Toward substantial social implementation ofclimate change adaptation technology.
An advanced attempt in Hokkaido
An answer to Takayabu-san’s question of“what topics in downscaling researches for the next decade”
Masaru INATSU1*, Tomohito YAMADA1, Tomonori SATO1, Tomoyoshi HIROTA2,Tsuyoshi HOSHINO1, Dzung NGUYEN-LE1, Daisuke HATSUZUKA1, Yuta
KATSUYAMA1
1 Hokkaido University
2 Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, NARO

August 2016 in Hokkaido

http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/sat/gms.globe/2016/08/23/ql.16082303.jpg
http://www.jma-net.go.jp/sapporo/tenki/yohou/saigai/pdf/KishoH280820-0823.pdf

August 2016 in Hokkaido

http://yukimiti.com/10.gensai/132.shinpo.html

http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/sat/gms.globe/2016/08/23/ql.16082303.jpg
http://www.jma-net.go.jp/sapporo/tenki/yohou/saigai/pdf/KishoH280820-0823.pdf

RECCA Hokkaido project FY2010-2014
Introduction

Agriculture

EnergyWater resource

TourismTransportation
Biodiversity

Multi-GCM by Multi-RAM
3 RAMs for DDS

Global temperature change

3 GCMs inCMIP32K

9 possible futures
2000

2100

We will show 3 among 9, because results are not so sensitive toRAM.

Kuno and Inatsu (2013)

PLUS 2-K climate scenario
What years do you want to see?
We are concerned about theuncertainty from- climate sensitivity- emission scenario.
The uncertain future in a particularperiod might be less useful in a DDScommunity.

Global temperature change

2K

2000
We proposed the PLUS 2 K climate scenario as MIROC model for
2050s, MPI model for 2060s, and NCAR model for 2080s

2100RECCA Hokkaido’s results (Winter)
Precipitation change rate

Surface air temperature change％K

Precipitation likely increases by 20-40% because of the increase of watervapour.
Temperature very likely increases by 3-4 K in land and greater over theSea of Okhotsk.
Inatsu et al. (2015)

RECCA Hokkaido’s results (Summer)
Summer precipitation change rate

Summer 2-m temperature change％K

Precipitation change is model dependent, probably because the changeof Baiu front and stationary anticyclone is not certain.
Temperature very likely increases by 2-3 K.

Inatsu et al. (2015)

Impact assessment
1. Agriculture (Potatoes, beets, and wine grapes)

2. Tourism (Ski resort)
3. Water hazard management (Rain band, Flood risk)

Soil freezing “favourably” kills left-over potatoes.
Survived potatoes overwinter sprout in spring

Recent tendency of soil-frost DDS result indicated global
depth in eastern Hokkaido
warming melts the soil.
1987

2005
www.alic.go.jp/joho-d/joho08_000357.html

Snow ploughing encourages thesoil freezing: this is an agricultural adaptation technology.

Hirota et al. (2006)
Yazaki et al. (2013)
Inatsu et al. (2016)

Accumulated daily min temp (℃)

Yield (t/ha)

Sugar content (%)

Temperature increase decreases sugar content.

Accumulated daily max temp (℃)

Total sugar product change (t/ha)

Tomosada and Sato (2015)

Hokkaido “becomes” Burgundy
Vitis vinifera

Apr-to-Oct temperature b/w 13.1C and 20.9C.
1990s

2000s

2010s

2050s

2070s

www.euractiv.com
store.shopping.yahoo.co.jp

YamazakiWinery’s
Pinot Noir

Nemoto et al. (2016)

Monthly daily-minimum temperature > －15 C.
1990s

2000s

2010s

2050s

2070s

Still enjoy skiing but around the top.
new snow

melt forms

http://niseko.ne.jp/ja/niseko/

compacted snowKatsuyama et al. (2017)

Town centre

Nov

Mountain topMay Nov

MayLine-shaped rainband is increasing in Hokkaido.
JMA Radar GPV on 24 Aug 2010

Number of bands over Hokkaido

1990

Year2010
Yamada et al. (2012)

A future hazard map.
Precipitation intensity -> river risk assessment
Present climate

Future climate

Ishikari RiverYubariRiver

Sapporo City

ChitoseRiver

Input the precipitation,
comprehensive hydrology
model compute possible
flood pattern in terms offlood frequency and its
water amount.

出典：降雨流出氾濫モデル（RRIモデル）（ http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/SpecialHP/second/detail/index.php?id=7-4-2015025 ）Remember …

https://www.jrhokkaido.co.jp/press/2016/160902-2.pdf
https://www.hkd.mlit.go.jp/ky/saigai/splaat000000otsj-att/splaat000000ougk.pdf

Technical committee just launched.
• August 2016: “A special committee for water hazard treatment
following the disaster in Hokkaido on August 2016 due to extremely
heavy rainfall” was jointly organised by Hokkaido Local Governmentand Hokkaido Regional Development Bureau, Japan.
• March 2017: The committee recommended that advanced climatechange adaptation including scientific prediction of climate changes,
risk assessment for river based on it, and comprehensive flood
management plan should be implemented in Hokkaido, where theeffect of climate change is much larger in Japan.
• July 2017: Following above, the technical committee for climatechange prediction for hydrology has just been launched.

Ongoing massive DDS with great aids.
Extreme rainfall events for the river catchment
area for major rivers in Hokkaido will beselected from 3,000 members of presentclimate run and 5,400 members of futureclimate run in d4PDF data.
DDS with 5 km x 5 km will be performed and simulated rainfall events
will be statistically evaluated.
Flood flow and hazard for each river will be assessed, based on theresult of rainfall, runoff and inundation model experiments.

Summary and an answer to Takayabu-san
The Hokkaido team has performed downscaling researches.
• Research on snow quality and line-shaped rainband is akind of meteorological researches but across multiple
scales.
• Research on agriculture and river risk management is a kindof interdisciplinary researches toward the society.
In sense of former or latter, it may be expected thatdownscaling researchers approach a bit more to eachorganisation and even each individual, not only in thedeveloped countries but in the developing countries.

References
Hirota, T., Y. Iwata, M. Hayashi, S. Suzuki, T. Hamasaki, R. Sameshima, and I. Takayabu, 2006: Decreasing soil-frost depth
and its relation to climate change in Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 84, 821−833.
Inatsu, M., J. Tominaga, Y. Katsuyama, and T. Hirota, 2016: Soil-frost depth change in eastern Hokkaido under +2 K-world
climate scenarios. Scientific Online Letters on the Atomsphere, 153-158.
Inatsu, M., T. Sato, T. J. Yamada, R. Kuno, S. Sugimoto, M. A. Farukh, Y. N. Pokhrel, and S. Kure, 2015: Multi-GCM by multiRAM experiments for dynamical downscaling on summertime climate change in Hokkaido. Atmospheric Sciences Letters, 16,297-304.
Katsuyama, Y., M. Inatsu, K. Nakamura, and S. Matoba, 2017: Global warming response of snowpack at a site in northern
Japan estimated using multiple dynamically downscaled data. Cold Region Science and Technology, 136, 62-71.
Kuno, R., and M. Inatsu, 2014: Development of sampling downscaling: A case for wintertime precipitation in Hokkaido.
Climate Dynamics., 43, 375-387.
Nemoto, M., T. Hirota, and T. Sato, 2016: Prediction of climatic suitability for wine grape production under the climate change
in Hokkaido. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 72, 167-172.
Yamada, T. J., J. Sasaki, and N. Matsuoka, 2012: Climatology of line-shaped rainbands over northern Japan in boreal
summer between 1990 and 2010. Atmospheric Research Letters, 13, 133-138.
Yazaki, Y., T. Hirota, Y. Iwata, S. Inoue, K. Usuki, T. Suzuki, M. Shirahata, A. Iwasaki, T. Kajiyama, K. Araki, Y. Takamiya,
and K. Maezuka, 2013a: Effective killing of volunteer potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) tubers by soil frost control using
agrometeorological information –An adaptive countermeasure to climate change in a cold region. Agriculture and ForestMeteorology, 182−183, 91−100.
友貞俊成, 佐藤友徳, 2015: 地域気候変動の不確実性を考慮した北海道におけるてん菜糖量の将来変化. 北海道の農業気象, 67,
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