August 2018604-170 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, Ontario
K1P 5V5613-233-8891
csls@csls.ca

CENTRE FOR
THE STUDY
OF LIVING
STANDARDS

Economic Projections for Canada and theProvinces 2017-2038: An Update

Andrew Sharpe and Cristina Blanco Iglesias

CSLS Research Report 2018-05
August 2018

Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces,
2017-2038: An Update
Table of Contents
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 2
List of Charts................................................................................................................................... 2
I. Updating of CSLS Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces for 2017-2038 .......... 3
Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 3
CSLS Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces for 2017-2038 ................................ 10
II. Comparison of CSLS Projections for Canada and Ontario: 2017-2038 versus 2014-2038 ..... 14
Changes to Projections for Canada.............................................................................................. 14
Changes to Projections for Ontario.............................................................................................. 15
III. Comparison of CSLS Projections for Canada and Ontario: 2017-2040 with Other Forecasters....................................................................................................................................................... 17
Projections for Canada ................................................................................................................ 17
Comparisons for Ontario .............................................................................................................. 22
IV. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 25
References ..................................................................................................................................... 28
Appendix Tables ........................................................................................................................... 28

1

Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces,
2017-2038: An Update
List of Tables
Table 1: Summary of the Assumptions Behind the CSLS Projections for Economic
Growth .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Table 2: Long-term Growth in Hours Worked, Labour Productivity and Real GDP Canada
and the Provinces, 2000-2017 and 2017-2038 (compound annual per cent growth rates) ........... 12
Table 3: Long-term Growth in Real GDP, the GDP Deflator, and Nominal GDP, Canada
and the Provinces, 2000-2017 and 2017-2038 (compound annual per cent growth rates) ........... 13
Table 4: Comparison of CSLS Projections for the 2014-2038 and 2017-2038 Periods for
Canada and Ontario....................................................................................................................... 16
Table 5:Comparison of Economic Projections for Canada, 2017-2040 ....................................... 18
Table 6: Finance Canada Real GDP Growth Projection, Average Annual Growth Rates Per
cent, unless otherwise indicated .................................................................................................... 19
Table 7: Summary of Parliamentary Budget Office Economic Projection for Canada. ............... 20
Table 8: Comparison of Economic Projections for Ontario, 2017-2040 ...................................... 22
Appendix Table 1: Working Age Population ............................................................................... 28
Appendix Table 2: Labour Force Participation Rate .................................................................... 29
Appendix Table 3: Average hours worked ................................................................................... 29
Appendix Table 4: Total Hours Worked (all jobs) LFS average hours based .............................. 30
Appendix Table 5: Labour Productivity. ...................................................................................... 30
Appendix Table 6: Real GDP by Province ................................................................................... 31
Appendix Table 7: GDP Deflator ................................................................................................. 31
Appendix Table 8: Nominal GDP................................................................................................. 32
Appendix Table 9A: LFPR (15-24) .............................................................................................. 33
Appendix Table 9B: LFPR (25-54) .............................................................................................. 33
Appendix Table 9C: LFPR (55+) ................................................................................................. 34
Appendix Table 10A: Average hours worked (LFS) .................................................................... 34
Appendix Table 10B: Average hours worked all jobs (CPA) by business sector industry .......... 35
Appendix Table 11: Total Hours Worked (CPA based) All Jobs ................................................. 35

List of Charts
Chart 1: Participation Rates by Age Group, Canada, Per Cent, 1976-2038 ................................... 6
Chart 2: Participation Rates by Sex for Prime-age Workers (25-54), Canada, Per Cent,
1976-2017 ....................................................................................................................................... 6
Chart 3: Shares of the Working Age Population by Age Group, Canada, Per Cent, 19762038................................................................................................................................................. 7
Chart 4: The Effect of the Age Structure on the Overall Participation Rate, Canada, Per
Cent, 1976-2038 .............................................................................................................................. 8
Chart 5: Average Hours Worked per Worker by Age Group, Weekly Hours, Canada, 19762038................................................................................................................................................. 92

Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces,
2017-2038: An Update 1
In 2015, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) prepared the report “Longterm Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038,”(Drummond and Capeluck, 2015) for the Council of the Federation. The objective of this reportis to update the 2015 study for Canada and the provinces with new data from 2015, 2016 and2017.
The report consists of four main sections. The first section presents new economic
projections for Canada and the provinces for the 2017-2038 period.2 This section includes
discussion of the methodology behind the projections. The second section compares the updated
projections for Canada and Ontario, given the current contemplation of economic and fiscal
outlooks in this province, with the projections from the 2015 report for 2014-2038. The third
section compares the CSLS projections for Canada and Ontario for the 2017-2040 period withprojections from other forecasts. The fourth and final section summarizes the findings andconcludes.

I. Updating of CSLS Economic Projections for Canada and the Provincesfor 2017-2038
Methodology
The CSLS projections are based on a supply-side methodology where potential real
output growth is determined by trend labour productivity growth and potential labour supply
growth, expressed in terms of total hours. This latter variable is in turn affected by the working
age population growth, participation rate growth, and changes in average weekly hours. All
figures are for the total economy. The forecast can be considered judgmental, and is not
econometric based. The figures come from a deliberation by the forecasters that is grounded inboth historical trends, and an analysis of likely developments. The forecasts for all variables
come from the CSLS, with the exception of the population projections which are taken from
Statistics Canada.
Real GDP growth can be decomposed into two components: 1) labour productivity
growth (that is, growth in real GDP per hour worked); and 2) growth in total hours worked. The
relationship is represented by the following equation:

1

This report was written by CSLS Executive Director Andrew Sharpe and CSLS Economist Cristina Blanco Iglesias,with assistance from Nicholas Mask. The authors would like to thank Don Drummond for comments. Email:andrew.sharpe@csls.ca.
2
The 2017-2038 period uses 2017 as the base for compound growth rate calculations. This means that growth from2017 to 2018 is included in the total period growth rate.

3

where is real GDP,
is total hours worked, andis labour productivity. Therefore, toproject real GDP growth, we develop projections for the future advance of total hours worked
and labour productivity growth. Growth in total hours work can be further decomposed into
employment growth and growth in average hours worked:

where
is average hours worked and is employment. Thus, to project growth in total hours
worked, we make separate projections for the future paths of employment and average hours
worked. We start by projecting labour force growth, since employment tends to grow in line withthe supply of labour over the long run.3 The projections for labour force growth are based on
separate projections for working age population growth and growth in the labour force
participation rate. The relationship between labour force growth, working age population growthand growth in the participation rate is represented by the following equation:

where is the labour force,is the participation rate.

is the working age population (aged 15 years and over), andWorking Age Population
To project growth in the working age population, we rely on Statistics Canada’s official
population projections for the 2017-2038 period. In particular, we employ the medium (M1)
scenario projection, which is based on demographic trends observed over the 1991-2011 period.4
At the national level, this scenario projects working age population growth of 0.87 per cent per
year between 2017 and 2038.5For Ontario the figure is 0.82 per cent, slightly below the national
3

This is based on the assumption that the unemployment rate will remain fixed at its 2016 level. The relationship between
growth in the participation, employment and unemployment rates is as follows:

whereis the participation rate,is the employment rate, andis the unemployment rate. Note that in 2017, theunemployment rate was thought to be roughly at the equilibrium level (no cyclical component in the unemployment rate).
Hence, on average, the rate observed in 2017 is likely to remain constant over the long-term assuming no dramatic
structural change in the Canadian economy.
4
The medium (M1) scenario is based on the following assumptions: interprovincial migration trends observed over the
1991-2011 period will persist in 2017-2038; the total fertility rate reaches 1.67 births per woman in 2021 and then remains
constant; life expectancy reaches 89.1 years for females and 87.5 years for males in 2062; and the net international
immigration rate reaches 0.56 per cent in 2022 and then remains constant. Refer to Drummond and Capeluck (2015);
Appendix Table 8 for more information. Appendix Table 8 decomposes projected population growth by province andterritory into the following components: natural increase, net international migration, and net interprovincial migration.
5
Drummond and Capeluck (2015) provide a sensitivity analysis with alternative population growth projections for the
2014-2038 – namely, the high- and low-growth scenarios. The high-growth scenario projects working age population
growth of 1.2 per cent per year for the 2014-2038 period, while the low-growth scenario projects working age population
growth of 0.7 per cent per year. As the working age population projection changed little between the 2014-2038 and 20172038 periods, this analysis is still relevant.

