FIRES, FORESTSAND THE FUTURE:
A CRISIS RAGING OUT OF CONTROL?

CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION

3

1. THE ISSUE

4SNAPSHOTS OF 2020: ALREADY A YEAR OF EXTREMES

6

2. CHANGING CLIMATE, WORSENING TRENDS

8

3. THE CONSEQUENCES

11

4. NEXT STEPS – URGENT ACTION

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WWF INTERNATIONAL 2020 | 2

INTRODUCTION
2020 has been a year like no other. COVID-19 is a truly global event withsocial and economic implications that will change the world forever. As theinternational community focuses its attention on fighting the pandemic,
another crisis is unfolding around the world.

FIRE COUNTSACROSS THE
GLOBE WERE
UP BY

13%

COMPARED TO
LAST YEAR

This one is taking place in forests, where the latest
fire seasons have been raging with unprecedented
ferocity, from the Amazon to the Arctic: in April
2020, the number of fire alerts across the globe
were up by 13% compared to last year – which was
already a record year for fires.1 Persistent hotter
and drier weather due to climate change, andother human factors such as land conversion for
agriculture and poor forest management are themain drivers behind the increase.
Climate change and wildfires mutually reinforce eachother, and the fires burning today in many parts of theworld are bigger, more intense, and last longer thanthey used to. If current trends continue, there will bedevastating long-term consequences. A greater numberof more intense fires will release millions of extra
tonnes of carbon, decimate biodiversity, destroy vital
ecosystems, impact economies and people, threaten
property and livelihoods, and cause severe long-term
health problems for millions around the world.

It is estimated that humans are responsible foraround 75% of all wildfires,2 and much of theincrease in fire incidents during 2020 can bedirectly linked to human actions. This means
solutions are in our grasp too. There’s no magicbullet that will fix the issue overnight, but there areways forward if behaviours of the past are changed.
Proactivity and commitment must be at the heartof a global response to fires that needs to play out
at local, sub-national, national and regional levels.
Preventing fires before they occur is paramount,and far preferable in all respects to only
suppressing them when they are burning. Goodintentions and commitments need to be followed
up by real and effective actions on the ground.
This report takes a deeper dive into fire trends
and what they mean for people and the planet,and sets out some recommendations to address
the key causes.

HUMANS ARERESPONSIBLE
FOR

75%

OF ALLWILDFIRES

Amazon Fires, Porto Velho in Brazil © Michael Dantas

31. THE ISSUE
Wildfires affect all biomes, from forests and savannahs
to grasslands and tundra.
Based on records from 20002015, 85% of the surface
area burned globally eachyear is located in tropicalsavannahs,3 which make up
19% of total land cover.4 Even
though forests make up only
10% of the total area burned,5
their higher carbon storage
capacity means that they are
responsible for one quarter of
all fire-related carbon dioxide
emissions. Forest fires in all
biomes are responsible fornearly a quarter of all emissions
from fires. Tropical forests areless resilient to fire, and theircarbon storage contribution
makes them an urgent priority
for preventative action.6

Brazilian Amazon 2019 Fires © Michael Dantas / WWF-Brasil

SHARE OF ANNUAL CO2 EMISSIONS RELEASED DURING FIRES

65%
SAVANNAS

15%
TROPICALFOREST

7%
BOREAL
FOREST

6%
AGRICULTURE

4%PEATLAND

2%
TEMPERATEFOREST

Source: van der Werf, et al. (2017) Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017

4

FIRES AND NATURAL CYCLES
Wildfires triggered naturally – usually by lightning strikes– play an important role in natural cycles, maintaining
biodiversity and regenerating forests, grasslands andshrublands in many different ecosystems (although thisis not the case in tropical rainforests). They clear oldvegetation, return nutrients to the soil and allow sun toreach the forest floor. In some forests, fires occur naturally
every dry season.7 Burning light ground cover reduces
potential fuel loads, preventing more serious fires fromtaking hold, clearing the ground and aiding seed growth.
Some trees, such as sequoias in the US8, eucalypts inAustralia9, and pines in southern Europe,10 depend on fire
to trigger seed release and regenerate. Deliberate burns are
sometimes used by park rangers for this very reason.
In Australia, for example, Indigenous cultural fire
management is used to maintain the diversity and abundanceof vegetation and wildlife, and store carbon in landscapes.
The use of small-scale mosaic cultural burns also reduces thelikelihood of larger fires during hotter and drier months. This
practice also underpins multi-million-dollar carbon farming
contracts between Indigenous Rangers, governments andlarger polluting industries. Carbon farming entails farmingthat reduces greenhouse gas emissions or captures and holds
carbon in vegetation and soils.11 Since 2006, this method hasabated more than 5 million tons of carbon across 18 million
hectares of tropical savannahs and woodlands.12

