THE 9TH ANNUAL international conference on

Participating universities: Kobe University, Nanyang TechnologicalUniversity, National Taiwan University, University of Hawai i at
M noa

SEPTEMBER 25TH, 2024

Collaborators and Sponsors:
The Kobe University Center forSocial Systems Innovation(KUSSI)
Kobe University's Institute for
Promoting International
Partnerships Americas Division
Kobe University RokkodaiFoundation

Conference Agenda

The 9th Annual Conference on Applied Economics in Hawaii
Date: September 25th 2024
Location: Ala Moana Hotel (Honolulu, Hawaii)Sponsored by: Kobe University Rokkodai Foundation

Opening
8:45 - 9:00

Registration

9:00 - 9:10

Opening Remarks
Speaker: Takuji KINKYO, Kobe University

Session 1 (chair: Tomoko KINUGASA)
9:10 - 9:50

Presentation 1
Girls Help Girls but Not Boys: Revisiting Gender Peer Effects in Elementary
Schools
Speaker: Chihiro INOUE, Kobe University

9:50  10:00

Coffee break

10:00  11:00

Keynote Speech
Population Aging and its Economic Consequences
Speaker: Andrew MASON, University of Hawai i at M noa
Presentation 2

11:00  11:40

Foreign Caregivers and Health Outcomes
Speaker: Kuan-Ming CHEN, National Taiwan University

11:40  13:00

Lunch

Session 2 (chair: Takuji KINKYO)
13:00  13:40

Presentation 3Conditional Threshold Effects of Stock Market Volatility on Crude Oil MarketVolatility
Speaker: Kaiji MOTEGI, Kobe University

13:40  14:20

Presentation 4
Moon Walking: Road Lighting and Nighttime Pedestrian Deaths
Speaker: Justin TYNDALL, University of Hawai i at M noa

14:20  14:50

Coffee breakConference Agenda
Session 3 (chair: Nori TARUI)
14:50  15:30

Presentation 5
The Administrator and the Administered: Does Gender Matter for
Education?
Speaker: Akshar SAXENA, Nanyang Technological University

15:30  16:10

Presentation 6

Maui Wildfire Exposure Study: Community Health, Wellbeing, andResilienceSpeaker: Ruben JUAREZ, University of Hawai i at M noa
16:10  16:20

Closing Remarks
Speaker: Denise KONAN, University of Hawai i at M noa

Abstracts
Keynote Speech
Population Aging and its Economic Consequences
Andrew MASON, University of Hawai i at M noa
The world is experiencing rapid population aging and population decline. These
demographic changes will have important macroeconomic. These will be identified andquantified relying on National Transfer Accounts.

Presentation 1
Girls Help Girls but Not Boys: Revisiting Gender Peer Effects
in Elementary Schools
Chihiro INOUE, Kobe UniversityI estimate the effect of peer gender composition on test scores of elementary school
students, using data from Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Exploiting within-school andacross-cohort variation in gender composition, I show that a higher female ratio
increases girls' test scores but does not affect boys'. I find suggestive evidence thathaving more female peers improves the school learning environment but reduces boys
engagement in individual and peer learning, demonstrating that the absence of animpact on test scores does not imply a lack of an impact on student learning, withpositives and negatives for educational inputs.

Presentation 2
Foreign Caregivers and Health Outcomes
Kuan-Ming CHEN, National Taiwan University
We causally estimate how hiring a foreign caregiver impacts the care-receiver's health.
Utilizing policy reforms as a quasi-experiment, we analyze data from the Taiwan
Longitudinal Study on Aging (TLSA). Our findings reveal that hiring foreign caregivers
leads to significant improvements in health outcomes, such as reductions in inpatient,outpatient, and emergency department visits, as well as fewer falls.

Presentation 3
Conditional Threshold Effects of Stock Market Volatility
on Crude Oil Market Volatility
Kaiji MOTEGI, Kobe University
Modelling and predicting the volatility of crude oil returns are a vital area of research,since crude oil is one of the most actively traded commodities and a major source ofthe global energy supply. Volatility indicators often exhibit threshold effects:
asymmetric responses below versus above a certain cut-off level. It is plausible toassume that the threshold level is time-varying, as investors' perception on high versus
low volatility likely depends on time. Motivated by this insight, we analyze conditional
threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatility. We use theConditional Threshold Autoregressive (CoTAR) model, a novel generalization of TAR
where the threshold is specified as an empirical quantile of recent observations of athreshold variable. Our out-of-sample analysis finds that the CoTAR-based forecast issignificantly more accurate than the TAR-based forecast for some cases, and they are
as accurate as each other for other cases. CoTAR often outperforms TAR when
predicting a downside volatility measure of crude oil returns; it is a useful finding whichhelps market participants and policymakers better manage downward risks.

Presentation 4
Moon Walking: Road Lighting and Nighttime Pedestrian Deaths
Justin TYNDALL, University of Hawai i at M noa
The US recorded 7,400 pedestrian road deaths in 2021, 77% occurred during the night.
Low lighting during the night reduces visibility, potentially increasing the frequency andseverity of vehicle-pedestrian collisions. The causal effect of light conditions onpedestrian safety is not easily estimated because road conditions and travel behavior
differ from day to night, and artificial lighting is spatially endogenous with pedestrianrisk. I use complete US data on 190,000 nighttime pedestrian deaths, spanning 19752021. The phase of the moon provides a novel source of exogenous nightly variation inroad illumination. Across the US, pedestrian deaths increase by 5% on nights with nomoonlight, relative to nights with the brightest moonlight. In rural areas, the effect is17%. The effects are specific to roads without artificial lighting. A small increase inambient light has a large effect on pedestrian safety. The finding has policy implications
for road safety and the artificial lighting of roadways

Presentation 5
The Administrator and the Administered: Does Gender Matter for
Education?
Akshar SAXENA, Nanyang Technological University
Do female bureaucrats improve educational outcomes as compared to malebureaucrats? We study the enrollment of students into primary schools across thedistricts of India due to changes in district administrators or bureaucrats. Using
administrative data on student enrollment from 2005-2017 and employment history
and individual characteristics of bureaucrats, we estimate the effect of female
administrators on student enrollment. Our results show that the districts, where female
administrators are appointed, experience an average increase of 0.95% in enrollment inprimary schools. Heterogeneity analysis shows that enrollment increases for higher
grade classes, smaller and co-educational schools, schools located in rural areas and instates that perform relatively worse on women empowerment indicators, and only forfemale students. Results suggest that increased enrollment may be due to both
improvements in infrastructure and the role-model effect. Although welfare improving,increase in enrollment is accompanied with un-intended consequences of increase in
failure-rate of students at higher grades. The evidence demonstrates that individual
characteristics of bureaucrats has important implications for development andproviding equal opportunities for education for females.

Presentation 6
Maui Wildfire Exposure Study: Community Health, Wellbeing, andResilience
Ruben JUAREZ, University of Hawai i at M noa
The Maui Wildfire Exposure Study (MauiWES) is a comprehensive cohort study focusing
on the health and social impacts of the Maui wildfires, the worst natural disaster in thestate of Hawaii. Conducted by the University of Hawaii Economic Research
Organization and the John A. Burns School of Medicine, in collaboration withcommunity and health organizations, this study aims to address the effects ofenvironmental hazards and socioeconomic challenges on affected populations. We aim
to monitor health and social conditions through detailed questionnaires, healthassessments, and biospecimen collection.
Key findings include significant challenges in accessing medical care and insurance,with 46% reporting deteriorated health since the fires. Smoke, ash, and debris exposure
are linked to cardiovascular and respiratory issues, while mental health has worsened,with increased depression and anxiety rates. Only 34% of participants remain in theirpre-wildfire homes, with many facing employment and income reductions. Food
insecurity affects 47% of households. MauiWES highlights the critical role of community
organizations in disaster response and provides actionable recommendations:improving healthcare access, ensuring housing stability, addressing environmental
hazards, and strengthening community support networks.