IEEJ：September 2021©IEEJ 2021
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (551)

September 24, 2021

Turnaround in U.S. Strategic Perception (2): National Security Perception
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
On August 15, shocking news that Afghanistan’s Taliban militant group took control ofKabul and effectively returned to power made headlines around the world. The Afghan government
collapsed, plunging Afghanistan into a chaos. As the United States that supported the Afghan
government lost its prestige, the Biden administration’s policy or strategy for pulling out U.S. forcesfrom Afghanistan came under severe fire in the United States. In Afghanistan to which the UnitedStates gave strategic priority in its 20-year war against terrorism, the U.S. war achievements
crumbled, forcing Washington to face a grim reality.
The U.S. war against terrorism stemmed from terrorist attacks on the United States on
September 11, 2001. A total of 2,977 people were killed in the attacks, including two hijackedairliners being flown into the twin World Trade Center buildings in New York that led to thebuildings’ collapse. The large-scale terrorist attacks on the U.S. nerve centers killed and injured
numerous citizens, coming as a great shock to American society. Then U.S. President George W.
Bush immediately declared a war against terrorism. Alleging that Afghanistan sheltered Osama bin
Laden, then leader of the al-Qaeda international terrorist group, who was suspected to haveorchestrated the terrorist attacks, the United States launched air strikes on the country in October
2001. U.S. forces then invaded Afghanistan and toppled the then Taliban regime. Later, the UnitedStates supported a new government headed by President Hamid Karzai, continuing efforts andengagement to democratize, reconstruct and stabilize Afghanistan. It spent an estimated $2.3 trillion
on Afghanistan in the two decades.
The United States expanded its war against terrorism. In 2003, it launched a militaryinvasion into Iraq for the reason that Iraq supported international terrorism and possessed weaponsof mass destruction. In the war in Iraq, the United States overthrew the then Saddam Hussein regime.
Later, it continued initiatives to reconstruct, stabilize and democratize Iraq. In fact, however, Iraq
remained in difficult and in some case chaotic situation. The Arab Spring movement and otherdevelopments accelerated the destabilization of the Middle East. Amid confusion and a power
vacuum, the Islamic State terrorist group expanded attacks, while massive refugees came from theMiddle East to Europe where terrorist attacks spread. The Middle East plunged into extreme
confusion.
Twenty years after the United Sates launched the war against terrorism, the Taliban
returned to power in Afghanistan, the first battlefield of the war, leading people to renew thequestion of what the war against terrorism was. The 20-year war is estimated to have cost the UnitedStates more than $8 trillion and killed more than 7,000 U.S. troops and nearly 400,000 civilians. The
apparent reason the United States waged the war against terrorism even at such huge cost is thatterrorism was perceived as the most serious threat to U.S. national security. The United States won
the Cold War and became the world’s only superpower in the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed.
At a time when the United States had no rival, the terrorist attacks on the U.S. nerve centers came,
prompting U.S. leader to perceive that the most serious threat to the United States were non-state
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actors such as terrorist and other militant groups that should be a national security policy target.
Such strategic perception drove the United States into embarking on the war against terrorism evenat huge cost. In Afghanistan and the Middle East that became main battlefields of the war, the local
situation has failed to be stabilized and remains plagued with various challenges. As the Middle East
has remained the gravity center of international energy markets, the war against terrorism and its
spillover impacts have continued to shake the region and the international energy situation.
While the United States sustained the war against terrorism, the international situation
underwent a huge change. That is the rise of China. After keeping double-digit annual economic
growth and increasing its presence as the factory of the world in the 2000s, China enhanced its
political and geopolitical influence. Then, a confident China transitioned from the “hide yourstrength” approach in the Deng Xiaoping era to assertive diplomacy. Washington gradually became
vigilant to China’s rise and toughened its China policy. After U.S.-China relations focused on a trade
war in the first half of the Trump administration period, Washington enhanced its perception ofChina as a full-fledged challenger to U.S. supremacy and toughened its attitude against China amid
the huge impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second half.
In such situation, what policy or strategy on China Joe Biden would adopt attracted global
interest after his victory in the November 2020 U.S. presidential election. Although some people had
predicted the Biden administration to be more conciliatory to China, the new administration has
come up with a tough China policy and has specifically given priority to winning competition withChina. This is because the president, the federal government, Congressional Democrats andRepublicans, military and national security circles and the establishment class shared a critical viewon China. The Biden administration has also taken a more serious view of Hong Kong, Taiwan andXinjiang Uyghur autonomous region issues than the Trump administration, implemented a foreign
policy strategy based on values such as human rights and democracy and given priority to enhancing
strategic cooperation with U.S. allies in competing with China.
Behind the tough China policy, U.S. leaders might have shared a national security
perception that China is a challenger to U.S. supremacy and the most serious challenge to U.S.
national security. They may perceive that the key U.S. national security challenge has transitioned
from a fight against non-state actors such as terrorist groups to a major power competition. To
counter such U.S. transition and strategic response, Beijing is promoting an international strategy todeepen strategic cooperation with Russia facing difficult relations with the United States, enhancebilateral strategic relations in the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America andAfrica and drive wedges between the United States and its allies. In such international situation,
geopolitical tensions are growing globally. In the world in which national security is given priority,competition over strategic commodities, resources and technologies is intensifying in regard to
economic security and technological supremacy, exerting influence on the international energy
situation and climate change countermeasures. The trend of prioritizing economic security is goingin the direction of giving priority to energy security. As the world undergoes a new energy transition,policies and strategics to enhance energy security in such new situation are growing more important.
At a time when the United States is shifting its policy resources to enhancing its China
strategy amid the major change in its national security perception, the Afghan situation has plunged
into chaos. The United States now must look to fight against terrorism again while minimizing its
impact on the major power competition. It has thus plunged into a difficult situation. While the U.S.
Afghan strategy is coming under growing fire, its AUKUS initiative to enhance security relations
with Australia and the United Kingdom is affecting its cooperation with France. The Biden
administration is thus required to continue with difficult maneuvering regarding foreign policy and2

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national security strategies. The shaking of the United States amounts to that of global order,
becoming a grave international security problem.
Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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