通し番号は事務局で記入します。

Discussion Papers in Contemporary China Studies, Osaka University Forum on China No.2009-3

International Relations of East Asia in Transition,*and ASEAN, China, the United States and Japan

March 10, 2009

YAMADA Yasuhiro†

大学院生のみが執筆する
場合は，指導教員の許可を受けた旨を明記。

*This paper was originally presented in a slightly different form at the international conference, "The Social Change ofContemporary 'China' and the New International Environment of East Asia" held at National Dong Hwa University in Hualien,Taiwan, on August 26-28, 2008. Sections Ⅰ through Ⅲ were adopted from YAMADA Yasuhiro, "Changing Faces of East AsianInternational Relations and the U.S.-China-Japan Triangular Relations," International Public Policy Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1(『国際公共政策研究』第 13 巻第 1 号), September 2008, pp. 179-188. The author is grateful to the Association for International Public
Policy Studies, Osaka University for permitting the adoption.
†Associate Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, Japan（yamadaya@osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp）

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8．本文と注記で用いたすべての文献を「References」として本文の最後に一括して表示する。
論文の場合は掲載ページを附す。
例）Kang, David C. (2007), China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia
(New York: Columbia University Press).
Lieberthal, Kenneth (1995), "A New China Strategy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74,No. 6, pp. 35-49.
Simon, Sheldon W. (2008), "ASEAN and the New Regional Multilateralism: The Long andBumpy Road to Community," in David Shambaugh and Michael Yahuda (eds.),
International Relations of Asia (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers), pp.
195-214.
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11. 左端と右端をそれぞれ揃える両端揃えとする。

2Introduction
With the Cold War finally coming to an end by the end of 1991, together with the rapid economic
growth of the People's Republic of China (China) in the 1980s, East Asian international relations in theearly 1990s seemed to be experiencing a great transition and instability.

Since then, academics andjournalists have tried to predict how the East Asian international relations in the twenty-first century would
look like, on the assumptions that the end of the Cold War and the rise of China would change international
structure of the region to a great extent and China would come to play a larger role than before in theinternational affairs.
Pessimists predicted that Asia after the Cold War would become a multipolar and unstable region.
To take one example, Aaron L. Friedberg, a political scientist at Princeton University, the United States,
presented this kind of pessimistic view in the early 1990s [Friedberg 1993/1994]. Some even proclaimed
that war between the United States and China would be inevitable [バーンスタイン,マンロー].
Optimists, on the other hand, argued that East Asia would be a more stable region than before for thevariety of reasons.

FUNABASHI Yoichi (船橋洋一), a highly acclaimed journalist of Japan, in his award

winning book, Asia-Pacific Fusion, published in 1995 illustrated dynamic moves toward the regional
integration of Asia that were changing Asia-Pacific international relations and the whole region, thedynamics which Funabashi called "Asia-Pacific Fusion” [船橋].

Amitav Acharya, a political scientist at

Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, argued the international order of Asia in the twenty-firstcentury would become stable.

He pointed out that the development of human and other networks, theincreased level of economic integration, as well as the increased number of nations that share norms ininternational relations in the region were shaping more stable Asian international order [Acharya].
Experiences in the nearly two decades since the end of the Cold War have not yet succeeded in providing
hard evidence to make conclusive judgments on these two diversified views on Asia [Lampton;Christensen 2006; Friedberg 2005; Shambaugh 2005; Mahbubani; Kang; Ross; Goldstein; Lieberthal].
Adding on to those already presented findings and arguments, this paper, yet as another effort toanswer to the question mentioned earlier, tries to portray changing faces of international relations in East
Asia in the past two decades, with focus on key actors, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN), China, the United States and Japan, and interactions among them.

Sections Ⅰ and Ⅱ discussincreasingly growing roles of China and ASEAN in new international order in East Asia.

China

responded to the structural changes of East Asia and managed to change its policies for the region in the
mid-1990s, and China began to engage itself more actively than before in multilateral frameworks in theAsia-Pacific region. China's policy changes, in reverse, have helped to bring China and ASEAN in thecenter of international order of East Asia.

Sections Ⅲ and Ⅳ take a look at the U.S.-China-Japan

triangular relations and inquire into the implications of Taiwan on the relations.

3

Ⅰ. The New International Order of East Asia

節はⅠ…，Ⅱ…，Ⅲ…で示す。
フォントサイズは 12。
項は１）…，２）…，３）…で示す。
フォントは MS ゴシック，フォント
サイズサイズは 10.5。

International order in East Asia witnessed significant changes in the past two decades.

With theCold War coming to an end, expanding diplomatic relations among East Asian nations at the bilateral leveland efforts to bring multilateral frameworks in East Asia firm in place paved the way for new East Asianinternational order.

In 1990 China normalized its relationship with Indonesia and Singapore, while theRepublic of Korea (South Korea) established a formal relationship with the Soviet Union.

In 1991 South

Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) joined the United Nations
simultaneously, and the next year China and South Korea established a formal relationship between thetwo.

The beginning of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) unofficial summit meetings in 1993

indicated the historic tide moving toward the integration of the Asia-Pacific region reached to a higher
level. ASEAN in 1994 organized the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in order to provide opportunities
with the foreign ministers of 17 nations in the Asia-Pacific region and the representative of EU to talkabout security issues in the region. Two years later, ASEAN hosted the first ASEM meeting, the summit
meeting among nations in Asia and Europe, in Bangkok in 1996.

