A changing climate
for business

3RD EDITION, JUNE 2010

Acknowledgements
This report was written and edited by Gerry Metcalf, Kay
Jenkinson and Kay Johnstone of UKCIP. It is the second
update of the document of the same title, published by
UKCIP in 2005 and 2009. We would like to thank Mark
Goldthorpe and Alex Moczarski (UKCIP), and the Defra
Adapting to Climate Change team for their comments on
earlier drafts.
We hope that this report will inspire you to pursue
climate change impacts and adaptation work in your own
organisation. Members of the UKCIP team will be pleased
to discuss how to help you.
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
School of Geography and the Environment, OUCE,
South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY
Tel:
Fax:
Email:

01865 285717
01865 285710
enquiries@ukcip.org.uk

www.ukcip.org.uk
June 2010
ISBN 978-1-906360-10-8

The chameleon
The chameleon is chosen for the cover illustration as itprovides an excellent set of metaphors for adaptation
to a changing environment. As the surrounding
environment changes, the chameleon adapts its skincolour in three different but related ways:• automatic response• conscious controlled response• chain reaction response to other parts of the body.
This reflects the ways in which human society, and theindividuals and organisations which make up society,will also adapt to a changing climate.

Introduction

Introduction
The weather already significantly
affects economic activity. As the climatechanges, all sectors of UK business will
be faced with preparing for a rangeof new threats and opportunities.
This report presents an overview ofclimate change impacts and adaptation
for business. It is aimed at business
managers as well as those in businessfacing organisations and is based on
UKCIP’s practical experience. Following
the headline messages in Section 1,
Sections 2 and 3 present the climatechange projections and a summaryof impacts. Section 4 then uses thisinformation to build a business case foradaptation. Section 5 provides someadvice for companies just starting out,
as well as for those a bit further on.
Real business case studies illustrate key
points.
We hope that this report will inspire you to pursue
climate change impacts and adaptation work in yourown organisation. Members of the UKCIP team will bepleased to discuss how to help you.

Contents
Section 1
Headlines for business
Key messages and what to do next

2

Section 2
4
Climate change projections for the 21st
century
Projections for weather variables in the 21st
century for the UK, data sources, uncertainty
Section 3
6
Impacts of weather & climate on business
Impacts of recent weather events on business

Section 4
8
The business case for adaptation
From weather and climate to the case for action

Section 5
Becoming a well-adapting business
Case studies and suggested actions

10

Section 6
Tools, resources & support
Pointers to UKCIP publications, partners,
networks and other sources of support

18

UK Climate Impacts Programme
School of Geography and the Environment
OUCE, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY
T 01865 285717
E enquiries@ukcip.org.uk
www.ukcip.org.uk

UKCIP • 1

A changing climate for business

Section 1: Headlines for business

The climate is changing in the UK and inother countries around the world. A certain
amount of change is unavoidable.

5

The changing climate could be an issue foryour business and could well affect yourbottom line.

High emissions

Temperature change (ºC)

432
Low emissions
1

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year

Some of the most powerfulevidence of climate change
is provided by nature:changing seasons, earlier
blossom and buds onplants or the earlier arrivalof migrating birds.

Lag times of greenhousegases in the atmospheremean that some climatechange is unavoidable
regardless of current or
future emissions.

Some industrial andagricultural processes are
climate sensitive and someequipment has operating
requirements that climatechange could jeopardise.

Flooding, subsidence,
excessive temperatures
or stormy weather cancause damage to stockor equipment or lossof business continuity,
therefore directly affecting
the bottom line.

The weather has impacts across a range ofbusiness areas, not just the obvious ones,
and not just ‘environmental’ ones.

Businesses and business sectors are
particularly vulnerable to climate change
if they are currently affected by weather
events or make long term investment,
especially infrastructure.

Climate impacts on people:
as customers for goods
and services, and as
members of a workforce
for whom working
conditions, both inside andout, could change beyond
acceptable thresholds.

Infrastructure for transport
and utilities is particularly
vulnerable, and therefore
puts at risk transport andutilities companies andthose businesses that use
their systems.

2 • UKCIP

Nearly all businesses
make use of premises andtransport systems, bothof which are vulnerable
to weather-related events
like floods, storms, andsubsidence.

There has been asteady rise in the costsof business claims forweather damage. In
2008, 29% of businesses
reported disruption as aresult of extreme weather(Chartered Management
Industry Survey, 2009).

Section 1: Headlines for businessClimate change will bring commercial
opportunities as well as threats.

Businesses that have global markets or
suppliers could be affected by climatechange in other countries.

Some markets will expand
and there will be newmarket opportunities,
such as outdoor leisure,summer food, drinks andclothes and flood defence
technologies.

Climate impacts on
agriculture in othercountries could result inmarket opportunities for
UK food production.

Some industrial andagricultural processes
and activities could
become easier or more
economically viable andwinter heating costs will be
reduced.

Many UK-based companies
rely on manufacturing
operations in East andSouth East Asia, where
impacts such as an increasein the frequency of tropicalstorms and water scarcity
are expected.

Although the impacts of climate change areuncertain, they can be managed like anyother business risk.

Planning ahead is often more likely tolead to cost-effective adaptation thanresponding to changes as they happen.

The way in which climatechange will translate intobusiness consequences is
not certain. However, there
are uncertainties relating
to all aspects of businessplanning and this does notmean that inaction is thebest option.

Climate risk management
needs to be incorporated
into mainstream business
management strategies
and procedures.

Risk is the combinationof the likelihood of
occurrence and themagnitude of theconsequence of a hazard.
It is a useful concept for
dealing with an uncertain
future.

Some adaptation will
occur without long leadin times, but it takes time
to recognise a change ishappening and to put inplace the right institutionalarrangements.

UKCIP • 3

A changing climate for business

Section 2: Climate change projections forthe 21st century
Unavoidable climate change in the UK

50% probability level
Central estimate

10% probability level
Very unlikely to beless thanIn the UK climate change is expected to mean thefollowing.

90% probability level
Very unlikely to begreater than• warmer, drier summers

WinterChanges to the long-term/seasonal averages:• milder, wetter winters• rising sea levels
Changes in extremes:• more intense downpours of rain
• fewer days with frost
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) present projections
for a range of climate variables at a resolution of 25 km
across the UK. Projections are made for three emissions
scenarios (High, Medium and Low), which make different
assumptions about future technologies and economic
growth, and therefore the levels of greenhouse gas
emissions we can expect. None of the scenarios include
mitigation efforts. It allows users to look at sevenoverlapping 30-year periods starting with the one
centred on the 2020s (2010–2039), going up to the2080s (2070–2099).

Summer• more very hot days

–70

This page shows a small selection of information available
from UKCP09 at the 10, 50 and 90% probability levels.
In other words, the current evidence suggests that thechange is very unlikely to be less than that indicated by

4 • UKCIP–30–10 0 10

30

50

70

Figure 1: showing change in winter & summer
precipitation for the 2040s (2030–2059) under the Highemissions scenario. © UK Climate Projections 2009.

50% probability level
Central estimate

10% probability level
Very unlikely to beless than

90% probability level
Very unlikely to begreater than

SummerDealing with uncertainty
There is a high level of certainty that climate change ishappening and is being largely driven by greenhouse gas
emissions. However, there are uncertainties relating to
the future rates and geographical distribution of thesechanges. In order to help deal with this, the UKCP09
projections are probabilistic in nature, allowing users
to identify the change associated with different levelsof confidence. Although the new projections are more
complicated, they start to quantify the uncertainties in
the modelling, which were hidden in previous sets ofprojections like UKCIP02.

–50

Change in winter mean precipitation (%) for the 2040s,
High emissions scenario

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Change in summer mean temperature (ºC) for the 2040s,
High emissions scenario

Figure 2: showing change in summer mean temperature
for the 2040s (2030–2049) under the High emissions
scenario. © UK Climate Projections 2009.

Section 2: Climate change projections for the 21st century

Unavoidable climate change
Due to the inertia in the climate system, we are alreadycommitted to a certain amount of climate change as aresult of the greenhouse gases emitted in the past; thetime lag is around 30–40 years between emitting and theresulting temperature change. Figure 3 shows the effecton projected global temperature of past greenhouse gas
emissions, which will influence our climate until aroundthe mid-century. Our choices about reducing emissions
now only start to make a difference from the 2040s
onwards. Although it is important to reduce emissions
now in order to avoid the dangerous climate change
associated with the top of the red line, we also need toadapt to the changes that are unavoidable.

53

2
Low emissions
1

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year

Figure 3: showing temperature change associatedwith High and Low emissions scenarios over the 21st
century. © UK Climate Projections 2009.

Estimated number of days per year where
the temperature exceeds 25°C (Highemissions scenario, central estimate)

What about extremes?
The maps opposite show seasonal averages. However,
it is often the extremes of climate that are the mainconcern for business. The UKCP09 probabilistic projections
and the Weather Generator (WG) allow users to explorechanges in the frequency of some extreme events. Table
1 shows the sort of information that can be obtainedusing the Weather Generator. In this case, the expected
increase in the annual number of warm days is shown forthe 2040s under the High emissions scenario.

High emissions

4
Temperature change (ºC)

the 10% probability level, or more than indicated by the
90% probability level. To access the UKCP09 projections,
go to http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk.

Location

Baseline (1961–1990)

2040s

London

15

50

Derry

1

3

Plymouth3

21

Table 1: Estimated annual number of warm days
(temperature greater than 25°C) for the 2040s underthe High emissions scenario.

Global climate change
Increasingly, businesses operate in global markets andrely on global supply networks. Therefore, the way theclimate is expected to change outside of the UK will
have implications for businesses based here, as they
make plans to adapt. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change 4th Assessment Report contains someglobal climate projections. For example, in Asia, as
well as increasing temperatures, we currently expect
increasing precipitation across most of the continent,
an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, snow melt
leading to floods and water shortages in areas that
already suffer from water stress. Figure 4 shows the
expected increase in hot days and heavy rainfall daysin Asia.
Figure 4: Projected number of hot days (>30°C) andheavy rainfall (>100 mm/day) in Asia. Source IPCC
4th Assessment Report.

UKCIP • 5

A changing climate for business

Section 3: Impacts of weather & climate
on business
Weather already affects business
Twenty-nine per cent of UK businesses reported
experiencing some kind of disruption as a result of
extreme weather in 2008 (Chartered Management
Institute survey, 2009). Many more will have experienced
more subtle effects of weather on productivity or sales.
This suggests that businesses are not even well adapted
to the current climate. Therefore, even if the climate
were not changing, it would be worth building resilience
to extreme weather. This will help to protect business andjobs, reduce the costs of disruption and maximise any
opportunities arising from weather and climate.

The difference between weather and climate

Floods result in loss of business continuity
Following the summer 2007 floods, many businesses
were unable to operate normally. Flooded sales
premises or loss of power and communications
resulted in lost orders and enquiries. Where
businesses were out of action for some time, there
was a serious effect on trade – particularly small
businesses. Delays were increased by paperwork
which had been lost or damaged in the flooding,resulting in problems making insurance claims,
tracing orders and filling in tax returns. Pitt, M(2007) Learning lessons from the 2007 floods,
Interim Report, Cabinet Office, London.

