CPB

Corporate Partnership
Board

Transport CO2 and theParis Climate Agreement

Reviewing the Impact of NationallyDecarbonising Transport Series
Determined Contributions

Transport CO2 and theParis Climate Agreement

Reviewing the Impact of Nationally
Determined Contributions

Decarbonising Transport Series

The International Transport ForumThe International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 59 member countries. It acts asa think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is the only global
body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with theOECD.
The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper
understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social inclusion and toraise the public profile of transport policy.
The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiationof policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promote exchange amongtransport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s largest gathering of transportministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.
The Members of the ITF are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Croatia, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece,
Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.

International Transport Forum2, rue André Pascal
F-75775 Paris Cedex 16
contact@itf-oecd.org
www.itf-oecd.org

Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports
The ITF’s Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issues carried out by the
ITF in agreement with local institutions. This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of
the ITF. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of ITF
or OECD member countries.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS – 3

Acknowledgements
The work for this report was carried out in the context of the Decarbonising Transport project of theInternational Transport Forum. This report was made possible by funding from the Republic of Korea(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Korea Transport Institute). The development of
the modelling framework has been supported by the ITF Corporate Partnership Board. The Partnershipon Sustainable Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT) provided a valuable review of (I)NDC. The principal
author of this report was Elisabeth Windisch with contributions and comments from Jari Kauppila andMichael Kloth.

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4 – TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of contents

Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 7
Background to Nationally Determined Contributions ............................................................................... 9
Benefits of developing an NDC ................................................................................................................... 9Content of an NDC .................................................................................................................................... 10
Setting of CO2 reduction targets in (I)NDCs ............................................................................................. 12
Economy-wide ambitions defined in (I)NDCs .......................................................................................... 15
Types of defined targets ............................................................................................................................. 15
Economy-wide ambition levels.................................................................................................................. 16
Transport in (I)NDCs .................................................................................................................................. 19
Defined transport mitigation “measures”................................................................................................... 19
Defined transport mitigation targets .......................................................................................................... 21
Impact of transport commitments in NDCs .............................................................................................. 23
Applied assessment method ....................................................................................................................... 23
Global results ............................................................................................................................................. 26
Results by region ....................................................................................................................................... 27
Results by income group............................................................................................................................ 29
Summary and conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 31
References .................................................................................................................................................... 33

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 5

Executive summary
What we did
In preparation for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Conference of the Parties held in Paris, December 2015 (COP21), parties publically communicated theirclimate commitments as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). This report gives firstan introduction to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and provides an overview of economywide CO2 reduction targets that were defined in these pledges. It then assesses the impact of transportcommitments provided in NDCs on national-level transport CO2 emissions. Given the often limited
information in NDCs concerning transport-sector ambitions and planned CO2 mitigation measures, anassessment methodology was set up that is based on several assumptions. Countries are clustered into
four different groups based on transport-related information provided in the NDCs; for each group adistinct method was established to estimate the impact of transport CO2 mitigation actions/ambitions thatare (more or less clearly) defined in the countries’ respective NDCs. The methods are based on the use of
ITF’s transport modelling framework and their baseline and low-carbon scenarios.

What we found
NDCs provide CO2 reduction ambitions, but not yet clear pathways or measures to reach ambitions
set by the Paris agreement. Often, measures in the NDCs are desired outcomes and remain vague at thebest. In some cases, the mitigation potential of identified “measures” is contestable.
Results of the assessment show that the estimated ‘NDC scenario’ projects global national-level
CO2 emissions in 2030 to attain a similar as in 2015 (reflecting a reduction of CO 2 emissions of around
1400 MT CO2 compared to a baseline scenario). However, achieving a two-degree scenario (2DS) would
require further reductions of around 600 MT CO2. To attain the level of the low-carbon scenario (ascenario that results from the combination of the most optimistic scenario from all modes and points to alower bound for CO2 emissions with currently foreseen technology and mode choice trajectories) further
reductions of around 800 MT CO2 would be required.
Results by region show that especially Asian, upper-middle income countries, are planning to
exploit most of the currently foreseeable transport CO2 reduction potential (as per the low-carbon
scenario). Other regions appear to leave some of the CO2 mitigation potential unused up to 2030. The
transport ambitions for CO2 reductions of such countries especially need to be intensified to ensure thatthe “Well-below 2 degree” ambition, as defined at COP21 in Paris in 2015, can be achieved.

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6 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

What we recommend
Move from ambitions to concrete actions for the transport sector
The 2016 Paris climate agreement must still be translated into concrete actions for the transport
sector. A wide range of policy levers are needed to reduce transport emissions and understanding theireffectiveness is crucial. This means continued research on the effectiveness of mitigation measures.
ITF’s Decarbonising Transport project aims to help stakeholders identify effective measures by assessing
them under a coherent framework. This will help countries to transform their ambitions to actions.
Keep track of transport pledges in NDCs after each revision cycle
To understand whether national climate actions have increased, it is important to keep track offurther revisions of the Nationally Determined Contributions, especially in comparison with theambitions set out in the Paris climate agreement. Tracking national plans for CO2 reduction ambitions
specific to the transport sector will also help to decrease uncertainty over future CO2 emissions of thesectorTRANSPORT CO2 AND THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT: REVIEWING THE IMPACT OF NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS — © OECD/ITF 2018

INTRODUCTION – 7

Introduction
In preparation for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Conference of the Parties held in Paris, December 2015 (COP21), parties publically communicated theirclimate commitments as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). These intended
contributions have been converted to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as countries haveformally been joining the Paris agreement by submitting their respective instrument of ratification,accession, or approval.
NDCs are thus at the heart of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of the long-term climate
goals. They embody efforts by each Party to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts ofclimate change. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving theobjectives of their contributions. These climate actions will determine whether the world achieves thelong-term goals of the Paris Agreement and reaches global peaking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
as soon as possible, consequently undertaking rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best
available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals
by sinks of GHGs in the second half of this century. It is understood that the peaking of emissions willtake longer for developing country Parties, and that emission reductions are undertaken on the basis ofequity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, which are criticaldevelopment priorities for many developing countries (UNFCCC, 2017a).
In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 12 of the Paris Agreement, NDCs communicated by Partiesare recorded in a public registry maintained by the UNFCCC secretariat. According to this registry, as of
13 November, 2017, 163 NDCs have been registered. 31 further Parties have submitted their INDCs thathave either not yet been converted into an NDC and/or have not been registered on the NDC Registry(2017). In total, 193 Parties have submitted either their INDCs or NDCs (not counting the NDC of the
EU28 in addition to the ones of its Member States) (NDC Registry (2017). Based on recent estimates ofemissions (including the land-use change and forestry sectors), the share of global emissions covered bythese Parties amounts to approximately 95% (WRI, 2017).
Under the provisions of the Paris Agreement, countries are expected to submit an updated NDC
every five years, to show a progression beyond the country’s then current NDC to reflect its highest
possible ambition. Figure 1 sets out the respective process.
This report provides an overview and assessment of the transport CO2 reduction commitments thatcountries around the globe communicated in the preparation and aftermath of the COP21 as part of their
NDCs. It first provides more background on NDCs and their general content, then gives an overview of
the treatment of the transport sector in NDCs, and finally estimates the impact of the commitments ontransport sector CO2 emissions.
The International Transport Forum intends to review updated NDC submissions every five years to
track the ambition level of transport components in the NDCs and provide a regular update.

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8 – INTRODUCTION

Figure 1. Overview of the implementation process for the Paris Agreement, including the NDC updating
cycle

Source: CDKN (2016); Notes: In 2020, countries whose NDC contains a timeframe up to 2025 are urged to communicate an
updated NDC by 2020 and every five years thereafter, while countries whose NDC contains a timeframe up to 2030 are
requested to communicate or update their contributions by 2020 and to do so thereafter every five years. The timeline is divided
into three distinct sections: (1) Preparation and early implementation (black); (2) Five-yearly review and NDC updating (blue);and (3) Long-term goals (orange).

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BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS - 9

Background to Nationally Determined Contributions
Recognising the risks that climate change poses to communities and ecosystems around the world,
the international community has adopted the Paris Agreement with the goal to limit global warming towell below 2°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Meeting this goal will require rapid reductionsof carbon emissions. The longer emissions reductions are delayed, the more difficult it will be to meetthis goal. Choices on infrastructure developments (such as power plants, transportation systems,
buildings, and the ways in which cities are built) made without considering climate change mitigation
could lock societies into emission-intensive pathways that may be impossible or very expensive tochange in time to limit global warming (WRI, 2015).

Benefits of developing an NDC
Against the backdrop of rising emissions and an increased urgency for action, there are significant
domestic and international benefits that can be realised through the development and implementation of
an NDC, including (WRI, 2015):


Getting on track towards the climate goal: The greater the number of countries that put
forward national contributions, the greater is the likelihood that the well below 2°C target
can be met.



Demonstration of a political commitment: Putting forward an NDC demonstrates apolitical commitment to limit global warming and, in turn, to limit future risks posed byhigher temperatures. The NDC process is an opportunity for countries around the world tocome forward with their best efforts, regardless of whether their mitigation potential is highor low. If an adaptation component is included in the NDC, the NDC can also raise theprofile of adaptation, articulate a country’s long-term vision for adaptation, and help Parties
gain international recognition for national adaptation actions and investments.

Realisation of non-climate benefits associated with mitigating climate change: NDCs
can provide an opportunity to design policies that mutually reinforce economic growth andclimate objectives. For example, policies that advance renewable energy supply can lower
emissions, reduce countries’ vulnerability to energy price volatility and supply disruptions,and produce benefits for human health and ecosystems by curbing air pollution.

Strengthening institutional and technical capacity: The NDC preparation andimplementation process has the potential to strengthen national institutional capacity andtransfer knowledge to sectoral institutions. As progress is tracked toward theimplementation of NDCs over time, the capacity of technical staff will increase and afoundation will be built for tracking progress not only in implementing the contribution, butalso other climate change interventions.



