米国での将来計画の議論のやり方について
村山斉 (Berkeley, Kavli IPMU)
2022/09/21 光赤天連シンポジウム

Report cover goes here

https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/11-04-2021/docs/DCCD818EBBC059A57055070F967764DEA456557CCBDC

基本的な考え方• Funding agency (NASA, NSF, DOE)が数億円のお金を出して、次の10年の計画を練ることを National Academies of Sciences に注文• その際、今後の予算のシナリオをいくつか提示• 何についてアドバイスが必要か、詳細な Statement of Task
• Chair を選ぶ• NAS と chair で steering committee, 各パネルを構成、約150人が参加• サイエンスが軸のパネル、手法が軸のパネル両方ある• White paper を募集• Town hall で講演、議論• 各パネルが recommendation をまとめる• Steering committee が一つの recommendation にまとめる

National Academy of Sciences• 私的非営利団体
Physical and Mathematical Sciences•
Biological Sciences•
Engineering and Applied Sciences•
Biomedical Sciences•
Behavioral and Social Sciences•
Applied Biological, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences•• 2400人のアメリカ人研究者、500人の国際メンバー、内ノーベル賞190人• メンバーが新メンバーを推薦、選出、終身• 会費有り、しかし収入は endowment と NRC reports• The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine toprovide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex
problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research,recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science,engineering, and medicine. The National Academies' service to government has become so essential that
Congress and the White House have issued legislation and executive orders over the years that reaffirm its
unique role.

US Congress

仕組み

予算

NASA
NSF

資金

National ResearchCouncilNational Academyof ScienceschargeBoard ofPhysics and Astronomy

DOE
Steering Committee

ReportPeer review

Reports, recommendations

Panel 1Panel 2....

White papers, talks, town hall discussions

community

Panel 13

COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 2020
(ASTRO2020): STEERING COMMITTEE
1FIONA A. HARRISON, NAS, California Institute of Technology, Co-Chair
ROBERT C. KENNICUTT JR., NAS, University of Arizona and Texas A&M University, Co-ChairJULIANNE DALCANTON, University of Washington
TIM DE ZEEUW, Leiden University
ANDREW S. DRIESMAN, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
JONATHAN J. FORTNEY, University of California, Santa CruzGABRIELA GONZÁLEZ, NAS, Louisiana State University
JORDAN A. GOODMAN, University of Maryland
MARC P. KAMIONKOWSKI, NAS, Johns Hopkins University
BRUCE MACINTOSH, Stanford University
JACOBUS M. OSCHMANN, Independent Consultant
RACHEL A. OSTEN, Space Telescope Science Institute, Executive Officer
LYMAN A. PAGE, JR., NAS, Princeton University
ELIOT QUATAERT, NAS, Princeton University
2
WANDA A. SIGUR, NAE, Independent Consultant
RACHEL SOMERVILLE, Flatiron Institute
KEIVAN G. STASSUN, Vanderbilt University
JEAN L. TURNER, University of California, Los Angeles
PIETER VAN DOKKUM, Yale University
ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, NAS, University of Wisconsin, Madison

結果• 616 ページ• We live in a time of extraordinary discovery and progress inastronomy and astrophysics. The next decade will transform ourunderstanding of the universe and humanity's place in it. Every
decade the U.S. agencies that provide primary federal funding
for astronomy and astrophysics request a survey to assess thestatus of, and opportunities for the Nation's efforts to forward
our understanding of the cosmos. Pathways to Discovery in
Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s identifies the mostcompelling science goals and presents an ambitious program ofground- and space-based activities for future investment in thenext decade and beyond. The decadal survey identifies threeimportant science themes for the next decade aimed atinvestigating Earth-like extrasolar planets, the most energetic
processes in the universe, and the evolution of galaxies. The
Astro2020 report also recommends critical near-term actions to
support the foundations of the profession as well as thetechnologies and tools needed to carry out the science.
大抵 space で３つ、ground based で３つの最優先プロジェクト•• 実際にはそのうち１〜２しか実現しないことが多い

https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26141/pathways-to-discovery-in-astronomy-and-astrophysics-for-the-2020s

