08
NOTION OF WATER WAR: A LEGEND OR PHENOMENON?
Yunusa Hassan
Department of Geography, Umar Suleiman College of Education Gashua, Nigeria
Department of Geography, NIMS University, India
Email: contactyunusah@gmail.com

Abstract: Water is precious and believed to the king among all
How to cite this paper:
Hassan, Y. (2021). Notion of
Water War: A Legend or
Phenomenon? Journal of
Global Resources, Vol. 07
(02)
DOI:
10.46587/JGR.2021.v07i02.008

Received: 21 March 2021
Reviewed: 10 April 2021
Revised: 26 April 2021
Final Accepted: 25 May 2021

Freely available Online
www.isdesr.org

resources. For this reason, sustainable management of water
during this millennium must take into accounts water demands aswell as the most pressing issues of competing diverse usergroups. This is a review of the popular notion of water war and its
present-day perspective. The study is a critical analysis of diverse
facts, reports, data and assumptions on the leading causes ofwater-allied issues, conflicts and disputes in order to establish
whether the notion is a myth or a phenomenon. Using data mainly
retrieved from secondary sources, this study broadly focuses ondeveloping economies in mostly Africa and Asia, however, a more
specific interest is placed on Nigeria as a case study with the aidof complementary primary data collected during the conduct ofinterview. This study held the view that the axiom is strongly
associated to different issues linked to regional developmental andeconomic status, for instance, regions with developed economies
having lesser likelihoods water war because they are mostly
deemed to be having stronger financial institutions and purchasing
power, higher level of infrastructural development, improved
standard of living, stronger and functional institutional policies.
Therefore, with recent global unending competition in pursuits forvarious developmental upgrades and increasing roles of water
resources in domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors, thisstudy adequately surmises the modern vantage point of waterallied conflicts and disputes.
Keywords: Climate Change, Common Resource Conflict,
Natural Resource Management

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Introduction
Among the most pressing issues of the millennium is the management of the earth finite
resource such as water, fossil fuels and other essential mineral compounds. Earlier crude oil
was regarded as the black gold, but nowadays, water is the blue gold (Wolf, 1997; Abu-Lohomet a., 2018). Throughout the history of mankind, water was regarded as a fundamental
resource that is essential to man’s activities. However, the amount of available freshwater
resources has severely threatened by both natural as well as anthropogenic processes. These
processes include issues such as climatic variations, booming population, cosmopolitan
lifestyle, rapid change in land cover land use, among others. With recent expanding roles ofwater in the 21st century, the importance of water must not be over emphasized.
Many regions around the world are suffering from diverse issues such as drought,
hunger, poverty, and diseases, however, many studies have succinctly linked these issues tobe either directly or indirectly linked to water (Gleick, 1993; Dowdeswell and Hania, 2014;
Varshney and Hassan, 2019; Schillinger et al., 2020).Therefore, this and the likes mandated
the urgent need for efficient management of water resources at all level. As reported in manystudies, whenever a locality runs out of water, the inhabitants of the affected territory have toleave their home and migrate to new lands (Hauge and Tanja, 1998; Kartin, 2001; Gleick,2019). These migrations often cause tension between the newcomers (migrants) and theoriginallocal population (indigenes) that is why these tensions and conflicts generate more andmore refugees and migrants who have to wander further (Gleick, 2019).This is one of thereasons why significant numbers of people leave the African continent every year andmigrates to Europe and other parts of the world seeking for better life (Gray and Bilsborrow,
2013; Gowan, 2017).That is why the European Union is looking for solutions to the migration
problem; however, the outcome of any possible solutions could cause more conflicts in Africa,
which could generate more migrants and asylum seekers.
In view of the above summations, the present review critically examines substantial
number of cases of water-allied conflicts and disputes in various part of the world in order toeither confirm or refute the water war axiom and accordingly establish whether the notion is a‘myth’ or a ‘phenomenon’. Moreover, the study also broadly focuses on developing economies
of Africa as a continent and specifically focuses on Nigeria as a case study at country level.
Theoretical Framework
In milieu of this study, water war is regarded as subject of water-allied crisis, conflicts anddisputes that resulted to fatality of about 25 persons and above within a geographic area
(Turton, 2000; Murray, 2007). Water war in the context of resource scarcity, sustainability anddegradation within the overarching phenomenon of climate change and other related
manmade factors has been addressed by several theoretical formulations (Davis, 1959;
Hardin, 1968; Oberschall, 1978; Smith, 1999; Murray, 2007). Therefore, in line with thesestudies, the present study employed the theory of “tragedy of the commons”. The theory oftragedy of the commons states that when a resource is collectively owned by a group ofpeople, each will exploit the resource, and possibly overused it, yet ignoring the group’s
collective interest, and thus ultimately destroy the resource (Hardin, 1968; Turton, 2000).
The theory of tragedy of commons as postulated by Hardin (1968) further explained thetragedy by using the example of a pasture which is open to all to user-groups. This open
pasture is used by herdsmen to allow their cattle to graze and each herder will continue to add
cattle to the pasture so as to expand the amount of proceeds coming from their respective
herds. However, the commons dilemma stands as a model for a great variety of present
resource problems such as freshwater scarcity, crisis and pollution(Hardin, 1968). So, this
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study in terms of Hardin’s theory is represented in the following context; the earth’s water
resource is the common whereas the tragedy is the conflicts and disputes resulting from waterallied demand, access, management, utilization and scarcity among the diverse user-groups.
As water resource become scarcer, competition for access will often results to disputes andconflicts over them, hence, these may consequently result to loss of lives and properties.
In order to succinctly frame the study’s problem, the present study adopted theapproach of relative deprivation theory that which has been proved to be highly useful in theanalysis of violence, rebellion, and social movement at either individual or group level. This
theory usually provides a theoretical loop where the most vulnerable individual or group ofindividuals express grieved based actions against their respective competing user-groups(Davis, 1959). In this theory, individual or group of individuals usually protest or rebel against
their condition that is mainly associated with environmental stress (Davis, 1959).In
understanding the relative deprivation theory as a framework for water-conflict nexus, thisstudy situates the circumstances of water demands, access, shortages or struggles between
competing user-groups where one group seek to out-gain the other largely due to either
obvious or potent water shortages and scarcity.
Several studies have proven that resource scarcities can consequently results toenvironmental depreciation and contradictory action among the resource diverse user-groups(Percival and Homer-Dixon, 1998; Smith, 1999; Baechler, 1999). In line with the study by
Percival and Homer-Dixon (1998), this study utilizes this theory to frame the following
presumptions about water resources scarcity; supply-induced water scarcity, demand-induced
water scarcity as well as structural induced water scarcity. The supply-induced water scarcity
is the types of water shortages that are associated to climatic variability and the depletion in
the amount of either surface or groundwater resource within an environment, whereas thedemand-induced water scarcity mainly arises due to population pressure (growth) in a given
environment or an increase in per capita consumption of water that can consequentiallytriggered an increase in water demand. Lastly, the structural-induced water scarcity is the typeof scarcities resulting from inequality in social distribution of water resource; for instance, theorganization limit some people access to water to relatively few people or interest group,
consequently, this tends to upshots the water demands to capture diverse ecologicalmarginalization.
Global Freshwater Scarcity
Freshwater scarcity is a puzzling phenomenon when put side by side with the fact that the
total surface of the earth itself is two thirds water; the world is composed of over 70 percent
water but only less than 3 percent to fully believed to be clean and drinkable freshwaterwhereas the greater proportion of that freshwater is locked in glaciers and permanent snow
leaving human activities with only 1.2 percent that readily available in the surface of the earth( groundwater 30 percent, and surface and other sources frozen in ice, lakes, river,atmosphere, swamps and soil moisture) (WHO, 2020). Therefore, this has left only as little asless than one percent for both nature and humans to meet their respective domestic, socioeconomic and ecological needs. However, this less than one percent of the global freshwater
resource is also believed to be stored in underground aquifers have manifested as rainfall;some reside in natural lakes, man-made storage, and rivers (Wolt, 2011; WHO, 2020). It isbelieved that climate change and variabilities are capable disrupting man’s orderliness, andwould continue to disrupt the earth’s hydrological cycle through changing the distribution ofavailable freshwater resource.

