Bhutan Carbon Neutral Scenario
Tentative Result
8 February, 2018

Yuki Ochi

E-Konzal Co. Ltd.

About Bhutan Carbon Neutral Scenario Bhutan is already carbon neutral country.
 The government of Bhutan declared that Bhutan remain carbon
neutral in future in INDC.
 However, its possibility is unclear because Bhutan’s economy israpidly growing.

 This study can help to consider how to keep carbon neutral in
Bhutan.

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Framework of the Scenario
FrameworkRegion

Bhutan Thimphu
 Rest of Bhutan (ROB)

Base year2012Target year2050

Types ofscenarios

 BaU scenario
 CM scenario

Target activities

 Energy use••••

Industry sector
Commercial sector
Residential sector
Transport sector

 Industrial processes
 AFOLU• Agriculture• Landuse

ScenariosBaU (Business as Usual) Scenario• Social and economic development based on future plan of the region• Without implementation of LCS policy in future

CM (Countermeasure) Scenario• Same assumption as BaU scenario about social and economic development• With implementation of LCS policy2

Data Preparation
 A variety of data and information of Bhutan were collected to estimate current status andfuture vision.
 We estimated regional data of Thimphu and ROB by downscaling of national statistics
when regional data is not available.
SourceDemography National Statistics Bureau (2009): Population Projections of Bhutan 2005-2030
 National Statistics Bureau (website): Dzongkhag Population Projection 2011-2015
 Gross National Happiness Commission, Bhutan (2013): Eleventh Five Year Plan National Statistics Bureau and Asian Development Bank (2012): Bhutan Living Standards Survey 2012 Report World Bank (2016): World Development Indicators

Economy National Statistics Bureau (2015): National Accounts Statistics 2015 National Statistics Bureau (2013): Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2013
 Gross National Happiness Commission, Bhutan (2013): Eleventh Five Year PlanTransport Ministry of Information and Communications: Current Status of National Transport Polices, Systems andProjects in Bhutan National Statistics Bureau (2015): Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2015

Energy National Statistics Bureau (2015): National Accounts Statistics 2015
 Department of Renewable Energy and United Nations Development Programme (2012): Bhutan Energy
Efficiency Baseline Study Final Report Ea Energy Analyses and COWI (2012): Bhutan: A national strategy and action plan for low carbon
development Final report S. Jamtsho (2015): Energy Efficiency & Conservation Initiatives in Bhutan Bhutan Statistical Services & Environmental Consultancy: Assessment of Fuel Consumption and Baseline
Health Impact Study in Bhutan

Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture & Forests (2015): Bhutan RNR Statistics 2015

Landuse Ministry of Agriculture & Forests (2015): Bhutan RNR Statistics 20153

Collected Data
Base year
BhutanFutureThimphu Population


Bhutan Population
Thimphu

Demography

 Population
 No. ofhouseholds

Economy GDP No. of firms

Transport

 No. of vehicles
 Modal share byvehicle type
 No. of Drivers
Licenses Issued

X

X

X

Agriculture Crop production
 Cultivated area

 Crop production
 Cultivated area

X

XLanduse Land area

 Land area

X

X

Energy Energy
 Electricity
consumption
consumption Power generation

X

X

 GDP growth rate
 No. of firms

XX

X: cannot find4

Population and Households
 Population of Bhutan will amount to 1 million in 2050.
 Population of Thimphu will become twice as large as that in 2014.
Population

1,000800721819897

974

400

1,038

600

ROB

400

Thimphu

2000
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

No. of households (thous.)

Population (thous.)

