CoP17 Prop. 16

Include all populations of African Elephant Loxodonta africana in Appendix I
through the transfer from Appendix II to Appendix I of the populations of Botswana,Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe
Proponents: Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya,Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sri Lanka and Uganda
Note: See Background to the African Elephant proposals for a history of the African Elephant under CITES.
Summary: This proposal applies only to the African Elephant population of four contiguous southern Africancountries: Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The most comprehensive and reliable
information on African Elephant distribution and population is contained in the African Elephant Database(AED), maintained by the IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group 1. This gives the combined area ofdistribution of the species in the four countries considered here as ca.350,000km2 1 The most recent
population data available in the AED are from the end of 2013. These along with figures from 2002 and 2006
are presented here divided into ‘definite’, ‘probable’, ‘possible’ and ‘speculative’ (not all categories are usedin all range States). The database is being updated with the most recent data available, and a full version will
be available at CoP17. Permission has been granted to use in the IUCN/TRAFFIC Analyses of Proposals themost recent figures from Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe (more recent figures for Namibia
and Zimbabwe are also presented in the Supporting Statements for Proposals 14 and 15 respectively).
Because of differences in survey techniques and extent of coverage, figures for different years are not strictlycomparable. The most recent data are presented in the form in which they have been submitted to the AED.
Botswana:

2002 – 100,629 definite; 21,237 probable and 21,237 possible;
2006 – 133,829 definite, 20,829 probable and 20,829 possible;
2013 – 133,453 definite, 20,818 probable and 20,818 possible (all provisional estimates);

Namibia:

2002 – 7769 definite, 1872 probable and 1872 possible;
2006 – 12,531 definite, 3276 probable and 3296 possible;
2013 – 13,684 definite, 2871 probable and 2891 possible (all provisional estimates);South Africa: 2002 – 14,071 definite and 855 possible;
2006 – 17,847 definite, 638 possible and 22 speculative;
2013 – 20,260 definite and 4767 possible (provisional estimates);
Zimbabwe:

2002 – 81,555 definite, 7039 probable, 7373 possible and 291 speculative;
2006 – 84,416 definite, 7033 probable, 7367 possible and 291 speculative;
2013 – 67,954 definite, 6974 probable, 6974 possible and 14,730 speculative (allprovisional estimates).

More recent information is as follows:
Survey Area
Botswana
Northern Botswana
Greater Mapungubwe Trans- frontier
Conservation Area
Namibia
Etosha National Park
Khaudum National Park & Neighbouring
Conservancies
KuneneMangetti Game Reserve
Zambezi Region
South Africa
Hluhluwe Imfolozi Game Reserve*
Ithala Game Reserve*
St. Lucia Reserves*

Year

EstimateSource

2016
2014

129,939 +/-12,514890

Chase et al., 2015
Selier & Page, 2014

2015
2015

2,911 +/- 697
6,413 +/- 2,566

Kilian, 2015
Gibson & Craig, 2015a

2011
2014

314 +/- 15467

2015

13,136 +/- 3435

MET, 2012
F. Weiss, pers.
comm., 2014
Gibson & Craig, 2015b2015
2015
2015

700162110

EKZNW, 2016
EKZNW, 2016
EKZNW, 2016

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CoP17 Prop. 16Survey Area
Tembe Elephant Park*uMkhuze Game Reserve*
Marakele National Park
Addo Elephant National Park
Kruger National Park
Great Fish River Provincial Reserve*

