IPCC AR6 Seminar

1.5 Celsius Goals: Challenges Ahead

19 May 2022
Jun ARIMA
Project Professor, GraSPP U-Tokyo11

“Greenness” of COVID-19 Recovery Package

Source: Vivideconomics

Vision vs Reality in Recovery from COVID-19

Source: IEA

Strong Momentum in 2021
◼ Biden Administration and Climate Action Summit◼ G7 and G20 with strong focus on climate change◼ Glasgow Climate Pact
◆ Resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree
Celsius◆ Require rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions,
including reducing global CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 below 2010 andnet zero around mid-century◆ Establish a work program to urgently scale-up mitigation ambition andimplementation during the critical decade of the 2020s◆ Phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuelsubsidiesVarious “Gap”s◼ Gap between 1.5 pathway and NDC pathway-- Ambition gap-- Policy gap-- Finance gap◼ Gap between “COP world” and “real world”◆ Gap among various countries’ priority among SDGs
◆ Gap between model analysis (e.g. global uniform carbon
price, global policy coordination) and actual politicaleconomy (e.g. patchy actions across countries)◆ Gap between statement and action (willingness to pay)Implication of 45% Cut by 2030

Source: IEA Global Energy Review 2021

Energy, Grains and Metals Price Hike in Ukraine War

Source: IMF

Huge Gap between G7 and Non-OECD G20
Countries on Priorities among 17 SDGs

Points (17-1) are given to each SDG based on its priority order (1st -17th) ineach country based on the voting outcome in UN My World 2030 Survey

High Willingness to Pay in Developed Countries?

US Voters’ View on Gas Prices and Climate Change(National telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and theHeartland Institute on 28 April and 2 May 2022)• 82% of Likely U.S. Voters are concerned about rising energy
and gasoline prices, including 60% who are Very Concerned.
Only 14% aren’t concerned about the rising price of energy.

• 60% favor a law that would dramatically increase oil and gas
drilling in the United States, including 47% who would
Strongly Favor such a law. 30% would oppose a law toincrease drilling, while 11% are not sure.
• 52% of voters believe Congress and President Joe Biden
should focus more on increasing oil and gas drilling to help
reduce energy prices, but 34% think the policy focus should
be more on limiting carbon dioxide emissions in an attempt
to reduce climate change.

◼ Global mitigation efforts are facing challenges by COVID-19 in
2020-2021 and by Ukraine War now.
◼ Various “gaps” are emerging◼ “Divided world” after Ukraine war is not conducive to global
cooperation (e.g., financial flow to developing countries)➔ Will Ukraine war accelerate or delay clean energy transition? Amid
simultaneous risk of resources price hikes and economic
slowdown, how to maintain momentum for clean energy
transition?
➔ On-going energy crisis necessitates fossil fuel investment.
However, new investment could be discouraged by “strandedassets” narratives. How to overcome dilemma between short-term
energy security and long-term decarbonization?
➔ How to boost technology development and deployment of clean
energy technologies and their dissemination to developing
countries with continuously high dependence on fossil fuels?
➔ What are the role of industry and financial sectors in the above
endeavor?