http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

http://www.nies.go.jp/

Sector Level Policies:
Research on Designing Smart Cities towards Low Carbon
Society
Shuichi Ashina
Manager of International Coordination Office / Senior Researcher
National Institute for Environmental Studies
E-mail: ashina.shuichi@nies.go.jp
The presentation includes research outcomes from The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF, 2-1402, 21404, 2-1702 and 2-1711), the “Project to Advance MRV and Related Techniques in Indonesia for the Promotion of a Joint Credit
Mechanism (from FY2014-2017)”, the “Project to Promote CO2 Technology Assessment (from FY2014-2017)” of Ministry of theEnvironment, Japan, and Japan and the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) by JST/JICA(the Japan Science and Technology Agency and the Japan International Cooperation Agency).

The Training Programme on Climate Change for Bhutanese Policy Makers
February 7, 2018 at Climate Change Research Hall, NIES, Tsukuba

2018/02/07

2

Key Points of the Paris Agreements• Long-term goal
• Keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing actions to stayunder 1.5 degrees.
• Reaching net zero GHG emissions in the second half of the century.
• Emissions targets• Setting national targets for reducing GHG emissions every five years.
• Tracking progress towards the long-term goal through a robusttransparency and accountability system.
• Loss and Damages• Recognizing the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss
and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change.

What we should do: Taking the Actions for LCS ASAP!

3

2018/02/07

However…
• All we know

Taking Action is Important!
Why We need to Reduce GHGs!

• Less we know

How We Can Reduce GHGs?
What Action is Suite for Us?
Who’s Actions are Crucial for?
Where is a Source of GHGs?
How Much does it Cost?

Science and Research could deliver Solutions and Roadmaps
toward Low Carbon Society

4

2018/02/07

Brief History of Low Carbon Society Study in AIM
AIM project started
ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE(Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea)

AIM

1990

1994
COP3

Training workshop at COP8,
India
JST/JICA SATREPS Project(FY2011-FY2015)

1997

2001

AIT

2004

2006

Japan LCS Project(FY2004-FY2008)
Japan-UK Joint Project(FY2006-FY2007)
LCS-RNet(FY2009-)

2007
2008

Malaysia

2009

2010
2011

Asia LCS Project (FY2009FY2015)

Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam

2050

Low Carbon Society5

2018/02/07

Research Project on Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
Advisory board：
advice to projectTechno-Socio Innovation Study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportation
systemIT-society

Energy saving Tech. innovationBaU scenario
EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechangeGHG reduction target

2020

2050

2010

（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

2000

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

1990

Develop socioeconomic scenario,
evaluate countermeasures using econtechno models

GHG emission

Urban structure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

Intervention
scenario

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid
5
3
1
-1

EquitySuitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

60 Researchers
Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

6

2018/02/07

Depicting Socio-economic Visions in 2050:
Two different but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon”

Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comicseries created by Fujiko F. Fujio.
The series is about a robotic cat
named Doraemon, who travels
back in time from the 22nd
century. He has a pocket, whichconnects to the fourth dimension
and acts like a wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005 World
Expo. Satsuki and Mei aredaughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived an
old house in rural Japan, nearwhich many curious and magicalcreatures inhabited.

7

2018/02/07

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 for Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society
Change of activity

10
13
90

38
9
7
28

Industry

21

6
1
24

Residential &commercial

6

17

41
77

Transportation

36

Energy supply

36
CCS

2050 CO2 Emission

Improvement ofenergy intensityof end-use
Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensityof energy supplyof end-use

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

Reductionof demand

Changeof activity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

Reduction ofservice demand

・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house
・Photovoltaic

Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Carbon Capture
Storage・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

8

2018/02/07

Research Project on Asia Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
Sustainable development through LCS
Future trends on socio-economic
condi ons, energy, resources, regional
diversity, culture, lifestyle, etc.

a ge
dam
high y and
m
With
cono
on E al Systemr
Natu

GHG emissions per capita

Developed

Ins tu onal design for int’lSustainable resourcecoopera on
management
Ins tu onal design for interna onal
• Construc ng material
coopera on, regional regime, etc.
accounts• Low-Carboniza on
through improvement
resource produc vityand material recycle

Diversity of Asia

Developing
Backcas ng

Low-Carbon
Society

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios(1) Depic ng narra ve scenarios for LCS(2) Quan fying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcas ng
Policy Packages for Asia LCS

LC Transporta on• Low-Carbon City withLC transport system• Grand design for
future transportsystem• Encouraging in framing for LC policy ineach Asian countries• Assistance for interna onal nego a ons
with scien fic basis• Approaches for int’l LCS ac vity framework• Networking among LCS research in Asia

2018/02/07

9

There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to thereference case in Asia•

The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level andemissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario.
It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions
and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock)appropriately compared to the reference scenario in 2050.

GHG Emissions (GtCO2e/year)•

GHG emissions in Reference and LCS
scenarios

Action 1: Urban Transport
Action 2: Interregional Transport
Action 3: Resources & Materials
Action 4: Buildings
Action 5: Biomass
Action 6: Energy System
Action 7: Agriculture and Livestock
Action 8: Forest & Landuse
Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from otherthan agriculture and livestock)
GHG emissions in Asia (LCS)
Global GHG emissions (LCS)
Global GHG emissions (Reference)

2018/02/07

10

Our Next Challenge:
How to Mobilize People and Society?
• Transition to the LCS needs to gain the cooperation of a wide

range of stakeholders, including policy makers, international
aid agencies, private companies, local communities and NGOs.
• However, in many cases, national solutions are solutions forsomebody that one is not.
• For getting their concern, science and research are expected toestablish methodologies and deliver actions and roadmaps
effective for their daily lives and businesses – FOR THE CITY!

11

2018/02/07

Methodology for Designing Regional/City LCS Scenarios:
New Paradigm should be proposed• Region/Subnational is NOT miniature version of national situation.
• Regional characteristics should be considered for designing regional/city

low carbon society scenarios.
Example: Wind situation differs island and island, and area by area.

Source: http://energy-indonesia.com/03dge/Soeripno%20Martosaputro.pdf

12

2018/02/07

AIM’s Approach: Multi Scale Scenario Analysis

Aggregated and longer-term
analysis

Global and Pan-Asian scale
approach

National scale approach

Local scale approach

Detailed and shorter-term analysis

Three different scales but interactive approaches are employed in Low Carbon Society
Scenario Study in AIM

13

2018/02/07

National AIM Models: Integration of Energy-Economy-Environment
Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ...

Emission Model

Simple Climate Model【Account model】【Global】【Enduse model】【Country】【Economic model】
mid-term target

GHG emissions

IPCC/WG3

carbon tax

Real World

long-term vision【Local/City】【sequential
dynamics】

low carbon scenario
future society

temperature

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Impact/Adaptation Model【dynamic
optimization】

IPCC/WG2

feedback

Agriculture

IPCC/integrated scenario

Model World

Water

Other Models
Human health
Population

Transportation

Residential【Global】
Burden share

Stock-flow

Accounting

adaptation【National/Local】

14

2018/02/07

Na onalRegionTarget Spa al Scale

New Modeling Approach: Multi-layered Regional Modeling System
Industry

EnduseTechnology

Electricity
Heat
O

e
lin
t
u

D

ig n
s
e

Subna onal Scale Analysis Models
EnduseTechnology

Industry

Province

Electricity
Heat

Local Scale Analysis Models
Industry

Municipality

Na onal Scale Analysis Models

Macro-scale System
Design Models

EnduseTechnology

Electricity
Heat

Low Carbon Area Design Models
EnergyMaterial
SupplyRecycling
Renewable
Poten alDistrict
il
ta
e
D

ed

IND

Strategic Urban Design Models
COM ENE
IND
RESDistrict Design Models
COM TRP
RES

ForestEco-system

n
sig
e
D

Spa al/GIS-based Models

Infra

Low Carbon Ac on
Database

Buildings
Agriculture
Renewable

Industry
Technology
Lifestyle15

2018/02/07

Aiming Science to Action:
Collaborative Scenario Development with Policymakers
Policy makers
Central/regional
government
administration
Development
Agencies
NGOs

