1ASIAN DISASTER REDUCTION CENTER
VISITINGRESEARCHERFY 2012A(AUGUST-NOVEMBER 2012)

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION.
CURRENT SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT.
ANOMALOUS RADON CONCENTRATION AS AN EARTHQUAKE-PRECURSOR.

Armine Khangaldyan
Principal specialist,
Department of Observation Network
and Information Analysis“National Survey for Seismic Protection” Agency
Ministry of Emergency Situations, Republic of Armenia

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Disclaimer

This report was compiled by an ADRC visiting researcher (VR) from ADRC member countries.
The views expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the ADRC. The boundaries
and names shown and the designations used on the maps in the report also do not imply official
endorsement or acceptance by the ADRC.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the governments of both Japan and Armenia in
giving me the tremendous opportunity to participate in this program.
Especially my thanks and best regards to all of those who devoted their time and efforts to
education and training in the field of disaster management.
I am also thankful to Armenian NSSP administrative group, who recommended me to join the
program of ADRC Visiting Researcher FY 2012A.
And finally, I would like to express my appreciation to the ADRC staff, who made my time in Japanan experience that has far surpassed my every expectation.

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CONTENTS

1. GENERAL INFORMATION Republic of Armenia …………………………………………………………………………..

5

 Japan ……………………………………………………………………………………………

7

2. DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IN ARMENIA Natural Hazards Likely to Affect the Country…………………………………………………

9

 Recent Major Disasters in Armenia……………………………………………………………

10 National Survey for Seismic Protection (Armenian NSSP) at the Ministry of Emergency
Situations of the Republic of Armenia (MES of RA) …………………………………………

11

 The Legal Authority in Seismic Risk Reduction ……………………………………………..

13

Disaster Management Strategy based on the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA)………

14

Disaster Education and Human Resource Development: Current Situation of theTraining and Disaster Education in RA………………………………………………………



Recent Major Project on Seismic Risk Reduction…………………………………………...

16
20

3. THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN JAPANThe Natural Hazards (Earthquakes) in Japan………………………………………………

21



The Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan……………………………………………………….

23



Laws and Legal System of DM in Japan……………………………………………………..

24

 Main Activities of ADRC…………………………………………………………………………

26

4. RESULT OF THE RESEARCH

Current Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Prediction in Armenia…………..

27

 Future Mega-earthquake Risk and preparedness in Japan…………………………………

30

 Anomalous radon concentration as an earthquake-precursor (Japanese experience) …

33 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………….

36

 References………………………………………………………………………………………..

37

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1. GENERAL INFORMATION

Republic of Armenia

Official name

Republic of Armenia (RA), briefly – Armenia.
(Armenian: Հայաստանի Հանրապետություն)Location

South Caucasus region of Eurasia, at the crossroads of Western Asia andEastern Europe

National flag

Red-Armenian
Armenian Highlands, Armenians’ incessant struggle for survival,
Christian faith, liberty and independence.
Navy-- the aspiration of the Armenian nation to live under the peaceful sky.
Orange the talent for creative work and diligence of the Armenian people.
Orange-Coat of arms

Name in official
language
Head of theState
Legislative
power
Official language

Hayastani Hanrapetutyun, briefly - Hayastan

President

one-chamberchamber National Assembly
Armenian (is part of Indo-European
Indo European family of languages)
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CapitalAdministrative
and territorial unit
National
currency
Territory

YerevanMarz (11 Marzes in all including Yerevan city)

Dram (international currency code - AMD)29.74 thousand square km (about 1/13 the territory of Japan)
north- Georgia

Neighbouring
countries

south- Iraneast- Azerbaijan
south-west- Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan)
west- Turkey

Averageelevation above sea

1800 mlevel
The highest
peak
The lowest
altitude
The greatest
extentAragats mountain - 4090 m

Debed river canyon - 380 m

365 kmRegionnorth latitudes of subtropics

Climatedry, continental

Averagetemperature
Time zone

in January - -6.8°C, in July - +20.8°C
Greenwich mean time + 4 hours

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Japan
Official NameJapan (Japanese:

日 本 Nihon or Nippon; formally 日 本 国

NipponNippon-koku
or Nihon-koku,
koku, literally the State of Japan)
Location:

Eastern Asia, island chain between the North Pacific Ocean and the
Sea of Japan, east of the Korean Peninsula
Flag

Imperial Seal

Geographic

36 00 N, 138 00 E

coordinates:
Map references:
Area:

Asia
total: 377,835 sq km
land: 374,744 sq km
water: 3,091 sq km
note: includes

Bonin

Islands(Ogasawara(Ogasawara-gunto),

Daito-shoto,

MinamiMinami-jima,
Okino-tori-shima,
shima, Ryukyu Islands (Nansei-shoto),(NanseiandVolcano Islands (Kazan-retto)(KazanArea - comparative:
Land boundaries:
Coastline:

slightly smaller than California
0 km
29,751 km

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Maritime claims:

territorial sea: 12 nm; between 3 nm and 12 nm in the internationalstraits - La Perouse or Soya, Tsugaru, Osumi, and Eastern and Western
Channels of the Korea or Tsushima Strait
contiguous zone: 24 nm
exclusive economic zone: 200 nm

