2020 V

15, 22 and 29 July 2020
[JST]IRIDeS, Tohoku University
Laboratory of International Strategy for Disaster Mitigation,
Regional and Urban Reconstruction Research Division468-1-S401 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai
980-8572 Japan
http://aprumh.irides.tohoku.ac.jp/

The APRU International Secretariat
3019, 3/F, IAS Building, HKUSTClear Water Bay, Hong Kong
https://apru.org/

Cover Photo : rawpixel.com Freepik

Editor in chief
Takako Izumi (Associate Professor, IRIDeS, Tohoku University)

Editorial Staff
Sayaka Kobayashi (Administrative Assistant, IRIDeS, Tohoku University)

2

CONTENTS

Background…………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
Opening remarks…………………………………………………………………………………… 7
Presentations………………………………………………………………………………………… 13
Session I: Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami………………… 15
Session II: Role of various stakeholders in disaster risk reduction……………………………… 21
Session III: Latest research in disaster science…………………………………………………… 31
Annex……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 37

4

Background

Background

Since the start of this year, the entire world has been battling an unprecedented challenge thatis COVID-19. The pandemic has also had a serious impact on higher education, necessitatinga shift to online education and virtual classes. While both students and faculty have had totackle complex challenges in this transformation, it has also provided an opportunity to reachout to students from all over the world, share lectures, and exchange thoughts and researchfindings widely.

APRU is a network of 55 premier research universities from 18 economies around thePacific Rim. The International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) in Tohoku

University was established in April 2012 as a new integrated interdisciplinary researchteam aiming at conducting world leading research on natural disaster science and disastermitigation leaning from and building upon past lessons in disaster management from Japanand around the world. IRIDeS also provides secretariat services as the regional program hub
to the MH Program.

The MH Program was established in April 2013. The Pacific Rim region has high risks

to natural disasters and the universities and research institutes in the region are expected

to contribute to reducing disaster vulnerability and risks and strengthening disastermanagement capacity to tackle these challenges. The Program aims to harness the collective
capabilities of APRU universities for cutting-edge research on disaster risk reduction (DRR)

as well as contribute to international policy making processes on DRR. The Summer School is
one of the key activities under the MH Program.
●
●
●

●

The key activities of the MH Program include:

Organization of the annual summer school

Organization of the annual APRU MH Symposium

Foster collaboration in disaster research and information/data sharing between APRU
universities

Contribute to DRR discussions at international and regional levels and to a policy making
process.

The MH Program has organized the summer school since 2013, and this is its 8th year. Due tothe impact of COVID-19, the 8th edition of the summer school had to be conducted virtually. It

was unfortunate to not be able to meet the participants in person, but it made it possible toconnect with 842 people worldwide.

One of the major activities under the MH Program, the virtual summer school this year had

3 sessions, and the topic of each was as follows:1)

Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (July 15, 2020 JST)

(Attendance: 263)

52) Roles of various stakeholders in disaster risk reduction (July 22, 2020 JST) (299)3) Latest research in disaster science (July 29, 2020 JST) (280)

It is designed in a way that facilitates learning from the experience of local governments,

NGOs, and academia, and includes lectures covering not only the natural sciences but also thesocial sciences to enable the participants to understand the diverse elements of DRR.

It is hoped that the next summer school can be held in Sendai. The regular summer school

includes a one-day field trip to the site affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake andTsunami of 2011. It provides an opportunity to understand the actual recovery efforts andhow the experience and lessons learned are shared, especially for future generations. At thesame time, this pandemic has provided a new insight into disaster risk management beyond
natural hazards, and it will be an important topic for discussion at the 2021 summer school.

Acknowledgement
This year’s virtual summer school was operated by the APRU secretariat in Hong Kong using

the Zoom video platform. I would like to express my sincere appreciation for their excellent
work and support; without their knowledge, skills, and hard work, it would not have beenpossible. In addition, I would like to convey my appreciation for the audience worldwide,

who participated in the sessions despite the different time zones. Last but not the least, I am
grateful for the continuous and wonderful support provided by the staff of the International

Strategy for Disaster Mitigation Division of IRIDeS and the Global Engagement Division,
Tohoku University.

6

7

Prof. Toshiya Ueki
Executive Vice President for General Affairs, Financial Affairs andInternational Relations, Tohoku University

It is a great pleasure for me to welcome you to “the APRU-IRIDeS Multi-Hazards Virtual
Summer School.” Unfortunately, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, I was unable to meetyou in person and extend my welcome remarks. Despite the difficulties involved, I hope thesituation will be resolved in the near future.

Natural disasters have been serious concerns for many years, especially in Asia. We havealready observed an increase in the number and scale of natural disasters, especially due

to climate change, urbanization, population density, and environmental degradation. Even

recently, several areas in Japan were severely affected by heavy rains and floods. Every
year, we witness such devastating floods everywhere in the country. This undeniable factemphasizes the importance of an early warning, understanding of a hazard map, and an
immediate decision to evacuate to protect lives and assets.

