Executive Summary for Terminal Evaluation
I. Outline of the ProjectCountry: People’s Republic of China

Project Title: Japan-China Meteorological Disaster Reduction
Corporation Research Center Project
Cooperation Scheme㧦Technical Cooperation

Issue/Sector: Meteorology/
Disaster reduction
Division in charge㧦JICA China Office Total cost㧦
million Yen
Period of (R/D):
Partner Country’s Implementation Organization㧦
Cooperat From Aug. 2005 to June. 2009 China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
ion
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS)
Supporting Organization in Japan: University of Tokyo,
Japan Weather Association (JWA)

1. Background of the Project
In China, meteorological disasters such as floods, droughts, typhoons and cold weather cause serious
economic loss and loss of human lives every year. In spite of the efforts of the Government of China(GoC) in strengthening the meteorological observation network including Doppler Rader and satellite
observation, it is a fact that the number of the weather stations in the Western region is fewer than that ofEastern region. While the GoC is devoting efforts to improve the overall meteorological observation
systems, prediction of weather and meteorological disasters in the Western region, particularly in the Tibet
Plateau, is low due to the low observation density in the area.
Under this circumstance, in order to improve the atmospheric comprehensive observation system in theabove area and to enhance the prediction of weather and meteorological disasters, the GoC requested theGovernment of Japan for technical cooperation, including equipment for Automated Weather Station(AWS) observation (in the Tibet Plateau), Global Positioning System (GPS) observation (in Yunnan
Province, Sichuan Province, Tibet Autonomous Region) and numerical model development (Beijing),
software development, Japanese experts and trainings in Japan.
After interviews and field visit, the Project was adopted in September 2004. JICA conducted appraisals
twice in 2005 and agreed with the GoC on the overall contents of the Project. Since December 2005, theProject has been implemented.
2 Project Overview(1) Overall Goal
Meteorological disaster is reduced in East Asia including China and Japan(2) Project Purpose
The operational weather forecasting system of China is strengthened through the development of
numerical weather prediction models importing the data obtained by the quantitatively and qualitatively
improved observation systems in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area.
(3) Outputs
1) An on-line vapor observation network in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area isestablished.
2) An integrated meteorological observation network covering the Tibet Plateau and its easternsurrounding area is established.
3) Intensive observations of the atmosphere-land interaction in the Tibet Plateau and its easternsurrounding area are carried out.
4) Integrated satellite application systems are established.
5) Data system for maximum use of the observed data in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surroundingarea is established.
6) Understanding of meteorological and hydrological variation mechanisms in Tibetan Plateau and its
eastern surrounding area, which are closely related with weather disasters and water resources in
China and East Asia, is enhanced.
7) Numerical weather prediction models in meso- and regional- scales, in which the observed data in the
Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area is effectively used, are developed.
8) Demonstrations, which illustrates that the improvement of heavy rainfall prediction contributes topublic and social benefits, are carried out.
(4) Inputs
Japanese side㧦Short-term Expert 15 persons

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Equipment
302,403 thousand Yen
Local cost 43,380 thousand Yen       Trainees received 14 persons (including 2 persons for FY 2009) 
Mongolian side㧦Counterpart   Total 85 persons (57 persons at the start of the project)        Land and Facilities Project office (Beijing, Chengdu, Lhasa, Kunming)     
Local Cost 
4069.8 million Chinese Yuan (equivalent of 583,853 thousandyen)

II. Evaluation Team
Members of 1) Leader: Mr. Kojiro MATSUMOTO, Team Leader, Deputy Resident Representative, JICA
China OfficeEvaluation
2) Planning Evaluation 1, Mr. Mitsuaki Okubo, Assistant Resident Representative, JICA China
Team
Office3) Planning Evaluation 2, Mr. Jun Xing, Program Officer, JICA China Office4) Evaluation Analysis, Ms. Junko MIURA, Researcher, Social Development Department,
Global Link Management Inc.
Periodof From March 12, 2009 to March 25, 2009
Type of Evaluation㧦Terminal Evaluation
Evaluation
III. Results of Evaluation
The Project divided the project period into three phases: (1) phase for establishing the observation
system and developing prediction models (December 2005-September 2007); (2) phase for operating theestablished system and improving the developed models (October 2007- August 2008); and (3) phase for
performance evaluation of the observation system and prediction models (September 2008– June 2009).
The extent of the achievement of the Outputs is judged as good or excellent except the Output (8)Demonstration. The achievements of Outputs and Project Purpose are summarized as follows.
<Outputs>
Output 1: An on-line vapor observation network in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surroundingarea is establishedIt can be said that Output 1 has been achieved more than planned. GPS vapor measurement equipment
was installed at the twenty four stations as planned. More than ninety percent of the online observation
data have been obtained from all the twenty four GPS stations. Approximately fifty technical observation
staff (two staff per station) have been trained and maintained. According to the questionnaire conductedin March 2009 shows that most of the staff has already obtained basic management capacity in terms of theoperation of observation equipment, data collection and data accumulation.
Output 2: An integrated meteorological observation network covering the Tibet Plateau and its
eastern surrounding area is established.
It can be said that Output 2 has been achieved more than planned. More than ninety percent of
per-hour data of on-land temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed and precipitation have beenobtained at the existing sixty four Automated Weather Stations (AWSs) out of the existing sixty fivestations while the indicator in PDM was eighty percent. In addition, more than ninety percent of per-hourdata have been obtained at all the seven newly established AWSs. For the rest of the Project, it isimportant for the staff to further strengthen advanced management capacity.
Output 3: Intensive observations of the atmosphere-land interaction in the Tibet Plateau and its
eastern surrounding area are carried out.
It can be said that Output 3 has been almost achieved. Intensive observations of the atmosphere-landinteraction in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area were carried out three times basically asplanned. Continuous data has been obtained at the five Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) stations (three
new stations and two existing stations) while there is lack of few data. With respect to the wind profiler
in Naqu, which has system error, it is necessary for the Project Team to discuss how to recover it.
Through the trainings in Japan, six experts have been trained for PBL and two for Wind Profiler.
Output 4: Integrated satellite application systems are established.

