Climate Change Risks
to Coastal Buildings
and Infrastructure
A Supplement to the First Pass National Assessment

Published by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
www.climatechange.gov.au
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Climate Change Risks
to Coastal Buildings
and Infrastructure
A Supplement to the First Pass National Assessment

About this booklet
Adaptation is one of the three pillars of the AustralianGovernment’s climate change strategy.
In late 2009 the Australian Government released
the first national assessment of climate change risks
to Australia’s coastal assets. The Climate Change
Risks to Australia’s Coasts: a first pass national
assessment report identified significant risks to our
natural ecosystems, beaches and landscapes, and to
our settlements. In particular, the report provided ananalysis of the location and number of residential
properties that are at risk of inundation from rising sea
levels and erosion as a consequence of climate change.
This booklet supplements the analysis presented
in the Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts
report. It provides additional data on the exposureof commercial buildings (e.g. retail precincts),
light industrial buildings, and transport systems(road, rail, tramways) in Australia’s coastal areas.
Existing data on residential properties is also reported
in the booklet, as well as subsequent modelling of
projected population change and implications forthe exposure levels of residential properties.
The analyses in Climate Change Risks to Australia’s
Coasts and for this report were undertaken by Geoscience
Australia using its National Exposure Information
System (NEXIS) database. Building replacement values
in this booklet are also derived from data in NEXIS
and reflect 2008 replacement values of assets.
NEXIS is a relatively new dataset which is being
updated over time. The analysis in this report was notavailable when the original report, Climate Change
Risks to Australia’s Coasts, was released late in 2009.
The exposure of different infrastructure types ispresented at a state level, with information on the mostaffected local government areas for each state locatedat the back of the booklet.
It should be noted that the analysis in this booklet
considers the combined exposure to the hazards
of inundation and shoreline recession (erosion)associated with rising sea levels under a changing
climate. In the Climate Change Risks to Australia’s
Coasts report (2009) the analyses for inundation anderosion were presented separately. There will therefore
be differences in the figures reported for residential
properties between this booklet and the Climate
Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts report.

The report provides a plausible worst case scenario
to assess risk and inform a dialogue on a national
approach to manage risk in the future.
Nearer term impacts have also not been considered inthis assessment as finer scale modelling processes are
required for this. Understanding of both the shorter andlonger term implications will also be needed to inform
adaptation planning. Having access to this information allows
governments, the private sector and the Australiancommunity to understand and take steps to manage risks.

methodology – key points
and caveats• An upper end sea level rise scenario of
1.1 metres for the 2100 period was considered.
• A storm tide allowance (1-in-100 year event)is included in the analysis for Tasmania,
Victoria and New South Wales. For the otherstates, where state-wide storm tide modelling
was not available, an allowance for modelledhigh water level was used.
• The inundation modelling used a relatively
simple ‘bucket fill’ approach based on
medium resolution elevation data. The upperand lower estimates help to bound the data
uncertainties, particularly those associatedwith the medium resolution elevation data.
• The analysis does not take account of existing
coastal protection such as seawalls, and does
not include analysis of inundation due to riverine
flooding (eg from extreme rainfall events).
• The identification of ‘soft’ potentially erodible
shorelines was undertaken using the national
Smartline dataset. Infrastructure located within
110 metres of these ‘soft’ potentially erodible
shorelines was included in this analysis.
• More detailed assessments may change therelative order of local government areas andthe magnitude and timing of projected impacts.
• Replacement values reported in this booklet
are based on 2008 replacement values, as
drawn from Geoscience Australia’s National
Exposure Information System (NEXIS) database.

The results from this assessment are useful at a national
scale and will assist in prioritising future coastal
adaptation planning needs. The available national data
is insufficient to answer all questions underpinning
decision making at local and regional scales.
This assessment focuses on impacts and risk at the endof this century. However, climate change impacts will
not stop then and impacts beyond 2100 will need to
be anticipated in decision making with long horizons.

2

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure

oveRvIew

Key FIndIngS• The exposure of coastal assets to sea level rise associated with climate change is widespread and the hazard
will increase into the future. Exposure will also increase as the population grows.
• Greater than $226 billion in commercial, industrial, road and rail, and residential assets are potentially
exposed to inundation and erosion hazards at a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100).
• Coastal assets at risk from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession include:– Between 5,800 and 8,600 commercial buildings, with a value ranging from $58 to $81 billion(2008 replacement value).
– Between 3,700 and 6,200 light industrial buildings, with a value of between $4.2 and $6.7 billion(2008 replacement value).
– Between 27,000 and 35,000 km of roads and rail, with a value of between $51 and $67 billion(2008 replacement value).
• Decisions about future development, particularly in areas highly exposed to the impacts of climate change,
should not increase risk.
Governments at all levels need to be aware of thepotential future costs of climate change. In particular,
climate change will impact on the frequency andintensity of natural disasters, which currently costaround $1 billion per year on average.1 This could
mean the costs of natural disasters could double ormore in the next few decades. Intervention to constrain
increases in exposure to such hazards would be of
economic and social benefit.