Batemans Bay, NSW© WWF-Australia / Leonie Sii

Fires should not,therefore, be
suppressed completely
in areas where they
are part of the natural
cycle, rather theyshould be controlled as
far as possible and theireffects on ecosystems
managed. In fact, too muchfire suppression can have negative
impacts on animal and plant species that are adapted tonatural fire regimes. Around 1% of Sweden’s forest land used
to be burned yearly, but when the country began systematic
suppression of forest fires in the late 19th century, it resulted
in weaker trees that suffered higher mortality even at low
fire intensity.13 In North America, excessive fire suppression
in some areas has been linked to a decline in grizzly bearnumbers:14 berry-producing shrubs are a key food source, andthe shrubs need fires to proliferate – suppressing these fires
mean fewer shrubs, producing less food for grizzly bears.
The real problem, though, is when fires get out of control,
and when this happens, the damage can be catastrophic. For
example, 98% of the burned area in forests managed by the
US Forest Service between 1970 and 2002 was due to just
1.1% of the total number of fires recorded: a single runaway
wildfire can be next to impossible to stop.15

THE HUMAN FACTOR
SLASHAND BURN

BURNINGRUBBISH

ARSON

An increasing share of wildfires are
due to human activity, intentionalor otherwise. This is estimated to be
responsible for 75% of all wildfires
in recent years.16
In the Northern Hemisphere, mostfires are caused by negligence(e.g. burning rubbish and debris,
industrial accidents, agricultural
overspill etc.), and arson is also
sometimes to blame. In Europe,
negligence causes 95% of fires; inthe US, 84%.17 The most at-risk
locations are so-called ‘wildlandurban interfaces’, where significant
populations live in or near forests.
In more remote forest areas,
lightning is more likely to be
responsible – in Canada’s British
Columbia, only 40% of wildfires aretraced back to human origins.

INDUSTRIAL
ACCIDENTS

CONTROLLEDFIRESIn tropical and subtropicalregions, forest fires are mostly
intentionally set for land-use
change, clearing and preparing
new areas for cultivation. “Slashand burn” is a farming method
used in many countries, especiallyin Southeast Asia and Africa,
where trees are cut and burnt
to expand arable land while
enriching its soil with ashes andnutrients. Controlled fires are also
used deliberately on a much larger
scale in commercial agriculture,
clearing the ground for palm oil
plantations in Indonesia and cattle
ranches in Brazil – and these fires
frequently run out of control. In
the Brazilian Amazon, fires arealso part of a pattern of increasing
encroachment into public andIndigenous Peoples’ lands.
5SNAPSHOTS OF 2020: ALREADY A YEAR OF EXTREMES

2nd
SIGNIFICANT

RISE

Deforestation in thefirst four months of2020 suggests thearea burnt could
surpass the figures forall of 2019, reversing a
trend of continued falls
in recent decades.23

HIGHEST

30%
The worst wildfires in the
Chernobyl area’s history
began to burn in April, whilefires across the country haveincreased 30% this year.26

2019 saw the second highest levelof forest fires on record;24 2020 is
projected to affect an area at least as
large, if not larger. For an idea of scale,each year fires destroy three times theamount of forest lost to industrial logging
in Russia. Siberia has just experienced
its hottest April ever recorded.25

RUSSIAUKRAINETHAILANDCOLOMBIA
BOLIVIA

35%
Deforestation
drove a 35%
increase in fires
from January
to April 2020
compared tolast year.22

AUSTRALIABRAZIL
Forest loss in the firstsix months of the year
totalled 307,000 hectares,
26% more than the same
period in 2019.18 Increasing
deforestation is likely toresult in intense fires in the
Amazon biome, especiallyin government-controlledlands19– the number of fires
in the Brazilian Amazon hit a
13-year high in June, at the
beginning of the dry season.20
In July, 6,803 outbreaks offires were detected in the
Amazon,21 28% more than thesame period in 2019.

1/5

ALL TREES

20%
28%

The worst wildfires for decades
swept through Northern
Thailand in April, destroying
up to 20% of the forested area
and causing ‘critical levels’ of
air pollution in Chiang Mai.27

The 2019-2020
fire season was
the worst in the
country’s history.28
A fifth of theentire temperatebroadleaf andmixed forest biome
was destroyed,29
equivalent to anarea nearly thesize of England.30

COVID-19: FANNING THE FLAMESThe COVID-19 pandemic is impacting many of the world’s forests.
As some governments divert resources to the frontline fight against
the virus, forest patrols and enforcement have been scaled back or
stopped altogether. As a result, some countries have seen an increase in
deforestation and outbreaks of fires.
In the case of Brazil, COVID-19 appears to have helped the regime’s
stated intention to open the Amazon for business; environment
minister Ricardo Salles was recorded telling colleagues to “takeadvantage of the fact that the attention of the press is on the pandemic
to approve infra-legal reforms of deregulation of the environment.”31
Fire prevention resources themselves have also been scaled back. In
the US, for example, the Forest Service Chief has stated that due to thepandemic, fire resources will be used “only when there is a reasonable
expectation of success in protecting life and critical property andinfrastructure.”32

