Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage2022 Symposium
Climate Change andCultural Heritage:
What's Happening Now?

2022 10.23 日

会場：東京大学弥生講堂一条ホール
主催：文化遺産国際協力コンソーシアム、国立文化財機構文化財防災センター、文化庁
後援：外務省、国際協力機構、国際交流基金、日本イコモス国内委員会、ICOM(国際博物館会議)日本委員会

いま︑何が起きているのか

と
動
変
候
気
産
遺
文化

2022 Symposium

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage
What’s Happening Now?

Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage

Explanatory noteThis report records the contents of the FY2022 symposium “Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’sHappening Now?” held by the Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage (JCIC-Heritage),
Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center, and the Agency for Cultural Affairs on October 23, 2022. This
report consists of transcripts of voice recordings, which have been edited into a report format. All photographs usedwithout sources cited in presentations are provided by the presenters.

We hereby express a sense of gratitude to the experts below for their great contribution to this symposium.
AOKI Shigeo (Honorary Fellow, Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties/ Vice Chairperson, Japan Consortiumfor International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage)

OKADA Yasuyoshi ( Professor Emeritus, Kokushikan University/ Vice Chairperson, Japan Consortium for International
Cooperation in Cultural Heritage)

SEKI Yuji ( Emeritus Professor, National Museum of Ethnology/ Vice Chairperson, Japan Consortium for International Cooperationin Cultural Heritage)

Organizers
Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management
Center, Agency for Cultural Affairs of Japan.
Support
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Japan International Cooperation Agency, The Japan Foundation, ICOMOS
Japan, ICOM Japan
Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage Editorial Board
TOMODA Masahiko (Secretary General)
KANAI Ken (Assistant Secretary General)
CHIU Chunni (Planning, Main Editor)
FUJII Ikuno (Editor)
MAEDA Koki (Editor)
HIRONO Satomi (Assistant Editor)

Contents
Conference Theme and Program… ………………………………………………………………………… 4
Opening Remarks… ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 5

AOYAGI Masanori, Chairperson of JCIC-Heritage
Potential of cultural heritage as the memory of past climate adaptation inferredfrom paleoclimatology… …………………………………………………………………………………… 6
NAKATSUKA Takeshi, Professor of the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University
The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency… ………… 16
William Megarry, Focal Point for Climate Change, The International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS)/ Senior Lecturer, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast

Climate Change and Traditional Knowledge: Case studies from Oceania… ……… 30
ISHIMURA Tomo, Head, Audio-Visual Documentation Section, Department of Intangible Cultural Heritage,
Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties

Panel Discussion… ………………………………………………………………………………………… 36
Facilitator：SONODA Naoko, Professor, National Museum of Ethnology, Japan
Panelist: T ATEISHI Toru, Deputy Director, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center, Japan/
Director, Center for Conservation Science, Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties

NAKATSUKA Takeshi / William Megarry / ISHIMURA Tomo
Closing Remarks…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56

KOHDZUMA Yohsei, Director, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center, Japan

Conference Theme
How is climate change affecting cultural heritage? In the Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural
Heritage (JCIC-Heritage) 2022 symposium, we will look at the impact of climate change from a historical perspective
and consider its relationship to human society, share and discuss issues facing tangible and intangible cultural heritage
under climate change, and explore the possibility of international cooperation for a better future of cultural heritage.

Program
９：15−９：20

 pening RemarksO

AOYAGI Masanori
９：20−10：00

L ecture I
Potential of cultural heritage as the memory of past climate adaptation
inferred from paleoclimatology

NAKATSUKA Takeshi
10：00−10：10

Q&A

10：10−10：50

L ecture II
The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

William Megarry
10：50−11：00

Q&A

11：00−11：40

L ecture III
Climate Change and Traditional Knowledge: Case studies from Oceania

ISHIMURA Tomo
11：40−12：00

Q&A

12：00−13：30

Lunch Break

13：30−15：25

P anel Discussion

Facilitator : SONODA Naoko
Panelist : TATEISHI Toru

NAKATSUKA Takeshi/ William Megarry/ ISHIMURA Tomo

15：25−15：30

C losing Remarks

KOHDZUMA Yohsei

4Opening Remarks
AOYAGI Masanori (Chairperson, Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage)
With COVID-19 rampant on a global scale, online or hybrid meetings are alreadycommon. Today, I am pleased to hold this symposium and meet face-to-face with many
people after such a long time.
Today’s symposium is also delivered online to allow more people to participate. I would
like to take this opportunity to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who is at the hallor participating online.
Recently, with a heightened sense of crisis over global warming and climate change,
there have been many discussions in the international field of cultural heritage protection,such as consideration of countermeasures to mitigate their impact and adaptation measures based on new preservation
concepts, and reevaluation of traditional knowledge as a basis for sustainable thinking. Cultural and natural heritage
sites around the world and the cultural pursuits of people living there are endangered, and there are also moves toreinterpret World Heritage as a system that includes all of these things and consider the possibility of being a rolemodel in modern society under climate change.
In Japan, however, there still seem to be very few discussions and efforts that focus on the relationship between
climate change and cultural heritage protection. How does climate change affect cultural heritage? The Japan
Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage has set up this symposium first for us to understand
together the relationship between climate change and cultural heritage, while considering the coming challenge ofstrengthening international coordination and cooperation to protect cultural heritage against climate change.
Cultural heritage protection so far has been based on a forecasting approach in which the future is forecasted fromthe current state. From now on, however, we need a backcasting approach that considers how we can address theeffects of climate change such as larger-than-expected tsunamis and sea level rises.
For this, this symposium focuses on disaster prevention efforts with many years of cutting-edge experience inconnecting the protection of Japanese cultural properties with climate change. The Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk
Management Center of the National Institutes for Cultural Heritage will participate in a panel discussion with threeother speakers to address the direction for a better future of Japan’s international cooperation in the cultural heritage
field.
After this, I will give a speech in commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the Shinjuku High School. Arounda century ago, the First World War had recently ended and the Taisho Democracy was coming to an end, before theShowa Depression would occur and Japan would plunge into the Second World War.
The current global situation is very similar to those days. Before the situation becomes serious, we should quickly
determine a course of action for climate change and cultural property protection. With the whole world under suchpressure, it is very significant for this kind of symposium to be held.
Thank you very much.

5

Lecture 1

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’s Happening Now?

Lecture 1

Potential of Cultural Heritage as theMemory of Past Climate Adaptation
Inferred from Paleoclimatology
NAKATSUKA Takeshi(Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University)
Before Dr. Nakatsuka got his Ph.D. degree in 1995, he graduated from the faculty of
Science, Kyoto University in 1986 and Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University in
1991. Since being Assistant Professor at the Water Research Institute, Nagoya University,
Associate Professor in Institute of Low-Temperature Science, Hokkaido University
and Professor in Research Institute of Humanity and Nature, he has been working
as a Professor in the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University
from 2018 until now. He has been conducting interdisciplinary research projects on
the relationship between climate variation and human history based on the precise
reconstruction of past climate using tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope ratios. Recently,
he published the following two books. Oxygen Isotope Dendrochronology (Dosei-sha,2021) and Japanese History on Climate Adaptation (Yoshikawa-Kobunkan, 2022).

I am Nakatsuka from Nagoya University. Thank you

from its memory, by carefully comparing my research

for the invitation to this important symposium. I am

results with Japanese history in different periods andneither an expert in the preservation of cultural heritage

cultural heritage in a broad sense (Figure 1).

nor a climatologist who studies the current climate, so I

Cultural heritage, such as landscapes and books,

cannot talk about how cultural heritage is damaged byincludes many things that are considered to be a

global warming and how to prepare for it. My specialty

memory of adaptation to past climate change (Figure

is paleoclimatology: specifically, I am doing research2). For cultural heritage artifacts such as manmade

on reproducing thousands of years of past climate

banks and irrigation channels to prevent flood andchange year by year using the annual rings of trees.

drought disasters, and agricultural books and various

Today, I want to talk about how people responded tocrops to prepare for famine, much research has been

past climate change, how its memory was carved into

conducted in connection with climate change. Suchcultural heritage, and what and how we should learn

cultural heritage artifacts have served as measures

文化遺産国際協力コンソシーアム令和４年度シンポジウム「過去の気候適応の記憶」としての文化遺産＠日本「気候変動と文化遺産―いま、何が起きているのか―」

治水・利水（水害・干害への適応）
・霞堤、輪中・・・
等々
・溜池、用水路・・・
等々

＠東京大学・弥生講堂・一条ホール（2022-10-23）
Potential of cultural heritages as the memory of past climate adaptation inferred from paleoclimatology

古気候学から見た過去の気候適応の記憶としての文化遺産の可能性
中塚 武

農業生産（水干害・冷害への適応）
・農書、多様な作物品種・・・
等々
・義倉、社倉・・・等々（名古屋大学大学院・環境学研究科）
NAKATSUKA Takeshi, Professor of the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University

１.「過去の気候適応の記憶」としての文化遺産とその限界★こうした文化遺産は、実際に、エルニーニョ南方振動現象（ENSO）などによって数年に一度程度の頻度で起こる気象災害への適応に、大きな役割を果たしてきた。

２.「古気候学」から見た東アジアの過去2600年間の気候変動
３.「数十年周期変動」への適応の困難性…先史から近代まで☛しかし現在の温暖化は、更に長い時間スケール（数十年～）で起きている。

４.「文化遺産」に刻まれた数十年周期変動への適応の記憶
多 く の 文 化 遺 産 の 中 に は 、過 去 の 気 候 変 動 へ の 人 々 の 適 応 の 記 憶 が 、 良 い 意 味 で も悪い意味でも刻み込まれている。その記憶からどのように学ぶかが問われている。

Figure 1

61【設問 】過去 に起き た 「数 十年以 上の時 間スケ ールの 気候変 動」 に 対して 、
人間社 会は、 どのよ うに「 適応」 に成功 （失敗 ） し、 その記 憶は 「 歴史の史資料 ∋文化 遺産」 の中に どのよ うに刻 み込ま れてい る のか ？

2

Figure 2

Potential of Cultural Heritage as the Memory of Past Climate Adaptation Inferred from Paleoclimatology

world. Additionally, there was another new finding. As

created intentionally by people in those days to

we focus on fluctuations in cycles of several decades

prevent disasters that occurred once in several years,

such as 16 to 32 years or 32 to 64 years, we can see thatthat is, disasters that people had already experienced.

the amplitude of these fluctuations has increased once

However, the global warming that is happening now isevery about 400 years. This trend was especially clear

a long-time-scale phenomenon, and we cannot always

until the 14th century, and since then, the amplitude has

predict the scale and state of disasters that will occur

continued to be large. Behind this, there is said to havein the distant future. If large climate change occurredbeen a historical change in volcanic eruption frequency,

over a time scale of several decades or more, how did

but here, I want to discuss its social outcomes, not its

people of the past cope with it? How was its memory

causes.

carved into recorded history and cultural heritage in a

Comparing the data of the amplitude of fluctuations

broad sense? To clarify such issues, it is necessary toin decades-long cycles with chronologies of Chinese

correctly understand how climate change occurred atand Japanese history revealed something interesting

various points in the past.

(Figure 5): the increase of the amplitude of

Figure 3 shows a reconstruction of yearly climate

climate changes in decades-long cycles was always

changes in the summer over the past 2600 years based

accompanied by a historical change, such as a reform

on analysis of the oxygen isotope ratio of annualof the political system in China or Japan. This suggests

rings contained in many wood specimens in centralthat climate changes in decades-long cycles may have aJapan. Comparing the obtained data with 20th-century

considerable impact on human society.

meteorological observation data reveals that there is a

Then, let me conduct a thought experiment as tohigh correlation between precipitation and temperature

why human society is susceptible to climate changes

in the summer in a wide area of East Asia. Moreover,comparing these data with archaeology and history
findings in Japan or existing paleoclimatic data on a

中部日本の樹木年輪の2600年間の酸素同位体比の気候学的成分の周波数分解
元データ

broad time scale reveals that past climate change is

64年以上

correctly reproduced on all time scales of from one to a32～64年

thousand years.

16～32年

Figure 4 shows the result obtained by decomposing
the previous data into different periodic components
using a mathematical approach. First, the figure showsthat the climate in Japan has a periodicity of about athousand years, which is in good agreement with the

8～16年
4～8年
2～4年
-600

-400

Summer Climate Index

年輪酸素同位体比の気候変動成分（1961-90年平均からの偏差）

6～7月降水量
JJ Precipitation

1901-2005年の6-7月の降水量・気温との空間相関

6～7月降水量

6～7月気温JJ Temperature

酸素と水素の同位体比の連立方程式を解くことで、短～長期の変動復元に成功！
Nakatsuka et al.(2020)：https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2153-2020
乾暖
Thin：Annual data； Thick：11-year average

-200

-1/1

200

400

600

800

1000 1200

1400 1600

1800

2000

CE

①気候には千年余りの大きな周期性がある。②先史～中世の間は、約400年に一度、数10年周期変動の振幅が拡大する時期が訪れる。中世以降は、ずっと拡大。

4

Figure 4「数十年周期」の変動に着目すると、その振幅拡大の時期が、悉く中国の王朝サイクルや、日本の政治体制の変化に、タイミングが合っていることがわかった。
年輪酸素同位体比の変動

梅雨前線に対応。東アジア夏季モンスーンの指標になる。

数十年

Enhancement of multi-decadal climate variability at every 400 years

already known fluctuations in other regions of the
過去2600年間の本州中部の夏の気候を年単位で復元（Tree Ring Oxygen Isotope Ratio）

Lecture 1of adaptation to climate change because they were

32～64年

点線は、変動の振幅自体の変化を表す。

Multi-decadal summer climate variability

16～32年
CE

Dry
Warm
中国

Yearly summer climate reconstruction for 2600 years
67個体の現生木、古建築材、遺跡出土材、自然埋没木のデータを統合！

湿冷
Wet
Cool

この時系列には、年から千年までの全ての周期の変動が再現されている。 西暦(CE)-1/1
復元された中部日本における夏の降水量の短～長周期の変動は、これまでの日本の考古学や歴史学の気候観や気候の記録を、とても良く説明できる。

Figure 33Chinese (upper) and Japanese (lower) historical tables
日本

こうした発見は、年単位のデータを、数千年分、積み重ねることではじめて可能に！

5

Figure 57

of a change in cycles of several hundred years, people

well as the past, the population that society in a certain

could adapt to the change by lowering the birth rate toregion can support and their living standards must fall

gradually reduce the population, improving agricultural

within the range of the environmental carrying capacity

technology, and increasing farm acreage. However, fordetermined by factors such as the food productiona change in decades-long cycles, which is equivalent toof that region. The sizes of the circles in Figure 6

the lifespan of humans, it seems to have been difficult

correspond to the entire earth for the current globalized

to make such predictions and adapt to these changes.

world and one village for the Yayoi period. It seems thatIn Figure 7, the data of fluctuations on a time scale

in any period, people understood that the populationof less than a hundred years—from several decades

and living standards cannot freely increase beyond theto several years—according to the oxygen isotope

limit of the environmental carrying capacity.

ratio of annual rings in central Japan is compared with

Suppose that at one time, agricultural production

the data on rice cultivation yield in the Edo period.

increases thanks to a good climate. If the climate thenThe upper graph shows the case of present-day Shiga

returns to its previous state in one or two years, people

Prefecture, and the lower graph shows that of present-

would thank God for a temporary abundant crop and

day Yamanashi Prefecture. In both cases, the oxygen

only try to store food. However, if that change were

isotope ratio of annual rings shows a clearly significant

to continue for 10 or 20 years, the improved climate

correlation with the changes in agricultural production,

would come to be taken for granted, and people would

whether on the scale of years or decades. This indicatestry to increase the birth rate and improve their livingthat a summer climate indicated by annual ring data

standards accordingly. This is a change in decades-longdetermined the rice cultivation yield. In other words,

cycles, so at some point, the environmental carrying

changes in the agricultural production of East Asia due

capacity returns to its former level. At that time, it is

to climate change can be reproduced accurately overdifficult to voluntarily lower the population and living

all periods of the past 2600 years for which data on

standards that were increased when during the good

the oxygen isotope ratio of annual rings are obtained.

climate, and consequently various social difficulties

In this way, data on the oxygen isotope ratio ofsuch as famine and refugees arise.

annual rings can be interpreted in terms of changes in

In an age in which fluctuations occur in severalyear cycles, changes can be predicted so that over-affect society in the Edo period?
The upper graph in Figure 8 represents the number

lean year by storing food. Many records of climaticof reported cases of famine across Japan in the Edoadaptation carved into cultural heritage can beperiod. Climate change, that is, changes in agriculturalinterpreted as efforts to cope with such predictableproduction, includes changes in cycles of several years

changes in several-year cycles. Conversely, in the caseas well as several decades, but famine occurred only

人間社会は、何故、数10年周期の気候変動に敏感なのか?
ー作業仮説ー
Carrying Capacity

江戸時代の米収穫量と年輪酸素同位体比（降水量と逆相関、気温と正相関）の関係を調べる

人口・生活水準

人口や生活水準の強強制的な 縮 小⇒飢饉・難民・紛争

④

適応の
環境収容力
失敗
人口・生活水準の維持
Failure ofadaptation(Collapse)

の縮小

環境収容力

Multi-decadal
climate variation

人口・生活水準①の拡大

数 1 0 年と は、 人という生物の寿命に対応する年数 !

環境収容力に見合った人口や生活水準の拡大②

数10年周期の
気候変動

環境収容力

Multi-decadal
climate variation

人口・生活水準の拡大

③

の継続

過適応
Over-adaptation「気候適応の記憶」として
の文化遺産
の大部分❔

乾 3
Dry

年輪d18Oの100年以下の周期成分

Population・
Living Standard

数10年周期の気候変動

2

r = 0.466(直接相関),0.373(10年以上の周期の相関)
水害（Flood）による生産力の低下

Rice productivity 2(Villages in 1.8
West Japan) 1.6

1.4
1.2
1
0
0.8
0.6
-1
Summer
0.4
Climate
湿 -2
近江国（琵琶湖周辺3カ村）の年貢割付帳（鎌谷ら、2016）
Index
0.2
Wet
1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880
1

暖 3
Warm

冷

2
1
0
-1

Cool -2

r = 0.403(直接相関),0.252(10年以上の周期の相関)
冷害（Cold Damage）
による生産力の低下

Rice grain yield 1.6(Villages in
1.4
East Japan)
1.2
1
0.8

SummerClimateIndex

甲斐国（北巨摩郡丘陵地域）の坪刈記録（佐藤、1987）

0.6

0.4
1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880
西暦（年）CE

課税可能生産量(残高)の3カ村間 坪当りの籾収穫量の多数の村のでの平均(期間平均に対する比) 間の平均(期間平均に対する比)

adaptation does not occur, and people can survive a

環境収容力

8

agricultural production. Then, how did those changes

年輪d18Oの100年以下の周期成分

Lecture 1

in decades-long cycles (Figure 6). In the present as

数10年
年周期の変動は、人間の記憶に残りにくいが、人間の寿命の期間内で起きる。
→ 「予測」が難しく、(人口調整などの)「「対応」も難しい。
★“より短周期”の変動であれば、②が生じないし、短期備蓄でも、乗り切れる(予測可能)。
★“より長周期”の変動であれば、④への対応に、時間的余裕がある(対応可能)。
6

共に99.9％以上の有意な正の相関。年輪酸素同位体比から、過去2600年間（弥生前期以降）に亘り日本の農業生産力の数十年以下の周期での変動パターンが、推定可能！

Figure 6

Figure 77Potential of Cultural Heritage as the Memory of Past Climate Adaptation Inferred from Paleoclimatology

will do this in chronological order for as long as time

were at their lowest point. In short, famine occurred asallows.

in the thought experiment with four circles in Figure

The most notable change in the climate from the early

6. However, the response of society to famine was not

to late Yayoi period was humidification and cooling,

simple. The lower graph in Figure 8 represents thewhich occurred in the first century B.C. (Figure 10).

number of peasant uprisings across Japan in the Edo

Although we could infer that this caused a population

period. Until the middle Edo period, uprisings did not

decline and the spread of hilltop settlements acrossoccur if a famine happened, but in the late Edo period,

western Japan, the periods of the most remarkablepeasant uprisings occurred each time famine happened,climate changes in decades-long cycles were theand at the end of the Edo period, fierce uprisings

third to fifth centuries B.C. and the second century

occurred because of increases in the price of rice due to

A.D. Active migration of people can be found in both

crop failures, even if famine itself did not happen. This

periods.

indicates that society’s ability to respond to climate

The former period corresponds to the Warring States
period in China, when people in mainland Chinachange changes over time.
Figure 9 summarizes what happened in Japan in

migrated to Japan with metal tools and rice cultivation

periods in which the amplitude of climate changes in

spread across Tohoku and Kanto, which were thedecades-long cycles increased. In the short run, famine

last areas of the main island of Japan in which riceand conflict occurred in any period, but society’s

cultivation had not been practiced. In this period, rice

response in the long run varies over time. Here, I wantcultivation was not widespread in every corner of theto take a closer look at society’s response, that is, what

Japanese islands, so it can be surmised that for people

adaptation occurred in response to climate change. I

who were engaged in agriculture, migration could be a

0.4
0.2
0.0

r = -0.173 (直接相関), -0.353 (10年以上の周期の相関)
乾・暖 飢饉件数（『藩史大事典』より） 享保
天明

2 Dry・Warm

寛永

1

天保
近江国人口

寛文

20
15

0
-1

25

湿・冷

10

Famine甲斐国人口5

Wet・Cool

30
25
20
15
10
5

-1

湿・冷

Peasant uprising

20

Wet・Cool

百姓一揆発生件数/年0-201580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880
第2次長州戦争 戊辰戦争
3 （1751年以降） r = -0.264 (直接相関), -0.350 (10年以上)
120(1866)（1868）
乾・暖 百姓一揆件数
100
2
Dry・Warm（青木、1971）
80
1
60
0
40

In the latter period, however, rice cultivation was
already practiced all over Japan, so migration of
farmers in search of new land did not necessarily solve
problems and may rather have caused new problems in
new locations. According to Gishiwajinden (Accountof the Wa in History of the Wei Dynasty), a great war,
the Wakoku War, occurred in Japan, which led to thetransformation of the political system represented by
the Yamatai Kingdom.

0-21580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880
西暦（年）CE

共に99％以上の有意な負の相関。特に、数十年周期での気候の悪化（水稲生産力の低下）が、江戸時代でも飢饉や百姓一揆につながった！時代毎に対応の差あり。

solution to problems associated with climate change.

8

Figure 8

Figure 11 shows changes in the number of houses
remaining in areas in Kinki. It indicates that in each

東アジアで降水量の数十年周期変動の振幅拡大が起きたときに
中国では主に“王朝の交代”があったが、日本では“何”が起きた？
ー①短期的対応と②長期的影響（Social Transformation）ー

弥生時代（小国並立）の気候変動と社会の状況[弥生前期⇒中期] ①北部九州の集落分散と戦争 ②稲作民の東方移民

AD2世紀[弥生後期⇒古墳] ①全国での集落分散と戦争②古墳による統合AD6世紀[古墳⇒飛鳥/奈良] ①各地での紛争や飢饉②律令国家の形成

AD9-10世紀[平安前期⇒後期] ①全国での災害と紛争

AD14世紀[鎌倉⇒南北朝]①地域紛争の拡大と内乱②律令制から荘園制へ①米価の不安定化・百姓一揆 ②市場の発展と革命

AD20世紀①農村の疲弊と解体

Figure 93

弥生中期

弥生後期/遷移期

寒冷・湿潤化2

倭国乱

乾・暖
Dry・Warm

10-1

東北・関東へ
の稲作伝播

-3
-4
-600

連合王権

金属器の伝来

-2

-500

-400

増

集落の高地化細線: 年毎の値, 太線: 11年移動平均値

-300

増

-200

-100

生産力減少に伴う人口減少

0
BC/AD

減

減

近畿各地
の集落数

減

（環濠集落・戦争の伝播）

9

古墳

数十年周期変動の拡大期には、活発に人々が移動≒難民化（土器分布から）降水量の数十年周期変動の振幅拡大期に“集落数”や“戦争件数”が増える。

②移民と戦争、敗戦①の短期的な対応には、どの時代でも、災害・紛争・流民の発生等が普遍的に見られるが、②の長期的な影響は、既存の社会の政治・経済・文化等の状況に応じて、時代や地域毎にさまざまに異なる。⇒①と②のそれぞれから学ぶ。

4

九州北部（佐賀）の集落数②武士政権の興亡

AD18-19世紀 [江戸⇒明治][明治⇒昭和]樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化

BC4-3世紀（1961-90年平均からの偏差）

弥生前期

Short-term and Long-term impacts of Enhancement of Multi-decadal Climate Variability in Japanese history

Summer Climate Index

0.6

全国人口
（百万）
日本全国人口 3035

江戸時代の飢饉、百姓一揆と年輪酸素同位体比の関係を調べる

飢饉の報告件数 /年0.8

年輪d18Oの100年以下の周期成分(Summer Climate Index)

国別人口
（百万）
3
1.0

Lecture 1

during a period when changes in decades-long cycles

土器型式の 形成 湿・冷
全国移動
Wet・Cool
100

増

200

300

増

（倭国乱）
増

増

【古気候データからみた作業仮説】 降水量の数十年周期変動の振幅拡大（≒予想できない
水害・冷害の頻発）によって、局所的に「生活・生産環境」が破壊され、一部の人々が難民化し周辺で紛争を引き起こすと共に、劣悪地や遠隔地（九州にとっての東海等）まで、集落が拡大する（集落数の増大・人口の移動）。⇒考古学のこれまでの集落論に対する、新たな視角？

10

Figure 10

9been killed together as the result of some unrest. Suchof climate changes in decades-long cycles increased.

ghastly facts can also be revealed from cultural heritage

Changes in the number of houses are generally

artifacts.

considered to indicate changes in population. If people

In the third century, however, the Japanese islands

are forced to migrate in response to climate changes

entered the Tumulus period (Figure 13), when a large

in decades-long cycles, they must make simple houses

number of gigantic tombs called Kofun (tumulus)

in a new location. Thus, an increase in the number ofwere made. Why did people start to make thesehouses in this period was possibly due to increased

tumuli? Construction of a Kofun required a lot of

migration of people, similar to the spread of earthenware

labor, and thus we could infer that Kofun were initiallyin wide areas. For such cultural heritage remains, ageconstructed as public works to give work to people

dating—including dendrochronology—allows us to

who lost their residences and farmland to flooding

accurately read memories of climatic adaptation.

and came as refugees. Actually, the Yamato Basin, in

The Aoya-Kamijichi site, the remains of a large port

which Hashihaka Tumulus (the oldest keyhole-shaped

village in Tottori Prefecture, may also be the result of atumulus) is located, is less likely to be affected bysecond-century negative adaptation to climate change

flooding because of its geographical features, so it is(Figure 12). At this site, the bones of more than 100

possible that such a place attracted many people.

people with fatal wounds were found. Recent DNA

After that, the amplitude of climate changes inanalysis showed that they were mostly unrelated bydecades-long cycles was small in the early to middle

blood and originated from various places overseas. This

Tumulus period but increased in the sixth century

means that people who escaped as refugees by ship

(Figure 14). The early sixth century saw civil wars

from many regions, including the mainland, may havesuch as the Iwai War in Kyushu and the Musashinokuni-

年輪酸素同位体比の気候変動成分

Summer Climate Index

2
1

ー何のために巨大古墳を作り始めたのか？ー0

Number of Excavated
Human Habitats

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

0
-1/1

100

200

300

(b)

400

摂津
山城

500

河内
播磨

600

巨大古墳の造営は、水害で住居や農地を失い、難民としてやって来た人々に、仕事を与えて、地域の秩序を維持するための公共事業として、
始まった？

CE

和泉
紀伊

＊古代エジプトのピラミッドと同じ？

古代学研究会編（2016）『集落動態からみた弥生時代から古墳時代への社会変化』（六一書房）より(a)年輪酸素同位体比と(b)近畿地方における弥生時代～古墳時代の住居址の数の変遷（年代は土器編年に基づく）の比較。今後、住居址等の年代を、酸素同位体比年輪年代法を使って暦年代化していくことで、気候変動との関係を明確にする❕ 11

水害が激化する紀元2世紀に、最初に作られた巨大古墳は、「晴れの国」である吉備の国の楯築墳丘墓。その後、紀元3世紀につくられた最初の前方後円墳は、「水害の影響を受けにくい」大和盆地の箸墓古墳。以後、前方後円墳が日本中に広がる一方で、政治の中心は、降水量が少なくなり始める（8世紀）までは、基本的に大和に置かれ続けた。

Figure 11

Figure 13

鳥取県・青谷上寺地遺跡の事例－『倭国乱』の跡？

古墳時代（連合王権）の気候変動と社会の状況
弥生時代後期/遷移期

曰を攻住
う立伐ま
。てするそ
てるこの
王こと国
とと、、
な歴七本
す年、男
。、八子
名乃十を
『 づち年以魏志 け共。て倭 てに倭王人 卑、国と伝 弥一乱な』 呼女れしより と子相、・弥生 時代末 期（ 2 世紀） の遺構 から、 百体以 上の殺 傷 痕 の あ る 人 骨 が 見 つ か っ た （ 濱 田 ら 、 2 0 20 ） 。
・その 中の複 数の人 骨の中 には、 脳がそ のまま 腐敗せずに 残って いた（ 殺傷後 、直ぐ に埋め られた ）。
・近年 、この 集団埋 葬人骨 の多数 の個体 の D N A 分析が行わ れ、彼 らが「 互いに ほとん ど血縁 関係を 持たない， 多様な 渡来人 に由来 する人 びとで あり， その人達が まとめ て殺傷 された 」とい うこと が、分 かってきた （篠田 ら、 20 2 0 ） 。

【 可能 性 】① 大陸を 含む多 くの地 域から 交易に より集まっ た 多様 な人々 からな る都市 的集団 が、他 集団との抗 争に敗 れた？ ②大 陸を含 む多く の地域 から避難し てきた 難民た ち が、 まとめ て殺害 された …？

Figure 12

樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化

・日本 海に面 した弥 生時代 の大き な港湾 集落の 遺跡で、当 時の交 易の中 心地の ひとつ と考え られる 。

（1961-90年の平均からの偏差）―

青谷上寺地遺跡とは？

10

大和盆地の集水域は、とても狭い（点線の範囲内）ので、水害による被害を受けにくい

-1
-2
-100

地域毎・時代毎の全住居址数

古墳時代はなぜ始まったのか？

(a)

12

Summer Climate Index

Lecture 1

area, the number of houses increased as the amplitude

古墳時代

13

飛鳥時代

3
2

武蔵国造の争い

倭国乱

乾・暖

★

Dry・Warm

1
0

-2
-3

0
BC/AD

〇

連合王権
形成へ

-1

細線: 年毎の値, 太線: 11年移動平均値
100

200

★

磐井の乱
300

400

【作業仮説】 降水量の数十年周期変動の拡大期に、弥生時代と同様に、集落数が増える。
水害・冷害・干害による生活・生産環境の破壊と人々の難民化が、背景？ 内乱や、それに対する対応も、起きる。

500

屯倉の設置
600

湿・冷
Wet・Cool

700

岡山平野
における
古墳時代
の竪穴住
居数の変
遷（松木、
2010）

14

Figure 14

Potential of Cultural Heritage as the Memory of Past Climate Adaptation Inferred from Paleoclimatology

borrowed from the Shimane Prefectural Archaeologicalperiod, many articles on miyake (Imperial-controlled

Center several years ago. A date around the ninth

territory) appeared in the Nihonshoki (The Chronicles

century was estimated, but actual measurementsof Japan).

showed that the date of the outermost annual ring of the

Miyake is land that consisted of farms andpillar is 534. This is just when the miyake system waswarehouses that were directly controlled by the Yamato

installed throughout Japan, which means that at least in

sovereignty. According to the Nihonshoki, miyake was

Izumo Province, huge buildings were built at that time.

installed throughout Japan in 534 and 535 (Figure 15).

The Ritsuryo system of ancient times was based on

Why were articles on miyake concentrated in these two

Handen Shuju-no-ho, the law of imposing obligations

years? Among researchers of the Nihonshoki, there wasto pay taxes and do military service in exchange fora long-standing interpretation that those articles werelending farmland by creating koseki (Japanese family

fabricated by people in the Nara period who actuallyregistry) of people to manage them. It was believed

wrote the Nihonshoki. However, a totally different

that behind this, there was a very tense situation ininterpretation is possible with regard to climate change:

East Asia due to the defeat by the allied forces of thethe installation of the miyake e system provided a big

Tang Dynasty of China and Silla (Korea) in the Battle

opportunity for the subsequent establishment of theof Hakusukinoe in 663 (Figure 17). However, koseki

Japanese nation under the Ritsuryo codes.

based on miyake were first introduced in the mid-sixth

As an aside, Figure 16 shows the result of using

century, and the equal-field system in China, which

oxygen isotope dendrochronology to analyze a pillar

became the origin of Handen Shuju-no-ho, existed fromroot of a large Heian-period building in the provincial

the late fifth century. Neither system had anything to do

capital of Izumo Province. The pillar root waswith the rapidly changing situation in East Asia.

Lecture 1

no-Miyatsuko Rebellion in Kanto, and around the same

Looking at the relationship between climate change
古墳時代中・後期～飛鳥時代の気候変動と日本史の年表

乾・暖and miyake—including other cases—we find that theperiods in which the Yamato sovereignty improved andexpanded miyake were concentrated in warm periods

壬
申
の
乱
(

in changes in decades-long cycles, like the period when

６
７
２

(

６
０
０

６
６
３
)

)

the equal-field system started in Northern Wei in China

)

５
３
４

1

白
村
江
の
戦
い

)

Summer Climate Index

遣
隋
使
始
ま
る

全
国
５各
３地
４で
・の
５屯
３倉
５の
設
置

(

Dry・Warm

2

(

0

大
宝
律
令

-1

480

５

500 ２520６600 ０620

680

700

CE

)

)

)

４

改乙
新巳
）の
変
６（
４大
５
640 化
660
の

７
０
１
)

７

５
580
８
７

十
七
条
憲
法

)

460

(

440

)

420

(

400

物
部
滅
亡

(

Wet・Cool
-3

仏
教
の
５伝
５来
２ 560
540
５
３
８
・

(

磐
井
の
乱

湿・冷

(

-2

(

樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化（1961-90年の平均からの偏差）

3

屯倉とは大和王権の直轄地（農場と倉庫）のこと

)

武
蔵
国
造
の
争
い

細線: 年毎の値,
太線: 11年移動平均値(

なぜ屯倉（みやけ）は、
この２年間に全国で作られたのか…後世の捏造？

屯倉（Miyake）: farms and storehouse under the direct control of the Yamato dynasty

15(Figure 18). From this, we can consider that after theamount of abandoned agricultural land increased andmany people became refugees during lean years inchanges in decades-long cycles, the miyake system wasinstalled so that refugees could be sent to abandoned

Figure 15
古代日本の『律令制』（中央集権制）の特徴は？

この年代は何を意味するか？

0.6「戸籍」を作って、日本中の全ての人々を政府が管理し、人々に農地を貸し与える代わりに、納税（租庸調）と兵役（防人など）の義務を課した。班田収授法（⇒直後から形骸化し、徐々に荘園などが広がる。）

534 AD (n=274, r=0.516, t=9.93)

0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4

400

600

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

3

32
31

2

30

1

29

0

28
27

-1

26

-2

25
200

對馬ら（2019）

250

300

350

400

450

年 (西暦) CE

Figure 16

500

550

600

24

柱根の年輪酸素同位体比

年輪酸素同位体比偏差（マスタークロノロジー）-0.6-600 -400 -200 BC/AD
0
200

-3

【教科書的な説明】
律令制は、663年の白村江（現・韓国南西部）での唐と新羅の連合軍に対する大敗北が契機となって、激動の東アジア情勢に対抗するために作られた…とされてきた。

灰実線：直接対比、黒点線：トレンド補正

Oxygen isotopic dendrochronological dating of ancient local governmental house

Tree-ring oxygen isotope ratioof ancient pillar

Master chronology oftree-ring oxygen isotope ratio

マスタークロノロジーとのスライド相関係数

Sliding correlation coefficient

史跡・出雲国府（平安時代９世紀の遺構）の柱根の年代決定【反論】① 実際には6世紀（500年代半ば）には、渡来人の技術を借りた蘇我氏が、各地の屯倉において「戸籍」を作り始めたことが知られている。つまり「激動の東アジア情勢」とは別の理由で、戸籍の導入が始まったのでは
ないのか？

16

17

②日本の「班田収授法」は中国の「均田制」を真似たものだが、均田法は5世紀末からあり、もちろん「激動の東アジア情勢」とは関係がない。

Figure 17

11Lecture 1

agricultural land to engage in farming during abundant

not strengthened but rather collapsed and was turned

crop years following the lean years, as was the caseinto a manorial system, and various social disorders,with the equal-field system in China.

especially conflicts between Zuryo (the heads of

The koseki system was started during a cold periodwith changes in decades-long cycles when a great

Kokushi [provincial governors]) and local people,
intensified.

famine occurred. It can be interpreted to have been

The famous Konjaku Monogatari Shu (Tales of Times

introduced to prevent people from escaping and to

Now Past) also includes many tales that mention thecollect taxes during lean years. After that, the amplitude

tyranny, brutality, and greed of Zuryo Kokushi (Figureof climate changes in decades-long cycles decreased20). Behind this conflict between central and local

through the seventh century. After the defeat in theareas were changed in agricultural production due toBattle of Hakusukinoe, the first nationwide family

climate change over a time scale of several decades orregister, Kogo Nenjaku, was made. The purpose of

more, especially the difficulty of adapting to lean years.
The amplitude of climate changes in decades-koseki may also have changed at this point.
In this way, the Ritsuryo system, the greatest

long cycles increased again from the late 13th tointangible cultural Heritage from ancient Japan, can14th centuries (Figure 21). The lower graph shows

also be interpreted as part of climatic adaptation.

the results of an analysis of the Kamakura Ibun, a

After that, the amplitude of climate changes incollection of all ancient documents from the Kamakura

decades-long cycles increased again from the late ninth

period. In it, the ratio of documents including the word

to tenth century, when in China, the Tang Dynasty fell,“Akuto” (villain), which indicates the occurrence ofand in Japan, civil wars occurred in various regions

regional conflict, is compared to the line obtained by(Figure 19). In this period, the Ritsuryo system wasvertically flipping changes in the oxygen isotope ratio

古墳時代～飛鳥時代の気候変動と日本史の年表（別の見方）
(

)

0
-1

『日本書紀』欽明28 (567年)「郡国、大水により飢え、人がお互いに食べあった」

400

420

)

-3

ここで戸籍
の目的がす
り替わる!?

を倉吉蘇
５作で備我
６
戸籍を作り始めたのは、 ９ る 戸 の 氏
籍屯が数十年周期変動の「寒冷期」

湿・冷
Wet・Cool
440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

大
宝
律
令
(

-2

(

Summer Climate Index

巻 ３１ 第 ２２ 話 讃 岐 国 の 満 濃 池 を く ず す 国 司 の こ と空海が作った溜池の魚を労せずして捕ろうとして、国司が堤に穴をあけて水と一緒に魚を流し出していると穴が広がって溜池が壊れてしまい、讃岐国の人々に大きな迷惑をかけた話。

)

６
６
３

)

)

)

樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化（1961-90年の平均からの偏差）(

巻２８第３８話 信濃守藤原陳忠（のぶただ）、御坂から落ちる
任期を終えて京へ帰還する途中、峠で馬ごと深い谷に転落した陳忠は、従者の心配をよそに、上からおろされた籠に、崖に密生しているヒラタケを満載して、引き揚げさせた話。

７
０
700 １

仮説②「戸籍」は“凶作期”における人々の逃亡防止と徴税貫徹のために作られた !!

)CE

仮説① 「屯倉」は中国の均田制（や民屯）と同様に、数十年周期変動の中の“凶作期”に難民化した人々を、“豊作期”に収容して生産に従事させるために設置された !!

