The Japan Institute of International Affairs

Research Program B: Bottom-up Review of Security Policy
Sub-Project B-3: Post-Putin Russia

1. Outline
Vladimir Putin was re-elected in the presidential election of March 18, 2018, and hisfourth presidential term began in May of this year.
On March 1, before the presidential election, President Putin delivered a speech to theFederal Assembly and presented his domestic and foreign policies in his fourth term.
The first part of his speech addressed his own country and was devoted to political andeconomic structural reforms, while the second part, which attracted special attention
from the international community, was devoted to foreign and security policies with amore hardline character. Presenting the newest types of weapons, Putin sent a messageof "Now listen to us" to the West, with which he has been in continual confrontation
since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. Although such a strong foreign policy
acquire the sympathy of the Russian people, at the same time this policy causes concern
among neighboring countries. For example, in relations with Japan, Russia is building
up its military power on the islands of the "Northern Territories" and demonstrating aharder diplomatic attitude to Japan in connection with the territorial dispute. We
should thus pay special attention to how the foreign and domestic policies presented by
Putin after the inauguration of his new administration are being implemented.
Incidentally, in accordance with the Russian Constitution, which prohibits anyone
holding the office of president for more than two consecutive terms, this fourth term willbe the last for Putin. This means the beginning of a transition of political power and atransition to a "Russia without Putin" after 2024. Right now, the processes of changing
and rejuvenating the composition of central and local governments are being closelywatched. Particular attention is being paid to who will inherit the current politicalsystem of Russia (Putin's regime) and how Putin's successor will influence Russian
foreign and domestic policies in the future.
In this regard, our Research Group intends to analyze the features of Putin's regime,and explore what Putin's regime will leave to modern Russia from the point of view ofinternal, external and defense policies. We will also consider the direction of Russia’s
current foreign and defense policies as it is entering the new "Post-Putin" period. In thisfiscal year, the Research Group will examine how Putin's strategic initiatives in foreign,defense and domestic (social and economic) policy are being implemented under the newadministration.

The Japan Institute of International Affairs

2. Research Organization
Project Leader:
Nobuo SHIMOTOMAI, Professor, Hosei University
Members:
Yu KOIZUMI, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
Akina KOBAYASHI, Lecturer, Hosei University
Yugo KONNO, Senior Economist, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
Daisuke HARADA, Economist/Project Director, Russia Project Team Department, Oiland Gas Upstream Business Unit, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation
Kenji HORIUCHI, Associate Professor, University of Shizuoka
Shuhei MIZOGUCHI, Associate Professor, Chukyo University
Hiroshi YAMAZOE, Senior Fellow on Russian Security Studies, The National Institutefor Defense Studies, Ministry of Defense, Japan
Miho OKADA, Research Fellow, JIIA
Hironori FUSHITA, Research Fellow, JIIA
3. Project Meetings
First Meeting
Date and Place: May 25, 2017 in JIIA Conference RoomTopic: Planning of FY2017 Research Group Activities
Second Meeting
Date and Place: July 5, 2017 in JIIA Conference RoomTopics: Primakov Readings 2017
Russia’s Diplomatic Challenges
Third Meeting
Date and Place: September 28, 2017 in JIIA Conference RoomTopics: Reports of Official Trips to Spitsbergen and Moscow
Russia’s Economy and Development Strategy
Fourth Meeting
Date and Place: November 8, 2017 in JIIA Conference RoomTopics: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapon/Missile Programs and Russia
Japan-Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Project
Fifth Meeting
Date and Place: December 14, 2017 in JIIA Conference RoomThe Japan Institute of International Affairs

Topics: A Study of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far EastThe Relationship between the President and the Parliament after Russia’s 2016
Parliamentary Elections
Russian Industrial Policy under the Putin Administration
Sixth Meeting
Date and Place: January 25, 2018 in JIIA Conference RoomTopic: Interim Summary of Research Group Activities