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Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: The Project for Forest and Biodiversity Conservation for Climate
Change Response in West Bengal
Project Site / Target Area: West Bengal (Population: approximately 91 million(2011 census))
Loan Agreement: March 29, 2023
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1)

Current State and Issues of the Forestry and Biodiversity Sector and thePriority of the Project in India
India is considered highly vulnerable to multiple natural disasters in 85%
of its land area, and there are concerns that climate change may lead to more
severe natural disasters such as cyclones, floods and landslides. Under thesecircumstances, the Government of India has indicated in its Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC) (2022) under the Paris Agreement that it intends
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 per unit of GDP by 45%, compared
to 2005 levels. In addition, the country emphasizes on forest and biodiversity
restoration and conservation and ecosystem-based climate change measuresand has set a target of improving ecosystem services such as carbon storage
and water source recharge in 10 million ha over 10 years as climate change
measures in the 'Green India Mission' formulated in 2014. Furthermore, theMinistry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change, in its draft National Forest
Policy 2018, has identified contribution to mitigation and adaptation to climatechange impacts as one of the key objectives of forest and biodiversity restorationand conservation activities and intends to strengthen specific initiatives.
West Bengal has a long and diverse topography from the north, which
includes the Himalayan high mountain range and borders on Bhutan and Nepal,
to the south, which faces the Bay of Bengal and has mangrove forests and ishome to a wide variety of flora and fauna. However, the rapid expansion ofagricultural land has led to a decrease in forest land, and by 1991 the forest cover
was 9%, which was lower than the national average (19%) at the time. In addition,

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the loss of forests and biodiversity has become a major issue, such as theworsening damage caused by human wildlife conflict such as elephants andtigers. Subsequently, a yen loan 'West Bengal Forest and Biodiversity
Conservation Project' (hereinafter referred to as the 'Prior Project') wasestablished. The state government's efforts, including the tree planting ofapproximately 22,000 ha under the Prior Project, have improved the forest coverrate to 19% by 2019 (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, India).
On the other hand, the state has the highest population density in India(1,028 inhabitants/km2). The pressure to use natural resources such as forests
is strong due to the state's high rate of urbanization, including residential landdevelopment, and the fact that many residents, especially the poor who accountfor about 23% (World Bank: 2012) of rural areas in the state, are dependent on
forest resources for their livelihoods. The state's forest cover remains below thenational target of 33% and the national average of 25% in 2019 (Ministry ofEnvironment, Forest and Climate Change, India), and the rehabilitation andconservation of forests and biodiversity are an important issue.
Furthermore, the state has new expectations for the forest and biodiversity
sector. The first is its contribution to climate change adaptation. The state's
coastal deltas are classified as high-risk areas for cyclone flooding and storm
surge damage, with 42% of areas vulnerable to flooding (National Disaster
Management Authority of India, West Bengal: 2020), and more than 10 million
people were affected by the massive cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in 2020. The
dry lateritic & alluvial landscape in the south-western part of the state has sufferedfrom a series of droughts due to reduced rainfall, in addition to the geology of theland's weak water retention capacity, and the number of droughts in the 2010s
was almost double that of the 2000s. In addition, in the hills and north Bengal
landscape of the northern part of the state, there are many landslides with
infrastructure disruptions, etc., and the state is considered one of the 17 statesthat are severely affected by landslides (National Disaster Management Authority
of India). Reducing the risk of these natural disasters is a pressing issue for thestate, which needs to address the different biological, geographical, and climaticchallenges in the hills in the north, the dry lateritic & alluvial landscapes in thesouthwest and the deltaic landscape. The State Government has a policy topromote disaster prevention and mitigation using ecosystems, which are lesscostly and have the potential to increase the resilience of the land against
disasters, such as soil run-off control, flood prevention and tide protection, inVer 202208