巻２９第２６話 日向守、書生を殺す
国司が任地を離れる際に、悪行の記録を隠滅するために、書生に書類の改ざんをさせた挙句、口封じのために殺してしまう話。
巻 ２８ 第 ５話 越 前 守 為 盛 の 六 衛 府 の 官 人 へ の 言 い わ け
下級役人に官給米を支給しなかった国司に怒って館に詰めかけた人たちを、炎暑の中で長く待たせ、少人数ずつ招き入れて、腐った酒や肴を飲食させて腹を壊させ、追い返した話。
平将門の乱（巻25第
第1話
話）や、平
平忠常の乱
関東では国司と住人の軋轢は、今昔物語集でも、平
(巻
巻25第
第9話
話）などの戦乱にまでなっている。

18

20

Figure 18

Figure 20

平安前期（律令制⇒荘園制）の気候変動及び社会の状況

鎌倉～室町時代の気候変動と時代の転換及び社会の状況

平安時代

2

乾・暖
Dry・Warm

1
0
-1
-2
-3

荒地の再開発

荘園制の完成へ

細線: 年毎の値, 太線: 11年移動平均値
700

750

800

850

２）9世紀後半～10世紀末、降水量の数十年周期変動が拡大。

950

★
承
平
天
慶
の
乱

1000

1050

1100

1150

Wet・Cool
1200 CE◎律令制は解体（危機なのに強化されず）
１）「干ばつ」の方が、「寒冷」よりまし？
２）国際情勢の緩和
３）律令制の不合理と荘園制への趨勢４）やや長い気候変動周期⇒出生率抑制
による消極的適応が可能？

Summer Climate Index

Figure 1919

室町・戦国時代

長引く水害で食詰めた農民が都市の足軽に！

2

乾・暖
Dry・Warm

1
0
-1

★

★★

-2

湿・冷

鎌倉幕府の滅亡
観応の擾乱
細線: 年毎の値, 太線: 11年移動平均値
応仁の乱
Wet・Cool-31100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 CE

0.12

悪党誕生の背景にある数十年周期の水害！

0.10

湿
Wet

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00

-3
-2
-1
0
1

Proportion of social
conflict documents

乾
Dry

1175

1200

1225

1250

1275

1300

1325

2

3
1350
CE

◎降水量が増えて、水害が広がる度に紛争が拡大し、やがて戦国時代に至る。

Figure 21

年輪酸素同位体比の気候変動成分（上下反転）

１）10世紀に千年ぶりの大干ばつ。

900

南北朝
時代

鎌倉時代

Summer Climate Index (reversed)◎この時期の気候変動の特徴

★
元
慶
の
乱

湿・冷

Summer Climate Index『国司苛政上訴』の時代

樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化（1961-90年の平均偏差）

3

平安時代

『鎌倉遺文』に占める「悪党」関連文書の割合

Summer Climate Index

樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化（1961-90年の平均からの偏差）

奈良時代

12

平安時代末期に成立したと見られる説話集。
【受領国司の苛酷さ、残忍さ、欲深さを語った説話が数多くある】

最
庚初
午の
年全
籍
国
６的
７戸
０籍
・

白
村
江
の
敗
北
(

)

1

(

Dry・Warm

2

の畿
完内
成地
？溝
と
６各
０国
７屯
倉

倉蘇
を我
拡氏
大が
吉
５備
７の
４屯

(

乾・暖

倉蘇
を我
設氏
置が
吉
５備
５と
５大
～和
６で
屯

(

設全
置国
各
５地
３で
４屯
～倉
５の

)

3

(

細 線 : 年 毎 の 値,
太線: 11年
年移動平均値

今昔物語集

屯倉の設置は数十年周期変動の「温暖期」に集中！

開中
始国
・
４北
８魏
５で
均
田
制

21

Potential of Cultural Heritage as the Memory of Past Climate Adaptation Inferred from Paleoclimatology

side effects such as frequent flooding due to thesee that as precipitation increased, “akuto” activities

development of mountainous regions, but a negative

increased a little later. It seems that an increase inapproach of controlling the birth rate to adapt to a cool

precipitation resulted in flood disasters, and flood

climate may also have been taken in Eastern Japan.

disasters in the middle ages caused regional conflict to

Lecture 1of annual rings. In the late Kamakura period, we can

It can also be estimated from the population statisticsof the Tokugawa shogunate that even in the Edo period,

intensify during disaster recovery.
The Kamakura shogunate was suddenly overthrown

people migrated repeatedly because of changes in

immediately after a surge in precipitation in the 1320s,

their occupation in response to temperature changes.

but even after that, representative civil wars of the

Figure 24 shows an example of present-day Ishikawa

middle ages, such as the Kanno Disturbance and thePrefecture in Hokuriku and compares reproduced

Onin War, occurred each time precipitation increased.

temperature and population data. The data indicate

Behind such civil wars, there was likely a situationthat in a cold period, people migrated to Noto, where

in which farmers who were no longer able to make afishing was active, whereas in a warm period, people

living because of a flood disaster became common footmigrated to Kaga, where agriculture was prosperous.
Climate changes in decades-long cycles broughtsoldiers and went to a battlefield to earn their living.
Flood disasters are generally said to occur due toabout the Great Tenmei Famine, the Great Tempo

heavy rain and because there are houses and rice fields

Famine, and an extremely poor harvest at the end of

in the areas that become flooded (Figure 22). Then,the Edo period. After that time, the climate fluctuated

we must consider that more than ten years previously,

periodically, and poor harvests due to cooling continued

those places had not been flooded. That is, floodin the 1900s and 1930s (Figure 25).

disasters occurred not because of high precipitation but
because of an increase in precipitation over a time scale
江戸時代の気候変動と時代の転換及び社会の状況

of several decades or more. Although disaster recovery

change remain relevant today.
In the early Edo period of the 17th century, thedevelopment of new rice fields resulted in a surge in

Summer Climate Index

middle ages, lessons from the time scale of climate

戦国時代

湿・冷

2

cooling (Figure 23). However, in the middle Edo
period of the 18th century, the population decreased,

4,000

Population

2,000

-3
0
1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 CE

ヤマセの影響が大きな東日本の太平洋側で人口減少。他で増加。
320 West Japan 〇□△; East Japan ●■▲
280
240
200
160
120
80
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875

万人

東奥羽
西奥羽
北関東
山陽
四国
南九州

23

Figure 23

富山（伏木）の8-9月の平均気温（長期トレンドからの偏差）

中部山岳地域の樹木年輪による夏季気温の変動（安江ら、2021）と人口の変化

１） 大雨が降るから。
→だけではない。
２） 大雨が降ったら水に浸かる場所に、家や田んぼがあったから。
→では、何故、そんな場所に家や田を作るのか？
３） そこは、かつて（10年以上前）は、水に浸からない場所だったから。

1.5▲は、全国の国別人口の記録が残っている、幕府による人口調
査の年（13回。1つは明治維新後）を示す。

1.0

0.0
-0.5

SummerTemperature

-1.0
-1.5

1720

1740

1760

Census
1780

1800

1820

能登

400000総人口

温暖期には稲の豊作を反映して、
加賀（農業国）に人々が移動し、寒冷期には、稲の凶作を反映して、能登（漁業国）に、人々が移動した。

0.5

1840

1860

500000

つまり、水水 害 は 、 単 に 降 水 量 が 多 い こと で 起 こ る の で は な く 、
降水量が変動し、乾燥気候が、湿潤気候に変化すること で起きる。

Figure 22

全国の人口

細線: 年毎の値, 太線: 11年移動平均値

cold. Behind this, there seems to have also been

水害は、冷害と異なり、被害が必ず空間的に不均質に生じる！
地域社会で、復旧・復興を巡って、格差（不公平）が発生する。
政治が悪いと、（数十年より長い周期でも）紛争に発展する！

8,000
6,000

-1

⇒しかし、寒冷化は東日本で顕著であり、人口の変化には
地域的な格差が大きかった！

mainly in Eastern Japan, which had originally been

全国の石高

0

-2

万石

万人
Rice
Production 10,000

開発・拡大 ⇒ 停滞（開発の副作用
の面も…）

1

江戸時代前期は、寒冷化にも拘らず、新田開発により、石高と人口が急増。江戸時代中期は、人口は停滞。

food production and population despite global climate

ところで、水害は、何故起こるのか？

近
代

江戸時代

乾・暖
樹齢効果だけを差し引いた年輪d18Oの変化（1961-90年の平均偏差）

methods differ greatly between the present day and the300000

1880

CE

加賀

Population

200000100000
0
1720

22

1740

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

西暦（年） CE

1860

1880

近世にも近隣の諸国間で、生業の多様性を反映
した、人口の流動が生じていた可能性がある !
しかし、この関係
性は18世紀まで。
19世紀になると、経済の構造が、変わってくる。

24

Figure 24

13

The upper graph in Figure 26 shows the temperature
Lecture 1

data of Hakodate, where meteorological observations
were made first in modern Japan, and information
on changes in the total number of migrants from

faced the difficult challenge of adapting to climatechanges in decades-long cycles (Figure 27)?
Here, I want to first consider the reasons for society’s
vulnerability to changes in decades-long cycles.

Japan to Manchuria or other overseas locations.

Figure 28 shows a sketch that appeared in Figure

Modern migrants have various economic and political

6. This cycle also includes the key determinant ofbackgrounds; similarly, in cold periods during which

success or failure in adaptation to climate change,

poor harvests continued, agricultural villages weresuch as global warming that will happen from now on.

impoverished across Japan, which resulted in an

That is, how should we control over-adaptation whenincrease in the number of immigrants to overseas.

the environmental carrying capacity is increased?

At that time, Japan, led by the military, tried to solve

Conversely, how should we avoid collapse when it is

the problem of surplus population in domestic rural

reduced? Then, how can we promote restoration after

communities by invading the mainland but lost a large

a decrease in the environmental carrying capacity?

number of soldiers who were from rural communities

For these issues, we can consider various perspectives

in battle. In a sense, this outcome was the same as thatsuch as the diversity of occupations, peaceful and justin the middle ages, or it was a system that was worse

society, and tolerance for refugees and can also assume

than that of the middle ages.

that results of what was actually tried in society in the

We have taken a quick view of the history of climatic

past are embedded in cultural heritage.

adaptation in the Japanese islands since the early Yayoi

What we assume here is that climate changes inperiod. What and how should we learn from cultural

decades-long cycles—that is, changes in productivity—

heritage, that is, memories of our predecessors who

provide opportunities of collapse and regeneration at

近代の農村にも、気候変動の影響は続く！
－江戸時代の延長としての生産力の周期的変動－「数十年スケールの気候変動への適応」という極めて難しい課題に向き合った

山梨県北巨摩郡の坪刈記録（佐藤1987）から
中部日本（富山伏木）の8－9月気温（偏差）（安江ら、2021）

Summer Temperature

2.5

Rice grain yield

1

2.0

0

1.5

-1

1.0

-2
-3

天
保

天
明
1770

1790

1810

1830

一
九
年〇
代〇

幕
末
1850

1870

1890

一
九
年三
代〇

1910

山梨県北巨摩郡浅尾村の坪当たりの稲籾収量（升/坪）

2

0.5

1930

1950

0.0

先人たちの悪戦苦闘の記憶（≒文化遺産）から
我々は何をどのように学び取れるのか？
From the memories of the struggles of our ancestors (≒ cultural heritage)
What and how can we learn?

まず、「数十年スケールの気候変動」に対する

1900年代と1930年代は、天明、天保、幕末に続く社会の「脆弱性の理由」から、考えてみる。

農産物の＜デフレ・恐慌による価格低下＞と＜収量減少＞のダブルパンチ！

Thinking from the "reasons for vulnerability“ of societies
against “multi-decadal climate variability”『寒冷期』であり、『凶作期』であった。

25

Figure 25

Figure 27

6-8月の平均気温

21

温暖期

寒冷期

温暖期

寒冷期

60000

20

Warm

Cool

Warm

Cool

50000

19

40000

18

30000

16

Overseas
Immigrants
from Japan

15
1870

1880

20000

海外移民

◆
1890

6-8月平均移民合計（11年移動平均）・農村復興の運動（農本主義）と軍部ファシズムの結合⇒5.15事件（1932年）⇒2.26事件（1936年）★大陸侵略により「過剰人口問題」の解決を目指した…
・戦争の激化による「過剰人口」自体の消滅（1941年～）

◆

★★

1900

人間社会が数10年スケールの気候変動に脆弱である理由
Carrying Capacity

移民数/年

JJA Temp in Hakodate

函館の気温（気象庁データ）と移民の数（国際協力事業団『海外移住統計』ほか）の変遷

17

満州移民10000
Total◆ 0 Immigrants（11年移動平均）Immigrants★
★★
★ ★ ★ To Manchuria
移民合計

1910

1920

1930

6-8月平均（11年移動平均）

合計

日本からの海外移民人数

満 州 へ の 移民

〇満州移民の政治的背景
・満州国建国（1932年）
⇒軍による移民の要請
・ブラジルによる移民の受入停止（1934年）⇒満州移民への転換

1940

from Japan（★凶作）★ Crop failure

戦死者（大部分は農村
出身）の数は
日清戦争◆ ～1万人
日露戦争◆ ～10万人
第２次大戦◆～200万人と桁違いに増大した。

中世（戦国時代）と同じメカニズム！ 兵役は義務なので、中世より深刻。

1426

数10年周期の気候変動

環境収容力
Population・
Living Standard

崩壊
Collapse

or
再生 !?

環境収容力
人口・生活水準

人口・生活水準の拡大
気候変動へ の適応の成否 の 鍵 は
このサイクルにある

人口や生活水準の強強制的な 縮 小⇒飢饉・難民・紛争

Rebirth?

「温暖期に増えた農村人口」を「寒冷期に移民のみならず、戦争でも消耗する」！

Figure 2627

数10年周期の気候変動

環境収容力
人口・生活水準の維持の縮小

環境収容力に見合った人口や生活水準の拡大
環境収容力
人口・生活水準の拡大

What is therole of culture?

過適応Over-adaptationの継続

１．「過適応」を抑制できる文化とは？⇒ 生業の多様性 等々
２．「崩壊」を回避できる文化とは？⇒ 平和と公正性 等々
３．「再生」を促進できる文化とは？⇒ 難民への寛容性 等々

Figure 2828

Potential of Cultural Heritage as the Memory of Past Climate Adaptation Inferred from Paleoclimatology

the same time for human society (Figure 29). Japaneseheritage that correspond to it.
We have succeeded in reproducing the past 2600

adapt. We can consider that it was possible to control

years of climate year by year by using the oxygen

over-adaptation in periods in which there was a wideisotope ratio of annual rings of trees in central Japan,

variety of occupations and food resources and that it

and in this process, we found that human society is

may have been possible to avoid collapse in periods

especially vulnerable to climate change on a scale ofin which peace was emphasized, for example, by

several decades. Comparing the paleoclimatic data ofhelping refugees through public works. In periods inannual rings with the history and cultural heritage of

which it was possible to maintain a peaceful society

the Japanese islands makes it possible to read memories

by positively accepting foreigners, it seems to haveof success and failure of people who faced climate

been possible to promote regeneration. More carefulchange on a scale of several decades.

and comprehensive research is required to learn

For us to learn from memories of climatic adaptationfrom the experiences of past societies, and all issues

that were carved into cultural heritage, it is necessary

will be challenges for the future. I think that the key

to understand our predecessors’ activities from thephrase common to all issues is perhaps “emphasis on

perspective of the mechanism of society’s vulnerability

diversity.”

to changes in decades-long cycles.

Today, I spoke about several things in a short time
(Figure 30). Many cases of cultural heritage were

Lecture 1

history seems to include many examples of failure to

In conclusion, I thank you very much for yourattention.

intended as adaptations to short-term climate change.
Global warming has a time scale of several decades or
more, so it is important to follow memories of cultural
過去に起きた数十年（或いはそれ以上）の周期の大きな気候の変動への社会応答の「成功」と「失敗」から学べる事とは？
●共通の理解数十年周期の変動（自然と社会環境の変動）は、人間社会にしばしば大きな影響を与える。それは、崩壊と再生のきっかけを、同時にもたらす。

●日本史から現代社会への教訓…失敗例が多いが敢えて成功例を探すと…
１）「過適応」を抑制する To suppress “over-adaptation”⇒多様な生業の存在（江戸後期など）；多様な食糧源の存在（縄文時代）等々・・・

２）「崩壊」を回避する To avoid “collapse”⇒公共事業で難民救済（古墳時代、江戸時代）、平和の重視（平安・江戸時代）等々・・・

３）「再生」を促進する To promote “rebirth”⇒渡来人の重用（古墳時代）、平和下での復興（江戸前期、昭和後期）等々・・・★真の教訓を探し出せるかどうかは、今後の多くの人々による歴史の探索に掛かっている。

共通するキイワードは「多様性」の重視❕❔（含む難民の許容）まとめ
１．前近代の社会には「数年に一度程度の頻度」で起きる気候災害に対応できるように意図された、治水・利水や農業生産に関わるさまざまな事物（有形・無形の文化遺産）が存在していた（気候適応の記憶）。しかし、現在の地球温暖化はそれよりも長い時間スケールでおきているので、過去の気候適応の手法が、そのまま有効である保証はない。
２．近年、中部日本の樹木年輪の酸素同位体比を使って、過去2600年間に及ぶ年単位での東アジアの夏の気候の変動を復元することに成功した。そのデータからは、「数十年スケールの気候変動」に対して人間社会は最も脆弱であることが示され、理論的にも、その意味が理解できる。
３．数十年スケールの気候変動に対峙した先史から近代までの日本列島の人々の営みの記録（歴史∋文化遺産）からは、時代ごとに様々な気候への適応が試みられて、成功と失敗を繰り返してきたことが分かる。
４．我々が過去（歴史∋文化遺産）の気候適応の記憶に学ぶには、数十年スケールの気候変動への社会の脆弱性の本質的な原因から、過去の人々の営みの意味を理解する必要がある。その際には①過適応を抑制できる文化、②崩壊を回避できる文化、③再生を促進できる文化とは何なのかについて
気候適応の記録（∋文化遺産）から学んでいくことができるはずである。

30

The common key word may be the emphasis on “diversity“, including acceptance of refugee. 29

Figure 29

Figure 30

15

Lecture 2

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’s Happening Now?

Lecture 2

The Futures of our Past: Cultural

Heritage and the Climate Emergency
William Megarry(Senior Lecturer, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast
Focal Point for Climate Change, The International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS))

As a landscape archaeology and heritage management specialist, he has always had a keen interest in the relationshipbetween people and their surroundings. Following an undergraduate degree in ancient history from Trinity College Dublin
and a master’s degree in geospatial analysis from University College London, he completed a Ph.D. in Dublin exploring
prehistoric landscape modeling before working in commercial GIS consultancy for a number of years. In 2014, he traveledto the USA on a European Marie Skłodowska-Curie post-doctoral fellowship to explore the intersections between
heritage management, remote sensing and geospatial analysis. Around this time, he became increasingly concerned about
the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage, a research topic he has continued to explore during his subsequentand current academic position at Queen’s University Belfast. He has been a member of the ICOMOS Working Groupon Climate Change and Cultural Heritage since its inception in 2016 and in 2021 he became the focal point and working
group lead. He has led projects exploring climate communication, traditional ecological knowledge and - most recently developing new tools to assess the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites and properties to climate change.

Good morning, everyone. Allow me to begin bypromote its immense value to climate action.

thanking the organizers of this important event. I wouldThis presentation will begin by contextualising thelike to thank the Japan Consortium for International

current policy and practice landscape before exploring

Cooperation in Cultural Heritage in particular forthe topic of loss and damage, focusing on how ourthis opportunity to speak, Dr. ISHIMURA Tomo fortangible cultural heritage is impacted by climate

recommending me, and Dr Jenny Chiu for arranging

change (Figure 1). It will then explore some key

and organizing my attendance here so perfectly. This isemerging themes; specifically, the need for new tools

my first-time visiting Japan, and it is a great honor toand methodologies to record sites and assess theirbe here with you all today.

vulnerability to climate impacts, drawing on examples

This conference – ‘Climate Change and Cultural
Heritage: What’s Happening now?’ - is a timely eventfrom a recent project focused on African World
Heritage properties.

happening at a key time in the climate emergency.
The last few years have seen an acknowledgment of
the role in cultural heritage in climate action, manifest
in the increasing focus on loss and damage for bothcountries and communities, and the importance

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage andthe Climate Emergency
CIC-Heritage 2022 Symposium
Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’s Happening Now?
23rd October 2022

of adaptation planning at last year’s Conferenceof Parties in Glasgow. In the build up to the 27th
Conference of Parties in Egypt next month, there isa growing movement within the heritage sector, led
by organizations like the International Council on(Photo: Adam Markham)

Dr William P Megarry PhD, FSA, FHEA

Monuments and Sites (or ICOMOS) and the Climate
Heritage Network, to put culture on the agenda and
16

Figure 1

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

cumulative memory of humankind and the memory of

I am an archaeologist by training with a particularcommunities, and it is the thing from which many of us

interest the archaeology of island cultures in prehistory.

derive our identities. As such, it gives us a grounding in

I currently run a research project exploring Neolithic

the world. Without it, people lack that anchoring, thatpolished stone tool production on the Shetland Islands

sense of identity and that sense of community. Culturalin Northern Scotland. Like most archaeologists, I am

heritage is the glue that holds us all together.

probably more comfortable in boots and a woolly

The second response is that culture allows us tosweater than in a suit; however, over the last decaderealize and understand climate change in a people-– as the impacts of the climate crisis became morecentered and relevant way. For many, climate change

evident in the places where I was working - muchcan be overwhelming, and people very quickly get lostof my time has focused on the intersection between

in a forest of scientific terms and doomsday predictions.

cultural heritage and climate change. I am now the

Culture and heritage are about people and things which

focal point for climate change at ICOMOS and leadare important to people. It is an immense asset intheir Climate Action Working Group. This has overencouraging action and promoting change.

100 members from around the world and is committed

The final response is that heritage can act as a lens,to equipping the heritage sector to respond to climate

through which we can explore many associated angles

change by realising the huge value of culture to climate

on climate change including justice, livelihoods,

action. I am also an expert member of the ICOMOS

migration, mitigation, identity, loss, impacts, solutions

International Committee on Archaeological Heritageand of course urgency. Culture is embedded in every

Management (ICAHM) and a member of ICOMOS

aspect of our lives and cannot be ignored. Moving

Ireland, my national committee.

culture from the periphery to the center of our climate

When discussing the subject of climate change

conversation results in more effective and inclusiveand culture I am often asked why, during a climate

climate action. It can be considered the ‘missing link’

emergency with so much suffering around the world,in our global response.

we should be concerned about cultural heritage at all.

This importance and value of cultural heritage toThis is a valid question and one that we must be able toclimate action has already been acknowledged by theanswer. And there are many responses, but I would likeinternational climate change community, albeit in ato focus on three of relevance to our discussions today

limited manner, in Article 7.5 of the Paris Agreement(Figure 3).

which makes the link between adaptation planning

The first, is that heritage anchors us in place. It is the

Personal Introduction

Lecture 2

But first, allow me to introduce myself (Figure 2).

and indigenous and local knowledge (Figure 4).

Climate Change: Why Heritage?

• Culture is the cumulative memory of humanity which anchors us andgives us a sense of community. Its loss is acutely felt.
• Cultural heritage is about people and things which are important topeople. It humanises climate change and makes it people-centered.

• Cultural heritage is a lens through which we can understand wider issues
associated with climate change.

Shetland, Scotland (Photo: Stone 2022)

Majuli, India (Photo: Megarry 2017)

Figure 2

Figure 317Lecture 2

More recently, it was further emphasized during thecontinents, with 40% of the participants coming from

COP 26 in Glasgow which stressed this value as partthe Global South. They included representatives fromof the Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh Work Program on

natural and cultural heritage, and climate scientists.

the Global Goal on Adaptation. Specifically, it called

Indigenous Peoples and local communities were also

on governments to, ‘take into account traditional

well represented.

knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local

This meeting has really set the agenda for theknowledge systems’ when devising adaptation plans.

coming decades and was summarised in our Global

This initiative raises the importance of adaptation,

Research and Action Agenda on Culture, Heritage

putting it on a par with mitigation within the IPCC

and Climate Change which was published last month.

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The

It is available to download, alongside three White

Glasgow COP was also important because it switched

Papers commissioned for the meeting, from the Project

the focus to loss and damage including a conversation

website and from the ICOMOS Archive (Figure 5).

on how states’ funds can be used to support the

A huge amount of the conversation on climate change

most vulnerable. These discussions included - albeit

and cultural heritage focuses on the subject of loss

indirectly - impacts on cultural heritage as non-(Figure 6). While responding to the conservation

economic losses.

and preservation challenges posed by climate changeThis insertion of culture into climate debates wasis critically important, it is only one side of the coin.

a key part of our recent International Co-Sponsored

Already today, you will have heard me refer to culture

Meeting on Culture, Heritage and Climate Change,
which was a collaboration between ourselves at

International Co-Sponsored Meeting on Culture,
Heritage and Climate Change (December 2021)

ICOMOS, UNESCO and the IPCC. This meeting wasa response to growing calls for international attention
to culture, heritage and climate change from acrossthe sector, including heritage advisory bodies and the
UNESCO World Heritage committee. They were arecognition that significant gaps exist in understanding
the role of culture and heritage in global climate scienceand climate change responses and aimed to put culture

https://www.cultureclimatemeeting.org/

at the heart of the climate conversation. Over 120
Figure 5participants attended from 40 countries across all six

Cultural Heritage and Climate: An ICOMOS Perspective

Cultural Heritage – A Recognized Asset to Climate Action
Emphasises,i)…that cultural heritage is both impacted by climate change and a source of resilience forcommunities;ii)

that heritage sites as well as local communities’ intangible heritage, knowledge andpractices constitute an invaluable repository of information and strategies to address climatechange, even while those resources are themselves at risk from climate impacts;iii) the value of cultural heritage-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
ICOMOS Resolution 19GA 2017/30 (Delhi)‘Parties acknowledge that adaptation action should follow a
country-driven, gender responsive, participatory and fullytransparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable
groups, communities and ecosystems, and should be based on
and guided by the best available science and, as appropriate,
traditional knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples andlocal knowledge systems, with a view to integrating adaptation
into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies andactions, where appropriate’
The Paris Agreement, Article 7.5

Decides that activities carried out under the work programmeshould build on the work of the Adaptation Committee related
to the global goal on adaptation, draw on a variety of sourcesof information and inputs, including national adaptation plans
and adaptation communications, take into account traditional
knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local
knowledge systems, and be gender-responsive.

Recognizing the immense potential of cultural heritage to enable inclusive, transformative and justclimate action, including through heightening the ambition and capacity of communities to act,
supporting climate adaptation and resilience, contributing to mitigation interventions to reduce GHG
emissions, and addressing loss and damage from climate impacts;

Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on the Global
Goal on Adaptation, Article 9

Resolution 20GA/15 - Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency(Photo: The Architects Journal)

Figure 4

18

Figure 6

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

well-known castles in the world. Climate impacts

than once. This is a key part of our message and visionin Edinburgh are largely due to rapidly changing

in ICOMOS and is central to all our activities in the

precipitation patterns. Rainfall has increased in bothWorking Group. We were amongst the first major

volume and intensity, and this is resulting in bothheritage organizations to declare a climate emergency

the leakage and inundation of buildings, and thein 2020 and we firmly believe that culture is a source

undermining of structures due to increasing sub-surfaceof resilience for communities facing climate impacts,

water logging. Conversely, Edinburgh castle, andand can enable inclusive, transformative and justWorld Heritage property as a whole, is also a very goodclimate action. This is outlined in all our outputs andexample of how historic buildings can be retrofitted

projects, including in the text of our climate emergency

for carbon efficiency and serves as an international

declaration.

exemplar for adaptation planning.

That being said, climate impacts and loss – especially

The second property I want to look at is Rapa Nuito tangible heritage – is an important place to start our

National Park (Figure 8). Also inscribed in 1995,

climate heritage journey today. I would like to explore

its iconic moai and ahu are amongst the best known

this topic in more detail by exploring direct climate

archaeological objects in the world and are instantly

impacts at four World Heritage properties. These

recognisable to many. Situated on the coast looking

properties were featured in our 2019 “Heritage on theout to see, they are at immediate and ongoing risk

Edge” project, which worked with Google Arts andfrom rising sea-levels and coastal erosion caused by

Culture and CyArk, to promote climate awareness andincreased storminess. Well publicised fires in recent

action through story-telling at iconic world heritage

weeks have illustrated that these sites often faceproperties. These properties were chosen as they

complex risk profiles aside from direct climate impacts.

represented a range of heritage typologies and threat

The third property I would like to explore is the

profiles. They do not address the myriad complex

Historic Mosque City of Bagerhat in Bangladesh

indirect impacts of climate change as these tend to(Figure 9). Built in the 15th century on the edge of the

impact intangible cultural traditions to a greater degree.

Sundarbans, a vast riverine Delta in the Bay of Bengal,

The first property I’d like to look at is the Old andthe site was inscribed on the World Heritage list in

New Towns of Edinburgh (Figure 7). Inscribed on

1985 and continues to be a living site and landscape,the World Heritage list in 1995 as a ‘remarkablecentral to local and Bangladeshi national identity. Whenjuxtaposition of two clearly articulated urban planning

constructed, the designers used materials sympathetic

phenomena’, the property includes one of the mostto the landscape and the environment including stone

Old and New Towns of Edinburgh

Edinburgh Castle, Scotland (Photo: Google Arts and Culture 2019)

Figure 7

Lecture 2

as an asset in our response to climate change more

Rapa Nui National Park

Rapa Nui (Photo: Google Arts and Culture 2019)

Figure 819Lecture 2

foundations which prevented water-logging of the brickera. Climate impacts at the site are complex as werearchitecture. Rising water levels in the delta have begun

exacerbated by other issues including land use. They

to permeate into the red brick walls. This is resulting ininclude coastal erosion due to rising sea levels anda process called efflorescence where salt concentrations

increased storminess. Alongside other factors, thesein the brick lead to their degradation. Removing theresulted in the site being placed on the World Heritage

salt is both time-consuming and costly. Once built toin Danger List in 2004. Adaptation measures – which

adapt to difficult climatic conditions, Bagerhat is a

we shall return to later in this presentation – resulted

clear example of the stresses sites are now facing due

in the site being removed from the World Heritage into anthropogenic climate change.

Danger List in 2014.

Situated on the east coast of Tanzania, the Ruins

These four examples have focused on extant

of Kilwa Kisiwani and Ruins of Songo Mnara Worldarchaeological or historical sites but heritage sites

Heritage property is a quite well-known example ofcome in many different forms. Figure 11 contains

climate vulnerability and adaptation (Figure 10).

examples of such properties from three continents.

Inscribed on the World Heritage list in 1981, it bears

They are the Coffee Cultural Landscape of Colombia,

exceptional testimony to the expansion of Swahili

the Rice Terraces of the Philippine Cordilleras and thecoastal culture, the islamisation of East Africa and theChampagne Hillsides, Houses and Cellars of France.

extraordinarily extensive and prosperous Indian Ocean

These are all landscapes where production aligns

trade from the mediaeval period up to the modern

with living traditions and they are some of the mostvulnerable to changing climates. Having evolved within

Historic Mosque City of Bagerhat

specific climates, changes can be acutely felt. The
2019 State of Conservation report for the Champagne
Hillsides noted potential impacts on both the quality
and quantity of the wine, but also on long establishedcultivation practices. To make a difficult situation
worse, adaptation is particularly difficult in these cases
where changing climates can render entire crops andtraditions associated with harvesting and production
irrelevant. There is no protective wall tall enough to

Bagerhat, Bangladesh (Photo: Google Arts and Culture 2019)

Figure 9

Ruins of Kilwa Kisiwani and Ruins ofSongo Mnara

reduce this impact and these landscapes risk losing
their outstanding universal value through no fault of

Climate Change and Landscapes of Production

Cafetales,Triángulo del Café, Colombia (Photo: CC BY 2.0)

Batad Rice Terraces, Philippines(Photo: Seventide CC BY-SA 4.0)

Hautvillers Abbey (Photo: Michel Guillard/Association Paysages du Champagne)

Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzania (Photo: Google Arts and Culture 2019)

Figure 10

20

Figure 11

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

their own and with little ability to respond.

precipitation. Both take extra resources, but the latter
category is far more cost-efficient if instigated far

will impact every heritage site on the planet andenough in advance. Key in all adaptation planning is

forward planning is key to our response (Figurea robust and site-specific framework based on the best12). One of the main challenges in cultural heritage

possible understanding of both the site and of climate

management is deciding how we respond to thesescience.

impacts. Climate change is not like other threats

In a small number of cases a site may be of suchand existing tools may not be suitable to respond

importance as to necessitate the expenditure ofto this new challenge. The need for new tools andconsiderable resources. Impacts to these types ofmethodologies was one of the key findings from oursites (often World Heritage properties) evoke aseminal 2019 report Future of our Pasts, and many ofparticularly emotive public response, often nationally

our efforts in recent years have focused on developing

and internationally. Responding to these impacts can

new approaches and methodologies customized to the

be both costly and difficult, especially for countries

climate crisis. Central to this task is understanding how

struggling with other priorities.

we respond to the threat of climate change at cultural

Finally, there are some sites which we cannot save. In

heritage sites. As no two sites are the same, our tools

reality, the number of these sites is far greater than weand methodologies must be malleable and adaptable.

know as most are lost before they are even recorded.

One way to think about this is to use a medical

In cases like this, we must rely on conservation bymetaphor and to triage sites based on our ability torecord, preserving what we can about a site, rather thanrespond. Within this model, it is hoped that the vastpreserving the site itself. It is an unpleasant reality ofmajority of sites can be preserved and protected

the climate crisis, that we are and we will lose much ofthrough proactive adaptation and forward planning. In

our heritage to rising global temperatures.

some cases, reactive measures can also be applied andFrom a climate perspective, the IPCC definition ofthis may be especially important in rapidly changing

adaptation is ‘The process of adjustment to actual orenvironments like coastlines. While sometimes

expected climate and its effects. In human systems,

adaptation planning involves expensive and time-

adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit

consuming interventions, the vast majority of adaptive

beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems,

measures can be built into existing conservation plans.

human intervention may facilitate adjustment to

These might include more regular cleaning of drain

expected climate and its effects’. One good example ofpipes or wall consolidation in response to increasing

where reactive adaptation planning has been successful

Lecture 2

Either directly or indirectly, climate change is andis at the previously mentioned World Heritage property
How can we respond to this new reality?

of the Ruins of Kilwa Kisiwani and the Ruins of Songo
Mnara. Put on the World Heritage list in danger inpart due to coastal erosion, the property engaged with

Adaptation and
ForwardPlanning

Save at any
cost

Record andloseinternational stakeholders and governments, utilizing
both financial and heritage resources to respond. This
response included the construction of some walls along
the coast to protect the most iconic structures, likethe Gereza or fort shown on the Figure 13. This was

Adaptation Measures at Tarxien
Temple, Malta(Photo: Megarry 2018)

Sea Defences at Skara Brae,
Scotland(Photo: Megarry 2018)

Figure 12

Loss of Dúnbeg Stone Fort to
Coastal Erosion(Photo: Irish Times 2017)

done with the support of many governments, including
Japan.
Central to this response was the understanding that21

Lecture 2

these projects were not just once-off events. Within

measures represent win-win scenarios, increasing

a conservation context, adaptation must be seen as

biodiversity and greenness while protecting heritage‘an ongoing process that is managed over time byassets.

committing to shorter term actions embedded within aAs aforementioned, some sites require a more drastic

clear long-term vision’ (Figure 14). Even quite minor

response. In these cases, while every effort should be

adaptation efforts - like this small protective wall which

made to work within an adaptive framework, protective

prevents the erosion of sub-surface archaeologicalor conservation works may be more extreme. An

deposits - must be maintained and monitored.

example here would be the efforts taken to consolidate

Adaptive measures do not always have to be intrusive
structures like walls or dykes. At Kilwa Kisiwani, thethe foundations of Edinburgh Castle and prevent rockfalls due to increased precipitation (Figure 16).

most effective measure to prevent coastal erosion was

Perhaps the most challenging sets of heritage sites

the replanting of mangrove forests along the coast

are those at high risk of imminent loss or damage. One(Figure 15). These had been commonplace until moresuch example from my own country - Ireland - wasrecent decades when over-grazing along the shoreline

Dunbeg Fort which is eroding into the sea (Figure

led to their destruction. Mangroves are amongst the17). In reality, there is little that can be done to prevent

most effective responses to coastal erosion as they

this process which climate change has significantly

absorb much of the sea’s energy and force. Sometimes

expedited. The response in this situation is familiar toreferred to as ‘soft’ or nature-based adaptation, such

all archaeologists. This is to record by record using

Adaptation and Forward Planning

Adaptation and Forward Planning

Adaptation
The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In humansystems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitateadjustment to expected climate and its effects.
(Source: IPCC Glossary 2014)

Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzanian (Image: Megarry 2019 and Heritage on the Edge 2019)

Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzanian (Image: Megarry 2019 and Heritage on the Edge 2019)

Figure 15

Figure 13

Adaptation and Forward Planning

Saving Sites at All Cost

‘Climate change adaptation is an ongoing process that is managed over time bycommitting to shorter term actions embedded within a clear long-term vision’(Adamson et al. 2018 196)

Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzanian (Image: Megarry 2019 and Heritage on the Edge 2019)

Figure 14

22

Edinburgh Castle, Scotland (Photo: Climate Change Post)

Figure 16

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

laser scanning and structure-from-motion as part of thetechniques like laser scanning and 3D structure-“Heritage on the Edge” project. This was also madefrom-motion which uses photographic imagery fromavailable to the public in augmented reality using theunmanned aerial vehicles to create larger 3D models

Google Arts and Culture mobile application.

of sites. These allow us to rapidly respond and record

Each of these steps requires decision making fromstructures and landscapes. Dunbeg, alongside many

heritage professionals which depends on an accurate

other coastal sites in Ireland and Wales, have now beenassessment of the threats to and vulnerability of therecorded by the Cherish Project before many are lost

property (Figure 19). Yet there is no agreed upon tool

forever.

to assess the climate vulnerability of heritage sites

Digital technologies offer us an opportunity to bothand developing one remains one of our key goals inconserve sites by record and set a baseline for future

ICOMOS. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

conservation efforts. The erosion of landscapes or

Change describes vulnerability as, ‘The propensity or

structures can be monitored and quantified periodically

predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability

while - with laser scanning - the sensor data can captureencompasses a variety of concepts and elements

a wider range of variables. They are also a great way of

including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack

communicating with the wider public. Figure 18 showsof capacity to cope and adapt.’. Since the third IPCC

a 3D model of the Great Mosque at Kilwa Kisiwani

Assessment cycle in 2001, the emphasis on assessingin Tanzanian and was created using a combination ofclimate impacts has been on assessing vulnerability

Lecture 2

traditional techniques like excavation, but also newer

rather than risk. While risk is the potential for adverse
New Tools and Methodologies:
Recording Sites

consequences at sites, vulnerability is the predisposition
to be adversely affected, taking other parameters
into account. Within this framework, vulnerability isunderstood as a function of a range of factors including
climate hazards, risks, impacts and resilience oradaptive capacity.
Crucially, vulnerability acknowledges the agency
and capacities of both heritage science and local
communities to respond to climate risk and reduce

Dúnbeg Fort (Image: Cherish Project and the Discovery Programme 2018)

Figure 17

impact and potential risk. For cultural sites, thisagency or adaptive capacity is a key component when

Knowing How to Respond: Assessing andUnderstanding Vulnerability

New Tools and Methodologies:
Recording Sites

The Great Mosque, Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzania (Model: Heritage on the Edge Project, 2019)

Figure 18(From Megarry, in print)

Figure 19

23

who live in and around them. Given the broad range

considering vulnerability.
Lecture 2

It is also important that we understand exactly whatof climate impacts - both direct and indirect - any

is at risk. Therefore, all vulnerability assessment mustassessment of values must be inclusive and widely

start with an understanding of key site values (Figure

encompassing, including community values, economic

20). The Operational Guidelines for the WHC stresses

and social values, natural values and spiritual or

the importance of including and acknowledging a

religious values alongside heritage values like OUV.

range of values and that these need to be protected.

Of course none of these values are tangible byUnderstanding the significance, attributes andthemselves. They are associated with physical attributes.

associated values of heritage properties is central to

For example, tourism at a site may depend on specifictheir preservation and conservation yet concepts ofvistas or popular archaeological remains while religious

significance and values are multifaceted and can havevalues may rely on intangible traditions often helda range of meanings as outlined in The Burra Charter.

in tangible spaces. These values are threatened whenThis plurality of significance and values is further

their attributes are at risk. Understanding vulnerability

emphasised in the influential Nara Convention whichmust start with an understanding of what makes a sitestresses the cultural specificity of values.

important. This requires a thorough understanding of

It may seem obvious that sites have different values;
however, often our heritage conservation processes

Values mapping often relies on traditional knowledge.

and tools tend to focus on some more than others. This

Understanding impacts relies on scientific knowledge,

is especially the case for World Heritage properties

and climate modelling in particular. It is now possible

where the Outstanding Universal Value, or OUV of

to downscale climate models from regional or national

properties, is protected at all costs to retain the coveted

scale to individual sites. While the impacts of climate

World Heritage property label. This OUV is based onchange are not going to reduce, the future is not certain.

a statement of OUV written at the time of inscription.

There are many factors to consider when assessing

In many cases, these are thoughtful and inclusive

how climatic changes will impact specific sites. These

documents which include a wide selection of site

include the future quantities of carbon dioxide andvalues. In other cases - often with older World Heritage

other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, known as

properties - the statement of OUV may focus solely

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), andon heritage values at the expense of others. In these

the temporal scale of the evaluation (Figure 21). As

cases, conservation practices and efforts risk preserving

we saw previously, adaptation can be understood as

walls and buildings at the expense of the communities‘committing to shorter term actions embedded within a

Step 1: Map Key Values

Step 2: Establish Climate Variables

Conservation of a place should identify and take into consideration all aspects of cultural andnatural significance without unwarranted emphasis on any one value at the expense ofothers.
The Burra Charter, Article 5.1

1.

Understand your site’s key values
1.
2.
3.

2.

Heritage Values (SOUV or statement of significance)
Social values (religious, spiritual or identity)
Economic values (businesses, tourism, research funding)

Map site attributes to site values
1.
2.

Climate projections are based on three
relevant variables:
1. Scale (Regional, national and local);
2. Emissions scenarios based on
Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP):
a. RCP 2.6 (most ambitious)
b. RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 (business as
usual)
c. RCP 8.5 (nightmare scenario)
3. Timeframe (2040, 2060, 2080 and
2100)

Tangible attributes (ruins, buildings, ecosystems)
Intangible attributes (traditions, customs)

Assessments must be based on accurate models and defined by specificemission scenarios and timeframes

Satra, India (Photo from Megarry 2017)

Figure 20

24

site values and their attributes.

