IPCC Special Report SR1.5:
Climate impacts andassociated risks on naturaland human systems in Africa
Sarah Connors and Wilfran Moufouma-Okia
IPCC Working Group 1 Technical Support Unit
COP24, Katowice, Poland, 5 Dec 2018

Where does the science stand?
Since pre-industrial times, human activities havecaused approximately 1°C of global warming.
• Already seeing consequences for people,
nature and livelihoods• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052

• Past emissions alone do not commit theworld to 1.5°C• Warming from past anthropogenic emissions
will persist for centuries to millennia andcontinue to cause further long-term changes.
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

1

What’s in this report for Africa

Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

2•

Climate models project robust regional differences
between present-day and global warming of 1.5°C,
and between 1.5°C and 2°C.

•Projected risks to natural and human systems arelower at 1.5ºC than 2ºC.

•Compared to current conditions, 1.5°C global
warming would nonetheless pose heightened risks
to eradicating poverty, reducing inequalities andensuring human and ecosystem well-being.

•Africa’s climate is changing and further change isinevitable at 1.5°C and 2°C.

•Worse impacts on sustainable development will befelt among poor urban dwellers in African cities.

• Non-uniform warming• Many parts of Africa experience higher than the average
3

Global mean temperature change
1.5°C

2.0°C

difference

Global mean precipitation change
1.5°C

4

2.0°C

differenceChanges inextreme hightemperatures
between 1.5°C and2°C
As a function oftemperature
increase

5Changes inextremeprecipitation
between 1.5°C and2°C
As a function oftemperature
increase

6

Projected impacts and risks

Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

7•People will face lower risks at 1.5°C compared to 2°C,in places that already bear disproportionate economic
and social challenges to their sustainable development(e.g. West Africa, North Africa).

•Global warming of 1.5ºC (as opposed to 2ºC) is
projected to reduce climate induced impacts on crop
yield (maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cerealcrops) in Sub-Saharan Africa and nutritional content(rice and wheat) in West Africa, Southern Africa.

•Risks of food shortages are lower in the Sahel,southern Africa, and the Mediterranean at 1.5ºC ofglobal warming when compared to 2ºC.

Projected impacts and risks

Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

8•

Challenges for poor African populations relating tofood and water security, clean energy access, andenvironmental well-being will be less at 1.5°C vs 2°C•Risks associated with increases in drought frequency
and magnitude are substantially larger at 2ºC than at
1.5ºC in the Mediterranean region (including NorthernAfrica) and Southern Africa.

•The largest reductions in growth at 2ºC compared to1.5ºC of warming are projected for low-and middleincome countries and regions including Africa.

Women: 32%

9Thank you

Contact: Sarah.connors@universite-paris-saclay.fr
Wilfran.moufouma-okia@universite-paris-saclay.fr
Twitter: connorsSL

10

SPM1|

Cumulative emissions of CO2 and future non-CO2 radiative
forcing determine the probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C

11

12

13