Statement of Task and Panel Descriptions
STATEMENT OF TASKThe National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine shall convene an ad hoc survey
committee and supporting study panels to carry out a decadal survey in astronomy and astrophysics. The
study will generate consensus recommendations to implement a comprehensive strategy and vision for a
decade of transformative science at the frontiers of astronomy and astrophysics. The committee, with
inputs from study panels covering the breadth of astronomy and astrophysics, will carry out the following
tasks:
1. Provide an overview of the current state of astronomy and astrophysics science, andtechnology research in support of that science, with connections to other scientific areas
where appropriate;
2. Identify the most compelling science challenges and frontiers in astronomy and astrophysics,
which shall motivate the committee’s strategy for the future;
3. Develop a comprehensive research strategy to advance the frontiers of astronomy andastrophysics for the period 2022-2032 that will include identifying, recommending, andranking the highest priority research activities—taking into account for each activity thescientific case, international and private landscape, timing, cost category and cost risk, as wellas technical readiness, technical risk, and opportunities for partnerships. The strategy should
be balanced, by considering large, medium, and small activities for both ground and space.
(Activities include any project, telescope, facility, experiment, mission, or research programof sufficient scope to be identified separately in the final report.) For each recommended
activity the committee will lay out the principal science objectives and activity capabilities,
including assumed or recommended activity lifetime, where possible;
4. Utilize and recommend decision rules, where appropriate, for the comprehensive researchstrategy that can accommodate significant but reasonable deviations in the projected budget
or changes in urgency precipitated by new discoveries or unanticipated competitive activities;
5. Assess the state of the profession, using information available externally and, if necessary,data gathered by the study itself, including workforce and demographic issues in the field.
Identify areas of concern and importance to the community raised by this assessment inservice of the future vitality and capability of the astronomy and astrophysics work force.
Where possible, provide specific, actionable and practical recommendations to the agencies
and community to address these areas. This report shall be made available following thecompletion of the study.

•

•

•

6 Science Panels• Compact Objects and Energetic Phenomena• Cosmology• Galaxies• Exoplanets, Astrobiology, and the Solar
System• Interstellar Medium and Star and Planet
Formation• Stars, the Sun, and Stellar Populations
6 Program Panels• Enabling Foundation for Research• Electromagnetic Observations from Space 1• Electromagnetic Observations from Space 2• Optical and Infrared Observations from the
Ground• Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation• Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter
Observations from the Ground
Panel on the Profession and Societal Impacts

ApproachNASA, NSF, and DOE provided budget guidance, bounded by ambitious andconservative scenarios
The agencies urged the survey to develop an “ambitious”, “aspirational”, and“inspirational” plan
But a plan also needs to be realistic, responsible, achievable, sustainable
The Survey’s Approach:•

Propose an ambitious program, but with decision rules,
decision points, and contingencies•

Emphasize phased development of many projects to lower
risks and provide flexibility to agencies•

Present a strategy, with details of implementation resting withagencies and their advisory committees

Astro2020 Process
community science
white papers(573)

Science Panels (6)frontier questions
discovery areas

community APC
white papers(294)

Program Panels (6)project assessments(science, technical, cost, risk)

SoPSI Panelassess health ofprofession, provide
actionable advice

Steering Committee
assimilate panel reports, address cross-cutting areas
integrate science program, identify key strategic questions,prioritized investment strategy within budget guidelines3つの Science Themes• Worlds and Suns in Context• The quest to understand the interconnected systems of stars and the worlds
orbiting them, from the nascent disks of dust and gas from which they form,
through the formation and evolution of the vast array of extrasolar planetarysystems so wildly different than the one in which Earth resides• New Messengers and New Physics• New Messengers and New Physics captures the scientific questions associatedwith inquiries ranging from astronomical constraints on the nature of dark matterand dark energy, to the new astrophysics enabled by combined observations withparticles, neutrinos, gravitational waves, and light• Cosmic Ecosystems• The universe is characterized by an enormous range of physical scales andhierarchy in structure, from stars and planetary systems to galaxies and acosmological web of complex filaments connecting them

前回
• Cosmic Dawn:• Searching for the First Stars, Galaxies, and Black Holes• New Worlds:• Seeking Nearby, Habitable Planets• Physics of the Universe:• Understanding Scientific Principles

