Japan-UK Joint Research Project

Impact and Science of Climate
Change on Asia-Pacific region

National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES)
Hideo Harasawa

1Impact Research in AP Region
1) IPCC (Asia)
2) APN (CAPABLE)
3) AIACC(Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate
Change )4) Global Warming Research Initiative (2002〜2005FY, CSTP,Japan)5) Global Environmental Research Fund (MoE, Japan)
B-12 Prediction and Impacts of Extreme events
S-4 Thresholds of Impacts / Comprehensive Impacts
Assessment in Japan and E-Asia, etc.
6) Global Warming Research Project (1st: 2001〜2005FY,2nd: 2006FY〜、NIES)- AIM (Integrated Assessment Model, 1990〜)
7) Other research activities

2

Framework of Global Warming Research Initiative3

Achievement map for impacts and risk studies in Japan4

Reports of Global Warming Research Initiative

No.1, 2003 (Jp)

No.2, 2004 (Eng)No.3, 2006 (Jp)

No.4, 2006 (Eng)?

5

Sustainable
development

Socio-economic
scenarios
econo
myA1
highgrowth

Mitigation cost50

A2
pluralism

40
30

EUROPE+FORMER USSRNORTH AMERICALATIN AMERICAAFRICA+MIDDLE EAST

2040

2030

ASIA PACIFIC
2020

02010

environment

102000B2
regional
coexistentB1
recycle-based

201990Regionalism

Globalism

Climate scenarios

SO2etc-2000-1000

0+1000+2000 (kg/ha)

Change of Potential Productivity, Winter W heat, 2100-1990

Emission Scenarios

Impact/adaptationassessment

CO2Carbon

NIES GW Research Project Carbon cycle

Sequestration

6

Collaboration with climate model
Atmosphere Climate model

Emission model

CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Ocean

Land Surface&AIM Socio-Econ.
Emission Scenario(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)

LanduseSocio-Econ.
Factors

Water
Resource

Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply

Adaptation

Impact model

7

Observed Impacts ofGlobal Warming8Observed Impacts of Global Warming
Retreat of Glaciers
Tianshan Glaciers (disappeared by 22% for the past 40 years)
Tibettian Glaciers (disappeared 4420km2 (9%) for the past 30 years)
Himalayan Glaciers (500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by 2035)
Heat Wave
45-49oC in May, 2003 in India (1600 death)
2-3 oC increase in July, 2004 in Japan (heat stroke patients more than 600 inTokyo)
Typhoon10 typhoon landed in 2004 in Japan (>200 death, 120 billion $ damage)
Increasing damage in Philippines (900 death, Nov. 2004, >500 , Dec. 2004)
Wind Storm
Increasing wind storm in Mongolia

9Observed Impacts in China and Japan
China・Sea level rise: 1.4 – 2.5 mm per year
・Change in plant growing period 2-3.5 days in temperature increase 1oC
・Coral reef appearing in Gungxi and Haian Provinces
Japan・Sea level rise 2.03mm/year (1970- 2003)• Lake Ice: Lake Suwa in Nagano Prefecture
Omiwatari, “the divinity’s pathway,” Omiwatari has not been seen very often inrecent years•Decreased alpine flora in Hokkaido, the north island in Japan and other highmountains• Expanded distribution of southern broad-leaved evergreen trees such as theChinese Evergreen Oak• Nagasakiageha butterfly (Papilio memnon thunbergii), the northern border forwhich has been Kyushu and Shikoku Islands, appeared in Mie Prefecture in the1990s, then in Tokyo area in early 2000s• Appearance of the southern tent spider, seen only in western Japan in the 1970s,
in the Kanto Region in the 1980s.
• Expansion of the wintering spot of the White-Fronted Goose to Hokkaido• Appearance of tropical fish in Osaka Bay.
•Breaching of Coral Reef in Okinawa islands• Shifting habitats of ermine and grouse on mountains such as Hakusan andTateyama to higher elevations. There is some danger of complete disappearance.

10Significance 1%

5%10%
N. S.
N. Test
Earlier Later※Change in Days in about 50years (Minus means earlierflowering)※Stat. test if the number of data
is longer than 48 years

Earlier Flowering of Cherry Trees in Japan

11

Daily max. temperature and number of heat stroke patients

Daily Max. Temp.

