Proceedings of the Thirty-second (2022) International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference
Shanghai, China, June 5–10, 2022
Copyright © 2022 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)
ISBN 978-1-880653-81-4; ISSN 1098-6189

www.isope.org

Tsunami risk assessment and zoning of Qidong County, China
Jingming Hou, Zhiguo Xu, Tingting Fan, Wei Lu

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources.
Beijing, China

2011 triggered a huge tsunami, resulting in the death of more than
27000 people in Japan (Wei et al., 2013). The impact of the nuclearaccident caused by the tsunami on the marine environment isimmeasurable. This tsunami event had a certain impact on China'scoastal areas such as Zhejiang and Fujian province. According to therecords and analysis of the ocean observation network, the tsunami
caused maximum tsunami amplitude of 10-60 cm along the coasts ofJiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian provinces. Several scholars have studied thetsunami risk around China (Liu et al., 2007; Hou et al. 2020; Sun et al.,2013; Zhao et al., 2013; Li et al., 2016).
This paper studies the tsunami risk of Qidong County. On thepremise of understanding the natural conditions, coastal projects andeconomic development, we analyzed the risk distribution of tsunami,
through carrying out tsunami numerical calculation and tsunami risk
assessment and prepared disaster inundation map. The analysis results
will provide technical support for local governments' decision-making
on disaster prevention and reduction to ensure the achievements ofmarine economic development and the safety of people's lives andproperty.

ABSTRACTThis paper studied the tsunami risk of Qidong County, China. By
analyzing the historical earthquake and tsunami data, the potential
tsunami sources and parameters that may affect Qidong County aredetermined, including 8 regional tsunami sources and 14 long-distancetsunamis. The numerical calculation of potential tsunami sources werecarried out by using COMCOT model. This model can simulate thewhole process of tsunami wave, including tsunami generation,propagation and inundation. Okada model is used to generate tsunami
wave. According to the calculation results, the tsunami inundation isanalyzed. Tsunami risk is determined according to the relationshipbetween tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk. In this paper, theeffects of wave amplitude and wave current on nearshore are analyzed.
From the analysis results, when a major tsunami occurs, the coast of
Qidong County will be affected by the potential tsunami disaster. Whenthe river gate is open, the tsunami inundation occurs. The tsunami
sources that can cause tsunami disaster on Qidong County mainly comefrom Guam, Ogasawara, the Nankai Trough and Philippine Trench
scenarios. The assessment results can provide scientific reference for
local tsunami disaster prevention and reduction. It is suggested that thegovernment should formulate a special emergency plan for tsunami
disaster, build disaster shelters in the inundated areas and planevacuation routes.
KEY WORDS: Tsunami; hazard; risk; assessment; zoning.

1 ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL TSUNAMI SOURCESINTRODUCTION
Tsunami disaster is one of the most serious marine disasters in theworld. Many coastal countries around the world have suffered tsunami
disaster. After the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, governments andinternational organizations all over the world have promoted tsunami
disaster prevention and reduction research. As an important part,tsunami risk assessment is regarded as the primary task of tsunami
disaster prevention and mitigation (Wang and Liu, 2006; Ioualen et al.,2007).
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the global earthquakes havebeen active, and major tsunami disasters have shown a high incidence(Hou et al., 2020). A magnitude 9.0 Earthquake in eastern Japan inFig. 1 Location of Qidong County
The location of Qidong County is shown in Figure 1. By collecting
historical earthquake and tsunami data, potential tsunami sources areanalyzed. According to historical seismic data and submarine fault

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