May 2010

Japan Center for International Exchange

Futenma: Diplomatic Mess orStrategic Opportunity?
Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, JCIE

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s self-imposed deadline of the end of May to resolve the dispute over therelocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is now
at hand. Thus far, consultations between the Japanese
government and local authorities have yielded littleprogress. The Japanese government may soon settle ona proposal that can serve as a useful basis for consultations with the United States, but it appears unlikelythat a resolution that could also garner the acquiescence of affected local communities will be reached by
the end of the month.
Failure to resolve the Futenma dispute will undoubtedly continue to damage confidence in theHatoyama government. Futenma has been seen
as something of a test case of his administration’s
governing abilities, and public opinion polls haveshown a rapid decline in the cabinet’s support rate.
Hastily labeling the Hatoyama government as incapable is overly harsh; however, it may be fair tosay that given the complexities of the issue, publicly
setting a deadline was unwise and the lion’s share ofthe blame regarding this diplomatic kerfuffle rests
with his government.
Nevertheless, the United States also cannot escapethe consequences, and it must recognize the realitythat there have been dramatic changes in Japan’s domestic political situation. The rise of China and theother changes taking place in the security environment in East Asia necessitate intensive consultationsin the framework of a solid alliance, but some experts fear that the US-Japan alliance will be seriously
undermined if the two governments cannot get theiract together on Futenma. The United States, therefore, must work more closely with Japan to reach asustainable resolution that meets the needs of bothnations. In the absence of any easy solutions, it isimperative that we take a thoughtful and farsighted
approach to the issue. For this, we must start by reaffirming the basic principles with which the relocation issue is to be handled so that this diplomaticmess can be transformed into an opportunity to consolidate and strengthen the alliance.

of the Futenma airfield and other friction-reducing
measures, and through the defense cooperation
guidelines, which clarified Japan’s role in the event ofregional contingencies. Throughout the process, wehad one key phrase in common: “This is joint work.”

Basic Principles for Resolving the Futenma
DisputeThe United States and Japan should abide by four basic principles for their approach to the Futenma issue. First, there needs to be a firm determination fromboth ends that the Futenma dispute should not undermine the alliance. Rather than hastily rushing toan unsatisfactory resolution, what is important at thisjuncture is that both parties focus on the establishment of a process that will contribute to recoveringconfidence in the alliance.
Second, it is important to recognize that, ultimately, the Japanese central government is responsible for fixing the final relocation site. There is no legal
procedure for obtaining agreement from any given
local community. Therefore, while due considerationmust be given to gaining broad understanding fromthe local community surrounding the relocation site,
the central government must ultimately make the final decision.
Third, since reducing the burden on the local
community serves the common objective of sustainable alliance relations, the process of managing the relocation must be considered joint work,
rather than a confrontational negotiation between
the two governments.
Fourth, the relocation plan for Futenma must recognize the long-term perspective of the alliance. As
the United States considered the relocation of the basein the context of the transformation of US forward
deployment, Japan must contemplate the issue in thecontext of the changing security environment in East
Asia and under the new foreign policy orientation of
the Democratic Party of Japan government.
I personally recall the time when I was in chargeof US-Japan security affairs in 1996 when consultations on the Futenma relocation first began. Against
the background of huge anti-base outcry in Okinawa,triggered by a rape committed by US Marines, weestablished for ourselves a strategic objective of reaffirming the alliance. This objective was achieved
through Prime Minister Hashimoto and President
Clinton’s US-Japan Joint Declaration on Security,
which laid out a broad vision for the post–Cold War
alliance, encompassing an agreement on the reversion
EAST ASIA INSIGHTSManaging the May Deadline
In order to allow time for consultations to reach asustainable long-term resolution, Hatoyama’s self­imposed deadline is bound to be extended beyond
May. Here, it is crucially important to quell fears thatthe alliance is in trouble. The alliance is bigger thanany single base, and it is critical that neither side forget how strong the ties are that bind Japan and theUnited States in a wide range of areas.
Therefore, it is good news that the governmentsof the United States and Japan are reportedly preparing to issue a joint statement by the end of May.
This should be a clear statement that demonstrates
the commitment of the two governments to work together productively to resolve the issue in an expeditious way after May.
The Futenma relocation issue should be resolved
keeping in mind the broader picture of East Asia as aregion in transition. To facilitate thinking from thisbroad perspective, a joint commission on the future of the US-Japan alliance should be establishedand announced as a part of the joint statement. The
timing for such an announcement is opportune
given that this year marks the 50th anniversary ofthe US-Japan Security Treaty. The commission does
not need to be explicitly linked to the Futenma relocation issue, but it may be helpful in facilitating a­forward-thinking mentality on the matter. It needs
to be composed of not just government officials
but also politicians, public intellectuals, and business leaders to bring greater transparency and public participation into the making of alliance policy.
The commission should chart a way forward for theUS-Japan alliance, considering matters such as thechanging security environment in East Asia, and inparticular the rise of China and India; the future security architecture of East Asia; and ways for Japanto have a greater role in ensuring its own security
and in contributing to international security.
2May 2010◆ ◆ ◆

realities in Asia, and if it can be used to promotedeeper public discussion of how Japan might makegreater contributions to international security, thenthere is hope that this diplomatic mess can be turned
into an important strategic opportunity.

In a sense, the Futenma issue offers adept leaders on
both sides a rare opening to strengthen the US-Japan
alliance. If the US and Japanese governments can use
the Futenma issue to encourage a constructive joint
exploration of how their alliance can be strengthened
and made more sustainable in light of the changing

Hitoshi Tanaka is a senior fellow at JCIE. He ­previously
served as Japan’s deputy minister for foreign affairs.

East Asia Insights
East Asia Insights is an occasional newsletter focusing on East Asia community building
from the Japanese perspective.
Published by: Tadashi Yamamoto, President, JCIE
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May 2010