Pakistani nuclear weapons capability【Overview】
Pakistan a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that maintains a nuclear arsenal. Under theleadership of the so-called “father of Pakistan's atomic bomb” Abdul Qadeer Khan the nation began thedevelopment of nuclear weapons through uranium enrichment in the 1970s. Conflict with neighboring India overthe sovereignty of Kashmir continues, and the possession of nuclear weapons by Pakistan is significant as acountermeasure against India, which has superior conventional forces.
Although there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding parts of Pakistan’s nuclear capability, it appears certainfrom satellite photographs and so on that expansion is underway. With regard to the number of nuclear warheads,
based on the February 2023 estimates of Kristensen, Korda, Johns& Kohn the figure has been put at 170, a
gradual increase from last year (Kristensen, Hans M., Korda, Matt, Johns, Elina & Kohn, Kate 2023). There arevarious views regarding the pace at which expansion is underway, but Kristensen & Korda estimate that the
number of Pakistan’s nuclear warheads will reach 200 by the year 2025 (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt
2021).
Pakistan is also enhancing capability to produce fissile material that is required, in turn, to manufacture nuclear
weapons. According to the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), as ofthe end of 2021, they had approximately 500 kg of weapons-grade plutonium and 4,900 kg of high enricheduranium (HEU) (Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA) 2023). Since ittakes 25 kg of HEU or 4 kg to 6 kg of plutonium to manufacture a nuclear warhead (though these amounts may
differ according to the level of their technology), Pakistan has enough fissile material to make 279 to 321 nuclear
warheads. With higher levels of technical sophistication, however, it is possible to obtain a bomb from 2-4kg
plutonium (Union of Concerned Scientists 2009), in which case the same Israeli stockpile would suggest an
arsenal of maximum 446 warheads. Kristensen and Norris suggest that Pakistan has not converted all its fissile
material into nuclear warheads, and estimate the number of warheads in conjunction with the intelligence on their
nuclear weapons delivery capabilities. It is thought that the warheads are unloaded and in storage at a central
storage facility (Kristensen, Hans M., Korda, Matt, Johns, Elina & Kohn, Kate 2023). It should be noted that
Pakistan is a country that strongly opposes the initiation of negotiations at the Geneva Conference on
Disarmament (CD) for an international treaty banning the production of fissile material for weapons use.
Pakistan is also developing and deploying nuclear-capable means of delivery. It has become apparent that in thecourse of its development Pakistan has received technical assistance from China and cooperated with Iran andNorth Korea (Missile Defense Project 2021). Currently, Pakistan deploys eight ground-launched ballistic missiles(five short-range, three intermediate range) capable of carrying nuclear warheads and is thought to be developing
one more intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan is also actively developing cruise missiles with
nuclear/conventional capability. The ground-launched Babur I is already in deployment and tests are repeatedly
under way for anti-ground and anti-ship variants. In addition, Pakistan has obtained the nuclear triad through thedevelopment of submarine-launched cruise missiles, and is steadily securing second strike (retaliatory) capability.
Among the non-signatories of the NPT, Pakistan is characteristically focused on development of non-strategic(tactical) nuclear weapons. The key motivation for this is Pakistan's desire to counter the Cold Start Doctrine of its
neighbor India, a neighbor that maintains an overwhelming superiority in conventional weapons. The CSD fields
tank brigades along the Pakistani border for swift counterattack in the event of any Pakistani aggression(Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2019). Pakistan's answer is a “full-spectrum deterrence posture” entailing
credible “capability to deter all forms of aggressions.” One of Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons, the Nasr, atactical ballistic missile, is unique for its very limited 60-70km range. It is considered a tactical asset for use in a
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battlefield, to deter Indian tanks from invading the country (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2019).
It is thus that there are concerns the nuclear postures of India and Pakistan is lowering the threshold for the useof nuclear weapons. It cannot be denied that accidents, misunderstandings and errors could lead to the use of
these nuclear weapons. An accident occurred during the course of the compilation of this data. On March 11,2022 the Indian Ministry of Defence announced that a missile had been accidently launched on the previous day
due to “a technical malfunction,” and that the missile had landed on Pakistani territory. Pakistan’s Ministry ofForeign Affairs summoned the Indian charge d’affaires and protested about the accident prior to theannouncement (Reuters 2022).
In October 2022, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry summoned the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan for an explanation
after U.S. President Biden questioned the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and described the nation as "oneof the most dangerous nations in the world" (Hallam, Jonny, Atwood, Kyll, & Khalidi, Kassim 2022). Foreign
Minister Bhutto said, "If there is any doubt about the safety of nuclear weapons, it should be directed at India,
which recently accidentally fired a missile into Pakistani territory" (Asahi Shimbun 2022).

