G l o b a l

E n v i r o n m e n t

R e s e a r c h

F u n dCountry-Specific Long-Term Emissions

Scenario Study TeamJapan Low Carbon Society Scenarios Toward 2050
Research Project on"Establishing of Methodology to Evaluate Middle to Long term Environmental
Policy Options toward Low Carbon Society in Japan"(FY2004-2008)
sponsored by Strategic Research Development Project,
Global Environment Research Fund,Japan
Ministry of the Environment, JapanLCS Research Booklet

No.2, June 2006

Low Carbon
Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Scenario Study Team of “Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050”
Members
Mikiko Kainuma: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Toshihiko Masui: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Junichi Fujino*: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Tatsuya Hanaoka: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Shuichi Ashina: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Yuzuru Matsuoka: Kyoto University

Reina Kawase*: Kyoto University

Osamu Akashi: Kyoto University

Koji Shimada: Ritsumeikan University

Go Hibino*: Mizuho Information & Research Institute

Kazutaka Oka*

: Mizuho Information & Research Institute

Maho Miyashita: Mizuho Information & Research Institute

Tomoki Ehara: Mizuho Information & Research Institute

Pedro Piris-Cabezas*: Yale University* Editorial member of this reportCountry-Specific Long-Term Emissions
Table of Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1
Country-Specific Long-Term Emissions ........................................................................... 2[UK] Energy - The Changing Climate.........................................................................................................5[UK] Energy White Paper..............................................................................................................................7[UK] Decarbonising the UK .........................................................................................................................9[Czech] National Climate Change Plan .....................................................................................................11[Finland] CLIMTECH programme ...........................................................................................................12[France] Reducing CO2 emissions fourfold in France by 2050 .............................................................14[Germany] Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply ........................................................16[Netherlands] COOL Project......................................................................................................................18[Sweden] Swedish Climate Strategy Summary..........................................................................................19[Canada] Energy Technology Futures 2050..............................................................................................20[Canada] Long Term Energy and Climate Strategies for Canada .........................................................22[USA] Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future.............................................................................................23[USA] Engines of Growth ..........................................................................................................................25[China] Energy and GHG Emission Scenario of China........................................................................27[India] Global Climate Change Stabilization Regimes and Indian Emission Scenarios....................29[Australia] Long-Term Greenhouse Gas scenarios .................................................................................31[Australia] A Clean Energy Future for Australia......................................................................................32[Japan] Citizens’ Open Model Projects......................................................................................................34[Japan] 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap ..............................................................................................36[Japan] Energy supply and demand outlook to 2030 ..............................................................................37[Japan] Strategic Technology Roadmap (Energy Sector)........................................................................39
Appendix: References Concerning Long-Term Emission Scenarios .............................. 40

Introduction
According to IPCC’s latest findings global warming increases at a higher pace than expected. For
instance, it has recently been found that ice sheet has been melting widely in the world. In order toavoid catastrophic global warming it is relevant for policy-makers to establish a target of atmosphericcarbon dioxide emission or concentration. One of the indicative targets is that in order to limit the
global temperature rise to less than 2°C from the pre-industrial level, the global carbon dioxide
emission during 2050-2100 should be half or less than the current value. Medium to long-term (2050)
GHG emission reduction strategies have already been appraised in some countries such as the UK,
Germany and France, with GHG reductions of 60%, 80% and 75%, respectively. Currently, in Japan,
the National Institute for Environmental Studies and the Kyoto University are jointly assessing a 60 to
80% GHG reduction by 2050. This project is called “Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward2050”.
The scope of this report is to compile the country-specific scenarios toward low carbon society and toarrange them in a common format in order to better assess the different national approaches. It deals
with more than 10 countries’ scenarios, such as EU countries, North America, Oceania and Asia,
where these concerns have entered policy debates.
This report has been prepared in the hope that it would be useful for concerned researchers andpolicy-makers and provide helpful insights when designing analogous scenarios for other countries.

1Country-Specific Long-Term Emissions
European Union’s GHG atmospheric concentration stabilization target of 450-550 ppmv CO2 and thetemperature rise target of 2°C by 2050 have become an international standard. To meet this target
long-term scenarios and strategies have already been reported at the national level in countries such as
the UK, Germany and France with GHG reductions of 60%, 80% and 75%, respectively. Furthermore,
in Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies and the Kyoto University are jointly
assessing a 60 to 80% GHG reduction by 2050.
However, it is not an easy task to achieve that kind of drastic reductions. Carbon dioxide reductions
can be expressed in terms of GDP, energy intensity (EI) and carbon intensity of energy (CI).
Assuming a uniform GDP growth-rate of 1% over the next 50 years, the CO2 reduction scenarios for2050 can be represented in a two-dimensional chart, as shown in Figure 1 for the UK, Germany,
France and Japan. The CO2 reduction isoquants in Figure 1 are only appropriate when the above
assumptions are met. Furthermore, also represented in the same figure are the EI and CI annual
average variation rates for the following periods: 1960-2000 and 1990-2000. Every country but Japan
has experienced a decreasing annual average EI and CI in the periods hereby considered. Japan’s EI
absolute value is relatively lower than that of the UK, Germany or France. Though, in the second
period (1990-2000) there has been a shift in consumption patterns due to the preference for full-size
cars -with a significant impact in the GHG emissions related to transportation- and an expansion inenergy consumption stemming from an increase in the quantity of home appliances.

Trade and Industry of Japan

ti o
uc
n

uc
tio
n
n
n
ti o
uc

and France scenarios report

Germany(1990–2000)

drecontrast, the UK, Germany

Saving energy
Combine option–2–3

Change in carbon intensitywith CCS

Revivaltioslightly lower than 40%. In

UK(1990–2000) 1960-2000

uc

maximum CO2 reduction is–1

Change in carbon intensity
excluding carbon captureand storage (CCS)

n
io

the

B2

ct

then

d
re

rate,

Switchover%annual(1990–2000)
France90remain the same, i.e., 1%

1960-2000dreand the GDP assumptions

1960-2000%
80

are extrapolated up to 2050,

dureconsidered in those scenarios%
70

the EI and CI rates

%

If

0

60

reduction scenarios until 2030.

Japan(1990–2000)dreemission%developed

50

has

Change rate of energy intensity (%/year)

The Ministry of Economy,

–3

–2

–1

Historical change rates forthe past 40 years, andprojections, are connectedwith change rates in the
1990s. Dashed lines,
having a lope of -1,
represent positions inwhich a 50-90% reductionis achieved over 50 years
with 1% GDP growth.

0Change rate of carbon intensity (%/year)

Figure 1 Relationships between CO2 reduction targets andaggregate energy intensity/carbon intensity.

2

about 80% reduction. It has to be noted that the UK’s scenarios consider higher GDP growth-rates,
2.25% and 3%. The forecasted CO2 reductions under such assumptions are around 60%. The
above-mentioned UK scenarios with a 1% GDP growth-rate hypothesis lead, ceteris paribus, to anincrease in CO2 reductions from 60% to 80%. An 80% reduction in CO2 emissions requires a change
in the combined EI and CI annual rate of about -4%, which is an enormous challenge given the pasttrends, as illustrated in Figure 1.
This report compiles the demanding country-specific emission scenarios. Table 1 shows a detailed listof the scenarios covered in this report. In some European Union countries emission scenarios toward
low carbon society have been recognized officially by governments, while in most countries emission
scenarios have not been considered by the governments or are confined to semi-formal proposals by
research institutes. In order to avoid catastrophic global warming in the future, it is absolutely essentialthat countries all over the world consider of emission scenario strategies in their national policies. For
this purpose researches on development of emission scenarios toward low carbon society should be
carried out not only in Japan or European countries but also in developed countries that have not
ratified the Kyoto protocol, and in the developing countries as well.

3

Table 1 Summary of strategies for low-carbon societyCountry

Organization
Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution

Report / Project
Energy - The Changing
ClimateUK

Department of Tradeand Industry

Energy White Paper

UK

Tyndall Centre

Czech

Ministry of Environment

UK

FinlandFranceFinnish Agency forTechnology andInnovation
French Interministerial
Task Force on Climate
ChangeEmission Target
60% reduction in national CO2 emissions from fossil fuelcombustion relative to the 1998 level in 2050
60% reduction in national CO2 emissions from current level (ormore precisely by 58% from 1997 levels). This would lead to2050 emissions of 64 million tonnes of carbon (MtC).
A true 60% reduction in national CO2 emissions by 2050
30 % reduction in national GHG emissions relative to 2000 levels
in 2020
The abatement levels studied for the year 2030 were 0%, –10%,–20% and –30% from the 1990 level. All the six GHGs includedin the Kyoto protocol were considered in the scenarios.

Decarbonising the UK
National Climate
Change Plan
CLIMTECH
programme
Reducing CO2
emissions fourfold inFrance by 2050
Enquete Commission
on Sustainable Energy
Supply75% reduction in national GHGs emissions relative to the 1998
level in 2050
40% reduction in GHG emissions in the industrialised nations(i.e. also in Germany) by 2020, 50 % by 2030 and 80 % by 2050,
relative to 1990

Germany

Deutscher Bundestag

Netherlands

National Institute forpublic Health and theEnvironment et al.

COOL Project50-80% reduction in national GHG emissions by 2050 relative to1990 level

SwedenSwedish Environmental
Protection Agency

Swedish Climate
Strategy Summary

At least 4 per cent (expressed as an average for the period
2008-2012) lower in national GHG emissions relative to 1990
level. Make the national GHG emissions total less than 4.5
tonnes per capita per annum by 2050 and the emissions continue
to decrease thereafter.

CanadaNatural Resources
CanadaEnergy Technology
Futures 2050
Long Term Energy andClimate Strategic
Scenarios for a Clean
Energy Future
Engines of Growth
Energy and GHG
Emission Scenario of
China
Global Climate Change
Stabilization Regimes
and Indian Emission
Scenarios
Long-Term
Greenhouse Gas
Scenarios
A Clean Energy Future
for Australia

CanadaUSA
USA

ICF Consulting
U.S. Department ofEnergyArgonneNL/EPA/GPN

China

Energy ResearchInstitute

India

Indian Institute ofManagement et al.

Australia

The Australia Institute

Australia

WWF Australia et al.

JAPAN
JAPAN

Citizens’ Open Model
Projects for Alternativeand Sustainable
Scenarios [NGO]Japan Atomic Industrial
Forum

JAPAN

Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry

JAPAN

Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry-

550 ppmv global concentration stabilization
60 % reduction in national GHG emissions by 2050 relative to
1998-99 levels
50 % reduction in national CO2 emissions from the stationary
energy sector relative to 2001 level by 2040

Citizens’ Open Model
Projects

60% reduction in CO2 emissions relative to 2010 level (based on
Kyoto protocol) in 2050

2050 Nuclear Vision
and Roadmap
Energy supply anddemand outlook to
2030
Strategic Technology
Roadmap (Energy
Sector)Make the CO2 emission intensity per GDP to be 1/3 in 2050 andless than 1/10 in 2100 compared to current level.

4[UK] Energy - The Changing Climate[UK] Energy - The Changing Climate
Organizations

Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP)

Year

2000 (Release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level

CO2: 550 ppmv

Emission Target

Policies

60% reduction in national CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion relative to the 1998 level in
2050
Development of alternative sources and reductions in energy demand; Phase out of nuclear
power stations by 2025; Expanding the contribution from renewable sources well beyond 10% ofelectricity supply; Sophisticated management of heat and CHP; Protection and expansion ofcarbon sinks through reforestation and land use policies; Introduction of a carbon tax whichshould apply upstream and cover all sectors; Promotion of investment on Energy Research andDevelopment; Development of electricity distribution and transmission network; A long term
programme to bring about major reductions in the energy requirement of buildings; Creation of anational trading scheme; Establishment of a sustainable energy agency
Four scenarios, as shown in Table 2, were constructed to illustrate the options available forbalancing energy demand and supply by 2050 if the UK is to reduce CO2 emissions from theburning of fossil fuels by 60%.
Table 3 confirms that in scenarios 2-4 CO2 emissions in 2050 from fossil fuel combustion would
be reduced by 60% from their level in 1997. In scenario 1 the reduction would be slightly smaller,
at 57%. This discrepancy was not regarded as significant in view of the uncertainty attached tomany of the assumptions in the scenarios.

Scenario
scenario 1

Emission
Scenarios

Table 2 Scenario list
Contents
No increase on 1998 demand, combination ofrenewables and either nuclear power stations or large
fossil fuel power stations with CO2 capture and storage.

scenario 2

Demand reductions, renewables (no nuclear power
stations or routine use of large fossil fuel power
stations).

scenario 3

Demand reductions, combination of renewables andeither nuclear power stations or large fossil fuel power
stations with CO2 capture and storage.

scenario 4

Very large demand reductions. Renewables (no nuclear
power stations or routine use of large fossil fuel power
stations).

5

Table 3 CO2 emissions (RCEP 2000)

Economic Impact-

Reference

Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP), 2000, Energy – The Changing Climate,
22nd Report : http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm

6

[UK] Energy White Paper[UK] Energy White Paper
Organizations

Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)

Year

2003 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

MARKAL

Stabilization Level

CO2: 550 ppm

Emission Target

Policies

UK put itself on a path towards a reduction in CO2 emissions by 60% from current level (or more
precisely by 58% from 1997 levels). This would lead to 2050 emissions of 64 million tonnes ofcarbon (MtC).
Stimulation of the growth in renewables energy (to supply 20% of UK electricity in 2020);
Development of options for cleaner coal technologies and for carbon capture and storage; Carbon
emissions trading scheme; Energy efficiency improvement in business, public sectors, and inhouseholds; Energy efficiency improvement of products and buildings; Improvements inefficiency and lower carbon fuels in transport; Liberalisation of energy markets
Three scenarios (BL, WM, and GS) were developed. The latter two following the themes andgeneral trends developed by the Energy Futures Task Force of DTI’s Technology Foresight
Programme. For each of the three scenarios, three runs of the model were undertaken withdifferent levels of carbon abatement. The model responds to these emission constraints bychoosing combinations of fuels and technologies that reduce emissions at least cost, while still
meeting the useful energy demands. See Table 4 for details on the scenarios.
Figure 2 shows the carbon emissions under the reference scenarios. Under the Baseline scenario
the fall is 22% and under the WM and GS scenarios emissions decline by 11% and 33%
respectively. Figure 3 shows the sectoral emissions under the Baseline group of scenarios. The
results of the abatement scenarios show that all sectors have a role if emissions reductions are to
be achieved at the lowest cost.

Scenario
Baseline (BL)
Emission
Scenarios

Table 4 Scenario list
Contents
The current values of society remain unchanged andpolicy intervention in support of environmental
objectives is pursued in a similar way to now (GDPgrowth 2.25% per year).

World
Markets(WM)

Based on individual consumerist values. A high degreeof globalization and scant regard for the global
environment (GDP growth 3% per year) Continued
innovation is expected with “clean and efficient” fossil
fuel technologies (to some extent, fuel cells for
distributed generation and transport). People use someof their greater wealth to improve the region in which
they live.

GlobalSustainability(GS)

Based on the predominance of social and ecologicalvalues. Strong collective environmental action andglobalization of governance systems (GDP growth
2.25% per year). An “environmental bias” in the
direction of innovation (fuel cell vehicles and hybrids,etc.). A much stronger incentive for – with induced

7

cost reductions in – carbon sequestration technologies,
including IGCC with CO2 sequestration. The costs ofhydrogen production are also reduced, both from fossil
fuels and renewables.
BL45,WM45,
GS45

45% reduction of CO2 emission based on eachscenario.

BL60,WM60,
GS60

60% reduction of CO2 emission based on eachscenario.

BL70,WM70,
GS70

70% reduction of CO2 emission based on eachscenario.

Figure 2 Carbon emissions under the reference scenarios (DTI 2003b)

Figure 3 Sectoral emissions under the Baseline group of scenarios (DTI 2003b)

Economic Impact

Reference

The cost of reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 was in the range of £200-300 per tonne ofcarbon. GDP in 2050 was reduced by 0.5-2.0%, equivalent to an average annual reduction of
between 0.01 and 0.02 percentage points from a business as usual GDP growth rate of 2.25% perannum.
・ Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), 2003a, Energy White Paper - Our energy future creating a low carbon economy: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file10719.pdf
・ Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), 2003b, Economics Paper No.4 - Options for a low
carbon future: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file14769.pdf

8

[UK] Decarbonising the UK[UK] Decarbonising the UK
Organizations

Tyndall CentreYear2005 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level

CO2: 550 ppmv

Emission Target

A true 60% reduction in national CO2 emissions by 2050

Policies

Backcasting; Supply of renewable and clean energy; Sustainable energy in the built environment;
Sustainable transportation; Carbon sequestration, capture and storage; Domestic tradable quotas
The bottom-up process developed for generating the Tyndall integrated scenarios has resulted in asuite of scenarios that do not lend themselves to simple characterisation, whether in terms ofenergy supply, demand, innovation, efficiency or economic growth. Consequently, to encourage
the users of the scenarios to interpret them within a more inclusive context, they have been
allocated neutral descriptors. Within this report the five scenarios are referred to as Red, Blue,
Turquoise, Purple and Pink, with Orange representing the present day as shown in Table 5.
All of the Tyndall integrated scenarios achieve the UK government’s 60% 2050 CO2 target. For
today and each scenario, the sectoral CO2 emissions are illustrated in Figure 4.
Table 5 Scenario list
ScenarioContents
The Red Scenario The Red Scenario is a high economic growth andlow energy demand scenario in which the level of
economic growth is slightly greater than today andresults in a 2050 economy nearly five times larger
than that of today.

Emission
Scenarios

The Blue
Scenario

The Blue Scenario is a modest economic growthand modest energy demand scenario in which thecontribution to national wealth of the commercial
sector is almost matched by the expansion of the
public sector.

The Turquoise
Scenario

The Turquoise Scenario is a medium economic
growth, medium energy demand scenario with theeconomy growing at a rate similar to that of today.

