AIM/China: Progress in 2005

ERI AIM Project teamPrepared for 11th AIM Workshop
Feb.19-20, 2005, NIES, Tsukuba

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean Coal technologyAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIS

Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030

• Including most recent energy data(up to 2004 and 2005)• National plan(Economy growth, energy conservation plan,renewable energy plan)• Circulating Economy Modeling(Process linkage within
AIM/Enduse model)• Results to be finishedApplication of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Urban Transport Development Study•Ultra-Large City: Beijing, Shanghai, Chong Qing
•Large rich city: Hangzhou•Large Poor city: Taiyuan(?), Yin chuan, Xining•Small city: Lang Fang

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Framework of IPAC
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC-SGM

Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
IPAC-TIMER
Medium/long-term analysis

Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

IPAC-Emission

Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analys

Energy demand and suppl
Full range emission
Price, resource, technolog
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact

IPAC/Tech

IPAC/AIM-Local
Region analysis
Medium/short analysisEnergy demand and supply
Technology policy

AIM-air

IPAC-AIM/techMedium/short termanalysis
Technologyassessment
Detailed technology
flow

IPAC-health

ERI, China

Establishment of fiscal and taxation policies
for energy sustainable development in China

Yuan/L

1.Vehicle fueltax (change feeto tax andvehicle fuel tax)

Vehicle fuel tax
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.502006
2010
2020
2030

Gasoline Diesel

汽油 Gasoline
柴油 Diesel
GTL

GTL

Alcoholic fuelBio-diesel

2006

2010

2020

2030

1.1(费改税, change fee to tax)
1(费改税, change fee to tax)

2.4

3.64.6

2.1

2.7

3.4

2.1

2.7

3.4

111111醇类燃料 Alcohol fuel 1
生物柴油 Bio-diesel

Establishment of fiscal and taxation policies
for energy sustainable development in China (Cont.)

2. Energy tax (based on heat value andencourage clean energy)

2010

2020

2030

Coal

05080120

石油

Oil

05070100

天然气 Natural Gas

0506080

Carbon Tax

能源税，IPAC
Energy tax
140
120
100
80
60402002006
2010
2020
2030

250
200
150
10050

其Ot 他
en he 可再er rgy re 生能newa 源ble

水Hy 电dro气
天NG 然

石Oi 油l0煤Co 炭
al元／吨标煤, Yuan/tce

煤炭元／吨碳, Yuan/tC

2006

3. Carbon tax

2005

2010

2020

2030

Establishment of fiscal and taxation policies
for energy sustainable development in China (Cont.)
4. End-use energy price
石油制品 Oil product天然气 Natural Gas
煤炭 Coal电力 Electricity醇类染料 Alcoholic Fuel
生物柴油 Bio-diesel

Yuan/Ton
3
Yuan/mYuan/Ton
Yuan/KWh
Yuan/Ton
Yuan/Ton

2005
2822
1.61
495
0.45
2900
5300

2010
3116
1.6
496
0.46
2900
4300

2020
3912
1.67
500
0.47
2900
3900

2030
4430
1.76
489
0.47
2900
3800

5. Utilization of tax revenue
In modeling:
70% goes to government revenue, as common expense for government
30% goes to expense for energy conservation and new energy development

Indicators for policy assessment

••
•••
•
••
•
•
•

Cost and benefit
Energy security
Rural energy supply
Poverty
Production safety
Emission mitigation
Water and land damage
Institutional arrangement
Economy promotion
Employment
Multiple development objectives

Establishment of fiscal and taxation policies
for energy sustainable development in China (Cont.)

6.

Tax neutrality:
Individual income tax: reduced by 5%
Corporation income tax: reduced by 3%

7.

Price elasticity:
Mainly used for the analysis for vehicle fuel tax with considerationof impact of price increase on people’s traveling. Because of deficit ofdetailed research on it, the result of other countries’s study isadopted, with a value of –0.25

Modeling analysis result: Baseline scenario

中国一次能源需求
Primary energy demand in China

中国终端能源需求
Final Energy Demand in China
3000

5000

2000
1000
02000

2010

2020

2030

Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
N.gas
Crude Oil
Coal

2500

HeatElectricity
N.gas
Oil Prod.
Coal2000
Mtce

3000

1500
100050002000

2010

Year

2500
2000
1500
1000

2010

2020
Year

2030

2030

Rural
Urban
Transport
ServiceIndustry
Agriculture

CO2排放量CO2 Emission

25亿吨碳, 108 tC

3000

50002000

2020
Year

中国终端分部门能源需求
Final energy demand by sector in China

Mtce

Mtce

4000

20
15
10502000

2010

2020
年份, Year2030

Modeling analysis result: Baseline scenario (Cont.)

CH4 排放量CH4 Emission

N2O 排放量N2O Emission
1百万吨N, MTon

百万吨CH4, MTon

60
50
4030
20

1
1
1000

100002000

2010

2020

2030

2000

2010

年份, Year

30

350

百万吨, MTon

百万吨, MTon

2030

SO2 排放量SO2 Emission

TSP排放量TSP Emission

400

2020
年份

300
250
200
150

2520151010050

5020002010

2020
年份, Year

2030

02000

2010

2020
年份, Year2030

Modeling analysis result: Energy tax scenario

0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
2000

2005

2010

2015
2020
年份, Year节能率 %, Reduction Rate损失率 %, Loss Rate

能源税对中国GDP的影响
Effect of energy tax on GDP of China

2025

2030

能源税对能源需求的影响
Effect of energy tax on energy demand
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%0%
2000

2005

2010
2015
年份，Year

2020

2025

2030

Modeling analysis result: Carbon tax scenario

0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

年份, Year碳税对能源需求的影响
Effect of carbon tax on energy demand节能率 %, Reduction rate

损失率 %, Loss Rate碳税对GDP的影响
Effect of carbon tax on GDP

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%0%
2000

2005

2010

2015
年份, Year

2020

2025

2030

碳税对CO2排放的影响
Effect of carbon tax on CO2 emission
30%
25%
20%
15%10%5%0%
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

年份, Year
采用机动车燃料税的能源效果
Energy effect of fuel tax
700
百万吨标煤, Mtce

减排率 %, Reduction rate

Modeling analysis result: Fuel tax scenario

间接效果Indirecteffect
直接效果Directeffect

600
500
400
300200

基准情景
Baseline
scenario

10002000

2010

2020
年份, Year2030

Primary conclusion
According to the primary analysis result, the energy tax has an apparent effecton controlling energy demand. Compared with baseline scenario, in energy tax
scenario, energy demand in 2020 will decrease by 12.7%, saving about 400
million tce energy and having an apparent environmental effectDue to the energy price increase that restrains the economy development andthe decrease of energy industry production, the effect on GDP is negative. The
loss rate of GDP is 0.38% (62.2 billion Yuan) and GDP increase rate has a littledrop, from 5.6% to 5.579%.

Primary conclusion (Cont.)
If considering the social cost induced by the fast development of energy system,
mainly including energy security cost, cost resulting from the enlargement ofinternational market, environmental cost, etc, the adoption of energy tax will
have more apparent impact. Specifically, the recent discussion about adoptionof fuel tax give a good opportunity to introduce energy tax. Compared with thecurrent plan of changing fee to tax, adoption of energy tax is much easier.
Adoption of fuel tax will not only have a directive effect on energy demandthrough the change of public selection of vehicle, but also in-directive effectthrough the increase of traveling cost due to fuel tax and corresponding
decrease of traveling demandFurther work
• Completion and improvement of model: taxation mode,
effect of import and export, effect of tax on consumption
behavior, further analysis of IPAC-SGM model• Use of tax renevue• Price elasticity• Parameters / scenario development

Further work (Cont.)• Further studying on reasonable tax rate. On the basis of current
modeling research, make an analysis on the effects of all tax rates
and propose an applicable rate
• Further studying on problems encountered by foreign countries inestablishing fiscal and tax policies• Studying on the implementation mechanism of energy-related
fiscal and taxation policies (energy tax, fuel tax and carbon tax) inChina

Co-Benefit: next
• Work further with policy makers, quickly• How much we can pay for that
• Government budget• Link with local development: an integrated framework

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Framework of IPAC
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC-SGM

Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
IPAC-TIMER
Medium/long-term analysis

Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

IPAC-Emission

Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analys

Energy demand and suppl
Full range emission
Price, resource, technolog
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact

IPAC/Tech

IPAC/AIM-Local
Region analysis
Medium/short analysis
Energy demand and supply
Technology policy

AIM-air

IPAC-AIM/techMedium/short termanalysis
Technologyassessment
Detailed technology
flow

IPAC-health

ERI, China

10000tce

Primary Energy Demand in Hainan Province
1400
1200
1000
800
600
40020002003

Wind
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil Prod.
Coal2005
Year2010

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Framework of IPAC
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC-SGM

Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
IPAC-TIMER
Medium/long-term analysis

Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

IPAC-Emission

Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analys

Energy demand and suppl
Full range emissionPrice, resource, technolog
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact

IPAC/Tech

IPAC/AIM-Local
Region analysis
Medium/short analysis
Energy demand and supply
Technology policy

AIM-air

IPAC-AIM/techMedium/short termanalysis
Technologyassessment
Detailed technology
flow

IPAC-health

ERI, China

Regions in the modelR e g i o n a l 2 R e g i o n a l 2R e g i o n a l R e g i o n a l 1 _ C o dG I S _ C o d e
1 BJ
BEIJING BJ
12 HD
HAIDIAN HD
233 CYCHAOYANGCY
4 FT
FENGTAI FT
455 SJS
SHIJINGSSJS
1616 CWCHONGWENCW
17 XW
XUANWU XW
171818 DC
DONGCHENDC
19 XC
XICHENG XC
1966 MTG
MENTOUGOMTG
77 TZ
TONGZHOUTZ
88 CP
CHANGPINCP
99 FS
FANGSHANFS
10 SY
SHUNYI SY
1011 MYMIYUNMY1112 HRHUAIROU HR
1213 YQYANQING YQ
1314 DXDAXING DX
1415 PG
PINGGU PG
158districts
in urban

Suburb

Select of LPS

Base one data survey, 480 boilers with capacity
between 10t/h - 670t/h；in which 112 for hot water, 360 forheating

分区域L P S 个数Distributionof LPS by county

Distributionof LPS with Capacity
不同热力区段的LPS分布
5%

16%

1205%

104

100

828060534032 35322074%

27 24
13 13 106

平谷大兴

延庆

怀柔*密云顺义

房山

昌平门头沟

通州

丰台

10~20

石景山

20~65

朝阳

65~220海淀

220~67001138

LPS in the model: example
LPS_NumbLPS_CodeLPS_Name
GIS_CodeRegion2_Operation_ LongitudeLatitudeStack_He
289 BJCP01 beijingshouchuangluntai-com
7 CP
0.32 116.3058 39.0389
75290 BJCP02 beijingshouchuangluntai-com
7 CP
0.32 116.3058 39.0389
75291 BJCP03 beijingshouchuangluntai-com
7 CP
0.32 116.3058 39.0389
75
292 BJCP04 beijingbishuiwuye-company
7 CP
1 116.2914 39.0503
50293 BJCP05 huabeidianli-university
7 CP
1 116.3047 39.0297
50
294 BJCP06 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686 39.0397
75
295 BJCP07 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686 39.0397
75
296 BJCP08 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686 39.0397
75
297 BJCP09 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686
39.04
75
298 BJCP10 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686
39.04
75
299 BJCP11 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686
39.04
75
300 BJCP12 beijingshuntiantongwuye-com
7 CP
1 116.3686
39.04
75
301 BJCP13 beijingnakoujichecheliang-f
7 CP
0.32 116.1772 39.1778
75
302 BJCP14 beijingnakoujichecheliang-f
7 CP
0.32 116.1772 39.1778
75
303 BJCP15 beijingnakoujichecheliang-f
7 CP
0.32 116.1772 39.1778
75
304 BJCP16 beijingnakoujichecheliang-f
7 CP
0.32 116.1772 39.1778
75305 BJCP17 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.1811 39.1778
75306 BJCP18 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.1811 39.1797
75
307 BJCP19 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.1811 39.1797
75308 BJCP20 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.1811 39.1797
75309 BJCP21 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.1811 39.1797
75
310 BJCP22 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100311 BJCP23 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100312 BJCP24 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100313 BJCP25 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100314 BJCP26 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100315 BJCP27 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
316 BJCP28 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
317 BJCP29 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
318 BJCP30 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
319 BJCP31 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
320 BJCP32 chengpingkejiyuan-heating-c
7 CP
1 116.2306 39.185
100
54 BJCY01 xiaoying-heating-factory
2 CY
1 116.3839 39.9706
100

Energy Balance Table 2003
Total Primary Energy Supply
Indigenous ProductionRecovery of Energy
Moving In from Other Provinces
ImportChinese Airplane&Ships In Refueling Abroad
Sending Out to Other Provinces(-)
Export(-)
Foreign Airplane&Ships In Refueling Abroad
Stock Change
Input(-)& Output(+) of Transformation
Thermal Power
Heating Supply
Coal Washing
CokingPetroleum Refines
Gas Works
Coke Input(-)
Briquettes
Loss
Total Final Consumption
Farning,Forestry,Animal husbandry,Fishery&water Conservancy
Second Industry
Industry
Non-Energy Use
Construction
Tertiary Industry
Residential Consumption
UrbanRural
Statistical Difference
Total Energy Consumtion

