The Cambridge Gazette
In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies
小誌は大量の資料を網羅的かつ詳細に報告するものではな
い— ハーバードに居る一研究者である筆者が接した情報や文献を①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障の分野に関し整理したものである。紙面や時間の制約に加えて筆者の限られた能力という問題は有るが、小ハーバード大学ケネディ行政大学院 シニア・フェロー 栗原 潤
誌が少しでも役立つことを心から願っている。
彼れを知りて己れを知れば、百戦して 殆 (あや)うからず。
Know the enemy and know yourself; In a hundred battles you will never be in peril.
彼れを知らずして己れを知れば、一勝一負す。
When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself; Your chances of winning or losing are equal.
彼れを知らず己れを知らざれば、戦う毎に必ず殆うし。
If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself; You are certain in every battle to be in peril.
(孫子)(Sunzi, an ancient Chinese strategist)『ケンブリッジ・ガゼット: グローバル戦略編』

第 21 号 (2011 年 1 月)

今月号 «目次»
1. Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 21 号
2. 情報概観—①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障
3. 編集後記
1. Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 21 号
世界的な国際政治学者であるジョセフ・ナイ本校教授による新著(The Future of Power)を読んでいる(次の 2 を参照されたい)。筆者が、ナイ教授から同書の執筆に関しお話を伺ったのは昨年 3 月。その後、ナイ教授はわずかな期間—英国のオックスフォード大学に引き篭もって集中的に執筆された時期—を除き、極めて多忙な日々を過ごされていた。すなわち様々な研究会に参加され、また世界各国を廻られていたのだ。それを知っているだけに、今 300 ページ(索引を含む)の本を眼前にして、ナイ教授の知性だけでなく、教授の探究心と努力、更には或る意味での執念を肌で感じている。
奇異な言い方になるが、この本の 300 ページは単なる 300 ページではない。国際政治経済社会に関する様々な情報が盛り込まれている上に、品格を保ちつつも簡明に表現された教授の主張が各ページに溢れている。当然のこととして、これまで教授の洞察力溢れる主張がそのまま賞賛と賛同とをもって識者から広く受け容れられた訳ではない。それを指し示すかのように 236 ページの本文に対し、前書きが 18 ページ、更には巻末に総計 595 個の注釈が 46 ページにわたって付けられている。
同書を著すにあたり、同書の現実社会の中での位置付けを、また誤解を招かぬよう同書を如何に読むべきかを、教授は丁寧に記されたのだと筆者は理解している。そして注釈のひとつひとつを読むと、研究者や実践家から指摘されたこれまでの建設的批判を謙虚に受け止め、それらに対して証拠立てて丁寧に反論しているナイ教授の真摯な姿勢が感じ取れる。浅学菲才の筆者ではあるが、ひとりの人間として、ナイ教授からこの謙虚で真摯な態度を学んでみたい。
2. 情報概観

紙面の制約上、原則、参考になると筆者が判断した最新情報のみを掲載し解説や関連資料は一切省略。

マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Books, Papers, and Articles
Chamon, Marcos, Kai Liu and Eswar Prasad, 2010, “Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China,” Working Paper No. 10/289,
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Cline, William R. and John Williamson, 2010, “Currency War?” Policy Brief BP10-26, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute forInternational Economics (PIIE), November.
Conway, Paul et al., 2010, “Reforming China’s Monetary Policy Framework to Meet Domestic Objectives,” Economics Department
Working Paper No. 822, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), December.
de Mello, Luiz et al., 2010, “Are Global Imbalances Sustainable?: Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals,”
Economics Department Working Paper No. 813, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),November.
Murphy, Melissa and Wen Jin Yuan, 2010, “Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia,” Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS), November.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2010, OECD Economic Outlook, No. 88, Paris: OECD, November.
Tokuoka, Kiichi, 2010, “Rebalancing in Japan: The Role of Private Consumption,” Working Paper No. 10/293, Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Waysand, Claire, 2010, “European Financial Linkages: A New Look at Imbalances,” Working Paper No. 10/295, Washington, D.C.:

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The Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 21 (January 2011)
One must listen well and speak little for good behavior in the government of the state.
[Il faut écouter beaucoup et parler peu pour bien agir au gouvernement d’un État.](Cardinal-duc de Richelieu)

国家の統治において正しく行動するには、多くに耳を傾け、そして僅かに語りかけるべきなのだ。
(リシュリュー枢機卿)

International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
December 16: (Washington, D.C.) Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP): “China’s Unbalanced Growth: Vice or Virtue?”
Myron Brilliant (Senior Vice President for International Affairs, U.S. Chamber of Commerce), Yukon Huang (黄育川) (SeniorAssociate, CEIP), Michael Pettis (Prof. Peking Univ.), Douglas H. Paal (Vice President, CEIP).
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Books, Papers, and Articles
Haščič, Ivan et al., 2010, “Climate Policy and Technological Innovation and Transfer: An Overview of Trends and Recent Empirical
Results,” OECD Environment Working Paper No. 30, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),December.
Henderson, Rebecca and Richard G. Newell, 2010, “Accelerating Energy Innovation: Insights from Multiple Sectors,” NBER WorkingPaper No. 16529, November.
World Economic Forum, Ad Hoc Working Group on Trade and Climate Change, 2010, “From Collision to Vision: Climate Change andWorld Trade: A Discussion Paper,” Geneva: World Economic Forum (WEF), November.
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
December 3: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “World Economic Outlook 2010,” Nobuo Tanaka(田中伸男) (Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA)), Fatih Birol (Chief Economist, IEA), Richard H. Jones(Deputy Executive Director, IEA).
December 14: (Washington, D.C.) Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP): “Understanding Energy Intensity Data in China:
Insights from a Preliminary Study,” William Chandler (CEIP), Yanjia Wang (王彦佳) (Prof. Tsinghua Univ.), Howard K.
Gruenspecht (CEIP).
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Books, Papers, and Articles
Brendon, Piers, 2010, “China Also Rises,” The National Interest, No. 110 (November/December), pp. 6-13.
Chin, Gregory and Ramesh Thakur, 2010, “Will China Change the Rules of Global Order?” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 4(October), pp. 119-138.
Cornish, Paul et al., 2010, “On Cyber Warfare,” London: Chatham House, November.
Foot, Rosemary and Andrew Walter, 2010, China, the United States, and Global Order, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,December.
Hart, Andrew F. and Bruce D. Jones, 2010, “How Do Rising Powers Rise?” Survival, Vol. 52, No. 6 (December/January), pp. 63-88.
Kan, Shirley A., 2010, “U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress,” RL32496, Washington, D.C.: Congressional ResearchService (CRS), December.
Kissinger, Henry A., 2010, “Power Shifts,” Survival, Vol. 52, No. 6 (December/January), pp. 205-212.
Ladwig, Walter C., III, 2010, “India and Military Power Projection: Will the Land of Gandhi Become a Conventional Great Power?”
Asian Survey, Vol. 50, No. 6 (November/December), pp. 1162-1183.
Medalia, Jonathan, 2010, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments,” RL33548, Washington,
D.C.: Congressional Research Service (CRS), December.
Moltz, James Clay, 2011, “China, the United States, and Prospects for Asian Space Cooperation,” Journal of Contemporary China, No.
68 (January), pp. 69-87.
Nye, Joseph S., Jr., 2010, “American and Chinese Power after the Financial Crisis,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 4 (October), pp.
143-153.
Nye, Joseph S., Jr., 2011, The Future of Power, New York: PublicAffairs, February.
Wasem, Ruth Ellen, 2010, “Visa Security Policy: Roles of the Departments of State and Homeland Security,” R41093, Washington, D.C.:
Congressional Research Service (CRS), December.
Wu, Xinbo (吴心伯), 2010, “Understanding the Geopolitical Implications of the Global Financial Crisis,” Washington, Quarterly, Vol. 33,No. 4 (October), pp. 155-163.
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
December 15: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Evolving Challenges in East Asia: Freedom ofNavigation and North Korea,” Introduction: Richard C. Bush III (Dir. Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Brookings); Takeo
Akiba (秋葉剛男) (Minister, Head of Political Section, Embassy of Japan), Akihiro Iwashita (岩下明裕) (Prof. HokkaidoUniversity); “Panel 1: Freedom of Navigation in East Asia,” Moderator: Richard C. Bush III; Peter Dutton (Assoc. Prof. Naval WarCollege), Shin Kawashima (川島真) (Assoc. Prof. Univ. of Tokyo), Koichi Sato (佐藤考一) (Prof. Oberlin Univ.); “Panel 2: NorthKorea,” Moderator: Kongdan Oh (Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies); JonathanPollack (Senior Fellow, Brookings), Mitsuhiro Mimura (三村光弘) (Assoc. Senior Research Fellow, Economic Research Institutefor Northeast Asia (環日本海経済研究所) (ERINA)), Yuki Asaba (浅羽祐樹) (Assoc. Prof. Yamaguchi Prefectural Univ.).
December 22: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “The Defense Budget and American Power,” Introduction and Moderator:
Martin S. Indyk (Vice President and Dir., Foreign Policy); Panelists: Robert Kagan (Senior Fellow, Brookings), Michael E.
O’Hanlon (Senior Fellow, Brookings), Alice M. Rivlin (Senior Fellow, Brookings)

Jun Kurihara; 栗原 潤

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The Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 21 (January 2011)
Meritorious deeds performed by rulers consist of wealth and strength.
For this reason, when a state is wealthy and strong, its vassals obey the law
while its neighboring states revere the state..
[主之所以爲功者富強也。故國富兵強，則諸侯服其政，鄰敵畏其威。](Guǎn Zhòng, an ancient Chinese statesman)

主の功を爲す所以(ゆえん)の者は、富強なり。
故に國富み兵強ければ、則(すなは)ち諸侯其の政(まつりごと)に服し、隣敵(リンテキ)其の威を畏(おそ)る。
(管仲)その他—Information in Other Fields
Akcigit, Ufuk and William R. Kerr, 2010, “Growth Through Heterogeneous Innovations,” NBER Working Paper No. 16443, November.
Baldwin, Richard and Anthony Venables, 2010, “Relocating the Value Chain: Offshoring and Agglomeration in the Global Economy,”
NBER Working Paper No. 16611, December.
Brander, James A. et al., 2010, “The Effects of Government-Sponsored Venture Capital: International Evidence,” NBER Working Paper
No. 16521, November.
Conway, Paul et al., 2010, “Product Market Regulation and Competition in China,” Economics Department Working Paper, No. 823,
Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), December.
Craig, John and Andrew Gunn, 2010, “Higher Skills and the Knowledge Economy: the Challenge of Offshoring,” Higher Education
Management and Policy, Vol. 22, No. 3 (December), pp. 1-17.
Deibert, Ronald and Rafal Rohozinski, 2010, “Liberation vs. Control: The Future of Cyberspace,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 21, No. 4(October), pp. 43-57.
Dumont, Jean-Christophe et al., 2010, “International Migrants in Developed, Emerging and Developing Countries: An Extended Profile,”
Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 114, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), December.
Gerth, Karl, 2010, As China Goes, So Goes the World: How Chinese Consumers Are Transforming Everything, New York: Hill and Wang,November.
Grewal, Bhajan S. and Abdullahi Ahmed, 2011, “Is China’s Western Region Development Strategy on Track? An Assessment,” Journalof Contemporary China, No. 69 (March), pp. 161-181.
Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Kati Suominen, 2010, Globalization at Risk: Challenges to Finance and Trade, New Haven, CT: Yale
University Press, October.
Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Jared C. Woollacott, 2010, “Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far,
Worse Ahead?” Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), Working Paper10-17, December.
Karam, Philippe D. et al., 2010, “Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms,” Working Paper No. 10/297, Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Leung, Man-Kwong and Qianjin Lu, 2011, “Changing Money Market and Monetary Policy Operations in China: An Institutional
Perspective,” Journal of Contemporary China, No. 69 (March), pp. 287-305.
N’Diaye, Papa M’B. P., 2010, “Transforming China: Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s,” Working Paper No. 10/284,
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2010, Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2010, Paris:OECD, December.
Redding, Stephen J., 2010, “Theories of Heterogeneous Firms and Trade,” NBER Working Paper No. 16562, December.
Syed, Murtaza H. and Jinsook Lee, 2010, “Japan’s Quest for Growth: Exploring the Role of Capital and Innovation,” Working Paper No.
10/294, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Event: December 14: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: Cheng LI (李成), “China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond EconomicTransformation.”

3. 編集後記
世界的な東洋専門家であるエズラ・ヴォーゲル教授から最近お電話を頂戴した。その時、執筆を長年続けてこられた原稿—中国の偉大な指導者、鄧小平の伝記—が今春完成することを伺った。いつから調査研究・執筆をされたかを教授から伺ってはいないが、筆者が本学に移った 2003 年にはもう執筆を開始されていたと思う。そう考えると 7 年以上にもなり、まるでトルストイの『戦争と平和(Война и мир)』のような大作になるのではないか。前述のナイ教授、そしてヴォーゲル教授をはじめとして本学は知的探究心の塊のような人々に溢れている。限られた能力だが、そうした優れた人々の長所を学び、少しでも日本そして世界に対してお役に立つことが出来ればと願っている。
以上(編集責任者) 栗原 潤
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹
ハーバード大学ケネディ行政大学院 シニア・フェロー

Jun KURIHARA
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies
Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School(Tokyo Office) 〒100-6511
Mailing address: 79 JFK St., Ash Center, Cambridge, MA 02138
東京都千代田区丸の内 1-5-1 新丸の内ビルディング 11 階
Office address: 124 Mt. Auburn, Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: +81-(0)3-6213-0550 (代); Kurihara.Jun@canon-igs.org
Tel: +1-617-384-7430; Fax: +1-617-496-4602; Jun_Kurihara@hks.harvard.edu; Kurihara-Jun@rieti.go.jp
過去の Cambridge Gazette はネット上で見ることが出来、ダウンロードも出来ます。ネット上で「Google グループ」のウェブサイトに行き、そこで“Cambridge Gazette”と打ち込めば、Cambridge Gazette が載せてあるサイトに導かれます。

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Jun Kurihara; 栗原潤