Forest Reference Levels
and REDD+ results
submitted to theUNFCCC;
An overview

Marieke Sandker
FREL/FRL lead REDD+ FAO
February 2019• Global overview• How were FRELs created?
• Looking into REDD+ results• How do the FRL and NDC
relateGlobal progress

Warsaw framework is thestarting point for
FREL/FRL submissions tothe UNFCCC
2006-2010

Global progressRepresenting a forest area of 1.5 billion haand 70% of worldwide deforestation

Objective FREL/FRL submission?

Several objectives but most countries
aspire results-based payments

20132017

What activities are included?

0%REDD

Deforestation
Degradation
Enhancement

Plus

SMF
Conservation

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

How was deforestation assessed?

How was associated EF assessed?

Of 44 countries which submitted a FREL/FRL: Most countries use NFI to assess EF
 96% of countries use inventory data

No NFINFI currently being
established
NFI

How was degradation assessed?
Method​ology

Country​

Combination of RS and ground inventories​

Cambodia, Chile, Indonesia

Combination of RS and ground inventories​ +multiple NFI cycles
Combination of RS and ground inventories + stumpcounts from NFI
Official timber extraction statistics​

Viet Nam

MODIS burned area and IPCC default values​

Ghana*​, Chile

Comparison of permanent sample plots​(Mexico, Uganda – in annexonly)

Lao People’s Democratic
Republic*
Congo, Ghana*,​ Guyana,Suriname*
Sample data interpretation of disturbance or
Mongolia*, Panama*, Papuachanges in forest subdivisions and ground
New Guinea, Nicaragua,
inventories
Solomon Islands
Modelling supply–demand balance (WISDOM)​
Ghana*, Nepal
Landscape fragmentation GUIDOS (with EF from NFI) Nepal-ERPD
Proxy statistics (monitoring log truck numbers)​
Ghana*FRL Uncertainty reporting

Percentage of FRL submissions reporting
AD uncertainties
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Uncertainty
reporting FRL,AD and EF

FAO support for MRVCloud based platform for improving data access, processing, anddelivery of satellite data to enable autonomous land monitoringcapacity• Create composites / mosaics of Landsat and Sentinel• Process RADAR data
• Classification and change detection• Image segmentation• Time-series analysis• Sample-based area estimation• Compliant with GFOI Methods and GuidanceStock take of REDD+ results

Stock take of REDD+ results

Country
Brazil (Amazon) A
Colombia
EcuadorMalaysia I
Brazil (Amazon) B
Chile (subnat)
Colombia
Indonesia
Paraguay

Results ('000 tCO2)
2,971,022
28,98428,99097,4703,154,502
19,362
31,475244,892
26,7936.603 bln tCO2Results period
2006–20102013-2014
2009–2014
2006-20102011–20152014-20162015-20162013-20172016-2017

Stock take of REDD+ results

6.60 bln tCO2 ERs

1.58 bln tCO2 ERs (2014-2018)
Currently contains $$ for
100,000 tCO2 ERs

REDD+ activities contributing to ERs

REMOVING BRAZIL
REDD+ activities contributing to ERs

deforestation
degradation

enhancement
conservation
SMF

How do FRLs and NDCs relate?

Results/target
expressed against:

REDD+NDC

Reference level(usually historicalaverage)

 Business-as-usual projection GHG
inventory Base year Absolute targets e.g. “plant 1 million
ha by 2030”
Results period

Usually next 5 years

Mostly the year 2030

Mostly conditional

Conditional and unconditional

Key challenges•

Country data and the quality of submissions need toimprove overtime to meet donor expectations for payment•

Further investment in REDD+ MRV readiness is necessary
to improve country data, cover additional activities andfacilitate broad country participation in REDD+•

The link between results reported and REDD+
implementation needs to be clear
Key next step:
Maintain momentum, overcome barriers,
scale up REDD+ action.

Thank you!

Useful publications!

From reference levels to results reporting:reference levels under the UNFCCC 2018 update
http://www.fao.org/3/CA0176EN/ca0176en.pdf

Challenges with measurement and accounting of
the Plus in REDD+
http://www.climateandlandusealliance.org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/10/Challenges-withmeasuring-and-accounting-of-the-Plus-in-REDD1.pdf