A Case of Utilizing Results
Support of Aviation Policy Formulation by the Enhancement ofthe Aviation Demand Forecasting Method
INOUE Gaku, Senior Researcher
ONO Masahiro, Head
Airport Planning Division, Airport Department(Key words)

Aviation Demand Forecasting, Low Cost Carrier(LCC)

1.Introduction
In Order to provide a basis for a technical review
aimed at further enhancement of the capability of airports
in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the Civil Aviation
Bureau announced demand predictions at aTransportation Policy Council meeting on September 26,
2013. The predictive model was developed and improvedby the NILIM Airport Planning Division. In addition, wegave technical advice to the Ministry regarding theapplication of the model.
This paper summarizes the predictions including asummary of the results and future prospects for theresearch design.
2.Summary of the Predictions(1)Summary of the Results
Predictions were made for FY2017, FY2022, FY2026
and FY2032. The predictive model was developed basedon the Four Step Model which is often applied to various
kinds of transportation project planning. Since theprediction results are significantly affected by the GDP,
we made predictions for the following three cases:
Low-growth/Middle-growth/High-growth. The Middle
Growth scenario is based on the Japan Revitalization
Strategy formulated by the Cabinet on June 14th, 2013.
It is predicted that total aviation demand for airports in
the Tokyo metropolitan area will be 110-130 million inpassenger traffic and we will need 690-760 thousand
landing/departure slots in FY 2022(Middle-growth Case).
We also predict that such aviation demand will exceed
capacity of the airports in the same year.

(2)Improvement of the Predictive Model
The impact of low-cost-carrier(LCC) entry into thedomestic/international aviation markets is taken into
consideration by the scenario in which the increase in theshare of LCCs will cause a decrease in flight fares and anincrease in passengers. Furthermore, the effect ofTourism Policy including the visa-waiver-program fortourists and so on is also taken into account.
3.Future Prospects of the Research Design(1)Domestic Aviation Demand Forecasting
Using a stated-choice survey, we are examining airtransport demand changes when low cost carriers(LCCs)
enter domestic aviation services between Tokyo Int'l
Airport and Kansai Int'l Airport and the Linear Chuo
Shinkansen(high-speed railway) begins operation. Inorder to conduct the examination, we are collecting datafrom the stated-choice survey and developing a prototype
for the mode choice model which could treat LCCs as anindependent transport mode.
(2)International Aviation Demand Forecasting
Now we are conducting a detailed analysis of theLCCs entry/withdrawal into/from international flights in
the Asian civil aviation market. Such research findings
will be incorporated into the current international aviation
demand forecasting model.
[Sources]
Transportation Policy Council on September 26, 2013http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001018977.pdf

Figure. Prediction of Aviation Demand in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Predicted Number of Landings/Depatures(Domestic+International)(Thousands/year)(Number of thousand times/year)
941
1,000
762
865
800
729
775
600
691
400
200
0
1990

2000

2010

2020
Year

2030

2040