4

projection. It is interesting to note that Ontario’s working age population growth was slightly
above the national figure in the 2000-2017 period (1.41 per cent versus 1.28 per cent). See Table
1 in the Appendix to this report. The reversal of Ontario’s growth advantage historically to ashortfall relative to Canada over the forecast period appears to reflect the falling share of Ontario
in total immigration to Canada.
Labour Force Participation
The assumptions underlying the future path of participation rates are somewhat more
complex.6 As previously mentioned, the projections for total hours worked are based on separate
projections for growth in the size of the labour force (which, in turn, are based on population
projections and assumptions regarding the future path of participation rates) and for growth inaverage hours worked.
To project overall labour force growth, the labour force is broken down into three agegroups: young workers (aged 15-24 years), prime-age workers (aged 25-54 years), and older
workers (aged 55+ years). To project growth in the labour force, we made a series ofassumptions regarding the future path of participation rates by age group and applied theseparticipation rates to the official population projections from Statistics Canada. It is important tonote that the participation rates and average hours worked estimates used to construct the
projections for labour force growth are taken from the LFS (Labour Force Survey).7
In particular, we made separate assumptions for the future growth in the participation rateof each age group at the national level and applied these growth rates to the prevailing
participation rates of each age group at the provincial level. In other words, future trends inparticipation rates by age group in each province were assumed to be the same as trends inparticipation rates by age group for Canada as a whole. The different assumptions for the three
age groups are briefly outlined below.
Chart 1 illustrates the underlying assumptions concerning the future path of participation
rates in Canada for the three age groups. The participation rate for the young age group appears
to be largely cyclically-driven, falling during economic slowdowns (such as the early 1990s andlate 2000s) and rising again in more prosperous periods. However, we expect the participation
rate for the young age group to continue its recent decline due to the increased emphasis on
educational attainment and deteriorating prospects for low-skill workers. In particular, we
assume that the participation rate for the young age group will decline in 2017-2038 at the samepace as in 2000-2017 (that is, -0.04 per cent per year). This means that the participation rate of
the young age group will exhibit an average annual decrease of 0.04 per cent per year in all of
the provinces.

6

The population is divided into three age groups (15-24 years, 25-54 years, and 55+ years) to project growth in total hours
worked. Different assumptions concerning growth in average hours worked and the evolution of participation rates are
made for each group. This methodology is discussed in more detail later in this section.
7
In contrast, to calculate labour productivity growth, we use hours worked data from the CPA (Canadian Productivity
Accounts) as these estimates are more appropriate for estimating labour productivity growth than hours worked data fromthe LFS. However, we had to use hours worked data from the LFS to project growth in average hours worked by age
group, as hours worked data from the CPA are not available by age group.

5Chart 1: Participation Rates by Age Group, Canada, Per Cent, 1976-2038
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038

20.0
15+

15-24

25-54

55+

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087 and CSLS calculations

Chart 2: Participation Rates by Sex for Prime-age Workers (25-54), Canada, Per Cent,
1976-2017
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0

Both sexes

Males

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

50.0
Females

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087

The participation rate for the prime-age age group is expected to remain constant over the
projection period, as the historical gains in the participation rate for this group, which were
driven by an increase in the participation of women in the labour market, appear to have been
fully realized in the mid-2000s. More specifically, the participation rate for prime-age age groupis assumed to remain at its 2017 level over the 2017-2038 period (Chart 1). Therefore, we
assume that the participation rate for the prime-age age group will experience no change in all of
the provinces.88

We recognize that with an 8 percentage point gap between the prime age the female and male participation rates
there is the possibility that the female rates may converge toward the male rate, especially given the priority thefederal government has given to greater inclusion of women in the workforce. However, the male-female
participation rate gap stopped falling in 2010 and we assume this post-2010 pattern of a stable gap continues. In any
case. continued convergence would have only a small effect on future labour force growth. The lowest prime-age
male-female participation rate gap in the world is in Slovenia at 3.1 percentage points in 2015. Canada’s gap thatyear was 8.7 points. A reduction in Canada’s gap by 5.6 points by 2038 to the level of the Slovenia would only boost
overall labour force growth by 0.09 percentage points per year.

6The participation rate for the older age group is assumed to increase over time, but at adiminishing rate, driven by changes to pension systems and increases in average life expectancy,
among other factors. The projection for the older age group is based on an equation for a trendline for the national participation rate of the older age group in 2000-2017.9 In every province,
the participation rate for the older age group is projected to increase at an average annual rate of
0.46 per cent in 2017-2038, down from 2.33 per cent over the 2000-2017 period.
Even though we expect relatively stable participation rates for young and prime-age agegroups and an increase in the participation rate of the older age group, the overall participation
rate is expected to decline over the 2017-2038 period (-0.07 per cent per year), driven bycompositional changes in the labour force (Chart 3). In particular, the share of the older age
group in the working age population is expected to increase markedly from 36.4 per cent in 2017
to 42.1 per cent in 2038, while the shares of the younger and prime-age age groups are expected
to decline from 14.5 to 13.7 per cent and from 49.1 to 44.1 per cent, respectively.
Chart 3: Shares of the Working Age Population by Age Group, Canada, Per Cent, 19762038
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0

1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038

10.0

15-24

25-54

55+

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087 and CSLS calculations

Chart 4 shows how the aggregate participation rate would evolve if the shares of theyoung, prime-age and older age groups in the working age population were fixed at their 2000
level. As expected, the aggregate participation rate would increase, driven by increases in theparticipation rate for the older age group. In particular, the participation rate would increase from65.8 per cent in 2000 to 69.9 per cent in 2017 to 70.8 per cent in 2038. However, after allowing
for changes in working age population shares, the participation rate stays at 65.8 per cent in 2000
and 2017, even though it increased to 66.0 per cent in 2014, and is expected to fall to 64.4 percent in 2038. It is important to note that more than half of the contribution of ageing to theevolution of the aggregate participation rate – as shown by the gap between the two series– had

9The equation for the trend line is as follows:
year andin 2000.

where

7

is the participation rate inalready taken place between 2000 and 2014. In fact, the gap between the two series was 4.1
percentage points in 2017, 64.8 per cent of the projected gap in 2038 (6.3 percentage points).
Chart 4: The Effect of the Age Structure on the Overall Participation Rate, Canada, Per
Cent, 1976-2038
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0

1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038

55.0

Actual and Projected Data (15+)

Fixed Weights (2000) (15+)

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087 and CSLS calculations

Average hours per worker
In order to determine the future growth in total hours worked, we projected growth inaverage hours worked by age group and applied them to the projections for labour force growthby age group. Growth in average hours worked by age group in each province was assumed to be
the same as the growth in average hours worked by age group exhibited at the national level. In
particular, average hours worked was assumed to vary in 2017-2038 at the same pace as in 19762017; that is, -0.50 per cent per year for the young age group, -0.12 per cent per year for theprime-age age group, and -0.22 per cent per year for the older age group. The sensitivity of the
projections to the choice of period for average hours worked growth is illustrated in the fifth
section. These assumptions are illustrated in Chart 5.
At the national level, growth in aggregate average hours worked is projected at -0.16 percent per year for the 2017-2038 period, driven by falling average hours worked for every age
group. This decline is expected to be driven by a continuation of the historical shift from fulltime to part-time work arrangements, which is in large part attributable to the evolution of theindustrial composition of the economy (i.e. the servicification of the economy).

8

Chart 5: Average Hours Worked per Worker by Age Group, Weekly Hours, Canada,
1976-2038
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0

1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038

20.0

15+

15-24

25-54

55+

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0018 and CSLS calculations

Labour productivity
Compared with projecting future developments in total hours worked, projecting thefuture pace of labour productivity growth is considerably more difficult. Therefore, in thebaseline projections, we assume that total economy labour productivity growth will be the sameas the historical growth rates for the jurisdiction observed for the 2000-2017 period. The 20002017 period was chosen to project economic growth for three reasons: 1) it is a fairly long
period; 2) it covers almost two complete business cycles, with one complete cycle in 2000-2007
and nine years of the current business cycle and; 3) it is believed that labour productivity trends
in the last 17 years will be more representative of future productivity developments than thoseover a longer historical period.
Labour productivity growth experienced since 2000 has been somewhat weaker thanexperienced in the 1980s and 1990s and over the 1981-2017 period (e.g. 0.98 per cent per year in
2000-2017 versus 1.20 per cent per year in 1981-2000 and 1.13 per cent per year in 1981-2017).
It is also important to note that labour productivity growth was calculated using total
economy (all industries) estimates of real GDP from the GDP by industry accounts for 20002017. In addition, the hours estimates used for these labour productivity calculations are total
economy estimates of hours worked from the Canadian Productivity Accounts (CPA) instead of
the Labour Force Survey (LFS), as the former generates more accurate estimates of labour
productivity growth.
Table 1 summarizes the assumptions and methodology behind the various components of
CSLS projections for economic growth. Provincial projections apply the historical national
growth rates for both the age-specific participation rates and age-specific trends in average hours,
combined with the projection changes in the provincial age structure. Provincial projections forworking age population growth are based on official Statistics Canada projections for the9

