Progress in energy and climate
policies around the world —What does it mean for the 2015
international climate agreement?
ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Content> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations andpledges> Progress in implementing energy andclimate policies> Cooperative initiatives> Implications for the 2015 agreement

2© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Selected achievements of the UNFCCC process

Emission reductions• Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C• Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020
• Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participationFinancing• From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020)• Green Climate Fund as new financing channel• New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+)
Reporting• Biennial reporting of emissions and policies

3© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

The emissions gap

www.climateactiontracker.org
4© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Content> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations andpledges> Progress in implementing energy
and climate policies> Cooperative initiatives> Implications for the 2015 agreement

5© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

EU> Unconditional 20% (conditional 30%) below 1990 in 2020
> New proposal for 2030: 40% below 1990
> Comprehensive policy package: emissions trading, support for renewables,efficiency standards, …

6© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

USA> Pledge: 17% below 2005 in 2020
> New climate plan: if implemented sufficient to meet pledge> Policies: Car standards, power plant standards, state level renewablesupport, …

7© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

China> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-fossil fuels of15% by 2020, forest cover> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, lowcarbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars andtrucks, regional ban of new coal-fired power plants, …

8© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

National climate policy

Countries
responsible for 67%
of global emissions
have national
climate legislation orstrategy
Source:Dubash et al. 2013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1
080/14693062.2013.
8454099© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Global coverage of energy and climate policies
Changing
activity
GeneralElectricity

Industry

Buildings

Transport

AFOLU

Stategies
6%

Programs
8%

Modal shiftprograms
14%

Energyefficiency

Renewable
Low carbon
energyStrategies + targets 70%Carbon pricing schemes 28%
Performance
Support schemes
Tax exemptions
Standards(e.g. feed-in)
6%
22%
49%
Carbon pricing schemes 30%
Voluntary
Quota
agreements
…%
36%
25%
Energy taxes …%
Productstandards &Tax exemptions…%
building codes
31%
55%
Fuel taxes …%
VehicleDirect subsidies &E-mobility
standards
fuel quota
programs
23%
50%
14%

Strategies
28%

Source: Ecofys, unpublished draft
10© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Other / nonenergyRegulatory…%

Regulation /planning39%

Pledges and recent trendsSource: Climate Action Tracker trends report
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/publications/CAT_Trend_Report.pdf
11© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Content> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations andpledges> Progress in implementing energy andclimate policies> Cooperative initiatives> Implications for the 2015 agreement

12© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Simple view

Complex view

UNFCCC
climate treaty

National government
actionSource: Draftof IPCC FifthAssessment Report
13© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

14545256462010
2015

Included in low ambition pledge
Included only in high ambition pledge
Additional to pledges

Ambitious end ofnational reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e5250

50

48
48

2°C pathway
4644442020

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap,
Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

2° C range

Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a)

Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

Top-1000 companies emission reduction
Supply chain emission reductions
Green financial institutions
Voluntary offset companies
Voluntary offset consumers
Major cities initiative
Sub-national governments
Building heating and cooling
Ban of incandescent lamps
Electric appliances
Cars & trucks emission reduction
Boost solar photovoltaic energy
Boost wind energy
Access to energy through low-emission options
Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels
International aviation and maritime transport
Fluorinated gases initiative
Reduce deforestationAgriculture
Short lived climate forcers
Efficient cookstoves

Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a)

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global
action on climate change
5654

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global
action on climate change
Companies’ emissions

Energy efficiency

Special sectors

Top-1000 companies
emission reduction

Buildings heating andcoolingIntl. aviation andmaritime transport

Supply chain emission
reductions

Ban of incandescent
lamps

Fluorinated gases
initiative

Green financial
institutions

Electric appliances

Reduce deforestation

Voluntary offset
companies

Cars and trucksemission reductions

Agriculture

Other actors

Energy supply

Voluntary offsets
consumers

Boost solar
photovoltaic energy

Major cities initiative

Boost wind energy

Sub-nationalgovernments

Access energy throughlow emission options
Phasing out subsidies
for fossil fuels

15© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Methane and other air
pollutants
Methane and other air
pollutants
Efficient cook stoves
Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap,
Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.htmlCooperative initiatives> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It isalready covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency
is needed.

> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction
potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear
commitments in this area is limited.

> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several
sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production hasreceived particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several
specific initiatives and one that is overarching.

> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020.
Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency isneeded.
Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/16© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Content> Status of the UNFCCC negotiations andpledges> Progress in implementing energy andclimate policies> Cooperative initiatives> Implications for the 2015
agreement

17© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Implications for the 2015 agreement> Enable strong pledges: Self-determined pledges alone unlikely to be
sufficient for 2°C> Incentivise national policies to implement and overachieve pledges> Support cooperative initiatives: help actors other than national
governments to intensify their efforts

18© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Experience from the past on mitigation commitments> Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individualprojects)> Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified> 2°C: Some pledges are influenced ranges needed for 2°C– Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU, Japan -25%, …
> National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions– EU, USA, …
> Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change– No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap iswidely accepted– Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances ormore information) do not change it19© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement
Possible Elements of a 2015 LegalAgreement on Climate Change
Erik Haites; Farhana Yamin; Niklas Höhne
Working Papers N°16/2013. Iddri, 2013. 24 p.

Ambition
Nationally proposed 2020-23
commitments
Joint goal of all Parties to phaseout anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions by 2050-- Based on self-selected equity
principle-See also: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-outby mid-century, http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf
20© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Consistent with the phase-out
goalTechnical review

Feasibility of a global GHG phase out goal
Source: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century,
http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf

Source: Höhne et al. 2013, Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century,
http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-feasibility-ghg-phase-out-2050.pdf21© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Implications for the 2015 agreement> Enable strong pledges: Self-determined pledges alone unlikely to be
sufficient for 2°C– Strong global goal, e.g. phase out of GHG emissions by 2050
– Regular technical and equity review of pledges and commitments– Accept offers as floor of ambition and increase ambition afterwards> Incentivise national policies to implement and overachieve pledges> Support cooperative initiatives: help actors other than nationalgovernments to intensify their efforts

22© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Development of a best practice policy menu

Source: Ecofys, Towards a policy menu to increase greenhouse gas reduction ambition, draft
23© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Implications for the 2015 agreement> Enable strong pledges: Self-determined pledges alone unlikely to be sufficientfor 2°C– Strong global goal, e.g. phase out of GHG emissions by 2050
– Regular technical and equity review of pledges and commitments– Accept offers as floor of ambition and increase ambition afterwards> Incentivise national policies to implement and overachieve pledges: Discussand disseminate– Lessons learned with national policy making– Benefits and costs– Best practice policies– A policy menu

> Support cooperative initiatives: help actors other than national governments
to intensify their efforts by– Recognition– Comprehensive inventory and assessment of their impact– Possibly common rules for target setting and accounting

24© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Dr. Niklas Höhne
Am Wassermann 3650829 Cologne

Germany

T: +49 (0)221 27070-101
E: n.hoehne@ecofys.com
I: www.ecofys.com

25© ECOFYS | 04/02/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com