Remarks at the 2016 Pilipinas Conference
Amb. Shingo Yamagami
Director General (acting) of the Japan institute ofInternational Affairs
December 8, 2016, The Peninsula Manila
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.
First of all, my special thanks go to the ADRi and Secretary Del
Rosario for having me in this very timely and important conference.
Before moving to this think tank in Japan, Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs, I was in Japan’s Foreign Service for a little morethan 30 years. Now I feel independent like the Philippines before-totally emancipated from the shackles of my former employer. But
today I notice I am being watched very closely by some Japanese
embassy officials who are here. I feel like Michael Corleone of themovie Godfather. “Just as I thought I was out, they pulled me backin.” Well, I am sorry to note that today I did not prepare any
PowerPoint materials because I did not want to leave any trails thatmight get me caught by them. Besides, next week I am planning togo to Beijing and I’m still waiting for my visa.
Bear with me for 15 minutes. I just want to throw out some food forthought in the form of five topics. First, the significance of thearbitration award, then China and the US; ASEAN; and finally theway forward and what Japan can do.
Arbitration
First, the significance of the arbitration ruling. Throughout my 30 someyears in the foreign service, I have been a student of internationallaw. You can call me a half-baked international lawyer. But from myviewpoint, it was the most remarkable decision in my lifetime.
Especially the judgment was clearly handed down to both parties,
carrying us the effect that China’s claims to the historical rights orother sovereign rights or jurisdiction with respect to the maritime
areas encompassed by the nine-dash line was judged to becontrary to the UNCLOS. This is a significant decision.
In this regard, I pay good respect to the tremendous job done by thePhilippine legal team. In fact, about a little more than a year ago, I
came to Manila to discuss the issue with the legal experts of thePhilippine Government. Then I was introduced to one of the highly
respected brains behind this legal team, a Supreme Court Justice. I
went to visit his office and surprisingly to many square Japanese
government officials, playing in his office was rock music. We justwondered to ourselves, ‘What is really going on?’ But as soon as weheard his remarks on some of the salient legal arguments to be
made, we were so impressed. So, they did a hell of a job.
Incidentally, we are inviting the legal counsel from the United States,
Mr. Reichler, to JIIA next year so I am sure he will share his legal
insight with the Japanese legal community.
Second point I would like to make here in the context of thearbitration ruling is the measured response from this country. I wastold by one of my Filipino colleagues that on the first day, it was likethe Philippines hit the lottery right--they went ecstatic. But fromsecond day on, they were so measured and there was no euphoria.
This was in stark contrast to the response of the other party to thedispute, whose senior official called the arbitration a complete
political farce, the arbitration award a waste of paper. Well, thisshows how difficult it is not only to be a good loser but also to be agood student of international law.

You all might wonder what effect this arbitration ruling will have in
the near or perhaps distant future. I will say tremendous difference
will be made. This is a historic decision and it will have a sustained
power. Whenever legal scholars or international experts review thiscase or similar case, this arbitration award will stay there. So you may
view this with no tangible, immediate effect, but certainly, this is final
and this is legally binding to both parties.
Back in Japanese history, whenever we have in-fighting amongst
samurais or war-lords, the yardstick was which side has the Emperor’sflag. So when it comes to this, it is the Philippine Government that has
the Emperor’s flag.
China
The second topic I wanted to mention is China: Do they care? My
short answer is, of course they do care. There will be a tremendous
reputation cost for them and, as I think you know, the Chinese
government has been getting more and more cautious in terms ofconducting possible further reclamation or further militarization ofsea features in the South China Sea. An interesting development I
have been able to notice is that when I attended a maritime
security seminar in Canberra last time, one of the Chineseparticipants (he was a legal expert) called the decision of theChinese government not to appear in the arbitration proceeding as“disastrous.” He later on said that if China had done something in theproceedings, China would have lost but not by 0 versus 5 but by 2versus 3. I am not going to show whether the estimation is right or not
but I think it is healthy to see this kind of development or this kind ofopinion getting expressed even within China.
Second point is, should we make use of this arbitration ruling? Yes,
the Philippine Government as well as the international community
should make full use of this important legal decision not only inbilateral context but also in regional as well as multilateral context. It
takes time. Certainly it takes quite some time to realize the real
meaning of it, but this ruling is going to be the litmus test of the rule oflaw in East Asia.
My final point on the China issue is this: some Western media are soquick to point out that under President Duterte, the Philippines isgetting drawn closer to China, and separating itself from countries
like the U.S. and Japan. Whenever I read such news, I call this kind ofobservation ‘too simplistic’ and ‘off the mark’. I hasten to point out
the facts: Before President Duterte went to Beijing, he went to Hanoi,
and after his trip to Beijing, he came to Tokyo. You may have seen
the text of the Philippine-Japan Joint Statement issued by Prime
Minister Abe and President Duterte. It is perfect. Perfect from theJapanese viewpoint as well. It is natural to try to maintain a close
trade and investment relationship with this emerging power in East
Asia; Japan has been doing that for some years. What is importantfor us to do is to speak up on issues of political and security
significance as we keep close trade and investment ties with China.
USOn this comment of separation from the US, this is a ticklish point tobe made as I am now rolling down the slippery slope of life in mymid-50s. If you live long enough, you may have seen a lot ofsituations like these. Such words of separation are often uttered evenin very close couples. So I am not very concerned about thisparticular remark.
Also, coming from Japan, a former colonial and imperial power, Iknow that there are some countries which have to carry thebaggage of history, including Japan and US. Somebody here in thisconference mentioned about Mr. Taft. We are taught in theclassroom of Japan about this Katsura-Taft Agreement: Americans

get the Philippines and Japanese get the Korean Peninsula. We lived
that kind of period. Those days are long gone but still we need to bevery sensitive to the feelings of the Philippines and others.
What is important here is, however, not to create any power vacuum,
because whenever you create a power vacuum in terms of youralliance with the United States, there are certain forces that are soeager to take advantage of such power vacuum. Look at what
happened to the Paracel Islands, look at what happened to the
Mischief Reef. History is full of those proofs. Just on general terms, it isreally crucial to put emotions under control for a clear-headed andwise accomplishment of national interests. Otherwise, you might endup playing into the hands of you potential adversary who are eager
to drive a wedge in your alliance with the United States.
ASEAN
My fourth point is ASEAN. Yes, the unity of ASEAN has been testedand challenged. Whenever I talk with some people of ASEAN
member states, I just get curious as to whether their framing of issues
is right or not. When I went to Jakarta the other day, I was told by
one prominent Indonesian think tanker that the militarization of theSouth China Sea is only for two superpowers. By that he meant theUS and China, and he also said that it has got nothing to do with
ASEAN and Japan. My reaction was, “No, you are framing it wrong.”
It is not only for those two nations. This is an issue about what kind ofregional order and international order you would like to establish inthis part of the world.
You all do not have to be reminded of the newspaper
advertisement posted in the Philippine Star, August of last year. Thatis a kind of regional order contemplated by the other party to thedispute. How should we protect and further maintain liberal, rules-

based international order? That is a question being posed to us. Yes,we do not want to see bullying, we do not want see a world where
only might prevails.
In this regard, I just want to throw some food for thought, which is:
Does ASEAN have the right kind of configuration to seriously tackle
this issue? When I was in France the other day, some Europeans are
calling Hungary as the Cambodia of EU. So this issue on the South
China Sea: Is it conducive to be left to consensus-based decisions ofregional institutions such as the ASEAN and the EU? That is a question
you might want to ponder. After all, the starting point of this territorial
sovereignty issue in the South China Sea was the San Francisco
Peace Treaty. Isn’t it the time to conduct a San Francisco Peace
Conference Mark 2? A kind of minilateral conference to tackle theseissues among the countries seriously concerned.
Way forward and What Japan can do
Finally, the way forward. I have just three points.
First, the diplomatic approach. As I said, this arbitration ruling is goingto stay for good, forever and it is really up to the Philippines how tomake full use of it. You might feel lonely standing in the frontline, butyou are not alone. Japan has been standing in the frontline to face
up to the challenge posed by our continental neighbor. Japan will
be here and there to help the Philippines in any way possible.
Second point is capacity-building. The need is very high for thePhilippine coast guard as well as for the Philippine navy to develop
their capabilities and capacity. There is no question about that. In
that spirit, the Japanese Government has decided to provide ten
patrol boats, and on top of these ten there are two bigger vessels
coming to the Philippine along with 5 training airplanes for lease. Thisis a significant step forward in conjunction with any contribution tobe extended by like-minded countries such as the United States andAustralia.
Finally, I would like to emphasize the importance of letting
deterrence work. In that regard, certainly, military presence isimportant. Aside from freedom of navigation operations conductedby Americans, Japan has been doing joint drills with the Philippine
navy and coast guard, and we are making sure the Japanesemaritime self-defense forces’ vessels stop by Subic Bay, including inApril this year. In so doing, we would like to show to the regional
community as well as the international community that deterrence
has been working and will work in this region.
Thank you for listening, that’s all.