Japan – UK Joint Research Project, The first workshop on“Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development”
Mita Kaigisho, Tokyo, Japan

Modeling Activity to support
Japan “LCS toward 2050” project
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kyoto University
脱温暖化
2050
"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

1

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
[FY2004-2006(+2years), Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Advisory board：：
advice to projectTechno-Socio Innovation Study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

GHG emission

Urban structure

EE improvement
Structure change
New energy
Life-stylechangeGHG reduction target

Middle-term
Target year

Loge-term
Target year

2010

2050

Intervention
scenario

2020（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

2000

Long-term
Scenario
Development
Study

Transportation
systemIT-society

Energy saving Tech. innovationBaU scenario

1990

Development of socioeconomic scenarios,
evaluating countermeasures with socialeconomic-technology
modelsNext generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Reduction
Target study

Effective

Valid
5
3
1
-1

EquitySuitable

Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target

5 teams
60 Researchers

Propose options of long-term global warming policy"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 20062

Objectives of LCS scenario study
1. Developing LCS scenarios which satisfy the prescribedemission targets as well as the related environmental,
economical and social targets.
targets
2. The scenarios are concrete, plausible, quantitative andconsistent with technology, economy and sociality.
3. However, the LCS may be far from the BaU pathway(current trend), and in order to reach them, we must
identify groups of “Trend Breaking Interventions”
4. To identify, and evaluate the “Trend Breaking
Interventions” from the viewpoint of technological,
environmental, and economical aspects are required.
required"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

3

In order to describe the plausible, feasible,and consistent future, we are proceeding
the study in the following steps
1. Description of narrative scenarios and storylines,
supported by project members, the advisory board,interviews to experts.
2. Construction of world visions in 2020 as the extrapolationof historical trends with likely counter-measures.
3. Construction of world visions in 2050 as the realization of
Low Carbon Society (LCS) which satisfy global GHG
emission constraints.
4. Identification and evaluation of required interventions(Trend Breaking Interventions) that induce the society to
LCS.

"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 20064

Forecasting from now and Backcasting fromfuture prescribed/normative world

Mitigation
Technology
development

Required

Trend breaking
Intervention and
Investment

Sufficient calibrationin order to reflect
historical trends

Backcasting
Checking
year"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Service demandchangeby changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions

2020

Long-term target year

Calculation of required
intervention by dynamic
models2000

Reference
futureworld(BaU)

Forecasting

Release of
the study
resultEnvironmental pressure

Technology development,socio-economic change
projected by wellcalibrated dynamic
modelsNormative
target world

2050

June 14th, 2006

5

Two types of models were required to support
scenario development(1) Snapshot model
The first group focuses on describing LCS in a certain future(e.g. year 2050), concretely, quantitatively, and consistently
with physical, economical, technological laws.
We call the models, “Snapshot models”. Examples are;• Household Production and Lifestyle model• Passenger and Freight transportation demandmodel• Energy supply and demand balance model• Energy technology bottom-up model• Inter-sectoral economic model"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

6

Two types of models were required to support
scenario development(2) Transition model
The second group focuses on the dynamics and trendtransition of the society, economic system, and thetechnological system. We call models of the group, “Transition
models”. Examples are;
• Population and household dynamics model• Material stock and flow dynamics model• Building Dynamics model• Microeconomic model
We link the “Snapshot models” and the “Transition
models” to construct LCS scenarios, and to
identify/evaluate required interventions for realizing
LCS.
"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

7

Relationship among element models"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

8

In order to describe the plausible, feasible,and consistent future, we are proceeding
the study in the following steps
1. Description of narrative scenarios and storylines,
supported by project members, the advisory board,interviews to experts.
2. Construction of world visions in 2020 as the extrapolationof historical trends with likely counter-measures.
3. Construction of world visions in 2050 as the realization of
Low Carbon Society (LCS) which satisfy global GHG
emission constraints.
4. Identification and evaluation of required interventions(Trend Breaking Interventions) that induce the society to
LCS.

"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

9

As for LCS visions, we prepared two
different but likely future societies
Scenario A

Scenario B

Bustling, Technology-driven

Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban concentrated/
Individualistic

Decentralized, Communityoriented, Self-sufficientCentralized production/recycle

Produce locally, consume
locally,

Convenient and Beneficial

Social and Cultural Values

Akemi Imagawa"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

10

Key concepts of two scenarios"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

11

Key concepts of two scenarios (2)"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200612

On these two scenarios, we allocate possible
trend-breaking options"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200613

To analyze the feasibility and impacts ofinterventions with the models"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

14

Population and Household Model• Drastic change in Japan’s society by 2050 is on the population structure.
Downturn in birthrate, depopulation and aging will continue until 2050, andthey affect greatly the future vision.
• A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate modelfor household types, with spatial resolution of provinces, land-use types
and climate zones and five family types was developed, and is used toanalyze effects of depopulation and changes in family composition on therealization of LCS.
Total population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Life table[Sex, Age]

Consistency

Province-wiselife table[Sex, Age]

Province-wise
Population(Period T-1)
[Sex, Age]

Adjustment

Fertility rate
[Age]
Consistency

International
Net-migration(Japanese)
Total population(Period T)[Sex, Age]International
net-migration(Outsider)

Adjustment
Consistency

Headship rate
[Sex, Age, Family]

Total number ofHousehold(Period T)[Family-wise]

Province-wise
fertility rate
[Age]

: Data flow
: Exogenous variable: Endogenous variable

Province-wisenet-migration[Sex, Age]

Province-wiseheadship rate
[Sex, Age, Family]
Province-wiseclimatic division
share
Province-wiselanduse Cls.
share

Landuse Cls.-wise
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]

Province-wise
Population(Period T)[Sex, Age]

Climatic zone
-wise household(Period T)[ Family]

Province-wisehousehold(Period T)[Family]

Flowchart of PHM"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200615

Building Dynamics Model• Enhancement of building insulation is very effective countermeasures. 60% of the heating
demand from the residential sector can be cut down, if appropriate insulation systems are
installed. Besides, configuration of buildings in urban and rural area affects social energy
efficiency greatly.
• In order to take account these factors, a model of building dynamics (BDM) was developed.
• It is a cohort model with a spatial resolution of climate zones, four heat insulation levels,
four residential building types, and six commercial building types.
Number of dwelling stock(year T-1)

Unoccupied rate

60[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level,
construction year]

Number ofhouseholds

Population andHousehold Model

50
40

Number of new dwellings(year T)

30
Share by type ofbuilding

Survival rat

20
Share by region

Share byconstruction material[Region, types of buildings,
construction material, insulation level]

Without insulation
Standard of 1992

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

Number of new dwellings(year T)2010

[Region, types of buildings,
construction material,
insulation level, construction year]

02005

Survived number of dwellings(year T)

10
Share byinsulation level

Standard of 1980
Standard of 1999

Renovation rate

Number of dwelling stock(year T)
[Region, types of buildings,
construction material,
insulation level, construction year]

Householdproduction andlifestyle model
Bottom-up
engineeringmodel：endogenous variable：exogenous variable

Projection of residential dwelling stockby insulation level (number in million)

Flowchart of BDM (residential)"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200616

Household Production and Lifestyle Model• CO2 emissions from the residential sector have been increasing with the growing numberof households and people’s lifestyle changes. The trend is expected to continue with the
spreading use of ICT appliances and housekeeping robots.
• People’s preference of goods and service, the efficiency improvements of householdproduction are greatly affects the realization of the LCS.
• The Household
Time use
Production and Lifestyle
DisposalHistorical trend
income:Data flow
scenario
Model(HPLM) simulates:Exogenous variable
Liner Expenditure Systemenergy service demand,:Endogenous variablewaste generation, andHouseholdGoods and service preference module
Stock Capitalwater consumption forhousehold production by
four household types,
Amusement
Clothing
Food
Education
Housework
HealthResidence
Sleep
Other
under prescribedscenarios of household
type composition, age
Nesting structure of household production
composition, income
Material and energy balance module
budget, and time budget
in the future.
Revealed
Revealed
Revealed
Energy service
demandWaterdemandMaterial
demandFlowchart of HPLM
"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200617

Household Production and Lifestyle Model（２）•The model can consider demographic and socioeconomic trends
with consistency, together with Population and Household
Dynamics Model, Building Dynamics Model, and Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model.
Population and household
Dynamic model

Building
Dynamic model

Demographic information

Linking among
Household production
and lifestyle model andrelated models →Macroeconomic model

Building
characteristics

Disposal income
Interest rate, Good priceHousehold production and lifestylemodel

Revealed demands:Data flow

Endusemodel:Endogenous variable:ModelCO2emission"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Energycomsumption

Solid
Waste

Water
pollutantsAir
pollutants

June 14th, 2006

18

Passenger Transportation Demand Model• Many effective countermeasures exist related with transportation. Modal shift
from private motor vehicles to mass transit systems, urban planning towards
compact cities, transportation substitution with diffusions of teleworking andvirtual communication systems and so on.
• Passenger Transportation Demand
Model (PTDM) can simulatetransportation demand associatedwith changes in population
distribution, social environment,
people’s activity patterns, modal
shares and average trip distances.
• The demands are divided into two
types,
1)Intra-regional transportation(within the daily living area),2)Inter-region transportation(between the daily living areas ),Macro Economic Model

Employment[Attribute]
License[Attribute]

Population[Attribute, Area]

Population[Attribute]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Day, Area, Objective]

Trip Generation Coefficient[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Day, Area, Mode]

Modal Share(%)[Attribute, Objective, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Day, Area, Mode]

Average Trip Distance(km/Trip)[Mode]
Intra-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Inter-Area Transportation(person-km)[Mode]

Net-Total
Conversion ratio
Passenger Transportation[Persons-km]

and they are calculated separately.
Intra-Area Transportation"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Population Dynamic Model

Population[Attribute, Area]：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables
Inter-Area Transportation

June 14th, 2006

19

Passenger Transportation Demand Model (2)1,200,000

450,000
400,000

1,000,000

350,000
800,000

300,000
250,000

600,000

200,000
400,000

150,000
100,000

200,000

50,000
0

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2000

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Inter-region transportation demand by mode Intra-region transportation demand by modeof transportation (mil. person-km)

of transportation (mil. person-km)

1,600,000

1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1970

1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000

1990

2010

2030

2050

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total transportation demand by mode of Totaltransportation (mil. person-km)
Buses

Aviationtransportation

demand(mil.person-km/cap)
Pass.cars"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Maritime

Railwayspercapita• In this example, thespreading ofcompact cities isassumed. Thischange causes a
decrease in average
trip distance andalso a low growthrate of per capita
transportation
demand.
• In addition, theshare of railways
transportation will
increase rapidly due
to the promotion ofmodal shift from car
to train.

Walk&Bike

June 14th, 200620

Material Stock and Flow Model
Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM) estimates the change of material
stocks and flow in the society. Factors considered in the model are final
consumption and investments which are affected by capital stocks, material
densities of goods, physical input output coefficients of production sectors,
and recycling rate of wastes.

Macroeconomic
Model

Investmentof Goods

Final Consumptionof Goods

Import / Exportof Goods
Building Dynamics
Model

Stock dynamics greatly affects social
energy/material efficiency

Investment Shareof Material

Initial Material
StocksMaterial Demandfor Products

Material Stocks

Service producedby the stockkoc
st ateof n rse i oea lat
cr mu
De cu
ac

Recycling

Material Flow among
Domestic Sectors

Generated Waste

Material Import

Increase of service efficiency
Physicalstock

RecycleExtraction fromthe Environment
Recycling Rate

Waste

Production including
reproduction
Decommissioning
Inputs of virgin material

Material Input for Construction
and Rehabilitation of Building
Physical Input Output
Coefficient for Production

Lifetime

Saturation ofservice demand
Stock, Flows

Material Densityof Goods

These factors
affect energy
consumption，
greatly

Final Disposal: Data flow
: Exogenous variable: Endogenous variable

Flowchart of MSFM

year

"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200621

Energy Supply and Demand Balance Model• To supply CO2 free electricity, electricity from fossil fuels would be coupled with carbon
capture and storage (CCS). The other way is to use nuclear, renewable and hydrogen.
Current hydrogen production processes of on-site fossil fuel reforming need to bechanged, since it is economically difficult to capture the CO2 from widely dispersed
facilities.
•As for heat sources, fossil
fuel use is replaced byrenewable, heat from fuelcell cogeneration systems
and heat pumps. As atransportation fuel, biofuels
would be a possible option
besides CO2 free electricity
and hydrogen.
•Energy Supply and Demand
Balance Model (ESDBM)
seeks optimum
configurations of the energy
system based on the energybalance between supply anddemand, especially withdetailed description ofrenewables.
"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200622

Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model• Taking into account the countermeasures proposed in the individual models, Inter-sector
and Macro Economic Model (IMEM) consists of a sequential dynamic general equilibrium
module for a single country coupled with a macroeconomic module.
• The model can be used to analyze the impacts of energy efficient and dematerialization
technologies in industrial sectors, progress in informatization, and increase of service
sectors.
Macroeconomic module⑥

output matrix

input

⑥

⑪
assumption

output"2050 June Expert Workshop"①

IO tablein 2000
fixed capitalformation
matrix in 2000
tech
capital profile
in sector⑨

production

production and income

data in2000

input coefficient
on non-energy② ②

V matrixin 2000tech

tech&preference⑩

energy balance table(output)balancecondition

SNA

ext. trnsact.
account

⑥

cap.
goods

output coefficient
on non-energy

input matrix

account ofinc. & expnd.

commodity supply

energy①

CO2

production and costnonenergy

tech

⑫

②

⑦
⑧

socialfixed capital stock
matrix⑪

capital stock⑩

compensationof cap. goods④⑦
capital③
output coefficient ①
on energy
labor⑫

intermediatedemandcommodity demandenergy balance table(input)value nonadded energy

energy balancetable in 2000

final demand sector

final constech⑤
import&exportenergyeconomic
growthproduction sector

investment①

Input coefficienton energy

CGE module① production function② commodity market③ capital market④ labor market⑤ calculation of GDE⑥ expenditure and income
in production sector⑦ expenditure and income
in household andgovernment⑧ assumption of import andexport⑨ fixed capital stock
matrix⑩ investment goods market⑪ capital stock⑫ CO2 emissions

Structure of Inter-sector Module
June 14th, 200623

Modeled production sectors andcommodities in the inter-sector module
Commodities

Activities
Primary
industry
MiningManufacturing

Agriculture / Forestry / Fishing
Coal mining / Crude oil andnatural gas mining / Other
miningFood products and beverages /Textiles / Pulp, paper and paper
products / Publishing andprinting / Chemical materials /Chemical products / Petroleum
products / Coal products /Non-metallic mineral products /Pig iron and crude steel / Other
steel products / Non-ferrous
metal / Fabricated metal
products / Machinery /Electrical machinery, equipment
and supplies / Transport
equipment / Precision
instruments / Other
manufacturing

Construction

Power plant

Transport andcommunications

SecondaryenergyPrimary
industry
Other mining

manufacturing

Nuclear power plant / Thermal
power plant / Hydro power plant/ Geothermal plant /Photovoltaic generation / Windpower plant / Waste power
plant / Biomass power plant

Town gas
Water supply
ServicePrimary energy

Wholesale and retail trade /Finance and insurance / Realestate / Public service
activities / Other service
activities
Railway transport / Road
transport / Water transport /Air transport / Other
transport / Communications"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Coal / Crude oil / Natural gas/ Nuclear / Hydro /Geothermal / Photovoltaic /Wind / Waste / Biomass
Coaks / Other coal products /Gasoline / Naphtha / Jet fuel/ Kerosene / Light oil / Heavy
oil / LPG / Other petrorium
products / Town gas /Electricity / Hydrogen / Heat
Agriculture / Forestry /Fishing
Food products and beverages/ Textiles / Pulp, paper andpaper products / Publishingand printing / Chemicalmaterials / Chemical products/ Non-metallic mineralproducts / Pig iron and crude
steel / Other steel products /Non-ferrous metal /Fabricated metal products /Machinery / Electricalmachinery ,equipment andsupplies / Transport
equipment / Precision
instruments / Other
manufacturing

Construction
Water supply
Service

Transport andcommunications

Wholesale and retail trade /Finance and insurance / Realestate / Public service
activities / Other service
activities
Railway transport / Road
transport / Water transport/ Air transport / Other
transport / Communications

June 14th, 2006

24

300

0

<Sectors>

Agriculture
Forestry
Fishing
Coal mining
Crude oil & NG mining
Other mining
Food products & beverages
TextilesPulp, paper & paper products
Publishing & printing
Chemical materials
Chemical products
Petroleum products
Coal products
Non-metallic mineral
Pig iron & crude steel
Other steel products
Non-ferrous metal
Fabricated metal products
MachineryElec.machine, equip. & supplies
Transport equipment
Precision instruments
Other manufacturing
Construction
Thermal power plant
Non-thermal power plant
Town gas
Water supply
Wholesale & retail trade
Finance & insurance
Real estate
Railway transport
Road transport
Water transport
Air transport
Other transport
Communications
Public service activities
Other service activities

Tri. yen at 2000 price

Examples of the projected sector productions
in year 2050

350

2000
2050 A
2050 B

250

200

150

100

50

"2050 June Expert Workshop"
June 14th, 2006
25

Besides these models, we prepared
Menoco Tool
• “Menoco” means “back of theenvelope” type calculation in
Japanese. It was developed on MS
Excel, and calculates an energybalance table, a CO2 emission table
It is suitable for communication
among stakeholders to design LCS.

Service Demand[Service]

Share of Energy[Service, Energy]

EnergyImprovement[Service, Energy]

Energy consumption
in Industrial sector[Service, Energy]
Energy consumption
in Residential sector[Service, Energy]

Environmental Options Database (EDB)・A database system which stores information ofrelated activities.
・Activity includes energy technology, institution,
infrastructure, lifestyle, and other aspects, andnarrative description and quantitative value areentered in the database.
・An engineering bottom-up type energy andemission calculator is attached to this database.
・The EDB serves as an exchange platform between
the each sectors experts and the scenario team.

Energy Balance
Table[Sector, Energy]

Energy consumption
in Commercial sector[Service, Energy]

CO2 Emission
Factor[Energy]

Energy consumptionin Transportation sector[Service, Energy]
Electricity
demandEnergy consumptionin Transformation andPower Generation[Energy]

CO2 Emission
Table[Sector, Energy]: Data flow
: Exogenous variable: Endogenous variable

Flowchart of the “Menoco”"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

26

Primary energy supply in scenario B
Primary energy supply (Mtoe)
0
100 200 300 400 500 600
Year 2000
Hydrogen,NG with CCS,

NuclearH2 andrenewable
Biomass
Coal
Biomass
Solar/Wind"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Oil
NuclearNatural Gas
Hydro
June 14th, 200627

CO2 emissions by sector
-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

(MtC)

2000

A scenario

27 % of 1990, or 30% of 2000,
Large reduction in transportation,
residential and commercial sectors
B scenario

Industrial
Transportation, Passenger"2050 June Expert Workshop"

Residential
Transportation, Freight

Commercial
Other

June 14th, 200628

A scenario"2050 June Expert Workshop"

-48%

-60%

-80%
B scenario
-73%

-50%
-34%
-15%

-19%

-24%

-40%

-41%

-30%
-21%

-11%

-20%

-72%

Reduction rate compared to 2000

Total

Fuel mix
C/C' inchangepower sector

Fuel mixchangeC'/E inend-usesectors

Energyefficiency
E/D
improvement

ServicedemandD
improvement

Factor decomposition of CO2 emission reduction

0%

-10%

-70%

June 14th, 200629

Expected Outcomes fromJapan LCS scenario study• Feasibility of reduction targets and LCS forJapan• Identification of countermeasures• Roadmap toward 2050 considering economic
impact and technology feasibility• Implication of LCS for other environmental
issues• Proposal of policy measures toward long-termsustainable society
脱温暖化
2050
"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 2006

30

"2050 June Expert Workshop"

June 14th, 200631

Freight Transportation Demand Model
・This model simulates freight transportation volume associated withchanges in industrial structure, material density of commodities,
transportation distance, and modal share.
Inter-sector andmacro economic model“Air transport”“Surface transport”
Production and import[JPY](product)Transport generation ratio[tonne/JPY](product)
Modal share [%](product, mode,
distance)

Production and import ofhigh-value added products[JPY]

Distribution of transport distance[%](product, distance)

Representative transport distance[km](distance)

Transportation volume[tonne-km](product, mode)

Transportation volume[tonne-km]

Transportation volume[tonne-km](mode)"2050 June Expert Workshop"：Data Flow
：Endogenous Variables：Exogenous Variables

June 14th, 2006

32

Freight Transportation Demand Model (2)8,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000
0

0
1980

1990

2000

A

1980

B

1990

2000

A
2050

2050
AG

MI

ME

CH

IL

IM

B

SP

OT

Freight Vehicle

Railway

Maritime

Transportation volume in tonnes by productTransportation volume in tonnes by mode

(1000 tonne)(1000 tonne)

8,000,000

700,000

7,000,000

600,000

6,000,000

500,000

5,000,000
400,000
4,000,000
300,000

3,000,000

200,000

2,000,000

100,000

1,000,000

0

0
1980

1990

～100km
500～ 750km

2000～300km
750 ～1000km
100

A

B
2050
300 500km～～

1000km

1980

1990

2000

A

B
2050

Small Freight Vehicle
Railway

Large Freight Vehicle
Maritime

Transportion volume in tonnes by transport

Transportion volume in tonne-km by mode

distance (1000 tonne)(mil. tonne-km)"2050 June Expert Workshop"• By year 2050,
volumes of freighttransport intonnage become
1.43 and 1.10
times of year
2000, in scenarios
A and B.
• In tonne-km, they
are 0.91 and
0.79 times,
because of thedecrease of theratios of longdistance basic
materials.
• On the contrary.
short distancetransport does
not decrease somuch.

June 14th, 200633