To tackle these global challenges, three important international agreements were adopted

in 2015—the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Paris agreement, and the Sendai

Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. In particular, the Sendai Framework was adopted at

the UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Sendai in 2015. The support andcontribution by universities and academia are essential to implement the Sendai Framework,

which is based on several interdisciplinary studies and the application of science andtechnology. We are expected to support action by local communities and authorities as well as
the interface between policy and science for decision-making.

On March 11, next year, it will be ten years since the occurrence of the Great East Japan

Earthquake and tsunami. To contribute to the recovery efforts and provide technical support

to the process, Tohoku University established the International Research Institute of Disaster

Science (IRIDeS) in 2013. Through this, we have always aimed to share our globally gained
knowledge and experience from several interdisciplinary studies and contribute to building
a society resilient to natural disasters. IRIDeS also launched the Multi-Hazards Program

together with the Association of Pacific Rim Universities (APRU) in April 2013. Since then,
IRIDeS has become the hub and coordinator of the program activities. This summer school
is one of the major events under the Multi-Hazards Program. The regular summer school
includes a field trip to the site affected by the tsunami in 2011, where one can learn therecovery process and lessons acquired from the experience of local people. Though wecannot take you to these places because of the current pandemic, hopefully, we will be able toorganize the summer school in Sendai next year, in which you can participate.

The experience of COVID-19 reminded us that disaster risks are not only natural but also

biological, chemical, and industrial, to which we are vulnerable. The Sendai Framework alsoemphasizes that “it applies to the risk caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as

related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. It aims to guide the8multi-hazard management of disaster risk in development at all levels as well as within andacross all sectors.” We need to make further efforts to tackle and reduce the risks of thesedifferent types of disasters. The responsibilities and tasks assigned to us are now much more

Opening remarks

difficult and complicated, and further collaboration among different sectors is necessary. I
look forward to engaging in collaborative research and activities with you in the future.

To conclude, I would like to thank the APRU secretariat for their kind support in organizing

this virtual summer school. I wish you every success in this virtual summer school program.

9

Prof. Fumihiko Imamura
Professor and Director, IRIDeS, Tohoku University

I would like to welcome all of you to the APRU-IRIDeS Multi-Hazards (MH) virtual summer

school, organized by the Association of Pacific Rim Universities (APRU) and the International
Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University. The MH Program wasestablished in April 2013, and IRIDeS has played a crucial role as its secretariat, providing
coordination and administrative services.

As you know, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 caused serious

damage, especially in the Tohoku region. To share the experience with universities globallyand maximize it for further disaster risk reduction research and practical implementation,
Tohoku University discussed the possibility of establishing a program with the APRU

secretariat—this gave birth to the MH Program in 2013. Immediately after, the core group
under it was formed with 12 members from the University of California Davis, Universityof Hawaii, University of Chile, Chulalongkorn University, Tsinghua University, University ofPhilippines, University of Tokyo, and Tohoku University. They are all very active and work as
decision-making bodies.

The MH Program has two main objectives. The first one is to harness the collective

capabilities of APRU universities, especially for cutting-edge research on disaster risk
reduction. The program comprises a group of experts with different backgrounds suchas engineering, natural sciences, social and human sciences, and medical. It is important
for researchers from such diverse backgrounds to conduct joint research to identify anddevelop innovative tools, products, and approaches in DRR. The second one is to contributeto international and regional discussions to influence DRR policymaking processes. I believe
this is possible through our activities such as the campus safety program, collaborative

research, data sharing, and sharing the research findings at international and regional
conferences and events. For instance, IRIDeS and the MH Program actively contributed to the
UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Sendai in 2015, where the Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction was adopted.

Though this year’s summer school had to be virtual due to COVID-19, we were able toshare knowledge, experiences, and lessons learned from the 2011 disaster, and it is IRIDeS’s
responsibility. You can also learn from the various experiences of different sectors such as
the government and NGOs, as well as researchers from Asia and the US. This is the second

session from a webinar series of 3. We have 3 excellent speakers: Dr. Takako Izumi from
IRIDeS, Mr. Takeshi Komino, CWS Japan, and Dr. Mikio Ishiwatari from the University of Tokyoand the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Most of us live in the ring of fire in the Pacific Ocean, and it is not possible to control or

avoid natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, and floods. However,10the idea and concept of building back better after the destruction left behind by a serious

calamity can reduce future disaster risks and damage. We should consider living in harmony
with nature.

Opening remarks

Thank you very much for your attention. I hope you will learn something from today’s

excellent speakers.

11

12

13

14

Session I
Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

15Medical and Public Health Resilience
Shinichi Egawa

Professor, IRIDeS, Tohoku University

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) described for the first time as a DRR framework thatdisaster affects health. Sendai Framework aims to reduce a) mortality, b) affected people, c) direct economic

loss by implementations of d) infrastructure, e) national and local strategies, f) international cooperation, and g)
multi-hazard early warning system. Sendai Framework targets to reduce the damage to critical infrastructures,

especially hospitals and schools. These movements are because of the imperative of health as a fundamental
human right. Heath cluster is one of the DRR clusters to improve preparedness and efficient response.

