Research Trends and Results

Configuration of Draft Scenario for
Systematic Urban Shrinkage of Urban Areasin Depopulating Cities
KIUCHI Nozomu (Dr. Eng.), HeadUrban Disaster Mitigation Division, Urban Planning Department
FUJIOKA Keitaro (Dr. Eng.), HeadUrban Facilities Division, Urban Planning Department
KATSUMATA Wataru (Dr. Eng.), Senior Researcher
Urban Development Division, Urban Planning Department(Key words) Depopulation, Urban Area Restructuring, Systematic Shrinking
1. Introduction
Taking into account the predicted population
decrease in local cities and rigorous fiscal andenvironmental restrictions in the future,
introduction of “systematic shrinkage of urban
areas” seems inevitable in restructuring urban
areas and realizing a “compact city type urbanstructure”. Thus the Urban Planning Department
has been deliberating expected urban feature,
enforcement requirements, effective steps to carryout and so forth, when implementing suchmeasures. Based on deliberations, of last fiscalyear, for examples of relocations of residents, we
examined its implementing scenarios.
2. Implementing Process and Elements of
Systematic Urban Shrinkage of Urban Areas
First of all, by reference to the process ofrelocation of depopulated settlements andimplementation of urban planning projects, we
compiled practical procedures of systematic
shrinkage centering on the relocation of residents
and arranged them in the following four phases(see Figure).
(1) Consensus formation: Discriminate the urban
area into consolidated and shrinking zones inupper level planning process etc. and obtainan agreement in the latter.
(2) Preparation of relocation base: While thepreparation of relocation to accept residents
is carried out in the consolidated zone, newpublic investment is cancelled in shrinking
zones.
(3) Relocation: After the completion of therelocation base, relocation of residents fromthe shrinking zone progresses, and in parallel,
maintenance management of infrastructure in
the degenerating zone is cancelled serially.
(4) Disposition of vacant lots: Along withfinishing relocation from the shrinking zone,initiate improvement as a vacant lot andPhase

Deliberation method/procedure ofurban district degeneracy①Consentformation

a. Deliberation/positioning in basic
concept/comprehensive projects
b. Deliberation/positioning in urban
planning master planc. Preparation/positioning for
random plan in livelihood formation
project②Accepting
destination
improvement

a. Make existent urban district anaccepting destination.
b. Newly improve an accepting
destination by urban district
development project anddevelopment action③Transfer

Calculate compensation
cost/transfer cost according
to the following methodsa. One case examination(method to calculatecompensation amount or
the like individually)b. Maximum limit of aid or
the like are prescribed bylaw
a. Rights of land/building④Vacant lot
disposition

remain owned by the rightholder concerned.
b. Return the land to beinga vacant lot and restrict
land use for housing.
c. New land utilization(farm land, park/green
space, mega-solar, etc.)

Figure: Implementing process for systematic
shrinkage of urban district degeneration

utilization of the site.

Furthermore, on the premise of the above
process, we have arranged composition
elements necessary for the formation of the
scenario’s draft in the following four items.
a) Residents’ relocation method and theirdestinations: The two cases of relocationaccompanied by coercive force and voluntary
relocation incentives by inhabitants andprovision of housing to be an accepting
destination by government and securement ofdestinations by their own exertions areconsidered. It can be presumed that initiallyinducing voluntary relocation, and subsequently,
transfer to a method to be accompanied bycoercive force or the like to a phasedcombination.
b) Program for phased abolition of facilities
and so on: Based on the concept of strategic
infrastructure improvement and management,on the premise of differentiation andconcentration for service levels on a zone–by-zone basis, from the dual viewpoints ofrenewal/reduction andrepletion/maintenance/abolition, consideration
can be carried out on four types:
renewal/repletion, renewal/maintenance,reduction/maintenance and reduction/abolition.
c) Program for phased abolition or the like ofadministrative services: In the process ofdegeneration, it is difficult to abolishadministrative services for elderly people with
low incomes, so a decrease in provision levels
and substitution of services with more
inexpensive costs becomes the premise. In
addition, livelihood assistance services for theelderly in the consolidated zone can bepresumed.
d) Content of improvement for transferredvacant lots: Other than the utilization
morphology of an open space utilization type, acase to make it a green space also is presumed
unless it can be positively utilized.
3. Deliberations based on a scenario draft forsystematic shrinkage
The specification of abovementioned
processes and the composition elements had
been considered in the case study districts andwe have established draft scenarios. In thefuture, based on this draft scenario, the effects
of systematic shrinkage of urban areas arescheduled to be calculated and arranged fromboth aspects of quantitative and qualitative
analyses.
[Reference]
1) NILIM Report 2013 “Research on how thesystematic shrinking of urban areas indepopulating cities should be”
http://www.nilim.go.jp/english/annual/annual20
13/44.pdf