IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Energy and Global Climate Change
Challenges in the ASEAN Countries andthe Significance of SETA in this Context
byTatchai Sumitra
Chairman, the Organizing Committee of SETA 2017
Presented at IEEJ, Tokyo, Japan on 9th August 2016

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Outlines
1. Energy Outlook for ASEAN countries.
2. Energy Outlook for Thailand.
3. Summary of SETA 2016.
4. SETA 2017 Prospectus.
5. Why SETA ?

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016• ASEAN Energy Characteristics• ASEAN Energy Resources• ASEAN Primary Energy Demand• GHG Emissions from ASEAN Countries• ASEAN Key Energy Challenges• ASEAN Countries’ Energy Policies• ASEAN Power Grid
• ASEAN Gas Pipelines

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Energy Characteristics
CountryMain Characteristics

1. Indonesia

238 millions population (largest in ASEAN), largest energyconsumer, world’s largest coal exporter, major LNG exporter.

2. Thailand

69.5 millions population, second largest energy consumer,
gas is dominant fuel in electricity, increasingly dependent onenergy import

3. Malaysia

28.9 millions population , third largest energy consumer,
world’s second largest LNG exporter.

4.Philippines

95.7 millions population, World’s 2nd largest geo-thermalproducer, dependent on energy import.

5.Vietnam

87.9 millions population, growing energy demand, increasingenergy import, introducing nuclear.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Energy Characteristics (cont’d)Country

Main Characteristics

6.Singapore

5.2 millions population, small size, most develo-ped ASEAN
economy, entirely dependent on energy import, refining
and petrochemical hub.

7.Myanmar

54 millions population, low level of energy access,accelerating economic development.

8.Brunei
Darussalam

0.4 millions population, significant oil and gas exporter, gas
is dominant in electricity.

9.Lao PDR

6.3 millions population, significant hydro and wind power,
exporter of electricity to neighbors.

10.Cambodia

15 millions population, low level of energy access, low percapita energy demand.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Energy ResourcesCountry

Oil BBlGas TCF

Coal
MMT

HydroMW

Geoth
MW

Wood
kTon

1.Indo.

10

169.5

38,00075,625

19,658439,049

2.Thai

0.156

12.2

1,2405,000

n.d.

67,1803.Malay.

3.42

84.4

1,024.5

25,000n.d.

137,301

4.Phil.

0.285

4.6

346

9,150

n.d.

89,267

5.Viet.

519.2

4,500

68,500n.d.

48,960IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Energy Resources (cont.d)
Country

Oil BBl

Gas TCF

Coal
MMT

Hydro
MWGeoth
MW

Wood
kTon

6.Sing.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

7.Brunei

6

34.8

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

8.Myanm. 3.1

12.1

n.d.

108,000n.d.

129,935

9.Lao

n.d.

3.6

600

26,500n.d.

46,006

10.Cambo n.d.

9.89

n.d.

10,000n.d.

81,565IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Country

2011

2020

2025

2035

2011-2035% increase

1.Indo.

196

252

282

358

2.5

2.Thai

118

151

168

206

2.3

3.Malay.

74

96

106

128

2.3

4.Phil.

40

58

69

92

3.5

5.The Rest

119

161

178

221

2.6

Total

549

718

804

1,004

2.5

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

GHG Emission from ASEAN
No.

Country

GHG emiss.( 1000 tons)

1Indonesia

433,989

2Thailand

295,262

3

Malaysia

216,804

4

Vietnam150,230

5Philippines

81,591

6Singapore13,520

7Myanmar

8,995

8Brunei Darussalam

9,1609

Lao

1,874

10

Cambodia

4,180

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Key Energy Challenges
2030
1.Primary Demand Growth Rate 2007-2030 to increase+2.5%

2.Fossil fuel to increase+76%

3.Coal to increase+24%

4.Oil to decrease-15%

5.Accessibility (now 160 Millions) to increase+63 Millions

6.Energy Investment (cumulative to 2030) to increase
Investment in Power Sector alone

1.1 Trillion USD
55%

7.Carbon Footprint (now 3.5%) to increase

5%

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Countries’ Energy Policies
Country

E.E.

R.E.

Climate Change

Nuclear

1.Indonesia

1% /y en. Inten.
Reduc. until 2030

23% by 2035, 31% 26% GHG emis.
by 2050
Reduc. by 2020,
41% with help

n.d.

2.Thailand

30%. En.Inten.
Reduc. by 2036

20% power gen.,
20% bio fuel fortransp. By 2036

20-25% GHG
emission Reduc. By
2036

2,000 MW by2036

3.Malaysia

Promote E.E. in
Indus.,Building,
Domestic

2,000 MW in
2020, 4,000 MW
in 2030

40% GHG reduc. By
2020

Feasibility

4.Phillippines

Energy saving eq.
to 15% final en.
Demand/yTriple cap. To 15
GW by 2030

n.d.

n.d.

5.Vietnam

Reduce energy
consumption
8-10% by 20206% by 2030

n.d.

n.d.

10.7 GW by2030

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Countries’ Energy Policies (cont.d)
Country

E.E.

R.E.

ClimateChangeNuclear

6.Singapore

35% en. Inten.
Reduc. 2030

n.d.

36% GHG
emis. Reduc.
2030

n.d.

7.Brunei

45% reduc. En.
Intensity 2035

10% electricity
gen. 2035

n.d.

n.d.

8.Myanmar

10% en. deman
reduc.

15-18% powergen. 2020

n.dn.d.

9.Lao

10% En. Cons.
Reduc.

30% share insuppl. 2025

n.d.

n.d.

10.Cambodia

20% en. Cons.
Reduc. 2035

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Power Grid
Existing and Planned Interconnection

Grid-to-Grid

1.Peninsular Malaysia-Singaporex

2.Thailand-Peninsular Malaysiax

Grid-to-Load

3.Thailand-Laox

4.Lao-Vietnamx

5.Thailand-Cambodiax

6.Thailand-Myanmarx

7.Peninsular Malaysia-Sumatra-Javax

8.Peninsular Malaysia-Sarawakx

9.Sarawak-Sabah-Brunei

X

10.Sarawak-Kalimantan

X

11.Sabah-Philippines

X

12.Vietnam-Cambodia

X

13.Lao Cambodiax

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ASEAN Gas Pipelines
Pipelines

Country-tocountry

1.Thailand-Myanmar

X

Country-toreserv.

2.Thailand-JDA

X

3.JDA-Malaysia

X

4.Singapore-Malaysia

X

5.Singapore-Sumatra

X

6.Malaysia-West Natuna

X

7.West Natuna-Singapore

X

8.Malaysia-CAA

X

9.CAA-Vietnamx

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016• The Challenges for Thailand’s Energy Future• Thailand Primary Energy Demand• Types of Primary Energy in 2036
• Final Energy Demand• Power Development Plan (PDP 2015)• Energy Efficiency Targets• Alternative Energy Targets

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

The Challenges for Thailand’sEnergy Future• Reliance on Imported Energy and Deficit Trade Balance(next 20 y imported oil and gas >90% of domesticconsumption)• Environmental Issues and Global Climate Change• Social Conflict on Energy Issues resulted from Lack ofTransparency and misled Understandings

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

The Challenges for Thailand’s
Energy Future (cont’d)• Continued Economic Growth and Investor’s Confidence• Risk from Economic Uncertainty and Energy Price

Fluctuation• High Cost of Living from Energy Expense

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Thailand Primary Energy DemandYear

DescriptionMtoe

2013

Total demand

1202036

Total Demand in Reference Case (conservativeApproach)

220

2036

Blueprint Scenario ( less dependency on importedenergy, minimize environmental impact, diminishfinancial cost)

170

NB. The Blueprint scenario recommends an equal share among the naturalgas, coal and renewables for electricity generation.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Type of Primary Energy in 2036
• Crude Oil:

~ 58 Mtoe (both scenario)• Natural Gas: ~ 97 Mtoe for Reference Scenario~ 55 Mtoe for Blueprint scenario• Solid (Coal): ~ 35 Mtoe (Ref.)~ 25 Mtoe (Blue)• Renewables (incl. hydro): ~ 30 Mtoe (Ref.)~ 32 Mtoe (Blue)IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Final Energy Demand
The final energy demand is shared almost equally among:• Industry Sector• Transport Sector• Business/Service Sector and Households

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Power Development Plan
3 Basic Principles:• Security: incl. fuel diversification to reduce risk
• Economy: incl. cost of production and tariff• Ecology: minimize impacts on the environment and theglobal climate change

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Fuel Diversification• Reduce the use of Natural Gas• Increase the use of Clean Coal
• Import more electricity• Increase the use of Renewable Energies• Nuclear Power may be introduced at the end

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Investment in Infrastructure• Invest in Transmission and Distribution lines to support

the AEC and GMS• Development of Smart Grid to optimize the integrationof Renewable Energies

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Other Principles• Reserve Margin: 15% of Peak Power Demand• Integrate with

 Energy Efficiency Plan Alternative Energies PlanIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Current Electricity Generation
by Fuel Types
Fuel TypePercentage （%）

MW

Natural Gas

6424,072

Coal (Lignite)

207,522

Renewable Energies

83,009

Imported/Hydro

72,633

Diesel/Fuel Oil

1376

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

PDP 2015
Fuel Type2014 (%)

2026 (%)

2036 (%)

Natural Gas

6440-50

30-40

Clean Coal (incl. Lignite)2020-25

20-25

Renewable Energy

810-20

15-20

Imported / Hydro

710-1515-20

Diesel/ Fuel Oil

1--

Nuclear--

0-5

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Summary of PDP 2015

Installed Capacity

MW

Existing Installed Capacity (2014)

37,612New Installed Capacity (2014-2036)
Retired Power Plants (2014-2036)

57,459-24,736

Total Installed Capacity (2036)

70,336IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Summary of New Installed Capacity
Plant Type

Number of Unit

Installed Capacity (MW)Natural Gas

64

17,478Gas Turbine

5

1,250

Clean Coal (incl. Lignite) 9

7,390

Renewable Energy-

12,105

Imported Hydro-

11,016

Cogeneration-

4,119

Pumped Storaged Hydro

-

2,101

Nuclear22,000IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Energy Efficiency Target (GWh)Residen.

1.ENCON Act (spec. consump.) -IndustryBusiness Gov.

Total

10,8145,654

3,180

19,648

2.BEC (Building Energy Code)--11,975

1,711

13,686

3.HEP & MEP (High and Min.
Performance Standards)

8,936

6,226

7,609

-

23,7604.Financial Incentives

-

9,133

5,941

-

15,074

5.LED (Promotion)

3,354

3,303

3,711

1,264

11,632

6.EERS (Energy Efficiency
Resource Standards)
Total

1,343

2,367

2,162-

5,872

13,63315%

31,84336%

37,052
41%

7,144
8%

89,672IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Alternative Energy Target (MW)Type2014

2036

Solar

1,298.5

6,000Wind

224.5

3,002

Hydro

2,906.4

2,906.4

Mini Hydro (<12 MW)

142376

MSW

65.7

500

Bio-gas

311.5

600

Bio-mass

2,541.8

5,570

Energy Crop-680

Total (MW)7,490.4

19,634.4

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016• SETA 2016 consisted of International Conference Exhibition• Over 5,300 participants• 41 countries represented• 12 Side Events• 97% of attendees rated the Event between good andexcellent

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

International Conference• Theme: Sustainable Energy and Technology Asia
• Speakers: 140• Delegates: 1225
• Conference Sub-topics: 4 tracks• Other Parallel Conferences: 12

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 1
Energy Policy and Planning• COP 21 was very much concerned• 5 main issues were raised Energy accessibility, energy affordability, energy security, energy
sustainability, energy efficiency
 Technologies are needed to effectively combat the Global
Climate Change Collaboration between countries are needed Diversification to include low-carbon sources are necessary Fossil fuels will be around for many years

