CoP17 Prop. 15

Amend the present Appendix-II listing of the population of Zimbabwe of African
Elephant Loxodonta africana by removing the annotation in order to achieve anunqualified Appendix II listing
Proponents: Namibia and Zimbabwe
Note: See Background to the African Elephant proposals for a history of the African Elephant under CITES.
Summary: The Zimbabwean population of the African Elephant Loxodonta africana was transferred fromAppendix I to Appendix II in 1997; it is currently covered by annotation 6. The proponents (Namibia andZimbabwe) seek to achieve an unqualified Appendix-II listing of the Zimbabwean African Elephantpopulation, arguing that effective and sustainable conservation of Zimbabwe's elephants is dependent onestablishing regular open market sales of elephant ivory to fund management and enforcement actions.
The most comprehensive and reliable information on African Elephant distribution and population iscontained in the African Elephant Database (AED), maintained by the IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist
Group1. The 2013 version gives the range as just under 77,000km 2 1 (the Supporting Statement indicatesthat the four main elephant populations have a combined range of ca. 63,000km2). The most recent
population data available in the AED are from the end of 2013. These along with figures from 2002 and 2006
are presented here divided into ‘definite’, ‘probable’, ‘possible’ and ‘speculative’. The database is being
updated with the most recent data available, and a full version will be available at CoP17. Permission has
been granted for use in the IUCN/TRAFFIC Analyses of Proposals the most recent figures from Zimbabwe.
Because of differences in survey techniques and extent of coverage, figures for different years are not strictlycomparable. The most recent data are presented in the form in which they have been submitted to the AED
and therefore a total estimate is not given.
Data for Zimbabwe’s population of elephants from the African Elephant Database1 are:2002 – 81,555 definite, 7039 probable, 7373 possible and 291 speculative;
2006 – 84,416 definite, 7033 probable, 7367 possible and 291 speculative;
2013 – 67,954 definite, 6974 probable, 6974 possible and 14,730 speculative (all provisionalestimates);More recent data are:Survey Area
Gonarezhou and SVC

Year
2014

Estimate
11,120 +/-2753

Greater Mapungubwe Trans- frontier
Conservation Area
Northwest Matabeleland
Sebungwe
Various Areas
Zambezi Valley

2014

212

SourceDunham & van derWesthuizen, 2015
Selier & Page, 2014

2014
2014
2014
2014

53,991 +/-7711
3407 +/- 1215
2143
11,657 +/-2259

Dunham et al., 2015aDunham et al., 2015b
Dunham, 2015
Dunham et al., 2015c

The Supporting Statement provides a 2014 estimate of 80,507.
The Supporting Statement indicates that Zimbabwe adopts an experimental, rather than programmatic,
adaptive management approach towards its elephants, involving a devolutionary policy that allows its
primary stakeholders (those with wildlife on their land) to experiment with elephant management. It alludes toa method of quota setting for elephants based on monitoring of mean tusk weight of trophies which takes
into account the long response time of elephant populations to any change in their management regime.
The Supporting Statement includes an analysis of legal ivory trade from Zimbabwe for 1980 to 2014, asreported in the CITES Trade Database, noting discrepancies between import and export data and showingthat recorded annual exports for 2012 and 2013 exceeded 20t, the first time this has occurred since 1990.

