こうえいフォーラム第 16 号 / 2007.12

Landslide Management by Community Based Approachin the Republic of Armenia
アルメニア国におけるコミュニティ・ベーズト・アプローチによる地すべり管理森

幹尋 *・細田年晃 *・石川由基 **・津田雅丈 ***・藤元亮 ****・岩間倫秀 *****

Mikihiro MORI, Toshiaki HOSODA , Yuki ISHIKAWA, Masatake TUDA, Ryo FUJIMOTO and Tomohide IWAMA

アルメニア国は山岳国であり、居住地の 40% が地すべり地形上に分布する。国土の年降水量は
一般的に小さいため地すべり地の多くは沈静化している。しかし居住地においては、散水や漏水が、地すべり活性に大きな影響を与えている。2004 年度の調査では全市町村の 12% から地すべり被害が報告されている。パイロットプロジェクトでは、住民参加により、コミュニティ道路の排水対策が計画・実施され、地すべりの鎮静化と、降雨・融雪時に泥濘化していた村道の改善に対し顕著な効果が得られた。

Keywords ： 地すべり、コミュニティ・ベーズド・アプローチ

too small to be identified using map aerial photography,

1.OUTLINE OF THE STUDY
Government of Japan conducted the study on
Landslide Disaster Management in the Republic of
Armenia (RA) as request by Government of Armenia.
And the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
selected a team which conducted the Study from March
2004 to December 2005.

covering a gross area of 2,500 km2, i.e., 8% of the area ofRA as shown in Fig.1 and Table 1.
Although landslide area is relatively dense in a large
annual precipitation zone found as shown in Fig.2,
amount of rainfall in RA is small (200mm/year-1,200
mm year) such that rainfall alone can not explain thelandslides development. Therefore leakage/pouring from

2.LANDSLIDE SITUATION IN THE REPUBLIC OFARMENIAThe JICA study team identified 2,504 landslides
using maps, aerial photography and reports of damage.

domestic and irrigation water supply systems may havebeen the additional cause of landslide activation.
Landslide activation is also significantly associatedwith snowmelt, when the amount of water in the ground

However, the landslides which are too small to be
identified using maps and aerial photography, and thosewith no damage records were excluded. Of these 2,504
landslides, 68, or around 3%, are causing progressive
damage. While those which are dormant with pastdamage number 77, are also around 3%. No damages
have been reported for the remaining 2,359 landslides(around 94%). Around 40% of Armenian settlements arelocated on land affected by these 2,504 landslides.
According to correlation analysis of the detected
landslides, there are estimated to be 53,000 landslidesof 1 hectare (ha) or more including landslides that are*
コンサルタント海外事業本部**
コンサルタント海外事業本部*** コンサルタント国内事業本部**** 仙台支店 技術部***** 札幌支店 技術部

都市社会事業部
都市社会事業部
地球環境事業部

都市環境部
開発計画部
地盤環境部

Fig. 1 Correlation of Area of Displaced Mass of IndividualLandslides and Number of Landslides (Based on
2,504 Identified Landslides)
135

Landslide Management by Community Based Approach in the Republic of Armenia

Table 1  Numbers and Area of landslides Based on Area of Displaced MassArea of Displaced Mass

Numbers ofLandslide

AccumulatedArea of Percentage ofArea of Landslides to whole area
Landslidesof the RA

Identified numbers and area based on landslide inventory study
Larger than 1000 ha

742,4281.4%

Larger than 100 ha

276

68,442

2.3%

Larger than 50 ha

582

89,6783.0%

Larger than 20 ha

1,296

222,780

3.8%

Estimated value according to correlation analysis based on the number and area of identified landslides (There are not identified
landslides which are smaller than 20ha and damages are not reported, because they are too small for map and aerophotographinterpretation).
Larger than 10 ha
3,500
140,000
4.8%
Larger than 5 ha

8,000

170,000

5.8%

Larger than 2 ha

23,000210,000

7.1%

Larger than 1 ha

53,000250,000

8.2%

increases as shown in Fig.3. and Fig.4. And most unpaved
community roads become muddy in this snowmelt season
as shown in Fig.5.

