ISSN 1728-5445

SERIESSTUDIES AND PERSPECTIVES

115

ECLAC SUBREGIONAL
HEADQUARTERS
FOR THE CARIBBEAN

Economic Surveyof the Caribbean 2022
Dillon Alleyne
Michael Hendrickson
Sheldon McLean
Machel Pantin
Nyasha SkerretteThank you for your interest in
this ECLAC publication

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115

Economic Survey of
the Caribbean 2022

Dillon Alleyne
Michael Hendrickson
Sheldon McLean
Machel Pantin
Nyasha SkerretteThis document was prepared by Dillon Alleyne, Deputy Director of the Economic Commission for Latin America andthe Caribbean (ECLAC) subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, and by Sheldon McLean, Coordinator of
the Economic Development Unit, Michael Hendrickson, Economic Affairs Officer, Machel Pantin, Associate Economic
Affairs Officer, and Nyasha Skerrette, Economic Affairs Assistant, all of the same office.
The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization or the countries it represents.

United Nations publication
ISSN: 1728-5445 (electronic version)
ISSN: 1727-9917 (print version)
LC/TS.2023/6
LC/CAR/TS.2023/1
Distribution: L
Copyright © United Nations, 2023
All rights reserved
Printed at United Nations, Santiago
S.22-01297
This publication should be cited as: D. Alleyne and others, “Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2022”, Studies and Perspectives seriesECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, No. 115 (LC/TS.2023/6-LC/CAR/TS.2023/1), Santiago, Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2023.
Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, publicaciones.cepal@un.org. Member States
and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention thesource and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction.

ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Contents

Abstract................................................................................................................................................ 5I.

Global and subregional performance ........................................................................................ 7
A. Global analysis and performance......................................................................................... 7
B. Caribbean growth performance and prospects ....................................................................8
C. Unemployment ................................................................................................................. 10

II.

Fiscal and debt performance ................................................................................................... 13
A. Fiscal ................................................................................................................................. 13
B. Debt .................................................................................................................................. 14
C. Debt Service Payments ..................................................................................................... 15

III.

Monetary Policy and Prices ..................................................................................................... 17
A. Money supply and credit ................................................................................................... 18
B. Inflation............................................................................................................................. 19IV.

External sector developments ................................................................................................ 21
A. Tourism arrivals ................................................................................................................. 21
B. Current account ................................................................................................................ 23
C. Foreign Direct Investment .................................................................................................24

V.

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 27

Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................29
Studies and Perspectives series - The Caribbean Series: issues published ............................................ 30

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

TablesTable 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5Global economic performance and prospects, 2020–2022 ...........................................8
Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019–2022 ................................................................... 9
Caribbean GDP growth rates index, 2019–2022 ......................................................... 10
Unemployment rates, 2014–2021 .............................................................................. 11
Foreign direct investment inflows, 2021 .................................................................... 25

FiguresFigure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9Overall fiscal deficit, 2017–2021 ................................................................................. 14
Total public debt, 2021 .............................................................................................. 15
Total debt service 2021 .............................................................................................. 16
M2 and domestic credit to the private and public sector, 2017–2021 ......................... 18
Inflation and West Texas intermediate oil prices, Jan 2021–Mar 2022........................ 19
Year-on-year growth in tourism stay-over arrivals, 2020–2021 ..................................22
Year-on-year growth in cruise ship arrivals, 2020–2021 ............................................. 23
Current account balance, 2021 ..................................................................................24
Year-on-year change in foreign direct investment inflows, 2021................................ 25

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ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Abstract

This survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2021 and the firstfew months of 2022 and comprises five chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regionaland subregional economic performance in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of thesubregion’s fiscal performance and debt burden. The third looks at monetary policy and their impacts.
The fourth is focused on the external sector, while the fifth concludes.

5ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

I.

Global and subregional performanceA.

Global analysis and performance

The global economy returned to positive growth in 2021, as the development and roll out of vaccines
and a gradual easing of restrictions led to improved performance. This worldwide optimism, however,
was tempered in early 2022 due to the onset of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. This war has heightened
supply side constraints, arising from global supply chain disruption, increased energy, grain and foodprices in general and escalated inflation, which was very low in the first year of the pandemic. The
consequences have been very negative for the global economic recovery.
To address the inflationary effects and rising expectations, Central Banks in developed countries
have been raising interest rates to put pressure on demand and to eventually cool inflationary
expectations. The United States Federal reserve policy of raising interest, has appreciated the US dollar
relative to other countries. While fighting inflation has emerged as the major macroeconomic priority,
the downside is a fall in real investment, a decline in real incomes especially among the poor andvulnerable in all countries and an increase in fiscal stress for countries that were already in debt distress,
due to COVID-19 related expenditures.
Under-tightening of inflationary policies, would further entrench the inflation process, erode thecredibility of central banks, and increase inflation expectations. As is well known, this would only
increase the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control. Over-tightening risks pushing the global
economy into an unnecessarily harsh recession. The policy prescription is to be very surgical with
inflation reduction, but with a lack of global policy coordination this is difficult (IMF 2022). It is
anticipated that global inflation will peak in late 2022 but will remain elevated for longer than previously
expected, probably until 2024.
The role of China is crucial in stimulating global trade at the moment, however, the frequent lockdowns
under its zero COVID policy have taken a toll on the economy, especially in the second quarter of 2022.

