５．評価調査結果要約表 －英語版－

Summary of the Final Evaluation Report
１．Outline of the ProjectCountry: Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Project Title: Macroeconomic Policy Support
Phase 2

Area of Assistance: Human and institutional Cooperation Scheme: Technical Cooperation
capacity development for macroeconomic Project
policy formulation
Responsible

Agency:JapanInternational Budget Expense to date: ￥ 91,400,000

Cooperation Agency (JICA)(Approx.: US$900,000)(R/D): Signed on 08 April 2003

Counterpart Agencies: NERI/CPI, MoAF,

From April 2003 through March MoIH, MoC, MoF, BoL, NUOL, other
Ministries and Agencies

2005

Cooperation Agencies：University of Tokyo,Duration

Kyoto University, Shiga University, Kobe
University, Hiroshima University, Aoyama
GakuinSuzukaUniversity,HouseiInternationalUniversity,University,Development Bank of Japan
１－１

Background Narrative of the Project

The Lao government launched “the New Economic Mechanism (NEM)” and made adecision to adopt the market economy mechanism in 1986. However, the country encountered
the Asian Economic Crisis in 1997 and was forced to advocate for further substantial economic
reform.
On the other hand, Japan was the top donor to the Lao PDR since 1991. In view of raising
the efficiency of the development assistance, the cooperation of the Lao government for
maintaining its sound economic management was demanded by other development partners aswell as Japan.
With these contexts, the Macroeconomic Policy Support Project Phase 1 was introduced
and implemented for two years since April 2000.

Japan, in the cooperation with the Laogovernment, conducted field researches and made policy recommendations in the nine areas,such as macro-economy, financial management and policy, state-owned enterprises, or Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI), under the Project Phase 1.

While the recommended policies werewell evaluated, the project was barely successful in terms of one of the major objectives of the- 41 -

project, “human resource development” of the Lao counterpart. Accordingly, the Laogovernment proposed a technical assistance project to the Japanese government, which focuseson human and institutional development for policy formulation, along with further specificationof the study themes.

The Japanese government agreed to offer the technical cooperation andsigned the Record of Discussion with the Lao government in April 2003 to start up the“Macroeconomic Policy Support Project Phase 2.”
The Project Phase 2 set up four working groups including Economic Integration, Financial
System, Development of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises, and Agricultural and RuralDevelopment.

The researches under the working groups were jointly conducted between theJapanese side and the Lao side.

The Project includes the training in Japan for the analyses of

the research results and the report writing.

The final policy advisory reports will be submitted

to the Lao government, and the achievements will be shared at the final workshop scheduled inVientiane in March 2005.
１－２(5)

Framework of the Project

Overall Goal: The Lao government ensures its capacity for the formulation and theimplementation of solid economic policies.
(6) Project Goal: The capacity of the Lao governmental agencies in policy formulationis enhanced.
(7) Outputs: 0. The Lao government’s capacity for conducting survey, research andstudy, and analysis is developed.
1. Policy advice and recommendation is made based on the outcomes ofthe Lao-Japan joint research.
2. The Lao side develop their capacity for proposing and conducting own
research independently.
3. Policy recommendations made through the Project are acknowledged bysenior officials of the Lao government.
(8)

InputsBy the Japanese government:
1. Assignment of Experts (¥35,800,000 or US$350,000)
Long Term Expert:

Project Coordinator

Short Term Experts: As required

24M/M

20M/M（10M/M yearly）

2. Provision of Equipments (¥1,300,000 or US$12,400)
PCs, printers and other necessary equipments for conducting research.
3. Training Program in Japan (¥12,900,000 or US$122,900)
Training for Analysis and Report Writing: 5.0M/M- 42 -4. Local Activity Cost (¥19,300,000 or US$183,800)
Necessary expenses for the activities.
5. Evaluation Studies (¥22,100,000 or US$210,500)
By the Lao government:
1.Assignment of Counterparts (C/P)
Project Manager: 24M/M
Project Coordinators: 24M/M
Working Group Members
2. Facilities:
Project Office, Data Center
3. Local Cost:

US$80,000

4. Provision of Favorable Status for Japanese Experts
２．Outline of the Evaluation StudyMembers of the Team Leader/Overall Supervision: Michiko UMEZAKI, Group Director, Group II,
Evaluation Team

Regional Department I, JICA Tokyo HQTechnical Advice/Analysis: Haruyuki SHIMADA, Program Coordinator, Southeast
Asia Team IV, Group II, Regional Department I, JICA Tokyo HQ
Evaluation Study/Analysis: Kenichi TSUNODA, Associate Expert, Southeast Asia
Team IV, Group II, Regional Department I, JICA Tokyo HQPeriodof Total 10 days: 17-21 January 2005 and Type of Evaluation: Final Evaluation

Evaluation

28 February – 04 March 2005

Study
３．Outline of the Evaluation Result
３－１

Review of Achievements

・With reference to the inputs of the project, a problem of timing was observed, as the joint
works between the Lao side and the Japanese side were unsuccessful to reserve the sufficienttime.

Apart from that problem, the scheduled inputs of the Project have been properly

carried out as planned.
・The activities of the Project have been mostly implemented as planned.
・By the final workshop at the end of March 2005, all policy advisory reports will be submitted
to the top officials of the Lao government.
acknowledged by them.

And, the policy recommendations will be

In these regards, all output is supposed to be accomplished by thetime.
・Accordingly, it is reasonable to conclude that the Project Goal is accomplished.

- 43 -３－２(6)

Summary of Evaluation

Relevance• The relevance of the project to the economic policy of the Lao PDR is confirmed with theLao government’s Five-year Socio-Economic Plan (2001-2005).

The major targets of

the Five year Plan, such as “to ensure the progress of social security and politicalstability,” “allocating new permanent jobs for people,” “to enhance national saving,” “toseriously pay attention to both state and private enterprises reform,” indicate thegovernment’s commitment to the strengthening its macroeconomic policy.
• The project is also relevant to one of the priority areas of the JICA’s assistance policy in
the Lao PDR, “human resource development.” The project is also in accordance with themid-term priority themes stated in the JICA Country Aid Priority Plan, such as“enhancing quality and capacity of public administration” and “vitalization of the privatesector.”(7)Effectiveness• In general, it is extremely a hard task to identify and measure the effects of the project on
the human resource capacity development during the two-year implementation term.
• Nevertheless, as a result of a series of interviews the evaluation team recognized that theImplementing Agencies, the National Economic Research Institution (NERI) in particular,
proved the development of their capacity for conducing surveys, research and studies, andanalyses for policy advice and the formulation of economic policy.
• The effectiveness of the project is also acknowledged with the relevance between theobtained outcomes of the policy advisory reports, through the Lao-Japan joint surveys andstudies, and the achievement of the project goal.

(8)

Efficiency• While it was understood that the severe constraint with the availability of the Japanese
professors existed during the initial planning stage of the project, the evaluation team still
identified that the timing of the inputs of the Japanese professors caused difficult
challenges to the implementation of the project.
• The number of the trainees dispatched to Japan was limited to 5, due to the constraints
with the budget and the low availability of trainers.

Despite the fact, it was still avaluable input that offset the shortage of the time for the Lao-Japan joint works in the Lao
PDR.
• It is reasonable to conclude that the efficiency of the financial inputs throughout theproject was relatively high, as the expected outcomes were mostly achieved with therelatively small amount of the budgetary inputs.

- 44 -(9)Impact• Because not all the counterparts were involved in the training process and activities,
further supports are required in order to attain the overall goal. But more importantly, theLao side’s continuous commitment and self-efforts are strongly encouraged in order toreach the higher level of the goal in the future.
• Although we are unable to identify a factual MAPS 2’s impact to the Lao’s new Five-year
Plan at this stage, the result of the interview tells us that the Lao side gained not a few
ideas and other benefits from this project towards the formulation of the Plan.
• Due to the shortage of the time for various transactions, voluntary action for collaborationand coordination with other projects or other donors were not taken. Therefore, it should
be concluded that the synergy effect of the project with others was limited to theminimum level.

