(On-site evaluation: July - August 2006)
2006 Ex-Post Monitoring of Completed ODA Loan Projects
Evaluator: Ryujiro Sasao (IC Net, Ltd.)
Project: Pakistan: “Second 220kV Guddu-Sibbi-Quetta Transmission Project” (PK-P27)
Loan Outline
Loan Amount/Disbursement Amount: 4,915 million yen / 3,705 million yen
Loan Agreement: March 1989
Loan Completion: August 1998
Ex-Post Evaluation: Fiscal Year 2001
Executing Agency: Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
Note: The agency currently in charge of operation and maintenance for this project is the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which was separated from WAPDA.
Project Objective:
The objective of the project was to construct transmission lines in Balochistan in order to meet the demand for electric power which has been rapidly increasing and to enhance the reliabilityof power supply facilities, thus contributing to the development of the local economy and the stabilization of people’s livelihoods.
Consultant: N/A
Contractor: Local companies, etc.
Overview of Results
Item

At time of ex-post evaluation

Effectiveness &Impact

At time of monitoring
As a result of the addition of new power generation and distribution facilities inthe target region of this project, the amount of electric power transmitted andthe power consumption per person in the target region has continued to increasesince the time of the ex-post evaluation. The effectiveness of the project has thus
been high. The slight increase in the number of power outages is not at a
problematic level.

Effectiveness(1) Electric Supply Reliability between Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial II・
The amount of electric power increased in 1999, the year following completion ofthe project.
・Annual load shedding increased in 1998 and 2000, but there were no cases inwhich the two lines were out concurrently, and since completion of the project,
there has not been a substantial stop in electric supply.
・Planned outages and sharp changes in voltage decreased significantly.
Table 1: Electric Supply Reliability between Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial II(1) Electric Supply Reliability between Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial II
・ The amount of electric power transmitted since the ex-post evaluation has continued
to grow. This appears to be as a result of latent power demand being covered by thisproject and the construction of new power generation facilities and transmission
lines in this section*.
・ The number of power outages lasting more than 20 minutes has increased, but it isnatural for the number of outages to increase over time following the construction offacilities as a result of operation and maintenance activities. The latest number ofoutages (for 2005) fell to between 10 and 20, a level which is not particularly

1

Year
1994 1995 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Transmitted
Unkno Unkno
953.0
874.3
856.9
1,884.0 1,036.0*
power**wnwn(GWh)
Numberofoutages lasting
0321419
more than 20
minutesNumberofoutages lasting
1300006upto20
minutes
Annual load
Unkno
8112762199*
shedding
0wn(hours)*Note: Total for January-June, 2000**Note: Including the amount transmitted along the existing 220kV line.
The Sibbi-Industrial II line was completed in December 1994 and the Guddu-Sibbiline in June 1998.

・problematic.
It appears that the annual load shedding has increased since the ex-post evaluation,
but these are the total figures for three lines, including the new transmission line,
and there are very few cases of all three lines being out concurrently.

Table 1: Electric Supply Reliability between Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial IIYear
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Transmitted power** (GWh)
1,352
2,472
2,912
3,323
3,251
Number of outages lasting
38
63
45
46
18
more than 20 minutes (planned)
Number of outages lasting
morethan20minutes
14
12
14
24
17(unplanned)
Number of outages lasting up
00000
to 20 minutes (planned)
Number of outages lasting up
Unknown Unknown Unknown23
to 20 minutes (unplanned)
Annual load shedding (hours)
992.1
418.7
2479.81327.0962.3
Source: WAPDA*Note: A 580mW power station was constructed in Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial II and has
been in operation since 2000. A transmission line was also added, and this section has
three lines.
**Note: Including the amount transmitted along the existing 220kV line and the newtransmission line mentioned in the note above.
・The following shows the capacity utilization rate and transmission loss rate(technical low rate). The drop in the figure for 2003 is as a result of numerous actsof sabotage carried out against facilities (acts including the destruction of facilities
by local anti-government groups) and damage to facilities from natural disasters
during that year. The transmission loss rate is decreasing towards the desirable levelof less than 1%.