After 1995 Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, Japan has established national disaster medical system

including Disaster Base Hospitals, Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT), Staging Care Unit andTransportation System, Emergency Medical Information System (EMIS) and Disaster Medical Coordinators.

This system helped many lives in 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and following disasters. However,every disaster has difference in medical and public health needs. Especially after GEJE, the change of medical
needs in non-communicable diseases and mental health were more remarkable rather than trauma (Suda

2019). This was because of change of human community itself including resilient buildings, aging of thecommunity, urbanization and technological improvement and focusing more on mental health. Additional
improvements of the national disaster medical system include the nation-wide implementation of disastermedical coordinators (Egawa 2017), improvement of EMIS function and various liaisons for children,

hemodialysis patients, Disaster Psychiatry Assistance Team (DPAT), Japan Rehabilitation Assistance Team(JRAT), Disaster Health Emergency Assistance Team (DHEAT) and so on. Those teams join the medical

coordination sector in the prefectural disaster headquarters in the periodical disaster drills co-organized by
Cabinet Office of Japan assuming South Trough Earthquake in near future. Thus, flexibility and preparednessof medical and public health response is mandatory. Academia can contribute by research and development toimprove disaster medicine.

16There is a negative correlation between life expectancy (LE) and the INFORM disaster risk index thatvalidates the hypothesis “healthy society is a resilient society against disaster” (Egawa 2018). Japan is acountry with high risk of natural hazards, but Japan has high LE, less vulnerability and more coping capacity.

The effort to make the LE high is not the task of health sector alone. Economical development, resilient andfunctional infrastructure, good road and communications assuring the accessibility to the health system andhuman development totally makes the LE high and INFORM risk low. Several health-related risk indices in

INFORM risk correlates with the LE negatively suggesting that social determinants of health also correlates

Presentations

with disaster risk.

In conclusion, DRR should be people-centered and the collaboration of health and all other DRR clusters

is the best way to protect people’s physical and mental health understanding the change of health risks in
disaster.

References:1.

Suda T, Murakami A, Nakamura Y, Sasaki H, Tsuji I, Sugawara Y, Hatsugai K, Nishizawa M, Egawa S.

2.

Egawa S, Suda T, Jones-Konneh TEC, Murakami A, Sasaki H. Nation-Wide Implementation of Disaster3.

Medical Needs in Minamisanriku Town after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Tohoku J Exp Med. 2019
Jun; 248(2): 73-86. https://doi.org/10.1620/tjem.248.73

Medical Coordinators in Japan. Tohoku J Exp Med. 2017; 243(1): 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1620/tjem.243.1

Egawa S, Jibiki Y, Sasaki D, Ono Y, Nakamura Y, Suda T, Sasaki H. The correlation between life expectancy
and disaster risk. Journal of Disaster Research 2018; 13(6): 1049-1061. https://doi.org/10.20965/
jdr.2018.p1049

17

Mitigating People and Disasters: Approaches ofSocial Sciences
Sébastien P. Boret

Associate Professor, IRIDeS, Tohoku University

During his lecture "Mitigating People and Disasters: Approaches of Social Sciences", Dr. Boret offered an

introduction to some of the fundamental concepts used to explain the socio-cultural processes that areassociated with disasters. They include ideas of risk, vulnerability, and resilience. His discussion drew froma broad range of case studies that span from disasters induced by natural hazards to those human-driven
catastrophes.

The first part of the lecture considered the basic assumption that disasters are not events but the products ofsocial and cultural developments that may begin long before and end long after the events. Using the metaphorof a car accident, Dr. Boret explained that the collective behaviors that precedes (humanenvironment relation,

development, preparedness, social inequality) and follow (reconstruction, solidarity, spiritual care, financial
aids, political leadership) a catastrophe contribute respectfully to the cause and the impact of a disaster.

In the second part, Dr. Boret introduced the ideas of risk associated with the set of opportunities that

produces our environment. Using the example of an Indonesian people living by an active volcanic mountain,

he explained that risk is not be an objective fact but depends on people’s perception that in turns dictates theirdisaster mitigation through socio-ecological adaptation. However, he also explained that for social scientists
the perception and adaptation to risk are themselves dependent on political, economic, and social forces. As
such, social scientists believe that people are more often than not the cause of their exposition to risk.

The third part engaged with the central notion of vulnerability. In disaster science, vulnerability is the degree

to which people are exposed to risks. Social research shows that this exposure is rooted in ethnicity, class,gender, disability, age, poverty, education and other socio-cultural factors, and therefore varies among andwithin communities. Using examples such the shipwreck of the Titanic and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami,
Dr. Boret examplified how particular factors such as gender and social class can explain the preponderance ofa category of victims over another. He then argued that the identification of these causes via forensic researchshould be an integral part of disaster mitigation in order to reduce inequalities in the face of disasters.

Relating to vulnerability, the fourth concept introduced in this lecture was resilience. Originally used in civilengineering, this term came to refer by social analogy, to the capacity of a group of people to resist and adapt
to disasters. Referring to recent studies in Indonesia and the Pacific region, Dr. Boret introduced elements ofsocial resilience including oral tradition as well as more complex economic and political adaptations. Taking

the example of global warming, however, he noted that the increased resilience of some people could create thevulnerability of others.

To conclude, Dr. Boret proposed that the approaches of social sciences provide a comprehensive albeit

complex perspective of disaster mitigation. He advised against the recent trends that favour the study ofresilience over vulnerability. His assertion echoed the view that the concept of vulnerability should not be

conceived as a "negative" and the direct opposite of resilience but as its complementary approach. Putting thisvision in a nutshell, he stated that "disaster mitigation must uproot the causes of vulnerability and innovate thesolutions for resilience."

18

Urban Disaster Risk Reduction:
Japan as a disaster-prone country and learningfrom past disasters
Osamu Murao

Professor, IRIDeS, Tohoku University

Japan is one of the disaster-prone counties, having earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, typhoons,heavy rains, or floods. The presentation given by Prof. Murao at the Multi-Hazards Summer School 2018 was
about Japanese disaster risk reduction experiences, consisted of the following five topics:
1) How do you evaluate urban disaster risk?
2) Disaster Life Cycle

3) Sendai Framework and “Build Back Better”
4) 1934 Hakodate Great Fire

Presentations

5) Japan as a Disaster-prone Country and Learning from the Past Disasters

The presentation started with a question, “How do you evaluate urban disaster risk?” and explained urban

disaster risk with definitions of “hazard,” “vulnerability,” and “exposed value.” The second topic focused on“Disaster Life Cycle,” an idea to deal with disaster management with sequential phases, “emergency response,”“recovery,” “mitigation,” and “preparedness.” Then Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which

was adopted at the third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, was explained, with Build Back
Better concept as the third topic. Japanese people have learnt many things from those disastrous experiences
to make societies safer. The presentation introduced the 1934 Hakodate Great Fire and how the disasterchanged the urban fabric in the process of post-disaster recovery, followed by other important recovery cases
in Japanese history.

19

20

Session II
Role of various stakeholders in disaster risk reduction21

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Page 2

Senior Director (Policy & Programs),
SeniorAPRU
Director (Policy & Programs), APRUDay II , July 23, 2020

8th Multi-Hazards Summer School
Page –2 virtual mode
July 2020

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8th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode
July 2020

Day II , July 23, 2020

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Page 322

8thMulti-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode
July 2020

Australia
Australian National University
Monash University
The University of Melbourne
The University of Queensland
The University of Sydney
UNSW Sydney

CanadaThe University of British Columbia
Chile
University of Chile

China & Hong Kong SAR
Fudan University
Nanjing University
Peking University
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
The Hong Kong University of Science andTechnology
The University of Hong Kong
Tsinghua University
University of Science and Technology of
China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xi’an Jiaotong University
Zhejiang University

Colombia
Universidad de los Andes

Ecuador
Universidad San Francisco de
Quito
Indonesia
University of Indonesia
Japan
Keio University
Nagoya University
Osaka University
Tohoku University
Waseda University

Korea
Korea University
KAIST
POSTECH
Seoul National University
Yonsei University
Malaysia
University of Malaya

Philippines
University of the Philippines

RussiaFar Eastern Federal University

Singapore
Nanyang Technological University
National University of Singapore
Thailand
Chulalongkorn University

USA
California Institute of Technology
University of California, Berkeley
University of California, Davis
University of California, Los Angeles
University of California, Riverside
University of California, San Diego
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Cruz
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
University of Oregon
University of Southern California
University of Washington

MexicoTecnológico de Monterrey
Page 48th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode

July 2020

22

APRU draws on the extensive and diverse research capacity of its 55 members across the region
to collaborate across 8 program areas including:

Asia Pacific Women on Leadership

22

APRU Members
Australia
Australian National University
Monash University
The University of Melbourne
The University of Queensland
The University of Sydney
UNSW Sydney
CanadaThe University of British Columbia
Chile
University of Chile

We bring together thought leaders, researchers,
and policy-makers to exchange ideas andcollaborate on effective solutions to thechallenges of the 21st century.