Policy integration: Developing an NDC enables countries to link climate change to othernational priorities, such as sustainable development and poverty reduction. It can also help
countries coordinate among sectors that currently work too much in isolation from eachother, and allow decision makers to identify synergies among sectoral plans.

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10 – BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONSInforming key stakeholders: The communication of NDCs can provide the opportunity toadvance the understanding of national stakeholders, as well as the international community,
regarding future policymaking, implementation strategies, and expected emissions
reductions and non-climate benefits that may result from the NDC. This can help build
political will for mitigation and adaptation action, and encourage stakeholders to engage inclimate change policy development or planning.

Communicate resource needs: The communication of an NDC can also represent an
opportunity for developing country Parties to communicate the additional action that could
be taken if further resources were available. It can help Parties describe support needs forcompletion and implementation of low emissions development strategies and national
adaptation plans or activities.

Content of an NDC
The UNFCCC did not provide any specific template, structure or content requirements for thedevelopment of NDCs. As a result, several guidance documents for the preparation of (I)NDCs weredeveloped by other institutions. Most notably, the following are listed on the UNFCCC website: Climate& Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) 2015, International Partnership for. Mitigation and MRV(IPMM) 2014, and World Resources Institute (WRI) 2015. On the UNFCCC website, it is highlighted
that the Secretariat does not promote any particular guidance or methods.
IPMM (2014) provides a set of components and illustrative examples of the level of detail for eachelement that could be provided, depending on the country’s capability and level of ambition (Table 1).
The focus here is put on how to present (CO2 mitigation) targets and respective policies or projects thatwill be put in place in order to meet these targets. CDKN (2015) provides a more comprehensive
template for the content of an NDC (Table 2). It also describes the national context, the planning process
and the foreseen or required means of implementation. WRI (2015) provides detailed descriptions of thepossible content of an NDC regarding both CO2 mitigation and adaption.
Table 1. Proposed (I)NDC components and respective information according to IPMM (2014)

Component
Inspirational national
long-term emissions
goal
National short-termemissions target

Energy / sectoral
targets

Highlight policies andprojects

Higher  Level of country capability  Lower
Year of intended phase Long-term peak andout of GHG emissions
decline pathway or
range
Precisely defined,
Mitigation ambition
economy-wide, multiuntil 2025 and/or 2030
year target until 2025
(below BAU, intensity,
and/or 2030
range)
Precisely defined
National energy
national energy
efficiency or renewableefficiency or renewable targets and/or targets
targets and targets
related to land-use andrelated to non-energy
forestry
emissions
Governance structures;
Governance structures;
Highlight policies /Highlight policies /projects with intended
projects with intended
impacts
impacts--

National energy
efficiency or renewabletargets, if any

Selection of a few, yet
ambitious policies
and/or projects

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BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS – 11

Explanations andinternational support
needs

Detailed explanation for
why the contribution isan ambitious andequitable contribution
to the global goal

Explanation for why thecontribution is anambitious and equitable
contribution to theglobal goal; Precise
purpose and value of
support needed

Order of magnitude of
support needed

Source: IPMM (2014).

Table 2. INDC template of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN)

National Context
This section provides the overall national context for the INDC, including how the actions set out in the
INDC fit with national sustainable development priorities and existing plans and strategies. It can also
contain a headline summary of the INDC as a whole.
Mitigation
Contribution
This section contains a summary of the mitigation contribution, including type of contribution, level ofambition and any conditionality that may be relevant for the contribution. It should be noted thatcountries may wish to specify a long-term outcome (e.g. up to 2050) as well as short-term outcome forthe period to 2025 or 2030.
Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding
This section includes detailed information to improve understanding of the contribution and allow
comparability with other contributions.
Fair and ambitious
This section sets out how the contribution is considered to be fair and ambitious in light of the country’s
national circumstances and the objective of the UNFCCC set out in Article 2.
Adaptation
This section provides an opportunity for countries to highlight current and future adaptation action
including adaptation-mitigation synergies, as well as the support that may be required for implementationof adaptation plans, developing capacity or scaling up interventions.
Planning ProcessThis section provides an overview of existing or planned domestic processes for monitoring andsupporting the implementation of the INDC.
Means of Implementation
This section describes the financial, capacity-building, technology transfer or other types of international
support related to the INDC; this information may help international partners to better understand andtarget their support.
Source: CDKN (2015).

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12 – BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONSGiven that the format of NDCs is flexible, NDCs submitted by Parties are structured differently,
vary in their content, length and in the level of detail provided.

Setting of CO2 reduction targets in (I)NDCs
Most relevant for the work carried out for this report was how Parties defined their CO2 reduction
targets in their NDCs. Target setting can take different forms. Table 3 and respectively Figure 2 show
five possible ways. Specific targets can be converted into other types of targets by using simple
equations. The review of NDCs carried out for this study showed that base year emission targets andbaseline scenario targets were most frequently used by Parties to define their emissions reduction
ambitions.
Table 3. Ways to express a reduction target

Type oftargetDescription

Reductionin what?

Reduction
relative towhat?
Historical baseyear

Base year A commitment to reduce, or control the increase of,emissions by a specified quantity relative to a historicalemissionsbase year. For example, a 25% reduction from 1990
targetlevels by 2020. These are sometimes referred to as“absolute” targets.
Example: United States’ pledge to reduce emissions
17%below 2005 levels by 2020

Emissions

A commitment to reduce, or control the increase of,emissions to a specified emissions quantity in a target
year/period. Fixed-level target include carbon neutrality
targets or phase-out targets, which aim to reach zero net
emissions by a specified date. For example, zero net
emissions by 2050.
Example: Costa Rica’s pledge of ‘long-term economywide transformational effort to enable carbonneutrality’.

Emissions

No reference
level

Base year A commitment to reduce emissions intensity (emissions
per unit of another variable, typically GDP) by aintensity
specified quantity relative to a historical base year. For
targetexample, a 40% reduction below 1990 base year
intensity by 2020.
Example: China’s pledge to reduce CO2 emissions perunit of GDP 40-45% by 2020 compared with the 2005
level

Emissions
intensity

Historical baseyear

A commitment to reduce emissions by a specified
quantity relative to a projected emissions baseline
scenario. A baseline scenario is a reference case that
represents future events or conditions most likely tooccur in the absence of activities taken to meet the
mitigation target. For example, a 30%reduction frombaseline scenario emissions in 2020. These are

Emissions

Projected
baseline
scenario

FixedleveltargetBaseline
scenario
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BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS – 13

Type oftargetDescription

Reductionin what?

Reduction
relative towhat?

sometimes referred to as business-as-usual or BAU
targets.
Example: Brazil’s pledge to reduce emissions 36.1% to38.9% below projected emissions in 2020
Trajectory A commitment to reduce, or control the increase of,emissions to specified emissions quantities in multiple
targettarget years or periods over a long time period (such as
targets for 2020, 2030, and 2040 over the period 20202050). Trajectory targets also include “peak-anddecline” targets, such as emissions peaking at a
specified level in 2025 and declining thereafter, or a“peak, plateau, and decline” target which additionallyspecifies that emissions will remain constant for aperiod after peaking and before declining.

Emissions

No referencelevel

Source: WRI (2015).

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14 – BACKGROUND TO NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

Figure 2. Ways to express a reduction target

Source: WRI (2015).

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ECONOMY-WIDE AMBITIONS DEFINED IN (I)NDCS - 15

Economy-wide ambitions defined in (I)NDCs
In the wake of COP21 in Paris, the Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT)
updated their analysis of transport commitments mentioned in submitted (I)NDCs (SLoCaT, 2016). The
ITF further updated this analysis in early 2017 in the context of its Decarbonising Transport project (ITF,
2017a) and presented assessment results at its annual summit in Leipzig in May 2017 (ITF, 2017b). The
list of (I)NDCs considered was again updated in November 2017 for this report. More specifically, all
163 NDCs that were registered as of 13 November, 2017 and a further 31 INDCs (of those Parties forwhich respective NDCs had not yet been submitted) were included in the analysis presented in this report(unless stated otherwise). These 194 (I)NDCs represent 193 Parties.

Types of defined targets
Figure 3 shows the types of economy-wide mitigation targets that were defined in Parties’ (I)NDCs.
Most targets are defined as baseline scenario targets, defining the reduction compared to a business-asusual scenario in the year 2030. Only six Parties define the baseline scenario target in comparison to adifferent year (i.e. either 2025, 2035, 2040 or 2050). Base year emission targets are set by 35% of theParties. Here, the base year varies from 1990 (e.g. all EU Member States) to 2014 (e.g. Dominica). 7% of
Parties defined their target in other ways (e.g. South Africa aims to limit emissions to a maximum of 614
MTCO2eq by 2030 (a fixed-level target); Malawi aims to limit CO2eq emissions to 0.7-0.8t per capita in
2030 (fixed intensity target); Mozambique aims to achieve a total reduction of 76.5 MT CO2eq in the
period from 2020 to 2030 (cumulative emissions target)). 15% of the Parties do not define any economywide target in their (I)NDC.

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16 – ECONOMY-WIDE AMBITIONS DEFINED IN (I)NDCS

Figure 3. Types of economy-wide mitigation targets defined by Parties in their (I)NDCs

50%
45%

44%

40%
35%

35%
30%
25%
20%

15%
15%
10%

7%

5%
0%
Baseline scenario
targetBase year emissions
targetOther target typeNo target

Note: (100% = 193 Parties)

Economy-wide ambition levels
In terms of ambition levels, targets are not always represented as a single value, but rather as arange of values or a conditional value (e.g. conditional on finance means made available for developing
nations). This is mostly to have flexibility in operationalising the NDC commitment (SLoCaT, 2016).
With regards to baseline scenario targets, ambition levels range from a reduction of 2- 89% compared to2030 business-as-usual scenario estimates. However, business-as-usual (BAU) scenario estimates for2030 may be more or less ambitious. Some Parties may have decided to account for already planned or
likely CO2 mitigation measures in their BAU scenarios, while others may have not. A direct comparisonof countries’ ambitions on the basis of such provided percentage-reduction values is therefore notconclusive. Base year emission targets are not a straight-forward means to compare across countries, asbase years (and partly also target years) vary.
The UNFCCC secretariat published a synthesis report on the aggregate impact of INDCs on 1
November, 2015. The report became one of the key documents for governments to understand theircollective effort on climate change. It was updated in May 2016 to include all INDCs that had been
submitted by 4 April, 2016 (i.e. 189 (or around 97% of all) Parties to the UNFCCC, with a total CO2
coverage of ca. 95%) (UNFCCC, 2017a) (UNFCCC, 2016).
The report estimates that the implementation of the communicated INDCs results in aggregate
global emission levels of 55.0% (51.4% to 57.3%) GtCO2eq in 2025 and 56.2% (52.0% to 59.3%)
GtCO2eq in 2030. Aside from various uncertainties in the aggregation of the effect of the INDCs, theprovided ranges capture the effect of both unconditional and conditional targets. These levels mean thatcompared with global emission levels in 1990, 2000 and 2010, global aggregate emission levels resulting
from the implementation of INDCs are expected to be higher by 44% (34% to53%) in 2030 in relation to
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ECONOMY-WIDE AMBITIONS DEFINED IN (I)NDCS – 17

the global emission level in 1990. However, global average per capita emissions are expected to decline
by 10% and 5% by 2030 compared with the levels in 1990 and 2010, respectively.
Figure 4 compares the global emission levels resulting from the implementation of the INDCs in
2025 and 2030 with those under pre-INDC reference scenarios and 2°C scenarios. It also shows
pathways for a 1.5°C scenario. It can be seen that the estimated aggregate annual global emission levels
resulting from the implementation of the INDCs do not attain 2°C scenarios by 2025 or 2030. Ambitionlevels defined in INDCs (that are largely identical to the ones then also communicated in the respective
NDCs) need to be intensified over the coming five-year revision cycles to ensure a 2°C or well below
2°C scenario (WB2DS) can be attained.
Figure 4. Comparison of global emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the implementation of theintended nationally determined contributions and under other scenarios (based on INDCs of 189 Parties)

Source: UNFCCC (2016).

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TRANSPORT IN (I)NDCS - 19

Transport in (I)NDCs
Figure 5 provides insight into how (if at all) Parties mentioned the transport sector in their (I)NDCs.
It shows the share of the 193 Parties that (i) mentioned the transport sector in relation to CO2 mitigation
efforts (81%), (ii) proposed (more or less specific) transport mitigation measures (60%), and (iii) defineda specific transport sector CO2 reduction target (10%). It can be seen that the transport sector is largely
acknowledged as relevant source of CO2 and therefore an important sector to focus on when defining
CO2 reduction ambitions and measures. However, the share of Parties that defined specific transportmitigation targets is, with 10%, relatively low. According to SLoCaT (2016), the reason for this lack ofsector-specific targets is that countries often do not allocate emissions targets to specific sectors,
including transport, as they do not have detailed data on the costs and benefits of CO2 mitigation for a
specific sector. As a result, the 2030 targets established in NDCs of most countries are typically ‘only’
economy-wide.
The following sections provide more information on how Parties were identified as providing
transport mitigation measures, and what type of transport mitigation targets were set (if any).
Figure 5. Mentioning of transport in (I)NDCs (100% = 193 Parties)

90%

81%

80%
70%
60%
60%
50%
40%

30%
20%
10%

10%
0%
Parties mentioning transport Parties providing transport
to be relevant for emissions
mitigation 'measures'
mitigation

Parties providing a transportmitigation target

Defined transport mitigation “measures”
The way Parties have defined transport mitigation “measures” (if any) varies. The term is therefore
to be used with care. For example, measures often refers to desired outcomes rather than to actions that
may be implemented to reach those outcomes. In other instances, measures remain vague and at a highlevel only. In some cases, also the mitigation potential of what is classified as ‘measure’ is contestable.
Table 4 provides examples of what has been collectively called “measure” in this analysis (and for

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20 – TRANSPORT IN (I)NDCS

establishing Figure 4), despite the term not being fully appropriate. As shown in Figure 4, 60% of Parties
go beyond only mentioning the transport sector in their (I)NDC and mention at least one transportmitigation “measure” as referred to in this report.
It is to note that Parties were by no means obliged to provide any mitigation measures in their(I)NDCs. Rather, the main purpose of these documents is to provide mitigation targets. Also, countries
may have preferred to refer to more specific (transport) sector plans or programmes in their (I)NDCs,
rather than listing and potentially repeating measures that had already been defined elsewhere. As aresult, an analysis based on submitted (I)NDCs cannot be conclusive with regards to policy measures that
Parties may have already planned, but can only give a rough indication.
Table 4. Examples of what is classified as ‘transport mitigation measure’ in the underlying analysis
Measures that…
Refer to a desired outcome

Example found in one or more (I)NDCs“More efficient vehicles”“Improve the share of public transport”“Advocate use of environmentally friendly forms of transport”