‘Weather’ describes the rain or shine outside right now
or in the near future while the ‘climate’ describes theweather at a locality averaged over 30 years.
“Climate is what you expect – weather iswhat you get” R.A. Heinlen, 1973
The weather is naturally very variable but it is the climatethat is now also changing as a result of greenhousegas emissions. Although weather events are not inthemselves evidence of climate change, exploring thebusiness consequences of extreme weather events(including snow events, which are expected to becomeless frequent) can help build an understanding ofvulnerability to weather and climate. This is importantin helping to inform efforts to adapt to future climatechange.

Weather affects retail
During the wet summer of 2008, shoppers turned
towards so-called comfort foods in an effort todispel the cold and wet summer weather. According
to Asda, sales of mince, soup, custard and gravy
showed significant increases Talking Retail, 22
August 2008.
In contrast, high street sales surged in June 2003 as
shoppers stocked up on booze and barbecues amidsoaring temperatures. Sales rose 3% on a like-forlike basis, and 5.7% in total from a year earlier, said
the British Retail Consortium. The heatwave fuelledsales of ice cream, barbecue food and alcohol, withclothes and sandals also selling well (BBC News, 15
July 2003). Hot weather can also mean that people
travel less and use local shops and services more.
Climate South East, 2008.

6 • UKCIP

Section 3: Impacts of weather & climate on businessLooking to the future
The climate changes described on page 4 will bring awide range of both positive and negative impacts on
business.
The summary below is based on the six headings from
UKCIP’s Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment
Tool (BACLIAT), which is a workshop aid for scoping theimpacts of climate change on a business or sector and isavailable from www.ukcip.org.uk/bacliat.
• Changing demand for goods and services and impacts
on customer access will result in changing markets.
This will create business opportunities, for example
where the private sector is able to provide theknowledge, skills and technologies required to help
society adapt. In some cases it could lead to reduced
sales, such as of cold weather related products andservices.
• Business logistics (supply chains, utilities andtransport arrangements) can be disrupted by extreme
weather events. This is likely to affect businesses
across all sectors to some extent, threatening
business continuity. Those that rely heavily on
utilities, the transport network or who have inflexible
supply networks will be particularly vulnerable. ‘Justin time’ and ‘single source’ supply systems, although
efficient (under predictable conditions), increase thisinflexibility.
• Business premises will be affected through impacts
on building fabric, structure and the comfort
conditions of the internal environment. This will have
implications for the design, construction, maintenanceand facilities management of both existing and new
business premises. Designing buildings that areboth low carbon and resilient to the future climate
presents a significant challenge.
• People are affected by the weather. Heat has
physiological effects, inclement weather can affectconcentration and weather patterns influence
behaviour and lifestyles. Businesses will therefore beaffected by climate change as their employees andcustomers are affected and respond in different ways.

opportunities if a new process becomes economically
viable in the new climate.
• Company finances will be affected by climate change
through the cost of damage, disruption and lost
sales driven by all of the above. There will also
be financial impacts on business as the insurance
industry seeks to spread the increasing risk and as
investors increasingly take future climate risks into
account. Access to finance may become a problem ifbanks start to refuse credit to companies that are not
managing climate risk properly.

Investors’ response
Investors are beginning to recognise that they
have a critical role to play in adaptation through:research to understand the risks; incorporationof climate risks into investment analysis anddecision making, and; engagement and dialogue
with companies and policy makers to encourage
adaptation and policy development (Managing
the unavoidable: Understanding the investment
implications of adapting to climate change. Sullivan,
Russell and Robins, 2008). For example, Barclays
Environmental Risk Management and HSBC are both
involved in research initiatives aimed at making moreaccurate assessments across investment portfolios.
Confederation of British Industry, 2009.

The hospitality industry
Climate change is expected to bring opportunities tothe UK hospitality industry, particularly at the fringesof the season (e.g. March and October) and in more
northern destinations. Also, those providing services
close to outdoor leisure facilities, such as sports
grounds, gardens and natural parks or beaches,
could see a significant opportunity for improved
business performance for longer periods of the year.
Hospitality magazine, November 2008.

• Some industrial processes and business activities
are temperature or climate sensitive. Therefore,
productivity in some sectors will be affected. This
could mean that new equipment or ways of doing
things are required in order to maintain productivity
and continuity. There may also be business

UKCIP • 7

A changing climate for business

Section 4: The business case for adaptation

The business case for adaptation can be made in termsof maximising profits, managing risks and making themost of strategic opportunities. Building a business casefor adaptation requires more than making the scientificcase for climate change. An understanding of the likely
business risks and opportunities, and why a planned
approach should be taken is also required (see Figure5). Some companies will also be driven to adapt byregulatory and other requirements.

Managing risks and exploiting opportunities
The climate impacts summarised on page 7 will directly
affect sales, productivity, input costs and overheads andcould translate to a range of new or increasing businessrisks (see Figure 5). The impacts of climate change could
also present some strategic opportunities for business.
For example, there may be business development
opportunities arising from new or growing markets, newproduction possibilities, or opportunities arising frombeing better placed than competitors to deal with climate
risks (first mover advantage).

Regulatory and other requirements
The Climate Change Act 2008 creates a framework forbuilding the UK’s capacity to adapt. Under the Act,
the UK Government has the power to require publicauthorities and some businesses such as utilities andtransport operators to report how they are assessing
and managing the risks of climate change. At present
this only covers 90 companies, however, its influence
could extend much further throughout the private sector
through supply chains.
Other requirements that could drive business adaptation
include:• Planning policy.
• Thresholds contained within contracts or service
level agreements, such as a facilities managementcompany being required to guarantee they will not
close the building for more than 3 days in a year.
• Requirements for contractors to local authorities thathave adaptation as a local priority.
Potential future requirements include:

8 • UKCIP• Industry codes and standards will be updated to takeaccount of the changing climate.
• The TUC is campaigning for a legal upper temperature
limit for workplaces.
• Requirements of insurers or insurance products thattake account of the climate risk.

Why take a planned approach?
Climate change is an ongoing, long-term phenomenon
with a degree of uncertainty attached to it and as suchit is often difficult to see how its effects can be managed
within the short planning horizons of a commercialorganisation. Therefore, it is tempting to wait for changes
to take effect and respond to them as they happen.
Much adaptation will be passive or occur in a reactive
way. However, this is inherently a more risky approachand a planned approach is more likely to lead to efficient
adaptation. Four arguments for taking a planned
approach to adaptation are outlined below.
1. Difficulty in recognising the climate signal. The
weather is chaotic and the climate also varies naturally
on several different timescales. These tend to mask theclimate change signal, making it difficult to detect.
2. Adaptive capacity needs to be built over time.
For example, information may be required in order
to: determine the best adaptation option; understandsynergies and conflicts in the broader context; re-write
relevant policies, plans and procedures; and assign roles
and responsibilities. All of this requires a certain amountof forward planning and time.
3. Retrofitting is often more expensive. Maintenanceprogrammes, new buildings or the replacement of oldequipment represent an opportunity to take account of
the future climate even if no impacts are currently being
felt. Although there may be costs associated with this, inmany cases it is likely to be cheaper in the long run.
4. Planning ahead is still possible in the face of
uncertainty. It is true that there is considerable
uncertainty surrounding future climate impacts. A riskbased approach allows you to make decisions in theface of uncertainty and is more likely to lead to efficient
adaptation.

Section 4: The business case for adaptation

1

TThe scientific case for climate change

Pages 4–5

2

A range of risks & opportunities

Pages 6–7

Climate change

Potential
impacts on:• Markets• Logistics• Reputational risk
• Environmental risk
• Operational risk

• Process• Finance• Financial risk

• People• Premises• Health & safety risk
• Strategic risk
• Production opportunity• Market opportunity

3

TThe case for a planned approach

Page 8Figure 5: Building the business case for adpatation.

UKCIP • 9

A changing climate for business

Section 5: Becoming a well-adapting
business
This section provides some ideas and advice on
how to progress towards becoming a well-adapting
business, based on UKCIP’s experience and backed up
with business case studies. Some simple actions aresuggested, including actions for those just getting started
and for those who already have a good idea of theirpriority climate and weather risks. This is not designed
to be a sequential process or checklist and the precise
approach is likely to vary greatly between organisations.
It is recommended that those formally working towards
developing an adaptation strategy access additional tools
and resources. There are many of these available to helporganisations adapt, including UKCIP products, which arefreely available from www.ukcip.org.uk. Some of these
are listed on pages 18–19.

Existing decision points present opportunities
There will be points in time that represent opportunities
for cost-effective adaptation, such as at the design stageof a new development, the planning stage of a new
project or during review of policy or strategy. Missingthese opportunities could lead to building in increased
vulnerability to climate change.
Actions for those just getting started• Identify any upcoming new initiatives that could be
weather- or climate-sensitive and make sure thecurrent and future climate are taken into account at
the outset.
• Where assets are exposed to weather and climate,flag up their renewal and maintenance as occasions
for considering the climate risk.
Actions for all• Use your schedule for board/committee meetings to
identify opportunities to introduce climate change
impacts and adaptation to your colleagues.
• Consider whether and how adaptation could bemainstreamed at the review stage of relevant plans
and management systems (see ‘mainstreaming
adaptation’).

10 • UKCIP

Actions for those a bit further on• At the review of management systems consider
whether they could be an appropriate mechanism formainstreaming your adaptation response.
• Identify adaptation measures that can be
implemented in a cost-effective way when assets areup for renewal or during routine maintenance. Make
sure this is written into your plans.

Case study: Decision points – Network Rail
Network Rail has a schedule for enhancement
and renewal of its assets. It recognises thesepoints in time as an opportunity for cost effective
consideration of climate change and resilience. In
the South West two lines were closed for 2 days in2005 due to flooding. They have estimated that this
could increase to four lines for 9 days by 2085 if
nothing is done. Network Rail have pledged £160m
to improve drainage between 2009 and 2014 andare also working with the Met Office to increase thewarning period for heavy rain.
Source: Confederation of British Industry (2009)
Future proof: preparing your business for achanging climate.
Photo courtesy of Network Rail

Section 5: Becoming a well-adapting business

Building resilience to current weather
variability
There is benefit to building resilience to weather, evenin the absence of climate change. Therefore, action
can be taken without the need to understand complex
and uncertain future impacts. This approach, which
doesn’t seek to engage with the future climate, may beparticularly appropriate for businesses that operate withshort planning horizons.
Actions for those just getting started• Check the Environment Agency maps to see if you
are in a flood risk area. If you are, take precautionary
measures to reduce the risk of disruption in the eventof a flood, such as keeping valuable items off theground, putting in place a flood response plan or
taking out business continuity insurance.
• Check whether your insurance policy will coverweather related damage and consider taking out
busines continuity insurance.
Actions for all• Collect information on how past weather events haveaffected your business, using for example, company
records and people’s recollections. This information
may provide you with a case for action. It will also
help you to understand the relationship between
your business and the weather as a starting point to
exploring your vulnerability to climate change andidentifying potential adaptation measures.
Actions for those a bit further on• Calculate the cost of past weather events (damage,lost sales etc). Use this to make the case for taking
action on cost/benefit grounds.

