Beyond COP21: A nexus(SDG) perspective on
global decarbonization
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology
ALPS International Symposium: COP21 results and Long-term
Reductions of Greenhouse Gas Emissions beyond COP21
RITE, Tokyo – 10 February 2016

A GLOBAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE Established as a scientific bridge
between East and West
 After Cold War ended focused on
multiple dimensions of globalchange Now embarked on the newresearch strategy for the next
decadeNakicenovic

2016 #22015

23 IIASA NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS International, independent,
interdisciplinary science research & big-data on major
global problems

 Solution & policy oriented,
integrated systems analysis

Nakicenovic

2016 #3
2015

Global CO2 Emissions

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2016 #4

Global CO2 Emissions

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)

120
10080

IPCC Category I
RCP 8.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
GEA (SE4ALL)

RCP 8.5

reductions of 35-75% by
RCP2050
6.060

Peak by 202040

RCP 4.520

RCP 2.60-201850

Nakicenovic

almost zero or negative in the long term
1900

1950

20002050

Source: GEA, 2012; IPCC, 2014

2100

2016 #52015

Global CO2 Emissions

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)

120
100

IPCC Category I
RCP 2.6
1.5oC ≈ 2.080

1.5oC ≈ 2.060
40
20

RCP 2.60-20
1850

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1900

1950

2000

Source: Rogelj et. al, 2015

2050

2100

2016 #62015

Global CO2 Emissions

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)

120
100

IPCC Category I
RCP 2.6
1.5oC ≈ 2.080

1.5oC ≈ 2.060
40
20

RCP 2.60-20
1850

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1900

1950

20002050

2100

2016 #7
2015Net-negative CO2 Emissions

Max. temperature change in 21th century
Net carbon emission (in year 2100)

net negative carbon emissions

NO Scenarios with net negative Emissions above ~ 2.8 degree

2.5

2.0

1.5

Max. temperature change [K]3.0

NO Scenarios without net negative Emissions below ~ 1.5 degree
1.060

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40
200-20-40
Net carbon emissions in 2100 [Gt CO2]-602016 #82015

The Key Energy Challenges

Climate Change

Energy Security
Energy AccessNakicenovic

Air Pollution
Health Impacts

2016 #92015

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
1.2%

Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%
Only Energy Security

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Only Air Pollution and Health

Only Climate Change

All Three Objectives

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 20142016 #102015

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Goal #

Description

Goal #

Description

Goal 1

End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Goal 10

Reduce inequality within and among countries

Goal 2End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition andpromote sustainable agriculture

Goal 11Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainableGoal 3

Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

Goal 12

Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 4

Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote
lifelong learning opportunities for all

Goal 13

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

Goal 5

Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

Goal 14

Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
resources for sustainable development

Goal 6

Ensure availability and sustainable management of water andsanitation for all

Goal 15

Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial
ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat
desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt
biodiversity loss

Goal 7

Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern
energy for all

Goal 16

Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable
development, provide access to justice for all and build
effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

Goal 8Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic
growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

Goal 17

Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize theglobal partnership for sustainable development

Goal 9Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainableindustrialization and foster innovation

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2016 #11

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Goal #Description

Goal #Description

Goal 1

End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Goal 10

Reduce inequality within and among countries

Goal 2End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition andpromote sustainable agriculture

Goal 11Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable

Goal 3

Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

Goal 12

Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 4

Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote
lifelong learning opportunities for all

Goal 13

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

Goal 5

Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

Goal 14

Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
resources for sustainable development

Goal 6

Ensure availability and sustainable management of water andsanitation for all

Goal 15

Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial
ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat
desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt
biodiversity loss

Goal 7

Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern
energy for all

Goal 16

Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable
development, provide access to justice for all and build
effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

Goal 8Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic
growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

Goal 17

Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize theglobal partnership for sustainable development

Goal 9Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainableindustrialization and foster innovation

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Nakicenovic

2016 #13
2015

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTGOALS IIASA Partnerships
IIASA Research“Science must be at the heartof this process so as to help
achieve synergies and avoid
conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”

The World In 2050 Initiative

Nexus Solutions Partnership

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2016 #14

The World in 2050
 Global development within a safe and just
operating space and planetary boundaries
 “Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs:
integrated models to sustainability narratives

 Transformational pathways based on existingliterature e.g. SSPs, GEA, SDSN’s DDPP Co-benefits of transformation toward the “safespace” and how to achieve sustainable futures

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Possible Unified Analytical Approach
Proximate Drivers
Population

EconomyTechnology

Scenario
Narratives

Values andNeeds

GovernanceIntegrated
ModelsKnowledge andUnderstanding

Power
Structure

CultureUltimate Drivers
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Source: Raskin, 2002

2016 #16

The World in 2050 “Consortium”● AIMES● Future Earth● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University● Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)● Indian Institute International Futures● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL JGCRI)● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● UN Population Division● UNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)● World Bank
● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● Stanford University● Stockholm Resilience Centre● The City University of New York (CUNY)● Tsinghua University

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2015

Nakicenovic

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2015

Transformation Drivers
Learning from the Past
 Normative goals, visions
Abolition of slavery, participatory governance, EU Crises, “gales of creative destruction”
The Great Depression, financial crises, disasters

 Technology, rapid innovation diffusion
Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution

 Knowledge, research-driven society
Precautionary principle - ozone layer, climate change
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Source: Grubler, 2000; WBGU, 20112016 #19

Cumulative Carbon Emissions
100%
Net-negative emissions
80%

RCP 2.6

60%
40%
20%0%
1850
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1900

1950

2000

2050

2100
2016 #20
2015Cumulative Carbon Emissions
100%
80%

RCP 2.6

60%
40%
20%

0%
1850
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1900

1950

2000

2050

2100
2016 #21
2015

Sustainability Transformation

Transformation Diffusion“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:Sustainable
Future→ Values and norms→ Growing number ofactors of change:•••••green businesses
citiescivil society
science
IGOs (UN etc.)→ Policy regimes→ Increasing problem perception

Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
Time
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Source: WBGU, 20112016 #22
2015

Price of Passenger Transport(per pass-km-hour)

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Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 20032016 #23

Incremental & Disruptive
Technologies
transformational
Steam-powered
Cugnot (1769)

cost
performance

Benz Motorwagen(1885)

We seek technologies
that lead tofundamentally newlearning curves

existing technology

disruptive

Ford Model T(1914)

cumulative output - experiencetime
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Source: Steve Chu, 20132016 #242015

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

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Source: Grubler et al, 20122016 #252015

Global Investment in Renewable Energy
Global new investment
estimated USD 270.2 billion
in 2014(including hydropower USD301 billion)
Reasons for the increase:• Increase in solar power
installations in China andJapan• Investment in solar powerup 25%• Record investment inoffshore wind projects inEurope

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2016 #26

Investment Portfolios
World
No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)

Today

Other
conversion(941bill.)
Renewable
Electricity

Oil

Fossil Electricity

Electricity
Transmission

2005-2010Gas
Coal2050Nakicenovic

Source: Riahi et al, 20122016 #27
2015

Investment Portfolios
World
No Sustainability Policies

GEA-Efficiency(2849 bill.)(2558 bill.)

TodayCCS

Otherconversion(941bill.)
Renewable
Electricity

Oil

Otherconversion

Renewable
Electricity
Fossil Electricity
Efficiency(marginal)

Fossil Electricity

Electricity
Transmission

Electricity
Transmission

2005-2010

Gas

Coal
Gas

Coal

Oil

2050
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Source: Riahi et al, 20122016 #28
2015

Science for Transformation● Better integration across science communities“Climate or development first” approach too narrow● More integrated & holistic assessment of climatechange policy in the context of other priorities:– Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better
understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits– “Nexus” approaches to reach multiple objectives
simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization● Challenges are huge:– Different constraints and priorities across scales– Normative goals for policy prioritization – 17 SDGs
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2016 #29

THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at