Number of heat stroke patientstransported to hospitals

who were transported to hospitals in Tokyo suburban areas(May – Sep, 2004）

Number of heat stroke patientstransported to hospitals

Cumulative number of Heat Stroke Patients in 2000〜2003

http://www.nies.go.jp/impact/index.html

12Numberof Heat Stroke Patients
気温別熱中症患者発生数
transported to hospitals

Standalized（ｂ）補正済み

201510Tokyo (center)
東京２３区
Tokyo (suburban)
東京都下
Kawasaki
川崎市
Nagoya名古屋市

5020 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Number of heat stroke patients
熱中症患者平均搬送数
transportedto hospitals

Numberof heat stroke patients
熱中症患者平均搬送数
transported to hospitals（ａ）

Numberof Heat Stroke Patients
気温別熱中症患者発生数
transported to hospitals3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5

Tokyo (center)
東京２３区
Tokyo (suburban)
東京都下
Kawasaki
川崎市
Nagoya名古屋市

1.00.50.0
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

日最高気温（℃）
Dailymax. temp(oC)

1816141210
864
20Tokyo (center)
区
東京２３Tokyo (suburban)
東京都下
Kawasaki
川崎市
Nagoya名古屋市

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30o（℃）
Daily
ave. temp(C)
日平均気温

Number of heat stroke patients
熱中症患者平均搬送数
transported to hospitals

Numberof heat stroke patients
熱中症患者平均搬送数
transported to hospitalsDaily
max. temp(oC)
日最高気温（℃）
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5

東京２３区
Tokyo (center)
Tokyo (suburban)
東京都下
Kawasaki
川崎市
Nagoya名古屋市

1.0
0.50.015 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Daily日平均気温（℃）
ave. temp(oC)

13

Heat Stroke Early Warning System

http://www.nies.go.jp/impact/index.html

http://www.nies.go.jp/health/HeatStroke/index.html

14Future Climate Projection

15

Future Climate Projection by the Earth Simulator
Earth Simulator

NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

16

Temperature (1950〜2100)

Temperature
Increase (℃）

NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

17Precipitation (1950〜2100)

Change in Precipitation (%)

NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

18160140120100

Change in higher
temperature days（1900〜2100）

80
60
40

Daily maximum temperature 30
oC without heat island effects

2001900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1210864

Change in summer heavy
rain (June-August, 1990〜2100）
Daily precipitation is more than100mm

201900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC 19

Global ClimateModel（280km)

Regional Climate Model(JMA/MRI)To predict future regional
climate change inspatially high resolution(20km)

Asian ClimateModel(60km)

Japan Regional
Climate Model(20km)

Nesting
To use GCM output asboundary conditions forregional Climate Model
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)/Metrological Research Institute (MRI)

20

Present50 years

100 years（1981〜2000 Ave.）（2031〜2050 Ave.）（2081〜2100 Ave.）

Predicted Average
Temperature in
January

21

Present

50 years

100 years（1981〜2000 Ave.）（2031〜2050 Ave.）（2081〜2100 Ave.）

Predicted Average
Precipitation inJanuary22Dr. K. Wada(NationalInstitute forLand andInfrastructureManagement)%Fig Change in 100 years probability maximum daily precipitation
using Gumbel Distribution (Future (100 years)/ present)

23

Future Impacts

24

A: Potential productivity of wheat in 2000 and 2050

1) Potential Productivity of wheat in 2000

Based on CCSR/NIES Climate Model (A1B)

0

1

2

34 (t/ha)25

2) Potential Productivity of wheat in 2050
(No adaptation case)

0

1

2

34 (t/ha)26

3) Potential Productivity of wheat in 2050
(Adaptation case: changing variety andplanting date)01

2

34 (t/ha)27B) Heat Damage on Rice Production(Present Condition)• Damage due to heat wave occurred in some regions

36%

Damage Index = [ Productivity without heat stress (A)−Productivity withheat stress (B) ] / (A)28

Heat Damage on Rice Production (2060)• Damage will increase in the whole world

02%

Change in Index＝ Index (2060)−Index (1990)

29C) Water stress index in 2000 and 2100
(A) Water stress index in 2000

“Water stress index” is defined as the ratio between water
withdrawal and renewable water resource in a river basin(figure’s case), region, country or other boundaries. High value
implies the higher risk of water shortage.

(B1) Water stress index in 2100
(Unsustainable society scenario)(B2) Water stress index in 2100
(Sustainable society scenario)

1 5 10020 40 60 80 100 〜(%)

30D) Heat stress Impacts
Model construction
Daily mortality data for the 47
prefectures of Japan(DDNpref,y,d)Daily maximum temperature
data for the 47 prefectures ofJapan (Tmaxpref,y,d)Construction of excess mortality estimation model- Formula to estimate optimal temperature, relative excess
mortality and density of excess mortality due to heat stress

Optimal temperature (TO)Preparation of climate scenarios
Observed monthly climate
data set (ObsMTmaxgrid,y,m)
Daily climate model
output (ModTmaxgrid,y,d)Present and future daily maximum
temperature scenarios (Tmaxgrid,y,d)Number of days on which Tmax is higher than TO (N1grid,y,N2grid,y)Relative excess mortality due to heat stress (RelADNEADNOgrid,y)Annual average mortality rateby country (ADRcnt)
Population density (DenPNgrid)

Density of excess mortality due to heat stress (DenADNEgrid,y)Administrative boundaries
Excess mortality due to heat stress by country
Resolution of spatial data
1.125°

0.5°

2.5′

Model application

31

Excess mortality density due to heat stress in the existing condition and the future

1990s

2090s

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100(death/km2) 32

Excess mortality density due to heat stress in the existing condition and the future

1990s

2090s

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100(death/km2)

33

Changes in excess mortality density due to heat stress(Future excess mortality density - Existing excess mortality density)

10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1(death/km2)

34

Rate of change of excess mortality density due to heat stress(Future excess mortality density / Existing excess mortality density x 100 – 100 (%))

-100 0 200 400 600 800 (%)

35

To avoid serious CC impacts, it is necessary to stabilize
temperature rise below 2 degree compared with preindustrialized level

2° C

IPCC TAR, 2001

36

GHG-475ppm

2100

2090

2080

2070

0年
YearBaU

650
550
500
2060

0.052050

GHG: Greenhouse gases

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2040

1.0

10

2030

GHG475ppm

152020475BaU

2010

2.020

2000

650
550
500

3.0Global GHG emissions

1990

BaU

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

4.0

25

Temperature raise(global average)

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature raise(1990年=0.6℃)(above the気温上昇
pre-industriallevel)

5.0

年
YearGHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm•It is estimated that around 50% GHG
reductions in 2050 are required tocontrol temperature raise below 2oC•Japan may be required more reduction (60-80%).
Another country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied(UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on).

GHG-650ppm•Impacts will beoccurred even in2oC temp control.
•Adaptation isnecessary.
Calculated byAIM/Impact[policy]
Model37

SummaryFigure Asia and its subregions as used in generating theclimate change projections for SRES emission scenarios
based on seven A-O GCM experiments

38

Table Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climatechange by subregions in Asia (Tentative)
Sub-regions

FoodAndFiber

Biodiversity

Water
Resource

CoastalEcosystem

Human
HealthSettlements

Land
DegradationNorth Asia

+1 / H-2 / M+1 / M-1 / M-1 / M-1 / M-1 / M

Central Asia-2 / H-1 / M-2 / VH-1 / L-2 / M-1 / M-2 / H

TibetanPlateau+1/ L-2 / M-1 / M

NANo Info

No Info-1 / L

East Asia-2 / VH-2 / H-2 / H-2 / H-1 / H-1 / H-2 / HSouth Asia

-2 / H-2 / H-2 / H-2 / H-2 / M-1 / M-2 / HSoutheastAsia-2 / H-2 / H-1 / H-2 / H-2 / H-1 / M-2 / H

Vulnerability:-2 – Highly Vulnerable-1 – Moderately Vulnerable
0 – Slightly or NotVulnerable+1 – Moderately Resilient+2 – Most Resilient

Level ofConfidence:

VH - Very HighH - High
M - Medium
L - Low
VL - Very Low

39

Summary1) Impacts of Global Warming have been observed in AP region.
2) Significant impacts will be predicted in all sub-regions andsectors.
3) Precise regional climate prediction is necessary to conduct
regional vulnerability assessment.
4) Adaptation is key measures to mitigate current and future
impacts.
5) Research Needs
To identify Hot spots/sectors in AP region
To assess long-term and short-term (extreme events) impacts
and adaptation measures
To identify thresholds of impacts
To assist capacity building of Impact researchers in AP region40