面源基年服务量确定的方法

Coal（10000 tce） Coal（10000 tons）
1532.24493
2145.1-722.000154-510.531639-209.539905-1010.78-714.73-293.35

819.23067
31.936353
423.901335
418.044075
6.578703
5.85726
171.532002
191.86098
46.64379
145.21719-8.978751
1548.366681

1146.944.71
593.45585.259.21
8.2
240.14
268.6
65.3
203.3
-12.572167.67CO2 Emission, t-C

3. Model Results

NOx Emission, t-NOx

Coal Demand, tce

SO2 Emission, t-SO2

Cost CurveApplication of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIStechnology

Coal use by sectors in China
1800
1600

Mtoe

1400
1200

Transport

1000

Commercial/Residential

800

Industry

600

Power Generation

400
2000
1990

2000

2010
Year

2020

2030

Clean coal technologies in baseline scenario
SectorPower generation
Industry/Boiler
Industry/Kiln
Coal processing
Desulfurazation inpower plants

TechnologySuper CriticalIGCC
Advanced boiler
Advanced kiln
Coal liquefaction

Share in 2030
25%4%
45%
38%
2% of total coal
58% of total coal
fired power plants

Clean coal technologies in Policy scenario
Sector/ProcessPower generation
Industry/Boiler
Industry/Kiln
Coal processing
Desulphurisation
power plants

TechnologySuper Critical
IGCC
Advanced boiler
Advanced kiln
Coal liquefaction
inShare in 2030
25%
30%75%
70%
10% of total coal
80% of total coal
fired power plants

Application of AIM/China in 2005-2006•Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030
•Urban Transport Development Study•Energy Fiscal Policy Assessment•Energy Five Year Plan for Hainan Province•Beijing Energy and Environment Analysis•Climate and Development: Clean CoalAssessment•Long-term Emission Scenarios up to 2050
•APEIS(AIM team)technology

Scenario definition
Options
Enhanced Energy Saving

Renewable energy

CarbonCapture
Sequestration
Clean coal technology
HydrogenTransport
Policies

Sector/options
Energy Intensive Products

Baseline scenario
Policy and technology scenario
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 2.7%
3.6%
Building
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 1.9%
3.0%
Transport
Annual average energy saving Annual average energy saving rate
rate 1.5%
2.8%
Biomass
Annual average reduction rate Annual average reduction rate ofof cost by 3.7%
cost by 5.9%
Hydro
65% of technical potential by 80% of technical potential by2050
2050
Solar/wind
0.7yuan/kWh by 2050
0.5Yuan/kWh by 2050
4% by 2050
15% by 2050
and Coal fired power plants
Industry
1% by 2050
5% by 2050
Power generation
7% by 2050
35% by 2050
Industry
5% by 2050
15% by 2050
Power generation
Distributed power generation Distributed power generation
system by 3% in 2050
system by 8% in 2050
Transport
Fuel cell vehicle 5%
Fuel cell vehicle 15%Vehicle
Hybrid vehicle diffusion start Hybrid vehicle diffusion start fromfrom 2010, 10% by 2030
2010, 70% by 2040
Carbon tax
No50yuan/t-C in 2010, 200yuan/t-C
in 2050
Subsidy
No
Power from renewable energy
0.4yuan/kWhInvestment
Energy Annual average growth rate 4% Annual average growth rate 6.2%
technology R&DCO2 emission reduction contribution
4000
3500
3000

Ener gy savi ng
CCS
Wi nd/ Sol ar
Bi omass
Hydr oNucl ear

2500
2000
1500
1000
50002000

2010

202020302040

2050

Conclusion• Energy Saving by technology progress and social
efficiency improvement is key for future GHG emission
reduction• Technologies including modern renewable energy,advanced nuclear, clean coal+CCS should be emphasizedfor early R&D• Fiscal energy policies including energy tax/carbon tax
could be a good option

Next Step of IPAC-AIM/China
Energy and Emission Scenario for China
Using AIM/Country for China Energy Scenario Forum
Other pollutant: PM10, water pollution, land damage
Energy Strategy up to 2050
IPCC AR4EMF-22
Energy regulation and financial measures
Energy planning for Guangdong and Hainan
Global Oil Market in 2030
Energy intensive material modelAIM/Local
Finished:
AIM/Local-Refinery
AIM/Local-Chemical(Ammonia and ethylene)
AIM/Local-Beijing
Under development:
AIM/Chongqing
AIM/Hainan

Inventory
BC:

OC:

Emission factor
Activities data
Regional characteristics
Modeling framework
preliminary work