IEEJ：March 2021 © IEEJ2021
Special Bulletin
A Japanese Perspective on the International Energy Landscape (523)March 11, 2021

Considering Energy Issues 10 Years after Great East Japan Earthquake
Ken Koyama, PhD
Chief Economist, Senior Managing Director
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanAt 2:46 p.m. on March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, one of the largest recordedin Japan, occurred at a depth of 24 kilometers in Pacific waters off northeastern Japan. Theearthquake measured the maximum 7 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale in Kurihara, Miyagi
Prefecture. In numerous other municipalities, it measured upper 6. The great earthquake triggered
massive tsunami waves that devastated coastal areas of the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The greatearthquake killed or left missing more than 18,000 people, destroyed more than 400,000 houses andforced as many as 470,000 people to be evacuated, becoming an unprecedentedly large disaster.
A massive tsunami hit the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station of Tokyo ElectricPower Co., crippling emergency diesel generators to cause station blackout (SBO). The facility thus
lost its reactor-cooling functions. Units 1, 2 and 3 in operation melted down, generating hydrogengas. Hydrogen explosions took place at Units 1, 3 and 4, releasing massive radioactive materials.
The accident, classified as Level 7 or the most serious level on the International Nuclear Event Scale,forced a large number of residents around the power station to evacuate their homes or remain
unable to return home. Even at present, many of them are left unable to return home. The accident
caused serious damage to the reputations of agriculture, forestry and fishery products, affecting theregional economy and livelihood.
A decade after the Great East Japan Earthquake, I would like to pray for the repose of thesouls of those were killed in the disaster and offer my sincere condolences and sympathies to those
who were socially, economically and mentally affected by the great earthquake and the nuclear
power station accident. At the same time, I would like to pay my heartfelt respects to those who havecontinued utmost efforts for recovery from the unprecedented great disaster. I think that our society
must renew its determination and preparedness to support recovery from the disaster. We must notforget what happened a decade ago but promote further recovery initiatives while conveying lessons
from the disaster to future generations.
The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident forced Japan todramatically change its energy policy. The disaster wreaked great havoc on energy infrastructure ineastern Japan. It caused heavy damage not only to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station but
also to fossil-fired power plants, relevant port and harbor facilities and oil refineries, leading rolling
blackouts to be implemented on a large scale mainly in the Kanto region. Distribution networks werecut off, affecting petroleum product supply to gas stations mainly in the disaster-hit region. City gas
supply was also stalled for more than 400,000 households temporarily. The serious accident affecting
nuclear power generation as a baseload electricity source forced nuclear power plants to be shut
down for regular checkups. Japan then completely halted nuclear power generation. To secure stable
power supply, Japan promoted power saving campaigns as much as possible and substantiallyexpanded fossil-fired power generation. Even coal-fired power plants, designed to supply electricity
as the base-load power supply source, increased generation as much as possible. Among fossil-fired1

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power sources, gas-fired plants scored the largest generation growth, leading Japan’s liquefied
natural gas imports to rapidly expand. Idled oil-fired plants were also mobilized for powergeneration. Crude oil prices then remained around $100 per barrel, and LNG prices indexed to oil
prices stayed high. The high fossil fuel prices and massive fossil fuel import volume forced Japan’sfuel import value and power generation costs to substantially rise. As a result, Japan plunged into atrade deficit. Fossil fuel consumption expansion resulted in a sharp increase in CO2 emissions.
Until the disaster, the Japanese government (then, a Democratic Party of Japanadministration) had a target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 25% from 1990 by 2020. To
achieve the target, the third Strategic Energy Plan formulated in June 2010 called for increasing
nuclear power plants to raise their share of Japan’s power generation to 50% by 2030. The greatearthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident forced the plan to be revised fundamentally. Thenuclear accident and the subsequent heavy damage led nuclear energy to come under strong fire. The
fourth Strategic Energy Plan formulated in 2014 stated: “We will do our utmost to achieve thereconstruction and recovery of Fukushima while reflecting on and responding to the pain felt by thepeople affected by the accident at TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. We revise
the energy strategy plan formulated before the disaster from scratch to reduce Japan’s dependence onnuclear power plants as much as possible.” Then, the government added safety to the so-called 3E’s(energy security, economic efficiency and environment) as energy policy priorities, reflecting theFukushima accident. Based on the plan, the government in 2015 released a target energy mix for2030, putting nuclear energy’s share of Japan’s power generation at 20-22% and renewable energy’s
share at 22-24%.
The fifth Strategic Energy Plan formulated in 2018 called for achieving theabovementioned energy mix. Even as less than 10 years are left before 2030, however, there are amountain of challenges to be resolved for achieving the energy mix. The number of restarted nuclear
power plants is limited to nine, with various challenges left unresolved. Renewable energy has
spread rapidly under the Feed-in Tariff system introduced in July 2012, but the FIT surcharge hasswollen subsequently, leaving the economical promotion of renewable energy as a great challenge.
In such situation, full-fledged discussions since last year on the sixth Strategic Energy Plan
have indicated new challenges. While the 3Es+S basic priorities have remained unchanged, thegovernment has specified an extremely ambitious environmental target regarding climate change
countermeasures. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in his policy address last October declared thatJapan as well as the European Community and the United States would seek to achieve carbon
neutrality in 2050. The target energy mix for 2030 includes a target of cutting GHG emissions by
26% from 2013. If Japan were to pursue carbon neutrality in 2050, it may have to reconsider the2030 target in view of the current expansion in renewable energy power generation. To achievecarbon neutrality in 2050, Japan will have to thoroughly promote electrification, make the power
sector free from GHG emissions and thoroughly decarbonize non-power sectors. CO2-free hydrogenand fuel ammonia utilization along with other innovations in the energy field will be indispensable
to this end.
Last December, a preliminary idea for energy mix for 2050 was put on the table as areference for discussions on the new Strategic Energy Plan at the Strategic Policy Committee of theAdvisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, indicating that renewable energy would
account for 50-60% of Japan’s total power generation, nuclear and fossil-fired power plants
equipped with CCUS (Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage) technologies for 30-40% andCO2-free hydrogen and ammonia for around 10%. While referring to the preliminary idea, the2

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committee will consider various scenarios and energy mixes, energy security and costs and policies
based on the 3E’s+S priorities to explore a desirable energy mix for 2050.
Even a decade after the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japan still faces various challenges
regarding energy problems and policies and is struggling to overcome them. Stable energy supply
has remained a top priority for Japan that is poor with energy resources. The tightening power
supply-demand balance seen early this year provided us with an opportunity to reaffirm thesignificance of energy security and stable energy supply for Japan. Initiatives to realize carbon
neutrality are now one of Japan’s most important challenges. Based on experiences in the past
decade after the Great East Japan Earthquake and lessons learned from the disaster, Japan mustpursue a best energy mix for the effective utilization of all energy sources and potential innovations
to develop a desirable future picture of energy.

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