LNG market and its outlook
Recent developments and short-term outlook

7th IEEJ Webinar for the World
Thursday 6 October 2022
Hiroshi Hashimoto, Head of Gas GroupThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japanhiroshi.hashimoto@tky.ieej.or.jp
IEEJ © October 2022

Presentation Disclaimer: This presentation is given for general informational
purposes only and is not intended to influence any specific actions.
Views expressed in this presentation are the author’s own and do not represent
any official positions of the organisation that the author belongs to.

million Tonnes

LNG Imports by the European Union (EU) + United Kingdom, Japan and China

10EU + GBChina

Japan

8625

420

2012345672021

891011121234

562022

There has been a major
shift of LNG flows toEurope with LNG volumes
produced in the UnitedStates.
China, Japan and Asia
reduced LNG imports inthe first half of 2022.

7

Changes in LNG Imports by Major Consumers in the Half of the Yearmillion tonnes

815
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

1050-5-10-15

IEEJ © October 2022

Source: based on data of Customs Statistics and Cedigaz LNG Services2

USD / bbl
LNG and(Brent, JCC)
gas prices
have been 500
Brent
the highest
Spot LNG (Asia)
in the400
history
TTFand more
expensive
Japan LNG average
300
than
The period of globally
crude oilexpensive gas started
since Julyin July 2021
2021,
200
showing unprecedented
volatility to 100
shoot upeven
higher0
from time totime
IEEJ © October 2022

USD / million
Btu
JCC
Henry Hub
NBP

Source: based on data of exchanges and ICIS

Continental European
premium has been apparent
since March 2022

10080604020

03

Announcement
2022/06/22
2022/07/20
2022/02/24
2022/03/09
2022/05/04
2022/05/25
2022/06/09
2022/07/20
2022/07/26
2022/06/22
2022/07/13
2022/08/09
2022/04/22
2022/03/29
2022/03/29
2022/05/02
2022/05/03
2022/06/05
2022/08/24
2022/04/06
2022/05/02
2022/07/05
2022/07/06
2022/07/27
2022/03/16
2022/03/16
2022/06/21
2022/06/22
2022/03/07
2022/03/16
2022/05/10
2022/05/11
2022/06/22
2022/09/05
2022/09/05
2022/04/01
2022/07/12
IEEJ © October
2022

Project
Cheniere Corpus Christi future trains
Cheniere Corpus Christi future trains
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage III
Cheniere Sabine Pass
Delfin LNG
Delfin LNG
Freeport
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Lake Charles
Rio Grande LNG
Rio Grande LNG
Rio Grande LNG
Rio Grande LNG
Rio Grande LNG
VG CP2
VG CP2
VG CP2
VG CP2VG Plaquemines
VG Plaquemines
VG Plaquemines
VG Plaquemines
VG Plaquemines
Commonwealth LNG
Woodside portofolio
Mexico Pacific Limited
Mexico Pacific Limited

Offtaker
ChevronPetroChina
EOG
Engie
ARC
POSCO
EquinorPetroChina
PTT
Chevron
Vitol
Centrica
Kogas
ENN
ENN
GunvorSK
China Gas
Shell
ENN
Engie
China Gas
Guangdong Energy
ExxonMobil
NFE
ExxonMobil
EnBW
ChevronShell
NFE
ExxonMobil
Petronas
ChevronWoodside
UniperGuangzhou
Shell

Mt/year
1
0.9
1.7
0.9
0.85
0.4
1.75
0.9
1
1
0.5
1
1.58
1.8
0.9
2
0.4
0.7
2.1
1.5
1.75
111
1
1
1.5
12
1
1
1
1
2.5
0.8
2
2.6

term
1525
1520152015252013202018202020182520201520202020
NA
2020NA
20NA
202020202020

Type of deal
FOB
FOB
IPM
FOB
IPM
NA
FOB
FOB
EOB/DES
FOB
FOB
FOB
NA
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
DES
FOB
FOB
NA
NA
NA
NA
FOB
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
FOB

Pricing
Henry HubHenry Hub
JKMHenry Hub
JKM
NAHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry HubHenry Hub
NA
Henry HubHenry HubHenry Hub
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Henry HubOrigin
USAUSAUSA
USA
USA
USAUSA
USA
USA
USAUSA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USAUSA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
NA
MexicoMexico4

Status
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA
SPA

25 million 70
tonnes of
LNG
production 60
has beensanctioned
50
so far in2022.
Past FIDed
40
projects
include two
projects in
30
Russia.

Nigeria LNG Train 7

Yemen LNG

Tangguh

Arctic LNG 2Qatargas 3-4 6/7

Scarborough - Pluto Train 2Ust-Luga
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass

Snøhvit
ALNG T4RasGas 3 6/7
NLNG Plus 4/5

Mozambique LNG1Cove Point

20PNG LNG
Egyptian LNG

10ALNG T2/30Qatargas 2 4/5

Angola LNG
RasGas 2 T4NWS 4IEEJ © October 2022

Wheatstone

Segas

NWS 5
NLNG
Plus
6Qalhat
Sakhalin 2

MLNG Tiga
RasGas 2 T3
NLNG T3Darwin

SkikdaGorgonRasGas 2Peru
T5 LNGPlutoGassi Touil
EGLNG

Cameroon Kribi FLNG
Tortue FLNG
Corpus Christi Stage 3
Sabine Pass 1-2
Sabine Pass 6
Freeport LNG 1-2
Yamal LNG Sabine Pass 5
Qatar NFEAPLNG T1
APLNG T2Prelude
Corpus Christi 1-2
DonngiPetronas
Senoro FLNG 1
Cameron LNG

Venture Global Plaquemines
LNG Canada
Golden Pass

Costa Azul 1
Elba Island
Sabine Pass 3-4
QCLNGGLNG Ichthys
Corpus Christi 3
Freeport LNGCoral3
South FLNG
Petronas FLNG 2 Tangguh 351999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201020112012201320142015201620172018

Congo LNG

2019 2020 20212022

LNG Investment Should Be SupportedRecognising the need ofenergy supply and energy
security

Securing support to LNG
production projects,
Avoid return to coal including public financing
Supporting LNG downstream
Building publicconfidence in LNG infrastructure development
and natural gas. . . important role increased deliveries of LNG can play, . . .
investment in this sector is necessary in response to the current crisis.
. . publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be
Source: G7 Leaders’ Communiqué (Elmau, 28 June 2022)
appropriate. . .
6IEEJ © October 2022

Summary comments• Global LNG trade is expected to increase by 5% to 390 million
tonnes in 2022 from 372 million tonnes in 2021

Although the global natural gas consumption rebounded by 4.5% in 2021 from a 2%
decrease in 2020, the global gas demand in 2022 is expected to stay at almost thesame level as 2021, or even slightly decline
The future growth potential of global gas demand entails uncertainty due to the war in
Ukraine, the pandemic, and expensive gas prices, with forecast numbers for 2023 andthereafter are smaller than previous forecast• Gas prices in Europe and Asia have been in the highest levels inthe history and more expensive than crude oil since July 2021. In 2022, thegas and LNG markets embrace more uncertain factors.
Japan's average LNG import price in 2022 is expected to rise to USD 16.5 per million
Btu, from USD 10.13 in 2021 (Author’s estimates made in July)• The global LNG market has observed increasing sale andpurchase deals to procure mid- to long-term LNG supply.
Expectations are high that more investment in new LNG production andmore supporting policy measures should be realized
7IEEJ © October 2022

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp