National Spatial Planning as a Toolto achieve resilience and development
and disruption
The case of Sri Lanka National Physical Plan 2050
Then and Now
Jagath Munasinghe
Professor in Town Planning
University of Moratuwa,
Sri Lanka
jagathnm@uom.lk

National Spatial Planning as a Toolto achieve resilience and development or disruption

National Physical Plan 2050
Enacted in June 2019

Since then (2019-2022)
The impact of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact

Three projects selected to fund:• Road Traffic /Signal Systems
Improvement in Colombo(Proposed by the RDA)•

Circular Highway Construction andImprovements(Proposed by the RDA)

•Formation of the Land Information Base
(Project by the Survey Dept. and theMinistry of Lands)

Since then (2019-2022)
The impact of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact

Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=MCC+Sri+Lanka&tbm

Since then (2019-2022)• Election of a New President and a New Government: 2019
• Manifesto of the New Government :The C Shaped Economic Corridor and Four
Multi-Dimensional Commercial Cities

Since then (2019-2022)• The Down turn of the Economy of Sri Lanka• Challenges to the New Government• Inappropriate policies associated with development

Since then (2019-2022)
Rolling into the Vicious Circle
Irregular monitory and fiscal policies:• Depreciating government revenue• Central Bank printing of currency notes• Declining value of the national currency(LKR)• Losing confidence in investment
environment• Increasing trade deficit and depreciating
foreign reserves• Government’s inability to provide publicgoodsSince then (2019-2022)
Rolling into the Vicious Circle
Catalyzed by Corvid 19 Pandemic Situation:• Movement restrictions and Locked up
communities• Short of supplies- Food and essential
services• Loss of employment, businesses andforeign remittances• Declining household income and Increasing
povertySince then (2019-2022)
Rolling into the Vicious Circle
Ad hoc Physical Developments andInconsistent Policies:• Deviation from the National and Local
Plans• Problematic prioritization andimplementation of projects• Less of visionary guidance on landuse, leading to disastrous
consequences

Since then (2019-2022)‘Aragalaya’ – Uprise of the people
May –June 2022
• Emerging public
unrest andprotests againstthe Government• Ousting of thePresident and theGovernment• Appointment of aCaretaker
Government
2022- to date

Since then (2019-2022)

Latest:• Caretaker President has been appointed• He appointed a Parliamentary Sub-Committee to identify
Short and Medium Term Programs related to Economic Stabilization• The Committee proposed
19 strategic directives to change the existing system:
19. “No large scale project should be commenced, and no capital expenditure
should be made outside of the National Physical Plan”.

Reformulation of theNational Physical Plan

June 2021

Review of the Existing Plan
Preliminary Investigation and the Analysis of the Context
Consultation of Stakeholders + Focus Group Discussions
Vision Formulation

The Legitimate Process

Consultation of Technical Advisory Committee
Preliminary Planning and Policy Framework
February 2022

Stakeholder Consultation
Detail Surveys and Analysis

Detail Draft Plan
May 2022

Consultation of Technical Advisory Committee

Stakeholder Consultation
Inter-Ministerial Coordination Committee

February 2023

Consultation of Technical Advisory Committee
Final Draft Plan

Approval of the National Physical Planning Council
Gazette Notification
Implementation

The National Physical Plan 2050
Guiding Policies

1. Conservation of the ‘Critical’ and the ‘Unique’.
Considered the sensitive settings, water resources and the natural ecosystems for the long sustaining
economy and the socio-cultural environment.

2. Promotion of the ‘Livability’ for ‘Human’Considered the environments most appropriate for human habitation in terms of climate, availability ofresources for basic needs and essential services.

3. Optimization of the ‘Utility’ of the ‘Available’.
Considered the optimum use of the available resources and infrastructure for future development andin view of the Sustainable Development Goals.

4. Exploration of ‘Potentials’ and ‘Enhancement’ of the use
Considered the Human Resource locations: where populations with various skills and education levels arelocated Resource locations: such have potentials for diversified developments.

Urban Quest of Sri Lanka?
Census Figures:
Urban Population in Sri Lanka

Urban Quest of Sri Lanka?
Census Figures:
Urban Population in Sri Lanka

Census Percentage Population Percentage
Yearin the Category
Residential
Land
Occupied
Category Percentage Category

1971

3.08

18%

6.0

1981

11.63

23%

7.2

2001

33.50

14.6%

6.3

2012

49.49

18.2%

6.7

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

‘Urbanization’ and ‘Urbanizing’ of Sri Lanka:
Analysis of Census Figures in Sri Lanka for:Who is Urbanized?

• Having Access to ‘Urban’ Facilities• Leading ‘Urban’ Lifestyles• Having ‘Urban’ Aspirations
Urbanization level% of the(percentile category) Total population
91-100
81-90
71-80
61-70
51-60
41-50
31-40
21-30
11-19.9
0 -10

0.54
1.67
5.28
6.37
12.17
16.71
41.7
12.57
2.85
0.15

Virtually Everybody, but

Literally nobody

Cumulative %Population% ofLand Extent

Cumulative %Land Extent

0.54
2.21
7.49
13.86
26.03
42.74
84.44
97.01
99.86
100.010.030.1
0.37
0.56
1.86
5.27
36.91
32.87
19.05
2.96

0.03
0.13
0.5
1.06
2.92
8.19
45.1
77.97
97.02
99.98

Source: Munasinghe, M, Geeganage, C and de Silva C, 2015.

of Sri Lanka
Hidden Urbanization in
80%
70%
60% ‘Urban
Distribution of populations, who are more than 40%

1. Conservation of the ‘Critical’ and the ‘Unique’.
Lands Need to be Conserved(Analysis of the Sensitivity and the Constraints)

1. Conservation of the ‘Critical’ and the ‘Unique’.
Lands Crucial for Conservation
due to Environmental Sensitivity
Criteria
1. Occupies by Forest Reserves, ConservedAreas, Environmentally Sensitive Areas,Wild Life Reserves, etc.
2. Vulnerable to Landslides, Floods,
Cyclones, and other Natural Disasters
3. Exposed to the impacts of climate change(sea level rise, high rainfall, drought etc.)

2. Promotion of the most ‘Livable’ areas for future human settlements
Free from Disasters

Accessibility to Infrastructure

Climatic conditions

2. Promotion of the most ‘Livable’ areas for future human settlements
Criteria
1. Free from disasters
2. Availability of water supply schemes
3. Availability of main road connections
4. Close proximity to main urban centers
5. Availability of lands for development purposes(free from disasters)
6. Healthy temperature
7. Healthy rainfall3. Optimization of the ‘Utility’ of the ‘Available’ resources and Infrastructure.
1981- 1994

1994- 2001

2000-2012

3. Optimization of the ‘Utility’ of the ‘Available’ resources and Infrastructure.

Population - 20,800,000 (2018 estimated)
Relatively more literate ( 91% - 95%),
Increasingly ‘better educated’
YearTertiary

SecondaryPrimary

1991

18 - 20 %38 – 40%

90 – 95%

2001

20 - 25%

45 – 50%

90 – 95%

2011

25 - 30%

50 - 60%

90 - 100%2021

30 – 40%

60 - 70%

90 - 100%

2030

> 50%

> 70%

100 %

Population characteristics• Increasing at a decreasing rate (1.0% )• Literacy rate (>95%)• Compulsory Secondary Education andPromoted Tertiary Education• Unemployment rate (4-6%)

Implication:
Higher Attainment > Higher Expectations > New Opportunities

3. Optimization of the ‘Utility’ of the ‘Available’ resources and Infrastructure.
Major Infrastructure
Development Projects

Availability of water for Further use(Discharge - Use)

3. Optimization of the ‘Utility’ of the ‘Available’ resources and Infrastructure.
Lands Developable for the Best Utility ofLand, Infrastructure and Human Resources
Criteria
1. Free from Major Threats

2. Availability of Water for Developments
3. Proximity to Highways and Main Roads

4. Close proximity to Urban Centers
5. Less of undulating terrains

4. Exploration of ‘Potentials’ and ‘Enhancement’ of the use.
Locations with High Potentials
for exploration of Possibilities
Eco/Nature/Culture Tourism,
Agricultural Resources
Fisheries and Aquatic Resources,
Mineral Resources
Human Resources
Criteria

1.Easy access to future potential resources
2.Close proximity to national road connections(Expressways, Highways and Railways)

The Spatial Strategy
National Physical Plan 2050 (2019)

National Physical Plan 2048 (2022)

Spatial Strategy – NPP 2048
1. Resilience against natural disasters
Conserved Central Highlands+ Forest Reserves+ Water Cascades+ Sensitive Ecosystems
2. Resilience against man made disasters
Four Urban Conurbations+ Two Metro Regions+ Nine Main Cities

3. Resilience against economic disasters
Optimized
Road & Transport Infrastructure
Land & Water Resources

Northern Corridor
1,500,000
Mullaitivu
100,000

Mannar
150,000

Vauniya
100,000
Anuradhapura
500,000
Puttlama
150,000

Polonnaruwa
150,000Eastern Corridor
1,500,000
Mahiyangana
100,000

Kandy
500,000
Nuwara Eliya
100,000

East –West Corridor
8,000,000

Rathnapura
100,000

Galle
300,000
Matara400,000

Wellawaya
100,000

Southern Corridor
1,600,000

Lessons Learnt :National Spatial Plans can be:• Tools, double edged, but ornamental• The use depends on the purpose:
either to achieve resilience, safe and sustainable territorial no developments
orto disrupt the harmonious existence/developments
to make and unmake governments and nations• Plans can have multiple narrations, and may not complete,buta Scientific Approach will save the Plan.
• Efforts, costs, knowledge and information, are worth and will be of use atthe right time.

Developments in Planning in the past isHistory

Developments in future without Planning is

MistryPlanning for Developments in the future is aNecessity

Tank you for your patience!
National Spatial Planning as a Tool to achieve resilience and development
The case of Sri Lanka National Physical Plan 2050
Jagath Munasinghe
Professor in Town Planning
University of Moratuwa,
Sri Lanka
jagathnm@uom.lk