The Cambridge Gazette
In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies
小誌は大量の資料を網羅的かつ詳細に報告するものではな
い— ハーバードに居る一研究者である筆者が接した情報や文献を①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障の分野に関し整理したものである。紙面や時間の制約に加えて筆者の限られた能力という問題は有るが、小ハーバード大学ケネディ行政大学院 シニア・フェロー 栗原 潤
誌が少しでも役立つことを心から願っている。
彼れを知りて己れを知れば、百戦して 殆 (あや)うからず。
Know the enemy and know yourself; In a hundred battles you will never be in peril.
彼れを知らずして己れを知れば、一勝一負す。
When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself; Your chances of winning or losing are equal.
彼れを知らず己れを知らざれば、戦う毎に必ず殆うし。
If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself; You are certain in every battle to be in peril.
(孫子)(Sunzi, an ancient Chinese strategist)『ケンブリッジ・ガゼット: グローバル戦略編』

第 25 号 (2011 年 5 月)

今月号 «目次»
1. Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 25 号
2. 情報概観—①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障
3. 編集後記
1. Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 25 号
地理的・歴史的に見て、我が国は震災から逃れられない運命、換言すれば震災と共に生きるべき運命にあるといっても過言ではない。従って我々は、こうした運命にある日本が如何なる形でたくましく生きてゆくのかを創造的に考えねばならない。しかもグローバル時代においては、我が国が国際的に模範となるような形で防災先進国を目指す必要があろう。
今年 2 月に復刊された岩波文庫のイワン・ゴンチャロフ著『日本渡航記』(—フレガート「パラルダ号」(Фрегат “Паллада”)より—)に興味深い一節がある。同書は江戸末期の嘉永 6 年(1853 年)、我が国を訪れた作家で、ロシア帝国海軍のエフィム・プチャーチン提督の秘書、ゴンチャロフが残した記録である—「地震は度々ありますか? («Часто у вас бывают землетрясения?»)」とのロシア側の質問に対し、幕府の通詞は「山が崩れ、家が倒壊するのです («Горы расседаются, и домы падают.»)」と答えている。翌 1854 年、プチャーチン提督は再度来日したが、果たしてロシア海軍の新鋭艦で旗艦の「ディアナ号(Диана)」は、下田港に停泊時、安政東海地震で発生した大津波の直撃を受けて沈没する。この時、提督は伊豆の戸田港において日本人の船大工を指導し、洋式船「ヘダ号(Хэда)」を造りロシアに帰国する。かくして大震災時に生れた造船技術に関する日露間の絆は、後年、戸田の船大工(上田寅吉)を通じて横須賀海軍工廠の創設に貢献することとなった。
現在の日本もまた、原発事故、グローバル・サプライ・チェーンを通じて、諸外国と複雑かつ高度な絆を強める時を迎えている。このため、我々は真摯な姿勢と明瞭な言葉でグローバルな情報交換を積極的に行うことが枢要であろう。
2. 情報概観

紙面の制約上、原則、参考になると筆者が判断した最新情報のみを掲載し解説や関連資料は一切省略。

マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Books, Papers, and Articles
Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2011, “Reshaping Global Economic Governance and the Role of Asia in the Group of Twenty (G20),”
Manila: ADB, April.
Burnside, Craig, Martin S. Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, 2011, “Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets,” NBER WorkingPaper No. 16942, April.
Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin, 2011, “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence andImplications for China,” NBER Working Paper No. 16919, March.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2011, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2011: Durable Financial Stability - Getting Therefrom Here, Washington, D.C.: IMF, April.
Issing, Otmar, 2011, “Lessons for Monetary Policy: What Should the Consensus Be?” Working Paper No. 11/97, Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund (IMF), April.
Thomas Philippon and Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011, “Household Leverage and the Recession,” NBER Working Paper No. 16965, April.
Yang, Yongzheng et al., 2011, “Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Pacific Island Countries,” Working Paper No. 11/96,
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), April.

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The Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 25 (May 2011)
弱小国家は常に優柔不断であり、遅疑逡巡は常に有害である。
(マキャヴェリ)Weak states are always dubious in their resolves, and tardy resolves are always hurtful.
[Gli stati deboli sempre fiano ambigui nel risolversi: e sempre le diliberazioni lente sono nocive.](Niccolò Machiavelli, an Italian political philosopher)

マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 4: (Washington, D.C.) Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE): “Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2011”: MichaelMussa (Senior Fellow, PIIE), Nicholas R. Lardy (Senior Fellow, PIIE), Marcus Noland (Senior Fellow, PIIE).
April 13: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “The Global Jobs Crisis: Sustaining the Recovery through Employment andEquitable Growth,” Introduction and Moderator: Kemal Derviş (Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development);
Featured Speakers: Sharan Burrow (General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC)), Dominique Strauss-Kahn(Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF); Panelists: George A. Akerlof (Nonresident Senior Fellow, Center on Social
Dynamics and Policy); Stephen Pursey (Senior Adviser to the Director-General, International Labour Organization (ILO)).
April 25: (Washington, D.C.) Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE): “Asia's Strategic Participation in the G-20 for Global
Economic Governance Reform,” Iwan J. Azis (Asian Development Bank’s Office of Regional Economic Integration) and C. Fred
Bergsten (PIIE).
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Books, Papers, and Articles
Hall, Bronwyn H. and Christian Helmers, 2011, “Innovation and Diffusion of Clean/Green Technology: Can Patent Commons Help?”
NBER Working Paper No. 16920, March.
Houser, Trevor, 2011, “Copenhagen, the Accord, and the Way Forward,” Policy Brief 11-5, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute forInternational Economics (PIIE), March.
Miranda, Gabriela, 2011, “Climate Change, Employment and Local Development in London, UK,” Local Economic and Employment
Development (LEED) Working Paper 2011/05, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), April.
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 7: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “Nuclear Safety After Fukushima,” Opening Remarks:
John Hamre (President, CSIS); Moderator: Sharon Squassoni (Director, CSIS Proliferation Prevention Program); “NationalResponses”: Alex Flint (Senior Vice President for Governmental Affairs, Nuclear Energy Institute), Ellen Vancko (Nuclear Energyand Climate Change Project Manager, Union of Concerned Scientists), Mark Holt (Specialist in Energy Policy, Congressional
Research Service (CRS)); “International Responses”: Olli Heinonen (Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and InternationalAffairs, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Carlton Stoiber (Chair of the Nuclear Security Working Group, International Nuclear LawAssociation), Carol Kessler (Chair of the Nonproliferation and National Security Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory).
April 19: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “The Future of U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas
Development,” Keynote Speaker: Michael R. Bromwich (Director, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, andEnforcement), Panelists: Christopher Smith (Deputy Assistant Secretary for Oil and Natural Gas, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S.
Department of Energy), Charlie Williams (Chief Scientist, Well Engineering and Production Technology, Shell), Mike Wallace(Senior Adviser, CSIS and former Vice Chairman and COO of Constellation Energy); Commenter: J. Robinson West (Chairman ofthe Board, Founder, and CEO of PFC Energy); Moderator: Frank A. Verrastro (Senior Vice President and Director, CSIS Energy andNational Security Program).
April 20~22: (Kyiv (Kiev)) Government of Ukraine: “Twenty-five Years after Chernobyl Accident. Safety for the Future.”
April 21: (Washington, D.C.) Cato Institute: “The False Promise of Green Energy”; Andrew Morriss (Professor, University of Alabama),
Commentator: Kate Gordon (Vice President for Energy Policy, Center for American Progress); Moderator: Jerry Taylor (SeniorFellow, Cato Institute).
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Books, Papers, and Articles
China, 2011, “China’s National Defense in 2010,” http://www.china.org.cn/government/whitepaper/node_7114675.htm (《2010 年中国的国防》白皮书, http://www.scio.gov.cn/zxbd/wz/201103/t883079.htm), March.
Pradun, Vitaliy O., 2011, “From Bottle Rockets to Lightning Bolts: China's Missile Revolution and PLA Strategy against U.S. Military
Intervention,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 64, No. 2 (Spring), pp. 7-39.
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
April 6: (Washington, D.C.) Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE): “The Middle East and North Africa: A New Social
Contract for Development,” Robert B. Zoellick (President, World Bank Group).
April 8: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “Congressional Leadership in an Era of Partisan Polarization,” Welcome: Thomas E.
Mann (Senior Fellow, Governance Studies); Introductory Remarks: John Hempelmann (President, Henry M. Jackson Foundation);
Featured Speaker: Dan Glickman (Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center); Panelists (Moderator: Thomas E. Mann): Sarah A.
Binder (Senior Fellow, Governance Studies), Janet Hook (Congressional Reporter, Wall Street Journal), David Welna (CongressionalCorrespondent, National Public Radio (NPR)); Featured Speaker: Robert F. Bennett (Former U.S. Senator (R-UT)).
April 12: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “Shutdown Avoided: Implications of the Budget
Battle and the Path Forward,” Moderator: Bob Schieffer (Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News, Anchor, CBS News’ “Facethe Nation”); Panelists: Tom Daschle (Senior Policy Advisor, DLA Piper, Former U.S. Senator (D-SD)), J. Bennett Johnston Jr.
(Chairman, Johnston & Associates LLC, Former U.S. Senator (D-LA)), John Warner (Senior Advisor, Hogan Lovells LLP, Former
U.S. Senator (R-VA)), Vin Weber (Managing Partner, Clark & Weinstock, Former Member, U.S. House of Representatives (R-MN)).
April 13: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “The U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue: Priorities andNext Steps,” Ambassador Ronen Sen (Former Ambassador of India to the United States), Chandrajit Banerjee (Director General,
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)), Jamshyd N. Godrej (Chairman and Managing Director, Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing

Jun Kurihara; 栗原 潤

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The Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 25 (May 2011)
叡智は、いずこも同じである。聡明な人々の間には、馬鹿な人々の間と同様に共通点が存在する。たとえ民族、服装、言語、宗教が違い、更には人生観すら違ったとしても。
(イワン・アレクサンドロヴィチ・ゴンチャロフ)