In this analysis only the inundation and erosion
hazards associated with rising sea levels wereconsidered. However, coastal infrastructure is likely
to be exposed to other climate change hazards.
For example, saltwater intrusion may be of particularconcern for the numerous old dump sites and rubbish
tips around the coast, and potential changes in windspeed and extreme storm events could cause damage
or fatigue to structures.

This analysis examines the exposure of coastal
infrastructure (commercial, light industrial, residential
and transport) to inundation and erosion under a sea
level rise scenario of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for2100). A sea level rise of 1.1 metres was combinedwith a 1 in 100 year event for Tasmania, Victoria and
New South Wales. For the other states it is based ona sea level rise scenario of 1.1 metres combined witha very high tide.

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure

Photo credit: Emergency Management Australia

Nationally, the combined value of commercial,light industrial, transport and residential infrastructure
at risk from a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end
scenario for 2100) is greater than $226 billion(upper estimate – 2008 replacement value; figure 1).
Queensland has the greatest combined risk, in termsof both quantity and 2008 replacement value for a sea
level rise of 1.1 metres.

3

Sea level RiseIn recent decades, the rate of increase in sea levelhas been an order of magnitude faster than the
average rate of rise over the previous several
thousand years. From 1993 to 2003 global sea levelrose by about 3.1 mm a year, compared to 1.8 mm
a year when averaged from 1961 to 2003. Global
average sea level rise during the twentieth century
was 1.7 mm a year, which was slightly higher than
the 1.2 mm a year relative rise recorded around
Australia for the period.
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) issued projections in
its Fourth Assessment Report for sea level riseof between 18–59 cm plus an allowance of
10–20 cm for ice sheet dynamics (79 cm) by 2100.2
There is growing consensus in the science communitythat sea level rise at the upper end of the IPCC
estimates is plausible by the end of this century,and that a rise of more than 1.0 metre and as highas 1.5 metres cannot be ruled out. It should also be
noted that sea levels will continue to rise after 2100.
The analysis did not include consideration of criticalinfrastructure such as hospitals, or infrastructure
involved in the delivery of some essential services suchas wastewater systems. Since much of this infrastructure
is concentrated around the coast, it can be expected thatclimate change will have implications for the delivery
of some of these essential services into the future.
The methodology used in this report is the same as thatused in Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast (2009).
A summary of the methodology is provided in the‘Methodology – key points and caveats’ box on page 2.
The analysis of exposure reported in this document
is based on existing infrastructure stock. The impactthat a changing, future population will have on

A sea level rise of 1.1 metres was originallyselected for national risk assessment analysis basedon the plausible range of sea level rise values fromresearch published after the IPCC forth Assessment
Report. While estimates of total sea level riseremain uncertain, nearly all of the uncertainties
in sea level rise projections operate to increase
estimates of sea level rise.

Local sea level rise (mm/year) from the early 1990s to June 2010.
Source: National Tidal Centre 2010

the exposure of coastal residential assets was also
assessed. Based on current patterns of development
the magnitude of risk to coastal assets has the potential
to increase significantly into the future.
Avoidance of future risk is the most cost-effective
adaptation response in most cases. Decisions on future
development, particularly in areas highly exposed tothe impacts of climate change, should not increaserisk. However, as the data presented in this booklet
reveals, there will still be a large legacy risk fromexisting infrastructure in the coastal zone, which will
require attention. Early planning can help to minimise
our future exposure.

Road & RailLight Industrial
Commercial
Residential

Replacement Value ($ billion)

60
50

Lighter bars represent lower
estimates & darker bars
represent upper estimates

40
30
20
10
0
QLD

SA

NSW

WA

VIC

TAS

NT

Figure 1: The combined estimated replacement value ($ billion) for residential, commercial and transport infrastructure for a 1.1 metre sea level rise.

4

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure

RISKS to CommeRCIAl
BuIldIngS

In this analysis, a commercial building is definedas one primarily occupied by businesses engaged incommercial trade, including wholesale, retail, office,and transport activities. The following analysis of
exposure to commercial buildings uses the same
methodology as in the report Climate Change Risks
to Australia’s Coast (2009). A summary of thismethodology is provided on page 2.
Nationally, between 5,800 and 8,600 commercial
buildings in coastal regions are exposed to the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession at asea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100).
The value of these assets is between $58 and $81 billion
dollars (2008 replacement value).
The actual number of businesses exposed may begreater than the number of commercial buildings,
particularly in major commercial centres where there
are large shopping complexes with many businesses
under a single roof.

