Voice of the Publisher, 2018, 4, 51-59
http://www.scirp.org/journal/vp
ISSN Online: 2380-7598
ISSN Print: 2380-7571

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or
Natural Global Warming (NGM)
Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden

How to cite this paper: Mörner, N.-A.
(2018) Anthropogenic Global Warming(AGW) or Natural Global Warming(NGM). Voice of the Publisher, 4, 51-59.
https://doi.org/10.4236/vp.2018.44005
Received: September 20, 2018
Accepted: October 15, 2018
Published: October 18, 2018
Copyright © 2018 by author andScientific Research Publishing Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY 4.0).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Open Access

Abstract
The concept of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2 is compared to the concept of a natural global
warming (NGW) driven by solar variability. The application of the AGW
concept only rests on models, whilst the NGW concept rests on multiple observational and evidence-based facts. Even more so, the long-term solar variability predicts a new Grand Solar Minimum with severe climatic conditions (type Little Ice Age) to occur in 2030-2050. This violates all talk about
an increasing, even accelerating, global warming. Similarly, there is no true
treat of a future sea level rise flooding lowlands and islands.

Keywords
Global Warming, CO2 Forcing, Solar Forcing, Temperature, Sea Level

1. Introduction
Real science advances via questioning and accumulation of new observational
facts. Far back in time, we left dogmatism behind. If Earth’s evolution goes forward via gradualism and catastrophism, science per se, rather advances via sudden new concepts (individual “aha” or “eureka” experiences), observational facts
or experiment results. It follows the path: observation-interpretation-conclusion.
In the modern new media world, fake news and falsified science may spread
rapidly. This is utilized by lobbyists. The boundary between realism and falsified“facts” (fake news) becomes invisible.
It all goes back to the early 70s. The Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin proposed the cause-and-consequence chain of increased CO2, increasing global
temperature, melting glaciers and rising sea level. In 1973, the first fuel crisis
happened. Olof Palme, the Swedish Prime Minister and old school friend to BoDOI: 10.4236/vp.2018.44005

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lin immediately saw new possibilities and a strong argument for leaving oil dependence and rapidly building up our nuclear power industry (“if we in 1990 do

not have at least 24 nuclear power plants, it will not survive as an industrial nation”). Already in 1975, the fear of a future increase in atmospheric CO2 content
was stated in the Swedish governmental declaration.
Palme realized that he would not be able to control science, so he proposed
the establishment of a new intergovernmental body within the United Nation tohandle the question. Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland grasped the message, and put it in focus in the Brundtland Report of 1988. IPCC was born and
Bolin became its first chairman with a basic mission: “to document the anthropogenic global warming”; i.e. the goal was set before the project started. The Sun
was purposely left outside “because this is a project in meteorology and oceanography”, he said.
So, everything was wrong all from the beginning. The IPCC reports followed
every 4 years. But science was not in the centre. When I, in 1999, was the expert reviewer of the sea level chapter, I became deeply shocked. This chapter
was very badly written and far below accepted reviewing standards. Furthermore, it was written by a group of 33 authors, none of which was a sea levelspecialist.
As a special research project of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level
Changes and Coastal Evolution, I launched an International Sea Level Project in
the Maldives. We rapidly obtained firm observational facts that sea level was not
at all in a rapidly rising mode in the Maldives, and that it even fell by 10 - 20 cm
in the 70s. The IPCC sea level story was revealed as a shameful fraud, and I published a booklet with the title The Greatest Lie Ever Told in 2007 [1].
In his book “Evidence-Based Climate Science” [2], Easterbrook concludes:
Because of the absence of physical evidence that CO2 causes global warming, theonly argument for CO2 as the cause of warming rests entirely in computer modelling.

2. Climate Always Changes
Climate always changes on the longer-term base as well as on the centennial anddecadal base. From 1970 to 2000, Earth experienced a “global warming” of about+0.6˚C. IPCC and its proponents claim that this is due to man-made CO2 emission; i.e. anthropogenic global warming (AGW). We, the climate realists, claimthat this is nonsense and the all present day warming is due to normal naturalvariations in climate; i.e. natural global warming (NGW).
There are three ways of testing the AGW hypothesis: 1) testing relation between CO2 content and temperature by experiments, 2) looking backwards overpast changes in temperature, and 3) looking forward comparing AGW-predictions
with actual temperature measurements.

2.1. Testing by Experiments
Anthony Watts repeated Al Gore’s “experiment” in support of AGW [3], and
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concluded that it was a hoax [4]. Repeated laboratory experiments under careful
control by a research group in Norway fail to document that an increased CO2
content gives higher temperature when heated by light [5]. Peter Ward announced an award of 10,000 USD for the person that by experiment could verify
that increased atmospheric CO2-content implies increased temperature: up tonow, no one has been able to do so, however.

2.2. Investigating past Variations in Temperature
Global mean temperature has fluctuated over the last 170 years (Figure 1, [6]):falling by 0.6˚C 1878-1910, rising by 0.6˚C 1910-1945, falling by 0.3˚C
1945-1975, rising by 0.6˚C 1975-2003 and falling by 0.05˚C 2003-2018. IPCC
and its proponents only consider the 1970-2000 period of temperature rise because only this period has some similarity with the rise in CO2. The rise in temperature in 1910-1940 is as big and rapid. But this rise can have nothing to dowith CO2—so it is a very strong indication of non-AGW forcing. Of course, thesame applies for the three periods of temperature fall. What is quite clearly documented, however, is a 60-year cyclicity. This cycle is fundamental in Earth’s
science [7] [8] and originates from solar forcing by Jupiter [9]. Consequently,
Figure 1 graph provides a manifestation of the NGW-concept in opposite to the
AGW-concept.

2.3. Investigating Predictions
It has become customary in the IPCC scenarios to make predictions to year 2100
AD. With the application of 102 different CO2-driven models IPCC claims that
global temperature by 2100 will rise to +2.7 ± 0.7˚C. The observed temperature
both at Earth’s surface and up in the troposphere does not agree with this, however. Rather do they indicate a temperature below to well below +1˚C at 2100
(Figure 2, [10]).

Figure 1. Cyclic changes in global temperature during the last 170 years, providing a manifestation of the NGW concept and solar forcing.
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Figure 2. The AGW models of IPCC suggest a rapid rise in global temperature, which is not validated by observational measurements. This provides another strong argument for NGW, not AGW, forcing.

When observations do not fit the models, it must of course be the models thatare wrong. In IPCC’s weird world, it is the observational facts, however. IPCC’s
counter-act includes altering of observational data, contradiction of alternative
views, discrediting of opponents and employment of professional lobbying firms(coining fake news like “97% of all scientists agree”, “consensus” and “science issettled”).

2.4. AGW vs. NGW
In conclusion, all three tests of the application of the AGW hypothesis totally failto lend any validation to this hypothesis. All three tests lend strong support to
the NGW concept, however.
Under normal scientific conditions, this would be quite enough to abandon
the AGW hypothesis, and turn to alternative solutions; i.e. NGW. It implies that
the Paris Agreement of 2015 was based on incorrect models and a shameful ignorance of scientific facts.
Table 1 summarizes the differences in the AGW and NGW concepts. AGW isdriven and maintained by populist power. Only NGW has science on its side.
Because the AGW hypothesis of IPCC is a product of United Nations, it hascome to obtain a nearly unquestionable populist status, however. With no meritsof its own but because of its UN (and EU) status, the AGW idea continues toadvance and form the base of international and national decisions.
In 2015, an Independent Committee on Geoethics was founded [11] with themission “to speak up and use the sword of truth when scientific facts, observa-

tional evidence and physical laws are being set aside, and when geoethical principles are violated”.
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Table 1. Comparison between the AGW and NGW concepts.
Science

Lobbyism

Basic working means

AGW

low & twisted97%

the end justifies the means

NGW

97%

unethical

the facts speak for themselves

3. Solar Forcing: A Better Alternative
We need an alternative forcing to CO2. Numerous papers and books (e.g. [2][12]-[18]) have shown that the main driving force is the variations in solar emission of irradiance and Solar Wind (Figure 3, [12] [14]), where the solar variability is controlled by planetary beat.

4. Sea Level Changes
Sea level changes pose the main threat in the AGW scenario, because they claim
sea level is in a rapidly rising, even accelerating, mode. This idea is based onmodels and twisted facts, however. In the real world, there are no traces of a rapidly rising sea level, and certainly not of an accelerating rate of sea level rise.
During the last 500 years, the eustatic changes in sea level have been dominated by the redistribution of ocean water masses over the globe; a processtermed rotational eustasy [8] [19] [20] [21]. Whilst sea level over the last 70
years has remained stable (i.e. at ±0.0 mm/yr) at the Maldives [1] [22] [23], Goa[23] [24] and Bangladesh [23] [25] in the Indian Ocean, and at Fiji [19] [26],Tuvalu [1] [23] and Vanuatu [1] in the Pacific, it has been rising at a rate ofabout 1.0 - 1.1 mm/yr in northern Europe, eastern USA and northwest USA [23][27] [28].
This implies the redistribution of ocean water masses between the northernlatitudes (above Lat. 30˚N) and the equatorial region (between Lat. 30˚N and
30˚S) on cyclic time-scales of 60 yr and the alternations between Grand Solar
Maxima and Minima [8] [19] [24]. This process can only be driven by the planetary beat on the Sun and the Earth-Moon system as shown in [8] [20] [21].
A eustatic sea level variability over the globe ranging between ±0.0 mm/yr and
1.0 ± 0.1 mm/yr fits perfectly well with observed changes in sea level over the last
300 years [29] [30]. Therefore, the best prediction for a sea level change at year
2100 seems to be +5 cm ± 15 cm [30], in strong disagreement to numerous
models (all lacking validation in observational facts) as illustrated in Figure 4
from [31].

5. A New Grand Solar Minimum in 2030-2050
Several scientists (e.g. [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]) have shown that we, in fact, areapproaching a New Grand Solar Minimum in about 2030-2050. In analogy withthe documented climate conditions during the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima, we may expect the return of a New Little Ice Age as illustrated in Figure 5(from [34] [35]).
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Figure 3. The concept of solar forcing [12] [14], where the planetary beat affects the solar
activity and emission of irradiance and Solar Wind, which interact with Earth and its terrestrial variables.

Figure 4. Observed changes in sea level during the last 150 years fluctuates at rates between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr, suggesting a rise by year 2100 of about +5 cm ± 15 cm.
Above this are model values, not validated by observations.

This implies that we, in two decades will be in the low of a New Grand Solar
Minimum and in climate conditions like previous Little Ice Ages. This means
just the total opposite to rapid warming of IPCC, which was the base for theParis Agreement in 2015.
It seems a bit ironic, because, when 19 eminent scientists in 2013 concluded[13]: “This sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continual, even accelerated,warming as proposed by the IPCC”, the whole journal of Pattern Recognition in
Physics was closed down (see [14]).
In 1615, Galileo Galilee wrote (see [14] p. 126): “No one should be scorned inphysical disputes for holding the opinions which happen to please other people
best”. Still, everyone questioning the AGW hypothesis will face severe scornfrom the IPCC and its proponents.
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Figure 5. Observed changes in ocean circulation and climate during
the Spörer (1440-1460), Maunder (1687-1703) and Dalton(1808-1821) Minima, which are likely to be repeated at the next
Grand Solar Minimum in 2030-2050.

6. Concluding Remarks
This ends my review of the AGW idea and NGW concept. Michael Crichton, atthe launching of his book State of Fear, said: “after several years of painstaking

research, I came to the shocking conclusion that global warming was hot air”.
I leave it to the reader to choose between the hot air of AGW and the evidence-based facts of NGW.
For me the choice is obvious. Only the NGW concept is based on science andevidence-based facts. On the personal plane, it means that all climate panic andhysteria can be put aside. On the national plane, it means that the Paris Agreement should be reconsidered.
All changes in climate and sea level are natural changes leading their origin inplanetary-solar-terrestrial interaction.

Conflicts of Interest
The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

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