Science Theme: Worlds and Suns in Context
The quest to understand the interconnected systems ofstars and the worlds orbiting them, from the nascent disks ofdust and gas from which they form, through the formationand evolution of the vast array of extrasolar planetarysystems so wildly different than the one in which EarthresidesThis theme is forefront this decade because of:•

The extraordinary rate of discovery of new exoplanets–
understanding the demographics and finding the nearest
planets for detailed study•

The promise of JWST to make pioneering observations of
exoplanet atmospheres•

The revolution DKIST will bring to understanding theSun’s atmosphere•

The revolution in studying planet formation by imaging
protoplanets and their accretion disks using large groundbased telescopes (OIR and ALMA)

ALMA image of a youngplanet-forming star

DKIST image of a sunspot

Priority Area: Pathways to Habitable Worlds
We are on a path to exploring worlds resembling Earthand answering the question: “Are we alone?” The task
for the next decades will be finding the easiest of suchplanets to characterize, and then studying them in detail,searching for signatures of life.
The needed capabilities include:•

Ground-based ELTs equipped with high-resolution spectroscopy, high-performance
AO, and high-contrast imaging•

A large space-based IR/O/UV telescope with high contrast imaging andspectroscopy capable of observing planets 10 billion times fainter than their host starHigh spatial and spectral resolution X-ray observations to probe stellar activity
across the entire range of stellar types••

Laboratory and theoretical studies

Science Theme: New Messengers and New Physics
New Messengers and New Physics captures thescientific questions associated with inquiries ranging
from astronomical constraints on the nature of dark
matter and dark energy, to the new astrophysics enabled
by combined observations with particles, neutrinos,
gravitational waves, and light
This theme is forefront this decade because of:•Tremendous progress in observations of the Cosmic
Microwave Background•

Time domain surveys that have uncovered an
astounding array of transient phenomena•

The discovery of compact object mergers with LIGO,
and the detection of electromagnetic counterparts•

Ice Cube’s detection of high energy neutrinos ofastrophysical origin

Priority Area: New Windows on the Dynamic Universe
The New Windows on the Dynamic Universe priority area
involves using light in all its forms, gravitational waves, andneutrinos to study cosmic explosions on all scales and themergers of compact objects
The needed capabilities include:•

Facilities to discover and characterize the brightness and spectra oftransient sources as they appear and fade away•

Ground-based ELTs to see light coincident with mergers•

A next-generation radio observatory to detect the relativistic jets
produced by neutron stars and black holes•

Next generation CMB telescopes to search for the polarization
produced by gravitational waves in the infant universe•

Upgrades to current ground-based gravitational wave detectors,
and development of next generation technologies•

Improvements in the sensitivity and angular resolution of highenergy neutrino observatories

Science Theme: Cosmic Ecosystems
The universe is characterized by an enormous rangeof physical scales and hierarchy in structure, fromstars and planetary systems to galaxies and acosmological web of complex filaments connectingthemThis theme is forefront because:•

JWST will provide definitive observations of the earliest
stages of galaxy formation and evolution•

The Rubin Observatory, Roman, and Euclid will provide
imaging and spectral energy information for millions ofgalaxies, complementing the in-depth observations fromJWST•

Progress in numerical simulations is evolving rapidly andis driving our understanding of the observations

Priority Area: Unveiling the Drivers of Galaxy Growth
The priority area involves unveiling the drivers ofgalaxy growth, focusing on processes affecting
galactic scales
The needed capabilities include:•

ELTs to observe galaxies in the young universe•

A next generation radio telescope to map emission linesof molecular gas, tracing cold gas•

A next generation IR/O/UV space telescope to trace thedetails of the nearby, evolved universe•

FIR and X-ray missions to peer into the dusty hearts ofgalaxies to reveal enshrouded black holes, and trace thehottest gas phases•

Investments in theory to realize a new scientificfoundation for understanding galaxy evolution

The Profession and its Societal Impacts“The pursuit of science, and scientific excellence, is inseparable from thehumans who animate it.”-- Panel on the State of the Profession and Societal Impacts

Guiding principles: diversity, equitable access, benefits to the nation andthe world, sustainability and accountability
Astro2020 report includes 10 recommendations in this area
Here we provide a brief synopsis: see the full report for additional discussionsof education, career paths and pipelines, public outreach and engagement,
climate change, and benefits to the nation

The Profession and its Societal Impacts
Areas of key recommendations for the state of the profession• Collecting demographic data to understand equity in funding• Diversity of the profession- Improving diversity of project and mission teams- Investing in and sustaining workforce diversity ”bridge”
programs- Undergraduate and graduate traineeship programs• Professional policies related to harassment and discrimination• Community relations• Dark skies and protecting the radio frequency spectrum

アメリカの教員への応募では必須
Statement on Advancing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Valerie Domcke
Introduction
I firmly believe that diversity plays a key role in advancing science. The variety of world views
and ways of thinking, arising from our personal experiences and the culture we grew up in, isa tremendous resource of new ideas, viewpoints, critical questioning of existing paradigms, andstimulating discussions. In comparison with the world at large, the average conference room inhigh energy particle physics is sadly quite uniform, both in the audience and the selection of
speakers. I am dedicated to changing this as best I can. This is, of course, a challenging taskwith no simple magical solutions. We need to proactively ensure equity, the fair treatment andaccess to support for those who have had structural issues and barriers placed in their career
paths. The current worldwide COVID-19 crisis is tremendously increasing those barriers for
some, with many children cut off from the education and programs provided by their schools.
It will be an additional challenge in the upcoming years to reach out to and support theseyoung people. Finally, I strive to achieve a high level of inclusion in scientific environments byproviding a welcoming and respectful atmosphere. Research thrives on asking critical questions
and recognizing mistakes, so I believe it is crucial to value all contributions to a discussion,
encourage questions, and openly admit errors. I also believe it is important (and often neglected)
to provide feedback, both critical and positive, to students and colleagues.
Advancing diversity, equity and inclusion is a complex and multi-dimensional task. In thisstatement I will focus mainly on aspects of geographic, socioeconomic and gender diversity, butother aspects such as race, ethnicity, religion, language, abilities/disabilities, sexual orientation
are by no means less important. Some aspects which I discuss here can be extended into theseother directions, but the complexity necessitates a multitude of carefully tailored steps to address
them all.
Track record
As an undergraduate, I spent a semester in Singapore and travelling the neighbouring countriesof Southeast Asia, curious to explore the world beyond the boundaries of Europe. I learned
some science there, too, but mostly I was impressed by cultural differences, some of them rather
entertaining but others leading me to seriously question my views of the world. I was deeply
impressed by the hospitality and the open-mindedness of people who in my ‘western’ eyes were
bitterly poor and had very little education. After finding myself stranded in the countryside of
Laos during a motorcycle tour, a schoolteacher in a remote village brought me into his home.
The next day when I met his students, I was struck by their tremendous enthusiasm for science;at the same time it was sadly clear that these kids had little chance of any higher education. I
felt there was little I could do, beyond setting up their only computer, answering some questions,and helping them to practice English. Later on in my career, I have tried to create opportunities
for students and young researchers from countries which are not traditionally strong in naturalsciences. I have given talks and visited research institutes in Vietnam and India, and recently,
during the COVID-19 crisis, I gave a public lecture to undergraduate students in Bangladesh.
Last year, I was a co-organizer of a workshop on gravitational waves at ICTP, Trieste, with a
special budget and strategy to attract participants from developing countries.
I also strive to improve the gender balance in natural sciences. As a postdoc in Paris, I was
1 /3

Statement on Contributions to Advancing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Benjamin R. Safdi
The lack of diversity in physics as a whole and in theoretical particle physics in particular is a serious problem.
I believe that there is a lot that I can do as a professor to try to increase the number of women and members ofunderrepresented minorities in the field. Below I outline some of the strategies that I have implemented towards
this end since starting at the University of Michigan and transitioning to LBNL. I have been actively approaching
this problem from two di↵erent perspectives. First, I work to encourage women and members of underrepresented
minorities to consider careers in theoretical physics. Second, I work to promote researchers from underrepresented
groups already in the field.
In my first semester at Michigan it became clear to me that while there are many white women and members ofunderrepresented minorities in the department, these undergraduate and graduate students were not approachingme about research opportunities. After talking with colleagues, I started to suspect that many of these students were
simply more intimidated about approaching the faculty, especially in the particle theory group. To counter this issue
I decided to approach Zhiquan Sun, an extremely strong undergraduate student in my advanced physics class, to see
if she would be interested in working in my research group. She was enthusiastic and told me that she was hoping towork with someone in the theory group on a research project but felt too intimidated to approach anyone directly.
My work with Zhiquan has been extremely successful, and we have authored three papers together. I encouraged
her to present some of her work at the APS conference in Denver in 2019, where she made valuable connections withsuccessful female faculty members in the field (who I asked in advance to chat with Zhiquan). I also encouraged her
to apply for the FUTURE of Physics workshop at Caltech for aspiring young women in physics in the fall of 2019.
I nominated her for the program and her application was successful. She said that the program made her excitedabout graduate school and helped her ease her sense of impostor syndrome. I helped Zhiquan prepare her graduate
school applications, and she was accepted to an impressive number of top programs in theoretical physics, including
MIT, Princeton, Stanford, and Caltech; she is now pursuing a PhD in theoretical physics at MIT.
Last year I tried applying the same hiring approach to graduate students. I was frustrated that our incoming classof graduate students interested in high-energy phenomenology was almost exclusively male, so I searched throughthe applications of the incoming class and found that one of the graduate students (Yujin Park) who was accepted
for cosmology theory indicated on her application that one of her main interests is dark matter. I contacted herover the summer of 2019 to see if she would be interested in discussing research prospects with me, and I started
having conversations with her. I quickly discovered that she was is fact most interested in working on exactly thetype of physics done in my group but that she felt intimidated by the high-energy theory group and so was planning
to approach faculty members in cosmology instead. Yujin and I have been working together now for around a year,
and I have found her to be a very strong physicist. We are currently finishing our first paper together. One pointthat I have taken away from these experiences is that there may be barriers that make it less likely for students fromunderrepresented groups to contact faculty directly about research opportunities. One way to help work around thisis to contact promising students from these groups directly, which is an approach that I plan to continue in the future.
In 2019/2020 I served on the Michigan graduate admissions committee, and I was specifically in charge of phenomenology and cosmology theory applications. I am proud to have helped recruit one of the most diverse groups
of incoming students, starting in fall 2020, in these subfields in recent years at Michigan. I believe that part of thissuccess was due to an aggressive recruiting strategy that I adopted, where I spent extra time encouraging womenand members of underrepresented minorities to attend Michigan. In the future I would like to continue exploring
ways to increase the diversity of incoming graduate students in high-energy theory, phenomenology, and cosmology.
In addition to encouraging white women and members of underrepresented minorities to consider careers in theoretical physics, I believe that serious e↵ort needs to be done to make sure that these aspiring researchers stay inthe field. In my own group I try to foster an inclusive atmosphere, where everyone feels comfortable and respects
professional boundaries. At the same time I try to make sure that my group feels like a community, for example
we all have lunch together almost every day (since going virtual due to COVID-19 we all have a daily virtual co↵eetime), as I believe that having a sense of belonging is especially helpful for members of underrepresented groups inmaintaining confidence with their career choices.
At the professional level I make an e↵ort when organizing seminars, conferences, and workshops to include a diverse
array of participants and speakers. I have organized multiple conferences and workshops, and this is always one of myNSF Investigator Grants Programs
The NSF AAG program is a cornerstoneof the enabling research foundation
Over the past 20 years success rates
have steadily declined from 45% to 25%
or lower; much lower for first-time
proposers
These grants are crucial for achieving thescientific goals of the decadal survey

Recommendation: NSF should increase funding for the individual investigator
Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants by 30 percent in real dollars (i.e.
above the rate of inflation) over five years from 2023-2028 starting with the FY
2019 budget inflated appropriately. This will have the effect of restoring
success rates to a healthy competitive level

The Frontiers: Major New Projects and Sustaining
Programs
The compelling programs recommended by past surveys are vital to thescientific vibrancy of the coming decade
Ground•••Midscale Innovations Program
Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope
Vera Rubin Observatory

Space
•
•
•
•
•
•

Explorer Program Augmentation
James Webb Space Telescope
Roman Space Telescope
US Contribution to Euclid
US Contribution to Athena
US Contribution to LISA

Conclusion: The Survey’s recommendations for advancing the new programs oraugmentations are predicated on the assumption that the major astrophysics
facilities and missions in NASA, NSF, and DOE’s current plans are completed
and fully supported for baseline operations and scienceSpace Program Medium/Large Programs Overview
Enabling and Realizing Large Strategic Missions
Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program
Infrared/optical/UV mission
High resolution X-ray imaging mission
Far-IR imaging and spectroscopy mission
2022

2032

Review

Implement Infrared/optical/UV mission

Sustaining Programs
Time Domain Astrophysics Program
A Competed Line of Probe Missions with areas identified by Decadal Surveys

Recommended Missions for Maturation
Highest Priority:• An IR/O/UV Large Telescope Optimized for Observing Habitable
Exoplanets and General Astrophysics
To the program as soon as possible. Target cost for mission: 11B$ (FY20).
Analysis estimates maturation program of ~six years, $800M required before
review and transition to mission adoption

Of Co-equal Priority:• A far-IR spectroscopy and/or imaging strategic mission
To start mid-decade. Target cost for mission: 3 – 5 B$ (FY20). ~40M$
per year required for maturation program this decade• A high spatial and spectral resolution X-ray strategic mission
To start mid-decade. Target cost for mission: 3 – 5 B$ (FY20). ~40M$
per year required for maturation program this decadeA Future IR/Optical/UV Telescope Optimized for Observing Habitable
Exoplanets and General Astrophysics

Simulated space-telescope image of a complete
planetary system including a life-bearing Earth-likeplanetSimulated spectrum of an Earth-twin planet observed from the
UV to near-IR by a space coronagraph

Recommendation: After a successful mission and technology maturation
program, NASA should embark on a program to realize a mission to search forbiosignatures from a robust number of about ~25 habitable zone planets and to
be a transformative facility for general astrophysics. If mission and technology
maturation are successful, as determined by an independent review,
implementation should start in the latter part of the decade, with a target launchin the first half of the 2040’s

A Future IR/Optical/UV Telescope Optimized for Observing Habitable
Exoplanets and General Astrophysics
IR/O/UV Telescope Characteristics•~6 m off-axis inscribed diameter provides
robust sample of ~25 spectra of potentially
habitable planets, and would betransformative for general astrophysics•

Estimated cost: 11B$•

Target launch: first half of 2040’s

The scientific goals of this mission, when achieved, have the potential tochange the way that we as humans view our place in the Universe
With sufficient ambition, we are poised to make this transformational stepThis is a quest at the technical forefront, and of an ambitious scale that only
NASA can undertake, and where the U.S. is uniquely situated to leadGround Medium/Large Program Overview
Enabling and Realizing Major Observatories
MREFC Observatories
Federal Investment in U.S. ELTs for community access
CMB-S4 (~equal share NSF/DOE)
ngVLA Studies and Prototyping
Review
2022

ngVLA Construction
2032

Sustaining Programs
Enhancements to Astronomy Mid-scale Programs
Endorsements for Programs in NSF/PHYS
Technology Development for Future Gravitational Wave Observatories
The IceCube-Generation 2 High Energy Neutrino Observatory

NSF Funding for Major Research Facilities
Astronomy frontiers have been
driven by new observatories
Construction costs have been borneby MREFC
Operations costs then transfer to
ASTThis is not sustainable
Recommendation: The NSF should develop a sustainable plan forsupporting the operations and maintenance costs of its astronomical
facilities, while preserving an appropriate balance with funding essential
scientific foundations and the remainder of the NSF AST portfolio. The
addition of new MREFC facilities should be contingent on implementationof this plan

U.S. Extremely Large Telescope Program

Thirty Meter Telescope

Giant Magellan Telescope

The scientific potential of 20-40m optical-infrared telescopes is vast•

resolution of 0.01-0.02 arcsec with adaptive optics
1-2 au @ 100 pc, 0.8-1.6 pc @ Virgo cluster, 60-120 pc @ z=2.5 (!)•

36-81x gain for point sources over 10-m telescopes (scales as D4)•

immense range of scientific goals
detection, imaging, spectroscopy of rocky planets, exoplanet atmospheres,protoplanetary disks; high-z supernovae and GRBs, cosmologicalyardsticks; spectroscopy of faint JWST sources; spectra of CGM/IGM,
stellar fossil records of Galaxy, …

The combination of TMT, GMT, and NOIRLab (for community and science
support) would provide the U.S. community with essential access to thesetransformative capabilities

US-ELT Program
Recommendation: The NSF should achieve a federal investment equal to at least 50
percent time for the U.S. community in at least one and ideally both of the two
extremely large telescope projects – the Giant Magellan Telescope and the Thirty
Meter Telescope, with a target level of at least 25% of the time on each telescope. Ifboth projects are viable, then that time should be distributed across the two proposed
telescopes. If only one project proves to be viable, the NSF should aim to achieve alarger fraction of the time, in proportion to its share of the costs and up to a maximumof 50 percent

Participation in both projects is the optimal outcome• full-sky access• maximizes public nights available (~180/yr total)• exploit complementary instrumentation

If circumstances preclude participation of one observatory (financial, site
availability) goal should be to obtain as large a share on the other asavailable
This is the survey’s top priority MREFC recommendation due to thetimeliness and transformative potential

US-ELT Program: Decision Rules
Prior to major investment by the NSF, a review must determine that:•

The projects have demonstrated financial viability with agreed-uponcommitments from partners for all necessary capital and operations funds,
pending only NSF investment•

A final site selection has been made in the case of the TMT•

A public share of telescope time (run through the NSF’s NOIRLab) roughly
equivalent to the NSF’s share of total federal investment of construction
and operations expenses•

Development of a management plan and governance structure for the joint
project, including the relevant observatory corporations and the NSF

Success of both projects at the levels presented to the survey represents an
NSF investment of 1.8 B$*, leveraging private and international investmentsof 3.6 B$, bringing these transformative observatories on-line early in the2030’s*Based on TRACE evaluation

The Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4 Observatory

CMB-S4 builds on the foundation of decades of CMB measurements totake a major leap, pushing CMB science to the next level
Scientific goals
B-mode CMB polarization signatures ofprimordial gravitational waves and inflation
Maps 50% sky, every other day from 0.1- 1
cm with unprecedented sensitivity
Broad science including systematic time
domain science
CMB-S4 consists of a systematically planned suite of facilities in Antarctica and Chile
designed to sample a wide range of independent frequencies, and probe a
combination of large and small angular scales

The Next Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA)
The ngVLA presented to the survey is a very ambitious project•

Estimated cost $3.2B (75% NSF, 25% foreign contribution TBD);
operations >$100M/yr•

Up to 224 antennas arrayed across North America; operates from 1.2 116 GHz

Astro2020 concluded that the project scope and design need further
development before a review determines the scope is appropriate, and before
proceeding to construction
Recommendation: The NSF should proceed with a program to supportscience design, development, cost studies, and antenna prototyping for the
Next Generation Very Large Array. After completion of the studies, NSF should
convene a review to assess the project’s readiness and available budget andproceed with construction if possible.

NSF Mid-Scale Program BackgroundMid-scale (4 – 100 M$) competed programs harness the creativity of thecommunity and fuel innovation
A broad, balanced scientific program demands expansion of opportunities at
the mid-scale to fulfill strategic needs and harness innovations
Recommendation: The NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences (AST) should create
three tracks within the AST Mid-Scale Innovations Program and within (its share of) the
NSF-wide Mid-Scale Research Infrastructure Program. The first track should be forregularly competed, open calls, the second track should solicit proposals in strategically
identified priority areas, and the third should invite ideas for upgrading and developing
new instrumentation on existing facilities. All tracks should solicit proposals broadly
enough to ensure healthy competition.

Technology Development for Future Ground-based
Gravitational Wave Observatories

Gravitational wave detection is one of the most exciting and expanding
scientific frontiers impacting central questions in astronomy•

Directly relevant to two Astro2020 priority areas: New Windows on the Dynamic
Universe, Hidden Drivers of Galaxy Formation

More advanced detectors in the current LIGO facility (beyond A+) andplanning for future generation facilities such as Cosmic Explorer are essential

Conclusion: … Continuous technology development will be needed thisdecade for next generation detectors like Cosmic Explorer. Thesedevelopments will also be of benefit to the astrophysical reach of current
facilities.

IceCube-Generation 2 Neutrino Observatory

IceCube at South Pole detects 100 TeV – 10 PeV cosmic neutrinos
Upgrade to Generation-2 observatory will add detector elements and a radioarray to increase sensitivity (5x), detection rate (10x), and energy range (to1000 PeV)•

resolve diffuse (currently) cosmic neutrino background•

localize, identify individual astrophysical sources•

coordinated multi-messenger observations

Conclusion: The IceCube-Generation 2 neutrino observatory would provide
significantly enhanced capabilities for detecting high-energy neutrinos, including theability to resolve the bright, hard-spectrum TeV-PeV neutrino background into discrete
sources. Its capabilities are important for achieving key scientific objectives of thissurveyConsistency with Budget Guidance
Agency budgets projected forward are uncertain
We planned our program to be within the optimistic scenarios provided by
the agencies (time averaged)
The program we set forth allows for future opportunities
We live in exciting times for astronomy and astrophysics. Amazing
scientific opportunities lie in front of us that strongly motivate increased
investment in the futurenap.edu/astro2020
www.nap.edu/26141

日本でこれができるか？
• 学術会議が持つ性格・役割はかなり違う• 「日本学術会議の役割は、主に以下の4つです。
• 政府・社会に対して日本の科学者の意見を直接提言• 市民社会との対話を通じて科学への理解を深める• 地域社会の学術振興や学協会の機能強化に貢献• 日本を代表するアカデミーとして国際学術交流を推進」• 省庁が関わる仕組みがない• 文科省は自前で委員会を作る• 予算に結びつくプロセスにならない• マスタープランはなくなってしまい、学術フロンティアに結びつかない• 日本独自のモデルが必要

Blueprint for P5 process
Preliminary timeline•

Form panel by early Fall

Put Captions Here

Process to select a chair•• Call for nominations for P5 members in early• Well respected• Panel members wear a community hat•• Understanding of the agencies and how they work
• Experience with both universities and labs, andHold hybrid in-person/virtual townhalls in Fall 2022

• Aim for further community input and further

projects

information on potential future projects• Responsible• Opportunity for each panel member to start• No bias or major project/institution in the race –with equal footing covering all frontiers

wears a “big hat” for the good of the whole field• Helps people to work together

Deliberations Winter/Spring 2023

• Will see the program through and able to follow up• Will provide ample opportunity for further

after the report.

community input•

Developed a set of criteria/attributes• Broad understanding of the field scientificallyAug 2022•

JoAnne Hewett, HEPAP chair

Aim for report late Spring/Early Summer 2023 for
HEPAP to approve and submit to DOE/NSF•

Agreement between DOE, NSF, HEPAP Chair

4

Put Captions Here

Hitoshi Murayama•

MacAdams Professor of Physics at the University ofCalifornia, Berkeley
JoAnne Hewett, HEPAP chair•

Faculty Senior Staff at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab•

University Professor, Kavli Institute for the Physics andMathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo• Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences• Fellow, American Association for the
Advancement of Science• Fellow, American Physical Society

•
•
•
•
•

Humboldt Research Prize
Breakthrough Prize (KamLAND)
Yukawa Commemoration Prize
Sloan Research Fellowship
Served on SLAC Policy Committee, HEPAP &subpanels, Fermilab Physics Advisory Committee,
CERN Scientific Policy Committee, CEPC/SppC
International Advisory Committee

JoAnne Hewett, HEPAP chair

5

US Congress

仕組み

予算

NASA
NSF

資金

National ResearchCouncilNational Academyof ScienceschargeBoard ofPhysics and Astronomy

DOE
Steering Committee

ReportPeer review

Reports, recommendations

Panel 1Panel 2....

White papers, talks, town hall discussions

community

Panel 13