Future Prospect ofUrban Smart Energy Infrastructures
October, 2015

Takao KASHIWAGI, PhD.
Distinguished Professor
TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYThe Great East Japan Earthquake
Growing Interest in Resilient Energy
Infrastructure Many thermal power plants, as well as nuclear power
plants, were damaged by Tsunami, and severe electricity
shortage occurred in 2011.
 Resilient Energy Infrastructure is one of the mainconcerns in energy policy discussion.

1

Electricity Mix for 2030 in Japan
Electricity DemandElectricity Mix
Total Electricity output

ＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃGrowth
1.7 %/year

Electricity９６６．６
ＴＷｈFY2013(Actual)Thorough energy
savings about 196.1
TWhT&D(Down 17% from BAU)lossetc

Energysavings &renewables covering
about 40%

Electricit
yabout
９８０．８
ＴＷｈ

FY2030

about 1,278 TWh

Total Electricity output
Geothermal: about 1.0-1.1%

EnergySavings:
about 17%

about1,065TWh

Biomass: about 3.7-4.6%
Wind: about 1.7%

RES: about
19-20%

RES: about
22-24%

Nuclear:about 18-17%

Nuclear:about 22-20%

LNG:
about 22%

LNG:
about 27%

Coal:
about 22%

Coal:
about 26%

Oil: about 2%

Oil: about 3%FY2030(Source) “Long-term Energy Supply/Demand Outlook”, METI (Jul.,2015)

Solar: about 7.0%

Hydro: about
8.8-9.9%

Japan needs more
renewable energy
sources!

2

Estimated CHP Economic Potential for 2030
Cumulative CHP Capacity: about 31.4GW (including residential sector)
Electricity Generation by CHP: about 154TWh(about 15％ of totalgeneration)【CHP Growth Path toward 2030】
Possible further growthby commercial SOFC
uptake and resiliencevalue evaluation（TWh/year）

Electricity GeneratedResidentia
31.4GWl154TWh
Commercial
Industria
Residential Fuel celll
Enefarm(※2)
3GW、15TWh

5.3GW
25TWh

17.1GW
81TWhabout 9.9GW
about 30TWh(※1）（Excludingresidential）

Current(2012)

3.1GW
14TWh

23.1GW
114TWh

13.2GW
63TWh

20202030【Possible Effect of CHP Addition】

Energy Savings:
12.1 million kl /year
CO2 Emissions Reduction:
52 million t-CO2 /year
Imported Fuel CostReduction:¥420 billion /year※１ a quote from handouts at the 22nd meeting,Fundamental Issues Subcommittee of theAdvisory Committee on Natural Resourcesand Energy※２ a quote from handouts at the 1st meeting,Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Strategy Council (inthe case of 5,000 operating hours)

3Smart Energy Network Concept
Interconnection
with overseas grid
Direct current transmission
Ultrahigh voltage transmission

Mega powergeneration
Supply side・Next generation conversion
・Sector integrated energy supply

Information

Electricity
Wind, Mega solar

Smart City

Renewables

Demand side・Demand side management
・Mutual use of infrastructure

Large CHP

Thermalnetwork

Residential Area

Thermal network

Smart FactoryArea-wide thermaluse, Coproduction,
biomass, Hydrogen
infrastructure

Smart meter
Smart HELED, HP
Fuel Cell, Solar
Battery

Industrial Area

Thermal network

Smart House

Compact City

Electricity

CHP, Battery, Renewables

Commercial Area
Smart House

Area-wide use ofenergy※

Thermalnetwork

4

Asian Super Grid Concept (example)

Install 50GW wind and 50GW
solar in Gobi by 2030
• Generation Distributed mainly
to China, Japan and Korea
through international powertransmission network•(Source) “Gobitec and Asian Super Grid for Renewable Energies in Northeast Asia” (2014)5