Messages from Departments and Centers of NILIM

With airport infrastructure that supports growth
SUGANUMA Fuminori, Director
Airport Department(Key words) Demand forecast, low cost carrier, maintenance, risk management

1. Aviation and airport policies that lead tonational growth strategies
The genuine implementation of the Open Sky andaviation deregulation policies, which had beenpending Japanese aviation policies for many years, hasbeen made possible by expansion of the airport
capacity of the Tokyo region by the opening of thefourth runway at Haneda Airport in October 2010 andthe start of simultaneous independent departure at
Narita Airport by the end of FY2014. Furthermore,this expansion has been accompanied by the otherpillar of the so-called three-in-one revolution, namely
the creation of an environment to promote the reformof strategic airport management through encouraging
the entry to the market of new airlines including low
cost carriers (below called “LCC”), flexible andexpeditious setting of landing fees, and privatizationof airports.
Eliminating restrictions on routes, number of flights
etc. of scheduled international service encourages thestimulation of airlines and promotes the opening of
new routes, establishing a foothold for theincorporation of booming economic growth in Asiaand elsewhere overseas.
At the same time, in an interim report issued by theCouncil of Transport Policy, Aviation Committee,
Basic Policy Subcommittee in June 2013, priority isplaced on the following four points concerning thefuture roles of aviation in social and economicactivities in Japan.
(1) Appropriately responding to future newimportance of international aviation demand etc.
(2) Ensuring provision of smooth and reliable service
under price competition among airlines(3) Future airport management in response to shift
from establishment to operation(4) Future effective regional air networks
From among concrete challenges from theseperspectives, matters closely linked to present researchchallenges of our research department in particular are
discussed below.
2. Studying the strengthening of functions at Tokyo
region airports
Strengthening the functions of Tokyo region
airports as part of the Japan Revitalization Strategy:

Japan is Back in June 2013 is positioned as a matter
which should be tackled preferentially in National
Strategic Special Zones as a policy to further
strengthen Japan’s competiveness as a business hub.
At the same time, at the end of FY2013, it wasdecided to continue studies to further strengthenfunctions, while steadily introducing 30,000 additional
international slots at Haneda Airport and raising
annual flights at Narita Airport to 300,000 during
FY2014.
Turning to air transport, against a background of theadvance of near eastern airlines and stimulation of
new demand by the entry to the market of LCCs, it ispredicted that throughout the Asia and Pacific region,
average annual growth of 6.6% will make the region
the world’s largest aviation market by 2025.
Aviation handling capacity of the entire Tokyoregion will increase to about 750,000 flights at the endof FY2014, the largest among major airports in thecountries of Asia. But with such demand predicted tocontinue to grow, it is also forecast that growth ofpassenger carrying capacity will strengthen as a resultof construction and expansion of major airports in thecountries of Asia, further intensifying competition
among hub airports in the region. The fact that Narita
Airport was already passed by Incheon Airport in
Korea in terms of both total passengers in 2010 and interms of connecting passengers in 2011 is simply oneexample.
Related to these points, in a document from theBasic Policy Subcommittee announced in September
2013, the following problems concerning predictedaviation demand in the Tokyo region of Japan whichshould be tackled in the future are pointed out below.
(1) Overall aviation demand (total domestic andinternational) in Tokyo region airports will continue toshow a rising trend, and international route demand inparticular is predicted to rise by between about 60%
and 80% during the 10 years beginning in 2012.
(2) Overall aviation demand in Tokyo region airports
in the first half of the 2020s is predicted to reach thelimit of present planned capacity of about 750,000flights.
(3) It is possible that predictions will be surpassed
through the creation of new demand by LCC etc.
(4) Landing and take-off capacity by time period atNarita Airport shows that supply and demand are tightand there are still time periods when it is notnecessarily possible to meet the numbers demanded by
the airlines.
3. Ensuring safety and security of aviation service
users –Airport safety measures
As users of Tokyo region airports continue toincrease in this way and LCC and other new entrants
expand use, it is essential to specifically introduce
measures to improve the reliability of airport
infrastructure and to respond to emergency situations
including large scale disasters such as the massive
Nankai Trough Earthquake, so that airport users canuse airport services without anxiety.
(1) Large-scale earthquake disastercountermeasures
When the Nankai Trough Earthquake has occurred,
18 airports will be temporarily shut down forinspections, and it is predicted that among these,Kochi Airport and Miyazaki Airport will besubmerged by tsunami. It is estimated that at Kochi
Airport, more than half of the airport will besubmerged, to a maximum of 2.5m in front of theterminal building, and that the maximum depth
throughout the airport will be about 5m at its southend. And at Miyazaki Airport, about half the airport
will be submerged and the maximum submersion
depth will reach 5m, which is the same depth as at
Kochi Airport.
When an earthquake occurs, and particular when atsunami is predicted, the first need is to ensure thesafety of airport users and surrounding residents, but
adequate measures including those to rapidly restore
private aviation are demanded so that the ability ofaircraft to move disaster victims out of the disasterarea and to bring in materials and machinery andemergency provisions can be restored as quickly aspossible.
And as a measure to prepare for an earthquake
directlyunderthecapital,liquefaction
countermeasures are being steadily taken under basic
facilities such as runways at Haneda Airport etc., but
preparations for the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake
have just started. Tsunami evacuation plans have beenenacted, but the immediate challenge is to create
scenarios based on the form of airports able tocontribute to the early removal of drifting wreckage orto reconstruction activities.
(2) Airport facility maintenance measures
In light of background events such as the Sasago
Tunnel accident on the Chuo Expressway inDecember 2012, not only runways, taxiways, andbasic facilities directly related to aircraft operation, but
comprehensive inspections of facilities from theperspective of their impacts on human life have beencarried out, and basic policies and long-term renewal

plans to steadily perform preventive type maintenancewill be enacted for each airport.
And at Tokyo region airports, under conditions suchas restricted hours during the night set accompanying
extension of airport operating hours, greater efficiencyof daily inspections, repair works etc. and facility
maintenance of runway tarmac, which are allindispensable to ensure the safe operation of aircraft,
will become increasingly big challenges.
4. Initiatives and prospects by the Airport
Department
The following are the major initiatives now being
taken by the Airport Department, including priority
policy challenges such as those described above.
(1) Further elaboration of aviation demand prediction
methods, such as considering the creation of demandby the entrance of LCC to the market.
(2) Verifying an airport’s roles in and effects on its
surrounding region.
(3) Developing a risk management method for airport
functions which contribute to the enactment of airport
management plans and the enactment of business
continuity plans for use in the event of a large-scaledisaster.
(4) Development of high speed tarmac performance
evaluation technologies for runways etc. to contributeto the maintenance and restoration of airport functions
after a disaster.
(5) Study of methods of advancing and improving
efficiency of inspection and repair technologies undertime restrictions imposed on maintenance work.
Tokyo has been selected as the site of the 2020
Olympics and tourists using the airports to visit Japanand business demand are predicted to increase, so a
reform of airport management through concessions
may open new prospects for the promotion of the useof airports. On the other hand, achieving more
efficient airport facility maintenance, which must bedone by managers of airports operated by local
governments, which face harsh financial conditions,will probably become an important challenge fromperspectives different from those characteristic of
airports in the Tokyo region.
Without losing sight of these various changes, wewish to continue to deepen our research activities
concerning study challenges regarding airports as
public infrastructure while considering the broadinterrelationships linking the people, regions, industry,
culture and so on, while not being held back byconventional itemization and technology developmentframeworks.