3 rd WASS
Oct. 12, 2020

Moonshot R&D ofhealth & medical field
Moonshot Goal7
Program Director：Toshio Hirano

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

Moonshot goal of health & medical field“Realization of sustainable care systems to overcome majordiseases by 2040, for enjoying one’s life with relief and releasefrom health concerns until 100 years old”

Aim for establishment sustainable social
systems to jump up the levels of QoL andhealthy life expectancy (“moonshot approach”)

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development1

Changes in average life expectancy (Japan, major foreign countries)
90

69

70

65

60

50

50

40

81.09 yrs for male (3rd)•87.26 yrs for female (2nd)

61

60

52

49

47

44

39

37

66

38

34
The longest Hong Kong : 84.68 32yrs
31(male: 81.7 yrs, female: 87.66 yrs) 26
24
The shortest Republic of Sierra
Leone23: 2452.21 yrs
21

30

20

United Kingdom

FranceUnited States

Source : Development Centre Studies The World Economy: Volume 1: A Millennial Perspective
and Volume 2: Historical Statistics (2016, OECD)

India

Africa

Japan

1999

1999

1950

1900

1820

1999

1950

1900

1820

1999

1950

1900

1820

1999

1950

1900

1820

1999

1950

1900

1820

1999

1950

1900

1820

01950→ Difference: More than 30 years

10

1900

4047

•

1820

Years of life expectation at birth(Average for both sexes)

81<2017>
77
Japan : 84.1yrs (2nd in the world)
68
78

77

80

WorldJapan Agency for Medical Research and Development

2Changes in cause of mortality (per 100 thousand people)
1796 Smallpox vaccine
1928 Penicillin discovery
1942 penicillin drug
1944 Streptomycin drug

Mortality rate (per 100 thousand)Pneumonia

Gastrointestinal
Infectious diseases
Tuberculosis
cerebrovasculardiseasecancercardiovascular disease(Source)Made from MHLW“demographic statistics”

CancerEmerging
Infectious
DiseaseCardiovascular disease
Cerebrovasculardisease

Pneumonia
tuberculosis

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

3Gap between average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy
unhealthy period 2016
Male

72.14

Female74.79
60

average life expectancy

(y)

80.98
8.84y

12.68y12.35yheathy life expectancy

87.14

65
70
75
80
Minimize
unhealthy
periodtowardzero 85
Difference between average life expectancy
with improved/maintained
and healthy life expectancy QoL

90

Healthy life expectancy isa period in which we can live in a healthy state or an inclusive term of the indicators(no activity restrictions, subjective health, no necessity for nursing care, no chronic diseases, etc.)〔source〕：“2010 Complete Life Table” (MHLW, 2010) and“Future Projections of Healthy Life Expectancy and Cost-effectiveness of Lifestyle Disease Control” (MHLW, 2010)
Health Science Council of MHLW Community Health Promotion and Nutrition Subcommittee・Special Committee on the Formulation of the Next National Health Promotion Movement Plan,
Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development“Reference on the Promotion of Health Japan 21 (Second) “ p254CancerJapan (2015)• New cases : 980 thousand• Death ： 370 thousand(2015 estimates from the National Cancer Center)

Global trend in the number ofcancer patients
Number of New cases of cancer
Number of deaths due to cancer

Number of persons (millions)

201510

10.9
6.7

World (2018)• New cases : 18 million• Death : 9.6 million

Estimated number of incident cases
from 2018 to 2040, all cancers, bothsexes

18.1

14.1

12.7
7.6

8.2

9.6

502002

2008

2012

2018

(Source) Trend in the number of cancer patients globally. Source: Bray F, et al. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:394-424; Parkin DM,et al. CA Cancer J Clin 2005;55:74-108; Jemal A, et al. CA Cancer J Clin 2011;61:69-90; Torre LA, et al. CA Cancer J Clin 2015;65:87-108. c American Cancer Society.
(Source) International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization ; https://gco.iarc.fr/tomorrow/graphic-isotype

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

5Neurological disorderMajor neurological disorders (in Japan)• Dementia patients : About 4.6 million• MCI (Mild Cognitive Impairment) : About 4 million• Depression・Manic depression patients : About 1.1 million(Source)MHLW “2016 National Livelihood Survey”

Estimated number of patients with cognitive
impairment in Japan
1210864202012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2040

2050

2060

Number of cases / million(Source) MHLW 2015, Japanese dementia strategy (New Orange Plan)

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

6Chronic Inflammation:

the basis of various diseases in an aging society
InjuryInfection

StressSenescencethrough neuralnetwork

Obesity

Mutagen Smoke

Local Initiators

Pollutionetc

Chronic Inflammation
The key is the elucidationand control
ChronicCancer
Inflammatoryof chronic
inflammation
DiseaseAutoimmuneDisease

Rheumatoid arthritis,
Lupus,
Thyroiditis/Gravie’s diseases,
Type 1 diabetes,
Multiple sclerosis,
etc

Alzheimer’s diseases,
Type 2 diabetes,
Hepatitis,
Cardiovascular diseases/atherosclerosis,
Glomerulonephritis,
etc

Lung Cancer,
Liver cancer,
Gastric cancer,
Colon cancer,
Pancreatic cancer,
Breast cacner,
Prostate cancer,
etc

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

7

Risks for new infectious disease
Risk Factors for Severity

Fatality Rate for Patientswith COVID-19 by Age in Japan

Aggravation risk factors

28.7

30.0

Fatality rate (%)

25.0

Overall fatality rate(%)：4.9% (in Japan)(Number of confirmed deaths as of July 8, 2020)

20.0

14.6

15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1

4.9

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80 y/oy/o y/o y/o y/o y/o y/o y/o y/oorabove(source) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
Trends in the Occurrence of COVID-19 (published April 17, 2020)

••
•
•
•
•
•

Elderlies, aged 65 years or above
Chronic respiratory disease
Chronic kidney disease
Diabetes
HypertensionCardiovascular disease
Obesity (BMI of 30 or higher)

Underlying diseases to beware ofdespite there being insufficient
information to determine whether
theyarerisk factors• Useofaggravation
biological agents• Immunodeficiency after organtransplantation or other causes• HIV infection (particularly CD4 < 200/L)• History of smoking• Hypertension• Pregnancy• Malignant tumor
Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

8Importance of QoL

QoL (Quality of Life)1.

physical status and functional abilities2.

psychological status and well-being

3.

social interactions

4.

economic and/or vocational status

5.

religious and/or spiritual status

Treatment
Efficacy

World Health Organization.
Constitution in basic
documents.Geneva: 1948.
Equivalent to the healthconcept as defined by WHO.

QoL

(overall survival)

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

9Moonshot goal of health & medical field【Target】
1.

Realization of a society where everyone can prevent diseases spontaneously in daily life.

2.

Realization of a medical network accessible for anyone from anywhere in the world3.

Realization of drastic improvement of QoL without feeling load
(realization of an inclusive society without health disparity)
Sustainable care system for enjoying one’s life until 100 years old

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development10