IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Energy markets – the shortand the long term
Christof Rühl, Chief Economist, BP© BP 2012

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Outline• The economy• A year of disruptions• Long term implications• Conclusion

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Global growth: slow and on life support
2013 GDP and the good old days

Central Bank liquidity
Trillion $US*

Annual change, %% of world GDP

12%
10%

Avg 2002-07

8%
6%
4%
2%
OECDWorld

NonOECD

India

China

BrazilUSJapan

Eurozone0%
Fed + ECB + BoJ (rhs)*At constant 2011 exchange rates
Source: includes data from Thomson Reuters Datastream

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Europe struggles into recession
10-year benchmark bond yields

Eurozone indicators
Volume index

Source: includes data from Thomson Reuters Datastream%% per year

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

The US grows slowly
Components of domestic demand
Index: 1Q 2007=100“Fiscal cliff”
Budget deficit, % of GDP

Government

Additional
debt service

Lower revenues(extending current tax brakes)
Higher spending

Investment

Source: includes data from CBO August 2012 forecast and Thomson Reuters Datastream

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

The Chinese economy slows
Exports% y-o-y, 3m ma.

Commercial bank loans% y-o-yChange y-o-y, trillions of CNY

Short-term

Medium & long-term

Source: includes data from Thomson Reuters Datastream

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Energy in 2011 – disruptions and continuity
Supply disruptions
Mtoe“Arab Spring”

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics“Fukushima”

GDP and energy growth
Annual change, %IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Energy prices
Energy prices$/boe

Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey

2011 price changes
Annual change, %IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

The Fukushima Adjustment

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Natural gas markets in 2011
Production and consumption growth
Annual change, Bcm

Source: includes data from Platts

Regional gas prices$/MmbtuIEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

US natural gas market
Production
Bcm

Shale gas

Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration

Gas share in power generation

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Global gas trade
Gas exports
Bcm

LNG import growth in 2011
Annual change, Bcm

From Qatar
From AtlanticBasin

Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStats, Poten, Waterborne

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Coal prices and trade
Steam coal prices$/tonneImport growth in 2011
Annual change, Mtoe

FromIndonesia

From Russia

From US
FromColombia
From other*China, India, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan
Source: includes data from McCloskey, Eurostat, IHS CERAIEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Natural gas demand growth is concentrated in the non-OECD
DemandSupply

Bcf/d470

2030 level420370

OtherOtherIndia
China

N. America
FSUMid EastMid EastOtherAfrica
Australia
Mid EastOther
N. America

3202702010
Energy Outlook 2030

OECDNon-OECD
142010

LNG

Pipeline© BP 2012

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Unconventional gas will play a growing roleGas supply by region
North America
Bcf/dEnergy Outlook 2030

EuropeChina

Bcf/d

Bcf/d

15

© BP 2012

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Oil markets and trends

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Crude oil prices
Dated Brent

Dated Brent and WTI$/bbl
150$/bbl

130

Dated Brent
WTI

115

100

100
508502007

Dated Brent
Annual averages
2008 2009

Source: includes data from Platts2010 2011702012

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Oil production growth in 2011
DeclineIncrease

Mb/d

Non-OPECOPEC

Saudi Arabia

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Oil consumption growth in 2011
Largest changes
Kb/dRegional growth by fuel type
Kb/d

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Oil consumption and production
World liquids demand and supply
Mb/dOECD commercial oil stocks
Mbbls

35 Mbbl SPR release

Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Monthly Oil Data Services © OECD/International Energy Agency June 2012IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

US supply
US supply

US rig counts

Annual change, Kb/dRigs*Texas and North Dakota
Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Limits to oil consumption growth
Subsidised consumption% of global demand

Vehicle fuel economy$/bbl

Litres/100km for new sales* Includes light trucks
Source: includes data from the International Council for Clean Transportation and the US Environmental Protection Agency

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Global liquids – demand and supply
Mb/dDemandSupply2030 level

Other

OtherIraq

S&C AmSaudi

Mid East

Oil Sands

India

Biofuels

NGLs

BrazilUSChina

Energy Outlook 2030

23

© BP 2012

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America
Liquids supply by type

Growth from 2010 to 2030

Mb/d

Mb/d
OPEC share (rhs)

Other
Saudi
ArabiaIraq

Brazil
US Shale
Oil
Biofuels

NGLs

Canadian
Oil Sands
Other
RoW

Energy Outlook 2030

24

© BP 2012

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

The long term: energy security

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Impact of oil prices on the economy
2011 net oil import bill% GDP

Source: includes data from the International Monetary Fund

Net oil imports
Mb/d

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Regional energy imbalances
FSUEurope

N. America
Mid-East
Key:
Billion toe
Gas
OilCoal

China
India

S. & C. America

Net importers
Net exporters
Source: includes data from the International Monetary Fund

AfricaOther Asia PacificIEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe
Billion toe

India

China
Import share ofrespective fuel

EU27

US

42%

80%

91%

80%

94%

40%

6%

57%

47%

1990 2010 2030

1990 2010 2030

1990 2010 2030

32%

1990 2010 2030IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Long-term trends
Shares of world primary energy

Oil and gas reserves
Trillion bbls

OilCoalGas

Hydro
NuclearRenew.

Tcm

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Conclusion• Key to the 2011 response: flexible markets• Medium term: supply response, inter-fuel substitution and trade
optimisation• Long term: Global integration and its perils

IEEJ：2012 年10 月 禁無断転載

Energy markets – the shortand the long term
お問合せ：report@tky.ieej.co.jp© BP 2012