The Purple andPink Scenarios

The Purple and Pink Scenarios are high economic
growth, high demand supply scenarios. Whilst the
purple and pink scenarios share the same demandside characteristics, they differ in how that demandis met.

9

Figure 4 Sectoral emissions under the Baseline group of scenarios (Tyndall Centre 2005)

Economic Impact-

Reference

Tyndall Centre, 2005, Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/news/tyndall_decarbonising_the_uk.pdf

10

[Czech] National Climate Change Plan

[Czech] National Climate Change Plan
Organizations

Ministry of EnvironmentYear2004 (release year)

Target Year

2020

Model

-

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

30 % reduction in national GHG emissions relative to 2000 levels in 2020

Policies

Policy Processes and Outreach - Strategic Planning

Emission
Scenarios-

Economic Impact-

Reference

Ministry of Environment, 2004, National Climate Change Plan (2004):
http://www.env.cz/www/archiv.nsf/pages/B22AD2E5347CF135C1256E4C0053BF2B?OpenDo
cument11

[Finland] CLIMTECH programme[Finland] CLIMTECH programme
Organizations

Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (TEKES)

Year

1999 – 2002 (project term)

Target Year

2040

Model

TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target
Policies

The abatement levels studied for the year 2030 were 0%, –10%, –20% and –30% from the 1990
level. All the six GHGs included in the Kyoto protocol were considered in the scenarios.
Renewable energy sources and distributed energy production; Energy efficiency and industry;
Non-CO2 GHGs; Capture and utilisation of CO2; Development of models and systems;
Commercialisation; tax and subsidy system; CO2 emission trading
The total study horizon of the scenarios was chosen to be 2000–2040, of which the focus was set
on the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. The main interest was in the longer term beyond the Kyoto
period. In addition to ‘Kyoto’ scenario, two possible future development paths were characterized
for the scenarios. See Table 6 for details on the scenarios. Emission reduction targets wereassumed both for the Kyoto period 2008–2012 and for the year 2030. The GHG abatement levels
studied for the year 2030 were 0%, -10%, -20% and -30% from the 1990 level. Table 7 shows thesummary of the differences in the main scenario assumptions.
Figure 5 shows the GHG emissions by main category between 1990 and 2030 in the scenarioswith base emission targets. Until the year 2010 there are only small differences between scenarios.
In conformity with global trends, emissions from energy production and transports have thestrongest tendency to increase in Finland due to increasing electricity use and transportation
volumes. Without new emission targets beyond Kyoto, the emissions from energy production
would increase continuously until 2030. On the other hand, in the scenarios with the 20%
reduction target most of the additional emission reduction measures would, indeed, take place inenergy production, in particular in the Conventional scenario.

Emission
Scenarios

Scenario‘Kyoto’ scenario

Table 6 Scenario list
Contents
Only the Kyoto emission target was assumed toremain in force.

‘Conventional’
development:
scenarioInternational measures for climate change
mitigation evolve slowly. There is no major push
for the development and commercialisation ofcleaner technologies. As a result, the penetration of
new energy technologies is slow and depends highly
on economic policy instruments.

‘Optimistic’
development:
scenario

Accelerated climate change mitigation measureslead to boosted development and employment ofcleaner technologies, both in the international
context and within Finland. Increased funding forboth R&D and promotion of technologies reducing
emissions is thereby implicitly assumed.

12

Table 7 Summary of the differences in the main scenario assumptions (TEKES 2003)

Figure 5 GHG emissions by main category between 1990 and 2030 in the scenarios withbase emission targets. Scenario variants including CO2 emission trade are marked withthe suffix ‘ET’ (TEKES 2003).

Economic Impact

Reference

The tighter the emission abatement goals are the wider becomes the cost difference between theConventional and Optimistic scenarios. With the 20% reduction target the difference in costs isalmost 500 M€ per annum in 2030, and with the 30% target the difference is increased to about
800 M€.
Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (TEKES), 2003, The role of technology
development in greenhouse gas emission reduction – Case of Finland, Presentation at theInternational Energy Workshop, 24-26.6.2003, IIASA:
http://www.etsap.org/worksh_6_2003/2003P_lehtilla.pdf

13

[France] Reducing CO2 emissions fourfold in France by 2050

[France] Reducing CO2 emissions fourfold in France by 2050
Organizations

French Interministeriel Task Force on Climate Change (MIES)

Year

2004 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level

CO2: 450 ppmv

Emission Target

Policies

The goal of the project is to reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to less than 450 ppmv.
In order to meet this goal, the current level of 6 billion tC should be reduced to 3 billion tC as
soon as possible. First efforts to reduce emissions could involve setting a target of 5 billion tC in
2050 which would correspond to a quota of 0.5 tC per capita per year for a world population ofaround 10 billion in 2050. Transposing emission levels of 0.5 tC per capita in 2050 to a total
population in France of 64 million yields the result of 32 MtC (105.23 MtC in 2000). Thus,
fourfold reduction in national GHG emissions by 2050 is required.
Energy conservation; Improved energy efficiency; Development of Renewables; Storing electricity;
Converting to the hydrogen economy
Scenarios for technology options, as shown in Table 8, are analyzed. The bottom five variants are
all in line with the factor 4 emission reduction target and combine large-scale progress in energy
efficiency and fuel switching in energy used for heat production purposes, transport and electricity
generation.
Figure 6 shows the CO2 emissions per sector and per (variants) scenarios. The Figure shows thatthe impact of measures aimed at the factor 4 reduction target implemented in the transport sector
can be gauged (32 MtC in 2050).

Scenario
w/o EcoEmission
Scenarios

Table 8 Scenario list
Contents
A variant without any progress in energy efficiency
beyond the average performance of equipment alreadyon sale and without further changes in fuel-switching
trends.

Eco w/o fuelswitching

A variant with improved energy efficiency but with nochange in the different shares of the individual types ofenergy in the total energy mix, compared to theprevious variant.

SupplyA variant involving a supply-driven response to theclimate constraint, i.e. responding by fuel switching
mainly in favour of nuclear generated electricity but
without any further progress in energy efficiency.

Gas turb

A variant to use of gas turbines to produce electricity
instead of nuclear power.

F4 nuclear

A variant with increased nuclear development andtake-up of electricity in all uses, including transport.

F4 RcogN

A variant combining the use of nuclear energy with thedevelopment of combined heat and power production,

14

and renewables.
F4 Sequest

A variant involving maintaining large-scale fossil fueluse and including CO2 sequestration, which eases theconstraints of fuel switching, especially in the transport
sector.

F4 w/o N+S

A variant involving abandoning nuclear power withsequestration of CO2.

F4 H2

A variant involving the setting up of a hydrogenproduction network using nuclear power.

Figure 6 CO2 emissions per sector and per (variants) scenarios (MIES 2004)

Economic Impact
Reference

From an economic point of view (e.g. Energy expenditure), F4 scenarios are evaluated to beeffective.
French Interministeriel Task Force on Climate Change (MIES), 2004. Reducing CO2 emissions
fourfold in France by 2050 - Introduction to the debate:
http://www.effet-de-serre.gouv.fr/fr/etudes/Facteur4-ang%20BAT.pdf

15

[Germany] Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply[Germany] Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply
Organizations

Deutscher BundestagYear2002 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model
Stabilization Level
Emission Target

Policies

Models developed by the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy (WI), theInstitute of Energy Management and Efficient Energy Use (IER), and PROGNOS AG, Basle.
The goal of the project is to reduce GHG emissions in the industrialised nations (i.e. also in
Germany) by 40% by the year 2020, by 50% by the year 2030 and by 80% by the year 2050,
relative to 1990.
Efficient energy use; Combined heat and power; Storage of CO2; Fuel switch from coal to oil in
mid-term (to hydrogen in long-term); Facilitation of market access for renewables; Eco-taxes;
Nuclear power phased out
In order to assess the prospects of sustainable development up to the year 2050, the commission
has examined economic and technological capability as well as options for practical and politicalaction. To this end, the commission developed 14 scenarios and variations for Germany, withdifferent assumptions and implementation perspectives. See Table 9 for details on the scenarios.
Figure 7 shows the primary energy consumption by the year 2050, according to various scenarios.