Climate:varies from tropical in south to cool temperate in northTerrain:mostly rugged and mountainous

Elevation extremes:

lowest point: Hachiro-gata -4 m
highest point: Mount Fuji 3,776 m

Natural resources:
Land use:negligible mineral resources, fisharable land: 12.19%
permanent crops: 0.96%
other: 86.85% (2001)

Irrigated land:
Natural hazards:

26,790 sq km (1998 est.)
many dormant and some active volcanoes; about 1,500 seismic
occurrences (mostly tremors) every year; tsunamis; typhoons

Environment - current

air pollution from power plant emissions results in acid rain;issues:acidification of lakes and reservoirs degrading water quality andthreatening aquatic life; Japan is one of the largest consumers of fish andtropical timber, contributing to the depletion of these resources in Asia andelsewhere

Environment -party to: Antarctic-Environmental Protocol, Antarctic-Marine Living

international agreements:

Resources, Antarctic Seals, Antarctic Treaty, Biodiversity, Climate
Change, Climate Change-Kyoto Protocol, Desertification, Endangered
Species, Environmental Modification, Hazardous Wastes, Law of the Sea,
Marine Dumping, Ozone Layer Protection, Ship Pollution, Tropical Timber
83, Tropical Timber 94, Wetlands, Whaling

Geography - note:
Time zone:

strategic location in northeast Asia
JST (UTC+9) /Summer (DST) not observed (UTC+9)

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2. DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IN ARMENIANatural Hazards Likely to Affect the Country

Armenia is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world (except the sea disasters). It is athigh risk of natural hazards, owing to high levels of exposure and vulnerability.
Meteorological disasters have become more frequent and intense in the last few decades. Floods,
mudslides, and debris flows threaten half of the country’s territory, mainly in medium-altitude
mediummountainous areas, where they typically occur once every three to ten years.
Risks associated with geophysicalgeophysical hazards are significant. The landslide hazard zone covers
one-third
third of the country, primarily in foothill and mountain areas. Ass Armenia lies in one of the mostseismically active
ive regions of the world, the earthquakes
arthquakes have affected large numbers of people andcaused significant economic losses over the past 20 years.

Earthquakes

94
4%

Mudslides,
Landslides,
rockfalls,

6%%

Floods,
Irradiation

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Recent Major Disaster in Armenia

Spitak（1988）Destructive Earthquake

December 7, 1988 at 7.41.22.7 GMT (11.41.22.7
local time). The epicenter by the records of seismographs
has the following coordinates: latitude 40.92°N, longitude
44.23°E. The depth of the hypocenter, measured byvarious methods and means, varies from 2.5km to
10-15km.
15km. It is natural as the earthquake source as a
spatial. The magnitude of the earthquake was 6.9. The
intensityattheepicenter was 10
value on MSK-64
intensity scale.

The earthquake hit 40 % of the territory of Armenia, densely
densely populated region with 1 ml people.
The affected area, where the intensity of the earthquake was > 8, involved 30002 km area. 21 towns
and 342 villages were destructed, 514.000 people
were left without shelter, 20.000 people were injured
and 12500 people
e were hospitalized. Number ofvictims was about 25.000. Particularly in Gyumri(15.000-17.000)
17.000) and in Spitak (4000) number ofvictims was more than anywhere else. 17% funds of
dwellings were destroyed, the work of 170 industrial
companies were halted, the great losses were caused
to villages and agro industrial complexes as well as tothe architectural, historical and cultural monuments,
917 public buildings were destroyed.

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The rescue activities were systemized only two or three days later. From the first second theearthquake strike, the population carried out restless rescuing works. Anyhow the absence of theirexperience and sometimes the lack of basic knowledge on actions in emergency caused realdifficulties for the efficiency of rescue operations. Even there were cases when the public
unawareness brought to life losses. Also there was a need of rescue equipment. With the efforts of
population and the rescuers 45.000 dead or alive people were brought out from the rubble and12.5000 people were hospitalized.



National Survey for Seismic Protection (Armenian NSSP) at the Ministry of Emergency
Situations of the Republic of Armenia (MES of RA)
MES of RA is a republican body of executive authority, which in line with such competences as

are vested in it by laws and other legal acts, develops, implements and coordinates RA government’s
policy in the area of civil defense and protection of the population in emergency situations.

MINISTRY of EMERGENCY SITUATIONS of ARMENIA
Rescue Service(including Crisis
Management Centerthe main body forplanning,
co-coordinating andimplementing

National Survey for
Seismic

Hydro-meteorology

Protection

and Monitoring(Armenian NSSP)State Service

National
Technical
SafetyCentermeasures related tonatural and otherforms of disasters)

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AtmosphericState ofPhenomena

Emergency

In Active

CrisisService

Management

ImpactAcademy12''NSSP'' AGENCY“Northern

SurveyFor“Southern

SurveyFor“Western

SurveySeismic Protection”

Seismic Protection” State

Seismic

State

Non-Commercial
Commercial

State

Organization

Organization

Non-Commercial

Organization

For“Eastern

Protection”

Seismic

Non-Commercial
Commercial

State

SurveyFor

Protection”
Non-Commercial

Organization

The 1988 Spitak Destructive Earthquake reveals that there is no seismic protection system at all
and the Government RA and people were helpless to withstand the disaster.
First, Armenian NSSP was founded in 1991 with the aim to organize population as well as buildings
and structures seismic protection. It takes various measures for earthquake disaster management.
management
NSSP’s main goal is seismic risk reduction in Armenia, the population residence hazard mitigationand the state economic and social loss reduction results from earthquake. It has developed twolong-term
term Strategic National Programs on seismic risk reduction in Armenia and in Yerevan city. TodayNSSP is not only a national but also a keystone international center.
The Armenian NSSP is monitoring about 40 geophysical, geochemical, hydrochemical,
electromagnetic etc. parameters through National Observation Network incorporating about 150 stations.
The monitoring systems involve in the global IRIS,
IRIS, READINESS, CTBTO and COSMOS networks whichenable to change and disseminate data on seismic hazard.
The main objectives and the aims of Armenian NSSP are as follows:

provision of seismic hazard monitoring in the territory of Armeniaassessment of the seismic hazard and seismic risk of the territories

seismic risk reductionassessment of the levels of caused seismicity

assessment of other secondary hazards connected with the seismic hazard.

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The Legal Authority in Seismic Risk Reduction
Seismic Protection activities are regulated by a number of laws and legislative acts and national

programs of the Republic of Armenia:

Law of Republic of Armenia
The Law of the Republic of Armenia on Seismic Protection

2002

Resolutions of Government
The Complex Program of Seismic Risk Reduction in the Territory of Armenia

1999

The complex program of seismic risk reduction in Yerevan city

1999

The Resolution of the Government of RA on establishment of the list of criticalimportant and general facilities in the field of seismic protection

2003

Regulation“National Survey for Seismic Protection” Agency

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2008

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Disaster Management Strategy based on the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA)Natural hazards threatening Armenia urge the need of development and strengthening of DRR
system in Armenia. This process implies involvement of all the potential of the country, which can beachieved through elaboration of Disaster Risk Reduction National Platform (DRR NP). DRR system is aframework of functions and processes with the aim to reduce population’s vulnerability to disaster risks.
It is aimed at prevention or reduction of negative impacts of hazards and contributes to sustainable
development off the society. Fund for DRR NP was established in 2010. The Head of the Board is MES
of RA. The goal of the DRR NP is to establish a multi-spectral
multi spectral mechanism with involvement of all
stakeholders.
MES of RA has established a Crisis Management Center as the main body for planning,co-coordinating
coordinating and implementing measures related to natural and other forms of disasters(complementary to a National Platform on Disaster developed in cooperation with UNDP).

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Coping with disasters globally is possible only with joint efforts and partnerships. Armenia isconsidered as a high-risk
risk country, prone to disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, hailstorms,
droughts, floods, etc.
The Government of RA recognizes thethreats to country development posed bynatural hazards. Since 1991 It has worked toaddress DRR and to increase disaster
response and recovery capacities for thesustainable development of the country.
Armenia is committed to achieving thestrategic

goals

of

the

HFA

2005
2005-2015“Building the Resilience of Nations andCommunities to Disasters” and has taken anumber of significant initiatives in this regard.
The cooperation of MES of RA withinternational organizations and local partners
proved to be successful
successf and productive over
the years. Their efforts in DRR has become apriority in Armenia, thus contributing to thesustainable development of the country. It will
be needed to mention the cooperation with
JICA, UNDP, UNISDR, BCPR, UNICEF, World Bank, Red Cross
Cross Movement and a number of partnercountries such as Sweden, Switzerland, USA, Russia, etc.
As a result of the mentioned activities, the Government of RA set DRR as a priority and the firststeps to form the DRR culture are already established in the country.
country. The best evidence of it is the factthat thanks to UNDP, Armenia became the first country in the region where by the Government’s
decision the “ARNAP’ national DRR platform was established.
Currently, the development of National DRR Strategy, as well
well as establishment of Crisis
Management Center and National Disaster Observatory are in process. Armenia has also registered a
progress in the implementation of HFA, and among the key developments towards establishment ofdecentralized DRR system has been decree of the MES on appointment of Heads of MES Regional
Representations as HFA implementation focal points at the country regional (marz) level.

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Disaster Education and Human Resource Development: Current Situation of the Training
and Disaster Education in RA

In Armenia various governmental and other organizations have been involved in DRM Education,
within the framework of the HFA. MES of RA is a executive authority, which in line with competences
vested by laws and other legal acts, develops, implements and coordinates RA government’s policy inthe area of civil defense and protection of the population in emergency situations.
The ARNAP Foundation (Disaster Risk Reduction National Platform), Crisis Management Center(CMC) and Crisis Management State Academy (CMSA) have been established for dealing with various
aspects of Disaster Risk Reduction.
National Survey for Seismic Protection of MES RA (Armenian NSSP) develops various
means for earthquake disaster management:develops the basic directions of state policy in the field of seismic protection;

provides seismic risk assessment;

coordinates activities performed in the field of seismic risk reduction in the territory of the RA;organizes preparedness and training of the population to cope with strong earthquakes;

coordinates and controls the execution of the state programs in the field of seismic risk.

Basic tasks of seismic risk reduction are:

reduction of territories vulnerability;raising population knowledge and preparedness;training of trainers in government bodies and local authorities;

creation of earthquake early warning system;

ensuring medical preparedness;organization of relief and rehabilitation of population and sustainable recovery;

The raise of knowledge and preparedness of population is provided by means of state
training system.
The state training system includes the following subsystems, which are done regularly:

training of target groups beginning from kindergartens and schools:

educational programs, methodical manuals, relevant interactive materials;

TV and radio programs, publications in mass media;social-psychological preparedness.

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The state training system ensures the reliability and availability of the given information.
The stage of recovery of a zone suffered from strong earthquake is the intermediate between thestages of an emergency seismic situation and reconstruction. The duration and the strategy of recovery
stage defined by the Government RA.
The one of the main principles of the accomplishment of recovery works is based on the creation of
the conditions for population active participation in recovery works in the disaster zone.
The purpose of aid rendering to the population and its rehabilitation is the reduction of material andpsychological losses of the state after an earthquake.
Rendering of aid to the population and its rehabilitation is a multi-stage
multi stage process: operative (first few
days), short-term
term (first month), mid-term
mid(first year) and long-termerm (more than one year).
Rendering of aid to the population and its rehabilitation are based on the following
principles:preliminary planning of works amount on rendering aid and rehabilitation before thecatastrophe and their adjustment right after thet catastrophe;

active participation of government bodies and local authorities and society.

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Current Situation of the Training and Disaster Education
The Government RA established National Strategy of DRR in RA in March 2012, which will be
implemented by the mutual efforts of the following organizations: Armenian Red Cross, Oxfam, UNICEF
and Save the Children.

The Ministries of Emergency Situations and Education and Science, ARNAP Foundation and CMSA
launched the "School Disaster Preparedness Plan" competition for secondary schools in RA in 2012.
On International Civil Protection Day of March 1, 2012 162 events have been accomplished in thecapital city of Yerevan and regions including lecturing, training and drills. Armenia collaborating
collabwith
ADRC (since 2000) and JICA (since 2007) in the frame of various
vario s projects and programs implements
the research, education and training for the DRR specialists who acquired

and sharedshar
valuable

Japanese experience.
Ministry of Science and Education
Education together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the frame
disaster risk reduction program will submit to National Assembly proposals and additions for the Law “OnPublic Education” aiming at inclusion disaster risk reduction elements in the school
scho curricula

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At present the training and disaster education are performing in the frame of HFA Framework
for Action including:Further development of population preparedness to disasters will be done in compliance withvaluable experience of Japan during and aftermath of Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake andTsunami and best practice of the recent earthquakes in Chile, New Zealand and United States andlessons learned from devastating earthquakes in Kashmir, China and Haiti.
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Recent Major Projectt on Seismic Risk Reduction"Seismic Risk Assessment and Risk Management Planning Project" in Armenia:
The Real Time Seismic Intensity Display System (JointMES of RA-Japan
RAInternational

Cooperation Agency (JICA) project)

Based on Japanese earthquake
earthquake experiences, JICA has been supporting Armenian earthquake
disaster prevention through "Seismic Risk Assessment and Risk Management Planning Project" byutilizing Japanese technology.
The main goal of "Seismic Risk Assessment and Risk Management Planning Project" is to reduce
vulnerability to large-scale
scale earthquakes in the capital city of Yerevan, where a third of the country's
population is concentrated, by providing assistance in preparing risk management plans which cover all
viewpoints surrounding disaster
aster management cycle from prevention, emergency response torecovery/reconstruction. Real Time Information System on Seismic Intensity was installed at the Crisis
Management Center of MES which aims:
aims to promote disaster prevention actions of the citizens throughpublicity of disaster information and to raise public awareness towards disaster prevention. The project
also focuses on awareness raising activities for citizens. The project time period is 2010-2012.
2010
However,plans to introduce a similar system in other large cities of Armenia as well.

