BIG IDEAS 2023
January 31, 2023

ARK Investment Management LLC

www.ark-invest.com

TECHNOLOGICALCONVERGENCEARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

DIGITAL
CONSUMERSDIGITAL
WALLETSPUBLICBLOCKCHAINSBITCOIN

SMART CONTRACTNETWORKSPRECISION
THERAPIES

MOLECULARDIAGNOSTICSELECTRICVEHICLESAUTONOMOUS
RIDE-HAILAUTONOMOUSLOGISTICS

ROBOTICS AND
3D PRINTINGORBITALAEROSPACE

For Informational Purposes Only
ARK Investment Management LLC. This is not a recommendation in relation to any named particular securities/cryptocurrencies and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities/cryptocurrencies are forillustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that the Adviser will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as any investment presented. The reader should not assume that an investment identified was or will be
profitable. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE, FUTURE RETURNS ARE NOT GUARANTEED.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DISCLOSURE

2

Risks of Investing in Innovation
Please note: Companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may
not in fact do so. ARK aims to educate investors and seeks to size the potential investment opportunity, noting that risks and uncertainties may impact our projections andresearch models. Investors should use the content presented for informational purposes only, and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, andrisks related to certain innovation areas.
Please read risk disclosure carefully.

RISK OF INVESTING IN INNOVATIONRAPID PACE OF CHANGEEXPOSURE ACROSS SECTORS AND MARKET CAPREGULATORY HURDLESDISRUPTIVEINNOVATIONPOLITICAL OR LEGAL PRESSURE

UNCERTAINTY AND UNKNOWNSàAim for a cross-sector understanding of technology
and combine top-down and bottom-up research.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPEà

Aim to understand the regulatory, market, sector,
and company risks. (See Disclosure Page)

BIG IDEAS 2023: INTRODUCTION

Big Ideas 2023
Innovation Is Taking Off
ARK aims to deliver long-term capital appreciation by investing in the leaders,enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation. We believe every investor
should have a strategic allocation to innovation, not only to access potential
exponential growth opportunities typically absent from broad-based indices, butalso to hedge against the increasing risk that incumbents will be disrupted.
To enlighten investors on the long-term impact of innovation, we began publishing
Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight the technologicalbreakthroughs evolving today and creating the potential for super-exponential
growth tomorrow.
We believe that innovation is taking off now, corroborating our original researchand boosting our confidence that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change.
We hope you enjoy Big Ideas 2023!

3

BIG IDEAS 2023: TABLE OF CONTENTS

4

Technological Convergence05

Precision Therapies

75

Artificial Intelligence

20

Molecular Cancer Diagnostics

86

Digital Consumers

30

Electric Vehicles

96

Digital Wallets

41

Autonomous Ride-Hail

106

Public Blockchains

48

Autonomous Logistics

115

Bitcoin55

Robotics and 3D Printing

126

Smart Contract Networks

66

Orbital Aerospace

136

BIG IDEAS 2023

5

Technological
Convergence
Creating The Potential For Super-Exponential Growth
According to ARK's research, five innovation platforms are converging
to create unprecedented growth trajectories.
Artificial Intelligence is the most important catalyst, its velocity
cascading through all other technologies.
The market value of disruptive innovation platforms could scale 40%
at an annual rate during this business cycle, from $13 trillion today to$200 trillion by 2030.
In 2030, the market value associated with disruptive innovation could
account for the majority of the global equity market capitalization.
Research by Brett Winton, Chief Futurist & ARK Venture Investment Committee Member
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. As of year end 2022. Numbers are rounded. ARK estimates that $13.4 trillion of market value is attributable to the disruptive technologies it covers today. By 2030 ARK estimates thatmarket value attributable to these technologies will exceed $206 trillion. Market value includes public companies, private companies, cryptocurrencies and smart contract protocols. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

6

Public Blockchains

Five Converging
Innovation
Platforms
Define This
Technological Era

Upon large-scale adoption, all money and contracts will migrate onto
Public Blockchains that enable and verify digital scarcity and proof ofownership. The financial ecosystem is likely to reconfigure toaccommodate the rise of Cryptocurrencies and Smart Contracts.
These technologies increase transparency, reduce the influence ofcapital and regulatory controls, and collapse contract execution
costs. In such a world, Digital Wallets will become increasingly
necessary as more assets become money-like, and corporations andconsumers adapt to the new financial infrastructure. Corporate
structures themselves may be called into question.

Artificial Intelligence

Computational systems and software that evolve with data can solve
intractable problems, automate knowledge work, and acceleratetechnology’s integration into every economic sector. The adoption of
Neural Networks should prove more momentous than the
introduction of the internet and create 10s of trillion dollars of value.
At scale these systems will require unprecedented computational
resources, and AI-specific compute hardware should dominate the
Next Gen Cloud datacenters that train and operate AI models. The
potential for end-users is clear: a constellation of AI-driven
Intelligent Devices that pervade people's lives, changing the way thatthey spend, work, and play. The adoption of artificial intelligenceshould transform every sector, impact every business, and catalyze
every innovation platform.

Energy Storage

Node size: Log prospective 2030 Market Value

Multiomic
Sequencing

Declining costs of Advanced Battery Technology should cause an
explosion in form factors, enabling Autonomous Mobility systems thatcollapse the cost of getting people and things from place toplace. Electric drivetrain cost declines should unlock micro-mobility andaerial systems, including flying taxis, enabling business models thattransform the landscape of cities. Autonomy should reduce the cost oftaxi, delivery, and surveillance by an order of magnitude, enabling
frictionless transport that will increase the velocity of e-commerce andmake individual car ownership the exception rather than the rule. These
innovations combined with large-scale stationary batteries should cause
a transformation in energy, substituting electricity for liquid fuel andpushing generation infrastructure towards the edge of the network.

The cost to gather, sequence, and understanddigital biological data is falling precipitously.
Multiomic Technologies provide researchscientists, therapeutic organizations and healthplatforms with unprecedented access to DNA,
RNA, protein, and digital health data. Cancer
care should transform with pan-cancer blood
tests. Multiomic data should feed into novel
Precision Therapies using emerging gene editing
techniques that target and cure rare diseases
and chronic conditions. Multiomics
should unlock entirely new Programmable
Biology capabilities, including the design andsynthesis of novel biological constructs withapplications across industries, particularly
agriculture and food production.

Robotics

Catalyzed by artificial intelligence, Adaptive Robots canoperate alongside humans and navigate legacy
infrastructure, changing the way products are made andsold. 3D Printing should contribute to the digitization of
manufacturing, increasing not only the performance andprecision of end-use parts but also the resilience of
supply chains. Meanwhile, the world’s fastest robots,
Reusable Rockets, should continue to reduce the cost oflaunching satellite constellations and enable
uninterruptible connectivity. A nascent innovation
platform, robotics could collapse the cost of distancewith hypersonic travel, the cost of manufacturing
complexity with 3D printers, and the cost of production
with AI-guided robots.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

7

Convergence
The converging innovation platforms involve 14 investable technologies undergoingsteep cost declines, impacting multiple sectors, and serving as launching pads formore innovation.
ARK’s Convergence Scoring Framework And Network Graph:• Technology scores are a function of their potential to generate super-exponential
growth as they catalyze other technologies.
• The thickest lines correspond to expectations for an order of magnitude increasein another technology’s potential.
• Edges are directional. Neural networks should catalyze autonomous mobility(thick purple line), for example, and the data generated by autonomous mobility
systems should improve neural network capability (thin teal line).
• Node size corresponds to estimate of 2030 enterprise value attributable to thetechnology on a log scale.
• The innovation platform taxonomy emerges organically from this network graph.
Node size: Log prospective 2030 Market Capitalization
Edge size:: Estimated catalyzing impact
Edge color coded to the catalyzing technology

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Information provided on this slide is based on ARK’s research and views and subject to change. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes
only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

8

Neural Networks Are The Most Important Catalyst
Relative Importance as a Catalyst
Adaptive Robotics

0.3

3D Printing

0.3

Precision Therapies

0.5

Programmable Biology

0.5

Reusable Rockets

0.6

Smart contracts

0.6

Next Gen Cloud

0.9

Intelligent Devices

1.1

Cryptocurrencies

1.2

Multiomic Technologies

1.2

Autonomous Mobility

1.3

Advanced Battery Systems

1.6

Digital Wallets

2.0

Neural Networks

4.3

Represents an order of magnitude increase in the commercial potential of another technology.
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. ARK’s convergence scoring framework measures the scale of impact that advances in one technology are likely to have on the potential market value of another. ”Relative importance as acatalyst” measures the sum of convergence scores for each technology. Scoring is tuned such that a score of 1 corresponds to the potential to increase another technology’s market value by an order of magnitude. Scores are subject to
ARK’s views and research and are subject to change. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

9

Autonomous Mobility Epitomizes The Convergence Among Technologies
Relative Sensitivity to Other Catalysts
Autonomous Mobility

2.2

Smart contracts

2.0Intelligent Devices

1.7

Adaptive Robotics

1.6

Precision Therapies

1.5

Next Gen Cloud

1.5

Neural Networks

1.2

Cryptocurrencies

1.2

Multiomic Technologies

0.8

3D Printing

0.8

Digital Wallets

0.7

Programmable Biology

0.6

Advanced Battery Systems

0.5

Reusable Rockets

0.2
Log of potential increase in addressable market based on othertechnological advances.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. ARK’s convergence scoring framework measures the scale of impact that advances in one technology are likely to have on the potential market value of another. ”Relative sensitivity toother catalysts” measures the inbound sum of convergence scores for each technology. Scoring is tuned such that a score of 1 corresponds to an order of magnitude potential increase in the technology’s market value. Scores are subject
to ARK’s views and research and are subject to change. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or
hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

10

AI Chatbots Will "Drive" Robotaxis
Tesla applies transformer neural networks—introduced as a solution for

The pace of AI innovation has increased our confidence in the commercial

language translation—to help its vehicles understand complicatedviability of robotaxis and other autonomous mobility systems.

intersections and drivable pathways.
Neural networks are beginning to exceed human performance in multiple
areas. Autonomous transportation should prove no different. Performance
improvements in neural networks should enable scalable robotaxi systems
that are safer than humans in almost all situations.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Tesla 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

11

Deep Neural Networks Enable More Accurate Long-Read DNA Sequencing
Neural Networks Lower Long-Read
DNA Sequencing Error Rates by 59%

In 2021, Google researchers applied transformers, typically used forstate of the art language models, to long-read genomic data from
PacBio’s Sequel II machine.

30

Base Pair Errors Per Read

25

20

15

10

Not only did they reduce errors and improve quality-adjusted yields,
but they also lowered long-read genome sequencing costs.

5

In 2023, PacBio will build AI-specific compute hardware into its long-

0State of the Art
Before AI

2021 AI2022 AI
Error Rate Reduction Error Rate Reduction

Current
State of the Art

read sequencer, delivering the first high-quality, whole long-readgenome for less than $1,000.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Baid, G. et al. 2022; Carroll, A. 2022; Lopez, L. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment
advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

12

Robots Learn From Experience Thanks To Advances In AI Language Models
General Task Completion Success Rate

Already useful for language generation, the advanced transformer AI
architecture now is controlling robots, instructing and enabling them toRobot without AI language model architecture (2021)

encode complex actions into discrete tasks.

Robot with AI language model architecture (2022)

Transformer architecture also helps robots generalize from examples
97%

100%

and perform never-seen tasks.

90%
80%

76%

72%

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
19%

20%
10%
0%
Previously Seen Tasks

New Tasks

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Gopalakrishnan, K. et al. 2022; Brohan, A. et al. 2022; Jang, E. et al. 2022. Compares performance of RT-1, the robotics transformer architecture to BC-Z, based on a recurrent neural net
architecture. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or
cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

13

Battery Advances Will Be Critical To Augmented Reality
iPhone Battery Evolution
Battery Capacity

Energy density

16

0.15

14

0.16
0.14

12.4
0.12
0.10

10

0.1

8

0.08
6.55

6
4

0.06

0.05

4.12

0.04

2

0.02

0

0
2008

2015

2022

2008

2015

2022

Wh / iPhone Cubic cm

Watt Hours (Wh)12

Improvements in battery capacity and energy
density will be critical to advances in
intelligent devices.
To preserve battery life, the first four versionsof Apple’s smartwatch displays powered off
unless wearers raised their wrists.
Similarly, smart glasses will be powerconstrained until advances in battery energy
density increase their utility.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Apple, data as of 01/27/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

14

Reusable Rockets Deliver Satellite Power To Traditional Smartphones
Satellite Price Premium to Terrestrial Cellular
HandsetPrice per minute/text

like Iridium and Starlink have

45

Multiple of Terrestrial Cellular Pricemade worldwide connectivity a

40x

40

reality by taking advantage of thecost declines in re-usable rockets.

35
30

The cost of satellite bandwidth
has fallen 7,500-fold over 19 years,

25

enabling the launch of a record

20
15

Satellite connectivity providers

number of communication
15x

satellites in 2022.

10Intelligent devices rely on

5connectivity. Inexpensive
1x

1x

0
Original Iridium

T-Mobile+SpaceX

1998

2023

connectivity is key to universal
access.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Gregson, R. 1999; Glasner, J. 1999; Hasenstab, B. 1998. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment
advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

15

Cryptocurrency Mining Can Support Larger Solar-Battery Installations
Battery Size for a Solar Installation Providing Equivalent
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

tool: modular, moveable, and flexible, they

1,800

pair well with intermittent energy resources

1,600
Solar-Battery System Size (kWh)Bitcoin mining machines are a useful energy

like wind and solar installations.

1,400

Incorporating bitcoin mining into solar

Circle sized proportional
to the amount of
bitcoin mining
power included

1,200
1,000

storage systems can enhance the scaling andreliability of grids without increasing thelevelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A bitcoin

800

miner can ”buy” any excess energy.

600
400

According to ARK’s research, by increasing

No bitcoin mining

the size of its battery 4.6x and incorporating200

a bitcoin miner, a solar system could provide
99%+ of end-user demand without

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

sacrificing profitability.

Percent of End-user Electricity Demand Met by System
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

16

Discontinuous Changes In Macroeconomic Growth Are The Norm, Thanks to Technology
Global Real GDP* Growth

Projections Consistent with Technological History
Compared to Consensus forecast

8.5%

10.00%

Forecast Consistent withTechnological History

Compound Annual Growth Rate3%
2.6%
Historical Data
0.6%

1.00%

0.3%
Consensus
Forecast

2.6%

0.14%
0.10%

0.037%

2021*$100 trillion$12,500 per capita
3.7% growth2030$170 trillion$20,000 per capita
6.1% growth2030$130 trillion$15,000 per capita
3.0% growth2040$470 trillion$51,000 per capita
10.7% growth2040$160 trillion$18,000 per capita
2.1% growth

0.01%
100,000BC

1

1000

1500

1900

2021

2040

Log Years Until 2050***Gross Domestic Product. **X-axis scaled by log years until 2050. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Bolt, J. et al. 2022; The World Bank Group, data as of 01/27/23; Nalley, S. et al. 2021; DeLong, B. 1998. Numbers are rounded.
Consensus forecast is the reference economic case for the EIA’s International Energy Outlook. X-axis of log years until 2050 is tuned to the best fit against the historical data. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

17

Disruptive Innovations Complicate The Meaning Of Economic Statistics
Consumers paying up for an electric vehicle are lowering future costs for

Cutting the cord from a cable package and shifting to streaming services

better performing vehicles at a lower total cost of ownership (TCO). An EV

could hurt economic measures but boost the value of entertainment.

purchase today leads to lower “output” in the future.

Monthly Cost for Video Entertainment

Tesla Model 3 Versus Toyota Camry
Cost Differential
1.6x

$120

1.5x
$100

1.4x
1.2x

$80

1.0x

.9x

.8x

Amazon Prime

$60

.7x

.6x

Apple TV
HBO Max$40

Netflix

.4x
$20

.2x
.0x

ESPN+
Disney+VehicleVehiclePurchasepurchase

AnnualCost
Operating
Cost
Annualto Operate$5 Year TCO

Hulu

Standard
CableTV
TVpackage
PackageStandard cable

Premium
Package
PremiumStreaming
streaming package

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Edmunds.com, Inc., data as of 01/27/23; Afonso, C. 2022. Cost of ownership as measured over 5 years at 15,000 miles per year. Assumes IRA tax credit. Assumes same depreciation rate forModel 3 versus Camry. Assumes EV maintenance costs at 45% of internal combustion. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

18

Today’s Innovation Platforms Could Lift Consensus GDP* Growth Toward GDP
Growth Suggested By Technological History
According to ARK’s research, breakthroughs associated with Energy Storage and Robotics alone could add 30% to real GDP by 2030, and AI could dwarf both theircontributions.
140

Real GDP in 2030
$200
3

$180
16

$160
26

$140
Trillions

1

$120
$100
170

$80
$60

130

$40
$20

GDP impact of these technologies is less likely to be captured
by traditional economic production statistics. In particular,
though AI’s impact on knowledge worker productivity should
result in substantial improvements in software, administration,and management of complex systems, it is unclear how those
improvements will be reflected in traditional measures ofmacroeconomic growth.

$0Consensus GDP 2030

Energy Storage

Robotics

Projection ConsistentMultiomics Sequencing

Public BlockchainAI

ARK Forecast

ARK Forecastwith Technological

ARK Forecast

ARK Forecast

ARK Forecast

History*Gross Domestic Product. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Nalley, S. et al. 2022. Energy storage forecast is primarily driven by expectations for robotaxi service penetration. Robotics forecast assumes 1 robot per
manufacturing employee delivering a 15% productivity uplift and imbeds the indirect benefit of household robots reducing housework burdens for consumers by 16%. Multiomics sequencing GDP impact corresponds to a 2% increase inworking populations above expectations due to health advances. Public blockchain forecast assumes that the rent charged by intermediaries falls 2/3rds for public blockchain assets as compared to traditional financial assets, and that
the GDP impact of digital wallet penetration in emerging markets continues to yield incremental GDP growth. AI GDP forecast assumes that AI software increases knowledge-worker productivity by 4.5x by 2030. Forecasts are inherently
limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicativeof future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

19

Disruptive Innovation Platforms Could Constitute The Majority Of The Global Equity
Market Value By 2030
Total Equity Market Value
$350

$300

Trillions

$250

$200

Innovation Platform

CAGR

Public Blockchains

50%

Multiomics Sequencing

27%

Robotics*

68%

Energy Storage

56%

AI

36%

•

Public Blockchains could scale ~15-fold to ~$200 trillion in
equity value over the course of this business cycle.

•
Innovation
Platforms$206 trillion
41% CAGR$150

Even if non-innovation exposures to the market continue toaccrue value, disruptive innovation is likely to dominate
equity market values by 2030.

•

Including cryptoassets, disruptive innovation exposures
could constitute roughly 68% of risk asset value by 2030.

$100

$50

AI, Energy Storage, Robotics, Multiomics Sequencing, and

13
84

97

Other
$96 trillion
2% CAGR$02022

2030 Forecast*CAGR: Robotics including home robots as opposed to industrial robots. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Equity market value includes the value of public blockchain protocols. Forecasts are inherently limited andcannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future
results. In this specific estimation, 2022 and 2030 total equity market values and CAGRs for Public Blockchains are inclusive of three technology platforms: Cryptocurrencies, Smart Contracts, and Digital Wallets.

BIG IDEAS 2023

20

Artificial Intelligence
Creating The Assembly Line For Knowledge Workers
Generative AI made waves this year, from DALL-E-2 to ChatGPT. These tools are
improving the productivity of knowledge workers—~2x in the case of AI coding
assistants.
AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train alarge language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in2020 to $450,000 in 2022. We expect cost declines to continue at a 70% rate
through 2030.
AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by2030. At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200
trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries.

Research by William Summerlin, Co-Lead, ARK Venture & Analyst
Frank Downing, Director of Research, Next Generation Internet

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

21

2022 Was The Year Of Generative AI
Prompted by a short text, generative AI models can produce images, code, text, audio, and video. In less than one year, dozens of generative AI projects created models that
progressed from grainy images to high-quality 3D models and videos.

DALL-E 2: "An astronaut riding a horse”

Meta Make-A-Video

Open-Source Stable Diffusion 2.0:

Publicly available September 2022

Announced September 2022

Released November 2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Bleeding Edge, data as of 01/23/23; Stability 2023; Singer, U. et al. 2022; OpenAI, data as of 01/23/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes
only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

22

AI Is Increasing The Productivity Of Knowledge Workers
Coding Assistants

Generative Image Models

Software engineers completed a coding task in less than half the time with AI

According to our research, AI can create a graphic design for just $0.08** incoding assistant GitHub Copilot.

minutes — a di minimis cost compared to $150 for human labor.

Time to Complete Coding Tasks: 2022*
180
160

Human
Cost

$150

Time

5 Hours

140-55%

Minutes

120

Generative AI

100
80
60

Cost

$0.08

Time

< 1 Minute

40
20
0
Human

Human + AI

*Based on data from GitHub. **Generative AI models translated “ a picture of an astronaut on Mars” into multiple images in just a few seconds. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Kalliamvakou, E. 2022. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of
future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

23

AI Training Costs Continue To Plummet
MosaicML recently released AI training tools that can train language models to GPT-3 level performance for just $450,000, roughly one-tenth the $4.6 million just two years
ago. AI training costs are dropping ~70% per year, even faster than the 60% estimate based on research presented in ARK’s Big Ideas 2022.

Cost To Train GPT-3 Level Performance$5,000,000$4,600,000$4,500,000$4,000,000$3,500,000$3,000,000
70% Annualized Cost Decline$2,500,000$2,000,000$1,500,000$1,000,000$740,000$450,000$500,000

$30

$0
2020

2022 (ARK(ARK Forecast)
forecast)

2022 (actual)(Actual)2030 (ARK Forecast)

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Venigalla, A. et al. 2022; Li, C. 2020. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

24

AI Hardware And Software Costs Should Continue To Decline 70% At An Annual Rate
According to Wright’s Law, AI-relative compute unit (RCU) production costs and software costs should decline 57% and 47% at annual rates, respectively. In other words, theconvergence of hardware and software could drive AI training costs down by 70% at an annual rate through 2030.

AI Training Hardware Cost
Actual $ / RCU

AI Software Training Cost Using Neural Networks

Predicted/ RCU
Prediced$ /$RCU

Estimated Compute

Actual Compute

1.000$100,000.00$10,000.00

0.100$100.00

TFS-Days*$ / RCU$1,000.00$10.00

0.010

0.001

$1.00
0.000

$0.10
$0.01
0

1

100

10,000

Cumulative RCUs Produced(Millions)

1,000,000

100,000,000

0.000
0

1

100

10,0001,000,000

Cumulative RCUs Produced(Millions)*TFS-Days is a measure of compute required to train a model. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

25

AI Is Creating Explosive Demand For
Training Data

GPT-3 Capability Today vs. Projected Capability In 2030
1,000,000

The cost to train the state-of-the-art GPT-3 in 2020 was $4.6 million.
Based on our modeling, the cost of training an AI model with 57x more

0.13x Cost $0.6M

parameters and 720x more tokens than GPT-3 would drop from $17
100,000

billion today to $600,000 by 2030.

5.6 billion tokens. Training a model with 162 trillion words, or 216 trillion
tokens, should be possible in 2030. In a world of low-cost compute, data
will become the primary constraint.

Tokens (Billions)

For perspective, Wikipedia’s 4.2 billion words today represent roughly
10,000720x Tokens

1,000

57x Parameters
$4.6M
100
100

1,000

10,000Parameters (Billions)

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023.. Wikipedia 2023; Hoffmann, J. et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

26

Proprietary Data Could Create Moats
High-quality domain-specific AI training data could result in winner-takes-most outcomes across vertical applications.

Proprietary
Data
Generation

More
Customers

DomainAutonomous
Driving

SoftwareDevelopment

Dialogue

Data Metric

Recorded realworld driving miles

Lines of code

Loggedconversations

Feedback Loop

Autonomous
disengagements

Rejected code

Rephrased
questionsCompany
ExampleTesla

ReplitTwilioBetter AI
models

BetterProducts

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

27

AI Could Lead To A 10-Fold Increase In Coding Productivity
Based on a 70% annualized drop in training costs and feedback loops, AI coding assistants like Copilot could increase the output of software engineers ~10-fold by 2030.

