Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental
Energy Transformation
Perspectives from the Global Energy Assessment
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
naki@iiasa.ac.at

ALPS International Symposium on “The frontiers of scenarios for climatechange research and assessment”, Nadao Hall, Tokyo – 9 February 2011

The Global Energy Assessment
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
and its international partners present the

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org#2

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Towards a more Sustainable Future● Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs andLAs and >200 Anonymous Reviewers● Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors iscomplete - ongoing responses and revisions.
● Final report (Cambridge Univ. Press) in June
2011 followed by vigorous dissemination

3#3

Integration of Knowledge Clusters● Cluster I characterizes nature and magnitude ofchallenges, and express them in selectedindicators● Cluster II reviews existing and future resource
and technology options● Cluster III integrates Cluster II elements into
systems, and links these to indicators fromCluster I● Cluster IV assesses policy options, andspecifically identifies policy packages that arelinked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in
an iterative fashion.
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Sponsoring Organizations
International Organizations

Governments/Agencies

GEF
IIASA
UNDESA
UNDP
UNEP
UNIDO
ESMAP (World Bank)

Austria - multi-year
European Union
Germany
Italy
NorwaySweden - multi-year
USA (EPA, DoE)

Industry groups

FoundationsFirst Solar
Petrobras
WBCSD
WEC

UN Foundation
Climate Works Foundation
Global Environment & TechnologyFoundation#5

Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigatingclimate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D andrapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are neededand would result in multiple co-benefits#6

Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Nakicenovic

Source: Menzel, 2005

#7

2010

Food for a Week, Germany© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Nakicenovic

Source: Menzel, 2005

#82010Mapping Energy Access
Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

Billions of people:
Abject poverty: 1.3Poor: 0.6
Less poor: 1.4
Middle class: 1.6
Rich: 1.2

Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

3.3
2.8
#9

Health Benefits of Pollution Control(loss of stat. life expectancy - PM)

Source: Dentener et al, 2009#10

Earth is Warming
Data: NASA 1880-2010

Global warming predicted(Sawyer, Nature 1972,Broecker, Science 1975)#11IPCC AR4 SRES A1B

Source: Realclimate 2010#12

Global Carbon Emissions#13

Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigatingclimate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D andrapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits#14

Global Carbon Reservoirs
Atmosphere
850 GtC

Biomass~500 GtC

Unconventional.
Gas~1000 GtC

Oil
N.
N. Gas
Gas
GtC~250 GtgC~250GtC~250 GtC ~250

UnconventonalOil~1150 GtgC

Soils
~1,500 GtC

Coal~ 12,000 GtC
Unconventional Hydrocarbons
15,000 to 40,000 GtC

14

Estimated shale gas resource

14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ#16

#17#18

Global Primary Energy
1000900

Primary Energy (EJ)

800
700600

Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass

Microchip

Commercial
energyRenewables

500
Television
Vacuum400300

Gas
Electric

engineengineOil

200
10001850

Nuclear

Coal
Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#19

Global Primary Energy
1000900

Primary Energy (EJ)

800
700600

Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass

Microchip

Commercial
energyRenewables

500
Television
Vacuum400300

Gas
Electricengine

engineOil

200
10001850

NuclearCoalBiomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#20

01950
1975
2000
2025
2050

WBGUWEC-C1[r]evolution

POLES

ETP BLUE

MERGE-ETL

REMINS-ADAM

REMINS-RECIPE

RCP 3-PDGEA-Supply

GEA Efficiency
GEA -MixEJ Primary Energy

Global Primary Energy

800

700

600

500

400300
Other renewables
HydroNuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass

200

100

#21

Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigatingclimate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D andrapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are neededand would result in multiple co-benefits#22

Example of savings by reconstruction
Before reconstruction

over 150 kWh/(m²a)

Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle-90%

15 kWh/(m²a)

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006#23

Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes

Source: WBCSD, 2005

#24

Energy SuperGrid and MagLev

Source: EPRI
#25

Potential Synergies between New Energy andTransport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”
Super Cables
Power lines

Electric Power Research institute ©

MAGLEV

Source:Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigatingclimate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D andrapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits#27

Co-Benefits of Energy Investments#28

Co-Benefits of Energy Investments#29

Trade-Offs & Co-Benefits● With GEA Scenarios: Explore implications ofglobal climate mitigation for local energy
security concerns and air pollution control Explore development of security indicators in2oC climate scenarios Assess potential economic co-benefits ofdifferent combinations of security and climatepolicies
 Multi-Criteria Analysis to understand policy
interactions (security/pollution/climate)#30

Joint Modeling Framework
NAM
PAOOECD

WEU
EEU

REFS

FSU
MEA
AFR

ALM

LAM
SASPAS

ASIA

CPA

Source: IIASA
9 SAS South Asia
1 NAM North America
5 FSU Former Soviet Union
Source:10 PAS Other PacificAsia
2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa
11 PAO Pacific OECD
3 WEU Western Europe7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa
4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China

Systems engineering
global energy model(MESSAGE)

Source: IIASAO’Neill, B.C., K. Riahi, and I. Keppo , 2010 (PNAS)

Global climate modelMulti-criteria analysis
tool(MAGICC)(MCAA)Create wide range of scenarios:
Different stringency for regional energy import constraints
Different levels of climate mitigation
Different stringency of pollution control#31

Energy Transformations
depend on the ranking of policy priorities
Worst

Environment

EnergySecurity

EconomyMore preferable, butmore difficultBest

Mid-term GHG/pollutant
emissions levels (2050)

+80%

-80%

Long-term climate target(prob. of 2 ºC warming)

0%

100%

Pollution and healthimpacts (years of life lost)

HighLow

Regional energy trade(share of PE)

100%

0%

Diversity of trade (index)

Low

High

Total energy system cost

X trill

Y trill#32

naki@iiasa.ac.at
www.IIASA.ac.at
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis#33