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SENSEABLE CITY LAB

Research briefing

The trade-off
betweensustainabilityand social
segregation in
the 15-minutecity
Using large-scale global
positioning system (GPS)mobility data, we examined thefeasibility and societal impact ofthe ‘15-minute city’ model across
US urban areas. Our findingshighlight the environmental
benefits of localized living
but also its risk of intensifying
socioeconomic segregation.

This is a summary of:
Abbiasov, T. et al. The 15-minute city quantified using human mobility data. Nat. Hum.
Behav. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-02301770-y (2023).
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to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.

Published online: xx xx xxxx
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The question
As urbanization continues rapidly andenvironmental concerns grow, a clear
need exists to rethink urban development
models. Without constraints, cities havebeen expanding into suburbia, and this has
led to increasing car use and greenhouse gas
emissions. In this context, the ‘15-minutecity’ has emerged as a promising alternativethat proposes that residents access most of
their daily needs within a short walk or bicycle ride from home1,2. Although this model
presents potential advantages, questions
regarding its measurability, applicability
and practicality remain3,4. Our research uses
large-scale GPS mobility data to assess thefeasibility and impact of the 15-minute citymodel in US cities.

The observation
Our study leverages a large-scale dataset
of mobile GPS traces to explore the use of
essential amenities and services within awalkable distance from individual homes.
By analysing data on visits to points of interest by over 40 million mobile phone users,
our methodology enables insights into urban
mobility patterns beyond what is possible using smaller case studies or surveys. Our comprehensive analysis of ‘15-minuteness’ acrossover 400 urban areas in the USA provides
a unique lens to evaluate the proximity toamenities and their actual usage for different
socioeconomic groups (Fig. 1a,b).
Our findings show a strong association
between the accessibility of amenities within
a 15-minute walk from home and their actualuse (Fig. 1c). These observations provide evidence in support of the foundational premise of the 15-minute city model: the presence of amenities is proportional to usage.
Additionally, we developed the ‘15-minuteusage’ index, which shows that the median
US resident makes only 14% of trips to essential amenities within a 15-minute walking
radius. Furthermore, by examining historical zoning regulations such as the 1961 New
York Zoning Ordinance, we found suggestive
evidence of a causal link between amenity
accessibility and local usage.

Finally, we also document that local trips
might exacerbate socioeconomic segregation, especially among low-income residents(Fig. 1d). Taken together, these insights
underscore the interplay among urban
planning, environmental sustainability andsocial dynamics in cities.

The implications
The broader implications of our findings aretwofold. From an environmental perspective, our results suggest that 15-minute city
planning strategies could potentially reduce
trip lengths and associated emissions byenhancing local mobility. However, although local living might foster community
cohesion, it could inadvertently intensify
socioeconomic segregation — particularly
among less-affluent neighbourhoods. Thisdichotomy emphasizes the need for nuanced urban planning models that consider
both sustainability and social inclusion.
Our research has some limitations. First,
although we explored the potential for
walkable trips, our dataset does not allow
us to determine the actual mode of transportation used. Second, the study primarily
centres on income-based segregation andleaves out other forms, such as racial or ethnic segregation. Finally, our observations in
New York offer insights into the relationshipbetween amenity access and local usage,
but their applicability to other US regions
might be limited owing to differences invarying zoning constraints and density
demands.
Future research could explore the racialand ethnic dimensions of segregation within
the 15-minute city context in increased detail, and analysing the time spent at different
points of interest could further refine ourunderstanding of social interactions among
different groups. Our next aim is to use ourempirical measures to assess policy interventions and monitor how cities implement
this model over time to achieve sustainablemobility and social integration.
Arianna Salazar-Miranda & Carlo Ratti
Senseable City Lab, Massachusetts Instituteof Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.

References

Expert opinion“The paper represents a significant
evidence-based advance in ourunderstanding of the concept of 15-minutecities. Key features include the massive
dataset on which the analysis is based,
the development and use of a 15-minuteusage measure, and analysis of the link

between 15-minute usage and experienced
segregation. The results will be of
immediate interest to many people in myown discipline and in related disciplines.”
Susan Handy, University of California,
Davis, Davis, CA, USA.

Figureab

Urban areas in the United States

ChicagoNew York, NY
Bridgeport, CT
State College, PA
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Boulder, COChampaign, IL
Chicago, IL
Seaside, CASan Jose, CA
Corvallis, OR
Burlington, VT
Santa Barbara, CA
Philadelphia, PA
Trenton, NJ

New York
Philadelphia

Champaign
San Francisco
Murfreesboro
Los Angeles

010203040

15-minute usage(percentage of trips [%])
Population (millions)

1.1

4.6

11.5

15-minute usage(percentage oftrips [%])

010

1214

16

182025304050

1. Moreno, C. et al. Introducing the“15-minute city,” sustainability, resilienceand place identity in future post-pandemic
cities. Smart Cities 4, 93–111 (2021).
This paper outlines the 15-minute city
concept.
2. Allam, Z. et al. The ‘15-Minute City’concept can shape a net-zero urban future.
Humanit. Soc. Sci. Commun. 9, 1–5 (2022).
This paper argues for the 15-minute citymodel as a solution for sustainability.
3. Bertaud, A. The last urban utopia:
the 15-minute city. Urban Reform
Institute, https://urbanreforminstitute.
org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/
15mincity-bertaud.pdf (2022).
This article offers a critical perspective of
the 15-minute city.
4. Glaeser, E. The 15-minute city is a deadend — cities must be places of opportunity
for everyone. LSE Blogs, https://blogs.lse.
ac.uk/covid19/2021/05/28/the-15-minutecity-is-a-dead-end-cities-must-be-placesof-opportunity-for-everyone/ (2021).
This article offers a critical perspective of
the 15-minute city.

22.7

cMidwest

NortheastSouthdWest

2New York

9040
San Francisco
Philadelphia

30

Reading
Cleveland

20
Avondale

10

SeattleDetroitPhoenix

Los Angeles

BostonPortlandMiami

Atlanta

Experienced segregation

15-minute usage (percentageof trips [%])

R = 0.8480

7060

Trips < 15 minutes away

0Trips > 15 minutes away

20406015-minute access (no. of amenities, ranked)

12345678910

Income deciles

Fig. 1 | Local trips in the USA. a, Fifteen-minute usage for urban areas in the USA. b, Fifteen-minute usage forthose urban areas that demonstrate the highest proportion of local trips. c, Increase in 15-minute access toamenities is associated with their increased use in urban areas. d, Residents of low-income neighbourhoods
see a large reduction in experienced segregation when making long journeys compared with short journeys,
whereas residents of high-income neighbourhoods see a much smaller reduction in experienced segregation.
© 2023, Abbiasov, T. et al.

Behind the paper
The idea of 15-minute cities received an
unexpected boost from the COVID-19
pandemic. Mayors and city councils took
advantage of lockdowns to reimagine city
spaces by re-greening neighbourhoods
and reducing spaces devoted to roads.
Local living sprang up in new developmentsfrom Paris to Portland to Melbourne,
weaving districts of the city together intoa walkable, liveable whole. Yet, we werestruck by the fact that in most cases thedefinition of 15-minute cities was not
Nature Human Behaviour

From the editor
precise or evidence-based. The concept’s
lack of quantifiability resulted in its sudden
emergence as the target of far-rightconspiracies, which presented it as creating
dystopian, quarter-hour prisons thatthreatened personal freedom. We therefore
thought that it would be important to start
using mobility big data to add evidence tothe conversation. That starting point led us
to generous funding from the MIT Senseable
City Consortium and to a collaboration with
Harvard University. C.R.

“The study uses behavioural data to expose astriking trade-off between the sustainabilitygoals of the 15-minute city and social
goals of reducing urban segregation — anobservation that urban planners, policy
makers and voters will need to take into
account when making future decisions.”
Arunas Radzvilavicius, Senior Editor,
Nature Human Behaviour.