(On-site Evaluation: June 2006)
Ex-Post Monitoring for Completed ODA Loan Projects

External Evaluator: Atsushi Tokura (IC Net, Ltd.)
Project Name: Myanmar “Gas Turbine Power Station Project (Yangon)” (L/A No. B-P-42)[Loan Outline]
Loan Amount/Disbursement Amount: 5,000 million yen/4,926 million yen
Loan Agreement: May 1986
Loan Completion: May1991
Ex-Post Evaluation: FY1996
Executing Agency: Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE)
Project Objective
Project Objective: By constructing a gas turbine power station with a capacity of approx. 60MW in the Thaketa district of Yangon (formerlyRangoon), this project aims to accommodate rapidly rising power demand and the need for power supply stability in that city, and thereby
contribute to economic development in Myanmar.
Consultant: Electric Power Development International (Japan)
Contractor: Marubeni Corporation (Japan)[Result Outline]
Item
At time of Ex-post evaluation
At time of Ex-post evaluation
Effectiveness/Impact
Effectiveness
Following the ex-post evaluation, power generation
has generally been maintained at a level thatexceeds targets. Power supply self-sufficiency rate
for the target region (including the present power
plant, the region has four stations in total) generallysurpassed 100%, and efficiency was high. However,there is still room for improvement in terms of theamount of power generated relative to capacity
factor (supply capacity).
(1) Capacity utilization rate
Year
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
%
6.6
11.9
40.1
59.5
* The figure for 94/95 are for up to January 1995.
(Source: Responses to a questionnaire)

94/95*
79.8(1) Capacity utilization rate
-A capacity utilization rate is being maintained around 95%
following the ex-post evaluation. It can be seen that thecapacity utilization has been propelled as more than planned,by tight demand and supply conditions.
Year
96/97
97/98
98/99％
99.5
99.57
95.67
Year
01/02
02/03
03/04
％
96.54
96.51
97.02
(Source: Responses to a questionnaire)(2) Power generation(Initial target: 350GWh/year)
Year
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
GWh
33.27
59.28
200.43297.09* The figures for 94/95 are up to January 1995.
(Source: Responses to a questionnaire)

94/95*
334.04

99/00
97.87
04/05
98.9

00/01
94.3
05/06
N/A

(2) Power generation-Except for 2002-03 and 2005-06, the initial target of350GWh/yr is being exceeded. The lower power generation
figures in 2001-02 and 2002-03 can be attributed to ashortage in the gas supply, resulting in a drop in powergenerated. The low power generation figure for 2005-06 isdue to the fact that large-scale maintenance was undertaken
at all the power generators (see below).
Year
96/97
97/98
98/99
GWh
352.5
419.9
399.7
Year
01/02
02/03
03/04
GWh
350.9
338.7
370.9
(Source: Responses to a questionnaire

99/00
400.9
04/05
363.9

00/01
394.905/06
290.0

2005/06 figures derive from MEPE data)- Units suspension hours, hours of operation, and rate ofoperating hours to capacity are as shown below. There are noproblems in terms of operating conditions.
Year
Scheduledsuspension
hours
Unscheduledsuspension
hours
Total
suspension
hours
Max. hoursof operation
annually
Rate ofoperating
hours tocapacity*(%)
Year
Scheduledsuspension
hours
Unscheduledsuspension

