中国によって排出される温室効果ガス
は世界をのみこんでしまうのか。
Will China Overwhelm the World
with its Greenhouse Gas
Emissions?
Mark D. Levine
ローレンス・バークレー国立研究所
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
RITE International Symposium
東京・日本 Tokyo, Japan
February 9, 20111

中国エネルギーグループ
ローレンス・バークレー国立研究所
China Energy Group at
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab• 1988年創設 Established 1988
• 世界でも独特 Unique in the world• 使命：中国エネルギーグループは中国等々にある諸グループと協力し以下に務める
Mission: China Energy Group works collaboratively withgroups in China and elsewhere to:– 省エネを推進する中国関連機関の能力向上
enhance the capabilities of Chinese institution that promote energy
efficiency– 省エネ政策立案・改善の支援
assist in energy efficiency policy development– 中国におけるエネルギー利用の変遷に関する研究
research the dynamics of energy use in China.
2ローレンス・バークレー国立研究所：中国
エネルギーグループ

LBNL’s China Energy

Group

Energy Policy Assessment,
Institution and Capacity Building,
Building Energy Efficiency

Industrial Energy
Efficiency, Energy Policy
Assessment

Mark D. LevineGroup Leader
MDLevine@lbl.gov

Lynn Price
Staff Scientist
LKPrice@lbl.gov

Appliance Standards and Labeling,
Modeling and China Energy
Scenarios

Modeling and Scenarios,
Appliance Standards andLabeling, Industrial Energy
Efficiency, Building Energy
Efficiency

David Fridley
Deputy Group Leader
Staff Scientist
DGFridley@lbl.gov

Nan Zhou
Scientist
NZhou@lbl.gov
3ローレンス・バークレー国立研究所：中国
エネルギーグループ

LBNL’s China Energy
Industrial Energy Efficiency,
Demand-side Management,
Policy Analysis
Bo ShenPrincipal Scientific Engineering
Associate BoShen@lbl.gov

Industrial Energy Efficiency,
Policy Analysis
Stephanie Ohshita
Visiting Faculty
SBOhshita@lbl.gov

Group
Building Energy Efficiency,
Modeling and Simulation

Wei Feng
Science/Engineering Associate

Appliance Standards andLabeling, Emerging Areas,
Policy Analysis
Nina Zheng
Research Associate
XZheng@lbl.gov

Industrial Energy Efficiency,
Energy Policy Assessment,
China Energy Databook

Institutional Capacity
Building, Industrial
Energy Efficiency

Hongyou Lu
Senior Research Associate
HYLu@lbl.gov

Cecilia Chen
Research Associatecfino-chen@lbl.gov

4ローレンス・バークレー国立研究所：中国
エネルギーグループ

LBNL’s China Energy
Industrial Energy
Efficiency, Policy Analysis

Modeling and Scenario,
Industrial Energy Efficiency

Ali Hasanbeigi
Post Doc
AHasanbeigi@lbl.gov

Jing Ke
Post Doc
JKe@lbl.gov

Group

Industrial Energy Efficiency,
Modeling and Scenario
Modeling and
Scenario Forecasting
Yining Qin
Post Doc
YiningQin@lbl.gov

Building Energy
Efficiency

Cindy Hou
Visiting Researcher
Xhou@lbl.gov

Queena Qian
Visiting Researcher
Queena.Qian@dante.lbl.
gov

Building Energy Efficiency
Rui FanVisiting Researcher
RFan@lbl.gov
5主な成功 Key Successes• 電気製品省エネ基準
Appliance energy efficiency standards• 工業における自発的参加・合意
Voluntary agreements for industry• 機関設立：北京省エネセンター及びエネルギー財団中国持続可能エネルギープログラム
Institution building: Beijing Energy Efficiency Center andthe Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy
Program• 中国エネルギー需要モデル
Energy demand model for China• 中国人への省エネに関する諸々のトレーニング：1000人以上
Trained >1000 Chinese in various aspects of energy
efficiency

