COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario AnalysisDecember 3, 2005 Montreal

Low Carbon Scenariosfor India to 2050

P.R. Shukla (shukla@iimahd.ernet.in)Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA)

Population

Drivers of Future Emissions
2.5

Conventional Drivers

High
2Medium

Population in billions• Population• Economic Growth• Energy Resources

Low
1.5

10.5

• Technologies

01950

Economic Growth
50 year CAGR

100 year CAGR

9020002050

2100

Emerging Drivers for DevelopingCountries

High5.56%

704.5%• Transition Processes (Lock-ins)

60
50

Medium 4 %4.91 %

4030

Low 3.5%

4.71%

20

• International Labor Markets• Human Capital

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

02010

102000GDP index (2000=1)80• Knowledge Flows• Governance (Risks, Investments)

Indian Emissions Scenarios
Market integration

Decentralization

Fragmented

IA1

IA2Globalization
High Growth

Mixed Economy

8100

IB1
SustainableDevelopment

Self Reliance

6300

Modeling Framework

AIM/Material
Consolidation GEMA
Productivity

IA27200

Top-down Models

SGM
GlobalEnergy
Prices

AIM/Trend

ERB/Mini-CAM

Bottom-up Models

Regionalprojections
PowerSector LPPrices,GDP
ANSWER
MARKAL
End-useDemandDemandProjection
SectorDemandTechnology Share

EnergyBalances

CO2 Emissions Projections for India

IB25400

IA14500
IA1T3600

IB12700

900
2000

Emissions Scenarios
Technology
Specifications
AIM/Local

Local/Sector
Models

Projections ofLocal Emissions

GIS Model
Inventory
Assessment

IB21800
Stochastic
MARKAL

AIM/End-Use

CO2 Emissions (MT)GovernanceCentralizati
onIntegrated

HealthImpactAssessment

2020

2040 2050 2060

2080

2100

Indian Emissions: Equity and Cost-effectiveness
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
184IA2IPCC A2 Scenario
Ton of Carbon Dioxide/Person

3IA1IB22IB1115Annex II

12Annex I excl.
Annex II

9World6Non-Annex(Rest)
INon-Annex(Asia)
I

30
2000

02020

2040

2060

2080

2100

1990

2010

2030

2050

2070

2090

Mitigation Supply-curve from India 2005-2035)
60
Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)

Per capita emissions (CO2)

Indian Scenarios

50
40
30
20
100

12

34

5Carbon Mitigation (billion ton)67

Technologies in Scenarios
Conventional Technology Paths: Include
significant endogenous technological change

Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear Fission
Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks
Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure4500

Frozen Technology

CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

3750

3000

IA2Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas

IB2
IA1

Nuclear (Thorium), Carbon-free hydrogen

IA1T

Information highways, High speed trains
Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

2250

IB1
Push for renewable energy & recycling

1500

Renewable
Bikeway,
Advanced
Energy Technologies
car sharing system
Substitution of transport by IT

750
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Dematerialization, Material substitutions
Sustainable habitats & land-use practices

Stabilization Induced Low Carbon Transition• Type of endogenous development pathmatters to quantity and cost of mitigation

Indian Emission Scenarios & Cost-effective
550ppmv mitigation trajectory

Carbon Emissions (MT)
CarbonEmissions (MT)

1800
1800

IA2Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon

1600
1600
1400
1400

IB2

1200
1200

IA11000
1000

IA1T
IB1

800
800
600
600
400
400

550 ppmv

200
200
2000
2000

2020
2020

2040
2040

2060
2060

2080
2080

2100
2100

550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Induced Energy/ Technology
Transition in India in A2 Scenario• Cost-effective Stabilization, e.g. at 550
ppmv level, would require mitigation inIndia even in case of low endogenousemissions scenarios• Low endogenous emissions trajectorywould result from technology innovations
and sustainable actions• High economic growth does not mean highemissions• There is no silver bullet

Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
WindSolar
Biomass
Hydro
NuclearGas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission• Need to develop portfolio of technologies
2000
2500

1600
2000

1500
1200

1000
800

550 PPMV

500
40001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

• Significant stabilization induced transitionsin the second half of 21st century• Stabilization induced technological change
would impose sizable GDP losses• Technology & financial transfers are vitalfor a cost-effective and fair stabilization
regimeClimate Goal

Economic/social Indicator

Economic/social Indicator

National Development Targets

Aligning Development and Climate

Climate Quality

Technology &InstitutionalInnovations

Climate Quality

Aligning Development & Climate Actions to Gain Multiple Dividends

Indian Examples• Air Quality and GHG Mitigation• Energy Security and GHG Mitigation• South-Asia Regional Energy and Economic Cooperation and Climate• Infrastructure Investment and Climate Risks

Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation
780%
Percentage of Primary Energy

SO2 Emissions

Million Ton

6A2 ScenarioEmission

543Frozen SO2 Control Policies210 1995

Million Ton of Carbon

800

2005

2015

With BAU SO2 Control Policies

1995

2005

2015

Biomass
40%
Coal
Oil

20%

Nuclear
0%
1953

1960

1970

1980

GasHydro

1990

2002

Energy Security: How choices matter to climate?

With Carbon Price @$5/ton of CO2

200

50 years of Primary Energy Transitions in India

60%

2035

A2 Scenario
Emissions

40002025

Carbon Emissions

600

Energy Security and GHG Mitigation

2025

2035

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)
Mitigation Regime

Co-benefits

SO2 mitigation alone

Little carbon
mitigation

Joint Mitigation: CO2 mitigation@ $5/ton & same SO2 target

Joint mitigation costs$400 Million less•Domestic Coal – High Emissions•

Nuclear Fission – Carbon Free, Safety Issues•

Wind – Limited Potential, Supply stability•

Solar – High upfront cost, Supply stability, Storage•

Bio-fuels Ethanol – Food Security, Water Stress Bio-Diesel – Land Restoration, Employment

Indian Bio-diesel Mission
 Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects• Crop: Jatropha Curcas• 400,000 hectares of land
• Participation by Oil Companies
 Phase II (2007-2012)• Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel• Production target 1.2 MT of oil/ hectare

South-Asia Energy Cooperation

Infrastructure and Climate

ArabianSea

Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

Benefit (Saving)$ Billion% GDP

Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

Energy60 Exa Joule

321

0.87

CO2 Equiv.

5.1 Billion Ton

28

0.08

SO250 Million Ton

100.03

Total

359

0.98

Spillover Benefits:• 16 MW additional Hydropower• Flood control• Lower energy prices would enhancecompetitiveness of regional industries

Probability of Occurrence

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change

Present limate
CMore number ofdays with >200
mm rainfall

Less numberofdays with >200mm rainfall

Very highnumber of days
with >200 mmrainfall

Future Climate
Light andspread-over rain

Number of days with> 200mm rainfall

Heavy andconcentrated rain

Conclusions•

Strategies for low carbon future should begin with shaping
endogenous development path•

Stabilization would require mitigation even in low endogenousemission scenarios•

Achieving cost-effective global transition to low carbon futurewould call for substantial mitigation and adaptation actions in
Developing Countries•

Stabilization would significantly alter energy system•

Policies and measures for achieving “National Sustainable
Development Goals” provide climate friendly opportunities•

Aligning development and climate actions would accrue multiple
dividends from co-benefits/spillovers and reduce ‘climate burden’