Nov 13-17, 2023
EarthCARE Science and VAlidation WS, Frascati

The path of the EarthCARE mission development
toward understanding global radiation, cloud, andaerosol interaction-Long winding road (dialogue w Thorsten)Teruyuki Nakajima
Emeritus Prof. University of Tokyo(terry-nkj@nifty.com)
Acknowledgments: JMAG, ScienceTeam, Space agencies

I am an old man ... going to talkold stories...
... Once upon a time...

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Climate change issues⚫ Stern report (2006): Global warming of 2 - 3℃ will cause damage corresponding

to 0-3% of GDP⚫ Climate Change Adaptation Act, Japan (2018)⚫ JMA new warning notice Level-5 （2019）: Residents in the target area areencouraged to take immediate actions to save lives• 2018 July: West Japan heavy rain, 200 dead• 2019 Oct.: Super Typhoon#19, Category-5; 88 dead,4000 in evacuation life
⚫ 2023: Word record of warming “Era of global warming
ends, Era of global boiling has arrived ” UN Chief⚫

S. Manabe won the Nobel Prize in Physics 2011: aPhysics Committee member said ‘Climate modeling isphysics’ in the press conference(The Guardian Digital)

Prof. S. Manabe

Mabi town, Oda-river flood
Hokuriku Shinkansen super express
trains in the Chikuma-river flooding

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Long winding road of EarthCARE mission
Boyle's law 1662
Industrial revolution mid 17C

Hadley circulation 1735

Fourier, radiation effect 1824
Arrhenius, global warming 1896

IMO 1879

IUGG:100th anniversary
2019
IUGG 1919

IGY 1957-58
TIROS-1 meteorol. satellite
1960
CO2 monitoring at Mauna Loa 1958
Global warming GCM, Manabe,
Wetherald 1975

Graeme sent us an email for
CPR meeting 1993 May
ESSP sat cost caps...
Joint CloudSat-MDS/Atmos-Bmtg 1997

Ozone hole, Farman
et al 1985TRMM 1997
Crutzen, Molina,Rowland: Nobel Prize in
Chemistry 1995

ESA Granada review1: Earth Explores
4 missions to two (GOCE, ADM) 1999

MTPE/TERRA 1999
CLOUDSAT, CALIPSO 2006

Hurricane Katrina 2005
Extreme weather increase

GPM Core 2014

Aeolus/Aladin 2018
Manabe, Hasselmann,Parisi, Nobel Prize inPhysics 2021

Earth radiationbudget, Ice cloud

ERM
ESA Granada review2: EarthCare
selected 2001
Doppler
Aerosol and cloud

EarthCARE launch

4Back in early 1990s• UK WCRP/GEWEX, 1993:
Concept for a spaceborne cloudradar system• Brown, P.R.A., A.J. Illingworth, A.J. Heymsfield,G.M. McFarquhar, K.A. Browning, and M.
GOsset, 1995: The role of spaceborne
millimeter-wave radar in the global monitoringof ice cloud. J. Appl. Meteorol., 34, 2346-2366.

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3D Earth Radiative energy Budget (ERB)
Error in two stream method: <~10Wm-2 (Barker+, 2015)⚫ 3D effect: SW 200%~, LW 20%~
(Marshak&Davis. 2005)⚫ Jakub&Mayer. (2016): 3D effecthelps warm cloud organization,
10 stream 3D RT in LES⚫

Barker+ (J.Q.R. Meteorol. Soc., 2011): A
methodology for 3D scene construction
Okata+ (JGR’17)
added cloud
microphysics fromimager (COT, RE, Tc)

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Clear-sky obscuring effect
IPA, TIPA approx.

ISS photo

Upper-cloudroughened type,bright sides
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Low-cloudroughened type,light guide effectOkata+ (JGR’17)

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Aerosol characterization from satellites
AVHRR: AOT&AE(Higurashi+, JC’00)

small

POLDER, POLDER2,PARASOL(Herman+, JGR’97;
Dubovik+, AMT’11)
3D: CALIPSO Lidar(Winker+, BAMS’10)

UV, Blue absorbing
soil
dust

blackcarbon

MODIS: Deep blue
(Hsu+, JGR’13)
2D, Polarization:

UV-SSA

340nm
380nm
412nm

organiccarbon

smoke

sulfatelargesize
seasalta

Volcanic Plume,
Mt. Oyama,Miyakejima
Sulfate, Carbonaceous, Soil Dust,
Sea Salt
SeaWiFS(412, 443, 670, 865nm)

z
Non-absorbing

CAI-2

4ch-method:
Higurashi&Nakajima(GRL'02)
340nm signature ofcarbonaceous from GOSAT-2/CAI2(2019 Australian forest fire)

ARFINET
Fine (blue) and coarse aerosols (red) from NOAA11/AVHRR(2 ch-method with 670, 865nm; Higurashi et al., JC 2000)

Validation of BC retrieval from340nm, 380nm of G2/CAI2(FOV500m) Gogoi+ (ACP 2000)

Shi+ (ACP’19,IEEETGRS’20)

8Aerosol-low cloud interaction
2000s: b(WLP)>0(lifetime regime)
AVHRR ocean: +0.2
(Nakajima+, GRL’01)
MODIS global: +0.04(Sekiguchi+, JGR'03)
POLDER: +0.2 (Quaas+,JGR’04)
MIROC: +0.06 (Suzuki+,JAS’04)

Interaction slopes:

2010s: b(LWP)<0(extinction regime)
Satellite (A-Train): -0.05(Michibata+, ACP’16)
GOCART: -0.2 (Matsui+,JGR’06)
NICAM-Chem (14km) -0.1
(Y.Sato+, Nature-C’18)

