Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives:
Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India(shukla@iimahd.ernet.in)Presentation for the Expert Workshop on“Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development”
Tokyo, June 15, 2006

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

AgendaDevelopment and Climate: The Perspective
Framework for Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
Illustrations from India• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate
Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Conclusions

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Development and Climate
Perspective and Framework

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?
 Climate change is a derivative problem of development
 Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities
 Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive &expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century
 Strategies for dealing with sustainable development andclimate change have many common elements, and aligningthese would reduce costs and minimize welfare losses

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Conventional perspective• Development is a threat to climate• Climate change is a barrier to development

Economic/social Indicator

Development and Climate: The Perspective

Conventional FrontierDevelopment and Climate perspective• Pathways to achieve sustainable development
goals are climate-friendly• Sustainable Development is the driving force foraddressing climate change challenges

Economic/social Indicator

Climate Quality

Frontier under Development
and Climate Perspective

Climate Quality

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Development and Climate: Shifting the Frontier
Shifting development and climate “frontier” though:• Innovations (technology, institutions)• International and regional cooperation• Targeted technology and investment flows• Aligning stakeholder interests• Focusing on inputs rather than outputs (conduct vs.results)

Climate Quality

Economic/social Indicator

National Development Targets

Economic/social Indicator

Climate Goal

Technology &Institutional Innovations;Co-benefits

Climate Quality

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Development and Climate: Framework
Methodology for assessment• Scenarios (key drivers, development policies)• Processes (cooperation, learning)• Institutions (rule of law, governance)• Resources (endowments, human capital, finance)

Approach• Shift baseline• Multiple dividends• Link local & global; short &long-term

Decarbonization of Primary Energy
China

1000kgC/toeIndia??

800
USA600Japan
France400
1960

1970

1980

1990

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

2000

Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
Climate policies and actions to be driven by:• National development targets• Agreed goals under extant international agreements

MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change
MDG and global targets

India’s National plan targets

Interface with Climate Change

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty andhunger• Double the per capita income by 2012• Income effect would enhancechoices for cleaner fuels andadaptive capacity

Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who suffer fromhunger• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Contain population growth to 16.2%
between 2001-2011

Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and
33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

Targets: Integrate SD principles in country
policies/ programs to reverse loss ofenvironmental resources• Sustained access to potable drinking waterto all villages by 2007

Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion ofpeople without sustainable access to safe
drinking water• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India• Reduce GHG Emissions due tolower population• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced
GHG and local emissions; lower
fossil imports; reduced pressure onland, resources and ecosystems• Higher adaptive capacity to fromenhanced supply of water, health &education in rural areas

Illustrations from India• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Energy Transitions: How they matte to Low Carbon Future?

Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption

80%

How to transit toModern Biomass?

60%

Food Security?

TraditionalBiomass
40%

Domestic Resource: +ve

Coal Direct Employment: +ve
Oil
20%
Fuel Supply?
Waste disposal? NuclearSafety?
1952

1960

1970

1980

Foreign Exchange: -ve

En. Security:+Ve

0%
1990

Energy Security: -ve

Geopolitical Risk: HighGas Foreign Exchange: -ve
Hydro
2001

Regional water disputes?
Indirect Benefits

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Bio-diesel: Multiple Dividends
Jatropha Plantation in India• Rural Employment:
Large scale employment potential inplantation, seed collection and extraction

Jatropha• Farm Income (from waste lands):
Net income Rs. 12000/Ha/year• Energy Security
Imported fossil oil is replaced• Environment
Neutral carbon emissions, Rehabilitates waste land

Rural Employment
Oil Extraction Plant

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Medium-Term (2050)
Conventional Technology Path: Includes
significant endogenous technological change

Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario
Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear (Thorium)
Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks
Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure

4500

IA2Frozen Technology

Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

3750
CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas

IA1
3000

Sustainable Development Scenario

IB1

2250

Push for renewable energy & recycling
Renewablecar
Advanced
Energypooling,Technologies
Shared assets

1500

High speed trains, Swap of transport by IT
Dematerialization, Community institutions

750
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Sustainable habitats, Reforestation

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long-term (2100)
Conventional Technology Paths: Includes
significant endogenous technological change

Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario
Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear Fusion
Fuel cell vehicles, High air transport share
IT controlled buildings/appliances

6750

Frozen Technology

IA2

6000

Global R&D, Intensive agriculture

5250
CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

Advanced global shipping networks

IA14500

Sustainable Development Scenario

3750

Integrated resources/technology planning

3000

IB1

Decentralized & renewable technologies

2250

Renewable
Lifestylechanges,
EnergyEco-friendly
Technologies
choices
1500
750
2000

Sustainable agriculture/forestry/land-use
2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Multi-purpose water systems
Sustainable habitats, Service Pools

