Low Carbon Asia:
Visions and Actions
Scenarios for China, India, Japanand other Asian Countries
Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan),
P.R. Shukla (IIM, India),
Kejun Jiang (ERI, China) andJunichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
10 December 2009
COP15 and CMP5 Side Event
Bella Center, Copenhagen
1

GHG emissions per capita

How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?

High
CarbonLocked inSociety
Low
CarbonLocked inSociety

Climatecatastrophe:
Significant
Damage toEconomy andEco‐ System

High Carbon
Locked‐in type
Development

Leapfrog‐Development
Low Carbon
Society

BackcastingTime

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japanand NIES

Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian3

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

AsiaModeling
Network
Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18
September 2009

14th AIM International
Workshop on 14-15
February 2009

AIM Training Workshop on 31
August - 11 September 2009

Modeling Alternate Development Perspectives
AimInterventions

DriversTarget

Allocation of Rights

Carbon MarketUniversal ParticipationConventional Climate
Centric Paradigm

Market Structure/ Rules

GlobalGreenhouse Gas
Concentration
Stabilization

Remove Market Barriers

Technologies

Cooperative R&D
Tech Transfer

Stabilization
at Minimum
GDP Loss

Competition/ Trade

Energy Resources

Energy-Mix Mandates
Modify Preferences

Forecasting

Aim

Drivers

Interventions

Targets

TechnologicalInnovations
Innovations

Social/InstitutionalManagement

Sustainable Development
and Climate Paradigm

Low
CarbonSociety

Aligning Markets
Co-benefits
Co-benefits

Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Long -term Vision

Sustainability
Sustainability

Avoid Lock -ins
Modify Preferences

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, IndiaNational
Socio-economicObjectivesand Targets

Back-casting

GlobalClimate Change
Objectives
and Targets

Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios
Stabilization Scenarioswith Global Targets

Scenarios

Baseline
Paradigm

Conventional

Sustainability

Δt 4 to 6 COStabilization
Targets

6.0

5.0

4.5

2.6

Δt 3 to 5 C
ORadiative Forcing
Target W/m2

6.0

5.0

4.5

GlobalRegional

National

2.6

Δt 3 CO

Δt 2 CO

Geography
Level

GlobalRegional

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

NationalLocal

Local

National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models
Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population
Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005
Economy 23 times
Population 1.56 times

From 2005-2050:
Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%
Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

3,000

M toe

2,500
2,000

Other Renewables
NuclearHydroGas
Oil
Coal
Commercial Biomass
Non Com Biomass

8,000

Energy

7,000

1,500
1,000
500
02005

Carbon Emissions

6,000

Million Ton CO2

3,500

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

02000 20052010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Global Stabilization Target: 2 CO

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Mitigation Technology Options
8,000

Conventional Approach: transition withconventional path and carbon price

OtherMillion Ton CO2Baseline Emissions• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push
• Top-down/Supply-side actions

6,000
CCS
4,000

Device Efficiency

Fossil Switch

NuclearTechnology Co-operation Areas

Renewable

2,000• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCSO

Emissions (for 2 Target)
02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Carbon Price ($)

205287136

200

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate
and sustainable development actions

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Million Ton CO2• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

8,000
CCS
Transport
Reduced Consumption
Recycling
Material Substitutions

6,000

Device Efficiency

4,000

Fossil Switch

Renewable Energy
Building

2,000O

Emissions (for 2 Target)
02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Carbon Price ($)

1528

55

100117

Low Carbon Scenario: Ahmedabad
GHG Emissions/reductions (mt- C02)

Ahmedabad (2009)
Pop 5.5 MilAMC(Newboundary) AMC(Oldboundary)

Mitigation
Contributions

7060

3.7
4.3
2.4

50

6.3

Transport Efficiency
Industry Efficiency
Building Efficiency
Fuel Switch

15.4

Energy Service demand

8.6

Coal + CCS

20.4

Emissions

67%

40
61.1

30
20
10
10.202005

2035 BaU

Industry Sector
2035 BAU

Passenger Transport Sector

2035 SS

14161214Index 2005 = 1Index 2005 =12005

10864

EnergyDemand640

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Passenger
Demand2035 SS80
GHG Emissions

2035 BAU

102
Energy Demand

2005

122
Output (Bn INR)

2035 LCS

GHGEmissions

Primary Energy and Carbon Price
Energy Mix in 2050
1,600
Total Energy DemandBase
1,200
LCS_SS

Base2825

LCS_CT

2945

LCS_SS

2207

800

400

Carbon Price
250
0

CoalOilGas

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewable
200

Price (US $/tCO2)

Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe)(Mtoe )LCS_CT

150

2OC Conventional
Mitigation Scenario

100

2OC Sustainibility
Scenario

50

Base Scenario
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

02010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Technology learning curve
1.2Hydrate
Biomass-Ethanol
IGCC
IGCC-Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Vehicle
Poly-GenerationSolar Thermal PowerPVIndex, 2005=1

10.8
0.60.40.202005

20202030
Year

2050

4th Generation Nuclear
Off Shore WindOn Shore Wind
Biomass Power
Advanced NGCC

No.
128 key technologies in theenhanced low carbon
scenario in China

SectorIndustry
technology

23

4Transport

567
8
9

Building

1011
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1920
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Powergeneration

TechnologyHigh
efficiency
equipment

Description
Noteenergy High efficiency furnace, Nearlyinkiln, waste heat recovery marketsystem,high efficiency
process
technologies,
advanced electric motorNewmanufacture
process technology
for cement and steel
CCS
In cement, steel making,refinery,
ethylene
manufacture
Super high efficiency Advanced diesel
hybriddiesel vehicle
engineElectric car
Fuel cell car
Highefficiency 30%
higherenergyaircraftefficiency
Bio‐fuel aircraft
Super high efficiency With COP>7
air‐conditioner
LED lighting
In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot
energy systemwater and space heating
Heat pumps
MatureHighisolation
MaturebuildingHighefficiency
Matureelectric appliance
before 2030
IGCC/Poly‐With efficiency above 55%
Generation
IGCC/Fuel cell
With efficiency above 60%On shore Wind
MatureOff shore wind
Maturebefore 2020
Solar PV
Solar Thermal

Generation
4thNuclear
Advanced NGCC
With efficiency above 65%
Biomass IGCC
CCS
inpowergeneration
Alternative fuels Second generation
bio‐ethanol
Bio‐diesel
Vehicles, ships, vessels
Grid
Smart grid
Circulating
Recycle,reuse,tecnologies
reducing
materialuseTechnology Roadmap

Ultraperformance
air-conditioningPopularization Rate: 100%

Advanced
Solar Water
heater/heating
Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction

Investment Demand of Energy Industry
10000

8000

A
hundred 6000
millionBase scenario
Policy scenario

4000200002000

2005

2010
Year

2020

2030

Technology roadmap and perspective•

Technology in sight could lead us to low carbon
future(2℃ target )•If there is new technology coming out, there will be more
promising future, such as bio-technologies, geothermaltechnologies, and space technologies etc.

15

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
50

100

150

200

300

Decrease ofenergy demand2050(Scenario B)
Residential

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
1002000(Actural)

Coal

300

400

Biomass
GasBiomass50070% CO2 cutby 2050
600

Gas

Nuclear

2050(Scenario B)
Oil200Oil2050(Scenario A)

Coal

400

40% demand reductions

2050(Scenario A)

Industrial

350

Trans. Prv.
Residential
Trans. Frg.
Commercial

Industrial

2000(Actual)250

low-carbon energy

Solar and Wind
Nuclear

Hydro

Solar and WindJapanCO2 emissions [MtC]

A dozen actions
make it possible
to reduce 70% CO2emissions by 2050

A Dozen Actions

1. Comfortable and Green Built
Environment
Residential/commercial 2. Anytime, Anywhere350
Appropriate Appliances
3. Promoting Seasonal Local
300
Food
Industrial
250
4. Sustainable Building Materials
5. Environmentally Enlightened
200
Business and IndustryTransportation
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
150
7. Pedestrian Friendly City-70%to1990
Energy100
Designsupply
8. Low-Carbon Electricity
50Japan
9. Local Renewable Resources
0for Local Demand
10. Next Generation Fuels
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
11. Labeling to Encourage Smartand Rational Choices
Cross-sector
12. Low-Carbon Society
LeadershipJapanJapan
Backcasting model can show
optimized pathways towards LCS
8
Early Investment
Scenario A
can reduce cost andenhance energy efficiency
of countermeasuresAdditional investment [Tril. JPY]

6420‐2

Ene: Fuel saving
Ene: Additional fixed investment
Trp: Fuel saving
Trp: Additional fixed investment
Ind: Fuel saving
Ind: Additional fixed investment
Res: Fuel saving
Res: Additional fixed investment
Total‐4‐6‐82000

2005

2010

2015

2020

and gain multi-benefits
e.g. energy security
business power
comfortable live space
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
walkable city, happy life!

18

Shiga prefecture shows visions androadmaps for 50% CO2 reductions by2030

Shiga

Environmental targets for 2030
z Reduction of GHG emissions by halfz Reduction of pollutant load flows into the lake by half for theconservation of water quality
z Reduction of landfill waste by 75%

Asian LCS Study (2009)19

Japan LCS research project andJapanese CC policy
1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon
Society (LCS) -Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by
2050 below 1990 level-”¾ May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50”
to reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050
¾ June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target ofJapanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050
2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs”¾ July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving aLow-carbon Society”
3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020”(including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)¾ September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the year of2020 target as 25%.

Japan

New Japan’s Mid-term Target
Japan’s mid-term target was announced by New PrimeMinister Hatoyama on September 22nd, 2009. The target is25 percent reduction fromthe 1990 level by 2020
New Midterm target

Old Midterm target

Kyoto target

Target Year

2020

2020

2008 - 2012

Base Year

1990

2005(1990)

1990

15(8)%

0.6%

-3.8%

-1.6%

Domestic reduction
Carbon sinks
Credits

New Prime Minister
Hatoyama 鳩山由紀夫

Totally25%*Japan’s Kyoto target (6% reduction) includes carbon sinks
and credits through the Kyoto mechanisms.

Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050
350

Hop

CO2 emissions [MtC]

300

Kyoto Protocol
during 2008-2012(Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)

250

Step

200

25% in 2020

150(incl. credit?）

100500Japanese
Lessons

2050, 80% in 2050Japan

2000

2010

Low-Carbon
Asia
Jump

2020

2030

2040

2050

Japan

Low-Carbon Asia: Scenarios and Insights
Japan, India, Ahmedabad, Jilin, Iskandar, Shiga, Kyoto

NIES

AIM, IIM, ERI, UTM, LBERI, MHIR, KU, NIES

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/Supplement

25

CO2 Emission in China
4000
3500
3000

Mt‐C

2500
Baseline

2000

Policy

1500

ELC

1000
500
02000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario

Hydro
Nuclear

250000Wind off shore
Wind on shore
Biomass IGCC

200000

Biomass Direct
Solar Thermal
Solar PV

10MW

150000Oil
NGCCN.Gas

100000PFBC
IGCC-Fuel Cell
IGCC-68%

50000

IGCC-20%02000

US-Critical
2005

2010

2020
Year2030

2040

2050

Super Critical
Large Coal Unit
Samll Coal27