Case study: Reactive measures – The
Merchant’s Fish Bar
The Merchant’s Fish Bar in Bewdley is a wellestablished and successful SME. In November 2000,
heavy rains resulted in the worst flooding for over
50 years along the River Severn and the town was
severely affected. Merchant’s Fish Bar was flooded
and the equipment in the chip shop damaged
beyond repair. Unfortunately their insurance policy
excluded flood cover, and the business suffereda significant uninsured loss. As a reaction to thisexperience, the owner worked to adapt the shop
during the refit, to take account of the flood risk.
New fryers have been set on a hydraulic system,enabling them to be raised above flood level and the
fridges are now all made from stainless steel, withthe motors set at the top rather than the bottom.
All equipment (except for the fryers) can now be
removed before flooding occurs. In addition, theducting for the ventilation system has also been
sealed to prevent water finding its way in, which will
have benefits even in the absence of a flood.
Source: Weathering the storm and saving money ina changing climate (2010) West Midlands Climate
Change Adaptation Partnership.

Case study: Reactive measures – Lochaberpower plant
On a larger scale, Rio Tinto’s hydro-electric power
plant at Lochaber implemented adaptation measures
as a response not to a single weather event, but togradual changes in rainfall patterns, which they had
recorded. They have recorded an overall increasein catchment runoff of 12% since 1944 with winterrainfall increasing and summer rainfall decreasing.
The new hydro power station – that will increase
capacity to 80 MW – has incorporated thesechanging climatic aspects into its design. In addition,
all strategy and water management models relating
to the day-to-day operation of the plant have beenrevised to use more recent runoff data.
Source: CBI (2009) Future proof: preparing yourbusiness for a changing climate.

UKCIP • 11

A changing climate for business

Building adaptive capacity (BAC)
Adaptive capacity includes the knowledge, resources,
support systems and legislative frameworks thatencourage, allow or require organisations to deliver
adaptation actions. Companies will need to take action tobuild their own adaptive capacity but organisations that
represent, support or regulate business will also havean important role to play in this area. Figure 6 showssome examples of ways in which business and externalorganisations can build adaptive capacity.
Actions for those just getting started• Gather and present information to make the case foradaptation and obtain buy-in.
• If you are an organisation that supports, represents
or regulates business, consider your capacity toencourage, enable or support adaptation in yoursector (see the outer circle of Figure 6).

Case study: Roles for business-facingorganisations – OfWat
Under the Water Act (2003), OfWat have a statutory
duty to contribute towards sustainable development.
They see climate change adaptation as part ofthis and have been working towards building theadaptive capacity of the water industry. Measures
have included: water efficiency and leakage targets,
reviewing water management plans, encouraging
companies to act on a range of climate impacts anddeveloping an analytical framework for companies toassess the resilience of assets to flooding and theevaluation of intervention options.
Source: OfWat (2008) Preparing for the FutureOfWat’s Climate Change Policy Statement.

Actions for all• Find out what external organisations (tradeassociations, etc.) are doing to help build theadaptive capacity of your sector. There may be ways
you can contribute to or influence these activities.
Actions for those a bit further on• Once there is a high level commitment to doing
something around adaptation, consider whatorganisational structures need to be in place andwhat information is required.
• When you have decided which adaptation measures
to implement, consider what institutions will beneeded to support this action.

Case study: Building adaptive capacity
through research – GSK
Ribena, which is produced by GSK, uses 95% of the
UK’s total blackcurrant crop. Weather conditions are
crucial for the production of blackcurrants. One way
to cope with difficult weather patterns is to develop
different crop varieties and GSK is supporting work at
the Scottish Crop Research Institute to develop morevarieties of blackcurrant.
Source: GSK web site http://www.gsk.com/infocus/
purple.htm.

12 • UKCIP

Case study: Roles for business-facingorganisations – the Chartered Institute of
Building Services Engineers
The Chartered Institute of Building Services Engineers(CIBSE) is a professional institution that supports
the science, art and practice of building services
engineering. They recognise that the impactsof climate change (in particular in relation tooverheating in buildings) are an issue that should
be taken into consideration within their technicalguidance and advice. They have therefore beenworking towards building the adaptive capacity of
their members’ profession with initiatives including:a research project on climate change and the indoor
environment, collaboration on Knowledge Transfer
Partnerships and incorporation of climate projections
into CIBSE guidance.
Source: Personal communication.

Section 5: Becoming a well-adapting business

Building adaptive capacity
Internal actions:• Create, gather or share information
e.g. reading around the subject, research,briefing colleagues or external stakeholders,collecting weather/ impact data etc.
• Create supportive governance

Building adaptive capacity
External organisations:• Trade associations/ professional bodies
CPD, position papers, awareness raising,accreditation, research, partnerships etc.

e.g. codes, standard, regulations, contracts,
management systems, plans, strategies etc.

• Regulators• Create supportive organisational structure

enforcing regulatory requirements

e.g. partnerships, new roles andresponsibilities etc.

• Standard setting bodies
new codes and standards
for adaptation• Government
supportive policy andregulatory environment• etc.

Figure 6: Examples of options for building adaptive capacity.

Figure 7: Examples of options for delivering adaptation actions.

Delivering adaptation action• Accept, spread or share loss
e.g. insurance• Avoid or minimise
negative impacts• Exploit positive opportunities
e.g. introduce new activity,
target new market or new
way of marketing

For example:• Strategice.g. switch to a new less climate sensitive process• Temporary
e.g. sand bags to use during flood event• Technicale.g. solar shading• Change to working practicee.g. arrangements for working from home
• System for quick recovery
e.g. emergency response plan

UKCIP • 13

A changing climate for business

Delivering adaptation action (DAA)
Delivering adaptation action involves putting in place
the physical structures or managerial arrangements that
respond to the opportunities or threats presented by thechanging climate. Adaptation options can range fromlarge scale infrastructure projects to simple low-techsolutions and include managerial, technical and strategic
actions. Figure 7 gives an overview of different types of
DAA options with examples.
Actions for those a bit further on• When priority climate risks have been identified,brainstorm a range of potential adaptation options,drawing for example on past experience and theexperience of others as well as employing morecreative thinking.
• Select preferred adaptation options using cost benefit
or multicriteria techniques or more informal methods,
such as looking for win-wins.

