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The Future of Hydrogen
Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security, IEA
IEEJ, 27 September 2019

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2018 – a remarkable year for energy
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18

Mtoe

400
Nuclear
Coal

300

Oil
200

Renewables

100Gas

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional
performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices.
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Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high…
Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018
MtCO2600

4002000- 2002014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus.
Increases in efficiency, renewables, coal-to-gas switching and nuclear avoided 640 Mt of CO2 emissions.
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Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future?
• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plansby governments & companies in all parts of the world• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges
 Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential
 Decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes
 Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner hydrogen isneeded; and regulatory barriers persist

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Hydrogen is already part of the energy mix
1 000
800

60Gas

OtherRefining

40

Chemicals
200

Hydrogen production costs, 2018
USD/kg80

CO2Mt/yr

Mt/yr

Hydrogen production

600

6Oil
4Coal

400

2200

2018

8020180Natural gas Natural gas
w/CCUS

CoalRenewables

Dedicated hydrogen production is concentrated in very few sectors today, and virtually all of it isproduced using fossil fuels, as a result of favourable economics.
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Hydrogen production with CO2 capture is coming online

OperationalPlanned

Low-carbon hydrogen from fossil fuels is produced at commercial scale today, with more plants
planned. It is an opportunity to reduce emissions from refining and industry.
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Renewables hydrogen costs are set to decline
Long-term hydrogen production costs from solar & wind systems

USD/kgH2The declining costs of solar PV and wind could make them a low-cost source for hydrogen production
in regions with favourable resource conditions.
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The challenge to 2030: expand hydrogen beyond existing applications
Growth in hydrogen use based on announced policies, 2018-2030
Growth to 2030, 24 Mt

New uses

Chemicals

Buildings

Refining

TrucksSteel

New uses

Cars
Other

Dependable demand from current industrial applications can be used to boost clean hydrogen production;
policies & industry targets suggest increasing use in other sectors, but ambition needs to increase.
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Four key opportunities for scaling up hydrogen to 2030

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Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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