Feb.16 2006

Japan – UK Joint Research Project
Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society throughsustainable development
MoE, Japan / Defra, UK
１． Outline
The Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MoEJ) and the Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs in the UK (DEFRA) are jointly promoting ascientific research project: Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society throughsustainable development. They will promote studies toward achieving a Low
Carbon Society (LCS) by 2050 in collaboration, encourage other countries toengage in LCS studies, and jointly hold series of international workshops. The
first workshop will be held in 2006 in Tokyo.
２． Objectives
The objectives of the joint research project are to:(1) Understand the necessity for drastic reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions in order to achieve a LCS based on scientific findings, and to anddisseminate this understanding;(2) Review country-level studies on GHG emissions scenarios;(3) Investigate pathways to achieve a LCS at country level in a globally
harmonized manner, which are composed of concrete actions and innovations
including both legal/social/ behavioral systems and technological solutions;(4) Identify bottle-necks, barriers and opportunities for achieving a LCS;
(5) Contribute to the development of international cooperation between
researchers working towards a LCS; and(6) Share the images of a Low Carbon Society.
３． Scientific BackgroundThe emission reductions we make, or do not make, in the next few years, criticallyaffect our ability to meet environmental goals for long-term climate protection.
Because of past and current greenhouse gas emissions, a certain increase in global
temperature is unavoidable. Such increases in temperature carry profound risks.
Even a small increase in temperature is likely to have significant impacts onecosystems and species, might lead to increased drought and extreme rainfalls,
with severe consequences for our society. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other, more recent,studies have indicated the following:① An increase of even 1℃ in global average surface temperature compared topre-industrial levels is likely to have significant impacts on fragile ecosystems
including coral reefs② Negative impacts on agriculture, water resources, and human health would
appear on a global scale for a temperature increase between 2 and 3℃③ Serious risk of large scale, irreversible system disruption, such as reversal of
the land carbon sink and destabilisation of the Antarctic ice sheets, is more
likely above 3℃. Such levels are well within the range of climate change
projections for the century.
It is vital to consider how the current upward trend in greenhouse gas emissions
can be halted. The ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is “stabilization of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
The European Union has a target to limit the increase in global averagetemperature to 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. When this target was adopted in
1990, it was thought that this equated to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels below
approximately 550 parts per million (ppm), but in 2001 the IPCC suggested that alimit closer to 450ppm might be more appropriate. Since pre-industrial times wehave already seen atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rise from 270 to380ppm. So we are already approaching the lower limit of 450ppm, which
re-emphasizes the need for urgent action.
In Japan, the Sub-Committee for International Climate Change Strategy under
the Central Environment Council recommended in its second Interim Report that“taking all this scientific knowledge into account, we think starting point forstudying long-term targets should for now be the approach that would limit thetemperature increase to 2℃”.
The joint research project will use the same premise of a 2℃ limit, with someflexibility, for each participating study; this corresponds to a reduction of global
anthropogenic GHG emissions by more than half of the existing levels over theperiod 2050 to 2100 in order to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations
between 2100 and 2150.

４． Project Format(1) Organizations leading on the research
Japan: National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES)UK: UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change Research(2) International Workshops
The first international workshop will be held in Japan from June 14 to 16,
2006, involving researchers and governmental officials from about 20
countries, and international organizations. Prior to the workshop, a public
symposium will be held in Tokyo on June 13, 2006. A second workshop will
be held in 2007.
５． Scope and characteristics of the research
The joint research project will use a top-down or “back-casting” approach toidentify what is required over the long term to realize stabilization of global
temperatures. The vision of a Low Carbon Society will be described alongwith the scale of cuts required in GHG emissions compared to current levels.
The project intends to identify what can be done now and in the future bysumming up concrete actions and innovations needed, in terms of legal/socialsystems, technologies, and life-styles. It is intended to cover studies on therequirements of people living in the 2050 world, as well as studies on various
aspects of LCS including energy supply, structure of industry, structure ofcities and countryside, and transportation systems.