A good and sharp mind is the same everywhere: intelligent people show the same signs, and dullards are also
recognizable, whatever the differences among peoples, garb, language, religion, even the outlook on life.
[Ум везде одинаков: у умных людей есть одни общие признаки, как и у всех дураков, несмотря наразличие наций, одежд, языка, религий, даже взгляда на жизнь.](Ivan A. Goncharov, a Russian novelist who served as the secretary of Admiral Yevfimy V. Putyatin)

Company, Ltd., India); Moderator: Ambassador Karl F. Inderfurth (Senior Advisor and Wadhwani Chair, CSIS).
April 14: (Singapore) International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS): “IISS Asia Seminar Series: The Growing Multipolarity of Asia”;
Rod Lyon (Program Director, Strategy and International, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)).
その他—Information in Other Fields
Arnaud, Costinot, Jonathan Vogel and Su Wang, 2011, “An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains,” NBER Working Paper No.
16936, April.
de Jager, Gerrit, 2011, “Missions on the Move: University Systems in England, New York State and California,” Paris: Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), April.
Glaeser, Edward L., Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto and Kristina Tobio, 2011, “Cities, Skills, and Regional Change,” NBER Working Paper No.
16934, April.
Minoiu, Camelia and Javier A. Reyes, 2011, “A network analysis of global banking:1978-2009,” Working Paper No. 11/74, Washington,D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), April.
Moran, Theodore H., 2011, Foreign Direct Investment and Development: Launching a Second Generation of Policy Research: Avoiding
the Mistakes of the First, Reevaluating Policies for Developed and Developing Countries, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute forInternational Economics (PIIE), April.
Moran, Theodore H., 2011, “Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements,
New Perspectives,” Working Paper 11-11, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, April.
Ostry, Jonathan David et al., 2011, “Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?” Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/06, Washington,
D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), April.
Ricci, Luca Antonio and Federico Trionfetti, 2011, “Evidence on Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Networks in the Export
Performance of Firms,” Working Paper No. 11/77, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), April.
Schwert, G. William, 2011, “Stock Volatility During the Recent Financial Crisis,” NBER Working Paper No. 16976, April.
Event: April 18: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “Distance Learning: How It Can Transform American Education,” Moderator:
Darrell M. West (Vice President and Director, Governance Studies); Louis Soares (Director of the Postsecondary Education Program,Center for American Progress), Elaine Allen (Associate Professor of Statistics and Director, Babson Survey Research Group, Babson
University), Richard Garrett (Managing Director, Eduventures, Inc.).
Event: April 19: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS): Business & Government Seminar Series: “The Globalization Paradox: Democracy andthe Future of the World Economy,” Dani Rodrik, Prof. HKS; Moderated by Lawrence H. Summers, Prof. HKS, and Director,
Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government (M-RCBG).
Event: April 28: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS): “Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Oil Spills & Meltdowns: Acting In Time Against the Next
Disaster,” Juliette Kayyem (Assistant Secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs, Department of Homeland Security (2009-11)),
General Craig R. McKinley (Chief, National Guard Bureau), Admiral Robert Papp (Commandant, US Coast Guard), The Hon. Bart
Stupak (Member, US House of Representatives (1993-2011), Chair, House Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations), Admiral
James Winnefeld (Commander, US Northern Command & North American Aerospace Defense Command), David T. Ellwood(Moderator, Dean, HKS).
Event: April 29: (Washington, D.C.) Cato Institute: “The Future of Chinese Land Rights,” Roy Prosterman (Founder and Chairman
Emeritus, Landesa), Keliang Zhu (Attorney, China Team, Landesa); Commentator: Xiaobo Zhang (Senior Research Fellow,International Food Policy Research Institute); Moderator: Ian Vasquez (Director, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, CatoInstitute).

3. 編集後記
震災復興を実現し、科学技術の分野でグローバル・リーダーシップを一段と発揮する機会に直面する日本は、正確な情報公開と多元的な対話を通じて、内外の優れた人々の間での絆を強める必要がある。こうした理由から真摯な姿勢と明瞭な言葉を通じた情報交換は、ひとり国際間の情報交換に止まらない。国内の良識ある一般市民に対しても信頼を醸成する言葉と行動が求められている。
以上(編集責任者) 栗原 潤
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹
ハーバード大学ケネディ行政大学院 シニア・フェロー

Jun KURIHARA
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies
Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School(Tokyo Office) 〒100-6511
Mailing address: 79 JFK St., Box 74, Cambridge, MA 02138
東京都千代田区丸の内 1-5-1 新丸の内ビルディング 11 階
Office address: 124 Mt. Auburn, 200N-235Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: +81-(0)3-6213-0550 (代)Tel: +1-617-384-7430; Fax: +1-617-496-4602; Jun_Kurihara@hks.harvard.edu; Kurihara-Jun@rieti.go.jp
過去の Cambridge Gazette はネット上で見ることが出来、ダウンロードも出来ます。ネット上でキヤノングローバル戦略研究所のウェブサイトに行き、そこで栗原のコラム・論文の欄をクリックして頂ければ、バックナンバー全てが見れます。

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Jun Kurihara; 栗原潤