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Humanitarian
Policy Group

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Page 1Synthesis Paper
April 2009

Pastoralism andclimate change
Enabling adaptive capacity
The effects of climate change on the drylands of theHorn of Africa pose particular and difficult policy
challenges. The arid climate together with thepoverty faced by its inhabitants mean that thehigher temperatures, intensifying rains andincreasingly frequent extreme weather events thatclimate science projects for the region can only
exacerbate the problems of development. However,the drylands have under-exploited development
potential and the dominant land use system –pastoralism – has unique adaptive characteristics
that, together with the right enabling policies,
suggest that climate change can be adapted to, anddevelopment can be achieved.

This publication was funded by theEuropean Commission under ECHO,the Humanitarian Aid department.
Overseas Development Institute
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E-mail: hpg@odi.org.uk
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and www.odihpn.org

Overseas Development
Institute

The study on which this Synthesis Paper is basedargues that, of all the natural resource-based land
uses in the drylands, pastoralism functions best
within the prevalent context of wide rainfall
variability and unpredictability. With the rightpolicies, investment and support, pastoralism
presents a logical adaptation route in areas ofincreased climatic variability, and has an importantrole to play where other livelihoods are likely to fail.
However, pastoralists are increasingly vulnerable todrought and other shocks as a result of policies atodds with the unique needs of the drylands, andyears of poor and inadequate investment in thedevelopment of these areas. Pastoralists’ resilienceto drought and their adaptive capacity must be built
upon and supported. Evidence suggests that,alongside improved drought preparedness planning,disaster management structures and risk reduction
efforts, it would be more effective to enable andstrengthen the inherent adaptive capacity of
pastoralists, finding ways to encourage theirautonomous adaptation, rather than providing
adaptation strategies for them.

The untapped potential of thedrylands
East Africa’s drylands contribute significantly tonational economies and to food security. They also
possess considerable untapped opportunities. For
example:•Most of East Africa’s livestock wealth is kept by••

pastoralists in the drylands. The bulk of themeat, milk and other livestock products
consumed in the Horn of Africa come frompastoral areas in the drylands. Global demand
for meat and livestock products is rapidly
increasing.
National parks and other protected areas in theregion fall predominantly within the drylands(92% of Kenya’s protected areas are in pastoral
lands). Tourism brings in annual returns of
between $900 million and $1.2 billion to
Tanzania’s economy, and represents 13% of
Kenya’s GDP and over 9% of Uganda’s.
Grasslands store approximately 34% of the
global stock of CO2 – a service worth $7 perhectare. African grasslands extend to 13m
square kilometres and have vast carbon
sequestration potential.

Despite these considerable contributions, thedrylands receive very little investment. In turn, mostdryland populations lag far behind the rest of theworld in terms of human wellbeing anddevelopment indicators, and suffer from the poorest
economic conditions in the world. Yet withappropriate investment drylands need not be poor –as has been shown in Argentina, Mexico and Israel.

Pastoralism: a rational use of thedrylands
Pastoralism is a rational use of the drylands.
Pastoralists respond to and use, even choose andprofit from, variability. This allows for a vibrant andproductive livelihood system in some of theharshest landscapes in the world.
Pastoralists use mobility to respond quickly tofluctuations in resource availability, dictated by the
drylands’ scarce and unpredictable rainfall. They
also employ a number of highly specialised riskspreading strategies to safeguard their herds
against drought, floods, disease and social unrest.
These strategies – including building up herd sizes
as insurance against times of hardship, splitting
herds across different locations to spread risk,
keeping different species and breeds and loaning
surplus animals to family and friends – ensure theClimate Syn paper crc

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rational use of the natural resource base and also develop andstrengthen social relations as a form of social capital.

Box 1: Predicted increases in rainfall for theregion, but…

Pastoralism’s contribution to the health of dryland
ecosystems
Dryland ecosystems are healthier where mobile pastoralism
continues to be practiced effectively. Grazing opens up pastures,
stimulates vegetation growth, fertilises the soil and enhances its
water infiltration capacity as hoof action breaks up the soil crust, aids
in seed dispersal to maintain pasture diversity, prevents bushencroachment and enhances the cycling of nutrients through theecosystem. In many areas in East Africa, the effects of too-little
grazing can be clearly seen: bush encroachment has rendered large
areas of the drylands unusable as a result of reduced numbers ofgrazing animals due to drought or conflict.

Pastoralism’s contribution to national economies
The livestock sector represents 20% to 25% of agricultural GDP across
Africa, and a significant portion of African livestock is found in pastoral
areas. However, national accounts are incomplete. Examples of
economic contributions from pastoralism not captured in national
accounts include:••

The nyama choma (roast meat) industry in Tanzania, which isworth $2.2m annually.
In Ethiopia’s Somali region, it is estimated that the actual value ofcross-border livestock sales is three to six times that given in
official figures for the whole country. Pastoralist animals also
provide about 20% of draught power in Ethiopia, worth about$155m annually.

Pastoralism’s adaptive potential to climate change
The climate of the drylands is characterised by scarce and unreliable
rainfall. High temperatures ensure that much of what does fall is lostin evaporation, and intense downpours ensure that water runs off infloods. There are also substantial and unpredictable differences intotal rainfall between years, within years and between areas in one
year, so that neighbouring villages can experience very different crop
yields and harvest success.

The climate is changing
The climate of the Horn and East Africa is becoming more variable
and less predictable, and trends towards future changes are
emerging. Regional climate projections for East Africa over the next
40 years indicate that rainfall and rainfall intensity will increase,temperatures will rise, successive poor rains will become morecommon and the incidence of drought will increase. However, theseprojections are not as straightforward as they sound (see Box 1).

Downscaling climate projections
Downscaled climate projections, based on weather station data at
Lodwar, Mandera, Marsabit and Wajir in northern Kenya, have been
generated to obtain within-region information. Anticipated changes
include:••2

Significant increases in temperatures across months (in therange of +1.0–3.2˚C).
Increases in precipitation for most months. Agreement between
models was strongest for wet season months, suggesting that
there will be a general increase in wet season precipitation. Thismay be in the form of a longer wet season, or an increase inprecipitation intensity. Projections indicate that the intensity ofrainfall during the rainy season is expected to increase at all
stations.

Rainfall projections are not straightforward. Increased temperatures
are likely to offset increases in rainfall, and climate change impacts
will vary across different locations and at different times into the
future. Soil types and landscape topography varies across the region.
All of these factors will result in mosaics of climate change effects
across the region. This has important implications for economic
productivity and poverty reduction, and there is a need to better
understand the ranges of likely effects in different locations.

•

Changes in the onset and cessation of rainy seasons. However,
it is difficult to draw robust conclusions, and a supplementary
analysis using thresholds identifying that amount of rainfallthat constitutes the start and end of rains for pastoralist groups
would be useful.

Climate change and existing challenges facing the drylands
Climate alone is rarely the reason people fall into poverty; instead,
it interacts with existing problems and makes them worse. For
example, migration as a climate adaptation strategy increases
population pressure and environmental degradation. Failed rainyseasons will result in reduced agricultural yields in already highly
fragmented landscapes, and increased climatic shocks will fuelconflict over resources and access.

Managing the drylands to cope with climate changeWith increasingly uncertain climatic conditions, and different
impacts across the region, the drylands will need to be managed ina way that supports and promotes land uses that are more resilient
to climatic variability.
Of all the land uses in the drylands, pastoralism is best placed toadapt to increased climatic variability. Due to the advantage ofmobility, pastoralism is less susceptible to changes in climate thanmore sedentary land uses, such as crop agriculture, livestockranching and tourism. This in turn has implications for economic
development and poverty alleviation. Pastoralism is a resilient, lowinput land use option known to perform well in variable climates. It
therefore presents a less risky and more robust investment
opportunity because it has the potential to perform well whereother livelihoods are likely to fail.
African agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Significant
reductions are predicted in the length of crop and forage growing
periods across most of the Horn and East Africa (see Figure 1). This
holds true even where climate models predict increases in absolute
rainfall for the medium term, because increased evapotranspiration
due to temperature rise and foreshortened rainy seasons counteracts
the positive effects of increased rainfall. Up to 2030, most areas
where crops are produced are unlikely to undergo significant
changes, but over the longer term most areas where cultivation iscurrently taking place may experience moderate to severe reductionsin the length of the crop-growing period.

The consequences of ignoring the challenges facing
pastoralists
Increasing numbers of pastoralists are losing their livestock, forcing
many to leave livestock-rearing altogether. The combination ofincreased climatic shocks, policies which hinder mobile pastoralism
and a lack of other viable livelihood options is pushing more and more
pastoralists out of the system. Whereas climatic shocks are essentiallyClimate Syn paper crc

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Figure 1: Percentage of failed seasons, where growing periods will be insufficient
to support harvest1

adaptation actions have direct
relevance to pastoralists, andmobility is seen as adding to theclimate change challenge. NAPAs
need to be reviewed from theperspective of how prioritised
projects will contribute to pastoralists’ adaptive capacity.

