Online ISSN 1347-4456 Print ISSN 1347-4464

ABAS: Annals ofBusiness Administrative
ScienceVol. 2, No. 1, January 2003

KONNO, Yoshinori

1

MIYAZAKI, Masaya

11

Suppliers' Performance and Parts Transactions with Customers

Inferring Competitors' Intention:
Using Content Analysis and Product Concept Trajectory

http://www.gbrc.jp© 2003 Global Business Research CenterAnnals of Business Administrative ScienceVol. 2, No. 1, January 2003

CHIEF EDITOR

Junjiro Shintaku

University of TokyoEDITORIAL BOARD

Makoto Abe
University of Tokyo
Takahiro Fujimoto University of Tokyo
Makoto Kasuya
University of Tokyo
Hotaka Katahira
University of Tokyo
Nobuo Takahashi University of Tokyo
Technical Editor: Maki Nishida, Global Business Research Center

Annals of Business Administrative Science is published quarterly in January, April,
July, and October, by Global Business Research Center, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo,
JAPAN. http://www.gbrc.jp

Annals of Business Administrative Science Vol.2, No.1 (January 2003)

Inferring Competitors’ Intention:
Using Content Analysis and Product Concept Trajectory
Masaya MIYAZAKI
Faculty of Economics, Tokyo Metropolitan University
E-mail: miyazaki@comp.metro-u.ac.jp

Abstract: Content analysis proves to be very useful in inferring the intention among
competing firms. Content analysis is the systematic and replicable examination ofsymbols of communication. Like individuals, firms render messages outside ofthemselves. Their daily activities are, so to speak, communications process.
Therefore researchers are able to apply content analysis to the exploration of firms’
behavior. This paper will take up, as one of these cases, new products news releases
made by inkjet printer makers. Through the analysis, the product concept trajectory isdeveloped. These depicted trajectories show us the intention of competing firms.
Keyword: content analysis, news release, inference of intention

Hamel and Prahalad (1989) asserted thatabout the car’s speed or direction――whether the“strategic intent” was the key to success rather thandriver is out for Sunday drive or warming up for theto seek “strategic fit” in the competitive environment.

Grand Prix (Hamel & Prahalad, 1989, p. 64).” In thisCurrent industry structure that is the objective of

way they point out the limitation of static competitor

strategic fit reflects the strengths of the industry

analysis and advise managers to possess strategic

leader: playing by the leader’s rules is generally

intent for their companies’ future leadership. Viewed

competitive“traditionalin this light, the strategist’s goal is not to find a niche

competitor analysis is like a snapshot of a moving

within the existing industry space but to create newcar. By itself, the photograph yields little information

space that is suited to the company’s unique

suicide.

However,11

Miyazaki
strengths. Thus strategic intent is a guideline tosymbols of communication. The symbols arecompetitive innovation: Anyone who wishes toassigned

analyze competitors’ behavior need to infer theirmeasurement rules, and the analysis of relations

intention. To infer the intentions among competitors,

involving these values using statistical methods

the strategist must establish practical understanding

describe the communication, draw inferences aboutofenvironment.

its meaning, or infer from the communication to its

Encouraged by the discernment of competitors’context, both of production and consumption (Riffe,

intention, the company could find its further

Lacy, & Fico, 1998, p. 20).

thedynamic

competitive

numeric

valuesaccording

to

valid

Content analysis has four main strengths (Riffe,

favorable step.
However, in practice, it is very hard foret al., 1998). First, it is an unobtrusive andstrategists or researchers to infer competitors’

nonreactive measurement technique. The content

intention.

with

This

is

why

strategic

intent-based

messagesisseparate

and

apart

from

competitor analysis has never yet become popular.

communicators and receivers. Researchers can

Nonetheless, once an effective method to infer the

analyze the message without attracting neither

intention has been developed, the analysis should becommunicators’ nor receivers’ attention (Webb,

fully

Campbell, Schwartz, & Sechrest, 2000). Therefore

accepted.

This

paper

will

proposeacompetitors’ intention inferring method, on which

content

analysishasadvantageto

excludecontent analysis has bright prospects.

interviewer effect, which interviewer influences thereaction of interviewee.

1. Advantage of Content Analysis

Second, because content has a life beyond its

Communication process in which people transfer

production and consumption, longitudinal studies areeach other’s message occupies a central position inpossible using archived materials that may outlive

human activities. In practice, messages are delivered

the communicators, audiences, or the events

through a great variety of media (e.g., newspapers,

described in the communication content. Therefore it

magazines

is able to use content analysis as a complement toandTV/radioprograms

asmass

investigate historical records.

communication media; letters, telephones, e-mails
and web pages as personal communication media; orThird, quantification or measurement of content

movies, music, pictures and novels as artistic

permits reduction in numbers for large amounts ofexpression media, and so on). Content analysis

information or data that would be logisticallyfocuses on the content of the media messages.

impossible for close qualitative analysis. Using

Defining this formally, quantitative content analysis

properly operationalized procedure, such a process

is the systematic and replicable examination ofof
12

information

reduction

nonethelessretains

Inferring Competitors’ Intention
meaningful distinction among data. According to

the fundamentals that researchers grasp a fact on thatvalid measurement rules, content analysis data cancase. To understand the case, researchers usually try

be handled to compare objectively with each otherto interview with the parties concerned, tolike analysis of compiling figures from reliable

investigate historical records, or to analyze compiled

sources (e.g., statistical data, financial data).

figures from reliable sources statistically. The

Finally, content analysis has virtually no

advantage of content analysis complements weaklimitation in its applicability to a variety of inquiries

points of such tools (Table 1). Researchers who want

important to many disciplines and fields owing toto know about the case in depth may be able to makethe centrality of communication in human activities.

use of content analysis with other studying method

Obviously, corporate activities are a part of

to improve its accuracy of grasping facts (Gephart,1991) and to infer the intention of actors.

human activities in society. There is no doubt thatfirms are giving off numerous messages in their

Following is an application of content analysis

communication processes. Most messages areto the study of corporate behavior. The systematiccompiling as documents in many firms, which canprocedure in analysis and the direct use of recorded

be suitable for content analysis.

messages, which are major characteristics of content

In short, such advantage of content analysis will

analysis, enable researchers to infer competitors’

contribute to the study of corporate businessintention directly and to compare such intention withbehavior. Especially in case study of business, it iseach other along a measure crucial to the study.

Table 1.
Interview
investigation

Historical records
investigation

Statistical figures
analysisContent analysis

media

human memory

documents, articles

statistical data,
financial datavarious content

understandingon the casestrong dependence
on interviewee

archives speak as
witnesses

data only represent
ostensible results

messages in content
suggest the backgroundobjectivity,
systematizationinterviewer effectand poor memory
unavoidable

subjectively judged
by each researcher

operative figures
express the stateclearlysystematic procedureof analysis ensured,
replicability

inference ofintention

inferring directly

inferring indirectly
through the context

outcome data may
not follow intention

inferring directly,
each data comparable

13

Miyazaki

2. Inferring Competitors’ Intention

contain the makers’ intent. Product concepts sprung

In the late 1990s, there was an oligopolisticfrom their own intention guide product design andcompetition in inkjet printer industry. The big three,product attribute (Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995).

namely, Hewlett-Packard (HP), Canon, and EPSON

Therefore it is useful for researchers who want tosharedknow about the intention among competing firms tothemarketalmostentirely.

In

such

analyze their product concepts.

competitive situation, who are the rivals consideredis obvious, and each firm is forced to comprehend

In this paper, we will read the messages fromtheir own competitive position in the market. To takenews releases of new products by inkjet printeradvantage to rivals, a firm must develop moremakers to understand product concepts. A news

attractive proposal for customers than rivals.

release is a media delivering information about the

However, “attractiveness” is erratic. Even in a

firm or the incident to the press. News releases aremarket segment, there is no one right answer for

usually printed documents of few pages, but they are

creating attractiveness. Every firm can feature its

also opened to the public as on web pages these days.

products

unique

The ultimate purpose of news releases on new

interpretation of product concept. In fact, the big

product introduction is to convey advantages andthree inkjet printer makers have been adopting

attractiveness of the product precisely to reporters.

substantial different product concepts respectively.

News release writers evade using hyper exaggerated

Such difference among product concepts partly

expression in the text. Hence, messages appeared incomes from the difference of strategic intent held bynews releases stand for straightforward “self image”

competing firms.

of the product concept that the firm concerned holds.

attractively

based

on

the

Such content analysis of news releases would give

The purpose of this paper is to present a way
which researchers infer competitors’ intention with

fundamental

the assistance of content analysis. To be concrete,researchers.

data

for

inferringintentiontoinferring what the big three inkjet printer makers

The inkjet printer as PC peripheral has been

have intended in oligopolistic market respectively ischanging amorphously the product concept since its

our aim. The analytical focus is not on theinvention in the late 1980’s. The initial productconsequence of business activities but on thedeveloped was used as monochrome document

intention of actors. Content analysis is implemented

printer. While the PC performance enhanced, users

to unfold to what each subject has been paying

came to handle more and more color graphics andattention overtime as a preparation for inference ofcolor images on PCs. To catch such trend, inkjet

intention.

printer also shifted its product concept to color
printer. In the late 1990’s, inkjet printer technology

Products, that is, inkjet printers themselves,
14

Inferring Competitors’ Intention
was developed further, which changed the producteach maker intended in its product development

concept to photo-image printer. This was a result ofprocess. Therefore it becomes the first step toeach maker’s product strategy that such fluid

analyze the messages relative to those fourcharacteristics of the product concept were observed

attributions in news releases to see where emphasisin the inkjet printer industry. In the changing process

are laid on by makers respectively.

of product concept, each maker seeks competitive

To implement content analysis of news releases,

advantages over rivals. It is the unique intention of

we treat annually integrated news release document

each maker that varies the product concept.

by each maker as a unit of analysis. The unit

In next section, we examine how different theincludes all news releases of new products on the

product concepts of the big three inkjet printermarket by each maker in a year (January-December).

makers are, and infer what intention they have, based

Then, we count the frequency of appearances of theon data collected through content analysis.

words relative to four critical attributions withineach unit. We assume when the words concerned

3. Utilization of Content Analysis

have higher frequency of appearances, the more the

The data we use in the following analysis is acquired

concerning maker is laying emphasis on thefrom news releases of new products for Japanese

attribution associated with the words. Comparing

market issued by the big three inkjet printer makers

such words frequencies among makers, differences

during 1995-1999. In this term, the inkjet printerin the product concept become visible.

enhanced performances in various aspects. The print

However, the number of products released byquality improved with the minute resolution

each maker per a year is not equal. It is so naïve totechnologies (e.g., micro droplet, fine ink, color

count the frequency of the relative words without

management software), and achieved accelerated

adjusting the difference in length of the analyticalprint speed with the high throughput technologies

unit that the numbers of products affect. Every(e.g., multi nozzle, high frequency spouting,product accompanies a news release. As a result, aadvanced data processing). Also there was a trend

larger number of products makes a longer document,that transformed inkjet printer as a document printerthat is, a larger unit of analysis. Naturally, the larger

into inkjet printer as a color photo-image printer inunit of analysis contains more frequent reference

usages of customers. Such context shows us what

about the words concerned. Analysts who compare

attributions of the product concept are worthy ofdata have to adjust the difference in length of thenote in our analysis, namely; print quality, print

unit to avoid this problem. Therefore we use thespeed, document print, and photo print, which areadjusted unit of analysis equalized by the document

critical to understand the product concept which

length. Then, we count the frequency of appearances
15Miyazakiof the words relative to four attributions (print

denote the frequency both of words relative toquality, print speed, document print, and photo print)

document print and words relative to photo print.

utilizing PC software named Content Analyzer

Area left to zero of the graph signify the morever. 2.02. This software can process text files written

document print-intended attribution while area rightin Japanese and output adjusted frequency data

to zero signify the more photo print-intended

automatically.

attribution.

The results show us a unique difference

It must be noted that these numerical values

between makers in frequency. Figure 1 illustrates theshowed as dots are not absolute values; they only

product attribution each maker had intended throughpresent the relative stress level on four conception

the period of time. Vertical axis is composed of thequadrants (i.e., fast document printing, high quality

difference of two values which denote the frequency

document printing, high quality photo printing, andboth of words relative to print speed and words

fast photo printing). The trajectories traced for eachrelative to print quality. Dots in graph area above

maker in Figure 1 express the transition of intended

zero signify the more speed-intended attribution

product attributions themselves because those data

while dots in graph area below zero signify the moreare linguistic data from content analysis of news

quality-intended attribution. The horizontal axis isreleases. This implies that the data of trajectories cancomposed of the difference of two values which

represent a bundle of some product attributes which

Figure 1.
15←Quality intended ／ Speed intended→

Fast Document Printing

Fast Photo Printing

HP
10

99

5

96

0
‑40

‑30

‑20

‑10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

98
‑5

‑10

95

95

Early color printers

95

‑15

‑20

Canon
EPSON
HP

97
96

96

EPSON
99

98

99
Canon

98

Establishment ofphoto‑image printer97‑25
High Quality Document Printing

97‑30←Document print intended ／ Photo print intended→

16

High Quality Photo Printing

Inferring Competitors’ Intention
makers propose to consumers at the time of release

regards print speed as the important attribute in

to feature their own subjective product concept.

product development. Specifically, HP has insisted

Hence, we name the trajectory as product conceptalso on document printing since 1998. This can be

trajectory (PCT).

interpreted

as

a

way

HP

seeks

to

make

Figure 1 shows the main product attribution of“balanced-purpose printers” aiming to differentiate

inkjet printers shifting from document printing tofrom EPSON printers specializing in photo-image

photo printing as a whole in this period. We canprinting. While these two makers have taken theirderive the inference that all makers have attachedpole positions, Canon has not emitted readable color

importance to photo printing than to documentof identity yet. Canon excels two other makers by

printing since 1995. However, the PCTs depicted doemphasizing print quality in 1997/99 indeed,

not trace the same course: those differ among makers.

nevertheless, it is so noncommittal with what can be

EPSON excels two other makers by emphasizing

printed with high quality. This can derive thephoto printing in 1995/97/98/99. This can derive theinference that Canon’s main product concepts areinferenceplaced elsewhere.

that

EPSON

continuously

seeksdevelopment in “photo printers.” HP excels two

Figure 2 shows where Canon’s product concept

other makers by emphasizing print speed inpositions are better. The vertical axis is composed of

1996/97/98/99. This can derive the inference that HP

the difference of two values which denote the

Figure 2.

←Small size intended ／ Full‑specification intended→

8

95

6

95

4

97
99
97

2

EPSON

95

0
0

5

‑2

97

10

99
HP

15

20

‑4

‑6

Canon

99

‑8

Low price intended→

17

25

30

35

Canon
EPSON
HP

Miyazaki
frequency both of words relative to full-specification

characteristics of content analysis data make possible

and words relative to small product size. Dots in thecomparative analysis.
Last,upper half of the graph signify the more full

PCT

makes

visibletherivalry

scale-intended attribution for professional use while

consciousness among firms. EPSON and HP indots in the lower half signify the more small

Figure 1 and 2, for example, trace similar form ofsize-intended attribution. The horizontal axis denotes

PCT although relative positioning in each productthe frequency of words relative to lower productattribution is radically different. Both have been

price setting. Needless to say, the data used in thiskeeping the position at arm’s length taking thegraph are gathered through content analysis of news

isomorphic trajectory pattern. In this case, we canreleases in the same method as in Figure 1.

interpret that they are conscious of mutual

In Figure 2, Canon’s shift to “small size” atcompetitive reference points (Amikura & Shintaku,

1999 is remarkable. This can derive the inference1997): They are rivals on product strategy. On thethat Canon intends to differentiate product concept

other hand, Canon traces PCT, which is alike none.

tosmall size. In contrast to Canon, EPSONThis can be interpreted that Canon does not follow

remains in upper side of the graph: It derives thethe main trend of the industry and seeks niche

inference that EPSON is not interested in small size

strategy.

product needs. And it seems HP intends to balance

In this way, researchers can infer the intention

full-specification with small size, because itsof firms. They will get the car’s speed and direction.

trajectory remains close to the horizontal axis.

References
4. Implications

Amikura, H., & Shintaku, J. (1997). Process of

PCT as an application of content analysis methodorganizational capabilities development: Strategicpresents us mainly three implications. First, PCT canschema and competitive advantages in thedescribe the intended product concept of the time ofelectronic calculator industry. Sophia Economic

release. This is because PCT is composed of content

Review, 43(1), 1-39.

analysis data drawn from news release messages

Gephart, R. P., Jr. (1991). Multiple methods foranalysis. In other words, the maker’s confession on

tracking corporate social performance: Insights

their product concept is the data for PCT.

from a study of major industrial accidents.
Research in Corporate Social Performance andSecond, the attention of makers is discernible
respectively bydepictingresearchers

compare

PCT.

It

can

Policy, 12, 359-383.

easeproduct

Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C. K. (1989). Strategic intent.

attribution intended with each other. Quantitative

Harvard Business Review, (1989, May-June),

to

the

maker’s

18

Inferring Competitors’ Intention
63-76.
Nonaka,analysis in research. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence
I.,&

Takeuchi,H.

(1995).

The

Erlbaum Associates.

knowledge-creating company: How JapaneseWebb, E., Campbell, D. T., Schwartz, R. D., &companies create the dynamics of innovation.

Sechrest, L. (2000). Unobtrusive measures (Rev.

New York: Oxford University Press.

ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Riffe, D., Lacy, S., & Fico, F. G. (1998). Analyzing
media messages: Using quantitative content〔Received December 19, 2002; accepted January 16, 2003〕

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Miyazaki

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