Japan-Asia CCUS Forum 2020
6th October 2020
Online Forum – JCCS and GCCUSIASEAN Could Need CCUS
Shigeru Kimura
Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs

EAS Energy Outlook• EAS stands for East Asia Summit– ASEAN 10 + 8 (Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, New
Zealand, Russia and USA)

• EEC and RE are high priority energy policies in EAS
region– EEC and RE targets by each EAS country• The targets have been assessed periodically using
energy outlook models– Energy saving potential defined as BAU-APS in terms ofTFEC, TPES and CO2 emissions• Focus on ASEAN 10 countries– ASEAN 10 countries are very diverse– Analyze ASEAN Total

2Macro Assumptions for
ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA
Economic Growth
ASEAN:
4.3% from 2017 to 2050
Population Growth
ASEAN:
0.7 % P.A. from 2017 to 2050
636 million persons in 2017
to increase to 809million
in 2050

GDP per capita
ASEAN:
4,880 US$/person (constant2010 price and US$) in2017 increases to 15,100
US$/person in 2050

Crude Oil Price (nominal price)
Increase to about 200
US$/barrel in 2050 due totight balance between oil
demand and supply

Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2019-203ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA• Final Energy Consumption(Mtoe)

Final Energy Consumption of ASEAN by Scenario

1600

-16%

1400
1200

2.8 times

1000
800
600
400

1.8 times

20002000

2017
Coal

Oil

BAU 2050
Gas

Electricity

APS 2050

Others

TFEC of ASEAN total (BAU):
2017: 480 MTOE
2050: 1,138 MTOE
Growth rates (2017-2050):
TFEC: 3.2% PA
Coal: 3.6%
Oil: 3.6%
Gas: 3.8%(industry and transport use)
Electricity: 3.9%
Biomass: 0.1%

BAU: Business As Usual to apply existing EEC and RE policies
APS: Alternative Policy Scenario to apply ambitious EEC and REpolies

Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2018

4

ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA
• Final Energy Consumption (BAU)
Final Energy Consumption of ASEAN (Share by Sector)

Final Energy Consumption of ASEAN (Share by Energy)
100%

100%

90%90%80%80%70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%10%0%0%
2000

2017
Coal

Oil

2030
Gas

Electricity

OthersEnergy share from 2017 to 2050:
Oil: 45% to 51%
Electricity: 16% to 21%
Gas: 10% to 11%
Coal: 7% to 8%
Biomass: 21% to 8%

2050

2000

2017
Industry

Transport2030
Others2050

Non-Energy

Sector from 2017 to 2050:
Industry: 31% to 33%
Transport: 27% to 36%
Others: 29% to 22%
Non-energy: 13% to 9%

Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2019-20

5ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA
• Power Generation (BAU)(GWh)

ASEAN's Power Generation by Scenario

ASEAN Power Generation by Scenario

4000

-16%

3500

3000

3.3 times

2500
2000
1500
1000

2.6 times

500
02000
Coal

2017
OilGasNuclear

BAU 2050
Hydro

Geothermal

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%

APS 2050

2000

OthersCoalPower generation in ASEAN (BAU)
2017: 1,041 TWh
2050: 3,439 TWh
Growth rate by each power source in 2017-2050
Coal: 3.6%
Oil: -2.4%
Gas: 4.1%
Hydro: 2.0%
Geothermal: 3.6%
Others: 8.0%

2017
Oil

Gas

Nuclear

BAU 2050
Hydro

Geothermal

APS 2050
OthersShare by each power source from 2017 to 2050
(BAU)
Coal: 37% -> 36% (27% of APS)
Oil: 3% -> 0%
Gas: 40% -> 46%
Hydro: 18% -> 10%
Geothermal: 2% -> 2%
Others: 1% -> 5% (12% of APS)

Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2019-206ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA
• Primary Energy Supply (BAU)(Mtoe)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
8006004002000

Primary Energy Supply of ASEAN by Scenario

Primary Energy Supply of ASEAN by Scenario
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%20%
10%0%-20%
2.8 times
1.8 times

2000
CoalOilGas

2017
NuclearHydro

BAU 2050
Geothermal

TPES of ASEAN (BAU)
2017: 662 MTOE
2050: 1,822 MTOE
Growth rate in 2017-2050
Total: 3.2%
Coal: 3.2%, Oil: 3.3%, Gas: 3.8%
Hydro: 2.0%, Geothermal: 3.6%
vRE: 6.7%, Biofuels: 4.5%
Biomass: 0.1%

Solar, etc

2000

APS 2050
Biofuels

Biomass

CoalOilGas

2017
NuclearHydro

BAU 2050
Geothermal

Solar, etc

APS 2050
Biofuels

Biomass

Share by energy sources from 2017 to 2050
(BAU)
Coal: 22% -> 22%
Oil: 37% -> 40%
Gas: 20% -> 25% (Fossil fuels in 2050: 87%)
Hydro: 2% -> 2%
Geothermal: 3% -> 4%
vRE: 0.2% -> 0.8%, Biofuel: 1% -> 2%
Biomass: 15% -> 6%
Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2019-207ASEAN Energy Outlook by ERIA• CO2 Emissions
Forecast of CO2 Emissions by Scenario(Mt-C)
1400

1,217-28%

1200
1000
800

3.2 times

EEC &RE

EEC &RE-40%

876

CCUS600377

529

40020002017

Application of CCUS for thermal
power generation plants of APS
in 2050

BAU 2050
Coal

APS 2050
Oil

APS 2050 with CCUS

Gas

Source: ERIA ESP WG Report 2019-208••••••Conclusions
TFEC will increase significantly 2.8 times from 2017 to 2050 in ASEAN region
due to stable economic growth assumption and Oil and Electricity willcontinuously dominant until 2050.
Transport fuels such as gasoline and diesel oil will continuously increase until
2050.
Coal and gas consumption will also largely increase because both power
generations will be major power sources in ASEAN region until 2050. (morethan 80% of BAU in 2050 and 70% of APS).
At TPES level, share of fossil fuels of BAU in 2050 will be less than 90% and it
will go down to 80% in case of APS. ASEAN will continuously depends on fossil
fuels; coal and gas for power generation and oil for road transport.
Consequently CO2 emissions in ASEAN region will surely increase from 377
Mt-C in 2017 to 1,217 in 2050 (3.2 times). If ASEAN countries could achieve
their ambitious EEC and RE targets (APS), CO2 emissions will reduce to 876 MtC (-28%). In addition, ASEAN could apply CCUS technology commercially forlarge scale power generation plants until 2050, CO2 emissions will decrease to529 Mt-C (43% of BAU in 2050).
CCUS will be an option of future energy technologies to accomplish
sustainable energy development in ASEAN and region-wide framework will beneeded to deploy CCUS in ASEAN/EAS such as Asia CCUS Network.

9Thank You for your Attention!!

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