Page 3China & Hong Kong SAR
Fudan University
Nanjing University
Peking University
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
The Hong Kong University of Science andTechnology
The University of Hong Kong
Tsinghua University
University of Science and Technology of
China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xi’an Jiaotong University
Zhejiang University

Chinese Taipei
National Taiwan University
National Tsing Hua University
Colombia
Universidad de los Andes
Ecuador
Universidad San Francisco de
Quito
Indonesia
University of Indonesia
Japan
Keio University
Nagoya University
Osaka University
Tohoku University
Waseda University
Korea
Korea University
KAIST
POSTECH
Seoul National University
Yonsei University
Malaysia
University of Malaya

Philippines
University of the Philippines
RussiaFar Eastern Federal University
Singapore
Nanyang Technological University
National University of Singapore
Thailand
Chulalongkorn University
USA
California Institute of Technology
University of California, Berkeley
University of California, Davis
University of California, Los Angeles
University of California, Riverside
University of California, San Diego
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Cruz
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
University of Oregon
University of Southern California
University of Washington

MexicoTecnológico de Monterrey
Page 4Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode
July 2020
8th

New Zealand
University of Auckland

8th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode

July 2020

APRU draws on the extensive and diverse research capacity of its 55 members across the region
to collaborate across 8 program areas including:

Asia Pacific Women on Leadership

APRU draws on
extensiveand diverse research capacity of its 55 members across the region to collaborate
 theDigitalEconomyacross 8 program
areas including: Global
Health• Asia Pacific Women on LeadershipMulti-Hazards• Digital Economy



Pacific Ocean• Global Health

Population Aging• Multi-Hazards

 Sustainable
Cities and Landscapes• Pacific
Ocean Sustainable• Population
Aging Waste Management

Presentations• Sustainable Cities and Landscapes• Sustainable
Waste
Management
Collaboration
withinthese
expert networks and with external partners will for example improve

the sustainability of life in today’s cities, respond to the need to create more resilient communities

Collaboration
withinexpertnetworks
and withrisk
external
partners
will forimprovetheby promoting
andthese
driving
forwardcollaborative
reduction
research
to example
inform policy
makerssustainability of life in today’s cities, respond to the need to create more resilient communities by promoting

or will provide better understanding how AI will transform the future of labour and allow for theseand driving forward collaborative risk reduction research to inform policy makers or will provide better

insights to be share with policy makers in the region. APRU programs and their engaging member

understanding how AI will transform the future of labour and allow for these insights to be share with policy

institutions bridge gaps in capacity and support and connect emerging researchers to their peers

makers in the region. APRU programs and their engaging member institutions bridge gaps in capacity andand external
partnersfromindustry,togovernments
foundations
the Pacific
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emerging
researchers
their peers andandexternal
partners aroundfrom industry,
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a more sustainable and inclusive future.
APRU Multi-Hazards
Program•Capacity Building•

Education for Resilience•

Impact & Advocacy

APRU PARTNERS

Progress in Disaster Science:
New Multi-Hazards Journal
MH Summer School
MH Campus Safety Workshop

30 Innovation for Disaster Risk Reduction
2nd Edition

Page 98th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode

July 2020

Page 88th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode
July 2020

23

23

The APRU Multi-Hazards Program, hosted by the International Research Institute of Disaster Risk
Reduction (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University aims to build safer and more resilient societies. Key

The APRU Multi-Hazards Program, hosted by the International Research Institute of Disaster Risk Reduction

objectives are to strengthen research capacity in disaster science, foster collaboration across the(IRIDeS) at Tohoku University aims to build safer and more resilient societies. Key objectives are to strengthen

region and contribute to the international policy process.

research capacity in disaster science, foster collaboration across the region and contribute to the international
policy process.

Now more than ever with the threat to public health presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, APRU

has animportantplay toaspublic
a facilitator
network
in working
Now morethanever withrole
thetothreathealth andpresented
by theCOVID-19collectively
pandemic, andAPRUproactively
has anin knowledgeand researchcollaborations.
importantrole to playsharing
as a facilitatorand network
in working collectively and proactively in knowledgesharing and research collaborations.

APRU.orgResources

Programs

Higher
Education

Students
Page 1024

8th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode

July 2020

Download the Full Report at www.apru.org/resources/
Page 11

8th Multi-Hazards Summer School – virtual mode

July 2020

Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction (SFDRR): the role of stakeholders
Takako Izumi

Associate Professor, IRIDeS, Tohoku University

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) was adopted by 187 countries at the United

Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Sendai city in March 2015. Since then, it has
become a global blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts for 2015–2030. It includes 4 priority
actions:

Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk

Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk
Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience

Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for an effective response and to “Build Back Better” during

Presentations

recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction.

Prior to this framework, another international document “Hyogo Framework for Action” adopted in 2005

existed. Between 2005 and 2015, there was some progress in DRR, such as increase in awareness of it and theactive participation of various stakeholders in DRR activities; however, further efforts were required.

The SFDRR highlights the stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities in DRR, and the roles of academia are

addressed as follows:

1) Focus on disaster risk factors and scenarios

2) Increase research on regional, national, and local applications3) Support action by local communities and authorities

4) Support the interface between policy and science for decision-making

In addition to research and education, which are the traditional roles of academia, the expectation includes

providing support to local communities and authorities and contributing in the decision-making process.

