Localized climate data and risk
information in support oftransformational climatechange adaptation in theagriculture sector
Hideki Kanamaru
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Hideki.Kanamaru@fao.org

SDG 2 Zero Hunger´

By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including
infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round´

By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on stunting andwasting in children under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating
women and older persons´

By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous
peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive
resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets and opportunities for value addition and non-farm
employment´

By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase
productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change,
extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality´

By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and their related
wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at the national, regional andinternational levels, and promote access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic
resources and associated traditional knowledge, as internationally agreed´

Increase investment, including through enhanced international cooperation, in rural infrastructure, agricultural researchand extension services, technology development and plant and livestock gene banks in order to enhance agricultural
productive capacity in developing countries, in particular least developed countries´

Correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets, including through the parallel
elimination of all forms of agricultural export subsidies and all export measures with equivalent effect, in accordance withthe mandate of the Doha Development Round´

Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely
access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility

SDG 2 Zero Hunger
SDG 2.4.1´ By 2030, ensure sustainable foodproduction systems and implement
resilient agricultural practices that
increase productivity and production,that help maintain ecosystems, thatstrengthen capacity for adaptation toclimate change, extreme weather,drought, flooding and other disasters
and that progressively improve land andsoil quality

SDG 13 Climate Action•

Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related
hazards and natural disasters in all countries•

Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies
and planning•

Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional
capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact
reduction and early warning•

Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country
parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020
from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in thecontext of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on
implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fundthrough its capitalization as soon as possible•

Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climatechange-related planning and management in least developed
countries and small island developing States, including focusing on
women, youth and local and marginalized communities

SDG13 Climate Action
SDG 13.a.1´ ….a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion
annually by 2020 from all sources to address theneeds of developing countries… fully
operationalize the Green Climate Fund …
Current status´ Initial efforts to mobilize resources for the Green
Climate Fund raised $10.3 billion and developed- country parties are strongly urged to scale up
their financial support.

Green Climate Fund´ …supporting paradigm shifts in both mitigation andadaptation.
´ The Fund aims for a 50:50 balance between mitigation
and adaptation investments over time.
´ It also aims for a floor of 50 percent of the adaptation
allocation for particularly vulnerable countries,
including Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small
Island Developing States (SIDS), and African States.
´ … in transformational climate-sensitive investments.
´ … developing country partners exercise ownership ofclimate change funding and integrate it within theirown national action plans.

GCF adaptation projects
Climate information

GCF adaptation projects
Water

GCF adaptation projects
AgricultureGCF adaptation projects
Other

Need for localized climateinformation´International development
community needs localized
climate information, information
on climate impacts, vulnerability,risks, for designing policies andprojects´In support of transformationalchanges

Transformational Climate
Change Adaptation´Funding – Green Climate Fundand others´Long-term´Beyond “development” project´Beyond one-time investment´Innovation – accessible forsmallholder farmers

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

Any climate change
adaptation programme/project
should be supported by robustevidences.

There are many types ofevidences that support climatechange adaptation.

• Past climate, and its impacts on localagriculture• Future projected climate and its
impacts on local agriculture• Characterization of vulnerability toclimate change and other factors• GHG emissions• Identification and appraisal of potential
adaptation practices•

Trials, Socio-economic econometric analysis, costbenefit analysis, biophysical models, etc• Effectiveness of adaptationinterventions à monitoring and evaluation

• Past climate, and its impacts on localagriculture• Future projected climate and its
impacts on local agriculture• Characterization of vulnerability to
climate change and other factors• Current GHG emissions• Identification and appraisal of potential
adaptation practices•

Trials, Socio-economic econometric analysis,
Economic modeling, cost-benefit analysis, etc• Effectiveness of adaptationinterventions à monitoring and evaluation

Agronomic weather indices
Chitedze, Malawi
Number of dry-spells during the reproductive period of the 120-day and 90-day growing
Number of dry spells in reproductive (90) period (trend=−0.02, pval=0.02)
Number of dry spells in reproductive (120) period (trend=0.02, pval=0.01)
season
3
3
2.5

2.5

2

2

1.5

1.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

120-dayMaize

1995

2000

2005

2010

01965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

90-day Maize

2000

2005

2010

• Past climate, and its impacts on localagriculture• Future projected climate and its
impacts on local agriculture• Characterization of vulnerability toclimate change and other factors• Current GHG emissions• Identification and appraisal of potential
adaptation practices•

Trials, Socio-economic econometric analysis,
Economic modeling, cost-benefit analysis, etc• Effectiveness of adaptationinterventions à monitoring and evaluationMOSAICC´ Modelling System for Agricultural
Impacts of Climate Change – aninterdisciplinary collaborative platform

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

We aim to contribute tonational policy planning andprogrammes/projects on
climate change, agriculture,and food security.
´ National Adaptation Plan
´ Climate-Smart Agriculture´ NDC – Nationally Determined Contribution´ Agriculture Investment Plan
´ National Climate Change Policy´ National Communication to UNFCCC

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

Peru – corn yield projection• Which crops are more vulnerable and where?
• What are optimal crop mix?

Answering these questions
aid policy makers.
´ How government should allocateresources.
´ How long-term agriculture development
plan should be.
´ How to formulate CC adaptation
projects.
´ Research and development

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

Capacity development´ Adaptation, long-term, iterative process´ Capacities need to be internalized in thecountry for supporting long-term climatechange adaptation development
pathway

Country-driven approach• By national scientists• With country’s own data
• For country's information needs

Elements that support
transformational changes´Evidence-based´Link with policies´Scaling-up / replication´Capacity development /knowledge sharing´Enabling environment

Stakeholder involvement´Interdisciplinary working group´Scientists´Different disciplines´Data providers´Policy makers´Different ministries and institutes´Academic studies designed tomeet the needs of stakeholders
e.g. policy makers

Project Steering Committee
Chaired by Ministry of Agriculture
With: Ministry of Env,
National Weather Service, etc
National Project Manager(consultant)National Project Coordinator(assigned by main counterpartministry)
Other projectcomponents

Technical working group
for CC assessments
Climatologists

Crop Scientists
Economists

Leader of TWG

Foresters

Hydrologists
Data Providers

Policy makers

Trainers(internationalscientists)
FAO technicalofficers

• Past climate, and its impacts on localagriculture• Future projected climate and its
impacts on local agriculture• Characterization of vulnerability toclimate change and other factors• GHG emissions• Identification and appraisal of potential
adaptation practices•

Trials, Socio-economic econometric analysis, costbenefit analysis, biophysical models, etc• Effectiveness of adaptationinterventions à monitoring and evaluation

• Past climate, and its impacts on local
agriculture• Future projected climate and its
impacts on local agriculture• Characterization of vulnerability toclimate change and other factors• GHG emissions• Identification and appraisal of potential
adaptation practices•

Trials, Socio-economic econometric analysis, costbenefit analysis, biophysical models, etc• Effectiveness of adaptationinterventions à monitoring and evaluation

Rapid climate risk assessment
and adaptation options
appraisal in agriculture´ Methodology, designed for supporting climatechange adaptation project design´ Rapid assessment´ Applicable in diverse climate, ecosystems; Crops,
livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, and forest´ Output: characterization of climate risks inproject site (e.g. province, basin), andrecommended context- and location-specificadaptation practices´ Using global datasets, including localized climate
information; Allowing room for improving
assessments by adding details, precision,accuracy later with local datasets

Summary´ Promote evidence-based adaptation´ Policy makers and project formulators arelooking for information to underpin policies andproject objectives; role for science community´ Link with a number of national and international
policy frameworks´ Scales matter´ Capacity development´ Stakeholder involvement´ Collaboration with FAO?
Hideki.Kanamaru@fao.org