Policies and Laws:
How they’re impacting
college enrollment

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Table of Contents
2

Background & Key Findings

6

Campus Gun Policies

8

Reproductive Healthcare Legislation

10

Divisive Concepts

13

Affirmative Action

16

Implications

17

Appendix

20

Methodology

21

About Gallup

21

About Lumina Foundation

1

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Background & Key Findings
Since 2020, Lumina Foundation has partnered with Gallup to conduct the LuminaFoundation-Gallup State of Higher Education study, a research effort designed toquantify the experiences of U.S. adults currently enrolled in postsecondary education,
those who have previously enrolled but have not completed and those who have neverenrolled in any education after high school. The findings shed light on the challenges
these different constituencies face in completing or enrolling in a degree, certificate
or certification program and provide administrators and policymakers the insights
they need to help current and prospective students overcome these barriers.
Past iterations of the State of Higher Education study have shown that the decision
whether and where to pursue a college degree involves several often-competing
considerations, and the importance placed on each factor varies across individuals. Some
prospective students may prioritize cost and affordability over the prestige of a university;
others may prefer — or need — to select a college close to home or one that offers
flexibility to accommodate their job or caretaking responsibilities.
Layered upon these highly individualized decisions are state-level policies that impact
students’ on-campus experience. Based on responses from roughly 14,000 U.S. adults
without a college degree — including nearly 7,000 adults who are considering or currently
pursuing a two- or four-year degree — the 2024 State of Higher Education study reveals
that while these legislative considerations are generally less influential than those related tocost, flexibility and quality of education, they are an important factor for most current andprospective students. Between 70% and 80% of adults who are considering or currently
pursuing a two- or four-year degree say policies related to reproductive healthcare, guns
and restrictions of curriculum are at least somewhat important to their decision whether toenroll or remain enrolled in a program.
Additionally, nearly half of adults who have considered pursuing a bachelor’s degree in thelast two years say recent updates to race-based affirmative action in college admissions
will affect their decision to enroll in a degree program.

2

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
CHART 1

How important are/would each of the following characteristics of [your/a]college [be] in your decision to [stay enrolled/enroll]?
% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s
degree program
7 - Extremely important

6

5

4 - Somewhat important

Note: Due to rounding, percentages may sum to ±1%.

3

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Since 2021, these considerations have been at the center of national policy
conversations due in part to three landmark decisions from the Supreme Court andconcerted efforts to restrict the teaching of certain topics on college campuses.

2021

2022

2022

2023

State legislatures begin
introducing laws to limit
teaching and training
related to race, racism
and other “divisive
concepts” in publicschools, includingcolleges and universities.

The Supreme Court
rules that New York law
enforcement cannot
restrict permits toonly those who have“proper cause” to carry aconcealed firearm, calling
into question similar laws
in seven other states.

The Supreme Court
overturns Roe v.
Wade, granting states
permission to restrict
abortion before thesecond trimesterof pregnancy.

The Supreme Court
rules in Students for Fair
Admissions that colleges
and universities may notconsider race or ethnicity
in their admissions
processes, effectively
ending affirmative action
in college admissions.

4

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

The Lumina-Gallup State of Higher Education survey sheds light not only on how thesefour major policy shifts factor into students’ enrollment decisions but also on whether
students would prefer to attend college in a state with more or less restrictive policies ineach of these areas. Among the most important findings are the following:
Eight in 10 current and prospective students say campus
gun regulations are at least somewhat important to theirenrollment decision, the highest percentage of any public
policy in the survey. Eighty-four percent of those for whom gun
policies are important prefer their campus to restrict firearms.
Of the 71% of current and prospective students who say
reproductive healthcare policies are important to theirenrollment, eight in 10 would prefer to attend college in astate with fewer restrictions. This preference is especiallystrongly held by women, Black and Hispanic adults, and those
aged 35 or younger.
About three-quarters of current and prospective students
say state policies that restrict the discussion of race,
gender and other “divisive topics” in the classroom areimportant to their enrollment decision, with a majorityof this group preferring colleges that are not subjected tothese restrictions.
Three-quarters of Asian adults and more than half of Black
adults who are considering pursuing a bachelor’s degree say
the Supreme Court’s decision to ban affirmative action will
have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of influence on theirdecision to pursue a degree.

