Development of Assessment tools to support climate change
mitigation and adaptation actions of local governments
Yuki Ochi, Manabu Watanabe and Tomoki Ehara
E-Konzal Co. Ltd.
E-Konzal Co. Ltd. is a research and consulting company especially for energy and environmental issues. Our mission is to contribute to asustainable future especially from energy and environmental perspectives. We have developed assessment tools to support local
governments which intend to take action for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

MITIGATION

ADAPTATION

Quantification Tool for Designing Low Carbon
City ScenariosAssessment Method of Regional Vulnerability
Regarding to Impact of Climate Change

Background

Background

It is desirable to reduce GHG emission harmonized with economic growthand quality of life. However it is not easy for cities to take actions for it. A
low carbon society (LCS) scenario is a kind of guides to show how torealize an attractive society with low/no GHG emission in future. We
developed a quantification tool to assess LCS scenario for cities.

Methodology
Future scenarios are assessed by integration of top-down method using
Extended Snapshot tool (ExSS) and bottom-up project-based method.
First, LCS projects are listed and CO2 reduction by each project iscalculated. Concrete projects are easy to imagine. Then the reductions byproject are converted to input parameters of ExSS. ExSS estimates CO2emissions and reductions inclusively without duplication among projects.
Basic idea of projecting CO2 emission in LCS scenario
Project-based
Project-based
COreduction(d_CO2)
Project-basedCO
CO222reduction
reduction(d_CO2)(d_CO2)Estimation flow of ExSS
Driving force

Energy service
intensity

In Japan, many research projects have been conducted and knowledgeregarding to impact of climate change and adaptation measures have been
accumulated. Although those knowledge are created by experts on several
sectors, it is said the problem is that those research projects mainly havefocused on “Hazard” and “Exposure”, and that regional “Vulnerability” have notbeen taken into account sufficiently.
With the basis of existing research, this research firstly structures the conceptof vulnerability, and secondly identifies the relationship between regional
vulnerability and impact of climate change and then develops the assessment
method of regional vulnerability. Finally, using the result of vulnerability
assessment with the data of hazard and exposure, this research evaluates
regional risk on impact of climate change and creates information for decision
making regarding to adaptation.

Conceptof themethod

HazardChange of energy service intensity
𝐸𝑠𝑣𝑔𝑖,𝑠𝑣 = 𝐸𝑠𝑣𝑔_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣 ×Energyconsumption

CO2 emission

Energyefficiency

CO2 emission
factor𝐸𝑒𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 =σ𝑒 𝐶𝑂2_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 − σ𝑝𝑗 𝑑_𝐶𝑂2𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑝𝑗
σ𝑒 𝐶𝑂2_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒σ𝑝𝑗 𝑃𝑠𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗

1
𝑑_𝐶𝑂2𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗
1−
𝐸𝑒_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 𝐸𝑆𝑉𝐷_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣 × 𝑃𝑠𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗 × 𝑇𝑡𝑙𝐸𝐹_𝐵𝑖,𝑒Change of CO2 emission factor
𝐷𝑃𝐺𝑖,𝑒 =Valuable Information for decision making

σ𝑝𝑗 𝑃𝑒𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗 × 𝑃𝑠𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗

𝑃𝑒𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗 =Vulnerability

リスク

Change of energy efficiency

Energy service
demandExposure

σ𝑝𝑗 𝑑_𝐶𝑂2𝑖,𝑒,𝑝𝑗
𝑇𝑡𝑙𝐸𝐹_𝐵𝑖,"𝑒𝑙𝑒"𝐸𝑠𝑣𝑔𝑖,𝑠𝑣 : Energy service intensity

𝐸𝑠𝑣𝑔_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣 : Energy service intensity in BaU

𝐶𝑂2_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 : CO2 emission in BaU

𝑑_𝐶𝑂2𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑝𝑗 : Project-based CO2 reduction

𝐸𝑒𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 : Energy efficiency by service

𝐸𝑒_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒 : Energy efficiency by service in BaU

𝑃𝑒𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗 : Energy efficiency by project𝑃𝑠𝑖,𝑠𝑣,𝑒,𝑝𝑗 : Share of project in energy service

Methodology
Toward vulnerability assessment, it is needed to identify indicators of regionalvulnerability. In this research we have two approach. Firstly, this research has
conducted literature research about vulnerability in Japan and all over theworld broadly and collected the indicators suggested by those research andmore than 200 indicators have been assembled. Secondly, this research haveselected and allocated indicators collected by approach 1 with specific logic
mentioned later.
影響分野

大分類

大項目

データ

中項目

脆弱性指標

小項目

感受性

適応能力

単位

利用可能性
水質のモニタリング状況

𝐸𝑆𝑉𝐷_𝐵𝑖,𝑠𝑣 : Energy service demand in BaU

指標の参考文献

優先度

脆弱性評価レベル

備考

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

工場・事業場排水や生活排水の対・気候変動の影響への適応計画策による流入負荷量の低減対策
貯水池における選択取水設備・曝

湖沼・ダム湖気循環設備等の水質保全対策の徹

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

底度合い

水環境

𝑇𝑡𝑙𝐸𝐹_𝐵𝑖,𝑒 : CO2 emission factor including dispersed power generation

水環境

下水道の高度処理配備状況

水環境・水資源・気候変動の影響への適応計画

水源の濁度上昇適応力

河川〇・気候変動の影響への適応計画

沿岸域及び閉鎖性海域
ダムや貯水池による水資源管理能

水供給（地表水）

水資源

水供給（地下水）25,00022,409CO2 emission (ktCO2eq)

20,00016,00915,00010,0005,000

5,28202015
Industry
Residential
Freight transport

2030BaU 2030CM
Commercial
Passenger transportThis LCS study for Semarang is done by Municipality of Semarang, Diponegoro University, Institute for Global
Environmental Strategies (IGES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES), Mizuho Information andResearch Institute, Inc. and E-Konzal Co. Ltd.
This research is supported by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan and the Ministry of Research, Technology andHigher Education of the Republic of Indonesia.

△％

地下水利用の把握状況

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況

・気候変動の影響への適応計画

水供給における地下水の割合
雨水・再生水の利用度合〇％

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況％

・平成27年版

日本の水資源の現況

渇水対策の情報提供・普及啓発の

水需要・気候変動の影響への適応計画

度合い
浸水時の対策徹底度合い（浸水時・気候変動の影響への適応計画

ガイドラインの整備等）

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）

老齢人口比率〇％〇

昼間人口比率〇％〇屋外作業人口比率〇％△

昼間スポーツ従事者人口比率〇％△

・熱中症環境保健マニュアル〇△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇△・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

been collected死亡リスク

Emission
ActionProject
Sectorreduction(ktCO2eq)
1 Green1-01 Energy saving support scheme like ESCO for industries Industry
964.6
Industry
1-02 Installation high energy efficiency facilities
Industry346.6
1-03 Regional energy supply system
Industry489.7
1-04 Improvement of kiln and furnace technology
Industry692.3
1-05 Fuel shift of furnaces and boilers to natural gas
Industry
58.8
Total
2,552.0
2 Smart2-01 Installation of insulated glasses to buildings
Commercial
84.1
Building
2-02 Installation of insulated glasses to houses
Residential
12.2
2-03 Introduction of incentive to low energy buildings
Commercial
15.9
2-04 Introduction of insulating material to houses
Residential
7.0
2-05 Energy efficiency technology applied to buildings
Commercial
35.8
2-06 Shift to natural gas in buildings
Commercial
17.1
2-07 Introduction of solar water heater to buildings
Commercial
52.3
2-08 Introduction of solar water heater to households
Residential
23.9
Total
248.4
3 Smart3-01 Energy saving support scheme like ESCO for buildings Commercial
150.6
Device3-02 High efficiency lighting in commercial buildings
Commercial
66.5
3-03 High efficiency lighting in households
Residential
22.8
3-04 High efficiency air conditioners in commercial buildings Commercial
137.3
3-05 High efficiency air conditioners in households
Residential
33.7
3-06 Promotion of energy-efficient appliances
Residential
23.1
Total
434.1
4 Sustainable 4-01 Promotion of eco-driving with digital tachographs
Transport
7.2
Transport 4-02 Wide-range traffic control
Transport
28.8
4-03 Expansion of frequencies and routes of bus and BRT
Transport
96.2
4-04 Development of public transportation (railway/MRT)Transport
98.6
4-05 Shift to CNG bus
Transport
6.1
4-06 Introduction of electric motorbikes
Transport
61.5
4-07 Promotion of energy-efficient passenger cars
Transport
452.3
4-08 Promotion of energy-efficient motorbikes
Transport
86.7
4-09 Promotion of energy-efficient trucks
Transport
112.8
Total
950.1
5 Green5-01 Introduction of PV to commercial buildings
Commercial
24.3
Energy5-02 Introduction of PV to households
Residential
9.7
5-03 Introduction of small-scale hydropower generation
Commercial
1.7
Total
35.7
Improvement of CO2 emission factor of electricity
2,179.1
Total
6,399.5△More than 200 indicators have
水資源

Case study in Semarang, Indonesia

Estimated CO2 emission and reduction by project in Semarang〇力不安定取水の割合

We applied this methodology to Semarang city in Indonesia. CO2emission in two scenarios, which are Business as Usual (BaU) andCountermeasure (CM) scenario, were estimated. In addition, CO2 emission
reduction by project in CM scenario are identified.

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

水質のモニタリング状況

熱波警報システムの運用状況

天気予報時の注意喚起の普及度合
い・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル

ハイリスクグループへの対策度合
い（高齢者かつエアコンを設置していない世帯等）
熱中症シェルターの配置割合

健康暑熱

暑熱

熱中症

緑地・街路樹の面積比率

△

△

〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

排熱を減らす省エネビルの比率

△

△

△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

老齢人口比率〇％〇

昼間人口比率〇％〇屋外作業人口比率〇％△

昼間スポーツ従事者人口比率〇％

熱波警報システムの運用状況
天気予報時の注意喚起の普及度合
い・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル
・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-4）
・熱中症環境保健マニュアル△

・熱中症環境保健マニュアル〇△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇△・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇

ハイリスクグループへの対策度合
い（高齢者かつエアコンを設置し〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

〇〇・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

緑地・街路樹の面積比率

△

△

〇

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）

排熱を減らす省エネビルの比率△△△

・地球温暖化「日本への影響」－最新の科学的知見ー（S-８）ていない世帯等）
熱中症シェルターの配置割合

Current State and Direction
As the logic of selecting
and allocating mentioned,
thisresearch
employs
Impact Chain(giz(2014): The
Vulnerability Sourcebook).
Firstly with Impact Chain,
we identifies the direct
impact of climate change ineach sector as the image of
Impact chain. Secondly wegets the exposures which
would suffer from those
impact,thirdly
decides
indicatorsofreginalvulnerability as the charts ofvulnerability indicators.
As the next step, we will
identify the indicators inother sectors, for example
disaster and water resource,
and collect regarding data,then try to order thepriorities of indicators withsome measure including
expert judge.

Climate Change

Direct Impact

Temperature

Reduction onyield andquality

RiceProductImpact on
Rice Product

Precipitation
Sea Level

Degradation
on healthcondition offarmers

Extreme
Weather
Event

Shortage ofagricultural
water

EconomicLosson Rice
Product＜Impact Chain (Rice Product)＞
ImpactDirect
ImpactExposure

Vulnerability
Sensitivity

Reduction
on yield andquality

Vulnerability Indicators
Parcentage of area which cropped by the rice of hightemperature-tolerant
Condition of recognision by rice farmers on impact of climate

Rice
itselfchange and adaptation measures
Adaptive
Capasity

Condition of development about the rice with high-temperaturetolerant

Priority(Example)
100
ー50

Condition of implementation of adaptation measures

50

Percentage of aged person in rice farmers

100

Mutual condition of farmers

50

Sensitivity

Economic Degradation
losson health

Farmers ofon ricecondition ofrice

product

farmers

Condition of recognition on countermeasures on heat-related
Adaptiveillness for rice farmers

Capasity

Condition of implementation of adaptation measures on heatrelated illness for rice farmers

Sensitivity

Percentage of water for rice product on all agricultural water
Condition of recognision by rice farmers on impact of climate

Shortage ofAgricultural

agricultural

water ofAdaptive

Condition of development about efficient management method

water

rice

Capasityof agricultural waterchange and adaptation measures

Condition of implementation of adaptation measures on efficientmanagement method of agricultural waterー5050ー5050＜ Vulnerability Indicators (Rice Product)＞This research is being supported by the Environment Research andTechnology Development Fund of Environmental Restoration andConservation Agency and the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.