IEEJ：June 2019 © IEEJ2019

The Global EV Outlook 2019
Dr. Timur Gül, Head Energy Technology Policy Division, IEA
IEEJ, Tokyo, 13 June

IEA

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The Clean Energy Ministerial Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
Members(2018-19)(Co-lead)(Co-lead)

Coordinator

Activities
Analytical publications

Commitments

Collaborative projects•• Global EV Pilot City Programme

EV30@30 Campaign (2017)• Paris Declaration on ElectroMobility and Climate Change(COP 21)• Government Fleet Declaration(COP 22)• € 4 million global electric mobility
project for emerging economies(with UNEP and the GEF)2IEEJ：June 2019 © IEEJ2019

Policy momentum keeps increasing in key markets

••

•

•

CO2 emissions•• FAME II approved,
standard for LDVs toproviding incentives
2030 (incl. EV credits)for public and shared
Proposed passenger
three-wheelers, LDVs •car fleet average fuel • CO2 emissions
and buses, private
standard for trucks toeconomy of 4L/100 km
two-wheelers and2025-2030
by 2025
chargers• Clean Vehicles•Vehicle Subsidy
Directive mandates, • CO2 emissions
Program: higher
public procurement
standard for LDVs intechnical performancefor clean LDVs, trucks
2022
requirementsand buses•
New Energy Vehicle• Increasing number of member states(NEV) credits mandate
announcing ICE and diesel bans
• European Battery Alliance promotes thedevelopment of a local battery industry• Incentive schemes for of zero- and lowemission vehicles in member countries
Voluntary standard for •BEV fuel economy

3•
New fuel economy
standard for trucks andbuses to 2025
Extension of of fueleconomy standard for•LDVs to 2030
80% reduction of GHG
emissions for vehicles •produced by JapaneseOEMs in 2050
EV sales targets inPLDVs for 2020 and2030

Proposal from federal
government to freeze
GHG emissions
standards for new LDVs
from 2022 to 2025
20 states willing to stick
to previous targets
California EV targets
more ambitious: 5
million EVs by 2030

Black: policies implemented or updated in 2018
Grey: policies implemented prior to 2018

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A broad portfolio of supporting policies

Regulations (vehicles)
Incentives (vehicles)

EuropeanUnion

CanadaChina

ZEV mandate✓✓

Fuel economystandards✓✓✓✓Fiscal incentives✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓

Targets (vehicles)

India

Subsidy✓✓

Regulations(chargers)

Hardwarestandards
Building
regulations✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓

Incentives (chargers)

Fiscal incentives✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓ Implemented at national/international level✓ Implemented at local/state level

Policies have been a major driver of electric mobility deployment,
triggering industry ambition and supporting costs reductions.
4UnitedStates✓

Industrial policies

Targets (chargers)

JapanIEEJ：June 2019 © IEEJ2019

There is a broader offer of EV models becoming available

China

European Union

China

United States

European Union

United States

Expected additions

Models up to 2018

Announced electric models are more equally distributed among segments than currently.
Plug-in hybrids are unlikely to be available for the small vehicle segment.
5SUV

Large car

CrossoverMedium car

Small car

SUV

Large car

CrossoverMedium car

Small car

SUV

Large car

CrossoverMedium car

0
SUV

0

Large car10
Crossover10
Medium car

20

Small car

20

SUV30

Large car30

Crossover40

Medium car

40

Small car

50

SUV50

Large car60

Crossover60

Medium car

70

PHEV models

Small car

8070Small car

Number of models

80

BEV models

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The number of electric cars on the road continues to growElectric car stock in 2018: 5.1 million

3%
Netherlands
3%
United Kingdom
4%
Norway5%Japan
5%OthersJapanUSA

China
45%
United States
22%

Million electric cars

OthersGermany 10%
France 3%

Electric car outlook
220

EV30@30
Scenario

200
180
160
140120India

100

Europe

80

China

60

New Policies
Scenario

40
2002018

2020

2025

2030

Source: Global EV Outlook 2019, https://www.iea.org/gevo2019/

The global electric car stock reached 5 million in 2018 and is projected to exceed 115 million
by 2030 under existing policies; in the EV30@30 Scenario, it exceeds 210 million.
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Million electric LDVs

OEM targets for electric cars – a real-life check of projections
300
250
200
150
100
500
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Range of OEMs declarations (estimate)

2025

2026

New Policies Scenario

2027

2028

2029

EV30@30 Scenario

OEM targets suggest that more ambitious policy targets are achievable.
72030

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Achieving the new European Union fuel economy targets
PLDV sales share in the European Union to meet 2030 fuel economy targets
100%Powertrain shares

