Harnessing the role ofproductive forests as aneffective strategy for REDD+
How to reconcile the need for protecting
our climate with the with the demands
for food, fuel and fibre of rapidly growing
populations
Gerhard Dieterle
How far have we reached ?
Overview the history of REDD+ and explore
opportunities
6 February 2019, Tokyo, Japan
INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION (ITTO)

Tropical forest degradation: geography ofcarbon density change• Tropical forests are a net
release of carbon of 425.2± 92.0 Tg C yr–1 (losses of861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C yr–1 andgains of 436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C
yr–1 from forest growth)•Losses result from (i)deforestation and (ii)reductions in carbon
density within standing
forests (degradation)accounting for 68.9% of
overall losses

A. Baccini et al. Science 2017;science.aam5962

Large impact of forest management and grazing
on global vegetation biomass• Land management effects(forest management andgrazing) contribute 4247 % to the reduction of C
stocks• On-site preservation ofcarbon stocks on
managed forests andraising the contribution of
biomass to raw material
and energy supply for CC
mitigation

ERB et al. 1/2018, NATURE, VOL 553: 10/1038/nature 25138

Africa: hungry for food, fuel, fiberand wood
Global population by region
2017

2100 (projected)

Global population
7.55 billion

Global population
11.18 billion

Asia
4 504 million (59.66%)

Africa1 256 million (16.64%)

Asia
4 780 million (42.74%)

Africa4 468 million (39.95%)

Europe742 million (9.83%)

Latin America /Caribbean
646 million (8.55%)

Europe653 million (5.84%)

Latin America /Caribbean
712 million (6.37%)

North America
361 million (4.78 %)Oceania
41 million (0.54 %)North America
499 million (4.46%)

Oceania
72 million (0.64 %)Increasing global wood demand
Increasing Gap for Industrial
Roundwood

Increasing global demand for wood
14000
12000

Sawn Logs&Sheet1!$9:$9 Veneer
Logs

Mill m3

10000

Energy Wood

8000
6000

Household Energy
Wood

4000

IFC 2013

Total Wood Demand2000

WWF 2012

02010
1900

2030

2050

2005
2030

North America
European Union (27) + 3

Demand in woodfuel and charcoal
continues to increase••

2.8 billion people will depend on
traditional fuels in 2030
Massive increase in demand for energy
wood in industrialized countries

Australia, Japan, New Zealand
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Africa050100150200250

300350400

Primary energy supply in MTOE
Traditional uses (wood)
Production of heat and power

Traditional uses (agricultural residues)Internal use in forestry and agricultural processing

IFC/Dieterle et al. 2015

Projected effect of green economy
measures on timber supply and demandbalance in Africa
350

Projected industrial roundwood domestic demand

300250
million m3/year

223.8200150109.710081.8

50049.1

Best Caselow demandhigh supply

Worst Casehigh demand
low supply
2030

Best Caselow demandhigh supply

Worst Casehigh demand
low supply
2050

M. Grieg-Gran, S. Bass, F. Booker, M. Day, The role of forests in agreen economy transformation in Africa; UNEP/UN-REDD, IIED,
August 2015

Projected HWP supply gap in 2040 undercurrent conditions- Supply gap in six case countries -World Bank, 2015

Employment benefits of the Green
Growth Scenario- Six Case Countries -Mitigation potential of Green
Growth/Bio-economy Scenario- Six Case Countries -Potential of forest for achieving NDCs
– important for transition countries–
160000140000Peak)
120000CO2 Emissions

1000002015 (INDC)

80000

60000

40000

20000

Reducing emissions through:- Afforestation/reforestation- Restoration- Sustainable forest management- Substitution

02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Time

The forgotten component in REDD+:
Subsitution

Potential gains from forests: 8GtCO2/year
15% of 2018 mitigation gap

Forest and forest products are essentialfor mitigating climate change• Special report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (published in October 2018):– Massive investments in forestry(afforestation, restoration andrehabilitation) along with– Further use of wood-based products
and bioenergy

Essential for keeping the global temperature increase
within the target of 1.5°C

Contributions to global carbon
emissions under various pathways

AFOU: Removals in the agriculture, forestry and other land uses
BECCS: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Source: IPPC Special report, summary for policy markers, October 2018

Multiple wins from sustainable forest
supply chains• Economic growth• Poverty reduction• “Wood security”• Additional climate mitigation benefits: Emission
reduction + CO2 removals+ substitution + storage:
Potential is up to 8GtCO2/year, however
accounting of substitution benefits unclear• Increased environmental/biodiversity benefits• Global water regime: Rivers in the Sky

Working with partners:
SW4SW Initiative: FAO, ITTO, WB, WWF
http://www.fao.org/forestry/sustainable-wood/en/

What if?
Why legal and sustainable supply chain initiatives areimportant
Implications for Tropical timber producing
countries

Developments in Consumer countries••••••

Foreign investment by progressive wood industry
will focus on “low-risk countries” and avoiding
smallholders to ensure legality and sustainability.
Consumer countries will become increasingly selfsufficient: increasing North-South tradeMarket share of chemically & mechanicallymodified softwood (e.g. Kebony, acetylated wood,compressed softwood) eroding the demand andmarket share for tropical hardwood will decrease.
Eroding public and political acceptance of tropicaltimberDemand for verification of legality andsustainability will become the “norm” in anincreasing number of countries.
Global climate goals/REDD+ approach cannot
succeed without pivotal role of productive forests:
meeting demand of growing population,
biodiversity, water, bio-economy••••

Without addressing emerging domestic supply
gaps of timber and wood-based energy many
tropical countries will
– Depend increasingly on non-renewablematerials (steel, concrete, fuels)– Risk of increased deforestation/degradation– Loss of biodiversity/primary forests andprotected areas– Face trade deficits and loss of jobs/income
from increasing dependence on wood
imports
No investments without reducing risks andimproving governance is essential for attracting
foreign investment
Legal and sustainable supply chains do not workwithout incentives for investments and capacity
building
Risk of losing global market access for tropicaltimber if not produced legally and sustainably;

The Role of ITTO

Promote sustainable production & consumptionof wood as a contribution towards a bio-based
economy and meeting demands of a growing
global population

The Specific Role of ITTO
Promote sustainable production & consumption of wood as acontribution towards a circular economy
Intervention Area

ITTO Service Offer as part of the CPF SW4SW InitiativePolicies

Creating awareness across international forest regime; policy processes, bio-economy:
Poverty alleviation, economic/rural development, climate, biodiversity, social

Incentives

Urgent need for fiscal and taxation incentives as stimulants for massive investments insustainable tropical forest landscape restoration and production
Country case studies on incentive mechanisms for increased investments in FLR andsupply chains; supply-demand analysis; bio-economy potential etc.

Global Green Supply Chain
Platform

Promote/facilitate conversion towards universal criteria for legal and sustainablesupply chains; reduce complexity for producers and consumers.
Support to Information and Business Exchange facilitation

Information and capacity
building

Support and assist with information, data and skills throughout supply chains:producers and consumer government, traders, processors, market;
Building user associations among SMEs and informal
Supporting including verification/certification systems

Tracking and verification
systems

Piloting innovative tracking and verification technology; state-of-the-art wood
identification technology (genetic fingerprinting etc.).

Assist private sector
initiatives

Encouraging/promoting/piloting private sector initiatives for green supply chains(from legality to sustainability); company-commodity certification is not sufficient18–avoid supply chain apartheid. What to do with informal sector?

The raising attention to landscape restoration
globally 16 international organizations (incl. 11 CPF members) withmajor program on (forest) landscape restoration
 At least 10 global initiatives and 3 regional FLR initiatives
started and implemented
 8 major FLR guidelines / guidance developed At least 7 FLR tools designed and made available
so far, focus on carbon, carbon storage, biodiversity,community development
need to look at entire supply chains, form market to theforest, private sector to unlock full SDG benefits

Towards as Global Green Supply Chain Platform
Chinese Private Sector Initiative (GGSC) - Beijing, June 2018

• GGSC members: Currently 14 progressive
Chinese wood importing and processing
enterprises.
Trade volume ~US$ 14 billion• GGSC secretariat: CINFT / NFGA(National Forest and Grassland
Administration, previously SFA).
• GGSC promotion committee: GGSC secretariat,ITTO, China timber and wood products
distribution association, Green carbon
foundation, (open for enterprises to join).
• GGSC expert group: ITTO TAG, CINFT.
• External stakeholders / supporters: MOFCOM,GIZ Forest Policy Facility, TNC, DfID etc.

Connect with us !
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dieterle@itto.int
www.itto.int