Figure 21

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

assessing the resilience gap (Figure 23). This is the

not in terms of years, but in decades and centuries.

difference between potential impacts and adaptive

Climate models allow us to make informed decisions

capacity. Adaptive capacity or climate resilience canabout how site attributes and their associated values

be understood as, ‘the ability to anticipate, prepare

may be impacted over the coming decades and evenfor, and bounce-back from hazardous events, trends,

centuries by identifying specific climate stressors likeor disturbances related to climate’. This may include

rising sea levels or desertification.

the capacity and resources of heritage professionals, orSo the heritage sector must become more comfortable

the support available to a site from national agencies.

with different knowledge systems - both local andPotential impacts may be severe but considerable

scientific. Once we have mapped our site values

adaptive capacity can hugely reduce vulnerability.

and attributes and engaged with climate science toConversely, relatively minor impacts may haveunderstand potential climate stressors, we must thenenormous consequences at sites with little or noassess how the former is affected by the latter (Figure

adaptive capacity.

22). For example, a coastal site may have values

I would like to conclude my talk today by talking

surrounding significant subsurface human remains. If

about a recently completed project which explored thestressors include coastal erosion, these may represent a

topic of climate vulnerability assessment in an African

potential impact to the site.

context. This was called the “CVI Africa” project and

The final stage in understanding vulnerability is

Lecture 2

clear long-term vision’. So impacts must be considered

was based around applying an existing vulnerability
technique called the climate vulnerability index (CVI)

Step 3: Map Climate Variables to Attributes

Stressor

Impacts

Temperature trend

Warming, hotter than average, increased evaporation

Extreme events

Heatwaves, bleaching, desiccation

Precipitation trends

Rainfall, Rainstorms, hail, heavy dew, drizzle

Increased
precipitation

Rainstorms, cyclones, blizzards, extreme rainfall, storminess

Mean wind trend

Gales, gusts, changes in wind direction

1. Understand your site’s key values

ExampleValue: Important ArchaeologicalRemains

1. Heritage Values (SOUV or statement of significance)
Attribute: Archaeological remains
and burial areas
Flooding2. Social
Runoff,soil absorption,
flash flooding spiritual or identity)
values(religious,
Drought3. Economic
Aridity, dehydration,water shortage, soiltourism,
moisturevaluesprolonged(businesses,
research funding)
cyclones, tornadoes,
lighting,
blizzards
1. Map site Tropicalattributes
to sitevalues

Storm intensity andfrequency
Sea or lake icechangeIce extent or thickness, age of ice

Key stressors*

Flooding, post-glacial rebound, thermal expansion

Coastal flood

Coastal vulnerability, nuisance flooding

Storm surge

Storm floods, storm tides, wave height, wave setup

Coastal Erosion

Currents, waves, sediment transport, accretion, deposition

Dr Scott Heron and Dr Jon Day from James Cook
University, the CVI was originally developed fornatural World Heritage sites. It is a values-based,
science-driven and community-focused approach
which assesses both the Outstanding Universal Value

Precipitation eventsand the socio-economic vulnerability of World Heritage*based on selected RCP and timeframe

properties.

1. Tangible attributes (ruins, buildings, ecosystems)
Coastal erosion
Snowpack, snow thickness, snow compaction, age of
2. Intangible
attributes (traditions, customs)
snowpack

Snow cover change

Sea Level Rise Trendin an African Context (Figure 24). Developed by

Figure 22

Step 4: Assessing your Resilience Gap

The project’s primary aim was to increase capacities
in heritage management in Africa (Figure 25). To
achieve this, it designed and delivered a 12-week

Example: The Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) andCVI Africa Project

Climate resilience: The ability to anticipate, prepare for, and bounce-back fromhazardous events, trends, or disturbances related to climate. The ability of asystem to absorb, withstand and bounce back after an adverse event

Climate change is thefastest growing global
threat to our heritage.

Today, around the world there
are over 1,100 World Heritage
properties. Many of theseproperties are alreadyexperiencing significant
negative impacts and damage
from climate change.

The Climate
Vulnerability Index (CVI)
is a rapid assessment
tool which assesses
both site andcommunity vulnerability

Shetland, Scotland (Image: Megarry 2022)

Figure 23

Figure 2425

Lecture 2

training course in culture and climate change, including

project had many! This included in-country partners

vulnerability analysis, to a cohort of eight professionals

in both Tanzania and Nigeria, African heritage

from six countries. Given the global health situation,organizations like the African World Heritage Fund,

all of this was done online. It was always hoped thatand international professional organizations like thewe would be able to run two in-person vulnerability

International National Trusts Organization and theassessment workshops, one in Tanzania and one inUnion of Concerned Scientists (UCS). As it was funded

Nigeria. The purpose of this was twofold. Firstly, it wasby the United Kingdom Government through their Arts

an opportunity for the trainees on our course to applyand Humanities Research Council, it also included

the skills they learned during the course in person. It

three UK based organizations.

also allowed us to explore the project’s secondary aim -I will now look more closely at the results from one

to test the utility and adaptability of the CVI techniqueof the workshops which we held as part of the project.

in an African context. This latter aim was important

Figure 27 was for the Ruins of Kilwa Kisiwani andbecause - prior to the project - it had only been applied

Ruins of Songo Mnara in Tanzania which we haveto sites in Europe and Australia. Given the geopoliticalalready explored both in the context of impacts andnature of climate change, it is essential that the tools

adaptation. It is situated on the Swahili coast on two

we develop are malleable and widely applicable insmall islands and was, for nearly a millennium, adifferent countries and at different types of sites.

significant and important coastal trading emporium.

Key to a project like this is working with a wide

With Swahili, Portuguese and Omani influences, it was

range of partners (Figure 26), and the“CVI Africa”

a cosmopolitan city once described by the 14th century
Moroccan traveller Ibn Battuta as, ‘one of the mostbeautiful cities in the world’.

The CVI Africa Project

Ideally, vulnerability workshops should be held as
close to the site as possible to allow for maximum

The CVI Africa Project provided foundational
training to a cohort of six African heritage
professionals in climate change vulnerability
assessments of cultural heritage sites using both
remote learning techniques and hands-on
workshops at two World Heritage properties.

stakeholder support. Given the global health situation,
it was necessary to have a hybrid event which washeld over two days in Dar es Salaam this time last year
(Figure 28). This ensured strong internet for remoteengagement, while stakeholders traveled from the site
and the local community.
Impacts at the site have already been discussed andFigure 25

Ruins of Kilwa Kisiwani and Ruins of Songo Mnara
World Heritage property

CVI Africa Project Partners
Project Partners

Figure 26

26

Project Funders

Figure 27

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

climate stressors based on the experience of the local

key structures visible on the Figure 29, alongside thecommunity and heritage professionals. Interestingly,

adaptive measures already discussed.

this identified increased precipitation and not coastal

Prior to the workshops, climate scientists from theerosion as the primary climate stressor, potentially

University of Dar es Salaam were commissioned to

impacting five out of seven key values. Two further

write a report based on downscaled climate predictions

stressors - sea level rise and coastal erosion were also

(Figure 30). This included key stressors over threeidentified, potentially impacting three key values each.

representative concentration pathways or RCPs.

The above table on the Figure 31 shows the assessed

Heritage professionals from the site including theimpact of each of these three stressors on the heritagesite manager set a timeframe of 30 years to assessvalues of the site. These range between moderate andvulnerability, which aligned with their own siteextreme which means that, without adaptive measures,

management plan, and based their assessment on RCP

the site is highly vulnerable to climate change over the

8.5, seen by most as the worst possible emissions

next 30 years. While local skills and knowledge are

scenario.

quite high the site lacks resources to fully deal with

The CVI process was designed for World Heritage

these impacts. Once these are taken into account, theproperties and so puts a priority on assessing impacts

vulnerability of the site’s outstanding universal value isto their outstanding universal value. In this case,gauged to range between moderate and high.

key values were extracted from the statement of

The CVI also explored the socio-economic values

outstanding universal value and mapped to the primaryof the site (Figure 32). These were compiled by a

Stakeholder Workshop

Lecture 2

include rising sea levels leading to coastal erosion of

Heritage Values and Stressors(In-person and Online)

Figure 28
Climate Impacts: Coastal Erosion and Adaptation
MeasuresImages from Kilwa Kisiwani WH Property including: A) Eroding shoreline showing archaeological deposits, B) Protective wall above the beach
below the Malindi Mosque, C) Protective wall in from of the Gereza Fort, and D) Damage to the Gereza Fort from coastal erosion (foreground)and mangrove forests protecting the structure (background)Figure 29

Figure 30
Outstanding Universal Value Vulnerability

Kilwa Kisiwani, Tanzania (Image: Megarry 2019)

Figure 31

27

wide range of local stakeholders which included thosethe periodic recording mechanisms of at risk sites.

Lecture 2

working at the site in cultural and natural conservation,

The reports from this workshop are available

tourist guides, fishermen, townsfolk and craftspeople.

to download from the ICOMOS Open Archive in

They identified a range of further values of importanceEnglish and Swahili alongside our report from theto the community, aside from the heritage values

second workshop which we held at the Sukur Cultural

identified above. These included the societal andLandscape in Nigeria in September 2021. I havecommunity importance of fishing around the site andalso put references to two other reports which I haveits wrecks, the pristine natural reef ecosystems andmentioned in my talk today which are also available

their value to natural heritage, the economic importanceto download. Figure 34 are the Future of our Pasts

of tourism to the community, many of whom act asreport which was co-authored by the ICOMOS

guides, and the centuries-old tradition of boat building

Working Group including the esteemed Professor

which is still practiced on the island of Songo Mnara.

KONO Toshiyuki who also wrote its foreword as ourA similar process was then undertaken, assessing

then President, and the recent Global Research Action

the impact of key stressors on these values and theAgenda report from the International Co-Sponsored

adaptive capacity of the community to respond to

Meeting on Culture Heritage and Climate Change.

these impacts (Figure 33). As the impact of climate

I would like to conclude by thanking the many people

stressors on these activities was shown to be minimal

who have been involved in the initiatives and projects

within the chosen parameters for the exercise, and theI have discussed today (Figure 35). There are too

adaptive capacity moderate in some cases, the overallvulnerability of socio-economic factors was deemed
to be low. These results showed that the heritage

Community Response and Adaptive Capacity

values of the site were more vulnerable than the socioeconomic values, and identified which attributes andvalues required specific adaptive measures over the
next 30 years. It is worth noting that the CVI exercise
only assessed vulnerability over a relatively shortperiod based on a single representative concentration

LEFT: Conservation efforts at the site (Photos: Mercy Mbogelah 2022),
ABOVE: CVI Consult rapid assessment of Community Vulnerability to loss ofWorld Heritage values, related to the assessed OUV Vulnerability for ca.
2040 (Table 4.2). Assessments of economic, social, and cultural (ESC)
dependency and adaptive capacity contribute to derived outcomes of ESC
potential impact and Community Vulnerability. Colours refer to the elementsof the CVI framework

pathway. Different parameters would likely yield aslightly different result. This raises the important issueof replicability and including techniques like CVI into

Community and Socioeconomic Values
A

B

C

D

Socioeconomic Values Associated with the Property including: A) Fishing (Photo: Kilwa Dreams), B) Biological Diversity (Photo: UNESCO), C) KIlwa
Tourism Advert (Image: TAWA), and D) Boat Building (Photo: wikicommons)Figure 32

28

Figure 33

Climate Heritage Resources

Available from the ICOMOS Archive

Figure 34

The Futures of our Past: Cultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency

many to mention here, but I would like to especially
Lecture 2

acknowledge the many sites and communities who
have welcomed and worked with us in these initiatives
including our Tanzanian colleagues from the TanzanianWildlife Authority and all involved in the “CVI Africa”
project.

Thanks, and Acknowledgements• The ICOMOS Climate Action Working Group: Andrew Potts• Heritage on the Edge Project: Google Arts and Culture, CyArk andpartners from Bangladesh, Peru, Rapa Nui, Scotland and Tanzania.
• The CVI Africa Project: The Arts and Humanities Research Council and the
UK Department for Culture Media and Sport. Partners including the
University of Highlands and Islands, Historic Environment Scotland, theAfrican World Heritage Fund, ICMOMS Nigeria, NCMM Nigeria, TAWA, Dr
Scott Heron and Dr Jon Day, James Cook University.
• The International Co-Sponsored Meeting on Culture, Heritage andClimate Change: The IPCC, UNESCO, Dr Hana Morel and Sarah Forgesson.
• The Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage

The Hill of Tara, Ireland (Photo: Discover Boyne Valley 2021)

Figure 3529

Lecture 3

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’s Happening Now?

Lecture 3

Climate Change andTraditional Knowledge:

Case Studies from Oceania
ISHIMURA Tomo
(Head, Audio-Visual Documentation Section, Department of Intangible Cultural Heritage,
Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties)

Dr. Ishimura graduated from the doctoral program at the Graduate School of Letters,
Kyoto University in 2004. He is a specialist of archeology and cultural heritage studies.
After working at the Research Fellowship for Young Scientists at the Japan Society for
the Promotion of Science, and as a researcher at the Nara National Research Institutefor Cultural Properties, he has been involved in research on intangible cultural heritageat the Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties since 2015. He also
contributed to the inscription of the Nan Madol ruins in the Federated States ofMicronesia on the World Heritage list (2016). His publications include Revived Ancient
Ports: Restoring Ancient Landforms (Yoshikawa Kobunkan, 2017).

30

My name is ISHIMURA Tomo. Today, I will givethe affected areas, so it became impossible to holda talk with the title “Climate change and traditional

traditional festivals that had been held up until thatknowledge.” Before that, let me briefly introduce

point. However, there were also positive cases; formyself.

example, some people who left their hometown to

I was originally an archaeologist, like Dr. Megarry.

take refuge performed traditional entertainment using

In 2015, I was transferred to the Audio-Visual

tools at evacuation sites, thereby strengthening theDocumentation Section of the Department of Intangible

ties among people. In this respect, a certain amount ofCultural Heritage in the Tokyo National Researchresearch on intangible cultural heritage and disasters

Institute for Cultural Properties. There, I have been

has been accumulated. Therefore, I think that how

engaged in the work of recording intangible cultural

climate change and resulting disasters affect intangible

heritage using video. For years, I have also conducted

cultural heritage is also an important issue. The

research on disaster management and prevention for

ICOMOS Climate Action Working Group, which

intangible cultural heritage.

was introduced by Dr. Megarry earlier, was launched

The research was started in part because of theseveral years ago, and I have also been participating

Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. A large numberin this working group as a contact person of ICOMOS

of tangible and intangible cultural heritage wereJapan.

damaged in the earthquake, and in particular, damage

The contents of today’s speech are as follows. First,

to intangible cultural heritage has not received much

I will speak about the relationship between climate

attention so far in the context of disasters in Japan.

change and cultural heritage. Next, I will introduce

Communities were destroyed by the tsunami that

two examples in Oceania: first Kiribati and second Fiji.

followed the earthquake, and people individually left

After that, I want to consider how to protect traditional

Climate Change and Traditional Knowledge: Case Studies from Oceania

knowledge from the impact of climate change.
climate change and cultural heritage. As Dr. Megarrythe importance of integrating these three types ofknowledge was highlighted.

mentioned, the International Co-sponsored Meeting

Then, what are indigenous knowledge and local

on Culture, Heritage and Climate Change was held

knowledge? I think that they correspond to traditionalon December 2021 under the joint sponsorship ofknowledge in intangible cultural heritage.

UNESCO, ICOMOS, and the IPCC. In this meeting,

UNESCO’s Convention for the Safeguarding of

three themes were discussed: 1) knowledge systems

Intangible Cultural Heritage classifies intangible

and climate change: systemic connections of culture,

cultural heritage into five categories: 1) oral traditions

heritage and climate change; 2) impacts and climate

and expressions, including language as a vehicle ofchange: loss, damage and adaption for culture andthe intangible cultural heritage; 2) performing arts;

heritage; and 3) heritage solutions and climate change:3) social practices, rituals and festive events; 4)role of culture and heritage in transformative change

knowledge and practices concerning nature and theand alternative sustainable futures.

universe; and 5) traditional craftsmanship. Of these,

This meeting was on a large scale and was held for

item 4) corresponds to traditional knowledge.

five days. It comprised a panel discussion for each

We think that traditional knowledge as intangibleof the three themes, three workshops with experts,

cultural heritage is deeply connected to the identityand a poster session. About 100 people participated,of a community and is an important thing that should

including experts and representatives of local residents.

be inherited to the next generation. What’s more, anHowever, it is very difficult for 100 people to talk at the

expectation that traditional knowledge includes wisdomsame time at a workshop. In addition, all sessions wereto adapt to and mitigate climate change was expressed

conducted online, which means that the participants’in last year’s international workshop.

locations and time zones varied. Therefore, eachThis may have been because of the influence ofworkshop was conducted three times a day to suit thosethe concept of “wise use” in the Ramsar Convention.

in different time zones. In this case, each workshop had

The concept of wise use is a way of thinking that it

about 30 participants, which was still too many for allis necessary to not only protect natural environments

the members to talk together. So, it was further divided

but also make effective use of them. Now, this way of

into sub-groups comprising 5 to 10 people. I reallythinking seems to be very common among us, although

appreciate the efforts of Dr. Megarry, who organized

the Ramsar Convention was established in the 1980s.

as an executive office this large-scale meeting that

The concept of wise use suggests that the traditional

discussed various complicated issues. From Japan, I

use of resources by people in local communities canand Dr. IWABUCHI Akifumi at Tokyo University ofplay an important role in preserving the environment.

Marine Science and Technology participated in thismeeting. Probably, he is in this hall today.

Lecture 3

We will first look at the relationship betweenchange had been biased towards scientific knowledge,

In addition, it is often pointed out that traditional
knowledge can possibly play a key role in achieving

Of the three themes, the first one—Knowledge

the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), for which

systems and climate change: systemic connections ofvarious efforts have been made internationally in recent

culture, heritage and climate change—is most relevant

years. In reality, however, there are many cases in

to today’s speech. The session on knowledge systems

which traditional knowledge itself is at stake because

showed that there are three knowledge systems:of the impact of climate change.

not only scientific knowledge but also indigenous

Next, I discuss two examples in Oceania to see aknowledge and local knowledge. In consideration

situation in which traditional knowledge is endangeredof the lesson that previous discussions on climate

by the impact of climate change and then point out the31

of Kiribati.

need to protect it.
Lecture 3

The first is the case of Kiribati, which is an island

It does not rain very much on an atoll island. In

nation located in the central Pacific. Kiribati mostly

general, as wet winds hit a mountain, clouds arecomprises atolls. This is an environment in which

formed, from which rain falls. However, there is nopeople live on soil that accumulated on coral reefs.

mountain on an atoll island, so clouds are less likely to

There is an inland sea called a lagoon at the center ofform. On islands with a mountain, a river is formed or

the island, and people live on a narrow strip of land

forests grow on the mountain and store water. However,that surrounds it. The island is formed on soil thatin the case of an atoll island like Kiribati, if rain falls,

accumulated on raised coral reefs and is at a very low

there are no forests or rivers to store it, so people havealtitude, which is only about three meters even at the

lived using this lenticular layer. In Figure 2, we canhighest point. There is concern about sea level risesee stems of giant swamp taro; each is given a name bydue to recent climate change and the risk of the islanda family who planted it and is grown with great care.

itself being submerged. Atoll island nations including

Giant swamp taro is not only important as food but also

Kiribati are regarded as the places most affected byplays a social and cultural role; for example, it is served

climate change globally.

as a feast when a gathering is held in a village.

Figure 1 shows the situation of Tarawa Island, where

In recent years, however, the salinity of groundwater

the capital of Kiribati is located. The water level is nearused in pit irrigation has been increasing. This has

houses. The plants growing there are mangroves. The

worsened the growth of giant swamp taro, and thefact that mangroves are already growing indicates thattraditional farming practice has become endangered.

this area is submerged in seawater. Beyond this area

For this, two possible causes are pointed out: 1)

are three palm trees, of which the middle one is alreadyseawater came to run into the lenticular layer because

withered. This is probably because it was affected byof sea level rise; and 2) sea water flowed into croplandseawater.

because of a cyclone storm surge.

In Kiribati, a traditional farming practice called pit

Once salt gets into a pit, it cannot be easily removed,

irrigation has been used (Figure 2). An atoll has anand productivity may therefore be reduced. In

aquifer called a lenticular layer under the ground. In

Kiribati, it is feared that sea level rise and the frequent

pit irrigation, potatoes are grown with the use of fresh

occurrence of cyclones due to climate change may leadwater welling up from a lenticular layer through ato the decline of traditional farming practices using pit

hole dug in the ground. These potatoes are a variety ofirrigation and traditional knowledge about food culture.

potato called giant swamp taro, which is a staple foodOf course, the submergence of land is the greatest

Submersed village on Tarawa, Kiribati

Figure 1

32

Pit irrigation system for Giant swamp taro (Cyrtosperma spp.)

