Training Programmme on Climate Change for Bhutanese Policymakers,
6th Feb 2018, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Adaptation Planning for Building
Resilience in the Himalayan Region inthe Context of Paris Agreement

Binaya Raj Shivakoti

Senior Water and Adaptation Specialist,
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan

Contents• Conceptual discussion• ‘Adaptation’ in the Paris Agreement• Adaptation planning in Himalayan region
Group discussion
Adaptation gap and adaption planning inBhutan
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IGES at a Glance• Established under an initiative of the Japanese
government in 1998 with the support ofKanagawa Prefecture where the IGES
Headquarters is located.
• Aims to bring about a transition to asustainable, resilient, shared, and inclusive
Asia-Pacific region and the world through:••Acting as an Agent of Change
Conducting strategic research to generate collective impact generation with key
stakeholders (co-design and co-production): United Nations organisations,multilateral banks/financial institutes, central/local governments, and the private
sector.

• About 160 professional staffs implement a number of projects funded byvarious organisations.
• A new four-year Integrative Strategic Research Programme for the Seventh
Phase (ISRP 7th Phase) started in July 2017.
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Approach of IGES Adaptation Research

Overarching aim: Building knowledge and capacities for integrated
approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction toreduce vulnerability to climate change in the Asia-Pacific region.

Focuses: Integrated policy/institutional frameworks, risk and vulnerability
assessments, mainstreaming CCA/DRR into policy, and financial instruments
4Conceptual Discussion

5Adaptation, Transformation and Resilience• Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In
human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficialopportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment toexpected climate and its effects.

• Transformation: A change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.
Transformation could reflect strengthened, altered, or aligned paradigms, goals, or values
towards promoting adaptation for sustainable development, including poverty reduction.

• Resilience: The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with ahazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintaintheir essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity foradaptation, learning, and transformation.

Source: IPCC AR56

Scope and Scale of Adaptation to CC

Effort required

Systemtransformation
More substantial adjustments(change in some aspects of system
without complete transformation)

Coping measures(short term responses to deal with projectedclimate change impacts and return to status quo)
Short-term

GoalLong-term

Source: Moser and Ekstrom. 2010. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. www.pnas.org
7Adaptation Measures
ADAPTATION MEASURES
Structural / infrastructure
Financial incentives /subsidies

Institutional, organizational,
administrative

Legal/Legislative

Regulatory

Research andDevelopment

Education, Capacity
building, awareness

Taxes, tariffs, user fees

Market Mechanism

Technological changes

Autonomous adjustments

Exogenous adaptation

Inbuilt

RoutineNo-regretadaptation

TacticalMaladaptation

Behavioural
Prevention of losses

Tolerating losses

Spreading/sharing
lossesChanging
use/activities

Changing location

Restoration

Strategies
Long-term

Mid-term

Contingency(Short-term
extremes)

Analytical (allscales)

Source: based on IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, 1994
8Adaptation in the Broader Context of SocioEcological System (SES)

Source: Ostrom et al, 2009. Science 325:419
9Enhancing Resilience of Socio-ecological
System
SES properties to be managed
1.
2.
3.

Maintain diversity and redundancy
Manage connectivity
Manage slow variables and feedbacks

4.

Foster an understanding of SES ascomplex adaptive systems (CAS)
Encourage learning and experimentation
Broaden participation
Promote polycentric governancesystems

Governance system
5.
6.
7.

* Resilience of ecosystem services (ES) is the capacity of a socio-ecological system (SES) tosustain a desired set of ES in the face of disturbance and ongoingchanges in SES
Source: Biggs et al. 2012. Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience ofEcosystem Services, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2012. 37:421–48

10‘Adaptation’ in the ParisAgreement

11Adaptation in the Paris agreement• At 21st COP, the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted by consensus on 12
December 2015. 174 Parties have ratified the agreement (out of 197
Parties to the Convention)• Establishes Global Goal on Adaptation (Article 7)“enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing
vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable
development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context
of the temperature goal (2 °C & 1.5 °C ) referred to in Article 2”.

• All Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts tothe global response to climate change, including for adaptation,
through nationally determined contributions (NDCs)
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NDCs’ Adaptation Priorities of HimalayanCounties(Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan)• Capacity (research, information, adaptation technologies, monitoring,vulnerability assessment, planning)• Improved early warning systems, disaster preparedness and protection
measures• Forest, biodiversity, ecosystem conservation• Water resources and climate resilient infrastructure• Climate resilient/smart agriculture• Climate resilient Health

Source: UNFCCC
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Paris Agreement:
Key Adaptation Provisions and their Interlinkages

Source: UNEP The Adaptation Gap Report 201714

Paris Agreement:
Reviewing Progress of Global Adaptation Goals

Source: UNEP The Adaptation Gap Report 201715

Adaptation Planning in the MountainousRegion

16Key Adaptation Issues in the Mountainous
Region of Asia (from IPCC AR5 WGII)• Shrinking mountain glaciers, melting of permafrost,and enhanced risk of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF)• Flash floods, slope-failures• Vulnerability of mountain communities, farming systems,ecosystems and biodiversity;

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Common Adaptation Challenges in the
Mountainous Region of Asia

• The region hosts five climatically vulnerable Least DevelopedCountries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar) inAsia
 Poverty and subsistence livelihood
 High dependency on climate sensitive sectors (water resources,agriculture) High exposure to higher climatic risk and often without safetynets.
 High vulnerability and low adaptive capacity (human,technical, financial)18

Mountain Specificities:

What Makes Mountainous Areas Different From Other Regions
Inaccessibility /remoteness
Fragility

Overall terrain condition (slope, altitude, distance), seasonal hazards(landslides, snow, storms), limited mobility (isolation, communication)
High bio-physical sensitivity to external/human interventions

Marginality

Area, people and their sustenance system with limited options andcapacities

Diversity/Heterogeneity

Immense variability among and within eco-zones (climate, terrain,lifestyles, biodiversity etc)

Niche / Comparativeadvantage

Scope for numerous specialized activities and products due to specificenvironmental and resource related features

Human adaptation
mechanisms

Evolution of own adaptation mechanism influenced by constraints andopportunities

Consideration of these mountain specificities are important for adaptation
planning in the Himalayan region
Source: ICIMOD, 1992
19Limits of Adaptation
Adaptation has its limits, and likely intensification of the impacts of CC
necessitate alternative planning strategies beyond short term coping
measures and autonomous adjustments

Source: IGES. 2015. Climate change, changing rainfall and increasing water scarcity: An integrated approach forplanning adaptation and building resilience of smallholder subsistence livelihoods in Nepal
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Adaptation Planning for Resilience Building• Enhancing resilience of a socio-ecological system as a holisticplanning strategy is essential to deal with systemic dynamics andcomplexity.

• Enhancing of resilience encompasses both the capacity to adapt
and capacity to cross thresholds (i.e, transformative adaptation);• While such a holistic planning has its own barriers for

implementation (time, resources, scale, regulation etc.), it isprudent to identify conditions that would leverage initiation oftransformative actions.
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Focus on Adaptation Effectiveness• Adaptation decisions will continue to be made withimperfect knowledge because of future climatic
uncertainty• Most of the adaptation activities focus on input andprocess involved and often fail to make direct connection
to the intended final results/outcomes/contribution.

• Evaluation/contribute to results/outcomes andeffectiveness of adaptation actions to enhance adaptive
capacity, reducing vulnerability, and improving resilience isnecessary in future adaptation planning.
Source: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 201722

Planning: an example of adaptive policy making
Making an adaptive policy(policy design and implementation)
Identify policy options
that perform well under
anticipated futurecondition
Automatic policy
adjustment
Anticipated condition

Enabling self-organizationand social networking
Decentralization of decision
makingPromoting variations
Formal policy review,continuous
improvement andlearning
Unanticipated condition

Laying foundation for an adaptive policy (policy setup)
Defining the policy• Understand issue• Set policy goals• Identify performancetargets and indicators• Develop policy option

Identify factors thatwill affect policy
performance

Define scenarios forthe plausible
evolution of key
factors and test
policy option

Integrative and forward looking analysis

Multi-stakeholder’s deliberations
Source: Swanson and Bhadwal. 2009. Creating adaptive policies: a guide for policy-making in an uncertain world, Sage Publication

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Group discussion:
Adaptation Gap and Planning in Bhutan• What are the main adaptation gaps?
• Measures to overcome adaptation gaps
• Planning for enhancing resilience and preparing for a transformativeadaptation• How to enhance the effectiveness of adaptation actions in Bhutan?

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Question 1:
What are the main adaptation gapsin Bhutan(Knowledge, Technology, and Finance)“The adaptation gap can be defined generically as the difference between actually implementedadaptation and a societally set goal, determined largely by preferences related to tolerated climatechange impacts, and reflecting resource limitations and competing priorities”
25Question 2:
Ways to over overcome those gaps
(Initiated, planned, and yet to beaddressed)

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Question 3:
Planning for enhancing resilience andpreparing for a transformative
adaptation(limits of adaptation, system componentsthat need to be transformed, governancesystem, including planning, which has tostrengthened)27

Question 4:
How to enhance the effectiveness ofadaptation actions in Bhutan?
(contributions of actions in reducing
vulnerability, enhancing resilience, andincreasing adaptive capacity, monitoring
and assessment of the progress onadaptation, reporting)28

Kadinchey la!!
ご清聴ありがとうございました！！
Thank you very much for your kind attention!!

For further inquiries and reference materials used in this presentations:shivakoti@iges.or.jp

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