RiskChanges - An Open Source Tool
for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessmentand Decision Making
Dr. Manzul Kumar Hazarika

Director, Geoinformatics Center, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
manzul@ait.asia
With inputs fromProf. Cees van Westen
Mr. Ashok Dahal
ITC, University of Twente, Netherlands

Spatial Representation of Multi-Hazard Risk
Environmental Factors
Geology
Soil
Land-use
Topography
Hydrology

Triggering Factors

Hazard Inventory

Elements at Risk

RainfallVolcanic Eruption
Earthquake
Atm. Depression

Landslide
Flood
Drought
CycloneEarthquake

Buildings
Infrastructures
Population
Critical FacilitiesLifelines

Socio-Economic Factors
Livelihoods
Literacy
GenderPoverty
CultureSpatio-Temporal Probability

Hazard & Exposure(Probability of occurrence)x

Vulnerability(Degree of losses to elements-at-risk)

HazardVulnerabilityx

Amount/Number(Quantification of exposed elements)

Elements-at-risk

Damage (%)

Risk =

5 1025 100
Flood Depth or Intensity

Mapping
Flood DepthExposure

Modeling + GIS

Overlay of hazard & element at risk

RS + GIS

2

Multi-Hazard Risk Portal - Tajikistan
http://tajirisk.ait.ac.th/

Portal• Risk profiles per administrative unit• Querying hazard, exposure, loss and risk information
Further Requirements• A risk assessment tool is required in-house;• Data updating at local level;• Future risk scenarios

3Motivation for Developing RiskChanges
Short-comings in existing risk assessment tools:

Examples:• Non-availability of a true multi-hazard risk
assessment software in opensource;• Often too complex and data intensive;• Many of them are country or region specific;• Often lacking multi-hazard interactions;• Often lacking future scenarios and risk
reduction alternatives.

4Workflow in RiskChanges

Data Input:• Hazard Maps
• Elements at risk Maps
• Vulnerability Curves

Exposure Analysis

Loss Analysis

Risk Analysis• Annual Average Loss (AAL)

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Elements-at-Risk Module

6

Elements-at-Risk ModulePoints• Critical facilities.
Lines• Roads, utility lines (electricity, water etc.)
Building footprints• Government, residential, commercial etc.
Land parcels• Urban, agriculture, forest etc.

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Hazard Module8

Hazard Module - Debris Flow

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Hazard Module - Debris Flow and Flood

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Vulnerability Module

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Vulnerability Module - Vulnerability Curves

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Risk Assessment and Risk Reduction Alternatives
Alternatives

Measures

Alternative 1:
Engineering measures for:Engineering solutions · Slope stabilization(Reinforcements)· Flood risk reduction(Embankments, storage tanks)
Alternative 2:
Ecological solutions

Alternative 3:
Relocation

Hazard changes

Risk changes

YES

PARTLYYESPARTLYNO

YES· Ecological measures for:· Slope stabilization(plantation)· Water harvesting structures· Compensation, environmental
and social safeguards etc.

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Decision Making – Risk Informed PlanningNo risk reduction

Alternative 1:
Engineering solutions

Alternative 2:Ecological solutions

Alternative 3:Relocation

2014

2020

2030

2040

14

Conclusions• Multi-hazard risk assessment is the first and foremost requirement foridentifying and prioritizing for risk reduction efforts;• Existing risk assessment tools have limitations in terms of availability,useability, and complexity;• RiskChanges is expected to address these issues and provide anopportunity for risk-informed planning and development.

1Thank you for your kind attention