Workshop agenda and briefing note

Decarbonising aviation: Exploring theConsequences
Corporate Partnership Board of the ITF
13 March 2024
9:00 – 17:30 CETOECD Headquarters, 2 rue André Pascal Paris 75016, in room CC20

Agenda09:00-09:10 | Welcome•

Sharon Masterson, Manager, CPB – International Transport Forum

09:10-09:20 | Round of participant introductions
09:20-09:30 | Scene setting presentation from the ITF•

Andrea Papu Carrone, Transport Analyst/Modeller – International Transport Forum

Exploring the consequences of decarbonising aviation
The morning sessions will be dedicated to discussing the consequences of decarbonising aviation andbrainstorming principles for mitigating potential adverse effects. These consequences could include changes intravel patterns, air route connectivity, and impacts on the broader economy triggered by cost increases due to theadoption of cleaner fuels and aircraft and the implementation of regulatory instruments.
09:30-10:45 | Session 1: Connectivity and technology
Key discussion questions:• How could aviation passenger connectivity between countries, and regional connectivity within countries,change?
• How could air cargo commodities and trade patterns evolve?
• What aircraft sizes and technologies will be required to facilitate decarbonisation? Could it favour one
network model (hub and spoke vs point to point)?
Opening statements from:• Kiri Hannifin, Chief Sustainability Officer and Samuel Gordon, Sustainability Manager – Air New Zealand• Oriane Hernandez, Airfreight and Security Advisor – TLF Overseas (FIATA)• Simone Rauer, Head of the Aviation Roadmap and Paul Bonnabau, Market Forecast Manager – Airbus
10:45-10:55 | Coffee break

10:55-12:15 | Session 2: Tourism and changes in travel patterns
Key discussion questions:• What could the impacts be on both domestic and international tourism, and how would this differ acrossworld regions?
• How could the economic contribution of the tourism sector be safeguarded while decarbonising aviation?
• What feasible alternatives exist to aviation in different regions of the world, and how could travel demand be
most sustainably allocated between modes?
Opening statements from:• Jane Stacey, Head of Tourism Unit – OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities• James McDonald, Director Travel Transformations – World Travel & Tourism Council

12:15-13:00 | Session 3: Social impacts and labour
Key discussion questions:• How will different demographic groups be affected by decarbonising aviation policies?
• What will the aggregate effects of decarbonisation be for the scale of employment in the aviation sector andrelated sectors?
• How could the skills profile of workers in the aviation sector be adapted in the context of decarbonising
aviation?
Opening statements from:• Stefan Gossling, Professor of Tourism – Linnaus University School of Business and Economics• Alejandra Cruz Ross, Transport Specialist – International Labour Organization• Jeremy Anderson, Director of Just Transition and Sustainable Transport – International Transport Workers’
Federation
13:00-14:00 | Lunch

Current and future policies for decarbonising aviation
During the afternoon, selected experts will outline current progress in decarbonising aviation, the policies thathave already been committed to, and challenges to reach net zero aspirational goal. Following this, the ITF will
moderate a discussion on how decarbonising aviation policies can be designed in such a way as to mitigate any
adverse effects for different user groups and the wider economy.
14:00-15:00 | Session 4: Current status, committed policies and required measures to reach LTAG•

"Navigating the way to a sustainable aviation future”
Dr. Ingrid El Helou, Cleantech Analyst – Future Cleantech Architects•"Airline-economic and operational consequences from decarbonising aviation”
Dr. Andreas Schafer, Professor of Energy and Transport – UCL Energy Institute•“Are we overlooking important barriers to net-zero aviation?"
Dr. Stefan Gossling, Professor of Tourism – Linnaeus University School of Business and Economics

15:00-15:15 | Coffee break
15:15-17:00 | Session 5: Designing holistic policies for decarbonising aviation
During this session, the ITF will facilitate a participative multi-criteria decision analysis exercise to identify which
policies are key to decarbonising aviation, their associated trade-offs against a set of agreed criteria, and how
they could be designed in such a way to best take account of the wider consequences of decarbonisation as
discussed in earlier sessions.
•

Moderation: Matt Ireland, Project Manager, International Transport Forum

17:00-17:30 | Concluding remark

Briefing note

Decarbonising Aviation: Exploring the Consequences
About this project

In October 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) set a challenging goal for net-zerocarbon emissions in aviation by 2050. Achieving this objective requires a substantial reduction in carbon
emissions from aircraft and fuels, which presents difficulties due to the limited availability ofcommercially viable alternatives to fossil fuels on the necessary scale. To facilitate the transition,
governments are investing in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and other technologies. Some are also
considering policy instruments to regulate the sector and contribute to reaching aviation
decarbonisation goals.
The adoption of cleaner fuels and aircraft, as well as the implementation of regulatory instruments, will
impact costs that may translate to higher passenger and freight prices. As a result, the consequences ofdecarbonising aviation could include changes in travel patterns, air route connectivity, and impacts on
the broader economy. Governments seek cost-effective and equitable ways to mitigate these impacts
and gain support for aviation decarbonisation policies. However, existing research offers limited insights
into this area.
This project will:▪

Review various aviation decarbonisation policies and technologies, evaluating their effectivenessand readiness to support the transition in the short- and long-term.

▪

Assess the potential consequences of decarbonising aviation through geographic,
macroeconomic, social, environmental, and sectorial lenses.

▪

Provide guidance to governments on how to mitigate any adverse effects of decarbonising
aviation for different user groups and the wider economy.

List of participants

Ms. Kiri HANNIFIN

Air New ZealandChief Sustainability Officer

Mr. Samuel GORDONAir New Zealand

SAF Lead

Mr. Paul BONNABAU

AirbusMarket Forecast Manager

Ms. Simone RAUER

AirbusHead of the Aviation Roadmap

AirbusCorporate Affairs - Aviation
Environmental Roadmap

AramcoEnergy Modelling specialist

Mr. Vittorio MANENTE

AramcoProject Manager

Mr. Patrick JEANNE

Cargolux Airlines International SA

Mr. Jan Petter
STEINLAND

Civil Aviation Authority Norway

Mr. Laurent SALEUR

ExxonMobil

Mr. Sebastian FERRARI

Federal Ministry of Labour andEconomy in Austria

Ms. Sohely
RAKOTOHARISOA
Mr. Mohamed-Ali
SAAFI

Ms. Anastasiia
Filipovska

FIATA

Manager (Sr) Government & Industry
Relations
Director Strategic Analysis &Transformation
Europe Inland lead trader chez
ExxonMobil
Department for International Tourism
Affairs
Trade and Transport Officer

Ms. Oriane Hernandez

FIATA - TLF Overseas

Airfreight and Security Advisor

Mr. Philippe LAMBERTFranceMs. Sandra COMBETFranceMr. Luca BECCASTRINI

FS Italiane

Ms. Ingrid EL HELOU

Future Cleantech Architects

Cleantech Aviation Analyst

Mr. Stefan BICKERT

Germany

Federal Ministry for Digital andTransport (BMDV)

Mr. Koichiro AIKAWA

Honda Motor Co., Ltd

Chief Engineer

Mr. Yoshihiro IKEDA

Honda Motor Co., Ltd

Assistant Chief Engineer

Mr. Renato FERREIRAFORMIGARI

Iberdrola

Electromobility analyst

Chef du bureau des étudeséconomiques DGAC Direction duTransport aérien
Secrétaire Générale Direction Générale
de l'Aviation Civile (DGAC)
FS Research Centre - Coordination
MOSTMs. Isabel GOMEZ

Iberdrola

Senior Policy Analyst on Energy
Prospective Energy Policies and Climate
ChangeMs. Alejandra CRUZ
ROSS
Mr. Jeremy
ANDERSONInternational Air Transport
Association (IATA)
International Labour
Organization (ILO)
International Transport Workers’
Federation

Mr. Andreas KOPF

ITF

Modeller/Analyst ITF/RC

Mr. Guineng CHEN

ITF

Team Lead ITF/RC

Mr. Luis MARTINEZITF

Lead Modeller/Analyst ITF/RC

Mr. Matthew IRELAND

ITF

Project Manager ITF/RC

ITF

Modeller/Analyst ITF/RC

ITF

Manager Corporate Partnership Board
ITF/IRS

ITF

Intern ITF/IRS

Kompetenzzentrums Grüne
Transformation des Tourismus

Deputy Head

Lund University

Expert to the Secretariat Department ofService Management

Mott MacDonald

Consultant - Sustainable Mobility

Mr. Ali ALLIBHAIOECD

Policy Analysis and Advice ECO/SSD

Mr. Douglas
SUTHERLANDOECDHead of division ECO/SSD

Mr. Hannes THEESOECD

Policy Analyst/Economist CFE/TOU

Mr. Ruben
MAXIMIANOOECD

Senior Policy Analyst ECO/SSD

Mr. Tobias KRUSEOECD

Economist ECO/PED

Ms. Jane STACEYOECD

Head of Unit CFE/TOU

Mr. Volodymyr
BILOTKACH

Purdue University

Associate Professor in Aviation
Management

Mr. Antoine FERAL

Rolls Royce International

Vice-President, EU Affairs

Mr. Andrew MATTERS

Ms. Andrea PAPU
CARRONE
Ms. Sharon
MASTERSON
Ms. Stella CHECACANASMr. Dirk ROGL
Professor Stefan
GÖSSLING
Mr. Valentin
BOUZIGUES

Senior Economist
Transport Specialist Sectoral Policies
Department
Director of Just Transition andSustainable TransportMs. Hulda WINNES

Swedish Transport Agency

Ms. Jenny RYMAN

Swedish Transport Agency

Dr. Andreas SCHAFER

University College London

World Tourism Organization(UNWTO)
Ms. Virginia
World Tourism Organization
FERNANDEZ TRAPA(UNWTO)World Travel & Tourism Council
Mr. James MCDONALD(WTTC)
Dr. Dirk GLAESSER

Expert on climate, maritime andaviation
Civil Aviation and Maritime
Department
Professor of Energy and Transport UCL
Energy Institute
Director Sustainable Development ofTourism
Programme officer of the Sustainable
Development of Tourism Department
Director Travel Transformation

International Transport Forum
2 rue André Pascal
75016 Paris

Tel : +33 (0) 1 73 31 25 00

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