TPP as an enabler for the DDA?
And what new role for the WTO?
Matthias Helble
Senior Economist and Research Fellow
ADBI
10 November 2015

Contents• Main points of discussion: TPP vs DDA• Factors rendering DDA impossible• Factors facilitating success of TPP negotiations• Desirable outcomes of Ministerial Conference• New role of the WTO• Lessons learned from the United Nations

Doha Ministerial Declaration
Negotiations in 7 specific areas
Implementation
DisputeSettlement

Agriculture

Environment

WTO Rules

Services

IndustrialTariffs

Difficult issues in TPP negotiations
Sticking points in TPPMembers

Solution

Agriculture
Australia, New Zealand and(especially dairy and sugar) US vs. Canada and JapanIntellectual Property(esp. Length of dataprotection for biologics)

US vs. Australia

NAMA (automotives ROO)

Japan vs. Mexico andCanada

State-Owned Enterprises

US vs. Viet Nam andMalaysia

Labor standards

US vs. Viet Nam

Environmental safeguards(avoid overfishing anddeforestation)

Consession by US

Concessions by Viet Namand Malaysia

TPP Tariff Levels
All TPP members:

Bound

Applied MFN

Preferential rates

Links covered

132 (all)132 (all)

69Simple

15.17 %

4.02 %1.70 %Weighted

13.19 %

2.72 %

0.96 %Developing countries:
Bound

Applied MFN

Preferential rates (27)

Simple20.79 %

4.51 %

2.47 %

Weighted

19.27 %

3.59 %

1.13 %Developed TPP members:
Bound

Applied MFN

Preferential rates (42)Simple7.30 %

3.41 %

1.20 %

Weighted

4.68 %

2.16 %

0.85 %

Source: UNTRAINSDDA negotiations compared to theascent of Mt. Blanc«Like Horace de Saussure, [...] who organized the first
ascent to Mont Blanc, we have prepared ourselves forthis excursion. [...] Also, climbing the Mont Blanc canonly be achieved as a team endeavor. [...] The only way
to reach the top is understanding each others’ interestand limitations.»
Pascal Lamy, 21 July 2008

Why is the DDA so difficult?
1. Mountaineers with different visions:
Heterogeneity between and within members
2. Belonging to various rope teams: Multiplicity ofcoalitions with conflicting interests
3. Who should carry how much? Less than fullreciprocity
4. Icy conditions ahead: Difficult issues remainWhy is the DDA so difficult?
5. Why the fuss about Mt. Blanc? Globalization fatigue
and doubts about the gains
6. What about other summits? Other, more readily
available alternatives.
7. How to get the photographers to the summit?
Increasing complex communication.
8. Mountain guide’s energy is waning: The hegemonial
power is running out of steam.

“Universe” of Environmental Goods:
514 HS6 Codes
Saudi Arabia (S):291 HS

Friends (F):195 HS
Qatar (Q):
20 HS
Philippines (P):24 HS

Japan (J):90 HS

Singapore (Si): 91
HSShares in World Trade: 1995 vs. 2014
1995
ROW31%

2014
US16%

US13%

Japan
7%

Japan
5%

ROW
47%

EU32%Canada3%
EU43%

Canada3%

Source: UN COMTRADE
Note: Measured in importsWhy did the TPP negotiations succeed?
• One rope team with similar views:– Small group of countries– Coalition of the «willing»• Mountain guide(s) with clear vision:– US – Japan leadership– Asia pivotal for US interests• Closed negotiations

Shares in World Trade: 1995 vs.
Share in TPP trade in 2014
1995
ROW
31%

2014
US16%

Rest29%Japan
7%

Canada3%
EU43%

USA45%

CAN
15%

Source: UN COMTRADE
Note: Measured in imports

JPN11%

Declining US trade share with Asia…
100%90%80%70%
TPP (except US) Imports from
ROW

60%50%TPP (excl. US) Imports fromCHN/HKG

40%

TPP (excl. US) Import from US

30%

20%
10%0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: UN COMTRADETPP outcome as «inspiration» for Nairobi?
• Pro: TPP shows that compromise on difficult
issues can be achieved• Con: See list above
Desirable outcomes of Nairobi:• Call-off the research and end Doha Round• Environmental goods liberalization• Agree on new set of sectoral and plurilateraltalks

The Future Role of the WTO• Convening power (multilaterally and plurilaterally)• Standard setting• Ensuring transparency in trade policy: From passiveto active role
• Technical assistance (from delivery to coordination)• Research: From «why open up trade?» to «how toopen up trade?» (ex. health)• Lessons to be learned from United Nations?

Lessons from the United Nations• Very difficult to achieve consensus among all members.
• Extremely difficult to achieve binding commitments.
• The more complex the issue, the longer thenegotiations.
• The more unknowns, the less willing countries are tocommit.
• Increased participation of developing countries• Leadership needed• Flexible treaties more successful: Opt-in treaties easierto negotiate, ex. FCTC

Thank you very much for your attention

Matthias Helble
mhelble@adbi.org