Japan and Russia: A Natural Partnerfor “Northern Cooperation”

Akihiro Iwashita

Questions and Answers(1) Does the Suga administration havea thoughtful approach toward
Russia? Difficult!
(2) Why not? Former premier Abe has
exhausted this approach, only with afew results.
(3) What alters the situation?
Geopolitics around Northeast Asia
must shift. Just we need to build up
the regional relations from thebottom.

RussiaJapan

South Korea

China

18,262

19,27986,964

Japan-

81,941

303,000

South Korea--280,300

Trade Volume 2017
(million dollars)Japan2,680,000Japan

41,0000.3%

South Korea

3,860,000

South Korea

97,0000.9%

Russia2,350,000

8%

China

552,000

Total

8,890,000

30%

Total

690,000

ALL

29,160,000

ALL

10,940,000

China

South Korea

People’s Flow (2017)
7,140,000

Russia77,000China

7,355,000

Total

14,572,000ALL

28,690,000

Japan

2.6%

50%

6.3%

RussiaJapan

2,311,000

China

4,169,000

Russia266,000

2%

Total

6,746,000

50%

ALL

13,335,000

South Korea

Russia’s Perception on China(2017:Radio Press)
1) What a country is the military threat?
US 40% China 1%
2) What a country is friendly to Russia?
China 60% US 2%
3) What a country is unfriendly toRussia? US 67 % China 1%
4) What a country does Russia share thecommon sense and mutualunderstanding?
China as the third place (after Belarusand Kazakhstan)Japan’s Russia Push

(1) Too Much China and Too Little
Russia (Migration & Economy)(2) Maritime Crisis for Japan(3) North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons &Missiles
However, Japan’s red lines constrain
policy: settling the “Northern Territories
issue (and concluding a peace treaty)”
is a must for reshaping relations withRussia.

Dec. 16, 2016 in Tokyo•

NO joint statement…just Press releases•
NO concrete results•
NO word on the territorialdispute@ Joint Press ConferencePutin’s Policy Reactions
1) Non-Existence of the Territorial Disputefor Russia (although an understanding ofJapan’s claims)
2) Result of WWII (Japan the Loser)
3) No Negotiation over Etorofu & Kunashiri4) 1956 Joint Declaration as the Basis for aPeace Treaty4) NO “Non-conditional Transfer” andFurther Negotiations Necessary forShikotan & Habomai (The 1956 JointDeclaration does not mention ultimateSovereignty)

Aftermath• No Hope to resolve the Northern
Territories Issue in the near
future…

Regional Initiatives
beyond borders!

Formation
TRACK I , not TRACK 1“Think Tank” Network beyond theborder
Independence (from Officials)
Interdependence (of each other)
International (beyond the region)
Initiative (in action)
Innovation (in policy making)Structural Image
Policy Makers↑
Local↓
Private Stake
Regional →Consortium←
holders
Administrations
Think Tanks(RFE/North↑
Universities
China etc.)↓etc.
Grass RootsAs an Integral Part of Eurasia

Sea Zone ofNortheast Asia

RangeArctic｜｜
Central Eurasiaー NA ーAPR
(Mongolia / CA)｜ (US / Canada )Afghan / Pak /｜India )ASEAN

Targets: 3G
Featuring Vladivostok• For Russia: APR Center (APEC)• For China: North Port to Pacific/Arctic• For Japan : Port to Siberia• For South Korea: linchpin for theKorea Rim• For North Korea: Access from/to theWorld• For the US: North & West Pacific
Alignment

Issues/ Items• Energy Regime• Transportation Regime• Security Balance Gravity(China-US + Russia-Japan +Koreas)• Sea & Land Ecology on North
Eurasia (Amur + Okhotsk)
Others….

Local Initiatives
beyond Borders!

Wakkanai & Sakhalin

From Wakkanai toSakhalin via Ferry