The 19TH AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
December 13-14, 2013

Ram M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of Technology and ManagementNepal

Country Overview
 Predominance of biomass in energy supply
 Fossil fuel consumption low but growing rapidly Largest share of the transport sector in oil consumption
 Oil import cost exceeds the total export revenue Large hydropower potential but mostly unexploited GHG emission low currently, but expected to grow rapidly
 Early stage of infrastructure development andopportunities for adopting low carbon developmentmeasures

Objectives
 To identify least cost energy resource andtechnology options to achieve GHG emission
reduction targets.
 To analyze the sectoral contributions in meeting theGHG abatement targets
 To assess environmental and energy security
cobenefits of low carbon development

Total Energy Consumption during 1995-2008
10000

8000

ktoe

6000
4000
2000
0
1995

2000
Biomass

Coal

2005
Electricity

Oil Products

2008
Renewables

 Predominant share of biomass in total energy consumption (86%).

 Presently, low share of fossil fuels (about 10% )Source: WECS (2010)4

Total Energy Supply and Sectoral Consumption in 2010
Electricity
Import
0.6%

Coal
3.0%

Oil
9.7% Hydro
2.7%

Predominance of biomass energy inTPES.

2010
TPES:10219 ktoe

Biomass
84.1%

Agricultural Commercial
Transport 1.2%
1.7% Industrial
6.2%
4.6%

Predominant share of Residential
sector in Total Final Energy
Consumption (TFEC), followed bytransport, industrial and othersectors.

2010
TFEC: 10,101 ktoe

Residential
86.3%

Source: IEA (2013)

5Scenario Description
 Base case
 Three GHG reduction target cases:Case2020

2030

2040

2050

Low Emission
Reduction (ERL)

5%

10%

15%

20%

MediumEmission
Reduction(ERM)

10%

15%20%

30%

High Emission
Reduction (ERH)

15%

25%

35%

50%

Population and Economic Growth

Population Growth Rates, %2010-2020

1.4

2020-2030

0.9

2030-2040

0.7

2040-2050

0.4

Source: UN Population Statistics (2012)

Low current GDP growth rate of 3.42%
Future GDP growth rate considered: 5.56%

Preliminary Results

Total Primary Energy Supply in Base case, 2010-2050
25000

thousand toe

20000

15000

10000

5000

020102020

2030

2040

Biomass

Other Renewables

Coal & Lignite

Petroleum Products

Hydro PowerElectricity Import2050

 The total primary energy supply (TPES) is to be almost

doubled during 2010-2050.

TPES during 2010-2050
25000

TPES woulddecrease by 2.0%,3.2% and 8.0% in2030 under ERL,ERM and ERH
cases as comparedto the base case.

thousand toe

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
Base

Base

ERL

ERM

ERH

Base

2010

2030

Biomass

Other Renewables

Coal & Lignite

Hydro Power

Biofuels

Electricity Import

ERLERM
2050

Petroleum Products

ERH

TPES would decline
by 3.7%, 8.6% and15.8% in 2050
under ERL, ERM
and ERH cases.

Structure of TPES in Base Case, 2010 and 2050
Coal & Lignite
2.9%
Other
Renewables
0.4%

Electricity
Import0.6%

Petroleum Hydro Power
Products
2.8%
10.6%

• Dominance of biomass tocontinue.
• However, its share is todecline significantly during
2010-2050. (highurbanization!)

2010
TPES: 10,319 thousand toe

Biomass
82.7%

The share of oil products toincrease to 38.7% in 2050 from
10.6% in 2010.
Share of hydro power toincrease by 14.4% during 20102050.

Electricity
Import0.0%
Hydro Power
17.2%
Biomass
40.3%

2050
TPES: 20,173 Thousand toe

Petroleum
Products
38.7%

OtherRenewables
0.3%
Coal & Lignite
3.4%

TPES in Base Case and Low Carbon Scenario• The overall energy efficiency would be improved under ER cases• TPES in 2050 would decrease by 3.7% in ERL, 8.6% in ERM and15.8% in ERH case.

Structure of TPES in Low Carbon Scenarios in 2050

• Large increase in the share of hydro and biomass; decrease in share of oil inERH case

Electricity generation in Base and Low Carbon Cases

In 2050, hydroelectric generation to increase by 26% in ERL, 37% in ERM andERH cases.

Total Energy Related GHG Emissions in Base Case
30in million tonne CO 2e2520
1510502010
Residential

2020
Commercial

2030
Agriculture

2040
Industrial

Transport

2050
PowerOver 4 fold increase in the total GHG emissions by 2050.

Total Energy Related GHG Emissions in Base Case
Power Residential
0.0%
9.4%

Power
0.2%

Transport
41.8%

2010
Total GHG:
5.1 MtCO2e

Commercial
5.1% Agriculture

0.4%

Residential
20.6%

Agriculture
7.1%
Industrial
26.1%

Industrial
10.3%

Commercial
4.3%

2050

Transport
74.8%

Total GHG:
26.9 MtCO2e• Highest share of Transport in GHG Emission, followed by theresidential sector• Transport sector share to nearly double during 2010-2050• Shares of residential and industrial sectors to be nearly
halved by 2050.

GHG Reduction in Low Carbon Scenarios,
MtCO2eCumulative
2020-2050

ERL:
ERM:
ERH:

385694

 Contribution of transport sector: 79% to 85%
 Contribution of residential sector : 14% to 15%Cost Effective Low Carbon Options in Transport sector (inERH Scenario)
Both fuel switching to hybrid and electric road vehicles andmodal shift to electric railways

Freight rail (electric)
Gasoline hybrid 2-wheelers

Biodiesel tractor
Electric passenger vehicles (battery operated)Diesel hybrid vehicles

Cost Effective Low Carbon Options in Industrial Sector
Mainly energy efficient technologies:
 CFL
 Vertical shaft brick kiln (brick industry) Conventional bleaching (in large pulp and paper mill) Energy efficient diesel boiler Energy efficient coal boiler Energy efficient motor

Cost Effective Residential Sector Options in Low
Carbon Scenarios
Mainly energy efficient technologies
 LED lamps
 Electric Cooking
 Improved Biomass Cook stoves
 Solar cooking
 LPG Gas Geyser
 Energy efficient Fan
 Energy efficient Refrigerator
 LED TV

Cost Effective Commercial Sector Options inLow Carbon Scenarios
 Mainly energy efficient and electric devices
 LED lamps
 Efficient LPG cooker
 LPG space heater Electric Geyser LPG Gas Geyser
 Energy efficient Fan
 Energy Efficient AC
 Solar Cooker

Cost Effective Agriculture Sector Options in Low
Carbon Scenarios
Switch to energy efficient and electric devices
Energy Efficient Tractor
Efficient Electric Pump

Electric Motor for threshingEnergy Security Co-benefit of Low Carbon Strategies:
Change in Fuel Mix• Share of oil products to decrease from to 38.7% in base case to 31.2% inERL, 29.1% in ERM and 19.8% in ERH cases in 2050.
• Share of renewables to increase from 57.9% in base case to 65.2% inERL, 67.9% in ERM and 76.2% in ERH cases in 2050.

Environmental Co-benefits
SO2 Emission Reduction
14

million tonne

1210864202010

2020
Base

2030
ERLERM

2040

2050

ERH

• Cumulative SO2 emission reduction of 13.4%, 20.2% and 27.3%
under ERL, ERM and ERH cases.

Thank You