Adaptation to
Climate Change
Yasuaki Hijioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Climate Change Strategy Collaboration Office/ Environmental Urban Systems Section,
Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchTraining Programme on Climate Change for Bhutanese Policymakers
5-9 February 2018, NIES, Tsukuba

Contents
1.

Climate Change Impact

2.

Adaptation to Climate Change

3.

Conclusion

2

Climate Change Impacts
 Effects on natural and human systems.
 In IPCC WGII AR5, the term impacts is used primarily to refer to theeffects on natural and human systems of extreme weather andclimate events and of climate change.
 Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health,ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, andinfrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes or
hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period
and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system.
 Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes. The
impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods,
droughts, and sea level rise, are a subset of impacts called physicalimpacts.
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Observed Climate Change Impacts
 In recent decades, changes in climate havecaused impacts on natural and human systems
on all continents and across the oceans.
 Impacts are due to observed climate change,irrespective of its cause, indicating thesensitivity of natural and human systems tochanging climate.

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Table SPM.A1 (Asia)

Observed impacts attributed to climate change reported in the scientific literature since the AR4
Snow & Ice,Rivers &Lakes,
Floods &Drought Permafrost degradation in Siberia, Central Asia, and Tibetan Plateau (HC, Major C from CC) Shrinking mountain glaciers across most of Asia (MC, Major C from CC)
 Changed water availability in many Chinese rivers, beyond changes due to land use (LC, Minor C from CC)
 Increased flow in several rivers due to shrinking glaciers (HC, Major C from CC)
 Earlier timing of maximum spring flood in Russian rivers (MC, Major C from CC)
 Reduced soil moisture in north-central and northeast China (1950 – 2006) (MC, Major C from CC)
 Surface water degradation in parts of Asia, beyond changes due to land use (MC, Minor C from CC)

Terrestrial
Ecosystems

 Changes in plant phenology and growth in many parts of Asia (earlier greening), particularly in the northand east (MC, Major C from CC)
 Distribution shifts of many plant and animal species upwards in elevation or polewards, particularly inthe north of Asia (MC, Major C from CC)
 Invasion of Siberian larch forests by pine and spruce during recent decades (LC, Major C from CC)
 Advance of shrubs into the Siberian tundra (HC, Major C from CC)

Coastal
Erosion& Marine
Ecosystems

 Decline in coral reefs in tropical Asian waters, beyond decline due to human impacts (HC, Major C fromCC) Northward range extension of corals in the East China Sea and western Pacific, and of a predatory fish in
the Sea of Japan (MC, Major C from CC) Shift from sardines to anchovies in the western North Pacific, beyond fluctuations due to fisheries (LC,
Major C from CC)
 Increased coastal erosion in Arctic Asia (LC, Major C from CC)

 Impacts on livelihoods of indigenous groups in Arctic Russia, beyond economic and sociopolitical changes(LC, Major C from CC)
Food Negative impacts on aggregate wheat yields in South Asia, beyond increase due to improved technology(MC, Minor C from CC)
Production& Livelihoods  Negative impacts on aggregate wheat and maize yields in China, beyond increase due to improved
technology (LC, Minor C from CC)
 Increases in a water-borne disease in Israel (LC, Minor C from CC)
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http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/pdf/wg2spm.pdf

Future Climate Change Impacts
 Climate change will amplify existing risks andcreate new risks for natural and human systems.
Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally
greater for disadvantaged people andcommunities in countries at all levels ofdevelopment.

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Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes (based on observations and models; vertical axis onleft), compared with speeds at which temperatures are projected to move across landscapes (climate velocities fortemperature; vertical axis on right). Human interventions, such as transport or habitat fragmentation, can greatly increase or
decrease speeds of movement. White boxes with black bars indicate ranges and medians of maximum movement speeds fortrees, plants, mammals, plant-feeding insects (median not estimated), and freshwater mollusks. For RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5
for 2050–2090, horizontal lines show climate velocity for the global-land-area average and for large flat regions. Species withmaximum speeds below each line are expected to be unable to track warming in the absence of human intervention.

