IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC
regional perspectives - Asia

Pathways with 1.5oC
Global Warming in Asia
Mikiko Kainuma
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies （IGES)
5th Dec. 2018at COP24 WMO/IPCC Pavilion

Where are we now?

• Already seeing consequences for people,
nature and livelihoods• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052

• Past emissions alone do not commit theworld to 1.5°C
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

Greenhouse gas emissions
pathways• Limiting warming to 1.5°C would requirechanges on an unprecedented scaleDeep emissions cuts in all sectors
A range of technologies
Behavioural changes

Increased investment inlow carbon optionsPeter Essick / Aurora Photos

Greenhouse gas emissions
pathways• Progress in renewables would need to be
mirrored in other sectors• We would need to start taking carbon
dioxide out of the atmosphere• Implications for food security, ecosystems
and biodiversity

Peter Essick / Aurora Photos

SPM3a|Global emissions pathway characteristics

SPM3b|Characteristics of four illustrative modelpathways

No CCS

Focusing onSustainability

Middle ofthe RoadHighdependency
on BECCSGlobal Greenhouse Gas Emissions in SSP1 and P2 Scenarios by Region
P2 Scenario (1.5oC Scenario)

SSP1 Baseline
60

GHG emissions (GtCO2eq/year)

60

Asia

40

Asia

40

P4 is a scenario with high dependency on
20
BECCS.

2000
2005

2025

2050

Asian countries
without the Middle
East, Japan andFormer Soviet Union
states2075

Latin America
and theCaribbean

2100

2005

MiddleEast andAfrica

2025OECD 90+ EU

2050

2075

2100

Reforming Economies
of Eastern Europe andthe Former SovietUnion.

Figures prepared by Fujimori from SR1.5DB

Primary Energy Consumption in SSP1 and P2 Scenarios in Asia
P2 Scenario (1.5oC Scenario)

SSP1 Baseline
250

EJ/Year200

180
160150Oil

140120

Gas

100

100

Wind80Solar
Hydro
Biomass

6050

40

Coal

2000

Coal w/CCS

Coal w/o CCS

Gas w/ccs

Gas w/o ccs

OilBiomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Solar

WindNuclear

Figures prepared by Fujimori from SR1.5DB

Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos

Characteristics of Asia•••••

Growing economy
Rapid urbanization and industrialization
Rich in natural resources
Diversity: Economy, Natural resources, Culture,Ways of living, etc.
Living in harmony; co-existence with nature

Challenges in Asia•••••

Avoiding lock-in carbon–based assets
Managing land-use
Enhancing technology development anddeployment
Mobilizing finance towards the 1.5oC world
Getting advantage of synergies with sustainable
development20000Installed Capacity (MW)

20000

SolarWind
Hydro
Energy Drop
BiogasBiomass
Municipal
Solid Waste

15000
15000

10000
10000

5000
5000

00

2014 2036
RE Target in Power
20 Mar. 2014,
Development Plan 2015,
Ministry of Energy,
PatayaThailand
Objective of the 12th FYP(2018-2023） of Bhutan
2014
Municipal Solid Waste

BiomassBiogas

Energy Drop2036

HydroWodSolar

21 Nov. 2018, Jakarta‘Just, Harmonious
and Sustainable
SocietyThrough Enhanced
Decentralisation’
Emission reduction target will be reachedmainly through 2 sectors: Land use, Landuse change and forestry: 60%; and Energy
sector: 38% in Indonesia (Boer, 2018)

Jan. 2018

RoyalGovernment of
Bhutan, 2018

“Live simply so that others
may simply live.”― Mahatma Gandhi

Thank you very much foryour kind attention!

Discussions
Q&A

Greenhouse gas emissions
pathways• To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissionsfall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010levels)
Compared to 20% for 2°C• To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions
would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050
Compared to around 2075 for 2°C• Reducing non-CO2 emissions would havedirect and immediate health benefits
Gerhard Zwerger-Schoner / Aurora Photos