Year
2015
2015
2012
2012
2015
2015

Estimate
220-23090
171
595
17,086
2

Kariega Private Game Reserve*

2015

41

Knysna Forest*

2015

2

Kwandwe Private Game Reserve*

2015

57

Atherstone Provincial Nature Reserve*

2015

105

Madikwe Provincial Reserve*

2015

1006

Pilanesberg Provincial Reserve*

2015

240

Balule, Timbavati Umbabat and Klaserie*

2015

2772

Letaba Provincial Nature Reserve*

2015

621

Makuya National Park*

2015

9Maremani*

2015

64

Mthetomusha Provincial Reserve*

2015

57

Songimvelo Game Reserve*

2015

105

Other Private Reserves*

2015

2482

Manyeleti Game Reserve
Mapungubwe Ecosystem
Zimbabwe
Gonarezhou and SVC

2009
2014

222347

2014

11,120 +/-2,753

SourceEKZNW, 2016
EKZNW, 2016
Ferreira et al., 2012
Ferreira et al., 2012
Ferreira et al., 2015
J. Selier, pers. comm.,
2016
J. Selier, pers. comm.,
2016
J. Selier, pers. comm.,
2016
J. Selier, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
M. Garai, pers. comm.,
2016
SANParks, 2009
Selier & Page, 2014
Dunham & van derWesthuizen, 2015
Selier & Page, 2014

Greater Mapungubwe Trans- frontier
2014
212
Conservation Area
Dunham et al., 2015a
Northwest Matabeleland
2014
53,991 +/-7,711
Dunham et al., 2015b
Sebungwe
2014
3,407 +/- 1,215
Various Areas
2014
2,143
Dunham, 2015
Dunham et al., 2015c
Zambezi Valley2014
11,657 +/-2,259*Due to the absence of a detailed report (with methodology), these estimates have been entered as informedguesses, which carry less weight than data from systematic survey efforts
CoP17 Doc. 57.5 (Report on Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE)) contains the most up-to-date
synthesised information on illegal killing of elephants, based on information from 2003 until the end of 2015.
It reports on the proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE) at 58 sites in 30 countries in Africa and 27 sites
in 13 countries in Asia. A PIKE level of 0.5 or lower is generally considered sustainable. In its analysis of
sub-regional trends in Africa, the report observes (para 14) that the southern African sub-region (Angola,Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe) is the only one of
the four African subregions where the estimated PIKE has not exceeded the 0.5 level in the period 2003 to2015.
The Supporting Statement of the proposal deals extensively with the wider African Elephant population,
which is not the subject of the amendment proposal. It draws attention to the high levels of illegal killing ofelephants that have been recorded (chiefly through the MIKE programme) in many parts of the range since2

CoP17 Prop. 162006 (see Doc. CoP17 57.5), associated with elevated levels of illegal trade in ivory recorded from 2008
onwards, as indicated by seizure data contained in the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) (seeCoP17 Doc. 57.6). The proponents argue that transferring the Appendix-II African Elephant population toAppendix I will indicate that the CITES Parties do not intend to allow commercial trade in ivory in the future,and that this will serve as a disincentive for the illegal killing of elephants, thereby enhancing theconservation status of this species in its range as a whole, and also benefitting the Appendix-I listed Asian
Elephant Elephas maximus.
Analysis: Regarding the impact of this proposal on elephant populations elsewhere, there is no provision toaddress this question in any guidelines or criteria under the Convention and it will therefore not be
considered further here.
The African Elephant population of Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe does not appear tomeet the biological criteria for inclusion in Appendix I set out in Res. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16). It does nothave a restricted range, nor is its population small or undergoing a marked decline.
Annex 3 of Res. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16) states that listing of a species in more than one Appendix should
be avoided in general in view of the enforcement problems it creates. It adds that if split-listing does occur,
this should generally be on the basis of national or regional populations, rather than subspecies.
Sources for population estimates:
Botswana
Chase, M., Schlossberg, S., Landen, K., Sutcliffe, R., Seonyatseng, E., Keitsile, A., & Flyman, M. (2015). Dry
season aerial survey of elephants and wildlife in northern Botswana: July – October 2014.
Elephants Without Borders, the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (Botswana), Great
Elephant Census.
Selier, J., & Page, B. (2014). Dry season fixed-wing aerial survey of large mammals in the Northern TuliGame Reserve and Mapungubwe National Park and of elephants in the Greater Mapungubwe
Transfrontier Conservation Area, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe, August 2014. Central
Limpopo River Valley Elephant Research Project and the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Namibia
Gibson, D. S. C., & Craig, G. C. (2015a). Aerial Survey of Elephants & Other Wildlife in Khaudum
National Park & Neighboring Conservancies: October 2015. Ministry of Environment &Tourism, Namibia.
Gibson, D. S. C., & Craig, G. C. (2015b). Aerial Survey of Elephants and Other Wildlife in Zambezi
Region September/October 2015. WWF.
Kilian, J.W. (2015). Aerial Survey of Etosha National Park. Internal Report to the Ministry ofEnvironment and Tourism: September 2015.
Ministry of Environment and Tourism. (2012). Countrywide survey of Elephants in Namibia. Namibia:
Ministry of Environment and Tourism.
Weiss, F. (2014). Personal Communication: Information on the elephants of Mangetti. E-mail to C.
Thouless, 11 August 2014.
South Africa
EKZNW. (2016). Personal communication from Pete Ruinard. E-mail to H. Dublin, 28 April 2016.
Ferreira, S., Greaver, C., & Simms, C. (2015). Elephant Management Update (02/2015): Elephant survey ofthe Kruger National Park. South African National Parks.
Ferreira, S., Pienaar, D., Freitag-Ronaldson, S. and Magome, H. (2012). An update on managing theeffects of elephants in National Parks. Skukuza, South Africa: South Africa National Parks.

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CoP17 Prop. 16Garai, M. (2016). Personal Communication: ESAG DATABASE Update 2015/2016: Compiled by Marion E.
Garai. E-mail to T. Daniel, 17 May 2016.
SANParks (2009). Elephant estimates in Addo Elephant, Kruger, Marakele, and Mapungubwe National
Parks, 2005-2009. Pretoria, South Africa: SANParks.
Selier, J. (2016). Personal communication: Information on elephant populations in South Africa. Email to T.
Daniel. 25 May 2016.
Selier, J., & Page, B. (2014). Dry season fixed-wing aerial survey of large mammals in the Northern TuliGame Reserve and Mapungubwe National Park and of elephants in the Greater Mapungubwe
Transfrontier Conservation Area, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe, August 2014. CentralLimpopo River Valley Elephant Research Project and the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Zimbabwe
Dunham, K. C. (2015). National Summary of Aerial Survey Results for Elephant in Zimbabwe:2014. Harare, Zimbabwe: Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. M., Mackie, C. S., Nyaguse, G., & Zhuwau, C. (2015a). Aerial Survey of Elephantsand other Large Herbivores in north-west Matabeleland (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare,Zimbabwe: Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. C., Mackie, C. S., Nyaguse, G., & Zhuwau, C. (2015b). Aerial Survey of Elephantsand other Large Herbivores in the Sebungwe (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare, Zimbabwe:
Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. M., Mackie, C. S., & Nyaguse, G. (2015c). Aerial Survey of Elephants and otherLarge Herbivores in the Zambezi Valley (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare, Zimbabwe.
Dunham, K. M., & van der Westhuizen, H. F. (2015). Aerial Survey of Elephants and other
Large Herbivores in Gonarezhou National Park and Save Valley Conservancy(Zimbabwe): 2014. Frankfurt Zoological Society.
Selier, J., & Page, B. (2014). Dry season fixed-wing aerial survey of large mammals in the
Northern Tuli Game Reserve and Mapungubwe National Park and of elephants in the
Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area, Botswana, South Africa andZimbabwe, August 2014. Central Limpopo River Valley Elephant Research Project andthe University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Reviewers: D. Skinner and T. Milliken.
References:Information not referenced in the Summary section is from the Supporting Statement.
1 IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group (2013) Continental Totals Provisional African Elephant Population

Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013. http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa.
Viewed on 5th July 2016.

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