Fire in the urban area of Humaitá, at the South of Amazonas.
© Michael Dantas / WWF-Brasil

Not all biomes have the same sequestration power

AVERAGE CARBON QUANTITY SEQUESTERED BY BIOME(t CO2 per ha)n Quantity & location(biomass, soil) of CO2highly depends on biomesn Quantity of CO2 released
also depends on fires’severity: severity increases
release of CO2 sequesteredin soiln Among biomes with highsequestration capabilities,some are not resilient tofires (e.g. wetlands andtropical forest). In thoselandscapes, fire is not anatural phenomenon, but
a consequence of humanactivities.
Note : Unit chosen is t CO2, while some sources &reports use t C : 1t C = 3,66 t CO2. The figure does
not add up to 100% as deserts and inhabited areas
are excluded
1. Wetlands include all ecosystems permanently orseasonally flooded. Source: Carbon Sequestration
in forests (US Congress Research Service ; 2007)

n Biomassn SoilnS hare of world
land cover1

50%
50%

80%
20%

97%
3%

63%
37%

TROPICALFORESTSTROPICALSAVANNAS

TEMPERATEGRASSLANDSTEMPERATEFORESTS

84%
16%

95%
5%

94%
6%

99%
3%

BOREAL
FORESTSTUNDRAWETLANDS1CROPLANDS

23%

11%

WEIGHTED AVERAGE(% total carbon)

18%

9%

17%

<1%

24%

15%

N/A%

76%
7

2: CHANGING CLIMATE,
WORSENING TRENDSSURFACE BURNEDFREQUENCY

SEVERITY

Regardless of whether fires start naturally or are deliberately set, their overall impact on forests
has been growing in recent decades. By examining three factors – surface burned, frequency
and severity – the growing influence of climate change becomes obvious.
The carbon released into the atmosphere by fires further increases global heating, and the vicious circle gets worse. Thisestablishes a positive feedback loop that amplifies the role of extreme hot dry weather in generating more frequent intense fires
that in turn generate increased forest carbon emissions. As has been modelled for the Amazon rainforest,33 ongoing deforestationand global heating is projected to reach tipping points that would cause even the largest intact forest biomes to switch from net
sink to net source of billions of tonnes of sequestered forest carbon.

SURFACE BURNEDTHE AREA OFFOREST LOST TOFIRES GLOBALLY
HAS BEEN STEADILYDECLINING, BUT
UNLESS MORE IS
DONE TO FIGHT
THE EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE,THE GLOBAL CURVE
COULD BEND BACKUPWARDS

The area of land burned globally has actually beensteadily declining since it started to be recorded in
1900, and in this century (2000-2016) the annual
area burned has averaged 3.4 million km2, or justover 2% of the global land surface.34
But the picture varies around the world, andtoday figures suggest that unless more isdone to fight the effects of climate change,
the global curve could bend back upwards. In
North America, fewer but more severe wildfire
occurrences have led to recent increases in annual
area burned, which some estimates put at 5.3%
and 4.1% per year (1997-2016) in Canada andthe US respectively.35 Likewise, the enormous
wildfires which recently devastated large areasin Australia, Brazil and Russia point upwards
as well. Scientists predict climate change will
increase the annual area burned worldwide up
to levels not seen since the 1950s,36 but this can
be avoided if we adopt more sustainable land use
and management practices.

Enormous wildfires which recently devastated large areasin Australia. Wallabi Point, NSW. © Adam Stevenson

8FREQUENCY
THE GLOBAL
FIRE SEASONLENGTH HAS
INCREASED BY

19%

ON AVERAGE

Fire seasons are getting longer, and extreme fireseasons more common. From 1979 to 2013, theglobal fire season length increased by 19% on
average. This increase is particularly severe in east
Africa and Brazil, with the forests and savannahs
of South America experiencing an average of overone month increase in the fire season.37
Climate change is also making fire seasons
increasingly unpredictable. Instances of socalled ‘outliers’ – abnormally long fire seasons– have increased. This leaves less time outside
the season for prescribed fires, which makes
forest management more complex – andagain increases the chances of uncontrolled
wildfires occurring. More frequent fires also
prevent vegetation growing to a mature size
and reaching its full potential for carbon
sequestration. Fauna, too, can be affected byfires outside the normal season, as vulnerable
young are exposed to danger and nesting sites
and food sources are destroyed.

