1ὶᮌὶฟ䛾୍㐃䛾㐣⛬䛻ᇶ䛵䛟䚸ὶᮌὶฟ⤫ྜ≀⌮䝰䝕䝹䛾ᵓ⠏
2016ᖺᮾ໭࣭໭ᾏ㐨㇦㞵ᒾᡭ┴ᑠᮏᕝ࡛ࡢㄪᰝᮾ໭኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔ᕤᏛ◊✲⛉ᑠ᳃ ኱㍜

2022/12/02 ௧࿴4ᖺᗘἙᕝ᝟ሗ䝅䞁䝫䝆䜴䝮 ◊✲ຓᡂㅮ₇⅏ᐖ஦౛ ࠥ㏆ᖺ䛻䛚䛡䜛඲ᅜ䛾ὶᮌ⿕ᐖࠥ

2㏆ᖺ䛻䛚䛡䜛඲ᅜ䛾ὶᮌ⿕ᐖᗈᓥ┴ᗈᓥᕷᏳబ໭༊
2018ᖺ7᭶す᪥ᮏ㇦㞵Ἃὶᕝ䞉ཌูᕝὶᇦ
2003ᖺྎ㢼10ྕὶᮌ⿕ᐖ䜢᝿ᐃ䛧䛯ὶᇦ⟶⌮䛜ᚲせhttp://www.boͲsai.co.jp/⚟ᒸ┴ᑎෆ䝎䝮
2017ᖺ஑ᕞ໭㒊㇦㞵㈓Ỉụ䜈䛾኱㔞䛾ὶᮌὶධ

http://mizu.bosai.go.jp/ྛὶᇦ䛾ὶᮌὶฟ≉ᛶ䛾ᢕᥱ㛗㔝┴〈ⰼ䝎䝮ὥỈྤ䝀䞊䝖䛾㞀ᐖ

http://www.mlit.go.jp/http://www.mlit.go.jp/ᒾᡭ┴ᒾἨ⏫
2016ᖺྎ㢼10ྕὶᮌ䛜ὶᇦෆ䛷ᯝ䛯䛩ᙺ๭

3㈇䛾ഃ㠃

ṇ䛾ഃ㠃
䞉ῡ℩䛾ᙧᡂ
䞉ὶୗ䛩䜛᭷ᶵ≀䛾ᤕᤊ䞉ศゎ䛻క䛖᭷ᶵ≀䛾⏕⏘䞉ᅵ▼ὶ䛻ΰ䛨䜚ᘓ㐀≀䜢◚ቯ䞉䝎䝮䛾ྲྀỈ㞀ᐖ䞉⯪⯧䛾㐠⯟㞀ᐖ

http://www.boͲsai.co.jp/https://iyashi.midb.jp/ὶᮌ䛿ᵝ䚻䛺ศ㔝䛸」㞧䛻㛵ಀ

4◊✲⫼ᬒ ୺䛺ὶᮌ䛾Ⓨ⏕※9 ఖ഍෶୫9 ஌௔઱঵
9 Ⴖଈ

ⰾ㈡䜙䠄㻞㻜㻜㻢䠅⏕≀ⓗ䞉≀⌮ⓗ䞉ேⅭⓗせᅉ9 ࿿એടശള়৓प੿৷

9 ௯౵᪥ᮏ䛾᳃ᯘ䛾⌧≧૴਽ऋ৅েᆅ⌫௒஭䠄㻞㻜㻜㻢䠅㻡㻜㻜㻜

6 ᅵ▼ὶ䛾Ⓨ⏕䛻క䛖ὶᮌὶฟ䛜⅏ᐖ䜢ᣑ኱௒ᚋ䠈ὶᮌ䛜Ⓨ⏕䛧䜔䛩䛟䛺䜛䠛

㻠㻜㻜㻜
㻟㻜㻜㻜

6 ὶᮌ䛾Ⓨ⏕6 ᳃ᯘෆ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䞉෌⛣ື
6 Ἑᕝ䛛䜙䛾ὶᮌ䛾ὶฟ㻞㻜㻜㻜㻝㻜㻜㻜㻜㻿㻠㻝㻿㻠㻢㻿㻡㻝㻿㻢㻝㻴㻞㻴㻣㻴㻝㻠᳃ᯘ⵳✚㔞䠄×106m3䠅

6 ᳃ᯘ㈨※㔞䛿Ᏻᐃ䠃᳃ᯘ⵳✚㔞䛿ቑຍ
6 ᯘᴗ䛾⾶㏥➼䛛䜙᳃ᯘ䛾Ⲩᗫ䛜㐍⾜ᬮ໬䛻క䛖኱㞵䛾⃭໬䛸䛔䛖୍㐃䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䜢㏻䛨䛯⌮ゎ䛜㔜せ◊✲┠ⓗ᪤ ◊✲

56 Ⓨ⏕せᅉ䞉ὶฟ㐣⛬䛻㛵䛩䜛◊✲౛䠖Montgomery and Buffington (1993), West et al. (2011), RuizͲVillanueva et al.
(2014a), Thapthai and Komori et al. (2018), Scheip and Wegmann (2021)

6 ⏕ែ⣔䛻୚䛘䜛ᙳ㡪䛾◊✲౛䠖Prescott et al. (2002), Yan et al. (2006)䠈Seo et al.䠄2008䠅

6 ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䛻㛵䛩䜛◊✲౛䠖ΎỈ䠄2009䠅, Seo et al. (2012), Seo et al. (2015), ຓᕝ䞉ᑠ᳃ (2017)6 ྎ㢼䜔㇦㞵䛻䜘䜚Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯ὶᮌ䛾䝰䝙䝍䝸䞁䜾౛䠖Murakami et al. (2008), Steeb et al. (2017) , Rickli et al. (2018)9 ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾㔞ⓗኚ໬䜢ㄪᰝ䛧䠈᳃ᯘෆ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䞉෌⛣ື䜢䝰䝕䝹໬䛩䜛◊✲䛿䛺䛔¾ ሁ✚ὶᮌ䛾௒ᚋ䛾ὶฟ䛜ᠱᛕ䛥䜜䜛䛣䛸䛛䜙䜒䠈ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䞉෌⛣ື䛻㛵䛩䜛◊✲䛿㔜せ9 ㏻ᖖ᫬䛾Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞䛻㛵䛩䜛◊✲䛜ᑡ䛺䛔¾ὶᮌὶฟ䛾୍㐃䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾䝰䝕䝹໬

(Ruiz-Villanueva, 2016)6 ⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䜢ᐇ᪋䛧䚸ὶᮌὶฟ䝯䜹䝙䝈䝮䜢᫂䜙䛛䛻䛩䜛
6 ໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛚䜘䜃⟃ᚋᕝỈ⣔䜢ᑐ㇟䛻䚸䝰䝕䝹䜢ᵓ⠏䛩䜛6ὶᮌὶฟᐇែ䛾⌧ᆅㄪᰝ1) ྜ⏣᫂ᘯ, ᑠ᳃኱㍜, ᶓᒣග, ᒣᮏ㐨, ᳃⏣㝧, ᯈ಴೺ኴ, ᒣ⏣ṇ⫝ᕝὶᇦ䛾ᒣᆅ῱ὶ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚≉ᛶ䛻㛵䛩䜛◊✲.
Ἑᕝᢏ⾡ㄽᩥ㞟, 26, 2020, 557Ͳ562.
2) Sartsin PHAKDIMEK, Masashi NAKAMURA, Yuta ABE and Daisuke KOMORIThe Influence of Spatial Variation Soil Thickness and Rainfall on Shallow
Landslide Triggering PatternsᅵᮌᏛ఍ㄽᩥ㞟G(⎔ቃ), ༳ๅ୰.

ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ

2018ᖺす᪥ᮏ㇦㞵䛻䛶ᩳ㠃ᔂቯ䜔ᅵ▼ὶ䛻క䛖኱㔞䛾ὶᮌὶฟ䛜ぢ䜙䜜䛯ឡ፾┴すணᕷ䜢ὶ䜜䜛⫰ᕝ䛻ὶධ䛩䜛ᒣᆅ῱ὶ76 ◁㜵ሖሐ䜔㐨㊰䛺䛹䛾ேⅭᨵኚ䛜⾜䜟䜜䛶䛔䛺䛔ᆅⅬ䜢㑅ᐃ䛧䠈ㄪᰝ䜢ᐇ᪋
7 ㄪᰝᆅⅬ䛸䛭䛾ୖὶᇦ䛾᳜⏕䛿ᴫ䛽䠈䝇䜼䞉䝠䝜䜻᳜ᯘᆅ䠊7 䝏䝱䞊䝖䜔◁ᒾ䛜୺䛸䛺䜛⛛∗ᖏ䛷䛒䜛䠊ᅵ㉁䛿♟㉁◁䠊

6ㄪᰝᆅ࿘㎶䛾᳜⏕ᅗ8ㄪᰝ㡯┠䐳ὶᮌ䛾䝬䞊䜻䞁䜾⏝ḟ䛾ฟỈ䛷ὶฟ䛩䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛾䛒䜛ὶᮌ䛸❧ᮌ䛻䝬䞊䜻䞁䜾ὶᮌ䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂ఩⨨䠄㻳㻼㻿䜢౑ 䠅❧䞉ಽᮌ䛾ᶞ㱋䚸⬚㧗䛾ィὶᮌ䝎䝮䛾య✚䠄㻴㻘 㼃㻘㻌㻰䠅❧ᮌ䛾㧗䛥䛾ィ䐵ὶᮌ䝎䝮䛾య✚䛾ィ䐴ᶞ㱋䛾ィᡂ㛗㗽❧䞉ಽᮌ䛾ᶞ㱋ᗈⴥᶞ䛿㔪ⴥᶞ䛻ẚ䜉䛶ᡂ㛗㗽䛜ධ䜚䛵䜙䛔䝺䞊䝄䞊㊥㞳ィ䞉ὶᮌ䝎䝮䛾య✚䠄㻴㻘㻌㼃㻘㻌㻰䠅䞉❧ᮌ䛾㧗䛥䛾ィ

9

ㄪᰝᆅⅬB
ஏ఼ᶇ

⿕⅏๓෗┿
2009ᖺ4᭶᧜ᙳ⿕⅏ᚋ෗┿2018ᖺ7᭶11᪥᧜ᙳ⌮䛆ฟ඾䛇ᅜᅵᆅ

㝔

ㄪᰝᆅⅬB
ஏ఼ᶇ
ᆅⅬB

100 m

10

11

ㄪᰝᆅⅬB
ஏ఼ᶇ
ᆅⅬB

࠹Ծླྀ෨Ͷ଱੷ͪ͢ླྀ໨ୖ͹ྈ‫ླྀͲ؝‬໨ཱི͗໨ͶӀֽ͖ͮΕ଱੷͢ͱ͏Ζ͞ͳ͗Κ͖Ζ

ୖ৏Ͷླྀ໨͗଱੷
(ྈ‫͖؝‬Δ͹ࣾ໚๊շͶΓΖ΍͹͖?)ᶞ㱋䞉⬚㧗┤ᚄ㻞㻡

12ࢧࣥࣉࣝ㸸❧ᮌ91ᮏ㸦ෆࠊ㔪ⴥᶞ85ᮏ㸧ࠊಽᮌ63ᮏ㸦 ෆࠊ 㔪ⴥᶞ52ᮏ㸧ࡢィ154ᮏᶞ㱋⬚㧗┤ᚄ❧ᮌಽᮌ

6 ಽᮌ䛿❧ᮌ䜘䜚䜒ᖹᆒᶞ㱋䛷⣙10ṓⱝ䛟䚸ᖹᆒ⬚㧗┤ᚄ䛷8 cmᑠ䛥䛛䛳䛯䠊7 ᒾᡭ┴ᑠᮏᕝ࿘㎶䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄪᰝ䛸ྠᵝ䛺⤖ᯝ7 ᶞ㱋䛜ⱝ䛟䠈⬚㧗┤ᚄ䛜ᑠ䛥䛔ಶయ䛿ὶฟ䛧䜔䛩䛟ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂ䛻ᐤ୚䛩䜛䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥䜜䛯䠊

13ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾኱䛝䛥ឡ፾┴⫰ᕝᒾᡭ┴ᑠᮏᕝ㧗ࡉᖜ

6 ⣙30 %䛜2 m䜢㉸䛘䜛኱つᶍ䛺ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䠄෗┿䠅䜢ᙧᡂ
7 ᒾᡭ┴ᑠᮏᕝ࿘㎶䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄪᰝ䛸ྠᵝ䛺⤖ᯝ7 䛣䜜䜙䛾ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᚋ䜝䛻䛿䠈኱㔞䛾ὶᮌ䜔ᅵ◁䛜ሁ✚䛧䛶䛚䜚䠈኱つᶍ䛺ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛿ὶᮌὶฟ䛻኱䛝䛺ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䜛䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥䜜䛯䠊ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂせᅉ

14ឡ፾┴
⫰ᕝ

TYPE

ㄝ᫂

๭ྜ

a.

ഃᓊࡢᩳ㠃ᔂቯ࠿ࡽ౪⤥ࡉࢀࡓಽᮌ࡜ᅵ◁ࡀ┤ୗࡢὶ㊰ࢆ㛢ሰࡋ㸪ࡑࡢሙ࡟ࢲ࣒ࢆᙧᡂࡋࡓࢱ࢖ࣉ

10.9%

b.

ὶ㊰ࢆ⛣ືࡋࡓὶᮌࡀ㏵୰࡛㞟✚ࡋ࡚ὶ㊰ࢆ㛢ሰࡋ㸪ࢲ࣒ࢆᙧᡂࡋ
ࡓࢱ࢖ࣉ

7.3%

c.

ഃᓊ࠿ࡽὶฟࡋࡓὶᮌࡸୖὶ࠿ࡽὶୗࡋࡓὶᮌࡀ㸪ὶ㊰⬥ࡢ❧ᮌ࡟ሁ✚ࡋ࡚ࢲ࣒ࢆᙧᡂࡋࡓࢱ࢖ࣉ

81.8%

ᒾᡭ┴
ᑠᮏᕝ

8%

92%

6 ὶ㊰ୖ䛾ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛿㇦㞵䛻䜘䛳䛶ὶ䛥䜜䠈ὶ㊰⬥䛾䝎䝮䛾ከ䛟䛜ṧᏑ䠊
7 䛣䛾ሁ✚≉ᛶ䛿䠈Seo et al. 㸦2015㸧䛜ᣦ᦬䛧䛶䛔䜛䜘䛖䛻䠈༡᪥ᮏ䛷䛿㇦㞵䛾㢖ᗘ䛜㧗䛔䛯䜑䠈໭᪥ᮏ䛻ẚ㍑䛧䛶ὶᮌሁ✚㔞䛜ᑡ䛺䛔䛣䛸䛻㛵ಀ䛧䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䜢♧၀䛧䛶䛔䜛䠊15ὶᮌὶฟ⤫ྜ䝰䝕䝹䛾ᵓ⠏3) ᑠ᳃኱㍜䠈ຓᕝ཭ᩯ䠈Thapthai CHAITHONG䠈㢼㛫⪽ὶᇦ䝇䜿䞊䝹䛷䛾ὶฟὶᮌ㔞䛾᥎ィ䝰䝕䝹䛾ᵓ⠏䠊Ἑᕝᢏ⾡ㄽᩥ㞟䠈25䠈2019, 639Ͳ644.
4) ᶓᒣග䠈ᑠ᳃኱㍜䠈Thapthai Chaithongᖹᡂ29ᖺ஑ᕞ໭㒊㇦㞵䛻䛚䛡䜛ᑎෆ䝎䝮ὶᇦ䛾ὶᮌὶฟ䝯䜹䝙䝈䝮䛾ゎ᫂䠊ᅵᮌᏛ఍ㄽᩥ㞟B1(ỈᕤᏛ), 75, 4, 2019, I_169ͲI_174.
5) Komori, D., Sukegawa, Y., Chaithong, T., Kazama, S.
Modelling of large wood export at a watershed scale.
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2021, 1–9.

᪤ ◊✲䞉⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䛷ᚓ䜙䜜䛯▱ぢ䜢㋃䜎䛘䛶䠈 16ேᕤ⾨ᫍ⏬ീ䜢⏝䛔䛶ᩳ㠃ᔂቯᇦ䜢ᢳฟ㝆Ỉ㔞䝕䞊䝍䛾ᩚഛ
䠄50m✵㛫ゎീᗘ䞉䠍᫬㛫ゎീᗘ䠅ᩳ㠃ᩳ㠃ᔂቯ䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛯Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞᥎ᐃ䝰䝕䝹䠄50m✵㛫ゎീᗘ䠅᳨ドⓎ⏕ὶᮌ㔞吹吞呂叏吨呀吸呎吖໙㓄䠈ᅵ㉁䠈᳜⏕䠈❧ᮌᐦᗘ䛺䛹䛾⌧ᆅㄪᰝ㝆Ỉ㔞ὶᇦὶᮌὶฟ䛾㖄┤㐣⛬

䠄Thapthai and Komori, 2017;Thapthai and Komori et al., 2018)ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䞉෌⛣ືͲὶฟ䜢⾲䛩ὶᇦ䝇䜿䞊䝹䛾䝍䞁䜽䝰䝕䝹䛾㛤ⓎⓎ⏕ὶᮌ㔞኱つᶍ䛺ᅵ▼ὶ䛻క䛖᪩䛔ὶฟὶᮌ㔞ὶᮌ䛾ὶฟሁ✚ὶᮌ㔞ὶᮌ䛾෌⛣ື䝎䝮㈓Ỉụ䛾ᤕᤊὶᮌ㔞䠄ຓᕝ䞉ᑠ᳃, 2017䠅ሁ✚ὶᮌ㔞᳨ドὶᇦෆ䛻ሁ✚䛥䜜䛯ὶᮌ䛜ὶฟ䛩䜛㐜䛔ὶฟὶᮌ㔞ὶᮌὶฟ䛾Ỉᖹ㐣⛬ὶᮌὶฟ叏୍㐃叏吮呄吒吐叏吹吞呂໬◊✲ᡂᯝ ୡ⏺ึ䛾ὶᮌὶฟ䛾୍㐃䛾䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾䝰䝕䝹໬䠄ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019; Komori et al. 2021䠅 䠊17Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞᥎ᐃ䝰䝕䝹䠄ィ⟬ᡭ㡰䠅䠄Thapthai and Komori, 2017䠅24᫬㛫㝆Ỉ㔞

DEM䠄10m䝯䝑䝅䝳䠅+
ᾐ㏱㏿ᗘഴᩳᗘ䠄50m䝯䝑䝅䝳䠅GreenͲAmptᘧᆅୗỈ఩

ᅵ㉁䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍

᳃ᯘᐦᗘ

+FS䠄Ᏻ඲⋡䠅

Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞

18Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞᥎ᐃ䝰䝕䝹
䠄Thapthai and Komori et al., 2018䠅⾲䠖⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䜘䜚సᡂ䛧䛯ᅵ㉁䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍ᇱ

ଶ

ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ

c ൅ cosȾ · m ߛ௦௔௧ ൅ ‫ ܦ‬െ 1 · ߛ௧ tanɔԢFS ൌcosȾ · sinȾ · m · ߛ௦௔௧ · ߛ௧ ൅ ‫ ܦ‬െ 1 · ߛ௧
Thapthai and Komori䠄2017䠅m䠖ᆅୗỈ఩䠈ߛ௦௔௧ 䠖㣬࿴༢఩ሁ✚㔜㔞ߛ௧ 䠖‵₶༢఩య✚㔜㔞䠈ɔԢ䠖ෆ㒊ᦶ᧿ゅc ᇱ 䠖᭷ຠ⢓╔ຊ䠈Ⱦ䠖ഴᩳᗘ䠈‫ܦ‬䠖ᆅ┙㧗䛥

FS䠄Ᏻ඲⋡䠅䠘 1ᩳ㠃ᔂቯ䛜Ⓨ⏕䛧䛶䛔䜛ᩘ್༢఩effective porosity

0.501

-

Soil suction head

16.68

cm

Hydraulic conductivity

0.65

cm/hr

volumetric water content deficit

0.486

-

Area of catchment2500cm

Channel width
Cohesion of soil
Friction angle
Saturated soil unit weight

500
10.30
28.70
15.20

cm
kPa
degreeTotal soil unit weight

14.80

kN/m

Water unit weight
Soil depth

9.81
5.00

kN/m
m

2

3

kN/m

3GIS䛻䜘䜚ὶᇦෆ䛾ὶ㊰䜢ᢳฟ༢఩᳃ᯘ㠃✚ᙜ䛯䜚䛾Ⓨ⏕㔞㽢ᩳ㠃ᔂቯⓎ⏕⟠ᡤὶ㊰⥲ᘏ㛗 㽢 ὶ㊰ᖜ㽢᳃ᯘᐦᗘ䠄⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䠅¾ 㐣๫䛻⟬ฟ䛧䛶䛔䜛3

ὶ㊰࿘㎶䛷Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯ὶᮌὶฟ䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢⾲⌧19⤖ᯝ䐟䠄ᩳ㠃ᔂቯ䝰䝕䝹䠅 䠄Sartsin and Komori et al., 2022䠅
Scenarios of model with different
spatial distribution parameter.