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10Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The

figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and noadaptation cases combined. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global
mean temperatures increase by 4℃ or more. For five timeframes in the near term and long term, data (n=1090) are plottedin the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop
yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each timeframe sum to 100%.

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http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/press-events/press-kit/
Risk-Level
Very
Low

Med

Very
High

Present
Near Term (2030-2040

POLAR REGIONS

Risks for
Ecosystems

Risks for Healthand Well-Being

Unprecedented Challenges,
Especially from Rate of ChangeLong Term 2°C(2080-2100 4°C

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

NORTH AMERICA

Increased Risks
from Wildfires

Heat-Related
Human Mortality

Increased Flood Losses and Impacts

Potential for
Risk Level withAdditional
Current Adaptation
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk

EUROPE

Increased Losses andImpacts from Extreme
Heat Events

Damages from Riverand Coastal Urban Floods
Increased Water Restrictions

Increased Flood
Damage toInfrastructure ,Livelihoods,
and Settlements

ASIA
Heat-Related
Human Mortality

Increased DroughtRelated Water andFood Shortage

THE OCEAN
AFRICA

Reduced Fisheries
Catch Potential
at Low Latitudes

Compounded Stresson Water Resourcesr
CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA
Reduced Water
Availability andIncreased Flooding andLandslides
Increased Mass Coral
Bleaching and Mortality

SMALL ISLANDS
Reduced Crop Productivity
and Livelihood and Food Security

Reduced Food
Production and Quality
Coastal Inundationand Habitat Loss

Loss of Livelihoods,
Settlements,
Infrastructure,
Ecosystem Services,and Economic
Stability

Increased Risks
to Coastal
Increased Flood Damage Infrastructureand Low-Lying
to Infrastructure andEcosystems
Settlements

Vector- and WaterBorne Diseases

Vector-Borne Diseases

AUSTRALASIA
Significant Change in
Composition and Structureof Coral Reef Systems

Risks for Low-Lying
Coastal Areas

Assessment Box SPM.2 Table 1 (Asia)

Key regional risks from climate change and the potential for
reducing risks through adaptation and mitigation

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Climate Change Impact Assessment in Asia
-Executive Summary (1)Warming trends and increasing temperature extremes
have been observed across most of the Asian region
over the past century (high confidence).

Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge formost of the region as a result of increased water
demand and lack of good management (medium
confidence)

The impacts of climate change on food production andfood security in Asia will vary by region, with many
regions to experience a decline in productivity(medium confidence).
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Climate Change Impact Assessment in Asia
-Executive Summary (2)Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have
responded to recent climate change with shifts in thephenologies, growth rates, and the distributions ofplant species, and with permafrost degradation, andthe projected changes in climate during the 21st
century will increase these impacts (high confidence).

Coastal and marine systems in Asia are underincreasing stress from both climatic and non-climatic
drivers (high confidence)

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Climate Change Impact Assessment in Asia
-Executive Summary (3)Multiple stresses caused by rapid urbanization,industrialization, and economic development will becompounded by climate change (high confidence).

Extreme climate events will have an increasing impact
on human health, security, livelihoods, and poverty,
with the type and magnitude of impact varying acrossAsia (high confidence).

Studies of observed climate changes and their impacts
are still inadequate for many areas, particularly inNorth, Central, and West Asia (high confidence).
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Mitigation and Adaptation (1) Without additional mitigation efforts beyond

those in place today, and even with adaptation,
warming by the end of the 21st century will leadto high to very high risk of severe, widespreadand irreversible impacts globally.

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Mitigation and Adaptation (2)1.

Implementing GHG reductions poses substantial
technological, economic, social and institutional
challenges, which increase with delays in additional
mitigation and if key technologies are not available.

2.

Adaptation and mitigation are complementarystrategies for reducing and managing the risks ofclimate change.

3.

Inertia in many aspects of the socio-economic systemconstrains adaptation and mitigation options

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IMPACTS

CLIMATE

Vulnerability

SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways

NaturalVariability

Hazards

RISK

Anthropogenic
Climate Change

Exposure

EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change

Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions

GovernanceHazards, Vulnerability, Exposure and Risk


Hazards: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or
physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as
damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, andenvironmental resources. In the IPCC WGII AR5, the term hazard usually refers to climaterelated physical events or trends or their physical impacts.



