Developing Visions for a LowCarbon Society (LCS) Throughhttp://2050.nies.go.jp
Sustainable Development
脱温暖化
2050

Junichi Fujino on behalf of the Steering Committee
NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies)
The first workshop on “Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society
through Sustainable Development”, June 14-16, 2006, Tokyo, Japan

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Key message 1:

Year
BaU

GHG-475ppm

650
550500Year
GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm

GHG-650ppm

Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric
GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.
2(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)

2100

20902080

2070

2060

年

2050

02040

年

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2030

0.0

BaU

2020

1.0

： 20
算換素
650 炭 15
化
550 酸
500 二量475 出 10排ス
GHG475ppm
ガ
果 5
GHG: Greenhouse gases
効室
温2010

昇上 2.0温気Global GHG emissions

2000℃
年 3.0

BaU 年

1990

4.0

Temperature raise(global average)

25()
GHG emissions(Gt-CGtC/eq)

5.0

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Global mean temperature increase(1990 =0.6 )(oC above the pre-industriallevel)“Low-carbon societies are necessary to avoid
dangerous climate change.”

Key message 2:“A portfolio of options and international
cooperation are necessary to realize global LCS.”
CO2 emissions share in 2000

US, 24%
Other, 44%
China, 12%France, 2%
Canada, 2%
UK, 2%

Japan, 5%
India, 5%
Germany, 3%3Key message 3:“Aligning sustainable development & climatechange actions can reduce the burden andfacilitate the transition to stabilization. LCS is
technologically and economically feasible.”
SustainableDevelopment

Economic/social indicator

National EconomicTargets

Economy-environment
trade-off can becircumvented with
innovative strategies
and by exploiting cobenefits

Innovation strategies
Exploiting co-benefits
Environmental Quality
National Environment
Goals

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Workshop Schedule
June 14June 15
Expert WS
Expert WS
Day 1
Day 2
Morning Introduction
Session 3:
Session 1:
Win-WinLong-term Goals
Strategies
Afternoon Session 2:
Session 4:
Methodologies
Low-Carbon
Options
Session 5:
Break outgroupsJune 16
Expert WS
Day 3
Session 6:
Cooperation
Wrap up
Closing5

Objectives and Goals (1)• Arriving at Long-term goals for LCS (Session 1, Group 1)– Identifying and understanding the necessity for deep cuts in global
greenhouse gas emissions toward 2050 based on scientific findings• Methodologies for LCS (Session 2)– Depicting visions and pathways (back-casting)– Qualitative modeling of the future society– LCS scenarios harmonization at national, regional and global levels– Possible combinations of options (technological, institutional, behavioral)• The role of technology, institutions and behavior to achieve LCS(Sessions 2, 3 and 4, Group 2)– Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenarios studies– Looking at possible options such as for supply-side, demand-side, policy,institutional, financial, life style based on national circumstance6

Objectives and Goals (2)• Aligning LCS and sustainable development (Session 3,Group 3)– Investigating possible co-benefits of LCS such as:• Tackling poverty• Other environmental concerns (including air pollution, water, land use)
• Energy security• International cooperation for LCS (Session 6, Group 4)– Sharing best practice and information– Identifying opportunities for cooperation and how best to cooperatein estimating country, regional and global-level LCS scenarios.
– Identifying gaps between our goals to develop country-level LSC
scenarios and the current reality.

7Expected Outputs• Workshop summary from the steering committee• Report from the workshop• Workshop presentations on NIES website• New research collaboration• Enhanced communication between researchersand stakeholders

8Key questions for this workshop
1) What are the key issues?
2) What are the barriers and how can weovercome them?
3) What kind of cooperation we can build?
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