Transport SystemResilience

At a glance
The transport sector currently faces a number ofdisruptions related to geopolitics, climate change
and energy security. Transport system resiliencerefers to the sector’s capacity to deal with, adapt
to and recover from such disruptions.
Increased interconnections within transport systems
exacerbate their growing exposure to “poly-crises”. This isalso the case for links between the transport sector andother systems: disruptions related to energy, pandemics,
cyber-attacks or supply chains can easily cascade totransport systems and across regions.
The severity of disruptions depends on the characteristicsof the aﬀected networks. Hub-and-spoke networks, forinstance, are more vulnerable to cascading disruptions thanless centralised systems.
In the case of container shipping, regional crises can quickly
spill over to other regions: the Red Sea navigation crisis of2023-24 disrupted shipping not only between Asia andEurope but also between Asia and North America, eventhough ships on this route do not transit the Red Sea

What is transportsystem resilience?

What can policy
makers do to maketransport systems
more resilient?

How do diﬀerent
transport network
types respondto disruption?

Huge uncertainty exists about where disruptions mightoccur in future. And despite progress in risk assessment, few
governments currently use existing tools – including horizon
scanning, vulnerability analysis of network characteristics,
digital twins, and transport modelling – to identify potential
risks.
Policies to make transport systems more resilient needto deﬁne the balance between mitigation and adaptation
measures. Which measures make most sense diﬀers acrosstransport systems and also depends on the characteristics ofindividual transport networks.

Figure 3

Figure 5

Crisis in the Red Sea

Ships transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, November 2023 to March 2024

Bulk carrier

Product tanker

LNG

LPG

The cost of disruptions in container shipping
Container freight rates on selected trade routes

Crude oil tanker

Shanghai – Europe (USD/TEU)

Shanghai - Mediterranean USD/TEU

Container ship

Shanghai – US West Coast USD/FEU

Shanghai – US East Coast USD/FEU

7Freight rate (USD$000s per container)

500

400

300

200

100045 46 47 48 49 50 51 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Weeks

65432
1
0

01/12 08/12 15/12 22 /12 29/12 05/01 12 /01 19/01 26/01 02 /02
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024

Incorporate resilience into national andmultilateral transport policies and planning

Create tools that help reduce uncertainty
about future disruptions to transport systems

Inoculating transport systems against breakdowns requires
making the notion of resilience an integral part of transport
policies, strategic planning, infrastructure appraisal,competition policies, and transport-related indicators

The eﬀectiveness of such tools, and the policies they inform,in turn, depends on the coherence and consistency of theinformation gathered on transport system performance.

Resilience should be a core objective of transport policy.
Resilient transport systems continue to function or recoverquickly in case of disruptions, minimising the cost to society
and the economy.

In the case of global disruptions, national governments arelimited in their ability to act alone eﬀectively. Multilateralco-ordination oﬀers huge opportunities for governments tolearn from each other how to deal with disruptions.

Analytical tools and indicators can help reduce uncertainty
by detecting vulnerabilities in transport systems. Suchtools should be employed by policies that aim to increasetransport’s resilience.

Policy makers should stimulate the development anddeployment of methods such as horizon scanning, risk
assessment and prediction of vulnerabilities via analysis ofnetwork characteristics, digital twins or transport modelling.

Figure 4An
Atinterconnected
a glanceworld

The transport sector currently faces a number of
disruptions related to geopolitics, climate change& ISC resilience
Australasia& Oceania TransportGulfand energy
security.
systemSub-SaharanAfrica
Latin
Americarefers to the sector’s capacity to deal
with, adapt
Europe&Mediterranean
NorthAmerica
to and recover from such disruptions.

Maritime Trade Connectivity scores by world region, 2006-22, per quarter2

Score (percent)

Far East

Corporate Partnership
Board

GlobalIncreasedinterconnections within transport systems
95
exacerbate their growing exposure to “poly-crises”. This isalso the case for links between the transport sector andothersystems: disruptions related to energy, pandemics,
85
cyber-attacks or supply chains can easily cascade totransport systems and across regions.
75

The severity of disruptions depends on the characteristicsof the aﬀected networks. Hub-and-spoke networks, forinstance,
are more vulnerable to cascading disruptions than65
less centralised systems.

Transport SystemResilience
Summary and Conclusions

194

RoundtableEUEU

Transport SystemResilience
ITF Roundtable Report

CPB

This report sets out the main disruptions totransport systems worldwide. It explores
ways to reduce uncertainty by assessing
vulnerabilities, and the main mitigation andadaptation measures required to ensuretransport systems function in times of crisis.

In55 the case of container shipping, regional crises can quickly
spill
2006
over 2008
to other2010
regions:
2012 the2014
Red Sea
2016navigation2018 2020
crisis2022
of2023-24 disrupted shipping Years
not only between Asia andEurope but also between Asia and North America, eventhough ships on this route do not transit the Red Sea
Huge uncertainty exists about where disruptions mightoccur in future. And despite progress in risk assessment, few
governments currently use existing tools – including horizon
Developscanning, guidance
vulnerability onanalysis
whenof networkand howcharacteristics,
to apply
resilience
digital twins,measuresand transportformodellingtransport– to identify
systems
potential
Guidancerisks.
for policy makers on how to prepare for transportsystem disruptions should focus on best practices forrobustness
Policies to andmakerecovery.
transport systems more resilient needto deﬁne the balance between mitigation and adaptationOnemeasures.
importantWhichtaskmeasuresinvolves elaborating
make most thesense
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is estimatingnetworks.
costs of disruption, mitigation
and adaptation in diﬀerent circumstances. A third is deciding
how to embed concepts such as redundancy and adaptability
in transport decision making.
All of these actions can help determine the circumstances inwhich speciﬁc policy measures make most sense.

Available for download:
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