The first workshop of Japan–UK Joint Research Project

Developing Visions fora Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development
Executive Summary

June 14th to 16th, 2006
Mita Kaigisho, Tokyo, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba
Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Telephone +81-29-850-2504
Japan LCS website: http://2050.nies.go.jp© NIES, Japan, 2006
This publication (excluding the logo) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that it isreproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context.

The material must be acknowledged as NIES copyrightwith the title and source of the publication specified.
This workshop summary and all presentation materials are also available on the Japan LCS website.

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odduuccttiioonnA workshop on “Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society (LCS) throughSustainable Development” was held from June 14 to 16, 2006 in Tokyo, hostedand organized by The Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MoEJ) and the UK
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), National Institutefor Environmental Studies (NIES), UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), andTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research with the advice of the steeringcommittee composed of scientists and governmental officials from Japan, UK,China, Germany, India, Mexico, Russia and USA. Prior to the workshop, a public
symposium was held in Tokyo on June 13, 2006.
Dr. Shuzo Nishioka of NIES and Dr. Jim Skea of UKERC co-chaired the Workshop.
54 experts from 19 countries and 6 international organizations, and 65 otherparticipants attended.
The objectives of the workshop were:a) identifying and understanding the necessity for deep cuts in greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions toward 2050 based on scientific findings,b) reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario studies in developed anddeveloping countries,c) aligning sustainable development and climate objectives,d) studying methodologies to achieve LCS,e) identifying gaps between our goals to develop country-level LCS scenarios andthe current reality and,f) identifying opportunities for cooperation and how best to cooperate inestimating country, regional and global-level LCS scenarios.
This summary has been produced by the steering committee. It does not
represent the formal views of any of the participants or countries involved in theworkshop.

1

1.W
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A Low-Carbon Society:•takes actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable
development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups withinsociety are met;•

makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhousegases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep
cuts in global emissions;•demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses low-carbon energy
sources and production technologies, and•adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent withlow levels of GHG emissions.

For developed countries, achieving a LCS is likely to involve making deep cuts incarbon dioxide emissions by the middle of the 21st century. It will involve thedevelopment and deployment of low-carbon technologies and changes tolifestyles and institutions.
For developing countries the achievement of a LCS must go hand in hand withthe achievement of development goals. This would be with a view to achieving
an advanced state of development with carbon intensity commensurate withthose of developed LCSs.

2.WWhhyy dowdod LLowee noww--C
neeeedCaarrbboonn SSoocciieettiieess??
Global emissions of greenhouse gases are projected to reach levels during thenext 100 years, which could have serious negative effects on the climate system,
natural environment and human society. Deep cuts in global greenhouse gas
emissions are required to prevent the worst effects of climate change and thusachieve the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC to stabilise greenhouse gas

2concentrations in the atmosphere at levels which avoid dangerous climatechange. Although there is some debate over the precise magnitude of emission
reductions required at the global level, in part due to uncertainty in climate
sensitivity and the nature of the impacts expected, it is clear that developed
country emissions need to be reduced by at least about half of current levels by
2050. In addition, developing country emissions need to be limited in a way
which enables the achievement of their development goals. Many of our choices
today and in the near future will determine our emissions pathways for decades
to come. Urgent action is therefore required to keep options available to achieve
the magnitude of cuts required. Delay in acting now would increase the burdenof climate change impacts and emissions reductions for future generations.

3.H
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Long term goals can help us define the pathway to a LCS. Developing
shorter-termtargets

caninform

andenergise

thepolicy-makingandimplementation processes. Targets should be flexible enough to allow freedom
to act in response to an uncertain future.
There is a need to identify priority options that can be implemented in the shortterm which help to make early progress towards low carbon goals. Thesepriorities would vary from country to country and will depend on economic
circumstances and resource endowment. Policies for low carbon options should
be durable and consistent with long–term strategies. Carbon markets andappropriate financial instruments provide effective incentives.
There exist numerous potential pathways towards a sustainable LCS. The
options should be evaluated from a variety of economic and societalperspectives including regional, national and global. A combination oftechnological innovation, policy implementation, institutional and behaviouralchange will be necessary. These elements should not be treated in isolation fromeach other. They should be integrated with existing policies that address othersocial goals such as energy security, access, competitiveness and land-use.

