Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions
Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security
IEEJ, 19 July 2022

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Context• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruptions in global energy supply have made governments
rethink their energy security strategies, targeting diverse and domestic supplies• Governments in over 70 countries have committed to achieving net zero emissions, covering
three-quarters of global emissions and economic activity• Peaking CO2 emissions this decade and starting a long-term decline is essential to keep the door
open to limiting climate change to 1.5 °C• The policy landscape is changing, opening up opportunities for nuclear to make a comeback

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Page 2

Nuclear is the second largest low emissions source today
Low emissions electricity generation by source worldwide, 2020

TWh5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0HydroNuclearWindSolar PV

Bioenergy Geothermal

CSP

MarineCoal with
CCUS

Nuclear power produced more low emissions electricity than solar PV and wind combined in 2020,and each year helps to avoid about 1.5 Gt of CO2 emissions around the world
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Page 3

The future is electric and low emissions
Electricity generation by source in the NZE

Average annual low emissions capacity additions
1 600
GW

TWh80 000

60 000

1 200

40 000800

20 000

4000
2010
2020
2030
Low emissions sources
Unabated coal

02040
2050
Unabated natural gas

2011-202021-30

2031-40

2041-50

Oil

Low emission sources of electricity scale up rapidly to meet electricity demand growth and replace unabated fossil
fuels in the path to net zero, with an average of over 1 100 GW of new low emissions capacity added per year to 2050
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Page 4Delays and cost overruns have troubled the nuclear industry

USD per kW

Overnight cost and construction times for selected recent nuclear projects
10 000Initial Estimate
8 000

Latest Estimate

Flamanville 3(France)

Vogtle 3 and 4(United States)

Final Cost

6 000

Olkiluoto 3(Finland)

4 000
Shin Kori 3 and 4(Korea)

2 00000510Years

1520

Although advanced economies have nearly 70% of global nuclear capacity, investment stalled decades ago and thelatest projects are running far over budget and behind schedule.
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Page 5

Nuclear market leadership shifting from advanced economies
Nuclear power construction starts by national origin of technology, 2017-2022

Number of reactor starts

10
Other
8Chinese
Russian

6420
2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022 Year to date

Of the 31 reactors that began construction since the beginning of 2017, all but four are of Russian or Chinese design.
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Nuclear capacity doubles to 2050 on the path to Net ZeroWorld nuclear power capacity in the NZE1 000
GW

Other emerging
market and developing
economies

800

China

600

Other advancedeconomies

400

G7 members

20002000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

To complement renewables in the NZE, the nuclear industry must deliver new projects on time and on budget, withprojects in advanced economies needing to cut costs by almost half from ongoing projects.
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Page 7

Investment in nuclear power must step up

USD billion

Nuclear power average annual investment
120
Other emerging economies
100
China
80
Other advanced economies
60
G7 members

40200
20112015

20162020

Historical20212025

20262030

20312035

20362040

20412045

20462050

Projections

Capital investment in nuclear power needs to triple globally over the next decade on the path to Net Zero by 2050,
rising in all active markets
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Page 8

Nuclear could still face a steep decline in advanced economies
Existing nuclear power capacity in advanced economies
300
GW

Total advanced economies
Other advanced economies

200

CanadaUnited States

100
European Union
0

UpdatedPrevious
Nuclear
NuclearFade Case Fade Case20212030

Net ZeroUpdatedPrevious
Nuclear
NuclearFade Case Fade CaseNet Zero

2040

Lifetime extensions have been granted for 50 GW of nuclear capacity since 2019, but the existing fleet of nuclear
reactors can contribute much more to affordable and secure clean energy transitions.
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Page 9

The path to net zero with less nuclear is narrower

GW

Change in capacity in the Low Nuclear Case relative to the NZE
2 000

Other dispatchable
Batteries

1 500

Wind
1 000

Solar PV
Fossil fuels with CCUS500

Nuclear
0- 500-1 0002025

20302035

2040

2045

2050

While reaching net zero by 2050 would still be possible, failing to step up nuclear construction or extend lifetimes ,would cost consumers USD 20 billion more per year and strain supply chains and the need for critical minerals
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Page 10

A larger role can open up with lower nuclear costs

USD per kW

5000

NZE range

4000

Market size for low emissions sources in the NZE, 2031-40
1 200
Billion USD

Nuclear cost levels to compete in 2030

1 000
800

3000600
2000
400
1000

200

00Electricity

HydrogenHeatElectricity

Hydrogen

Heat

Nuclear energy can deliver low emissions electricity, heat and hydrogen.
Further cost declines than in the NZE would enable it to capture higher market shares.
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Page 11Market designs and risk mitigation can boost nuclear
Contribution to electricity system services by resource in China
2020

2060
Inertia
Ramping
flexibility
Peakcapacity/adequacy
Energy0%
Thermal20%

Variable renewables

40%
60%
80%
Abated thermal
Bioenergy

100%
Clean fuels0%

Other renewables

20%
40%
HydroStorage

60%

80%
100%Nuclear
Demand response

Alongside other dispatchable sources, nuclear power can contribute to the reliability, stability and security of powersystems to a greater degree than its share of generation alone suggests
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Page 12

The net zero challenge has stimulated a burst of activity on SMRs
Number of small modular reactor projects in the world by status of development
50< 25 MW
25 MW < C < 100 MW

40

100 MW < C < 300 MW
30> 300 MW

20100
Conceptual
designBasic and detailed
designs

Underconstruction

In operation

With the recent momentum, small modular reactors could complement large reactors and play a significant part inenergy transitions, provided investments and development decisions are made now
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Page 13

Conclusions• In countries where it is accepted, nuclear energy could play an important role in ensuring rapid andsecure energy transitions.
• Energy transitions with less nuclear would be more difficult and costly.
• Investments in nuclear must step up fast. Existing nuclear plants must be extended.
• The nuclear industry has to deliver new projects on time and on budget.
• Electricity market designs must recognise the value of dispatchable low emissions capacity.
• Governments should promote efficient and effective safety regulation, implement solutions for nuclear
waste disposal and create financing frameworks for new reactors.
• Net zero would require innovation in many areas. Small modular reactors are a promising technology.
• The IEA stands ready to support the security, affordability and sustainability of energy through an allfuels and all technologies approach.

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