Talanoa Dialogue: Wrap-up of preparatory phase
COP24, Thursday 6 December 2018
Presentation by IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee
Thank you for this opportunity to share our report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC with you.
As you know this report was prepared at the invitation of the COP when you adopted theParis Agreement.
The IPCC Plenary accepted the invitation and framed it in the context of sustainable
development and efforts to eradicate poverty, as you can see from the full title.
You asked for the report this year, in time for what has become the Talanoa Dialogue.
I would therefore like to present key findings of the report in terms of the three Talanoaquestions:

Where are we?
Where do we want to go?
How do we get there ?

But first, let me give you four key messages from the report:

Climate change is already affecting people ecosystems and livelihoods around theworld
Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC is not impossible, but it would require
unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society
There are clear benefits to keeping warming to 1.5ºC rather than 2ºC or higher
Limiting warming to 1.5ºC can go hand in hand with achieving other world goals

Or, to be even more succinct:

Every bit of warming matters
Every year matters
Every choice matters

So, to the first of the Talanoa questions: Where are we?
Since pre-industrial times, human activities have caused approximately 1ºC of global
warming.
We are already seeing the consequences of this 1ºC of warming through more extreme
weather, rising sea level and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes.
We are already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods.
At the current pace of global warming, 0.2ºC per decade, we would enter a 1.5ºC warmer
world between around 2030 and 2050.
However, we are not yet committed to 1.5ºC of global warming.

Past emissions will continue to cause changes in the climate system, and sea level willcontinue to rise.
But past emissions alone are unlikely to cause warming to reach or overshoot 1.5ºC: we still
have a window for action to limit warming to 1.5ºC by reducing greenhouse gas emissions inthe coming years.
This leads us to the second Talanoa question: Where do we want to go?
Climate projections show clear differences between today, a 1.5ºC warmer world and a 2ºC
warmer world.
Each half a degree of global warming leads to further warming over land and in oceans,increased average precipitation in cold regions, and reduced precipitation in regions ofMediterranean climate.
Differences for each additional half a degree of global warming are even stronger for extreme
events, especially increases in the number of hot days and intensification of temperature
extremes.
The intensity of extreme rainfall will increase with each additional half a degree of global
warming in several regions.
The risks from drought and precipitation deficits also increase between global warming of
1.5ºC and 2ºC.
There are thus clear differences in mean climate and extremes between a 1.5ºC versus a
2ºC warmer world.
And with 1.5ºC warming, sea level rise by 2100 will be around 10 cm less, exposing 10
million fewer people to the risk of rising seas, and giving more time for adaptation.
Even though a 1.5ºC warmer world is not a safe haven, our report clearly shows many
avoided risks compared with global warming of 2ºC or more.
At 1.5ºC rather than 2ºC:
• There are smaller reductions in yields of key crops such as maize, rice, sorghum andwheat• The global population exposed to increased water stress is up to 50 percent less
• Up to several hundred million fewer people are exposed to climate-related risk andsusceptible to poverty by 2050
• There is a lower impact on biodiversity and ecosystems
Let me give one example.
Even in a 1.5ºC warmer world, with more frequent and intense marine heat waves, there is ahigh risk of losing 70 to 90 percent of coral reefs and, importantly, their services to humanity
such as coastal protection and harbouring biodiversity for fisheries.
While this is serious, almost all tropical coral reefs would be severely degraded at 2ºC ofglobal warming.
We should also consider that at 1.5ºC and even more so at 2ºC of global warming there is adisproportionately high risk for the Arctic, dryland regions, small island developing states andleast developed countries.
Our assessment clearly shows that:• Risks are lower for health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security
and economic growth for global warming of 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC.

•A wide range of adaptation options can reduce climate risks; there are fewer
adaptation needs at 1.5ºC.

We have established where we are in terms of human-induced climate change, and provided
new knowledge for you to consider where we want to go.
So how do we get there?
Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is not impossible but implies change on an unprecedented scale.
It would mean deep emissions reductions in all sectors and rapid and far reaching transitions
in energy, land, urban, industrial and infrastructure systems.
Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC implies reducing emissions of carbon dioxide by about 45
percent by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.
And in 1.5ºC pathways, global emissions of carbon dioxide would fall to net zero around
2050, so that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing carbon
dioxide from the air.
By comparison, in most pathways limiting warming to 2ºC, carbon dioxide emissions fall by
about 25 percent by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070.
This slide shows key energy -related indicators for the years 2030 and 2050 in two of thepathways compatible with global warming of 1.5ºC highlighted in the report.
These are the central pathways, pathways 2 and 3, associated with sustainable patterns ofconsumption and more middle-of-the-road development.
I don’t have time to go through all the indicators but would like to draw your attention to somekey points:
Fossil fuel use declines substantially in both scenarios unless, as in the case of natural gas
in pathway 3, it is associated with high volumes of carbon capture and storage as shown in
the last line.
Coal use falls by at least 50 percent by 2030 and by three quarters by 2050.
There is a very large upscaling of renewable electricity generation, which meets 70—85
percent of electricity demand across all pathways compatible with global warming of 1.5ºC.
Nuclear energy doubles in pathway 2 and increases six-fold by 2050 in pathway 3.
This is all in spite of the fact that final demand for energy stays roughly level in pathway 2and increases in pathway 3.
In both pathways, there is improved access to energy but declines in energy demand in moredeveloped economies.
The widespread use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage carries large risks
for food security and for the preservation of biodiversity.
What transitions occur in pathways compatible with 1.5ºC warming?
Firstly by decarbonizing the electricity supply through greater use of renewables and areduction in coal and other fossil fuels.
This in turn reduces emissions of other sectors by electrifying other energy end users suchas vehicles, industry and building.
Increased energy efficiency across all sectors is also a potent source of emissions reduction.

And this energy infrastructure must be designed to be resilient to changing climateconditions.
Again, in industry, electrification and energy efficiency allow us to cut emissions.
Techniques such as carbon capture and storage also play a role.
And industry can reduce its carbon footprint by a less wasteful use of materials bydeveloping the circular economy.
With over half the world’s population now living in urban areas, and huge investments infuture urban areas planned, cities offer enormous potential to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
This involves developing low-carbon transport systems, including urban planning that
supports low carbon and public transport.
Smart grids for urban power and low or zero carbon buildings are among other cities andinfrastructure solutions.
Green infrastructure can improve the adaptive capacity of cities while the use of building
codes and standards can help minimize risk and loss of infrastructure.
Changes to agricultural practices and land management and the deployment of nature-based
solutions can allow us to reduce emissions, increase the role of land as a sink for carbon,
and provide adaptation benefits.
This area includes afforestation and reforestation and livestock management.
Soil management to enhance carbon storage can also bring the co-benefit of improving thequality of soil to improve crop cultivation.
To be effective, these transitions should be integrated and coordinated across all systems.
Business can be motivated to invest in innovative low-carbon products and services.
This means redirecting financial flows towards low-carbon assets.
The transition to a low carbon world would address social protection for the poor andvulnerable.
And it requires international cooperation.
Individual adaptation or mitigation measures to address climate change could lead to cobenefits or trade-offs with the other dimensions of sustainable development goals.
Our report shows that adaptation and mitigation measures, when carefully chosen andimplemented, would allow us to follow pathways that support the sustainable development
agenda, promoting social wellbeing, economic prosperity and environmental protection.
Pathways with low energy demand, low material consumption and low carbon food have thehighest co-benefits with sustainable development.
Sustainable development in turn supports the transitions and transformations required for a
1.5ºC world.
The feasibility of the adaptation and mitigation options that allow us to limit warming to 1.5ºC
are determined by a number of enabling conditions.
These include strengthening institutional capacity, technological innovation, changes inlifestyle and behaviour, and transfer and mobilization of finance.
When designed and implemented with specific attention to those must vulnerable to climatechange and to the consequences of climate policies, these transitions can be ethical and fair,leading to low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathways.
The careful mix of policies to deliver adaptation, mitigation and development needs
cooperation, multi-level governance, innovation and investment.

Let me conclude by highlighting some key conclusions.
In all pathways compatible with limiting warming to 1.5ºC, global carbon dioxide emissions
peak before 2030.
Emissions of carbon dioxide fall by 45 percent by 2030 compared with 2010, reaching net
zero by around 2050, with deep cuts in methane and other emissions.
By paying special attention to the poor and vulnerable, rapid and far-reaching transitions canbe fair and ethical.
As we show clearly – limiting warming to 1.5ºC is not impossible, but political and societal willto accelerate the transition is critical.
And rapid action is needed to secure emissions reductions before 2030 to leave thepossibility to stabilize global warming at 1.5ºC.
The scientific message is clear.
It is now up to society, governments and policymakers to act.