「オープンデータ」が先導する新たな社会「オープンデータとセキュリティ」SS研合同分科会
2015.10.29@神戸岩田修一

869

Jōgan Sanriku Earthquake (Sugawara no Michizane et.al.)

1755

Lisbon earthquake>>Kant, Adam Smith, Voltaire, Rousseau (Enlightenment Thought)
1498

1945

Hiroshima and Nagasaki

1986

Chernobyl

2001

9.11 New York2011

3.11 The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
Fukushima Daiichi Accidents and ....
画像はWikiから2

アジェンダ「カンバン」や「ゲンバ」が世界的に着目されたのは四半世紀以上も昔のことである。近年は、Open Access、Cloud、Open Data、Big Data、OpenScience、Industry 4.0、IoT/IoE等々、キャッチコピーの輸入超過が続く。安全・安心を誇った我国も天災・人災だけでなくサイバー・セキュリティへの備えにも課題が指摘される。もっと前向きの挑戦が提案できないのだろうか？
15

http://www.agr.hokudai.ac.jp/cbg/nursery/web-off/asagao/asagao.htm

青渦鍬形葉藤紫黄縮緬葉藤色台咲青渦柳葉江戸紫采咲
青水晶斑入渦巻葉渋藤氏覆輪丸咲青蝉葉桃色無地咲大輪（淀の桃風）
青斑入蝉葉柿茶縞筒白丸咲大輪
青斑入並葉紫捻梅咲青渦蝙蝠南天葉淡青地藤紫吹雪筒八重咲
青桔梗渦葉水色桔梗咲八重

http://www.agr.hokudai.ac.jp/cbg/nursery/web-off/asagao/asagao.htm

The voyage of discovery
is not in seeking newlandscape, but in having
new eyes.（M.Proust）
7

PROPOSALS• DEVELOPMENT OF PROACTIVE AND POSITIVE DIGITAL STORY TELLERSBASED ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY(human capital with capacity building+produced capital described by knowledge network connected dynamically withreal/cyber space objects(data/information/knowledge/wisdom)+natural capitalwith monitoring/evaluation technologies +high performance simulators withqualitative/quantitative/adaptive intelligent reasoning+….) reflecting allimportant lessons from Industry 1.0-4.0, SHINKANSEN, “FUKUSHIMA”, PRIUS,TESLA, i-PHONE, B-787 and so on.

• ………….

データと＊＊＊合理性• 政治的合理性• 文化的合理性• 文明的合理性• 経済的合理性• 技術的合理性• 科学的合理性

科学的合理性https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tycho̲Brahe#/media/File:Porträtt̲av̲Tycho̲Brahe̲-̲Skoklosters̲slott̲-̲90153.tif

http://www.pafko.com/tycho/observe.html

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14229-roundest-objects-in-the-world-created/

http://www.nist.gov/pml/si-redef/kg_present.cfm

微細構造定数：fine-structure constant
α=1/137.035999139(31)e : elementary charge
h : Planck constant: permittivity of vacuum: magnetic constant

CODATA

重力電磁力
弱い力
強い力

WHY:abduction
on what is rightHOW(bridging differences
between different safety standards)

WHAT(verification within a safety standard)

Hierarchical features on design windows17

文明的合理性• 言語（孤高と共生）• 政治（利己と利他）• 産業・経済（大量生産、大量消費、大量廃棄• 石油エネルギー文明（温室効果ガス）• 核エネルギー文明（放射性廃棄物）

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/achievments/scientiﬁcachievementsandpolicyimpact/Sustainable.en.html

v Why oil is so valuable by Robert Bériault
Canadians use an enormous
amount of energy.

March 11, 2011(Fri)14:46 – Earthquake,
TsunamiPresentation made by Tatsujiro Suzuki (The 3/11 Fukushima Nuclear Accident: What Happened and Lessons
learned (so far)) May 2-4, 2011

➢ Occurred 14:46 March 11, 2011
➢ Magnitude : 9.0 Mw➢ Epicenter location : 38°6’’N and142°51’’E, and 24km in depth➢ Victims : 15,202 Dead
8,718 Missing(as of May 25, 2011)

WNFM 38th AM-2011(Seville)21

Many Things Happened!

http://www.tepco.co.jp/index-j.html

http://www.tepco.co.jp/index-j.html

http://www.tepco.co.jp/index-j.html

THE FIRST BIG ACCIDENT IN “BIG DATA” ERA
AT THE BIGGEST SCALE IN THE HISTORYCAN WE OVERCOME WITH RESILIENCE BY DATA?

http://www.tepco.co.jp/index-j.html

事後対策の巧拙

野村茂雄氏、斎藤公明氏提供
26

私たちは、50年後に、どのような答えを出しているのだろうか？

技術として地域として日本として世界の中で地球エンジニアリング

政治的合理性• 覇権• 格差• セキュリティー• 持続可能性• 標準化• 面子

By Michael Zgurovsky

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galleria_degli_Uffizi

権力、覇権、ルール、国際基準、安全基準・・・

EneEnvEcEntEthE...
Price movements of WTI (NYMEX)($/bbl)Unexpected
Decrease of

Rrecovery of Mexican Gulf
production, increase of US

75

crude oil inventory,
concern over slow down ofChinese economy70
Nigeria Strike, longer
halt Mexican Gulf oil

Resurfac
e of USproduction

6560

55

50

Expansion of
Iraq struggle(Sadr)
growingconcerns
over Yukos
oilproduction
Decrease of
US oilinventory

132 OPEC
Conf.( + 1million b/d)

Oct.
22 & 26
55.17

concerns
worries

Winterfor
Iraq,

Suppl
y

Nigeria
Yukos

concerns intheUSinsurgency
and terrorist
threat.
ColderConcerns
for Nigerian

weather inUS

RebelsDecrease of

133 OPEC Conf. (-1 million b/d ofU.S. oil stockoverproduction)easing concern
for Katirna, IEA'sJan 20roll over),Inverntory

anouncement& 30

increase

68.35

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gasoline

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forecast

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Worries fortropicalstorm, drawof crude oil,future supply
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weather

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andadditional+0.5

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million b/dby price)

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issue

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worries inUS,

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decreaseinventory,
effects of
Katrina135
OPEC

fluctuations

worries
Refinery snag57.27

demandestimate

Rita

gas

Iraq

Iraq

Dec.1069.81

news onSaudi King

Apr. 1

revision
offor
Hurricanewithdraw
fromNaja fforecasts
by IEA.
EIA/DOE
warningfor OPEC
future cut

Aug 30furure supply
concern,

IEA's
upward40.71

June 29

MexicanGulf &Concerns

Sadrs' strong
buying75.17

140 OPEC
Conf. (ceiling

US crudeinventory,

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Gulf &Yukos

35.66

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Nigeria,

48.70

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conference

Speculator

revision ofdemandela,
NorthAugust 19

4030forVenezuwintersupply4535

SupplyConcern

UpwardChina'scurrency
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Funds
money

supplyconcerns forgasoline andOPEC's pricestance, Russia,
Iran, Iraq,
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Eastworries fortropical storm

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Nigeria

terrositattack at
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increase

2004
20 /0504 /21
20 /0604 /0420 /0604 /1
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04 /0220 /0704 /1620 /0704 /3020 /08
04 /13/020 8
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020 /0306 /24/20 0406 /07/04/21on price)

How long can we use oils?
33

No nuclear weapon!

Shale Gas

1885 December∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢¢

1998 July核と人間
Global Reduc7on of Natural Energy Resources

• 物理
•!
2007

技術oil• 経済
• 社会
•

人間!!

!!!

?!

2050

gas

2092

uranium+–↑ Consumption

Production ↓years
Hermann Scheer – Energy is a driving force for our civilisa7on – SOLAR ADVOCATE, 20052013年4月9日火曜日

1

視点の転換• BCP(Business ContinuityPlan)• CCP(CommunityContinuity Plan)• 縮小社会• 固有の文化• 「ご縁」の社会• 「もったいない」• Centric• 「おかげさま」• Sustainable Development• 「まるい」• Planet under Stress• 「やわらかい」•技術課題• リアルタイムモニタリング• 設計手法• データマイニング• 知識発見• シミュレーション• データ駆動• 人間中心新たな挑戦課題
•･ 空気

•･ 気配

•･ 間合

•･ 阿吽

•･ ・・・

文化的合理性• TQC• モノづくり• 職人• バランス• 大局観

マルチレンマ問題ー文明的合理性
医療・トリアージ
原発・資源
航空機事故
食品安全・飢餓
気候変動・格差
内戦・ストレス・・・

倫理・命「よくいきる」
バランス・バイアス
事前評価・選択・事後の潔さ
希望・夢「ワクワクする」
コミュニティー
最適解
デザイン
物語

http://www.jaea.go.jp/04/turuga/monju_site/pdf/topic1.pdf
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde_(avion)
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde_(avion)#/media/File:Concorde_1_94-9-5_kix_(cropped).jpg

Dynamics of ~7B Intelligent Agents•Your Life, Uploaded: The
Digital Way to Better
Memory, Health, andProductivity by Gordon Bellhttp://pflow.csis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/?page_id=943

さて技術的合理性

http://fde.uwaterloo.ca/Fde/Materials/ShortFiberComposites/Srim/srimSmax-Nf.png
http://xml.coverpages.org/MatMLv30-NISTIR6939-200301.pdf

技術
予測と安全
失敗と進歩

Forward/Inverse
Problems

We need to hook well-organized data andknowledges(common senses) on materials tocreate a solution space properly.

• Nature defines Cornerstones providing a marvelous rich but still
very rigid systematic framework of restraint conditions• The realization of the Fourth and Fifth Paradigm requires two preconditions being beforehand establishedRegularity in Binaries

MN(A) vs. MN(B)Map for 1:1
Compounds (RT)

MN(A)

1

CN 1-3CN 4
CN 6 (-11)
CN 12 (-13)
CN 14(-18)
Non-former
Former (no 1:1)

100

MN(B)

AETs of Compounds
100

TQC of Data
• By logics for each fact
• By coherence of the collected facts andlogics• By balancing combined uncertaintiescomparative studies of complexities• By holistic guess• By adapting models and parameters

Diﬀerent Data Strategies• GE• Phillips• Mercedes• CAS• Elsevier/Springer• Nature• Google• Boeing• Siemens• Komatsu• NIH• IMS Health• CrossRef

Metallurgy—Materials
DesignMichael Faraday
Arthur R. von Hippel.
.
Computational Science
Data Science
Design ScienceThe Past One Hundred Years

COPY FOR EVOLUTIONS•

Needs to return to the initial starting
point at least to the birth of the earth•materials-multicomponents,
nonequilibrium, nonlinear complex
and chaotic systems•Inverse and abductive challenges are
expected so as to accelerate recovery
and/or emergence processes•

as an exemplar for bigger
challenges, namely, "sustainabilityof our global communities"

分かっているのに何故？

参加する！

How to balance
Needs, Wants, Demands, Products of People•

Citizens•

Designer•

Planner•

Rule Maker•

Rule Taker•

Follower•

Supporters•

Opponents•……

Six Thinking Hats by de Bono

社会的合理性• 関係性•絆•結• ”安心”• 個のケアとコミュニティー、種の保存After K.Hoashi

After K.Hoashi

Transformation• BCP(Business Continuity Plan)• CCP(Community ContinuityPlan)• 縮小社会• 固有の文化• 「ご縁」の社会• Centric• 「もったいない」• Sustainable Development• 「おかげさま」• Planet under Stress• 「まるい」• 「やわらかい」•

Human dimensions are to becarefully investigated.

設計解の探し方
重さ、時間、空間＋価値

人文学（Humanities）

科学／技術

こころ
76

経済的合理性• 需要 vs 供給• 規模の経済• 市場原理• マーケッティング• ゲームのルールと意思決定http://www.boeing.jp/ヒシネス部門-紹介/ホーインク民間航空機部門/787型機の概要.page

Hiroshi Harada et al.

http://www.matml.org

「航空サービス」という業界の持続・発展のための方策• 安全規制• 相互保証• ブランド• TQC（ハード、ソフト、ヒューマンウェア）• CALS/STEP--100%, 200%,... , 400%digital• Total Life Cycle-- From Design to Maintenance,
http://www.ipa.go.jp/files/000036469.pdf

Waste Management• Mental Health海洋石油・ガス生産設備

固定式

Semi-subSpar

TLP

FPSO

~300m

~2,000m80

FPSO/FSO
プロセス（生産）システム：
生産井からの原油に含まれる水や不純物を分離して、石油･ガスを生産する

ガス
焼却塔

居住区・
ヘリポート

輸送
タンカーへ

係留システム：波・風・潮流から受ける力に対して、FPSOの位置を保持する貯油タンク

貯蔵設備：
生産した石油を貯蔵する積出設備：
生産した石油を輸送タ
ンカーへ積み出す

係留索

係留索
ライザー
（出井油・ガス導入ライン）
石油・ガスの流れ

アンカー

アンカー

81

2009年6月

プロジェクトロケーション
FSO Vietsovpetro01

FSO Rong Doi
MV12

FSO RangDong MV17

FPSO Cuulong
MV9

FSO Nanhai
Sheng KaiFPSO Nanhai
Sheng LiFPSO KakapNatuna

FPSO AnoaNatuna

Marco Polo TLP
Prince TLP

Shenzi TLPFPSOSong Doc
Pride MV19

FPSO Jasmine
Venture MV7

FSO Ta’Kuntah

FSO
Pathumabaha

FSO Cidade deMacae MV15FPSO MV 8
LangsaVentureFPSO Cidade deNiteroi
MV18
FPSO
Cidade do
Rio de Janeiro
MV14

FPSO
Baobab
Ivoirien
MV10FPSO
Fluminense

Tullow Jubilee
FPSO

Escravos LPG
FSOFPSO Cidade deSantos MV20

FSO Kome Kribi1BP Angola
PSVM FPSO	 ：	 現在建造中Oveng TLP &FSO Madiela
Okume/Ebano TLP Tchatamba A
MOPUFPSO Cidade deAngra dos Reis
MV22

BHP Pyrenees
FPSO

FPSO Stybarrow
Venture MV16FPSO MODECVenture 11

FPSO MODEC
Venture 1

FPSO
Whakaaropai

FPSO BuffaloVenture

グレー文字	 ：	 生産終了 / 他フィールドへ移転

83

ビジネス展開の巧拙• ジーメンス• GE• トヨタ• ボーイング• キャノン• Google• Apple• SONY• Panasonic• 日本製鋼所• AREVA
• 東芝
• 日立
• 三菱
• Phylipps• Komatsu

M=(Mi+SWOT+STP+4P)

i+s+aby Akihito Takamoto
M = Marketing( = PROJECT Management)
Mi = Mission, Objectives, Goals
SWOT = Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
4P = Product, Promotion, Price, Place
STP = (Market)Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioningi : information(neuron), s : strategy(brain), action(muscle)

LEARNING• Learning 1.0 Single Loop Learning• Learning 2.0 Double Loop Learning• Learning 3.0 Triple Loop Learning• Learning 4.0UnlearningV I S U A L I Z AT I O N• Visualization 1.0 Direct Mapping of Digital Data
• Visualization 2.0 Mapping of Processed Data
• Visualization 3.0 Mapping of Integrated Data
• Visualization 4.0 Mapping with Fusion of Real Spaceand Virtual SpaceCOMMUNITY DESIGN• Community Design 1.0

Spontaneous Bottom-up Formation• Community Design 2.0

Top-down Design as Edo and Paris driven
by Power• Community Design 3.0 Design-driven Community on

Produced Capital• Community Design 4.0 Inclusive Design with respect to Natural

Capital, Produced Capital and Human CapitalH E A LT H C A R E• Health Care 1.0 Experience-based Natural Care/Cure• Health Care 2.0 “Witches” Medicine• Health Care 3.0 Evidence-based Medicine/Data-driven Medicine• Health Care 4.0 Holistic Medicine(Medical Science,+Ayurveda, +Kampo, +Unani,+preventive medicine)INDUSTRY• Industry 1.0 Industrial Revolution as Emergence ofmaterials, machines, markets, capitals, energy sources,
labour and so on• Industry 2.0 Mass Production Paradigm, standards and marketing• Industry 3.0 Introduction of ICT• Industry 4.0 Evolutional, Adaptive and Strategic Approaches

for Whole Life Cycle of Products

NUCLEAR SCIENCE & ENGINEERING• NSE 1.0

from Science(E=mc**2) to Engineering(nuclear devices)• NSE 2.0

from nuclear devices to values(energy, heat,health by quantum beam, …)• NSE 3.0closing missing links in engineering, inclusive design,
inverse manufacturing, ..

• NSE 4.0

creating nuclear civilization for sustainable, safe andhuman-centered communities

PROPOSALS• DEVELOPMENT OF PROACTIVE AND POSITIVE DIGITAL STORY TELLERSBASED ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY(human capital with capacity building+produced capital described by knowledge network connected dynamically withreal/cyber space objects(data/information/knowledge/wisdom)+natural capitalwith monitoring/evaluation technologies +high performance simulators withqualitative/quantitative/adaptive intelligent reasoning+….) reflecting allimportant lessons from Industry 1.0-4.0, SHINKANSEN, “FUKUSHIMA”, PRIUS,TESLA, i-PHONE, B-787 and so on.

• ………….

Conclusion

Sociology

Agriculture

Mathematics

Medicine

Physics

Economics

Mechanical Engineering

Materials Engineering
Ethics…………
ChemistryI N T E R N AT I O N A L & G L O B A L
REGIONALGEOPOLITICALCOMMUNITY DYNAMICS
MIND SETECONOMYN AT I O N A L
POLITICSPLANT SITE
PLANT
REACTOR
RISK/CRISIS MANAGEMENT・・・・・・・

CORE
M AT E R I A LDOSDECOMMISSIONING & WASTE MANAGEMENTENVIRONMENT & BIODIVERSITYS E A - L A N D - M O U N TA I N

TA R G E T I N G T O C O - C R E AT E “ F U T U R E E A R T H ”
BEAUTIFUL STORIES AND MEANINGIOTMUSEUM OF CYBER AND REAL PRODUCTS
COLLECTION OF “PIECES”

COLLECTION OF TRADE-OFFS
FEASIBILITY STUDIESDESIGN STUDIESD ATA A N D A R T I F A C T S
ARCHIVESLESSONS THROUGH UNLEARNING OF FUKUSHIMA

ア ナ ロ グ 価 値 〜 デ ジ タル 価 値 創 出 へ• Value-added Cycle from data(signals+noises) to values byJ.H.Westbrook(GE, 1980)• From experimental data to design data for fusion reactors by S.I.(UT, 1980s)• Multi-scale modeling with respect to T, E and L by G.L. Kulchinski(UW,1982)• High Tc S.C.M. by C.Hailong and S.I.(UT,1987-1993)• VE by S.I.(UT, 1993-1996)• VEMD by S.I. et al(STA, 1993-1997)• LPF by P.Villars, Y.Chen and S.I.(MPDS, 1995-)

Critical thinking- in being responsive to variable subject matter, issues, and purposes - isincorporated in a family of interwoven modes of thinking, among them:• scientific thinking• mathematical thinking• historical thinking• anthropological thinking• economic thinking• moral thinking• philosophical thinking