経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第8回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #8)

ΤʔδΣϯτϕʔεγϛϡϨʔγϣϯʹΑΔ
Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ͷϓϩϞʔγϣϯઓུ෼ੳ
Analyzing Promotion Strategies in a Crowdfunding Market
through Agent-based Simulation൒ా ୓ 1
H.Handa1૔‫ڮ‬અ໵ 1
S.Kurahashi1

1

1

ஜ೾େֶ
University of Tsukuba

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the impact of promotion strategy in the Crowdfunding market. We use an agent-based model of diffusion is proposed on an online social network. Regulationof decision making model influencing decisions on investment decisions, compare the results of performing three advertisement strategies, 1) advertisement to the whole 2) selective advertisement fot
opinion leaders 3) selective advertisement fot around invested consumers. Crowdfunding requiresthat earning a certain amount of money early.This paper shows that isurrounding advertisements
to funded consumers will lead to a faster take-off, and the advertising strategy to the surrounding
network of capitalists effectively functions are doing.

1͸͡Ίʹۙ೥ɼΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͷࢢ৔‫ن‬໛͸֦େ͍ͯ͠Δɽ໼໺‫[ ॴڀݚࡁܦ‬1] ͷௐࠪͰ͸ɼ2016 ೥౓ͷࠃ಺Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͷࢢ৔‫ن‬໛͸લ೥౓ൺ 68.1
ˋ૿ͷ 363 ԯ 3,400 ສԁͱ֦େ͠ɼ2017 ೥౓ͷ༧ଌͰ΋ 477 ԯ 8,700 ສԁΛ‫ࠐݟ‬ΜͰ͍Δɽࢢ৔͕֦େ͍ͯ͘͠தͰɼϓϩδΣΫτΛ੒ޭ͢ΔͨΊʹɼ‫ى‬Ҋऀ͸ͲͷΑ͏ͳϚʔέςΟϯάઓུΛߦ͏΂͖Ͱ͋Ζ͏͔ɽຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼΠϯλʔωοτ্ͷফඅऀωοτϫʔΫΛΤʔδΣϯτϕʔεϞσϦϯάʹͯߏங͠ɼΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ͷಛੑʹண໨্ͨ͠Ͱɼ༗ޮͳϚʔέςΟϯάઓུͷఏҊΛߦ͏ɽ2ઌߦ‫ڀݚ‬ઌߦ‫͖ͮجʹڀݚ‬ɼ෼ੳ͢΂͖Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͷফඅऀಛੑΛநग़͢Δɽ
Ordanini Β [2] ͸ɼΠϯλϏϡʔௐࠪʹΑΓɼϓϥοτϑΥʔϚʔɼফඅऀͷ͍ͣΕ΋‫ظ‬଴͢Δ͜ͱ͸ɼʮग़ࢿ͢Δʯͱ͍͏ߦಈʹΑͬͯੜ͡ΔΞΠσϯςΟϑΟέʔγϣϯͰ͋Δ͜ͱΛ໌Β͔ʹͨ͠ɽͦͷͨΊɼSNSͳͲͰࣗ਎͕ग़ࢿͨ͜͠ͱΛʮ֦ࢄʯ͍ͯ͘͠ͱͯ͠
͍ΔߦಈΛ߹࣮ͤͯࢪ͢Δɽ
Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͷϓϩδΣΫτ୯ҐͰͷૌ‫ٻ‬Ձ஋Λ Ward ͱ Ramachandran[3] ͸૬ؔ෼ੳʹΑͬͯߦ͍ɼSNS ্Ͱͷ஌໊౓͕ϓϩδΣΫτͷ੒ཱʹؔͯ͠࠷ॏཁͷཁҼͰ͋Δ͜ͱΛಋ͍ͨɽ‫࡚ٶ‬Β [4] ͸೔ຊ࠷େ‫ن‬໛ͷϓϥοτϑΥʔϜʮREADYFORʁʯͷ࣮σʔλ͔Β੒ޭཁҼ෼ੳΛߦ͍ͬͯΔɽ೔ຊͰ͸ී‫ٴ‬ͷਐΜͰ͍ͳ͔ͬͨ SNS ্Ͱͷ஌໊౓ΑΓ΋ɼ࣮ࣾձ্Ͱͷ஌໊౓͕༗ޮͰ͋Δͱࣔ͞Εͨɽ
Ward Βɼ‫࡚ٶ‬Βͷ‫ڀݚ‬͸ɼΫνίϛΛॏࢹ͢Δͱ͍͏
ordanini ͷௐࠪΛཪ෇͚Δ΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ3ࢢ৔Ϟσϧͷ࡞੒ޮՌతͳϚʔέςΟϯάઓུΛ‫ݕ‬౼͢Δ্Ͱɼ·ͣ‫ج‬ຊతͳࢢ৔ϞσϧΛΤʔδΣϯτϕʔεγϛϡϨʔγϣϯΛ΋ͱʹߏங͢ΔɽKurahashi Β [5] ͸Πϯλʔωοτ্Ͱͷ੡඼ී‫ʹٴ‬༗ҙͳফඅऀҙࢤܾఆϞσϧͱফඅऀωοτϫʔΫΛఏҊ͍ͯ͠ΔɽKurahashi ΒͷϞσϧΛ΋ͱʹҎԼͷΑ͏ͳϞσϧΛઃఆ͢Δɽ

