Analysis on biomass in
National Energy andClimate Plans

Final Report – with AnnexesContract details
Fern
Analysis on biomass in National Energy and Climate Plans

Presented by
Trinomics B.V.
Westersingel 343014 GS Rotterdam
The Netherlands

Contact person
Mr. Matthew Smith
T: +31(0)6 1292 9246
E: matthew.smith@trinomics.eu

Authors
Matthew Smith, Anna Kralli, Peter Lemoine (Trinomics)
Date
Rotterdam, 2nd March 2021

Acknowledgements

This work was commissioned by Fern, with funding from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation andthe European Union. The contents of the report are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in noway be taken to reflect the opinions of any of the donors.

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Rotterdam, 2 March 2021
Client: Fern
Analysis on biomass in National Energy and Climate Plans

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

CONTENTS
1Introduction .......................................................................................11
Biomass use for energy ....................................................................... 11
Subsidies for biomass ......................................................................... 12
EU regulations and biomass .................................................................. 15
Aims, methodology and structure of the report ......................................... 16

2

Relevant requirements for the NECPs for biomass deployment ........................18

3

Analysis ............................................................................................22
Biomass deployment trajectories ........................................................... 22
3.1.1

Electricity ................................................................................................ 22

3.1.2

Heat ...................................................................................................... 26

3.1.3

Biomass availability and uses ......................................................................... 30

Policies and measures......................................................................... 30
Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 34

4

Conclusions ........................................................................................36

Annex A – Country factsheets ......................................................................38
1

Country: Austria ..................................................................................38
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 38
1.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 38

1.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 39

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 40
1.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 40

1.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 40

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 41

2

1.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 41

1.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 42

Country: Belgium .................................................................................43
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 43
2.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 43

2.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 44

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 45i.

Current policies ........................................................................................... 45

2.2.1

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 46

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 46

3

2.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 46

2.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 46

Country: Bulgaria ................................................................................47

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 47
3.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 47

3.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 50

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 50
3.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 50

3.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 51

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 51

4

3.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 51

3.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 52

Country: Croatia..................................................................................53
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 53
4.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 53

4.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 55

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 55
4.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 55

4.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 57

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 58

5

4.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 58

4.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 59

Country: Czech Republic .......................................................................60
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 60
5.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 60

5.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 61

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 62
5.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 62

5.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 62

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 63

6

5.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 63

5.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 63

Country: Germany ...............................................................................65
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 65
6.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 65

6.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 68

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 68
6.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 68

6.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 68

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 68

7

6.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 68

6.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 70

Country: Denmark ...............................................................................72

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 72
7.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 72

7.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 73

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 74
7.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 74

7.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 74

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 75

8

7.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 75

7.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 75

Country: Estonia..................................................................................76
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 76
8.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 76

8.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 77

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 78

b.

9

8.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 78

8.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 78

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 78
8.2.3

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 78

8.2.4

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 79

Country: Finland .................................................................................80
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 80
9.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................... 80

9.1.2

Supply of biomass ....................................................................................... 82

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 83
9.2.1

Current policies ......................................................................................... 83

9.2.2

Planned policies ........................................................................................ 83

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 83

10

9.3.1

Historic impacts ......................................................................................... 83

9.3.2

Estimated future impacts.............................................................................. 84

Country: France ................................................................................86
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 86
10.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................. 86

10.1.2

Supply of biomass ..................................................................................... 88

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 89
10.2.1

Current policies ....................................................................................... 89

10.2.2

Planned policies ....................................................................................... 89

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 89

11

10.3.1

Historic impacts ....................................................................................... 89

10.3.2Estimated future impacts ............................................................................ 89

Country: Greece ...............................................................................91

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 91
11.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................. 91

11.1.2

Supply of biomass ..................................................................................... 93

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 93
11.2.1

Current policies ....................................................................................... 93

11.2.2

Planned policies ....................................................................................... 94

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 95

1211.3.1

Historic impacts ....................................................................................... 95

11.3.2Estimated future impacts ............................................................................ 95

Country: Hungary ..............................................................................96
Biomass deployment trajectory ............................................................. 96
12.1.1

Demand for biomass .................................................................................. 96

12.1.2

Supply of biomass ..................................................................................... 98

Biomass policies and measures .............................................................. 99
12.2.1

Current policies ....................................................................................... 99

12.2.2

Planned policies ....................................................................................... 99

Impacts of planned policies and measures ................................................ 99

13

12.3.1

Historic impacts ....................................................................................... 99

12.3.2Estimated future impacts ............................................................................ 99

Country: Ireland.............................................................................. 101
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 101
13.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 101

13.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 103

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 103
13.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 103

13.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 104

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 104

1413.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 104

13.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 105

Country: Italy ................................................................................. 108
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 108
14.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 108

14.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 110

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 111
14.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 111

14.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 111

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 111

15

14.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 111

14.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 112

Country: Latvia ............................................................................... 114

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 114
15.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 114

15.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 116

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 116
15.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 116

15.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 117

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 117

16

15.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 117

15.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 118

Country: Lithuania........................................................................... 120
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 120
16.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 120

16.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 122

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 123
16.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 123

16.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 123

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 124
16.3.1

17

Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 124

Country: Netherlands ....................................................................... 125
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 125
17.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 125

17.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 126

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 127
17.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 127

17.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 127

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 127

1817.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 127

17.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 128

Country: Poland .............................................................................. 129
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 129
18.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 129

18.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 131

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 131
18.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 131

18.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 132

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 132

1918.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 132

18.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 133

Country: Portugal ............................................................................ 134
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 134

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

19.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 134

19.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 136

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 136
19.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 136

19.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 136

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 137

20

19.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 137

19.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 137

Country: Romania ............................................................................ 138
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 138
20.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 138

20.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 139

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 140
20.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 140

20.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 140

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 140

21

20.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 140

20.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 141

Country: Slovakia ............................................................................ 142
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 142
21.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 142

21.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 144

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 144
21.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 144

21.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 144

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 145

2221.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 145

21.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 145

Country: Slovenia ............................................................................ 146
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 146
22.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 146

22.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 148

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 149
22.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 149

22.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 149

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 150

2322.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 150

22.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 151

Country: Spain ................................................................................ 152
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 152

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

23.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 152

23.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 153

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 154
23.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 154

23.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 154

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 154

24

23.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 154

23.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 154

Country: Sweden ............................................................................. 156
Biomass deployment trajectory ........................................................... 156
24.1.1

Demand for biomass ................................................................................. 156

24.1.2

Supply of biomass .................................................................................... 158

Biomass policies and measures ............................................................ 159
24.2.1

Current policies ...................................................................................... 159

24.2.2

Planned policies ...................................................................................... 160

Impacts of planned policies and measures .............................................. 160
24.3.1

Historic impacts ...................................................................................... 160

24.3.2Estimated future impacts ........................................................................... 161

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

1 Introduction
Biomass use for energy
EU renewable energy policies consider bioenergy as a renewable form of energy. Today, bioenergy
accounts for around 55 percent of renewable energy in the EU1, and woody biomass provides the lion
share (75%) of bioenergy energy consumption in the EU. While traditionally used for firewood and as a
cooking fuel, in the last decades there has been significant growth in industrial scale uses of biomass
for energy in many EU Member States. Policies are based on the premise that bioenergy is renewable,
as it is assumed that future growth of plants and trees compensate for the CO2 released at the point of
combustion, through photosynthesis2. Also, as it is a dispatchable energy source, it has advantages
compared to other renewable sources (e.g. wind energy) in matching the production of energy toenergy demand3. The variety of the end uses of bioenergy, for instance for electricity and heating
purposes as well as fuel for transportation, makes the use of biomass an attractive alternative solution
to fossil fuels.
However, bioenergy has negative environmental impacts. Importantly, the carbon impact of biomass
use for energy is the subject of a significant and complex debate, with considerable evidence
suggesting that the potential for bioenergy to reduce emissions in a timeframe relevant for climatechange mitigation is uncertain and depends on many factors4. Scale, counterfactuals, conversion
efficiencies and the choice of feedstock significantly affect the carbon impact of bioenergy; forinstance, in the case of forest biomass, the effect of bioenergy harvests on forest carbon stocks andsinks is an important factor. Furthermore, bioenergy production has been shown in some cases to leadto water stress and soil erosion, while it can also have negative effects on biodiversity, resource
efficiency and air quality5. To reduce or avoid these negative impacts it is important that policies
provide sustainability principles and criteria.
Box 1: Biomass and Bioenergy
In this work we focus on (primary) solid biomass used for electricity and heating. We do not include biogases nor
bioliquids in our scope. Unless otherwise stated, when the term biomass is used in this report we are referring to
only solid biomass. In energy statistics there are five types of solid biomass, namely: fuelwood, black liquor,
bagasse, animal waste and vegetal waste. More than 80% of the solid biomass produced in the EU is fuelwood,and around 15% is black liquor, a by product of the paper manufacturing process.
The term bioenergy is used when referring to the wider energy related uses of biological materials, therefore
including biogases and bioliquids, in this report we also use this definition, but also restrict the scope toelectricity and heating. Bioenergy for transport uses is not included in the scope of our work.

1

Calculated based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
EIA (2020) Biomass explained.
Lovegrove, K., James, G., Leitch, D., Milczarek A., Ngo, A., Rutovitz, J., Watt, M. and Wyder, J.
2018b, Levelised cost calculator, Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Canberra,
https://arena.gov.au/projects/comparison-of-dispatchable-renewable-electricity-options/4
See amongst others JRC (2014) Carbon accounting of forest bioenergy
5Wu, Y., Zhao, F., Liu, S., Wang, L., Qiu, L., Alexandrov, G., & Jothiprakash, V. (2018). Bioenergy production andenvironmental impacts. Geoscience Letters, 5(1), 14.
2311

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Subsidies for biomass
Biomass subsidies in the EU are increasing over time... As shown in Table 1-1, biomass subsidies forthe 14 EU countries increased from €4.5 billion in 2015 to €5.3 billion in 2017. Data for the years 2018and 2019 are incomplete but suggest continued increases in the most recent years. For Group 1
countries, which have the most complete data for 2015-2019, Figure 1-1 shows that subsidies haveincreased from around €2.5 billion in 2015 to more than €3.0 billion in 2019.
…but the picture varies considerably per EU member state. The Netherlands showed the highest
percentage increase in biomass subsidies from €23 million in 2015 to €242 million in 2019, followed by
Ireland which raised its biomass support from €4 to €16 million between the years 2015 and 2017. Italy,
France, Slovakia and Denmark are also among the countries that increased their subsidies for biomass,
while Poland, Sweden and Finland showed a decreasing trend over the years. Other countries, such as
Germany, Portugal and Austria, maintained their level of support relatively constant, registering only asmall decline.
Table 1-1 Biomass subsidies for 14 EU Member States
Biomass subsidies (EUR million)

Country
2015

Country
Group 1

2017

2018

2019
104

Denmark

55

64

85

79

France

587

680

662

765

841

Germany

1 859

1 924

1 805

1 754

1 856

Netherlands
Sub-totalCountry
Group 2

2016

23

51

114

192

242

2 524

2 719

2 666

2 791

3 044

260

Austria

283

275

277

Belgium

279

309

338

Finland

79

47

46

35

Ireland

4

9

16

Italy

242

740

887

Poland80

39

22

Portugal

86

80

86

77

Slovakia

52

67

72

72

Spain

781

948

802

864

Sweden

60

53

39

50

Sub-total

1 946

2 567

2 585

2 208

Total

4 470

5 285

5 251

4 999

849

3 044

Sources: The data for the biomass subsidies has been extracted from two studies commissioned for the NRDC in
20196 and 20207 - please refer to these reports for the definition of subsidies used, but in general terms the subsidies
covered include direct transfers (soft loans, grants, other), tax expenditures (tax reductions, tax exemptions, tax
refunds, tax credits, tax allowances, other), and indirect transfers (including: under-pricing of government owned
land, resources, infrastructure or other government provided goods/services; and also income or prices supports e.g.
payments, mandates, quotas, tradable certificates, obligations, differentiated charges, feed-in-tariffs/premiums,
price guarantees, other). In the study of 2019, subsidies for solid biomass – defined similarly to this study, with a6
7

Trinomics et al. (2019) Financial support for electricity generation & CHP from solid Biomass
Trinomics et al. (2020) Financial support for electricity generation & CHP from solid Biomass-Updated report 2020

12

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

focus only on solid biomass used for electricity and heat production - were mapped for 14 EU Member States (plusthe UK) for the period 2015-2018, while the study of 2020 includes updated subsidy inventories for 4 out of these 14
countries for the period 2015-2019 (country group 1). The table above depicts a reconciliation of the two studies
splitting the countries into two groups, the 4 countries updated in 2020 and the 10 countries from the 2019 study.
Figure 1-1 Total biomass subsidies for the two country groups based on the data of the studies NRDC 2020 and
NRDC 2019 (EUR 2018 million)★ The values for 2018 are not complete, missing data for Poland, Belgium and Ireland

The biomass share of total renewable energy subsidies is increasing in many Member States. By
comparing the share of biomass subsidies to the total subsidies for renewable energy, it was observedthat on average 4 countries provided more than 10% of their subsidies to biomass and 3 countries morethan 20% (Table 1-2). The Netherlands and Italy significantly increased their shares from 2% in 2015 to
8% in 2017 and from 2% in 2015 to 6% in 2016 respectively. On the other hand, Finland decreased its
biomass share from 35% to 24% and 30% in 2016 compared to 2015 figures, while small reductions werealso recorded in the respective period for Poland and Portugal.
Table 1-2 Biomass share in RES subsidies
CountryCountry
Group 1Country
Group 2

Biomass as % of total RES subsidies
2015

2016

2017

2018

Denmark

4%

5%

6%

7%

France

11%

13%

12%

14%

Germany

7%

7%

6%

6%

Netherlands

2%

4%

8%

12%

Austria

26%

23%

Belgium

20%

22%

Finland35%

24%

Ireland

4%

6%

Italy

2%

6%

Poland8%

6%Portugal

9%

7%

Slovakia

11%

14%

Spain

8%

12%

Sweden

16%

14%

13

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Sources: Own calculations based on Trinomics et al. (2019) and (2020), and total RES subsidy data from Trinomics etal (2020)8

The majority of the EU Member States have significantly increased their total bioenergy subsidies
since 2008. Table 1-3 provides an overview of the total bioenergy subsidies9 (see Box 1-1 for definitionof bioenergy) for 24 EU Member States in the period 2008-2018. 4 countries (i.e. Bulgaria, Denmark,Estonia and Ireland) increased their bioenergy subsidies more than x10 between 2008 and 2018, while
Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia and France also considerably increased their bioenergy subsidies in
the respective years. On the other hand, the Netherlands and Finland kept subsidising bioenergy as awhole at a relatively steady rate.
By looking at the development of the bioenergy subsidies for the Member States with the largest
amounts of subsidies 10 (Figure 1-2), we see that Germany and Italy continuously increased their support
until 2016, whilst in Belgium subsidies have been quite similar since 2010. One exception is Austria,
which ranks among the top bioenergy subsidisers but is the only country that decreased its subsidies,
which were 13% lower in 2018 compared to the 2008 values.
Table 1-3 Bioenergy subsidies for 24 EU Member States for the period 2008-2018

Bioenergy subsidies (EUR million)
Countries
Change20082018
-13%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Austria

418

405

403

394

415

406

381

388

373

369

362

Belgium

327

352

413

404

454

436

364

405

427

421

371

13%
1583%

Bulgaria

2

1

5

7

8

14

24

32

43

46

40

Croatia

0

1

3

6

13

20

27

41

67

80

105

485%

Czechia

76

100

191

247

314

374

421

430

449

477

444

Germany

2,098

2,563

3,774

4,297

5,480

6,159

6,666

7,045

7,307

7,054

7,105

239%

Denmark

33

246

158

144

282

276

364

444

488

468

394

1101%

Estonia

3

21

41

53

58

38

41

44

44

50

56

1646%

Finland

31

51

43

72

79

63

57

83

60

45

33

7%

France

66

250

348

353

335

327

282

310

346

337

392

491%
821%

Greece

3

3

4

3

2

12

10

13

19

25

29

Hungary

79

92

92

83

60

76

114

114

112

134

130

64%

Ireland

1

4

4

5

7

9

10

24

48

50

52

5491%

1,283

1,298

1,436

1,673

1,909

2,519

2,822

2,944

3,271

2,960

2,618

104%

Latvia

14

18

24

33

64

82

94

95

81

101

96

567%

Lithuania

0

0

5

6

10

15

20

21

24

23

24

-

Netherlands

348

348

400

402

371

320

296

321

352

363

362

4%

0

0

0

0

4

5

5

18

30

79

67

-

Italy

PolandPortugal

86

256

330

296

347

395

207

172

204

170

156

81%

Romania

0

0

0

0

0

0

44

37

21

14

15

-

Slovakia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-

Slovenia

0

0

0

0

16

19

22

26

29

24

23

-

Spain

1,061
0

1,147
0

1,348
0

1,518
0

1,409
0

945
0

969
0

835
0

1,120
0

1,173
0

27%

Sweden

923
0

-

Total

5,792

7,072

8,820

9,827

11,745

12,976

13,217

13,976

14,62914,40914,046143%

8
9

Trinomics et al (2020) Study on energy costs, taxes and the impact of government interventions on investments
Note that bioenergy subsidies here also include subsidies for energy uses in transport
Considering their total bioenergy subsidies throughout the period 2008-2018

1014

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Trinomics et al (2020)11
Note: The subsidy values in this table do not exactly match those presented earlier in this section, including forexample no subsidies being identified in Sweden or Slovakia. Part of the difference is that this table also includes
subsidies for bioenergy (such as biogas), including bioenergy in transport. We recommend that the earlier tables aretreated as more accurate as these were based on a more recent data gathering exercise and specific to the use ofsolid biomass for electricity and heat production in these countries.
Figure 1-2 Bioenergy subsidies development for the Member States with the largest amounts of subsidies (20082018)

EU regulations and biomass
The revised RED Directive (RED II) proposes a set of policy measures to achieve a 32% renewable energy
share from energy consumed by the electricity, heating and cooling, and transportation sectors by
203012. The directive specifies national renewable energy targets for each country, which range from
10% in Malta to 49% in Sweden, and which takes into account each country’s potential for renewables13.
Following the European Green Deal and the Climate Target Plan, the European Commission will review
the RED II and other relevant climate regulations, including the EU ETS and the LULUCF Regulation.
These reviews are all likely to lead to increased targets for renewable energy and GHG emissions
reduction.
Under RED II, a series of sustainability and GHG emission criteria for bioenergy are established. For
forest biomass, the RED II directive defines sustainability criteria, which primarily address sustainable
forest management, accounting of biomass emissions in the Land Use Land-Use Change and Forestry(LULUCF) sector, and efficiency of power and CHP installations14. The RED II directive does not restrict
the scale of deployment of forest biomass or the use of specific forest biomass feedstocks. The

11

Trinomics et al. (2020) Energy costs, taxes and the impact of government interventions on investments
European Commission (2020) Renewable energy directive
13
European Commission (2019) Renewable Energy – Recast to 2030 (RED II)
14
REHVA (2020) Renewable Energy Directive (RED, RED II
12

15

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

effectiveness of the current criteria in the RED II directive to mitigate negative effects – notably toensure timely emissions reductions - has been questioned.15,16
In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating
greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into
its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework17. The LULUCF regulation was adopted by the EU in December
201718 and it requires Member States to ensure that, allowing for certain flexibilities, accounted GHG
emissions from land use, land use change or forestry (LULUCF) are balanced by at least an equivalentamount of removal of CO2 from the atmosphere between 2021 and 203019. Moreover, the regulation
establishes that all sectors should contribute to the EU’s 2030 emission reduction target. Furthermore,
to address previous criticism, emissions from an increase in biomass in energy production will berecorded and accounted towards each Member State’s 2030 climate commitments through theapplication of accounting in LULUCF20. Improving the accounting of biomass emissions in the land sector(at the point of harvest) demonstrates the intention to justify the zero-rating of biomass emissions
under the EU Emission Trading System, which avoids emissions being double counted. Nevertheless,there remain concerns that the LULUCF Regulation can allow for increased forest biomass production
both inside and outside the EU for energy uses in the EU without fully accounting related GHG
emissions, particularly due to issues with the setting of Forest Reference Levels and geographicalboundaries21.
The Governance Regulation is a legal mechanism that provides a new governance framework for the
EU’s 2030 climate and energy objectives. Under this regulation, Member States were obliged to submit
integrated 2030 National Climate- and Energy Plans (NECPs), in which they should outline theircontribution to achieve the collective EU targets. This includes how they will meet the national targets
set under RED II. For forest biomass, these plans should reveal the role of biomass in different sectors,
and possible related trade-offs, such as regarding the contribution of the LULUCF sector. The specificrequirements are further detailed in chapter 2. Member States submitted their draft NECPs in 2019 andfollowing review by the EC revised final NECPs were submitted in 2020, these final NECPs are the key
documents analysed in this report.

Aims, methodology and structure of the report
The main aim of this report is to provide an overview of the planned use of forest biomass for heating
and cooling and electricity generating purposes, as described by 24 of the 27 Member States (MS) of theEU (the three missing MS are Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus – each of which have negligible biomass use
in EU terms) in their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). Moreover, the report also aims toreveal information gaps in the NECPs and underpin the importance of full transparency of MS on the15

See, e.g., R. Matthews, G. Hogan, and E. Mackie, Carbon impacts of biomass consumed in the EU: supplementary
analysis and interpretation for the European Climate Foundation, Forest Research (2018); and Forest Research (2020)
Assessment of the EU LULUCF Regulation.
16
FERN (2020) Assessment of EU LULUCF Regulation
17
Nabuurs, G.J., E.J.M.M. Arets, J.-P. Lesschen and M.J. Schelhaas, 2018. Effects of the EU-LULUCF regulation on
the use of biomass for bio-energy. Wageningen, Wageningen Environmental Research, Report 2886. 68 pp.; 27 fig.; 2tab.; 33 ref.
18
Ibid.
19
European Commission (n.d.) Land use and forestry regulation for 2021-2030
20
Ibid.
21
Assessment of EU LULUCF Regulation (2020)

16

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

plans to use solid biomass as a resource for renewable energy, because of the various possible
associated negative impacts.
In order to map the activities in relation to the use of solid biomass for heat and power production in
Europe, the following 4 tasks have been delivered. First, the deployment trajectories of solid biomass
have been analysed through the extraction of relevant data from Eurostat. Second, current and planned
policies and measures have been analysed through the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of NECPs
of each Member State. Third, impacts of the planned policies and measures have been identified inaddition to LULUCF implications, where applicable. Finally, the findings of the analysis are reported,with particular emphasis on any lack of transparency or ambiguity on the impacts of policies.

17

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

2 Relevant requirements for the NECPs forbiomass deployment
As set out in Annex I of the Governance Regulation, the general framework for the integrated NECPs
should include:(Section A: National Plan, 2.1.ii) estimated trajectories on bioenergy demand, disaggregatedbetween heat, electricity and transport, and on biomass supply by feedstock and origin(distinguishing between domestic production and imports). For forest biomass, an assessmentof its source and impact on the LULUCF sink is also required.

Additionally, (in 3.1.2.i or 3.1.2.vii) where applicable, specific measures on the promotion of
the use of energy from biomass need to be detailed, especially for new biomass mobilisation
taking into account:oBiomass availability, including sustainable biomass: both domestic potential andimports from third countries;oOther biomass uses by other sectors (agriculture and forest-based sectors); as well as
measures for the sustainability of biomass production and use.



Finally, (under 5.1.i) impact assessments of planned policies and measures, as described in
section 3, projections of development of the energy system and GHG emissions and removals
as well as air pollutants under the planned policies and measures at least until 10 years after
the period covered by the plan are required, as are policy interactions at national and EU
level.

The following table provides an overview of the extent to which each of these requirements have beenaddressed, as assessed by our experts, in the final NECPs. A high-level assessment procedure wasconducted due to diversity on the level of information provided in the NECPs of the in-scope Member
States. More specifically, the aim was to assess whether a country addresses all the elements of therequired sections under the Governance Regulation, regardless the level of detail the Member State
provides. Table 2-1 below summarises the results of this assessment, applying a “traffic light” system
to score the assessed compliance with the NECP requirements; a green bullet indicates that an NECP
was assessed to provide adequate information to address the specific requirement (e.g., biomass supply
and feedstocks origin), hence it fully complied. The orange bullet represents an assessment that there
are gaps in the way the specific requirement is addressed, such as (for 2.1.iv) mentioning the sources
and the potential of forest biomass but not its impact on the LULUCF sink (hence it is partiallycomplied). Finally, the red bullet indicates that the NECP provides no information for the specificrequirement (hence not complied).
The table shows that most Member States are assessed to provide sufficient information on trajectories
disaggregated per sector (2.1.ii) with 20 of 24 MS assessed to fully comply, 3 MS to partially comply,
and 1 (the Netherlands) deemed not to comply, as whilst some basic information on renewableelectricity trajectories are provided there is very little useful breakdown by technology andquantitative information on heating and cooling is lacking22. Regarding biomass supply by feedstocks
and origin (2.1.iv), there are significant deficiencies in the information. More specifically, even though
22

Reference was made in the NECP to ongoing policy reviews in which some such information would become
available

18Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

as noted previously, all Member States provide a full or partial projection of future biomass potential,
more than half (13 of 24) do not indicate the origins of the biomass feedstock to be used. Although
there remained significant gaps Member States were more likely to provide more information onwhether the production of biomass occurs domestically or whether they import part, or all, of thebiomass required, with 14 of 24 providing sufficient information. In terms of forest biomass and theimpact on LULUCF sink (also 2.1.iv), significant shortcomings in reporting were found, since almost halfof the countries do not mention any specific information on the subject, while 8 countries only partiallyrefer to it.
In section 3.1.2.vii, most of the Member States have considered and discussed the specific measurestargeting the promotion of biomass for energy uses, nevertheless only a few of them demonstrated thatthey have taken into account biomass availability and other biomass uses.
The impact of planned measures (5.1.i) was typically included in the NECPs, although impacts were notlinked to trajectories of biomass use directly.

19Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 2-1 Assessment of NECP compliance with Governance Regulation requirements for biomass
NECP compliance2.1.ii

2.1.iv

2.1.iv

3.1.2.vii

Biomass supply
Country

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czechia
Germany
Denmark
Estonia
GreeceSpain
FinlandFranceCroatia
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Lithuania
LatviaTrajectories

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

Feedstock origin

Domestic/imports

Forest biomasssource and
LULUCF impact

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

20

5.1.i

Specific measureson the promotionof the use ofenergy frombiomass

Biomass availability
taken into account

Other biomass uses
taken into accountImpact ofplannedmeasures

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

NECP compliance2.1.ii

2.1.iv

2.1.iv

3.1.2.vii

Biomass supply
Country

Netherlands
PolandPortugal
Romania
SwedenSlovenia
Slovakia

5.1.i

Specific measureson the promotionof the use ofenergy frombiomass

Biomass availability
taken into account

Other biomass uses
taken into accountImpact ofplannedmeasuresFeedstock origin

Domestic/imports

Forest biomasssource and
LULUCF impact

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

●
●
●
●
●
●
●

20

10

14

5

18

9

8

18

3

1

0

8

2

0

0

5

1

13

10

11

4

15

16

1

Trajectories

Counts●●●● Fully complied ● Partially complied ● Not complied

21

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

3 Analysis
Biomass deployment trajectories
This section provides two analytical perspectives for electricity and heat:1.

Historic developments in renewable energy and biomass use at EU level since for the years
2000-2018, based on Eurostat energy balances;2.

An insight on estimated future trajectories (to 2030) of renewable energy and biomass use
based on data provided in the NECPs.

3.

An overview of the biomass supply and the feedstock origins provided by the Member States, aswell as of the forest biomass and its impact on LULUCF sink.

3.1.1 Electricity
Historic developments in biomass use
The growth in renewable electricity and the use of biomass in the EU since 2000 is shown in Figure 3-1.
Some of the most relevant insights from this figure are:
 In 2018 total EU electricity production is a little lower than its peak in 2008 – but since 2013 EU
production has grown, and growing electrification of transport, industry and heating could
drive higher electricity production in future.
 Fossil and nuclear power has declined significantly (around -20%) since peaking in 2006,
renewable energy has more than doubled since 2000, especially wind and solar, and this has
filled a large part of the gap.
 The use of bioenergy has grown significantly since 2000 (+415%) but from a small beginning, andgrowth has slowed significantly in recent years.
 Electricity from solid biomass almost quadrupled (+285%) since 2000, but has only grown by 7.7%
since 2013, compared to +53% wind, +39% solar PV, and +16% biogas. Solid biomass contributed
2.6% to total electricity production in 2018, with bioenergy contributing 5.3% and renewables
as a whole 33%.
 Solid biomass provides approximately 50% of the total electricity production from bioenergy.
This share has declined from 65% in 2000, as biogas and other bioenergy sources for electricity
have grown faster than solid biomass.
 The top 5 countries for total electricity production from solid biomass are Finland, Germany,
Sweden, Poland and Denmark, and these account for more than half (56%) of the EU total.
 Solid Biomass is most important for electricity production in Finland, Denmark and Lithuania,
where it contributes more than 10% of the total electricity production.
 Growth in solid biomass use for electricity production is very fast in some EU MS. Since 2013
growth of >100% has been observed in Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia and Estonia. This type of growthis in most cases from a very low level as, aside from Finland, Austria, Sweden and Portugal,
biomass played an insignificant role in electricity generation in 2000. For example in Bulgaria
biomass use for electricity was zero in 2000, but had increased to 1 280 GWh in 2018. A huge
growth but still representing less than 3% of the total electricity produced in Bulgaria.

22Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 3-1 EU gross electricity production per fuel 2000-2018, GWh

Source: Own elaboration, based on Eurostat

Trajectories of biomass use in electricity
A review of the trajectories for biomass use for electricity generation based on the NECPs issummarised in Table 3-1 below. Some of the most relevant insights from this table are:

Trajectories for biomass electricity production are presented by only 10 of the 24 Member
States, and a further 13 MS provide trajectories for bio-electricity (also electricity from bothsolid biomass and biogas) as a whole.

Of the 10 MS that present trajectories for biomass use for electricity only one (Belgium) plansa decrease in biomass use, the others all plan increases, and, for Spain (+110%), Lithuania(+100%) and Slovenia (+170%) very large increases.

For the 23 MS that present trajectories for bio-electricity use, 15 project an increase but 7(Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Latvia and Portugal) project a decrease,
and Romania no change. Very significant planned increases are projected in Greece (+270%),
Croatia (+140%), Spain (+100%), Slovenia (+100%) and Lithuania (+90%). Only the Netherlands
fails to provide a clear picture of the planned development of bioelectricity in its NECP.



Overall, from the NECPs for which numbers are available, summing the projections, a total
increase in RES-E production of around 58.5% is planned by 2030.

At the same time a smaller increase in biomass for electricity of 18% is planned, driven to avery large extent by the high growth planned in Spain23. For the broader category of bioelectricity the picture is more mixed, the more complete data and inclusion of large producers
which plan declines such as Germany and Italy, means a very small decline of around 0.4% isforeseen. Given this finding it may be the case that inclusion of biomass trajectories for the
missing countries would result in a similar result, i.e. a small decline or very little change inelectricity produced from biomass across the EU as a whole.

23 In the NECP target scenario for Spain a growth in Biomass capacity from 613MW in 2020 to 1 408MW in 2030 is foreseen, leading tothis more than doubling of the production of electricity from biomass.

23

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

The relatively small planned growth for biomass for electricity may be driven by relatively highcosts compared to other renewable power technologies. Other studies suggest that whilst thecost of electricity from solid biomass may decrease a little over the next decade, i.e. from
€160/MWh24 to €140/MWh25, that it will be amongst the most expensive electricity generation
technologies.



By 2030 there is some increase in electricity from biomass in a handful of Member States,
especially Spain, but the overall picture for bioenergy, including biomass, is more mixed,with very little change in overall production as significant planned increases in some MS are
offset by declines in other MS, particularly larger MS such as Germany and Italy.

24

Trinomics et 1l (2020) Cost of Energy (LCOE): Energy costs, taxes and the impact of government interventions on
investments
EC (2019) COM 1 Energy prices and costs in Europe

25

24

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 3-1 Summary of biomass, bioenergy and renewable energy trajectories for electricity in NECPs to 2030
NECP provides
trajectory forsolid biomass?

NECP Provides
trajectory forbioenergy?

AT

No

Yes

BE

Yes

Yes

BG

No

Yes

CZ

Yes

Yes

DE

No

DK

No

EE

Yes

Yes

EL

No

Yes

ES

Yes

Yes

FI

No

Yes

FR

No

Yes

HR

No

HU

Country

Bioenergy (including biomass)electricity production [GWh]

Biomass electricity production [GWh]
2020

2030

Change [%]

2020

2030

Renewable electricity (including bioenergy)
production [GWh]

Change2020

2030

Change [%]

5 000

6 000

20.0%

57 00079 000

38.6%

5 430

3 395

-37.5%

23 83038 024

59.6%

1 113

1 627

46.2%

8 673

13 035

50.3%

4 825

4 167

-13.6%

9 820

12 693

29.3%

Yes

46 52034 890-25.0%

244 230

372 160

52.4%

Yes

7 257

6 269

-13.6%

30 18051 684

71.3%

1 150

1 200

4.3%

1 990

4 325

117.3%

425

1 575

270.6%

17 70638 086115.1%

5 570

11 235101.7%

121 034

264 840118.8%

14 000

16 00014.3%

36 00050 000

38.9%

9 000

9 000

0.0%

155 000

210 000

35.5%

Yes

508

1 223

140.7%

9 025

13 058

44.7%

No

Yes

2 332

3 229

38.5%

4 682

11 190139.0%

IE

Yes

Yes

188.8%

IT

No

Yes

LT

Yes

Yes

LV

No

Yes

5 430
2 194

1 150
4 757

337
292

3 395
2 497

1 200
10 031384
583-37.5%
13.8%

4.3%
110.9%

13.8%
99.6%

523

861

64.4%

10 23429 55219 30015 700-18.7%

113 100

186 700

65.1%

502

950

89.1%

2 211

6 050

173.6%

1 000

650-35.0%

7 700

8 200

6.5%

NL

No

No

PL

Yes

Yes

11 29315 875

40.6%

39 19363 884

63.0%

PT

No

Yes

2 750

2 160

-21.5%

32 45057 600

77.5%

RO

No

Yes

900

900

0.0%

25 91636 928

42.5%

SE

Yes

Yes

15 000

16 000

6.7%

16 00017 000

6.3%

100 000

120 000

20.0%

SI

Yes

Yes

151

407

169.2%

291

582

100.0%

5 164

7 257

40.5%

SK

Yes

Yes

1 045

1 100

5.3%

1 981

2 540

28.2%

7 222

9 652

33.6%

Total

10

23

39 91747 23818.3%

157 671

157 027-0.4%

1 062 360

1 683 918

58.5%

9 560

11 642

21.8%

Source: Own elaboration based on NECPs.
Note: Italic values e.g. for Belgium and Estonia, represent values listed as biomass with no other bioelectricity sources noted, therefore the bioenergy total is assumed to be the same as forbiomass.

25

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

3.1.2 HeatHistoric developments in biomass use
The growth in renewable heat and the use of biomass in the EU since 2000 is shown in Figure 3-2. Someof the most relevant insights from this figure are:
 Between 2004 and 2019 EU final consumption for heating and cooling has declined by 13% toaround 5.4 million GWh per year - but since a low in 2014 has grown a little.
 Heat from fossil sources has declined faster than total, declining by around -23%, renewablesources, especially biomass, have largely filled the gap.
 Renewable heat has increased by 64% since 2004, to provide around 22.1% of all heat. Bioenergy
makes by far the largest contribution to renewable heat, especially solid biomass, which in2019 delivered around 76% of the total renewable heat in the EU.
 Heat pumps are the second largest source of renewable heat, and are amongst the fastest
growing of all the renewable heat technologies. Other bioenergy sources, solar thermal andwaste contribute only minimally, although each are growing faster than biomass since 2015.
 The top 5 countries for final heat consumption from solid biomass are Germany, France, Sweden,
Finland and Italy, and these account for almost 54% of the EU total. Solid Biomass is mostimportant for heat consumption in Lithuania (56%), France (52%) and Finland (46%).
 Growth in solid biomass use for heat production is very fast in some EU Member States, since2013 growth of >60% has been observed in Cyprus, Slovakia, Malta, Luxembourg and theNetherlands, although only in Slovakia and the Netherlands is the increase significant in
absolute terms.
 11 Member States have registered declines in the use of solid biomass for heating since 2013,
including Hungary (-29%), Slovenia (-19%), Greece (-15%), Germany (-12%) and Austrria,
Belgium, France, Croatia, Italy, Portugal and Romania (all less than -10%).
 It should be noted that due to difficulties and gaps in reporting it is likely that the use of
firewood (solid biomass) is under-reported in many countries26, so the actual contribution ofsolid biomass is likely to be higher than shown in the figure.
Figure 3-2 EU final heating and cooling consumption per fuel 2000-2019, GWh

7000000

MSW renewable

6000000

Solar Thermal

5000000

Geothermal

4000000

Heat pumps

3000000

Other bioenergy(charcoal, bioliquids,
biofuels)
Biogas2000000
1000000

Solid Biomass

0

Fossil fuels

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 201926

JRC (2018) Biomass production, supply, uses and flows in the European Union

26

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Trajectories of biomass use in heating and cooling
Table 3-2 provides an overview of the planned developments of the use of solid biomass, bioenergy(including solid biomass) and all renewables (including bioenergy) for heating and cooling for the 24
Members States in scope. Our main observations on this table are:


18 out of the 24 in-scope Member States presented trajectories for biomass-heat in their NECPs, while
21 MS provided projections for bioenergy as a whole.

Overall biomass use for heating and cooling is planned to increase by around 10% by 2030. Whilst
3 of the 18 countries that provided a trajectory for solid biomass are planning a decline in heatproduction, only Slovenia is planning a considerable decrease in biomass (-24.9%) by 2030, while
Germany and Portugal are expected to have a marginal decrease (-0.9% and -1% respectively). On theother hand, Ireland is expected to record the highest increase in heat from biomass, by 72.6%,
followed by Bulgaria (+36%), Poland (+30%) and Czechia (+27%).



Bioenergy use for heating and cooling is planned to increase by 11% by 2030. In terms of total
bioenergy consumption for heating and cooling, the largest increases are expected in Hungary whichis expected to increase its total by 111%, and Ireland where use is planned to increase by 93% by2030. A reduction in bioenergy is expected only from Slovenia and Denmark, by 15.2% and 4.6%
respectively.

Overall, the expected growth27 of renewable energy in heating in 2030 in all in-scope countries is
expected to be 26.5%, significantly faster than the respective growth planned for both biomass
and bioenergy. This shows that whilst biomass and bioenergy are intended to grow, other renewable
heat technologies are expected to grow much faster in every Member State over the coming decade(except Slovenia where renewable heat and biomass both decline).



Nevertheless, biomass, and bioenergy more broadly are planned to continue to contribute morearound 70% or more of all renewable heat in 2030. A growing share of the renewable heat total isplanned to be contributed from other renewable heat sources such as heat pumps and solar thermal
systems by 2030, but the total for both solid biomass and bioenergy is still estimated to contributearound 70% of the total RES-heat consumption for countries for which data is available.



There are some inconsistencies between the aggregated NECP data and the historic statistics shown in
the previous section, in that the NECPs starting point in 2020 is around 20% lower than the equivalentfor 2019 in the SHARES data presented in the previous section. This highlights an important statisticalissue present in data on biomass use for heating and cooling, with data being less reliable than data
for electricity. Nevertheless, the NECP data on bioenergy matches quite closely to SHARES so it islikely there are (lack of) classification issues for biomass and the broader category of bioenergy.
The NECPs provide further information regarding the development of specific heating systems, such as
district heating (DH) and combined heat and power (CHP). With regards to DH, the aim of all
countries is to increase the share of renewables by 2030. Whilst it was not possible to analyse the roleof DH in the NECPs of all countries, examples of the approach from a handful of Member States include:
Denmark (an 80% renewable share in DH, mainly through the use of biomass and heat pumps), France(5-fold increase of renewable share in 2030 compared to 2012 values) and Lithuania (90% of the DHfrom renewables by 2030). Furthermore, several countries, such as France and Slovakia, will set inaction additional regulatory and economic measures in order to optimize and develop DH systems.

27

Calculated by summing the projections

27

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

CHP technologies also contribute significantly to the achievement of the 2030 targets of the Member
States, with several of them mentioning their intention to further develop high efficiency CHP systems
both for electricity and heating purposes, and to implement additional measures to promote CHP use.
For instance, Austria uses high-efficiency CHP plants based on solid biomass to meet the 100%
renewable target, while in Finland, 70% of the DH production is based on CHP, which also accounts for
one third of Finland’s electricity production. However, it is projected that electricity generation fromDH CHP plants will probably decrease. Ireland, by implementing additional measures, expects toincrease its biomass CHP electricity generation for the period 2021-2023 up to 60 ktoe, although adecline back to 33 ktoe is planned for the period 2030-2040.

28

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 3-2 Summary of biomass, bioenergy and renewable energy trajectories for heat in NECPs to 2030
NECP provides
trajectory forsolid biomass?

NECP Provides
trajectory forbioenergy?

AT

No

Yes

BE

Yes

Yes

16 20219 367

BG

Yes

Yes

12 89817 538

CZ

Yes

Yes

28 321

DE

Yes

Yes

118 056

DK*

No

Yes

EE

Yes

Yes

9 000

9 600

EL

Yes

Yes

12 037

Country

Bioenergy (including biomass) heatproduction [GWh]

Biomass heat production [GWh]
2020

2030

Change [%]

2020

2030

Renewable heat (including bioenergy)
production [GWh]

Change2020

2030

Change [%]52 50056 111

6.9%

19.5%

16 20219 36719.5%

16 49020 249

22.8%

36.0%

12 89817 53836.0%

14 70017 53819.3%

35 87726.7%

31 17841 476

33.0%

64 57387 19835.0%

116 944-0.9%

170 833

179 7225.2%

174 450232 600

33.3%

3 281

3 129

-4.6%

48 43952 358

8.1%

6.7%

9 000

9 600

6.7%

9 950

11 000

10.6%

13 281

10.3%

12 03713 281

10.3%

20 48028 610

39.7%

ES

No

No

60 765

102 728

69.1%

FI

Yes

Yes

87 00097 00011.5%

87 00097 00011.5%

93 000104 000

11.8%

FR*

Yes

Yes

145 000

157 000

8.3%

145 000

157 000

8.3%

196 000

219 000

11.7%

HR

Yes

Yes

12 87913 743

6.7%

12 87913 743

6.7%

13 74315 619

13.6%

HU

No

Yes

3 105

6 559

111.2%

3 536

10 165

187.5%

IE*

Yes

Yes

IT*

No

Yes

LT

Yes

Yes

14 73815 619

LV

Yes

Yes

3 500

2 816

4 860

72.6%

2 928

5 645

92.8%

3 598

12 299241.8%

84 49286 411

2.3%

119 266

163 262

36.9%

6.0%

15 08616 084

6.6%

15 15417 515

15.6%

4 300

22.9%

3 500

4 300

22.9%

3 550

4 400

23.9%
46.5%

NL

No

No

PL

Yes

Yes

65 09384 75930.2%

66 66388 725

33.1%

71 676

104 996

PT

Yes

Yes

11 200

11 083-1.0%

11 20011 665

4.2%

20 99221 725

3.5%

RO

Yes

Yes

40 48646 82815.7%

40 48646 82815.7%

41 37351 286

24.0%

SE

Yes

Yes

106 000

106 000

0.0%

114 000

120 000

5.3%

130 000

145 000

11.5%

SI

Yes

Yes

5 989

4 501

-24.9%

6 606

5 599

-15.2%

7 653

7 129

-6.8%

SK

Yes

Yes

6 978

7 560

8.3%

7 734

8 723

12.8%

8 199

10 758

31.2%

Total

18

21

698 192

765 8629.7%

908 609

1 008 508

11.0%

1 137 586

1 439 433

26.5%

Note: Italic text represents biomass or bioenergy values with no other sources noted, therefore the assumption has been made that totals are the same for both biomass and bioenergy.
*Note: The countries indicated with a star have different starting and ending dates: Denmark: starting date 2021, France: starting date 2021/ending date 2028, Ireland: starting date
2018, Italy: starting date 201729

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

3.1.3 Biomass availability and uses
Biomass availability and feedstock origins
The review of the NECPs provided some interesting findings regarding the level of detail that eachcountry provides on biomass supply and feedstock origin.
Almost all the Member States provide an indication of their biomass supply up to 2030, often
disaggregated per energy use, i.e. district heating, decentralised, etc.
A small majority (14 of 24) of the Member States also refer to their domestic potential for biomass
production and, when applicable, about the expected imports from third countries. Of those countries
that did report on this issue, most claim to be independent in terms of biomass production since theirresources are sufficient to fulfil their energy needs. Several Member States indicate they produce solid
biomass domestically in volumes large enough to meet most (Finland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania,
Slovenia), or a large part (Denmark), of their current and future demand. Whilst the Czech Republicand Estonia have large biomass sectors which export biomass to other Member States. Contrarily,
Sweden, Belgium, Hungary and Bulgaria plan to meet their future demand for biomass through imports,
either because of low domestic biomass production or potential (e.g. Belgium), or because of increasing
biomass needs that cannot be satisfied from the domestic production (e.g. Bulgaria, also Denmark for
future growth). However, Sweden does not fall under any of those two categories since it has
significant potential of biomass feedstocks, but still imports significant quantities of biomass for energy
purposes due to the relatively low costs compared to domestic production28. The Swedish NECP suggests
this will continue.
However, for the reporting of the feedstock origins, only 10 countries detailed their sources forbiomass, while 13 countries failed to mention it at all.
Forest biomass and impact on the LULUCF sink
Similar conclusions can be drawn for the reporting of the forest biomass and the impact on LULUCF
sink. Only 5 countries (CZ, FI, HU, SI, SK) discussed both aspects in their NECPS, while 8 countries
partially complied, usually reporting the forest biomass potential but not the feedstocks and the
LULUCF impact. 11 countries did not make any reference at all on that subject.
Overall, the Member States that fully complied with the specifications of Governance Regulation
regarding the biomass availability, forest biomass and its impact on LULUCF were Finland and Hungary.
They are both countries that relied significantly on biomass, and specifically on forest biomass, forelectricity and heating purposes and this trend will continue to occur, as the projections suggest.
However, their NECPs indicate in both cases that the impact on the LULUCF sector will remain small.

Policies and measures
The current and planned policies of the 24 in-scope EU Member States have been investigated throughthe provided NECP reports of each country. The focus was mainly on the policies aiming at thepromotion or growth in the use of solid biomass for energy, yet policies targeting other bioenergy
sources (e.g., biofuels) were in many cases also recorded. The review of current and planned policy
28

Svebio (2014). IEA Bioenergy, Task 40- Country report Sweden

30

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

measures was conducted mainly on the basis of section 3.1.2. of the NECPs, specifically “Renewable
Energy”, under the dimension of decarbonisation.
It is worth mentioning that not all countries described in their NECPs the existing and planned
additional policies to the same extent, and in some cases there were no specific references to biomass
policies. In those cases, policies aimed at a range of renewable energy sources were recorded, thesewere expected, based on the available information, to also cover biomass as well (i.e. Germany,
Croatia for current policies and Latvia and Czech Republic for planned policies).
An overview of the number of current and planned policies aiming to boost the use of biomass isprovided in Table 3-3. This shows policies classified into 5 main categories, namely energy, air quality,
forest management29, transportation/biofuels and other (innovation, awareness/information, circular
economy, waste management) depending on the specific aim of the policy. The table also includes thenumber of policies that can be identified as subsidies or financial supports.
The majority of the policies, both current and planned, target the energy sector (sustainableproduction, efficiency, security of supply), followed by the transportation/biofuels sector. It isnotable that there are almost no policies to address air quality issues related to biomass use.
Sweden listed the most current policies among the EU Member States, with 5 out of 7 policies targetingtransportation and biofuels. Czech Republic and Spain were next, listing 5 policies each, focusing
mostly on energy and forest management. Regarding the planned policies, the Czech Republic comes
first with 7 planned policies in total following by Greece with 6 and Austria and Portugal with 5, again
with the majority of them focusing on energy.
By taking a closer look into specific policies, most of them revolve around 4 main pillars:
1.

Setting up sustainability criteria for biomass used for energy purposes;

2.

Funding the expansion of biomass as renewable energy source;3.

Increasing the efficiency of biomass power or heat plants and;4.

Increasing the share of sustainable biofuels in the total fuel mix for transportation.

Very few countries mention in their NECPs the size of any financial contributions or funding. In
terms of current policies, only Austria, Denmark and Sweden refer to the subsidies that were provided
through the current schemes, which compared to the subsidies mentioned in section 1.2, only accountfor a small share. For instance, in Austria’s NECP it is mentioned that €41.5 million was spent under theEnvironmental Support Act [Umweltförderungsgesetz – UFG] for the period 2014-2018 to fund biomass
heating. This expenditure represents only 4% of the total biomass subsidies that Austria provided in therespective period, as found in other work.
Regarding the planned measures, Austria, Denmark, Ireland and Poland are the only countries thatbriefly mention some of the projected subsidies, which account for 5 out of the 17 planned policies inwhich provide either financial support or subsidies.
Finally, it is noteworthy that Poland does not provide any information regarding current policies
regarding biomass or renewable energy in general, while in Sweden’s NECP it is mentioned that so far,
29

The considered policies related to the forest management aim at increasing biomass mobilisation for renewableenergy production.

31

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

no additional measures have been decided to be implemented in the future to enhance biomass andrenewable production given the well established cultural and market position of biomass in the country.
It is important to note that the simple count and classification of policies as presented in the table does
not provide a full basis for drawing deep insights on the potential impacts of policies. The lack oftechnology specificity in chapter 5 of the NECP (see also section 3.3 below), also prevents a clear
understanding of their potential impact. Nevertheless, the review provides an overview of the volumeof effort planned by MS, if not its expected effectiveness. Deeper assessment of the effectiveness was
not possible in many cases as only very limited information on individual policies is provided in the
NECPs.
Considering the current and planned policies along with the trajectories for biomass presented in
section 3.1 it is evident that whilst a growth in biomass is planned, it a significant deviation from thecurrent trajectories is not planned, and therefore whilst the number of planned policies is expected to
double the number of policies, it is not expected to result in dramatic increases in biomass use in most
Member States.
Other policy areas can also be relevant for biomass. The dimension “Energy efficiency” was also
screened for potential measures, as this was a strong candidate for policies tangential to increased
biomass use. A brief review of the energy efficiency policies in a handful of the NECPs showed that
there are no relevant measures aiming at biomass sector. No measures from this dimension were taken
into account in Table 3-3.
Furthermore, an investigation of the policies targeting the LULUCF sector showed that most countries
will either apply no additional measures or very few (between 1 and 3 policies). The only exceptions
are Lithuania with 16 planned policies, Sweden with 6 and the Flemish region of Belgium with 9.
However, those policies were not taken into account in the summary table, since they did not target
the promotion of biomass and typically focused on agricultural improvements, e.g. reduced fertiliseruse, no tillage techniques.

32Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 3-3 Summary of the number of current and planned Renewable Energy policies aiming at boosting the use of biomass purposes per target for 24 EU Member States
Targets
Countries

Energy (sustainableproduction,
efficiency, securityof supply)
Current

PlannedAir quality

Current

PlannedForest management

Other (innovation,awareness/informati
on, circular
economy, waste
management)

Current

Current

PlannedPlannedTransportation /biofuels

Current

Total of which arefinancial measuresor subsidies

Total

PlannedCurrent

PlannedCurrent

Planned

Austria

2

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

5

1

1

Belgium

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

0

0

Bulgaria

0

3

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

0

2

4

0

0

Croatia

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

Czech Republic

5

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

7

1

2

Denmark

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

1

1

1

Estonia

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

5

1

1

Finland

1

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

3

2

0

1

France

4

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

2

1

1

Germany

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

3

0

1

Greece

0

2

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

2

2

5

0

1

Hungary

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

1

1

Ireland

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

1

0

1

Italy

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

3

2

3

0

0

Latvia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

0

Lithuania

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

2

1

Netherlands

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

3

0

1

Poland

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

1

Portugal

1

3

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

5

0

3

Romania

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

Slovakia

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

Slovenia

2

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

3

1

2

2

Spain

2

0

0

0

2

1

0

0

1

0

5

1

1

0

Sweden

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

5

0

7

0

3

0

Total

32

42

0

1

5

3

2

3

13

13

52

62

14

19

Note: the measures indicated in the table account for those described only under the section 3.1.2. “Renewable Energy” of the NECPs. They do not reflect the totality of the current andplanned measures that each country considers.

33Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Impacts of planned policies and measures
The additional policies and measures that most of the EU Member States are planning to implement are
expected to have immediate impacts on the development of the energy system, i.e. enhancement of
the renewable share in the energy mix, as well as on the GHG emissions. It is worth to mention that the
NECPs typically consider impacts in their entirety, and do not provide significant breakdowns byfuel/technology or by individual policy measures. The impacts from the NECPs we discuss below are
based on projections taking into account the totality of the policies under all the dimensions consideredby the NECPs (i.e. decarbonisation, energy efficiency, energy security, internal energy market andresearch, innovation and competitiveness).
The effects of the planned policies on GHG emissions are expected to be positive overall, this is
unsurprising given the purpose of the NECPs. Most of the Member States projecting that total GHG
emissions will fall significantly during the next decades. It should be noted that while accounted
emissions and removals in the LULUCF sector should be taken into consideration, smokestack emissions
from biomass burning are not – as they are accounted as zero under the EU ETS to avoid double
counting. Possible negative effects on total GHG emissions may occur in case emissions at the point of
harvest are not fully accounted under LULUCF.
Totals and shares of renewable energy are expected to increase on average through theimplementation of the planned additional measures, but the share provided by biomass is planned
to decrease. For both power and heating and cooling biomass the planned trajectories suggest that
there will be a relatively small growth in total EU energy from biomass in the coming decade. Other
renewable technologies will grow more quickly. Nevertheless in the heating and cooling sector,
biomass, and especially solid wood-based biomass, is still planned to provide the majority of renewableenergy produced. In some countries such as Poland, Finland, Czech Republic and Bulgaria will continue
to depend on solid biomass and an increase is expected for heating consumption. One exception is
Slovenia, which plans to reduce heating from biomass. The planned growth in use of biomass, althoughsmall, could have significant impacts on increasing the need for biomass inputs, as noted earlier insection 3.1, assessment of these needs is mixed, and there is no assessment of the associated impacts
in the NECPs.
The NECPs expect air quality to improve after the implementation of the planned policies. The
NECPs of the in-scope countries expect that air pollution will decrease, with this being driven by the
decline of fossil fuels in the energy mix, especially of coal and oil, and their replacement by renewablesources. The contribution of the energy sector to air pollution is expected to diminish overall, however
there is no indication in what extent each energy source will contribute to the remaining emissions. As
a consequence, no clear conclusions can be drawn from the NECPs on whether and how much the
projected use of biomass will affect air pollution. Nevertheless, several studies30,31 suggest that
increasing biomass consumption can lead to substantial environmental and health impacts through poor
combustion and emissions controls, releasing particulates and other pollutants into homes or the local

30

Solarin, S. A., Al-Mulali, U., Gan, G. G. G., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). The impact of biomass energy consumption on
pollution: evidence from 80 developed and developing countries. Environmental Science and Pollution
Research, 25(23), 22641-22657.
31
NRDC (2016) Health Groups to Congress: Burning Biomass is Bad for Health34

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

environment. More specifically, a 2019 study32 suggests that the increased consumption of biomass
since 2005 resulted to a respective increase in air pollution (PM2.5, PM10 and VOCs).
Finally, it is important to note that the NECPs have been prepared mostly prior to discussions
related to the European Green Deal and the significant increase in EU climate ambition that wasagreed by EU leaders in December 2020, with climate ambitions increasing from a 40% reduction in GHG
emissions to a 55% reduction by 2030. This increased ambition will have major impacts on the plans for
MS in reducing emissions and promoting renewable energy. It is unclear what implications this may havefor biomass use for energy purposes, but it is likely to add to pressure for its expansion, alongside
growth in all other renewable energies. More will become apparent in 2021 as reviews of key EU
implementing legislation are completed, and then in 2023 as MS provide a first draft update of their
NECPs.
Other points of interest include: France is the only country that considers in its NECP the application of
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies to further reduce its GHG emissions and to achieve
negative emissions for biomass energy generation installations (BECCS).

32

Capizzi, Das, et al. (2019). Renewable energy in Europe – 2019, recent growth and knock-on effects. (European
Topic Centre on Climate Change Mitigation and Energy, 2019/8)

35

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

4 Conclusions
Taking the key findings from this report we can make the following conclusions on the treatment ofbiomass in Member State NECPs.
NECP reporting requirements: in terms of meeting the for biomass we conclude that:

Most Member States provide some information on the planned trajectories of the production ofelectricity and heat from bioenergy, although only around half specify to (solid) biomass, withmany also encompassing bioenergy more broadly. Only the Netherlands was totally deficient indetailing quantified biomass or bioenergy trajectories. Better distinction between solid
biomass and other bioenergies in the NECPs would improve transparency and their usefulness.



In contrast, there are significant deficiencies in the information MS provide on biomass supply
and feedstocks and, especially, on the sourcing of forest biomass and its LULUCF impact,
where fewer than half of the NECPs provided sufficient information. This should be an
improvement point in future planning and reporting.

In terms of planned measures for biomass, consideration and information on whether biomass
availability and its uses and sustainability measures were taken into account was assessed tobe generally poorly addressed. Whilst 18 of 24 MS had planned measures for biomass, only 8 or
9 clearly took into account biomass availability and sustainability. This appears to be asignificant gap in policy development.



The impact of planned measures was modelled in the NECPs – but it is usually not possible toseparate out the impacts of specific technologies or policies to assess the specific impact frombiomass or biomass-related measures. Separating these dimensions would be particularly
useful to identify potential positive or negative impacts of biomass, e.g. potential negative
impacts on air quality.

Biomass trajectories
Electricity from solid biomass has grown rapidly since 2000, but its growth has slowed
significantly in more recent years, falling significantly behind the growth rates of wind andsolar.



Electricity from solid biomass is planned to increase over the coming decade, although at amuch slower pace than overall renewables growth as a whole. It is also the case that there is
only partial data on biomass development, with many MS failing to split biomass from otherbioenergies. The planned trajectory for bioenergy as a whole is flat, but there is a mixed
picture across Member States, some planning rapid growth (ES, LT, SI, EL, HR), but others
foreseeing a decline (BE, CZ, DE, DK, IT, LV, PT).



Heat from solid biomass is by far the largest single renewable energy heat source, providing
over 75% of the total renewable heat, and a far larger contribution in GWh than for electricity.
Growth from other renewable sources such as heat pumps and solar thermal is faster thanbiomass, but from a low level, therefore the biomass share is still planned to be around 70% of
all renewable heat by 2030.



Heat from solid biomass is planned to increase by around 10% by 2030 based on the NECPs (18of 24) that disaggregate the trajectories. Compared to electricity the plans are more tilted
towards growth in heat production from biomass or bioenergy. Major increases are expected in
Ireland, Bulgaria, Poland and Czechia, but a decline is planned in Slovenia (in contrast to a36

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

major increase of biomass for power), and small reductions also planned in Denmark andPortugal.
Biomass availability and feedstock origin
Almost all MS provide an overall picture of their biomass supply, but only 14 of 24 MS describedbiomass availability in the context of domestic supply and imports. Furthermore, only 10 MS
provide information on the source of their biomass feedstocks.



The impact of forest biomass on LULUCF is reported by only a few Member States and is asignificant deficiency compared to the NECP requirements.

Policies and measuresAround 50 current and 60 planned policies for biomass were identified in the NECPs, with themain focus of the measures being to increase energy production from biomass, accounting for
more than 60% of all measures.

Despite a large number of new policies being identified the planned trajectories for biomass
growth in the NECPs do not suggest a major shift in biomass growth rates compared to the last
5 years – i.e. that overall there does not appear to be a strong policy push to grow electricity
and heat production from biomass. Policies do show a focus, amongst other goals, on
improving biomass sustainability criteria.

The planned measures in the NECPs typically do not quantify the level of subsidy or financial
support they provide, if any. This is common to all technologies, not just biomass.

Impacts of planned policies


The NECPs typically do not disaggregate impacts of specific policies or technologies therefore
it is not possible to separate out biomass specific impacts.

Electricity and heat produced from biomass is expected to increase overall but decline inproportion to other renewable energy sources by 2030.



It is expected that the largest part of fuel demand will be possible to source domestically but
imports will still grow.

The NECPs do not yet reflect the increase in climate ambition agreed by EU leaders in
December 2020. This is likely to have an important influence on both MS plans for renewables,
and also EU renewables targets. The large increase in climate ambition is likely to increase thedemand for all renewable energy. Therefore the relatively slow growth trajectory for biomass
currently depicted in the NECPs may change. Indeed the NECPs are intended to evolve over
time.

37

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Annex A – Country factsheets
24 country factsheets have been developed which provide more detailed information per country.

1 Country: Austria
Biomass deployment trajectory
1.1.1 Demand for biomass
Austria’s main source of renewable energy for electricity generation was hydropower during the period
2000-2018 as illustrated in Figure 1-1. Bioenergy played a marginal role holding a share of on average
7% of the total renewable energy mix. In 2018, its production peaked, generating around 5000 GWh.
Figure 1-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Austria (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Regarding heat generation (Figure 1-2), primary solid biomass was the main renewable source, whileother bioenergy sources (charcoal, bioliquids, biofuels) and biogas played a rather marginal role in the
renewable energy mix. An overall increasing trend was recorded in all renewables in the whole period,
with the exception of some specific years when the consumption of renewable sources decreased.

38

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 1-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Austria (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
As depicted in Figure 1-3, even though the overall electricity supply will increase the next 20 years,
the share of biomass will remain stable, increasing from 5 TWh in 2020 to 6 TWh in 2030 and 2040. No
particular information is provided in the NECP regarding the projection of the heating consumption.
Figure 1-3 Projections of electricity supply in Austria under the WAM scenario

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
1.1.2 Supply of biomass
One of the Austria’s main renewable energy sources is biomass, holding 55.1% share of the domestic
renewable energy production in 2017. In the 2016-17 period, 16.3 PJ of energy were produced frompellets, while in 2017 10.2 mtCO2eq were saved. Further, 1.606 billion euros were generated from thebiofuel industry, which led to 18,967 jobs in the sector only in 2017. Also, almost a third of the energy
produced from renewable energy sources (560.4 GWh per year) is attributed to local biomass heating.
Regarding forest biomass, Austria has great reserves which came from the multifunctional forest
management and contribute significantly to Austria’s renewable energy mix. However, no further
information is provided regarding the source of forest biomass and the LULUCF impact.

39

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass policies and measures
1.2.1 Current policies
Austria has already set in place several policies in order to meet the Austrian Climate and Energy
Strategy goals (#mission2030). In terms of bioenergy, it includes the project “Renewable hydrogen andbiomethane”, yet it only started in 2020.
Another measure related to the five dimensions of the Energy Union is the “Federal Act on support formeasures in the areas of water management, the environment, contaminated land remediation,
protection of the environment abroad and in relation to the Austrian JI/CDM programme on
climate protection (Environmental Support Act [Umweltförderungsgesetz – UFG]) – BGBl. No
185/1993”, which obliges the provinces to provide co-funding for local biomass heating, biomass CHP,
boiler replacement, heat distribution and optimisation of local heating installations, and for somedemonstration installations, which for the period 2014-2018 was 41.5 million euros.
1.2.2 Planned policies
Austria will take additional measures to reach the goals of Energy Union in several areas of action.
Regarding bioenergy, those are:Land use, land use change and forestryPreserving the carbon pool in forest floors and in biomass through sustainable forest

management and, where appropriate, continuously increasing forest growth with a view toimproving carbon sequestration in forest stands.


Creating appropriate conditions for an increase in domestic wood use for material purposes(e.g., building regulations) and for wood to be an optimal substitute for non-sustainable raw
materials.


Creation of appropriate conditions for an increase in the use of domestic wood biomass forenergy production (e.g., green electricity follow-up tariffs), taking into account the air pollution
control requirements.


Focusing the future forest support programme (as part of the ’Rural Development 2021-2027’

programme) on measures supporting mobilisation of sustainable reserves of wood for use — within
the framework of the reference level for forest management according to the LULUCF Regulation
Continuing the ‘energy wood’ [energieholz] programme and similar programmes as part of

the Federal Ministry for Sustainability and Tourism’s klimaaktiv climate protection initiative.

Renewable Energy Expansion Act
Biomass plants expiring in 2020 or later will be provided with a succession plan following theprinciples of the new support system. This will guarantee continued support for high-efficiency
biomass plants when green electricity procurement and purchase contracts with such plants
have expired.



New (biogas and biomass) installations dependent on raw materials: separate technologyspecific tender for awarding market premiums to solid biomass installations will be held.



Biomass Funding Enabling Act [Biomasseförderungs-Grundsatzgesetz]: a tariff regulation
based on the principles of the Green Electricity Act 2012 which will support the electricity
production from solid biomass. The maximum subsidy period is 36 months.

40

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs



Green Electricity Act Amendment 2019 (ÖSG Amendment): Follow-up tariffs for biomass andbiogas plants, with an estimated total of EUR 60.9 million for biomass (special quota for thefollow-up tariffs of EUR 8.7 million) and for biogas a total volume of EUR 73.52 million. Also,change in the calculation of the quota, allowing 14 new plants to be built in 2019 (instead of11) and 21 in 2020.

Additional incentives for renewable energy expansion


Biofuels in the transport sector: promoting the use of biofuels by increasing the share ofbioethanol in petrol and by using synthetic diesel fuels from renewable sources with aproportion in the form of advanced biofuels.

Domestic Environmental Support: in terms of biomass, to improve the technical quality andefficiency of the plants quality control during the planning, construction and operation will be
conducted.

Security of energy supply

Maintain efficient existing installations.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
1.3.1 Historic impacts
Impacts with existing measures (WEM)
In Table 1-1, Table 1-2 and Table 1-3 the historical and future impacts of the existing policies arepresented. The greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced in the next decades, although no significant
reduction will be recorded between 2030 and 2040. The final energy consumption will be increased by
48 PJ in 2040 compared to 2020, while the share of renewables will be also increased the respective
period by 2.8%. Further, the share of biomass will not see significant changes, since it will increase
from 5 to 6 TWh between 2020 and 2040.
Table 1-1 Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding emission trading for the WEM scenario

Total (excluding
LULUCF) MtCO2eq

2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

92.6

84.8

78.9

79.7

74.0

71.0

Source: NECP
Table 1-2 Projections of the final energy consumption and share of renewable energy for the WEM scenario
2016

2020

2030

2040

Final energy consumption (PJ)

1,121

1,155

1,180

1,203

Gross inland consumption (PJ)

1,435

1,464

1,474

1,498

Renewable share

33.5%

34.3%

35.8%

37.1%

Source: NECP

41

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 1-3 Electricity supply projections for the WEM scenario
Supply (TWh)

2015

2020

2030

2040

Fossil fuels

15

14

11

9

Hydroelectric power

37

42

42

44

Biomass

4

5

5

6

Photovoltaics

1

2

3

5

Wind energy

5

8

9

16

Total

62

70

71

81

Source: NECP

1.3.2 Estimated future impacts
Impacts with additional measures (WAM)
By implementing the additional measures (WAM scenario), Austria is expecting to increase its renewableenergy share, while decreasing energy consumption. More specifically, in 2040 22 PJ will be saved
compared to 2020, while in 2040 49% of the total energy mix is expected to be renewables (therespective number under the WEM scenario is 37.1%). Nevertheless, no difference between the biomass
contribution is recorded between the WEM and WAM scenarios. In terms of GHG emissions, theadditional measures will contribute to a 27% emissions reduction in 2030 compared to the values of2005.
Table 1-4 Projections of the final energy consumption and share of renewable energy for the WAM scenario
2016

2020

2030

2040

Final energy consumption (PJ)

1,122

1,155

1,134

1,133

Gross inland consumption (PJ)

1,435

1,463

1,426

1,421

Renewable share

34%

35%

46%

49%

Source: NECP
Table 1-5 Electricity supply projections for the WAM scenario
Supply (TWh)

2015

2020

2030

2040

Fossil fuels

15

14

11

9

Hydroelectric power

37

42

44

45

Biomass

4

5

6

6

Photovoltaics

1

2

12

13

Wind energy

5

8

17

20

Total

62

71

89

92

Source: NECP

42

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

2 Country: Belgium
Biomass deployment trajectory
2.1.1 Demand for biomass
Belgium increased considerably the share of renewables for electricity generation, as depicted in Figure
2-1, reaching 20,000 GWh in total in 2018. Solid biomass and other bioenergy (biodiesels, liquidbiofuels, biogases and renewable waste) also increased significantly after 2006, reaching 3,484 GWh
and 1,987 GWh respectively. Heating generation on the other hand was mainly based on solid biomass
and biogas peaking in 2015 (Figure 2-2). After 2016, a downward trend was recorded in all renewablesources.
Figure 2-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Belgium (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 2-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Belgium (2004-2018) (GWh)43

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projections provided from the NECP show a decrease in biomass production for electricity, while
for heating is expected to increase slightly up to 2030.
Figure 2-3 Projection of renewable mix for electricity in Belgium

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
Figure 2-4 Projection of renewable mix for heat and cooling in Belgium

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

2.1.2 Supply of biomass
Belgium has limited domestic energy sources, therefore the country mainly relies on imports to satisfy
its energy needs, which also includes renewable energy sources such as biomass. The forest biomass isused as firewood, pellets, black liquor, roadside wood, grade b wood waste and woodchips. The
primary energy for 2030 from forest resources is expected to be 7,806 GWh. Also, Belgium is expected
to use 7.625 GWh of biogas from landfills, waste, residues, manure and crops.

44Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass policies and measuresi.

Current policies

Use stimuli to green transport and mobility

Encourage the renovation of buildings and improve their energy efficiency

Strengthen regional cooperation on projects (North Seas Energy Cooperation) to contribute to
renewable energyIntroduce sustainability criteria for biomass as part of implementing the Heat Plan, which wasapproved by the Flemish Government

Shift towards medium sized combustion plants that use local biomass thereby efficiently
heating local buildingsFinancing the transition throughGreen linear bonds: It was launched by the Federal Government and totals to a EUR 6.89
billion.



National Pact for Strategic InvestmentsEnergy Transition Funds: aims to finance energy projects to guarantee the security supplyof energy productionThe ‘Action Plan for the sustainable management of biomass streams 2015-2020’has been
approved by the Flemish Government in 2015, which aims to further encourage the recycling of
biomass waste to save costs, energy and raw materials.

45

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

2.2.1 Planned policies


The Max Green power station will be decommissioned between 2020 and 2030 and most plants
running on biomass waste will transform to green heat;

The replacement of poor-performing individual biomass heating systems will be encouraged toachieve Wallonia’s renewable targets



Air Policy Plan 2030 approved by the Flemish Government: aims to combat air pollution in
Flanders

Impacts of planned policies and measures
2.3.1 Historic impacts
The development of the historical emissions shows a downward trend from 145.3 MtCO2eq in 2005 to
117.1 MtCO2eq in 2015 (excluding LULUCF), which can be mainly attributed to the reduction in EU ETSemissions in 2015 compared with 2005.
Table 2-1 Historical GHG emissions in Belgium
MtCO2eq

2005

2010

2015

Total excluding LULUCF

145.3

132.9

117.1

Total including LULUCF

142.3

131.4

115.9

Source: NECP
2.3.2 Estimated future impacts
Considering the implementation of the additional measures, it is expected that the GHG emissions willreach 127.5 MtCO2eq, which is higher than the respective figure in 2015. This is due to the increase of
EU ETS emissions which are expected to rise mainly as a consequence of the higher emissions fromelectricity generation. By looking at the emissions per type (Table 2-3), we see that all categories are
expected to decrease by 2030.
Table 2-2 Projections of GHG emissions in Belgium up to 2030
MtCO2eq

2020

2025

2030

Total excluding LULUCF

113.3

119.6

127.5

Total including LULUCF

112.6

118.7

126.3

Source: NECP
Table 2-3 Historical and projected GHG emissions by type under the additional measures scenario
MtCO2eq

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

CO2

125.5

113.8

99.8

94.4

98.9

99.5

CH4

9.3

8.8

8.1

7.3

6.5

5.8

N20

8.4

7.6

6.0

5.6

5.2

5.0

F-gases

2.1

2.8

3.3

2.6

1.8

1.0

Source: NECP

46

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

3 Country: Bulgaria
Biomass deployment trajectory
3.1.1 Demand for biomass
The share of renewable energy sources for electricity in Bulgaria increased considerably from 2000 to2018 from 3,000 GWh to almost 10,000 GWh, with the main source being hydropower for the totality of
the years. Electricity generation from bioenergy has also increased the last decade, and especially forsolid biomass between 2017 and 2018 the production surged 7-fold. Also, biofuels contributed to theenergy mix after 2009 in an increasing rate.
Figure 3-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Bulgaria (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
In terms of heating production, Bulgaria was mainly depending on fossil fuels, leaving little room forrenewables. Solid biomass was the main renewable source according to Eurostat, recording acontinuously growing generation, peaking in 2018 at more than 13,000 GWh.

47

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 3-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Bulgaria (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The future projections about the contribution of renewables in the energy mix are positive. By 2030,
the share of renewables in the electricity production would be 30.33% while for heating and cooling
purposes the respective figure is 42.6%.
Table 3-1 Bulgaria: Projection of renewable sources shares in gross final electricity consumption and in grossfinal heat consumption
Share ofrenewables

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

21.40

21.99

22.56

23.13

23.69

24.24

25.48

26.70

27.92

29.13

30.33

31.07

32.48

33.89

35.30

36.71

38.11

38.99

39.88

40.78

41.68

42.60

(%)
Electricity
Heatingand cooling

Source: NECP
In more detail, the gross electricity consumption from renewables will climb from 8,673 GWh in 2020 to
13,035 GWh, with hydropower and solar PV having the leading role. Biomass will record a moderateincrease of 514 GWh within the next decade (Figure 3-3). On the other hand, in the heating and cooling
sector, biomass is expected to have the lion’s share in the renewable energy mix reaching up to 1508
GWh in 2030 (Figure 3-4).

48

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 3-3 Bulgaria: Projection of renewable energy generation-electricity (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 3-4 Bulgaria: Projection of renewable energy generation-heating and cooling (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
By looking into the final consumption of biomass by sector, we see that households will hold thegreatest share, increasing their consumption by 1 TWh from 2020 to 2030. The industry sector willrecord the biggest increase by almost 100%, while the consumption for services and transport sector
will remain relatively stable.

49Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 3-2 Final consumption of energy from biomass by sector
TWh

2020

2025

2030

Services

0.4

0.4

0.4

Industry

1.7

2.6

3.3

Transport

2.5

2.6

2.6

8.8

9.2

9.8

Households

Source: NECP
3.1.2 Supply of biomass
According to the NECP, the gross domestic consumption of biomass and waste is expected to increaseby 25% in 2030 compared to 2020 figures. The demand of biofuels will remain relatively stable, while
the consumption of new generation biofuels will surge the next decade up to 1, 100 GWh in 2030. To
meet the overall growing demand, the exports are expected to decrease while the imports will increasein the next decade. However, the land use for the cultivation of biofuels is expected to decrease, whichaligns with the decreasing trend of the conventional biofuels’ consumption.
Biomass is mainly used in Bulgaria as firewood, while the consumption of wood waste and plant waste is
growing.
The potential of forest biomass, under the assessment of National Action Plan for Energy from forest
Biomass reaches the 12,286 GWh (under an optimistic scenario). National Forest Inventory does not
anticipate large-scale afforestation developments in the future, therefore under the WAM scenario,
there is no projected increase in the forest areas for biomass production. It is noteworthy that themodel that calculates the required quantities of biomass under the WAM scenario, takes into accountalso other sources of biomass such as biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from
biological origin from agriculture, forestry and related industries, fisheries and aquaculture, andbiodegradable waste fraction, including industrial and municipal waste of biological origin. All thebiomass sources are considered to comply with the sustainability criteria established in Directive (EU)2018/2001.

Biomass policies and measures
3.2.1 Current policies
Bulgaria has a set of policies and measures for the promotion of the renewable sources that are alreadyin action. In a nutshell:Energy from Renewable Sources Act (ZEVI) (2009): the main legal instrument in the sector ofrenewable energy which applies to public relations. Several amendments have been applied tothe policy.

Energy Sector Act (ZE): after the amendments adopted in 2018 and 2019, there is not possible
to promote electricity from renewable sources by providing preferential prices.



Amendments of Directive 98/70/EC and Directive 2009/28/EC: new national target of 0.05
percentage points of energy content of the share of renewable energy in all forms of transport
using new generation biofuels. This target should be met by 2020.



Regulation No 6 of 7 October 2019 of the Minister of Agriculture, Food and Forests:
requirements for and the control of harvested wood used as firewood for residential heating.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

The NECP does not mention any measure directly targeting the biomass sector.
3.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies that Bulgaria will implement related to the promotion of biomass and biofuels are:

Development and adoption of a national analysis of the potential for the sustainable biomass
from all sectors (incl. but not limited to forests and agriculture) and relevant sustainability
criteria, taking into account the sustainability criteria set out in Directive (EU) 2018/2001.



Alignment between strategic documents relating to the management and use of forests. Whenreviewing, updating and developing strategic documents, ensure that the documents
concerned are consistent with each other and with the INECP. The strategic documents subject
to review, updating or alignment with the INECP may include: the Forestry Sector Report, theAnnex to the Action Plan to Bulgaria’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, theNational Strategy for Development of the Forestry Sector, the National Action Plan for Energy
from Forest Biomass, and the National Action Plan for Renewable Energy.



Directive (EU) 2018/2001, Article 28(2) to (7) and (10): increase the use of biomass forcentralised and local heat generation.

Streamlining the legal framework for application of the stricter requirements stipulated in
Directive (EU) 2018/2001 as regards sustainability criteria and GHG emission reductions whenusing biofuels and liquid, gaseous and solid fuels from biomass.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
3.3.1 Historic impacts
Impacts of existing measures (WEM)
In Table 3-3 the impacts of the existing measures are presented in terms of GHG emissions until 2040.
Overall, if Bulgaria continues to implement the existing policy measures, a reduction of 47.85% can beachieved in 2030 compared to the 1990 figures.
Table 3-3 Historic and projection of GHG emissions under the WEM scenario
Emissions

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

54,65653,46753,611

48,871

39,41030,147-8,489-8,641-8,594-8.542-8,476-8,403

63,145

62,10862,20657,41347,88638,55044,57443,986

43,13537,58927,95918,508GHG emissions(CO2 eq.), incl.
LULUCF
LULUCFGHG emissions(CO2 eq.), excl.
LULUCF
Total CO2
emissions from theEnergy sector (ktoe
CO2)

51

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Total CO2
emissions, excl.
the Energy sector

4,912

5,133

5,314

5,460

5,549

5,638

(ktoe CO2)

Source: NECP
Regarding the total electricity production, it is expected to increase from 43.9 TWh in 2020 to 47.7
TWh in 2030, yet the biggest share of the increase is attributed to the growth of electricity generationfrom renewables.
3.3.2 Estimated future impacts
In terms of GHG emissions, the implementation of the additional measures will result to a decreasing
trend in the energy sector, as presented in Table 3-4. Compared to the 1990 values, the decrease inemissions is expected to reach 49% in 2030.
Table 3-4 Projection of greenhouse gases emissions from the energy sector under the WAM scenario
Emissions
Total GHG emissions(ktoe CO2eq )

2015

2020

2025

2030

47,251.45

45,664.23

44,124.78

37,592.02

Source: NECP
The share of renewable sources is expected to increase both in electricity and heat, reaching 30.33%
and 42.60% respectively in 2030.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

4 Country: Croatia
Biomass deployment trajectory
4.1.1 Demand for biomass
The electricity generation from renewables in Croatia was fluctuating during the period 2000-2018,
showing some picks for the years 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2018 and some lows in the years 2007, 2011 and2012. The main renewable source was hydropower while wind production increased significantly after
2013. Bioenergy (both in terms of primary biomass and biofuels) played a marginal role in the energy
mix contributing only 7% in its best year (2017).
Figure 4-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Croatia (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Croatia was mainly relied on solid biomass for the heating purposes during the entire period 2004-2018.
Interestingly, all renewables sources underwent a big decrease during the years 2003 to 2009 followed
by a continuous increase up to 2010. Also, in 2014 a steep decrease was recorded, followed by arespective steep increase the next year.

53Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 4-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Croatia (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
According to the NECP, the electricity generation from renewable sources is expected to increasesteadily in the next decade from 776 ktoe in 2020 to 1112.8 ktoe in 2030. As depicted in Figure 4-3,
solid and gaseous biofuels are expected to play a marginal role in the energy mix, while hydropower
and wind power will dominate. Regarding heating generation (Figure 4-4) a moderate increase is
expected in the total renewable production, with biomass contributing the biggest share in the energy
mix.
Figure 4-3 Projection of the renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Croatia with existing measures(2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

54

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 4-4 Projection of the renewable energy mix for heating and cooling generation in Croatia with existingmeasures (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
The disaggregation per sector shows that most of the biomass will be used for thermal energy purposes,
following by transportation and electricity use.
Figure 4-5 Projection of biomass demand disaggregated by heat, electricity and transportation (2020-2030)

Source: NECP
4.1.2 Supply of biomass
NECP mentions that Croatia uses firewood for heating purposes, while it is reported that during theperiod 2012-2017 the imports of wood increased annually by 43.7%. No other information is given
regarding other forms of biomass or the use of forest biomass, since the results of the study
investigating those aspects are not included in the NECP yet.

Biomass policies and measures
4.2.1 Current policies
The current policies related to the promotion of renewable energy sources, and subsequently tobiomass are:55

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 4-1 Current policies in Croatia related to renewable energy sources
MeasureDocuments

Description

Feed-in tariffs and a system of

Act on RES and COE (OG Nos. 100/15,

The main mechanism for thepremiums to support the use of

123/16, 131/17, 111/18), National RES

development of renewable energy

renewable energy sources in

Action Plan until 2020 [13]sources has so far been stimulating

electricity generation and for highly

pricing (feed-in tariffs). It is

efficient cogeneration.

expected that this system ofstimulation will continue in theforthcoming period for 500 kW plants.
The Act on Renewable Energy Sourcesand Highly Efficient Cogeneration
introduced an incentive scheme
through premiums.

Increased use of renewable energy

Plan for Air Protection, Ozone Layer

Use of available funds from ESIF andsources and energy efficiency in theProtection and Climate Change

funds available at auctions of emission

industrial sector

Mitigation in the Republic of Croatia

allowances in the EU ETS for the use

for the period 2013-2017 (OG No.

of renewable energy sources and139/13)energy efficiency in the industrial
sector.

Promoting the use of renewable

Plan for Air Protection, Ozone Layer

The objective of the loan programmeenergy sources and energy efficiency

Protection and Climate Change

for environmental protection, energy

through the Croatian Bank for

Mitigation in the Republic of Croatia

efficiency and renewable energy

Reconstruction and Development

for the period 2013-2017 (OG No.

projects is the realization of(CBRD)

139/13)

investment projects aimed atenvironmental protection, improving
energy efficiency and promoting theuse of renewable energy sources.
Loans are intended for investment inland, buildings, equipment anddevices. The final loan beneficiaries
may be units of local and regional
self-government, utility companies,
companies, small businesses and otherlegal entities.

Promoting the use of renewable

Plan for Air Protection, Ozone Layer

Funds for financing are secured fromenergy sources and energy efficiency

Protection and Climate Change

the dedicated revenues of the Fundthrough the funds of the

Mitigation in the Republic of Croatia

paid by environmental polluters,

Environmental Protection and Energy

for the period 2013-2017 (OG No.

which include fees for carbon dioxide

Efficiency Fund

139/13)emissions, fees for burdening theenvironment with waste,environmental user fees and special
environmental fees for motor
vehicles. Renewable energy projects
for which the Environmental

56

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund
grants funds include solar energy,
wind energy, biomass, energy fromsmall hydropower plants andgeothermal energy.
Implementation at the local level

National RES Action Plan [13]Raising awareness of renewableenergy sources with expected resultsof behaviour changes The target
groups are local authorities, interest
groups, the public.

Source: NECP
4.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies of Croatia that target the bioenergy sector according to the NECP are:Table 4-2 Planned policies for the period 2020-2030 in Croatia targeted to the bioenergy sector
MeasureType of measure & implementation

Description

periodPOLJ-4: Anaerobic decomposition ofInformation, economic, regulatory

The objective of the measure is tomanure and biogas production

measure Implementation 2021-2030

reduce methane emissions from themanure management system for cattle
and pigs by increasing the share ofbiogas plants.

POLJ-15 Collection and treatment ofagricultural plantings and residues forenergy use

Information measure
Implementation 2021-2030

Biomass collection and logistic centres
will be established using the existing
infrastructure (utility companies,
competence centres, business zones)in order to reduce the unit cost of
production of biomass products, andcapitalize on innovation capacity andequipment necessary for innovative
biomass products for bioeconomics.

TR-13: Advanced biofuels market
development plan

Regulatory, promotional measure
Implementation: 2021-2030, updated
every 2 years

Increase of RES share in transport by
2030, through development of theadvanced fuels market andachievement of the planned share ofadvanced fuels in final energy
consumption in transport through theleast cost criteria and the largest
multiplier.

MS-11: Establishing of platform for

Informative, educational, regulatory

Set up a cross-sectoral thematic

circular economy

measure Implementation: 2021-2030

working group to identify the
stakeholders in the circular economy

57

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs(focus on industry and suppliers of raw
materials, energy-generating products
and packaging) and draw up a national
action plan for the transition to
circular economy.

Source: NECP

Impacts of planned policies and measures
4.3.1 Historic impacts
The historical trend of GHG emissions in Croatia follow a nearly gaussian distribution, with theemissions peaking in 2007, following by a decrease in the subsequent period (Figure 4-6). The
projection considering the implementation of the existing measures shows a steady decrease inemissions up to 2040.
Figure 4-6 Historical GHG emissions in Croatia (1990-2017)33

Source: NECP

33

The units are not provided in the NECP

58

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 4-7 Projection of GHG emissions in Croatia with existing national policies and measures (2010-2040)34

Source: NECP

4.3.2 Estimated future impacts
In Figure 4-8 the GHG emissions under the scenarios of existing and additional measures are presented.
Clearly the additional measures will enhance the emissions reduction in the next 20 years in the energy
sector. In terms of energy mix, the share of renewables source in gross final energy consumptions is
expected to reach 36.4% by 2030, and specifically in the electricity sector the respective share willreach 63.8%.
Figure 4-8 Projection of GHG emissions with existing and additional measures- energy sector

Source: NECP34

The units are not provided in the NECP

59

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

5 Country: Czech Republic
Biomass deployment trajectory
5.1.1 Demand for biomass
The share of renewables for electricity purposes increased significantly in Czech Republic the last
decade, with the main sources being hydroenergy solar PV, bioenergy and other renewables(geothermal, ocean and non-renewable waste). More specifically, solid biomass reached more than
2,000 GWh in 2018, while other bioenergy (biogases and renewable waste) peaked at 2,754 GWh in
2017. In terms of heat production, renewables sources significantly increased the last decade. Solidbiomass held the lion’s share in heating production peaking at 31,000 GWh in 2018, while the share ofbiogas also increased significantly after 2013.
(Figure 5-2).
Figure 5-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Czech Republic (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 5-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Czech Republic (2004-2018) (GWh)60

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The NECP projects a stable increase of renewables up to 2030 both for electricity and heating. Most of
the heating and cooling energy will continue to be produced from biomass, while for electricity the
distribution among the renewables will be more even, as depicted in Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-4.
Figure 5-3 Future projection of electricity consumption up to 2030 in Czech Republic

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
Figure 5-4 Future projection of heat consumption up to 2030 in Czech Republic

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
5.1.2 Supply of biomass
Currently, the Czech Republic is a net exporter of solid biomass. It is foreseen that biomass
consumption in the Czech Republic will most likely be covered by domestic sources until 2030,
therefore imports of biomass are unlikely. The assumption that biomass export will decline by 2030
depends on various factors, such as climate change, market factors.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Agricultural and forestry management plays a vital role in the production of biomass in the Czech
Republic, as agricultural land us used for the production of raw materials used in the energy sector,
while forestry produces approximately 5 million tonnes of firewood yearly, which is used up for energy
purposes. In 2018 alone, 25.69 million m3 were logged from the Czech forests, 6.3 million m3 more thanthe previous year. Most logs are composed from coniferous trees, while deciduous trees contribute only
6% in the total logging.
Therefore, agricultural and forest management contributes significantly to boost the country’s energy
self-sufficiency and to remain consistent to the national climate commitments. However, additional
area of land for the purpose of increasing biomass production is limited, as it is expected that the areaof agricultural land will decrease by 2030.
It is important to mention that as the elimination of bark beetle calamity will take place in the Czech
Republic in the coming years, the forests might not be able to absorb previous quantities of CO2, which
can also have a significant impact on the LULUCF sector.

Biomass policies and measures
5.2.1 Current policiesAction Plan for Biomass in the Czech Republic 2012–2020: this document defines themeasures and principles that are necessary to lead to effective utilisation of biomassenergy potential.

In the heating sector, the following main targets are established: promoting the transitionof medium and small heat supply systems, multi-fuel systems using locally available
biomass.



Operating support for heat is provided for biomass including biogas, biofuels andgeothermal energy.



Aid is provided for heat from renewable energy sources: to build new biogas, biomass andgeothermal power plants.

Promotion of the use of energy from biomass through the following measures: investment
support, operational programmes and State programmes, New Green Savings (Ministry of
the Environment), OP E 2014– 2020 (Ministry of Environment and Regions), exemption fromreal estate tax for selected groups of sources, indirect support by promoting cogenerationfrom renewable energy sources.

It is estimated that to fulfil the National Energy and Climate Plan of the Czech Republic, between CZK 1
to 5 billion is required. Total costs associated with the development of renewable energy sources
amount to almost CZK 900 billion.
5.2.2 Planned policies
The NECP suggests that Czech Republic will invest 11.18 million euros in biomass boilers and stoves,which will support to achieve the 22 % share of RES by 2030. No further information are provided
regarding planned policies aiming at biomass. Other measures considered for the promotion of energy
from biomass are:

Investment support – operational programmes and State programmes:o

New Green Savings (Ministry of the Environment)o

OP E 2014– 2020 (Ministry of Environment and Regions)62

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs



Operational programmesoOperational programme Enterprise and Innovation for Competitiveness (Ministry ofIndustry and Trade)oOperational Programme Environment (OP E) (Ministry of the Environment)

Exemption from real estate tax (in accordance with Act No 338/1992) for selected groupsof sources (geothermal energy sources including heat pumps, solar collectors and biomassenergy sources)oIndirect support by promoting cogeneration from renewable energy sourcesoDirect operating support of renewable heat in accordance with Act No 165/2012.

oHigher charges for landfilled municipal waste, prohibition of landfilling of recoverable
waste

Impacts of planned policies and measures
5.3.1 Historic impacts
See next section for the historical GHG emissions and energy mix.
5.3.2 Estimated future impacts
Figure 5-5 shows the projection of the energy mix at the primary energy level up to 2040. Even thoughrenewables seem to increase in share compared to the previous years, the future projections suggest arather stable share for the next 20 years.
The projection of the future GHG emissions (Figure 5-6) suggest a constant decline up to 2040 from 140
MtCO2eq in 2005 to approximately 90 MtCO2eq in 2040. However, no particular difference is observedwith the implementation of the additional measures (blue line). Regarding the air pollutants, (Table
5-1), the implementation of the additional measures will contribute considerably to their reduction.

Figure 5-5 Projection of the energy mix at the primary energy source level

Source: NECP

63

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 5-6 Historical and projected GHG emissions considering the existing measures (WEM) and the additional
measures (WAM) up to 2040, including LULUCF

Source: NECP
Table 5-1 Projection of air pollutants up to 2030 under the WEM and WAM scenario
WEM

WAM

Kt/year
2005

2020

2025

2030

2020

2025

2030

NOx

276

152

129

107

152

124

97

VOC

252

173

148

141

173

144

126

SO2

208

82

65

60

82

60

54

NH3

77

66

68

72

66

53

57

PM2.5

43

28

20

17

28

18

13

Source: NECP

64

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

6 Country: Germany
Biomass deployment trajectory
6.1.1 Demand for biomass
During the last 20 years, Germany has shown a significant increase in the share of renewable sources
for electricity, from less than 40,000 GWh in 2000 to around 270,000 GWh in 2018. As Figure 6-1
suggests, wind energy is the main renewable electricity source following by solar PV and otherrenewable sources, such as geothermal energy. Primary biomass did not contribute significantly during
the in-scope period, however other bioenergy sources, such as biofuels and renewable waste, increased
considerably during the last decade, exceeding 40,000 GWh in 2018.
Figure 6-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Germany (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
In terms of heating generation, solid biomass and biogas contributed the most to the energy mix, with a
combined production of more than 130,000 GWh in 2015. Heat pumps, solar thermal and MSW
renewable also contributed significantly during the whole period 2004-2018.

65

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 6-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Germany (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019

The projections in the NECP regarding electricity generation suggest that overall the share of
renewables will continue to increase in the next decade, especially from offshore wind energy and solar
PV. the contribution of biomass is expected to remain stable at 4 Mtoe for 2020 and 2025 while adecrease is expected in 2030 to 3 Mtoe.
Figure 6-3 Projection of the renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Germany (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
In terms of heating and cooling generation, the NECP shows that biomass and renewable waste will holdthe biggest share of renewable production, however, an increase of only 1 Mtoe is expected from 2020
to 2030 (from 13 Mtoe to 14 Mtoe respectively). The production from the other renewable energy
sources will increase from 2 Mtoe in 2020 to 6 Mtoe in 2030.

66

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 6-4 Projection of the renewable energy mix for heating and cooling generation in Germany (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
The trajectory of biomass in the next decade is provided in Table 6-1. The use of biomass shows adownward trend in the electricity sector in 2030, while for transport and heating an increase is
expected. That decrease can be attributed to the fact that electricity production from biomass is morecost-effective than other renewables, such as wind and solar PV.
Table 6-1 Expected trajectory for biomass demand
PJ
Transformation input forelectricity generation

Final consumption ofenergy for transport

Final energy consumption
for heating purposes(including biodiesel inagriculture)

Final energy consumption

2021

2025

2030

Solid biomass

91

75

69

Liquid biomass

0

0

0

Biogas

254

251

218

Biogenic waste

62

62

61

Solid biomass

106

99

98

Liquid biomass

32

37

45

Biogas2

5

10

Biogenic waste

0

0

0

Solid biomass

425

430

421

Liquid biomass

14

17

19

Biogas

98

120

124

Biogenic waste

78

81

83

Solid biomass

1,130

1,140

1,104

Liquid biomass

516

505

490

Biogas

119

116

118

67

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biogenic waste

354

376

352

Source: NECP
6.1.2 Supply of biomass
According to the NECP, future sources of bioenergy will mainly be waste and residues. Cultivation areas
are not expected to be expanded due to land surface area restrictions. The domestic potential ofGermany’s bioenergy is estimated to be between 1000 and 1200 PJ. The NECP does not mention inparticular forest biomass sources nor the impact on the LULUCF sink.

Biomass policies and measures
6.2.1 Current policies
Current and planned policies are mixed in the NECP of Germany, since there are many existingmeasures that will continue to be in force in the next years, and some additional measures have been
introduced and are expected to be implemented in the future. For example, the Renewable Energy
Sources Act, which was launched in 2000 and was amended in 2014 and 2020, aims to increase the shareof renewables (including biomass) in the power supply to at least 80% by 2050. It therefore represents
the main foundation for achieving the relevant goals in the electricity sector.
The policies related to bioenergy are presented in the next section.
6.2.2 Planned policies
The specific measures targeting bioenergy promotion that will be implemented in Germany are:

Funding programme ‘Use of Biomass for the Generation of Energy’: introduced in 2015, itprioritises practical solutions in the form of demonstration or pilot projects which increase
the flexibility of biomass-based systems for the generation of electricity and heat. In orderto improve sustainable energy use in the (coupled) heat and electricity sector, theprogramme aims to tap into the potential of biomass residues and waste.



Funding programme ‘Renewable Raw Materials’: The aim of this programme is to promoteresearch, development and demonstration projects relating to the use of renewable raw
materials to generate energy. Alongside research and development projects, it focuses inparticular on practical demonstration and pilot projects in the area of processoptimisation.

Support of advanced biofuels: supports the development of liquid and gaseous renewablefuels from biomass and their large-scale production in biogas and synthesis plants.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
6.3.1 Historic impacts
Table 6-2 shows the historical GHG impacts from implementation of existing measures. The energy
sector contributes the most to GHG emissions, yet its share decreased from 802 million tonnes CO2
equivalent in 2010 to 720 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2018. The projection of the emissions
depicted in Table 6-3 suggests that a further decrease will be recorded reaching in total 611 million
tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2040.

68

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 6-2 Historical GHG emissions in Germany (2010-2018)
Milliontonnes

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

802

778

785

802

762

767

770

752

720

141

142

140

140

140

139

139

142

138

942

919

924

942

902

906

909

894

858

CO2eq
Energyrelated
emissionsNonenergyrelated
emissions
Total

Source: NECP
Table 6-3 Projection of GHG emissions in Germany with existing national policies and measures (2021-2040)
Milliontonnes

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2040

703

706

710

707

694

675

658

647

628

615

499

127

126

124

123

122

121

120

119

118

117

111

830

831

834

830

816

796

778

766

746

731

611

CO2eq
Energyrelated
emissionsNon-energyrelated
emissions
Total

Source: NECP
Further, the share of renewables in the energy mix will continue to increase both in the electricity andin the heating and cooling sector. More specifically, for electricity, the share of offshore wind willalmost double by 2040, while the use of biomass will be decrease by half. In the heating sector,
biomass will continue to be the most dominant source and its share will increase by 2.5%.
Table 6-4 Share of renewable energies as a percentage of total sectoral consumption with existingmeasures(2021-2040)
Sector

RES

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2040

16.8

17.0

17.0

17.1

17.4

17.9

18.2

18.7

19.3

19.7

22.9

5.5

5.8

6.3

6.8

7.3

7.8

8.5

9.1

9.7

10.3

10.9

Photovoltaics

8.3

8.7

9.2

9.6

10.0

10.4

10.8

11.2

11.6

11.9

13.6

Hydropower

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

Onshorewind
Offshore
Electricity

wind

69

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.7

3.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

12.9

13.1

13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

14.3

14.4

14.5

15.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.4

4.6

7.2

Biogenic
fraction ofwaste
Biomass andrenewable
Heating

waste

andcooling

Other
renewableenergies

Source: NECP
6.3.2 Estimated future impacts
By implementing the additional policies, Germany is expected to further decrease GHG emissions, as
Table 6-5 indicates. The total emissions in 2040 will be 311 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, while therespective level without the additional measures is 611 million tonnes CO2 equivalent. In terms of otherair pollutants, Germany is expected to make great progress by implementing the additional measures.
More specifically, the NOx emissions will decrease from 1016.9 in 2020 to 637.3 kilotonnes in 2030,
while the emissions of volatile hydrocarbons (NMVOC) will fall from 1018.8 in 2020 to 986.7 kilotonnes
in 2030. PM2,5 are expected to fall from 93 to 77.4 kilotonnes in the same period, while SO2 values willalmost halve, from 315.3 to 166.7 killotonnes. Finally NH3 emissions will be reduced by 123.1
kilotonnes between 2020 and 2030.
Finally, the additional measures will contribute to further increase the renewable share in the energy
mix of electricity and heating and cooling sector, as Table 6-6 suggests.
Table 6-5 Projection of GHG emissions in Germany with additional policies and measures (2021-2040)
Million tonnes
CO2eq
Energy-related
emissions

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2040

693

672

651

634

613

592

572

548

520

485

217

127

125

124

122

121

119

117

116

114

112

94

820

797

775

756

734

711

689

664

634

598

311

Non-energyrelated
emissions
Total

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 6-6 Share of renewable energies as a percentage of total sectoral consumption with additional measures(2021-2040)
SectorElectricity

RES

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2040

Onshore wind

17.0

18.0

18.8

19.7

20.3

20.5

20.6

21.2

22.1

23.1

28.0

Offshore wind

4.9

5.3

5.8

6.3

6.7

7.4

8.0

9.2

10.5

12.8

25.6

Photovoltaics

8.9

9.9

10.9

11.9

12.7

13.6

14.4

14.9

15.4

15.9

19.3

Hydropower

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

2.9

Biomass

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.4

4.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

13.3

13.7

14.2

14.6

15.1

15.5

15.8

16.0

16.3

16.7

28.8

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.5

5.1

5.6

6.2

6.7

7.5

19.0

Biogenic
fraction ofwaste
Biomass andrenewable
Heating

waste

andcooling

Other
renewableenergies

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

7 Country: Denmark
Biomass deployment trajectory
7.1.1 Demand for biomass
The most extensively renewable source for electricity generation in Denmark was wind for the totalityof the in-scope years. Solid biomass played also an important role in the overall production andincreased ten-fold from 2000 to 2018. Other bioenergy (biofuels, biogases and renewable waste) also
increased, but in a moderate pace (Figure 7-1). Solid biomass and biogas dominated the heatingproduction, showing an overall increasing trend up to 2017 (Figure 7-2).
Figure 7-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Denmark (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 7-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Denmark (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 201972

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

The projections provided from the NECP show that for electricity Denmark will continue to depend
mainly on wind energy (offshore and onshore), while solar PV and bioenergy (biomass, biogases andbioliquids) will complement the renewable energy mix. For heating purposes, bioenergy will be themain renewable source also for the next decade, while heat pumps are expected to increasesignificantly by 2030.
Figure 7-3 Projection of renewables electricity consumption in Denmark up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 7-4 Projection of renewables for heating consumption in Denmark up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
7.1.2 Supply of biomass
In Figure 7-5 the fuel types of biomass are depicted; wood biomass constitutes more than half of thetotal bioenergy consumption. According to the NECP, wood pellets are mainly imported from othercountries, while the majority of the other bioenergy forms are produced domestically.
Forest biomass, which comprises wood chips, firewood, wood pellets and wood residues is expected todecrease slightly in the coming years. The “Voluntary Danish industry agreement on sustainablebiomass” ensures that forest biomass is produced sustainably and the use of biomass leads to CO273Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

reductions. Also, the “Danish forest regulation” is set in action to ensure that the existing forests aremaintained and increase the forest area.
Figure 7-5 Projection of biomass supply by type of fuel up to 2030

Source: NECP

Biomass policies and measures
7.2.1 Current policies

In 2018 a Danish Energy Agreement has been conducted with the aim of funding the path
towards a 55% renewable share by 2030 in Denmark. It also includes a stock of 400 million DKK
in 2025 and 500 million DKK annually from 2026.

Denmark’s coal fire plants have been or are being converted to the use of biomass by the endof 2025.

In 2012 an Energy Agreement took place which expanded the conversion of biomass from fossil
fuels at large combined heat and power plants.



In 2014 a voluntary industry agreement has been concluded on sustainable biomass with theaim of establishing sustainability criteria for the use of solid biomass in energy production,
thereby encouraging the industry’s members to purchase sustainable biomass.

Currently, a premium scheme is taking place to support the use of biomass in existing
installations with a fixed premium of 0.15 DKK/kWh, which was supplemented by a tax
exemption on biomass fuels for heat production until the end of 2019.

Denmark provides subsidies for renewable energy technologies, e.g., biomass.

7.2.2 Planned policies
Denmark currently has no specific measures that promote the production of electricity fromnew biomass installations after 2020.



Biomass for heating purposes is promoted by the absence of energy and CO2 taxes on heat fromrenewable sources.



A new policy framework has been established in 2018 for the period of 2020 and 2024 with theaim to allocate funding to achieve that renewable share in electricity is above 100% ofconsumption, and to ensure that at least 90% of district heating consumption is based onenergy sources other than coal, oil or gas by 2030. The Energy policy Agreement also lifts theprohibition of direct heat production based on biomass.
74Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

From 2020, a support scheme worth of 114 million DKK is being established to invest in heatproduction based on electric heat-pumps, biomass boilers and solar thermal plants.



It is expected that these measures will endorse the deployment of electrical heat pumps
compared to biomass burners

Impacts of planned policies and measures
7.3.1 Historic impacts
See next section for historical GHG emissions.
7.3.2 Estimated future impacts
Figure 7-6 shows the historical and the projection of the GHG emissions under the scenario of theimplementation of the existing policies. Considerable decrease is expected from 2020 to 2040, for theCO2 emissions, while the values of the other air pollutants will remain relatively stable.
Denmark has not done any projections yet considering the implementation of the additional measures.
Figure 7-6 Historical and projected GHG emissions considering the existing policies

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

8 Country: Estonia
Biomass deployment trajectory
8.1.1 Demand for biomass
In the beginning of the 2000’s Estonia had barely any renewable production in the electricity sector, as
is depicted in Figure 8-1. After 2009, significant increase in the renewable shares was recorded. During
the period 2009-2018, Estonia was mainly based in wind energy and solid biomass for renewableelectricity production. The share of solid biomass increased almost 10 times during the in-scope period.
Significant increase in solid biomass was also recorded in the heat generation after 2006, reaching
8,500 GWh in 2017 (Figure 8-2).
Figure 8-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Estonia (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 8-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Estonia (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 201976

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

The projections provided from the NECP suggest that wind and biomass will continue to dominate therenewable production and consumption for electricity in Estonia, while the overall renewable share will
increase up to 2030 reaching 4000 GWh (Figure 8-3). In the sector of heating, the NECP does notindicate any biomass production (Figure 8-4).
Figure 8-3 Projection of renewable share in electricity consumption up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
Figure 8-4 Projection of renewable share in heat consumption up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
8.1.2 Supply of biomass
The main source of biomass is wood, but the consumption is limited by the forestry development planand the sustainability criteria. It is expected that the wood use will increase the following years as aresult of measures that are listed in the next section. Further part of the wood biomass is exported aswood pellets and part of it is used domestically in energy. According to the NECP, Estonia has in total
486 million m3 woodland reserve area and the logged volumes are determined as a social agreement in77

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

the forestry development plans for a ten-year period. The projections about the long-term sustainablelevel of the forestry sector according to a moderate scenario is 12-15 million m3 per year.
The LULUCF sector plays an important role in the national carbon cycle, as it is the only potential GHG
emission sink in Estonia. As a result of the LULUCF sector, almost 1800 kt CO2 was removed in 2017,
which is more than 20% greater than in 1990.

Biomass policies and measures
8.2.1 Current policies
Support is provided for the electricity that is generated from biomass through funding. Furthermore, anadditional FBC boiler block has been constructed to reduce Estonian CO2 emissions. It is designed in a
way that biomass can make up around 50% of the fuel used during the power plant’s operation.
8.2.2 Planned policies
8 main measures have been introduced for achieving the national energy efficiency target for 2030,
including increasing the alternative fuels in transport, increasing the energy efficiency of the existingbuilding stock and new buildings and efficient thermal transmission, which contribute the most to thedeployment of biomass resources.

b.

Impacts of planned policies and measures

8.2.3 Historic impacts
The GHG emissions in Estonia have fell significantly compared to the 1990 levels, as Figure 8-5 suggests.
The largest contributor is the energy industry accounting for 88.76% of the total GHG emissions in 2017.
Figure 8-5 Historical GHG emissions in Estonia

Source: NECP

78

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

8.2.4 Estimated future impacts
According to the estimations, emissions will be 54.7% less in 2040 than in 2016. The biggest reduction is
expected to take place in the energy industry. Estonia is aiming to reduce GHG emissions byapproximately 72% of 1990 levels by 2040.
Figure 8-6 Projection of GHG emissions under the additional measures scenario up to 2040 including LULUCF

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

9 Country: Finland
Biomass deployment trajectory
9.1.1 Demand for biomass
Renewable energy sources accounted for on average 35% of Finland’s energy mix for electricity
generation in the period 2000-2018. Hydropower holds the biggest share, followed by primary solid
biomass, which production increased by 39% from 2000 to 2018. Also, the use of other bioenergy
sources, such as biogas and renewable waste, skyrocketed from 137 GWh in 2000 to 1089 GWh in 2018.
Figure 9-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Finland (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances

Renewables produce almost a quarter of Finland’s heating production, with solid biomass being themain source, while biogas played a marginal role. During the period 2004-2018 solid biomass increased
from 67,500 GWh to 97,700 GWh.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 9-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Finland (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
According to the projection of the NECP, the share of renewables in electricity generation will continue
to increase reaching 50 TWh in 2030 (Figure 9-3). Hydropower, wind energy and solid biomass will be
the main sources, while solar PV will play a marginal role. Regarding heating and cooling (Figure 9-4),
biomass will continue to lead the renewable consumption and production, reaching 97 TWh in 2030.
Heat pumps will complement the renewable share reaching 7 TWh in 2030.
Figure 9-3 Projection of the renewable energy mix for electricity consumption in Finland with additional
measures (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

81

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 9-4 Projection of the renewable energy mix for heat and cooling consumption in Finland with additional
measures (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
9.1.2 Supply of biomass
A further disaggregation of the biomass by types is provided in Table 9-1. Wood residues and forest
chips will see the biggest increase in the next decade, while black liquor will also rise by 5 TWh thenext 10 years. The use of waste on the other hand will remain stable, while a slight increase is
expected for pellets.
Overall, biomass is a key energy source of renewable production in Finland, mainly produced
domestically. Wood fuels alone contributed a quarter of the country’s final energy consumption in the
recent years and as Table 9-1 indicates the consumption will keep growing. Nevertheless, NECP
suggests that since most of the forest-based energy comes from industrial wood wastes and residues
and harvesting and forest management residues, the LULUCF sink impact is small.
Table 9-1 Biomass by type in the WAM projection in TWh
Biomass typeBlack liquor and otherconcentrated liquors
Industrial wood residue andforest chips
Small-scale combustion ofwood, pellets, etc.
Waste (biodegradable
fraction)
Total

2020

2025

2030

44

47

49

41

48

50

19

19

20

4

4

4

109

118

123

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass policies and measures
9.2.1 Current policies
The policies that are already in place regarding bioenergy enhancement are:

Promoting forest chips and other wood based fuelsPromoting biogas in electricity and heat production

Promoting biogas transport

9.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies that Finland will set in action for the promotion of renewable energy sources andmore specifically bioenergy are:

Production aid for electricity from renewable energy sources: government support forelectricity production based on wind power, biogas and small-scale CHP (wood fuels). Even
though the scheme is concluded, the plants under the scheme will receive the aid up to 12
years from the start of production.



Aid for the use of forest chips: The aid is granted to compensate for the higher production
costs of electricity from forest chips compared to fossil fuels.

Energy Aid Scheme: Investment subsidies are targeted primarily at the commercialisation of
new technologies and to the non-ETS sector, including plants producing advanced biofuels fortransport, and non-ETS electricity and heat production of companies. The typical annual
budget has been EUR 30–40 million but each year the budgets are being re-evaluated. From
2019, additional 40 million euros are allocated for large demonstration projects.

Promotion of the use of biofuels: this is an existing measure from 2008, which will continue
to be in force. It regards the share of the energy content of biofuels in the total energy
content of the petrol, diesel oil and biofuels delivered by distributors for consumption.

Energy taxation: Energy taxation provides an incentive for the use of bioenergy in CHP
production and building-specific heat production.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
9.3.1 Historic impacts
Historical GHG emissions are showing a downward trend, while small fluctuations are observed for the
LULUCF sinks. A further decline is expected in the next decades by implementing the existingmeasures, reaching a bit more that 40 mtCO2eq in 2040. The energy sector contributes the most in theoverall emissions, followed by transport and industry.

83Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 9-5 Historical greenhouse gas emissions and the projected emissions up to 2040 on current national andEU policies and measures.

Source: NECP
9.3.2 Estimated future impacts
According to the NECP, by implementing the additional measures, Finland will reduce its emissions to
39 MtCO2eq (the respective number for implementing only the existing measures is 52 MtCO2eq) (Figure9-6). In addition, the share of renewable energy will exceed 50% of the gross final consumption, while
Finland will phase out coal by 2029. Finally, the electricity demand is expected to increase the coming
decades, while wind and solar PV power is expected to play a key role in the period 2020-2030.
Figure 9-6 Historical greenhouse gas emissions and the projected emissions up to 2040 considering theimplementation of the additional measures

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 9-7 Historical and future projection for electricity demand and supply under the WAM scenario

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

10 Country: France
Biomass deployment trajectory
10.1.1 Demand for biomass
The historical renewable mix for electricity generation in France mainly consists of hydroenergy, whilewind energy and solar PV increased their share in recent years. Solid biomass and other bioenergy(liquid biofuels, biogases and renewable waste) played a marginal role during the in-scope period. For
heat generation, solid biomass held the lion’s share of the renewable energy mix fluctuating around
100,000 GWh in the entire period 2004-2018. Biogas increased in share after 2015, yet its role wasrather marginal.
Figure 10-1 Historical renewable mix for electricity generation in France (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 10-2 Historical renewable mix for heat generation in France (2004-2018) (GWh)86

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projection for electricity generation from renewables in the NECP shows that solid biomass willcontinue to play a marginal role, while wind energy, solar PV and hydroenergy will dominate therenewable energy mix (Figure 10-3). On the other hand, in the heating and cooling sector, solid biomass
will be the dominant renewable source, yet a small increase is expected from 145 TWh in 2023 to 157
TWh in 2028. It is worth to mention that there is a significant difference between the figures provided
from Eurostat and the NECP in terms of solid biomass production. For a reference, in 2017 for heating
purposes, Eurostat suggests that the production was 13 TWh, while the respective figure for the NECP
suggests 120 TWh.

Figure 10-3 Projection of the renewable mix for electricity generation in France

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 10-4 Projection of the renewable mix for heat and cooling generation in France

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

10.1.2 Supply of biomass
Solid biomass is the leading renewable energy in France: in 2017, it represented 78% of renewable heatproduction. This sector includes the wood used by households, industry, collective and tertiary heating,biomass cogeneration and urban waste. Forest biomass consists of softwood lumber, industry/energy
lumber, wood scraps and sawmill products.
However, the biomass sector is lagging the MEP’s 35 2018 target. Also, it is established that biomass has
not always been used the most efficient ways, therefore the use of biomass for heat production should
be promoted.
The National Biomass Mobilisation Strategy aims to mobilise biowaste resources for 2023, out of which
52 TWh is solid biomass. The NECP includes estimates for the total supply of solid biomass based onwhether the biomass is suitable for methanation or not. As demonstrated in Table 10-1, the total supplyof solid biomass not usable for methanation up to 2028 is estimated at 251 TWh, of which 120 TWh isforest biomass. The data on methanised biomass is shown in Table 10-2.
Table 10-1 Total biomass supply- Non-methanised biomass is in primary energy
TWhForest biomass

2023

2028

106

120

86

89

28.5

29.5

8.4

9.3

2.1

3.5

2023

2028

2.3

2.4

6.7

11.3

Crops (perennial andIntermediate
Agricultural
biomass

Crops for Energy
Purposes)Non-methanised

Crop residues

biomass

Agroforestry
Waste (including
Waste andend-of-lifeotherwood), by-products,

residues

pruning)
Composting refuse

Source: NECP
Table 10-2 Additional biomass supply as final energy
TWhCrops (perennial andIntermediate
Methanised

Agricultural

biomass

biomass

Crops for Energy
Purposes)
Crop residues

35

The Multiannual Energy Plan (programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie, MEP), establishes the priorities for government
action in the field of energy for the next 10 years, divided into two five-year periods.

88Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Green wastes

1.2

1.9

STEP slurry

0.2

0.4

Waste and agri-food

0.2

0.5

7.8

13.3

Waste and
other
residues

by-products

Effluents

Source: NECP

Biomass policies and measures
10.2.1 Current policies


The Heat Fund financed the establishment of almost 1100 biomass boilers between 2009 and
2017.



Promote heat recovery from biomass before high-yield cogeneration.

Analyse biomass on a regional level to mobilise underexploited biomass sources.



MEP encourages to prioritize biomass where it is most effective: for district heating systems orfor the production of industrial heat.

10.2.2 Planned policies


The National Bioeconomy Strategy and the associated Action Plan for 2018–2020 combine
within a single framework all the public policies relating to biomass.



The National Biomass Mobilisation Strategy established broad guidelines for mobilising biomass
as effectively as possible.

To achieve carbon neutrality, the total decarbonisation of energy production is necessary by
2050, which includes the use of biomass resources.



As generating electricity from biomass is very expensive, support will be reserved for heatgeneration from biomass resources.



No biomass cogeneration tenders will be launched over the Multiannual Energy Plan (MEP)
periodThe Government will not grant any financial support for projects that aim to generate
electricity using biomass.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
10.3.1 Historic impacts
See next section for the historical GHG emissions.
10.3.2 Estimated future impacts
It is expected that the energy mix by 2050 will be almost carbon-free, consisting of renewables andrecovered heat, biomass, carbon-free electricity and renewable gas. Further, the NECP suggests thatthe use of Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will be mobilised and will contribute to the
avoidance of 6 MtCO2 per year in industry in 2050 and to achieve negative emissions for biomass energy
generation installations (BECCS).

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 10-5 depicts the historical and projected GHG emissions in France. The projections considering
the additional measures (green line) suggest significantly lower emissions, due to the improvement ofenergy efficiency and further developments of the renewable energies, which would enhance thedecarbonisation of the transport, buildings and energy generation by 2050.
Considering the environmental impact of biomass use, three major challenges have been identified
namely mitigating climate change, preservation of soil quality and the preservation and reinforcementof biodiversity and ecosystem services. Biomass production has an impact on air pollution, which can beharmful in the long-term. Furthermore, the increased use of biomass may cause indirect impacts
associated with an intensification and extension of agricultural and forest production systems.
Figure 10-5 Historical and projection of GHG emissions with and without LULUCF under the existing measuresscenario (WEM) and the additional measures scenario (WAM)

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

11 Country: Greece
Biomass deployment trajectory
11.1.1 Demand for biomass
In terms of historical trends regarding the electricity generation, the share of biomass in the renewableenergy mix is rather small during the whole in-scope period, contributing on average only 2%, whilehydropower was the main renewable source. In terms of heating production, Greece main sources were
solid biomass, solar thermal and heat pumps. The generation of solid biomass picked in 2013 at 13,000
GWh, followed by a decreasing trend the next years.
Figure 11-1 Renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Greece (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 11-2 Renewable energy mix for heat generation in Greece (2004-2018) (GWh)91

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
For the future projection of the energy system in the NECP, the additional policies have been taken
into account, on top of the existing ones. It is expected that primary solid biomass will be extensively
used for heating and cooling purposes up to 2030, while the share of biofuels in transportation is also
expected to increase by 5% from 2020 to 2030, including multipliers. In terms of electricity generation,
it is expected that the share of bioenergy (biomass, biogas and bioliquids) will increase almost six-fold.
Figure 11-3 Future projections of Greece’s renewable energy mix for electricity generation up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 11-4 Future projections of Greece’s renewable energy mix for heating consumption up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

11.1.2 Supply of biomass
According to the NECP, the use of biomass for heating during the last decade was extensive, peaking in
2012. The main source of solid biomass was the domestic firewood. In the next decade, a slightdecrease is expected for heating and cooling purposes, while in the transportation sector the
consumption of biofuels will rise. The results disagree with the findings of Eurostat, which do notconsider any heat production from renewable sources during the last 20 years. No indication is provided
in the NECP regarding the sources of biomass, the use of forest biomass and its impact on LULUCF. Also,
the shares of domestic and imported biomass supply is not provided.
Figure 11-5 Renewable energy sources for heating (2010-2017)▪ Geothermal energy ▪ Solar thermal ▪ Biomass & biogas ▪ Heat pumps
Source: NECP- Annex B

Biomass policies and measures
11.2.1 Current policies
There are already several measures and policies in action in Greece aiming to achieve the goals of theEnergy Union. The ones related with biomass and biofuels are:Table 11-1 Policies in action concerning biomass and biofuels in Greece
CO2 emissions savings
Name of policy measure

Use of biofuels intransportation
Biogas recovery

Sector affected(ktCO2eq)

Year of implementation
2020

2025

2030

Transportation

2005

650

810

960

Waste management

2002

800

900

1000

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

11.2.2 Planned policies
The contribution of biomass to the energy mix of Greece was limited historically, according to the
NECP. However, given its potential in terms of agricultural activities and as a fuel, there will be someefforts for further development of the energy infrastructure and intensification of its use as a fuel by
proposing specific measures and policies. The planned measures specifically addressed for biomass andbiofuels are:Table 11-2 Planned policies concerning biomass and biofuels in Greece
Name of policy measure

TargetSector affected

Category of measure

Development of supply chains forresidual biomass/biodegradable
matter and support for the

Increase in RES fordevelopment and implementation ofheating-cooling

Heating, cooling

Regulatory, economic
measureoptimal environmental and energyefficient bioenergy applications
Waste reduction
Priority in the use of waste (agrilivestock units and industries, urban)

Electricity

RES penetration

Regulatory, economic
measureincrease
Supply chain organisation and land

Waste reduction

planning of sites for temporarystorage of agricultural/forest residual
biomass.
Maintenance and extension of the

RES penetration

fuels.

Regulatory, technical,

sectors

economic measure

increase

Waste reduction

Electricity

RES penetration

Heating and coolingincrease

Transportsustainability certification scheme
for biofuels, bioliquids and solid

All final consumption

Regulatory measure

Waste reduction
Sustainable forest management

Increase in

All final consumption

Regulatory, technical,

absorption of GHG

sectors

economic measure

Waste reduction

Waste reduction

Transport

Economic measureemissions
Strengthening the primary sector
through the promotion of energy
crops of woody biomass or coppice

Waste reduction

plantations.
Creation and enhancement of the

RES penetration

domestic bioethanol market.

increase

Boosting the consumption of biofuels

RES penetration

Heating and coolingincrease

Transport

Regulatory measure

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Impacts of planned policies and measures
11.3.1 Historic impacts
In terms of historical CO2 emissions, an overall decrease was recorded which was especially significant
for the energy sector (i.e. 35% less CO2 emissions in 2017 compared to 2005). Electricity generationfrom biomass and biogas remained very low, yet regarding space heating, solid biomass was the main
renewable source for the period 2010-2017, according to the NECP. It is worth to mention however thatthe extensive use of inappropriate firewood in the major Greek cities during the last 5 years, provoked
great environmental problems such as smog and high concentration of Particulate Matters (PMs).
11.3.2 Estimated future impacts
The planned policies are expected to have major economic impacts in the next decade. Morespecifically, by 2030, due to the increased penetration of renewables in the energy mix, it is expectedthat the domestic added value will be increased by 12.6 billion euros throughout the interventions,while a rise in the income of the involved employees is expected by 4.8 billion euros. Further, 37,400
new jobs will be created and the public health will benefit by 19.5 DALYs36. Finally, 9 billion euros are
expected to be invested for electricity generation from renewables in the period 2020-2030.
In terms of environmental impact, the additional measures will contribute to the reductions of the total
GHG emissions from 82 MtCO2eq in 2020 to 55 MtCO2eq in 2040, as indicated in Table 11-3.
Table 11-3 Projection of GHG emissions in Greece
2020

2022

2025

2027

2030

2035

2040

82

73

69

67

61

58

55

Total GHG
emissions notinclusive ofinternational airtransport (MtCO2eq)

Source: NECP

36

Disability-adjusted life year: One DALY represents the loss of the equivalent of one year of full health. DALYs for adisease or health condition are the sum of the years of life lost to due to premature mortality (YLLs) and the years
lived with a disability (YLDs) due to prevalent cases of the disease or health condition in a population. (WHO,2020)

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

12 Country: Hungary
Biomass deployment trajectory
12.1.1 Demand for biomass
For most of the years, Hungary was mainly relied on solid biomass to fulfil the electricity needs fromrenewable sources, while other bioenergy forms, such as biogases and waste, increased significantly the
recent years. In terms of heating production (Figure 12-2), a surge in solid biomass was recorded,
reaching a peak in 2013 at 28,000 GWh.
Figure 12-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Hungary (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances

96Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 12-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Hungary (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The future projections as provided by Hungary’s NECP show that renewable energy production in theelectricity sector is expected to account for 17% of total renewable energy consumption by 2030; solar
PV and solid biomass will be the main sources of electricity in an overall increasing rate (Figure 12-3).
Bioethanol and biodiesel will dominate the heating and cooling sector. It is noteworthy that in 2030 theshare of renewables is expected to fall significantly compared to the 2029 values, as depicted in Figure
12-4.
Figure 12-3 Projection of renewable energy consumption-electricity (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 12-4 Projection of renewable energy consumption-heating and cooling (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
12.1.2 Supply of biomass
Hungary uses forest biomass to fulfil part of its energy needs. The amount of forest biomass is expected
to increase the following years from 855 ha to 3800 ha, considering the implementation of theadditional measures.
Table 12-1 Forest biomass supply up to 2030 in Hungary considering the implementation of additional measures(ha)
WEM scenario (ha)

2017

2021

2022

2025

2027

2030

Oak

133

600

600

800

900

900

53

300

300

300

300

400

464

1 000

1 000

1 400

1 400

1 400

95

100

100

300

300

300

106

500

500

800

800

800

2,500

2,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

Turkey oak andother hard
deciduous
AcaciaCanadian poplars
és white willow
Domestic poplar
and other soft
deciduous
Scotch pine

4Black pine1

Spruce and other
pine
Total

0
855

Source: NECP

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However, it is important to mention that there is a cross-border supply of raw material of biomass,
therefore its environmental impact is produced partly in neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the
LULUCF sector will remain a net sink.

Biomass policies and measures
12.2.1 Current policies


Until the end of 2016, the increase in electricity generation can be attributed to the so-called feed-in
system (FIS), as it provided operational support. However, in 2017 his system was replaced by the
Renewable Energy Aid Scheme (REAS), which supports the market integration of renewable energy
generation and the use of renewable energy in addition to providing operational support.



Between 2014 and 2020, aid has been invested in the construction of heat generating facilities basedon renewable energy sources, which contributed to the significant increase in biomass based andgeothermal generation of district heat.



The implementation of the Green District Heating Programme contributed significantly to replacing
natural gas and to endorse the increasing use of renewable energy on the Hungarian heat market.

12.2.2 Planned policies

After the 2014-2020 programming period for the investment in heat generating facilities end,
the construction of new biomass capacities will be encouraged through a non-refundable aid
programme. This aid programme will encourage the burning of biomass in efficient individual
heating equipment to satisfy local heating and cooling needs for modern buildings.



Through the operation of the REAS scheme, further establishment of biomass power plants
will be encouraged.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
12.3.1 Historic impacts
See next section for historical emissions.
12.3.2 Estimated future impacts
In 1990, Hungary exceeded the 90,000 ktCo2eq as Figure 12-5 suggests. It is estimated that GHG
emissions will decline sharply by 2040 under the WAM scenario, resulting to a decrease of 8% between
2017 and 2030 and 17% between 2030 and 2040. Thereby, under the WAM scenario, a total of 7,600 kt
CO2eq is expected to decrease by 2040, which is sufficient to realise the targeted 40% decline
compared to the 1990 level. As reported, CO2 will continue to be the main source of GHG emission, but
it is likely to decrease by 10% by 2030. It is also expected that the individual sectors’ contribution tototal emissions will change considerably by 2040 compared to 2017 levels.
In terms of energy mix, renewables will continue to grow considerably up to 2030, followed by amoderate growth until 2040 under the WEM scenario (Figure 12-6).

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Figure 12-5 Historical and future GHG emissions considering existing measures (WEM) and additional measures(WAM)

Source: NECP

Figure 12-6 Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption considering existing measures (WEM)
and additional measures (WAM)

Source: NECP

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13 Country: Ireland
Biomass deployment trajectory
13.1.1 Demand for biomass
The renewable energy mix has grown considerably the last years in Ireland, reaching more than 10,000
GWh in 2018. Also, the share of wind energy has significantly risen and after 2005 it was the main
renewable energy source of the country. Bioenergy played a marginal role in the period 2000-2018, yet
the share of solid biomass and other bioenergy (biogas and renewable waste) has increased the recent
years, reaching 514 and 330 GWh in 2018. The historical figures of heating production show that solid
biomass was the primary energy source, following by heat pumps solar thermal and MSW renewables.
Figure 13-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Ireland (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 13-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Ireland (2004-2018) (GWh)101

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The future projections of NECP under the scenario of the implementation of additional measures (WAM)
suggest that there will be an increase in renewables both for electricity and heat production. Onshore
and offshore wind will dominate the generation of electricity, while the share of solid biomass is
expected to decrease from 60 ktoe in 2021 to 30 ktoe in 2040. However, an increase is expected inbiogas and biodegradable municipal solid waste from 28 ktoe in 2021 to 74 ktoe in 2040 (Figure 13-3).
Regarding heat production, biomass and heat pumps will be the main renewable sources; the share ofbiomass is expected to increase in a steady pace, yet significant rise of heat pump production is
projected reaching more than 900 ktoe in 2040 (Figure 13-4).
Figure 13-3 Projection of renewable mix for electricity generation under the WAM scenario (2018-2040)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 13-4 Projection of renewable mix for heat generation under the WAM scenario (2018-2040)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

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13.1.2 Supply of biomass
Biomass feedstock in Ireland comes from forestry, agricultural crops, agricultural residues and waste.
Table 13-1 indicates that biomass from forestry agricultural residues and waste will be produced
domestically, while most of the agricultural crops will be imported
Table 13-1 Projection of biomass supply by feedstock (WAM)
Biomass Supply by

2018

2020

2030

Biomass from Forestry

232

246

304

Domestic

167

181

277

Imported

65

65

26

31

40

94

Domestic

4

724

Imported

27

33

70

0.0

0.3

184

Domestic

0.0

0.0

183

Imported

0.0

0.3

0.4

Biomass from Waste

271

357

286

Domestic

169

175

232

Imported

102

182

53

Feedstock (ktoe)

Biomass from Agricultural
Crops

Biomass from Agricultural
Residues

Source: NECP

Biomass policies and measures
13.2.1 Current policies
Existing measures that regard the promotion of bioenergy are:

Renewable Electricity Support schemes:o

REFIT 1 first launched in 2009 and it was applied for the small wind (< 5MW), large
wind (>5MW), Hydroelectricity and Biomass/Landfill gas technologies. The support willcontinue until 2027.

o

REFIT 2 launched in 2012, it covers the same technologies as REFIT 1 and it willconclude in 2032.

o

REFIT 3 supports biomass technologies including anaerobic digestion (AD) andCombined Heat and Power (CHP). The end year of the scheme is 2030.



Biofuels Obligation Scheme: launched in 2010 and requires suppliers of road transport
fuels to include a certain percentage of environmentally sustainable biofuels across theirgeneral fuel mix.

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13.2.2 Planned policies
Ireland will continue to implement the policies mentioned in section 1.2.1. Other measures to be
applied related to bioenergy are:

Support Scheme for Renewable Heat: €300m during the period 2018-2027. The scheme incentivises
the installation and use of biomass and anaerobic digestion heating systems.



Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS): requires 70% of electricity being produced fromrenewable sources.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
13.3.1 Historic impacts
The amount of GHG by applying the existing measures are provided in Table 13-2. Agriculture is thelargest contributor, having a 34% share of the total emissions. Next come transport and energy industry
with 20.2% and 17.1% respectively. In most sectors, the emissions have increased, except for energy
industry, F-gases and waste.
Table 13-2 GHG emissions of Ireland for 2017 and 2018 by sector
Mt CO2eq

2017

2018

% Change

Agriculture

20.253

20.633

1.9%

Transport

12.02612.225

1.6%

Energy Industries

11.89910.631-10.7%

Residential

5.741

6.197

7.9%

Manufacturing Combustion

4.565

4.741

3.9%

Industrial Processes

2.270

2.316

2.0%

Commercial Services

1.072

1.129

5.3%

F-Gases

1.354

1.192

-11.9%

Public Services

0.906

0.980

8.2%

Waste

0.919

0.890

-3.2%

Total

61.00560.935-0.1%

Source: NECP
As Figure 13-5 indicates, in the next decades, transportation will decrease its emissions considerable
after 2030, while industrial and residential sector are expected to increase their emissions in therespective period. Tertiary sector which has the lowest emissions overall, will have stable emissions
with a slight increase also after 2030.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 13-5 Projection of GHG emissions under the WEM scenario

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
In terms of renewable share in the energy mix (Figure 13-6), the projection shows that most of the renewables will be used for electricity generation,
followed by heat and transport. Under the WEM scenario, in 2030 21.5% of the gross final consumption
will be renewables.
Figure 13-6 Projection of the share of renewables in gross final consumption for transport, heat and electricity

Source: NECP
13.3.2 Estimated future impacts

105Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

As

Figure 13-7 suggests, the reduction in emissions under the WAM scenario (orange line) are considerably
less than the WEM scenario (blue line). However, it is noteworthy that the targets will not be met evenwith the implementation of the additional measures.

Figure 13-7 Projection of GHG emissions under WEM and WAM along with the targets

Source: NECP
In terms of renewable share in electricity, the difference between the WEM and WAM scenario is significant for2030, since 15% more renewables are expected to produce electricity by implementing the additional measures(

Figure 13-8). Regarding heating shares, also a 10% increase in renewables is projected under the WAM
scenario compared to the WEM values in 2030.

106Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 13-8 Share of renewable electricity

Source: NECP

Figure 13-9 Share of renewable heat

Source: NECP
Finally, the air quality overall will be improved under the WAM scenarios. More specifically, SO2, NOx
and PM2.5 emissions are expected to decrease significantly by 2040, while the NMVOC and NH3 emissions
will remain relatively stable.

107Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

14 Country: Italy
Biomass deployment trajectory
14.1.1 Demand for biomass
The renewable energy mix of Italy during the period 2000-2018 consisted mainly of hydropower,
geothermal and non-renewable waste (other RES) and after 2011 wind energy, solar PV and bioenergy(biodiesel, biogases and renewable waste) contributed significantly to the total renewable production.
Specifically, bioenergy increased in generation from 969 GWh in 2000 to almost 15,000 GWh in 2018,
while primary biomass saw an increase of 3,767 GWh in the respective period.
Figure 14-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Italy (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
As depicted in Figure 14-2, Italy depends on primary biomass to fulfil heating requirements in terms ofrenewable sources, while heat pumps played also a significant role. After a steep decrease in all
renewables in 2011, they recorded an overall upward trend for the following 7 years.

108Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 14-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Italy (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projection provided in the NECP for the renewable mix, considering the additional measures thatwill be implemented, shows a continued increase in the trend, with solar PV and hydropower generating
the most electricity among other sources (Figure 14-3). The share of bioenergy is expected to remain
relatively the same. Regarding the projection of heating production, bioenergy will contribute themost, reaching 7,430 ktoe (86,411 GWh) in 2030, followed by heat pumps, which will generate almost
5,700 ktoe (66,290 GWh) in the respective year (Figure 14-4).
Figure 14-3 Projection for the renewable share used for electricity production in Italy with additional measures(2017-2030)37

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

37

Under “bioenergy” only the values of sustainable bioliquids are presented (NECP)

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 14-4 Projection of renewable targets in the thermal sector in Italy with additional measures (2017-2030)

38

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

14.1.2 Supply of biomass
The NECP suggests that the source of biofuels in 2016 and 2017 in Italy incldued vegetable oils, animaloils and fats, palm oil, used cooking oil, rape seed, wheat, corn and soybeans. The sources of biomass
are not mentioned. Further, 80% of biomass is domestically produced, and the aim is to keep this sharestable in the next decades. Figure 14-5 indicates, that biomass will be mainly used for heating purposes(yellow line), but in general no particular increase is expected by 2030 in any of the three sectors.
Figure 14-5 Projection of bioenergy contribution in the sector of electricity, transport and heating

Source: NECP

38

Under “bioenergy” only the values of sustainable bioliquids are presented (NECP)

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Biomass policies and measures
14.2.1 Current policies
The NECP outlines the current policies and measures for energy and climate regarding the fivedimensions of Energy Union. However, from the titles is not clear which measures might apply tobioenergy. The ones that are directly referred to bioenergy are:

Biofuels (Ministerial Decree of 10 October 2014, and subsequent amendments and additions)

Biomethane incentives (Ministerial Decree of 2 March 2018, and previous)

14.2.2 Planned policies
The policies related to bioenergy that will be set in action in order to achieve the targets of the NECPare:


Incentives for biomethane and other advanced biofuels: economic measure.

Obligation on biofuels and other RES, transposing RED II: regulatory measure.

Sustainability certification of biofuels: regulatory measure.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
14.3.1 Historic impacts
According to Table 14-1, the energy industry was the sector with the biggest share of emissions,followed by transport and residential and commercial. All sectors saw a decrease in emissions from2005 to 2015, with the most significant one being for energy.
Table 14-1 Historical greenhouse gas emissions in Italy (2005-2015)
MtCO2eq

2005

2010

2015

480

417

353

Energy industries

161

134

106

Industry

84

63

51

Transport*

128

115

106

Residential and commercial

87

88

74

9

8

8

11

10

8

101

87

80

47

36

32

32

30

29

From energy uses, ofwhich:

Agricultural energy
consumption
Other energy
From other sources, ofwhich:
Industrial processes
Crop and livestock
agriculture111

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Waste

22

20

19

TOTAL

581

504

433

Source: NECP
14.3.2 Estimated future impacts
The projection of GHG emissions shows a significant decrease in all sectors; the energy industries will
reduce their emissions in the next decade, due to the swift shift to renewable energy, mainly inelectricity sector. Transportation will also see a decrease in emissions due to the electrification of the
car industry and the use of biofuels. In terms of gases, a decrease is expected in all of them except for
PFCs and SF6, which will remain stable. Also, in terms of the energy mix that is estimated based on the
additional measures, renewables will account for 28% of the total primary demand in 2030, considerably
higher compared to the baseline scenario which accounts for 21%.
Table 14-2 Projection of GHG emissions in Italy up to 2030 considering the additional measures scenario
MtCO2eq

2020

2025

2030

328

283

256

Energy industries

89

62

57

Industry

53

52

48

Transport*

98

95

82

Residential and commercial

71

60

53

8

7

7

8

8

8

78

75

72

32

30

29

31

31

31

Waste

16

14

13

TOTAL

406

358

328

From energy uses, ofwhich:

Agricultural energy
consumption
Other energy
From other sources, ofwhich:
Industrial processes
Crop and livestock
agriculture

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Table 14-3 Projection of GHG emissions disaggregated by gases in Italy up to 2030 considering the additional
measures scenario
MtCO2eq

2020

2025

2030

Carbon dioxide

331

288

261

Methane

41

39

37

Nitrous oxide

19

18

18

HFCs

14.1

11.6

9.2

PFCs

1.6

1.6

1.6

SF6

0.3

0.3

0.3

NF3

0.0

0.0

0.0

TOTAL

406

358

328

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

15 Country: Latvia
Biomass deployment trajectory
15.1.1 Demand for biomass
Renewable energy sources account for on average 60% of the total energy mix for electricity generationin Latvia, and hydropower accounts on average 90% of the renewables share. Bioenergy has significantly
increased its share, reaching 570 GWh in solid biomass and 374 GWh in other bioenergy (biogas) in 2018.
Figure 15-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Latvia (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Primary solid biomass was the main source of heating production during the period 2004-2018, reaching
15,200 GWh in 2018. Biogas was used after 2011 but only to a limited extent (373 GWh in the bestyear).

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 15-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Latvia (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projections provided from the NECP considering the implementation of additional measuresindicate that, regarding electricity generation, the total share of renewables will increase significantly
by 2030, mainly due to wind production and potentially due to solar PVs (igure 15-3). The share ofbiomass is expected to decrease by 2030. Further, the renewables will contribute 58% for heatingproduction (Figure 15-4). Natural gas will be replaced by biomass and the use of solar collectors will be
increased.
igure 15-3 Projections of electricity supply in Latvia considering additional measures (GWh)

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 15-4 Projections of heating supply in Latvia considering additional measures (GWh)

Source: NECP
15.1.2 Supply of biomass
Regarding the supply of biomass, NECP mentions that the main solid biomass source is wood. It is also
noticed that using wood biomass from naturally afforested agricultural land where agricultural activity
was, suspended in 1980s and 1990s. Further, the total stock of living biomass in forest land iscontinuously growing since the living biomass in forest land and in afforested land is increasing due tocommercial logging and natural formation of deadwood.

Biomass policies and measures
15.2.1 Current policies
The current policies that are in action for the promotion of renewables are:

Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on
the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently
repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC (hereinafter — Directive 2009/28/EC)



Directive 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018
on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (recast version)19(hereinafter — Directive 2018/2001)

The is no further information mentioned in the NECP report about those directives and whether and inwhat extend they apply to bioenergy.
Some additional policy planning documents that are in force in Latvia related to energy and climatechange mitigation issues are:

SDSL2030: the main objectives are targets for GHG emission reduction, the share of RES
and energy intensity, as well as innovation goals for 2030.



NDPL2020: the main objectives are targets for the national GHG emission intensity, theshare of RES, energy consumption, and energy independence, as well as agricultural,
forestry, and waste management goals for 2020.

LTESL2030: the main objectives are optional and non-binding targets for the use of RES,
energy and energy sources, and the share of imports for 2030.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

15.2.2 Planned policies
The key actions that will be implemented to achieve the target scenario related to bioenergy are:
Strengthening the contribution of R&I to the achievement of energy and climate targets
and defining priorities for targeted investments: including the production and use ofbiomethane, hydrogen and modern biofuels, smart use of biomass before combustion, useof solar energy in transport, among other actions.

Comprehensive introduction and implementation of the ‘energy efficiency first’ principle:
considering, before approving industry planning, policy and investment decisions, whether
cost-efficient, technically, economically and environmentally sound alternative energy
efficiency measures



Review of Energy efficiency obligation scheme (EEOS) and strengthening and extension ofagreements on improving energy efficiency: evaluating the possibility of extending thescope of the EEOS to include as EEOS stakeholders traders (including motor and heating
fuel traders) whose sales account for a total of 90 % of energy sold to consumers in Latvia,
including thermal energy suppliers and suppliers of motor and heating fuel – transportenergy and natural gas.

Promote the use of RES and improvement of energy efficiency in LH and individual heating:the objectives are the improvement of energy efficiency of heating systems and shifting
the technology used to RES technologies. Also, it is proposed to ban the installation of new
combustion plants using only solid or liquid fossil fuels.

Promoting the use of energy sources alternative to petroleum products: the aim is to makea transition towards different alternative fuels, mainly electricity, biofuels (including
biomethane), CNG/LNG and hydrogen.

Increasing the volume of RES used in vehicles: the objective is to encourage the installationof biogas purification plants, to improve the infrastructure for biomethane use and topromote its consumption in public transport and commercial transport. Also, fuel suppliers
should continue to use first-generation biofuels.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
15.3.1 Historic impacts
Overall, the GHG fell in Latvia from 1990 to 2017, as Figure 15-5 indicates. LULUCF sector did notcontribute to the emissions, since the CO2 removals were bigger than the emissions from the sector.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 15-5 Historical GHG emissions in Latvia including LULUCF (2000-2017)39

Source: NECP
15.3.2 Estimated future impacts
According to the scenario with additional measures, it is expected that in 2030, Latvia would emit
7,462 ktCO2eq. Compared to the scenario with only the existing measures, this is a further reduction of
9%. The energy efficiency measures and the shift to biomass from fossil fuels will save around 148
ktCO2eq in industry by 2030. Further, the use of biogas (advanced biofuels) and biofuels (1st generation
and advanced biofuels) that is expected in the transportation sector combined with the electrificationof the sector will contribute to a reduction of 1,140 kt CO2 eq. by 2030.

39

No translation is provided for the legend in the NECP.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 15-6 Historical and projected GHG emissions for non-ETS in Latvia up to 2030 (ktCO2eq)

Source: NECP
In terms of energy mix for the final energy consumption, biomass will play a significant role (both solid andliquid) as

Figure 15-7 suggests.
Figure 15-7 Projection of the energy mix for the final energy consumption up to 2030 (PJ)

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16 Country: Lithuania
Biomass deployment trajectory
16.1.1 Demand for biomass
The total electricity production from renewable energy sources in Lithuania increased considerably
between 2000 to 2018 from 650 GWh to around 3,000 GWh (from a total of around 3,500 GWh from all
sources – Lithuania imports around 75% of its electricity). Hydropower remained around the same levelof production over time, with the main growth coming from wind energy and energy from biomass (solidor other). Electricity generation from bioenergy increased the last decade from only 69 GWh in 2008 to
543 GWh in 2018, of which 355 GWh was from primary solid biomass.
Figure 16-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Lithuania (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
In terms of heating production, Lithuania was mainly relied on solid biomass which was contentiously
increasing peaking at 13,530 GWh in 2017. Biogas and heat pumps played a marginal role in the heating
generation.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 16-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Lithuania (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The future projections about the contribution of renewables in the energy mix are positive. By 2030,
the share of renewables in the electricity production should increase to 45% while for heating andcooling purposes the respective figure is 67.2%.
Table 16-1 Projection of renewable sources shares in gross final electricity consumption and in gross final heatconsumption
Share of renewables (%)

2020

2022

2025

2027

2030

Electricity

21.3

25.6

31.5

36.7

45

Heating and cooling

50.9

53.9

63.1

66.9

67.2

Source: NECP
In more detail, the gross electricity consumption from renewables will climb from around 200 ktoe in2020 to 580 ktoe in 2030, with wind having the leading role in the growth, and to a lesser extent solar
PV and the bioenergies. Electricity from solid biomass is expected to double, from around 25 ktoe in2020 to 50 ktoe in 2030 (Figure 3-3). In the heating and cooling sector, heating from biomass is notexpected to change significantly over the next decade, but renewable heat from other sources is
expected to grow to around 10% of the total (Figure 3-4).

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 16-3 Projection of renewable energy generation-electricity (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

Figure 16-4 Projection of renewable energy generation-heating and cooling (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

16.1.2 Supply of biomass
The NECP outlines the expected changes in biomass (firewood and waste wood) demand for the heating
sector through to 2030, this shows only a small increase (<10%) in total heat production from thesefuels. The NECP notes that the market for biofuels in Lithuania is active with many small suppliers, andpolicies hope to keep these low market concentrations. The supply of biofuels is intended to besatisfied almost entirely from domestic production, with the expectation that there is sufficient
capacity and availability to increase this to meet demand, and any production increase would be in linewith sustainable forest management principle. It is also feasible to import cheaper fuels from122

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

neighbouring Belarus. The volume changes are not anticipated to have any significant effect on LULUCF
emissions.

Biomass policies and measures
16.2.1 Current policies
Lithuania has a set of policies and measures for the promotion of the renewable sources that are
already in action. In a nutshell, those most relevant to electricity and heat, and bioenergy include:

AEI1. Support scheme for electricity produced from RES (from 2019): this provides a pricepremium (via a technology neutral auction), priority transmissions and balancing exemptions
for small producers. It is intended to increase RES production by 2.5 TWh annually until 2025.



AEI2. Financial support for prosumers (EU support – from 2015): intends to increase RES-E
production by 0.075 TWh annual until 2024.



AEI3. Implementation of projects for co-generation plants using local and renewablesources of energy (waste) with priority to Vilnius and Kaunas: Intends an annual increase in
RES-E production of 0.4 TWh by 2023.



AEI17. Upgrade and/or replace worn biofuel boilers with other RES (2018-2030): Intends toreplace 600MW of installations.



AEI18. To promote use of biofuels for heat generation in district heating systems (20182023): improving incentive regulation to support companies to modernise. Targets 70MW
additional RES heat capacity.



AE22. Promotion of small-scale biofuel cogeneration (2019-2022): to promote 5MW
electrical / 20MW thermal capacity installation, providing around 0.03 TWh electricity per
year.
In addition the NECP highlights enabling measures to liberalise district heating markets and topromote the use of district heating in urban areas.

16.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies that Lithuania will implement related to the promotion of biomass and biofuels inelectricity and heating include:

AEI4. Financial support for investment in low-capacity power plants (from 2022-2025): thiswill provide financial support to renewable energy communities for investment in low capacity
power plants – technology neutral, selection via tender process. Goal to increase RES
production by 0.03 TWh annually.



AEI6. Industrial deployment of RES (70% electricity : 30% heat) (from 2021-2027): intends
to increase industrial RES capacity by 42MW. Focus on micro and small enterprises, but large
also eligible, up to 80% of expenditure can be funded.



AEI7. Use of RES in public and residential buildings (EU support)(from 2021-2030): Intends
an annual increase in RES capacity of 50MW through financial incentives.



AEI8. Financing of energy generation from RES and storage solutions, including prosumers(EU support) (from 2021-2027): EU funding to be used to support the installation of small
power plants by prosumers, energy communities, small businesses or individual consumers.
Intends to increase RES production by 0.81 TWh.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

AEI26. New biofuel combustion plants in district heating (2021-2030): Targets an additional
capacity of 70MW of biofuel boilers to be added to replace the remaining coal and gasoil
fuelled district heating systems.

Promotion of the use of environmentally and sustainably produced and supplied biofuels(use of certificates confirming best forest management practices for biofuel origin guarantees,
ensuring product quality and sustainability throughout the biofuel production and supply chain)In addition, supporting measures for network improvements, exemptions from excise duty, use ofguarantees of origin certificates and rules for RES purchase and sale contracts will also support theenvironment for RES electricity. Alternative measures that could be considered include green public
procurements requiring only green electricity. In the heat sector, boiler replacement, capture of waste
heat, and update of metering is also intended to boost efficiency and RES adoption.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
16.3.1 Estimated future impacts
In terms of GHG emissions, the implementation of the additional measures will result to a decreasing.
In Table 16-2 the impacts of the existing measures are presented in terms of GHG emissions until 2040.
Overall, if Lithuania follows this plan then total emissions (inc. LULUCF) between 2020 and 2030 will be
reduced by 14.5%.
Table 16-2 Projection of GHG emissions with planned policies and measures
Emissions
GHG emissions (kt CO2 eq.),incl. LULUCF
LULUCFGHG emissions (kt CO2 eq.),excl. LULUCF
Total CO2 emissions fromthe Energy sector (kt CO2)

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

15,40919,24218,009,16,456

16,502

16,060-5,296-4,663-4,114-3,936-4,003-4,38520,706

20,97918,47015,921

15,174

14,558

5,778

5,632

4,895

4,606

4,577

4,544

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

17 Country: Netherlands
Biomass deployment trajectory
17.1.1 Demand for biomass
The historical renewable energy mix of the Netherlands consists of primarily wind power, renewablewaste, and bioenergy. The share of solid biomass increased significantly up to 2010, followed by aconstant decrease up to 2018. The shares of other bioenergy (liquid biofuels, biogases and renewablewaste) on the other hand, increased up to 2005 and they fluctuated slightly over the next years up to
2018.
Figure 17-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in the Netherlands (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
With regard to the heating generation, an increase in renewable generation is recorded which was
mainly based on solid biomass. Biogas, heat pumps and MSW renewables contributed also significantly
to the total renewable energy mix.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 17-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in the Netherlands (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
Estimates in the NECP show that the renewable production will slightly change with the implementationof the additional measures compared to the trajectory including only existing measures. Further, nodetailed disaggregation between renewable sources is provided, with the exception of wind energy, as
indicated in Table 17-1. No projections regarding the share of biomass for heating purposes is provided.
Table 17-1 Netherlands’s ambitions for electricity generation in 2030
Renewable sources

Electricity generation (2030)

Offshore wind energy

49 TWhRenewable on land (>15 kW)

35 TWhOther renewable options (incl. CO2-free adjustable

Not quantified

capacity)Total

84 TWhSource: NECP
17.1.2 Supply of biomass
Limited information is provided in the NECP report regarding the supply of biomass. The importance ofthe biomass for reaching the sustainability goals of the country and that only renewable biomass should
be used towards that aim are highlighted. In terms of biofuel sources, it is mentioned that waste
products and residual waste are mainly used, and the projections estimate that the increased amountof biofuels in the future will come from renewable residual waste (including cascading), while no foodand livestock fodder will be used above the 2020 levels.

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Biomass policies and measures
17.2.1 Current policies
The only policy mentioned in the NECP report on bioenergy is the Renewable Energy Directive (RED),
which was launched in 2009, which has a sustainability framework applied to biofuel used for transport.
17.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies that are expected to enhance the use of bioenergy are:

Sustainable Energy Production Incentive Scheme-SDE++ (extension of SDE+): the scheme
will provide grants for renewable energy projects up to 2025. Among others, it aims to theincrease of production and use of sustainable advanced biofuels and renewable synthetic
fuels.

Developing a new framework for sustainable biomass: implementation of sustainability
criteria to be applied in all biomass and all applications.



Developing a roadmap to increase the domestic supply of sustainable biomass.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
17.3.1 Historic impacts
After 1996, GHG emissions were constantly decreasing, with a peak occurring in 2010 (due to a cold
winter). In 2018, the total emissions reached 189 mtCO2eq, which represent a decrease of 15%
compared to the 1990 figures. The decrease can be attributed among other to the phase out of coal andto increase of renewable sources for electricity generation.
Figure 17-3 Historical GHG emissions in the Netherlands excluding LULUCF (MtCO2eq)

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

17.3.2 Estimated future impacts
As mentioned in section 17.1.1, the impacts of the additional measures will not create a big differencein the results relative to existing measures. The renewable energy mix will see no significant difference
under the additional measures’ scenario. The projections suggest that by 2030 the share of renewablesin the energy mix will reach 25% (without the implementation of the Climate Agreement).
Figure 17-4 provides the estimates of the GHG emissions under the scenario including existingmeasures. In the 2020-2030period, overall emissions are expected to fall by 26 MtCO2eq, which leads toa decrease of 35% in 2030 compared to 1990. The electricity sector is expected to contributesignificantly to this trend, due to the increase of the renewable electricity production. The built
environment will see the biggest decrease in emissions due to energy-savings measures. Further,agriculture and mobility will save 2 MtCO2eq respectively between 2020 and 2030, while industry’s
emissions will remain relatively stable during the same period.
Figure 17-4 Historical and projected GHG emissions disaggregated by sector considering the existing measures
up to 2030 excluding LULUCF

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

18 Country: Poland
Biomass deployment trajectory
18.1.1 Demand for biomass
The renewable share has increased substantially during the last decade in Poland, as depicted in Figure18-1. In the beginning of 2000’s, hydropower was the main renewable source for electricity generation,
however the trend changed, with solid biomass and wind power leading after 2010. Nevertheless, solid
biomass share has decreased after 2012, whereas other bioenergy (liquid biofuels, biogases andrenewable municipal waste) was continuously increasing in share during the whole in-scope period.
Figure 18-1 Historical renewable share for electricity generation in Poland (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Heat production in Poland depends mainly on solid biomass, and marginally on biogas and heat pumps.
The share of biomass has also increased considerably from 65,000 GWh in 2004 to more than 60,000
GWh in 2018.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 18-2 Historical renewable share for heat generation in Poland (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projection for electricity generation provided by the NECP indicates that the renewable share willcontinue to increase, and especially for wind energy. No significant increase is expected for solid
biomass, yet biogas and renewable municipal waste (other bioenergy) is expected to rise from 149 ktoe
(1732.87 GWh) in 2020 to 538 ktoe (6256.94 GWh) in 2040. Regarding heating and cooling, Poland willcontinue to depend on solid biomass, increasing its share by 42%. Further, other bioenergy (biogas andrenewable municipal waste), heat pumps and solar will continue to develop the next 20 years.
Figure 18-3 Projection of renewable share for electricity generation in Poland considering the additional
measures (2020-2040)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 18-4 Projection of renewable share for heating and cooling consumption in Poland considering theadditional measures (2020-2040)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
18.1.2 Supply of biomass
NECP mentions that regarding forest biomass, Poland uses round or cleft wood, rootwood and wood
residues from forests and tree stands, as well as wood processing industry by-products. Whencalculating the GHG emissions, the emissions from forest biomass used for energy purposes were
included as part of the forest land category.
Poland can use approximately 13% of the domestic biomass for energy purposes without influencing thesoil or interrupting the food supply. The biomass stocks for energy use are estimated to be around
120,000 to 130,000 tonnes of dry matter, and orchard wood stocks are estimated to amount to ca.
88,700 tonnes annually. In terms of agricultural biogas, it is estimated that the energy potential
exceeds 7.8 billion m3 annually.
Regarding advanced biofuels, Poland cannot meet the targets set by RED (0.5% share of advanced
biofuels) due to limited access to ligno-cellulosic material and algae processing technologies and thelimited supply of waste raw materials.

Biomass policies and measures
18.2.1 Current policies
Poland’s NECP does not provide in detail the measures that are applied for the promotion of renewables
and subsequently of bioenergy. It mentions however that in order to enhance the growth of renewableenergy production has undertaken measures which include actions such as energy clusters, energy
cooperatives, an auction system for most of the key RES technologies, interim solutions for the green
certificate system, support for prosumers and a range of rules and conditions for conducting activity inthe field of electricity generation, agricultural biogas, heat and bioliquids, as well as instruments
intended to support them in a systemic fashion.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

18.2.2 Planned policies
The planned policies for the promotion of bioenergy in Poland are:

Role of particular RES technologies in the energy mix broken down to controllable and noncontrollable sources: energy from biomass will be well suited for households and forcogeneration purposes. Also, energy from biogas will be useful in combined electricity andheat generation.

Support for the production of electricity and heat from renewable energy sources and forthe production of biofuels: 150 million Euro will be allocated as part of the Operational
Programme Infrastructure and Environment 2014-2020. As part of Regional Operational
Programmes (ROPs) ca. EUR 890 million will be allocated, which includes ca. EUR 50 million
in the form of repayable instruments.

Support for innovative solutions in the production of 2nd generation biocomponents andother renewable fuels: it aims at promoting the use of biofuels and electricity in thetransport sector. The proposed forms of this support are as grants, subsidies and repayable
instruments.

Obtaining the confirmation of qualifications/competences of persons operating in thecommercial market: it is a regulation that enables persons operating on the commercial
market to confirm their qualifications/competence.



Amendments to legal regulations supporting the use of agricultural biomass for energy
purposes.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
18.3.1 Historic impacts
A decrease in GHG emissions was recorded from 1988 to 1990, yet slight fluctuations are noticed in theoverall period. Energy sector is the largest contributor, followed by agriculture and industry, with muchsmaller shares.
Figure 18-5 Historical GHG emissions in Poland (1998-2017)

Source: NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

18.3.2 Estimated future impacts
By applying the additional measures, Poland is expected to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions
significantly to 271 mtCO2eq in 2040, which represents a 33% decrease in emissions compared to the2005 figures. Energy sector will continue to contribute the most in terms of emissions, even though
they will decrease significantly by 2040.
Figure 18-6 Projection for GHG emissions in Poland up to 2040, excluding LULUCF, considering additional
measuresSource: NECP
In terms of the energy mix, it is projected that the share of renewables in the final gross demand willaccount for 23%. Specifically for biomass, the share in energy consumption is expected to decrease bothfor electricity and heating the next 20 years, reaching 11.5% and 75% respectively in 2040. However, inabsolute terms, the biomass consumption will increase in both cases.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

19 Country: Portugal
Biomass deployment trajectory
19.1.1 Demand for biomass
Historically the main renewable sources in Portugal for electricity production were hydropower andwind energy. The use of solid biomass increased considerably throughout the in-scope period, peaking
in 2017 with 2,573 GWh. Regarding heating production from renewables, Portugal relied mainly on solid
biomass for the entire period 2004-2018, while after 20014 heat pumps production increased
considerably. During the period 2010-2013 a steep decrease was recorded in all renewables, followedby an upward trend the next years.
Figure 19-1 Historical renewable mix for electricity generation in Portugal (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances

134Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 19-2 Historical renewable mix for heat generation in Portugal (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projections for electricity generation provided by the NECP show an increase in wind and solar
energy, while the use of biomass will remain relatively constant (Figure 19-3). Also, for heating
purposes the share of renewables will not increase significantly (Figure 19-4). With regards to theconsumption of biomass in the heating and cooling sector, it is expected to decrease slightly from 963
ktoe to 953 ktoe between 2020 and 2030.

Figure 19-3 Projection of electricity production up to 2030 in Portugal

Source: NECP

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Figure 19-4 Projection of heat and cooling production up to 2030 in Portugal

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
19.1.2 Supply of biomass
The NECP provides no information regarding the supply and sourcing of biomass and bioenergy in
general. In total, bioenergy demand will increase from 2986 ktoe in 2020 to 3961 in 2030 for theelectricity, heating and transport sector.

Biomass policies and measures
19.2.1 Current policies
Forestry biomass is considered as an important endogenous resource and therefore it isexpected to provide solutions that will create more value in the forestry sector.

Current measures include the decarbonisation of existing thermal consumption and promoting
energy efficiency through the promotion of installing small biomass power plants, which do notplace great pressure in terms of the availability of biomass and the energy system thereby
promoting the substitution of fossil fuels and decarbonising consumption in several sectors.

19.2.2 Planned policies


Promotion of the use of residual biomass derived from forestry and agricultural sources.



Support the establishment of crop areas for energy purposes using short rotation forestry
species.

Promoting and encouraging the use and penetration of renewable sources of energy,
particularly biomass and renewable gases.

Encouraging the substitution and use of heating and cooling systems that use renewablesources of energy, such as biomass boilers.



Supporting the dissemination of centres to collect and store biomass and make it available at amunicipal or inter-municipal level.

Stimulating the use and penetration of renewable energy sources, particularly biomass andbiofuels as an alternative source of energy to fossil fuels.

Phasing-out conventional biofuels.

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Impacts of planned policies and measures
19.3.1 Historic impacts
The historical emissions in Portugal increased up to 2005 compared to the 1990 levels, following by adecrease up to 2016. In 2017, the emissions were higher than the respective values in 2016.
Nevertheless, Portugal had complied with the Kyoto Protocol requirements overall.
Figure 19-5 Historical emissions in Portugal (1990-2017)

Source: NECP
19.3.2 Estimated future impacts
As a result of the planned measures, it is expected that the reduction of GHG emissions will beachieved quicker. It is foreseen that the electricity production with the planned measures implemented
would present potential GHG reduction of around 95% over 2005 in 2030 and 98% in 2040.
With regards to air quality, currently, it seems to be a persistent problem in Portugal in several
locations. However, as a result of policies geared towards GHG emission reduction, the reduction in air
pollutants is also predicted. Moreover, the planned decarbonisation strategies are also expected tocontribute to the generation of lower levels of air pollution. This is expected to have a positive impact
on human health, especially for those with respiratory diseases. On the contrary, the increasing
consumption of biomass to produce electricity will likely result in greater levels of emissions from nonmethane volatile compounds and fine particulates.
Concerning the renewable energy mix, it is expected to reach a share of 85-90% in final energy
consumption by 2050, and particularly for the sectors of electricity and transport.

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20 Country: Romania
Biomass deployment trajectory
20.1.1 Demand for biomass

The main renewable energy source for electricity generation in Romania was hydroenergy, following by windenergy in the last 8 years. Solar PV also developed the recent years, while solid biomass played a marginal rolein the overall energy mix, even though it has grown in absolute values compared to the 2000’s. For heatingproduction, solid biomass was almost exclusively the main renewable source throughout the years, showing adownward trend after 2010 (Figure 20-2).
Figure 20-1 Historical renewable mix for electricity generation in Romania (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Figure 20-2 Historical renewable mix for heat generation in Romania (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019138

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

The projection of the electricity consumption up to 2030 show a similar picture, with hydroenergy,
wind energy and solar PV being the main renewable sources (Figure 20-3). It is noteworthy that in the
projections of the NECP broken down per renewable technology, the biomass or in general the
bioenergy is not mentioned at all.
Figure 20-3 Projection of renewable mix for electricity consumption in Romania up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
Figure 20-4 Projection of renewable mix for heat and cooling consumption in Romania up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
20.1.2 Supply of biomass
The information that is provided by the Romanian NECP claims that the living biomass volume will
evolve by 2025 as shown in Figure 20-5. It consists mainly of stems, including maize cobs, and in 2017 it
was estimated between 21.5 and 35.8 million tonnes.

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Figure 20-5 Projection of the living biomass volume by 2025 (million cubic meters)

Source: NECP

Biomass policies and measures
20.2.1 Current policies
Programme for production of energy from renewable resources including biomass

Large Infrastructure Operational Programme (LIOP): promotes energy efficiency by increasing
the production of energy from less exploited renewable sources including biomass



Releasing of a certificate of origin for the biomass sourced in agriculture and relatedindustries, which is used as fuel or feedstock for production of electricity.

20.2.2 Planned policies


It is foreseen that a growing number of households will adopt efficient biomass heating
installations with full combustion and zero pollutants. This will result in using greener biomass
for heating.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
20.3.1 Historic impacts
The GHG emissions in Romania has shown a downward trend during the last 3 decades, from 248
MtCo2eq in 1990 to 92 MtCo2eq in 2017 (without considering the emissions from LULUCF). The energy
sector contributed the most on those emissions.
Figure 20-6 Historical GHG emissions in Romania with and without LULUCF (MtCo2eq)

Source: NECP

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20.3.2 Estimated future impacts
It is expected that lower gross electricity generation will take place by 2030 as a result of the planned
measures. The RES share in heating and cooling sector and the electricity sector is expected to increaseby 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively.
No consistent information is provided of the impacts of the measures on air quality, as the relevant
reports are not harmonised with the NECP, and also because there is no sufficiently developed versionof the NAPCP.

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21 Country: Slovakia
Biomass deployment trajectory
21.1.1 Demand for biomass
Historically, Slovakia used mainly hydroenergy for renewable electricity generation. During the lastyears, solar PV and wind also appeared in the energy mix, while solid biomass and other bioenergy(biogases and renewable waste) increased significantly in shares. More specifically, solid biomass picked
at 1,129 GWH in 2016 and bioenergy at 616 GWh in 2017.
For heating generation, solid biomass mainly contributed to the renewable production. Overall, an
upward trend was recorded, with an surge in 2017 from 7,400 GWh to more than 14,000 GWh in 2018.
Figure 21-1 Historical energy mix for electricity generation for Slovakia (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances

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Figure 21-2 Historical energy mix for heat generation for Slovakia (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projections provided from the NECP indicates that for electricity generation from renewables will
increase in a steady pace, however small increase is expected for solid biomass and other bioenergy(Figure 21-3). In the heating and cooling sector, It is expected that the share of renewable energy will
increase from 13% to 19% between 2021 and 2030 (Figure 21-4). The total investment costs to achieve
the RES targets are estimated at EUR 4.3 billion.
Figure 21-3 Projection of the renewable mix for electricity generation in Slovakia

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 21-4 Projection of the renewable mix for heating and cooling generation in Slovakia

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
21.1.2 Supply of biomass
The main sources of fuel wood biomass in Slovakia are forest land, agricultural land with forest growth
and residues from wood processing, furniture and pulp and paper industry. Forest land area increased
between 2000 and 2017 to 2.019 million ha.
Carbon stocks in living above-ground tree biomass rose from 166.3 to 187.6 million tonnes and in living
underground biomass from 36.1 to 40.5 million tonnes. Carbon stocks in dead biomass increased from35.7 to 39.4 million tonnes. It is argued that even if the supply of forest biomass would increase in theupcoming period, it would not have a negative impact on emission and capture balances to 2030.
The most important carbon storage in forest stands is living biomass, the amount of which depends onthe maintenance of or increase in the production capacity of the forests. With regard to the impact ofclimate change, it is also necessary to improve the age structure of the forests by gradually decreasing
the area of older stands with decreasing production capacity.

Biomass policies and measures
21.2.1 Current policies


Implementation of the European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme to stimulate theuse of biomass in the fuel mix of energy production, which is expected to have a high positive
impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

21.2.2 Planned policies

Environmental Strategy 2030: focuses on reducing the burning of coal and on removing
environmentally harmful subsidies for coal and biomass from unsustainable sources.



Replace electricity generation from fossil fuels and decarbonisation of electricity generation
through relying on renewable sources (including biomass) and nuclear plants.

In addition to these European level policies, at the national level it is anticipated to optimise
the district heating systems through the transition from fossil fuels to biomass.

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Impacts of planned policies and measures
21.3.1 Historic impacts
The historical GHG emissions are depicted in Figure 21-5. The CO2 emissions decreased by 45.2% in2016 compared to the 1990 levels, without considering the LULUCF. However, 2016 values were slightly
increased compared to those in 2015 as a result of increased economic output.
Figure 21-5 Historical GHG emissions in Gg

Source: NECP
21.3.2 Estimated future impacts
The adoption of measures to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions could significantly complement
existing and planned air quality measures, thus achieving a significant reduction in air pollution. As
Figure 21-6 suggests, the CO2 and CH4 emissions will continue to decrease the coming decades and are
expected to stabilise after 2035.
Figure 21-6 Projection of CO2 and CH4 emissions up to 2040 under the additional measures scenario (WAM)

Source: NECP

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22 Country: Slovenia
Biomass deployment trajectory
22.1.1 Demand for biomass
The renewable energy sources accounted for on average 28% of the total sources used for electricity
production in Slovenia during the period 2000-2018. The main renewable source was hydropower,
although the last years solar PV and bioenergy increased their share. The best year in terms ofrenewable electricity was 2014, while a considerable decrease is recorded in the next 4 years.
Figure 22-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Slovenia (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Heat in Slovenia according to Eurostat was generated mainly from solid biomass, with a considerable
increase in heat pumps being recorded after 2008. Solid biomass production showed a downward trend
the last three years, reaching 6,200 GWh in 2018.

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Figure 22-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Slovenia (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projection of the electricity generation from renewable sources shows that their share will befurther increased the next decade, reaching more than 600 ktoe (around 7000 GWh). The use of woodbiomass is expected to increase 2.7 times from 13 ktoe in 2020 to 35 ktoe in 2030 (or from 151 GWh to407 GWh). The values of biogas will slightly increase by 3 ktoe in the respective period.
Figure 22-3 Projection of the renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Slovenia with additional
measures (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
The projection about the future renewable energy mix for heating and cooling purposes suggests thatwood biomass will be the main source, with an average share of 71% in the period 2020-2030. Its share
however is expected to decline from 515 ktoe in 2020 to 387 ktoe in 2030 (or from 6000 GWh to 4500
GWh). The shares of the other renewables (i.e., solar PV, remaining renewable heat and energy fromthe environment) will increase, nevertheless the overall renewable share will decrease by 45 ktoe in
2030.

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Figure 22-4 Projection of the renewable energy mix for heating and cooling generation in Slovenia withadditional measures (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
As Figure 22-5 suggests, the overall biomass use will remain relatively stable the next decade, while thewood biomass consumption will decrease by around 80 ktoe from 2020 to 2030.
Figure 22-5 Projection for the development of wood biomass and total biomass use (2020-2030)

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP
22.1.2 Supply of biomass
Slovenia is mainly use wood biomass and wood biomass waste to cover its energy needs. The origin of
the stocks comes from Slovenia’s forests, which is an important energy source since it enhances thecountry’s energy independency, hence reducing imports. However, as the NECP indicates, theconsumption of wood biomass complies with the LULUCF objectives and does not reduce the sinks. The
future projections suggest that 3,800,000 m3 of lower quality wood will be logged, from which
2,200,000 m3 would be deciduous wood and 1,600,000 m3 would be conifer wood. The potential energy
generation from forest biomass is estimated at 6598 GWh of heat and 326 GWh of electricity. Also,148

Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

biomass was used in thermal power plants, reaching 96 kt in 2017, which is translated to 190 GWh ofthermal energy and up to 50 GWh of electricity.
Regarding biogas, 170 GWh in 2030 and 245 GWh in 2040 of electricity are expected to be produced(the respective number for 2017 was 127 GWh).

Biomass policies and measures
22.2.1 Current policies
The existing measures that Slovenia has set in action regarding the promotion of biomass are describedin Table 22-1.
Table 22-1 Existing measures promoting biomass40
Name of the measure

Type of the measure

Deadlines

Description
One of its activities is to

Support scheme for thepromotion of electricity
generation from RES andamend the rules for calls for
Economic measure

2020-2021

competition for the entry of
CHP plants into wood

CHP with high-efficiency

biomass.

Promoting the development

Encourages the developmentof DH systems on RES under
the Rural development

Regulatory measure

2020-2030

programme [PRP]of DH micro-systems on RES(wood biomass, geothermalenergy, surplus heat , etc.)
Reinforce support activities
that will increase theavailability of incentives toHousehold energy efficiency
aid scheme for vulnerable

the poorest households,
Economic measure2023

population groups

including through intensive,high-incentive, replacementof old combustion plants
with wood biomass andfossil resources
Raising awareness andInforming and raisingawareness of the target
publicInforming, raisingawareness measure

educating users of wood
2020-2030

biomass plants about theright fuel and proper way ofburning

Source: NECP
22.2.2 Planned policies
Table 22-2 provides an overview of the additional measures that Slovenia will set in action the next
decade, in order to promote the use of biomass up to 2030.

40

The mentioned measures include more activities targeting also other sectors, yet to stay within the scope of theassignment, only the applications to biomass are described.

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Table 22-2 Additional measures promoting biomass41
Name of the measure

Type of the measure

Deadlines

Description
Provide incentives for theUpgrading agricultural policy- integrating climate policy
and adapting to climate

collection of agricultural
Economic measure2022

changebiomass (crop residues,
slurry, etc.) at the locationsof major biogas plants,
among other targets.
Establish incentives in thenext financial period for theDevelopment and productionof cleaner energy sources

Economic measure2022

and alternative fuels

production of advanced
biofuels (liquid and gaseous)from biomass and synthetic
biofuels
Encourage the involvementof stakeholders to undertake

Providing conditions forfurther integration of

Economic, legislative

markets and construction of

measurejoint demonstration projects
2021-2030(‘Power2Gas’, biomass
gasification, energy storage,

necessary infrastructureadvanced system services,
etc.)

Source: NECP

Impacts of planned policies and measures
22.3.1 Historic impacts
The historical emissions of Slovenia are presented in Figure 22-6. In 2017 the country emitted morethan 17,000 ktCO2eq, which is reduced compared to 2005 emissions. The sector that contributes themost in the emissions is transportation with 32% share, followed by transformation sector (31%) andindustry (17%). The sinks from LULUCF accounted for 9% of the total emissions in 2017.

41

The mentioned measures include more activities targeting also other sectors, yet to stay within the scope of theassignment, only the applications to biomass are described.

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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

Figure 22-6 Historical GHG emissions in Slovenia in ktCO2eq (2005-2017)

Source: NECP
22.3.2 Estimated future impacts
Regarding the projection of the future emissions, in both scenarios (existing measures and additional
measures) they are expected to be lower; in the case of the implementation of existing measures thedecrease in 2030 compared to 2005 figures will be 18% while with the additional measures will be 36%.
For 2040, the respective numbers are 67% and 69%. Further, by implementing the additional measures
Slovenia will increase the final energy savings by almost 7 TWh in 2030.
Figure 22-7 Projection of GHG emissions in Slovenia in ktCO2eq with existing measures and NEPN (additional
measures) scenario (2020-2040)

Source: NECP

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23 Country: Spain
Biomass deployment trajectory
23.1.1 Demand for biomass
During the 2000-2018 period, the major renewable sources for electricity generation in Spain werehydroenergy and wind energy. Solar PV production has developed the recent years. Solid biomass andother bioenergy (biogases and renewable waste) played a marginal role in the total energy mix.
Regarding the heating production from renewables, Spain mainly used solid biomass, yet a considerable
increase was recorded after 2014 in heat pumps and solar thermal. The shares of solid biomass
fluctuated from 39,000 GWh to 49,000 GWh for the period 2004-2018.
Figure 23-1 Historical renewable mix for electricity generation in Spain (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances

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Figure 23-2 Historical renewable mix for heat generation in Spain (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
According to the projection in the NECP, Spain is expected to increase renewable electricity production
up to 2025, while in 2030 it is expected to decrease, as depicted in Figure 23-3. The share of otherbioenergy (i.e., biogas) will increase at a moderate pace. For heating and cooling, the NECP provides
only some indicative share of the renewables in the energy mix. It is expected that by implementing
the additional measures, the share will increase from 18% in 2020 to 31% in 2030.
Figure 23-3 Projection of renewable mix for electricity generation in Spain up to 2030

Source: Own analysis, based on NECP

23.1.2 Supply of biomass
The main source of biomass production is the forestry sector in Spain, and it is the sector where thegreatest developments are expected to occur in the heating and electricity sectors. An additional 1,600
ktoe and 411 ktoe is required every year for electricity generation and thermal uses, respectively.

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Biomass policies and measures
23.2.1 Current policies


Subsidies are put into place to support renewable energy sources for heating, cooling and offgrid electricity generation.

Financing programs continued which are managed by the IDEA of MITECO, which include
integrated actions to promote the use of renewable energies and to encourage energy savingsand the improvement of energy efficiency.

New minimum sales and consumption targets were established for biofuels in 2015: 4.3%, 5%,
6%, 7% and 8.5%, for the years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Promotion of energy from biomass with sustainability criteria and also economic aid measureslinked to biomass value chains.

Encouraging the use of woody pruning waste as biomass.



Creation of forest areas, as they serve as enormous carbon sinks.



Through applying particular management techniques of forest systems, the biomass storage
capacity can be increased.



The Renewable Energy Plan 2011-2020 set the target of achieving at least 20.8% of gross final
energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020 to make Spain carbon neutral in the longterm.

23.2.2 Planned policies
Spanish Forestry Plan 2002-2032: overall framework for forest policy, which has thefollowing objectives: promoting the protection of the territory and forests, increase carbon
sequestration in forest biomass to help mitigate climate change. The dedicated funding
amounts to EUR 241.412 billion between 2021 and 2030 and it aims to bring down total gross
GHG emissions from 319.3 MtO2-eq to 221.8 MtCO2-eq between 2020 and 2030.

Spanish Strategy for the Development of Energy Use from Forest Biomass: aims to promoteresidual forest biomass for energy purposes.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
23.3.1 Historic impacts
See next section for historical GHG emissions.
23.3.2 Estimated future impacts
According to the NECP, the measures provided will allow the following results to be achieved in 2030:
23% reduction in GHG emissions compared to 1990; 42% share of renewables in energy end-use; 39.5%
improvement in energy efficiency; 74% share of renewable energy in electricity generation.
Furthermore, the NECP’s economic opportunity is also emphasized as it is expected to have significant
social, economic, and public health benefits through improving air quality. The measures are expected
to prevent the premature death of around 2,400 people in Spain by 2030, a reduction of 27% comparedto the Baseline Scenario.

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Figure 23-4 Historical and projected emissions by sector (1990-2030)

Source: NECP

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24 Country: Sweden
Biomass deployment trajectory
24.1.1 Demand for biomass
Sweden had a particularly high share of renewable sources in the total energy mix, reaching on average
54% for the whole period. Hydropower held the lion’s share for the production of electricity generation,
followed by wind and bioenergy. Primary solid biomass increased significantly reaching from around
4,000 GWh in 2000 to more than 10,000 GWh in 2009; after that, it remained in relatively stable for thefollowing years. Other bioenergy (liquid biofuels, biogases and renewable waste) also increased
considerably during the in-scope period, from 128 GWh in 2000 to 1718 GWh in 2018.
Figure 24-1 Historical renewable energy mix for electricity generation in Sweden (2000-2018)

Source: Own analysis based on Eurostat energy balances
Heat generation from renewables was based on solid biomass, heat pumps and MSW renewables, while
all renewables presented an overall increasing trend during the period 2004-2018. Regarding solid
biomass, an increase was recorded from 79,000 GWh in 2004 to 89,000 GWh in 2018.

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Figure 24-2 Historical renewable energy mix for heat generation in Sweden (2004-2018) (GWh)

Source: Own elaboration based on Eurostat SHARES 2019
The projection of the renewable mix provided by the NECP report is based on a reference scenario,
namely “EU Reference Scenario”, which takes into account the existing policies. As depicted in Figure
24-3, renewables will account for 83% in 2030 and 97% in 2040 of the total energy mix. Bioenergy andsolar panel are expected to have a steep increase the coming 20 years. Regarding heating and cooling,
biofuels will increase in a moderate way, nevertheless they will continue to play the leading role in the
renewable production.
Figure 24-3 Projection for electricity generation and consumption from renewables in Sweden considering theexisting measures

Source: NECP
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Figure 24-4 Renewable energy, energy consumption and share of renewable energy in the heating and cooling
sector in Sweden considering the EU reference scenario

Source: NECP

24.1.2 Supply of biomass
The consumption of bioenergy is expected to increase in the following years, as Figure 24-5 indicates,
reaching 161 GWh in 2030. Bioenergy will account for 121 GWh in 2030 for heating and cooling, while
the consumption will remain stable for transportation between 2020 and 2030. Also, a small increase is
expected in the electricity sector, which is attributed to solid biofuels.
NECP states that Sweden imports most of the biofuels feedstocks, even though there is a large potential
in the country. The EU reference scenario, that the model is based on, does not provide any indication
regarding the source of solid biofuels, therefore there is no information about forestry feedstocks.

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Figure 24-5 Historical and projection of bioenergy consumption for electricity, heating and cooling andtransport sector disaggregated per biomass type according to the EU reference scenario

Source: NECP

Biomass policies and measures
24.2.1 Current policies
The policies that are in force in Sweden related to bioenergy are:


Reduction obligation – switching fuels: launched in 2018, it aims at the promotion of
biofuels by forcing the fuel suppliers to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of petrol anddiesel over their entire life-cycle by a certain percentage every year by gradually
increasing the amount of added biofuel.



Requirements for biofuels at filling stations – The Pump Act: launched in 2005, it obliges
the filling stations to with sales of over 1 500 m3 of petrol or diesel to offer at least one
type of renewable fuel.



Environmental information about fuels: launched in 2011, the fuel suppliers are obliged toprovide consumers with information about the environmental impact of the fuels at the
pump.



The 2014–2020 Rural Development Programme: includes investments for young
entrepreneurs, capacity building, cooperation and innovation, and support for organic
farming, environmental and climate measures, and animal welfare. The budget of thewhole program was SEK 36 billion, of which 59% is funded from Sweden and 41% by the EU.

Support for biogas from manure: launched in 2015, it aims at increasing the production of
biogas from manure, obtaining twice the environmental and climate benefits by reducing
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Analysis of Biomass in NECPs

methane emissions from manure and replacing fossil energy. The maximum support is SEK
0.40 per kWh of biogas produced.


Biogas support: launched in 2018 for production of biogas upgraded to vehicle gas (biofuel)which was not produced from sewage, sludge or landfill gas. The total support of SEK 100
million was paid in 2019.



Sweden’s National Forest Programme: launched in 2018, contains specific measures basedon the Forest Programme’s vision and objectives and must provide jobs and sustainablegrowth for the whole country and contribute to the development of a growing bioeconomy.

Klimatkliv: investment support initiative for local and regional measures to reduce
emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases which have an impact on the climate.

Some other initiatives related to the Research, Innovation and Competitiveness dimension are:

Efficient biofuels for low-carbon energy transition, forestry and bioenergy: the efforts arefocused among others to cultivation and extraction of biofuels, logistics, planning and fuelprocessing, with a focus on domestic biofuels from forests, arable land, waste, and marine
biomass

Research and demonstration in the transport sector: Sweden provides funding to number ofprograms and large-scale projects that cover the entire chain, from cultivation of raw
materials for bio-based motor fuels to the use of new fuels.

24.2.2 Planned policies
No decisions have been made regarding additional measures that might need to be taken in order tomeet the targets of 2045, as Sweden’s NECP suggests. Therefore, as mentioned previously, only theexisting measures have been taken into account and the projections made according to the EU
reference scenario.

Impacts of planned policies and measures
24.3.1 Historic impacts
GHG were reduced by 26% in Sweden since 1990, with the majority of the reduction occurring between
2003-2014. The total net uptake was 44 mtCO2eq in 2017, which represents the 83% of the total
emissions.

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Figure 24-6 Historical GHG emissions in Sweden (1990-2017)

Source: NECP
24.3.2 Estimated future impacts
As Figure 24-7 suggests, the emissions will continue to fall until 2040 but not in a significant rate, andnot to the extent that is required to meet the 2045 target (34%-41% lower emissions than 1990). That
implies that further measures need to be considered. Energy sector is contributing the most inemissions, followed by transportation and industry.

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Figure 24-7 Projection of GHG emissions in Sweden according to EU reference scenario up to 2040

Source: NECP

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