Ex-post Monitoring of Completed ODA Loan Project
Thailand“Track Rehabilitation Project (1)-(3)”External Evaluator: George Terahara, International Development Center of Japan, Inc.
1. Project Description

Map of the Project Area

Rehabilitated Section(Near Lop Buri Station, Northern Line)

1.1 Project Objective
The objective of this project is to promote the safetyof operation of railway trains and reduce maintenanceand management costs by refurbishing a total of
791km of railway tracks on both the Northern andSouthern lines of State Railway of Thailand (SRT) andthereby contribute to the development of the economyof Thailand by strengthening and maintaining therailway transport capacity in Thailand.

-1-1.2 Outline of the Loan Agreement
Approved Amount/(1)10,331 million yen / 10,174 million yen

Disbursed Amount(2) 7,651 million yen / 6,905 million yen(3) 7,973 million yen / 6,792 million yen(Additional Funding ) 2,979 million yen / 2,428 million yen

Loan Agreement Signing(1) January 1993 / November 2001

Date / Final Disbursement(2) September 1994 / July 2003

Date(3) September 1996 / January 2004
(Additional Funding) July 1998 / September 2001

Ex-Post Evaluation

Fiscal 2005

Executing Agency

State Railway of Thailand (SRT)

Main Contractor

Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Japan), John Holland Asia Ltd. (HongKong)/ Namprasert Construction Co., Ltd.(Thailand) (JV),
Sumitomo Corporation (Japan), Barclay Mowlem
Construction Limited (Australia).

Main Consultant

National Engineering Consultations Co., Ltd.(Thailand),STS
Engineering Consultations Co., Ltd. (Thailand),Japan
Transportation Consultants, Inc. (Japan),Pacific Consultants
International (Japan) (JV), Ocean Consultant Japan Co., Ltd.

1.3 Background of Ex-post Monitoring
Centering on Bangkok, Thailand’s capital, the SRT’s railway lines radiate outwards to connect
to nationwide destinations. However, apart from the railway line covering Bangkok and its
surrounding areas, the tracks are single and non-electrified with a gauge width of 1,000mm.
Furthermore, decades have passed since the tracks were first laid and aging and deterioration areconspicuous. Frequent breakdowns of rails have happened since 1984 and caused interruptions toservices by which the railway fell into a serious situation.
This project refurbished a total of 791km of major rail lines on the Northern Line (Bangkok Chiang Mai) and Southern Line (Bangkok - Malaysia Border) and was conducted in three phasesfrom 1993 to 2004.
According to the ex-post evaluation conducted in Fiscal Year 2005, this project brought aboutboth tangible and intangible benefits for the railway’s operation, but the positive effects werelimited to the refurbished segments of the railway only. In addition, the contribution to enhancing
operational efficiency and to development of the SRT was limited.
In addition, the ex-post evaluation pointed out that SRT needed to promote an increase in farerevenue and enhance management by improving marketing and passenger service since SRT waschronically in debt both at the time of loan approval and ex-post evaluation.
-2-

As such, the following recommendations were made upon ex-post evaluation in order toachieve better results considering cost versus effects and demand for railway travel:(1) Refurbishment of tracks of the remaining sections,(2) Improvement of related facilities such as signals and branch lines, and(3) Construction of double railway track, etc.
Therefore, this project was selected for ex-post monitoring and reviewed under each criterionwith the findings from the field survey and other research activities with a final conclusion being
drawn.

2. Outline of the Monitoring Study
2.1 Duration of the Monitoring Study
Duration of the Monitoring Study: April 2011 to February 2012
Duration of the Field Survey: July18 to August 6, 2011
2.2 Constraints of the Monitoring Survey
None

3. Monitoring Results
3.1 Effectiveness3.1.1 Quantitative Effects
3.1.1.1 Effects of Track Rehabilitation(1) Number of Operation Delays due to Rail Breakdowns
Although the rails had broken down frequently before the project, the number of breakdowns
greatly decreased with the completion of the project. There were no accidents attributed to rail
breakdown on the refurbished sections (at the time of ex-post evaluation in 2006). Afterward,
although no accident had been reported on the Northern Line, four accidents were confirmed at
the 518km point on the Southern Line.
(2) Number of Derailment Accidents due to Rail Breakdowns
No derailment accident was reported in the past three years at the time of ex-post evaluation in
2006, and no accidents were reported at the time of this monitoring. However, at some grade
crossings on refurbished sections, six to twelve collisions with automobiles occurred annually.
(3) Travel Time on Refurbished Sections
Table 1 shows the travel time on refurbished sections based on the timetable. It indicates aslight decrease refurbished sections of the Northern Line, but increases in other sections.
Especially, large increases were observed for freight trains. SRT explained that the increased time-3-

due to the train diagram which prioritizes passenger trains rather than freight trains on single track
sections.
Table 1: Average Travel Time on Refurbished Sections
Train
Type
SectionNorthern Line： Lop Buri～ Passenger
Pitsanulok 256 km
Freight
Southern Line: Hua Hin～
Passenger
Thung Song 535 km
Freight

2001
2006
BeforeEx-postProject
Evaluation
2:48
3:02
3:34
3:27
8:50
7:13
10:38
8:50

Unit: hour:minute2011
Change from 2006
Ex-postto 2011
Monitoring
3:00
-0:02
8:09
4:42
7:36
0:23
15:20
6:30

Source: SRT data
3.1.1.2 Reduction of Operation and Maintenance Cost
The maintenance cost of rail tracks is shown in Table 2 according to SRT. Considering total
refurbished length of 791km, the total savings in 2010 will be 127 million baht compared to thecost before the Project in 2001.
Table 2: Track Maintenance CostYear

Before Rehabilitation

Track Maintenance
Cost
Source: SRT data

23.6

Unit: Baht 10,000/km/year
At Ex-post Evaluation At Ex-post Monitoring(2006)(2011)
8.3
7.49

3.1.1.4 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Since IRR was not calculated at the time of ex-post evaluation, this monitoring survey does notcover this item.
3.1.2 Qualitative Effects
According to SRT, this Project increased users’ confidence in punctuality and safety andenhanced comfort of railways.
The above facts reflecting some positive outcomes, such as a decreased number of railway
accidents due to rail breakdowns and a short-term reduction in operation and maintenance costs,
were mostly observed in 2011 just as they were at the time of ex-post evaluation in 2006.
Meanwhile, travel time increased from that at the time of ex-post evaluation due to single track,
grade crossing and train diagram issues.

-4-3.2 Impact
3.2.1 Intended Impact
3.2.1.1 Passengers Transport Volume and Reliance on Railway
Impact indicators which were identified at the time of ex-post evaluation were reviewed toassess the current situation. These indicators, shown in Table 3 to 5, are not those of the Projecttarget (791 km; 19.6% of total line distance), but all across Thailand (total operating distance of
4,043 km).
As Table 3 shows, the number of first-class passengers rapidly increased from 1993 to 2004
and remained almost unchanged, and slightly decreased from 2004 to 2009. On the other hand,the number of third-class passengers decreased from 1993 to 2004, but increased afterward up to
2009. Although the third-class fare is kept low due to government regulations, SRT shifted thefocus on ticket sales to first and second class passengers, where additional fares can be applied.
In addition, first and second class passengers tend to travel much longer than third classpassengers in terms of passenger-km (Table 4) and average travel distance per passenger (Table 5).
A travel distance of 600~700km is close to the distance between Chiang Mai and Bangkok(751km) and which entails overnight sleeper service. This implies most first and second classpassengers ride long distances between metropolitan areas. Thus, despite the competition withbus transport and civil aviation, long distance passenger transport on SRT is considered tomaintain comparative advantages. Meanwhile, urban rail transport, which is not directly operated
by SRT, has been developed in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area and the urban rail service wasreevaluated in terms of mitigating traffic jams, punctuality and speed.
Table 3: Number of Passengers on SRT
Unit: 1,000 persons
Year

1993
(Before Project)First Class
Second Class
Third Class
Total
Total Transportation
Volume of Domestic
Public Transportation
Railway Share2004(After Project)

2009

18
4,532
69,76375,053
1,477,792

124
4,391
41,68846,203
821,514

121
3,788
43,57747,486
N/A

5.0%

5.6%

N/A

Increase/
Decrease (%)(2004-2009)
-2.4
-13.7
4.5
2.8

Source: SRT data
Table 4: SRT Passenger Volume (Person per Kilometer)
Year

First Class
Second Class

1993(Before Project)
13,4512,926,622

2004(After Project)
88,8912,732,556-5-

Annually: 1,000 person/km
Increase/Decrease(%)(2004-2009)
86,071-3.2
2,383,309
-12.8

2009

Third Class
Total

10,762,444
14,020,975

6,460,886
9,282,333

6,355,311
8,824,691

-1.6
-4.9

Source: SRT data
Table 5: Average Travel Distance per Passenger
Year

1993
(Before Project)First Class
Second Class
Third Class
Total

2004
(After Project)
747
646
154
187

717
622
155
201

2009

711
629
146
186

Unit: km/person
Increase/Decrease(%)(2004-2009)
-0.8
1.1
-5.9
-7.5

Source: SRT data
3.2.1.2 Freight Transport Volume and Reliance on Railway
Since the 1990s, truck transportation has dominated the domestic freight transportation market(ton base), and accounted for 88% of share in 2003 (Table 6), while, rail transportation accounted
for only 2% of the total amount.
As for heavy freight transportation, from the political viewpoint of transport efficiency andenvironmental issues, the Ministry of Transportation (MOT) promoted a modal shift programfrom truck transportation to railway and shipping. However, the program did not result in asignificant recovery of rail transportation.
Table 6: Freight Transportation Volume and SRT’s Share
Unit: 1,000 ton
Year

1993
(Before Project)

2003(After Project)

Total Domestic
Transportation

364,134

500,308

Road Transportation

316,134

440,018

Rail Transportation
Railway Share

7,477

11,4562.1%

2009

11,505

Increase/
Decrease (%)(2003-2009)

0.40%

2.3%

Source: SRT data
3.2.2 Other Impacts
3.2.2.1 Impact on Natural Environment
According to SRT, this Project refurbished existing railway tracks completely, while reducing
noise for passengers and neighborhoods along rail lines.
3.2.2.2 Resettlement and Land Acquisition
This project utilized existing right-of-way railroad land and there was no new resettlement orland acquisition during its construction.
-6-

These facts reveal that the track refurbishment done through this project has not resulted in asignificant increase in total passenger or freight transportation volume on railways, this ispartially due to the recent boom in Thailand of private ownership of automobiles. This situation issimilar as at the time of ex-post evaluation.
3.3. Sustainability
3.3.1 Structural Aspect of Operation and Maintenance
Currently, the Ministry of Transport (MOT) has not been examining a privatization scheme for
SRT and SRT continues to be operated as a state-owned enterprise. SRT clarifies responsibility for
track maintenance for each local railway bureau and maintains track maintenance programs
comprised of four levels, operation and maintenance structure is judged to have no problems.
3.3.2 Technical Aspect of Operation and Maintenance
Project Completion Report (PCR) and SRT state that operation and maintenance manuals havebeen prepared, which specify measure to be taken depending on level of wear damage. Railway
maintenance workers are employed by SRT and trained regularly to maintain technical skills.
3.3.3 Financial Aspect of Operation and Maintenance
MOT budgets funds for SRT (Table 7) and provides annual maintenance costs (Baht 9.3 billion
in fiscal year 2010 budget) to SRT (Table 8). Meanwhile, the Cabinet decides implementation of
new projects (Table 9).
Table 7: Budget of MOT
Mode

FY2009（Actual）
THB mil.

Department

FY2010（Budget）
THB mil.

Road Transport
Department of Highways（DOH）
40,511
26,672
Department of Regional Roads（DRR)
22,36916,895
Department of Land Transport （DLT)
2,333
2,238
Express Authority of Thailand (EXAT)
9,419
7,036
Bangkok Metropolitan Transit
Authority
35
Railway Transportation
SRT
9,843
9,335
Mass Rapid Transit Authority(MRTA)
7,919
6,526
Water Transportation
Maritime Department
3,732
3,557
Civil Aviation
Department of Aviation
923
909
Civil Aviation Training center
126
197
Policy and Planning
Others336
341
Office of Transport Policy andPlanning
489
576
Total
98,00074,317
Source：MOT.
Note: Thai fiscal years start in October and end in September.

-7-

Portion tototal budget
(%)
35.9
22.7
3
9.5
0
12.6
8.8
4.8
1.2
0.3
0.5
0.8
100

As for management reform of SRT as a whole, no drastic improvement to increase theoperating revenue from railways has been made and SRT annually posts ordinary loss even after
government subsidies (Table 8). On the other hand, SRT accelerated reforming of its structure andAirport – Rail Link is operated by its subsidiary. In addition, SRT reformed itself by increasing
non-operating revenue from alternate sources such as real estate and installation of optical fiber
cable. SRT also established a Marketing Department in an effort promote its services and increase
the number of passengers and freight volume.
The Thai Cabinet approved new projects in April 2010 (Table 9).
-Track Rehabilitation Project Phase 5-6, Bridge Improvement Project (2010-2014)-Telecommunications Network Project, Crossing Safety Project, Colored signal lights Project,
and Rail Line Protective Fencing Project (2010-2014)-Track Doubling Project (767km; there is no implementation plan on Northern and SouthernLines except Bangkok and its suburbs.)
The above Track Rehabilitation Projects followed Project Phases 1-3. Phase 4 was conducted
to refurbish a 227km section of Northern and Southern Lines using Thai government funding.
Phase 5 and 6 are to be implemented on 308km (North-eastern Line, 2010-2013) and 278km(North-eastern Line, 2010-2013) respectively.
Phase 4-6 correspond to ex-post evaluation Recommendation (1) Refurbishment of tracks of
the remaining sections, Recommendation (2) improvement of related facilities such as signals andbranch lines, and Recommendation (3) construction of double railway track are being
implemented as part of he above new projects.
These facts indicate SRT is receiving continual government revenue support for current
expenses and investment costs. Although SRT is trying to increase non-operational revenue
from sources other than railways, it has not improved management drastically, resulting in a final
deficit. In addition, the final loss is increasing recently. However, as long as government support
continues, there will be little financial problem for operation and maintenance.

-8-

Table 8 Profit and Loss Statement of SRT
Unit: Million Baht
Item
Revenues
Traffic revenues
Property revenues
Fibre optic cable transmission system
Concession fares from the government
Compensation from the government
Other revenues
Total operating revenues
Expenses
Maintenance of way & signalling andcommunication
Maintenance of locomotive and rollingstock
Traffic and transportation
General expenses
OthersTotal operating expenses
Profit(Loss) from operating
Other income
Land deed compensation
Profit from sales of property
Total income
Other Expenses
Pension expenses
Pension reserves
Depreciation
Financial expense
Devaluation of investment
Loss (Profit) on writing off assets
Loss (Profit) from foreign exchange
Loss on writing off materials and supplies
Total expenses
Net Profit (Loss) for the year