Figure 2

Climate Change and Traditional Knowledge: Case Studies from Oceania

exposed to seawater stirred up by the cyclone, but

to decline of traditional knowledge are also issues that

it is not dead. Figure 4 is a church destroyed bycannot be ignored.

the cyclone. The roof was completely blown off. In

Next, we will look at the case of Fiji.

Fiji, Christianity was introduced with the arrival ofFiji is also an island nation located in the central

Europeans, and since then, it has had a great influence

Pacific and is not so far from Kiribati. However, unlikeon the society and culture of Fiji. This church is

Kiribati, the islands of Fiji are made up of coral atolls

a symbolic building of Namarai but was severely

and volcanic islands. Fiji was severely damaged bydamaged. We visited the village to conduct our survey

Cyclone Winston in February 2016. In response, theas people were working on the reconstruction of theInternational Research Center for Intangible Culturalvillage (Figure 5).

Heritage in the Asia-Pacific Region (IRCI) conducted a

The survey revealed that one of the reasons that thefield survey on intangible cultural heritage and disasterdamage was so severe was that Cyclone Winston hadrisk management in September 2017 in cooperation

come from a direction opposite to that of a normal

with the Fiji Museum and the Ministry of iTaukei (major

cyclone.

indigenous people of the Fiji Islands) Affairs of the Fiji

The buildings of the village were spread with thegovernment. An organization called the International

western hilly area behind them. Cyclones usually

Research Center for Intangible Cultural Heritage in thecome from the west; therefore, the hilly area served as

Asia-Pacific Region (IRCI) is a UNESCO Category 2

a windbreak. However, Winston came from the east,

Lecture 3

concern in Kiribati, but social and cultural changes due

Center in the field of intangible cultural heritage and islocated in Osaka. It belongs to the National Institutes
for Cultural Heritage, as does the Tokyo National
Research Institute for Cultural Properties to which I
belong, so I also participated in the survey after thedisaster as a collaborative researcher of IRCI.
Naocobau and Namarai, villages in the eastern partof Viti Levu Island, were the survey subjects, and I
conducted a hearing with the inhabitants.
Figure 3 shows the appearance of a village called
Namarai. The white houses are temporary dwellings.

Destroyed church building at Naocobau village, the eastern Viti Levu

The tree at the front is bare of leaves because it was

Figure 4

Namarai village, the eastern Viti Levu, after the TC Winston

Post-disaster reconstruction at Namarai

Figure 3

Figure 533

Lecture 3

so the storm hit the village straight on. The change

and children and other relatives live together in one

in the pattern of cyclone movement may have beenhouse. As shown in Figure 8, only the main house has

due to climate change. The traditional arrangement ofa large space with no other rooms; all family members

settlements may have been intended to reduce damage

eat together in this space and thereby strengthen theirby a cyclone, but because the pattern of movement wasfamily ties.

different this time, severe damage resulted instead.

However, temporary houses like the ones we just saw

It has also been found that traditional knowledge(Figure 6) cannot accommodate such large families.

about disasters does not work effectively in the

Therefore, big families must be separated into nuclear

present day. Traditional knowledge also includes thatfamilies, and the family ties may weaken. Figure 7of damage prevention from cyclones. For example, ashows a different village to the damaged village we sawchange in the flying pattern of seabirds and a change

earlier; here a traditional large main house has beenin the growth pattern of plants such as bananas andreconstructed, which requires a lot of time and money.

breadfruit have been regarded as a sign of a cyclone.

The main house is thatched with plant material, andTraditional knowledge also includes knowledge such as

the techniques to procure this plant material and create

for using wild plants as emergency food and processing

the roof with it are now rare. Therefore, many people

potatoes, which are usually not stored for long periods,
so that they can be stored.
It has also been found that a change in traditionalcustoms may occur in the post-disaster recovery
process. After the disaster, an overseas support group
immediately supplied prefabricated temporary houses.
Figure 6 shows these temporary houses. However,
the temporary houses were small ones designed for anuclear family. They are too small to cater to families
of more than four or five people.
The traditional family life of Fiji is such that a big
family live together in a large main house (Figure 7).

A traditional house building (bure)
on Gau Figure
Island,7Fiji

There is a large main house, in which a big family live
together. In Fiji, this traditional family style is often
called an “extended family” and grandparents, parents,

A traditional house building (bure)
on Gau Island, Fiji

Temporary housings at Naocobau

Figure 6

34

Figure 8

Climate Change and Traditional Knowledge: Case Studies from Oceania

What’s more, traditional knowledge as I mentioned

our survey, several people actually responded that they

today is at stake in the first place. There are twowould continue to live in a temporary house instead

reasons for this: globalization and modernization. Asof constructing a new house. We can see that changes

I mentioned in the case of Fiji, traditional knowledge

in family structure after the disaster may change Fiji’s

is considered superstitious, and young people are

traditional family system.

becoming less interested in it. Even though traditional

Finally, I want to consider how we can protect

knowledge is already disappearing, the speed of thistraditional knowledge from the impact of climate

may increase due to the impact of climate change.

change. When we face the challenge of protecting

However, as I pointed out in the beginning, traditional

cultural heritage from climate change, the necessary

knowledge can also be said to be an important thingaction differs a little between tangible and intangiblethat is deeply connected to local people’s identity. If a

cultural properties. For a tangible cultural property,

disaster happens, it can also be the basis of ties between

it can be said that damage is relatively easy to see;people in the process of recovery.

for example, physical damage caused by a disaster.

To protect traditional knowledge, it is necessary to

As such, preventive measures against disasters canmake its existence visible. Although I am an expert on

be taken, and the action to take is relatively clear.

Oceania, my knowledge is not so great, and there is no

However, in the case of intangible cultural properties

doubt that the local people living there have much more

including traditional knowledge, the reality of damage

traditional knowledge than I do. The process to makeis hard to see. Damage does not appear immediately

traditional knowledge visible so that we can protect

after the occurrence of a disaster; rather, such a change

it cannot be accomplished by us or outside experts

can occur during the disaster recovery process. As

alone. How we involve local people, how we make itsuch, it is very difficult to prevent disaster damage tovisible, and how we gain local people’s cooperation areintangible cultural heritage, and chances to do so are

essential for protecting traditional knowledge.

few.

Lecture 3

may choose to continue to live in a temporary house. In

Thank you very much for your attention.

35

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What’s Happening Now?

Panel Discussion

Panel Discussion

Facilitator：SONODA Naoko（Professor, National Museum of Ethnology ）Panelist：TATEISHI Toru

（Director, Center for Conservation Science, Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural
Properties / Deputy Director, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center）

NAKATSUKA Takeshi / William Megarry / ISHIMURA Tomo

SONODA Naoko (Professor, National Museum of Ethnology)
Professor at the National Museum of Ethnology. After working at the Laboratoire deRecherche des Musées de France, the Service de Restauration des Peintures des Musées
Nationaux (France), and the National Museum of Japanese History (Japan), she joined the
National Museum of Ethnology. Her research focuses on conservation science, especiallypreventive conservation, in order to balance the conservation and utilization of a wide variety
of materials, including ethnographic materials, books, and audio-visual materials. Her researchinterests include Integrated Pest Management, storage reorganization, development ofanalytical systems for pest trap investigation and temperature and humidity monitoring, andtechnological development of deacidification and strengthening methods for acidic paper.
She has also been involved for many years in the museology course offered by the National
Museum of Ethnology in cooperation with JICA for museums in developing countries. Edited
books include Conservation of Cultural Heritage in a Changing World (SES102, 2019), New
Horizons for Asian Museums and Museology (Springer Singapore, 2016).

TATEISHI Toru
(Director, Center for Conservation Science, Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural
Properties / Deputy Director, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center)
Dr. Tateishi is currently the director of the Center for Conservation Science at the Tokyo
National Research Institute for Cultural Properties. He is also the deputy director of
the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center, Japan. After graduating fromthe Cultural Property Science Course of the Tokyo Gakugei University he worked as an
assistant at the Conservation Science Department at Tokyo University of the Arts, theAgency for Cultural Affairs as the Senior Specialist for Cultural Properties Investigator, andthe vice director of the Department of Culture, Education and Life Creation (in chargeof Cultural Resources Division), the Nara Prefectural Government, before assuming his
current position in 2021. He is engaged in the research and practice of cultural property
conservation science and cultural property disaster prevention. He is the co-author ofMaterial Preservation Theory for Humanities Museum (Yuzankaku. Inc, 2012) and theManual on Rescue Operations for Movable Cultural Property (Kubapro, 2012).

Sonoda36

Hello everyone. I am Naoko Sonoda fromJapan, he reproduced yearly changes in the amount of

the National Museum of Ethnology. Pleased to meet

precipitation in the summer over thousands of years,

you. We will now start a panel discussion.

from around the Jomon period until now, and showedFirst, let me summarize this morning’s speeches.

that climate change has occurred in cycles in Japan.

First, Dr. Nakatsuka from Nagoya University gave

Then, he pointed out that human society is especiallya speech entitled “Potential of cultural heritage as

vulnerable to climate changes in decades-long cycles

the memory of past climate adaptation inferred fromand that actually, the climate change of global warming

paleoclimatology.” This showed that climate change

we are now facing has occurred on a time scale ofis not a problem specific to the present. From theseveral decades. This indicates that if memories ofoxygen isotope ratio of annual rings of trees in central

adjustment and adaptation to climate change can beissued a joint declaration on environmental guidelines

hints for how to overcome climate change.

for museums and art galleries. These organizations are

The next speech was “The Futures of our Past:

the International Institute for Conservation of HistoricCultural Heritage and the Climate Emergency” by Dr.

and Artistic Works (IIC) and the ICOM Committee for

Megarry from Queen’s University. On the basis ofConservation (ICOM-CC), an international committee

four concrete examples in the “Heritage on the Edge”

of the International Council of Museums (ICOM). The

project, he showed us that cultural heritage artifacts

joint declaration issued by these two organizations

are significantly affected by climate change. Then, he

recommends reducing energy consumption andexplained that when evaluating the impact of a climate

introducing alternative energy. It also says that carbon

event, we can use a tool to evaluate vulnerability to aemissions should be reduced to mitigate climate change

climate event rather than evaluating the risk. This tooland that for material management, easy-to-maintainis called the CVI project. It was developed by experts

and energy-efficient solutions should be consideredin cultural heritage and climate scientists and is based

ahead of air conditioning. This joint declaration wason scientific evaluation, and it employs an approachissued in 2014, but such discussions had already begun

that focuses on communities. The CVI project wasinternationally as early as 2008.

also implemented in Africa, where it was also intended

Seen in this light, it can be said that climate change

for human resources development. Dr. Megarry also

affects all cultural heritage artifacts such as tangible

explained that it was based on a view that it should

and intangible cultural properties, immovable and fixed

actually be evaluated by local people.

cultural heritage properties such as buildings and relics,

The third speech was by Dr. Ishimura of the Tokyoand movable cultural properties like collections of

National Research Institute for Cultural Properties.

museums and art galleries. Being affected by climate

While Dr. Megarry focused on cultural and naturalchange means that these are subject to damage. Of

heritage, which are tangible and physical, Dr. Ishimuracourse, not all damage that cultural heritage artifacts

focused on the importance of intangible cultural

suffer is related to climate change, but it is a fact thatheritage, or formless cultural heritage, which is easy

climate change increases the scale of natural disasters

to forget and hard to realize as it cannot easily be seen.

and thereby causes greater damage.

In this speech, he spoke about traditional knowledge

What matters here is the perspective of protection

in intangible cultural heritage. After noting that thisagainst disasters. In short, reduce damage as much as

traditional knowledge potentially includes clues topossible. If damage is caused, minimize the damage. If

solve problems related to climate change, he pointed

very great damage occurs, provide relief and support.

out that traditional knowledge itself must be changed

This is protection against disasters. On October 1, 2020,

because the climate change that is happening now in

the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center

many regions differs from previous patterns.

was established in the National Institutes for CulturalThree presentations were given, focusing on relics,

Heritage. Its missions can be organized into the threebuildings, and natural heritage in connection withpoints I just mentioned. I want Dr. Tateishi to speak

climate change. Looking back, it seems that climate

from the perspective of protection against disasters. Hechange also affects other cultural heritage artifacts

is Deputy Director of the Cultural Heritage Disasterand assets. For example, climate change has a great

Risk Management Center and Director of the Center

influence on cultural properties such as museum or art

for Conservation Science of the Tokyo National

gallery collections. One point I want to mention in thisResearch Institute for Cultural Properties. Dr. Tateishi,

regard is that in 2014, two international organizations

I appreciate your help.

Panel Discussion

found in cultural heritage artifacts, they can give usof experts for the preservation of cultural properties
37

Panel Discussion

Tateishi Thank you for the introduction; I am Tateishi

Typhoon No. 19 in 2019 caused devastating damage toof the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management

the Kawasaki City Museum. I think this is fresh in theCenter (Figure 1). It’s nice to meet you all. Old

minds of Japanese people.

Japanese words that have scary connotations include

Responses to the Great East Japan Earthquake,the words “Jishin,” “Kaminari,” “Kaji,” and “Oyaji”

especially related to cultural properties damaged by(earthquake, thunder, fire, and father, respectively).

the tsunami and experiences of this have much in

Incidentally, I try to be a not-so-scary and kind father!

common with responses to torrential rain and other

When considering protection against disasters in

disasters resulting from climate change. I think thatJapan, earthquakes, fires, and lightning are mainly

seeking a point of contact between both allows Japan’s

discussed, and the themes like today’s have notexperience to contribute internationally as well as

received much attention. The year 2023 will mark thedomestically.

100th anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquake, theDr. Megarry spoke about the Nara Document in his

first great disaster in modern Japan. Japan’s disasterspeech. The Nara Document is an excellent document

risk management of cultural properties was firstthat was published to the world by Japan. While being

implemented on a full scale after the Great Hanshin-fully aware of the diversity of each region, which is

Awaji Earthquake in 1995. After that, efforts were

one of its aims, I want to send out an international

accelerated because of the Great East Japan Earthquake

message for protection against disasters. With thisin 2011 and have been ever since.

as an assumption, let me talk about Japan’s efforts inI think that Japan has become one of the advanced

response to the Great East Japan Earthquake.

countries in protecting cultural properties against

A large tsunami occurred soon after the earthquake

disasters through its experiences of various disasters(Figure 2). The accident at the Fukushima nuclear

including the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and thepower plant is also known internationally (Figure 3).

Great East Japan Earthquake. However, climate change,

Eastern Japan, especially its Pacific coastline, suffered

which is today’s theme, is not often recognized andheavy damage. There was also severe damage resulting

discussed in the cultural property field in Japan, evenfrom the nuclear accident (Figure 4). In the process,if the discussion is not limited to protection against

cultural properties were also damaged.
The building shown in Figure 5 is the Ishinomaki

disasters.
In reality, cultural properties in Japan have frequently

Culture Center, a museum in Ishinomaki City inbeen damaged in recent years by disasters related toMiyagi Prefecture. It is one of the largest museums inclimate change as explained earlier. Most recently,

the disaster-stricken area and was completely destroyed
KYODO NEWS 2011

Climate Change and cultural heritage:
What’s happening now?

Panel discussion: Topic offer

From the Experience of
the Great East Japan Earthquake
2011
TATEISHI, Toru

Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center, Japan

Figure 1

38

Figure 2

The picture shows wet documents and paper materials

rescue activity at the museum. A curator died and the(Figure 9). A radiation check was first performed

building was seriously damaged but many materials

before the start of the recovery activity in Fukushima.

were saved. Figure 7 also shows part of the activity.

The Great East Japan Earthquake (the 2011 off

Figure 8 shows a cultural property storage room

the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake) occurred inin a radiation-exposed area in Fukushima Prefecture.

March. As such, soon after the earthquake, the JuneKYODO NEWS

Panel Discussion

by the tsunami. Figure 6 shows the cultural property

2011

Figure 3

Figure 6

Figure 4

Figure 7

Figure 5

Figure 839Panel Discussion

rains and the summer season came. As time passed,of the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management

damage caused by organisms such as fungi and insectsCenter is located. Nara is an ancient capital of Japan.

occurred. Wet materials must be rescued as quickly

Usually, this equipment is used to store and treat

as possible through freezing or other treatments, butwooden cultural properties, such as a large wellthere were no facilities to do so in the disaster-stricken

unearthed from the ancient remains. This equipment isarea. Large freezers that were operating in the disaster-

capable of treating two tons of materials at a time.

stricken area were all used to store food for affected

Figure 13 shows work at the Tohoku University

people.
We used a large freezer in Nara in western Japan,
which was far from the disaster-stricken area (Figure

冷蔵庫の中10). Materials were sometimes frozen during thetransportation from the disaster-stricken area to Nara
(Figure 11). The materials were temporarily stored
in Nara. Figure 12 shows a vacuum freeze dryer
belonging to the Nara National Research Institute forCultural Properties, in which the current headquarters

Figure 11

真空凍結乾燥器（＠奈文研）

Figure 9

Figure 12

冷蔵庫の確保（奈良）Figure 10

40

Figure 13

freeze-drying.

which is near the disaster-stricken area. Various

All of these works were conducted around April

networks worked effectively in not only westernand May 2011. After that, we experienced various

Japan but also elsewhere. In this picture too, there isprocesses, but some work remains unfinished.

a vacuum freeze dryer at the back. Shown is a scene

Although I cannot say for sure that the first stage has

where we had students treat cultural properties—

been completed, the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk

wet paper—for preservation partly for their hands-on

Management Center was established in the National

training. Figure 14 shows prefectural and municipal

Institutes for Cultural Heritage in October 2020, almost

officials in charge of cultural properties who were

ten years after the earthquake and already two years

actually engaged in work using a vacuum freeze dryerago.

in western Japan. Experts in various areas in western

I think that the Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk

Japan gathered at the Nara National Research InstituteManagement Center should function properly as afor Cultural Properties to consider what treatment was

promoter of disaster risk management of cultural

appropriate. Figure 15 shows the scene at the Tokyo

heritage in Japan and as a hub of networks in

National Research Institute for Cultural Properties,

cooperation with the Agency for Cultural Affairs,

where people shared information and discussed thefacilities of the National Institutes for Cultural

treatment of cultural properties of wet paper using theHeritage, and experts and specialized agencies aroundsquelch-packing technique, which differs from vacuum

the country.

Panel Discussionof Art & Design, a university in Yamagata Prefecture,

Today’s theme of climate change does not receive

保存処理法の検討（＠奈文研）

much attention in Japan, as I said before. While being
fully aware of this, I want to consider the work fromnow on.
Broadly speaking, the Cultural Heritage Disaster
Risk Management Center has three missions (Figure16), which Dr. Sonoda also mentioned earlier: first,
prevent damage; then, minimize the scale of damage
when a disaster actually happens; and take appropriate
action if a disaster actually happens. Experience also
leads to the next prevention, so I want to create a

Figure 14

情報共有研究会 （５月１０日 ＠東文研）

proper cycle. After listening to this morning’s speeches,

Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk
Management Center, Japanestablished in October 2020 at the hedquartersof the National Institutes for Cultural Heritage,
Japan.

Mission
1. Prevent damage
2. Minimize damage
3. Provide relief and support for damage
Figure 15

Figure 1641

Panel Discussion

I have become keenly aware that not only earthquakes,

know, rice which grows in summer. The time whenthunder, and fires but also climate change should berice grows correlates with the time when the climate is

positioned at the center of discussion. As an assumption

recorded in annual rings of trees, and consequently I

for the panel discussion that follows, I offered topics.

was able to obtain very clean data to interpret history.

My speech is over. Thank you.

However, the relationship between climate change dataand crops in Europe and America is not as simple as in

Sonoda Thank you so much, Dr. Tateishi. Well, let’s

Japan, so as we look at the data of Europe and America,

move on to the panel discussion. First, if there are any

we cannot find such a simple relationship. In Europe

questions from the presenters to other presenters, I

and America, however, research on the relationshipwould like to hear them. If there are any questions for

between climate change and history is very active,

the first presenter, Dr. Nakatsuka, please ask him.

and many important discussions have been conductedbecause the disciplines of dendrochronology andTateishi

I listened to Dr. Nakatsuka’s speech in thedendroclimatology were originally developed in Europe

morning with great interest. Thank you very much. For

and America. There seems to be no such research thatyears, I have paid attention to Dr. Nakatsuka’s researchinterprets the entire history over more than 2000 years

including a large joint research project at the Researchusing a single idea as I did, and I will work hard on

Institute for Humanity and Nature, and I think that thereinternational dissemination of our research results so

are probably findings that Japan can boast to the world.

that I will be able to communicate with researchers

I wonder how they are disseminated internationally,in Europe and America, where advanced researchwhat the international research situation is like, andincluding the possibility of such research is conducted.

whether there may be similar research overseas as well.
I would like to ask something like these.

SonodaAs just explained, combining various

historical events to analyze scientific data is a very new
Nakatsuka

Regarding international dissemination

approach and perspective. An approach to combineof my research related to paleoclimatology inwhat has been accumulated in different fields to findnatural science, I disseminate research results to an

new discoveries will work for not only Japan but alsointernational database and at the same time publish

the world and is not limited to the relationship with ricethem in their entirety in an important Europeanand crops, so it was a very interesting presentation.

international journal. Regarding discussions of

we have also received a similar question from ahistory and climate, I have so far disseminated them

participant for Dr. Nakatsuka: “Thank you for yourin academic conferences on Japanese history andvaluable speech from the perspective of the integrationarchaeology. A difficult point is that Japanese andof humanities and sciences. I was able to learn new

Chinese history is not familiar to scientific referees

approaches in considering climate change and culturalof international journals, especially European andheritage. I would like to hear from Dr. Nakatsuka

American ones, and as such, it is sometimes difficulton the future possibility of international cooperation

for them to understand the core of an issue. Honestly,

regarding cultural heritage and climate change. Would

because of my lack of ability to explain Japanese andyou please tell me keywords as possible actions?” What

Chinese history at once in a short paper, my thesis was

do you think about this?

not accepted easily.
Meanwhile, this research discusses history on the

42

Nakatsuka

In the sense of reproducing climate

basis of changes in summer climate reproduced fromchanges using oxygen isotopes, I have alreadyannual rings, and the major grain in Japan is, as you

reproduced data with a direct relationship with most

mostly did not listen to their warnings. Therefore,

obtaining documents to determine ages, reproducing

efforts to properly pass on lessons from the past fromclimate changes, and making interpretations in

the present to the future should be repeated in various

cooperation with people who are engaged in thecontexts such as climate change, protection againstpreservation of cultural properties in other countries,

disasters, and preservation of cultural properties.

Panel Discussion

countries in Asia at the laboratory level. This includes

so I am conducting international cooperation in thatsense as a matter of course. As for the latter question,

Ishimura

the issue of how to use cultural heritage under climate

in connection with what Dr. Nakatsuka said. Thechange is very essential, so let me express my views at

Kawasaki City Museum, which Dr. Tateishi mentioned

the end after everyone’s discussions become active.

earlier, was submerged by the flooding of the Tama

Let me briefly introduce what I studied

River in 2019. The Kawasaki City Museum is situatedSonoda Do the other presenters have questions?

in a place called Todoroki, which is near a bank of theTama River. Looking into the origin of the Todoroki

Ishimura

In Dr. Nakatsuka’s presentation, hearea, I found that the Tama River once flowed in the

explained that medium-term changes over 30 toarea. The river once meandered but was straightened

60 years lead to social catastrophes because they

to today’s route from around the Edo period. The

are forgotten as it is rare for humans to experience

Kawasaki City Museum was built in a former bed

these changes in their lives. It is often the case thatof the Tama River. Upon hearing the place nameonce on shore, we pray no more, and therefore, it is“Todoroki,” some people may recall another place.

very difficult to pass on the memories of disasters.

In Tokyo’s Setagaya City, there is also a place named

In particular, disasters that occur because of climate

Todoroki, which is home to the Todoroki Valley Park.

change are probably medium-term changes that happen

Formerly, the northern Todoroki and the southern

beyond a human lifetime, like a periodic change overTodoroki were part of the same land area. They are

30 or 60 years. I think passing on such changes andnow separated because the Tama River runs through thememories is a difficult challenge. Dr. Nakatsuka, if you

middle, but the place names remind us that they were

have any ideas to pass them on to the next generation,

actually once the same land. However, such old placeplease let me know.

names are doomed to disappear with the times. I am
not sure that place names themselves can be said to be

Nakatsuka

It is a very essential problem. As

with climate change, it is difficult to hand down theintangible cultural heritage, but I think it is important toleave memories included in such things.

memories of disasters as they occur periodically. As Dr.

One more thing I want to introduce is the story

Tateishi said earlier, there are serious problems withof Mabi-cho in Okayama Prefecture, where a flood

earthquakes, tsunamis, and other disasters that occurred

disaster occurred in 2018. Mabi-cho is situated on

in Japan, for which an enormous amount of researcha plain at the confluence of a large river called thehas been conducted. However, such a perspective is

Takahashi River and a relatively small river called theabsent from discussions of climate change. Here, I

Oda River. A flood disaster occurred there, the biggest

want to emphasize that they are actually the same thing.

reason for which is that the Takahashi River is a raised

It is very important to pass down memories throughbed river. A raised bed river flows above the adjacentgenerations, and according to Edo-period documents,

ground. They are caused by a build up of sedimentat the time of the Tempo Famine, 50 years had passed

carried by the river, which elevates the river over time.

since the Tenmei Famine, so while many elderly people

This happened here mainly in the Edo period and canwarned that a famine might occur soon, young people

be traced back to Tatara (foot bellows) iron making
43Panel Discussion

practiced in the upper part of the Takahashi River insuccessful adaptation, but also on maladaptation or

the middle ages. This used a technique that extracted

unsuccessful adaptation because I think we can learn airon sand using river water; through that process, large

lot about our failures, as well as our successes.

amounts of earth and sand flowed into the river. In

And one of the questions I had was, you talked about

short, the fact that the Takahashi River is now a raised

migration as a form of adaptation. And I think there's

bed river is also the result of human activities since

an interesting question to be had on the panel fromthe Edo period. There is a positive aspect that as soil

Dr. Ishimura’s talk as well, about whether migration

flows in this way, the alluvial plain there can be used as

is an impact, or whether it's a risk or an actual form

cropland to grow crops, but it is undeniable that there isof adaptation. But one of the questions I had was youralso a negative aspect in that the area is susceptible touse of building numbers to identify the movement

such disasters.

of people, and was whether or not it would also be

The place in Mabi-cho most affected by the flood

possible to integrate other archaeological data sets,

disaster in 2018 was actually an area relatively

like carbon 14 dating, to look at the increase of activity

recently developed as a residential area. Mabi-cho hasin certain areas, or even a look at things like a DNA,

repeatedly been hit by floods since the Edo period, andancient DNA to look at the movement of populations

after the war, the Takahashi River was improved so thatusing maybe stable isotopes as well, to kind of explore

flooding would be less likely. Partly because Mabi-chothat question of population migration. And maybe

became a bedroom suburb of Okayama and Kurashiki

it might fill in some gaps where we don't have theCities, a place that had been hit by floods until thenhistorical record.

was turned into a residential area and new residents
were not properly informed that it was vulnerable to

Nakatsuka

floods. This was already pointed out as a major causechanges are very important in archaeology. Probablyof the disaster in reports. In this case too, it is also

for the first time, I pointed out that an increase in theimportant to pass on its memories of vulnerability,

number of houses indicates an increase in the levelbut besides that, it is also necessary to give back toof migration, although there is no direct evidence.

society the result of academic analysis based on the

Many argue that the number of houses is proportional

history of human activities since the Edo period andto population in many cases. For example, looking at

geoarchaeology, that is, an archaeology of land, forthe second century shows that as migration records,

example, analysis of how soil has built up.

earthenware moved over a very long distance between

Records of migration and population

various areas in Japan. Some types of earthenware
SonodaI think he pointed out that the history ofas goods are sometimes found to have been moved.

human activities and what the people who lived there

Sufficient discussions about this have already been

took for granted are forgotten as time passes and thus

held. What I want to do now is dendrochronology

should be recorded or left in memories. Do you havebased on oxygen isotope ratios. I want to examine

any comment, Dr. Megarry?

when and where houses were built and when thosehouses disappeared in a short period when large climate

Megarry

44

Yes, thank you very much Dr. Nakatsuka

changes in decades-long cycles really happened. I

for a wonderful talk, which I found very interesting andwant to track such residential records in units of one

inspiring. And one of the things I enjoyed most was thisyear. This, however, requires a lot of materials madeidentification of tipping points between environmentalof good-quality wood. As Dr. Megarry said, carbon-14

change, climate change and cultural change. And I

concentrations and other various data are also required.

specifically enjoyed the fact that you focus not just on

DNA and the number of human graves are also

example. And also, we need to be building databases ofgraves does not change with migration, and it is also

this data, openly available data of the sites for people tonecessary to directly discuss migration and population

study going forward.

changes using such data to make our discussions more

Ideally, our records of these sites need to beaccurate. In fact, right now, I am undertaking such a

feeding into large open databases, which can allow

project. I will disseminate its results internationally.

us to – allow researchers, Ph.D. students, post-

Panel Discussion

important, if the conditions are good. The number ofdocs, and large projects, to explore their significance
Sonoda Well then, I want to accept questions for Dr.

to the archaeological record in the same way as

Megarry. Any questions?

archaeological data has been feeding in as well. And
one of the great challenges of that exercise is the scale

Nakatsuka

Dr. Megarry said that in cases in whichof loss and that as a discipline, in archaeology, we often

relics are being damaged by climate change, if theylack the resources to be able to respond to every site

will certainly be lost in the last stage, it is important tothat is eroding out of a cliff or flooded in a river. And

make records. Although most of the relics I mentioned

I think that is where actions like Citizen Science, so

in my speech are things of the past that do not currently

utilizing community engagement, Dr. Ishimura talked

exist, it is very important to make use of the records ofabout this in terms of communities helping to preserve

such relics for future research. However, I am not antheir own heritage. And in those cases, it's even moreexpert at all regarding this, so I would like to ask you.

important that the knowledge that is being collected is

Is there any organizational plan as to how such records

stored centrally. Because the risk is that as communities

are to be used?

or the general public are involved in this, that we might
not get records of that.

MegarryThank you for that question. I think the

So there needs to be project in place whichloss of our special places is one of the hardest things

encourage community engagement, encourage citizen

that society has to deal with when it comes to climate

involvement, but also make sure it's being donechange. As we saw at the recent COP, many countries,

robustly, and that the data being collected is then madeespecially those in the Pacific, are experiencing thisavailable in a standardized way. Thank you for yourloss at an alarming speed. The question of recording

question.

prior to loss, I think is one that maybe is easier forarchaeologists to actually accept, because it's such a

Sonodahuge part of what we do as a discipline. Most of us

evaluation is made in this CVI project, the perspective

have probably spent a lot of our lives working on largeof a community is taken into account and local people

infrastructural projects, excavating sites prior to their

are therefore involved in the evaluation. I understood

destruction. We have a unique perspective on loss. And

this to mean that evaluation is conducted mainly by

I also think a unique set of skills, which allows us tolocal people. I guess that this project is also intended

conserve by recording these places before they are lost,to develop human resources or involve people.

sometimes not all of them, sometimes we just sample

When the evaluation is completed, what should be

and excavate that way. In that sense, I think we alreadydone after that? Whatever you do, you actually needhave an established mechanism to record prior to thepeople’s know-how and money and also require time.

loss. But new tools and methodologies give us new

I would like to hear what steps are to be taken after theopportunities as well, especially in terms of things likeevaluation is conducted with this tool and what plan

3D recording. There are many platforms now online,

and ideas you have to make this project sustainable andwhich allow people to look at 3D models of things, forwork effectively.

I have a question related to this. When the45

Panel Discussion

Megarry

Yes, thank you for that question. Two

we had from six different African countries, most

responses. Yes, the inclusion of the local community,of them have gone on in their careers now to focus

local heritage professionals and site custodians are key

more specifically on climate impact vulnerability andto understand the vulnerability of sites because they

adaptation planning within their organizations and inbring different plural and sometimes even conflicting

other organizations.

beliefs as to the value of the Heritage under the site

So I would like to think that it's less about the tool,and threat. So, it's very important that they are listened

and more about the people involved in learning how

to. I would see the CVI and the tools associated withto use it, because I think they're the people who canvulnerability analysis as being less a tool and more of

instigate that change, which you're talking about. Anda toolkit. I don't think it's as simple as one step afterin fact, three out of our eight trainees from the CVI

another after another, I think it's important that it isAfrica course, will actually be speaking at a special

malleable and adaptable. In the CVI Africa project,

event we organized at the COP the climate change

we ran two workshops, one at a quite traditional

conference in Egypt in two weeks’ time. That is a majorarchaeological site, which we looked at today, andplatform for heritage professionals at – the highest

another one at a living cultural landscape with anplatform in the world on climate change, for them toindigenous community in Nigeria. And the techniquebring their experiences right to the heart of the global

had to adapt considerably in order to be able to work

discussions. And I think this is what's so powerful

in both places. For example, the stakeholder value

about heritage and one of our major findings from themapping and the integration of traditional knowledge

international co-sponsored meeting which we were atwere far more important in Nigeria than it was inwas the power of stories, the power of people, and the

Tanzania.

power of places to communicate about climate change

The final question is, how do what do we seein a meaningful way, is very important. And so thesecoming next? How do we integrate our learnings?

people, in a sense become advocates of the importance

Vulnerability and an understanding of vulnerabilityof culture, when thinking about climate change. Thankis an essential prerequisite to adaptation planning. If

you.

we make adaptation measures without understanding
how the site is vulnerable, we risk maladapting our

Sonoda Through the project, the awareness and way

sites and creating issues down the line that can causeof thinking of the students, local people, and people

more problems. For us, the best way of dealing within each country are changed, and their awareness of

this is not to do vulnerability assessment, but to embedclimate change issues is raised, which will lead to long-the skills necessary to do vulnerability assessment

lasting activities in communities. The project and tool

within people working in these countries and at theseare for that purpose, but what is actually important issites, because this means that it can become part ofthe development of human resources, and its seeds

the standard recording mechanisms at the site. So it's

and core are expected to grow and spread throughout

not a one off event. It's something that happens again

Africa.

and again and again, as any of the parameters involved

46

change. It would also hope that by embedding thisMegarryknowledge within the local community and the local

climate change is a truly geopolitical issue. It's

heritage sector, that it can feed into more higher level

affecting everywhere in the world from Stone Town

organizational priorities like for existence adaptationin Zanzibar to Stonehenge in England. And so it's notplanning, which we discussed earlier. And one of thejust necessarily about training people for Africa, but it's

lovely things about the project was of the eight students

that the experiences in Africa are also valid in Japan,

Yes, it's not just about Africa too, I think

transition in appreciating the urgency of the climate

picture too. Thank you.

crisis. We've seen unprecedented weather conditions,

Panel Discussion

Canada, and South America as well. So it's that bigger

heat waves, rain flooding in Ireland and the UK and
Ishimura

Dr. Megarry’s CVI project is a wonderfulWestern Europe. It's been one of the hottest summers

project and also has the effect of making communities

on record in France. And when we combine that withmore aware of climate change while involving them,a global fuel crisis, especially in Europe, which is also

if I remember correctly. In Oceania too, where I wascaused by the same thing that causes climate change,

involved in research, I had the impression that people’s

oil and petrochemicals and what have you, I think theawareness of climate change was strong. It seems thatreality of it's becoming very, very clear. And that also

not only government officials but also ordinary people

the bigger question of climate justice and equity, whichlike those who live in villages are highly interested.

is that those least responsible for climate change are

Behind this is the fact that climate change is athe ones suffering most and those most responsible forgeopolitical issue. In developing countries in particular,

climate change have the greatest capacity to adapt, isthe impact of climate change tends to be greater

one of the worst and most difficult aspects of climate

because they are especially vulnerable. Such countries

change.

are extremely likely to be the first victims of climate

In a sense, we perpetuate great historical injustices

change or are actually already being harmed, so theirof exploitation by continuing to produce greenhouseawareness is strong.

gases which most negatively affect people in otherBesides, there is a strong sense of unfairness thatcountries. I would say people’s awareness of the impact

developed countries are mainly responsible for theof climate change on cultural heritage, where I'mcurrent situation and developing countries are mostfrom, is not high. It's not as high as say its impact on

disadvantaged by the results.

agriculture or coastal communities. What often is theConsidering the extent to which Japanese people arecase is that specific examples of impacts will have aaware of climate change issues, the mindset of savingvery large public response and that will then create aelectricity in daily life to reduce the amount of carbon

platform for us to talk more about this, but I also thinkdioxide emissions is becoming common together witha lot of it is back to this idea that cultural heritage isSDGs, but Japanese people still seem not to be very

embedded in so much of our society already. And so,aware that because of the impact of climate change,sometimes what we have to do is we have to talk about

they themselves may actually be affected and cultural

those aspects of culture in migration and businessheritage may actually be damaged.

and tourism and all these things in the role of cultural

Dr. Megarry is conducting such a project in theheritage in these things, in order for people to realize

U.K. What is the general public’s awareness of climate

more that cultural heritage is a key part of this impact

change in a developed country like the U.K. and how

by climate change. Thank you.

aware are they of the extent to which it may affectcultural heritage?

Tateishi Dr. Megarry, thank you for a very interesting
report. There are some questions I would like to ask.

MegarryThank you for that question. I'll answer

The Nara Document, which I also mentioned in mythe second part first. I think that about five years

speech, appeared in Dr. Megarry’s speech. It was very

ago, people in Europe talked about climate change

impressive. I and other members who are engaged

as something that will happen. And in the last fivein the preservation of Japan’s cultural properties are

years now people are talking about climate change as

always conscious of the Nara Document, but honestly,

something that is happening. And that's an important

we did not expect to hear about it today from Dr.
47

heart of Neolithic Orkney, where they've had to literally

Panel Discussion

Megarry.
The Nara Document expresses and declares thebuild concrete protection around a Neolithic tomb. It's

diversity of cultural heritage and the diversity of

impossible that that is not impacting the authenticity ofmethods and approaches of heritage protection.

that site. But without doing that, the entire site is lost.

According to Dr. Megarry’s speech, standardization isI think not just in our document, but the examples

required for recording, and I agree with this statement.

of the conservation of wooden architecture. The

How can we make use of the concepts of the Naraneed to think about the locally specific, as you said,

Document when considering not only protection against

values and meanings of sites, offers us an exciting

disasters but also all aspects of cultural heritage? They

way to think about the evolving landscape of World

will make a difference in the role of communities,

Heritage and heritage management. And maybe

the development of human resources, and the action

retain concepts of OUV by thinking differently about

to take for individual heritage artifacts, which wereconcepts of authenticity and integrity. Now, as I

summarized by Dr. Sonoda earlier.

said, this is a huge conversation. And it is currently

Of the examples that Dr. Megarry gave us, I

happening at the moment in UNESCO, where they're

would like to know concrete examples in which such

revising the policy document on cultural heritage anddifferences can be seen, especially in terms of theclimate change. There's a massive reticence I think,concepts of the Nara Document. Such examples will

understandably, within the heritage community, bothlikely be very informative for experts in Japan like us.

cultural and natural to move away from this concept of
OUV, the standard World Heritage concept. But there

MegarryThank you very much, Dr. Tateishi, fordefinitely is space for us to think about authenticity andthat question. And I feel nervous speaking of such an

integrity differently. And documents like Nara give us

important document, so close to where it was written

a framework to do that in a really very important way.

and where it came from. So please bear with me andBut as I said, it's rather intimidating talking about suchbe patient in my response. Climate change is going

an important document with people who were probably

to force us to rethink many of the central concepts ofinvolved in promoting it and being part of it. So, I hopeWorld Heritage. Already, we have seen concerns inthat answers your question, Dr. Tateishi, does it?

natural heritage say the Great Barrier Reef in Australia,
about the impact of climate change on the outstanding

Tateishi I think it is also related to the difficult issue

universal value of that property. And it is alsoof what to think of the “U” (Universal) in OUV. I haveundoubtedly going to it is and will cause us to question

learned a lot. Thank you very much. Regarding the very

concepts of authenticity and integrity.

difficult aspects of authenticity that Dr. Megarry justFor example, the traditional European approach that

described, it will become even more difficult when it

structures must be conserved, using the same materials

comes to what to think of the authenticity of traditional

which were used to construct it in the first place, or theknowledge, which was explained by Dr. Ishimura,conservation efforts should not affect the authenticity,

including the parts that can currently be changed. Whenor the integrity of structures just might not be an option

I heard your story, I was really inspired. Thank you.

in the future with climate change. If it is necessary topreserve a coastal site from eroding into the ocean by

Sonodaputting up concrete walls, then we must think about

Ishimura. Any questions?

Next, I want to accept questions for Dr.

whether or not traditional concepts of authenticity

48

are actually useful anymore in those situations. One

Megarry

example would be the Scottish site of Skara Brae, thewhere you talked about the living experience of people

Dr. Ishimura, I loved the part of your talkprotecting traditional culture; that is, whether people

we're faced with a false choice, where we're told that in

who have lived there for generations should protect it

the urgency of climate change, we have to save people

or whether people who came from outside can inherit

at all costs, even if it means we sacrifice culture. I'm

it. Then, there is another question. Now, conscious

wondering if you think that is correct, that approach,efforts seem to be made to combine traditional culture

and what your experience would tell you about theand advanced technology, and so on. How can we

importance of culture when people do have to move?

evaluate such efforts in terms of the protection ofPanel Discussion

versus their cultural heritage. And very often, I thinkcultural heritage or intangible cultural heritage? What
Ishimura

In front of the large stream of climate

do you think about this?

change, culture tends to be swept away. However, fortraditional knowledge and culture, it is not enough

Ishimura

just to leave old things as they are, as I said in mytradition, what the original community is becomes anpresentation. For example, you will agree that it isissue. However, in a community, there are often few

very radical to say that you should live with your oldpeople who have lived there for generations. Population

lifestyle left as it is. Consider what meaning traditionis always on the move. From a historical perspective,

has for communities, I always think that a community

large-scale migration of people should be considered

in which traditional culture and society remain strong

as in Dr. Nakatsuka’s speech, but here, for clarity, let

is a highly resilient community. Looking at culture andme introduce an actual example from Amami-Oshima

its relationship with disasters in various communities

Island, where I conducted fieldwork.

