ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]ROLES
WORKING PAPERS
Local (community) Resilience in Conflict zone Regions: in the search for Factors of Conflict
resolution and Recovery Potential
Number: 002
Submitted: January 22, 2024
Authors: Olena Akimova, Iurii Perga, Anna Ishchenko

Local (community) Resilience in Conflict zone Regions:in the search for Factors of Conflict resolution and Recovery Potential
Olena Akimova, Iurii Perga and Anna Ishchenko
Abstract
As the events of the Russian war in Ukraine show, the resilience of the local communities in theregions of the combat zone and frontline regions as the ability of de-occupied communities to recover
is not equal. Given the hybrid nature of modern war, its informational and manipulative component,
as well as the very real threats posed by missile and drones attacks on the territory of Ukraine, there
are currently no completely safe communities. The main goal of this article is to identify the factorsof local resilience in order to find those that are crucial for conflict resolution and recovery of theregion. Historical examples of Local resilience in conflict zones are analyzed, such as the Vietnam
War (1955-1975), Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-1996), Rwanda (Post-Genocide
Recovery), the Croatian War of Independence (1991-1995). The construction of the Local ResilienceIndex is an assessment of the sustainability of different regions, focusing on different aspects such as
governance efficiency, economic factors, security assessment and social capital. The main source forcalculating the Index is the data of sociological studies conducted in 2023 on representative samples
in different regions of Ukraine.
Keywords: local (community) resilience, conflict zone regions, Ukraine, conflict resolution,
recovery potential.
***********************************************

Olena Akimova, PhD, Associate professor, Dean of the Faculty Sociology and Law Igor Sikorsky
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute; Iurii Perga, PhD, Associate professor, Vice Dean for the Research andInnovation of the Faculty Sociology and Law Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute; Anna
Ishchenko, senior lecturer, director of the Research and Educational Center of Applied Sociology
Socioplus Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute1
RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]Introduction
The politics of any modern state is difficult to imagine without a well-developed
comprehensive national security policy to counter a wide range of threats, including traditional
military threats, cyber threats, terrorism, and non-traditional security challenges such as climatechange and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of implementing such a policy varies in different
countries. In addition, public policy and administration in the field of early conflict prevention should
be developed not only at the national but also at the local and regional levels. All communities develop
approaches to responding to challenges, from major storms to pandemics, but some are more active
in crisis preparedness and respond better to them (Levesque, V.R., Bell, K.P., Johnson, E.S., 2024).
The particularity of Ukraine's case lies in the fact that the question of concluding the acutephase of the war remains open. Therefore, the necessity of the recovery of regions affected byoccupation, shelling, or hostilities, as well as the strengthening of communities under potential threat,is an issue that needs to be addressed simultaneously with conducting military operations to defend
the country. This issue is also relevant given the global impact of the Russian war in Ukraine on theeconomy and security of all regions of the world without exception (for example Dragos, Dinca &Dumitrică, Cătălin & Nicolescu, Cristina Elena & Dogaru Cruceanu, Tatiana. (2023) or Mhlanga, D.,& Ndhlovu, E. (2023).
1. Resilience and local resilience definition
The concept of resilience, especially in relation to hazard events, is widely applied acrossvarious fields. These include psychology and psychiatry, public health and related sciences, as wellas environmental science, engineering, and the broader spectrum of economic, social, and behavioral
sciences.
It's noteworthy that the majority of scientific research on resilience primarily focuses on theability of local communities to withstand stresses, typically of natural origin. In our study, however,
we shift the focus to communities' capacity to resist military aggression, in terms of both sustaining
their critical functions and other social and socio-psychological aspects of local communities'
resilience. Predominantly, factors in the latter category fall within historical, cultural, political, or
religious contexts.
In the context of local resilience, we may consider several key factors. Infrastructure
Resilience which includes the physical structures and systems (like buildings, transportation, andutilities) that are essential for community functioning. Ensuring these are robust and adaptable tochanges or disasters is crucial for local resilience. Social Resilience involves the strength andadaptability of social networks, community organizations, and the overall social fabric. A resilient
community tends to have strong social ties, effective communication channels, and the capacity forcollective action. Economic Resilience pertains to the ability of a local economy to absorb shocks(such as a recession or the loss of a major employer) and to adapt to long-term changes in economic
conditions. Environmental Resilience involves the capacity of local ecosystems to withstandenvironmental changes and stresses, such as climate change or pollution, and to continue providing
essential services like clean air and water. Governance and Institutional Resilience addresses toeffective leadership, good governance, and the presence of robust institutions are crucial for
coordinating responses to challenges and for implementing strategies that enhance resilience. Some
2
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]studies have highlighted cyber resilience (Choi, S.-H., Youn, J., Kim, K., Lee, S., Kwon, O.-J., &Shin, D.,2023).
2. Resilience factors – literature review
Resilience is generally understood as the ability to recover from or adjust easily to adversity
or change. It can refer to both materials and individuals. In the context of materials, resilience refers
to the ability of a substance to return to its original shape after being bent, stretched, or pressed. In
the context of individuals or systems, resilience often refers to the ability to withstand and recoverfrom difficult situations. It’s a dynamic process that involves coping with adversity using available
resources and skills1.
Local resilience in conflict zones is influenced by a range of determinants, including social,economic, environmental, and institutional factors. Research has identified the following key
determinants. Strong social networks and community cohesion are often associated with higher
resilience levels. As strong economic resources may give more access to livelihood opportunities,
income sources, and economic diversification can enhance resilience. On the other hand, effective
governance, institutions, and rule of law are essential for building and maintaining resilience. We
should also take into account the availability of basic services such as healthcare, education, and cleanwater contributes to community resilience.
The question of determining the factors of community resilience is also important in thecontext of achieving the sustainable development goals, including goal 16 on achieving sustainable
peace. However, some scholars (Mhlanga, D., & Ndhlovu, E. 2023) believe that current scientificpapers do not pay enough attention to how war poses a risk to the achievement of SGD.
The issue of community resilience is not entirely new to research. Varghese (2006) tends to show
more specific correlation between composition of ownership and the type of local ownership andlocal resilience. In other words, likelihood of setting clear objectives for supporting local
employment, community initiatives, and the business's long-term sustainability increases when thereis broader participation in ownership among employees, managers, and local community members.
Anna Bulakh (2016) reflecting on the factors of resilience in eastern Ukraine, concludes thatbuilding resilience requires local ownership, capacity building and comprehensiveness. An importantfactor of resilience is the community-based approach to security and the development of a sense of
responsibility for community security, which can ensure a rapid response to a crisis. Anna Bulakh(2016) says that if a society is able to self-organize, mobilize and provide a solid foundation for state
institutions in times of crisis, a response mechanism that can define resilience is in place.
Jakob Hedenskog (2023) substantiates the idea that the resilience that Ukraine demonstrated
after Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, did not emerge from a vacuum. Along withthe factors of reforming the armed forces, modernizing logistics, communications, and cyber defense,
the author also identifies the role of civilian formal and informal activism, which has become an
integral part of Ukraine’s response to Russia’s war.
Monika Huber's "Definition of Resilience", published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden in
2023, delves into the etymology and evolution of the term 'resilience.' Originally used in materialscience to describe a material's ability to return to its original shape after pressure, the concept has
1"Resilience." In Cambridge Dictionary. Accessed January 22, 2024.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/resilience.