3

There is no single option for achieving a LCS. The approach to some measures
will be common to all countries. Other issues, for example energy poverty andhousehold energy efficiency, need careful assessment in their local context.
LCSs are likely to require substantial changes in areas such as the built
environment, transport, and industrial and service sectors. There will also be aneed to implement these changes in harmony with other development goals.
Therefore, a portfolio of sustainable emission reduction measures is required,
which will take into account regional specificities. Key options include;•Demand reduction through energy efficiency and lifestyle change. It is
important to accelerate the historical rate of energy efficiency
improvement through incentives, institutional and behaviour change.

•Biomass along with other renewables. These play important roles in manynational energy systems, and also have the potential to achieve
substantial carbon emissions reductions. The development of this set ofoptions needs to take into account prudent use of land and forestry.

•Carbon capture and storage. This was identified as a likely bridging
technology that could reconcile continuing fossil fuel use with lower
carbon emissions. The scale of carbon capture and storage required bymany LCS scenarios is substantial. It is not yet clear to what extent thiscan be realised in practice.

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The sustainable development perspective is important, especially from theviewpoint of developing countries, because they have development choices open
to them that could allow the achievement of a LCS more cost effectively. They
could reach their national sustainable development goals along with a LCS, ifsuitable policies are coupled with international collaboration at the regional andglobal levels. LCSs could bring additional benefits such as energy security, land
use and conservation, reduced pollution, and environmentally sustainable cities
and transportation.

4

The successful development of LCSs must involve a wider range of domestic andinternational actors than those involved with purely energy and high GHG
intensive sectors.
Necessary actors include:•governments (which set the overall framework and can provide long-term
predictable signals),•businesses (who bring forward innovations),•the financial sector (private, public and multilateral) and•civil society (whose awareness can help align diverse stakeholders).

Their incentives and risks have to be jointly addressed.
Countries’ deployment of policies and the regulatory environment they set canhelp create conditions required to support large scale infrastructure and capital
flows.
A wide range of policies is needed. Critical to these are government support,
reflected in public procurement, product standards, the setting of suitable
incentives for investors and the fostering of public awareness and lifestylechange.
Realising win-win options also requires international collaboration. Traderegimes could encourage technologies and products that will enhancesustainable development while lowering carbon emissions. Knowledge transfer
related specifically to the LCS can play a key role in supporting sustainable
development in a wider sense. Knowledge transfer can cover research, policies
and practices as well as technology.
The most effective technology transfer often comes through the private sector,
which is supported by clear market signals, especially the establishment of along-term price for carbon in international market.
The availability of efficient technologies is crucial in realising win-win
opportunities, especially from the long-term perspective. Public and private
investment in technology R&D can play an important role in developing win-win
opportunities. Increasing the overall volume of energy R&D in all countries is5

critical to a sustainable, low carbon future. While recent decreases in the volumeof energy R&D in developed countries is a move in the wrong direction, there areencouraging signs of increases in energy R&D in key developing countries.
Coordinating public and private R&D activity would help to focus investments.
Effective policies to encourage the deployment of technologies are also critical.
A key priority is to avoid lock-in to unsustainable technologies. Some
investments, for example in power plants, may have a lifetime of decades.
Taking early action with long-term perspectives will help to reconcile the LCS
with sustainable development.

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The formal international climate framework of the UNFCCC is essential to thedevelopment of LCSs. Informal processes such as the Gleneagles Dialogue
complement the formal process. We hope that the insights gained at thisworkshop will provide a useful input to existing international processes.
There is a need for stronger political signals at domestic and international levels.
The role of the Clean Energy Investment Framework, currently being developedby the multilateral financial institutions, in particular will be crucial.
International Financial Institutions (World Bank, Regional Development Banks,IMF) could usefully assess present instruments and reshape them where neededin consultations with regions and countries to enhance policy credibility anddiminish investment risks. Regional institutions can play a central role inadvancing country dialogues and examining conditions that facilitate therequired capital replacement.
A resource mechanism such as a special global fund for technology innovations
and transfer would enlarge the set of options for transitions to LCSs. Likewiseinternational trade can be potentially tapped to foster transitions to LCSs.

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A variety of tools and methods are required to explore pathways including policy
scenarios and backcasting methodologies. The latter, for example, first set
goals of desirable LCS and, by working backwards explore optimal paths fortheir achievement. However further research is needed. Among the ideas
discussed at the workshop were:Modeling•

How can we coordinate the development of baselines and policy
scenarios?

Technology•

What risks and potentials are associated with individual technologicalresponses?

•

What impact will technological learning have on speed and cost ofimplementation?

Socio-Economics•

What are the costs of action and of inaction with respect to climatechange at the regional and global level?

•

What is the most cost effective way to achieve a LCS individually andinternationally?

•What influence do social infrastructure, lifestyle/behaviour, andgovernance have on the ability to achieve a LCS?

Policy option assessment•

What short term policy implications follow from the long-term goals?

•How to integrate issues other than climate change, like poverty reductionand energy security, in the LCS methodology?

7

NNeexxtt SStteeppss
A further workshop will be held in 2007 in UK. Participants provided concretesuggestions regarding focus, content and participation in the 2007 workshop:•the next workshop should be outcome oriented;•a wider range of LCS scenarios should be presented, with more
opportunity to go into detail and focus on similarities and differences
between scenarios; and•the workshop should engage a wider range of stakeholders including
business leaders.

Participants also considered opportunities to disseminate information on LCS
activities:•a semi-popular compilation of LCS results and scenarios could becompiled; and•the 2007 workshop could generate a map of LCS activities.

International Steering
Committee
Tokyo, Japan
June, 2006

8International Steering Committee
Co-chairs: Shuzo Nishioka (NIES, Japan)
Jim Skea (UKERC, UK)
Igor Bashmakov (Center for Energy efficiency, Russia)
Andrew Bolitho (Defra, UK)
Stephen Cornelius (Defra, UK)
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
Jose Alberto Garibaldi (Energeia, Mexico)
Kejun Jiang (Energy Research Institute, China)
Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan)
Jonathan Pershing (World Resource Institute, USA)
P.R. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Naoya Tsukamoto (MoEJ, Japan)
David Warrilow (Defra, UK)
Jim Watson (SPRU and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK)
Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)

“Japan–UK Joint Research Project
Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development”
The Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MoEJ) and the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs in the UK (Defra) are jointly promoting a scientific research
project toward achieving a Low-Carbon Society by 2050.
The objectives of the joint research project are:
¾ Identifying and understanding the necessity for deep cuts in greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions toward 2050 based on scientific findings (e.g. 50% global GHG
emissions reductions in 2050 to 2100 compared to 1990 levels).
¾ Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario studies in some developed anddeveloping countries such as Japan, UK, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,Germany, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, and USA. Looking at
possible options such as for supply-side, demand-side, policy, institution, financial,
lifestyle based on national circumstance.
¾ Aligning sustainable development and climate objectives: win-win strategies.
Investigating possible co-benefits of LCS such as tackling poverty; otherenvironmental concerns (air pollution, water, land use, etc); and energy security.
¾ Studying methodologies to achieve LCS, such as depicting visions and pathways(i.e. back-casting); qualitative modeling of the future society; possible combinationof options (technological, institutional, behavioral); financial mechanisms; LCS
scenarios harmonization at national, regional and global levels.
¾ Identifying gaps between our goals to develop country-level LSC scenarios and thecurrent reality.
¾ Sharing best practice and information; identifying opportunities for cooperationand how best to cooperate in estimating country, regional and global-level LCS
scenarios.

“Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050”
This research project, initiated in 2004, is sponsored by Global Environment Research
Fund of MoEJ. The objective of the project is to propose concrete countermeasures toachieve LCSs in Japan by 2050, including institutional change, technology
development and lifestyle change. More than 50 research experts have studied
together to develop visions and roadmaps.
This project supports the “Japan–UK Joint Research Project.”
http://2050.nies.go.jp/
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.

Contact person: Junichi Fujino (NIES), fuji@nies.go.jp

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050