Workshop for MediaIPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportClimate Change is Broad Issue• Majority of the sciences and engineering disciplines areinvolved.
• Social sciences are interested.
• Business/Industry has a stake in.
• Involves citizens, politicians, public policy experts, andadvocates.
• Every sector of the economy is affected.
• All aspects of our lives touched: environment, jobs,health, politics, national security, arts, religion, etc.

What is happening in the
climate system?

What are the risks?

What can be done?

If the world had no atmosphere, it wouldbe very cold
–18°C
+15°C+33°C

Earth without air

Our planet

Other GHG <1 °C+15oC

CO2 2 °C

Natural GHG effect

33 °C

–18oC

H2O 31 °C

BUT THE COMPOSITION OF
AIR IS CHANGING RAPIDLY
due to human activities:→ more GHG (CO2, CH4, NOx...)→ more aerosol (air pollution)

Other GHG <1 °C+16oC

Enhanced GHG
effect33 °C+ 1 °C–18oC

CO2 2 °C + 1oC

H2O 31 °C

Impacts are already underway• Tropics to the poles• On all continents and in the ocean• Affecting rich and poor countries(but the poor are more vulnerableeverywhere)

AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportGlobal temperature rise+2°

PROBLEMATIC• 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress• Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes• Increased coastal flooding and storms• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw

DISASTROUS+4°• A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic• 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress• Widespread coral mortality; risk of major
extinctions around the globe• Substantial global impact on major crops• Long-term prospect of sea level rise

Facing the dangers from climate change…
…there are only three options:
Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce thepace & magnitude of the changes in global
climate being caused by human activities.

Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce theadverse impacts on human well-being resulting
from the changes in climate that do occur.

Suffering the adverse impacts that are not
avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.

The Choices We Make Will Create Different OutcomesWith substantial
mitigation

Without
additional
mitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)
AR5 WGI SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis ReportGlobal Warming of 1.5°C

Where are we?
Since pre-industrial times, human activities havecaused approximately 1.0°C of global warming.
• Already seeing consequences for people, natureand livelihoods• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052
• Past emissions alone do not commit the world to1.5°C
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

Impacts of global warming: Where
do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Less impacts from extreme weather wherepeople live
• By 2100, global mean sea level rise will bearound 10 cm lower …. but will continue to risefor centuries• 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of risingseas (…less coastal ecosystems exposed)
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Lower impact on biodiversity and species• Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice,wheat crop yields• Global population exposed to water shortages isup to 50% less (also less water shortages forecosystems)

Andre Seale / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Up to several hundred million fewer people
exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible
to poverty by 2050
• Lower risk to fisheries & the livelihoods that
depend on them

Natalie Behring / Aurora Photos

Where do we want to go?
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
• Disproportionately high risk for Arctic, dryland
regions, small island developing states and least
developed countries• Lower risks for health, livelihoods, food security,
water supply, human security and economicgrowth• A wide range of adaptation options can reduceclimate risks; less adaptation needs at 1.5°C
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

Ambitious emissions reductions
have...
• Co-benefits for• Human health• Reduced competition for land (BECCS)• Food security for humankind••
Peter Essick / Aurora Photos

Ecosystem restoration and carbon
storage (soils and biomass)
Biodiversity conservation

20System transitions consistent with 1.5°C
warming
Rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all systems• A range of technologies and behavioural changes• Renewables supply 70-85% of electricity in 2050
• Coal declines steeply, ~zero in electricity by 2050
• Oil and especially gas persist longer – gas use rises by2050 in some pathways• Deep emissions cuts in transport and buildings• Transitions in global and regional land use in all pathways,
but their scale depends on the mitigation portfolio• Urban and infrastructure system transitions imply
changes in land and urban planning practices
Robert van Waarden / Aurora Photos

20Close link to Sustainable
Development (SD) and SDGs
• SD balances social well-being, economic
prosperity, environmental protection• SD supports and enables the systemictransitions and transformations required• UN Sustainable Development Goals
framework• poverty eradication• reducing inequalities• climate action
Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

21There is no safe level of climatechangeAshley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

22•

Each bit of warming matters•

Each year we delay matters•

Each choice at every level mattersWe are the answer“Humans are at the centre of global climatechange: their actions cause anthropogenic
climate change, and social change is key toeffectively respond to climate change.”
The scientific message is clear. The
response is now in the hands of society,governments and policymakers

Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

23

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report