Integrated Assessment
Model for APEIS

Toshihiko MASUINational Institute for Environmental Studies
The 11th AIM International Workshop
Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES
February 20th, 2006

Topics of this presentation¾ AIM/APEIS training workshop (Nov. 2006)¾ Application of IAM (1)– air pollution and health impact
Conducted by Dr. Wan Yue¾ Application of IAM (2)– introduction of water
Conducted by Mr. Onoduka (TIT)¾ Another application will be introduced insession of "Low Carbon Society"
AIM, NIES

Training workshop for APEIS¾ Understanding features of CGE models– role, strength, shortcomings, limitation, ...
¾ Learning programming¾ Understanding simulation¾ Date: November 2006
¾ Place: NIES
¾ Participants: China, India, Japan (Kyoto U.

& TIT), Taiwan, Thailand
AIM, NIES

Training workshop for APEIS

AIM, NIES

Application of IAM(1) Air pollution and health impact assessment
This work was completed by Dr. Wan Yue.
Estimation of economic impacts suffered from air pollution by using
AIM components.
Health impact
Economic system
response
Top-downmodel(AIM/MaterialChna)
Energy service
demandEnergy price
Emissionconstraints
Bottom-upmodel(AIM/LocalChina)
Emission distribution

AIM, NIES

Laborloss
Medicalexpenditure

Air pollution
induced healtheffects

Concentrationresponse
relationshipMetaanalysis

Pattern ofrural energy
consumption

Rural population
exposed to ambient
air pollution

Urban population
exposed to ambient
air pollution

Emissions byLPS and AS

Atmosphericpollution
concentration modelAmbient
air pollution
concentration

Application of IAM(1) Air pollution and health impact assessment

AIM, NIES

BaU

BaU

PolicyPolicyGeographical distribution of PM10
emissions across China in 2020 (unit: ton)

Ambient concentration of PM10in urban areas of China in 2020

Application of IAM
2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

‰

2002

2000

(1) Air pollution and health impact assessment

0-2-4-6-8-10
-12

mean
low erupper-14

Health impacts on national economy (reference case)AIM, NIES

Application of IAM(1) Air pollution and health impact assessment
Introductionof taxIntroductionof emission cap

Introduction of cap& clean energy

Satisfaction ofenvironmental
constraints
takes costs.
But the appropriate
countermeasures
can mitigate costs.

GDP loss by air pollution reduction and mitigation by policy
AIM, NIES

Application of IAM(2) introduction of water
RainfallAgriculturallandwater
supplyecon.
sectors

sewageRiverendowmentfrom previous
periodUnderground waterCountry A

Conceptual water flow
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endowment
to next
periodApplication of IAM(2) introduction of waterSocial Account Matrix
V matrix
act X com
U matrix
com X act

Source of water
activity & environment
Xwater type

Sink of water
water typeX
activity & environment

Expanding to water account• Expansion of economic account to water account• Application to macro economy in Thailand based on many assumptions
AIM, NIES

Application of IAM

Tri. Baht(2) introduction of water
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2000

2005

1%/year4%/year4%/year + substitution (1%)*

2010

2015

2%/year6%/yearPreliminary result: Agricultural production in Thailand(without climate change impacts)*: 1% of rainfall water to agricultural land is substituted to water in river➜ Source/sink connected to river are affected, when water in river is not sufficient.
AIM, NIES

Features of IAM model for APEIS
IAM for APEIS canintroduce the environment as a physical unit.
¾ assess direct/Indirect effects of environmental
burdens or countermeasures to protect theenvironment.
¾ link to other bottom-up type models and SDB(Strategic DataBase), and then effectiveness of
specific technology or policy can be assessed.
¾AIM, NIES