National Grand Design & Spatial Policy in Depopulating Period
Hiroshi Kaneko and Nozomu Kiuchi
Urban Planning Department, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,
1 Tachihara, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki, Japan,

ABSTRACT:
Recent Japanese demographic change can be characterized in two aspects; 1) decrease of the national
population which is the first case after WWII, 2) in parallel, aging of the average population and decreaseof average family size. The demographic change of a nation is said to shift from “high birth rate andhigh death rate” to “low birth rate and low death rate” via “high birth rate and low death rate,” in
conjunction with economic and medical development, and the time lag resulted in the upside-down
triangle of population pyramid. Japan is recently mostly characterized by the low birth rate especiallyafter the 1980s. Taking look at the demographic shift in modern age, migrations from rural villages tourban cities and from smaller to larger cities are dominant at the national level with rare exception during
war times, generating under population and excessive concentration problems especially during rapid
economic growth period. Superiority of Tokyo, the capital, is recently increasing, emerging tendency ofexcess concentration of population and industry in the Metropolis.
Correspondence of Japanese housing and urban issues and policy to its demographic change can beseen in 2 ways. Firstly, Japanese cities accepted most of urban migration in their suburbs. After somedecades of twists and turns, our planning system reached to Area Division System of Urbanization
Promotion/Control Area and Development Permit System, although some tune-ups adjustments still had
to take place. Even after the cease of population increase, increase of floor area per capita by decreaseof family size and etc. were the main driving factor for urban expansion, and motorization also in local
cities and towns. Secondly, the “demographic bonus” and the opposite “demographic onus” by the up
growth tide of baby boomers generated different urban housing issues such as construction of low level
wooden rent housings and creation of hazardous region against urban fire, development of suburban new
towns, emergence of vacant housing problems and etc.. We still have to see what the recent demographic
change will actually bring out to our urban and housing policies.
The issue of population decline and aging in Japan is accepted as decline of working and spending
population issue economically, sustainability issue of our social security system, and in spatial planningsustainability issue of communities in small villages, suburban residential districts and condominium
buildings. Some national and non-profit institutes try to draw out our future taking particular note of
spread of non-resided areas in our territory, or unsustainable local communities within both rural districts
and metropolis where young women tends to move out.
Our “Grand-design of National Land” declares to cope with depopulation and aging issues mainly in
3 directions. Firstly, by substantive increase of production and consumption population by social
participation of women and aged populations who otherwise are blocked out. Secondly, by maximum
application of information technologies in geographically constrained areas. Lastly, by formation ofcompact hubs and networks system, to provide urban dynamism, public and private services throughout
the nation, and reduce their costs. The weight and directions varies by such as the size of the city.

11. Recent Demographic Change of Japan and Issues
1-1. Recent Japanese Demographic Change
Japan, because of the long life-span and low birth rate, is now known as the leading country in theworld for aging of society and population decline. The overall recent demographic change can becharacterized in two aspects;
1) recent decrease of the national population which is the first case after WWII, actually, from 2010,
the population is declining consistently,2) in parallel, aging of the average population and decrease of average family size.
Fig.1 shows the population and population composition transition of Japan after WWII. Forecast
data is provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The over-all
population has peaked out in 2010, and is projected to continue to decrease to about 86 million in 2060.
Taking look at the population composition, Japan entered “aging society” in 1970 (aged population ratio
over 7%), and “aged society” in 1994 (aged population ratio over 14%), and “super–aging society” in2007 (aged population ratio over 21%), productive age population ratio in parallel, is decreasing from1990’s. Birth rate, or total fertility rate of average women, which was above 4.0 in 1950, then dropped
dramatically to around 2.1 until 1970, and then dropped again to the lowest-ever level 1.26 in 2005.
Past
Past

Pop. (Million)

Future80%

ProductiveAgePop.Ratio
70%
60%

OverAge 65

50%

40%

Age 15～6430%

Aged Pop. Ratio

Birth Rate

20%
2.0
10%
1.0

Under Age 14(by MLIT)(source: Population Census and IPSS Household Projection)

Fig.1 Population Transition

Fig.2 shows transition of household numbers and household-type compositions of Japan. The overall
Person/Household

Households (thousands)
60

FuturePast

Average household size

50
Other household type40
A married couple with their child(ren)30

20

A married couple only

10

One-person households

’80

’85

’90

’95

2000

’05

’10

’15

’20

’25

’30

(by MLIT)(source: Population Census and IPSS Household Projection)

Fig.2 Household Transition2

number of households is still growing and projected to reach its peak in 2015, because of lowering average
household size. The household type of married couple with their child(ren) which used to account for
the largest proportion, gave place to one-person household type in 2010 due to exceeding aging society.
and increasing percentage of unmarried eligible people. These phenomenon overall, accounted for thedecrease of average household size, which was over 3.0 until 1985, and is now lower than 2.5, even below
2.0 in large cities.
Fig.3 shows the transition of population pyramid in quarter-century intervals, from 1925, including
future projections. It is generally said that, along with economic and medical development, thedemographic change of a nation shift from; the first stage “high birth rate and high death rate” to, second
stage “high birth rate and low death rate”, and, the final stage “low birth rate and low death rate” situation.
Japanese society has undergone the three stages very rapidly and as a result, the orthodox triangle pyramid
which can be seen until around 1950, will turn upside-down in one century. Today, it shows a so called“bottle shape”.

1925
1950
1975
2025 総数
2050
84百万人
112百万人
総数
総数 総数
84百万人
総数 112百万人
総数 総数112百万人84百万人
総数112百万人
総数 84百万人総数 総数
総数 112百万人
127百万人127百万人
総数 総数127百万人121百万人
総数
総数 121百万人
総数 2000
127百万人121百万人
総数 127百万人
84百万人
総数 112百万人
総数 121百万人
84百万人
総数 総数
112百万人
総数 60百万人
60百万人
総数総数
60百万人
人
総数 127百万人
総数 121百万人
総数 121百万人
127百万人
総数 97百万総数 84百万人
60百万人
総数 97百万人
総数 97百万人
総数 97百万人（歳） （歳）

（歳）

～

男

～ 94
女

～1 84

（歳） （歳） （歳）（歳）（歳）
60million（歳）（歳）（歳） （歳）（歳）
84million（歳）（歳） （歳）（歳）
112million（歳）（歳） （歳） （歳）127million