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 2
Electrical System Technology• Grid-to-Grid connection• Smart grid and micro grid
• Energy storage systems• Clean coal technology• Nuclear PowerIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 3
Transportation and alternative fuels• Green Vehicles such as EV, HV, PHV, FCV• Alternative fuels• Hydrogen• Freights and Logistics

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 4
Sustainable Energy and Green Technology• Solar PV• Wind• Bio-mass and Bio-gas• Green urbanization• Low-carbon cities

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Fact of Statistics

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Highlights : Opening Ceremony

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Highlights : ConferenceIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Highlights : ExhibitionIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Highlights : VIP Networking

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Highlights : Side Events

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Sponsors

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Supporting Organizations

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016• Same format as SETA 2016: International Conference Exhibition• Topics subdivided into 4 tracks:• Sustainable Energy Policy and Planning• Low-Carbon Electricity Generation• Green Transport and Logistics• Smart City and Green Industry

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 1
Sustainable Energy Policy and Planning• Energy Planning at a Regional, National and Local Scale• Energy Pricing• Fiscal and Regulatory Policies at Supply• Existing and Emerging Energy Markets and Reforms• Alternative Energy Market and Policies

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 1 (cont’d)
Sustainable Energy Policy and Planning• Financing and Investments for Energy Supply• Energy Integration Plan, Experiences, Challenges andOpportunities• Regional Energy Supply Infrastructure• Regional Energy Integration• Energy Sustainability

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 2
Low-Carbon Electricity Generation• New Trend in Electric Power Systems (Generation,Transmission, Distribution)• Electricity Storage Systems• Smart Grids in Power Systems• Extended Generation of Electricity by Renewable Energyin AsiaIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 2 (cont’d)
Low-Carbon Electricity Generation• Bio-mass and Bio-gas as Alternative Fuels• Energy Efficiency and Management• Co-Generation• State of the Art in Clean Coal Technology• Nuclear Power in AsiaIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 3
Green Transport and Logistics• Novel Hybrid Vehicles• Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure• Novel Battery Development and Charging Systems• Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles• Green Transport

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 3 (cont’d)
Green Transport and Logistics• Fuel Pricing and Tax Incentives for Transportation• Bio-fuels for Transportation• Pipeline Transport and Regional Connectivity• Green Logistics• Floating LNG TerminalIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 4Smart City and Green Industry• Green City• Green Urbanization• Green Building and Infrastructure• BEMS and HEMS
• ESCO Approach to Smart City
• ICT Application in Smart CityIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Track 4 (cont’d)Smart City and Green Industry• Low-energy and Low-carbon City
• Digital Utilities• Smart Grid for Smart City

• Renewable Energy Integration in Urban Area
• Smart Waste Management• Green Industry

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016• Asia is one of the World’s big centers for manufacturing

thus consuming a lot of energy• Current energy uses lead to GHG emissions• Need to mitigate the Global Climate Change following
the Paris Agreement (COP21)• Not enough technologies available at a reasonable priceto attain sustainability• No platform to discuss freely the burning issues

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

A Unique Platform for Asia
• A unique non-governmental platform in Asia
• A Flexible platform that can change the topics according

to interests• Strongest support by policy makers in Asia
• Biggest participation from ASEAN economies• Combine important issues of energy in a single event:policy, electricity generation, transport and sustainableenergy development

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Some critical issues towards sustainability• SETA2016 showed the willingness of Asian economies toreduce GHG emissions• To attain a sustainable development in Asia moreinnovative technologies should be used
• A need for effective technologies for Asia to mitigate theGlobal Climate Change• A need for cooperation and connectivity amongeconomies in AsiaIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Towards a Low-carbon Society• SETA2017 responds to this need by focusing on the way

towards a Low–carbon Society• Balanced topics:
 Sustainable Energy Policy and Planning Low-carbon Electricity Generation
 Green Transport and Green logistics
 Smart City and Green Industry

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp