Bhutan and Climate Change

Sonam Dagay
National Environment Commission
Royal Government of Bhutan

Outline hg❖ Bhutan in brief❖ Bhutan’s Vulnerability❖ Potential Impacts and adaptation needs❖ National GHG Inventory (SNC)Bhutan in brief✓ LDC with a very fragile mountainous terrain✓ Total Area of 38, 394 Sq. Km✓ Approx. 779,666 people✓ Constitutional mandate: 60% of total area under forest cover
for all times✓ Current Forest Cover 80.9 %-42.7 % Protected Area
✓ Approx. 69% of population dependent on agriculture✓ Hydropower, agriculture, tourism- economy

Bhutan’s Vulnerability to Climate Changefragile mountainous landscapelandlocked & least developed country

Heavy dependence on climate sensitive sectors
Low level of economic diversification

Agrarian society(69% of population)

Large investments inhydropowerLarge areas of glaciers and glacial lakes

Current Vulnerabilities• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods– due to temperature rise

• Land Degradation– Landslides, erosion due changes
in to weather patterns, highintensity rainfall, cyclones• Flashfloods– Intense rainfall periods, cyclones

Current Vulnerabilities• Droughts– Drying water sources due totemperature rise, longer intervals
between rains• Wind and Thunder storms• Pests and diseases

Potential areas impacts of climate change in Bhutan
Human Health
Agriculture
Natural Disasters

Forests & Biodiversity
Water ResourcesClimate Change Scenariosand potential adverse impacts

Climate Change Projections: summary
Temperature changes by 2069 compared to present– average annual temperature– monsoon season average temperature– winter season average temperature+3.5 C+3.0 C+3.5 - 4.0 C

Rainfall changes by 2069 compared to present– change in the amount (increase in annual precipitation)– slightly wetter conditions in the warm monsoonal months– slightly drier conditions in the dry winter months.

Potential Impacts based on Scenarios
Water Resources (using WEAP + model results)– At gross level (main river and rainfall), enough water in the country– However local shortages and droughts (above rivers)

Agriculture (case studies using DSSAT + model results),– Maize (Kanglung)moderate decrease in potential production– Rice (Bhur)moderate decrease in potential production– Potatoes (Phobjikha) significant increases in potato yields in the future

Forests (using Holdridge classification + model results)– general northward migration of major forest classes– subtropical species invading the southern margins and alpine species decreasing on
the northern margins.

Adaptation Priorities
Short term Immediate Actions
1. Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
2. Landslide Management and Flood Prevention
3. Application of Environment Friendly Road Construction
4. Enhancing National Capacity for Weather and SeasonalForecasting
5. Increasing climate Reslience in Vulnerable Communities6. Flood Protection of Infrastructure (industrial and agricultural)
7. Rainwater Harvesting
8. Community Based Forest Fire Management & PreventionAdaptation Priorities
Long term Actions• Economic Diversification• Climate proofing of hydropower and infrastructure• Agriculture research and diffusion of appropriate varieties andtechniques• Water resources management• Diversification of energy mix• Protection of forests and parks• Scaling up of GLOF Risk Reduction• Mainstreaming climate change into development• …

First NAPA Project funded by LDCF
Reducing Climate Change-induced Risks and Vulnerabilities
from Glacial Lake Outburst Floodsin the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys

Three Components
1.
2.
3.

Artificial lowering of water level in Thorthormi Lake
Increase capacity for disaster risk management in affected valleys
Installing Technical Early Warning System for glacial lake outburst
floodsLowering water level of Thorthormi Lake

Early Warning System & Disaster Preparation

24 Other potentially dangerous glacial lakes

2nd NAPA Project• Landslide stabilization• Community Based adaptation– Disaster Management– Forest Fire management– Water harvesting• Water inventory• Flood Management• Climate & Weather forecastingGreenhouse Gas Inventory

Per capita Emissions in 2005 (tons CO2 Eq)

BhutanBhutan (with sinks)

2.88
-7.06

World average
DevelopedDeveloping

4.0
11.4
2.1

India
ChinaJapanUSA

1.9
3.9
10.4
24.5

Source:- Bhutan emissions data from 2nd National GHG Inventory, NEC- World data from World Resources Institute- Bhutan population in 2005 = 635,000 (National Census)

2nd National Greenhouse Gas inventory✓ National multi-sectoral task force✓ 30 Members in 5 working groups✓ IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines▪ Indirect through activity/consumption data
▪ Emission = Activity x Emission Factor✓ UNFCCC GHG Inventory Software (MS Excel)✓ Base year for reporting: 2000

Bhutan’s Emissions in 2000
GHG Sources &Sinks

CO2-equiv

CO2CH4N2ONOx

CO

NMVOC

SO2

Energy272.31

262.10

0.38

0.01

1.79

8.99

1.29

0.97

Industrial Processes

237.76237.76

00

00

1.69

0.10

-000

1,005.30

025.85

1.49

0.02

0.41

46.27

0

2.00

0.01

Land-Use Change &Forestry(6,309.60)-6309.60000

Total National
Emissions

1,561.64

534.5

27.3

1.5

1.82

9.40

2.98

1.07

Net NationalEmissions(4,747.96)-5775.1

27.3

1.5Solvent & Other
Product Use
Agriculture
Waste

All figures in giga grams(1 Gigagram = 1 billion grams = 1million kg)

Bhutan GHG Emissions in Year 2000
(Primary GHGs without Land Use Change and Forestry)
GHG Emissions by Source in 2000 (without LUCF)

CO2300262.10237.76

Gg (CO2 Equivalent)

250

200

CO2CH4

N2O

150

N2O100Methane50
25.85
0.38 0.01

0000001.49

02.00 0.01-Energy

Industrial Processes

Solvent & Other
Product Use

Agriculture

Waste

25

Converting all GHG to one common unit
Global Warming Potentials (GWP) in CO2 equivalent

GHG

GWP in CO2 equiv(100 years)

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

1Methane (CH4)21

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

310

26

Bhutan GHG Emissions in Year 2000
(CO2 equivalent without Land Use Change and Forestry)
GHG Emissions CO2 Equivalent in 2000 (without LUCF)
1,200
1,005.30

1,000

Gg

800

600

400
272.31

237.76200
46.27-Energy

Industrial Processes

Solvent & Other
Product Use

Agriculture

Waste

27

Bhutan GHG Emissions in Year 2000
(CO2 equivalent including Land Use Change and Forestry)
GHG Emissions CO2 Equivalent in 2000 (with LUCF)
2,000
1,005.30
1,000272.31

237.76

46.27-Energy(1,000)Industrial Processes

Solvent & Other
Product Use

Agriculture

Waste

Land-Use Change &ForestryGg(2,000)(3,000)(4,000)(5,000)(6,000)(6,309.60)(7,000)28

Breakup of Emissions from Energy Use (2000)

Other sectors
13%
Energy Industries
0%

Manufacturing
Industries
43%

Transport
44%

29

Breakup of Emissions in Industrial Production (2000)

Metal Production(Ferro Alloys)
28%

ChemicalIndustry(CalciumCarbide)
8%

Mineral Products(cement)
64%

30

Breakup of Emissions from Agriculture (2000)
Source of N2O em issions in Agricultural SoilsApplication ofSynthetic
Burning of Crop
Fertilisers
Residue
2%8%\Animal Waste
90%

ManureManagement
17%

Agricultural
Soils
37%

Rice
Cultivation
6%

Field Burningof Agricultural
Residues
Enteric
0%
Fermentation
40%

Survival
Emissions!

31Comparison of Bhutan vs. World Avg.

Total GHGs
90%
80%

77%

World Avg*
Bhutan

70%

60%
50%
40.20%

40%30%

38.80%

28.10%

20%

14%
8%

10%
0%
CO2

CH4

* Source: World Resources Institute

N2O

32

Comparison of Bhutan vs. World Avg.

Sources of GHG
SectorWorld Avg*

BhutanEnergy

61.4%

18.3%

Transport

13.5%

7.8%

Electricity and Heat

24.5%

0%

9%

2.8%

Industry

10.4%

7.7%

Fugitive Emissions

3.9%

0%

Other Fuel Combustion

Industrial Processes

3.4%

10.3%

LUCF

18.2%

0%

Agriculture

13.5%

68.1%

Waste

3.6%

3.1%

* Source: World Resources Institute33

Trends in GHG Emissions
1,200

1,000

Agriculture

Gg of CO2 Equivalent

800(Fossil Fuels)
Energy + Indust600

400

Energy200

Industrial Processes
Waste

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200934

Trends in Bhutan’s Carbon Budget
7,000

6,000

Forest Sequestration
Capacity based onyear 2000 estimate(6309.63Gg)

Gg of CO2 Equivalent

5,000

4,000

Forest Sequestration
Balance as of 2008
4763.85 Gg

3,0002,000

GHG emissions in 2008
1545.79 Gg
Agriculture

1,000

Waste Management
Industrial Processes
Energy1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200835

Bhutan’s Commitment toCombating Climate Change
Bhutan’s declaration to remain Carbon Neutral– Declaration at 15th Conference of Parties to UNFCCC (2009)– National strategy to remain carbon– Requires support of international community

Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan requires 60% forest cover to be
maintained for all times & Environmental Protection
Economic Development Policy emphasises “green growth”• LEDS (Transport, Industries, Human settlement)• NAMAs (Waste, Transport, Energy Efficient buildings)• 11 & 12FYP- Carbon neutral & Climate resilient

Conclusions• Bhutan is not responsible to causing climate change– Emissions are negligible from survival emissions– Sinks provide global service• Yet Bhutan is one of most vulnerable countries– Due to geography, economic development,• Bhutan is still committed to doing its part as a responsible member ofglobal community to combat climate change

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