IEEJ: November 2009

Northeast Asia Petroleum Forum 2009

Mid-term Oil Demand Outlook
in JapanNobuo Hata
Managing Director,Petroleum Association of JapanIEEJ: November 2009

1. Demand Trend and Outlook
30(千kl)Gasoline
NaphthaJet/Kerosene
Gas OilFuel Oil A
Fuel Oil BC

20

10

21.4％

6％

090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13(fy)2

IEEJ: November 2009

2. Framework of Outlook（％）

Economic Framework
Growthrate

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

ＧＤＰ▲0.8

0.0

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

ＩＩＰ▲5.5

▲4.8

4.9

1.2

1.2

1.2

Production in major industries（10,000t）

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

Crudesteel

10,550

10,137

10,235

10,345

10,443

10,553

Paper

2,885

2,829

2,807

2,789

2,767

2,749

Cement

6,130

5,800

5,741

5,683

5,625

5,574

Ethylene

652

679

704

687676672※exchange rate（¥/$）: fy2008 ¥101.7, fy2009 onward ¥96.9※crude oil price（$/B）: fy2008 $94.3, fy2009 $58.4, fy2010 onward $58.8※GDP outlook is based on government economic outlook（cabinet approval in Jan 2009）、Council on Economic andFiscal Policy（Jan 2009）IEEJ: November 2009

3. Gasoline
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy201357,47355,94954,09052,46650,561

48,862

▲2.7%

▲2.7%

▲3.3%

▲3.0%

▲3.6%

▲3.4%

２．Current situation
・Aging population, fewer children, population decline andyoung people prefer not driving cars
・Decline of driving mileage by increase of aged and female
drivers
・Improvement of fuel efficiency

３．Affecting factors in future・Increase of hybrid-car and electric vehicleIEEJ: November 2009

4. Naphtha
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy201342,87344,00645,431

44,66844,174

43,957▲11.7%

2.6%

3.2%

▲1.7%

▲1.1%

▲0.5%

２．Current situation
・Decline of domestic demand of petrochemical products byrecession
・Production of ethylene, BTX recover in the latter half of 2009

３．Affecting factors in future・Newly-build or addition of ethylene-production capacity in Asia
and Middle EastIEEJ: November 2009

5. Jet Fuel
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011fy2012

fy2013

5,676

5,684

5,680

5,709

5,769

5,861

▲4.1%

0.1%

▲0.1%

0.5%

1.1%

1.6%

２．Current situation• Improvement in fuel efficiency of civil aviation• Rationalization of airline routes due to recession
３．Affecting factors in future
・ Expansion of Tokyo International Airport (Haneda)

IEEJ: November 2009

6. Kerosene
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

20,25018,901

17,923

17,12016,375

15,848▲10.7% ▲6.7%

▲5.2%

▲4.5%

▲4.4%

▲3.2%

２．Current situation• Shift of heating fuels to electricity or town gas• Decline of industry use by recession• Mild winter３．Affecting factors in future・Competition in home heating fuel market

IEEJ: November 2009

7. Gas Oil
１．Demand outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy201333,722

32,593

31,63430,88030,15629,532

▲5.2%

▲3.3%

▲2.9%

▲2.4%

▲2.3%

▲2.1%

２．Current situation• Decline continues since fy1996• Reduction of transportation demand by recession• Declining of a number of trucks by rationalizing thedistribution
３．Affecting factors in future
・Further rationalization of the distribution

IEEJ: November 2009

8. Fuel Oil A
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

17,891

16,673

15,68914,84014,05013,361▲16.3% ▲6.8%

▲5.9%

▲5.4%

▲5.3%

▲4.9%

２．Current situation• Mining and Manufacturing：declining production byrecession• Agriculture and fishery：declining working population• Fuel change from environmental consideration and energy
conservation measures
３．Affecting factors in future
・Progress of fuel shift to town gas

IEEJ: November 2009

9. Fuel Oil BC（for general use）
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

10,334

8,356

7,542

6,882

6,304

5,820

▲6.8% ▲19.1% ▲9.7%

▲8.8%

▲8.4%

▲7.7%

２．Current situation• Declining production activities by recession• Fuel change from environmental consideration
３．Affecting factors in future
・Progress of fuel shift to town gas

IEEJ: November 2009

10. Fuel Oil C (for electric power）
１．Demand Outlook(1,000kl)

fy2008fy2009fy2010fy2011

fy2012fy2013

12,823

8,964

8,575

8,402

5,801

4,964

▲10.1% ▲30.1% ▲4.3%
Electricity
demand▲3.3▲1.50.6▲2.0% ▲31.0% ▲14.4%
1.1

0.3

0.6

２．Current situation• Declining power demand by recession
３．Affecting factors in future• Further increase in LNG and nuclear power generation

IEEJ: November 2009

11. Supply Scenarios in 2013
case① Throughput based on gasoline and naphtha yieldThroughput is 192,247 thousand kl
Utilization rate is 68.6％
case② Throughput based on 4 middle distillate yieldThroughput is 143,241 thousand kl
Utilization rate is 51.1％
case③：Throughput based on volume of import and export
Throughput is 178,711 thousand kl
Utilization rate is 63.8％※The utilization rate is calculated based on the crude distillation capacity as ofApr.2009 (4,895B/D ）IEEJ: November 2009

12. Mid/Long-term Issues
Price• Crude oil price• Tax system

Export• Demand in Asia

Environment

Social• Global warming issues• Energy conservation• Change of social structure• Change of industrial
structureIEEJ: November 2009

Thank you for your attention.

Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp