October 2010

Japan Center for International Exchange

Keeping the United States
Engaged in Asia
Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, JCIEThe changing balance of power in East Asia—from ColdWar bipolarity to post–Cold War unipolarity to a newpower configuration tilting toward multipolarity—has
prompted debate on the future of US engagement inAsia. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the global financial crisis have called into question the limitations ofUS power. Furthermore, the rise of China has hasteneda relative decline in US power in East Asia, allowing
China to grow in confidence and accelerating perceptions of China as a great power in the region. This has
triggered anxiety among some US allies and friends andrequires careful management to preserve the stability ofthe region.

The Relative Decline of US Power in East Asia
The growth gap

China has achieved phenomenal and rapid economic
growth since coming out of isolation and engaging withthe world economy, and it continues to grow. In contrast,
the economic situation in the United States and the otheradvanced industrialized economies has taken a hit fromthe global financial crisis. The United States is still suffering from weak economic growth rates and unemployment and faces many challenges in its path to recovery.

In terms of per capita income, China still has a long
way to go to achieve the sort of wealth enjoyed by theUnited States or Japan. The undervalued exchange rate;
widening income disparity between developed coastal
and underdeveloped rural regions; and agricultural,energy, and environmental problems all pose serious
challenges that require serious policy consideration.
Nevertheless, China has emerged from the financial
crisis in a stronger position while most of the countries of the West find themselves weakened. Chinahas started to outline a response to global imbalances,engineering a massive stimulus package to foster theexpansion of domestic demand. To some extent, theChinese economy is now beginning to shift from export-led to domestic expansion–led economic growth.
Further, China has managed to maintain impressive
economic growth over the past two years. Last month,
GDP data confirmed what economic analysts have long
and widely been predicting, that China has overtaken
Japan as the world’s second largest economy.
As a result of the damage the financial crisis has inflicted upon the developed economies and the mannerin which China has been able to sustain its economic
growth despite the crisis, a growth gap has emerged between China on the one hand and the United States,

Japan, and most other developed economies on theother. Economic forecasts predict that this growth gap
is likely only to widen in the future.

United States will not be able to commit sufficient capabilities to other areas.
At the same time, there has been a decline of theUnited States as a role model. The lack of justification
for the war in Iraq—based on inaccurate intelligence—and US torture of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay andAbu Ghraib undermine the legitimacy of US claims
to moral authority. President Obama has emphasized
multilateral diplomacy, seeking to rebuild US legitimacy damaged by overzealous unilateralism. But, as aresult of this shift, we can no longer expect any new
determined military interventions on the part of theUnited States, irrespective of their legitimacy. While
many in the international community welcome a lessmilitaristic, less unilateral United States, this changemeans that US partners must now take on a greater
share of the security burden. Without active regional
cooperation between the United States and its allies,
there is a danger that the limits of regional security will
be tested. For instance, North Korea may calculate that
the US shift away from unilateralism toward multilateral diplomacy will reduce the likelihood of military
action, giving it new confidence in negotiations.

Intraregional trade

Another significant indicator of the relative decline
in US power is the relative decline of the importanceof the United States as a trading partner for East Asia.
For instance, the United States had long been Japan’s
number one trading partner; however, this title has
clearly shifted to China. For other nations in East
Asia as well, such as South Korea and the membersof ASEAN, China has become the largest trading
partner. This is not to argue that the United States isnot still a highly important trading partner for East
Asia. However, given the increase in East Asian intraregional trade, the United States has lost ground in
relative terms.