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CoP17 Prop. 15
The Supporting Statement indicates that the average mortality due to illegal hunting is 4.5% of the total
population noting that the populations in two of the main areas of elephant distribution in the country areincreasing while in two others they are declining rapidly towards extinction.
CoP17 Doc. 57.5 (Report on Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE)) contains the most up-to-date
synthesised information on illegal killing of elephants, based on information from 2003 until the end of 2015.
It reports on the proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE) at 58 sites in 30 countries in Africa and 27 sites
in 13 countries in Asia. A PIKE of 0.5 or lower is generally considered sustainable. In its analysis of subregional trends in Africa, the report observes (para 14) that the southern African sub-region (Angola,Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe) is the only one of
the four African sub-regions where the estimated PIKE has not exceeded the 0.5 level in the period 2003 to2015. MIKE data are usually not considered meaningful at national level because of small sample sizes 2.
The Supporting Statement cites an estimate of 439t of ivory illegally traded in the period 2002 to 2014 inZimbabwe, compared with legal ivory production of 180t and trophy hunting of 74t in the same period.
The annex to CoP17 Doc. 57.5 presents an analysis of illegal ivory trade, based on data in ETIS. Part of thisis a cluster analysis of 55 countries or territories divided into 13 groups with similar characteristics.
Zimbabwe forms part of group eight, along with Botswana and Namibia. The report’s analysis of this group isas follows:“As in the CoP16 analysis, three of the four African Elephant range States whose elephantpopulations were transferred to Appendix II in 1997 fall in the same group. These countries regularly
report data to ETIS. In terms of all data which implicate these countries in an ivory seizure, thissouthern African grouping reflects middle range values in terms of mean number of seizures and themean weight of ivory seized. The measure for assessing the presence of organised crime stands atzero which is indisputably a good sign. Governance indicators are mixed, however, with the rule oflaw score problematic and suggesting the presence of corruption, but the relatively high law
enforcement ratio partially mitigates that concern. Indeed, as before, Zimbabwe is the country thatpulls the rule of law score down, indicating far greater governance challenges exist in that country,
but it is worth noting that Namibia’s scores have also dropped too. The domestic ivory market scoreis low, reflecting the complete absence of a market in Botswana and a very low level of trade inNamibia. Again, Zimbabwe is the exception with the tenth largest ivory market of any country in thisanalysis.”
The proponents argue that paragraph h) of annotation 6, which states that no proposals to allow trade inelephant ivory from populations already in Appendix II shall be submitted before nine years after the sale ofivory (which took place in November 2008) cannot override the right of Parties under the Convention tosubmit an amendment proposal at any time.
Analysis: The Zimbabwean population of African Elephant was transferred from Appendix I to Appendix II,
under a series of constraints set out in an annotation (6). Acceptance of the current proposal would delete
this annotation as it refers to Zimbabwe. There are no explicit guidelines in Res. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16) as
to how to deal with a proposal to amend or delete an annotation for an Appendix-II listed species. However,these constraints can be interpreted as special measures under the terms of the precautionary measures inAnnex 4 of Res. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16). It would be appropriate to examine whether these precautionary
measures are still met under the proposed change.
The Zimbabwean African Elephant population does not have a restricted range, is not small, and is notundergoing a marked decline. It does not therefore appear to meet the biological criteria for inclusion in
Appendix I set out in Annex 1 of Res. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16).
Although reference is made to a possible quota-setting method, no specific export quota or other special
measure is proposed in the Supporting Statement. Under the precautionary measures set out in Annex 4 ofRes. Conf. 9.24 (Rev. CoP16), Parties would therefore need to be satisfied that Zimbabwe is implementing
the requirements of the Convention, particularly Article IV, and that appropriate enforcement controls andcompliance with the requirements of the Convention are in place.
The Supporting Statement indicates that Zimbabwe adopts an experimental, adaptive approach tomanagement of its African Elephants. It is not possible to determine a priori if such an approach would be2

CoP17 Prop. 15
effective in implementing Article IV if this proposal were accepted. Regarding enforcement controls andcompliance, the Supporting statement itself, as well as analysis from ETIS in the annex to CoP17 Doc. 57.5
indicates that this may be problematic in some areas. It is likely that in this case the precautionary measures
may not be met.
Sources for population estimates:
Dunham, K. C. (2015). National Summary of Aerial Survey Results for Elephant in Zimbabwe:2014. Harare, Zimbabwe: Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. M., Mackie, C. S., Nyaguse, G., & Zhuwau, C. (2015a). Aerial Survey of Elephantsand other Large Herbivores in north-west Matabeleland (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare,Zimbabwe: Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. C., Mackie, C. S., Nyaguse, G., & Zhuwau, C. (2015b). Aerial Survey of Elephantsand other Large Herbivores in the Sebungwe (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare, Zimbabwe:
Parks and Wild Life Management Authority.
Dunham, K. M., Mackie, C. S., & Nyaguse, G. (2015c). Aerial Survey of Elephants and otherLarge Herbivores in the Zambezi Valley (Zimbabwe): 2014. Harare, Zimbabwe.
Dunham, K. M., & van der Westhuizen, H. F. (2015). Aerial Survey of Elephants and other
Large Herbivores in Gonarezhou National Park and Save Valley Conservancy(Zimbabwe): 2014. Frankfurt Zoological Society.
Selier, J., & Page, B. (2014). Dry season fixed-wing aerial survey of large mammals in the
Northern Tuli Game Reserve and Mapungubwe National Park and of elephants in the
Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area, Botswana, South Africa andZimbabwe, August 2014. Central Limpopo River Valley Elephant Research Project andthe University of KwaZulu-Natal.
Reviewers: D. Skinner and T. Milliken.
References:Information not referenced in the Summary section is from the Supporting Statement.
1 IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group (2013) Continental Totals Provisional African Elephant Population

Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013. http://www.elephantdatabase.org/preview_report/2013_africa_final/2013/Africa.
Viewed on 5th July 2016.
2 Skinner, D. (2016) In litt. to IUCN/TRAFFIC Analyses Team, Cambridge, UK.

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