October 2011

Japan Center for International Exchange

Prime Minister Noda andFixing the Futenma Impasse
Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, JCIE

Just a few weeks after taking office in early September,
Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, had his
first meeting with US President Barack Obama in New
York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It waswidely reported that first and foremost on the agenda
for this meeting was the relocation of the Marine Corps
Air Station Futenma, with President Obama deliveringa stern message that the time has come for results.
Just how stern President Obama’s message to Prime
Minister Noda was has been the subject of speculation,
as his words were relayed to the media through aides
and spokespersons. Nevertheless, an atmosphere ofimpatience seems to have built in the United Statesover the Futenma relocation. Indeed, as Japan’s merrygo-round of prime ministers continues to spin (Nodais the fourth Japanese prime minister during Obama’spresidency), little to no progress has been made on
the issue. In Japan there is an expectation that thecurrent agreement—confirmed between successive
governments of the ruling Democratic Party of Japanand the Obama administration—should be honored, despite it essentially being a carbon copy of an

earlier agreement made in 2006 under Japan’s Liberal
Democratic Party. And with another sideline meeting
between Prime Minister Noda and President Obama inthe cards at the APEC leaders’ summit next month in
Honolulu, there is an expectation that some progress,
even if only symbolic, should be made to demonstratethat things are moving forward.

Feasibility of the Current Plan
There is a serious danger right now that expectations
will be raised and we will be disappointed once again,
renewing strains in the US-Japan alliance. But forcing
the implementation of the current plan—which would
see Futenma relocated farther north on Okinawa’s mainisland to Henoko Bay near the town of Nago—appears
infeasible given the significant changes that have takenplace in political conditions in both Japan and theUnited States.
In Okinawa, local opposition to the Henoko plan
has greatly intensified. Since I was personally involved in the original relocation negotiations beginning in 1996, I have frequently travelled to Okinawa

and I have been able to witness first-hand the changein people’s sentiment. The intensification of the local
opposition was given renewed vigor due to former
Prime Minister Hatoyama’s mishandling of the issue.
His flip-flopping on the idea of relocating Futenma
outside of Okinawa Prefecture greatly raised local expectations that Okinawa’s excessive basing burdens
might be decreased.
The vigorous opposition movement has also skillfully mobilized protesters. They bring their protest to
the relocation site in Henoko Bay itself and strategically place elderly protesters in the front lines. This
makes it difficult for the police to disperse protesters,
and efforts to do so forcefully would risk bloodshed
and possibly jeopardize sustainable alliance relations.
Another complicating issue is the central government’s need to obtain approval from the Okinawa
governor’s office in order to construct landfill runways across the waters of Henoko Bay. Current
Governor Hirokazu Nakaima campaigned on a platform of consulting with local residents on the issue.
In a speech at George Washington University justdays before Prime Minister Noda met with President
Obama, Governor Nakaima stated that if the US andJapanese governments choose to force the implementation of the current relocation plan it will cause
an irreparable rift between the people of Okinawa
and the US Forces in the prefecture and adversely
affect the US-Japan alliance. Further, the current
mayor of Nago City, Susume Inamine, was elected
on a platform of opposing the relocation of Futenma
to Henoko, meaning it looks highly unlikely that thecentral government will be able to acquire local agreement, which in turn means that Governor Nakaima’spermission will likely not be forthcoming.
In the United States, too, there have been changes inconditions that call into question the feasibility of thecurrent relocation plan. The global financial crisis, andmore recently the kerfuffle over the deal to raise thedebt ceiling, demonstrate that serious reductions areneeded in the US budget. While some modest military
budget cuts have already been announced, this may
be only the tip of the iceberg, and the United States
may have to review its global military posture if it isto bring its current military spending to sustainable
EAST ASIA INSIGHTSlevels. It would be reckless of the United States to insist
that Japan implement a Futenma replacement facility
plan without ensuring that it also has the means within
its own budget to follow through, and it would be tremendously damaging to the alliance, especially in lightof how much tension Futenma has already caused.
Amid the economic turmoil, tensions over the current
military spending levels have already begun to emerge
between Congress and the Obama administration.
Senators Carl Levin, Jim Webb, and John McCain haverecommended that the Department of Defense revisit
the option of integrating Futenma’s functions into theKadena Air Base to keep costs down. However, theDepartment of Defense has historically opposed suchintegration of forces. The current standoff is becoming
a game of chicken as the Obama administration has
not shown signs of accepting Congress’s proposals andinstead looks more likely to try and shift the burden for
resolving the problem onto the government of Japan.

Finding a New Way Forward
While neither the US nor the Japanese government cares to admit it, local opposition to the current Henoko plan effectively means the situation hasreached an impasse. Imposing the current plan upon
the people of Nago will have severely negative consequences for the US-Japan alliance. On the other hand,
if the current relocation plan is not implemented andFutenma continues its status quo ante operations, there
is a risk that one major accident at or around the basewill cause tensions to spill over and fatally damage thealliance. In either scenario, Futenma will become moresignificant, making it a stumbling block for the whole
alliance. This is a harmful way to frame alliance relations. Rather than building the Futenma relocation up
again into a big unresolvable issue that will continue toburden the alliance, what is needed now is open mindedness and a process that allows for a soft landing.
To ensure such a process, both governments needto sit down together, review the changes in conditions
that have taken place, and formulate a plan that isacceptable to both governments and to the people ofOkinawa. Until the time that Futenma can be returnedto the people of Okinawa, it is clear that Futenma’sfunctions need to be gradually reduced sooner2October 2011rather than later. Other sites (such as Kadena, areasof Japan outside Okinawa, and areas outside Japansuch as Guam and Hawaii) need to gradually assume
Futenma’s functions. Futenma should be made into
the least busy military airport in Japan, reducing therisk of an accident occurring in the heavily urbanizedresidential areas that immediately surround the base.
But at the same time it needs to be kept open—onstandby—for contingency planning purposes, andthe base’s landowners need to continue to be able tocollect rent in exchange for the lease.
Moreover, rather than fixating on Futenma, US-Japan
alliance relations should be re-framed to give greater
importance to a broader range of topics. We need afuture-oriented plan that maps the way forward for thealliance while taking into consideration the changing
security dynamics in the region and China’s growing
military capabilities. To adapt to the rise of China, sucha plan needs to include ­confidence-building measuresvis-à-vis China, establish inclusive mechanisms that allow for greater US-Japan cooperation with China, andcreate a legal framework for increasing the Japan SelfDefense Force’s military role. A wisemen’s commission, including government officials, politicians, public
intellectuals, and business leaders from both countries,
should be established to allow for the deepest and bestexpert consideration of the issues at stake.
◆ ◆ ◆US-Japan relations can no longer be held hostage to thedebate over the relocation of Futenma, and the issue
needs to be resolved before it causes irreparable damage
to alliance relations. But both the US and the Japanese
governments need to be pragmatic in their search for asolution, one that takes into account the major shifts inthe political and financial environment since the existing relocation plan was first agreed upon.
Hitoshi Tanaka is a senior fellow at JCIE and chairmanof the Institute for International Strategy at the Japan
Research Institute. He ­previously served as Japan’s deputy minister for ­foreign affairs.

East Asia Insights
East Asia Insights is an occasional newsletter focusing on East Asia community building
from the Japanese perspective.
Published by: Tadashi Yamamoto, President, JCIE
Please direct any comments or questions to eainsights@jcie.or.jp.
Japan Center for International Exchange
www.jcie.or.jp

EAST ASIA INSIGHTS

Japan Center for International Exchange, Inc. (JCIE/USA)
www.jcie.org

3© 2011 Japan Center for International Exchange

October 2011