Climate information
for industrial operators～ Using climate information
to reduce the inﬂuence of weather! ～Part of a JMA project to promote climate risk reduction invarious industries using two-week forecasts.
Two processes are particularly important in taking
advantage of extreme climate conditions (such as heatwaves and cold spells) and reducing related risks : (1)quantitative evaluation to determine the influence of theclimate using weather observation data, and (2) appropriate
response based on the utilization of climate prediction datasuch as Early Warning information on Extreme Weather(two-week forecasts). Details of climate risk management(CRM) for the apparel industry are provided below.

Japan Meteorological Agency

① Climate risk evaluation in the apparel industry～ Relationship between apparel sales and climate ～●Relationship between long boot sales and temperature
35

Resarch result

Bold fine line ： Daily average temperature
Pale thick line ： Sales of long boots※Both data：７- day moving averaged

30

Comment from a contributing company
It has become clear that the threshold
temperature will always be 20℃, eventhough the time when the sales of longboots increase may vary by up to two or
three weeks.

20122013

2520

Sales

Temperature (℃)

Sales of long boots increase
remarkably when the daily averagetemperature falls below 20℃.

2011

15
1050

8/1

9/1

10/1
Date

11/1

12/1

●Relationships between sales ratios of five major innerwear items and temperature
100%

30

Resarch result

Innerwear tops

90%

Innerwear bottoms
Brassiere

25

Shorts
Girdle70%

Daily average temperature (observed)
Daily average temperature (normal)

60%

The sales ratio of innerwear
increased/decreaced with afall/rise in temperature.

50%
40%

201530%20%

Temperature (℃)

Ratios of sales composition

80%

The sales ratio of innerwear increases
from the end of September andfluctuates finely with changes intemperature.

Comment from a contributing company
It’ s surprising that the sales ratio of each item
shows clear changes in line with temperature.
The results help us discuss store promotions
in consideration of temperature forecasts.

1010%
0%

9/1

10/1

11/1

Date (2013)

12/1

5

●Relationship between blouson sales and temperature
35

Resarch resultComment from a contributing company
Through this research, we found aclear relationship between sales andtemperature. We are sure that effective
use of climate information will help toboost sales.

※Both data ：７- day moving averaged

30

25

20

15

105
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :AugustOther studies and details :2009
2010
2011

Sales

Temperature(℃)

Sales of blouson increases as thetemperature drops in early autumn.
Sales increase remarkably when thedaily average temperature falls below25℃.

Bold fine line ： Daily average temperature
Pale thick line ： Sales of blson

September

Week number
OctoberNovember

December

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/en/apparel.html

This research was conducted to establish best practices in CRM in line with a recommendation from Japan’s Council for Transport Policy.
The research was conducted in collaboration with the Japan Apparel Fashion Industry Council (JAFIC).

② Climate risk treatment in the apparel industry～ Measures based on two-week forecasts ～Case study
involving ashoe company

The research results indicate that sales of long boots increase remarkably
when the average temperature falls below 20℃.

Two-week forecasts can be used to decide appropriate action
in retail environments as outlined below.

STEP 1

STEP 3Threshold ：20.0℃
Probability：83％

Access theIn this case, the probability of
the average temperature

Probability

forecast web

prpbabilty density

two-weekpage.(※1)
A case of Tokyo（selectable）▲

STEP 2
Move this bar to thetarget temperature(20℃ in this case).

Weekly averaged temperature and anomaly (℃)

falling below 20℃ in thecoming two-week period is83%. Measures can beplanned accordingly.

Plan:
Stock up on long boots,
strengthen in-store promotion,etc.

Effective measures suggested by contributing companies
Change the volume ofarranged items.

Start proactive
recommendation oftarget items.

Strengthen visualmerchandising (VMD).

Adjust the volume ofstock delivered fromwarehouses to stores.

Climate risk management in other sectors
Agriculture（※2）

Electricity SupplyPeriod

Threshold temperature

Anxious disease

To cope with the critical issue ofFrom mid-July to thebeginning of August

20℃ or lessBarren obstacleelectricity supply, JMA issues forecasts

first 10 days of August

20℃ or lessBarren obstacleof maximum high temperatures for theDuring August

27℃ or more

Heat damage

period two weeks ahead.

Rice crops are influenced by temperature
at each stage of growth (see table).
Agricultural weather information using

This information is utilized for electricity
forecasts made by all electrical powercompanies.

JMA’ s temperature prediction up to twoweeks ahead is issued tentatively (※3)
and this information is useful for working
out measures to extreme weather.
（※1）http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/probability（※2）To establish best practices in CRM in line in the agricultural industry, JMA and the National Agriculture and Food Research
Organization (NARO) have started a pilot project to develop an early warning system using two-week forecasts. It is showed part of theresults here.
（※3）This information was provided by ”crops warning information using weather prediction data by Google Map” operated by NARO

Useful tools for climate risk management
Web site for climate risk management
Detailed descriptions and CRM case studies are provided
on the JMA web page.
ClimatologyPrediction

Early Warning
Information

Manufacture
Agriculture

Finance

HealthAdministration

Fisheries
EnergyRetailClimate conditions affect various industries!

(Kanno,1997)

Using climate information to reduce the influence of weather!

[JMA NWP]

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/en/

Climate risk evaluation — Evaluation using weather observation data ̶・Histrical data on weather observations by the Automated Meteorological
Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) are made available.
・Target temperature is comparable with normal temperature, severalyear-average temperature, and etc.
・Data can be downloaded in .csv file format.

※ Japanese only
Histrical weather observation data download page

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/obsdl

Climate risk treatment — Use of forecasts ̶
Early Warning information on Extreme Weather

Temperature probability forecast page・Data on 7-day-average

・This information is issued

temperature for coming

every Monday and Thursday

two weeks is madewhen extreme climate

available.

conditions are predicted up

・The probability ofto two weeks ahead.

temperatures being higher

・Temperature probability

or lower than expected canforecasts which is the basisbe found.

of this information are also
made available.

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/en/soukei/

Information on weather, earthquakes and oceans
can be found on the JMA website.
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html※ Japanese only

・Data can be downloadedin .csv file format.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/probability/

JMA Global Environment and Marine Department
Climate Prediction Division
1-3-4, Otemachi Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo.
E-mail : tcc@met.kishou.go.jp