Scenario
Reference

Emission
Scenarios

Table 9 Scenario list
Contents
・Continuation of the current energy policy (“business as
usual”)
・Eco-tax only until 2003
・Constant energy tax in real terms

Efficient
Conversion(UWE)

・Accelerated effort to increase the efficiency of the useof fossil fuels
・More stringent energy regulation
・Continuous increase in energy taxes
・Separation and storage of CO2 in repositories

RES/EEU
Initiative(RRO)

・Accelerated efforts to increase the efficiency in all fields
of application
・Greater use of renewables
・Continuous increase in energy taxes
・50 per cent share of renewables by 2050

Fossil-Nucl
ear Energy
Mix (FNE)

・Construction of new clear power stations after 2010
・Moderate implementation of energy conservation policy

16

Figure 7 Primary energy consumption by the year 2050, according to various scenarios(Deutscher Bundestag 2002)

Economic Impact

Reference

The system costs of the reference scenario and its variant will amount to 9.2 or 9.1 per cent of
GDP by the year 2050. In the target scenario that does not include the use of nuclear energy, thisvalue will increase by between 0.3 per cent (RRO scenario of WI) and 1.2 per cent (RRO scenario
Var.1 of IER) by the year 2050. Is the fossil-nuclear scenarios, the cost differences range between–0.5 and +0.3 percentage points relative to the reference scenario. This means that – as apercentage of GDP – the system costs of the RRO scenario will be about at the same level by theyear 2050 as they are today.
Deutscher Bundestag, 2002, Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply, Against the
Background of Globalisation and Liberalisation -Summary of the Final Report-:
http://www.wupperinst.org/download/renewables/enquete-summary.pdf

17

[Netherlands] COOL Project[Netherlands] COOL Project

Year

Wageningen University; Free University of Amsterdam; National Institute for Public Health andthe Environment; et al.
1999 – 2001 (project term)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Organizations

Emission Target

CO2: 450 ppmv
CO2 eq: 550 ppmv
50-80% reduction in national GHG emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 level

Policies

Policy recommendations by participatory integrated assessment; BackcastingStabilization Level

Two future images of the Netherlands in 2050, both of which sketch a society that has been able
to reduce its GHG emissions by 80%, were developed. The images/visions are based on two
scenarios used by IPCC, which have been quantified with respect to the Dutch situation. See Table
10 for details on the scenarios.

Scenario
Vision A
Emission
Scenarios

Vision B

Table 10 Scenario list
Contents
Internationally oriented “Global Village.” Dynamic
worldwide economic development, free market, andhigh consumption levels. Individualistic. Economic
value is important. Own interest first. Little
government regulation.
Regionally oriented, world trade blocs. Characterized bymoderate growth and less dynamism. Sociable, familyoriented. Economic value is environmentally minded.
Own interest first. Distribution of wealth, social equity.
Strong government.

Economic Impact-

Reference

Wageningen University et al., 2002, Climate OptiOns for the Long term - Final Report Volume A
COOL – Synthesis Report: http://www2.wau.nl/cool/reports/COOLVolumeAdef.pdf

18

[Sweden] Swedish Climate Strategy Summary[Sweden] Swedish Climate Strategy Summary
Organizations

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

Year2000 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level

GHG: 550 ppm

Emission Target

Swedish emissions of GHG are to be at least 4% lower in 2010 -expressed as an average for theperiod 2008-2012- than they were in 1990 (at least 8% stricter than Sweden’s EU-Kyoto Protocolcommitments). By 2050, GHG emissions in Sweden should total less than 4.5 tonnes of CO2eq
per capita per annum and emissions should continue to decrease thereafter.

Policies*) Recently, the Swedish Government has made a decision to set a medium-term climate target of-25% by 2020, compared with emissions in 1990.
Climate policy; Energy policy programme; Local investment programme; Environmentallyoriented product policy; Settlement; Refuse policy

Emission
Scenarios-

Economic Impact-

Reference・ Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2003, The Swedish Climate Strategy Summary
Gov. Bill 2001/02:55: http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c4/11/55/fbd1d28b.pdf
・ Ministry of Sustainable Development, 2006, Fact Sheet: National climate policy in global
cooperation: http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/06/47/23/ccbef4cd.pdf

19

[Canada] Energy Technology Futures 2050

[Canada] Energy Technology Futures 2050
Organizations

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)

Year

-

Target Year

2050

Model

NRCan’s InterFuel Substitution Demand Model

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

Alternative and renewable energy; Biotechnologies; Electricity generation; Electricity transmission& storage; GHG management (capture, disposal and re-use); Hydrogen; Illumination; Mobility;
Process heating; Space conditioning; Stationary drives
The ETF (Energy Technology Future) Team selected and named the scenarios as shown in Table
11.
Figure 8 shows the estimates of the GHG emission levels. The Life Goes On scenario
approximates the emission levels in the Business As Usual Forecast. The Come Together scenario
has GHG emission levels closest to the 2050 “GHG Budget” for Canada.

Scenario
Life Goes On:
Reference

Table 11 Scenario list
Contents
Reference. Restricted markets limit the flow ofgoods and information. Slow to adopt newtechnology. Investment in research anddevelopment lags. Industry focuses on cutting costs
through increment investments. Focus is on thestandard of living and other social considerations.

Grasping at
StrawsAdopt a series of no regrets actions including the
rapid deployment of a variety of off-the-shelftechnologies. Moving technologies on the shelf
generate short term benefits, but R&D investment
is limited. Energy is regionally diverse.

Taking Care ofBusiness

Built on its expertise in information systems,
high-voltage electrical transmission and distribution,and its natural resource endowment. Social andenvironmental issues are secondary to expanded
economy and prosperity. Information technologies
and high leads to rapid innovation and capital stock
turnover.

Come Together

A GHG responsive, proactive world with open
market. There is a strong cohesion of views among
government, industry, and the public regarding
environmental issues. New technologies are applied
in innovative ways. The rapid pace of innovationand integration of technologies provide a winder
range of problem-solving options.

Emission
Scenarios

20Figure 8 Estimates of the GHG emission levels (NRCan -)Economic Impact-

Reference

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), (-), Energy Technology Future 2050

21

[Canada] Long Term Energy and Climate Strategies for Canada[Canada] Long Term Energy and Climate Strategies for Canada
Organizations

ICF ConsultingYear

2005 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

Carbon Capture; Truck efficiency improvement; EE in Oil and Gas Sector; Cogeneration;
Electricity Intensity Improvements; Urban Form; Wind power, Personal vehicle fuel efficiency
Two scenarios, as shown in Table 12, are developed.
Figure 9 shows the GHG Emissions by sector.

Scenario
Baseline
WedgesTable 12 Scenario list
Contents

CO2 reduction wedges (i.e. counter-measures suchas carbon capture) are included.

Emission
Scenarios

Figure 9 GHG emissions by sector (ICF Consulting 2005)

Economic Impact-

Reference

ICF Consulting, 2005, Long Term Energy and Climate Strategies for Canada

22[USA] Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future[USA] Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future
Organizations

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE)

Year

2000 (release year)

Target Year

2020

Model

CEF-NEMS model

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

The structured development of energy scenarios allows a way to examine a range of public policies
and to consider alternative possibilities. The CEF study develops three scenarios as shown in
Table 13.
Figure 10 shows the carbon emission reductions, by sector. By 2020, carbon emissions in the
Advanced scenario are 30 to 32% lower than in the BAU forecast. These emission reductions arenearly three times those of the Moderate scenario. This much stronger performance of theAdvanced scenario results from the focus of many of its policies on the use of low-carbon energy
resources.

ScenarioBusiness-as-Usual(BAU)

Table 13 Scenario list
Contents
The BAU scenario assumes a continuation ofcurrent energy policies and a steady, but modest
pace of technological progress.

Moderate

Defined by policies that are consistent withincreasing levels of public commitment and politicalresolve to solving the nation’s energy-related
challenges.

Advanced

Defined by policies that are consistent withincreasing levels of public commitment and politicalresolve to solving the nation’s energy-related
challenges. Establishment of a domestic carbon
trading system. Permits are sold annually in acompetitive auction run by the federal government.
The carbon emissions annual limit is set so that thepermit price equilibrates at $50/tC (in 1997$)
throughout the period. A $25/tC case is also
analyzed. The second key policy mechanism for allof the sectors is the doubling of federal government
appropriations for cost-shared RD&D in efficientand clean energy technologies.

Emission
Scenarios

23

Figure 10 Carbon emission reductions, by sector(Upper panel: the Moderate Scenario; Lower panel: the Advanced Scenario) (DOE 2000)

Economic Impact
Reference

The net effect is that by 2020 the Advanced scenario’s energy bill is $23 billion lower than that in
the Moderate scenario and $124 billion lower than in the BAU forecast, even with the costs ofcarbon permits included.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE),
2000, Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future: http://www.ornl.gov/sci/eere/cef/index.htm

24

[USA] Engines of Growth[USA] Engines of Growth
Organizations

Argonne National Laboratory; U.S. Environment Protection Agency; Global Business NetworkYear

2004 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

AMIGA

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

Promote diversity in energy supply; Decrease U.S. dependence on foreign oil; Improve U.S. energy
security; Increase efficiency in all energy-intensive sectors of the economy through theintroduction of conservation measures and advanced technologies; Accelerate capital stock
turnover particularly in the electricity and transportation sectors; Sustain economic growth;
Decrease CO2 emissions resulting from energy supply and use
Four basecase scenarios have been developed representing a diverse range of future worlds to
explore the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape U.S. energy markets and theeconomy for the next fifty years. More can be learned from these scenarios if a strategic challengesufficient to motivate major change in the behavior of key actors is introduced. The response tothis challenge can then be simulated and tracked in three additional scenarios. See Table 14 fordetails on the scenarios.
Figure 11 shows the total carbon emission in the basecase and policy scenarios. In Challenge andResponse scenarios big impacts of implementing policies to limit CO2 emissions are observed.

Scenario
The Official
FutureEmission
Scenarios

Table 14 Scenario list
Contents
A reference scenario reflecting conventional
wisdom about the future patterns of U.S. energy
supply and demand.

Cheap Energy
Reigns Supreme

A scenario in which abundant and inexpensive
supplies of oil and gas continue to fuel the enginesof economic growth in America.

Big Problem
Ahead

A chaotic, event-driven scenario.

Technology
Drives theMarketA scenario in which a variety of forces converge toreshape the market architecture of the U.S. energy
sector.

Cheap Energy
Reigns Supreme:
Challenge andResponse

Implementation of the postulated policies in this
scenario has immediate and lasting impacts.

Big Problems
Ahead: Challenge
and Response

The pattern of impacts resulting from
implementing the set of policies and measures inthis scenario is broadly similar to the patternobserved in the Cheap Energy Reigns Supreme:
Challenge and Response case. However, the25

magnitudes of these impacts are different in the twocases.
Technology
Drives theMarket:Challenge andResponse

The implementation of national emissions-control
policies has additional significant impacts. As in the
Cheap Energy Reigns Supreme and Big Problems
Ahead scenarios, the transportation and electric
power sectors experience the most significant
impacts in the respective “challenge and response”
cases.

Total Carbon Emission (MtC)

3000
Official Future

2500

Technology Drives Market

2000

Big Problem Ahead

1500

Cheap Energy Reigns Supreme

1000

Technology Drives Market:
Challenge and Response
Big Problem Ahead:
Challenge and Response

500

Cheap Energy Reigns Supreme:
Challenge and Response02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

Figure 11 Total carbon emission in the Basecase and Policy Scenarios

Economic Impact

Reference・ Each of the basecase scenarios involves continued and sustained economic growth - U.S. GDP
grows at 2.4 - 2.8 percent per year from 2000 to 2050. This demonstrates that in scenarios
without substantial policy intervention, strong GDP growth can be sustained either by low
energy prices or by continuing investment in advanced technology.
・ Despite the introduction of policies to promote capital stock turnover and to limit CO2
emissions, GDP in the Challenge and Response cases reaches approximately the same level in
2050, as is achieved in the their respective basecase scenarios. The projected differences are
only 0.3 to 1.3 percent after 50 years.
Argonne National Laboratory et al. (Argonne NL), 2004, Engines of Growth: Energy Challenges,
Opportunities, and Uncertainties in the 21st Century:
http://www.ari.vt.edu/hydrogen/Resources/BackDoc/Doc/engines_growth.pdf

26

[China] Energy and GHG Emission Scenario of China[China] Energy and GHG Emission Scenario of China
Organizations

Energy Research Institute (ERI)

Year

2005 (year of publication)

Target Year

2100

Model

IPAC-emission model

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies<Social Efficiency Change>
Various policies relative to value added such as price policy, national plan for key industry,
promote well working market;
Market oriented policies, national development policies;
Public education, price policies;
Transport development policies, public education<Technology progress>
Technology R&D promotion, market oriented policies, international collaboration;
Market oriented policies, environmental regulation;
National energy industry policies, import & export policies, tax system
A set of scenario storylines was formulated for China by defining several key driving factors such
as GDP growth, population, energy efficiency improvement, etc. All emission scenarios, as shownin Table 15, were developed under B2 scenario.
Figure 12 shows CO2 emissions in China by the year 2050.

Emission
Scenarios

Scenario
Traditional
development
scenario (S1)

Table 15 Scenario list
Contents
Future energy and environmental development
follows the experience of industrialized countries
during their initial stage of industrialization.

Conventional
scenario (S2)Economic development and energy industry follow
the experience of China in last several decades.

Energy policy
intervention
scenario (S3)Energy industry is promoted by governmental
planning, emphases on clean energy andimprovement of energy efficiency.

Environment
driven scenario(S4)

Based on the understanding of domestic
environmental
problems,
much
more
environmental policies will be introduced besides
existing energy and environmental policies.

Tiger
development
scenario (S5)A higher economic growth is assumed.

Graydevelopment
scenario (S6)

A lower economic growth is assumed.

27

Figure 12 CO2 emissions in China (ERI 2005)

Economic Impact-

Reference

Energy Research Institute (ERI), 2005, Energy and GHG Emission Scenario of China, Proceedingof the Second Conference on Climate Change in China, Beijing in 2003:
http://www.e2models.com/papers/ghgchina.pdf

28

[India] Global Climate Change Stabilization Regimes and Indian Emission Scenarios[India] Global Climate Change Stabilization Regimes and Indian Emission Scenarios

Year

Indian Institute of Management; Reliance Industries Limited; UNEP Riso Center; Maulana Azad
National Institute of Technology; National Institute for Environmental Studies
2005 (year of publication)

Target Year

2095

Model

MiniCAM model

Stabilization Level

CO2: 550 ppmv

Emission Target

550 ppmv global concentration stabilization

Organizations

Policies

Carbon tax; New and emerging technologies; Replacement of coal in all possible industries andtechnologies
The future states of India’s development were visualized as four scenarios differentiated by thetype of governance (A: centralization or B: decentralization) and the extent of market integration(liberalization and integration with global markets; 1: high and 2: fragmented). Four Indian(referred with prefix I) scenarios are named IA1, IA2, IB1 and IB2 to follow IPCC SRES
scenarios. Besides, the scenario with B2 as baseline and 550ppm stabilization was constructed. See
Table 16 for details on the scenarios.
Figure 13 shows a possible portfolio of technologies to achieve mitigation required in India tomeet to global 550ppmv stabilization. The analysis with the stabilization scenario at 550ppm for
IB2, Indian emission scenario, shows a mitigation of 53% of emissions in 2095 and 31% in
cumulative emissions for 105 years.

Scenario
IA1

Table 16 Scenario list
Contents
The type of governance: centralization
The extent of market integration: highIA2

The type of governance: centralization
The extent of market integration: fragmented

IB1

The type of governance: decentralization
The extent of market integration: highIB2

The type of governance: decentralization
The extent of market integration: fragmented
The reference (BAU) scenarios

B2-ppm550

A scenario with B2 as baseline and 550ppm
stabilization

Emission
Scenarios

29

CO2 capture & storage
Energy efficiency
H2
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
550ppm

1000

600
400

Mt-C

800

200

1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

0
2095

Figure 13 A possible portfolio of technologies to achieve mitigation required in India to meetglobal 550ppmv stabilization (IIM 2005)

Economic Impact-

Reference

Indian Institute of Management et al. (IIM), 2005, Global Climate Change Stabilization Regimes
and Indian Emission Scenarios - Lessons for Modelling of Development Country Transitions,
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer, Special, Issue : -30

[Australia] Long-Term Greenhouse Gas scenarios[Australia] Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
Organizations

The Australia InstituteYear2002 (year of publication)

Target Year

2050

Model

-

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

60 % reduction in national GHG emissions by 2050 relative to 1998-99 levels

Policies

Australia’s GHG emissions under current conditions and those envisaged in the deep cuts scenario
are presented in Figure 14.

Emission
Scenarios

Figure 14 GHG emissions by sector under the deep cuts scenario (TAI 2002)

Economic Impact-

Reference

The Australia Institute (TAI), 2002. Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios - A pilot study of how
Australia can achieve deep cuts in emissions, Discussion Paper Number 48:
http://www.tai.org.au/WhatsNew_Files/WhatsNew/DP48sum.pdf

31

[Australia] A Clean Energy Future for Australia[Australia] A Clean Energy Future for Australia

Year

Australian Energy Performance Contracting Association; Australian Business Council for
Sustainable Energy; Australian Gas Association; Australian Wind Energy Association; Bioenergy
Australia; Renewable Energy Generators of Australia; WWF Australia
2004 (release year)

Target Year

2040

Model

-

Stabilization Level-

Organizations

Emission Target

Policies

50 % reduction in national CO2 emissions from the stationary energy sector relative to 2001 levelby 2040
Policies urgently needed include:・ Substantially increase the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET);・ Mandate strict greenhouse intensity limits on any proposal to build a new coal-fired power
station or to refurbish an existing one - these limits would require less CO2 emissions per unitof electricity sent out than the best existing combined cycle natural gas power station;
・ Implement national mandatory minimum energy and greenhouse performance standards andlabelling for all appliances and equipment with capacity to use 50 watts or greater ofelectricity. Make standards increasingly stringent every 5 years;
・ For all commercial buildings mandate minimum energy and greenhouse performance standards
based on the Australian Building Greenhouse Rating Scheme;
・ Mandate that a solar, heat pump or solar compatible natural gas hot water system with low
standby losses be installed in every proposal for a new or substantially renovated residentialbuilding;
・ Establish a target for cogeneration and provide grants on a dollar for dollar basis to assist in
funding feasibility studies for specific projects;
・ Change the MRET regulation to encourage dedicated tree energy crops for the purpose of
growing biomass fuel on land that was cleared before 1990;
・ Provide specific support for the development of a biomass roadmap for Australia and its
implementation;
・ Consult widely on, develop and implement consistent planning guidelines across all levels ofgovernment for the establishment of wind farms;
・ Revise the National Electricity Code to ensure distributed generators receive fair network
access and pricing, considering location of generators and time of day of generation.
Several scenarios are developed.. Three of them are shown in Table 17.
Figure 15 shows the GHG emission reductions achieved under Clean Energy Scenario 2. Clean
Energy Scenario 2 brings 50 % reduction in national CO2 emissions from the stationary energy
sector relative to 2001 level in 2040.

Emission
Scenarios

Scenario
Baseline Scenario 1

Table 17 Scenario list
Contents
GHG emissions increase by 21 percent to 310
million tonnes.

Clean Energy
Scenario 2

GHG emissions decrease by 50 percent to 131
million tonnes.

Medium Efficiency

This scenario demonstrates that with effective newpolicies, energy demand such can be contained to32

only 25 percent increase between 2001 and 2040
–achieved through the widespread implementationof cost effective energy efficiency improvement.

Figure 15 GHG emission reductions achieved under Clean Energy Scenario 2 (WWFA 2004b)

Economic Impact

ReferenceIn the long term, as oil becomes scarce, electricity prices are likely to rise in the Baseline Scenario
as well, dragging up the prices of natural gas and exportable coal. Environmental taxes or levies,
or a substantial amount of capture and underground storage of CO2 from coal-fired power
stations, could double the price of coal-fired electricity. So, under a range of circumstances, ourClean Energy Scenarios could be less expensive than the Baseline Scenario in 2040.
・ WWF Australia et al. (WWFA), 2004a, A Clean Energy Future for Australia:
http://wwf.org.au/publications/clean_energy_future_report.pdf
・ WWF Australia et al. (WWFA), 2004b, A Clean Energy Future for Australia (summary):
http://wwf.org.au/publications/clean_energy_future_summary.pdf

33

[Japan] Citizens’ Open Model Projects[Japan] Citizens’ Open Model Projects
Organizations

Citizens’ Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios (COMPASS) [NGO]Year

2003 (release year)

Target Year

2030

Model

Economic, Simulation, Top-Down Model

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

Reducing environmental risks; Renewable energy and energy saving; Economical recovery byindustries with environmental strategies, and creating true affluence immeasurable by GDP. Aim
to lead the world with environmental technologies and policies; Phasing out nuclear power;
post-materialism
Three scenarios, as shown in Table 18, are developed.
Figure 16 shows the CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption. Compared with the 1990
emission level, emissions in 2030 will be 107 under Scenario A, 91 under Scenario B, and 58 under
Scenario C. Scenario C will help make CO2 emissions constant. Under Scenario B, CO2 emissions
in 2010 will be at the 1990 level. Combined with cuts in CFC substitutes and other efforts, Japan
would be able to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target.

Scenario
Scenario A

Table 18 Scenario list
Contents
This scenario explores what will happen if thecurrent structure (economic, industrial, energy
supply and demand) grows linearly. This is what
( Advisory Committee for Natural Resources andEnergy) ACNRE calls its “Reference Case.”

Scenario B

This scenario overcomes industrial hollowing by
making the environmental industry into thenext-generation strategic industry, and attempts toachieve
both
economic
vitalization
andenvironmental conservation within the present
socioeconomic framework.

Scenario C

This scenario anticipates socioeconomic changes in
the 21st century, during which the achievements of
the IT revolution will become apparent, andpost-materialism will make headway in thedeveloped countries.

Emission
Scenarios

34

Figure 16 CO2 Emissions from energy consumption (COMPASS 2004)

Economic Impact
Reference

In scenario B the cumulative government debt will be 3.4 times GDP (scenario A 4.5 times). In
scenario C the 2030 GDP will be about that of 1985.
Citizens’ Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios (COMPASS), 2004,
Citizens’ Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios:
http://www.isep.or.jp/shimin-enecho/presen_pdf/COMPASS_finalreport_en050428.pdf

35

[Japan] 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap[Japan] 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap
Organizations

Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF)

Year

2004 (release year)

Target Year

2050

Model

MARKAL

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

60% reduction in CO2 emissions relative to 2010 level (based on Kyoto protocol) in 2050

Policies

Thermal utilization of nuclear energy; Renewable energy; CO2 capture and storage
In order to examine the long-term meaning of nuclear power utilization, two scenarios were drawn
up as show in Table 19.

Scenario
Expansion
Emission
Scenarios

Phase out

Economic Impact
Reference

Table 19 Scenario list
Contents
Nuclear energy utilization is expanded in the future.
Thermal utilization of nuclear energy is utilized in2020.
Nuclear energy utilization is phased out in the
future.
Renewable energy available scale is going to expand.
CO2 capture and storage technology is utilized.

Energy supply cost in the “phase out” scenario rises 22% from that in the “Expansion” scenario in
2050.
Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), 2004, 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap [in Japanese]:
http://www.jaif.or.jp/ja/news/2004/1202vision.pdf

36

[Japan] Energy supply and demand outlook to 2030

[Japan] Energy supply and demand outlook to 2030
Organizations

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

Year

2005 (release year)

Target Year

2030

Model

-

Stabilization Level-

Emission Target

Not defined

Policies

Energy conservation; Heat pump; New energy; Fuel cells; Dispersed-type energy; Nuclear power
Various scenarios toward 2030, as shown in Table 20, were developed and a sensitivity analysis
was performed.
Figure 17 shows the CO2 emissions in various cases.

Scenario
Reference case

Emission
Scenarios

Table 20 Scenario list
Contents
The reference scenario. Based on the current
technical system and polices, economic society,population structure, and market pursues in asimilar way to now.

Energytechnology
development
case

Energy efficiency and new energy develops largely
compared to the reference case. Following twocases are analyzed.
・ Energy efficiency development case・ New energy development case

Nuclear powercase

A case in which the number of nuclear power
stations increases compared to that of the referencecase.
・ Nuclear power high case: 16 new plants
・ Nuclear power low case: 7 new plants

External macro
factor caseA case in which uncertainty due to external macro
factor trend is taken into account.
・ Economic growth: high case & low case・ Oil price: high case & low case

Another
supposed caseA case that deals with issues that are impossible tobe taken into account in the model. These issues areinvestigated by separating them from the model.

Combinationcase

A case which combines the energy efficiency
development case and economic growth high case,or nuclear power low case, or both of them.
・ Energy efficiency development case
+ Economic growth high case・ Energy efficiency development case
+ Nuclear power low case37

・ Energy efficiency development case
+ Economic growth high case
+ Nuclear power low case

Figure 17 CO2 Emissions in various cases

Economic Impact-

Reference

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), 2005, Energy supply and demand outlook to2030 [in Japanese]: http://www.meti.go.jp/report/downloadfiles/g50328b01j.pdf

38

[Japan] Strategic Technology Roadmap (Energy Sector)[Japan] Strategic Technology Roadmap (Energy Sector)
Organizations

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

Year

2006 (release year)

Target Year

2100

Model

-

Stabilization Level

Not defined

Emission Target

Policies<Assumption of resource constrains (global)>
While the world economy continues to grow, if CO2 emissions can be maintained at the samelevel as the current condition, CO2 emission intensity per GDP (annual CO2 emissions / GDP)should improve as follows, compared to the current status:
・ 1/3 in 2050
・ Less than 1/10 in 2100 ( more improvement after is considered)<Condition of the consideration of technologies in Japan>
Based on the consideration that we have achieved the maximum level of the efficiency
improvement until today, we assume that we will continue to lead the world also in the future.
Therefore, we set the same level of intensity improvement rate as the one derived for theassumption of the environment constraints above (global).
Backcasting; Constraints for fossil resources and the environment; Use of fossil resources with
CO2 capture and sequestration; Use of nuclear energy; Use of renewable energy combined withultimate energy-saving; Energy-saving; Highly efficient utilization; Self-sustaining; Improvement of
conversion efficiency
Case studies by setting an extreme condition on the energy supply and demand structure were
executed as shown in Table 21.

Emission
Scenarios

Scenario
CASE A

Table 21 Scenario list
Contents
Maximum use of fossil resources such as coal
combined with CO2 capture and sequestration

CASE B

Maximum use of nuclear energy

CASE C

Maximum use of renewable energy combined withultimate energy-saving

Economic Impact-

Reference

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), 2006, Strategic Technology Roadmap (Energy
Sector) ~ Energy technology Vision 2100~ : http://www.iae.or.jp/2100/main.pdf

39Appendix: References Concerning Long-Term Emission Scenarios
JAPAN
NIES: National Institute of Environmental Studies (http://www.nies.go.jp/)
w Interim Report (2004)
w Resource (in Japanese) (2004-05)
NIES & Kyoto University (http://www.nies.go.jp/index-j.html & http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/)
w Scenario approach toward a low-carbon society in Japan. (2006)
MOE: Ministry of The Environment (http://www.env.go.jp/)
w Four socio-economic scenarios Development of GHGs emission reduction scenarios (in Japanese)(2001)
w Report of Technology Assessment Committee (in Japanese) (2004)
METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (http://www.meti.go.jp/)
w Energy supply and demand outlook to 2030 (in Japanese) (2005)w Long term Energy Technology Vision (in English) (2005)w Long term Energy Technology Vision (in Japanese) (2005)
JAIF: Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Inc (http://www.jaif.or.jp/)
w 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap (in English, Abstract) (2004)
w 2050 Nuclear Vision and Roadmap (in Japanese) (2004)
COMPASS: Citizens’ Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios(http://www.isep.or.jp/shimin-enecho/)w Towards a Sustainable Energy Society: Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Our Energy,
Environment, and Economy (in Japanese and English) (2004)
CZECH
Ministry of Environment (http://www.env.cz/)
w National Climate Change Plan (2004)
DENMARK
Danish Environmental Protection Agency (http://www.mst.dk/)
w Denmark's national strategy for sustainable development (2002)
w Scenarios for society and the environment in 2020 to encourage debate (Danish, Full) (2002)
w Scenarios for society and the environment in 2020 to encourage debate (English, Summary) (2002)
FINLAND
VTT: Technical Research Centre of Finland
w Scenarios for the Finnish energy system and emissions. Study made for the CLIMTECH Programme(2003)TEKES: Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation
w Technology and Climate Change CLIMTECH 1999-2002. 14/2002 Final Report (Finnish) (2002)
w Technology and Climate Change Programme (Climtech) (2002)
w The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emissions reduction: The case of Finland. (A.
Lehtila, et al.) (2004)

40

FRANCEIDDRI: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales(http://www.iddri.org/iddri/index.htm)
w Climate change policies: Analysis of sectoral changes in Europe (2004)
w Scenarios Under A Carbon Constraint: Long-Term Implications For Industry (-)
LEPII-EPE: Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - ledépartement Énergie et Politiques de l'Environnement(http://web.upmf-grenoble.fr/iepe/aindex.html)
w POLES Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (2001)
w Etude pour une prospective énergétique concernant la France (2004)
w The climate change challenge and transitions for radical changes in the European steel industry (2005)
w The POLES model (-)
w Energy And Environmental Policy Group (-)
DGEMP: Direction générale de l’Énergie et des Matières premières(http://www.industrie.gouv.fr/energie/sommaire.htm)
w Energy consumption and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in the service sector in
France (2001)
w Energy baseline Scenario for France to 2030 (2004)
MIES: French Interministerial Task Force for Climate Change (Mission Interministérielle del'Effet de Serre) (http://www.effet-de-serre.gouv.fr/fr/presentation/pres.htm)
w Reducing CO2 emissions fourfold in France by 2050: Introduction to the debate (2004)
GERMANYWBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change (http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_home_engl.html)
w Charging the use of Global commons (2002)
w Climate Protection Strategies for 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond (2003)
w World in Transition : Towards Sustainable Energy Systems (2003)
w Renewable energies for sustainable development: Impulses for renewables (2004)
Wuppertal Institute (http://www.wupperinst.org/Sites/home1.html)
w Eingesparte Energie neu nutzen (2001)
w Deutscher Bundestag. Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Supply Against the Background of
Globalisation and Liberalisation (2002)w Long term scenarios for a sustainable energy future in Germany (2002)
w Energy system aspects of natural gas as an alternative fuel in transport (2003)
w Overview of ongoing activities on the future design of climate change (B. Brouns) (2003)
w The Role of Hydrogen for the Long Term Development of Sustainable Energy Systems —a Case
Study for Germany (2004)
w Towards a Sustainable Energy System: Integrating Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency is the Key(2004)
BMU: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit(http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/)w Ecologically Optimized Extension of Renewable Energy Utilization in Germany (2004)
NETHERLAND
RIVM (http://www.rivm.nl/en/)41

w Mitigation Scenarios In A World Oriented At Sustainable Development: The Role Of Technology,
Efficiency And Timming / D.P. Van Vuuren, Et Al. (2000)
w Climate change-a permanent concern / M. T. J. Kok, et al. (2002)
w Climate change in the Netherlands Consequences and adaptation options / A. Verhagen (eds).
(2002)
w Strategic for long-term climate policy / M. Berk, et al. (2002)
w Regional costs and benefits of alternative post Kyoto climate regimes (D.P. van Vuuren, et al.) (2003)
Wageningen Universiteit (http://www.wau.nl/)
w Climate OptiOns for the Long Term (COOL) Global Dialogue synthesis report (2001)
w Keeping our options open (M. Berk, et al.) (2001)
w Strategic vision on long-term climate policies for the European Energy sector (M. Andersson) (2001)
w Strategic vision on long-term climate policies for the European transport sector (W. Tuinstra) (2001)
w Climate OptiOns for the Long-term (COOL) - National Dialogue (2002)
w Climate OptiOns for the Long term - Final Report Volume A COOL – Synthesis Report (2002)
w Climate OptiOns for the Long Term – Final Report Volume C European Dialogue (2002)
w Climate OptiOns for the Long Term – Final Report Volume E Evaluating the COOL Dialogues(2002)
ECN: Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (http://www.ecn.nl/en/)w Burden differentiation GHG emission undercurrents and mitigation costs / J.R. Ybema et al. (2002)
w Global warming and social innovation: The challenge of a climate-neutral society / M. T. J. Kok, et al.
(2002)
w Exploring the Possibilities for Setting up Sustainable Energy Systems for the Long Term: Two Visions
for the Dutch Energy System in 2050 / D. Treffersa (2005)
w NRP : Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (-)
MEA: Ministry of Economic Affairs
w Energy and society in 2050: The Netherlands in different worlds (2000)
SWEDEN
Regeringskansliet: Ministry of Sustainable Development(http://justitie.regeringen.se/sb/d/340/a/46467/m/wai)
w The Swedish Environmental Objectives –Interim Targets and Action Strategies
Bill 2000 / 01:130 (2001)
w Sweden and the challenge of climate change (2005)
w Fact Sheet: National climate policy in global cooperation (2006)

Summary of Gov.

Naturvårdsverket: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency(http://www.internat.environ.se/index.html)
w Kyoto and Beyond Issues and Options in the Global Response to Climate Change Kyoto and Beyond(2002)
w The Swedish Climate Strategy Summary of Gov. Bill 2001/02:55 (2003)
w Swedish Climate Strategy A basis for the evaluation of Swedish climate work (2004)
The Vision Center for Futures Creation (http://www.framtidsbygget.se/center/index.htm)
w A Tale of the Future (1999)
UK
DTI: Department of Trade and Industry (http://www.dti.gov.uk/)
w Energy Paper 68: Energy projections for the UK (2000)

42

w Energy White Paper - Our energy future - creating a low carbon economy (2002)
w Energy White Paper - Our energy future (Summary; Japanese) (2002)
w Energy White Paper - Supplementary Annexes (2002)w Long-term reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the UK (2002)
w Economics Paper No. 4 – Options for a Low Carbon Future (2003)
w First annual report on implementation of the Energy White Paper (2004)w Second annual report on the implementation of the Energy White Paper (2005)
w Our Energy Challenge (2006)
ICCEPT: Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology(http://www.iccept.ic.ac.uk/welcome1.html)
w Assessment of Technological Options to Address Climate Change (2002)
w Induced technical change in energy and environmental modeling: analytic approaches and policy
implications (2002)
RCEP: Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (http://www.iccept.ic.ac.uk/welcome1.html)
w Energy - The Changing Climate, 22nd Report (2000)
w Special Report Biomass as a Renewable Energy Source (2004)
DEFRA: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (http://www.defra.gov.uk/)
w Projections of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2000)
w UK Climate Change Programme (2000)
w Ancillary Effects Of Green House Gas Mitigation Policies (2002)
w Government response to the Twenty-second Report (2003)
w The impacts of climate change: Implications for Defra (2003)
w The Scientific Case For Setting A Long-Term Emission Reduction Target (2003)
w Scientific and Technical Aspects of Climate Change, including impacts and adaptation and associatedcosts (2004)
w Assessment of Emerging Innovative Energy Efficient Technologies as part of the Energy Efficiency
Innovation Review (2005)
w Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto (2005)
w Policies for energy efficiency in the UK household sector (2005)
w Comparison of UK and best international standards energy standards as at February 2005 (2006)
w Review and development of carbon dioxide abatement curves for available technologies as part of theEnergy Efficiency Innovation Review (2006)
UKCIP: UK Climate Impacts Programme (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/default.asp)
w Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment: A guide to their use in the UK
Climate Impacts Programme (2001)
w Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom (2002)
w Strategic Environmental Assessment and Climate Change: Guidance for Practitioners (2004)
w A changing climate for business (2005)
w Climate change and London’s transport systems (2005)
w Climate Change and the Historic Environment (2005)
HM Treasury (http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/)
w Accompanying slides for the Oxonia Distinguished Lecture (2005)
w Lecture notes for the Oxonia Distinguished Lecture (2005)
w Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change 'What is the Economics of Climate Change?’(2005)
w What is the Economics of Climate Change Technical annex (2005)
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (http://tyndall.webapp1.uea.ac.uk/index.shtml)

43

w Reviewing organisational use of scenarios: case study - evaluating UK energy policy options (2002)
w Decarbonising the UK: Energy for a climate conscious future (2005)w Lower Carbon Futures The 40% House Project (2005)
w Modelling energy use in the global building stock: a pilot survey to identify available data sources(2005)
w The contribution of energy service contracting to a low carbon economy (2005)
w The Hydrogen energy economy: its long term role in greenhouse gas reduction (2005)
w World transport scenarios project: (2005)
RUSSIAw Russian Energy Strategy 2020 (2002)
CANADA
NRCan : Natural Resource Canada ()w Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update (1999)
w Energy Technology Futures (2000)
w Sustainable Development Strategy: Moving Forward (2004)
w Economic Instruments for Long-term Reductions in Energy-based Carbon Emissions (2005)
w Project GREEN: Moving Forward on Climate Change (2005)
ICF
w Long Term Energy and Climate Strategies for Canada (Ralph Torrie) (2005)
USA
EIA: Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.doe.gov/)
w Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (2005)
w International Energy Outlook 2005 (2005)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (http://www.ornl.gov/)
w Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (2000)
Pew Center (http://www.pewclimate.org/)
w Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, andTurkey (2002)
w A Long-Term Target: Framing the Climate Effort (2003)
w Multi-Gas Contributors to Global Climate Change: Climate Impacts and Mitigation Costs of
Non-CO2 Gases (2003)
w Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions From U.S. Transportation (2003)
w U.S. Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century / I. Mintzer, et al. (2003)
w Induced Technological Change and Climate Policy (2004)
w Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and GHG Emission Standards Around the World(2005)
w The Cost of U.S. Forest-based Carbon Sequestration (2005)
w The U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation (2005)
w Towards a Climate-Friendly Built Environment (2005)
ARI: Virginia Tech Advanced Research Institutew An Integrated Analysis of Policies that Increase Investments in Advanced
Energy-Efficient/Low-Carbon Technologies (2004)44

w Engines of Growth: Energy Challenges, Opportunities, and Uncertainties in the 21st Century (2004)
AUSTRALIAThe Australian Institute (http://www.tai.org.au/)
w Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios (2002)
WWF- Australia (http://wwf.org.au/)
w A Clean Energy Future for Australia (2004)
w A Clean Energy Future for Australia summary (2004)
Victorian Greenhouse Strategy (http://www.greenhouse.vic.gov.au/)
w Greenhouse Challenge for Energy (2004)
w Victorian Government's Response to the Productivity Commission's Draft Report: Energy Efficiency(2005)
w Victorian Greenhouse Strategy action plan update 2005 (2005)
Melbourne 2030 (http://www.melbourne2030.vic.gov.au/)
w Melbourne 2030 – Planning for sustainable growth (2002)
NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand Climate Change Office (http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/)
w Review Of Climate Change Policies (2005)
CHINA
ERI: Energy Research Institute (http://www.eri.org.cn/)
w Energy and GHG Emission Scenario of China (Jiang, K., and H. Xiulian) (2005)
RIVM (http://www.rivm.nl/en/)w Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century? Exploration of baseline development
and mitigation options (Detlef van Vuuren, Zhou Fengqib, Bert de Vriesa, Jiang Kejun, Cor
Gravelandb Li Yun.) (2005)
Tsinghua University
w The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO
modeling (Wenying Chen) (2005)
INDIA
Indian Institute of Management (http://www.iimahd.ernet.in/)w Analysis of long-term energy and carbon emission scenarios for India (Nair, R., P.R. Shukla, M.
Kapshe, A. Garg and A. Rana) (2003)
w Future greenhouse gas and local pollutant emissions for India: Policy links and Disjoints (Amit Garg,
P.R. Shukla, Debyani Ghosh, Manmohan Kapshe and Rajesh Nair) (2003)
w Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios (Shukla, P.R., A. Garg, and M. Kapshe) (2003)
w Indian scenarios and the AIM/Enduse database (P.R. Shukla, Ashish Rana, Amit Garg, Manmohan
Kapshe and Rajesh Nair) (2004)
w Global Climate Change Stabilization Regimes and Indian Emission Scenarios: Lessons for Modelingof Developing Country Transitions (Shukla P. R., A. Rana, A. Garg, M. Kapshe, and R. Nair) (2005)
Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources (http://mnes.nic.in/)
w New and Renewable Energy Policy Statement 2005 (2005)

45

BRAZIL
Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment – CENTROCLIMA(http://www.centroclima.org.br/), and Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro/COPPE.
w The Development and Climate Project. Phase 1. Country Study: Brazil (2004)
SOUTH AFRICA
University of Cape Town – Energy Research Centre (http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/)
w Sustainable Development and Climate Change in South Africa. Energy Futures (2003)
w Energy Policies for Sustainable Development in South Africa: Options for the Future (2006)
EUROPEAN UNION
EC (http://europa.eu.int/comm/index_en.htm)
w Options to Reduce Methane Emissions (1998)
w Options to Reduce Nitrous Oxide Emissions (1998)
w Reduction of the emissions of HFC's, PFC's and SF6 in the European Union (1999)
w Towards an Analytical Capacity in Costing of Abatement Options for Forestry and Agricultural
Carbon sinks (2002)
w Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025 (2003)
w Towards a Post-2012 Climate Change Regime (2005)
EEA (http://www.eea.eu.int/main_html)
w Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe (2004)
w Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system (2005)
w European Environment Outlook (2005)

INTERNATIONAL ORGANAIZATIONSIPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/)w Climate Change 2001: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
UNEP (http://www.unep.org/)
w Global Environmental Outlook3 (2002)
IEA (http://www.iea.org/)
w Beyond Kyoto Energy Dynamics and Climate Stabilisation (2002)
w Oil Crises & Climate Challenges - 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries (2004)
w Energy to 2050 Scenarios for a Sustainable Future (2005)
w Projected Costs of Generating Electricity -- 2005 Update (2005)
w Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (2005)
w World Energy Outlook 2005 (2005)
PRIVATE COMPANIES
Shell (http://www.shell.com/home/)
w Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 (2001)
w The new Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (2005)
w The new Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 Executive Summary (2005)

46

Exxon Mobile (http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/)
w The Outlook for Energy - A View to 2030 (2005)
Goldman Sachs (http://www.gs.com/)w Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (2003)
SIEMENS (http:// www.siemens.com/)
w HORIZON2020 (2004)
DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH (http://www.dbresearch.com/
w Global Growth Centres 2020. Formel-G for 34 economies (2005)
OHTERS
WEC: World Energy Council (http://www.worldenergy.org/)w Energy for Tomorrow's World - Acting Now (-)
w Global Energy Scenarios To 2050 And Beyond (-)
GSG: Global Scenario Group (http://www.worldenergy.org/)
w Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (1997)
w Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability (1998)
w Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes (2002)
w Great Transition (2002)
WBCSD: World Business Council for Sustainable Development (http://www.wbcsd.org/)
w Toward a sustainable paper cycle (1996)
w Energy 2050 - Risky business (1999)
w Building a Better Future: Innovation, technology and sustainable development (2000)
w The wizard of us (2000)
w Innovation, Technology, Sustainability, and Society (2002)
w Move. Sustain (2002)
w Sustainability in the Electricity Utility sector (2002)
w Toward a Sustainable Cement Industry (2002)
w WBCSD sector projects (2002)
w Facts & Trends to 2050 - Energy & climate change (2004)
w Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability (2004)
w Pathways to 2050 - Energy and Climate Change (2005)

47

"Research Project on Establishing of Methodology to Evaluate Middle to Long
term Environmental Policy Options toward Low Carbon Society in Japan (Japan
Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050)" (FY2004-2008)
The first great step to prevent global warming was taken by Kyoto Protocol which came into effect on
Feb.16, 2005. But it is necessary to reduce GHG (Greenhouse gases) emissions drastically to stabilize
climate change. Japan is also required to assess its long-term global warming policy. A large part ofsocial infrastructure is likely to be replaced by 2050. It would be possible to propose concrete policy
packages including institutional change, technology development, and lifestyle change toward low
carbon society.
This project focuses on the following issues: 1) long-term scenario development study to integrate
environmental options consistently using simulation models, 2) long-term GHG reduction target
setting considering effectiveness and validity, and 3) assessment of environmental options
considering future socio-economic conditions in a) urban system, b) information technology (IT)society, c) transportation system, and d) industrial change. We have the above 6 sub projects
consisting of research experts in those areas and develop social and technically consistent middle
and long-term global warming policy. To show probable paths toward a low carbon society in Japan
which is compatible with economic development, would enhance public interest and lead to social
and lifestyle changes. We propose to offer the latest research findings.
We have simulated the required GHG reduction for Japan. We have investigated the scenarios toward2050 with back-casting method. The desired Japan 2050 future images with 60-80% GHG reduction
will be set and the path considering economic impact, technological possibility, institutional andlifestyle change will be simulated objectively and consistently.
[Researchers]
Project Leader: Shuzo Nishioka (NIES)Team Leader: Mikiko Kainuma(NIES) for scenario study, Norichika Kanie(TITech) for target setting,Keisuke Hanaki (University of Tokyo: UT) for urban system, Jun Fujimoto(UT) for ICT (Information andCommunication Technology) based society, Yuichi Moriguchi(NIES) for transportation system,
Yoshifumi Fujii(Bunkyo University) for industrial change, and about 50 other researchers.

Further information: http://2050.nies.go.jp/
Contact person: Junichi Fujino (NIES), fuji@nies.go.jp
http://2050.nies.go.jp