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Rock Mech. Lab.

Giant Eruptions did not Frequently Occur in thePeriods When Giant Earthquakes Frequently
Occurred and vice versa after 1900
Yoshiaki FUJIIRock Mech. Lab., Hokkaido Univ., JAPANNariaki KODAMA
Hakodate Natl. College of Technology, JAPANBackground and objectives

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Rock Mech. Lab.

Ultimate goal

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To clarify why giant eruptions (VEI 6+) and giant
earthquakes (M8+) have a negative correlation.
To get deep understanding on the occurrences ofgiant earthquakes and giant eruptions and use it topredict them.

Rock Mech. Lab.

BackgroundEruptions and earthquakes have to correlate witheach other since they are of course mainly inducedby the plate tectonics.
Hoei earthquake (M8.4-9.1) on Oct. 4, 1707 -> Mt. Fujieruption (VEI:5) on Nov. 23, 1707
M5.1 earthquake on May 18, 1980 -> Immediately St.
Helens eruption (VEI:5) followed.

However, giant eruptions (VEI 6+) and giant
earthquakes (M8+) seem to have a negativecorrelation.

Hokkaido Univ. JapanHokkaido Univ. Japan

Observations
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Rock Mech. Lab.

Atmospheric nuclear explosions

Underground nuclear explosions

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104

14

Rock Mech. Lab.

300

102
10
Kamchatka
8

Alaska Sumatra Tohoku 1
10
Chile

Santa Maria Novarupta

Pinatubo 100

610-1

4
1900

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

1950
Year (AD)

2000

10-2

0

Cumulated eruptionenergy and seismic energy
for each decade show
weak (r = 0.36) but a Earthquake prone
negative correlation.
1018
Seismic energy (J/y)

Sunspot

103

Annual yield ofMagnitude or VEISunspot

nuclear explosions (MT/y)

Chile

12
Colombia-Ecuador

2000-2012
1900-1910

1017

Reduced major axisr = 0.355

1016
1015 15
101016

1017

Eruption energy (J/y)

1018
Eruption prone

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

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Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

They are on a great circle!
Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

They are on a great circle!
except for New Zealand and Mediterranean Sea eventsSequence
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Rock Mech. Lab.

MW 8.8+ earthquakes, 1900-2011
MW 7-8.8+ earthquakes, 1900-2011
VEI7+ eruptions, 6440BC-2011
VEI6 eruptions, 1900-2011
VEI 4-5 eruptions, 1900-2011

But how?

Are they influencing?
Aren't they too far?

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

M8.8+, VEI 6+

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1912

Rock Mech. Lab.

1964

1952
2011
1902

1991

1906
2004

Map data: ETOPO1
by Amante & Eakins,
2009

2010
1960

Hokkaido Univ. Japan
Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

But how?

Are they influencing?
Aren't they too far?

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

M8.8+, VEI 6+

Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

1912

Rock Mech. Lab.

1964

1952
2011
1902

1991

1906
2004

2010
1960

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

But how?

Are they influencing?
Aren't they too far?

Hokkaido Univ. Japan
Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

M8.8+, VEI 6+

1912

Rock Mech. Lab.

1964

1952
2011
1991

1902
1906

2004

2010

Hokkaido Univ. Japan1960

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

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Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

We have to think 3D!
Stop unreasonable CO2 reduction!

Rock Mech. Lab.

We have to think 3D!
Trenches and troughs (Aleutian, Philippine,East Luzon, Japan and Nankai etc.)

East Pacific Rise

Peru-Chile Trench
Central Indian Ridge

Plume

Mid Atlantic Ridge
A schematic sectional view of plates at the equator

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Why a great circle?
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Small circle can easily expand and shrink, and agiant event does not affect seismicity or volcanic
activity at distance.

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

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CO2 reduction!
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Univ. Japan

What controls earthquake prone oreruption prone?
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Rock Mech. Lab.

Variation in sea water subduction?
More sea water subduction may
cause melting of mantle and induce giant eruptions anddecrease friction at seismic faluts causing many small,sometimes silent earthquakes but prevent giant
earthquakes.

Everything on the great
circle can affect witheach other.
Giant earthquakes could
reduce stress in the rigid
great circle and decrease
giant eruptions in distance.
Giant eruptions could reducestress in the rigid great
circle and decrease giant
earthquakes in distance.

Rock Mech. Lab.

Critical stress state at subduction zones

Giant earthquake or eruption

Distorted great circle
Stress relief at a distant subduction zone

Less sea water subduction may
prevent magma production and giant eruptions but
increase friction of seismic source and cause giant
earthquakes.

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Wikipedia

Concluding remarks

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Rock Mech. Lab.

Hot plume activity?
Nuclear explosions?

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Atmospheric nuclear explosion including Hiroshima andNagasaki
504 times, 440 MT during 1945-1980
600 times radioactive fallout from Fukushima
60 times from Chernobyl

The largest one was Tsar Bomba in 1961 by USSR whose
yield was 50 MT, equivalent to MW 8.7 or VEI 5.4.

Sunspot?

Mushroom cloud of Tsar Bombain the stratosphere, Wikipedia

Stress relief along the entire great circle

Rock Mech. Lab.

Giant Eruptions did not frequently occur in theperiods when giant earthquakes frequentlyoccurred and vice versa at least after 1900.
The great circle concept would be able to explain
the negative correlation
or at least we have to think 3D layout of tectonicplates.

Different but great circles on the earth areused to consider continental drift.
Mitchell, R. N., Kilian, T. M. & Evans, D. A. D. (2012),
Supercontinent Cycles and the Calculation of
Absolute Palaeolongitude in Deep Time, Nature, Vol.
482, pp. 208-211, doi:10.1038/nature10800

The causes which control earthquake prone oreruption prone should be investigated.

Hokkaido Univ. Japan
Hokkaido Univ. Japan

Hokkaido Univ. Japan

Mitchell et al., 2012

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