Contents:

1

Page 2: December 2014 global surface air temperature overview
Page 3: Comments to the December 2014 global surface air temperature overview
Page 4: Lower troposphere temperature from satellites
Page 5: Global surface air temperature
Page 8: Global air temperature linear trends
Page 9: Global temperatures: All in one
Page 10: Global sea surface temperature
Page 13: Ocean heat content uppermost 100 and 700 m
Page 16: North Atlantic heat content uppermost 700 m
Page 17: North Atlantic sea temperatures along 59N
Page 18: North Atlantic sea temperatures 30-0W at 59N
Page 19: Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures from satellites
Page 20: Zonal lower troposphere temperatures from satellites
Page 21: Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere temperatures from satellites
Page 22: Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures
Page 25: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
Page 28: Global sea level
Page 29: Northern Hemisphere weekly snow cover
Page 31: Atmospheric specific humidity
Page 32: Atmospheric CO2
Page 33: The phase relation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature
Page 34: Global surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2
Page 35: Last 20 year monthly surface air temperature change
Page 38: Climate and history; one example among many:
1845-1848: The Franklin Expedition to the Northwest Passage

All diagrams in this newsletter as well as links to the original data are available on www.climate4you.com

December 2014 global surface air temperature overview

2

December 2014 surface air temperature compared to the 1998-2006 average. Green-yellow-red colours indicate areas with higher
temperature than the 1998-2006 average, while blue colours indicate lower than average temperatures. Data source: Goddard Institutefor Space Studies (GISS).

Comments to the December 2014 global surface air temperature overview
General: This newsletter contains graphs showing
a selection of key meteorological variables for the
past month. All temperatures are given in degrees
Celsius.
In the above maps showing the geographicalpattern of surface air temperatures, the period
1998-2006 is used as reference period. The reason
for comparing with this recent period instead of
the official WMO ‘normal’ period 1961-1990, is thatthe latter period is affected by the cold period
1945-1980. Most comparisons with such a low
average value will therefore appear as warm, and it
will be difficult to decide if modern surface airtemperatures are increasing or decreasing.
Comparing with a more recent period overcomes
this problem.

and the thick line indicate a simple runningaverage, in most cases a simple moving 37-monthaverage, nearly corresponding to a three-year
average. The 37-month average is calculated fromvalues covering a range from 18 month before to
18 months after, with equal weight for every
month.
The year 1979 has been chosen as starting point inmany diagrams, as this roughly corresponds toboth the beginning of satellite observations and theonset of the late 20th century warming period.
However, several of the records have a much
longer record length, which may be inspected ingreater detail on www.Climate4you.com.

December 2014 global surface air temperatures

3

In addition to the above consideration, the recent
temperature development suggests that the time
window 1998-2006 may roughly represent a global
temperature peak (see, e.g., p. 4-6). However, it
might be argued that the time interval 1999-2006
or 2000-2006 would better represent a possible
temperature peak period. However, by starting in1999 (or 2000) the cold La Niña period 1999-2000
would result in a unrealistic low reference
temperature by excluding the previous warm El
Niño in 1998. These two opposite phenomena must
be considered together to obtain a representativereference average, and this why the year 1998 isincluded in the adopted reference period.
Finally, the GISS temperature data used for
preparing the above diagrams show a pronounced
temporal instability for data before 1998 (see p. 7).
Any comparison with the WMO ‘normal’ period
1961-1990 is therefore influenced by monthly
changing values for the so-called ‘normal’ period,
which is therefore not suited as reference.
In the other diagrams in this newsletter the thinline represents the monthly global average value,

General: In general, the global air temperature wasnear the 1998-2006 average.
The Northern Hemisphere was characterised bymarked regional air temperature contrasts. Alaska
and western Siberia had relatively hightemperatures. Most of North Atlantic with
Greenland and parts of Siberia had below averagetemperatures. The Arctic was relatively cold in thecentral Canada – Siberia region, while the Alaska
and NW Russia sectors were relatively warm.
Near the Equator temperatures conditions weregenerally somewhat above the 1998-2006 averagein the Pacific sector, but below average in the
Atlantic-Africa sector.
The Southern Hemisphere temperatures weremainly near or below average 1998-2006
conditions. Northern Australia had slightly higher
than average temperatures. The Antarctic wasmainly at or below average 1998-2006
temperature.

