Pathways to Deep Decarbonization inSouth Korea :Energy Technology Perspectives

Yongsung Cho
Korea University
Korean DDPP WorkshopObjective• This study has been undertaken as a part of theSDSN’s international collaborative project tobackcast national decarbonization trajectories ortechnological pathways and explores deep
decarbonization pathways for the Korea.
• This study adopts the global energy-related
carbon emissions of 1.6 ton per capita for 2050
as the goal.
2

Prospect of Economic & Social Developments
IndicatorUnit

2010

2050

Population

Million person

4948GDP$Billion (in 2005 prices)

1,0152,754

GDP per capita

US$/person (in 2005 prices)

20,53857,234

Industrial value added

US$Billion (in 2005 prices)

437

1,170

Residential floor area

Million square meters

1,173

1,017

Commercial floor area

Million square meters

694

1,510

Passenger transport

Billion kilometers traveled

485

451

Freight transport

Billion ton-kilometers

0.8

1.2
3

Mission & Target• How to get “an 86.3% reduction of CO2
emission from fuel combustion, falling from556 MtCO2 in 2010 to 76 MtCO2 in 2050.”– Key words: backcast, technology, economic growth4Solutions : 3 pillar• Energy efficiency

Energy intensity of GDP(MJ/$)
2010

7.62050• Fuel switching

1.90.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

– switching of final energy to decarbonized electricity• Low-carbon electricity or decarbonization ofelectricity

Electrification of final
energy uses (%)

Emissions intensity ofelectricity (gCO2/kWh)2010

5002050

290.0

2010

20%

2050

100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0

66%
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

5

Deployment Feasibility by Energy Technology:

Assumptions (1)• LED replacing all the existing lighting  save energy by72%.

• Improvement of the energy efficiency in heating &cooling in buildings  save energy by 58.4%• Improvement in the efficiency of fossil fuel cars &buses each by 17% and 23% can be achieved by 2050.
• Blend biodiesel may be used in all diesel vehicles.
6

Deployment Feasibility by Energy Technology:Assumptions (2)• Solar PV should be installed along public transportroutes.
– Its installation standard is 0.163 GW/km2.
– Up to 40% of the total transport road area, about 3,000 km2, canaccommodate 193 GW of solar PV.

• CCS can capture 90% of carbon emission.
– The limiting factor for deployment of CCS is the domestic
storage capacity.
– The estimate of the storage potential is about 15 MtCO.
7

Emission Pathway by Sector
600(unit : MtCO2)

500

400

300

200

1000
2010

2015
Residential

•
•

2020
Commercial

2025

2030

Passenger transport

2035

2040

Freight transport

Industrial

2045

2050

PowerThe electricity generation sector achieves emission reduction of 88% by 2050
relative to 2010.
Industry achieves emission reduction of 87% during the same period.

8Electricity Generation Sector

Three Scenarios of Power Sector• High CCS and Low Renewable Scenario( Conservative Pathway)• High Renewable and Low Nuclear Scenario( Green Growth Pathway)• High Nuclear and Low CCS Scenario( Controversial Pathway)
101. High CCS and Low Renewable Scenario(Conservative Pathway)• Electricity generation increases by more than two times from 477
TWh in 2010 to 994 TWh in 2050 while final energy consumption
decreases by 33.6%.
• The share of electricity consumption in final energy consumption
increases from 20% in 2010 to 66% in 2050.
• Deep decarbonization of the power sector requires reduction ofemissions from 238.4 MtCO₂in 2010 to 29.7 MtCO₂in 2050.
– emission intensity from 549 gCO2/kWh to 31.3 gCO2/kWh• While the potential for CCS may be high, its contribution remains
limited until 2020 because of its currently low level of development
but its role becomes pronounced beyond 2020.
• Emissions from the power sector increase up to 2020 and declines
sharply beyond 2020.
11

Emission Pathway of the Electricity
Generation Sector
MtCO2300

250

245.6

238.4

232.4

232.4

200

206.5
156.2

150

116.1

100

71.1
50

29.702010

2015

2020

2025

20302035

2040

2045

2050

12

• The coal-fired power generation disappears by 2050 and LNG
remains the only fossil fuel used for thermal power generation.
• 93% of the LNG-fired power generation (and 38% of the totalpower generated) is equipped with CCS.
• Renewable energy such as solar and wind accounts for 30% oftotal power generation and nuclear power 30%.
• The share of nuclear power in 2050 remains 32%.
• Nuclear power generation increases more than two times overthe period in absolute magnitude from 17.5 GW to 36.1 GW.
13