3
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]been adapted into psychological parlance. In this context, resilience refers to the capacity to navigate
through and recover from challenging life situations without enduring harm. This definition implies
that resilience manifests in response to adversity, relying on existing resources and skills, and is not
an inherent trait.
Huber's work further explores resilience as a domain-specific attribute, acquired throughexperiences and only partially transferable across different life areas. This perspective frames
resilience as a dynamic and active process, emphasizing the role of active adaptation in the face ofadversity. Central to this concept is the maintenance or rapid restoration of mental health during andafter challenging situations, highlighting resilience's active and process-oriented nature.
Additionally, Huber emphasizes that resilience is not solely a crisis management tool but alsoa crucial element in natural developmental processes. It fosters self-efficacy, defined as confidence
in one's abilities and resources, and the belief in overcoming obstacles to achieve specific goals. This
broader view of resilience underscores its significance in both overcoming adversity and promoting
personal growth and development.
In "Cities in a Time of Terror: Space, Territory, and Local Resilience" (2015) by H.V. Savitch,
the concept of urban terrorism is explored as a strategy that exploits a city's inherent strengths toinduce self-implosion. Savitch identifies three fundamental logics guiding terrorist targeting of urban
areas. The author emphasizes the notion of local resilience, conceptualized as a city's ability to recoverfrom terrorist attacks. Additionally, it offers insights into sustaining and enhancing this resilience,
providing a comprehensive analysis of urban terrorism and its implications for city planning andsecurity.
Mamediieva G., Moynihan D. (2023) consider the potential of digital government and analyze
how the war was the impetus for the acceleration of the use of digital capabilities, which were used
not only for defensive military purposes, but also to ensure the continuity of civilian aspects of public
administration, in particular the provision of digital documentation and assistance to displaced
persons. According to the authors' conclusions, digital capabilities have become a key basis for
Ukraine's resilience.
Considering the fact that the issue of reconstruction and stability of communities in Ukraine
is already relevant, despite the active nature of the war, the approach (Olsson, P., & Moore, M.-L.
2024). Аccording to which the exit from the state of war or violent conflict requires transformation
is interesting, but there are no guarantees that the transformations will automatically lead to peace,stability and justice The authors focus on the transient phase when the system is in a suspended state
between the existing dominant state and a new alternative state. Developing a theoretical framework
for understanding peacebuilding as a transformative process of change, the authors of the study
advocate combining resilience-based transformations and transformative justice research to address
the complex dynamics of peacebuilding, given that peacebuilding processes are a form of crisisinduced transformation.
3. Historical examples of Local resilience in conflict zones
Vietnam War (1955-1975): The Vietnamese people exhibited considerable resilience during
the Vietnam War. Despite facing a technologically superior adversary and enduring significant
hardships, the Vietnamese utilized guerrilla tactics, deep knowledge of their local terrain, and strong
community solidarity to resist and ultimately expel foreign forces.
4
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-1996): During the Bosnian War, the city ofSarajevo was besieged by Bosnian Serb forces. Despite severe shortages of food, medicine, and basic
services, the citizens of Sarajevo displayed remarkable resilience. They developed undergroundnetworks for food distribution, makeshift schools, and cultural activities to maintain a sense of
normalcy and community spirit.
Rwanda (Post-Genocide Recovery): Following the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has
demonstrated significant resilience in rebuilding its society. Efforts have focused on reconciliation,community-based justice (Gacaca courts), and economic development. Rwanda's recovery showcases
how a society can emerge from a devastating conflict and work towards stability and growth.
The resilience of Croatia during the Croatian War of Independence (1991-1995) offers anotable example of local resilience in a conflict zone. This conflict, part of the broader Yugoslav
Wars, was characterized by intense and widespread fighting, as well as significant political and ethnic
tensions.
Despite the challenges of war, Croatian communities often displayed remarkable cohesion
and solidarity. Local initiatives to support displaced persons, organize humanitarian aid, and provide
