Climate Science andInternational Cooperation＜Personal notes for brain-storming＞

26th January 2018

＠GEOC
平石 尹彦
Taka Hiraishi<taka.hiraishi@gmail.com>

Contents• Climate Science - Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)• UNFCCC

2

“IPCC” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)<http://www.ipcc.ch/>• Established by UNEP and WMO in 1988.
• Members are Governments ….. Currently 195• Reports have been prepared by;– Authors ………………….. A few thousands– Other contributors ….. More than 10,000 (?)– Secretariat• Central Secretariat in Geneva• Technical Support Units, and their supportingorganisations (such as the IGES)
IPCC carries out assessment of peer-reviewed literature,
IPCC does not carry out research nor recommend any policies.
“IPCC should be policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive.”
3

IPCC organisation
There is a small
Secretariat in
Geneva, andTechnical Support
Units are in four
host countries.

(France)(Germany)(UK/India)(Japan)4

2015 IPCC Bureau Members
IPCC Bureau is composed of thefollowing. a.+b.+c. are members of
the Executive Committee (See Left)a. Chair (1)b. IPCC Vice-chairs (3)c. WG & TFI Co-chairs (8)d. WG-Vice-chairs (22)e. TFB members (14)Stepwise election is carried out for:(i) Chair, (ii) IPCC Vice-chairs, (iii)
WG & TFI Co-chairs, (iv) WG Vice
Chairs, (v) TFB members
Rules exist on regional distribution.
Note: Mr. Kiyoto Tanabe is my
successor.
http://ipcc.ch/organization/organiz
ation_structure.shtml#

5

IPCC Writing and Review Process
IPCC Reports aredrafted(synthesisinginternational peerreviewed
literature) byselected authors,and go throughtwo stages ofinternational Peer
Review Process.
Thus, they
represent a broad
spectrum ofinternational
science
IPCC

6Example
WG-I AR5
Prepared by 259 authors.

54,677 comments received.
Approved by the Panelin September 2013
SPM

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Full Report

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf

First Assessment Report(1990) (FAR)
第1次アセスメント報告書：国連温暖化条約の2年前。

Second Assessment
Report (1995) (SAR)
第2次アセスメント報告書: 京都議定書締結の2年前。

Third Assessment Report(2001) (TAR)
第3次アセスメント報告書： 各国が京都議定書の批准を検討している時期に出された。

Fourth Assessment Report(2007) (AR4)
第4次アセスメント報告書： 2013年以降の国際合意の検討の時期に出された。

Fifth Assessment Report(2013-14) (AR5)第5次アセスメント報告書

WG-I

WG-II

WG-III

Synthesis Report(統合報告書)8

2007 Nobel Peace Prize!
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
and Albert Arnold (Al) GoreJr. were awarded of theNobel Peace Prize "fortheir efforts to build up anddisseminate greater
knowledge about man-madeclimate change, and to lay
the foundations for themeasures that are needed tocounteract such change".
9IPCC Special Reports
Regional Impacts(1997)

Ozone
Layer(2005)

Aviation(1999)

CO2
Captureand Storage(2005)

LUCF (2000)

Renewable
Energy(May 2011)

Emission Scenarios(2000)

Extreme Eventsand Disasters(November
2011)

Technology
Transfer (2000)
10IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5)IPCC Panel Sessions approved Working Group AR5 Repoert at:
WG-I <September 2013 in Stockholm>,
WG-II <March 2014 in Yokohama>, and
WG-III <April 2014 in Berlin>
IPCC approved AR5 Synthesis Report in October 2014 in Copenhagen.
<http://www.ipcc.ch/>11

Overall Summary
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climatechanges have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.
• Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming andlong-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the
likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people andecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial andsustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together withadaptation, can limit climate change risks.
• Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing andmanaging the risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions overthe next few decades can reduce climate risks in the 21st century andbeyond, increase prospects for effective adaptation, reduce the costs andchallenges of mitigation in the longer term, and contribute to climateresilient pathways for sustainable development.
• Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change,
but no single option is sufficient by itself. Effective implementation depends
on policies and cooperation at all scales, and can be enhanced throughintegrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation with other societal
objectives.
•

