The 15th AIM International Workshop
February 22, 2010

Development of the Backcasting model–Application to Japan LCS Study –Shuichi Ashinaa), Junichi Fujinoa), ToshihikoMasuia), Kazuya Fujiwarab), Go Hibinob),
Mikiko Kainumaa) and Yuzuru Matsuokac)a) National Institute for Environmental Studiesb) Mizuho Information and Research Institutec) Kyoto University

http://2050.nies.go.jp
This research was made possible by a Global Environmental Research Fund
(GERF/S-6-1). The authors would like to thank all who made this research projectpossible.

SummaryWhat did we do?
• We draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal
investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society in Japan by
2050 using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology.
What did we find?
• Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward an LCS in
Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at theinitial stages. Because:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost of reducing CO2emissions will fall as the technologies spread.
If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently,
resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS.
No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch
suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050.
Future technological development has several uncertainties. Early actions will
open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS
should a dominant technology fail in some way.

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2Current status of Japan LCS Study• We have shown feasibilities of Low-carbonization in Japan by2050.
• Some journal articles and reports have been published.
• Our outcomes (probably) affects national policy/strategy aboutclimate change (esp. CO2 reduction).
Vision A

Vision B

OptionSlow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Non-LCS

OptionOptionAkemi
Imagawa

Option38972836

174177

Industry

1013

Residential &commercial

6124Transportation

Reductionof demand
Improvement ofenergy intensityof end-use

36CCS

Energy supply

Energy demand sector

902050 CO2 Emission

70% reduction

621

Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensityof energy supplyof end-use

Evaluation by backcast model

2000 CO2 Emission

LCS

Energy supply sector

When, which option, andhow much to install?

Base year

Change of activity

Changeof activity

1990 CO2 Emission

CO2 emissions

Vivid, Technology-driven

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
Storage・Farm products produced and consumed in season

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

Target year

• Next question: “How to reach the future?”
2010/02/22・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

The 15th AIM International Workshop

3How to make a roadmap to the LCS?:• We already have several roadmaps by experts. But…
Fuel Cell Vehicles

Nuclear power

Photovoltaics

Fuel cells

Energy efficient lighting

Green IT• These roadmaps (usually) focuses one technology/segment in a society.
• In order to find “comprehensive” roadmaps towards LCS, we need tocombine the information appropriately.
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4Issues to be considered in depicting comprehensive roadmaps
CO2 emissions• Each roadmap (explicitly/implicitly) aims to the LCS?

LCS
Base year

Target year

• Combination of roadmaps brings inconsistency in energy balance, economic
structure etc ?
Halvingenergyconsumption+Halving
energyconsumption+

Reduction inX Mtoe=

Minus energy
consumption??

In order to find comprehensive roadmap with keeping consistency in energybalanceand/or economic activity,
anAIM“AIM/Backcast”
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5Overview of the AIM/Backcast model• The model investigates and selects which options (countermeasures andpolicies) to introduce and when and at what intensity in order to best achieve
the future social and economic activities portrayed in the scenarios whilesatisfying the service demand today and throughout the period up to the target
year based on certain criteria.
• The model also presents a Gantt chart with pathways of CO2 emission,
investment, and other related quantitative data.

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How to address existing roadmaps in the model?
(1) Decompose to individual technology and/or policy

Ex. A roadmap contains five types of technologies and three policies:
Policy 3
Tech. A

Tech. B
Tech. D

Policy 1

Tech. A’
Policy 2

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Tech. C7

How to address existing roadmaps in the model?
(2) Set relationships/order between components
Ex. A roadmap contains five types of technologies and three policies:

Order has been set in order of time.
Tech. A

Tech. B

Tech. D
Policy 3

Tech. A’

Policy 1

Tech. CPolicy 2Time

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8How to address existing roadmaps in the model?
(3) Set quantitative data for each technology/policy
Input

Future target visionSocial/Economicalconditions



Set of options

OutputFeasibility of the target
 Roadmaps
 CO2/Cost trajectoriesAnd, each options’Sequential orderElapsed timeKick-off period
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9Application to Japan Low-Carbon Society Study- How to reach the society with 70% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050? • Future society visions: Scenario A and Scenario B
Vision B

Akemi
Imagawa

389728Industry

1013

Residential &commercial

6124174177

Transportation

3636CCS

Energy supply

1%/yr GDP per capita growth9062050 CO2 Emission

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

Reductionof demand

Social and Cultural Values

70% reduction

Comfortable and Convenient

2000 CO2 Emission

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally
1990 CO2 Emission

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

21

Improvement ofenergy intensityof end-use

Decentralized/Community
Energy demand sector

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensityof energy supplyof end-use

Vivid, Technology-driven

Change of activity

Changeof activity

Energy supply sector

Vision A

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon CaptureStorage

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission• Individual roadmaps and technology/policy are set based on “DozenActions” which is one of comprehensive and qualitative study aboutroadmaps towards LCS.

• Criteria : Cost minimization
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10Results: CO2 pathways towards LCS350

350

Scenario A

Scenario B
300
CO2 emissions [MtC]

CO2 emissions [MtC]

300

250
200
15010050

Action 10Action 8Action 6Action 3
Action 1Action 9Action 7Action 5
Action 2CO2 emissions

250
200
150

10050

Action 10Action 8Action 6
Action 3
Action 1Action 9Action 7
Action 5Action 2CO2 emissions

002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• When the CO2 target for 2050 is set 70% lower than the 1990 level, thepathways to reach the target in scenarios A and B are quite similar.
• The optimum course in terms of total cost is to start introducing measuresby as early as 2010 and reduce emissions by 17% compared to the 1990
level by 2020 and by 30% by 2030.
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Investment pathways for achieving LCS under the total
cost minimization• The investigation has also revealed a key piece of information to be determinedfor prompt action, namely, the necessary initial investment.
• In both scenarios sharply as a consequence of learning-by-doing effects andreductions in the demand for transportation services due to changes in thestructure of cities. By 2020, the costs reach close to zero.
• Meanwhile, however, the additional fixed costs in the residential and2010/02/22
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12commercial sectors stay at around
2 Internationaltrillion JPY
per year until 2030.

Gantt Chart towards LCS (a part)2010/02/22

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13

Viewpoints of future pathways: Four reasons for taking early actions
1.
2.

3.
4.

Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost oflow-carbon technologies will fall as the technologies spread.
If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work
sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements toachieve a LCS.
No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be
difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050.
Future technological development has several uncertainties. If
one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule,
it will fail to spread as expected and CO2 emission targets will not
be met. Early actions will open up new opportunities for thespread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant
technology fail in some way.

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Point 1: Learning-by-doing effects• In the absence of learning-by-doing effects, the CO2 reduction pathway
will be delayed.
• The introduction of major CO2 reduction options through the early-stage
investment of large sums will not only gradually reduce the cost via
learning-by-doing effects but also reduce the total investment required forachieving a LCS.
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Point 2: Delays in initiating action will push up costs••

If actions are taken quickly, the total additional investment will be 12.7 trillion JPY in scenario
A and 7 trillion JPY in scenario B.

If action is delayed by 10 years, the total additional fixed costs will increase to 93 trillion JPY
in scenario A and 91 trillion JPY in scenario B. The fuel cost savings, meanwhile, will come toonly 54 trillion JPY in both scenarios, as these options will spread late. Thus, the resultant
additional investment from 2010 to 2050 will be 39 trillion and 37 trillion JPY in scenarios A
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16and B, respectively.

Point 3: It takes time to construct infrastructure••Infrastructure (cityinfrastructure, transportation
systems, energy infrastructure,buildings, etc.) generally has along service life and cannot
easily be modified onceconstructed.
The infrastructure built today islikely to be in use in 2050. Thus,
the framework of a LCS isalready being established.

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17Point 4: There are uncertainties in technological research,development, and deployment• Taking action now to achieve a LCS will encourage active technology
development, improve efficiency, reduce costs by learning-by-doing
effects, spread the portfolio of alternative actions, prepare us for future
uncertainties, and thus raise the possibility of achieving a costefficient LCS.
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The 15th AIM International Workshop

18Summary
What did we do?
• We draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal
investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society in Japan by2050 using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology.
What did we find?
• Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward an LCS in
Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at theinitial stages. Because:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost of reducing CO2
emissions will fall as the technologies spread.
If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently,
resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS.
No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch
suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050.
Future technological development has several uncertainties. Early actions will
open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS
should a dominant technology fail in some way.

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Further information• [Journal] Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, in printing.
• [Journal] Climate Policy - modeling long-term scenarios for low-carbon
societies - Vol.8 Supplement 2008
• [Report] Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)• [Report] Aligning Climate Change and Sustainability - Scenarios, modelingand policy analysis - (AIM, 2007), CGER-Report, CGER-I072-2007

ALL INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH
http://2050.nies.go.jp

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Thank you for your attention!
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