22th AIM International Workshop＠NIES

Modelling for low carbon lifestylein JapanNational Institute for Environmental
Studies (NIES)
Yuko Kanamori
10th December, 2016

Japan’s GHG reduction target• INDC (2030 target) 26％ reduction

Unit: Million t-CO2

SectorCO2 emission
Left: 2030 (Right):2013

Reduction
percentage

Household122 (201)

39.3%

Service168 (279)

39.8%

Industry401 (429)

6.5%

Transport

163 (225)

27.2%

Energy conversion

73

27.7%(101)• Target towards 2050

80％ reduction

1

INDC: 40% reduction by 2030Assumption• Energy consumption per capita is constant (2013 level)• Without technology improvement• Electricity CO2 emission factor will be 0.37kg CO2/kWh (0.551kg CO2/kWh)
2030
2030/2013

2013

CO2Per capita emission
Emission factoremission （kgCO2/person）
Coal
00%
000%
Kerosene
92%
21,14515%
23,082181
11%0.0678 tCO2/GJ
LPG
92%
12,1809%
13,296104
7%0.059 tCO2/GJ
City gas
92%
19,49714%
21,283167
11%0.0499 tCO2/GJ
Electricity
62%
88,28062% 143,508
1127
71%
0.551 kgCO2/kWh
Heat
92%
610%
67
10%
0.057 tCO2/GJ
Total
70%
141,264100%
201,346
1582 100%※Electricity emission factor in 2030 is 0.37kgCO2/kWh
Unit of CO2 emission: kt-CO2※Total includes error adjustment
CO2 emission

・Because of population reduction (-8.5%) and emission factor decrease (-33%), 30% of CO2
emission can be reduced.
・2030 target will be achieved with 85% level of CO2 emission per capita.
2

Reduction target in 2050 - 80% reduction Assumption is same as 2030’s case
• Several electricity emission factor
2013 levelCoalKerosene
LPG
City gasElectricity
HeatTotal
2050/2013

Incl. CCS or otheradvanced technology

0.370.3
0.2
0.1
0.011
kgCO2/kWh kgCO2/kWh kgCO2/kWh kgCO2/kWh kgCO2/kWh
00000
17,602
17,602
17,602
17,602
17,602
10,13910,13910,13910,13910,13916,230
16,230
16,230
16,230
16,23073,48759,58439,723
19,861
2,185
51
51
51
51
51
117,592
103,689
83,82863,967
46,290
58%
51%
42%
32%
23%

・Because of population reduction (-24%) and emission factor decrease (-33%～-98%), 40％～77% of CO2 emission can be reduced.
・2050 target will be achieved with 34%-87% level of CO2 emission per capita.

3

Energy service demand model in household sector
Input：Energy service demand in base year, related socio-economic variables
Output：Energy service
Household by typeHousehold byprefecture, building
type, household type

Floor area by prefecture
and prefecture, building
type

Active time athome by sex, age
group

Floor area by
prefecture, building
type, household type

Total active time at
homeCDD, HDD

Hot water supply
per capita

Rate of eating insidehome by household
type

Population by age
and sex

Others energy
consumption

Energy service demand
HeatingCoolingHot watersupplyCookingLighting

OthersLighting

OthersDevice（Efficiency, Share）

Energy consumption
Heating

Cooling

Hot water
supplyCooking4

Scenarios
Socio-economic scenario• BaU: Per capita energy service demand is as same as 2010’slevel• Base: Per capita energy service demand vary based on socialand economic trends• LCS: Per capita energy service demand will be reduced by
LC lifestyles

Technology scenario• Tech: Energy efficiency of devices will be improved.
• Electrification of devices is not considered.
Socio economic scenario
BaU
Technology scenario

BaseBaseLCS-BaULCS

TechBaU+Tech Bae+Tech LCS+Tech5

Data (1)dataDescription

Population

National Institute of population and social security research,
Population projection by sex, age group Middle caseNumber ofhousehold

National Institute of population and social security research(-2040) , and household projection(2040-2050) by household type
(Matsuhashi et al )Housing(Floor area)

Statistic Bureau, Housing and land survey (2008,2013)
Average floor area by prefecture, household type and buildingtypeTime use

NHK broadcasting culture research institute, Time use survey bysex, age group (2010)

Rate of eating at
home

Statistic Bureau, Family income and expenditure survey (2010),
Rate of eating at home by household type
Rate of eating at home＝(total food expenditure-expenditure for homemeal replacement and dining-out）/ total food expenditure

Hot water supply
per capita

Result of questionnaire survey about energy consumption inhousehold sector.

6

Data (2)dataDescription

CDD/HDD

Base: CDD 10% increase HDD 10% decrease
LCS: Base + 10% decrease ( lifestyle change)

Others energy
consumption

Multiple regression analysis.
Explained variable: GDP per capita, average household size.

GDP per capita

Almost SSP2

Other energy saving LCS: As for “Others energy consumption per capita”, energy saving
lifestylelifestyle (reduce unnecessary energy consumption etc)

7

Energy consumption of "others"[1010kcal]“Others” energy consumption
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Statistics

Estimation
8

Energy service demand model in household sector
Input：Energy service demand in base year, related socio-economic variables
Output：Energy service
Household by typeHousehold byprefecture, building
type, household type

Floor area by prefecture
and prefecture, building
type

Active time athome by sex, age
group

Floor area byprefecture, building
type, household type

Total active time at
homeCDD, HDD

Hot water supply
per capita

Rate of eating insidehome by household
type

Population by age
and sex

Others energy
consumption percapita

Energy service demand
Heating

Cooling

Hot water
supplyCookingLighting

OthersLighting

OthersDevice（Efficiency, Share）

Energy consumption
HeatingCooling

Hot water
supplyCooking9Energy efficiency of device (1)Energy service
type

EnergyAnnual improvement rateof energy devices

Heating

Electricity

1.5％

Gas

No change

Kerosene

No change

Cooling

Electricity

1.5％

Hot water
supplyElectricity

0.5％

CookingLighting/Others

Gas

0.25％

Kerosene

No change

Coal

No change

Heat

No change

Electricity

0.25％

Gas

0.25％

Coal

No change

Electricity

1％

Device energy consumption
reduction with annualimprovement rate
■1.5%
2030
2050

26％ reduction
45％ reduction

■1.0％
2030
2050

18％ reduction
33％ reduction

■0.5%
2030
2050

9.5％ reduction
18％ reduction■0.25％
2030
2050

5％ reduction
10％ reduction

10Energy efficiency of device(2)11Refrigerator

0.9
0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

1

Gas water heater

0.98

Air conditioner

0.9

0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88

02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Average energy efficiency of sales andstock are different.
・Main electric device: 8 years gap
・Water heater and cooking stove: 10
years gap

0.86
0.84
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Green line: 2030’s stock average
Red line: 2050’s stock average
11Result: Energy consumption (Tentative)
110%
100%

90%80%70%

2030
78%(Base)～
99%(LCS+Tech)

60%
50%

2050
58%(Base)～
87%(LCS+Tech)2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BaU
Base+Tech

EnergyBaU+Tech
consumption

LCS

Base
LCS+Tech

LCS+Tech: 22% reduction compared with 2010 level in 2030
42% reduction compared with 2010 level in 2050
12Result: CO2 emission in2030
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

100%

Electricity CO2 emission factor : 0.37kg CO2/kWh (2030)

87%

87%
78%

75%
66%

80%
66%

LCS+Tech: 34% reduction compared with 2010 level in 2030
Device electrification will lead 40% reduction in household sector in2030
13For future research
In this research• Regional distribution• Household type difference• Population structure change (Aging society)• Technology change (sales base)14

Technology improvement vs lifestylechange (demand decrease)16%

Low income household increase
High income household decrease

14%
12%

10%
8%
6%

4%

Device replacement demand
will be lower …?

2%

H12

H17

H22

2000万円以上

1500～2000万円

1200～1500万円

1100～1200万円

1000～1100万円

900～1000万円

800～900万円

700～800万円

600～700万円

500～600万円

400～500万円

300～400万円

200～300万円

100～200万円

100万円未満0%Future aged household will
replace devices appropriately…?

H27

Distribution of household income level
Electricity consumption per household(1) Develop narrative scenario byhousehold type, income leveland eco-conscious action level(2) Set time use, device possession
How is it possible that ecoconscious household will increase?

Nuclearhousehold

Aged couple
household

Young single
household

2030
Min

1795 kWh

1618 kWh

967 kWh

2030
Max7534 kWh7325 kWh

2277 kWh20104399 kWh5363 kWh

2368 kWh15

Thank you for your attention!
kanamori@nies.go.jp

Outline of the analysis• Base year: 2010
• Target year: 2030
• 13 lifestyle type• 3 household type• 2 income level• 2 environmental
awareness

Table
Middle-aged

Economicwellbeing
HighEnvironmental
awareness
Low

nuclear family

HighHigh

Low

Low

Low

HighHigh

Low

HighHigh

Low

Low

Low

High

Household

Elderly couple■ Assumption ■✓Each lifestyle type in the same
household type live in the same
type home.
✓Family member composition inthe same household type is same.

13 lifestyle type

Elderly caring for elderly
Young,HighLowliving alone

HighHighLow

LowLowHighSummary of future setting
by household type
✓ Device possession✓ Energy efficiency of device✓ Time spent at home
✓ Use of energy-saving technique
CaseAppliances,devices

Energyefficiency ofdevices

Time spent athome

Use of energysaving
techniques

Miidle-High-income, environmentally unconcerned

Many

Good

Somewhat long

None

aged

High-income, environmentally concernedIntermediate

Very good

Short

A little

Intermediate

BadLongNoneFewGoodShort

A lot

Economically comfortable, environmentally unconcerned

ManyGood

Somewhat longNone

Economically comfortable, environmentally concernedIntermediate

Very good

Short

A little

Economically uncomfortable, environmentally unconcernedIntermediate

BadLong

None

Economically uncomfortable, environmentally concerned

FewGoodShort

A lot

Elderly caring for elderlyIntermediate

Good

Very long

Intermediate

High-income, environmentally unconcerned

ManyGood

Somewhat long

None

High-income, environmentally concernedIntermediate

Very good

Short

A little

Low-income, environmentally unconcernedIntermediate

Bad

Very long

None

Low-income, environmentally concerned

FewGoodShort

A lot

nuclear Low-income, environmentally unconcernedfamily Low-income, environmentally concerned

ElderlycoupleYoung,
livingalone