Center for Global Sustainability
Analytics for Ambition | Collective Action

The Implications of City, State, andBusiness Climate Leadership in theUnited States
Leon Clarke
February 13, 2020

Limiting temperature change to 2C or 1.5C
requires rapid emissions reductions
1.5°C Pathways: Carbon
neutrality around 2050

2.0°C Pathways: Carbon
neutrality around 2070

Source: IPCC, 2018

The Paris Agreement produced an internationalframework focused on country commitments

Cities, regions, and businesses are engaged inclimate mitigation(Source: NewClimate Institute et al., 2019)

Cities, regions, and businesses are engaged inclimate mitigation(Source: NewClimate Institute et al., 2019)

The U.S. NDC targeted 26-28% reductions by 2025

Source: U.S. Biennial Report (2016)

The U.S. Mid-Century Strategy targeted 80% ormore reductions by 2050

Source: U.S. Mid-Century Strategy (2016)

Today the United States began theprocess to withdraw from the Paris
Agreement. Per the terms of theAgreement, the United States
submitted formal notification of its
withdrawal to the United
Nations. The withdrawal will takeeffect one year from delivery of thenotification.

U.S. coalitions would be the world’s second largest
economy—second only to the entire United States itself

United States Climate Alliance States

The United States Climate
Alliance is a bipartisan
coalition of 24 governors
committed to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions
consistent with the goals ofthe Paris Agreement.

http://www.usclimatealliance.org/

Example Coalitions
Broad-Based Coalition of All Actor Types

Initiative to Aggregate, Analyze, And Showcase Climate
Leadership by States, Cities and Businesses

Coalition of State Governors

Coalition of City Mayors

Coalition of BusinessesIn 2019 states that have enacted 100% clean electricity goals intolegislation account for 16% of the U.S. electricity demand.
If executive
orders andgovernor’s
proposals
supporting 100%
clean electricity
in other states
are all enacted
into law, thesegoals will reach
27% of theelectricity
demand.

In 2019, 133 American cities had 100% clean energy orclean electricity targets, with a population of 19 million.

Accelerating America’s Pledge assesses opportunities forU.S. reductions in 2030
1. Current Measures Scenario – highlighting that progress isalready underway based on the projected impact ofcommitments “on the books”
2. Bottom-up Scenario - What happens when successful state, local,and business policies and actions are applied broadly?
• Tier 1: First-movers – adopt most ambitious policies on the books• Tier 2: Fast-followers – adopt moderately ambitious policies• Tier 3: Slow-followers – little or no action

3. All-in Scenario - What happens when ambitious new federal policies
are layered on Bottom-up scenario?

Three Principles of Climate Action

The Bottom-Up Scenario: 2030 Strategy Platform
Accelerate toward 100%
Clean Electricity

Decarbonize Buildings,Transportation & Industry

Enhance Ecosystem
Carbon StorageLeading States:• 60% renewable electricity• No more coal plants• Peak and then reduce relianceon gas• Reduced methane emissions

Leading States:• New buildings 100% electric• Appliances replaced by electric at end-oflife• 2% EE improvement annually

Leading States incentivize
low-cost natural climate
solutions, such as:

Fast Follower States incorporate
more modest renewable standard
and slow gas builds
Market trends and advocacy
constrain coal and gas across thecountry, including in remainingstates• EVs = 2/3 new car sales• ICE performance increased 4% annually• Energy management, electrification, CCUS
in industry• HFCs phased down per Kigali Amendment
Fast Follower States go roughly half as far.
Remaining states make little progress.

• Natural forestmanagement• Optimal nutrient
application• Use of cover crops
Land carbon sink improved
11% compared to today

Reductions are distributed across three Principles

Electricity generation
moves to clean sources.
Compared to 17% today,• Bottom-up:
39% Renewable by 2030
• All-In Scenario:
48% Renewable by 2030
• Coal generation in 2030 isa fraction of what it istodayClean Energy Buildout through 2030

Incremental health benefits from reductions in fossil fuelgeneration under the All-In scenario reach $26-58 billion

The Dawn of a New American Economy: The Opportunityfor 2030
A well-designed and well-executed comprehensive All-In climate
strategy could deliver a dramatic economic renewal compared to ahigh-carbon future by 2030, leading to a fundamental
transformation of the U.S. economy by 2050. Communities acrossAmerica would experience broad-based benefits built on U.S.
leadership in new global industries and supply chains; opportunitiesfor high-skill careers; improved human health; more vibrant farms,forests, and open spaces; and greater resilience to climate impacts.
Federal, state, and local agencies would work collaboratively
toward a transition away from fossil fuel extraction and use that
also takes into account the adverse impacts to workers, households,
and state and municipal finances of such a shift. The payoff would
be the creation of more economically diverse, inclusive, andequitable local economies across the country.

Coordination is important with more actors
engaged in climate mitigation

Measurement becomes more challenging withmore actors in climate mitigation“We make recommendations regarding fivemain areas of research and methodologicaldevelopment related to evaluating non-stateand subnational climate actions:• defining clear boundaries and terminology;• use of common methodologies to aggregate
and assess non-state and subnationalcontributions;• systematically dealing with issues of overlap;• estimating the likelihood of implementation;• addressing data gaps.”
Source: Hsu et al., (2019)

The Potential of a Multi-Actor Approach to ClimateMitigation

Center for Global Sustainability
Analytics for Ambition | Collective Action

Thank YouCitations• The America’s Pledge Initiative on Climate Change (2019) “Accelerating America’s Pledge: Going All-In to Build a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Economy forthe United States.” By N. Hultman, C. Frisch, L. Clarke, K. Kennedy, P. Bodnar, P. Hansel, T. Cyrs, M. Manion, M. Edwards, J. Lund, C. Bowman, J. Jaeger,
R. Cui, A. Clapper, A. Sen, D. Saha, M. Westphal, W. Jaglom, J.C. Altamirano, H. Hashimoto, M. Dennis, K. Hammoud, C. Henderson, G. Zwicker, M, Ryan,J. O’Neill, E. Goldfield. Published by Bloomberg Philanthropies with University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability, Rocky Mountain Institute,and World Resources Institute. New York. Available at: americaspledge.com/reports• NewClimate Institute, Data-Driven Lab, PBL, German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Blavatnik School ofGovernment, University of Oxford. Global climate action from cities, regions and businesses: Impact of individual actors and cooperative initiatives on
global and national emissions. 2019 edition. Research report prepared by the team of: Takeshi Kuramochi, Swithin Lui, Niklas Höhne, Sybrig Smit,
Maria Jose de Villafranca Casas, Frederic Hans, Leonardo Nascimento, Paola Tanguy, Angel Hsu, Amy Weinfurter, Zhi Yi Yeo, Yunsoo Kim, MiaRaghavan, Claire Inciong Krummenacher, Yihao Xie, Mark Roelfsema, Sander Chan, Thomas Hale.
• US Mid-Century Strategy, 2019
• IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climatechange, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A.
Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T.
Waterfield (eds.)].
• Second Biennial Report of the United States of America under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2016)• Hsu, A., Weinfurter, A.J. and Xu, K., 2017. Aligning subnational climate actions for the new post-Paris climate regime. Climatic Change, 142(3-4),
pp.419-432.
• Hsu, A., Höhne, N., Kuramochi, T., Roelfsema, M., Weinfurter, A., Xie, Y., Lütkehermöller, K., Chan, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Drost, P. and Faria, P., 2019. A
research roadmap for quantifying non-state and subnational climate mitigation action. Nature Climate Change, 9(1), pp.11-17.