In Canada’s boreal forests, increasingly severe
wildfires have changed the local ecosystem in just a
few years Boreal Forest, Alberta, Canada © Global
Warming Images / WWF

Porto Velho, Brazil, 2019 © Michael Dantas / WWF-Brasil

SEVERITY
The impact of fires on ecosystems varies. Light fires may
only burn ground vegetation, leaving a thin layer of ash
and sometimes acting as a positive regenerative force. But
increasing global temperatures and more frequent rain-freedays are causing a decline in moisture from soil to treetops,38
meaning fires are burning much more severely and causing
greater damage to humans and nature alike.
In Canada’s boreal forests, increasingly severe wildfires havechanged the local ecosystem in just a few years – by removing
the ground layer of residual organic matter, they’ve allowed
jack pines to grow quickly and dominate the forest, harming
other vegetation and diminishing biodiversity.39
The word ‘unprecedented’ is frequently heard today when it
comes to fire severity. California provides a striking example:
over the last 100 years, five of its 20 most severe wildfires
occurred between 1920-2000, another five took place from2001-2010 – and the remaining 10 all happened in the last 10
years.40 In the 2019-2020 winter season, California only got
half its normal levels of precipitation;41 while Russia has justcome through its warmest winter since records began 140
years ago, beating its 2016 record by 1.3°C.42

INCREASING
GLOBALTEMPERATURESAND MORE
FREQUENT
RAIN-FREE DAYS
ARE LEADING TOFIRES BURNING
MORE SEVERELYIn the Mediterranean basin, despite a general decreasing
trend in the number of fires and burnt area since the 1980s,
the dangerous rise of large forest fires (i.e. those that burnmore than 500 hectares) continues. Between 2009 and 2018
these represented a mere 0.15% of total fire incidents by
number, but they burned 35% of the total fire-affected area.43

9Climate change made the conditions for Australia’s unprecedented recent bushfires 30% more likely.
Kangaroo Island bushfire aftermath. © WWF-Australia / Sii Studio

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST FIRES: A VICIOUS CIRCLE
Nearly a third – 31% – of the carbon dioxide
in forests globally is sequestrated in biomass
above the ground, while the remaining 69% isunderground.44 Fires release carbon trappedin vegetation and soils, and as their severity
increases, they begin to damage deeper layersof soil, releasing centuries-old ‘legacy carbon’.45
Often, when forests regrow after burning, they
are smaller, younger and drier than before,
and, in some ecosystems, their carbon storage
capacity is reduced. This results in a net increasein carbon emissions.46 Depending on species andgrowth speed, vegetation needs between 25- 250
years to reach its full sequestration potential:47 as
the interval between fires shortens, this becomes
harder to achieve.

Much of the increasing impact of forest fires in
the Northern Hemisphere is driven by climatechange. Meanwhile, increasing emissions fromfires in the forests of the global south – where
ecosystems sequester the highest amounts ofcarbon – are driving further global heating.
One recent study found that climate change
made the weather conditions for Australia’s
unprecedented recent bushfires 30% more
likely.48 The extreme fires around the worldin 2019 – from the Arctic to the Amazon –contributed an estimated one fifth of the global
carbon emissions from burning fossil fuelsthat year (not factoring in carbon drawn backdown through regrowth);49 and so the cycle
continues.

GLOBALLY, IN FORESTS

31%

OF CARBON DIOXIDE IS
ABOVE THE GROUND,
WHILE THE REMAINING

69%

IS UNDERGROUND

CLIMATE CHANGE WORKS DIRECTLY ON THE THREE MAIN ‘COMPONENTS’ OF A WILDFIRE:
IGNITION

Most naturally induced wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere are caused by lightning strikes, and climate change
is increasing the occurrence of severe storms which produce them. In the boreal forests of Alaska and northern
Canada wildfires due to lightning increased by 2-5% every year between 1975 and 2014.50

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS

In a matter of decades, climate change can modify meteorological and fire patterns. The warming North Pole
has reduced the temperature gap with the Equator, slowing Jet Stream flows over the northern hemisphere:
this causes both longer wet periods that promote quick vegetation growth, and longer heatwaves that dry the
extra vegetation, lower atmospheric humidity, and make ecosystems more fire-prone.51 Strong winds are also an
important factor in some cases; in the serious fires of 2017 in the Iberian Peninsula, flames exceeded 6km/h, a
speed three to nine times above the firefighting capacity.52

FUEL

Climate change dries soils, exposes vegetation to longer extreme weather events, reduces small-scale regenerative fires andaccelerates the spread of pests and disease; all these factors kill trees, leading to an increased accumulation of flammablematerial. In North America, climate change has promoted the rapid growth and spread of bark beetles, which havedestroyed millions of hectares – in 2011, the pest was responsible for an astonishing 59% of all tree mortality in US forests.53
10

3: THE CONSEQUENCES
Globally, fires emit carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to the European Union
every year.54 Their contribution to the climate crisis alone would be more thanenough of a reason for the global community to treat their increase as a major
threat. But that’s not all: wildfires also have severe consequences for humanhealth and wellbeing, biodiversity, and economies around the world.

