Strategies for achieving
sustainable climate goals
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, Moving toward Sustainable Climate
Change Actions, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative
Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International
Forum, Tokyo – 4 February 2014

Two Faces of the Athropocene

Nakicenovic

Astronaut Sunita Williams
2013 #2

The Example of Lighting
250

Energy service

Trillion lumen-hours

250

UnitedKingdom
150

Trillion lumen-hours

200

150

Pounds (2000 £)/ m lumen-hours

Electric-light

Gaslight

Gaslight

010019002000
1500

10050

3000
2500

200

1910

1920 Electric- light
1930

1940

Kerosene -light

50

1000

Price

Electric -light

Gaslight

5000
1800

01900

1825

1910

1850

Nakicenovic

1875

1900

1925

1920

1950

1975

1930

1940

1950

2000

Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 20032013 #3

1950

2012
2012
26 AugustNakicenovic

NASA, 20122013 #4

Nakicenovic

2013 #5

Nakicenovic

2013 #6

Major Challenges of Anthropocene
The industrial revolution led to unprecedented
levels of affluence and production, but also
inequity;
The unintended consequences demonstratesignificant impacts on our social and naturalenvironments transcending planetaryboundaries;
Overcoming these formidable global challenges
requires a fundamental transformation toward asustainable future.
Nakicenovic

2013 #7

Global CO2 Emissions

Nakicenovic

2013 #8

Global CO2 Emissions

Nakicenovic

2013 #9

Global CO2 Emissions

Nakicenovic

2013 #10

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Nakicenovic

GEA, 20122012 #11

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years● # of Reviewer comments: >6000● # of Language Editors:15● # of Copy Editors:15● # of Figures: ~ 650● # of Tables: ~ 380● # of References: >7000● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages● Single volume of 5.5 kg
Nakicenovic

2012 #12

The Key Energy Challenges

Climate Change
EnergySecurity
EnergyAccessAir Pollution
Health Impacts
Nakicenovic

2013 #13

Mobile Phones Charging

Source: Modi, 2011

Nakicenovic

2013 #14

Wood for Cooking

Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013

Nakicenovic

2013 #15

Electrification
100%
Percentage of rural
total population with electricity access

SE4All80%

South Africa
Baseline

60%

USA

BrazilMexicoSE4AllChina

40%
USA Rural

20%

India
South Asia

BaselineSub-Saharan Africa

0%
1900

Nakicenovic

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Source: Pachauri et al, 2012

2020

2040

2013 #16

UnconventionalGas~900-2900 PgC

Cumulative
Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton~500 PgC

Oil~180–280
PgC

Unconv. Oil~300-400
PgC

Biomass~430-460
PgC

Carbon Storage Potential~400-1500 PgC

Gas Hydrates~28,000
PgC

Historcial
Emissions~500 PgC

Preidustrial
Atmosphere~530 PgC

N. Gas~190–240
PgC

Coal~ 10,000 PgC

Present
Atmosphere~800 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012
Nakicenovic

2013 #17 14

Brine Treatment Plant – Conemaugh RiverNakicenovic

2013 #18

2030 Energy Goal
● Universal Access to Modern Energy● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

Nakicenovic

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2013 #20

Global Primary Energy
1200

1000

Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass

800

Mikrochip

EJ

Kommerzielle
Luftfahrt

Nuklearenergie

600
Fernseher

400

200

Vakuumröhre
Ottomotor

Renewables
NuclearGas

Dampf- Elektrischer
maschine Motor

Oil
Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

20002050

2013 #21

Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200

1000800

Einsparungen
Savings
AndereE
Other renewables
Nuklear
Nuclear
GasGasÖl
OilKohle
Coal
Biomasse
Biomass

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~55% renewables by 2030

EJ

Nuclear phase-out (policy)
600
Renewables
Nuclear

400

Gas
Oil

200

Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

2000

2050

2013 #22

Global Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
1200

1000

800

Savings
Other renewables
NuclearGas
OilCoalBiomass

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030

EJ

Limited Intermittent REN
600

400

200Renewables
NuclearNat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS

Gas

Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – negative CO2Oil
Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

2000

2050

2013 #23

Global CO2 Emissions

Global CO2 emissions (PgC)

302520151050-51850

Nakicenovic

1900

1950

2000

2013 #24

Global CO2 Emissions

Global CO2 emissions (PgC)

30252015IPCC Category I
RPC 8.5
RPC 6.0
RPC 4.5RPC 2.6
GEA (SE4ALL)

RCP 8.5

reductions of 35-75% by
RCP 2050
6.0
Peak by 2020

10RCP 4.55

RCP 2.60

almost zero or negative in the long term-51850

Nakicenovic

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2013 #25

Global Mean Surface Temperature

Nakicenovic

Source: IPCC WGI, 20132013 #26

Cumulative Emissions & Temperature

Nakicenovic

Source: IPCC WGI, 20132013 #27

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al, 20122013 #28

“Learning” Through Scale

Learning Rates US Wind Turbines
Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler/Wilson, in press, and ALPS-2012 Report2013 #29

But first, a reminder…
1850

Nakicenovic

1900

1950

2000

2050

Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013 #30 30

Cumulative Experience and Learning:
The Importance of “granularity
Learning rate (% cost change per doubling)

50.0
40.0

A

30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

M J
I F
81295
1110
6

-20.0
-30.0

-50.0
1.E+00

Nakicenovic

4 237

1.E+031K
G C
H E

N-10.0

-40.0

LD

B

Mean of “granular”
end use technologies:
LR=20%
CumProd= 10e9

A Transitors
B DRAMs
C Automobiles
D Washing machinesE Refrigerators
F Dishwashers
G Freezers (upright)
H Freezers (chest)
I Dryers
J Calculators
K CF light bulbs
L A/C & heat pumps
M Air furnaces
N Solar hot water heaters
123456789101112

PV modules
Wind turbines
Heat pumps
Gas turbines
Pulverized coal boilers
Hypropower plants
Nuclear reactors
Ethanol
Coal power plants
Coal power plants
Gas pipelines
Gas combined cycles

Source: Wilson et al, Nature CC, 20122013 #31

Mean of “lumpy”
supply technologies:
LR=10%
CumProd= 10e4
1.E+06
1.E+091.E+12
1.E+15
Cumulative # of units produced

1.E+18

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Nakicenovic

Source: NREL, 20112013 #32

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Nakicenovic

Source: LA Wind, 20112013 #33

Deep Ocean Pumped Storage~ 30m sphere @ 2000m ≈ 60MWh

Nakicenovic

Source: Schmidt-Böcking, 2011; FAZ, 20112013 #34

Nakicenovic

Source: Hasni, 20112013 #35

Global Energy Investments

Annual Energy
Investments

Innovation
RD&D

Markets
Formation

Present
Investments

Investment
for SE4All[billion US$2005][billion US$2005][billion US$2005][billion US$2005]

2010

2010

20102010 - 2030

Efficiency>> 8~5300

260-370

Renewables> 12~ 20200260-410

Access<1<1~940-60

Total

> 50

< 1501250

1780 - 2440

Nakicenovic

2013 #36

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
1.2%

Added costs of ES andPH are comparatively
low when CC is taken as
an entry point

Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)

1.0%

0.8%0.6%0.4%

0.2%

0.0%
Only Energy Security

Only Air Pollution and Health

Source:McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Nakicenovic

Only Climate Change

All Three Objectives

2013 #37

Vision of a Sailing RailwayMonorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828

Nakicenovic

Source: Marshall, 1938

#38

2013