VIEWPOINT

2023

R E I N V I G O R AT I N G
ENTERPRISE RISKMANAGEMENT
How to strengthen organizational
resilience & avoid pitfalls

AUTHORS
Marcus Beard

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has been

Tom Teixeira

regarded for three decades as a vital practice

Ben Hansen

for navigating the broad spectrum of risk facedby an organization and ensuring the right balanceis achieved between risk mitigation, transfer, andretention. Most transport and mobility companies
have captured a register of enterprise risks, but few
successfully embed and integrate ERM into their ways
of working in a way that delivers real and sustained
value. In this Viewpoint, we explore whether traditional
approaches to ERM are still sufficient to support
effective strategic decision-making and share a morerisk-intelligent, forward-looking, and maturity-driven
approach that can add value.

Kerri McGowan

ARTHUR D. LITTLE

VIEWPOINTERM AS WE K NOW ITEnterprise risk management is a strategic
business discipline. It addresses an organization’s
full spectrum of risks and manages their

M A N Y O R G A N I Z AT I O N S
H AV E A R E A S O N A B LY
M AT U R E E R M S Y S T E M
IN PL ACE

combined impact via an enterprise-level risk
profile, which supports the organization as
it works to achieve its objectives. The term
“enterprise-level” typically refers to the corporatetier, where risks are managed and expressed
through the lens of a corporate risk appetite;these risks are neither compartmentalized nor
tackled in isolation on a project or discipline level.
Thus, establishing an interrelated enterpriselevel risk profile is essential to understandthe potential risks of failing to meet strategic
objectives, and to gain a competitive advantage
in a rapidly changing business environment.
ERM has existed as both a concept and discipline
since the early 1990s; consequently, manyorganizations have a reasonably mature ERM
system in place, which usually consists of:- An overall risk management policy- An overall framework to support top-down/bottom-up risk management processes-

The inherent challenge
A mature ERM system needs to accommodate
the different types of risks typically faced bylarge, diverse, and complex organizations. In
our experience, a typical enterprise risk profile
consists of risks across five broad categories(see Figure 1).
In practice, the different types of risks shownin Figure 1 are managed and controlled very
differently. In several cases, there are externalrisks that cannot be controlled at all, and manyare interrelated and correlated at different
levels and in distinct ways. For example, it isinherently challenging to design an ERM systemthat caters for both broad strategic risks, suchas beginning operations in a new geography,
and isolated operational risks, such as technicalasset degradation. The characteristics of theseA central enterprise risk registerrisks and their controls are completely different

and designated risk representatives

and yet both are of interest at the enterprise- Managers responsible for reportinglevel as they can have a material impact on the

Figure 1. Fiveoncategories
of registers
enterprise risk corporation.
risk and updating risk
Figure 1. Five categories of enterprise risk
Enterprise risk — a risk that cansignificantly impact the achievementof strategic objectives:
External enterprise risks — associated with the wider local,
regional & global environment that the organization will
have little or no control (e.g., increasing rates of inflation)

Operational or project risks —associated with specific project,program, business unit, orfunction, arising from thedesign, management, or
performance of businessprocesses, systems, people,
or external events

Operational & project risks

1

Strategic enterprise risks — emerge from strategic decisions
by the board, executive & senior management (e.g., a decision
to conduct business in a new country)

Aggregate

Pervasive enterprise risks — “business as usual” risks that cut
across organization & usually unavoidable (e.g., the competencyof employees)

Aggregate

Localized enterprise risks — emerge from specific project,program, business unit, department, or function & often an
aggregation of multiple individual projects or operational risks(e.g., a major train accident)

Escalate

Operational/project enterprise risks — risks with high-enoughpotential impact to materially impact entire organization(e.g., ground subsistence at a specific building site)

2

3

4

5

Source: Arthur D. Little

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Source: Arthur D. Little

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ARTHUR D. LITTLE

VIEWPOINT

Therefore, designing and implementing an

An analysis of the root cause of recent major rail

effective ERM approach poses fundamental

accidents highlights this problem effectively.

challenges, including:

The most common reasons for rail accidents- Accounting for complexity and diversity- Driving useful management engagementin the last 10 years relate to human error andand action- Keeping pace with changes- Providing confidence in building
an overall strategy

mechanical failure. Most transport organizations
recognize safety-critical asset management andthe competency of safety-critical employees as
key enterprise risks, but simply recording theserisks in an ERM system does little to alert senior
management to a potential issue that could leadto a major accident.