addition to manufactured structures.
Second, it contributes to climate change mitigation. In the state, carbon
dioxide emissions, which are a cause of climate change, are on the rise due tofactors such as increasing urbanization. Climate change has a serious impact
on India and the world, and the state government is emphasizing climatechange mitigation measures through the regeneration and conservation of
ecosystems such as forests that absorb and store carbon dioxide. In addition,
the state government intends to conduct research and trials on afforestation andforest management that will lead to higher absorption and storage of carbon
dioxide, and to disseminate the results widely within and outside the state incooperation with the central government.
West Bengal is implementing the State Climate Change Action Plan
2017-2020 after formulating an implementation plan for climate change
mitigation and adaptation measures, including forest and biodiversity restorationand conservation. In addition, the State Climate Change Action Plan 2020-2025
is being developed and is expected to include an implementation plan for
mitigation of impacts due to landslides, storm surges, etc., and research on thelong-term impacts of climate change on forests and carbon storage in thestate's forests. The 'Project for Forest and Biodiversity Conservation for Climate
Change Response in West Bengal' (hereafter referred to as the 'Project') aims
to mitigate and adapt to climate change and protect and restore ecosystems byimplementing ecosystem based climate change measures, biodiversity
conservation and restoration, livelihood improvement activities and institutional
strengthening, in line with the State Climate Change Action Plan 2020-2025 ofWest Bengal and is positioned as a key project in the forest and biodiversity
sector in India and the state.
(2)
Japan’s and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Forestry andBiodiversity Sector
At COP26 in November 2021, Japan announced its participation in the
Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use, which states that Japan
will halt forest loss and land degradation by 2030 and strengthen efforts toconserve forests and promote their recovery. In addition, at COP15 in December
2022, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, a new global
biodiversity target (Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework), was adopted,
including by Japan. The Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016)
positions 'supporting sustainable and inclusive growth' as one of the priority areas

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and clearly states that Japan will work on programmes to increase the income ofthe poor and promote support for the forest and disaster management sectors,
etc. to address environmental and climate change issues. The JICA Country
Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) also states that measures are needed topromote the appropriate use of natural resources for inclusive growth in rural
areas, leading to appropriate conservation and use of forest resources. The JICA
Global Agenda for Conservation of Natural Environment also aims to build asociety that can continue to enjoy various blessings from the natural environmentby harmonizing conservation and human activities and preventing the decline anddegradation of the natural environment, and this Project is in line with thesepolicies and analyses. As of September 2022, 30-loans projects amounting to304.6 billion yen had been approved for the forest and biodiversity sector.
(3)
Other Donors’ Activities
The German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) is providing
technical assistance to Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Karnataka under the 'Human Wildlife Conflict Mitigation in India' (2017-2023), and in West Bengal, in
collaboration with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, theGovernment of India, it assists in formulating guidelines, rapid warning for the
population and establishing communication systems for the population, among
other activities.
In addition, the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility have
implemented cyclone damage mitigation projects and biodiversity conservation
projects through supporting residents' organizations in West Bengal and otherstates.
３．Project Description(1) Project Description① Project Objective
The project aims to mitigate and adapt to climate change, conserve andrestore ecosystems by ecosystem based climate change measures,
biodiversity conservation and restoration, livelihood improvement activities andinstitutional strengthening, thereby contributing to sustainable socio-economic
development in West Bengal.
② Project Components
The following activities will be implemented in the Hills and North Bengal
Landscape, Dry Lateritic & Alluvial Landscape, Deltaic Landscape, based on
the specific characteristics of each landscape.

Ver 202208(a) Ecosystem based climate change measures (e.g., production of highquality seedlings, afforestation in degraded lands and outside forest areas,
Eco-DRR activities such as flood control measures using mangrove forests,
etc., Eco-DRR activities related to water and soil conservation such as
check dam development, promotion of research activities contributing toecosystem based climate change measures, etc.)(b) Biodiversity conservation and restoration (human wildlife conflict mitigation
through the installation of electric fences and alert systems, conservationof rare and endangered species, research on wildlife, etc.)(c) Livelihood improvement (preparation of village-level plans anddevelopment of local infrastructure through participation of local people,
support for local people to start their own businesses, etc.)(d) Institutional strengthening (DX promotion activities (development of webbased GIS, digitalization of the boundaries of the Joint Forest Management
Committee organized by Department of Forests, Government of West
Bengal (hereinafter referred to as ‘Forest Department’) and local people(hereinafter referred to as 'JFMC'), demonstration of digital technologies
for effective use of the collected and developed data, etc.), training forcapacity building for forest officers, forest department staff and local
people, etc.)(e) Consulting services (implementation supervision, support for thedevelopment of state DX strategies, etc.)③ Project Beneficiaries（Target Group）
Approx. 100,000 (population subject to climate change adaptation measures(e.g., disaster prevention measures) and livelihood improvement activities,etc.)(2) Estimated Project Cost
11,634 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan: 9,308 million Yen)
(3) Schedule
March 2023-March 2031 (97 months)
When all activities are completed (March 2031) is considered as thecompletion of the Project.
(4) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: Department of Forests, Government of West Bengal

