2022 ႩӨ‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ೥ඊ਋Ⴊ஬࣏व
2022 INTERNATIONAL COSMOS PRIZE
The Commemorative Lecture୰ࢽఖཆሓ෗Ӡே఑च֧፜֭შጥव਋Ⴊ੤वEXPO ʼ90 Foundationኬ಑،‫ؕ؞ץآ‬1ဎཇೄጸ፾3஬࣏ಃፍ5،‫ؕ؞ץآ‬႘ಐӱӠ፭Ꭼ4Ⴉ11ଈ13႘ӡ႘Ӣ୙ଢ଼1ಐ30ᇀ⿤୙ଢ଼3ಐ30ᇀӡ႘቎ಐ৖Ӣ಑༌ӱӨ ୙ଢ଼1ಐ30ᇀ

2022Ⴉ‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ೥ඊೄൾऴწ౅ӠਟਵӨ౳ӨӨӲੜဒ་ॺ኎ዮੱ೨Ւ‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ๰ண๔኷࡙ࡿव࡙ࡿྙӴ୙ଢ଼ӻಐ40ᇀ ӠӠ೥ඊ਋Ⴊ஬࣏
؊‫ח׬؟ל‬Ք‫ע‬՛‫ץب׬‬Өშౠӡ2022Ⴉ‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ೥ඊೄՒ؅՛‫׾‬་ॺੱ೨ӲภᆾॺӴӴ୙ଢ଼2ಐ30ᇀӨӠӠ਷ૠ୙ଢ଼2ಐ40ᇀӨӠӠଞ੄ൾऴӠӠӠӠࣰᆪӠ਌ᅖ౤ ౳（ӡேଞӢස፟ຳ஽ଞ੄സภᆾ໣ዻตՔਂ୭ᇥ၌ଞ੄੐࿾ଞ੄๔኷ࡿ）ӠӠ໴ཎՒಱਝࣤး
؊‫ח׬؟ל‬Ք‫ע‬՛‫ץب׬‬ӨშౠࣰᆪӠ਌ᅖ౤ ౳コーディネーター：佐倉 統 氏（東京大学大学院情報学環教授、コスモス国際賞選考専門委員会委員）

午後3時30分

閉会

1Table of Contents
Program1

Biography of Speakers

3

Lecture Materials

5

Program
Time and Date 13:30-15:30 (JST, UTC+9:00), Sunday, 13 November, 2022
Timetable
13:30 Introduction of the prize and prizewinner
Dr. SHIRAYAMA Yoshihisa(Professor Emeritus, Kyoto University /Chairperson, the International Cosmos Prize Screening Committee of Experts)

13:40 Commemorative Lecture by 2022 International Cosmos PrizewinnerDr. Felicia Keesing(David and Rosalie Rose Distinguished Professor of Science, Mathematics, andComputing, Bard College)

14:30 Break time
14:40 Introduction of Research
Dr. OKABE Kimiko(Re-employed research scientist, the Center for Biodiversity and Climate Change, Forestry andForest Products Research Institute of the Forest Research and Management Organization)Dialogue and Question-and-answer session
Dr. Felicia Keesing
Dr. OKABE Kimiko
Coordinator: Dr. SAKURA Osamu(Professor, Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of Tokyo /Member, the International Cosmos Prize Screening Committee of Experts)

15:30 Closing

2ဎཇೄጸ፾
Biography of Speakersภ໺ॺೄՒੱࡱೄӠEcologist, Educator؊‫ח׬؟ל‬Ք‫ע‬՛‫ץب׬‬ӠDr. Felicia Keesing؅՛‫׾‬་ॺੱ೨ӡภᆾॺӢ
2022Ⴉ‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ೥ඊೄ
2022 International Cosmos PrizewinnerDavid and Rosalie Rose Distinguished Professor of Science, Mathematics, and Computing, Bard CollegeӠӻԃԀԀႩภֽ‫׋‬ՓӻԃԂԁႩ‫ب״׮‬؊‫מ‬՛‫׾‬་ॺ‫ؕ׻׮׬פ׸؟ؑب׬‬،‫ؕ؞ץآ‬໘઄Ւኁ৖৫઄֦֩֨૪ଫ‫֟גูב‬ଢ଼Ւ‫؟נ‬؊‫؀ؠמ‬‫ח‬་ॺ؅՛‫ءפ‬՛஑ַႚॺՓ㕱㕹㕹㕷Ⴉ၍་ॺ֪֥შౠӡျ஽ภᆾॺӢ೘ၜՓ㕱㕹㕹㕷Ⴉ‫׿ם׬‬་ॺൃੱӡภᆾॺӢՒ㕲㕰㕰㕰Ⴉ؅՛‫׾‬་ॺൃੱӡภᆾॺӢՒ㕲㕰㕰㕳Ⴉ؅՛‫׾‬་ॺനੱ೨ӡภᆾॺӢՒ㕲㕰㕱㕲Ⴉ‫׉ׇ‬ଵධՓଞ੄‫׻‬՛֮ؓՒ‫ؚ؀‬՛‫؝‬՛‫פ‬ೱ؄‫بײ׾‬؅‫ء‬՛֧‫ח؀צ‬ཨ࣡ᆪ֭‫ת‬؅‫֪׿ب‬։֐‫׊‬শ๟൵֭ภ໺Փ؅՛‫׾‬་ॺ֭ॺᆪภ֧ଞ੄֘‫ׁ֧֒׊‬໣փՓੱࡱׁ֪፛‫ב‬ႚ‫֥׋‬։‫׉‬Ւ‫ן‬՛،‫֭׮بםיתب‬෮ු‫׃‬၍ፉଞ੄ೄ֧‫ؤ׽׸؂‬՛‫בפ‬૛ถ֖֥֭೓փଞ੄ೄ֭ੱࡱ֪፱‫֦ג‬փ‫׊‬ՓӼӺӺӺႩՒԏԱՆՀՍӨ ԍԱՆԵԵՆӨ ԋՋԱՆԴӨ ԶՃՆӨ ԢԳԺԵՂՈԺՇՈՇԱՂԴӨԏՂԷԺՂԵԵՆՇ‫ב‬೥ඊՓӼӺӻԃႩ֪֮‫נ؟ؖח‬ภ໺ॺव؊‫آל‬՛ՒӼӺӼӼႩ֪‫נ؟ؖח‬ऎॺව੹੤व؊‫آל‬՛֪๰ഞ֔‫֞׋‬Փ
Born in 1966. She graduated from the Symbolic Systems, Stanford University. After gaining experience in the private sector, etc., she entered the Universityof California, Berkeley. And received her Ph.D., Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley in 1997. She worked as an Assistant Professor of Biology
at Siena College, Assistant Professor of Biology at Bard College and Associate Professor of Biology at Bard College before taking current position, Davidand Rosalie Rose Distinguished Professor of Science, Mathematics, and Computing at Bard College from 2012.
Her research focuses on the ecology of infectious diseases in New York's Hudson Valley and in the savannas of central Kenya. She conducts a lot ofresearch with undergraduate students at Bard College. She is also passionate about education, promoting “open science” and networking withcolleagues to provide education for young researchers, ranging from junior and high school students to college undergraduates and graduated.
She was granted United States Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers, 2000. She was selected as the Fellow, Ecological Society ofAmerica, 2019 and the Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2022.

ॆዼภᆾॺೄՒ૩ျᇀ፬ॺೄӠMarine biologist, systematic taxonomistწ౅ӠਟਵӠԎՆӸӨԢԒԔԡԋԨԋԚԋӨԨՃՇԸԺԸԺՇԱ
ੜဒ་ॺ኎ዮੱ೨ՒӡேଞӢॆዼଞ੄्ᄇ৿ஓ‫׾ח‬؅‫׫י‬՛‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ๰ண๔኷࡙ࡿव࡙ࡿྙ
Professor Emeritus, Kyoto University
Advisor, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Chairperson, the International Cosmos Prize Screening Committee of ExpertsӠӻԃӿӿႩภֽ‫׋‬ՓӻԃԂӼႩဪੜ་ॺ་ॺࢇጫॺ૩ଞ੄ऎ၌ᆾॺ๔஌შౠड࿘ೲፇՓጫॺშౠՓ႘቎ॺടව੹वൕ፱ଞ੄ࡿՒဪੜ་ॺॆዼଞ੄സൃ೚Ւൃੱ೨Ւੜဒ་ॺጫॺᆪੱ೨Ւੜဒ་ॺ؊‫ט‬՛‫׾ؠ‬ऎॺੱࡱଞ੄‫״بװ‬՛ྙ‫ב‬૪֥ՒӼӺӻӻႩ‫׉ׇ‬ӼӺӻԂႩֽ֦ၤጵபทሓ෗ॆዼଞ੄्ᄇ৿ஓጫಈՓጫಈ༄႞ଢ଼Ւ၍৿ஓၟ႞ౄಈ‫ב‬૪֥ՒଵධՓ๔኷֮ॆዼภᆾॺՓၟ֪൚૙࿌ภภᆾӡ‫׮׽ب؎ןיؖ‬Ӣ֭ภ໺ॺՒ๦૛Ք၌ᇁՔၕங၌ᆾ֭૩ျᇀ፬ॺՒෆॆภᆾ֭ᇱ๺ภᆾॺ֭֩֨ଞ੄‫ב‬೗֪ු‫֥׀‬֌֞ՓઝႩ֮Ւॆዼ౒ตँ֭ภᆾࢬ੽֭֩֨ଞ੄ׁப֢֥փ‫׊‬Փॆዼภᆾ֭‫׮תبװ‬،‫֭׽פל׭آ‬ऎॺ෮ු࡙ࡿव֭ࡴࡿ֧֖֥ՒӼӺӻӻႩ֪‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ‫ב‬೥ඊ֖֞Փֽ֞ՒӼӺӻԂႩ֪֮Ւॆዼጵே෮ුୱ᎕ೄᅳൠ‫ב‬೥֐֥փ‫׊‬ՓBorn in 1955. In 1982, he completed the doctoral program in the Department of Zoology, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, where heearned his Ph.D. in science. He worked as an Postdoctoral Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Research Associate, and then Associate Professor at the Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Professor at the Faculty of Science, Kyoto University, and Director of the Field Science
Education and Research Center, Kyoto University. Subsequently he served as Executive Director of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science andTechnology (JAMSTEC) from 2011 to 2018, when he retired from the post and became Associate Executive Director of JAMSTEC. After holding thesepositions, he took on his present post. As an expert in marine biology, he has pursued research with primary focus on the ecology of meiobenthos, thesystematic taxonomy of nemathelminthes, kinorhynchs and Loricifera, and the conservation biology of deep-sea organisms. In recent years, he has also
conducted research into the biological impacts of ocean acidification. He was a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Census of Marine
Life, which won the International Cosmos Prize in 2011. He was also granted the National Maritime Award in 2018 by the Japanese government.

3ภᆾ໣ዻตଞ੄ೄՒ‫ॺ؀׵‬ӠBiodiversity researcher, specialist in acarologyࣰᆪӠ਌ᅖ౤ӠDr. OKABE KimikoӡேଞӢස፟ຳ஽ଞ੄സภᆾ໣ዻตՔਂ୭ᇥ၌ଞ੄੐࿾ଞ੄๔኷ࡿ
๑ጃ་ॺਰࡿੱ೨Ւຳ஽ད੃ৄ੩ॺଞ੄സਰࡿଞ੄ࡿ
Re-employed research scientist, the Center for Biodiversity and Climate Change,
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute of the Forest Research and Management Organization
Visiting Professor, Chiba University / Visiting Researcher, the Research Institute for Humanity and NatureӠӻԃԀӻႩภֽ‫׋‬Փ๑ጃ་ॺࣆ૷ॺᆪ໘Ւ၍་֪֥შౠӡॺടӢ೘ၜՓӻԃԂԂႩႺ፟෯ౌ൶፟઄ಀଫ඘ӡଵස፟ຳ஽ଞ੄സӢႚ൶Ւؔ‫ס׬‬‫ب‬་ॺਰࡿଞ੄ࡿᇏ႞ՒӼӺӻԀႩ‫׉ׇ‬ภᆾ໣ዻตଞ੄੐࿾ྙՒጐႩภᆾ໣ዻตՔਂ୭ᇥ၌ଞ੄੐࿾ྙՒଵఓ֪౼‫׊‬ՓӼӺӺӺႩ‫׉ׇ‬ස֭፟ภᆾ໣ዻตᅴअՒᇱ๺֪૒‫׊‬ଞ੄֪ഌಈ֖Ւภᆾ໣ዻตඞዃස፟๔኷ऌव஽‫׃‬ԔԣԣԞԔԍԤԝ֭ภᆾ໣ዻต‫بי؞׾יס‬๔኷ऌव஽࡙ࡿՒԔԟԌԏԢདࡰ‫׽بؖ׮װח‬಩ᅤೄ֩֨ேၾ॒࡙֭ࡿ့‫ב‬ኃ‫֞֌֥׀‬ՓӼӺӻԁႩ‫׉ׇ‬،‫؟׽פל׭آ‬՛‫׵‬՛֧֖֥Ւ෗഑੢ྫྷশ๟൵໴ప֧֖֥֭၌ᆾ֧ภ໺૩֭ᇱ๺Ք৉ጫ։‫ֲׇ‬ೂव֭ց‫׉‬ሑ֪֣փ֥֭ଞ੄‫ב‬෮ු֖֥փ‫׊‬Փֽ֞ภᆾ໣ዻตᇱ๺Ւ෗഑੢ྫྷশ๟൵֧ภ໺૩ᇱ๺֪֩֨৘֘‫׊‬श๊֭ഞᄟ‫׃‬஬࣏‫ב‬ย፛࿨֪ப֢֥փ‫׊‬ՓBorn in 1961. She graduated and received her Ph.D. from the Graduate School, Chiba University. In 1988, she joined the Forest Experiment Station, Ministryof Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (now the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, or FFPRI). While working for the ministry, she was concurrently
assigned as a visiting researcher at the University of Michigan. In 2016 she was appointed Director of the Center for Biodiversity, and in the following year
Director of the Center for Biodiversity and Climate Change of FFPRI, where she has been working up to the present. Since 2000, she has been involved inresearch on forest biodiversity assessment and conservation, while serving as a member of the forest expert panel for the Convention on Biological Diversity, a member of the expert panel for the ITTO/IUCN biodiversity guidelines, an author of the IPBES regional assessment report, and a member of othercommittees both in Japan and abroad. Beginning in 2017, as a project leader, she has promoted research into the conservation and management ofanimals and ecosystems and what society ought to be, as part of countermeasures against zoonoses. In addition, she has been vigorous in publishing herwritings and delivering lectures to provide explanations on biodiversity conservation, zoonoses, and ecosystem conservation.

ऎॺਙടೂवᎪଞ੄ೄӠResearcher of science and technology studies௨ຘӨျӠԎՆӸӨԢԋԗԤԡԋӨԞՇԱՁՉ
ဪੜ་ॺ་ॺࢇගሇॺৄੱ೨Ւጫँॺଞ੄സॹශཐႷျ஽ଞ੄‫״بװ‬՛‫׶‬՛ؕ‫؟‬՛‫׵‬՛‫׮ؗ׮ר‬ே఑ඊ๰ண๔኷࡙ࡿव࡙ࡿ
Professor, Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of Tokyo
Team Leader, the Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), RIKEN
Member, the International Cosmos Prize Screening Committee of ExpertsӠӻԃԀӺႩภֽ‫׋‬Փੜဒ་ॺ་ॺࢇጫॺଞ੄ऎშౠड࿘ೲፇՓూᅟँถภ኏ऎॺଞ੄സՒࣧᆃேጵ་ॺ૪ࢪॺᆪՒ؊‫י؞‬؋‫פؠ‬་ॺගሇೂवଞ੄സ‫ב‬૪֥ՒଵධՓဪੜ་ॺ་ॺࢇගሇॺৄྙӡӼӺӻӿӷӼӺӻԁӢׁኃ‫׊׀‬Փׁׁ֧֧֭๔஌֮ුँภᆾॺ֟֋Ւ֭֜ଢ଼Ւऎॺਙട֧ೂव֭৘૒֪֣փ֥֭ଞ੄ணళ֪๔኷‫֖ࡤב‬Ւ෗፬ුँ֭৑࿾֊‫׈‬෗৖֭ऎॺਙട‫ב‬࿊ࡔ֘‫׊‬ఢ઄‫ב‬ኟఫ૫໗ཨՓ೗ེ֩ി֪Ւըऎॺ֧֪֮֩֊թӡ஬ཎೂӢՒը։֮‫ׇ‬օ֊‫׈‬։‫ֽ֦֭־֘׃‬ऎॺթӡ֠֎ֽ،‫ؓ؟‬՛ශിӢՒըුँᎪ֧փօணև֊֞թӡ஬ཎೂଵ༉ශിӢՒը‫׈֊֖֮֒֨֠֞֞׎‬጖֥֪֨֒ப֎֭֊iթӡཨ୰ᇌୃӢՒըଵ༉౩ມ֧֖֥֭ৄ੩ኴ༎թӨ ըऎॺ֭ࣧၗթӡׁ֧֪ཨ୰ශിӢՒըզᇬጦէ֮෗‫ב‬ᆊஂ֪֘‫׊‬թӡශྌ๰ിӢՒը෗֧զ৿ॅէ‫بי׫׼֏֣֩ב‬թӡဪੜ་ॺഞᄟवӢ֩֨Փ
Born in 1960. He received his Ph.D. in primatology (behavioral ecology) from Kyoto University. He worked at the Mitsubishi Kasei Institute of Life Sciences,Yokohama National University and the Institute for Information and Society, University of Freiburg, Germany, before getting current position. He served asdean of Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of Tokyo (2015-2017). After finishing his Ph.D. work, he has shifted research fields toscience and technology studies including environmental ethics, radiation risk perception, and cultural aspects of AI/robots. He is continuing his work toexplore the ultimate meaning of science and technology for human beings from the perspective of human evolution.
His major books (written in Japanese) include What is Science (Kodansha), Science from Good Morning to Good Night (Chikuma Primer Shinsho), Conceptof the Evolutionary Theory (Kodansha Gendai Shinsho), Where Do We Come From and Where Are We Going? (Chuko Bunko), Environmental Issues as aContemporary Thought and Promenade in Science (both are from Chuko Shinsho), How ‘Convenience’ Makes Us Unhappy (Shincho Sensho), and The
Design for Integrating Humans and Machines (University of Tokyo Press).

4How biodiversity loss fuels pandemicsਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͹ଝࣨͳ‫״‬ઝ঳
Felicia Keesing
Bard Collegeshutterstock.com

1

What do we know about
emerging infectious diseases that
could prevent future epidemics?
৿‫״ڷ‬ઝ঳Ͷͯ͏ͱΚ͖ͮͱͪ͘͞ͳͳͺʃ͞͹எ‫ݡ‬ͶΓͮͱɼগཔ͹‫״‬ઝ঳͹ླྀߨΝ๹͛͞ͳ͗Ն೵

2

5

Emerging infectious diseases ৿‫״ڷ‬ઝ঳Jones et al. Nature 2008

1. Pathogen has recently jumped to humans. ۛ೧ɼබ‫ݬ‬ର͗ϐφͶఽ೽
2. Range of disease has expanded dramatically. ‫״‬ઝஏҮܸ͗దͶ֨୉
3. Disease has rapidly increased in prevalence. ጸ‫ٺི͗׳‬ଐͶ৏ত3Emerging infectious diseases ৿‫״ڷ‬ઝ঳Jones et al. Nature 2008Zoonotic
75%

COVID-19 ৿‫ܗ‬αϫψΤ΢ϩη‫״‬ઝ঳
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
Ebola ΦϚϧSwine flu ಴΢ϱϓϩΦϱδ
AIDS Φ΢θ
Lyme disease ϧ΢Ϟබ
Tuberculosis ݃֫Plague Ϙηφ
Smallpox ళષ౳A zoonotic disease is caused by a pathogenʴਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳ͳͺʵthat can be shared between humans andಋҲ͹බ‫ݬ‬ରͶΓΕϐφͳϐφҐ֐͹੺௥ಊ෼͹૔๏͗ጸ‫ͤ׳‬Ζ‫״‬ઝ঳other vertebrate animals

46

Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳

100%

100%5Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳

100%100%

67

Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳

100%

100%

7

Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳
96%
100%
100%

88

Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳
96%
100%

We often assume that the species
that is the closest match must be
the source of the pathogen.
But in most cases, we never actuallyfind the source.
ଡ͚͹৖߻ɼҲ஗ི͗࠹΍߶͏Τ΢ϩηΝ༙ͤΖಊ෼͗ɼබ‫ݬ‬ର͹‫״‬ઝ‫͍Ͳݱ‬Ζͳਬఈ͠ΗΖɽ
͖͢͢ɼ‫״‬ઝ‫ݱ‬͹ಊ෼͗ಝఈ͠ΗΖ͞ͳͺΆͳΞʹ͵͏

9Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳

100%

If any of these animals could havegiven us a new pathogen, then isn’t
biodiversity dangerous to us?
Are areas rich with biodiversity
dangerous because they could besources of the next emerging
infectious disease?
ಊ෼͗ϐφͶ৿͢͏බ‫ݬ‬ରΝ΍ͪΔͤ͵Δͻɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͺࢴͪͬͶͳͮͱ‫͵ݧث‬͹͖ʃ109

Is this forest
dangerous to us?
͞͹ਁྜྷͺϐφͶͳͮͱ‫͵ݧث‬͹Ͳ͢Β͖͑ʃ

Diego Lizcano

11͞͹૴‫ݬ‬ͺϐφͶͳͮͱ‫͵ݧث‬͹Ͳ͢Β͖͑ʃIs this savanna
dangerous to us?
Jakob Bro-Jørgensen

1210

The next emerging zoonotic
virus is far more likely to comefrom a rat than a rhino࣏͹৿‫ڷ‬ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹Τ΢ϩηͺɼγ΢ΓΕ΍ϋθϝ͖Δड़‫ͤݳ‬ΖՆ೵੓͹๏͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏

13There aremany different
kinds ofmammals,
grouped into“Orders” by
how closelyrelated theyare.
ᄣ೗ྪͺ͠ΔͶ͏͚ͯ΍͹ʰ໪ʱͶ෾ྪ͠ΗΖྭʁྸௗ໪ɼͮ͝ࣅ໪ɼৱ೓໪ɼ‫د‬ఛ໪ɼཏघ໪

Burgin et al. 2021

14

11

There are many
species in someOrders ofmammals, andfew in others.

ͮ͝ࣅ໪ཏघ໪
ਇໃ໣ௐ໪ྸௗ໪۰ఛ໪
ৱ೓໪ͨΗͩΗ͹໪Ͷ෾ྪ͠ΗΖᄣ೗ྪ͹਼ͺҡ͵ΖRodents are themost common ͮ͝ࣅ໪Ͷ෾ྪ͠ΗΖᄣ೗ྪ͗࠹΍ଡ͏kind of mammal. ʤͮ͝ࣅྪʥਫ਼෼झ਼

Data from American
Society of Mammalogists

15

For some reason,
biodiversity
pictures do notinclude rodents.
ਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓Νන‫ͤݳ‬ΖਦͶͺɼʹ͑͏͑༃͖ͮ͝ࣅྪ͗ඵ͖Ηͱ͏͵͏

shutterstock.com

16

12

For some reason,
biodiversity
pictures do notinclude rodents.
ਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓Νන‫ͤݳ‬ΖਦͶͺɼʹ͑͏͑༃͖ͮ͝ࣅྪ͗ඵ͖Ηͱ͏͵͏

shutterstock.com

17

The next emerging zoonotic
virus is far more likely to comefrom a rat than a rhino
Because rodents are the most common kind of mammal࣏͹৿‫ڷ‬ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹Τ΢ϩηͺɼγ΢ΓΕ΍ϋθϝ͖Δड़‫ͤݳ‬ΖՆ೵੓͹๏͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏ͮ͝ࣅ໪Ͷ෾ྪ͠ΗΖझͺɼᄣ೗ྪ͹஦Ͳ࠹΍ଡ͏ͪΌ

18

13

Some groups ofmammals carry morezoonotic viruses thanothers.

ਕॏ
‫ڠ‬
௪
‫״‬
ઝ
঳
Τ
΢
ϩ
η
झ਼͹
ׄ
߻

Rodents have themost.
ᄣ೗ྪ͹໪ͶΓΕɼਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳Τ΢ϩη͹ฯ਼༙ͺҡ͵Ζᄣ೗ྪ͹झ਼͹ׄ߻ͮ͝ࣅྪ͹ฯ਼༙͗࠹ଡ

19The mammals withthe most viruses arethe least endangered.
ฯ༙ͤΖΤ΢ϩη͗ଡ͏ᄣ೗ྪͺɼઊ໕͹͕ͨΗ͗ఁ͏
Percentage of species listed as threatened with extinctionઊ໕͹͕ͨΗ͹͍Ζझͳ͢ͱમఈ͠Ηͱ͏Ζਫ਼෼झ͹ׄ߻

20

14

The next emerging zoonotic
virus is far more likely to comefrom a rat than a rhino
Because rodents are less vulnerable to biodiversity loss than othertypes of mammals are࣏͹৿‫ڷ‬ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹Τ΢ϩηͺɼγ΢ΓΕ΍ϋθϝ͖Δड़‫ͤݳ‬ΖՆ೵੓͹๏͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏ͮ͝ࣅྪͺଠ͹ᄣ೗ྪΓΕ΍ਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ଝࣨ͹Ӫ‫ڻ‬Νण͜Ͷ͚͏ͪΌ

21This map shows whererodents that host
zoonotic diseases live.
ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹ॕकͳ͵Ζͮ͝ࣅྪ͹ਫ਼ଋஏ

2215

Traits of zoonotic hosts

Traits of vulnerable speciesਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹ॕक͹ಝ௅ઊ໕‫ث‬ዩझ͹ಝ௅• Large geographic range• Short lifespan• Early maturity• Lots of babies in each litter• Small geographic range• Long lifespan• Late maturity• Few babies in each litterʀ߁൥ҕͶਫ਼ଋஏ͗෾ා
ʀथໍ͗୻͏
ʀ੔ज़͗૥͏
ʀҲౕͶࢊ΋࢖͹਼͗ଡ͏ʀ‫͏ڳ‬൥ҕͶਫ਼ଋஏ͗෾ා
ʀथໍ͗ௗ͏
ʀ੔ज़͗ங͏
ʀҲౕͶࢊ΋࢖͹਼͗ঙ͵͏Han et al. 2015

McKinney 1997

Keesing & Ostfeld 2021

23

ৱ೓໪

Low ఁϪρχϨηφ͹য়‫ڱ‬The species that host zoonotic
Greaterviruses are less vulnerable toconservation
concernbiodiversity loss than theฯ‫ޤ‬͹චགྷ੓
species that do not.
झ͹ׄ߻ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳Τ΢ϩη͹ॕकͳ͵Ζझͺɼͨ͑Ͳ͵͏झͶർ΄ɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͹ଝࣨͶΓΖӪ‫ڻ‬Νण͜Ͷ͚͏High ߶

Keesing & Ostfeld PNAS 2021

2416

ৱ೓໪ܷ۰ఛ໪

ཏघ໪ྸௗ໪ͮ͝ࣅ໪ϪρχϨηφ͹য়‫ڱ‬झ͹ׄ߻

Keesing & Ostfeld PNAS 2021

25

The next emerging zoonoticvirus is far more likely to comefrom a rat than a rhino
Because the species that carry zoonotic pathogens don’t tend todecline when biodiversity is lost࣏͹৿‫ڷ‬ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹Τ΢ϩηͺɼγ΢ΓΕ΍ϋθϝ͖Δड़‫ͤݳ‬ΖՆ೵੓͹๏͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳Τ΢ϩη͹ॕकͳ͵Ζझͺɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͗ଝ͵ΚΗͱ΍‫ݰ‬ঙ͢Ͷ͚͏ܑ޴Ͷ͍ΖͪΌ

