3rd International Conference on Fuel Ammonia 2023
29 September 2023
Hitotsubashi Auditorium

Issues and Challenges of FuelAmmonia in EAS Region
Shigeru Kimura
Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs

Contents• Introduction of EAS Energy Outlook• Outlook Results of LCET-CN Scenario of ASEAN
and Other 7 Countries• Issues of Hydrogen and Fuel Ammonia in EAS
region• Potential Demand of Fuel Ammonia in ASEAN
Power Sector• Advantage of Fuel Ammonia• Conclusions

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What’s EAS Energy Outlook?
• EAS stands for East Asia Summit and one of fora in AsiaPacific region like APEC (Asia Pacific EnergyCooperation)• EAS member countries consists following two groups;– ASEAN: 10 MS– +8: Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand,and Russia & the United Dates joined later in 2012
– But EAS Energy Outlook just covers its 17 countries exceptRussia• EAS Energy Outlook has been updating since 2008 andits purpose is to assess effectiveness of aggressive EEC
and RE targets being reported by EAS countries under
the workstream 1 of EAS-ECTF and EAS-EMM3

What’s EAS Energy Outlook?
• EAS Energy Outlook produces two scenarios
applying econometrics approach; BAU and APS,and APS reflects aggressive EEC and RE targets
reported by EAS countries• Energy saving and CO2 reduction potentials aredefined as BAU – APS in terms of energy
consumptions and CO2 emissions• Latest EAS Energy Outlook updated in 2021-22
tries to produce Low Carbon Energy Transition –Carbon Neutral (LCET-CN) additionally;– Accomplish carbon neutral by 2050 or 60– Carbon neutral is defined as CO2 emission from fossil
fuel combustion < carbon offset by forest
4

What’s EAS Energy Outlook?

• EAS Energy Outlook produces future energy balance tablesof each EAS country until 2050;– Primary supply sector: production of primary energy isexogenous and demand-supply balance is taken by net import(+: import, -: export)– Transformation sector: power generation by each power source
is defined as assumed parameters which are installed capacity,capacity factor, thermal efficiency, etc.
– Final energy consumption sector: energy demand is induced byeconomic activities which are divided into industry, transportand residential-commercial sectors;• Ex. Electricity demand in industry sector = f(IIP, electricity price forindustry /WPI, lag)• This presentation shows forecast of ammonia demand inpower sector until 2050 based on the EAS Energy Outlook
results to focus on ASEAN 10 countries.
5

Final Energy Consumption
ASEAN

Mtoe

7000

1400

-15%

1200

1000
800

EAS +7Mtoe

-18%

+19%

6000

-24%

-36%

5000

2.6 times

4000

600

3000

400

2000

200

1000

00BAU
2019
CoalAPS

2019

2050
OilGasHydrogenElectricity

BAU

LCET-CNHeatOthers

In ASEAN, TFEC of BAU will increase significantly
at 2.6 times from 2019 to 2050 due to stableeconomic growth assumption (4.1% PA in 201950) but APS will decline 15% from BAU in 2050
and LCET-CN will also decline 24% due toaggressive EEC targets. However, TFEC of LCETCN in 2050 will be still more than 2019 and it will
be double of TFEC in 2019.

CoalAPSLCET-CN2050
OilGasHydrogenElectricity

HeatOthers

In EAS+7, TFEC of BAU will increase just 19% in
2019-50 even though 3.2% of economic growthassumption. On the other hand, APS willdecrease 18% from BAU in 2050 and LCET-CN
will decrease 36% from BAU due to aggressive
EEC targets. As a result, TFEC of APS in 2050 will
be 2% lower than 2019 land LCET-CN will be 23%lower than 2019.

