Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2024 (Part 4)
Tokyo expected to see blossoming later than normal, possibly on the 29th
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released the cherry blossom blooming and full bloom forecast(part 4) at observation points nationwide on Wednesday March 27, 2024

Cherry Blossom Forecast Map

Bloom Forecast Dates (Major Locations)

Trend of Blossoming and Full Bloom
Blooming is just around the corner, but the transition to spring is slow.
Since March, temperatures across the nation have been lower than usual, though with someareas experiencing a temporary surge of spring warmth surpassing 20℃ around the 16th to
17th. However, following that, days reminiscent of winter chill and rainy weather persisted,leading to a slower growth of cherry blossom buds than anticipated.
Consequently, many areas in Western and Eastern Japan are experiencing a significant
delay in blossoming compared to last year, with some locations being more than three days
later than average.
However, during this weekend, around the 30th to 31st, an early taste of summer warmth isexpected in some areas, with temperatures approaching 25°C. Even in regions of Western andEastern Japan where blossoming has been delayed, many are expected to bloom by this time.
Furthermore, from April onwards, temperatures in Northern Japan are expected to be higher
than average. Therefore, cherry blossom buds are anticipated to grow well, and bothblossoming and full bloom are likely to occur earlier than usual in Northern Japan.
This year's cherry blossoms began blooming in Sukumo City, Kochi Prefecture on March 12th*,
and according to sample trees from the Japan Meteorological Observatory, they bloomed in
Kochi City on the 23rd. As of 12:00 on the 27th, reports of blossoming were received from 11cities including Fukuoka City and Kumamoto City.
As April begins, the cherry blossom front will continue to move northward. It is expected toblossom in Sendai on April 2nd, in Akita on the 12th, and in Aomori on the 18th. By late April, it
will reach Hokkaido, with blossoming expected in Sapporo on the 26th.
Furthermore, it is expected that the cherry blossom full bloom will start from Miyakonojo Cityon March 29th*. However, full bloom by the end of March is expected to be limited to someearly-blooming regions. As April begins, full bloom will be observed across various regions, andin early April, there will be a widespread full bloom rush from Kyushu to Southern Tohoku.
*The information for Sukumo and Miyakonojo are not from sample trees of the meteorologicalobservatories, but from independent observation points of JWA.

The Appearance of Cherry Blossom Buds

The sample tree in Tokyo(photographed on March 27th)
The estimated blossoming datefor Tokyo is March 29th.
This will be the latest blossomingin the past 10 years.

The sample tree in Fukuoka(photographed on March 27th)
Blossoming occurred on March 27th.
This is 5 days later than average and 9 days later
than last year's blossoming.

The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 83 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site
below operated by JWA.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/
Cherry Blossom Forecast
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please find the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/【Description of words】
Normal: Average of 1991-2020Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal

Originally released in Japanese: 2024/3/27

Reference material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast

Q1: What are the criteria for the flowering and full bloom dates?
A1: The criteria are the same as those used by Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering period
starts the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers have started to bloom on the designatedobservation tree (i.e. sample trees), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of
the buds have opened on the sample trees.
Q2: How many locations are expected?
A2: We announced forecasts for 83 locations nationwide. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample
trees observed by each local meteorological observatory and 30 locations where observation data
are obtained from cooperating agencies such as municipalities/local governments and parks.
Q3: What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association's cherry blossom
forecast?
A3: We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn
onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of cherry buds. Our forecasts are basedon accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories andcooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Meteorological Association has
been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 18th year of ourendeavor.
Q4: What data are used for forecasting cherry blossoms?
A4: The following data are used.
1. Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
2. Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather
Association's point forecasts and long-term forecasts).
The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry
blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy.
Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds
grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote fasterbud growth and earlier blooming.