HEALTH AND
WELLBEINGIn terms of direct fatalities, wildfires
appear less dangerous than many otherdisasters. While they kill between
100-400 people each year,55 they
represented only 0.2% of deaths fromnatural hazards over the last two
decades (earthquakes, by comparison,
are responsible for more than 50%).56
Still, fire emergencies have major shortterm impacts on local populations. In
2017, around 550,000 people worldwide
had to be evacuated because of wildfires;57
and it can be a major challenge to meet
the basic survival needs of those affected.
Wildfires can hit Indigenous Peoples’
lands particularly hard, destroying foodand water sources and disrupting theirlivelihoods and cultural practices. Last
year’s fires in the Brazilian Amazon
affected 148 indigenous territories.58
Indonesia’s 2015 fire season, meanwhile,
led to the closure of schools and affected
more than 5 million students,59 7% of all
the young people in the country.

5 MILLION

Indonesia’s 2015 fire season led to the closure of schools and affected more than 5 million students.
© Brent Stirton / Getty Images / WWF

INDONESIA’S FIRE SEASON LED TO THE
CLOSURE OF SCHOOLS AND AFFECTED
MORE THAN 5 MILLION STUDENTS
11

Bushfires in Australia impacted already vulnerable species such as koalas. © WWF-Australia / Douglas Thron

Fast-moving, highly destructive debris
flows triggered by intense rainfall are
one of the most dangerous post-firehazards. The risk of floods and debris
flows after fires increases, due tovegetation loss and soil exposure. Casesof sudden and deadly debris flow are
well documented along the western
United States, particularly in Southern
California.64 These flows are a risk tolife and property because they can occur
with little warning, exert great impulsive
loads on objects in their path, and may
strip vegetation, block drainage ways,
and damage infrastructure. A study in
Greece following the 2007 Peloponnese
fires showed that flood risk increases up
to 10 years after the fire and the resulting
destruction of vegetation.65
Wildfires can also have significant
negative impacts on mental health:recent studies showed that after amajor wildlife in Canada, a third– possibly reaching up to 60% –experienced provisional post-traumaticstress disorder.66

BIODIVERSITY
The increasing frequency and severityof wildfires pose a growing threat tobiodiversity globally.

26

In Australia, the catastrophic wildfires
in 2019-20 are estimated to havekilled or displaced up to 3 billion
animals, including already vulnerable
species such as koalas.67 Twenty-six
native species, making up 6% of theAustralian Environment Protection andBiodiversity Conservation Act List of
Threatened Fauna, were pushed closer
to extinction as more than 30% of theirhabitat was burnt.68 Seven billion plants
were also impacted by the fires.69

NATIVE
AUSTRALIAN
SPECIES WEREPUSHED CLOSER
TO EXTINCTION
AS MORE THAN

30%

Globally, fires falling outside natural
patterns are jeopardizing the survivalof wildlife, which are killed or injured
through direct contact with smokeand flames or suffer widespread
habitat destruction. Borneo’s criticallyendangered orang-utans, whose
numbers have fallen by 60% since 1950,
are also affected by fires consuming
their habitat and food supplies.

OF THEIR
HABITAT WAS
BURNT© WWF-Australia / Leonie Sii

The effects of wildfires linger longafter the flames die down, hitting
public health and wellbeing far into
the future. Every year, there are an
estimated 340,000 premature deaths
from respiratory and cardiovascularissues attributed to wildfire smoke.60
Eighty percent of these deaths occur
in Southeast Asia and sub-SaharanAfrica.61 Non-fatal illnesses also cause
major upheavals: in 2019, almost 1
million Indonesians suffered from
respiratory problems caused by smokefrom forest and peatland fires.62 Ata time when the world is grapplingwith the Covid-19 pandemic, wildfire
smoke increases the danger of further
respiratory illnesses.63

12

PROPERTY VALUESDECREASE FROM

10-20%IN AREAS AFFECTED BY WILDFIRES
Researchers have also found that smoke from fires could leadto weaker immune systems in orang-utans.70 The 2019 fires
in the Amazon, too, took a heavy toll on native animals not
adapted to cope with fires, altering food chains and upsetting
the balance of ecosystems.71
In boreal forests, frequent high-intensity fires are also
disrupting natural balances: following extremely severe firesin Russia in 1998, more than 2 million hectares of forests losttheir capacity to store carbon, cycle nutrients and perform
other ecological functions, for as long as 100 years.72
In the tropics and sub-tropics, severe droughts have madetropical rainforests more susceptible to unusual wildfires – whenthese fires burn, seeds and young trees not naturally protectedby thick bark are destroyed.73 Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean,
wildfires as well as altered fire regimes are increasingly affecting
ecosystems that have no adaptive traits of post-fire seeddispersal or of natural regeneration, such as black pine and fir
forests. This directly affects the extent of these rare forests.74

ECONOMIC LOSSESThe economic costs of wildfires are going up all over the world
as fires increase in frequency and severity.
On an individual level, fires drastically worsen living conditions,and this has economic consequences: in the US property values
decrease from 10-20% in areas affected by wildfires.75
The private sector can be severely disrupted too, with companies
facing fire-related supply chain interruptions. Some sectors get hit
particularly hard: Australia’s 2019 bushfires are thought to havecost the country’s tourism industry $2.9 billion.76 Indonesia’s fireseason also sees multiple tourist trips cancelled every year.
The direct costs of managing fires77 are usually borne by publicauthorities. These are made up of prevention costs to stop
fires happening (for firefighting patrols, fuel management,
community education, etc.) and suppression costs when they
break out (equipment and product usage, emergency evacuations,etc). Governments tend to focus on the latter, which has greater
immediate visibility yet does not solve the problem in the long run.
But these fire management costs are dwarfed by the losses thefires themselves can cause. While a wide range of figures arequoted in the literature, the central estimate in the US is that
total fire costs are 20 times the suppression costs78– and these
are largely carried by populations and companies.79 In 2018,
the wildfire season cost the US around $50 billion in total80 – a
figure approaching the turnover of Facebook for the same year.81
The direct costs of managing fires are usually borne by public authorities, made up
of prevention costs to stop fires happening – firefighting patrols, fuel management,
community education © APCOB

Indonesia’s economy has also suffered considerably fromwildfires: in 2015, the costs were around $16 billion, equivalent
to 1.9% of GDP.82

13

4: NEXT STEPS – URGENT ACTION
Fires in 2020 are on course to be worse than in 2019. Fires are a criticalglobal issue that needs urgent global solutions.

Bushfire in Bowraville, New South Wales, Australia, November 2019 © Adam Dederer

While headlines focus on the Brazilian Amazon, equal
attention should be paid to countries like Canada, the US,
Australia and Russia. For the last 20 years, these have all seen
an increase in the average annual area burnt, with repeatedfires leaving little to no time for recovery in between. And
some countries are seeing patterns changing with frightening
speed – extreme events this year in Russia already suggest its
wildfires could be 10 times worse than in 2019.
To have any chance of restricting the rise in global
temperatures to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement, moreneeds to be done to cut carbon emissions from forest fires, bygovernments, businesses, communities and individuals alike.
The best place to start is to focus on the causes and the factors
driving them.

RAISE CLIMATE CHANGEAMBITION WORLDWIDECurrent national pledges for emission reductions set us oncourse for a world that is on average around 3°C warmer thanpre-industrial times. The impacts of this are many and varied,
but more severe fires in many parts of the world is one of them.
The very significant consequences of these fires, as discussed
above, provide even more reason for all governments to raise
their ambition on climate change mitigation in their Nationally

Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
In the run-up to the UNFCCC conference in 2021, countries
have the opportunity to do so. Moreover, in their national
climate plans for mitigation and adaptation they should
integrate measures that can reduce the incidence and impact ofwildfires in a sustainable way.

3°C

PLEDGES FOR EMISSIONS REDUCTIONSSET US ON COURSE FOR A WORLD THAT
IS ON AVERAGE AROUND 3°C WARMER
THAN PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIMESCountries can strengthen their NDCs by
including language that:
1. acknowledges the risk of fires to the long-term viabilityof ecosystems such as forests that serve as carbon
sinks and,2. seeks to manage such risks for the future health andresilience of those ecosystems. Fire risk management
could be addressed through management plans that
include climate variability and impacts, methodologies
or technologies to ensure ecosystem adaptability, etc.

14BR-319 highway, on the route between the cities of Porto Velho and Humaitá.
© Michael Dantas / WWF-Brasil

IMPROVE PARISAGREEMENT ACCOUNTINGFOR EMISSIONS FROM
‘NON-ANTHROPOGENIC’ FIRES
Greenhouse gas emissions released from fires thatare considered natural, or non-anthropogenic,
are excluded in states’ NDCs under the Paris
Agreement. Only deliberately lit fires are included,
such as those to deforest land.
All greenhouse gas emissions from ‘natural’ fires
are assumed to be reabsorbed as forests regrow.83
This assumption of the carbon neutrality of ‘natural’
forest fires assumes a steady climate that allows
natural forest regrowth in the years to centuries
following a fire.84

REINVEST IN PREVENTION
Budgetary constraints and political expediency have gradually pushed many
countries away from proactivity to reactivity, prioritizing fire suppression
over fire prevention.
Over the last decade in the US, for example, the fire management
budget has been cut from $6 billion to $4.75 billion, while the focus on
suppression has increased from 11% to 55%.85 Likewise, in the wildfireprone Mediterranean, only 20% of the total firefighting budget is spent on
prevention.86
In the long run this approach does not tackle the causes of fires: the morebudgets lean towards reactive measures, the worse the consequences of fires
become – the same could be said for the long-term costs to human health.