Key Finding: Innovative EEC is indispensable in terms of technology and policy for achievingcarbon neutral in EAS region especially EAS+7. In addition, electrification will contribute topromote energy saving.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-226Final Energy Consumption (Share)
ASEAN

EAS +7

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%10%0%

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
BAU
2019
CoalAPSLCET-CN

2050
OilGasHydrogen

ElectricityBAU2019

HeatOthers

In ASEAN, share of fossil fuel, in case of BAU andAPS, will be around 65% compared to 69% in 2019
but LCET-CN will reduce to around 40%. On theother hand, electricity share will increase to 26% by
2050 from 21% in 2019, in case of BAU and APS, aswell as 37% of LCET-CN. Hydrogen will start to be
consumed after 2040 in final sector, and its sharewill be 11% of TFEC in LCET-CN .

CoalAPSLCET-CN2050

OilGasHydrogenElectricity

HeatOthers

In EAS+7, fossil fuel share of BAU and APS will be60% and 52% in 2050 respectively compared to 65%
in 2019 but LCET-CN will sharply decline to 34%. On
the other hand, electricity share of BAU, APS andLCET-CN will increase 33%, 39%, 51% in 2050
respectively compared to 24% in 2019. Hydrogenuse in final sector will be appeared in 2050 and its
share will be 6% but absolute value of hydrogen use
will be more than double from ASEAN.

Key Finding: Hydrogen and electrification across the sectors are also importantenergy transition technologies to accomplish carbon neural in final sector.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-227Power Generation
TWhTWh

ASEAN

4500
3500

3000
2500

Others

-16% +33%

4000

Geothermal

30000

25000

Hydropower

3.6 times

WindSolar

2000

EAS +7-2%+16%

Geothermal

1.6 times

Hydropower

20000

WindSolar

15000

Nuclear

Nuclear

1500

Hydrogen/Ammonia

1000

Gas PP with CCS

500

10000

Hydrogen/Ammonia
Gas PP with CCS

5000

Gas PP

Gas PP0BAU
2019

APS
2050

LCET-CNOil PP

Oil PP

0BAU

Coal PP with CCS
Coal PPPower generation in ASEAN region willincrease 3.6 times from 2019 to 2050 in BAU
due to significant increase of electricity
demand in this region but APS will decrease
16% from BAU due to EEC promotion. LCETCN will increase again 33% from APS for
shifting electricity from fossil fuel asmentioned before.

Others2019

APS

LCET-CN

2050

Coal PP with CCS
Coal PPIn EAS+7, power generation of BAU will
increase 1.6 times from 2019 to 2050 due toelectricity demand growth and APS will bealmost same as BAU because electricity
demand of APS will be same as BAU in 2050(refer to the previous slide). But LCET-CN in
2050 will surely increase 16% from APS dueto electrification.

Key Finding: Due to remarkable electrification in final sector, power generation
will also largely increase in LCET-CN compared to BAU and APS in 2050.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

8

Power Generation (Share)
ASEAN

EAS +7
100%

100%

Others90%

Others90%

80%

Geothermal

80%

70%

Hydropower

70%

60%

Wind

60%

Wind

50%

Solar

50%

Solar

40%

Nuclear40%

Nuclear30%

Hydrogen/Ammonia

30%

Hydrogen/Ammonia

20%

Gas PP with CCS20%Gas PP with CCS

10%

Gas PP

10%

Gas PP0%

Oil PP

0%BAU
2019APS2050

LCET-CN

Geothermal
Hydropower

Oil PP

Coal PP with CCS

Coal PPIn ASEAN, coal and gas power generation share of APS in2050 will decrease to 59% from 79% in 2019 due to its
EEC and RE targets and LCET-CN will accomplish furtherdecrease to 47% by 2050 but share of ordinary thermal
plant (without CCS) will be only 5%. On the other hand,
VRE(Solar & Wind) share will increase to 15% in APS and23% in LCET-CN by 2050. RE share including hydropowerand geothermal will also increase to 40% in APS and45% in LCET-CN by 2050.

BAU
2019

APSLCET-CN

2050

Coal PP with CCS

Coal PPEAS +7 will achieve to shift from fossil fuel to renewableenergy. Share of thermal power generation was 68% in2019 and it will sharply decline to 28% in APS and 14%
in LCET-CN by 2050. On the other hand, VRE share in2019 was 8% but it will increase to 43% in APS and 50%
in LCET-CN by 2050. In LCET-CN, nuclear power sharewill be 14% in 2050 and on the other hand, hydrogenshare will be 5%. In 2050, thermal power plant with CCS
will be just 9%.

Key Finding: ASEAN will continue to depend thermal power plants and finally it attaches CCS
to both coal PP and Gas PP to reduce CO2 emissions. On the other hand, EAS +7 will shift toVRE (solar/wind) and nuclear from thermal power generation.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

9Primary Energy Supply
ASEAN

Mtoe
1800
1600

-18%

2.6 times

EAS +7

Mtoe
Others

-3%

10000
9000

+18%

Others-19%

Biomass/Biofuel

8000

Solar/Wind

7000

1000

Geothermal

6000

800

Hydropower

600

Nuclear400

Hydrogen/Ammonia

2000

Hydrogen/Ammonia

200

Gas

1000

Gas

Oil0

1400
12000
BAU
2019

APS2050

LCET-CN

Coal

TPES of ASEAN will increase 2.6 times from 2019 to2050 in BAU. Due to promotion of EEC and RE, it will
decrease 18% from BAU to APS in 2050. However,
LCET-CN will be same as APS in 2050, but its contents
are quite different from APS. In addition, TPES ofLCET-CN will be still double from its 2019 level.

-16%

Biomass/Biofuel
Solar/Wind
Geothermal

5000

Hydropower

4000

Nuclear

3000

BAU
2019

APS

LCET-CN

2050

Oil
Coal

TPES of EAS +7 will increase 18% from 2019 to 2050
in BAU. Due to the same reason of ASEAN, it willdecrease 19% from BAU to APS in 2050. LCET-CN will
decrease continuously 16% from APS. Consequently,
TPES of LCET-CN in 2050 will be about 80% of its
2019 level.

Key Finding: In LCET-CN, TPES of ASEAN will be almost same as APS in 2050 but EAS +7 willbe 16% lower than APS. LCET-CN will increase electricity demand and generation largely
from APS due to electrification. ASEAN will continuously depend on fossil fuel generation at
47% in 2050, on the other hand, EAS +7 will depend on fossil fuel at just 14% in 2050. Thismight reflect to bring this different result in addition to different EEC targets..
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

10Primary Energy Supply
EAS +7ASEAN
100%

Others90%

100%

Others90%

80%

Biomass/Biofuel

80%

Biomass/Biofuel

70%

Solar/Wind

70%

Solar/Wind

60%

Geothermal

60%

Geothermal

50%

Hydropower

40%

Nuclear30%

50%

Hydropower

40%

Nuclear30%

20%

Hydrogen/Ammonia

20%

Hydrogen/Ammonia

10%

Gas

10%

Gas

Oil

0%0%BAU
2019

APS2050

LCET-CNCoal

Fossil fuel share of ASEAN in 2019 was 83% and it
will slightly increase 85% until 2050 in BAU. Fossil
fuel share of APS in 2050 will decrease 71% as well
as 56% in LCET-CN. RE’s share in 2019 was 16% but
it will increase to 33% until 2050 in LCET-CN but its
share of VRE (solar/wind) will be just 7% in 2050. In
ASEAN, modern use of biomass such as wood chips
for power generation and biofuels for transport will
still contribute reduction of CO2.

BAU2019APSLCET-CN2050

OilCoalFossil fuel share of EAS +7 in 2019 was 84% andit will decrease 79% until 2050 in BAU. Fossil fuelshare of APS in 2050 will decrease 62% as well as
43% of LCET-CN. RE’s share in 2019 was 11% but
it will increase to 38% until 2050 in LCET-CN. It
will reflect significant increase of VRE share at
23% in 2050. EAS +’’s nuclear share at 17% in
2050 will also contribute CO2 reduction

Key Finding: ASEAN will depend fossil fuel and its share of LCET-CN in 2050 will be 56% but
CCS will be attached to coal and gas PP mostly. On the other hand, EAS +7 will shift fromfossil fuel to RE (38%) especially VRE (23%) and nuclear (17%) in 2050.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

11CO2 Emissions
Mt-CMt-C

ASEAN

+8%

6000

1400
1200
1000

EAS +7

5000-35%

2.8 times

-46%

4000

800

-65%

600

400

3000

-76%

2000

1000

200

00

BAU

APS

2019

2050

CoalOilBAU

LCET-CNGas

CO2 emissions of ASEAN was 424 Mt-C in 2019and it will increase 2.8 times until 2050 underBAU, which will be 1,177 Mt-C. APS in 2050
will decrease 35% from BAU but it will be still
higher than 2019. LCET-CN in 2050 willdecrease 65% from APS and it will be 264 Mt-C
and much lower than 2019.

APS2019

LCET-CN2050
CoalOilGas

CO2 emissions of EAS +7 was 5,181 Mt-C in2019 and it will increase just 8% until 2050
under BAU. APS in 2050 will decrease 46%from BAU and LCET-CN will decrease 76% fromAPS and it will be 725 Mt-C and just 14% of
CO2 emissions in 2019.

Key Finding: ASEAN CO2 emissions of BAU will increase 2.8 times from 2019 to 2050 but EAS+7 will just increase 8% in 2019-50. However, LCET-CN’s CO2 emissions of both ASEAN andEAS +7 in 2050 will be much lower than 2019, in other words, accomplishment of carbon
neutral by 2050.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

12CO2 Emissions
Historical Trend of CO2 Emissions (LCET-CN)
Mt-C

ASEAN

Mt-C
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

EAS +7

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2019

2030
Coal2040
Oil2050

Gas

In LCET-CN of ASEAN, CO2 emissions in 2019 willkeep the amount (424 Mt-C) until 2040 and afterthat its CO2 emissions will largely decrease to264 Mt-C until 2050 due to aggressive EEC andelectrification in final sector and increase of zeroemission power sources and CCS for thermal
power generation.

20192030

Coal2040

Oil2050Gas

CO2 emissions of EAS +7 was 5,181 Mt-C in 2019and LCET-CN will decrease its CO2 emissions year byyear and eventually its CO2 emissions will be 725
Mt-C until 2050. This results reflect aggressive EEC
and electrification in final sector and increase ofzero emission power sources which are VRE(Solar/wind), hydro and nuclear power.

Key Finding: ASEAN will keep 2019 level of CO2 emissions until 2040 and after that rapidly
reduce CO2 emissions to 2050 (40% from 2040). On the other hand, EAS +7 will reduce its
CO2 emissions year by year surely (67% from 2040).
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-22

13

Hydrogen• Hydrogen demand
ASEAN

Mtoe

EAS +7

Mtoe

400

1600

350

1400

300

1200

250

1000

200

800

150

600

100

400

50

200

0020192030

Final Use

2040

Power Use

2050

2019

2030
Final Use

2040

2050

Power Use

Hydrogen is one of zero emission fuels, and it can be combusted like fossil fuel. Thus, it canbe used across the sectors; for heating boiler and furnace in industry sector, for transport fuelin transportation sector, for heating water, space heating in residential & commercial sector
and combusting fuel in power sector. Hydrogen will start to consume by both final and power
sectors from 2030 and fuel use for power will be dominant in 2050 both ASEAN and EAS +7.
Key Finding: Hydrogen will be used for power generation mainly in both ASEAN
and EAS +7 but hydrogen’s contribution to carbon neutral will be limited not likeCCS.
Source: EAS Energy Outlook 2021-2214Hydrogen vs CCS in ASEANLCET-CN in 2050

Energy Consumption of LCET-CN in 2050

100%
90%80%70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%

1600
1400
1200
1000

800
600
4002000
ASEAN
Thermal PP wo CCS

Thermal PP with CCS

EAS+7
Hydrogen PP

Nulcear PP

ASEAN
RE PP

EAS+7
CoalOil

GasHydrogen• In ASEAN, thermal PP with CCS will be attractive compared to hydrogen PP
and for EAS+7, RE and nuclear will be main power sources compared tothermal PP with CCS and hydrogen PP.
• But hydrogen consumption of LCET-CN in 2050 will be higher than fossil
fuel consumptions in both ASEAN and EAS+7. Hydrogen is recognized by
EAS countries as a new fuel indispensably for contributing carbon neutral.
15

Issues of Hydrogen / Fuel Ammonia• The reasons why EAS especially ASEAN countries
will not select hydrogen / fuel ammonia as analternative combustive fuel;– Energy use of hydrogen /fuel ammonia is not wellrecognized in ASEAN countries;• Hydrogen / fuel ammonia use for power PP are not existing
commercially so far• Hydrogen consumption as transport fuel is considered but
limited due to hard competition of BEV• High cost of blue and green hydrogen / fuel ammonia– On the other hand, CCS is becoming popular in ASEAN
region due to presence of Asia CCUS Network16

Forecast of Ammonia Cofiring Power Generation in ASEAN
LCET-CN Scenario

TWh4500

4000
3500
3000
2500

2000
1500
1000
500

0

Coal PP

2019

2030

Coal PP w ammonia

Oil PP

Gas PP2040

2050

Gas pp w ammonia

RE & Others

We assume ammonia cofiring ratio at both coal PP and gas PP 10% by 2030, 30% by 2040
and 60% by 2050. Forecasted power generation by ammonia cofiring coal PP and gas PP ofLCET-CN scenario in 2050 will be 414 GWh (276 GWh of wo ammonia) and 799 GWh (532GWh wo ammonia) respectively.

Source: Author

17

Forecast of Ammonia Consumption in ASEAN
LCET-CN Scenario

Mtoe
400
350
300
250
200
150

100
500

Coal

2019

2030

GasAmmonia consumption at Coal PP

2040

2050

Ammonia consumpiton at Gas PP

In this regard, forecasted ammonia consumption by coal PP and gas PP of LCET-CN scenario
in 2050 will be 91 Mtoe and 133 Mtoe respectively.

Source: Author

18

Forecast of CO2 Emissions Reduction applying Ammonia in ASEAN
LCET-CN Scenario

M-tC
1200

1000

272 Mt-C

800
600

596 Mt-C

37 Mt-C

400
2000

wow Ammonia
wow Ammonia
wow Ammonia
Ammonia
Ammonia
Ammonia
2019

2030

2040
Coal PP2050

Gas PPAmmonia cofiring at coal PP and gas PP will bring following CO2 emissions reduction; 37
Mt-C in 2030, 272 Mt-C in 2040 and 596 Mt-C. CO2 reduction effect by ammonia of 596
Mt-C in 2019 will be much bigger than current ASEAN CO2 emissions at 424 Mt-C in 2019.

Source: Author

19Hydrogen Carrier• There are three hydrogen carriers mentioned below;– MCH: hydrogenation and de-hydrogenation• Liquefy hydrogen by chemical reaction using toluene• Compression ratio: 1/500– LH2: Liquefaction and regasification• Liquefy hydrogen by high pressure (-253 degree Celsius, compress ratio
1/800)– NH3: 3H2 + N2 = 2NH3 and direct combustion• Haber-Bosch process• Easy to change to liquid ammonia• Advantage of fuel ammonia (NH3);– Existing material being traded– Direct consumption (no need of de-hydrogenation andregasification)

20

Conclusions• Hydrogen and fuel ammonia will contribute to reduce CO2 emissions in final
energy consumption sectors and power sector in EAS region. Because both
fuels are combusted same as fossil fuels but not emit CO2.
– Alternate fossil fuel.

• Need to increase awareness of fuel ammonia through holding forum,
conference and workshop in ASEAN region.
• Demonstrate use of fuel ammonia such as power generation in ASEAN region.
• Initiate fuel ammonia cofiring coal power generation at low cofiring level suchas 5-10% and gradually raise the cofiring ratio year by year.
=> Increase fuel ammonia demand gradually to mitigate cost of fuelammonia• Key factors for cost down of fuel ammonia;– Expand fuel ammonia demand => seek for new demand– Innovative production technologies of fuel ammonia• Shift from Haber-Bosch process to ?

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Thank you for your attention!!

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