IEEJ：May 2021 © IEEJ2021

Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
IEEJ Global Energy Webinar
Tokyo / Paris, 28 May 2021

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20320

1515240

1010160

5580

Total final consumption
600

Hydrogen-based fuel final demand

Bioenergy supply

Wind and solar share

40100%

450

30

75%

300

2050%

150

1025%

EJ

EJ

20

Energy-related CO2 removal
EJ

CO2 capture
Gt CO2Gt CO2The IEA’s NZE in 2050 compared with IPCC net-zero scenarios

Scenarios
assessedby IPCCIEA NZEscenario

The IEA NZE scenario uses more renewables, energy efficiency, and hydrogen – and less CO2 capture,negative emissions and bioenergy – than IPCC scenarios of a comparable ambition
IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

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Make the 2020s the decade of massive clean energy expansion
Electric car sales(millions)

Solar PV and windcapacity additions (GW)
1 200

60

1 000

50Wind800

54-4% per year40

3x 18x4600

Energy intensity of GDP(MJ per USD PPP)

30400

SolarPV200

20202030

2201102020

2030

2020

2030

Technologies for achieving the necessary deep cuts in global emissions by 2030 exist,
but staying on the narrow path to net-zero requires their immediate and massive deployment.
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IEEJ：May 2021 © IEEJ2021

Drive a historic surge in clean energy investment

Trillion USD (2019)

Clean energy investment

Additional annual global GDP growth in NZE
0.4%

54
End-use0.3%

32

Energy infrastructure

1

Electricity generation
End-useEnergy infrastructure
Electricity generation
Low-emissions fuels

2016-202030

0.2%
0.1%
0%

2021-2030

Annual clean energy investment more than triples by 2030 in the NZE scenario,,driving an average 0.4% per year increase in global GDP to 2030 & speeding the recovery from the COVID-19 shock
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Clean energy jobs will grow strongly but must be spread widely

Million jobs

Jobs in energy supply in the NZE

Skill level of new workers in the NZE, 2030

60Low, 8%50Losses

40

Bioenergy

GrowthElectricity

30

CoalOil and gas20Medium,27%
High, 65%

1020192030

By 2030 there are 14 million jobs created in global energy supply, and a further 16 million in clean energy end-uses;
but inclusive policies are needed to support reskilling & diversification in fossil-fuel dependent communities
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Prepare for the next phase of the transition by boosting innovation
CO2 savings by technology maturity in 2050, NZE scenario
Behaviour 4%

Refrigerant-free advanced cooling

Autonomous trucks

Advanced batteries

Optimised heat pump with storage

Direct air capture

Next-generation biofuels

CO2 capture from cement

Hydrogen-based steel
Small modular reactors

Synthetic liquid fuels

Underdevelopment
46%

Ammonia-powered ships
In the market
50%

Electrolytic hydrogen for methanol

Building-integrated storage
Electric steam crackers

Electrolytic hydrogen for ammonia

Unlocking the next generation of low-carbon technologies requires more clean energy R&D and $90 billion indemonstrations by 2030; without greater international co-operation, global CO2 will not fall to net-zero by 2050.
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Address emerging energy security risks now

Critical minerals demand

8052%
OPEC share60

205040

OtherLithium

30Graphite
Nickel204034%2020

102050Electricity system flexibility needs

Copper

2020

2050

Increasing flexibility

100Mtmbd

Oil supply and OPEC sharex4

2020

2050

New energy security concerns emerge, and old ones remain; governments need to proactively plan for energy
security risks related to market concentration, critical minerals and electricity systems.
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Set near-term milestones to get on track for long-term targets
carbon - lowMost innovativeemissions technologies
in heavy industry
demonstrated at scale-Gt CO2

Electric cars are
60% of sales

3530
2520

Buildings

No new sales offossil fuel boilers

All new buildings are
zero-carbon ready
Universal energy accessof sales
All appliancesand cooling
All industrial electricmotors are best in class

No new ICE car sales
Electric heavy trucks
are 50% of sales
Most appliances and coolingsystems are best in class

Almost 90% of existing
capacity in heavy industries
reaches end of theirinvestment cycle

More than 90% of heavy
industry production islow emissions

50% of fuels used inaviation are sustainable
Half of existing buildings
Half of heating demand
retrofitted to zero-carbon
met by heat pumps
ready levels

More than 85% ofbuildings are
zero-carbon readyTransport
Industry

15
105Electricity
Other

2020

2025

No new unabated coal plants
approved for development
No new oil and gas fields
approved for development,
and no new coal mines ormine extensions

IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

2035

2040

Overall net zero electricity
in advanced economies

Net zero electricity
sector globally

2030
1 020 GW annual solar
and wind additions
Phase-out of unabated coalin advanced economies

2045

Phase-out of all unabatedcoal and oil power plants
4 Gt CO2 captured

150 Mt low-carbon hydrogen;
850 GW electrolysers

2050
Almost 70% of electricity
generation globally fromsolar PV and wind
7.6 Gt CO2 captured

435 Mt low-carbon hydrogen;3 000 GW electrolysers
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Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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