These developments helped to create an

East Asia covered with multilateral and multi-layered regional frameworks and dialogue opportunities inwhich ASEAN was supposed to play significant roles [Leifer].
In spite of great setbacks the Asian currency crisis of 1997-1998 brought to the region's economy,
ASEAN has continued to pursue the integration of Southeast Asia, and has committed to expand
multilateral frameworks on a broader basis with non-ASEAN actors since the late 1990s.

ASEAN

impressively expanded itself and strengthened the regional integrity. ASEAN, originally created in 1967
by 5 Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand), added to its
membership Brunei Darussalam in 1984, Viet Nam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and finally
Cambodia in 1999. After more than 30 years since its foundation, ASEAN accomplished its goal tobecome a truly regional organization that included all the 10 nations in the Southeast Asian region(ASEAN 10).

In 1997, ASEAN adopted ASEAN Vision 2020, which promised to establish "ASEAN

Community" by 2020.

In the same year, in an effort to accomplish that goal, ASEAN began to invite

China, Japan and South Korea to official/unofficial summit conferences and related meetings of ministers(ASEAN+3).

It has also hosted East Asian Summit meetings (ASEAN+3, India, Australia and NewZealand) three times since December 2005.

On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the establishmentof ASEAN, all the ASEAN nations signed the ASEAN Charter in November 2007 [Narine; Simon].
The development of multilateral and multi-layered frameworks in East Asia after the Cold Warchanged the region to a great extent.
with ASEAN in its center.

East Asia is becoming a region covered with the web of frameworks

When one remembers that East Asia in the Cold War years was a region withbilateral "hub and spokes" security arrangements (the "hub" being the Unites States) and the significanceof ASEAN was still limited, one needs to admit that this change is highly remarkable [山本].

4Conclusion
This paper has tried to illustrate changes in East Asian international relations in the past two
decades with emphasis on the role ASEAN and China played.

The responses of ASEAN and China to thestructural changes of East Asia caused by the end of Cold War and the expanded power of China, havehelped to bring on a firm basis the emerging new international order of East Asia with ASEAN (probablyASEAN and China in the near future) in its center. Rapidly rising China is likely to play the role of astatus quo power, and not a destroyer, of the East Asian international order in the first half of thetwenty-first century.
This paper has also examined U.S.-China-Japan triangular relations, and has discussed that thebasic workable understanding on which the three nations can work together to resolve the Taiwan issue doexist.

The three nations and Taiwan seem to be heading for better relations among them for the momentat least.

Improved relations between China and Taiwan and good relations among the four states in theregion are the necessary condition to establish international environment helpful to solve the Taiwan issue,
and to bring out the eventual peaceful unification of China and Taiwan in the future, no matter how distantit really is.

References

図表は本文中に挿入。Figure
1，Figure 2…，あるいは Table
1，Table 2…，と通し番号を附す。

2 行にわたる場合は，ぶら下げ 2 字。

『朝日新聞』1996 年 7 月 24 日（縮刷版）.
青山瑠妙（2007），「中国の地域外交と東アジア共同体−多元的・重層的地域協力関係の構築−」（山本武彦・天児慧編『東アジア共同体の形成 1 新たな地域形成』岩波書店）pp.93-119.
秋田浩之（2008），『暗流−米中日外交三国誌』日本経済新聞社
梅林宏道（2004），「東北アジア安保−米軍支配から法の支配へ−」（磯村早苗・山田康博編『いま戦争を問う−平和学の安全保障論−』法律文化社）pp.243-271.
バーンスタイン，リチャード，ロス・Ｈ・マンロー（1997），『やがて中国との闘いがはじまる』
小野善邦訳,草思社
船橋洋一（1995），『アジア太平洋フュージョン−APEC と日本』中央公論社
松田康博（2004），「中台関係と国際安全保障」『国際政治』135 号 pp.60-77.
山本武彦（2007），「日本の『東アジア共同体外交』と共同体構想−二国間主義と多国間主義の間−」（山本武彦・天児慧編『東アジア共同体の形成 1 新たな地域形成』岩波書店）pp.145-168.
Southeast Asian Affairs 1996 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies).
Acharya, Amitav (2003/2004), "Will Asia's Past Be Its Future?" International Security, Vol. 28, No. 3,
Winter, pp. 149-164.
Bijian, Zheng （2005）"China's 'Peaceful Rise' to Great-Power Status," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 5,
September/October, pp. 18-24.

5大阪大学中国文化フォーラム・ディスカッションペーパー No.2009-3
大阪大學中國文化論壇 討論文件 No.2009-3

東アジア国際関係の変容とアセアン・中国・アメリカ・日本
山田 康博

要旨

冷戦終結後の 20 年間における東アジア国際関係の変容を素描して，ASEAN と中国が，生まれつつある新しい東アジア国際秩序の核となっていることを強調した。また、主として台湾をめぐるアメリカ=中国=日本の三国間の関係に焦点をあてて，これら三国間には台湾をめぐって協調関係を築いていく基盤が存在していることを指摘した。

担当委員（***）

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