SO WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

In summary, current approaches typically fall

Our experience with transport and mobility

1. Large organizations’ view of risk is often

companies shows that executives generally
appreciate and understand the basics of ERM andthe value it can add. Yet, it is commonly the casethat the corporate view of risk, usually held in anenterprise risk register, neither aligns well withactual risks nor does it keep up with the pace atwhich these risks change. Indeed, the enterpriseview of risk often lags reality, reducing the valueof the entire system over time to a repository ofstatic and backward-looking information about
well-known risks. Such an outdated resourcecannot drive management action. In the earlydays of ERM, building a register was essential
and considered an added value as it provided
a snapshot view of risk that was previously
unavailable. But, over time, incremental updates

short in three key ways:

outdated:- Outdated and static registers. Enterpriserisk registers often stagnate, since risks
that are material to the organization
do not change significantly and rapidly.
As such, the register is only reviewed
periodically (sometimes annually) witha light touch. While aspects of certain
business-as-usual (BAU) risks may berelatively static, the causes of risk eventsand the effectiveness of critical controls
can change rapidly in response to changes
in context.

- Poor engagement. ERM is often perceived

as a separate activity for the risk champion

to such registers are of decreasing value and it

or risk manager tasked to report risks at

is common for things to stagnate.

the executive or board level, rather than

Many organizations, despite having wellestablished ERM systems, find they can becaught unprepared by unexpected loss events.
The system simply is unable to keep pace withsudden emergences of risk that appear at highvelocity or from less predictable causes. Indeed,
we often observe executive-level clients discussing
issues of concern that may not be captured properly
or at all in the ERM system, despite expending
extensive effort and resources to manage thatthe day-to-day actions of individuals.
Indeed, some organizations no longer use
the term “enterprise risk management,”
preferring to focus instead merely on “riskmanagement,” which better encompasses
the need to manage risk from the operatinglevel all the way to the boardroom. In
this construct, “enterprise risks” aresimply those risks with potential to cause
business-wide damage.

system. It is easier for them to discuss lists ofconcerning “issues,” rather than administer
the addition of these into what has become anincreasingly complex and stagnant register.

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VIEWPOINT

2. Large organizations’ view of risk is often

to what risks are the most urgent anddisconnected from the business and thehave the highest potential for loss. Often,

way it operates:organizations do not have a risk-based- The wrong risks. Top risks are often

allocated based on judgment, or what
has occurred historically, either in theorganization or elsewhere. This may notreflect the latest operating internal orexternal environment.

- Poor integration and alignment.

Organizations can struggle to align their
ERM approach with more “working level”
bottom-up risk management; these canbecome disconnected with poor escalationof risk upward.

- Failure to connect to emerging risks.

Organizations find it difficult to identify
emerging risks and, even more so, how
to practically connect these to the ERM
framework to drive useful insights andmanagement response. This means risks
that may be on the distant horizon often
materialize before they are properly
captured with risk-mitigation strategies
in place.

approach to assurance, meaning large
amounts of effort and resources are
spent on assurance activities that deliver
relatively little value.

- Lack of appropriate data or metrics.

Organizations can struggle to build an
evidence-based approach that provides
the right mix of lagging and leading
indicators for risk and just as importantly— a measure of the effectiveness ofcontrols for those risks.

CHALLENGING THE
CURRENT APPROACHES
We suggest executives ask themselves thefollowing questions to help them start getting
ERM back on track:
1. Are we confident our critical controls are
actually effective?
2. Are we confident we have visibility at alllevels of the organization?