3.1ΤʔδΣϯτফඅऀߦಈΛ࠶‫͢ݱ‬Δ 1000 ਓͷΤʔδΣϯτʹΑΓߏ੒͞ΕΔɽফඅऀ i ͸ফඅऀͷඇ‫࣭ۉ‬ੑΛද‫͢ݱ‬ΔͨΊɼফඅऀλΠϓ ti , બ޷ si Λॳ‫ظ‬ઃఆͰ༩͑ΒΕΔɽফඅऀλΠϓ ti ͸ɼRogers[6]ʮΠϊϕʔλʔʯʮΞʔϦʔΞυϓλʔʯʮΞʔϦʔϚδϣϦςΟʯʮϨΠτϚ経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第8回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #8)

δϣϦςΟʯʮϥΨʔυʯͷ͍ͣΕ͔ʹ֘౰͠ɼ৽঎඼΁ͷग़ࢿଶ౓ͷଟՉΛද‫͢ݱ‬Δɽબ޷ si ͸ফඅऀ‫ݸ‬ผͷબ޷ͱ঎඼ͷಛ௃Λද‫͢ݱ‬Δ΋ͷͰɼ௕͞ n ͷ 2 ‫ݩ‬ූ߸ྻͱͯ͠༗͢Δɽ
ফඅऀ i ͷ಺෦Ϟσϧ=(ti , si )0 ≤ ti ≤ 4, si = si,1 , si,2 , . . . , si,n , ͨͩ͠ si,n ∈ 0, 13.2ҙࢤܾఆϞσϧফඅऀ i ͷग़ࢿ֬཰Λ Pi ͱ͢ΔɽPi ΛҎԼͷΑ͏ʹ‫ن‬ఆ͢ΔɽPixiyi

βi (αxi + (1 − α)yi )!
1 (Ni,invested ≥ ξ)
0 (otherwise)!
Ni,invested
1 ( Ni,neighbor≥ φ)
0 (otherwise)===(1)(2)(3)

ɹ xi , yi ͸ͦΕͧΕ৘ใ઀৮ޮՌɼ‫ن‬ൣޮՌΛද͢ม
਺Ͱ͋ΔɽNi,neighbor , Ni,adopted ͸ɼফඅऀ i ͷपғͷফඅऀ਺ɼपғͷग़ࢿऀ਺Λද͢ɽξ ͸৘ใ઀৮ޮՌͷᮢ஋Ͱ͋Γɼपғͷग़ࢿऀͷ਺͕͜ͷ஋Λ௒͑ͨͱ͖ʹɼଶ౓ม༰͕‫͜ى‬Γ΍͘͢ͳΔɽಉ༷ʹɼφ ͸‫ن‬ൣޮՌͷᮢ஋Ͱ͋Γɼपғͷग़ࢿऀͷׂ߹͕͜ͷ஋Λ௒͑ͨͱ͖ʹɼଶ౓ม༰͕‫͖ى‬΍͘͢ͳΔɽα ͸ফඅऀͷ৘ใ઀৮ޮՌɼ‫ن‬ൣޮՌͷ΢ΤΠτͱͳΔɽβi ͸ফඅऀ i ͷ‫ݸ‬ผબ޷Λද͢ɽ࣍ͷΑ͏ʹࢉग़Λߦ͏ɽ

Biti dH (sG , si )=ti dH (sG , si )n"=sG ⊕ si(4)
(5)

i=1

ɹຊγϛϡϨʔγϣϯͰ͸ɼ1 ࢼߦ͋ͨΓɼ1 ঎඼ G ͕ϥϯμϜʹੜ੒͞Εɼͦͷ঎඼ G ʹରͯ͠ͷී‫ٴ‬աఔΛ‫͢࡯؍‬Δɽ঎඼ G ͱফඅऀ i ͸ͦΕͧΕબ޷Λࣔ͢௕͞ n ͷ 2 ‫ ྻ߸ූݩ‬S Λ༗͢ΔɽG ͕༗͢Δ 2 ‫ූݩ‬߸ྻ sG ʹ sG1 , sG2 , . . . , sGn ͱফඅऀ i ͕༗͢Δ 2 ‫ූݩ‬߸ྻ si ʹ si,1 , si,2 . . . , si,n ͷϋϛϯά‫཭ڑ‬Λࢉग़͠ɼফඅऀλΠϓ ti ͷભҠ֬཰Λ৐ࢉͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽβi ͸0 ≤ ti ≤ 1 ͷ஋ͱͳΔΑ͏ʹͨ͠ɽ

3.3͍ΫϥελੑΛ࣋ͭωοτϫʔΫͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔͍ͬͯΔ [?]ɽͦ͜ͰɼWatts-Strogatz ͷεϞʔϧϫʔϧυϞσϧʢWS ϞσϧʣɾBarabasi-Albert ͷεέʔϧϑϦʔϞσϧʢBA ϞσϧʣͰͦΕͧΕੜ੒ͨ͠ωοτϫʔΫΛ߹੒͢Δ͜ͱͰɼ໨తͱͳΔωοτϫʔΫΛ࡞੒͢Δɽ࣍਺ 4 ͷϨΪϡϥʔωοτϫʔΫ (RG) ͱ BAϞσϧʹΑΔεέʔϧϑϦʔωοτϫʔΫ (BA) ΛͦΕͧΕੜ੒͠ɼͦΕͧΕͷωοτϫʔΫͷରԠ͢ΔϦϯΫͷ࿦ཧ࿨ΛऔΓ̎ͭͷωοτϫʔΫΛॏͶ͋ΘͤͯωοτϫʔΫ ScaleFreeC(SC) Λ༻͍ΔɽωοτϫʔΫͷੑ࣭ (ฏ‫਺࣍ۉ‬ɼฏ‫ۉ‬౸ୡ‫཭ڑ‬ɼΫϥελ܎਺) Λද 1 ʹࣔ͢ɽফඅऀωοτϫʔΫϞσϧফඅऀಉ࢜Λͭͳ͙ωοτϫʔΫΛ࡞੒͢Δɽ͜ͷωοτϫʔΫͷΤοδͷ྆୺ʹҐஔ͢ΔফඅऀΤʔδΣϯτಉ࢜ͷؒͰ૬‫ߦ͕༻࡞ޓ‬ΘΕΔɽΠϯλʔωοτ্ͷਓؒؔ܎ͷωοτϫʔΫ͸εέʔϧϑϦʔੑͱߴද 1: ωοτϫʔΫωοτϫʔΫ
SCRG
SF

3.4

ੜ੒ํ๏

RG+SFWS[2k=4,p=0]BAฏ‫ۉ‬
࣍਺
5.998
4.000
1.998

ฏ‫ۉ‬౸ୡ‫( ཭ڑ‬L)
4.24
125.387.50

Ϋϥελ܎਺ (C)
0.216
0.400
0.000

ϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈফඅऀ͕͋ΔҰఆͷׂ߹ͰϥϯμϜʹબ͹Ε૬‫࡞ޓ‬༻ͱ͸ؔ܎ͳ͘ଶ౓ม༰Λ‫͢͜ى‬ϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈʢeʣΛ‫ن‬ఆ͢Δɽ͜Ε͸ɼϚείϛʹΑΔ޿ࠂ౤ԼͷޮՌͱΈͳ͠ɼ੡඼ී‫ٴ‬ͷաఔΛࣔ͢γϛϡϨʔγϣϯதʹͯɼஅଓతʹߦΘΕΔɽ
ফඅऀ͕೔ʑଟ͘ͷ৘ใʹ઀͢ΔதͰɼ঎඼΍αʔϏεΛೝ஌͢Δ͖͔͚ͬɼ΋͘͠͸ߪങΛଅ͢खஈͱ
ͯ͠ൢചଆ͔Βͷએ఻Ͱ͋ΔɽҰൠతʹ৽঎඼΍αʔϏε͸ɼൃചɾϩʔϯνલ͔ΒϚεϝσΟΞ΍ΠϯλʔωοτϝσΟΞΛ௨ͨ͡ϓϩϞʔγϣϯల։΍޿ࠂ‫׆‬ಈʹΑͬͯଟ͘ͷফඅऀʹೝ஌͞ΕΔɽຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼ͜͏ͨ͠৘ใఏ‫ڙ‬ΛʮϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈʯͱ͍͏͜ͱʹ͢Δɽ࣮ࡍͷϚεΛର৅ʹͨ͠޿ࠂ͸͢΂ͯͷ‫͍͓ʹؒظ‬ͯҰఆͰ͸ͳ͍ɽൃചલ͔Βʮએ఻ʯΛ௨ͯ͡ࢢ৔ʹʮ௠ྻʯ͞ΕΔɽͦͯ͠ൃച௚લ͔Βൃച೔ʹ͔͚ͯʮએ఻ʯ͕ूத͠ɼফඅऀ͕࡞඼৘ใͱ઀͢Δ‫ػ‬ձ͕ଟ͘ͳΔɽͦͷ‫ͱͱؒ࣌ޙ‬΋ʹʮએ఻ʯස౓͕‫ݮ‬ਰ͍ͯ͘͠ɽʮએ఻ʯස౓ͷ্‫ݶ‬Λγʔυ e ʹऔΓࠐΉɽʮએ఻ʯස౓ͷ‫ݮ‬ਰΛϞσϧԽ͢Δʹ͋ͨΓɼ޿ࠂޮՌͷࢦඪͱͯ͠࢖ΘΕΔ޿ࠂ൓Ԡؔ਺Λࢀর͢Δɽ޿ࠂޮՌ͸࣌ؒͱͱ΋ʹҰఆͷׂ߹ λ Ͱ‫ݮ‬গ͠ɼॳ‫ظ‬ͷ޿ࠂޮՌΛ 100% ͱͨ͠৔߹ͦΕ͕ 100 × r% ʹམͪΔ·Ͱͷ‫ ؒظ‬k ͸ɼλk = r ͔Βɼ

k=log rlog λ(6)

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第8回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #8)

Ͱ͋Δɽ͜͜Ͱɼ
ʮ100 ۙ͘ͷௐࠪΛ෼ੳͨ݁͠ՌɼkΛ݄ʹ‫͢ࢉ׵‬Δͱ λ ͷฏ‫ۉ‬஋͸ 0.775 Ͱ͋Δʯͱ͍͏‫݁ڀݚ‬Ռ͕͋Δ [7]. ͭ·Γɼ2.7ϲ݄Ͱ޿ࠂޮՌ͕൒෼ʹͳΔɽΑͬͯɼຊ࣮‫Ͱݧ‬͸ɼ‫ ؒظ‬k Λ೔ʹ‫͠ࢉ׵‬ɼ
λ = 0.977 ͱ͢Δɽͦ͜Ͱɼʮએ఻ʯ։࢝࣌఺Λ 0ɼ঎඼G ͷ k tick ‫͚͓ʹޙ‬Δʮએ఻ʯྔ Q(G, k) Λɼ
(0 ≤ k < 23) nQ1Q(G, k) =(7)nQ2(23 ≤ k < 30) 0.977k−30 (30 ≤ k < 120)ͱͨ͠ɽ͜͜Ͱ͸ɼΩϟϦϒϨʔγϣϯʹΑΓɼnQ1 =0.7, nQ2 = 1.0 ͱ͍ͯ͠ΔɽϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈ͸ൃച։࢝ͷ 30tick લ͔Β࢝ΊɼͦͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈྔ͸ϐʔΫ࣌ͷ 7 ׂͱ͠ɼൃച೔ 7tick લʹ͔͚ͯྔ͕
࠷΋ूத͢ΔΑ͏ʹઃఆͨ͠ɽͦͷ‫ޙ‬ɼ‫ܦ‬ա࣌ؒͱͱ΋ʹҰఆͷׂ߹ 0.977 Ͱ‫ݮ‬ਰ͢Δ (ਤ 1)ɽ

࣮ࡍͷ‫ۀا‬ͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈʹ͓͍ͯ΋ɼΑΓӨ‫ྗڹ‬ͷ͋ΔফඅऀΛ௨ͯ͡ɼফඅΛଅਐ͍ͯ͘͜͠ͱΛૂ͏‫׆‬ಈ͕‫ݟ‬ΒΕΔɽͦΕ͸ҰൠʹʮΠϯϑϧΤϯαʔɾϚʔέςΟϯάʯͱ‫ݺ‬͹ΕΔɽΑΓফඅऀͷҙࢤܾఆʹΑΓଟ͘ͷӨ‫ڹ‬Λ༩͑Δফඅऀʹର͠ɼϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛਤ͍ͬͯ͘ߦಈΛߟ͑Δɽଟ͘ͷফඅऀͷҙࢤܾఆʹӨ‫ڹ‬Λ༩͍͑ͯΔΦϐχΦϯɾϦʔμʔ (OL) ͱඇΦϐχΦϯɾϦʔμʔ(non-OL) Λఆٛ͠ɼී‫ٴ‬ଅਐΛଅ͢ϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛఆٛ͢ΔɽҎԼͷਤ 2 ͸ɼScaleFreeC ͷ֤ϊʔυͷ࣍਺෼෍Ͱ͋Δɽਤ 2: ফඅऀωοτϫʔΫͷ࣍਺෼෍ਤ 1: ʮએ఻ʯྔ Q(G, k) ͷਪҠɹ͜ͷ͏ͪɼ࣍਺͕ 10 Ґ্ͷফඅऀΛ OLɼ࣍਺͕
10 ະຬͷফඅऀΛ non-OL ͱఆٛ͢ΔɽϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈ IPei ΛҎԼͷΑ͏ʹ‫ن‬ఆ͢ΔɽIPei࣮‫ݧ‬4ΠϯλʔωοτΛ௨ͨ͡औҾͰ͋Δ఺ɼग़ࢿͷҙࢤܾఆʹ͸ফඅऀؒͷΫνίϛωοτϫʔΫ͕ॏཁͰ͋ΔΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ϞσϧΛ࡞੒ͨ͠ɽΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͷϓϩδΣΫτΛ੒ޭͤ͞Δ্ͰɼͲͷΑ͏ͳϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛͱΔͱΑΓޮՌతͳී‫͞ͳ͕ٴ‬ΕΔͰ͋Ζ͏͔ɽ‫ج‬ຊϞσϧʹ͓͚Δফඅऀશମ΁ͷϚε޿ࠂʹՃ͑ɼҎԼ 2 ͭͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛ‫ن‬ఆ͠ɼΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ʹΑΓ༗ޮͳϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛ୳Δɽൺֱ‫ݕ‬౼͢ΔϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈ͸ҎԼͷ 3 ͭͰ͋Δɽ

1. ফඅऀશମ΁ͷϚε޿ࠂ (‫ج‬ຊϞσϧ)
2. ΠϯϑϧΤϯαʔɾϚʔέςΟϯά3. ग़ࢿࡁফඅऀपғ΁ͷλʔήοτɾϚʔέςΟϯά

4.1ΠϯϑϧΤϯαʔɾϚʔέςΟϯάফඅऀߦಈ࿦ͷจ຺ʹ͓͍ͯɼଞͷফඅऀʹରͯ͠େ͖ͳӨ‫ྗڹ‬Λ༗͢Δফඅऀͷଘࡏ͕ࢦఠ͞Ε͍ͯΔɽ

=degreewi ∗ne∗ 'w
degreeii(8)ɹ degreei ͸ফඅऀ i ͷ࣍਺ɼn ͸ফඅऀͷ਺Λද͢ɽw ͸΢ΤΠτͰ͋ΓɼOL,non-OL ͰҎԼͷΑ͏ͳ΢ΤΠτΛ༩͑Δɽ

• ߴ࣍਺ফඅऀ΁ͷ΢ΤΠτɿw = 2.0• ௿࣍਺ফඅऀʹର͢Δ΢ΤΠτɿw = -2.0
• શফඅऀʹର͢Δඇબ୒త΢ΤΠτɿw = 0.0ɹ֤ΤʔδΣϯτ΁ͷ૯ྔΛ౳͘͢͠ΔͨΊʹɼ΢ΤΠτΛ͢΂ͯͷফඅऀͷ߹‫Ͱ਺౓ܭ‬ਖ਼‫ن‬ԽΛߦ͏ɽ

