LÄNDERBERICHT
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.
REGIONALPROGRAMM
POLITIKDIALOG ASIENCOLIN DÜRKOP
AXEL BERKOFSKY
22. Oktober 2008
www.kas.de/japan

Japan’s Security and Defence Policies: Issues, Trends and Prospects

www.kas.de
Is Japan planning to turn into a regional

mation on the fate of those Japanese citi-

military hegemon prepared to defend its

zens who were not allowed to return after

regional interests with military force if

decades in North Korean captivity. Pyongy-‘necessary’ as it was feared amongst a

ang for its part will continue to ignore theseminority of analysts and observers ofrequests insisting that the issue has been

Asian security in recent years?

settled once and for all with an official North
Korean apology during the Koizumi-Kim

The answer is fairly simple and much lesssummit in Pyongyang in 2002.

spectacular than a few alarmists – many ofwhom may be found amongst Chinese

Shooting Down Missiles

scholars and policy-makers – have argued.
Japan is as far away as ever from turning

At present, and with increased intensity,

into a regional military bully and its defence

Japan is preparing to defend itself betterand security policies will remain exclusively

against an – admittedly, very unlikely –defence-oriented and decisively nonaggres-North Korean missile attack by jointly work-

sive. In fact, there is very little impetus foring with the U.S. on the development andan alteration to current Japanese regional

deployment of a regional missile defence

policy – its ties with China have been good,system. Tokyo and Washington have started

defence spending is capped, and, there is

working on developing a missile defence

little chance of an alteration to its militarilysystem since North Korea launched a mis-

restrictive constitution.

sile over northern Japan in 1998.

The Trouble with North Korea

Currently, hundreds of North Korean missiles are reportedly aimed at Japan (andWith regard to Japan’s relationship with

South Korea for that matter) and it is esti-

North Korea, the two countries remain asmated that Pyongyang’s Taepodong missiles

far away as ever from anything resembling

have only a 7-8 minute flight-time to down-

the normalization of bilateral relations. This

town Tokyo.

lack of détente is largely due to two key issues: (1) the ‘abduction issue’ (as it is re-

Although the Japanese government has por-ferred to in Japan); and (2) North Korea’s

trayed the North Korean missile develop-

nuclear programme.

ment as a threat, it is possible to argue that
this assessment may be exaggerated. North

During the 1970s and 1980s, North Korean

Korean missile tests of recent years havesecret service agents abducted up to 100

had a high failure rate – leaving many toJapanese citizens to, among other reasons,doubt whether Pyongyang’s missiles do, in‘employ’ them as language ‘instructors’ that

fact, constitute a real threat in the first pla-

would teach the Japanese language to theirce.

own secret service agents. While Pyongyang
freed some of the abducted citizens a few

Either way, for years the U.S. has urged Ja-

years ago, Tokyo insists on obtaining infor-

pan to increase its contributions to the2

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

costly development of a regional missile de-trade amounted to more than $230 billion infence system. After dragging its feet and2007.

REGIONALPROGRAMM

maintaining that it was, above all, inter-

POLITIKDIALOG ASIEN

ested in the research phase and not neces-

Before becoming Prime Minister, Taro Aso

COLIN DÜRKOP

sarily in the development phase of the pro-repeatedly expressed concern in public over

AXEL BERKOFSKY

ject, Tokyo in 2007 officially committed it-

China’s rising defence budget. However, af-

self to financially contribute to the develop-

ter taking office a few weeks ago, he seems

22. Oktober 2008

ment phase of the system.

to be prepared to continue implementing a

www.kas.de/japan

In December 2007, a Japanese warship sta-soaring trade relations and business ties.

www.kas.detioned off Hawaii launched a U.S.-developed

Moreover, Mr. Aso has not yet ‘threatened’

Standard-3 interceptor missile and success-to visit the controversial Tokyobased Shin-fully destroyed a mock target fired from on-

toist Yasukuni Shrine, the last resting place

shore. Success here marked the long-to a number of convicted Japanese A-classawaited progress of the development of thewar criminals from World War II. Instead,system. Land-based Patriot Advanced Ca-

Mr. Aso will reportedly meet with Chinese

pability 3 (PAC-3) missile defence systems

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao

have already been installed at two bases inwhen attending the Asia-Europe Meeting

Japan and further installations are planned(ASEM) in Beijing on October 24 and 25

in the years ahead. Further tests are ex-and, judging by official Japanese-Sino meet-

pected to follow in the coming months. Ul-

ings in 2007 and 2008, it is likely that po-

timately, Japan plans to install missile inter-tentially controversial issues, such as Yasu-

ceptor systems on four of its destroyers

kuni and territorial disputes, will not feature

equipped with the state of the art Aegis

too prominently (if at all) on the agenda oftracking system.

the upcoming Japanese-Chinese encounter.

While China considers the system to be

Sino-Japanese disputes over territories in

aimed at diminishing China’s missile deter-

the East China Sea are very likely to remain

rence capabilities, U.S. and Japanese poli-unresolved for some time to come. How-cymakers maintain that the system will be

ever, recently Tokyo and Beijing showed

deployed to protect Japanese territory along

willingness to seek a mutually beneficial so-with US soldiers stationed in Japan fromlution, including the joint exploration of

North Korean rogue missiles.

natural gas and oil around the waters Japan

Worried about China?

‘Diaoyu Islands.’

As in previous years, Japan’s Ministry of De-

The U.S.-Japan Security Alliancepragmatic policy towards China in view ofrefers to as ‘Senkaku Islands’ and China as

fence has once more referred to China as a“potential military threat” in the latest edi-

Japan is hosting 53,000 U.S. troops ontion of its White Book on defence.

Japanese soil and Tokyo’s regional security
strategies will continue to be defined andHowever, Japan publishing its worries about

limited by its defence ties with the U.S.

the rapid modernization of China’s armed

Ironically, this will continue to both worry

forces has by now become a yearly exercise

and appease Japan’s neighbours.

with realistically very little relevance for Japan’s China policies. Japan will not boost up

On the one hand, they will worry as Tokyo

its military capabilities because the Chineseremains as vulnerable as ever to U.S. pres-economy that funds its defence spending issure (referred to in Japanese as gaiatsu) toexperiencing double-digit growth rates

support and assist the implementation of

every year. China remains an important in-

U.S. security policies in East Asia. On thevestment destination for Japanese busi-

other hand, Japan’s neighbours will also be

nesses (roughly 10.000 Japanese compa-

appeased as (above all from a Chinese per-nies operate in China employing more thanspective) continued U.S. military presence

10 million Chinese workers) and bilateralon Japanese soil will continue to be under-

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stood as a guarantee that Tokyo does not

The bill was adopted regardless and in theengage itself in any ‘go-it-alone’ defence

Cabinet’s last working session in mid-

REGIONALPROGRAMM

and security policies which could potentially

September, then outgoing Prime Minister

POLITIKDIALOG ASIEN

be perceived as threatening by its neigh-Yasuo Fukuda’s Cabinet approved the bill.

COLIN DÜRKOP

bours.

The bill commits Japan to contribute to the

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

U.S.-led fight against terrorism in Afghani-

AXEL BERKOFSKY

Fears of Japanese regional security policy

stan for another year beyond the 15 Janu-shifting from defensive to offensive shouldary 2009 deadline. Nevertheless, securing

the U.S. one day withdraw its troops from

yet another extension of the law throughwww.kas.de/japan

Japan appear unfounded. Though Japan is aparliament is likely to be as difficult andwww.kas.deregional military power, it does not exhibit

time-consuming as it was in January 2008.

22. Oktober 2008

expansionist ambitions in Asia and, unlike
others in Asia (above all China which in

Leaving the Middle East

2008 announced a further 17% rise of its
defence spending) Japan has reduced its

Authorized by the 2003 “Special Measuresdefence budget over recent years. Further-Law on Humanitarian Assistance and Recon-

more, unlike other major powers (above all

struction of Iraq”, the Japanese Air Self-

again China but also, of course, the U.S.),

Defence Forces (ASDF) and Ground Self-

Japan has limited its defence spending toDefence Forces (GSDF) were dispatched to

1% of its GDP. Given Japan’s enormous

the Middle East in support of the U.S.-led

GDP this nevertheless translates into an an-

coalition forces in January 2004.

nual Japanese defence budget of $42 billion
as compared to roughly $59 billion China

While the roughly 1000 ground forces left

spent on defence in 2008.

southern Iraq in July 2006, the ASDF has
remained stationed in Kuwait transporting

Operating in the Indian Ocean and the

supplies and members of the militaries ofMiddle Eastother nations as well as those of the United
Nations between Kuwait and Iraq. The

Authorised by the 2001 “Anti-Terrorism

ground forces’ mission in southern Iraq has

Special Measures Law”, the Japanese navy

consisted of the provision of medical andhas been refuelling Coalition vessels en-

humanitarian aid for the Iraqi population as

gaged in the war in Afghanistan since No-

well as the reconstruction of infrastructure,vember 2001. The law was extended sev-

roads, and hospitals.

eral times over recent years, the last timein January 2008 when then-Prime Minister

Although the mission has been considered

Yasuo Fukuda had to use the ruling Liberal-

to be successful, it was not free from prob-

Democratic Party’s (LDP) party’s two-thirdlems and controversy – largely due to con-majority in the Lower House to override thestitutional restraints imposed on Japanese

opposition’s Upper House veto in a time-

military troops operating in Iraq. Constitu-

consuming and controversial law-making

tional restraints meant that the Japaneseprocess.

mission was to be strictly of a noncombat
nature and engagement limits were definedThis move by Mr Fukuda was considered

strictly for individual self-defence – as op-

controversial as it was the first time in post-

posed to defending each other or the mili-

war Japan that the ruling LDP had to use atary personnel of other countries. As such,

two-third majority in the Lower House toother Coalition forces were tasked with pro-override a veto in the Upper House. The

tecting Japanese troops and their base.

Japanese Constitution stipulates that thispractice is reserved for “national emergen-

Earlier this September, the Japanese gov-cies” and the political opposition (as well as

ernment announced the termination ofJapan’s liberal and left-leaning media) con-

ASDF transport operations between Kuwait

tested the argument that the continuationby the end of the year following a recentof the Japanese mission in the Indian Ocean

request by the Iraqi government for a re-constituted a “national emergency”.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

duction in the presence of foreign militaryEnter Taro Aso

forces.
Newly-elected Prime Minister Taro Aso is in

REGIONALPROGRAMM
POLITIKDIALOG ASIEN

Not Revising the ’Peace Constitution’

AXEL BERKOFSKY
22. Oktober 2008
www.kas.de/japan

favour of changing the government’s interpretation of the pacifist Constitution to allow

COLIN DÜRKOP

The current status quo whereby Japan

Japan’s armed forces to exercise the rightmaintains armed forces although legallyto collective self-defence as formulated in(through Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution) it

Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Under theis not permitted to do so in the first place, iscurrent interpretation, Japan acknowledges

very likely to continue.

the right to collective self-defence, that is,the de facto right to participate in interna-

www.kas.deIndeed, a constitutional revision – which

tional military operations, but sees itself in-has been called for by Japan’s conservative

capable of executing it in view of Article 9 ofand ultra-conservative politicians and edito-

Japan’s constitution.

rial writers for more than a decade – isunlikely to happen any time soon. A two-

The issue of collective self-defence has been

third majority in both chambers of the

discussed in Japan for years but it is realis-

Japanese parliament is required to changetically very unlikely that Aso and likeminded

the constitution and such a majority is real-

LDP lawmakers will be able to change theistically a near impossibility given the cur-current official interpretation any time soon.

rent political environment in Japan.

Not even former Prime Minister Koizumi,
whose tenure as head of government from

This unlikely two-third majority in both2001-2006 was accompanied by solid LDP

chambers of parliament would then have tomajorities in both chambers of the Japanese

be supported by the electorate in a referen-parliament, was able to revise the official

dum. Though Japanese voters have increas-interpretation. Instead, he was confronted

ingly leaned towards a constitutional revi-with strong resistance from the opposition

sion per se, survey data has shown that theas well as from members of his own party

majority of the public would not vote for thethroughout his entire tenure.

abolition of Article 9 of the Constitution.
Although Aso has articulated that his govConsequently, the revision of Article 9 willernment will seek to adopt a permanent law

continue to remain a moot issue in theauthorizing the deployment of Japan’s Self

years ahead.

Defence Forces without seeking parliamentary approval for each mission, this is much…and Not Going Nuclear Either

easier said than done. The Democratic Partyof Japan’s (DPJ) solid majority in the Upper

An equally moot point (and equally vividly

House ensures that the adoption of such a

discussed, especially when North Korea

law can be delayed or blocked.

conducted what was back then to be believed its first nuclear test in October 2006)

Conclusion

is the possibility of Japan developing anddeploying nuclear weapons.

The scope for substantial changes of Japan’s
regional and global security policy agenda

Undoubtedly, Japan would be able to go nu-

remains very limited. Even if Prime Minister

clear within a very short period of time. Re-

Taro Aso might become tempted to add as-alistically, however, there are no indications

sertiveness and outspokenness to Japanesethat Japan is considering the possibility offoreign and security policy debates in theequipping itself with nuclear weapons sincemonths ahead, Japan’s actual security will

it enjoys a U.S. nuclear umbrella instead.

not change in substance.
Tokyo’s involvement in developing a regional missile defence system with the U.S.
will not turn Japan’s defence and security

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

policies from defensive to offensive although Tokyo and the U.S. will nonetheless

REGIONALPROGRAMM

continue to be confronted with this criti-

POLITIKDIALOG ASIEN

cism. Such a system is, as described, a de-

COLIN DÜRKOP

fensive system that is at best capable of

AXEL BERKOFSKY

rendering other countries’ ballistic missile
arsenals ineffective and (from their view-

22. Oktober 2008

point) obsolete at worst.

www.kas.de/japan

Japanese contributions to international mili-www.kas.detary missions will continue to be limited tostrictly non-combat missions and the absence of a permanent law in place authorizing the deployment of Japanese military tointernational missions will make sure thatJapan’s participation in international peacekeeping or peace-enforcement missions willremain the exception rather than the rule.
What’s more, in the months ahead, defence
and security policy issues are unlikely tomake it to the top of Japan’s policy agenda,
not least because of domestic economic andpolitical issues and problems, including theprospect of Japanese general elections by
the end of this year.
The current financial crisis and the threat of
economic recession in Japan, too, will dotheir bit to put defence and military issues
in Japan onto the backburner, at least for
the time being.
(by Dr. Axel Berkofsky, Adjunct Professor,
University of Milan, Italy)