Lower troposphere temperature from satellites, updated to December 2014

Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature (thin line) since 1979 according to University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA. The
thick line is the simple running 37-month average.

4

Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature (thin line) since 1979 according to according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS),
USA. The thick line is the simple running 37-month average.

Global surface air temperature, updated to December 2014

5

Global monthly average surface air temperature (thin line) since 1979 according to according to the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction
and Research and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), UK. The thick line is the simple running 37-month average.
Version HadCRUT4 (blue) is now replacing HadCRUT3 (red). Please note that this diagram is not yet updated beyond November 2014.

Global monthly average surface air temperature (thin line) since 1979 according to according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies(GISS), at Columbia University, New York City, USA. The thick line is the simple running 37-month average.

Global monthly average surface air temperature since 1979 according to according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), USA.
The thick line is the simple running 37-month average.

6
A note on data record stability:
All the above temperature estimates display
changes when one compare with previous monthly
data sets, not only for the most recent months as aresult of supplementary data being added, but
actually for all months back to the very beginningof the records, more than 100 years ago.
Presumably this reflects recognition of errors,changes in the averaging procedure, and theinfluence of other unknown phenomena.

None of the temperature records are entirely
stable over time (since 2008). The two surface airtemperature records, NCDC and GISS, show
apparent systematic changes over time. This isexemplified the diagram on the following page
showing the changes since May 2008 in the NCDC
global surface temperature record for January 1915
and January 2000, illustrating how the difference
between the early and late part of the temperaturerecords gradually is growing by administrative
adjustments.
You can find more on the issue of lack of temporalstability on www.climate4you (go to: Global
Temperature, followed by Temporal Stability).

7

Diagram showing the adjustment made since May 2008 by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in theanomaly values for the two months January 1915 and January 2000.

Note: The administrative upsurge of the temperature increase between January 1915 and January 2000 has
grown from 0.39 (May 2008) to 0.52 oC (January 2015), representing an about 33% administrative temperature
increase over this period.

Global air temperature linear trends updated to November 2014

Diagram showing the latest 5, 10, 20 and 30 yr linear annual global temperature trend, calculated as the slopeof the linear regression line through the data points, for two satellite-based temperature estimates (UAH MSU
and RSS MSU). Last month included in analysis: November 2014.

8

Diagram showing the latest 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 70 and 100 year linear annual global temperature trend,
calculated as the slope of the linear regression line through the data points, for three surface-based
temperature estimates (GISS, NCDC and HadCRUT4). Last month included in all analyses: November 2014.

All in one, updated to November 2014

9

Superimposed plot of all five global monthly temperature estimates. As the base period differs for the individual
temperature estimates, they have all been normalised by comparing with the average value of the initial 120
months (10 years) from January 1979 to December 1988. The heavy black line represents the simple running 37
month (c. 3 year) mean of the average of all five temperature records. The numbers shown in the lower rightcorner represent the temperature anomaly relative to the individual 1979-1988 averages.

It should be kept in mind that satellite- and surfacebased temperature estimates are derived fromdifferent types of measurements, and thatcomparing them directly as done in the diagram
above therefore may be somewhat problematical.
However, as both types of estimate often are
discussed together, the above diagram maynevertheless be of some interest. In fact, thedifferent types of temperature estimates appear toagree quite well as to the overall temperature
variations on a 2-3 year scale, although on ashorter time scale there are often considerable
differences between the individual records.

All five global temperature estimates presently
show an overall stagnation, at least since 2002.
There has been no increase in global air
temperature since 1998, which however wasaffected by the oceanographic El Niño event. This
stagnation does not exclude the possibility that
global temperatures will begin to increase again
later. On the other hand, it also remain a possibility
that Earth just now is passing a temperature peak,
and that global temperatures will begin to decreaseduring the coming years. Time will show which ofthese two possibilities is correct.

Global sea surface temperature, updated to December 201410

Sea surface temperature anomaly on 20 December 2014. Map source: National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NOAA).

Because of the large surface areas near Equator,
the temperature of the surface water in theseregions is especially important for the global
atmospheric temperature (p.4-6).

major heat exchanges takes place between the
Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above,
eventually showing up in estimates of the global air
temperature.

