Introduction of Indonesian LCSand Future Collaborative
Works
Rizaldi Boer
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management,
Bogor Agriculture University

Indonesia’s National GHG Inventory 2000
Waste
28.3%

Without LUCF
Source: MoE, 2009

With LUCF

Energy50.5%

Agriculture
13.6%

Peat Fire
13%

Industry
7.7%

SectorGg CO2e

Energy280,938

Industry

42,815Agriculture
Land Use Change and Forestry(excl. peat fire)
Peat Fire

75,420649,254

Waste

157,328

Total without LUCF
Total with LUCF (incl. peat fire)

172,000

535,730
1,356,984

Waste
11%

Energy20%

Industry3%Agriculture
6%

Land Use
ChangeandForestry
47%

LULUCF and Peat Fire is thelargest source of Emission(60%)

Emission trend of All Sectors (2000-2004)
3,000,000

2,500,000

Land Use Change andForestry (excl. peat fire)
Peat Fire (High inter annual variability)

Emissions (Gg CO2)2,000,000

Waste (growth 1.1% per yr)

1,500,000

Agriculture (growth 1% per yr)
Industry (growth 2.5% per yr)
1,000,000

Energy (growth 5.6% per year)

500,000

02000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Indonesian Current and Future GHG
Emission by Sector

Source: MoE, 2009

Projection of GHG EmissionsSource: MoE, 2009

EMISSION REDUCTIONTARGET

Designing Sustainable Low-Carbon

GHG emissions per capita

International (2005), Ton C/capita-Japan, UK, Germany 2.5-US 5.5; Canada 4.2-India 0.3; China 0,6-World (average) 1.0 – 1.1

DevelopedCountries

High Energy
Locked-in Type
Development
With High
Damage on
Economy andNatural System

LeapfrogDeveloping development
Countries
Indonesia
0.46 ton C/capita

Low Carbon World
Target (2050): 0,5
ton C/capita

Time2005
Emission per capita from energy. Source: Asian LCS Study (2009)

Projection of Per Capita
Emission under BAU
In 2020 rate ofemission for energy is
1.04 ton C/cap andfor all sector is about
3.05 ton C/cap

In 2005 rate ofemission for energy is
0.46 ton C/cap andfor all sector is about
2.18 ton C/cap

National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA):
Non-Binding Commitment of GoI
2020

26% ~ 0.767 Gt CO2
41% ~ 1.210 Gt CO2

26%
Rate of emissions

41%

TimeEmission Reduction
target from BAU

Projection of Per Capita Emission under
BAU and Mitigation Scenarios in 2020

Level of 2020 emission
relative to 2000 Level

Does it really makesense for developingcountries?
~70%~15%~5%~20%

CP1~75%

With the two non-binding Emission reduction targets (26% and 41%),level of Indonesian emission in 2020 will be about 60% and 28% above
2000 emission level respectively.

Research Needs for SLCD/GG
Without
scarifying
socio-economic
development
target (Socioeconomicscenarios)

Future Emission
under BAU
Unilateral actions

Targeted Emission
Reduction-1
Supported actions

Targeted Emission
Reduction-2
Current Emission

Behavior changes

Carbon Credited
actions
Targeted Emission
Reduction-3

Policy/regulatory
Analysis

Acceleration & upscaling the use ofavailable less emission
technologiesTransfer of readily lessemission technologies
Development of Less
Emission Technologies
domestically/transfer ofadvanced technologies(e.g. CCS)

What is the main limitation of
the emission projection studies?
Projections of emission from sectors were developed
independent of each other Assumptions used in making the projection for some
sectors were sometime inconsistent E.g. in projecting emission under BAU scenarios inagriculture sector (palm oil plantation) is not consistent
with forestry sector policy which will be no more forest
land released for the plantation until all land in non-forest
area optimally used
 Integrated modeling is required to capture interaction andinterconnection between sectors’ emission, e.g. how certain
policy in a sector will affect emission of other sectorsNeed for Integrated Modeling
External factors
CO2 emission from
Industry sector

CO2 emission fromEnergy & sector

CO2 emission fromtransportation sector

Indonesia socioeconomic scenarios

CO2 emission from
Agriculture sector

Behaviorchanges

Acceleration & upscaling the use of lessemission technologies

CO2 emission from
LULUCF sector

CO2 emission from
Waste sector
Transfer of readily
less emissiontechnologies

Development of Less
Emission Technologies
domestically/transfer ofadvanced technologies