The 13th AIM International Workshop
16-18, February 2007
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

GHG reductions potentials andmitigation costs in world regions
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tatsuya Hanaoka, Yuko Kanamori, Mikiko Kainuma
Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka, Osamu Akashi, Tomoko Hasegawa
Mizuho Information and Research Institute
Go Hibino, Kazuya Fujiwara

Development of Enduse[Global]
presentaiton outline
1. Overview of Global Enduse model
2. Issues & Progress
3. Results in world regions by using theEnduse[Global] Database
GHG mitigation potentials and estimate marginal
abatement costs in world regions.
- Comparison of region-wise & sector-wise
reduction potentials and reduction costs

Overview of Enduse[Global]
Type : Regional Bottom-up optimization model with detail technology
selection framework
Components:
Regional energy enduse module coupled with
- Regional energy resource module- International energy, basic materials balance module- Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module◆

Target Regions : 23 geographical world regions◆Time Horizon : 2000 – 2050◆

Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6(expansion of GHGs to BC, OC, SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, etc)◆

Target Sectors : multiple sectors(Power generation / Industry / Residential / Commercial /Transport / Agriculture / F-gas emissions sector )Overview of Enduse[Global]
Trade cost DB

Mr. Akashi

Dr.Hanaoka,
Ms.Hasegawa

Trade matrix DB

Global economic model
Goods/service
export/import

Energy resource price

Energy priceGoods/service price

GDP，POP
Macro-Economic model
EnergydemandNon-CO2 Trend model

Goods/service
production

Dr. Kanamori

Goods/service
production

2F-gas emission

Non-Agriculture(CH /N O)

Agriculture

Transportation

Residential/ Commercial

IndustryElectricity price,Emission factor

4Energy service demand

Mr. Fujiwara
Mr. Hibino

Energy conversion

Enduse modelResource modelResource mining
Resource priceResource reserve& cost DB

Non-CO2 drivers
DBTechnology option
DB23regions

Progress and Issues
zzzOverall– Updated data of driving forces and used the latest international
statistical data.
– Developed database of technology options
Progresses and developments– Expanded target service: Cement service in industry sector (preliminarydone)– Developed global economic model (Trade Balance Module of Energy,Materials and Food) and regional macro-economic model (Regional
macro-economy and energy service demand module) and estimatedsteel production in 23 regions (preliminary done)– Developed global agriculture model (preliminary done)– Re-arranging (and adjusting) IEA Energy Balance in residential andcommercial sector (On-going)– Considering the new approach how to estimate service demands inresidential and commercial sector (On-going)– Expanding target GHGs such as BC, OC SO2 etc. (On-going)
and so on
Preliminary analysis– Estimated reduction potentials in 21 regions as the preliminary version

Results of reduction potentials
by using the Enduse[Global] Databasez Target year : 2020z Discount rate:¾ High discount rate case:- Industry, Transport, Residential & Commertial :33%/year- Power generation: 10%/year- Agriculture, MSW, Fgas: 5％/year¾ Low discount rate case: 5%/year
z Definition of reduction potential
Reduction amounts are estimated by comparing thelevel of standard technologies diffused in the baseyear with the introduction of new mitigation
technologies in the target year, target region andtarget sector.

Geographical coverage
Focusing on major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions in detail
RegionCodeAnnex1)Region

CodeAnnex1)

1) Japan
2) China
3) India
4) Indonesia5) Korea6) Thailand
7) Other South-east
Asia8) Other South Asia
9) Middle East
10) Australia11) New Zealand12) Canada
13) USAJPN
CHN
IND
IDN
KOR
THA
XSE

AⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ

CAN
USA
XE15

AⅠ
AⅠ
AⅠ

XE10

AⅠ

XSA
XME
AUS
NZL
CAN
USA

NAⅠ
NAⅠ
AⅠ
AⅠ
AⅠ
AⅠ

12) Canada
13) USA14) EU-15 in Western
Europe15) EU-10 in Eastern
Europe16) Russia17) Argentine18) Brazil19) Mexico20) Other Latin
America21) South Africa22) Other Africa
23) Rest of the World

RUS
ARG
BRZ
MEX
XLM

AⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ

SAF
XAF
XRW

NAⅠ
NAⅠ
NAⅠ

Note1) AⅠ = AnnexⅠ nations，NAⅠ= non-AnnexⅠ nations

Target gas and sectors
GHG

CO2

SectorPowergeneration

Services
Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant,
other powers generation (wind, biomass, PV)

Industry

Iron and steel, Cement

Transportation

Other industries （Boiler, motor etc）
Passenger vehicle, truck，bus，ship, aircraft，passenger train，freight train (except for pipelinetransport and international transport)

Residential& Commercial

Cooling, heating, hot-water，cooking，lighting，refrigerator, TV (only residential)

Agriculture

livestock rumination, manure management, paddy
field,MSW

Municipal solid waste
By-product of HCFC-22, refrigerant，aerosol, foams，solvent, etching，aluminum production, magnesium
production. Insulation gas, others.

CH4 N2OHFCPFC
SF6Fgasemissions

CH4

Fuel
production

Coal production and transport, Natural gas production
and transport

Assumption of future service demands
SectorActivities

Data sourcesPOPGDP

UN World Population Prospects （2006)
SRES B2

Powergeneration

Electricity
generation (GWh)

IEA Energy Balances (2007)
IEA World Energy Outlook (2007)

Industry(Steel)

Crude steel
production (Mt)

International Iron and Steel Institute (2002),
The Institute of Energy Economics (2007)
U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) and so on

Transportation

Transport volume(vehicle/km,ton/km)

IEA Energy Balance (2007)， U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) ,Several Japan and international statistics，WBCSD（2004）
and so on

Residential &commercial

EnergyIEA Energy Balance (2007)， U.S. DOE SAGE (2003) , World
consumption (toe) Development Indicators (2007)，World Marketing Data andStatistics (2002),UN habitat (2007) and so on

Agriculture

Livestock (head),
cultivation area(ha)FAOSTAT (2005)，The International Food Policy ResearchInstitute (2002)，Food and Agriculture Organization （2002)
and so on

Fgas

Consumption

UNEP (2002)，AFEAR (2007)，IPCC/TEAP (2005)，
WMO/UNEP(1999)，several papers and so on

Global MAC curves- Annex I and Non Annex I Comparison with LOW & HIGH discount rate case
200

Marginal abatement cost
(US$/t-CO2 eq)

150
100
50
00-50-100

1000

2000

3000

4000

50006000 7000 8000 9000
Non-Annex I (High DR)
Annex I (High DR)
Non-Annex I (Low DR)
Annex I (Low DR)

GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq)¾

Estimated mitigations are 8.7~11.3 GtCO2 eq in Global, 2.6~3.8 GtCO2 eq in
Annex I and 6.0~7.5 GtCO2 eq in Non Annex I under the case of 100 US$/t-CO2
marginal abatement cost in 2020

Sector-wise reduction potentials- Annex I and Non Annex I Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)
4% 1%

8%

8%

Annex I5%Power generation

5%
10%
5%
Total
11.3 GtCO2 eq

21%

5%
1%
1%
3%

Industry
Residential& Commercial
Transport
AgricultureMSWF-gas

Non Annex I¾23%

large reduction potentials in power generation and industry sectors are evaluated
due to the use of low energy-efficient technologies particularly in Non-Annex I in
the current situation, and these sectors account for 56 % of world total reduction
potentials．

Regional MAC curves- Annex I nations Low discount rate case
USA200Marginal abatement cost
(US$/t-CO2 eq)

RUS
XE15150JPN
XE10100

AUS
50CAN
NZL

00200

400 600

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-50-100
GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq)

Annex-Ⅰ(2020年, GHGs)

Regional MAC curves- Non Annex I nations Low discount rate case
CHN
IND
XAF
XLM
XME
IDN
BRA
XSE
XSA
KOR
ARG
THA
XRW

Marginal abatement cost
(US$/t-CO2 eq)

200
150
100
50
00500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

-50-100
GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq)

Non-Annex-Ⅰ(2020年, GHGs)

Region-wise reduction potentials
GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO 2 eq)

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)
6000
50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2
5000

20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2
0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO24000X <= 0 US$/t-CO2

3000
2000
1000

¾

XRW

XAF

XLM

BRA

ARG

RUS

XE10

XE15

USA

CAN

NZL

AUS

XME

XSA

XSE

THA

KOR

IDN

IND

CHN

JPN

0China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there arelarge reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials inthe world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

Sector & Region-wise reduction
potentials under 100 US$/tCO2
Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)
F-gas (HFC,PFC,SF6)
MSW(CH4)
Agriculture (CH4&N2O)
Power generation (CO2)Transportation (CO2)Residential & Commercial (CO2)
Industry (CO2)

3000
under 100 US$/t-CO2

GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO2 eq)

3500

2500
2000
1500
1000
500

¾XRW

XAF

XLM

BRA

ARG

RUS

XE10

XE15

USA

CAN

NZL

AUS

XME

XSA

XSE

THA

KOR

IDN

IND

CHN

JPN

0Major sectors which have large reduction potentials vary differently dependingon the socio-economic characteristics in each region. There are much larger
potentials of cost-effective measures in developing countries．

Note¾¾¾Minimum reduction

Maximum reduction

Powergeneration

Industry

Residential Transport Agriculture&Commercial

AR4WG3This
study

AR4WG3This
study

AR4WG3This
study

AR4WG3This
study

AR4WG3This
study

AR4WG3876543210This
study

under 100 US$/tCO2 eq

GHG Reduction potential (GtCO2 eq)

Comparison with the IPCC AR4MSW

This study shows results in 2020, but results in IPCC AR4 are in 2030．
Results in IPCC AR4 are based on SRES B2 and IEA World Energy Outlook(2004). Theresults of this study are based on SRES B2, UN mid estimation and IEA World EnergyOutlook(2007).
The amount of potentials in IPCC AR4 are larger than this study, not only because IPCC
AR4 focuses on different year and so estimated activities’ levels are different, but also
because coverage of mitigation options are wider than this study.

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

0Power generation
Industry
Residential &Commercial
Transport
Agriculture
MSW

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)This study (Non Annex I)

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)This study (Non Annex I)

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)This study (Non Annex I)

Minimum reduction

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)This study (Non Annex I)

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)

5This study (Non Annex I)

AR4WG3 (OECD)

This study (Annex I)

AR4WG3 (Non OECD/EIT)This study (Non Annex I)相違
under 100 US$/tCO2 eq

GHG Reduction potential (GtCO2 eq)

Comparison with the IPCC AR4Maximum reduction

4321AIM/Enduse[Global]

Key modeling issue 3

Key modeling issue 2

Key modeling issue 1

Macro-economy module

Trade module•Econometric productionside model coupled withdetailed module of energy
and material service demand
generation mechanism• Oil, Gas, Coal, Energy biomass• Iron and Steel,• Chemical products• Wood and wood products• Crop and diary products

Modules of material
demand generation andits reduction mechanism• Iron and Steel,• Chemical products• Wood and wood products• Crop and diary products

Key modeling issue 4
Database

Trades of Energy, BMs
and FoodsDatabase
World Tradetransportation cost and tradebarrier

World energy andBM price2re 3gion

Trade Balance Module ofEnergy, Materials and Food

Production and extraction
amount of energy

Dynamism among
Electrification, household fuelchoice and poverty

Energydemand andSupply

Key modeling issue 5

Regional macro-economy and energy
service demand module

Energy service demand andenergy priceRegional technology
bottom-up module

Energy transformation
sectorModeling of residential
energy transition

Regional energy
production and supply
moduleFinal energy demand

F gasesemission
sectorNon-agriculture
CH4・N2Oemission sector

agriculture
sectorTransport
sectorResidentialandcommercial
sectorIndustrial
sectorEnergy price andemission coefficient

Resources-Cost
database

Technology
Database

Regional reality ofmodeling• Spatial migration ofemission activity• Building and household
dynamics
Key modeling issue 6

Modeling of ancillary
benefit andneighboring policy
effects• Regional air quality
management• Other environmental policy

Relation among three global models
Next Steps
Global GHGs
emission paths

Impact [Policy]
Year 2000-2200

With a certain burdenshare scheme

Common database•Social andmacroeconomy•Energy supply
and demand

Reconciliation
between monetary
term and physicalterm

Global [CGE]Year 2000-2100

Regional macroeconomic frames
World energy price
Reconciliation among
energy stocks,
efficiency, energy
services, and energy
consumption

Aggregation of energy
efficiency, substitution
coefficients, emission
coefficients

Aggregation of energy
efficiency, substitution
coefficients, emission
coefficients

Enduse [Global]
Year 2000-2050

All in soft linkage