Research Program B: Bottom-up Review of Security Policy
Sub-Project B-2: The Korean Peninsula in an‘Age of Uncertainty’ andJapan’s Foreign/Security Policy
1. Outline
North Korea’s rapid (though illegal) development of missile technology and its
use of‘progress’ in this regard to demonstrate its national strength mean thatJapan cannot be a ‘safe rear base’ as long as the situation on the Korean
peninsula remains fluid. Recent political and diplomatic developments in theROK are potential factors for instability in Japan-US-ROK security cooperation,
often called a ‘quasi-alliance,’ that could keep it from functioning as a soundpublic good in Northeast Asia. Given this perspective, the Korean peninsula isone of the most vital areas for Japan’s foreign/security policy, and it will be
crucial for policy-making not only to analyze the latest situation in North/SouthKorea from various perspectives but also to ‘update’ the information from thoseanalyses.
The Korean peninsula’s importance for Japan as noted above attracts theattention of Japanese observers to the latest developments, and thisimportance always causes their interest to be drawn to the latest moment.
However, this presents the risk that observers will be content simply to describethe ‘topography’ of the current situation, possibly misleading them into a
short-sighted attitude that limits their interest only to specific (popular) issues
and keeps them from acknowledging other issues and correlations betweenissues. This myopic perspective can lead to a fragmentation of knowledge andexert an influence on policy-making.
Accordingly, analyzing issues pertaining to the Korean peninsula demands thatanalysts, especially those in Japan, maintain consistency in two regards
simultaneously: ‘subtlety’ in individual analysis and ‘comprehensiveness’ in
integrating various realms. This inductive attitude toward analysis is critical forexperts and policymakers in Japan to draw further political implications.
In adopting this approach to studying the Korean peninsula, this research group
has identified three principal topics with diplomatic and social significance forJapan – the ROK’s domestic, economic, and diplomatic circumstances; thedegree of genuine threat posed by the DPRK and possible countermeasures;and the effectiveness of, and problems with, the economic sanctions on theDPRK – and attempts a multi-layered approach to each topic. This researchgroup’s primary efforts will be focused on analyzing the latest circumstances onthe Korean peninsula from various aspects (e.g., domestic, economic, foreignand security policies) with particular emphasis on the correlations between them,and on making more comprehensive policy recommendations based on thoseanalyses. Another (and essential) goal of the group will be to contribute throughits research activities to achieving the overall objectives of Research Program B:determining the ‘needs’ of Japan’s foreign/security policy from inside (domesticviews) and outside (international context) and making bottom-up examinations .
2. Research Organization
Project leader:
Masao OKONOGI, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
Members:
Yukiko FUKAGAWA, Professor, Waseda University
Katsuhisa FURUKAWA, former member of UN Panel of Experts establishedpursuant to Resolution 1874
Hisashi HIRAI, Visiting Editorialist, Kyodo News
Shunji HIRAIWA, Professor, Nanzan University
Yukihiro HOTTA, Research Fellow, The Kazankai Foundation
Tomoki IIMURA, Research Fellow, JIIA
Hajime IZUMI, Professor, Institute for International Strategy, Tokyo International
University
Hideya KURATA, Professor, National Defense Academy; Adjunct Fellow, JIIA
Mitsuhiro MIMURA, Senior Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institutefor Northeast Asia (ERINA)
Junya NISHINO, Professor, Keio University
Hideki OKUZONO, Associate Professor, University of Shizuoka
Yasuyo SAKATA, Professor, Kanda University of International Studies
Takeshi WATANABE, Senior Research Fellow, National Institute for Defense
Studies, Ministry of Defense, Japan