COVER STORY • Rising Geopolitical Risk — Another Story of the Global Economy • 1

Future Prospects of Geopolitical
Risks: Adapting to the New
Normal Era

By Keiichiro Komatsu

2016 was a year of dramatic change. Brexit and the election of
Donald Trump were seismic events that will have long-term influence.
In June, the British public voted in a referendum on the question ofwhether the United Kingdom should stay or leave as a member stateof the European Union, and surprised the rest of the world bydeciding to leave. Then in November, Trump, a presidential candidatefrom a purely business background, as chairman and president of the
Trump Organization, who had already surprised the world by winningthe competition within the Republican Party nomination, did so again
by beating the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton.
In December, the Italian public voted in their referendum andrejected a constitutional amendment. This means that the euro
currency is likely to eventually face another crisis as the majority ofbad debts in Europe are from Italy. Various elections in Europe thisyear put the concept of the EU as well as its future under scrutiny. The
extremely large numbers of refugees, mainly from the Middle East
and Africa, flowing into Europe, particularly since the summer of2015, also contributed to the UK referendum result and othercountries’ tightening of borders, against the idea of a borderless
Europe. Within this context, this paper discusses the new challenges
for the international community and the prospects for 2017 andbeyond.
In addition, this paper will also try to offer some ideas to help deal
with these challenges.

What Is Behind Brexit and the Trump Phenomena?
What we have already learnt from 2016 is that these changes bring,in the immediate short-term, i.e. on a weekly basis, noticeablefluctuations in the markets, including stock and currency markets. On
a monthly basis, however, the world economy has shown toughness
and has recovered. Yet, on an annual basis, structural changes aretaking place and such political events will have further impacts.
Trump has said that there will be great changes to the EU concept andthe euro in the future. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President François Hollande deny such a prospect. Some observers
say that it will be business as usual. Some say that the euro isfinished. Whatever happens, we should brace for significant changes
in coming times.
In this context, one should pose the question: do terms likenationalism and populism accurately express the nature of support
4 Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 2017

Author Keiichiro Komatsu

behind Brexit and the election of Trump? For the older generations,the concept of a single market in Europe under the EU is a relatively
recent one, coming in the wake of repeated great wars particularly
between France and Germany. The goal to establish a “United Statesof Europe”, uniting France and Germany as one country was symbolicof a new sense of values born after two World Wars.
However, for the new generations who have only seen the
deepening of integration of the EU during their lifetime, the EU isalready the status quo. In this sense, if one simply thinks that the
younger generation is in support of the unification of Europe andglobalism more than the older generation, this probably overlooks thedifference between the richer educated class with the tendency of
being pro-EU, and the less well-off supporters of Brexit among theyounger generation. By the same token, those who are highly
educated and relatively rich are believed to have favoured remaining
in the EU even among the older generation. Under the current
structure of the EU, the rich, educated urban population havebenefited from EU membership while those who are less well-off,
uneducated, and/or live in rural areas have felt rather victimised by
the EU.
Urban businesses have benefited from economies of scale in thelarger united EU market rather than a one-country market. In contrast,
small enterprises and family businesses could not benefit from
economies of scale and have been rather overwhelmed by large
businesses coming freely from other EU countries. If one is highly
educated and achieved a higher level of education, such as lawyers or
accountants, or medical doctors, then one can operate anywhere in
EU member countries. In contrast, those without a high level of
education and qualifications, who merely operate small businesses
locally, have not felt the benefit of membership of a larger EU market.
The principle is simple: people favour what they can benefit fromand dislike what they see as putting them in a disadvantageoussituation. This principle is a more important factor than the generation
gap. In this sense, the gap between the rich and the poor, highly andless educated, those benefiting and those who feel they are not,divided and polarised the UK. This same principle may divide andpolarise other countries in Europe as well. What this means is that theaccumulated frustration was expressed at the polls by people who felt
left behind and this voice became the majority. In Trump’s case in the
United States, there are also clear divisions between voters from theurban and rural areas corresponding to Trump and anti-Trump.

An Era of New Normal
At this point of time in early 2017, it is difficult to foresee how the
future will unfold as we have entered uncharted waters. What is clear
is that this new era will be of continuous dramatic changes, and thatwould become the “New Normal”. To understand the background of
the current international state of affairs, one needs to look back at thefollowing developments that have been particularly significant overthe last several years (Table 1). What is the common thread among
these events? It is anti-elitism, and more accurately, antiestablishment and anti-status quo.
First, in the Middle East, the regimes of former President Zine El
Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt werecondemned as dictatorships after the outbreak of the “Arab Spring”.
At that time, many Western countries both in Europe and North
America as well as the global media internationally supported theuprising of anti-government protests as democratic movements.
However, the ways in which the governments were overthrown by
these movements were technically illegal and very violent.
For instance, the author personally knows some cases where family
members of senior Tunisian officials were attacked by protestors athome while the officials were away. Their homes were destroyed andburnt down. Their wives and small children were taken somewhereagainst their will and disappeared. These series of incidents were notwidely broadcast by the global media.
In fact, the governments were not changed through democraticelections as they should have been. Yet the international community
still supported these movements as democratic. Taking the case of
Libya, some developed countries led by the UK and France even usedtheir air forces to conduct military operations (in reality in support ofanti-government movements against the then Muammar Gaddafi
regime). This resulted in the overthrow of the government without
democratic elections.
With the “Arab Spring”, even when one could understand the
feelings of people who were fed up with their existing governments
and wished to change them, it was technically still illegal and a violent
way of taking down a government. Thus, a serious question arose:whether an illegal and violent overthrowing of internationallyrecognised governments could be justified by the international
community or not.
Another serious question that arose was whether intervention ininternal affairs this way is acceptable or not. Furthermore, even if this
could be justified, legally-speaking, where is the consistency with theprinciple of the respect of the Rule of Law? In fact, before themassacres occurred in Bosnia, Rwanda and other places in the
middle of 1990s which attracted significant attention from theinternational community, it was conventional understanding thatintervention in internal affairs was illegal.
Even if intervention in internal affairs could be justified asinternational responsibility to protect the victims of a dictatorship, theTABLE 1

Major events & current affairs
The tide of anti-status quo
December 2010
onwards“Arab Spring”

2011

Global anti-inequality movements= Occupy movements(“99% vs. 1%”)

June 2014

Occupation of Mosul by “Islamic State” fighters(denying Syria-Iraq border)

September 2014

Scottish independence referendum

June 2016

Decision of UK to leave EU through referendum (Brexit)

November 2016

Victory of Donald Trump in US presidential election

Source: KRA (Komatsu Research & Advisory)

definition of dictatorship itself and who should judge a government as
a dictatorship have been questioned and there is no clear consensus
yet. At present, responsibility to protect is not international law.
These issues have caused several confusing international affairs inrecent years. For instance, President Vladimir Putin of Russia later
pointed to this Libyan intervention case when the West imposed
sanctions against his Russia after his military occupation andeventual annexation of Crimea in 2014. In fact, the West has not beensuccessful in convincing the majority of the Russian population who
have supported Putin’s annexation of Crimea.
In the same year, the Islamic State (IS) finally caught the attentionof the international community when its fighters occupied Mosul, oneof the largest oil and gas fields in northern Iraq. Not only personnel inthe international energy sector, but also experts in security became
worried about the possible influence of IS occupation of the region oninternational affairs.
Soon after IS fighters crossed the border from Syria into Iraq andcaptured Mosul, IS denied the border between Syria and Iraq. In fact,some independent observers have seen the border as unrealistic
considering the region’s social and political situation around theborder areas. The people that inhabit northern Syria and northern Iraq
are several tribes of the same Sunni Arabs.
The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has been perceived by many
as a Shia-dominated government, although Assad’s Ba’ath Party is
originally Arab socialist which used to be against religions including
Islam. This is very close to how the Ba’ath Party under former Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein was.
The regular army under the Assad regime was made up of
conscripts. After the outbreak of civil war in Syria, the Alawite fightersbegan to dominate the Assad army. Then most conscripts fromdifferent religious factions left the army. Since the Alawites are aminority population in the country, they fear losing power if a
democratic voting system is introduced. What has been overlooked isthe fact that Alawites have been questioned among Shias in theregions if they are actually part of the Shias. This might be a
Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 2017

5

COVER STORY 1

significant factor when trying to assess the distance between the
Assad regime and the Shia state of Iran are in the geopolitics of theregion. Nonetheless, international observers and most of the media
have tended to see Alawites as Shias.
In any case, the Assad regime is not seen as an ally by the Sunni
Arab tribes; rather, the tribes have felt suppressed by the Assadregime through the civil war since the “Arab Spring” began. In Iraq,
after Saddam Hussein’s government was overthrown, a Shiite
government emerged in Baghdad since the majority of the populationin Iraq are Shias. Consequently, as long as so-called democraticelections continue to establish the central government in Baghdad,
the Sunni population who inhabit mainly the north and west of Iraq
have no hope of coming to power again in the future. This is exactly
what the Alawites in Syria fear and why they support Assad. These
factors fuel the bond between Sunnis in Iraq and Syria, who tend to
be in support of the Sunni militia called IS.
The Syria-Iraq border is legal in the sense that it has internationalrecognition. However, some observers have questioned the legitimacyof the border on the basis of the historical fact that it was drawn
under the secret Sykes-Picot agreement between British and French
officials during World War I. When IS denied the border, it cannot be
refuted that those factors contributed to attracting relatively wide
support from the local Sunni-Arab tribal powers. Thus, the challenge
against the status quo by Sunni groups in the region is one side of
the conflict in the Middle East.
More than 15 years have passed since the declaration of the “Waron Terror” in 2001 and more than six years since the “Arab Spring”
began in 2010. The sad fact is that none of these countries Tunisia,
Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iraq in addition to Afghanistan, have yet
become reasonably stable.
Terror attacks have actually been increasing not only in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA), but also in many countries in the West.
Taking 2015 and 2016 alone, repeated large-scale attacks occurred in
Paris, Brussels, Nice, Berlin, Munich, Istanbul, Cairo, Baghdad,
Jeddah, Medina, Jerusalem, Dhaka, Bangkok, Jakarta and otherplaces by many militants, andintelligence personnel. Terror
attacks will expand exponentiallyunless the root causes and thesense of injustice in the world aretackled and mindsets changed
fundamentally on all sides.
Under these circumstances, thethreat of weapons of mass
destruction (WMDs) is becoming
more realistic and significant. If
anyone eventually uses WMDs,
they would most likely bebiological weapons and possibly
The Occupy Movement of 2011
chemical weapons rather than
6 Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 2017

nuclear. Biological weapons are also known as “WMDs for the poor”.
This is because of the extremely low cost of production and the easeof carrying them.
Furthermore, cyber wars are already taking place. For instance, themost recent controversial issues of fake news and hackers, including
those carried out by Russians during the US presidential election
campaign.

Repression by Force of Occupy Movements
Around the Globe
Following the “Arab Spring” from December 2010, anti-inequality
movements spread across the world in 2011 (Map 1). These were
known as “99% vs. 1%” movement or the Occupy Movement (Photo1), with the slogan “We are the 99%”.
In fact, especially since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s,
global inequality has increased rapidly. It was claimed at the time of
the 99% vs. 1% movement that the top 1% hold 40% of the world’s
wealth. Thus, frustrated protesters’ anti-status quo sentiment wasobserved in many countries. However, although it attracted asignificant number, it did not necessarily draw the vast majority. The
sheer scale of such movements divided people.
Globally, the authorities used force to repress those movements
and it became temporarily quiet for the next couple of years.

Scotland, Corbyn, and Trump
Then in 2014, the people in Scotland went to the polls andexpressed their will through the ballot box, instead of protests on thestreet. A significant number voted in support of Scottish
independence from the UK, many of them motivated not only by
Scottish nationalism but also by anti-status quo sentiment towards
the government in Westminster. The rest of the world who did notunderstand the anti-status quo feelings in Scotland was surprised by
how far the independence movement had come and then were
Photo 1: Keiichiro Komatsu, 10 November 2011 in Washington, DC

MAP 1

Locations of major “99% vs. 1%” movements

Source: KRA, November 2011

relieved to find that a majority of 55% voted in favour of remaining in
the UK.
However, some observers pointed out to the author that roughly up
to half of the population in Scotland are historically of “English
origin”, and well over the majority of those of “Scottish origin” werein favour of independence. Regarding the issue of Scotland, anotherreferendum on Scottish independence could be on the agenda again
depending on the outcome of the coming Brexit negotiations between
the UK government and the EU authorities in Brussels. This isbecause the majority of Scottish people who voted, voted to remain in
the EU, in contrast with the majority in England who voted to leave.
Thus, both the Scottish independence movement and the Brexit
decision have divided people.
Of course, there was no violence in Scotland, and democratic andlegal procedures of voting were held. The means of IS rising has been
violent, and this is a decisive difference between the two cases. Yet,when the author talked with some observers in the UK, they said that
there is something in common between what Scotland and IS are
trying to achieve. The common thread is that Scotland and IS areboth trying to redraw established borders and create new states.
What the establishment does not like is the ease with which they areboth trying to establish a new country/state, redefining the norm.
Then in 2015, far-left MP Jeremy Corbyn was elected as the leaderof the British Labour Party. His position was distant from the thenstatus quo that was established by former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s
New Labour (moving closer to Conservative policies). Corbyn
emphasised the importance of renationalising some industries and heis also known for his Euroscepticism, in contrast to both then Prime
Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party and Blair’s New Labour,which have pursued privatisation and globalisation as major parts ofkey policies. Corbyn’s victory surprised many, and his views havealienated some party supporters as well as members of his own
parliamentary team, leaving the Labour Party in a state of someturmoil.
Then the American presidential election campaign followed. Bernie
Sanders, a Democrat candidate considered to be from the left
emerged to compete against an established lawyer and former First
Lady Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination. This waswhile on the side of the Republicans, Trump emerged with his seriesof unusual speeches based on his successful experience as abusinessman, not as a politician. Neither Sanders nor Trump wereperceived to be from the political establishment in Washington, DC.
Eventually, Trump was elected as the 45th US president inNovember 2016 and inaugurated on 20 January 2017. Both Sanders
and Trump attracted significant support from people who were fed up
with the status quo which resulted in dividing the members of bothparties and even the whole of the electorate in the US. Thus, these
events in the last several years have shown a global tendency that at aJapan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 20177

COVER STORY 1

popular level roughly half of the population voted against the status
quo.
What one can see in these developments is that around half,
sometimes the majority, of the voting population of many countries
have felt elite-tired, more accurately establishment-tired, and wanted
new and fresh faces. Not only people from the bottom of the income
scale who might have been desperate and seeking great changes tothe current situation, but also many from the rest of the population
voted for the new norm.
For free competition to function properly in the social structure ofcapitalism, people need to be able to start from the same line. Of
course, this does not necessarily mean that people need to start fromthe same living standard. But they should be given equal
opportunities or at least opportunities within a range that enables
those at the bottom to catch up with those at the top throughreasonable efforts.
In fact, the real issue occurs when people start to lose hope that
their living standards will continue to worsen no matter how muchthey try. In such a situation, extremism could emerge everywhere andform a threat in the coming years. What is important is finding ways
to narrow the gap in opportunities rather than the gap in living
standards. To make capitalism function effectively with freecompetition, guaranteeing delivery of equal opportunity is necessary.
Otherwise, it does not work if people are already divided at the time ofbirth.
Trying to find a universal level that fits all countries is futile asdifferent fluctuating factors such as price indexes, exchange rates,
assets and income flow levels, and employment rates all affect theright level for each country at any given time. It is somewhat similar
to the problem of the global poverty line. When social and economic
factors differ significantly by country, the global poverty line can leadto misleading policies. It is important to try to minimise unreasonablegaps based on the social norms of each society. What is acceptable insome societies would not be acceptable in others, and thus
discussions must take into account these social norms, rather thansimply setting so-called global and/or universal lines.

government forces already putting up barricades. Yet the atmosphere
was still business as usual with families and children walking past as
if there was nothing different.
The next day, smoke was breaking out all over the place (Photo 2).
From around noon, the demonstrations became violent and a sectionof the military called CAPSAT started to revolt. Suddenly, a coup d’état
was taking place. Because it was so calm the day before, it didn’t feelvery real. It was such a great pity because the so-called “coupbusiness” in Africa had looked like it was dying down for nearly adecade, ever since Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo
successfully managed a change of government through democraticelections rather than by an illegal and violent coup d’état. Now a smallpart of Malagasy troops, CAPSAT, was resuming the coup business.
The author strongly felt that if the international community allowed it
to happen easily, it could spread like an epidemic again.
Before the coup, his role as special advisor to the president of the
Republic of Madagascar was to advise on economic policies to lift thenational economy through trade and investment promotion. This
included not only advising but actually making it happen by finding,bringing and assisting investors. However, his role had to change to ahighly diplomatic one where he and his colleagues made their very
best efforts to re-establish a legitimate government in the country.
Fortunately, in 2013, a democratic election was eventually held in
Madagascar and a new legitimate government established. As Raj
Makoond, a leading businessman from neighbouring Mauritius,eloquently put it, one should not underestimate the stability factor andmust find ways and means to include conflict prevention components
at the very outset of a development strategy.
In fact, the author had worried during the Malagasy coup that this
could spread. Indeed, the “Arab Spring” began in 2010. Just like thecase of Madagascar, it was not only illegal and violent but alsosudden. The development and expansion of technologies and sales ofradio, mobile phones and ICT made this possible. Indeed, these newtechnologies made it easier for anti-government groups to organise
Photo 2: Keiichiro Komatsu, 26 January 2009 in Antananarivo

The Nature of Conflicts in the Age of New Normal
Conflicts today involve sudden bombings and terror attacks out of
the blue. Even if you sense that something might be coming, things
remain peaceful until it actually happens. Moreover, asymmetricwarfare is already the norm, and future wars are more likely to befought through terror attacks and guerrilla warfare.
In January 2009, the author was in the outskirts of Antananarivo,
the capital of Madagascar, visiting a national park to see the lemurs.
For those who do not know, Madagascar is a huge island country in
the Indian Ocean next to the African continent. While there wererumours that a coup d’état could take place at any time, it was a very
peaceful day. On the way back to Antananarivo, the author saw anti8 Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 2017

Madagascar during the coup

MAP 2

Shift in centre of economic growth① Latter half of the 19th century
to the 1960s:
hegemony of Europe andNorth America② The 1960s to the 1980s:
Japan’s high growth period②③ The latter half of the 1980s to
the 1990s:
rapid growth of Southeast
Asia

①
⑤
⑥

④

③

④ Since the 2000s:
expansion of China⑤ Ongoing:
development of India into a
growth hub after China⑥ Near future?:development of Indian Ocean
Rim, Middle East and Africa
regions

Source: KRA

Comparative per capita income
growth paths: East Asia & Pacificand Sub-Saharan Africa
900
800

785

East Asia & Pacific700

Low income

600

Sub-Saharan Africa

500
400
300

208

200

124
2000

1996

1992

1988

1984

1980

1976

1972

0

1968

100
1964

To understand the background of the idea, one needs to first lookback at the historical development of economic growth in theinternational community. Modern industries began with the Industrial
Revolution in Britain from the middle of 18th century. Looking at thecentre of world economic growth in the timespan of decades, we cansee that it has been shifting geographically from “east”, starting fromBritain westwards to North America and on to Asia, against theconventional image from the “West” to the “East” (Map 2). It is also
noticeable that the total GDP of developing countries has started toovertake that of developed countries with the emergence of markets
such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Thissuggests that the Northern Hemisphere-centred approaches need tochange.
When we look at the demographic structures of countries aroundthe world, developed countries including Japan are becoming

