Incompatibility of HELE coaltechnology with 2°C
pathways

19/05/2016
Lindee Wong

High-efficiency low-emissions coal power plants havebeen proposed as an emissions mitigation technology> In COP 21, governments pledged to limit theglobal average temperature rise to well
below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to
pursue efforts to keep it under 1.5°C.

> High efficiency low-emissions coal power
plants have been proposed as a technologythat can deliver emissions reductions.

World Coal
Association“Deploying high efficiency, low emission (HELE)
coal-fired power plants is a key first step along
a pathway to near-zero emissions from coalwith carbon capture, use and storage(CCUS). HELE technologies are commerciallyavailable now and, if deployed, can reducegreenhouse gas emissions from the entire power
sector by around 20%.”
Source: http://www.worldcoal.org/reducing-co2-emissions/high-efficiency-low-emission-coal2© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong

Aims of project> Is HELE coal-fired electricity generation compatible with the goal of
limiting the temperature rise to 2°C.

> Assess the implications of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) 2°C scenarios on coal-fired
electricity generation and emissions.

> Evaluate whether the 1,400 GW of currently planned coal capacity iscompatible with these scenarios.

3© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong

HELE coal plants are higher in efficiency and produce
lower emissions compared to sub-critical technology> HELE coal technology has a higher efficiency and lower emissions
compared to sub-critical coal plants.
Conversion
efficiency

CO2 emissions
intensity (gCO2/kWh)

Coalconsumption(g/kWh)

Subcritical

Up to 38%

≥880

≥380

Supercritical

Up to 42%

800–880

340–380

Ultra-supercritical

Up to 45%

740–800

320–340

Advanced UltraSupercritical (A-USC)/
Integrated gasification
combined cycle (IGCC)

45–50%

670–740

290–320

Technology

Source: International Energy Agency, 2012, High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation Technology Roadmap.

> Other electricity generation technologies have higher efficiencies, e.g. up to60% for gas turbines, and lower CO2 emissions intensities, e.g. 350–490 gCO2/kWh for gas turbines and 0 gCO2/kWh for wind and solar power.
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Carbon capture and storage reduces the emissions
intensity but also the efficiency of electricity generation> Carbon capture and storage (CCS) process:Separation of CO2 fromindustrial and energy
related emissions

Transportation

Long termstorage> Emissions intensity is estimated to be 50–150gCO2/kWh.
> Full lifecycle emissions (mining, processing, transport) add 95-150 gCO2/
kWh to this figure.

> CO2 separation technology consumes energy and reduces the conversion
efficiency.

> Coal-fired electricity generation with CCS has a substantial role in 2°C
scenarios from the IPCC and IEA.

5© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong

The electricity sector needs to be decarbonised by2050 to keep the 2°C within reach> IPCC 2°C scenarios show that the electricity sector needs to be decarbonisedby 2050.

> From 2050 onwards, negative emissions from the electricity sector areneeded.
15,000CO2 emissions from electricity generation in IPCC 2°C
scenarios (MtCO2/year)

10,0005,000
0-5,000-10,000-15,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
10th-90th percentile

MedianSource: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessm
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Coal power plants not equipped with CCS need to bephased out by 2050
10,000Coal generation without CCS in IPCC 2°C
scenarios (TWh/year)
10th-90th percentile

Median10,000

8,000

8,000

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

00

Coal generation without CCS in 1.5°C
scenarios (TWh/year)
10th-90th percentile

MedianPhase out rate of coal power (without CCS)
Year2°Cscenario

1.5°C scenario

2010 – 2020-4%/year-5%/year

2020 – 2030

-6%/year-6%/year

2030 – 2040

-5%/year-8%/year

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Rogelj, J., G. Luderer, R. C. Pietzcker, E. Kriegler, M. Schaeffer, V. Krey and K. Riahi (2015). "Energy system transformations for limiting end-ofcentury warming to below 1.5°C." Nature Clim. Change 5(6): 519-527.

7© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee WongIEA 450 Scenario assumes 75% of coal power is fromCCS equipped plants in 2040
> IEA 450 scenario (450S) assumes a set of policies that are consistent with limiting theglobal temperature rise to <2°C. These include CCS assumptions:–

CCS is deployed in the power sector from around 2020 in China, and 2025 in India––CCS is introduced to coal-fired power generation in Japan
Extended support to CCS is provided in the US and EU.

> 75% of coal power is from CCS equipped plants in 2040.
Coal generation (incl. CCS)
Coal generation (excl. CCS)
CO2 emissions

Generation (TWh)10,00012,00010,000

8,000

8,000

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,00002010

2020

2030

2040

CO2 emissions (MtCO2)

12,00002050

Source: International Energy Agency, 2015, World Energy Outlook.
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Coal generation in 450S consumes the total 2°C carbon budget forelectricity; emissions in New/Current Policy Scenarios are too highCoal-fired electricity generation (TWh/year)
20,000CO2 emissions from electricity generation (MtCO2/year)
15,00015,000

Excl. CCS

10,000

Excl. CCS

5,000

0

10,0005,0000

Excl. CCS
2010

2020

2030

2040

IPCC 2°C range excl. CCS
IPCC 2°C Median excl. CCS
New Policies incl. CCS
Current Policies incl. CCS
450S incl. CCS

2050-5,000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

IPCC 2°C range (power generation)
IPCC 2°C median (power generation)
New Policies (coal generation)
Current Policies (coal generation)
450S (coal generation)> IEA Current Policies Scenario – takes into consideration only policies for which implementing
measures have been formally adopted and assumes that these policies are unchanged in the future.

> IEA New Policies Scenario – incorporates policies and measures which have been adopted orannounced, including energy related components of intended nationally determined contributions(INDCs).
9© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong

Annual emissions of planned coal plants would consume thetotal 2°C carbon budget for electricity generation in 2030
> 1,400 GW coal capacity is planned.
> Capacity factor of planned coal is < 20% (1,600 hours) in 2°C scenarios. This implies
that there is a weak business case for planned coal capacity.

> The average emissions factor of this coal capacity is 830 gCO2/kWh. This implies that not
all of these plants are HELE coal-fired electricity generation.
Planned coal capacity (GW)

16,000

Announced

Pre-permit
12,000434(30%)488(34%)

Incompatible
with 2°C

8,000

156(11%)352(25%)Permitted

Already under construction
Source: Global Plant Tracker, 2016, Proposed Coal Plants by Country (MW) – January 2016.

10CO2 emissions from planned coal electricity
generation compared to 2°C scenarios (MtCO2/year)© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong

4,000

0-4,000

IPCC 2°C range (power generation)
IPCC 2°C Median (power generation)
Planned coal power emissions

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

If all planned coal capacity were HELE coal or CCS equipped,
the 2°C goal would still not be in reach in the long term
> If all planned coal capacity were HELE
coal plants, the CO2 emissions ismore than double the carbon budgetfrom the entire power sector in 2040.

CO2 emissions from planned/theoretical coal
generation compared to 2°C scenarios (MtCO2/year)
16,00012,000> If all planned coal capacity wereequipped with CCS:–––

This is compatible with 2°C
trajectory in 2030 and 2040.
Low feasibility in 2030 as 5,400
MtCO2/year needs to be captured(currently only 1 CCS power plantin operation, with capture capacityof 1 MtCO2/year)
The CO2 emissions from theseplants will still exceed the carbon
budget in 2050 in 2°C pathways.

8,000

Incompatible
with 2°C4,0000-4,000

Long term notconsistent with 2°C

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

IPCC 2°C range (power generation)
IPCC 2°C Median (power generation)
Planned coal power emissions
Theoretical coal power emissions (A-USC plants)
Theoretical coal power emissions (CCS equipped)

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HELE coal technology is not compatible with 2°C
pathways> To be 2°C compatible, the electricity sector needs to be decarbonised by 2050 and coalfired electricity generation without CCS needs to be phased out by 2050.

> Coal generation in the IEA 450 scenario consumes the total 2°C carbon budget forelectricity sector in 2040, even with 75% of coal plants equipped with CCS.

> The IEA Current Policies and New Policies scenarios are not consistent with 2°C
compatible pathways.

> 1,400 GW of planned coal capacity is not compatible with limiting warming to 2°C, even
if all of the planned capacity were HELE plants. In 2050, this capacity of CCS plants isalso not compatible with 2°C.

> The deviation from 2°C pathways would be even larger using more realistic
assumptions:12–This analysis used optimistic conversion efficiencies and deployment rates assumed
for CCS/HELE generation–Lifecycle emissions were not included in this analysis.

© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong