第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開➨ 2 ❶ 㔠ṇᜠᨻᶒ࡜㌷஦೵ᡓయไ̿̿ࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡜ᑐ༡㛵ಀࡢᒎ㛤 ಴⏣ ⚽ஓ㸯. ࡣࡌࡵ࡟̿̿㉳Ⅼ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖ㏆ᖺࡢ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣᖹ࿴ᨷໃ࡜㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ஺஫࡟ᒎ㛤ࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢ㉳Ⅼࡣ 2010 ᖺ 1 ᭶11 ᪥ࡢእົ┬ኌ᫂࡟࠶ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡿ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡇࡢኌ᫂ࡣࠕᮅ㩭ᡓதຨⓎࡢ 60 ࿘ᖺࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ࡜࡞ࡿ௒ᖺ࡟ࠊ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࢆᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟᥮࠼ࡿࡓࡵࡢ఍ㄯࢆ᪩ᛴ࡟ጞࡵࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ೵ᡓ༠ᐃᙜࠊࠊ஦ᅜ㸦」ᩘ㸧࡟୎㔜࡟ᥦ㆟ࡍࡿࠖ㸦ഐⅬࠊᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ࡉࢀࠊ௨㝆໭ᮅ㩭ࡢබᘧᩥ⊩࡛ࡣࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖ࡜࿧ࡤࢀࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊࡇࡢࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡣࠕ9࣭
19 ඹྠኌ᫂㸦6 ⪅఍ㄯඹྠኌ᫂ࠊ2005 ᖺ 9 ᭶ 19 ᪥᥇ᢥࢆᣦࡍ㸧࡟ࡶࠊᖹ࿴༠ᐃࢆ⥾⤖ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟㛵ࡍࡿၥ㢟࡟ゝཬࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ
㸦ᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ᣦ᦬ࡋࠊᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ၥ㢟ࢆ
6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃࡟఩⨨࡙ࡅ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣ 6 ⪅఍ㄯඹྠኌ᫂ࡢ୍ᩥࠊ
ࠕ┤᥋ࡢᙜ஦⪅ࡣ㐺ᙜ࡞ヰྜ࠸ࡢሙ࡛ࠊᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᜏஂⓗ࡞ᖹ࿴యไ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚༠㆟ࡍࡿࠖࢆᣦࡍࡀࠊࡇ
ࡢᩥ᭩ࡀ㡑ᅜ࡜୰ᅜࢆྵࡴ 6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡛᥇ᢥࡉࢀࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ᝿㉳ࡍࡿ࡜ࡁࠊࠕᜏஂⓗ࡞ᖹ࿴యไࠖࡣ㡑ᅜ࡜୰ᅜࢆྵࡳࠊࠕ㐺ᙜ࡞ヰྜ࠸ࡢሙࠖࡶࡲࡓࠊ࠿ࡘ࡚ 90 ᖺ௦࡟ࢪࣗࢿ࣮ࣦ࡛ᒎ㛤ࡉ
ࢀࡓ 4 ⪅఍ㄯ࡜ྠᵝࠊ㡑ᅜࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࠊ⡿ᅜࠊ୰ᅜ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᵓᡂࡉࢀࡿከᅜ㛫༠㆟࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ1ࠋ࡜ࡇࢁࡀࠊ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡣ 6 ⪅఍ㄯࡢᯟ⤌ࡳࢆᑛ㔜ࡍࡿ୍᪉࡛ࠊࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢ㠀᰾ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ
໬ࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ෌ࡧ㌶㐨࡟஌ࡏࡿ࡟ࡣࠊ᰾ၥ㢟ࡢᇶᮏᙜ஦⪅࡛࠶ࡿᮅ⡿㛫ࡢಙ㢗㔊ᡂ࡟ඃඛࠊࠊⓗ࡞ὀ┠ࢆᡶࢃ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠖ
㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜㏙࡭ࠊࠕࡑࡢ⾜ື㡰ᗎࢆࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢ
ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ
6 ⪅఍ㄯࡀኻᩋࡋࡓᩍカ࡟↷ࡽࡋࠊᐇ㊶ⓗせồ࡟ྜࢃࡏ࡚⧞ࡾୖࡆࢀࡤࡼ࠸࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖ
㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜୺ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢㄆ㆑࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊࠕᮅ⡿㛫ࡢಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࡀḞዴࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࡀࠕ6 ⪅఍ㄯࡀኻᩋࡋࡓᩍカ࡛ࠖ࠶ࡗࡓ࡞ࡽࠊࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࡢᇶᮏᙜ஦⪅࡛ࠖ࠶ࡿࠕᮅ⡿㛫ࡢಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࡇࡑࠊࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢ㠀᰾໬ࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ෌ࡧ㌶㐨࡟஌ࡏࡿࠖୖ࡛ᚲせ࡞ࠕᐇ㊶ⓗせồࠖ࡜࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵ࡟ᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡀᚲせ࡞ࡽࠊࡑࡢࠕᙜ஦⪅ࠖࡣ⡿ᮅ୧ᅜ࡟࡞ࡽࡊࡿ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡣࠊ⡿ᅜࠊ㡑ᅜࠊ୰ᅜࡀ 6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡛ྜពࡉࢀࡓࠕ㐺ᙜ࡞ู
ࢆ࠼࡞࠸2ࠋ
ࡢヰྜ࠸ࡢሙ࡛ࠖࡢ༠㆟ࢆ୺ᙇࡍࡿ୰ࠊ࠸࠿࡟ࡋ࡚ 6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡛ࡢ༠㆟࡜࠸࠺య⿢ࢆಖࡕ࡞
ࡀࡽࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ࡢ୺ᙇࢆ㈏ࡃ࠿࡜࠸࠺ⱞ៖ࡢ⏘≀࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ
ࡋ࠿ࡶࠊᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧࡜ᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡀ᮲௳㛵ಀ࡟࠶ࡿ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟࡛ࠖࡶࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࢆࠕඃඛࠖࡍ࡭ࡁࡇ࡜ࡀᙉㄪࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᑐ➼࡞ྲྀᘬ㛵ಀ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡇࢀ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊࡑࡢᚋⓎ⾲ࡉࢀࡓእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓㺀ᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡜᰾㺁࡛ࡶᩜ⾝ࡉࢀࡓࡀࠊࡑࡇ࡛ࡣࠕ㸦ᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢ㸧㠀᰾໬ࡢᐇ⌧ࡣ㸦⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢ㸧ಙ㢗㔊ᡂࢆᚲせ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ
㸦ᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ᣦ᦬ࡋࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࢆᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲
௳࡜ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࡢ㏫࡟ࡣᤊ࠼࡚࠸࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢഛᛀ㘓ࡣࠕᮍࡔ࡟೵ᡓ≧ែ࡟࠶ࡿᮅ㩭－ 27 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ࠊࠊ༙ᓥ࡛ᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡀ᪩ࡃ⥾⤖ࡉࢀࡿ࡯࡝࡟ࠊ㠀᰾໬࡟ᚲせ࡞ಙ㢗ࡀ㏿ࡸ࠿࡟㔊ᡂࡉࢀࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖ㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡢ⥾⤖ࢆඛỴ᮲௳࡜఩⨨࡙ࡅ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ 3ࠋ ௚᪉ࠊࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡣ⡿ᅜ࡟ྥࡅ࡚ࡢᖹ࿴ᨷໃ࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ㐣ཤ㯤ᾏ࡛ᒎ㛤ࡉࢀࡓⰄ⯲㛫ࡢ㖠ᧁᡓࢆᣲࡆࡿࡲ࡛ࡶ࡞ࡃࠊࡑࢀࡀ㌷஦ᨷໃ࡜୪⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࡣᙉㄪࡍ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ㐣ཤࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓᶵᵓࢆពᅗⓗ࡟ゎయࡋࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᶵ⬟୙඲࡛࠶ࡿࡀᨾ࡟ࠊࡑࢀ࡟௦᭰ࡍࡿᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡢᚲせᛶࢆッ࠼࡚࠸ࡓࠋ࡜ࡾࢃࡅࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ⡿ᅜࢆᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟ᑟࡃୖ࡛᭷ຠ࡜⪃࠼ࡓࡢࡀࠊ໭᪉㝈⏺⥺㸦Northern Limit Line: NLL㸧࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋNLL ࡣ㌷஦ቃ⏺⥺࡜ࡣ␗࡞ࡾࠊᅜ㐃㌷ྖ௧㒊ࡀ୍᪉ⓗ࡟ᐉᕸࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ㯤ᾏ 5 ᓥ௜㏆ࡢ⥭ᙇࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࡑࡢࠕ⹫ᵓᛶࠖࢆ㄂♧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓࠋ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖᚋࡶࠊ㡑ᅜᾏ㌷ာᡄⰄࠕኳᏳࠖྕࡢỿἐ㸦2010 ᖺ 3 ᭶ 26 ᪥㸧ࠊᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁ㸦2010 ᖺ 11 ᭶23 ᪥㸧࡞࡝ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡀ㯤ᾏ࡟㞟୰ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢࡣഅ↛࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ
ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᖹ࿴ᨷໃ࡜㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ᑐ⡿ഴᩳࢆᙉࡵࡿࡢ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ㡑ᅜࡢᮤ᫂༤ᨻᶒࡣࠕኳᏳࠖྕỿἐ࡜ᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁࡢ஧ࡘࡢ஦௳࡟ࡘ࠸࡚໭ᮅ㩭ࡢㅰ⨥ࡀ࡞࠸㝈ࡾࠊ༡໭ᑐヰࡢ㐍ᒎࡣᮃࡵ࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺❧ሙࢆሀᣢࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊ༡໭ᑐヰࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚໭ᮅ㩭ࢆ 6⪅఍ㄯ෌㛤࡟ᑟࡃࡇ࡜ࢆ⪃࠼ࡓࠋ౛࠼ࡤࠊ2011 ᖺኟࡢᮾ༡࢔ࢪ࢔ㅖᅜ㐃ྜᆅᇦࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ
㸦ASEAN Regional Forum: ARFࠊ2011 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 23 ᪥ࠊ᪊ࣂࣜ㸧ࢆᶵ఍࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᮔ⩏᫓࡜㔠ᫍ↵ࡢ༡໭እ┦఍ㄯ࡟ຍ࠼ࠊ㡑ᅜࡢ㡑༙ᓥᖹ࿴஺΅ᮏ㒊㛗㨯⪷὜࡜໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬๪┦ࡢᮤᐜᾈࡢ㛫࡛ࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯ㤳ᖍ௦⾲࡟ࡼࡿ༡໭㛫఍ྜࡀᐇ⌧ࡋࡓࠋ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊࡇࢀ࡛໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ⡿ഴᩳࡀᨵࡲࡗࡓࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋ༡໭㛫఍ྜࢆཷࡅࠊ໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬➨୍๪┦ࡢ㔠᱇ෙࡀゼ⡿ࡋࠊ࣎ࢫ࣮࣡ࢫ㸦Stephen W. Bosworth㸧໭ᮅ㩭ၥ㢟ᢸᙜ≉ู௦⾲࡜⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢ᥋ゐࡶ࠶ࡗࡓࡀ㸦2011 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 28 ᪥㹼29 ᪥㸧ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ༡໭ᑐヰࡼࡾ⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢ༠㆟ࢆඃඛࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ2011 ᖺ 9 ᭶ࠊ㨯⪷὜࡜ᮤᐜᾈࡣ໭ி࡛෌ࡧ఍ྜࡢᶵ఍ࢆᚓࡓࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ㡑ᅜࡀồࡵࡿࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢࡓࡵࡢ஦๓ᥐ⨨ࢆᣄ⤯ࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊ
⡿ᅜ࡜ࡣ 10 ᭶࡟ࢪࣗࢿ࣮ࣦ࡛ࠊ࣎ࢫ࣮࣡ࢫࡢᚋ௵ࡢࢹ࣮ࣦ࢕࣮ࢫ㸦Glyn Davies㸧࡜༠㆟ࢆࡶࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢ㛫ࠊ⡿ᅜࡣ㡑ᅜࠊ᪥ᮏ࡜༠㆟ࡢୖ࡛ࠊᑀ㎶ࡢ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࢆ༶᫬
೵Ṇࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ຍ࠼ࠊࠕኳᏳࠖྕỿἐ࡜ᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁࡢࡼ࠺࡞஦௳ࡢ෌Ⓨࢆ㜵ࡄࡓࡵ࡟㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡢ㑂Ᏺࢆ໭ᮅ㩭࡟ồࡵ࡚࠸ࡓ 4ࠋ
2011 ᖺ 12 ᭶ 17 ᪥ࠊ㔠ṇ᪥ࡀṚཤࡋࡓ࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎࠊ୍㐃ࡢ⡿ᮅ༠㆟ࡣ㏵⤯࠼ࡿࡇ࡜࡞ࡃࠊࡑࡢ୍ᛂࡢ⤖ᐇ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ2012 ᖺ 2 ᭶ 29 ᪥࡟࠸ࢃࡺࡿࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡀᡂ❧ࡋࡓࠋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣ㔠ṇ᪥Ṛཤᚋࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᅜ㝿♫఍࡜஺ࢃࡋࡓ᭱ึࡢྜព࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡀ⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢ㛫࡛஺ࢃࡉࢀࡓࡇ࡜ࡣࠊ㔠ṇᜠᨻᶒࡀ㔠ṇ᪥ᨻᶒୗ࡜ྠᵝ࡟ࠊ⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢྜពࢆඃඛࡋࡓ
ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡋ࠿ࡋࠊ
ࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣࠊ2012 ᖺ 4 ᭶ 13 ᪥࡟໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࢆⓎᑕࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛▷࿨࡟⤊ࢃࡾࠊ෌ࡧ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ㐪཯࡟࠶ࡓࡿᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ♧၀ࡋࠊᮤ᫂༤ᢈุࡣⱔⅯࢆᴟࡵࠊࠕ♽ᅜ⤫୍኱ᡓࠖ࡜ࡢㄒ࡟ゝཬࡍࡿ࡟⮳ࡗࡓࠋᮏ✏ࡣࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢᡂ❧࡜↓ຠ໬ࡢ㐣⛬ࢆ㎺ࡗࡓᚋࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ࠸࠺⡿ᅜ࡟ྥࡅ࡚ࡢࠕ᰾－ 28 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ᢚṆຊࠖࡀᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃ࡟࠸࠿࡟స⏝ࡍࡿ࠿ࢆ⪃࠼࡚ࡳࡿࠋࡑ࠺ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ2012 ᖺᮎࠊⓎᑕᐇ㦂࡟ᡂຌࡋࡓࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡀࠊ௒ᚋࡢ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ༡㛵ಀ࡟ࡶࡓࡽࡍព࿡ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ㸰. ࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡜㌷஦೵ᡓయไ̿̿ᮤ᫂༤᤼㝖ࡢຊᏛ㸦㸯㸧๓౛࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢࠕ⡿ᮅ࣋ࣝࣜࣥྜពࠖ2012 ᖺ 2 ᭶ 23 ᪥࡜ 24 ᪥ࠊࢹ࣮ࣦ࢕࣮ࢫࡽ࡜㔠᱇ෙࢆᅋ㛗࡜ࡍࡿ໭ᮅ㩭௦⾲ᅋࡣ໭ி࡛ࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯࡢ෌㛤࡞࡝ࢆ༠㆟ࡋࡓᮎࠊྠ᭶ 29 ᪥࡟࠸ࢃࡺࡿࠕ㛨᪥ྜព㸦Leap Day Agreement㸧ࠖࢆ஺ࢃࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ༠㆟ࡣ๓ᖺ࡟ࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡ࡜ࢪࣗࢿ࣮ࣦ࡛⾜ࢃࢀࡓ⡿ᮅ༠㆟ࢆᘬࡁ⥅ࡄࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊࢹ࣮ࣦ࢕࣮ࢫࡣࡇࢀ࡟ඛࡔࡗ࡚ゼ㟢ࡋࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯ㤳ᖍ௦⾲ࡢࣔࣝࢢࣟࣇ㸦IgorMorgulov㸧እົḟᐁ࡜༠㆟ࡋࡓᚋࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯᢸᙜ≉౑࡛࠶ࡿࣁ࣮ࢺ㸦Clifford Hart㸧ࢆྠ⾜ࡋ࡚໭ிධࡾࡋࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡛㆟㛗ࢆົࡵࡿṊ኱೧࡜ࡶ༠㆟ࢆࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ5ࠋࡲࡓࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣ⨫ྡᩥ᭩࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ⡿ᮅ཮᪉ࡀྜពෆᐜࢆูࠎ࡟Ⓨ⾲ࡍࡿᙧᘧࢆ
࡜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ᣺ࡾ㏉ࡗ࡚ࡳࡿ࡜ࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞Ⓨ⾲ᙧᘧࡣࠊ1999 ᖺ 9 ᭶࡟໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕ෾⤖࡟㛵ࡋ࡚஺ࢃࡉࢀࡓࠕ⡿ᮅ࣋ࣝࣜࣥྜពࠖ࡜㓞ఝࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢྜពࡢ᰾ᚰࡣ⡿ᮅ༠㆟࡜໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࡢ෾⤖࡜ࡢ㛵ಀ࡟࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬௦ᘚேࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊࠕࢃࢀࢃࢀࡣ⡿ᅜࡢせㄳ࡟ᚑࡗ࡚ᮅ⡿㛫ࡢᠱ᱌ၥ㢟㸦」ᩘ㸧ࢆゎỴࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢ㧗఩⣭఍ㄯࢆ㐍⾜ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡾࠊࡇࡢ఍ㄯࡀࡉࡽ࡟ࡼ࠸㞺ᅖẼࢆ㐀ᡂࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࡇࡢ఍ㄯࡀ㐍⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿᮇ㛫࡟ࠊ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࢆ⾜ࢃ࡞࠸࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖ㸦ഐⅬࠊᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜࠸࠺ࡶࡢ࡛ࠊ⾲⌧ୖࡢ┦㐪ࢆ㝖ࡅࡤࠊ⡿ᅜົ┬ࢫ࣏࣮ࢡࢫ࣐ࣥ࡟ࡼࡿⓎ⾲ᩥ࡜ෆᐜⓗ࡟኱ࡁ࡞㱈㱒ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ6ࠋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ഃ࠿ࡽࡢⓎ⾲ࡣࠊᮅ㩭୰ኸ㏻ಙ♫ࡢ㉁ၥ࡟እົ┬௦ᘚࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊேࡀ⟅࠼ࡿᙧࢆ࡜ࡾࠊࠕࢃࢀࢃࢀࡣ⡿ᅜࡢせㄳ࡟ᚑࡗ࡚⡿ᮅ㧗఩⣭఍ㄯࡀ⫯ᐃⓗ࡞㞺ᅖẼࢆࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࠊ⤖ᐇ࠶ࡿ఍ㄯࡀ㐍⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿᮇ㛫ࠊ᰾ᐇ㦂࡜㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࠊᑀ㎶ࠊࡢ࢘ࣛࢽ࣒࢘⃰⦰άືࢆ⮫᫬୰Ṇࡋࠊ࢘ࣛࢽ࣒࢘⃰⦰࡞࡝ࡢάືࡢ⮫᫬୰Ṇ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ᅜ㝿ཎᏊຊᶵ㛵ࡢ┘どࢆチᐜࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡋࡓࠖ㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜㏙࡭ࡓୖ࡛ࠊ⡿ᅜࡀ 24 ୓ࢺࣥ࡟ཬࡪᰤ㣴㣗ရࢆᥦ౪ࡋࠊ㏣ຍⓗ࡞㣗⣊ᨭ᥼ࡶ⣙᮰ࡋࡓ࡜㏙࡭࡚࠸ࡓ 7ࠋ୍▌ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡜ࠕ⡿ᮅ࣋ࣝࣜࣥྜពࠖࡢⓎ⾲ᩥࡀ㓞ఝࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡾࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࡇࡢྜពࢆ⧳ࡵࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࠊࠕ⡿ᮅ࣋ࣝࣜࣥྜពࠖ࡜ྠᵝࡢᡭἲ࡛ᑐ⡿㛵ಀࢆᨵၿࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆᵓ᝿ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊ᰾ᐇ㦂ࠊ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰࡞࡝኱㔞◚ቯරჾࡢ㛤Ⓨࡢ೵Ṇࢆ஺᥮᮲௳࡜ࡋ࡚ᑐヰࢆồࡵࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡀ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢせồ࡟ᛂࡌ࡞ࡅࢀࡤࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢάືࢆ෌㛤ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ⡿ᅜ࡟ㆡṌࢆ㏕ࡿ࡜࠸࠺ᡭἲ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊ
ࡇࡢྜពࢆ⧳ࡵࡓᚋ࡟ࢹ࣮ࣦ࢕࣮ࢫࡀྤ㟢ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟ࠊࠕ⡿ᮅ࣋ࣝࣜࣥྜពࠖ
࡜ྜពෆᐜࡢⓎ⾲ᙧᘧ࡜ᑐ⡿㛵ಀᨵၿࡢᡭἲࡣྠᵝ࡛࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢゎ㔘࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⡿ᮅ㛫࡟㱈㱒ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࡣྰࡵ࡞࠸8ࠋ

－ 29 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開⡿ᅜഃࡣࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢⓎ⾲࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊࢾ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ㸦Victoria Nuland㸧ᅜົ┬ࢫ࣏࣮ࢡࢫࣃ࣮ࢯࣥ࡟ࡼࡿሗ㐨ྥࡅⓎ⾲ᩥ㸦Press Statement㸧࡜࠸࠺ᙧࢆ࡜ࡗࡓࡀࠊ᭱ึ࡟ᣦ᦬ࡍ࡭ࡁࡣࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ෾⤖ࡍ࡭ࡁάື࡟ᣲࡆࡽࢀࡓࡢࡀࠊࠕ᰾ᐇ㦂ࠊ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࢆྵࡴࠊᑀ㎶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᰾άື㸦nuclear activities at Yonbyon,including uranium enrichment activities㸧ࠖ9࡜ࡉࢀࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰ࡣᑀ㎶ࡢ᰾άືࡢ୍㒊࡛࠶ࡾࠊࣉࣝࢺࢽ࣒࢘࡟㛵ࡍࡿࡶࡢࡶྵࡴ࡜ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛ࡣࠊᑀ㎶ࡢ
5MW ཎᏊ⅔࡜㛵㐃᪋タࡢ↓⬟ຊ໬ࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿ࡜ࡉࢀࠊࠕ2࣭13 ྜពࠖ㸦2007 ᖺ 2 ᭶ 13 ᪥㸧ࡢෆᐜࢆ෌☜ㄆࡍࡿᙧ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡟ࡣࡇࢀ࡟┦ᙜࡍࡿᩥゝࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࢾ࣮ࣛࣥࢻࡣࣉࣝࢺࢽ࣒࢘ᢳฟࡶ೵Ṇࡉࢀࡿ᰾άືࡢ୍㒊࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆᙉㄪࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ10ࠋࡲࡓࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛ࠕ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࠖࡀᑀ㎶࡟㝈ᐃࡉࢀࡿ࠿ྰ࠿ࡣ☜ᐃ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛ࡣࠕ࢘ࣛࢽ࣒࢘⃰⦰άືࠖࡀᑀ㎶࡟㝈ᐃࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡋ࠿ࡶࠊ⡿ᮅ཮᪉ࡢⓎ⾲ᩥࡀ➼ࡋࡃࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࡢ೵Ṇ㸦moratorium㸧ࡢ᳨ド࡜┘どࡢࡓࡵ࡟ IAEA ᰝᐹᐁࡀᑀ㎶࡟᚟ᖐࡍࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ௨ୖࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ⡿ᅜࡶ