CHART 1

1960

Shifting Centres of Economic Growthincreasingly ageing societies with a combination of longevity and low
birth rates. There is a concern that this might hinder future economic
growth as the young population, the main source of labour, is in
decline. Even among the BRICS, the young population is either
already decreasing or not increasing, showing signs of ageing
societies. In contrast, some countries in the Middle East and many inAfrica have a constantly growing young population. This means thatdeveloping countries in the Middle East and Africa have the potential
to become the driving force for future global economic growth.
However, for that to happen, it is not sufficient to simply have a
growing young population. They need to be in work. If they can findGDP per capita index, 1960=100

such demonstrations.
The following year, in December 2010, the author was in Tunis
attending an international conference on economic co-operation
between Japan and the Arab League. The conference ended with great
success. Tunis seemed so safe and peaceful. A few days later, theauthor was still in Tunisia when suddenly the “Arab Spring” broke out.
Tunis was plunged into a conflict triggered by self-immolation.
President Ben Ali was ousted, and Tunisia has been in a situation
close to internal conflict ever since. This spread to Egypt, Libya, andYemen, where long-standing regimes lost power.
Recognising geopolitical risks in the years ahead, as mentioned
above, this paper will now propose an idea that might hopefully leadto a solution.

Source: Benno Ndulu et al., Challenges of African Growth: Opportunities, Constraints andStrategic Directions (The World Bank, 2007)

Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 20179

COVER STORY 1

10 Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 2017

CHART 2Comparison of per capita GDP
growth rates between Sub-SaharanAfrica and East Asia & Pacific andthe 4 waves of large-scale Japanese
investment to the region
900
800

785

East Asia & Pacific700

Low income

600

Sub-Saharan Africa

500
400
300

208

200

124
2000

1996

1992

1988

1984

1980

1976

1972

1968

0

1964

100
1960

GDP per capita index, 1960=100

The 4 waves (red arrows) of Japanese FDI into Southeast Asia:(¥100mn)
(%)
16000

90

1995

14000

80

1985

12000

70
60

10000

50

8000

40

6000
4000
2000

20

Asia

NIES 4ASEAN 4

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

10

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1971
1966

0

30

1979

1951-64

or create jobs in which they can find meaning and a sense of purpose,
they can become a major driving force for the world economy.
Otherwise, they may find meaning in extremism, leading todestabilisation and destruction.
It is therefore vital that there are jobs for the youth in the Middle
East and Africa. It is here that the Japanese experience may provide ahint. Chart 1 shows the growth rates of East Asia and the Pacific,
Sub-Saharan Africa, and low-income countries. Whilst Sub-SaharanAfrica’s growth rate is low and unchanging, that of East Asia and thePacific shows rapid increase since the mid-1970s. The widening of
the gap between the performance of East Asia and Sub-SaharanAfrica is shocking.
As Chart 2 shows, this increase corresponds to the “four waves” ofJapanese trade and investment into Southeast Asia and the Pacificregion. The entry of Japanese companies and inflow of Japanese
investment into this region contributed significantly to the lifting of
their economies. The four waves into Southeast Asia are since 1971,
since 1979, since 1985, and since 1995. This has sometimes beencalled a “happy marriage” between Japanese industries andSoutheast Asia.
It may be useful to analyse and learn from the “happy marriage”
experience of Japanese and East Asia and Pacific industries, in order
to try and recreate a similar experience in the Middle East and Africa.
Observers who have experience in working with Japanesebusinesses often comment on the Japanese “obsession of distance”.
Practically, geographical distance is the largest hindrance forJapanese industries. The recent developments in ICT and transportcapacity with new technology are helping to reduce this distance.
However, it is still not enough. In the author’s view, this physicaldistance can be bridged if there is a foothold in the Indian Ocean withthe long-term vision to create a larger regional market that connects
the Middle East and Africa with the Asia-Pacific regions through theIndian Ocean (Map 3).
The Indian Ocean is geographically and culturally the meeting pointof Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. While the Pacific Rim economic
zone with APEC is well-developed and functioning, the Indian Ocean
rim economic zone is still in a much earlier stage, and thus
developing the region is an urgent mission.
In this context, an important development took place in thesummer of 2016. For the first time, the Sixth Tokyo International
Conference on African Development (TICAD VI) was held outside
Japan on African soil. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abeannounced in Nairobi that “Japan bears the responsibility of fostering
the confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and of Asia and Africa
into a place that values freedom, the rule of law, and the market
economy, free from force or coercion, and making it prosperous.” The
uniqueness of TICAD VI is that despite having “Tokyo” in its name, its
emphasis is on multilateral co-operation and connecting the AsiaPacific region and Africa through the Indian Ocean. It has thepossibility to initiate a potential Asian economic miracle in the Middle

0

China

Source: created by KRA by combining graphs from (top) Benno Ndulu et al., Challenges ofAfrican Growth: Opportunities, Constraints and Strategic Directions (The World
Bank, 2007) and (bottom) Kengo Ikemoto, “A perspective on achieving sustainablegrowth of the East Asia region” (Institute for International Policy Studies), IIPS
Policy Paper 316J, February 2006

East and Africa in order to lift the region’s national economies in asustainable manner.
Increasing economic co-operation including public sector aid andprivate sector trade and investments in the Middle East and Africa
from developed countries will be one of the means to overcome thecoming difficulties and create prosperity for the world economy in the
future. The key is to make sure aid and investments are used in amanner that lifts the whole national economy of the receiving country
and to provide equal opportunities for the population. If only certain
sections of the population benefit in a manner that merely increases
inequality, the aid or investment will eventually lead to social
instability.

MAP 3

Regional economic integration is key
Indian-Ocean rim economic zone – Bridging Asia-Pacific to the Middle East & Africa

Japan-Asia Pacific“Happy Marriage”

APEC

Europe & Middle East &Africa Economic Zone
Source: KRA

Indian-Ocean Rim
economic zone

Conclusion: Change, Not Crisis
What we have seen is that there are two opposite forces in recent
international developments. On the one hand, there are forces for thedisintegration of the current status quo, such as independence fromthe EU or individual countries. On the other hand, globalisation is
likely to continue due to improvements in infrastructure andcommunication methods. Caught in the middle between these twoforces, we need to start to reconsider formerly taken for granted
notions like the nation-state. We also need to reconsider the
directions of economic policies to make the Middle East and Africa
the driving force of the world economy and not a centre of instability.
As early as the spring of 2011, when the then British Prime
Minister Cameron made the decision to use military force against
Gaddafi in Libya, the author’s former supervisor Wilfrid Knapp,emeritus fellow at the University of Oxford and expert on international
relations, said “Cameron does not know what he is doing. We areheading towards a Third Word War.” He mentioned this sense ofcrisis to the author, and said such a war is going to be similar toWorld War I and World War II in that people will be fighting“everywhere” across the world, but the difference would be thatguerrilla warfare and terror attacks would increase rapidly and thatpoliticians and historians will not be able to define when it started andended. It is likely to go on forever and must be stopped.
Those were the last words of Wilfrid Knapp. Usually he suggested
solutions, but this time he didn’t.
The international community will have to come together to invest in
developing countries in a manner that lifts the national economy ofeach country and provide hope for the people in the regions. It is time
for all to seriously come up with some solutions.
The author looks back at this supervisor’s words mentioned above
and is afraid that what he said is happening. This paper urges all
those readers who are concerned with these matters to discuss andco-operate to overcome the coming difficulties.
As one does this, it is necessary to change the present mindset ofseeing those political events as changing times rather than merely ascrisis. That way, one can focus on adapting our way of thinking andtreating those changes as opportunities. When living in turbulent
times, one must not wait for the storm to pass, but learn to dance inthe rain.
Keiichiro Komatsu (D.Phil. in International Relations, Oxon) is principal at
Komatsu Research & Advisory (KRA) and an expert in business promotion andcountry-risk analysis. He has worked at the Japanese Central Co-operative Bank
for Commerce and Industry, the World Bank, the British government (seconded
by JETRO) and Madagascar government as special advisor to the president of
the republic.

Japan SPOTLIGHT • March / April 201711