XIt can be said that Output 4 has been achieved more than planned. More than ninety percent ofexperimental products of soil moisture, snow cover, precipitation, cloud and water vapor as well as
atmospheric temperature have been obtained.
Output 5: Data system for maximum use of the observed data in the Tibet Plateau and its easternsurrounding area is established.
It can be said that Output 5 has been almost achieved. By using the obtained data from the Project, adata system for data quality check, data archive and search was developed and established in the China
Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS). It is
expected that the obtained data from the Project will be opened by July 2010 in accordance with the data
policy of Asia Monsoon Year (AMY) Project under the World Climate Research Plan (WCRP).
Output 6: Understanding of the meteorological and water cycle mechanism in the Tibet Plateau andits eastern region, which are closely related with weather disasters and water resources in China andEast Asia, is enhanced.
It can be said that Output 6 has been achieved more than planned. Japanese and Chinese experts
jointly compiled and analyzed the obtained data and produced papers with new insight. Twenty two
papers (twenty for Chinese experts, two for Japanese experts) were published or are waiting for printing ininternational publications, and thirty eight papers (thirty four for Chinese, four for Japanese) were
published or are waiting for printing in Chinese publications. In total, sixty papers (fifty four for Chinese,
six for Japanese) were published or are waiting for printing in Chinese and international publications.
Output 7: Numerical weather prediction models in meso- and regional- scales, in which the observed
data in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area is effectively used, are developed.
It can be said that Output 7 has been achieved. Through the Science Workshop, mini-workshops,
seminars and trainings in Japan, five to six experts who can develop numerical weather prediction models
have been trained. Numerical weather prediction models importing the obtained data from the Project
were developed. These models were built into the performance evaluation verification system, andseveral cases showed the improvement of heavy rain prediction.
Output 8: Demonstrations, which illustrates that the improvement of heavy rain prediction
contributes to public and social benefits, are carried out.
Output 8 has not been achieved yet at the time of the terminal evaluation. The Project Team had
discussions on selecting proper case studies for verification of heavy rain prediction accuracy and forcosting how much economic loss is reduced by heavy rain prediction. The team also discussed planningfor demonstrations which illustrates how much economic loss and loss of human lives are reduced byheavy rain prediction and signals. In addition, it held a seminar regarding flood prediction models fordemonstrations. However, as the responsible agency for water resources has not provided river flow data,
demonstrations have not been carried out.
<Project Purpose>
The operational weather forecasting system of China is strengthened through the development of
numerical weather prediction models importing the data obtained by the quantitatively and qualitatively
improved observation systems in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding area.
By using the numerical weather prediction models developed by the Project, the weather prediction
illustrated its improvement at the operational level. For example, at the time of heavy snow in the
beginning of 2008 and heavy rain from June to July in the Southern China, the weather prediction result byusing the models was evaluated by the performance verification system, which showed effectiveness of themodels. Considering the extent of achievements of the five indicators holistically, it can be said that theoperational meteorological forecasting system of China has been strengthened. If the observed data fromthe Project is opened as planned and if the responsible agency for water resources provides data for riverflow, the level of achievement of the Project Purpose will be further enhanced.

2. Summary of Evaluation Results(1) Relevance
According to the 11th National Economic and Social Development Five Year Plan of the Government ofChina (GoC) for 2006-2010, it states that the GoC shall enhance the capacity of weather disaster prediction

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and improve weather prediction accuracy and timeliness. GoC has also been promoting a long-term planfor building the comprehensive meteorological observation system all over in China. Therefore, it is said
that the Project has high compatibility with the Chinese development policies. Meanwhile, according to
the Japan’s Economic Cooperation Plan for China, Japan put a high priority on the global issues such as
the environmental protection. Joint communiqué between President Hu and former Prime Minister
Fukuda in May 2008 also states that Japan and China cooperate on environmental protection and climatechanges. Therefore, the Project also has high compatibility with the Japanese cooperation policies for
China. In addition, the approach of the Project is also highly appropriate because that the meteorologicalobservation system in the Tibet Plateau is fragile, that the Project was developed based on the long-term
Japan-China joint research cooperation and mutual trust relationship, and that the Japanese scientifictechnology and rich experiences were fully utilized.
(2) Effectiveness
Each output has been progressed as planned or more than planned except Output 8. Outputs wereorganized in chronological order in line with the three phases: development of the observation system andits operation; development of the meteorological prediction models and their improvement; andperformance evaluation of the system and the models. Through this process, the outputs dovetail into theProject Purpose, which aims to strengthen the operational meteorological prediction system. While it canbe said that the Project Purpose has already been achieved, if the observed data is opened as planned and if
the agency responsible for water resources provides required data for demonstration (Output 8), the extent
of achievement of the Project Purpose will be further enhanced.
(3) Efficiency
It was confirmed that inputs by the Japanese side (dispatch of Japanese experts, trainings in Japan,
provision of equipment, etc) were provided properly in terms of quantity, quality and timing, and that theJapanese inputs were fully utilized for the achievement of the Project Purpose. Although the Project
Team encountered various difficulties when they installed equipment, the efficiency of the Projectremained high because of the joint cooperation with the Chinese counterparts (CMA, CAMS,
meteorological administration offices, observation stations and institutes in the target areas) in theadministrative implementation. Chinese side provided more financial inputs than Japanese side, and also
provided necessary human resources and facilities properly. In particular, while the number of Chinesecounterparts stood at fifty seven persons at the beginning of the Project, it drastically increased to eighty
five persons at the time of terminal evaluation. The project is monitored properly through the Joint
Coordination Committee (JCC) (once a year), Science Workshops (twice a year), telephone conferences,
etc. In FY2008, the Project Team also held administrative meetings and the Japanese experts opened acommon website to share the information regarding the progress of each activity and administration.
(4) Impact
Integrated observation system established by the Project has been used by the counterparts with its own
budget in other stations in the Tibet Plateau and its neighboring provinces as well as the National Key
Integrated Meteorological Observation Station (Supersite) in Dali. The counterparts in Siquan Province
and Yunnan Province who received technical cooperation from Japanese experts have been regarded as key
resource persons of the observation techniques in the target area. These key resource persons have been
providing trainings and guidance to technicians in other provinces and regions such as the Tibet
Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province. Meanwhile, based on the research results of the Project,many papers have been published in internationally renowned publications of the American GeophysicalUnion and the American Meteorological Society. This made it possible to demonstrate the Project’s
international contribution, which has been known widely among academia and practitioners.
Furthermore, the Project has been contributing as primary part of the following systems and projects:
China Earth Observation System of Systems (CEOSS), China Climate Observing System (CCOS),
observation system of the Western Route of South-North Water Transfer Project, Asia Monsoon Year
(AMY) Project, The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THOREX) Plan under theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO), etc.
(5) Sustainability
The sustainability of the Project in a policy aspect is high because that the Government of China (GoC)
has established CCOS and because that it has been promoting long-term plans such as CEOSS Ten YearXII

Plan. The sustainability of the Project in a financial aspect is also high because that the Chinese portionof the Project’s budget has already been incorporated in the operational budget of the CMA, because that
the GoC has contributed more financial and human resources to this Project than the GoJ, and because thatit secures budget to maintain the established observation systems even after the termination of the Project.
In technical aspect, according to the questionnaire, most of the experts at the stations have developed basic
capacity in operating equipment and data collection and data accumulation. Manual for observationequipment such as Automated Weather Station and Planetary Boundary Layer jointly developed by
Japanese and Chinese experts is frequently used by the Chinese experts. Trouble shooting Q&A has also
been developed by the Japanese experts and will be shared with Chinese experts in short time. In
addition, with its own initiative, key resource persons in Siquan Province and Yunnan Province havedeveloped their own GPS operation manuals. CAMS has also developed installation manuals for GPS
equipment when the Project installed GPS equipment in 2006. CAMS utilizes the manuals as well as its
knowledge, techniques and experiences, which were acquired from the Project, when it installs GPS
equipment by itself in Hubei Province, Guizhou Province and Guangxi Province outside the Project target
area. In research and development (R&D) aspect, judging holistically from the number of publications,level of publications and academic activities of counterparts, capacity of counterparts in R&D leading tooperational results has been developed not only at the central level but also at the provincial level.
3. Factors that promoted realization of effects(1) Factors concerning to Planning
Factors that promoted realizations of effects, concerning to planning, are the followings: that the Project
was developed based on the Japanese and Chinese long-term research cooperation and mutual trust
relationship; that the Project aimed at strengthening the operational meteorological prediction system bydividing the Project into three phases and by achieving outputs step by step; that the Project positioned
Science Workshops as the opportunity for monitoring the progress of the project activities as well as forsharing advanced science and technology between Japanese and Chinese experts; and that the Project madeclear the division of roles among central, provincial and station levels for efficient implementation ofactivities; that the Project fully utilized the opportunity of dispatching experts for providing guidancecomprehensively from handling of equipment and data to maintenance of equipment, and that it also madethe best use of the opportunity of counterpart trainings for intensive guidance and information sharing ineach research area.
(2) Factors concerning to the Implementation Process
Factors that promoted realization of effects, concerning to the implementation process, are thefollowings: that the Chinese counterparts were keen to improve the meteorological prediction accuracy;
both Japanese and Chinese experts were researchers of the first class; and that experts of both sides fromdifferent research topics, organization and locations cooperated with each other; that Japanese and Chinese
team leaders played great roles in leading the Project team; that several Chinese young experts researchingunder Japanese experts, as members of the Project team, played a role in smooth communication between
Japanese side and Chinese side; that intensive and specialized opinion exchange and technical exchange by
research area have been promoted through mini-workshops and seminars; that the members of thecounterparts remain almost the same (and the number of the counterparts are increasing); and that intensive
observation was carried out almost as planned even after the big earthquake in Siquan Province in 2008
thanks to the special consideration.

3. Factors that impeded realization of effects(1) Factors concerning to PlanningNo particular factors have been observed.
(2) Factors concerning to the Implementation Process
The Project has not carried out demonstrations related to Output 8 since the agency responsible forwater resources has not provided river flow data. This is considered as the influence of the important
assumption.
3-5 Conclusion
While the Project has been implemented in the Tibet Plateau and its eastern surrounding areas, wherecomprehensive observation is very difficult due to the severe natural environment, the evaluation result

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shows that the Outputs except the demonstration (Output 8) were achieved as planned or more thanplanned at the time of evaluation.
It can be said that the Project Purpose of “strengthening the operational meteorological prediction
system” has been achieved, but if the responsible agency for water resources cooperates with the Project, itis probable that the achievement level of the Project Purpose will become higher. In all the fiveevaluation criteria, quite good results were demonstrated. The observation network established by the
Project has already been incorporated in the operational observation system network of the CMA and theobservation stations network of the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) as well as the Chinese national
projects such as the Western Route of South-North Water Transfer Project.
The established network has also been linked with the international research framework such as AMY
and Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS), and this produced synergy effects by
utilizing the Project’s results combined with other network and systems. Furthermore, more than planned
number of papers were written and some of them were published in internationally renowned publications.
Considering these impacts, it can be said that the Project contributed to the advanced meteorologicalresearch not only in China and Japan but also globally. In the near future, it is expected that thecounterparts further strengthen the operational meteorological prediction system by utilizing the developed
numerical meteorological prediction model while making efforts to obtain cooperation from theresponsible agency for water resources, thereby contributing to the reduction of meteorological disaster,which is the overall goal of the Project.
3-6 Recommendations(1) It is recommended to continuously cooperate with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
and the Ministry of Water Resources and provincial authorities responsible for water resources.
(2) It is recommended to further strengthen advanced management capacity of the technical experts
through site visits by the Japanese experts and trainings data quality control.
(3) In order to contribute to promote Asia Monsoon research and global energy/water cycle research, it isrecommended to open the observed data by the Project at earliest timing in accordance with the data
policy agreed at the Joint Coordination Committee in March 2009.
(4) Both Japanese and Chinese sides need to cooperate with each other in order to recover the system errorof the Wind Profiler installed at Naqu at earliest timing.
3-7. Lessons Learned
(1) It was extremely effective to increase efficiency of the Project by utilizing the long-term trust andcooperative relationship between Japanese and Chinese scholars over twenty years.
(2) For the projects covering various research issues, it is effective to organize different thematic groups
and to decide leaders for each group. It is also effective to organize mini-workshops and/or trainings
on specific themes.
It was effective that several Chinese scholars who have been researching in the concerned
themes and have been participating in the Project as members of the Japanese teamassisted the Japanese and Chinese Project Leaders in communication.
They also
contributed to the technical cooperation with Chinese experts by having lectures on theconcerned themes directly in Chinese language. All these contribution to communicationand technical cooperation was very effective.

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