Remain vague / at a high level“Propose efficient transport policies”“Urban transport improvements”“Improve the freight sector through multi-modal options”

Not necessarily lead to CO2
reductions“Building of expressways to relieve congestion”

Can be considered as actual CO2
mitigation measures/actions“Electrification of railway lines”“Introduce fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles”“Extensions of mass rapid transit lines”“Introduce green vehicle procurement policy for government vehicles”

GIZ (2017) has carried out an analysis of the transport mitigation measures (or actions) that areproposed by 149 Non-Annex I Parties (i.e. mostly low-income, developing countries) in their NDCs (seeFigure 6). They conclude that there is a strong focus on fuels, vehicles and urban transport. Freighttransport (i.e. measures with regards to logistics or inter-modal freight transport) has rather been
neglected. It is also highlighted that some measures may be cross-cutting. For example, infrastructure
measures may also benefit (intermodal) freight transport. In practice, measures across the different
transport sectors may therefore be more balanced than indicated in the NDCs.

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TRANSPORT IN (I)NDCS – 21

Figure 6. NDC transport mitigation actions in 149 non-annex I countries

Source: GIZ (2017).

Defined transport mitigation targets
Explicit transport sector mitigation targets were defined by 19 Parties (or 10 %). Figure 7 shows thetype of targets that were defined. Again, most Parties defined baseline scenario targets. They range from
a 3 % GHG reduction by 2030 compared to a Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU) (in Cambodia) to a
42 % reduction GHG reduction compared to 2030 BAU (in Burkina Faso). Base year emission targets
were again defined in reference to different base years (e.g. compared to 2010 by Marshall Islands andGrenada, or compared to 2014 by Dominica).

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Figure 7. Types of transport-sector mitigation targets defined by Parties in their (I)NDCs (100% = 193
Parties)

100%
90%
90%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

6%

3%

1%

0%

Baseline scenario
targetBase year emissions
targetOther target typeNo target

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IMPACT OF TRANSPORT COMMITMENTS IN NDCS - 23

Impact of transport commitments in NDCs
This section assesses the impact of transport commitments in NDCs on global transport-sector GHG
emissions. First, the applied method, using ITF’s transport modelling framework (Box 1), is outlined.
The section thereafter provides results and gives information on how results vary across different regions
and country groups.

Applied assessment method
As mentioned earlier, assessing the impact of transport commitments in NDCs on global transportsector CO2 emissions is not straight-forward. This is because only around 10 % of all Parties indicatedtransport sector-specific CO2 reduction targets that can be directly used for such an assessment. For allother Parties, assumptions regarding their transport sector ambitions had to be inferred from theinformation available in their NDCs. These assumptions may not accurately reflect actual transportsector ambitions of the respective countries. Avoiding such an assumptions-driven assessment would
require more research on, for example, transport-specific policy programmes or plans that may not bementioned in the countries’ NDCs. Such an assessment was, however, out of the scope of this study.
The assessment method established for this study is based on a classification of countries into four
different country groups. For each country group, a distinct method is applied to estimate the likely
transport-sector CO2 reduction ambition of the concerned country.
Figure 8 shows the decision tree that was used to classify the countries into the four country groups
on the basis of the information that is provided in their respective NDCs. It also outlines the applied
assessment method for each of the country groups.

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Figure 8. Decision tree to classify countries into country groups and respective assessment methods

Notes: * See Table 5 for a definition of the different ambition levels and the respective assessment methodologies

More specifically, the assessment methods for the different country groups are as follows:Country group 1 (10% of NDCs): NDCs of countries that fall into this group provide atransport-specific CO2 reduction target. It is assumed that this target will be met. The
achieved transport-sector CO2 reduction of that country is directly derived. Where the target
is defined as reference to a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), it assumed that the baseline
scenario of ITF’s transport modelling framework (Box 1) corresponds to the BAU scenarioof the respective country.

Country group 2 (47% of NDCs): NDCs of the respective countries do not provide a
specific transport CO2 reduction target. However, a set of transport “measures” (Table 4) is
identified that will contribute to transport-sector CO2 reductions if implemented in the
future. For countries that fall into this group, a further sub-classification, depending on an

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IMPACT OF TRANSPORT COMMITMENTS IN NDCS – 25

‘ambition level’, was introduced (Table 5). The ambition level for the respective countries
depends on the exhaustiveness and level of detail of the proposed transport CO2 reduction
measures. The ambition levels were defined by the authors of this study after reviewing alltransport measures proposed in all NDCs included in this assessment: countries with NDCs
that provide a high level of detail and a comprehensive set of transport measures are
assumed to have a ‘high’ ambition level. As a result, transport-sector CO2 reductions are
assumed to be (100%) in line with ITF’s low carbon transport scenario (Box 1). If ambitionlevels are lower (i.e. the proposed measures are less detailed and/or less exhaustive) CO 2
reductions in transport are assumed to be lower than in the in the low carbon scenario (i.e.
ranging from 25% to 75% of the reductions achieved in the low carbon scenario (Table 5).
Country group 3 (22% of NDCs): NDCs of these countries neither provide any transportspecific target, nor any transport mitigation measures. However, they do mention transport
as relevant sector for reducing CO2 emissions and provide an economy-wide CO2 reduction
target. In the absence of any further information regarding the transport sector, it is assumed
that the share of transport sector CO2 emissions will remain stable over time; the economywide CO2 reduction target (e.g. reduction of x% compared to the BAU scenario) is assumed
to apply also to the transport sector and to be achieved by 2030.

Country group 4 (21% of NDCs): NDCs of these countries either do not mention thetransport sector (19%), or do not provide any further detail on a specific transport-sector
target, transport mitigation measures, or an economy-wide target (2%). In the absence ofany such further information, it is assumed that transport-sector emissions will grow in linewith the respective countries’ baseline scenarios.

Table 5 shows that the transport ambition levels of countries that fall into country group 2 arejudged to be moderate (i.e. they are either low or medium for more than 70% of all countries that fall intothat group).
Table 5. Ambition levels for NDCs that fall into country group 2
Ambition level

Share of total incountry group 2

1

Low

42%

2

Medium31%

3

Mediumhigh

19%

4

High

8%

Description

Applied method

Very vague and/or very limited
measures (e.g. introduction ofvehicle efficiency standards only)

Apply 25% of the reductions of
ITF’s Low Carbon (LC)Scenario (compared to its
baseline scenario)
Apply 50% of the reductions of
ITF’s LC scenario
Apply 75% of the reductions of
ITF’s LC scenario
Apply 100% ITF’s LC scenario

Increasingly ambitious

Specifiedmeasurescovering
most/all modes of transport (e.g.
combination of vehicle efficiency,
public transport and mode shiftmeasures, incl. land-use planningconsiderations)

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Box 1. ITF’s modelling framework and transport scenarios
ITF Transport modelling framework: The ITF has developed a set of modelling tools to build its own
forward-looking scenarios of transport activity. Covering all modes of transport, freight and passenger, the tools are
unified under a single framework. In contrast to existing transport and energy models, the ITF framework firstestimates the demand for transport, based on a set of socio-economic drivers (population, Gross Domestic Product,
trade, etc.) before analysing the way this demand may be satisfied. This second step includes a detailed modellingof mode choice. Finally, the models compute the CO2 emissions linked to transport and, depending on the sector,
other transport-related variables. The framework can assess the effect of a large range of policies and exogenous
impacts. In all models, policies which may impact transport demand or the related CO2 emissions become input
parameters.
Baseline scenario: The baseline scenario is a projection of current transport trends and includes current
policies and policy developments.
Low-carbon scenario: The low-carbon scenario corresponds to the aggregation of the least CO2-intensive
pathways for each transport sector. It results from the combination of the most optimistic scenario from all modes
and points to a lower bound for CO2 emissions for 2050 with currently foreseen technology and mode choice
trajectories. It assumes higher efficiency gains for all vehicles, higher fuel taxes, full benefits of vehicle
optimisation for road freight and land use and public transport planning in the urban sector.
Source: ITF (2017)

Global results
Figure 9 provides global national-level transport CO2 emissions projections for the ITF baseline
scenario, for the ITF low carbon scenario (Box 1) and the ‘NDC scenario’ (established on the basis of theassumptions/methodology provided in the previous section). It also provides the International Energy
Agency’s (IEA) two degree scenario (2DS), which provides the transport CO2 emissions levels thatshould be reached by 2030 to limit of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C with atleast a 50% chance. It can be seen that the NDC scenario is estimated to bring transport CO2 emissions
by 2030 to around the level of 2015. However, the estimated transport CO2 reduction ambitions of the
NDC scenario (a reduction of around 1 300 MT CO2 compared to the baseline) are insufficient to meetthe emissions trajectory of the 2DS scenario (and let alone a WB2DS). They also fail to achieve theemissions reductions that would, according to ITF estimations for the low-carbon scenario, betechnologically feasible up to 2030 (by around 900 MT CO2).

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IMPACT OF TRANSPORT COMMITMENTS IN NDCS – 27

Figure 9. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by scenario

8 000Milliion tonnes CO2

7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0

Baseline scenario NDC scenario
(ITF)
2015

2DS
(IEA)

Low carbon
scenario
(ITF)

2030

Results by region
Figures 10 and 11 show the above results by region. It can be seen that the biggest growth intransport CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2030 is expected to happen in Asia. However, if estimated
NDC reduction ambitions can be materialised, CO2 levels in 2030 in Asia are close projections of the
low-carbon scenario. Also Latin America has ambitions that come close to the low-carbon scenario. The
ambitions of other regions come less close to the respective regions’ transport CO 2 reduction potentials
as estimated in the low-carbon scenario.

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Figure 10. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by scenario and region (I)

AsiaOECD PacificNorth America
Middle East

EEA + Turkey
AfricaLatin America
Transition

Baseline scenario

NDC scenario
2030

Low-carbon scenario

8 000Million tonnes CO2

7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
2015

Notes: Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa; Asia: south and east non-OECD Asia; European Economic Area
(EEA) and Turkey: EU28 and Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, and non-EU Nordic (Iceland); Latin America: South America and
Mexico; Middle East: Middle East including Israel; North America: United States and Canada; OECD Pacific: Australia, Japan,
New Zealand, and South Korea; Transition: former soviet countries and Non-EU Southeastern Europe.

Figure 11. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by scenario and region (II)2030 Baseline

2030 NDC scenario

2030 Low carbon scenario

3 500

Million tonnes CO2

3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000

500
0

Asia

North
America

EEA +TurkeyLatin
America

OECD
Pacific

MiddleEast

AfricaTransition

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IMPACT OF TRANSPORT COMMITMENTS IN NDCS – 29

Results by income group
Figures 12 and 13 show results by county income group - countries were grouped into four different
groups (low, upper middle, lower middle, and low income) according to their Gross National Income percapita (in US$) in 2015 (World Bank, 2017).
High income and upper middle income countries were responsible for the main share of transport
CO2 emissions in 2015. This will continue up to 2030 in all scenarios. Especially upper middle income
countries are projected to increase their transport CO2 emissions in the baseline scenario (by around
1 000 MT) in the period from 2015 to 2030. However, also their CO2 reduction intentions as estimatedfrom their NDCs appear to be more ambitious than for the other income groups – their CO2 reduction
ambitions come close to the projected reduction potentials of the low-carbon scenario.
Figure 12. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by scenario and income group (I)High income (H)Lower middle income (LM)Upper middle income (UM)Low income (L)

8 000Million tonnes CO2

7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
-

Baseline scenario
2015

NDC scenario
2030

Low-carbon scenario

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30 – IMPACT OF TRANSPORT COMMITMENTS IN NDCS

Figure 13. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by scenario and income group (II)2030 Baseline

2030 NDC scenario

2030 Low carbon scenario

High income

Upper middle income Lower middle income

4 000Million tonnes CO2

3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0

Low income

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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - 31

Summary and conclusions
This report gives first an introduction to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and provides
an overview of economy-wide CO2 reduction targets that were defined in these pledges. It then assesses
the impact of transport commitments provided in NDCs on national-level transport CO2 emissions. Given
the often limited information in NDCs concerning transport-sector ambitions and planned CO2 mitigation
measures, an assessment methodology was set up that is based on several assumptions. Countries are
clustered into four different groups based on transport-related information provided in the NDCs; foreach group a distinct method was established to estimate the impact of transport CO 2 mitigation
actions/ambitions that are (more or less clearly) defined in the countries’ respective NDCs. The methods
are based on the use of ITF’s transport modelling framework and their baseline and low-carbon
scenarios.
Results of the assessment show that the estimated ‘NDC scenario’ projects global national-level
CO2 emissions in 2030 to attain a similar as in 2015 (reflecting a reduction of CO 2 emissions of around
1400 MT CO2 compared to a baseline scenario). However, achieving a two-degree scenario (2DS) would
require further reductions of around 600 MT CO2. To attain the level of the low-carbon scenario (ascenario that results from the combination of the most optimistic scenario from all modes and points to alower bound for CO2 emissions with currently foreseen technology and mode choice trajectories) further
reductions of around 800 MT CO2 would be required.
Results by region show that especially Asian, upper-middle income countries are planning to exploit
most of the currently foreseeable transport CO2 reduction potential (as per the low-carbon scenario).
Other regions appear to leave some of the CO2 mitigation potential unused up to 2030. Especially thetransport CO2 reductions ambitions of such countries need to be intensified to ensure that the “Wellbelow 2 degree” ambition, as defined at COP21 in Paris in 2015, can be achieved.

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REFERENCES - 33

References
CDKN (2016), Planning for NDC Implementation - Quick Start Guide and Reference Manual; Climate
and Development Knowledge Network.
IPMM (2014), Process guidance for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs); Knowledge
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ITF (2017a), Decarbonising Transport, https://www.itf-oecd.org/decarbonising-transport
ITF (2017b), ITF in focus session – Decarbonising Transport,
https://2017.itf-oecd.org/decarbonising-transport
ITF (2017c), ITF Transport Outlook 2017, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789282108000-en
NDC Registry, (2017) : http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/Home.aspx
SLoCaT (2016), Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs) Offer Opportunities for Ambitious
Action on Transport and Climate Change,
http://www.ppmc-transport.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/NDCs-Offer-Opportunities-forAmbitious-Action-Updated-October-2016.pdf
UNFCCC (2017a), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); United Nations Framework
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Indicators) GNI per capita in US$ (Atlas methodology).
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Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement
Reviewing the Impact of Nationally Determined Contributions

International Transport Forum
2 rue André Pascal
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2018-04/Photo Credit: shutterstock - Kurilenko Katya

This report assesses the impact of transport commitments made in
the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Climate
Agreement on national-level transport CO2 emissions. It contains
an introduction to NDCs and provides an overview of economy-wide
CO2 reduction targets that were defined in these pledges. The
methodology, developed specifically for this report, allows a sectoral
assessment despite the often limited information regarding specificambitions for transport and planned CO2 mitigation measures.