Enabling autonomous
adaptation
Autonomous adaptation refers to
the measures taken by people atlocal levels to prepare for, copewith and recover from the effects
of increased climate variability
and climate change. Since climatechange impacts will vary acrosstime and space, resulting indifferent impacts across zones
and regions, it would therefore be
more effective and cost-effective
1 From P. K. Thornton et al., Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa, Report to the Department for
to enable and strengthen theInternational Development, ILRI, 2006.
inherent adaptive capacity of
pastoralists and find ways toencourage their autonomous adaptation, rather than providing
outside the realm of control, policies and the provision of livelihood
adaptations for them.
alternatives are not. Pastoralists’ inherent adaptive capacity, which
has enabled them to cope with climatic variability for centuries, isPopulation is set to increase, and a healthy pastoral system depends
increasingly being compromised by policies which aim to sedentariseon human and livestock numbers being commensurate. Pastoralists
and modernise their livelihood system, ignoring the vital need forneed the freedom to take action, whether they choose to remain in
mobility and resource access.
pastoralism or to diversify their livelihoods to ensure their economic
well-being. Failure to enable adaptive capacity is likely to result in a
As climate change exacerbates stresses on the system, the rate ofcontinuation of current trends towards increasing poverty and, in turn,destitution among pastoralists is likely to increase unless policies are
increasing reliance on outside assistance. Therefore, alongside
implemented which enable adaptation and a choice of livelihoods
improved drought preparedness planning, disaster management
which allows people to maintain or improve their conditions
structures and risk reduction efforts, autonomous adaptation must be
independently of livestock-keeping.
supported.
0–10%
10–20%
20–30%
30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
No season

Developing climate foresight to enable adaptation
The anticipated climatic changes in the drylands will require people
in the region to adapt, while the drastic nature of these changes
means that people may have to adapt to conditions beyond theirken. Adaptation usually occurs with regard to perceived changes in
the conditions of local environments, but climate change meansthat people have to adapt to what they do not necessarily perceive
as probable changes.
The state and development agencies have an important role to play,therefore, in facilitating what can be called ‘climate foresight’. Thismeans the ability to utilise climate projections – estimates of most
likely climate changes – in the planning of activities and investments
related to and affected by climate. In addition, local communities needto inform planning in the drylands, and therefore need to be equippedwith information on climate change and its implications on a localised
scale, as different communities will face different climatic effects indifferent places, and there is a need to understand what the ranges oflikely climate change effects are going to be in different locations.
The least developed countries of the region – Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Uganda and Tanzania – have prepared national adaptation plans ofaction (NAPAs) over the last four years. These identify and rank
immediate and urgent adaptation needs. In Eritrea and Ethiopia,
priorities for adaptation action relevant to pastoralists have been
identified. In Uganda and Tanzania, few of the prioritised

Three main areas of intervention to enable autonomous adaptation
have been identified:

1. GovernanceLand tenure and access rights. Recognising the need for pastoral
mobility and communal land tenure, and valuing the contributionsof customary institutions, will allow pastoral communities’ inherent
adaptive capacities to be expressed in order to cope effectively withincreasing and more extreme climatic variability.
Increased representation and involvement of pastoralist groups.
Strengthening pastoralist institutions’ level of engagement, andtheir capacity and ability to speak on their own behalf, is critical. A
skewed focus towards more ‘visible’ land users, such as farmers,
results in biases against other groups who have less capacity to
advocate for themselves. Climate change makes remedying thisstate of affairs more urgent.

2. Access to markets and enabling services
Infrastructure. Physical access is often a stumbling-block to market
participation in dryland areas. Improved road networks andincreased, more locally accessible livestock sales-points are needed.
The need for infrastructure is made more urgent by current and3

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anticipated changes in climate, as pastoralists have to be able to
make rapid decisions concerning the sale of their livestock.
Improved bargaining power and awareness of product value. The
better pastoralists are compensated for their products to reflect theirtrue value, the more incentive there is to participate effectively inmarkets. Improvements in product processing facilities, andincreased knowledge of other market opportunities such as those inwild harvested products, are also needed.
Credit. Access to credit in the drylands needs to be improved, andthe mechanisms of establishing credit need to be revised to suit theneeds of the drylands. The mechanism for accessing loans atpresent is not appropriate for pastoralist areas. It promotes land
fragmentation through the need for private tenure (for traceability),
and the establishment of permanent structures, which are often
required as collateral.
Insurance. Livestock insurance is important for pastoral development.
According to Mortimore et al.: ‘If assets are protected throughdroughts, investments can be cumulative, if not, then divestment infood emergencies frustrates growth’.2

and has done so for millennia, allowing pastoralists to transformseeming ‘wastelands’ into productive assets. This fact, along with thefact that it is a low-input system with well-established traditional
management institutions, makes pastoralism a practical and costeffective land use option in the drylands. Supporting effective
pastoralism will allow nations to make the most of areas receiving low
and unpredictable rainfall, and hedge against the potential failure ofother land uses which may not be as flexible in the face of increasingly
variable climate. It will also enable East African governments tobenefit from the global rise in demand for meat and other livestock
products.
Policy recommendations for enabling climate adaptation include:•••
Cash or asset-based assistance. Cash and asset-based assistanceallows pastoral communities to autonomously adapt and lessens
their dependence on food aid. It is cheaper for the state to provide
this type of assistance than to provide emergency relief ex-post.
Distributing cash to allow families to restock themselves is also
cheaper than supplying animals, and is more effective as it allows
households to make decisions according to their needs. This isparticularly relevant in the context of changing climate, as some of
the adaptation strategies among pastoralists include a shift in
breed and type of livestock preference. As communities are best
able to determine their priorities given environmental conditions,the option which allows flexibility in timing and type of purchase ismore suitable.

3. Basic services – skills and education
Skills and education will increase adaptive capacity to climatechange and options for diversification. They can also open up
opportunities to sustain livelihoods which do not depend on thenatural resource base. As climatic conditions become more severe,
education allows pastoralists the freedom to supplement livestockkeeping with other livelihood options which may not be affected byextreme drought or flooding.

•

•

•

•

•
If these services are to be made more widely effective, improvementsin the quality and accessibility of education are necessary. Education
should not compromise mobility, but rather accommodate it so that
one does not occur to the detriment of the other.

Conclusions and recommendations
Climate is set to become increasingly unpredictable and variable, andprojected increases in temperature, shifts in rainy seasons andintense rains over much of East Africa will result in a variety ofchanging climate conditions, with serious implications for land use.
By its very nature, mobile pastoralism adapts to climatic variability,
2 M. Mortimore et al., Drylands – An Economic Asset for Rural Livelihoods
and Economic Growth, Draft Report for the Dryland Challenge Paper
Series of the Global Drylands Imperative, UNDP/DDC, 2008.

4

•

•

•

•

The adaptive capacity of pastoralism and of different pastoralist
groups to climate needs to be better understood and recognised.
The external factors that hinder the expression of adaptive
capacity need to be identified and removed.
Climate foresight must be integrated into planning for
pastoralist development. Better awareness of how to accessand use climate projections is required at different levels ofplanning and implementation.
Full socio-economic costs and benefits estimates should be
calculated for different adaptation strategies involving
pastoralists. The costs and benefits should consider livelihoods,
ecosystems and wider economic contributions.
The returns – in terms of enhanced adaptive capacity – on
investments in pastoralism for income generation (through better
market access), human and animal health, education andinformation provision, and empowerment of local adaptive
decision-making, need to be assessed and factored into
adaptation policy development.
The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) for
Tanzania, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan need to be reviewed toassess how prioritised projects will contribute to pastoralist
adaptive capacity. The learning from these exercises should be fed
into the planning of the Kenya National Adaptation Plan and intodevelopments arising from the Kenyan Climate Bill.
Climate adaptation should be mainstreamed into dryland plans
and strategies at national and local/district level and at sectorallevels, including disaster risk reduction, livestock development
and agriculture.
There should be a focus on water management at national,
regional and local levels to reduce risks from flooding and capture
rainfall for agricultural, livestock and ecosystem use, through amix of micro- and larger-scale investments.
Access of pastoralists and other dryland dwellers to markets forcarbon finance, such as the CDM and Forest Carbon Finance
Facility, should be improved.
Successful pilot community-based adaptation projects withpastoralists and other vulnerable dryland communities should
be scaled up, to ensure the documentation and rapid
replication of these activities across communities.
Action research is required to build and share knowledge on
climate adaptation by pastoralists and to share and disseminate
learning to key regional and national institutions.
Regional cooperation must be advanced to help scale up
successful initiatives and address pastoral development
issues.
Effective public information campaigns are needed to help
people understand and respond to the climate change
challenges faced in different regions and districts.