provinces. Projections for labour productivity for a province are assumed to be the same as
productivity growth in the province over the 2000-2017 period.
Table 1: Summary of the Assumptions Behind the CSLS Projections for Economic Growth
Variable
Assumption
We assume that total economy labour productivity growth will be theLaboursame as the historical growth rates by province observed over the 2000productivity
2017 period.
We assume that all of the provinces will experience GDP deflator growth
GDP deflatorof 2.0 per cent per year.
(inflation)
We employ the M1 scenario from Statistics Canada’s official population
Working age
projections for Canada and the provinces and territories.
population
We assume that average hours worked in every province will decline at
the same pace as at the national level in 1976-2017 (that is, -0.50 per cent
Average hours
for the 15-24 age group, -0.12 per cent for the 25-54 age group, and -0.22
workedper cent for the 55+ age group).
We assume that, in every province, the participation rate for the 15-24
age group will decline at the same pace as at the national level in 20002017 (-0.04 per cent); that the participation rate for the 25-54 age group
Participation rates
will remain at its 2017 level; and that the participation rate for the 55+
age group will increase over time, but at a diminishing rate, based ontrends observed at the national level in 2000-2017.
Source: Updated from Drummond and Capeluck (2015)

CSLS Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces for 2017-2038
Table 2 presents estimates for the 2000-2017 period and projections for the 2017-2038
period for labour input growth (total hours), labour productivity growth, and real output growthin Canada and the provinces.10 Table 3 presents actual data and projections for nominal GDP
growth for Canada and the provinces for the 2000-2017 and 2017-2038 periods respectively.
These nominal GDP projections are based on the assumption that all of the provinces will
experience inflation (defined as growth in the GDP deflator) of 2.0 per cent per annum over the
2017-2038 period.11 We assumed an inflation rate of 2.0 per cent because this is the current
10

The projections for smaller and less diversified jurisdictions are much more uncertain than those for larger and morediversified jurisdictions. For example, the outlook for small, resource-dependent jurisdictions like Newfoundland andLabrador is greatly dependent on the performance of a small number of sectors (e.g. mining and oil and gas extraction) andeven projects. However, the projections for resource-dependent jurisdictions do not take into account the sectoralcomposition of the economy or the outlook for particular projects and sectors. The addition of a small number of natural
resource projects to such an economy may have significant implications for both labour productivity growth and labour
input growth.
11
See Drummond and Capeluck (2015) for a sensitivity analysis that uses historical inflation rates by province andterritory from the 2000-2014 period, which ranged from 1.8 per cent per year in British Columbia to 4.1 per cent per year
in Newfoundland and Labrador. For Ontario, the average growth of GDP deflator was 1.78 per cent over the period 20002014. As the average inflation experienced in Canada over the 2000-2017 period at 1.94 per cent, is not far from the 2.0
per cent assumption this analysis is still relevant. For more details see Appendix Table 7.

10

target rate of inflation agreed upon by the Bank of Canada and the Minister of Finance, and webelieve that this target will be maintained and broadly achieved until 2038.12
As the focus of this report is Canada, and to a lesser degree, Ontario historical trends andprojections for these two jurisdictions will be highlighted. Canada experienced real GDP growthof 2.01 per cent per year in the 2000-2017 period, with similar contributions from total hours(1.03 per cent) and labour productivity (0.97 per cent). Real GDP growth for Ontario was 1.81
per cent, 0.20 percentage points lower than for Canada, with growth in hours worked and labour
productivity 0.14 and 0.06 percentage point lower respectively.
In the 2017-2038 forecast period real GDP growth for Canada falls to 1.56 per centbecause of the fall in total hours growth due to slower working age population growth. Labour
productivity growth is assumed to be the same as in the 2000-2017 period. The same dynamic is
at play at the national level as real GDP for Ontario is projected to fall to 1.46 per cent, again due
to the fall in total hours growth. The relative relationships between Ontario and Canada persist,as Canada again has faster growth in real GDP, total hours, and labour productivity.

12

While the Bank of Canada targets a growth rate for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than a growth rate for the
GDP deflator, we believe that these two inflation measures will move in line with each other over much of the 2017-2038
period. In 2000-2017, growth in the GDP deflator was slightly higher than growth in the CPI at the national level (1.94 percent versus 1.86 per cent per year) due to increases in commodity prices. Note that, in theory, the GDP deflator increases
less rapidly than the CPI since the former is chain linked whereas the latter is fixed weighted (albeit with the weights
adjusted over time).

11

Table 2: Long-term Growth in Hours Worked, Labour Productivity and Real GDP
Canada and the Provinces, 2000-2017 and 2017-2038 (compound annual per cent growth
rates)
2000-2017
Hours
Worked2017-2038

LabourReal
Productivity GDP

Hours
WorkedLabourReal
Productivity GDP

1

2

3

4

5

6

Canada

1.03

0.97

2.01

0.59

0.97

1.56

Newfoundlandand Labrador

0.63

1.63

2.27

-1.08

1.63

0.54

Prince Edward
Island

0.67

1.07

1.75

0.55

1.07

1.63

Nova Scotia

0.20

1.04

1.24

-0.39

1.04

0.65

New
Brunswick

0.22

1.01

1.23

-0.37

1.01

0.64

Quebec

0.92

0.72

1.65

0.28

0.72

1.00

Ontario

0.89

0.91

1.81

0.55

0.91

1.46

Manitoba

0.69

1.55

2.25

0.81

1.55

2.37

Saskatchewan

0.79

1.18

1.98

0.47

1.18

1.66

Alberta

1.93

0.71

2.66

1.50

0.71

2.23

BritishColumbia

1.29

1.43

2.74

0.76

1.43

2.20

Note: Since real GDP at market prices estimates for 2017 are not yet available for the provinces we use preliminary
annual growth estimates from Statistics Canada to approximate real GDP at market prices for the provinces for2017. Contributions may not add due to rounding. Labour productivity is defined as real GDP per hour worked.
Source: Column 1: Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0480-01 (former CANSIM Table 383-0033 (CPA total hours
worked))Column 2: Calculated using columns 1 and 3.
Column 3: Statistics Canada. Table: 36-10-0104-01 (formerly CANSIM 380-0064; for Canada 2017); Table: 36-100222-01 (formerly CANSIM 384-0038; for 2000-2017); and Table: 36-10-0434-01 (formerly CANSIM 379-0031)
Columns 4-6: CSLS calculations based on Statistics Canada data

12

Table 3: Long-term Growth in Real GDP, the GDP Deflator, and Nominal GDP, Canada
and the Provinces, 2000-2017 and 2017-2038 (compound annual per cent growth rates)
2000-20172017-2038

Real GDP

GDP
Deflator

NominalGDP

Real GDP

GDP
Deflator

Nominal
GDP

1

2

3

4

5

6

Canada

2.01

1.94

3.99

1.56

2.00

3.59

Newfoundlandand Labrador

2.27

2.92

5.25

0.54

2.00

2.55

Prince Edward
Island

1.75

2.27

4.06

1.63

2.00

3.66

Nova Scotia

1.24

1.85

3.11

0.65

2.00

2.67

New
Brunswick

1.23

2.03

3.29

0.64

2.00

2.65

Quebec

1.65

1.86

3.54

1.00

2.00

3.02

Ontario

1.81

1.79

3.64

1.46

2.00

3.49

Manitoba

2.25

1.99

4.28

2.37

2.00

4.42

Saskatchewan

1.98

3.08

5.12

1.66

2.00

3.69

Alberta

2.66

2.30

5.02

2.23

2.00

4.27

BritishColumbia

2.74

1.67

4.46

2.20

2.00

4.24

Note: Since real and nominal GDP at market prices estimates for 2017 are not yet available we use preliminary
annual growth estimates from Statistics Canada and the National Bank of Canada to approximate real and nominal
GDP at market prices for the provinces for 2017. Contributions may not add due to rounding. Contributions may
not add due to rounding.
Source: Column 1-3: Statistics Canada. : Statistics Canada. Table: 36-10-0104-01 (formerly CANSIM 380-0064; for
Canada 2017); Table: 36-10-0222-01 (formerly CANSIM 384-0038; for 2000-2017); and Table: 36-10-0434-01(formerly CANSIM 379-0031)
Columns 4-6: CSLS calculations based on Statistics Canada data

13

II. Comparison of CSLS Projections for Canada and Ontario: 2017-2038
versus 2014-2038
The differences between projections for the 2017-2038 period and 2014-2038 periods for
Canada and Ontario are relatively small, but still important. This section of the report compares
these two sets of projections (Table 4) and the reasons for the differences. Appendix Tables 1-8
in the detailed tables accompanying this report provide estimates of the annual growth rates for
all variables in 2000-14, 2014-17 and 2000-2017 from actual data as well as the projections fromthe 2015 report for 2014-2038 and the new projections for 2017-2038 for all variables.
There are a number of reasons for changes in the projections between 2014-2038 and2017-2038. First, the addition of three years of data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 to the post-2000
historical period can change the historical trend between the 2000-2014 and 2000-2017 periods.
Second, data revisions to the 2000-2014 period may also have changed growth rates in 20002014, and hence contributed to differences between the 2000-2014 and 2000-2017 periods.
Third, the dropping of 2015, 2016 and 2017 from the projection period may have changed
growth rates between 2014-2038 and 2017-2038 for the working age population, which unlike
other variables, is based on a Statistics Canada projection and not the assumption related to theextrapolations of the historical period trends.

