Research Trends and Results

Research on airport disaster risk quantitativeevaluation methods
NAKAJIMA Yuki, Research Coordinator for Advanced Airport Technology
Airport Department(Key words) Inventory analysis, loss probability factor, predicted maximum loss (PML)

Figure 2. Cause-Consequence Diagram Overlapping
Damage Phenomena
Earthquake
occurs
地震発生
Tsunamioccurs
津波発生

Non-exceedance probability of loss

Loss occurrence probability by damage
and form of operation

Figure 1. Loss Probability Factor/PML Calculation
Example
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

49.0%

51.0%

0.5
0.4
0.3

Lossprobability
factorCumulative
distributionfunction ofloss ratio

Tsunami submersion

NO津波
浸水

YE S
滑走路2000m
2,000m of runway
usable使用可
ＹＥＳＮＯ

Inoperable
運用不可
Restoration
復旧

Runway liquefaction

滑走路のLiquefaction
ofrunway
液状化NO

滑走路2000m
2,000m of runway
usable
使用可

エプロンのApron liquefy
action
液状化
NO

Inoperable
運用不可
Vibration
damage to control tower
管制塔の振動被害
Minor
Moderate
Destroyed
軽微
半壊
全壊

YES

NO

Perimeter security
fence liquefaction

Inoperable
運用不可
場周柵
Perimeter
security fenceliquefactionの液状化
NO

20 day loss

YES

Inoperable
運用不可

Shaking damage topassenger terminal

ビ旅ル客の タ
震ー
動 ミ
被ナ
害ル

Shaking damage to旅客ターミナルビ
passenger terminal
ルの震動被害NO

20 day loss

YES

20 day loss

Shaking damage
to fuel storage
facility

Inoperable
運用不可

燃の料
震貯動
蔵
被施
害
設

Shaking damage
to airport electric
power plant

20 day loss

Emergency
control tower
非常用管制塔usable
使用可

場
液
周状
柵化のoperation
形態

20 day loss

YES

Usable spot
使用可能スポット
Fixed wing
固定翼
ＮＯ

管
制塔の振動
被害

被害・Damageandform of
運用

ＮＯ

Inoperable
運用不可

エプ
ロンの液状化

空の港
震電動
力
被施
害
設YESＹＥＳApron liquefaction

Causes of damage

滑走路の液状化

被害要因

2. Introduction of inventory analysis
Based on damage caused at the Sendai Airport by
the Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting conditions
were hypothesized, a sample airport and earthquake
etc. were set, a cause-consequence diagram of therestoration and operation process was prepared, andinventory analysis, which is a method used in thesafety engineering field, was performed. For example,
regarding the loss when one sample earthquake
occurred, the occurrence probability (loss probabilityfactor) and the loss 10% threshold value
non-exceedance probability (predicted maximum loss:PML) were calculated by damage and form ofoperation.
It is possible to interpret Figure 2, which
superimposes damage phenomena on Figure 1 and thecause-consequence diagram, as showing that there is a
49% probability of a case where shaking damage to空港へのTsunami
submerges
airport
津波浸水

Shaking damage tocontrol tower

1. Use of capabilities of the private sector tooperate airports
The Law for the Use of Capabilities of the Private
Sector to Operate Government Managed Airports(Law No. 61 of 2013) has been enacted, and the Basic
Guideline to Using Capabilities of the Private SectortoOperate
Government
ManagedAirports(Notification of November 2013) issued under thesame law legally obligates private companies with
operation rights to set disaster phenomena caused byearthquakes and tsunami and the degrees of damage
they cause and to purchase insurance, so research anddevelopment of methods of quantitatively evaluating
disaster risk is an urgent challenge.

Shaking
damage to fuel
燃料貯蔵施設storage facilityの震動被害
NO

YES

Inoperable
運用不可

30 day loss

空港電力施設Shakingdamage to airport
electricpower facilityの震動被害
NOYES

Inoperable
運用不可
Restoration of operation of commercial
民間航空機の運航再開
aircraft

30 day loss
Loss 20 days
(takes 20 days to restore perimeter security fence damaged by tsunami)

the perimeter security fence or to the terminal building
closes the airport for 20 days, and a 51% probabilityof damage to fuel supply facilities or electric power
equipment of closing the airport for 30 days. In thisway, a method of visualizing or quantifying risk toprovide material on which decision-makers can basecountermeasure decisions was proposed.
In addition, a method of showing the probability ofthe occurrence and quantity of loss of each earthquake
in the coming year at one airport, a method of
calculating the funding necessary to measurecountermeasure effectiveness, and a method ofcomputing the restoration curve necessary to prioritizecountermeasures were proposed.

0.2
0.1
0.0

0～3～6～9～12～15～18～2120～24～27～3030

Days commercial operation halted (days)
Normal expected loss (NEL) = 25.10 days
Predicted maximum loss (PML) = 30.00 days

3. Future challengesWe wish to continue research and development
while obtaining the understanding of concerned
persons in order to promote the use of the private
sector: preparing more realistic predictions ofconditions considering disruption of access, fire and soon, or methods of analyzing the financial impact of anearthquake and tsunami on a company with operationrights.
[Source]TECHNICAL NOTE of NILIM NO. 756
http://www.nilim.go.jp/lab/bcg/siryou/tnn/tnn756.htm