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Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (315)March 17, 2017

Conference on Asian Energy Security at Baker InstituteKen Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanOn March 16, a conference titled “Energy Security in the Asia Pacific Region: Current
Trends and Future Development” took place in Houston under cooperation between the Center for
Energy Studies, James Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, and the Institute ofEnergy Economics, Japan. The center’s Senior Director Kenneth Medlock and the Baker Institute’Gabriel Collins and Jim Krane, IEEJ Board Member Yukari Yamashita and I participated as speakers
in the conference, making presentations on the topic for questions and answers.
The IEEJ has deeply cooperated with the Baker Institute since the 1990s, conducting joint
studies and cosponsoring international conferences. I had been visiting the Baker Institute fordiscussions almost every year before failing to have opportunities to do for the last several years. I
had the latest opportunity to attend a conference at the Baker Institute for the first time in some fiveyears. I was pleased to participate in the discussions on the timely topic of Asian energy security,
which is an important matter of concern to me. In the following, I would like to summarize
impressive points to me at the conference.
First, it was emphasized that Asia’s future is very important as a factor influencing theglobal energy market. Various elements and factors are entwined with each other in the global energy
market that has existed as a system. In this sense, limits exist on discussions on global energy
problems based on a single region. Given that the gravity center of the global energy market isshifting and expected to continue shifting to Asia over a long time, however, analyzing what hashappened and will happen to Asian energy problems is indispensable for understanding internationalenergy problems. Asian energy demand expansion that is driving the gravity center shift is the core
point of the Asian energy security issue.
Second, an interesting analysis from the geopolitical viewpoint was made at theconference in regard to Asia’s growing energy demand and its subsequent increasing dependence onenergy imports. Asia’s increasing dependence on imports is the core of the Asian energy security
issue and closely related to its rising dependence on the Middle East, attracting attention fromnumerous stakeholders in line with the destabilization and uncertainties of the Middle Easternsituation.
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In 1980, then U.S. President Jimmy Carter announced his famed Carter Doctrine in his
State of the Union Address, saying, “An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian
Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, andsuch an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.” Since then, theUnited States has maintained its deep engagement with stability and security in the Middle East. Ananalysis doubting the advisability for the United States to maintain the Carter Doctrine wasinterestingly presented at the conference, pointing out that (1) the United States’ dependence on oil
imports has declined rapidly under the shale revolution, (2) the United States’ relations with Saudi
Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries have intricately changed through the Arab Springdemocratization movement, the Syrian civil war and other developments, (3) the United States isreviving isolationism under the new administration, (4) the Middle East has been deepening mutual
economic relations with Asian countries, and (5) the supply-demand balance in the international oil
market has eased.
The conclusion at the conference was that the Carter Doctrine will and should bemaintained in the foreseeable future, given that (1) even if the United States achieves complete oil
self-sufficiency, the Middle East’s destabilization will greatly affect the United States through oil
price hikes, (2) the Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia, alone has significant excess production
capacity and remains the cornerstone of global energy security, (3) the United States (its militarypower) alone has the real power to secure safe, stable passage through key sea lanes including theStrait of Hormuz, and (4) U.S. engagement with the stability of the Middle East is important for theUnited States to maintain its influences on the world. U.S. arguments are characterized by the close
linkage between Asian energy security and geopolitics or security. This point was particularly
impressive to me at a time when the United States’ policies on the Middle East and national security
under the new administration were attracting global attention.
Regarding the abovementioned point, one participant in the conference noted thatproblems not only in the Middle East but also in the Indian Ocean, the Strait of Malacca and theSouth China Sea would be important in the context that sea lane security as a whole is significant for
Asia’s energy security and the stability of Asian oil and LNG imports. The new U.S. administration’sattitude or actual actions on Asian energy security and energy transportation will attract attention inregard to how the vital interests of the United States should be defined.
From the geopolitical viewpoint, Russia’s relations with major Asian energy importing
countries such as Japan, China, South Korea and India are also important. The security environmentand geopolitical risks for major Asian countries will grow more important for analyzing the energy
security issue. It is basically important for each country to make its own efforts to enhance energy
security. At the same time, it is important to step up international cooperation to support national
efforts or help prevent national efforts from plunging the energy market into a mutually exclusive
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zero-sum game in the direction of destabilization. The conference gave me an opportunity toacknowledge anew that it is important to deepen geopolitical analyses on Asian energy security
irrespective of low prices and oversupply of energy at present while the international situation,
including the new U.S. administration’s influences, is very uncertain.
Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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