Academia may not be familiar with these roles and may struggle with managing different and additionaltasks; however, it is crucial to understand these expectations from this community and consider how to carryout these roles.

Furthermore, there is now a greater need for the MH approach. Focusing on not only natural hazards

but also the COVID-19 experience has made our future challenges and the need for tackling clear in theframework of disaster risk reduction. The SFDRR also states that it will apply to the risk of small-scale andlarge-scale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or manmade hazards aswell as related environmental, technological, and biological hazards and risks. It aims to guide the multi-hazard
management of disaster risk in development at all levels as well as within and across all sectors.
It is necessary for us to start discussions and dialogue with experts on these different hazards on how tocollaborate to achieve an all-hazards approach to make our communities more resilient.

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26

Emerging Trends and the Role of NGOs / Civil Society
Organizations
Takeshi Komino

General Secretary, CWS Japan

The Asian region, where we, live is heavily affected by natural hazards, which is apparent from various
data; Asia accounts for more than half of disaster casualties in the world. We are seeing increasing trend
in global warming, and weather pattern has clearly changed. As a result, hydro meteorological disasters

and climatological disaster are on the rise. In addition, we are seeing over 30 conflicts in the world on top
of natural disaster risks, and average years of emergency appeals currently is 9.3 years, so prolonged crisis

becoming regular phenomenon. But resources aren’t increasing, and there is a need for innovation so that wecan produce more positive impact with existing resources.

When we think of risks, it’s not only about one particular hazard risk, but multiple risks have

Presentations

interconnectedness and there are chain reactions. For example, severe weather patterns put stress on

agriculture and trigger migration. Migration to cities trigger more construction. More construction trigger
more stagnant water, which is breeding space for mosquitoes, and as a consequence, dengue fever increasethat could lead to health emergency. Things are connected, and this is the new normal we live in. On topof this, COVID-19 is posing further risks and different age groups or pre-existing health conditions lead todifferent risks.

During Hyogo Framework for Action implementation, there was significant progress on governance andinstitution for disaster management. In implementing Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, there

is more focus on local risk governance. However, in COVID-19 pandemic, risks are personalized, and different
actions are required at household level, which cannot be done, and this is significant challenge for Japan too.

In this new normal age, individual actions are required. Policies need to influence people’s actions, andthis is where CSOs’ greatest role is; there are things government can do, and can’t do, and personalized
solution is often the most difficult. Self-help and mutual-help need to be strengthened, and DRR needs to beembedded in our lives. Different actors have different roles and it is partnership against unprecedented risks
we face. Challenges are immense, but they are also opportunity for us to improve and transform.

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Japanese experience and assistance in flood risk
management
Mikio Ishiwatari

Visiting Professor, The University of TokyoJapan is fighting against floods throughout its history, and using such experience to support other countries.

This presentation covers country’s response to recent flood disasters and Japanese assistance in developing
countries.
1.

Effective countermeasures against Typhoon Hagibis in the Greater Tokyo in 2019

Typhoon Hagibis caused widespread destruction in eastern and northern regions in Japan in October, 2019.
Because of heavy rainfall, river embankments were destroyed in 140 places in 71 rivers. Some 100 people
died and over 100,000 houses were inundated.

Presentations

Major part of the Greater Tokyo area was protected from flooding, while limited areas were inundated

because of improper operation of drainage gates. This is because the government has invested in constructing

flood protection facilities in major river basins for over one century to protect the strategic areas of thecountry from flooding. Without these facilities, Tokyo would have inundated, and the damage would havebeen far worse. The flood protection system consists of dams in upstream, reservoirs in middle stream, anddiversion channels in downstream.
2.

Integrated approach of flood risk management for development assistanceJapan has supported the Philippines to strengthen flood protection systems based on Japanese experienceand technology. In Metro Manila, the similar approach with the Greater Tokyo area was taken. River channels
were improved, pumping stations were installed, tidal gates and embankments were constructed.

In addition to structural measures, Japanese experience of software measures is used for projects in

Vietnam. The project activities cover strengthening capacities of government organizations, enhancing
community-based disaster management, and developing nature-based methods of protecting river bankerosion.

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Typhoon Hagibis threatened the Greater Tokyo Area

Tidal gate in Metro Manila

Evacuation shelter in Vietnam
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Session III
Latest research in disaster science

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Reenacting a National Legislation for Buildings:
Another Look at Multi-Hazards Resilience in A New Normal
Benito M. Pacheco

Professor, University of the Philippines Diliman

A short review of the history of national building regulation in the Philippines dating back to the 1970s is

followed with an overview of the proposed Philippine Building Act of 2020, presently in consideration by thenational Congress. There is now an added urgency for reforms as the pandemic has caused all to shelter at home
and work from home, highlighting the significance of buildings, structures, and houses.

Shelter is the recommended view of buildings, being the end-user’s point of view rather than the view of thearchitect or engineer. The argument is made that every building is a shelter first, and then more: contemplating
all types of use or occupancy. Far from ideal, shelters and the occupants are exposed and vulnerable to multiple

hazards, as evidenced by building-related disasters even in the past 40 years when a national building code has
been in force.

Example economies have confirmed dramatic reduction of mortality risks from natural hazards throughincremental improvements of the regulations for building and land use. With this in mind, a multi-disciplinary

team of the University of the Philippines (UP National Engineering Center in cooperation with UP Law Centerand professionals from various departments) facilitated a multi-year review of the National Building Code of thePhilippines (1977) and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (2005), and one of the recommendations is thereenactment of a new national legislation to replace the 1977 presidential decree: the Philippine Building Act
that was first proposed in 2018.

The proposed reforms start with clarifying the hierarchical framework of: (1) Act (by the Congress); (2)Regulations (and Rules, by the executive Departments); (3) and Reference Standards (by mandated agencies
and bodies, as promulgated by the lead Department). The Act addresses legal, administrative, and technical or

technological aspects. In the framework, much of the operational details of administration are delegated to the
Implementing Rules and Regulations, to be reformulated and recommended by the new inter-agency and multi-

sector Building Regulations and Standards Council. Much of the technical or technological details are delegatedto be to Reference Standards (formerly, referral codes), to updated by competent agencies and bodies, forrecommendation by the Council, and for promulgation by the National Building Official.

More specific legal reforms include: (a) streamline the building permit process, mainly by classifying into

simple, regular, and special buildings and matching each classification with commensurate regulations andstandards; (b) design buildings to be more resilient against multiple hazards, including evacuation buildings; (c)assess old buildings, every 15 years; (d) incentivize the retrofit of old buildings when deemed necessary; and (e)create the Building Regulations and Standards Council to review and update every five (5) years or sooner.

Many more reforms are embodied in the Act, including: mechanisms to harmonize local ordinances withnational; venues for appeals or complaints from the local level, to regional, and to national; and incentives forinnovation. Emphasizing equal importance of enforcement of and compliance with regulations and standards,
the Act provides that many share the responsibility for the resilience of our buildings.

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ca. 2003

Shelters are exposed and vulnerable to multiple
hazards. And so are we, the occupants.

1

1

B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29

GMMA RAP Study (2014) scenario of M7.2 earthquake:collapsed or completely damaged buildings would cause
37,000 fatalities in Greater Metro Manila Area

SINCE 1968: SELECTED MILESTONES

2

2

FRAMEWORK REFORM: PH

WE NEED THE REFORM TODAY, IN A
NEW NORMAL, AND IN THE FUTURE.
• Nat’l Econ & Dev’t Authority: We agree… to reformthe National Building Code [of 1977] in order toimprove and update said legal framework, andmake such more responsive and relevant to current
issues and developments.
• We: anticipate the emergent and the emerging.

3

3

B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29• Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022: Chapter
20…
B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29

Presentations

B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29

SHELTERS ARE VULNERABLE

1977

2020

• National Building Code:PD 1096• Other national
legislations such as Fire
Code of 2008
• Implementing Rules andRegulations• Referral Codes• Philippine Building Act of2018 …or 2019…or 2020
• Other national legislations
such as Fire Code of2008• Implementing Rules andRegulations• Reference Standards
4

4

MANY WILL SHARE RESPONSIBILITY

MAJOR LEGAL REFORMS• Streamline building permit process

5• Assess old buildings, every 15 years• Incentivize retrofit of old buildings• Create inter-agency and multi-sectoral Building
Regulations and Standards Council (BRSC) toreview and update every five (5) years or sooner
5

B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29

B. M. Pacheco 2020 July 29• Design buildings to be more resilient against multiple
hazards, including evacuation buildings

1977

2020

• Owner or Developer• Owner or Developer• Professional• Contractor• Official• Official
Liabilities are proportionate to thesize and cost of the building
6
project.

633

Forecasting and Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis:
Anticipating Great Natural Disasters Using Machine
Learning
John B Rundle

Distinguished Professor, University of California, Davis, USA

Prediction in the context of earthquakes can be regarded as the precise specification of time, location, andmagnitude of an impending earthquake. The process of producing a prediction generally involves a search for

hypothesized precursory phenomena. As discussed earlier, many studies have found that reliable earthquake
prediction, with associated estimates of successful predictions, false alarms, and failures to predict, is extremely
difficult, if not impossible.

On the other hand, forecasting is the specification of the probability of a future earthquake, usually withinsome level of confidence. To make a forecast, one must assume a probability law governing the system, anassumption that is subject to debate.

By contrast, a nowcast is the computation of the current state of risk of the system, often by proxy data (Rundle

et al.). Although a nowcast implies a level of near-future hazard, it is not explicitly stated. In this lecture, we
focus on the idea of nowcasting earthquakes.

Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining theuncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. By current time is meant thepresent, the immediate past, and the very near future. The main point of nowcasting is define the current levelof risk purely from data, without adopting or assuming any kind of probability distribution function to project
this information into the future.