6

比較:三峡ダムに対する省エネ改善後の冷蔵庫と空調
Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator
and AC Efficiency Improvements
120

TWH/Year

100

80

60

40

20

三峡
Three
Gorges

空調 AirConditioners

冷蔵庫
Refrigerators

0

Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect.
7

中国における
エネルギーと二酸化炭素排出
Energy and Carbon Dioxide
Emissions in China
中国の外から中を見たときView from Outside China Looking in8良い知らせ その１
Good News Part I
1980-2002

9中国のエネルギー及び経済成長
China’s Energy & Economic Growth
1980-2002
1000
900
800

1980 = 100

700
600
500

GDP
400
300
200

Energy
100
0
1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002
10

この経済成長とエネルギー増加の「不一致（切り離し）」は偶然ではない：それは1979年に中国が宣言した目標であったし、大変強力な数々の政策によって達成されたものであった。
This ―decoupling‖ between economic andenergy growth was not an accident: it was agoal of China declared in 1979 and wasaccompanied by a collection of very strong
policies11

悪い知らせThe Bad News
2002-2005

12

1980年以降初めて、2002年から2005年の間に、GDPに対するエネルギー消費量の割合(エネルギー強度：energy/unit GDP)が増加し、その後に重大な影響を及ぼしている。
From 2002-2005, intensity (energy/unit
GDP) increased for the first time since 1980
with very significant consequences13中国のエネルギー強度
China’s Energy Intensity (1980-2005)
4,000

kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2005) RMB

3,500

Average Annual Decline of
5% per year

3,000

2,500

2,000

Average Annual Increase of
5% per year

1,500

1,000

500

0
1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

14

エネルギー関連二酸化炭素の年排出：アメリカ＆中国
Annual Energy-Related CO2 Emissions:
US & China, 1980 to 2008
8,000

Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide

7,000

アメリカ US

6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000

中国China
2,000
1,000
0
1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

US Data from 1950 to 1979 are from: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2006. US data from 1980 to 2007 are from: EIA, Annual Energy Review, 2009. "Environmental Indicators",
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/envir.html; US data of 2008 is from EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gas Report, "Table 6 Energy-Related Emissions", 2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html;
China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised
1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL. Per-capita emission
data of US are from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2010 and EIA, International Energy Statistics (Database).

15

全世界、中国、アメリカにおけるエネルギー関連二酸化炭素の一人当たりの排出
Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions – 1950-2008

Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide

25

20

アメリカ
US

15

10

5

0

全世界平均 Global Average

中国China1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

US Data from 1950 to 1979 are from: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2006. US data from 1980 to 2007 are from: EIA, Annual Energy Review, 2009.
"Environmental Indicators", http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/envir.html; US data of 2008 is from EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gas Report, "Table 6 Energy-Related Emissions", 2009.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using
revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL. Population data are from US Census.

16エネルギー消費の急激な増加の原因
Reasons for Dramatic
Increase in Energy Growth• 前代未聞の建設ブーム：住宅・商工業建物・道路・鉄道

Unprecedented construction boom: houses,
commercial buildings, roads, rail
• ＷＴＯへの加入：輸出増加
Entrance to WTO: export boom
• 省エネ政策担当機関への怠慢（無関心）の結果
Fruits of inattention to energy efficiency
policy apparatus

17中国の鉄鋼とセメント生産
China’s Steel and Cement Production
中国の鉄鋼生産量
China’s Steel Production
1990 – 2007

中国のセメント生産量
China’s Cement Production
1990 – 2007

Million Metric Tons
Source: China Iron and Steel Association; Institute of Technical Information for the Building Materials Industry; U.S.
Geological Survey

18

中国とアメリカの鉄鋼及びセメント生産
China and U.S. Steel and Cement Production600

中国の鉄鋼生産量
China’s Steel Production
1990 – 2008

1,600

中国のセメント生産量
China’s Cement Production
1990 – 2008

1,400

500

1,200
400

1,000

300

800
600

200

400
100

0
1990

200

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

US
2008

0
US
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2008

アメリカ

アメリカ

Million Metric Tons
Source: China Iron and Steel Association; Institute of Technical Information for the Building Materials Industry; U.S.
Geological Survey

