Summary: Assessment of Japan’s INDC using AIM/Enduse [Japan]
Ken Oshiro, Mizuho Information & Research InstituteThe 21st AIM International Workshop, Tsukuba, November 14th, 2015
Introduction
The Government of Japan submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC on July 17th, which is to reduce GHG emissions in2030 by 26.0% with respect to the 2013 level [1]. This study assesses the emissions pathways using
AIM/Enduse [Japan], especially focusing on the following three key aspects; 1) Feasibility and necessary effort
to meet the INDC target, 2) Robustness of INDC in terms of the uncertainty of nuclear power, and 3)
Consistency between INDC and 2050 target to reduce GHG emission by 2050.
Methodology
In this study, Multi-region AIM/Enduse [Japan] is used to analyze mid- to long-term transformation of energy
systems and emission pathways in Japan [2]. In order to assess the above mentioned key aspects, the following
different scenarios are prepared.
INDC Scenario: Implicit carbon prices are implemented to meet the INDC target by 2030, and arestrengthened thereafter toward the 80% reduction target by 2050.
Enhanced Action Scenario: Compared to INDC Scenario, higher carbon prices are implemented by 2030
to the level of around a half of 2050.
Low-Nuclear Scenario: All nuclear power plants operate no more than 40 years, by contrast to otherscenarios considering the extension to 60 years for the several plants.
Results and Discussions
1) Feasibility and necessary effort to meet the INDC target
Japan’s INDC target appeared feasible as long as ambitious energy efficiency improvement and promotionof renewable energies are achieved. The implicit carbon price is estimated to rise to around 187 USD/tCO2 in 2030 to meet the INDC target.
2) Robustness of INDC in terms of the uncertainty of nuclear power
Given reduced dependency on nuclear power, the INDC target is still feasible with the alternative lowcarbon options such as renewable energies and gasification. These additional efforts result the rise incarbon price to around 236 USD/t-CO2 in 2030. In addition, this scenario entails the challenge associatedwith energy security issue.
3) Consistency between INDC and 2050 target to reduce GHG emission by 2050
INDC-80% pathway by 2050 appears technically feasible with energy efficiency and low-carbon energies
including CCS. The enhanced actions in early stages, mainly derived from strengthening renewables andgasification, could reduce the effort required in the period of 2030-2050.
This study suggests that energy efficiency improvement and promotion of renewable energies are vital to meet
INDC and long-term targets. In addition, transforming energy systems in early stage on track to the long-term
decarbonization is required as well as meeting the INDC target in 2030.
Acknowledgements
This study is conducted by Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, Dr. Toshihiko Masui and Ken Oshiro, and provided to MILES
Project convened by EU and IDDRI. The Synthesis report is available online [3].
References[1] Government of Japan. (2015). Submission of Japan's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC).
Retrieved from http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Japan/1/20150717_JapaJ's%20INDC.pdf.
[2] Oshiro, K., & Masui, T. (2015). Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission
reduction in Japan. Energy Policy, 81, 215-225. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.010[3] Spencer, T., Pierfederici, R. et al. (2015). Beyond the numbers: understanding the transformation induced
by INDCs (Vol. Study N°05/15). Paris: IDDRI - MILES Project Consortium. http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Beyond-the-numbers-Understanding-the-transformation-induced-by-INDCs