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RITE Today 2022

To Achieve a Low Energy Demand Society through Technologicaland Social Innovation－International Model Comparison Project EDITS－
Systems Analysis Group
Keigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Chief Researcher
Miyuki Nagashima, Senior Researcher
Ayami Hayashi, Senior Researcher
Atsuko Fushimi, Senior Researcher

1. Introduction

it is conceivable that energy conservation will continue

The Paris Agreement in 2015 set a goal to hold theto be the most critical issue in reducing CN emissions.

global average temperature increase to well below 2°C

In particular, the fusion of digital transformation (DX)above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit

and green transformation (GX) can bring about a virtu-

it to 1.5°C. Then, corresponding to the 2 °C goal as anous cycle of the environment and the economy.

emission reduction, a so-called carbon neutral (net zeroThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

emission) was agreed to balance the anthropogenic(IPCC) published the 1.5 °C Special Report (SR15)1)

emission by sources and the absorption by the sink forin2018. Various emission routes that achieve 1.5 °C weregreenhouse gases in the latter half of this century. Fur-shown there, particularly the scenario2) called Low En-

thermore, while the demand for early carbon neutrality

ergy Demand (LED) drew attention. This scenario shows(CN) was increasing at home and abroad, in Octobermuch less energy than the final energy demand, as

2020, former Prime Minister Suga declared that Japan

shown by regular model analysis. The scenario is said towould aim for CN by 2050. This is a goal that is con-be possible to contribute not only to climate change

sistent with the scenario of controlling temperature

countermeasures, but also to the simultaneous achieve-rises below 1.5 °C. After that, Japan said in April

ment of SDGs.

2021that it would deepen its emission reduction target

Figure 1 shows the world energy consumption by

to a 46% reduction in 2030 and that it would take onstage of energy use. Energy is wasted, particularly closethe challenge of further reducing it by 50%. In addition,

to where it is the end-use. Energy is often consumed

the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of theeven though it is unnecessary and does not contribute

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

to the service3). For example, lighting is a classic exam-

Change (UNFCCC) has concluded in November 2021,

ple and often illuminates even when no one is present.

countries agreeing to pursue efforts to limit the rise in

Although motion sensors have become economical inglobal average temperature to 1.5 °C.

recent years and have come to turn off automatically

To achieve CN, it is crucial to utilize a wide range ofwhen there are no people, they are still often lit in vain.

emission reduction opportunities such as renewable

We are not consuming energy for the purpose of con-energy, nuclear power, and so-called Carbon Dioxide

suming energy. As a result of an attempt to obtain aRemoval (CDR) technology, including Carbon Capture

more satisfying service, energy is consumed and CO2 is

Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and Direct Air Carbon di-emitted. It is essential to determine whether the services

oxide Capture and Storage (DACCS). On the other hand,

we take for granted are indispensable and what services

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we genuinely need.

RITE Today 2022

This paper introduces the commissioned projectIn the world, research on the Decent Living Standard“Model Comparison International Collaboration Project(DLS: appropriate standard of living, minimum standard

on Changes in Energy Demand by Technological Inno-

of living) is progressing, and according to the research,vation” by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry

the world's end-use energy consumption is about 400(METI). This project is known as EDITS (Energy Demand

EJ/yr. and would be about 600 EJ/yr. over the year 2050.

changes Induced by Technological and Social innova-

There are many analyzes that it would be about 400

tions) and started in 2020, intending to induce a change

EJ/yr., which is the same as the current level even within society by identifying opportunities for the realization

countermeasures for the 2 °C scenario, but some stud-of a low-energy demand society and presenting themies say that about 150 EJ/yr. from DLS is sufficient4). In-

as concrete and quantitative scenarios.

deed, the appropriate level may change since humanneeds are diverse; however, it is conceivable to be an

2. Possibility of realizing a society with low energy de-important study for understanding the factors that

mand in various sectors

cause a gap with actual energy consumption.
Noted that Reference 5) points out that the speed oftechnological progress of small-scale technology is of-

We examine the possibility of realizing a society withlow energy demand by sector.
2.1. Home appliances

ten seen on the demand side, and while there is a de-Changes in home appliances are being observed.

mand for rapid carbon neutralization, it is necessary to

Figure 2 shows that a variety of home appliances cantake measures on the demand side.

now be replaced by smartphone functions. In addition,

Factors that induce measures on the energy demand

the power consumption of smartphones is becomingside include the significant progress in digitalizationmuch smaller than that of home appliances. Even more

technology and the buds of social change, especially

important is the "embodied energy" of the product.

among young people in Europe. Under these circum-

The energy input at the manufacturing stage of a

stances, Reference 6) points out the need to strengthen

product is also greatly reduced when it is replaced byresearch on the demand side and research progress isa smartphone. Of course, not all functions can be com-

expected, with a new chapter focusing on energy de-pletely replaced, but the addition of other benefits

mand measures assigned in the sixth evaluation report(e.g., ease of mobility) will facilitate the re-placement,of the IPCC Working Group 3 scheduled to publish in

resulting in lower energy consumption and CO2 emis-

2022.

sions.

Figure 1 World energy consumption by stage of energyuse （assuming100% primary energy consumption）7)

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120
United States

Canada449 Watts
Power

5 Watts
2.5 Watts

72 Watts
Stand-byenergy use

Consumption per capita [kg/capita/yr]

100

EU
France80

Germany

Italy
60

Japan
China
Korea

40

India
Mexico20

BrazilWorld average075 kWh01706 kWh

0.1 kg1020
30
40
GDP per capita [thousand US$ in 2000 MER/capita/yr]

50

Figure 3 Transition in consumption of printing and writ-

Embodied energy

ing paper9)

26 kg
Weight2.3. Apparel

Figure 2 Substitution of home appliances and potential

Apparel has been pointed out as having a high envi-

for low energy use8)

ronmental impact due to its energy consumption frommanufacturing to disposal and its short life cycle. For

2.2. Paper medium
Paper has played a major role as a means of circulating information. On the other hand, paper and pulp is

example, the study10) shows that the fashion industry is
responsible for 8-10% of the global CO2 emissions (4-5billion tons per year) to the global environment.

an energy-intensive industry that requires a large en-

In addition, according to the literature11), CO2 emis-

ergy input in the manufacturing process. Figure 3 showssions from the use of clothing in European households

the transition in consumption of printing and writing(washing, drying, ironing, etc.) are estimated to be 530

paper. Recently, per capita consumption of printing andmillion tons per year. Although only rough estimateswriting paper has been on a downward trend not only

can be made, as the use of clothing and the mainte-

in developed countries but also in developing countries.

nance of the same garment (how many times it is worn)

The same trend is observed in the consumption of

depend on the choices of the individual consumer, it isnewspaper rolls. This is thought to be a result of the de-estimated that the CO2 emissions during the use phasecline in paper consumption as the IoT progresses, mak-of an average T-shirt account for half of its lifecycle

ing it relatively easy to obtain information using various

emissions. For example, when estimating the life cycle

digital devices. When digital devices first became wide-

emissions of a cotton T-shirt, if it is washed 50 times,

spread, there seemed almost no reduction in paper-

35% of the CO2 emissions are attributed to the fiber

based printing, but it appears that the combination of

production and 52% to the use stage. Although naturaladvances in devices and user familiarity is having an ef-

fibers emit less CO2 at the fabric production stage thanfect.

synthetic fibers made from petroleum, the low carbon

However, the consumption of corrugated paper con-footprint at the production stage may be offset at thetinues to show an upward trend due to the increase inuse stage because natural fibers require more energy

home delivery and other services.

for washing, drying, and ironing than synthetic fibers.

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Recently, apparel sales have been growing dramati-

capital such as stores, and facilities are included.） On

cally, and the reason behind this growth is the rise of

the other hand, it was estimated that roughly one-third

fast fashion. Fast fashion refers to a type of clothingof food produced for human consumption has beensales chain that emerged in the late 1990s and earlylost or wasted. The reasons vary by region, with over-

2000s and is characterized by the mass production of

production aimed at maximizing revenues and high lev-

clothing that follows the latest design trends in a shortels of waste at the consumption stage being common

cycle and sells it at low prices to encourage mass con-reasons in middle- and high-income countries14). If foodsumption. It is estimated that 50% of clothes are dis-demand can be predicted more accurately by utilizingcarded without being worn, and for many clothes, theInformation and Communication Technology (ICT),

utilization rates are low, and those are waiting in thewhich has made remarkable progress in recent years, itcloset to be worn.

is expected to not only reduce food wastage but also

The fashion industry is also promoting products thatsave plastic containers, space in supermarkets, and en-are environmentally and socially friendly. E-Commerceergy for refrigeration/freezing and transportation, lead-sales allow brand companies to avoid the energy con-ing to reduced energy consumption and GHG emissions.

sumption of maintaining physical stores and the need

It could contribute to the simultaneous achievement of

to carry inventory. However, as mentioned above, pur-the SDGs.

chasing clothes through e-commerce without trying

According to our study based on the input-output ta-

them on increases the number of unused clothes thatble for Japan15), if the food wastage in vegetable andare thrown away because the size does not fit or the

fruit cultivation, food industries, and households in Ja-

image is different. As a solution to this problem, virtual

pan could be reduced by 50%, it would contribute tofitting and automatic body shape measurement tech-

reducing total energy consumption in Japan by 0.04–

nologies are being developed.

0.08 EJ/yr. (0.2–0.4% of the primary energy supply in Ja-

In addition, the trading of used clothing through thepan) and GHG emissions by 5.9–8.4 million tons CO2

development of internet auctions is effectively the de-

eq/yr. (0.5–0.6% of GHG emissions). These figures fo-

velopment of clothing sharing, which encourages the

cused on Japan are not so large due to the relatively

matching of supply and demand, improves the utiliza-

small ratio of food wastage in Japan. However, if thetion rate of apparel products, and reduces waste.

food wastage could be reduced worldwide, including

For more information on apparel, please refer to theregions where there is much more potential for foodstudy

wastage reduction, the impacts would be significant.

.

12)

Our preliminary estimation for the world shows that if2.4. Foodthe food wastage in the world could be reduced

GHG emissions from the entire food system, includ-

through the assumed measures, the world GHG emis-

ing agricultural and fishery production, food processing,

sions would be reduced by approximately 1.1 GtCO2transportation, cooking, etc., were estimated to haveeq/yr16). The regional diversity of the food system is veryaccounted for 21-37% of total global emissions13).

high, and there is uncertainty in estimating food waste(These estimations are generally based on flows of

reduction effects; therefore, continuous scrutiny and re-

products and services; however, it is expected to be

search are necessary.

even larger if the emissions from constructing fixed8Feature

2.5. Mobility: Car and ride sharing

RITE Today 2022

terial efficiency. In addition, it is possible to manufac-

Advances in digitalization have a significant effect onture products according to individual needs rather thanmobility. A change called “Connected; Autonomous;

mass production, and there is a possibility of avoiding

Service & Shared; Electric (CASE)” is now taking place.

mass production and mass disposal.

The utilization rate of private cars is estimated to bearound 4-5%, and most of the time, private cars are un-

2.7. Behavioral transformation

derutilized. This is due to the convenience of being able

Not only technology but also individual behavioral

to travel in a private space at any time and promptly,

change and the resulting social change are also im-even at a high cost. However, if fully automated vehicles

portant. On the other hand, expecting behavioral

are realized, even if they become ride-sharing or car-change alone is unlikely to have a significant impact.

sharing, convenience will not be largely compromised,

A synergistic effect between technology and changes

and they could be available at a lower cost due toin social awareness would lead to major social changes.

higher utilization rates. Therefore, with the exception ofMovements such as ethical consumption will also en-some cars as preferences and the like, ride-sharing andcourage companies to change their behaviors, and leadcar-sharing could advance rapidly. Moreover, ride-shar-to response by society as a whole. For example, the rate

ing can directly reduce the energy consumption of ve-of driver’s license acquisition has been declining. This

hicles, and car-sharing can reduce the number of vehi-

will lead to a reduction in the purchase of private cars,cles and the use of materials such as steel and plastic,

which will motivate companies to develop fully auto-and lower the energy consumption required for theirmated vehicles.

production. RITE has also conducted quantitative analysis using an integrated assessment model17).
The OECD/ITF has developed a model based on actual data (population distribution, road and public

2.8. Rebound effectOn the other hand, there is a possibility of increased
energy demand as a rebound effect.

transport network, weekday trip demand (time of day,

According to the study19), it is estimated that theOD (Origin-Destination)), trip preferences, etc.)18). In

global data center power consumption was 194 TWh in

Dublin, Ireland, the study shows that if all private cars

2010 and increased to 205 TWh (about 1% of the global

were replaced by shared cars, the current mobility could

power consumption) in 2018. Electricity consumption is

be supplied with less than 2% of that number of vehicles.

estimated to have increased by only +6%, whereas the

If 20% of private cars were replaced (even without EVs),

calculated instance for the same period was +550%. The

CO2 emissions would be reduced by 22%.

main factors behind the increase in energy efficiency
are server efficiency, virtualization, storage drive effi-

2.6. Industries: 3D printing

ciency and densification, data center infrastructure effi-

3D printing (additive manufacturing: AM) is making

ciency, and changes in server types. On the other hand,progress. Compared to forming by making molds orthere is a possibility of the end of Moore's Law, andmodeling by cutting, AM can create complex shapes

some studies estimate a significant increase in data cen-and, in many cases, can create lighter products with theter power consumption in the future (e.g., Ref. 20).

same strength, which can lead to improvement in ma-

The rebound effect is not limited to the direct in-9Feature

RITE Today 2022

crease in electricity consumption by the IoT. For exam-

odologies across academic, energy, and environ-ple, if fully automated vehicles increase convenience,

mental disciplines, and expand them widely andthey may make people switch from trains and buses,

internationally.

triggering new travel demand itself. Furthermore, from3)

Make better policy recommendations througha macro perspective, even if consumption decreases instructured model experiments and simulations.

a particular field, it could have a rebound effect where

Notably, build and leverage models to addressenergy consumption and CO2 emissions increase due to

new areas and service supplies such as policy mak-a shift toward other consumption. In addition to theing with synergistic effects on the integration ofneed for comprehensive analysis, it is also necessary todigitalization, sharing economies, SDGs, and cli-develop comprehensive policies for the real world.

mate goals. Evaluate demand-side policy potential
impacts and barriers and others, including syner-

3. EDITS project overview

gies and trade-offs with other goals of SDGs.

Against this background and awareness of the problem, EDITS started as a commissioned project of METI
in 2020.
3.1. EDITS objectives

3.2. EDITS research group structure
The following working groups conduct researchbased on the themes to deepen the research, including

The June 2019 G20 Karuizawa Action Plan states thatthe contents introduced in Section 2. Moreover, each

"We recognize the importance of quantitative analysis

theme also plans to be integrated. The coordination of

on a better understanding future energy demand andthe entire research executes with the International Insti-

the role of innovation of both sides driven by digitaliza-

tute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) cooperation.

tion, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things【Sectoral Modeling/Analysis/ Consideration】(IoT), and the sharing economy. We encourage efforts◼ Industry Sector

to further refine and develop a full-range scenario[Primary Theme] Comparisons between industrial

across the economy for energy and climate models

sectormade by the global scientific community and interna-

poral/biophysical coverage, data availability, under-

tional institutions and frameworks."

standing of differences in methods, etc.), effects of

The EDITS project aims at the following three points.
1)

2)

Build an international research community with amodels(theoretical,

geographical/tem-material efficiency, etc.
◼ Building （Household） Sector

focus on the energy demand side. Share the latest[Primary Theme] Comparison between building sec-

data, concepts, methodologies, and policy analysis

tor models (regional differences, heterogeneity), theon the energy demand side. Through them,effect of the sharing economy and the impact ofdeepen discussions on research and policy analysis,

smart working on the commercial building sector,

and promote mutual enrichment.

etc.

Develop cutting-edge demand models for envi-◼ Transport Sector

ronmental and climate policy analysis through in-[Primary Theme] Comparison of transport sector

ternational comparisons of methodologies andmodels (activity type (passenger/cargo), location

models. In addition, develop concepts and meth-(urban/non-urban), vehicle size, mode difference,
etc.)

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RITE Today 2022with the project.

[Primary Theme] Demand-side micro data collection
and sharing【Sectoral Modeling/Analysis/ Consideration】◼

◼

◼

4. Conclusion
The road to CN realization is steep. Therefore, it isQualitative Scenario Examination/Development

necessary to mobilize all the various measures. Various[Primary Theme] Qualitative scenario construction

measures on the energy demand side induced by digi-

for low energy material demand in line with 1.5 ℃

talization can urge widespread use by reducing the bar-goals and SDGs

riers, “hidden costs.” The large-scale progress of digital-

Development of Protocol for Model Analysis Com-ization is probable to create a "virtuous cycle of envi-

parisonronment and economy," accompanied by changes in[Primary Theme] Execution of comparative analysis

the consciousness of the younger generation. In addi-

between models (model analysis comparison utiliz-

tion, it may contribute not only to climate change coun-ing the characteristics of each model)

termeasures but also to the resolution of various SDGs.

Sector Integrated Analysis
Table1 EDITS participating universities
research institutes[Primary Theme] Development of evaluation framework based on qualitative scenarios (welfare andfeasibility evaluation), etc.
Cross-sectoral themes focus on digitization, equity,
lifestyle/behavior change, business models, and theory
building.

Figure 4 EDITS Logos（From left to right,
Industry, Billing, Transportation, Data and Narrative Working Groups）

The energy demand-side spans various sectors and is

Research Institutes
International Institutefor Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)
OECD/ITF

Collection and analysis of transportation
sector-related information

Stanford University

Support for formulating shared scenarios forinternational model comparison

University of Tokyo, Institute for Future Initiatives

Formulation of shared scenarios for international model comparison, coordination withparticipating organizations and researchers

Lawrence Berkeley National Labs (LBNL)

Collection and provision of various datasuch as energy demand technology

Utrecht University

Collection and provision of various datasuch as energy demand technology

Euro-Mediterranean
Center on Climate
Change (CMCC)

Evaluation of the impact of digitization technology on energy, collection of related information, analysis, and estimation by international model

Tsinghua University

Collection and provision of various datasuch as model improvement and analysis in
China and related energy demand technology

UFRJ/COPPETEC

Collection and provision of various datasuch as model improvement and analysis in
Brazil and South America, and related energy demand technology

Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)

Collection and provision of various datasuch as model improvement and analysis ofIndia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, andrelated energy demand technology

Osaka University

Japanese consumer sector model analysis

University of Wisconsin

US-related data collection, analysis support,
impact assessment of digitization technology

University of California、Data collection and analysis support related

diverse from country to country. Therefore, as shown in
Table 1, the EDITS project is currently is being pursued
jointly by researchers with many specialized fields frommany countries and regions to carry out the above
themes. In addition, a wide range of researchers otherthan those listed in Table 1 participate and cooperate

Description
Coordination of the entire project with RITE,
formulation of shared scenarios for international model comparison, collection of related information

11

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RITE Today 2022

Santa Barbara (UCSB)

to the United States

5)

C. Wilson et al., Science 368(6486) (2020)

The Korean Society of
Climate Change ResearchCollection and provision of various datasuch as model improvement and analysis related to Korea and related energy demand
technology

6)

F. Creutzig et al., Nature Climate Change 8(4) (2018)7)

Global Energy Assessment (2012)

Central European University

European consumer sector model analysis

University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)

Industrial sector model analysis

University of Freiburg

Model analysis of industrial sectors and related information

ISCTE - University Institute of Lisbon

Cross-disciplinary analysis of technology, industry, policy, and related information

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate
Change (MCC)

Collection and provision of various datasuch as German model improvement andanalysis, related energy demand technology

University of East Anglia(UEA)

Analysis of lifestyle changes in Europe, andrelated information

University of Groningen

Analysis of the impact of environmental behavior and contextual factors on energy
technology and acceptability

https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/Flagship-Projects/Global-Energy-Assessment/Home-GEA.en.html
8)

A. Grübler et al. (2021)
https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/LED_Greenpeace_Gruebler.pdf

9)

FAO, FAOSTAT database (2021)

10) K. Niinimäki et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 1 (2020)11) G. Peters et al., International carbon flows: Clothing、
Carbon Trust (2011)12) K. Kitani and K. Akimoto, The 38th Conference on En-

This EDITS project continues to provide research re-ergy, Economy, and Environment (2022), 20-5

sults that will contribute to the following IPCC report13) IPCC, Special Report on Climate Change and Landand promote measures on the energy demand side ofgovernments and companies in each country. The energy demand-side measures, which EDITS considers tobe the main target, are not to reduce energy and CO 2
directly but to indirectly reduce energy and CO2
through changing and optimizing products and services,such as the development of digitization technology.
Therefore, it is difficult to recognize directly for the government and society, and there is a possibility that the
response may delay. Because of this, the goal of thisproject is to make the complicated system understand-(2019)
14) FAO, Global food losses and food wastage: extent,causes and prevention (2011)15) A. Hayashi et al., Journal of Japan Society of Energy
and Resources (2020)16) A. Hayashi et al.、The 38th Conference on Energy,
Economy, and Environment (2022), 20-217) K. Akimoto et al., Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2022)
18) OECD/ITF, Shared Mobility Simulations for Dublin(2018)

able and quantitatively visible and disseminate it to the19) Masanet et al., Science 367(6481) (2020)

government, companies, and society.

20) M. Koot & F. Wijnhoven, Applied Energy (2021)

References
1)

IPCC, Special Report on 1.5 C (2018)

2)

A. Grübler et al. Nature Energy 3(6) (2018)

3)

K. Akimoto et al., The 37th Conference on Energy,
Economy, and Environment (2021), 15-6

4)

J. Millward-Hopkins et al., Global Environmental
Change (2020)12