A Project on Regional Climate Change for
East Asia and Korean Peninsula- within the CORDEX Framework Hyun-Suk Kang1, M. Suh2, D. Cha3, S. Min4, M. Kim2, and J. Ahn5
1 National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, KMA
2 Kongju National University
3 Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
4 Pohang University of Science and Technology
5 Pusan National University

CORDEX-CORE Framework• Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation (CORE) in partto be responsible to IPCC needs• For each domain, a matrix of GCM-RCD experiments isdesigned to cover as much as possible for different
dimensions of the uncertainty space (e.g., emissions andGCM spreads)• As a CMIP endorsed diagnostic MIPs, all outputs should bearchived and distributed by ESGF following the CMIP
standard format conventions

CORDEX-EA: Phase 1 vs. Phase II• New domain and resolution, whichmeans…

• Single GCM forcing was thelimitation of phase 1. Multi-GCMs
are essential for the Phase II.

• More groups in Japan and China

joined, particularly ESD-Asia grouphas been launched by K. Dairaku.

• KMA/APCC will setup and open
the ESGF data node next year.

A Regional Downscaling Project
coordinated by KMA

KMA/NIMS
CMIP5 experiment with HadGEM2-AO and provide GCM forcing
Coordinate CORDEX-East Asia
ESGF node for data archiving/distribution

DynamicalDownscalingGroup• Multi-RCMs forced
by HadGEM2-AO• Ensemble method• Uncertainty
Assessment

Statistical
DownscalingGroup• Method
Development• High-resolution
projection data up
to 1 km• Focusing on
national scenario(Extreme) Analysis
Group• Evaluation of
CORDEX outputs
for extreme events• Evaluation ofTropical Cyclones

Application Group• Essential factors foradministrative districts
in agriculture, health,and disasterprevention sectors.

GCM-RCM-ESD matrix
HadGEM-AO

ERA-interim

MM5 RegCM4

HadGEM3RA

MPI-ESM-LR and more..

WRF CCLM

Statistical Downscaling(PRIDE)

Simulation Results forced by
ERA-interim reanalysis

Temperature Bias against w/ APHRODITE(1981-2005)

Summer (JJA)

Winter (DJF)

Ensemble

WRF

Ensemble

WRF

CCLM

MM5

CCLM

MM5

RegCM4-CE

RegCM4-BG

RegCM4-CE

RegCM4-BG

Precipitation Bias against w/ APHRODITE(1981-2005)

Summer (JJA)

Winter (DJF)

Ensemble

WRF

Ensemble

WRF

CCLM

MM5CCLM

MM5RegCM4-CE

RegCM4-BG

RegCM4-CE

RegCM4-BG

East Asia Summer Monsoon

10 6 km 2(Area, Intensity, Period)
OBS

ERA-inteirm

Whole Domain

East-Asia

CCLM• Underestimation is caused byless monsoon in southern
China.
• Features in mid-latitudes lookclose to observation.

East Asia Summer Monsoon(Area, Intensity, Period)
EASM Index

Monsoon Precipitation

Wang et al. (2008)

ERA-interim

CCLM

mm/dayOBS(Wang et al. 2008)

Correlation: 0.93

Overestimation of monsoon
precipitation, but fairly good inter-annualvariation in East Asia.

East Asia Summer Monsoon(Area, Intensity, Period)
OBS (APHRODITE)

Onset

Withdraw

CCLM

Onset

Withdraw• Definition: Period in which the precipitation from 12 harmonics isabove 6 mm/day (Wang and LinHo, 2002).
• Monsoon in CCLM starts 5 days earlier, and lasts 16 more days.

Tropical Cyclones(Numbers, Intensity)
RSMC

GenesisMM5 (50km)

MM5 (25km)

Track Density

Numbers

RSMC

MM5 (50 km)

MM5 (25 km)

17.5

20.6

21.0

Tropical Cyclones(Numbers, Intensity)
RSMC
MM5(50)MM5(25)

RSMC

RSMC
MM5(50)MM5(25)MM5 (50 km)MM5 (25 km)

Mean

Max/Min

Mean

Max/Min

Mean

Max/Min

Max Wind(m/s)

38.0

61.7

27.7

39.9

34.7

47.3

Min Press(hPa)

956.1

890.0

978.6

932.8

970.1

918.2

Added-values in higher-resolution- Precipitation PDF -Preliminary Results from HCST
simulations with GCM forcing

Temperature Bias
against w/ APHRODITE (historical: 1981-2005)

Summer (JJA)

Winter (DJF)

APHRODITE

Ensemble

APHRODITE

Ensemble

RG4-HG2

MM5-HG2

RG4-HG2

MM5-HG2

CCLM-MPI

WRF-MPI

CCLM-MPI

WRF-MPIPrecipitation Bias
against w/ APHRODITE (historical: 1981-2005)

Summer (JJA)

Winter (DJF)

APHRODITE

Ensemble

APHRODITE

Ensemble

RG4-HG2

MM5-HG2

RG4-HG2

MM5-HG2

CCLM-MPI

WRF-MPI

CCLM-MPI

WRF-MPI

Monsoon Precipitation(regressed coefficients responding to WF index from CCLM)
Historical 기간 동안 몬순지수에 반응하는 강수 회귀계수의 공간분포(mm/day)(mm/day)

Meiyu-Baiu-Changma(mm/day)

Northwestern PacificMonsoon Onset/Withdraw
Observation
CCLM-Evaluation
Historical (1981-2005)
RCP45 (2006-2050)
RCM85 (2006-2050)

HistoricalMonsoonDateOBS

Onset

22. JUN

Withdraw
Duration

RCP45

RCP85

CCLM-E
GCM

CCLM

GCM

CCLM

GCM

CCLM

16. JUN

01. JUL

11.MAY

29.JUN

03. JUNx

15. JUN

06. SEP

13. SEP

02. JUL

09.SEP

05.JUL

06. SEPx

10. SEP

77 days

90 days

2 days122 days

7 days96 daysNo days

88 daysExtreme IndicesEDTR95p

TX95p

OBS

ERA-i

RegCM4(25km) RegCM4(12km)

Summary• For the new domain of CORDEX-EA new domain,

evaluation and historical simulations have been finished, andscenario runs are on-going.

• From the individual model results, we found some added
value in high-resolution simulations - needs more robust
analysis with model ensemble.

• Simulations with additional GCM forcing will be designedsoon.

• Welcome to share outputs with other groups in Japan, China,and others for collaboration.

Some Issues• We need to setup GCM-RCD matrix for CORDEX-CORE:••••

5 RCMs and 3 GCMs at least.
As a diagnostic MIP of CMIP6, DECK simulations (entrycard) are essential. What about CORDEX-CORE?
ESGF node for data exchange - APCC and KMA will setup
next year.
Fast-track to share outputs within East-Asia and Asia
communities for publications to meet AR6 timeline.
How ESD group can contribute to CORDEX and CORDEXCORE in the context of common framework (e.g., domain,resolution, period, forcing, and etc.)

Thanks for yourAttention!