While partisan differences exist across all three policy issues,
most current and prospective students of all political parties
who say these issues are important to their enrollment prefermore restrictive gun policies, less restrictive reproductive
healthcare laws and fewer regulations on their curricula.

5

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Campus Gun Policies
In June 2022, the Supreme Court handed down its decision in a major Second
Amendment case, New York State Rifle and Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen. In its decision,
the Court held that New York’s requirement that applicants provide justification for theirrequest to carry a concealed firearm violated the Constitution. Beyond expanding accessto firearms in New York — and potentially other states with similar policies — the Bruendecision may have ramifications for pending cases related to the ability of colleges anduniversities to restrict firearms on their campuses. In addition, a number of shootings haverecently occurred on college campuses, including the University of Virginia, Michigan State
University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the University of Nevada,
Las Vegas.
According to the 2024 Lumina Foundation-Gallup State of Higher Education survey,
38% of currently enrolled students who attend at least half of their courses in person say
they worry “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about gun violence at their college or university,and eight in 10 current and prospective students say campus gun policies are important totheir enrollment decision, with about one in three indicating they are “extremely important.”
CHART 2

Importance of Campus Gun Policies in Enrollment Decision% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s
degree program
7 - Extremely important

6

5

4 - Somewhat important

Note: Due to rounding, percentages may sum to ±1%.

6

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

In addition to being the most influential policy consideration, gun policies also prompt thewidest gap in preference: Among current and prospective students who say gun policies
are important to their enrollment decision, those who want their college to restrict guns
on campus outnumber those who prefer looser regulations of firearms by a more thanfive‑to‑one margin. This preference is held especially strongly by 18- to 25-year-olds(88%), Asian and Black adults (92% and 87%, respectively), women (87%) and Democrats(91%). Still, a majority of current and prospective students of all genders, races andpolitical party affiliations favor campuses that restrict firearms over those that havefewer regulations.
CHART 3Preference for More or Less Restrictive Campus Gun Policies% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree
program who indicate gun policies are at least somewhat important to their enrollment decision
Prefers to attend college with more restrictive firearm policies
Prefers to attend college with less restrictive firearm policies

7

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Reproductive Healthcare Legislation
Just one day after its decision in Bruen, the Supreme Court held in Dobbs v. Jackson
Women’s Health Organization that there is no constitutional right to abortion, overrulingRoe v. Wade and reinstating the right of states to impose restrictions on the procedure
before the second trimester of pregnancy.1 Following the ruling, 14 states have banned
abortion in nearly all circumstances, and an additional seven states have banned theprocedure starting between six and 18 weeks.2
While somewhat less important to enrollment decisions than gun policies, about sevenin 10 current and prospective students indicate policies regarding abortion in the state
where their college is or would be located are at least “somewhat important,” with 21%
saying these policies are “extremely important.” These policies are especially importantfor 18- to 25-year-old adults.
CHART 4

Importance of State Reproductive Healthcare Policies in Enrollment Decision% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s
degree program
7 - Extremely important

6

5

4 - Somewhat important

Note: Due to rounding, percentages may sum to ±1%.

