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Risks to Humanity from
Climate Change – and theOpportunities from Managing
the Risks

Sir David King
Foreign Secretary’s Special
Representative for ClimateChange

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NASA GISS Temp. 01/1880 – 04/2016.
Base 1901 - 2000

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Climate change: the science
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 - 2035

40
Forecast
Gigatonnes p.a.

35
30
25
Required path
20
15
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

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Global INDCs compared withglobal carbon budgets

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Climate change: the risks

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Climate change: the science
European average summer temperature

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Extreme Weather

35-75,000 extra deaths over 2 wk

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Probability of exceeding 2 °C and 4°C
allowing for observational uncertainty

Projected likelihood of exceeding 2 °C and 4 °C from the RCPs. Temperaturetargets are set relative to pre-industrial levels.
Only RCP2.6 gives a reasonable chance of avoiding warming of 2 °C. All except
RCP8.5 have an appreciable chance of avoiding temperature increases of over 4°C.

IEEJ：October 2016 © IEEJ2016•1/5 Pakistan's total land area underwater(796,095 km2 : 307,374 miles2)•20 million people affected•10 million people drink unsafe water

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Sea level rise: actual vs committed

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Probability of exceeding 4°C

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UK leadership in tackling climatechange• First country to introduce comprehensive
legislation Climate Change Act (2008)• All – Party Agreement• $1.2bn committed to Green Climate Fund
• UK’s own International Climate Fund:$13bn• First country to commit to coal phase-out

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UK actions, commitments•

1997 renewables obligation on grid.

•2002 Energy Research Partnership, UKERC and Energy Technologies Institute formed.

•

2003, 2007 Energy White Papers; feed-in tariffs; Dept of Energy & Climate Changeformed.

•

2005 Gleneagles G8, topics: Climate Change and Development, commitment to raise ODA
to 0.7% GDP.

•2008, Clim Ch Act of Parliament, incl commitment 80% redn by 2050 & creation of ClimateChange Com. 5th Carbon Budget to 2032, 57% reduction.

•2011 International Climate Fund, £3.89bn REFINANCED AT A FURTHER £5.8bn inOctober 2015. $1.2bn committed to global Green Climate Fund.

•2016. First country to commit to complete coal phase-out, 2025.
Outcomes: 30% reduction achieved to date; 2028 Carbon Budget means 52% by 2028.
Pressure on EU.

IEEJ：October 2016 © IEEJ2016• The Current UK Government Position, with
DECC being incorporated into BIS.
• 2016 commitment to reduce emissions by57% by 2032.
• The impact of BREXIT.

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UNCLASSIFIEDIEEJ：October 2016 © IEEJ2016

Falling costs of Clean EnergyTechnologies

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Global Apollo Program becomes Mission
Innovation in Paris• Launched by Obama, Modi, Hollande and Cameron inParis.
• 20 nations + the EC/EU have joined, committed to
doubling Clean Energy RD&D by 2020: amounting toannual spend of aprox $30bn.
• Breakthrough Energy Coalition also announced,organised by Bill Gates, up to $20bn total over next 10years to spin out potential market facing Clean Energysolutions.
• Ministers agreed a framework on June 2nd 2016 in SanFrancisco.

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Mission Innovation•High-profile initiative to strengthen public funding of clean energyRD&D.

•22 nations, committed to doubling by 2020/2021: annual spend of approx$30bn.

•Breakthrough Energy Coalition, 29 investors pledged to invest $20bn insolutions.

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The co-benefits of the transition
to a low-carbon economy• Health: For example 2003 heatwave which expected torepresent a normal summer by 2040.
• Air quality: Tackling air pollution will help the UK meet its
carbon targets and improve health.

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Climate change: the economics
Opportunities across the UK economy:• 460,000 people were employed in the low carbon
sector in the UK in 2013

• Total turnover in 2013 £120bn.

Source: the Size and performance of the low carbon economy (Department for Business, Innovation, Skills 2015.)

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