Rising anxiety and regional security

From a security viewpoint, the United States maintains
an overwhelming military force that is second to nonein terms of size and capability. However, with its rapid
economic growth, China has been able to steadily
increase its own military capabilities. The People’sLiberation Army, once considered a primarily landbased military, has steadily expanded its naval capabilities. More recently, with growing confidence, China
has defined the South China Sea as a “core national interest” and has undertaken more visible activities in theSouth and East China Seas. The recent Senkaku Islands
incident between Japan and China demonstrates once
again China’s rigid manner of conduct, imposing a wide
range of swift unilateral measures without attempting
adequate communication with Japan. This issue, andJapan-China relations more broadly, requires carefulanalysis and will be examined in the next issue of East
Asia Insights.
Meanwhile, the United States has indeed been
forced to re-examine its global military strategy amidst
doubts that it can continue overstretching its militarycommitments around the globe, simultaneously fighting multiple wars. With tensions rising in the Greater
Middle East, especially regarding allegations of nuclear
weapons production in Iran, analysts predict that theEAST ASIA INSIGHTS

US-Japan allianceWith regards to the US-Japan alliance, timely US statements that the Senkaku Islands are covered under thescope of the US-Japan treaty were helpful in demonstrating the strength of the alliance. Nevertheless, it isimportant not to underestimate the current stagnation
resulting from the Futenma base debacle. The USJapan alliance has been a cornerstone of US strategy
in East Asia. Not only has Japan benefited enormously
from the US security guarantee, it has also been a reliable provider of military bases to the United States,
and this stability has benefited the US forward deployment strategy as well. However, the diplomatic messsurrounding Futenma has shaken the alliance. This is
to a considerable extent due to the change of government in Japan, its new foreign policy orientation, andformer Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s mishandlingof the issue.
Irrespective of where blame lies, the United States
must still suffer the consequences. Already, there havebeen growing perceptions among US allies and friends
2October 2010

around the region, such as ASEAN countries, Australia,
and South Korea, that the weakening of the US-Japan
alliance may have significant ramifications for security
in East Asia. It remains to be seen if this situation will
improve now that Kan is more secure in his position as
prime minister.

East, and multiple cancelled US presidential trips all
paint a picture of an unclear US political agenda visà-vis East Asia at a time when clarity is needed. As a
global leader, the United States has an important roleto play in East Asia. This does not mean going back toa Bush administration–style unilateral foreign policy.
Rather, the United States must establish a clear vision
for how it will engage in an East Asia that includes amore militarily confident and capable China.

Reactions from around Asia

In South Korea, there has been a remarkable shift since
the Lee Myung-bak administration took office. It has
clearly moved to strengthen the US-ROK alliance andearned a reputation as a trustworthy ally. The UnitedStates has responded positively to these overtures. Forinstance, with the rising tensions on the peninsula surrounding the sinking of the Cheonan, the Obama administration has fully backed the South and sent UStroops to conduct joint military exercises.
The decision by ASEAN to invite the United Statesand Russia to join the East Asia Summit (EAS) should
be seen as a policy move to balance against China’s
expanding strength by reinforcing the US presence inthe region. Vietnam, while careful about managing
its relations with China, has also consciously moved
closer to the United States, seeking to strengthen andexpand ties and find a balance between these twopowers. India too, wary of China’s rising militarypower, has sought to strengthen its strategic relationship with the United States. The two countries agreed
to the US-India Civil Nuclear Deal, representing a
positive step forward in relations.
These sporadic moves indicate an uneasiness in theregion regarding China’s military rise and the changing
balance of power and they reflect a degree of support
for ensuring a continued US presence in some form.
However, given the current trajectory, there is still along way for the United States to go to preserve itsstrength in East Asia.

Managing relations with China

The central question for all partners in the region is
how to deal with China. Dealing with China will require a new strategic orientation, and countries in Asia
cannot fall back on Cold War–era policies. China is not
the Soviet Union and containment is not a feasible option. Any country seeking to foster a prosperous andpeaceful region must realize that interdependence withChina is inevitable. Cultivating such interdependence
requires bringing China into the fold of the international system as a responsible stakeholder in such amanner that it will follow international norms of openness. Given the vast political differences between China
and the United States and its democratic allies, this isbound to be a complicated process requiring new rules
to dictate predictable terms of engagement.
Concurrently, effective deterrence against China’s
potential to destabilize the region needs to be preserved, but the United States can no longer credibly
maintain such deterrence alone. Strategic relations between the United States and its partners in the region,such as Japan, Korea, Australia, India, Indonesia, andVietnam, need to be strengthened in a manner thatguards against unpredictability but also in a way that is
not perceived by China as containing or threatening.