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Stabilization Induced Technological Change – IA2 Scenario
550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization in India

Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
W ind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
NuclearGas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission

Ton of C
2000
2500

2000
1600

1500
1200

1000
800

550 PPMV

500
40001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

20802095

Illustrations from India• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

LPS Locations
Year: 2000

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Year: 2030

Co-Benefits: Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation
800

7Carbon Emissions

SO2 Emissions
A2 Scenario
Emission

5Million Ton of Carbon

Million Ton SO264
3Frozen SO2 Control Policies

2600

A2 Scenario
EmissionsWith Carbon Price @$5/ton of CO2400

With BAU SO2 Control Policies

200

101995

2005

2015

2025

203501995

2005

2015

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)
Mitigation Regime

Co-benefits

SO2 mitigation alone

Little carbon mitigation

Joint Mitigation: CO2 mitigation @ $5/ton& same SO2 target

Joint mitigation costs $400
Million less

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

2025

2035

Illustrations from India•

Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals•

Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation•

Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity•

Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia•

Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate ChangeRisks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from IndiaFood–Water–Energy–Environment Nexus

FoodAgriculture uses
Ground Water for
Irrigation

Water

EnergyWater use depends
on crop pattern,
cultivation practices,
electricity supply etc

Energy use depends onpump efficiency, water
depth and Agriculture
practices

Environment
GHG emissions
depend on Energy/
Technology Mix

Electricity tariff reforms, water pricing reforms, energy efficiency programs (e.g.
substitution of inefficient irrigation pump-sets) decentralized energy programs (e.g.
micro-hydro development) have made this nexus more sustainable

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity Generation
State of Andhra Pradesh

Rainfall and Water Inflows
1110004000

10800600

2400

400

Water Inflow

2008000199001992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Rainfall (mm)Inflow (MTC)

3200

Hydro Electricity Generation (TWh)Rainfall in Catchments Area

1600

Hydro Electricity Generation

98765431980

1984

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

1988

1992

1996

2000

Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity Generation
State of Andhra Pradesh
Share of Hydro

Carbon Emissions Baseline of Andhra Pradesh
1.540%30%20%10%0%1980

1980-1990
Pre Reforms Period

1990-2001
Reforms Period

1.25

50%
kg (Carbon Dioxide)/KWh% Share of Hydro Electricity Generation

60%

Fossil Electricity

Coal

1.0

Fossil Electricity
0.75

Total Electricity

Total Electricity

0.5

Gas

0.25

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

0.0
1980

1985

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

1990

1995

2000

South-Asia Energy Cooperation

Integrated South-Asia Energy MarketSpillover Benefits:• 16 MW additional Hydropower• Flood control• Lower energy prices would enhancecompetitiveness of regional industries

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative$ Billion% GDPfrom 2010 to 2030

Energy60 Exa Joule

321

0.87

CO2 Equiv.

5.1 Billion Ton

280.08

SO250 Million Ton

100.03

Total

359

0.98

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Illustrations from India• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms

1.10

Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity
Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms

Fossil Electricity with Reforms
Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh

0.90

Total Electricity w/o Reforms

Cumulative CO2 not Emitted:

140 million ton
Total Electricity with Reforms
0.70

0.501990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

2001

Illustrations from India• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate
Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure
Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

Maintenance Cost Curve

Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability

Probability of Occurrence

ChangePresentlimate
C
More number ofdays with >200
mm rainfall
Very highnumber of days
with >200 mmrainfall

Less numberofdays with >200
mm rainfall

Light andspread-over rain

Future Climate
Heavy andNumber of days with concentrated rain

> 200mm rainfall

Repair and Maintenance Costs

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate

2000

Cost with adverse Climate
Change and Deforestation

Cost with adverse
Climate Change

Conventional
Bath-Tub Curve

2020

2040

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India

2060

2080

2100

Conclusions: Aligning Development and Climate
Transiting to Low Carbon Society––––Global development along high carbon path is untenable
Stand-alone decarbonization is costly
Most sustainable development actions are climate friendly
Mainstreaming climate change in development actions reduces welfare losses

Low Carbon Society and Developing Countries– Developing countries will have low per capita emissions throughout thecentury, but their emissions intensities will be high– Significant opportunities exist in developing countries for gaining co-benefits– Developing Countries have opportunities to decide the development pathway– Mitigation and adaptation cost for any stabilization scenario is lower wheredevelopment pathway follow sustainability goals

Low Carbon Society and India– India’s population throughout the century will remain around a sixth of global
population– India’s development along the sustainable path is vital for global sustainability– Stabilization regime would induce significant mitigation and adaptation in India;
altering energy system and imposing significant costs– India’s Low Carbon Transition would deliver sizable global benefits

Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India