2617

Zoonotic diseases ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳

Some of these animals are farmore likelyto give us pathogens
100%
than others are.
Biodiversity is not a dangerous
source of zoonotic pathogens.
͍Ζಊ෼ͺଠͳർ΄ɼϐφͶබ‫ݬ‬ରΝ‫״‬ઝͦ͠ΖՆ೵੓͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏ਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͺਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳බ‫ݬ‬ରΝड़‫ͦ͠ݳ‬Ζ‫ݧث‬གྷҾͲͺ͵͏27ࢴͪͬͺਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͶΓͮͱगΔΗͱ͏Ζ

More importantly,
biodiversity actually
protects us.
Jakob Bro-Jørgensen

2818

CASE STUDY #1: Kenya ίωΠ஦ԟ෨ɼϧ΢ΫϒΠ‫Ͳ܌‬͹‫ڂݜ‬୉‫ܗ‬ᄣ೗ྪ͹ଚࡑͺͮ͝ࣅྪ͹‫ݺ‬ର਼Νཊ੏ͤΖ

No large mammals

୉
‫ܗ‬
ᄣ
೗
ྪ
͗
ଚ
ࡑͤ
Ζ৖
߻

Large mammals

Large mammals suppress
the abundance of rodents.

ΫνοϑΨϙΨϔέϫϋθϝ͹ືౕ

Density of pouched mice29୉
‫ܗ‬
ᄣ
೗ྪ
͗ଚ
ࡑ͢͵͏
৖
߻

Keesing 1998
Keesing & Young 2014

CASE STUDY #1: Kenya ίωΠͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬
30

19

More micemeans more fleasόϝ͹਼

Large mammals suppress theabundance of fleas that can transmit
plague and other diseases

Number of fleasϋθϝ͹਼͗ଡ͏ͳόϝ͹਼΍ଡ͏୉‫ܗ‬ᄣ೗ྪ͗ଚࡑ
ͤΖ৖߻

Largemammals

No large ୉‫ܗ‬ᄣ೗ྪ͗ଚࡑ
mammals ͢͵͏৖߻୉‫ܗ‬ᄣ೗ྪͺϘηφ͵ʹ͹බ‫ـ‬Νఽઝͦ͠Ζόϝ͹‫ݺ‬ର਼Νཊ੏ͤΖ

Density of pouched mice

CASE STUDY #1: Kenya ίωΠͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬ΫνοϑΨϙΨϔέϫϋθϝ͹ືౕ McCauley, Keesing, et al. 200831

Ticks transmitdiseases to peopleξωͺϐφͶබ‫ـ‬Ν‫״‬ઝͦ͠ΖTicks feed on miceand other animalsξωͺϋθϝ͵ʹͶ‫ر‬ਫ਼

CASE STUDY #2: New York ωϣʖϦʖέयͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬
32

20

Ticks that feed onmice survive better

Proportion of ticks

Rodents increase thenumber of ticks

ॉ෾͵ৱྋΝಚͪξω͹
ׄ߻ͮ͝ࣅྪͺξω͹਼ΝଁՅͦ͠Ζ

feeding
successfully
Proportionof larval
ticks fed (+SEM)

ϋθϝͶ‫ر‬ਫ਼ͤΖξωͺਫ਼͘࢔ΕΏͤ͏

a0.50.4

b0.3

bbb0.20.1

c0.0
usMoelery atbird munkirre
sumVeCipSqu OposCh

CASE STUDY #2: New York ωϣʖϦʖέयͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬

HostHost speciesspeciesॕकͳ͵ͮͪਫ਼෼

Keesing et al. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 2009

Keesing et al. 200933

Ticks that feed onmice get are more
likely to get infectedͮ͝ࣅྪͺ‫״‬ઝͪ͢ξω͹਼Ν
ଁՅͦ͠Ζ

Proportion of ticks

Rodents increase thenumber of infected ticks

‫״‬ઝ
͢
ͱ
͏ͪξ
ω
͹
ׄ
߻

Reservoir(percent)thatcompetence
get infectedϋθϝͶ‫ر‬ਫ਼ͤΖξωͺΓΕ‫״‬ઝ͢Ώͤ͏
100

80
60
Average questing nymph prevalence

40
200W

C
M-f m hip ask S-t s Veer Grey G-d Skun Opos Racc Deerosusq bird ko u m u n e d h re w ym onuirshsekrel srew

CASE STUDY #2: New York ωϣʖϦʖέयͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬34

21

Hostspecies
HostHostspecies
species ॕकͳ͵ͮͪਫ਼෼ Keesing et al. 2009
LoGiudice et al. 2003

How do predators
affect disease risk?
ำৱंͺ‫״‬ઝϨηέͶʹ͹Γ͑͵Ӫ‫ڻ‬Ν༫͓Ζ͖ʃ

CASE STUDY #2: New York ωϣʖϦʖέयͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬

Ostfeld, Keesing, et al. 2018

35

These predators
decrease disease risk
Coyotes increase
disease risk

Diverse predators
reduce disease risk.

ଡ༹͵ำৱंୱҲ͹ำৱंaଡ༹͵ำৱंͺ‫״‬ઝ঳ϨηέΝఁ‫ͦ͠ݰ‬ΖCASE STUDY #2: New York ωϣʖϦʖέयͲ͹‫ڂݜ‬3622Lowerdisease risk

Higherdisease risk‫״‬ઝ঳Ϩηέఁ‫״‬ઝ঳Ϩηέ߶

Ostfeld, Keesing, et al. 2018

These samepatterns havenow been seenaround theworld.
ಋ༹͹Ϗνʖϱ͗੊ֆ֦ஏͲ֮೟
͠Ηͱ͏ΖAugust 2020
37

The next emerging zoonotic
virus is far more likely to comefrom a rat than a rhino
Because the species that carry zoonotic pathogens thrive whenbiodiversity is lost࣏͹৿‫ڷ‬ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳͹Τ΢ϩηͺɼγ΢ΓΕ΍ϋθϝ͖Δड़‫ͤݳ‬ΖՆ೵੓͹๏͗ͺΖ͖Ͷ߶͏ਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳Τ΢ϩη͹ॕकͳ͵Ζಊ෼ͺɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͗ଝ͵ΚΗͪ৖߻Ͷൡӭ ͤΖͪΌ3823

Summary ΉͳΌ• Rodents are the most likely sources of zoonotic pathogens.
• Zoonotic reservoirs thrive when biodiversity declines.
• Natural biodiversity is not dangerous to us.
• Natural biodiversity actually protects us from zoonotic pathogens.
ʀͮ͝ࣅྪͺɼਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳බ‫ݬ‬ର͹‫״‬ઝ‫͵ͳݱ‬ΖՆ೵੓͗࠹΍߶͏ʀਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳බ‫ݬ‬ର͹‫״‬ઝ‫͵ͳݱ‬Ζಊ෼ͺɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͹‫ݰ‬ঙ࣎ͶൡӭͤΖʀਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͺϐφͶͳͮͱ‫Ͳݧث‬ͺ͵͏ʀਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͶΓͮͱɼϐφͺਕॏ‫ڠ‬௪‫״‬ઝ঳බ‫ݬ‬ର͖ΔगΔΗͱ͏Ζ

39

So what should we do?
Protect, preserve, and restore biodiversityࢴͪͬ͗ͤ΄͘͞ͳͳͺʃਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͹ฯ‫ޤ‬ɼฯસɼյ෰

4024

“30 by 30” initiative

There are current policy efforts to conserve
30% of the Earth’s surface for biodiversity.
‫ࡑݳ‬ɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ฯસͶ޴͜ͱஏ‫ځ‬৏͹཰քҮ͹30ˍΝฯ‫ͤͳۢޤ‬Ζ੕ࡨ͹खΕૌΊ͗਒ΌΔΗͱ͏Ζ41

ਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓͹ଝࣨͺɼ੊ֆ஦Ͳ҈સ‫ݸ‬ֆΝ௔͓ͱ͏Ζਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓ͺͤͲͶஸ͚͢ଝ͵ΚΗɼ

Preserving current biodiversity will not be ‫ࡑݳ‬͹য়ସΝң࣍ͤΖͫ͜Ͳͺ෈ॉ෾
enough because we have already lost so much.
Newbold et al. 20164225

ଝ͵ΚΗͪਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓Νյ෰ͦ͠͵͜Ηͻ͵Δ͵͏We must also restore areasthat have lost biodiversity.

Jen Guyton

43

We do not yet know if
restoring biodiversity
restores its protections
against infectious diseases.
ͪͫ͢ɼਫ਼෼ଡ༹੓Νյ෰ͦ͠Ζ͞ͳͲ‫״‬ઝ঳ΝཊࢯͤΖ‫ؽ‬೵ΝखΕ໯ͤ͞ͳ͗
Ͳ͘Ζ͹͖ͺɼΉͫ෾͖Δ͵͏4426

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