Changes to Projections for Canada
The CSLS projects real GDP in Canada to increase at an average annual rate of 1.56 percent over the 2017-2038 period, the same growth rate projected for the 2014-2038 period in the2015 study. As there has been no change in the assumption for the GDP deflator growth of 2.00
per cent per year, nominal GDP growth is also the same as previously projected.
While there is no difference in the real GDP growth in Canada in 2017-2038 relative to
2014-2038, there have been changes in the factors that determine real GDP, namely projections
for labour productivity and labour supply or total hours. This latter variable is in turn a functionof projections for working age population growth, participation growth, and average hours.
Table 4 shows the projections for these five variables for the 2014-2038 and 2017-2038
periods for Canada, with differences between periods. Contrary to the case for Ontario, Canada’s
projected annual labour productivity growth goes down by 0.02 percentage points. The
productivity projection for 2017-2038 for Canada is based on national historical productivity
growth in the 2000-2017 period given by the Canadian Productivity Accounts produced by
Statistics Canada, which was 0.97 per cent per year. This was down from 0.99 per cent in the
2000-2014 period that was used in the 2015 projection for the 2014-2038 period.
The reason for this 0.02 percentage point downward trend in productivity growth in
2000-2017 was weaker productivity growth from 2014 to 2017 (0.72 per cent annually)(Appendix Table 5).

14

The downward change in labour productivity growth for Canada was offset by faster
growth in total hours (0.03 percentage points per year, up to 0.59 per cent in 2000-2017 from0.56 per cent in 2000-2014). This development was a consequence of slower rates of decline inaverage hours (-0.18 per cent to -0.16 per cent) and the participation rate (-0.09 per cent to -0.07
per cent) being only partly offset by slower growth in working age population (0.88 per cent to0.86 per cent).

Changes to Projections for Ontario
This report projects real GDP in Ontario to advance at an average annual 1.46 per centover the 2017-2038 period, 0.04 percentage points higher than the 1.42 per cent growth rate
projected for the 2014-2038 period in the 2015 study. As there has been no change in theassumption for the GDP deflator growth of 2 per cent per year, nominal GDP growth is down by
a similar magnitude between the two forecast periods.13
This appears a trivial change but small differences in growth rates can result in large
differences through compounding over time. For example, at 1.46 per cent growth, the real GDP
level in 2038 will be 35.6 per cent higher than in 2017 and 0.84 per cent higher than a scenario
where the growth rate is 1.42 per cent. Ontario real GDP is estimated to be around $1,300 billion
2016 dollars in 2038 so a difference of 0.84 per cent is equivalent to $11 billion dollars just in2038. When this difference is accumulated over the total 2017-2038 period, the gain is muchgreater, around $108 billion 2016 dollars. Very small differences can indeed matter.
The 0.04 percentage points higher projection for real GDP growth in Ontario in 20172038 relative to 2014-2038 reflects developments in the factors that determine real GDP, namely
projections for labour productivity and labour supply or total hours. This latter variable is in turna function of projections for working age population growth, participation growth, and average
hours.

13

As an exponent function is used to apply the 2 per cent GDP deflator growth to real GDP levels, nominal GDP
growth rates are not exactly 2 percentage points higher than real GDP growth rates.

15

Table 4: Comparison of CSLS Projections for the 2014-2038 and 2017-2038 Periods for
Canada and Ontario (compound annual per cent growth rates)
Canada2014-2038

2017-2038

Period Change(percentage points)

1

3

4=3-1

1.56

1.56

-0.01

LabourProductivity

0.99

0.97

-0.03

Total Hours

0.56

0.59

0.03

Working-age
Population

0.88

0.86

-0.02

Participation
Rate

-0.09

-0.07

0.02

Average Hours

-0.18

-0.16

0.02

2014-2038

2017-2038

Period Change(percentage points)

1

2

3=2-1

1.42

1.46

0.04

LabourProductivity

0.88

0.91

0.03

Total Hours

0.53

0.55

0.02

Working-age
Population

0.85

0.82

-0.02

Participation
Rate

-0.09

-0.08

0.01

Average Hours

-0.18

-0.16

0.02

Real GDP

Ontario

Real GDP

Source: Column 1: 2014-2038 projections from Drummond and Capeluck (2015); Column 2: CSLS
projections based on Statistics Canada data
16

Table 4 shows the projections for these five variables for the 2014-2038 and 2017-2038
periods for Ontario, with differences between periods. It is higher projected labour productivity
growth that accounts for most of the increase in the real GDP growth projection. The
productivity projection for 2017-2038 for Ontario is based on the province’s historical
productivity growth in the 2000-2017 period given by the Canadian Productivity Accounts
produced by Statistics Canada, which was 0.91 per cent per year. This was up 0.03 percentage
points from 0.88 per cent in the 2000-2014 period that was used in the 2015 projection for the
2014-2038 period.
The increase in trend labour productivity growth between 2000-2014 and 2000-2017reflects the strong productivity performance in Ontario between 2014 and 2017 at 1.40 per centper year (Appendix 5). We hope that this three-year productivity growth rate is sustainable andthis certainly should be the objective of economic policy. But, more realistically, we believe thata long-term average growth rate, in this case 2000-2017, better reflect the likely future
productivity path of the Ontario economy.
The change in labour productivity was accompanied by faster growth in total hours (0.02
percentage points, up to 0.55 from 0.53) since slower growth in the working age population (0.85
to 0.82) was offset by a slower decline in participation rates (-0.09 to -0.08) and in average hours(-0.18 to -0.16).

III. Comparison of CSLS Projections for Canada and Ontario: 2017-2040
with Other Forecasters
This section compares the long-term CSLS projection for Canada and Ontario with thosefrom other forecasters. The first sub-section compares the CSLS projections for real output,
labour productivity and labour input for Canada with projections from Finance Canada, theParliamentary Budget Office and the Conference Board of Canada. The second section subsection provides a similar comparison of CSLS projections for Ontario. with projections done by
the Ontario Ministry of Finance, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, the Universityof Toronto, and the Conference Board of Canada.

Projections for Canada
Long-term projections for Canada are prepared by the Conference Board of Canada, theInstitute for Policy Analysis at the University of Toronto, and the Parliamentary Budget Office(Table 5). This section reviews these projections and compares them to those of the CSLS.

17

Table 5: Comparison of Economic Projections for Canada, 2017-2040
Conference Boardof Canada

Finance Canada

Parliamentary
Budget Office

CSLS

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

GDP Deflator

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Real GDP

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

LabourProductivity

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

Labour Supply

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

Nominal GDP

Note: For the Conference Board, the projections reported correspond to the arithmetic mean of the annual
growth projections from 2017 to 2040. For the case of Finance Canada, nominal GDP growth estimatescorrespond to the arithmetic mean of the annual growth projections reported for the periods 2022-23,
2025-26, 2030-31, 2035-36 and 2040-41, and all the other projections correspond to weighted averages ofthe projected annual rate of growth for the periods 2017-22, 2023-35, and 2036-55. For the Parliamentary
Budget Office, growth rates from the 2023-2091 were assumed to apply to the 2023-2040 sub-period.
Sources: Finance Canada (2017), PBO (2017), Conference Board (2017)

Conference Board of Canada
The Conference Board is projecting real GDP growth for Canada of 1.8 per cent per year
for the 2017-2040 period, slightly less than its projection for Ontario. It also projects labour force
growth of 0.7 per cent, implying labour productivity growth of 1.1 per cent.
Finance Canada
In December 2017 Finance Canada released an update on its long-term projections to2055 using the medium term forecast in the 2017 Fall Economic Statement as a starting point.
Table 6 shows the real GDP projections and the determinants. Real GDP growth is expected toadvance at an average rate of 1.8 per cent over the 2017-2055 period, down from 2.7 per cent in
1970-2016. Almost all of this fall is due to much slower labour supply growth, at 0.6 per cent,down more than 0.9 percentage point from 1.5 per cent in 1970-2017. In contrast, labour
productivity growth for the 2017-2055period is projected at 1.2 per cent, the same rate ofincrease as in 1970-2016.
The 0.9 percentage point decline in labour supply growth is largely accounted for by the
0.7 percentage point fall in working age population growth from 1.5 percent to 0.8 per centbetween 1970-2016 and 2017-2055. The 0.5 percentage fall in aggregate participation rate
growth from 0.3 per cent to -0.2 per cent also contributed to the slowing of the labour supply
18

growth. These two factors were offset by a slower pace of decline in average hours per worker, 0.0 per cent in 2017-2055 versus -0.2 per cent in the 1970-2016 period and the stability of theunemployment rate, which had fallen in 1970-2016.
Table 6: Finance Canada Real GDP Growth Projection, Average Annual Growth Rates
Per cent, unless otherwise indicated1970-20162017-2022
2023-2035
2036-2055
Real GDP

2.7

2.0

1.7

1.8

Labour Supply

1.5

0.7

0.4

0.6

Working-age
Population

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.7

Labour Force
Participation

0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

Unemployment Rate

-0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

Average Hours per
Worker

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

Labour Productivity

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.2

Contributions of(percentage points):

Note: Contributions may not add due to rounding.
Sources: Statistics Canada; Finance Canada (2017)
Parliamentary Budget Office
The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) made its most recent long-term forecast for the
Canadian economy in its 2017 Fiscal Sustainability Report in October 2017 (PBO, 2017). As
shown in Table 7, real GDP is projected to increase 1.9 per cent per year in 2017-2022 and 1.7
per cent per year in 2023-2091. Assuming that the second growth rate applies to the 2023-2040
sub-period, average growth for the 2017-2040 period is 1.7 per cent. One notes that this is close
to the Finance Canada forecast, and to the CSLS forecast.
The PBO projects labour input growth to increase 0.6 per cent per year in 2017-2022 and0.6 per cent per year in 2023-2091. Assuming that the second growth rate applies to the 20232040 sub-period, average growth for the 2017-2040 period is 0.6 per cent.
The PBO projects labour productivity growth to increase 1.3 per cent per year in 20172022 and 1.1 per cent per year in 2023-2091. Assuming that the second growth rate applies to the2023-2040 sub-period, average growth for the 2017-2040 period is 1.1 per cent.

19

Table 7: Summary of Parliamentary Budget Office Economic Projection for Canada,
Average Annual per cent Growth rates%

1982-20162017-2022

2023-2091

Real GDPLabour Input
Labour Productivity
Nominal GDP
CPI Inflation

2.4
1.2
1.1
5.0
2.6

1.9
0.6
1.3
4.0
2.1

1.7
0.6
1.1
3.7
2.0

Source: Statistics Canada and Parliamentary Budget Office (2017).

University of Toronto
According to the Ministry of Finance Long Term Survey of Economic Forecasts, theUniversity of Toronto is forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1 per cent per year for the 2017-2040
period, higher than the four forecasts in Table 5, whose maximum real growth rate forecast is 1.8
per cent. Unfortunately, no information is available on the split between employment and output
per worker growth. Based on the University of Toronto forecast for Ontario where labour
productivity accounted for 50 per cent of output growth and employment the other 50 per cent,labour productivity growth in Canada would be expected to be roughly the same as labour supply
growth at 1.05 per cent.
Global InsightGlobal Insight is forecasting real GDP growth of 2.0 per cent per year for Canada for the
2017-2040 period, again slightly higher than the other four forecasts in Table 5, whose maximum
real growth rate forecast is 1.8 per cent. Unfortunately, no information is available on the split
between employment and output per worker growth.
Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics is forecasting real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent per year for Canada forthe 2017-2040 period, similar to the forecasts from the Conference Board, the PBO, and the
Finance Canada. Unfortunately, no information is available on the split between employment andoutput per worker growth.

Comparison with CSLS projections
Table 5 compares the projections from Finance Canada, the Conference Board of Canada,
and the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for growth of nominal and real GDP, labour
productivity, and labour supply or input for Canada for the 2017-2040 period with those of the
CSLS. The first observation is that the disparity between the CSLS projections and those of theother forecasters is much smaller than for the Ontario projections. A second observation is thatfor the two organizations that have projections for both Ontario and Canada, namely the CSLS
and the Conference Board, the relative performances of the two jurisdictions are reversed. While20

the Conference Board projections of real output and labour productivity growth are higher for
Ontario than Canada, the CSLS estimates are slightly higher for Canada than Ontario. A thirdobservation is that while the CSLS real GDP and productivity projections for Canada are lower
than those of the other three forecasters, this is not the case for labour supply for two of theforecasters.
The Conference Board of Canada and Finance Canada both project annual real output
growth for Canada of 1.8 per cent for the 2017-2040 period whilethe PBO projects a slightly
lower real output growth of 1.7 for the same period. The CSLS is close behind at 1.6 per cent. In
contrast, the CSLS projection for real GDP growth for Ontario was well below those of the otherforecasters.
The slightly slower CSLS real output growth projection for Canada, relative to the threeother forecasters, reflects slower labour productivity growth. Finance Canada projects labour
productivity growth of 1.2 per cent for the 2017-2040 period. The Conference Board of Canada
and the PBO both project 1.1 per cent. The CSLS is close behind at 1.0 per cent.
Again the 0.1-0.2 percentage point lower CSLS labour productivity growth projection for
2017-2040 for Canada relative to other forecasters is based on the assumption that the actual rateof labour productivity growth in the 2000-2017 period, namely 1.0 per cent, will continue for the
next two and one half decades.
Productivity growth is notoriously difficult to forecast because of many factors,
especially technological shocks, and we recognize that there is consequently much uncertainty
associated with productivity forecasts. We provide three reasons to justify our assumption of thecontinuation of the 2000-2017 trend. First, forecasts have very frequently overestimatedproductivity growth in the past, and we want not to repeat that mistake. Second, we feel that the
productivity growth in 2000-2017 period will more accurately capture future productivity growththan productivity growth based on a longer period because trends before 2000 are less relevant to
the future. Third, like Gordon (2016), we are unconvinced that technological change over the
next quarter century will be as fundamental as in the pre-2000 period when General Purpose
Technologies (GPTs) such as electricity and ICT boosted productivity growth. A continuation of
the current trend seems the most realistic scenario. We do recognize that productivity growth isto some degree endogenous and that a sustained demand shock could raise productivity growth.
However, we discount the likelihood of such a development.
The CSLS projection for labour input growth for Canada for the 2017-2040 period at 0.6
per cent is identical to the estimates of two of the other forecasts, with Finance Canada and the
PBO both at 0.6 per cent and the Conference Board at 0.7 per cent. Note that, unlike otherforecasters, Finance Canada does take into account the downward trend in the average hours
worked over its projection horizon. They assume -0.1 annual change in the variable, which issmaller than our assumption of -0.16 annual change. It is interesting to note that the CSLS
forecast for labour input growth for Canada and Ontario are the same, while the other three otherforecasters all have lower labour input growth for Canada than for Ontario.

21

Table 8: Comparison of Economic Projections for Ontario, 2017-2040
Financial
Ontario
Conference
University of
Accountability
Finance
Board
TorontoOffice ofOntario
Nominal GDP

CSLS

4.2

4.0

4.2

3.9

3.5

GDP Deflator

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.0

Real GDP

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.6

LabourProductivity
Labour
SupplyNote: As many forecast are only to one decimal, all estimates in this section are only at one
decimal for consistency. Contributions may not add due to rounding. 2017-2040 CSLS estimates
are assumed to be the same as 2017-2038 estimates.
Source: Columns 1-4: Provided by the Economic and Revenue Forecasting and Analysis Branchof the Ministry of Finance.
Column 5: CSLS projections based on Statistics Canada data.

Comparisons for Ontario
In addition to the long-term projections for nominal and real GDP growth made for
Ontario made by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards in this report, projections to 2040
are made by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, Conference Board of Canada, the University ofToronto and the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (Table 8). Projections to 2027 aremade by the Centre for Spatial Economics.

Conference Board of Canada
The Conference Board of Canada (2018) projects nominal GDP growth of 4.0 per centper year for Ontario for the 2017-2040 period, well above the 3.5 per cent CSLS projection. As
both organizations assume that the GDP deflator will increase at 2.0 per cent per year, the 0.5
percentage point difference is due to differences in projections for real GDP growth (2.0 per
versus 1.5 per cent). This gap in real growth rates reflects differences in assumptions for bothlabour input and labour productivity growth.
The Conference Board projects that labour input, proxied by employment as no estimatesof total hours are given, will advance 0.9 per cent per year over the 2017-2040 period. This isconsiderably higher than the CSLS projection of 0.6 per cent for labour input. One reason for this22

difference is that the CSLS estimate is based on total hours which accounts for changes inaverage hours worked. As shown in Table 4 average hours are expected to fall 0.16 per cent per
year over the 2017-2038 period.
The Conference Board projection implies labour productivity growth (output per worker)
of 1.1 per cent for the 2017-2040. This projection of labour productivity comes out of a
production function approach to potential output involving estimates of total factor productivity
and capital accumulation. The labour productivity estimate is 0.2 percentage points higher thanthe CSLS Ontario labour productivity estimate of 0.9 per cents, which is a projection of
Ontario’s actual labour productivity growth from 2000 to 2017.
This robust labour productivity projection is driven by strong capital accumulation andmulti-factor productivity growth.14 Indeed, the Conference Board forecasts TFP to increase at 0.6
per cent over the 2017-2040 period, well above the performance in the 2000-2017. Indeed,
Statistics Canada reports that aggregate MFP in the Canada actually fell 0.2 per cent per year
between 2000 and 201615 (CANSIM Table 383-0021). Caution should be exercised however incomparing the Statistics Canada estimate with the Conference Board TFP forecast as the official
estimate is for the business sector, not the total economy, and is based on a different
methodology. Despite these differences, the contrast is stark.
University of Toronto
The projections for Ontario for the 2017-2040 done by the Institute for Policy Analysis at
Rotman School of the University of Toronto are similar to those of the Conference Board, withnominal GDP growth of 4.2 per cent for the 2017-2040 period, GDP deflator growth of 2.0 per
cent and real GDP growth of 2.2 per cent. The University of Toronto projectsthe samelabour
productivity growthas the Conference Board at 1.1 per cent, and slightly higherlabour input
growth at 1.1 per cent.16Again the U of T estimates for productivity and labour supply are higher
than the CSLS estimates.

Ontario Ministry of Finance
The report on the long-term economic prospects for Ontario released by the Ontario
Ministry of Finance in March 2017 is similar to that produced by the Conference Board fornominal output growth, the GDP deflator and real output. In the base case scenario, it projects
nominal GDP growth of 4.2 per cent, a GDP deflator growth of 2.2 per cent, and real GDP
growth of 2.0 per cent for the 2017-2040 period. The Ontario Ministry of Finance projects labour

14

Multifactor factor productivity, also known as total factor productivity is the increase in output not accounted forby the growth in labour and capital inputs. It is calculated at the rate of growth of real output minus the weighted
growth rate of inputs where the weights are the income shares of capital and labour.
15
CANSIM Table 383-0021 reports multifactor productivity, value-added, capital input and labour input in theaggregate business sector and major sub-sectors, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
16
They are less explicit about the assumption they make regarding the average hours worked. Like other forecasters,
they seem to implicitly assume that the variable does not continue its downward trend over time.

23

force growth of 0.8 per cent and labour productivity growth of 1.2 per cent.17 This productivity
growth assumption is based on the actual productivity growth for Ontario from 1982 to 2015.
The Ontario Ministry of Finance does recognize the uncertainty associated with its
productivity assumption and includes a high-productivity growth scenario with output per hour
averaging 1.6 per cent over the 2017-2040 period and a low productivity scenario at 0.8 per cent
growth. This latter scenario is consistent with the CSLS scenario.
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario
In their 2017 Fall Ontario Economic Outlook the Financial Accountability Office ofOntario reports long term projections of nominal and real GDP and labour supply almost
identical to those of the Conference Board, at 3.9 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 0.9 per centrespectively. This implies labour productivity growth of 1.1per cent over the 2017-2040 period.
Their real GDP estimates are also equivalent to those from The Ontario Ministry of Finance, but
0.5 percentage points higher than the CSLS projected real GDP.
Centre for the Study of Spatial Economics
The long-term projections from the Centre for Spatial Economics (CSE) only go to 2027
so cannot be compared with the projections for 2017-2040 from the other organizations. But it isinteresting to note that over the 2017-2025 period the CSE projections for nominal GDP, theGDP deflator, real GDP, and employment were very similar to those by the Conference Board,
the University of Toronto, and the Ontario Ministry of Finance. This may imply that over the2027-2040 period the same relationship would hold.
Comparison with CSLS projections
Table 8 summarizes the projections for growth of nominal and real GDP, GDP deflator,
labour productivity, and labour supply or input for Ontario for the 2017-2040 period. Aninteresting pattern emerges. The projections from the Ontario Ministry of Finance, the Universityof Toronto, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontarioand the Conference Board are
relatively similar while the CSLS projections are slightly lower, except for the GDP deflator.
The Ontario Ministry of Finance, the Conference Board, and the University of Toronto
all project nominal output growth of 4.0 per cent per year or more for the 2017-2040 period for
Ontario. In contrast, the CSLS projects only 3.5 per cent, a major difference of at least 0.5
percentage points. Since the GDP deflator growth across forecasters ranges in 1.8-2.2, thecontrast between the CSLS projected real output and the rest of forecasters also holds. The
highest projection for real output comes from the University of Toronto, with annual growth of
2.2 percentage points, followed by the Ontario Ministry of Finance, the Conference Board andthe Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, all with 2.0 per cent projections. Projecting
annual real output growth of 1.5 per cent, the CSLS estimate is the most conservative of all the17

In their public document presenting their long-term projections, there is no mention of how average hours worked
would develop over time. Hence, they too appear to assume no change in the average hours worked over the
projection horizon.

24

forecasters. Needless to say, the lower CSLS forecast has very important fiscal implications for
the Ontario government, which are beyond the scope of this report.
The slower CSLS real output growth projection for Ontario, relative to the three otherforecasters, reflects both slower labour input growth, and slower labour productivity growth,with the former stemmed from our assumption of falling average hours worked over time.
Most of the other forecasters do not appear to consider a scenario in which average hours
worked continues its well-established downward trend over time whereas we assume -0.16
annual change in the variable over the projection horizon. It seems that their forecasts are basedon the assumption that the average hours worked remains constant.
Labour productivity growth for the four forecasters is 1.1-1.2 per cent compared to only
0.9 per cent for the CSLS, labour input growth is 0.8-1.1 per cent compared to 0.6 per cent. The
0.2-0.3 percentage point lower CSLS labour productivity growth projection for 2017-2040 for
Ontario relative to other forecasters is based on the assumption that the actual rate of labour
productivity growth in the 2000-2017, namely 0.9 per cent, will continue for the next two andone half decades.
The reasons for the 0.2-0.5 percentage lower CSLS labour supply growth relative to thoseof the three other forecasters are more difficult to identify as data on the three drivers of labour
supply (working age population, labour force participation, and average hours worked) appear
not readily available from the three other forecasters. One likely factor is the inclusion of theaverage hours terms in the CSLS calculation of total labour input. Given the downward trend of
0.16 percentage points for average hours per worker projected for the 2017-2040 period by the
CSLS, based on the 1976-2017 historical trend, total hours worked will increase at a slower ratein the CSLS projection than in projections which do not have an average hours variable. Anotherpossible reason for the weaker CSLS labour supply growth may be that this projection is basedon a disaggregation of trends for participation rates and average hours worked into three agegroups and the use of projections of the future shares of these age groups in the total working age
population to calculate total labour supply growth.

IV. Conclusion
This report first updates the long-term economic projections for Canada and theprovinces made by Drummond and Capeluck (2015) with data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.18 The
report then discusses these projections for Canada and Ontario for the 2017-2038 period,
comparing them with the 2015 projections for the 2014-2038 period. It also compares the
projections for these jurisdictions with those of three other forecasters. The key findings of thereport are highlighted below.

18

An earlier update based on 2015 and 2016 data was produced in the fall of 2017. See Sharpe (2017).

25

As the basic methodology used in the study is unchanged from that used in the 2015
study, the updating of the projections based on three additional years of historical data
has little impact on the projections.



The CSLS currently projects real output growth of 1.6 per cent for Canada for the
2017-2038 period, based on labour productivity growth of 1.0 per cent and labour
input growth of 0.6 per cent.



For Ontario the CSLS projections are close to those for Canada. Real output growth isprojected to advance 1.5 per cent based on 0.9 per cent labour productivity growthand 0.6 per cent for labour input growth.



The CSLS real GDP projection for Canada for the 2017-2040 period of 1.6 per centper year is slightly less rosy than those of other forecasters. The Conference Board of
Canada, Finance Canada and the Parliamentary Budget office all forecast 1.7-1.8 real
output growth for Canada, 0.1-0.2 percentage points above the CSLS projection.



The lower CSLS real output projection for Canada compared to the other forecasters
is largely due to slower labour productivity growth (0.1-0.2 points below the otherforecasters). Two of the other forecasters had the same growth rate for labour supply(0.6 per cent) and the other was only 0.1 percentage point higher.



The CSLS real GDP projection for Canada for the 2017-2038 period was the same asthat for the 2014-2038 period, but there were changes in the projected growth of thefactors that determine real GDP, with projections for labour productivity annual
growth decreasing (0.02 percentage points) and total hours annual growth increasing(0.03 percentage points).



The CSLS real GDP projection for Ontario for the 2017-2040 period of 1.5 per centper year is considerably less rosy than those of other forecasters. The Conference
Board of Canada, the University of Toronto, the Ontario Ministry of Finance and the
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario all forecast 2.0-2.2 per cent real output
growth for the province, 0.5-0.7 percentage points above the CSLS projection.



The lower CSLS real output projection for Ontario compared to other forecasters isdue to both slower labour productivity growth (0.2-0.3 points below the otherforecasters) and slower labour supply growth (0.2-0.5 percentage points below theother forecasters).
26

The key conclusion of the report is that it is the productivity assumption that is ofparamount importance for economic projections. The CSLS is more pessimistic about theoutlook for labour productivity growth, and hence real output growth, for Ontario, and to a lesser
degree Canada, than other forecasters because it believes that the best guide to productivity
growth over the next quarter century is the productivity performance of the economy over the
recent past (2000-2017).

27

References
Conference Board of Canada (2017) “Provincial Outlook: Long-term Economic Forecast 2017”
Drummond, Don and Evan Capeluck (2015) “Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for
Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038,” CSLS Research Report 2015-08, July,
prepared for the Council of the Federation, http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2015-08.pdf
Finance Canada (2017) “Update of Long-term Economic and Fiscal Projections” December.
Gordon, Robert (2016) The Rise and Fall of American Growth: US Living Standards Since the
Civil War (Princeton University Press).
Ontario Ministry of Finance (2017) “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy,” March 1.
Parliamentary Budget Office (2017) “Fiscal Sustainability Report, 2017” October 5.

Appendix Tables
Appendix Table 1: Working Age Population (compound annual per cent growth rates)(00-17) –2014-2038
2014(00-14)
2038
1
2
3
4 = 3-1
6
5
Canada
1.33
1.05
1.28
-0.05
0.88
0.88
0.24
0.12
0.22
-0.02
-0.47
-0.47
NFLD
0.87
0.85
0.86
0.00
0.88
0.88
PEI
0.41
0.40
0.41
0.00
0.03
0.03
NS
0.28
0.16
0.26
-0.02
0.05
0.05
NB
1.04
0.63
0.96
-0.07
0.59
0.59
Quebec
ON
1.45
1.21
1.41
-0.04
0.85
0.85
0.95
1.24
1.00
0.05
1.03
1.03
MAN
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.00
0.71
0.71
SAS
2.55
1.47
2.36
-0.19
1.78
1.78
ALB
1.27
1.29
1.27
0.00
1.05
1.05
BC
Source: Column 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 282-0002
Column 5: CSLSreport, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Projections Column 6-7: CANSIM Table 052-0005 and CSLS calculations
00-14

14-17

00-17

28

2017-2038
7
0.86
-0.52
0.85
-0.01
0.02
0.58
0.82
1.03
0.72
1.77
1.02

(17-38) –(14-38)
8 = 7-5
-0.02
-0.05
-0.03
0.04
-0.03
-0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.01
-0.01
-0.03

Appendix Table 2: Labour Force Participation Rate (compound annual per cent growth
rates)LFPR (all)00-14 14-17 00-17 (00-17) -(00-14) 2014-2038 2017-2038 (17-38)-(14-38)
1
2
3
4=3-1
5
Canada 0.02 -0.12 0.00
-0.02
-0.09
0.68 -1.11 0.36
-0.32
-0.35
NFLD
0.20 -1.28 -0.07
-0.27
-0.07
PEI
0.18 -0.50 0.06
-0.12
-0.20
NS
0.18 -0.94 -0.01
-0.19
-0.20
NB
-0.02
-0.11
Quebec 0.18 0.09 0.16
ON
-0.13 -0.49 -0.19
-0.06
-0.09
-0.01
-0.30
-0.06
-0.05
-0.03
MAN
0.31 -0.29 0.20
-0.11
-0.03
SAS
0.05 -0.15 0.01
-0.04
-0.04
ALB
-0.17 1.05 0.05
0.22
-0.09
BC
Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0087
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation

6
-0.07
-0.36
-0.09
-0.17
-0.18
-0.09
-0.08
-0.01
-0.03
-0.04
-0.06

7=6-5
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.03

Appendix Table 3: Average hours worked (compound annual per cent growth rates)
Canada19762014

19762017(76-17)-(76-14)

00-14

14-17

00-17

(00-17) (00-14)

20142038

20172038(17-38) (14-38)

1

2

3=2-1

4

5

6

7=6-4

8

9

10=9-8

15-24

-0.56

-0.50

0.06

-0.53

0.16

-0.41

0.12

-0.56

-0.50

0.06

25-54

-0.14

-0.12

0.02

-0.40

0.22

-0.29

0.11

-0.14

-0.12

0.02

55+

-0.24

-0.22

0.02

-0.46

0.05

-0.37

0.09

-0.24

-0.22

0.02

-0.18

-0.16

0.02

-0.45

0.19

-0.34

0.11

-0.18

-0.16

0.02

(National
Averages)

Total
ages)

(all

Source: CANSIM Table 282-0018 and CSLS calculations

29

Appendix Table 4: Total Hours Worked (all jobs) LFS average hours based (compound
annual per cent growth rates)

00-14

14-17

00-17

(00-17)(00-14)

20142038

20172038

1

2

3

4=3-1

5

6

0.56
-1.09
0.58
-0.41
-0.40
0.24
0.53
0.78
0.44
1.49
0.73

0.59
-1.08
0.55
-0.39
-0.37
0.28
0.55
0.81
0.47
1.50
0.76

Canada
0.89
1.33
0.97
0.08
1.15
-2.27
0.54
-0.61
NFLD
0.82
-0.31
0.62
-0.20
PEI
0.23
-0.15
0.16
-0.07
NS
-0.02
0.83
0.13
0.15
NB
0.66
1.78
0.86
0.20
Quebec
ON
0.71
1.50
0.85
0.14
0.50
1.24
0.63
0.13
MAN
1.01
-0.52
0.74
-0.27
SAS
2.35
-0.45
1.85
-0.50
ALB
0.77
3.21
1.20
0.43
BC
Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0018
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation(1738)(14-38)
7=65
0.03
0.01
-0.03
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.03

Appendix Table 5: Labour Productivity (compound annual per cent growth rates)

00-14

CPA hours based
14-17 00-17 (00-17)-(00-14) (00-17)-(00-14)

00-14
Revised
1
2
3
4
5=4-2
6=4-1
Canada 0.99
1.02
0.72 0.97
-0.05
-0.02
1.66
1.17
3.39 1.63
0.46
-0.03
NFLD
1.01
0.99
2.61
1.07
0.09
0.06
PEI
1.11
0.98
1.63 1.04
0.06
-0.07
NS
1.16
1.07
1.30 1.01
-0.06
-0.15
NB
0.71
0.23 0.72
0.00
-0.24
Quebec 0.96
ON
0.88
0.84
1.40 0.91
0.07
0.03
1.54
1.46
1.26 1.55
0.08
0.01
MAN
1.42
1.05
1.38 1.18
0.13
-0.24
SAS
0.80
0.64
-0.13 0.71
0.07
-0.09
ALB
1.40
1.51
0.90 1.43
-0.09
0.03
BC
Source columns 2-4: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 383-0033 (CPA Total hours worked) andCANSIM table 282-0038 (Real GDP).
Column 1 & 7: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 8-9: Based on CSLS calculation30

Appendix Table 6: Real GDP, all industries (compound annual per cent growth rates)
00-14

00-14
Revised

1

2

14-17

00-17

(00-17)-(00-14)

3

4

5=4-1

2014-

2017-

2038

2038

6

7

(17-38)-(14-38)
8=7-6

0.00
Canada 2.03
2.05
1.80
2.01
-0.02
1.56
1.56
2.54
2.60
-0.61 2.27
-0.27
0.55
0.54
-0.01
NFLD
1.82
1.64
1.86
1.75
-0.07
1.60
1.63
0.03
PEI
1.40
1.27
1.12
1.24
-0.16
0.70
0.65
-0.05
NS
1.14
1.11
1.58
1.23
0.09
0.76
0.64
-0.12
NB
1.61
1.80
1.65
0.06
1.20
1.00
-0.20
Quebec 1.59
0.04
ON
1.67
1.61
2.77
1.81
0.14
1.42
1.46
2.17
2.27
2.05
2.25
0.08
2.33
2.37
0.04
MAN
2.35
2.31
0.22
1.98
-0.37
1.87
1.66
-0.21
SAS
3.21
3.43
-1.12 2.66
-0.55
2.30
2.23
-0.07
ALB
2.44
2.55
3.32
2.74
0.30
2.14
2.20
0.06
BC
Source columns 2 - 4: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 379-0030 (provincial) 379-0038(national)
Column 1 & 6: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 7-8: Based on CSLS calculation
Appendix Table 7: GDP Deflator (compound annual per cent growth rates)
00-14

Canada
NFLD
PEI
NS
NB
Quebec
ON
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC

1
2.21
3.74
2.30
1.83
2.02
1.86
1.82
2.13
4.21
3.44
1.69

14-17
2
0.70
-1.22
2.13
1.44
1.81
1.59
1.77
1.30
-1.57
-2.70
1.60

00-17

(00-17)(00-14)
4=3-1
-0.27
-0.82
-0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.03
-0.14
-1.13
-1.14
-0.02

3
1.94
2.92
2.27
1.85
2.03
1.86
1.79
1.99
3.08
2.30
1.67

Source columns 2 - 3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 384-0038
Column 1: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)31

Appendix Table 8: Nominal GDP (compound annual per cent growth rates)
Historical Provincial Rates(17(00-17)2014201700-14
14-17
00-17
38)(00-14)
2038
2038
(14-38)12
3
4 = 3-1
5
6
7
3.81
3.53
-0.28
Canada
4.28
2.53
3.99
-0.29
6.47
-0.48
5.25
-1.22
4.64
3.47
-1.17
NFLD
4.12
4.44
4.06
-0.06
3.89
3.94
0.05
PEI
3.14
2.58
3.11
-0.03
2.66
2.51
-0.15
NS
3.14
3.66
3.29
0.15
2.92
2.68
-0.24
NB
3.47
3.45
3.54
0.07
3.12
2.88
-0.24
Quebec
3.22
3.28
0.06
ON
3.46
4.59
3.64
0.18
4.41
3.48
4.28
-0.13
4.55
4.41
-0.14
MAN
6.63
-1.13
5.12
-1.51
6.12
4.79
-1.33
SAS
6.88
-3.58
5.02
-1.86
5.74
4.58
-1.16
ALB
4.24
5.28
4.46
0.22
3.95
3.90
-0.05
BC
Constant 2 per cent inflation
3.59
3.59
0.00
Canada
2.56
2.55
-0.01
NFLD
3.63
3.66
0.03
PEI
2.71
2.67
-0.04
NS
2.78
2.65
-0.13
NB
3.22
3.02
-0.20
Quebec
3.44
3.49
0.05
ON
4.38
4.42
0.04
MAN
3.90
3.69
-0.21
SAS
4.35
ALB
4.27
-0.08
4.18
4.24
0.06
BC
Source columns 1 - 3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 384-0038
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation of GDP deflator

32

Appendix Table 9A: LFPR (15-24) (compound annual per cent growth rates)

Canada
NFLD
PEI
NS
NB
Quebec
ON
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC

00-14

14-17

00-17

(00-17)(00-14)

20142038

20172038(17-38)(14-38)

1
-0.02
1.67
0.11
0.28
0.30
0.69
-0.47
-0.40
0.12
-0.33
0.03

2
-0.15
1.26
-0.54
-0.52
-0.93
-0.36
-0.64
-0.77
-0.87
-0.51
2.64

3
-0.04
1.60
0.00
0.14
0.07
0.51
-0.50
-0.46
-0.06
-0.36
0.49

4=3-1
-0.02
-0.07
-0.11
-0.14
-0.23
-0.18
-0.03
-0.06
-0.18
-0.03
0.46

5
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02

6
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04

7=6-5
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02

Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0087
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation
Appendix Table 9B: LFPR (25-54)(compound annual per cent growth rates)

Canada
NFLD
PEI
NS
NB
Quebec
ON
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC

00-14

14-17

00-17

(00-17)(00-14)

20142038

20172038

1

2

3

4=3-1

5

6

0.12
0.81
0.18
0.38
0.44
0.31
-0.01
-0.01
0.04
0.00
0.08

0.31
-0.35
-0.58
0.05
-0.11
0.81
-0.03
-0.11
0.06
0.21
0.89

0.15
0.71
-0.02
0.27
0.42
0.36
-0.02
-0.04
0.09
0.01
0.12

0.03
-0.10
-0.20
-0.11
-0.02
0.05
-0.01
-0.03
0.05
0.01
0.04

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0087
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation33(17-38)(14-38)
7=65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Appendix Table 9C: LFPR (55+)(compound annual per cent growth rates)
00-14
14-17
00-17
(00-17)20142017(00-14)
2038
2038
RevisedCanada
NFLD
PEI
NS
NB
Quebec
ON
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC

1

2

3

4=3-1

5

6

2.71
4.74
3.90
3.76
3.79
3.00
2.60
2.57
2.62
2.51
1.96

0.60
-1.88
-1.91
0.63
-0.32
0.62
0.16
0.61
-0.20
0.12
2.63

2.33
3.55
2.85
3.20
3.05
2.58
2.17
2.23
2.10
2.08
2.08

-0.38
-1.20
-1.05
-0.56
-0.74
-0.43
-0.44
-0.35
-0.50
-0.43
0.12

0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50

0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45

(1738)(14-38)
7=65
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05

Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0087
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation
Appendix Table 10A: Average hours worked (LFS) (compound annual per cent growth
rates)

00-14

14-17

00-17

(00-17)(00-14)

2014-2038(19762014
nationallevel)

1

2

3

4=3-1

5

6

7=6-5

-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18
-0.18

-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16
-0.16

0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02

Canada
-0.45
0.19
-0.34
0.11
-0.16
-0.21
-0.17
-0.01
NFLD
-0.36
-0.17
-0.32
-0.01
PEI
-0.37
-0.26
-0.35
0.02
NS
-0.48
0.93
-0.23
0.15
NB
-0.60
0.45
-0.42
0.18
Quebec
ON
-0.49
0.30
-0.35
0.14
-0.40
0.31
-0.28
0.12
MAN
-0.34
-0.32
-0.34
0.00
SAS
-0.26
-0.63
-0.33
-0.07
ALB
-0.41
0.51
-0.25
0.16
BC
Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM table 282-0018
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation34

2017-2038(19762017
nationallevel)(17-38)(14-38)

Appendix Table 10B: Average hours worked all jobs (CPA), all industries (compound
annual per cent growth rates)
00-14
14-17
00-17
(00-17)20142017(17-38)(00-14)
2038
2038
(14-38)(1997(19972014
2017
national
nationallevel)
level)
1
2
3
4=3-1
5
6
7 = 6 -5
Canada
-0.30
-0.16
-0.27
0.02
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
-0.09
-0.62
-0.18
-0.09
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
NFLD
-0.32
0.10
-0.25
0.07
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
PEI
-0.25
-0.57
-0.31
-0.06
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
NS
-0.31
0.59
-0.15
0.16
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
NB
-0.47
0.03
-0.38
0.09
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
Quebec
ON
-0.39
0.05
-0.31
0.08
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
-0.26
-0.06
-0.22
0.04
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
MAN
-0.07
-0.63
-0.17
-0.10
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
SAS
0.02
-0.83
-0.13
-0.15
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
ALB
-0.17
-0.20
-0.18
0.00
-0.32
-0.25
0.07
BC
Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 383-0033
Column 5: CSLS report, Drummond and Capeluck (2015)
Column 6: Based on CSLS calculation
Appendix Table 11: Total Hours Worked (CPA based) All Jobs (compound annual per
cent growth rates)
00-14
14-17
00-17
(00-17)(00-14)
1
2
3
4=3-1
Canada
1.02
1.09
1.03
0.01
1.32
-2.55
0.63
-0.69
NFLD
0.89
-0.34
0.67
-0.22
PEI
0.35
-0.50
0.20
-0.15
NS
0.16
0.51
0.22
0.06
NB
0.78
1.60
0.92
0.15
Quebec
ON
0.80
1.35
0.89
0.10
0.65
0.88
0.69
0.04
MAN
1.16
-0.92
0.79
-0.37
SAS
2.52
-0.77
1.93
-0.59
ALB
0.99
2.70
1.29
0.30
BC
Source columns 1-3: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 383-0033

35