19

2007年世界におけるセメント生産
Cement Production Worldwide: 2007
他 Rest of World 26%

メキシコ Mexico 2%
イタリア Italy 2%
トルコ Turkey 2%

スペインSpain 2%
ロシア Russia 2%
韓国
Rep of Korea 2%
日本Japan 3%アメリカ United States 4%(includes Puerto Rico)

インド
India 6%

中国
China
~50%

Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2008. Mineral Commodity Summaries: Cement; China National Bureau of Statistics, 200820

良い知らせ その２Good News Part II
2005-20102005年、中央政治局が5年でエネルギー強度の20％減を指示する発表
2005 Announcement by Politburo mandating a
20% energy intensity decrease in 5 years
続けて、行政院長・全国人民代表大会・国家発展改革委員会
発展計画司(NDRC)により同様の宣言や活動
Followed by similar statements and actions by the
Premier, the National Peoples Congress, and NDRC

省や地域レベルでの様々な行動・活動
And a multiplicity of actions on the provincial
and local levels

21中国のエネルギー強度（1980～現在）
China’s Energy Intensity(1980-present)
4,000

kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2005) RMB

3,500

1980-2002:
Average Annual Decline of
5% per year

3,000
2,500

2002-2005:
Average Annual Increase of
5% per year

2,000
1,500

2005-2009:15.6% Decrease

1,000
500
0
1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008
22

ほぼ全ての政策がその目標を達成
Almost all of the policies achieved
their goals

23

エネルギー強度20％減達成のために実行された政策
Policies implemented to achieve the 20%
energy intensity target
工業 Industry• １０の主要プロジェクト Ten Key Projects
石炭火力工業用ボイラーの刷新 renovation of coal-fired industrial boilers
地域レベルでの熱・電力統合プロジェクト district level combined heatand power projects
廃熱及び圧力の利用 waste heat and pressure utilization
石油の節約及び代用 oil conservation and substitution
モーターシステムの省エネ motor system energy efficiency
エネルギーシステム最適化 energy systems optimization• トップ1000企業プログラム Top-1000 Enterprise Program• 小規模プラント閉鎖 Small Plant Closures24

政策（続） Policies (cont)
建物 Buildings
１０の主要プロジェクト Ten Key Projects
建物における省エネに対するインセンテイブ
Incentives for energy efficiency and conservation in buildings
省エネ照明 Energy-efficient lighting
省エネ製品における政府調達
Government procurement of energy efficiency products
電化製品基準と省エネラベルAppliance standards and energy-efficiency labels
建築物エネルギー基準の施行強化
Enhanced enforcement of building energy standards
中国北方地区における断熱等、建物の省エネ効果改善
Heating energy retrofits in N. China
工業セクターの改革（サービス重視など） Industrial restructuring

財政的インセンテイブ Financial Incentives
中央政府の資金 Central government funds
地方政府の資金 Provincial government funds
200-250元/tce節約に対する奨励プログラム
200-250 RBM/tce saved award program25

未来図
A View of the Future
2010-2050

26

LBNL 中国エネルギー
エンド・ユーズモデルの結果
Results of LBNL China Energy
End-Use Model（4年の成果）Four-year effort: Nan Zhou (lead),David Fridley, Nina Zheng, Jing Ke, Lynn Price, andMark Levine27特筆すべき仮定事項
Noteworthy Assumptions
幾分か低い経済成長予測
Somewhat lower annual economic growth projections:
7.7% (2010-2020); 5.9% (2020-2030); 3.4% (2030-2050)
重工業に関する生産出力は物理的要因によって決まる
Physical drivers for the production of heavy industrial outputs
例. アンモニア生産は種がまかれる地域と肥料エネルギー強度で決まる
e.g. ammonia production is driven by sown area and fertilizer
energy intensity
車保有率：2050年には50％、現在のアメリカの各人当たりの車保有数と同じ
Car ownership: 50% as many cars/person in 2050 as the United States
has today
新エネルギー及び原子力発電は急速に増加する
Renewable and nuclear electricity grows very fast
2050年までに各300-500ＧＷ (現在のアメリカそれぞれ35、100GW)
300-550 GW for each by 2050 (versus 35 and 100 GW in U.S. today)
機材・建物・製品・インフラの飽和を十分に勘定
Explicit accounting for saturation of equipment, buildings, products,
and infrastructure28

