Definitions, sources and methods for Uppsala Conflict
Data Program Battle-Death estimates

Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)

Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

This document clarifies the definitions and methods used in the compilation of data on
armed conflicts, and provide explanations concerning the treatment of the sources
consulted. The document focuses specifically on the coding of estimates for battle-related
deaths, published since 2005 in the Human Security Report (Oxford: Oxford University
Press). Funding for the UCDP Battle-Death Dataset was provided by the Human Security
Centre at the University of British Columbia.

The UCDP Armed Conflict Battle-Deaths Dataset
The definition of conflict inclusion in this dataset follows the UCDP definition of armedconflict. Variables 1-8, and 12-17 in this dataset are extracted directly from the UCDPPRIO Dataset: more information about the definitions and coding rules is available in theUCDP-PRIO Dataset Codebook (version 3)1
http://www.prio.no/cwp/armedconflict/current/Codebook_v3-2005.pdf
The major difference between the Battle-Deaths Dataset and the UCDP-PRIO Conflict
Dataset is the level of analysis. The UCDP-PRIO list focuses on the conflict level,
meaning that several actors can share an incompatibility and thus each conflict can consistof several dyads. The Battle-Deaths Dataset is focusing on the dyadic level, as the battle
deaths for each unique pairing of opposing actors is reported as far as possible. As aconsequence, some UCDP-PRIO variables have been removed as they focus on conflictlevel. Table 1 below summarizes the variables of the UCDP Armed Conflict Battle-Deaths
Dataset. The definition of armed conflict follows, as well as the coding notes for variables
9-11, and 18.

1

For more information about the UCDP-PRIO Dataset, see Gleditsch et al. (2002)

Table 1

2No
12

VariableID
SubIDLabel
Conflict identifier
Sub-conflict identifier

3Location

Country name(s)4Side_ACountry name(s)5Side_BCountry name(s) orOpposition actors

6
7

Incompatibility
Territory

Conflict incompatibility
Name of territory

89Year
Bdead BestYear of observation
Estimate of deaths

10

Bdead Low

Estimate of deaths

11

Bdead High

Estimate of deaths

12

Intensity

Intensity level

13

Type

Conflict type

14

COW_A2COW numbers of Side A

15

COW_B

COW numbers of Side B

16

COW_location

17Region

COW numbers ofLocation
Region of Location

18Version

Version number

COW: Correlates of War project.

Description
The unique identifier of all conflicts
Identifying sub-conflicts within adefined conflict
The name(s) of the country/countries
whose government(s) have a primary
claim to the object in dispute.
Identifying the country/countries of side
A in a conflict. Always the governmentside in civil wars
Identifying the name and/or
country/countries of side B in a conflict.
In a civil conflict, this includes militaryopposition organizations.
A general coding of the conflict issue
The name of the territory over which
the conflict is fought, provided that theincompatibility is territorial
UCDP Best estimate of battle-related
deaths in fighting between the parties
UCDP Low estimate of battle-related
deaths in fighting between the parties
UCDP High estimate of battle-related
deaths in fighting between the parties
Conflict intensity in conflict based on
the yearly observation and conflicthistory (Minor armed conflict,intermediate armed conflict, war)
Four different types of conflict(interstate, extrastate, internal,internationalized internal)
COW numbers of all countries in SideA, separated by semicolons
COW numbers of all countries in SideB, separated by semicolons
COW numbers of all location countries,
separated by semicolons
See Section 3.19 for the definition ofthe different regions.
The current version of the UCDP
Battle-related Death Dataset.

Definition of Armed Conflict
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) defines an armed conflict as a contested
incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory over which the use of armed force
between the military forces of two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state,
has resulted in at least 25 battle-related deaths each year.
The separate elements of this definition are defined as follows.
(a) Incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory. The incompatibility must
concern government and/or territory and it refers to the stated generally incompatible
positions of the parties. An incompatibility that concerns government refers to the typeof political system, the replacement of the central government or the change of thecomposition of the current government. An incompatibility that concerns territoryrefers to the status of a territory, for example, the change of the state in control of acertain territory (interstate conflict), secession or autonomy (intrastate conflict).
(b) Use of armed force. This refers to the use of arms by the military forces of the parties
in order to promote the parties’ general position in the conflict, resulting in at least 25
deaths in a year. Arms are defined as any material means of combat, for example,
manufactured weapons as well as sticks, stones, fire, water, and so on.
(c) Party. This refers to the government of a state or an opposition organization oralliance of opposition organizations. The government of a state is that party which isgenerally regarded as being in central control, even by those organizations seeking totake over power. If this criterion is not applicable, the government is the party
controlling the capital of the state. In most cases where there is a government, the two
criteria coincide. An opposition organization is any non-governmental group which
has announced a name for the group and its political goals and has used armed force toachieve them.
(d) State. A state is an internationally recognized sovereign government controlling a
specified territory or an internationally non-recognized government controlling a
specific territory which is not disputed by an internationally recognized sovereign
government, which previously controlled the same territory.

Definition of Battle-Related Deaths
Battle-related deaths refer to those deaths caused by the warring parties that can bedirectly related to combat over the contested incompatibility.5 This includes traditional
battlefield fighting, guerrilla activities (e.g. hit-and-run attacks/ambushes) and all kinds ofbombardments of military bases, cities and villages etc. Urban warfare (bombs, explosions,and assassinations) does not resemble what happens on a battlefield, but such deaths are
considered to be battle-related. The target for the attacks is either the military forces or
5Battle-related deaths, which concern direct deaths, are not the same as war-related deaths, which includes both
direct as well as indirect deaths due to disease and starvation, criminality, or attacks deliberately directed against
civilians only (one-sided violence).

representatives for the parties, though there is often substantial collateral damage in the formof civilians being killed in the crossfire, indiscriminate bombings, etc. All fatalities – military
as well as civilian – incurred in such situations are counted as battle-related deaths.

Sources
The data presented by UCDP is based on information taken from a selection of publicly
available sources, printed as well as electronic. The sources include news agencies,
journals, research reports, and documents of international and multinational organizations
and NGOs. This includes documents of the warring parties (governments and oppositionorganizations) when such sources are available, since they serve as a crucial complement
when identifying statements about the parties’ incompatible positions. Global, regionaland country-specific sources are used for all countries.
Both the independence and the transparency of the sources are deemed crucial. Eachsource is judged according to the context in which it is published, that is, according to thepotential interests of the source in misrepresenting political or violent events. Since mostsources are secondary sources, UCDP attempts to trace reports back to the primary sourcein order to decide whether they are reliable. In cases of biased sources or in situations
where there is unreliable information, the events are normally only included in the highestimate.
Little information on the exact number of deaths in conflict is usually available, and media
coverage varies considerably from country to country. It is important to emphasize thatthe fatality estimates given by UCDP is based on publicly accessible sources. Due to thelack of available information, it is possible that there are more fatalities than the UCDP
high estimate, but it is very unlikely that there is fewer than the UCDP best estimate. One
important caveat is that the precision of the numbers belies the uncertainty of theestimates; while UCDP estimates are based on aggregated totals of all incidents recordedin our sources, we acknowledge that numerous events is not reported in the media. Figures
are revised retroactively each year as new information becomes available.
In addition to deciding the level of reliability of available sources, the project strives toidentify the existence of censorship. Thus, other sources than regular news sources must
be used to establish what is occurring in a country. Documents and reports issued byinternational and multinational organizations and NGOs are consulted for this purpose.

Methods
The data on armed conflicts are compiled by calendar year. They include data on conflict
location, type of incompatibility, year the incompatibility was formed, year the warring
party began its use of armed force, warring parties, secondary support, negotiations, andbattle-related deaths during the year.
The data on battle-related deaths constitute the largest part of the data collection. The
Factiva news database (previously known as the Reuters Business Briefing)8 is
8Factiva is a news and information service database which contains over 8,000 sources.

indispensable for the collection of general news reports. To extract the relevant articles
from Factiva, the project uses an automated events data search using VRA® technology.9
This software makes it possible to retrieve all reports which contain information about
individuals killed or injured. Each news report is then read by UCDP staff, and every
event that contains information about individuals killed is coded manually into an events
dataset. For every event, the following information is recorded: the date of the event, thereporting source, the primary source, the actors involved, where the event took place, whatoccurred, and an estimate of fatalities. Ideally, these individual figures are corroborated by
two or more independent sources. These fatalities are later aggregated into a low, high,and best estimate for every calendar year.
The aggregated figures are also compared to total figures that appear in official documents,
special reports and the news media. This serves as a contribution to clarify the context inwhich events occur, thus facilitating proper interpretation of the reporting in publishedsources.
.

Best, Low and High Estimate of Battle-related Deaths
The general rule for UCDP’s estimation of battle-related deaths is moderation. All battlerelated deaths have to be verified in one way or another, and all estimates reported arebased on UCDP expertise of each particular conflict. As a general rule, all figures aredisaggregated as far as possible and any figures that are not trustworthy are disregarded in
the coding process. Due to the great uncertainty of reports from conflict areas, the projectprovides three estimates concerning battle-related deaths for each year.
(a) Best estimate. The UCDP Best estimate consist of the aggregated most reliable
numbers for all battle-related incidents during a year. If different reports provide
different estimates, an examination is made as to what source is most reliable. If nosuch distinction can be made, UCDP as a rule include the lower figure given.
(b) Low estimate. The UCDP Low estimate consists of the aggregated low estimates forall battle-related incidents during a year. If different reports provide different estimatesand a higher estimate is considered more reliable, the low estimate is also reported ifdeemed reasonable.
(c) High estimate. The UCDP High estimate consists of the aggregated high estimates forall battle-related incidents during a year. If different reports provide different estimatesand a lower estimate is considered more or equally reliable, the high estimate is also
reported if deemed reasonable. If there are incidents when there is some uncertainty
about what parties have been involved, these are also included in the high estimate.

9The VRA software system automatically generates specific events data and displays them in summary form.
For more information on automated events data and coding, see Bond et al. (2003).

References:Bond, Doug; Joe Bond; Churl Oh; J. Craig Jenkins & Charles Lewis Taylor, 2003. “Integrated
Data for Events Analysis (IDEA): An Event Typology for Automated Events DataDevelopment”, Journal of Peace Research 40 (6): 733-745.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Peter Wallensteen; Mikael Eriksson: Margareta Sollenberg & HåvardStrand, 2002. ”Armed Conflict 1946-2002, A New Dataset”, Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615-637.