TOO MUCH FOCUS ON SUPPRESSION SHOWS ADVERSE EFFECTS
IN FIRES PREVALENCE, CREATING A VICIOUS CIRCLE

But it raises the question of what now is considered‘natural’ fire.
As the field of climate attribution develops,
greenhouse gas emissions released by fires that are
natural versus fires that are amplified by climatechange will be increasingly open to quantification.
A growing number of scientists believe that
increases in fire frequency, intensity and scale areoutstripping the capacity of forests to regrow after
fires. When coupled with reduced precipitation, thisreduces the capacity of forests to sequester 100%of the carbon emissions released by previous fires,
causing net increases in forest carbon emissions.
This occurs through resetting the fire-recovery
cycle, which prevents sufficient sequestration
before subsequent fires, as well as driving droughts,
deforestation and forest degradation.

INCREASING FEQUENCY& SEVERITY OFFIRESCONSTRAINEDBUDGET

INSUFFICIENTPREVENTION

FOCUS ON
SUPPRESSION

15

Increasing budgets in the short term to get suppression fully
under control, and then rebalancing them towards prevention
when the situation stabilises, would pay dividends.
Fire prevention requires an active commitment fromgovernment at different levels, with increased sub-national
involvement. A key intervention is to control land-use change,
conversion for agriculture that drives deforestation and boostingsustainable alternatives. And for forest regulations to have an
impact, they need to be strictly enforced. Indigenous peoples canalso play a critical role in sustainably managing their forests andmust be empowered through having control over their lands,
support for traditional knowledge and training where needed.
Rewetting drained peatlands is also an important step in fire
prevention. Peatlands store 500-600 gigatons of carbon87 andare strategic for climate change mitigation.88
Finally, a proactive policy and management approach isneeded when fires do occur: burned areas shouldn’t be left tobe taken over by opportunistic land-grabbers, but should be
rehabilitated and managed sustainably to prevent future fires.

HALT DEFORESTATION
Deforestation and fires go hand-in-hand in the Amazon
and many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Expansion ofagriculture, tree plantations and illegal and unsustainable

logging continue to drive conversion and degradation of natural
habitats, thereby increasing the risk of fires.
It is critical to align public and private sector efforts to addresscommodity-driven deforestation and conversion, and policies
that address both production and consumption are urgently
needed. There does not need to be a conflict between increasing
production of food and other commodities like wood andrubber. These activities can be intensified on already cleared
land without venturing further into natural frontiers, thereby
disrupting rainfall cycles and leading to drier conditions – aswell as facilitating further entry into the frontier by other actors.

REINSTATE FIRE WHERE IT HAS
BEEN EXCLUDED
In some temperate and Mediterranean climate regions of theworld, maintaining diversity requires reintroduction of fire
to fire-dependent landscapes. When carefully managed, thisalso reduces fuel loads, empowers Indigenous communities,
generates better livelihoods, and improves storage of carbon invegetation and soil.
This needs to occur through careful consultation withlandowners and managers, fire authorities, Indigenous
communities and fire ecologists.

CLARIFY GOVERNANCE, COORDINATE POLICIESPREVENTION & RISKREDUCTION/MITIGATIONPREPAREDNESS &DETECTION

Fire prevention plays out across many different levels, fromgovernment planning to grassroots forest foot patrols. It’s
crucial for national, regional and local authorities to coordinate
between stakeholders (communities, businesses, farmers,
cooperatives, Indigenous Peoples etc) to set up effective
management regimes, depending on existing policies and thegaps between them.
Well-designed approaches and clear incentives (both monetaryand non-monetary)89 must be in place for initiatives to prevent
forest fires, with penalties to deter risky behaviours.
Community awareness and resilience is important, as local
communities play an important role in fire prevention

FIRES SUPPRESSION &EMERGENCY RELIEF

RECOVERY/REHABILITATION

and mitigation, both in the short and long term. Public
programmes can have a long-term sustainable impact ifthey’re well planned, from spreading awareness througheducation (school curriculum etc), to increasing empowerment
through volunteering (firefighting patrols etc), to improving
compliance with regulations in relevant areas (real estate,outdoor activities etc). As an example, in Thailand, WWF andpartners have helped set up a Community Forest Fire Protection
Unit to support and strengthen the communities’ and local
administrative organizations’ capacity in climate adaptation,
nature-based solutions and managing natural resources in asustainable way. This includes prevention of and preparation
for disasters and handling of climate change risks.90
16