(10) Sustainability• The financial sustainability after the project completion is the toughest challenge. Due tothe budget constraint of the Lao government, it is unrealistic to expect the same level of
input continuously from the government to NERI as the amount provided by the Project.
• Given the Lao side’s sense of ownership and staff’s eagerness to develop their capacity, it
is fairly reasonable to conclude that the acquired knowledge and skills will be effectively
applied to the future policy formulation process.
• Based on the result of the interview, it is highly likely that we will have lots ofopportunities to identify quotations of the MAPS 2 reports in the Lao government’spublications in the future. In that context, accordingly, we can also evaluate that thisproject is sustainable.
３－３(3)

Effective Factors for the Achievements

In the project designing stage• The Project was designed and planned based on lessons from past projects, including theMAPS Phase 1, such as focusing on “human resource development,” and selecting thefour themes to be intensively studied.
• Based on the experiences of the past projects of JICA assisting in “capacitydevelopment,” the Project was designed to particularly pay attention to the combinationand the supplementary relationship between the technical assistance by Japanese experts
and the training in Japan for the Lao counterparts.

(4)

In the implementation stage• Despite the problems with timing of the inputs and activities, the project management andcoordination was better taken care and handled compared to the MAPS Phase 1.

- 45 -Morefrequent communication and coordination enabled the inputs and the activities to produce
the outputs.
• The Project set up the opportunities for the Lao-Japan joint research and study as often aspossible, which provided the Lao side with learning opportunities.
３－４(3)

Problems and their Causes

In terms of planning• As the Japanese experts were little flexible to set up the timetables, the arrangement of theJapanese experts’ visit to Laos and the joint works between the Japanese side and the Laoside required tremendous amount of coordination.

(4)

In terms of implementation• Because the period of Japanese experts’ stay in Laos was set irregularly and short eachtime, the opportunities for joint works and the learning opportunities for the Lao sidewere limited.
• Because the number of the Lao counterpart participating in the training in Japan foranalysis and policy advisory report writing was limited, the Project left behind thedemand for additional assistance to the analysis and policy advisory report writing.

３－５Conclusion

As a result of the evaluation, the evaluation team assessed that the proposed project goal
would be accomplished by the end of the project in March 2005. Lao counterparts’ capacity forresearch, analysis and report writing has been developed through the Project. Accordingly, wecan conclude that the project objective ‘human resource development’ is attained, and therefore
the completion of this project at the end of March 2005 is relevant.
It should be noted, however, that continuous commitment and self-efforts by the Laogovernment, which should fill the gap between those highly benefited from the Project andthose less did, is highly recommended so as to realize the proposed overall goal.
３－６

Recommendations(3) In view of realizing the overall goal, further efforts for strengthening the capacity ofpartner Ministries and Agencies would be necessary.
(4) Continuous effort for expanding the quantity and the quality of the established Data Center
is a crucial requirement in order to maintain the availability and the usefulness of theCenter in the research process.
３－７

Lessons Learned- 46 -(8) It is an effective approach for human and institutional capacity development to parallelly
apply the twining of the schemes between the Technical Assistance by Expert and theCounterpart Training.
(9) It is critical to focus on a specific goal, such as the capacity development of policy
advisors, when a technical cooperation for policy formulation is carried out.
(10) Likewise, it is a necessary step to wisely select and focus on themes to be studied forpolicy formulation, with a series of discussions with the counterpart government, when atechnical cooperation for policy formulation is carried out.
(11) Furthermore, it is vital to identify appropriate target group and reliable partner among thecounterpart government, when a technical cooperation for policy formulation is carried out.
(12) Collaboration and harmonization with other related projects or initiatives, whether it isinternal within JICA or external with other development partners, is likely to maximize andadd value to your own project.
(13) As the quantitative assessment of achievement with this type of project is extremelydifficult, it is highly recommended to record each achievement and progress made as anactivity is carried out each time.

This work would be also helpful to monitor the Projectand make sure how far the progress has been made.
(14) It is highly recommended for a future project that the preparation of TOR for personnel andtimetable for inputs and activities should be regularly conducted and updated as a projectmakes progress.

This planning and management work should reduce the stress of theproject implementation and management and raise the efficiency and the productivity ofthe project.

- 47 -