IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

The future of energy in Southeast Asia
上級エネルギー分析官

松村 亘

IEEJ エネルギーセミナー, 2019年10月28日（於： 日本エネルギー経済研究所）

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はじめに － エネルギー選択は不確実性の時代へ• 再生可能エネルギー、電動車への期待感が、国際的に大きく上昇• とりわけ太陽光、風力は産業分野として確立しつつあり、補助金なしでも国際的に導入が進む• これを追い風に野心的な政府目標や、新技術の躍進を伝えるニュースが日々世界を巡るが、そのうちの何れが実現し、全体として何処へ向かっているのか？
- 現実には、パリ協定に参加する各国とも諸目標を高く掲げる一方、足元政策による裏打ちは不十分- 市場では新技術、新ビジネスへの挑戦と失敗、漸進と停滞が混じり合う
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World Energy Outlook の役割• 近年の状況からは、むしろ「長期見通しは不確実」、が持つべき基本認識• 不確実な時代ほど、情報と分析力が必要• World Energy Outlook (WEO)は将来を予測するための貴重なデータブック- 今までの見方が正しいのか、国際エネルギーの最新動向に照らして確認- 注目される革新的ニュースは、全体視点から真贋を見極め• ただし、World Energy Outlook は将来像を“予測（forecast）”しない• 今日の政策、技術の動向を前提に組み上げた、一シナリオに過ぎない。そして
現在は、その“前提”が日々揺れ動く転換期（不確実性の時代）
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東南アジア（ASEAN) 特集の位置づけ• 東南アジアの理解は、世界動向の理解に直結（新興国の課題は共通）- 巨大な人口を背景にエネルギー需要が急増、しかしインフラは未成熟であり、投資資金は常に不足- 石油・ガス輸入量の膨張はエネルギー安全保障、貿易収支上の懸念点- 安定供給のため低コストなエネルギー源（化石燃料）に依存するが、他方でＣＯ２排出、大気汚染などの環境問題が顕在化- コスト低下が著しい再生可能エネルギーの位置付け見直しが進む- エネルギー安全保障の文脈で、電動車をどう捉えるか？
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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

世界の風力発電の年間導入量※WEO2019（本年版）暫定データを使用※毎年の見通しデータは非公開のため、2019-2025、2026-2030期間は平均値を表示している。

GW

GW

Historical

120

Projection

100
8050GW程度

6040EUASEAN
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Japan
Others

US

7

China

India

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

02005

20

IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

１．東南アジアのエネルギー需給動向 ２０００－２０４０
ASEAN’s energy landscape, 2000 - 2040

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Southeast Asia is an emerging heavyweight in global energy
Increase in energy demand from 2018 to 2040 by region
Mtoe 1 000

800600400
2000Latin America

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Africa

China

India

Based on today’s policy settings, the pace of energy demand growth in Southeast Asia to 2040 isdouble the global average, spurred by rising incomes, industrialisation and a rising urban population
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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

Economics and demographics are driving energy consumption
Growth in final energy consumption by sector and by fuel type in Southeast Asia

2018-2040
2000-2018
Buildings

Sectors

Transportation

Industry

Coal

OilGasElectricity

Bioenergy

Fuel types

Oil for transport has led end energy use past 2 decades. Next two decades embraces continued growthof oil, but also rapid electrification of energy consumption, as well as switch-to-gas in Industrial sector.
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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

The region mobilises all fuels to meet rising demandPrimary energy demand in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario
Share

Primary energy demand
Mtoe

1 200

100%

900

75%

600

50%

300

25%

02010

2018

Fossil fuels
Coal
Oil

2030

0%

2040

2010

2018

useuseof solid
biomass
GasNuclear
Nuclear Traditional
Traditionalof solid
biomass

2030

2040

Other
Otherrenewables
renewables

The region’s longstanding reliance on oil, coal and natural gas is diluted only slightly by increased
deployment of modern renewable technologies over the coming decades
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Rising fossil-fuel needs are increasingly met by imports from outside the region, withexception of coal
Change in fossil fuel supply and demand in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario

CoalGasOil

2000 2018 2030 2040

2000 2018 2030 2040

2000 2018 2030 2040

Mtoe 400

300
200
1000

Coal production

Gas production

Oil production

Coal demandGas demand

Oil demand

Note: Mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent.

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Billion dollars (2018)

Today’s policy settings push energy imports deep into the red
100
Oil

0

Coal
Gas-100-200-300

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Southeast Asia faces an energy import bill of over $300 billion/year by 2040, largely due to soaring oil
imports; the region would also become a net importer of LNG by the late 2020s
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２．東南アジアにおけるエネルギー転換の機会
ASEAN’s opportunities for energy transitions

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Efficiency improvements constrain the rise in final energy consumptionMtoeFinal energy consumption and energy savings by sector in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario

800Agriculture
Transport (other)
Transport (road)
Buildings (residential)
Buildings (commercial)
Industry

600
400
200
0- 200

Avoided demand byefficiency savings
2018

2025

2030

2035

Note: Mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent.

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162040IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

More efficient air conditioners are not always more expensive or necessarily imported

Results of IEA air conditioning market analysis in selected Southeast Asian countries
Least efficientEfficiency level (W/W)

3.08(proposed ASEAN 2020
MEPS level)

Most efficient
3.7

4.3

5

5.6

Singapore

Availability of ACs
by efficiency level

Thailand
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Philippines
Singapore

Affordability of ACs
by efficiency level

Thailand
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Philippines
Singapore

Locally manufactured ACs
by efficiency level

Thailand
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Philippines
Widely available (>40% sample)
Available, but not widely (<40% sample)

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Not available
No information

6.2

IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

Fuel efficiency improves and electricity starts to gain ground for two/three- wheelers

Stock and fuel economy of road vehicles in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario

8150

6100502018

2025

Gasoline/diesel

2030

2035

2040

Electric

10200

8150

64100

4250

200

CNG

Note: CNG = compressed natural gas; km = kilometres.

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million units

2000250

182018

2025

2030

2035

2040

Road stock fuel economy (right axis)

0litres/100 km

Two/three wheelers
10litres/100 km

million units

Passenger light duty vehicles
250

IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

Falling costs are expanding opportunities for renewable electricity

Levelised cost of electricity in selected regions and countries, 2013-18
US cents/kWh(2018)35

Solar PV

3025Windonshore20Windoffshore

1510502013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018
SoutheastAsia

ChinaIndia

United States

Note: MWh = megawatt-hour. Economic life time of solar PV and wind is assumed to be 25 years.

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Power integration efforts in Southeast Asia promote sharing rich renewable energy resourcesand optimise electricity flows in its grid system
Southeast Asia power grid plans
Existing interconnections lines
Planned interconnections lines

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Expanded cross-border trade reduces curtailment of generation from wind and solar PV

Annual power flows from east to central region (left) and curtailment of variable renewable output (right)
by case in 2035 based on the Sustainable Development Scenario

Power flows
TWhCurtailment

150

30%

120

24%

90

18%

60

12%

30

6%

0BT

OT0%

OT+

BTOT

OT+Notes: BT = bilateral trade; OT = optimised trade; OT+ = optimised and expanded trade; VRE = variable renewable energy. See Annex for modeling methodology.

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エネルギー転換の「将来」

「機会」

公表政策
新政策
「現実」
シナリオ
「将来」
各国の政策・目標＋履行・実施能力

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３．持続可能開発シナリオに向けて
Sustainable Development Scenario

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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

There is no simple solution to Southeast Asia’s rising emissions

Mt CO2CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies
2 500
Efficiency
Stated Policies Scenario

2 000Renewables
Fuel switching
CCUS

1 500

Activity

Sustainable Development Scenario
1 0005002010

20182030

2040

Southeast Asia is on track to achieve full electrification in the early 2030s, but reversing the rising trend for air
pollutant and CO2 emissions would require a major acceleration in energy transitions across all sectors
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Fossil fuel use needs to fall significantly
400

Decline of fossil-fuel demand by sector inMtoe

Mtoe

Fossil-fuel demand in SPS and SDS, 2010-2040

300

Oil

500-50200-100

Gas-150
1000

Coal

2010-200-250

2020
2030
2040
Sustainable Development Scenario
Stated Policies Scenario

PowerIndustry

CoalOilGasTransport
Buildings and agriculture

Achieving clean transition objectives will require a decrease in coal use of 80% and a decrease in oil useof 30% vis-à-vis the current energy demand trajectory
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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

Solar and hydrogen lead the way in the new power mix
Installed power capacity by technology in Southeast Asia in the Sustainable Development Scenario
GW250Historical

Projections

Solar PV

200
HydroGas
Wind

150
100

Coal500
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Geothermal
Bioenergy
OilBattery storage

Three-quarters of power supply is renewable by 2040, requiring supportive policy frameworks andintensive efforts to integrate renewables, including through power trade
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IEEJ：2019年10月掲載 禁無断転載

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