Towards long-term carbon neutral Asia:

Implication of Paris Agreement to Asian evelopment

Shuzo Nishioka
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
February 2018 Tsukuba

Azumino in early sum

Paris Agreement

Let’s stop here!
We are almost here

Figure 1 | Tipping elements in context of the global mean temperature evolution. Shown is the globalmean surface temperature evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum through the Holocene, based on
palaeoclimatic proxy data35,36 (grey and light blue lines, with the purple and blue shading showing
one standard deviation), instrumental measurements since 1750 ad (HadCRUT data, black line) anddifferent global warming scenarios for the future (see ref. 37 for the latter). Threshold ranges forcrossing various tipping points where major subsystems of the climate system are destabilized havebeen added from ref. 8, 14 and 37–40.
出典：Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf and Ricarda Winkelmann, Why the right climate target wasagreed in Paris, COMMENTARY: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, VOL 6, JULY 2016 , 649-653
Note: WAIS:West Antarctic Ice Sheet, THC: Thermohaline circulation

In the future : Warm Earth

6000℃

Greenhouse Gases：
Carbon Dioxide, Methane,
Nitrous Oxide, CFCs

Emission
7.2GtC
CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2

accumulated
Σ 4.2GtC

CO2

CO2Global CO
Warming effect2

CO2

combustion
Earth
SurfaceCoal
Naturalgas

GW effectby accumulated CO2＝Global Warming

15℃＋α x yr.

CO2

CO2 balance
In 2000

Absorbed into
Forest/Soil0.9GtC
2.1GtC
Ocean

Temp. rises in relation with cumulative GHG emission⇒Temp. rises as long as emission continues⇒ Zero emission is only one ultimate solution
to stabilize climate
Allowable budget

TEMP.

・2℃ ⇒ 790 GtC

CO2+other factors

・515GtC emitted already・only 275GtC remained
CO2 only
Only
for 30years

・2013 emission= 9.9GtC
Transition to low
carbon society
within 50-100 yr.

275GTC
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emission from 1870 (GtCO2)(IPCC AR4 and Emori, NIES)

4

Global target: Halving current emission by 2050
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperaturemight increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century

3.7-4.8 ℃

2.0℃

To avoid 2 degree rise, path of passing 50% reduction
from now in 2050 is feasible and reasonable .
ＩIPCC AR5 2013

Major Decision of Paris Agreement at COP21 (2015)• Set target of less than 1.5/ 2.0 degree temperaturerise from pre-industrial period• All parties participate to take action under NDC⇒Transform to Zero-emission society by the end of
this century• Strengthen cooperation for capacity building in
mitigation and adaptation• Mobilize stakeholders in all levels to act immediately
6Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

2050 halving from now: 2ton/Capita World
Japan: more than 80% reduction（base year 1990）
Asia: already more than 2ton/ Capita
世界
world
40Gt
（2000）

日本
Japan
1.26Gt（1990）

半減Halving>85% 削減
reduction

現在排出Present
emission

total

20Gt

2050年排出人口Pop. 9.6G
Emission in
2050
人口均等配分Equal
allocation per
Capita0.2 Gt
0.097G～2 ｔ/Cap.

2010年

Per capita
CO2(tCO2/人）

USA

17.4

China

5.55

India

1.35

Indonesia

1.63

Thailand

3.25

France

5.34

Germany

8.92

UK

7.92

Japan

9.05

※世界の人口は国連「World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision」より、日本の人口は社人研「日本の将来推計人口（平成24年1月推計）」より

7

Climate Change Impacts
Values of National Development Resources
NatureClimate ChangeInternational
Agreement

Paris Agreement

Basic
Resources fordevelopment

BhutanEnergyFossil Fuel

Iran

Human
CapitalTechnology

Manmadecapitalinfrastructure

Japan
Mitigation

National
Policy andmeasures

NDC & Long-term Low
emission strategy

NaturalCapitalLand, forest ,water

Adaptation

Abundant
fossil energy

UnconventionalGas~900-2900 PgC

But
limited use

Cumulative
Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton~300 PgC

Historcial
Emissions~500 PgC

Preidustrial
Atmosphere~530 PgC

N. Gas~190–240
PgC

Oil~180–280
PgC

Unconv. Oil~300-400
PgC

Biomass~430-460
PgC

Carbon Storage Potential~400-1500 PgC

Gas Hydrates
et~28,000
PgC

Budget until
Carbon Neutral
Present
Atmosphere~800 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012

Coal
~ 10,000 PgC

Stranded Asset?
914

Petroleum resource countries• Climate Change policy imposes extremely great impacts• “only 1000 Gt CO2 GHG =(300GtC) can be emitted for an under 2℃ target”⇒ majority of fossil fuels reserved cannot be used
(unless without big absorption sources as CCS)
• Balance of C demand and supply (GtC)➢ Allowable total carbon emission 300➢ Fossil fuel reserve– Natural gas 190-240 , unconventional gas 900-2900 , Gas hydrate 28,000– Oil reserve 180-280 , unconventional oil 300-400– Coal 10,000– Biomass 430-460– Carbon storage potential 400-1500• Low carbon priority: (relative carbon intensity (carbon/calorie)➢ 0 biomass, nuclear, renewable energy(solar, wind, wave, hydro,: geothermal, tidal)➢ 2 Natural gas➢ 3 Oil➢ 4 Coal10Natural resource & its management in Bhutan
Hydro-Power

Forest for
Biomass &absorption
Soil
Biodiversity
Power line
reaches 97%
of residence

National Park shares
half of land area
National survey of carbon
stock of forest and soil

11

GHG emissions per capita

Leapfrogging Asia
Developed
Countries: Japan
Locked in SocietyHigh Energy
Locked-in Type
Development

Long term Plan
Finance
Capacity Development
Free hand Society

Developing
Countries
ASEAN

アジアはどの道筋を選択するのかWith High
Damage on
Economy andNatural System

Leapfrog
Development
BhutanModeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia

Time

“Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenario Development Study” FY2009-2013, funded by
Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ

http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html 12

What about Asian countries?
Asia (China, ASEAN, India, Japan,,) :• Half of global emission in 2050 (BaU)• Center of global economic growth, High investment ininfrastructure & industry⇒lock-in to conventional highenergy consuming technologies, in coming next 30-50 years• Already exceeded 2 ton/capita
•
•
➢
➢
➢
➢

“leapfrogging”: new development pathways?
A good example: China’s late comer’s advantage

Mobil-phone: difficulty in wired telephone, IT age, ⇒No.1 user and producerof mobile phone
Renewable energy: vast national territory, low-carbon trends, energy security,
air pollution by coal use⇒No.1 in the world producer of renewable energies
and devices
Electric Bike in Shanghai ( good engineering capability, engine technology
needed, air pollution, potential market in Asia
Subway in Shanghai: 14 route after International Exhibition in 2010

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

25

coupling ⇒decoupling
GHG

20

15

10

5

石油危機
Oil Crisis

Bubble高度成長期
バブル景気
Start of highEconomyeconomic
growth
0

リーマン
ショック

Bankruptcy
of Lehman
Brothers

Real GDP （billion yen）

一次エネルギー供給量 （1018J）

GDP vs. GHG

Primary Energy Supply

CO2/ GHG emissions (100Mil. tCO2eq)

Japan 1970’s in Oil crisis vs. China 2010’s in climate change:
Transient period to mature economy

2050年80％削減目標

14

Climate change brought innovation
Shanghai E-bike to ASEAN big market?

New energy-mobility
infrastructure in Berlin

MoroccoClear Sky

Easy slow
mobilization
15

Glory of the past
“Japan as saving-energy frontrunner”
Energy Intensity (ppp)16

Original Data: IEA (2009) CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Highlights

デカップリング（経済成長と環境負荷の切り離し）
ーーー国際比較ーーー

環境白書2012

17

18

Characteristics of Old and New “Mission-Oriented” Projects
Source: Soete and Arundel (1993, p. 51)

Old: Defence, Nuclear andAerospace
The mission is defined in terms of thenumber of technical achievements withlittle regard to their economic feasibility
The goals and the direction oftechnological development are defined inadvance by a small group of experts
Centralised control within a government
administration
Diffusion of results outside the core ofparticipants is of minor importance or
actively discouraged
Limited to a small group of firms that canparticipate owing to the emphasis on asmall number of radical technologies
Self-contained projects with little need forcomplementary policies and scantattention paid to coherence

New: Low Carbon Technologies
The mission is defined in terms of
economically feasible technical solutions
to particular environmental problems.
The direction of technical change isinfluenced by a wide range of actors
including the government, private firms
and consumer groups
Decentralised control with a large numberof involved agents
Diffusion of the results is a central goals
and is actively encouraged
An emphasis on the incrementalist
development of both radical andincremental innovations in order to permit
a large number of firms to participate
Complementary policies vital for successand close attention paid to coherence withother goals
19

Japan’s energy and climate policies•••

2007 Heiligendamm G8 Summit, PM Abe: “Cool Earth 50” concept of halving
global emissions by 2050
2008 Toyako Summit, PM Fukuda: 60-80% reduction by 2050, concept oflow carbon society
2014 Basic Environment Plan: Set 2050 target at an 80% reduction•2015 COP21 Summit PM Abe announced “Actions for Cool Earth 2.0 (ACE2.0)”
Japan’s INDC:
26% GHG reduction in 2030 compared to 2013
Energy conservation: 13% reduction from BaU
35% improvement in energy efficiency (=E/GDP)
Reduce dependency on nuclear power as low as possible•

Global Warming Prevention Headquarters (cabinet members) decided:
Formulate a global warming response implementation plan by spring of 2017
Enhance public movements, support developing countries and encouragetechnological innovation
Strengthen “climate security” including “energy security” throughcontributing to climate change measures around the world
Reduce energy demand as much as possible
Promote shift to low-carbon energy/ enhance electrification

Integrated Assessment Model

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) is an integrated
assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce
GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe
climate change damages.

Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ...
What are assessed and how?
carbon tax

Emission Model

Simple Climate Model【Global】
long-term vision

Account model
Enduse model

Economic model

GHG emissions

IPCC/WG3【Country】【Local/City】

temperature

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Impact/Adaptation
IPCC/WG2
mid-term target 【sequential 【dynamic
Modeldynamics】
optimization】 feedback
Agriculture
low carbon scenario IPCC/integrated scenario
future society

Modeling

Other Models
Population
Burden share

Transportation
Stock-flow

Residential
Accounting

Water
Human health【Global】【National/Local】

adaptation

21

Japan now: hi-energy locked-in and aged society
Now restoring to compact city

Source: Local Development WG team
22
22

22

Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia are examined
Scenario,
Storyline

Action 6 Energy System
Household production/Lifestyle model(identify effects of consumer
behavior
Low
carbon energy system withconsidering change of age/type of
local resources
household/ environment-oriented

Model
Action 1 UrbanTransition
Transport

Snap shot model

Mainstreaming trains andwater transportation

Action 3 Resources & Materials

Action 7 Agriculture & Livestock
Spread of high yields and low
Passenger/Freight Transportation
demand model (parameter
estimate ofemission
agricultural
trip generation, modal share using
statistics on person trip,technologies
traffic flow,
freight flow and others. Service
demand estimation assuming
technology and behavior change)

Action 8 Forest & Landuse

supply and demand balance
Smart material use that realizes Energy
model (adjusting seasonal/dailyenergySustainable
forestbalance of electricity, heat, andthe full potential of resourceshydrogen supply and demand
management

Action 4 Buildings
Smart buildings thatutilize natural systems

Action 5 Biomass
Local production and local
consumption of biomass

Trajectory

Archive data set of Socio-economic change

Infrastructure/building dynamic model (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach forresidential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities)

Macro-economic model (econometric model for parameter estimate of supply-side potential
productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario)

Action 2 Interregional Transport

preferences on energy service demand,transportation trip demand byeconometric methods and estimate
impacts of intervention scenarios)

Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, and
CostPopulation dynamic model (cohort model including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration)

Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion

Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan,
expert judgment)

Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario

Structured Compact City

considering infrastructuredevelopment)

Action 9 Technology & Finance
Energy technology bottom-up model (technology
selection of energy supply,
conversion,
Technology
and finance toconsumption using
econometric/engineering/management
facilitatemethods)
achievement of LCS
Action 10 GovernanceTransparent and Fair
Governance that Supports LCS
Asia

General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility,
economic impacts considering generalequilibrium of approx. 40 services including
energy at service and labor market with supportof other models)Systematic Reduction of CO2: Wider scope to Low Carbon Society
Step 1SocialchangeCO2
GDP
Emission＝ Pop× Pop ×
CO2
0.3

Pop
0.8

GDP/Cap
2.7

Service DemandSame as 2000

2050 Japan LCS Scenario

Step 2ServicedemandStep 3：
EnergydemandStep 4：CO2emission

ServiceDemandEnergyEnergy

CO2

GDP

×

Service Industry
Shift 0.45

ServiceDemandEnergyefficiency
0.6【Demand side】
Saving energy devices,
hi-insulated housing,renewable energy,
Compact city 70%
40％ reduction

×EnergyLow
Carbonize
0.5【Supply side】
Nuclear,Renewables,CCS
with Coal
30％ reduction

Low carbon technology ; cost and reduction potentialEx) Recommended Countermeasures3) Carbin pricing
Mechanism that reduction effort is conomicallyrewarding-Introduction of emission trading-Green tax, Environmental tax (international
competitivenss should be consideres)

50,000Marginal Abatement Costs (Yen/ktCO2）

40,00030,0001) Enhancement of Top Runner
20,000Top energy efficiency in all sectors-Enhancement of regulation- Introductiono f bench mark regulation
10,000

Sets ofMeasures A-10,000

Negativeabatement costs.
Economicallyfeasilbe-20,000-30,000-40,000

0

30,00060,00090,000

GHG reduction（ktCO2eq）
Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap

Sets ofMeasures B

Abatement
costs are undercertain level

Sets of Measures C
High costmeasures.
Requiresappropriate policy
measures
4) Mechanism to enhance technology
development and deployment
Strategic support for-Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff-Green New Deal
- Enhanced standard of energy savingbuilding

2) Visualization of countermeasure activities
Information to encourage smart and rational
choices- Labeling of GHG emissions- Mechanism to make the choices economically
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
feasible (e.g. combination with carbon offset).
- Real time display of electric consumption

26

26

Case of Japan: 70% reduction feasible:
Combination of demand side energy
reduction ＋low carbon energy
-

50

2000

EnergyConsumption
40% reduction

Seconday energy demands (Mtoe)

100

200

Industrial

250

300

350

400

Residential
Commercial
Trans. Prv.
Trans. Frg.

2050A
Decrease of Energy
Demand2050B
Industrial

Residential+
EnergySupply150

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)02000(Actual)

100
Coal

Oil

300

Oil

400

500

600

Gas

NuclearLow Carbon 2050(Scenario A)
Energy2050(Scenario B)
Coal

200

Biomass
Solar and Wind
Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar and Wind

How can Japan Achieve the Targets for 2020?

・Popularize refrigerating machines that use naturalrefrigerants, etc.

949

1,018

1,076

1,282

1,355

1,344

<Demand Sector Image>

1,000

・40-50% improvement of passenger vehicle efficiency(ownership basis; including EV/HV)・EV/HV: 1 out of every 2 new car sales
・Car sharing utilization rate: Increase from 0.3% to 1%of urban population
・Eco-driving in practice: 20 to 30%

500

Actual
実績

▲15%
▲20%
▲25%

2008
2008年

2000
2000年
2005
2005年

0
1990
1990年

(Million of tons CO2 Equivalent)
GHG Emissions
GHG排出量(百万tCO2eq)

1,500

1,261

Specialist WG discussions incorporating the results of interviews with concerned parties concluded that
it is possible for Japan to achieve its reduction targets by building up existing technologies expected to
be used in countermeasures.

2020年

2020

・Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use
advanced insulation and energy saving designs/features
・50 to 70% penetration of high-efficiency water heater inhouseholds
・30 to 40% penetration of building energy control systems
・10 to 20% penetration of PV power in households
・Steadily popularize state of art best-available-technology
in the world・Fuel conversion to natural gases
28

Example: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via
suitable land use & improved energy efficiency
Change in passenger transport volume

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Decline intransport
volumeEnergy efficiency
improvement

Change in passenger transport methods
Change in passenger transport due toincreased urban density ('compact cities')

Land use・
Reduction intransport volume

Improved energy efficiency
Grid electricity
HydrogenSolar energy generation

Biomass
Natural gas

Petroleum oil

2000(Actual figure)2050(scenario A)

2050(scenario B)

Energy demand in 2000

Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline
Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.)
Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity
of destination
Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight
designs etc.)
29Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Deployment of technology
80% reduction measuresin passenger sector

Compact city
Reduction of mobility volume
Re-vitalization of city
center, Pedestrianorientedcar free
運輸旅客輸送量の変化
green city

Population decrease/ aged society
60
1

エネルギー需要量 (Mtoe)

Energy demand

6

50

4

4
7

6

40

旅客需要の交通手段構
成の変化
コンパクトシティ等による旅客輸送量の変化
エネルギー効率の改善

Modal shift
水素
Public transportation
太陽光発電 as city backbone
Toyama city
バイオマス
系統電力

30

Oil

32
28

20

天然ガス

10

Innovation
EV/FCV
2000年のエネルギー需
要量
New industry
石油0
2000年（実績）

2050年（シナリオA) 2050年（シナリオB)

Eliica 370km/h Shimizu
30

100

0

燃料電池車（水素）ﾊﾞｲｵﾏｽ天然ガス
副生水素

燃料電池車（水素）燃料電池車（水素）最小

Hy. Aug
電気自動車

圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV

バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCEV※ＨＶ：ハイブリッド車の省略形※電力：日本の平均電源構成※燃料電池車：回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収※水素：圧縮水素を仮定
原油
天然ガス
石炭
バイオマス
電力
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCHEV
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCEV

石油火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCHEVLNG火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCEV

50

石油火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV

石炭火力->BEV
平均電源構成->BEV
バイオマス発電->BEV

石油火力->BEVLNG火力->BEV

燃料電池車（水素）100

液体水素->FCEV

max

メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV

400

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV

250

燃料電池車(ﾒﾀﾉｰﾙ)

圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV

原油

ガソリンＨＶ

ガソリン車

600

合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEVディーゼルＨＶ0

圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV

500

圧縮水素->FCHEV

200

ディーゼル車200

軽油->Diesel ICEHEV
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEV
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEHEV
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCHEV
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCEV

300

軽油->Diesel ICEV

Well to Wheel CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/km]
Well to Wheel CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/km]

Technical solution
Car CO2 Emission/km: EV: Gasoline= 1:4
min

最大Gasoline

Diesel

150

FC
EV

電力

副生水素
脱温暖化2050研究
交通チーム 工藤

Q7:How to change land use ? Compact city?
Land-use planning and transportation：
Reduction strategy depend on local specification
1人あたりCO2 [t/年]
2.00

Passenger

1.50

Local cities

2000年

Mega cities

0.50

大都市圏都市部

0.00
0

2000

4000

地方都市

大都市圏郊外2050年

地方郊外・郡部

1.00

Rural

6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
人口累積 [万人] population

1人あたりCO2 [t/年]2.00

Per Capita Transportation
CO2 Emission

Cargo Freight
1.50

2000年

大都市圏都市部

地方都市

0.50

大都市圏郊外2050年

地方郊外・郡部

1.00

0.00
0

2000

4000

6000
8000
人口累積 [万人]

10000

12000

14000

Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society
Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020.
If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary
countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with thisspending.

Additional Investment Amount (Trillion Yen / Year)[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target]
1210

1-2% of GDP

9.7

7.8

0.5
0.9

8
6

4
2
0

5.8
0.2
0.6
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.3

15%
▲15%
Reduction

0.4
0.7

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8

1.1

1.5
0.3
20%
▲20%
Reduction

2.0

1.1
1.0

0.3
25%
▲25%
Reduction

Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion
yen per annum across all sectors ofsociety
Other
その他
Electric
Power Systems
電力系統
Other New Energy
その他新エネ発電
Generation
PV
太陽光発電

Automobiles
自動車
Commercial Buildings /業務用建築物・機器
Equipment
Home
Electronics
家電製品
Residential
Water Heaters
家庭用給湯器Housing
住宅
Industrial
産業

Create Green
Markets

Grow Green
Markets

Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon
products.
・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.

33

Japan as the global front runner of aging societies
120 million
Demographic

2000

⇒

＜100 million

Demographic

Scenario
A: Vital Society
B: Slow Society

2050

80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4

80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
-4,0000

4,000

A MaleB MaleA Female
B Female-4,000 0

4,000
×1,000 people

34
34

Co-benefit of low carbon development
Case of City of Kita-Kyushu: Before and after 1970s’transition :Switch from coal to oil & gas, improve energy efficiency to cope with oil crisis
and innovation in pollution control technology

The atmosphere in Kitakyushu, Japan: before and after the clean up (SOE2000).
35

Can Bhutan leapfrog?

Some leading runners, leverage, tailwind

Issue

Country

Internal factors

External factors

Industrial
structure

India: ’90s
IT industry,
Bangalore

Education/
human resources

Soft technology start
Globalization

Energystructure

Japan: ‘70s
Low energy intensity

Technology
Rapid growth /pollution

Oil crisis
Energy security

Bioenergy

Brazil: ‘70s
Bioethanol

Sugar cane
Scarce oil

Oil crisis
Energy security

Information
technology

China: ‘00sMobile phone

Rapid economic growth,
Weak telephone-grid

IT technology
Gobalization

Renewableenergy / EV

China: ‘00s
Wind/solar energy/EV

Big land area
Technology/ pollution

Decarbonizing trend
Climate change

Development path?

Bhutan ～2050s

Political stability
Natural and Pristine
environment
Competitively pricing
energyNation of GNH
Wide use of English
language*8

Carbon neutral world
International cooperation
climate financecapacity building

High dependence toexternal fundHigh transportation
cost
Inadequate
infrastructure36Thank you very much for your attention!

LCS-RNet/LoCARNet Secretariat
http://lcs-rnet.org/index.html
c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan
E-mail: lcs-rnet@iges.or.jp
Fax: +81 (0)46 855 3809

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