Electricity Generation by Energy Source
under the Scenario 1TWhgCO2/kWh

1,000549

500

900
800

400

700

Coal w/o CCS
Oil w/o CCS
Oil w/ CCS
Natural gas w/o CCS
Natural gas w/ CCS
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Other
Carbon intensity of electricity (gCO2/kWh)

600

500
400
300
200
100

300

200

100

31.3002010

2020

2030

2040

2050

14

2. High Renewable and Low Nuclear Scenario(Green Growth Pathway)• This is a denuclearization pathway with a maximal
deployment of renewable energy in electricity generation.
• In 2050, renewable energy accounts for 65% of electricity,including solar and wind power each accounting for 37%pand 19%p.
• Biomass also plays some role, supplying 0.4% of electricity.
• Nuclear power accounts for only 10% of electricity.
• The balance is met mostly by fossil fuels, that is, LNG,
which accounts for 30% of electricity, including 20%p withCCS.
• Nuclear power capacity begins to be reduced in 2025 and to12GW by 2050.
15

Emissions from Electricity under the High
Renewable Scenario
MtCO2300

250200150

10050020102015

2020

2025

2030

20352040

2045

2050

16

• In this high renewable scenario for electricity generation,
the intermittency problem presents a major challenge.
• Improved smart grid and electricity storage technologies
will have to be deployed at scale in order to cope with theintermittency of the renewables.

• But huge installations of 228 GW solar and 71 GW windplants will be met by difficulties with appropriation of thenecessary sites and public concerns with possible local
environmental problems.

17Electricity Generation by Energy Source andEmission Coefficient
TWhgCO2/kWh

1,000

500

500900Coal w/o CCS
800

Oil w/o CCS

400

Natural gas w/o CCS

700

Natural gas w/ CCS
600

300

Nuclear

500

HydroWind

400200Solar
300

Biomass
Other

200

100

Carbon intensity of electricity (gCO2/kWh)10029002010

2020

2030

2040

2050

183. High Nuclear and Low CCS Scenario(Controversial Pathway)• Share of nuclear power increases from 31% of electricity in2010 to 43% in 2050 while due to the highly uncertain
availability of the storage space for captured carbon, thecombined share of coal and LNG has been decreased to 8%of electricity, with those fossil fuels accompanied by CCS
accounting for only 2.5%p.
• The resulting balance has been met with expansion ofnuclear power to 52GW in terms of capacity.
• This will be a politically highly controversial pathway due
to an increasing public concern with the safety of nuclear
power generation.
19

Emission Pathway from Electricity underthe High Nuclear Scenario
MtCO2300

250

200

150

100

500
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

20

Electricity Generation and Emission Coefficientunder the High Nuclear Scenario
TWhgCO2/kWh

1,000

500

500

900
800

400

700600300

500
400

200

300
200

100

10028002010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Coal w/o CCS

Oil w/o CCS

Natural gas w/o CCS

Natural gas w/ CCS

NuclearHydroWindSolar

Biomass

OtherCarbon intensity of electricity (gCO2/kWh)21

CO2 Emission Pathway by Scenarios
MtCO2300

250

200

150

CCS

100

Renewable

50

Nuclear

02010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

22

Coal-fired Power Generation Pathway

LNG-fired Power Generation Pathway

TWh
250.0TWh
300

CCS

200.0

250

NuclearRenewable

200150.0

150

100.0

10050.0

500.002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Renewable-fired Electricity Generation Pathway

Nuclear Electricity Generation Pathway
TWh800.0

TWh500CCS

Renewable

Nuclear
400

600.0

300
400.0
200
200.0

100

CCS

Renewable

Nuclear00.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

23

Comparison of Three Scenarios for Deep
Decarbonization of Electricity in terms of the Fuel Mix
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
CCS
2010

Renewable

Nuclear

CCS2020

Renewable

Nuclear

CCS

2030

Renewable

Nuclear

2050

Coal

Coal w/ CCS

Fuel Oil

Fuel Oil w/CCS

Natural gas

Natural gas w/ CCS

NuclearHydropower

Wind-Onshore

Wind-Offshore

Solar PV

Solar thermal

Biomass

Geothermal

24
Other renewables

Potential issue & topics
1. Co-benefits (air quality, etc.)
2. DD and urbanization
3. DD and emissions-intensive materials & heavy industry& exporting economies
4. Global support for national policies: R&D cooperation,
carbon pricing rules, emissions trading
5. Necessary modelling methodological advances
6. Uncertainty and dynamic pathway adjustment