Conducting
Vulnerability Assessment
Manabu Watanabe
Collaborative Researcher
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies
6 February 2018, Tsukuba0Morning Quiz ①：Which is the highest tower in Japan?

①

②

③

④

1
1

MorningQuiz
Quiz①：Which①：Whichisisthethemostmosthighest
highesttower
towerininJapan?
Japan?
Morning①②“Sky Tree” in Tokyo is the highest.
“Tokyo tower” in Tokyo.
④③“Kyoto tower” in Kyoto.

“Tutenkaku” in Osaka.
22Morning Quiz ①：Which is the most highest tower in Japan?

Kyoto③
IbarakiWe are here.

Osaka
④

Tokyo
①, ②

3

Morning Quiz ②：What is this sport and who is he?

4Morning Quiz ②：What is this sport and who is he?

Please think.

5Morning Quiz ②：What is this sport and who is he?

This is Rugby Football andhe is me!

6

Contents

１．What is “Vulnerability”?
２．How to conduct
Vulnerability Assessment
３．Japan’s case
４．Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Assessment

7

Contents

１．What is “Vulnerability”?
２．How to conduct
Vulnerability Assessment
３．Japan’s case
４．Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Assessment

8What is “Vulnerability”?
■ The Definition of “Vulnerability”“Vulnerability to climate change describes
the degree to which a system – anecosystem, an economic system or asocial system – is endangered by climatechanges” (German Environment
Agency,2017).

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

9１．What is “Vulnerability”?：Video➢ Animation：
What is vulnerability andhow do we adapt to climate change? (3:42)(giz, Deutsche Gesellschaft fur International
Zusammenarbeit(GIZ) GmbH)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRnvx75D0W8

10

The definition of Vulnerability■ There are several definition of Vulnerability.
NO

Word

1

Vulnerability

2

Vulnerability

3

Vulnerability

4

Vulnerability

5

Vulnerability

6

Vulnerability

7

Vulnerability

8

Vulnerability

Definition“Vulnerability should be recognized as a key indicator of the seriousness of environmental
problems such as global warning.” (Adger et al., 2001)“[...] ‘vulnerability’ to the natural phenomenon must be present for an event to constitute anatural disaster. Vulnerability is defined as a condition resulting from physical, social, economic,
and environmental factors or processes, which increases the susceptibility of a community to theimpact of a hazard.” (ADRC, 2005)“If risk is one side of the coin, its other side is vulnerability, which we may loosely define aspotential for losses or other adverse impacts. People, buildings, ecosystems or human activities
threatened with disaster are vulnerable. [...] Essentially, vulnerability refers to the potential forcasualty, destruction, damage, disruption or other form of loss with respect to a particularelement. Risk combines this with the probable size of impact to be expected from a known
magnitude of hazard. [...] Many authors [...] have confused vulnerability with exposure: inreality they are two complementary components of risk.” (Alexander, 2000)“The insecurity of the well-being of individuals, households or communities in the face of achanging environment”. (Moser and Holland, 1989; quoted in Alwang et al., 2001).
“Summarizing livelihood and environmental literature: vulnerability is the exposure of individuals
or groups to livelihood stress as a result of environmental change.”(Alwang et al., 2001)“The characteristics of a person or a group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with,resist, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard. It involves a combination of factors that
determine the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete or
identifiable event in nature or society.
[...]
Vulnerability concept consists of two opposing forces: On one hand, the processes that cause
vulnerability that can be observed; on the other hand, the physical exposure to hazards(earthquakes, storms, floods, etc.). Vulnerability develops then from underlying reasons in theeconomic, demographic and political spheres into insecure conditions (fragile physicalenvironment, instable local economy, vulnerable groups, lack of state or private precautions)through the so-called dynamic processes (e.g., lack of local institutions, under-developed
markets, population growth, and urbanization).” (Blaikie et al., 1994)“Vulnerability concerns the complex social, economic, and political considerations in whichpeoples’ everyday lives are embedded and that structure the choices and options they have inthe face of environmental hazards. The most vulnerable are typically those with the fewest
choices, those whose lives are constrained, for example, by discrimination, politicalpowerlessness, physical disability, lack of education and employment, illness, the absence oflegal rights, and other historically grounded practices of domination and marginalization.”(Bolin
and Stanford, 1998)“The degree of loss to a given element at risk or set of such elements resulting from theoccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude and expressed on a scale from 0 (nodamage) to 1 (total loss) or in percent of the new replacement value in the case of damage toproperty.” (Buckle et al., 2000)“Vulnerability (in contrast to poverty which is a measure of current status) should involve a
predictive quality: it is supposedly a way of conceptualizing what may happen to an identifiable
population under conditions of particular risk and hazards. Is the complex set of characteristics
that include a person’s: initial well-being (health, morale, etc.); self-protection (asset pattern,

Terms of Vulnerability is not easily defined in
an exhaustive way (United Nations University,2006).
What definition should we use here?

United Nations University (2006), Components of Risk –A Comparative Glossary-：
http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1869/pdf4042.pdf
9Vulnerability

11ISO of Vulnerability Assessment■ ISO of Vulnerability Assessment is now being developed.
There is now no unified“Vulnerability Assessment”
as the situation of thedefinition of Vulnerability.
However, ISO standard ofVulnerability Assessment “Aguidance to Vulnerability
Assessment” is now being
developed. This project isbeing lead by Germany.
This guidance may be astandard for “Vulnerability
Assessment” in the future.

https://www.iso.org/standard/68508.html

12German Guideline■ Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments
The ISO standard mentioned above
is based on a guideline “Guidelines
for Climate Impact and Vulnerability
Assessments”.
So, today I ‘d like to explain“Vulnerability Assessment” with thescheme of this guidance.

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

13What is “Vulnerability”?
■ We will use the definition of “Vulnerability” as below.

“Vulnerability to climate change describes
the degree to which a system – anecosystem, an economic system or asocial system – is endangered by climatechanges” (German Environment
Agency,2017).

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

14

The Concept of “Vulnerability”■ The Concept of the German guidance
Vulnerability is composed of elements.
The elements are Climate Impact and Adaptive Capacity.

Climate Impact is also composed of Climate Stimuli, Spatial
Exposure, and Sensitivity.

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

15

The Element of Vulnerability■ The Element of Vulnerability in the German guidance

Climate Impact: Climate impact describes the observed or potential
impact of the climate stimuli on the system taking into account thecorresponding sensitivity and spatial exposure.
Adaptive Capacity: Adaptive capacity comprises the possibilities fora system to adapt to climate change in the future through additional
measures and to reduce potential losses or exploit opportunities.

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

16

The Element of Vulnerability■ The Element of Vulnerability in the German guidance
Climate Stimuli: Climate Stimuli are described by climateparameters that are relevant for a climate impact such astemperature, precipitation, wind, etc.
Spatial Exposure: Spatial exposure describes the presence of asystem potentially affected by climate stimuli in an investigation
area (e. g. types of land use).
Sensitivity: Sensitivity (susceptibility or fragility) describes theextent to which a system (e. g. economic sector, population group,
ecosystem) reacts to climate stimuli given the properties of thesystem.

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

17Comparison of the Concept of Vulnerability■ AR4, AR5, German guidance
IPCC AR4(2007)(Climate）

exposure

Sensitivity(Potential)

ClimateimpactAdaptive
capacity

German Environment
Agency(2017)

IPCC AR5(2014)

Sensitivity

Hazard(Spatial)

exposure

Adaptive
capacity

Vulnerability

ClimateStimuli(Hazard)(Spatial)
exposure

Sensitivity

ClimateImpactAdaptive
capacity

Vulnerability
Vulnerability

Risk

risk withadaptation

We can see the difference of definition of Vulnerability
and also can see the similarity of the final output.
German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

18

Contents

１．What is “Vulnerability”?
２．How to conduct
Vulnerability Assessment
３．Japan’s case
４．Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Assessment

19Working step 1 Plan and prepare the assessment■ Plan and Prepare the assessment

The type of assessment to be carried out and the steps
required must be defined depending on the issue tobe investigated. The following should be considered as
early as the planning of an assessment:➢ what is the purpose of the assessment,➢ what knowledge and which results are needed forthis purpose,➢ what data and results are already available,➢ who is legitimized to make normative evaluations,➢ which political stakeholders can promote theacceptance and use of the results,➢ which experts from responsible institutions should
represent the decision-making level➢ who are the target audience of the results.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

20Working step 1 Plan and prepare the assessment■ Plan and Prepare the assessment➢ Involving experts from responsible institutions➢ Specifying the methodological framework andkey terms➢ Specifying scenarios for climate stimuli, spatial
exposure and sensitivity

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

21

Involving experts from responsible institutions■ Experts from several institutions are essential.

Experts from responsible institutions are needed and they
are usually representatives of authorities or ministries.
They act as the decision-making level for normativedecisions and provide technical support to the working
level.

If possible, experts from responsible institutions should
be involved at the working level and most importantly at
decision-making level of vulnerability and climate impact
assessments because value decisions must be made andparticipation implies that decision makers identify betterwith the assessment and derive actions.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

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Involving experts from responsible institutions■ KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Climate impacts and vulnerabilities should be assessed and evaluated
together with a group of representatives from authorities or ministries. Theirexpertise should cover the scope of the investigation and, if possible, theyshould be authorized for normative decisions, for example by being delegatedfrom their responsible ministries. For majority decisions, a transparent mode
should be devised in advance to account for the distribution of the participants
among the action fields investigated.

2. All normative processes should be decided by the decision makers and must
be documented transparently.
3. Good cooperation and division of labor between the working level and thedecision-making level is essential. The working level should prepare the basis
for decision making and prepare and carry out the assessment. The decisionmaking level has the responsibility to decide on the basic approach and takenormative decisions. In addition, additional experts should be involved as
required.
4. Collaboration requires sufficient resources from all involved stakeholders.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

23

Specifying the methodological framework and key terms■ Specifying the framework and terms

The concept of vulnerability and the key terms
The concept of vulnerability and the key terms must be specified at the beginningof a vulnerability assessment. This will ensure that they are applicable to theissues in the assessment and the participants share a common understanding.

Specification of investigation periods
Since individual climate parameters show great variability on a decadic scale,climate projections should in principle be assessed for a longer period (cf. Linke etal. 2015). Periods considered for possible climate changes should, as a rule, be atleast 30 years.

Specifying the area of investigation and spatial resolution
The area investigated depends on the purpose and objective of the investigation.
Spatial resolution of the assessment also depends on this, but it is also influenced
by available data, in particular climate and socio-economic scenarios (see Section
3.1.3). Grids, natural areas or administrative units usually serve as spatial
resolution.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

24Specifying the methodological framework and key terms■ KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
1. The purpose of climate impact or vulnerability assessment must be taken
into account when designing and selecting the methods because the desired
result and possible evaluation schemes depend on it.

2. There are several concepts of vulnerability. When starting a climate impact orvulnerability assessment, it must be decided which concept to follow. It is
recommended to use the further developed concept of vulnerability for the time
being.
3. At the beginning of the assessment the key terms climate stimuli, sensitivity,
spatial exposure, climate impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability must be
defined as unambiguously as possible to be able to apply them for empiric
research.
4. The area of investigation, spatial resolution and the periods of investigation
should be specified with a view to the aim of assessment. An outlook for thenear future (i.e. 2021–2050 or 2031–2060) is appropriate for policy recommendations.
The distant future (2071–2100) should also be included for long-term
developments and planning. Optionally, present (1981–2010) can be considered.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

25

Specifying scenarios for climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity■ Determination of climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity

Determination of climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity
requires climate and possibly biophysical and socio-economic data
for the periods of investigation.
Comparing the reference period to present or future can thenshow potential changes. Measured data from past and present areoften available. However, the description of future climate stimuli,
spatial exposure and sensitivities should be based on scenarios or
projections, provided that they are available or can be determined.
Priority should be given to those climate, spatial or sensitivity
parameters that are relevant to the observed or projected climate
impacts.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

26

Specifying scenarios for climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity■ Determination of climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity

Climate Projections
Future climate is usually investigated by a model chain comprising first anemission or concentration scenario, second a global climate model and third atleast one regional climate model. Currently, the generally acknowledged state of
the art is to work with what is referred to as an ensemble of climate projections.
They are based on different combinations of global and regional climate models
and help describe the range of uncertainties in the anticipated climate changes.
Before a decision is taken, it should be checked what conditions the climate
projections must satisfy to meet the requirements of the selected climateparameters and climate impact models.

Time series e. g. for hydrological modelling that include consistent parameterssuch as daily temperature and precipitation values are necessary. However, they
are not easy to provide because of bias minimization often needed for climate
projections and the ensemble approach. In any case, the model ensemble should
cover the entire area of investigation and consist of a sufficient number of modelruns in order to assess climate variability and be based on a previously specified
emission or concentration scenario.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

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Specifying scenarios for climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity■ Determination of climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity

Sensitivity scenarios and scenarios for spatial exposure
Sensitivity and spatial exposure also should, where possible, be based on
scenarios that are consistent with climate projections in terms of time. Some ofthe socio-economic or biophysical parameters such as population or tree species
composition can be quantitatively projected for near future (up to 2030). Since
spatial exposure is closely linked to the development of (socio-economic)
sensitivity, joint sensitivity and spatial scenarios should be developed. Existing
uncertainties can be taken into account by using at least two sensitivity and spatial
scenarios.

Scenario combinations
Climate projections and scenarios for sensitivity and spatial exposure must be
combined for the assessment of climate impacts. Scenario combinations should be
used to show the range of possible developments of climate impacts. These should
cover the spectrum of the combination of change. It is worth considering crosscombining socio-economic and climate scenarios (strong weak and vice versa), in
order, for example, to identify whether climate impacts are driven more by climate
or socio-economic change.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

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Working step 2 Step-by-step execution■ Step-by-step execution➢ Developing impact chains➢ Operationalizing selected sectoral climate
impacts➢ Evaluating and aggregating climate impacts➢ Evaluating adaptive capacity➢ Evaluating vulnerability

