Canon InstituteChina’s National Security Strategyof Peaceful Coexistence

Liselotte Odgaard
Royal Danish Defence College13 February 2014

1
[AFD og dato]

Outline
1) The basis of China’s influence:Coexistence2) Does coexistence apply in the AsiaPacific? Southeast,Northeast,South and Central Asia
3) Implications for regional and globallevel2

Coexistence
Overlooks three characteristics:
1) China has risen in the group of secondary powers2) Political great power
3) The role of secondary and small powers
 coexistence is a means to preserve national unity as
defined by China
20101. EU
14.627
2. USA
14.256
3. China
5.068
4. Japan
4.909
5. Germany
3.347
GDP at MER (2009 USD bn)
Source: PWC World In 2050 & Goldman
Sachs and the Danish Embassy in Beijing

3Coexistence
The preservation of peace and stability
through common habits and practices
designed to regulate international conduct
A strategy of influence for powers that do
not have the material capabilities to claim
great power status
Limited cooperation to avoid that great
power conflicts jeopardize internationalorder4

Coexistence
Grand strategy
Peaceful Coexistence
Objective: a greaterrole in international
politics without jeopardizing relations with otherstates
Methods: Change the status quo by changing thebalance of power and the interpretation ofinternational law without the use of deadly force

5Coexistence
Strategy: Peaceful coexistence principles:1) Non-interference in the internal affairs ofothers2) Mutual non-aggression3) The legal equality of states and mutual benefit
4) Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial
integrity

6Coexistence
Means:
1) Compromises where use of force between
great powers is possible
2) Peacemaking operations require governmental
consent unless UN system has proved threats
to international peace and security
3) Solidarity with governments andregional/functional organizations
4) Absolute sovereignty maintains fundamental
status in international law
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Coexistence in Southeast Asia
How well does it work?
Pro:
ASEAN-China shelving sovereignty disputes, stability,
peaceful pursuit of nationalinterests, acceeding to TAC(2003)
Contra:• US reassertion of influence disagreements because
Chinese coexistence policies
come up against the US alliance system• Historical legal claim and shifting local balance of power Random use of force at China’s discretion, restoration ofChinese motherland, South China Sea as Chinese lake8

Coexistence in Northeast Asia
How well does it work?
Pro:
Korea: convergence of Seoul’s andBeijing’s aims on Korean
Peninsula, six-party talks,carrot rather than stick
Japan: area of peace, cooperationand friendship (2006), high level ofeconomic and popular interaction, dialogue
Contra:Korea: Seoul depends on US security
guarantees, defusing conflict but not permanent
conflict management mechanisms
Japan: Historical claim to restore Chinese motherland, Japan illegitimate greatpower, 20th century co-prosperity sphere
9Coexistence in South Asia
Pro:
Occasional dialogue on SinoIndian border dispute andcross-border trade, Indian
support for coexistence principles
as a basis of world order

Contra:Indian strategic rapprochementwith the US alliance system due to difficulties with controlling the subcontinent
and with realizing great power ambitions beyond the subcontinent; junior peercompetitor; Chinese longstanding strategic partnership with Pakistan; India’s
hosting of the Dalai Lama
10Coexistence in Central Asia
Pro:Shanghai Cooperation Organization as microcosm, limited
multilateral policy coordination, facilitate bilateral agreement, flexible
platform for policy
coordination between
member states, UN-based,focus on the pursuit ofnational interests
Contra:Presence of US alliance system after 9/11; Russian fears of rising China;
disagreements on issues such as immigration and use of force in regional
spheres of influence11

Implications for regional level
Coexistence as primary theme depends on the regional context
faced by China
Dominant pattern: coexistence is implemented against the backdrop ofthe US alliance system=> China does not have regional spheres of influence where it hashegemonic status12

Implications for global level
Coexistence best strategy to protect China’s principal
objective of national unity=>
coexistence >< integration
International system characterized by: absence of coherent unitary global order ad hoc frameworks of conflict management
 trial-and-error policy coordination
 influential secondary and small powers
 no geographical spheres of influence13