- Workshop on Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development -How to develop scenarios: methodologies for LCS
Points to be discussed♦ Forecasting v.s. Backcasting, and their methodologies, e.g.,

static/recursive and intertemporal models, equilibrium andoptimization models♦ Treatment of technology learning:

Exogenous v.s. Endogenous
Methodological difficulty for the endogenous treatment:
non-convex issue♦ Baseline scenarios/emissions are key for the reduction costof CO2 emissions. How should we distinguish between Nonintervention and Intervention scenarios and treat them?
♦ Global warming is a serious issue, but we also have manyother issues, e.g., poverty, energy security, to be tackled.
How should we consider the priority of global warming andintegrate them?
Keigo Akimoto

June 14, 2006

- Workshop on Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development -Technology Learning
The results of a model treating endogenous technological change. Two emission
peaks can be seen in energy systems having low-costs.

How to achieve low-carbon society beyond the death valley
Source: Gritsevkyi & Nakicenovic, Energy Policy, 2000Keigo Akimoto

June 14, 2006

- Workshop on Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development -How to develop scenarios: methodologies for LCS
Points to be discussed♦ Forecasting v.s. Backcasting, and their methodologies, e.g.,

static/recursive and intertemporal models, equilibrium andoptimization models♦ Treatment of technology learning:

Exogenous v.s. Endogenous
Methodological difficulty for the endogenous treatment:
non-convex issue♦ Baseline scenarios/emissions are key for the reduction costof CO2 emissions. How should we distinguish between Nonintervention and Intervention scenarios and treat them?
♦ Global warming is a serious issue, but we also have manyother issues, e.g., poverty, energy security, to be tackled.
How should we consider the priority of global warming andintegrate them?
Keigo Akimoto

June 14, 2006

- Workshop on Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development -Effects of Baseline on Mitigation Costs

CO2 shadow price ($/tC)

800

600

A1-S650
A1-S550
A1-S450
B2-S650766

SRES A1 base

619
550

B2-S550
B2-S450400
SRES B2 base

293

200
120
102
02000

2020

2040

2060

20802100

Year♦ Baseline would be more important for the mitigation costs than thestabilization levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Source: Akimoto & Tomoda, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change,2006
Keigo Akimoto

June 14, 2006

- Workshop on Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development -How to develop scenarios: methodologies for LCS
Points to be discussed♦ Forecasting v.s. Backcasting, and their methodologies, e.g.,

static/recursive and intertemporal models, equilibrium andoptimization models♦ Treatment of technology learning:

Exogenous v.s. Endogenous
Methodological difficulty for the endogenous treatment:
non-convex issue♦ Baseline scenarios/emissions are key for the reduction costof CO2 emissions. How should we distinguish between Nonintervention and Intervention scenarios and treat them?
♦ Global warming is a serious issue, but we also have manyother issues, e.g., poverty, energy security, to be tackled.
How should we consider the priority of global warming andintegrate them?
Keigo Akimoto

June 14, 2006