High Speed Rail in India-a perspective
after a decade of Planning
Anjali Goyal
Adviser, Planning Commission
19th December 2013

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

India needs a National Policy on HSR
Public Debate- a Railway Project or a new Mode of Transport
Legislation –Act of Parliament and State legislatures covering– Definition of High Speed– Corridor Selection criteria– Commercial intent, Subsidies to HSR– Government levies and grants
Need to position HSR- beyond a faster train service - Urbanizationand Regional Development through Railways expansion and speedupgrades, High end industrialization based on Advanced RailTechnology
Technology Acquisition Policy
Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

HSR- A complex mix of State of the Art
Technology
Hi-TechInfrastructure ( civilengineering works,track, catenary)

Rolling stock(technology,comfort, design)

Signalling systems

Stations (location,functional design,equipment)

Operations (designand planning,control, rules)

Maintenance policy
and systems

EACH COMPONENT MUST HARMONIZE

Complex Financing

Multiple RevenueStreams Marketing
Strategies

Legal MattersComplex PatentIssues

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Block I: HSR Technology Leaders,Techno-Commercial Innovators
Objective:Domestic Mode of Transport,- eyeon Innovation Mercantilism
Exclusive Residency of Technology
Leadership,
Commercial Success –Robust Domestic
Manufacturing Industry base
Export of Product/Projects
Nurture own GDP

Method: Develop Nation Wide Network,
Established HSR Technology Residency
Commercial Success –Built up National Wealth through Export,
Retained Technology Leadership through R&D?
Japan
1964*
Germany
1985

France1967

Italy
1988

China
2002

Spain2002

S. Korea
2004

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Block II: Smaller players with Techno
Commercial Appetite but HSR for EU access
Objective: Access to EU – International
Connectivity within EU and pass throughdomestic network with an eye on smaller
degree of Techno- Commercialism by a few
countries like Austria, Netherlands

Austria

NorwayTurkey

SwedenNetherland

PolandMethod: Adopt HSR only to gain accesstoEU/
Establish Limited Domestic Network as a throughtransport mode

Belgium

GreeceCopyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

SwitzerlandPortugal

Block III: HSR only as Transport Mode throughprocurement of projects
TaiwanObjective: Limited Domestic Corridors- No
Technology capabilities, No Techno- Commercial
ambitionsS.
ArabiaBrazilMalaysia
Thailand

INDIA

Method: Buy and Operate mode
Mostly at various Stages of Planning
MoroccoCopyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

National Technology Acquisition and Residency
policyQuest for Advanced Rail Technology will require Targeted increase in contribution of Science & Technology to Economic
Growth (GDP) and share of High Tech in Manufacturing Industries
 Techno- Nationalism Driven Active role of Central Govt - catching Up withFrontier Technologies of desired areas/sectors
 Stated National Technology Policy - supports absorption and diffusion ofacquired foreign Technology-Stated policy on Localization- target phased 80%
share in joint ventures, designated Nationally Accredited Design Institutions
 Support Policy for indigenous innovation
 Pro-Active Role of Central Govt in Tech Transfers, Patents, R&D benefits andsupport for selected priority Sector Industries

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

CONCLUSIONS
Conventional investment models variables like travel
demand forecasting, money value for time, inter modaltransport shifts, ridership revenues etc. fail to capture
the complexities of HSR. Can give misleading results
and make for very costly mistakes
These models also fail to capture the transformational
impact of HSR on economic activities and regions.
Committed Funding has long been seen as the only
hurdle to HSR in India. Even funding requires a policy.

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Thank you

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Public Debate on HSR- lessons fromUSA
US Government needs to state the Rationale for HSR in USAneed to develop a written strategic vision for high-speed rail- rolehigh-speed rail systems in national transportation system.
 Identify potential objectives and goals for HSR
 Roles federal and other stakeholders
 Guidance on Methods for reliability of ridership/ viabilityforecasts
 b) There is need for long-term dedicated funding with Federal backing asprotection from changing political priorities.
 c) The FRA must assess total cost commitments and detailed financial plans
with committed sources of funding must be addressed.
 d) FRA will face intense political pressure to spread funds country wide- thus
the need for transparent, objective criteria for selection of only worthy corridors
Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

2011- 53 Million Plus Cities

Three 10
million+ cities
Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

2031: Six 10 Million+ cities

Urban India 2011: Evidence.
November 22, 2011. Indian
Institute for Human Settlements

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Geographic and Economic Rebalancing ofprovincial Growth
1979:19%2009: 47% pop Urban (622 million)
2011: 51%
2030: 67%
Massive Rural Urban Migration

Coal,
Minerals,Oil, Wind
Farming,
Milk

Coal,
Gas, oil,
Tourism,
Industry

Agriculture,
Timber,Autos,Petrochemicals

Rice,
Tea,
IndustryThree Gorges Dam,
Agriculture,
Automobiles

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

In 1982 the only city considered by the Texas
Transportation Institute to be congested was LosAngeles. By 2005, 27 additional cities met suchcriteria. The image illustrates that much of theNational Highway System, even on intercity routes,
is anticipated to be congested during peak periodsby 2035 without significant infrastructural
improvements

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

US DOT Federal Railroad Administration Map

Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior written consent of the author

HSR Nations- UIC 2013 (http://uic.asso.fr/IMG/pdf/20130701_high_speed_lines_in_the_world.pdf)
Austria
Belgium
FranceGermany
Italy
Netherlands
PolandSpain
Switzerland
UK
China
Japan
TaiwanSouth Korea
TurkeySaudi Arabia

MoroccoIn
Under
Operation Construction Planned
Total
Max Speed
93
250
209
260/300
2036
757
2407
5200
320
1334
428
495
2257
250/300
923
395
1318
250/300
120
300
712
300
2515
1308
1702
5525
250/300
35
72
107
250
113
204
317
300/360
9760
9081
3777
22618
200/350
2664
779
179
3622
260/320
345
345
300
412
186
49
647
300

444

603
550
200

1758

2805
550

480

680
Portugal USA and India- intent expressed but10061006
Russia650
650
unable to take a decision- on
Sweden
750
750
Technology Acquisition or Network
India
495
495
expansion benefits
Brazil
511
511
USA
777
777
Copyright 2013 – Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without priorwritten consent of
the author
21715
13964
15635
50180

250
300
300
250/350
300

300
250
300300