AT GOVERNMENT LEVEL, FOCUS SHOULD BE ON TACKLING THE ROOT CAUSES OF FIRESRATHER THAN STRUGGLING WITH THEIR CONSEQUENCES

DRIVE REHABILITATION OF
DESTROYED AREAS

DEVELOP AN ACTIVE
PREVENTION STRATEGYCONTROL LAND USE
CHANGE

LEVERAGE LOCALCOMMUNITIESIDENTIFY ALL RISKFACTORSnP
 revent
opportunistic
exploitation ofburned areas (foragriculture)nS hift resources
towards
prevention,
especiallyeducational
programs andfuel management
activitiesnH
 alt deforestationbased agriculture,especially intropical areasnP artner with local
communities
to reduce fire
ignition risk, andempower theseto sustainably
manage theirforestsnA
 uthorities
should map allrisk factors, andact accordingly(anticipate andprepare ahead of
extreme events,
such as El Nino)nR ehabilitate areas
and manage thosesustainablynP reserve integrityof IPLC’s owned
lands

Alcides Pinto, leader of the Río Blanco community, walks through the forest where the fire burned. This forest is
precious to the community, its livelihoods come from the resources provided by the trees. © Kreich / WWF Bolivia

17

USE THE SCIENCE
A science-based approach is needed to forecast risk and prioritizeinterventions, which are both critical elements in preventing fires
before they need to be suppressed. More use should be made ofdata analytics and knowledge to develop holistic forecasting andrisk assessment tools. These tools should then play a central rolein decision-making. Innovation should be encouraged, and newtechniques trialled.
Areas for development include science-based diagnostics to identify
fire-prone areas, variables affecting ignition, populations at risk,
and climate and biodiversity impact. Fire science data on factors likeweather, climate, forest carbon hotspots, danger rating, biodiversity
and land use can be used to create early warning and monitoring
systems tailored to local conditions.

BRING BUSINESSES ON
BOARD
Government action alone will not be enough to address
the issue; the private sector has a crucial role to play
too. There are many different ways companies can takeaction: one of the most effective is to set and implement
deforestation and conversion-free commitments in linewith guidance provided by the Accountability Framework.

In addition, fire suppression and management methods andtechnology should be improved, to enable forest fires large or small
to be extinguished in a safer and cheaper manner. Innovation,
research and development should be encouraged.

Taking these efforts to the next step, companies involved
in sectors including agriculture, leisure and tourism,
energy and utilities, extractive industries and forestry canalso make a difference by insisting on deforestation andconversion-free supply chains, raising standards acrossthe board. What’s more, as consumers around the world
are increasingly backing sustainable businesses there’s
a growing economic inventive for companies to ensure
they’re not contributing to the wildfire crisis.

When fires do occur, impact assessments and awareness ofalternative restoration models should help to prioritize rehabilitative
actions. In addition, more data-based assessments are needed on
the full accounting of the economic impacts of fires across the social,economic, biodiversity and climate dimensions, as well as a better
understanding of approaches to incentivize better use of land.

Broader corporate social responsibility (CSR) activity
could include supporting local communities andcreating non-profit partnerships for fire prevention
and suppression activities; as well as incorporating
fire risk reduction into corporate programmes to offset
carbon emissions.

INDIVIDUALS: EVERYONE HAS A ROLE TO PLAY
Wildfires are a global problem – and need to be prioritized in public policy
and health policy, just as the world has come together to fight COVID-19.
On the most basic level, individuals can take simple precautions not to start
accidental blazes – in the US, human negligence has been found to be one of
the top three causes of wildfires, and in the Mediterranean, it’s responsible
for as many as 40% of fires.91 As increasing areas of the world become‘wildland-urban interfaces’, disposing of flammable waste and being carefulwhen burning rubbish really does make a difference.
Citizens can support civil society organizations, too; local communities,
volunteers and conservation organisations are doing invaluable fieldwork
on fire prevention, but they need more support. As COVID-19 strains
emergency budgets supporting these efforts has never been more important.
Depending on their location and personal circumstances, some people may
even be moved to activism, volunteering as forest watchers or firefighters.

Women from the Río Blanco indigenous community in the
Chiquitano Dry Forest use trees as a valuable resource.
Here is Polonia, the leader of the women’s association
with a copaiybo tree. © RKreich / WWF Bolivia

And for those of who don’t live in a wildfire hotspot, raising awarenessis also crucial: the more people understand about just how big a threat
wildfires pose to the future of the planet and people, the more support they’ll
give to the cause. Being an informed tourist and a sustainable consumer
helps too – by being more aware of what’s on our plate, and consciously
avoiding choices that drive deforestation and land conversion, we canbecome part of the solution.

18

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20

OUR MISSION IS TO CONSERVENATURE AND REDUCE THE
MOST PRESSING THREATSTO THE DIVERSITY OF LIFEON EARTH.

Rio Negro National Park in front of Outquis National Park before wildfires,
July 2019 © Gianfranco Mancussi - WWF Paraguay© 2020© 1986 Panda symbol WWF – World Wide Fund for Nature (Formerly World Wildlife Fund)® “WWF” is a WWF Registered Trademark.
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