2𝑟𝜏
𝑊 = 𝜌𝑤
3𝑁𝑎 ~𝛼𝜏𝑎 (AI)𝑑ln 𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑙𝑛 𝜏𝑐𝑏 𝑅𝐸 =, 𝑏 𝐶𝑂𝑇 =𝑑ln𝑁𝑎
𝑑𝑙𝑛𝑁𝑎b(LWP) = b(COT) + b(CDR)
Lifetime regime

Land area: b(COT, b(RE)>0 (Anti-Twmey regime)
MODIS land: +0.2 (Myhre+, ACP’07)
POLDER land total: +0.04, (Quaas+, ACP’04, land)

2003 April

Sekiguchi03,Sb(COT)MIROC-SPRINTARSTERRA-MODIS (NASA) Takemura, Okamoto et al. (JGR'00)

Suzuki04,MIROC
Quaas04,S

Quaas04,S,LMDZ

Myhre07,L
Myhre07,S

Kaufman05,Atlantic
Extinctionregime

Quaas04,L,LMDZ

Matsui06,S
Matsui06,S,GOCART

AOT550

AOT550RE

Quaas04,L,total

MODIS
NICAM

Droplet evaporation;
washout feedback

RE (µm)AntiTwomey
regimeb(RE)Nakajima&Schulz, (Heintzenberg,Charlson eds, MIT Press’09)

9Cloud-aerosol interaction inconsistencies???
NICAM-Chem model (14km)(Sato+, Nature-C’18)
~-0.1

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MIROC-SPRINTARS GCM (300km)~+0.1

b(LWP)

Satellite Obs. (A-Train, active)(Michibata+, ACP’16)~-0.05

CFODD (COD vs radar refl. plot)

Discussion started:• Rosenfeld+ (Science’19)• Sato&Suzuki (Science’19)

optical depth

MODIS-CloudSatCauses???
• Horizontal resolution?
• Cloud & rain scheme OK?: DIAG vs PROG
• Entrainment, cloud top evaporation• Sampling methods (time, location)• Cloud scavenging region (clear bias)• Ice cloud effect?

rcrit=6.0mm

Cloud radar reflectivity (dBz)rcrit=8.2mm
TY Nakajima+(JAS’10)
Suzuki+ (GRL’13)
Golaz+ (GRL’13)

rcrit=10.6mm

Concept of Efficacy(Hansen+, 2005)

dTs/dRf / (dTs/dRf)CO2

GMSAT anomaly（℃）

Suzuki&Takemura (JGR’18 )Takemura&Suzuk (Sci Rep’19)
Sulfate:strong
ERF bydirect andcloudindirectRFs

Stohl+ (ACP'15)
GMSAT anomaly（℃）

Weak efficacy of BC
direct climate effectTs(zero land emission) - Ts(2008)
OCBC

SulfateBC: weak ERF
to precip???

AtmosphericstabilitychangeCounter
negative
cloud RF

Instantaneous RF (W/m2)

Cloud amount change for
10xBC

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Missing heat sink problem in global warming
Global mean surface air temperaturechange (°C)

Mitchell+ (Nature'95)
CO2 (effective)
CO2+Sulfate direct effectObservation

RF to 2005
LLGHGs: +2.7 W/m2
well understood
2000's: Direct: -0.3
(Larger BC)
Cloud albedo：-0.6(Various & ice response)
2010’s:BC direct: smaller
Cloud indirect: smaller

Cloud effect ofaerosols
Large cloud droplet

Air pollution
aerosols
become manysmall droplets

Current:• Missing sink again fromvertical observation andGCRM???
• Multi-layer and ice
clouds ???

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What is the doom of absorped solar energy?
Fast system

Suzuki&Takemura(SOLA ’00)

Stephens+ (Proc. R. Soc. ’22)
• A decreasing trend of ERB with Earthalbedo change: aerosol change• There are differences in some climate
model interpretation: need study

𝒅𝑭𝑹𝒅𝑻𝒔= 𝟒𝜺𝝈𝑻𝟑𝒔 + 𝜷𝜶 + 𝜷𝜺+⋯𝜷(𝒕) =Slow systemtime dependenceof the feedbackparameters⚫ A decreasing trend of AOT in ISCCP

data: Mishchenko (Science’07),
whereas the cloudiness is very
stable⚫ Precipitation, rapid and then slow

climate system, and thenfeedbacks?(Sherwood+, Rev.
Geophys., 2000)

GPM
observations(provided byProf. Takayabu,Univ. Tokyo)

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Adventures continue
Earth explorer/EarthCARE(ESA-JAXA)

NASA AOS mission

Sentinel-5/３MIAerosol-Cloud-Precip

Activesensing,
Doppler

GOSAT-GW etc
GHGs

Multi-angle polarization

Geostationary chemistry14

Conclusions⚫ Atmospheric particulate matter impact on theearth radiation budget significant, but still needs
studies for understandings and future projection⚫ Aerosol, cloud and precipitation being linked(EarthCARE, NASA/AOS programme)⚫ 3D and wide spectram data needed: EarthCARE,
Sentinel-5/3MI, GOSAT-GW, Global geostational
chemical satellites (GEMS, Sentinel-4, TEMPO)
etc⚫ Validation and assimilation needed by highresolution transport models, ground-based
networks, and AI technologies
15• E. Raschke• R. Kandel• K. Terada• A. Lefevble• P. Ingmann• P. Baptista• T. Wehr• H.Kumagai• T. Kimura• R. Oki• ...
Thanks!

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