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THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN JAPANThe Natural Hazards (Earthquakes) in Japan
Japan has trouble with many different natural disasters, and the most common ones:

Earthquakes

Japan is on a subduction zone, which is where one plate is being forced beneath another. It is also
at the meeting point of 2 pieces of the giant Pacific plate, which are moving
moving in different directions
alongside each other. Japan can have up to 5000 earthquakes each year.

Volcanoes
Japan has about 1/10 of the worlds active volcanoes andhundreds of inactive
ctive volcanoes. Mount Fuji is the highest
mountain and is still active as are Asama, Aso, Banai,
Miharaand and Sakurajima. There are actually more than 40
active volcanoes out of a told of 180.
Because of the potential dangers of volcanic eruption, theJMA monitors the activity of these volcanoes closely.
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Tsunamis

When large earthquakes occur in ocean areas, the sea floor rises or sinks. Accordingly, massive
amounts of water on the sea floor also move up or down, and this movement spreads out in all directionsin the ocean. The resulting waves are called tsunamis. Tsunami waves become slower as the sea
becomes shallower. As a result, trailing waves catch up with those ahead near
ne the coast, and thetsunami grows much higher. Even if a tsunami does not seem very high in offshore areas, it can turn into
a big wave near the coast.
Typhoons

Typhoons in Japan come in August, when it hits the heavy rain season. Typhoons can bring windand rain that causes much damage, including landslides and floods.

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The Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan

Japan's swift and effective response is a clear reflection of the focused preparations the country has
made in disaster preparedness, especially since the Kobe earthquake in 1995.
Japan has invested heavily in DRR,
strengthening the seismic performance ofbuildings and of national and local response
capacities and warning systems.
syst
While theloss of life and damage have been
devastating, they would have been far
worse

withouttheriskmanagement

investments made over the last several
decades. In this regard, Japan can serve as
an example for around the world.
Japan shows the value
va
of early warning
systems and evacuation plans and drills for
reducing loss of life and injury.

The Government
overnment has opened shelters across many parts of Japan (for Hyogo PrefecturePrefecture Miki
Earthquake Disaster Memorial Park (202ha)).
Japan's DRR effortss were quite successful in limiting damage and loss of life from the Great East
Japan Earthquake (03.2011). Prompt evacuation alerts saved many residents, but the unexpected scaleof the tsunami, triggered by an unprecedented earthquake (magnitude 9.0), destroyeddethe north-westpart of the country. Dealing with these issues requires systems that are flexible and ready to be appliedin a wide variety of potential scenarios. This is a challenge Japan - along with the world.
Japan has a world leader in DRM systems.
systems. It also is a leader in helping other countries
address these critical needs.
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Laws and Legal System of DM in JapanThe Basic Disaster Management Plan is the master plan and the basis for DRM activities in Japan.
DM system in the country has been developed and strengthened following the bitter experiences oflarge-scale disasters and accidents.

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Main Activities of ADRC

 Information Sharing on DRR and Supporting application of technologies and tools
ADRC provides information on the latest disasters
disasters both in Asia and all other part of the world,
disaster prevention of the member countries, like Armenia, China, Kirgizstan, Yemen etc, and theadvisor countries, good practices for disaster risk reduction and other related information.
Main Contents
ts of Country Reports are: Natural Hazards affected the country;
country DM plan and system;
Budget size on national level;; Progress and situations of the HFA; ADRC Counterpart.
Counterpart
Also, as a new initiative, ADRC in cooperaion with UN-OCHA
OCHA (Kobe), has proposed a globallycommon, unique identification format for disaster events, as a tool for facilitating the sharing ofdisaster information around the world.
Sentinel Asia' Project established for DRM system in Asia, using earth satellites (2006). ADRC
receives emergency
gency observation requests from the member countries and other organizations which
participate in collaborative projects. And the part of this project the 'Disaster Management Support
System' offers maps and satellite images, as well as disaster information
information in the Asia Pacific region.
ADRC convenes an annual international conference participated by disaster officials from themember countries and disaster experts from international organizations to promote information
sharing, exchange opinions, and enhance partnerships among participating countries andorganizations. ACDR 2013 follows up the progress made towards the implementation of the HFA and
identify the common tasks toward post-HFA
post HFA in the Asian region. It also provides an opportunity to
discuss the future activities.


Human Resources Development
ADRC organizes and conducts various conferences, workshops and trainings for enhancing thehuman

resources

capabilityofpursuing

effective DRM in member countries.
Each year, ADRC invites four officials incharge of DM from member countries asvisiting researchers (term Basically 6 months
but 3 months can be acceptable).
acceptable The VRs areprovidedwithopportunities

todiscuss

challenges for DM of each country, enhance
understanding
erstanding of the DM system, lessons fromthe latest disasters, DRR and international
cooperation in Japan.
 Building Communities Capabilities
ADRC undertakes various efforts including increasing public awareness of DRM, development anddissemination of tools
ools for reducting vulnerability of communities. In Armenia ADRC has planed
Program for Enhancement of Disaster Education Programs in Schools.
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4. RESULT OF THE RESEARCH

Current Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Prediction in Armenia
Armenia is located in the Alpine-Himalayan
Alpineand Balkan-Carpathian
Carpathian seismic belts, a high seismic

hazard zone.
Seismic hazard refers to the study of
expected earthquake ground motions at theearth's surface, and its likely effects on
existing natural conditions
conditand man-madestructures for public safety considerations.
One of the Seismic hazard assessment
elements is the primary seismic hazard
assessment,

which

includescurrent

assessment (short--term) of seismic hazard(CSHA).
CSHA in Armenia enable the NSSP.
CSHA is the prediction with the definedprobability of place, magnitude and time ofpossible strong earthquake.
For seismic monitoring and CSHA in the territory of Armenia the national multiparameter network ofseismic observation operates. The network consists of national and international observation stations,which are included in a world global network. At seismic
stationsaredirectly

implementedround
round-the-clock

multiparameter observations and the received results aretransmitted
mitted to the data acquisition center of plenipotentiary
body, where they are collected in unified databank.
The CSHA includes:
Definition of probabilities of current anomalies'
seismic realization based on testing of strong
regional earthquakes (M≥6.0)(M
and local notableearthquakes (M≥3.7)
3.7) and monitoring time periodhistory analysis using “SeisHelp” (Monitored thetime series, the anomalies are selected visually);
visually)

for seismogene anomalies using “Dynamic Fields”;
probability evaluation;of the site, timee and magnitude of expected earthquake using “Expert” programs;



Evaluation of crust stress based on monitoring data;Complex evaluation of CSH based on operative complex map using seismotectonic data andseismic hazart map of RA
R territory.
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In case of prediction of strong earthquake in the
territory of Armenia and adjacent areas the Expert of
the Armenian NSSP for prediction confirmation has
being

immediately

conveyed

early

non
non-urgent

actions are being undertaken after based on thedecision of the analysis,sis, information, in order,
established by a plenipotentiary bodies.
Beforeexpectedearthquake,

in

case

of

emergency declaring the Armenian NSSP acts
according to the relevant approved documents.
After occurred earthquake the main earthquake
parameters arere defined and the first preliminary
announcement is being made, and after main
parameters adjusting, the final announcement isbeing made.
After occurred earthquake, in case of emergency declaration the actions are being undertaken
according to the relevant
ant approved documents.
Anomalous radon concentration as an earthquake-precursor
earthquake(Armenian
n experience)
Preparation of a strong seismic event is known to be associated with an accumulation of gigantic
elastic strain energy in the medium. In Armenian NSSP isobserved Radon concentration:•inmineralwater(imp/min),whichincludesHydrogeochemical READINESS network;
network•in subsoil (imp/min)

So based on the retrospective analysis of practically all
seismic events which had occurred 1983-2002
1983
in Armenia andadjacent territories are systematically tested and based theCatalogu
eofprecurso
ryanomalies. It was supplemented few times, andtheanomalies

includedwere

criticallyoverestimated and sometimes rejected. Naturally,
the Catalogue will be supplemented with the testsof future strong regional and perceptible local
earthquakes. The Catalogue is in daily use at the
Armenianrmenian NSSP for CSHA.
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The examples, in particular, the imposing of precursory anomalies of different order, as well as thepresence of pre-, co-, post-seismic
seismic periods in observed.
observed

For the resent seismic events inthe adjacent territories (M=6.4;6.3,(
in2012, Iran),, (M=4.2, Turkey)
In subsoil Rn gas concentration
probably-seismogenic
seismogenic

short-term

anomalies at the Garni (operative),
Qajaran and Stepanakert stations.
stations

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VISITING RESEARCHER FY2012A

30


Future Mega-earthquake
earthquake Risk and preparedness in Japan The Nankai megathrustthrust earthquakes
The Nankai megaearthquakes
earthquakes are great earthquakes that occur along the fault that forms the plateinterface between the subducting Philippine Sea Plate and the overriding Amurian Plate (part of theEurasian Plate), which dips beneath southwestern Honshu, Japan. All of these great earthquakes havegiven rise to damaging tsunami.

The northeastern mostt part of the megathrust (Tokai) has not ruptured since 1854. A future greatearthquake involving rupture along this and possibly other segments has been proposed as a major risk
for the southern coast of Honshu. In 1999, the likelihood of the occurrence ofof a great earthquake in the
Tokai area in the period 2000-20102010 was estimated to be in the range of 0.35.–0.45.
0.35.
The earthquake
repeat intervals are generally in the range 90–200
90
years.

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Seismic monitoring in Japan

Located in one of the most active seismic and volcanic zones in the world, Japan is frequently
affected by earthquakes. JMA operationally monitors seismic activity throughout the country and issues
relevant warnings and information to mitigate
damage caused by disasters related toearthquakes.
To monitor earthquakes, JMA operates
an earthquake observation network comprisedof about 200 seismographs and 600 seismic
intensity meters. It also collects data from over
3,600 seismic intensity meters managed by
local governments and the National Research
ResearInstitute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention (NIED). The data collected are
input

to

Observation

theEarthquake

SystemPhenomena(EPOS)

attheheadquarters in Tokyo and the Osaka District
Meteorological Observatory on a real-timerealbasis.
When an earthquake occurs, JMA immediately issues information on its hypocenter, magnitude
and observed seismic intensity. If the seismic
intensity is 3 or greater, the Agency issues a
Seismic Intensity Information report within 1.5
minutes.
To process data forr earthquake predictions,
three centers for different disciplines were set
up: in the Geographical Survey Institute, theJapan

Meteorological

Agency,andtheEarthquake Research Institute (University ofTokyo). A newly established committee, called
the Coordinating
rdinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction,

which

consists

of

about

30

specialists, analyzes the data flowing into
these three channels. The committee issues awarning of earthquake danger, wheneverpossible.
A

tentative

strategyforachievingearthquake
e prediction is proposed. An attempt
is made to evaluate ratings of earthquake
threats on the basis of probability theory.
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Prediction of the Tokai Earthquake

A Tokai Earthquake is the only earthquake at present with a possibility of being predicted just before
it occurs. Data presumed to be effective for earthquake prediction are monitored in real-time by JMA.
Upon detecting any anomalies in the data, observation, caution and prediction information regarding anearthquake in the Tokai region will be announced. The Prime Minister will then issue a warning
declaration based on the earthquake prediction report and implement necessary measures including
establishment of the Earthquake Disaster Warning Headquarters.
The actions for the warning of Tokai earthquake are followed:

1

Information

2

Explanation

3

Actions recommended or requiredfordisasterprevention

when

the

information is issued
5

1. A small anomaly is observed that is

insufficient to be interpreted as being
directly related to the occurrence of the
4

Tokai

Tokai Earthquake.

6

Attention should be paid to TV/radio

Earthquake

2. A number of anomalies are observed information.

Reportthat are interpreted as being irrelevant to required.

No

furtheractionisthe occurrence of the Tokai Earthquake(i.e. indicating

no

risk

of

such

an

earthquake).
7

Tokai

Earthquake
Advisory

8

A number of anomalies are observed 9Attention should be paid to TV/radiothat are interpreted as indicating an information. Follow notifications from theincreasing

possibility

of

the

Tokai government

Earthquake occurring.

and

the

disastermanagement plan of local governments.
12 Attention should be paid to TV/radio

10 Tokai

11 Anomalies are observed that are information. Act on warning statements

Earthquake

interpreted

Warning

Earthquake is expected to occur.

asindicating

theTokai from the Prime Minister and the disastermanagement

plans

of

local

governments.
If observed anomalies are judged as being irrelevant to the occurrence of the Tokai Earthquake, theinformation is canceled.

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Anomalous radon concentration as an earthquake-precursor
earthquake precursor (Japanese experience)
The relationship between radon anomaly and earthquakes has been studied for more than 30 years.

Most of the studies dealt with radon in soil gas or in groundwater.
Groundwater/soil/soil radon measurements for earthquake prediction began in 1970’s in Japan as well
as foreign countries. Radon
adon groundwater concentration anomalies prior to earthquakes have beenreported in various countries (the former SU, Italy) and regions.
The scientists discovered that there was a
rapid increase (several months) of radon in
groundwater, and the peak concentration
occured 10 days before Kobe earthquake(Great Hanshin-Awaji
Awaji earthquake) in 1995,
M=7.2, then returned to background levels
after the main earthquake subsided.

Depending on the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai
Izu
earthquake Precursory changes in groundwaterradon concentration, temperature, water leveland flow rate of groundwater were observed at 5
stations located in the area within 90 km fromfro
the epicenter. The patterns and occurrences ofthese changes are quite similar to each other.
The mid-term
term anomalies started from the end of
October,

1977

and

significant

short
short-term

anomalies were also observed a few days
before the main shock. Occurrences
Occurrencof thesevariations

relatedtothemovementofgroundwater coincide with those of othergeophysical phenomena.

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Contrary to soil/groundwater radon, they paid less attention to atmospheric radon before
earthquakes. However, it might be possible to detect
detect precursors in atmospheric radon before a large
earthquake.
According to the scientists, similar atmospheric anomalies have been observed a few days prior to
the earthquakes in Tashkent (1966), China (M=7.9, 2008), Italy (M=6.3, 2009).
In the Kobe Pharmaceuticalaceutical University measured athmospheric radon from 1984 to 1996 on one o
the Rokko fault lines, which was the source of the Kobe earthquake 1995.