4.2λʔήοτɾϚʔέςΟϯά

࣍ʹλʔήοτɾϚʔέςΟϯά‫ܕ‬ͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈΛ‫ن‬ఆ͢ΔɽΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάʹ͓͍ͯɼઌߦ‫ʹڀݚ‬΋ࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹΫνίϛɾωοτϫʔΫͷࢤ޲ੑ͕ΑΓߴ͍ࢢ৔Ͱ͋Δɽग़ࢿऀ͕ੵ‫ۃ‬తʹଞͷফඅऀʹಇ͖͔͚Λߦ͏ৼΔ෣͍ʹରͯ͠ద౰ͳϚʔέςΟϯάઓུ T Pei Λஔ͘ɽT Pei=e ∗ Ni,invested w

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第8回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #8)

Ni,adopted ͸ফඅऀ i ͷपғͷग़ࢿऀ਺Λද͢ɽw ͸΢ΤΠτͰ͋Γɼग़ࢿࡁΤʔδΣϯτʹྡ઀͢ΔΤʔδΣϯτʹ΢ΤΠτΛ༩͑Δɽ• ྡ઀͢Δফඅऀ΁ͷ΢ΤΠτɿw = 2.0• ‫ ͕཭ڑ‬2 Ҏ্ͷফඅऀ΁ͷ΢ΤΠτɿw = -2.0
• શফඅऀʹର͢Δඇબ୒త΢ΤΠτɿw = 0.0ɹ֤ΤʔδΣϯτ΁ͷ૯ྔΛ౳͘͢͠ΔͨΊʹɼ΢ΤΠτΛ͢΂ͯͷফඅऀͷ߹‫Ͱ਺౓ܭ‬ਖ਼‫ن‬ԽΛߦ͏ɽ্‫ه‬ͷ΢ΤΠτ͸ɼਤ 3 ͷΑ͏ͳঢ়ଶΛද͢ɽά͕ɼ্ཱ͕ͪΓͦ͜଎͍΋ͷͷɼ࠷ऴతͳग़ࢿऀ਺Ͱ͸࠷΋ग़ࢿऀ਺͕গͳ͍݁Ռͱͳͬͨɽ

5ߟ࡯Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯά͸ɼҰൠతͳ EC αΠτͰͷ঎඼ͱҧ͍ɼҰఆ‫ʹ಺ؒظ‬ઃఆֹ͕ͨۚ͠ू·Βͳ͍‫ݶ‬Γɼফඅऀʢग़ࢿऀʣ͸ग़ࢿʹԠͨ͡ରՁʢϦϫʔυͱ‫ݺ‬͹ΕΔʣ͕ಘΒΕͳ͍αʔϏεͰ͋ΔɽͦͷͨΊɼফඅऀ͸ࣗ਎͕ग़ࢿͨ͠ஈ֊Ͱཱͪࢭ·ΔͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɼSNS ͰফඅऀࣗΒੵ‫ۃ‬తʹʮϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈʯΛ͍͔ͯ͠ͳͯ͘͸ͳΒͳ͍ɽຊ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷ݁Ռ͸ɼ্‫ه‬ͷഎ‫ܠ‬Λ΋ͱʹղऍΛߦ͑͹ɼҰఆֹۚΛૣ͘ूΊΔɼ͢ͳΘͪҰఆఔ౓ͷγΣΞΛ୹‫֫Ͱؒظ‬ಘ͢Δ͜ͱ͕‫ٻ‬ΊΒΕΔΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάʹ͓͍ͯλʔήοτɾϚʔέςΟϯά‫ܕ‬ͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈ͕༗ޮͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕ࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔɽຊ݁ՌͰ͸ɼग़ࢿऀൺ཰ 40 ˋͷஈ֊ʹɼΠςϨʔγϣϯ 1000ʹର͠ɼ໿ 500tick ΋ૣ͍ஈ֊Ͱୡ੒͕Ͱ͖͍ͯΔɽޮՌΛߦ͏ͱɼEC ‫ܕ‬ɼ‫ج‬ຊ‫ʹܕ‬ൺ΂໿ 500tick ΄Ͳૣ͘
4 ׂͷγΣΞΛ֫ಘ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɽ

ਤ 3: ྡ઀͢Δফඅऀ΁ͷϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈ

4.3ϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈͷൺֱ෼ੳϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈͷൺֱΛߦ͏ɽ࣮‫ݧ‬͸ɼফඅऀΤʔδΣϯτ਺ N = 1000 ɼ‫ܦ‬ա࣌ؒΛࣔ͢ΠςϨʔγϣϯճ਺͸ 1000 ճͱ͠ɼͦΕ·Ͱͷग़ࢿऀ਺ͷਪҠΛ‫ͨ͠࡯؍‬ɽύϥϝʔλ͸ 2 ͷΑ͏ʹઃఆͨ͠ɽ

Ћ
0.5

n15

ද 2: ύϥϝʔλeИП
0.0001 Ұ༷෼෍ [1,4] Ұ༷෼෍ [0.2,0.6]

݁Ռ͸ਤ 4 ʹࣔ͢ɽx ࣠͸‫ܦ‬ա࣌ؒɼy ࣠͸ग़ࢿऀͷ਺Λද͍ͯ͠Δɽ࣍਺ͷߴ͍Ϣʔβʔʹରͯ͠΢ΤΠτΛஔ͘ΠϯϑϧΤϯαʔɾϚʔέςΟϯά͕࠷΋ߴ͍ग़ࢿΛଅ͍ͯ͠ΔɽҰํλʔήοτɾϚʔέςΟϯ6݁࿦ͱࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷ՝୊ຊߘͰ͸ɼΠϯλʔωοτ্ͷফඅऀωοτϫʔΫΛ໛ͨ͠ΤʔδΣϯτϕʔεγϛϡϨʔγϣϯΛ΋ͱʹɼΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ʹ͓͍ͯ༗ޮͳϚʔέςΟϯάઓུΛࣔͨ͠ɽҰఆͷγΣΞΛ୹‫֫Ͱؒظ‬ಘ͢Δඞཁͷ͋ΔΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ʹ͓͍ͯɼӨ‫ྗڹ‬ͷେ͖͍ΠϯϑϧΤϯαʔ΁ͷϓϩϞʔγϣϯΛߦ͏ઓུͰ͸ͳ͘ɼϓϩδΣΫτͱͷબ޷౓͕ۙ͘ɼૣ‫ظ‬ஈ֊Ͱग़ࢿΛߦͬͨফඅऀͷपลωοτϫʔΫ΁ͷϚʔέςΟϯάઓུ͕༗ޮͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕Θ͔ͬͨɽ۩ମతʹ͸ɼग़ࢿࡁফඅऀ΁ͷ঺հΩϟϯϖʔϯͳͲ͕༗ޮͰ͋Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽࠓ‫ޙ‬ɼΫϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάͰͷ࣮ࡍͷग़ࢿऀ΁ͷΞϯέʔτσʔλͳͲʹ‫͍ͯج‬ɼຊ݁Ռͷ࣮σʔλʹΑΔཪ෇͚Λਤͬͯߦ͘༧ఆͰ͋Δɽਤ 4: ϚʔέςΟϯάߦಈͷҧ͍ʹΑΔग़ࢿ‫ۂ‬ઢ

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第8回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #8)

ࢀߟจ‫ݙ‬[1] ໼໺‫ॴڀݚࡁܦ‬: 2017 ೥൛ ࠃ಺Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάࢢ৔ͷࢢ৔ಈ޲, (2017)[2] Ordanini, A.,Miceli, L.,Pizzetti, M., and Parasuraman, A.: Crowd-funding: transforming customers into investors through innovative service platforms, Journal of service management,
Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 443–470 (2011)[3] Ward, C., and Ramachandran, V.: Crowdfunding the next hit: Microfunding online experience
goods, In Workshop on Computational Social
Science and the Wisdom of Crowds at NIPS2010(2010)[4] ‫࡚ٶ‬๜༸, େ஌ਖ਼௚, ถྑ͸Δ͔, দඌ๛: Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯάʹ͓͚ΔϓϩδΣΫτͷࢿۚௐୡՄೳੑͷ෼ੳ, ਓ޻஌ೳֶձશࠃେձ࿦จू, Vol. 27,
pp. 1–4 (2013)[5] Kurahashi, S.,Saito, M.: Informative and Normative Effects Using a Selective Advertisement,SICE Journal of Control, Measurement, and System Integration, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 76–82 (2013)[6] Rogers, E.M.: Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Free Press (2003)[7] ‫ݹ‬઒Ұ࿠: ϚʔέςΟϯάɾαΠΤϯεೖ໳, ༗൹ֳΞϧϚ, pp. 157–160 (2003)