Evaluate the performance of modelusing ROC-AUC
Actual value

Predictedvaluepositive

negative

TPFP

positive

10

FN

negativeTN

1.0

True positive rate

50

BetterSoil
Thickness

Radar
Rainfall (R)IDW
Rainfall (I)Uniform (C)Z-model (Z)S-model (S)Uniform (C)Z-model (Z)S-model (S)C-10-R
Z-10-R
S-10-R
C-50-R
Z-50-R
S-50-R

C-10-I
Z-10-I
S-10-I
C-50-I
Z-50-I
S-50-I

Worse

True postive rate ൌFalse postive rate ൌ0.0

Spatial Resolution(meters)

False positive rate

Relative Importance of Predisposing
Factorsᵰᵬᵰᵬ ൅ᵢᵪᵢᵬᵢᵬ ൅ᵰᵪ

1.0ᵮᵥ 㻩ᵝᵱ䌦 ᵝᵟᵱᵷ ᶂᵟ ᶂᵿᵝ ᵱ ᵟᵷᶂᶂ䌫 㻝㻜㻜

where AUCall is the value of AUC computed from theprediction model using all predisposing factors,
while AUCi represents the AUC value when ith factor

20⤖ᯝ䐟䠄ᩳ㠃ᔂቯ䝰䝕䝹䠅 䠄Sartsin and Komori et al., 2022䠅
Scenarios of model with different
spatial distribution parameter.

Evaluate the performance of modelusing ROC-AUC
Actual value

Predicted
value

positive

negative

TPFP

positive

10

FN

negativeTN

True positive rate

1.0

50

True postive rate ൌFalse positive rate

1.0SoilThickness

Radar
Rainfall (R)IDW
Rainfall (I)Uniform (C)Z-model (Z)S-model (S)Uniform (C)Z-model (Z)S-model (S)C-10-R
Z-10-R
S-10-R
C-50-R
Z-50-R
S-50-R

C-10-I
Z-10-I
S-10-I
C-50-I
Z-50-I
S-50-I

Z-10-R scenario

Better scenario
Z-50-R
Worse

False postive rate ൌ0.0

Spatial Resolution(meters)

Relative Importance of Predisposing
Factorsᵰᵬᵰᵬ ൅ᵢᵪᵢᵬ
ᵢᵬ ൅ᵰᵪ

ᵮᵥ 㻩ᵝᵱ䌦 ᵝᵟᵱᵷ ᶂᵟ ᶂᵝ ᵱ ᵟᵷᶂᶂᵿ䌫 㻝㻜㻜Best

where AUCall is the value of AUC computed from theprediction model using all predisposing factors,
while AUCi represents the AUC value when ith factor

Worse

C-10-R scenario

Z-10-I scenario

AUC is 0.645 – 0.839

21ὶᮌὶฟ䝍䞁䜽䝰䝕䝹䠄ᑠ᳃䜙䠈2019䠅

22

ᑐ㇟ὶᇦ
 ໭ୖᕝὶᇦ䠄Komori et al., 2021䠅 ⟃ᚋᕝὶᇦ䠄ᶓᒣ䞉ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅ᅄ༑ᅄ⏣ࢲ࣒⚟ᒸ┴ᚚᡤࢲ࣒ᑎෆ䝎䝮‫࣒ࢲ⏣‮‬⏣℩ࢲ࣒ᮅ಴䜰䝯䝎䝇
ほ ᡤ

▼ῡࢲ࣒
 ⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䜢⾜䛳䛯2016ᖺ໭ᾏ㐨䞉ᮾ໭㇦㞵䛷኱つᶍὶᮌὶฟ䛜Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯ᑠᮏᕝὶᇦ䛻㞄᥋ ᑎෆ䝎䝮䛻䛚䛔䛶㐣㐣ཤ᭱኱䜽䝷䝇䛾ὶᮌ䛜ὶ䜜㎸䜐⿕ᐖ23⤖ᯝ䐠䠄ᚚᡤ䝎䝮䠅 䠄ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅
NS = 0.852䞉ᚚᡤ䝎䝮䞉‫⏣‮‬䝎䝮䞉▼ῡ䝎䝮䞉⏣℩䝎䝮NS = 0.7 ௨ୖ෌⌧ᛶ䠖䛒䜚

¾ 2002ᖺ, 2007ᖺほ ್ 䠖ቑຍⓎ⏕ὶᮌ㔞䠖ቑຍ✵㝽⋡ 䠖ῶᑡ
¾ 2013ᖺほ ᮇ㛫୰᭱኱䛾ほ ್Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞䛿2007ᖺ䛾༙ศ௨ୗ✵㝽⋡䠖S1 䠄1ẁ┠䛾㈓␃㔞䠅/ Z 䠄䝍䞁䜽䛾ᐜ㔞䠅㽢 100✵㝽⋡䠖ᑠᑠ24⤖ᯝ䐡䠄▼ῡ䝎䝮䠅 䠄ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅
NS = 0.829Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞䠖ᑠᑠὶฟὶᮌ㔞䠖኱኱

¾ 2007ᖺほ ್ 䠖ቑຍⓎ⏕ὶᮌ㔞䠖ቑຍ✵㝽⋡ 䠖ῶᑡ¾ ඲య䛾ഴྥ
ὶᮌⓎ⏕㔞䜢グ㘓䠖✵㝽⋡ῶᑡὶᮌⓎ⏕㔞䛺䛧 䠖✵㝽⋡ቑຍї ḟᅇ䛾㝆Ỉ䜲䝧䞁䝖䛾チᐜ㔞䜢ᢕᥱྍ⬟ィ⟬್䛸ほ್䛾ഴྥ䛜୍⮴␗䛺䜛2䛴䛾ὶᇦ≉ᛶ䜢⤌䜏ྜ䜟䛫䜛✵㝽⋡䠖S1 䠄1ẁ┠䛾㈓␃㔞䠅/ Z 䠄䝍䞁䜽䛾ᐜ㔞䠅㽢 100ὶฟὶᮌ㔞䜢⾲⌧ྍ⬟
䠄Komori et al., 2021䠅⤖ᯝ䐢䠄ᑎෆ䝎䝮䠅 䠄ᶓᒣ䞉ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅
H2425Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞ࢗ૚䠄኱つᶍ䠅ࢗ૚ + ࢗ૛ 䠄኱つᶍ䠇ᇶᗏ䠅
ほ ὶฟὶᮌ㔞

H29

 H24ᖺ䛻ὶᮌ䛜ከ㔞䛻Ⓨ⏕኱つᶍὶᮌὶฟ㔞䛿ᑠ䛥䛔䛜䠈➨䠍䝍䞁䜽䛾✵㝽䛜኱䛝䛟ῶᑡ㈓␃㛵ᩘ䝰䝕䝹㐺ᛂ⤖ᯝNashಀᩘ=0.963 䝍䞁䜽䛾✵㝽䛜ᅇ᚟䛧䛺䛔䜎䜎䠈
H29ᖺ䛻ከ㔞䛾ὶᮌ䛜ᢞධї ኱つᶍὶᮌὶฟ䛸䛧䛶䜋䜌ὶฟ➨䠍䝍䞁䜽䛾✵㝽⋡

H24ᖺ஑ᕞ໭㒊㇦㞵᫬䛻Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯ὶᮌ䛜
H27ᖺ஑ᕞ໭㒊㇦㞵䛻Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯䜒䛾䛸ඹ䛻ὶฟ26⤖ᯝ䐣䠄໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛸⟃ᚋᕝỈ⣔䛾ẚ㍑䠅

䠄ᶓᒣ䞉ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䛾ẚ㍑

1ẁ┠ї2ẁ┠䛾㍺㏦䛧䜔䛩䛥ὶᇦ㠃✚

1ẁ┠䛾
䝍䞁䜽ᐜ㔞

A(km2)Z(m3)

Z/A(m3/km2)

b(-)

ᑎෆ

51

4700

92.2

1.0ʹ10-4

ᚚᡤ

635

91200

143.6

1.0ʹ10-1

‫⏣‮‬

583

22800

39.1

1.0

▼ῡ

154

32900

213.6

9.0ʹ10-2

⏣℩

740

79100

106.9

1.0ʹ10-2

P
S1

%

%

S2

q1

ZPinf ൌ b㺃S1q2

ᑎෆ䝎䝮䛷䛿䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍 b 䛾್䛜௚䛾䝎䝮ὶᇦ䛸ẚ㍑䛧䛶ᑠ䛥䛔໭ୖᕝᑎෆ
1ẁ┠䛾ὶᮌ䛜2ẁ┠䛻㍺㏦䛥䜜䛻䛟䛟䠈㐃⥆䛧䛶ὶᮌ䛜Ⓨ⏕䛩䜛䛸኱つᶍὶᮌὶฟ䛧䜔䛩䛔

27⤖ᯝ䐣䠄໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛸⟃ᚋᕝỈ⣔䛾ẚ㍑䠅

䠄ᶓᒣ䞉ᑠ᳃䜙, 2019䠅2ẁ┠䠄ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ䠅䛾ẚ㍑%
ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ⋡䠙2ẁ┠䛾ὶฟὶᮌ㔞2ẁ┠䛾㈓␃ὶᮌ㔞%䜢⟬ฟ%ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ≉ᛶ䛾㐪䛔䛻╔┠

ὶฟὶᮌ㔞

…

㈓␃ὶᮌ㔞஑ᕞ

1996䡚2013䜎䛷䛾18ᖺ㛫䛾ᇶᗏὶฟ⋡䛾ᖹᆒ್ᚚᡤࢲ࣒ ‫▼ ࣒ࢲ⏣‮‬ῡࢲ࣒ ⏣℩ࢲ࣒ ᑎෆࢲ࣒
ᒾᡭ

0.60

0.13

3.02

4.60

໭ୖᕝ

10.06

ప䛔㧗䛔

໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛾䝎䝮ὶᇦ䛿ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ䛧䛻䛟䛔ᑎෆ䝎䝮ὶᇦ䛿ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ䛧䜔䛩䛔

䜎䛸䜑

ᑎෆ

286 ⌧ᆅㄪᰝ䜢ᐇ᪋䛧䚸ὶᮌὶฟ䝯䜹䝙䝈䝮䜢᫂䜙䛛䛻䛩䜛
7 ᶞ㱋䛜ⱝ䛟䠈⬚㧗┤ᚄ䛜ᑠ䛥䛔ಶయ䛿ὶฟ䛧䜔䛩䛟ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂ䛻ᐤ୚䛩䜛
7 ኱つᶍ䛺ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾⫼ᚋ䛻䛿኱㔞䛾ὶᮌ䜔ᅵ◁䛜ሁ✚䛧䛶䛚䜚䠈኱つᶍ䛺ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䠄ὶᮌ䛾ሁ✚䠅䛿ὶᮌὶฟ䛻୚䛘䜛ᙳ㡪䛜኱䛝䛔
7 ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂせᅉ䛻䛴䛔䛶䠈᪤ ◊✲䠄໭ᾏ㐨䛸ᒾᡭ┴䠅䛻ẚ䜉䛶䠈ὶ㊰ୖ䛻ᙧᡂ䛥䜜䜛䝎䝮䛜ᑡ䛺䛛䛳䛯¾ Seo et al.㸦2015㸧䛜ᣦ᦬䛧䛶䛔䜛㏻䜚䠈༡᪥ᮏ䛸໭᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛㇦㞵䛾Ⓨ⏕㢖ᗘ䛾㐪䛔䛜ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛾ᙧᡂせᅉ䛻ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥䜜䛯䠊

7 ὶ㊰⬥䝍䜲䝥䛾ὶᮌኳ↛䝎䝮䛿䠈ᛴᩳ㠃䛷ከ䛟ᙧᡂ䛥䜜䛶䛔䛯

6 ໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛚䜘䜃⟃ᚋᕝỈ⣔䜢ᑐ㇟䛻䚸䝰䝕䝹䜢ᵓ⠏䛩䜛
7 ᅄ༑ᅄ⏣䝎䝮௨እ䛾䝎䝮䛻䛚䛔䛶䠈᪩䛔ὶฟ≉ᛶ䛸㐜䛔ὶฟ≉ᛶ䛾2䛴䛾␗䛺䜛ὶฟ≉ᛶ䜢⤌䜏ྜ䜟䛫䛯䝍䞁䜽䝰䝕䝹䜘䜚䠈ὶฟὶᮌ㔞䛻㛵䛩䜛㧗䛔෌⌧ᛶ䜢ᚓ䛯
¾ ὶᮌ䛾ὶฟ䛻䛿䠈㝆Ỉ䜲䝧䞁䝖᫬䛻ᒣ㛫㒊䛻䛚䛔䛶Ⓨ⏕䛧䛯ὶᮌ䜔ሁ✚䛧䛶䛔䛯ὶᮌ䛜ᅵ▼ὶ➼䛻䜘䜚㏿䜔䛛䛻ὶฟ䛩䜛᪩䛔ὶฟ≉ᛶ䛸䚸᪂䛯䛺ὶᮌ䛾Ⓨ⏕䜢క䜟䛪䛻ሁ✚䛧䛶䛔䛯ὶᮌ䛜ὶฟ䛩䜛㐜䛔ὶฟ≉ᛶ䠄ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ䠅䛜Ꮡᅾ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛜ド᫂䛥䜜䛯䠊

7 ᑎෆ䝎䝮ὶᇦ䛿໭ୖᕝỈ⣔䛻ẚ䜉䚸኱つᶍὶᮌὶฟ䛜㉳䛝䜔䛩䛟䚸ሁ✚䛧䛯ὶᮌ䛿ᇶᗏὶᮌὶฟ䛸䛧䛶ὶฟ䛧䜔䛩䛔䛣䛸䛜᥎ᐹ䛥䜜䛯⌧ᅾ䛾ᒎ㛤 ὶᮌ⅏ᐖ䝸䝇䜽䛾ホ౯29ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䞉ᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫▼ῡ䝎䝮䠖154.0 km2㔩ᡣ䝎䝮䠖195.3 km2ⰼᒣ䝎䝮䠖126.9 km230

31⤖ᯝ䐤䠄ὶᮌὶฟ䝰䝕䝹䛾෌⌧ᛶ䠅32䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛯䝸䝇䜽᥎ィᡭἲ䠄䠍䠅



33

䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛯䝸䝇䜽᥎ィᡭἲ䠄䠎䠅⤖ᯝ䞉⪃ᐹ䐥

▼ῡ䝎䝮䠖154.0 km2㔩ᡣ䝎䝮䠖195.3 km2ⰼᒣ䝎䝮䠖126.9 km234⤖ᯝ䞉⪃ᐹ䐥▼ῡ䝎䝮䠖154.0 km2㔩ᡣ䝎䝮䠖195.3 km2ⰼᒣ䝎䝮䠖126.9 km235⤖ᯝ䞉⪃ᐹ䐦

▼ῡ䝎䝮䠖154.0 km2㔩ᡣ䝎䝮䠖195.3 km2ⰼᒣ䝎䝮䠖126.9 km236⤖ᯝ䞉⪃ᐹ䐧37▼ῡ䝎䝮䠖154.0 km2㔩ᡣ䝎䝮䠖195.3 km2ⰼᒣ䝎䝮䠖126.9 km238䜎䛸䜑 ὶᮌ⅏ᐖ䝸䝇䜽䛾ホ౯ὶฟ㔞 (mm)ὶฟὶᮌ㔞 (m3)㝆㞵㔞 (mm)Ⓨ⏕ὶᮌ㔞 (m3)39ໟᣓⓗ࡞ὶᇦ἞ỈࡢどⅬࡢᚲせᛶ᳃ᯘ䝞䜲䜸䝬䝇䛾⌧≧䠄᳃ᯘ㣬࿴䛾≧ἣ䠅䚽᳃ᯘ⵳✚㔞䛾ቑຍ䞉53൨m3䠄2017䠅
䛊21,600m3/km2䛋᳃ᯘᶵ⬟䛾ከ㠃ᛶ䞉17൨m3䠄1956䠅
䛊6,900m3/km2䛋ᣑ኱㐀ᯘᨻ⟇䛾ᑟධ䚽ಖᏳᯘ䛾㐺ษ䛺㓄⨨䚽ᒣ⭡ᅵ␃䜑ᕤ㻔⾲㠃ᾐ㣗㜵Ṇ䠅䚽㛫ఆ➼䛻䜘䜛᰿ⱼ䛾Ⓨ㐩ಁ㐍䚽ᖺ㛫⵳✚㔞䞉7,000୓m3
䠄䛖䛱ேᕤᯘᐤ୚ศ䠅
4,800୓m3䚽ὶᮌ໬ྍ⬟ᛶ䛾㧗䛔❧ᮌఆ᥇䚽ὶᮌᤕᤊᘧ䛾἞ᒣ䝎䝮䠋◁㜵䝎䝮㻌䛊ຠ⋡ⓗ䛺ὶᮌᤕᤊ䞉㈨※໬฼⏝䛋䚽ᅜ⏘ᮦ౪⤥㔞
䞉3,000୓m3
䠄Ⓨ㟁ཎᩱ/㞟ᡂᮦ➼䠅䞉⮬⤥⋡䠖36%䚽᳃ᯘ䛻⦆⾪ᶵ⬟䜢ᣢ䛯䛫䜛䚽἞ᒣ䝎䝮䛻䜘䜛῱ὶ䛾Ᏻᐃ໬䚽἞Ỉ䝎䝮䛻䜘䜛ὶᮌᤕᤊ

宰宰孳孱宭害宨宪䛊ὶᮌὶฟᣑ኱㜵Ṇ䛋䛊ᤕᤊ䛧䛯ὶᮌ䛾㈨※໬฼⏝䛋ໟᣓⓗ䛺ὶᮌ⅏ᐖᑐ⟇䛾ᚲせᛶ䠄ኴ⏣䞉⹸᫂䠅἞Ỉࢲ࣒ጁぢᕝ◁㜵ࢲ࣒

ὶᮌὶฟᒣ⭡ᔂቯࠐ஑ᕞ໭㒊㇦㞵㸦㸧࡟ࡼࡿὶᮌ⅏ᐖࡢᐇែ䝎䝮⟶⌮⪅➼䛾ᨭ᥼⟇䛾䛒䜚᪉⹸᫂ຌ⮧࣭ኴ⏣Ṋᙪ┘ಟࠕࢲ࣒࡜⥳ࡢࢲ࣒ࠖ㸦ᢤ⢋࣭➹⪅ຍ➹㸧

40

ὶᮌ㈨※໬䞉฼⏝䝅䝇䝔䝮䠄ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬Ἑᕝ◁㜵ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨᆅᇦㄢ㢟䠄ᯇୗඛ⏕䠄୰ኸ኱Ꮫ䠅௦⾲䠅⏬

≉ὶᮌὶฟ ᛶᅗ㸦඲ᅜ517ࢲ࣒㸧䠍䠊◊✲ィ䠄඲య䛾ᯟ⤌䜏䠅⌮ᕥᅗ䠖඲ᅜ኱䝎䝮䛾ὶᮌᤕᤊ㔞䝕䞊䝍䠄㏆㻞㻜ᖺᖹᆒ್䠅⌮䚽ᖺ㛫⥲㔞ᖹᆒ㻡㻜୓㼙㻟䠈ᗫᲠฎ ㈝㻡㻜㻙㻝㻜㻜൨෇䠄᥎ᐃ䠅䚽໭ୖᕝ┤㎄㻢䝎䝮䠖ᖺ⥲㔞ᖹᆒ㻠㻘㻡㻜㻜㼙㻟䠈ᗫᲠฎ ㈝㻤༓୓෇⛬ᗘ䛸᥎ᐃ䚹⏝⎔⏝≀ὶᮌ㈨※໬䞉฼ 䝅䝇䝔䝮㛤Ⓨ䠙ᖹᡂ30Ͳ32ᐇ᪋ㄢ㢟ὶᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶᮌ㈨※໬䞉฼ 䠋ᆅᇦ㑏ඖ䠋 ㉁ᚠ ⣔෌ᵓ⠏䝰䝕䝹⏺

䛆䝁䜰ᢏ⾡䛇ὶᮌᢞධ䞉㧗 ゎ⧄⏕

M RMள⮫ Ỉ䝎䝮䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶᮌᤕᤊ䞉ศู⏝⏝⏺

ຍỈศゎᶵ⬟䠅Ỉゎ⧄ᮦ䛾฼⏘␆䛆ள⮫ὶᮌ䜢㈨※໬䞉㎰ᯘὶᮌ௙ศ䛡䚽Ⰻ㉁ᮦ䋻ᮌ㉁㣫ᩱ䠋䜻䝜䝁⳦ᗋᇶᮦ䚽୙Ⰻᮦ䋻⭉᳜㉁䞉䝣䝹䝪㓟ᾮ㔞䛾ቑຍ⏝䚽Ẽೃኚື䛾㢧ᅾ໬䠈 ὶᮌⓎ⌮䚽ὶᮌ䛾ᗫᲠᑐ⟇䛛䜙ὶᮌ㈨※໬䞉฼䝁䝇䝖๐ῶ䠈⮬ᚊⓗ䛺Ἑᕝ⟶⟇䜈᪉ᘧ䛾ᐇ⿦㎰ᯘᴗ᱂ᇵヨ㦂㸦ගྜᡂಁ㐍ຠᯝ㸧㞴ศゎᛶ䛾ᮌ㉁ᵓ

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䝣䝹䝪㓟ᾮ䜢▷᫬㛫䛷ゎ⧄䞉⏝⢄ࡢⓎⱆヨ㦂㈨※໬䞉฼⟇䛾᳨ウ

ᮌ㉁㣫ᩱ䜻䝜䝁⳦ᗋ⏝⋡ᕼ㔘ಸ 㸦ᕥࡼࡾ㸧ಸ㸪༓ಸ㸪Ỉࡢࡳ

㏵䛇ᴗ䜈䛾㑏ඖ⏕ὶᮌᤕᤊ䚽Ἑ㐨ෆᶞᮌสⲡ㢮ὶᮌゎ⧄ᕤ㈨※෌ ⿦⨨䠄㧗ὶᮌゎ⧄䞉㈨※໬฼⏝ࢹ࣮ࢱศᯒ㸸ᮾ໭኱Ꮫᑠ᳃◊✲ᐊ㎰ᯘᴗศ㔝䛻䛚䛡䜛᪂⣲ᮦ䛸䛧䛶䛾฼ ྍ⬟ᛶ䠄᳃䛿ᾏ䛾ᜊே䠅