（歳）
（歳）
（歳）
（歳）
121million（歳）（歳） （歳）
97million（歳）（歳） （歳）～100 ～100 ～ 100 ～100 ～100 ～ 100 ～100 ～100(million)～100 ～～
100 ～100 ～ 100 ～ 100 ～100(million)～100 ～ 100 ～ 100 ～100 ～100 ～100 ～100 ～100 ～100 ～ 100～100～100 男
男
男 100
男
男
男
男
男
男 100
男
男
男～ 男
男(million)
男 男 (million)
男
男(million) 男
男(million)
男
男
男
男
男
男
男
女
女
女
女
女
女
21
女
女
21
21
24
90
～
94女
女
女
女
90
～
94
女
女
女
21
24
女
90女～9094 ～ 94女
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
90
～
94
女
女
女
女
女
90女～ 9490 ～ 94女
女
90 ～ 94909 ～ 9490 ～ 女94
90 ～ 94
女
99 90 ～ 94999(old-old)
80 ～ 84
801 ～8084 ～
80
84
1 8480 ～ 80
3 8480 ～ 80
80 ～ 8484 ～
843～ 84
84 ～ 84
80 31～8084～ 80
84
80 3～8084～ 84
84 ～ 84 3 80
80 ～80 ～ 84 1 80 3～ 80
3 84 1 80 1～ 80
80 ～ 8480 ～～ 80
84 ～ 8480 ～～ 80
84 ～ 84841～80841～ 84
8411～ 8075（歳） （歳）

（歳）
（歳）

100 ～
100 ～
男
男
男
21
24
女 ～90
女
90
94～ 94女
9
80 ～8084～ 84

100
100 ～
～
男
24～
女21 9090～ 94
947015～7074～ 74
14
13
60 ～6064～ 64

70 ～
～ 74
74
15 70 14

80
80 ～
～ 84
84

70
74 13
70
～ 70
74 ～ 746～ 74
70 ～ 74
6 3 ～707413
6 ～ 7015～ 64

702 ～70
74 ～ 7470 ～ 70
74
70 ～ 74 2 703 ～ 70
70 ～ 74 3
742～70743～ 74
7432～ 70674 ～ 74
3
6 ～ 7470 ～ 70
6
13
65
60 ～6064 ～ 6460 ～ 60
60 ～ 60
64 ～ 6460 ～ 60
64 ～ 64
60 ～ 64
60 ～ 64
64 ～6064～ 64
64 ～ 60

60 ～ 60
64 ～ 64
60 ～6064～ 60
64 ～ 64
60 ～ 64

75 ～ 7470
70 ～ 74
～
74
～ 74
～ 74
70 ～ 7470～
747013～707415
70 13
～ 70
74 15
7015
～ (young-old)
74 14
13 70
6
14
65
60 ～ 6460
64
60 ～ 6460
64
60 ～6064～ 64
60 ～
～ 60
64 ～ 6460 ～～ 60
64 ～ 64～ 54

50 ～5054 ～ 5450 ～ 50
50 ～ 54
54 ～5054～ 54

50 ～ 50
54 ～ 54
50 ～5054～ 50
54 ～ 54
50 ～ 54

50 ～ 54
50 ～ 5450
54
50 ～5054～ 54
50 ～
～ 50
54 ～ 54

50 ～5054～ 54

50
50 ～
～ 54
54

～
50 44

～ 44
40
40 ～ 44 86 40
4035～40
4450
～
44
4071
～ 44
～ 44
～ 44 76 40
40 ～ 44
4476
～ 40
4476
44 86
4076
～
44
4086
～ 44
～ 44
～ 40
44 71
～ 4440 ～ 40
～ 4440 ～ 40
～ 44
40 ～
40 ～
4086
～ 40
4471
4071
～ (productive
44 ～40 ～ 444435～404450
4435
50
50 44 age)
50～404486
76～404471
86～404450
76 44 35 4050～ 40
86 44 50 4076～ 40
50

40 ～
～ 44
44
71 40
50

～ 34

30 ～3034 ～ 3430 ～ 30
30 ～ 34
34 ～3034～ 34

30 ～ 30
34 ～ 3430 ～ 30
34 ～ 34
30 ～ 34
34 ～ 3030 ～ 30
34 ～ 34
30 ～3034～ 30
34 ～ 34
30 ～ 34

30 ～ 34
30 ～ 3430
34
30 ～3034～ 34
30 ～
～ 30
34 ～ 34

30
34
30 ～
～ 30
34 ～ 34

30 ～3034～ 34

30
30 ～
～ 34
34

～ 24

20 ～2024 ～ 2420 ～ 20
20 ～ 24
24 ～2024～ 24

20 ～ 2024 ～ 2420 ～ 20
24 ～ 24
20 ～ 24
24 ～ 2020 ～ 2024 ～ 24
20 ～2024～ 20
24 ～ 24
20 ～ 24

20 ～ 24
20 ～ 24
20
24
20 ～2024～ 24
20 ～
～ 20
24 ～ 24

20
24
20 ～
～ 20
24 ～ 24

20 ～2024～ 24

20
20 ～
～ 24
24

～ 14
30
～ 4

10 ～ 1410 ～1014 ～ 1410 ～ 1010
14
10 ～ 1410 ～ 1014 ～ 1410 ～ 10
14 ～ 1410 ～ 1014 ～ 1410 ～1014～ 1010
14
10 ～1014～ 14
14 ～ 1410 ～ 1410 ～ 1410 ～～ 10
14 ～ 1410 ～～ 10
14 ～ 1410 ～ 14
14 ～1014～ 14
14 ～ 10
22
22
30
30 27
27
27
19
19 13 (youth)
30
27
19
13
22
30
19
30
27
19
13
9
22
30
27
27
19
13
9
0 ～ 04 ～ 4 0 ～ 0
00 ～
0 ～ 40 ～ 4 0 ～ 40 ～ 04 ～ 40 ～ 4
0 ～ 40 ～ 4 0 ～ 40 ～ 04 ～ 40 ～ 4
00 ～～ 404 ～ 40 ～ 4 0 ～ 04 ～ 40 ～ 4～ 404 ～ 4
4 ～ 04 ～ 40 ～ 4