Fig. 2 Landslide Area Density of Each Annual Precipitation
Zone (2,504 identified landslides)
The landslide density is relatively small in near active
fault area as shown in Fig 6. The submerged areas
along active faults are generally sediment planes andlakes where there are no existing or potential landslide
formations. The other, upheaval areas along active faults
are new slopes where area density of landslides is small.
However, there is a possibility of new landslides that
may have occurred due to seismic activity.

136

Fig. 3 Landslide Movement in Gosh Village (December
2004 to March 2005)こうえいフォーラム第 16 号 / 2007.12

3.LANDSLIDE DAMAGES AND MANAGEMENTBUDGET IN THE RA
Landslides in the RA are categorized into two types,
depending on who are affected by the landslides:• Community Landslide: Landslides that
predominantly and directly affect the daily-lives ofcommunities.
• Wide-area Infrastructure Landslide: Landslides
that predominately affect inter-community/ interregional infrastructure.
More than 80% of the total sum of direct losses is
Fig. 4 Active landslides block in Gosh Village on 20th ofFebruary 2005

generated by Community Landslides, while less than
20% is generated by Wide-area Infrastructure Landslides
as shown in Table 2.
Landslide management budgets from 2003 to 2005 hadbeen approximately AMD 90-150 million (USD 0.2-0.3
million), which is extremely low proportion (0.02%-0.05%)of the total state budget. The benefit gained by managing
a single landslide, is generally small and lower thanthe cost required for the mitigation measures which
may be the reason for small investment in the landslide
management.

4.C O N C E P T O F S T R U C T U A L M E S U E R S
FOR LANDSLIDE AND DEVELOPMENT OFCOMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE
Fig. 5 Muddy Community Road by Snow Melting Water in
Gosh Village on 20th of February 2005

Based on the assessment of landslide potential,
structure of community, state of infrastructureand economy of RA, following mitigation plans arerecommended. Pilot projects were also run to examine
the effectiveness of these recommended measures.
Single-purpose projects for landslide damage reduction
are generally not a priority due to the lack of cost/benefit
justification. Perhaps landslide management projects,
which would contribute to community infrastructuredevelopment, such as drainage construction forimproving muddy road condition to insure passablenessby vehicles, should be planed and prioritized. Suchprojects would generate higher benefits and assure theFig. 6 Landslide Area Density of Each Distance Zone from
Active Faults of 2504 identified landslides

economic validity of the investment.
Each community plans and implements its own
income-generating“community development project”,
with financial and a technological support from thegovernment. Communities should reinvest the earnings
to the project and also in subsequent“community
development projects”. Communities can then gradually
expand the project’s scale and its outcomes.
137Landslide Management by Community Based Approach in the Republic of Armenia

Table2  Damage
2 Damage due
TableduetotoLandslides
Landslides
SectorBuildings
Transport
Water, energy, andcommunication
Agriculture
Total

Existing Damage at August 2004 (USD million)
Community management/ private

Private company management

Direct
8.0
15.1
0.0

Indirect
1.1
1.0
0.0

Total
9.1
16.1
0.0

Direct0.0
0.0
2.2

Indirect
0.0
0.0
0.1

Total
0.0
0.0
2.3

Direct0.0
3.5
2.1

Indirect
0.0
1.4
0.1

Total
0.0
4.9
2.2

Direct
8.0
18.6
4.3

Indirect
1.1
2.4
0.2

Total
9.1
21.0
4.5

12.2
35.3

0.0
2.1

12.2
37.4

0.0
2.2

0.0
0.1

0.0
2.3

0.0
5.6

0.0
1.5

0.0
7.1

12.2
43.1

0.0
3.7

12.2
46.8

Potential Damage (USD million)

Private company management

Community management/ private

Buildings
Transport
Water, energy, andcommunication
Agriculture
Total

Total

Government organization
management

Total

Government organization
management

Direct
30.9
13.4
0.0

Indirect
2.4
1.3
0.0

Total
33.3
14.7
0.0

Direct0.0
0.0
1.1

Indirect
0.0
0.0
0.0

Total
0.0
0.0
1.1

Direct0.0
5.7
1.5

Indirect
0.0
1.6
0.1

Total
0.0
7.3
1.6

Direct
30.9
19.1
2.6

Indirect
2.4
2.9
0.1

Total
33.3
22.0
2.7

1.0
45.3

0.0
3.7

1.0
49.0

0.0
1.1

0.0
0.0

0.0
1.1

0.0
7.2

0.0
1.7

0.0
8.9

1.0
53.6

0.0
5.4

1.0
59.0

Note᧶ The management division is judged in the outline according its sector for management and scale.

The purposes of the projects (effectiveness of projects
upon completion) are as follows:managing those risks.
• Inhabitants can check and maintain community• Reduction in casualty and damage

infrastructure such as water supply and drainage• Development of community infrastructure forfacilities, on a daily basis after they receive

improvement on the daily-lives and industrial

technical guidance from the specialist. They can also

development.

attend to daily landslide monitoring. Performance• Increase of inhabitant’s incomes and expansion ofcommunity budget

5.CONCEPT OF COMMUNITY BASED APPROACH(CBA) FOR LANDSLIDE MANAGEMENTof these tasks by residents will increases efficiency
and decreases the cost.

6.C O N C E P T O F C R I S I S M A N A G E E N T F O R
LANDSLIDE HAZARD

The State (managing authorities) is responsible forCommunity public offices organize the landslide

nationwide landslide management and for providing

monitoring teams for early stage detection of any

financial and a technological support to community.

disaster signs. Heads of communities warn inhabitants

Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD) accumulates

and recommend the evacuation of concerned inhabitants

information and technologies, and disseminates thedepending on the“index value (threshold)”for landslide

information and knowledge to all organizations andmonitoring, including precipitation levels, and early signs

personnel concerned with the landslides.

of landslides, etc. When a disaster occurs, operations to

Wi t h v e r y l i m i t e d f i n a n c e s , c o m m u n i t i e s c a nensure the safety of residents and/or rescue of victims

implement projects using the Community Basedare conducted under the supervision of the head of theApproach (CBA: planning by communities andcommunity, with support from the Armenian Rescue

implementation by inhabitants’participation). The

Service (ARS), Regional Government Administration

merits of CBA are the following:(Marz) and local inhabitants.

• Inhabitants have much knowledge about thelandslide and damage causing by it (risks).
• Inhabitants are the ones who know what resources
are available in the community.
• To plan for landslide management and community
infrastructure development, it is necessary forinhabitants, communities, to formulate ideas for
138

MoUD and ARS will provide the technical support
for the setting of the“index value (threshold)”forlandslide movement, precipitation, and other signs forearly warning, recommendation of site evacuation, andlimitation on the use of facilities.

こうえいフォーラム第 16 号 / 2007.12

Plans for“landslide mitigation works which contribute

7.OUTLINE OF PILOT PROJECTS
Three Pilot Projects were conducted from May to
December 2005 in Gosh Village, Martuni Village andKapan City supported by the JICA Study Team.

to community infrastructure development”formulated
from the Pilot Projects of Gosh and Martuni Villages,
were assessed as economically feasible. The Pilot Projectin Kapan involving hazard recovery works (opening

The purpose of this pilot projects was to testof 2-lanes of Harutyunyan Street) was economicallyand confirm the effectiveness of the‘Community

beneficial in keeping regional traffic safe, including theBased Approach (CBA)’. Pilot projects have become

flow of bulky international cargo, which is the major

multipurpose projects, which contribute to community

means of trade across the Iranian border. The projects

infrastructure development. The participation ofare highly recommended for implementation.

inhabitants reduces construction costs, resulting

The Study Team together with communities in the area

in possible transformation of the pilot projects into

undertook landslide monitoring. Monitoring technologies

economically feasible projects.

were transferred to the communities and monitoring‘The landslide management and community

systems were established and put into the operation.

infrastructure development’and‘the community
development concept plan for acquisition of project
resources’were formulated by the working commissions
in the communities.
Parts of plans, including community road drainage
works, landslide monitoring and an early warning
system, were started through the participation of the