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4) Operation and Maintenance System:
For the main activities of the Project, the Forest Department will continue
to operate and maintain it after the project would be ended, using state
government funds. Meanwihle, in the case of afforestation outside the forest
area, the landowner will be responsible for operation and maintenance withhis/her own funds. For Eco-DRR activities, minor restoration and othermaintenance will be carried out by the JFMC. For livelihood improvement
activities, the JFMC will operate and maintain it after the project completion.
Forest Department will provide the necessary budgetary allocation for theoperation, etc., of the JFMC, as well as technical support and monitoring of
its activities. On the financial side, it has been agreed with the State financedepartment that the State Government will allocate the budget for the costs
required for operation and maintenance to be borne by the Forest
Department.
(5) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: The formulating yen loan project 'Project for Capacity
Enhancement for Effective Forest Management', executing agency ofwhich is the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change(MoEFCC) of the central government ministry, will support thestrengthening of the capacity of the Indian forest sector to tackle key policy
issues such as climate change through strengthening research andtraining systems and joint research activities with researchers andcompanies in India and abroad. The Project will plan to utilize outcomesof research activities, trainings, etc. from this project for synergistic effect.
Furthermore, the Project will also utilise the lessons learned,
achievements and Japanese experience shared through the National
Workshop, annually hosted in turn by executing agencies of Japanese
ODA loan projects in the forestry sector, and the country focused training“Sustainable Forest Management and Biodiversity Conservation”. Also,
expanding the project’s achievements will be aimed by the Project throughthe National Workshop. In addition, the Smallholder Horticulture
Empowerment & Promotion (SHEP) approach (market-oriented
agricultural promotion), which has been introduced in the agricultural
sector, will be used to maximise the effects of livelihood improvement
activities and other activities. The participatory forest management
approach adopted in the prior project will also be applied in the Project.

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2) Other Donors’Activity:
N/A. In addition, there is no overlap with the support provided by other
donors.
(6) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: FI② Reason for Categorization: The Project is being implemented under
the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(published in April 2010) (JICA Guidelines), as sub-projects cannot be
specified prior to JICA's approval for financing, and they may haveenvironmental and social impacts under the Guidelines.
③ Other/Monitoring: Under the Project, forest department, with theassistance of a project management consultant, will categorise the subprojects in accordance with the Indian domestic legal system and JICA
guidelines, and the necessary measures will be taken for the relevant
categories. It has been agreed that the sub-projects will not include
Category A projects.
(7) Cross-Sectoral Issues① Climate change-related projects: The Project will contribute to climatechange countermeasures (adaptation measures) because theimplementation of afforestation and other activities will contribute todisaster prevention and mitigation, such as soil run-off prevention andflood mitigation, and reduce the negative impacts of climate change. In
addition, the Project will contribute to climate change countermeasures(mitigation measures) as it is expected to reduce CO2 emissions byapproximately 10,000 tonnes per year through afforestation activities, etc.
② Poverty alleviation and poverty considerations: The Project will target
scheduled tribes with high poverty rates and high dependence on forest
resources and will implement livelihood improvement initiatives such as
livelihood improvement activities. It has been confirmed that these
activities will not have any negative impact on the livelihoods and culturesof the scheduled tribes targeted in the prior project and the potential target
sites of the Project. In addition, guidelines describing the activities will be
prepared jointly with the local people before the implementation of the
Project, and the activities will be carried out based on these guidelines.
③ Countermeasures against infectious diseases: As part of efforts to preventthe spread of COVID-19 infections, the executing agency has agreed on aVer 202208

list of measures (a total of 36 measures) to be taken at the time of project
formation and project implementation, and clarified the items of activities
such as the maintenance of quarantine equipment and materials,
improvement of the working environment including the dissemination of
the code of conduct, construction supervision and awareness raising. By
receiving quarterly reports from the executing agency on the status of
implementation, the impact of the virus will be closely monitored
throughout the project implementation phase to ensure that flexible andappropriate measures are taken by the implementing agencies.
④ Participatory development: The JFMC will be formed by the local people
in the Project and will be responsible for formulating and implementing avillage-level plan (micro-plan) for the village-based activities in the Project.
In addition, as livelihood improvement activities, JFMCs and self-helpgroups (hereinafter referred to as 'SHGs'), consisting of women, will be
provided with revolving funds to support their entrepreneurial activities.
(8) Gender Category: Gender Informed (Significant)[GI(S) Gender activity
integration project]<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
Through the survey and discussions with the executing agency, genderbased needs were identified, such as strengthening the capacity of women staff
and women residents involved in climate change action and biodiversity
conservation and restoration activities and improving the livelihoods of women
residents. The Project has a plan to implement these activities after preparing agender action plan, because the number of SHGs composed of mainly women tobe supported and the number of women forestry officers and women residents toreceive capacity building training are set as indicators.
(9) Other Important Issues①The Project will focus on DX promotion activities that contribute toeffective and efficient forest management and biodiversity conservation, using
Japanese knowledge. The need for technical assistance in this context will beconsidered.
② In promoting research activities that contribute to climate change
countermeasures using ecosystems, academic collaboration between Japanese
universities and research institutions, etc. and universities and government
research institutions in West Bengal and other states of India, will be pursued.

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４. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicators
New plantation area by the
project (ha)Baseline(Actual value in 2022)

Target (2033)[2 years after
project completion]

-

3,900

-

75,470(Note)(Note)(Note)(Note)(Note)(Note)

Percentage reduction in
Human-Wildlife Conflict in the
project intervention area (%)-

10-20％

Number of endangered wild
animal species to be protectedby the project

-

5

-

1,200

Annual profit earned perincome generation activity
under the project per SHG
member-(Note)

Number of male and female
participants in capacity-

Male：3,444
Female：2,932

Increase of carbon
sequestration in forest by the
project (CO2t)
Reduction in soil erosion
levels at treatment sides of the
project in Dry Lateritic andAlluvial Landscape (%)
Number of incidents of village
flooding in targeted villages in
Deltaic LandscapeNumber of villages covered by
Eco-DRR Measures

Number of SHGs supported
for income generation

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building training under the
project (persons)Note: The baseline will be determined from the results of a baseline survey
conducted after the Project starts.
(2) Qualitative Effects
Sustainable socio-economic development, restoration and enhancementof functioning of ecosystem services, strengthening resilience to climate change,
climate change mitigation and adaptation, social participation of women, poor andvulnerable groups, etc.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of
return (EIRR) for the Project is 10.5%. As the Project is not expected to collectfees from users and others, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) has notbeen calculated.
【EIRR】
Cost：Project costs, operation and maintenance costs (excluding tax)
Benefit：CO2 reduction, income from forest products, disaster mitigation andprevention (only flood control using mangrove forests), mitigation of humanwildlife conflicts, income from livelihood improvement activities.
Project Life：50 years
５. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions
N/A(2) External Factors
No significant deterioration of security situation, no restrictions on travel andfield activities due to the worsening of the transmission situation of COVID19. Although the number of people infected with COVID-19 in West Bengal
is decreasing as of December 2022, the impact of the spread of the virus on
the implementation of the Project should be considered.
６. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
In the ex-post evaluation of the technical cooperation project "Project on
Forest Restoration after the Earthquake in Sinchuan Province" for China(evaluation year 2018), among others, the establishment of technical guidelines
and model technologies for forestry and mountain control led to the implementing
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effects. In the ex-post evaluation of the “Gujarat Forest Development Project”(evaluation year 2005) found that the involvement of local people's organisations
in sustainable forest management after the completion of the project has asignificant impact on the project effectiveness, so it is important to encourage theparticipation of local people when formulating detailed activity plans and selecting
activities and strengthen the capacity of local forest officers in facilitation
techniques.
In this Project, attention will be paid to the establishment of an
implementation system whereby models are established through thedevelopment and implementation of forestation technologies that contribute toclimate change countermeasures, etc., and whereby the host government is able
to expand the project results in a self-sustaining manner. In addition, training will
be provided for field forest officers to strengthen their capacity in facilitation
techniques to encourage the participation of local people in the formulation of
microplans and the selection of activities.
７. Evaluation Results
The Project is in line with the development challenges and development
policies of the Government of India and the Government of West Bengal, as wellas the cooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA, and will contribute topoverty eradication, gender equality, climate change countermeasures,protection and restoration of ecosystems and promotion of sustainable use
through promotion of climate change countermeasures, biodiversity conservationand livelihood enhancement activities, etc. It will contribute to Goals 1, 5, 13 and
15 of the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), and there is a high need tosupport project implementation.

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８. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Sections 4. (1)~(3).
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: two years after the project completion
END