2050 SCENARIOS FOR FRANCENIES COP11/MOP1 side event – Montréal: December 3, 2005
Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy
Focus on Country-Specific Scenario Analysis-Hubert KIEKENIDDRI Paris
6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

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Outline• National Context• First learning from 2 scenarios• Perspective for a new modelling approach of“Factor 4” emissions reduction scenarios

6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

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The Iddri
Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations• Founded in 2001 as a research consortium, Iddri became a nonprofit, nongovernmental think-tank in 2003
• Iddri provides forums and networks creating common culture on
sustainability issues among stakeholders, following 4 objectives:••••

Contribute to building up a more equitable and effective global governance
Reduce controversies on sustainability trough dialogues among stakeholders
Promote scientific research and multidisciplinary expertise on sustainability
Gather timely information and knowledge to improve decisions-making• Focal areas are those requiring collective international action:
Climate change, Biodiversity, Agriculture and forests, Trade• Led by Laurence Tubiana
6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

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French National Context• Long term national objective: to reduce by a “Factor 4” GhG
emissions by 2050
– Key driver for the National Climate Plan (2004)– Long term objective included in the 2005 Framework law for Energy• Political target stimulated scenario building initiatives:– Energy Technology Outlook, commissioned by the Ministry of Energy, using the POLES
model (P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE CNRS)– « Factor four » study of the French Interministerial Task Force on Climate
Change (MIES), by P. Radanne, former President of the French Agency for Environment
and Energy Management (ADEME)– Revised Negawatt scenarios for France– High level working group on F4 scenarios, mandated by the Ministry of Industry &Ministry of Environment– Etc.

6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

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F4 scenarios using POLES modelResources

THE POLES MODEL

Inte rnatio n a l E n erg y M a rk e ts

• Dynamic partial equilibrium modelC o alP rice s(t+ 1)

Emission Constraint

I m p o rts /E xp o rts (t)• Energy sector and GHG emitting
activities representation,• Recursive simulation framework
exogenous/endogenous technologies– « Two Factor Learning Curve » simulates
cost decrease with cumulative installedcapacities and cumulative R&D spending

46 Regions

EmissionsR e g io n a l
E nerg y
B a la nc es

Cons, ProdPOP GDP

Factor-4 scenario using POLES• Developed for the Ministry of industry• Consistent with EU goals (+2°C)• “F4” for AI countries / “F3” for France
80

70
GHG Emissions (GtCO2-eq)– Detailed cost/performance data for
50 energy technologies– Detailed H2 economy covering
2 end-use & 10 production technologies– 5 carbon capture & sequestration options

G asTechnologies– Developed by P. Criqui (LEPII-EPE, CNRS)
under EU research programmes– World disaggregated in 30 regions

O il

B a s e lin e

605040S 65 0e30

S55 0e20106, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France01970
19900102030
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20 5 02 07 02 0IM
9 0A G E
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Learning from POLES scenarios
POLES VISION for 2050
i. Transportation
Fast diffusion of Very Low Carbon (VLC) vehicles after
2030. 2050’ market share of VLC up to 80%– Energy consumption increase up to 2020. Oil remains
main energy source (>50%)– Car technology mix: electric, hybrids and H2-ICE, butfew fuel cells.
–ii. Buildings

In 2050: 30% of VLC buildings & only 25% buildings
with standard energy efficiency– Energy for Residential= renewable & electricity;
forCommercial= electricity (+90%)–Energy consumption stabilise after 2010.
2050 mix: gas (30%) & electricity (+65%)

iv. Energy Production

Fast diffusion of CCS after 2025. “Full CCS” by 2040
– Most competitive by 2050: Renewables & nuclear–6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France– Implicit high C value requires
strong development of newinfrastructures (ex. high speedtrain, rail freight freeway) to satisfy
growing mobility demand & tradeii. Buildings– Massive retrofitting of building
stock (2,5% / yr in av.) requires
early signal to be fulfilled by 2050
(incentives, regulations, taxes…)
iii. Industryiii. Industry–LESSONS for POLICY
i. Transportation– Open questions on the actual
impact of the implicit high C cost:(Incentive for relocation vs Hightransportation costs)
iv. Energy Production– Decarbonisation will lower
expected oil&gas prices for 2050

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« Factor four » MIES study• Commissioned by the French Interministerial Task Force on
Climate Change (MIES).
• Prepared by P. Radanne, former President of the French Agency
for Environment and Energy Management (ADEME).
• Objective: understand the mix of policies needed for reducing GhG
emissions fourfold in France by 2050 (vs 1990)• Scenario based on a detailled description of:– energy flows and consumption through the economy– final energy consumption by energy type and sector– Efficiency improvement using best available technologies• 2 steps approach:– Sensitivity analysis of final energy breakdown(varying with different prospective hypothesis)– Consistent Scenarios with F4 target
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Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Renewables

Main Results
End-use energy consumption
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Renewables

F4 Sequestr.
F4 No Nuclear
F4 Cog.+Renewables

Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Renewables

F4 Sequestr.
F4 No Nuclear
F4 Cog.+Renewables

F4 No Nuclear
F4 Cog.+Renewables

F4 Nuclear

F4 Nuclear

F4 Nuclear

SupplySupplySupplyEnergy Efficiency

Energy Efficiency

Energy Efficiency

Without Savings

Without Savings

Without Savings

2000

2000

2000

0102030

Industry
Stabilization

4050020406080100

OilGasElectricity
Renewables

F4 Sequestr.

120Resident. & Commercial
Moderate Reduction

020406080

Agric. & Transport.
Strong Reduction• F4 emissions reductions for Industry, Residential & Commercial areachieved by moderate reduction of energy consumption but changes
in end-use energy-mix• For Transportation, strong reduction of energy consumption areneeded, along with radical energy shift
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120

Lessons for policy makers(Short & Medium Terms)

Forbidden Paths• Power generation based on fossil
fuels without cogeneration.
• Abandoning nuclear without
implementing CO2 sequestration• Oil-based transportation sector• Low-efficiency fossil-heatedbuildings• Massive use of fossil fuels inindustries (steam, furnaces…)• Wait and See strategies:– Strong inertia of crucial issues suchas upgrading work on buildings andtransport sector require that relevant
policies must be adopted soon
6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – FranceCommon Obligations• High Efficiency end uses

– In the residential-tertiary sectors, highefficiency do not necessary require
upheaval in lifestyles• Advanced Technologies portfolio• Investing in building stock retrofit• Switch of industrial processes toelectricity.
• Raw materials recycling• Profound behavioural changes arerequired for transportation:– Facilitated by urban planning, modal
switch, fast train, bits instead of km…
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Learning from the 2 scenarios
1.

F4 emissions reduction by 2050 is achievable

2.

Long term targets require early signals

3.

Some Good News may help…

4.

Intensified efforts on technological research welcome!

(Even earlier “sceptical” agree…)(but no short term policies)(Consumers behaviours, Electricity storage, CO2 sequestration, etc.)

Remaining issue (among others..)1.

Poor consistence observed in current modelling
approach between infrastructure dynamics / expectedstructural changes and consumption patterns–For ex., what will be the impact of large building retrofitting plans on
cement, steel or other materials industries?

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New modelling perspectives• The SECC study: Scenarios under Carbon Constraints– Managed by Iddri and Fonddri (Research Foundation onsustainable development and international relations)– Financed by Entreprises pour l'Environnement (EpE), a coalitionof 40 leading companies operating in France united by asustainability commitment– Conducted by a consortium of 3 laboratories specialized inclimate and energy issues: CIRED, LEPII-EPE & Enerdata• The SECC study aims at studying implications for industryof long-term “low carbon scenarios”
6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

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The SECC study• Main goals:– Bring together industry experts and economists to improve coherence between
sectoral industrial dynamics– Help to identify appropriate and realistic policies and measures that could
contribute to F4 emissions reductions at least industrial end economic costs• Methodology:– Based on coupled sectoral (POLES) and general equilibrium models (IMACLIM)– Industries provide inputs on production processes and their expected evolutions– Demand side disaggregation allows to simulate its material content dynamics– Scenarios will be evaluated to identify constraints (capital stock turnover,investment cycles, technology development.) and opportunities (new demand formaterials, new sources of value added…) along the path to 2050

• Contact persons:– Patrick Nollet, EpE - pnollet@epe-asso.org– Michel Colombier, Iddri – michel.colombier@iddri.org
6, rue du Général Clergerie - 75116 Paris – France

Tel: +33-(0)1.5370.2235 - Fax: ~.2145

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