1
2

Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. (n.d.). Oyez. Retrieved February 27, 2024, from https://www.oyez.org/
cases/2021/19-1392

Haines, J. (2024, January 31). Where state abortion laws stand without Roe. U.S. News and World Report. https://www.
usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/a-guide-to-abortion-laws-by-state8

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Moreover, 80% of respondents who say reproductive healthcare access is importantto their enrollment decision would prefer to attend college in a state with less restrictive
abortion policies, compared to 20% who prefer states with more restrictive policies.
Interestingly, while the issue is no more influential in women’s enrollment decisions thanmen’s, men and women express clear differences in which policies they prefer: Womenare 18 points more likely than men to prefer colleges in states with fewer restrictions on
abortion. In addition to women, adults who are Black, Hispanic and under the age of 36
are more likely to prefer less restrictive policies.
CHART 5Preference for More or Less Restrictive Reproductive Healthcare Policies% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree
program who indicate state reproductive healthcare policies are at least somewhat important totheir enrollment decision
Prefers to attend college in a state with less restrictive policies

Prefers to attend college in a state with more restrictive policies

As one might expect based on national attitudes about abortion and the Dobbs decision,a partisan examination of preferences reveals that current and prospective Democrat
students are far more likely than their Republican peers to prefer to attend college in a statewith less restrictive abortion policies; however, nearly two-thirds of Republicans prefercolleges in less restrictive states.

9

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Divisive Concepts
In September 2020, President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 13950, which statedthat the following topics, among others, were examples of “divisive concepts” and could
not be discussed during training or programming for federal employees:• The United States is fundamentally racist or sexist.

• An individual, by virtue of his or her race or sex, bears responsibility for actionscommitted in the past by other members of the same race or sex.

• Meritocracy or traits such as a hard work ethic are racist or sexist or were created bya particular race to oppress another race.3
In the wake of Executive Order 13950, 33 states attempted to replicate this policy in public
colleges and universities, restricting or banning discussion of these “divisive topics” in theclassroom or employee hiring and training activities. To date, eight states have passed atleast one such law.4
About three-quarters of current and prospective students say these types of policies
are at least somewhat important to their decision to enroll or remain enrolled; however,despite the prevalence of divisive concepts bills in state houses across the country, mostof the students for whom these policies are important would prefer their colleges not be
subjected to them.

3
4

Combating race and sex stereotyping. (2020, September 28). Federal Register. https://www.federalregister.gov/
documents/2020/09/28/2020-21534/combating-race-and-sex-stereotyping

PEN America index of educational gag orders. (n.d.). Airtable. Retrieved February 27, 2024, from https://airtable.com/
appg59iDuPhlLPPFp/shrtwubfBUo2tuHyO/tbl49yod7l01o0TCk/viw6VOxb6SUYd5nXM?blocks=hide

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
CHART 6

Importance of Divisive Concepts Legislation in Enrollment Decision% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s
degree program
7 - Extremely important

6

5

4 - Somewhat important

Note: Due to rounding, percentages may sum to ±1%.

Of the 76% of current and prospective students whose enrollment decision is influenced
by divisive concepts legislation, just over three-quarters say they would prefer to attend acollege that did not restrict classroom instruction related to “divisive topics,” compared to
24% who prefer their college limit discussion of these concepts.

11

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
CHART 7

Preference for Divisive Concepts Legislation% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree
program who indicate divisive concepts legislation is at least somewhat important to theirenrollment decision
Prefers to attend college in a state that does not restrict instruction on topics related to race and gender
Prefers to attend college in a state that restricts instruction on topics related to race and gender

These laws are especially unpopular among women and Black respondents, perhaps
not coincidentally, because the restricted topics often relate to debates about whether
women and African Americans have historically been subjected to systemic discrimination.
However, across all genders, ages and races, most adults say they would prefer toattend college on a campus that does not restrict discussing “divisive topics” in theclassroom. Republican respondents are the least likely to prefer unconstrained campuses;
even so, current and prospective Republican students are 22 points more likely to prefer toattend a college that does not restrict instruction of these topics over those that prohibit
such discussions.

12

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Affirmative Action
The Supreme Court decision that most recently — and most directly — disrupted theworld of higher education is the June 2023 ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v.
President and Fellows of Harvard College, which held that colleges and universities may
not consider race in their admissions decisions.5
On its face, the decision should have a relatively limited impact on admissions. A recent
analysis conducted by the Brookings Institution suggests “affirmative action was usedmostly at a relatively small number of selective universities” and estimated that “lessthan 15% ... of four-year college students from historically excluded racial backgrounds
attended colleges that practiced affirmative action prior to the Court’s ruling.”6 That is tosay, the overwhelming majority of students who once stood to benefit from affirmative
action likely never actually received those benefits.
But while few, if any, students will be denied access to higher education due to Students for
Fair Admissions, the details of the ruling may not be well-understood by the general public,
resulting in much broader practical consequences.
Because the Supreme Court’s decision effectively outlawed affirmative action in college
admissions, Lumina and Gallup did not ask prospective students about the extent towhich consideration of race in admissions criteria would influence their decision to enroll
in a specific college. Instead, respondents were asked to indicate whether the ruling inStudents for Fair Admissions would impact their decision whether to enroll in college at all
and whether it would affect the list of schools they would consider applying to.
These data suggest the effects of the ruling will indeed be broader than its nominal
implications: Among adults who have considered enrolling in a bachelor’s degree programin the last two years, nearly half (45%) say the Supreme Court’s ruling in Students for Fair
Admissions will impact their decision to pursue a degree “a great deal” or “a fair amount.”

56Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College. (n.d.). Oyez. Retrieved February 27, 2024, fromhttps://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/20-1199

Reber, S., Goodman, G., & Nagashima, R. (2023, November 7). Admissions at most colleges will be unaffected by Supreme
Court ruling on affirmative action. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/admissions-at-most-colleges-will-beunaffected-by-supreme-court-ruling-on-affirmative-action/

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
CHART 8Supreme Court Ruling’s Impacts
How much will the Supreme Court ruling [in Students
for Fair Admissions] impact your decision to pursue
a degree or credential?

How much will the Supreme Court ruling [inStudents for Fair Admissions] impact yourdecision about which colleges you might apply to?

% Among those who have considered enrolling in abachelor’s degree program in the last two years
Don’t know
A fair amount% Among those who have considered enrolling in abachelor’s degree program in the last two years

Not at all
Not much
A great deal

A great deal
A fair amountNot at all
Don’t know

Note: Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%; numerical values shown when 5% or higher.

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Not muchPolicies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Notably, the percentage of respondents who say the Court’s ruling will impact theirdecision to apply to any college is nearly the same as those who say it will affect the
specific schools they would consider applying to — even though most students attend
universities that accept more than three-quarters of applicants and those schools likely
did not consider race as a factor in admissions before the ruling in Students for Fair
Admissions.7 This reinforces the notion that for many adults, the implications of this rulingand the college admissions process as a whole are opaque and poorly understood.
The two groups of prospective students most likely to say this ruling affects their enrollment decision are Asianand Black adults. However, it is important to note that respondents did not indicate whether the impact of theruling would make them more or less likely to pursue a bachelor’s degree. Therefore, Asian respondents may be
more likely to apply to college after Students for Fair Admissions, while Black respondents may be less likely toapply. This is supported by separate reporting from Gallup’s Center on Black Voices, which finds that more thanhalf of Black adults (52%) believe the Court’s ruling will make it more difficult for Black applicants to attend college,compared to 23% of Asian adults who believe it will make it more difficult for Asian applicants to attend college.8
Curiously, men are nearly twice as likely as women to say the Court’s ruling will impact their decision to pursue adegree (56% vs. 30%), even though the ruling has no bearing on the consideration of gender in the admissions
process. Moreover, some colleges report adopting affirmative action policies in favor of men as a means ofcombatting an increasing gender skew toward women on campus.97
8
9Arum, R., Stevens, M. L., & Bui, O. (2023, July 3). Opinion | For most college students, affirmative action was never enough. The New York Times. https://www.
nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/03/opinion/for-most-college-students-affirmative-action-was-not-enough.html
McCarthy, J. (2024, January 16). Post-affirmative action, views on admissions differ by race. Gallup News.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/548528/post-affirmative-action-views-admissions-differ-race.aspx