We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of

the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In the implementation of thisidea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from"large" earthquakes in the region. An example is shown in the figure below.

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In this example, we show a nowcast for the Sanriku coast region of Japan. Green vertical bars in thehistogram represent intervals of small earthquakes between M≥8 earthquakes since 1900. The “small”

earthquakes are events having magnitudes 6≤M<8 worldwide The solid red line rising from lower left to upper
right is the Cumlative Distribution Function, constructed from the histogram. Dashed magenta lines are the 1σ

confidence intervals. The current count of small earthquakes within the Sanriku source region is 59, meaningthat this region is at a level of risk of 24.6% of the typical worldwide count between large earthquakes. The“thermometer is a visual representation of the current level of risk.

We have also focused on the development of realistic tsunami simulations using a method known as

Presentations“Tsunami Squares”, which is a cellular automaton approach to the basic hydrodynamic equations that describe
tsunamis. In the figure below, we show a simulation of a Pacific basin-wide simulation of the March 11, 2011
Great East Japan Tsunami.

Machine Learning. Machine Learning (ML) is a generic term that includes a variety of supervised andunsupervised methods to extract patterns and other types of information from data (refs). Methods of interestin this area include not only cluster analysis (Unsupervised learning), but also optimization (Supervised
learning), a form of regression. We are currently working on a number of methods based in ML that holdpromise for improving our ability. One of the important ideas is Decision Tree Analysis, an example of which
we show in the figure below.

35

Machine Learning. Machine Learning (ML) is a generic term that includes avariety of supervised and unsupervised methods to extract patterns and other types of
information from data (refs). Methods of interest in this area include not only cluster
analysis (Unsupervised learning), but also optimization (Supervised learning), a form ofregression. We are currently working on a number of methods based in ML that holdpromise for improving our ability. One of the important ideas is Decision Tree Analysis,an example of which we show in the figure below.

To build these methods, one first defines a series of labeled feature vectors. Then the classification ofthese feature vectors allows future unlabeled feature vectors to be assigned labels. In the case of earthquake

nowcasts and forecasts, the label might be 0 for no earthquake in the next year, or perhaps 1 if an earthquake is
expected in the next year.

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34

ANNEX : Program

15 July
Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
11 : 00 ― 11 : 25 Opening

Welcome address by Prof. Toshiya Ueki, Executive Vice President for General Affairs,

Financial Affairs and International Relations, Tohoku University

Welcome address by Dr. Christopher Tremewan, Secretary General, APRU

11 : 25 ― 11 : 55 “Medical and Public Health Resilience” by Prof. Shinichi Egawa (IRIDeS)

11 : 55 ― 12 : 25 “Mitigating People and Disasters: Approaches of Social Sciences” by Assoc. Prof.
Sébastien P. Boret (IRIDeS)

12 : 25 ― 12 : 55 “Urban Disaster Risk Reduction: Japan as a disaster-prone country and learning from pastdisasters” by Prof. Osamu Murao (IRIDeS)

12 : 55 ― 13 : 00 Closing for Day 1

22 July

Role of various stakeholders in disaster risk reduction
11 : 00 ― 11 : 15 Welcome & Introduction

Welcome address by Prof. and Director Fumihiko Imamura (IRIDeS)

11 : 15 ― 11 : 25 “Acting Together in a World Out of Balance on solutions to Asia-Pacific challenges” by Ms.
Christina Schönleber, Senior Director (Policy & Programs), APRU

11 : 25 ― 11 : 55 “Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR): the roleof stakeholders” by Assoc. Prof. Takako Izumi (IRIDeS)

11 : 55 ― 12 : 25 “Emerging Trends and the Role of NGOs / Civil Society Organizations” by Mr. Takeshi
Komino, General Secretary, CWS Japan

12 : 25 ― 12 : 55 “Japanese experience and assistance in flood risk management” by Dr. Mikio Ishiwatari,
Visiting Professor, The University of Tokyo

12 : 55 ― 13 : 00 Closing for Day 2

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29 July
Latest research in disaster science
11 : 00 ― 11 : 05

11 : 05 ― 11 : 25

Welcome & Introduction“APRU Multi-Hazards Program” by Assoc. Prof. Takako Izumi (IRIDeS)

11 : 25 ― 11 : 55 “Reenacting a National Legislation for Buildings: Another Look at Multi-Hazards
11 : 55 ― 12 : 25
12 : 25 ― 12 : 55

Resilience in a New Normal” by Prof. Benito M. Pacheco (University of the Philippines
Diliman)“Forecasting and Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis: Anticipating Great Natural
Disasters Using Machine Learning” by Prof. John B Rundle (UC Davis)“Global impacts of disasters and climate change and recent advances in DRR
Science and Policy” by Dr. Riyanti Djalante (United Nations University)

12 : 55 ― 13 : 00 Closing for Day 338