Hydrogen
EconomyOutlook
Key messages
March 30, 2020

Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Contents
Key messages

1

About us

11

Table of figures
Figure 1: Summary of the economics of a hydrogen economy ......................... 1
Figure 2: The many uses of hydrogen .............................................................. 2
Figure 3: Forecast global range of levelized cost of hydrogen production fromlarge projects .................................................................................................... 3
Figure 4: H2 transport costs based on distance and volume, $/kg, 2019............ 4
Figure 5: Estimated delivered hydrogen costs to large-scale industrial users,
2030 .................................................................................................................. 5
Figure 6: Estimated delivered hydrogen costs to large industrial users, 2050 .... 5
Figure 7: Marginal abatement cost curve from using $1/kg hydrogen foremission reductions, by sector in 2050 .............................................................. 6
Figure 8: Levelized cost of steel: hydrogen versus coal..................................... 7
Figure 9: Total cost of ownership of SUVs in the U.S., 2030 ............................. 7
Figure 10: Levelized cost of electricity of hydrogen-fuelled turbine power
plants ................................................................................................................ 7
Figure 11: Potential demand for hydrogen in different scenarios, 2050 ............. 8
Figure 12: Indicative estimate of the ability for major countries to generate 50%
of electricity and 100% of hydrogen from wind and PV in a 1.5 degree
scenario ............................................................................................................ 9

Table of tables
Table 1: Hydrogen storage options.................................................................... 3
Table 2: Seven signposts of scale-up toward a hydrogen economy ................ 10

On April 23, BNEF made two changes to this report. This version corrects a rounding error
in the cost range of renewable hydrogen displayed on page 2 and updates Figure 12 to
exclude some countries.

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Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Key messages
Hydrogen is a clean-burning molecule that could become a zero-carbon
substitute for fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors of the economy. The cost of
producing hydrogen from renewables is primed to fall, but demand needs to becreated to drive down costs, and a wide range of delivery infrastructure needs
to be built. That won’t happen without new government targets and subsidies.
These are the key messages of BNEF’s Hydrogen Economy Outlook, which
provides a global, independent analysis and outlook for a hydrogen economy.

A full copy of the Hydrogen Economy Outlook is available for BNEF clients (web | terminal). It
draws together analysis and key findings from 12 studies published in 2019 and 2020 from
BNEF’s Hydrogen Special Project. The full suite of BNEF research on hydrogen is alsoavailable for clients on the hydrogen theme page (web | terminal).

Figure 1: Summary of the economics of a hydrogen economy

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Clean hydrogen refers to both renewable and low-carbon hydrogen (from fossil-fuels with CCS).
Abatement cost with hydrogen at $1/kg (7.5/MMBtu). Currency is US dollars.

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1Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Meeting climate targets is likely to require a clean molecule
Renewable electricity can help reduce emissions in road transport, low-temperature industrial
processes and in heating buildings. However, fossil fuels have a significant advantage inapplications that require high energy density, industrial processes that rely on carbon as areactant, or where demand is seasonal. To fully decarbonize the world economy, it’s likely a clean
molecule will be needed and hydrogen is well placed to play this role (Figure 2). It is versatile,
reactive, storable, transportable, clean burning, and can be produced with low or zero emissions.
Figure 2: The many uses of hydrogen

Source: BloombergNEF

Renewable hydrogen is currently expensive, but costs are coming down
In 2018, over 99% of hydrogen was made using fossil fuels, but hydrogen can also be produced
cleanly using renewable electricity to split water in an electrolyzer. With the cost of wind and solar
continuing to fall, the question is whether the cost for electrolyzers and renewable hydrogen canfollow. While they are still expensive in Western markets, there are encouraging signs. The costof alkaline electrolyzers made in North America and Europe fell 40% between 2014 and 2019,
and Chinese made systems are already up to 80% cheaper than those made in the west. Ifelectrolyzer manufacturing can scale up, and costs continue to fall, then our calculations suggest
renewable hydrogen could be produced for $0.7 to $1.6/kg in most parts of the world before 2050.
This is equivalent to gas priced at $6-12/MMBtu, making it competitive with current natural gas
prices in Brazil, China, India, Germany and Scandinavia on an energy-equivalent basis, andcheaper than producing hydrogen from natural gas or coal with carbon capture and storage(Figure 3).