15

10 ～1014～ 1413
919
0 ～ 04 ～ 4

1 55

5 150

～ 74
3

百万人

15

50 ～ 50
54 ～ 5450 ～ 50
54 ～ 54
50 ～ 54
54 ～ 50

総数 97百万人
総数 97百万人

（歳）

50
54
50 ～
～ 50
54 ～ 54

60
60 ～
～ 64
64

13

10
10 ～
～ 14
14
9
00 ～
～ 44

（歳）100 ～15 0 55 5 5 151 00 1 0 555
55 1 0 1 0
51 0 5555 151 00 51 0 551 0 5 5 1 0 5 15 0(million)
55 1 055 1 0 515
5
1 0 55 51 0 15
55 1 0 51 0 55 1 0 55 1 5 1男
5 51 0 51 0 5551 0 5 5 1 0 5 15 0 51 0 555
50
男1（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万
（百万人）（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）（百万人（百万人（百万人））（百万人）（百万人
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）
（百万人）（百万人）
（百万人
）
（百万人）
）（百万人）（百万人（百万人）） （百万人）
（百万人
）
）
100 ～
女 1950年男女年齢5歳階級別人
男女241950年男女年齢5歳階級別人男
1925年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025
1950年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別人級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1950年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2050年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1925年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1925年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2050年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2050
年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別人
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2050年男女年齢5歳階901950年男女年齢5歳階級別人～1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
94 1950年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2025年男女年齢5歳階級別人
齢5歳階級別人
1975年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
2050年男女年齢5歳階級別人
men2000年男女年齢5歳階級別人
women(Source:Population
Censusand
IPSS
Population
Projection)
口 口
口 口
口
口
口
口
口 口
口
口 口
口
口 口
口 口
口 口
口 口 口
口
口 口
口
口 口 口
口
女
女口
24
90 ～ 94
Fig.3 Transition of Population Pyramid
80 ～ 84
80 ～ 84 Taking look at the emergences and transition of baby-boomer generations, the 1st baby-boomer
70 ～ 7414
70 ～ 74generation peak after WWII can be found at the bottom of the pyramid of 1950, after WWII, and the 2nd
14
60 ～ 64 generation
baby-boomer
peak can also be seen at the bottom of the 1975 pyramid. However, there are（百万人） （百万人）

60 ～ 64hardly any signs of the 3rd baby-boomer generation; it seems to be “vanished” around 2000 because of
50 ～ 54
low birth rate.
50 ～ 54
40 Focusing～ 44 on the transition
50 of several age-group populations, youth age-group (0-14yrs) population
40 ～ 44after around 1950,
50 is declining. Productive age (15-64yrs) population, increased with the development
30the～ social
34 economyofand reached its peak around 2000 when the 2 baby-boomer generations were
30 ～ 34involved, and is now on the down slope. Old age (65yrs-) population is, of course increasing; young20 ～ 24
20 ～ 24old age (65-74yrs) population seems to be stable for several decades after 2000, whereas old-old age
10 ～ 14(75yrs-)population seems to be now fundamentally increasing.
9
10 ～ 14 Migration across the country
borders are irrelevant to the overall population trend in Japan, so far after
0 ～ 4
9WWII, as we only accept immigrants in exceptional cases. However, demographic shift among the0 ～ 4
1 0has been important
5
5
regions of Japan,5of course,when regional population trends are discussed. During
5
1
0
5
（百万人）
5 （百万人）modern age, generally, migrations from rural villages to urban cities and from smaller to larger cities,
万人）
（百万人）
especiallyto 7 metropolitan
areas, are dominant with rare exceptions during the war times. Such
歳階級別人
2050年男女年齢5歳階級別人
migrations
generated
depopulated
district problems and excessive concentration problems, especially人
2050年男女年齢5歳階級別人口during rapid口
economic growth period. Recently, under the development of economic globalism,superiority of Tokyo the capital is increasing, emerging tendency of excess concentration of populationand industry in the Tokyo Metropolitan area.
Taking a look at the transition of population of 47 Prefectures from 1955 to 2035, showing previously
mentioned trend. Prefectures which attracted many people by 1955, namely the 3 metropolitan areas,
seems to have continued increasing until 2005. Aged population ratio transition can also be seen, from3the same figure. Population decreasing local prefectures are expected to increase the ratio even higher
in 2035 than in 2005. However, 2 major metropolitan areas around Tokyo and Osaka also increase theratio, and quantitatively, aging society in these metropolitan areas are expected more seriously in the
future1-2. Urban Issues and Policies Corresponding to Demographic Change
The correspondence of Japanese housing and urban issue and policy to its demographic change in thepast can be seen in 2 ways; “urban expansion” and “demographic bonus/onus”.
Firstly, during the rapid economic growth period, Japanese cities accepted most of urban migration in
their suburbs, and considerable amount of offspring generations chose to live in suburbs instead of
traditional living style with their parents. These movements caused drastic urban expansion and sprawl
of disordered suburbs. After some decades of twists and turns, our city planning system reached to Area
Division System by the City Planning Law, in 1970, consisting by Urbanization Promotion Area,
Urbanization Control Area and Development Permit System as shown in Fig.4. Developments were
supposed to take place mostly within designated Urbanization Promotion Area and individual areas underDevelopment Permit, thus controlling urban sprawl and preventing development without sufficient
infrastructure provision. However, as for urban expansion, even after the cease of population increase,increase of floor area per capita by decrease of family size, as mentioned before, were the main driving
factor for urban expansion, and motorization also in local cities and towns.

Urbanization
Control Area
Urbanization
Promotion Area

Development
Permit(by MLIT)

Fig.4
Fig.5 Urbanization Control System

Fig.5 shows the transition of Densely Inhabited District (DID) defined by each Population Census,
showing the abovementioned phenomenon. While expansion of DID area were tremendous during 1960s
and 1970s, and still continued in 1980s, the average population density of the area decreased consistently
during 1960-1990.
Pop. Density of DID
120
year

40.8million

100

year

person/ha

8056.0million

year

year

69.9million
78.2million

60

year
year

40

20
0
0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

DID Area (ha)10,00012,00014,000(source: Population Census)

Fig.5
Fig.6 Transition of Densely Inhabited Districts (DID)

Secondly, the “demographic bonus” and the opposite “demographic onuses by the up-growth tide ofbaby boomers generated different urban housing issues, of segmented age group, during the transition of4

population pyramids from orthodox triangle to reverse triangle as described before. When the so-called“dankai” generation, or the first baby-boomers, grew up to arrive at a certain age generation, thecorrespondent segmented housing market expanded, and when they further grew and left the generation,
the market shrunk. These dramatic demographic movements generated several kinds of urban housing
issues, such as construction of low level wooden rent housings, creation of hazardous region against urban
fire, development of suburban new towns, emergence of vacant housing problems, and etc.. Turning tofuture perspective, it is an important issue to know what housing and urban issue and policy the projected
population decline and other demographic changes as described in the former clause will actually bringout in the future.
Fig.6 shows the 3 viewpoints of the issue of population decline and aging discussed in Japan. Fromthe economic viewpoint, the issue is accepted as, decline of working and spending population, possibly
relating to economic shrinkage. From social point of view, the issue is often discussed as matter ofsustainability of national social security financing system, expecting more and more pension outgoes for
elderly people and less and less income reserve from working generations.
I.

Economic Issue: Decline of working and spending population

II. Social Issue: Sustainability of our social security system

III. Spatial Issue: Sustainability of communities in small villages,
suburban districts and condominium buildings
Fig.6
Fig.8 Population Decline & Aging Issues

From spatial planning point of view, the issue is taken as sustainability of various communities; insmall villages, suburban residential districts, condominium buildings, and etc.. As many of thedevelopments during the rapid economic growth period intended to accommodate a mass of housing
demand efficiently during short period time, the properties were owned, and flowability (selling andbuying of the used estate) were low, many of these communities changed hand-in-hand with the progressor aging of the main household generation.
Of course, the spatial issue itself is bringing out a lot of discussions throughout the nation. A recent
topic is “Nippon Sousei Kaigi”, a non-profit institute, trying to draw out our future. They focused on
the future number of young women (20-39yrs) of municipalities as population reproduction potential andpredicted the future population of municipalities in 2040, and projected the spread of non-resided areas,or unsustainable municipalities within both rural districts and metropolis (Fig.7). The black zone in the

Young women below -50% and population over 10,000
Young women below -50% and population below 10,000

http://www.policycouncil.jp/pdf/prop03/prop03_2_2.pdf

Fig.7 Population Projection by “Sosei Nippon” (2014)
Fig.11Young women below -50% and population over
5 10,000
Young women below -50% and population below 10,000

http://www.policycouncil.jp/pdf/prop03/prop03_2_2.pdf

Fig.11 Population Projection by “Sosei Nippon” (2014)

figure indicates the municipalities which will possibly “disappear” by 2040, because young women willbe less than half of the present population, or below 10 thousand.
They insisted to make a common cognition of nation’s serious depopulation situations, and to takeprompt effectual policies based on long-term and comprehensive viewpoint. The first fundamental
objective, they insisted, should be set as “satisfaction of public’s ‘desirable birthrate’”, and thus all related
policies should concentrate to create social environment for young people to marry, bear and raise theirchildren (besides coping with issues of increased aged generations).
This future population projection together with the devastating term “disappearing municipalities” wastalked about by many heads of municipalities or at local assemblies, of course, especially in suchmunicipalities named as possibly disappearing.

1-3. Urban Expansion and Depopulation in Joetsu City
In this section, urban expansion and depopulation of Joetsu City, which is a local city located in thesouthwest of Niigata Prefecture and heavy snowfall area, is described as an example. The old city wasapproved in 1981 by an equal amalgamation of former Takada city and former Naoetsu City when theCity decided to build City Hall building in the middle of the 2 existent centers. Another amalgamation
took place in 2005, with vicinal 13 municipalities (towns and villages).
The total population is 203,899 (by 2010 Population Census), and with slight exception from 1975
to 1985, the City’s population continues to decrease almost consistently after the WWII (Fig.8). By theforecast of National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, it is estimated to fall down tonearly 150 thousand by 2040. Population increases from 1980 to 2010 can only be seen in former Joetsu
City area and adjacent former Kubiki Ward (former village), and population decrease in other 12 former
towns and villages are sharp. By age divisions, over 65 years shares 26.3% of the total population, andespecially in Oshima, Maki, and Yasuzuka Wards, the share rapidly grew, and recently reached over ornearly 40%. The population decrease is also remarkable, and the progress of further decrease is expectedin these districts.
Densely inhabited district (DID) keeps expanding with the progress of infrastructure provision aroundperson/ha

30

100
Future80
DID Pop. Density

person (10 thousands)

Past

25

20

15

1960

59thou1970

60
69thou

1980

1990

40

2000

73thou72thou2010
82thou20

10

84thou

ha

0

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

DID AreaFig.8 Population Transition in Joetsu City
Fig.12

Fig.9 DID Transition in Joetsu City
Fig.13

Kasuga-yama where the City Hall locates (Fig.9, Fig.10). DID population density is consistently
decreasing, and after 1985, fell below 40 people/ha. The city planning district, occupies 32.9% of theadministrative area, and is composed of three city planning districts, among which only the Joetsu City
Planning District contains the urbanization control area. The population density in the urbanization
promotion area is low below 30 people/ha. As for FAR regulations, 500% is designated in the centersof Takada, Naoetsu, Kasuga-yama, and also around the Joetsu General Hospital, however, sufficiency rate
is very low and they are misfit. The Hokuriku Shinkansen (bullet train) station is under construction at
the southern edge of the built-up area and is planned to function in 2015.
Little incentives work to intensify population and urban functions in the city core, and the geography
and the story behind urban formation does not easily admit it. Therefore, a strategy is needed to provide

6incentive to promote accumulation in the city core area together with control of accumulation in thesuburbs. To go back planning history of Joetsu City, Fig.11 shows the “First J-Plan” of the City drawn
up in 1996 targeting population of 300 thousand, by urban expansion between the “3 Cores” of Naoetsu,
Kasuga-yama, Takada, to the east bank of Seki River, and around the new Shinkansen station.

LegendLegendLegendDensely Inhabited
District (DID)

Densely Inhabited
District (DID)

DID in 1970

DID in 1970

DID in 2005
Densely Inhabited
District (DID)
Naoetsu DID
DID in 1970
Takada DID
DID in 2005
Railway
Naoetsu DID
City Planning Area
Takada DIDUrban Promotion
Area
Railway City Boundary
City Planning Area
Urban Promotion
Area
City Boundary

DID in 2005
Naoetsu DID

Takada DID
Railway
City Planning Area
Urban Promotion
Area
City BoundaryFig.14 Spread Fig.10
of DIDSpreadin Joetsu
City in Joetsu City
Fig.14of DID
Fig.14 Spread of DID in Joetsu City

Fig.11 “First J-Plan” of Joetsu City in 1996 TargetingFig.15Population of 300thousand

15

7

2. Spatial Policy in Depopulating Period
2-1. The Review of Initiatives for Intensive Urban Structures
It is recognized that to address the population decline, aging of society, and the necessity to streamline
urban management costs, we should aim for a compact city with “intensive urban structure” in which a
certain number of people live densely in an certain area where a good living environment and space forinteraction are efficiently provided by concentrating the urban functions and public services they require.
This report presents related trends.
The term “compact city” reminds us of initiatives taken by Aomori City and Toyama City, which weretaken while the national and local governments were debating various issues in preparation for enacting
new laws to invigorate city centers. The beneficial effects of encouraging compactness on the cost of
maintaining public facilities and on the conservation of energy were advocated, and people’s focus wason concentrating urban functions in city centers and preventing additional expansion.
Toyama City created a compact city structure (lines and circles) centered around the transportation
axis of railways, existing and new LRT as well as route bus lines and used housing subsidies to build
housing near stations and stops of main bus routes (Fig.12).

Established LRT as
transportation axis

Diagram of future line and area urban structure
Toyama City (Public transportation is the line
and the living areas are the circles

Fig.12 The Vision of Toyama Compact City
Fig.16

Act on the Improvement and Vitalization in City Center, enacted in 1998, focused on concentratingurban functions in city centers, improving streets and parking facilities, and providing public
transportation networks to city centers, to improve built environments together with the invigoration ofcommercial activities, while striving to minimize the contribution of the central government. However,city centers did not cease to decline as a result of unachieved designation of land use regulation and thecontinued competition to locate large stores in suburbs or on former factory land.
An advisory given in response to the question “How should urban planning be done in the new age?”,submitted in June 2005 by the Sectional Committee on Urban Planning and Historic Landscape of the
Panel on Infrastructure Development, noted in its first report in February 2006 the need for “urban
restructuring” to replace existing urban structures with concentrated urban structures, in which thelocations of commercial, administrative, medical, cultural, and other functions which provide services
over wide areas are concentrated to ensure accessibility without reliance on automobiles, thus creating
cities in which many people can enjoy convenient daily life. This resulted in the necessity for policies
based on an awareness of urban shrinkage. The three revised acts on urban planning enacted in 2006

8

(Revised City Planning Law, Act on the Measures by Large-scale Retail Stores for Preservation of Living
Environments, and Act on Vitalization in City Center) strengthen the involvement of the national
government in approving plans made by local governments, setting and evaluating numerical targets, etc.
and require measures to restrict the location of large-scale facilities which attract many customers,
particularly in the suburbs of regional cities. Methods for land-use control in suburbs have increased, but
the goals in this case were to help achieve goals established separately for city centers.
The Sectional Committee on Urban Planning and Historic Landscape continued studies in response to
the question of 2005, and concluded its deliberations on February 2011, when it received progress reports
from the Safe and Secure Urban Planning Subcommittee and City Planning Statutory System
Subcommittee. The report from the City Planning Statutory System Subcommittee clearly states the basic
guideline: “In place of past urban planning and related systems which focused on land and supply
countermeasures, new systems will be repositioned to implement intensified city structures permitting
sustainable urban life, sustainable urban activities, and sustainable environments.” In this basic guidelineof the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), announced in November 2012 topromote sustainable and vigorous national land and regional development, “regional intensification(proximity of medical, employment, and residential functions)” and “formulation of low-carbon andrecyclable systems” are presented as directions for new policy development to create a sustainable society.
Act on Promotion of Low-Carbon Cities, enacted on December 2012, conforms to such directions.
There is high correlation between compact cities and low carbon cities, as CO2 emission is affectedby the urban structures significantly. For example, Maebashi City and Kochi City, which both have thesame size and population, though CO2 emission per person in Maebashi City is 1.21 ton, CO2 emission
per person in Kochi City is only 0.87ton (Fig.13). Therefore, Maebashi City has approximately 40%
more annual CO2 emissions per person in the passenger transportation sector as it is a low density citydependent in vehicle transportation. In addition, city areas with high population density tend to havelower CO2 emissions per person.

Population

Population(by MLIT)

Fig.13 Comparison of Maebashi City & Kochi City
Fig.17

9

Act on Promotion of Low-Carbon Cities, was enacted on December 2012, as the first step in bringing
new perspectives, such as a way of the declining birthrate and eco-friendly living and livelihood of aging
society, and to provide an environment where people and private businesses work together for thedevelopment of a compact city.
Under the act, local governments may designate Low-Carbon City Development Plan (Fig.14). The
plan allows local governments to create ways to comprehensively promote countermeasures for a lowcarbon city in the Urbanization Promotion Area. Local governments may designate those items asfollows in the Low Carbon City Development Plans.
1) Planning areas
2) Planning goals
3) Requirements for achieving goals
4) Requirements for assessing achievement status5) Planning period, etc.

Fig.14
Fig.18 Image of Low Carbon City Plans(by MLIT)

Local governments may certify Low-Carbon Building, in compliance with the pioneering
requirements of a low-carbon city in the Urbanization Promotion Area. In order to be certified as a low
carbon building, the building must take measures to contribute the low carbon city development inaddition to the reduction of energy consumption to be more than 10% (energy saving standard ratio).
As incentive systems, reduction of income tax system for a certified low-carbon building and special
bonus system to increase the total floor-area are prepared. Also, superior urban development project,applied to Low-Carbon city Development, can enjoy some types of measures for regulation relaxationand financial support through subsidies.
Low Carbon City Plans are designated in 16 cities of the whole country on October 2014.

2-2.National Grand Design 2050
A new national long term vision, National Grand Design, was mapped out by Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), on July 2014. The National Grand Design shows the
future vision, based on long term demographic forecast. MLIT plans to revise the statutory National
Formation Plan (10 years plan), in accordance with this Grand Design.
10Outline of National Grand Design 2050 plots trends and subjects as follows;
1) Sudden population decline, come from declining birth rates2) Aging of population reaching another dimension
3) Progress of globalization and serious competition among cities
4) Growing risk of mega disaster, aging infrastructures
5) Limitation of food, water, energy, global environmental issues
6) Renovation of technologies, such as ICT (information & communications technology)
Fig.15 shows population increase & decrease ratio from 2010 to 2050. MLIT investigated future
population and the influence to land use, from the Population Census 1km mesh data of 2010. The figure
shows that 19% of current resided area will be non-resided, and 44% of current resided area will lose
more than 50% of the current population.

Decrease ratio 50%～

Decrease ratio 0～50%
Increase

Non-resided Decrease ratio 50%～ Decrease ratio 0～50%

Increase(by MLIT)

Fig.15
Fig.19 Population Increase & decrease ratio (2010→2050)

Our “Grand-design of National Land” declares to cope with such depopulation and aging issues mainlyin 3 directions. Firstly, by substantive increase of production and consumption population by social
participation of women and aged populations, who otherwise are blocked out from the labor market.
Secondly, by maximum application of ICT technologies in geographically constrained areas. Lastly, byformation of compact hubs and networks system, to provide urban dynamism, public and private services
throughout the nation, and reduce their costs.
Of course, the weight and directions varies by such as the size and location of the city.
Fig.16 is the detailed situation of Kantou region, or Tokyo metropolitan area (left), and the detailed
situation of Tohoku region (right), showing the contrast of the different depopulation and aging issues
among regions. In case of Kantou region, there are still areas, especially in city center, expecting
population increase, while most of the suburbs expect 0-50% decrease. However, rapid increase of aged
people is comparatively more serious problem of the region. In Tohoku region, which is adjacent to thenorth border of Kantou region, only surrounding areas of Sendai-city expect population increase.

11

uninhabited
50-100% decrease
0-50% decrease
increase

Tokyo metropolitan area

Tohoku region

Fig.16 Population increase & decrease ratio (2010-2050)
Fig.20(by MLIT)

Northern part of Tohoku region, is expected suffer from spread of non-resided areas widely among
mountainous areas.
Fig.17 shows the principles of the National Grand Design 2050. To develop and sustained
communities and regions, including rural area under such situations, reinforcement of diversity andconnectivity are required; first, by looking for unique resources for local development in each region,
polishing them and rebuilding diversity, secondly, by reinforcement of connectivity among regions
promoting exchange of peoples, goods, and information, and finally, by formation of urban compact hubs
and network system supporting diversity and connectivity. Resilience for disaster prevention should also
be required.
● Each region rebuilds diversity, and polish own resources.
● Reinforcement of connectivity among some regions promotes
exchange of peoples, goods, information.

● Formation of urban compact hubs and network system supports
diversity and connectivity
Principles of National Land Development

Diversity

Connectivity

Resilience(by MLIT)

Fig.17
Fig.21 National land and regional development by the reinforcement of diversity and connectivity

Basic strategies are shown in Fig.18 and upper two items are the important issues; construction ofsmall core, especially in rural areas, and high level combined urban area, as the cell of the national land
are required, and formation of super mega region by new traffic linkage is also required in 3 major
metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka).

12Basic strategies
 Construction of small core and high level combined urban area, as the cell of thenational land
 Formation of Super Mega Region and new traffic linkage
 Formation of two surface urban structure facing Pacific ocean and Japan sea
 Creation of the stream of the person from metropolitan area to rural area by thepromotion of a country life Reconstruction of communities to live lively both children and elderly people Beautiful country strong against disasters
 Infrastructures are used wisely
 Training of the bearer of national land and regions
etc.
Fig.18 Basic Strategies of National Grand Design 2050
Fig.22

Fig.19 explains the concept of “small cores” in rural areas. As in rural areas, depopulation and aging
are already progressed; non-resided area will be 19% of current residence area in 2050. In order tomaintain the communities, scarce living facilities, such as stores and clinics, are accumulated together inthe limited small core area compactly. It will be convenient for aged people get there, and emergency
correspondence will also be easy.
● Living facilities, such as a store and a clinic, brings together in the area
which walks and can go to, and forms the small core connected in thecircumference colony and the network.
The residents of circumference area aresupported in the network by traffic andinformation and telecommunications.

New employment is created by theoutlet of the specialty of the area,
installation of biomass energy plant, etc.
Living facilities, such as a store and a clinic,
are accumulated around an elementary
school or the old public office governmentbuilding compactly.
(by MLIT)

Fig.19 “Small Core” Concept in Rural Areas
Fig.23In regional level, new concept of “high-level combined urban area” is proposed, in order to maintainconsiderable population in the region, by formation of net work among several cities (Fig.20). In caseof Matsue and Yonago urban area, in two adjacent prefectures, they are proposed to be connected by ahighway, enabling to maintain population of 300 in the combined urban area which otherwise will be
impossible. By such ways, several local cities share the high level urban functions mutually, for instance,
emergency medical center, university, and department store and etc., by utilizing network andstrengthening connectivity
Formation of nation-wide “super mega region” is another new concept in regional level (Fig.21).
Construction of new linear Chuo-shinkansen (bullet train), starting this year and intended to be completed
in 2027, will link Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka within only an hour’s trip. By the Linear Chuo-shinkansen,
3 metropolises will be unified and form super mega region which comply total population of 64 million.
The scale is so large and has no precedent in Japan and rarely in other parts of the world, and making themost use of their resources is highlighted.

13

〇 A highway is utilized〇 A highway is not utilized
Pop. of the area ×10000

Central cityof the area

Central cityof the area

Mastue cityPop. of the area ×10000

Mastue,Yongo city

Yongo city

300,000 urban areas are maintainedby a network

In this situation 300,000 urban
areas disappear(by MLIT)

Fig.20
Fig.24 Formation of “High-level Combined Urban Area”

The Linear Chuo-Shinkansen will
be an underground railway

Super Mega Region(by MLIT)

Fig.21
Fig.25 Formation of “Super Mega Region”

Fig.22 shows the underlying keyword of “urban compact hubs and network” systems. To maintainhigh level urban functions such as emergency and critical care center, university and department store,
considerable population is required even under the depopulating situation. Therefore, it is required toaccumulate urban facilities and population compactly and also to form network for securing servicing
area population.

Significance and necessity of the formationof compact hubs and network system
To maintain high level urban functions, considerable population is required.
The examples of high level urban functions maintainable by a population of
300,000. Emergency and critical care center, university, department store.
It is required to accumulate urban facilities compactly, and to format network forsecuring area population.

Formation of urban compact hubs and network system
B- city

C- town

A- city

LegendUrban area
Small core
Road

Network system
Formation of a compact hub

Fig.22 Formation of urban compact hubs and network system
Fig.26

14(by MLIT)

2-2. Revision of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Renaissance
The revision of The Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Renaissance, to realize compact cityand correspond to population decline of local cities, was enacted in May 2014. Under the act, local
governments may designate City Functions Adjustment Plan, to stipulate the appropriate location of urban
facilities, such as hospitals, welfare facilities, schools, and etc. (Fig.23).
City Functions Adjustment Plan
Local governments may designate Urban Facilities Adjustment Plan that stipulates
the appropriate location of urban facilities, such as hospitals, welfare facilities, etc.

Urban facilities instruction area

Residence instruction area
● Proposal of the city planning by privatecompany that constructs housing is possible.
● Construction of the residence more than the
fixed number of houses, are set as theobject of a prior notification and advice.
●Designated residence control area in city plan,
construction of the residence more than the
fixed number of houses, are set as theobject of a prior notification and advice.

● Designated urban facilities in city plan, theregulation of building use and floor area ratio
may be deregulated.
● Finance support to the private company
arranging instruction facilities.
● Construction of the urban facilities designatedoutside the area, are set as the object of aprior notification and advice.
The area aims at
planned arrangement ofurban facilities
PublicPublictransportation
Transportaion
Revision of The act of
local public transportation
activation

The area aims at
promotion ofcollected habitation(by MLIT)

Fig.23
Fig.27 City Functions Adjustment Plan under the Revised Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Renaissance

Urban facilities instruction area may be designated, in the plan, mainly in central area of the city,
considering the arrangement of necessary urban facilities. In this area, local government may designate
necessary urban facilities in each zone, and the regulation of building use and floor area ratio may bederegulated. Also, finance and taxation support will be provided to the private sector arranging
instruction facilities in accordance with the plan. On the contrary, the constructions of urban facilities arecontrolled outside this area, by obligation to prior report and may receive advice to/from local government.
Residence instruction area may also be designated, mainly in surrounding area of the urban facilities
instruction area, considering promotion of collected habitation. In this area, proposal of the city planningby private sector is possible. On the contrary, outside of this area, the constructions of residences withmore than a certain number of houses are controlled. Simultaneously, The Act Concerning Activation
Cooperation
Cooperationof city planningof cityand
planning andAction PlanAction
with aPlan
time-axis
with a time-axis
control the control
locationtheof location
urban facilities
of urban facilities
Area of City
Area of City
Functions
Functions
Adjustment Plan
Adjustment Plan

Residence
Residence
The time of
The time of
instruction areainstruction
formulatingarea
the formulating
Plan
the ○
Plan
years after ○ years afterUrban
facilities
instruction
area

Urban

●
Control ●of theControllocationof theof location
urban of urban
facilities
instruction
facilities,
andfacilities,
construction
and construction
of
of
area
residence residence● Advance●ofAdvancesmart shrinkof smart shrink

PublicPublictransportation transportation●Revision●Revisionof the City ofPlantheandCity Plan andCity Functions
City Adjustment
Functions Adjustment
Plan
Plan
(by MLIT)

Fig.24 2 Aspects under the Revised Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban RenaissanceFig.2815

of Regional Traffic was revised, and come to be able to make traffic plan to contribute to form a compact
city.
2 remarks can be pointed out of this new control system (Fig.24). First, it is not a system with thecompelling force, such as previously described Area Division System and Development Permission
System by the City Planning Law. However, it is a system based on cooperation of city planning andgentle control, consist of report and advice. Secondly, it can be said that this system is workable as aaction plan with a time-axis. First of all, based on the Plan, the location of necessary urban facilities andconstruction of residence are controlled in designated areas. Local governments may revise the City
Plan depending on the advance of smart shrink of the urban area. In the next stage, local government
may designate new city functions adjustment plan for the future. So, it looks like PDCA (Plan-DoCheck-Action) cycle corresponding to the future forecast and actual changes of population and the landuse.

3. Draft Scenario for Systematic Urban Shrinkage of in Depopulating Cities
3-1. Shrinking of Urban Areas and Relocation of Residents
With the ongoing depopulation and tough financial affairs/environment restrictions, one of the recent
challenges in the urban policy as described is to realize a “consolidated urban structure”, compact city, as
a form of “sustainable city” in provincial regions. Many cities have recently been implementing suchmeasures as; revitalization of central commercial areas, the consolidation of city functions into a specificzone in the areas designated for urbanization, the promotion of the use of public transportation and its
network maintenance, the control of large-scale customer-attracting facility locations, and the preventionof the expansion of urban areas.
However, with the exceptions of including measures to prevent the expansion of the urban areas insuburbs, they focus on accepting the migration and the city functions to consolidated areas, and does notinclude any measures to proactively shrink the urban areas by relocating the population and the city
functions from non-consolidated areas. Logically thinking, concentration of urban population to
consolidated areas under the depopulating circumstances would mean population decline in sprawled
suburbs. Hereinafter in this chapter, an attempt by National Institute for Land and InfrastructureManagement (NILIM) to map out the measures to proactively promote the “systematic shrinking of urban
areas”, which might be necessary as an option when restructuring the urban areas that are experiencing
the depopulation.
The followings could be assumed as cases that require some measures to shrink urban areas.
(1) Along with the depopulation, the demands in the urban land use have decreased and vacant lands andhouses have increased spontaneously.
(2) In the period when the situation above is left as it is and until the urban land use disappears, QOL (thequality of life), of residents has dropped and the management cost of administrative service has
increased.
(3) The emigration of residents is intended as a policy in the stages from (1) to (2) in order to control the
disadvantages in the stage (2).
From this point of view, it is clear that a key point is how to proceed the relocation of residents followedby the depopulation in the area, though there are not so many cases that can be referred to in Japan.
When it comes to agricultural villages, there are 47 track records on the depopulating-village
relocation project that intends to move from inconvenient-to-live marginal villages in mountains into thefoot of them. Former Sabukawa settlement of Saito City in Miyazaki Prefecture is one of these
settlements which decided to relocate from mountainous area down to plain fields (Fig.25). Oguni Town
in Yamagata Prefecture has succeeded to systematically promote the village restructuring as a municipality,
through core-village preparation, village relocation, and method of living in mountain in summer and at
the foot in winter (Fig.26). Yet, since the social circumstances have been changed as the roaddevelopment and maintenance level has improved, as in the pavement and the snow clearance, we haven’t
16

heard of any cases that have been worked on newly in recent years.

Fig.25 Fomer Sabukawa Settlement of Saito City (left) and Inhabitants’Fig.29Relocation House (right)

Fig.26 Village Restructuring of Oguni Town. A Farm House Which is not Used in Winter (left) andFig.30Inhabitants’ Relocation House in the Village Center(right)

In urban areas, the collective relocation for disaster prevention is in progress in such areas affected bytsunami disaster by the Great East Japan Earthquake (of March 2011). When safety against natural
disaster is concerned, it is relatively easy to obtain consent among the resident about the relocation andthe public to cover for the costs.
Otherwise, Yubari City in Hokkaido is one of the rare examples of relocation in recent years (Fig.27).
It is developed around coal mines and had the population of 120,000 in its primetime, but now its
population dropped to over 12,000 along with the closure of the mines. Its growth strategy with thetourism promotion etc. hit a setback and it is now facing a financial predicament, and the City isdesignated as an organization for fiscal reconstruction in 2010. A master plan of urban planning ofMarch 2012 is the almost only case in Japan that specifies urban shrinkage, basically targeting the“compact town development that reduces the urban management costs”. It is intended to restructure andconsolidate the municipal dwelling houses, old houses for coal miners, in each area at the moment andheads for restructuring through a gradual construction of sustainable regional communities by

Fig.27
Fig.31 Urban Shrinkage of Yubari City. Vacant Lots by Unplanned Withdrawal of the past (left). City
Master Plan (center). Public Housing Accepting Movers from Shrinked Housings (right)

17

consolidating urban areas in north to south in a long run.

3-2. Implementing Process and Elements of Systematic Urban Shrinkage of Urban Areas
Through investigation so far made us realize that the improvement of QOL of residents is a major
factor. Currently, we have worked out some draft scenarios for systematic shrinking intending to build
a method based on them to indicate the advantages and disadvantages in quantity in the future (Fig.28).
Phase①Consent formation

Deliberation
method orprocedure ofurban
shrinkagea. Deliberation/positioning
in basic concept orcomprehensive planb. Deliberation/positioning
in urban planning masterplanc. Preparation/positioning
for random plan inlivelihood formation
project②Accepting destination
improvement③Relocation④Vacant lot disposition

a. Make existent urban
district an accepting
destination.
b. Newly improve an
accepting destination by
urban district
development project anddevelopment action

Calculate compensation
cost/transfer cost according
to the following methodsa. One case examination(method to calculatecompensation amount or
the like individually)b. Maximum limit of aid or
the like are prescribed bylaw

a. Rights of land/building
remain owned by theright holder concerned.
b. Return the land to beinga vacant lot and restrict
land use for housing.
c. New land utilization(farm land, park/green
space, mega-solar, etc.)

Fig.28
Fig.32 Implementing Process for Urban Shrinkage

First of all, by reference to the process of relocation of depopulated settlements and implementationof urban planning projects, we compiled practical procedures of systematic shrinkage centering on therelocation of residents and arranged them in the following four phases.
(1) Consensus formation: Discriminate the urban area into consolidated and shrinking zones in upper level
planning process etc. and obtain an agreement in the latter.
(2) Preparation of relocation base: While the preparation of relocation to accept residents is carried out inthe consolidated zone, new public investment is cancelled in shrinking zones.
(3) Relocation: After the completion of the relocation base, relocation of residents from the shrinking zone
progresses, and in parallel, maintenance management of infrastructure in the degenerating zone iscancelled serially.
(4) Disposition of vacant lots: Along with finishing relocation from the shrinking zone, initiate
improvement as a vacant lot and utilization of the site.
Furthermore, on the premise of the above process, we have arranged composition elements necessary
for the formation of the scenario’s draft in the following four items.
a) Residents’ relocation method and their destinations: The two cases of relocation accompanied bycoercive force and voluntary relocation incentives by inhabitants and provision of housing to be an
accepting destination by government and securement of destinations by their own exertions are
considered. It can be presumed that initially inducing voluntary relocation, and subsequently, transfer
to a method to be accompanied by coercive force or the like to a phased combination.
b) Program for phased abolition of facilities and so on: Based on the concept of strategic infrastructure
improvement and management, on the premise of differentiation and concentration for service levels
on a zone–by-zone basis, from the dual viewpoints of renewal/reduction andrepletion/maintenance/abolition, consideration can be carried out on four types: renewal/repletion,
renewal/maintenance, reduction/maintenance and reduction/abolition.
c) Program for phased abolition or the like of administrative services: In the process of degeneration, it isdifficult to abolish administrative services for elderly people with low incomes, so a decrease inprovision levels and substitution of services with more inexpensive costs becomes the premise. In
addition, livelihood assistance services for the elderly in the consolidated zone can be presumed.
d) Content of improvement for transferred vacant lots: Other than the utilization morphology of an open
space utilization type, a case to make it a green space also is presumed unless it can be positively
utilized.
The specification of abovementioned processes and the composition elements had been considered in
the case study districts and we have established draft scenarios. Based on this draft scenario, we havealso calculated and arranged the effects of systematic shrinkage of urban areas, from both aspects of18

quantitative and qualitative analyses.

4. Conclusion
To conclude, Fig.29 is the ideal image of the compact city and integrated urban structure by MLIT.
Within the Urbanization Promotion Area, Local government designates Urban Facilities Instruction
Area, in red lines. Residence Instruction Area also designated, in a blue lines. Some difficulties, facing
local governments during the consideration of City Functions Adjustment Plan, we hear, are,1) difficulties for residents to understand the change of future area, and living condition changes
predicted under the population decline
2) difficulties to evaluate the long-term physical, social and economic effect under the population
decline3) difficulties to make a fair evaluation and comparison among several possible plan alternatives4) difficulties for the local governments to reach to agreements with residents to a planSo, our research institute is trying to start a new research & development project, “Research on theway of well-planned closing or restructuring of suburban built-up areas” (study duration is three years),
to predict the future urban area practically, to evaluate several zones to make smart-shrink or reorganize
urban area, and to develop appropriate management guidelines of the infrastructures for the reduction ofmaintenance cost, and of course, maximization of citizen’s quality of life (QOL).
In this research project, first, we are planning to develop the method to assess the current and future
conditions of suburban housing areas, for example, local population structure, administrative costs(maintenance costs of infrastructure, service costs, etc.) and benefits (quality of life of residents, reductionof CO2, etc.), and to determine objectively if an specific suburban housing area should be closed byremoving the residents, or should be sustained by restructuring. Secondly, we are planning to develop
the method to promote the closing or restructuring projects concretely, considering residents' intention
and administrative costs. We should also study how to promote the gradual and efficient restructuring or
closing projects considering the residents' life, not by removing them, but by downgrading the level ofinfrastructure and service there or providing alternative services to residents. Thirdly, we are planningto develop the scheme to promote the restructuring project with income by utilizing empty houses andlots. We are thinking the possible business is, for example, running solar power generation at empty lots
or vegetable plant in empty house.
We hope that our research & development overall, will brings good results and contributes to solve
the difficulties.

The bus line used as apublic transportation axis

Urbanization
promotion area
Residence
instruction area

Urban facilities
instruction area

Fig.29 Ideal Image of the Integration of Urban Structure
Fig.3319(by MLIT)