The Contributionof Indigenous People
to Future Labour Force
Growth in Canada:
AN UPDATE
June 2023

Prepared by:Centre for the Study of Living Standards
Centre d’étude des niveaux de vie

About Indspire
Indspire is an Indigenous national registered charity that invests in the education of Indigenous
people for the long-term benefit of these individuals, their families and communities,
and Canada. With the support of its funding partners, Indspire disburses financial awards,
delivers programs and shares resources with the goal of improving educational outcomes
for First Nations, Inuit and Métis students. Through Indspire’s education offerings, we provide
resources to students, educators, communities and other stakeholders who are committed
to improving success for Indigenous youth. In 2021–2022, Indspire awarded over $23 million
through 6,612 bursaries and scholarships to First Nations, Inuit and Métis youth, making it
the largest funder of Indigenous post-secondary education outside the federal government.

About CSLSThe Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) was established in August 1995
to undertake research in the area of living standards. The two main objectives of CSLS
are to contribute to a better understanding of trends in living standards and factors
determining trends through research; and to contribute to public debate on living standards
by developing and advocating specific policies through expert consensus. The research andadvocacy activities of CSLS are motivated by the following general principles: in the long run,growing productivity is the key to improved living standards; in the short to medium-term,
eliminating any output gap is the most effective way to raise living standards; equitably sharing
productivity gains among all groups in society is an essential element of the economic growth
process; increasing cooperation among the various groups which make up our society cancontribute significantly to better living standards; and obtaining reliable data is crucial tothe monitoring and analysis of living standards and to the development of effective policies
to increase living standards.

Founding supporterThanks to the Suncor Energy Foundation for supporting The Contributionof Indigenous People to Future Labour Force Growth in Canada: An Update report.

2

Abstract
The Canadian population is ageing quickly, putting downward pressure on labour force
participation and ultimately on economic growth. However, the Indigenous populationin Canada is relatively youthful and fast-growing, and could help offset some of the
impacts of population ageing, especially if participation rates were to rise to levelsin the rest of the population. This report attempts to quantify this potential contributionof Indigenous people to labour force growth in Canada over the period 2021–2041.
We use a variety of population growth scenarios from Statistics Canada for the Indigenous
population, and labour force participation rate estimates from the 2021 Census, to model
scenarios where participation rates by age remain constant, and scenarios where participation
rates for Indigenous people move to the levels of non-Indigenous people. We find thatIndigenous people will contribute 10 per cent of future labour force growth nationallyin a Medium-growth Scenario for the Indigenous population, and much more in provinces
and regions where non-Indigenous labour force growth is slow, or where the Indigenous
population is a greater share of the population. This contribution would be significantly
larger—15 per cent—if the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous participation rates
were to be closed. Therefore, there is a clear public policy case for investing in additional
education and training for Indigenous people so that they can realize their potential to makea significant contribution to Canada’s future prosperity.

3

Table of Contents
Abstract................................................................................................................................... 3
Table of Contents..................................................................................................................... 4
Executive Summary................................................................................................................. 5
Data and Method.................................................................................................................... 7
Data������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 7
Method����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10
Descriptive Analysis................................................................................................................11
Population������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 11
Age Breakdown���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14
Labour Force Participation Rates�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17
Labour Force Projections........................................................................................................20
Projections by Province and Region��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24
Projections under different growth scenarios������������������������������������������������������������������������ 25
Comparisons with Drummond et al. (2017)��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27
Conclusion..............................................................................................................................29
References.............................................................................................................................31
Appendix Tables.....................................................................................................................32

4

Executive Summary
The youthful and fast-growing Indigenous population in Canada presents both animportant opportunity and significant challenge to the country: an opportunity, as thisgrowing population represents a way to offset part of the impacts of population ageing on
the economy; and a challenge, because Canada’s overall economic health becomes increasingly
tied to the economic health of Indigenous communities as the share of Indigenous people
in the labour force increases. This is particularly true for those parts of the country
which already have large Indigenous populations.
In this report, we try to quantify the likely contribution of Indigenous people to future
labour force growth in Canada and the provinces over the next 25 years, using Census data
and Statistics Canada demographic projections that are based on those data. We build on earlier
work by Drummond et al. (2017) that was based on the 2011 National Household Survey.
We make projections for two scenarios. In Scenario 1, we assume participation rates by age
group remain at 2021 levels. In Scenario 2, we assume that Indigenous participation rates
rise to the same level as that of non-Indigenous people by 2041. Despite a recent suggestion(Ivison, 2023) that the participation rate gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people
has closed (this conclusion is based on data that does not cover reserves), our analysis showsthat the participation rate gap remains very real, especially when controlling for the relative
youth of the Indigenous population.
Even if participation rate gaps remain where they are, Indigenous people, who were 4.6 per centof the labour force in 2021, will be responsible for 10 per cent of total labour force growth.
In many provinces and regions, the proportion is much higher: 17 and 27 per cent in Manitoba
and Saskatchewan; 22 per cent in Quebec; 20 per cent in the Atlantic; and in the North,
Indigenous people will account for all of the labour force growth, more than offsetting thedecline in the non-Indigenous labour force.
If the participation rate gap were to close, these proportions would rise significantly. Indigenous
people would account for 15 per cent of total labour force growth in Canada as a whole;
41 and 29 per cent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan; 28 per cent in Quebec; and 30 per cent in
the Atlantic. Nationally, closing the gap would offset 0.5 percentage points—or around a tenth—of the projected decline in labour force participation rates by 2041.
Our results indicate that raising participation rates among Indigenous people, somethingwhich has intrinsic benefits that go broader than just employment and income, would havea significant economic return. Coupled with policies to improve education and health outcomes,
increasing participation by Indigenous people in the labour force and the economy is soundpublic policy that would benefit both Indigenous people and all Canadians.

5The Contribution of Indigenous People
to Future Labour Force Growth in Canada:
An Update1
Canada’s population is ageing quickly, a result of higher fertility immediately following
World War II (the “baby boom”), and declining fertility since then. This ageing of the
population, and particularly the retirement of the baby boom cohort, will put significant
downward pressure on total hours worked, and therefore, real output and incomes.
According to Arif (2022), annual growth in total hours in Canada will decline from
1.1 per cent in the 2000–2019 period to only 0.8 per cent over the 2019–2038 period.
To address this challenge, governments have looked to increased immigration. However,there is another group that can provide the additional prime-aged workers required to boost
the labour force: the Indigenous people in Canada. Historically, participation rates have been
lower for Indigenous people than non-Indigenous people – although, as the Indigenous
population is younger and fast-growing, Indigenous people are making a disproportionate
contribution to labour force growth. Furthermore, if age-specific participation rates wereto move to the level of the non-Indigenous population, labour force growth would beboosted further.
In this paper, we attempted to quantify the contribution of Indigenous people to future
labour force growth, building on earlier work by Drummond et al. (2017). We developed
projections of the Indigenous contribution to Canada’s labour force growth between
2016 and 2041. The first section details the assumptions and data sources that underlie
the projections. The second section presents descriptive analysis of the data. The third section
presents the labour force projections and the projected contributions of Indigenous people
to labour force growth for Canada, and for the Provinces and Territories of the country.
The fourth section summarizes our conclusions.

1 This report was written by Tim Sargent, Deputy Executive Director of the Centre for the Study of
Living Standards for Indspire: a national Indigenous registered charity that invests in the educationof First Nations, Inuit and Métis people for the long-term benefit of these individuals, their families
and communities, and Canada. We would like to thank Abrar Arif for able research assistance and
Don Drummond and Andrew Sharpe for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thankSamuel Vézina from Statistics Canada for guidance and clarification on the data and the DemoSim model.
Comments are welcome and can be sent to tim.sargent@csls.ca.

6Data and Method
Data
Our first step was to obtain population counts for the total population for 2021 from
Statistics Canada’s annual estimates of the population on July 1 (Table 17-10-0005-01),
for six different age categories, and for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
Due to their relatively small populations, we combined the data to create two regions:the four Atlantic provinces ("the Atlantic"), and the three territories (the “North”).
These estimates were based on 2016 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverageand incompletely enumerated reserves. We then obtained projections of the total population
by age category, and for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions for 2041 from
Statistics Canada’s Population Projection Program (Table 17-10-0057-01). This programprovides a range of scenarios for population growth, depending on assumptions about
fertility rates, interprovincial migration, net immigration and life expectancy. We used
the Medium-growth Scenario M3. It differs from the other Medium-growth Scenarios
only by its assumptions about interprovincial migration.
These data do not provide separate estimates for the Indigenous population. For theseestimates, we turned to data from DemoSim, a microsimulation model maintainedby the Demography Division at Statistics Canada (Table 17-10-0144-01). This model is basedon a 25 per cent sample microdata file from the 2016 Census, again adjusted for census
net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves. It accounts for a large numberof variables that affect population changes (e.g., fertility, mortality, migration, education,
marriage patterns, etc.) and provides projections from 2016 to 2041. It also presents
data by Indigenous identity—whether someone self identifies on the Census form—and by status—Registered or Treaty First Nations, Métis or Inuit. For this study, a person
is counted as Indigenous if they self identify or report having status.
It is important to note that the DemoSim data provide estimates for 2021 based on the2016 Census, not actual data based on the 2021 Census. This is due to it taking time for the2021 Census data to be adjusted for net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves,then taking additional time for the model proprietors to update what is a very sophisticatedmodel. As a result, projections based on the 2021 Census would not normally be available
until 2026. An alternative would be to use available estimates from 2021 Census of Population(Table 98-10-0423-01). The problem with this approach is that these data sets only cover
the population in private households. As a result, estimates of both the Indigenous andthe non-Indigenous population are smaller and not consistent with the DemoSim data.
Furthermore, they are not adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated
reserves; the latter was a much more salient issue in 2021 than in 2016—63 reserves wereincompletely enumerated in 2021, compared to only 14 in 2016—and so the estimates of the
Indigenous population would be correspondingly lower (See Statistics Canada, 2022). The otherapproach, which we have adopted, is to use the DemoSim estimates for 2021, which preservescomparability of the data with the overall estimates of the Canadian population.
7

The authors of the DemoSim model present three different projections of the Indigenous
populations and households: Low-, Medium- and High-growth Scenarios (See Statistics Canada,2021). The scenarios differ according to four different dimensions: fertility; intragenerational
ethnic mobility; change in life expectancy at birth; and registrations on the Indian Registerowing to Bill S-3. The Medium-growth Scenario is meant to be “the one that most accurately
reproduces recently observed population trends while taking the most recent developments
into account,” whereas the High-growth and Low-growth scenarios “generate the lowest andhighest population growth for the Indigenous populations” (Statistics Canada, 2021). Thus,
the three scenarios provide a plausible range for likely outcomes, with the Medium-growth
Scenario effectively being the base case. Table 1 below shows the scenarios associatedwith each scenario.
Table 1:

Assumptions associated with Different Population Growth Scenarios
for the Indigenous Population
Low-growth

Medium-growthHigh-growth

Fertility(Children per Woman)

Declines to 1.7
by 2041Slight increase to 1.9
by 2041

Rises to 2.2
by 2041

Intragenerational
ethnic mobility rate

Starts at 0.15%(Métis) and 0.14%(FN), increases to
0.32% and 0.27%

Starts at 0.47%(Métis) and 0.34%(FN), increases to
0.32% and 0.27%

Starts at 0.47%(Métis) and 0.41%(FN), increases to
0.32% and 0.27%

Life Expectancy(2041)

men = 78.8 years /women = 83.0 years

men = 80.2 years /women = 85.1 years

men = 81.3 years /women = 85.6 years

34,35566,439250,740

Registrations to theIndian Act as a result
owing to Bill S-3

Taking each dimension in turn, the assumptions about fertility rates range from a slow decline
to 1.7 children per woman in 2041 in the Low-growth Scenario, a slight increase to 1.9 children
per woman in 2041 in the Medium-growth Scenario, and a slow increase to 2.2 children per
woman in 2041 in the High-growth Scenario. In all cases, Indigenous fertility remains above
non-Indigenous fertility, assumed to reach 1.56 children per woman by 2041. We should notethat these differences have only limited impacts on the projections as it takes 15 years for an
increase in fertility to affect the working age (fifteen years and older) population.
The next assumption, intragenerational ethnic mobility, refers to changes in the Indigenous
identity category reported by a person over his or her lifetime. In recent decades, ethnic
mobility has accounted for a substantial share of Indigenous population growth in Canada.
Between 1996 and 2016, it accounted for 58 per cent of First Nations population growth8and 74 per cent of Métis population growth. Ethnic mobility rates can vary considerably fromcensus to census. The average rates for conversion to Métis tripled from the 2006–2011 period
to the 2011–2016 period. All three of the scenarios assume that the rate of intragenerational
ethnic mobility converges to the 1996–2016 average level. Where they differ is in their startinglevels. The Medium-growth Scenario assumes the recently observed level (which is well above
the long-term average) at the start, whereas the Low-growth Scenario assumes a lower starting
point and High-growth Scenario assumes a higher starting point. While intragenerational ethnic
mobility is not absent from First Nations communities on reserves and from Inuit, the net flow
is close to zero.
The third set of assumptions pertains to life expectancy at birth. In each scenario, life expectancy
rises between 2016 and 2041: the increase is slow, moderate and fast for the Low-growth,
Medium-growth and High-growth Scenarios respectively.
The final set of assumptions is related to registrations to the Indian Act resulting from Bill S-3,
which received Royal Assent in 2017. S-3 is the latest in a series of amendments madeto the Act over the years that effect the population entitled to be on the Indian Register.
It follows Bill C-31 (1985) and Bill C-3 (2011), both of which had a significant impact on the
Indian register population. For example, Bill C-31, while dealing with some sex-based inequities,
also introduced the "second-generation cut-off" which has important implications for registeredstatus members and their ability to pass status to their children. For example, as more status“Indians” have children with non-status persons, the number of status persons will graduallydiminish2. Bill C-31 allowed more than 174,500 people to become eligible for registration3.
C-3, which came into effect in 2011, dealt with some further sex-based inequities, allowing
an additional 37,000 people to be registered. Most recently, in 2019, Bill S-3 amended
the Indian Act in response to a 2015 Superior Court of Quebec decision on differencesin Indigenous registration between men and women. As a result of these changes,
a significant number of people will now be able to claim Indigenous status based ondescent from women who lost status or who were removed from band lists becauseof marriage to non-Indigenous men. However, there is significant uncertainty about
the number of people eligible to register, and whether they will in fact do so. Under the
Low-growth Scenario, the authors assume 34,355 new registrations between 2017 and 2041;
under the Medium-growth Scenario 66,439; and under the High-growth Scenario 250,740.
However, most of these registrations are assumed to come from people who alreadyidentify as Indigenous, and so the impact on the overall Indigenous population is quite small.
Finally, we needed information on labour force participation rates. Because Statistics Canada’s
Labour Force Survey does not survey on reserves or other Indigenous settlements, we took
labour force participation data by age and region from the 2021 Census 25 per cent sample
microdata file for both Indigenous and non-Indigenous people (Table 98-10-0423-01).
As noted above, these data are for a slightly smaller population than the population data for the
DemoSim model, but in the absence of more complete data, they are the best we have for 2021.
2 See Remaining inequities related to registration and membership (rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca).
3 See 16-19-02-06-AFN-Fact-Sheet-Bill-C-31-Bill-C-3-final-revised.pdf.

9Method
In order to produce our labour force projections for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous
populations in 2041, we began by using the population and labour force participation
rate estimates from 2021 to calculate the labour force by age range for Indigenous andnon-Indigenous people for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
We then multiplied the projected total population in 2041 by the projected share of the
population aged 15 and over to obtain a projected working-age population for Indigenous
and non-Indigenous people, and for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
We did this for each of the three growth scenarios outlined previously.
Finally, we calculated projected Indigenous and non-Indigenous labour forces under
two alternative scenarios for the groups’ respective participation rates. For Scenario 1,
we assumed that Indigenous and non-Indigenous labour force participation by age groupremains unchanged at their 2021 levels. We then calculated labour force projections using
these 2021 estimates for both populations. For Scenario 2, we assumed that the Indigenous
participation rate by age group converges with the non-Indigenous participation rate by 2041,
so that the age-specific gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous labour force participation
close. In this case, we calculated labour force projections by using the 2021 participation rates
for non-Indigenous people for both populations.
It is important to note that, although we assumed that labour participation rates remain
at their 2021 levels for each age group, the overall participation rate changed as the shareof the working population in each age group changed.
With the Indigenous and non-Indigenous labour force projections from the final calculation,
it was straightforward to compute the change in each group’s labour force between 2021
and 2041. The ratio of the change in the Indigenous labour force to the change in the total
labour force is our measure of the Indigenous population’s contribution to Canada’s labour
force growth over the 2021–2041 period.

10Descriptive Analysis
Population
We begin this section with an overview of the population data that will underpin our analysis. Table 2 below presents population
statistics for Indigenous and non-Indigenous people aged 15 and over, and for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
Panel A shows the population levels in 2021 and the projections for 2041 under the three different scenarios described on page 8.
Panel B shows the implied annual growth rates between 2021 and 2041.
Table 2: Population Statistics for Indigenous and non-Indigenous people aged 15 and over
Panel A:

Population Levels (thousands of persons)2041 Projections
NonIndigenous

2021

NonIndigenous
Indigenous
CanadaTotal

IndigenousA.
LowgrowthB.
Mediumgrowth

C.
HighgrowthDifference(A–C)

Per cent of
population
2021

Per cent of
Per cent of
population
population(Medium(High-growth
growth 2041)
2041)

Per cent of
population(Low-growth2041)

30,6401,565

32,20537,858

2,051

2,330

2,596

545

4.9

5.8

6.4

5.1

Atlantic

1,999

126

2,125

2,043

140

175

202

62

5.9

7.9

9.0

6.4

Quebec

7,068

183

7,251

7,773

217

270

316

99

2.5

3.4

3.9

2.7

Ontario

12,174366

12,54015,210

479

555

636

157

2.9

3.5

4.0

3.1

Manitoba

936

195

1,131

1,127

258

280

298

40

17.2

19.9

20.9

18.6

Saskatchewan

803

149

952

1,057

204

217

232

28

15.7

17.0

18.0

16.2

Alberta

3,384

241

3,625

5,168

351

390

425

74

6.6

7.0

7.6

6.4

British Columbia

4,225

256

4,481

5,428

340

380

421

81

5.7

6.5

7.2

5.9

North

52

48

100

52

61

63

65

4

48.0

54.8

55.6

54.0

11

Panel B:

Implied Population Growth Rates, 2021–2041 (per cent per year)

Non-Indigenous

IndigenousA.
Low-growth

B.
Medium-growthC.
High-growth

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Difference(4)–(2)Difference(3)–(1)

Canada

–

–

1.1

1.4

2.0

2.6

-1.2

0.9

Atlantic

–

–

0.1

0.5

1.7

2.4

-1.9

1.5

Quebec

–

–

0.5

0.9

2.0

2.8

-1.9

1.5

Ontario

–

–

1.1

1.4

2.1

2.8

-1.4

1.0

Manitoba

–

–

0.9

1.4

1.8

2.1

-0.7

0.9

Saskatchewan

–

–

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.2

-0.7

0.5

Alberta

–

–

2.1

1.9

2.4

2.9

-1.0

0.3

British Columbia

–

–

1.3

1.4

2.0

2.5

-1.1

0.7

North

–

–

0.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

-0.3

1.4

12

In 2021, the Indigenous working-age population (defined as the population aged 15+)of Canada was 1.6 million, and the non-Indigenous working-age population was 32.2 million.
Therefore, Indigenous people accounted for 4.9 per cent of the total working-age populationin Canada, ranging from 48 per cent in the North to 2.5 per cent in Quebec.
The non-Indigenous working-age population is projected to rise by 1.1 per cent per year overthe 2021–2041 period and to reach 37.9 million in 2041. The Medium-growth Scenario for
the Indigenous population is 2.3 million in 2041—5.8 per cent of the working-age population.
The implied growth rate is 2.0 per cent per year; with Alberta growing a little above thenational average; Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia around the national average; and theAtlantic, Manitoba and Saskatchewan a little below. The North is lowest with only 1.4 per cent
growth; however, this contrasts with almost no growth in the non-Indigenous workforce.
The result of this faster growth in the Indigenous population of working age is an increasein the share of Indigenous people in the overall workforce from 4.9 per cent in 2021
to 5.8 per cent in 2041 in the Medium-growth Scenario. The share ranges fromapproximately 3.5 per cent in Quebec and Ontario; to between 6 and 8 per cent in
the Atlantic, British Columbia and Alberta; to 17 per cent in Saskatchewan, 20 per centin Manitoba, and 55 per cent in the North.
The projections vary significantly under the Low-growth Scenario and High-growth Scenario.
Growth in the Indigenous working-age population varies from 1.4 per cent to 2.6 per centfor Canada as a whole, with variation as large as 1.9 percentage points for the Atlantic andQuebec, and as little as 0.3 percentage points for the North. For the overall share of Indigenous
people in the workforce in 2041, projections range from 5.1 per cent in the Low-growth
Scenario to 6.4 per cent in the High-growth Scenario. Across the six provinces and two
regions, the differences in scenarios are of a similar magnitude to the national differences.
Even in the Low-growth Scenario, the Indigenous share of the workforce rises in every
province/region except Alberta.

13Age Breakdown
Table 3 below shows the age breakdown of the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations
for Canada in 2021 and in 2041 under the three scenarios. The Indigenous population in 2021
was substantially younger than the non-Indigenous population. Among Indigenous people,
24 per cent were below age 15. The corresponding share among non-Indigenous people was
16 per cent, 8 percentage points lower. At the other end of the age spectrum, 9 per cent ofIndigenous people were aged 65 and older, compared to 19 per cent among non-Indigenous
people (a gap of 9 percentage points). The share of the population that was aged 15–64
was slightly lower among non-Indigenous than among Indigenous people (66 per centand 67 per cent, respectively). Overall, 84 per cent of the non-Indigenous population
was of working age, compared to 76 per cent of the Indigenous population.
Table 3:Age Composition of the Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations 2021
and Projection for 2041 (per cent)
2021

2041 Projection

Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Indigenous
A. Low- B. Medium- C. Highgrowth
growth
growth

0–14

15.8

24.0

14.4

17.8

18.2

18.4

15–64

65.7

66.8

62.1

65.6

64.6

64.0

65+

18.5

9.2

23.5

16.6

17.2

17.6

Working-age
(15+)

84.2

76.0

85.6

82.2

81.8

81.6

Source: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01

The Indigenous population is projected to remain relatively young in 2041. However, theage distribution will move considerably closer to that of the non-Indigenous population.
Under the Medium-growth Scenario, the share of Indigenous people below age 15 declines
from 24 per cent to 18 per cent. As a result, the working-age population share rises from76 per cent to 82 per cent. Thus, a substantial part of Indigenous labour force growth overthe projection horizon is expected to come from the ageing of the population, with the current
large cohort of people aged 0–14 moving into working age. Among non-Indigenous people,
the working-age population share is projected to rise only slightly, from 84 to 86 per cent.
Focusing on the 65+ age group, we see some very significant shifts over time forboth Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations. The share of the non-Indigenous
population over 65 rises by 5 percentage points from 19 per cent to 24 per cent.
Under the Medium-growth Scenario, the share of the Indigenous population over 65
rises even more, by 8 percentage points, from 9 per cent to 17 per cent.
14

Table 4 below provides more detail on the age structure for 2021 by displaying the absolute sizeand distribution of the non-Indigenous and Indigenous working-age populations in ten-year
age groups from 15 to 64, and for the 65 and older age group. The Indigenous working-age
population is much younger, with 58 per cent in the three youngest age groups (15–24,
25–34 and 35–44), compared to 46 per cent for the non-Indigenous population.
Table 4:

Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations, 2021 (thousands of persons)

65+

Workingage (15+)

Non-Indigenous

4,174 5,009 4,911 4,574 5,079 6,893

30,640Indigenous

333

321

259

237

226

189

1,565

Share of Non-Indigenous
Population (%)

13.6

16.3

16.0

14.9

16.6

22.5

100.0

Share of Indigenous Population (%)

21.3

20.5

16.5

15.1

14.4

12.1

100.0

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

Source: Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0144-01 and 17-10-0005-01

15

Table 5 below shows the absolute size and distribution of the working-age populationin 2041 for the non-Indigenous and Indigenous populations in ten-year age groups from15 to 64, and for the 65 and older age group. By 2041, ageing of both the Indigenous
and non-Indigenous population has reduced the share of the working-age populationin the 15–44 age groups to 50 per cent and 43 per cent respectively, with the gap between
shares now 7 percentage points, down from 12 per cent in 2021.
Table 5:Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Projection for 2041, Medium-growth Scenario(thousands of persons)

65+

Workingage (15+)

Non-Indigenous

4,967 5,628 5,798 5,981 5,104 10,380

37,857

Indigenous

363

417

385

376

301

489

2,331

Share of Non-Indigenous
Population (%)

13.1

14.9

15.3

15.8

13.5

27.4

100.0

Share of Indigenous Population (%)

15.6

17.9

16.5

16.1

12.9

21.0

100.0

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

Source: Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0144-01 and 17-10-0057-01

Thus we can see that the pyramid-shaped age structure of the 2021 Indigenous population,skewed to younger cohorts, evolves by 2041 to a much more evenly distributed age structurethat is very similar to that of non-Indigenous people twenty years earlier in 2021. Although,by 2041, the age structure of non-Indigenous people will have skewed much more to theoldest cohort, which is expected to be roughly twice as large as any other age cohort.

16

Labour Force Participation Rates
Table 6 below presents the labour force participation rates in 2021 for the Indigenous andnon-Indigenous working-age populations for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
At the national level, the participation rates were 60 per cent and 64 per cent for Indigenous
and non-Indigenous people respectively, leading to a gap of 4 percentage points.
The participation gap is much larger for the below-65 age groups—ranging from 8 to
14 per cent—but is actually negative for the 65+ age group, where the participation ratefor Indigenous people is 1.9 percentage points above that of non-Indigenous people.
The overall participation rate gap of 4 percentage points would be much larger if the
Indigenous population were as old as the non-Indigenous population; however, because
there are so many Indigenous people in the younger age groups, the lower participation rates
for those under 65 are partly offset by the lower average age of the Indigenous population.
Table 6:

Labour Force Participation Rates of the Indigenous
and Non-Indigenous Populations by Age Category, 2021

Panel A: Indigenous and Non-Indigenous National Participation Rates (per cent)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

Non-Indigenous

61.0

85.9

86.9

85.8

66.4

15.7

63.9

Indigenous

50.1

72.4

75.9

74.4

58.4

17.6

59.9

Panel B: Gap between Non-Indigenous and Indigenous Rates (per cent)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

10.9

13.5

11.0

11.4

8.0

-1.9

4.0

Atlantic

13.0

7.6

7.7

6.7

4.4

-2.2

2.5

Quebec

9.5

10.3

7.2

8.3

5.3

-1.3

2.6

Ontario

4.4

10.5

8.6

9.4

10.1

0.3

2.5

Manitoba

13.3

21.2

17.2

17.2

11.6

-1.4

7.1

Saskatchewan

10.3

23.9

21.0

20.6

13.9

2.7

8.3

Alberta

6.4

12.0

10.0

12.7

8.4

-1.1

4.7

British Columbia

17.8

9.7

9.5

9.8

6.4

-4.1

3.0

North

30.1

26.0

23.0

21.7

14.9

7.8

25.3

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 98-10-0423-01, 17-10-0144-01, 17-10-0005-01

17

The 4 percentage point gap in aggregate participation rates is a little lower than the
4.9 percentage point gap Drummond et al. (2017) found in 2011. But it is still significant.
A recent report by the Coalition for a Better Future asserts that the participation rate gap
between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people has closed (See Ivison, 2023). However,this conclusion is drawn from Labour Force Survey Data, and as noted previously, these data
do not cover Indigenous people on reserve, where participation rates are lower. As a result,they are an imperfect guide compared to our data, which do cover Indigenous people on
reserve. The other point to be made is that the aggregate participation rate gap masks thescale of participation rate gaps by age group, which, as shown on page 17, are significantly
greater than the aggregate participation rate gap, with the exception of people aged 65+.
This is a result of the Indigenous population being much younger than the non-Indigenous
population, and so there are fewer people in the older age groups where participation rates
are lower.
Panel B of Table 6 (on page 17) provides a breakdown by province/region of labour force
participation in 2021. The gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous participation rates
varies greatly by geography, with gaps lower in the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario and British
Columbia; around the national average in Alberta; and much higher than the national averagein Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the North.
We now turn to the implications of these age-specific participation rate gaps for the overall
size of the labour force in Canada. Table 7 (on pages 19) provides an estimate of what thelabour force would have been in Canada in 2021 if the Indigenous participation rate foreach age group had been the same as that of the non-Indigenous population. In this scenario,
participation rates for Indigenous people would rise significantly for all ages below 65,
but decline slightly for Indigenous people aged 65 and older. This counterfactual assumption
increases the Indigenous labour force by 150,000 from 937,000 to 1,087,000 in 2021,
a 15 per cent increase. As a result the overall labour force would rise 0.7 per cent.

18

Table 7:

Effect of Participation Rate Gap on the Labour Force in 2021, Canada

Panel A: Participation Rate and Population Data by Age Group and Indigenous Identity (2021)
Participation Rate (per cent)Population (thousands of persons)Indigenous

Non-Indigenous

Indigenous

Non-Indigenous

15–24

50.1

61.0

333

4,174

25–34

72.4

85.9

321

5,009

35–44

75.9

86.9

259

4,911

45–54

74.4

85.8

237

4,574

55–64

58.4

66.4

226

5,079

65+

17.6

15.7

189

6,893

Panel B: Effect of the Participation Gap in 2021 (thousands of persons)Indigenous

Non-Indigenous

Total

Actual Labour Force (2021)

937

19,496

20,433

Counterfactual Labour Force (2021)

1,087

19,496

20,583Per cent change

16.0

0.0

0.7

Source: Author’s calculations

19

Labour Force Projections
We used the population projections and the 2021 data on participation rates to constructlabour force projections to 2041 for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations for
Canada, the six provinces and the two regions, based on the three different projections for
growth in the Indigenous population. For the non-Indigenous population, we assumed thatparticipation rates by age group remain at 2021 levels. (Note that the overall participation rate
for the non-Indigenous population will change as the age structure of the population changes).
We then constructed two scenarios for the growth of the Indigenous labour force:
Scenario 1
The participation rate for the Indigenous population remains at 2021 levels,
so that the participation rate gap by age group and by province/region between
Indigenous and non-Indigenous people remains unchanged over the 2021–2041 period.
Scenario 2
The participation rate for the Indigenous population by age group andby province/region in 2041 is that of the non-Indigenous population in 2021,
so that the participation rate gap by age group disappears for each province/region.
The implications of the two scenarios are shown in Table 8 (on page 21 and 22).

20

Table 8:

Labour Force Projections for 2041, Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Medium-growth Scenario

Scenario 1: Participation Rate Gap Remains Unchanged (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,2021–2041 (per cent)

3,491

3,880

10.0

21

-100

-79

-26.1

4,797

43

151

194

22.3

9,110

9,422

91

1,467

1,559

5.8

155

727

882

41

110

151

26.9

628

120

701

821

32

161

193

16.8

2,308

2,461

236

3,440

3,677

83

1,132

1,215

6.9

154

2,674

2,828

218

3,277

3,495

64

603

667

9.6

27

42

69

35

37

72

8

-5

3

262.3

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,326

23,06324,390389

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

95

1,129

1,224

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

155

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

312

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

21

Scenario 2:

Participation Rate Gap Closes by 2041 (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,
2016–2041 (per cent)

3,491

4,087

14.6

30

-100

-70

-42.2

4,813

59

151

210

28.1

9,110

9,460

129

1,467

1,596

8.1

192

727

918

77

110

187

41.2

628

154

701

855

66

161

227

29.2

2,308

2,461

268

3,440

3,708

115

1,132

1,247

9.2

154

2,674

2,828

246

3,277

3,524

92

603

695

13.2

27

42

69

48

37

85

21

-5

16

129.8

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,533

23,063

24,596596

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

104

1,129

1,233

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

171

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

350

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

Source: Statistics Canada Tables 98-10-0423-01, 17-10-0144-01, 17-10-0005-01

22

In both scenarios, the Indigenous labour force grows significantly, from 937,000 in 2021 to
1,326,000 if participation rates remain unchanged (Scenario 1); to 1,533,000 if participation
rates equalize (Scenario 2). This is a difference of 207,000 people. Meanwhile, the nonIndigenous labour force grows by 3,481,000 to 23,063,000. Thus, the Indigenous population
share of total labour force growth is 10 per cent in Scenario 1 and 15 per cent in Scenario 2.
This is significantly higher than the Indigenous share of the 2021 working-age population(4.9 per cent) and of the 2021 labour force (4.6 per cent). As a result, the Indigenous shareof the labour force rises to 5.4 per cent in Scenario 1, and to 6.2 per cent in Scenario 2.
As Table 9 below illustrates, closing the participation rate gap—or more precisely, by moving
Indigenous participation rates to non-Indigenous levels—increases the overall participation rate
for Canada by 0.5 percentage points, so that the overall participation rate would drop from
63.7 per cent in 2021 to 61.2 per cent in 2041 if the gap were closed, rather than to 60.7 per centif the gap remained constant. As result, closing the gap would offset 0.5 percentage points—
or approximately one sixth—of the projected decline in labour force participation rates by 2041.
Table 9:Participation Rate Projections for 2041,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations, Medium-growth Scenario (per cent)
2021

2041
Participation Rate
Gap Closes

Participation Gap
Remains Unchanged

NonNonNonIndigenous Indigenous
Total Indigenous Indigenous
Total Indigenous Indigenous
Total
Canada

59.9

63.9

63.7

56.9

60.9

60.7

65.8

60.9

61.2

Atlantic

59.0

61.5

61.3

54.3

55.3

55.2

59.4

55.3

55.6

Quebec

61.0

63.5

63.5

57.4

59.7

59.6

63.2

59.7

59.8

Ontario

60.3

62.8

62.7

56.2

59.9

59.8

63.0

59.9

60.0

Manitoba

58.8

65.9

64.7

55.4

64.5

62.7

68.5

64.5

65.3

Saskatchewan

59.0

67.3

66.0

55.5

66.3

64.4

71.1

66.3

67.1

Alberta

63.5

68.2

67.9

60.6

66.6

66.2

68.7

66.6

66.7

BritishColumbia

60.3

63.3

63.1

57.4

60.4

60.2

64.8

60.4

60.7

North

55.8

81.1

69.0

55.0

72.0

62.7

76.2

72.0

74.3

Source: Statistics Canada Tables 98-10-0423-01, 17-10-0144-01, 17-10-0005-01

23

Projections by Province and Region
The contributions to national growth are dwarfed by the contributions in some provincesor regions. As Table 8 shows, even with a constant participation rate, in the Medium-growth
Scenario, Indigenous people account for 22 per cent of labour force growth in Quebec,
17 per cent in Saskatchewan and 27 per cent in Manitoba. In Ontario, Alberta and British
Columbia the contribution of Indigenous people to labour force growth is slightly below
the national average, largely because the non-Indigenous population is growing relatively
quickly, although not as quickly as the Indigenous population.
The situation in the Atlantic and the North is more complicated. For the Atlantic, the overall
labour force is set to decline rather than to grow, due to a decline in the non-Indigenous
labour force. Thus, the growing Indigenous labour force contributes negatively to the decline(hence the -26 per cent contribution in Table 8 on page 21). However, a better way of
thinking of this is to note that growth in the Indigenous labour force in the Atlantic offsets
20 per cent of the decline in the labour force, so that it shrinks by only 6 per cent insteadof 8 per cent.
In the North, there is a similar situation, with the non-Indigenous labour force expected
to decline. However, this is more than offset by a rise in the Indigenous labour force.
Rather than looking at the 262 per cent contribution in Table 8 on page 21, a better way
to think of this situation is to note that Indigenous labour force growth offsets all of
the decline in the labour force, so that it grows by 4 per cent, rather than declining by
7 per cent in a scenario where there was no Indigenous labour force growth.
Closing the participation rate gap makes these contributions even larger: Indigenous people
would then account for 28 per cent of labour force growth in Quebec up 6 percentage points
compared to the scenario with unchanged participation rates), 29 per cent in Saskatchewan(up 12 percentage points) and 41 per cent in Manitoba (up 14 percentage points).
In the Atlantic, Indigenous labour force growth would offset 30 per cent of the decline
in the non-Indigenous labour force, and in the North the total labour force would growby 24 per cent instead of declining by 7 per cent.