Dominus, S. (2023, September 8). ‘There was definitely a thumb on the scale to get boys.’ The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/magazine/men-college-enrollment.html

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Implications

While the enrollment challenge facing U.S. colleges and universities has been exacerbatedby recent events — particularly the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as debates
about the rising cost of college and student loan debt — this issue spans at least a
decade. According to the National Student Clearinghouse, total enrollment in two-year
public, four-year public and four-year private, not-for-profit colleges and universities wasjust over 18 million in fall 2013.10 By the fall of 2023, that number had been reduced by
1.8 million students — a 10% decline.11
This decline is largely fueled by the steep drop in two-year college enrollment, which isdown roughly 30% from 2013 levels. At the same time, enrollment in four-year public andfour-year private, not-for-profit institutions has remained stagnant. As colleges across thecountry compete for this shrinking population of prospective students, it would behoove
Deans of Admissions to understand the factors that wield the greatest influence overstudents’ decisions about whether and where to pursue a college degree.
Many of the most important factors, such as cost, selectivity, curriculum quality andcoursework flexibility, are largely within universities’ span of control. However, for many
students, the overall environment a school exists within — and the state laws and policies
they would be subjected to as students on campus — are only slightly less influential.

Moreover, their preferences are clear: By margins between 52 and68 percentage points, current and prospective students say theywould prefer to attend college in states that are less restrictive ofreproductive healthcare, more restrictive of guns on campus andless restrictive of the topics that can be discussed on campus.
While the margins may vary, this remains true across students of all ages, genders, races
and political party affiliations. Further, these preferences hold even among those living instates that have already implemented less-favorable policies.
While many students do not enjoy the luxury of attending college in any state they choose
due to financial, employment or caretaking limitations, these policies may be the deciding
factor for some students who are deciding between universities that are otherwise similar
in cost, quality and prestige. As a result, colleges and universities in states with less popular
policies may risk seeing otherwise-interested students opt to pursue their degrees in aneighboring state whose policies match their preferences and may find it difficult to attract
out-of-state students to fill the void.

10 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2013). Current term enrollment estimates: Fall 2013.
https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CurrentTermEnrollment-Fall2013.pdf

11 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2024, January 24). Current term enrollment estimates: Fall 2023
expanded edition. https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Appendix
CHART 9States’ Concealed Carry License Policies
No license required to carry a concealed firearm“Shall issue” states, which require authorities to issue concealed carry licenses if applicants pass basic requirements, such as a backgroundcheck and/or a gun safety course“May issue” states, which give law enforcement discretion to issue licenses to carry a concealed firearm

TA B L E 1

Importance of and Preference for Campus Firearms Policies in Enrollment Decision, Based on
State-Level Concealed Carry License Policies% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree program who indicate gun
policies are at least somewhat important to their enrollment decision
Preference

Permitless
Concealed Carry or“Constitutional Carry”“Shall Issue” Policy(No law enforcement
discretion to issue license)“May Issue” Policy(Law enforcement has
discretion to issue license)

Prefers to attend collegewith less restrictive
firearm policies

18

16

14

Prefers to attend collegewith more restrictive
firearm policies

82

84

86

17

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
C H A R T 10

States’ Post-Dobbs Abortion Legislation
Abortion banned in nearly all cases
Abortion banned starting between six and 18 weeks
Abortion legal through pregnancy or up to viability

TA B L E 2Importance of and Preference for State Reproductive Healthcare Policies in Enrollment Decision,
Based on Post-Dobbs Abortion Legislation% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree program who indicate state
reproductive healthcare policies are at least somewhat important to their enrollment decision

