD

PC

PLPRPB

PUPIPT

p1_ RES_ EEI

Crucial Parameter/
Performance measure

Program/Action

ACTZ

ACOC

ADOE

AM OI

AM OE

ALG

Actor/Stackholder

TargetActor
ImpactDMM

Planning stage 2

Planning stage 1

Program DSM
Casuality from parameter toprogram is described in Program
DSM

Program-Measure
DMM

p11_PTS_EEIb

Dependency among parameters
are described in program DSM

QTG
QTE
QTS

Measure-Target DMM

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Mainly describedin ExSS, CGE,
and enduse
modelLCP-ARIPPLE

A tool for quantification of causality in planning stage 1 :To calculate contribution of LCP Action program’s ripple effects to quantified targets

A tool for calculating contributions of LCP-A programs to the objectives ofLCP-A, quantitatively, used coupling with ExSS/Enduse/CGE
 Implemented with GAMS/MIP and Excel Main input : LCP-ASPEC, LCP-ABS, LCP-ADSM
 Output : Attributed portions of Quantified targets/performance measures toeach program and actor, directly and indirectly

LCP Actions
Contributionof Program A

Contributionof Program A

Attribution link
Cause-and-effect link

ARIPPLES

Program A

Increasing of people’s
preference of Technology T1

Program B

Establishment of subsidy ofTechnology T2

ExSSAIM/enduse

・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・
Contributionof Program A20

Program ...

・・・・・・・・

AIM/CGE

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

Quantifiedtargetsof LCPAs

Collaboration framework of Tools
for concrete design of LCP-Actions
Technologies’ database for AIM/enduse

Policy/ActionReference
Database

LCP-ABSWork Breakdown
Structure of LCP
Actions

LCP-ADSM
Design Structure
Matrix of LCP
Actions

ARIPPLEA tool for calculating
contribution andattribution of/to LCPA program’s ripple
effects

AIM/enduse
AIM/CGEby Action andProgram

BCT
Backcasting Tool for
designing LCP Action
roadmap

OUTPUT of Calculation
Time-serial resource and costallocation for implementing LCP-A

21

ExSS+AFOLU
by technologies andcountermeasure

LCP-ASPEC
Dictionary of aLCP-A Breakdown
Structure

OUTPUTS of Calculation
At planning stage : Expected GHG
emission reductions and costs attributed toeach Action and Technology
At monitoring stage : Performancemeasures attributed to each Action andTechnology

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

An example of attribution of GHG emission
reduction to LCP-Actions, from IMLCSBPGreen Economy: 59%
Green Community: 21%
Green Environment: 20%
EEI in Residential sector694

CDR in residential sector

319

EEI in Commercial sector

1,012

CDR in Commercial sector

441

EEI in Industry sector

1,085

EEI (vehicle) in Passenger transport…
EEI (TDM) in Passenger transport…

587
188

Modal shift in Passenger transport…

996

Shorter trip distance in Passenger…

1,276

EEI in Freight transport sector

1,632

Modal shift in Freight transport sector

155

EEI in power sector

2,905

Renewables

156
0

1,000

2,000
ktCO2

Contribution of Emission
reduction by sector/countermeasure
22

3,000

4,000

Contributions of Emission
reduction by action
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

As for the preparing LCP-AWS in Asian countries, Mr. Hibino,
MHIR are requesting each country’s AIM mitigation teams
to submit LCP-database and AWS, by Feb. 15, 2013
CHNNational

IND
National

THANational

THAregion

IDNNationalMYSNational

Bophal

LCP-database◎◎◎◎◎◎◎AWS/Buildings◎◎◎◎◎◎◎AWS/Transportation◎◎◎◎◎◎◎AWS/Industrial◎◎

◎◎◎◎

◎

AWS/Energy◎◎◎◎◎◎◎AWS/Agriculture△△△△◎◎△AWS/Forestry△△△△◎◎△23◎：Mandatory, △：VoluntaryModel applications conducted in FY2012ExSSChinaIndia

CGE
National studies
NIES (MPSGE), paper
KU (MCP), paper
IIM (MPSGE)KU (MCP), paper

ThailandTU (ExSS), brochure, paper

Indonesia
Vietnam

ITB+KU(ExSS) brochure
KU (ExSS), brochure, paper

Bangladesh
Malaysia

KU (ExSS), brochure,paper
UTM+KU (ExSS including Solid KU (MCP), FY2012
waste, Industry sectors),
preparing brochure
Regional studies
UTM+KU (ExSS),
brochure,paper, blueprint
UTM+KU(ExSS),
brochure,paper
GIEC+KU(ExSS), preparing
brochure
SNU+KU(ExSS), preparing
brochure

Iskandar, Malaysia
Putrajaya, MalaysiaGuangzhou, China
Kyonggi Province, Korea

24

AFOLU-B

TU(MPSGE)
KU (MCP),FY2012
KU (MCP), FY2012
KU (MCP), paper

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

NIES+KU
NIES+KU, brochure,paper
NIES+KU
NIES+KU

Model applications scheduled in FY2012-13
Country/Region

ExSS, AFOLU-A, AFOLU-B,
LCP-A tools

CGE

AIM/enduse

National studies
China

India

MPSGE extended to multi-provincial
regions (NIES ),MCP version coupled with endusetechnology model (KU)
MCP version coupled with endusetechnology model (KU)
MCP version coupled with endusetechnology model (KU)

ThailandExSS coupled with AFOLU-A (KU,TU)

Indonesia

ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B,
MCP version coupled with enduse
multi-provincial regions (KU, IPB, ITB) technology model (KU)

Vietnam

AFOLU-A coupled with AFOLU-B (KU, MCP version coupled with enduse
ISPONRE)
technology model (KU)

Bangladesh

ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B(KU)
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B(KU,UTM)

Malaysia
Cambodia

MCP version coupled with endusetechnology model (KU)

ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B(KU)
MCP version coupled with endusetechnology model (KU)

Taiwan, Philippines,
Korea
Nepal

Regional studies
Iskandar, Malaysia(not determined),
Thailand25

ExSS coupled with LCP-A tools (KU,UTM)(KMUT)AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

AIM/enduse (MIHR,TU)

AIM/enduse (MIHR, ITB)

Brochures published/updated in 2012
Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world
2007/05

2010/10

2011/09,2012/11

26

2009/10

2009/10

2011/10

2009/08,2012/11

2009/11

2009/11

2009/10,2012/02

2010/02,2012/09

under preparation

under preparation

AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013

2011/03

2010/10,2012/10

on going