On Bio‐mathematical Models
and the SAFE Biomathematical
Predictive Human Fatigue
Model for Aircrew(and CARE cabin crew and FRI ground crew models)

Douglas Mellor
29th January 2021
douglas.mellor@frmsc.com© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Content About FRMSc
 What is Bio‐Mathematical Model (BMM) ?
 What is the foundation of its output ?
 How to use it ?
 How does it work ?

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Introduction
 Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited specialises in original
research into human fatigue and sleep with a specific focus on aviation.
 The research team at FRMSc started their research programme into
sleep in humans, with a particular emphasis on aviators, in the 1970s at
the Institute of Aviation Medicine (now part of QinetiQ in FarnboroughUK).
 Other industries are also served e.g. Rail, Health, general shift workingenvironments.
 The whole of the aviation research programme focussed on fatigue inaviation both in the military and civil environments.
 FRMSc science team are key advisors to many Civil Aviation Authorities,
regulators, accident investigation bureaux, employee and industry
groups world wide.
© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

What is a Bio‐mathematical model (BMM)?
 A set of mathematical equations that mimic the dataset in which it is based The dataset identifies and describes the behaviours of the drivers of fatigue in humans
 A BMM provides a method of assessing to an acceptable accuracy, the likely fatigue andsleep patterns of the average human whose occupation has been studied. This canreplace the need for aircrew fatigue studies in most circumstances.
Fatigue Necessarily, to make it usable, these equations (algorithms) will be integrated within asoftware hosting application so that data can be entered and information taken out.
 The model and/or the algorithm library may be connected to a Crew Management
Systems (CMS) in some way: usually though a Application Programme Interface (API) orby integrating the library directly into the CMS© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

MentalWorkloadTime sincelast sleep
Circadianrhythm
SleepInertia

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What is a Bio‐mathematical model BMM?

 Consequently:
 the model is only as good as the dataset on which it
is based The dataset is only as good as the standard androbustness of the research studies conducted This means that ‐ if
 the research is not well designed and implementedor the data collected is from a different occupation tothat targeted with the BMM

MentalWorkload

FatigueTime sincelast sleep
CircadianrhythmSleepInertia

then the algorithms will not necessarily adequately
represent the behaviour of the target population.

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Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

Components of a typical modeland how it works
Connectivity toCrew
Management
Systems

Spread sheet
uploadManual data
entry

InputsInterfaceMicrosoft
Azure
Cloud

Hosting
application

SAFE
Algorithms

CARE

FRI

Modelling© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

HARVESTManagement
analytics

Reports

Background to SAFE
a composite bio‐mathematical predictive fatigue model
designed specifically for commercial airline pilots.
 SAFE started out as a neuroscience and sleep research project to assist UK
Ministry of Defence to understand the degradation of pilot performance
when flying continuous operations (24/7) for up to 9 consecutive days intimes of war.
 UK CAA supported use of that research for further detailed research withpilots of many airlines world‐wide, to create a bio‐mathematical model for
their use only, to authorise (or not) calls for approved derogation to CAP371
regulations.
 SAFE is built from the results of continuous research programmes since theearly 1980s. The huge study database contains tens of thousands of analysed
schedules that identify and measure the drivers of fatigue in pilots.
© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

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What SAFE does
 Predicts good estimates of both fatigue and sleep
periods for the average pilot No requirement for input of individual actual sleepdata Identifies and measures likely hazards
 How many there are How big they are Where they are Provides modelling features
 trying out appropriate strategies to resolve issues
 SAFE is a tool for decision makers to use to help withtheir decision making process.
© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

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Research studies
 SAFE is built from the results of continuous research
programmes gathering AVIATION DATA ONLY since theearly 1980s that amount to tens of thousands ofschedules.
 The averages are built from many pilots flying definedroutes e.g. Haj study Jakarta to Jeddah. A 3 year study.
 The SAFE algorithm library has been used from theearly 1990s and is very stable and robust.
 The original datasets were collected from many airlines
including JAL, British Airways, PAN AM, Lufthansa, Air
New Zealand, Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Cathay
Pacific, Malaysia Airways and more.
© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

Research Studies

 Original research studies were focussed on describing thedrivers of human fatigue (1970s and 80s)
 Phase 2 focussed on identifying and measuring fatigue inpilots of Commercial Airline Transportation operations:short haul, long haul and cargo (1980 to 2005).
 Phase 3: ultra‐long haul operations (2000‐2002)
Institute of Aviation Medicine
QinetiQ Phase 4:Cabin crew (2012 onwards) Focus on general aviation (2014 onwards)
 Ongoing studies in all aviation operations ‐ and other
FRMSc Limitedindustries.

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Robust Algorithms
 The SAFE algorithm library has been usedcommercially from the early 1990s and is very
stable and robust.
 Built from data captured from the original
research studies the FRMSc science teamdeveloped throughout their careers Some studies completed remain unique e.g.
Haj: Jakarta to Mecca
 The original team still support thedevelopment of all models© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

Hosting Application
 The User Interface
 Robust IT system hosting the input and output
interfaces from the user and the modelalgorithms.
 Contains
 Easy to understand displays
 Features to improve granularity for settinguser defined levels of operational constraints
 Modelling control Reports containing main metrics describing
the fatigue risk within the schedule.
 Contains connectivity interface with mostCrew Management Systems© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

 Email to set up a demo session to:

douglas.mellor@frmsc.comEmail for demo: info@frmsc.com

HARVESTfor management analytics

 Useful for management information for examining Fatigue metrics
 Risk metrics
 Tracking schedule build metrics

 Provides high resolution metrics, charts and reports
 Easy to create sub‐populations© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

Hosting platform
Microsoft Azure Cloud The Azure Cloud provides
 Access to our models from anywhere in the world
 Access through all internet connected devices
 High availability
 Immense power to upload huge datasets
 Excellent security
 Excellent resilience© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

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Summary The robust SAFE algorithms are built from detailed original
research studies covering some 50 years.
 The base algorithms were created after 30 years of continuous
research with the help of many international and local airlines
 SAFE has been in commercial use since the early 1990s
 The hosting platform contains comprehensive easy to use tools
to identify fatigue hazards and model possible solution to anyfatiguing duties
 Management statistics and charts available in HARVEST
 Connectivity with most Crew Management Systems
 Powerful scalability, security and resilience On Apps………

 Supported by original research team with scientific advice
 Cabin crew (CARE) and ground crew model (FRI) available too.
© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com

Questions?

Thanks for listening
Douglas Mellor
douglas.mellor@frmsc.com+44 7879 887489© copyright Fatigue Risk Management Science Limited 2020

Email for demo: info@frmsc.com