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The red numbers represent an increase in the number of warheads since last year,
while the blue numbers represent a decrease.
Updated: June 1, 2023●

Nuclear warheads●

Nuclear weapons delivery vehicles 1)
Type / designation

170

Missile/bomb

No. ofwarheads per
weaponGround-launched ballistic missile

No. ofwarhea
ds

Yield
(kt)

Range
(km)

Payloads (kg)Year first
deployed

Remarks

117

Abdali (Alias : Hatf 2)

10

1

10

5－12

200

200 - 400

2015

2)

Ghaznavi (Alias : Hatf 3)

16?

1

16?

5－12

300

500

2004

3)

Shaheen-1 (Alias : Hatf 4)

16?

1

16?

5－12

750

750 - 900

2003

4)

Shaheen-1A (Alias : Hatf 4)

?

1

?

5－12

900

1,000

?

5)

Ghauri (Alias : Hatf 5)

24?

1

24?

10－40

1,250

700 - 1,000

2003

6)

Shaheen-2 (Alias : Hatf 6)

18?

1

18?

10－40

2,000

~1,0002014

7)

Shaheen-3

?

1

9?

10－40

2,750

~700 - 1,000

2023?

8)

Nasr (Alias : Hatf 9)

24?

1

24?

5－12

400

2013

9)

Aababeel?

multiplenumbers

?

2,200

?

In development

10)

2014

11)

In development

12)

Ground-launched cruise missile

60 70

12

Babur-1/1A (Alias : Hatf 7)

12

1

12

5－12

350

400 - 500

Babur-2/1B

?

1

?

5－12

700

?

1

?

5－12

450

?

5－12

2,100

4,000

1998

14)

Submarine-launched cruise missile
Babur-3?

Airborne bomb
Loading machine : Mirage
III/V

In development

13)

2025？

36
36

1

Air-launched cruise missile

36

5

Ra’ad (Alias : Hatf 8)

5?

1

5?

350

~400

2019?

15)

Ra’ad-2

?

1

?

> 350

~400

2022?

16)

©RECNA Nuclear Warhead Data Monitoring Team
【Notes】
1)

The source for information on missile / bomb, number of warheads, warheads’ yield, range and year of deployment is Kristensen,
Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021; payloads is Schell, Phillip Patton, Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2015.

2)

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Road-mobile. Single-stage. Solid-propellant. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 5-12 kilotons.
The latest test launch was conducted on February 15, 2013 (The Nation 2013).

3)

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Road-mobile. Single-stage. Solid-propellant. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 5-12 kilotons.
The latest test launch was conducted on February 3, 2021(ISPR 2021-2).

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4)

Short-range ballistic missile (SPRM). Road-mobile. Solid-propellant. Single-stage. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 5-12 kilotons.
Pakistan bases its missiles on the M-II missiles that they imported from China in the early 1990s. The latest test launch was
conducted on November 18, 2019(The Economic Times 2019).

5)

The Shaheen IA extended the range of a Shaheen. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 5-12 kilotons. The latest test launch was
conducted on November 18, 2021 (ISPR 2021-3).

6)

Pakistan’s earliest medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Road-mobile. Single-stage. Liquidpropellant. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 10-40kilotons. Believed to be a variant of the North Korean Rodong (Nodong). It will
likely be replaced by Sheheen upgrades in the future (Kristensen, Hans M., Norris, Robert S. & Diamond, Julia 2018). The latest
test launch was conducted on October 8, 2018 (ISPR 2018-2). An analysis suggests that Ghuari 2 (Hatf 5A) missiles with a rangethat will be extended the range of the Ghuari to at least 1,800km are under development (Missile Defense Project 2018-1).

7)Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Two-stage, solid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 10-40 kiloton. Thought tobecome the replacement for Ghauri. The latest test launch was conducted on May 23, 2019 (ISPR 2019-3).

8)Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Two-stage. Solid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 10-40 kiloton. Some reports
allege Pakistan MIRVing the Shaheen-III, in response to improvements in India's missile defense capability (Missile Defense Project2019). The latest test launch was conducted on April 9, 2022 (ISPR 2022-1). Missiles have not been operationally deployed, but
it is believed that warheads are still being manufactured

9)(Kristensen, Hans H. & Korda, Matt 2022).

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Single-stage. Road-mobile. Solid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 5-12 kiloton
Limited in yield, but highly accurate in targeting. Fired from a multi-tube box launcher (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S.
2016). The range was extended to 70km from 60km in 2017, but, at such a limited range, it is incapable of striking any strategic
targets within India. The Nasr, therefore, is believed to be a battlefield weapon, used to prevent border incursions by Indian tankbrigades (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2019). To date there have been 15 test launches. the latest being January 24 (ISPR
2019-1) and 31 (ISPR 2019-2) 2019.

10) Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Three-stage. Road-mobile. Solid-propellant. The first test launch was conducted on January
24, 2017. According to the Pakistani Armed Forces’ joint public relations department, it is capable of carrying multiple warheads(ISPR 2017-1). Some believe this to be a Shaheen III redesign/upgrade (Gady, Franz-Stefan 2017). Pakistan’s decision to multiply
warheads is understood to be a reaction to India’s Ballistic Missile Defence Program (Kristensen, Hans M., Norris, Robert S. &Diamond, Julia 2018). On March 6, 2018, US DIA Director Lt Gen Robert Ashlet testified before the Senate Armed Services
Committee about "South Asia's first MIRV payload" test by Pakistan in January 2017 (Defense Intelligence Agency 2018).
11) Cruise missile. The yield of warhead is 5-12 kiloton. Its development dates back to the 1990s, in reaction to India's cruise missile
development plan (Missile Defense Project 2018-2). The first test launch was conducted on August 2005. The latest test launch
was conducted on February 11, 2021 (ISPR 2021-3).
12) A Babur 1 variant with greater precision—owing to highly advanced aerodynamics and electronics—and an extended range of
700km, to be used for both ground and naval targets. The yield of nuclear warhead is 5-12 kiloton. The first test launch was
conducted on December 14, 2016 (ISPR 2016). The latest test, on March 19, 2020, failed, with the delivery platform crashingminutes after launch (WION 2020). On April 14, 2018, the Babur 1B, another variant of equivalent performance, was test-fired(ISPR 2018-2). The latest test launch was conducted on December 21, 2021 (ISPR 2021-4).
13) The range of the submarine-launched Babur 2 is 450 km. The yield of nuclear warhead is 5-12 kiloton. So far, two tests have been
conducted, and the latest was on March 29, 2018(ISPR 2018-1). If Babur 3 is operationalized, Pakistan will acquire a full triad ofland-, air- and sea-based nuclear delivery system.
14) Also used in test launches of the Ra’ad and Ra’ad2 ALCM (Kristensen, Hans M & Korda, Matt 2021). There is one school of thought
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that the Mirage V have been allotted for bombing missions using free-fall bombs (Kristensen, Hans M & Korda, Matt 2021). The
Pakistan Air Force currently owns 160 Mirage fighter jets (of which 120 are fighter bombers), and plans to purchase a further 36
from Egypt (Kristensen, Hans M & Kile, Shannon N. 2020). The Pakistan Air Force, on the other hand, owns more than 100 JF-17s
as of the end of 2021, and intends to acquire another 188 to replace its aging Mirages. The Ra’ad ALCM is expected to be deliveredby the JF-17 (Kristensen, Hans M & Korda, Matt 2022).
15) Air-launched cruise missile. 7 tests have been conducted, and the latest test launch was in 2016 (Kristensen, Hans M & Korda,
Matt 2021). It is capable of stealth mode and precision guidance, according to Pakistani government sources (Kristensen, Hans
M. & Norris, Robert S. 2016). The source of information on payload is IHS Jane’s 2015.
16) Air launched cruise missile. This is an improved version of the Ra’ad with an increased range. The Ra’ad II made its first appearance
in a military parade on March 23, 2017. The latest test launch was conducted on February 18, 2020 (ISPR 2020). According to the
Pakistani government, its range is 600km and it is precision-guided (ISPR 2020).

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