Main Report

Global Environmental Research Fund (GERF/S-3-1)
Japan-UK Joint Research Project “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society (LCS)”a Dozen of Actions towards
Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)

Please see “Appendix” to this main report for details of each action.

May 2008“2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario teamNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES),
Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University,and Mizuho Information and Research Institute.

This is a tentative translation of the report originally written in Japanese “低炭素社会に向けた 12 の方策”.
The original report and its press release on May 22, 2008 can be downloaded from http://2050.nies.go.jp/.

Principal contents
This report proposes a dozen of actions to be taken in Japan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by
70% by 2050 from the emission level in 1990. These actions should be taken without delay in orderto create low-carbon society in Japan.
1. “2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario team published a report entitled “Japan Low
Carbon Society Scenarios: Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below
1990 level” in February 2007, in which it stated that Japan has the technological potential toreduce the emissions of CO2, which is the major greenhouse gas, by 70% by 2050 from theemission level in 1990 while satisfying the required amount of energy services. The report alsomentioned that to achieve the goal, the Japanese government must take strong initiatives insharing the goals of a low-carbon society, establishing comprehensive measures and long-termplans, reforming industrial structures, and funding infrastructures to encourage private
investment in energy-saving technologies and R&D of low-carbon energy technologies.
2. Based on analyses of scenarios, innovations such as technologies and reform programs forsocial systems have been studied from the viewpoint of when and how such innovations shouldbe implemented and what kind of measures and policies are effective to realize them. A dozenof actions are proposed and their effectiveness has been studied with the use of an assessment
model. The actions are expected to cover the entire 70% reduction goal. Cross-sectional and/or
additional measures will enable emissions to be reduced further, but efforts in the energy
demand sectors are particularly important. The 70% reduction will be shared as follows: 13 to
15% in industry, 21 to 24% in buildings, 19 to 20% in transportation, and 35 to 41% in energy
sectors.
3. The effects of measures and policies undertaken in a particular sector for achieving a
low-carbon society also help carbon reduction in other sectors. For example, well insulatedhouses and the use of solar energy are direct and effective low-carbon measures for the
residential and commercial sectors (including the building sector). Low-carbon measures taken
by primary energy suppliers, such as increased use of renewables, will also contribute to theCO2 reduction in the building sector. To expand the use of renewables, it is also necessary to
encourage their use in the end-use sectors. Publicity and environmental education underpin allmeasures. There are also various technological and social barriers to achieving reduction goals,
and it takes time to remove these barriers. Therefore proper steps must be taken in a duesequence. In this report, an action denotes a set of technological measures, social system reform
programs and stimulatory policies that are combined appropriately by also considering mutual
relationships.
4. In this report, economic methods that are cross-sectorally effective, such as a carbon tax andemissions trading, are not included as independent actions. The addition of economic methods
will enhance the effects of the dozen of actions proposed here. Social infrastructures, such as
public works and the capital market, are assumed to be properly in place.
5. The actions proposed here were prepared based on the results of studies by about 60 researchers
in the project and opinions of experts. The scenario team has a responsibility to summarize thisreport. It is hoped that the report will contribute to drawing up policies and measures for
low-carbon societies.

i

1.

Low-carbon societies in 2050: CO2 emissions can be reduced by 70%
On February 15, 2007, “2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society” scenario team mentioned in its report

entitled “Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios: Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by
2050 below 1990 level” that Japan has the technological potential to reduce the emissions of CO2,
which is the major greenhouse gas, by 70% by 2050 from the emission level in 1990 while satisfying
the required amount of energy services in either of the two possible socioeconomic scenarios(Scenario A: active / Scenario B: slow).
Table 1

Two socioeconomic scenarios (Scenarios A and B)

Scenario A: Vivid

Scenario B: Slow

Technology-driven

Nature-oriented

Urban/Personal

Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production/recycle

Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally

Comfortable and Convenient

Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth

1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa

Further investigations were conducted for the purpose of setting reduction goals, formulating
methods for designing low-carbon society scenarios, and estimating roles of technologies related toenergy, city, transportation and ICT. In February 2008 a part of the study results was publishedentitled “Vision and achieving scenarios of a low-carbon society (in Japanese)” (Global Environment,
Vol. 12, No. 2, 2007, Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies).
In Scenarios A and B, the GDP per capita is estimated to increase by 2.7 and 1.6 fold, while thepopulation will decrease by factors of 0.74 and 0.8, leading the GDP to increase by 2.0 and 1.3 fold,respectively, from the corresponding levels in 2000. There are several movements that will reduceenergy service demands such as shifts to service industries, saturation of number of vehicles, andchange of industrial structures through decrease of investment in social infrastructures. Thus, thetotal energy demand for services will be almost equal to that in 2000 (Table 1, Figure 1).
Various innovations, such as well insulated buildings, city structures where people can live within1

walking distance, and the development and spread of energy-saving devices will enable energy
demand to be reduced by about 40% while satisfying the service demands. It is shown that CO2
emissions can be reduced by 70% from the emission level in 1990 by implementing low-carbon
measures by energy suppliers, such as increasing the share of solar, wind power and otherrenewables and appropriate use of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (Figures 1 and 2).

GDP

CO 2 Emission =Population

× Population ×CO 2 change
x 0.3

Population
change×=

Figure 1=

GDP

GDP per capita
Demand cut bychange× Servicizing

x 0.8

Total about 70%
reduction of CO2
emissions

Service demandx 2.7

Total service demand isapproximately same as 2000
level (about 0% reduction)

x 0.4

+

Energy demand

CO2 Emission

Improvement

Fuel shift to low
carbon mix

x 0.7

x 0.4

× Service demand × Energy demand
× of energy eff. ×[Energy demand sector]
About 40% reduction
by efficient appliances, insulatedbuilding, compact city etc.

+

[Energy supply sector]
About 30% reduction
by nuclear, renewables,
CCS etc.

Relationships among components for achieving 70% CO2 emission reduction from the1990 level (The ratio indicates the approximate value in 2050 to the value in 2000, Scenario A)

38
9
7
28

36

17
41

77

Industry

10
13

Residential &commercial

90

6
1
24

Transportation

Reductionof demand
Improvement ofenergy intensityof end‐use

2050 CO2 Emission

36
CCS

Energy supply

Energy demand sector
Energy supply sector

621

Improvement of Improvement ofcarbon intensity carbon intensityof energy supplyof end‐use

70% reduction

2000 CO2 Emission

1990 CO2 Emission

Changeof activity

Change of activity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand perhousehold, Increase of office floor (increase)・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households,
Increase of public transportation (decrease)

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production
equipment

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction ofservice demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation
・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment
・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All‐electric house
・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
・Modal shift to public transportation service
・Widespread use of motor‐driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel‐cell electric vehicle
・High efficiency freight vehicle
・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

Carbon Capture
Storage・Power generation without CO2 emission
・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

Figure 2 Combinations of actions for achieving 70% reduction by 2050 (Scenario A)
2.

Reduction effects of the dozen of actions for each sector
In order to achieve the goal of 70% reduction by 2050, innovations such as technologies andreform programs have been studied from the viewpoint of when and how such innovations should be2

implemented and what kind of measures and policies are effective to realize them (Figure 3). A
dozen of actions is proposed and their effectiveness has been studied.

Current society
Economic
activity

CO2

In order to achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, weinvestigated
Actions bind-which options should be selected,-when options should be introduced,
up these-how much of each option should be
options
introduced at each stage,
with reference of candidate options as prepared.

2050 Society
CO2

Economic
activity

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

BaU society

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

Technology,
infrastructure, institution,
management options

CO2

Economic
activity

CO2 Emission

70% reduction
targetLow carbon society
2000

2050

Figure 3 The role of actions towards low-carbon societies in 2050
Measures and policies undertaken in a particular sector for achieving a low-carbon society not
only affect that sector but also promote carbon reduction in other sectors. For example, wellinsulated houses and the use of solar energy are direct and effective low-carbon measures for the
residential and commercial sectors. Low-carbon measures taken by primary energy suppliers, suchas increased use of renewables, will also contribute to the CO2 reduction in the building. To expand
the use of renewables, it is also necessary to encourage their use in the end-use sectors. Widepublicity and environmental education underpin all measures. There are also various technologicaland social barriers to achieving reduction goals, and it takes time to remove these barriers. Therefore
proper steps must be taken in a due sequence. In this report, an action denotes a set of technologicalmeasures, social system reform programs and stimulatory policies that are combined appropriately
by also considering mutual relationships (Figure 3).
The model studies indicate the reduction potential in each sector. The effective measures andpolicies to realize such reduction potential are summarized as actions. A dozen of actions areformulated by taking into account the model results and experts interviews (Table 2).
Principal target fields of the actions are residential and commercial sector (1 and 2), agriculture
and forestry (3 and 4), industries (5), transportation sector (6 and 7), and energy (8, 9 and 10).
Actions 11 and 12 are cross-sectional actions.
In this report, economic methods that are cross-sectorally effective, such as a carbon tax andemissions trading, are not included as independent actions. The addition of economic methods will
add value effects and enhance the effects of the dozen of actions. Social infrastructures, such as
public works and the capital market, were assumed to be properly in place and improved.
3

Table 2

a Dozen of Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies

Name of Action

Explanation

1

Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

2

Anytime, Anywhere
Appropriate Appliances

3

Promoting Seasonal Local
Food
Sustainable Building Materials

Efficiently use of sunlight and energy
efficient built environment design.
Intelligent buildings.
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate
appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent
and release system resulting in improved
availability.
Supply of seasonal and safe low carbon
local foods for local cuisine
Using local and renewable buildings
materials and products.
Businesses aiming at creating andoperating in low carbon market.
Supplying low carbon and highvalue-added goods and services throughenergy efficient production systems.
Networking seamless logistics systems
with supply chain management, using
both transportation and ICT
infrastructure
City design requiring short trips andpedestrian (and bicycle) friendly
transport, augmented by efficient public
transport
Supplying low carbon electricity bylarge-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass)
fired plants
Enhancing local renewables use, such as
solar, wind, biomass and others.
Development of carbon free hydrogenand/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
Publicizing of energy use and CO2 costs
information for smart choices of low
carbon goods and service by consumers,
and public acknowledgement of suchconsumers
Human resource development forbuilding “Low-Carbon Society” andrecognizing extraordinary contributions.

