Scenarios for a low carbon energy
system in Germany
Christoph Erdmenger
Head of Section I 4.2
Energy Policy and Supply Technologies

UNEP Workshop, Dessau, 19.4.06

Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Introduction and Overview• Overview• Philosophy of scenario work
• Overview: Long term energy scenarios in Germany• Longterm energy scenario Germany - one example- Targets- Methodology- Necessary steps- Major findings- Open questions and necessary in depth analysis• Conclusions
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in GermanySelected Current Scenario Studies For Germany
Long experience of long term energy in scenarios in GermanyFirst scenarios in the early 1980’s (nuclear extension path)
Business as usual projections (no GHG-reduction goals):• Ministry of Trade: Energy Predictions (by Prognos/EWI, 1999, 2002, 2005)
Climate protection scenarios (GHG reduction by 40%/2050 and 80%/2050):• Parliamentary Commission : Long term energy scenarios for the German„Sustainable Energy supply“ (Prognos/Wuppertal Institut/IER, 2002)• Environmental Agency: Climate Policy scenarios for 2020/2030(ÖI/DIW/FZJ/ISI: 2003)• Environmental Ministry/Environmental Agency: Increasing the share ofrenewable energies within an overall climate protection scenario(DLR/Wuppertal Institut/ifeu 2004)• Scientific network group „Modelling experiments“ (1999-2005) - different tasks
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Institutes working on Scenario presented here
Key partners•DLR-Institute for Technical Thermodynamics, Stuttgart
Department System Analysis und Technology Assessment;• IFEU-Institute for Energy- and Environmental Research, Heidelberg;• Wuppertal-Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy;• Centre of Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research, Stuttgart
Framework•Based on work for the Parliamentary Commission•Backbone is a energy system simulation model (not a energy economicsmodel), based on expert input rather than on optimisation calculations•Multiple research projects on restrictions and potentials for renewableenergy in Germany

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Philosophy of Scenario Work• Different from predictions• Ask “what happens if ….”• Based on a consistent set of assumptions which should be outlined
transparently• Purposes:- to deal with future uncertainties- to identify the range of future paths (including the branching points)- to describe the major impacts and dangers of those paths- to gain more experience about the various interactions in the system- to enable an elaborate discussion about suitable policy and technology
strategies following defined targets

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Overview on results- energy related emissions only -Mio. t CO2

1.000

800
Governmental
declaration 2002:- 40% in 2020

Commitment- 25% in 2005

600Kyoto-target
2008-2012

40020001990

Recommendations
Enquete; IPCC:- 80% in 2050

1990-2003

2000

Referencecase2010

ScenarioNat. conservation

2020

Sources: DIW -report 10/2004; reduction path: BMU 2004

2030

Reduction
targets

2040

2050
oeko\co2deu.pre;3.1.04

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Strategy elements for climate protection
awareness
energyconsumption

renewableenergyrational useof energy

substitution
coal to gas
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Determination of technical potentials of renewable energy

Assumptions:Hydropower
Potential

Present use

Wind, onshore

Biomass:
100 % stationary use
with 75% cogeneration.
(optional 210 TWh/yr
biofuels = 27% ofpresent consumption)

Wind, offshore
PhotovoltaicBiomass
Geothermal

Geothermal electricity:
Lower value with heatuse in cogeneration,
upper value without
restrictions

Share of elctr.
in 2003, %Biomass
solar collectors
Geothermal(hydrothermal)
Share of heating
fuel in 2003, %050

100

150
200
TWh/yr (%)

250

300

350

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Learning curves are crucial for long term scenarios

Stromgestehungskosten, EUR/kWh

0,16

Cost ofelectricity
generation
inCt/kWh

2003: 0,186 EUR/kWh

2003: 0,71 EUR/kWh

WasserWind

0,14

Photovoltaik

0,12Geothermie
Stromimport

0,10

Biomasse
Biogas0,08

Mittelwert
BASIS I

0,06
oeko/kost2; 2.12.03

0,04
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Comparison of technological options in the time scale

Electricity
costs incost,
ct/kWhelectricity
generation
ct/kWh108

Promotion oftechnologicalinnovations

Cost of CO2-emissions, EUR/t40 - 60

156

Subsidies forfossil energies

004

20
2000

FossilFossilFossil +Coal-plants New REN low prices medium prices emission trade CO2-capture plants only

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
oeko/ko-verg4; 2.2.04

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Electricity generation - substantial system changes needed- Scenario NatureConservationPlus I 600

569

Importrenewables

Electricity generation in TWh

534
495

500

489

490

504

Photovoltaic
GeothermalWind
offshore
Windonshore

400

Hydropower300

Biomass,biogasCHP, fossil200

Gas cond.
Coal cond.

100
0Nuclearenergyoeko\stromer2; 6.1.04

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

14,3
5,721,2
12,829,525,735,940,040,248,1

39,9 % CHP incl. biomass
55,6 % REN excl. biomasse-CHP
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

5-step strategy for implementing REN

Up to 2010: „ENTRY“ supported by energy policy measures, based on target
specifications and specific instruments (e.g. REN Energy Rescources Act)

2010 – 2020: „STABILIZATION“ of growth with gradual incorporation of RENin general climate protection instruments (emission trade; CO2-taxes etc.)

2020 – 2030: Complete „ESTABLISHMENT“ of all REN technologies and incip
use of low-cost REN potentials throughout Europe and the Mediterranean region

2030 – 2050: Gradual „DOMINANCE“ of REN in all energy supply sectors andstarting use of hydrogen from renewables

After 2050: Progressive „REPLACEMENT“ of fossil energy sources anestablishment of an energy economy entirely based on renewable energy sources

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Energy Efficiency improvements
512500527

529

6 .0 0 0519

505

5 .5 2 65 .5 2 9Haushalte

481" E ffiz ie n z "5 .3 6 24 .6 9 1

Verkehr

300

200Electricity
TWh

100

0

oeko/stromver;3.1.04

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Endenergieeinsatz [PJ/a]

GHD

400

P ro z e s s w ä rm e
G H D + Haush.
P ro z e s s w ä rm e
In d u s trie

4 .0 0 0

R a u m w ä rm e
G H D + In d .
R a u m w ä rm e
H a u s h a lte

3 .0 0 0o e k o \w a e rm e -2 ; 3 .1 .0 4

2 .0 0 0

Heat (PJ)

1 .0 0 002050

W a rm w a s s e ra lle

5 .0 0 8

5 .0 0 0

Industrie

Endenergie Strom, [TWh/a]5 .7 9 7"Effizienz"

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

3000
2 .8 38"E ffizienz"

2 .7 57

2 .7 46

2 .63 9G üterverkehrSchiene, Schiff

2.48 52500

Endenergie, [ PJ/a ]2.3 00G üterverkehr
StraßeFlugverkehr

2000

Ö ffentlicher
Personenverkehr
M ot. Individualverkehr

1500

oeko/verk ehr2; 3.1.04

1000

TransportFuels (PJ)

5000

„Efficiency“compared to Ref.:(in % to 2000)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Electr. =- 450 PJ (26%)
Heat=- 1680 PJ (36%)
Transp. =- 1170 PJ (41%)
Final Energy = - 3300 PJ (36%)

2050

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Development of primary energy demandPrimary energy demand in PJ
Business
aPrimary energy, PJ/yr

14.000Targets 2050:

s usual12.000Substantial increasein efficiency = 35%

10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000

Substantial growth ofRenewables = 35%

2.000
02000
Hydropower,other REN
Coal2010

2020

2030

2040

Biomass

Windenergy

REN import

Oil

Naturalgas

Increased
efficiency

2050
Nuclearenergy- 75% CO2 (2000)

oeko/pev-bas2.pre;8.12.03

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Additional costs seem to be acceptable• Cost is hard to predict, because depends on various factors• Fossil fuel and CO2 prices• Price estimates for technologies implemented• Learning curves of technologies• Assumptions on profitability requirements for investments• Assumptions on non-monetary hurdles• Assumptions on economic development, mobility needs, etc• Overall result for 80% scenario: appr. 4 Bio €/year (average 2001-2050)• 0,2-0,6 Trillion€/50 years compared to 19,2 Trillion €/ 50 years

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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in GermanyConclusions• Climate protection is feasible from technology side of view andimplementation can be realized by acceptable costs• Adaptation is no alternative but due to already caused damages of theclimate to a certain extent unavoidable• Climate protection can be accompanied in particular in “first mover”countries with side benefits (e.g. new innovations, employment effects)• Climate protection is connected with significant structural changes andrequires a sophisticated and reliable long term energy and climate
policy• Policy makers should be aware of the high time constants for structuralchanges in the energy sector (operation time of power plants, creationof new infrastructures) - starting right now with actions is without
alternative• Energy scenarios can help to find the right way for action
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Scenarios for a low-carbon energy system in Germany

Heading for a sustainable energy system in Germany

christoph.erdmenger@uba.deThank you for your attention!

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