Manual for Space Weather Nowcasting
Version 2006/09/28

Issued bySpace Environment Research Center, Kyushu University

EditorCo-Editor

Aoi Nakamizo
Shuji Abe

Contents
1. Sun2. Interplanetary Space / Solar Wind
3. Magnetosphere
4. Appendix A
5. Appendix B
In this manual…
“≡” means “definition”“→” means “go to next web page”

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1. SUN
Data

Daily Check
Event: Solar Monitor at NASA GSFC’s SDAC
: SOHO Real Time Movies: SEC’s Anonymous FTP Server: Sunspot number, Active region, Coronal hole
: X-ray flare, CME, Filament disappearance, Proton event

Data
Latest Images/Movies of Solar Surface and Solar Corona¾ Solar Monitor
 URL: http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php
 Latest solar images, SOHO(MDI and EIT), GHN, TRACE and GOES SXI, are available fromthis site.
¾ SOHO LASCO/C2,3 EIT Real Time Movies
 URL: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/gif/¾ GOES SXI URL: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/sxi/index.html→Movies http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sximovie
Plots and Text Data
¾ SEC’s Anonymous FTP Server
 URL: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/index.html (hereinafter referred to as “SECFTP”)

Daily Checkz Sunspot Number¾ Refer to “Daily Solar Data” issued by SEC
SECFTP →Latest Solar-Geophysical Data
→ Daily solar Data http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt¾ Points to be checked are as follows.
(Example) 2005.4.24. :Product: Daily Solar Data
DSD.txt:Issued: 0225 UT 24 Apr 2005#
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.
# Please send comments and suggestions to SEC.Webmaster@noaa.gov##
Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data#
Announced with one day
Sunspot
Stanford GOES12
delay. Update last #day’s
#
Radio
SESC
Area
Solar X-Ray ------ Flares -----Nowcasting.
#
Flux Sunspot 10E-6
New
Mean Bkgd
X-Ray
Optical# Date10.7cm Number Hemis. Regions Field FluxC M X S 1 2 3#--------------------------------------------------------------------------2005 03 25
82
65
290
0
-999
A3.7
0 0 0 1 0 0 02005 03 26
78
41
140
0
-999
A3.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0:2005 04 22
77
34
80
0
-999
A2.6
0 0 0 0 0 0 02005 04 23
79
35
80
0
-999
A5.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 01

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z Active Regions (with Sunspots)¾ Refer to “Solar Region Summary” issued by SEC
SECFTP →Alerts, Forecasts, and Summaries→Solar Region Summary http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/SRS.html→MM DD Solar Region Summary ( e.g. Apr 24 Solar Region Summary)¾ Points to be checked are as follows.
(Example) 2005.4.24.
:Product: Solar Region Summary:Issued: 2005 Apr 24 0030 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce,
NOAA, the date of theConfirm# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
data on which the list is#based.
Count the number of Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
regions listed here (3 in SRS Number 114 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Apr 2005
this example)
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z
LL
NN Mag Type0752 N03W85
049 0060 Hsx 02
01 Alpha
0754 S07W71
035 0010 Axx 01
01 Alpha
0755 S12W02
326 0010 Axx 01
03 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Nmbr Lat
Lo
0751 S08
221

z Coronal Hole
¾ Refer to SOHO EIT, GOES SXI, and supplementary see also archives of the preceding cycle.
¾ Check the location.
 e.g. Appearing on the eastern rim, Coming close to the warning area, etc.

Event
¾ X-ray flare, CME and Filament disappearance Refer to “Solar Event Report”
SECFTP →Indices, Events, and Region Data →Solar Event Reports - - last 90 days
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/events.html→YYYYMMDD Edited Events (e.g. 2005 Apr 24 Edited Events)¾ Proton event Refer to “GOES Energetic Proton and Electron Data”
SECFTP →Lists of Solar-Geophysical Data →GOES Energetic Proton and Electron Data
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/particle.html→YYYYMMDD_G11part_5m.txt (e.g. 20050424_G11part_5m.txt)

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z X-ray Flare¾ In Solar Event Report Check the Type “XRA” (X-ray event) with Particulars “C” or greater.
 Time: Refer to ‘Begin’ Location: Refer to ‘Reg#’¾ Check the plot.
SECFTP →Plots of Solar-Geophysical Data →3-Day GOES X-ray Flux Plots
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/xray.html→YYYYMMDD_xray.gif (e.g. 20050424_xray.gif)z CME¾ Check Movies.
SOHO http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ LASCO-C2/C3¾ In Solar Event Report Refer to Type “RSP” (Sweep-frequency radio burst) with Particulars “II” (Slow drift burst)
 Time: Refer to “Begin” (In case of “RSP” is not listed up in the report, determine byrefereeing to LASCO-C2 movie) Direction: 8 (NSEW, NE, SE, SW, NW ) + 1(Halo) In case of possibilities of far-side event, notify by comment (e.g. North(far-side))z Filament Disappearance¾ In Solar Event Report Refer to Type “DSF.” (Filament disappearance)
 Time: Refer to “Begin.” Location: Refer to “Loc/Freq.” (e.g. N13E78)¾ Check Images (Solarmonitor.org—GHN/H-alpha)¾ Check Movies (SOHO EIT)z Proton Event¾ Plots
SECFTP →Plots of Solar-Geophysical Data →3-Day GOES >10, 50, 100 MeV Proton
Flux Plotshttp://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/proton.html→YYMMDD_proton.gif (20050424_proton.gif)
 Check if Proton flux with the energy >10MeV (Red line) exceed the threshold of e+01
(indicated by dashed line)¾ In Text Data
SECFTP →Lists of Solar-Geophysical Data →GOES Energetic Proton and Electron Data
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/particle.html→YYYYMMDD_G11part_5m.txt (e.g. 20050424_G11part_5m.txt)
 Refer to GOES11 / P>10
 Start Time: The time that GOES-P11 exceeds the threshold End Time: The time that GOES-P11 goes below the threshold¾ In case of GOES-P11 remains above the threshold: “in Progress”¾ Points to be checked are as follows

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The time that P>10
exceeds the threshold
1.0e+01
The time that P>10
goes
below
the
threshold 1.0e+01

Ver. 2006/09/28:Data_list: 20050426_G11part_5m.txt:Created: 2005 Apr 26 0558 UTC# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.
# Please send comments and suggestions to SEC.Webmaster@noaa.gov## Label: P > 1 = Particles at >1 Mev# Label: P > 5 = Particles at >5 Mev# Label: P >10 = Particles at >10 Mev:# Label: E>4.0 = Electrons at >4.0 Mev# Units: Particles = Protons/cm2-s-sr# Units: Electrons = Electrons/cm2-s-sr# Source: GOES-11# Location: W113
# Missing data: -1.00e+05##
5-minute GOES-11 Solar Particle and Electron Flux##
Modified Seconds# UTC Date Time
Julian of the# YR MO DA HHMM
Day
Day
P > 1
P > 5
P >10
P >30
P >50 -#-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------2005 04 26 0000
53486
0 5.90e+00 3.60e-01 1.09e-01 7.44e-02 6.68e-02 -2005 04 26 0005
53486
300 5.12e+00 2.21e-01 1.21e+01 7.35e-02 6.58e-02 -2005 04 26 0010
53486
600 3.84e+00 2.10e-01 1.58e+01 1.20e-01 1.12e-01:
2005 04 26 0020
53486
1200 1.02e+01 3.97e-01 1.71e+01 1.36e-01 9.81e-02
2005 04 26 0025
53486
1500 3.25e+00 1.18e-01 9.69e-01 6.42e-02 5.66e-02

Examples of Briefing--Quiet. Coronal hole appears on the East rim--Moderately active. Coronal hole comes close to the warning area.
--Very active. A westward CME associated with filament disappearance.

Other

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2. Interplanetary Space / Solar Wind
Data
Daily Check
Event: ACE Real Time Data
: IMF (Bt and Bz) , Solar Wind Speed, Density, and Temperature: Sector Boundary, CIR, CME (Magnetic Cloud), and Shock /Discontinuity

Data¾ ACE Real Time Solar Wind provided by SEC
SEC http://sec.noaa.gov →Data and Products http://sec.noaa.gov/Data/index.html→ACE RT Solar Wind http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/→Dynamic Plots http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_data.html¾ (When ACE Plasma Data is not available) SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor Data.
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm
 Add a note of the use of the SOHO data.

Daily Checkz Averaged State/ Overall Condition/ General Condition¾ IMF-Bt, N, T, and Vsw: Take Mean Values.
¾ IMF-Bz: Give a detailed description.
 Example statements--Southward 5nT (Northward turning 00:00UT, 00:00UT, and 00:00UT)--Northward Generally 3nT(Max=5nT)--Southward generally -3nT(Min=-5nT)--Oscillating in the range -5nT to 5nT, between -2 and 4nT, around 1nT(Amplitude=3nT),
etc.

Event
z Sector Boundary¾ Information for identification
 Direction of IMF (φ(IMF angle on ecliptic plane) or (Bx, By))
¾ Supporting information
 Sector structure of the last rotationz CIR¾ Diagnostic character low speed Solar Wind →Interaction region (increase of Bt and N, highly fluctuating IMF)
→high speed Solar Wind →(Alfvenic oscillation/ stabilized Bt and N)(See Figure B-1 in Appendix B-1.)¾ Supporting information
 location of coronal holesz CME (Magnetic Cloud)¾ Diagnostic character Shock in front of Magnetic Cloud →Sheath →Main Body of Magnetic Cloud(increase of Bt,
rotation of IMF in tens of hours ~ a few days)(See Figure B-1. in Appendix B-1.)

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 Occurrence of CME during the last few days (the exact arriving time depends on the speedof solar wind)z Other¾ Shocks, Discontinuities and disturbances

Examples of Briefing--Solar wind speed, density, and Magnitude of IMF are on a decreasing trend.
--Solar wind speed continues to decrease. Density and Magnitude of IMF are stable. (in a stabilized
region.)--Solar wind speed decreases to 300s of km. Sector boundary crossing at 20:20UT(Day 27 in Figure.2-1)--Density is very low. / Very low-density solar wind / In the very low density solar wind.
(Day 29 and 30 in Figure 2-1)--Solar wind speed, density, and Magnitude of IMF are on an increasing trend.
--Entering the Corotating interaction region. solar wind speed increases to 600s of km.
(Day 01 in Figure 2-1)--Escaping from Corotating interaction region. In the high-speed solar wind region (from coronal hole)--Continues to be in a stabilized region.

Figure 2-1. An Example of ACE real time 7-day plot

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3. Magnetosphere
Data

Daily Check
Event: Geomagnetic indices: Geomagnetic Raw Data
: GOES satellites Data
: Dst index, Pc index: Geomagnetic Storm, Substorm, Geomagnetic Pulsation, etc.

Data
¾ Dst index, AE index
 WDC http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index.html→Data Service http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/wdc/Sec3.html¾ Pc index and Geomagnetic pulsation
 Kyushu University / SERC
¾ World Wide Magnetometer Chains IMAGE http://www.ava.fmi.fi/image/index.html→Data http://www.ava.fmi.fi/image/data.html →Near-real time data (CANOPUS)
 HAARPhttp://www.haarp.alaska.edu/→Data from the site http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/data.fcgi →Magnetometer Chain¾ Geostationary Orbit Environment
 GOES Magnetometer, Electron flux provided by SEC

Daily Checkz Dst index¾ Refer to Dst index provided by WDC
 WDC /Data Service (sited avobe)→Dst index http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/index.html

z Pc index¾ Refer to Pc 3, 4, and 5 indices derived from the KUJ real time data. #####

Eventz Geomagnetic Storm¾ Refer to Dst index.(cited above)¾ (See Figure B-2 as a reference for the followings.)¾ Item 1. Initial Phase Start time (begging time): rise of Dst (There is no initial phase in SG type storms.)¾ Item 2. Main Phase Start time : start of decrease of Dst
 Magnitude: absolute value of [(Dst minimum) minus (Dst at the beginning of main phase)] Duration: (Start time of Recovery phase) minus (Start time of Main phase)¾ Item 3. Recovery Phase Start time: the time when Dst reached the minimum¾ Examples of the statement
 Gradual Geomagnetic Storm occurred at about **:**UT SC-type Geomagnetic Storm occurred at **:**UT SC-type Geomagnetic Storm started on ** entered the recovery phase.
 Geomagnetic Storm ends.
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Ver. 2006/09/28¾ Examples of statements in the remark column
 Due to the strong Southward IMF-Bz during the CIR
 Due to the arrival of the CME. Amplitudes of the SC are 0nT (Dst) and 0nT (KUJ).

z Substorm¾ Refer to all of the available data (including AE index, Magnetic data of worldwide observatories,
Pi2 pulsation, and magnetic field measurements at geostationary orbit)¾ Item 1. Start time (Onset)
 Determine by refereeing to onset of sudden decrease of AL index and Pi2 pulsation
 Take into account that effects of the local time and another factors.
¾ Item 2. Maximum amplitudes of Pi2 pulsation
 Amplitude, in this case, means the difference between peak and peak.
¾ Item 3. Maximum of AE index¾ Item 4. Remarks
 Dipolarization: can be considered associated event if it occurred within onset -+30min
 Multiple Onset: In this case, take the maximum of AE index and amplitude of Pi2 pulsation
during the period. And write down its time.
¾ Example
Table 3-1.
Time
Pi2
AE
Remark
06:45UT
0.2nT
400nT
Dipolarization
13:15UT
0.5nT
450nT
Dipolarization uncertain
15:10-19:30UT 0.4nT(15:50UT) 600nT(17:30UT) Multiple onsetz Geomagnetic Pulsation¾ Refer to real time magnetometer data provided by MAGDAS. #####¾ Item 1. Mean Amplitude¾ Item 2. Peak Frequency
 Refer to Dynamic Spectrum
 Examples of notation: wideband, 15mHz, 30-35mHz

z Other Events¾ SI, Magnetopause Crossing, etc. (See Table 3-2.)
Table 3-2.
Time
11:40UT SI : Amplitude 20nT(KUJ) 30nT(GOES-12)
18:00UT Mangnetopause Crossing(GOES-12,13)

Examples of Briefing--Very disturbed. Moderate Gradual Geomagnetic Storm occurred.
--Disturbed. Minor to moderate Substorms frequently occurred.
--Quiet. Isolated minor Substorms occurred.

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4. Appendix A.
z Glossary of Abbreviations
Organizations
NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) http://www.nasa.gov/home/index.html>GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center)http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/home/index.html>SDAC (Solar Data Analysis Center) http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/>Solarmonitor.org http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php(U.S. Commerce Department http://www.commerce.gov/)
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) http://www.noaa.gov/>National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov/>National Centers for Environmental Prediction http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/>SEC (Space Environment Center) http://www.sec.noaa.gov/
ISES (International Space Environment Service) http://www.ises-spaceweather.org/
ISES code book http://www.ises-spaceweather.org/codebook/index.html
WDC (World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto) http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/index.html

Project
IMAGE (International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effencts) http://www.ava.fmi.fi/image/index.html
HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program) http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/

Spacecrafts and instruments¾ SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)
LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph)
EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope)
MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager)¾ GHN (Global H-alpha Networks)¾ ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer)¾ GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites)
SXI (GOES Solar X-ray Imager)

Technical Terms¾ CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)¾ CIR (Corotating Interaction Region)¾ LDE (Long Duration Event)¾ Pc (Pulsation Continues), Pi (Pulsation Irregular)¾ SC ( (Storm) Sudden Commencement), SG (Gradual Storm), SI (Sudden Impulse)9Manual for Space Weather Nowcasting

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z Criteria and Definitions(Items in conformity with ISES code book are marked with asterisks.)
Flare¾ *LDE: Decay time of X-ray intensity by half > 3hrs
¾ *Category of X-ray Flare
Table A-1. Category of X-ray Flare
Class
<B
C
M
>X
Activity Level Quiet Moderately Active Active Very Active
 In case of LDE(#), upgrade the activity level by one rank.
 In case of Class-C or grater, if there is 3 or more events with the intensity >5.0, up theactivity level by one-rank. i.e. Event>C5.0 (M5.0) occurred more than 3 times: Moderately
Active (Active)→Active (Very Active)

Coronal Hole
¾ *Warning Area ≡ latitude < 30 and west from longitude 30 west
Figure A-1.
N

E

Halo

W

S

*Proton Event¾ ≡ Proton Flux with the energy>10MeV exceeds the threshold of 10PFU ( PFU=cm-2 sr1 s-1 )Sector Boundary¾ ≡ Switch of IMF direction¾ Basically, IMF is classified into ‘Away’ (away from the sun) or ‘Toward’ (toward the sun).

Figure A-2. Coordinate System of Interplanetary Space©Yuki Obana

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CIR¾ ≡ Interaction region between low-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind (emanating from thecoronal hole)¾ Recurrent.
Geomagnetic Storm

Table A-2. Category of Geomagnetic Storm
Magnitude of Main Phase (nT) < 50
50≤ <150
150≤
Level
Minor Storm Major Storm Severe Storm
Substorm

Table A-3. Category of Substorm
Maximum of AE index (nT) < 500 500≤ <1000
Level
Minor Moderate

1500≤
Major

Overall Condition of Magnetosphere¾ Refer to Estimated Kp http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html
Table A-4. Category of Overall Condition of Magnetosphere
Estimated Kp < 4(Green) 4
>5
Level
Quiet
Slightly Disturbed Disturbed

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5. Appendix B.

Bt (nT)Bx (nT)By (nT)
Highly fluctuating
Magnetic fieldBz (nT)
Shock
Np (/cm3)

Low speed

Vsw (km/s)

CIR

High speed

CME

Tp (K)

Figure B-1. Interplanetary space and solar wind observation made by the ACE satellite during theperiod of 00:00UT on January 21, 2005 – 00:00UT on January 31, 2005. (An Example of CME and
CIR). Shown from top are the magnitude and three components of IMF (in nT), proton number
density (in /cm3), earthward component of solar wind velocity (in km/s), and proton temperature (inKelvin).

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SGVer. 2006/09/28

SC

HOURLY VALUES OF EQUATORIAL DST INDEX (FINAL)

WDC-C2 FOR GEOMAGNETISM, KYOTO UNIVERSITYSEPTEMBER 2000
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Unit=nT, Time=number of the hour in UT day
12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24
DAY
1 -22 -21 -22 -22 -22 -21 -27 -27 -26 -19 -19 -22 -23 -21 -23 -23 -24 -21 -26 -26 -24 -16 -14 -9:
4 -2
6-7 -8 -10 -10 -7 -4 -7 -7 -7 -5 -2
0
1 3 -3 -1
5 39 35 35 17 7
SC
:
:
12
11 8
9
5 -2 -7 -9 -4-2 -6 -21 -34 -42 -37 -48 -56 -61 -65 -72 -73 -65 -53 -51 -44:
Main phase start
Recovery phase start:-1 16 19 28 -4 -61-171-201
17 -52 -34 -47 -60 -44 -36 -35 -43 -45 -40 -35 -32 -29 -30 -28 -19:
Initial phase start
Main phase start::18 -193-182-161-154-144-130-129-114 -108 -94 -90 -80 -83 -87 -78 -68 -86 -76 -83 -84 -74 -69 -62 -60

Recovery phase start

Figure B-2. A Monthly Dst index (An Example of SI, SC and SG) supplemented with text boxes.

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Ver. 2006/09/28(a) Shock(b) Southward IMF (negativeBz) without preceding shock

(c)
Shock
followedbysouthward IMF (negative Bz)

Figure B-3. Interplanetary Observations obtained by ACE. Corresponding to Geomagnetic events
exemplified in Figure B-2, i.e. (a) for SC, (b) for SG, and (c) for SI. Each figure format is the same asthat of Figure B-1.
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