New Asian security architecture

To this end, the creation of a new security architecture is crucial. This security architecture should include four layers: The first layer, which serves as thefoundation, involves bilateral alliances such as the USJapan, US-ROK, and US-Australia alliances. The second layer includes trilateral forums, initially focusedon confidence-building measures, such as the various
arrangements among the United States, Japan, SouthKeeping the United States Engaged
Given this changing balance of power, people in theregion need to see that the United States has a clear
vision for its role in East Asia. The relative decline inUS power and its inability to continue to fight simultaneous wars, repeated statements declaring the importance of the United States’ commitments in the Middle
EAST ASIA INSIGHTS

3October 2010

Korea, and China. The third layer consists of subregional arrangements, most prominently ASEAN and apotential successor to the Six-Party Talks in NortheastAsia. Finally, the fourth layer should include an inclusive regionwide institution with participation fromat least all of the EAS nations, including new invitees
the United States and Russia. It should have a broadreaching mandate to effectively deal with a range of
nontraditional security challenges, such as disaster
relief, terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons ofmass destruction.

The report of the Council on Security and Defense
Capabilities in the New Era, released in August, makes
recommendations for the new National Defense
Program Outline (NDPO). The Kan government has
indicated that it will use the report’s recommendationsas a point of reference, finalizing the NDPO by the endof the year. Given the recent change of government andthe recent leadership challenge that almost toppled theprime minister, however, it would be wise to delay thisprocess. President Obama’s trip to Japan in November
would make a convenient kickoff point for a broader
consultation between Japan and the United States,
which could involve the launch of a joint task force orwisemen’s group on East Asian security and the roleof the US-Japan alliance. Consultations between Japanand the United States and Japan’s own defense policy
review need to take place simultaneously, and bothcountries need make sure that tensions over Futenma
are addressed in the broader security discussion.

Shoring up the US-Japan alliance

Before countries active in the region can start to build thissecurity architecture, the current stagnation of the USJapan alliance needs to be addressed urgently. Taking astep back from the difficulties surrounding the relocationof Marine Air Base Futenma, a new approach is neededin considering the alliance from a broader perspective.
Given local opposition in Okinawa to the relocation plan,
the hasty and forcible implementation of the May agreement goes against sustainable alliance relations and will
not result in a satisfactory outcome for the United States,
Japan, or the local residents of Okinawa.
There needs to be a more comprehensive consideration of how the alliance should function given
the changing realities of the region. Domestically, theJapanese government needs to rebuild the foundationsof its security policy and reconsider a number of policy
issues. For instance, questions of collective self-defense
under Article 9, Japan’s nuclear policy, and the defense
structure need to be addressed and may require newlaws. There is also a need for public participation inthis debate so as to foster a greater understanding
among ordinary citizens about the current security circumstances and future prospects of East Asia. Without
broad understanding, it will be difficult to gain popularsupport for necessary changes.

◆ ◆ ◆Despite the changing economic and security environment in East Asia, the United States and Japan havean important role to play together to ensure that theregion adapts in a peaceful and prosperous manner.
Some countries in the region have already begun toadjust their relationships with the United States, but
we need to step back and look at those relationships
in the broader regional context. A new approach to relations in the region, including the establishment of afour-layered security architecture, is needed, but thisfirst requires that the United States and Japan redefine
their visions for the region and ensure that their own
bilateral alliance is robust and dynamic and reflects thestate of the world today.
Hitoshi Tanaka is a senior fellow at JCIE. He ­previously
served as Japan’s deputy minister for foreign affairs.

East Asia Insights
East Asia Insights is an occasional newsletter focusing on East Asia community building
from the Japanese perspective.
Published by: Tadashi Yamamoto, President, JCIE
Please direct any comments or questions to eainsights@jcie.or.jp.
Japan Center for International Exchange
www.jcie.or.jp

EAST ASIA INSIGHTS

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October 2010