Summary of the Terminal Evaluation
I. Outline of the ProjectCountry: People's Republic of China

Project title: Japan China Forest Tree
Breeding Science and Technology Center
Project
Cooperation scheme: Technical Cooperation

Issue/Sector: Natural Environment
Conservation - Forest Resource
Management/Conservation
Division in charge: Forestry and Nature
Conservation Division I, Global
Environment Department(R/D): 18/10/2001-17/10/2006
Period of
Cooperation

1-1

Total cost (at the time of evaluation):
827 million

Partner Country’s Implementing
Organization: State Forestry Administration;
Comprehensive Station of State-Owned Forest
Farms and Forest Tree Breeding Projects of theState Forestry Administration; Hubei Province
Forest Tree Breeding Center; Anhui Province
Resistance Breeding Center of Pine Wood
Nematode; Hubei Province Forestry
Administration; Anhui Province Forestry
Department
Supporting Organization in Japan:
Forest Tree Breeding Center; Ministry ofAgriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries; Forestry
Agency; Forestry and Forest Products ResearchInstitute

Background of the Project

Forest coverage in China remained low. For example, it was 7.7% in 1949. Since thelate 1970s, however, afforestation has been promoted on a national scale: conservation ofnatural forests and enlargement of plantations have been implemented based on therevised forest law and the forest policies set after the 1998 floods. As a result, forest
coverage recovered to 14.8% in 1999. In order to obtain better afforestation results in alarge country with diversified environments, it is essential to conduct efficientafforestation by using seeds and saplings with traits and functions suitable for the soil
and meteorological conditions of each forest, as well as preserving genetic resources ofthe forest.
Under such circumstances, for the purpose of improving the forest environment insouthern China by preserving genes and developing varieties suitable to conserve theecological environment of the region, the Chinese government requested the Japanese
Government in September 1999 to give technical cooperation to further develop
technologies to create new varieties and preserve forest genes and to promote suchtechnologies in the provinces of southern China, based on the achievements andexperience in the “Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Plan” which had been
implemented from January 1996 to January 2001 with the cooperation of JICA. After
that, both sides signed an R/D of technical cooperation, and five-year cooperation wasstarted in October 17, 2001. Now that there is only six months remaining till the end of
the project, a terminal evaluation survey is being conducted.

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1-2

Project Overview(1)

Overall Goal
Establish a foundation for forest tree breeding operations in provinces of southern
China through the dissemination of project results.

(2)

Project Purpose
The Japan-China Cooperative Forest Tree Breeding Technology Center obtains
technical capabilities needed for sustainable forest tree breeding operations.

(3)

Outputs
1) Development of breeding technologies concerning recurrent selection2) Development of breeding technologies to enhance disease/pest resistance3) Development of breeding technologies concerning introduction of new varieties
4) Development of technologies to preserve genetic resources5) Development of technologies to produce improved nurseries
6) Transfer of forest tree breeding technologies to the technical staff of eachsouthern province through training programs(4)

Inputs (at the time of evaluation)
Japanese side:
Long-term Expert
11 people in total
Short-term Expert
25 people in total
Trainees received
29 people in total
Equipment
107 million yen in total
Local cost
137 million yen
Chinese side
Counterpart
18 people (at the time of terminal evaluation)
Local cost
17 million Yuan in total (about 250 million yen)
Land and Facilities
Project office and laboratories, nursery gardens,
experimental forests, seed orchards, resource
conservation forests

II. Evaluation Team
Members ofTeam Leader/Supervisor:
Evaluation Team
Yukihide Katsuta
Chief of Division I, Global Environment
Department, Japan International
Cooperation Agency
Genetic Resources:
Hiroshi Nakata
Overseas Cooperation Manager of Overseas
Cooperation Department, Forest Tree
Breeding Center
Breeding:
Masatoshi Ubukata Preservation Evaluation Manager ofGenetic Resources Department, Forest Tree
Breeding Center
Cooperation Planning:
Yoshiyuki Miyake
Forestry and Nature Conservation Team I,
Group I, Global Environment Department,
Japan International Cooperation Agencyii

Period of
Evaluation

Person in Charge of Evaluation and Analysis:
Isao DojunManager of Agricultural Development
Group, Overseas Project Department, Chuo
Kaihatsu Corporation
9/4/2006-29/4/2006
Type of Evaluation: Terminal

III. Results of Evaluation
3-1 Confirmation of Results(1)

Achievement of the Project Purpose
The counterparts have surely improved their knowledge, experience, and technicalcapabilities concerning forest tree breeding and have obtained abilities to proceedwith research tasks in their respective assigned areas.
In addition,
implementation of the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme wasdetermined after Hubei Province Forestry Administration approved the plan. The
counterparts have also obtained skills sufficient enough to set up and implement
training programs and to serve as a lecturer. Considering that they have obtained
technical capabilities that are the targets of this project and are addressing
remaining tasks such as the development of manuals toward the end of the project,
it is expected that the project purpose will be achieved by the end of the project.

(2)

Achievement of the Outputs
Some of the following six outputs have already been achieved, while others are
expected to be achieved by the end of the project. With respect to some outputs,
the levels of achievement are higher than expected. Generally speaking, the level of achievement is considered to be high.
 Development of breeding technologies concerning recurrent selection,
 Development of breeding technologies to enhance disease/pest resistance,
 Development of breeding technologies concerning introduction of new varieties,
 Development of technologies to preserve genetic resources, Development of technologies to produce improved nurseries, Transfer of forest tree breeding technologies to the technical staff of eachsouthern province through training programs.
3-2

Summary of Evaluation Results(1)

Relevance: High
“Seed Law of the People's Republic of China” declares that the country will support
the selection and promotion of superior forest tree varieties. Also, the State
Forestry Administration puts greater emphasis on the improvement of afforestation
quality in the 11th five-year plan (2006-2010) for the forestry sector, which is now
being developed, and plans to create a national forest tree breeding plan.
Therefore, the project is highly consistent with China’s national policies. Further,because one of the prioritized areas in Japan’s economic cooperation philosophy is“cooperation to tackle global issues including environmental problems,” the projectis also highly consistent with Japanese aid policies.

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In Hubei and other southern provinces, afforestation operations concerning thenation’s six prioritized forestry projects are now underway, while the emphasis isbeing shifted from the quantity of afforestation and nurseries to the quality ofthem. This means that there is a greater demand than ever for forest tree
breeding to develop superior nurseries. The approach of the project, which was todivide the six tasks into smaller tasks, to make activity plans for respective tasks,
and to implement the plans, is said to be appropriate as a means to achieve theproject purpose.
(2)

Effectiveness: HighThrough the implementation of the project, the levels of the knowledge, experienceand technical capabilities of each counterpart have surely been improved withrespect to each individual technique of forest tree breeding. In addition, the Hubei
Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme was made, which was then approved by
Hubei Province Forestry Administration toward its implementation. Thus, it wasdetermined that forest tree breeding operations would be promoted in Hubei
Province. As for training for persons in charge of breeding operations andmid-level technicians in southern provinces, a total of 576 people, which exceeded
the target number of 510, participated in 12 training sessions.
In the training, the number of counterparts who served as lecturers has increased
since the 9th session. They have acquired sufficient skills to be a lecturer andobtained the know-how on a series of administrative operations including
preparation, implementation, and evaluation of training programs.
The
achievement levels of the outputs are high, and it is expected that the project
purpose will be surely achieved by the end of the project.

