Development of impact and adaptation assessment
model to support adaptation decision-making- Overview of project -Huicheul JUNG(KEI), Dong-Kun LEE(SNU)

CONTENTS

 Overview of project Approach to project Contents and schedule

Overview of project Objectives:(1) to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation measures by sector(2) to support the national and local adaptation planning considering uncertainty of projection
 Period & Budget: 2014.5 – 2017.4 (650 million won/year) Project Manager: D.K. LEE (SNU)
 Considerations

 Target regions: National, provincial and county-level scale, Target periods: 2030s, 2050s, 2100s
 Target sectors: Forest, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Ecosystem, Water Resources3

Overview of project: Characteristics
1. Scientific approach to assess sector’s impacts- Bottom-up approach to consider local characteristics of adaptation- Quantitative assessment of effectiveness of adaptation options

2. Probabilistic approach to assess uncertainty of future projection- Assessing uncertainties from the impact and cost estimation- Using simplified impact model representing the results of complicated models

3. Economic approach to assess the feasibility of adaptation options- Estimating the cost of risk and adaptation, and benefit of adaptation- Developing sector-based assessment method (ex. Benefit transfer method)

4. Integrated approach to support local adaptation decision-making- Developing the web-based platform to find the effective and efficient
adaptation in the local government (ex. ClimSave, AIM-Policy etc.)4Approach to project (1): Framework
Sub1
Sub2

Adaptation Inventory

Common Scenario DB

Developing impact/adaptation assessment methods by Sector
SUB2

Forest

HealthDisasterAgri.

EcosystemWater
Resource

Impact Assessment by Sector
Adaptation Assessment by Sector
Economic Assessment by Sector

Decision Supporting System

Simple Impact
Assessment Model

Supporting effective and efficient adaptation by sector and region
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Approach to project (2): Participants’ activities(Sub1)(Sub2)

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Contents and Schedule
Sub-Topic 1(SNU)

Sub-Topic 2(KEI)

Developing common
Scenario DB &Adaptation inventory

FY2014
Impact Assessment(Forest, Health, Disaster,Agri)

Cost of Impact Analysis(Forest, Health, Disaster,Agri)FY2015

Cost of Impact Analysis(Ecosystem, Water)

SimpleImpact/Adaptation
model development

Adaptation Assessment(Forest, Health, Disaster,Agri)

Cost of adaptation(Forest, Health, Disaster,Agri)

Cost of adaptation(Ecosystem, Water)

Decision supportingsystem development

FY2016
Identify Adaptation priority and pathway

Components of decision supporting system
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Contents and Schedule
Research contents

Components of decision supporting system
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Contents and Schedule(3): Decision supporting system

 Downscaled 4 RCP scenarios based on 4 different types of RCM(1km, daily) for sectors
 CMIP5 GCM results(4 RCP, monthly) for probabilistic impact model, AIM-Policy etc.

 Simple impact model based on the results from complicated model with/without adaptation
 impact generation performance : impact function, impact table, meta-model(ANN) consider the feedback effects between sectors
 MCDC simulation to estimate the probability of impact events based on meta-model Web-based platform to display and share the in- and out-puts from sectoral assessment (’14~)
 Review the existing platform: ex. ClimSave, AIM-Policy etc.

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Huicheul JUNG (hchjung@kei.re.kr)
Dong-Kun LEE (dklee7@snu.ac.kr)