Victoria and Western Australia have the mostcommercial buildings exposed to a sea level
rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100),with 1,500–2,000 buildings at risk in Victoria
and 1,500–2,100 in Western Australia (Figure 2).
There are also significant numbers of buildings exposedin Queensland (900–1,400), New South Wales(700–1,200) and South Australia (900–1,500).
Replacement values for these assets range from
$22–$27 billion in South Australia; $12–$17 billion
in Western Australia; $10–$15 billion in Queensland;$8–$12 billion in Victoria; and $5–$9 billion in
New South Wales.
The replacement values are calculated based on
information held in the NEXIS database and take
into account the size of exposed buildings, as well
as average replacement values per state or local
government area (where available).
The figures represent the total value of assets at risk,
though it should be noted that the extent of damage
due to flooding would not always, or often, resultin a total replacement of all infrastructure affected.

2500

Number of Commercial Buildings

2100 – Lower Estimate
2100 – Upper Estimate
2000

1500

1000

500

0
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 2: Potential risk to commercial buildings in Australia from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession for a 1.1 metre sea level rise.

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure5

In this analysis, a light industrial building is definedas one primarily used for warehousing, manufacturing,assembly activities and services. The following
analysis of exposure to commercial buildings uses
the same methodology as in the report Climate Change
Risks to Australia’s Coast (2009). A summary of thismethodology is provided on page 2.
Nationally, between 3,700 and 6,200 light industrial
buildings are exposed to the combined impact ofinundation and shoreline recession at a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). The valueof these assets is between $4.2 and $6.7 billion dollars(2008 replacement value).
Queensland has the most light industrial buildings
exposed to a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end
scenario for 2100), with 1,200–1,800 buildings at risk
(Figure 3).

The number of buildings exposed is similar in
New South Wales (600–1,000), Victoria (600–1,000),South Australia (400–1,100) and Western Australia(600–900).
Replacement values for these assets range from
$1.3–$2.0 billion in Queensland; $0.6–$1.2 billion
in South Australia; $0.8–$1.1 billion in New South Wales;$0.7–$1.1 billion in Western Australia; and $0.5–$0.8
billion in Victoria.
The replacement values are calculated based on
information held in the NEXIS database and take
into account the size of exposed buildings, as well
as average replacement values per state or local
government area (where available).
The figures represent the total value of assets at risk,
though it should be noted that the extent of damage
due to flooding would not always, or often, result ina total replacement of all infrastructure affected.

Number of Light Industrial Buildings

2000

2100 – Lower Estimate
2100 – Upper Estimate

1500

1000

500

0
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 3: Potential risk to light industrial buildings in Australia from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession for a sea level riseof 1.1 metres.

6

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure

Photo credit: Port of Melbourne Corporation

RISKS to lIght InduStRIAl
BuIldIngSRISKS to tRAnSpoRt
InFRAStRuCtuRe

Nationally, between 26,000 and 33,000 km of roads
are potentially at risk from the combined impacts ofinundation and shoreline recession for a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100; figures
4 and 5). This figure is made up of 1,100–1,500 km
of freeway, 10,000–13,000 km of main roads and15,000–18,000 km of unsealed roads. This roadway
has a value of between $46 and $60 billion (2008replacement value). While most of the risk is to main
roads, unsealed roads and tracks, the cost to replacefreeway will be higher than replacing the same lengthof other types of road, and disruption to freeways will
have a greater impact on transporting goods and people.
Western Australia has the greatest length of roadway
at risk, with between 7,500 and 9,100 km exposed, at
a replacement value of between $8.7 and $11.3 billion.
Much of the exposure is to unsealed roadway.
Queensland has the greatest value of existing roadinfrastructure at risk, with between $9.7 and $12.9
billion for between 3,600 and 4,700 km of roadway.
Queensland’s higher value relates to the greater percentage
of freeway and main roads at risk in Queensland.

All states, with exception of Tasmania and theNorthern Territory, have an estimated replacement
value of greater than $7 billion.

Freeway – Lower
Freeway – Upper

400
350
300

Length (km)

Roads

250
200
150
100
50
0
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 4: Estimated length of freeway at risk from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession for a 1.1 metre
sea level rise.

10000

Main Roads
Unsealed Roads
Total length

9000
8000

Length (km)

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 5: Estimated length of road infrastructure at risk from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession for a 1.1 metre sea level rise.

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure7

Rail and tramways

Nationally, between 1,200 and 1,500 km of raillines and tramways are potentially at risk frominundation and shoreline recession from a sea level
rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100;
figure 6). These assets have a value of between$4.9 and $6.4 billion (2008 replacement value).
Queensland has the greatest length (between 420 and
570 km) and highest estimated replacement value(between $1.7 and $2.3 billion) for rail and tramway
infrastructure. New South Wales, South Australia
and Tasmania have a replacement value of between$0.6 and $1.3 billion each. Assets exposed in Victoria,
Western Australia and the Northern Territory have areplacement value of between $0.1 and $0.5 billion.

600

2100 – Lower Estimate
2100 – Upper Estimate

500

Length (km)

400

300

200

100

0
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 6: Estimated length of existing rail and tramway infrastructure at risk from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession for a
1.1 metre sea level rise.

The analysis of exposure to road and rail uses the same methodology as in the report Climate Change Risks
to Australia’s Coast (2009). A summary of this methodology is provided on page 2.
The total value and length of road and rail infrastructure indicates a high level of exposure to future climate change
impacts. Impacts to transport networks will also have flow on effects – for emergency evacuation, ability to efficiently
move goods and people and for access to service facilities, such as hospitals. Analysing the implications of disruption
to transport networks and associated services will be an important part of preparing local and regional responses to theimpacts of climate change.
The replacement values are calculated based on information held in the NEXIS database and are based on averagereplacement values per state or local government area (where available).
The figures represent the total value of assets at risk, though it should be noted that the extent of damage due
to flooding would not always, or often, result in a total replacement of all infrastructure affected.

8

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and InfrastructureIn this analysis, a residential building is defined as afixed structure consisting of one or more residences
primarily for housing people. The following analysisof exposure to residential buildings uses the same
methodology as in the report Climate Change Risks
to Australia’s Coast (2009). A summary of thismethodology is provided on page 2.
It should be noted that this analysis considers the
combined exposure to the hazards of inundation andshoreline recession. In the Climate Change Risks toAustralia’s Coasts report the analyses for inundationand erosion were presented separately. The figures
reported here for residential properties will therefore
be different from the figures reported in Climate
Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts.
Nationally, between 187,000 and 274,000 residentialbuildings are exposed to the combined impact ofinundation and shoreline recession at a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). The valueof these assets is between $51 and $72 billion dollars(2008 replacement value). The upper estimate figure isgreater than the $63 billion reported in Climate Change
Risks to Australia’s Coasts, which did not include thevalue of buildings potentially exposed to erosion.

Queensland and New South Wales have the mostresidential buildings exposed to a sea level rise of
1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100), with between
44,000 and 68,000 residential buildings at risk in eachstate (Figure 7).
There are also significant numbers of buildings
exposed in Victoria and South Australia(31,000–48,000 in each state), Western Australia(20,000–30,000), and Tasmania (12,000–15,000).
Replacement values for these assets range from
$15–$20 billion in Queensland; $14–$20 billion
in New South Wales; $8–$11 billion in Victoria;$5–$8 billion in each of South Australia andWestern Australia; and $4 billion in Tasmania(2008 replacement values).
The replacement values are calculated based on
information held in the NEXIS database and are
based on average replacement values per state or
local government area (where available).
The figures represent the total value of assets at risk,
though it should be noted that the extent of damage
due to flooding would not always, or often, result ina total replacement of all infrastructure affected.

80000

Total Number of Residential Buildings

Photo credit: Tobias Lanchenauer

RISKS to ReSIdentIAl
BuIldIngS

2100 – Lower Estimate
2100 – Upper Estimate

70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
QLD

NSW

VIC

SA

WA

TAS

NT

Figure 7: The range of potential risk to residential buildings in Australia for a sea level rise of 1.1 metres.

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure

9

projecting risk against a changing
population
Australia’s population is projected to increasesignificantly between now and 2100. The Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has forecast an increase
from 21 million in 2007 to between 30.9 and 42.5 million
people by 2056, and to between 33.7 and 62.2 million
people by 2101 (see Figure 8).3 The ABS projections
are based on differing assumptions of fertility, mortality,internal migration and overseas migration.
More recently, the Intergenerational Report 2010
projects that Australia’s population will grow by
65 per cent, to more than 35 million people in 2049.4
Based on current trends much of this growth would beaccommodated in coastal settlements and cities.

Figure 8: Population growth projections for Australia 2008–2101.
Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy
at birth, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.
Source: ABS

An analysis of the risk to infrastructure shows how
exposure to climate change impacts for residentialbuildings can change as the population grows (basedon current settlement patterns). Figure 9 shows thenumber of residential buildings exposed to inundationand erosion under a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario
against the 2008 population, the ABS Series A (high),
B (business as usual) and C (low) population scenarios.
The exposure is significantly increased by the ABS
Series A & B population projections. At higher
projected population growth (Series A), the increasein population has a greater impact on the numberof buildings at risk than the increase in sea level.

250000

Number of Buildings at Risk

2008 Population
Series C (low)200000

Series B (business as usual)
Series A (high)150000100000

50000

0
Lower

Upper

QLD

Lower

Upper

NSW

Lower

Upper

Lower

VIC

Upper

SA

Lower

Upper

WA

Lower

Upper

TAS

Lower

Upper

NT

Figure 9: The range of potential risk to residential buildings in Australia for a sea level rise of 1.1 metres for the 2008 population and also for the
ABS Series A, B & C population projections.

References
1

Bureau of Transport Economics 2001, Economic costs of natural disasters
in Australia. Report 103, Canberra.

3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2008, Population Projections, Australia,
2006-2101, catalogue no. 3222.0.

2Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report(AR4, 2007).

4

Commonwealth Treasury 2010, Intergenerational Report 2010, Australia
to 2050: future challenges, http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/
html/00_Preliminaries.asp.

10

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and InfrastructureAnalysis by local government area – western Australia
light Industrial Buildings

150
100

ur
y

-E
a

st

C

oo

nb

ss
Bu

Bu

la
n
ed
rt
H
Po

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yn

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ro
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0

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Bu

western Australia

50

rle
y

100

200

be

200

Upper

e

300

250

m

400

Lower

Ki
m

500

300

Br
oo

Upper

d

No. of Commercial Buildings

No. of Light Industrial Buildings

Lower

600

el
to
n

Commercial Buildings

Figure 10: Potential risk to commercial buildings in Western Australia
from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by
local government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 11: Potential risk to light industry in Western Australia fromthe combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Between 333 and 496 commercial buildings in thelocal government area of Bunbury may be affectedby a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario for2100). The number of exposed commercial buildingsin Mandurah (between 242 and 400) and Busselton(between 209 and 260) is also high compared to other
Western Australian local government areas. The graphshows the location of more than 85% of the potentiallyaffected commercial buildings in Western Australia,
as identified in this analysis.

Between 176 and 252 light industrial buildings in
the local government areas of Port Hedland andBusselton may be affected by a 1.1 metre sea level
rise (high end scenario for 2100). The number ofbuildings in Broome (between 149 and 183) is alsohigh. The graph shows the location of more than 90%of the potentially affected light industrial buildings
in Western Australia, as identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail

Upper

10
5

y
ur
nb
Bu

an
in

ur

ed
H
rt
Po

Kw

ne

d
la
n

am

dh
W
yn

Figure 12: Potential risk to roads in Western Australia from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

a

0

-E

Sh

e

ar d
k
As Ba
as hb yt K urim ton
R ber
oe le
bo y
Bu urn
D
er
ss e
by
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-W
to
es Exm ntK o
im uth
be
rle
y

la
n

ed

H

rt

Po

C

ar

na

rv

m
oo
Br

on

0

15

bo

500

20

oe

1,000

Upper

25
Length (km)

1,500

Lower

R

2,000
Length (km)

30

Lower

2,500

Figure 13: Potential risk to rail in Western Australia from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Broome (between 1,903 and 2,056 km at risk), Carnarvon (between
794 and 929 km) and Port Hedland (between 562 and 685 km) have a significant exposure with a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). Between 285 and 348 km of roads in the local government areasof Ashburton, Wyndham-East Kimberley and Busselton are also exposed with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres.
Port Hedland has the greatest length of rail exposed, with between 23 and 28 km of rail line at risk. The graphs
show the location of about 80% of the potentially affected roads and about 80% of the potentially affected railin Western Australia, as identified in this analysis.
Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure11Analysis by local government area – South Australia

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800

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Lower

500

Figure 14: Potential risk to commercial buildings in South Australia
from the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by
local government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 15: Potential risk to light industry in South Australia fromthe combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Between 200 and 692 light industrial buildings in thelocal government area of Port Adelaide Enfield may
be affected by a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end
scenario for 2100). The number of exposed buildingsin Holdfast Bay (between 118 and 121) is also highcompared to other South Australian local government
areas. The graph shows the location of about 95%of the potentially affected light industrial buildings
in South Australia, as identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail
Lower

60

Lower

Upper

50

Upper

Length (km)

40
30
20
10

ry
bu
lis

ni

nc

or

Sa

d
te
ra

po

em
R
U

nt
ou
M

SA

le
ar

Au

ka
b

st
a
gu

is
ts

rt

ity
C
rie

Pi

Po

an

d

En
de
ai
el
Ad
rt

Po

U

Po

ke

Figure 16: Potential risk to roads in South Australia from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

D

fie

ld

0

rt

T ni
ni he nsu
nc Co la
or
o
po ro
Po
ra ng
rt
t
Pi
ed
ri
Po e C Kin SAgitrt
Ad y an ston
el d
ai
D
de is
En ts
f
C ie
C ed ld
ha u
rl na
St es Sreak turt
y
Ba
y
R
ob
e

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Pe

Length (km)Between 265 and 506 commercial buildings in the local
government area of Port Adelaide Enfield may be affectedby a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario for 2100).
The number of exposed commercial buildings in Port
Pirie (between 92 and 171), Charles Sturt (between 87
and 141) and Port Augusta (between 60 and 134) is alsohigh compared to other South Australian local government
areas. The graph shows the location of about 80%of the potentially affected commercial buildings
in South Australia, as identified in this analysis.

YorSouth Australia

No. of Commercial Buildings

600

light Industrial Buildings
No. of Light Industrial Buildings

Commercial Buildings

Figure 17: Potential risk to rail in South Australia from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Yorke Peninsula (between 670 and 765 km at risk) and The Coorong (between
595 and 730 km) have a significant exposure with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). Between
160 and 269 km of roads in the local government areas Port Adelaide Enfield and Charles Sturt are also exposed witha sea level rise of 1.1 metres. Port Adelaide Enfield has the greatest length of rail exposed, with between 38 and 48 kmof rail line at risk. The graphs show the location of about 75% of the potentially affected roads and about 80% of thepotentially affected rail in South Australia, as identified in this analysis.
12

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and InfrastructureAnalysis by local government area – tasmania
Commercial Buildings

light Industrial Buildings

60

Lower

80

Lower

Upper

70

Upper

No. of Light Industrial Buildings

50
40
30
20
10

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

oa
tra
l

C

ob
H

tasmania

st

ar
t

st
on

C

en

La

G

H

eo

un

rg
e

Bu

rn
i

To
w

e

n

e
rn
i
Bu

uo

n

H

Va
l

ob

le

y

ar
t

0

ce

No. of Commercial Buildings

70

Figure 18: Potential risk to commercial buildings in Tasmania fromthe combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 19: Potential risk to light industry in Tasmania from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Between 63 and 71 light industrial buildings in the local
government area of Burnie may be affected by a 1.1 metre
sea level rise (high end scenario for 2100). The numberof exposed buildings in Launceston (between 33 and62) is also high. The graph shows the location of
about 80% of the potentially affected light industrial
buildings in Tasmania, as identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail

300

Lower

250

Upper

200

Length (km)

150
100
50

h

oa

G

la

d

W
ar

at

ah

lC
tra
C

en

D

m

/W
yn
ya
r

st

rt
po
on

ng

Bu

bo

rn
i

e

ro

le
Va
l

Ki

n
uo
H

Upper

ug

y

ay
'D
O

ak

Br
e

C

la

re

nc

e

d
ea
H

g

ul
ar

C

irc

rin

or

ga

n/

Sp

Fl

in
d

er

Ba
y

s

0

Lower

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

ev

Length (km)Between 35 and 65 commercial buildings in the local
government area of Huon Valley and between 56 and58 commercial buildings in Hobart may be affected by
a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario for 2100).
The graph shows the location of nearly 80% of thepotentially affected commercial buildings in Tasmania,
as identified in this analysis.

Figure 20: Potential risk to roads in Tasmania from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 21: Potential risk to rail in Tasmania from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Flinders (between 222 and 266 km at risk) and Glamorgan/Spring Bay(between 211 and 243 km) have a significant exposure with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for2100). Burnie has the greatest length of rail exposed, with between 42 and 46 km of rail line at risk. The graphs
show the location of about 70% of the potentially affected road and about 85% of the potentially affected rail in
Tasmania, as identified in this analysis.

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure13Analysis by local government area – victoria
light Industrial Buildings

450

Lower

400

Upper

350
300
250
200
150
100
50

No. of Light Industrial Buildings

400

Lower

350

Upper

300
250
200
150
100
50

0

ns
so
ob

Pe
to
n

M

or
ni

G

ng

H

ni

ng

ns

Ba

y

ul
a

st
on

to
n

Ki

G
te
r
re
a

M

ks

lo
n
ee

ps

ip

G

Ea

Figure 22: Potential risk to commercial buildings in Victoria fromthe combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 23: Potential risk to light industry in Victoria from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Between 347 and 417 commercial buildings in the local
government area of Surf Coast may be affected by
a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario for 2100).
The number of exposed commercial buildings in East
Gippsland (between 374 and 384) and Maribyrnong(between 242 and 347) is also high compared to otherlocal government areas in Victoria. The graph shows thelocation of 95% of the potentially affected commercial
buildings in Victoria, as identified in this analysis.

Between 290 and 374 light industrial buildings in
the local government area of Greater Geelong may
be affected by a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end
scenario for 2100). The number of exposed buildings
in Frankston (between 152 and 280) and Kingston(between 79 and 132) is also high compared to otherlocal government areas in Victoria. The graph shows
the location of more than 90% of the potentiallyaffected light industrial buildings in Victoria, as
identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail
Lower
Upper

45

Lower

40

Upper

35
Length (km)

30
25
20
15
10
5

as
ey

Ba
ns
ob

so

C

y

a
ni
di
ar
H

M

G

el
bo

re

at

ur
ne

0

C

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

W
el
l
er ingt
Ea G on
st ee
G lon
ip
ps g
l
Ki andng
stSo
ut Ca on
h
r
G din
ip
ps ia
la
nd
H
ob Ca
so se
ns y
Ba
M y
oy
G ne
le
ne
lg

Length (km)victoria

st

Su

rf
C

oa

g

st
la
ar
nd
ib
yr
no
ng
Ki
ng
M
st
or
o
ni
Fr
ng
an n
to
k
st
n
on
P
G
re enin
at
s
er
ul
a
G
ee
l
Po ongrtPhilMel lipboHuobrs o ne
ns
Ba
y

0

Fr
an

No. of Commercial Buildings

Commercial Buildings

Figure 24: Potential risk to roads in Victoria from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 25: Potential risk to rail in Victoria from the combined impact
of inundation and shoreline recession by local government area for a
1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Wellington (between 640 and 775 km at risk), Greater Geelong (between
382 and 457 km) and East Gippsland (between 376 and 417 km) have a significant exposure with a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). Between 165 and 226 km of roads in the local government areas ofKingston and Cardinia are also exposed with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres. The City of Melbourne has the greatest
length of rail exposed, with between 27 and 39 km of rail line at risk. The graphs show the location of about 80%of the potentially affected road and about 75% of the potentially affected rail in Victoria, as identified in this analysis.
14

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and InfrastructureAnalysis by local government area – new South wales

250

light Industrial Buildings
No. of Light Industrial Buildings

Lower
Upper

150
100
50

Lower

160

Upper

140
120
100
80
60
40
20

rla
nd
W Sh
ire
ol
lo
ng
on
R
g
Po ock
da
rt
St
l
ep e
he
ns
W
yo
ng
La
G
ke os
f
o
M
ac rd
qu
ar
ie

ur

ew

lh

Su

th
e

Sh

el

lh

el

Bo

ca

ar
bo

en
ar
bo
ur
ta
ny
Ba
y
G
os
fo
Be
ga rd
Va
G
lle
re
y
at
La
ke
s

ar
ie

av

lh

oa

Sh

Sh

la
al

qu

od

ac
M

ro
b
La

Eu

ke

g

st
le

ca

on
ng

ew

lo

N

W
ol

st
le

0

0

N

No. of Commercial Buildings

200

180

new South wales

Commercial Buildings

Figure 26: Potential risk to commercial buildings in New South Walesfrom the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by
local government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 27: Potential risk to light industry in New South Wales fromthe combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Between 153 and 203 commercial buildings in thelocal government area of Wollongong may be affectedby a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario for2100). The number of exposed commercial buildings
in Newcastle (between 72 and 158), Eurobodalla(between 118 and 140), Lake Macquarie (between 59
and 108) and Shoalhaven (between 66 and 95) is alsohigh compared to other local government areas in New
South Wales. The graph shows the location of about
75% of the potentially affected commercial buildings
in New South Wales, as identified in this analysis.

Between 110 and 157 light industrial buildings in thelocal government area of Shellharbour may be affectedby a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario
for 2100). The number of exposed buildings in
Newcastle (between 89 and 136) and Sutherland
Shire (between 81 and 120) is also high comparedto other local government areas in New South Wales.
The graph shows the location of more than 80%of the potentially affected light industrial buildings
in New South Wales, as identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail
Lower
Upper

50

Upper

Length (km)

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

40
30
20
10
0

Sh

oa

lh

av

en

am
a
Ki

on
W
ol

lo

ng

st
ca
ew
N

Figure 28: Potential risk to roads in New South Wales from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

g

le

C

la
re
n
Po ce
rt ValSt leye
Sh pheoa ns
Gre lhaat veen
G r Tareat ree
La
Po
Ke ke
rt
m s
M
ps
ac
e
qu
ar
Tw y
ie
e
La -H
e
ke as dM ting
ac
s
W qua
ol
r
lo ie
ng
on
g

Length (km)

60
Lower

Figure 29: Potential risk to rail in New South Wales from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Clarence Valley (between 285 and 443 km at risk), Port Stephens (between
275 and 345 km) and Shoalhaven (between 289 and 344 km) have a significant exposure with a sea level riseof 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). Between 210 and 332 km of roads in the local government areas ofGreater Taree and Great Lakes are also exposed with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres. Newcastle (between 49 and 56 kmof rail line at risk) and Wollongong (between 43 and 51 km) have the greatest length of rail exposed. The graphs
show the location of about 80% of the potentially affected roads and nearly 75% of the potentially affected rail in
New South Wales, as identified in this analysis.
Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure15

Analysis by local government area – Queensland
Commercial Buildings

light Industrial Buildings
Lower

200
150
100
50

Lower

600
No. of Light Industrial Buildings

Upper

250

Upper

500
400
300
200
100
0

M
a
or cka
et
on y
B
Br ay
is
b
G
ol anedC
To oastw
ns
Bu vi
nd lleRoc abkh erga
Fr mp
at
Su ser on
ns Co
hine ast
W Co
a
hi
ts st
un
da
y

oa

st

er
g

C

ab
Su

ns

hi

M

ne

nd
Bu

ac

ka

y

lle
M

ns

oa
C

vi

st
To
w

y
Ba

er
Fr
as

or
et
on
M

G

ol

d

C

oa

st

0

Figure 30: Potential risk to commercial buildings in Queenslandfrom the combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by
local government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Figure 31: Potential risk to light industry in Queensland from the
combined impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local
government area for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Commercial buildings in the local government areas ofGold Coast (between 166 and 243), Moreton Bay (between
155 and 226) and Fraser Coast (between 167 and 213) may
be affected by a 1.1 metre sea level rise (high end scenario
for 2100). The number of exposed commercial buildings in
Townsville (between 117 and 199) and Mackay (between
95 and 193) is also high compared to other local government
areas in Queensland. The graph shows the locationof nearly 90% of the potentially affected commercial
buildings in Queensland, as identified in this analysis.

Between 336 and 502 light industrial buildings in the local
government area of Mackay may be affected by a 1.1 metre
sea level rise (high end scenario for 2100). The numberof exposed buildings in Moreton Bay (between 156 and250) and Brisbane (between 160 and 247) is also highcompared to other local government areas in Queensland.
The graph shows the location of more than 95% of
the potentially affected light industrial buildings inQueensland, as identified in this analysis.

Roads

Rail
120
Lower

100

Length (km)Upper

Figure 32: Potential risk to roads in Queensland from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Lower
Upper

80
60
40
20
0

Bu
rd
ek
in
M
ac
Bu ka
R nda yoc
kh berga
W mp
Su hit tons su n
hi nd
ne ay
C
To oa
w st
ns
vi
lle
Is
aa
c
C
H
a
in
ch irn
in s
br
oo
k

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Fr Ma
as ck
er ay
G Coa
o
R ld C st
oc
kh oa
s
M amp t
or
t
o
et
on n
B
Bu ay
rd
Bu ek
nd in
a
To be
w rg
n
s
C
Su arp ville
ns en
t
hi
ne ariaC
oa
st

Length (km)Queensland

No. of Commercial Buildings

300

Figure 33: Potential risk to rail in Queensland from the combined
impact of inundation and shoreline recession by local governmentarea for a 1.1 metre sea level rise scenario.

Roads in the local government areas of Mackay and Fraser Coast (between 352 and 475 km at risk in each area),
Gold Coast (between 301 and 408 km), and Rockhampton (between 305 and 395 km) have a significant exposure
with a sea level rise of 1.1 metres (high end scenario for 2100). Burdekin has the greatest length of rail exposed,with between 78 and 104 km of rail line at risk. Between 33 and 69 km of rail lines in the local government
areas of Mackay, Bundaberg, Rockhampton and Whitsunday are also exposed. The graphs show the locationof more than 90% of the potentially affected roads and nearly 90% of the potentially affected rail in Queensland,
as identified in this analysis.
16

Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure