Post Paris U.S. Climate Policy: Economics and Politics
ALPS International Symposium:

COP21 results and Long-term Reductions of Greenhouse Gas Emissions beyond
COP21

Ray Kopp, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
Research Institute of Innovative Technologies for the Earth
Otemachi Sankei Plaza, Tokyo, JapanFebruary 10, 2016

Presentation overview
 Review of the US perspective on the Paris Agreement Comments on the US Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution (INDC)
 Perspectives on the next US INDC
 Challenges facing the US on the road to deep carbon
reductions

The Paris Agreement
 Legal form:Based on pledge and review
Obligation to submit pledges and report progress
No obligation to achieve outcomes
Facilitative compliance 5-year Cycles: pledge, report, review
 Collective goals: 2018 facilitative dialogue on progress towards long-term
goal, thereafter global stocktake 2023, 2028, …
 Pledge (or reconsider) INDC for 2030 by 2020 (9-12 months in advance),then every 5-years with report and review process TBD

 Mitigation: long-term goals
 Limit temperature rise to well below 2 C, pursue efforts to limit to 1.5 C Peak global GHG emissions ASAP Achieve net zero GHG emissions in the 2nd half of the century

The Paris Agreement - continued
 Finance

Copenhagen pledge sets the floor through 2025 (intend to continue collective
goal mobilize 100B$/year by 2020 from public and private sources)
Prior to 2025 establish a new collective goal from the previous floor
TBD: methodology and methods to mobilize, verify and utilize funds

 Loss and Damage
Warsaw International Mechanism (under Adaptation) may be enhanced“…does not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation”

 Carbon Markets

Nations may cooperate in achieving their NDCs, voluntary actions may
include the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes
Establishes a sustainable development mechanism” (CDM+)
Must assure environmental integrity, no double countingThe Paris Agreement - continued
 Carbon pricing
 For non-party stakeholders: Recognizes the important role ofproviding incentives for emission reduction…including …domestic
policies and carbon pricing

 Transparency & CBDR Pledges: Parties communicating their INDCS, in order to facilitateclarity, transparency and understanding, may include, asappropriate, …
 Reports and Reviews: developing countries shall be provided
flexibility… including in the scope, frequency and level of detail ofreporting, and in the scope of review, and that the scope ofreview could provide for in-country reviews to be optional”

US INDC in summary formIs the US on-track?
On the up side
 Increased biological sequestration

On the down side
 Clean Power Plan Leakage, legal challenges, 2017 Congress and President Climate Action Plan Light duty vehicle emission regulation - Vehicle choice andintensity targets

 Additional Measures
 Heavy duty truck regulations
 New Methane regulations
 State-level policies

States Play an Important Role in Efforts
to Reduce Emissions

Taking Stock There are large and significant federal regulatory policies inplace and these policies will lower US emissions.
 However, it is safe to say that it is highly unlikely any factors
will work to increase emissions reductions from that containedin the INDC. That is, it is hard to see the US over-performingwith respect to its current INDC
 Rather, uncertain factors will likely lead to increased emissions.
 Some uncertainty with respect to the path of future US
emissions will be reduced after the current litigation of the CPP
concludes and the next Congress and President take office nextJanuary.

Perspectives on the Next US INDC
 The time is short to define increasedambition
 Assessing the actions of others
 Absence of new existing authorities
 Some potential new authorities

Challenges Facing the US on the Road toDeep Carbon Adjustments Political Lack of harmonized, efficient and effectivepolicies
 Special interests controlling the discussion
 Transportation

Thank you