Political outlook report
12 September 2024
Executive summary•Prime Minister Kishida disbanded his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
Diet faction in the wake of a political funds scandal that emerged
last November. Other factions subsequently announced theirdissolution, with the exception of the Aso faction. Kishida aimed torestore public support for his administration by dismantling thefaction-based political system, which had long symbolized the LDP.
However, public distrust in politics remains strong, and Kishida’s
approval rating has not recovered.

•Faced with the possibility of defeat in the next House ofRepresentatives election, sentiment within the LDP shifted against
Kishida. Amid this backlash, on 14 August he announced that hewould not run in the September LDP presidential election.

•The official campaign period for the leadership contest will begin on
12 September and conclude with voting and ballot counting on 27
September. Opinion polls show Shinjiro Koizumi and Shigeru Ishibaleading a field of nine prospective candidates. Other likely
contenders include Sanae Takaichi, Taro Kono, Takayuki Kobayashi,Yoshimasa Hayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Katsunobu Kato and Yoko
Kamikawa. The contest is expected to emphasize selecting a newface for the party ahead of a potential House of Representatives
election this autumn.

•This will be the first LDP presidential election in which faction
dynamics do not play a major role, with multiple candidates who
previously belonged to the same faction expected to enter the race.
Many Diet members have announced support for candidates who
previously belonged to a different faction, further underscoring theLDP’s departure from faction politics. Lawmakers will look to select apopular president who can improve the party’s standing ahead of the
anticipated snap election. Candidates backed by influential party
members are also expected to perform well in the leadership contest.

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It is likely that no candidate will secure a majority in the first round of voting,triggering a run-off between the top two candidates. In this scenario, thecandidate who can better appeal to supporters of defeated candidates willsecure an advantage.

Outlook for the LDP presidential election•After a Cabinet meeting held on 15 August, Kishida actively urged lawmakers
interested in participating in the election to put their name forward, statingthat he wanted to see “a free debate.” In press conferences held the same day,the Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono; the Minister of Economy,
Trade and Industry Ken Saito; and the Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko
Kamikawa all touched on possible leadership bids.

•Prospective candidates in the LDP presidential election must be nominated by20 Diet members before they can declare their candidacy. The endorsement ofparty heavyweights such as Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida islikely to be a key factor influencing the election outlook.

•Kobayashi officially announced his candidacy on 19 August, followed by Ishibaon 24 August and Kono on 26 August. As of 12 September, Hayashi, Motegi,Koizumi, Takaichi, Kato and Kamikawa have entered the race. Koizumi, who
has secured the support of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, held a press
conference on 6 September to announce his bid. Takaichi ran in the lastpresidential election held in 2021 with the backing of former Prime MinisterAbe. Although she lost access to that support following his assassination, sheappears to have solidified support primarily among conservative members.

•A total of 734 votes are up for grabs in the presidential election. Of these, 367
are individual votes cast by Diet members, while the other 367 comprise votes
from rank-and-file party members, calculated using a proportional weighting
system. If a candidate gains a majority in the first round of voting, he or she will
be elected as the new party president. However, should no candidate gain adecisive majority in the first round, the top two candidates will participate in a
run-off ballot. In the run-off, all LDP Diet members are allocated one vote,while the 47 LDP prefectural chapters are allocated one vote each. In such ascenario, the outcome depends on which of the top two candidates is mostsuccessful in gaining the support of candidates defeated in the first round ofvoting.

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According to media polls conducted in late August, Koizumi and Ishiba areperceived as best suited to be the next leader of the LDP. An Asahi Shimbun
survey found both Koizumi and Ishiba backed by 21% of respondents, followedby Takaichi at 8%, Kamikawa at 6%, Kono at 6%, and Kobayashi at 5%. In aYomiuri Shimbun survey, Ishiba led with 22%, followed by Koizumi at 20% andTakaichi at 10%. Candidates popular with voters or supported by influential
party members are thought to have an advantage in the leadership contest.

•In the wake of the political fundraising issue, the Abe faction, Nikai faction, andKishida faction all decided to disband, while the Motegi faction has
transitioned into a policy group. Meanwhile, Hiroshige Seko, former SecretaryGeneral of the LDP’s Upper House caucus, resigned from the LDP following
punishments issued over the scandal in April. Instead of backing candidates
with common factional lineage, many Diet members have endorsed
candidates who previously belonged to different factions.

Outlook for the possible snap general election•An extraordinary Diet session will likely be called within a few days of the LDP
leadership election on 27 September. The new president will then be
appointed prime minister by the Diet and will announce the members of his or
her Cabinet. The subsequent political schedule will depend on developmentsin the Diet and other factors.

•At the time of writing, the most likely scenario is that a general election iscalled immediately after the new Cabinet is launched. After the inaugurationof a new prime minister, the government is likely to move to enact revisions tothe Public Offices Election Act during the extraordinary Diet session. The primeminister would then dissolve the Diet and schedule a general election in midOctober. In this case, the official campaign period could potentially begin on 15October with voting to take place on 27 October or begin on 29 October withvoting on 10 November. Key themes likely to dictate the campaign include thefeasibility of true change within the LDP and regaining public trust. However,the current term of House of Representatives members is until autumn 2025.
Depending on the situation in the Diet, this gives some leeway to allow forchanges in the timing of the dissolution and snap election.

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK REPORT | LAST UPDATED ON 12 SEPTEMBER 20243