the global investor summit rome 2024

Mapping the Political Risk Landscape in 2024

What does the political landscape look like after countries
representing the bulk of global GDP choose new – or not sonew – leaders? This is the question confronting business andinvestors in 2024, as voters select who occupies the WhiteHouse and European Parliament, and with general elections inmany other key economies, from the United Kingdom to major
emerging markets like India.
At its Global Investor Summit in Rome in March, Bank ofAmerica convened some of the world’s sharpest strategicthinkers to evaluate what this potentially seismic politicalrealignment will mean for trade, growth and global diplomacy.

The impact of Ukraine
Politics have never gone away, but in 2024 the sense isthat they’ve rarely been more important. The Russia-Ukraine
conflict, the escalation in the Middle East and tensions between
the U.S. and China have raised fears of the world being further
split into competing camps, with mounting implications for
trade and technological development.
The stakes could scarcely be higher for the private sector.
“In 2024 nations representing 80% of the global equity
markets go to the polls,” noted Michael Hartnett, chief
investment strategist, BofA Global Research, in a presentation
on BofA’s Global Investment Atlas. “Historically elections
don’t matter too much to markets – but this year they
will matter a lot.”

Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist, BofA Global Research

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Mapping the Political Risk Landscape in 2024
Elections in 2024 in countries representing

ElectionsElections
inin
2024
2024
inin
countries
countries
representing
representing
60%
60%
ofofGDPGDP
60%of GDP(resizedshareworldGDP)(resizedbyby
shareofofworldGDP)(resized by share of world GDP)

Elections in 2024 in countries representing
Electionsin2024
counties
representing
40%
world
Elections2024
inincounties
representing
40%
ofof
world
40%
of worldinpopulation
population(resizedshareworldpopulation)
population(resizedbyby
shareofofworldpopulation)(resized by share of world population)

Mali Mali

KenyaKenya

ChinaChina

ChinaChina

India India

CanadaCanadaBrazilBrazil

SouthSouth
KoreaKorea

DR Congo
DR Congo
TaiwanTaiwanUnitedUnited
Kingdom
Kingdom

EgyptEgypt
ThailandThailand

Pakistan
Pakistan

India India

Indonesia
Indonesia

GhanaGhana

Iraq Iraq

Algeria
Algeria
Indonesia
Indonesia

European
European
UnionUnion

JapanJapan

NigerNiger
TurkeyTurkeyCanadaCanadaJapanJapan

NepalNepal
European
UnionUnion
European

MexicoMexicoIsrealIsreal

Bangladesh
Bangladesh

Iran Iran

SudanSudan

Ethiopia
Ethiopia

UnitedUnitedStatesStatesRussiaRussiaAngolaAngolaUgandaz
Ugandaz

MexicoMexicoRussiaRussiaEgyptEgypt

Tanzania
Tanzania
Australia
Australia

Nigeria
Nigeria

UnitedStatesUnitedStatesBrazilBrazil

TurkeyTurkeyPhilippines
Philippines
Peru Peru

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Source:Source:BofaBofa
GlobalGlobalInvestement
Investement
Strategy
Strategy

Two packed sessions at the Summit in Rome brought theurgency of these issues to life. In the first, Candace Browning,head of Global Research for BofA Global Research, hosted apanel on ‘Global Challenges in Times of Uncertainty’ thatfeatured speakers such as Kolinda Grabar–Kitarovic, former
president of Croatia and former assistant secretary-general ofNATO, and Mike Pyle, senior advisor at Macro Advisory Partners
and former U.S. deputy national security advisor forinternational economics in the Biden administration.
Panelists weighed the prospects for a resolution to the Ukraine
conflict, with one observing that the implications for Europeanunity could be positive: “The pandemic and Russia’s actions
acted as catalysts for the European Union to start
thinking like a global player in terms of our defence,”
said Grabar–Kitarovic.
They also noted that the spectrum of risks is evolving astechnology reshapes the way conflicts play out. The nexus
between cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and quantum
computing, for example, could pose significant challenges
to both defence and societal resilience.

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Yemen
Yemen

VietnamVietnam

Source:Source:BofaBofa
GlobalGlobalInvestement
Investement
Strategy
Strategy

All eyes on the White House
In the minds of many, the most significant election on thehorizon is the contest in the U.S. between incumbent President
Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, with theoutcome likely to set the tenor of the West’s wider approach toissues of trade, foreign investment and diplomacy.
“We’re in a moment when the U.S. election season willplace real stress on a range of high-profile global
economic and security issues,” said Pyle.
For an expert view of the dynamics of the U.S. presidential race,
the summit turned to political strategists with direct experienceof such campaigns. Among them was Karl Rove, former deputy
chief of staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush.
Rove joined a panel chaired by Laura Chepucavage, head of
Global Financing and Futures, BofA Securities, to weigh theglobal implications of the U.S. polls.

Mapping the Political Risk Landscape in 2024
possibility of any systemic impact, expressing faith that “theguardrails of American society are strong.”

Chepucavage noted that the outcome of the U.S. election is of
profound interest in Europe, given President Trump’s
uncompromising stance on tariffs during his previous term in
office, and President Biden’s intervention in the U.S. economy
via the Inflation Reduction Act. This was billed by the WhiteHouse as the largest-ever investment in climate action andgreen energy, but criticised in Europe for its ‘Buy American’provisions1.

“What keeps me optimistic is that we are a great country
for innovative people,” he added.
The many notes of optimism that emerged from thediscussions in Rome showed that even though the world mustbrace for some disruption from a year of elevated change, many
economies, societies and business models remain resilient attheir core. Importantly, delegates attending the Global Investor
Summit also highlighted our collective capacity to innovate, andto come together to find common ground in order to solve
challenging issues.

“There’s a lot of concern in Europe about what theU.S. election will mean for trade,” Chepucavage said.
The experts assembled in Rome said that in terms of theoutcome of the race, the decisive factor is likely to bewhich side has the most energised base. Earlier, BofA’s Hartnett
had noted that President Biden faced an unusual situation,
inasmuch as low unemployment rates of the kind that the U.S.
currently enjoys normally translate into much higher pollingnumbers for an incumbent.

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Speakers also voiced concerns over the polarising effects
of social media on political discourse, but Rove downplayed theU.S. presidential approval rating vs unemployment rate

U.S. presidential approval rating vs unemployment rate
80
LBJ 1

70

US presidential approval rating %U.S. presidential approval rating %75
Eisenhower 165

GW Bush 1
Eisenhower 2

Clinton 260

Nixon 155

Reagan 2

40

Biden ‘24

3530
2.0

Obama 2

Biden ‘22
Biden ‘23

4.0

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FordGW Bush 2
Nixon 25.0Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg

Obama 1

Trump

Truman 2

3.0

Reagan 1
Clinton 1
CarterTruman 145BushBiden ‘21

LBJ 2

50

FDR 2
JFK

6.0
7.0
Unemployment
rate%
Unemployment rate %

8.0

9.0

10.0

1

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