SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Climate change 2022:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Towards Climate Resilient Development

H.O. Pörtner, Co-Chair IPCC WGII, and WGII Author Team,(Co-Chair of IPCC-IPBES workshop report on Climate and Biodiversity)

Ocean Image Bank/M.
Curnock, S. Baldwin,
CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Y.
Ishida/UNDP T. Leste
CC BY-NY 2.0

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

WGII: Guiding AMBITION in Mitigation and Adaptation, setting LONGTERM GLOBAL GOALS … for protecting biodiversity and human society
IPCC 6th Assessment Cycle: 3 Special Reports, WGI + II + III AR6
released between October 2018 and March 2022

Co-Sponsored Workshop Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change

What is already happening …
Human pressure on biodiversity is increasing constantly. At the same time conservation efforts havenot been sufficient to stem the loss of biodiversity on a global scale.
Human caused climate change is increasingly threatening nature and its contributions to people,causing:

Losses in …Overfished Stocks

Pörtner et al., 2021

…Excessive Drought…Excessive Wildfires…Heatwaves[Unsplash.com, Facebook/ Help Save theWildlife and Bushlands in Campbelltown,
Madeleine Nicolas /imaggeo.egu.eu ]SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORTClimate change isaffecting the lives ofbillions of people,
despite efforts toadapt... for example, throughhigh intensity cyclones,
sea level rise, heavy
rainfall, drought, causing
losses and damages
NLRC via IFRC CC BY-NC 2.0

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

3.3 – 3.6 billion people live in hotspots of high vulnerability toclimate change impacts

IPCC WGII AR6 Chapter 8

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Observed impacts of climate change on ecosystems
Increasing
adverseand positive
impacts
Increasing
adverseimpactse.g. Temperature and Water changes

Observed impacts on human systems

Source:
IPCC WGII AR6SPM Figure 2

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

The Future: e.g., Loss of Human (and Livestock) Habitat
Global distribution of population exposed to hyperthermia from extreme heat andhumidity (concerning half to three-quarters of the population periodically by 2100).

recent≈1.6°C≈2.6°C

≈4.3°CIPCC WGII AR6 Report Figure AI.29,

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

The Future: e.g., Loss of Species Habitat and Biodiversity

IPCC WGII AR6 Report Figure AI.15

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Nature’s crucial services at risk in a warming world

Pollination

Coastal protection

Tourism / recreation

Food source

HealthWater filtration

Clean air / water

Climate regulation[Ocean Image Bank/ Shaun Wolfe, Dimitris Poursanidis; FAO/Kurt Arrigo, Unsplash, Axel Fassio/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Evaluating risks
The IPCC concept of risk
Climate action entails
risk reduction byadaptation and mitigation…. considering limits toadaptation[IPCC SROCC, WGII AR6]

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityGlobal and regional risk provide orientation for action (adaptation and mitigation)… minimizing risk by keeping global warming below 1.5°C

2.0°C
1.5°C

AfricaMediterraneanEurope

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

AR6 insight: Risks are developing sooner than assessed in AR5… emphasizing the ambitious side of the Paris Agreement (GWL ≤ 1.5°C)

IPCC WGII AR6 SPM Figure 3 and AR5 Assessment Box SPM.1 Figure 1

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORTVulnerable
population groups
have the most urgentneed for adaptation… but:
There are increasing
gaps between
adaptation action
taken and what’s
needed … how do weaccelerate andsustain adaptation?
A. Erlangga/CIFOR-ICRAF CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Towards Transformative Adaptation: Five System Transitions

Land, ocean,
coastal andfreshwater
ecosystems

Urban, ruralandinfrastructure

EnergyIndustrySociety●Have co-benefits with mitigation and are important for achieving the low global warming
levels that would avoid many limits to adaptation.

●Make possible the adaptation required for human health and well being; economic andsocial resilience; ecosystem health and planetary health.
P. Baum, NASA, F. Dantz, M. Jozwiak/Unsplash, UN Photo/O. Abdisalan Flickr CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

The Feasibility of Adaptation measures: e.g. Land and ocean ecosystems

IPCC WGII AR6 SPM Figure 4a

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Current imbalance …

towards a sustainable future =Climate Resilient Development…

Source:
IPCC WGII AR6SPM Figure 1

Co-Sponsored Workshop Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change

Integrating conservation, climate and societal actions: spatial planning
Treating climate, biodiversity, and human society as coupled systems is key to successful outcomes.
To be successful, conservation and climate actions would go hand in hand across landscapes, in cities and rural areas,taking people’s needs into consideration, for maximized benefits for climate, biodiversity and humans.

…effectivelyconserving
ecosystems on 30 to50% of land and ocean

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

The science is clear.
Any further delay in concerted
global action will miss a brief andrapidly closing window to secure
a liveable future.
IPCC AR6 reports offer solutions
to the world.
However, it is getting late!

Discussion points

Some high level conclusions from the WGII report(s):- Meeting the ambitious side of the Paris
agreement has no acceptable alternative.
- A holistic concept (CRD) integrates mitigation,adaptation, development, and also covers lossand damage.
- Justice and equity demand shared responsibility
for the present and the future. (A dynamic basis
for everybody’s regular financial contributions
would be the cumulative emissions percountry, past and present.)

Discussion points

Some high level conclusions from the WGII report(s):- Solutions of the climate and the biodiversity
crises depend on each other.
- Global Goals: As much as limiting warming to 1.5°
would be a GG for Mitigation, limiting risk to
medium levels could be a GG for Adaptation.
According to WGII both GGs would nicely match.
- CRD and the closing time window call for tieing
development to using renewable energies only.
- Climate action for mitigation and adaptation has
no alternative and is an existential necessity.

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Thank you!
IPCC Working Group II Author Team

@IPCC_CH#IPCCReport
For more information:@IPCC

IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int@IPCC

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