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

In addition, the property sector, representing about one-fifth of economic activity in China, is rapidly
weakening. Given the size of China’s economy and its importance for global supply chains, this will
weigh heavily on global trade and activity.
Turning to the global economic performance and prospects, the impact of the pandemic on the
global economy is clear as global growth was -3% in 2020 and jumped to 6% in 2021. All major countries
and regions grew positively in 2021, with the most outstanding being India and China with growth ratesof 8.7 and 8.1%, respectively. The growth of the United States was lower at 5.7%. As in the global
financial crisis of 2008–2009 the emerging and developing economies grew by 6.0% which was higher
than the growth of 5.2% among advanced economies. Latin America and the Caribbean, which usuallybrings up the rear, grew by 6.5%.
Growth prospects for the World economy in 2022 is forecasted at a mere 3.2% coming on theheels of the conflict in Ukraine. China, which is beset with new COVID-19 outbreaks and supply chain
issues will see a mere 3.2% growth, while India will grow by 6.8%. Advanced economies will grow by
2.4% and emerging and developing economies, the main drivers of world output will grow by 3.7%.
Table 1
Global economic performance and prospects, 2020–2022(Percentages)
2020

2021

2022

Advanced economies

-4.4

5.2

2.4

Emerging market and developing countries

-1.9

6.6

3.7

Euro area

-6.1

5.2

3.1

Latin America and the Caribbean

-6.9

6.5

2.7

China

2.2

8.1

3.2

India

-6.6

8.7

6.8

United States

-3.4

5.7

1.6

World

-3.0

6.0

3.2

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2022; Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean.
Note: Projections for 2022.

B.

Caribbean growth performance and prospects

Turning now to the Caribbean, most countries in the region experienced positive growth in 2021. The
Caribbean average growth was 5.1%, with the goods producers growing at 3.8% and the service
producers at 6.5%. The emerging juggernaut in the Caribbean is now Guyana with its vast oil reservesand considerable growth rates of 18.5% in 2021. As a result the Caribbean excluding Guyana grew by
3.5%. When Guyana is also excluded from among the good producers growth rate was -0.3%. This
negative growth is due to the declines in Trinidad and Tobago of -0.5% and Suriname of -2.8%. Despite
the elevated prices for goods, including hydrocarbons, Trinidad and Tobago has not been able tocapitalize on this and Suriname is going through a period of economic restructuring. With respect toservices, all the economies except Saint Kitts and Nevis (-3.8%) experienced positive growth. The
opening of the tourism markets saw improved performance among this group and growth varies
between 13.7% (The Bahamas) to 0.5% Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Despite the war in Ukraine and the inflationary effects it is projected that growth will be positive
among the countries of the subregion in 2022. For the Caribbean as a whole growth is anticipated to be

8ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

some 10.4% while the goods and service producers will grow by 15.5% and 5.4% respectively. When
Guyana is excluded from among the regional economies growth falls to 4.6% and 3.5% among thegoods producers. Guyana’s growth is anticipated to be as high as 52% in 2022. Among the other goods
producers Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to grow by 1.5% and 3.7% respectively.
Turning to the service producers, growth is expected to vary between 13.7% (Anguilla) and 2.7% Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines.
Table 2
Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019–2022(Percentages)
2019

2020

2021

2022a

Anguilla

5.5

-29.9

11.1

13.7

Antigua and Barbuda

4.9

-20.2

5.3

7.5

Bahamas

1.9

-23.8

13.7

8.5

Barbados

-0.7

-14.0

0.7

5.9

Belize

2.0

-16.7

9.8

5.8

Dominica

5.5

-16.6

6.5

5.7

Grenada

0.7

-13.8

5.7

3.7

Guyana

5.4

43.5

18.5

52.0

Jamaica

0.9

-9.9

4.6

2.8

Monserrat

7.0

-5.3

8.0

4.4

Saint Kitts and Nevis

4.2

-14.2

-3.9

5.0

Saint Lucia

-0.1

-20.4

7.0

8.0

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

0.4

-5.3

0.7

2.7

Suriname

1.1

-15.9

-2.8

1.5

Trinidad and Tobago

-0.2

-7.4

-0.5

3.7

The Caribbean

1.1

-9.2

5.1

10.4

Goods Producers

0.9

-1.6

3.8

15.5

Service Producers

1.3

-15.9

6.5

5.4

Caribbean excluding Guyana

0.8

-13.1

3.5

4.6

Goods producers excluding Guyana

0.2

-9.4

-0.3

3.5

b

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.
a
Forecast.
b
Aggregates are weighted averages.

Due to the fact that overall growth rate were starting from a low economic base due to the closureof Caribbean economies under COVID-19, an index of production using 2019 as the base period can beinformative. The results suggest that for the subregion as a whole growth in 2021 was below 2019 levelwith an index of (95.4). When Guyana (170) is included among the goods producers the index rises to(102.1%), which is above the 2019 level. For the service producers the index was 89.6% which is below
the 2019 income level. Only Montserrat (102.1%) was above the 2019 level among the service producers.
In 2022 the Caribbean index is anticipated to be (105.4), with the goods producers having an indexof (117.9) and the service producers with an index of (95.4).

