Strategies for achieving carbon
neutrality by mid-century andSDGs:
their multiple co-benefits Prosperity
Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Social Inclusion
Sustainability

Director of The World in 2050
Former Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Former Professor of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium: Long-term climate strategy toward
carbon neutrality, Tokyo, Japan – 13 February 2020

The World is at “Crossroads”
Explosive development transgressing
planetary boundaries but many left behind Global economy increased 100 fold,energy 50 times and CO2 30 times

 Temperature increase over 1oC, about 8
million die due to indoor and regional airpollution
 Achievement of Paris Agreement would
bring multiple co-benefits for people andthe planet
Nakicenovic

2020 #2

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.6 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2018, 61% over 1990
Projection for 2019: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 0.6% higher than 2018 (range -0.2% to 1.5%)
Fossil CO2 emissions will likely be more than 4% higher in 2019 than the year of the Paris Agreement in 2015

Paris

Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation(IPCC “likely” range)

Kyoto

The 2019 projection is based on preliminary data and modelling.
Nakicenovic Source: CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al 2019; Global Carbon Budget 20192020 #3

Holocene, Paris &Tipping Elements

Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

Nakicenovic Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 20162020 #4

Greenhouse gas emissions pathways
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2emissions fall by about 45% by2030 (from 2010 levels)● To limit warming to 1.5°C,
CO2 emissions would need toreach ‘net zero’ around 2050
● Reducing non-CO2 emissions
would have direct andimmediate health benefits

“Carbon Law”

Nakicenovic

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 20172020 #6

“Carbon Law”

Nakicenovic

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 20172020 #7

“Carbon Law”

Nakicenovic

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 20172020 #8

Climate Policy Impact on SDGof stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050
Robust adverse effects

Krey et al. (submitted) – under embargo, do not cite

adverse effectDirection depends onmitigation strategy

Robust co-benefits

co-benefit
Krey et al. (submitted)

Climate Policy Impact on SDG
of stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050
adverse effectco-benefit
Krey et al. (submitted)

Climate Policy Impact on SDG
of stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050
adverse effectco-benefit
Krey et al. (submitted)

Climate Policy Impact on SDG
of stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050
adverse effectco-benefit
Krey et al. (submitted)

Students studying under street lights

Nakicenovic

2020 #13

14The Great Gatsby Curve

Higher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility
Veća prihodna nejednakost povezanas nižom međugeneracijskom mobilnošću.
The Great Gatsby Curve

Intergenerational earnings elasticity
0.6

United States
0.6(2010 Gini)
United States(2010)

0.5

0.5

United Kingdom
United States
France

0.4

0.4
Japan

Germany
0.3

New ZealandSweden0.2

0.3

y = 2.2x - 0.27
R² = 0.76
0.2

Finland
Norwayy = 2.2x - 0.27
R² = 0.76

Denmark

0.1
0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.1
0.40

Inequality(1985 Gini Coefficient)

NakicenovicSource: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger, 2012 2020 #14

Than a Miracle Occurs

Nakicenovic

2020 #15

Grand Transformation

Nakicenovic

2020 #16

Interplay and the SDGs
• Fundamentally, there are two agendas
embedded in the SDGs
– We can call them (i) the human security agenda
and (ii) the planetary boundaries agenda• The challenge is to make these agendas
synergistic rather than competitive– Consider the case of Africa and the issues ofdemographic trends and food security under theimpacts of climate change
Oran Young, Program on Governance for Sustainable Development
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

UN DESA and UNFCCC conference on
synergies between the SDGs and theParis Agreement – 1-3 April 2019
Copenhagen.
Nakicenovic

2020 #18

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Human capacity
Demography &HealthDigital
Revolution

Smart Cities& Mobility

Food, Biosphere& Water

Nakicenovic

SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability

Consumption& Production

Decarbonization& Energy

2020 #19

Moore’s Law – DRAMS Prices per Bit
1.E+041971

1K
4K

1.E+0316K

millicents per bit

64K
256K

1.E+02

1M~30% decline per doubling

4M
16M

1.E+01

64M
Total1985
1.E+001994
1995

1.E-01

1996
1997

1999

1998

1.E-02
1.E+091999

1.E+101.E+11

1.E+12

1.E+13

1.E+14

1.E+15

1.E+16

1.E+17

1.E+18cum shipments (bits)

Nakicenovic

Source: Gruebler, 2000

2020 #20

Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson

Granularity Benefits
Higher Learning with Smaller Unit Scale After Accounting for Economies of Scale

De-scaled Learning Rate (Cumula ve Number of Units)'De-scaled' Learning Rates(per doubling of cumula ve numbers of units)
40%
30%

y = -0.02ln(x) + 0.0822
R² = 0.33179

smaller units

geothermal

20%-> more units

10%-> more
opportunities toexperiment

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1.E-04-> more learning

nuclear
1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

Average Unit Size (MW)Nakicenovic

Healey, S. (2015). Separating Economies of Scale and Learning
Effects in Technology Cost Improvements. IR-15-009., IIASA
2020

#22

Disruptive Technology Diffusion(access to cellphones)
100%

Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs
OECD

80%

60%

Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs

40%

Non-OECD

20%
0%
1900

1925

Nakicenovic19501975

2000

Source: Grubler, 2016

2025

2050
2020 #23

“Everyone” in the World has aMobile Phone
 Motorola 3200
first GSM phone in 1992
 After less than there decades of diffusion
There are now over 9.32 billion phones(GSMA) for 7.74 billion people, but ….

Nakicenovic

2020 #24

Acceleration of Initial Diffusion

Nakicenovic

Source: Heltemes 20192020 #25

Nakicenovic

2020 #26

End-use and Supply Efficiencies andUpstream Leverage Effect of Savings at Service Level
Energy (all services)
aggr. eff.: 14%
1 EJ saved =7 EJ primary energy

Water (ex. irrigation)
aggr. eff.: 17%
1 m3 saved =6 m3 water withdrawn
Materials (ex. steel)
aggr. eff.: 13%
1 ton saved =8 tons ore mined
Nakicenovic

2020 #27

Global Primary Energy
ALPS Low Energy Demand (LED)
1200

1000

800
EJ

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~55% improvement by 2030

Savings
Other Ren.
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass~20% renewables by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co600→ “Early Peak”

400

Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil

200

Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

Source: After Grubler et al, 20182050

2020 #28

Digital Revolution – Convergence
Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Big Data, Robotics,
Nanotechnology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology
The Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Block Chain,
Autonomous Vehicles, Augmented Reality

Nakicenovic

2020 #29

3D-printed vascularized-engineered heartat Tel Aviv University using human tissue,
vessels and other biological materials(Wieley-VCH, 2019)

PilCamswallobablecapcule
technogy(cs.cmu.edu)

Who is responsible forauthnomous weapons?
(https://futureoflife.org/201
6/11/21/peter-asaroautonomous-weapons/)
Robotic exoskeleton that will enable paraplegics
to do the unthinkable or make heavy tools feelweightless (https://eksobionics.com/eksoworks/)
Nakicenovic

2020 #30

Augmented reality is aninteractive experience of areal-world environment
where the objects that
reside in the real world areenhanced by computergenerated perceptual
information“Futuristic surgery” that
helped young woman
become first to have lungcancer removed by Da
Vinci robot by Intuitive
SurgicalNakicenovic

2020 #31

Xenobot: world's first living, self-healing robots created from frog
stem cells– they are less than a millimeter (0.1 millimeter) wide – smallenough to travel inside human bodies. They can walk and swim,
survive for weeks without food and work together in groups. The cells
were cut and reshaped into specific "body forms" designed by asupercomputer – forms "never seen in nature," according to a news
release from the University of Vermont.

Nakicenovic

2020 #32

Nakicenovic

Source: Gartner, 20172020 #33

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

Transformation to Sustainability“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:Sustainable
Future for All→ Growing number ofactors of change:•••••

green businesses
citiescivil society
science
IGOs (UN etc.)→ 2050: Sustainability
transformation→ New values and norms; newmorality and ethics→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 20112020 #34

Sustainability
Transformation to Sustiananability

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
Digitalization for
Sustainability

2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 201920112020 #35

Sustainability
Transformation to Sustiananability

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
Digitalization for
Sustainability

Sustainable
Digitalized Societies

2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 201920112020 #36

Sustainability
Transformation to Sustiananability

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
Digitalization for
Sustainability

Sustainable
Digitalized Societies

Future of HomoDigitalis?
2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 201920112020 #37

Some Key Messages● A new era in human history is emerging! After Neolithic& Industrial, the Digital Revolution is the next era.
● Digitalization can enable a disruptive revolution toward
a Digital Anthropocene – a quantum leap for civilization!

● The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene – digitalization
essential for achieving the Six Major Transformations &is challenging the absorptive capacity of society.

● Build responsible knowledge societies capable of taking
action towards sustainability in the Digital Age –governance urgently needed in Digital Anthropocene!.
● There are only 10 years to 2030!
Nakicenovic

2020 #38

Taipei Construction at Laan Station

Nakicenovic

2020 #39

Welcome to the Digital Anthropocene

Nakicenovic

2020 #40

ありがとうnaki@iiasa.ac.at