(3)

Efficiency: HighThe quantity and quality of the inputs from both Japan and China, as well as theirtiming, were generally appropriate. There were, however, minor problems as
described below, though they did not have great impacts on the efficiency of the
project.
 As Japanese proficiency of more than half of the counterparts was of a high level,
Japanese experts and the counterparts could communicate directly. However itis thought that, if interpreters had been deployed in both Hubei and Anhui
Provinces, more efficient communication would be possible.
 Insufficiencies concerning facilities are as follows:  In Anhui Province the areaof the nursery garden is small.  In Hubei Province, as the nursery garden andthe plantation where plants for breeding are grown are 70 km away from theForest Tree Breeding Center, the staff suffered some inconveniences when
conducting management or when frequent observation was needed.
 The project budget expenditures of the Chinese side were mostly appropriate.
There was a plan to gradually increase the percentage of the training program
costs paid by the Chinese side, and the percentage was increased mostly
according to the plan until the third year. Since the fourth year, however, thepercentage has been below the targets set under the plan, though the input fromthe Chinese side has increased.

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(4)

Impact: Many positive impacts have been made.
1) Prospect for the achievement of the overall goal: “Establish the foundation forforest tree breeding operations in provinces of southern China through thedissemination of the project results”
The State Forestry Administration has an idea of establishing a forest tree
breeding center in each region and is trying to promote a national forest tree
breeding project based on the experience at the Hubei Province Forest Tree
Breeding Center. They do not have a specific plan yet, as it will be made by theend of 2006, but it is thought that at least the development of infrastructure
will be implemented in a five-year period between 2006 and 2010. In parallelwith the development of infrastructure, they need to cultivate human resources.
Therefore, in order to achieve the overall goal, the State Forestry
Administration is required to play a leading role not only in developing
infrastructure but also in utilizing technologies, human resources, and training
know-how concerning forest tree breeding possessed by the Hubei Province
Forest Tree Breeding Center and the Anhui Province Resistance Breeding
Center of Pine Wood Nematode. Also, as it was decided that the definition of
the overall goal was not necessarily clear, the overall goal is revised and a supergoal is additionally set.
2) Other impacts
Many positive impacts have been made by the implementation of the project.
Major impacts are as follows. No negative impacts are expected at the
moment. .
1) Afforestation using superior poplar varieties
2) Implementation of training concerning tissue culture technology(instruction on the building of laboratories for tissue culture, training foruniversity students)
3) PC training for the staff of the Hubei Province Forestry Administration
4) Presentation of papers on the study results5) Winning of prizes such as Hubei Province Prize for Advancements inScience and Technology
6) Participation in the development of the project plan for Hubei Province’s
base for breeding superior varieties of forest trees7) Utilization of the results of the development of breeding technologies toenhance resistance to pine wood nematode
8) Joint hosting of a workshop for people involved in the JBIC Financing
Project(5)

Sustainability
1) Policy
 Policies at the government level
The State Forestry Administration has shifted their emphasis onafforestation from quantity to quality. From this point of view, they give
more priority to forest tree breeding to develop superior nurseries. As theyhighly appreciate the results of the project, they also plan to promote forest
tree breeding operations throughout the country. Further, they have a plan
to establish and develop bases for forest tree breeding operations across thecountry in the future, and will make investments for this plan.

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 Policies concerning forestry in Hubei Province
The 11th five-year forestry plan (2006-2010) of Hubei Province states that theprovince will construct the bases for forest tree breeding and the productionof superior nurseries, which will “focus on the implementation of basic
operations, including surveys on genetic resources of forest trees, selective
breeding, examination of nurseries’ quality and supervision over theenforcement of policies and laws.”
The Hubei Province Forestry Administration approved the “Hubei Province
Forest Tree Breeding Plan” proposed by the Comprehensive Station for
Forest Tree Nursery Management of the Administration, and gave
instructions to advance the process to implement the plan (April 2006).
Therefore, it can be said that the government policy will secure theimplementation of the “Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme” thathas been developed by this project.
 Policies concerning forestry in Anhui Province
The 11th five-year forestry development plan (2006-2010) of Anhui Province
states a policy of thoroughly improving the province’s level of raising superiorvarieties by lifting the utilization rate of superior varieties of major tree
species in afforestation to 80% from the current 65% and by making drastic
progress in fields such as breeding to enhance resistance to pine woodnematode. The Anhui Province Forestry Department has a plan to continue
the research studies that have been conducted in this project and has
repeatedly demonstrated its policies on the securing of organizations, humanresources, and funds necessary for the plan. As Anhui Province gives very
high priority to breeding to enhance resistance to pine wood nematode, it canbe decided that political support is secured.
Considering the above-mentioned points, it can be concluded that politicalsustainability is secured.
2) Organization:
Both the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Center and the Anhui Province
Resistance Breeding Center of Pine Wood Nematode were established for the
implementation of this project. The Hubei Province Forestry Administrationand the Anhui Province Forestry Department announced that they will continue
running the current organizations even after the project. When discussing theadministration/management ability of an organization, its stability of theorganization and that of its personnel distribution are the essential
requirements.
Hubei Province will also promote its forest tree breeding operations
systematically based on the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme.
Unlike the previous approach of separately addressing respective researchtasks, the staff will need to have abilities and qualities to take an overall view
when running operations (administration/management ability).
Although the counterparts have sufficient skills to serve as a training lecturer
and to implement operations, there is concern about whether the Chinese side
will be able to continue implementing similar training programs by themselves
even after the termination of JICA’s cooperation. This is because a workshop forthe staffs of other provinces must be held and arranged by the State Forestry
Administration, including setting of policies and securing of budgets concerning
its implementation.

vi3) Finance:
Generally, the Chinese side has prepared appropriate budgets for this project.
Besides, the Hubei Province Forestry Administration and Anhui Province
Forestry Department announced that they would continue preparing budgets
for forest tree breeding operations in the future. In particular, because the
Hubei Province Forestry Administration approved the “Hubei Province Forest
Tree Breeding Scheme,” it is expected that budgets necessary for the
implementation of the scheme will be secured. Therefore, it is highly probablethat budgets concerning forest tree breeding will also be secured in the future inboth Hubei and Anhui Provinces. In this project, however, the budget for the
training program prepared by the Chinese side was not sufficient. Therefore,
the Chinese side is required to secure the budgets that will be needed in the
future.
4) Technology:
Each counterpart has great ability in his/her particular technical field. Theirabilities in research and technology and abilities to transfer technology to othertechnicians have achieved a sustainable level. In addition, as many of thecounterparts have served as lecturers in the training program, they haveobtained sufficient skills as a lecturer. They also have know-how to implement
training programs and have technological abilities to transfer and disseminate
in southern provinces through training programs. However, they need tofurther enhance their abilities to address research issues and to formulate andimplement research plans independently in consideration of the promotion ofboth breeding operations throughout Hubei Province and the breeding
operations to enhance resistance to pine wood nematode in Anhui Province.
3-3

Factors that promoted realization of effects(1)

Factors concerning to Planning
Nothing in particular(2)

Factors concerning to the Implementation Process
 “Technological development/training planning card (2001.10-2006.10)” wascreated in an early stage of this project. The card shows activities stipulated in
the PDM, which are further divided into smaller items. It also shows the
distribution of personnel, technologies to be transferred, and schedules for themwith respect to each item. Annual plans were made and activities wereconducted according to the card, which is considered to be one of the factors of
the significant achievements of this project.
 The staff of the Hubei Province Forestry Administration participated in theprocess of developing the “Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme” andreceived training in Japan, which made them recognize the importance of forest
tree breeding and increase their awareness of this project. This also led theprovince to put greater importance on forest tree breeding, which affected theirforestry policies and resulted in the approval of the forest tree breeding scheme.
Similarly, the staff of the forestry department of Anhui Province shares theawareness of the importance of forest tree breeding. Their participation in the
training in Japan is one of the factors of this awareness, which resulted in
Anhui Province’s greater emphasis on forest tree breeding and breeding toenhance resistance to pine wood nematode in their forestry policies.

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3-4

Factors that impeded realization of effects(1)

Factors concerning to Planning
The Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme, which was approved by theforestry administration of the province, will be implemented in the future. On thisoccasion, the staff is required to utilize the research results obtained in this projectin a meaningful way to execute the planned operations. In this process, theyshould have the know-how to formulate, administrate and manage a project from amacroscopic standpoint. However, as fostering of staff with such know-how was
not included in the plan of this project, it is required to cultivate such staff in the
future.

(2)

Factors concerning to the Implementation Process
The PDM included inappropriate indexes and activities, but necessary changes
were not made before the terminal evaluation finally pointed out the problems.
Among them, the overall goal, its definition was not clear, is modified in thisterminal evaluation. Though the project has a monitoring system, it is consideredthat there is room for improvement in its operation. Also, JICA should provide
assistance and instructions as necessary so that long-term experts andcounterparts can monitor the project appropriately based on the PDM and PO.

3-5

Conclusion

The project is highly consistent with Chinese forestry policies, needs in the forestry
sectors of both Hubei and Anhui Provinces, and Japanese aid policies. There has been asteady increase in the level of forest tree breeding technology, and the counterparts haveacquired abilities as lecturers and the know-how to run training programs through theprovision of training for the staffs in charge of breeding operations in southern
provinces. Considering the achievements of the project including that the Hubei
Province Forestry Administration approved the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding
Scheme that has been developed with the support of the project, the effectiveness of the
project is also high. Inputs from both the Japanese and Chinese sides were mostly
appropriate. As for the implementation of activities, the project has promoted
technological development and research by setting goals and activity schedules forrespective tasks. This approach was effective in facilitating technological transfer,resulting in efficient implementation of activities. As the project has produced various
impacts, it can be decided that the project’s political sustainability is high. It isconsidered that further improvements in matters concerning organizational structures,finance, and technology will strengthen the sustainability of the project.
3-6

Recommendations (Specific measures, proposals and advice concerning the project)

3-6-1
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

Recommended activities to be implemented for the rest of the project period

Complete remaining tasks (activities)
Summarize the results of technological transfer
Establish a system to implement the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme
Establish a system to implement training programs in southern provinces after thetermination of the project
Determine a future plan for the Japan-China Cooperative Forest Tree Breeding
Technology Center

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(6)

Revise the overall goal of the project and set a super goal
Overall Goal: “Both Hubei and Anhui Provinces implement systematic andwell-planned forest tree breeding operations, while a plurality ofsouthern provinces work on the formulation of forest tree breeding
schemes.”
Super Goal:“Provinces of southern China complete the formulation of forest tree
breeding schemes and promote operations.”(Setting of the overall goal and the super goal was approved by thejoint coordination committee.)

3-6-2
(1)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(6)
3-7

Recommended activities to be implemented after the termination of the projectContinue activities for technological development
Implementation of the Hubei Province Forest Tree Breeding Scheme(3)Expand breeding operations to enhance resistance to pine wood nematode in
Anhui Province
Expand forest tree breeding operations in southern provinces
Develop organizational structures to promote breeding operations
Support the Chinese side after the termination of the project
Lessons Learned (Instructions that were drawn on from the project and would
apply to the processes of discovery, formation, implementation, andadministration/management of similar projects)

Importance of thorough implementation of project management using PDM and PO wasreconfirmed. Some activities included in the plan were not implemented in thisproject. In some cases it was not clear whether the plan was modified, and in othercases reasons for modification were unknown. In addition, although some of indexes in
the PDM and descriptions in the PO were clearly inappropriate, procedures tochange/modify them were not taken in some of these cases. JICA should provide
instructions on appropriate operation methods of PDM and PO for Japanese experts
and counterpart organizations.

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