Table 2: Capacity Utilization Rate and Transmission Loss Rate for
Guddu-Sibbi-Industrial IIYear
2001
2002
2003
2004
Capacity utilization rate (%)
84.0
89.7
66.7
80.8
Transmission
lossrate
Unknown Unknown
3.6
2.6(technical, %)Source: WAPDA

2005
88.2
0.72

(2) Power consumption per person in Balochistan compared to the national average・Power consumption in Balochistan is approaching the national average.
Table 2: Power Consumption per Person Unit: kWhYear(i) Balochistan(ii) National(i)/(ii) (%)
average
1987
135
222
61
1988
160
250
64
1989
174
258
67
1990
180
275
65
1991
204
289
71
1992
230
311
74
1993
237
324
73
1994
238
324
73
1995
243
336
72
1996
256
346
74
1997
262
347
76
1998
262
343
76

Impact(2) Power consumption per person in Balochistan compared to the national average
・The amount of power consumption in Balochistan reached the level of the nationalaverage in 2002, and following this has been increasing smoothly.

Year1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Table 3: Power Consumption per Person Unit: kWh(i) Balochistan(ii) National average(i)/(ii) (%)
251
315
79265
325
81304
334
91
353
341
103
387
352
110
430
375
114

Source: WAPDA(3) Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)
・
4.8% (12.6% at time of appraisal)・Causes included the overrun of project costs, delays in project implementation, a
policy of keeping electricity prices at a lower level compared to increases in otherprices, and the increase in losses due to power theft.
(Costs) project costs and operation and maintenance costs(Benefits) increased portion of power sales generated by the project(3) Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)
・Around 5.0%
・In order to factor out the effects of the addition of nearby power generation facilities
and transmission lines from 2000 onward, this figure assumes a continuation ofsales level in 1999. Taking the rise in prices into consideration would result in a
downward revision to the figure, while calculating the figure with sales results for2000 onward appears to result in an upward revision.

(1) Social Impact
・In Balochistan, electric power consumption in the agricultural sector accounts for
67.1% of total consumption in the province. As a steady supply of electric power
is indispensable for agricultural development, the impact of implementing thisproject is expected to include increasing the production volume of agriculturalproducts.
・The direct cause of improvement in the rural electrification rate is distribution
projects. The construction and improvement of transmission lines and substation
facilities under the project are also essential factors, so the project is expected tomake a contribution.
・The displacement of residents was not necessary for site acquisition.

(1) Social Impact
・The rural electrification rate for Balochistan has continued to increase steadily since
the time of the ex-post evaluation.
・The amount of electric power consumption in the agricultural sector in Balochistan
in 2004 increased approximately 1.5-fold from 1998 to 154,240kWh, corresponding
to 81.5% of total consumption. The contribution of electric power to agriculture in
Balochistan remains high.
Table 4: Rural Electrification Rate in Balochistan
YearElectrification rate (%)

3

Table 5: Rural Electrification Rate in Balochistan
YearElectrification rate (%)
1987
181996
1997
1998
1999

2022
24
25

(2) Environmental Impact
・There has been no notable environmental impact.
Sustainability・ Projectsustainability・ Operation andmaintenance

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: WAPDA

15.8
15.8
16.4
16.9
17.8
21.1

Note: The calculation method for data at the time of the ex-post evaluation is different, soa simple comparison is not possible.
(2) Environmental Impact
・Since after the ex-post evaluation, there continues to be no notable impact.
The operation and maintenance institution has continued to be stable technicallyand structurally following the organizational restructuring after the ex-postevaluation. With regard to financial challenges, profitability is increasing.

(1) Technology・Grid System Operation (GSO) Quetta, which is in charge of operation andmaintenance, has 199 employees engaged in this project, including 131
technicians. A total of 107 employees are stationed full time at Sibbi and Guddu
substations. This organization is also in charge of operation and maintenance ofthe existing 220kV transmission line, so there are no issues regarding operationand maintenance.
(2) Organizational Structure
・Operation and maintenance is carried out by GSO Quetta of NTDC, which wasseparated from the transmission department of WAPDA, the executing agency forthis project, and incorporated.

(3) Financial Status
The collection of fees is being overseen by power distribution company QESCO,but only 50% to 60% of the amount due is being collected. Reasons for this・(1) Technology・The necessary maintenance operations are being carried out, and there are noparticular issues.
・Staff training, including systematic training for new staff, is being developed andimplemented.
・The number of technicians (GSO Guddu) engaged in this project is 211.

(2) Organizational Structure
・GSO Quetta was separated; a portion became GSO Quetta, which belongs to power
distribution company QESCO, and the majority remained with NTDC and became
GSO Guddu. The majority of facilities constructed in this project are operated andmaintained by GSO Guddu.
・Operation and maintenance are overseen by GSO Guddu, which as mentioned above
has been separated from GSO Quetta.
・Of the 405 total employees at GSO Guddu, 266 are engaged in a portion of thisproject. Of these, 211 are technicians.
・The Pakistani government intends to continue to support NTDC as agovernment-owned enterprise.
(3) Financial Status
・
While NTDC has posted net deficits on a continual basis for the five-year period4

・include nonpayment by end users, rampant power theft, and delays in payment by
public institutions.
WAPDA is currently in the process of dividing and privatizing its organization
with cooperation from the World Bank. The Pakistani government does not intend
to privatize NTDC because of the public nature of its services and its
disadvantage in terms of profitability, and will support it as a government-owned
enterprise.

・・from FY2001 through FY2005, the financial situation has been improving. The
major reason for the losses is that while independent government agency theNational Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has set fees to balance
electric power procurement costs and sales prices, the rate of collection on the sales
amounts for the eight distribution companies, including QESCO, is only around
95% (FY2005).
In 2005, a loss of approximately 2,828 million rupees in bad loans was reported in
the project cost, and this amount is clearly greater than the size of the final net loss
for the relevant fiscal year. Nevertheless, operations related to the procurement andsale of electric power will be split from NTDC in 2007, and are set to be moved toanother government agency (the Central Power Purchase Agency). Thus, in thefuture these issues will not have an effect on the financial status of NTDC.
Electric power is sold from NTDC to end users through eight distribution
companies, including QESCO, but the rate of fee collection for amounts due fromthe agricultural sector, which is among QESCO’s major customers, is only 60%.

Table 5: status of revenue and expenditure for NTDC Unit: 1 million rupees
Fiscal year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sales
135,557.7
157,872.5
173,304.9
185,341.7
199,471.5
Electricpower
130,807.0
160,448.5
171,064.8
168,894.2
191,960.3
costs
Project costs
2,988.2
3,301.0
3,411.8
15,543.3
6,813.4
Operating profit
1,762.5-5,877.0-1,171.7
904.2
697.8
Other income
1,433.7
1,530.4
743.3
201.2
301.3
Interest
7,485.9
3,045.4
2,317.8
2,981.2
2,637.5
expenditure
Net profit/loss for-5,855.4*-7,392.0-2,746.1-1,875.8-1,638.4
year
Source: Annual Report*Note: Aside from the items shown above, an extraordinary loss of 1,565.7 million
rupees is included.
Operation and MaintenanceIn constructing the transmission line, the substations were connected with the shortest
possible routes in order to reduce construction costs. Therefore, portions of thetransmission line are far from highways, and it is difficult to carry out day-to-day
inspections and to access sites. Accordingly, NTDV and GSO Quetta are planning toconstruct paths for access to sites, along with maintenance stations.

Operation and MaintenanceIn terms of maintenance for the transmission line, the necessary standard operations arebeing carried out. With regard to transmission lines far from highways, as confirmed at
the time of the ex-post evaluation, the construction of maintenance stations has been
carried out.
・If paths for access to sites are constructed, the situation regarding access issues will
likely improve.
・While the theft of parts and sabotage are occurring occasionally, countermeasures5

are being taken for each case, and there are no particular issues with facility
maintenance overall.
Lessons
Learned,Recommendati
ons,
Information
Resources andMonitoring
Methods(1) Follow up on
lessons
learnedandrecommendati
ons made in
ex-postevaluation
report or inlater
evaluations(2) Proposals forsecuring
sustainability
andinstructions
given at timeof follow-up
monitoring

No notable items.
(1) No lessons or recommendations are mentioned.

(1) Follow-up on recommendations and lessons from the ex-post evaluation
・ Not applicable.
(2) Lessons from the monitoring evaluation and recommendations for securing
sustainability
・ Not applicable.

6