medical services were critical in sustaining the civilian population during the conflict.
Faced with aggression, Croatian forces and local militias organized effective defensive
strategies. Notable examples include the defense of Vukovar and other besieged towns, where despite
being heavily outnumbered and outgunned, local defenders held out for extended periods against
Yugoslav and Serb forces, demonstrating resilience and determination.
The Croatian economy faced significant disruptions due to the war. However, there was aconcerted effort to adapt to the wartime economy, with shifts in production and trade patterns to
support the war effort and sustain the population.
Throughout the conflict, there was a strong emphasis on maintaining Croatian cultural identity
and heritage. This was seen in efforts to protect historical sites and cultural artifacts from destruction,
as well as in the continuation of cultural and religious practices under difficult circumstances.
Croatia's efforts to gain international recognition and support were crucial in its resilience.
The recognition of Croatia's independence by the European Community and other nations in January
1992 helped legitimize its position and enabled access to international support and diplomaticchannels.
Following the end of hostilities, Croatia faced the challenge of rebuilding and reintegrating
war-affected areas. Efforts in reconstruction, reconciliation, and the return of displaced persons were
key aspects of Croatia's post-conflict resilience.
We can defy common and different aspects of local resilience between Croatian case in 19911995 and Ukrainian case in 2022-2023. In both Croatia and Ukraine, strong community solidarity
and cohesion have been critical in facing the challenges of war. Local initiatives, volunteer efforts,and support networks have played vital roles in providing humanitarian aid, medical care, and support
for displaced persons.
Both countries have shown remarkable resilience in organizing their defense against
aggression. This includes mobilizing and training military forces, developing local militias or
territorial defense units, and employing strategic defensive tactics suited to their respective terrains
and situations.
Both Croatia and Ukraine have actively sought international support and recognition.
Diplomatic efforts to garner political, economic, and military assistance have been crucial insustaining their resilience in the face of conflict.
5
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]The economies of both countries had to adapt to wartime conditions, with shifts in production,
trade, and resource allocation. Economic resilience has been key to maintaining some level ofnormalcy and supporting the war effort.
On the other hand, the international legal and political contexts differ significantly between
the two conflicts. The Croatian War occurred during the dissolution of Yugoslavia and amid a broader
redefinition of national borders in Eastern Europe. The Ukraine conflict, on the other hand, involves
issues of territorial integrity and sovereignty under the current international legal framework,
including the UN Charter and various international treaties. Croatia's conflict was part of the earlypost-Cold War era, whereas Ukraine's conflict is occurring in a more established post-Cold Warinternational order. This impacts the nature of international alliances, geopolitical strategies, and the
involvement of major powers.
One of the most significant differences is the extensive use of digital communication andsocial media in the Ukrainian conflict. Platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Telegram have been
crucial for real-time information sharing, coordination of humanitarian aid, mobilization of support,
and dissemination of narratives. In contrast, during the Croatian War, such platforms did not exist,
and information dissemination relied more on traditional media like television, radio, and newspapers.
In Ukraine, technology is also used to bolster civilian resilience. Mobile apps for early warning of air
raids, online platforms for coordinating volunteer efforts, and crowdfunding for humanitarian andmilitary support are examples of how technology empowers civilians in conflict zones. Such tools
were not available during the Croatian War, where resilience efforts were more reliant on physicalnetworks and traditional forms of communication.
4. Methodology
The aim of constructing the Local Resilience Index is to assess the resilience of various
regions, focusing on different aspects such as governance effectiveness, economic factors, security
evaluations and social capital.
Macroregion
Kyiv
Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv Regions
Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia,
Chernivtsi Regions
Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy,
Khmelnytsky Regions
Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson Regions
Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv Regions

Administrative units of
UkraineKyiv (capital city)
North
West
CenterSouth
East

A primary source for calculating the Index is data from sociological surveys conducted in
2023, which employed representative samples across various regions of Ukraine. This approach was
dictated by two key factors. Firstly, sociological data offer the flexibility and promptness required forstudying shifts in public consciousness, as compared to state statistical data, which typically exhibit
significant time lags. Secondly, there are objective circumstances that hinder access to a substantial
6
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]

portion of state statistical data and reports from government bodies. These are due to legal conditions
imposed by the martial law in Ukraine, which restrict the disclosure of certain types of official
government data. However, a portion of the data was collected from state statistical sources, as, in
our opinion, it could not be adequately replaced by alternative indicators. This includes data on the
Gross Regional Product of Ukrainian regions (as of 2021) and information regarding the condition of
the housing stock prior to the large-scale invasion.
The index considers a multitude of factors across different domains:••••

Governance Effectiveness: Evaluating how effectively local governments can respond to and manage crises.
Economic Factors: Assessing the impact of the crisis on property damage, employment status, and othereconomic indicators.
Social Capital: Measuring aspects like population migration patterns, community cohesion, and public trust
in institutions.
Security Aspects: Measuring aspects like criminogenic situation in region, self-evaluation of psychologicalexhaustion of population and safety needs.

AspectGovernance
EffectivenessIndicator, data
•
•

•

•

Economic Factors••

Reconstruction Efficiency Indicator (Population's Expectation
Alignment with Reconstruction Status): Measures the level to which thestate of reconstruction meets the expectations of the population.
NGO Interaction Indicator (Assessment of Potential for Partnership
Creation Between Local Authorities and Your Organization): Evaluates
the potential for establishing partnerships between local government
bodies and organizations.
Overall Government Effectiveness Indicator (Proportion ofPopulation Deeming the Actions of Ukrainian Authorities Effective
Since the Start of Russia's War Against Ukraine): Assesses the public
perception of the effectiveness of government actions since the onset of theconflict.
Trust in Local Government Level: Indicates the degree of public trust in
local governing bodies.
Criticality Indicator of Civil Infrastructure Destruction (Proportion ofPopulation with Property Damage): Measures the extent of damage tocivilian infrastructure experienced by the population.
Population Welfare Indicator:

Proportion of Population Demonstrating a Need for Financial
Assistance: Assesses the segment of the population indicating aneed for monetary support.
Unemployment Rate: Measures the proportion of the labor force
that is without a job.
Gross Regional Product in Current Prices, Million UAH, for2020): Reflects the total economic output of a region in the specified
year.
•

Housing Need Indicator (Proportion of Population Living in
Temporary Accommodations): Evaluates the percentage of individuals
residing in temporary housing, such as hotels, dormitories, or with friends,
relatives, or other unfamiliar persons.

7
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]•Social Capital
Factors

•
•
•

•
•

Security Aspect ••••Reconstruction Needs Indicator (Ratio of Emergency Housing Area
per Capita): Assesses the extent of housing in disrepair relative to the
population size.
Reintegration Indicator (Proportion of Those Who Left Their Homesand Later Returned): Measures the percentage of individuals who had toleave their homes but subsequently returned.
Settlement Indicator (Proportion of Those Who Stayed in Their
Homes): Indicates the percentage of the population that remained in theirhomes during the conflict.
Settlement Indicator (Conflict Resilience - Proportion of Those Who
Do Not Plan to Leave Their Homes in Case of Conflict Escalation):
Assesses the resilience of individuals in conflict situations, specificallytheir intention to stay in their homes despite conflict escalation.
Religiosity Indicator (Proportion of the Population Expressing Trustin the Church): Measures the segment of the population indicating trust in
religious institutions.
Social Distance Indicator (Proportion of the Population Trusting NoOne): Evaluates the level of mistrust or social distancing within the
population.
Housing Need Indicator (Proportion of Those in Greatest Need of Safe
Housing): Assesses the segment of the population with an urgent need for
secure living conditions.
Safety Need Indicator (Proportion of Those Who Do Not Feel Safe):
Measures the percentage of individuals who do not feel safe in theircurrent environment.
Psychological Exhaustion Indicator (Proportion of Those Willing toReceive Psychological Assistance): Evaluates the percentage of the
population indicating a readiness to receive psychological support.
Criminogenic Indicator (Ratio of the Number of People Who Died Dueto Criminal Offenses to the Total Population): This metric evaluates the
proportion of individuals who have died as a result of criminal activities inrelation to the overall population size.

