High Speed Rail in Taiwan

Dr. S.K. Jason Chang
Professor, Dept of Civil Engineering
Director, Advanced Public Transport Research Center
National Taiwan University
skchang@ntu.edu.tw
Roundtable on
The Economics of Investment in High Speed RailNew Delhi, India, December 18~19, 2013
Page 1

Agenda1. Development of Taiwan High Speed Rail
2. Operation of Taiwan High Speed Rail
3. Financial Sustainability
4. Governance Sustainability
5. Concluding Remarks

Page 2

94% of Taiwan’s Population Live
Along the West Corridor (20% of land)
TaipeiPopulation / k㎡
Urbanization
phenomenon/issue ~But, at least, we
identified a corridor
which can support theHSR.

>150005000-15000
3000-5000
1000-3000
500-1000
300-500
100-300<100Hsinchu
Taichung

Tainan &Kaohsiung

Page 3

Travel Time Comparison among Modes
TaipeiTaipei to Kaohsiung (345 km)
Secondary Highway ( 8 –10 hours )*Freeway ( 5 – 6 hours )*Taichung

Traditional Railway ( 5 – 8 hours )1.

Air ( 50min ) 2.

Check in 20 min in advance
Only 2 flights/week (after theHSR)High Speed Rail (90 min)

Kaohsiung* Without Considering Traffic Congestion
Page 4

Taiwan High Speed Rail台北站 Taipei板橋站 Banciao
桃園站 Taoyuan
新竹站 Hsinchu

南港站Nankang(Mar. 2011)
六家基地Lioujia Depot

苗栗站 Miaoli
台中站 Taichung烏日基地Wurih Depot

彰化站 Changhua
雲林站 Yunlin

嘉義站 Chiayi
台南站 Tainan
左營站 Zuoying

太保基地Taipao Depot

燕巢總機廠
Yanchao Main Workshop
左營基地Zuoying Depot

Total length: 345 km
Page 5

Taiwan High Speed Rail Development
YearMilestones

1974.4

The first high speed rail project conducted by Taiwan Railway
Administration

1987.4.2

Feasibility study of HSR conducted by Ministry ofTransportation and Communications, as part of integrated
public transportation systems with metro in urban areas

1990.3.15

Confirmation of the feasible plans and a preliminary route isrecommended based on alternatives analysis

1990.4.12

The preliminary plan is approved by the Central Government

1991.10.1

Revised plan was proposed and evaluated due to the National
Plan on development of new towns and industrial parks

1992.6.25

Approval of the revised plan

1993.7

PPP Approach is requested by the Congress with a minimum
40% of investment from private sector

1996.10.29

Call for Proposal of the BOT Project announced by MOTC

1997.9.25

Taiwan High Speed Rail Consortium obtained the concession

1998.7.23

Signing ceremony of the BOT Project (MOTC and THSRC)

Copyright © 2009 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.

Page 6

Construction
C210
桃園
C215 台北

新竹
C220
苗栗
C230
C240
台中
彰化
雲林

C250
C260

 Total 345KM
Tunnel provided by Government

 Total Budget: US$16B~17B
Embankment 9.4%(31km)
Tunnel 14.2%(47km)

C270

嘉義
C280

Elevated Bridge
76.4%(252km)

C291
台南

C295

左營 C296

Page 7

MOSTLY Elevated! ~Page 8

Demand Forecasting
35320

298
270

30
231
1000 people/day

25(<100km) (>200km)

20 14827% 33%

15Real2012

1040%(100-200km)

52007

02005
2003
2008
Source: THSRC, 2002.05

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033
Page 9

Taipei Station

Page 10

Banciao StationPage 11

HSR Taoyuan Station

Page 12HSR Hsinchu Station

Page 13

HSR Taichung StationPage 14

HSR Chiayi Station

Page 15

HSR Tainan Station

Page 16

Zuoying Station

Page 17

Operation Speed 300 KPH
Taipei – Taichung 45 min
Taipei – Zuoying 90 min

Copyright © 2007 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.
All Contents Confidential.
Page 18

Taiwan HSR Operation(1/3)
Operation Plan- Stopping Pattern

Stop Pattern

Taipei Bain- TaoChiao Yuan

Xin-Ju Miao- TaiLi
JungZhang- YunHwa
Ling

ChiaYiTaiNan

ZuoYing

TravelTime(min)

A80

B91

C117

D136

E65

Tentative Daily Frequency

2007： 60
2013：100
2033：120
Page 19

Taiwan HSR Operation (2/3) 2007.01.05~2013.10.31
Total Train Service

300,487

No. of Passengers

241,190,908

Passenger-km

48.85 billion

Loading Factor

56.00 %

Page 20

Taiwan HSR Operation(3/3) 2007.01.05~2013.10.31
Service Reliability

99.94%

Service Punctuality

99.36% (delay< 5min)

Average Delay Time

0.25 minNo. of Operation Accident0Page 21

Growth of Passenger Volume
Daily Volume
2/5
春節
190,596

Daily Vol. (Max)
200,000
180,000

160,000
140,000

Weekend Vol. (Ave.)

10/12
雙十假期

Daily Vol. (Ave.)

161,884

2/16
春節

190,596

160,162

Weekday Vol. (Ave.)

139,340
122,846

120,000

110,476

100,000
80,00060,00040,00020,0000

2007/1/5
通車營運

2007

2008

Copyright © 2006 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.

2009

2010

2011

Page 22

140,000

120,000

100,000
98,36280,00060,00040,00020,00043,002
25,88529,66035,88037,261
41,37445,992
44,31245,57546,72855,25764,60963,14972,24474,32084,851
83,981
84,58890,70995,90882,95092,12491,39085,75189,89385,581
85,41986,09888,765
81,216
95,39887,62281,362
91,58393,822
96,06792,604
108,832
94,784
103,013103,626
99,439101,957
102,854
95,526
100,464
103,830
108,165
101,765
122,846
105,107
115,885
110,618
112,680
119,067
112,934
115,829
119,425
118,014
119,087
127,115
117,305
116,540
118,983
115,411116,081
125,899
120,328
123,204
123,435
125,400
129,784
117,659
141,312
136,951
130,447
125,964
129,691
130,721
133,449
132,526
125,366

Growth of Passenger Volume

假日平均日運量

106,656

2007
2008
2009

Copyright © 2013 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.
2010

2007.01.05~2013.10.31

人次/日
180,000

平均日運量
162,450

160,000
145,775

2011

148,511

139,116

110,640

42,86530,190001020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910
2012
2013

Page 23

Growth of Daily Frequency
Trains/Day

160
140

126
113

120

100

91

143
140 142137
134
128 130

114

106

116

121

74
62
60 50
38
40

Weekend
146

150

123

124
Weekday

80

20

Copyright © 2009 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.

13.09.02

10.10.01

10.07.01

10.01.08

09.07.01

09.03.16

08.11.30

08.07.04

07.03.31
07.06.01
07.07.27
07.09.14
07.11.09
08.01.18

0Page 24

Vehicle: 700T
Standard

Business

Page 25

Intercity Travel Demand
Along Taiwan’s Western Corridor
Unit:million passenger trip/year

225

250

200

150

189

180

18%

3%

2%

36%

100

PublicTransport

22%

8%
33%

（2007）

78%
Private Car

30%

PublicTransport

HSR（2011）

Airline

5061%

Bus

57%

52%

Railway

30%

70%
Private Car02006

2007

2011

Source:”THI Consultants, Inc” ,2008 & THSRC

Page 26

Market Share ofIntercity Travel Demand
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Market Share 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

32

High Speed Rail

Aviation

Highway Bus

Private AutomobileConventional Rail

6192

122

153

183

214245275

306336

Travel Distance (KM)
Based on Study on 2003.05

Note: Only for Trips from TaipeiPage 27

Sustainable Mobility:
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission
CO2 Emission

Energy Consumption

HSR

100%

100%

26.7g/passenger-kilometer

8.7ml/passenger-kilometer

Railway

101%

103%

27g/passenger-kilometer

9ml/passenger-kilometer

Bus

262%

287%
25ml/passenger-kilometer

70g/passenger-kilometer

397%

471%

Private Car
41ml/passenger-kilometer

106g/passenger-kilometer

697%

805%

Airplane
70ml/passenger-kilometer

186g/passenger-kilometer

Page 28Socio-Economic Impact of THSR (2007.01.05~2009.05.31)
Energy Saving(Compare to Private Car)
420 Thousand Kilo-Liters oil equivalent or US$295 Million

Emission Reducing( Compare to Private Car)
1.0 Million Tons CO2 or 70,000 hectares Forest Parks

Time Saving
90 Million Hours = US$480 Million

Economic Development and Competitiveness
Safety, Reliability & Comfort Services
Page 29

National Geographic:-Top 10 Winter Travels
Copyright © 2008 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.

Page 30

Taiwan Western Corridor– One-Day Living Circle
PORT

Railway+Highways

FreewayHigh Speed Rail

19th Century

1900~19501970s

21st CenturyPage 31

Transfer Service Strategic Planningof Taiwan High Speed RailPlanning Strategy and Guidelines
1. Internalization of Transfer and Feeder Facilities
2. Intermodal Station: Multiple Alternatives
3. Priority of Public Transport Modes

Page 32

PPP Model – The BOT
Build
Obtain the Land

Government

OperateTransfer

Design andConstruction of
Nangang-Banqiao
SectionProject Management and Oversee

Operation Concession (35 Years)& Construction
THSRC

Right for Affiliated Business (35 Years)
Land Development Right (50 Years): 500m Circle
2 ~ 3 km  Central and Local government to develop

Copyright © 2006 Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation.
All Contents Confidential.

Page 33

Financial Sustainability
 Investment (including: facilities constructed before
the concession; Direct $ (gov. funds)  shareholder) Loan from State Banks (due to global economy
downturn, no foreign bank involved)
 Re-negotiation of the Interest Rate (due to lowridership at beginning phase of HSR operation)
 Re-calculation of Depreciation (linear  performancebased)
Page 34

Government vs. Private Investment
 Total Cost: 17 B (USD)

TaiwanGovernment’sInvolvement(including: preHSR
construction,
direct funding as
stakeholder)3.513.6(In Billion USD)

“Zero Investment”
Promised byTHSRC at thebidding phaseTaiwan HSRCorporation
Investment

At the end, THSRC
DOES plan to buy
out the gov. shareafter making
profit.

Financial Independence
Page 35

Governance Sustainability
 Create an Institutional Framework to make HSR happen
 The HSR Bureau oversees the THSRC to ensure the quality(e.g., Reliability, Loading factor)
 Law/Regulation enacted to encourage private sector’s
investment
 Urban Planning and Land Development with help from Local

Government
 HSR Stations at remote area  for purpose of developing
new town
 Taipei and Kaohsiung Stations  Joint Development withTOD concept
Page 36

Concluding Remarks
1. Governance and Financial Sustainability is crucial for
Mega Infrastructure Project
2. Taiwan’s PPP Business Model  bring private sector’s
investment, efficiency on construction, innovative
operation and marketing, total budget is not booming, etc.
3. Profitability is expected; however, to clearly identify theexternal benefits of HSR is crucial for development.
4. Government Step-in  in some way, it solved someproblems, however..
 Bureaucracy got introduced
 Still “institutional barriers” between local and central
government
 so, the new towns are not fully developed.
 so, station development & TOD are not as expected.
Page 37

Thank you ~Q & A

Page 38