8.SIMPLE LANDSLIDE MANAGEMENT PLAN OFGOSH VILLAGE PILOT PROJECT
Plan of landslide management and community
infrastructure development of Gosh Village is shown in
Table 3.

local inhabitants.
Stakeholder meetings (advisory committees) werechaired and held by the MoUD and technical support
such as conduction of environmental assessment wasprovided through these committees.
Table 3  Plane of Gosh Village
Table 3 Plane of Gosh Village

Item

Feature of landslide,risk resource
assessment

Landslide Management
andCommunity
Infrastructure
Development

Executed Activities

Outline-It is 1000m wide, 500m long, and is divided into 15 sub-blocks. Risk objects are houses and community
roads. The roads across H block which is important for access to pasture and tourism.
- H block (100m long, 50m width) is active. During Jan-Sep 2005 (before drainage works), landslide
movement was approximately 10mm/day. In snow melting season, Mar 2005, the movement was
75mm/day. In winter, inhabitants were watering using domestic water to prevent frozen of water systems.
This aggravated the landslide activity. H block damaged 4 houses and the important community road.
- C block and J block are also active (1mm/day to 10mm/day movement), other blocks are not active (lessthan 1mm/day movement).
- Resources are itemized (farmland, sand and rock mines, and lake and monastery for tourism).
- As project resource acquisition, tourism development (tourist home, eco tourism, agriculture andstockbreeding development ( juice, meat, dairy processing) were planned.
- Execution system (landslide monitoring team, working commission, and community staff) was
formulated.
- Drainage works against assumed main causes (precipitation, thawed water, watering) was planned. It will
be installed as community road drainage, will prevent the road becoming muddy, and ensure running ofvehicles all year. (This pilot project and forward plan: 770m length open ditch with conduit, 160m longconduit, 1,480m long open ditch, 570m long horizontal drainage boring, 1,830m long road stone pavement)- In Sep-Dec 2005, 470m long open ditch with conduit, 160 meter long conduit, 400 meter long horizontal
drainage works were installed at H block. Activity of H block is reduced. Boring and material procurement
were input by Japan with local contractor. Community input is general workers (Japan assisted about 1/3-ofmarket price AMD1200 =USD 2.6 /day as reward), and supplemental material᧤sand etc.᧥

139

Landslide Management by Community Based Approach in the Republic of Armenia

9.ECONOMIC EVALUATION ON COMMUNITYBASED LANDSLIDE MANAGEMENT PROJECTS
Estimated benefits of the three pilot projects are
summarized in Table 4.

conducted in three sites using a questionnaire asking
WTP for the projects, which potentially represents the
project worth for the residents. The result of WTP ineach site is outlined in Table 5.
The CVM result is an estimation of monetary value

Table 4 Estimated Benefits in Pilot Projects

Table 4 Estimated Benefits in Pilot Projects
Item
Kapan
Gosh
Martuni
DirectDamages

AMD 0
USD 0

AMD
235,905,000
USD 519,000

IndirectDamages

AMD 3,300,000
USD 7,300

AMD 41,155,000
USD 91,000

WTP1 )of the
Whole
Community
InhabitantsAMD
14,411,000
USD 32,000

Total
Ratio of
WTP toDirectDamage(percentage)AMD
482,506,000
USD
1,062,000
AMD
61,613,000
USD 136,000

AMD 2,375,000
USD 5,000

AMD
1,463,000
USD 3,000

AMD
17,711,000
USD 39,000AMD279,435,000
USD 415,000

AMD545,582,000
USD
1,200,000

-

1.2㧑

1.1䋦

WTP (Willingness(Willingness to pay)pay) isis calculated
calculated by
1)1) WTP
by CVM
CVM (Contingent(Contingent
Valuation Method)“WTP (Willingness to pay) of the whole community
inhabitants”in Table 4 was calculated by a simplified

of regional economic effect taking into consideration
upgrading of the land use, improving regional roads,
expected budget saving for villages, and incorporatinglandslide management into multipurpose programs ofregional development. Therefore, willingness to pay
includes the benefits of the project.
Tableof thethe Pilot
Pilot Project
ProjectSites
Sites
Table5 5Result
Result ofof CVM
CVMin
inEachEach of
Item

AnnualIncome/Household
Willingness to
Pay/Household(Weighted
Average)
Percentage ofAnnual Income toWillingness to
Pay
Whole
City/Village

CVM (Contingent Valuation Method ). This survey wasFig. 7  Landslide Sub-blocks in Gosh Village
140

Kapan

AMD
882,000
USD 1,940

Gosh

Martuni

AMD 582,000
USD 1,280

AMD 576,000
USD 1,267

AMD1,550
USD 3

AMD5,951
USD 13

AMD8,083
US 18

0.2%

1.0%

1.4%

AMD
14,411,110
USD
31,704

AMD2,374,504
USD 5,223

AMD1,462,937
USD 3,218こうえいフォーラム第 16 号 / 2007.12

Costs of the implementation of engineering

10. CONCLUSION

countermeasures are estimated based on the basic
design prepared by the communities and unit costs per
construction work obtained under the pilot projects in
the respective sites, are shown in Table 6. Engineeringcountermeasures are planned with inhabitants’participation. Therefore costs are cheaper thancontractor’s estimates.

Item

Const
ructio
n
Costs

Kapan

Gosh

Martuni

AMD115,579,00
0
USD 254,274

AMD628,796,00
0
USD 1,383,351

cost-benefit analysis was carried out and the results arepresented Table 7.

state budget and the small benefit generated by existing
projects that aim solely at landslide mitigation.
The pilot projects became economically feasible bycommunity infrastructure development. Costs were also
reduced through the participation of local inhabitants inproject implementation. Residents’awareness of selfhelp and mutual aid were markedly improved alongwith the improvement of community infrastructure andsettlement of landslide activities.
‘Community Based Approach (CBA)’has been provenas useful for effective project formulation. While theProjects
Table
7 Results of Economic Evaluation for Three Pilot Project
Item
Kapan
Gosh
MartuniNetlack of public funds due to severe constraints in thethem into multipurpose projects which contribute toWith the above project benefits (quantified) and costs,

Economic
Internal
Rateof
Return (%)

undertaking landslide mitigation projects has been the

expanding the benefit streams and by transforming

Table
Cost
Table6  Construction
6 Construction Cost

AMD 98,293,000
USD 216,245

One of the reasons which hindered the RA from

N/A

12%
AMD

Present

AMD10%

AMD 7,383,000

62,005,000
15,766,000
USD 16,243
Value
USD 136,411
USD 34,685
AtKapan,
Kapan,PlanPlanisissecuring
securing2 2
lane
traffic
Harutyunyan
StreetAt
lane
trafficof ofHarutyunyan
Street

The results for Gosh and Martuni show positive Net
Present Value (NPV) and higher Economic Internal Rateof Return (EIIR) than the discount rate of 10%. This
indicates that these projects are economically viable
for implementation. The earliest implementation will
be required to protect the village properties and avoid
the economic losses incurred by landslides. Although
the Pilot Project in Kapan shows a negative NPV, it
is extremely important for the Armenian economy tosecure regional safe traffic and moreover internationallarge cargoes, which are the key means of trade throughthe Iranian border. The project is highly worthy for
implementation with Plan II, which offers a much lessnegative NPV than Plan III.

initial investment requirements and specialists incommunities are still scarce, public participation andinputs in the technical and financial aspect are needed
to insure the sustainability of the pilot projects andimplementation of new projects.
Therefore not only CBA is important but also the
responsibility of State (management authorities) tonationwide landslide management and the provision oftechnical/ financial assistance to implementation bodies
of landslide management (communities and management
organization for wide area infrastructure).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT：The author wishes to thankall related parties of Japan International Cooperation
Agency for their advice for the Study. Acknowledgment
is also duly given to members and assistants of thestudy team on the landslide disaster management in
the Republic of Armenia, and many Armenian concernedorganizations and personnel.
REFERENCES
1)

Japan International Cooperation Agency, Final report of

the Study on Landslide Disaster Management in the
Republic of Armenia, pp.1-165, 2006.

141