AJISS-Commentary
The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies
NPIRIPS

Nakasone Yasuhiro

The Japan Institute of

Research Institute for

Peace InstituteInternational Affairs

Peace and Security(Secretariat)

Editorial Advisory Board:

No. 282

Akio Watanabe (Chair)
Ichiro Fujisaki
Masashi Nishihara
Kenichiro Sasae

08 December 2020

Editorial Committee:
Tsutomu Kikuchi
Fumiaki Kubo
Tsuyoshi Sunohara
Shujiro Urata andTomiko Ichikawa

FIVE WAYS TO SAVE
MULTILATERALISM FROM COLLAPSING

Kiyotaka Akasaka

Editor & Online Publisher:
Kenichiro Sasae
President, JIIA

・ Multilateralism is now in grave danger, not onlybecause of Trump's "America First" policies, butalso because of an increasing number ofcountries that ignore international norms andorganizations.
・ The future of multilateralism is bleak but nothopeless. The merits of multilateralism
overwhelmingly outnumber its demerits.
・ Vigorous initiatives must be launched to savethe current world order based on multilateralism.
Japan can, and should, play a more active role.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and should
not be attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes ofStrategic Studies.

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

Multilateralism is now in grave danger, not only because of the incessant"America First" policies of US President Donald Trump, but also because of thedisarrayed and uncoordinated international responses to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Moreover, an increasing number of political leaders of many countries, big and small,
tend to ignore both international norms and international organizations such as theUnited Nations and the World Health Organization.
The list of challengers or "spoilers" of multilateralism is becoming longer, as Xi
Jinping of China, Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Hassan
Rouhani of Iran, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Rodrigo
Duterte of the Philippines, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela andothers have come to challenge international laws and norms in one way or another.
The projected victory of Joe Biden as the next President of the United States isindeed good news for multilateralism, but the danger of multilateralism losing its global
significance will not be entirely abated, as challengers to multilateralism are still
numerous.
The worsening relations between the United States and China in recent years
have been inhibiting the working of multilateral institutions in areas such as trade, health,climate change, and human rights. The current coronavirus pandemic has shaken
global governance in public health, with the WHO's initial handling being heavily
criticized for seemingly favoring China.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has lamented the current state ofmultilateralism in his speeches at the United Nations, stating his fear of "the world
splitting in two, with the two largest economies on earth creating two separate andcompeting worlds, each with their own dominant currency, trade and financial rules,
their own internet and artificial intelligence capacities, and their own zero sum
geopolitical and military strategies." He stressed the need to avert such a fractured
world and to maintain a universal system with strong multilateral institutions.
Indeed, the merits of multilateralism, particularly those of the United Nations, lie
in the universality of membership around the world. The international legitimacy ofdecisions made by any group of nations, be they the G7 or G20, cannot be assured ifthe group does not have universal membership. That is why decisions or resolutions by
the UN Security Council are considered to form the basis of international law, as all
members of the UN have agreed to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security
Council (Article 25 of the UN Charter).

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

There are, however, some important downsides of multilateralism, such as thepainfully slow process of decision-making due to the involvement of many participants,and disproportionate power given to small nations as members large and small arenormally given equal voting rights. Multilateral institutions such as the UN General
Assembly and the WTO often use a consensus rule for making decisions, and bigelephants like China and India hide behind the curtain of the group of small developing
countries, making it harder to reach decisions. Discontent with multilateralism is sharedby many Americans, and it may not be wise to expect a sudden change under a new
American administration.
The future of multilateralism is therefore bleak but not hopeless. If the merits
and demerits of multilateralism were compared on a balance sheet, the merits wouldoverwhelmingly outnumber the demerits, as there are so many global issues waiting formultilateral responses. There is no alternative to multilateralism in order to solve suchproblems as climate change, infectious diseases, refugees, terrorism, and nuclearproliferation, as they do not respect national borders.
It is now crystal clear that vigorous initiatives must be launched to save thecurrent world order based on multilateralism. But what exactly can be done? There is nosilver bullet, but the following five initiatives, among others, seem to be criticallyimportant for world leaders to address urgently.
First and foremost, we need a global leader or leaders to reinforce current
multilateral institutions such as the UN, WHO, UNESCO, UNRWA, UNFPA, WTO andothers that have been weakened by vicious attacks and criticisms from the Trumpadministration and other countries. It was the United States that took the initiative tocreate and strengthen these multilateral institutions in the first place, and now the returnof US leadership under a new US administration is ardently anticipated, although it mustbe acknowledged that the US’s global sway has been relatively diminished.
Now that the influence of the United States has waned over the years, not only
because of Mr. Trump's policies but also because of its relative decline in economic sizeand leadership, middle-ranking liberal democracies such as Japan, EU member states,
India and ASEAN countries must adopt more active policies to reform and strengthen
multilateral institutions. They should organize regular dialogue meetings similar to theQuadrilateral Security Dialogue among Japan, the US, Australia and India. It does notseem appropriate to expect that China will replace the United States as a champion ofmultilateralism, for China's track record in its engagements with multilateral institutions

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

shows that China is interested in cherry-picking whatever benefits it from the existing
rules, rather than leading the way in new initiatives.
Second, the reform and reinvigoration of the UN Security Council is all themore important as it can and must play a more effective role in maintaining peace andsecurity all over the world. The dysfunction of the UN Security Council in dealing with
the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, the Middle East peace process, theSyrian civil war and other situations has had a symbolic impact on the world's
perception that multilateralism is not effectively working. It is high time that bold
imaginative proposals be put forward to break the logjam of the Security Councilreforms.
Third, the financial basis of multilateralism is crucial and it must bestrengthened. The regular budget of the UN is about that of Japan's tiny Tottori
Prefecture with a population of just 560,000. The assessed budgets of the UN andvarious other multilateral institutions, including the WHO, should be greatly increased.
Japan's Official Development Assistance (ODA) has been halved over the last 20 years,
and it should be re-increased, particularly for multilateral institutions.
Fourth, the WTO under new leadership should be given a greater role inpromoting freer global trade and in managing dispute settlement procedures. Japan is ina uniquely important position in this respect, as it has been leading regional and bilateralfree trade initiatives. Bilateral and regional free trade agreements were originally
expected to supplement global efforts to promote free trade, and the WTO’s efforts toensure free trade among its member states must be strongly supported.
Fifth, the success of the SDGs must be ensured by constant campaigns led by
the UN Secretary-General and world leaders like those in the final phase of theMillennium Development Goals (MDGs) for the period 2000-2015. Responsibility forcarrying out programs and achieving the 17 lofty goals rests with member states andthey must be constantly supported by the UN leadership. SDG summits should beorganized regularly on the UN Secretary-General's initiative at the UN Headquarters.
In all these areas, Japan can, and should, play a more active role. Mr. Abe in
his eight years of premiership did take some notable initiatives in supporting multilateralefforts in such areas as trade, a free and open Indo-Pacific, peace building in Africa andan environmental agenda. There are now growing calls from many corners of the world
for Japan under its new prime minister Mr. Suga to undertake global and regional
initiatives to maintain and strengthen multilateral institutions in concert with otherlike-minded liberal democracies. Japan has quite a number of bilateral issues, including

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The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies

territorial disputes with neighboring countries, and as a consequence multilateralism
has long been put on the back burner in Japan's foreign policies. It is high time thatmultilateralism was given more weight and priority.

Kiyotaka Akasaka is the former United Nations Under-Secretary-General forCommunications and Public Information.

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