When we think about a community andin Japan and overseas, it seems that in the event of a

I think that Amami-Oshima Island is widely

disaster, responses are sufficient and reconstruction

recognized as an area in which traditional communities

is quick in highly resilient communities, in which

are well-conserved. I previously conducted a survey

traditional culture tends to remain strong. This means

to hear the life history of people who live in a certainthat the strength of tradition for a community canvillage. I interviewed almost all the villagers. I foundbe a criterion with which to assess the community’sthat few people had actually lived in the village forresilience and soundness. It may be an exaggeration toa long time. In Amami-Oshima Island, there were

say that leaving tradition itself is not so important, butmany people who followed a pattern of leaving thecreating a strong community in which tradition can becommunity and then returning to it, including thoseleft is more important and will also lead to adaptation

who left the island once to find work or, in earlier

to climate change. This is my view and opinion.

times, to go to war. More recently, there were also
many people who had come from outside, that is,

Nakatsuka

After hearing that, I totally agree. I

belong to the Graduate School of Environmental

those who were not originally natives of this particularvillage in Amami-Oshima Island.

Studies, which is a research department of Nagoya

Considering the factors that allow a community

University, where there are many people who are doing

to be regenerate in such a situation, there are casesa revitalization project for a hilly and mountainous

in which people who once left the island return andarea. For such a project, the definition of a community

revitalize the community and in which people who

is very important. They discuss cases in which peoplecame from a totally different place in search of work

move into and revive marginal villages (depopulated

start a new business and refresh the community in thatvillages where most inhabitants are senior citizens),

way. With this, a community is always invigorated. As

although I do not know whether it is simply a goodfor whether it is the same as in former times, it is, ofthing. Then, I want to ask who takes the lead incourse, different. However, I do not think that tradition49

Panel Discussion

is interrupted. Rather, I think that tradition always

burn farming is actually environmentally sustainable.

changes and is always renewed in such a way. Looking

I think it is possible for such abstracted knowledge toat a somewhat older history, you will see that in

be helpful in other areas. Secondly, for example, efforts

Amami-Oshima Island, there were already people who

like the CVI have been made in Fiji, Kiribati, Tanzania

had a lifestyle of, for example, moving to other areasand so on, and I think that the efforts themselves cansuch as Satsuma and Okinawa or going to Southeast

be referred to as good practices in other areas. In that

Asia to engage in deep-sea fishing. In short, traditional

sense, they can contribute to horizontal relocation.

life is by no means static.
With that in mind, I want to answer Dr. Nakatsuka’s

Sonoda Dr. Megarry, what is your opinion?

last question regarding how to evaluate new technology.
Although the example I just explained may be a little

Megarry Yes, I think that answer is brilliant, I don't

different from that about new technology, a community

have a huge amount extra to say. Traditional knowledge

always accepts new elements and uses them as an

and local knowledge are also owned by traditional

opportunity to revitalize the community. This is very

knowledge keepers and local knowledge keepers. And

important in terms of community sustainability, and aso we need to be careful as we sit here and talk aboutcommunity in which this process is going well can beknowledge in Tanzania and Nigeria, to be aware that's

said to be highly resilient overall and also be resistantnot necessarily our knowledge in some cases, especiallyto disasters.

with indigenous knowledge, even if it's deemed to be
useful. So, it's back to the question of consent, andSonoda Now, we have received a question from themaking sure people share it. But I mean, absolutely, ina participant. Let me introduce it as it is related to both

Nigeria, they'd be noticing the closet changing climate

Dr. Ishimura and Dr. Megarry: “This is an ‘if possible’

for 15 years now. And their solution was to changethought experiment. Suppose that the traditional

the structure of their stone doorways in the village toknowledge of Kiribati and Fiji to respond to storms

move the breeze around differently in a way to cool it.

and floods, which was explained by Dr. Ishimura, is

And that's not a model that can be picked up and put

relocated across regional boundaries to the port city

somewhere else. Likewise, planting mangroves might

at Kilwa in Tanzania, which was mentioned by Dr.

be great in Tanzania. It's not going to work in northern

Megarry. In this case, what should we pay attention

Scotland, right, where they just won't plant. Okay.

to?” I would like to hear opinions from both of you.

But I think that there's a way of thinking about
adaptation, and assessing risk vulnerability, andIshimura

50

Local knowledge and indigenousdeveloping adaptation plans, which can be transferred.

knowledge only work there, and this is why they are

And so crucial to this is having our colleagues fromlocal and indigenous. As such, I think it will be quite

Fiji, Kiribati, Tanzania, Nigeria, as part of being abledifficult for such knowledge to be directly useful into communicate and talk with professionals elsewhereother areas. For example, the story of predicting a

in the world about the processes, the methodologies,

cyclone from the flying pattern of frigate birds in Fiji

the way in which they think about climate change andwill probably become a different story if you go to aabout vulnerability and about site adaptation is very

different village in Fiji. Therefore, direct relocation ofimportant because otherwise, we just work in silos,

such knowledge will be difficult; however, it may be

and people reinvent the wheel in different places. And

possible if the knowledge is a little more abstracted. I

it's one of the reasons we're so keen, not necessarily tointroduced the term “wise use” as the sustainable use ofdevelop a tool like CVI but to develop a set of tools andnatural resources. For example, it is said that slash‐and‐resources that are malleable and can be used differently

began in the 20th century. The past is different from

Panel Discussion

in different places. Thank you.

the present, but the future is also different from theSonoda Again, direct migration seems to be difficult

present. Global environmental problems, including

because cultures and backgrounds differ. But, if there

the current global warming, have great power andis information and knowledge about what has not been

influence and will change the world radically, so wedone so far, this can provide new hints, so that thatcannot understand the future just by seeing the present.

person, the community, and the people living there may

In that sense, the tool for connecting all the past,

apply them in their own way. In that sense, sharing

present, and future is cultural heritage, and I think it isinformation is very important.

very important to make use of it. Today, I spoke from

Here, I want to move on to a slightly different butthat perspective, but for researchers in history andrelated subject. The purpose of holding a symposium

archaeology as well as many of the general public, itof the consortium is to explore the possibility ofis not common to consider the relationship between

international cooperation for a better future for cultural

past climate change and cultural heritage from thatheritage. I would like to ask the presenters to speak

perspective. There were comments and questions fromabout the possibility of international cooperation. First,

Dr. Tateishi in terms of international dissemination,

Dr. Nakatsuka, please.

which I think remains insufficient. I have expressed
several opinions in terms of natural science, of course,

Nakatsuka I have already answered some questions,but from now on, I think I should actively express mywhich were asked before. The answer I reserved earlier

opinions about the relationship of climate with history

was different from international cooperation, so let me

and culture.

start with that.

I am working eagerly on international cooperation

When analyzing the annual rings of trees, I cut

in the natural sciences. I believe that extending such

cultural properties with a saw and otherwise cause

cooperation to the level of culture and speaking aboutdamage to them. This kind of topic is difficult to discuss

its relationship with climate change is commonly

here, but after listening to today’s discussion, I realized

required for Europe, America, Asia, Africa, and allagain that cultural heritage itself is not only what

other regions. We have received many comments about

should be protected but also information sources that

this. I will work seriously and quickly on international

are crucially important in adapting to and mitigating

cooperation in this academic sense.

climate change. With cultural heritage becoming
increasingly lost all around the world, I realized again

Sonodathat all of you are working eagerly on its preservation

situations in other countries. What can Japan do foras it is no longer possible to leave this situation as it is.

the world? What roles and contributions are expected?

In the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, toYour personal opinion is fine. Probably, you are thewhich I belong, I discuss climate change and all aspects

Dr. Megarry, you know a lot about themost suitable person to answer the questions.

of global environmental problems on a daily basis.
However, among the environmental studies researchers,

Megarry Thank you very much. I'll speak both fromas well as those in meteorology and climatology, very

personal opinion and from what we feel like we need

few are interested in the world in the past, including

within the working group. From that kind of higher

cultural heritage.

level, one of the things we've already talked about,Some people say that it is no use looking at old

which is that we need to reconceptualize how wethings because the past is different from the present

think conservation practice, and constant preservation,and global environmental problems are problems thatin terms of climate change, we need to get better at51

Panel Discussion

managing change, not preventing it. And we need toinventing something new, it doesn't make any sense.

rethink some of the core concepts, which we currently

From a personal perspective, then we have a saying

use to think about heritage practice, especially inin our working group that which is that every play has aEurope and North America. And so we've alreadyclimate story. What that saying means is when we wanttalked about the amazing, what Japan has and can

to communicate about climate change and its impacts

offer in that. And I think there are indeed incredible

globally, all our heritage sites have a role to play incapacities, knowledge and resources there both in terms

it. And I think countries like Japan, who have one ofof knowledge, but also as a wealthy country, much likethe longest histories, archaeologically, all the way up

the UK, Europe.

to through the industrial period and into the present

We have a duty to fund and to ensure just transitions

day, offer a unique insight into so many aspects of ourespecially with countries that are suffering the effects

past, who we are, where we come from. And that thoseof climate change they did not cause. I think there's

places or assets to think about the future, we say, we

research bodies in countries like Japan, and countries

often say that the secrets to a post-carbon future lie in alike the UK, the European Union, the USA, needpre-carbon past.

to have more research, which funding and more

I think that's another really important asset here,

development funding, which is linked specifically towhich is the depth of your culture, the depth of history

cultural heritage and climate change. And that would

here, and what they can tell you. I mean, for example,

just be equitable and be fair.

one of the themes that came out of the International

A second thing that I really think Japan can offer

co-sponsored meeting was, how are we going toin this regard is disaster risk management. And weconceptualize industrial heritage in 20 years’ time, inheard Dr. Tadeishi’s wonderful presentation already50 years’ time, when the climate emergency is much,with regards to the response to the earthquake. I comemuch, much more severe than it is now? How dofrom a country where we don't really have natural

we think about those assets, those industrial heritage

disasters. Now, depending on who you talk to, someassets associated with fossil fuels with petrochemicals

people would say there's no such thing as a natural

thinking to the future? That's a challenge we needdisaster. There are events and human systems maketo think about now because there is a risk that they

them disastrous. But I think that, in that sense, many

will become seen as negative things. And we need tocountries don't have a history of having to think

conceptualize how we're going to think about that, at

about these things. It puts us on the backfoot, so that

this point, we need to do it before it happens. And you

considering the long history here of disaster risk

know, countries like Japan with sites that allow us to

management, that is a huge, huge asset and skill set

have those conversations are really very important.

present in Japan that a lot of countries just don't have

And of course, we've already heard so clearly andand really need to think about in that regard.

wonderfully today about how the past and past places

And I think there's an open question, and I'm surecan tell us about the climate change as well and maybe

it would be a wonderful conversation we could haveidentify ways of thinking moving forward about

about whether or not climate vulnerability and risk

adaptation.

fits within disaster risk management or whether it's

So in that sense, I think if every place has a climate

something different. I tend to think they're very similarstory, there are lots of stories to tell here. And it's ain some ways and very different than others. But I

real asset in thinking about how we respond to and talkcertainly think we would be not utilizing our full

about climate change. Thank you.

global knowledge and capacities by not thinking about
what one has done already when we're thinking about
52

Ishimura

I would like to speak about international

specimen box of diverse cultures that mankind has.

cultural heritage. International cooperation forThat is, the fact that diverse cultures are listed in theprotecting intangible cultural heritage is probably

Representative List indicates that mankind has diverse

somewhat different from when protecting tangible

cultures. So, why is cultural diversity important? The

cultural heritage. This comes down to fundamental

reason is that diversity will become a very powerful

differences between the World Heritage Convention

weapon for society to address disasters, climate change,

and the Convention for the Safeguarding of Intangible

and other risks, as explained by Dr. Nakatsuka in his

Cultural Heritage. The framework of protecting

presentation. We currently face the problem of climate

cultural heritage internationally is common to bothchange, which all mankind faces equally. Throughconventions. The primary purpose of the Convention

diversity, mankind itself needs to address this issue. In

for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritagethat sense, what the Convention for the Safeguarding

is to urgently protect the intangible cultural heritageof the Intangible Cultural Heritage aims for will leadthat is currently endangered. Another purpose is toto the preservation and protection of the diversity ofmake intangible cultural heritage more visible. This

mankind. Protecting this diversity will in turn give us

is intended to not only make it clear that a heritage

the power to fight against climate change. Regarding

property of interest has value in itself but also spread

what Japan should do in terms of international

among people awareness that the existence of ancooperation, I explained that it is not that experts

intangible cultural heritage itself is precious; these arein Japan are more knowledgeable about intangible

explicitly stated in the convention. They are important

cultural heritage in other countries than local people

because there is a fundamental idea that intangible

living there. This means that through Japan’s rolecultural heritage shows the diversity of various cultures

in international cooperation, it is important to makearound the world.

intangible cultural heritage visible and provide support

The Convention for the Safeguarding of theIntangible Cultural Heritage has a list called thePanel Discussion

cooperation, focusing on issues related to intangible

for realizing diversity, instead of protecting intangible
cultural heritage itself.

Representative List. This is similar to the World
Heritage List, but there are differences. As mentioned

Tateishiin Dr. Megarry’s presentation, heritage that have

Dr. Megarry, and Dr. Ishimura about cutting-edge

Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) are registered inresearch. Thank you very much. Partly because of Dr.

the list of the World Heritage Convention, whereas

Nakatsuka’s efforts so far in Japan, various findings

the Representative List of the Intangible Cultural

about a point of contact between climate change andHeritage of Humanity in principle does not consider

history have been produced in Japan and abroad, but

the value of cultural heritage to be listed. The heritage

when it comes to a point of contact between climate

in the Representative List is listed not because itschange and cultural heritage and properties, this event

value, although this may not be so familiar to manyis the first of its kind or is at least close to it and epoch-people. This is because it is self-evident that intangible

making, as far as I know. I also learned a lot through it

cultural heritage, whatever it may be, is valuable forand became aware of the trends around the world. First,

the community that possesses it. As such, evaluation

I want to start with sharing its results within Japan.

Today, I learned a lot from Dr. Nakatsuka,of its value by experts and outsiders is presumptuous

As I said at the beginning, Japan’s experience inin itself, which is the idea of the Convention for theprotecting cultural properties against disasters will

Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage.

probably help contribute to the world in various ways—

Then, it comes down to the question: exactly what

especially for tsunami-related issues, and measures notis the Representative List? It is considered just like ajust against tsunamis but also for cultural properties
53

Panel Discussionthat get wet through other disasters or are affected byThen, it is extremely important to work in coordination

radiation disasters. These are of course unfortunate

with not only the speakers here but also everyone who

events, but as a result, Japan leads the world in theis now in the hall and everyone who is participating

research and implementation of anti-disaster measures

remotely. In that sense, we, the Cultural Heritagefor cultural properties. I realize that it is important toDisaster Risk Management Center, should proceed withspread this knowledge within Japan and overseas. It may

our work while properly acting as a hub. I learned a lot

all come down to the concepts of the Nara Document,

today. Thank you very much.

which was mentioned earlier. I think it is important andrequired to make necessary arrangements while giving

Sonodadue consideration to the diversity in each region and to

Change and Cultural Heritage.” At first, many people

promote technology transfer while communicating withmay have thought that there would be no connection

local people.

between climate change and cultural heritage. Although

We must press on with this work while being

climate change and cultural heritage have not often

aware that when it comes to climate change, Japan, abeen connected so far, this symposium has addresseddeveloped country, is likely to be on the side that causes

this issue head-on. In the latter half, there were various

damage. It is necessary to consider this, especiallyopinions as to how to develop international cooperation

when proceeding with international work.

in the future. Our findings and experiences include

Dr. Ishimura mentioned intangible cultural heritage

pioneering research conducted in Japan, support thatin his speech. The types of cultural properties that are

Japan can provide regarding cultural heritage, the way

difficult to handle like this include tangible folk-culturalof interacting with tangible ethnocultural properties,

properties, which became a major theme, especiallyas mentioned earlier, and how to address damaged

after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Appropriate

cultural properties from the experience of Japan withmethods of handling them differ greatly from thatmany disasters. Dissemination of these findings andfor artistic crafts and buildings. First, it is difficult toexperiences may be of help in solving problems ofdetermine the range of cultural properties from all

climate change and cultural heritage.

other materials. Those are just living cultural properties

We in Japan can see various information on thehaving many points of contact with intangible cultural

Internet. If information is written in English, we canproperties and are therefore difficult to handle. I was

get and read it in some way. However, people outside

thinking about that while listening to the explanation ofJapan do not know what information there is in Japan,

intangible cultural heritage.

where to search first, and how to collect information;

The National Museum of Ethnology, as a national

if they can find information, there are a very limited

center, has worked on a big project for disaster response

number of people who can read papers and reports

related to tangible ethnocultural properties, especiallywritten in Japanese. People outside Japan know thatsince the Great East Japan Earthquake and even before

various things are happening in Japan. As I attend anthat, although Dr. Sonoda has not spoken much about it

academic conference, I am often asked questions such

today as she served as the facilitator.

as “What kinds of things is Japan doing?” and “I heard

Today, I participated from the perspective ofan amazing thing regarding this matter. What is theprotecting cultural properties against disasters, andtruth about it?” Partly because of this, I feel and believe

as I have talked with all of you, I have come to thinkthat this international symposium is an important placethat from now on, I will continue my work in Japanfor disseminating information from Japan to the world

and overseas while confronting climate change fromand sharing it with the world.

a wider perspective of protecting cultural heritage.
54

The title of this symposium is “Climate

I would like to thank the presenters who participatedPanel Discussion

in the panel discussion. I would like to thank those
who asked questions in the hall or through a chat. Thisconcludes the panel discussion.

55

Closing Remarks
KOHDZUMA Yohsei (Director, Cultural Heritage Disaster Risk Management Center)Thank you for participating in the Japan Consortium for International Cooperationin Cultural Heritage 2022 symposium “Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: What's
Happening Now?” On behalf of the organizers, I would like to say a few words of thanks
and greetings.
In addition to the three significant lectures in the morning, I believe that we were able
to delve deeper into the issues in the panel discussion in the afternoon. Every day, we getmore and more used to the region in which we live and our daily life become routine, as
the way of life in each region is handed down over the years. Unintentionally, we stop to
think about the history or identity of the region, but it's important, and that's what culture and cultural heritage are. Of
course, even though not everything has been handed down, things have changed with the times and become the way
we live today. However, disasters can destroy daily life in an instant. Only then do we realize its importance. This isespecially the case for disaster reconstruction; local culture, which is part of our daily lives, will be a major driving
force for reconstruction. Undoubtedly, the power of culture can revive a disaster-hit area.
We have discussed climate change and cultural heritage today, and the drastic influence the changing climate has
had on the environment. The intensity of heavy rains and storms has increased, and cultural heritage is being damagedby these events. We must come to fully understand climate change, disseminate and share information, and think
about how climate change will affect cultural heritage and whether traditional knowledge can be applied to it. I thinkthat's what it means, and a very important point has been made in today’s discussion. On a daily basis, we work fromthe standpoint of protecting cultures and cultural heritage, but the region itself is in a vulnerable situation due to social
problems such as depopulation, declining birthrate and aging population, and urbanization. According to today's
lectures, and through the discussion, I was made to think again, if we want to protect culture and cultural heritage, inother words, protecting the livelihoods of local communities while sustainably developing them, we must also turn ourattention to the underlying social problems.
The problems related to climate change and cultural heritage that we have been addressing today cannot be solved
immediately, but I believe that we must urgently and swiftly respond to climate change, which is progressing at atremendous speed.
Thank you very much for taking the time to participate in the symposium. We have heard that there are many
participants online as well. I hope that we will continue to put our heads together on climate change and cultural
heritage issues and seek possibilities to create a better future. Thank you very much.

56

Report on the JCIC-Heritage 2022 Symposium“Climate Change and Cultural Heritage:
What’s Happening Now?”
June 2023
Published by : Japan Consortium for International Cooperation in Cultural Heritage
C/O Independent Administrative Institution National Institutes for Cultural Heritage
Tokyo National Research Institute for Cultural Properties
13-43, Uenokoen, Taito-ku, Tokyo 110-8713, Japan
Tel: +81-(0)3-3823-4841 / Fax: +81-(0)3-3823-4027