Collaboration for LCS
scenario development andbuilding roadmaps

Each country’s
domestic/ local
research
instituteCore researchmembers

Request of more practical,
realistic roadmaps and also
tractable tools for real world

Application anddevelopment toactual LCS
processes

Development andmaintenance ofstudy tools/models

Vietnam

Korea
China

India
ThailandJapan

Indonesia

Malaysia

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

2018/02/07

Activities on National LCS studies

16

2018/02/07

17

Activities on City-scale LCS Studies

Recent Progress:“Bhutan Low-Carbon Society Scenario Study 2050”

2018/02/07

18

Introduction: Overview of the Project
Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions

Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU), National
Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Department of Town
and Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC)
Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST)Period: 2011 - 2016

Research Output:
i. Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.
ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilised for policy development in IM.
iii. Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM
iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asian
countries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established19

2018/02/07

Background
Iskandar Malaysia: Key Challenges
CO2 Reduction target in Malaysia:
Voluntary 40% reduction of CO2
emission intensity by 2020

IssuesRapid urbanization and industrialization
Higher energy demand and CO2 emission
Decouple economic growth and emission on
fossil fuelBlueprint – 3 main thrusts –Green economy,
community andenvironment.
=12 actions
Size: 2,216.3 km²
Population: 1.3 mil. (2005) I 3.0 mil. (2025)
GDP: 35.7 bil. RM (2005) I 141.4 bil. RM (2025)

Joint collaboration work of
UTM, KU, NIES under
SATREPS program20

2018/02/07

Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia
Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment

Green Economy
59%
Green Community
21%

Green Environment
20%Green Economy
1 Integrated Green Transportation
2 Green Industry
3 Low Carbon Urban Governance
4 Green Building and Construction
5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy

Green Community
6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building

Green Environment
8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design
9 Smart Urban Growth
10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources
11 Sustainable Waste Management
12 Clean Air Environment

21

2018/02/07

Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia
12 Actions Towards Low Carbon Future
Mitigation Options%

Green Economy

CO2
Reduction
7,401

Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation
Action 2 Green Industry
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance*
Action 4 Green Building and Construction
Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy

1,916
1,085
1,338
3,061

15%
9%
11%
24%

Green Community

2,557

21%

Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building*

2,557
-

21%
-

Green Environment

2,510

20%

Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design
Action 9 Smart Urban Growth
Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources
Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management
Action 12 Clean Air Environment*

264
1,214
620
412
-

2%
10%
5%
3%
-

Total

12,467*100%* Action 3, 7 and 12 does not have direct emission reduction, but their effect is included in other Actions.

59%

22

2018/02/07

LCS Actions for IM – Work Breakdown Structure
Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
Work Breakdown Structure of 12 LCS Actions

ActionSub-actions

1.0 Key Policy Actions needed to achieve the final goal of the
project (targeted 50% cut in carbon emission intensity by2025 based on 2005 levels)

1.1 Sub-actions needed to produce policy outcomes thatjointly lead to the achievement of a key Policy Action

Measures1.1.1 Measures that are more detailed breakdown andinterpretation of Sub-actions into strategies with a clearer
implementation dimension

Programs

1.1.1.1 Programs – Specific activities, deliverables,from which resource requirements, budget,
implementation agencies and duration may be
identified/estimated23

2018/02/07

LCS Actions for IM – WBS by Action
Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
Action 1: Integrated Green Transportation

1.1
Integrated Public
Transportation

1.1.1
Public transportsystemimprovement

1. Route network
expansion planning(improve network
coverage andconnectivity)
2.Increase bus
frequency, improvepunctuality andreliability
3. Real time arrival
information
4. Public transport
reimaging
5. Flat rate tickets
and central area free
shuttle services
6. Web basedjourney planner

1.1.2
Introducing rail& water-based
public transport

1.1.3
Efficient & seamless
intermodal transfer(interchange) facilities

1. Route network
planning

1. Integrated
ticketing system(across all
platforms)

2. Connectivity &integration withexisting public
transport modes

2. Public transportinterchanges as
destinations &urban activity
nodes
3. Park and ridefacilities insuburban transit
nodes

1.6
Green
Freight
Transportation

1.2
Improving JBSingapore, JB-KL
Connectivity

1.3
Diffusion of Low
Carbon Passenger
Vehicles1.4
Enhancing Traffic
Flow Conditions &Performance

1.5
Green
Transportation in
Rural Areas

1.2.1
Intercity high-speed
rail transit (HSRT)

1.3.1
Promote the use of
low carbon vehicles

1.4.1
Transportation
Demand Management
(TDM)

1.5.1
Improve public
transport services &use in rural areas

1.6.1
Modal shift togreener freighttransport modes

1.6.2
Promotegreen/hybrid
freight transport

1. Integrate
Singapore MRT(SMRT) system with
Iskandar Malaysia
Light Rail Transit(IMLRT) & bus
systems

1. Government
agencies to use
hybrid vehicles/
electric vehicles

1. Provide hybrid
bus services fromrural areas to urban
areas

1. Modal shift
from road-based
to rail-based
freight transport

2. Provide school
bus services forstudents in ruralareas

2. Modal shift to
ship-freighttransport

1. Tax incentives
for freight
operators inacquisition of
hybrid freightvehicles

2. JB Sentral as
HSRT-SMRT-IMLRT
hub

3. Gradual phasingout of diesel engine
buses

2. Tax reduction forhybrid vehicle
purchase

4. Subsidy forpurchase of hybrid
buses

1. Intelligent
Transportation
System (ITS)
2. Enhancing traffic
signal performance
3. Enhance the use of
Variable Message
Sign (VMS)
4. Tidal flow andcontra-flow along
primary radial routes
5. Increase parking
charges

3. Subsidise ruralarea hybrid bus
services24

2018/02/07

Bridging Research and Policy in Iskandar Malaysia
COP17 (Dec 2011)

Approval by PM(Dec 2012)

Roadmap towards
Low Carbon IM

COP19 (Nov 2013)
Identifying Low Carbonizing
Potential in IM

PM approved Dozen
Action as official
program in IM

Continuous Discussion with Stakeholders
including researcher, policymaker, business, NGOs

Proposal of 10 Actions by IRDA

March 2014
Approvals and Implementation Committee(AIC) in IRDA endorsed the BP and Roadmap asformal government plan2018/02/07

25

Local, National, and International Actions are Needed
for Achieving SDGs

26

2018/02/07

For example, energy access (Goal 7) needs to take actions inrural area…
Electricity access in 2014 - Regional aggregates
Population without
electricity

Electrification
rate
%

Urban
electrification
rate
%

Rural
electrification
rate%

millions
Developing countries

1,185

79%

92%

67%

Africa

634

45%

71%

28%

North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa

1
632

99%
35%

100%
63%

99%
19%

512

86%

96%

79%

0
244

100%
81%

100%
96%

100%
74%

Latin America

22

95%

98%

85%

Middle East

18

92%

98%

78%

Transition economies & OECD

1

100%

100%

100%

1,186

84%

95%

71%

RegionDeveloping Asia
China
India

WORLD

SOURCE: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016

27

2018/02/07

AND for Developed countries• Goal 7 of SDGs aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable,

sustainable and modern energy for all.
• Japan depends on almost modern energies.
• These are reliable and sustainable (or clean) ?
• Developed countries also need to innovative city design.
Primary Energy Consumption [Mtoe]

600

3.11
30

500

NUC

25

Oil Crisis

20

400

GAS

15
10

300

5
0
1880

1900

1920

OIL

200
100

COAL

0
1880
Period:

1895
Meiji

Renewable and Others

1910 1925|Taisho|
Nuclear

1940
Gas

1955 1970
Showa
Oil

Coal

1985
|

Hydro

2000 2015
Heisei

Traditional Biomass

28

2018/02/07

City is Spatially Homogeneous?
Distribution of Population in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
Fukushima Prefecture

Maritime Area

Mountains Area

Commercial Center Area

29

2018/02/07

Changing City Structure will be Expectedboth Developing and Developed Countries• Cities will transform at any one time.
• Some city will be centralized, and others will be decentralized.

• Policy and Business (including transportation authority) lead suchtransformation.
Status Quo

Concentration (1)Concentration (2)City keeps Everything as is.

Relocation to Urban Area

Relocation to City Core

Relocation

Urban
Area

Relocation

Urban
Area

Urban
Area

Relocation

City Core
Relocation

Relocation30

2018/02/07

Target City: Koriyama in Fukushima

Fukushima Branch(2016.4-)

TsukubaHeadquarters

KoriyamaCity
Lake Biwa Branch
Office (2017.4-)

We are Here!

31

2018/02/07

Analytical Flow of Developed Model• The model calculate energy

service demand and energy
supplied based on Land-use
and urban structure.

Analysis of Low Carbon Measurein Demand-side
Calculation of Energy Service Needed

Evaluation of Renewable Energy Supplied
Analysis of CHP Location and Energy (Heatand Electricity) Supplied

EnergySupplyservice calculation.
• Energy supplied fromrenewables and CHPs are
determined energy demandsupply balance in thecity/area.

Evaluation of Energy Service Demand
Energy Demand• 5-m DEM is used for energy

Land-use and Urban Structure(Population etc, 1 km x 1 km (5-m DEM))

32

2018/02/07

Detailed Structure of Developed Model
Energy Demand Analysis
Spatial Distribution of Energy
DemandEvaluation of Current and Future
Energy Demands by Mesh.

Industrial Symbiosis
Industrial Demand and Design
Sysmtem based on idea ofIndustrial Symbiosis

Energy Resource Analysis
Solar and Wind Potentials

Design on Biomass
Distribution System

Evaluation of Solar and Wind
Potential in consideration of
Climate Change

Design System for Biomass
Distribution and Evaluationof Supply Potential

冷房
暖房

110%

太陽光発電
現在値

108%

給湯

MIROC5_RCP8.5_2060

106%

年間総需要量41.69 TJ
業務

住宅

動力・照明

MRI_RCP8.5_2060

104%
102%

冷房

100%

暖房

98%

給湯

94%

96%

動力・照明

Comprehensive Design on Regional Energy System(c) Low Carbon Energy System Design Model for Region and Urban Area (Regional AIM/Enduse)

Design on Regional/Urban Area Energy System based on
Spatial Distribution of Energy Demands and Resources, andEvaluation of Impacts on Low Carbon (CO2 Reduction) by
Implementing the Designed System.

未利用熱の大きい臨海地域：

PVポテンシャルの大きい住宅隣接地域：

削減量内訳：川崎

20%(万tCO2)

削減量内訳：西荻窪

駅名は必要に応じて削除

CEMS(需給調整)

11%CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用14%

未利用熱利用

36%

熱電併給

熱電併給

44%

対策後排出量54%

対策後排出量

排出量：25,631 (tCO2)
削減量：20,533 (tCO2)(削減率 80%)

排出量：28,907 (tCO2)
削減量：16,194 (tCO2)(削減率 56%)14%
6%

電力需要が大きく未利用熱源と近接しない都心部密集地域：

未利用熱と住宅PVの活用により大きな削減率が見込める地域：

削減量内訳：東京

削減量内訳：千葉中央

駅名は必要に応じて削除

駅名は必要に応じて削除

CEMS(需給調整)

4%
14%

7%

10%

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

CEMS(需要抑制)

未利用熱利用14%

未利用熱利用

熱電併給

11%

駅名は必要に応じて削除

CEMS(需給調整)

CEMS(需要抑制)

1%

熱電併給

対策後排出量

対策後排出量71%68%

排出量：37,816 (tCO2)
削減量：10,832 (tCO2)(削減率 29%)

排出量：8,651 (tCO2)
削減量：8,018 (tCO2)(削減率 93%)

Simulation of Energy Management

Locational Planning on Energy Infrastructure

Simulation Tool for Energy Demand Management

Design on Locational Planning
on Energy Infrastructure basedon Spatial Distribution ofEnergy Demands andResources.

Simulation Tool for Impacts of Energy
Management System on Demand
Reduction2

1

30分間隔の需給計画値

24:00

23:00

22:00

21:00

20:00

18:00
19:00

17:00

16:00

15:00

14:00

12:00

11:00

10:00

09:00

08:00

07:00

06:00

05:00

04:00

0

-1

03:00

割安な時間帯
にシフト

02:00

節電

3

Mwh

ピークシフト
電
力

4

01:00

ピークカット
電
力

5

13:00

Design on Energy Infrastructure33

2018/02/07

Creating City Simulation Model from Real World【評価対象地区】

⑪

⑫

⑦

⑬
⑩

⑧

⑥

④

⑤

⑨

③
①

Urban Strategy by the Government②

Modeled Urban Centers and Population
Distribution

34

2018/02/07

Results in Koriyama: Energy Service Demands• Energy service demand distributes almost in accordance withurban area.
• High energy service demands for detached house can beobserved suburbs, in contrast, that for multifamily buildings andcommercial buildings are in city centers.

CentralStationDetached House

Multifamily Buildings

Commercial Buildings

35

2018/02/07

Results in Koriyama: Feasibility of CHPs
• CHP business could be successful in the area with 7,000

person/km2 and 7,000 employees/km2.
• Only three (3) center cores can be installed CHP system.
• Center 7 and 8:

Surrounding Area of City Hall, Hospitals andShopping Centers
Surrounding Area of Central Station• Center 9:
Energy Supplied by CHPs

コジェネによる熱＋電力供給量+ Heat) (TJ)
(Electricity(TJ)

1000

2010

800

2030
2050

600
400
200

0
1

2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Numeric Number拠点番号
of Urban Centers

Amount of Energy Supplied by CHPs

36

2018/02/07

Results in Koriyama: Reduction of CO2 Emissions• Installation of PV system and CHPs leads to the reduction of

CO2 emissions in Center 7 & 8 (near City Hall) and Center 9(near Central Station).
• Energy efficient appliances and renewables are main sources of
CO2 reduction in suburb area.
2030

2050

CO22削減量
CO
Reduction[tCO[tCO2]2]

Amount of CO2 reduction by Centers37

2018/02/07

Results in Koriyama: Contribution by Measures• Total amount of CO2 reduction in 2050 is 270 ktCO2.
• 22.7% of total CO2 emissions in 2007 (1,187 ktCO2)• CO2 reduction comes from 24% of energy efficient technologies,

38% of PV and 38% of CHPs.

CO2CO2削減量[万tCO2]
Reduction [10 ktCO2]

2010

2030

2050

0

BAU2 Reduction Measures
No CO（ベースライン）単体技術 (Baseline)-5

Energy Efficient Technology
単体技術
再エネ
(PV)

-10

-15
-20

-25

拠点集約化
再エネ
単体技術

-30

集約効果
（需要削減、
事業導入）

Energy単体技術Efficient Technology＋再エネ+Renewables
Energy Efficient Technology
拠点集約+Renewables+CHPs
化シナリオ

CO2 Reduction by Measures38

2018/02/07

Current Challenge(1) : Holistic Design System for Smart City
• Three different but mutually interrelated designing methodology should be

developed.

1. Macro Design of the city

600
500

億円

Alternative future
vision・ Population, industries
・ Core developments
・ Energy locality
Vision of the City

2. Spatial Design
Land use zoning/network design

試算の結果例 (域内総生産)

700

400
300

なりゆきシナリオ
LNG立地シナリオ
産業振興シナリオ
環境産業共生シナリオ

200

100
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

▪ Land use distribution
patterns▪ Local energy network▪ Location of coredevelopments
Area Design

3. Project DesignCore projects for
Smart City

▪
▪
▪
▪

Zoning and regulation
District planning
HEMS/BEMS/CEMS
Energy grid design

植物工場

温浴施設

ガ
ス

CO 2 供給 パ
複合商業施設

ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰｾﾝ ﾀｰ
CEM S

イ
プ
ラ
イ
ン

※

発電機
蓄熱装置
戸建て住宅
Ｄ Ｒ イ ベン ト
参加状況の確認

戸建て住宅

集合住宅(寮)

新地町役場

LN G基地39

2018/02/07

National Institute forEnvironmental Studies
strives to contribute to society throughNetworking, Integrating,
Evolving and Synthesizing
environment research based on a firm
understanding of the interaction between
nature, society, and life on our planet.
Thank You for Your Kind Attention!