80%60%
Other

40%

Battery-EVs
Plug-in hybrids
Hybrid vehicles

20%0%

Gasoline ICE vehicles
Diesel ICE vehicles
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Increasing of electrified vehicles are needed to comply with the European fuel economy standards in2030.
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Global battery capacity from EVs is expanding
3.0

Battery capacity additions (TWh/year), 2030

Battery capacity additions (TWh/year), 2030

Growth in vehicle battery capacity by scenario

2.5
2.01.51.0
0.50.0
2018

2020

2025

2030

32.5
22/3 Wheelers

1.5Trucks
1BusesLDVs-PHEV

0.5

LDVs-BEV

0NPS

EV30@30

New Policies Scenario
EV30@30 Scenario

Battery capacity from electric vehicles is set to rise; cars are the main driver.
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Challenges and opportunities from EVs for the power sector

TWhWorld power demand from EVs
1200• EVs plugged to the power network can act as
storage units: demand-side response, smart
charging

1000
800
600

• EVs can become assets for power system
flexibility and help integrate renewables

40020002018

Two/three-wheelers

NPS
2030
LDVEV30@30
2030
BusTruck

Electricity demand from electric vehicles is set to rise, offering a potential
new source of flexibility.
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Reducing well-to-wheel GHG emissions through electrification
GHG emissions from:

Mt CO₂-eq

400

2000

GHG emissions savings from:

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

2018

2030 NPS

2030 EV30@30

Electric vehicles reduce GHG emissions on a well-to-wheel basis through 2030; the impact is larger if
electricity generation decarbonises more quickly.
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The energy and environmental performance of EVs• Electric vehicles consume much less energy at the point of use than ICE vehicles• By 2030, electric vehicles are set to displace at least 5 times more diesel and gasoline
than in 2018
• Electric vehicles reduce world well-to-wheel CO2 emissions by 220 Mt CO2 in 2030 in theNew Policies Scenario, and 540 Mt CO2 in the EV30@30 Scenario• Electric vehicles abate pollutant emissions in high exposure areas (urban environments)
as they have no tailpipe emissions

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Assessing electric cars on a lifecycle basis
Life-cycle GHG emissions for passenger cars by powertrain, 2018
Variability relative
to vehicle sizet CO2-eq
45

Effect of larger
battery (+ 200 km)
Tank-to-wheel fuel
cycle

40
35

Well-to-tank fuelcycle

30
25

Vehicle cycle batteries (200 km)

20
15
10
50ICE

HEV

PHEV

BEV

FCEV

Vehicle cycle assembly, disposal
and recycling
Vehicle cycle components andfluids

With the global average GHG intensity of electricity generation, EVs, FCEVs and HEVs have similar performance.
If electricity generation decarbonises, GHG emissions of BEVs and PHEVs can decline significantly.
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Electric mobility increases demand for new materials
Increased annual demand for materials for batteries from deployment of electric vehicles by scenario, 2018-30
CobaltMetal Demand (kt)

600
500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0NPS
2018

Lithium600

EV30@30
2030

0NPS
2018

Manganese

2 500
2 000

2 000

1 500

1 500

1 000

1 000500

50000

EV30@30
2030

NPS2018

Nickel class I

2 500

EV30@30
2030

NPS2018

EV30@302030

Note: The battery chemistry mix considered for 2030 in this analysis is composed of 10% of NCA, 40% of NMC 622 and 50% of NMC 811

Demand for cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel rises significantly to 2030.
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Ensuring the stability of governmental revenues from transport taxation
Taxes and charges relative to revenue stability, management of external costs and ease of implementation

Long-runrevenuestability

Internalising
GHG emission
costsInternalising air
pollution costs

Recovering
infrastructure
costs

Ease ofimplementation

Vehicle taxGoodLimitedLimited

LimitedGood

Fuel (carbon) tax

Limited

Good

LimitedLimited

Good

Distance-basedcharges

Good

Limited

GoodGood

LimitedSource: OECD

There are multiple options to stabilise government revenues from transport taxation; care is required toensure social acceptability.
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Conclusions• Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace, driven by policy ambition;industry is following suit, indicating a bright outlook for electric vehicles• Policies evolve, starting with deployment targets & technical standards, tofiscal & regulatory measures, and support to charging infrastructure• Electric cars are efficient & save energy; the cleaner the power mix, the greater
the GHG emissions savings over the life-cycle• Electrification brings new challenges that need anticipation, such as increases
in electricity & raw material demand and a decline in tax revenues• The IEA supports governments & industry with data & analysis on the future ofclean energy technologies, including on EVs

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