セクター毎の一次エネルギー利用
Total Primary Energy Use by Sector
継続的改善があった場合
Continued Improvement
6,000
5,000

4,000

Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential

加速的改善があった場合
Accelerated Improvement
5,481

5,213

6,000
5,000
4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

1,000

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0
2000

Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential

2010

4,475

2020

2030

4,558

2040

2050

Primary Energy Use (Mtce)
29

両シナリオにおける炭素ガス排出の見通し(CCSなし）
Carbon Emissions Outlook for CIS and AIS
Scenarios (without Carbon Capture and Storage)
継続的改善があった場合
Continued Improvement

加速的改善があった場合
Accelerated Improvement
14,00014,00012,00010,000Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential

11,931

11,192

12,00010,000
8,000

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

2010

9,680
7,352

居民生活

居民生活

8,000

0
2000

Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential

2020

2030

2040

2050

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Mt CO2 Emissions30

一次エネルギー需要予測：他の主要分析との比較
Total Primary Energy Use:
Comparison with Other Mainstream Analyses
Total Primary Energy Demand (Mtce)

7,500
ERI Base @ IEA
Con

7,000
6,500

ERI Eff @ IEA
Conv

6,000
5,500

IEA Ref

5,000

4,500
LBNL CIS

4,000
3,500
ERI LC @ IEA
Conv

3,000
2,500

LBNL AIS

2,000
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Note: Y-axis not scaled to 0.

ERI: China Energy Research Institute; IEA Conv: IEA convention for converting primary electricity; IND: Industry; OIGDP: Other Industry GDP;
GR: Growth Rate; MAC: Macroeconomic; OI EI: Other Industry Energy Intensity; HI P: Heavy Industrial Production; COM: Commercial; FA: Floor
Area; LOI: Lighting & Other Intensity; LC: Low Carbon; RES: Residential; EAF: Electric Arc Furnace; TRA: Transport; EV: Electric Vehicles; CIS:
Continued Improvement Scenario; OFA: Ocean Freight Activity; ALC: Accelerated Low Carbon; AIS: Accelerated Improvement Scenario

31

一次エネルギー需要 感度分析
Total Primary Energy Use
Sensitivity Analysis

Note: Y-axis not scaled to 0.
ERI: China Energy Research Institute; IEA Conv: IEA convention for converting primary electricity; IND: Industry; OIGDP: Other Industry GDP; GR:
Growth Rate; MAC: Macroeconomic; OI EI: Other Industry Energy Intensity; HI P: Heavy Industrial Production; COM: Commercial; FA: Floor Area;
LOI: Lighting & Other Intensity; LC: Low Carbon; RES: Residential; EAF: Electric Arc Furnace; TRA: Transport; EV: Electric Vehicles; CIS: Continued
Improvement Scenario; OFA: Ocean Freight Activity; ALC: Accelerated Low Carbon; AIS: Accelerated Improvement Scenario

一次エネルギー需要 感度分析
Total Primary Energy Use
Sensitivity Analysis

Note: Y-axis not scaled to 0.
ERI: China Energy Research Institute; IEA Conv: IEA convention for converting primary electricity; IND: Industry; OIGDP: Other Industry GDP; GR:
Growth Rate; MAC: Macroeconomic; OI EI: Other Industry Energy Intensity; HI P: Heavy Industrial Production; COM: Commercial; FA: Floor Area;
LOI: Lighting & Other Intensity; LC: Low Carbon; RES: Residential; EAF: Electric Arc Furnace; TRA: Transport; EV: Electric Vehicles; CIS: Continued
Improvement Scenario; OFA: Ocean Freight Activity; ALC: Accelerated Low Carbon; AIS: Accelerated Improvement Scenario

LBNLシナリオと他分析との大きな違い：我々の分析では2025年(加速的改善）もしくは2030年(継続的改善)頃から需要が一定に落ち着く
Important Difference between LBNL scenarios and theothers: our cases show a plateau beginning around2025 (AIS) or 2030 (CIS)
分析で見られた需要の一定化は実際に同様の時間枠でおこりうると考える
We believe this plateau is very likely to take place in this time frame• 飽和効果Saturation effects• 都市化の減速
Slowdown of urbanization• 低い人口増加率
Low population growth• 高付加価値商品など、輸出製品の変化
Change in exports to high value added products34結論１ Conclusions I•

一般的には中国は今世紀にかけて今後も二酸化炭素排出を続け、世界の排出量の大きな割合を占めるだろうと考えられている。しかし、以下の理由でそうはならないであろうと我々は考える：• 2030年頃までに電化製品・住居・商業地域・道路・鉄道等が飽和状態に至る• 都市化の加速は2030年から2035年頃にはピークをむかえる• エネルギー多消費型産業の輸出の減少• 人口増加率の低下• It is a common belief that China’s CO2 emissions will continue
to grow throughout this century and will dominate the world’s
emissions. We believe this is not likely to be the case because:• Appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways,
railways, fertilizer use, etc. will saturate in the 2030 time frame• Urbanization growth rate peaks by 2030 or 2035
• Exports of energy-intensive industry will decline• Low population growth35

結論２ Conclusions II• 2025年頃まで：インフラ建設が続く中国におけるエネルギー需要成長は非常に予測が難しい
Until around 2025 – energy demand growth will be highly
uncertain in China as it continues to build out its infrastructure– 現状の政策から1%程度のエネルギー成長が見通せる先進国とは対照的である– This is in contrast to developed countries who can count on anenergy growth of ~1% with current policies•

結果として、現時点で絶対的な排出上限を中国が受け入れられるわけがない。
As a result, it makes no sense for China to accept an absolute
cap on emissions at this time•

一方、不確実な経済成長率に関わらず改善が見込める、炭素強度（炭素排出原単位）の減少に取り組むことが考えられる。
Reduction of carbon intensity on the other hand makes sense,as this assures improvement regardless of uncertain economic
growth rates

36

ありがとうございました。

Thank you!!

37

Backups

38

Assumptions #1• Urbanization: 50% (now); 80% projected to increase to80% (2050)
o U.S. 2008: 81.7%, Japan 2008: 66.5%• Population: increase of only 80 million in 40 years• GDP Annual Growth Rate: 7.7% (2010 – 2020); 5.9%(2020 – 2030); 3.4% (2030 – 2050)
o U.S.: 2% in 2007, 0.4% in 2008. Japan: 2.4% in 2007,-0.7% in 2008
• Production of cement, iron & steel, aluminum, glass,polyethylene and ammonia : physical drivers– e.g. ammonia production is driven by sown area
an fertilizer intensity• Car ownership: cars owned per 1000 people—today:
470 in U.S.; 215 in Korea; 435 in Japan; for China in
2050, 250.

Assumptions #2• Urban residential floor area per capita: 24 m2 (today); 46m2 (2050)
o U.S. 2005: 75.8 m2, Japan 2003: 35.5 m2• Urban appliance saturation: major appliances all close tosaturation in 2009
• Appliance efficiency: U.S. levels in 2020; continued improvement• Commercial floor area per employee: 52 m2 – between current
levels in Japan (36 m2) and the US (62 m2)• Building lifetime: 30 years
o U.S. commercial buildings: 65 – 80 years, Japan: 30 – 40 years• Renewable and nuclear energy capacity: wind and nuclear willgrow to 450 GW and 300GW respectively by 2050 in CIS, and
500GW and 550GW in AIS.
o Wind: U.S. had 35.16 GW in 2009, Japan had 2.2 GW in 2009o Nuclear: U.S. 2008: 101 GW nuclear installed capacity, Japan
2009: 47.5 GW net capacity• Ultra super critical share of coal generation: reaches 33% in 2020
and 83% in 2050 in CIS, and 42% in 2020 to 95% in 2050 in AIS

Assumptions for Key Macroeconomic& Industrial Drivers• Urbanization: projected to increase to 80% in 2050 from 45% in 2007
o U.S. 2008: 81.7%, Japan 2008: 66.5%• Population: will reach 1.41 billion in 2050, an increase of 80 million
from 2007• GDP Annual Growth Rate: 7.7% between 2010 to 2020, 5.9% from2020 to 2030, 3.4% from 2030 to 2050
o U.S.: 2% in 2007, 0.4% in 2008. Japan: 2.4% in 2007, -0.7% in 2008

• Production of cement, iron & steel, aluminum, and glass : basedon major physical driver relationships to build environment
requirements for growing urban population, with floor spaceconstruction area as a proxy. Assume exports remain constant.
• Production of ammonia and ethylene: Ammonia production isdriven by sown area an fertilizer intensity while ethylene production
was based on population and per capita demand for plastics, using
current level in Korea and Japan as proxies

Assumptions about Other Key Drivers (1)• Urban residential floor area per capita: almost double from 24 m2
to 46m2 between 2005 and 2050
o U.S. 2005: 75.8 m2, Japan 2003: 35.5 m2• Urban appliance saturation: major appliances all close to saturationin 2009o US and Japan: major appliances all at or past saturation for the
past 20 years• Appliance efficiency: moderate efficiency improvement (1/3
improvement relative to High Efficiency) for CIS and Moderate
Improvement of new equipment in 2010 – near Best Practice by 2020

• Commercial floor area per employee: an increase of about 25% by2030 and 86% by 2050 to 53 m2 compared to 2005,

o in between Japan in 2002 (36 m2) and the US (62 m2) in 2003
• Tertiary sector employee: increase by about 33% by 2030 compared
to 2005.
o U.S. 2008: 67% of male employees, 89.9% of female employees.
Japan 2008: 60% of male employees, 77% of female employees.

Assumptions about Other Key Drivers (2)• Commercial cooling efficiency: Current International Best Practiceby 2050 in CIS and by 2020 in AIS• Building lifetime: 30 years
o U.S. commercial buildings: 65 – 80 years, Japan: 30 – 40 years• Renewable and nuclear energy capacity: wind and nuclear willgrow to 450 GW and 300GW respectively by 2050 in CIS, and 500GW
and 550GW in AIS.
o Wind: U.S. had 35.16 GW in 2009, Japan had 2.2 GW in 2009o Nuclear: U.S. 2008: 101 GW nuclear installed capacity, Japan 2009:47.5 GW net capacity• Ultra super critical share of coal generation: reaches 33% in 2020
and 83% in 2050 in CIS, and 42% in 2020 to 95% in 2050 in AIS• Car ownership: reaches 25 %of population by 2050, compared with21.5 % in Korea and 43.3% in Japan in 2002 and 47.4% in U.S (asmeasured by cars owned per 1000 people).

Cement Production
1,800
Rail

百
万
吨
水
泥

Million tonnes of cement

1,600

铁路建设

Buildings 房屋建筑

1,400

Highway and Roads

高速公路和普通公路建设

1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030
44

Fleet of Transport Vehicles
500
450

58.4

400

45.2

Motorcycles 摩托车Million Units

350

百
万
辆

Buses 公共汽车

300

Cars 私人汽车

250

46.9

200

45.2
360.7

150
100
50
0

173.9
8.3
24.2
11.2

2005

2030

2050
45