Relatively warm water is dominating the Pacific
Ocean and Indian Ocean near the Equator, and is
influencing global air temperatures now and in themonths to come.

However, this does not reflect similar changes inthe total heat content of the atmosphere-oceansystem. In fact, global net changes can be small andsuch heat exchanges may mainly reflect
redistribution of energy between ocean andatmosphere. What matters is the overalltemperature development when seen over anumber of years.

The significance of any such short-term cooling or
warming reflected in air temperatures should not
be over stated. Whenever Earth experiences cold
La Niña or warm El Niño episodes (Pacific Ocean)Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature over oceans (thin line) since 1979 according to University of Alabama at
Huntsville, USA. The thick line is the simple running 37 month average.

11

Global monthly average sea surface temperature since 1979 according to University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), UK.
Base period: 1961-1990. The thick line is the simple running 37-month average. Please note that this diagram is not updated beyond
November 2014.

Global monthly average sea surface temperature since 1979 according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), USA. Base period:
1901-2000. The thick line is the simple running 37-month average.

12

Ocean heat content uppermost 100 and 700 m, updated to June 2014

Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the oceans since January 1955. Data source: National
Oceanographic Data Center(NODC).

13World Oceans vertical average temperature 0-100 m depth since 1955. The thin line indicate 3-month values, and the thick line
represents the simple running 39-month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Baseperiod 1955-2010.

Pacific Ocean vertical average temperature 0-100 m depth since 1955. The thin line indicate 3-month values, and the thick line
represents the simple running 39-month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Baseperiod 1955-2010.

14

Atlantic Ocean vertical average temperature 0-100 m depth since 1955. The thin line indicate 3-month values, and the thick line
represents the simple running 39-month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Baseperiod 1955-2010.

Indian Ocean vertical average temperature 0-100 m depth since 1955. The thin line indicate 3-month values, and the thick line
represents the simple running 39-month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Baseperiod 1955-2010.

15

North Atlantic heat content uppermost 700 m, updated to June 201416

Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N; see map above) ocean
since January 1955. The thin line indicates monthly values, and the thick line represents the simple running 37 month (c. 3 year) average.
Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC).

North Atlantic sea temperatures along 59N, updated to October 201417

Depth-temperature diagram along 59 N across the North Atlantic, extending from northern Labrador in thewest to northern Scotland in the east, using Argo-data. The uppermost panel shows the temperature, and thelower diagram shows the temperature anomaly, using the monthly average temperature 2004-2013 asreference. Source: Global Marine Argo Atlas.

North Atlantic sea temperatures 30-0W at 59N, updated to October 201418

Average temperature along 59 N, 30-0W, 0-800m depth, corresponding to the main part of the North Atlantic
Current, using Argo-data. Source: Global Marine Argo Atlas. Additional information can be found in: Roemmich,
D. and J. Gilson, 2009. The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the
global ocean from the Argo Program. Progress in Oceanography, 82, 81-100.

Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures from satellites, updated to December 201419

Global monthly average temperature in different altitudes according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). The thinlines represent the monthly average, and the thick line the simple running 37 month average, nearlycorresponding to a running 3 yr average.

Zonal lower troposphere temperatures from satellites, updated to December 201420

Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979 for the tropics and the northern andsouthern extratropics, according to University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA. Thin lines show the monthly
temperature. Thick lines represent the simple running 37-month average, nearly corresponding to a running 3
yr average. Reference period 1981-2010.

Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere temperature, updated to December 201421

Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979 for the North Pole and South Pole regions, based on satellite
observations (University of Alabama at Huntsville, USA). Thin lines show the monthly temperature. The thick line is the simple running
37-month average, nearly corresponding to a running 3 yr average.

Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperature, updated to November 2014o

22

Diagram showing area weighted Arctic (70-90 N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since January
2000, in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature anomaly, while
the thicker red line shows the running 37 month (c.3 yr) average.

oDiagram showing area weighted Antarctic (70-90 N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since
January 2000, in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature
anomaly, while the thicker red line shows the running 37 month (c.3 yr) average.

oDiagram showing area weighted Arctic (70-90 N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since January
1957, in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature anomaly, while
the thicker red line shows the running 37 month (c.3 yr) average.

23oDiagram showing area weighted Antarctic (70-90 N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since
January 1957, in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature
anomaly, while the thicker red line shows the running 37 month (c.3 yr) average.

oDiagram showing area-weighted Arctic (70-90 N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since January
1920, in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature anomaly, while
the thicker red line shows the running 37 month (c.3 yr) average. Because of the relatively small number of Arctic stations
before 1930, month-to-month variations in the early part of the temperature record are larger than later. The period fromabout 1930 saw the establishment of many new Arctic meteorological stations, first in Russia and Siberia, and following
the 2nd World War, also in North America. The period since 2000 is warm, about as warm as the period 1930-1940.

24

As the HadCRUT4 data series has improved highlatitude coverage data coverage (compared to the
HadCRUT3 series) the individual 5ox5o grid cells has
been weighted according to their surface area. This
is in contrast to Gillet et al. 2008 which calculated asimple average, with no consideration to thesurface area represented by the individual 5ox5ogrid cells.

Literature:
Gillett, N.P., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T.,
Karpechko, A.Y.U., Hegerl, G.C., Wehner, M.F. andJones, P.D. 2008. Attribution of polar warming tohuman influence. Nature Geoscience 1, 750-754.

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, updated to December 201425

Sea ice extent 19 December 2014. The 'normal' or average limit of sea ice (orange line) is defined as 15% sea ice cover, according to theaverage of satellite observations 1981-2010 (both years inclusive). Sea ice may therefore well be encountered outside and open water
areas inside the limit shown in the diagrams above. Map source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Graphs showing monthly Antarctic, Arctic and global sea ice extent since November 1978, according to the National Snow and Ice data
Center (NSIDC).

Graph showing daily Arctic sea ice extent since June 2002, to 13 January 2015, by courtesy of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency(JAXA).

26

27

Northern hemisphere sea ice extension and thickness on 18 January 2015 according to the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS),
US Naval Research Laboratory. Thickness scale (m) to the right.

28
12 month running average sea ice extension in both hemispheres since 1979, the satellite-era. The October 1979 value represents themonthly average of November 1978 - October 1979, the November 1979 value represents the average of December 1978 - November
1979, etc. Last month included in the 12-month calculations: December 2014. Data source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Global sea level, updated to August 2014

Global sea level (thin line) since late 1992 according to the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at University of Colorado at
Boulder. The thick stippled line represents a two-degree polynomium. The polynomium suggests the rate of the ongoing global sea level
rise to be slowly decreasing. Time is shown along the x-axis as fractions of calendar years.

29

Forecasted change of global sea level until year 2100, based on simple extrapolation of measurements done by the Colorado Center for
Astrodynamics Research at University of Colorado at Boulder, USA. The thick line is the simple running 3 yr average forecast for sea levelchange until year 2100. Based on this (thick line), the present simple empirical forecast of sea level change until 2100 is about +38 cm.

Northern Hemisphere weekly snow cover, updated to early January 2015

Northern hemisphere snow cover (white) and sea ice (yellow) 17 January 2014 (left) and 2015 (right). Map
source: National Ice Center (NIC).

30

Northern hemisphere weekly snow cover since January 2000 according to Rutgers University Global Snow Laboratory. The thin blue lineis the weekly data, and the thick blue line is the running 53-week average (approximately 1 year). The horizontal red line is the 19722013 average.

Northern hemisphere weekly snow cover since January 1972 according to Rutgers University Global Snow Laboratory. The thin blue lineis the weekly data, and the thick blue line is the running 53-week average (approximately 1 year). The horizontal red line is the 19722013 average.

31

Atmospheric specific humidity, updated to December 201432

Specific atmospheric humidity (g/kg) at three different altitudes in the lower part of the atmosphere (the Troposphere) since January
1948 (Kalnay et al. 1996). The thin blue lines shows monthly values, while the thick blue lines show the running 37-month average (about
3 years). Data source: Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA).

Atmospheric CO2, updated to December 2014

33

Monthly amount of atmospheric CO2 (upper diagram) and annual growth rate (lower diagram); average last 12 months minus average
preceding 12 months, thin line) of atmospheric CO2 since 1959, according to data provided by the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA.
The thick, stippled line is the simple running 37-observation average, nearly corresponding to a running 3 yr average.