12

Observed Changes•••

Warming of theclimate system isunequivocal, andsince the 1950s,
many of theobservedchanges are
unprecedented
over decades tomillennia. The
atmosphere andocean havewarmed, theamounts of snow
and ice havediminished, andsea level has
risen.
The total increase
between the
average of the
1850–1900
period and the
2003–2012
period is 0.78
[0.72 to 0.85],
based on the
single longest
dataset available.

13

Atmospheric GHG Concentrations
The atmosphericconcentrations ofcarbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased
to levels
unprecedented in atleast the last 800,000
years. Carbon dioxide
concentrations haveincreased by 40%
since pre-industrial
times, primarily fromfossil fuel emissions
and secondarily fromnet land use change
emissions.
14

Ocean “Acidification”• The ocean has
absorbed
about 30% of
the emitted
anthropogeni
c carbondioxide,causing ocean
acidification,and the pH of
ocean surface
water hasdecreased by
0.1.
15

16

Emissions of GHGs

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 have reached 49 ± 4.5 GtCO2
eq/yr. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2,
causing ocean acidification. About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions
between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years

17Drivers of Climate Change
Total radiative
forcing is
positive, and has
led to an uptakeof energy by theclimate system.
The largest
contribution tototal radiative
forcing is causedby the increase in
the atmosphericconcentration of
CO2 since 1750.
18

Climate Projections- Future temperature change projections are based on
RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways).
Projections at 2100 (relative to 1986-2005) range
between RCP 2.6 <0.3-1.7> and RCP 8.5 <2.6-4.8>.

19

Climate Impacts- It is generally
considered thatthe long-termclimatechanges are yet
to occur, butthere havebeen many
scientific
literaturereporting on
impacts,
includingextremeclimatic events
since 1950s.）

20Future Projections

21

Climate Mitigation – “Carbon Budget”- Cumulative emissions of CO2
largely determine global meansurface warming by the late 21st
century and beyond.
- Limiting total human-induced
warming to less than 2°C relative
to the period 1861-1880 with aprobability of >66% would require
cumulative CO2 emissions from allanthropogenic sources since 1870
to remain below about 2900
GtCO2 (with a range of 2550-3150
GtCO2 depending on non-CO2
drivers). About 1900 GtCO28 hadalready been emitted by 2011.

22

Key Risks in Asia

23

Adaptation & Mitigation• Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address
climate change, but no single option is sufficient by itself.
Effective implementation depends on policies andcooperation at all scales, and can be enhanced throughintegrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation
with other societal objectives.
• Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will dependon policies and measures across multiple scales:international, regional, national and sub-national. Policies
across all scales supporting technology development,
diffusion and transfer, as well as finance for responses toclimate change, can complement and enhance theeffectiveness of policies that directly promote adaptationand mitigation.
24

Mitigation• There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit
warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Thesepathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the
next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other longlived GHGs by the end of the century.
• Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological,
economic, social, and institutional challenges, which increase withdelays in additional mitigation and if key technologies are notavailable.
• Mitigation options are available in every major sector. Mitigation
can be more cost-effective if using an integrated approach thatcombines measures to reduce energy use and the GHG intensity of
end-use sectors, decarbonize energy supply, reduce net emissions
and enhance carbon sinks in land-based sectors.
• Climate change is a threat to sustainable development. Nonetheless,there are many opportunities to link mitigation, adaptation and the
pursuit of other societal objectives through integrated responses.
25

IPCC GHG Inventories
Programme

26

IPCC - NGGIP Products“1995” and “Revised 1996” IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm>(cf. COP Decisions 4/CP.1, 9/CP.2, 2/CP.3 & 17/CP.8)

Volume 1
ReportingInstructions

Volume 2
Workbook+
IPCC Software

Volume 3
Reference
Manual27

IPCC NGGIP Products
IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories“GPG-2000”<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/> (All UN language versions)

Complements the Revised
1996 IPCC Guidelines

published in 2000
Use by Annex-I Parties required by"FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9 and 20/CMP.1.
For Non-Annex-I Parties, Dec.17/CP.8
encourages its use.

28

IPCC NGGIP Products
IPCC Good Practice Guidance forLand use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, 2003
<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm>

Use by Annex I Parties required by
FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9 and Decision 17/CMP.1).
Non-annex I Parties are encouraged to use by Decision 13/CP.9

Complements the Revised 1996
IPCC Guidelines.
GPG-LULUCF provides
supplementary methods and goodpractice guidance for estimating,measuring, monitoring andreporting on carbon stock changes
and greenhouse gas emissions
from LULUCF activities under
Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4, andArticles 6 and 12 of the Kyoto
Protocol.
29

Output of the NGGIP

2006 IPCC Inventory Guidelines(2,000 pages, 10 Kgs. Adopted by IPCC 26 (Mauritius, April 2006)• Revision of the Revised 1996GLs
was completed on April 2006.
<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.htm>• Use by Annex I Parties from 2015
onwards< Decision 15/CP.17>•

30

IPCC and UNFCCC• The IPCC TFI guidelines provide:– Default methodologies and data for estimating andreporting national annual human-made emissions andremovals,– “Good Practice” – neither over- nor under-estimate
inventories as far as can be judged and uncertainties
are reduced as far as possible.
– General Reporting Guidance.

• The UNFCCC agrees which guidelines to use andhow to report:– Developed countries will use 2006 IPCC Guidelines
from 2013 onwards,– Developing countries will use 1996 Guidelines, andare encouraged to use 2000 and 2003 Good PracticeGuidance.,
31

In October 2013, IPCC adopted;
2013 Supplement to the 2006 Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands(Wetlands Supplement)<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/home/wetlands.html>

and2013 Revised Supplementary Methods andGood Practice Guidance Arising from the Kyoto
Protocol<http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/home/2013KPSupplementaryGuidance_inv.html>

32

IPCC Inventory Software• This is one of the TFI activities to assist the use of
the IPCC Guidelines, particularly by developing
countries• The software will:– aid preparation of national GHG inventories according
to 2006 Guidelines either for complete inventories orfor separate categories or groups of categories.
– assist in training and inventory review– harmonise reporting of greenhouse gas inventories– archive data and complete inventories (which may
consist of estimates for a number of years).

• The IPCC Inventory Software is now available forfree. It can be downloaded from:http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/software/index.html
33

The Emission Factor Database• The IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB):– Is an electronic library of data useful to inventory
compilers– Enables users to judge if the data is applicable to their
specific circumstances– Provides references to source documents– Is freely available to all– Allows anyone to share data with others– All data is evaluated by Editorial Board– Is aimed at developing countries and those with34
limited resources
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/main.php

34

Future IPCC Reports• Special Report on 1.5 degrees in Sept. 2018
• Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in
Sept. 2019
• Special Report on Land in Sept. 2019
• Methodological Report (Refinements of IPCC
GHG Inventory Guidelines) in May 2019
• Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in 2022

35

United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and International
Negotiations<http://unfccc.int/2860.php>36

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)• UNFCCC text was agreed upon in New York in May
1992, and opened for signature at UNCED in June 1992.
• The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994.
• Currently, there are 197 Parties (196 States and 1
regional economic integration organization (EU)).
• It is a “framework” agreement, which sets forth thefundamental principles, and provides bases for concrete
actions, such as the Kyoto Protocol.
• It contains many fundamental provisions, such as“ultimate objectives” and “common but differentiatedresponsibilities”.
37

