Thailand’s 1.5 Degrees
24th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
November 5-6, 2018
Sustainable Energy & Low Carbon Research Unit (SELC)
Thammasat University, Thailand

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSPopulation

GDP

100

600

90500

Forecasted data
Historical data

7070 mil. person

60
50
40

Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 0.48%
2014-2030 = 0.03%

Growth rate:
1990-2005 = 1.04%

Billion $US2005

Mil. person

80

400

300

2003020

Historical data

Forecasted data

Growth rate:
1990-2005 = 4.66%(As an average)

Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 3.78%
2014-2030 = 3.97%

100(As an average)

100
1990

0
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

22030

GHG Emissions Inventory: 2000-2013
EnergyIndustrial processes

Agriculture

LULUCF

2002

2005

2007

Waste

Net emissions (Include LULLCF)

400

GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq)

300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2000

2001

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

2003

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Trends of GHG emissions and Total final energy
consumption: 2000-2013
Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste

Total final energy consumption

400,000

80,000350,000

70,000300,000

60,000250,000

50,000200,000

40,000150,000

30,000100,000

20,00050,00010,000002000

2001

2002

2003

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Final energy consumption (ktoe)

GHG emissions (Gg CO2eq)

EnergyThailand’s GHG mitigation:
NAMA 2020 and NDC 2030

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

GHG emissions in the BaU scenario
and Thailand’s INDC by 2030
BaU emissions

GHG emissions (Mt-CO2eq)

600

20% GHG reduction

Waste

IPPU

Residential

CommercialIndustry

PowerGHG mitigation- Power 24 Mt-CO2eq
GHG- Industry 43 Mt-CO2 eq
mitigation - T ransport 41 Mt-CO2 eq- Residential 4 Mt-CO2 eq- Commercial 1 Mt-CO2 eq- IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO2eq- Waste 2 Mt-CO2eq
Total GHG mitigation
115.6 Mt-CO2 eq

555

500

400300439.4
20010002030BaU

Transport

2030INDC

THAILAND NDC ROADMAP 2030

7

NIES & Mizuho Visit
30 March 2018

AIM Training Workshop in Thailand
AIM/Enduse Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
11-15 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy maker)

AIM/Enduse Workshop
11-15 June 2018
• Redefine the energy system’s description in theresidential and the commercial sectors• Redesign the EV technologies in the transport sector• Recalculate the service demand projection in all energysectors• Restructure the industry service-flow diagram such as
cement industry in the IPPU sector

AIM Training Workshop in Thailand
CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
26 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy Makers)

Participant: Bhutan, Thailand: ONEP & CITC, SIIT-TU, JICA-Thailand

AIM Training Workshop in Thailand
CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
26 June 2018 (Policy Dialogue: Climate Policy Assessment)

Present Status of Thailand CGE• Development of Thailand CGE model – Base case
• Assessment of the effects of GHG mitigation on the economy– The analyses of Thailand’s NDC 2030
• BAU scenario, and five GHG mitigation scenarios: 20%, 25%, 30%,40% and 50%.
• In addition, the peak emission scenario to analyze the feasibility ofzero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global
temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as consideredin the Paris Agreement were also assessed.

• Manuscript submitted to the International Journal

13

Sectoral Classification in the Thailand CGE(31 sectors & 31 Commodities)
Metal & Non-metal Ore

Industries

Crops

Livestock

Food, Beverages & Tobacco Products

Agriculture&Forestry

Forestry

TextilePaper & Printing

Fishery

Chemical Industries

Rubber & Plastic Products

Railways

Non-metallic Products

Road Transport

Basic Metal

Water Transport

Fabricated Metal Products

Transport

Air Transport

Machinery
Construction

Other Transport Services

Other Manufacturing Products

SectoralClassification

Water Supply System

Communication

Coal & Lignite

Trade

Crude Oil

Other Services

Petroleum Products

Services

Gas
Electricity

OthersOther Sectors

Energy Sectors

14GHG Emission Trajectories in Thailand’s Scenarios
ScenariosDescription

BAU-NDCext(an NDCextendedscenario)

GHG emissions during 20102030 to be the same as thatgiven in the Thai NDC study.
From 2030 – 2050, the GHG
emission is estimated to growat an average growth rate of
3.1%

ERT20

A constant 20% reduction
during 2030-2050

ERT25

A constant 25% reduction
during 2030-2050

ERT30

A constant 30% reduction
during 2030-2050

ERT40

A constant 40% reduction
during 2030-2050

ERT50

A constant 50% reduction
during 2030-2050

ERT9090% GHG emission reduction
by 2050, leading to zero
emissions by 2060

15Impacts on Thailand’s GDP
GDP in all Scenarios

GDP would attain a slightly higher growth rate of 0.2%
than the expected GDP growth rates of 3.78% in the BAUNDCext scenario

Reduction in GDP under the ERT Scenarios

With 22.5% reductions, the GDP loss would besevere in 2045 under the ERT90 scenario

The imposition of GHG emission reduction targets will
have negative effects on the national economy with adecline in the country’s GDP.
16

Impacts on GHG Emissions & GHG Intensity
Variations in Sectoral Share in Total GHG
Emissions in all Scenarios

GHG Intensity in all ScenariosMajor GHG emission reductions required isfrom the electricity & the industry sectors

19Thailand Energy System Transition to KeepWarming Below 1.5 Degrees(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)•The figure suggests that early actions should be taken toachieve net zero CO2 emissions.
•CO2 emissions should peak in 2015 at US$1,000 /tCO2 in theCCS_REHH scenario.
•However, CO2 emissions can peak five years later in theCCS_RELW scenario at US$1,000/tCO2.
•Because of renewable energy deployment and fossil fuel basedwith CCS and BECCS, CO2 emissions are completely removed
from the power sector in the CCS_REHH scenario.

Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming
Below 1.5 Degrees(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)
BL

T0_NUC_RELW

T25_NUC_RELW

T50_NUC_RELW

T200_NUC_RELW

T500_NUC_RELW

T1000_NUC_RELW

T0_CCS_RELW

T25_CCS_RELW

T50_CCS_RELW

T200_CCS_RELW

T500_CCS_RELW

T1000_CCS_RELW

T0_NUC_REHH

T25_NUC_REHH

T50_NUC_REHH

T200_NUC_REHH

T500_NUC_REHH

T1000_NUC_REHH

T0_CCS_REHH

T25_CCS_REHH

T50_CCS_REHH

T200_CCS_REHH

T500_CCS_REHH

T1000_CCS_REHH

Annual Thailand carbon emissions (Mt-CO2 yr -1)

7006005004003002001000-1002005201020152020202520302035

204020452050

Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep
Warming Below 1.5 Degrees(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)
Cumulative carbon emissions
from 2010-2050 (Gt-CO2)

BaU
T50_NUC_RELW
T1000_NUC_RELW
T50_CCS_RELW
T1000_CCS_RELW

12111098765432100

T0_NUC_RELW
T200_NUC_RELW
T0_CCS_RELW
T200_CCS_RELW
T0_NUC_REHH

T25_NUC_RELW
T500_NUC_RELW
T25_CCS_RELW
T500_CCS_RELW
T25_NUC_REHH

12345
Cumulative carbon emissions from 2010-2030 (Gt-CO2)• Keeping net cumulative carbon emissions virtually zerocan be achieved during 2030-2050.
• Zero CO2 emissions strategies• CCS technologies (fossil-based fuel plants integrated
with CCS and BECCS)• Stringent RE target• CO2 emission taxes (US$500-US$1000 per tCO2)• Climate change awareness through internationalorganizations’ scientific reports and media• Capacity building within organizations, government
offices and communities

Note: light green shade = The CCS scenarios
grey shade= The nuclear scenarios

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy12345CCS &BECCS

StringentRECO2emission
taxes

Climatechangeawareness

Capacitybuilding• Electricity
generation• Manufacturin
g industry• Electricity
generation• Vehicle

Climate Change Mitigation inAgriculture, Forestry And Other Land Use (AFOLU)
Sector in Thailand
Agriculture
Emission and removals from soils
Forest and grassland conversion
Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks
AFOLU Net Emission
LULUCF Net emission

LULUCF
Agriculture

Mitigation potential (MtCO₂e)

805060203020100-40

Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e]
2030

500

300

1005025105NCP

500

300

50100251050-20NCP

GHG emission [MtCO₂eq/yr]

4040Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e]
2050-60
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

This paper analyzed mitigation/sequestration potentials in the AFOLU
sector at different carbon prices by using AFOLU-B.
Acknowledgement: Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka andDr. Tomoko Hasegawa
24

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSEGAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREESPopulation

70,000Registered population(Thousand person)

60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2030

2035

2040

0.6%

Annual growth rate (%)

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%
2010

2015

2020

2025

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.6%

26

Targeting the emission scenarios through the RCPs

RCPs

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FORTHAILAND 1.5 DEGREES“RCP4.5” and “RCP2.6”

RCP4.5

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

RCP2.6

GDPSSPs

Developing the two-dimensional classifications ofthe IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FORTHAILAND 1.5 DEGREES“SSP2 and “SSP1

SSP1

SSP2

SSP2 is close to present situation

SSP1
SSP1 is expected in future

SSP2

GHG

SPAs

Developing the three-dimensional classifications of
the IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs x SPAs

Representative
Concentration
Pathways“RCP

RCP4.5

RCP2.6Integrated
assessment
model in terms of“RCPs x SSPs

SSP1
Integrated
assessment
model in terms of“RCPs x SSPs x SPAs

GHG

GHG

SPA?
Thailand semission
scenarios“ESs

SSP2

SSP1

GHG

SPA??

SSP2

GHG

SPA???

SPA????

ES1

ES2

ES3

ES4

GHG

GHG

GHG

GHG

Thailand's National Strategy for 20 years
Royal Thai Government Gazette, 13 OCT 2018

Thailand’s NDC Roadmap 2030
Overall GHG reduction target = 115.6 MtCO2eq (20.8%)

IPPU
0.6 Mt CO2eq(0.1%)

Energy &Transport
113 Mt CO2eq(20.4%)Waste
2 Mt CO2eq(0.3%)