䝬 䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ䠎✀㢮䛾㟁Ꮚⓗ᝟ሗ✀㢮 㟁Ꮚⓗ᝟ሗ㻔㻝㻕㻌㻼㻻㻿㻌㻔㻼㼛㼕㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻿㼍㼘㼑㼟䠖㈍኎᫬Ⅼ㻕㻌䝕䞊䝍㻦㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㞟ィ䝕䞊䝍㻩㻪䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊䠖䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾㈍኎ືྥ䜢ṇ☜䛻▐᫬䛻ᢕᥱ䛷䛝䜛㻚䛧䛛䛧䚸㢳ᐈ䜢㆑ู䛷䛝䛺䛔㻚㻌๓⠇䠖኱つᶍ䝡䝆䝛䝇䝕䞊䝍䛸䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䜿䝔䜱 䜾㻩㻪఍ဨ䛸䛺䜛ᚲせ䛜䛺䛔㻚㼑㻚㼤㻚㻌䝁䞁䝡䝙䚸䝇䞊䝟䞊䛷䛾㈙䛔≀䞁䝡䝙 䝇 䝟 䛷䛾㈙䛔≀㻔㻞㻕㻌㻲㻿㻼䠄㻲㼞㼑㼝㼡㼑㼚㼠㻌㻿㼔㼛㼜㼜㼑㼞㼟㻌㻼㼞㼛㼓㼞㼍㼙䠅䝕䞊䝍㻦㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㻌㠀㞟ィ䝕䞊䝍㻩㻪䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊䠖㻪䝬䝛 䝆䝱 䠖㼍㻕䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾㈍኎ືྥ䜢ṇ☜䛻▐᫬䛻ᢕᥱ䠇㢳ᐈ䜢㆑ู㼎㻕㻌䇿ㄡ䛜ఱ䜢䛔䛴䚸䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䛸䛝䚸䛹䜣䛺౯᱁䛷䚸㼑㻚㼠㻚㼠㻚㈙䛳䛯䛛 㻫䇿䜢䝸䜰䝹䝍䜲䝮䛷ᢕᥱ↷஭ఙᙪ(ᮾ໭኱Ꮫ)㻩㻪㉎㈙๓䛻ධ఍䛜ᚲせ㻚㼑㻚㼤㻚㻌⯟✵఍♫䛾䝬䜲䝺䞊䝆䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䚸䝗䝷䝑䜾䝇䝖䜰䞉䝇䞊䝟䞊䞉ᐙ㟁㔞㈍ᗑ䛺䛹䛾䝫䜲䞁䝖䜹䞊䝗䝅䝇䝔䝮䝗䝷䝑䜾䝇䝖䜰䝇 䝟 ᐙ㟁㔞㈍ᗑ䛺䛹䛾䝫䜲䞁䝖䜹 䝗䝅䝇䝔䝮㻘㻌㼑㻚㼠㻚㼏㻚㼑㼠㼏
1POS䝅䝇䝔䝮䛸䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖=>⭾኱䛺ᕷሙྲྀᘬ䝕䞊䝍䠖䝡䝑䜾䝕䞊䝍2䝬 䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ㉎㈙グ㘓䜰䜲䝇䜽䝸䞊䝮䜰䜲䝇䜽䝸䝮 䝤䝷䞁䝗A౯᱁ ¥300䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁 䇾on”䠄ᐇ᪋䠅㻼㻻㻿㻌㻔㻼㼛㼕㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻿㼍㼘㼑㼟䠖㈍኎᫬Ⅼ㻕㻌䝕䞊䝍እⓗ⎔ቃኳೃ 䇾ᬕ䜜䇿Ẽ 䇾30Υ䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊䠖䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾㈍኎ືྥ䜢ṇ☜䛻▐᫬䛻ᢕᥱ䛷䛝䜛㻚䛧䛛䛧䚸㢳ᐈ䜢㆑ู䛷䛝䛺䛔㻚㻌㢳ᐈ(ዪᛶ)(2025ṓ䛟䜙䛔)䛭 ௚䛭䛾௚䞉䝤䝷䞁䝗A䛾⌧ᅾ䛾ᅾᗜỈ‽䛿?
䞉ఱ䛜䛔䜎䛾኎䜜➽䛛?
ఱ䛜䛔䜎䛾኎䜜➽䛛?
䞉䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺⌧ᅾ䛾⎔ቃ䛜㈍኎䛻㈉⊩䛧䛶䛔䜛䛛 ?
(1)ᗑ㢌䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁=>௒᪥䛾䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁䛿᭷ຠ䛛 ?
(2)Ẽ 䜔ኳೃᐇົ䛾⚄ヰ:䜰䜲䝇䜽䝸䞊䝮䛿䠏䠌Υ䜢㉸䛘䜛䛸⇿Ⓨⓗ䛻኎䜜䜛䜰䜲䝇䜽䝸䝮䛿䠏䠌Υ䜢㉸䛘䜛䛸⇿Ⓨⓗ䛻኎䜜䜛㻩㻪఍ဨ䛸䛺䜛ᚲせ䛜䛺䛔㻚㼑㻚㼤㻚㻌䝁䞁䝡䝙䚸䝇䞊䝟䞊䛷䛾㈙䛔≀3

5

FSP䝕䞊䝍䛸䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖఍ဨධ఍㉎㈙グ㘓䜰䜲䝇䜽䝸䞊䝮 䝤䝷䞁䝗A౯᱁ ¥300䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁 䇾on”䠄ᐇ᪋䠅Storeእⓗ⎔ቃኳೃ 䇾ᬕ䜜䇿Ẽ 䇾30Υ
30Υ㻲㻿㻼䠄㻲㼞㼑㼝㼡㼑㼚㼠㻌㻿㼔㼛㼜㼜㼑㼞㼟㻌㻼㼞㼛㼓㼞㼍㼙䠅䝕㻲㻿㻼䠄㻲㼞㼑㼝㼡㼑㼚㼠㻿㼔㼛㼜㼜㼑㼞㼟 㻼㼞㼛㼓㼞㼍㼙䠅䝕䞊䝍䝍䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊䠖㼍㻕㻌䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾㈍኎ືྥ䜢ṇ☜䛻▐᫬䛻ᢕᥱ䠇㢳ᐈ䜢㆑ู㼎㻕 䇿ㄡ䛜ఱ䜢䛔㼎㻕㻌䇿ㄡ䛜ఱ䜢䛔䛴䚸䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䛸䛝䚸䛹䜣䛺౯᱁䛷䚸䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䛸䛝 䛹䜣䛺౯᱁䛷㼑㻚㼠㻚㼏㻚㻌㈙䛳䛯䛛 㻫䇿䜢䝸䜰䝹䝍䜲䝮䛷ᢕᥱ㢳ᐈ(ዪᛶ)(2025ṓ䛟䜙䛔)䛭䛾௚᝟ሗᥦ౪㢳ᐈᒓᛶ䠄䝕䝰䜾䝷䝣䜱䝑䜽䝇䠅ዪᛶ,23ṓᒃఫᆅᇦ,ᐙ᪘ேᩘᏛṔ,཰ධ,䛭䛾௚䝬 䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛸᝟ሗ䞉䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺䜽䞊䝫䞁䜢㏦䜛䜉䛝䛛 ?
=>E䝯䞊䝹䛻䜘䜛ಶู໬䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁䠄䜹䝇䝍䝬䜲䝈䝗䞉䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁䠅䞉䛹䜣䛺㛵㐃ၟရ䜢㉎ධ䛧䛭䛖䛛䛹䜣䛺㛵㐃ၟရ䜢㉎ධ䛧䛭䛖䛛 ?
䠙䠚䝸䝁䝯䞁䝕䞊䝅䝵䞁䝅䝇䝔䝮䜲䞁䝍䞊䝛䝑䝖᭩ᗑ 䇾Amazon”
䠄ಶู໬ᗈ࿌䠅㻩㻪㉎㈙๓䛻ධ఍䛜ᚲせ㻪㉎㈙๓䛻ධ఍䛜ᚲせ㻚㼑㻚㼤㻚㻌⯟✵఍♫䛾䝬䜲䝺䞊䝆䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䚸䝗䝷䝑䜾䝇䝖䜰䞉䝇䞊䝟䞊䞉ᐙ㟁㔞㈍ᗑ䛺䛹䛾䝫䜲 䝖䜹 䝗䝅䝫䜲䞁䝖䜹䞊䝗䝅䝇䝔䝮㻘㻌㼑㻚㼠㻚㼏㻚䝮61䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹1䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹ᾘ㈝⪅䝟䝛䝹䝕䞊䝍ከ㡯㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹– ㉎㈙᫬䛾䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾ኚᩘ䜢ྵ䜐䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍– POS䝺䝆 䞉 ఍ဨ䜹䞊䝗 (FSP:FrequentShoppersProgram)– ᾘ㈝⪅䛤䛸䛻᫬⣔ิ䛷཰㞟ᾘ㈝⪅᫬⣔ิ㞟– ಶே䞉ᐙィ䛾ᒓᛶ䠄ᛶู䚸ᖺ㱋䚸⫋✀䚸ᖺ཰䚸etc䠅(1)⾲ ᾘ㈝⪅䝟䝛䝹䝕䞊䝍䛸ᒓᛶ䝕䞊䝍㢳ᐈID㉎㈙ᶵ఍㉎㈙

1112౯᱁䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁

ABCABC

A

77

50

155

100B

90

50

157

0

10

1

3C

90

50

122

00114A

90

53

126

0

1021A

68

51

94

00022

B

90

50

155

10031C

70

50

160

10032C

90

55

150

00033C

80

50

140

000㢳ᐈIDᛶูᖺ㱋⫋✀ᖺ཰

1⏨20ᘓ⠏5002ዪ40⮬Ⴀᴗ

800

3ዪ35

୺፬

0891䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹1䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹ከ㡯㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹㢳ᐈID㉎㈙ᶵ఍㉎㈙

ᾘ㈝⪅䛾␗㉁ᛶ

౯᱁A(2)

䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁BCABC

11A

77

50

155

10012

B

90

50

157

0

1013C

90

50

122

00

114

A

90

53

126

0

1021A

68

51

94

00022

B

90

50

155

10031C

70

50

160

10032C

90

55

150

00033C

80

50

140

000(3)– ඲䝕䞊䝍䜢䝥䞊䝹඲䝕 䝍䜢䝥 䝹– ᾘ㈝⪅ඹ㏻䠄௦⾲ⓗᾘ㈝⪅䠅䛾᥎ᐃ್– 䝬䝇䞉䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾– ᾘ㈝⪅䛾␗㉁ᛶ䜢↓ど
10111䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹㝵ᒙ䝧䜲䝈䛻䜘䜛␗㉁ᛶ䝰䝕䝸䞁䜾^C , C ,..., C
21222T2: Z2`

ᾘ㈝⪅䛾␗㉁ᛶ
౯᱁^C , C ,..., C : Z `11䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁㢳ᐈID㉎㈙
ᶵ఍㉎㈙

1

1A

7750

155

10012B

90

50

157

01013C

9050

122

00114A90

53

126

0

1021A

68

51

94

00022B9050

155

10031C

70

50

160

10032C

90

55

150

00033C

80

50

140

000A

BCAB

121T1

^C , C ,..., C : Z `1313T3323C㢳ᐈIDᛶูᖺ㱋⫋✀ᖺ཰1⏨

20

ᘓ⠏

500

2

ዪ40⮬Ⴀᴗ800

3

ዪ

35

୺፬

0C:⾜ື䝕䞊䝍⾜ື䝕 䝍Z:ᒓᛶ䝕䞊䝍^C , C ,..., CH1H2

ඹ㏻ᛶ

HTH䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾䛾䝕䞊䝍䠖Îከ䛟䛾ពᛮỴᐃ୺య䛻㛵䛩䜛᝟ሗ䠄䝟䝛䝹䠈䝃䞊䝧䜲䠅Î ྛ୺య䛾䝕䞊䝍䛜ᑡ䛺䛔Î ඲య䛷㞟ィÎ ྛ୺య䛾␗㉁ᛶ䜢↓ど– ᾘ㈝⪅ಶู䛾᥎ᐃ್– 䝍䞊䝀䝑䝖䞉䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾– 䝻䜲䝲䝹䝔䜱䜔཯ᛂಀᩘ䛜᫬㛫୙ኚ䛸䛿㝈䜙䛺䛔㉎㈙䞉ᾘ㈝⤒㦂䛻䜘䜚ኚ໬䛩䜛䛸⪃䛘䜛䛾䛜୍⯡ⓗ12^C , C ,..., C: ZH `41

42

4T4: Z4`Î ྛ୺య㛫䛾᝟ሗ䜢䝥䞊䝹䛩䜛䝰䝕䝹౛䛘䜀 䝷䞁䝎䝮ຠᯝ䝰䝕䝹EhE  H h , ࠉࠉࠉE hZ hT  H h , ࠉࠉࠉࠉ䞉඾ᆺⓗᵓ㐀䠄䠍䠅୺యෆ⾜ື Î ᑬᗘ㛵ᩘ䠄䠎䠅୺య㛫⾜ື Î ␗㉁ᛶ䛾ศᕸ䠄䠏䠅ពᛮỴᐃ䝰䝕䝹䠄䠍䠅౯᱁㜈್䛾᥎ᐃMarketingScience(2006):TeruiandDahanag()䖃 ౯᱁㜈್᥎ᐃ್䛾ศᕸ౯᱁㜈್᥎ᐃ್ ศᕸ౯᱁㜈್䛾ಶู᥎ᐃຠ⏝ຠ⏝୰❧Ⅼ౯᱁ཷᐜᇦ(ᑠ኎౯᱁䠙ཧ↷౯᱁䠄್䛤䜝ឤ)(㡰ᛂỈ‽⌮ㄽ䠅฼ᚓ䝺䝆䞊䝮ᦆኻ䝺䝆䞊䝮䠄ᑠ኎౯᱁䠘ཧ↷౯᱁䠅䠄ᑠ኎౯᱁䠚ཧ↷౯᱁䠅(1) 25%௨ୖ䝕䜱䝇䜹䜴䞁䝖䛧䛺䛔䛸཯ᛂ䛧䛺䛔ே䜒䛔䜜䜀
r2

r10.5%䛷䜒཯ᛂ䛩䜛㢳ᐈ䛜䛔䜛౯᱁㜈್(2) 20%௨ୖ್ୖ䛢䛧䛶䜒ᣄྰ䛧䛺䛔ே䜒䛔䜜䜀㻜㻚㻡㻑䛷䜒ᣄྰ䛩䜛㢳ᐈ䛜䛔䜛䠙䠚ಶู䛾཯ᛂᗘ䛻ᛂ䛨䛶ཷᐜ䛥䜜䜛౯᱁ᖏ䛜␗䛺䜛䠚ಶู䛾཯ᛂᗘ䛻ᛂ䛨䛶ཷᐜ䛥䜜䜛౯᱁ᖏ䛜␗䛺䜛䝥䝻䝇䝨䜽䝖⌮ㄽ(Kahmenan&Tversky)

ྠ໬ᑐẚ⌮ㄽ
14

䠄2䠅 ౯᱁䜹䝇䝍䝬䜲䝊䞊䝅䝵䞁
JournalofInteractiveMarketing(2006):TeruiandDahana15㠀䜹䝇䝍䝬䜲䝊䞊䝅䝵䞁౯᱁ (flatpricing)䛸䛾ẚ㍑
䖃ṇ䛾Წ䜾䝷䝣䜹䝇䝍䝬䜲䝈౯᱁䛜䜘䜚ඃ఩␗㉁౯᱁㜈್㻩㻪㻌ྛᾘ㈝⪅䛾౯᱁䛻㕌ឤ䛺㡿ᇦ㻪 ྛᾘ㈝⪅䛾౯᱁䛻㕌ឤ䛺㡿ᇦ䝕䜱䝇䜹䜴䞁䝖ୗ㝈䛾౯᱁㜈್䜢㉺䛘䛺䛔䝕䜱䝇䜹䜴䞁䝖᱁ ್ ㉺䝕䇾㼞㻝㻌㻌㻪㻌㻼 䇵㻾㻼㻌㻌㻪㻜㻌䇾㻌㻌㻌㻩㻪㻌㻌䝻䝇䠄 ᾘ㈝⪅䛿཯ᛂ䛧䛺䛔䛯䜑䠅䖃␗䛺䜛䝬䞊䝆䞁䛿␗䛺䜛䖃␗䛺䜛䝬䝆䞁䛿␗䛺䜛ᙧ䜢⏕䜐䛧䛛䛧⤖ㄽ䛿ྠ䛨್ୖ䛢ୖ㝈䛾౯᱁㜈್䜢㉺䛘䛺䛔್ୖ䛢 䇾 㻜㻌㻨㻌㻼㻙㻾㻼 㻨㻌㼞㻞 䇾㻩㻪㻌฼┈䠄ᾘ㈝⪅䛿್ୖ䛢䜢ឤ䛨䛺䛔䠅␗㉁౯᱁㜈್䛾᝟ሗ䛿䛴䛞䛾䠎䛴䛾Ⅼ䛷㈉⊩㻝㻚ୗ㝈䛾౯᱁㜈್䜢㉺䛘䛺䛔䝕䜱䝇䜹䜴䞁䝖 䛻䜘䜛䝻䝇䜢᭱ᑠ໬㻞㻚ୖ㝈䛾౯᱁㜈್䜢㉺䛘䛺䛔್ୖ䛢 䛻䜘䜛฼┈䜢᭱኱໬1617

䝤䝷䞁䝗䛻ᑐ䛩䜛䇿㣬䛝䇿䛾ືⓗኚ໬䛾ಶேู ᐃ䛸〇ရ䞉ရᥞ䛘ᡓ␎

DynamicBrandSatiation↷஭ఙᙪ(ᮾ໭኱Ꮫ)㛗㇂ᕝ ⩧ᖹ
⩧ᖹ*↷஭ ఙᙪ*
GregM.Allenby***ᮾ໭኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔⤒῭Ꮫ◊✲⛉**FisherCollegeofBusiness,OhioStateUniversity
18

ᴫせ191䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹• ᾘ㈝⪅䛾ຠ⏝㛵ᩘ䜢⏝䛔䛯」ᩘ㞳ᩓ䝰䝕䝹䜢䝧䞊䝇䛸䛧䛶䚸䝤䝷䞁䝗䛻ᑐ䛩䜛䇿㣬䛝䇿䜢ືⓗᅉᏊ䝰䝕䝹䛻䜘䜚䝤䝷䞁䝗⩌䛻௜㝶䛩䜛ᅉᏊ㈇Ⲵ㔞䛸ಶே䛻௜㝶䛩䜛ᅉᏊ䝇䝁䜰䛻ศゎ䛩䜛䚹ከ㡯㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹
(1)• 䜎䛯䇿㣬䛝䇿䜢ྛ䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾ᡂศ䝕䞊䝍䛻ᅇᖐ䛥䛫䜛䛣䛸䛻䜘䜚䚸㣬䛝䛥䛫䜛ᡂศ䚸㣬䛝䛥䛫䛺䛔ᡂศ䚸୰❧䛺ᡂศ䜢᳨ฟ䛧䚸䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾ᨵⰋ䞉㛤Ⓨᡓ␎䛻ྥ䛡䛯ᡂศ䛾≉ᚩ 䛡䜢⾜䛖䚹䛡䛯ᡂศ䛾≉ᚩ䛵䛡䜢⾜䛖䚹• 䛥䜙䛻ಶேู䛻᥎ᐃ䛥䜜䛯ᅉᏊ䝇䝁䜰䛾ືⓗኚ໬䛛䜙䇿㣬䛝䇿䛾≧ែ䜢ᤊ䛘䛛䜙㣬䛝 䛾≧ែ䜢ᤊ䛘䚸⿵ൾ౯್䛻䜒䛸䛵䛟౯್⿵ൾ౯್䛻䜒䛸䛵䛟౯್ホ౯䜢㏻䛨䛯ရᥞ䛘ᡓ␎䜢ᥦ♧䛩䜛䚹
20

22

1䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹

1䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹᫬㛫䛾␗㉁ᛶ䠄䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇䠅᫬㛫䛾␗㉁ᛶ䠄䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇䠅(4)(5)

㢳ᐈ
ID㉎㈙
ᶵ఍㉎㈙

1

1

1

2

11౯᱁䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁

AB

CAB

A

77

50

155

10C0B

9050

157

0

103C9050

1220014A90

53

126

01021A6851

9400022B9050

155

100

31C

70

50

160

10032C

90

55

150

00033C

80

50

140

000– ᾘ㈝⪅䞉᫬㛫ู䛾᥎ᐃ್ᾘ㈝⪅ ᫬㛫ู䛾᥎ᐃ್– 䝤䝷䞁䝗䝻䜲䝲䝹䝔䜱䛾᥎⛣– ḟᮇ䛾㉎㈙ண
– ཎᅉ䛾⪃ᐹ䞉䝰䝕䝹໬
231䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹

241䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹ከ㡯㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹䛾㝈⏺

」ᩘྠ᫬㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹 (Kimetal.2002)– 」ᩘ䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾ྠ᫬㉎㈙– ㉎㈙ಶᩘэ ୗ⾲⾲ ((b)) 䛾䝕䞊䝍䛻䛿ᑐᛂ䛷䛝䛺䛔

䠖ຠ⏝㛵ᩘ
ຠ 㛵ᩘ

(6)
䠖ண⟬ไ⣙ᘧ

⾲ 」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍䝍(b) 」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍(a)㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍㉎㈙ᶵ఍
12345A䝤䝷䞁䝗BC

1
10000010100010㉎㈙ᶵ఍
12
345A

䝤䝷䞁䝗
BC

2
10
0001
1
03

10022
25

26

1䠊䝤䝷䞁䝗㑅ᢥ䝰䝕䝹2䠊┠ⓗᾘ㈝⪅䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜈䛾㑅ዲ䛿ᵝ䚻䛺⌮⏤䛷ኚ໬

ᅗ1 ➃Ⅼゎ䛸ෆ㒊ゎ䠄2䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾ሙྜ䠅
➃Ⅼゎ

x2

x2

x1

0x1 ! 0x2

x2 ! 0x1x2 ! 0x1x1

ண⟬ไ⣙– ౯᱁䞉䝥䝻䝰䞊䝅䝵䞁– ᪂〇ရ䛾ཧධ– ᾘ㈝⪅ᚰ⌮䛾ኚ໬ᾘ㈝⪅ኚ– ㉎㈙䞉ᾘ㈝⤒㦂– 䝤䝷䞁䝗䜎䛯䛿ᒓᛶ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛㣬䛝

ෆ㒊ゎ

x2

↓ᕪู᭤⥺

䝤䝷䞁䝗䛻ᑐ䛩䜛䛂㣬䛝䠄㣬࿴䠅䛃䜢⪃៖䛧䛯◊✲Kimetal.(2002,2007),Bhat(2005),Satomuraetal.(2011a),etc.

27282䠊┠ⓗ2䠊┠ⓗᮏ◊✲䛾≉ᚩᮏ◊✲䛾≉ᚩ

1䠊」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍䠄MultipleDiscretenessData䠅」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕 䝍䠄 l l䠅

2 ᒓᛶ䝕䞊䝍䛾฼⏝2䠊ᒓᛶ䝕䞊䝍䛾฼⏝– ၟရ䛿ከᩘ䛾ᒓᛶ䛛䜙ᵓᡂ䠄䝃䜲䝈䚸䝣䝺䞊䝞䞊䚸etc.䠅
– ᒓᛶ䛾㉎㈙䛻୚䛘䜛ᙳ㡪– ྠ䜹䝔䝂䝸ෆ䛷」ᩘ䝤䝷䞁䝗䛾㉎㈙– ᾘ㈝⪅䛾㉎㈙䜢༢⊂䝤䝷䞁䝗㉎㈙䠄➃Ⅼゎ䠅䛸」ᩘ䝤䝷䞁䝗㉎㈙䠄ෆ㒊ゎ䠅䜢䝰䝕䝹䛷⾲⌧– 䜘䜚ᗈ䛔⠊ᅖ䛾䝕䞊䝍䜢฼⏝ྍ⬟䜘䜚ᗈ ⠊ᅖ 䝕 䝍䜢฼⏝ྍ⬟㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕 䝍㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍㉎㈙ᶵ఍
1
234
53 㣬䛝䜢⾲䛩䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䛻ᅉᏊᵓ㐀
3䠊㣬䛝䜢⾲䛩䝟䝷䝯䝍䛻ᅉᏊᵓ㐀– ከḟඖ䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䛾⦰⣙– 㣬䛝䜢ᒓᛶᅛ᭷䛸ᾘ㈝⪅ᅛ᭷䛾ຠᯝ䜈ศゎ」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕 䝍」ᩘ㞳ᩓ㑅ᢥ䝕䞊䝍

A

䝤䝷䞁䝗
B

C

1
10000010100010㉎㈙ᶵ఍
12345A䝤䝷䞁䝗BC

2
100001103100224 䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇
4䠊䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇– ㉎㈙䞉ᾘ㈝⤒㦂䛻䜘䜛㣬䛝䛾ືⓗኚ໬– ືⓗᅉᏊ䝰䝕䝹䛸䝖䝺䞁䝗䝰䝕䝹
29

30

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹

ຠ⏝㛵ᩘ (basedonBhat 2007andSatomura etal.2011b)

㝈⏺ຠ⏝
(7)

(8)

ຠ⏝㝈⏺ຠ⏝䞉 䝕䞊䝍
1234

1234

䞉 䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍

31

32

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹☜⋡䝰䝕䝹䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇䛾䝰䝕䝹໬(9)1䠊 䝖䝺䞁䝗䝰䝕䝹䝕 䠄☜ᐃⓗ䝖䝺䞁䝗䠅
( )
(12)

ᾘ㈝⪅䛾␗㉁ᛶ :ᒓᛶ䛾䝰䝕䝹໬
( )
(10)
(11)

(13)

2 ືⓗᅉᏊ䝰䝕䝹䠄☜⋡ⓗ䝖䝺䞁䝗䠅2䠊ືⓗᅉᏊ䝰䝕䝹
(14)
(15)

33

34

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹㆑ูᛶ䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍ᘧ(10)(11)(16)

Geweke andZhou(1996)
and Zhou(1996)

ᘧ(12)(13)ẚ㍑䝰䝕䝹
Baseline䝰䝕䝹ᘧ(14)(15)Satiation䝰䝕䝹э 2ᅉᏊ䝰䝕䝹䜢ྵ䜑䛯ྜィ14䝰䝕䝹䛷ẚ㍑
35

3䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹

363䠊ᥦ᱌䝰䝕䝹᥎ᐃ䠖ᑬᗘᑟฟ

(21)
(22)

䞉 䝷䜾䝷䞁䝆䝳㛵ᩘ(17)䞉 䜻䝳䞊䞁=䝍䝑䜹䞊᮲௳
(23)
(18)
( )
(19)

ᘧ(21) : ㉎㈙䛒䜚䛾ᑬᗘ
ᘧ(21):㉎㈙䛒䜚䛾ᑬᗘ

ᘧ(22) : ㉎㈙䛺䛧䛾ᑬᗘ
ᘧ(22):㉎㈙䛺䛧䛾ᑬᗘ(20)3738

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ
⾲1 䝤䝷䞁䝗䞉ᒓᛶ䝕䞊䝍䝇䝘䝑䜽ⳫᏊ䛾ᐇ㦂䝕䞊䝍 (Kimetal.2007)(1)⿕㦂⪅䜈2䝗䝹䛾ண⟬䜢ᨭ⤥(1)
⿕㦂⪅䜈2䝗䝹䛾ண⟬䜢ᨭ⤥(2)඲8✀䞉౯᱁0.33䝗䝹䛾䝇䝘䝑䜽ⳫᏊ䜢㉎㈙䛧䛶䜒䜙䛖• 䝇䝘䝑䜽䛿12䛾ᒓᛶ䛛䜙ᵓᡂ• ⿕㦂⪅䛿ண⟬ෆ䛷䝇䝘䝑䜽䜢㉎㈙䠄6ಶ=1.98䝗䝹䜎䛷㉎㈙ྍ䠅• ண⟬䜢඲䛶౑䛔ษ䜙䛺䛟䛶䜒䜘䛔㻭㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻌㻟㻰㻮㻦㻌㻿㼜㼕㼏㼕㼑㼞㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻯㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻟㻰㻰㻦㻌㻮㼍㼖㼍㻌㻼㼕㼏㼍㼚㼠㼑㻱㻦㻌㻶㼍㼘㼍㼜㼑㼚㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼐㼐㼍㼞㻌㻟㻰㻲㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻳㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻴㻦㻌㻿㼛㼚㼕㼏㻌㻿㼛㼡㼞㻌㻯㼞㼑㼍㼙㼏㻝㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㼏㻞㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻞㻚㻝㻣㼏㻟㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻟㻚㻝㻣㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻟㻚㻝㻣㻜㻚㻢㻣㼏㻠㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻡㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㼏㻡㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻡㻜㼏㻤㻝㻚㻡㻜㻜㻚㻢㻣㻝㻚㻟㻟㻟㻚㻢㻣㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻡㻜㻝㻚㻟㻟㻜㻚㻜㻜㼏㻥㻠㻚㻜㻜㻟㻚㻤㻟㻠㻚㻝㻣㻟㻚㻟㻟㻠㻚㻝㻣㻠㻚㻜㻜㻠㻚㻝㻣㻟㻚㻤㻟㼏㻝㻜㻞㻚㻜㻜㻠㻚㻞㻡㻠㻚㻜㻜㻡㻚㻡㻜㻡㻚㻜㻜㻞㻚㻜㻜㻠㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㼏㻝㻝㻜㻚㻜㻜㻞㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻞㻚㻞㻡㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㼏㻝㻞㻝㻚㻣㻡㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻣㻡㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜⾲2 ㉎㈙䝕䞊䝍⤫ィ㻼㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㼕㼚㼏㼕㼐㼑㼚㼏㼑㻭㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻌㻟㻰㻮㻦㻌㻿㼜㼕㼏㼕㼑㼞㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻯 㻯 㼘 㻾㻯㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻟㻰㼔 㻟㻰㻰㻦㻌㻮㼍㼖㼍㻌㻼㼕㼏㼍㼚㼠㼑㻱㻦㻌㻶㼍㼘㼍㼜㼑㼚㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼐㼐㼍㼞㻌㻟㻰㻲㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻳㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻴㻦㻌㻿㼛㼚㼕㼏㻌㻿㼛㼡㼞㻌㻯㼞㼑㼍㼙㼀㼛㼠㼍㼘㻝㻢㻤㻝㻣㻣㻝㻤㻤㻝㻤㻜㻝㻥㻜㻞㻠㻠㻞㻟㻡㻞㻝㻤㻝㻢㻜㻜39㼀㼛㼠㼍㼘㼜㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㼝㼡㼍㼚㼠㼕㼠㼥㻞㻞㻠㻞㻢㻞㻞㻟㻝㻞㻟㻡㻞㻥㻡㻠㻠㻢㻟㻟㻤㻞㻣㻣㻞㻟㻜㻤㻯㼛㼞㼚㼑㼞㼟㼛㼘㼡㼠㼕㼛㼚㻵㼚㼠㼑㼞㼕㼛㼞㼟㼛㼘㼡㼠㼕㼛㼚㻙㻠㻌㻔㻚㻜㻞㻕㻙㻙㻞㻌㻔㻚㻜㻝㻕㻢㻌㻔㻚㻜㻞㻕㻙㻙㻝㻞㻌㻔㻜㻚㻜㻝㻕㻝㻢㻤㻌㻔㻝㻚㻜㻜㻕㻝㻣㻟㻌㻔㻜㻚㻥㻤㻕㻝㻤㻤 㻔㻝 㻜㻜㻕㻝㻤㻤㻌㻔㻝㻚㻜㻜㻕㻝㻤㻜㻌㻔㻝㻚㻜㻜㻕㻝㻤㻤㻌㻔㻜㻚㻥㻥㻕㻞㻟㻤㻌㻔㻜㻚㻥㻤㻕㻞㻟㻡㻌㻔㻝㻚㻜㻜㻕㻞㻝㻤㻌㻔㻝㻚㻜㻜㻕㻝㻡㻤㻤㻌㻔㻜㻚㻥㻥㻕ᣓᘼෆ䛿䝟䞊䝉䞁䝔䞊䝆4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

LogML:䝰䝕䝹䛾ᑐᩘᑬᗘ㼏㻣㻠㻚㻜㻜㻟㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻤㻤㻠㻚㻞㻡㻠㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻟㻚㻟㻤䝇䝘䝑䜽䛾ᙧ≧䚸䝝䞊䝤䞉䝏䞊䝈䞉䝇䝟䜲䝇䛾ྵ᭷㔞䛺䛹(3)ண⟬2䝗䝹ෆ䛷౑䜟䛺䛛䛳䛯ศ䛿⿕㦂⪅䜈ᨭ⤥䠄እ㒊㈈䠅
(4) ⿕㦂⪅101ே䛻ᑐ䛧(1)⿕㦂⪅101ே䛻ᑐ䛧(1)䡚(3)䜢7㐌㛫⾜䛔䝕䞊䝍䜢཰㞟(3)䜢7㐌㛫⾜䛔䝕 䝍䜢཰㞟⾲ 䝰䝕䝹ẚ㍑
⾲3
䝕 ẚ㍑㻹㼛㼐㼑㼘㻌㻔㻿㼍㼠㼕㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻘㻌㻮㼍㼟㼑㼘㼕㼚㼑㻕㻸㼛㼓㻌㻹㻸㻺㼛㻌㻰㼥㼚㼍㼙㼕㼏㻔㻝㻕㻌㻔㻴㼛㼙㼛㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻡㻜㻥㻜㻚㻠㻔㻞㻕 㻔㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛 㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻔㻞㻕㻌㻔㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻡㻜㻣㻡㻡㻜㻣㻡㻚㻡㻡㻔㻟㻕㻌㻔㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻡㻜㻢㻜㻚㻠㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻔㻠㻕㻌㻔㻸㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻡㻜㻣㻢㻚㻞㻔㻡㻕㻌㻔㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻡㻝㻢㻥㻚㻟㻔 㻕㻔㻔㻢㻕㻌㻔㻸㼛㼓㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻕㻙㻡㻜㻟㻟㻚㻡㻰㼥㼚㻚㻌㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻔㻣㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻴㼑㼠㼑㼞㼛㻕㻙㻠㻤㻠㻣㻚㻞㻔㻤㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻘㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻸㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㻙㻞㻡㻤㻝㻚㻤㻔㻥 㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻕 㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㼚㼐㻕㻙 㻞㻠㻟㻜㻚㻜㻔㻝㻜㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻸㼛㼓㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㻙㻞㻢㻡㻢㻚㻠㻔㻝㻝㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻰㼥㼚㻘㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻕㻙㻟㻜㻥㻡㻚㻝㻺㼛㻌㻯㼔㼍㼞㼍㼏㼠㼑㼞㼕㼟㼠㼕㼏㼟 㻔㻝㻞㻕㻌㻮㼍㼟㼑㼘㼕㼚㼑㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㻙㻞㻣㻣㻟㻚㻝㻔㻝㻟㻕 㻮 㼠㼔 㻔㻰 㻲 㼠 㻿 㼀 㼐㻕㻔㻝㻟㻕㻌㻮㼛㼠㼔㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㻙㻞㻢㻥㻡㻚㻡㻞㻢㻥㻡 㻡㻞㻌㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㼟㻔㻝㻠㻕㻌㻔㻰㼥㼚㻚㻲㼍㼏㼠㼛㼞㻘㻌㻿㼝㻚㼀㼞㼑㼚㼐㻕㻙㻞㻠㻟㻟㻚㻞㼏㻢㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻝㻚㻟㻟㻝㻚㻤㻟㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜㻜㻚㻜㻜404䠊ᐇドศᯒ㻰㻵㻯㻝㻜㻣㻝㻝㻝㻝㻝㻜㻥㻝㻝㻜㻞㻠㻝㻝㻠㻠㻜㻝㻝㻡㻥㻝㻝㻝㻠㻟㻤㻝㻜㻥㻣㻡㻣㻡㻞㻝㻣㻝㻟㻢㻣㻣㻠㻣㻥㻝㻞㻞㻣㻣㻤㻤㻣㻞㻢㻢㻣㻝㻡㻞⾲4(a) 䝤䝷䞁䝗䝺䝧䝹䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍㻭㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻌㻟㻰㻮㻦㻌㻿㼜㼕㼏㼕㼑㼞㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻯㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻟㻰㻰㻦㻌㻮㼍㼖㼍㻌㻼㼕㼏㼍㼚㼠㼑㻱㻦㻌㻶㼍㼘㼍㼜㼑㼚㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼐㼐㼍㼞㻌㻟㻰㻲㻦㻌㻺㼍㼏㼔㼛㻌㻯㼔㼑㼑㼟㼕㼑㼞㻳㻦㻌㻯㼛㼛㼘㼑㼞㻌㻾㼍㼚㼏㼔㻌㻴㻦㻌㻿㼛㼚㼕㼏㻌㻿㼛㼡㼞㻌㻯㼞㼑㼍㼙E[J jht ] E[cD jht ]E[ca ]

E[\ jht ] E[cE jht ]㼙㼑㼍㼚㻜㻚㻜㻤㻢㻜㻚㻟㻜㻤㻜㻚㻝㻝㻣㻜㻚㻟㻡㻞㻜㻚㻟㻟㻠㻜㻚㻟㻢㻜㻜㻚㻟㻥㻜㻜㻚㻞㻢㻠㼙㼑㼍㼚㻜㻚㻢㻞㻜㻜㻚㻜㻞㻡㻜㻚㻡㻟㻣㻙㻜㻚㻜㻞㻞㻜㻚㻝㻜㻡㻙㻜㻚㻟㻤㻜㻙㻜㻚㻠㻢㻟㻙㻜㻚㻝㻡㻢㼙㼑㼍㼚㻙㻡㻚㻠㻝㻡㻙㻣㻚㻠㻣㻡㻙㻢㻚㻟㻡㻠㻙㻥㻚㻣㻥㻢㻙㻥㻚㻞㻢㻡㻙㻠㻚㻝㻤㻤㻙㻡㻚㻝㻞㻣㻙㻡㻚㻢㻟㻢㼙㼑㼐㼕㼍㼚㻜㻚㻝㻝㻠㻜㻚㻞㻣㻥㻜㻚㻝㻢㻝㻜㻚㻟㻝㻤㻜㻚㻟㻜㻤㻜㻚㻟㻢㻤㻜㻚㻟㻣㻜㻜㻚㻞㻠㻟㼙㼑㼐㼕㼍㼚㻙㻞㻚㻥㻞㻡㻙㻟㻚㻜㻤㻡㻙㻞㻚㻣㻥㻜㻙㻟㻚㻢㻞㻡㻙㻟㻚㻤㻜㻠㻙㻝㻚㻜㻡㻜㻙㻝㻚㻜㻞㻣㻙㻞㻚㻠㻤㻠ᩘ್䛿ᾘ㈝⪅䞉᫬㛫඲䛶䛾ᖹᆒ䞉୰ኸ್

DIC :MCMC䛻䛚䛡䜛AICᣦᶆ௨ୗ䛷䛿䚸䛣䛾䝰䝕䝹䛾᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ䛻䜘䜛⪃ᐹ䜢⾜䛖

4142

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

⾲4(b) ᒓᛶ䝺䝧䝹䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍means.d

25

35

⿕㦂⪅ᩘ

Frequency

1.0
s.d

10

15

20

1.5

30
25
520
15

Frequency

50.5
5

10
−4−20

2

40
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

−4−20ᩘ್䛿ᾘ㈝⪅䞉᫬㛫඲䛶䛾ᖹᆒ್2

4−4−2024

mean

1ิ┠䠖㣬䛝䜔䛩䛔ᒓᛶ (c5,9,12,10)䚸㣬䛝䛻䛟䛔ᒓᛶ(c1,3,11,7,8)2ิ┠䠖ᒓᛶᅛ᭷䛾Satiation䠄ᅉᏊ㈇Ⲵ㔞䠅
4ิ┠䠖Baseline䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䛾partworthྛᒓᛶ䛾≉ᚩ– c3=(Baseline:୰,Satiation:ప)c3=(Baseline : ୰ Satiation : ప)
– c12=(Baseline:㧗 ,Satiation:㧗)
43

44

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

ᅗ4 ⿕㦂⪅䝺䝧䝹䛾excitement䝇䝁䜰᫬⣔ิ

ᅗ4 ⿕㦂⪅䝺䝧䝹䛾excitement䝇䝁䜰᫬⣔ิ(a)ID#99(increasingtrend)(b)ID#26(decreasingtrend)

f ht

−1.0

−2−0.5−100.0
0

10.5

21.03

f ht

−3••
•
•

fˆhTh  fˆh15㻙㻝㻚㻞㻞㻣㻙㻝㻚㻜㻜㻣㻜㻚㻟㻞㻥㻜㻚㻜㻤㻤㻙㻜㻚㻤㻤㻣㻙㻜㻚㻡㻜㻢㻙㻜㻚㻞㻞㻝㻙㻜㻚㻢㻤㻥㻙㻜㻚㻢㻠㻤㻙㻜㻚㻢㻟㻤㻙㻜㻚㻟㻞㻡㻜㻚㻥㻝㻟(c)0㻔㻜㻚㻜㻡㻣㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻟㻟㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻝㻞㻕㻔㻜㻚㻝㻜㻠㻕㻔㻔㻜㻚㻞㻝㻣㻕㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻡㻟㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻜㻣㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻝㻢㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻜㻡㻕㻔㻔㻜㻚㻜㻜㻢㻕㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻞㻣㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻟㻝㻕(b) E[ fˆht ] v.s s.d [ fˆht ]25㻜㻚㻝㻤㻣㻜㻚㻝㻠㻥㻜㻚㻜㻢㻥㻜㻚㻟㻝㻝㻜㻚㻠㻣㻞㻜㻚㻝㻡㻞㻜㻚㻜㻠㻢㻜㻚㻜㻣㻥㻜㻚㻜㻠㻜㻜㻚㻜㻠㻝㻜㻚㻝㻝㻞㻜㻚㻝㻝㻢E[ fˆht ] and s.d [ fˆht ]200㻙㻔㻜㻚㻜㻠㻢㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻥㻜㻕㻔㻜㻚㻝㻜㻝㻕㻔㻔㻜㻚㻜㻣㻟㻕㻕㻔㻜㻚㻝㻞㻠㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻟㻥㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻟㻤㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻣㻜㻕㻔㻔㻜㻚㻜㻠㻜㻕㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻢㻝㻕㻔㻜㻚㻜㻥㻣㻕(a)15㻝㻚㻜㻜㻜㻙㻜㻚㻝㻡㻝㻜㻚㻢㻥㻢㻙㻜㻚㻝㻡㻣㻙㻝㻚㻞㻜㻞㻙㻜㻚㻞㻝㻞㻜㻚㻡㻤㻣㻜㻚㻠㻠㻝㻙㻜㻚㻠㻟㻤㻙㻜㻚㻟㻡㻣㻜㻚㻢㻤㻤㻙㻜㻚㻡㻞㻣

E[ E kht ]Frequency㻙㻜㻚㻞㻣㻟㻜㻚㻜㻢㻜㻙㻜㻚㻝㻥㻣
㻜㻚㻜㻢㻞
㻜㻚㻟㻡㻜
㻜㻚㻜㻢㻠
㻙㻜㻚㻝㻡㻞㻙㻜㻚㻝㻝㻝㻜㻚㻝㻡㻣㻜㻚㻝㻞㻢㻙㻜㻚㻝㻤㻟㻜㻚㻝㻠㻟`10㼏㻝㼏㻞㼏㻟㼏㻠㼏㻡㼏㻢㼏㻣㼏㻤㼏㻥㼏㻝㻜㼏㻝㻝㼏㻝㻞^diagg V 12 ," , V k2

6a5

E[D kht ]0㻯㼔㼍㼞㼍㼏㼠㼑㼞㼕㼟㼠㼕㼏㼟㼏㼏t1㻼㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㻻㼏㼏㼍㼟㼕㼛㼚fht㻝㻞㻟㻠㻡㻢㻜㻚㻢㻥㻡㻝㻚㻜㻜㻣㻝㻚㻠㻞㻝㻞 㻜㻡㻠㻞㻚㻜㻡㻠㻞㻚㻤㻜㻜㻟㻚㻜㻡㻣23451㻼㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼜㼟㼑㻌㻾㼑㼏㼛㼞㼐㻭㻝㻟㻜㻜㻜㻜㻮㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻯㻝㻝㻝㻜㻜㻜㻰㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻱㻝㻞㻜㻝㻝㻝t6㻲㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻳㻝㻜㻝㻜㻜㻜㻴㻝㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻏㻌㼛㼒㼜㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㻼㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㻻㼏㼏㼍㼟㼠㼕㼛㼚fht㻡㻢㻞㻝㻝㻝㻝㻞㻟㻠㻡㻢㻜㻚㻝㻢㻢㻜㻚㻟㻠㻥㻜㻚㻜㻠㻠㻙㻜㻚㻟㻠㻣㻜 㻟㻠㻣㻙㻜㻚㻢㻤㻣㻙㻜㻚㻤㻡㻠4523456㻼㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼜㼟㼑㻌㻾㼑㼏㼛㼞㼐㻭㻜㻜㻜㻜㻝㻝㻮㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻯㻜㻜㻜㻜㻝㻝㻰㻜㻜㻜㻜㻝㻜㻱㻜㻜㻜㻜㻜㻝㻲㻝㻜㻝㻞㻝㻝㻳㻝㻝㻝㻞㻝㻝㻴㻜㻜㻜㻜㻝㻝㻏㻌㼛㼒㼜㼡㼞㼏㼔㼍㼟㼑㻞㻝㻞㻠㻢㻢

46

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ

Discussion:SatiationDynamics⿵ൾ౯್ (CompensatingValue䠖 CV)

Figure3PartWorthDynamics (D kht k 1,",12)(b)ID#26

8

2.0(a)ID#99

1.5
1.00.5αht– ≉ᐃ䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜢๐㝖䛧䛯䛸䛝䚸๐㝖௨๓䛾ຠ⏝Ỉ‽䜢ಖ䛴䛯䜑䛻ᚲ≉ᐃ䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜢๐㝖䛧䛯䛸䛝 ๐㝖௨๓䛾ຠ⏝Ỉ‽䜢ಖ䛴䛯䜑䛻ᚲせ䛺ண⟬⿵ሸ (Kimetal.2002)– 㔠㢠䝧䞊䝇䛷䛾ホ౯䛜ྍ⬟– ရᥞ䛘䜔〇ရ䝷䜲䞁䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾⪃ᐹc1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8
c9c10c11c120.02඲䝤䝷䞁䝗Ꮡᅾ᫬䛾ຠ⏝䝤

−4−1.0−2−0.5
50αht

46

c1
c2
c3
c4
c5
c6
c7
c8
c9c10
c11
c12

12

34

5

162

34

56

Occasion

OccasionCV䛾ィ⟬• Dynamicpartworthforeachoftheattribute• (a)ID#99:Attributesc2,5,6,9,10,11(spice,pepper)have
upward trend
upwardtrend䝤䝷䞁䝗 j 䜢๐㝖䛧䛯䛸䛝䛾ຠ⏝=>Spiceattributesincreasesatiationatafasterthanothers• (b)ID#26:Attributesc1,3,7,8,12(cheese,herb)leadtogreater
satiation
i i=>Spiceattributeshavedownwardtrend,notincreasingsatiation

47

48

4䠊ᐇドศᯒ4䠊ᐇドศᯒᅗ5 ⿕㦂⪅䝺䝧䝹䛾CV᫬⣔ิ䝥䝻䝑䝖ᅗ6 䝤䝷䞁䝗䝺䝧䝹䛾CV᫬⣔ิ

2.5
1.5

Average CV

43

CV

10.223456

123

456t0t

0.0

0

1

0.5

10.4
0

2

1.0

2

2.05

A
B
C
DE
F
G
H

1.00.8

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

0.63

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

1.2

CV
4CV

((b)䝤䝷䞁䝗ᖹᆒ)(a) 䝤䝷䞁䝗ู(a)䝤䝷䞁䝗ู(b) ID#26(b)ID#26( j)ht

6(a) ID#99(a)ID#99( j)
ht1

1

2

345

2

3

4

5

66
O
Occasion
iOccasion• ID#99:E䛜኱䛝䛔 э E䜢๐㝖䛩䜛䛸ຠ⏝䛾ῶᑡ኱• ID#26:F䛸G䛜኱䛝䛔䛜䚸䛭䛾௚䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜒ቑຍഴྥ
ID#26 F䛸G䛜኱䛝䛔䛜 䛭䛾௚䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜒ቑຍഴྥ– ᭱⤊᫬Ⅼ䛷䛿䜋䜌඲䛶䛾䝤䝷䞁䝗䜢㔜せど49

50

ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩

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