Three Steps to the Future

Benedict Evans
January 2022
www.ben-evans.com

Benedict Evans –– December 2020

Three steps to the future
Three trends in 2021 - visions versus deployment and disruption

FuturePresent

Past

Tech visionsfor 2030

Startups deploy
the ideas of the2010s

Old economy
disrupted by ideas
from the 2000s

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

2

FutureBenedict Evans –– January 2022

3

Tech visions for 2030
What do tech people think about for the next decade?

Everything else
Web3

Metaverse

LEO satellites, plant-based meat,
AI, ESG, quantum, robotics,
ASICs, 3D printing, China, edge
computing, neural interfaces,computational biology, vertical
farming, autonomous cars,
drones, EVs,…

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

4

The great rebranding
Redefine the vision and set a broader goal, for both VR and crypto

Cryptocurrencies
Store of value, payments,
money transfer (andspeculation)

Web3
New models for building
software, internet businesses
and networks

VR/AR

Metaverse

Gaming headsets, niche
industrial tool, science projects

The next platform after
smartphones

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

5

Web3

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

6

“The Holy Roman Empire is neither holy, nor
Roman, nor an empire” - Voltaire‘Cryptocurrency’ is neither secret nor (only) a currency,‘blockchain’ or ‘DLT’ are not databases…

Benedict Evans –– January 20227

Web3 - a dream of a next version of the internet
A blockchain is a distributed, open computing system - or at least, that’s the planWeb

Web 2.0

Web3

Users read
Publishers create
and make money

Users create
Networks control &make money

Users create
Users control
networks & money

Benedict Evans –– January 20228

Web3 = Open Source 2
Open source changed how code is written - Web3 tries to change where it runs

Open Source

Web & SaaS

Web3

Open, distributed
code creation
No direct revenue

Mostly powered byOpen Source
But controlled, run& sold centrally

Open code
Open & distributed
execution
Integrated revenue

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

9

A messianic vision for tech
Like open source and the internet in their early days, a tech movement with a strong dose of religion

Closed and centralised

Open and decentralised

Companies make money

Users make money

All the old problems

All the old problems, in
exciting new ways

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

10

Obligatory market cap chart
Speculation and lots of market mechanics - but also billions of dollars of real money invested

Market capitalisations for the two largest crypto networks ($bn)

Bitcoin
Ethereum

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0
2017

Source: CoinMarketCap

2018

2019

2020

2021

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

11

The ‘store of value’ use case
Digital assets as a store of value are now taken somewhat seriously in financial markets

Current asset value, 2021 ($tr)

100

75

50

25

0

Crypto assets

Fed balance sheet

All above-ground gold

Source: CoinMarketCap, US Federal Reserve, World Gold Council, Bloomberg

US M2 Money Supply

Corporate bonds

Government bonds

Benedict Evans –– January 202212

Traction for software use cases?
Behind the speculation and market caps, what’s the traction for applications?

3-4m
addresses &$60-70bn
linked to DeFi
apps (?)

10m+
Metamask
MAUs

Source: Dune Analytics @rchen8, DeFi Pulse, Companies

200k
OpenSeaaccounts

450k ENS
domains

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

13

NFTs, today’s white-hot idea
Explosion of interest and quoted value‘Cultural value’ versus ‘intrinsic value’ is not a problematicconcept - ask Supreme
But tiny absolute numbers of people so far - by design! - andlots of noise and circularity
Interesting as experiments in digital property…
But also a tech building block with broader use cases

Source: OpenSea

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

14

New incentive structures
Helium is a distributed network of low power, low
bandwidth, IoT radio access points
Decentralised incentives, tracking and payment

Source: Helium

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

15

A nice adoption curve
Helium proposes a scalable incentive and payment model for a public wireless network

Active Helium hotspots

350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,0000
September 2019

Source: Helium

March 2020

September 2020

March 2021

September 2021

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

16

What are we looking at?
Massive noise, hype and irrational criticism from all directions

Market caps?

Ponzi schemes?

A share price is an opinion of the future;operating metrics are data about thepresent

Currencies, art and social networks are
based on collective adoption

A token price is neither, and bothAnd early adopters benefit most…
But this is also true of Ponzi schemes

So - is speculation validation?

Benedict Evans –– January 202217

Early (still!), exciting, unclear
Looks much like the early consumer internet, or open source (but also like lots of other things that never worked)

Deep technicalunderstanding
still needed

Fragmented &complex

Massive creative
energy, but alsohuge uncertainty

Benedict Evans –– January 202218

Is an iPhone open or closed?
Yes
The iPhone is full of open source software…
And yet it’s closed…
And yet there are millions of apps and billions of
app installs
So what do open or decentralised mean? Where,
and how, at what layers?

Source: Apple

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

19

Metaverse

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

20

The metaverse thesis
A vision of a universal screen

VR & AR as thenext universal
device after
smartphones

Games break out
VR & AR expand
far beyond games

Self-expression,place, identity,
pop culture

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

21

Mood boards for the future?
Many of these words will probably mean something - but not necessarily like that

1994: “Information Superhighway”

2021: “Metaverse”

Multimedia, GUIs, CD-ROM, interactive
TV, convergence, broadband networks,
voice recognition, digital… and VR

VR and AR, plus games, creator
economy, Roblox, digital self, spatial
internet & place… (and web3)

Disney, AT&T, Bertelsmann, Viacom

Facebook?

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

22

VR traction so far?
Growing interest, and Oculus Quest 2 sold 10m units in 12 months, but it didn’t surge in lockdown

Relative search interest, USAVR
Oculus

100

75

50

25

0
2010

Source: Google Trends

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

23

Small beginnings
So far, Roblox is a far bigger story (and Apple is keeping quiet)

Relative search interest, USAVR
Oculus
Roblox

100

75

50

25

0
2010

Source: Google Trends

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

24

Roblox as a model for the future?
A platform for social and for creating games and experiences, not just the latest hit game

Changing ‘games’
Self-expression &social, beyond 1p
shooting games

Ecosystem

Platform value?

Thousands ofapps and devs
with real use &revenue

Can this last for a
decade, instead offading like hit
games?

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

25

Games are still relatively small
There are probably 250-350m active ‘core gamers’ - the same size as Snap and a fraction of the 1bn+ iPhone users

Global daily active users*, 2021 (m)

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

XBox & PS MAU

SteamSource: Companies* Except Consoles and Oculus, as statedOculus Quest 2
unit sales

Free Fire

Honor of Kings

RobloxFortnite

Snap

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

26

Though mobile has changed the games TAM
Popular estimates of market size show dramatic growth in mobile

Global games revenue estimates ($bn)

MobilePC
Console

200

150

100

50

0

2012

Source: NewZoo

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

27

How universal do VR & AR become?
Moore’s Law took ‘mobile internet’ to everyone - but only took games consoles to a 200m unit installed base

The technology canalways get better…

But that doesn’t
guarantee universal
appealBenedict Evans –– January 2022

28

2030

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

29

“This is amazing - it must be part of the future”
Tech determinism - for both VR and ‘crypto’ the tech is great, so it must be useful, but how?

Internet, web,open source,
smartphones

But also drones,
3D printing,games consoles…

And now web3
and metaverse

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

30

The future can take a very long time
Mobile data didn’t take off outside Japan until a decade after the dream began

Smartphone unit sales (m)Proto-smartphones*
iPhone & Android

1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0
2000

Source: IDC, Companies* S60, Palm, RIM, Windows Phone

2005

2010

2015

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

31And you can have a winter (or two) on the way
Both AI and VR went through prolonged ‘Winters’ as the tech lagged behind early enthusiasm

Term frequency in English-language books

Arti cial Intelligence
Virtual Reality

1950

1960

fi

Source: Google Ngram

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

2019

32

No-one knows anything
In 1995, the future shape of the ‘internet’ still looked very unclear

Is it just the internet, or will there
still be lots of other networks?
How will FTP, Gopher, Telnet,
WAIS and Web interact?
How will the web work? Should
the browser be an editor? A
server? Should it have images?

Source: Telegeography

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

33

But some things do seem universal
How do we take ownership of digital?

New ways tomake software,
networks andownership?

Identify, selfexpression, placeand self

New ways to makescreens immersive
and universal?

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

34

Present

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

35

Deployment
What are companies building today?

Deploying all the great ideas
from the last decade
SaaS, cloud, machine learning,
digital transformation, workflows,
automation, image recognition,
fintech, voice, video, live
streaming…

Web3, Metaverse…
and everything else

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

36

‘Digital transformation’Sounds like a parody of marketing gibberish - but describes a generational change in enterprise tech

Mainframes

Client server,
PCs, Oracle,
Microsoft

Cloud, SaaS,
machine learning

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

37

The move to cloud is still just beginning
Only 10-15% of enterprise IT spending has moved to the cloud so far, and 20-30% of workflows

Global enterprise IT spending ($bn)

On-prem
Cloud

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2017

Source: Gartner

2018

2019

2020

2021e

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

38

Old paradigms have a long half-life
Mainframes are still out there, decades after the rest of tech moved on to bigger things

IBM Mainframe installed computing capacity (million MIPS)

75

50

25

0
1995

Source: IBM

2000

2005

2010

2015

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

2020

39

Rise of the ‘hyperscalers’
Alphabet and Microsoft alone are spending over $40bn this year on cloud infrastructure

Annual capex ($bn)

Meta
Amazon*Microsoft
Alphabet

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Companies* Includes both data centres and delivery fulfilment. Cash capex and lease obligations

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sept 21 TTM

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

40

How much software?
SaaS / cloud deployment model plus expansion of industry and capabilities means a step change in the opportunity

Mainframes

Client server

SaaS

IBM supplies you
with a hardware/
software system

Dozens ofapplications inyour data centre

Hundreds ofapplications (thatyou know about)

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

41

SaaS means far more software
SaaS operating model has meant a structural change in the amount of software companies can use

Average number of SaaS applications per Okta customer, by industry

2020
2019
2018
2017

175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

Tech

Source: Okta

Media

RetailProfessional
Services

Finance

Manufacturing Healthcare

Construction

Govt

EnergyBenedict Evans –– January 2022

42

Even within teams
SaaS operating model has meant a structural change in the amount of software companies can use

Average number of SaaS applications per team

2021
2020
2019

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

SecurityEngineering

Product

Source: Productiv
Data includes both SaaS SSO and proprietary analysis

Infotech

Customersuccess

Marketing

Finance

Sales

Ops

HR

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

43

The cloud means workflows, not better file shares
Don’t put your spreadsheet on the web - find a better way to do the job

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

44

Frame.io
Workflow for professional video
Replaces email, Slack, file share, Google sheets and lots
more email
Machine learning everywhere - but invisible

Source: Frame.io

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

45

Frame.io - welcome to 2005
15-year-old concept (‘Google Docs for video!’) but the techand the market are finally ready

Source: Frame.io

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

46

Remaking companies
Vodafone had 2.6m invoices, 40k queries & 1k payments FTEs - how would you change that?

Source: Vodafone (2019)

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

47

Mass deployment
Thousands more companies deploying everything we learned in the last decade, in ever more places

Building blocks
Platforms
SaaS, cloud, mobile

Networks,marketplaces,
workflows,
machine learning

Creation
So many morecompanies tobuildBenedict Evans –– January 2022

48

Past

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

49

Everything the internet did to music ornewspapers is now happening to everyone else

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

50

When do the atoms stop mattering?
As the internet removes physical barriers to entry, one industry after another is disrupted

Decline from peak, USA (indexed)

Pay TV subs
Book store revenue
Newspaper ad revenue

100

75

50

25

0
2000

Source: BLS, US Census, Companies

2005

2010

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

51

And how fast?
If pay TV fell ‘gradually, then suddenly’, retail has been a boiled frog

Decline from peak, USA (indexed)

Pay TV subs
Book store revenue
Newspaper ad revenue
O ine share of retail

100

75

50

25

0
2000

ffl

Source: BLS, US Census, Companies

2005

2010

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

52

The great unbundling“The internet breaks apart old value chains and creates new ones” - and we could have said that in 1995

Value chains &gate-keeping
based on physicalbreak apart

New models
New entrants
New channels
Destabilisation

New gatekeepers
New winners

Benedict Evans –– January 202253

TV unbundles…
US pay TV penetration is down a third from the peak

US TV household penetrationTV
Pay TVNet ix streaming

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%
1940

1960

fl

Source: Company data, FCC, US Census, Netflix, @BenedictEvans

1980

2000

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

54

“Is the Albanian army going to take over theworld? I don’t think so”
Jeff Bewkes, CEO of Time Warner, on Netflix,
2010

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

55

New entrants and aggregators emerge
New entrants outspending most legacy content manufacturers

2021e content budgets ($bn)

Sport
Film & TV

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

DisneyNet ixfl

Source: Morgan Stanley, Ampere

ComcastAmazonViacomCBS

Warner

Discovery

Fox

Apple

UK, FR, DE, ES, IT
combined

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

56

Big fish become small fish
For UK 16-34s, streaming from US companies is now bigger than total viewing for the entire UK TV industry

UK 16-34s daily video viewing (minutes)

YouTubeSubscription streaming
Broadcaster VOD
RecordedLive TV

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2017

Source: Ofcom

2018

2019

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

57

New control points?
Apple announced the Apple TV and iPhone at the same
event in 2007…
But TV software was a backwater for a decade
Now the TV has become a battleground, powered by theshift from live to streaming
And the target is $200bn of legacy TV advertising

Source: Sky

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

58

Welcome to 2007
YouTube launched in 2005, and Hulu in 2007
Deploying old ideas that are finally ready to work

Source: Techcrunch

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

59

Retail unbundles
Lockdown has pulled forward future adoption - but much less in the USA than elsewhere

Ecommerce as a share of addressable retail*

UK (monthly)
USA (quarterly)

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
January 2010

January 2012

January 2014

Source: ONS, US Census* Excluding cars, car parts, fuel, bars & restaurants. Seasonally adjusted

January 2016

January 2018

January 2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

January 2022

60

(The future is unevenly distributed)
Over 80% of people in Britain buy online regularly, but less than a third of Italians

Percentage of population buying online in last 3 months, Europe

2020
2019
2015

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

UK

DK

DE

NL

SE

IRL

Source: Eurostat. Data for France in 2020 not available

FR

BE

FI

AT

ES

CZ

PL

HU

EL

PT

IT

TR

RO

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

61

Retail unbundles
Excluding grocery, 40% of UK retail spending is now online

UK ecommerce as % retail*Share of non-grocery
Share of total
Share of grocery

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010

2015

Source: ONS* Excluding cars, car parts, fuel, bars & restaurants. Seasonally adjusted

2020

September 2021

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

62

Everyone buys anything online - the question is how
Cardboard boxes versus hand delivery, trucks and bikes

US retail revenue by delivery model, 2020 ($bn)

2,500

2,000

1,500

PhysicalretailRestaurants

1,000

Gasoline

Other

500
Ecommerce

GroceryOn-prem
Analogue off-prem0

Could be parcels

Source: US Census. Cars, car repair & gasoline not shown. * 2019

Needs delivery or collection

Restaurants*

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

63

New logistics models
Amazon spent $74bn on shipping in the last 12 months, and expects to be larger than UPS or Fedex in the USA by 2022

Annual US parcel volume (bn)Amazon Logistics
Fedex
UPS
USPS

25

20

15

10

5

0

2014

Source: Pitney Bowes, Amazon

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

64

New channels, new aggregators
The e-commerce leader is on track to overtake the car-commerce leader

Retail revenue ($bn)

Walmart net sales
Amazon ex. AWS
Amazon GMV (e)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1980

1990

Source: Amazon, Walmart, @BenedictEvans

2000

2010

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

2020
Sept 2021 TTM

65

New channels have new toll booths‘Merchant media’ - Amazon has >$25bn of ad revenue, possibly producing more cash than AWS

Amazon ‘other, predominantly ads’ revenue, TTM ($bn)

40

30

20

10

0
Mar-17

Sep-17

Source: Amazon

Mar-18

Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20

Sep-20Mar-21

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

Sep-2166

Endless waves of new competitors
Shopify powered over $160bn of e-commerce in the last 12 months

Shopify GMV ($bn)

175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

2014

Source: Shopify

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sept 2021 TTM

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

67

And new ways to unbundle
60% of Amazon is now Marketplace - and Shopify is now 45% as large as Marketplace

Ecommerce GMV ($bn)

Amazon 1P
Amazon Marketplace (e)Shopify

400

300

200

100

0

2014

2015

Source: Amazon, Shopify, @BenedictEvans

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sept 2021 TTM

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

68

New gatekeepers“We personalise ads; you track your users; they violate
fundamental human rights”
Smartphones are not a neutral platform…
And this has a big impact on D2C brands
Conflict between privacy and competition regulators

Source: Apple

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

69

Because changing the channel changes what’s bought
Smaller brands have dramatically larger share online

US CPG sales by brand size, 2020

Private label
Large brands
MediumSmall
Extra small

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

Physical retail

Source: IRI

Ecommerce: delivery

Ecommerce: home shipment

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

70

Brands go digital
B2B businesses learning new channels

Ecommerce as % sales, 2021

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

L'Oreal

Source: Companies

Nestlé

P&G

UnileverColgate

Kellogg's

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

71

New experiences break in
Shein breaks in to fast fashion with a new UX and new data models (and a massive acquisition budget)

Worldwide search interest
Zara
H&M
Shein

100

75

50

25

0
2005

Source: Google Trends

2010

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

72

Shein captures US mindshare
Now a major teenage online shopping brandFemale US teenagers' top 10 favourite online shopping brands

Next 8
Shein
Amazon

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

Spring 2020

Source: Piper Sandler

Autumn 2020

Spring 2021

Autumn 2021

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

73

Shein now leads US fast fashion?
On some estimates, Shein is now the largest US fast fashion retailer

US fast fashion market share

Others
Zara
H&M
Shein

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

January 2020

Source: Earnest Research

July 2020

January 2021

July 2021

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

74

This has all happened before
Department stores were Amazon, once - this is another generational change

Share of US retail sales

Department stores
Superstores
Ecommerce

17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
1995

Source: BLS

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 202275

Is this about good tech?
Or good retailing?

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

76

Questions from 1995?
Or questions from 1900?

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

77

Is this tech?
Is a good ‘digital’ experience a digital problem, or a company problem?

Taps to open a new UK bank account online, 2020

125

100

75

50

25

0

Revolut

Source: Built for Mars

Starling

Monzo

LloydsBarclays

NatWest

Co-op

HSBC

First Direct

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

78

How do you serve your customers?
US brands & retailers spend $7-800bn to reach their customers - rent is the new CAC

Retail rents$300bn+Logistics“How do I get it?”

Shipping$130bnDiscovery“What do I want?”

Marketing$200bnAdvertising$200bnSource: Pitney Bowes, Zenith, Costar, US Census

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

79

Conclusion

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

80

All the things I left out
When software eats the world, everything becomes a software question

Privacy
Advertising

Frontier AI

MoralpanicsChina
Remote work

Splinternets

Regulation

M&A

Local
delivery

Semiconductors

Security

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

81

Past, future, present
While tech builds the future, industries in its wake try to adjust

Tech dreams
for 2030

Building techstartups today

Old economy
adjusts to tech
disruption

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

82

The fall and rise of music
Music was one of the first industries to be overturned by the internet - how’s it doing?

Global recorded music revenue ($bn, 2020 dollars)

Streaming
Downloads
Synch
Performance
Physical

40

30

20

10

0
2000

Source: IFPI, BLS

2005

2010

2015

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

83

The scale of platform rents
Apple makes more from platform rents than the entire global music industry, or Netflix

Annual revenue* ($bn)

4030
Google TAC
payments
20

10

0

App Storecommissions

Global recorded musicflSource: IFPI, Netflix, Apple, DoJ*2020 for music, September 2021 TTM for others

Net ixApple platform rent

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

84

Platform leverageOver $100bn in revenue from leveraging the platform and installed base

Annual revenue* ($bn)

125

100

Wearables,home &
accessories

75

50Services25

0Global recorded musicflSource: IFPI, Netflix, Apple, DoJ*2020 for music, September 2021 TTM for others

Net ixApple platform rent

Apple platform leverage

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

85

How much does Apple care about music or TV?
Total Apple revenue is close to 20x recorded music

Annual revenue* ($bn)

400

300

200

100

0

Global recorded music

Net ixfl

Source: IFPI, Netflix, Apple, DoJ*2020 for music, September 2021 TTM for others

Apple platform rent

Apple platform leverageApple revenue

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

86Moving to bigger opportunities
Tech has gone from selling accounting tools to big companies to replacing those companies

Music: $21bn
Books: $90bn

Source: IFPI, PwC, World Bank

Advertising &marketing:$1tr+

Retail: $20tr+

Consumerspending:$50tr

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

87

Unprecedented investment in tech
A firehose of money into the tech startup ecosystem

US VC deal activity ($bn)

Under $50m
Over $50m

200

150

100

50

0
2010

2011

Source: NVCA

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

Q3 2021 TTM

88

(Well, almost unprecedented)
Tech investing now matches levels seen in the bubble, but based on reality rather than promise

US tech venture investing ($bn, 2021 dollars)

125

100

75

50

25

0
1980

1990

Source: Capital IQ, Jay Ritter, University of Florida, NVCA, a16z, BLS

2000

2010

2020

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

89

Hot money

Source: Fred Wilson

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

90

And some excitement
Tesla’s current valuation presumes it will capture more value than the entire global car industry

Enterprise value, September 2021 ($bn)

1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0

Tesla

Source: Bloomberg

Top 10 car OEMs

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

91

First 50 years, second 50 years
Tech used to sell accounting tools to big companies - now it’s part of our life

Mainframes
Big companies

PCs
All companies

Web
Middle-classes

Smartphones
Everyone

Systemicallyimportant part ofsociety

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

92

The last time this happened
GM, Ford and Chrysler were 20% of Fortune 500 earnings
in the late 1950s
But who made more from the deployment of cars, and who
made more from car-commerce - Detroit, or retailers?

Source: Sears, Roebuck

Benedict Evans –– January 2022

93

Thank you

Benedict Evans
January 2022
www.ben-evans.com

Benedict Evans –– December 2020