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2Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Figure 3: Forecast global range of levelized cost of hydrogen production from large
projects
2019$/kg$/MMBtu

5.0

37.2

4.5

33.5

Renewable H2

4.0

29.8
Low Carbon H2(Coal with CCS)

3.5

26.0

3.0

22.3

2.5

18.6

2.0

14.9

1.5

11.2
Low Carbon H2(Natural gas with CCS)

1.0

7.4

0.5

3.7

0.0

0.0
2019
2

1

2030
4

3

2050
6

5

Source: BloombergNEF. Note renewable hydrogen costs based on large projects with optimistic
projections for capex. Natural gas prices range from $1.1-10.3/MMBtu, coal from $30-116/t.

Transporting and storing hydrogen needs massive infrastructure
investment
Hydrogen’s low density makes it considerably harder to store than fossil fuels. If hydrogen were to
replace natural gas in the global economy today, 3-4 times more storage infrastructure would
need to be built, at a cost of $637 billion by 2050 to provide the same level of energy security.
Storing hydrogen in large quantities will be one of the most significant challenges for a futurehydrogen economy. Low cost, large-scale options like salt caverns are geographically limited, andthe cost of using alternative liquid storage technologies is often greater than the cost of producing
hydrogen in the first place (Table 1).
Table 1: Hydrogen storage options
Gaseous state
Salt caverns

Liquid state

Solid state

Depletedgas fields

Rockcaverns

Pressurized
containers

LiquidhydrogenAmmonia

LOHCs

Metal
hydridesMain usage(volume andcycling)

Largevolumes,monthsweeks

Large
volumes,seasonal

Mediumvolumes,monthsweeks

Small
volumes,daily

Small medium
volumes,days-weeks

Large
volumes,monthsweeks

Large
volumes,monthsweeks

Small
volumes,days-weeks

BenchmarkLCOS ($/kg)1

$0.23

$1.90

$0.71

$0.19

$4.57

$2.83

$4.50

Not
evaluated

Possiblefuture LCOS1

$0.11

$1.07

$0.23

$0.17

$0.95

$0.87

$1.86

Not
evaluated

Geographicalavailability

LimitedLimitedLimitedNot limited

Not limited

Not limited

Not limited

Not limited

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: 1 Benchmark levelized cost of storage (LCOS) at the highest reasonable cycling rate (see detailed
research for details). LOHC – liquid organic hydrogen carrier.

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3Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Low density also makes hydrogen expensive to transport via road or ship. However, hydrogen
flows nearly three times faster than methane through pipes, making this a cost-effective option forlarge-scale transport (Figure 4). But for hydrogen to become as ubiquitous as natural gas, a huge,coordinated program of infrastructure upgrades and construction would be needed, as hydrogenis often incompatible with existing pipes and systems.
Figure 4: H2 transport costs based on distance and volume, $/kg, 2019
Volum e (tons/day)
1,000

Transmission pipelines

Large

NH3

0.05

100

0.05 - 0.10

0.10 - 0.58

3+

0.58 - 3.00
Ships

Distribution pipelines

Mid

NH3

10
Sm all1
Verysm all0.05 - 0.06

0.06 - 0.22
Trucks

CGH2

CGH20.65 - 0.76

0.68 - 1.73

CGH2

CGH2

0.65 - 0.76

0.68 - 1.73

0.22 - 1.82

< 3.00

CGH2 /
LOHC

LOHC

0.96 - 3.87

3+Unviable

3.87 - 6.70

CGH2 /
LOHC

LOHC

0.96 - 3.87

Unviable

3.87 - 6.70

0
1

Local

10

Urban

100

Inter-city

1,000

Distance (km)Inter10,000
continental

Legend: Compressed H2 Liquid H2 Ammonia . Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers .
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: figures include the cost of movement, compression and associatedstorage (20% assumed for pipelines in a salt cavern). Ammonia assumed unsuitable at small
scale due to its toxicity. While LOHC is cheaper than LH2 for long distance trucking, it is less likely
to be used than the more commercially developed LH2.

A scaled-up industry could deliver hydrogen for a benchmark cost of$2/kg in 2030 and $1/kg in 2050 in many parts of the world
Hydrogen is likely to be most competitive in large-scale local supply chains. Clusters of industrial
customers could be supplied by dedicated pipeline networks containing a portfolio of wind- andsolar-powered electrolyzers, and a large-scale geological storage facility to smooth and buffer
supply. Our analysis suggests that a delivered cost of green hydrogen of around $2/kg($15/MMBtu) in 2030 and $1/kg ($7.4/MMBtu) in 2050 in China, India and Western Europe isachievable. Costs could be 20-25% lower in countries with the best renewable and hydrogenstorage resources, such as the U.S., Brazil, Australia, Scandinavia and the Middle East. However,cost would be up to 50-70% higher in places like Japan and Korea that have weaker renewable
resources and unfavorable geology for storage (Figure 5 and Figure 6).

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4Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Figure 5: Estimated delivered hydrogen costs to large-scaleindustrial users, 2030
$/kg
3.0
2.5

1.48

Australia PV$21/MWh

Japan wind
$47/MWh
China wind
$28/MWh

0.0
Low

$/kg

$/MMBtu
22.3

3.0$/MMBtu
22.3

18.6

2.5

14.9

2.0

11.2

1.5

7.4

1.0

0.84

3.7

0.5

Australia PV$12/MWh

China wind
$17/MWh

0.0

0.0
Low

Mid

StorageTransport
Production

18.6
1.74

Rock cavern

Salt cavern

1.0
0.5

Rock cavern

1.97

2.0
1.5

2.85

StorageTransport
Production

Figure 6: Estimated delivered hydrogen costs to large
industrial users, 2050

Mid

High

14.9
11.2

1.01
Japan wind
$33/MWh

7.4
3.7
0.0

High

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Power costs depicted are the LCOE used for electrolysis, and are lower than the BNEF’s standard
LCOE projections in 2050 due to savings from integrated design of the electrolyzer and generator, and anticipated additional
learning from increased renewable deployment for hydrogen production. Production costs are based on a large-scale alkaline
electrolyzer with capex of $135/kW in 2030 and $98/kW in 2050. Storage costs assume 50% of total hydrogen demand passes
through storage. Transport costs are for a 50km transmission pipeline movement. Compression and conversion costs are included
in storage. Low estimate assumes a salt cavern, mid and high estimate a rock cavern for both 2030 and 2050.

Policy is critical
Reaching a delivered hydrogen cost of $1/kg will require massive scale-up in demand as well as
cost declines in transport and storage technologies. And while hydrogen is a hot topic right now,there is little government policy currently in place to help this happen. Policy measures are
generally focused on expensive road transport applications, and programs are poorly funded. The
more promising use cases in industry are only funded with one-off grants for demonstration
projects. For the industry to scale up, demand needs to be supported with comprehensive policy
coordinated across government, and the roll-out of around $150 billion of cumulative subsidies to
2030.

…and so is carbon pricing
Even at $1/kg, carbon prices or equivalent measures that place a value on emission reductions
are still likely to be needed for hydrogen to compete with cheap fossil fuels in hard-to-abate
sectors. This is because hydrogen must be manufactured, whereas natural gas, coal and oil need
only to be extracted, so it is likely always to be a more expensive form of energy. Hydrogen’s
lower energy density also makes it more expensive to handle. But if the required policy is in place,up to 34% of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and industry could be abated usinghydrogen – 20% for less than $100/tCO2 (Figure 7).

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5Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Figure 7: Marginal abatement cost curve from using $1/kg hydrogen for emission reductions, by sector in 2050

Carbon price ($/tCO2)
180

Space and water heating

160

Shipping

140

MethanolGas power generation

120

Glass
Aluminum
Ammonia

100
80

Cement60
Zero-cost
ab atement

40

Steel
Oil
refining

20
Cars Buses Trucks
0
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11
12
GtCO2/year

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: sectoral emissions based on 2018 figures, abatement costs for renewable hydrogen delivered at$1/kg to large users, $4/kg to road vehicles. Aluminum emissions for alumina production and aluminum recycling only. Cement
emissions for process heat only. Refinery emissions from hydrogen production only. Road transport and heating demand emissions
are for the segment that is unlikely to be met by electrification only, assumed to be 50% of space and water heating, 25% of lightduty vehicles, 50% of medium-duty trucks, 30% of buses and 75% of heavy-duty trucks.

Hydrogen is a promising emissions reduction pathway for the hard-toabate industry sectors
The strongest use cases for hydrogen are the manufacturing processes that require the physicaland chemical properties of molecule fuels in order to work. Hydrogen can enable a switch awayfrom fossil fuels in many of these applications at surprisingly low carbon prices. For example, at$1/kg, a carbon price of $50/tCO2 would be enough to switch to renewable hydrogen in steel
making (Figure 8), $60/tCO2 to use renewable hydrogen for heat in cement production, $78/tCO2
for ammonia synthesis, and $90/tCO2 for aluminum and glass manufacturing.

But its role in transport should be focused on trucks and ships
Hydrogen can play a valuable role decarbonizing long-haul, heavy-payload trucks. These could
be cheaper to run using hydrogen fuel cells than diesel engines by 2031. But the bulk of the car,bus and light-truck market looks set to adopt battery electric drive trains, which are a cheaper
solution than fuel cells (Figure 9). In our view, the fuel cell vehicle industry will also be the mostexpensive sector to scale up, requiring $105 billion in subsidies to 2030. For ships, green
ammonia from hydrogen is a promising option, and could be competitive with heavy fuel oil with acarbon price of $145/tCO2 in 2050.

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6

Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Figure 8: Levelized cost of steel: hydrogen versus coal$/tsteel
800

Green H₂
2050

Green H₂
2030

Cost of steel madeusing hydrogen

750
700

Coal@$310/t

650
600

Cost range of steel
made using coal

550
500

Coal@$60/t

450

Figure 9: Total cost of ownership of SUVs in the U.S., 2030$/mile
0.90
0.80
0.70

0.67

0.60

Fuel,
O&M

0.53

0.50

0.41

0.40
0.30

400

0.20

350

0.10

300

0.56

Capex

0.00
0

1

2

3

4
$/kg H₂

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: levelized costs do not include
carbon prices.

FCEV FCEV Weak Policy Strong Policy

BEV

ICE

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: FCEV – fuel cell electric vehicle,
BEV – battery electric vehicle, ICE – internal combustion engine.

A hydrogen supply chain could deliver carbon-free dispatchable power
With large-scale geological storage in place, hydrogen could be produced from renewable powerthat would otherwise be curtailed, stored and transported back to a generator at a cost of $814/MMBtu by 2050 in most locations. If gas turbines are hydrogen-ready, a carbon price of$32/tCO2 would be enough to drive fuel switching from natural gas to hydrogen, and generateclean, dispatchable power at a competitive price (Figure 10). Producing hydrogen from excess
renewable electricity would reduce waste and help to deliver a zero-emissions electricity system.
Figure 10: Levelized cost of electricity of hydrogen-fuelled turbine power plants$/MWh (2018 real)
500
456
450
400
356
350
300
275
250
239
200

291
237
206

187
183

150
100
50
0

119

154
119

97
2019

2030

2050

HydrogenPeaking (OCGT)

2019
N. Gas

80
2019

2030

2050

Hydrogen

102
35
2019
N. GasLoad following (CCGT)

Source: BloombergNEF Note: ‘N. Gas’ is natural gas. Natural gas LCOEs vary with fuel price: $2(low) to $7 (mid) and $12/MMBtu (high) and do not include a carbon price.

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7

Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Hydrogen could meet up to 24% of the world's energy needs by 2050
If supportive but piecemeal policy is in place, we estimate that 187 million metric tons (MMT) of
hydrogen could be in use by 2050, enough to meet 7% of projected final energy needs in a
scenario where global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees. If strong and comprehensive policy is inforce, 696MMT of hydrogen could be used, enough to meet 24% of final energy in a 1.5 degree
scenario. This would require over $11 trillion of investment in production, storage and transport
infrastructure. Annual sales of hydrogen would be $700 billion, with billions more also spent on
end use equipment. If all the unlikely-to-electrify sectors in the economy used hydrogen, demand
could be as high as 1,370MMT by 2050 (Figure 11).
Figure 11: Potential demand for hydrogen in different scenarios, 2050

Total energy: 195EJ
Total H2 demand: 1370MMT
Buildings
106MMT

Space andwater heating

Power
439MMT

Peaking
power
CementSteel
Glass
Aluminum
Oil refining
MethanolAmmonia
Cars
Buses
Light trucks

Industry
515MMT

Transport
524MMT

99EJ
696MMT
53MMT
219MMT
123MMT
27EJ
187MMT

Heavy
trucks301MMT

Ships
Theoretical max

Strong Policy

21MMT
6MMT
37MMT
123MMT

Weak Policy

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Aluminum demand is for alumina production and aluminum recycling only. Cement demand is forprocess heat only. Oil refining demand is for hydrogen use only. Road transport and heating demand that is unlikely to be met byelectrification only: assumed to be 50% of space and water heating, 25% of light-duty vehicles, 50% of medium-duty trucks, 30% ofbuses and 75% of heavy-duty trucks.

Producing hydrogen at the scales required will, however, be challenging
Meeting 24% of energy demand with hydrogen in a 1.5 degree scenario will require massive
amounts of additional renewable electricity generation. In this scenario, around 31,320TWh ofelectricity would be needed to power electrolyzers – more than is currently produced worldwide
from all sources. Add to this the projected needs of the power sector – where renewables are also
likely to expand massively if deep emission targets are to be met – and total renewable energy© Bloomberg Finance L.P.2020

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8

Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

generation excluding hydro would need to top 60,000TWh, compared to under 3,000TWh today.
China, much of Europe, Japan, Korea and South East Asia may not have enough suitable land to
generate the renewable power required (Figure 12). As a result, trade in hydrogen would benecessary. Although more expensive, hydrogen production from fossil fuels with CCS may stillneed to play a significant role, particularly in countries like China and Germany that could be shorton land for renewables but are well-endowed with gas and coal.
Figure 12: Indicative estimate of the ability for major countries to generate 50% of electricity and 100% of hydrogen fromwind and PV in a 1.5 degree scenario

Sufficient resource
Insufficient resource

Source: BloombergNEF, Baruch-Mordo et. al, 2019. Note: Green = Country has sufficient estimated solar and wind resources and
Red = Country has insufficient resources to generate 50% of electricity and 100% of hydrogen by 2050. The methodology used toestimate potential renewable generation is conservative, and may underrepresent achievable generation in specific locations. In
some countries the estimate for potential generation is below current levels. These countries are not given a sufficiency rating.

The signs of scale-up are not yet there, but investors should keep watch
for seven signposts
Hydrogen has experienced a hype cycle before, and right now, there is still insufficient policy tosupport investment and to scale up a clean hydrogen industry. But with a growing number ofcountries getting serious about decarbonization, this could change. Investors should watch out for
the following key events to help determine whether a hydrogen economy is emerging: 1) net-zeroclimate targets are legislated, 2) standards governing hydrogen use are harmonized andregulatory barriers removed, 3) targets with investment mechanisms are introduced, 4) stringent
heavy transport emission standards are set, 5) mandates and markets for low-emission products
are formed, 6) industrial decarbonization policies and incentives are put in place and 7) hydrogenready equipment becomes commonplace (Table 2).

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9Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

Table 2: Seven signposts of scale-up toward a hydrogen economy
Event

Effect1) Net-zero climate targets are legislated

Makes it clear that the hard-to-abate sectors will need to decarbonize2) Standards governing hydrogen use are
Clears or minimizes obstructions to hydrogen projects
harmonized and regulatory barriers removed
3) Targets with investment mechanisms are
introduced

Provides a revenue stream for producers, increases competition, builds capacityand experience, and gives equipment manufacturers confidence to invest in plant4) Stringent heavy transport emissions
standards are set

Provides an incentive for manufactures to produce, and users to buy, fuel cell
trucks and ammonia-powered ships

5) Mandates and markets for low-emission
products are formed

Provides an incentive for manufacturers to produce low-emission goods (e.g.
steel, cement, fertilizers, plastics) that will often require the use of hydrogen6) Industrial decarbonization policies andincentives are put in place

Helps to coordinate infrastructure investment and scale efficient use of hydrogen.
Provides incentives for hydrogen use

7) Hydrogen-ready equipment becomes
commonplace

Enables and reduces the cost of fuel switching to hydrogen

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10Hydrogen Economy Outlook
March 30, 2020

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