Fiscal Year
2005
2006

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2007

5,558
553
870
80
474
7,535

5,668
615
895
68
590
7,835

5,816
692
921
57
6
571
8,064

6,080
977
943
60
594
8,653

6,108
885
955
59
641
8,647

5,976
952
746
57
63
696
8,489

6,305
1,086
689
52
115
720
8,967

6,370
1,042
759
50
69
750
9,040

1,736

1,730

1,802

1,337

1,139

1,163

1,294

1,332

1,838
4,186
506
8,266
-731

1,993
4,539
494
8,756
-921

1,961
4,577
540
8,879
-815

1,978
4,744
574
8,633
20

1,941
4,938
544
8,562
85

2,110
5,449
690
9,412
-923

2,016
6,571
615
47
10,542-1,575

2,267
6,399
562
10
10,571-1,531

278
0
278

526
-4
523

124
22
145

194
11
206

10
10

5
32
37

1,995

1,499
1,217
1,634
22
4
525
0
4,901
-5,354

1,688
1,324
1,863
0
-500
0
4,376
-4,773

1,759
1,373
1,987
-1
-421
4
4,700
-5,370

1,842
271
1,366
2,039
0
304
30
5,852
-5,627

1,924
1,364
1,867
1,959
1
795
-1
7,909
-7,814

2,076
387
1,708
1,779
4
-454
2
5,502
-6,388

2,399
404
1,830
1,855
60
-0
274
6,822
-6,403

2008

2009

6,591

6,398

2,058

2,055

8,649

8,453

N/A

N/A

11,649-3,00010,956-2,503

1,088

-

0

0

2,525
739
1,701
2,168
9
3
276
7,422
-7,864

3,220
1,639
2,504
-158
7,205
-10,205

3,683
1,980
2,495
-425
7,733
-10,236

Source: SRT data
3.3.4 Current Status of Operation and MaintenanceAccording to on-site inspection and SRT, the tracks have been operated and maintained
properly without any specific problem.
The above facts show that there is no major concern on sustainability of the Project, because
the government decided to provide financial support to SRT for current expenses and investment
costs going forward. The local railway bureaus of SRT have maintained necessary technical skill
levels for operation and maintenance of rail tracks.

4. Conclusion, Lessons Learned and Recommendations
4.1 Conclusion
This Track Rehabilitation Project achieved initial targets of reduction of train accidents andreduction of operation and maintenance costs. However, due to the single track and stagnant
railway passenger demand, the long term impact on the railway business of SRT is limited andany ripple effect on the Thai economy is unclear.
-9-

SRT’s chronic deficit, pointed out by the ex-post evaluation, remains unchanged and SRT
needs to continuously strive for management improvement to recover from chronic deficit.
Recommendations (1) to (3) made by ex-post evaluation have been completed or are still inprogress as described above.
4.2 Recommendation
4.2.1 Recommendation to SRT
The Project led to a reduction in the number of accidents due to rail breakdown, and a reduction
in operation and maintenance costs. In order to sustain the effects, it is desired that the operational
lifetime of rail be prolonged by establishing a more detailed maintenance system. For example,
they are recommended to check tracks more frequently using an automatic testing train in order tooperate trains more smoothly and to improve on points such as avoidance of sudden speed
reduction or acceleration. Although the frequency of checks depends on how much tonnage has
passed on a track, four times a year is considered ideal.
4.2.2 Recommendation to MOT and Thai Government
It is recommended that budget for SRT’s current expenses and investment cost continue to be
secured.
4.3 Lessons Learned
None

-10-

-117,860
11,64013,01016,60017,000
6,563
3,360
4,981
6,066
2,200
89,280176,808

8,508
6,779
11,3482,145
23,671
12,167
11,358
5,456
4,446
1,010
4,737
1,000
360
87,529Budget

40
40
40
40
40
90
68
90
Local
Local

12
Local
Local
Local
Local

50
50
40
90
41
35
45

ForeignContent
2010

56
664
13,883

13

90
135
120
130
120

195
4,737
1,599
433
877
809
68
1,005
18
60
13,219

2,369
1,926

2011

10
10
10
10
10
592
216
451
2,000
876
4,185
39,669300
35,484

3,725
3,028
2,940
3
14,693
3,463
2,167
1,434
1,189
245
3,732

2,586
3,831
4,293
5,486
5,623
863
2,580
4,081
2,000
1,268
32,611
57,07024,459

583

2,173
1,766
3,363
1,947
4,241
3,139
5,466
1,782
1,085
697

29,402
41,786

2,586
3,831
4,293
5,486
5,623
4,518
551
448
2,066

12,384

400

3,966
3,292
1,363
1,363

3,363

Disbursement Plan (Fiscal Year)
2012
2013
2014

22,41824,099

2,588
3,833
4,294
5,624
591

1,682

1,682

2015

7,860
11,64013,01016,60017,000
6,563
3,360
4,981
6,066
2,200
89,280176,307

8,266
6,720
11,3482,145
23,671
12,167
11,358
5,456
4,446
4,010
4,737
1,000
360
87,228Total

State Railway of Thailand - Budget Plan for Infrastructure - Urgent Period 2010-2014(According to Cabinet Resolution Dated 27 April 2010)

Notes: 2010 budget plan for provision and improvement of road blocks worth 5 million Baht transferred to 2011 budget of 63 million Baht as DPL loan for 2011, total 68 million Baht

Available plan / budget that can be implemented immediately - 11 items
1. Railway rehabilitation project phase 5
2. Railway rehabilitation project phase 6
3. Construction of Double-track railway - Chacherngsao - Klong 19 - Kangkoy
4. Provision of 13 diesel-electric locomotives (20 tons/shaft)
5. Improvement of unsafe railway
6. Improvement of bridges
7. Colored signal lights
8. Installation and improvement of road blocks
8.1 Installation of road blocks
8.2 Provision and improvement of road blocks
9. Installation of fences along railway
10. Construction of locomotive garage at Kangkoy
11. Construction of locomotive garage at Sriracha and Unit 10 Ladkrabang
TOTAL
Projects that require feasibility study - 10 items
1. Double-track railway Lopburi-Paknampo
2. Double-track railway Mabkabao - Nakorn Rachasima (Jira Junction)
3. Double-track railway Jira Junction - Khonkaen
4. Double-track railway Nakorn Pathom - Nongpladuk - Hua Hin
5. Double-track railway Prajuabkirikan - Chumporn
6. Provision of 50 diesel-electric locomotives GE
7. Refurbishment of 56 locomotives
8. Provision of 115 new passenger cars for commercial services
9. Construction of inland container depot (ICD) station 2
10. Installation of telecom network
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL

Project

Table 9 Cabinet Approved Investment Budget for SRT (2010-2014)

118
132
185
165
167

1,649

308
278
106

Distance
(Km)

48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
36
36

48
36
24
36
24

36
36
48
36
36
48
48

2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2013

2014
2013
2012
2014
2012

2013
2013
2015
2013
2013
2014
2014

Unit: Million Baht
PeriodDeadline(Month)Comparison of Original and Actual Scope
Item
1. Output

Plan

ActualAs planned

Phase 1
-Northern Line from Lop Buri to Chumsaeng(148km)-Southern Line from Hua Hin to Ban Krut
(141km)Total 289km

As planned

Phase 2-Northern

Line

from

ChumsaengtoPhitsanulog (108km)-Southern Line from Chai Ya to Thung Song(150km)Total 258km
As planned

Phase 3
Southern Line from Ban Krut to Chai Ya(244km)Phase 1 October 1992toDecember 1997

June 1993toOctober 2001

(63 months)(100 months)

Phase 2 July 1994toSeptember 1999

January 1995toJune 2002

(63 months)(89 months)

Phase 3 July 1996toSeptember 2001

September 1996toAugust 2002

(63 months)(73 months)

3. Project

Phase 1 14,758 million yen

12,043 million yen

CostPhase 2 11,490 million yen

11,033 million yen

Phase 3 11,527 million yen

12,783 million yen

Total

37,775 million yen

35,859 million yen

ODA Loan

Phase 1 10,331 million yen

11,428 million yen

PortionPhase 2 7,651 million yen

7,436 million yen

Phase 3 7,973 million yen

7,435 million yen

Total

26,299 million yen

2. Project
Period25,955 million yen(Inclusive of additional
financing in local currency of
2,428 million yen)-12-