Preference

Respondents instates that havebanned abortion innearly all cases

Respondents in statesthat have banned
abortion starting
between six and 18 weeks

Respondents in states
where abortion is legal
throughout pregnancy
or up to viability

Prefers to attend college
in a state with lessrestrictive policies

76

82

81

Prefers to attend college
in a state with more
restrictive policies

24

18

19

18

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment
C H A R T 11

States’ Policies Restricting Teaching or Training Related to “Divisive Concepts” onCollege Campuses
State has passed legislation restricting teaching or training related to certain concepts on college campuses
State legislature is actively considering at least one piece of divisive concepts legislation
State is not considering and has not passed any legislation that would restrict teaching or training related tocertain concepts on college campuses

TA B L E 3

Importance of and Preference for Divisive Topic Legislation in Enrollment Decision, Based on State
Policies Related to Divisive Concepts% Among those currently enrolled or considering enrolling in an associate or bachelor’s degree program who indicate divisive
concepts legislation is at least somewhat important to their enrollment decision

PreferenceState has passed
legislation restricting
teaching certain concepts
on college campuses

Divisive concepts
legislation currently
under considerationin state legislature

No laws
restricting teachingof divisive concepts
on college campuses

Prefers to attend college in astate that does not restrict
instruction on topics related
to race and gender

71

82

76

Prefers to attend college
in a state that restricts
instruction on topics
related to race and gender

29

18

24

19

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

Methodology

Results for the Lumina-Gallup State of Higher Education study are based on web surveys
conducted from Oct. 9-Nov.16, 2023, with samples of 6,015 students who are currently
enrolled in a postsecondary education program (certificate, associate or bachelor’s
degree), 5,012 adults who were previously enrolled in a postsecondary education program
but had not completed an associate or bachelor’s degree, and 2,943 adults who had neverenrolled in a postsecondary education program.
All respondents were between the ages of 18 and 59 and had a high school diploma or
equivalent but not an associate or bachelor’s degree.
For analysis conducted in the Public Policy report, the population of respondents waslimited to the 6,934 adults currently enrolled in an associate or bachelor’s degree programor who have considered pursuing either an associate or bachelor’s degree within the past
two years. Of these respondents, 2,532 are enrolled in a bachelor’s degree program, 1,636
are enrolled in an associate degree program, 1,456 have considered a bachelor’s degree
program, and 1,968 have considered an associate degree program; respondents may be
included in multiple categories.
Respondents were interviewed via Dynata’s non-probability web-based panel.
The data are weighted to match national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic
ethnicity, education, and region for the population of U.S. adults aged 18 to 59 with a highschool diploma but without a college degree. Demographic weighting targets are basedon the most recent American Community Survey figures.

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Policies and Laws: How they’re impacting college enrollment

About Gallup

Gallup delivers analytics and advice to help leaders and organizations solve their mostpressing problems. Combining more than 80 years of experience with its global reach,Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of employees, customers, students
and citizens than any other organization in the world. Gallup has served more than 1,000
education organizations with advice and analytics based on over 85 years of research,
including nearly half a million interviews with education leaders and their teams about
their workplace experiences and the perspectives of more than 6 million students andalumni captured by the Gallup Student Poll and Gallup Alumni Survey. Gallup assists
districts, schools, universities and institutions nationwide with research-based strategies
to provide a culture shift in education to help students on their path toward great careersand great lives.

About Lumina Foundation

Lumina Foundation is an independent, private foundation in Indianapolis that iscommitted to making opportunities for learning beyond high school available to all. We
envision a system that is easy to navigate, delivers fair results, and meets the nation’s
need for talent through a broad range of credentials. Lumina Foundation works withgovernmental, nonprofit, and private-sector organizations to bring about change. We rely
on communications outreach, meetings and events that engage and mobilize people, stateand federal policy outreach, investments in proven and promising practices, and targeted
efforts to measure and evaluate progress.

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