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

29

Developing Impact Chains■ Impact Chains
In order to assess the cause-effect interlinkage between climate stimuli andpossible climate impacts, it is recommended to create so-called impact chains foreach action field. Impact chains help understand, systematize and prioritize which
factors influence the impacts of climate extremes and climate change on a system.
Both direct climate impacts on biophysical and socio-economic (sectoral) systems
and indirect climate impacts can be considered.
For example, direct biophysical impacts include the development of floods as aresult of heavy precipitation in certain catchment areas. Socio-economic impacts
include for instance heat stress on human health. Indirect climate impacts include
the impacts of changes in flood frequencies on sensitive systems such as humans
or material goods.
The impact chains clarify which climate parameters influence and therefore
provide the basic framework for the vulnerability assessment. In addition, they
serve as an important communication tool that helps stakeholders involved agree
on what needs to be assessed and which climate and socio-economic or
biophysical parameters play a role. This makes it easier to derive targeted
adaptation measures following the vulnerability assessment.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

30

Developing Impact Chains■ Impact Chains

Selecting climate impacts
It is recommended to first develop simple impact chains for all climate impacts at
the working level, together with the involved experts from responsible institutions.
These should be based on existing (literature) knowledge. This should be done
regardless whether these impacts can be represented with models, indicators
or expert knowledge.
If more possible climate change impacts were identified by impact chain than canbe investigated within the framework of the assessment, the decision-making levelneeds to subsequently select the climate impacts that appear particularly relevant
for the respective assessment and its purpose.
The advantage of this approach is that technical and regional or local conditions
can be taken into consideration, which ultimately increases the acceptance of theassessment results. The more concrete the purpose has been defined, the moreclearly the selection criteria can be identified.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

31

Developing Impact Chains■ Example of an impact chain
for the action field“building industry” in Germany➢ Climate Stimuli➢ Direct climate impacts➢ Climate impacts

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/
medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_im
pact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

32

The our method of Assessment■ Example of an impact chain for Rice Product in Japan

Rice
Product

Climate Stimuli

Direct Impact

Temperature

Reduction onyield and quality

Precipitation

Sea Level

Extreme
Weather
Event

Degradation on
health conditionof farmers

Total Impact

Economic
Losson Rice
Product

Shortage of
agricultural
water
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Impact Chain in Biodiversity■ Example of an impact chain for Land Ecosystem in JapanLand
Ecosystem

ClimateStimuli

Direct Impact

Total Impact

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea-Level

Extreme
Weather
EventsExisting
Ecosystem
will be lostLand
Ecosystem
Will be lost
Foreign
EcosytemWill invade34

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Operationalization paths for climate impacts
In order to operationalize the selected climate impacts relevant indicators should
be discussed in expert workshops. In cooperation with the participating experts
from responsible institutions, possibilities for operationalizing individual climate
impacts should be identified and selected to create the basis for further evaluation
steps.
This is particularly recommended when experts from responsible institutions havea specific technical or spatial relation to the selected climate impacts and/or
when they hold adequate data that is necessary for the operationalization.
However, the procedure of collecting indicators should be similar for the entire
model area.
Furthermore, it is recommended to use clearly defined indicators for climate
impacts. These can be quantitative (such as potential flooding areas as anindicator for the climate impact flooding), but also semi-quantitative or qualitative(for example, an estimation of energy availability).

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

35

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Operationalization paths for climate impacts
There are three basic methodological approaches (operationalization methods) for
the assessment of future climate impacts:

1. Impact models
If impact models are available that represent the complex and often nonlinear
interlinkages between climate parameters and sensitivity parameters the results ofthese models should be applied. When using models it is important to check theunderlying assumptions and to verify whether they are consistent with the basic
assumptions of the assessment regarding the time-related and spatial structures
as well as the climate and socio-economic scenarios used.

2. Use of proxy indicators
If there are no suitable impact models, climate impacts should be parameterizedusing plausible data. This should be based on proxy indicators specified by experts
for the core elements climate stimuli, spatial exposure and sensitivity.
The selection of the proxy indicators depends among others on the spatial
resolution. For example “effect on the sewer system and wastewater treatment
plants” combined the proxy indicators heavy rain and degree of soil sealing.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

36

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Operationalization paths for climate impacts
There are three basic methodological approaches (operationalization methods) for
the assessment of future climate impacts:

3. Expert knowledge
If causal relations cannot be fully or only partially quantified through the two
approaches mentioned above, the strength of climate impacts can be evaluatedusing expert surveys.
These three recommendations on operationalization should help create acomprehensive, preferably quantitative conclusion on climate impacts and enable
the comparison of different indicators. If the assessment pursues a different goal
and aims for instance to identify single “hot spots” or detailed causal interlinkages,
an alternative approach can be used: In these cases it is appropriate to first
conduct expert surveys on all climate impacts but to quantify only those wheremore precise conclusions are needed. In particular at the local level, the procedure,
which is predominantly based on expert surveys, can be more effective.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

37

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Example of Climate
Impacts :Maps for the “Potential
damage to buildings
cause flash floods”
indicators in German

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guideli
nes_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_
assessments.pdf

38

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Verifying data availability
Data is the central issue of many quantitative assessments. Theiravailability or non-availability can be a limiting factor. Therefore, thefollowing points should be considered:➢ Nation- or state-wide data are necessary if the aim is to obtain comparable
results for different climate impacts for the whole investigation area.
➢ For spatially specific results, data should be available at a uniform reference level(for example, districts) or able to be aggregated accordingly. Grid data (forexample, climate data) can be applied to administrative spatial units. Vice versa,
data for spatial units can also be converted into grid data.
➢ The data should be available at least for the reference period and the near futureand ideally for the present and the distant future, should these be considered.
➢ If data gaps are identified at an early stage, it can be decided whether climate
impacts can be quantified or should be estimated using qualitative surveys.
➢ The effort of the investigation work for the measurement of climate impacts
depends more on the choice of indicators than on the chosen operationalization
method.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

39

Operationalizing selected sectoral climate impacts■ Estimating the level of confidence
Both calculated results and those obtained from expert surveys are subject touncertainties. It is recommended to estimate the confidence of the results of theclimate impacts in order to facilitate the interpretation of the results. This should
be done separately for the calculated climate impacts (operationalized via models
or proxy indicators) and climate impacts operationalized via surveys.
It is recommended to evaluate the level of confidence for each indicator and eachclimate impact at least on a scale ranging from “low” to “medium” to “high”, or
better still on a five-stage scale. A verbal conclusion should be drawn for climate
impacts which have been investigated using several indicators.
Since the confidence assessment is in part subjective, it should be performed by
the experts involved and experts from responsible institutions according to theirtechnical competence.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

40Evaluating and aggregating climate impacts■ Evaluation approaches
It is important to clearly distinguish between the evaluation of the results and thetechnical analysis. The strength of a potential climate impact cannot be equatedwith its significance. While even small changes can be of great significance insome systems – for example certain ecosystems – other climate impacts that may
be stronger can be more easily compensated.
The criteria and the scheme of the evaluation depend on the assessment’s
objective. If the aim is to prioritize the allocation of resources (including support
for research) for climate change adaptation over the long-term, across large areas
and taking into account the interlinkages among climate impacts, climate impacts
or action fields should be considered in an integrated way.
Such an integrated evaluation can take place in various approaches:
１．Quantitatively using climate-specific benchmarks (threshold values),
２．Quantitatively using common reference quantities, for example through normalization ormonetarization,
３．Qualitatively by experts based on comprehensive evaluation criteria, developed inagreement with the decision-making level.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

41

Evaluating and aggregating climate impacts■ Evaluation approaches
Determining evaluation criteria that are climate-impact specific andcomprehensive usually represents a challenge. In order to merge single
evaluations, one also needs a measure for the weighting of these evaluations.
Specific thresholds for determining when a climate impact becomes critical are
difficult to establish, and many climate impacts cannot be quantified anyway.
Therefore, a qualitative comprehensive evaluation often is the only way to draw
comparative conclusions.
Even if climate impacts can be calculated using models or proxy indicators,
uniform quantitative evaluation criteria such as monetarization are difficult toapply to all climate impacts. A whole series of normative assumptions are for
instance needed in order to monetarize climate impacts on natural areas andecosystems, for example spread of invasive species.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

42Evaluating and aggregating climate impacts■ Aggregation
Aggregating the results of individual climate impacts is a useful way to draw crosssectoral and summary conclusions. However, such an aggregation is only possible
if the units of the data sets are compatible or if the data are dimensionless, which
can be achieved e. g. by normalization. In order to be able to aggregate or blend
the data in a spatially differentiated way, they must as a rule have a similar
resolution and be available for the entire area.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

43

１．●
Evaluating and aggregating climate impacts■ Example of Evaluation of Climate
Impacts for the action field“building industry” in German

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

44Evaluating adaptive capacity■ Adaptive Capacity
In addition to climate impacts, the adaptive capacity must also be evaluated inorder to carry out a complete vulnerability assessment. For practical reasons, it isrecommended to integrate the adaptive capacity as a status quo, i.e. its current
condition, in the vulnerability assessment.
Adaptive capacity thus represents the currently identifiable scope of options foradapting to the expected climate change by means of additional measures. It istherefore not necessary to develop specific scenarios or to consider ways in which
adaptive capacity could potentially change in future.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

45Evaluating vulnerability■ Combine the investigated climate impacts with theadaptive capacity to vulnerability
It is only possible and meaningful to quantitatively present the results onvulnerability if clearly defined and measurable parameters exist for both climate
impacts and adaptive capacity. This is necessary, for example, to estimate theeffect of adaptation measures on the vulnerability of systems, regardless ofwhether the measures are actually implemented or not.
However, it is difficult to combine the investigated climate impacts with theadaptive capacity to vulnerability in terms of methodology and content – especially
if vulnerability is to be determined across action fields. One reason for this is theheterogeneous nature of the information (spatial, non-spatial, quantitative,
qualitative). It is therefore recommended to estimate the vulnerability for
individual action fields purely qualitatively using verbal descriptions or semiquantitatively.
Regarding the spatial dimension of the climate impact, the indicators can also help
determine, at least by verbal descriptions, how the vulnerabilities of individual
regions differ.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

46Evaluating vulnerability■ Evaluation of Vulnerability
The following should be considered when interpreting the vulnerability results:
If a system has a high adaptive capacity, it has relatively low vulnerability.
However, this does not mean that there is no need for policy action and thiscircular reasoning should be avoided at all costs.

After all, the ability to adapt does not mean that this ability is also being used northat necessary measures are being implemented. Thus, even systems with low
vulnerability can still require incentives to implement adaptation measures.
In this respect, the results of the separate assessment and evaluation of climate
impacts and adaptive capacity are often more important than combining them intoa single vulnerability value.
In addition, it should be taken into account that the conclusions on thevulnerability of an action field is usually difficult to interpret since it strongly
summarizes evaluations and insights of different quality.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

47Evaluating vulnerability■ Example of Crosstabulation for determining the vulnerability ofan action field

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

48

My image of Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment

Impact Assessment

Vulnerability Assessment

The future impact
in Building industry sector
The future impact
in Agriculture sector
The future impact
in Biodiversity sector

etc
In which sector should we conduct adaptation measures?

49

Working step 3 Communicating and using results■ Communicating and using results
Firstly, it is important to clarify from the very beginning who will be the target
group of the assessment and its results. The presentation of results should beoriented at this target group.
Sufficient resources for communication measures must be calculated in terms offinances and time, particularly if the results, at least in part, should becommunicated to the public. This requires a suitable, generally comprehensible
language and representation. In addition – and this must also be calculated inadvance – data records could be edited by science journalists in a way that they
can be presented online for a broader public.
The technical documentation of the assessment in a final report should include not
only the results, but also the methodology including all assumptions and normativedecisions.
This makes it easier to interpret the results and to compare them between
assessments. Furthermore, uniform evaluation and formulation rules particularly
contribute to greater transparency of the results.
German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

50Working step 3 Communicating and using results■ KEY RECOMMENDATION
１．Every climate impact and vulnerability assessment should declare its purpose and target
audience because this determines many of the normative decisions made in the assessment andevaluation.

２．It should always be indicated which data, models and scenarios the assessment of climate
impacts or vulnerability is based on. It is also particularly important to note the period for which
the conclusions are made and the reference year to which the estimates of the changes apply.
３．It is recommended to name all participating experts from responsible institutions, survey
partners and other experts.
４．There are various ways to graphically map the results of climate impact and vulnerability
assessments. Map-based representations are recommended for spatial assessments. Climate
impact maps can be interpreted more easily if the climate, spatial exposure and sensitivity
parameters included in the assessment are also mapped. The spatial resolution of the data must
be taken into account for map representations.
５．The way in which quality assurance was carried out should be made clear for each
assessment, for example, whether and in what form a review process took place.

German Environment Agency (2017)：
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

51

Contents

１．What is “Vulnerability”?
２．How to conduct
Vulnerability Assessment
３．Japan’s case
４．Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Assessment

52

Japan’s Case：Assessment in Japan53

Japan’s Case：Assessment in JapanThe Vulnerability Assessment in Japan has been conducted by several
experts to identify which sector is vulnerable with the following point ofview.
Significance：Which sector will have significant impact?
Urgency：In which sector will the impact happen urgently?
Confidence：In which sector will the possibility of impact be high?

54

Contents

１．What is “Vulnerability”?
２．How to conduct
Vulnerability Assessment
３．Japan’s case
４．Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Assessment

55

Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Assessment■ It is needed to develop a method to assess Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity
Many research projects have been conducted, and knowledge
regarding to Vulnerability(Risk of with adaptation) and adaptation
measures have been accumulated in Japan.
Although those knowledge are created by experts on several sectors
as the result of the latest scientific findings, it is said the problem isthat those research projects mainly have focused on “Climate
Stimuli” and “Exposure”, and that “Sensitivity” and “Adaptive
Capacity” have not been taken into account sufficiently.
Therefore, it is needed to develop a method to assess thoseelements of Vulnerability more specifically.

56

Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Assessment

German Environment Agency (2017), Guidelines for Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessments ：https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/376/publikationen/guidelines_for_climate_impact_and_vulnerability_assessments.pdf

57

Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Assessment■ It is needed to develop a method to assess Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity
We are now developing the method to assess Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity to support the existing assessment method ofVulnerability.
Climate Stimuli

Spatial Exposure

Sensitivity

ClimateImpactAdaptive capacity

リスク

Vulnerability

58

Identification of Indicators■ This study had two approach for identification of Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity indicators.
Approach 1

Literature ResearchFirstly, this study has
conducted literature research
about vulnerability in Japan andall over the world broadly andcollected the indicators
suggested in those research,and more than 200 indicators
have been collected.

影響分野
大分類

大項目

中項目

データ

脆弱性指標

小項目

感受性

適応能力

単位

利用
可能性

指標の

脆弱性評価レベル

備考

・気候変動の影響への適応計画
・気候変動の影響への適応計画策による流入負荷量の低減対策

湖沼・ダム湖参考文献

優先度

水質のモニタリング状況
工場・事業場排水や生活排水の対貯水池における選択取水設備・曝気循環設備等の水質保全対策の徹

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

底度合い

水環境

水環境

下水道の高度処理配備状況

河川
水環境・水資源・気候変動の影響への適応計画

水源の濁度上昇適応力〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

水質のモニタリング状況

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

沿岸域及び閉鎖性海域
ダムや貯水池による水資源管理能

水供給（地表水）

水資源

水資源

〇

力
不安定取水の割合

水供給（地下水）△△・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況％

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況％

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況％

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況

地下水利用の把握状況

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

水供給における地下水の割合
雨水・再生水の利用度合〇

渇水対策の情報提供・普及啓発の

水需要・気候変動の影響への適応計画

度合い
浸水時の対策徹底度合い（浸水時More than 200 possible indicators
・気候変動の影響への適応計画

ガイドラインの整備等）

〇

％

〇

昼間人口比率〇％〇屋外作業人口比率〇％△

昼間スポーツ従事者人口比率

〇

％

△

・熱中症環境保健マニュアル〇△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇△・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

have been collected.
死亡リスク・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）

老齢人口比率

熱波警報システムの運用状況

天気予報時の注意喚起の普及度合
い・熱中症環境保健マニュアル

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル

ハイリスクグループへの対策度合
い（高齢者かつエアコンを設置していない世帯等）
熱中症シェルターの配置割合

健康

暑熱

暑熱

熱中症

〇

〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

緑地・街路樹の面積比率

△

△

〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

排熱を減らす省エネビルの比率

△

△

△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

老齢人口比率〇％〇

昼間人口比率〇％〇屋外作業人口比率〇％△

昼間スポーツ従事者人口比率〇

熱波警報システムの運用状況
天気予報時の注意喚起の普及度合
い％・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル△

・熱中症環境保健マニュアル〇△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇△・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

ハイリスクグループへの対策度合
い（高齢者かつエアコンを設置していない世帯等）
熱中症シェルターの配置割合〇〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

緑地・街路樹の面積比率

△

△

〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

排熱を減らす省エネビルの比率

△

△

△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

59

The our method of Assessment■ This study had two approach for identification of Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity indicators.
Secondly, this study have identified specific indicators with Impact chain
from the indicators collected by the previous approach.
After identifying indicators, this study continued to improve the logic byanalysis of the data availability, statistics analysis, and expert judge.

Approach 2

Impact Chain

60

The Identified Indicators■ We’ve identified indicators of Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity
in the sector of rice cultivation as a case-study.
We’ve identified several indicators as below, for example the rate of thehigh temperature-tolerant bleed of rice cropped.

61

Vulnerability Assessment
農業、森林・林業、水産業

分野

水稲

小項目
分類における

確信度高い

メカニズム
指標の性格

外力指標
2081～2100年の平均コメ収量におけ指標る現在との変化率／地球温暖化｢日本への影響｣(S-4)よ
り

曝露指標

脆弱性指標

水稲の農業産出額（1,000万円）／市町村別農業産出額(推計)(農林水産省)より

水稲作付面積に占める高温耐性品種作付面積の割合

水稲農家における温暖化や
その対策についての認知状況

高温耐性品種開発に取り組む研究機関の有無

地域における適応策（水管理以外）実施に関する記録

農家の高齢化比率

ソーシャル ・
キャピタル 統合指数の有無

水稲作従事者 地域においての暑熱対策に 行われる熱中
ついての認知 症対策の取組
状況

みの有無

水稲農家にお水使用量に占 ける温暖化やめる農業用水 その対策につの割合

いての認知状況（再掲）

農業用水関係
事業の都道府
県別予算額

地域における適応策（水管理対策）実施に関する記録

（百万円）

の有無
脆弱性評価

脆弱性評価レベル（or有（脆弱順位10
（あり）

（あり）

◎

×

〇

◎

〇

○

×

◎

○

×

○

◎

都道府県単位

市町村単位

都道府県単位

データなし

都道府県単位 都道府県単位 都道府県単位 都道府県単位

データなし

都道府県単位 地域区分単位

データなし

都道府県単位 都道府県単位

減少であれば

大きいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

大きいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

大きいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

小さいほど

外力を受けやすい

曝露大

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

脆弱

位以内の項目

無）
指標の単位

指標の傾向

の数）

北海道

増加

11,490

0％

0

0

36.7%

17.8％

12

75.0%

37,768

0

5

青森県

増加

4,221

0％

1

2

43.4%

19.1％

2

85.7%

3,400

1

3

岩手県

増加

5,062

0％

0

0

45.1%

22.9％

16

85.7%

3,705

0

5

宮城県

増加

6,348

0％

0

0

38.6%

19.8％

4

85.7%

2,312

1

4

秋田県

増加

8,548

0％

1

1

42.5%

22.9％

2

85.7%

4,416

0

3

山形県

増加

7,519

13.9％

1

0

46.4%

25.3％

8

85.7%

2,680

0

3

福島県

増加

5,631

0％

1

2

44.2%

21.6％

9

85.7%

1,504

0

3

茨城県

増加

6,938

0％

2

1

46.9%

21.1％

17

75.7%

2,400

0

2

栃木県

増加

5,236

0％

1

0

42.3%

21.3％

15

75.7%

1,000

1

2

群馬県

減少

1,350

0％

1

0

51.8%

20.9％

1

75.7%

150

0

6

埼玉県

減少

3,538

0％

0

2

51.5%

20.3％

2

32.4%

500

0

4

千葉県

減少

5,668

25.7％

1

0

46.2%

18.8％

65

32.4%

4,010

0

3

東京都

減少

13

0％

0

0

49.6%

17.9％

153

32.4%

0

0

6

神奈川県

減少

295

3.2％

0

0

45.7%

18.4％

1

32.4%

0

0

6

新潟県

増加

12,844

17.9％

2

3

39.7%

21.7％

17

85.7%

10,710

0

2

富山県

増加

4,044

0％

1

1

42.7%

21.5％

7

76.1%

2,157

1

2

石川県

増加

2,530

10.1％

1

1

47.0%

22.8％

19

76.1%

937

1

1

福井県

変化なし

2,577

0％

1

1

43.7%

25.4％

0

76.1%

1,130

0

4

山梨県

減少

536

0％

1

0

50.0%

23.3％

28

75.7%

651

0

3

長野県

変化なし

4,233

0％

1

0

50.2%

25.1％

2

54.1%

480

0

3

岐阜県

減少

2,021

13.3％

1

2

48.5%

22.7％

18

54.1%

150

0

2

静岡県

減少

1,832

0％

1

0

50.2%

23.2％

1

54.1%

2,344

0

4

愛知県

減少

2,542

0％

1

0

50.1%

19.7％

26

54.1%

4,146

0

4

三重県

増加

2,358

0％

1

0

47.2%

21.6％

8

54.1%

770

0

3

滋賀県

変化なし

3,192

0％

1

2

41.3%

22％

7

66.9%

2,700

1

1

京都府

減少

1,589

12.2％

2

1

48.2%

20.3％

8

66.9%

0

0

2

大阪府

減少

756

0％

0

0

49.1%

18.6％

20

43.4%

0

0

6

兵庫県

減少

4,328

0％

1

0

47.7%

20％

15

43.4%

2,200

0

奈良県

減少

893

10.3％

0

0

47.0%

20.7％

16

66.9%

257

0

623

和歌山県

減少

760

25.4％

1

1

50.6%

20.4％

8

43.4%

3,230

0

Finally, this study synthesized indicators identified and conducted theassessment of regional vulnerability.

32

Vulnerability Assessment■ As the result, this study found out that specific regions in the middle ofJapan were relatively vulnerable.
ClimateArea

StimuliSpatialSensitivity,

Exposure

Adaptive(Million Yen)

Capacity

Gunma

10

Down

1,350

6

Saitama

11

Down

3,538

4

Sizuoka

22

Down

1,832

4

Aichi

23

Down

2,542

4

Hiroshima

34

Down

2,239

4

Tokushima

36

Down

1,059

4

Chiba

12

Down

5,668

3

Hyougo

28

Down

4,328

3

Tottori

31

Down

1,209

3

Okayama

33

Down

2,939

3

Yamaguchi

35

Down

2,020

3

Kagawa

37

Down

1,008

3

Kumamoto

43

Down

3,609

3

Gifu

21

Down

2,021

2

Kyoto

26

Down

1,589

2

Fukuoka

40

Down

3,701

2

Saga

41

Down

2,488

2

Ehime

38

Down

1,355

1

63

Impact Chain in Biodiversity■ A Case-study of Impact chain in the sector of Land Ecosystem.
We are planning to conduct Vulnerability Assessment in the sector ofLand Ecosystem as a next case-study.
Land
Ecosystem

ClimateStimuli

Direct Impact

Total Impact

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea-Level

Extreme
Weather
EventsExisting
Ecosystem
will be lostLand
Ecosystem
Will be lost
Foreign
EcosytemWill invade

64

End

Thank you very much foryour attention

65