45

Environmentally EnlightenedBusiness and Industry

6

Swift and Smooth Logistics

7

Pedestrian Friendly City
Design8

Low-Carbon Electricity

9

Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand
Next Generation Fuels

10

11

Labeling to Encourage Smartand rational Choices

12

Low Carbon Society
Leadership

Expected CO2 reductions
Residential sector:
56~48 MtC

Industrial sector:
30~35 MtC

Transportation sector:
44~45 MtC

Energy conversion sector:
95~81 MtC

Cross-sectional

The reductions in each sector are based on Scenario A and Scenario B, respectively.

4

52

77
Energy2050 CO2 Emission

36 supply
CCS sector
772Included inothers95 - 81<Scenario B>

●
●

●

●

●

●

21

□

●

●

●

●

4

Industry

●

24

42

●

13

13

●

●

●

●

14

38

●

●

●

●

16

9

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

5

28

●

●

●

●

●

23

17

●

●

●

●

77
+)

●

●

●
●

●
●

230

●

●
●

24

65

34

40

21
24

13
16

63

35
5
23

Trans‐
portation

62
Energysupplysector

82

34

40

40

40

+)
230

● : Sector in which actions contribute reduction directly: Sector in which actions contribute reduction indirectly.
□ : Sector in which reduction by actions is included under "Change of activity"

Figure 4

●

21
4

14
Residential &commercial

35

7

●

Changeof activity

Reductionof demand1

Improvement of
Improvement ofenergy intensity
carbon intensity
Energy demand sector

Trans‐
portation

0

1

Energy supply
sector60□

1

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

17

●

1

2050年
CO2排出量

Reductionof demand

Local Renewable Resources for Local
DemandEnergy demand sector
Improvement ofenergy intensity

Low‐Carbon Electricity

70% reduction

Pedestrian Friendly City Design

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Swift and Smooth Logistics

Energy supply sector

Environmentally Enlightened Businessand Industry

97

Residential &commercial

44 - 45

30 - 35 (+ α)

●

10

38

41
Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Sustainable Building Materials

2000 CO2 Emission
2000年CO
2 排出量

9Promoting Seasonal Local Food

1990 CO2 Emission
2000年CO2 排出量

8Low Carbon Society Leadership

7

Labeling to Encourage Smart andrational Choices

6

Next Generation Fuels

5

6 Change 6
1 of activity
24
1
10 Industry
35
13
24

28
36

4

Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate
Appliances

90

3

Comfortable and Green Built
Environment

6256 - 48<Scenario A>

21

1* Unit of number in the table is MtC.

Role of a dozen of actions to reduce CO2 emissions

Figure 4 shows the reduction effects of the dozen of actions. The relationships among ranges andthe estimated reductions in CO2 emissions from each sector for each scenario are shown. One action
contributes to reductions in two or more components and sectors, and reductions in a sector and in acomponent are the result of contributions of two or more actions. Possible reduction levels were
calculated not for each action but for each cross-sectional approach. The values were then used to
calculate the levels for energy supply and demand sectors, for each measure, such as changes inservices, improved efficiency, and improved carbon intensity, and for each sector such as industry,
residential and commercial, transportation, and energy conversion.
The total reduction value of 230 MtC corresponds to a 70% reduction from the emissions level in1990. The reduction levels in each sector are shown in the right column for each scenario.
Combinations of the dozen of actions results in reductions of 35 to 42 MtC in industry, 60 to 65 MtC
in residential and commercial, 52 to 62 MtC in transportation, and 68 to 96 MtC by energy
conversion. Thus, the 70% reduction will be shared as follows: 15 to 18% in industry, 26 to 28% inresidential and commercial, 23 to 27% in transportation, and 33 to 17% in energy conversion.
Improvement of carbon intensity in both energy supply and demand and improvement of energy
efficiency on the demand side will be especially effective. On the whole, efforts in the energy
demand side will be the key.

5

3.

Concept of Action
Figure 5 outlines components of Action.

1） Future Objectives: Desired social systems in 2050 are described here. Concrete figures for thetarget, such as CO2 emissions, technological levels, and penetration levels are indicatedquantitatively as much as possible.
2） Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps: Actions cannot be taken spontaneously; it takes
time to lay the foundations for establishing the actions first, then for the actions to gain public
acceptance and become rooted in society. There are also technological and social barriers to be
removed. Implementation time is needed to remove the barriers through various strategies,
including approaches, countermeasures and policies. These strategies should be executed in theproper sequence. There are some strategies that can and must be taken immediately. Other
strategies may need certain barriers to be removed before they can be implemented. There arecertain barriers that need continuous counteracting efforts.
3） Procedure of actions: The bottom part of the figure shows elements of both (1) and (2) withtimeline in the form of Gantt chart. Various actions, countermeasures and policies forovercoming the barriers, and their chronological implementation for achieving the goal are
shown in the lower part of the sheet.
Future images expected fromintroduction of each action are
described. Clear andquantitative targets are set
where possible.

Barriers to achieving the futureobjectives and the stepwise
strategies to overcome thosebarriers are described. The
main actors for each action
stated here are central andlocal governments if nototherwise specified.
When the actions of otherstakeholders can be crucial toachieve the future objectives,
their expected contributions
are mentioned here.

1.
1. Comfortable
Comfortable andand Green
Green Built
Built Environment
Environment
Future Objectives[Solar[Solar andandWind
WindUtilization
Utilization Design]
Design] Architectural
Architec turaltechnologies
technologiesandand designs
designsthatthat arearesuitable
suitable forforthethe climate
climate ofof eacheachregion,
region,using
usingpassive
passivedesign
design layout
layoutfor
for introducing
introducing
sunlight
sunlightand
andnatural
natural windwindinto
intothethebuilding,building,are
are widely
widelydisseminated.
disseminated. In
Inaddition,
addition,thethe individual
individual levels
levelsof
ofinsulation
insulationtechnologies,
technologies,screen
screentechnologies,
technologies ,ventilation
ventilation
technologies
technologieshave
havebeen
beenimproved
improveddrastically,
drastically,thereby
therebyenabling
enablingreduction
reduction ofofenergy
energyconsumption
consumptionwhile
whileretaining
retaining comfort
comfort within
withinresidences
residencesandand buildings.
buildings.
Consequently,
Consequently,thethedemand
demandfor
for energy
energyper
per householdhousehold will
will decline
decline bybyabout
about40%
40%fromfrom2000
2000levels;
levels;also,
also,thetheenergy
energydemand
demandperper unit
unitarea
areaofofnon-residential
non-residentialbuildingbuildingfloor
tallation offloorspace
space will
willdecrease
decreaseby
by40%.
40%.Furthermore,
Furthermore,for
for thethewalls
wallsandandroofroofinin eacheac hbuilding,building,ins
installation
ofsolarsolarwater
water heaters
heatersandand solar
solar power
power generators
generatorswill
will bebestandardized.
standardized.In
Inparticular,
particular,most
most ofof low
low riserise housing
housingwill
willbecome
become zero
zerocarbon
carbon residences
residencesthroughthroughthe
the combination
combinationof
ofhighhighinsulation,
insulation,passive
passivedesign,design,and
andsolarsolar
energyenergyuse.
use.
[Household[HouseholdFinance-friendly
Finance-friendlyEnvironmental
Environmental Efficiency]
Efficiency]For
Fornewly
newlybuilt
builtoror renovatedrenovatedbuildings,
buildings, reduction
reductionandand exemption
exemptionscheme
schemeof
ofrealrealestate
estate tax
taxandandloanloaninterest
interest
rates
ratesinin response
responseto
tocertification
certification results
resultsof
ofhouseholdhousehold environmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiency(CO2(CO2emissions
emissionsand
and energy
energyconsumption)
consumption) becomes
becomesavailable.
available.The
Theschemes chemeprovidesprovidesincentives
incentivesfor
forpurchasingpurchasingof
ofresidences
residenceswith
with highhighenvironmental
environmental efficiency.
efficiency.For
Forexisting
existingresidences,residences,low
low cost
costenvironmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiencyconsulting
consultingservices
servicesareareprovided.
provided.The
The services
servicesoffer
offeradvices
adviceson
onthe
thestructural
structuralalteration
alterationof
ofthe
thebuildingbuildingininorder
order toto enhanceenhanceenvironmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiencyand
andactactas
asan
an intermediaryintermediaryfor
foralteration
alterationexpense
expensediscountdiscountprograms
programsand
andfavorable
favorableloan
loaninterest
interestrates.
rates.As
Assuch,such,aa framework
frameworksystemsystemfor
for thetheentire
entiresocietysocietyto
toplaceplaceaa highhigh value
value onon thethelevellevelofofenvironmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiencyof
ofresidences
residencesisisininplace.
place.Therefore,
Therefore,even
evencitizens
citizenswith
withlowlowenvironmental
environmental awarenessawarenesschoose
chooseresidences
residenceswith
withsuperior
superior environmental
environmental
efficiency.
efficiency.
[Nurturing
er Skills;[Nurturingof
ofWorkWorkerSkills; Information
InformationTransmission]
Transmission]Designers
Designersand
and architects
architectswho
who arearehighly
highlyskilled
skilledin
inbondingbonding architectural
architectural designs
designsthat
thatmakemake use
useof
oflocallocal and
andregional
climate
and
the
use
of
leadingedge
equipmentarenurtured
in
each
area;
their
know-howwillbehanded
over
to
the
next
generation.
Moreover,long-life
regional climate and the use of leading edge equipment are nurtured in each area; their know-how will be handed over to the next generation. Moreover, long-lifebuildings
buildingssuch
such asas“200-year“200-yearhomes”
homes” have
havebecome
become widespread,widespread,limiting
limitingunnecessary
unnecessaryconsumption
c onsumptionof
ofresources
resourcesandand energy.
energy.

1

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps[Standardization[StandardizationPeriod]
Period] Currently,
Currently,atatthe
thetimetimeofofpurchasingpurchasingor
or contract
contractleasingleasingof
ofresidences
residencesandandbuildings,
buildings,since
sincethere
thereisisno
norequirement
requirementiningeneralgeneralfor
forthethepresentation
presentationof
ofinformation
information regarding
regardingenvironmental
environmental efficiency,
efficiency, thisthishashasnotnotbeenbeenananitemitemofofimportance.
importance.Also,
Also,even
eventoday,
today,althoughalthoughititisispossible
possible totoevaluate
evaluate thetheenvironmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiencyof
ofresidences
residencesandandbuildings,
buildings, thethenumbernumber of
ofpeople
people capable
capable ofofperforming
performing these
thesecomplex
complexcalculations
calculationshave
have notnotbeenbeen sufficient,sufficient,hinderinghinderingits
tablishment of
itswidespreadwidespreadpractice.
practice.Accordingly,
Accordingly, thetheproposed
proposedstrategy
strategypromotes
promotesthetheesestablishment
ofsimplified
simplifiedevaluation
evaluationmethod
methodfor
forbuildingbuilding efficiency
efficiencyaccording
accordingtotouse
usein
inconsultation
withexistingbuilding
evaluation
methods(CASBEE,
etc.)
andevaluation
methods
implementedin
Europeandothercountries.
At
the
same
consultation with exis ting building evaluation methods (CASBEE, etc.) and evaluation methods implemented in Europe and other countries. At the same time,
time,itit
continues
reduction efficiency.
efficiency.Furthermore,
Furthermore,lectures
lec turesfor
forcontinuesto
tomakemakeprogress
progresson
onnurturing
nurturing practitioners
practitionersfor
for thethediagnosis
diagnosisof
ofenergy-savingenergy-savingefficiency
efficiencyand
and CO
CO22reduction
craftsmen
craftsmen on
on buildingbuildingtechnology
technologywill
willbebeestablishedestablishedinin universities
universitiesand
andotherothereducational
educationalinstitutions,institutions, andandby
byorganizingorganizingin
ineacheac hregion
regiontraining
trainingclasses
classesand
andevents
eventsintendedintendedfor
for construction
construction workers,
work ers ,foundations
foundationswill
will bebe createdcreatedfor
for passing
passingon
on thethe knowledge
knowledge ofofenergy-efficientenergy-efficientbuildingbuildingtechnologies
technologiesand
anddesigns.
designs.
[Environmentalystem foraluation[Environmental Efficiency
EfficiencyLabelingLabelingIntroduction
IntroductionPeriod]
Period]AAlabelinglabelingssystem
for residences
residencesandandbuildings
buildingswill
willbebe commenced
commenced based
based onon thethe newly-developed
newly-developedev
evaluation
methods.
methods.Long-termLong-term energy-savingenergy-saving target
targetvalues
values(upward(upwardin
inincremental
incremental steps)
steps)will
willbebeset
setforfor eacheachtype
typeofofbuildingbuilding usage.
usage.Certification
Certificationandand registration
registrationof
oflabelinglabeling
will
will bebemandatory
mandatoryat
atthe
thetimetime ofofpurchasepurchaseforfor newly-built
newly-builtresidences,residences,atatthe
thetimetimeofofrenovation
renovationfor
for existing
existing buildings,
buildings,andand atat certain
certain intervals
intervalsfor
for leased
leasedandandbusinessbusinessbuildings.
buildings.ThoseThose failing
failingtotomeet
meetthethelowest-ranklowest-rankstandard
standardwill
willreceive
receive guidance
guidance toto attain
attainthe
the acceptable
acceptablestandard
standardvalues
valuesthroughthroughthe
the introduction
introduction ofof highhighefficiency
olar thermal
efficiencyequipment,
equipment,solar
solarpower
powergenerator,
generator,ssolar
thermal equipment
equipment andandso
so forth.
forth.In
Inaddition
addition toto thetheannualannual energy
energyconsumption
consumptionof
ofthe
the average
averagehouseholdhousehold andandCO2CO2emissions,emissions, thethe environmental
environmentalefficiency
efficiencylabels
labelswill
willinclude
include thetheeconomic
economicfigures
figuresfor
for thethebuildings
buildingssuch
suchasasthe
theaverage
average annual
annualenergy
energycost,
cost,enabling
enabling
comparisons. Furthermore,comparisonsof
ofinitial
initialinvestments
investmentsand
andrunningrunningcosts
costs.
Furthermore,throughthroughcombinationc ombinationof
oftax
taxbreaks
breaksandandlowlowinterest
interestfinancing
financingloans
loansthatthat correspondcorrespond to
tothe
the
environmental
efficiency
label,
incentives
willbeprovidedtoownersandusersofbuildings
toselectresidencesorbuildings
onalong-termbasis.
environmental efficiency label, incentives will be provided to owners and users of buildings to select residences or buildings on a long-term basis.

2

Contribution of Building Owners
Contribution of Architects, etc.

Standardization Period

Selection of residential buildings with high environmental efficiency.
Commission of low carbon design to architects and construction companies.
Development of low carbon architectural design methods. Investing for technology development
in insulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional worker sk ills.

Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period

Residential
Residentialhouseholdhouseholdenergy
energydemand：-40％
demand：-40％(from(fromFY2000
FY2000level)
level)
Building
Buildingfloor
floor area
areaenergy
energydemand：-40％
demand：-40％(from(from FY2000
FY2000level)
level)

Barriers

Complex
Complexenergyenergysavingsavingperformance
performance
metrics,
metrics,highhighcalculation
calculation costs,
costs,
insufficientinsufficientpersonnel
personnel

This section outlines thebarriers on the left side andpresents the strategies toovercome them in form of a bar
chart

InsufficientInsufficientincentives
incentivesfor
forchoosingchoosingenergyenergysavingsavingresidences
residencesandand buildings
buildings

Future O bjectives
Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving and CO2 reduction efficiencies

3

Solar and windutilization design

Establishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental efficiency of residences and buildings

The keywords that describe
future objectives arepresented. The details of eachkeyword are described in“Future Objectives” box above.

Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge of architectural technologies
Finance-friendly
environmental
efficiency

Introduction and expansion of residence and building labeling system for environmental efficiency (newbuilding, renovation, mandatory indication upon leasing)
Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest loan financing
based on the environmental efficiency label

Nurturing of worker
skills & informationtransmission

Establishment and review of long-term energy-saving standard targets for buildings.

2000

Indicators to measure theachievement of each action
are presented here.
Quantitative target are set
where possible.

2010

2020

Figure 5

2030

2040

2050

Each strategy is expressed ina solid bar and the length of
the bar indicates the timeschedule of the strategy. If a
strategy lacks continuity then it
is expressed as a sequence of
diamonds.

Components of Action

The dozen of actions are outlined as an appendix with one page dedicated to each action.

6

4.

Actions and their implications for homes and offices, transport and Industry
The effects of the dozen of actions for achieving low-carbon homes, offices, transport, andindustry were investigated. Not only the actions for directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions of asector, but also actions which induce CO2 reductions indirectly were investigated.
Actions in homes and offices
Many energy-consuming devices are used in homes and offices to make life and work more
comfortable and efficient. Such devices are a major source of CO2 emissions.
To reduce energy load sharply, houses and buildings need to be designed to prevent heat fromescaping and penetrating inside; solar heat and natural wind should be used for temperature controlof buildings, and solar power should support lighting. To encourage the construction and penetrationof such houses and buildings, policies should be implemented for reducing the economic burden on
their owners and systems should be introduced for assessing and labeling the environmental
performance of buildings. Well insulated houses minimize temperature differences among rooms,
enable the provision of high-quality heat with low carbon emissions, such as radiant heat. These
measures are appropriate for an aged society (Actions 1, 5).
Energy-efficient appliances and devices also contribute to the CO2 reduction in homes and offices.
In order to accelerate the improvement of energy efficiency, the coverage of the conventional
top-runner system should be extended to include all energy devices, and the improvement targets
should be revised every few years. Rewarding systems for entities that develop excellent
technologies should also be adopted for strengthening market penetration of energy-efficienttechnologies (Actions 2, 5).
However, these newly-developed efficient devices will not be widely used unless users actively
adopt them. To support such low-carbon consumption, advertising systems and infrastructures
should be constructed to enable consumers to obtain correct information about greenhouse gas
emissions from their consumption behavior. Through these activities, CO2 emission from productionof goods and services could be cut indirectly (Actions 11, 12).
Not eating vegetables, fruits and other food that are not seasonal reduces the energy required to
produce farm products (Action 3). Active use of wood instead of steel and cement for constructing
houses and buildings will reduce the consumption of materials whose production processes needhigh energy (Action 4).
There are also measures for sharply reducing energy, such as active use of solar, wind and biomassenergies available locally and purchase of low-carbon electricity (Actions 8, 9 and 10).

7

1. Comfortable & green built environment
Keep warm/cool air in the building by active
solar system and by changing building
structure.

12. Low carbon society leadership
Citizens understand that low‐carbon society
promotes safe and cozy life, and undertake
various actions towards that end.

11. Labeling to encourage smart and rational
choices
Disclosing the amount of CO2
emission makes consumers
select low‐carbon products
in affordable way.

CO2

2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances
Rental services relieve the burden of initialcost of high efficiency equipments, andpromote service supply independent frommanufacture.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Consumers select low‐carbon
seasonal food and can get the
information about farm producers.

CO2

4. Sustainable building materials

10. Next generation fuels

Actively use ofwood feedstock andwood manufactures.

Simultaneous supply of heatand electricity by fuel cell.

9. Local renewable resources for local
demand5. Environmentally enlightened business andindustry

8. Low‐carbon electricity

Active selection ofregional solar/wind energies.

Selection of low‐carbon electricity
such as renewable/nuclear
energy and thermal power with CCS.

Figure 6

Change of office space design and use fully to
low‐carbon style.

Actions for low-carbon homes and offices

7. Pedestrian friendly city design
Effective urban planning; high use facilities,
houses and offices are built in nearby areas.
Use of public traffic system and efficient vehicles.

11. Labeling to encourage smart andrational choices
Disclosing the amount of
CO2 emission makes consumers
smarter to select transportation
devices.

CO2

10. Next generation fuels
Use of hydrogen/bio‐fuel energy.

CO2

9. Renewable resources for local
demandActive selection of regional solar/windenergies.

8. Low‐carbon electricity
Use of low‐carbon electricity such as
renewable/nuclear energies and thermal powerwith CCS.

12. Low carbon society leadership
Developing human resources for designingadvanced urban areas organized withinwalking range.
Encouraging citizens to prefer walking inurban areas.

5. Environmentally enlightened business and industry
Simultaneous matching of supply and demandchanges production, logistics, consumption anddisposal practices to low‐carbon choices.

6. Swift and smooth logistics
Commodities are transported to shops andwarehouses swiftly.

Figure 7

Actions for low-carbon transport
8Actions for transport
Greenhouse gases in the transportation sector are mainly emitted when people travel by car or
public transportation, and when goods are transported by truck and ship.
Concentrating houses, offices and commercial facilities at the center of cities will reduce thedistances traveled by people and hence reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal,people should fully understand the advantages of living in cities where they do not need cars but canwalk for living. Municipal governments, together with citizens, should draw up land use plans thatconsider such low carbon designs. Realizing such cities will raise market competitiveness of public
transportation systems, such as bus, railways and Light Railway Transit (LRT), and thus thesesystems should be actively constructed. On the other hand, in regions where people live far away,
they will need cars to move. The efficiency of cars should be greatly improved by switching engines
to electric motors and reducing vehicle weight, resulting in the drastic reduction of CO2 emissions
from transportation (Action 7, 12).
To achieve low-carbon logistics, infrastructures for mass transportation systems such as railways
and ships need to be constructed. Diverse forms of support should be given to increase thetransportation capacities of these systems, such as by improving and expanding harbors and therailway network and developing high efficiency transportation devices. Systems and infrastructures
should also be constructed to enable smooth transshipment at distribution centers (Action 6).
Active use of solar and wind energy available locally for cars will contribute to sharp reduction of
CO2 emissions. Purchasing low-carbon electricity is also effective. It is also necessary to encourage
the use of hydrogen fuel cell cars and bioenergy fuels (Actions 8, 9 and 10).
To support low-carbon mobility, systems are needed to enable all entities involved in transport toacquire, at any time and place, information both on transportation system, such as timetable andtransportation fare and on greenhouse gas emissions from transport (Actions 11, 12).
Actions for industry
Companies should minimize carbon production in the lifecycle of their products (production,transport, sales, consumption, and disposal). The entire business process should also be optimized
using advanced information technologies so as to synchronize supply and demand and to construct
efficient production-transportation systems (Actions 5, 6).
With government providing economic support to low-carbon businesses, such as strengthening
public investment and giving tax benefits, companies can continue to develop leading technologies
with high energy-efficiency and low carbon intensity. Conventionally, energy devices are sold tousers, but to shift to the low-carbon business model, industries and/or commerce should shift toleasing of devices and appliances. This business style also supplements the pathways towards
sustainable and/or recycling society. Under this style, companies will be responsible for keeping thedevices operating at maximum efficiency (Actions 1, 2, 5, and 11).
For farm products, farmers should intend to produce in-season foods, and information on
production should be actively publicized to consumers to enable them to select low-carbon products(Action 6). In forestry, the timber market should be expanded to replace steel and cement, which
9consume high energy in manufacture, and competitiveness should be enhanced by rationalization(Action 5).
The energy industry should aim to supply zero-carbon power by combining renewable energies,
nuclear power, and CCS-equipped fossil-fired power. Introduction of hydrogen- and biomass-based
fuels are also indispensable for achieving low-carbonization of industries (Actions 8, 9 and 10).
Fosterage of low-carbon experts through school education curricula and establishment ofqualification system, such as a low-carbon advisory system, will grow human capital and resources
for practice of activities towards low-carbonizing industries (Action 12).

5. Corporate social responsibility for people
and earth

2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances
Constant effort for development of user
friendly top‐runner efficient devices.

Providing high‐value and low‐carbon goods andservices at affordable prices in an effective way.

12. Low carbon society leadership

3. Promoting seasonal local food

Cultivation of human resources to designand support a low‐carbon industry.

Active disclosure of product information for
consumers.

9. Local renewable resources for local
demand

4. Sustainable building materials

Production activity using regional energy
and supply of surplus energy to others.

Enhancement of competitiveness ofdomestic timber by thoroughrationalization efforts.

8. Low‐carbon electricity

10. Next generation fuels

Supplying low‐carbon electricity such as
renewable/ nuclear energy, and thermal
power with CCS.

Promoting R&D and investment in supply
systems based on hydrogen and bio‐fuel.

1. Comfortable and green built
environment

6. Swift and smooth logistics

Promoting R&D of zero‐carbon buildings.

11. Labeling to encourage smart andrational choices

Reducing stocks and goods‐in‐process bypromoting supply chain management
through the utilization of IT integrated withefficient logistics.

Supporting consumer’s wise‐selection
through actively information disclosure.

Figure 8

Actions for low-carbon industry

10

5.

Summary(1) Proposing a dozen of actions and their quantification: A dozen of actions are proposedthat enables Japan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2050 from the level in
1990, based on technological selection models. An action denotes a set of technologicalmeasures, social system reform programs and stimulatory policies that are combined
appropriately by also considering mutual relationships.
(2) Investigating actions by back-casting method: We use back-casting method, whichinvestigates actions to achieve the 70% reduction goal starting from 2050 and working backto today. From the model, numerical estimates can be prepared on what energy use (or carbon
dioxide emissions) should be done. Actions are summary of necessary approaches,
technological selections, social reforms, policies and measures to achieve the targets. It
would have financial advantage to start the actions later for technological progress, however
approaches to halt climate change cannot be taken at once. It takes time to construct thenecessary infrastructures, and taking actions at once would impose higher costs due tolimited resources, funds and manpower. Consistent policies towards clear goals must be
developed in proper sequence.
(3) First step towards a sustainable society: Taking measures against climate change is a major
opportunity to transform the conventional technological society that depends on hugeresources and energy, into a society in which little energy and resources are used. This will
also be the first step towards a sustainable society, which is our goal. Japan is one of the most
rapidly aging societies, and now is the time to restructure the nation. A low-carbon society
should be created by fully considering these conditions, which require reforms, and so as tobe mutually effective.
(4) Need for collaborative efforts: The government must demonstrate leadership for creating a
low-carbon society, but this alone is insufficient. The national government, municipal
governments, citizens, business entities, NGOs and other entities should share the vision of alow-carbon society, understand their roles and act in cooperation with each other. Most of theactions proposed here will be the basis of such cooperation and cannot be fulfilled unless all
cooperate. All researchers involved in this study sincerely hope that a low-carbon society willbe created by all people collaborating on the dozen of actions in order to stabilize the climate.

11

The Japan–UK Joint Research Project on
a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society (LCS)The Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MoEJ) and the Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs in the UK (Defra) are jointly promoting ascientific research project towards achieving a Low Carbon Society (LCS) by
2050. The National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the UK Energy

Research Centre (UKERC) and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
are conducting research activities in line with this goal. We held the 1st LCS
workshop in June 2006 (Tokyo) and the 2nd LCS workshop in June 2007
(London). The 3rd LCS workshop was held in February 2008 (Tokyo).

Through the workshop series we have studied the necessity, urgency andfeasibility of local, national and international action on reducing global

greenhouse gas emissions through sustainable development, and havedeveloped a shared understanding of low-carbon societies and their impacts on
future development pathways and economic growth.

We have delivered “Call for Action” of the three workshops, “Executive

Summary” of the 3rd workshop and others to G8 Japan process, such as

Gleneagles dialogue (G20) in Chiba, during 14-16 March 2008 and G8
Environmental Ministerial Meeting in Kobe, during 24-26 May 2008. Further
information: http://2050.nies.go.jp.

“Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050”
This research project, initiated in 2004, is sponsored by Global Environment
Research Fund (S-3) of MoEJ. The objective of the project is to propose
concrete countermeasures to achieve LCSs in Japan by 2050, including
institutional change, technology development and lifestyle change. More than
50 research experts have studied together to develop visions and roadmaps.
This project supports the “Japan–UK Joint Research Project.”Contact: Junichi Fujino
Senior Researcher, Center for Global Environment Research (CGER),
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan.

Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp/