Study of post-disaster indirect death- by the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
東日本大震災における震災関連死に関する研究

ZHENG Xiang
The Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, University of Tokyozhengxiangemerge@gmail.com
2023/03/10

CONTENTS
1. Introduction
Miyako city

Ofunato area

2. Results
3. Methodology
4. Discussion

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Photo Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

5. Contribution

1. Introduction
Date & Time

March 11, 2011. 2:46 p.m. JST

Magnitude

9.0

Casualties

19,747 deaths, 6,242 injured, 2,556 missing

Destroyed house

1,168,453Economic loss

Over ¥25 trillion ($300 billion)

Tsunami height

Max 15m-20m

Definition
災害関連死：当該災害による負傷の悪化又は避難生活等における身体的負担による疾病により死亡し、災害弔慰金の支給等に関する法律（昭和48年法律第82 号）に基づき災害が原因で死亡したものと認められたもの 。
Disaster-related indirect death: Death that is due to injury
worsening or illness associated with physical burden fromdisplacement, and recognized as caused by the disaster according
to the condolence law (Act No. 82 of 1973).
Source: Cabinet Office (2020)

2. Results

Estimated and actual CDR* (per 10,000 people) during 2000-2019

ColorColor
ActualEstimatedFillMoreLess*CDR: Crude death Rate

Number of indirect death

Miyagi

Iwate

Fukushima

Reported (by 31 March 2022 )

930

4702333

Estimated

1734

1350

1573

Discrepancy

804

880

-760

Regression analysis
Predictors
Direct Mortality (Per 10,000 residents)

OLS
Estimates
0.03 **

Robust Linear Model
Estimates standardized CI
0.03 ***
0.20 – 0.44

Distance to epicenter (km)-0.14 *

-0.10 **

-0.35 – -0.08

Nuclear Impact (0/1)

28.61 ***

37.42 ***

0.40 – 0.59

Single Household Rate (Per 100 households)

0.50 **

0.29 **

0.05 – 0.26

Average Income (1000 yen per resident)

0.03 *

0.01-0.13 – 0.76

Employment Rate (Per 100 residents)-0.97 *

-0.32

-0.83 – 0.15

Life expectancy F (Year)-9.36 *

-4.61 *

-0.28 – -0.01

R2 / R2 adjusted*Excerpted indicators

0.839 /0.778* p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

3. Methodology:
Mechanism

1

Surveillance body
23Determinants

The Crude death rates per 100,000 people

Data source: Vital registration mortality data from Population, Demographic and Household Surveys based on the Basic Resident Ledger

The direct death and the reported cumulative indirect death
DirectIshinomaki : 3553
Rikuzentakada: 1606
Kesennuma : 1218
IndirectMinamisoma : 520
Tomioka : 454
Namie : 442

The timeline of the public policy of indirect death
Act No. 82
Enactment of the "Act on thePayment of Disaster Condolence
Money, etc." proposed by Mr.
Takashi Sato

Act No. 6

Act No. 88

Maximum amount ofpayment to 2,000,000 yen

Maximum amountincreased to 5 million yen

1982

2011

1976
1973

1991

1978

Act No. 74

Act No. 70

Act No. 86 & 100

Maximum amount of grantincreased from 1,000,000
yen to 1,500,000 yen

Establishment of theDisaster Disability
Compensation System

1.Addition of brothers andsisters to the scope
2. Prohibition of seizure, etc.

Source:災害関連死の審査について -東日本大震災における岩手県の取組から- 宮本ともみ

4. Discussion

Social capital

Source: Neal, J., Neal, Z. Implementation capital: merging frameworks of implementation outcomes and social capital to support the use of evidence-based practices. (2019)

Post-disaster recovery : (1) Higher satisfaction (2) Speedier recovery
Nakagawa, Y., & Shaw, R. (2004). Social capital: A missing link to disaster recovery. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 22(1), 5-34.

Physical factors

The triple disaster:Tsunami, earthquake and nuclear accident

Triple disasters● Earthquake: the triggering disaster● Tsunami:130,000 houses demolished &16,9 trillion yen lost
● Nuclear accident:154,000 residents displacedDemographic factors● Single-person households : 6.1 mil → 21 mil during 1970 - 2020
● The ratio of the aged (over 65 years old) living alone :4.3% → 15.0% (male) and 11.2% → 22.1% (female) during
1980- 2020

Economic factors

Unemployment rate (2021)
Miyagi: 3.1% , Fukushima : 2.2%, Iwate : 2.3%

Well-being● Izumi district (a bed town in Sendai) has the highest life
expectancy in 2011
○ 82.2 (male) is 3.4 years longer than Kamaishi (Iwate)○ 87.9 (femlae) is 2.7 years longer than Nishigo (Fukushima)

7 targets of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Source: UNDRR 2020

5. Contribution
Long-term effects

Japan’s surveillance

A more developed method

Improvement for certification

Standardization&Optimization

Global surveillance
A recommended adjustment for SFDRR

Thank you.