CANON INSTITUTE OF GLOBAL STUDIES“THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND U.S.-JAPAN RELATIONS”
October 11, 2016
Glen S. Fukushima
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
Former President, American Chamber of Commerce in Japan
Former Deputy Assistant United States Trade Representative for Japan and China

I. Introduction
A. Background
B. Personal, not official, views
II. 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
A. 2015
Preparation
B. Feb. 1, 2016
Iowa caucus
C. July 18-21, 2016 Republican National Convention (Cleveland, OH)
D. July 25-28, 2016 Democratic National Convention (Philadelphia, PA)
E. Nov. 8, 2016
Election Day
F. Jan. 20, 2017
Inauguration of 45th president
III. Republican Party (GOP)
A. Candidates (17)B. Mainstream vs. outsiders
C. Donald Trump phenomenon
D. Future of the GOP
IV. Democratic Party
A. Candidates (5)B. Hillary Clinton
C. Bernie Sanders
D. Future of the Democratic Party
V. Three Surprises
A. Donald Trump (fear, anxiety, anger, “Crippled America”)
1. Economy: unemployment, wages, inequality, “rigged system”
2. Globalization: trade, immigration, terrorism, losing control
3. Politics: dysfunction in Washington, DC
4. GOP opposition to Obama; distance from activist base; party discipline
5. Outsider as new, reformer, change agent
6. Mainstream candidates attacking, eliminating each other; underestimating Trump
7. Mass media; social media
8. Race: tipping point in 2040s
B. Bernie Sanders (“We need a political revolution!”)
1. Economy, globalization, politics
2. Wall Street, “billionaires”
3. End of the Cold War and socialism; millennials
4. Outsider as new, reformer, change agent
5. Distrust of Hillary Clinton
C. Trade (TPP)
1. Obama Administration
2. Congress
3. Labor unions, NGOs, NPOs, economists
4. Trump, Sanders, Clinton
5. Lame duck session; Supreme Court nomination
VI. Issues
A. Economy
B. Terrorism
C. Domestic policy
D. Foreign policy
E. Energy, climate change
F. Issues vs. personality, character, temperament, likeability, trustworthiness2VII. General Election
A. Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine (“Stronger together”)
B. Donald Trump & Mike Pence (“Make America Great Again”)
C. Others: Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party), Jill Stein (Green Party), etc.
D. TV debates (President: 9/26, 10/9, 10/19; Vice President: 10/4)
VIII. Congress and the Supreme Court
A. Senate (54 vs. 46)
B. House of Representatives (247 vs. 188)
C. Supreme Court (4 vs. 4)
IX. U.S.-Japan Relations
A. Obama Administration: Aso, Hatoyama, Kan, Noda, Abe
B. Hillary Clinton
1. Secretary of State: Nakasone, Okada, Maehara, Matsumoto, Gemba
2. Asia Pivot/Rebalancea. Strengthen bilateral security alliancesb. Deepen working relationships with emerging powers
c. Engage with regional multilateral institutions
d. Expand trade and investment
e. Forge a broadly-based military presence
f. Advance democracy and human rights
C. Donald Trump
1. Employment
2. Trade agreements
3. Currency manipulation
4. Free rider on national security
5. “Unpredictability” as a virtue
6. Questions: priorities, feasibility, appointments/nominations
X Japan: Republicans and Democrats
A. 1960s
B. 1970s
C. 1984
D. 2016
XI. Conclusions
A. Public opinion polls (methodology, national, state-by-state for electoral college)
B. Prospects
1. White House
2. Senate
3. House
4. Supreme Court
5. Republican Party
C. Implications for Japan
References:1.

中央公論

なぜ、トランプは日本が嫌いなのか (5/2016)

2.

国際問題

<http://www2.jiia.or.jp/kokusaimondai_archive/2010/2016-06_003.pdf> (6/2016)

3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

週刊ダイヤモンド
東洋経済
東洋経済
東洋経済
東洋経済

<http://diamond.jp/articles/-/89507> (4/14/2016)<http://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/111668> (3/31/2016)<http://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/117025> (5/8/2016)<http://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/127438> (7/18/2016)<http://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/137517> (9/26/2016)8.

Forbes Japan

アメリカは TPP を批准するか (7/2016)9.

Forbes Japan

クリントン対トランプ (8/2016)

10. Forbes Japan
11. Forbes Japan
12. Forbes Japan

行政府と、二つの権力 (9/2016)
米国大統領選挙と副大統領 (10/2016)
クリントノミクス II (11/2016)