PAVING THE WAY TOWARDS
FUTURE ATM.
A wide range for research.

 Contents:◦ ATM role: 4D Trajectory Management.
◦ The starting line: SES/SESAR and NextGen.
◦ Paradigm shift in ATM in the long term.
◦ Focus on ATM invariant processes.
◦ The meaning of 4D Trajectory Management, planninglayers.
◦ Overall system performance as main driver for theparadigm change.
◦ The three interdependent dimensions for theparadigm change.
◦ The upper line: Imagination.
◦ ATM main research areas.
◦ Conclusions.

 It is commonly recognised that 4D

trajectories management in a safety andefficient manner has been always the goal of
the ATM. And it will be the basis for thefuture ATM system eliminating or overcoming
the capacity limitations derived from a humancentre concept of operation.

In order to fully meet the safety, capacity and otherperformance targets of the foresee ATM System in
2020/2025 several parading shifts are required.
◦ 1.- Shift from airspace – based operation towards a
trajectory – based operation concept. Aims to ensure that
the Airspace User flies its trajectory close to its intent in themost efficient.
◦ 2.- Shift from tactical management towards a morestrategic system, implementing different planning layers
where decision about trajectories can be taken in advanceto accommodate user needs, de-conflict trajectories andreduce us much as possible human tactical intervention
over the aircraft.
◦ 3.- Shift from a controller based system towards a more
distributed system on which decision about aircraft
trajectories could be taken by the actor that is best place ateach moment and each scenario to take such decision.

CHANGES DRIVENBY OVERALLSYSTEMPERFORMANCE

4D TRAJECTORYMANAGEMENT(ANTICIPATEDCONTROL,COMPENSATORYCONTROL)

Lets consider ATM system is constituted by a set of invariant
process:“the core processes that are the essential components in making
ATM work.”: separation assurance, flights efficiency, aerodrome
constrains.

Invariant process can havedifferent instantiations
depending on the:◦ role of the actors,◦ operational concepts
drivers,◦ supporting technology,◦ level of automation,…
When trying to answer
these principal questions
others related questions
will pop up.

ATMinvariant 1

ATMinvariant 2

Role ofthe actors

TechnologyATMATM
process 1process 2ATMATM
process 1
process 2ATMATM
process 1
process 2
ATMATM
process 1
process 2ATMinvariant n

AutomationATM
process n 1
ATMprocess n 1
ATMprocess n 1
ATM
Instantiation x
process n 1
Instantiation x
Instantiation x

Variation inautomation

Instantiation x

Working with what is planned to happen: Trajectory planning: Centralised
Management?
Working with what is actually happening: Trajectory Tracking:Autonomous Management?

TargetingSituation assessment
Current understanding

Plans/Objectives

Goals/Targets

Tracking

AnticipatedcontrolInformation

Monitoring

Regulating

Goals/Targets

Situation assessment

Plans/ObjectivesActions/Target values

Measurements/Feedback
Actions/Target values

Compensatory
control

Corrective actions
Figure taken from Erik Hollnagel Best placed actor would take the best decision ateach moment and in each scenario.
 Automation at the right function and at the rightlevel is required element to eliminate or
overcome the capacity limitations derived from ahuman centre concept of operation.
 New role for the different actors in the long term
future ATM is, even today, a matter of conceptual
proposals; impact on overall system performance
should be the main driver.

 First dimension “best time” for decision

making: Strategic vs. tactical planning layer.
 Second dimension “decision place”: centricvs. autonomy.
 Third dimension “best player”: Human vs.
automated player.

AS ATM PROCESSES, AT
DIFFERENT PLANNING
LAYERS, WILL HAVE FEEDBACK
TO ABSORB UNEXPETEDCHANGES:STRATEGIC(Target) VS.
TACTICAL(Tracking)CENTRIC VS.
AUTONOMYHUMAN VS.
MACHINE In broad sense the upper limit for innovation

should only be limited by the human’s
imagination. Maintaining this principle; theresulting proposals have to be translated tothe ATM context using open mind criteria. To
transpose any of these innovative initiatives
to the ATM context some “as realistic asneeded” a set of analysis and/or trials have tobe developed.

STRATEGICVERSUSTACTICALTechnical
Support:Automation
Complexity

SocialImpact:Economic
Legal

4D
TRAJECTORYMANAGEMENTCENTRICSYSTEMSNEW ROLES
VERSUSASSIGNMENTAIRCRAFTAUTONOMY Legacy in ATM limits the vision that could takeadvantage of the available technology.
 Long term ATM changes should be based on theoverall system performance.
 The vision shall be that ATM is mainly related to4D trajectories management, involving invariantprocesses.
 Based on 4D trajectories management, researchareas must be oriented to find out the bestanswer to these three main questions:◦ Strategic versus tactical?,◦ Centric systems versus aircraft autonomy? and◦ New roles assignment?