Case study: Learning from international
experience – Pixley Berries

Case study: Adaptation/mitigation win-wins– Shepherd Neame Ltd
Kent brewer, Shepherd Neame, have built up
significant environmental credentials throughinvestment in energy and water efficiency andtaking steps to reduce CO2 emissions and effluent
discharges. They operate to Environmental
Management Standard ISO14001 and havesubstantially undershot the Government’s Energy
Efficient Quotient (EEQ). Their water efficiency
measures, which will build resilience against futurewater shortages as well as saving energy, are an
example of ways in which adaptation and mitigation
measures can be synergistic. These include plans
to modify its cleaning so that they recycle the final
rinse, reducing water consumption by 10% andinvestigating equipment which will separate waterfrom product waste and reuse it for washing andcooling.
Source: SEEDA (2003) Sustainable Business Awards
Case Study – Shepherd Neame.

Pixley Berries comprises a fruit and hops farm anda fruit pressing station. They have their own rangeof superfruit cordials as well as selling about half ofthe fruit to GSK for Ribena. Following a devastating,and unexplained, crop failure in 1998, the farm
began to explore the impact of climate change on
the blackcurrant crop. The farmer visited farms
abroad and investigated varieties that could copewith increasingly hot summers and warmer damper
winters. As a result, a re-planting programme was
begun, including the Pixley Black – a variety of
blackcurrant that produces deep coloured, intensely
flavoured juice.
Source: Weathering the storm (2010) West
Midlands Climate Change Adaptation Partnership.

Case study: A mix of technical and strategic
solutions – Slough Estates
Slough Estates builds and owns buildings forbusinesses located in prime business centres in theUK, continental Europe and North America. As partof their response to current and future climate risks,
they now have a policy not to develop on flood
plains and have fitted several of their properties withsolar shading, filter funnel soakaways and water
efficiency measures.
SEEDA (2003) Sustainable Business Awards Case
Study – Slough Estates plc.

14 • UKCIP

Section 5: Becoming a well-adapting business

Using a risk-based approach

Taking account of planning horizons

A risk-based approach is a good way of responding topotential future climate impacts in the face of uncertainty
and in the context of all the other business risks thatcompanies face. Risk is the combination of the likelihoodof an impact and magnitude of its consequence, anda risk assessment can be used to identify significant
climate impacts. It can also be used to evaluate a rangeof adaptation options. Many businesses are familiar andcomfortable with the concept. They are likely alreadyto be managing a range of business risks, to which theclimate risk can be added.

When planning for the future climate it is importantto recognise how far into the future you need to look.
This will vary between companies and sectors, reflecting
their different planning horizons. Some companies
may even have different planning horizons for different
decisions. Assets with long lifetimes will need toconsider adaptation sooner and decisions with long-term
consequences, such as the building of new infrastructure,
will need to look further ahead than shorter term
considerations, such as annual contracts.

Actions for those just getting started• If you have assets with long lifetimes or long planninghorizons (greater than 20 years), it is vital that the
future climate is factored in to decisions relating tothese aspects of your business. Look at the climate
projections (UKCP09) and consider what effect thesechanges could have.

• Use the language of risk when talking about the
impacts of weather and climate to colleagues.
• Brainstorm with colleagues around the potential
threats and opportunities from climate change(for example by using UKCIP’s BACLIAT tool,
www.ukciporg.uk/bacliat). Aim to generate ascomprehensive a list as possible and then assess therisk of each in order to prioritise key ones.
Actions for all• Talk to whoever manages your company’s risk register
about the extent to which weather risks are alreadyincluded and consider if and how climate change
could be incorporated.
Actions for those a bit further on• Consider assessing the risks associated with awide range of adaptation options including the ‘donothing’ option.

Actions for those just getting started• For businesses or business areas with short planninghorizons it is less important to consider the futureclimate. Instead, focus on building resilience tocurrent weather variability or looking for win-wins.
For example, where an action that you want totake for another reason such as to reduce carbon
emissions or to improve work/life balance will have an
adaptation co-benefit.
Actions for those a bit further on• Throughout all your adaptation work, be explicit
about the timescale that is appropriate, i.e. to which
future climate each aspect of your business needs toadapt.

Case study: Risk-based assessment –National Association of Cider Makers
The National Association of Cider Makers (NACM)
carried out an industry-led adaptation study.
After brainstorming a long list of potential future
impacts, they prioritised the main climate risks forthe industry by carrying out a risk assessment.
Key to the success was that it was carried out in aworkshop setting involving people with different but
complementary expertise and experience, ranging
from orchard farming to cider production and market
trends. The report set out a selection of potential
adaptation measures for tackling the priority risks, tohelp both cider-makers and farmers.

Case study: Planning horizons – IMechE

Source: NACM (2008) A Changing Climate for Cider.

Source: IMechE (2008) Adapting to the Inevitable.

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE)commissioned two studies into the impacts ofclimate change on UK engineering and whatengineers need to do to adapt. Given that the
majority of existing infrastructure will continue to be
operational for at least another 100–200 years the
IMechE decided to look further than most climatechange scenarios. Their report therefore examineschanges of the next 1000 years and considers how
engineers might help the world to adapt over the
next few centuries.

