REGIONAL OFFICE FOR
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

Unconventional Monetary Policies: Looking Ahead
Jointly organized byHitotsubashi University andthe IMF Regional Office for Asia and the PacificJanuary 23-24, 2014
Tokyo, Japan

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Unconventional Monetary Policies: Looking Ahead
Jointly organized byHitotsubashi University andthe IMF Regional Office for Asia and the PacificJanuary 23-24, 2014
Tokyo, Japan
Unconventional Monetary Policies (UMPs) by advanced economy central banks are generally
believed to have helped restore the functioning of financial markets and intermediation, thereby
suppressing extreme downside risks. They have also arguably helped support growth in thehome countries. (See for example IMF Board paper ‘Unconventional Monetary Policies –Recent Experience and Prospects’, April 2013)
The assessment of UMPs’ global implications and their impact on emerging market economies
in particular, is decidedly more mixed. Some take the view that by helping growth in the homecountry the impact has been overall positive, while others have expressed concerns over thecapital flow and exchange rate implications of excessive liquidity. The ‘quantitative andqualitative easing’ by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has also drawn concerns from neighboring
countries concerning its exchange rate effects.
The recent decision of the Fed to begin ‘tapering’ of its asset purchase program has brought a
new dimension into the debate, and a key question is now how Fed tapering will affect theglobal economy and emerging markets, given the already large response that was triggered by
the announcement of prospective tapering.
Focusing on the international spillovers from unconventional monetary policies, and inparticular the possible spillover effects for Asian emerging economies and policies to mitigaterisks, this seminar will address the following questions.
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What will be the likely evolution of exit from UMPs?
Do the impacts of BOJ policies differ from Fed policies? What are the implication ofcoexistence of BOJ entry and Fed exit? – will they be offsetting to some extent?
What should advanced economy central banks do to minimize negative spillovers andfacilitate an orderly exit?
What is the impact of UMPs, or exit from such policies, on emerging markets?
How should emerging markets respond?
How can the IMF help emerging markets cope with any adverse effects from advanced
countries’ UMPs and in particular from their exit? What should the IMF be advising theadvanced country central banks in their conduct of UMPs in this regard?

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PROVISIONAL AGENDA
Thursday, January 23, 2014
9:00 am

Registration

9:30 amWelcome Remarks
Prof. Akira Ariyoshi, Program Director and Professor, Hitotsubashi University
Mr. Odd Per Brekk, Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OAP) , IMF

9:40 am

Opening Remarks
Mr. Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director, IMF

10:20 am

Session 1: Unconventional Monetary Policies: What, Why and Whither?
Presentation 1-1: Fed’s Tapering and Exit
This presentation will discuss Fed’s policies, focusing in particular on exit policy andhow and under what conditions it might be implemented.
Chair:
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli, Senior Economist, OAP, IMF
Presenter: Dr. Ellen E. Meade, Senior Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal
Reserve Board (FRB)
Presentation 1-2: Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative EasingThis presentation will discuss the recent policies by the BOJ, and discuss how they may
differ in design or impact from US policies.
Presenter: Mr. Michio Kitahara, Deputy Director-General, Monetary Affairs Department,Bank of Japan(N.B. Opportunities for brief factual questions for clarification will be provided aftereach presentation.)

11:20 am

Coffee Break

11:40 amComment: Dr. Eli M Remolona, Chief Representative for Asia and the Pacific, Bankfor International Settlements
Comment: Dr. Michael Spencer, Chief Economist and Head of Research for Asia andthe Pacific, Deutsche Bank
Discussion:

12:40 pm

Photo Session

12:50 pm

Lunch

2:00 pm

Session 2: Spillovers from Unconventional Policies: Emerging Market Impact andResponses
This session will examine the impact of unconventional policies on emerging markets,
focusing in particular on the impact of recent moves towards exit, and the emerging
markets’ response. The session will also ask whether policies to manage inflows during
the period of massive liquidity helped contain the problems in the reversal stage. The
session will begin with a broad overview, followed by discussion of country experiences.
Chair:
Prof. Akira Ariyoshi, Hitotsubashi University
Presentation: Ms. Ratna Sahay, Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets
Department, IMF
Comment:
Prof. Masahiko Takeda, Professor, Hitotsubashi University (tentative)
Discussion:

33:30 pm

Coffee break

3:45 pm

Session 3: Country Experiences
Chair:Mr. Odd Per Brekk, IMF
Presentations: Country Experiences and Responses
・ India: Dr. Subir Vithal Gokarn, Director of Research, Brookings India(former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India)
・ Indonesia: Dr. Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor, Bank Indonesia (BI)・ Korea: Dr. Jun Il Kim, Deputy Governor, Bank of Korea (BOK)
Each presentation to be followed by brief Q&A
Discussion:

5:15 pm

End of first day

6:30 pm

Keynote Address
Mr. Hiroshi Nakaso, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan

7:10 pm

Dinner following the Keynote Address

Friday, January 24, 2014

10: 00 am

Panel Discussion
Moderator: Prof. Masahiko Takeda, Hitotsubashi University
Panelists: Dr. Subir Vithal Gokarn, Brookings India
Dr. Jun Il Kim, BOK
Mr. Michio Kitahara, BOJ
Dr. Ellen E. Meade, FRB
Ms. Ratna Sahay, IMF
Dr. Perry Warjiyo, BI

12: 00 pm

Concluding Remarks
Prof. Akira Ariyoshi, Hitotsubashi University

12:15 pm

Lunch

2:00 pm

End of Seminar

This seminar is funded by the Government of Japan through its JSA trust fund at the IMF.
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