Kyoto Protocol• Adopted on 11th December 1997 at COP 3 in Kyoto.
• KP Annex B provides “Quantified emission limitation or reduction
commitment” for Annex B Parties, which aims at their overall emissions
by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment
period, 2008 to 2012.
• To take effect, it required ratification by more than 55
UNFCCC Parties, and more than 55% of CO2 emissions (of1990) by UNFCCC Annex-I Parties• The Protocol provides for “Kyoto Mechanisms”, which contain
Emission Trading, Joint Implementation and Clean
Development Mechanism). They are meant to (i) stimulate
sustainable development through technology transfer andinvestment, (ii) help countries with Kyoto commitments tomeet their targets by reducing emissions or removing carbon
from the atmosphere in other countries in a cost-effective way
and (iii) encourage the private sector and developing countries
to contribute to emission reduction efforts.
38

Backgrounds• Difference of N-S positions before UNCED (textadopted in May 1992) is reflected in “Common
But Differentiated Responsibilities.”• The Kyoto Protocol adopted at COP3 (1997, in
Kyoto) contains mitigation responsibilities ofAnnex I Parties only.
• There are some differences among the G77&China Group, such as those of BASIC, Least
Developed Countries, AOSISs and oil producer
countries.
• At COP 13 in Bali, Indonesia (December 2007)
COP adopted “Bali Action Plan”, which started
two track approach – AWG-LCA and AWG-KP.
39

Towards Climate Actions Beyond 2012
• The First Commitment Period under KP was toend on 31st December 2012.
• COP13 (2007) adopted the Bali Action Plan,
which referred to, for the first time, actions by
developing countries!

40

Bali Action Plan (Decision 1/CP.13)
1. Decides to launch a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective andsustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative
action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome andadopt a decision at its fifteenth session, by addressing, inter alia:(b) (i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigationcommitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction
objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability ofefforts among them, taking into account differences in their national
circumstances;(ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in thecontext of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology,
financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner(iii) Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing
emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; therole of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement offorest carbon stocks in developing countries;(iv) (Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific actions,)(v) (Consequences)(c) (adaptation)(d) (Technology transfer)
– …..
41

COP15 and two AWGs
• From 2008, two parallel extremely difficult
negotiations continued - Ad hoc Working Group on
Long Term Actions （AWG-LCA) and Ad hoc Working
Group on Further Commitments of Annex I Parties
under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)• Most notable N-S differences were; on the need ofcoherence between the two AWGs, possibility ofagreeing on a new integrated legal instrument covering
all Parties, level of ambitions of mitigation targets, andso forth.
• Copenhagen COP15 (where more than 130 Head ofStates participated) only took note of the Copenhagenagreement – a major failure!
42

COP16 and 17• Cancun COP16 (2010) managed to adopt the Cauncun Agreement,
but a large number of technical details were left for further
negotiations.
• Durban COP17 (2011） dealt with many difficult questions, mostnotably, contiguous commitment after the end of the First
Commitment, level of mitigation targets (of Annex-I Parties),
Climate Funding, Technology Development and Transfer.
• Although Russia, Canada and Japan declared that they would notparticipate in the continued commitment (Annex B of Kyoto
Protocol), contiguous extension of Kyoto Commitment was agreed
by EU and developing countries. (At the time of COP17, all these
opponent countries remained KP party, but Canada later declaredthat it will leave from KP). US will remain non-KP Party, whichmeans that the extended commitment will cover only 14% of global
emissions.
43Outcome from COP18/CP8(2012, Doha)• CMP 8 decided that the second commitment
period under the Kyoto Protocol begins on 1
January 2013 and end on 31 December 2020,
to be decided by the AWG-KP 17 (in 2012).
• Adopted I: Annex B Table, II: Gases (NF3
Added), III: KP Amendments.

44

Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action• COP extended AWG-LCA by one year.
• COP decided to launch a process to develop a protocol,

another legal instrument or an agreed outcome
with legal force under UNFCCC applicablele to all
Parties, and covering areas including, inter alia, on mitigation,

adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer,transparency of action, and support and capacity-building, drawing
upon submissions (by 28th February 2012), though an AWG-DPEA. It
will initiate its work from first half of 2012. It shall complete its
work as early as possible but no later than 2015.
• Further decided that the process shall raise the level of ambitionand shall be informed, inter alia, by the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the outcomes ofthe 2013-2015 review and the work of the subsidiary bodies;45

Towards COP21/CMP11• Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx• There have been a number of analyses of thesubmitted INDCs, such as;– Climate Action Trackers’

http://climateactiontracker.org/news/222/Emissions-Gap-How-close-are-INDCs-to-2-and-1.5C-pathways.html– OECD/IEA<http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/Overview-of-INDCs-Sep2015.pdf>– UNFCCC Secretariat<http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/cop22/eng/02.pdf＞– WRI

http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI_WP_InterpretingINDCs.pdf• In Addition, UNEP’s “2015 and 2016 Gap Reports” arerelevant.

http://uneplive.unep.org/media/docs/theme/13/EGR_2015_301115_lores.pdf
http://drustage.unep.org/adaptationgapreport/sites/unep.org.adaptationgapreport/files/documents/agr2016.pdf

46

Overview• COP 21 adopted;–COP21 Decisions – provided
fundamental principles and steps till
the Paris Agreement takes effect.
–“Paris Agreement” – a legal text tobe applied to all Parties, but it does
not contain mandatory actions suchas quantitative mitigationcommitments.
47

Major elements of COP21 Decision - 1
2. … the Agreement will be opened for signature from 22nd April 2016
7. Decides to establish the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement(“APA”) under the same arrangement,
11. Decides that the APA shall hold its sessions starting in 2016 … and shallprepare draft decisions to be recommended through the Conference of
the Parties to the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of theParties to the Paris Agreement (“CMA”) for consideration and adoption at
its first session;
17. Notes with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas
emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the intended nationallydetermined contributions do not fall within least-cost 2 ˚C scenarios but
rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030, and also notesthat much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those
associated with the intended nationally determined contributions in orderto hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 ˚Cabove pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to
1.5 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by reducing to a level to be identified in
the special report referred to in paragraph 21 below;

48

Major elements of COP21 Decision - 2
19. Requests the secretariat to update the synthesis
report [of INDCs] … and to make it available by 2 May
2016;
20. Decides to convene a facilitative dialogue among
Parties in 2018 to take stock of the collective efforts ofParties in relation to progress towards the long-termgoal referred to in Article 4, paragraph 1, of theAgreement and to inform the preparation of nationallydetermined contributions pursuant to Article 4,paragraph 8, of the Agreement;
21. Invites the IPCC to provide a special report in 2018
on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and related global greenhouse gas
emission pathways; [IPCC decided to prepare suchreport by 2018.]
49

Major elements of COP21 Decision - 3
22. Invites Parties to communicate their intended nationallydetermined contribution (INDC) no later than when the Party submits
its respective instrument of ratification, accession, or approval of theParis Agreement. If a Party has communicated an INDC prior tojoining the Agreement, that Party shall be considered to havesatisfied this provision unless that Party
decides otherwise
23. Urges those Parties whose INDC pursuant to decision 1/CP.20
contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new NDC
and to do so every five years thereafter pursuant to Article 4,paragraph 9, of the Agreement;
24. Requests those Parties … INDC … contains a time frame up to 2030
to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions and to do soevery five years thereafter … ;25. Decides that Parties shall submit … their nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) referred to in Article 4 of the Agreement at least
9 to 12 months in advance of [CPA].
26. Requests the ADP to develop further guidance on features of[NDCs]

50

Paris Agreement Articles

51

Paris Agreement Article 2. (Purpose)
1. This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention,
including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat ofclimate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts toeradicate poverty, including by:(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below
2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit thetemperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that
this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change
and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development,
in a manner that does not threaten food production;(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhousegas emissions and climate-resilient development.
2. This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle ofcommon but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in thelight of different national circumstances.

52

“2 degree target” was not a conclusion fromscience, though this graph shows something ...

53

GHG Emission data for Article 21.

Other Statistics of GHG Emissions

Country

GHG Gt-CO2-eq％

Data Year

China

7465862

20.09

2005

USA

6649700

17.89

2013

EU

4488404

12.10

2013

Russian F.

2799434

7.53

2013

India

1523767

4.10

2000

Japan

1407800

3.79

2013

Brazil923544

2.48

2010

1.95

2013

Canada726051

R.o.Korea

6883001.85

2010

Mexico6328801.70

2013South Africa

544314

1.46

2010

Australia

541924

1.46

2013

Global37 168 339

100

Mixed

Source: UNFCCC Secretariat
http://unfccc.int/files/ghg_data/appli
cation/pdf/table.pdf<Source: USEPA>
54

Paris Agreement Article 14.
(Stocktaking)1. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of theParties to the Paris Agreement shall periodically take stock of theimplementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress
towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-termgoals (referred to as the “global stocktake”). It shall do so in acomprehensive and facilitative manner, considering mitigation,
adaptation and the means of implementation and support, and in
the light of equity and the best available science.
2. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of theParties to the Paris Agreement shall undertake its first global
stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter unless otherwise
decided by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of
the Parties to the Paris Agreement.
3. The outcome of the global stocktake shall inform Parties in
updating and enhancing, in a nationally determined manner, theiractions and support in accordance with the relevant provisions of
this Agreement, as well as in enhancing international cooperation
for climate action.
55

DJT Administration• On 1st June 2017, President Trump announced the US decision ofwithdrawal from the PA.
•<https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/01/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord>• (Please note relevant PA Articles, especially, Article 28.)

PA Article 28
1. At any time after three years from the date on which this Agreement
has entered into force for a Party, that Party may withdraw from thisAgreement by giving written notification to the Depositary.
2. Any such withdrawal shall take effect upon expiry of one year fromthe date of receipt by the Depositary of the notification of withdrawal,
or on such later date as may be specified in the notification ofwithdrawal.
3. Any Party that withdraws from the Convention shall be consideredas also having withdrawn from this Agreement.
56

G-20 (Hamburg, in July 2017)
Declaration of G-20 contains a paragraph specifically on US, which shows
very clear contrast with the other positive actions of the other countries.
• “We take note of the decision of the United States of America towithdraw from the Paris Agreement. The United States of America
announced it will immediately cease the implementation of its current
nationally-determined contribution and affirms its strong commitment
to an approach that lowers emissions while supporting economic
growth and improving energy security needs.”• On 4th August, USA submitted a notification to the UN on its intention towithdraw from the Paris Agreement.
https://www.g20.org/Content/EN/StatischeSeiten/G20/Texte/g20-gipfeldokumenteen.html?nn=2189118#doc2222590bodyText1

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/08/07/trump-tells-un-intention-leaveparis-climate-accord-full/57

For Japan• The level of ambition in INDC is very low.
• Since Japan does not participate in the KP Second
Commitment Period (CP-2), Japan can not use KP
Flexibility Mechanisms. In this regard, a Joint
Crediting Mechanism (JCM) is being implemented
as bilaterally-agreed system. This requires clear
justification in terms of Paris Agreement Article
6.2.
• Japan’s expansion of domestic coal-firing power
stations and international cooperation todeveloping countries might be subject tointernational scrutiny.
58日本のINDC – 国際比較(1)[外務省]「GDP当たり排出量を4割以上改善，一人当たり排出量を約2割改善することで，世界最高水準を維持するものであり，国際的にも遜色のない野心的な目標です。
– 日本のGDP当たりエネルギー消費量は現時点でも他のG7諸国の平均より約3割少なく，世界の最高水準にあります。そこからさらに2030年に向けて35％のエネルギー
効率の改善を目指します。
– 上記エネルギーミックスでは，総発電電力量に占める再生可能エネルギーの比率を22-24％程度，原子力の比率を22-20％程度としています（足下から，太陽光は7倍，風力・地熱は4倍の発電電力量を見込んでいます）。」http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/ic/ch/page1w_000121.ht
ml日本のINDC – 国際比較(2)

日本は?
•

•

現在、京都議定書の第2次コミットメントには不参加。したがって、それに基づく国際的なマーケットメカニズムは使えない状況。京都メカニズとムと国際的な削減目標の設定は、炭素価格の決定の有効な手法の一つと考えられるが、それが十分に機能していない状況なのでは?
JCM (Joint Crediting Mechanism)が国際的にどのように認知されるかは、
なお、未確定な面あり(パリ協定6条参照）。
PAの関連では、EUは、2030年までに40%、スイスは2030年までに50%削減とのINDCを出している。日本は、これらはもちろん、米国(2005年=>2025年で、26-28%)と比較しても非常に低いレベルの削減目標(2013年=>2030
年で、26%)を出しており、COP21の合意に則った INDC(NDC) の改善が必要ではないか?中期目標は、2050年までの長期削減（80%削減(閣議決定））への過程として考えていく必要があろう。最近の石炭火力の増加は、国際的な批判の的になっている。

Source: http://germanwatch.org/en/CCPI

61

Thank you for your attention!

62

Taka Hiraishi•Born in Tokyo on 3rd December 1944.
•B.Sc. (1966) and M.Sc. for Industrial Chemistry (1968) from Tokyo University.
•Joined Ministry of Labour (Occupational Health and Safety Department) in April 1968.
•Moved to the newly-established Environment Agency in 1971 and, till 1996, worked in the fields of offensive odour, acid rain, ozone layer,
hazardous wastes, hazardous chemicals and water pollution, except the overseas posting shown below.
•1987-1989: Director, Water Pollution Control Division, Environment Agency (current Ministry of the Environment) (1987-89)
Overseas posting:•1975-1978: Environment Attache (liaison with UNEP) and Second Secretary for bilateral technical co-operation (for Kenya, Uganda andMalawi) at the Embassy of Japan in Kenya.
•1980-1982: Principal Administrator (A-4, information exchange on chemicals control policies, including chemicals management policies indeveloping countries), Chemicals Division, Environment Directorate, OECD Secretariat.
•1989-1998: Worked for UNEP as (consecutively);Co-ordinator of Support Measures, Programme Bureau (D-1),
Officer-in-Charge, Environmental Law and Institutions Centre,Deputy Director of Policy Division,
Deputy Director of Environment Programme Division,
Assistant Executive Director for Environmental Information and Assessment (D-2).
(President, UNEP Staff Association (in 1996))
More recently,•1999-2006: Visiting Principal Researcher, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan.
•1999-2015: Member, IPCC Bureau and Co-chair, IPCC Inventories Task Force Bureau•1999-2015: Senior Consultant, and Member, Board of Directors, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan (Part-time),•February-April 2001: Special Advisor to the Minister of the Environment, Japan (Chair of Communique Drafting Group for G-7 Environment
Ministers).
•2002-2010: Special Advisor to the Minister of the Environment, Japan. (on OECD sustainable development activities, Part-time)•2005-2009: Specially assigned Professor (Risk Management and Global Environmental Issues), Osaka University, Japan (Part-time)•Vising Lecturer for Tokyo Institute of Technologies, Sophia University, Gakushuin University, Osaka University, Atomi University.
•2001- : Contributed to the work of the Ministry of the Environment in Japan for CDM, J-VER, JCM, adaptation and “co-benefits”•2002-2011: UNFCCC, member of CGE (Consultative Group on non-Annex-I national communications).
•2004-2008: UNFCCC, member of EGTT (Expert Group on Technology Transfer)
Currently:•Counsellor, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan (Volunteer),•Member, Board of Directors, Japan Association for UNEP (NPO) (Volunteer)