The 5th JEF-KRA Global Risk Symposium‘Managing the global politico-economic crisis under the COVID-19
pandemic and searching for solutions’As North East Asian and Indo-Pacific countries respond to the growing
influence of China in the new international order, could the UK’s post-Brexit“Global Britain” strategy end up being a “White Knight” for the democraticcamp?
17:00 -19:00 (JST), Wednesday 13 and Thursday 14 October 2021
Japan Economic Foundation (JEF) and Komatsu Research & Advisory (KRA) coorganised the fifth Global Risk Symposium to analyse the continually changing
international climate from a multifaceted perspective. Due to the ongoing nature of
the COVID-19 pandemic, for the second time, it was held as an online conferencewith simultaneous interpreters over two consecutive days. Speakers joined from 4
countries: Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the Republic of Seychelles.
The symposium was held under the Chatham House Rule to encourage frank
discussions among the speakers and the audience. An exclusive audience of 50
people including government officials, businesspersons, researchers, scholars andmedia personnel attended the event.
The following is a summary of the symposium produced with the permission of the
speakers.

Opening Remarks by Mr. Masakazu Toyoda, Chairman and CEO, Japan
Economic Foundation
Mr. Toyoda thanked the audience for joining the online symposium and briefly
explained JEF’s recent activities and the thinking behind holding the annual
symposium.
The World is facing this Covid-19 pandemic, we are into the second year but soon,
we will enter into the post-pandemic era, leaving the co-existing with Covid era. So,
we need to think about the future and what would be the global risks, for instance1) The growing influence of China in the new international order
2) The significance of Indo-Pacific co-operation viewed from the UK after leaving the
EU and3) The unstable situation in the Korean peninsula.
COP26 is also around the corner, we also need to think about the impact comingfrom efforts to counter climate change, so we will have a two-day symposium withthese topics in mind.
On day one, we will hear about how will the UK participating in the Indo-Pacificcooperation, which seems to confront the belt and road initiative promoted by China,
and how will the African nations that are extensions of the two initiatives develop in1

the future? We need to think about the Global Britain initiatives from the British
perspective and analysis will be shared from Dr. Komatsu principal of Komatsu
Research & Advisory (KRA). Minister Peter Sinon a former Minister for Industry,
Investments and Natural Resources is going to talk about the Seychelles point ofview, and we will have other distinguished speakers to join the panel discussion, andalso, we will have Q&A.
On day two, Mr. Mike King a former senior British police officer is going to talk about
the emergence of China from the British point of view. And after that we are going tohear from Dr. Dong Yong Sueng former member of the council of the policy advisor
to the President of South Korea and also member of the council advisor on theforeign security policy to the Blue House about the trend on the Korean Peninsula
and its impact on East Asia which is another concern in Asia. How the measure forclimate change is going to impact all of these situations and is it going to mitigate
geopolitical changes or is it going to heighten tensions? I think we will hear very
interesting presentations. And as on the first day we will have other distinguishedspeakers to join the panel discussion, and also, we will have Q&A.
Co-existence with the pandemic or the post pandemic, and how the world economy
is going to recover, and how we are going to stabilise the geopolitical situation andprepare a good environment for businesses. So, Japan needs to work together withother countries to solve common issues.
I hope that today’s and tomorrow’s symposium will be insightful and enlightening for
all of you here.

Guest Speaker: Minister Kuniko Inoguchi, Member of the Parliament, theHouse of Councillors, Minister of State for Gender Equality and Social Affairsof Japan (2005-2006)
Minister Inoguchi spoke from her experience as a member of the House ofCouncillors, as a professor of international politics at Sophia University and asJapan’s Disarmament Ambassador extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Geneva.
Traditionally, risks when investing and trading abroad were treated as “country risk”
but nowadays with a more bird’s-eye geopolitical perspective, cross-national risks
that require dealing with issues multilaterally have to be taken into account as “global
risks”. How the UK will serve as a global balancer in the future, and how Japan will
be able to contribute in this regard will be at the core of the thinking of this
symposium.
The Fumio Kishida Cabinet has been launched and the former Vice Minister ofDefence, Takayuki Kobayashi, has been appointed to the newly established post of
Minister in charge of Economic Security.
Global risk, from an economic and security point of view, is addressed under thefollowing regimes:
With regard to nuclear fissile material, there is the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG),
which is a system in place for non-proliferation issues. With regard to weapons ofmass destruction, there is the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) for chemical2

agents and the Biological Weapons Convention for biological agents. For missiles,
there is the MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime). And finally, we have theWassenaar Arrangement (WA) for controlling the export of widely traded dual use
technologies, such as semiconductors. These international regimes were introduced
after the end of the cold war, and it will be important for the UK and Japan tocontribute towards these regimes in accordance with new developments intechnology. This is a very low-key area, in which not only the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MOFA) but also the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) havebeen involved for a long time. The world is about free trade, when promoting TPP
and EPA, in some cases, there will be dangerous materials and technologies
involved. It is thanks to the existence of international experts in export control, thatthe promotion of free trade is possible. Continuing to update and strengthen theseregimes will be the 101 of economic security.
Biological and chemical weapons have been banned completely, however, the issue
is that, during various processes there are chemical agents that can be utilised fordual use, so the full safeguarding of laboratories is a challenge.
Under those prohibition conventions, with international co-operation, there is aclause stating that assistance will be provided to those vulnerable countries who
cannot ensure the safeguarding. With these international laws and treaties in placeand everyone co-operating, what is needed is to recognise the fact that, until
everyone is safe, no one is safe. So, even if a country has joined an international
treaty, it is necessary to provide assistance to such countries, therefore there aremany roles Japan and the UK can play within the context of being a “White Knight”.
Covid-19 is inflicting a high toll. Even during the process of developing a vaccine,
there is a possibility of handling biological agents. It may be important to help eachother using these international treaties to ensure the safeguarding of laboratories.
Further to that, what the new minister in charge of economic security would need totackle would be as follows. For example, with climate change, Greenland’s
permafrost has melted, and it might become the case that rare resources which were
inaccessible before, become accessible and countries may start fighting over such
resources. Under such circumstances, the UK, Japan and the US could create a sortof international arrangement for climate change and rare resources which allows forinternational orderly access for rare resources. For the second resource battle
following the first fossil fuel resource battle, there will be further new multifaceted
challenges.
The other is an important economic security concept, that when new technology isinvented and developed it is necessary to prevent it from being imitated. Dr. Vernon
and others have come up with an economic theory, the Product Life Cycle theory,
whereby it is impossible in the long run to completely have a monopoly and prevent
technology from being taken, and so it becomes important to create a lead-time
where the inventors can make enough profit.
Also, in relation to the pandemic, unless the vaccines and curative medications aresupplied to all, ultimately no one will be able to escape the risks. In the past, there
were arguments that free trade or a stable currency regime as international public
goods were the responsibility of great powers, today, however, global order is3something that is created together and not only by great powers. A shift in thinking isneeded and to treat and provide vaccines and curative medications as international
public goods for humankind.
The other large risk is climate change, and it is possible for a significant number ofpeople who are not “refugees” under the refugee convention to become displaced. It
was said that people become refugees after conflict, but nowadays, they become
refugees from hunger or poverty. For such reasons, climate change, movement ofpeople, these are also types of global risk and if the situation is mismanaged, it
becomes a risk.
Furthermore, when you look at the case of Afghanistan, still in this era, there aresome countries who still need to work on nation building and the international
community should offer a helping hand. The quintessence of nation building is tohave security capability to prevent terrorists from harbouring within its national
territory or territorial sea, that is what national sovereignty is all about.
The Kishida Cabinet has made it clear that it is focusing on human rights andhumanitarian affairs, and it is necessary to consider how to handle ethnic minority
issues not only in Myanmar, but also in Afghanistan and parts of China.
To prevent nuclear proliferation, there is the NTP treaty, and the next conference
which had been postponed is scheduled to be held next January, and it is achallenge to make it successful. At the end, there are new frameworks such as
AUKUS led by powerful Anglosphere elites and France is showing irritation. With therise of China, it is important to make sure alliances are not divided. It is necessary to
reduce global risks so that it is possible to maintain freedom, democracy, and therule of law, as a whole.
Minister Inoguchi closed the guest speech by touching on the subject of CPTPP in
relation to regional economic co-operation in the Pacific. Furthermore, theUK expressed interest in participating in the CPTPP which is a great thing, but at thesame time, China and Taiwan applied to join to the CPTPP. The CPTPP is aregional trade agreement aiming for a high degree of trade freedom and it should beclarified to China that it cannot join without strictly accepting the condition ofobserving the rules of free trade. With the CPTPP just born, and without the US
joining, Japan has brought the CPTPP with 11 member countries to where it is now,
and, the UK as “Global Britain” is now going to collaborate with us. I think it isprobably necessary to give time for membership countries, for all of us, to see thisnew powerful framework continue to take its first steps.

Presentation Title: Concept of this Global-Risk Symposium
Speaker: Dr. Keiichiro Komatsu, Principal, Komatsu Research & Advisory(KRA)
Dr. Komatsu explained the purpose of this symposium, which was held for the 5thtime this year (2021). First, he spoke about how in general, industries tend to focus
too much on the minutiae, and thus, have limited literacy when looking at the big
picture, especially global politico-economic risks. For example, many Japanesebusinesspersons are able to explain in great detail about exchange rates, stock4

prices etc. for up to around a week ago, but when it comes to how the exchange rate
was half a year ago, many have no recollection. This is in some ways inevitable,
when we are caught up in daily life and are very busy. However, if we are not able tosee the big picture this is often the reason why we are not able to recognise the realissues in front of us.
On the other hand, many international political academics are knowledgeable in theirfield but not so when it comes to economics or how the industries are moving, andso interdisciplinary literacy in both economic and international political perspectives
need to be enhanced. That is the purpose of this symposium.
When looking for the symposium speakers, we always look for the person who has
the capacity to look back 2000 years and forward 2000 years. We put ourselves in
the middle of a 4000-year period and then discuss from a global perspective
covering both geographical and temporal aspects. Balance is also very important, forexample, with COP26 just around the corner we need to think about the balance ofadjusting pressing issues and long-term issues.
This year's events in Afghanistan offer an example of why longer-term literacy is so
important. In August the Taliban returned to power for the first time in 20 years, there
is an argument that this defeats the purpose of the war that pushed out the Talibanin the first place. The Taliban is a completely Pashtun dominated organisation but
after they took charge of governing the whole country this time, other ethnic groups
have already been appointed and might be represented even further in the cabinet
as the Taliban led government settles.
At the same time, what is running Afghan governance is not just a Western-styleAfghan parliament, there is Jirga (Jerga/Jorga) which is the council system in
Afghanistan consisting of 370 tribal leaders. It is the Jirga’s legitimisation that isalways needed, for what is decided at parliament, or even for the election of theirpresident. 20 years ago, when the Taliban withdrew from the capital Kabul, it was not
for military reasons, but mainly because different Grand Jirga (Loya Jirga) were held
in total four times at that time and decided to expel the Taliban. What cannot beapproved by the Jirga cannot win, and they decided to withdraw. Looking back, thecamp supporting democratising Afghanistan, led by the US, underestimated the
Jirga's actual importance, and did not consider the need for its approval in nationallevel policy. This is an important lesson to be learned.
Post-symposium note by Dr. Komatsu: The word “taliban” literally means“(theological) students” in Pashto (Pashtun language) and idiomatically/customarily“the Taliban” is known as the name of the particular students’ group that emerged as
an armed political body in the middle of the 1990s. Their interpretations of Islamicteaching were more literalist and focused on prioritising what is in the religious script.
Even though both the Taliban and Jirga are strictly Pashtun bodies, Jirga is apolitical system which has been more pragmatic in implementing policies, so a
difference in perspective arose and for this reason, the “theological students’ group”
lost the support of Jirga.
It is thought that Jirga has existed from the time Alexander the Great of Macedonia
conquered Greece and invaded Afghanistan through Persia approximately 2350
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years ago. Since then, the Ghengis Khan led Mongol Empire, the British Empire, theSoviet Union, and the US and many other countries have attempted to invade
Afghanistan, and have withdrawn after fighting against a surprisingly similar style ofguerrilla warfare, from weapons to strategies, used at the time against the invasionof Alexander the Great.

Having a historic perspective is necessary to understand the local situation, not only
for those militarily involved from outside, but also commercially. For example, inSouth Africa, there are Japanese manufacturing companies with factories in theKwazulu-Natal province of South Africa, and after this year's July riots, they havebeen considering whether or not to withdraw from the region. Considering thehistorical background observed in the region, the Zulu people, who had a flourishinggreat empire until the very late 19th century, have been strongly dissatisfied by thehistorical racism they had faced during their time as a colony of the British Empire
which defeated the Zulu Empire, followed by the far more rigid Apartheid system
under the independent South Africa. Even after liberation from Apartheid in South
Africa, suffering through all these historical experiences, the Zulu community havecontinued to aspire to re-establish their own country again. It is true that theKwazulu-Natal area has attractive conditions for industries to invest. Whenbusinesses/investors have this historical and local knowledge, it would be possible topredict the potential riot risk which exists in the region. Thus, it would be possible forbusinesses to prepare and respond to such situations reasonably and also operate
their businesses very successfully.
In January, the UK formally and officially exited the EU, and is pursuing a new
strategy known as "Global Britain"- whether or not the UK could be a "White Knight"
in this context is a key point being discussed at our symposium this year. Within the
UK approximately 55% to 60% of trade and investment is with the EU and when it
exits, there will be new tariffs and other new conditions enforced, meaning it will not
be able to work as before. In light of this, the new strategy that the UK has come up
with is “Global Britain”. Britain will have to look towards its partners in the
Commonwealth comprised of 54 countries, as well as the US, which although not in
the Commonwealth, it was under British suzerainty.
The UK is aiming to relaunch itself as a maritime power by restructuring the“anglophone sphere” of the US and the Commonwealth, and by connecting to the
CPTPP where Japan accounts for around 90% of trade and investment, to rebuild an
anglophone world economic zone. To what extent is the UK serious in this regard? It
has dispatched to the Far East a significant fleet consisting of around 30 military
vessels including HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier, destroyers and submarines.
In fact, it is only the UK and the US in the world which can operate this level of fleet.
In June, a British destroyer sailed through Ukrainian territorial waters off Crimea,
which is occupied by Russia, and it was met with Russian warning shots and bombs
dropped in its path. Despite this, the British destroyer continued its course. Russian
President Vladimir Putin communicated directly to British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson and threatened very seriously that the Russians would “hit the target nexttime”. However, just one week later, a Dutch frigate under the same British
command sailed through the same waters under Russian warning attacks. Thus, the6UK maintains its hard position against Russian aggression on Crimea. On anotheroccasion, the British Secretary of State for Defence said that if the terrorists were to
return, then the UK would immediately send its troops back to Afghanistan. It is theUK saying this, not the US, thus the UK is very seriously coming to the forefront.
In contrast, Japan’s thinking on economic and military matters stops at Japan-US
relations. However, the UK and Japan have a strong existing relationship based ontrust built during the period of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, and it would be
important for Japan to invite the UK to work in the Far East / Indo-Pacific in mattersof economic development and defence. Under these circumstances, the UK
announcing its intention to join the CPTPP is significant. Thailand and Mauritius havealso expressed officially and unofficially their interest in joining the CPTPP. Oncecountries from outside of the Pacific such as Thailand, Mauritius and the UK join thispartnership, the international landscape could change considerably.
Also within the context of Global Britain, COP26 will begin on the 1st of November in
Glasgow, and the UK is trying to launch this conference in a grand manner. However,dealing with surrounding environmental issues is a big task for Japan. After theearthquake and tsunami hit Japan in 2011, 54 nuclear plants were suspended andabout 10 have resumed operations. The new Fumio Kishida Cabinet is saying thatthey will resume operations in 27 of these nuclear plants. This will be challenging
and, even if these 27 do start up again, it is still only half of the 54 that were in
operation previously. Nuclear power generation used to account for approximately
45% of the power supply in Japan. However, after the great tsunami and nuclear
accidents that followed the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, all nuclear
powerplants had to shut down. Japan has just about been managing to avoid
blackouts using almost entirely thermal power and hydropower. Hydropower
accounts for less than 10%, so in terms of reduction of CO2, it is necessary to revive
nuclear power. In the West, thermal power i.e. fossil fuels are seen as evils, as they
produce CO2. Therefore, to use nuclear power is the prevailing argument in Europe
and the US. However in Japan, given the series of serious social experiences inmodern history, there is a strong social phenomenon of being cautious towards
increasing nuclear facilities. The question is, under this current situation, what is thebetter way forward? In this regard, industries in Japan are working on the premisethat it is necessary for Japan to keep thermal power generation, and thus a
considerable level of research and development (R&D) in new technologies aiming
for carbon-neutral use of fossil fuels has already been carried out.
Especially, among the OECD countries, carbon neutrality is targeted by 2050. The
Japanese point of view is that the international community should give a grace
period to developing countries, otherwise that will exacerbate the global North-South
divide (the gap between the global North and the global South in terms of economic
development and wealth) and the developing countries may reach towards China,
causing the carbon zero goal to backfire. That is also the view coming even frominside the UK. Through the development of science and technology, air pollution andother environmental issues have emerged. Would it be possible to also use scienceand technology to meet the challenge of solving those issues? That is a questionthat is being asked by many Japanese. If there is a blackout, in the case of Japanfirstly the steel industry will soon collapse, then the collapse of the automobile

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industry will follow, and Japan will no longer be able to leverage its strength in thisarea.
In terms of overall GDP, the proportion of manufacturing industries is increasing fromaround 21% to 24% in Japan, it is a similar situation in Germany, whereas in the UK
and the US, the proportion is falling from around 9% to 8%, so in these countries,
they do not have such a strong sense of crisis. However, what should Japan andGermany do? This is what is of concern to their industries. There are no developing
countries which can catch up with Japan and Germany in terms of the level ofadvanced technology industries. China is advanced particularly in military technology
as well as related commercial products, but not necessarily in non-military related
advanced technology commercial products. In the long term, the UK, the US andalso the Scandinavian countries in which the share of manufacturers in theirindustries are low will all be in trouble if these manufacturing industries collapse inJapan and Germany. Dr. Komatsu believes that there is some room for Japanesemanufacturing and heavy industry to play an important role and contribute to theinternational economy. Having said that, the issue of climate change is a serious
crisis and unless we try to resolve or at least to ease the situation, we will not be able
to sustain ourselves. This is going to be the serious challenge.
Therefore, as well as geopolitical issues it is the hope of the organisers that
discussions on climate change will be included in this global risk symposium.

Speaker: Minister Peter Sinon, Seychellois Minister for Industry, Investments
and Natural Resources (2010-2015), High Commissioner to South Africa andNamibia, Executive Director at the African Development Bank (2004-2010)

Minister Peter Sinon of Seychelles presented on two main topics: COVID-19 and theworld’s search for solutions; the “Global Britain” strategy and its potential to beconsidered as a “White Knight” for the democratic camp from the point of view of the
Indian Ocean Islander. He also took the opportunity to present Seychelles’ Blue
Economy concept and its achievements in innovative financial mobilisation forsustainable Blue Economy projects and conservation of the ocean and its resources.
Minister Sinon emphasised the global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic that had, atthe time of his presentation, led to 237 million cases and 4.9 million deaths, including
those of his brother and uncle. This extremely high number of deaths is something
we might expect to see from a couple of wars. As part of the solutions for COVID-19,
6.5 billion vaccines had been administered worldwide at the time of his presentation.
He highlighted the disparity in vaccine provision between developing nations anddeveloped nations; against the advice of the WHO, booster vaccines were being
provided to citizens in developed nations before poorer countries were given theability to administer even a first dose to any member of their populations. He showedthat practically the whole of Africa remains largely unvaccinated. To date, all the
proposed solutions continue to be met with certain strong resistances, making the
proposed solutions of COVID-19 quite a challenge to implement, especially indemocracies where ‘freedom of choice’ lies at the heart of the democratic principle.

8This self-preservation mode understandably being adopted by developed countries,
is however eclipsing the promises made for distribution of vaccines to low-income
countries under the Covax mechanism. Those are not being met. In fact, it is being
reported that 100 million vaccine jabs will be expiring in storage in the developed
world at a time when only 3.6% of Africa’s population has been vaccinated. It is said
that in theory, to achieve the elusive herd immunity, a total of 80-100% of the world’s
population needs to be vaccinated and currently, this is only a pipe dream due to thereasons outlined above.
As for the vaccine manufacturing companies, that have invested and developed theirpatented vaccines, they have to realise returns on their investments and fulfil theirprojected profits. Maybe after that is done, they could decide to allow others to
reproduce their patented vaccines. Maybe they could decide to contribute moregenerously to the Covax mechanism to get the poor people of the world vaccinated.
Meanwhile, Air India and Air China have flown into African countries with life-saving
vaccine doses that have been welcomed by the local fire brigade water cannons incountries such as Seychelles. Those vaccines are not recognised by the EU andother developed countries, but they are at least being provided to some frontline
workers and some of the most vulnerable. This is an effective strategy being used by
China and India in order to open doors politically to nations such as Seychelles andothers in their time of uncertainty, fear and need.
With variants such as the Delta Variant, we are seeing that COVID-19 is a smart
virus which is mutating and becoming dramatically more transmissible and lethal withincreased hospitalisations and deaths. These variants may even render the current
vaccines ineffective, and the WHO is still desperately calling on vaccine pledges tomaterialise for the developing world. In fact, mutant strains are more likely to appear
in societies with a large unvaccinated population. Therefore, no matter how
successfully developed countries roll out their vaccination programmes at home, if
large populations remain uninoculated such as in Africa, this will result in new mutant
strains flowing back into those developed countries and the reality is that it is notleading to the eradication of COVID-19 even in developed countries. It is alreadyspreading rapidly and moving the concept of herd immunity almost out of reach,reversing the hope for a return to normalcy in the highly vaccinated countries.
Further divisions are being caused with countries being placed on red lists, borders
being closed, and vaccination passes being issued for circulation within countries.
As issues around climate and refugee crises mount, it will be very difficult if not
impossible for vaccinated rich countries to exist in their newly created bubbles.
People will continue to migrate be it legally or illegally and these new mutatedviruses will spread, meaning our collective ambition to overcome this smart
pandemic will continue to be an elusive one to achieve. Clearly, collective global
solutions are required, as the virus is not waiting for us to wake up to the reality of its
smartness, while some countries continue to look at taking care of themselves first.
The second part of Minister Sinon’s presentation focused on the growing influence ofChina, as well as India, in the Indo-Pacific region and how the role the UK’s “Global
Britain” strategy may come to play in this. He showed the far-reaching influence ofboth China and India in the region and that rivalries between the superpowers are9contested in and around the Indo-Pacific. This has most recently been seen in the
AUKUS pact between Australia, the UK and USA which will see nuclear powered
submarine technology being made available to Australia, to the dismay of France
whose orders from Australia for its submarines were cancelled, causing a loss ofbillions of dollars for them.
There have been developments on the Mauritian island of Agaléga which were
published in the Lowy Institute’s article Agaléga: A glimpse of India’s remote island
military base. The indication is that an Indian military base is being built on the island,
which came much to the perplexment of its inhabitants who were not consulted orinformed. Seychelles has continually said no to foreign military bases including mostrecently with regards to a military base proposed by India on its Assumption Island.
Seychelles successfully strove for full and comprehensive independence with no
British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) that was proposed. The British Indian Ocean
Territory carved the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, whilst in contrast
Seychelles successfully prevented the Aldabra atoll, now a World Heritage Site, frompossibly being converted into a US military base.
Next Minister Sinon spoke to the audience about Blue Economy’s conception in
Seychelles and its importance in the Indo-Pacific region. Being the most affectedvictim of the maritime security threats of the Somali piracy debacle, Seychelles,
whose economy depends on tourism and fisheries, saw the need first to mobilise
and ensure safety and security at sea. It called out to the world and many responded
to deal with the Somali crisis. Seychelles changed its laws to make it possible toreceive caught pirates, prosecute and incarcerate them. They even went to theextent of trying to repatriate and reform the pirates whilst in their prison, prior togoing back to Somalia, so that they could earn a better living when they got back
home.
Other concrete Blue Economy developments in Seychelles include: development ofland-based infrastructure, including the extension of fishing ports which was fundedby Japan for the semi-industrial vessels that fish locally. Seychelles produced thefirst Fisheries Transparency Initiative (FiTI) report in 2020, providing criticalinformation on fisheries’ activities in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) andhighlighting areas for improvement in the sustainable management of its ocean
resources; as well as the completion of the feasibility study for mariculture.
Regarding concrete actions, Seychelles established the world’s first debt-to-natureswap that cancelled US$21 million of Paris Club sovereign debt. This was madepossible with the assistance of “The Nature Conservancy” and philanthropists suchas the Leonardo Di Caprio trust. The funds are being used for sustainable Blue
Economy start-up projects. More funds were raised through the issuance of the “BlueBond”. The funds have gone to the “Seychelles Climate Change and Adaptation
Trust” (SeyCCAT) which co-operates with the Development Bank of Seychelles toselect and qualify projects for financing. This is a template that could be used byother Small Island Developing States.
In a stellar example of upholding peace and security for win-win solution, Minister
Sinon highlighted the example of Seychelles’ successful negotiation with Mauritius to10form the Joint Management Area in the Mascarene Plateau, a large relatively
shallow shelf in the Indian Ocean between the two nations. Instead of going toarbitration, the two island states opted to jointly manage the second largest shallow
plateau of the Indian Ocean. An example that could be studied and replicated in the
Indo-Pacific region where there are a number of cases lined up to be arbitrated.
Seychelles and Mauritius now jointly manage this ocean area of 300,000 square
kilometres. He contrasted this with the situation between Somalia and Kenya whoare still disputing the borders they share in the sea, or that of Mauritius and theMaldives. In its quest to dramatically improve its conservation record and as part ofits commitment for the aforementioned debt-to-nature swap, Seychelles iscompleting the first Maritime Spatial Plan (MSP) in Africa that aims to allocate 30%
of its EEZ’s biodiversity and marine species and designate this area as protected.
Finally, Minister Sinon evaluated the UK’s potential to be a “White Knight” for the
democratic camp in the Indo-Pacific region. He underlined three core principles
being at the heart of the “Global Britain” strategy: (i) being a freer force for ‘good’ forthe world; (ii) promoting and defending human rights, the rule of law and order, anddemocracy; and (iii) the strengthening of the commonwealth, as well as global
strategy of reliable partnerships, such as TPP.
In this context, Minister Sinon highlighted the contrasting situation between Britain’s
professed ideals and their practice with regards to the Chagos Archipelago, including
Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. He explained that both the High Court and theInternational Court of Justice have ruled in favour of Mauritius who has successfullyin theory reclaimed sovereignty over the Chagos archipelago. They aspire to allow
the Chagossi people who were forcefully evicted to return home – at least on someof the islands of the archipelago if not on the US military base on Diego Garcia.
Furthermore, through resolution 73/295, at the United Nations General Assembly,
there was an almost overwhelming vote for Mauritius’ claim of the Chagosarchipelago. Although the UK has been offered room to negotiate an amicablesettlement and offered a 99-year lease for Diego Garcia, the UK and the USA has
thus far not yet responded. Minister Sinon believes that from an Indian Ocean pointof view this demonstrates values which are at odds with the core principles of the“Global Britain” strategy.
The UK has a clear choice to lead the free world with commendable examples ofwhat it professes and upholds, meaning the core values of “Global Britain”, or
continue to feed doubts to possible key allies on their sincerity to those values thatthey publicly pronounce, commit to and promote; they can definitely build a betterand stronger alliance of the Commonwealth and partners if they would pay heed toand uphold the core principles of human rights, the rule of law and mutual respect inpartnerships.
Minister Sinon concluded his presentation by calling on nations to extend help toeach other in order to achieve win-win compromises and strengthen relationships.
Whether it was for the abolition of slavery, whether it was the rally for the fall of the
Berlin Wall, whether it was the tireless campaign to end apartheid in South Africa, allbrought to light by some form of people power and their determination to “do andbuild better” should not be underestimated. It is in that spirit of doing good for theworld that credence will be given to that term “White Knight”. Thus from the point of11view of this islander, there is more work to be done for Britain to claim its position as
the “White Knight” for those who are relatively weaker but generally believers in the‘freedom of choice’ principles that underpin the rule of law and human rights.

Speaker: Mr. Mike King, former British police officer
Mr. Mike King gave his presentation on a number of topics ranging from Britain’s
position in the Indo-Pacific region, to Taiwan, Afghanistan and COP26, as well as
threats in cyber security.
Firstly, from the British perspective, Mr. King explained that after officially leaving theEuropean Union in January 2020, the UK is no longer directed by an EU-centred
foreign policy. Although the results have yet to be seen, Britain is now free to makeits own decisions, its own alliances and its own trade agreements with whomever it
pleases.
Regarding the relations between the UK and China, Mr. King spoke of how thelegacy of former Prime Minister David Cameron left Britain in a very inferior position
to that of China, as Britain welcomed Chinese investment to the point where it
became dangerous. The “golden age” promoted by Cameron is over and ChineseBritish relations are now soured because of the Huawei fiasco and the nuclear
energy muddle. China is being removed from the nuclear energy situation in Britain.
Current Foreign Minister Dominic Raab has denounced China’s behaviour towards
Hong Kong, where disturbances broke out and new security laws were forced on
Hong Kong by China. This breached the Anglo-China Agreement signed in 1984,
and the vaunted “one country, two systems of government” for Hong Kong isessentially over. An international treaty has therefore been violated by communist
China, which from its point of view has done nothing wrong and it regardsinternational treaties and the rule of law as irrelevant to its purposes. Britain has
however, at last done its part for the people of Hong Kong, by providing British
National overseas passports for them to be able to leave and settle in United
Kingdom.
Mr. King warned that China is pursuing a strongly nationalistic policy in the IndoPacific region. The military built up in the area is the largest known in the world.
China now has more ships available to it in the Indo-Pacific region than the UnitedStates navy, it has 10 times the vessels available to it than the United States Navy
has at its disposal. It is now the largest navy in the world with around 40 submarines
patrolling the area. It has nuclear capabilities with which we are all familiar. There
has been a very strong expansion in Chinese power, which has gone largely
unchallenged.
However, the situation changed when Britain decided to start sending one or two
ships trough the Taiwan Strait in what is known as freedom of navigation exercises.
Whilst Britain does not belong to the QUAD, it is a very old friend of the nations who
do belong to it, principally Japan, Australia, India and the United States. The QUAD
alliance is not officially a military alliance, but it is working towards a mutual defence
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pact and will act as a preventative measure against China’s expansion into the IndoPacific region.
Mr. King cautioned that Xi Jinping is much more of an ideologue than previous
Chinese presidents. Seeing himself as the successor to the legacy of Mao Zedong,
he despises democracy and is essentially contemptuous of it. He has repeatedly told
the People's Liberation Army forces to prepare for war, and it is in response to thisthat the QUAD nations have been forced to build up and counter that threat; Japan
has decided that it must increase its defence spending from 1% to 2% of GNP in amove that has been forced upon it by China’s nationalistic foreign policy.
According to Mike King, in the UK the commonwealth relationship was greatly
neglected during the years of the European Union membership, and these ties will
have to be rebuilt for the benefit of all concerned. The QUAD mentioned previously
was the first blow to China, as these nations rallied to work together to protect
themselves and their own interests, and the recent naval exercises gave China amajor fright. The second major fright China received was the recent AUKUS
agreement, because by signing on, Britain has now placed itself at the forefront of
the Indo-Pacific security issues. It is no longer just a sender of ships to the South
China Sea on freedom of navigation patrols. The commitment is now far stronger; itis working with two old and trusted allies in a brand-new alliance, and it is bringing inexpertise in the construction and use of nuclear submarines along with the UnitedStates. The British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth will visit 40 different ports andoutposts on her current voyage, demonstrating a global reach which China does not
yet have, even though conversely it has the world’s largest navy. This can only be agood thing, and it will hopefully demonstrate to China the seriousness of Britain’s
position.
After speaking about China’s agenda in the Indo-Pacific region, Mr. King addressedsome remarks towards the issue of Taiwan. There is a great deal of history whichshows that Taiwan was never an ancient part of China. In fact, it was an island
populated by Polynesian people before any Chinese arrived as individual settlers in
the 1600s and continued to build up from there.
He explained that whilst the UK does not have full diplomatic relations with Taiwan,
informal relations between the two nations are very good. In terms of Taiwan as ademocracy, reforms of a political kind were led in the 20th century by President Lee
Teng-hui, who was educated in Japan and the United States, and was an open
friend and admirer of Japan. Through these reforms Taiwan fought hard for 40 years
to establish a democratic government and the current president Tsai Ing-wen isherself British educated and worked for President Lee in the past.
Mr. King urged that the threat to Taiwan is dangerous for not just Taiwan and its
independence, democracy and freedoms; it is indeed a threat to the world and toworld democracy. Threats of retaking or reuniting China with Taiwan by 2025 havebeen spoken of regularly by Xi Jinping. The building up of atolls and islands in theSouth China Sea area and the Indo-Pacific region, wherever China can establish abase is very worrying, because they are built with warfare in mind - specifically withgun positions, airfields and missile sites all being trained upon Taiwan.

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President Tsai has said that the loss of Taiwan would be a catastrophe, not only toits own people, but to the world. It is a major source of semiconductor production,and it is a defensive bastion for the East China Sea; from a military point of view, itsloss allows China to enter the Pacific region at will. It places Japan, the Okinawa
Islands and the other islands in the region in great danger.
Bonds of friendship will definitely take Taiwan so far but essentially those friends ofthe island nation will likely have to step up if any attack on Taiwan takes place.
Almost a third of global crude oil and over half the global liquid natural gas passes
through the South China Sea each year. Japan alone takes 80 % of its energy
supplies through the East China Sea. Roughly 15 % of the crude oil going throughthe South China Sea goes on to the East China Sea, mostly to South Korea.
The purpose of the QUAD and AUKUS alliances, is to stop China from dominating
the Indo-Pacific region through intimidation or in the worst case, direct force. Britain
must play its part in defending the trillions of dollars in world trade, which passthrough the area and the AUKUS agreement will probably be significant inpreventing hostilities from breaking out in the South China Sea, the East China sea
and the Indo-Pacific region.
Next, Mr. King touched on the events of August 2021 in Afghanistan. He described
the shambolic collapse of the Afghan forces, followed by the hasty withdrawal from
Kabul and the attempts to evacuate the capital as a poor example of what shouldhave been a staunch defence of an allied nation, which was progressing steadily
with the help of the Western powers. The takeover by the Taliban, backed by
Pakistan’s intelligence wing, presents a very real threat to India, which now faces
attacks from China across the Tibetan border, and India has had to respond byplacing around 200,000 troops in position in the Tibet area to stand its groundaccordingly.
With COP26 on the horizon, Mr. King expressed scepticism towards the expectationthat Britain will have a fully electric vehicles fleet by the year 2030. Whilst Britain has
done its part in pollution control and carbon emission issues, he expressed concernthat the goal of going fully electric by 2030 is not achievable in the way things havebeen set out at the present time.
Finally, Mr. King spoke briefly on developments in cyber security and cyber warfare.
He cautioned that Taiwan, for example, is the recipient of millions of cyber-attacks
every day, and Britain many thousands. He anticipates that there will be less kinetic
warfare and that cyber-attacks will be presented as the new way of waging war.
More has to be done in terms of developing technologies to counter these threats.
Mr. King closed his presentation by reiterating the importance of the South China
Sea and the Indo-Pacific region to the world’s economy, and that Britain could dovery well in combining with Japan and its other friends and allies in the area.

Presentation Title: The impact of the second year of pandemic on Korean
Peninsula and East Asia

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Speaker: Dr. Dong Yong Sueng, Former member of Council of Policy Advisors
to the President of the Republic of Korea as well as a member of Council ofAdvisors on foreign and security policy to the BLUE HOUSE; Secretary
General of Good Farmers (NGO)
Dr. Dong’s presentation was structured around three major topics: Phenomena
Occurring in the Second Year of the Pandemic, The Pandemic and the Korean
Peninsula and The Pandemic and East Asia.
As for phenomena occurring in the second year of the pandemic, firstly, headdressed how although we are slowly emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic
through swift vaccine developments and the anxiety towards the COVID-19 has
been relatively eased, a disparity has emerged between the developed anddeveloping world with many poorer countries struggling to procure enoughvaccinations for their citizens. There is also a disparity between countries’ ability torecover from economic recession/downturn. Dr. Dong also warned that somecountries are using the pandemic as leverage for their domestic political gains, North
Korea and China being the extreme examples of this phenomenon.
The other major issue Dr. Dong addressed in this part of his presentation was the
structural changes in the US-China conflict. After the weakening of the US-led global
order, the Biden Administration established its clear position of a “return to normalcy”
and showed how strengthening global network cooperation is high on his agenda,
this has meant that a certain level of order has been restored.
Then, Dr. Dong spoke on the status of the Korean Peninsula over the past 12
months, plus some of the changes that are likely to come about moving forward.
A key development he highlighted was the new path adopted by North Korea after
talks broke down at a summit in Hanoi. The fallout from this summit led North Korea
to adopt a “frontal breakthrough strategy with a mind of self-reliance” in 31
December 2019 and it was reconfirmed at the 8th Party Congress of the WPK in
January 2021.
This involves two five-year plans (2021-2025) for both self-reliant economic
development and defence security development.
In terms of economics, this would see North Korea drawing on its abundantunderground resources including iron, steel and coal, returning to a focus on metaland heavy chemical industries, much as they did during the 1970s. It remains to be
seen if North Korea can achieve self-reliance by these methods, but it is likely thatthey will find significant difficulties in this path. As for defence security, North Korea
plans to ramp up its nuclear weapons programme by resuming operations at its
Yongbyon nuclear complex. In March this year, China and the US confirmed thatthey may work together to counter this nuclear threat.
In terms of economics, this would seek its economic growth by focussing on metal
and chemical engineering industries, as North Korea can produce steel and coaldomestically.

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This strategy is fairly similar to the one that they had done during the 1970s and it islikely they will find serious difficulties in this path.
As for defence security, with the “Five-year plan for national defence technology
development and weapons system development”, North Korea plans to ramp up its
nuclear weapons programme and to sophisticate its missile capabilities, with longrange cruise missile test launch and mobile ballistic missile launch.
In March this year, China and the US had a high-level meeting in Alaska and there,
China confirmed that it may work with the US to counter North Korean nuclear threat,as long as the US would not interfere with China’s core interest and North Korea
showed quite a high level of dissatisfaction towards that.
It is showing a provocative stance by resuming operations at its Yongbyon nuclear
complex, and developing various types of missiles including the recent hypersonicmissile.
Dr. Dong then described how North Korea has leveraged COVID-19 for the
prolongation of its self-reliance route.
He spoke on how it has used the pandemic for the benefit of domestic politics:
enforcing strict punishments on its citizens based on the Emergency Law on
Prevention of Epidemics. Strictly controlling or banning the use of foreign currencies
by reintroducing foreign exchange certificates.
With dissatisfaction growing among the people due to increasing difficulties affecting
their standard of living domestically, the government seems to be trying to deflect
criticism by pointing to the inevitabilities created by the COVID-19 pandemic, as wellas the US and South Korea’s hostile policies. Towards the international community,
North Korea is reviving a “brinkmanship tactic” in order to raise the priority ranking of
the United States’ measures against North Korea.
The Moon Jae-in government has been taking a peace first policy and continues its
efforts to draw North Korea out to the (negotiating) table, however North Korea isleveraging this peace first policy for its own aims.
President Moon Jae-in made a speech at the United Nations and he proposed thedeclaration to end the war on the Korean Peninsula, participated in by both Northand South Koreas, the US and China. While North Korea signalled interest, it said
that unless South Korea and the US government abolish double standards or a
military hostile stance towards North Korea, there is no meaning in doing so.
North Korea has continued to demand the withdrawal of US forces in South Korea
and the discontinuation of the deployment of strategic assets.
After the collapse of the Hanoi summit, North Korea has become sceptical of theMoon Administration’s influence on the US, and distrust towards the Moon
Administration was heightened. When comparing to one year ago, it seems that
North Korea is somewhat feeling the need of having dialogue with the US.
Kim Jong-un is no longer directing policy towards South Korea, rather it is his sister
Kim Yo-Jong who is now handling communication between the two nations,demonstrating a degradation of South Korea’s importance from the North’s
perspective. Although the two Korean nations are still communicating unofficiallythrough closed communication channels, official inter-Korean communicationexchanges have halted completely.
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When comparing to one year ago, it seems that North Korea is somewhat feeling theneed of having dialogue with the US.
The fact that North Korea is trying to use the communication line between North andSouth shows that it has mixed feelings towards how it should act in response to thechanging situation in the Korean peninsula, as well as international relations.
In the final part of his presentation, Dr. Dong illuminated on the United States’
containment policy towards China.
The US “Containment” policy evolved from George Kennan’s report (X article) in
1947 article concerning how the US should deal with the Soviet Union during theCold War, and has gradually developed over a long period of time.
The Biden Administration is focussing more on allying with Japan, the UK and other
Western nations and trying to recover relationships. In terms of adopting countermeasures against China, new security co-operations such as QUAD, Five Eyes and
AUKUS have been formed.
There is also a realignment of the US-centric global value chain for those fields suchas for semiconductors and mobile technology where China has been heavily
dominant.
Meanwhile in China, Xi Jinping prolonged his term and is aiming to strengthen
China’s domestic capacity. By building on the strength of China’s 2-billion-person
market, comprised of Chinese residents in China and overseas, China aims toconnect these economies with the global market through the adoption of a “dualcirculation strategy”.
China has forcefully moved to exclude anti-communist party forces, aiming at thecorporate giants within China. China is also completely shutting out external forces
opposing China’s internal solidarity, which could mean excluding North Korea as
well/which may explain why North Korea has been excluded as well/which could
possibly account for North Korea’s exclusion.
Meanwhile, it seems that China's global influence during the pandemic has
decreased both internally and externally. Xi Jinping’s autocracy and prolongation ofcontrol over people's mobility has increased the dissatisfaction among the Chinese
citizens. There has been a loss of trust within the international community due toChina's inappropriate handling of the spread of COVID-19. Furthermore, the Belt andRoad Initiative has also been hindered by the pandemic.
The clash between the core strength of the United State, having a long-establishedinfluence over 80% of the open global network, and the core strength of China,
rallying its 2-billion-person market, i.e. 20% of the closed Chinese network, is a
conflict between the US’s stock accumulated over more than 70 years, and the flowaccompanying China’s dramatic development. In the end, it is highly likely that thesituation will develop so that China will be incorporated into the U.S.-centric open
global network.
The most important thing is for the co-operation between Japan and South Korea in
East Asia to be strengthened. This is necessary more than ever. He highlighted thenecessity of joint regional security collaboration in the Malacca Strait and the South
China Sea, in order to maintain freedom of navigation.

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He also called for efforts to include China and North Korea rather than collide withthem in matters of regional security. Also, in terms of the investment and promotionof developing countries, by countering China, it might be possible that the developing
countries’ development will further be becoming difficult. It is necessary to find a newway for developing countries.
As for global warming, time is needed to steer China and North Korea, which areheavily reliant on fossil fuels, towards co-operation for tackling the carbon zero target.
On the other hand, South Korea and Japan are relatively speaking in a situation inwhich they can lead efforts towards carbon zero. It is therefore necessary to create
an East Asian global warming response network including China and North Korea,
through the expansion of non-military co-operation fields such as alternative energy
development. He concluded it is necessary to recognise China and North Korea as
the biggest risk in East Asia and, in anticipation of emerging risks, to construct a joint
response framework.
After the talks, panel discussions among all 4 speakers were held with questions
from the moderator and the audience
Closing Remarks by Mr. Toyoda, Chairman and CEO, Japan Economic
Foundation
Mr. Toyoda thanked the audience and the distinguished speakers for coming
together for this online symposium, commenting that it felt like “the scales have fallenfrom our eyes”. The UK’s strategy on Asia as well as North Korea were major topics
and both of them are very important topics for Japan.
One could understand very well the British thinking that in some ways, it was as aresult of Brexit that it became possible for the UK to freely exert its diplomacy. As
pointed out, “the UK-China golden age has already come to an end” and so together
with Japan, the UK needs to think about how to address China. At the same time, we
gained a lot of insight into North Korea today.
The speakers’ consensus was that China has presented a menacing front in many
situations and whilst China is not necessarily a monolith, our challenge is how to
respond. It was pointed out that Taiwan is a critical area and the question of whether
the issue will be addressed by force, is not necessarily that simple to answer, what is
important is prevention. Furthermore, a significant conclusion was that the path of
diplomacy for peace should be pursued until the very end. On the other hand, it wasalso cautioned that preparations need to be made in case of a major crisis, so this is
the complicated situation we are faced with. In other words, we need to be preparedfor various scenarios so that we can prepare ourselves against any possible
scenario that may arise.
Mr. Toyoda said that while the level of discussions covered at this symposium was
extraordinary, we are faced with global risks in a different way from our everyday
lives and we need to keep these risks in mind. In this sense, the symposium,
yesterday and today, was very enlightening.

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