UKCIP • 15

A changing climate for business

Case study: Planning horizons – the Port ofFelixstowe
The Port of Felixtowe used the UKCIP Adaptation
Wizard to identify the key climate risks to theiroperations. Assets at the port have a design life of
35 years and a service life of up 50–60 years, while
contracts are managed on much shorter timescales.
Therefore, they carried out a climate risk assessment
under three separate timescales to make surethat the right adaptation decisions are made atappropriate times.
Source: UKCIP Adaptation Wizard Case Study, www.
ukcip.org.uk/wizard.

Entrepreneurial approaches to adaptation
Although adaptation can be thought of as a risk
management exercise, entrepreneurial companies willfind that climate change presents many opportunities
to grow, diversify and innovate. Some companies will
therefore take on the adaptation challenge in a strategic
way as part of business development processes rather
than at the operational and managerial level.
Actions for those just starting out• Think about the products and services that society
will need more of as the climate changes andconsider during your strategic planning whether
your company is in a position to exploit any of thesemarkets.
• Think about whether demand for your product orservice or your production capabilities could increase
under the new climate and make sure you have theresources to make the most of this opportunity.
Actions for those a bit further on• If you have already identified your priority climate
risks, think about ways in which you could respondthat would result in a business opportunity. For
example, to obtain first mover advantage or to try out
or develop new products, processes, technologies orways of working.

Case study: Exploiting opportunities –Medical Photographic Service

Case study: Exploiting opportunities –Caribbean holiday providers
As well as new products and services, there may
be new ways of marketing to increase sales in theface of a changing climate. For example, several
Caribbean holiday providers (Sandals, Club Med,
SuperClubs, TNT Vacations, and Apple Vacations)have collaborated on an initiative to market thepositive aspects of the destination in the faceof a changing climate. This includes highlighting
measures that have been taken to adapt.
Source: Network for Business Sustainability (2009)
Case Studies and Tools: A systematic review of theliterature on business adaptation to climate change.

16 • UKCIP

Medical Photographic Services is an SME that also
recognised a business opportunity from climatechange in the form of medical photography service
for melanoma early detection.
Source: Emissions Strategy Solutions http://www.
ems2.com/

Section 5: Becoming a well-adapting businessWorking in partnership

Mainstreaming adaptation

Successful adaptation seems often to involve working in
partnership. Partnerships can be sectoral, geographicalor link companies with their suppliers, customers,
insurers, competitors or landlords. They are a good
way of: optimising resource; learning from each others’
experience where available information is scarce;
developing a common industry position; and building
shared institutions or joint adaptive capacity.

It may be possible to integrate some aspects ofadaptation into existing activities and business functions,such as business continuity, health and safety or risk
management and strategic planning.

Actions for all• Identify where others have a stake in an aspectof your business that is vulnerable to weather
and climate. Ask these organisations if they haveconsidered adaptation and set up a meeting to
explore a joint approach.
• Contact external organisations that exist to support or
represent you as you adapt to climate change. These
could include UKCIP, a trade association, Business
Link or other business advisor, your insurer andthe Environment Agency. You may decide that you
need technical expertise in the form of a commercial
consultant.

Case study: Working in partnership –Anglian Water
Anglian Water have developed a comprehensive
adaptation strategy and have taken several
adaptation actions including: recruiting a climate
specialist, awareness raising, leakage control,
promoting sustainable urban drainage, forecasting
the effects of sea-level rise and storms on coastal
assets and customers, adapting water management
plans to take account of climate change anddesigning new infrastructure to cope with futureclimate change. External partnerships both within
and outside the industry have been very importantin this work. This includes membership of formal
water industry bodies, regional based groups ororganisations with an interest in climate change suchas the regional climate change partnership and also
relevant national bodies, such as UKCIP. Personal
links have also proved to be important, for example
with the Met Office and the Tyndall Centre.
Source: http://www.anglianwater.co.uk/corporateresponsibility/our-strategy/mitigate/ and personal
contact with Anglian Water’s Climate Change
Scientist.

Actions for all• At the review stage of management systems, consider
whether and how adaptation to climate change could
be incorporated.
Actions for those a bit further on• Once you have identified priority climate risks, explore
whether there are existing systems through whichthese could be managed.

Case study: mainstreaming adaptation –Entergy
Entergy Corporation is an integrated energy company
engaged primarily in electric power production andretail distribution operations in the US. As well as
considering climate change in decisions about where
to locate important business centres, Entergy have
put together a business continuity group specificallyto look at broader implications of climate in thecontext of other serious business threats, including
terrorist acts and a potential flu pandemic.
Source: Network for Business Sustainability (2009)
Case Studies and Tools: A systematic review of theliterature on business adaptation to climate change.

Case study: mainstreaming adaptation – a
Midlands SME
An SME based in the Midlands made implementationof an emergency response plan part of theiradaptation response. This followed a brainstorming
session with risk management consultants as a
response to the 2007 floods and was accompaniedby physical measures including reinforcing retaining
walls and improving drainage.
Source: CBI (2009) Future proof: preparing yourbusiness for a changing climate.

UKCIP • 17

A changing climate for business

Section 6: Tools, resources & support

UKCIP has a number of tools to helporganisations assess their vulnerability to
climate change and to devise appropriate
ways to adapt to the changing climate. All
UKCIP reports and resources are available
free of charge.
Reports are available in a variety of formats, including
hard copy, CD and as pdfs from the UKCIP website atwww.ukcip.org.uk. Hard copies and CD versions can beordered online or by phone on 01865 285717.