- Poor aggregation of total risk exposure. It

3. Does our organizational culture and capability

is often unclear how the complex web of

ensure problems/potential issues are reported

underlying operational and project risks

before it is too late, and are we always honest

faced by a large organization interacts. In

about our risks?

many cases, their aggregate impact on thewhole enterprise cannot be determined.

4. Do we understand how changes in context
affect our risk exposure?

3. Risk management efforts do not focus on
the effectiveness of critical controls:- Critical controls. It is rarely clear which

Are we confident our critical controls are
actually effective?

of the many controls for the top risks are

Determining the effectiveness of a control canactually critical (i.e., those whose failure

be difficult and requires careful judgment of thewould likely result in significant corporate

balance between risk and benefit (see Figure

damage). It is therefore impossible to2). The overall effectiveness of the control isassure well-controlled risk.

a combination of aspects of its design and its- Misaligned assurance and risk. Risk-based
assurance involves focusing assurance

activity on the highest inherent risks anorganization faces, so critical controls
can be corrected or improved according

REINVIGORATING ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT

implementation, which in practice are difficult
to measure and quantify. A view of control
effectiveness can be formed from various
methods of assurance (e.g., audits, monitoring,
reviews, and deep dives across the three linesof defense [see sidebar on next page]).

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ARTHUR D. LITTLE

VIEWPOINT

Our recent work in the rail industry has shown

Three lines of defensethat it is common to make assumptions about
the effectiveness of risk controls, particularly

The three lines of defense is a risk
management framework commonly usedby organizations to identify, assess, andthose that have been in place for some time, withthe focus of risk management being on recording
and reporting events. This is perhaps inevitable,

manage risk:
1. First line of defense — the day-to-day
management of risks by individuals
directly responsible for the activities,
processes, and controls within theas judging the effectiveness of a risk control canbe time-consuming, subjective, and difficult.
However, having confidence in the effectivenessof critical risk controls is critical to prevent
loss, ensure compliance, secure stakeholder

organization.

trust, protect reputation, preserve business2. Second line of defense — includes thecontinuity, and make decisions that are rightoversight functions that ensure policies,

for the business. A focus on control effectivenessprocedures, and controls are in placeprovides assurance that your organization isand effective at managing risk. The

actually controlling risk within appetite.

second line also monitors the first line
and provides guidance.

Shifting the focus from “risk level” to “control
effectiveness” is highly beneficial. This means

3. Third line of defense — an independent

seeking confidence that critical controls arefunction that provides assurance to theadequate, in place, and working. This is not aboard by evaluating the effectivenessone-off task; critical controls are effective whenof the first two lines and making

the organization takes the following actions:recommendations as required.

1. Ensures all lines are risk-based and working
well, and critical controls are known

However, it is difficult to determine whether theright controls have been selected in the first

2. Defines what it means for a control to beeffective with defined performance criteria

place, as such decisions were often taken in
the past and are rarely revisited. Effectiveness3. Establishes a comprehensive set of indicatorsthat reveal control deficiencies

covering control selection and strategy leads
to multiple existential questions around risk

4. Achieves high levels of competence inFigure 2. The
control-effectivenessacceptanceprinciples, organizational risk equationall aspects of risk management
appetite, required levels of safety integrity,and the purpose of risk management.

5. Confirms that escalation processes areworking wellFigure 2. The control-effectiveness equation

Controlstrategy(selection,
purpose &coverage)Control effectiveness

Designeffectiveness
Alignment withcorporate risk
appetite

Implementation
effectiveness

Risk
reduction

Overalleffectiveness

What is areasonable levelof evidence(or assurance)that a control
is effective?

Source: Arthur D. Little

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VIEWPOINT

6. Takes actions to respond to weaknesses
is working well
7. Understands risk appetite and judging
control effectiveness
Are we confident we have visibility
at all levels?
Executives of large companies face a delicate
balancing act. On one hand, they require a
simplified, consolidated view of risk thatencompasses the entire organization. This highlevel perspective is crucial for making strategic
decisions and maintaining a clear understanding

2. Developing a comprehensive risk taxonomy
supported by escalation and aggregation
principles to systematically identify all risksfacing an organization and support escalation
and aggregation of common risks to theenterprise level for an improved top-downview.
3. Developing consistent risk assessment
methodologies, criteria, metrics, andreporting mechanisms. Standardization
across an organization promotes consistency
and comparability when evaluating risks.
4. Driving awareness of enterprise issuesof overall exposure. On the other hand, executives

across the organization to ensure projectneed enough granular detail to instill confidence

and operational teams consider the impactthat risks are being managed properly at theof their specific risks on the enterprise as aoperational level. Striking this balance is not easy

whole, not just their area of responsibility.

but ensures executives can steer the organization

This can be achieved by facilitating

effectively without being overwhelmed by minutiae.

coordination between the ERM teams andThis requires integrating a top-down ERM approach

operational/project teams (e.g., attendees

and a traditional bottom-up project or operationalfrom both functions in a risk assessment

approach, which is challenging for large diverse

workshop) and fostering improved riskorganizations. Large organizations often havecommunication across the organization

multiple business units, departments, andto enhance overall risk awareness.

projects that operate independently, often with
their own risk management processes, systems,
and stakeholders. An integrated approach isparticularly challenging as it requires high levelsof coordination and collaboration. In addition,enterprise-level risks often involve broader
strategic considerations, while operational or
project risks are more specific to individual
projects or divisions. Integrating the two requires
translating project and operational risks into thelanguage and context of enterprise risks.

Does our organizational culture & capability
ensure issues are reported?
An ERM system, framework, and tools is all welland good, but their effectiveness depends on
the leadership, competency, commitment, andengagement of the organization’s employeeswith respect to risk. Many organizations
have developed apparently sophisticatedrisk management processes, but they failin implementation because employees lack

Improving alignment and increasing top-down

competency with regards to identifying,visibility is a process of continuous improvement

articulating, and managing risks and oftenwith relatively few quick wins. Steps organizations

consider risk to not be part of their day job. This is

can take include:

clearly a dangerous assumption, as risk controls

1. Monitoring risk drivers through leading key risk
indicators (KRIs) and lagging key performanceindicators (KPIs) that can be tracked
across operations and projects. This allows

have to be implemented at the sharper end of abusiness. Another problem is that risk is seen asa side activity to other line management duties,
which is fundamentally flawed.

organizations to proactively identify trends
and patterns that may signal emerging threats.

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VIEWPOINT

Like any aspect of business, strengthening the risk

Organizations must realize that managing risk isculture and competency within an organization

not a separate siloed activity. It is embedded inrequires a concerted effort and commitment fromevery decision that is made by anyone, anywhere

all levels of the organization (including the very top).

in the business. Risk “experts” (as members of the

The steps organizations can take include:

risk team) are there to support and advise, butthey do not manage the risk.

1. Make everyone a risk manager. The
importance of risk management needs to be
integrated into day-to-day decision-making.
Strong leadership commitment is crucial for

Do we understand how changes in context
affect our risk exposure?

shaping and promoting a positive risk culture.

In risk management, a change in context is any

2. Provide comprehensive training programs.

change to the circumstances that comprise andThis enhances risk awareness and knowledge
among employees; incorporate individual
scorecards and renumeration models to trackprogress and incentivize improvement.

surround the organization. Changes in context canbe either internally driven, such as a significant
internal transformation, or externally driven, suchas a change in local regulations. Figure 3 showssome typical external and internal context changes

3. Establish clear lines of responsibility

that could affect a large transport organization

and accountability. Define roles and(typically identified through a horizon-scanningresponsibilities for key stakeholders whenprocess). Changes in context add significant

it comes to risk management.

complexity to ERM because registers must be

4. Embed risk considerations into project

manually updated after an upcoming change

planning, performance evaluations,has become apparent or occurred. For the large

and all decision-making processes. Risk

and complex risk registers typically seen in

management should be an integral part oforganizations with mature risk management

the organization’s systems and procedures.

