Mitigation and Adaptation
Options

IPCC regional
perspectives - Centraland South America
December 5th, 2018
Dr. Debora Ley

Feasibility Context: Mitigation & Adaptation
Options to enable Four Systems Transitions
1. Energy System Transitions
2. Land and Ecosystem Transitions
3. Urban and Infrastructure System Transitions
4. Industrial system Transitions+Enabling Conditions &Assess Synergies, Trade-offs & Knowledge Gaps

Adaptation needs will be lower in a
1.5°C world compared to a 2°C world(high confidence) and avoided impacts
will be greater
Adaptation: The process of adjustment toactual or expected climate and its effects. In
human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate
or avoid harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. In some natural systems
adaptation facilitates adjustment to expectedclimate and its effects.
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

7Adaptation: Incremental and Transformational
Incremental adaptation:
Adaptation that maintains theessence and integrity of asystem or process at a given
scale.
Transformational adaptation:
Adaptation that changes thefundamental attributes of asocio-ecological system inanticipation of climate changeand its impacts.

Feasibility
assessment8Feasibility of options in system transitions

Mitigation andadaptation options
assessed along six
dimensions
Result: where should apolicymaker look first for
quick wins? And whatbarriers need to beovercome?

Dimensions

Adaptation indicators
Micro-economic viability
Macro-economic viability
Socio-economic vulnerability reduction potential
Employment & productivity enhancement
potential

Mitigation indicators

Cost-effectivenessFeasibility of options in system transitions
Economic

Absence of distributional effects
Employment & productivity enhancement
potential

TechnologicalTechnical resource availabilityRisks mitigation potential

Technical scalability
Maturity
Simplicity
Absence of risk

Institutional

Political acceptability
Legal & regulatory feasibility
Institutional capacity & administrative feasibility
Transparency & accountability potential

Political acceptability
Legal & administrative feasibility
Institutional capacity
Transparency & accountability potential

Socio-cultural

Social co-benefits (health, education)
Socio-cultural acceptability
Social & regional inclusivenessIntergenerational equity

Social co-benefits (health, education)
Public acceptanceSocial & regional inclusivenessIntergenerational equity
Human capabilities

Environmental Ecological capacity/ ecological
Adaptive capacity/ resilience building potential

Geophysical

Reduction of air pollution
Reduction of toxic waste
Reduction of water use
Improved biodiversity

Physical feasibility
Land use change enhancement potential
Hazard risk reduction potential

Physical feasibility (physical potentials)
Limited use of land
Limited use of scarce (geo)physical resources
Global spread

Total:19 indicators

Total: 24 indicators

Feasibility of options in system transitions
Adaptation indicators

Guiding questions for adaptation indicators

Micro-economic viability(benefits, costs, trade-offs &lock-ins)

What are the costs and trade-offs of the adaptation
option (to what extent are vulnerable people, systems
benefitted)?

Macro-economic viability(investment and financial,consumption, investment,inflation & trade)

Would the option lead to higher productivity? Does it leadto employment generation? Does it cost jobs?

Socio-economic vulnerability
reduction potential

To what extent is the option reducing inequalities andenhancing economic opportunities?

Employment & productivity
enhancement potential

How many people that can be employed or how muchcan a system’s productivity increase under the option(without distorting employment generation potential andcausing loss of jobs)

All

Solar PVHigh

P1

Low/zero-energy
buildings

High

P1, P2

Afforestation &reforestation

HighP3, P4

Power sector CO2
capture andstorageHigh

P3, P4

BECCS

MediumGeophysicalEnvironmental

Socio-cultural

Institutional

Technological

Economic

Mitigation
OptionConfidence

Feasibility of key options in illustrative model pathways

Context

Solar irradiation, incentive regime, legal
framework for independent power
producers
Size of existing building stock, growth ofbuilding stock
Depends on location, mode ofimplementation, and economic andinstitutional factors
Local CO2 storage capacity, presence oflegal framework, level of development andquality of public engagement
Depends on biomass availability, CO2
storage capacity, legal framework,
economic status and social acceptanceFeasibility of Mitigation Options
SystemEnergysystemtransitions

Land &ecosystemtransitions

Mitigation
optionWind energy(on-shore &off-shore)
Solar PV

Evidence

Agreement

RobustMediumRobustHigh

Bioenergy

RobustMediumElectricity
storage
Reduced foodwastage &efficient foodproductionDietary shifts

RobustHigh

RobustHigh

RobustHigh

Sustainable
intensificationof agriculture
Ecosystems
restoration

RobustHigh

Depends on individual behaviour, education, cultural factors
and institutional support
Depends on development and deployment of new technologies

MediumHigh

Depends on location and institutional factors

Ec

Tec

Inst

Soc

Env

Geo

Context
Wind regime, economic status, space for windfarms andenhanced by legal framework for independent power producers
affect uptake; cost-effectiveness affected by incentive regime.
Cost-effectiveness affected by solar irradiation and incentiveregime. Also enhanced by legal framework for independent
power producers affect uptake.
Depends on availability of biomass and land and capability to
manage sustainable land use. Distributional effects depend on
the agrarian (or other) system used to produce feedstock.
Batteries universal but grid flexible resources vary with area's
level of development
Will depend on the combination of individual and institutional
behaviourFeasibility of Mitigation Options
SystemUrban &infrastructu
retransitions

Industrialsystemtransitions

Mitigation
optionLand-use &urbanplanningElectric cars
and buses
Sharingschemes
Publictransport

EcTec

InstSoc

Env

Geo

Evidence

Agreement

Context

RobustMediumVaries with urban fabric, not geography or economy; requires
capacitated local government and legitimate tenure system

MediumHigh

LimitedMediumRobustMediumNonmotorised
transport
Aviation &shipping
Smart Grids

RobustHigh

Varies with degree of government intervention; requires
capacity to retrofit “fuelling” stations
Historic schemes universal new ones depend on ICT status;
undermined by high crime and low levels of law enforcement
Depends on presence of existing ‘informal’ taxi systems, which
may be more cost effective and affordable than capital intensive
new build schemes, as well as (local) government capabilities
Viability rests on linkages with public transport, culturalfactors, climate and geography

MediumMediumVaries with technology, governance and accountability

MediumMediumEfficientappliances
Low/zeroenergy
buildings
Efficiency

MediumHigh

Varies with economic status and presence or quality of existing
grid
Adoption varies with economic status and policy framework

MediumHigh

Depends on size of existing building stock and growth ofbuilding stock

RobustHigh

Potentials and adoption depends on existing efficiency, energy
prices and interest rates, as well as government incentives.

Afforestation&reforestation
Soil carbon
sequestration& biochar

RobustHigh

Depends on location, mode of implementation, and economic
and institutional factors

RobustHigh

Depends on location, soil properties, time span

Feasibility of Adaptation Options

Feasibility of Adaptation Options

Critical enabling conditions• Finance & investment•

Additional 2.5% overall, but considerable
redirection from fossil to low-emission• Policy instrumentation•

Including de-risking investment• Institutional capacity•Needed globally in e.g. government,companies, communities and banks• Governance: ability to cooperate acrossactors• Behaviour change, also for public support• Technological innovation
Peter Essick / Aurora Photos

Behavioral changes and socio-cultural
feasibility of adaptation••••

Farmer decision making
Building design
Water conservationRole of incentives

Technology innovations and feasibilityfor adaptation•••

Precision agriculture
Smart homes andcities
Disaster early warningClimate Resiliencein LAC8

Case Studies of LAC Highlighted in the SR• Mayan Indigenous Knowledge• Integrated Watershed Management inGuatemala• Disaster preparedness, response, andgovernance in the Caribbean (Cuba,Jamaica, UK Outer Territories)• Forests, food security, and poverty
alleviation in the Amazon

Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)• Limiting warming to 1.5°C would requiretransformative systemic change, integrated
with sustainable development. Such change
would require the upscaling andacceleration of the implementation of farreaching, multi-level and cross-sectoral
climate mitigation and addressing barriers.
Such systemic change would need to belinked to complementary adaptation
actions, including transformational
adaptation, especially for pathways that
temporarily overshoot 1.5°C
Peter Essick / Aurora Photos

Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)• A mix of mitigation and adaptation options

implemented in a participatory and integrated
manner can enable rapid, systemic transitions inurban and rural areas that are necessary
elements of an accelerated transition to 1.5°C
worlds. Such options and changes are mosteffective when aligned with economic andsustainable development, and when local andregional governments are supported by national
governments

Peter Essick / Aurora Photos• Increasing evidence suggests that a climatesensitive realignment of savings andexpenditure towards low-emission, climateresilient infrastructure and services requires an
evolution of global and national financial
systemsThank you!

Questions?
Q&A
debbieannley@yahoo.com