The phase relation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature, updated to November 201412-month change of global atmospheric CO2 concentration (Mauna Loa; green), global sea surface temperature (HadSST3; blue) andglobal surface air temperature (HadCRUT4; red dotted). All graphs are showing monthly values of DIFF12, the difference between the
average of the last 12 month and the average for the previous 12 months for each data series.

34

References:
Humlum, O., Stordahl, K. and Solheim, J-E. 2012. The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide andglobal temperature. Global and Planetary Change, August 30, 2012.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658?v=s5

Global surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2, updated to December 2014

35

36

Diagrams showing HadCRUT3, GISS, and NCDC monthly global surface air temperature estimates (blue) and the monthly
atmospheric CO2 content (red) according to the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The Mauna Loa data series begins inMarch 1958, and 1958 was therefore chosen as starting year for the diagrams. Reconstructions of past atmospheric CO 2
concentrations (before 1958) are not incorporated in this diagram, as such past CO 2 values are derived by other means (icecores, stomata, or older measurements using different methodology), and therefore are not directly comparable withdirect atmospheric measurements. The dotted grey line indicates the approximate linear temperature trend, and the boxesin the lower part of the diagram indicate the relation between atmospheric CO 2 and global surface air temperature,negative or positive. Please note that the HadCRUT4 diagram is not yet updated beyond November 2014.

Most climate models assume the greenhouse gas
carbon dioxide CO2 to influence significantly upon
global temperature. It is therefore relevant tocompare different temperature records withmeasurements of atmospheric CO2, as shown in the
diagrams above. Any comparison, however, should
not be made on a monthly or annual basis, but fora longer time period, as other effects(oceanographic, etc.) may well override thepotential influence of CO2 on short time scales suchas just a few years. It is of cause equally
inappropriate to present new meteorologicalrecord values, whether daily, monthly or annual, as
support for the hypothesis ascribing highimportance of atmospheric CO2 for global

temperatures. Any such meteorological record
value may well be the result of other phenomena.
What exactly defines the critical length of a
relevant time period to consider for evaluating thealleged importance of CO2 remains elusive, and is
still a topic for discussion. However, the critical
period length must be inversely proportional to thetemperature sensitivity of CO2, including feedback
effects. If the net temperature effect of
atmospheric CO2 is strong, the critical time period
will be short, and vice versa.
However, past climate research history provides
some clues as to what has traditionally been
considered the relevant length of period over

which to compare temperature and atmosphericCO2. After about 10 years of concurrent global
temperature- and CO2-increase, IPCC wasestablished in 1988. For obtaining public andpolitical support for the CO2-hyphotesis the 10 year
warming period leading up to 1988 in all likelihood
was important. Had the global temperature instead
been decreasing, politic support for the hypothesis
would have been difficult to obtain.
Based on the previous 10 years of concurrent
temperature- and CO2-increase, many climate
scientists in 1988 presumably felt that their37

understanding of climate dynamics was sufficient
to conclude about the importance of CO2 for global
temperature changes. From this it may safely beconcluded that 10 years was considered a period
long enough to demonstrate the effect ofincreasing
atmosphericCO2
onglobaltemperatures.
Adopting this approach as to critical time length (atleast 10 years), the varying relation (positive or
negative) between global temperature andatmospheric CO2 has been indicated in the lower
panels of the diagrams above.

Last 20 year monthly surface air temperature changes, updated to November 201438

Last 20 years global monthly average surface air temperature according to Hadley CRUT, a cooperative effort between the
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), UK.
The thin blue line represents the monthly values. The thick red line is the linear fit, with 95% confidence intervals indicatedby the two thin red lines. The thick green line represents a 5-degree polynomial fit, with 95% confidence intervals indicatedby the two thin green lines. A few key statistics is given in the lower part of the diagram (note that the linear trend is themonthly trend). Please note that the linear regression is done by month, not year.

It is quite often debated if the global surface airtemperature still increases, or if the temperature
has levelled out during the last 15-18 years. The
above diagram may be useful in this context, anddemonstrates the differences between two often
used statistical approaches to determine recent
temperature trends. Please also note that such fits
only attempt to describe the past, and usually have
limited predictive power. In addition, before using
any linear trend (or other) analysis of time series aproper statistical model should be chosen, basedon statistical justification.

For temperature time series there is no a priori
physical reason why the long-term trend should be
linear in time. In fact, climatic time series often
have trends for which a straight line is not a good
approximation, as can clearly be seen from severalof the diagrams in the present report.
For an excellent description of problems often
encountered by analyses of temperature timeseries analyses please see Keenan, D.J. 2014:
Statistical Analyses of Surface Temperatures in the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

Climate and history; one example among many

1845-1848: The Franklin Expedition to the Northwest Passage

39
Satellite picture showing the central parts of the Northwest Passage, as it was known in 1845, when the
Franklin Expedition sailed. Direction of view is towards northeast. The yellow dot shows where Erebus andTerror were beset 1846. The red dot shows where they were abandoned April 1848. King Williams Island is seen
shortly southeast of the red dot. Greenland is seen in the far distance near the horizon. Picture source: Google
Earth.

In September 1843 James Clark Ross returned
triumphantly with HMS Erebus and HMS Terror
from a brilliant three-year voyage of exploration in
Antarctic seas, during which the Ross Sea and theRoss Ice Shelf were discovered and named. Theirarrival offered Sir John Barrow, 1st Baronet andsecond secretary to the Admiralty in London, a lastopportunity, before his retirement in 1845 aged
eighty, to mount the decisive expedition to find theNorthwest Passage.
The Royal British Navy therefore decided to send awell-equipped Arctic expedition to complete thecharting of the Northwest Passage. After Sir James

Ross declined an offer to command the expedition
because of his age (45), an invitation was extended
to Sir John Franklin, who accepted despite his age(59). Sir John had previous experience from the
Arctic, and had mapped a significant part of thenorthern coastline of Canada. In 1819-22 he led adisastrous overland expedition into the Northwest
Territories of Canada along the Coppermine River,losing 11 of the 20 men in his party from starvation.
The new British expedition with John Franklin incommand was ordered to gather magnetic data in
the Canadian Arctic and to complete a crossing of
the Northwest Passage, which by then had already40

been partly charted from both the east and west,
but had never been entirely navigated.

while Captain Francis Crozier was named executive
commander and commander of HMS Terror.

The expedition was provided with the two sturdy
navy ships, HMS Erebus and HMS Terror, justreturned from their Antarctic journey. Both ships
were built as so-called bomb vessels. Bomb vessels
were strongly built in order to withstand theenormous recoil of their 3 ton mortars, and thismade them suited to Arctic service. Both ships
were equipped with converted railway twentyhorsepower steam engines that enabled the ships
to make 4 knots on their own power, and also
provided a novel heating device for the comfort ofthe crew. In addition, a mechanism that enabled
the iron rudder and propeller to be drawn into ironwells to protect them from damage when in thickice. Iron plating was added to their hulls. The
expedition brought three years preserved or tinned
preserved food supplies with them. The quality of
the canned soups and meat have since been reason
for concern, and may have contributed to the sadoutcome of the expedition. Captain James
Fitzjames, was given command of HMS Erebus

Being well acquainted with Erebus and Terror fromhis Antarctic expedition, James Ross thought thatthe two ships were too big for the planned
operation, and was convinced the expedition would
fail. No one, and least of all Franklin himself,
listened to Ross.
The Franklin Expedition set sail May 19, 1845, witha crew of 24 officers and 110 men. The ships firsttravelled north to Aberdeen for additional supplies.
From Scotland, the then ships sailed to West
Greenland. After initially misjudging the location of
the small town Godhavn (Qeqertarssuag), Disko
Island, central West Greenland, the expedition
turned back and finally harboured at Godhavn toprepare for the rest of their voyage. Five crew
members were sent home on two accompanying
ships, reducing the final expedition crew size to129. The expedition was last seen by Europeans on
July 26, 1845, when the Peterhead whaler
Enterprise encountered Terror and Erebus mooredto an iceberg in Melville Bay.

Sir John Franklin (left). The note found by McClintock in May 1859 in a cairn south of Back Bay, King William
Island, describing the fate of the Franklin Expedition until April 1848 (centre left). Relics of Franklin's expedition
brought back by John Rae in 1854 (centre right). Captain Crozier of the Terror, Franklin's second in command(right).

The remaining part of the summer 1845 was used
exploring the Wellington Channel northwest of
Devon Island. The Wellington channel was found tobe blocked by thick, old ice. Late September 1845
the expedition found a safe winter harbor on thesouth coast of Beechey Island. The following
summer 1846 the expedition sailed south west of
Summerset Island, towards King William Island (atthat time believed to represent an peninsula
extending from south), to explore the southern of
the two alleged channels which were supposed torepresent the final leg of the Northwest Passage.

41

Presumably John Franklin was aware of thecontemporary notion of the sea east of King
Williams Island being a closed bay, wherefore hedecided to force his way through thick ice along thewest coast of King Williams Island. This proved to
be a fatal misjudgment, as this region usually iscovered with multiyear sea ice, transported by theprevailing wind down the McClintock Channel, andtherefore in a continuous state of compression.
During the Little Ice Age the ice conditions most
likely were worse than is typically seen today. Had
Franklin instead sailed east of King Williams Island,
which in reality is not a closed bay and only
covered by seasonal ice (as observed by John Rae in1854), he might well have been successful innavigating the entire Northwest Passage.
Terror and Erebus were rapidly beset in the thickice in the southern part of McClintock Channel.
Their twenty-horsepower steam engines were nomatch for meter-thick sea ice. Not surprisingly, themultiyear ice did not melt the following summer
1847, and both ships had to be abandoned in April
1848. Sir John Franklin himself died in June 1847. A
desperate attempt to walk and sail to safety in thesouth with smaller boats was attempted, but invain. No members of the expedition survived.
A number of rescue expeditions were organized.
The German geographer August Petermann in 1852
proposed that a search expedition should be send
northwards through 'the wide opening' between
Spitsbergen and Novaya Zemlya which 'probably
offers the easiest and most advantageous entrance
into the open, navigable Polar Sea, and perhaps thebest route for the search after Sir John Franklin'(Brown 1858).
In 1854, the Hudson's Bay Company doctor John
Rae became the first to collect evidence andinformation from local Inuit’s pointing to the fateof the Franklin expedition. Most rescue expeditions
were searching elsewhere than the region near
King Williams Island, as it was not believed that thelost navigators would be found anywhere near thecoast of the continent. It was reasoned that if
Franklin’s ships had iced up anywhere near thewestern shore of Boothia Peninsula and had to beabandoned, the crews would certainly havefollowed the example of Sir John Ross and Sir
James Ross in 1832 and would have retreated
toward Fury Beach on the east coast of Somerset
Island. There, where Sir Edward Parry had wrecked
MHS Fury in 1825, they would not only have founda large depot of provisions and fuel, but would also
have been in a position to attract the attention of
whaling ships, just as John and James Ross haddone previously. Furthermore, to travel south witha view to reaching some tiny Hudson’s Bay
Company fur-trading outpost would involve a much
longer journey with a far smaller chance of success.
Captain Leopold McClintock commanded one of
the rescue expeditions and later in a bookpublished about his voyage wrote (McGoogan
2001):Had Sir John Franklin known that a channel existed
eastward of King William Land (so named by Sir
John Ross), I do not think he would have risked thebesetment of his ships in such very heavy ice to thewestward of it; but had he attempted thenorthwest passage by the eastern route, he would
probably have carried his ships safely through to
Behring’s Straits. But Franklin was furnished withcharts which indicated no passage to the eastwardof King William’s Land, and made that land (since
discovered by Rae to be an island) a peninsula
attached to the continent of North America; and heconsequently had but one course open to him, andthat the one he adopted.

In many respects John Rae can be said to havediscovered the final link in the only Northwest
Passage navigable by nineteenth-century ships. The
final link in the passage therefore rightfully carries
his name: Rae Strait. Half a century later, when

Roald Amundsen in 1903-06 became the first to
navigate the entire Northwest Passage, he did so
by sailing his small 47-ton ship called the Gjøa
through the channel discovered by John Rae in
1854.

References:
Brown, J. 1858. The North-West Passage, and the Plans for the Search for Sir John Franklin. A Review. London:
E. Stanford.
McGoogan, K. 2002. Fatal Passage. The untold story of Scotsman John Rae, the Arctic adventurer who
discovered the fate of Franklin. Bantam Books, London, 328 pp.

*****

42

All the above diagrams with supplementary information, including links to data sources and previous
issues of this newsletter, are available on www.climate4you.com

Yours sincerely,
Ole Humlum (Ole.Humlum@geo.uio.no)
January 20, 2015.