the global investor summit rome 2024

Rediscovering Value in a Global Reset

Many of the dynamics and deeply held truths that governed theinvestment landscape over the last two decades are unwindingor even disappearing altogether. Even as major equity indices
hover near record highs and major central banks look poised
to reverse the tightening drive, Bank of America analysts havewarned of a higher-than-expected risk of a hard economic
landing1. Supply chain disruptions, continuing conflicts and anelection supercycle that will see much of the democratic worldgo to the polls are all making it difficult to predict what theglobal picture will look like at the end of 2024, let alone in theyears to come.
In discussing this difficult environment, the experts, global
investors and business leaders from across the world who

Elections in 2024 in countries representing

Elections in 2024 in countries representing 60% of GDP
60% of GDP(resized by share of world GDP)
(resized by share of world GDP)

Brazil

South
Korea

India

Indonesia

European Union

MexicoIsrealRussia
Egypt
Australia

TurkeySource: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Bofa Global Investement Strategy
1 Source:| theglobal investor summit rome 2024

A blurred outlook
The seasoned investors joining a panel chaired by Jim DeMare,president of Global Markets, BofA Securities, titled ‘Fortune
Favors the Bold: Investing to Win,’ explored the challenge ofmaking decisions at a time when signals are mixed and the full
impacts of ongoing political and technological shifts are notalways clear.

One example is the widely held view that monetary policy has
tightened and a return to an easier ‘normal’ is all but inevitable.
“There’s a huge assumption that policy rates are
restrictive – but the data on that is very blurry,” Tangnoted.

TaiwanUnited KingdomJapanMichael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global
Research, underlined the high stakes of votes in key markets
like the U.S.: “Historically elections don’t matter to markets
that much – but they will matter this year,” he said.

Richard Tang, partner and global head of markets at global
macro fund manager Rokos Capital Management, spoke ofa new ‘age of discovery’ in which investors should be ready torethink cherished beliefs, and accept that the future may besubstantially different than the last few decades.

ChinaCanada

convened at Bank of America’s recent Global Investor Summit inRome agreed on one thing: the rules have changed.

United States

The president and CEO of CPP Investments, John Graham,
told the audience that investors would also have to get
comfortable with less consistent performance.
“Over the next 25 years we expect a reset of returnexpectations,” he said.

Rediscovering Value in a Global Reset
Similarly, the countries and companies that have powered
economic and portfolio growth in recent years may nolonger represent the most compelling investment cases,
as de-risking and diversification rewrite trade networks.
Bank of America research has cited the migration ofmanufacturing resources back to the U.S. as a factor behind thesurprising resilience of the world’s largest economy2.
“Reshoring is one of the main factors to think about when
you look across the investment landscape,” DeMare
advised.

Jim DeMare, President of Global Markets, BofA Securities

Jonathan Gray, president and COO at Blackstone, was in fullagreement. “Is globalisation over? No, but regionalisationand more stretched-out supply chains will have a powerfulimpact,” he remarked in a dialogue with Karim Assef, chair of
Global Investment Banking, BofA Securities.

Reshoring mentions on U.S. corporate earnings calls(based on earnings transcripts e.g. 2006-2022)

Reshoring mentions on earnings calls for US stocks have skyrocketed since 2020

Number of reshoring mentions on earnings calls(based on earnings transcripts e.g. 2006-2022)

100100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 200 0
Jan-06
Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12
Jan-14Jan-16
Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-08
Jan-10Jan-12
Jan-14Jan-16
Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-06
Source: AlphaSense, Bofa Global Research

Source: AlpaSense, BofA Global Research

2 | the global investor summit rome 2024

YearYearRediscovering Value in a Global Reset

Over 1.3 million reshoring + FDI jobs since 2010
Over 1.3 million reshoring + FDI jobs since 2010
(cumulative)
Cumulative Reshoring + FDI jobs announced, 2010-2021

800,000
800,000

Reshoring

FDI

700,000
700,000
600,000
600,000

Jobs

Jobs

500,000
500,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000

100,000
100,000--Over 1.3 million reshoring + FDI jobs since 20102012 20132013 20142014 2015
2015 20162016 20172017 20182018 20192019 2020
2020 2021
2021
2012(cumulative)

2010 2011
2011
2010

YearYear

800,000

Reshoring

FDI

Source:Reshoring
Initiative®
2021 Data Report
700,000
Source: The
The Reshoring
Initiative® 2021
Data Report(https://reshorenow.org/content/pdf/202_R1_data_report.pdf)(https://reshorenow.org/content/pdf/2021_R1_data_report.pdf)
600,000
Jobs

In Gray’s view these trends will
favour emerging manufacturing
500,000
destinations like Southeast Asia and India – where the400,000
government is targeting 8% GDP growth over the medium
term3 – as well as investors withdedicated resources in multiple
300,000
locations at the local level. Gray also expressed confidence in
200,000
commercial real estate remaining
a promising field forinvestment, notwithstanding 100,000
the negative headlines that havesurrounded the asset class post-pandemic.
-Areas of potential

mobilise U.S.$1.5 trillion in capital by 2030 for climate andsocial development projects4.
The credit space is another case in point. The private credit
market has surged in recent years and is expected to nearly
double to U.S.$2.8 trillion by 2028, according to Preqin5,
as more investors explore the asset class.
Scott Kapnick, CEO of private credit-focused investment firm2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015
2016 201720182019 it2020
HPS
Investment
Partners,summedup for2021
the panel:Year credit is in a very good place; you’re getting“Privatelong-term
Source: The Reshoring Initiative® 2021 Data
Report equity-like returns for a fixed price.”
The Global Investor Summit
provedthatforall
theuncertainty,(https://reshorenow.org/content/pdf/2021_R1_data_report.pdf)
investors see no shortage of future opportunities or causes for
The growth of private credit is often portrayed as the result of aoptimism. Much excitement surrounds the investment cases
zero-sum game as traditional lenders pull back from the market,
that will be created by the transition to a lower-carbon, more
but as BofA’s Assef pointed out in his conversation withinclusive economy. Bank of America alone has set a goal toBlackstone’s Gray, the reality is much more nuanced.

3 | the global investor summit rome 2024

Rediscovering Value in a Global Reset“We’re seeing more and more convergence between
banks and direct lenders,” he said. “There’s more focus on
creating liquidity, which in a way takes the private out ofprivate credit.”
It’s precisely through this kind of cooperation that the private
sector can mobilise the resources needed to make the changing
patterns of global investment and trade work for wider society.
The Global Investor Summit showcased once again the value ofbringing key experts and industry leaders together to workthrough complex issues, pool knowledge and insights, andenhance their strategies in a way that reduces risk, while
putting growth on a sturdier, and more sustainable, footing.
To learn more about Bank of America’s international
business, please get in touch with your relationship manager orclick here.

Bank of America: BofA Global Research Calls 2024 “The Year of the Landing”
Bank of America Institute: Back to the USA: The case for reshoring
3
CNBC: India set to clock up to 8% GDP growth as it boosts manufacturing capacity, minister says
4
Bank of America: How sustainable finance can work for you
5
EY: Private Debt – An Expected But Uncertain “Golden Moment”
1
2“Bank of America” and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names used by the Global Banking and Global Markets divisions of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, othercommercial banking activities, and trading in certain financial instruments are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A.,
Member FDIC. Trading in securities and financial instruments, and strategic advisory, and other investment banking activities, are performed globally by investment banking affiliates ofBank of America Corporation (“Investment Banking Affiliates”), including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and Member of SIPC, and, in otherjurisdictions, by locally registered entities. BofA Securities, Inc. is a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC and a member of the NFA.
Investment products offered by Investment Banking Affiliates: Are Not FDIC Insured©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Are Not Bank Guaranteed

May Lose Value