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Table 3
Caribbean GDP growth rates index, 2019–2022(2019=100)
2019

2020

2021

2022a

Anguilla

100

70.1

77.9

88.6

Antigua and Barbuda

100

79.8

84.0

90.3

Bahamas

100

76.2

86.6

94.0

Barbados

100

86.0

86.6

91.7

Belize

100

83.3

91.4

96.7

Dominica

100

83.4

88.8

93.9

Grenada

100

86.2

91.2

94.5

Guyana

100

143.5

170.0

258.4

Jamaica

100

90.1

94.2

96.9

Monserrat

100

94.7

102.3

106.8

Saint Kitts and Nevis

100

85.8

82.4

86.6

Saint Lucia

100

79.6

85.2

92.0

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

100

94.7

95.4

98.0

Suriname

100

84.1

81.7

83.0

Trinidad and Tobago

100

92.6

92.2

95.6

The Caribbeanb

100

90.8

95.4

105.4

Goods Producers

100

98.4

102.1

117.9

Service Producers

100

84.1

89.6

94.5

Caribbean excluding Guyana

100

86.9

89.9

94.0

Goods producers excluding Guyana

100

90.6

90.3

93.4

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.
Forecast.
b
Aggregates are weighted averages.
aC.

Unemployment

The growth performance of the economies has a direct impact on unemployment. Unfortunately,
consistent unemployment data for the Caribbean are not available. The table reports some data for anumber of countries, but these are not always up to date. Only in the case of four countries are the data
complete and these are Belize, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. In the case of Jamaica
where the data set is complete there has been an uptick in unemployment as a result of the crisis. The
unemployment rate rose from 6.5% in 2020 to 8.35% in 2021.
A similar conclusion can be drawn for Trinidad and Tobago where the unemployment rate rose
form 3.5% in 2019 to 4.5 % in 2021.In the case of Saint Lucia the unemployment rate was 20.4% in 2020and fell to 19.5% in 2021 reflecting the strong growth in that year. In the case of Belize, theunemployment rate jumped from 9.0% in 2019 to 13.7% in 2020.The last time such a high rate wasexperienced was in 2012 where the rate was 14.4%.

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Table 4
Unemployment rates, 2014–2021(Percentages)
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Bahamas

13.8

12.0

12.7

9.8

10.0

Barbados

12.2

9.8

8.3

8.6

8.3

8.4

Belize

11.6

10.1

9.5

9.3

9.4

9.0

Grenada

24.5

22.9
14.0

13.5

9.1

13.5

8.6

7.4

5.5

18.9
7.5

GuyanaJamaicaSaint Lucia
Suriname

5.5

7.2

9.7

Trinidad and Tobago

2.5

2.4

3.2

2019

2020

2021

13.7

10.2

5.0

6.5

8.4

19.1

15.3

20.4

19.5

9.4

10.5
4.2

4.5

3.5

Source: International Labour Organization ILOSTAT and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on thebasis of official data.

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II. Fiscal and debt performanceThis section analyses the recent fiscal performance of the subregion as it continues to recover from the
major fallout it suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to improve public finances as aplatform for more robust economic growth.

A.

FiscalMarking a turnaround from the height of the pandemic, the fiscal deficit contracted by 3.2 percentage
points to 3.6% of GDP in 2021. This stemmed mainly from significant deficit reductions among thegoods producers spearheaded by Suriname and Belize. Saint Kitts and Nevis also achieved a significant
decline in its deficit. Suriname embarked upon a programme of fiscal retrenchment to address severe
fiscal imbalances that had affected the country’s macro-stability and credit ratings in recent years. This
led to a reduction in the deficit by 15.2 percentage points, leading to a surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2021.
The country entered into a 36 month Extended Fund Facility arrangement with the IMF for US$688
million. As part of the agreement, the government raised taxes in the highest income brackets,
increased the sales tax on imports and increased gold mining royalities. These and other measures led
to a sharp increase in revenue from 18.4% of GDP in 2020 to 28.2% of GDP in 2021.
Similarly, Belize moved to address its fiscal imbalance that had led to an unsustainable debt
position. The country benefited from debt relief under its debt for conservation swap that contributed
to a substantial debt reducing expenditure (10.1 percentage points decline and 10.5 percentage points
contraction in its fiscal deficit to 0.7% of GDP in 2021. Saint Kitts and Nevis benefited from a doublingof revenues from its Citizen by Investment (CBI) programme that aided in deficit reduction. Trinidad andTobago’s deficit fell by 1.9 percentage points to 9.4% of GDP as revenues were bolstered by higher fuelprices. By contrast, the deficit expanded by 6.1 percentage points to 12.7% of GDP in The Bahamas on
account of higher transfers to help households and small businesses during the pandemic and increased
outlays on the health sector. Similarly, the deficit grew by 3.6 percentage points to 7.2% of GDP in
Dominica driven by an increase in capital expenditure aimed at stimulating the economy.

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Figure 1
Overall fiscal deficit, 2017–2021(Per cent of GDP)
2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
The Caribbean

Goods producers

Service producers

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, on the basis of official figures.

B.

Debt

Partly due to growth in GDP, the average debt to GDP ratio declined from 94.4% in 2020 to 90.8% in
2021. The goods producers were the main drivers of the contraction in debt with a 10.9 percentage
points decline compared with 0.3 percentage points for the service producers. The main contributors to
the decline in debt were Belize, Guyana and The Bahamas with declines of 24.4, 8.8 and 7.7 percentage
points, respectively. Belize, as was suggested before, undertook a debt conversion for marine
conservation with The Nature Conservancy (TNC). Under the arrangement, Belize was able torepurchase US$553 million of the country’s public debt from bondholders at a 45% discount, through a
blue loan that was arranged by TNC (TNC, 2022). This led to a US$189 million reduction in principal dueon the debt. Further, under that transaction, Belize commits to placing 30% of its ocean underprotection by 2026. Guyana’s debt ratio fell due to a substantial 47% increase in nominal GDP, due
mainly to the expansion of oil production that offset significant growth in domestic debt and moremodest rise in external debt. Domestic debt expanded owing to the inclusion of the government’s
overdraft with the Bank of Guyana. Meanwhile the decline in the debt ratio in the Bahamas stemmed
from higher nominal GDP which helped to deflate the debt. Among the other countries, Trinidad andTobago’s debt contracted by 5.4 percentage points. Suriname’s debt burden eased significantly owing
to a significant rise in inflation that reduced its debt ratio. Moreover, to improve its serious debt
situation, Suriname reached an agreement with its Paris Club creditors to restructure its external debt.
Crucially, this restructuring will free up US$34 million in fiscal space over the next three years.

14ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Figure 2
Total public debt, 2021
(Per cent of GDP)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

Domestic public debt

Montserrat

GuyanaAnguillaSaint Kitts and Nevis

GrenadaTrinidad and Tobago

BelizeSaint Vincent and
the GrenadinesSaint Lucia

Antigua and Barbuda

Jamaica

BahamasDominica

Suriname

Barbados

0

External public debt

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, on the basis of official figures.

C.

Debt Service Payments

Average debt service payments as a percentage of government revenue increased by 4.4 percentage
points to 39.2% in 2021. Debt service continued to rise despite the recovery in economic activity. The
higher debt service ratio was underpinned by a hike in the ratio for the goods producers from 28.7% ofrevenue in 2020 to 50.3% of revenue in 2021. This was far above their average of 28.9% for the last five
years. The increase in the debt service ratio among the goods producers was mainly driven by Belize
and Suriname. Belize’s ratio expanded by a substantial 86.3 percentage points reflecting the impact ofthe debt buyback, as the government paid BZ$ 1,105.8 million to external bondholders to repurchaseand retire the 2034 US dollar Bond debt. If the debt buyback is excluded, Belize’s debt service ratio falls
by 7.0 percentage points to 15.1% of government revenue. In addition, the Caribbean’s average debt
service ratio would fall to 33.0% of government revenue, and the goods producers average would fall to26.9%. The debt service ratio of The Bahamas rose by 12.5 percentage points to 121.9% of revenue
fuelled by an 18.8% growth in debt service, owing to growth in debt in last few years, alongside a fall inrevenue. Suriname’s debt service to revenue ratio rose by 5.1 percentage points to 25.4% in 2021,but
was below the average for the last five years of 30.6%. The increase in 2021 resulted from a significant
growth in debt in 2020, partly to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic and election spending.
Meanwhile, the debt service ratio for the service producers declined by 1.8 percentage points
to 35.2%. The largest declines in debt occurred in Barbados, Jamaica and Grenada (11.5, 8.0 and
3.8 percentage points). The reduction in the debt service to revenue ratio in Barbados was underscoredby a decline in debt service payments that outweighed the increase in revenue. Jamaica’s debt service
ratio contracted by 8.0 percentage points as growth in revenue was buoyed by the recovery in economic
growth and surpassed the increase in debt service payments. Similarly, Grenada’s ratio declined owing

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

to firm growth in revenues that offset an uptick in debt service costs. Conversely, the debt service ratioof The Bahamas rose by 12.5 percentage points to 121.9% of revenue fuelled by an 18.8% growth in debt
service, owing to growth in debt in last few years, alongside a fall in revenue.

Figure 3
Total debt service 2021
(Per cent of government revenue)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, on the basis of official figures.

Montserrat

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Dominica

AnguillaSaint Vincent and
the Grenadines

Suriname

Barbados

Saint Lucia

Trinidad and Tobago

GrenadaGuyanaJamaica

Antigua and Barbuda

BelizeBahamas016ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

III. Monetary Policy and Prices

In 2021, the monetary policy stance of Central Banks in the Caribbean region was mainly
accommodative as they sought to mitigate the lingering impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on thevarious Caribbean economies. The measures used by the respective monetary authorities sought toincrease liquidity to stimulate both consumers spending as well as investment.
Some of the accommodative monetary measures included the maintaining or reducing thelending rates and focusing on stabilizing exchange rates. For instance, the Central Bank of Barbados
kept the benchmark bank rate at 2% and maintained the fixed exchange rate peg of BD$2 = US$1. In
the ECCU, the weighted average lending rate was reduced to 6.8% in 2021 from 7.2% in 2020. The ECCB
also kept the exchange rate fixed at EC$ 2.7 = US$ 1. In Trinidad and Tobago, the Central Bank’s repo
rate remained unchanged at 3.5%, while the commercial banks lending rate declined to 7.04% in 2021
from 7.29% in 2020. In Guyana, the central bank’s discount rate and reserve requirement rate both
remained unchanged at 5% and 10% respectively in 2021 from the previous year.
In Jamaica, the Central Bank tightened its monetary policy to ensure that the annual priceincrease remained within the inflation target of 4.0% to 6.0% and to maintain exchange rate stability.
Accordingly, the Bank of Jamaica raised the policy interest rate to 2.50% in 2021 from 0.5% in 2020 andincreased the rate on its Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) to 4.50% in 2021. Notably, in August 2021,
inflation breached the upper limit of the Central Bank’s inflation targeted range, due to significant
increases in international commodity prices and shipping costs spilling over to the local prices.
In Suriname, there was an urgent need for tight monetary policy as the country suffered thespill-over effects of a recent and significant currency devaluation, the shift to a floating exchange rate
regime in June 2021, a rapid rise in public debt, and inflation which was imported from the rise ininternational commodity prices and shipping costs. Furthermore, the country embarked on fiscal
consolidation as it sought to address its high public debt. Subsequently, Suriname adopted a more
modern monetary policy framework labelled the “Reserve Money Targeting Regime” which set targets
for the basic money supply, economic growth and inflation forecasts. Despite this consolidating
direction, average lending rates in declined marginally to 14.7% in 2021 from 14.8% in 2020.

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ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

A.

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Money supply and credit

The overall accommodative monetary policy stance facilitated a liquidity expansion in the in the region.
This was reflected by the increase in the M2 (narrow money plus savings deposits and time deposits) inthe banking system. Data on monetary aggregates for 2021 was not readily available for the ECCU
countries at the time of writing. It can be observed for the countries with data, M2 as a percentage of
GDP increased to 94.3% in 2021 from 70.9% in 2020, a 23.4 percentage points increase (see figure 4).
The largest increase in M2 was recorded in Suriname, a 23.50% increase, then by Jamaica of 17.06%
increase, followed by Guyana of 12.91% increase. The increases in M2 reflected the increase in liquidity
in the respective countries. For Guyana, the increase in liquidity was driven by increased revenues fromthe export of oil.
Figure 4
M2 and domestic credit to the private and public sector, 2017–2021(Per cent of GDP)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
2017

2018
M2

2019
Private sector credit

2020

2021

Public sector credit

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.

The Caribbean also recorded an overall contraction in the average domestic credit in 2021. Credit
to the private sector decreased to 41.6% of GDP in 2021 from 49.6% in 2020. Countries such as
Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Belize all experienced increases in private sector credit of
17.6%, 10.4%, 2.7%, and 2.6% respectively. However, this was tempered by the contractions in private
sector credit in the Bahamas and Barbados of -1.5% and -0.7% respectively.
Credit to the public sector declined to 17.7% in 2021 from 21.7% in 2020. The major driver in thedecrease was Guyana, which saw credit to the public sector decrease by 102.8 percentage points in
2021. This decrease reflected the change in public finance in the country as the government was earning
windfall revenues from the oil sector, thus reducing its need to borrow. Suriname and Belize
experienced declines in the public sector credit by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively. In contrast, theBahamas, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago incurred increases in public sector credit by 14.0%, 4.8%,
and 1.2% respectively.

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B.

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Inflation

In 2021, the Caribbean recorded a substantial increase in prices. This could be seen by the (y-o-y)
average inflation of 7.7% in December 2021, up from 4.3% in December 2020. Suriname was the main
outlier for the inflation as it experienced an inflation rate as high as 60.7% in December 2021, a rate
which was unchanged from December 2020. When Suriname was excluded from the Caribbean
average, the recorded (y-o-y) inflation was 3.9% in December 2021, up from -0.1% in December 2020.
Oil prices experienced a bullish trend throughout 2021. In fact, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil
prices were US$52 per barrel in January 2021 and increased to $71.71 by December 2021. The growth inoil prices were largely driven by demand and supply imbalances. In February 2022, Russia invaded
Ukraine which contributed to pushing oil prices over the US$100 per barrel benchmark. As the oil prices
were high, it caused an increase in fuel costs, which in turn was felt at the gasoline pump in the
Caribbean economies. Increases in fuel costs contributed to the inflationary pressures in the Caribbean.
Inflation in Suriname was recorded at 63.8% in January 2021 and remained at high levels
throughout the year. The inflation in Suriname was largely due to the effects of the 90% currency
devaluation in 2020 and the shift to a floating currency in 2021. In March 2021, the Central Bank allowed
the exchange rate to fluctuate in a band, with a Sur$16.30 upper limit and a Sur$14.29 lower limit. The
exchange rate was floated in June, which caused a depreciation to Sur$ 21.274 per US$1. The effects ofthe depreciation filtered into local prices, causing the inflation rate to eventually peak at 74.4% inAugust 2021. By March 2022, the inflation rate remained relatively unchanged at 62.2%, representing acontinuation in inflationary prices locally.

Figure 5
Inflation and West Texas intermediate oil prices, Jan 2021–Mar 2022
120

10

100

Inflation (Percentages)

8
7

80

6
60

5
4

40

3
2

20

1
0

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

The Caribbean

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

2021

2022

The Caribbean excluding Suriname

Crude oil price (WTI)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data; U.S. Energy
Information Administration.

Crude oil prices: west Texas Intermediate(USD per barrel)

919ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

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IV. External sector developments

A.

Tourism arrivals

The Caribbean tourism sector rebounded in 2021 after a devastating downturn in 2020 prompted by theonset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for some economies, a more robust recovery was limited
by multiple waves of increased COVID-19 case numbers either domestically or in most cases, acrossmajor tourism source markets. Among the fourteen Caribbean countries assessed, tourism stay-overarrivals expanded by 56.5% in 2021, a substantive improvement from the observed contraction of 71.5%
in 2020, yet slower than anticipated.
The recovery across the subregion was mixed as eight of the fourteen economies reported
positive growth in average tourism arrivals in 2021 relative to 2020. Five of those economies, namely,
The Bahamas, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Belize, reported growth above 50%. The Bahamas
reported the highest growth rate of 111.3% among all economies. The primary drivers of these
improvements were increased vaccinations across source destinations, improved testing facilities,
relaxing of travel and border restrictions, pent up demand for travel, relaunching of the tourism industry
at more destinations, and the restoration of some short-haul air capacity into the subregion. Further,tourism service providers have adapted to the challenges faced through building partnerships andcollaborations to attract visitors while ensuring a safe and healthy visitor experience. Despite theimproved growth performance, tourism arrivals among all Caribbean economies trail pre-pandemic
levels in 2019 by an average of 34.9%. Caribbean governments have provided support to the sector by
introducing policies to stimulate the return of airlift to the subregion, fostering better market access,providing support for unemployed workers in the sector, and increasing regulatory harmonization
across the subregion.
Alternatively, arrivals in economies such as Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts
and Nevis, and Trinidad and Tobago contracted by 9.0%, 31.5%, 3.9%, 65.0%, 32.3%, and 56.4%
respectively relative to 2020. The primary factors contributing to the weak performance of these21

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

economies were ongoing waves of COVID-19 outbreaks locally, slow restoration of air capacity, andsluggish easing of restrictions. The closure of LIAT in 2020 with no clear replacement to facilitate
inter-island travel within the OECS has also contributed to reduced travel within the Caribbean.
The performance of the cruise industry in 2021 remained weak as cruise passengers and thenumber of cruise calls were lower than expected. Extremely limited cruise activity restarted in late 2020
with the implementation of strict measures requiring full vaccination among passengers and crew
members along with other agreed protocols to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus. However,ongoing challenges related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic prevented a stronger recovery in theindustry and so, cruise activity did not pick up until the end of the second quarter of 2021Among theeleven countries reporting, cruise passenger arrivals contracted by 45.2% on average following a 69.3%
contraction in 2020. Nine of the eleven reporting economies observed more than 60% contraction in
cruise passenger arrivals in 2021 relative to 2020. Among the destinations receiving cruise passengers,
The Bahamas reported the smallest reduction of 16.0% relative to 2020 (1,115,181 persons in 2021)
while Grenada reported the largest decline relative to 2020 of 84.6% (25,027 cruise visits in 2021).
Trinidad and Tobago reported no visits due to continued restrictions for COVID-19.
Among the fourteen Caribbean economies assessed, the outlook for the tourism industry in 2022
is expected to be one of continued improvement as economic activity continues to pick up, airlift
increases, and travel confidence and demand increases. Caribbean economies must also continue tocollaborate with regional partners and governments to support the industry. For the cruise industry,
continued implementation of health standards and safeguards is expected to support further recovery.
The downside risk to the continued recovery in the tourism sector relates to emergence of highly
transmissible and more virulent strains of the COVID-19 virus, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, and aslowdown in global GDP growth, particularly in major tourism source markets.

Figure 6
Year-on-year growth in tourism stay-over arrivals, 2020–2021(Percentages)
150
111.3
100

81.9
66.3

50

57.0

52.4

51.9
35.5

28.1

0
-3.9
-32.3

-76.0

Caribbean

2021

-56.4
-71.5

-77.1

Trinidad and Tobago

2020

-78.0

-69.2

Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines

Grenada-67.2

Montserrat

Dominica

Source: ECLAC on the basis of official figures.

-72.5

Jamaica-73.1

Guyana

-77.5

-76.7

Barbados-71.4
BelizeAntigua and Barbuda

-100

-76.6
The Bahamas

-55.8

-56.3
-65.0

Saint Lucia

-31.5

-50

Saint Kitts and Nevis

-9.0

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Figure 7
Year-on-year growth in cruise ship arrivals, 2020–2021(Percentages)
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

2020

Trinidad and Tobago

Saint Vincent and
the GrenadinesSaint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

Jamaica

GrenadaDominica

BelizeBarbados

BahamasAntigua and Barbuda

-120

2021

Source: ECLAC on the basis of official figures.

B.

Current account

The average current account balance in the Caribbean widened to -14.7% of GDP in 2021 relative to-12.3% of GDP in 2020. The performance across the subregion was mixed, however, more than half ofthe economies (eight out of fifteen) reported varying degrees of deterioration in the current accountposition by the end of 2021 (figure 4). A major driver of this deterioration was merchandise tradeimbalance from rising commodities prices resulting from supply chain instability triggered by the
COVID-19 pandemic. Among the 15 economies assessed, Trinidad and Tobago had both the largest
current account surplus along with the most sizeable improvement in their current account position(improved by 18.4 percentage points to a surplus of 11.9% of GDP). Montserrat, on the other hand,experienced the largest deterioration in their current account balance (fell from a surplus of 8.4% of
GDP to a deficit of 18.6%) while the Anguillan economy had the largest current account deficit (48.2%
of GDP) among all economies. Rising inflation and higher fuel prices coupled with increased demand asthese economies reopened for tourism would be the primary contributors to these contractions.
For the service producing economies, the current account deficit widened by 4.1 percentage
points to 18.6% of GDP. For most of the tourism dependent economies, increased economic activity as
COVID-19 restrictions were slowly lifted combined with rising energy prices and inflation led to anincrease in merchandise imports. At the same time, exports decreased, and the overall effect was agreater merchandise trade imbalance. Further, for some tourism dependent economies, the recovery
in travel receipts was slower than expected. There were, however, some notable exceptions such as the
economies of Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Saint Kitts and Nevis
where recovery in tourism earnings bolstered the services account sufficiently to realize an
improvement in the overall current account position.

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

The performance among the goods producing economies varied with differing factors driving therespective outcomes. Among the four goods producing economies, the current account deficit of 6.5%
of GDP in 2020 narrowed to 3.8% in 2021. The observed improvement was solely fueled by astrengthening in the current account position for the Trinidad and Tobago economy. In particular, there
was an improvement in both the merchandise imports and exports relative to 2020 as capital imports
for energy sector projects increased, international commodity prices rose, and external demand
improved. This improvement was, however, tempered by a widening of the current account deficit in
the Guyanese economy. This was due to a decline in the merchandise trade surplus from importation of
the Liza Unity Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel and higher net payments ofservices. For Belize and Suriname, the current account remained roughly the same in 2021 as in 2020.

Figure 8
Current account balance, 2021
(Percentage of GDP)

2021

Anguilla

Dominica

GrenadaSaint Vincent and
the Grenadines

BahamasGuyanaMontserrat

Antigua and Barbuda

BelizeBarbados

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

Jamaica

Suriname

Trinidad and Tobago

30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60

20-'21 change

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.

As the service producing economies continue to further relax COVID-19 restrictions, the service
account is likely to continue to improve. However, the goods balance will continue to be affected by highenergy prices impacted by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, rising commodity prices and recessionarypressures in major tourism source markets. As Guyana continues to build its energy sector, themerchandise trade balance will be impacted. For Trinidad and Tobago, its current surplus will be impacted
by future energy prices. While the balance of payment current account deficit across the Caribbean is likely
to improve there are several factors that can negatively impact this improvement by the close of 2022;
particularly a slowdown in global economic activity, high inflation and high energy prices.

C.

Foreign Direct Investment

The role of Foreign direct investment (FDI) is important as it cretes employment, is a souce of foreignexchnage and in some cases helps in technology transfer and the upgrading of local skills. FDI inflows
for the Caribbean increased in 2021 to US$ 371.3 (table 5); up from US$ 303.7 in 2020. The average FDI
inflows, as a per cent of GDP, also increased by 1.8 percentage points to 9.6% in 2021 (figure 9).
However, excluding Guyana, average FDI inflows increased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.3%.

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Among the goods producing economies, that contribute 70.8% of the total FDI among the
15 Caribbean countries assessed, the average FDI inflows as a per cent of GDP increased by
3.8 percentage points to 15.5%. This increase primarily resulted from investments in the energy sector
in the Guyanese economy which currently stands as the leading recipient of FDI among all Caribbean
economies. In Guyana, FDI inflows increased by 17.6 percentage points to reach 55.5% of GDP as
activities related to the hydrocarbon sector and the oil exploration project in the Liza field progressed.
Excluding Guyana, the FDI for the remaining goods producers plummets to 2.1% of GDP in 2021 relative
to 2.9% of GDP in 2020. A substantial decline in FDI in the Trinidad and Tobago economy, which
dropped by 8.2 percentage points to -3.2% of GDP, was the primary contributor to this outcome. This
was largely due to the slowdown in the energy sector related to unplanned maintenance at certain
energy facilities and the closure of some petrochemical plants.
For the service producing economies, who contribute 29.2% of the total FDI among the
15 Caribbean economies assessed, FDI inflows increased slightly by 1.0 percentage points to 7.5% ofGDP. The improvement observed in most of these economies was primarily related to increased
investments in the tourism sector and its supporting industries relative to significant slowdown in 2020.
FDI is expected to improve in 2022, given the sizeable pickup in economic activity. However, there issome downside risk related to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, ongoing COVID-19 disruptions
particularly in the cruise sector, and a potential slowdown in global economic activity.

Figure 9Year-on-year change in foreign direct investment inflows, 2021
(Percentage of GDP)
20
15
10
5
0
-5

Trinidad and Tobago

Montserrat

GrenadaBarbados

Jamaica

BahamasSaint Lucia

BelizeAntigua and Barbuda

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Anguilla

Dominica

Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines

Suriname

Guyana-10

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Table 5
Foreign direct investment inflows, 2021

Anguilla

26.6

80.6

Year-on-yearchange(Percentages)
3.1

Antigua and Barbuda

7.1

104.3

1.7

FDI inflows, 2021
Per cent of GDP

US$ millions

Bahamas

4.8

541.0

0.3

Barbados

4.9

237.0

-0.7

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

Per cent of GDP

US$ millions

Belize5.1

127.8

Year-on-yearchange(Percentages)
1.4

Dominica

8.1

44.0

3.7

Grenada

12.9

144.2

-1.4

Guyana55.5

4 468.1

17.6

Jamaica

2.2

320.5

0.3

Montserrat

0.9

0.6

-2.9

Saint Kitts and Nevis

4.6

40.0

3.0

FDI inflows, 2021

Saint Lucia

2.6

46.7

0.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

7.3

65.3

3.8

Suriname

4.4

124.0

4.4

Trinidad and Tobago-3.2-777.6-8.2

The Caribbean

9.6

371.1

1.8

Goods Producers

15.5

985.6

3.8

Service Producers

7.5-175.31.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

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Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

V. Conclusion

In 2021 the world began recovering from the economic shock of COVID-19. Global growth bounced backfrom the large contraction as restrictions on movement and economic activity gradually lifted. The
Caribbean also showed some resilience as it returned to average growth of 3.5% (excluding Guyana)following a massive contraction of 13% in 2020. The overall recovery was mixed, as five economies
posted growth of below 1%, with three of them contracting. Guyana posted the highest growth rate fora second year, with the production from its new oil industry producing double-digit GDP growth
once again.
In 2020 subregional governments responded to the crisis with expansive fiscal policy to fundhealth care responses and supported affected businesses and workers.These measures led to theaverage fiscal balance more than doubling and the average total public debt ratio increasing by morethan 20 percentage points. In 2021 most countries were able to improve their fiscal position and bringthe average closer to 2019 values. Conversley, total public debt only fell by four percentage points,suggesting that some extra effort or assitance is need to tackle this issue.
The global recovery in 2021 led to further issues as rapidly increasing demand resulted in supply
chain bottlenecks that caused inflation to rise worldwide. The rise in energy prices contributed towidening of merchanise trade deficits in most of the service producing economies. Rising inflation wascompounded in early 2022 with the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent effects on food andfuel prices. Some Caribbean policymakers reacted to these developments with fiscal and monetary
policy responses. While coordination of both monetary and fiscal policies is necessary, the lack of anenvironment conducive to growth means that fiscal buffers cannot be easily built especially by thosecountries that are debt stressed. This increases overall vulnerability in the face of climate change andnatural disasters.
In light of the challenges fiscal policy must work in tandem with monetary policy; in this process
the food security of the most vulnerable is important. As part of the adjustment, investing in expanding

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ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification canmake economies more resilient when the next crisis comes (IMF 2022).
For 2022 the outlook is stronger: growth is projected at 4.6% (excluding Guyana), with all
economies expected to have positive growth. The further easing of restrictions in 2022 following theoutbreak of the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus at the start of the year has seen countries relax
their border restrictions and tourist arrrivals begin to approach pre-2020 levels in some countries. There
are some downside risks to the projection: continued high inflation stemming from global supply chain
issues, as well as the war in Ukraine may weight heavily on global growth. This may in turn impact the
Caribbean’s chances for sustained strong growth in the near future.

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Latin America and the Caribbean, 2022 (LC/PUB.2022/9-P/Rev.1), Santiago.
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IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2022), World Economic Outlook, October 2022, Washington D.C.
TNC (The Nature Conservancy) (2022), “Case Study: Belize debt conversion for marine conservation” [online]
https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/TNC-Belize-Debt-Conversion-CaseStudy.pdf.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (2002), Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing,
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ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 115

Econonomic Survey of the Caribbean 2022

SeriesStudies and Perspectives-The Caribbean.
Issues published
A complete list as well as pdf files are available atwww.cepal.org/en/publications
115.
114.
113.
112.
111.
110.
109.

108.
107.
106.

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2022, Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson, Sheldon McLean, Machel Pantin
and Nyasha Skerrette (LC/TS.2023/6; LC/CAR/TS.2023/1), 2023.
Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2021–2022, Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson,
Sheldon McLean, Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette (LC/TS.2022/233; LC/CAR/TS.2022/8), 2023.
Statistical literacy: an enabler of statistical capacity development in the Caribbean, Shirelle Floyd, Iskuhi
Mkrtchyan, and Abdullahi Abdulkadri (LC/TS.2022/227; LC/CAR/TS.2022/7), 2023.
Digital inclusion in Caribbean digital transformation frameworks and initiatives: a review, Dale Alexander, Lika
Døhl Diouf and Kwesi Prescod (LC/TS.2022/226; LC/CAR/TS.2022/6), 2023.
The ageing Caribbean: 20 years of the Madrid Plan of Action, Nekehia Quashie and Francis Jones,(LC/TS.2022/225; LC/CAR/TS.2022/5), 2023.
Science, technology and innovation for sustainable development: lessons from the Caribbean’s energy transition,
Laverne Walker and Jônatas de Paula (LC/TS.2022/217; LC/CAR/TS.2022/4), 2022.
Addressing gender disparities in education and employment: a necessary step for achieving sustainable
development in the Caribbean, Abdullahi Abdulkadri, Samantha John-Aloye, Iskuhi Mkrtchyan, Candice
Gonzales, Shari Johnson and Shirelle Floyd (LC/TS.2022/114; LC/CAR/TS.2022/3), 2022.
Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2020–2021, Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson,
Sheldon McLean, Machel Pantin, Nyasha Skerrette and Keron Victor (LC/TS.2022/49; LC/CAR/TS.2022/2), 2022.
A review of the status of institutional mechanisms for sustainable development planning in the Caribbean,
Catarina Camarinhas and Ivica Trumbic (LC/TS.2022/16; LC/CAR/TS.2022/1), 2022.
Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2021, Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson, Sheldon McLean
Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette (LC/TS.2021/222; LC/CAR/TS.2021/8), 2022.

30

STUDIES AND PERSPECTIVES
Issues published:
115 Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2022
Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson, Sheldon McLean,
Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette

114 Preliminary overview of the economiesof the Caribbean 2021–2022
Dillon Alleyne, Michael Hendrickson, Sheldon McLean,
Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette

113 Statistical literacy

An enabler of statistical capacity developmentin the Caribbean
Shirelle Floyd, Iskuhi Mkrtchyan
and Abdullahi Abdulkadri

112 Digital inclusion in Caribbean digitaltransformation frameworks and initiatives
A review

Dale Alexander, Lika Døhl Diouf and Kwesi Prescod

LC/TS.2023/6