CIU 2015 (March 18, 2015)

Detecting Sudden Rises inTraffic Demand Based on
Route Search Request Log
Naoki Nozu, Kohei Ota, Reimi Ishimura
NAVITIME JAPAN Co., Ltd.

About NAVITIMEA Multi-modal Navigation Service Provider on Mobile Phone

Route Search Service

Automotive Navigation

Founded : March 1, 2000
2

Scale of Our Services

4 million Dues-paying Members
26 million Monthly Unique Users
As of September 30, 2014.

3

Our Business Domain
Consumer Services

Business Solutions

Domestic Apps.

Web Media
Telematics

Inbound App.
InternationalApps.

TransportConsulting
Business
NAVITIMEASP
4Our Data for Traffic Analysis

Big Data

Master Data

Today’s Topic
Traffic Demand

Route Choice

Route Search Route Choice
Request Logs
Logs

RoadNetworkData
Public Transport

Travel Record

Probe Data
at 1 sec.
interval

Road Traffic

GPSTimetable,Station
Data5

Route Search Request Logs
Origin & Destination

Time Setting

Journey Details

Request Time

Present
Specified Time

FutureReflect Future Traffic Demand6

Data Volume (FY 2013)
PublicTransport

Road
Traffic

Annual Sample Number
less than 3 mil.
3 mil. and more
10 mil. and more
30 mil. and more
100 mil. and more

Annual Sample Number
less than 1 mil.
1 mil. and more
2 mil. and more
5 mil. and more
10 mil. and more

#Pref.

1Tokyo2Samples#Pref.

510.4 mil.

1

Tokyo

14.3 mil.

Kanagawa

152.4 mil.

2

Kanagawa

9.0 mil.

3

Osaka

126.7 mil.

3

Saitama

8.0 mil.

…

…

…

…

…

45

Tokushima

0.7 mil.

45

Saga

0.6 mil.

46

Kochi

0.7 mil.

46

Kochi

0.5 mil.

47

Okinawa

0.3 mil.

47

Tokushima

0.5 mil.

1.3 bn. Samples a Year

Samples…

130 mil. Samples a Year

Large Amount of Samples Available

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Research Outline

Route Search Request Logs• Large Amount of Samples Availabe• esp. for rail service• Reflect Future Traffic Demand

Purpose of our StudyTo Detect Sudden Rises in Traffic Demandby Using Route Search Request Logs
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Heat Map
Visualizing the Concentration of Traffic Demand
April 13, 2013

SeibuKyūjō-maestation

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Heat Map
Visualizing the Concentration of Traffic Demand
Before the curtain
time of Momoiro
Clover Z’s concert
at Seibu Dome,
April 13, 2013

Seibu-Kyūjōmae was the7th mostrequestedstation.

CentralTokyo10

The Number of Request Logs
Seibu-Kyūjō-mae Sta. on April 13, 2013Cumulated Number ofRoute Search Requests

2000

1500

1000

Before theOpening Timeof theMerchandise
Booth

Before theCurtain Time

Real Time
10 min before
2 hours before

15 hours before
4 days before
Cumulated Number inan Ordinary Day

500

08 times morerequested thanan ordinary dayat 4 days before
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Specified Arrival Time of Route Search Requests

Possible Use for the Capacity Adjustment & Retail Marketing11Increasing Trend in Advance Searches
The Growth of Advance Search Gives the Key to the Prediction

Advance Search Rate100%

People run searches
for morning trips
much earlier thanfor evening trips.

60%

People run searches
by arrival time
much earlier thanby departure time.

40%[DPT] 6 a.m.

80%

[ARR] 6 a.m.

20%

[DPT] 8 a.m.

0%
4 daysbefore[ARR] 8 p.m.

15 hours
before2 hours
before10 minbeforeReal TimeTime Difference between Request Time and Specified Time

People Run Searches in Advance for Morning Trips by Arrival Time
12Detection Method
Learning Period: From February 1 To March 17, 2013 (6 Weeks)Target Period for Prediction : From March 18 to April 14, 2013 (4 Weeks)Target Units for Prediction : 1,762,880= 1,574 Stations * 28 Days *20 Time Zones * 2(Departure or Arrival)？件A平常日の2倍以上のsudden rise is defined
as a case which retrieval
検索数が予測されたら
frequencies
become at「突発的移動需要」
twice
an ordinary day
Forecasting
the growth
過去の傾向を元にof the number of the
検索の伸びを予測
futureroute search

The basic retrieval frequencies平常日の検索数
in an ordinary day

4日前

15時間前

2時間前

10分前

検索実施日時
検索指定日時References
Ishimura R, Ota K & Tomii N (2013)
Detecting Sudden Rise in Demand of Transportation Needs in the Near Future Based onImmediate and Historic Data of Route Search Service (in Japanese).
The 47th Research Meeting on Civil Engineering Planning, 201313

Detection Result
Target Period: From March 18 To April 14, 2013 (4 weeks)
The Number of Sudden Rise in Traffic Demand:
Total 12,268 (2.2% were detected 4 days before)
Cause Event
ConcertSporting Event
Other Event
Holiday Resort
Government &Business District
School Event
Time Schedule
Revision

Number
Detected

Stations for Example

62 Seibu-Kyūjō-mae, Suidōbashi, Korakuen, SaitamaShintoshin, Shin-Yokohama
17 Ukimafunado, Hasune and Keisei-Sakura (formarathon), Urawa-misono
12 Kokusai-tenjijō-seimon, Yokosuka-chūō (for U.S.
Fleet Activities)
28 Kudanshita (for cherry-blossom viewing),
Takaosanguchi, Tokyo DisneySea Station
36 Nihon-ōdōri, Tochōmae, Kasumigaseki, Nishi-shinjuku
47 Kudanshita, Hiyoshi, Chuo-Daigaku・Meisei-Daigaku

Airport

15 Wakōshi, Shinjuku-sanchome, Kita-sando,Motomachi-Chūkagai
2 Haneda Airport, Haneda Airport Terminal 1Unknown

48Total267
14The World’s Fastest?
Demand Detection ofNEW SHINKANSEN

15Last Weekend

TokyoToyama

Kanazawa

16

Station Congestion Alert
Station Congestion Prediction Calendar as of March 7
http://www.navitime.co.jp/pcn/forecast/station (Japanese)
Toyama Station

Kanazawa Station

17

Kanazawa or Toyama?

18

Kanazawa or Toyama?

19The Number of Request Logs
Specified Date (as Arrival)
Request Date
Destination Station: From March 14 to 31, 2015
: From February 1 to March 7, 2015
: Kanazawa, Toyama

5000
4000

Kanazawa Total 23,258

3000

Toyama Total 9,886

2.4

Timesas Manyas Toyama

2000
1000

3月31日

3月30日

3月29日

3月28日

3月27日

3月26日3月25日

3月24日

3月23日

3月22日

3月21日

3月20日

3月19日

3月18日

3月17日

3月16日

3月15日

3月14日

020

Origin Distribution to Kanazawa
Specified Date (as Arrival):

From March 14 to 31, 2015
Request Date:

From February 1 to March 7, 2015
Destination Station:

Kanazawa

Tohoku Shinkansen
Area

Hokuriku (Nagano)
Shinkansen Area

Tokyo

JR East Widely Draws Customers
from their Shinkansen Areas 21

Development Potential
The impact to be inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List

The Tomioka Silk MillThe Daily Number of Searches
Sudden Rise after
UNESCO’sAnnouncementOrigin Distribution (Public Transport)
Target Period:
From April 26 To June 30, 2014

Visiting a Little Further
from Neighboring Area
Minakami

2,000Ikaho

富岡製糸場
Tomioka Silk Mill
1,500
1,000

Nikko

群馬サファリパーク
Gunma Safari ParkKusatsu
Karuizawa

Spin-off Effecton the Safari Park

3～10500～30

0～100
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 62013

2014

Route Search Request Logs Reflect a Trend Quickly

～300

～1000
1001～

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Conclusion

Sudden Rises in Traffic Demand• Have been Difficult to be Detected• Can be Detected by• Route Search Request LogsDetecting Sudden Rises in Traffic Demand• Will Improve• Public Transportation Services• Retail Marketing Approaches• Would Contribute to success• 2020 Tokyo Olympics & Paralympics
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