systems, it is often not clear how to do this

5. Promote collaboration and cross-functional
engagement in risk management. Encourage
teams from different departments to work
together to assess risks, share best practices,

efficiently, as multiple correlated risks are affected.
This seriously devalues the entire process of risk
management, as it is not evident how risk exposure
is affected by the change, and it becomes anadministrative exercise rather than one that serves

developcontrols. context for a large transport
Figure 3. Internalandvs.
external
the needs of the business.
organization
Figure 3. Internal vs. external context for a large transport organization

External context

Internal context

Regulatory change

Economic
disruption

Shift incompetition

Environmental
concerns

Technologicaldisruption

Pandemic

TechnologicalupgradesOrganizational
restructuring

Workforce training& development

Fleet expansion
or modernization

Process change/
optimization

High employee
turnoverSource: Arthur D. Little

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Source: Arthur D. Little

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ARTHUR D. LITTLE

VIEWPOINT

THE ERM SYSTEM OF
THE FUTURE WILL NEEDTO UTILIZE EMERGINGTECHNOLOGIES LIKEAI AND NLPThis can save considerable time and effort in data
entry, ensuring the risk registers remain up todate and reflective of the current risk landscape.
Furthermore, AI can identify patterns and uncoverhidden insights from an organization’s risk
information and automate the generation of risk
reports to present this information. This saves
time and effort in compiling risk reports, and by

As discussed throughout this Viewpoint,
enterprise risk is complex, interconnected, andincreasingly difficult to manage in a way thatbalances value and effort. Standard tables andlists fail to accommodate the challenges ofpresenting information in a visually appealing
and easily understandable manner in almost realtime as internal and external context changes,
AI-powered reporting and risk visualization enable
more informed decision-making, based on the

managing risk effectively. The ERM system oflatest information.

the future will therefore need to utilize emerging

While using technology like AI and NLP to improve

technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) andenterprise risk management can offer numerous

natural language processing (NLP), which canbenefits, an organization looking to implement

much more readily work with poorly structured

a solution of this nature should be mindful ofdata at much higher speed and with lower effort.

potential challenges:

An ERM approach enhanced by AI and associated- Data quality and accuracy. AI and NLP

technologies goes beyond standard technology
solutions (usually a governance, risk, andcompliance system) seen in most organizations,moving businesses away from a static view ofrisks to a “push of the button,” up-to-date viewof risks — allowing relevant risks to be instantly
updated, reports to be complied as required, andrisks to be targeted, as necessary. AI and NLP
approaches are highly synergistic with horizon
scanning and can enhance various parts of theprocess with automated data collection andprocessing, automated identification and (realtime) updates of relevant risks, topic and trend
detection, predictive insights, and real-timemonitoring/alerts.

models rely heavily on high-quality andaccurate data for machine learning. If data
used to train these models is incomplete,
outdated, or biased, it can lead to incorrect
insights and therefore poor decisions. AI
algorithms can also inherit bias present in
the data they are trained on, which could
unfairly impact or prioritize certain types ofrisks. Developing an accurate and robust initial
data set for training should be the first stepfor any organization looking to implement an
AI solution for risk management; however, thiscan be a time-consuming and costly process.
Utilizing unsupervised AI can still add value
quickly, but organizations should be mindful

For example, NLP algorithms enable AI systemsof potential problems with this method.

to understand and extract relevant information- Overreliance on technology. Relying solely

from unstructured data sources, such as reports,
documents, and textual data. This capability
can be particularly valuable for updating andmaintaining risk registers in response to changes
in context by identifying new risks, updating
existing risk profiles, and populating risk registers
with accurate and timely information.

REINVIGORATING ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENTon AI and NLP systems for risk management
can lead to a disconnect between humanjudgment and automated insights. Humanexpertise is still crucial in understanding
the context and nuances that may not be
accurately captured by algorithms.

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ARTHUR D. LITTLE

VIEWPOINT- New risk. Introducing AI and NLP solutions

Figure 4 shows illustrative examples of how

introduces new risks that may not bea technology-driven ERM approach could

immediately apparent. These could include

transform how an organization manages risk.

technical glitches, model vulnerabilities toadversarial attacks, issues with data privacy
and security, and unintended outputs due tocomplex interactions within the system.

Enhancing ERM for a major rail operator
A leading transport operator in Asia worked

that the bottom-up risk management processes

with ADL to develop an enhanced ERM

that fed key risk information upward were also

framework to improve the quality of risk

updated to drive closer alignment between

information visible to executives and ensure t

ERM and operational/project risk management

hey are not “caught out” by an event. A smaller

and ensure high-quality and robust risk

set of principal risks were developed to provide

information was incorporated into the top-

a top-down view of the risk profile, and bespoke

down view. We achieved this by standardizing

comprehensive control-effectiveness criteria

risk definitions, processes, and assessment

were created to shift the focus of risk

criteria across the organization; developing

management from reporting to control

a centralized risk taxonomy; supporting

effectiveness for each principal risk. Thisescalation and aggregation principles; andinformation was summarized in a series ofbuilding a competency framework withexecutive dashboards. For the executive

accompanying training/awareness modules todashboards to work effectively, it was essential

improve the risk culture across the organization.

Figure 4. AI could transform relationship with risk
Figure 4. AI could transform relationship with risk

MANPOWER

Massive reduction in manual
effort to search risk data &draw connections

COLLABORATIVE

People use risk system toacquire relevant information
through smart search and
NLP dashboards

CONNECTED

Objects (causes, risks, controls)
are all connected, providing
previously unknown level of
insights & views of risk plus
escalation & aggregation“What are the key controls
related to topics aroundpassenger dissatisfaction?”“Show me the top 10 risks
through all BUs related toresources and competence.”“Provide me a summaryof controls related totrain-accident risk.”“What risks have asset
management–related
topics as a control?”“How has the enterprise riskchanged due to changes
in BU risk registers?”“What are the main changes
in our risk profile sincelast month?”

Source:D.D.
LittleSource:Arthur
Arthur
LittleREINVIGORATING ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT

Source: Arthur D. Little

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VIEWPOINT

CONCLUSIONAN HONEST APPROACH
TO RISK MANAGEMENTE R M I S B E C O M I N G A N E X T R E M E LY H I G H - E F F O R T
A N D R E S O U R C E - I N T E N S I V E A C T I V I T Y T H AT A D D S
D I M I N I S H I N G VA L U EManaging enterprise risk effectively requires strong leadershipcommitment and alignment, along with an honest approach thatallows challenging the status quo. Risk expertise is not centered on a
few individuals but rather is dispersed through people at all levels, inall departments, and in the information scattered in documents anddatabases throughout the organization. Traditional ERM approaches
centered around registers and slow processes of escalation andreporting simply are unable to cope with the real complexity of risk.
Organizations become complacent, and as the ERM system becomescomplex over time, it can be difficult to challenge what already exists,or require so much effort to overhaul that it becomes a barrier toimprovement. The world doesn’t stop, and both internal and externalsources of threat evolve and are less predictable than ever.
Our experience shows ERM is becoming for many organizations an
extremely high-effort and resource-intensive activity that adds
diminishing value. Managing enterprise risk is the same thing as
managing the business — the two cannot be separated. To improve
the overall state of ERM effectiveness, senior leadership should
consider the following:

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VIEWPOINT

1

Shift the focus of the risk management effort away fromlists and tables to challenging the effectiveness of existing
key controls.

2

Carry out assurance on the most important controls to test
whether they are really working as expected, or whether otherforms of control have even been considered.

3

Develop an improved set of risk indicators fed by real, live data,balancing leading and lagging indicators.

4

Challenge yourself and each other to better understand theculture across the breadth and depth of your organization andensure the right level of competencies is in place; upskill andchange roles where required.

5

Constantly question whether risks are under control as partof day-to-day conversations.

6

Align top-down ERM processes with bottom-up project/
operational risk management processes.

7

Develop a simple horizon-scanning process to identify changes
in context that could affect the organization’s risk exposure —involve a wider group as required and make it interesting andengaging.

8

Fund proof-of-concept experiments using AI/NLP to see what
you can learn about risk, beyond what’s provided by your current
systems, leveraging larger sources of disparate data.

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