24

Projections under different growth scenarios
As discussed earlier, the population projections provided by Statistics Canada depend
on a series of assumptions regarding the future, particularly assumptions pertaining
to fertility, intragenerational ethnic mobility, change in life expectancy at birth, andregistrations on the Indian Register owing to Bill S-3. Therefore, Statistics Canada produces
High-, Medium- and Low-growth Scenarios that reflect different projections along thefour assumptions.
Chart 1 below shows how the Indigenous share of labour force growth varies under
the three different growth scenarios for each of the participation rate assumptions.
Chart 1: Indigenous Share of Labour Force Growth in Different Growth Scenarios
Indigenous Share of Labour Force Growth, 2021–2041 (per cent) Canada
18.5
18.0
16.0

Reference Estimate with
Constant Participation Rate

14.6

13.8

14.0
12.0
10.0

10.3

10.0

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

6.1

Reference Estimate with
Closed Participation Rate Gap
Low-growth Scenario with
Constant Participation Rate
Low-growth Scenario with
Closed Participation Rate Gap
High-growth Scenario with
Constant Participation Rate
High-growth Scenario with
Closed Participation Rate Gap

Source: Author’s calculations.

The Indigenous share of labour force growth ranges from 6 per cent to 15 per cent, witha constant participation rate gap; and from 10 to 19 per cent, with a closed participation
rate gap. Closing the gap would therefore increase the contribution of Indigenous people
by about 4–5 percentage points in each scenario.
In all three scenarios, Indigenous people are a significant contributor to labour force growthand closing the gap would have a significant additional impact. The impact on the overall
participation rate ranges from 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points, again offsetting about a sixthof the decline in the overall participation rate.

25

Chart 2 below illustrates the Indigenous share of labour force growth for Canada and theprovinces for the closed and constant participation rate gaps across the three growth scenarios.
Due to the difficulty of interpreting the numbers for the Atlantic and the North, we do not showthese regions.
Chart 2:

Indigenous Share of Labour Force Growth in Different Growth Scenarios by Province

Indigenous Share of Labour Force Growth by Region, 2021–2041 (per cent)
50.0

Reference Estimate with
Constant Participation Rate

45.0

Reference Estimate with
Closed Participation Rate Gap

40.0
35.0

Low-growth Scenario with
Constant Participation Rate

30.0
25.0

Low-growth Scenario with
Closed Participation Rate Gap

20.0
15.0

High-growth Scenario with
Constant Participation Rate

10.0
5.0

mb

ta
er

olu
hC
Br

itis

ska
tch

Alb

ew
an

ba
Sa

M

an

ito

o
On
tar
i

ec
eb
Qu

Ca

na

da

0.0

ia

High-growth Scenario with
Closed Participation Rate Gap

Source: Author’s calculations.
Note: The North and the Atlantic are not shown in the chart because the non-Indigenous labour force declines.

Using the High-growth Scenarios and Low-growth Scenarios changes the picture quite a bit
for Quebec: the share of Indigenous people in labour force growth varies from 8 per centto 37 per cent depending on growth scenario and participation rate assumption. This large
variation reflects low growth in the non-Indigenous labour force, so that small changes in
the Indigenous labour force have a big impact on the growth of the overall labour force.
The results in other provinces are more robust for different Indigenous population growthscenarios. As non-Indigenous population growth is higher, Indigenous shares in labour force
growth range from 3 to 11 per cent in Ontario; 5 to 11 per cent in Alberta; 6 to 16 per centin British Columbia; 14 to 32 per cent in Saskatchewan; and 21 to 44 per cent in Manitoba.

26

Comparisons with Drummond et al. (2017)
Now, we investigate how our projections over the period 2021 to 2041 differ from those madeby Drummond et al. (2017) for the 2011 to 2036 period. Chart 3 below shows the difference
between our Medium-growth Scenario and their reference scenario for both constant andclosed participation rates.
Chart 3:Comparison of Contribution of Indigenous Share of the Labour Forcein Current Study and in Drummond et al. (2017)

Indigenous Share of Labour Force Growth in Canada,
Old Projections vs New Projections (per cent)
25.0
20.9
20.0
16.7
14.6

15.0

10.0

Reference Estimate with
Closed Participation Rate

10.0

Reference Estimate with
Constant Participation Rate(2017 Report)
Reference Estimate with
Closed Participation Rate(2017 Report)

5.0

0.0

Reference Estimate with
Constant Participation Rate

CanadaSource: Author’s calculations, Drummond et al. (2017).

The Indigenous share of labour force growth is higher in the 2017 study: 17 to 21 per cent,compared to 10 to 15 per cent in our study. However, the implications of closing theparticipation rate gap are similar: between 4 and 5 percentage points.
The underlying explanation for the lower Indigenous share of labour force growth in thisstudy is the differences in the evolution of the working-age population in the two studies.
In our study, the growth of the Indigenous population is only 2.0 per cent per annum in theMedium-growth Scenario on (See Table 2), compared to 3.0 per cent in Drummond et al. (2017)
in their Reference scenario (See their Table 1 on pages 11 and 12). However, the growthof the non-Indigenous population is very similar in both studies (around 1.1 per cent).
In our study, the Indigenous population grows less quickly relative to the non-Indigenous
population and the Indigenous labour force grows less quickly, accounting for less of thetotal growth of the labour force.
27

The slower growth of the Indigenous population in our study is attributable to a number ofdifferent causes. One key factor is that the Indigenous population has changed significantly
since 2011. Drummond et al. (2017) have the Indigenous share of the population at
3.6 per cent. In our study, we have a share of 4.9 per cent. A significant part of that increase isattributable to intragenerational ethnic mobility that took place over the 2011–2021 period.
As those who are now declaring Indigenous identity tend to have fertility rates closer
to the non-Indigenous population, this brings down projected fertility rates for Indigenous
people over the 2021–2041 period. There are also differences in the data used for the starting
point of the projections. As a result, we use the working population from the DemoSim modelfor 2021 that uses as a base Census estimates from 2016 that are adjusted for undercounts,
particularly on reserves, whereas Drummond et al. (2017) use data from the 2011 National
Household Survey that does not make those post-Census adjustments.

28

Conclusion
We used official Statistics Canada population scenarios, taken from their DemoSim model(Statistics Canada, 2021), to estimate the contribution of Indigenous people to projectedlabour force growth between 2021 and 2041 for Canada, the six provinces and the two regions.
Our results show that Indigenous people will contribute a disproportionate share of
Canada’s labour force growth. Even though Indigenous people account for 4.6 per centof the labour force in 2021, their share of total labour force growth ranges from 6 per centin the Low-growth Scenario, to 10 per cent in the Medium-growth Scenario, to 13 per centin the High-growth Scenario.
This contribution is even more significant in many provinces or regions. In the Medium-growth
Scenario, Indigenous people will contribute 27 per cent of the labour force growth in Manitoba,
and 17 per cent of labour force growth in Saskatchewan. In Quebec, as there is very little growthin the non-Indigenous labour force, Indigenous people account for 22 per cent of labour force
growth. In the Atlantic, the non-Indigenous labour force is projected to decline. Nonetheless,the growth of the Indigenous labour force is able to offset a fifth of this decline. In the North,where the non-Indigenous labour force is set to decline significantly, the growth of the
Indigenous labour force will more than offset this decline.
Significant though these contributions are, they could be higher. If the labour force participation
rate gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people were to be closed, the Indigenous
labour force would increase by an additional 206,000 in the Medium-growth Scenario,
implying an Indigenous contribution to Canada’s labour force growth of 15 per cent, rather than
10 per cent. In the High-growth Scenario this would climb to 19 per cent.
In some provinces the impact would be even larger: in Manitoba the Indigenous contribution
would rise to 41 per cent, in Saskatchewan to 29 per cent, and in Quebec to 28 per cent.
Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia would also see Indigenous contributions of 8 to
13 per cent or more.
These numbers are not small. They show that Indigenous people will make a very significant
contribution to one of Canada’s most salient economic challenges—the downward drag on
the labour force from the retirement of the baby boom generation—and, given the right policies,
they could make an even greater contribution.
One of the benefits of higher labour force participation is increased Gross Domestic Product(GDP). Calculating this impact is beyond the scope of this study. However, a study by theCentre of the Study of Living Standards (2023), building on work by Calver (2015), foundthat closing the educational attainment gap, the employment gap, and the employment
income gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people would lead to cumulative
GDP gains of $457 billion by 2041. In addition to these monetary benefits, for prime-aged
workers, being in the labour force can provide meaning and purpose and help stave off
a variety of social ills from substance use issues to homelessness that are both destructive
to the individuals concerned and costly to society.
29

Of course, raising participation rates to non-Indigenous levels will likely require policy action,
particularly increasing funding for education and job training. However, the investment
will likely be worth it, if it can raise participation rates closer to non-Indigenous levels.
To conclude, Indigenous people will play an increasing role in Canada’s labour market overthe next 25 years, helping to offset the challenge of population ageing. With the right policies,
this contribution could be significantly larger and the benefits would be consequential –for Indigenous people themselves, for their communities, and for Canada as a whole.

30

References
Arif, A. (2022). Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038,
CSLS Research Report, 2022-01.
http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2022-01.pdf
Calver, M. (2015). "Closing the Indigenous Education Gap in Canada: Assessing Progress
and Estimating Economic Benefits," prepared for Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada.
http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2015-03.pdf
Centre for the Study of Living Standards (2023). Closing the First Nations Education Gap
in Canada: Assessing Progress and Estimating the Economic Benefits – An Update,
CSLS Research Report, 2023-01.
AFN-Closing-the-Gap_Report-2023_EN.pdf (csls.ca)
Drummond, D., Sharpe, A., Murray, A., & Mask, N. (2017).
The Contribution of Aboriginal People to the Future Labour Force Growth of Canada,
CSLS Research Report, 2017-07.
http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2017-07.pdf
Ivison, J. (2023). Lisa Raitt on why new Canada prosperity report gives her "great concern",
National Post, March 7, 2023.
New Canada prosperity report gives Lisa Raitt ‘great concern’ | National Post
Skudra, M., Avgerinos, A., McCallum, K.E. (2020). Filling Canada’s Indigenous skills gap would bean economic boon, Policy Options
Filling Canada’s Indigenous skills gap would be an economic boon (irpp.org)
Statistics Canada (2021). Projections of the Indigenous populations and households in Canada,
2016 to 2041: Overview of data sources, methods, assumptions and scenarios,
Statistics Canada, Cat. No. 17-20-0001.
Statistics Canada (2022). Indigenous population continues to grow and is muchyounger than the non-Indigenous population, although the pace of growth has slowed,
The Daily, September 21, 2022.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921a-eng.htm

31Appendix Tables
Appendix Table 1A: Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Projection for 2041, Medium-growth Scenario
Panel A: Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

363

417

385

376

300

489

2,330

Atlantic

25

27

26

27

22

48

175

Quebec

40

45

40

41

36

68

270

Ontario

82

95

91

92

72

123

555

Manitoba

47

54

48

44

34

53

280

Saskatchewan

39

42

38

35

26

37

217

Alberta

64

77

69

64

49

67

390

British Columbia

56

65

64

64

49

82

380

North

11

13

11

10

8

10

63

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

4,967

5,628

5,798

5,981

5,105

10,38037,858Atlantic

241

242

271

314

292

682

2,043

Quebec

974

1,118

1,073

1,149

1,105

2,355

7,773

Ontario

2,038

2,238

2,376

2,446

1,979

4,134

15,210Manitoba

166

169

177

181

153

281

1,127

Saskatchewan

153

153

166

173

152

261

1,057

Alberta

703

915

916

848

679

1,107

5,168

British Columbia

684

785

808

861

743

1,549

5,428

North

8

8

8

9

7

12

52

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

32

Appendix Table 1B:

Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Projection for 2041, Low-growth Scenario

Panel A: Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

323

369

346

336

263

414

2,051

Atlantic

20

22

22

22

17

37

140

Quebec

33

36

33

33

29

53

217

Ontario

72

81

80

80

63

103

479

Manitoba

43

50

45

42

31

47

258

Saskatchewan

36

40

36

33

25

34

204

Alberta

58

69

63

58

44

59

351

British Columbia

50

58

58

58

45

71

340

North

11

12

11

10

7

10

61

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

4,966

5,627

5,795

5,979

5,109

10,38137,857

Atlantic

241

242

271

314

292

682

2,043

Quebec

974

1,118

1,073

1,149

1,105

2,355

7,773

Ontario

2,038

2,238

2,376

2,446

1,979

4,134

15,210Manitoba

166

169

177

181

153

281

1,127

Saskatchewan

153

153

166

173

152

261

1,057

Alberta

703

915

916

848

679

1,107

5,168

British Columbia

684

785

808

861

743

1,549

5,428

North

8

8

8

9

7

12

52

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

33

Appendix Table 1C:

Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Projection for 2041, High-growth Scenario

Panel A: Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

396

461

425

417

337

560

2,596

Atlantic

27

30

29

31

29

56

202

Quebec

45

53

47

48

43

80

316

Ontario

92

109

104

105

83

143

636

Manitoba

50

56

50

47

36

59

298

Saskatchewan

42

44

39

36

29

42

232

Alberta

68

84

74

69

55

75

425

British Columbia

60

72

70

70

55

94

421

North

11

13

12

10

8

11

65

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

4,966

5,627

5,795

5,979

5,109

10,38137,857

Atlantic

241

242

271

314

292

682

2,043

Quebec

974

1,118

1,073

1,149

1,105

2,355

7,773

Ontario

2,038

2,238

2,376

2,446

1,979

4,134

15,210Manitoba

166

169

177

181

153

281

1,127

Saskatchewan

153

153

166

173

152

261

1,057

Alberta

703

915

916

848

679

1,107

5,168

British Columbia

684

785

808

861

743

1,549

5,428

North

8

8

8

9

7

12

52

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

34

Appendix Table 2A: Labour Force Projections for 2041, Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
Low-growth Scenario
Scenario 1:

Participation Rate Gap Remains Unchanged (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,2021–2041 (per cent)3,491.4

3,727.6

6.3

2.7-100.0

-97.3

-2.8

4,767

13.8

151.1

164.9

8.4

9,110

9,381

49.9

1,467.5

1,517.4

3.3

144

727

871

29.4

110.1

139.5

21.1

628

114

701

814

25.6

160.9

186.5

13.7

2,308

2,461

213

3,440

3,654

60.3

1,131.9

1,192.2

5.1

154

2,674

2,828

196

3,277

3,474

41.9

603.3

645.2

6.5

27

42

69

33

37

71

6.6

-4.9

1.7

379.9

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,174

23,06324,237236.3

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

77

1,129

1,206

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

125

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

271

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

35

Scenario 2:

Participation Rate Gap Closes by 2041 (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,2021–2041 (per cent)3,491.4

3,914.1

10.8

10.0

-100.0

-90.0

-11.1

4,780

26.7

151.1

177.7

15.0

9,110

9,414

82.7

1,467.5

1,550.2

5.3

178

727

905

63.6

110.1

173.7

36.6

628

146

701

847

57.6

160.9

218.6

26.4

2,308

2,461

242

3,440

3,682

89.0

1,131.9

1,220.9

7.3

154

2,674

2,828

222

3,277

3,499

67.6

603.3

670.9

10.1

27

42

69

46

37

84

19.6

-4.9

14.7

133.2

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,360

23,06324,423

422.7

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

84

1,129

1,213

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

138

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

303

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

Source: Statistics Canada Tables 98-10-0423-01, 17-10-0144-01, 17-10-0005-01

36

Appendix Table 2B:

Scenario 1:

Labour Force Projections for 2041, Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations,
High-growth Scenario

Participation Rate Gap Remains Unchanged (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,2021–2041 (per cent)3,491.4

4,024.7

13.3

34.7

-100.0

-65.2

-53.3

4,823

69.8

151.1

220.8

31.6

9,110

9,467

135.8

1,467.5

1,603.3

8.5

164

727

890

49.3

110.1

159.4

30.9

628

127

701

828

39.4

160.9

200.3

19.7

2,308

2,461

257

3,440

3,697

103.6

1,131.9

1,235.5

8.4

154

2,674

2,828

240

3,277

3,518

86.0

603.3

689.3

12.5

27

42

69

36

37

73

8.8

-4.9

3.9

224.0

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,471

23,06324,534

533.3

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

109

1,129

1,238

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

181

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

357

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

37

Scenario 2:

Participation Rate Gap Closes by 2041 (thousands of persons)
Labour force, 2021

Labour force, 2041

Change in labour force, 2021–2041
Total

Indigenous share oflabour force growth,2021-2041 (per cent)3,491.4

4,249.3

17.8

44.8

-100.0

-55.2

-81.3

4,841

88.1

151.1

239.2

36.8

9,110

9,510

178.9

1,467.5

1,646.4

10.9

202

727

929

87.8

110.1

197.9

44.4

628

163

701

864

75.0

160.9

235.9

31.8

2,308

2,461

291

3,440

3,731

138.0

1,131.9

1,269.9

10.9

154

2,674

2,828

271

3,277

3,549

116.9

603.3

720.2

16.2

27

42

69

49

37

87

22.5

-4.9

17.6

127.7

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

Indigenous

NonIndigenous

Total

NonIndigenous Indigenous

Canada937

19,572

20,5091,695

23,06324,758757.9

Atlantic

74

1,229

1,303

119

1,129

1,248

Quebec

112

4,491

4,602

200

4,642

Ontario

221

7,643

7,863

400

Manitoba

115

616

731

Saskatchewan

88

540

Alberta

153

British Columbia
North

Source: Statistics Canada Tables 98-10-0423-01, 17-10-0144-01, 17-10-0005-01

38

Appendix Table 3: Working-age Population by Age Category,
Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations, 2021
Panel A: Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

333

321

259

237

226

189

1,565

Atlantic

24

21

18

22

20

21

126

Quebec

32

32

29

27

31

31

183

Ontario

73

74

59

57

57

47

366

Manitoba

47

42

33

28

26

20

195

Saskatchewan

38

34

26

21

18

13

149

Alberta

56

55

43

35

30

22

241

British Columbia

54

52

42

39

38

31

256

North

11

11

8

7

6

5

48

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

4,469

5,296

5,144

4,790

5,287

7,069

32,055

Atlantic

248

255

275

338

358

439

1,913

Quebec

878

1,079

1,132

1,041

1,220

1,718

7,069

Ontario

1,771

2,069

1,885

1,822

1,989

2,638

12,173

Manitoba

138

154

152

135

147

208

935

Saskatchewan

109

125

140

112

131

184

802

Alberta

475

601

648

526

517

618

3,384

British Columbia

544

695

667

628

698

993

4,225

North

6

9

9

10

8

4

45

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous Population (thousands of persons)

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

39

Appendix Table 4: Labour Force: Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Populations
by Age Category, 2021
Panel A: Indigenous (thousands of persons)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

167

232

197

176

132

33

937

Atlantic

25

27

26

27

22

48

175

Quebec

40

45

40

41

36

68

270

Ontario

82

95

91

92

72

123

555

Manitoba

47

54

48

44

34

53

280

Saskatchewan

39

42

38

35

26

37

217

Alberta

64

77

69

64

49

67

390

British Columbia

56

65

64

64

49

82

380

North

11

13

11

10

8

10

63

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

2,726

4,549

4,470

4,110

3,510

1,110

20,476

Atlantic

157

218

239

283

221

58

1,176

Quebec

577

948

1,012

916

802

237

4,491

Ontario

1,018

1,750

1,604

1,537

1,321

412

7,642

Manitoba

93

133

135

119

99

36

616

Saskatchewan

73

110

126

100

92

39

539

Alberta

287

515

564

458

361

124

2,308

British Columbia

333

600

579

533

465

164

2,674

North

4

8

8

9

6

1

36

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous (thousands of persons)

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

40

Appendix Table 5: Labour Force Participation Rates of the Indigenous
and Non-Indigenous Populations by Age Category, 2021
Panel A: Indigenous (per cent)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

50.1

72.4

75.9

74.4

58.4

17.6

59.9

Atlantic

50.2

77.8

79.0

77.2

57.5

15.5

59.0

Quebec

56.2

77.5

82.2

79.7

60.4

15.1

61.0

Ontario

53.1

74.1

76.5

75.0

56.3

15.3

60.3

Manitoba

54.2

65.2

71.3

71.2

56.1

18.6

58.8

Saskatchewan

56.5

63.8

68.6

68.3

56.3

18.7

59.0

Alberta

54.0

73.7

77.0

74.3

61.5

21.2

63.5

British Columbia

43.5

76.6

77.2

75.1

60.2

20.6

60.3

North

39.4

65.0

69.5

69.9

61.2

23.5

55.8

15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

61.0

85.9

86.9

85.8

66.4

15.7

63.9

Atlantic

63.2

85.4

86.7

83.9

61.9

13.3

61.5

Quebec

65.7

87.8

89.4

88.0

65.7

13.8

63.5

Ontario

57.5

84.6

85.1

84.4

66.4

15.6

62.8

Manitoba

67.5

86.4

88.5

88.4

67.7

17.2

65.9

Saskatchewan

66.8

87.7

89.6

88.9

70.2

21.4

67.3

Alberta

60.4

85.7

87.0

87.0

69.9

20.1

68.2

British Columbia

61.3

86.3

86.7

84.9

66.6

16.5

63.3

North

69.5

91.0

92.5

91.6

76.2

31.4

81.1

CanadaPanel B: Non-Indigenous (per cent)Canada41

Panel C: Gap between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Rates (per cent)
15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64

65+

Working-age (15+)

10.9

13.5

11.0

11.4

8.0

-1.9

4.0

Atlantic

13.0

7.6

7.7

6.7

4.4

-2.2

2.5

Quebec

9.5

10.3

7.2

8.3

5.3

-1.3

2.6

Ontario

4.4

10.5

8.6

9.4

10.1

0.3

2.5

Manitoba

13.3

21.2

17.2

17.2

11.6

-1.4

7.1

Saskatchewan

10.3

23.9

21.0

20.6

13.9

2.7

8.3

Alberta

6.4

12.0

10.0

12.7

8.4

-1.1

4.7

British Columbia

17.8

9.7

9.5

9.8

6.4

-4.1

3.0

North

30.1

26.0

23.0

21.7

14.9

7.8

25.3

CanadaSource: Statistics Canada Tables 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0144-01, and 17-10-0057-01.

42

For more information, please contact:

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Email:

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