Journal of Natural Disaster Science, Volume 35, Number 2, 2014, pp67-80

Collaboration on Local Weather Information between
Weather Forecasters and Weather Information Users
Kensuke TAKENOUCHI*
Yasuhito KAWATA*
Chihiro NAKANISHI*
Katsuya YAMORI***Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University**Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University(Received May 8, 2014 Accepted November 6, 2014)
ABSTRACTJapan experiences many floods every year, and information on severe weather can be
improved in several ways. However, past researches into severe weather information
indicate that residents tend to wait for information to change and to rely on outside
information too much. Against this background, we propose local weather information(LWI) as an approach to disaster mitigation. LWI is an approach to enhancing weather risk
awareness between forecasters and users of weather information. The basic concept of
LWI is that residents share disaster risk data obtained from various weather information byusing familiar, plain, and local expressions. The study area for this research is near Miya
River in Ise City, located in central Japan. From the results of a questionnaire to residents
in the study area, LWI increased evacuation likelihood. Moreover, this study introduces
a collaborative framework among relevant groups through LWI, which is identified asa new social system of severe weather information. This new system creates smootherrisk communication on disasters by connecting the local knowledge of residents with theexpert knowledge of weather forecasters. As a next step, setting of weather conditions
corresponding to LWI and verification of this collaboration will be the subject of future
study.
Keyword: Weather Information, Collaboration, Risk Communication, Locality, Social System

1. Introduction
Various types of weather information are broadcast inJapan during storms. This information includes severe
weather warnings, evacuation information, and damage information. In these broadcasts, weather information is usually presented with the lead time before
a meteorological phenomenon arrives at a target area.
Severe weather information is expected to be priorwarning before a disaster happens and, in Japan, thesewarnings are mainly issued by the Japan Meteorologi-

cal Agency (JMA). The JMA has developed various
weather information that changes as a storm progresses with improving precision and availability (Chapter2). In contrast to such improvements in warnings, users’ risk awareness and understanding of severe
weather information are not sufficiently improved,
and this information needs another approach withmarketing for the users, such as “Can residents understand this information?” or “Can residents accept thisinformation?” (Sekiya, 2011). In Japan, some im67

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORI

provements to weather information have been madesince 2004 with the aim of improving the availabilityof information to various members of society. These
improvements include information about factors concomitant with specific disaster phenomena such as
sediment disasters (e.g., mudslides) and higher resolution of basic weather warnings and advisories (fromthe size of a part of a prefecture to the size of individual cities and towns). In addition, the emergency
warning system was introduced in 2013, an emergency warning being more serious than conventional
warning levels and informing residents that theyshould take all measures possible to protect themselves. For professionals and those accustomed to severe weather information, these improvements haveenhanced the sophistication and the availability of severe weather information, but these improvements
have also complicated and diversified the kinds of information provided. It is questionable whether these
improvements in the severe weather information system have helped individuals mitigate injury and loss
from disasters.
In fact, a survey in 2010 by the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2011) indicates poor understanding of severe weather information among the public.
The rate of having knowledge of information among
the residents surveyed was 26.7% concerning improved resolution of warnings and advisories, and12.5% concerning availability of sediment disasterrisk information. Floods happen somewhere in Japanevery year and, in response to this, severe weather information has been improved in several ways, but thissevere weather information about disaster is inadequately disseminated among residents.
At present, information on severe weather during
disasters does not adequately convey the risk to residents, and so they may not take adequate precautions.
Moreover, the increasing sophistication and amountof severe weather information can lead to confusion
among residents about how such information should
be used. Residents tend to wait for changes in severity(too much reliance on information) (Katada et al.,2005) and not to judge disaster risk by themselves(reliance on outside information), and this can produce an attitude of “no action without information,”
which augments reliance on outside information still
further, resulting in a double bind for information providers (Yamori, 2009). In the above survey by the

JMA, if information on a record-breaking deluge in ashort period is announced, 83.3% of respondents answered that they would pay attention to the next
weather information, although this information is oneof the most severe sorts of weather information. At aminimum, the improvements to severe weather information have led to higher efficiency as important information during disasters, but they have not yet led
to satisfactory improvements in the action of residents. The severe weather information system in Japan has not reached its potential worth to Japanesesociety.
Katada et al. (2005) and Oikawa et al. (2005) researched risk consciousness of local disasters innorthern Kanto, an area north of Tokyo. Their research found that evacuation information announced
by local governments plays an important role in theevacuation of residents and that residents who hadhigher awareness in advance of disaster tend to evacuate more rapidly in response to evacuation information. Weather information tends to be used to judge
evacuation information by local government and asannouncements given prior to evacuation information.
So, if residents have a better understanding of severe
weather information, weather information can provide
them with more adequate risk consciousness of disasters and facilitate their earlier action.
2. Development of severe weather information andits relationship to society
In Japan, severe weather information is produced andannounced by the JMA (as specified in the Meteorological Service Act, Transportation Committee in theDiet, 1993). Under this social system, the JMA’s main
approach has been from the perspective of meteorology. This has resulted in severe weather information
being improved, particularly regarding precision, information on specific phenomena, and model resolution.
Conveyance of weather information has beenchanged for users, but most of the improvements havebeen the result of introducing modern supercomputer
systems, developing weather observation technologies
and high-resolution forecast models (in both grid andtime scale), and enhanced understanding of dynamic
and physical mechanisms behind weather (Takeuchi,
2004).
68

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERS

On the improvements in conveyance, some progress has been rapidly made over these last several
years. In addition to risk information about sedimentdisasters (Tatehira, 2006), river-specific flood warnings at five levels are now available (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2007b). Also, the previously discussed improvements to the spatial resolution of basic
weather warnings and advisories (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2010) and the introduction of an emergency warning system (Japan Meteorological Agency,
2013a) have contributed to a more robust, informative
system. Moreover, a reclassification of severe weather
information is under discussion (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2013b). This reclassifies many kinds ofsevere weather information as five-level information
so that it can be used in stages. These improvements
to the quality and amount of information can partly
lead to more effective actions during disaster by targeting actions against specific phenomena and improving recognition of disaster risk. It is expected that
advance knowledge of severe weather information by
residents will improve outcomes, but the efficacy ofthese kinds of improvement may be limited in practice as shown in the JMA’s survey.
Aside from the above effect of the improvements, the relationship among social groups to weather information is examined. Figure 1 shows representative relationships to severe weather information
among relevant members, such as local meteorological offices, local governments, and area residents. In
this figure, the double-headed arrows indicate interactive relationships with the information, the singleheaded arrows indicate unidirectional relationships
with the information, and an ellipse behind eachmember indicates a single action based on the information. In addition, the filled arrows indicate strong
relationships and the dashed arrows indicate weak relationships. Also, this paper focuses on communication of severe weather information, so media whose
main purpose is information transmission have been
omitted from this figure. As Figure 1 shows, mostweather information such as heavy rain warning is directly produced by local meteorological offices andconveyed to residents through local governments.
Some weather information is collectively announced
by the institutions concerned (double-headed arrows)
such as flood warning for Class A rivers (by regional
bureaus of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Trans-

port and Tourism (MLIT) and local meteorologicaloffices), flood warning for Class B rivers, and risk information on sediment disaster (by prefectural governments and local meteorological offices). And somelocal governments observe meteorological conditions
first hand (ellipse behind). However, local governments and residents basically receive weather information only from their local meteorological offices.
Thus, communication of severe weather information
tends to be unidirectional in Japan. The present social
system of weather information has promoted this tendency. This system strongly depends on the JMA because of the rule that severe weather information beannounced by the JMA. If residents were able to understand severe weather information well and use it
effectively for disaster mitigation, this system would
be a useful one. But residents tend to await more information as shown in the previous chapter.
How do the abovementioned JMA’s improvements to severe weather information affect these relationships? These improvements tend to solidify thepresent relationships, so that the improvements haveenhanced the perception and attitude that “severe
weather information is only received,” and this tendency has hindered the development of a collaborative system approach to weather information. A collaborative approach is necessary in terms of risk
communication so as to promote understanding of severe weather information and appropriate responses.
At present, consciousness of disaster risk induced by

Local
government

Community& Residents

Local
MeteorologicalofficeFigure 1. General relationships regarding severe
weather information among residents, local
governments, and local meteorological offices in Japan.
*The filled arrows indicate strong relationships; thedashed arrows indicate weak relationships.
69

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORI

severe weather information, which is conveyed unilaterally, entirely depends on each resident.

not need additional weather information, and LWI
broadly embraces phenomena derived from meteorological phenomena, so that basic information for LWI
includes observations such as river water levels. In addition, final evacuation is decided individually, but
evacuation judgment in society is based on evacuation
information announced by local government because
the announcement of evacuation information is limitedby law in Japan. Thus, LWI is expected to fulfill therole of improving risk consciousness and assisting withthe dissemination of evacuation information before
evacuation is formally announced by local government.
When LWI is evaluated from the viewpoint described above, previous researches that focused on theinfluence of the form of expression of disaster information raise some interesting issues. Tanaka and Kato
(2011) found that unfamiliar adverbs (e.g., ultimately
dangerous and instantly evacuate) can effectively emphasize the need for evacuation and posited that evacuation information that conveys that something extraordinary is happening will be more effective thanordinary communications. Yoshii (2006) found thatannouncements explaining reasons for evacuation andinformation including images of disaster are effective.
Related to this topic, Asada et al. (2001) confirmed
differences in understanding a situation and feeling aneed to evacuate arise from the amount of information provided or how water level information is expressed. This research shows more detailed information and certain words that indicate the level of danger
make residents feel a greater necessity to evacuate.
This research shows that expression and content ofweather information may influence action during adisaster more than precision and resolution of suchinformation.

3. System of local weather information
3.1. A new medium connecting weather forecasters
and information users
Severe weather information is increasingly complex
and diverse, so a medium between weather forecasters and users of severe weather information is needed
to properly and efficiently use the information. Local
weather information (LWI) is one of the mediums(broadly comprising something that makes better
communication: instruments, systems, etc.) connecting risk awareness of disaster between them.
The fundamental concept of LWI is that, bytranslating technical and diverse severe weather information into LWI information using familiar, plain,
and local expressions, LWI raises residents’ awareness of disaster risk and induces early action in response before a disaster arrives. Moreover, residents
can consider the contents of LWI by themselves andthis consideration will enhance consciousness of LWI
as their own information. Also, a community can develop a common risk awareness by sharing LWI in
the community (the importance of self-directed actions during disasters is studied in Katada and Kanai(2009) and Katada (2009)).
This approach is not a unidirectional one fromthe local meteorological office, but a bidirectional one
that forms a common understanding between weather
forecasters and information users; thus, it will enhance the information literacy of users and support
the construction of real social awareness of disaster(about real social awareness, see Kondo et al., 2011).
3.2. Characteristics of LWI
Various approaches to severe weather information obtained from information users, such as original local
observations, additional monitoring of the local situation, and sharing current severe weather information,
can offer some improvements to residents’ consciousness of confirmed disaster risk. The LWI approach emphasizes effective use of currently available severe
weather information, not necessarily original information. Our research explores the possibility of mitigating
disaster damage by sharing familiar and local weather
information based on existing severe weather information. Therefore, the LWI framework assumed here does

3.3. Study in an area around Miya River in Ise City
Since April 2012, research on LWI has been conducted in an area around Miya River in Ise City, which islocated in the middle of Mie Prefecture (itself locatedin the middle of Honshu, the main island of Japan).
Figure 2 shows the location of this study area. The
area is located in the lower region of Miya River,whose headwaters are in the rainiest area of Japan.
Miya River is 91 km long with a basin area of 920
km2, and 140,000 people live near the river, according
to research by MLIT. This river flows north along thewestern boundary of the study area. The average an70

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERSa return envelope, to all households in Tsujikuru except those that have opted out of receiving such typesof mail.
In this survey, questions were asked about actions in response to both CWI (which is intended forbroad and diverse areas and uses common expressions) and LWI (which uses familiar, plain, and local
expressions). The possibility of disaster mitigation induced by the use of LWI was extracted from the survey answers. This survey was conducted before thelaunch of LWI in the study area, so we should not expect the results to be affected by the implementationof LWI. In addition, equal numbers of two different
questionnaires on “action during the time of disaster”
were delivered to residents, with the questionnaire
version randomly selected. One survey uses CWI andthe other uses LWI. This survey thus allows analysis
and comparison of both weather systems while avoiding order and comparison effects in individual responses.

nual rainfall in the area is 1837.6 mm (average at the
Obata observation station for 1981–2010, which is located near this study area), and this amount is lessthan 3147.5 mm (average at Miyagawa Town’s observation station in the same period, which is located in
the upper area of Miya River) and a little more than
the average annual rainfall in Japan during the same
period, as recorded in the weather statistics of the
JMA. However, a mass of precipitation that rains
across a wide area of the Miya River basin, including
the area near the headwaters, reaches the study area,
so floods have happened several times in the past
(Araki, 2004). Therefore, massive river construction
projects to protect low-lying areas, such as near thebanks, have been undertaken through the ages.
In the next section, the results of a survey in the
Tsujikuru area within the study area (see Figure 2) are
discussed. These results compare the expected effects
during disaster between conventional weather information (CWI) and LWI, with a significant improvement confirmed.

4.2. Comparisons between local weather information(LWI) and conventional weather information(CWI)
Disaster awareness is typically judged in an uncertain
situation or without sufficient understanding of thecurrent situation. Research on judgment heuristics under uncertainty (e.g., Nakayachi, 2012; Hirakawa etal., 2011) was used to classify expressions of weather
information into four patterns. These four patterns are
explained below and concrete examples of these patterns used in our survey are shown in Table 1.
(1) Pattern 1: Local indicators (with specific local
disaster damage)
In Japan, when a heavy rain warning is announced,
the disaster risk is usually stated in a routine form,
such as “Be aware of flooding around lower areas andmudslides.” However, residents need information thatis immediately relevant to their communities and lives
and is highly local. Concrete and familiar information
is important to residents. Information such as “Location X in town is in danger” or “Branch Y of the riveris flooding” has the necessary specificity and immediacy. One aspect of LWI is that the information provided conveys concrete understanding of the situationand danger at familiar locations in the local area. Thissurvey compares differences in the actions of resi-

Figure 2. Study area for LWI research.
4. Survey on the effect on evacuation action of severe
weather information
A survey was conducted to research the effect of LWI.
In this section, the possibility of disaster mitigation
using LWI is confirmed for the Tsujikuru area, which
is located near the lower portion of Miya River,through analysis of the survey results.
4.1. Purpose, method, and period of the survey
Residents of Tsujikuru were surveyed from June 21 toJuly 6 in 2012. Questionnaires were sent by post, with71

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORI

Table 1. Settings of local weather information (LWI) and conventional weather information (CWI) on a survey
in Tsujikuru
Pattern 1

Local indicators (with specific local disaster damage )LWI

After heavy rain, the area around 3 Tsujikuru will be flooded.

CWI

A rain warning has been announced for Ise City.

Pattern 2

Intuition (by instinct and plain expression)

LWI

The water level is 1 m from the top of the bank, and Miya River will flood.

CWI

The water level has exceeded the flood danger water level by 1.5 m.

Pattern 3

Experience (comparison with past disasters)

LWI

As much rain as in Typhoon 21 of 2004 is forecast to fall by tomorrow morning.

CWI

750 mm of rain over 24 hours is forecast to fall by tomorrow morning in the southern area of Mie
Prefecture.

Pattern 4

Association (reason for evacuation)

LWI

Because the Tsujikuru area is at high risk of flooding, an evacuation advisory has been announced.

CWI

An evacuation advisory has been announced.

*The parentheses indicate one example actually given in the survey.

dents receiving a general warning of the type widely
broadcast in Japan and those receiving an announcement of local disaster damage.

(2004) found that residents find relative information,such as comparison with past records, more helpful
than raw observation data. In Japan, this point has
been heeded, and the JMA now announces disasterrisk by including comparisons, such as “Now, it israining as much as during the Tokai heavy rains of
September 2000” (announced on August 28, 2008,
from Tamura (2009)), and the use of such expressions
is promoted as good practice by the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2012). However, this type of information may lack relevance to those residents who
have no experience of a past disaster or are not at risk
from it. The survey compares differences in projectedactions between respondents who received a forecast
comparing a past disaster and those who received asimple forecast of rainfall in the area. For the past disaster, Typhoon 21 of 2004 was used; that storm
caused the heaviest damage to the Tsujikuru area inrecent years.

(2) Pattern 2: Intuition (by instinct and plain
expression)
In 2004, Japan experienced the highest number of typhoon landfalls on record and suffered heavy damage.
This has resulted in the way of broadcasting disaster
information being changed. As an example of waterlevel, “Flood Water Danger Level” was utilized. Thisphrase is used to notify of flood risk, but to laypersons this does not sufficiently convey the level ofdanger. Direct recognition of the informational content is important for comprehension of risk. To assess
the effect of warning style, our survey provided information about flood danger water level or height toflood danger water level according to the survey version, and asked residents about their action in response.

(4) Pattern 4: Association (explanation of reason
for evacuation information)
Evacuation information is announced by local governments. But, even when this information is received, the meaning of the information and the levelof disaster risk are not always conveyed. This has
been established by past research (e.g., Yoshii, 2006;
Katada et al., 2001). Evacuation information would(3) Pattern 3: Experience (with past actual disasterdamage)An important pathway to grasp the current situation isconnection to a past experience. A connection of meteorological phenomena to past experiences is expected to enhance understanding of personal disaster risk.
About this type of experience, Ushiyama et al.
72

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERS

be improved by sending not only an announcement ofevacuation but also an explanation of the risk and thereason that evacuation is needed.
In the survey, the reason for evacuation is clearly
expressed, and the need to evacuate is associated withheavy damage in the local area, the effects of suchdamage, and potential mitigation by reaction to thedisaster. The effect of evacuation information with orwithout a statement about flood damage to the Tsujikuru area was checked by including damage statementsin the “only LWI” survey version.
The above patterns were determined as the formsof LWI used in the survey. LWI broadly allows residents to consider by themselves with collaboration
among relevant groups (Section 4.5), but we used theabove patterns to construct the primary survey basedon various local information.

be affected by flooding; 29% live in “low-lying areas
near Miya River,” and such residents are heavily affected by flooding. Difference in residential areastrongly affected the survey responses, which indicates important factors in some analyses of this survey.
Differences in projected action between residents
who received information according to the CWI system and those who received information according to
the LWI system were analyzed. For this topic, the survey offered eight options: 1) I will evacuate at once;2) I will start to prepare for an evacuation; 3) I will
check weather information on TV; 4) I will check outside my home; 5) I will ask someone; 6) I will do
nothing; 7) I can’t understand this information; and 8)
other. Responses 1) and 2) indicate an active responseto the disaster (evacuation actions). As discussed
above, the objective of the LWI system is to increaseawareness of the current situation and disaster risk,
which should ultimately lead to earlier action if necessary. In this survey, the effect of disaster risk awareness on mitigation of disaster damage is evaluated byexamining the rate of evacuation actions.
Figure 5 shows the differences in action basedon the four patterns of information in Table 1. The effect of sex, age, and residential area distribution oneach result did not obviously differ between CWI and
LWI. The rates of evacuation action show the differences between CWI and LWI in all four patterns, andthe patterns of LWI obviously increase the rate. We
checked the chi-squared statistics against these resultsof evacuation action between CWI and LWI. The chisquared values are 37.7 (Pattern 1), 17.2 (Pattern 2),
7.52 (Pattern 3), and 1.65 (Pattern 4). These chisquared values except for Pattern 4 are much higher

4.3. Survey results
The response rate was 40.5%, comprising 329 of 811
households. Among the respondents, 156 received the
CWI system version of the survey, and 173 received
the LWI system version. Figures 3 and 4 show basic
data on the respondents. About 77% of the respondents were over 50 years old, which is significantly
higher than 50.5% (percentage of residents older than
50 according to the 2010 Population Census of Japan). We interpret this to mean that older people, who
are more likely to spend a large amount of time athome, were more likely to respond to this survey because the survey and response were conducted bypost. Among the respondents, 162 were men, 160
were women, and 7 did not respond to this question.
Of the respondents, 44% live in the “high-lying areas
near Miya River,” and such residents are unlikely to20s
3 (1%)
22 (7%)

22 (7%)

low-lying area near

60 (19%)95 (30%) the Miya River30s
51 (16%)24 (8%)50s

68 (21%)high-lying area near
the Miya River

40s

low-lying area far
from the Miya River

60s
70s
72 (22%)80s or older

140
(44%)

89 (27%)
㻔㻟㻞㻣㻌㼢㼍㼘㼕㼐㻌㼞㼑㼟㼜㼛㼚㼟㼑㼟㻕

Figure 3. Ages of respondents.

high-lying area far
from the Miya River(319 Valid responses)

Figure 4. Residential areas of respondents.
73

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORIPattern 1: Local Indicators

Pattern 2: Intuition
5 16

17

LWI

58

95

CWI 119

99

134

7 13

22

111

LWI

54

50

70

76

15

0

0

65

5 16

6

CWI 12

45

114

94

17

0
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

3

100%

0%

Percentage and Number of Respondents*Multi-answer Question (Valid Respondents: 154(CWI), 169(LWI))

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percentage and Number of Respondents*Multi-answer Question (Valid Respondents: 154(CWI), 168(LWI))

Pattern 4: Association

Pattern 3: Experience

8 16

9 11
LWI

16

65

101

69

LWI

17

34

66

73

76

19

2

0

10 12
CWI 4

44

119

93

513

15

CWI 15

62

96

98

25

8
0%

20%

40%

60%

100%

80%

0

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percentage and Number of Respondents

Percentage and Number of Respondents*Multi-answer Question (Valid Respondents: 154(CWI), 167(LWI))*Multi-answer Question (Valid Respondents: 154(CWI), 168(LWI))

1) I will evacuate at once5) I will ask someone2) I will start to prepare for an evacuation

6) I will do nothing3) I will check weather information on TV

7) I can’t understand this information4) I will check outside my home8) other

Figure 5. Results of action patterns of respondents based on each type of information.
*CWI: Conventional weather information, LWI: Local weather information.

than the conventionally accepted significance level of
5% (3.841; n=1), which means that there are significant differences between CWI and LWI in evacuation
action. Also, the low chi-squared value of Pattern 4 isderived from the high rate of evacuation action based
on CWI, so the difference between them is less. This
result indicates that sufficient consideration of content
with local opinions is very important for LWI.
As described above, the influence on evacuation
action of residential area is examined below. Table 2
shows the result of evacuation action for each patternaccording to residential area and Figure 6 shows theresult of correspondence analysis of evacuation action
by the difference in weather information pattern andresidential areas based on the result shown in Table 2.
Furthermore, samples with no information on residential area are excluded from this analysis; this number
is comparably small. In this analysis, the contribution

rate of Dimension 1 (horizontal axis in Figure 6) is
83.7%. This is much higher than the 8.8% of Dimension 2 (vertical axis in Figure 6), and the cumulative
contribution rate is 92.5%. Thus, this analysis is sufficient to show the relationship among the results.
From Figure 6, the YES data (those who selectedevacuation action) in Area 4 (high-lying area far from
Miya River) is comparably far from each data item of
LWI and CWI, so evacuation action of the respondents in Area 4 is relatively less influenced by differences in information. This reason is thought to be that
Area 4 is geographically safer than other areas interms of flooding. However, the YES data in the otherareas is closer to the data of LWI, so the respondents
in other areas have a strong relationship between theirevacuation action and LWI. In fact, from the results ofTable 2, the evacuation action rates of the residents ofthese areas by LWI are clearly higher with most infor74

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERS

Table 2. Evacuation action if informed by the conventional weather information (CWI) system or the local
weather information (LWI) system
Information
Pattern

Weather
information
systemArea 1:
Low-lyingarea near
Miya River

Area 2:High-lying
area near
Miya River

Area 3:Low-lyingarea far from
Miya River

Area 4:High-lying
area far from
Miya River

Unknownabout
resident’s
area

Whether having selectedevacuation actions or not

YES

NO

YES

NO

YES

NO

YES

NO

YES NO

Pattern 1:
Local
indicators

CWI

9(20.9%)

34(79.1%)

8(11.1%)

64(88.9%)

2(20.0%)

8(80.0%)

0(0.0%)

25(100.0%)

0

4

LWI

33
(63.5%)

19(36.5%)

25(39.1%)

39(60.9%)

7(53.8%)

6(46.2%)

4(11.4%)

31(88.6%)

4

1

Pattern 2:

CWI

28(65.1%)

15(34.9%)

18(25.0%)

54(75.0%)

7(70.0%)

3(30.0%)

2(8.0%)

23(92.0%)

2

2

Intuition

LWI

41(82.0%)

9(18.0%)

34(53.1%)

30(46.9%)

9(64.3%)

5(35.7%)

12(34.3%)

23(65.7%)

50

Pattern 3:

CWI

21(48.8%)

22(51.2%)

15(20.8%)

57(79.2%)

5(50.0%)

5(50.0%)

4(16.0%)

21(84.0%)

3

1

Experience

LWI

30(60.0%)

20(40.0%)

29(43.9%)

37(56.1%)

8(61.5%)

5(38.5%)

6(18.2%)

27(81.8%)

4

1

Pattern 4:

CWI

28(65.1%)

15(34.9%)

29(39.7%)

44(60.3%)

6(60.0%)

4(40.0%)

10(41.7%)

14(58.3%)

40

Association

LWI

39(76.5%)

12(23.5%)

32(50.0%)

32(50.0%)

9(64.3%)

5(35.7%)

14(41.2%)

20(58.8%)

2

3* YES: Number of respondents who selected evacuation actions.
NO: Number of respondents who did not select evacuation actions.
** ( ): The figures in parentheses are the percentages of respondents with the same weather information patterns in the same residential areas.

mation patterns than those by CWI. In contrast, thepatterns of CWI are plotted near the NO data (those
who selected no evacuation action) except for Pattern
4 (Association). As stated above, the result of Pattern
4 of CWI shows a tendency of evacuation action closer to Pattern 4 of LWI, and Pattern 4 of CWI is plotted nearer the YES data than the other patterns of
CWI as shown in Figure 6.
Thus, the improvement in evacuation action due
to LWI is influenced by not only the content of LWI
but also the residential area.

This means that the LWI system can resolve theover-reliance on information discussed in Chapter 1.
By translating information from CWI to LWI, residents can be influenced to stop simply waiting for
further information and can be motivated to be awareof disaster risk. This effect will be enhanced if residents consider the content of LWI by themselves. The
sharing of LWI among residents can change feelings
from “I don’t want to evacuate alone” to “I will evacuate because other residents are also doing so.” However, even if LWI is shared, some residents will still
wait for further information. Some residents in the
low-lying areas near Miya River selected options other than evacuation actions. From this result, awareness of disaster risk does not fully reach residents
through only the LWI used in this survey. To understand this further, we compared responses in common

4.4. Comparison among patterns
The expressions of each LWI item are different, but incommon LWI has the possibility of increasing theevacuation rate by expressing weather information inplain and familiar expressions.
75

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORI

3

2

Dimension 2 (8.8%)

NO(Area4)

LWI_1
1

LWI_3

CWI_2
-3

-2
CWI_1

NO(Area3)
NO(Area1) 0-1
0

YES(Area3)
YES(Area1)
LWI_2
YES(Area2)
1
2

3

LWI_4

CWI_3
NO(Area2)
-1
CWI_4
-2

YES(Area4)-3
Dimension 1 (83.7%)

Figure 6. Result of correspondence analysis on evacuation action based on difference in weather information
pattern and residential area.
* YES: Selected evacuation actions; NO: Did not select evacuation actions.
** CWI: Conventional weather information; LWI: Local weather information.
*** Area 1: Low-lying area near Miya River; Area 2: High-lying area near Miya River; Area 3: Low-lying
area far from Miya River; Area 4: High-lying area far from Miya River.
**** The figures in parentheses on each axis are the contribution rates.
among such respondents. The 56 peop1e who selected
an evacuation action with LWI for all patterns werecompared with the 65 peop1e who did not select anevacuation action in at least one LWI pattern. The result shows that the latter respondents had the following characteristics.

The patterns used in this survey are examples of
LWI, and the rate of evacuation actions may dependon the content and expression of the LWI. Therefore,
the difference in rate of evacuation actions in Figure 5
is important, and the difference among them for eachpattern is more noticeable. This result may be important in formulating concrete contents of LWI to induce action during a disaster by using different content and expression. This should be analyzed
systematically in future studies.

(1) They were slow to realize the danger of Typhoon 12 of 2011.
(2) They tended to select a no evacuation option inseveral patterns.
(3) They were younger than average, mostly intheir 40s; conversely, there were few residents
over 80 years old.
(4) Men were overrepresented.
(5) Employed residents were overrepresented.

4.5. Toward collaboration on LWI between
weather forecasters and weather information
users
The survey results presented in the previous sections
suggest a hopeful future vision of producing and sharing weather information. This study suggests that local
and familiar weather information, or LWI, is produced
successfully through cross-sectional collaboration
among divergent stakeholders, including not only
weather forecasters but also local government officers

This tendency was seen for these residents with CWI,
too. This result can be important to discovering why
LWI does not lead to evacuation actions for some residents.
76

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERS

and local residents. As the above survey shows, a new
system of risk communication among relevant groups,
i.e., collaboration on LWI, can assist in constructing
appropriate consciousness of disaster risk and reflecting local disaster characteristics in weather information
through a process of producing and sharing LWI. Earlier reaction to a disaster by appropriate consciousness
can be realized, so that it might be possible for collaboration on LWI to reduce disaster damage more effectively than the conventional top-down-type weather information.
As discussed in Chapter 2, severe weather information is announced by the JMA in its role as a Japanese public agency, and this system biases risk communication in weather information toward thethinking of the weather forecaster. In contrast to thisunidirectional style of risk communication, this collaborative system of LWI is not a strengthening of theconventional system of weather information in Chapter 2 and does not premise that weather information issomething to be received like many other actions andresearches in some areas. Such a collaborative process
allows both weather information producers and users
to be more familiar with a different way of thinking,and for knowledge and information gaps between
them to be understood. The result of this study suggests that a joint creating and sharing process of LWI
will be one possible way to bridge the gap and tocommunicate disaster risks more efficiently among
relevant groups.
Based on this assumption, in this section, the authors will show a sample plan for a new collaborative
framework to produce and to share LWI, in whichsignificant stakeholders are expected to play different
roles, depending on the circumstances and their relationships (see Table 3).
Table 3 shows one example of the process of collaboration on LWI. This plan has six main stages:
preparation, setting of LWI content, start of use, use
during ordinary times, use during severe weather, and
LWI updates. At first, relevant groups gather at a preparatory meeting and ensure development of future
process. As the next step, local residents, who know
the local characteristics well, select a method of setting the contents of LWI and take part in consideringand setting the contents of LWI. For example, residents talk about disaster situations to watch carefullyin daily life and select necessary information for theircommunity. Local meteorological offices and private
weather companies, who know weather information
well, consider meteorological conditions that correspond to the contents of LWI set by the residents andjudge the availability of specific LWI from past meteorological data and the latest weather information
technologies. Local governments check the validity
and adequacy of the LWI with comparisons of local
disaster risks and, if necessary, mediate among therelevant groups as the public office responsible for disaster prevention. When meteorological conditions
match those for specific LWI, the relevant groups
share the agreed LWI and take action appropriate forthe LWI. In addition, it is hoped that the set contentsof LWI will be updated periodically. These processes
produce smoother risk communication of disasterthrough LWI and build a common consciousness of
disaster risk among relevant groups.
Improved weather observation technologies andrefined resolution of weather information are approaching the scale of local disaster phenomena of thekind that residents notice such as phenomena of 1-km
scale or 100-m scale. For example, rainfall observation data from X-band multi-parameter radar is available at the 100-m scale, and information on sedimentdisaster is available at the 1-km scale. At present,such information has imperfect accuracy, but the utility of this type of information in assessing local disaster risk is increasing. By using such new information
effectively, knowledge of residents about local disasters can be incorporated into weather information.
This improvement supports the above collaboration
on LWI.
This collaborative system connects information
demanded by residents to weather information produced by weather forecasters. So both the familiarityand locality produced by this system have some benefits.
First, this leads to enhanced understanding of
weather information and is expected to lead to improvement in informed consent regarding weather information through the relationship with producing theinformation. Second, even if a disaster is a rare phenomenon and its related weather information is seldom
announced, this system can intuitively communicate
the risk to relevant members by the characteristics of
LWI such as locality and familiarity. Thus, LWI canovercome the social confusion associated with rarity.
77

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORI

Table 3. A plan of collaboration on LWI
Main Participant
Stage

Preparation

Setting of
LWI
content

Resident

Local
government

Local
meteorologicaloffice*Preparatory meeting for use of LWI among relevant groups

〇

〇

〇

Adjustment in the community for use of LWI〇

Selection of method for LWI content (e.g., by
workshop, voting, or consensus of opinion ineach community)〇

LWI content set by selected method〇〇〇

Action

LWI content reviewed and discussed
Consideration of meteorological conditions corresponding to LWI content and judgment ofavailability of LWI〇

Selection of method of sharing LWI〇

Start of use

Confirmation of method of using LWI in a community〇

Ordinary
times

Checking of LWI in daily life〇

Periodic disaster drills using LWI〇

Severeweather〇Checking of meteorological conditions set for
LWI

〇

〇

Announcing and sharing LWI (sharing disaster
risk)

〇

〇

〇

Actions appropriate for specific LWI

〇

〇

〇

Regular checking and renewal of LWI according
to community and social situation〇〇〇

LWI updates LWI updates reviewed and discussed
Regular review of meteorological conditions for
LWI〇*Including private weather companies.

Next, residents create weather information with relevant members, so actions in response to disaster may
be improved by ownership of this information. Last,
the fact that the community periodically considers andagrees on the content of LWI will revitalize and passdown a local culture of disaster mitigation. The authors
will verify these benefits in future studies.
This suggested collaboration is an exploration ofa new system of weather information produced byrisk communication of disaster through a collaborative process of considering and using LWI.

5. Summary
An attempt to connect disaster risk awareness between weather information users and weather forecasters has been studied around Miya River in Ise
City.
As a survey before the study, the effects on evacuation actions of four patterns of LWI were researched among all households in the Tsujikuru area.
As a result, a strong relationship between evacuation
action and the patterns of LWI except for Pattern 4(Association) were found, so sharing LWI before a di78

COLLABORATION ON LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION BETWEEN WEATHER FORECASTERS AND WEATHER INFORMATION USERS

saster can enhance awareness of disaster risk, solve
the problem of over-reliance on information, and reduce ambivalence about evacuation.
Based on this result, a framework for collaboration on LWI among relevant groups was introduced in
Subsection 4.5.
The conventional weather information systemrelies heavily on the JMA and unidirectional flowfrom local meteorological offices to residents. Thisunidirectional flow is too strong in light of information on disaster risk communications. Most past improvements to weather information have been basedon this unidirectional relationship and have served tostrengthen this flow and relationship. In contrast, the
new system of suggested collaboration on LWI bi-directionally connects stakeholders through LWI and
produces a new relationship among them. The system
explores a new method of communicating disasterrisks among relevant groups, such as residents, local
governments, and local meteorological offices,
through the process of considering and using LWI. By
connecting disaster risks announced by weather forecasters and local disaster known by residents throughcollaboration on LWI, risk communication can be facilitated and a common awareness of disaster risk canbe produced. In addition, this new system will enhance understanding of weather information amongresidents and result in a feeling of ownership of LWI.
This improves actions during disasters, and development and inheritance of a local disaster culture is expected.
At present, the contents of LWI are under consideration based on the opinions of residents. In futurestudies, meteorological conditions strongly related tothe contents of LWI will be established and the effectof collaboration on LWI will be verified through practice in cooperation with relevant groups.

tice with advanced disaster research and community
activity for disaster prevention” (principle investigator: K. Yamori), funded by the Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.
References
Araki, H., 2004. Disasters in Ise City based on past records(Hikari Printing and Publication Co., Ltd).
Asada, J., Katada, T., Okajima, D., and Kobatake S., 2001.
A study on providing information to make inhabitants
understand refuge information at the time of a flood,
Japanese Journal of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering, Vol.45, 37-42.
Forecast Department, 2010. Improvement of weather warnings of heavy rain and storm, press release (Forecast
Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency).
Forecast Department, 2012. Improvement of weather information in the rainy season in 2012, press release (Forecast Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency).
Hirakawa, H., Tsuchida, M., and Tsuchiya, T., 2011. Education in environmental risk management (program edition), Theory of Risk Communication (Osaka University Press).
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2007. Improvement of announcement format of flood forecasts, press release(Water and Disaster Management Bureau of Ministryof Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism andForecast Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency).
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2011. Results of the research“Research into utilization of severe weather information” (Japan Meteorological Agency).
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2013. Publications of the
Law revising a part of Meteorological Service Act andMinistry of National Land and Transportation Establishment Act, press release (Japan Meteorological
Agency).

Acknowledgements

Japan Meteorological Agency, 2013. Draft of a report by aconference on improvement of severe weather infor-

The authors thank the residents who participated in
the survey, the officials of Ise City, the officials of the
Tsu local meteorological office, and the officials of
the Mie Office of Rivers and National Highways. This
research was supported in part by the special project“Research into construction of society with future disaster prevention and reduction in damage in preparation for huge earthquakes and tsunamis through prac-mation, Conference document on improvement of severe weather information (Japan Meteorological Agency).
Katada, T., 2009. For proactive utilization of disaster information, special issue: Literacy of disaster information,
Journal of Disaster Information Studies, Vol.7, 1.
Katada, T. and Kanai, M., 2009. Disaster risk communication to promote a proactive attitude to disaster preven-79

K. TAKENOUCHI, Y. KAWATA, C. NAKANISHI, K. YAMORItion, special issue: Literacy of disaster information,

ing simulation, special issue: Special number of large-

Journal of Disaster Information Studies, Vol.7, 22-27.

scale computer simulations, System/Control/Information, Vol.48(7), 261-266.

Katada, T., Kodama, M., Kuwasawa, N., and Koshimura, S.,
2005. Issues of residents’ consciousness and evacua-

Tamura, K., 2009. The issue of people requiring assistancetion from tsunami—From the questionnaire survey induring a disaster in the heavy rainfall at the end of Au-

Kesennuma City, Miyagi Pref. after the earthquake ofgust 2008, special issue: Torrential rainfall derived

Miyagiken-oki, 2003, Journal of the Japan Society offrom city factors in 2008, Fire Safety & Disaster Pre-

Civil Engineers, No.789/II-71, 93-104.

paredness, Vol.96, 33-37.

Katada, T. and Oikawa, Y., 2011. Actual situation of an in-

Tanaka K., Kato T., 2011. Perceived danger can beundation process and inhabitants’ behavior in a heavy

influenced by how emergency information is ex-

rainfall disaster around the Nonami area, Nagoya City,

pressed, Japanese Journal of Cognitive Psychology,
Vol.9(1), 1-7.

Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol.7, 59-

Tatehira, S., 2006. Start of announcement of sediment disas-64.

ter risk information: Introduction of works on weather,

Katada, T., Oikawa, Y. and Kodama, M., 2005. Study on the

Weather, Vol.53(1), 43-45.

determination process of human behavior in flood di-Transportation Committee in the Diet, 1993. Supplementarysaster, Journal of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers,

resolution to the bill of the Law revising a part of Me-

No.786/ Ⅳ -67, 77-88.

teorological Service Act, No.6 (126th Transportation

Kondo, S., Yamori, K., and Okumura, Y., 2011. The reality

Committee in the Diet).

of the 2010 Chile tsunami as a media event—Content

Ushiyama, M., Imamura, F., Katada, T., and Yoshida, K.,analysis of the NHK-TV reporting, Journal of Disaster2004. Investigation of people’s behavior in a heavy

Information Studies, Vol.9, 60-70.
Nakayachi, K., 2012. Social psychology of risk—For con-rainfall disaster in a highly flood disaster information

struction of human understanding and relief

age: A case study on typhoon No.0206 July, 2002,(Yuhikaku).

Journal of Japan Society of Hydrology & Water Resources, Vol.17, No.2, 150-158.

Oikawa, Y., Kodama. M., and Katada. T., 2005. Study on
residents’ intention to acquire disaster information in

Yamori, K., 2009. Double bind of disaster information, spe-the process of the flood disaster, Journal of the Japancial issue: Literacy of disaster information, Journal ofSociety of Civil Engineers, No.786/ Ⅳ -67, 89-101.

Disaster Information Studies, Vol.7, 28-33.

Sekiya, N., 2011. Disaster information studies surpass the

Yoshii, H., 2006. Relationship between evacuation adviso-

Aristoteles?, special issue: A word to disaster informa-ries/evacuation directives and inhabitants’ evacuation

tion studies—Suggestion from relevant research re-action—Study from a field damaged by flood, special

gions, Journal of Disaster Information Studies, Vol.9,

issue: How does an increase in disaster in a few years

14-16.

change Japanese disaster prevention?, Journal of Disaster Information Studies, Vol.4, 13-22.

Takeuchi, Y., 2004. More enhanced meteorological predict-80