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Though there are different types of water scarcity must be acknowledged; the mostcommon is the scarcity that occurs when there is a lack of the minimum supply of freshwater
resource that are capable of supporting human health, sustaining the world food productions
as well as fundamental ecological well-being (Evans, 2010).However, two basic types of water
scarcity are identified; the physical and economic scarcity is central to this study. The physicalwater scarcity occurs when there is a physical lack of water whereas the economic water
scarcity describes a situation in which resources are abundant but where insufficient
infrastructure and financial capacity prevent people from accessing the water they need
(Kartin, 2001; Norland, 2016).
The World Health Organization’s fact file on water scarcity substantiates this by reportingthat there are parts of the world which have adequate amounts of rainfall and general
freshwater and yet scarcity persists (WHO, 2009). Besides economic scarcity, the World
Health Organization further added that geographic or physical water scarcity found in areas
where there is no access to any freshwater sources (either clean or otherwise) affects onefifth of the about 1.2 billion people of the global population (WHO, 2009).Whether natural ormanmade, there are many contemporary conditions that cause freshwater scarcity; therefore,
the following are the most common examples:[i] Growth in world population: The world's population is growing at a very rapid rate and willlead to a growth in the demand for food. This would constitute the single most importantcause of pressure on water resources. Over the last generation, most of the increment infood supply has been obtained by an expansion in irrigated farming. Duda et al., (2012) of
the Global Environment Facility (GEF) have reported that irrigation and food production isreported to have already used almost 80 percent of total freshwater resources.
[ii] Contamination and pollution. Pollution causes scarcity of normal water supplies as it
destroys part of the water resource. This may happen to surface supplies or groundwater,
and the pollution may be from industrial effluent, agro-chemical run-off from fields, thecasual disposal of human waste, or the release of insufficiently treated sewage frommunicipal works (Morrison et al., 2009).
[iii] Climatic change and variability: Climatic change reduces the amount of rain that falls andcreates new deserts (Soto, 2009). This affects both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. Cropdamage and crop disease are all driven by rainfall and associated humidity (Falkenmark
et al., 2007; Ludi, 2009).
Contemporary Water-allied Issues
The most common water-allied issues lately are the fast diminishing of the earth finite
freshwater, freshwater availability, demands, and withdrawals. The freshwater-availability
indicator focuses on the per capita availability of renewable freshwater including water fromrivers in international river basins (Falkenmark,1989).This study adopted the Falkenmark(1989) concept that take all uses of water into account and designates nations with 1700 cubic
meters per person per year of available water as having infrequent water shortages, 1000
cubic meters of water per person per year as being relatively water-stressed nation with about
500 cubic meters or less per person per year or under as indicating a chronic water scarcity.
Even though the relative-water-stress indicator mainly focuses on freshwater withdrawals,
however, farming accounts for about 70 percent of the usage of the world water and relatively
arid agricultural nations may require more water for irrigation than nations with plentiful rainfall
or those importing a large share of their food (UN, 2008). Moreover, it is the ratio of annual
water withdrawals to the annual freshwater availability.

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High water stress is considered to be a ratio of more than 40 percent; medium-highstress, from 30 to 40 percent; and medium stress, from 20 to 30 percent (UN, 2008). However,these limits are arbitrary and accordingly are considered a nation of high water-stress, eventhough its current ratio seems sustainable for the indefinite future. The relative-water-stressmeasure requires a projection of water withdrawals in the future, a calculation that is not easy
to make. For example, such calculation was used to predict the aggregate basis water
withdrawals which were anticipated to increase to about 32 percent between 2000 and 2025
(Raskin, et al., 1997; UN, 2008).

1

2

3
4

5

Table 01: Projected Countries to be Water Stressed in 2025
RegionCountries
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Comoros, Djibouti,
Sub-Saharan Africa
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Somalia, South
Africa, Swaziland, and Sudan
Afghanistan, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
North Africa andKuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar,
Near East
Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, U.A.E., Western Sahara, andYemen
Rest of Asia (except
Maldives, India, Korea (South), Pakistan, and Singapore
former USSR)
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Cyprus, Lithuania, Kazakhstan,
Europe and former
Malta, Moldova, Portugal, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, andUSSR
Uzbekistan
North and SouthAmerica, andBarbados, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Peru
Oceania

Source: Raskin, et al. (1997)

In case of global arable land, between 1975 and 2000 there is marked deceleration of
the increase in arable land use is also apparent, that is why the total arable land in use only
increased by about 6 percent (FAO Stat, 2005). The percentage of global arable land in usethat is irrigated in 1961 is about 11 percent, this only increased to 14 percent in 2000 (FAO
Stat, 2005). Even though, the total global area under irrigation increased to 46 percent
between 1975 and 2000, however, the annual increase was decelerating per capita basis. But
during the late 20th century, the need for increase in food production was about 6 percent,however, it was reported lately that to eliminate malnourishment by 2025 and to meet therising food demand from a greater population and higher incomes, the world food production
between 2000 and 2025 must increase by about 41 percent (FAO Stat, 2005).
Water as a Source of Livelihood and Conflicts in Africa
Throughout the existence of man, water resource remained the most essential resource on
the face of earth (Myers, 2002; Wenzlau, 2010). Therefore, any attempt to seize water
resource or deprived certain part of the population would consequently results to conflict ateither individual or communal level. Africa as the second most arid continent in the world isbelieved to be defragmented by diverse cultural, religious, economical as well as politicaldivisions (Ngigi, 2009; Abdeen, 2010). It was reported that as division within Africa become
more obvious, tensions often rise, especially in terms of water demands and access(Ashton,
2000; Nyong and Fiki, 2005; Abbass, 2012). However, these primary sectors predominantly
demand staggering amount of water to operate effectively; however, various studies reported
decrease in the amount of annual average precipitation in Africa. Consequently, these
decreases in precipitation have resulted to growing migration for greener pasture which inreturn creates fear of marginalization by the receiving communities (Abbass, 2012; UN, 2017).
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In both the recent past and contemporary world, there are reasonable amount of literature thatlinked water shortages and scarcities to diverse conflicts and disputes in some part of African
as a continent which its significant portion is covered with aridity. For example, in the Northeast
African region, several studies reported that the regions around the Nile, Egypt, Sudan,
Rwanda and Ethiopia are believed to be the hotspot of water-allied conflicts (Baechler, 1999;
Abbass, 2011; Besenyő and Miletics, 2014; Schillinger et al., 2020). Another African region
threatened by water-allied conflicts and disputes are the area of Volta River and Senegal
River; between Ghana and Burkina Faso, and between Senegal and Mauritania respectively(Gleick, 1993; Kratli, 2008; Adano et al., 2012).There is also an increasing tension in the Westcentral Africa’s region around the Lake Chad general area between Chad, Nigeria, Niger, andCameroun which was largely associated to the decreasing sources of livelihood of the
population that depends on that water for livelihood (Varshney and Hassan, 2019). In Southern
region of Africa, there are reported patches of disputes and conflicts around the Okavango
River involving countries like Lesotho and South Africa republic as well as Botswana, Namibia,
and Angola respectively (Pallett, 1997; Black et al., 2008; Treszkai, 2016).
Pressing issues in Africa that are associated with water-allied conflicts and disputes
are rapidly increasing throughout the continent as reported by many studies (Kratli, 2008;
Abbass, 2011; Adano et al., 2012; Besenyő and Miletics, 2014; Schillinger et al., 2020).
According to United Nations estimates in 2017, the total population of Africa as a continent isabout 1.2 billion; this means that this continent population alone has constituted about 16
percent of the total world population (UN, 2017).Yet, the continent population is growing at an
alarming rate of about 42 million people annually and was project to be about 4.2 billion by
2050 (UN, 2017). Therefore, as the population grow, the water demand for this population willconsequently skyrocket. Another factor associated with the Africa’s water-allied conflicts anddisputes is the recent climatic changes that are further dissected into many factors such as
water shortage, drying of surface water resources, drought and desertification (Buseth, 2009;
Mearns and Norton, 2010).
Low rainfall and drought are among the most common devastating phenomena in mostof the countries in the horn of Africa; for instance, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Eritrea(Mearns and Norton, 2010; Adano et al., 2012). Many studies affirmed that is why issues suchas famine and drought in countries like Somalia and sub-Saharan countries are reported tobe catalysts to the region ‘increasing instability, conflicts and disputes (Konczacki, 1978;
Shiklomanov and John, 2003; Kis-Álmos et al., 2010). Moreover, another example is theconflict between the pastoral tribes on the border of Kenya and Ethiopia stemming from thestruggle for survival during drought (Kartin, 2001; Renzetti, 2002; Gleick, 2006).It is a fact that
global instabilities, poor governance, poverty, and different transnational organized crimes
executed by various radical and separatist groups are benefitting from the situation (Renzetti,
2002; Gowan, 2017).
Since there is no single indicator that give a complete picture of water stress, therefore,
it is accurate to say that most measures adopted by many studies are countrywide and do notindicate the particular areas of a country are experiencing difficulties in, therefore, Nigeria wasselected as a case study. According to United Nation (2017), there are about 19 million
migrants moving within Africa; with about 9 million of them leaving the continent from countries
such as Nigeria, Sudan (Dafur), South-Sudan, and Somalia at the forefront. Beyond thecontemporary issues of natural resources, there are also other factors that are important suchas agriculture, finance, industry, and infrastructure, that is why the geographical location of
Nigeria as a country is a relevant aspect (Qoubo, 2012; Groninger et al., 2015).
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In Nigeria, especially across the Northern part of the country where greater percentageof the region’ population depend largely on rain-fed agricultural activities (Abbass, 2011).
Northern Nigeria is a vast land that is largely covered by savannah and patches of forested
areas, and also less densely populated relative to the southern part of the country (Varshneyand Hassan, 2019). The northern Nigeria is constituted of 18 states (out of the 36 states of
the Nigerian Federation) with a plurality of cultures. According to Abbas (2011), thisphenomenon creates potential areas of conflicts with every group projecting its interests inresource allocation, access, management, and control in Nigeria (Konczacki, 1978; Koubi etal., 2014).
Agriculture as the powerhouse of the northern Nigeria’s economy was threatened withvariabilities in weather pattern seasonally with annual rainfall duration of about 3-5 months
with a prolonged dry season (WMO, 1997; Gleditsch et al., 2002; Downing and Patwardhan,
2003; Gartzke, 2011).There are evidences that several studies have supported the preposition
that freshwater scarcity breeds conflict (Jacobs, 1980; Obioha, 2005; Oyetade, 2007; Amobi
and Onyisi, 2015). According to Konczacki (1978) and Jacobs (1980) posited that freshwater
scarcity and insufficient rainfall are causes of social and economic ruins, conditions that leave
the pastoralists at the mercy of the sedentary society of predominantly farmers. Studies by
Catterson (1990) and Ide (2015) also reported that the same that resource scarcity makes
rain-fed farmers to expand their farms into cultivable pastoral land, which in turn brings about
displacement of pastoralists, and this consequently push both user-group to resorts tocompetition for access of the limited available land.
Furthermore, studies by Murray (2007) and Oyetade (2007) have reported that an
untold hardship has consistently led to an increasing forced to migrate off land that has
become barren. Moreover, another study by Raleigh and Urdal (2009) reported that thousandsof farmers and their families become migrants and have been opined that freshwater scarcity
appears to exert a somewhat stronger effect, increasing the risk of conflict to six percent forareas with very high levels of scarcity. For instance, in Nigeria, when herders and some few
cases farmers failed to meet their needs in the Northern part of the country, they mostly
migrate southward of the country to a greener pasture where there is more water and pasture(Obioha, 2005). Hence, with this pattern of movement existing or occurring, there will bepressure over scarce resources which if not managed well will increase the risk of conflicts
and disputes between the indigenous and migrants.
Water and Conflict through the Prism of Competing Agricultural User-groups in Nigeria

Nigeria is endowed with diverse soil types and varied agro-ecological regions that offers great
opportunities for the production of crops and rearing of livestock (Stojanov et al., 2014; Ide,
2015). The Nigeria’s regional differentiations comes with a price; for example, more recently,
the country agro-production tradition was expose to certain risks which are largely associatedwith the increasing climatic variability and ecological pressure posed by sharp conflicting
competing users. Nigeria’s agricultural productivities were largely at subsistence scale due tothe actor’s high reliance on traditional tools and methods. Both nomadic pastoralists andarable farmers are believed to be operating under high uncertainties and climatic perturbations
in Nigeria (FAO, 1993; Tir and Diehl, 1998; Onuoha, 2008). That is why the search for water,
forage and land by herders is identified by many studies as one of the fundamental catalysts
of contemporary farmers-herders conflict in Nigeria (Azuwike and Enwerem, 2010; Ide, 2015;
Amobi and Onyisi, 2015).

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Though water is directly linked with food production, however, some studies argued
that most water-allied disputes are economic in nature; therefore, economic approach isanticipated to be more efficient in finding lasting solutions (Homer-Dixon, 1994; FAO, 2003;
Ofuoku and Isife, 2009; Coetzee, 2012). It is estimated that 2020-2025, an estimated 80
percent of the additional food supplies required to feed the world will depend on irrigation(World bank, 2011).According to Shaw and Welburn (2014), there are about 120 million
pastoral herdsmen globally, and more than 50 million were believed to residing in the subSaharan Africa’s countries. Nigeria’s livestock production sub-sector account for about 25
percent of the central and Western Africa entire livestock holding (World Bank, 2011).
With the invariable substantial cross-border movement of herdsmen into Nigeria from
Niger, Mali and Chad, it is estimated that Nigeria alone has accounted for more than 50
percent of the beef consumption in whole of ECOWAS region (WRI, 2000; Ide, 2015).In mostof the issues of water-allied conflicts and disputes, this study believed that the pastoralists are
more disadvantaged because they need to persistently be on the move to find water andpastures for their animals. However, sedentary farmers in their desire to expand their farms togrow more food and increase their income, and have encroached on grazing lands, stockroutes and blocked access to water points that were traditionally for the herders’ livelihoods.
Consequently, these farmers usually emphasize their rights of access to those resources
whereas the pastoralists drive their animals into croplands people’s farms to either consume
or destroy crops.
In the quest to substantiate the axiom of water war, this study randomly interviewed
people to ascertain whether they have witnessed any form of disagreement, conflict anddispute associated with water resources in their respective regions of resident. Below aresome direct random excerpts from the interview:“Yes, I have witnessed a lot” Anonymous pastoralist, 36years.
“Yes, even though I was never involved” Anonymous trader, 32years.
“Yes, but that was then” Anonymous businessman, 51years.
“For access, its yes but beside that, I cannot think of any” Anonymous Civil servant,39years.
“Children do fight while trying to collect water, and sometimes even their parents do
get involve especially the ladies” Anonymous teacher, 54years.
“Mostly no within the major towns and cities, however, it is still common to fight overwater resources in the rural areas” Anonymous traditional ruler, 67years.
The excerpt from the interview confirmed that significant amount of the or majority of
the response acknowledged to have been a living witness of some forms of disagreement,
conflict or dispute associated with water in their respective regions. Moreover, in an effort todetermine the level of severity of the dispute and conflicts associated with water resources.
Therefore, the following are some randomly selected excerpts from the interview conductedin ascertaining whether these conflicts and disputes have resulted to loss of life or property or
both:“Yes, they mostly resulted to loss of lives and properties...” Anonymous pastoralist,
59years.
“There are number of such conflicts that lives were loss and properties were destroyed”
Anonymous trader, 61years.
“Take a look at what is happening lately in the middle belt region (of Nigeria) especiallywith Kaduna and Benue states are great examples” Anonymous businessman,
50years.
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“In most cases, when these conflicts happened, lives are lost and properties worth
millions of naira were lost too” Anonymous Civil servant, 38years.
“Yes, even though most of localized conflicts here are mere exchange of words andverbal confrontations, whereas in cases where a migrant is involved, conflict often
escalates to become full blown war due to fear of marginalization...” Anonymous
lecturer, 62years.
“We only witness a few of them here, but from the experiences we had, we try as soon
as possible to avert any loss of live or destruction of properties in case any conflict nomatter the sources” Anonymous traditional ruler, 53years.
The excerpt from the interview further confirmed that most cases whenever waterallied conflicts and disputes ensue, regrettably, grave loss of lives as well as destruction ofproperties come about.
Progresses so far
Throughout the 20th century, the axiom of water wars has been considered as a mere
preposition rather than fact despite the availability of considerable number of literatures. For
example, the role of water as a cause of conflict and disputes was believed to be highly
controversial by many studies (Kartin, 2001; Gleditsch et al. 2002; Shiklomanov and John,
2003; Yoffeet al., 2004; Gleick, 2006; Kooy et al., 2015; von Lossow, 2016; Diep et al., 2017;
Schillinger et al., 2020). However, these studies mostly acknowledged that water resources
have been playing some bits in these conflicts and disputes, and many acts as a catalyst to
some external factors. Another famous example is the study by Wolf (1997) that investigatedthe key cause of about 412 international crises for the period of 1918 to 1994; this study finds
only seven cases which were directly related to access to freshwater, yet, in all the three
conflicts no single shot were fired. The present study challenged Wolf (2007) conclusion of
considering war as a stated where shot was fired neglecting the loss of lives no matter themagnitudes. Yet, Wolf (2007) affirmed the contemporary believe that access to freshwater has
been an important cause of past wars.
This study like many other studies acknowledged the fact which argue that conflicts
and disputes over water which happens in the past does not necessarily serve to predict the
future, however, the study also believed that these literatures can be used to depict theexisting state of affairs. Moreover, the recent turn of events of the 21st century as depicted inmany studies only focuses on prospective endeavours in terms of possible flashpoints forarmed conflict and disputes in the various international river basins over water resources,
however, these experts mostly overlook localize disputes and that sometimes results to hugeloss of lives in addition to destruction of properties. This study is in sequence with the HomerDixon (1998) which argues on the basis of real-politik that wars over river water between
upstream and downstream neighbours are likely only under a narrow set of circumstances.
Several studies have proved that over the past hundred or more years, armed conflicts
and disputes over water-allied issues that resulted to at least one death are significantly andpositively related to variables such as the weather condition or a regime (unconsolidated or
autocratic), and also negatively related to such variables as years at peace and the level of
economic development involved, as well as in some cases to whether they (at country level)
have an alliance to each other (Toset et al., 2000; Furlong and Gleditsch, 2003; and Gleditsch,
et al., 2004).This confirms the narrations that freshwater scarcity in its various forms has astrong influence on conflicts and disputes between farmers and pastoralists especially indeveloping economies like Nigeria, Somalia, Chad, and India. This finding is substantiated by
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Gardner (2010) and the Stockholm International Water Institute, (SIWI, 2008) who reported
that water scarcity is growing in urgency in many regions as population growth, climatechange, pollution, lack of investment, and management failures restrict the amount of water
available relative to demand.
There are more than 1.4 billion people living around the world where water supply
cannot meet their domestic, agricultural and industrial needs besides been less industrialized
economies (UNEP, 2000; FAO, 2003). For example, about 3,500 square kilometres of
Nigerian land is turning into desert forcing the region inhabitants (both farmers and herdsmen)
to abandon their lands because their source of livelihood is destroyed (FAO, 2003; Campbell
et al., 2007; Ludi, 2009; NASA, 2016). That is why this study affirmed the finding of Raleighand Urdal (2009) that reported freshwater scarcity to be exerting a somewhat stronger
negative effect which increases the risk of conflicts and disputes in areas with very high levelsof scarcity and stress.
This study discovered many studies that supported this assertion with scientifically
proven results; for instance, some studies conducted by Brown (2005) and Montenegro (2012)
reported about of Sudan 18-months program by the United Nations Environment Program(UNEP) which concluded that the conflict in Darfur had its roots in water shortages, as a resultof disappearing pasture and evaporating water holes. Another example is the shrinking of
Lake Chad general area and the population that depends on it for their livelihood have foundthat it is indeed a worrisome trend (Onuoha, 2008; Vashney and Hasssan, 2019).
Many studies acknowledged the increasingly rising incidence of conflict between andamong fishermen, pastoralists, and some instances including state security agents (Yoffe etal., 2004; Ludi, 2009). These conflicts tend to have higher tendencies of causing momentous
conflicts and disputes that often degenerate into large scale intra-ethnic, intra-state, inter-state
as well as ethno-religious conflicts and disputes. These conflicts and disputes mostly worsen
considerably as water scarcities interact with or exacerbate other conflict-related social
variables (Miguel et al., 2004; Ofuoku and Isife, 2009; Coetzee, 2012; Aderinoye-Abdulwahab
and Adefalu, 2012; Amobi and Onyisi, 2015). For example, there are confirmed reports that
serious conflicts and disputes happening around Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have forced
many sedentary groups to relocate due to water scarcity (Ibrahim, 2011; Ofem and Bassey,2014).
Water as a finite resource in the facade of the earth is significantly affected by the
global population boom. In view of the existing mechanisms, it is easy to affirm the preposition
that the available global water is shrinking. In Nigeria for instance, both farmers andpastoralists from the Northern region are finding it more difficult to sustain their vocations,
therefore, resorted to moving to the Southern part of the country as a result (Crossette, 1995;
Azuwike and Enwerem, 2010; ACCES, 2010; Ofem and Bassey, 2014; Gleick, 2019). This
increases mobility by the nomadic herders which in turn pitches them against the sedentary
farmers. The Southern region of Nigeria lately receives huge influx of environmental migrants
not only from the Northern extraction but to as far as Mali, Sudan and Chad (Azuwike andEnwerem, 2010; Ofem and Bassey, 2014). Consequently, this scenario pushes the twocompeting resource user-group (indigenous arable farmers and non-indigenous nomadic
pastoralists) into tenuous system cohabitation in the Southern part of Nigeria.
Moreover, the Southern region of Nigeria is also not totally immune to its own form of
expose to adverse effect of climatic variability, issues of land use land cover changes,
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pollution, soil erosion, etc.(Aderinoye-Abdulwahab and Adefalu, 2012; Ofem and Bassey,
2014; Amobi and Onyisi, 2015). That is why many studies believed that the intensification of
long-range grazing southward by the nomad pastoralists succinctly explains the recurrent
communal friction and conflict with the host communities in the Southern Nigeria (Abdul
Wahab and Adefalu, 2012; Amobi and Onyisi, 2015). Issues such as sources of water,
management of the sources as well as the duration of rainfall were found to be the most potent
predictors of causes of conflict between the farmers and herders (Thomas, 2002; Azuwike andEnwerem, 2010; Ofem and Bassey, 2014).In view of the loads of literatures reviewed, thisstudy established that it is evident that conflict and dispute for whatever reasons would
consequently undermines social order, threatened peace, human security, national stability
and beyond. Therefore, the present study held the view that water-allied issues shared withpersistent conflict and dispute would certainly destabilizes the communities and nation at large
and would consequently impedes food production, and thus threatened food security.
Conclusion
Water is a catalyst for both war and peace. Water-allied issues are believed to the mostpressing concerns of both existing and next millennium. With the conception that water war iseminent in our contemporary societies, the present study critically investigates the notion as
either been a legend or phenomenon? In conclusion, this study assumed from the foregoing
literatures associated to water-allied conflicts and disputes induced by issues are strongly
believed to be interminable. However, the recent global competition in pursuits for various
developmental upgrades have proved that the notion of water war is neither a legend nor
conspiracy but a modern phenomenon that is already happening. This is further supported by
the fact that relationship between water-allied issues and conflict is multifaceted andheterogeneous in nature; because it is associated with many factors such as occupational
characteristics, climate change, migration, ethnic cleavages, religious affiliation, levels of
income as well as level of education.
The present study adopted the theory of the tragedy of the commons and conflict inorder to conceptualize the issue of water war in accordance with theory of relative deprivation
by examining the nexus of water and arable-pastoralist activities in Nigeria. Viewed from therelative deprivation theoretical prism, with focus on developing economies of Africa (explicitly
choosing Nigeria as a case study), and the study have recognized certain indirect factors.
These factors include rapid climatic changes, host communities fear of marginalization,
environmental variability, increasing demand for food production, rapid population increase
and pressure as well as other contingency factors that are believed to be contributing to water
war. Moreover, other extraneous factors such as religious intolerance, perceived ethnic
dominations, ethno-religious phobia, misinformation, and poverty can never be left out too.
This study held the view that occupational politics, demographic explosion as well as
ecological pressure resulting from water-allied concerns usually aggravates the livelihood
constrictions and struggles among individuals and groups, and consequently led to grave lossof lives and destruction of properties. Hence, water war is a complex setting of affairs thathave heterogeneous linkages to diverse assorted physical, economic, social, political issues
as well as developmental initiatives; that is why there are serious potency for disputes orconflicts in areas with water stress and scarcity around the world; for example, sub-SaharanAfrican countries like Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Ethiopia, as well as some Asian
countries such as China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
This study believed that the magnitude of water war phenomenon varies significantly
between the developed and the developing economies as well as the region economic power;
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the economically stable regions having lesser chances of water war whereas the economicallyunstable regions having higher chances of the notion. Therefore, this study made the following
suggestions:[i] There is need for both farmers and nomads ’pastoralists to respect and live each other’s
rights and obligation; such as cultural, ethno-religious as well as economic proceedings intheir interactions. This can be strengthened through adoption of effective land use land
cover in addition to effective land tenure agreements. Moreover, farmers should avoid
encroaching on the stock routes mapped out for the pastoralists, on the other hand the
pastoralists too must also avoid indiscriminate destruction of farmland and crops during
their quest for greener pasture.
[ii] Conflicts between the two parties must be constructively resolved by the governments at
all level to ensure peaceful coexistence and inter dependence.
[iii] States on the fringes of arid and semi-arid region like the Sahara desert should intensify
afforestation programs in order to mitigate the impact of the desert encroachment.
[iv] Since agriculture now accounts for roughly about 70 percent of water withdrawals in theworld, controlling waste in this sector is a useful starting point with currently less than half
the total global water resources are diverted from reservoirs for irrigation to produce foodfor the earth ever growing population.
[v] There is need for devising an effective mediation that can help defuse potential waterallied conflicts and disputes, since the global capacity for such mediation has beenenhanced lately through the adoption of development of new technical and financial
instruments, dispute resolution institutions as well as internationally recognized water
treaties.
[vi] Lastly, there is need for careful sensitization programs especially in anticipated water
threatened regions of the world in order to mitigate and curtail any prospective water-allied
dispute and conflict.
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