MEXICOTOWARD LCS

Dr. Edmundo de Alba A.
Climate Change Adviser
National Institute of Ecology, Mexico
edealba@ine.gob.mx

Workshop
Low Carbon Society(LCS) ScenarioDevelopment

MEXICO (some figures)
Mexico is the largest Latin American economy. 103 million
inhabitants at 2005.
The 8th economy within the OECD countries (but thesecond lowest in per capita)
World Bank’s: 10th world economy (but the 80th in percapita in the world, >$6000/pc) .
Mexico is the 7th country in commercial exchange within
the World Trade Organization (2005, WTO)
Services constitute 68% of the economy, industry 28%
and the primary sector 4%.

MEXICO EMISSION INVENTORIES
According to the 1996 inventory, CO2 emissions
added to 514.0 Tg (74% of the total for all GHGs).
Place in the world: 14th in total emissions and17th in CO2 per capita (3,460 kg/capita 1996).
1988 Emission Inventory partial aspects:
Energy related: 350.4 Tg (fix, area sources andtransport.
Combustion: 245.8 Tg (fix and area sourcesonly).
2002 Inventory (preliminary): Combustion: 350Tg

Percentage emissions CO2 equivalent

LCS in Mexico (1)No present specific policy has been established to
explicitly lower the carbon content of the economy

But correlated measures have been taken to
save energy and mitigate carbon emissions

Policies to:•Lower energy intensity of economy•Substitute of fuel oil to gas for combustion•Energy saving (Strong campaign at Government,industry, transport, households)•Incentives for the use of renewable energy•Progressive energy price adjustments

LCS in Mexico (2)Correlated measures

Policies to:•Lessen loses of energy in transformation atrefineries and gas plants•Lessen losses at transmission anddistribution of electric energy•Reduction of energy waste (30% last year, inflaring, transport, distribution and stocking)•Industrial use of alternate fuels, including useof waste.
•Larger International Cooperation in Climate
Change (Bilateral MoUs, CDM, UNFCCC, IPCC)

ENERGY SECTOR
The energy intensity has drop at an average rateof 1.3% since 1995.
Kj/produced $peso

ENERGY SECTOR SCENARIOS, MEXICO
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY PRODUCES A TEN YEARSSCENARIO BASED ON THE PLANNING OF THE
NATIONAL ENERGY ENTREPRISES (PEMEX AND CFE)
THE LAST AVAILABLE IS TO 2014 (www.energia.gob.mx)
SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE YEARS 20202030 FOR THE COUNTRY (between them):Energy Ministry, Renewable energy, 2030
INE- SEMARNAT, 2030
Energy Research Center, UNAM, Electric Sector, 2030.
SENER-IEAA-UNAM, 2025
International Energy Outlook, DoE-USA, 2025
World Energy Outlook, 2030
Asia Pacific Energy Research Center, 2020

ENERGY SECTOR SCENARIOS, MEXICOOTHER MODELS USED BY THE
MINISTRY OF ENERGYSTAIR-MEEEM
LEAPBRUS II-M
DECADESENPEPMOEEMAELECTRICITY GENERATIONGasification policy, Fuel oil substitution, avoided emissions:
4.5 Tg CO2 from 1991 to 2000
At 2010 projected abatement: 641Gg per year due togasification.

ENERGY SECTOR
Mexican Law on Renewable Energy for
Dec 2013

Geothermal:

3,185 GWh/y with 428 MWe (85%)

Wind energy: 3,000 GWh/y with 980 MWe (35%)
Biomass:

3,000 GWh/y with 430 MWe (80%)

Minihydo:

3,000 GWh/y with 980 MWe (35%)

Solar energy:

562 GWh/y with 320 MWe (20%)

ENERGY SECTOR
Example: International Energy Outlook
IEO 2025 MEXICO
Average annual growth PIB (%)
PIB 1012 US$ (1997)
Average annual growth Primary Energy demand (%)
Primary Energy consumption (Ej)
Oil consumption 106 b/d(assumes total production of 4.7 x 106 b/d)
Hydrocarbons dependency (%)

LowMed.

HighExample: Mexico Projected emissions to 2025
IEA
Emissions projetées 2025
Millions de Téq Carbone

Emissions en 2000

Source : bases AIE (CO2 de combustibles fossiles) et POLES (autres gaz). Projections n’incluant pas
les changements d’usage des sols.

ENERGY SECTOR Scenarios for 2030
www.sener.gob.mx

Internal Primary Energy Demand for 2030

years

ENERGY SECTOR Scenarios for 2030
www.sener.gob.mx

Scenarios for Renewable
Energy Demand to 2030
(With and without Firewood )ENERGY SECTOR
To the year 2050 only one scenario is beendevelopedThe WEC methodology is been use to favor aLess Government Engagement trajectory andMore Integration Cooperation, in comparison withother Policy Scenarios