Output of Human + AI: Coding Tasks

Github Copilot Example

Human

AI

10.0x

Index 1.0 = Capability In 2020

Human Input

9.0x
8.0x
7.0x
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
3.0x
2.0x
1.0x
.0x
2020

2022

2030

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. GitHub 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

28

Cost Declines Should Enable Mass Adoption Of Sophisticated AI Chatbots
Released by OpenAI in November 2022, ChatGPT uses large-language models to generate text in response to user prompts. Within five days of launch, the number of users
reached 1 million. While the inference costs to run the model at scale are ~$.01 per query, Wright’s Law suggests that by 2030 ChatGPT-style applications will be deployableat the scale of Google Search, processing 8.5 billion searches per day.

ChatGPT Example

Cost Per Billion Inferences$10,000,000$10,000,000$1,000,000$100,000$10,000$650$1,000
$100
$10
2022

2030

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Goldstein, T. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation tobuy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

29

AI Should Increase Knowledge Worker Productivity DramaticallyAccording to ARK's research, AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030. At 100% adoption, AI spend of ~$41 trillion could increase
labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in knowledge worker salaries and rivaling current projections of global GDP* in 2030. If vendors were to capture
10% of value created by their products, AI software could generate up to $14 trillion in revenue and $90 trillion in enterprise value in 2030.

AI Total Addressable Market (TAM) Forecast In 2030

Estimated Human Knowledge Work
Wages Relative To AI Spend In 2030

Software Vendor Value Capture Of Productivity Gain
Estimated Knowledge Work Wages

AI Spend
1%

10%

20%

2.5

$0.8T

$8T

$16T

4.5

$1T

$14T

$29T

6.5

$2T

$21T

$41T

$80
$70

Productivity Uplift

Trillions

$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$Bear Case

Base Case

Bull Case*Gross Domestic Product. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

30

Digital Consumers
Transitioning To Online Leisure
In 2022, digital leisure spending* totaled $6.6 trillion and, during the next eight years, shouldgrow 17% at a compound annual rate to $22.5 trillion adjusted for inflation. Four trends
should contribute to its growth:
Connected TV (CTV): Roughly 85% of US households have access to at least one CTV, but the
CTV ad market is only 23% the size of total US TV ad budgets. In our view, CTV is at an
inflection point and will take share from both linear TV and other digital ad budgets.
New Social Platforms: Nearly 40% of Gen Z consumers prefer to search on TikTok andInstagram over Google Search and Maps. Social platforms with the best recommendationengines should command the majority of ad budgets, with content-based social media likely
outperforming follow-and-feed social media.
Sports Betting: Despite macro headwinds, consumer demand for sports betting remains
strong. Legalization of online/mobile sports betting should continue to catalyze growth.
Gaming: The convergence of video games and social media should sustain gaming revenue
growth. Video games should provide end-to-end virtual entertainment that rivals physicalexperiences.
Research by Nicholas Grous, Associate Portfolio Manager & Andrew Kim, Research Associate*We define digital leisure spending as the sum of consumer expenditures on leisure-related goods and services purchased online, NFTs, online sports betting, video game software and services, streamed video, and streamed audio. We
only estimate online sports betting volume generated in Canada and the US. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Altruda, C. 2022; Roblox, data as of 12/30/22; S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/25/23. The World
Bank, data as of 12/30/22; Insider Intelligence, data as of 01/02/23; S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/25/23; Perez, S. 2022; Statista, data as of 01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

31

Artificial Intelligence Should Increase Time Spent On Digital Entertainment
Thanks to the productivity gains associated with generative AI, daily hours worked globally could decline 0.9% on average at an annual rate during the next five years, from
4.7 hours in 2022 to 4.4 hours in 2030, an accelerated decline from the -0.4% prior rate as of 2013.
In our view, consumers will reallocate extra time to online instead of offline activities, increasing the share of total waking hours spent online from 39% in 2022 to 53% in
2030.

Daily Allocation of Time Online vs. Offline
Global Internet Users**

Average Hours Worked Per Day Globally*
Daily Working Hours

Pre-AI Trend

Online Share
100%

4.9

90%

4.8

80%

Share of Waking Hours

5.0

Hours

4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1

Offline Share

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

4.0

0%
2013 '14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

'21 '22E '23E '24E '25E '26E '27E '28E '29E '30E2013 '14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

'21 '22E '23E '24E '25E '26E '27E '28E '29E '30E

*To calculate global daily working hours, we take the total annual hours of labor per worker as published by the OECD and divide the figure by the total days of the year. **The chart illustrating daily allocation of online vs. offline time
captures total daily waking hours, including those allocated to labor or education. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. OECD Data, data as of 12/28/22; Kemp, S. 2022 – 2012. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be
relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

32

Advertisers Have Yet To Unlock The Potential Of CTVCTV provides advertisers with the targeting and attribution measurement once reserved for traditional digital advertisers. Combining the advantages of linear TV and digitaladvertising, CTV could capture share of both brand and performance ad budgets.* A meaningful disconnect exists between viewership and advertising budgets in the US. In
our view, advertisers will close the gap within the next five years.

Viewership vs. Ad Spend
US CTV vs. Linear TV, 2022
90%

Brand AwarenessLinear
TV Ads•Advertisers believe CTV ads
deliver brand perception
46% more effectively thanlinear TV.

80%

The number of CTV households is 18%
higher than linear TV households…

70%
60%
50%

Connected TV...but CTV ad budgets
account for only 23%
of total TV ad spend.

40%
30%
20%

Sale of
Product orService

DigitalAds•

Advertisers believe CTV
delivers website and sales
actions 57% more effectively
than linear TV.

10%0%
CTV Households

Linear TV

CTV Ad SpendLinear Ad SpendHouseholds% of US Households% of TV Ad Spend in the US*We view a connected TV household as any household owning at least one large-screen display that can stream over-the-top (OTT) content natively through a built-in operating system (OS), external streaming media devices, video game
consoles, etc. We define a linear TV household as any household that views TV via traditional pay TV subscriptions and/or free over-the-air broadcast. A single household may both be a connected TV household and a linear TV
household. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. IAB 2022; Insider Intelligence, data as of 01/12/23; Insider Intelligence, data as of 01/12/23; S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited
and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

33

CTV Should Take Share From Other Digital Ad Budgets And Linear TV
As it displaces linear TV’s once-dominant role in the US, total CTV ad spend should grow 20% in real terms at a compound annual rate, from $21 billion in 2022 to more than
$50 billion in 2027.
After declining 2% at an annual rate for the past five years, US linear TV ad spend should decline 8% at an annual rate during the next five years, from $70 billion to $45
billion by 2027. With improved ad targeting and measurement, CTV advertising should overtake linear TV advertising in the next five years.

US CTV vs. Linear Ad Spend(Real 2022 $, Billions)
CTV Brand SpendCTV Performance SpendLinear TV Spend

$100
$90
$80

$100
$90

$78B

$80

$70B

$70

$70
$53B

$60

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$21B

$20
$10

$20
$10

$3B

$-

$2017

'18

'19

'20

'21

'22

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Insider Intelligence, data as of 12/22/22; S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes onlyand should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

34

Short-Form Video And Recommendation Engines Are Displacing Incumbent Social MediaIn 2022, TikTok and Facebook were roughly equal in engagement hours, which could mark the peak in traditional follow-and-feed social media. Despite scaling faster thanother social media platforms, TikTok* accounted for only $10 billion, or 2% market share, of the estimated $470 billion spent on search, video, and social ads in 2022.
Content-based social media is likely to capture advertising share more in line with its engagement hours.

Global Hours Spent on Mobile Social Apps*(iOS and Android)
Instagram

TikTokTwitter

Facebook + Instagram

Snap

120

$1,000.00

100$100.00
Log ScaleEngaged Hours (Billions)

FacebookSocial Platform Ad Revenues*(Annual Real 2022 $, Billions)

80
60

TikTokTwitterSnap$10.00
$1.00

40

$0.10

20

$0.01

0

$0.00
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22

YouTube

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Years Since Launch*Estimates for TikTok’s engagement hours do not include Douyin. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Unified, data as of 01/02/23; Tsotsis, A. 2012; Meta Platforms, Inc., data as of 12/30/22; Arrington, M. 2007; Insider
Intelligence, data as of 12/22/22; Alphabet, data as of 12/30/22; Iqbal, M. 2022; Twitter, Inc., data as of 12/30/22; Wilhelm, A. 2013; Colao, J. 2012; Snap Inc., data as of 12/30/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

35

Demand For Sports Betting Remains Strong, Even In A Tough Economy
In the first NFL season without COVID-19 protocols, total sports betting in the US and Canada increased an estimated 83% year-over-year to ~$117 billion in 2022. As apercent of total sports betting volume, online has soared from 17% in 2018 to 86% in 2022. Based on ARK's research, online sports betting in the US and Canada is likely togrow 27% in real terms at an annual rate during the next five years, from ~$100 billion in 2022 to ~$330 billion in 2027. During the same time, in-person betting is likely togrow 11% at an annual rate, from $16 billion to $27 billion.

US and Ontario Online Sports Betting Volume(Real 2022 $, Billions)

US and Ontario Sports Betting Volume, In-Person Vs. Online(Real 2022 $)In-Person

Online

$350

100%

$300

80%

Total Handle

Share of Handle

90%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%

27% CAGR

$250
$200
$150
$100

20%

$50

10%
0%
2018

225%
CAGR*

'19

'20

'21

'22E

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

$2018

'19

'20

'21

'22E

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Altruda, C. 2022; Arizona Department of Gaming, data as of 01/25/23; State of Colorado, data as of 01/25/23; New Hampshire Lottery Commission,
data as of 01/25/23; PA Gaming Control Board, data as of 01/25/23; Virginia Lottery, data as of 12/30/22; PLAYWV, data as of 12/30/22; Wyoming Gaming Commission, data as of 12/30/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

36

Immersive Virtual Experiences Should Galvanize The Next Wave Of Gaming
As the gaming industry transitions to full-service virtual worlds, video games and social media could merge as consumers socialize and entertain in game-supported virtual
spaces, at the expense of physical environments. According to ARK’s research, the convergence between gaming and social media should boost the growth in gaming
revenue from 7% at a compound annual rate during the past five years to 10% during the next five years.

Global Gaming Software and Services(Real 2022 $, Billions)

Attendance At Physical Amusement Parks
vs. Branded Virtual Worlds$350

Universal Studios JapanTokyo DisneySea

2019
Attendance
Pre COVID

Disneyland Park
Magic Kingdom Theme Park at Walt Disney…
NIKELAND (Nike)

RobloxAnnualized
Traffic OverThe Life Of
TheExperience

Gucci Town (Gucci)
Walmart Land
Tommy Play (Tommy Hilfiger)
Vans World (Vans)
0

20

40

Annualized AttendanceMillions

60

10% CAGR$250
Revenue

Tokyo Disneyland$300

7% CAGR

$200
$150
$100
$50
$2017

'18

'19

'20

'21

'22

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Note: We annualize Roblox traffic by taking all-time traffic data as provided by Roblox and take the difference between the date pulled and the experience’s launch date. We then calculate theaverage traffic per day for each experience to ultimately gross up the daily traffic estimate to an annualized figure. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Altruda, C. 2022; Roblox, data as of 12/30/22; S&P Global Market
Intelligence, data as of 01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular
security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

37

Trading And Creation Of Digital Assets Diverged During The Bear Market
In 2022, NFT* trading volume increased 15% year-over-year, dominated by high-profile collectible projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club and Crypto Punks. The share of NFTs
minted, however, shifted toward utility-based projects like on-chain domain names and digital memberships. Focused on underlying value instead of speculation, the shift
toward utility is a healthy development.

NFT Volume
Art

AvatarCollectibles

Gaming

NFT Mints
Utility

Virtual Worlds

Art

100%

100%

90%

90%

80%

80%

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%
Q2 Q3
Qtr1Q1 Qtr2
Qtr4 Qtr1Q1 Qtr2
Q2 Qtr3
Q3 Q4
Qtr4 Qtr1Q1 Qtr2
Q2 Q3
Qtr3 Q4
Qtr4 Qtr1Q1 Qtr2
Qtr3 Q4Qtr4
Q2 Qtr3
Q3 Q4
2019

2020

2021

2022

0%

AvatarCollectibles

GamingUtility

Virtual Worlds

Q1 Qtr2
Q2 Q3
Q2 Qtr3
Q3 Q4
Q1 Qtr2
Q2 Q3
Q1 Qtr2
Q2 Q3
Qtr1Q1 Qtr2
Qtr4 Qtr1
Qtr3Q4
Qtr4 Qtr1
Qtr3Q4
Qtr4 Qtr1
Qtr3 Q4
Qtr4
2019

2020

2021

2022

*Non-fungible token (NFT), a unique, programmable blockchain-based digital object that proves ownership of digital assets. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Dune Analytics, data as of 01/23/23; CryptoSlam, data as of
01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance
is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

38

Based On The Introduction Of Property Rights, Digital Assets Should Accrue
Significant Value
Physical and intellectual property rights correlate positively to GDP* per capita, a common proxy for quality of life. In our view, thanks to decentralized proof-of-ownership,digital assets are likely to increase online spending per capita. ARK forecasts that global NFT transaction volume will grow more than five-fold from $22 billion today to $120
billion by 2027.

Property Rights vs. GDP Per Capita(Correlation Across Countries, 2021)
Top 25 Countries

Bottom 25 Countries

Other Countries

Trendline

GDP Per Capita**$120,000

Top 25 Average$54,020$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000

Bottom 25 Average$1,935$20,000
$0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

International Property Rights Index*Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. **Real 2022 $. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023.
Property Rights Alliance, data as of 01/25/23; The World Bank, data as of 12/30/22; CryptoSlam, data as of 01/02/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

10BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

39

Digital Leisure Is In Early Innings
According to ARK’s research, global consumers spent 21% of their $31 trillion leisure budget on digitally-facilitated goods and services in 2022. Demand for digital goods andservices is likely to grow 17% at an annual rate in real terms, surpassing demand for physically-facilitated goods and services in 2029.

Global Leisure Spend*(Real 2022 $)Digitally-Facilitated Leisure Spend

Physically-Facilitated Leisure Spend$30

Trillions

$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$2022E

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

'28E

'29E

'30E

*We define digital leisure spending as the sum of consumer expenditures on leisure-related goods and services purchased online, NFTs, online sports betting, video game software and services, streamed video, and streamed audio. We
only estimate online sports betting volume generated in Canada and the US. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not
be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL CONSUMERS

40

Digital Leisure Revenue Could Reach $5 Trillion Globally In 2030
Based on the shift toward digital leisure and digital property rights, real digital revenue* should grow 14% at an annual rate during the next eight years, from ~$2 trillion in
2022 to $5 trillion in 2030.

Gross Leisure Spend Digital vs. Physical(Real 2022 $)$6

E-commerce Platform Fees
Digital Video
Digital Sports Betting

Digital Advertising
Digital Audio

Video Game Software and Services
NFT Platform and Creator Fees

Trillions

$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$2022E

'23E

'24E

'25E

'26E

'27E

'28E

'29E

'30E

*We define digital leisure revenue as the revenue accrued to platforms and creators from digitally-facilitated leisure spending. We sum e-commerce marketplace fees related to leisure-related goods and services, total digital ad
expenditures, gross video game software and services revenue, gross streamed video revenue, gross streamed audio revenue, gross gaming revenue attributable to online sportsbook operators in Canada and the US, and NFT platform andcreator fees. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

41

Digital Wallets
Disintermediating Traditional Banking
Having onboarded billions of consumers and millions of merchants, digitalwallets could transform the economics associated with traditional paymenttransactions, saving them nearly $50 billion in costs.
With 3.2 billion users, digital wallets have penetrated 40% of the global
population. ARK research suggests that the number of digital wallet users will
increase 8% at an annual rate, penetrating 65% of the global population by 2030.
As consumers and merchants adopt digital wallets, the usage of traditional
checking accounts, credit and debit cards, and direct merchant accounts should
decline, disrupting traditional payment intermediaries.
Cutting out middlemen, digital wallets could facilitate closed-loop transactions
for more than 50% of their payment volumes, potentially adding $450 billion to
the current $1 trillion in digital wallet enterprise value by 2030.
Research by Maximilian Friedrich, Co-Lead, ARK Venture & Analyst
Andrew Kim, Research Associate
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

42

Digital Wallets Are Gaining Share In Online And Offline Transactions
In 2021, digital wallets facilitated 49% of e-commerce transactions, up fromIn 2021, digital wallets facilitated 29% of offline transactions, nearly double the

18% in 2016. Since 2016, digital wallets have been gaining share at the expense

16% in 2018. Overtaking cash as the primary means of offline transactionsof credit cards, bank transfers, and cash.

during the COVID pandemic in 2020, digital wallets continue to gain share.

Payment Methods As Share Of
Global E-Commerce Volume
Digital Wallet

Credit Card

Debit Card

Payment Methods As Share Of
Global Point-Of-Sale (POS) Volume

Cash on Delivery

Other

60%

35%

50%

30%

Credit Card

2018

2019

Debit Card

Cash

Other

25%
Market Share40%
Market Share

Digital Wallet

30%
20%

20%
15%
10%

10%

5%

0%

0%
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2020

2021

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Worldpay, LLC 2017; Worldpay, LLC 2018; FIS 2020; FIS 2021; FIS 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

43

Digital Wallets Are Scaling Faster Than Accounts At Traditional Financial Institutions
The network effects associated with low customer acquisition costs and a superior user experience are powering digital wallet adoption. After the COVID-induced
acceleration and subsequent churn, US digital wallet adoption rebounded in 2022, surpassing previous highs. According to our estimates, US digital wallet users will
increase 7% at an annual rate during the next eight years, from ~160 million in 2022 to more than 260 million, while the number of global digital wallet users increases 8% at
an annual rate, hitting 5.6 billion, 65% of the global population, by 2030.

Global Unique Digital Wallet Users
ARK Estimate and Forecast

US Unique Digital Wallet Users
ARK Estimate And Forecast*

North America (NA)
Latin America (LATAM)
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
6,000

250

5,000

200

4,000

Users (Millions)

300

150
100

' 24
E
' 26
E
' 28
E
' 30
E

' 22

' 20

' 18

' 16

' 14

' 12

' 10

'0
8

'0
2
'0
4
'0
6

8
'0
0

6
'9

'9

4
'9

0
2

0
'9

3.2B

2,000
1,000

19
9

5.6B

3,000

50

0

Users (Millions)

JP Morgan Deposit Accounts
Unique Digital Wallet Users
ARK Digital Wallet User Forecast - Base Case2016 '17

'18

'19

'20

'21

'22 '23E '24E '25E '26E '27E '28E '29E '30E

*Due to a regulatory reporting change, JP Morgan publicized the number of deposit accounts of $100,000 or less until 2010. From 2010 onwards, JP Morgan has since publicized the number of deposit accounts excluding retirement
accounts of $250,000 or less. Data from 1990 to 2009 reflect the number of accounts as of June 30th of each calendar year, while subsequent data reflect the number of accounts as of calendar year end. Sources: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2023. FDIC, data as of 01/17/23; FFIEC, data as of 01/17/23; The World Bank, data as of 01/20/23; Anan, L. et al. 2020; Anan, L. et al. 2022; Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational
purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

44

Digital Wallets Create Closed-Loop Ecosystems For Consumers and Merchants
After acquiring billions of users, digital wallets are onboarding millions of merchants to platforms that enable direct
consumer-merchant transactions that disintermediate traditional financial institutions.*

1.3 Billion
Consumers

Alipay80 Million
Merchants

84 Million
Consumers

Block

7 Million
Merchants

Block encourages its 86 million
Cash App users to shop in Cash
App’s merchant network with
Cash App Pay.

51 Million
Consumers

PayPay3.9 Million
Merchants

12 Million
Consumers

Kaspi

413,000
Merchants*We estimate Cash App’s annual active users in 2022 using public filings, public investor presentations and conferences, and third-party mobile app data. We estimate the number of merchants within Block’s ecosystem by taking the
average total payment volume (TPV) per annual active merchant account as disclosed in PayPal’s public filings and divide the figure by our estimate for Block’s consolidated TPV in 2022. Alipay’s consumer and merchant count source
citations published in 2021 and 2020, respectively. PayPay and Kaspi’s consumer and merchant estimates are from each company’s second fiscal quarter and third fiscal quarter filings, respectively. Sources: ARK Investment Management
LLC, 2023. Block, Inc, data as of 12/29/22; Sensor Tower Inc, data as of 01/25/23; Kaur , D. 2022; China Internet Watch 2022; Z Holdings, data as of 01/17/23; Kaspi, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

45

Digital Wallets Eliminate Middlemen By Enabling Direct Payments Between
Consumers And Merchants
In the traditional payment chain, several intermediaries take tolls on payments* between consumers and merchants. By enabling in-network transactions, digitalwallet providers capture more value per transaction and can share the savings with merchants and consumers.

Traditional Open-Loop Credit And Debit Card Transaction

Closed-Loop Balance-Funded Transaction

Steps Between Buyer and Seller: 9

Steps Between Buyer and Seller: 3

Estimated Intermediary Fees: 2.6%

Estimated Savings: 2.4%

Card
Networks

6

4

Card
Networks
7

3

Issuer

P2P
TransferATM

DirectDeposit

MobileCheck

Acquirer

IssuerAcquirer

1
2

5

Buyer

1

Payment
Service
Provider
(PSP)

8

9

Seller

Buyer

2
In-Network

DigitalWallet3

Seller

In-Network*Estimated fees and payment processes are rendered for illustrative purposes only and are based on sources specific to payment infrastructure in the United States. To estimate intermediary fees under the current payment value chain
in the US, we embed our estimate for interchange, card network, issuer, acquirer, and PSP fees. We assume that a closed-loop transaction can eliminate interchange, card network, issuer, and legacy acquirer fees, but we add backestimated costs associated with topping up digital wallet balances and usage of modern payment facilitators. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

46

Closed-Loop Transactions Could Boost The Margin Structure Of Digital Wallet Providers
In 2022, Block paid ~60% of customer transaction fees to third parties for interchange, assessment, processing, and bank settlement fees. If Cash App customers wereto use their balances to transact with Block merchants, Block's net take rate could more than double.*

Block’s Potential Closed-Loop Unit Economics(Percent of Transaction)

Block’s Current Unit Economics(Percent of Transaction)
3.00%

3.00%

2.81%

2.50%

2.50%

2.00%

2.00%

1.50%

1.50%
-1.64%

1.00%-0.21%

2.60%

1.15%
1.00%

0.50%

0.00%

2.81%

0.50%

Gross Take Rate

ExpenseNet Take Rate

0.00%

Gross Take Rate

ExpenseNet Take Rate

*In the above exercise, we illustrate a scenario in which Block captures 100% of the cost savings associated with the implementation of closed-loop transactions. In reality, we believe the benefits of such cost savings will be shared acrossPSPs, consumers, and merchants. To calculate Block’s gross take rate, we divide total transaction revenue by consolidated gross payment volume (GPV).. To calculate Block’s net take rate, we divide total transaction gross profit by total
GPV. We use the summed data disclosed by Block through the first three fiscal quarters of 2022. We embed 0.21% in costs associated with closed-loop transactions, attributable to ACH transactions and usage of third-party payment
facilitators that help distribute the payment method to merchants. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Block, Inc., data as of 01/19/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes
only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: DIGITAL WALLETS

47

Closed-Loop Transactions Could Account For More Than 50% Of Digital Wallet Payments By 2030
Commonplace in mainland China, closed-loop transactions could disintermediate third-parties and generate nearly $50 billion in cost savings for digital wallet platforms,
consumers, and/or merchants outside of mainland China, potentially adding $450 billion to the $1 trillion in total enterprise value of digital wallet platforms by 2030.

Closed-Loop Cost Savings Relative To Global Credit
And Debit Transaction Revenue, Real $2022

Global Digital Wallet TPV*(Real 2022 $)Open-Loop TPV

Closed-Loop TPV, Mainland China

Closed-Loop TPV, Rest of World

Digital Wallet TPV, Closed-Loop, Rest of World
Digital Wallet TPV, Closed-Loop, Mainland China
Digital Wallet TPV, Open-Loop
Non-Digital Wallet TPV

Trillions

$40
2

$30
$20
$10
$-

2
5
2017

5

6

6

7

8

'18

'19

'20

4

7
10
'21

6

8

14

13

'22

10

14

11

15

11

17

12

18

4
12

20

5
13

20

8
13

20

'23E '24E '25E '26E '27E '28E '29E '30E

Share of Global Private Consumption

$50
100%

36%→64%
Penetration

75%$48B Annual Cost
Savings For ClosedLoop Digital Wallet
Platforms Outside
Of China,
Disintermediating
The Revenue
Growth Rate Of
Card Networks andIssuers.

50%
25%
0%
2022

2030E

*Total processed volume (TPV) only refers to consumption-related payments online or at the point-of-sale. To calculate closed-loop TPV, we assume that digital wallet platforms capture most of the cost savings associated with closed-looptransactions and that these platforms will incentivize users to transact with in-network merchants in the form of rewards. We regress total payment volumes by major credit card issuers, such as American Express, Capital One, and Discover, on
their credit card reward expenses to project how incremental reward spend by digital wallet platforms can generate additional TPV in the form of closed-loop transactions. We assume that incremental cost savings from increased adoption ofclosed-loop payments in mainland China will be negligible, as we estimate that 1) PSP gross and net take rates for consumption transactions are already low and may remain low due to competitive and regulatory pressures, and 2) the
penetration of balance-funded transactions has already reached maturity and will not meaningfully increase throughout the next decade. To calculate the incremental cost savings accrued to digital wallet platforms, we forecast open-loop
and closed-loop net PSP take rates outside of mainland China out to 2030 and take the difference in revenue implied by the two metrics after accounting for other closed-loop transaction costs. We do not include additional cost savings fromthe potential decline in overdraft, checking account maintenance, and ATM fees, as well as interest income lost from churned deposits. Finally, to calculate the $450 billion in incremental enterprise value, we apply a 9.5x gross profit multiple
to our 2030 TPV estimates, then take the difference in enterprise value between our forecast and a scenario in which 100% of digital wallet transactions outside of mainland China remain open-loop. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC,
2023. Ant Group 2023; McKinsey & Company 2022; MPayPass 2020-2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation tobuy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

48

Public Blockchains
Gaining Traction In The Midst Of Crisis
In 2022, the contagion from Terra/LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, andFTX/Alameda wiped out ~$1.5 Trillion in crypto market capitalization.
Despite the severe downturn, public blockchains continue to foster The
Monetary, Financial, And Internet Revolutions. The long-term opportunity
for Bitcoin, DeFi, and Web3 is strengthening.
Cryptocurrencies and smart contracts could command $20 trillion and $5
trillion in market value, respectively, during the next ten years.

Research by Yassine Elmandjra, Crypto Lead
Frank Downing, Director of Research, Next Generation Internet
David Puell, Research Associate
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. CoinMarketCap, data as of 12/31/2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

49

Contagion Wiped Out ~$1.5 Trillion In Crypto Market Capitalization In 2022
Total Crypto Market Cap In 2022
Bullish Event$2.5

The Fed raises rates for the
first time since 2018

Luna and UST collapse, marking
the most damaging event in crypto
market history$2.0
Total Crypto Market Cap (Trillions)

Bearish Event

OFAC sanctions open-source

Lending platform Celsius
declares bankruptcy$1.5

Crypto Exchange FTX
declares bankruptcy

software Tornado Cash

Ethereum successfully
Lending platform

transitions to proof-of-stake

Blockfi declares
bankruptcy

Crypto companies, including
FTX and Crypto.com,$1.0

dominate super bowl ads, asign of irrational exuberance
Coinbase and BlackRock
announce partnership

Ethereum passes first major test in
proof-of-stake transition$0.5

Hedge fund Three Arrows
Capital declares bankruptcy$0.0
Jan-22

Feb-22Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22Jun-22

Jul-22

Bitcoin’s hash rate hits an all-time highAug-22

Sep-22Oct-22

Prime broker Genesis andGemini’s Earn halt withdrawals
Nov-22

Dec-22

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Ponnezhath, M. et al. 2022; Choo, L. 2022; Tepper, T. 2022; TechnoPixel 2022; Sandor, K. et al. 2022; De, N. et al. 2022; Tejpaul, B. et al. 2022; US Department of the Treasury 2022; O'Neill, A.
2022; Sigalos, M. 2022; Ponciano, J. 2022; Sigalos, M. et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

50

Despite A Severe Downturn, Public Blockchains Continue To Foster Multiple Revolutions
Public Blockchain Infrastructure

The Money Revolution

The Financial Revolution

The Internet Revolution

Coordination of value transfer andproperty rights outside the purview ofcentralized authorities, governments,
and top-down control

Coordination of financial services andcontracts outside the purview of
traditional financial institutions

Coordination of identity, reputation, anddata outside the purview of traditional
media conglomerates and big tech

Fiat Currencies &Central Banking

Global, Decentralized,
Non-State Money• Bitcoin has settled ~$100 trillion of value in~791 million transactions since its inception.
• Independent of price, miners continued tovalidate transactions, mining ~53,000 blocks
and generating ~$10 billion of revenue in 2022.

Traditional Finance(TradFi)••

Decentralized Finance(DeFi)In 2022, decentralized financial services
demonstrated resilience relative to theircentralized counterparts in 2008-09.
In the face of fraud, undisciplined risk, andnon-transparent operators, demand fordecentralized, auditable and transparent
financial services is stronger than ever.

Corporate-Owned
Platforms

Interoperable, UserOwned Web•

NFTs1 highlight the potential for mainstream
crypto demand and could put private key
cryptography in the hands of millions.

•

Dozens of companies and publishers haveannounced web3 ambitions.

[1] Non-fungible token (NFT), a unique, programmable blockchain-based digital object that proves ownership of digital assets. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/20/23, figures not entity-adjusted.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past
performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

51

Monetary Revolution | Bitcoin’s Long-Term Opportunity Is Strengthening
THE PROBLEM

THE REVOLUTION

Centralized Monetary Systems Have Failed To Provide Strong

Bitcoin is censorship-resistant.

Economic Assurances.
•> 4 billion people live under authoritarian regimes.

•> 2 billion people suffer from double-digit inflation.

•> 1 billion people cannot use traditional payment transfer apps.

•> 1 billion people rely on remittances.

The barriers to transacting on Bitcoin are low, the only requirement
being possession of a private key.
Bitcoin is inflation-resistant.
The number of bitcoin created is mathematically metered andpredictable, according to a predefined schedule. The supply of
bitcoin outstanding is 19 million now and capped at 21 million units.

THE DATA
Bitcoin Network Stats

2022

Cumulative1

Transfer Volume ($ Trillions)+$38.7$105.3

Transaction Count (Millions)

+95.4

791.4

Total Addresses (Millions)+147.51,100

Addresses With A Balance (Millions)

+3.75

43.2

Miner Revenue ($ Billions)

+$9.5

$47.4

Bitcoin is seizure-resistant.
Bitcoin combines elliptic curve cryptography and secure custody toensure independent property rights.
Bitcoin is auditable and transparent.
Bitcoin decision making is transparent and decentralized. Running afull node, a user is free to validate transactions and audit supply.

[1] Cumulative since inception in January 3, 2009. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Kasparov, G. et al. 2017; Hall, J. 2022; The World Bank 2021; International Fund for Agricultural Development 2022; Glassnode, data as of
01/20/23, figures not entity-adjusted. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular
security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

52

Financial Revolution | Decentralized Finance Powered Through The Crypto Crisis
THE PROBLEM•

THE REVOLUTION

More than 2 billion people lack access to basic banking services, including
account management and credit.

•

The opacity of traditional financial institutions has caused catastrophic
financial collapses.

•

Counterparty risk among traditional financial institutions results in single
points of failure, and centralized decision making enables rampant rentseeking.

THE DATA~$1.2 trillion in DeFi trading volume, up 12x
from 2020 to 2022.

•~52% increase in DeFi trading volume
relative to total crypto trading volume after
the FTX collapse.

••~$9 trillion in on-chain stablecoin transfers,
more than card networks Mastercard, Amex,and Discover combined in 2022.
~$32 billion in withdrawals and nearly $1
billion in liquidations in 2022.

Automated smart contracts guarantee execution without theneed for trusted toll-takers.
DeFi is global.

DeFi Trading Volume$2
Trading Volume (Trillions)•

DeFi eliminates traditional intermediaries.

$1.5
$1.2

Financial services deployed on open protocols enableanyone with an internet connection access to custody,
trading, and lending facilities.
DeFi is interoperable.
Financial services are open-source and interoperable,
allowing for rapid innovation and experimentation.
DeFi is auditable and transparent.

$1

Users govern risk and functions, while collateralization andasset flows are open for inspection.

$0.1
$0
2020

2021

2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. The World Bank 2016; The Block, data as of 01/17/23; Johnson, P. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

53Internet Revolution | The Case For Web3 Is Reaching A Tipping Point
THE PROBLEM

THE REVOLUTION•

The Internet relies on tech monopolies that exploit, own, and monetize
user data.

Web3 is user owned.

•

Online identity and reputation are not interoperable.

Web3 introduces digital property rights for the first time.

•

Centralized decision makers dictate the discovery of information,subjectively moderating content and communication.

Web3 relies on protocols, not platforms.
Decentralized protocols enable the governance of—and open
access to — distributed data, limiting central aggregator control.

THE DATA•

5 million unique IDs issued across the Ethereum Name
Service and Unstoppable Domains.

•$22 billion in annual NFT1 trading volume, up 15% in 2022.

•

127 million in cumulative NFT creations.

•

Major brands, including Starbucks, Adidas, Nike, CocaCola, and the NBA, partnering with Web3 protocols.

•

Major social platforms including Instagram, Twitter,
Reddit launching NFT-powered capabilities.

Web3 enables new monetization paradigms.
Web3 embeds economics into software, enabling users tomonetize and participate in network development.
Web3 enables the convergence between consumption andinvestment.
Consumer behavior is shifting as the economy becomes digitally
native, enabling a new paradigm for purchasing, owning, andusing goods and services.

[1] Non-fungible token (NFT), a unique, programmable blockchain-based digital object that proves ownership of digital assets. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Malwa, S. 2023; Unstoppable Domains, data as of 01/16/23;
CryptoSlam, data as of 01/17/23; Dune Analytics, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation tobuy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PUBLIC BLOCKCHAINS

54

Cryptoassets Could Rival And Redefine Traditional Asset Classes
Market Capitalization: Traditional Asset Classes And Cryptoassets
2030
Cryptocurrencies

Smart Contracts

$300
$250

Trillions

$200
$150

According to our research,
cryptocurrencies and smart
contracts could create $20
trillion and $5 trillion inmarket value, respectively.

$280

$100

$123

$50

$98

$97

$12

$0
Global Real Estate

Global Debt

Global M2

Global Equities

Gold

$1

25x

Cryptoassets (2022)$25 trillion$20$5Cryptoassets(Estimated for 2030)

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Bank for International Settlements, data as of 01/25/23; Bloomberg, data as of 01/25/23; 8MarketCap, data as of 01/17/23; TradingView, data as of 01/17/23; Desjardins, J. 2020. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is notindicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

55

Bitcoin
A Durable Network
We believe Bitcoin’s long-term opportunity is strengthening. Despite aturbulent year, Bitcoin has not skipped a beat. Its network fundamentals
have strengthened and its holder base has become more long-term
focused.
Contagion caused by centralized counterparties has elevated Bitcoin’svalue propositions: decentralization, auditability, and transparency.
The price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million in the next decade.

Research by Yassine Elmandjra, Crypto Lead
Frank Downing, Director of Research, Next Generation Internet
David Puell, Research Associate
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

56

The Drawdown From Bitcoin's All-Time High Was The Fifth Largest And Second
Longest In History
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Drawdowns

Bitcoin Percent Drawdowns In Bear Markets
Jun 2011 - Nov 2011

Nov 2013 - Jan 2015

Dec 2017 - Dec 2018

Peak

2022
Nov 2021 - Nov?

Trough0%Percent Drawdown From Peak To Trough

-10%
-20%

Bitcoin found a bottom
at ~$15,800 in 2022, down
~77% from its all-timehigh in November 2021

-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%

Date

Price

Date

Price

Drawdown

June
2011

$31.91

November
2011

$2.00

-93.7%

November
2013$1,242January
2015$152-87.7%

December2017$19,891

December
2018$3,128-84.3%

November
2021$69,000

November
20221$15,797-76.7%

157.9%

Trough-toTroughAverage
CAGR

153.6%

Peak-to-Peak
Average
CAGR

-90%
-100%
1

50

99

148

197

246

295

344

393

Duration (Days)
Note: Bitcoin experienced an 81% drawdown in April 2013 that is not included in the chart or table given the duration lasted only 6 days and, in this context, is considered an outlier. [1] The trough in November 2021 is assumed to be thelowest mark in price as of December 31, 2022. Lower price levels may develop during 2023 or after. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

57

Despite Severe Drawdowns, Bitcoin Has Outperformed Every Major Asset Class Over
Longer Time Horizons
Bitcoin’s volatility has obscured its long-term returns. Despite five drawdowns greater than 75% since its inception in 2009, bitcoin has delivered positive annualized returns
over 3-, 4-, and 5-year time horizons.

Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Returns (CAGR) Are Positive Over3-, 4-, and 5-Year Time Horizons*
5-year CAGR

4 - Year CAGR

Bitcoin Has Outperformed
Traditional Asset Classes Since Its Inception

3-year CAGR

3–Year CAGR

4–Year CAGR

5–Year CAGR

800%

Compound Annual Return

700%
600%

Asset Classes

Average1

2022

Average1

2022

Average1

2022

Global Equities

10.6%

4.9%

10.1%

10.2%

6.1%

6.1%

Global Debt

1.5%

-4.5%

1.5%

-1.8%

1.4%

-1.7%

Gold

2.4%

6.3%

2.5%

9.2%

2.2%

7.0%

Bitcoin

152%

35.6%

187%

49.4%

272%

8.7%

500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

*Average CAGRs are calculated since bitcoin’s price inception. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23; Bloomberg, data as of 01/27/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

58

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Are Stronger Today Than In Past Drawdowns
Bitcoin In Perspective At $15,800 After 77% Drawdowns
Price: $15,800

Price Drawdown: 77% from all-time high$102,400
C: BTC
reclaims~$15,800

A: BTC hits ~$15,800
for the first time

$25,600$15,800 price line:
current cycle low
as of December
31, 2022

A

Bitcoin Metrics

CD$6,400

D: BTC hits a 2-year
low at ~$15,800, after~77% drawdown fromits all-time highB
B: BTC draws down
~77% from its alltime high$1,600

$400
2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

A

B

C

D

Dec. 10, 2017

Nov. 20, 2018

Nov. 11, 2020

Nov 21, 2022

Market Cost Basis(Realized Cap, $, Billions)1

$58.2

$85.1

$126.3$393

Cost Basis Per BTC(Realized Price, $)2$3,485$4,713$6,811$20,459

Hash Rate(EH/s)3

12.6

44.5

127.8

262.4

Supply Of BTC Last
Moved >1 Year Ago (%)

44.1%

51.8%

61.8%

66.5%

BTC Addresses With
Non-Zero Balance (Millions)

24.0

22.5

32.6

43.5

Long-Term Holder Supply
(%)4

51.9%

67.5%

66.3%

71.8%

Lightning Network Capacity(BTC)5

N/A

340

1,040

4,700

[1] Market cost basis: The on-chain volume-weighted average price of the market, calculated by aggregating the value of all bitcoins in circulation at the time when they last moved. Also known as realized cap. [2] Cost basis per BTC: The
market cost basis divided by total outstanding supply. Also known as realized price. [3] Hash rate: The number of computations per second produced by miners and a proxy for network security. [4] Long-term holder supply: The numberof coins that last moved 155 days or longer. 155 days is the threshold when the probability of a bitcoin being spent in the future diminishes substantially. [5] Lightning Network capacity: The number of bitcoins locked in the Lightning
Network. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

59

Bitcoin Capitulation Has Hit Levels Associated With Price Troughs In The Past
In 2022, bitcoin holder capitulation was proportionate to that at previous cycle lows.

The Percentage Of Bitcoin Trading At A Loss
Reached An All Time High in 20221
Percent Supply In Loss

Price

Realized Loss

In 2022, the percent of
bitcoin’s supply trading
at a loss peaked at 68.3%,
exceeding that in every
previous bear market.

$10,000

60%$1,000

40%

$100

20%

$10

0%
2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

$1
2023

Bitcoin Price80%

Realized Profit$500$100,000
Annual Realized Profits and Losses (Billions)

100%

Percent Supply in Loss

Bitcoin Holders Realized Record Losses Of~$200 Billion In 20222

$450
$400
$350

In 2022, realized profits
declined by a record 75%,
as investors capitulated.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

[1] The percent of bitcoin at loss is adjusted by discounting coins that have not moved in 7 years or longer. This serves as a heuristic to remove potentially lost coins from calculation. [2] Realized losses: The number of coins moved onchain at a price lower that when they last moved. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/20/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should
not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

60

Bitcoin Holders Are More Long-Term Focused Than At Any Point In History
Despite extreme market fear fueled by the collapse of several major crypto entities, on-chain data suggest that bitcoin holders remained focused on long-term
fundamentals.

Bitcoin Supply Held By Long-Term Holders Hit An All Time High in 20221
Long Term Holder Supply

Price$100,00014

10$1,0008

The number of bitcoin not moved in ~6months is the threshold at which theprobability of selling diminishes dramatically.
At year-end 2022, long term holders owned
71% of total bitcoin supply outstanding.

6
4

$10

2
0
2010

$0
2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

[1] Long-term holder supply: The number of coins that last moved 155 days or longer. 155 days is the threshold when the probability of a bitcoin being spent in the future diminishes substantially. Sources: ARK Investment Management
LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/20/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any
particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bitcoin Price Log Scale

Number of BTC (Millions)12BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

61

Exchanges Have Increased Transparency In Response To The Collapse Of Trust In
Centralized Crypto Entities
A “run on the bank” forced a record number of exchanges to publish

In 2022, Net Outflows From Centralized Exchanges Totaled
560,000 BTC, The Largest In History1
Annual Net Flowsolvency, otherwise known as “proof-of-reserves” (PoR).

BTC Balance On Exchanges
1,200

800

3

400
2
0
1

-400

The percent of bitcoin on centralized exchanges
hit a 5-year low of ~2.2 million BTC, accounting for11.7% of circulating supply, at year-end 2022.

0

-800
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Annual Net Flows (Thousands BTC)

4BTC Balance On Exchanges (Millions)

auditable financials and cryptographically verifiable attestations of

Exchange“PoR” Publication Year2

Binance

2022

BitMEX

2021

ByBit

2022

Coinbase3

2021

Crypto.com

2022

Deribit2022

Gate.io2020

Kraken2014

Kucoin

2022

Luno

2021

OKX

2014

[1] Outflows from exchanges saw historical values in 2022 and so did the market share between these. For instance, Coinbase saw an increase of 11 percentage points in market share amongst fiat exchanges during 2022, from 29% to 40%(as per The Block), remaining as the premier regulated retail on-ramp in the US. [2] The proofs-of-reserves herein vary in quality and standard. [3] While Coinbase has not conducted a cryptographic proof of reserves, its status as a publiccompany requires it to publish extensive "proof of solvency" reporting. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/20/23; Carter, N. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

62

Bitcoin’s Hash Rate Hit An All-Time High In 2022
Bitcoin’s hash rate—the number of computations per second produced by miners and a proxy for network security—has increased for twelve consecutive years, hitting an
all-time high of 272 exahashes/second in 2022.

Bitcoin Hash Rate
Average Annual Hash Rate

Hash Rate

300

Exahashes/Second

250

200

150

100

50

0
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

63

Bitcoin Mining Is Harnessing And Containing Natural Gas Emissions
Bitcoin mining is ideal for oil and gas well sites: it is distributed and highly scalable with modular hardware that can be transported to and shifted among operating wellsites. Because oil and gas well lifespans often are limited, bitcoin mining could make the difference between high and low returns on investment.

With The Introduction Of Bitcoin Mining At Oil And Gas Well Sites,
Independent Bitcoin Miners2 Could Become Unprofitable

Over 265 Billion Cubic Meters Of
Natural Gas1 Are Wasted Each YearNet Present Value Breakeven

200
180

140

0.20
140
125

120
100
80
60
40

25

20
Flared Emissions

Vented Methane

Annual Methane

Emissions

Needed for Current
Bitcoin Hash Rate

Miner Revenue/Hashrate (TH/S)

Cubic Meters (Billions)

160

30 Day Trailing Average Miner Revenue/Hashrate

0.18
Natural Gas Generator + Gas Venting

0.16
0.14

Public mining companies

0.12
0.10

Directional withany carbon pricing

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
$-

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

$0.14

Levelized Cost Of Energy ($/kWh)[1] Flared emissions: The wasteful burning of excess gas released during oil production. Vented methane: The intentional and controlled release of gases containing alkane hydrocabrons, predominately methane, into the earth's
atmosphere. [2] Independent bitcoin miners: Refers to mining operations that solely mine bitcoin as business model and revenue source. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Sources: ARK Investment Management
LLC, 2023. Chen, Y. et al. 2022; Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past
performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

64

Institutions Are Committing To Bitcoin During A Bear Market
EntityBlackRock

Market Validation

June 2022: BlackRock's Aladdin partnered with Coinbase Prime to provide institutional clients withdirect access to crypto, starting with bitcoin. Connecting to Coinbase Prime, Blackrock’s Aladdin could
usher trillions of dollars into the asset class in the coming years.

BNY Mellon

October 2022: BNY Mellon launched a cryptoasset custody platform to safeguard assets for
institutional investors. Touching more than 20% of the world's investable assets, BNY Mellon could
use bitcoin to scale financial services cost-effectively.

Eaglebrook Advisors

October 2022: Eaglebrook Advisors and ARK Investment Management partnered to offer
financial advisors access to actively-managed crypto strategies, including direct cryptoasset
ownership, low minimums, and portfolio reporting integration.

Fidelity

November 2022: Fidelity officially launched retail bitcoin and ether trading
accounts enabling investors to trade and custody them on its platform.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: BITCOIN

65

Bitcoin Is Likely To Scale Into A Multi-Trillion Dollar Market
ARK’s research estimates that the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 20301

Penetration Rate

2030 Bitcoin Price Target(12/31/22 to 12/31/30 CAGR)

Bitcoin Use Case

$1.48 million
CAGR: ~75%

$1,600,000

Price Target Assumptions$1,400,000

Corporate Treasury

TAM: Cash & Equivalents

Remittance Asset

TAM: Global Remittance Volume$1,200,000

Nation State Treasury

TAM: Global Treasury Reserves$1,000,000

Emerging Market Currency$682,800
CAGR: ~60%

$800,000

TAM: M2 Base Outside of Top 4

Economic Settlement Network

TAM: US Bank Settlement Volumes$600,000

Seizure-Resistant Asset$400,000$200,000

TAM: Global HNWI Wealth$258,500
CAGR: ~40%

Institutional Investment

TAM: Institutional Asset Base

Digital Gold$0

TAM: Gold Market Cap

2030 Price Target
Bear Case

2030 Price Target
Base Case

Bear

Base

Bull

0%

2.5%

5%

5%

10%

25%

0%

1%

5%

0.5%

3%

10%

1%

5%

10%

1%

3%

5%

1%

2.5%

6.5%

20%

40%

50%

2030 Price Target
Bull Case[1] In this year’s presentation of bitcoin price target, ARK has added bear, base, and bull price targets as opposed to the single price target given in 2022’s Big Ideas report. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is notindicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

66

Smart Contract
Networks
Enabling Financial And Internet Revolutions
In the aftermath of catastrophic failures of centralized crypto intermediaries lastyear, automated self-executing contracts on decentralized public blockchains
offer the alternative of transparent and non-custodial financial services.
Decentralization is proving more critical to maintaining the original value
proposition of public blockchain infrastructure.
According to ARK’s research, as the value of tokenized financial assets grows onchain, decentralized applications and the smart contract networks that power
them could generate $450 billion in annual revenue and reach $5.3 trillion inmarket value by 2030.

Research by Frank Downing, Director of Research, Next Generation Internet
Yassine Elmandjra, Crypto LeadDavid Puell, Research Associate
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS67

The Utility Of Smart Contract Networks Is Expanding And Diversifying
Once dominated by simple asset transfers, activity on public blockchains like Ethereum has diversified into decentralized financial services (DeFi) and the NFT-based
creation and ownership of digital goods, among other applications.

Ethereum Utilization By Transaction Type1
Bridges

DeFi

ERC20

MEV Bots

NFTs

Stablecoins

ETH Transfers

Share Of Gas Usage (Excluding Unknown Txns)

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22[1] 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS

68

Decentralized Finance Is A Promising
Alternative To Centralized
Intermediaries

Decentralized Trading Volume And Share
Monthly DEX Volume

DEX Market Share

$250

16%

Abandoning centralized intermediaries and moving to self-custody

Since 2020, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume as a percentage
of total crypto trading volume has been rising.
The ratio fell during the summer, perhaps as speculative trading aroundlong-tail assets limited to DEXs died down after the collapse of Terra /Luna, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital. After FTX collapsed in November,
however, DEX market share shot up 52%, from 9% to 14% of total trading
volume.

Decentralized Trading Volume (Billions)exchanges.

$200
12%

10%

$150

8%

$100

6%

4%

$50
2%

$0
Ju
l-2
2
O
ct
-2
2

Ju
l-2
1
O
ct
-2
1
Ja
n22
Ap
r22

Ja
n21
Ap
r21

Ja
n20
Ap
r20

Ju
l-2
0
O
ct
-2
0

0%

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. The Block, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Share Of Total Crypto Trading Volume

14%

solutions, traders increasingly favor the transparency of decentralized

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS69

As Centralized Crypto Lenders
Failed, DeFi Lending Protocols
Functioned As Designed

Aave v2 Lending Market Flows
Cumulative Inflows

Cumulative Outflows

Daily Inflows

Daily Outflows$1,000,000,000

As insolvencies mounted across crypto lending businesses like

$800,000,000

Celsius and Voyager, decentralized lending markets like Aave
continued to operate as designed. They processed deposits,

Since November 2020, Aave has processed more than $75 billion in
inflows and $66 billion in outflows, all autonomously via smart
contracts.
Risk controls and full transparency of deposits, loans, andcollateralization ratios have contributed to DeFi’s stability.

$40,000,000,000$400,000,000$20,000,000,000$200,000,000$0$0-$200,000,000-$20,000,000,000-$400,000,000-$40,000,000,000-$600,000,000-$60,000,000,000-$800,000,000

Nov-22

Sep-22

Jul-22

May-22Mar-22

Jan-22

Nov-21

Sep-21

Jul-21

May-21

Mar-21

Jan-21-$80,000,000,000

Nov-20-$1,000,000,000

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. DefiLlama, data as of 01/03/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cumulative inflows / Outflows

interruption.

$60,000,000,000$600,000,000

Daily Inflows / Outflows

withdrawals, originations, and liquidations without service$80,000,000,000

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS70

The Merge Ushered Ethereum Into A New Era
During the Merge in September 2022, Ethereum transitioned from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). No longer required to pay energy-intensive miners
for security, Ethereum strengthened its monetary policy and reduced new token issuance. With its new token model, Ethereum’s net annual issuance has flattened
and is now lower than Bitcoin’s 1.7% and the 4% in Ethereum’s prior PoW model. With the sustained network, the supply of ether will fall.

Comparative Supply Growth Post Merge

Ether Daily Issuance

Ethereum PoS
Net Issuance 1

PoW Issuance
Ethereum POW
Issuance*

Bitcoin Issuance

18,0001.35%

The Merge

16,000

1.17%
1.15%

14,0004% CAGR2

12,0000.95%

10,000

0.75%

8,000

0.55%

1.7% CAGR

6,000
0.35%

4,000

0.15%

2,000
0
Jul-220.51%-0.07% CAGR
-0.02%

Aug-22

Sep-22Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22-0.05%
Sep-22Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22[1] Token issuance is the process of creating new tokens that then are added to the total supply of the cryptocurrency. [2] Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Glassnode, data as of
01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS

71

Still In Early Days, Ethereum’s Layer 2 Networks Are Beginning To Scale
Once challenged by significant congestion, Ethereum has developed a solution to scaling—“layer 2” networks—that is gaining meaningful traction. The number oftransactions on Arbitrum and Optimism, two popular layer 2 networks, now matches that on Ethereum’s base layer, and the number of active addresses on each grew
11x and 19x, respectively, in 2022.

40,000600,000

30,000400,000

20,000200,000

10,000

0

0
3/
1/
22
4/
1/
22

Optimism

7/
1/
22
8/
1/
22

800,000

1/
1/
22
2/
1/
22

50,000

11 /
1/
22
12
/1/
22

1,000,000

9/
1/
22
10
/1
/2
2

60,000

7/
1/
22
8/
1/
22

1,200,000

5/
1/
22
6/
1/
22

70,000

1/
1/
22
2/
1/
22

1,400,000

5/
1/
22
6/
1/
22

Arbitrum

11 /
1/
22
12
/1/
22

Arbitrum + Optimism

3/
1/
22
4/
1/
22

Ethereum

Average Daily Active Addresses1

9/
1/
22
10
/1
/2
2

Average Daily Transactions1[1] 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Dune Analytics, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS

72

Concerns About Network Censorship Intensified After The Merge
Validator Concentration

Transaction CensorshipAs stakers prioritize convenience over decentralization, the top threeAs financial incentives to maximize rewards begin to outweigh censorshipstaking services now account for roughly two thirds of total Ether staked.

resistance, Flashbots and other services that censor transactions are growing
as a share of new blocks.

ProviderStaked ETH

Share

Lido Finance

4,642,432

29%

Coinbase

2,066,976

13%

Kraken1,205,536

8%

Binance

1,012,864

6%

Staked.us561,408

4%

Bitcoin Suisse

459,4883%

Rocket Pool

410,560

3%30%

Figment

396,032

2%

20%

Other

1,270,032

8%

10%

Unknown Addresses

3,844,579

24%

Total

14,730,023

100%

0%
Sep-22

Share Of New Blocks Proposed By Flashbots In 2022
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Nansen, data as of 01/17/23; Flashbots, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS

73

True Decentralization Is More
Difficult For New Networks

Percent Of Supply AllocatedTo Insiders In Notable L1 Launches
100%

On layer 1 blockchains, the percentage of token supply allocated toinsiders—founding teams, private investors, and privately controlled

90%

foundations and ecosystem funds—has been increasing.

80%

Since 2017, founders have been increasing war chests to compete with70%

incumbents, and venture capital has been investing aggressively in base60%

layer protocols. Additionally, regulatory concerns have hindered theInitial Coin Offering as an open distribution model.
Consequently, new networks cannot claim they are sufficiently

50%
40%

decentralized on a token holder basis and could be susceptible to30%

pressure by insiders.

20%
10%

Bi
tc
oi
n20
09
St
el
la
rEt
20
he
14
re
um
-2
Ca
01
rd
4
an
o20
17
Te
zo
s20
17
Tr
on
-2
Po
01
ly
7
go
n
-2
Al
01
go
9
ra
nd
-2
01
So
9
la
n
aAv
20
al
an
20
ch
ePo
20
lk
20
ad
ot
-2
02
0
N
ea
r-2
02
Ap
0
to
s20
22

0%

Blockchain - Year Of Last Funding RoundSources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Messari, data as of 01/25/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: SMART CONTRACT NETWORKS

74

Smart Contract Networks Could Facilitate $450 Billion In Annual Fees By 2030
Smart contracts could facilitate the origination, ownership, and management of tokenized assets for a fraction of the cost of traditional financial services. If financial
assets were to migrate to blockchain infrastructure at a rate similar to the adoption of the early internet, and decentralized financial services charged a third of
traditional financial services take rates, smart contracts could generate $450 billion in annual fees and create $5.3 trillion in market value by 2030.

Tokenized Assets Vs. All Financial Assets
Global Financial Assets

Fees Generated By Smart Contracts

Tokenized Assets$1,200$500.000$450B$450.000$400.000

$400

GR 1

$300.000CA$250.000%$600$350.000$200.000

59$800

Fees (Billions)

Total Asset Value (Trillions)$1,000$150.000$100.000

$200
5%

$2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

$50.000
$-

$11B
2022

2030

[1] Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Token Terminal, data as of 01/03/22; McKinsey & Company 2021. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational
purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

75

Precision Therapies
Expanding Medicine To Treat And Cure Disease
Precision therapies are patient-centric and target the root cause of disease,
not symptoms. Designed using novel experimental and computational
methods, precision therapies could develop faster and more cost-effectively
than traditional therapies.
Rapid advances in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), DNA and RNA
sequencing, CRISPR gene editing, and laboratory automation have spawned
new therapies, enabling the treatment of diseases previously consideredintractable. Increasingly, precision therapies are becoming multiomic, withmechanisms of action spanning DNA, RNA, proteins, and more.
Based on ARK's research, the enterprise value of companies focused on
precision therapies could appreciate 29% at an annual rate from ~$500
billion in 2022 to ~$3 trillion by 2030.1

Research by Ali Urman, Analyst & Pierce Jamieson, Research Associate
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES76

Pharmaceuticals Need Innovation
Unlike the last 30 years, the change in death rates associated with cancer and cardiovascular diseases during the past five years has not improved significantly,
suggesting that existing approaches have reached diminishing returns, as shown on the left below. Emerging precision therapy modalities could become best-inclass, lowering death rates across many diseases, including neurological, as shown on the right below.
Compared to older pharmaceuticals, innovative precision therapies have advantages that could cause significant shifts in market share. Precision therapy toolkits arebroadening with techniques that target DNA, RNA, proteins, and more—giving researchers unprecedented flexibility to tackle different diseases.

Percent Change in Deaths/100,000 People

Cardiovascular

CancerAdvantages

Modality

Death Rate by Disease Area (Annual Percent Change)
NeurologicalMore Treatments
For Rare Diseases

DNA(CRISPR/Cas,Base, Prime)

2%

Fewer Off Target
Effects

1%
RNA(RNA editing, ASO’s,
et al.)

0%
-1%
-2%

Protein(Targeted Protein
Degradation)

-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
1991

1994

1997

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

2015

2018

2021

OthersInnovative
Precision
Therapies

More Preselection
Biomarkers
Better Safety
ProfilesIncreased
Likelihoodof Approval

FasterDevelopment
Times
Others

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. World Health Organization, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment
advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

77

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES

The Central Dogma Of Biology
Cell Nucleus

The central dogma describes the flow of information through biologicalProteinsystems. With DNA as the template, our cells transcribe RNA molecules,
which translate into proteins. DNA mutations migrate through thisDNA

process, sometimes producing dysfunctional proteins. Although proteins
are the main causes of disease, scientists can target any molecule—DNA,
RNA, or proteins—with precision therapies.

RNA

DNA

RNA

PROTEIN

We believe that more therapeutic targets could result in better healthoutcomes for patients.

Cell Membrane
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Malone, C. 2007. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation tobuy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES

78

Innovative Therapies Are Targeting Each Part Of The Central Dogma
RNA

DNA

Researchers can target DNA1 using gene editing to cure or prevent heart disease, silence RNA2 to control polyneuropathy,

PROTEINDNARNAPROTEINDNA Editing Is Preventing Cardiovascular
Disease in Non-Human Primates (NHPs)

RNA Silencing Is Reversing
Neurological Diseases

Targeted PROTEIN Degraders
Inhibit Tumor Growth
500

35

0%
-20%
Control-40%

VERVE-101

-60%
-80%
0

200

400

30

Placebo25

400

Patirisan

20
15
10
5

VERVE-101 is a gene editing therapy for thetreatment of hypercholesterolemia underclinical investigation by Verve Therapeutics.

300

-5

0

10

20

Months Post-Treatment
Developed by Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Patirisan
was approved recently by the FDA for hATTR
Amyloidosis leading to polyneuropathy.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Musunuru, K. et al. 2021; [2] Adams, D. et al. 2018; [3] Robbins, D. et al. 2020.

NX-2127

200
100

0

-10
Days Post Treatment

Ibrutinib

Tumor Size (mm3)20%Percent Change In Severity

Percent Change in LDL Cholesteroland degrade proteins3 to limit the growth of tumors.

0
-5

5

15

25

Days Post Treatment
Ibrutinib is a small molecule drug for treatment
of several cancer types.
NX-2127 is Nurix Therapeutics' targeted protein
degrader currently under clinical investigation.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES

79

Gene Editing Is Close To Commercialization

Number of Gene-Editing Trials and Product Approvals

system (CNS), and muscles.

10

600
400

5

200
2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

0
2023

0
2022

the lower chart.

800

2016

decade, accelerating the first product approvals, as shown in

15

1000

2015

Gene-editing clinical trials could triple by the end of theUsing Gene Editing (Bars)•

Number Of Active Trials

1200

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Biomedtracker, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

(Dash)

and will expand access to the liver, eye, central nervous

2021

more cost-effective and easier to manufacture and scale

Editing Product Approvals

Ra
r

e

patient’s cells inside the body. In-vivo gene editing should be

Projected Number Of GeneDi
sesufficient. More versatile, an in-vivo approach modifies a

0

2020

cells outside the body and then transplanting them back is

25

2019

For some diseases, an ex-vivo approach modifying a patient's

In Vivo

50

2018

•

Ex Vivo75

2017

neurology, oncology, ophthalmology, among others.

Gene-Editing Trials by Disease Area (Year-End 2022)
100

eu
ro
lo
gy
O
M
nc
et
ol
ab
og
ol
y
ic
/D
ia
be
O
te
pt
s
ha
lm
ol
og
y
He
m
at
ol
M
og
us
y
cu
lo
sk
el
et
al
In
fe
ct
io
us
Re
sp
ira
to
ry
Im
m
un
ol
Ca
og
rd
y
io
va
sc
ul
ar
De
rm
at
ol
og
y

Gene editing-based therapies are in the clinic for rare diseases,

PROTEINase

Number Of Active Trials

could stop disease at its source.
•

RNA

DNA

Gene editing—the ability to modify, insert, or delete genes—

N•BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES

80

Gene-Editing Therapies Could Command Premium Pricing
DNA

Gene editing therapies could command a median price of ~$2.5 million dollars, and much more for certain indications. Indeed, a

RNA

PROTEIN

recently approved gene therapy for Hemophilia B costs $3.5 million per dose. ARK’s base case forecast for gene editing revenue
is ~$30 billion, though approvals for diseases like Type 1 diabetes could scale the category to $60 billion by 2030.

Gene Editing Revenue Projections*

Lifetime Direct Cost ofTreatment for Hereditary Disorders$28,500,000$30,000,000$25,000,000$20,000,000$15,000,000$10,000,000$5,000,000$5,780,000$2,363,641$1,352,736

a
He
m
op
hi
li

II
Ty
pe
ar
id
os
is

M
uc
op
ol
ys
ac
ch

He
r

ed
ita

ry

Si
ck
le

Ce

An
gi
oe
de
m
a

ll

$-

Gene Editing Annual Revenue (Billions)

Base

High

$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2024

2027

2030

*Forecast assumes that the annual direct cost associated with treating these diseases is between $15,000- $34,000 and the age range of patients is 20 - 50 years. Payers may consider indirect costs, such as quality of life and/or lost labor,
which could drive reimbursement higher. To arrive at the total cost of treatment, we average annual direct costs of treatment by the years treated. For a potential cure we assume a median of the approved drugs. Sources: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2023. Irvine, A. 2019. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any
particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES

81

RNA-Based Therapeutics Are Gaining Traction
RNA

DNA

RNA-based medicines alter the structure, function, quantity, or localization of RNA and/or other molecules. This class of

PROTEIN

medicine can treat ”undruggable” targets. While traditional small molecule therapies target the active binding site of aprotein, only 14% of proteins have such sites. RNA-based medicines could help close this gap.1
During the past 20 years, the number of annual RNA patent grants has increased 10-fold and the number of RNAbased therapies in clinical pipelines has more than quintupled to ~500.

Clinical Pipeline of RNA-Based Therapies Over Time

1,000

20
20

20
15

20
10

20
05

20
00

19
95

0

500
400
300
200
100
0
20
20

2,000

Phase 3

20
15

3,000

Phase 2

20
10

4,000

Phase 1

20
05

5,000

Preclinical

20
00

6,000

600

19
95

7,000

RNA-Based Therapies By Clinical Stage

8,000

19
90

Number of Patents Granted per YearRNA Technology Patents Granted Over Time

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Clarivate, data as of 01/17/23; Biomedtracker, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES82

RNA-Based Therapeutics Should Lower Costs and Improve Time To Market
Traditional clinical development costs, including the cost of failures, have averaged $2 billion over ten years, before any
commercialization costs. Thanks to recent multiomic breakthroughs like next generation sequencing, CRISPR gene editing, andDNA

artificial intelligence, drug failure rates and commercialization timelines are likely to decline.

RNA

PROTEIN

Compared to other modalities, the production of RNA-based therapeutics is faster and less expensive. RNA-based development,
including failures, averages five years and costs $1.25 billion, compared to small molecule and antibody trials that average 10
years and cost more than $2 billion.

Clinical Development Time by Therapeutic Class*

Cost of Clinical Development25$3,500$3,00020
Millions$2,500

Years

15

10

$2,000$1,500$1,000
$500

5

$0

0

Antibody

Small Molecule

RNA-Based

Any

RNA-Based*This is a box and whisker plot used to display data that includes error bars. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Wouters, O. et al. 2020; Brown, D. et al. 2021; Lindeborg, R. et al. 2021. Forecasts are inherently limited andcannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not Indicative of future results.

83I G I D E A S 2 0 2 3 : P R E C I S I O N T H E R A P I E S
B83

Targeted Protein Degraders (TPD) Could Treat Many Diseases
disease-causing misfolded proteins. TPDs have doubled the number of druggable$5,00040$4,00030$3,00020$2,00010$1,000

0

$2018

2019

2020

2021

Number of Clinical Trials$6,000(Millions)50

Capital Invested

Number of Licensing Deals$7,000

2017

100
50

20
20

20
18

20
16

20
14

20
12

20
10

0

Total Invested

60

2016

150

20
00

Cumulative Investment in the Targeted Protein Degrader SpaceFirst TPD complex
crystal structure

20
08

TPD licensing deals has increased more than 10-fold to 50+.

200

20
06

fold. According to our research, 88% of TPD trials are in early phases, and the number of

250

20
04

During the period of 2015-2020, the number of TPD patent publications increased ten-

300

20
02

Number of Publications

sometimes in combination with cell therapies.

2015

PROTEIN

TPD Patent Publication

proteins and are in the clinic for oncology, autoimmune, and fibrotic diseases,

Licensing Deals

RNA

DNA

Targeted Protein Degraders (TPDs) leverage the body’s system to lower the number ofMaturity of TPD Clinical Landscape

25
20
15
10
5
0
IND-e

Phase 1

Phase 2Phase 3

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Koppal, T. 2020; Nasir, M. et al. 2022; Biomedtracker, data as of 01/17/23; Samarasinghe, K. et al. 2021; Békés, M. et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: PRECISION THERAPIES84

TPD Therapy Could Address The “Undruggable" Proteome
DNA

RNA

PROTEIN

More Than Half of Protein Targets Under Investigation Are TPD-Enabled

Targets Under Investigation (TPD-Enabled)
Targets Under Investigation (Non-TPD-Enabled)
Targets With An Approved Drug (Not TPDs)
Remaining Targets (n=24,000)

Targeted Protein Degraders (TPDs) have more thandoubled the number of druggable human protein targets.
One TPD molecule can degrade hundreds of target
proteins (iterative mechanism of action) over its lifetime,
whereas traditional small molecule inhibitors can target

Benefit of Therapeutic Modality

Small-Molecule Inhibitors

TPDs

only one. As a result, TPD's have a very attractive safety

Potential to Treat Undruggable Proteins

No

Yes

profile relative to small molecules.

Iterative Mechanism of Action

No

Yes

Orally Bioavailable

Yes

Yes

Ease of Manufacturing

Yes

Yes

Preclinical Validation

Yes

Yes

Clinical Validation

Approved

Phase 2

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Biomedtracker, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

85I G I D EARKIdeas
B
A S Big
202
3 : P2023
RECISION THERAPIES

85

Innovation Is Key To The Efficiency Of Research And Development
In our view, innovative precision therapies are undervalued, with a more attractive risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) relative to

DNA

RNA

PROTEINlarge pharmaceutical companies that focus on traditional therapeutics like small molecules. Based on our research, the total
enterprise value of innovative precision therapy companies should appreciate at a 29% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
from ~$500 billion in 2022 to ~$3 trillion by 2030.

Innovative Drugs Offer More Attractive Risk-Adjusted NPVs
Probability (Innovative)

7%

Large Cap Small
Molecule

6%
5%

Innovative (Average)

4%

Targeted Protein
Degraders

3%
2%

Ex Vivo Gene Editing

1%

In Vivo Gene Editing
$8
,0
00
$9
,0
00
$1
0,
00
0
$1
1 ,0
00
$1
2,0
00

,0
00

$7

,0
00

$6

$4
,0
00
$5
,0
00

$3

$1
,0
00
$2
,0
00

,0
00

0%
$0

Percentage of Candidate Drugs in Pipeline

Probability (Conventional)

The Market Ascribes Little Value to Innovative Therapeutics
Relative to Traditional MedicinesrNPV of Sales (Millions)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

Market-Implied rNPV/Program (Millions)* ”Progress-normalized” refers to the average completeness (preclinical – registration) of the clinicalprograms in the sampled datasets*Progress-Normalized. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Biomedtracker, data as of 01/17/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

86

Molecular Cancer
Diagnostics
Transforming Biological Signals Into Better Patient Outcomes
Next-generation sequencing (NGS) costs have collapsed, making moleculardiagnostic tests more feasible and turbocharging our understanding of tumor
biology.1
By leveraging artificial intelligence (AI), cancer diagnostics labs have created lessinvasive tests like liquid biopsies to supplement tissue biopsies.2
As proof of clinical utility accumulates, ARK estimates that the total addressable
market (TAM) for molecular cancer diagnostic tests in the US is ~$95 billion, its
revenue increasing more than 20% annually during the next five to ten years,
from ~$5 billion in 2022 to $24 billion in 2030. Moreover, the collective enterprisevalue of molecular cancer testing companies should expand at a similar ratefrom ~$30 billion in 2022 to $145 billion in 2030.
Research by Simon Barnett, Director of Research, Life Sciences
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Wetterstrand, K. 2021; [2] ASCO, data as of 01/19/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

87

Cancer Could Be The Next Victory In Public Health
Since 1990, while the age-adjusted mortality rate for cardiovascular diseases has dropped more than 50%,1 that for cancer has declined only ~19%.2 Alongside improved
therapies, emerging diagnostics could result in a dramatic drop in cancer mortality.
The need to focus on cancer has never been greater, especially because the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted cancer care, causing patients to miss more than 30
million screenings and ~60,000 diagnoses.3

COVID’s Impact on Global Oncology Practices3

Progress Fighting Cardiovascular Diseases and Cancer1,2Cancer Screening (US)CancerOncology Visits (Global)

20%
-19%

-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

-58%

-60%
-70%
1991

1994

1997

2000 2003 2006 2009

2012

2015

2018

5%

10%
Relative to Pre-Pandemic-10%

Percent Change in Volume0%(Annual Deaths / 100,000 People)

Age-Adjusted Change in Mortality Rate

Cardiovascular Disease(s)

0%
-10%
-20%

-26%

-30%
-40%
-50%
Pre-Pandemic 3/1/20

6/1/209/1/2012/1/20

3/1/21

6/1/21

9/1/21

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Mensah, G. et al. 2017; [2] Roser, M. et al. 2019; [3] IQVIA Inc 2022. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or
hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

88

Diagnostics + Therapeutics Should Reduce Cancer Mortality
We believe next-generation diagnostics and therapeutics will work together

Molecular testing is a prerequisite for precision therapy. The tests surface

to lower cancer mortality.1

tumor-specific mutations, also called biomarkers, which point oncologists

Advanced cancers account for only 17% of new diagnoses each year but 55%
of deaths after five years. The importance of early detection is clear.2

towards specific treatments.
Evidence suggests that biomarkers improve trial success rates,3 so mostoncology clinical trials now include molecular biomarkers.4

Advanced Cancers Account For The Minority of New Cases
But Cause the Majority of Deaths2

The Majority of Oncology Clinical Trials
Use Molecular Biomarkers4
3 Biomarkers

Distant (Metastatic)
17% of Cases

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

0
2015

70%

2013

60%

2014

Percentage of Diagnoses Per Year

50%

2012

40%

2011

30%

2010

20%

500
2009

10%

1000

2008

0%

1500

2007

28% of Deaths

2000

2006

Regional
24% of Cases

2005

17% of Deaths0%0 Biomarkers

2500

2004

30%

10%

1 Biomarker

3000

2003

Localized
59% of Cases

2002

55% of Deaths

20%

2 Biomarkers

3500

2001

40%

2000

50%

Clinical Trial Starts

Deaths After Five Years

Percentage of Cancer

60%

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Mensah, G. et al. 2018; [2] National Cancer Institute, data as of 01/19/23; [3] Parker, J. et al. 2021; [4] Vadas, A. et al. 2021. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

89

The Molecular Cancer Testing Market Segments By “Tumor Burden”
Molecular cancer tests examine biological samples like blood or tissue and use techniques like next-generation sequencing to transform biological information into digital information.
Among the categories of molecular cancer testing are: (1) hereditary cancer testing, (2) screening, (3) prognostics, (4) minimal residual disease (MRD), and (5) therapy selection.
Tumor burden is a rough proxy for cancer’s severity, typically quantified by the amount of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in a patient’s bloodstream. Using this framework, we segment thecancer testing market, as shown below.

The Molecular Testing Landscape is Governed by a Patient's Tumor Burden

Tumor Burden (ctDNA Fraction) →Primary

Surgery and First-Line Treatment

Remission

RelapseThird-Line Treatment
3. Prognostics

5. Therapy Selection Testing

1. Hereditary Cancer Testing

Second-Line Treatment

4. MRD Testing

4. Repeat MRD Testing (Recurrence
Monitoring)
4. Long-Term Recurrence Monitoring

2. Cancer Screening

Time →
This image is not drawn to scale. The relationship between tumor burden and time is meant to be purely illustrative, not representative of a specific data set.
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

90

Multiomics Is Powering Screening Tests For The Deadliest Cancers
Non-invasive tests like Cologuard are supplementing standard-of-care

Blood-Based Tests Could Improve
Lung Cancer Screening3

extremely accurate ctDNA sequencing methods struggle to find cancers
until they are 1-2 cm in diameter, as shown below.1 Multiomics tests
incorporating other circulating cancer signals—like DNA fragmentation
patterns—enable better performance.

Lung

Colorectal

Breast7

Sensitivity [cm]Tumor Diameter at 80% Detection

DNA Mutations Alone are Insufficient to Screen for Most
Stage 1 Cancers Economically1

Local
80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000LD-CT Only

LD-CT = Low-Dose CT Scan

65

Regional

LD-CT + Liquid
Biops yCancer3(Thousands $)Cancers Detected Through Screening

mutations alone does not detect early-stage cancers reliably.1 Even

Average Cost to Detect Lung Cancer

screening technologies, a trend that should accelerate. Sequencing ctDNA

Blood-Based Tests Could Lower the
Average Cost of Detecting Lung

$18
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$LD-CT Only

LD-CT + Liquid
Biops yBlood-based testing should improve patient adherence to cancer screening

43

guidelines.2 Powerful tests focused on lethal cancers, like pancreatic, are likely to2

proliferate during the next five years.

1
0
1E-02

1E-03

1E-04

1E-05

Sequencing Error Rate**1E-03 means 1-in-1,000 bases is incorrect.

1E-06

1E-07

With currently available data, blood-based screening should increase early-stagelung cancer detection by six-fold.3,4 Improved cancer detection, in turn, should
lower average detection costs.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Avanzini, S. et al. 2020; [2] Bokhorst, L. et al. 2015; [3] Mathios, D. et al. 2021; [4] Zhao, Y. et al. 2011. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes
only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

91

Multicancer Earlier Detection (MCED) Tests Are Cancer Moonshots
Unlike single-cancer tests, multi-cancer earlier detection (MCED) tests detect

The cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) for an MCED test has fallen >90% over the past

many forms of cancer from a single blood draw. Based on current performance

five years, resulting in positive gross profit at a $500 reimbursement price.

data, payors could reimburse MCED tests at $500 for adults aged 45-75.1

Test designs are becoming more efficient, giving MCED companies the ability to

A prerequisite for broad adoption, national reimbursement could take nearly a

add more sensitivity and/or profitability for each incremental dollar in cost. In

decade.2 At full adoption today, MCED could reduce cancer mortality by 15%.

our view, vendors will opt for the former.

Already Profitable, MCED Tests
Are Becoming More Cost-Efficient$500 MCED Tests Could Be Cost-Effective
For Adults Aged 45—75

$150
$50
30

40

50

Age at First Screening60

70$500 Reimbursement Threshold

2024 Estimate$10,000
Sensitivity (Stages I-III)$250$(50) 20

Historical$50K / Life-Year Reimbursement Threshold
Unit COGS Required to Reach 50% Test

$500 Test$350(Thousands)

Incremental Cost Per Life-Year Added$2,000 Test

$1,000
$100
$10
$1
2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Rowland, T. et al. 2022; [2] Grail, data as of 01/19/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

92

Blood-Based Testing Could Revolutionize The Treatment Of Early-Stage Cancer
Historically, oncologists have used a metric called minimal residual disease (MRD)—the amount of cancer remaining in the body after treatment—to guide treatment for
liquid tumors like multiple myeloma.1 Solid tumors, which constitute 90% of annual diagnoses, require deep, expensive sequencing, making solid tumor MRD
testing prohibitively expensive, until recently.2
Thanks to less expensive sequencing techniques, oncologists now test solid tumor patients not only with imaging but also with molecular MRD. ctDNA can predict relapsefree survival, helping patients avoid unnecessary chemotherapy.3,4

ctDNA-Guided Cancer Care Achieved Comparable Survival
Rates While Halving The Percent of Patients On Chemo4

ctDNA Status is an Excellent Predictor of Relapse-Free
Survival for Multiple Cancers3

With Relapse-Free Survival After 24 Months

ctDNA Negative

100%

100%

80%

80%

Fraction of Patients (%)

Relapse-Free Survival (%)

Fraction of Patients with

ctDNA Positive

60%
40%
20%
0%
0

5

10

15

20

25

Months Since Randomization

30

35

40

Receiving Chemotherapy

94%

92%

60%
40%
20%

28%
15%

0%
Standard-of-Care

ctDNA-Guided

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Rawstron, A. et al. 2015; [2] Haque, I. et al. 2018; [3] Natera, Inc, data as of 01/19/23; [4] Tie, J. et al. 2022. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice
or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

93

Highly Sensitive Technologies Can Detect The Recurrence Of Cancer
Following successful treatment, ctDNA levels can drop far below the limit at

New MRD tests can measure thousands of ctDNA mutations, increasing the sensitivity

which MRD tests can detect cancer (LoD: Limit of Detection)—roughly 10of detection by an order of magnitude3 and helping to assess tumor reactions to

ctDNA parts per million molecules.1

treatment.4

LoD is an obstacle more common in early-stage tumors or in cancers like

While broad based MRD panels have been prohibitively expensive, competition isbreast that shed little ctDNA.2

driving down the cost of DNA sequencing dramatically, increasing access to highly
sensitive MRD tests.5

MRD Panels Will Broaden and Improve as NGS Costs Decline3

Contemporary MRD tests can assess response to therapy.

Below a test’s Limit of Detection (LoD), the probabilityof false negatives increases.

Highly-sensitive MRD tests can spot relapses
below traditional limits of detection.

Limit of Detection

Detection Probability (%)*

Tumor Burden (ctDNA Fraction) àSurgery100%

10,000 Mutations
0%
10^-2

10 Mutations
10^-3

10^-4

10^-5

Tumor Fraction**

Time à

1 Mutation
10^-6*At 2,000 genome equivalents of DNA in the blood sample;**For example, 10^-4 means 100 ctDNA parts-per-million (PPM)

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Personalis Inc, data as of 01/19/23; [2] Avanzini, S. et al. 2020; [3] Zviran, A. et al. 2020; [4] Abbosh, C. et al. 2017; [5] Rusinek, I. et al. 2022. For informational purposes only and should not
be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

94

Therapy Selection Tests Add More Content And Sample Types
Designed for patients with more advanced cancers, therapy selection tests surface cancers' molecular drivers. While more mature than other molecular diagnostics, therapy
selection tests are adding more sample types like blood,1 more genes, and more analytes like RNA, increasing patient access and the probability of matches to targeted
therapies or clinical trials.2,3 For most solid tumor indications, therapy selection is likely to become standard of care, with adoption potentially doubling from 25% in 2022 tomore than 50% in 2030.

Blood-Based Therapy Selection Is An
Alternative for Patients with Insufficient Tissue1
Passing Filter

Failing Filter

Comprehensive Therapy Selection
Tests Surface More Actionable

RNA Sequencing Discovers 29% More
Fusion Targets Than DNA

Information for Patients

Sequencing Alone3

Clinically Actionable Biomarker

RNA Alone

Shared

5%
60%

80%
60%
73%

40%
20%

DNA Alone27%

RescuedStill Below Filter

0%

Fraction of Patients

Fraction of Patients

100%

Clinical Trial Eligibility

29%

50%
40%
30%
20%
66%

10%
0%

Passing filter means a patient has sufficient, high-quality
tumor tissue for molecular testing.

Small Panel

Comprehensive PanelRNA fusions are a class of druggable targets forcancer therapies.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. [1] Mackay, M. et al. 2022; [2] Raval, A. 2022; [3] Michuda, J. et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: MOLECULAR CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

95

Sizing The Opportunity
Cancer has galvanized demand for powerful diagnostics and therapeutics. Thanks to rapid cost declines, particularly in sequencing, molecular methods for screening,
diagnosing, risk-stratifying, and monitoring cancer are translating into clinical practice.
According to our research, the total addressable market (TAM) for molecular diagnostics is roughly $95 billion in the United States alone. Molecular cancer diagnostics
revenues are likely to grow faster than 20% per year, from ~$5 billion today to more than $24 billion in 2030. Collectively, the enterprise value for molecular cancer testing
companies should compound at a similar rate, growing from ~$30 billion in 2022 to $145 billion in 2030.

Molecular Oncology Testing Revenue Should
Grow >20% Annually Through 2030 and Beyond
Hereditary Cancer Testing
Molecular Prognostics
Therapy Selection$95B Total
Addressable
Market (US)Cancer Screening
Minimal Residual Disease~$24B in 2030~$5B in 2022

Annual Revenue (Millions)$30,000$25,000$20,000$15,000$10,000$5,000$2022

2030

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

96

Electric Vehicles
Defying The Skeptics With Exponential Growth
Investors once questioned whether the future was electric. Demand for EVs has
scaled despite a pause in cost declines caused by commodity price shocks. Now
investors doubt whether or not the growth will be exponential.
The debate around electric vehicles has shifted from demand to supply. Basedon Wright’s Law, ARK forecasts that EV prices will decline and sales will increase
more than 7-fold, or 50% at an annual rate, from roughly 7.8 million in 2022 to 60
million units in 2027.
The biggest downside risks to our forecast are supply constraints that could
continue to impact pricing and the speed at which traditional automakers
transition to electric vehicles.

Research by Sam Korus, Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

97

Electric Vehicle Sales Continue To Take Share
Growth In Global Vehicle Sales*
Gas-Powered

Electric

120%

112%

Percent Change Year Over Year

100%
80%

69%

62%

60%
40%

33%
18%

20%

1.7%
0%
-1.2%

-7.2%

-20%

-6.9%
-16.0%

-40%
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

*The chart’s “Gas-Powered” category includes hybrid vehicles. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

98

Global Automakers Have Increased Investment Plans For EVs And Batteries MoreThan 10-Fold Over The Past Four Years
At a historical auto industry capital efficiency of $14,000 per unit capacity, the annualized ~$600 billion earmarked for EV investment would equate to 43 million
units in annual production per year. If all automakers were to realize the capital efficiency associated with EVs, $600 billion would accommodate 86 million units,
approaching total auto production today.

Global Automaker Investment Plans for Electric Vehicles
and Batteries Over The Next Ten Years
EV Investment

Annual EV Production Capacity100

EV and Battery Investment

80
Units (Millions)$1,200$1,000Billions

86

90$1,400

$800
$600

70
60
50

43

40
30

$400

20

$200

10

$0

2018

2021

2022

$14,000$7,000

Cost Per Unit of Production Capacity
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Lienert, P. 2022; Lienert, P. et al. 2021; Lienert, P. 2018; White, J. et al. 2017. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

99

Wright’s Law Has Modeled The Decline In Battery Costs Accurately And Points To
LFP* Cells As The Dominant Chemistry
The largest cost component of an EV is its battery, the declining cost of which will be critical to reaching sticker-price parity with gas-powered vehicles. According toWright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced, battery cell costs will fall by 28%. Despite the recent commodity spikes and associatedbattery price increases, this relationship should persist over the long term. At a lower production base, lithium iron phosphate cells could accelerate the cost andprice declines.

Battery Cost Decline
Nickel Cells

LFP Cells

Nickel Forecast

EV Units Necessary for a
Cumulative Doubling of Production

LFP Forecast
35,000,000$10,000

30,000,000
25,000,000
Units

$/kWh

$1,000$100

20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000$10

5,000,000$1
100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

1,000,000,000 10,000,000,000

LFP

NickelCumulative kWh*Lithium iron phosphate (LFP). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

100

Wright’s Law Points To Faster EV
Charging Rates

EV Charging Rates
Historical Data Points

2027 Forecast

100.0

ARK believes that an EV charging rate is a good proxy for overall

2022: 15 min to

performance, capturing the efficiency, range, and power

charge 200 miles

capabilities of the system. In the past four years, charging rates
have improved nearly three-fold, from 40 to 15 minutes for 200
four-fold to 4 minutes. As EV charging reaches an acceptablerate, ARK expects the industry to optimize for other features
like autonomous driving, safety, and entertainment.

Miles of Range/Minute

miles of range. During the next five years, it could drop nearly

10.0

2021

2027 Forecast:
4 minutes tocharge 200
miles

2018

1999
1.0

0.1

1915

0.0
1

100

10,0001,000,000

100,000,000

Cumulative Electric Vehicle Production
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

101

EVs Have Hit Price-Parity With Gas-Powered Vehicles
Transaction PriceModels Of Light-Duty Electric Vehicles In The US
With Range >300 Miles*

New-Vehicle Transaction Price (Average)
Least Expensive EV With >300 Mile Range$145,000

Tesla

Number of Light-Duty Models$100,000$85,000$70,000$55,000
Tesla Model 3$25,000
2013

2014

Lucid

Kia

Hyundai

Mercedes

GMC

2015

2020

2021

2022

12
10
8
6
4
2

Forecast Future
Tesla Model
2012

Rivian14$115,000$40,000

BMW

16

No EVswith >300
Mile Range$130,000

Ford

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

0
2016

2017

2018

2019

*Model Year 2016-2022. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Kane, M. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

102

Battery Cost Declines Should Continue To Drive Exponential Growth in EV Sales
Electric Vehicle Revenue Market Share Vs. Prices
2021 Global Revenue Share of All Autos Addressable by MSRP

Global EV Market Share by Average MSRP

90%
Light Teal: Global EV Market Share

Dark Teal: Global Revenue Share Addressable by MSRP

100%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%

EV Price 2027
(ARK Model)

30%
20%
2021

10%

2016

2012

0%
$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

2021 $ Thousands
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

$0BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

103

Although EV Sales Have Scaled Exponentially, The Consensus Forecast Is Linear
In 2017, ARK forecasted that global sales of EV with 200+ mile range would approach ~17 million in 2022. A global pandemic, supply challenges, commodity pricespikes, and the consumer preference for longer ranges limited unit sales to ~8 million, still 4-times the consensus estimate in 2017. In other words, ARK’s forecast wasoff by ~45%, but the consensus estimate was off by ~400%. Now, look at the difference in forecasts for 2027. Will EVs be 25% or 65% of total auto sales?

Global EV Adoption Curve In 2017

Global EV Adoption Curve In 2022
Historical EV Sales Prior To 2023

Historical EV Sales Prior to 2018
EV Sales From 2019 Through 2022
Consensus Forecast In 2017
Linear (Trajectory)

EV Adoption Forecast From 2023 Through 2027
2027 Consensus Forecast
Linear (Trajectory)

9

70
60

7

Units (Millions)

6
5
4
3

50
40
30
20

2

10

1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
2…
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27

Units (Millions)8

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Irle, R. 2022; Bloomberg Finance L.P., data as of 01/19/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

104

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles Are Likely To Lose Significant Share
By 2027, auto buyers probably will conclude that used cars or new EVs will make more economic sense than new ICE vehicles. If so, the drop in ICE vehicle sales could set inmotion a death spiral for many incumbent automakers. In response to falling prices, consumers could delay EV purchases or purchase used cars at the expense of new
internal combustion cars.

Auto SalesEV Unit Sales

ICE Unit Sales

2018

2019

ICE Units at Risk

100
90

Units (Millions)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2015

2016

2017

2020

2021

2022

2027 Forecast

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Irle, R. 2022; S&P Global, data as of 12/29/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice
or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

105

Planned Investment Levels Should Support A ~7-Fold Increase In EV Production
From 7.8 Million To 60 Million During The Next Five Years
If ARK’s forecasts for 2027 are correct, EV unit sales will scale at 50% during the next five years, from roughly 7.8 units million in 2022 to 60 million units in 2027.

Global Battery Electric Vehicle Sales
70
60

Units (Millions)50
40
50% Unit CAGR*
30
20
10
0
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2027
Forecast*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Irle, R. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

106

Autonomous Ride-Hail
Scaling Toward Widespread Commercial Adoption
Today, autonomous ride-hail services delight riders across ~15 cities
internationally* and should scale into widespread commercial adoption
within the next ten years.
Autonomous technology should reduce the cost of mobility to ~12% the
average cost of human-driven ride-hail service today.
ARK’s research suggests that global autonomous ride-hail platforms will
create $14 trillion in enterprise value, based on $4 trillion in revenue during
the next five years.

Research by Tasha Keeney, CFA, Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies*This number includes both commercial and non-commercial services operating at the end of 2022. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational
purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

107

Autonomous Ride-Hail Is Likely To Increase Access to Convenient Point-to-Point
Transportation
Adjusted for inflation, the cost of owning and operating a personal car has not changed since the Model T rolled off the first assembly line nearly 100 years ago. ARK
estimates that autonomous taxis at scale could cost consumers as little as $0.25 per mile, spurring widespread adoption.

Cost Per Mile of a Personally Owned Vehicle(2020 $)

$1.70

$0.70

$0.70

$0.70
$0.25

1871

1934

1950

2016

2030
2021

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

108

Ride-Hail Is Likely To Create An $11 Trillion Addressable Market
At $0.25 cents per mile, autonomous could serve a wider population than does human-driven ride-hail today. In the meantime, ARK expects significant demand generation
at higher price points based on the value that consumers place on their time.

Ride-Hail Addressable Market*
$4.50
$4B

$4.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.10

0.60

0.50

0.25

charging $2-$4 per mile

$3.50
$30B

$3.00
Price Per Mile

$34B: Existing addressable market for
ride-hail companies in Western markets$1T: Addressable ridership in Western markets at ~$1

$2.50
$100B

$2.00
$1.50

$2.4T: Non-commuting miles in higher income
countries priced at ~$0.60 per mile
$2.75T: Long tail of demand priced at human driven ride-hailprices of $0.50 per mile in lower income countries

$1.00
$0.50
$0.00

0

1

5

10

Miles (Trillions)$5T: Low cost, accessible autonomous
travel at $0.25 per mile30*$11 trillion is the addressable market, not the revenue we expect in 2030, as we do not expect autonomy will penetrate all addressable miles. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot
be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

109

Autonomous Taxis Are A Reality Today
The first players to scale should become the market leaders.

Number of Cars Collecting Data Today*

Robotaxi Commercial Launch Year
Actual

1,000

Waymo
Actual300

CruiseCompany Estimate

Baidu

500
Company Estimate

Pony

300
ARK Estimate

Tesla

2,700,000
Company Estimate

Xpeng

270,000

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

*These cars can collect data for autonomous driving, though all the vehicles are not yet "robotaxi ready” in the the case of Xpeng. Estimates are based on publicly available data and ARK research. Numbers are rounded and may not be
exact. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Welch, D. 2022; Bellan, R. 2022; Zhang, P. 2022; Irle, R. 2022; Lee, T. 2022; Wessling, B. 2022; TechNode 2022; TechNode 2022; Pandaily 2022; Bellan , R. et al. 2022. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of
future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

110

Based On The Shift To Autonomous Electric Vehicles, Oil Demand Could Decline 30% By 2030
Based on ARK’s electric vehicle forecast, oil demand is peaking and could decline by 5%, or 5 million barrels per day, by 2030 and 10% by 2035. Adding the adoptionof autonomous vehicles, the capacity utilization of which could be 10x higher than that for personally-owned cars, oil demand could decline 30 million barrels per
day by 2035.

Global Oil Demand
BP (mb/d)

ARK (mb/d) Based on EV Demand Forecast

IEA (mb/d)

ARK (mb/d) Based on EV and Autonomous Demand Forecast

120

Oil Demand (mb/d)

100
80
60
40
20
0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Cozzi, L. et al. 2022; BP p.l.c. 2022; IEA 2021. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice ora recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

111

Global Auto Sales May Have Peaked In 2017

Global Annual Auto Sales

In 2017, ARK predicted that human-driven ride-hail and autonomous

2017 ARK Estimate

2017 Consensus

2022 Consensus

Actual2022 ARK Estimate

taxis would reduce overall auto sales by ~24 million relative toconsensus expectations for 2025.

120
110

Since 2017, auto sales have declined more than we predicted, largely
because of the supply chain crisis associated with COVID-19.

human-driven cars, lowering the number of vehicles on the roaddespite higher numbers of passengers and per capita miles.
As autonomous taxis begin to dominate urban transit, ARK now
expects unit volumes to be ~26 million and ~29 million units lower

Units (Millions)

Autonomous vehicles should have higher utilization rates than

100
90
80

~29 million
units lower

70
60

than today’s consensus expectations for 2025 and 2027, respectively.
50
40
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. S&P Global, data as of 12/28/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

112

Autonomous Taxis Could Eliminate~60% Of Short-Haul Airline Flights

Robotaxi Versus Short-Haul Airline Flight Cost and Time Savings*
250%

With prices ranging from $4 to $0.25 per mile, robotaxis could bea more attractive option than ~60% of short-haul airline flights,

200%

based on time and cost savings including transport to and from

40% of Flights:
Robotaxis Not
Competitive

airports.

150%

Short-haul flights at risk currently generate ~$100 billion, or 20%,

Priced at $0.50 per mile, a robotaxi service would be lessexpensive than more than half of short-haul airline flights. At$0.25 per mile, robotaxi services could be more cost effective

Change in Timeof all airline revenues globally.
100%
45% of Flights:
Robotaxis A Good
Alternative

50%

than 95% of short-haul journeys.

0%
-150%

-100%

The cost and time advantages should be more dramatic forgroup travel. An autonomous taxi for 2-3 people could be abetter option than 75%-84% of short-haul airline flights.

15% of Flights:
Robotaxis A
No Brainer

-50%

0%

50%

100%

-50%

-100%
Change in Cost*Single Person Short-Haul Flights / $0.25 Per Mile Robotaxi. This graphical analysis includes the increase in traffic ARK expects with robotaxis as well as the drive time associated with flying. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC,
2023. Google Fligths, data as of 01/20/23; Miller, A. 2021; Federal Highway Administration 2020; Federal Highway Administration, data as of 12/28/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes
only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

113

Autonomous Taxis Could Generate $4 Trillion In Revenue In 2027
Autonomous Platform Providers
Revenue, Earnings,** and Enterprise Value Estimates
2027

2030

$30

$28 = 15X EBIT

Trillions

$25

$20

$14 = 19X EBIT

$15

$9*

$10

$5

$4
$1.8

$0.75
$0
Revenue

EBITEnterprise Value*Note that $9 trillion is the expected revenue in 2030 based on our adoption curve, as opposed to the entire addressable market that we are estimating will be worth $11 trillion. **Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS RIDE-HAIL

114

Autonomous Platform Providers Could Dominate The Enterprise Value Generated By
Autonomous Mobility In 2027
2027 Enterprise Value Estimate$16,000$16,000$14,000$14,000$12,000$12,000$10,000$10,000

Billions

Billions

Current Enterprise Value*$8,000$6,000$14,100$8,000$6,000$4,000$4,000$2,705$2,000$1,900$2,000$130$0Ride-hail & Autonomous$93
Automakers

$300
$0

Car Rental

Startups
Last Year Values:$300B$4,100B$100B

5 Year CAGR:

Autonomous

Autonomous Electric

Platform Provider

Auto Manufacturers

137%

-7%

Fleet Owners
99%*January 2023 Enterprise Value. Discounted private valuations by 60% in current enterprise value for autonomous startups. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. CapitalIQ, data as of 01/23/23; Kuzmichenok, V. 2021; PitchBook,
data as of 01/23/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past
performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

115

Autonomous
Logistics
Reshaping The Global Supply Chain
Autonomous logistics—including trucks, drones, and robots—should lower delivery costs and increase convenience.
Based on our updated assumptions on pricing, ARK estimates that
autonomous logistics revenue could scale from nearly zero today
to $1-2 trillion by 2030. Autonomous delivery charges could range
from $0.20 to $10 per trip.

Research by Tasha Keeney, CFA, Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

116

Autonomous Vehicles That Roll And Fly Could Lower Costs Across The Supply Chain
According to our research, autonomous vehicles should operate at higher utilization rates than human-in-the-loop systems, creating more cost-effective delivery
systems for small volumes in the last mile.

Truckload Delivery Cost
(Per Ton-Mile)

Local Batch Delivery Cost
(Per Trip)

Local Small Item Delivery Cost
(Per Trip)
$5.40

~2X
~6.5X

$0.07

~22X

$2.40

$0.03

$0.25

$0.40
Human Driven

Autonomous

Human Driven

Rolling Integrated

Diesel Truck

Electric Truck

DeliveryTraffic Robot

Autonomous electric trucks should benefit fromhigher utilization as well as lower maintenanceand labor costs than human-driven diesel trucks.

Rolling robots should enable inexpensive andconvenient delivery, reshaping consumer
shopping habits.

App Delivery

Drone

Autonomous drones are likely to deliver a
substantial share of e-commerce parcels andonline food sales.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, data as of 01/27/23; Kilcarr, S. 2014; AAA 2021; Morrison, R. et al. 2015; Ferguson, D. 2020; DJI, data as of 01/27/23; Chen, B. 2020. Forecasts are inherently
limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

117

Like Autonomous Ride-Hail, Robots And Drones Should Have A Greater Impact In
Countries With High Delivery Fees
Parcel Delivery Fees
(Average)$9.41$8.93 $8.70

Food Delivery Fees*(Average)
$12

$8.29

$10

$7.45

$5 -10

$10

$10

$8
$5.56
$6
$3.48 $3.47

$4
$2

$1.48

Ch
in
a
Es
tim
at
e

Dr
on
e

De
liv
e

ry

In
di
a

or
wa
y

N

ed
en

l

Sw

Br
az
i

Ja
pa
n

m
an
y

al
ia

Ge
r

Au
st
r

It a
ly

US

Fr
an
ce
Ca
na
da

$0.25

$2 -4
$1

$0.80

$0.57

$0.20
$0.40 -$0.25

$0
Do
or
da
sh
&
Am
U
be
az
rE
on
at
W
s(
ho
US
le
)
F
W
oo
al
ds
m
ar
(U
tE
S)
xp
JU
re
ST
ss
EA
(U
T
S)
In
Ta
st
ke
ac
aw
ar
t(
ay
US
.co
)
m
(E
ur
op
e)
JD
(C
hi
M
na
ei
tu
)
an
(C
M
hi
is
na
sfr
Ro
)
e
bo
sh
tD
(C
hi
el
na
iv
Dr
er
)
on
yE
e
st
De
im
liv
at
e
er
y
Es
tim
at
e

$2.21 $2.13
$1.93

$4

*Dotted boarder regions in the right-hand chart show the range of prices for platforms. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Pitney Bowes Inc., data as of 01/27/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

118

Real-Time Autonomous Delivery Could Generate A ~$1-2 Trillion Addressable
Market In 2030
While drone and robot delivery could price profitably at $0.20-$0.40 cents per trip, current fee structures for mail and real-time delivery could support price points
as high as $10 per delivery in the short term.

Addressable Market For Autonomous Delivery of Food and Parcels In 2030*—Markets Segmented by Price Point—

Price Per Trip

$250B: Addressable Market For Parcel$3.50-$10.00 and Food Delivery In High-Cost
Markets at $3.50-10 Per Trip

$500B: Incremental Demand in
High-Cost Markets Based On
Consumer’s Value of Time

$2.00-$2.90$400B: Addressable Market For Parcel and Food
Delivery In Low-Cost Markets at $0.50-0.80 Per Trip

$0.50-$0.80$150B: Additional Demand in Low-Cost Markets
for Autonomous Delivery at $0.20-$0.40 Per Trip

$0.20-$0.40
00

50B

270B

920B

1095

1.5T

Cumulative Number of Delivery Trips*Numbers in graph are rounded. ~$1.2 Trillion is the addressable opportunity, but total revenues / market size by 2030 will depend on penetration rates. Those figures are detailed in later slides. Sources: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past
performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

119

Meal And Parcel Drone Delivery Could Be A Larger Opportunity Than Initial Estimates
Based on higher initial price points, drone delivery fees could total $500 billion for parcels and $200 billion for restaurant meals, ~5X more than ARK previously
estimated, by 2030. Drones could carry more than half the ~$20 trillion in e-commerce and the ~$2 trillion in meals in 2030. The acceleration in growth toward theend of this decade is pointing to super exponential growth.

Food Drone Delivery Fees
(Billions)Parcel Delivery Revenue(Billions)
Human Delivered

Human Delivered

Drone Delivered

Drone Delivered

~17%
~26%
$300

$40

~19%

$400
$250

2022E

2027

$200

$500

$350

~$60

2030

2022

~63%

$200

$200

2027

2030

*Parcel revenue shown is for last-mile delivery only. 2022 Numbers are rounded. Parcel Revenue is estimated using 2021 data from Pitney Bowes and applying a compound annual growth rate that falls within their forecast
range for the next five years. Note that numbers in the graph are rounded and growth rates are calculated off of rounded numbers.. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Pitney Bowes, data as of 01/27/23; Insider
Intelligence, data as of 01/27/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular
security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

120

Online Accounts For Only 6% of Grocery Sales Globally
Interestingly, shoppers in the US pick up online grocery orders 30-40% of the time, a figure that should shrink with convenient, inexpensive robotic delivery.

E-Commerce As A Percent Of Total Grocery Sales(2022)
23%

13%

7%

6%
3%

2%

2%

1%
ra
ge

3%

Gl
ob
al
Av
e

4%

In
di
a

m
an
y
Ge
r

Ta
iw
an

e
Si
ng
ap
or

ed
en
Sw

la
nd
s
et
he
r

N

Fr
an
ce

US

UK

Ja
pa
n

Ko
re
a

So
ut
h

Ch
in
a

4%

Po
la
nd

8%

in
do
ne
s ia

8%

8%

It a
ly

9%

y

10%

Tu
rk
e

13%

Sp
ai
n

14%

*Figures for Japan, Spain, Italy, Poland, Sweden were extrapolated from 2018,2019, and 2021 data, respectively. Global average is extrapolated by weighting countries by their share of global food at home. Sources: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2023. Crisp, A. 2018; Simmons, V. et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

121

Robot Grocery Delivery Could Generate $40 Billion In Fees By 2030
In 2030, e-commerce could capture 35% of the $11 trillion grocery market globally, with robots accounting for more than half of the deliveries.

Robot Grocery Delivery Fees*(Billions)

Online Grocery Revenues(Food Purchases Excluding Delivery Fees, Billions )$40
Traditional Human
Ecommerce
Ecommerce:
Delivered Or Picked Up

Robot Delivered
Ecommerce:
RobotEcommerce
Delivered

64% CAGR

26% CAGR$2,500$500$9$1,600$1,400

$600
2022

2027

2030

2027

2030

*The biggest risk to our robot delivery forecast is the production rate of integrated traffic robots. If auto sales decline as ARK expects over the next ten years, traditional automakers could pivot production to robots and othermachine types faster than otherwise would be the case. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

122

Parcel And Food Drones Are Likely To Generate More Than $700 Billion In Fees By 2030
Google Wing, Amazon Prime Air, Nuro, Meituan, Alibaba, JD, Walmart, and Domino’s Pizza are developing drone and robotic delivery solutions, either in-house or
through partners. In ARK’s view, companies that own and operate the autonomous technology stack will win the lion’s share of the economics.

Real Time Autonomous Delivery Fees*
Parcel Drone

Food Drone

Grocery Robot

$40B

$200B
$9B
$40B
$500B
$300B

2027

2030

*Numbers in the graph are rounded. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

123

Autonomous Trucks Should Become More Cost Effective Than Rail By 2030
Door-to-door trucks should offer significant speed advantages over rail, taking share from intermodal transport. Aurora, Waymo, and Pony.ai are examples of companies
developing autonomous truck platforms.

Cost Per Ton-Mile by Mode
(2030 Forecast)

Log Scale

$1.23

$0.07
$0.04

Air

Human Driven Diesel Truck

Rail

$0.03

$0.03

Autonomous EV Truck

Barge

Note: Numbers in chart are rounded. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2017. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not
be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

124

Autonomous Trucks Could Strand Rail Assets
Globally, more than $1.2 trillion per year is spent on infrastructure, with China accounting for more than half of the total.*

Annual Investment in Rail Infrastructure($ Billions)

$7

d

Sp
ai
n

Tü
rk
iy
e

$8

Sw
itz
er
la
n

$8

y

Fe
de
ra
tio
n

$9
Ita
l

Ko
re
a

$9
ad
a

$13

Ca
n

$21

sia
n

$21

Au
s

ce

$21

Fr
an

$24

Ru
s

ni
te
d

Ki
ng

er
m
an

y

do
m

$24

In
di
a

$28

G

Ja
pa
n

$53

U

U

ni
te
d

St
at
es

Ch
in
a

$112

tr
al
ia

$794

*Latest Annual Data Available for Years 2016-2020. $1.2 trillion is the sum of investment for countries with available data. The global total likely is slightly higher. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Barreto, M. et al.
2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is
not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: AUTONOMOUS LOGISTICS

125

Global Autonomous Delivery Revenue Could Total $1-2 Trillion By 2030*
Autonomous logistics should help companies transport goods to consumers and businesses much more quickly and conveniently, likely changing
buying patterns and reshaping global supply chains.

Real Time Autonomous Delivery Revenue(Billions, Robots And Drones Only)

Autonomous Truck Delivery Revenue(Billions)

$800
$700

$300

2027

$300

2030

2027

2030

*Note that instant delivery revenues are net while autonomous truck revenues are gross. We expect autonomous truck operators to take a cut of gross revenues, much like ride-hail companies do today. Sources: ARK
Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular
security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

126

Robotics And
3D Printing
Promoting A Manufacturing Revolution
Robotics and 3D printing can collapse time from development toproduction, shorten supply chain footprints, reduce waste, andlower costs.
ARK estimates that manufacturing robots and 3D printing could
scale at a ~80% annual rate during the next eight years, from $70
billion in 2022 to ~$9 trillion by 2030.

Research by Sam Korus, Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics
Tasha Keeney, CFA, Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING

127

The Adoption Of Automation Typically Accelerates During Recessions And Crises
The adoption of industrial robots accelerated after the 2002 dot-com bust and again after the 2008-2009 crisis. The responses to the China/US trade
conflict in 2019 and supply chain bottlenecks from 2020 through 2022 have been the same.

Industrial Robot Price Elasticity of Demand
1996-2001

2003-2008

2002,2009, 2019 and 20202010-2018

2021

2022 Forecast

Unit Sales of Industrial Robots

700,000
2022

600,000

2021

500,000
2017

400,000

2018
2020

300,000
200,000
2002

100,000-

2007 2008

1997

1996
$120

1998

1999
$100

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005 2006

$80

$60

2011
2010

2013
2012

2016
2015
2014

2019

2009
$40

$20

Modeled Unit Price Of An Industrial Robot(Thousands)
Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Müller, C. 2022. International Federation of Robotics. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be consideredinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

$0BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING

128

Robot Performance Has Improved 33-Fold In The Past Seven Years
Advances in computer vision and deep learning have increased the performance of robots.

Items Picked and Placed Per Hour
1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Robot

Robot

Robot

Robot

Human

Robot

2015

2016

2018

2019

2022

2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Roach, J. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING

129

Amazon Could Be Approaching An Inflection Point In Robotics
Amazon is producing ~1,000 robots per day. Within the next few years, it could add more robots than employees per year.

Number of Amazon Robots and Employees
RobotsEmployees

1,800
1,608

1,600

Thousands

1,400

1,298

1,200
1,000
798

800
600

520

341

400
200
-

648

566

1

88
2013

117
15
2014

231

154
30
2015

45
2016

100

2017

140e

2018

200

2019

265e

2020

350

2021

2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Jabil Inc. 2021. Amazon, data as of 12/31/22. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice ora recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING130The Opportunity For Robot Penetration In Manufacturing Is Immense
Amazon is in the early days of mass robot adoption, pointing the way for other industries. To reach Amazon’s robot density, the US manufacturing industry would
have to add four million robots, roughly 6X the unit sales of industrial robots globally today. What is the upper bound for robot density long term?

Automation In The US

Robot Density per 10,000 Employees

3,500

3,200

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

1,300

1,000
500

140

-

Date of Latent Data:

Manufacturing

Auto Industry

Amazon

2019

2019

2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Automation.com 2021; Amazon 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING

131

3D Printing Should Impact Many Industries
ARK estimates that 3D printing will be a $500 billion market opportunity as

3D printing is likely to enable new products and markets. Boston Dynamics’

applied to existing products.

Atlas humanoid robot, for example, achieved a strength-to-weight ratio that

3D Printing Addressable Opportunity(2022, Millions)enabled leaps and somersaults, thanks to 3D printing.

$600,000
Containers and Packaging$500,000

Semiconductors and Equipment
Footwear$400,000

Plastic Products
Foundries$300,000

ConsumerElectrical Components and Equipment$200,000

Autos
Heath Care

$100,000$0Machinery
Aerospace and Defense

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/26/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment
advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING

132

The Barriers To 3D Printing Adoption Include Materials, Costs, Know-How, And Processing
3D printing costs should be compared to those over the lifetime of a part—from design to retirement—in traditional manufacturing. While upfront
costs can be higher, 3D printed parts can be produced much faster with more durability than parts manufactured traditionally.

Top 3 Barriers To 3D Printing Adoption*"What Prevents Your Company From Doing More 3D Printing

Use Of 3D Printing Across Applications And Time
"In What Way Does Your Company Currently Use 3D Printing?"
2017

In Production Today?"

2021

2017

72%

69%
66%

62%

57%

53%

56%

2019

2021
43%

Cost Or Availability of

56%

Materials

52%

54%

46%
37%

Research &Development

39%

30%

Not asked in 2017

Percentage*

73%

2019

23%

38%
35%

27%

Qualified Personnel

44%
43%

14%

44%
Design or Process Issues
Prototyping

Jigs, Fixtures &BridgeProduction

Tooling

Production

Parts

Repair

39%
42%

3D Application*Percentage of respondents selecting an answer. Survey respondents totaled 302 individuals responsible for 3D printing decisions at manufacturing companies across the Electronics, Plastics and Packaging, Industrial
Machinery, Heavy Equipment, Automotive, Healthcare, Footwear, Orthopedics, Aerospace and Defense, and Transportation industries globally. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Jabil Inc. 2021. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of
future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING133

In Healthcare, 3D Printing Can Make A
Big Difference In The Operating RoomAnd Beyond

Surgeries: 3D Printed Tools, Guides, and Models
Shorten Time And Improve Accuracy
80%

Doctors use patient-specific 3D printed models to pre-plan surgeries andcustomize 3D printed tools/surgical guides for procedures, shortening
operating room time and improving patient outcomes.
Across a range of surgeries, 3D printed tools, guides, and models reduced
operating time on average by ~30% and increased performance, measured bysurgical accuracy and results, on average by ~40-50%.
According to ARK’s research, 3D printing could reduce total time spent in US
operating rooms for all surgery types by 5%, saving ~$12.5 billion. Worldwide,

Percent Improvement

60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

cost savings could approach $80 billion based on surgery time alone, before

Performanceaccounting for improved accuracy, reduced complications, and faster patient

Preoperative Planning

recovery.
3D printing could increase access to surgery around the globe by reducing
costs and increasing throughput. Health systems and services fall short ofpatient surgery demand by roughly 140 million cases a year.*Time+/- Standard Error

Surgical Tool/Guide
Note: Time Savings and Accuracy Improvements Provided by 3D Printed Surgical Guides andPreoperative Planning Aides: bars represent the average percent improvement in time or performance as
described in Bergmann et al. 2017 and Woodard et al. 2019, N=6-9 for each sample group. Error bars
represent +/- standard error. The above analysis was conducted across medical fields; however, oral
maxillofacial surgery and musculoskeletal studies were the most prevalent.

*Latest estimate available as of 2015. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Diment, L. et al. 2017; Meara et al. 2015; Dobson, G. 2020. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes onlyand should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTINGAI Improves 3D Printing Accuracy, Strength,
And Repeatability

134

Example: Machine Learning Control Algorithm For 3D Printing

Using sensors and machine learning algorithms to control the print
process, researchers reduced print error by ~30%, strengthened products
by up to 2X, and reduced waste in materials by up to 40%.
Higher accuracy could result in parts with better finish, less need forpost-processing, and fewer defects than in human-driven 3D printing
processes.
AI enables repeatability, which is critical to companies with strict
manufacturing standards and companies that need to scale 3D printers
across locations.
Companies that own the full software stack, build printers with sensors
that gather data, and enable over-the-air software updates should enjoy
competitive advantages.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Lee, W. et al. 2022; Piovarči et al. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or arecommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ROBOTICS & 3D PRINTING135

ARK Expects The Enterprise Value For Robotics And 3D Printing To Scale 80% At An
Annual Rate During The Next Eight Years, From $70 Billion Today To More Than $9
Trillion In 2030
Enterprise Value* for Next Generation Manufacturing(Billions)
3D Printing

Robotics$8,400

$700
$63

$10
2022

2030 Expected*2022 Enterprise Value for 3D printing includes a ~60% discount on private valuations. ARK updated its 3D printing adoption curve to better match recent growth rates. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. PitchBook,
data as of 01/26/23; S&P Global Market Intelligence, data as of 01/26/23. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation
to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023

136

Orbital Aerospace
Enabling Global Connectivity
Aerospace costs are declining, thanks to advancements in deeplearning, mobile connectivity, sensors, 3D printing, and robotics.
As a result, satellite launches and rocket landings are proliferating.
In the coming decade, satellite broadband and hypersonic flight
could generate annual revenues of ~$84 billion and ~$270 billion,
respectively.

Research by Sam Korus, Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics
ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any
particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

137

Reusable Rockets Should Lower Launch Costs By An Order of Magnitude…Or Two!
SpaceX put an end to soaring launch costs with its Falcon 9 reusable rocket. Falcon 9 has flown the same booster 14 times. Thanks to reusable rockets, SpaceX nearly
doubled its launches to 61 rockets in 2022.

Historical Rocket Launch Costs
Soyuz

Atlas V

Low Earth Orbit Rocket Launch Costs

Falcon 9$16,000$210$14,000$200$12,000$164$10,000$150

USD/kgLaunch Cost (Million), Inflation Adjusted

$250

$118

$8,000$6,000

$100
$71

$71

$4,000$2,000$50$$20062015

Atlas V

Ariane 55
ArianneFalcon 9

2016

2014

2015

Reusable Falcon 9 Rapidly Reusable(Modeled)

Starship2022(Modeled)
Forecast

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. SpaceX, data as of 01/12/23; Svitak, A. 2011; Martin, P. 2013; United Launch Alliance, data as of 01/19/23; de Selding, P. 2014. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

138

SpaceX Is Refurbishing Rockets In Record TimeThanks primarily to its rapid turnaround time, the first stage of the Falcon 9 costs less than $1 million to refurbish, according to our model. In contrast, each Space
Shuttle launch cost ~$1.5 billion.

Rocket Turnaround Time
400

356
350
300

Days

250

252

200
150
100

54
50

27

21

Space Shuttle: Average 1972-2011

Space Shuttle: Fastest 1985

First SpaceX Reuse 2017

SpaceX Reuse 2021

SpaceX Reuse 2022

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or holdany particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

139

Lower Satellite Launch Costs Should Enable Continuous Global Coverage With Low Latency
While satellites launched into geostationary orbit (GEO) technically offered global coverage, latency limited a compelling broadband internet experience. Today,
companies are launching thousands of low-cost satellites into low earth orbit (LEO) and enabling continuous global coverage with low latency and direct-to-mobile device
connectivity.

LEO~300 miles<40 ms latency*

GEO~22,000 miles
700 ms latency**Latency is measured in milliseconds (ms). Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice ora recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

140

Antenna Costs Could Drop To A Few Hundred Dollars By 2027
ARK’s research suggests that, as cumulative production reaches six million units, antenna costs could drop from roughly $500 today to $300 by the end of 2027. In fewer
than two years, SpaceX has produced ~1 million Starlink terminals.

Starlink Antenna Cost Decline*

Starlink User Terminals Produced

Forecast$100,000

1,200,000$10,000

1,000,000

800,000

Unit Cost$1,000600,000$100
400,000$10

200,000

$1
1

10

100

1,000

10,000100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Cumulative Production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Number of Days

*This estimated cost decline is based on limited data, including our modeled adoption curve for Starlink users. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Quilty, C. et al. 2020. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied
upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE141

The Number Of Satellites Scheduled For Orbit Should Increase As Costs Decline
Vertically integrating rocket and satellite launches should sustain the cost decline of rocket launches.

Active Satellites

Proposed
Satellites*

6,000

SpaceX Launch Cost Decline$100,000
Launch Cost ($/kg to Low Earth Orbit)(2021 Dollars)

100,000
90,0005,000

80,0004,000

70,00060,0003,000

50,00040,0002,000

30,00020,0001,000

10,000
2005

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Planned~$50,000 to send gallon ofwater to orbit$10,000~$750 to send
gallon ofwater to orbit$1,000$100

Starship forecast

$10

$1
1

100

10,0001,000,000

100,000,000

Cumulative Upmass (kg)
*ARK estimates that this will occur within a ten-year timeframe, by ~2032. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Lifson, M. et al. 2022; UCS 2022; Roberts, T. 2022. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For
informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

142

According To Wright’s Law, Satellite Bandwidth Costs Should Decline Roughly 45%
For Every Cumulative Doubling In Gigabits Per Second In Orbit
Since 2004, the cost of satellite bandwidth has dropped 7,500-fold, from $300,000,000 to $40,000/ Gigabits per second (Gbps). Thanks to Starship,* costs could fall
another 40-fold to ~$1,000/Gbps during the next five years. According to ARK’s research, 1 Gbps can serve 200 customers. At a capital cost of ~$1,000/Gbps, SpaceX could
recoup its Starship investment with a one-time charge of $5 per customer.**Satellite Bandwidth Cost Decline
1,000,000,000$/Gbps (Gigabits Per Second)

100,000,000

Anik-F2

10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000Starlink(Falcon9)

1,000
100

Forecasted
Starlink(Starship)

10
1
1

10

100

1,000

10,000100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

Cumulative Gbps
*Starship is SpaceX’s next generation rocket and satellites. **This assumes an oversubscription ratio of 20: 20x more people are paying for the service than are actively using it at a given time. Note also that this calculation does notincorporate satellite lifespans, satellite utilization, and ground-based infrastructure costs, all of which will impact costs and pricing decisions. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. VanderMeulen, R. et al. 2015. Forecasts are
inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of
future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE

143

Satellite Broadband Could Generate $84 Billion In Annual Revenue Over The Next 10 Years
Annual Addressable Market*

Addressable Subscribers*

Annual Broadband Bill*

Households Globally
Without Access To
Broadband

600 Million$60~$40 Billion

RVs

11 Million$1,620~$18 Billion

Recreational Boats

8.5 million$1,620~$14 Billion

Commercial
Aircraft Fleet

25 Thousand$225,000~$6 Billion

100 Thousand$60,000~$6 Billion

Cruise Ships,
Warships,
Commercial Ships~$84 Billion*Data presented in all columns are forecasts. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. VanderMeulen, R. et al. 2015. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be
considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: ORBITAL AEROSPACE144

The Demand For Hypersonic Flight Could Skyrocket In Response To Declining Launch Costs
According to our research, passengers* on short-haul private flights should
be willing to pay ~$15,000 for every two hours saved on private planes.
~4.5 Billion Passengers Flew in 2018
Based on the economics of the short-haul flight market, ARK estimates thatpassengers and businesses would be willing to pay $100,000 to save 13

15% of flights were >7 hours

hours on a 2–3-hour private hypersonic flight from New York City to Japan.
~680 Million Passengers Flew on Flights Longer

Potential Hypersonic Cost Declines Over TimeThan 7 Hours
0.4% of passengers flew private

ARK-Modeled Cost Today~$1,100/kg to LEO$100,000

Addressable Market

Starship$200/kg to LEO$18,000

Rapidly Reusable
Starship
90kg(~200lbs)$20/kg to LEO~2.7 Million Person Annual Hypersonic Flight$1,800$100,000 per hypersonic flight$270 Billion in Potential
Annual Revenues*This research assumes passengers and businesses with the financial resources to afford these prices today, not necessarily the average traveler. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited andcannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Works Cited

145

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

8MarketCap. Gold Market Cap. Data as of 01/17/23. https://8marketcap.com
AAA 2021. "Your Driving Costs 2021." AAA. https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-YDCBrochure-Live.pdf
Abbosh, C. et al. 2017. "Phylogenetic ctDNA analysis depicts early stage lung cancer evolution." National Library ofMedicine. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5812436/
Adams, D. et al. 2018. "Patisiran, an RNAi Therapeutic, for Hereditary Transthyretin Amyloidosis." The New England
Journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa1716153
Afonso, C. 2022. "Hertz CEO says their Teslas are saving 50-60% on maintenance costs VS ICE models." Electric
Vehicles. https://myevsorg.wordpress.com/2022/08/02/hertz-ceo-says-their-teslas-are-saving-50-60-onmaintenance-costs-vs-ice-models/
Alphabet. Investor Relations. Data as of 12/30/22. https://abc.xyz/investor/
Altruda, C. 2022. "Legal US Sports Betting Revenue, Handle And Tax Totals Since PASPA Repeal." Sports Handle.
https://sportshandle.com/sports-betting-revenue/
Amazon 2022. "10 years of Amazon robotics: how robots help sort packages, move product, and improve safety."
Amazon. https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/operations/10-years-of-amazon-robotics-how-robotshelp-sort-packages-move-product-and-improvesafety#:~:text=We%20have%20more%20than%20520%2C000,sort%20centers%20and%20air%20hubs.
Amazon. Company Filings. Data as of 12/31/22. Amazon SEC Filings
Anan, L. et al. 2020. "US digital payments: Achieving the next phase of consumer engagement." McKinsey &Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/banking-matters/usdigital-payments-achieving-the-next-phase-of-consumer-engagement
Anan, L. et al. 2022. "Consumer trends in digital payments." McKinsey & Company.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/banking-matters/consumer-trendsin-digital-payments
Ant Group 2023. "H Share IPO." Ant Group.
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1026/2020102600165.pdf
Apple. iPhone 3GS - Technical Specifications. Data as of 07/26/17.
https://support.apple.com/kb/sp565?locale=en_US
Apple. iPhone 6s - Technical Specifications. Data as of 04/15/21. https://support.apple.com/kb/sp726?locale=en_US
Apple. iPhone 14. Data as of 01/27/23. https://www.apple.com/iphone-14/specs/
Apple. List of iPhone models. Data as of 01/27/23. https://apple.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_iPhone_models
Arizona Department of Gaming. Current ADG Reports. Data as of 01/25/23.
https://gaming.az.gov/resources/reports#current-adg-reports
Arrington, M. 2007. "YouTube Revenues: $15 million per year, or per month?." TechCrunch.
https://techcrunch.com/2007/03/06/youtube-revenues-15-million-per-year-or-per-month/
ASCO. Special Series: Liquid Biopsies. Data as of 01/19/23. https://ascopubs.org/po/collections/liquid-biopsies
Automation.com 2021. "US Robot Density in Car Industry Ranks 7th Worldwide." Automation.com.
https://www.automation.com/en-us/articles/march-2021/us-robot-density-car-industry-ranks-7thworldwide
Avanzini, S. et al. 2020. "A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size." American
Association for the Advancement of Science. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abc4308
Baid, G. et al. 2022. "Deep Consensus improves the accuracy of sequences with a gap-aware sequence transformer."
Springer Nature Limited. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-022-01435-7Bank for International Settlements. Global Debt Market Cap. Data as of 01/25/23.
https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/c1?f=pdf
Barreto, M. et al. 2022. "Spending on Transport Infrastructure." OECD. https://www.itf-oecd.org/infrastructure-146

investment-data-reveal-contrasts-between-countries
Békés, M. et al. 2022. "PROTAC targeted protein degraders: the past is prologue." Springer Nature Limited.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41573-021-00371-6
Bellan , R. et al. 2022. "Musk says Tesla aspires to mass produce robotaxis by 2024." TechCrunch.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/20/elon-musk-mass-produce-robotaxi-by-2024/
Bellan, R. 2022. "Waymo is expanding its driverless program in Phoenix." TechCrunch.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/18/waymo-is-expanding-its-driverless-program-inphoenix/#:~:text=While%20Waymo%20wouldn't%20share,300%20cars%20in%20the%20city.
Biomedtracker. Clinical Pipeline of RNA-Based Therapies Over Time. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://www.biomedtracker.com/index.cfm
Biomedtracker. Gene Editing Programs by Disease Area. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://www.biomedtracker.com/index.cfm
Biomedtracker. Innovative Drug Candidates Have More Attractive Risk-Adjusted NPVs According to ARK’s Valuation
Framework. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.biomedtracker.com/index.cfm
Biomedtracker. Maturity of TPD Landscape. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.biomedtracker.com/index.cfm
Biomedtracker. The Market Seems to Undervalue Innovative Therapeutics Relative to Traditional Medicines. Data asof 01/17/23. https://www.biomedtracker.com/index.cfm
Bleeding Edge. Articles. Data as of 01/23/23. https://bleedingedge.ai
Block, Inc. Investor Relations. Data as of 12/29/22. https://investors.block.xyz/overview/default.aspx
Block, Inc.. Quarterly Results. Data as of 01/19/23. https://investors.block.xyz/overview/default.aspx
Bloomberg Finance L.P.. Opportunities generated.. Data as of 01/19/23. https://about.bnef.com/
Bloomberg. Despite Severe Drawdowns, Bitcoin Has Outperformed Every Major Asset Class Over Longer Time
Horizons. Data as of 01/27/23.
Bloomberg. Global Equities Market Cap. Data as of 01/25/23.
Bloomberg. Global M2 Market Cap. Data as of 01/25/23.
Bokhorst, L. et al. 2015. "Compliance Rates with the Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance(PRIAS) Protocol and Disease Reclassification in Noncompliers." Elsevier B.V..
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0302283815005151?via%3Dihub
Bolt, J. et al. 2022. "Maddison Project Database 2020." Groningen Growth and Development Centre.
https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020
BP p.l.c. 2022. "Oil demand." BP p.l.c.. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energyoutlook/oil-demand.html
Brohan, A. et al. 2022. "RT-1: Robotics Transformer for Real-World Control at Scale." Robotics at Google.
https://robotics-transformer.github.io/assets/rt1.pdf
Brown, D. et al. 2021. "Clinical development times for innovative drugs." Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00190-9
Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2017. "Appendix F. Estimating Transport costs." Bureau of Transportation
Statistics.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170125014817/https://ntl.bts.gov/lib/4000/4300/4318/ccf_apxF.pdf
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Freight Facts and Figures. Data as of 01/27/23.
https://www.bts.gov/product/freight-facts-and-figures
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Table 3-21: Average Freight Revenue Per Ton-mile (Current cents). Data as of
02/03/17. https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/national_transportation_statistics/table_03_21
Carroll, A. 2022. "A new genome sequencing tool powered with our technology." Google.
https://blog.google/technology/health/a-new-genome-sequencing-tool-powered-with-our-technology/

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Carter, N. 2022. "The Status of Proof of Reserve as of Year End 2022." Medium.
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/the-status-of-proof-of-reserve-as-of-year-end-2022-48120159377c
Chen, B. 2020. "Up to 91% More Expensive: How Delivery Apps Eat Up Your Budget." The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/technology/personaltech/ubereats-doordash-postmatesgrubhub-review.html
Chen, Y. et al. 2022. "Quantifying Regional Methane Emissions in the New Mexico Permian Basin with aComprehensive Aerial Survey." ACS Publications. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c06458
China Internet Watch 2022. "Alipay." China Internet Watch. https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/tag/alipay/
Choo, L. 2022. "The Crypto Bowl is the beginning of a blockchain advertising bonanza." Protocol.
https://www.protocol.com/fintech/super-bowl-crypto-bowl
Clarivate. RNA Technology Patents Granted Over Time. Data as of 01/17/23. https://clarivate.com/
Colao, J. 2012. "Snapchat: The Biggest No-Revenue Mobile App Since Instagram." Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jjcolao/2012/11/27/snapchat-the-biggest-no-revenue-mobile-app-sinceinstagram/?sh=f5a0ee372000
Cozzi, L. et al. 2022. "World Energy Outlook 2022." IEA. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099-553048f2-a7c1-11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf
Crisp, A. 2018. "IGD: online set to be fastest growing Asia channel with 194% growth predicted by 2022." The Instituteof Grocery Distribution. https://www.igd.com/articles/article-viewer/t/igd-online-set-to-be-fastestgrowing-asia-channel-with-194-growth-predicted-by-2022/i/19947
CryptoSlam. Avalanche Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/avalanche
CryptoSlam. Blockchains by NFT Sales Volume. Data as of 01/25/23. https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains
CryptoSlam. BNB Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/bnb
CryptoSlam. Cardano Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/cardano
CryptoSlam. Ethereum Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/ethereum
CryptoSlam. Flow Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/flow
CryptoSlam. Immutablex Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/immutablex
CryptoSlam. NFT Trading Volume. Data as of 01/17/23. Cryptoslam.io
CryptoSlam. Panini Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/panini
CryptoSlam. Polygon Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/polygon
CryptoSlam. Ronin Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/ronin
CryptoSlam. Solana Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/solana
CryptoSlam. WAX Sales Volume Data, Graphs & Charts. Data as of 01/02/23.
https://www.cryptoslam.io/blockchains/wax
de Selding, P. 2014. "Former Arianespace Chief Says SpaceX Has Advantage on Cost." SpaceNews.
https://spacenews.com/39906former-arianespace-chief-says-spacex-has-advantage-on-cost/
De, N. et al. 2022. "Three Arrows Capital Files for Bankruptcy in New York Tied to British Virgin Islands Proceeding."

147

CoinDesk. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/01/three-arrows-capital-files-for-bankruptcy-innew-york-tied-to-british-virgin-islands-proceeding/
DefiLlama. AAVE V2 (AAVE). Data as of 01/03/23. https://defillama.com/protocol/aave-v2
DeLong, B. 1998. "Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C. - Present." University of California at Berkeley.
http://holtz.org/Library/Social%20Science/Economics/Estimating%20World%20GDP%20by%20DeLong/E
stimating%20World%20GDP.htm
Desjardins, J. 2020. "All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization." Visual Capitalist.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/
Diment, L. et al. 2017. "Clinical efficacy and effectiveness of 3D printing: a systematic review." BMJ Publishing Group
Ltd. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/12/e016891
DJI. Phantom 2 Vision+. Data as of 01/27/23. https://www.dji.com/phantom-2-vision-plus/info
Dobson, G. 2020. "Trauma of major surgery: A global problem that is not going away." National Library of Medicine.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388795/
Dune Analytics. Mints By Category ETH + Solana. Data as of 01/23/23. https://dune.com/queries/1921295
Dune Analytics. Total NFT Mints. Data as of 01/17/23. https://dune.com/queries/1886799?d=11
Dune Analytics. Transactions by Chain Charts (OP, Arbi, ETH). Data as of 01/17/23.
https://dune.com/queries/1873519/3083010
Edmunds.com, Inc.. 2022 Tesla Model 3 Cost to Own. Data as of 01/27/23. https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model3/2022/cost-to-own/?style=401884809
Edmunds.com, Inc.. 2022 Toyota Camry Cost to Own. Data as of 01/27/23.
https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/camry/2022/cost-to-own/?style=401903004
FDIC. Bank Data & Statistics. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.fdic.gov/bank/statistical/
Federal Highway Administration 2020. "Traffic Congestion and Reliability: Trends and Advanced Strategies forCongestion Mitigation." Federal Highway Administration.
https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/congestion_report/executive_summary.htm#congestion_worse
Federal Highway Administration. Travel Monitoring. Data as of 12/28/22.
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm
Ferguson, D. 2020. "Introducing R2, Nuro’s Next Generation Self-Driving Vehicle." Medium.
https://medium.com/nuro/introducing-r2-nuros-next-generation-self-driving-vehicle-a9974ff6c2e0
FFIEC. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Central Data Repository's Public Data Distribution. Data asof 01/17/23. https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx
FIS 2020. "Global Payment Report January 2020." FIS. https://offers.worldpayglobal.com/rs/850-JOA856/images/GPR-2020.pdf?
FIS 2021. "The Global Payment Report 2021." FIS. https://offers.worldpayglobal.com/rs/850-JOA856/images/1297411%20GPR%20DIGITAL%20ENGLISH%20SINGLES%20RGB%20FNL11.pdf
FIS 2022. "The Global Payment Report For Financial Institutions and Merchants." FIS.
https://offers.worldpayglobal.com/rs/850-JOA856/images/ENGPR2022.pdf?_gl=1*d051l9*_ga*MzgwNTY2MTUzLjE2Njg1NDUyMDU.*_ga_SKZCV3S405*MTY
2ODcwMDYzOC4yLjEuMTY2ODcwMDY1OS4wLjAuMA..
Flashbots. Transparency dashboard. Data as of 01/17/23. https://transparency.flashbots.net/
GitHub. Copilot · Your AI pair programmer. Data as of 01/27/23. https://github.com/features/copilot
Glasner, J. 1999. "Iridium Cuts Prices." Wired. https://www.wired.com/1999/06/iridium-cuts-prices/
Glassnode. Bitcoin Mean Hash Rate. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=mining.HashRateMean&s=1278892800&u=1673568000&zoom=

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Glassnode. Bitcoin Price [USD]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=market.PriceUsdClose&s=1278892800&u=1673
568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin Realized Cap [USD]. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=market.MarketcapRealizedUsd&s=127889280
0&u=1673568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin Realized Price [USD]. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=market.PriceRealizedUsd&s=1278892800&u=1
673568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Adjusted Percent Supply in Profit. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-supply-percent-in-profit-adjusted
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Circulating Supply [BTC]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&ema=0&m=supply.Current&mAvg=0&mMedian=0&modal=loginForm&zoom=all
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Lightning Network Capacity [BTC]. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=lightning.NetworkCapacitySum&s=127889280
0&u=1673568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges [BTC] - All Exchanges. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=transactions.TransfersVolumeExchangesNet
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Number of Addresses wirth a Non-Zero Balance. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=addresses.NonZeroCount&s=1278892800&u=1
673568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Number of Addresses. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=addresses.Count
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Number of Transactions. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=transactions.Count
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=supply.ActiveMore1YPercent&s=1278892800&
u=1673568000&zoom=
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Realized Profit and Loss. Data as of 01/20/23. https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btcrealized-pnl
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Total Miner Revenue [BTC] - All Miners. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=mining.RevenueSum
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Total Supply Held by Long-Term Holders. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=supply.LthSum&s=1278892800&u=167356800
0&zoom=Glassnode. Bitcoin: Total Transfer Volume [BTC]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=transactions.TransfersVolumeSum
Glassnode. Bitcoin: Total Transfer Volume [BTC]. Data as of 01/20/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=transactions.TransfersVolumeSum
Glassnode. Ethereum: Burned Supply [ETH]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=&ema=0&m=supply.Burned&mAvg=0&mMedian=0&modal=loginForm&zoom=all
Glassnode. Ethereum: Circulating Supply [ETH]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=&ema=0&m=supply.Current&mAvg=0&mMedian=0&modal=loginForm&zoom=all

148

Glassnode. Ethereum: Ethereum Gas Usage by Transaction Type (Absolute) (90d Moving Average). Data as of
01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=Fees&ema=0&m=fees.TxTypesBreakdownSum&m
Avg=90&mMedian=0&modal=loginForm
Glassnode. Ethereum: Issuance [ETH]. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=&m=supply.Issued&modal=loginForm
Goldstein, T. 2022. "I estimate the cost of running ChatGPT is $100K per day, or $3M per month. This is a back-ofthe-envelope calculation. I assume nodes are always in use with a batch size of 1. In reality they probably
batch during high volume, but have GPUs sitting fallow during low volume.." Twitter.
https://twitter.com/tomgoldsteincs/status/1600196995389366274
Google Flights. Shorthaul Flight v Robotaxi. Data as of 01/26/23. https://www.google.com/travel/flights
Gopalakrishnan, K. et al. 2022. "RT-1: Robotics Transformer for real-world control at scale." Google.
https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/12/rt-1-robotics-transformer-for-real.html
Grail. GRAIL’s multi-cancer early detection test. Data as of 01/19/23. https://grail.com/our-products/
Gregson, R. 1999. "Iridium Results Beat Expectations, but Road Ahead Still Bumpy." RCR Wireless News.
https://www.rcrwireless.com/19990201/archived-articles/iridium-results-beat-expectations-but-roadahead-still-bumpy
Hall, J. 2022. "UK hits double-digit inflation for the first time in 40 years." CoinTelegraph.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/uk-hits-double-digit-inflation-for-the-first-time-in-40-years
Haque, I. et al. 2018. "Limitations on Mutation Detection for Early Detection of Cancer." Freenome Inc.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54e4c4c4e4b06b5b9b5b6e2c/t/5ea81cc8eac6e000b6eba4c0/15880
75724785/2018_AACR_Poster_2.pdf
Hasenstab, B. 1998. "Cell phone plan debuts." Cable News Network.
https://money.cnn.com/1998/05/07/technology/attwireless/
Hoffmann, J. et al. 2022. "Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models." arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556
IAB 2022. "2021 Video Ad Spend & 2022 Outlook May 2022." IAB. https://www.iab.com/wpcontent/uploads/2022/05/2022-IAB-Video-Ad-Spend-Report.pdf
IEA 2021. "Oil 2021 Analysis and forecast to 2026." IEA. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fa45234-bac5-4d89a532-768960f99d07/Oil_2021-PDF.pdf
Insider Intelligence. Connected TV Ad Spending. Data as of 12/22/22.
Insider Intelligence. Connected TV Households. Data as of 01/12/23.
Insider Intelligence. Digital Video Viewers. Data as of 01/02/23.
Insider Intelligence. Meta Ad Revenues. Data as of 12/22/22.
Insider Intelligence. Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2022-2026. Data as of 01/27/23. www.emarketer.com
Insider Intelligence. Retail Ecommerce Sales. Data as of 01/02/23.
Insider Intelligence. TikTok Ad Revenues. Data as of 12/22/22.
Insider Intelligence. TV Viewers and Penetration. Data as of 01/12/23.
Insider Intelligence. YouTube Ad Revenues. Data as of 12/22/22.
International Fund for Agricultural Development 2022. "12 reasons why remittances are important." International
Fund for Agricultural Development. https://www.ifad.org/en/web/latest/-/12-reasons-why-remittancesareimportant#:~:text=A%20staggering%20one%20billion%20people,average)%20benefit%20from%20these%
20flows.
Iqbal, M. 2022. "Snapchat Revenue and Usage Statistics (2022)." Business of Apps.
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/snapchat-statistics/

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Iqbal, M. 2022. "TikTok Revenue and Usage Statistics (2022)." Business of Apps.
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/tik-tok-statistics/
IQVIA Inc 2022. "Global Oncology Trends 2022." IQVIA Inc. https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqviainstitute/reports/global-oncology-trends-2022
Irle, R. 2022. "Global EV Sales for 2022 H1." EV-Volumes. http://ev-volumes.com
Irle, R. 2022. "Global EV Sales for 2022 H1." EV-Volumes. https://www.ev-volumes.com/
Irvine, A. 2019. "Paying for CRISPR Cures: The Economics of Genetic Therapies." Innovative Genomics Institute.
https://innovativegenomics.org/news/paying-for-crispr-cures/
Jabil Inc. 2021. "3D Printing Trends: Six Major Developments." Jabil Inc.. https://www.jabil.com/blog/3d-printingtrends-show-positive-outlook.html
Jang, E. et al. 2022. "BC-Z: Zero-Shot Task Generalization with Robotic Imitation Learning." arXiv.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.02005
Johnson, P. 2022. "1/ Last year, stablecoins settled >$7tn on-chain. Current run-rate is ~$9tn/yr. This is significantly
more than Mastercard (~$2.2tn), Amex (~$1tn), and Discover (<$200bn). In 2023, on-chain stablecoinvolumes will surpass the largest card network, Visa, which processes ~$12tn/yr.." Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TheChicagoVC/status/1605596279295201280
Kalliamvakou, E. 2022. "Research: quantifying GitHub Copilot’s impact on developer productivity and happiness."
GitHub, Inc.. https://github.blog/2022-09-07-research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developerproductivity-and-happiness/Kane, M. 2022. "US: The Number Of EV Models With 300+ Miles Of Range Tripled in 2022." InsideEVs.
https://insideevs.com/news/607517/us-number-models-300miles-range-2022/
Kasparov, G. et al. 2017. "Why the rise of authoritarianism is a global catastrophe." Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2017/02/13/why-the-rise-ofauthoritarianism-is-a-global-catastrophe/
Kaspi. 3Q 2022 Results. Data as of 01/17/23. https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/3Q_2022_Presentation.pdf
Kaur , D. 2022. "Ten years later, Alipay is still the most popular digital wallet in the world." Tech Wire Asia.
https://techwireasia.com/2022/08/ten-years-later-alipay-is-still-the-most-popular-digital-wallet-in-theworld/
Kemp, S. 2012. "DIGITAL 2012: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2012global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2013. "DIGITAL 2013: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2013global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2014. "DIGITAL 2014: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2014global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2015. "DIGITAL 2015: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2015global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2016. "DIGITAL 2016: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2016global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2017. "DIGITAL 2017: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2017global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2018. "DIGITAL 2018: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2018global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2019. "DIGITAL 2019: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2019global-digital-overview
Kemp, S. 2020. "DIGITAL 2020: GLOBAL DIGITAL OVERVIEW." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2020global-digital-overview

149

Kemp, S. 2021. "DIGITAL 2021: GLOBAL OVERVIEW REPORT." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2021global-overview-report
Kemp, S. 2022. "DIGITAL 2022: GLOBAL OVERVIEW REPORT." Kepios. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2022global-overview-report
Kilcarr, S. 2014. "Big rigs, big costs." Endeavor Business Media, LLC.. http://fleetowner.com/blog/big-rigs-big-costs
Koppal, T. 2020. "Understanding the nuances of targeted protein degradation." YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZPLBBYsAKQ
Korus, S. 2018. "Auto Capital Spending Suggests That EV Forecasts Are Much Too Low." ARK Investment Management
LLC. https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/ev-forecasts/
Kuzmichenok, V. 2021. "Yandex Buys Uber Out of Food Delivery Partnership in $1Bln Deal." The Moscow Times.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/08/31/yandex-buys-uber-out-of-food-delivery-partnership-in1bln-deal-a74935
Lee, T. 2022. "Waymo finally launches an actual public, driverless taxi service." Condé Nast.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/waymo-finally-launches-an-actual-public-driverless-taxi-service/
Lee, W. et al. 2022. "Adaptive 3D Printing for In Situ Adjustment of Mechanical Properties." Wiley-VCH GmbH.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aisy.202200229
Li, C. 2020. "OpenAI's GPT-3 Language Model: A Technical Overview." Lambda.
https://lambdalabs.com/blog/demystifying-gpt-3
Lienert, P. 2018. "Global carmakers to invest at least $90 billion in electric vehicles." Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-electric/global-carmakers-to-invest-at-least-90billion-in-electric-vehicles-idUSKBN1F42NW
Lienert, P. 2022. "A Reuters analysis of 37 global automakers found that they plan to invest nearly $1.2 trillion inelectric vehicles and batteries through 2030." Reuters Graphics. https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOSINVESTMENT/ELECTRIC/akpeqgzqypr/index.html
Lienert, P. et al. 2021. "Exclusive: Global carmakers now target $515 billion for EVs, batteries." Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-global-carmakers-now-target-515billion-evs-batteries-2021-11-10/
Lifson, M. et al. 2022. "Is there enough room in space for tens of billions of satellites, as Elon Musk suggests? We
don’t think so.." SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/op-ed-is-there-enough-room-in-space-for-tens-ofbillions-of-satellites-as-elon-musk-suggests-we-dont-think-so/
Lindeborg, R. et al. 2021. "Cost of Clinical Trials: A Breakdown (Infographic)." Clinical Research.
https://www.clinicalresearch.io/blog/industry-trends/cost-of-clinical-trials-breakdown/
Lopez, L. 2022. "PacBio Announces Revio, a Revolutionary New Long Read Sequencing System Designed to Provide
15 Times More HiFi Data and Human Genomes at Scale for Under $1,000." PacBio.
https://www.pacb.com/press_releases/pacbio-announces-revio-a-revolutionary-new-long-readsequencing-system-designed-to-provide-15-times-more-hifi-data-and-human-genomes-at-scale-forunder-1000/
Mackay, M. et al. 2022. "Dual tissue and plasma testing to improve detection of actionable variants in patients withsolid cancers.." American Society of Clinical Oncology.
https://ascopubs.org/doi/abs/10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.3017
Malone, C. 2007. "Gene Regulation in Eukaryotes." California State University of Northridge.
https://www.csun.edu/~cmalone/pdf360/

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Malwa, S. 2023. "Ethereum Name Service Recorded Over 2.8M Domain Registrations in 2022." Yahoo.
https://autos.yahoo.com/ethereum-name-recorded-over-2075720583.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=
AQAAAE1S15_Gsif9zAC4o4CGwJwQxxS401ItNpifnl_2AWPLHnkg_Xm5OI-E4MC-dllBeU40bfsAiVwF3h9LoZECxqnJSxJyTilojz9ReCa2Uzl3szOM4AdraATfEn5zeVDwYzZEjvonOcl29HNWcKukFzzT4ddM5Rk9CEf84nLxbX
Martin, P. 2013. "NASA’s Efforts to Maximize Research on the International Space Station." OIG.
https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY13/IG-13-019.pdf
Mathios, D. et al. 2021. "Detection and characterization of lung cancer using cell-free DNA fragmentomes." Springer
Nature Limited. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24994-w
McKinsey & Company 2021. "The rise and rise of the global balance sheet." McKinsey & Company.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/the%20ri
se%20and%20rise%20of%20the%20global%20balance%20sheet%20how%20productively%20are%20we%
20using%20our%20wealth/mgi-the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-full-report-vf.pdf
McKinsey & Company 2022. "The 2022 McKinsey Global Payments Report." McKinsey & Company.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/the%202022%20mckinsey%20global%20payments%20report/the-2022-mckinsey-global-payments-report.pdf
Meara, . et al. 2015. "Global Surgery 2030." The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery,.
https://www.lancetglobalsurgery.org/_files/ugd/346076_713dd3f8bb594739810d84c1928ef61a.pdf
Mensah, G. et al. 2017. "Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications." National Library ofMedicine. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28104770/
Mensah, G. et al. 2018. "Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications." National Library ofMedicine. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5268076/
Messari. Launch and Initial Token Distribution. Data as of 01/25/23. https://messari.io/
Meta Platforms, Inc.. Corporate filings. Data as of 12/30/22. https://investor.fb.com/financials/?section=secfilings
Michuda, J. et al. 2022. "Use of clinical RNA-sequencing in the detection of actionable fusions compared to DNAsequencing alone.." American Society of Clinical Oncology.
https://ascopubs.org/doi/abs/10.1200/JCO.2022.40.16_suppl.3077
Miller, A. 2021. "Airport Deserts – Exploring The Distance Between Airports And The Cities They Serve [Data Study]."Upgraded Points. https://upgradedpoints.com/travel/airports/airport-deserts-data-study/
Morrison, R. et al. 2015. "Most U.S. Households Do Their Main Grocery Shopping at Supermarkets and Supercenters
Regardless of Income." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves/2015/august/most-us-households-do-their-main-grocery-shopping-at-supermarkets-andsupercenters-regardless-of-income
MPayPass 2020. "China Payment and Clearing Association released the "2019 Mobile Payment User Survey Report"."MPayPass. https://m.mpaypass.com.cn/news/202001/06142719.html
MPayPass 2021. "China Payment and Clearing Association released the "2020 Mobile Payment User Survey Report"."MPayPass. https://m.mpaypass.com.cn/news/202101/12171328.html
MPayPass 2022. "China Payment and Clearing Association released the 2021 mobile payment user survey report."
MPayPass. https://m.mpaypass.com.cn/news/202204/19131610.html
MPayPass 2022. "Payment and Clearing Association of China Releases 2022 Survey Report on Mobile Payment User
Usage." MPayPass. https://m.mpaypass.com.cn/news/202212/13181900.html
Müller, C. 2022. "Executive Summary World Robotics 2022 Industrial Robots." VDMA Services GmbH.
https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_Industrial_Robots_2022.pdf
Musunuru, K. et al. 2021. "In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates." Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03534-y

150

Nalley, S. et al. 2021. "International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)." U.S. Energy Information Administration.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
Nalley, S. et al. 2022. "Annual Energy Outlook 2022." U.S. Energy Information Administration.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/Nansen. ETH2. Data as of 01/17/23. https://pro.nansen.ai/eth2-deposit-contract
Nasir, M. et al. 2022. "From drug target inhibition to degradation: a TACtical strategy." Springer Nature Limited.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43747-022-00173-8
Natera, Inc. Why circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) for MRD assessment?. Data as of 01/19/23.
https://www.natera.com/oncology/signatera-advanced-cancer-detection/
National Cancer Institute. All Cancer Sites Combined. Data as of 01/19/23. https://seer.cancer.gov/statisticsnetwork/explorer/application.html?site=1&data_type=1&graph_type=2&compareBy=sex&chk_sex_3=3&chk_sex_2=2&rate_type=2&race=1&age_range=1&hdn_stage=101&advopt_precision=1&advopt_show_ci=on&
hdn_view=0&advopt_show_apc=on&advopt_display=2#graphArea
New Hampshire Lottery Commission. Financial Reports. Data as of 01/25/23. https://www.nhlottery.com/AboutUs/Financial-Reports
No Source Type Provided
O'Neill, A. 2022. "The Ethereum Merge Is Successful – How Will It Impact Traders and the Global Crypto Market?."The Daily Hodl. https://dailyhodl.com/2022/10/01/the-ethereum-merge-is-successful-how-will-it-impacttraders-and-the-global-cryptomarket/#:~:text=It%20was%20a%20success%20%E2%80%93%20as,officially%20upgraded%20into%20Ethereum%202.0.
OECD Data. Hours worked. Data as of 12/28/22. https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm
OpenAI. DALL·E 2. Data as of 01/23/23. https://openai.com/dall-e-2/
PA Gaming Control Board. Gaming Revenue Fiscal Year 2022/2023. Data as of 01/25/23.
https://gamingcontrolboard.pa.gov/?p=320
Pandaily 2022. "XPeng Plans to Develop Fully Unmanned Driving in Three Years." Pandaily.
https://pandaily.com/xpeng-plans-to-develop-fully-unmanned-driving-in-three-years/
Parker, J. et al. 2021. "Does biomarker use in oncology improve clinical trial failure risk? A large-scale analysis."
National Library of Medicine. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33620160/
Personalis Inc. Delivering Industry-Leading Sensitivity to Detect Residual Disease and Recurrence at the Earliest
Timepoints. Data as of 01/19/23. https://www.personalis.com/next-personal/
Piovarči, ‪. et al. 2022. "Closed-Loop Control of Direct Ink Writing via Reinforcement Learning." arXiv.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.11819.pdf
PitchBook. 3D Printing Enterprise Value Stock Screen. Data as of 01/26/23. pitchbook.com
PitchBook. Autonomous Ridehail Enterprise Value. Data as of 01/26/23. www.pitchbook.com
Pitney Bowes Inc.. Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index. Data as of 01/27/23.
https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html
Pitney Bowes. Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index. Data as of 01/27/23. https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shippingindex.html
PLAYWV. West Virginia Sports Betting Revenue. Data as of 12/30/22. https://www.playwv.com/revenue/
Ponciano, J. 2022. "Crypto Lender Genesis Suspends Withdrawals: FTX Collapse Created ‘Unprecedented Market
Turmoil’." Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/11/16/crypto-lender-genesissuspends-withdrawals-ftx-collapse-created-unprecedented-market-turmoil/?sh=29b93971782d

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

Ponnezhath, M. et al. 2022. "Major crypto lender Celsius files for bankruptcy." Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-lender-celsius-files-bankruptcy-2022-07-14/
Property Rights Alliance. International Property Rights Index 2022. Data as of 01/25/23.
https://www.internationalpropertyrightsindex.org/
Quilty, C. et al. 2020. "Flat Panel Antennas: The Next Big Thing or an Elusive Unicorn?." Quilty Analytics. Quilty
Analytics
Raval, A. 2022. "Illumina to showcase the transformational impact of comprehensive genomic profiling in unlocking
precision medicine for cancer patients, at ASCO." Illumina. https://www.illumina.com/company/newscenter/press-releases/2022/3424cbc9-3dd5-498a-aa0b-4627310badef.html
Rawstron, A. et al. 2015. "Minimal residual disease in myeloma by flow cytometry: independent prediction of survival
benefit per log reduction." American Society of Hematology.
https://ashpublications.org/blood/article/125/12/1932/33718/Minimal-residual-disease-in-myeloma-byflow
Roach, J. 2022. "Pinch-grasping robot handles items with precision." Amazon. https://www.amazon.science/latestnews/pinch-grasping-robot-handles-items-with-precision
Robbins, D. et al. 2020. "Nx-2127, a Degrader of BTK and IMiD Neosubstrates, for the Treatment of B-Cell
Malignancies." ASH Publications.
https://ashpublications.org/blood/article/136/Supplement%201/34/472476/Nx-2127-a-Degrader-of-BTKand-IMiD-Neosubstrates
Roberts, T. 2022. "Space Launch to Low Earth Orbit: How Much Does It Cost?." Center for Strategic and International
Studies. https://aerospace.csis.org/data/space-launch-to-low-earth-orbit-how-much-does-it-cost/
Roblox. Gucci Town. Data as of 12/30/22. https://www.roblox.com/games/7830918930/Gucci-Town
Roblox. NIKELAND [SNOWBALL FIGHT]. Data as of 12/30/22.
https://www.roblox.com/games/7462526249/NIKELAND-NEW-3V3#!/about
Roblox. Tommy Play. Data as of 12/30/22. https://www.roblox.com/games/9129288160/FASHION-SHOW-TommyPlay
Roblox. Vans World [GIFTS]. Data as of 12/30/22. https://www.roblox.com/games/6679274937/Vans-World
Roblox. Walmart Land. Data as of 12/30/22. https://www.roblox.com/games/10895555747/Walmart-Land
Roser, M. et al. 2019. "Cancer." Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates
Rowland, T. et al. 2022. "GRAIL Announces Final Results From the PATHFINDER Multi-Cancer Early Detection
Screening Study at ESMO Congress 2022." Grail. https://grail.com/press-releases/grail-announces-finalresults-from-the-pathfinder-multi-cancer-early-detection-screening-study-at-esmo-congress-2022/
Rusinek, I. et al. 2022. "Detection and monitoring of circulating tumor DNA using affordable high-depth wholegenome sequencing on a new sequencing platform." Ultima Genomics.
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/l7780ks7/production/f1794a36e12464e7ec57f7da7468df11c6ef5488.pdf
S&P Capital IQ. Capital IQ Equity Screening Report. Data as of 01/26/23. capitaliq.com
S&P Global Market Intelligence. 3D Printing Addressable Market. Data as of 01/26/23. capitaliq.com
S&P Global Market Intelligence. 3D Printing Enterprise Value Stock Screen. Data as of 01/26/23. capitaliq.com
S&P Global Market Intelligence. Global Advertising Expenditure Forecast. Data as of 01/25/23.
S&P Global Market Intelligence. Global gaming revenue, Q3 2022. Data as of 01/25/23.
S&P Global Market Intelligence. Market Cap Attributable to Robotics. Data as of 01/26/23. capitaliq.com
S&P Global. Automotive Industry Forecast: Light Vehicle Sales. Data as of 12/28/22.
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/products/automotive-light-vehicle-sales-forecasts.html
S&P Global. Automotive Industry Forecast: Light Vehicle Sales. Data as of 12/29/22.
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/products/automotive-light-vehicle-sales-forecasts.html
Samarasinghe, K. et al. 2021. "Targeted protein degradation: A promise for undruggable proteins." National Library ofMedicine. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34004187/

151

Sandor, K. et al. 2022. "The Fall of Terra: A Timeline of the Meteoric Rise and Crash of UST and LUNA." CoinDesk.
https://www.coindesk.com/learn/the-fall-of-terra-a-timeline-of-the-meteoric-rise-and-crash-of-ust-andluna/Sensor Tower Inc. Sensor Tower Usage Active Users Unified. Data as of 01/25/23.
Sigalos, M. 2022. "Sam Bankman-Fried steps down as FTX CEO as his crypto exchange files for bankruptcy." CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-forbankruptcy.html
Sigalos, M. et al. 2022. "Crypto firm BlockFi files for bankruptcy as FTX fallout spreads." CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/28/blockfi-files-for-bankruptcy-as-ftx-fallout-spreads.html
Simmons, V. et al. 2022. "The next S-curve of growth: Online grocery to 2030." McKinsey Insights.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-next-s-curve-of-growth-online-grocery-to2030
Singer, U. et al. 2022. "Make-A-Video: Text-to-Video Generation without Text-Video Data." Meta.
https://makeavideo.studio
Snap Inc.. Corporate filings. Data as of 12/30/22. https://investor.snap.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx
SpaceX. Falcon 9 First Orbital Class Rocket Capable of Reflight. Data as of 01/12/23.
https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/
SpaceX. Upcoming Launch Starlink Mission. Data as of 01/12/23. http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
Stability 2022. "Stable Diffusion 2.0 Release." Stability. https://stability.ai/blog/stable-diffusion-v2-release
Starlink. Order Starlink. Data as of 01/12/23. https://www.starlink.com/
State of Colorado. Sports Betting Monthly Reports. Data as of 01/25/23. https://sbg.colorado.gov/sports-bettingmonthly-reports
Statista. Digital Music - Worldwide. Data as of 01/25/23. https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/digitalmedia/digital-music/worldwide#revenue
Statista. Video-on-Demand - Worldwide. Data as of 01/25/23. https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/digitalmedia/video-on-demand/worldwide#revenue
Svitak, A. 2011. "Rising Engine Costs, Uncertainty Drive Up Atlas 5 Prices for NASA." SpaceNews.
https://spacenews.com/rising-engine-costs-uncertainty-drive-atlas-5-prices-nasa/
TechNode 2022. "Baidu can start charging for fully driverless robotaxis in Wuhan and Chongqing." TechNode.
https://technode.com/2022/08/08/baidu-can-start-charging-for-fully-driverless-robotaxis-in-wuhan-andchongqing/
TechNode 2022. "Pony.ai to start charging money for its robotaxi services in Guangzhou." TechNode.
https://technode.com/2022/04/24/pony-ai-to-start-charging-money-for-its-robotaxi-services-inguangzhou/
TechnoPixel 2022. "Ethereum Majorly Passes First Major Test For PoS." TechnoPixel.
https://www.technopixel.org/ethereum-majorly-passes-first-major-test-for-pos/
Tejpaul, B. et al. 2022. "Coinbase selected by BlackRock; provide Aladdin clients access to crypto trading andcustody via Coinbase Prime." Coinbase. https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-selected-by-blackrockprovide-aladdin-clients-access-to-crypto-trading-and-custody-via
Tepper, T. 2022. "Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2022." Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fedfunds-rate-history/
Tesla 2022. "Tesla AI Day 2022." Tesla. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU
The Block. DEX to CEX Spot Trade Volume (%). Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralizedfinance/dex-non-custodial/dex-to-cex-spot-trade-volume
The Block. DEX to CEX Spot Trade Volume. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralizedfinance/dex-non-custodial/dex-to-cex-spot-trade-volume

BIG IDEAS 2023: WORKS CITED

The Block. DEX Volume. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/dex-noncustodial/dex-volume-monthly
The Block. Ethereum Lending Market Liquidations. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/cryptocurrency-lending/lending-marketliquidations-daily
The World Bank 2016. "2 Billion: Number of Adults Worldwide Without Access to Formal Financial Services." TheWorld Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/03/10/2-billion-number-of-adultsworldwide-without-access-to-formal-financial-services
The World Bank 2021. "The Global Findex Database 2021: Financial Inclusion, Digital Payments, and Resilience in theAge of COVID-19." The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex
The World Bank Group. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $). Data as of 01/27/23.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD
The World Bank. Final consumption expenditure (current US$). Data as of 12/30/22.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.GOVT.CD
The World Bank. GDP (current US$). Data as of 12/30/22. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.TOTL.CD
The World Bank. GDP per capita (current US$). Data as of 12/30/22.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
The World Bank. Population, total. Data as of 01/19/23. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
The World Bank. Population, total. Data as of 01/20/23. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
Tie, J. et al. 2022. "Circulating Tumor DNA Analysis Guiding Adjuvant Therapy in Stage II Colon Cancer." The New
England Journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2200075
Token Terminal. Master Protocol Revenue. Data as of 01/03/22.
TradingView. Total Crypto Market Cap. Data as of 01/17/23. tradingview.com
Tsotsis, A. 2012. "Facebook’s IPO: An End To All The Revenue Speculation." TechCrunch.
https://techcrunch.com/2012/02/01/facebook-ipo-facebook-ipo-facebook-ipo/
Twitter, Inc.. Corporate filings. Data as of 12/30/22. https://investor.twitterinc.com/financial-information/secfilings/default.aspx
UCS 2022. "UCS Satellite Database." UCS. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database
Unified. Sensor Tower Total Time Spent. Data as of 01/02/23.
United Launch Alliance. Atlas V. Data as of 01/19/23.
https://web.archive.org/web/20161203124622/https://www.rocketbuilder.com/start/configure
Unstoppable Domains. Domains Registered. Data as of 01/16/23. https://unstoppabledomains.com/about
US Department of the Treasury 2022. "U.S. Treasury Sanctions Notorious Virtual Currency Mixer Tornado Cash." US
Department of the Treasury. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916
Vadas, A. et al. 2021. "Special Report: The Evolution of Biomarker Use in Clinical Trials for Cancer Treatments." The
Journal of Precision Medicine. https://www.thejournalofprecisionmedicine.com/the-journal-of-precisionmedicine/special-report-the-evolution-of-biomarker-use-in-clinical-trials-for-cancer-treatments/
VanderMeulen, R. et al. 2015. "High Capacity Satellite Communications - Cost-effective Bandwidth Technology."
Space Symposium, Technical Track. https://www.spacesymposium.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/10/R.VanderMeulen_31st_Space_Symposium_Tech_Track_paper.pdf

152

Venigalla, A. et al. 2022. "Mosaic LLMs (Part 2): GPT-3 quality for <$500k." Mosaic ML.
https://www.mosaicml.com/blog/gpt-3-quality-for-500k
Virginia Lottery. Sports Betting. Data as of 12/30/22.
https://www.valottery.com/aboutus/casinosandsportsbetting/sportsbetting
Welch, D. 2022. "GM’s Cruise Expands Robotaxi Service to Phoenix and Austin Even With Safety Probe." Bloomberg
L.P. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/gm-s-cruise-expands-robotaxi-service-amidfederal-safety-probe?sref=1f7Aj053
Wessling, B. 2022. "Cruise starts daytime robotaxi rides in San Francisco." WTWH Media LLC.
https://www.therobotreport.com/cruise-starts-daytime-robotaxi-rides-in-san-francisco/
Wetterstrand, K. 2021. "The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome." National Human Genome Research Institute.
https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost
White, J. et al. 2017. "Ford to cut costs $14 billion, invest in trucks, electric cars: CEO." Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-ceo/ford-to-cut-costs-14-billion-invest-in-trucks-electriccars-ceo-idUSKCN1C82NL
Wikipedia 2023. "Size of Wikipedia." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Size_of_Wikipedia
Wilhelm, A. 2013. "What Are The Revenue Targets Snapchat Must Meet To Be Worth $3 Billion?." TechCrunch.
https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/13/what-are-the-revenue-targets-snapchat-must-meet-to-be-worth-3billion/
Winton, B. 2021. "Solar Battery Bitcoin." GitHub, Inc.. https://github.com/ARKInvest/SolarBatteryBitcoin
World Health Organization. Global health estimates: Leading causes of DALYs. Data as of 01/17/23.
https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/global-healthestimates-leading-causes-of-dalys
Worldpay, LLC 2017. "Global Payment Report." Worldpay, LLC. https://idoc.pub/documents/global-payment-report2017-worldpay-6ngevv9p6jlv
Worldpay, LLC 2018. "Global Payments Report." Worldpay, LLC. https://offers.worldpayglobal.com/rs/850-JOA856/images/Global%20Payments%20Report_Digital%202018.pdf?
Wouters, O. et al. 2020. "Estimated Research and Development Investment Needed to Bring a New Medicine toMarket, 2009-2018." JAMA Network. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762311
Wyoming Gaming Commission. Online Sports Wagering Revenue Reports. Data as of 12/30/22.
https://gaming.wyo.gov/resources/revenue-reports/osw
Z Holdings. Investor Relations. Data as of 01/17/23. https://www.zholdings.co.jp/en/ir/library/indicator/main/0/teaserItems1/00/linkList/0/link/en2022q2_kpi.xlsx
Zhang, P. 2022. "Baidu's robotaxi platform Apollo Go provides 196,000 rides in Q1, up over 11 times from a year ago."
CnEVPost. https://cnevpost.com/2022/05/26/baidus-robotaxi-platform-apollo-go-provides-196000-ridesin-q1-up-over-11-times-from-a-year-ago/
Zhao, Y. et al. 2011. "NELSON lung cancer screening study." National Library of Medicine.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3266562/
Zviran, A. et al. 2020. "Genome-wide cell-free DNA mutational integration enables ultra-sensitive cancer
monitoring." National Library of Medicine. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32483360/

BIG IDEAS 2023: DISCLOSURE

153

For more research on disruptive innovation visit www.ark-invest.com©2021-2026, ARK Investment Management LLC. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of ARK
Investment Management LLC (“ARK”).
Please note, companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so
and/or may face political or legal attacks from competitors, industry groups, or local and national governments.
ARK aims to educate investors and to size the potential opportunity of Disruptive Innovation, noting that risks and uncertainties may impact our projections and research models. Investors should
use the content presented for informational purposes only, and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, and risks related to Deep Learning, Digital Wallets, Battery
Technology, Autonomous Technologies, Drones, DNA Sequencing, CRISPR, Robotics, 3D Printing, Bitcoin, Blockchain Technology, etc. Cryptocurrency Risk. Cryptocurrencies (also referred to as“virtual currencies” and “digital currencies”) are digital assets designed to act as a medium of exchange. Cryptocurrency is an emerging asset class. There are thousands of cryptocurrencies, the mostwell-known of which is bitcoin. Cryptocurrency generally operates without central authority (such as a bank) and is not backed by any government. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state
and/or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in the U.S. is still developing. The market price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been
subject to extreme fluctuations. Similar to fiat currencies (i.e., a currency that is backed by a central bank or a national, supra-national or quasi-national organization), cryptocurrencies are
susceptible to theft, loss and destruction. Cryptocurrency exchanges and other trading venues on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and, in most cases, largely unregulated and may
therefore be more exposed to fraud and failure than established, regulated exchanges for securities, derivatives and other currencies. Cryptocurrency exchanges may stop operating or permanently
shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which may also affect the price of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency Tax Risk. Many significant aspects of the U.S. federal income tax
treatment of investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are uncertain and still evolving.
The content of this presentation is for informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice. This presentation does not constitute, either explicitly or implicitly, any provision ofservices or products by ARK and investors are encouraged to consult counsel and/or other investment professionals as to whether a particular investment management service is suitable for
their investment needs. All statements made regarding companies or securities are strictly beliefs and points of view held by ARK and are not endorsements by ARK of any company or security
or recommendations by ARK to buy, sell or hold any security. Historical results are not indications of future results. Certain of the statements contained in this presentation may be statementsof future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The matters discussed in this presentation may also involve risks anduncertainties described from time to time in ARK's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ARK assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information containedin this presentation. Certain information was obtained from sources that ARK believes to be reliable; however, ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information
obtained from any third party. ARK and its clients as well as its related persons may (but do not necessarily) have financial interests in securities or issuers that are discussed.
ARK Investment Management LLC