Index Calculation Steps included normalizing the data, assigning weights to different factors,
and aggregating these to form an overall resilience score for each region.
5. Data Analysis
Index exploration provides a comparative analysis of local resilience indicators acrossdifferent regions of Ukraine, delineated by specific metrics. The Index illustrates that Kyiv and theWestern and Centre regions possess relatively higher resilience across all categories, whereas theEastern region demonstrate the lowest levels of resilience.

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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]The indicators of the western, central, and Kyiv regions each have their distinct
characteristics. For example, Kyiv exhibits the highest Economic Potential Indicator at 0.86, a
substantial Social Capital Indicator at 0.48, and a robust Security Indicator at 0.63, while there isrelatively lower institutional one at 0.36 Specifically, Kyiv exhibits the highest economic potential in
the sample, maintaining its role as the business and administrative hub of the country. Despite thefact that Kyiv has been one of the most vulnerable regions since the onset of the invasion, targetedby significant resources and efforts of the aggressor, and as of 2024, continues to be subjected toregular intense aerial bombardments, the capital has demonstrated high resilience indicators. It should
be noted that some enterprises relocated their offices at the beginning of the invasion, which posed athreat to Kyiv's status as a business center. According to expert calculations (Mixfin, 2024) as ofNovember 2023, nearly 7,820 Ukrainian companies have relocated since the end of February 2022.
Almost one-third of the relocated enterprises (27%, totaling 2,111 businesses) moved from Kyiv.
However, the resilience of the state governance system (the state authorities did not relocate theiroffices even at the start of the invasion), coupled with the effective strengthening of the city's defense
systems, have created conditions under which Kyiv currently shows the highest resilience index
scores.
The Western region of Ukraine exhibits high resilience indicators for somewhat different
reasons. Primarily, this region is home to areas perceived as the safest in the country, being the most
distant from the eastern border and out of reach for certain types of weaponry as of January 2024.
However, this does not mean the region suffered negligible losses due to the invasion. Initially, it
became a recipient of unprecedented numbers of internally displaced people, with evacuation trains
arriving from eastern, central, and southern regions. Many of these displaced individuals continued
to Western European countries, but a significant number remained in the region. Furthermore, the9
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]Western region has become a hub for business relocation. Additionally, it shows high social capitalindicators, traditionally having strong social and cultural mechanisms for its reinforcement. Thisregion records the highest levels of social cohesion (high trust in the church, low social distanceindicators) and is least affected by outgoing migration processes, as it has the highest proportion ofpeople who do not plan to leave their residence in the event of conflict escalation, as well as thelargest number of people who have never left their homes. Despite high safety indicators, the region
is not a leader in the reintegration indicator, i.e., the proportion of people who have returned home
after migration.

Regarding the Central region of Ukraine, it is characterized as the most balanced in terms ofvarious indicators. This region uniformly displays relatively high safety indicators, as well as socialinstitutional potential and economic resources. However, it exhibits a somewhat underdeveloped
component of social capital. Notably, this indicator is inherently inert and not susceptible to rapid
managerial influences, as the conditions for its enhancement are formed over generations.
Nevertheless, from a recovery perspective, this region can be considered favorable. It is noteworthy
for its balanced social distance indicators, which provide a conducive base for initiating recovery
projects, further strengthened by a considerable trust of the population in the government (due toapproval of the government's actions since the beginning of the invasion) and an adequate level oftrust in local authorities. Among the risks for this region are critical economic well-being indicatorsand challenges in housing infrastructure recovery, which inevitably exert pressure on social tension
indicators, potentially diminishing public trust in the governing system and weakening its capacity
for recovery project implementation.
10
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]The Northern region is identified as the most unbalanced in terms of the selected indicators,
yet it exhibits strong positions in certain categories. Notably, the region is characterized by highsocial-institutional potential and social capital. These factors create favorable conditions for
implementing recovery projects that rely on the interaction between the authorities and thecommunity. In the Northern region, we observe one of the highest potentials for creating partnerships
between local authorities and NGOs, a high level of government effectiveness as assessed by the local
population, and the best indicator for meeting expectations in ongoing reconstruction projects. Thisis evidenced by one of the highest reintegration rates of the population that left their homes. Notably,
the region has the highest indicator of social cohesion in terms of trust level.
At the same time, it is important to note that this region faces significant economic risks. The local
authorities are under additional pressure due to high unemployment levels, high rates of financial
need among the population, as well as an unfavorable criminogenic situation, which consequently
leads to high levels of psychological exhaustion among the local residents.
As for psychological stability, the following conclusions were made in the study of thevolunteer community (Pidbutska, N., Knysh, A., Demydova, Yu. 2023) regarding the need forspecially organized psychological help and support. The constant danger of activity, the need to be incontact with different people, moral fatigue led to rapid emotional exhaustion and can cause healthdisorders or even cost one's life.
The Southern and Eastern regions are understandably the most vulnerable in terms ofrecovery. These areas face the most acute social and economic challenges, largely due to theirprolonged proximity to active combat zones. They suffer the greatest infrastructural damage, andtheir populations are in the most precarious position regarding safety. This situation exemplifies the
cumulative effects of the war, most prominently observed in these regions. They require the mostextensive efforts and resources for recovery.
Conclusions
Based on the analyzed historical examples of community resilience during armed conflicts
and considering the results of the indexing of Ukrainian regions regarding their resilience, some
generalizations can be made. These generalizations can help identify the most effective management
decisions and policies that will aid regions in recovering more efficiently and facing challenges during
times of war.
The developed Index identified four main aspects: Governance Effectiveness, Economic
Factors, Social Capital Factors, and Security Aspect. Conclusions and recommendations for these
aspects, defining community resilience, can be summarized as follows.
The crucial role of the social-institutional factor in community resilience can be reinforced
through strengthening local governance and personal leadership. Examples of personal leadership bycommunity leaders (such as Vitaliy Kim, head of the Mykolaiv Regional State Administration) allow
us to discuss the impact of competent leadership on coordinating rehabilitation efforts during war,
their effectiveness, and relevance. At the level of small and medium-sized communities, local
leadership and management should be supported by professional development programs andstrengthening human resources in areas related to conflict resolution, critical thinking development,
and other important soft and hard skills during complex security situations. Undoubtedly, the role ofeducation cannot be overemphasized, even at the level of average citizens. The dissemination ofknowledge on providing first aid and dealing with injuries is of particular importance. The basics of11
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ROLES Working Papers 002, vers.1, published on [ July 12, 2024 ]survival and self-defense should be included in formal and informal education institutions andadapted for individuals of different ages. Additionally, the development of programs and initiatives
aimed at supporting gender equality contributes to faster and more balanced community recovery.
Programs of social and humanitarian aid are capable of promoting the development of social
capital factors. Primarily, the development of programs aimed at improving living conditions andsocial infrastructure plays a crucial role in community recovery. It is essential to build institutional
capacity in the field of healthcare within the community. Regardless of the distance of communities
from conflict zones, even the most remote communities need the deployment of rehabilitation
facilities (including war veterans), the implementation of a system of psychosocial support, andpsychological assistance.
It should be noted that this article was dedicated to examining community resilience factors
using the case of Ukraine, which is already affected by war. However, the idea of developing acommunity resilience index is relevant not only for countries currently at war but also for those thatare not directly in a state of war. Such an index can serve as a basis for developing a conflict
prevention system, tracking the dynamics of indicators, and developing management tools aimed
primarily at preventing conflicts rather than minimizing their harmful impact.

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12
RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

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13
RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp