Northeast Asia Petroleum Forum 2009

Oct. 2009
Korea Petroleum Association
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IEEJ: November 2009IEEJ: November 2009

Contents
I.

Korea’s Green Growth & Greenhouse Gas
reduction trends

II. The setup scenarios on Greenhouse Gas Midterm reduction goal of Korea
III. Positions of each related field & Plans
IV. Position & action plan of Oil Industry

Korea Petroleum
Association

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IEEJ: November 2009

I. Korea’s Green Growth &Greenhouse Gas reduction trends

Korea Petroleum
Association

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Ⅰ. Korea’s Green Growth & Greenhouse Gas reduction
trendsIEEJ: November 2009

○ President Lee. Declared “Will be presented Greenhouse Gas Mid-term
reduction goal within 2009”(July 2008, G8 Summit)○ President Lee. Addressed “National Green Growth Vision”(Aug. 2008)○ Establishing ‘Low Carbon Green Growth Basic Law’

: Now in process of draft-reviewing at National Assembly(will be in effect by the late of this year)<Main contents>- Building & Implementing of National Green Growth strategy- Operating Eco-friendly tax- Setup & Management of Greenhouse Gas/Energy Mid ,Long-term goal
- Introduction of Emission Trading

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IEEJ: November 2009

Ⅰ. Korea’s Green Growth & Greenhouse Gas reduction trends○ Launched ”Green Growth Commission”(Feb. 2009, presidentdirected)- Green Growth · Industry Commission- Climate Change · Energy Commission- Green Growth · Sustaining development Commission○ Addressed ‘Improvement plans on Car Fuel consumption andGreenhouse Gas reduction’ (July. 2009)- Fuel-consumption(distance per fuel): more than 17km/L- Greenhouse Gas standard for Emission allowed: 140g/km(applied from 2015)○ What performed as to Green Growth and Greenhouse Gas reduction- Addressed ‘Total basic plan for Climate Change’ (2008, Prime ministry)- Addressed ‘New Growth motivation vision & development strategy’ (2008,
MKE)- Addressed ‘Encouragement strategy for Green Energy industry’ (2008, MKE)
- Addressed ‘5-Year Plan of Green Growth’ (2009, Green Growth Commission)

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Ⅱ. The setup scenarios on Greenhouse
Gas Mid-term reduction goal of Korea

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IEEJ: November 2009

Ⅱ. The set up scenarios on Greenhouse Gas Mid-term reduction
goal of Korea□ The prospect of Greenhouse Gas Emission○ BAU setup- Reflecting Economic variables such as Economy growth rate, oil price-prospect,energy efficiency-improvement, population-increasing, industrial structure andetc…
- Consideration for energy-saving, Greenhouse Gas reduction policies such as
Energy use rationalization, waste management, forest policy and etc…
- Analysis of additional reduction allowance(reduction potential) through Policy& technical tools○
Methodology for analyzing technical reduction potential: Using MARKAL Model (now applied in 70 countries, especially as a national
application model for analyzing reduction potential)
2008

2010

2020

Oil price($/bbl)

98

84

70

Population(Million)

48.6

48.9

49.3

Economy growth rate(%)

4.2

4.75

3.66

Source: 1. Oil price : EIA(Energy Information Agency)
Source: 2. Population: Statistics Korea,
Source: 3. Economy growth rate: KDI (Korea Development Institute)

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IEEJ: November 2009

Addressed Greenhouse Gas Mid-term reduction goal(Aug.2009)
Scenarios

Reduction goal
BAU

Year of 2005

Selection criteria on
Reduction policy

Main reduction tools (eg)
 Encouraging the supply of Green Home, Green Building

△21%

1

+ 8%
(171M.ton
reduction)

2△27%(223M. ton
reduction)

3△30%(244M. ton
reduction)

Cost-efficienttechnology andpolicy Providing High energy-efficient products such as LED
 Restructuring Low carbon, High energy-efficienttraffic system

 Innovating industrial process for high energy-efficiency
 Encouraging

new renewable energy and nuclear power Partly applying Smart Grid

 Removal Fluorine orgin Gas of High GWP

same

Reduction expenses
In global standard Providing Highbrid car
 Increasing Biofuel mix ratio Introduction of CCS(Carbon Capture and Storage)△ 4%

Level of maximum
requirement of
reduction to thedeveloping countries

 Supplying Green car

such as electronic car, fuel cell car Encouraging topnotch high energy-efficient products Reinforcing introduction of CCS*Exception for the absorption of forest section

Final goal will be set through social consensus on 3 scenarios
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IEEJ: November 2009

3 scenarios in 2020 (unit:Mtco2)
900
900

813

s1

s2

s3

800
800
700
700

642

594

600
600

590

569

500
500
400
400
300
300

298

200
200
100
100
00

1990

2005

2020

GDP decrease & Family budget amount to be endured
Scenario
1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

GDP decrease-0.29%-0.37%-0.49%

Family budget amountto be endured¥ 130,000¥ 166,000¥ 217,000

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Ⅲ. Positions of each related field &Plans

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IEEJ: November 2009

Ⅲ. Positions of each related field & Plans
Results of survey(about Greenhouse Gas Mid-term reduction goal
scenarios)○ People preferred scenario 1 : 44.4% supported(21% reduction from BAU, 8% increases from the year of 2005)○ Experts preferred scenario 2 : 35.5% supported(27% reduction from BAU, same from the year of 2005)○ Sum of scenario 1 and scenario 2 showed over 70% by both
People and Experts

Support
(%)

S
1

44.4

Support(%)

People

S2
S
2

34.1

Experts

S3

18.3

S1

35.5
34.8

S3

27.3
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Korea Petroleum Association

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Ⅲ. Positions of each related field & Plans
Industry
OpinionReduction to the below of Scenario 1(21% reduction from BAU, 8% increases from the year of 2005)○ Unable to utilize CCS(Carbon Capture & Storage)

Reasons○ No room for additional reduction because Energy
intensity
is already high in main industries.
○
Energy high-consumption Industrial structure○
Green technology reached 50~70% to the developed
countries○
1.7% emission of the world, Only 0.7% of the historicalaccumulation.
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Ⅲ. Positions of each related field & Plans
Environmental organizations

Opinion25% reduction from the year of 2005 (harsher than Scenario 3)○ A lack of effort to reduce Greenhouse Gas so far○ Possible level to be reached comparing to the developed
countries○ Need a distinct goal as a new rising industrial country
ranked between the developed and the developing

Reasons○ Consideration for RCI(Responsibility Capacity Indicator)
figuring based on income, emission, population,
capability and etc from Stockholm Environment Institute,2008○
Now ranked 9th of world Greenhouse Gas emission, 22th
13of historical accumulation
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IEEJ: November 2009

Ⅲ. Positions of each related field & Plans
Plans□ 1st step : Opinion collecting of the mass , confirming reduction
goal○ Survey, Public hearing, Reporting to the Assembly and negotiation○ Addressing Greenhouse Gas Mid-term reduction goal(Nov. 2009)□ 2ND step : Establishing and implementing cost-efficient reduction
strategy for the achievement of reduction goal
○ Reduction measures by sections such as building…
○ Tax-reorganization○ Building following measures such as Green Industry promotion plan
□ 3rd step : Building Infra structures for cycle, systematic analysis○ Building Independent research system daily open
○ Detail analysis on Reduction potential by sections,
Building reduction measures and performance management
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Ⅳ. Position & action plan of Oil Industry

IEEJ: November 2009

Position of Oil Industry○ Same with that of ‘Industry’(Set up Low-level Greenhouse Gas reduction goal)○ Worry about Oil demand–decreasing- Greenhouse Gas reduction- Encouraging the supply of new renewable energy such as Bio-fuel○ Encouraging the supply of Clean Diesel for Greenhouse Gas reduction○ Total tax to be neutral according to Eco-friendly tax-reorganization

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Ⅳ. Position & action plan of Oil Industry

Action plan

○ Upgrading Energy-efficiency on refinery utilities○ Utilizing Greenhouse Gas(CO2) for usable resource- Development of New Eco-friendly plastics(44% CO2 of all)○ Encouraging R&D investment(Transportation section)- Encouraging technology-developing investment of new renewable energy
suchas Biobutanol, Hydrogen station, Fuel cell
∙ Developing Biobutanol from non-use for food feed biomass such as seaweed
type, waste lumber and rice straw

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THANK YOU

Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp

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