The Role of Technology in a Low Carbon Society

Expert Workshop on Developing
Visions of a Low-Carbon Society
Through Sustainable Development
Jae Edmonds
Joint Global Change Research InstituteJune 15, 20061

Acknowledgements• Thanks to Ministry of the Environment Japan and the UK
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affair, and• Thanks to the Sponsors of GTSP Phase II– Battelle Memorial Institute– California Energy Commission– Electric Power Research Institute—Climate Programs– Electric Power Research Institute—Nuclear Programs– Gas Research Institute– General Motors– Kansai Electric Power– National Institutes for Environmental Studies (Japan)– Rio Tinto– US Department of Energy—Office of Science– US Department of Energy—Office of Fossil Energy

2

GTSP Phase I• The GTSP started in 1998.
• GTSP has conducted research
to assess the role thattechnology can play inaddressing the long-term risksof climate change• Argued that technology was acore response to managing therisks of climate change on a parwith improving the climate
science, adapting to climatechange, and emissions
mitigation.
3

Some Points• New Scenarios—an oil market transition story.
• The challenge of climate change—a long term problem
with implications for today.

• Stabilization of climate change—means big changes in theglobal energy system in both the near term and the longterm.

• CO2 prices that stabilize climate cost-effectively are risewith time.

• Energy and greenhouse gas emissions—non-energy
policy and technology matter to energy– Non-CO2 gases– Agriculture and land use

4

Development alonga reference path5

MiniCAM—An Integrated Assessment
Model
Emissions, Atmosphere, Climate

Emissions: Energy-economy-agriculture-land-use model

15 gaseous emissions—linked to associated human activities
2095 time horizon

14 Regions
14 Regions6

Demographics
A world of 8.5 billion people & demographic transitions
10,000

100%

India

9,000

India

90%

Southeast Asia
8,000

China

Southeast Asia
80%

China

Korea
7,000

JapanJapan

Australia_NZ

6,000millions

Korea
70%

Middle EastAfrica

5,000

Australia_NZ

60%

Middle East
Africa50%

Latin America
4,000

Former Soviet Union

Latin America
40%

Former Soviet Union

Eastern Europe
3,000Western Europe
Canada2,000

Eastern Europe
30%

Western Europe
Canada

20%

USA
1,000

USA
10%01975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

0%1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

YearYear7Economics
A $250+ trillion world with a changing economic balance
100%$300

India

India
Southeast Asia
$250

China

90%

Southeast Asia
China

80%trillions 2000USD (PPP)

Korea
Japan$200

Korea
70%

Japan

Australia_NZ
Middle EastAfrica

$150

$100

Middle East
Africa50%

Latin America

Latin America

40%
Former Soviet Union

Former Soviet Union

Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe

Western Europe
Canada$50

Australia_NZ

60%

30%

Western Europe
20%

CanadaUSAUSA

10%$0
2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

0%
2005

2020

Year

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Year

2005=48 trillion 2000$ U.S.
2050=122 trillion 2000$ U.S.

8Primary Energy
GLOBALPrimary Energy Consumption

1,400
1,200
1,000Wind
Solar
NuclearHydroelectric Power
Commercial Biomass
Traditional Biomass
CoalGasUnconventional Oil
Conventional Oil

EJ/y

A 1,400 EJ/yworld,
dominated byfossil fuels, but
withincreasingly
disperse
sources

1,600

800
600
400
2000
2005

2020

2035

2050
Year

2065

2080

2095

9

The Oil Market—global600• Conventional oil
500• Shale oil and400

synfuels become
the dominant
forms of liquid
fuels in thesecond half of thecentury.

• Implication—higher CO2emissions.

EJ/yproduction islimited.

Gas to Liquids
Coal LiquifactionBiomass Liquids
Conventional Oil
Unconventional Oil

300

200

10001990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 209510

End-use Energy
A 900+ EJ world with rapidly growing transport demand
Global Final Energy by Sector

Global Final Energy by Fuel

1000
900
800
700

1000

Buildings

900

Industry

800

Transportation

700

EJ

EJ

Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Electricity

Hydrogen

600

600
500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

10010002005

Liquids

2020

2035

2050 2065

2080

209502005

2020 2035

2050

2065 2080

2095
11

End-use energy by sector—Global

A 900+ EJ world with rapidly growing transport demand
Final Energy: Global Buildings

Final Energy: Global Industry

400300400
Liquids

Natural Gas

CoalBiomass

Electricity

Hydrogen

Liquids
350300Natural Gas

CoalBiomass

Electricity

Hydrogen350300250
EJ

EJ250200400200Liquids

Natural Gas

CoalBiomass

Electricity

Hydrogen

250
EJ

350

Final Energy: Global Transport

200150150

150

100

10010050505002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 209502005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 209502005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

12

Electric Power
500

Other
Wind
PV
Hydro
Gen_IV
Gen_III
Gen_II_LWR
Biomass (IGCC)
Biomass (existing)
Biomass (conv)
Coal (IGCC)_CCS
Coal (IGCC)
Coal (existing)Coal (conv pul)Gas (peak load conv)
Gas (existing)Gas (CC)_CCS
Gas (CC)Gas (base load conv)
Oil (peak load conv)
Oil (IGCC)_CCS

450

400

WindPV

350
Hydro

EJ/y300

Gen III

250

Biomass

200

Coal IGCC

150

Coal PC

100
Gas CC

Oil (IGCC)
Oil (existing)
Oil (base load conv)

5002005

Oil IGCC
2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
13

Fossil Fuel CO2 by Sector of Origin
Global100%2520

GtC/yr15

Transportation
Liquid Production
Gas
HydrogenElectricity
Industry
Buildings

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%40%

1030%
20%

510%
0%

0
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

14

The challenge ofclimate change

15

Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations• Stabilization ofgreenhouse gas
concentrations is thegoal of the Framework
Convention on ClimateChange.

• Stabilization means that
GLOBAL emissions
must peak in thedecades ahead andthen decline indefinitelythereafter.

• Climate change is along-term, century to millennial problem—with implications
for today. It will not be solved with a single treaty, singletechnology, by a single country, or by a quick fix.

16

Scenario Architecture

Level
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4

Radiative Forcing
From Preindustrial(Wm-2)
3.4
4.7
5.8
6.7

Approximate
2100 CO2 Level(ppmv)
450
550
650
750

The Gases
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF617

Implementing Stabilization• Assume current policies are effective– U.S. 18% reduction in GHG/GDP by 2012
– Kyoto Protocol• Assume all nations participate insupplementary programs to achieve
stabilization of radiative forcing– Perfect “Where Flexibility”;– Use WRE methodology to limit fossil fuel CO2 emissions;– Use GWPs to compute prices for non-CO2 GHGs.

18LEC10

Composition of Radiative Forcing
Radiative Forcing by Gas: 2000 and 2100
8CO2Short-Lived F-gases
Long-Lived F-gases
N2OCH476Wm 25432102000

Reference
2100

Level 42100

Level 32100

Level 22100

Level 12100

19

Greenhouse Gases—CO2

CO2 Concentrations

Fossil and Industrial CO2 Emissions

800

30GTC/Year

20700

MINICAM_Level1
MINICAM_Level2
MINICAM_Level3
MINICAM_Level4
MINICAM_REF

500

15750 ppm

10650 ppm
550 ppm

5450 ppm
02000750 ppm
650 ppm
550 ppm

600ppmv

25450 ppm400
MINICAM_Level1
MINICAM_Level2
MINICAM_Level3
MINICAM_Level4
MINICAM_REF

300
20010002020

2040

20602080

2100

20002020204020602080

2100

20

LEC11Greenhouse Gases—CH4CH4 Em issions

CH4 Concentrations

400

2,500

350
2,000

250
1,500ppbv

MT CH4/Year

300

200
150
10050

MINICAM_REF
MINICAM_Lev el4
MINICAM_Lev el3
MINICAM_Lev el2
MINICAM_Lev el1

1,000500

MINICAM_REF
MINICAM_Lev el4
MINICAM_Lev el3
MINICAM_Lev el2
MINICAM_Lev el1002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

YearYear21

Implications for energy
and technology

22

The Carbon Price
Global Value of Carbon
800
700$/tonne (2000$)

600
500

MINICAM_Level1

450 ppm

MINICAM_Level2
MINICAM_Level3
MINICAM_Level4400550 ppm
650 ppm300
200750 ppm

10002020

2040

2060

2080

2100

23

Effect on consumers

Impact of $100/tonne
C on fuel prices
Fuel

Added
Cost ($)

Crude Oil ($/bbl)$12.19Gasoline ($/gal)$0.26

Heating Oil ($/gal)$0.29

Wellhead Natural Gas ($/tcf)$1.49

Residential Natural Gas ($/tcf)$1.50

Minemouth Coal ($/short ton)

$55.33

Utility Coal ($/short ton)

$55.33

Electricity (c/kWh)

1.76
24

Major near-term changes in theenergy system occur in stabilization
CO2 Storage Rate Level 2 (550 ppm)
80
7060

TgC/y

50
403020100
Monitored CO2 Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)
25

In the long-term the challenge grows
CO2 Storage Rate Level 2 (~550 ppm)

80
70

7,000

60

4030

6,000

20
100
Monitored CO2 Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)

5,000

TgC/y

TgC/y

50

4,000
3,000

2,000

1,0000
Monitored CO2Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)

2050 (550 ppm)

2095 (550 ppm)
26

For more information on CCS see theGTSP special report on CCS• Released May 10, 2006.
• Jim Dooley gave a keynote
speech on the same day atthe Fifth Annual
Conference on Carbon
Capture and Sequestration
to introduce the CCS report.

27

Fossil CO2 Emissions—GlobalStabilization changes the sources of fossil CO2 emissions. Utility
emissions drop to virtually zero. Transportation emissions dominate. LEC

Level 2 (550 ppm CO2)

Reference
25

20

Transportation
Liquids Production
Natural Gas
HydrogenElectricityIndustry
Buildings

20

15

Transportation
Liquids ProductionNatural Gas
HydrogenElectricity
Industry
Buildings

GtC/yr

GtC/yr152510105500
2005 2020 2035

2050 2065 2080 2095

2005

20202035

2050

2065

2080

2095
28

The energy system—Global
4.7 W/m2 (~550 ppm CO2)

Change relative toreference

Level 2 (550 ppm CO2)
Global Primary Energy

1,600

1,200
EJ/Year

1,000
800

CCS
Energy Reduction from Reference
Non-Biomass Renewables
NuclearCommercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil

1000
800
600
400
EJ/yr

1,400

Change in Global Primary Energy
1200

Energy Reduction from Reference
Non-Biomass Renewables
NuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCS
Coal: w/o CCS
Natural Gas: w/ CCS
Natural Gas: w/o CCS
Oil: w/ CCS
Oil: w/o CCS

2000600-200400-400200-6000-800
2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

29

Transport Energy Use—Global
Remains dominated by liquid fuels, but …
Level 2 (550 ppm CO2)

Reference
Final Energy: Global Transport

Final Energy: Global Transport

400400Liquids

350300Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Electricity

Hydrogen350300Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Electricity

Hydrogen

250
EJ

EJ

250

Liquids

200200150

150

100100505002005

02005

2020

203520502065

2080

2095

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
30

Oil Supply—Global
Stabilization extends the life of conventional oil, reduces shale oil
production, eliminates coal liquefaction and promotes bioenergy.

Reference

Level 2 (550 ppm CO2)

600

500

600

Gas to Liquids
Coal Liquifaction
Biomass Liquids
Conventional Oil
Unconventional Oil

500

300

400
EJ/y

EJ/y

400

300

200

200

1001000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Gas to Liquids
Coal Liquifaction
Biomass Liquids
Conventional Oil
Unconventional Oil01990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
31

Commercial Bioenergy
Consumption—Global
Level 2 (550 ppm CO2)

The scale of bioenergychanges understabilization.

L

Global Com m ercial Biom ass
160
140

Reference120

Buildings

Electricity

HydrogenIndustry

Liquids

Gas

100

Global Com m ercial Biom ass

80
70

Buildings

Electricity

HydrogenIndustry

Liquids

Gas

EJ

90

80
60

60
EJ

50

40

40
30

20

20
100
2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

02005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
32

Bioenergy: Implications of Policy
RegimeFrom an earlier
scenario exercise
without valuationof terrestrial
carbon stocks

250

200

4.7 W/m2(~550 ppm CO2)
Gas
Liquid FuelIndustry
H2 Production
Pow er Generation
Buildings

EJ/y150

Reference
706050Gas
Liquid Fuel
Industry
H2 Production
Pow er Generation
Buildings

1005040
EJ/y

LEC1430201002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 209502005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

33

Implications for agriculture & land
use—no terrestrial carbon valuation
Net Terrestrial Em issions
3.0
2.0450 ppm

1.0
GTC/Year

LEC150.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0550 ppm
650 ppm
750 ppm

MINICAM_Lev el1
MINICAM_Lev el2
MINICAM_Lev el3
MINICAM_Lev el4
MINICAM_REF

reference

-4.0
Year
34

Implications for policy• Land-use change emissions are accelerated by theimposition of a limit on fossil fuel CO2.

• The reason is that terrestrial carbon
is not valued!
• The implication for policy is that terrestrial carbon
needs to be valued just as much as fossil fuelcarbon.

35

Electric power—Level 2 Global
4.7 W/m2 (~550 ppm CO2)
Non-emitting technologies expand market share andfossil generation deploys CCS.
Change relative toreference

Technology Mix250450

OtherWindPVHydroWind350PV

300

Hydro
EJ/y

Gen III

200

Biomass150

Gas (CC)_CCS
Gas (CC)Gas (base load conv)
Oil (peak load conv)
Oil (IGCC)_CCS
Oil (IGCC)
Oil (existing)Coal w/CCS

100
Gas w/CCS
5002005

Oil w/CCS
2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

Gen_IV
Gen_III
Gen_II_LWR
Biomass (IGCC)
Biomass (existing)
Biomass (conv)
Coal (IGCC)_CCS
Coal (IGCC)
Coal (existing)Coal (conv pul)Gas (peak load conv)
Gas (existing)

250

2095

200

Hydro
Gen_IV
Gen_III
Gen_II_LWR
Biomass (IGCC)
Biomass (existing)
Biomass (conv)
Coal (IGCC)_CCS
Coal (IGCC)
Coal (existing)Coal (conv pul)Gas (peak load conv)
Gas (existing)Gas (CC)_CCS
Gas (CC)Gas (base load conv)
Oil (peak load conv)
Oil (IGCC)_CCS

150

10050
EJ/YR

400

End Use Reduction
OtherWind
PV

0-50

-100

-150-200

Oil (IGCC)
Oil (existing)
Oil (base load conv)

Oil (base load conv)

-250
2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

36

Cumulative CO2 Capture and Storage
2100
350
300
2050

250

50

2020

40

1.8

1.4

GTC

1.2
1.00.8

3530
GTC

1.6

India
Southeast Asia
China
Korea
Japan
Australia_NZ
Middle East
AfricaLatin America
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
CanadaUSA

2520India
Southeast Asia
ChinaKorea
Japan
Australia_NZ
Middle East
AfricaLatin America
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
CanadaUSA200
GTC

45150

India
Southeast Asia
China
Korea
Japan
Australia_NZ
Middle East
AfricaLatin America
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Canada
USA

100

150.6

50

100.4

50.2

000.0
Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 137Summary• New scenarios are a story of changing

demographics and heterogeneous economic
growth.
– Shift in the economic center of gravity of the world toward Asia and thePacific• New scenarios are a story about the transition
from a world dominated by conventional oil.
– The competition among liquid fuel options- Unconventional oil- Coal to liquids- Biofuels

38Summary• New scenarios of energy, economy, andgreenhouse gas emissions have been developed
using the PNNL MiniCAM.
– Higher transportation demands– Higher fossil fuel demands– Higher CO2 emissions– Lower CH4 emissions (a technology story)• New stabilization scenarios based on radiativeforcing• Implications for energy technology and theeconomy– Dramatic changes are ultimately required in all sectors of the economy– Changes need to begin in the near term to meet any stabilization
goals, and are more dramatic for stringent scenarios.
39Summary• In stabilization cases, the price of carbon andother greenhouse gases is positive and rising.
– There is no evidence that the world will run out of fossil fuels andtransition to non-emitting technologies.
– Because cumulative emissions of CO2 are limited over the course of acentury, the challenge of emissions mitigation grows with time.

• When land-use carbon is not valued at the samerate as fossil fuel and industrial carbon– Large land-use change emissions of CO2 can occur, and– The cost of stabilizing radiative forcing is unnecessarily high.

40