1,200

No. of households
325

350
300

256

250
200
150

346

205

ROB

159

Thimphu

1005002012

2020

2030

2040

2050

Reference and Assumption
2012

2050

SourceSourceAssumption National Statistics Bureau, Bhutan (2009):
Population Projections of Bhutan 2005-2030
 National Statistics Bureau, Bhutan (website):Dzongkhag Population Projection 2011-2015
 National Statistics Bureau, Bhutan and AsianDevelopment Bank (2012):
Bhutan Living Standards Survey 2012 Report Gross National HappinessCommission, Bhutan(2013):
Eleventh Five Year Plan

 Population will increase.
 Population growth rateof Thimphu continues tobe higher than ROB.
 Household sizedecreases.
5Economy GDP will grow by 5.4%/year on average in Bhutan.
 Tertiary industry leads economic growth in Thimphu.
GDP

Economic structure

800

680

GDP (bil. Nu)

700
493

500
400

310

300
100

Public services

80%

600

200

100%

1739202012 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thimphu

Other services
Hotels and restaurant

60%

Wholesale and retail

40%

Electricity and water supply

20%

Manufacture

Construction
Mining0%2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

ROB

Thimphu

Forestry
Agriculture

ROB

Reference and Assumption
2012Source National Statistics
Bureau (2015):
National Accounts
Statistics 2015 National Statistics
Bureau (2013):
Statistical Yearbookof Bhutan 2013

2050
Assumption

Source National GDP by industry  Gross National
was downscaled toHappiness
Thimphu and ROB using
Commission,
proxy indices such as
Bhutan (2013):
number of firm, land area,
Eleventh Fiveand population
Year Plan

Assumption
 Both Thimphu and ROB haveeconomic growth.
 It is slightly higher inThimphu.
 Current difference ofeconomic structure between
the regions is assumed to belarger in future.

6Energy
 Primary energy demand will increase more than 5 times from 2012 level in 2050 BaU.
 The largest energy source is Hydropower in both scenarios in all years.

Primary energy supply (ktoe)

 Oil consumption of oil will increase mainly because of transport demand increase.
Primary energy supply

5,000

4,143

4,000

3,125

3,000
1,825

2,000
1,000

2,323
1,763

2,088

2,537

2,993

BiomassOil
Coal797

Hydro02020

2030

2012

2040

BaU205020202030

2040

2050

CMReference and Assumption
2012

2050

SourceAssumption National Statistics Bureau (2015):
National Accounts Statistics 2015
 Department of Renewable Energy and United
Nations Development Programme (2012): Bhutan
Energy Efficiency Baseline Study Final Report S. Jamtsho (2015): Energy Efficiency &Conservation Initiatives in Bhutan Energy consumption
except electricity was
downscaled to theregions using proxy
indices such as
population andnumber of firm

Assumption
BaU Same as the base yearCM Energy efficiency will be
improved.
 Share of electricity will
increase in demand sidefuel composition.

7Energy
 Final energy demand will increase more than 8 times from 2012 level in 2050 BaU.
 Energy consumption in commercial sector will grow remarkably.
 A lot of energy demand in passenger transport sector will be reduced in CM scenario
owing to improvement of fuel economy, diffusion of EV and modal shift to buses.
By sector

Final energy consumption(ktoe)

Final energy consumption
3,500

2,903

3,000
2,500

1,892

2,000
1,500
1,000
500

360

603

541

2030

2040

Commercial

2050

2020

2030

BaU

2040

2050

CM
2,9033,000
2,500

1,892

2,000
1,500
500

Passenger transport

Residential

3,500

1,000

Freight transport
Industry

864

02012

Final energy consumption(ktoe)

1,309

1,097

2020

By fuel

1,762

1,762
1,309

1,097
360

603

541

Electricity
Biomass

864

Oil
Coal

0
2020
2012

2030

2040

BaU

2050

2020

2030

2040

CM

2050

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Agriculture Crop production in Bhutan in 2050 will become twice as much as that in 2012.
 Most of crops are produced in ROB now and in future.
 Rice and fruit are main crops made in Thimphu.

89100 108

114 118
78
70 75
57 65

RicePotato

CerealThimphu

Fruit

2050

2040

2030

2020

2012

2050

2040

2030

2020

2050

2040

2030

2020

22 25 27 28 30

2012

2050

2040

2030

2020

2012

2050

2040

52 56 58
43 49

2012

88

105
95 101

2030

78

2020

140
120
100
80
60
40
200

2012

Crop production (Gt)

Crop production

OthersROB

Reference and Assumption
2012

2050

SourceAssumption

 Ministry of Agriculture & Forests (2015):
Bhutan RNR Statistics 2015

BaU and CM Crop production and cultivated area will increse inproportion to population
CM Yield will be improved.
9Landuse Landuse is different between Thimphu and ROB. Share of forest in Thimphu is much lessthan that in ROB.
 Settlements and cropland will expand with population growth. However, Increase of
these area is controlled in CM scenario by urbanization and improvement of crop yield.
Landuse change

Unmanaged forest land

40%

BaU

2020

2050

2040

2030

0%

2020

Cropland
2050

0%
2040

20%

2030

Managed forest land

2020

20%

Settlements
2012

CN

BaU

2050

Grass land

40%

60%

2040

Wet land

2030

60%

80%

2020

Other land

2040

80%

2012

ROB

100%

2030

100%

2050

ThimphuCN

Reference and Assumption
2012

2050

SourceAssumption

Assumption

 Ministry of Agriculture &Forests (2015):
Bhutan RNR Statistics 2015

 Half of forest land is managed.

BaU and CM
 Area of settlement will increse inproportion to population.
CM Population density becomes higher.
 Managed forest land will increase.

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CO2 Emission from Energy Use
 Commercial sector and Freight transport sector will be main emitters in Thimphu.
 Industry sector and Freight transport sector will be main emitters in ROB.
 CO2 emission in 2050 CM can be reduced by 42% in Thimphu and 35% in ROB comparedwith BaU.
CO2 emission
Thimphu

ROB1,1431,200

3,500

400
2000698

663

1,200
1,000

388

800

600
200
400116200

2012

468116

200

698

297
182 388

Residential

CMBaU
Commercial

2,500

Industry

2,134

1,956

2,000
1,143

1,500

1,544

1,330

1,081
663

1,000
500

02050
2020 2030 2040 2050
20202020 2030 2040 2040

BaU
2012

CO2 emission (ktCO2)

800

CO2 emission (ktCO2)

CO2 emission (ktCO2)

1,000

600

3,027

3,000

776

463
182

468 701
29702050

2030 2040 2050
2050 20202050
2020 2020 2030 20402040
2012

Passenger transport

BaUCMCM

Freight transport

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GHG Emission
 In the BaU scenario, GHG emissions will exceed carbon sequestration, changing into
positive in 2050.
 GHG emission will also increase in CM scenario, but net emission can keep negative up
to 2050, due to implementation of low-carbon measures and increase in carbon sink.
GHG emission
8,000
6,000

Landuse change

GHG emission (ktCO2eq)

4,000

Agriculture

2,000

Industrial processes
Freight transport

0

Passenger transport-2,000Industry

Commercial-4,000Residential-6,000Net emission (Current)
Net emission (BaU)-8,000Net emission (CM)-10,000
2020
2012

2030

2040

BaU

2050

20202030

2040

CM205012GHG Reduction
 The most contributed measure is forest management. Its carbon reduction is more thanhalf of total reduction.
 Commercial sector and transport sector also have large potential to reduce emission.
Emission reduction contribution by measures in 2050 CM against 2050 BaU in Bhutan
Efficient and wellinsulated house2%

Efficient and wellinsulated building
11%

Energy efficientequipment in industry
7%
Efficient vehicle anduse of public transport
7%
Forest management
59%

Efficient freighttransport
11%

Crop yield
improvement
3%13Summary Two scenarios by 2050 were developed with current information andexisting future plans.
 In Bhutan, GHG emission will exceeds carbon sink in 2050 in BaUscenario.

 Hydropower will always be main energy source,
however, oil demand will increase remarkably in 2050 in BaU.
 In the CM scenario, Bhutan can remain carbon neutral.
 More than half of the emission reduction is by forest management.
 The projection is solely based on currently available data and plan. Ifthe information is updated, the result will differ.

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