Vulnerability: Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli
but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes
in human systems. Also referred to as spontaneous adaptation.

Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental
functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets inplaces and settings that could be adversely affected.



Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where theoutcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented asprobability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these
events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and. In
the IPCC WGII AR5, the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks of climate-change
impacts.

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IPCC WGII AR5 Video
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
https://youtu.be/jMIFBJYpSgM

12’ 04’’

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Contents
1.

Climate Change Impact

2.

Adaptation to Climate Change

3.

Conclusion

23Adaptation definition
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation:


Anticipatory adaptation: Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climatechange are observed. Also referred to as proactive adaptation.



Autonomous adaptation: Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious
response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural
systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as
spontaneous adaptation.

Planned adaptation: Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision,
based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change andthat action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.
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Contents of IPCC WGII AR4 (2007)
1. Assessment of observed changes
and responses in natural and managed
systems
2. New assessment methods and thecharacterisation of future conditions
3. Freshwater resources and their
management
4. Ecosystem, their properties, goods
and services
5. Food, fibre and forest products
6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
7. Industry, settlement and society
8. Human health
9. Africa
10. Asia

11. Australia and New Zealand
12. Europe
13. Latin America
14. North America
15. Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
16. Small islands
17. Assessment of adaptation
practices, options, constraints andcapacity
18 .Inter-relationships between
adaptation and mitigation
19. Assessing key vulnerabilities andthe risk from climate change
20. Perspectives on climate change andsustainability

25

Contents of IPCC WGII AR5 (2014)
PART A: GLOBAL AND SECTORAL ASPECTS
Context for the AR5
Ch. 1 Point of departure
Ch. 2 Foundations for decisionmaking

Natural and Managed Resources andSystems, and Their Uses

Adaptation
Ch. 14 Adaptation needs and options
Ch. 15 Adaptation planning and implementation
Ch. 16 Adaptation opportunities, constraints,
and limits
Ch. 17 Economics of adaptation

Ch. 3 Freshwater resources
Ch. 4 Terrestrial and inland water systems
Ch. 5 Coastal systems and low-lying areas
Ch. 6 Ocean systems
Ch. 7 Food production systems and foodMulti-Sector Impacts, Risks,
Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities

Ch. 8 Urban Areas
Ch. 9 Rural Areas
Ch. 10 Key economic sectors and services

PART B: REGIONAL ASPECTS

security,
Human Settlements, Industry, andInfrastructure

Human Health, Well-Being, and Security
Ch. 11 — Human healthCh. 12 — Human security
Ch. 13 — Livelihoods and poverty

Ch. 18 — Detection and attribution of observed
impacts
Ch. 19 — Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities
Ch. 20 — Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation,
mitigation, and sustainable development

Ch. 21 — Regional context

Regional Chapters
Ch. 22 Africa, Ch. 23 Europe, Ch. 24 Asia, Ch. 25
Australasia, Ch. 26 North America, Ch. 27
Central and South America, Ch. 28 Polar Regions,Ch. 29 Small Islands, Ch. 30 Open Oceans

26Adaptation Videos
Adapting to a changing climate (UNFCCC, 19’33”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGMx2xP3dcM

Climate Change Adaptation: it‘s time for decisions now (GIZ, 5’41”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO46sPwm4xk

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Climate-change adaptation as an iterative risk management
process with multiple feedbacks. People and knowledge
shape the process and its outcomes.

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Toward New Paradigm of Adaptation (1)







Adaptation is place- and context-specific, with no single
approach for reducing risks appropriate across all settings.
Adaptation planning and implementation can be enhanced
through complementary actions across levels, from individuals
to governments.
A first step towards adaptation to future climate change isreducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate
variability. Strategies include actions with co-benefits for otherobjectives.
Adaptation planning and implementation at all levels ofgovernance are contingent on societal values, objectives, andrisk perceptions. Recognition of diverse interests,
circumstances, social-cultural contexts, and expectations canbenefit decision-making processes.
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Toward New Paradigm of Adaptation (2)Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context
and the diversity of decision types, decision processes, andconstituencies.



Existing and emerging economic instruments can foster adaptationby providing incentives for anticipating and reducing impacts.

Constraints can interact to impede adaptation planning andimplementation.



Poor planning, overemphasizing short-term outcomes, or failing tosufficiently anticipate consequences can result in maladaptation.

Limited evidence indicates a gap between global adaptation needs
and the funds available for adaptation.
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Toward New Paradigm of Adaptation (3)Significant co-benefits, synergies, and trade-offs exist between
mitigation and adaptation and among different adaptation
responses; interactions occur both within and across regions.

Prospects for climate-resilient pathways for sustainable
development are related fundamentally to what the world
accomplishes with climate-change mitigation.

Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase thelikelihood of exceeding adaptation limits.

Transformations in economic, social, technological, andpolitical decisions and actions can enable climate-resilient
pathways.

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Adaptation Experience in Asia
In Asia, adaptation is being facilitated insome areas through mainstreaming
climate adaptation action into
subnational development planning,
early warning systems,
integrated water resources management,
agroforestry,
andcoastal reforestation of mangroves.
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Example of adaptation (1)Present
state
Adaptation
Dike
Climate Change
Affected bystorm surge

Prevention from
CC impacts
SLR

SLR

Dike

Current state

Dike

Current state

Adaptation option for Sea Level Rise
出典： STOP THE 温暖化 2005

33

Example of adaptation (2)- Thames Barrier -Thames Estuary 2100

34

Example of adaptation (2)ThamesBarrier
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87898&filetype=pdf

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Example of adaptation (2)ThamesBarrier
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87898&filetype=pdf

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Example of adaptation (3)- The Netherlands: movable storm surge barrierFlood risks from the Rhine river is projected to increase due to intense rains and tohave a 10% or more increased flow in 2050 than today. National Flood Risk
Management Plan in Netherlands was established to improve the safety level offlood control by securing an approximately 7,000 hectare flood control basin. In
Rotterdam, the Maeslantkering (movable storm surge barrier) was built to protect
the city from storm surges from the North Sea.

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Example of adaptation (4)- Tuvalu: mangrove forestMangroves grow in the brackish environment where the sea and river meet, andfunction as a levee to protect coastal areas from storm surges.
In the mangrove forest, both fresh and salt water creatures as well as aquatic andland creatures are creating a rich biodiversity.
Tuvalu is now facing problems of flooding caused by sea level rise, and planting
mangroves is underway on Funafala Island.

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Adaptation efforts in Japan (1)- Wakayama: “Heat-resistant” chickensBirds do not have sweat glands and have a very low tolerance for summer heat.
Poultry Research Center has experimented by feeding chickens special feeds that
contain antioxidants such as Japanese pepper seed, and found that the feeds
improve egg production while keeping the decrease in the egg laying rate, daily
egg production and egg quality
to a minimum under the stress of summer heat.

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Adaptation efforts in Japan(2)- Tohoku region: Growing temperate citrus in cold areaIn Yamagata’s cool weather, fruit trees such as apple are grown, but it is projectedthat Yamagata can grow citrus trees, which are usually grown in warmer places.
Researches found that citrus can overwinter fairly well if they were covered with
non-woven fabrics during the winter.

Since the temperature in
winter drops to around -7ºC,
the whole tree is covered bya non-woven fabric tooverwinter.

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Contents
1.

Climate Change Impact

2.

Adaptation to Climate Change

3.

Conclusion

41

Conclusion
Climate-resilient pathways are sustainabledevelopment trajectories that combine adaptationand mitigation to reduce climate change and its
impacts.
They include iterative processes to ensure that
effective risk management can be implemented
and sustained

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Thank you for your kind attention!!

Adaptation Videos
9.1 Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation (Standard YouTube License, 8’51”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Oq_Z7YoMfc

9.2 Adaptation Strategies (Standard YouTube License, 10’42”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTC11TeW4bU

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