96/97
1,646

97/98
700

98/99
4,123

99/00
4100/01
703

18

21

12

104

14

1,664

721

4,135

145

717

26,28026,28026,28026,28026,280

93.7

97.3

84.3

99.4

97.3

01/02
842

02/03
1,662

03/04
370

04/05
343

05/06
N/A

125

212

31

499

N/A

hours
Total
967
1,847
401
842
N/A
suspension
hours
Max. hours
26,28026,28026,28026,280N/Aof operation
annually
Rate of
96.3
92.9
98.5
98.1
operatinghours toN/A
capacity*(%)*Rate of operating hours to capacity= annual hours of operation/max.
possible hours of operation (i.e., 24 h x 365)
(Source: Responses to a questionnaire)(3) Meeting the demand for power(3) Meeting the demand for power
The power station in the project in question accounts for -The power station in the current project now accounts for
7.6% of Myanmar’s facility capacity, and 9.7% of 5.75% of Myanmar’s total annual power generation. The
annual power generation.
figures may be broken down as 4.85% generated by gas
turbines and 0.9% generated by combined cycle operation.
Because the amount generated by steam generation has
increased, the power generation from this power station has
fallen slightly as a percentage of Myanmar’s total power
generation relative to the time of the ex-post evaluation.
-As shown in the table below, the power demand (powerconsumed) across the whole of Myanmar is at present lessthan supply. It was not possible at the time of this evaluation
to obtain data on demand for the period following 2004, butdemand is assumed to have increased following 2003, andthe difference between average power generation andconsumption is becoming insignificant. Average power
generation fell in 1998-99 because of a prolonged drought
and an accompanying fall in steam power generation. Thefall in 2001-02 was attributable to an insufficient gas supply
and a resulting fall in gas turbine power generation.
Unit: MWYear
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01
Max. demand (A)
277.8
305.5
310.1
332.2
373.1
Facility capacity (B) 1033.0 1036.0 1031.0 1171.0 1171.0
Power supply
492.2
530.6
447.9
502.3
559.1
capacity (C)Supply-demand gap(B)-(A)
755.2
730.5
720.9
838.8
797.9
(C)-(A)
214.4
225.1
137.8
170.1
186
Year01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Max. demand (A)
347.1
535.5
NANANAFacility capacity (B) 1160.0 1190.0 1256.4 1370.1 1491.4
Power supplied (C)
506.1
544.1
573.7
625.6
681.0
Supply-demand gap(B)-(A)
812.9
654.5
NANANA(C)-(A)
159
8.6
NANA
NA
(Source: Maximum demand and facility capacity were extracted fromthe Statistical Yearbook 2003. Power supplied came from MEPE data.)*Facility capacity for the period following 2004 was estimated fromaverage power generated, using the fact that for 2002-03 the ratio offacility capacity to power supply was 2.19. Average power generation in
MW was calculated from MWh across one year.

(4) Stabilization of the power supply-At present, the four power stations in Yangon City havesufficient facility capacity to cover power demand for thecity. The table below gives cumulative data for the fourpower stations.
Year
2001/02
Power demand
1357.1(GWh)
Facility capacity
4073.4(GWh)
Power supply
coverage rate
(power300.2
self-sufficiencyrate) (%)(Source: MEPE data)

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

1605.41774.51835.22075.24073.44073.44073.44073.4

253.7

229.6

222.0

196.3-On the other hand, if comparing power generation withdemand, in 2005-06 the power self-sufficiency rate fell
below 100%, meaning that the power stations within the citywere not sufficient to meet the demand for Yangon.
According to MEPE, in order to ensure that power
generation for each power station approaches the facility
capacity, it would be necessary to secure a sufficient gas
supply and conduct thorough maintenance.
-According to the draw below, power generation (GWh) of
Thaketa gas turbine power station accounts for around 15% in thetotal power generation of Yangon city, even in 2005/2006 when thelarge-scale maintenance was conducted and its power generation

decreased. Thus, the Thaketa gas turbine power station contributes on
the stabilization of power supply in Yangon city.
Year
2001/2002
2002/2003
2005/2006
Power demand
1357.11605.42075.2(GWh)
Power generated
1822.37
2098.03
1952.6(GWh)
Power supply
coverage rate
(power134.3
130.7
94.1
self-sufficiencyrate) (%)
Powergeneration(GWh) ofThaketa gas turbine
350.9
338.7
290.0
power station(*from (2))(Source: Data for 2001-02 and 2002-03 came from the Statistical
Yearbook 2003. Figures for 2005/2006 came from MEPE data.)-Yangon City electrification rate
Following 2001, the electrification rate has decreasedslightly. As mentioned above, there are three other powerstations besides the Thaketa gas turbine power station, but
the causal relationship between each power station and theelectrification rate is unclear.
2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

57.52%
57.34
57.08
56.98
56.87
(Source: YESB data. The number of households was estimated based on
population figures, setting the ratio of people to households at 4.84, andelectrification rates were derived based on this.)(5) Implementation of combined cycle operations
Two years following the completion of the project,plans were devised to expand facility capacity, improve
thermal efficiency, and implement combined cycleoperations.

(5) Implementation of combined cycle operations1
Combined cycle operation commenced in 1997. The installedcapacity was 35MW with three generators. According toplans, combined cycle operation would generate 28MW, but
as of June 2006, one generator only is producing only 7MW.
Gas turbine power generation has been too low on account ofa gas supply shortage, and it has not been possible to obtainenough steam needed for the combined cycle. Thermal
efficiency is 50%.

(6) Environment
SOx: None (because the station uses natural gas)
NOx: Approx. 60 ppm(6) Environment
Sox: None
NOx: None, during the period where combined cycle
operations are being employed. (*this description is being
reconfirmed now)
(7) Financial Internal Rate of Return14.27％

ImpactImpact(1) Economic impact- It is difficult to identify the project’s impact from the tablebelow. However, providing the underlying support for the1
The main advantages of this power generation method are its high thermal efficiency and low levels of circulating (cooling) water and thermal effluent. Using the method, steam power generation can beperformed using the waste heat from internal fuel combustion.

stabilization of the power supply in Yangon city, it isbelieved that this project makes a certain degree ofcontribution to the base for industrial and economic activity.
Table (Reference): Changes in Myanmar GDPYear
1996
GDP
4.956
Year
2001
GDP
7.736
(Source: IMF data)

1997
4.657
2002
8.727

1998
6.932
2003
8.559

(million dollars)
1999
2000
9.253
9.764
2004
2005
6.891
5.922

- Nearby to the Thaketa gas turbine power station, there is anindustrial park that was established in 1993; this is connectedto the fact that the stable power supply has provided an
incentive to factories to relocate there. In recent years,
however, power outages at the park have occurred on achronic basis.
Sustainability
Projectsustainability

Although there are concerns, including lack of spareparts and training, the operation and management
capacity and financial status of the executing agency
have not been an issue. This was also the case at thetime of the ex-post evaluation. The effect of theorganizational restructuring conducted in 2006
remains unclear. Although the gas fuel supply was notenough at the time of the ex-post monitoring, it ishereafter expected to become more stable due to theinstallation of a pipeline.

(1) Technical capacity
The executing agency has constructed and owns six gas
turbine power stations as of 1985, and in terms ofcapability there are no particular issues. Moreover,while the project was being conducted, a consultant wasproviding the executing agency with training.

(1) Technical capacity-The executing agency has been conducting power
generation projects using gas turbines for many years, andhas no special issues in terms of capability. Although
opportunities to receive training are few, there have been nodifficulties in the performance of day-to-day maintenance.

(2) Structure
There are no particular problems with respect to theexecuting agency’s organization. The Thaketa gas
turbine power station, which is responsible for
operation and maintenance, has 110 employees (Ofthose, 70 are in charge of operation and maintenance).

(2) Structure-In 2006, the Ministry of Electric Power was restructured by
dividing it into two ministries, the first primarily in charge ofhydroelectric power generation, and the second primarily incharge of all other types of power generation. The Myanmar
Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) belongs to the jurisdictionof the second ministry.
-The Thaketa gas turbine power station has a total of 119
employees. The breakdown of employee roles in operationand maintenance is as follows: 25 in charge of gas turbines,
25 in charge of steam turbine power generation, 12 in chargeof water treatment, 11 in charge of electrical maintenance, 19in charge of mechanical maintenance (these latter are broken
down into 12 for gas turbines and 7 for steam turbines).
-The Ministry of Electric Power has a personnel pool system
so that whenever new personnel are needed at any of thepower stations to make up a shortfall, they can be promptlyprovided.

(3) Financial status
The executing agency’s budget is included in thenational budget, and accordingly is treated as part of thegovernment accounting, rather than as an independententity. For that reason, although financial statements
have been put together independently, periodic losses
are automatically compensated for using government
expenditure allowances. On the other hand, periodic
profits are paid into the national treasury (See the tablebelow).

(3) Financial status-As of the time of the ex-post evaluation, losses werecompensated for through government expenditure
allowances, and profit was paid into the national treasury.
According to the profit and loss statements, for the past threeyears the station has enjoyed a profit.

Profit and loss statement (million kyat)

Profit and loss statements (kyat)

Fiscal year
Payment tonationaltreasury
Net profit orloss(governmentexpenditure)

1988
−

1989
84.9

1990
33.5

1991
−

▲40.7

00

▲32.7

Electric power development is a high priority inMyanmar. So long as financial allocations are secured
based on a national development plan, there should be
no problem with treating power development as a partof the government budget, as is the case at present. On
the other hand, there are also grounds for considering
granting financial independence to this sector, as doing
so is likely to contribute to operating efficiency andsecuring of investment capital.

Fiscal year
Profits

2003-04
1,075,685

2004-05
1,796,825

2005-06
233,600

Operation andmaintenance(Operation and maintenance)-No significant problems have arisen with respect tobreakdowns. In addition, more than three years’ worthof parts have been procured.

(Operation and maintenance)-Operation and maintenance is being conducted inaccordance with the manual. The machinery is inspected andcleaned daily. Lubricating oil is replenished and cleaningwater inspected and replenished on a weekly basis.
-During field inspections made in 1994, it was reported Large-scale maintenance was completed in January 2006,
that there were no problems with operation and and further large-scale maintenance is not expected to bemaintenance. As planned, all three generators were used needed for another five years.
as a base load. An operation and maintenance manual
has been established, and periodic inspections are also -Employee training was conducted at the time the power
being conducted in accordance with standards stations were constructed as well as in 1997, when combinedprescribed by the manufacturer.
cycle operations were implemented. Since then, training has
not been conducted due to budget shortfalls; however, in-Several years following the start of operations, because 2006 six engineers were given training in Dubai. However,there was a shortage in the natural gas fuel supply, the as next year’s budget has not yet been decided, improving theamount of power generated fell far short of initial target technical expertise of young engineers could be an issue.
figures. At the time of the evaluation, the requisite
natural gas supply had been secured.
-There are no spare parts. Moreover, because the facilities areold, obtaining spare parts itself is difficult.
-Regarding the gas supply, currently 5 million metricstandard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) of gas is being
supplied from an inland gas oil field, and 7 MMSCFD of gas
is being supplied from a coastal gas oil field. (*thisdescription is being reconfirmed now) According to theMyanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise, starting in August 2006
gas will flow through a pipeline from Kanbauk, a coastal gas
oil field. The field is expected to provide a stable supply of
22.5 MMSCFD.

Lessons Learned,Recommendations,
Information
Resources andMonitoring Methods(1) Follow up on
lessons learned andrecommendations
madeinex-postevaluation report andas part of evaluations
made following thepost-post evaluation(2) Proposals forsecuring
sustainability
andinstructions given attime of follow-up
monitoring

To maintain sustainability, improving the technicaltraining of the power station staff is indispensable.
To that end, it is worth considering matter such astechnical support.
(1) Because there were shortages in the supply ofnatural gas, which was expected to serve as the fuelsource, the power station has not operated at a
sufficiently high level for several years following thestart of operations. At the time of the appraisal,
information should have been gathered directly from thenatural gas supplier, while taking measures(conditioning) to ensure that natural gas is supplied in a
reliable manner.

(1) At the time of follow-up monitoring, power station
operations are still being hindered by a shortage in the gas
supply. However, this problem is expected to be resolved
through the commencement of operations of a gas pipeline
scheduled for December 2006.

(2) The technical capabilities of the power station staff need
to be improved. Training to that end is indispensable. Since
the training that the power station supplies do not exceed
minimal levels, hereafter certain steps need to be considered,
which the MEPE considers the power station’s needs andthen plans the training programs, for the purpose of
improving the technical level of their staff. Based on need,JBIC should execute its side support.