Global Energy Perspectives
Efficiency and Decarbonization Revolution

Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
naki@iiasa.ac.at
ALPS International Symposium on:"Addressing Climate Change Harmonized with Sustainable Development"
RITE, Tokyo, Japan – 7 February, 2012

Global Energy Transformation
Efficiency and Decarbonization Revolution

Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
naki@iiasa.ac.at
ALPS International Symposium on:"Addressing Climate Change Harmonized with Sustainable Development"
RITE, Tokyo, Japan – 7 February, 2012

Energy Transformation● The world is still on a carbon-intensive
growth path with ever increasing GHGemissions● 2°C stabilization requires a trend reversalof global emissions before 2020
● Global energy is based predominantly on
fossil sources (more than 80%)
● 3 billion people lack access to modern
forms of energy#3Decarbonization Pathways
Framework conditions
Challenges:● Achieving universal energy access in the world● Decarbonization of energy systems until 2050
Preconditions:● The global primary energy demand should notincrease significantly beyond the current levels● Drastic improvements in energy efficiency(halving the global of CO2 intensity of energy)● Behavioral and lifestyles changes necessary#4Mapping Energy Access
Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

Source: Pachauri et al, 2011#5

Source: Modi, 2011

#6

Global Carbon Pools
Unconventional
Natural Gas~2,450 – 4,550
GtCO2

N. Gas~340–500
GtCO2

Gas Hydrates~100,000~6,600– 57,000
GtCO2

Soils
~10,000 GtCO2

Oil~660–1,000
GtCO2

Unconv. Oil~1,100–1,500
GtCO2

Biomass~1,600–1,650
GtCO2

Coal~ 29,000 – 43,000 GtCO2

Atmosphere~3100
GtCO2

#714

Estimated shale gas resource

14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ#8Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density

WEU: 21% of demand below
renewable density threshold

EEU: 34% of demand below
renewable density threshold

9#9

Energy and Water from Deserts

Source: Hasni, 2011#10

Energy for Europe (Desertec)

Source: Hasni, 2011#11

Potential Synergies between New Energy andTransport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”
Super Cables
Power lines

Electric Power Research institute ©

MAGLEV

Source:Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: NREL, 2011#13

Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: LA Wind, 2011#14

Deep Ocean Pumped Storage~ 30m sphere @ 2000m ≈ 60MWh

Source: Schmidt-Böcking, 2011; FAZ, 2011#15

A Vision of a Future Energy System

Nakicenovic

Source: EU, 2002

#16

2012

Global Primary Energy
1200

1000

Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass

800

Microchip

EJ

Commercial
aviation

Nuclearenergy600
Television

400

200

Steam
engineElectricmotor

Vacuumtube
GasolineengineRenewables
NuclearGas
Oil
Coal01850

Biomass1900

1950

2000

2050

#17

Global Primary Energy
Efficiency – Counterfactual
1200

1000

Other renewables
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass

800

Microchip

EJ

Commercial
aviation

Nuclearenergy600
Television

400200

Steam
engineElectricmotor

Vacuumtube
GasolineengineRenewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

01850

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#18

Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200

1000

800

Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass

Microchip

EJ

Commercial
aviation

Nuclearenergy600
Television

400200

Steam
engineElectricmotor

Vacuumtube
GasolineengineRenewables
NuclearGas
Oil
Coal01850

Biomass

1900

Source: Riahi et al, 20111950

20002050#19

Global Primary Energy
no CCS, no Nuclear
1200

1000

800

Savings
Other renewables
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

EJ

Nuclear phase-out (choice)600

Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear

400

Gas
Oil

200

Coal01850

Biomass

1900

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

1950

2000

2050

#20

Global Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
1200

1000800Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

Savings
Other renewables
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass~30% renewables by 2030

EJ

Limited Intermittent REN
600

Oil phase-out (necessary)
Renewables
Nuclear400

Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS

200

Limited Bioenergy
Bio-CCS – “negative CO2”Gas
Oil
Coal01850

Biomass

1900

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

1950

2000

2050

#21

Global Primary Energy
WBGU Exemplary Pathway
1200

1000

EJ

800

600

Savings
GeothermalSolar
WindHydro
Nuclear
Gas
OilCoalBiomass

Renewables
Gas
Nuclear

400Oil200

CoalBiomass

01850

1900

1950

20002050#22

Global Final Energy Demand
Industry:
1. Retrofit of existing plants
2. Best available technology forResidential:
new investments
1. Rapid introduction of
3. Optimization of energy &strict building codes
material flows
Transport:
2. Accelerate retrofit rate
4. Lifecycle 1.
product
design &Technology
to 3% of stock perenhanced recycling
efficiency (50%)
year (x 4 improvement
5. Electrificationincl. switch
to2. Reduced
privateby 2050)
renewable energy
mobility (eg urban
3. Improved electricalplanning)
appliances3. Infrastructure forpublic transport +railway freight

900

800
700

EJ / yr

600
500
400
300

200
1000

2010

2020

2030

Source: Riahi et al, 2011

2040

2050

GEA-Efficiency#23

Global Energy Investments
Innovation
RD&D

Markets
Formation

Present
Investments

FutureInvestments[billion US$2005][billion US$2005][billion US$2005][billion US$2005]

2010

2010

2010

2010 - 2030

Efficiency>> 8~5300~400

Renewables> 12~ 20200~400

Access<1<1~9~40

Total

> 50

< 150

1250~1750

Annual Energy
Investments

Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011#242030 Energy Goals● Universal Access to Modern Energy● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

Drivers of Transformations
learning from the past
Vision – better future, normative perspectives
Abolition of slavery, Democracy, European Union

Crisis – “Gales of Creative Destruction”
The Great Depression, Structural adjustment programmers,
financial market reforms after 2008

Technology – Rapid innovation diffusion
Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution

Knowledge – research-driven, precautionary
principle
Protection of the ozone layers, climate change mitigation#27

Drivers of Transformations”Decarbonization Revolution”→ Growing number ofactors of change:
••
•
•
•

II. Vision:
low carbon
narrative

green businesses
citiescivil society
science
IGOs (UNIDO etc.)

I. Legitimacyof BAU
eroding#28

Drivers of Transformations
Multiple Drivers of Change
II. Vision:
low carbon
narrative

Policy regime
Greeninnovation

Growing numberof actors of change

Shifting norms
values / heuristics
Internationalcontext

 legitimacy
 concepts
 power

Problem perception
increasing in many sectors

 “it can be“ (finance, technologies)

I. Legitimacyof BAU
eroding#29

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
ESES

ES

CC – Climate Change
PH – Pollution & Health
ES – Energy Security

1.2%
CCPH

PH

CCPH

CC

PH

Added costs of ES andPH are comparatively
low when CC is taken as
an entry point

1.0%

Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)

CCAll objectives
fulfilled atStringent level

0.8%

0.6%
At least one
objective
fulfilled at
Intermediate
level

0.4%

0.2%
At least one
objective
fulfilled at
Weak level

0.0%
Only Energy Security

Only Air Pollution and Health

Only Climate Change

McCollum et alES

All Three Objectives#30

Frank Capra’s The Unleashed Goddess (1958)