Rnn often shows distinct anomalies preceding anearthquake Unfortunately, not always clear where orwhat to monitor, Atmospheric radon anomalies may
offer promise of integrating larger areas
Thescientists

explainthese

precursory

atmospheric events, that the air is ionized by theemission of radon and other gases from the Earth’s crust in the vicinity ofof an active fault.
While atmospheric anomalies appear to precede and coincide with earthquakes, it is still question
how accurate and reliable such measures are for predicting earthquakes. Future research is importantand compelling nature of the scientificscientific findings to improve our understanding of atmospheric changes
that precede earthquakes.

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Earthquakes that cause destruction at the surface of the earth can be detectable before they strike,unless they are:manmade;

caused by an extraterrestrial source,

too deep to be detected,

too far away from a sensor to be detected,

cloaked by a larger earthquake (inin which case; it basically is detectable since the intensity is sohigh)
The scientists recognized the significance of radon inearthquake prediction research, but recently its limitation was
also pointed out. The radon gas enters groundwater via fracturesand microfractures in the rock. Before a large earthquake
rupture, increasing stress growing up, because
becau
of manation
process in microfractures (expansion or compression). Some
researchers are looking for a better indicator for precursors;
simultaneous measurements of radon and other gasses are newtrials in recent studies.

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Conclusion
The researchs for earthquake prediction is being carried out in Japan and in Armenia.
Earthquake-proof strengthening of the structures and infrastructure, population knowledge andpreparedness, and earthquake prediction are the 3 pillars of the earthquake disaster reduction.
Extensive damage by a large earthquake is still inevitable, and a lot of lives will be saved if theearthquake is foreseen a day or even one hour before. This is why earthquake prediction is always
ranked at the top of urgent problems in all the public opinion polls.
However, till the world hasn't succeeded in predicting the earthquakes.
Only an earthquake was predicted in China in 1975, M=7.3. Local political leaders ordered
evacuations a day before the earthquake took place. This successful evacuation saved many lives. This
was the only successful evacuation before a devastating earthquake in history. In the years, months andweeks leading up to the event various phenomena were reported which could be interpreted as
precursors to an earthquake, including strange animal behavior.
An Earthquake is a vibration of the earth called a "seismic wave", generated by destruction of rocks
under the ground. Destruction here is the rapid slip motion at a fault due to the stress. Displacement of
the Nojima fault of Awaji-shima was 1 to 2 meters during the Kobe Earthquake (1995, M=7.2 ). Plate
tectonics says that the stress is caused by the jostle and slip between plates. Plates move at speeds ofcentimeters per year. Large stresses build up at plate boundaries until ruptures occur producing
earthquakes.
Plate tectonics theory which brought the earth sciences a revolution in the latter half of the twentiethcentury clarified that Earth has an approximately 100 km thick rigid surface layer which is divided into
about 10 plates that are moving with such speeds. The earthquakes of the world occur chiefly in theboundary zones of the plates. About 10% of the earthquakes of the world occur in the Japanese area
because the Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate surge to Japan and subduct under the JapaneseIslands.
Many scientists doubt that reliable and accurate earthquake predictions are even possible.
Presently, scientists are fairly good at predicting where on Earth earthquakes are likely to occur – along
the shifting boundaries of moving land plates. But the scientists couldn't determine exactly when an
earthquake is going to strike yet.
It is important the short-term prediction which requires catching short-term precursory phenomena.
The problem are both in Japan and in Armenia, that the seismic observation is not enough for thispurpose because seismographs in principle provide only information on the earthquake that has alreadyoccurred. It is therefore necessary to adopt a new strategy of encouraging observations of anomalouschanges in non-seismic phenomena, including not only crustal deformation but also underground water,
gaseous release such as radon and carbon dioxide, and terrestrial magnetism and earth currents etc.
It is important to increas amounts of data, new theories, and powerful computer programs, andscientists are using those to explore ways that earthquakes might be predicted in the future.
I certainly hope that in future we’ll be in a world where an earthquake can be anticipated andpredicted before it occurs.
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37


References•

Anomalious Radon Concetration Prior to an Earthquake. A Case on the 1995 Kobe
Earthquake, Japan Collected Papers.Y. Yasuoka, H. Nagahama, T. Ishikawa, Japan. 2010•

Radon Anomaly: A Possible Precursor of the 1978 Isu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. H. Wakita,
Y.Nakamura,K.Notsu, M.Nogushi, T.Asada. Science, Reports 1980, 1995•

http://www.adrc.asia/•

http://www.preventionweb.net•

http:/undp.org•

http://www.jica.go.jp/•

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html•

http://www.mes.am/•

http://www.nssp-gov.am/•

http://www.spyur.am/en/armenia•

http://www.gov.am/en/structure/•

http://en.wikipedia.org•

http://www.dragonstrike.com/mrk/disaster.htm•

http://geography.about.com/library/cia/blcjapan.htm•

http://www.geocities.jp/EMSEV2012/Uyeda.html•

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Haicheng_earthquake•

http://www.earthquakesignals.com/zhonghao296/A000730.html

FINAL REPORTADRC VISITING RESEARCHER FY2012A