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)
The UK Climate Projections provides probabilistic
information on expected changes in the UK’s climate at aregional level throughout the 21st century. The UKCP09
package also includes a Weather Generator, which will
enable users to estimate the increasing (or decreasing)frequency of specific weather types, such as heatwaves
or heavy downpours of rain. It is available through an
online facility enabling users to access the information
at different levels of detail and customise it for their
purposes.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

BACLIAT (Business Areas Climate Impacts
Assessment Tool)

UKCIP enews

BACLIAT is a simple tool aimed at helping organisations
scope the impacts of climate change. It uses six
headings representing generic business areas (markets,process, people, premises, logistics and finance) to
encourage the identification of a comprehensive list of
potential threats and opportunities from climate change.
It is primarily aimed for use in a workshop setting but
has also found application in research projects and thedevelopment of climate audits.

UKCIP produces a monthly email newsletter, enews, tokeep you up to date on latest developments in climatechange impacts and adaptation. It includes information
on research, news and events, with links to more detailed
information sources. Subscription is via the UKCIP
website, and is free of charge.

BACLIAT was developed in collaboration several of UKCIP’s
business stakeholders, representing a range of sectors.

A web-based resource aimed at those providing advice
and support to SMEs. Advice is provided on making
the business case and some practical tips for providing
appropriate support, including delivery resources.

www.ukcip.org.uk/bacliat

UKCIP Adaptation Wizard
The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard is an online tool to help you
adapt to climate change. It is based on the Environment
Agency and UKCIP report: Willows R.I., Connell, R.K.
(2003) Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty anddecision-making. It will take you through a 5-stepprocess that will help you to develop a climate change
adaptation strategy.
www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard

18 • UKCIP

CLARA (Climate Adaptation Resource for
Advisors)

www.ukcip.org.uk/clara

Climate change partnerships in the UK
The English regions and the devolved administrations
all now have climate change impacts partnerships thatbring together local stakeholders who share an interest in
climate change issues. The partnerships share informationand provide a focal point for action on climate change intheir communities. Some focus only on climate change
impacts and adaptation, while others also incorporate
work on climate change mitigation. Links to thesepartnerships can be found on the Climate UK website.

Section 6: Tools, resources & support

Climate UK is the national network of climate change
partnerships which exists in order to maximise the benefitof each partnership’s workwww.climateuk.net

UKCIP programme of work with business
UKCIP has a rolling programme of initiatives that involve
working with the business community. As well as working
directly with companies, they engage with organisations
that represent, support or regulate business. Advice
and support is free on the understanding that whereappropriate, findings and learning can feed back into
publicly-available tools and resources. See the UKCIP
website or telephone on 01865 285717 for more
information on current business initiatives and how to
get involved.
www.ukcip.org.uk/business

Other sources of information
Environment Agency (EA)The EA provides environmental protection andimprovement in England and Wales. They work withbusinesses and other organisations to prevent damage tothe environment by providing education and guidance.
www.environment-agency.gov.uk

In the North East BitC has a Business Resilience andClimate Change Adaptation Programme:www.bitc.org.uk/north_east/programmes/business_
resilience_and_climate_change_adaptation/
Confederation of British Industry (CBI)The CBI is the premier lobbying organisation for UK
business on national and international issues. They workwith the UK government, international legislators andpolicy-makers to help UK businesses compete effectively.
They have a programme of work on climate change,
which is driven by a dedicated climate change board.
http://climatechange.cbi.org.uk
Federation of Small Business (FSB)
The FSB is a campaigning pressure group promoting
and protecting the interests of the self-employed andowners of small firms. As well as having a lobbying role,
it delivers a wide range of services to business.
www.fsb.org.uk
Scottish Enterprise
Scottish Enterprise is Scotland’s main economic,
enterprise, innovation and investment agency. They
aim to stimulate the sustainable growth of Scotland’s
economy through a range of support services.

The Environment Agency also provide extensive
information on flooding:www.scottish-enterprise.com

www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/

Defra takes the lead on adaptation to climate change inthe UK. The Adapting to Climate Change team has a website, which provides a useful overview of climate change
adaptation and outlines the Government’s approach fordeveloping policy in this area. Note that adaptation isa devolved issue, and the devolved administrations aredeveloping their own programmes.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency
SEPA is responsible for the protection of the environment
in Scotland. Its task is to protect the land, air and waterin partnership with others, and enabling Scotland tosustain a strong and diverse economy.
www.sepa.org.uk
SEPA’s information on flooding can be found here:
www.sepa.org.uk/flooding
Business Link
Business Link is the primary access route for businesses
seeking support. It provides information on a range ofissues and provide a diagnostic and signposting function.
www.businesslink.gov.uk
Business in the Community
Business in the Community (BitC) is a membershiporganisation that aims to mobilise business for good.

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

www.defra.gov.uk
www.doeni.gov.uk
www.scotland.gov.uk
www.wales.gov.uk
Department for Energy and Climate Change
The Department was created in 2008, bringing together
the Government’s climate change and energy policy
areas. It leads on work to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and also on international adaptation initiatives.
www.decc.gov.uk

www.bitc.org.uk

UKCIP • 19

A changing climate for businessYour notes:

20 • UKCIP

The UK Climate Impacts Programme(UKCIP) helps organisations assess how
they might be affected by climate change,
so they can prepare for its impacts.
• UKCIP has co-ordinated stakeholder-led studies on the
climate change impacts for all regions of England andfor Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, as well as
studies in a number of sectors, including health andthe built environment.
• It is principally funded by the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) on behalf of the UK
government and devolved administrations as part of
the Government’s Adapting to Climate Change (ACC)
programme. UKCIP is based at the Environmental Change
Institute (ECI), University of Oxford.
• It promotes and co-ordinates stakeholder-led researchon the impacts of climate change and adaptation, it
facilitates stakeholder partnerships and capacity-building
programmes, and it provides common tools and datasets,
all of which are available free of charge.

June 2010
ISBN 978-1-906360-10-8