ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2006

Energy Technology Perspectives
Scenarios and Strategies to 2050

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050NIES Workshop
Developing Visions for a Low Carbon Society
through Sustainable Development
Michael Taylor
Energy Technology Policy DivisionInternational Energy Agency© OECD/IEA - 2006

G8 - Gleneagles CommuniquéJuly 2005“IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios andstrategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitiveenergy future”.
Take part in dialogue, including developing
countries
14 international programmes focussed on energy
efficiency (buildings, appliances, industry,transport), clean coal, renewables and R&D
collaboration
Reports to Japanese G8 Presidency in 2008

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEWorld Energy Outlook

World Primary Energy Demand
7 000
6 000

OilMtoe

5 000

Natural gas

4 000
3 000

Coal

2 000

Other renewables

1 000

Nuclear power
Hydro power

01970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the 60% growth in energy
demand between now and 2030

Global CO2 Emissions
in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

million tonnes of CO
240 000

16%35 000

30 00025 000

20 0001990

2000CoalOil2010
Gas2020

Alternative Policy Scenario

2030
Reference Scenario

CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in2030.
Improved energy efficiency contributes morethan half to this gap.

But this is not enough…

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEPublication date 22 June

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEEnergy Technology Perspectives 2006
 Contributes to the IEA
response to the G8 Plan ofAction (“Advising onscenario strategies aimed ata clean, clever andcompetitive energy future”)
 This innovative work
demonstrates how energy
technologies can make adifference in a series ofglobal scenarios to 2050.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYPublication date 22 June

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEWhat ETP builds on
 IEAs multi-year ETP project, supported via
Voluntary Contributions from Australia, Canada,Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US
 Past work on the WEO Alternative Policy
Scenarios Extensive information base from previous ETO
analyses and from IEA’s Technology Network
 Substantial input from acrossthe IEA and from along list of external experts

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEETP 2006 Focus
 Status and perspectives for key energy technologies indifferent sectors
 Global scenario analysis to illustrate how technologies canmake a difference Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for nuclear, CCS,renewables, advanced biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells and energy
efficiency progress Technology Strategies:
 How much can different technologies deliver?
 By when can they deliver?
 What barriers have to be overcome to make them deliver both inthe short term and over the next 3-5 decades?
 Pathways to overcome barriers

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEAccelerated Technology Scenarios(ACT)A family of scenarios to demonstrate howtechnologies that are already commercial orunder development can help towards asustainable energy futureAll scenarios analyse the impact frommeasures to accelerated R&D,
demonstration and deployment efforts aswell as measures aimed at giving incentives
for low-carbon technologies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIETechnology Assumptions(relative to Map Scenario)
Scenario

Renewables

Low Renewables

Slower cost
reductions

Nuclear

CCS

H2 fuel cells

Advancedbiofuels

Lower publicacceptanceLow Nuclear

No CCSNo CCS

0.3% p.a. lessimprovement

Low Efficiency

TECH Plus

EndEnd-use
efficiency

Stronger cost
reductions

Stronger cost
reductions &technology
improvements

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Breakthroughfor FC

Stronger cost
reductions &improved
feedstockavailability

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEGlobal CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline Scenario
60,000+137%

Buildings
50,000Other

Mt CO240,000

Transport
30,000Industry
20,000Transformation
10,000Power Generation02003

Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
(WEO 2005)

Emissions increase dramatically by 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEGlobal CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and Map Scenario
60 000+137%

ACT Scenarios 2050

Buildings

50 000Other

Mt CO240 000Transport
30 000+6%

Industry
20 000Transformation
10 000Power Generation02003

Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
(WEO 2005)

Map

Map Scenario: Emissions returned towards today’s level
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEGlobal CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and ACT Scenarios
60 000+137%

ACT Scenarios 2050

Buildings

50 000Other

Mt CO240 000

Transport+21%30 000+6%

Industry
20 000Transformation
10 000Power Generation02003

Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
(WEO 2005)

Map

No CCS

Impact of not having CCS available
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEGlobal CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and ACT Scenarios
60 000+137%

ACT Scenarios 2050

Buildings

50 000Other

Mt CO240 000+21%+27%

Transport

30 000+6%

Industry
20 000Transformation
10 000Power Generation02003

Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
(WEO 2005)

Map

No CCS

Low Efficiency

Impact of less efficiency progress
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEGlobal CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
60 000+137%

ACT Scenarios 2050

Buildings

50 000Other

Mt CO240 000+21%

Transport+27%

30 000+6%

Industry-16%

20 000Transformation
10 000Power Generation02003

Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
(WEO 2005)

Map

No CCS

Low Efficiency

TECH Plus
2050

TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain keytechnologies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEEmission Reduction by Technology Area
ACT Map Scenario
Coal to gas

End-use efficiency
44%

5%PowerGeneration
34%

Nuclear
6%
Fossil fuel generation
efficiency
1%
CCS
12%
Hydropower2%

Biofuels in transport
6%
Fuel mix in buildings
and industry
8%

CCS in fueltransformation
3%
CCS in industry
5%

Biomass2%
Other renewables
6%

Improved energy efficiency most important contributor
to reduced emissions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEKey Messages
A more sustainable energy future ispossible with known technology
The costs are not disproportional
But it will require sustained effort
and investment by both the public
and private sector in developed anddeveloping countries
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEKey Messages
We can return carbon emissions totheir current level by 2050
We can halve the growth of oil
demandWe can move onto a pathway thatwill stabilise CO2 in the atmosphereat “sustainable levels”
And this is consistent with
continued rapid growth of energy
demand in the developing WorldINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEKey Messages
Most energy still comes from fossil
fuels in 2050
We can substantially decarbonise
the power sector by 2050
Decarbonising transport will takelonger but must be achieved in thesecond half of the century

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEKey Messages
 Energy efficiency is paramount Also very important: Carbon Capture and Storage Renewables
 Nuclear – where acceptable Urgent action is required in public and private
sectors:
 Enhanced R & D
 Demonstration and deployment Clear and predictable incentives
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEImplementing the ACT Scenarios

Policy Implications
 Energy efficiency is top priority
 Well focused R&D programs are essential
 Transition from R&D to deployment iscritical Need for predictable long-term incentives
for low-carbon technologies
 Non-economic barriers need attention
 A huge and coordinated international effort
 The task is urgent
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYAGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE