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The 15th Asian pacific Integrated Model(AIM) Workshop

2009. 4. 1

Background
Outline of this study
Result and data analysis
Future Plan11

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I. Background2

GHG related Circumstances
Constraints for participating in current scheme32

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Basic act on low carbon green growth Mandate government to set concrete target for GHG emission reduction
 Contain articles to foster financing for green technology R&D and green investment
 Mandate the government to foster and support green economy, green industry andthe transformation of conventional industry Provide for mandatory reporting of GHG emission for business and cap& trade system
4II. Outline of this study

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Methodology & data
Objectives
Forecasting the GHG emission and assessment of potential GHG reduction in Korea

Target sector
SectorResidential

Area
Cooling, Heating, Lighting , Cooking, Electric appliance, etc

Commercial & Public Cooling, Heating, Lighting, Cooking, Power, Office equipment , etc
Transportation
Industrial
Power generation

Land(car, bus, taxi, jeep, truck, motorcycle), Water, Air, RailIron&Steel, Petro chemical, Cement, etc
Nuclear, Coal, LNG, Petroleum, Hydro, Renewable, Heat , etc

Year : standard year (2005), target year(2020, 2030, 2050)
Methods
Residential, Commercial & Public, Transportation : AIM(Asia-pacific Integrated Model)
Industrial : statistical analysis

6Methodology & data
Introduced technology and change of life styleTotaltechnology

Advanced
technology

CoolingHeatingLighting
Cooking
Electric appliance4115633

2
522
1033
118

Cooling1055

Heating

1764521681652
25210120

13836
11131200023000000

SectorResidentialArea

Commercial & Lighting
PublicCookingfacilities
Office equipment
Land (car, bus, taxi, jeep, truck, motorcycle)
Transportation Water
AirRailIron & SteelIndustrial
Petro chemicalCement
Powergeneration
Total

Life style

220

215

9349

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Methodology & data
Main Socio economic parameter

2008

2010

2020

2030

Oil price($/bbl)

98

84

70

82

Population(mill.)

48.6

48.9

49.3

48.6

4.2

4.75

3.66

2.24

GDP growth rate(%)

(Oil price) EIA(Energy Information Agency)(Population) Statistics Korea(GDP growth) Korea Development Institute

8III. Result and data analysis

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BAU result
annual growth rate of emission will be decreased
CO2 intensity will be decreased
GHG emission of the per capita will be increased constantly

813

Total GHG emissions(mill.CO2
CO2 intensity(tonCO2/mill.won)
The per capita GHG emissions(ton)

37%

594

99%

16.4
12.3

281
0.76

6.95
0.73

1990

0.54

2005

2020

10

Scenario Simulations

900

mill. ton CO2813

800
700
600

23%

594

32

130%

34%

500
400
300
200
100
0BAUSC12005

Residential

SC2SC32020

ComercialTransport

Industrial

Powerindustry processWaste

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Scenario Setting

Scenario1

Selection standard ofcountermeasures

Potential GHG
Reduction from BAU△23%
187 mill.ton
reduction from BAU

단위 : 백만톤

cost ininternational standard Reshape transportation systemthewith low carbon scheme
green process in industry
 Enlarge the portion of new and renewable energy and nuclear energy
 Innovate high efficient Expand supply of green car(electric car, fuel cell vehicle etc.)

Maximum reduction intechnology and policy

2.41 mill.ton
reduction from BAU

 partly introduction of CCS(Carbon capture and storage)
 Introduce change of life style

 Maximum expand supply of△34%3

 supply high efficiency facilities

technology and policy

△30%

2

 enlarge green home and building• Introducing cost effective• Reduction

reduction countermeasure(2 and 3 scenario include countermeasures of former scenario )Maximum reduction intechnology and policy
and change of life style

2.76 mill.ton
reduction from BAU

 Maximum enlarge

green carthe distribution of high efficiency appliances Reinforce introduction of CCS
 Maximum change of life style

12Scenario Simulations
Transportation sectormill.CO2ton

20.4%
reductionfrom BAU

120

10025%

Change of Life style

12%

Improving energy efficiencies

63%

Technology innovation & Change ofTravel demand

80

60

40

20BAU
2005

BAUSC32020

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Scenario Simulations

mill.CO2ton
120

25%

100

Change of Life style
Idling stop
Proper air pressureLightly drive
Smooth start
Accelerator operation kindly
Economic speed
Reduce mileage
Car sharing
no driving on a day of the week system
Expand the use of bicycle
Telecommuting

80

60

40

20BAUBAU

2005

SC32020

15/33

14

Scenario Simulations

mill.CO2ton
12012%

100Improving energy efficiencies
SC 38017㎞/ℓ through 2015
Passenger
22.4㎞/ℓ through 2025(Europe standacarrd)

60

40

20BAU
2005

BAUSC32020

Truck

Improving 50% until 2050

Train

Improving 30% until 2050

Ship

Improving 30% until 2050

FightGrowing 1.2% a year

Bus

Improving 50% until 2050

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Scenario Simulations

mill.CO2ton
120

63%

100

Technology innovation & Change ofTravel demand

80

Modal shift to public transportation service
Widespread use of green car(electric, fuel cell, hybrid plug in hybrid )

60

40
2020
20BAUBAU2005

SC32020BAU

SC2SC3Electric car

1%1%10%Fuel cell car

2%2%2%

Plug in hybrid

5%5%

7%

Hybrid

5%

10%

10%

16

Future plan

• Establish reduction target by sector and implementation target action plans (2010)• Perform follow-up actions to establish detailed reduction amount by sector• Establish/ manage short and midterm reduction target.

• Build up the foundation for developing model of assessing potential GHG reduction• Support to establish detailed reduction amount by sector• Propose the detailed countermeasures and action plan

• Suggest the methodology for development of LCSs vision• Provide the guideline for archiving the low carbon society scenario
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