Global Warming of 1.5°C
Presentation to the wrap-up of theTalanoa Dialogue preparatory phase

COP24, 6 December 2018

Global Warming of 1.5°C
An IPCC special report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels andrelated global greenhouse gas emission
pathways, in the context of strengthening theglobal response to the threat of climate change,sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty.

Climate change is already affecting people,
ecosystems and livelihoods around the world
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is notimpossible, but would require unprecedented
transitions in all aspects of society
There are clear benefits to keeping warming to
1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher
Limiting warming to 1.5°C can contribute toachieving other world goals

Where are we now?

Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

Where are we now?
Since pre-industrial times, human activities havecaused approximately 1.0°C of global warming.
• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030
and 2050• Past emissions alone do not commit the world to1.5°C• Already seeing consequences for people, natureand livelihoods
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?

Where do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• There are clear differences in climate andextremes between today, a 1.5°C and a 2°C
warmer world• Less impacts from extreme weather wherepeople live
• By 2100, global mean sea level rise will bearound 10 cm lower but will continue to rise forcenturies• 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of risingseas and less coastal ecosystems exposed
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheatand sorghum• Global population exposed to water stress is up to50% less, also less water stress for ecosystems• Up to several hundred million fewer people
exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible topoverty by 2050
• Lower impact on biodiversity and specieso High risk of losing 70-90% of warm water coral reefs
and their services to humankind, even higher at 2°C
Andre Seale / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?
• At 1.5 and even more so at 2°C, there isdisproportionately high risk for Arctic, dryland
regions, small island developing states and least
developed countries
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Lower risks for health, livelihoods, food security,
water supply, human security and economic
growth• A wide range of adaptation options can reduceclimate risks; less adaptation needs at 1.5°C
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

How do we get there?

Energy system transitions in numbers
Increase in primary energy compared to 2010
Pathway 3(Middle of the Road)

2030

2050

2030

2050

Coal

-61%-77%-75%-73%

Oil

-13%

-50%

-3%

-81%

Gas

-20%

-53%+33%+21%+470%+1327%

+315%

+878%

Biomass

0%

+49%

+36%

+121%

Nuclear

+83%

+98%

+98%

+501%

-5%

+2%

+17%

+21%

0.005

1.4

0.07

1.3

0.5

4.9

1.8

7.3

Non-biomass
renewables

Final energy
BECCS (GtCO2)
Fossil CCS (GtCO2)
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

Pathway 2(Sustainability Focus)

How do we get there:
Energy system transitions• Decarbonization of electricity
o Renewable energyo Integration of renewables into energy systemso Exiting fossil fuel generation• Electrification of energy end use
o Vehicles, Industry, Buildings• Energy efficiency
oAll sectors• Adaptation of key infrastructure to climate change
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Industrial system transitions• Energy efficiency• Electrification and hydrogen• Industrial carbon capture, utilization andstorage• Bio-based industry• Circular economy

Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Urban and infrastructure systems transitions• Land use and urban planning• Adoption of low–carbon transport fuels (e.g. electricity,hydrogen)• Shifts to public transportation and sharing, non-motorizedtransport• Smart grids• Efficient appliances• Low/zero-carbon buildings• Green infrastructure• Building codes and standards
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Land and ecosystem transitions• Afforestation and reforestation• Agroforestry• Sustainable intensification of agriculture• Conservation agriculture• Soil management• Livestock management• Ecosystem restoration, biodiversity management• Wetland management• Building on indigenous knowledge and local knowledge
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

How we get there:
Within and across systems• Integrated planning of transportation and urban form at thecity level• Initiatives that engage companies• Re-directing financial flows towards low-carbon assets• Integrated risk sharing and spreading• Packages of innovation policies that combine R&D withsupport for technology diffusion• Social protection for the poor and vulnerable• International, regional and local cooperation
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Sustainability• Benefits and trade-offs with SD balancing social
well-being, economic prosperity, environmental
protection• Pathways with low energy demand, low material
consumption and low carbon food have the highest
co-benefits with sustainable development.
• SD can support and enable the systemic transitions
and transformation
Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Enabling conditions• Strengthened multi-level governance and institutional

capacity• Strengthened policy tools• Technological innovation• Changes in lifestyle and behaviour• Transfer and mobilization of finance

Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

How do we get there:
Ethical and fair transitions• A careful mix of policies will allow mitigation andadaptation to be pursued alongside sustainabledevelopment.
• Low carbon, climate resilient development pathways• This implies cooperation, multi-level governance,
innovation and the re-direction of investment flows.

Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

Urgent and far reaching action

Urgent and far-reaching action• Global carbon emissions peak before 2030 in all
pathways compatible with 1.5°C warming• Emissions of carbon dioxide fall by 45% by 2030,
reaching net zero around 2050, with deep cuts inmethane and other emissions.
• Ethical and fair transitions• Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is not impossible,
but political and societal will to acceleratetransitions is key.

Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

Global Warming of 1.5°C
Presentation to the wrap-up of theTalanoa Dialogue preparatory phase

COP24, 6 December 2018