ᑀ㎶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࢆᛕ㢌࡟⨨࠸࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࠋࡼࡃᣦ᦬ࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰ࡣ᰾⇞ᩱ෌ฎ⌮࠾ࡼࡧࣉࣝࢺࢽ࣒࢘ᢳฟ࡟୙ྍ㑊࡞ᨺᑕᛶ࢞ࢫࢆᨺฟࡏࡎࠊࡲࡓ኱つᶍ࡞෭༷᪋タࢆᚲせ࡜ࡋ࡞࠸ࡓࡵࠊᆅୗ࡟⃰⦰᪋タࢆᘓタ࡛ࡁࡿ࡞࡝⛎༏ᛶࡣ㧗࠸ࠋ㡑ᅜᅜ఍࡛ࡶࡑࡢ๓ᖺ 10 ᭶ࠊ⮬⏤ඛ㐍ඪࡢᮔᐉᫎ㆟ဨࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᑀ㎶࡜ࡣู࡟ᖹᏳ໭㐨ᮾ಴㒆ᰩ㇂㔛ࡢᆅୗ࡟᏶ᡂࡉࡏࡓ࡜Ⓨゝࡋࡓࡤ࠿ࡾ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ 11ࠋ㸦㸰㸧ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖ࡜ᑐẚࡉࡽ࡟ࠕ㛨᪥ྜព࡛ࠖ≉➹ࡍ࡭ࡁࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ㔠ṇ᪥⏕Ꮡ୰ࡢࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖ࠿ࡽᙉㄪࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖ࡜࠶ࡿ࡭ࡁᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟ࡶゝཬࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡟ࡼࡿ࡜ࠊ⡿ᮅ཮᪉ࡣࠕ9࣭19 ඹྠኌ᫂㸦6 ⪅఍ㄯඹྠኌ᫂ࢆᣦࡍ㸧ࢆᒚࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ⾜ࡍࡿពᚿࢆ෌☜ㄆࡋࠊᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡀ⥾⤖ࡉࢀࡿࡲ࡛ࠊ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏▼࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆㄆࡵࡓࠖ㸦ഐⅬࠊᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ࡉࢀࡓࠋࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ୺ᙇࡣࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓయไࡣ⡿ᅜࡢࠕ㐪཯ࠖ⾜Ⅽ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᶵ⬟୙඲࡟㝗ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡋࠊࡑ࠺࡛࠶ࡿࡀᨾ࡟ࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫࡟ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ࡟௦ࢃࡿᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡀᚲせ࡜ࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ
ࠕኳᏳࠖỿἐ௨
᮶ࡢᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡶࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓయไࡀࠕ㯞⑷ࠖ≧ែ࡟࠶ࡾࠊ⡿ᅜ࡜㡑ᅜࡀ NLL ࡟ᅛᇳࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㝈ࡾࠊ㯤ᾏ࡛ࡢṊຊ⾜౑ࡀࡑࢀ௨㝆ࡶ࠶ࡾ࠺ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ㄂♧ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡑ࠺ࡔ࡜ࡍࢀࡤࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢㄆ㆑࡟࠾࠸࡚ࠊᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᖹ࿴యไࡢᶞ❧ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓయไࡢࠕ㯞⑷ࠖ≧ែ࡛࠶ࡿㄆ㆑ࡢୖ࡟఩⨨࡙ࡅࡽࢀࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡢ㑂Ᏺࢆ๓ᥦ࡜ࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡟࠶ࡿ⡿ᮅ཮᪉ࡀࠕ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏
▼࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆㄆࡵࡓࠖ࡜ࡢ㒊ศ࡟㝈ࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛୺ㄒࡀࠕ⡿ᅜࠖ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ௚ࡣྠ୍࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢ๓ᖺ࠿ࡽ⡿ᅜࡀồࡵ࡚࠸ࡓ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡢ㑂Ᏺࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࢆࡳ࡚ࡶࠊࡇࡢ㒊ศࡣ⡿ᅜࡢ។ឺ࡟ࡼࡿࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼࡚ࡼ࠸ࠋ

－ 30 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ෑ㢌࡟♧ࡋࡓ㏻ࡾࠊ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡣࠊ」ᩘࡢࠕ೵ᡓ༠ᐃᙜ஦ᅜࠖ࡟ᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ࢆ࿧ࡧ࠿ࡅ࡚ࡣ࠸ࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯࡢኻᩋࢆ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗ࠖࡢḞዴ࡟ࡼࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࢆ࿧ࡧ࠿ࡅ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡀᵓ᝿ࡍࡿᖹ࿴యไ࡜ࡣࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯඹྠኌ᫂ࡀ࠸࠺ࠕᜏஂⓗ࡞ᖹ࿴యไࠖ࡜ࡣ␗࡞ࡾࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢ᤼௚ⓗ࡞ᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃࡶࡢ࡜࡞ࡽࡊࡿࢆ࠼࡞࠸ࠋ⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥࡀࠊࠕ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏▼࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆㄆࡵࡓࠖ࡜ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࡶࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡛ࡣࡑࡢ๓ẁ࡟࠶ࡿࠕᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡀ⥾⤖ࡉࢀࡿࡲ࡛ࠖ࡟ゝཬࡋ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡢࡣࠊ࠶ࡿ࡭ࡁࠕᖹ࿴༠ᐃࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⡿ᮅ㛫࡟ྜពࡀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ཯ドࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡇࢀ࡜㛵㐃ࡋ࡚ࠕ㛨᪥ྜព࡛ࠖ≉➹ࡍ࡭ࡁࡣࠊᑐ༡㛵ಀ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡢゝཬࢆḞ࠸࡚࠸ࡓࡇ
࡜࡛࠶ࡿࠋ๓ᖺࡢ ARF ࢆዎᶵ࡟ࡋࡓ༡໭㛫᥋ゐ࡛ࠊ༡໭ᑐヰࢆ㉳Ⅼ࡜ࡋ࡚ 6 ⪅఍ㄯࢆ෌㛤ࡍࡿ࡜ࡢྜព࡟ᚑ࠸ࠊ⡿ᅜࡶ⡿ᮅ㛵ಀᨵၿࡀࠕࢯ࢘ࣝࢆ⤒⏤ࠖࡍ࡭ࡁࡇ࡜ࢆᙉㄪࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡀᑐ༡㛵ಀ࡟㛵ࡍࡿྜពࢆḞࡃ୍᪉࡛ࠊᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧࡜࠸࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎ12ࠊ࠺ᮅ㩭༙ᓥᅛ᭷ࡢၥ㢟ࢆྵࢇ࡛࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࡣ㡑ᅜ࡟ᙉ࠸ᠱᛕࢆ᳜࠼ࡘࡅࡓࠋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢᚋࠊࢹ࣮ࣦ࢕࣮ࢫࡣᯘ⪷⏨እ஺㏻ၟ㒊㡑༙ᓥᖹ࿴஺΅ᮏ㒊㛗ࡽ࡜ࢯ࡛࢘ࣝࡢグ⪅఍ぢ࡟⮫ࢇࡔࡀࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࢆ⧳ࡵࡿ㝿ࠊ㔠᱇ෙ࡟༡໭ᑐヰ࡞ࡃࡋ࡚⡿ᮅᑐヰࡀ㐍ᒎࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ࡞࠸࡜ᙉㄪࡋࡓ࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎࠊ㔠᱇ෙ࠿ࡽࡣ༡໭ᑐヰࢆ⾜࠺࡜ࡢ♧၀ࡶ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ࡜㏙࡭ࡓ࡜ࡁࠊᯘ⪷⏨ࡣ⡿ᮅ㛵ಀࡢᨵၿࡢ㐣⛬࡛༡໭ᑐヰࢆ෌㛤ࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡢ㔜せᛶࢆᨵࡵ࡚ᙉㄪࡋ࡞ࡅ
ࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ13ࠋ࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫ࠿ࡽ㡑ᅜࢆ᤼㝖ࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ௨๓࡟㐳ࡿࡀࠊࡇࡢᖺࡢ 2 ᭶ 2 ᪥ࠊᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁࡀᮤ᫂༤ᨻᶒ࡟ྥࡅ࡚᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓබ㛤㉁ၥ≧ࡣࠊࠕ࣮࣭࢟ࣜࢰࣦࣝࠖࠊࠕࣇ࢛࣮࣭ࣝ࢖࣮ࢢࣝࠖ⡿㡑ྜྠ₇⩦ࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡍࡿᮤ᫂༤ᨻᶒࢆཝࡋࡃᢈุࡍࡿෆᐜ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࡓࡀࠊࡑࡇ࡟ࡣࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢ⥭ᙇࢆ⦆࿴ࡋࠊᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ࢆ┠ᶆ࡟ࢃࢀࢃࢀࡀࡍ࡛࡟ጞࡵࠊࠊࠊ࡚࠸ࡿᮅ⡿᭱㧗఩⣭㌷㒊᥋ゐࢆྛ᪉㠃࠿ࡽጉᐖࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡢࡣ௚࡞ࡽࡠᮤ᫂༤㏫ᚐ࡛࠶ࡿࠖ14㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ࡢ୍ᩥࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡇ࡛࠸࠺ࠕᮅ⡿᭱㧗఩⣭㌷㒊᥋ゐࠖࡀఱࢆᣦࡍ࠿ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࡑ࠺࿧ࡤࢀࡿ࡭ࡁ᥋ゐࡀᐇ㝿࡟࠶ࡗࡓ࡜ࡶ⪃࠼࡟ࡃ࠸ࡀࠊࡇࡢ୍ᩥ࠿ࡽ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ౫↛࡜ࡋ࡚㡑ᅜࢆᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫ࠿ࡽ᤼㝖ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ᇳ╔ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡍ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࢆ୺ᑟࡋࡓእົ┬ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ㌷࡜ࡶඹ᭷ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ
㸱. ࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢࠕ↓ຠ໬ࠖ̿̿ࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕኻᩋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ೵Ṇࡍ࡭ࡁ᰾άືࠊ࠶ࡿ࡭ࡁᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⡿ᮅ㛫࡟㱈㱒ࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊᮅ㩭ປാඪ௦⾲⪅఍ࡢ㛤ദ࡟ྜࢃࡏ࡚ࠊ
ࠕᆅ⌫ほ⾨ᫍ

ග᫂ᫍ 3 ྕࠖ࡜ࡍࡿࠕேᕤ⾨ᫍࠖ㐠ᦙࣟࢣࢵࢺࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡢⓎᑕࢆⓎ⾲ࡋࡓᏱᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேࡢㄯヰᩥࢆᶵ࡟ 15ࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣࡉࡽ࡟ືᦂࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࠋ⡿ᅜࢆࡣࡌ－ 31 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ࡵᅜ㝿♫఍ࡣࠊࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕࡣ஦ᐇୖࡢᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕ࡟௚࡞ࡽࡎࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ㐪཯࡟࠶ࡓࡿ࡜ᢈุࡋࡓ࠿ࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ☜࠿࡟ࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⡿ᮅ཮᪉ࡢⓎ⾲ᩥࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ೵Ṇࡍ࡭ࡁάື࡜ࡋ࡚ࠕ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕࠖࢆᣲࡆ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕ࡛ࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࢆពᅗⓗ࡟◚Რࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡋࡓࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ஦ᐇࠊᏱᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேࡀࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࢆⓎᑕࡍࡿ࡜ࡋࡓㄯヰᩥࢆⓎ⾲ࡋࡓ᪥ࠊᮅ㩭ཎᏊຊጤဨ఍ࡣ IAEA
஦ົᒁ㛗ᐄ࡚࡟ IAEA せဨࡢᣍㄳ≧ࢆ㏦ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓ16ࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕࡀࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟཯ࡋ࡞࠸࡜ᙉᘚࡋࡘࡘࠊ⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢྜពࢆ㑂Ᏺࡍࡿពᚿࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿ 17ࠋࡶ࡜ࡼࡾࠊࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡀᏱᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேࡢ࠸࠺ࡼ࠺࡞ࠕᆅ⌫ほ⾨ᫍࠖࡢ㐠ᦙࣟࢣࢵࢺ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ࡣ⪃࠼࡟ࡃ࠸ࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ୍㈏ࡋ࡚୺ᙇࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀ⡿ᅜ࡟ྥࡅ࡚࠶ࡿ௨ୖࠊ⡿ᮏᅵ࡟┤᥋฿㐩ࡍࡿᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࢆ᏶ᡂࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡣࠊࡑࡢ㔜せ࡞᮲௳࡜࡞ࡿࠋࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡀࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕᐇ㦂ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ᪥ᮏᾏἢᓊࡢ⯙Ỉ➃㔛ࡢ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕ᪋タ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ୰ᮅᅜቃ࡟㏆࠸ᮾ಴㔛ࡢすᾏ⾨ᫍⓎᑕሙ࡛‽ഛࡀࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ᫬Ⅼ࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᴟ㌶㐨࡟ἢࡗࡓᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕࢆ⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡓ࡜ุ᩿ࡍ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ
ୖ㏙ࡢᏱᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேࡢㄯヰࡣࠊࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡀࠕᴟ㌶㐨ࢆ࿘ᅇࡍࡿࠖ࡜᫂ゝࡋࡓୖ࡛ࠊᮾ಴㔛࠿ࡽࠕ༡᪉ྥࠖ࡟Ⓨᑕࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆண࿌ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࢀࡣศ㞳ࡉࢀࡓ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡀ୰ᅜࠊࣟࢩ࢔㡿ෆ࡟ⴠୗࡍࡿࡢࢆ㑊ࡅࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡀ⡿ᅜ࡟ྥࡅ࡚ࡢࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆᵓᡂࡍࡿ࡜ࡍࢀࡤࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᛕ㢌࡟⨨࠸࡚࠸ࡓࡢࡣࠊᐇ㝿ࡢⓎᑕ࡜ࡣ཯ᑐࡢࠕ໭᪉ྥࠖ࡬ࡢⓎᑕ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ࡟㐪࠸࡞࠸ࠋࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡢⓎᑕࡣኻᩋ࡟⤊ࢃࡗࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊᅜ㐃Ᏻಖ⌮ࡣࡑࢀࡀࠕᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝᢏ⾡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓⓎᑕᐇ㦂ࠖࢆ⚗ࡌࡓࠕᏳಖ⌮Ỵ㆟ 1718 ࡜Ᏻಖ⌮Ỵ㆟ 1874 ࡬ࡢ῝้࡞㐪཯࡛ࠖ࠶ࡾࠊ
ࠕᆅᇦ࡟㔜኱࡞Ᏻಖୖࡢ៧៖ࢆᣍ࠸ࡓࠖ࡜ࡍࡿ㆟㛗ኌ᫂ࢆ඲఍୍⮴࡛᥇ᢥࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ㆟㛗ኌ᫂ࡣࡲࡓࠊ໭ᮅ㩭࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࠕ௒ᚋᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝᢏ⾡ࢆ฼⏝ࡋࡓ࠸࠿࡞ࡿ㣕⩧యࡢⓎᑕࡸ᰾ᐇ㦂ࢆ⾜ࢃ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࠖࡶせồࡋࠊࠕ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࡉࡽ࡞ࡿ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࡸ᰾ᐇ㦂࡟㋃ࡳษࡗࡓ
ሙྜࠊᏳಖ⌮࡟࠾࠸࡚ไ⿢ᥐ⨨ࢆ࡜ࡿࠖ 18࡜ࡶ᫂ゝࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ㆟㛗ኌ᫂ࡣᏳಖ⌮ࡢ඲఍୍⮴࡛᥇ᢥࡉࢀࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗ࡚ࠊ⡿ᅜࡢࡳ࡟ࡼࡿኌ࡛᫂ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡋ࠿ࡋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜព࡛ࠖ⚗ࡌࡽࢀࡓࡢࡣࠕ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕ࡛ࠖ࠶ࡗ࡚ࠊேᕤ⾨ᫍ㐠ᦙࣟࢣࢵࢺⓎᑕࡣ⚗ࡌࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸࡟ࡶ࠿࠿ࢃࡽࡎࠊࡑࢀࢆࠕᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࠖ࡜ࡍࡿࡢࡣࠊ⡿ᅜࡢࠕᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࠖࡢⓎ㟢࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ࡋ࡚ᢈุࡋࠊ㆟㛗ኌ᫂ࡶ⡿ᅜࡀ୺ᑟࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡜ࡋ࡚᤼ᧁࡋࡓ 19ࠋࡑࡢୖ࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬ࡣ௦ᘚேㄯヰࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊࠕୡ⏺᭱኱ࡢ᰾ಖ᭷ᅜ࡛࠶ࡿ⡿ᅜࡢᩛどᨻ⟇ࡀ⥆ࡃ㝈ࡾࠊࢃࡀ᪉ࡣ⮬⾨ⓗ࡞᰾ᢚṆຊࢆࡉࡽ࡟ᙉ໬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡃࠖ 20࡜ㅻࡗࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㸲.ࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࡢ඲㠃ⓗぢ┤ࡋࠖ࡜ᑐ༡ᨷໃ ̿̿ࠕ♽ᅜ⤫୍኱ᡓࠖࡢㄽ⌮ᵓ㐀 㸦㸯㸧ࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖ࠿ࡽࡢᢈุࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡀ↓ຠ໬ࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡣࠊᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࡑࡇ࡛໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ⮫᫬୰Ṇࠖࡍࡿ࡜ࡋࡓ᰾ᐇ㦂࡟㐨ࢆ㛤ࡁࠊᑀ㎶࡛ࡢ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࡀ෌㛤ࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜

－ 32 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ࢆព࿡ࡍࡿࠋࡋ࠿ࡶୖ㏙ࡢ㏻ࡾࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢ୍ᩥࠊࠕ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏▼࡜࡞ࡿࠖࡢ୺ㄒࡣ᭕᫕࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊࡑࢀࡀྜព஦㡯࡜ࡋ࡚ゝཬࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ௨ୖࠊࡇࡢྜពࡀ↓ຠ࡟࡞ࢀࡤࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ࡬ࡢ㐪཯⾜Ⅽࢆ࡜ࡿ⾜ືࡢ⮬⏤ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢᣊ᮰࠿ࡽ㏨ࢀࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰άືࢆ෌㛤ࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࡢࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆ㧗ࡵࡿ୍᪉ࠊ෌ࡧࠕኳᏳࠖỿἐࠊᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁࡢࡼ࠺࡞㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ࡬ࡢ㐪཯࡟ᑐࡋ࡚⮬ࡽㄢࡋࡓไ⣙ࢆゎ㝖ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟➼ࡋ࠸ࠋ
ࡑࢀࡣ 2010 ᖺ⛅ࡢᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁ࡜ྠᵝࠊ㯤ᾏ࡛ᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆᒎ㛤ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊNLL ࡢࠕ⹫ᵓᛶࠖࢆ୺ᙇࡋࠊ㡑ᅜࢆ᤼㝖ࡋࡘࡘࠊ⡿ᅜࢆᖹ࿴༠ᐃ࡟ᑟࡇ࠺࡜ࡍࡿ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࡑࢀࡲ࡛ᚑ஦ࡋ࡚ࡁࡓᖖዓⓗ࡞ᡭἲ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡇ࡛⡿ᮅᖹ࿴༠ᐃࢆṇᙜ໬ࡍࡿ࡟ࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣᘬࡁ⥆ࡁࠊࡑࡢྲྀࡾỴࡵ࠿ࡽᮤ᫂༤ᨻᶒࢆ᤼㝖ࡋ࡞ࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵ࡟໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ⮬ࡽࡢᮤ᫂༤ᢈุࡢ᰿ᣐࡀࠊࡑࡢᒓᛶ࡟࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆᙉㄪࡋࡓࠋ౛࠼ࡤࠊ
ࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘ㄽホဨࡀᥖࡆࡓㄽホࡣࠊᮤ᫂༤ࡀᨻᶒⓎ㊊┤ᚋࠊࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖࢆ㺀そࡋࡓ㺁ࡇ࡜ࢆᣲࡆࠊ໭ᮅ㩭࡜ࡢࠕ඲㠃ᑐỴࢆᑐ໭ᨻ⟇࡜ࡋ࡚ᐉᕸࡋࡓࠖ 21࡜㠀㞴ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᨵࡵ࡚ᣦ᦬ࡍࡿࡲ࡛ࡶ࡞ࡃࠊࡇࡇ࡛࠸࠺ࠕ໭༡ඹྠᐉゝࠖ࡜ࡣࠊ2007 ᖺ 10 ᭶ 4 ᪥࡟㔠ṇ᪥ᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ጤဨ㛗࡜├Ṋ㕷๓኱⤫㡿࡜ࡢ༡໭㤳⬻఍ㄯ࡛஺ࢃࡉࢀࡓࠕ໭༡㸦༡໭㸧㛵ಀࡢⓎᒎ࡜ᖹ࿴⦾ᰤࡢࡓࡵࡢඹྠᐉゝࠖࢆᣦࡍࠋࡼࡃ▱ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡟ࠊࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖࡢ᰾ᚰࡢ୍ࡘࡣࠊࠕᾏᕞᆅᇦ࡜࿘㎶ᾏᇦࢆໟᣓࡍࡿすᾏᖹ࿴༠ຊ≉ูᆅᖏࢆタ⨨ࡋࠊඹྠ⁺ᧄ࡜ᖹ࿴Ỉᇦࡢタᐃࠊ⤒῭≉༊ᘓタ࡜ᾏᕞࡢά⏝ࠊẸ㛫⯪⯧ࡢᾏᕞ┤⯟㏻㐣ࠊ⮫ὠỤ㸦₎

Ụ㸧Ἑཱྀࡢඹྠ฼⏝➼ࢆ✚ᴟⓗ࡟᥎㐍ࡋ࡚࠸ࡃࡇ࡜ࠖ࡬ࡢྜពࢆ┒ࡾ㎸ࢇ࡛࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢྜព࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᙜึ࠿ࡽ㡑ᅜ㌷࠿ࡽࡢᢈุࡶᙉ࠿ࡗࡓࡀࠊ኱⤫㡿㑅ᣲ㐠ື୰࠿ࡽ NLLࠕᅛᏲࠖࡢ❧ሙࢆ࡜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓᮤ᫂༤ࡣࠊᨻᶒⓎ㊊ᚋ㛫ࡶ࡞ࡃࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖ࠿ࡽ㞳཯ࡋ࡚࠸ࡃࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡗࡓ22ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣᨻᶒⓎ㊊┤ᚋࡢᮤ᫂༤ࡢᑐ໭ጼໃ࡟ゝཬࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧࠿ࡽࡢᮤ᫂༤᤼ᧁࢆṇᙜ໬ࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡋࡓࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᨻᶒⓎ㊊ᙜึ࠿ࡽၥ㢟࡟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓᮤ᫂༤ࡢᑐ໭ጼໃࡀࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖࠊᑵ୰ࠊ㯤ᾏୖࡢࠕඹྠ⁺ᧄ࡜ᖹ࿴Ỉᇦࡢタᐃࠖ࡟㛵ࡍࡿྜព࡟㛵㐃ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ௨ୖࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࡑࡢᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡢᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚㯤ᾏࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢࡣᙜ↛࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋୖ㏙ࡢࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘ࡢㄽホࡣࠊࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖࡀᒚ⾜ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ࡞ࡽࡤࠊࠕ໭༡㛵ಀࡀࡉࡽ࡟ࡼࡃ࡞ࡾࠖࠊ㯤ᾏࡶࠕᖹ࿴ࡢᾏ࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠖ࡞ࡽࠕ௒᪥ࡢࡼ࠺࡞㝤ᝏ࡞஦ែࡀ⏕ࡌ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠖ㸦ᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜㏙࡭࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
㸦㸰㸧ࠕྠ᫬⾜ືཎ๎ࠖ࠿ࡽࡢ஋㞳ࡑࡢ୍᪉࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢᑐヰࢆྰᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊእົ┬௦ᘚேࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡢグᛕ᪥ࢆ๓࡟ࡋ࡚ࠊ⡿ᅜ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㺀ᩛどᨻ⟇ࢆᨺᲠࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣࠊ࠸ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ
࠿࡞ࡿሙྜ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠗ㉗ࡾ≀࠘ࡸྲྀᘬࡢල࡟࡞ࡾ࠼࡞࠸ࠋ⡿ᅜࡢᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࡣࡑࢀࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊ⮬యࡀ୙ᙜ࡛᫬௦㘒ㄗⓗ࡞ࡢ࡛ࠊᑓࡽ↓᮲௳࡛ඛ࡟᧔ᅇࡉࢀ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸㺁23㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ࡢㄯヰࢆⓎ⾲ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋෑ㢌࡟♧ࡋࡓ㏻ࡾࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ 2010 ᖺࡢ㺀1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ－ 33 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開

㆟㺁࡛ࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢ㺀ಙ㢗㔊ᡂ㺁ࢆࠕඃඛࠖࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ 6 ⪅఍ㄯࢆ㏻ࡌࡓࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ㠀᰾໬ࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ෌ࡧ㌶㐨࡟஌ࡏࡿࠖ࡜ࡋࠊྠᖺ 4 ᭶ࡢእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓ࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡜᰾ࠖࡶࠊ⡿ᮅᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡢ⥾⤖ࢆᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲௳࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡇࢀ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊእົ┬௦ᘚேࡢㄯヰࢆᏐ⩏㏻ࡾゎ㔘ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ⡿ᅜ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ඛ࡟ࠕᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࠖࢆᨺᲠࡍ࡭ࡁࡇ࡜ࢆせồࡋࡘࡘࡶࠊࡑࢀࢆᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲௳࡜ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡉ࠼ᣄ⤯ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࡇࡢ᫬ᮇࠊࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ࡜ࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡ࡛㠀බᘧࡢ⡿ᮅ㛫᥋ゐࡀ࠶ࡾࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ໭ᮅ㩭ഃ࠿ࡽࢳ࢙࣭ࢯࣥࣄእົ┬⡿ᕞᒁ๪ᒁ㛗ࠊ㡑ᡂⅯᅜ㐃௦⾲㒊ḟᖍ኱౑ࠊ⡿ᅜഃ࠿ࡽ࢘࢕ࢵࢺ㸦Joel Witt㸧ࡽࡀฟᖍࡋࠊࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡ࡛ࡣ㡑ᡂⅯ࡜ࣁ࣮ࢺ≉౑ࡀฟᖍࡋࡓࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡣࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡢ᥋ゐ࡛ࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࠕ㛵ᚰࡀ࡞࠸ࠖ࡜㏙࡭ࡓୖ
࡛ࠊ6 ⪅఍ㄯඹྠኌ᫂࡟ゝཬࡉࢀࡓࠕ⣙᮰ᑐ⣙᮰࣭⾜ືᑐ⾜ືࠖཎ๎㸦ྠ᫬⾜ືཎ๎㸧࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ⡿ᅜࡢ୍᪉ⓗ࡞⾜ືࢆồࡵࡓ࡜࠸࠺ 24ࠋ ࡇࡢᩥ⬦࡛ྲྀࡾୖࡆࡿ࡭ࡁࡣࠊࡲࡉ࡟ࡇࡢ᫬ᮇࠊ໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬ࡀ௦ᘚேኌ᫂ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆ඲㠃ⓗ࡟ぢ┤ࡉࡊࡿࢆ࠼࡞࠸ࠖ࡜㏙࡭ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿ 25ࠋࡑࡢ┤᥋ࡢዎᶵࡣࠊ໭
ᮅ㩭࡛ඖ⬺໭⪅ࡀ㔠᪥ᡂࡢ㖡ീ࡞࡝ࢆ◚ቯࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡋ࡚㐊ᤕࡉࢀࡓࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡿࡀࠊࡇࡢኌ᫂࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊࡑࢀࡀࠕ༡ᮅ㩭ഈൿ୍࿡ࡀ㉺༡㏨㉮⪅㸦࠸ࢃࡺࡿ⬺໭⪅㸧ࢆᢲࡋ❧࡚࡚௻࡚ࡓ≉኱ᆺࡢ㝜ㅛࠖ㸦ᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡛࠶ࡿࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࠕ⡿ᅜࡀ῝ࡃ௓ධࡋࡓ┿┦ࡀ᫂ⓑ࡜࡞ࡗࡓࠖ࡜࠸࠺ࠋࡇࡢኌ᫂ࡀ࠸࠺ࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆ඲㠃ⓗ࡟ぢ┤ࡍࠖࡇ࡜ࡀఱࢆᣦࡍࡢ࠿ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊࡇࡢኌ᫂ࡀࠕ⡿ᅜࡢᪧែ౫↛࡜ࡋࡓᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇࡟ࡼࡾ㸦୰␎㸧ᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢ㠀᰾໬ࡶࡉࡽ࡟㑈㐲࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ࡜㏙࡭࡚࠸ࡓ௨ୖࠊࡑࢀࡀ㺀᰾ᢚṆຊ㺁ࡢᙉ໬࡟㛵ࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ☜࠿࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡋ࠿ࡶࠊࡇࡇ࡛ࠕ⡿ᅜࡢᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࡀඛ࡟᰿※ⓗ࡟Ύ⟬ࡉࢀ࡞ࡅࢀࡤࠊᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᜏஂⓗ࡞ᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࢆಖ㞀ࡍࡿၥ㢟ࡣ⤯ᑐ࡟ゎỴࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࠖ㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜ᙉㄪࡉࢀࡓ㏻ࡾࠊࡇࡢኌ᫂ࡣ⡿ᅜࡢ୍᪉ⓗ࠿ࡘࠊ᰿※ⓗ࡞⾜ືࢆồࡵ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣୖ㏙ࡢ㠀බᘧࡢ⡿ᮅ㛫᥋ゐ࡛ࡶࡳࡽࢀࡓࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ⮬ࡽᙉㄪࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠕ⣙᮰ᑐ⣙᮰࣭⾜ືᑐ⾜ືࠖཎ๎㸦ྠ᫬⾜ືཎ๎㸧࠿ࡽ஋㞳ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆព࿡ࡍࡿࠋ☜࠿࡟ࠊࡇࡢኌ᫂ᚋࡶࠊࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ⨫ྡグᛕ᪥࡟ྜࢃࡏ࡚ࠊ⡿ᮅᖹ࿴ࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘ࡶࡑࡢ 2 ᪥ᚋ࡟࡯ࡰྠᵝࡢ୺᪨ࡢㄽホࢆᥖ㍕ࡋ࡚༠ᐃࢆồࡵࡿㄽホࢆᥖࡆ26ࠊ
ࠕ᰾࠸ࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽࡶ27ࠊࡇࢀ࡛໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ⡿ᮅᖹ࿴༠ᐃࢆ᩿ᛕࡋࡓ࡜ࡣ⪃࠼࡟ࡃ࠸ࠋࡋ࠿ࡋࠊၥ㢟ࢆ඲㠃ⓗ࡟ぢ┤ࡍࠖࡇ࡜ࡀࠊ⡿ᮅᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡼࡾࡶᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࢆඃඛࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡢ࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀࡣ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢ㺀ಙ㢗㔊ᡂ㺁ࢆࠕඃඛࠖࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ 6 ⪅఍ㄯࢆ㏻ࡌࡓࠕᮅ
㩭༙ᓥ㠀᰾໬ࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ෌ࡧ㌶㐨࡟஌ࡏࡿࠖ࡜ࡋࡓ 2010 ᖺࡢࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖࡢ୺᪨࡜
ࡶࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࢆᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲௳࡜ࡋࡓእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓ࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡜᰾ࠖࡢ୺᪨࡜ࡶ┦ᐜࢀ࡞࠸ࠋ ࡇࢀ࡟㛵㐃ࡋ࡚ࠊྠ᭶ᮎ࡟ᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேࡀⓎ⾲ࡋࡓኌ᫂ࡶ᳨ウࡉࢀ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞

－ 34 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開࠸ࠋࡇࢀࡶࡲࡓࠊඛࡢ⬺໭⪅࡟ࡼࡿ஦௳ࢆ㔜せどࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ᭱ࡶᙉㄪࡍ࡭ࡁࡣࠊࠕࢃࢀࢃࠊࠊࠊࢀࡢᑛཝ࡟ᡭฟࡋࡍࡿᅜᐙᨻ἞ࢸࣟ࡜኱ᑠࡢ౵␎ᡓத㦁ື࡟ᇳᣉ࡟ࡋࡀࡳࡘ࠸࡚ࠊ⡿ᅜᮏࠊᅵࢆࡣࡌࡵ㐲ࡃ㞳ࢀࡓࡑࡢᮏᣐᆅࡀᏳ඲࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ᛮ࠺࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀ࡯࡝ហ࠿࡞ࡇ࡜ࡣ࡞࠸࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖ㸦ഐⅬࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧28࡜ࡋࡓ㒊ศ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࠊⓎᑕኻᩋࡋࡓࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࢆ෌ࡧᴟ㌶㐨࡟஌ࡏࡿࡇ࡜࡛ࠊ⡿ᮏᅵࢆᑕ⛬࡟཰ࡵࡿࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࢆ┠ᣦࡍពᅗࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡇ࡟ࡣࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ⨫ྡࡢグᛕ᪥ࢆ๓࡟ࡋ࡚እົ┬௦ᘚேࡀ㏙࡭ࡓࡼ࠺࡟ࠊ⡿ᅜࡢࠕᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࠖ⮬యࡀࠕ୙ᙜ࡛ࠖ࠶ࡿ௨ୖࠊࡑࡢᨺᲠࡀࠕྲྀᘬࡢලࠖ࡟࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡼ࠺࡟ࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࡶࠕྲྀᘬࡢලࠖ࡟࡞ࡗ࡚ࡣ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸࡜ࡢពࡀ㎸ࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡿ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ㸦㸱㸧ࠕ⤫୍ࠖࡢྡࡢୗࡢ㌷஦ືဨࡑࡢᚋࠊࠕஎᨭࣇ࣮ࣜࢲ࣒࣭࣮࢞ࢹ࢕࢔ࣥ㸦Ulchi Freedom Guardian: UFG㸧ࠖ⡿㡑ྜྠ㌷
஦₇⩦㸦2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 20 ᪥㹼31 ᪥㸧ࡀᐇ᪋ࡉࢀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ゝཬࡉࢀࡓࠕ೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏▼ࠖ࡜ࡍࡿㄆ㆑࡜ࡣ㏫⾜ࡍࡿ⾜ື࡟㥑ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋUFGࡢ㛤ጞ┤๓ࠊ㔠ṇᜠ➨ 1 ᭩グࡣ㛗ᅾᓥ㜵⚪㝲ࠊⱱᓥ㜵⚪㝲ࢆどᐹࡋࠊࠕᩛࡀ࠶࠼࡚Ⓨ◙ࡋ࡚ࢃࢀࢃࢀࡢ㡿ᅵ࡟ࡓࡗࡓ୍ࡘࡢⅆࡢ⢊࡛ࡶⴠ࡜ࡍ࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀࢆす༡ᡓ⥺ࡢᒁᆅᡓத࡟࡜࡝ࡵࡎࠊ♽ᅜ⤫୍ࡢࡓࡵࡢ⪷ᡓ࡟ࡘ࡞ࡆࡼࠖ29࡜࿨ࡌࡓ࡜࠸࠺ࠋࡇࡇ࡛☜ㄆࡋ࡚࠾ࡃ࡭ࡁࡣࠊእົ┬௦ᘚேࡀ UFG ࡜㛵㐃ࡋ࡚ࠊࠕ௒᪥ࡢ⌧ᐇࡣࢃࢀࢃࢀ࡟ᡓதᢚṆຊࢆ≀⌮ⓗ࡟ࡉࡽ࡟ᙉ໬ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆồࡵ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆ඲㠃ⓗ࡟ぢ┤ࡍࡇ࡜࡟ࡋࡓࢃࢀࢃࢀࡢỴᚰࡀ඲ࡃṇࡋ࠿ࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ 30࡜㏙࡭ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡸࡣࡾࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆ඲㠃ⓗ࡟ぢ┤ࡍࠖࡇ࡜ࡀࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࢆඃඛࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࡣࠊࡇࡇ࠿ࡽࡶ᫂ࡽ࠿࡜࡞ࡿࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊᮅ㩭ேẸ㌷ᯈ㛛ᗑ௦⾲㒊ࡣኌ᫂ࢆⓎ⾲ࡋࠊUFG ࢆࠕᮅ㩭೵ᡓ༠ᐃ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ᭱ࡶ㟢㦵࡛㔜኱࡞᭱⤊ẁ㝵ࡢ◚ቯ⾜Ⅽࠖ࡜ࡋࡓୖ࡛ࠊࠕ⤫୍኱ᡓ࡛ࡣ೵ᡓ࡞࡝࠶ࡾ࠼࡞࠸ࠖ31࡜୺ᙇࡋࡓࠋᙉㄪࡍ࡭ࡁࡣࠊ㔠ṇᜠࡀࠕ♽ᅜ⤫୍ࡢࡓࡵࡢ⪷ᡓࠖ࡟ゝཬࡋࠊᮅ㩭ேẸ㌷ᯈ㛛ᗑ௦⾲㒊ࡢኌ᫂ࡶࠊ࠶ࡿ࡭ࡁᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆࠕ⤫୍ࠖࡢ⨾ྡ࡛ṇᙜ໬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿ 32ࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ࠿࠿ࡿ㌷஦ືဨࢆヨࡳࡓࡢ࡟ࡣࠊ⡿㡑ྜྠ㌷஦₇⩦ࢆࡣࡌࡵࠊ⡿ᅜࡢࠕᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࠖ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ⡿ᮏᅵࢆᑕ⛬࡟཰ࡵࡿࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀ᏶ᡂࡍࢀࡤࠊࠕᑐᮅ㩭༙ᓥᩛどᨻ⟇ࠖࢆࠕᢚṆ࡛ࠖࡁࡿ࡜ࡢㄆ㆑ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࢁ࠺ࠋࡋ࠿ࡶࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡢ↓ຠ໬࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࡢ㐪཯⾜Ⅽ࡟࠶ࡓࡿᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ⾜࠺ୖ࡛ࡢไ⣙ࢆእࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ4 ᭶ࡢࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕࡣኻᩋࡋࡓࡀࠊ⡿ᮏᅵࢆᑕ⛬࡟཰ࡵࡿࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆࡶ࡚ࡤࠊᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࡶ⡿ᅜࡣ௓ධࢆ㌋㌉ࡏࡊࡿࢆ࠼࡞࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ࡟㐪࠸࡞࠸ࠋ࠿ࡃࡋ࡚ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡣࠊᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡛ࡢ⡿ᅜࡢ㌷஦ⓗ௓ධࢆ㐽᩿ࡍࡿຠ⏝ࢆࡶࡘࠋᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆࠕ⤫୍ࠖࡢ⨾ྡ࡛ṇᙜ໬ࡋࡓࡢࡣࡑࡢࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡇࢀࢆཷࡅࠊ໭ᮅ㩭እົ┬ࡶ 8 ᭶ᮎ࡟㛗ᩥࡢഛᛀ㘓ࢆⓎ⾲ࡋࠊࠕ20 ᖺ࡟࠾ࡼࡪᮅ⡿఍ㄯࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࠊࡢṔྐࡣࠊ⡿ᅜࡢᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどほᛕࡀࡲࡎ᰿ࡇࡑࡂࡉࢀ࡞࠸㝈ࡾࠊྠ᫬⾜ືࡢཎ๎ࡶຠᯝࢆ

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第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開ࠊࠊࠊࠊ⌧ࡉ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠖ࡜ࡋࡘࡘࠊ㺀㔊ᡂࡉࢀࡓ᝟ໃࡣࠊࢃࡀඹ࿴ᅜ࡟ఱ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶᮅ㩭༙ᓥ
࡛ᡓத෌ⓎࢆᢚṆࡋࠊࡶࡋᡓதࡀ࠶ࡃࡲ࡛ࡶᙉせࡉࢀࡿሙྜ࡟ࡣ㏿ࡸ࠿࡟♽ᅜ⤫୍኱ᡓ࡬࡜ࡘ࡞ࡄ‽ഛࢆࡉࡽ࡟ᚭᗏⓗ࡟ᩚ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆồࡵ࡚࠸ࡿ㺁 33࡜㏙࡭ࡓࠋࡇࡢഛᛀ㘓࠿ࡽࡶࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆࠕྲྀᘬࡢලࠖ࡟ࡋ࡞࠸࡜ࡍࡿ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢỴព࡜ࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࡀᑐ༡Ṋຊ⾜౑ࡢㄏᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ാࡃຊᏛࢆㄞࡳྲྀࡿ࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ㸳. ᮔᵶᜨᢈุ࡜ᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖ̿̿ࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖⓎᑕᡂຌ࡜ᑐ༡㛵ಀ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᮤ᫂༤ᢈุࡣࠊୖ㏙ࡢ㔠᪥ᡂࡢ㖡ീࡢ◚ቯᮍ㐙஦௳࡛⃭ࡋࡉࢆቑࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࣁࣥࢼࣛඪ㑅ฟࡢ኱⤫㡿ೃ⿵ᮔᵶᜨࡀ኱⤫㡿㑅ᣲ㐠ື୰ࠊNLLࠕᅛᏲࠖࡢ❧ሙࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊࡑࡢᢈุࡣᮔᵶᜨ࡟ࡶྥࡅࡽࢀࡓࠋᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁ௦ᘚேࡣࠕṔྐⓗ࡞10࣭4 ᐉゝ࡟᫂グࡉࢀࡓᮅ㩭すᾏࡢඹྠ⁺ᧄ࠾ࡼࡧᖹ࿴Ỉᇦタᐃࡢၥ㢟ࡣࠊᚭ㢌ᚭᑿࠊNLL⮬యࡢ୙ἲ࣭㠀ἲࡉࢆ๓ᥦ࡟ࡋࡓ໭༡ྜពᥐ⨨ࡢ୍ࡘ࡛࠶ࡿࠖ࡜ࡢཎ๎ㄽࢆᒎ㛤ࡋࡓୖ࡛ࠊࠕNLL ᅛᏲࡢᡭἲࡣ⤖ᒁࠊᮅ㩭すᾏࢆྠ᪘ᑐỴࡢ⯙ྎ࡟ࡋࠊᘏᆤᓥࡢⅆࡢᾏࢆ෌⌧ࡍࡿᑐ
ࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖỴᐉゝࠊᡓதᭀゝ࡜ࡋ࠿ࡳࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠖ34࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᮤ᫂༤ᢈุ࡜ྠᵝࠊ࡜ࡢ㛵㐃ᛶ࡛ᮔᵶᜨࢆᢈุࡋࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࡉࡽ࡟ 10 ᭶ 18 ᪥ࠊᮤ᫂༤ࡀᘏᆤᓥࢆゼၥࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ෌ࡧᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁ௦ᘚேࡣࠊࠕᮤ
᫂༤㏫ᚐࡢᑐỴ≬Ẽࡀ⥆ࡃᘏᆤᓥゼၥࡣࠊす༡ᡓ⥺ྖ௧㒊⟶ୗࡢேẸ㌷ᑗරࢆࡣࡌࡵࠊࢃ
ࡀ༓୓ᑗර࡟ᛣࡾ࡜ሗ᚟ࡢ㖠ࢆᅛࡃᥱࡽࡏ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ35࡜㠀㞴ࡋࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊࡑࢀ࡜ྠ᪥ࠊእົ┬ࡶ㌷⦰࠾ࡼࡧᖹ࿴◊✲ᡤ௦ᘚேࡢㄯヰ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊᮤ᫂༤ࡢ NLLࠕᅛᏲࠖࡢጼໃࢆྲྀࡾୖ
ࡆࠊࡑࢀࡣࠕᮅ㩭すᾏࢆᖹ࿴༠ຊᆅᖏ࡟ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟㛵ࡍࡿࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢ໭༡ྜពࢆそࡋࠊᇳᶒᮇ㛫࡟໭༡㛵ಀࢆ◚ᒁ࡟㏣࠸㎸ࢇࡔ⮬ࡽࡢ⨥ࢆそ࠸㞃ࡑ࠺࡜ࡍࡿὸ▱ᜨ࡟㐣ࡂ࡞࠸ࠖ 36
࡜㏙࡭࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊᚋ⪅ࡢㄯヰࡣࠊᮤ᫂༤ᢈุ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ྠ᫬࡟ࠊ㑅ᣲ㐠ື୰࡟ NLLࠕᅛ
Ᏺࠖࡢጼໃࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓᮔᵶᜨᢈุ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡲࡓࠊᮔᵶᜨࡀࡑࡢጼໃ࡛ḟᮇᨻᶒ࡟ᑵࡃ
ࡢ࡞ࡽࠊᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡶ࠶ࡾ࠺ࡿ࡜ࡍࡿᜢ႑࡛ࡶ࠶ࡗࡓࢁ࠺ 37ࠋࡉࡽ࡟ࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࡢ኱⤫㡿㑅ᣲ㐠ືࡀ⤊┙࡟㏕ࡗࡓ 12 ᭶ 1 ᪥ࠊᮅ㩭Ᏹᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍ࡣ௦ᘚேㄯヰࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊྠ᭶ 10 ᪥࠿ࡽ 22 ᪥ࡢ㛫࡟ࠕࠗග᫂ᫍ 3 ྕ࠘2 ྕᶵࠖࡢᡴࡕୖࡆࡢ
ࡓࡵࡢࠕ㐠ᦙࣟࢣࢵࢺࠖࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࢆ 4 ᭶ࡢⓎᑕᐇ㦂࡜ྠᵝࠊすᾏ⾨ᫍⓎᑕሙ࠿ࡽⓎᑕࡍࡿ࡜ண࿌ࡋࡓ38ࠋ☜࠿࡟ࠊࡇࡢỴᐃ࡟ࡣ㔠ṇ᪥ࡀࠕᙉ┒኱ᅜࡢ኱㛛ࢆ㛤ࡃࠖ࡜ࡋࡓ 2012 ᖺ୰ࡢᙎ㐨࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࡢⓎᑕࢆᡂຌࡉࡏࡿ㔠ṇᜠࡢᙉ࠸ពᚿࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ4 ᭶ࡢⓎᑕᐇ㦂࡜ྠᵝࠊᴟ㌶㐨࡬ࡢᢞධࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ௨ୖࠊ⡿ᮏᅵࢆᑕ⛬࡟཰ࡵࡿᑐ⡿㺀᰾ᢚṆຊ㺁ࡢᙉ໬ࢆᅗࡿࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼࡚ࡼ࠸ࠋ
 2012 ᖺ 12 ᭶ 12 ᪥ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ㖟Ἑ 3࡛ࠖேᕤ⾨ᫍࠕࠗග᫂ᫍ 3 ྕ࠘2 ྕᶵࠖࡢ㌶㐨ᢞධ࡟ᡂຌࡋࡓࡇ࡜࡛ 39ࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀᙉ໬ࡉࢀࡓ࡜ㄆ㆑ࡋࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࡀࠊୖ࡟ࡳࡓࡼ࠺࡟ࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࡀᑐ༡Ṋຊ⾜౑ࡢㄏᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ാࡃ࡜ࡍࡿ࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀࡣ᪂ࡓ࡞ᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆண࿌ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ࡜࠸ࢃ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ

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第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開

㸴. ࠾ࢃࡾ࡟̿̿ ᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᒁᆅⓗຠ⏝᣺ࡾ㏉ࡗ࡚ࡳࢀࡤࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ࠸࠺ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖ࡜ᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃ࡜ࡢ㛫ࡢ㐃ືᛶࡣࡍ࡛࡟2010 ᖺࡢ஧ࡘࡢᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃ࡟ࡶࡳࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࠿ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡢ๓ᖺࡢ 2009 ᖺ 4᭶ 5 ᪥࡟໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࠕࢸ࣏ࢻࣥ㸫IIࠖ࡜ᛮࢃࢀࡿ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝࢆⓎᑕࡋࠊ⩣ 5 ᭶ 25 ᪥࡟ࡣ2 ᅇ┠ࡢ᰾ᐇ㦂ࢆᙉ⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ2010 ᖺࡢ஧ࡘࡢ㌷஦ᨷໃ࡟ࡣࠊ㔠ṇᜠࡢ㌷ෆ࡛ࡢᶒຊᇶ
┙ࡢ☜❧࡞࡝ࡢせᅉࡀస⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡼ࠺ࡀࠊ
㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕ࡜᰾ᐇ㦂࡟ࡼࡿࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬࡜ࡶ↓㛵ಀ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࡲ࠸ࠋ☜࠿࡟ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ࠸࠺ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀ⡿ᅜ࡟ྥࡅ࡚࡛࠶ࡿ௨ୖࠊࡑࢀࡣ᏶ᡂࡋࡓ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࡎࠊ⌧ᅾࡢ࡜ࡇࢁ₯ᅾⓗ࡞ḟඖ࡟࡜࡝ࡲࡿࠋࡋ࠿ࡋࡑࢀࡀ㢧ᅾ໬ࡋࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀ⡿ᮏᅵࢆᑕ⛬࡟཰ࡵࡿ࡜ࡁࠊ⡿ᅜࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡛ࡢṊຊ⣮த࡟ᅾ㡑⡿㌷ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ
ᅾ᪥⡿㌷ࢆྵࡴ⡿㌷ࢆᢞධࡍࡿ࡟ࡣࠊ⡿ᮏᅵࢆ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ᰾ࡢ⬣ጾ࡟᫹ࡉ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛⡿ᅜࡀ඲㠃ⓗ࡞㌷஦௓ධࢆ㌋㌉ࡍࡿ࡜ࡍࢀࡤࠊࡑࢀ࡟ᛂࡌ࡚໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃ㐪཯࡟࠶ࡓࡿᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃ࡟㥑ࡽࢀࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊ⡿㡑ྠ┕ࡀᮏ᮶ࠊᢚṆ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡣᢚṆ୙⬟࡜࡞ࡿࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀ 2010 ᖺ࡟ᩒ⾜ࡋࡓ஧ࡘࡢ㌷஦ᨷໃࡣࡑࢀࢆண࿌ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ࡜࠸࠺࡭ࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡑࡢ㝈ࡾ࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡢᙉ໬ࡣᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ⾜࠺ㄏᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚స⏝ࡍࡿࠋࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣࠊ᰾ᐇ㦂ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ㌷஦೵ᡓ༠ᐃࢆࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥࡢᖹ࿴࡜Ᏻᐃࡢ♏▼ࠖ࡜ࡢㄆ㆑࡟ゝཬࡋࡓⅬ࡛ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖ࡜ᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࡢ㛫ࡢ㐃ືᛶࢆ࠸ࡗࡓࢇ᩿ࡘࡶࡢ࡜ࡋ࡚ᮇᚅࡉࢀࡓࠋࡋ࠿ࡋࠊࡲࡉ࡟ࡑࡢ㺀㛨᪥ྜព㺁࡟┒ࡾ㎸ࡲࢀࡓࠕ㛗㊥㞳࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࠖࡢゎ㔘ࢆࡵࡄࡗ࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡀ෌
ࡧసືࡋጞࡵࡓࡇ࡜ࡣࠊࡍ࡛࡟ࡳࡓ㏻ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ᮎ࡟໭ᮅ㩭ࡀබ⾲ࡋࡓࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࡢ඲㠃ⓗぢ┤ࡋࠖࡢලయⓗෆᐜࡣᮍࡔ࡟᫂ࡽ࠿࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡋ࠿ࡋࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣࡑࢀ௨㝆ࠊ௨๓⡿ᅜ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚⮬ࡽࡀ୺ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠕྠ᫬⾜ືཎ๎ࠖ࡟㛵ᚰࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ኻ࠸ࡘࡘ࠶ࡿࠋ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ 2010 ᖺࡢࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟࡛ࠖ♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟ࠊᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢྍ⬟ᛶࢆ♧ࡍࡇ࡜࡛⡿ᅜ࡜ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖ̿̿ᖹ࿴༠ᐃࡢ⥾⤖̿̿ࢆᅗࡿࡇ࡜ࡢ㝈⏺ࡶ▱ࡿ࡟⮳ࡗࡓࡢ࠿ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓ 2010 ᖺ 4 ᭶ࡢእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓ࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡜᰾࡛ࠖࡣࠊ⡿ᮅ㛫ࡢࠕಙ㢗㔊ᡂࠖࡀᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲௳࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ౫↛࡜ࡋ࡚⡿ᮅᖹ࿴༠ᐃࢆᚲせ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊࡑࢀࢆᮅ㩭༙ᓥࠕ㠀᰾໬ࠖࡢ᮲௳࡜ࡣ఩⨨࡙ࡅ࡚ࡣ࠸࡞࠸ࠋࡴࡋࢁࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣᑐ⡿㺀᰾ᢚṆຊ㺁ࡢᙉ໬ࢆඃඛࡋࠊᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆᏑࡋࡓୖ࡛⡿ᅜ࡟ᖹ࿴༠ᐃࢆồࡵࡼ࠺࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡟ࡳ

࠼ࡿࠋ2012 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡢࠕ㖟Ἑ 3ࠖࡢⓎᑕᡂຌࡣࠊ໭ᮅ㩭࡟࡜ࡗ࡚ࡑࡢᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࢆ኱ࡁࡃᙉ໬ࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡋ࠿ࡶࠊ2013 ᖺ 2 ᭶ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ➨ 3 ᅇ᰾ᐇ㦂ࢆᙉ⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ໭ᮅ㩭ࡢᑐ⡿ࠕ᰾ᢚṆຊࠖࡀᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ⾜࠺ㄏᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚స⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ᝿㉳ࡍࡿ࡜ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᑐ༡㌷஦ᨷໃࢆ⾜࠺᮲௳ࡣᩚ࠸ࡘࡘ࠶ࡿ࡜࠸ࢃ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ－ 37 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開̿ ὀ ̿1ࡇࡢゎ㔘࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ಴⏣⚽ஓࠕ6 ⪅఍ㄯ࡜㡑༙ᓥᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ၥ㢟ࡢᒎᮃ̿̿ ࠗᏳ඲ࡢಖド࠘ࡢᒁᆅ࣭ᆅᇦⓗḟඖࠖࠗ໭㡑Ꮫ◊✲࠘㸦๰หྕࠊᮾᅜ኱Ꮫᰯ໭㡑Ꮫ◊✲ᡤࠊ2005 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࠊ㡑ᅜᩥ㸧ࢆཧ↷2಴⏣⚽ஓࠕࠗ2࣭13 ྜព࠘௨㝆ࡢᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ၥ㢟̿̿໭ᮅ㩭ࡢㄆ㆑࡟࠾ࡅࡿᙜ஦⪅ㄽ࡜ᡭ⥆ㄽࠖࠗ໭ᮅ㩭యไ࡬ࡢከᒙⓗ࢔ࣉ࣮ࣟࢳ̿̿ᨻ἞࣭⤒῭࣭እ஺࣭♫఍࠘㸦᪥ᮏᅜ㝿ၥ㢟◊✲ᡤࠊ
2011 ᖺ 3 ᭶ 31 ᪥㸧ࠊ42~43 㡫ࢆཧ↷ࡉࢀࡓ࠸ࠋ࡞࠾ࠊ௨ୗࠊ
ࠕ1࣭11 ᖹ࿴ᥦ㆟ࠖ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬ኌ᫂ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2010 ᖺ 1 ᭶ 12 ᪥࡟ࡼࡿࠋ3ࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡜᰾̿̿ᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2010 ᖺ 4 ᭶ 22 ᪥ࠋ4“Remarks to the Press at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ambassador Glyn Davies. SpecialRepresentative for North Korea Policy, Lim Sung Nam, Special Representative for Korean Peninsula
Peace and Security Affairs, Seoul, South Korea, December 8, 2011”<http://www.state,gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2011/12/178465.htm>.
5“Remarks upon Arrival in Beijing, Remarks, Glyn Davies, Special Representative for North Korea
Policy, Westins Chaoyang Hotel, Beijing, China, February 22, 2012”<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/184924.htm>; see also, “Background Briefing on the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Special Briefing, Senior Administration Office, Office of theSpokesman, Washington DC, February 29, 2012”<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/184924.htm>.
6ࠕᮅ⡿఍ㄯ㐍⾜ᮇ㛫࡟ࡣ࣑ࢧ࢖ࣝⓎᑕࢆ⾜ࢃ࡞࠸࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠊᮅ㩭እົ┬௦ᘚேࠊ1999 ᖺ 9 ᭶
24 ᪥ࠖ<http://www.kcna.co.jp/munkon/m-1999-09-24.htm> ࠋ࡞࠾ࠊ⌧ᅾ㜀ぴྍ⬟࡞⡿ᅜഃࡢⓎ⾲ᩥ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊ“North Korea Missile Chronology: Last Update: January 2012”<http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/ north_korea_missile_2.pdf?_=1327534760> ࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊࡇࡢᩥ⊩ࡀᘬドࡋࡓ “Fact Sheet: Easing Sanctions against North Korea, White House Office of the Press
Secretary, 17 September 1999” <http://www.pub.whitehouse> ࡣࠊ⌧ᅾ㜀ぴ୙⬟࡛࠶ࡿࠋ7௨ୗࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᮅ㩭ᩥ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊࠕᮅ㩭እົ┬ ᮅ⡿఍ㄯ࡟㛵ࡍࡿྜព஦㡯ゝཬࠖ<http://www.kcna.co.jp/calendar/2012/02/02-29/2012-0229-039.htm> ࡟ࡼࡿࠋ࡞࠾ࠊ⟶ぢࡢ㝈ࡾࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࡣࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘ࠊࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘࡟ࡣᥖ㍕ࡉࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋ
8“Remarks to the Media with Asia Bureau Director General Shinsuke Sugiyama, Glyn Davies, Special
Representative for North Korea Policy, Asia Bureau Director General Shinsuke Sugiyama, Ministry ofForeign Affairs, Tokyo, Japan, February 26, 2012”<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/184661.htm>.
9௨ୗࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ⱥᩥ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊ“U.S.-DPRK Bilateral Discussion, Press Statement,Victoria Nuland, Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesman Washington, DC, February 29,2012”<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02184869.htm> ࡟ࡼࡿࠋ10“State Department Daily Press Briefing, March 1, 2012, On-Camera Daily Press Briefing Index,Thursday, March 1, 2012, 12:49 p.m. EST, Briefer: Victoria Nuland, Spokesperson”
<http://translations.state.gov/st/english/texttrans/2012/03/20120301174820…>.
࡞࠾ࠊࢡࣜࣥࢺࣥ㸦Hillary R. Clinton㸧ᅜົ㛗ᐁࡶࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀࠕ㛨᪥ྜព࡛ࠖࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࣉࣝࢺࢽ࣒࢘ᢳฟ࡟㛵ࡍࡿάື೵Ṇ࡟ࡶྠពࡋࡓࡇ࡜ࢆᙉㄪࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ
See, “Budget Hearing for the Department of State and USAID, Testimony, Hillary Rodham Clinton,
Secretary of State, Statement Before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, ForeignOperations, and Related Programs, Washington, DC, February 29 2012”<http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/02/184885.htm>; see also, Cheon Seongwhun, “The Riseand Demise of North Korean Nuclear Agreements and the 2012 Leap Day Deal,” IFANS Review,Vol.20, No.1㸦June 2012㸧㸪p. 15.
11ࠗ➨ 303 ᅇᅧ᭳㸦ᐃᮇ᭳㸧ᮏ᭳㆟఍㆟㘓 ➨ 9 ⹰࠘ࢯ࢘ࣝࠊᅧ᭳஦ົ⹦ࠊ2011 ᖺ 10 ᭶ 19 ᪥ࠊ36 㡫ࠋ
12“Remarks to the Press at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Remarks, Kurt Campbell,Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Seoul, South Korea, February 1,2012”<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/179706.htm>.
13“Remarks to the Press at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Remarks, Glyn Davies, Special－ 38 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開

Representative for North Korea Policy, South Korea Special Representative Lim Sung Nam, Seoul,
South Korea, February 25, 2012” <http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/02/184924.htm>.
14ࠕᮤ᫂༤㏫ᩛᩋᚐࡣࢃࢀࢃࢀࡢᑐヰ┦ᡭ࡟࡞ࢀࡿ࠿⮬┬ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸̿̿ᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁබ㛤㉁ၥ≧ࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 2 ᭶ 3 ᪥ࠋᮤᐜᾈእົ┬๪┦ࡣࠊྠᖺ 3 ᭶ 7 ᪥࠿ࡽ 9 ᪥࡟࠿ࡅࠊࢩ࣮ࣛ࢟ࣗࢬ኱Ꮫ࣐ࢵࢡࢫ࢙࢘ࣝ⾜ᨻ኱Ꮫ㝔࠾ࡼࡧࣇ࣮ࣜࢻࣜࣄ࣭࢚ࣂ࣮ࢺ㈈ᅋ㸦Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung㸧ඹദࡢࢭ࣑ࢼ࣮࡟ཧຍࡋࡓࠋࡑࡇ࡟ཧຍࡋࡓᩥṇோᘏୡ኱Ꮫᰯᩍᤵ࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊᮤᐜᾈࡣࠕ㛨᪥ྜព࡛ࠖ໭ᮅ㩭ࡣ⡿ᅜ࠿ࡽࠕᏳ඲ࡢಖドࠖࢆᚲせ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊ㡑ᅜࡀࠕኳᏳࠖỿἐᚋ࡜ࡗࡓࠕ5࣭24 ᥐ⨨ࠖࢆ᧔ᅇࡋ࡞࠸㝈ࡾࠊព࿡ࡢ࠶ࡿ༡໭ᑐヰࡣ࠶ࡾ࠼࡞࠸࡜㏙࡭ࡓ࡜࠸࠺ࠋSee, Chung-in Moon, “Opportunities andObstacles: Revelation from Dialogue with North Korea,” Global Asia, Vol.7, No.1㸦Spring 2012㸧㸪p.
87.
15ࠕᮅ㩭Ᏹᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேㄯヰࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 3 ᭶ 17 ᪥ࠋ௨ୗࠊࡇࡢㄯヰ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࡇࡢᩥ⊩࡟ࡼࡿࠋ16
GOV/INF/2012/9, Attachment.
17ࣜࣅ࢔㸦Evans J. R. Revere㸧ඖᅜົḟᐁ⿵௦⌮࡟ࡼࢀࡤࠊ2011 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࠊࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡ࡛ࡢ⡿ᮅ༠㆟ࡢ㝿ࠊ໭ᮅ㩭ഃࡣࠕᅜ࡜ࡋ࡚Ᏹᐂࡢᖹ࿴฼⏝ࡸேᕤ⾨ᫍᡴࡕୖࡆࡢᶒ฼ࡀ࠶ࡿࠖ࡜୺ᙇࡋࡓ࡜࠸࠺ࠋࡇࢀ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ
ࠗᮅ᪥᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 4 ᭶ 6 ᪥ࠋ࡞࠾ࠊࠕ㛨᪥ྜពࠖࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ಴⏣⚽ஓࠕ㔠ṇᜠᨻᶒࡢᑐ⡿ᨻ⟇̿̿஧ᖺ๓ࡢᣦ㔪࡜ࠗ㛨᪥ྜព࠘ࠖ㸺ᖹᡂ24 ᖺᗘ◊✲ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺࠕ2012 ᖺࡢ໭ᮅ㩭ࠖศᯒ࣏࣮ࣞࢺ㸼㸺http://www2.jiia.or.jp/RESR/column_page.php?id=219㸼ࢆཧ↷ࡉࢀࡓ࠸ࠋ
18
S/PRST/2012/13.
19ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬ኌ᫂ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 4 ᭶ 18 ᪥ࠋSee also, S/2012/239.
20ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬௦ᘚேㄯヰࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 6 ᭶ 25 ᪥ࠋ21ㄽホဨࠕᮅ㩭༙ᓥ࡛⥭ᙇࢆ⃭໬ࡋࡼ࠺࡜ࡍࡿᣮⓎ⪅ࡣᯝࡓࡋ࡚ㄡ࠿̿̿⡿ᅜ࡜ഈൿ୍࿡ࡀ㦁ࡄࠗ໭ᣮⓎㄽ࠘ࡢṇయࢆゎ๗ࡍࡿࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 6 ᭶ 29 ᪥ࠋ௨ୗࠊࡇࡢㄽホ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊࡇࡢᩥ⊩࡟ࡼࡿࠋ22ࠕ10࣭4 ᐉゝࠖ࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊࠕ໭༡㛵ಀⓎᒎ࡜Ẹ᪘⦾ᰤࡢࡓࡵࡢᐉゝࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2007 ᖺ10 ᭶ 5 ᪥࡟ࡼࡿࠋ࡞࠾ࠊࡇࡢᐉゝ୰ࡢࠕඹྠ⁺ᧄ༊ᇦࠖࠊࠕᖹ࿴Ỉᇦࠖࡢタᐃ࡟㛵ࡍࡿྜព࡜
ࡑࡢゎ㔘ࠊ࡞ࡽࡧ࡟ࠊࡑࡢྜព࠿ࡽ㞳཯ࡍࡿᮤ᫂༤ࢆ໭ᮅ㩭ࡀᢈุࡍࡿ㐣⛬ࡣࠊ๓ᥖ಴⏣⚽ஓࠕࠗ2࣭13 ྜព࠘ᚋࡢᖹ࿴యไᶞ❧ၥ㢟ࠖࠊ28㹼32 㡫ࢆཧ↷ࡉࢀࡓ࠸ࠋ23ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬௦ᘚேㄯヰࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 26 ᪥ࠋ24See, Josh Rogin, “Exclusive: North Korea Threaten to Reconsider 2005 Agreement with U.S.,
Thursday,August 16, 2012 - 2:03 PM ”
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/16/north_korea_threatens_to_reconsider_2005_agreement_with_us>.
25ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬௦ᘚேኌ᫂ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 21 ᪥ࠋ௨ୗࠊࡇࡢኌ᫂࠿ࡽࡢᘬ⏝ࡣࠊࡇࡢᩥ⊩࡟ࡼࡿࠋ26ࢼ࣒࣭ࢳࣙࣥ࢘ࣥࠕ᪂ࡋ࠸ᖹ࿴ಖ㞀య⣔ᶞ❧ࡀᛴඛົ࡛࠶ࡿࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 27
᪥ࠋ27࣭ࣜࣄࣙࣥࢻࠕᖹ࿴ಖ㞀య⣔ࢆᶞ❧ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 29 ᪥ࠋ28ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍௦ᘚேኌ᫂ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 7 ᭶ 31 ᪥ࠋ29ࠕ㔠ṇᜠ➨ 1 ᭩グࡀす༡ᡓ⥺᭱༡➃ࡢᓥ㜵ᚚ㝲どᐹ㸦ᮅ㩭୰ኸ㏻ಙ 8.17㸧ࠖࠗᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜ᭶㛫ㄽㄪ࠘2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ࠊ2 㡫ࠋ
30ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬௦ᘚேㄯヰࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 21 ᪥ࠋᚋ࡟ࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘ࡣㄽホ࡛ࠊࠕ⡿ᅜࡣࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ㸦໭ᮅ㩭ࡢ㸧ᖹ࿴ᥦ᱌ࢆᣄྰࡋࡓࠖ㸦ᣓᘼෆࡣᘬ⏝⪅㸧࡜᩿ࢃࡗࡓୖ࡛ࠊࠕ⡿ᅜࡀᑐᮅ㩭ᩛどᨻ⟇ࢆᨺᲠࡋ࡞࠸࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀ࡟ᑐฎࡍࡿࢃࢀࢃࢀࡢ᰾ᢚṆຊࡣ᝿ീ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸࡯࡝࡟⌧௦໬ࡉࢀࠊᙉ໬ࡉࢀࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖ࡜㏙࡭࡚࠸ࡓ㸦࣭ࣜࣄࣙࣥࢻࠕࢃࢀ
ࢃࢀࡢ᰾ၥ㢟෌᳨ウࡣㄡࡶࡑࡢ᫝㠀ࢆㄽࡎࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 10 ᭶ 2 ᪥ࠖ㸧ࠋ31ࠕࢃࡀ㌷㝲ࡣ⤫୍኱ᡓࡢᶵ఍ࢆ⤯ᑐ࡟㏨ࡉ࡞࠸࡛࠶ࢁ࠺̿̿ᮅ㩭ேẸ㌷ᯈ㛛ᗑ௦⾲㒊ኌ᫂ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 22 ᪥ࠋ࠾ࡼࡧࠊ࣭ࣜࢠࣙࣥࢳࣙࣝࠕ༶᫬↓ឿᝒ࡞཯ᡴᧁࢆຍ࠼ࡿ－ 39 －

第2章

金正恩政権と軍事停戦体制――「閏日合意」と対南関係の展開࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 21 ᪥ࡶཧ↷ࠋࡉࡽ࡟ྠᖺ 8 ᭶ 25 ᪥ࠊ㔠ṇᜠࡣ඲㌷࡟ᑐࡋࠕ┤ࡕ࡟Ṿ⁛ⓗ࡞཯ᧁࢆຍ࠼ࠊ඲㌷ࡀ㏾ࡋࡃ❧ࡕୖࡀࡗ࡚♽ᅜ⤫୍ࡢ኱ᴗࢆᡂᑵࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟඲㠃཯ᧁᡓ࡟⛣⾜ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟㛵ࡍࡿ࿨௧ࢆୗ㐩ࡋࠊࡑࡢࡓࡵࡢసᡓィ⏬ࢆ᳨ウࡋ࡚᭱⤊⨫ྡࡋࡓࠖ࡜࠸࠺㸦ࠕ8࣭25 ៞⚃ᐗ఍࡛⾜ࢃࢀࡓᮅ㩭ேẸ㌷᭱㧗ྖ௧ᐁ㔠ṇᜠྠඖᖊᵝࡢ₇ㄝࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 26 ᪥㸧ࠋ33ࠕ⡿ᅜࡢᑐᮅ㩭ᩛᑐどᨻ⟇ࡣᮅ㩭༙ᓥ᰾ၥ㢟ࡢᇶᮏ㞀ᐖ̿̿ᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬ഛᛀ㘓ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 9 ᭶ 1 ᪥ࠋ34
ࠕ୙ἲ↓ἲࡢࠗ໭᪉㝈⏺⥺࠘ᅛᏲ࡟ࡋࡀࡳࡘࡃ࡯࡝ࠊࡑࢀࡀࡶࡓࡽࡍࡢࡣᒈ࡜Ṛࡢࡳ࡛࠶ࡿ
̿̿ᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁ௦ᘚேグ⪅ࡢ㉁ၥ࡟ᅇ⟅ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012ᖺ 9 ᭶ 30 ᪥ࠋ35ࠕᮅ㩭すᾏ࡛ࡣࢃࢀࢃࢀࡀタᐃࡋࡓᾏୖ㌷஦ቃ⏺⥺ࡔࡅࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺̿̿ᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜᅜ㜵ጤဨ఍ᨻ⟇ᒁ௦ᘚேグ⪅ࡢ㉁ၥ࡟ᅇ⟅ࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 10
᭶ 21 ᪥ࠋ36ࠕᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜእົ┬㌷⦰࠾ࡼࡧᖹ࿴◊✲ᡤ௦ᘚேㄯヰࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012 ᖺ 10
᭶ 21 ᪥ࠋ37ࡇࢀࢆ♧ࡍࡼࡾ┤ᡖ࡞౛࡜ࡋ࡚ࠊ㌷஦ホㄽဨࠕᩋᡓࢆࠗᡓ຾࠘࡟ࡍࡾ᭰࠼ࡿወ᛹࡞Ⲕ␒๻̿̿ഈൿࡽࡢࠗᘏᆤᓥ◙ᧁ 2 ࿘ᖺグᛕ⾜஦࠘㦁ࡂࢆホࡍࡿࠖࠗປാ᪂⪺࠘2012 ᖺ 11 ᭶ 23 ᪥ࢆཧ↷ࠋ38ࠕᮅ㩭Ᏹᐂ✵㛫ᢏ⾡ጤࠊ12 ᭶ 10 ᪥࠿ࡽ 22 ᪥ࡢ㛫࡟ேᕤᆅ⌫⾨ᫍⓎᑕࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࠖ
<http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-k.htm>ࠋ
39ࠕᮅ㩭୰ኸ㏻ಙ♫ሗ㐨̿̿ேᕤ⾨ᫍࠗග᫂ᫍ-3࠘ྕ 2 ྕᶵࢆᡂຌ⿬࡟ⓎᑕࠖࠗẸ୺ᮅ㩭࠘2012ᖺ 12 ᭶ 13 ᪥ࠋ࠾ࡼࡧࠊࠕ⾨ᫍ㌶㐨ࢆ☜ㄆ̿̿⾨ᫍ⟶ไ┦஫ᣦ᥹ᡤᐊ㛗 12㸬12ࠖࠗᮅ㩭Ẹ୺୺⩏ேẸඹ࿴ᅜ᭶㛫ㄽㄪ࠘2012 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࠊ3 㡫࡞࡝ࢆཧ↷ࠋ
32－ 40 －