社会技術研究論文集

Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

ANALYSIS OF PHOSPHORUS DEPENDENCY
IN ASIA
Elizabeth WEBECK1, Kazuyo MATSUBAE2, Kenichi NAKAJIMA3,
Keisuke NANSAI4, Tetsuya NAGASAKA5
1Assoc. Prof., Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University,(Email: e-webeck@material.tohoku.ac.jp)
2Ph.D.(Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University,(Email: matsubae@m.tohoku.ac.jp)
3Ph.D.(Eng.), Senior Researcher, National Institute of Environmental Studies,(Email: nakajima.kenichi@nies.go.jp)
4Ph.D.(Eng. Sci.), Senior Researcher, National Institute of Environmental Studies,(Email: nansai.keisuke@nies.go.jp)
5Ph.D.(Eng.), Prof., Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University,(Email: t-nagasaka@m.tohoku.ac.jp)
The BACI trade statistics for 2005 were analyzed to determine the dependency of Asian countries on phosphorus,
in particular for phosphorus ore, yellow phosphorus, chemicals, and fertilizers. The data revealed a complex set ofpatterns, with some countries relying heavily on just one or two countries to meet their commodity needs, and others
drawing from a wide range of sources. In many cases, a strong dependency was noted on a country which itself washeavily dependent on another source for its commodity needs. Considering the geopolitical issues at hand, it isessential that special attention is paid to maintaining a stable supply of phosphorus to ensure stability in agricultural
production as well as in the many industries which use chemicals containing phosphorus..

Keywords: Phosphorus, Dependency ratio, Material Flow Analysis, International trade1.

Introduction

five producers are Russia, Tunisia, Jordan, Brazil, and Egypt.
It is estimated that Morocco accounts for more than one thirdof all the phosphate rock reserves in the world. With nophosphate reserves of its own 2), all of Japan’s phosphorus
needs must be met by importing. This situation is typical ofmany Asian countries. Notable among them is India, with its
limited phosphate reserves and phosphorus poor soil, which
therefore has a heavy dependence on phosphorus imports(85%) to feed its burgeoning population.
The situation of phosphorus is often likened to that of oil. It
is unevenly distributed, largely in parts of the world which are
not considered stable either geopolitically or economically3).
The United States no longer exports phosphate ore, and theChinese government has imposed an export quota on it 4,7).
However, both countries are large exporters of value-added
product, in the form of yellow phosphorus, chemicals forphosphate fertilizers, and phosphate fertilizers. The wisdomof long term reliance on exports from these countries has beencalled into question, with some environmental activists
predicting that US supplies may be exhausted by 2030. Indeed,
despite its large reserves, some 10% of US phosphorus isreportedly imported from Morocco. As the world’s largest
agricultural producer, fertilizer consumption in the UnitedStates is extremely high. In the case of China, the situation

Since phosphorus is essential for cell growth, it is an absolute
requirement for all living things. As one of the main
components of DNA, RNA, and ATP in animal and plantbodies, there is no substitute for phosphorus in agriculture1).
The primary source of phosphorus is mined phosphate rock,most of which is processed to produce fertilizer. Of the 18.9
million metric tons of phosphorus produced annually almost
75% is allocated to fertilizer production 2). Phosphorus is also
used in industrial products such as fire retardants, glues, foodadditives, and surface preparation agents. With phosphorus soclosely related to all aspects of our lives, it is reasonable toargue that our modern lives are dependent on the mining,processing and use of phosphate as phosphorus.
Because phosphorous is a scarce and irreplaceable resource
and the demand in developed countries is high and rising, thesecurity of phosphorous is an urgent issue1,3,4). With high grade
phosphate ore deposits rapidly disappearing, it has beensuggested that the economically available deposits may be
exhausted within 100 years4,5,6).
The three largest producers of phosphorus ore are China(37%), the USA (15%), and Morocco (15%), which accountfor two thirds of all the phosphate rock mined 8). The next top

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Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014varied from commodity to commodity. The 2005 BACI
statistics were analyzed to ascertain which countries were key
players, with particular focus on the Asian region. Since
China and India are the two biggest economies in Asia, thetrade statistics relevant to these countries were analyzed closely.
Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, as the three next largest
economies, were also given special attention.

may be akin to that of rare earth metals, where China may wellseek to ensure its phosphate ore is available for domestic
consumption rather than export it, or otherwise, impose hightariffs on phosphorus exports. Indeed, a tariff was imposed in
2008, temporarily resulting in a huge price hike in phosphate
ore worldwide.
The stocks and flows of phosphorous have beenwell-summarized from global perspectives 9-11). National andregional wide case studies have been done indicating the
P-flows in, Japan12, 13), in China14, 15), and other regions16-18),
while little analysis on the international network of the P trade
has been published.
Ultimately, the importance of phosphorus as a resource is
expected to grow over time. The two and a half fold increase in
the commodity price of P-ore (phosphate ore) from 1995 to2010 reflects the increased demand and diminished supply of
P-ore by earthquake in southwest China in 20088). Added to the
problems that are associated with ever higher demand and costs,
geopolitics will play a significant role in the availability ofphosphorus to meet local demand in most countries. In order toassess the phosphorus dependency of Asian countries, and the
top 5 Asian economies in particular (China, India, Japan, South
Korea and Indonesia), trade statistics have been analyzed andtheir dependency assessed by the HS code with a particularfocus on phosphorus ore, yellow phosphorus, phosphatechemicals used in fertilizer production and on phosphate
fertilizers. The 2005 statistics were chosen because 2005 is themost recent year for which both a set of full trade data and aJapanese Input Output Table is available. In the light of thefindings regarding dependency, the geopolitical risks and ideas
to reduce dependency are discussed.

2.

Table 1 Commodities and its phosphorus contents
Commodities
Phosphate ore
Yellow phosphorus

Phosphorus
compounds

Fertilizer
products

1. Diphosphorus pentaoxide
2. Phosphoric acid and polyphosphoric acids
3. Sulphides of non-metals except carbon disulphide
4. Phosphinates and phosphonates
5. Mono- or di-sodium phosphates
6. Trisodium phosphate
7. Potassium phosphates
8. Calcium hydrogen-orthophosphate
9. Calcium phosphates except hydrogen-orthophosphate
10.Phosphates of metals nes
11.Sodium triphosphate
12.Polyphosphates of metals except sodium triphosphate
13.Phosphides, whether/not
14.Phosphoric esters, their salts and derivatives
15.Thiophosphoric esters(phosphorothioates),salts,derivs
16.Lecithins and other phosphoaminolipids
1. Animal or vegetable fertilizers, in packs >10 kg
2. Superphosphates, in packs >10 kg
3. Phosphatic fertilizers, mixes, nes, pack >10kg
4. Fertilizer mixes in tablets etc or in packs <10 kg
5. Nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium fertilizers, pack >10kg
6. Diammonium phosphate, in packs >10 kg
7. Monoammonium phosphate & mix with diammonium,<=10 kg
8. Fertilizers with nitrates and phosphates, nes, <=10kg
9. Fertilizers with nitrogen and phosphorus nes, <=10kg
10.Fertilizers containing phosphorus & potassium,<=10kg11.Fertilizers, mixes, nes

HS CodeP contents

25101025102028047013.46%
100%

280910,280920,281390,283510,283522,283523,283524,283525,283526,283529,283531,283539,284800,291900,292010,292320310100,310310,310390,310510,310520,310530,310540,310551,310559,310560,3105901. 42.33%
2. 26.87%
3. 56.34%
4. 21.78%
5. 23.81%
6. 18.89%
7. 14.59%
8. 22.76%
9. 24.38%
10. 21.04%
11. 25.25%
12. 20.74%
13. 30.45%
14. 10.00%
15. 19.86%
16. 4.23%
1. 11.35%
2. 7.42%
3. 11.38%
4. 12.90%
5. 2.73%
6. 22.29%
7. 25.59%
8. 19.75%
9. 12.90%
10. 2.73%
11. 12.90%

2.2. Settings
Equation (1) is used to estimate phosphorus flow following
commodities.

Pij = Tij ∗ (1 − Wij ) ∗ Contij(1)

Note that Pij, Tij, Wij, and Contij refer to, respectively, theamount of phosphorus flowing to country j (or from country j)following commodity i, the amount of commodity i flowing(import volume or export volume of country j, referring to
BACI data), the water content of commodity i, and thephosphorus content of commodity i (Wij and Contij are
estimated with reference to existing databases20-22)). The
phosphorus containing commodities analyzed in this study andtheir P contents are listed in Table 1.

Data and Settings

2.1. DataFirstly, material flow of phosphorus for each commodity andcountry is estimated. 231 countries are set in BACI (Base pourl'Analyse du Commerce International) and 286 commodities
are extracted from the HS code19). All data used in this study
are from 2005. Commodities used in this study are separated
into three categories (Table 1), based on phosphorus flow fromoverseas to Japan, as estimated by Matsubae et al. 13).
The 2005 BACI estimates indicate that a total of 5million
tons of P-ore was traded, 222.5 kilotons of yellow phosphorus
was traded, 3.1 million tons of phosphorus in chemical productwas traded, and another 6.2 million tons of phosphorus wastraded in agricultural fertilizer. The key players in this trade

2.3. Dependency ratio
In order to determine the dependency of import countries fortheir phosphate ore, yellow phosphorus, phosphorus inchemicals and their phosphorus in fertilizers, the dependency
ratio, S, was calculated using the following equation,

S =
∑

120

/

(2)

S =1

(3)

社会技術研究論文集

wheretraded worldwide in 2005, with the top five exporters
accounting for 83% of all the trade. Among them, Moroccotraded a massive 43% of the global total, and the next fourlargest traders in P-ore fall way behind, with Jordan, Russia,
Syria and China exporting 13%, 12%, 8% and 6% of the total
amount traded in 2005.
Accounting for just over 31% of global P-ore imports in 2005,
a total of 16 countries exported P-ore in quantities of 500 tons
or more to Asia, from places as diverse as the Bahamas, New
Caledonia, New Zealand, Togo, Israel and South Africa as wellas the major exporters. Of the almost 1.6 million tons imported
by Asian countries, five countries accounted for more than
96% of all imports: Jordan accounted for 30% of all the P-ore
imported in Asia, and Morocco, China, Egypt and Togoaccounted for 30%, 27%, 17%, 11% and 11%, respectively.
While Russia, Tunisia and Algeria were major exporters in the
global market, they did not play a significant role in Asia.
While some Asian countries depended heavily on one or two
countries for their P-ore, other countries imported from a wide
variety of sources, as shown in Fig. 2. India was the world’s
largest importer of P-ore, importing more than 727,000 tons ofphosphorus in P-ore, or twice that of any other country. India
depended on just three sources: It depended on Jordan toprovide approximately half of its phosphorus as P-ore, andanother 21% and 15% came from Morocco and Togo,
respectively. It should be noted here that only 3% of India’s
requirements came from China. Japan imported about half of
its phosphorus as P-ore from China, about 30% from Morocco,and 20% from Jordan. In the case of South Korea, however,
70% of its P-ore came from China, and 22% originated from
Morocco. Indonesia, the other of the top five economies,
imported more than 75% from just two sources: Morocco andEgypt. China played the role of exporter and imported
negligible quantities of phosphorus as P-ore in 2005 (41tons)
compared to its huge output of 308,905 tons, 86% of which
was destined for the Asian market.
Many of the large importers of P-ore varied their sources, as
shown in Fig. 2. Pakistan imported just 10% less phosphorus
as P-ore than India, it chose to import more than two thirds of
its needs from Morocco, and about 20% from Jordan.
Notably, no Chinese ore was imported by Pakistan in 2005. As
can be seen from Fig. 2, many countries were non-importers of
P-ore in 2005.
While China imported negligible quantities, its exports ofphosphorus as P-ore accounted for approximately 6% of the
global total in 2005. Approximately 52% of Chinese P-ore wasimported by South Korea, and Japan was the next largest
market at 18.6%, followed by India, the Philippines, and thenis the share of the k commodity imported from icountry in j country.

andare the import amounts of

the k commodity from i country and the total import amount of
the k commodity in j country. This defines the market shares ina range from 0 to 1.0, moving from a huge number of verysmall shareholders to a single monopolistic market.

3.

Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

Results

3.1. Whole flows
Fig.1 shows the phosphorus flows associated with theinternational trade of yellow phosphorus, phosphorus
compounds and P-ore. According to the estimated results, ofthe 5 million tons of phosphorus as P-ore that was traded in
2005, approximately 1.3 million tons was imported by Asian
countries, accounting for about one third of all the P-ore traded.
The Asian trade in yellow phosphorus, however, constituted
more than half of the global commercial activity for thiscommodity, with 50.8% of the 308.5 tons of phosphorus asyellow phosphorus traded in 2005 imported by Asian countries.
Almost two thirds of the nearly 300,000 tons of phosphorouscompounds traded in 2005 was destined for Asian countries.
The global trade in phosphorus in agricultural fertilizers wasalmost equivalent to the sum of the total trade in P-ore, yellow
phosphorus and phosphorus in chemicals. Of the 6.2 million
tons of phosphorus traded in agricultural fertilizers,
approximately 40% was imported by Asian countries.

Fig. 1 Global flows of phosphorus

3.2. P-Ore
While the 2005 trade figures indicate that some countries
imported P-ore from a variety of countries in 2005, othercountries were strongly dependent on just one or two exporters.
Just ten countries exported more than 95% of all the P-ore

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Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

It should be noted that while Europe relied heavily on CIS
states to meet its yellow phosphorus needs, CIS yellow
phosphorus was not traded in Asia at all in 2005.

400,000

200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000Dependency ratio

0

Import amount

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000

Dependency ratio

Fig. 2 Dependency ratio of import market of phosphorus ore

Import amount (t)250,000

Sultanate of Oman
People's Republic of Bangladesh
Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
United Arab Emirates
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
India
TaiwanJapan
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Malaysia
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Republic of Korea
Republic of the Philippines
State of Qatar
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
State of Israel
Hong Kong
Kingdom of Thailand
Republic of Turkey
People's Republic of China
Republic of Indonesia
Republic of Singapore
Republic of Iraq
Kingdom of Bahrain
State of Kuwait
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Syrian Arab Republic
Republic of Lebanon
Republic of Yemen
The West Bank and Gaza Strip
Republic of Cyprus
Brunei Darussalam
Kingdom of Cambodia
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Union of Myanmar
Republic of Maldives
The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Kingdom of Bhutan
Islamic Republic of IranMongolia
Macau

300,000

Dependency ratio of maximum import country

350,000

Import amount (t)

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

State of Israel
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Republic of Yemen
Republic of Singapore
Union of Myanmar
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
Hong Kong
Republic of Cyprus
Kingdom of Thailand
Sultanate of Oman
United Arab Emirates
Republic of Lebanon
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
Kingdom of Bahrain
State of Qatar
People's Republic of China
Republic of Korea
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Kingdom of Cambodia
State of Kuwait
People's Republic of Bangladesh
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Islamic Republic of Iran
India
Japan
Republic of the Philippines
Republic of Turkey
Republic of Indonesia
Taiwan
Malaysia
Republic of Iraq
Syrian Arab Republic
The West Bank and Gaza Strip
Brunei Darussalam
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Republic of Maldives
The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Kingdom of Bhutan
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Mongolia
Macau

Dependency ratio of maximum import country

Australia and New Zealand, at 13.5%, 9.0%, 7.7% and 5.8%
respectively. The remainder of the Chinese ore was imported
by Bangladesh, Malaysia and Hong Kong.

0

Import amountFig. 3 Dependency ratio of import market of yellow phosphorus

3.3. Yellow Phosphorus
With regard to the 2005 trade in yellow phosphorus, exports
from China account for approximately half the global trade.
Yellow phosphorus is used extensively in industry in the
production of cars, in paints and in electronics. It is produced
from P-ore by a limited number of countries, notably China
and Vietnam. Japan was the biggest importer, importing a totalof 30.9 million tons of phosphorus as yellow phosphorus, or
30% of all the yellow phosphorus traded by China. South
Korea also imported significant quantities of yellow
phosphorus, comprising 6% of China’s yellow phosphorus
export market in 2005. Together Japan and South Korea
imported approximately 44% of Chinese yellow phosphorus
exports. Chinese exports accounted for 97.5% of Japan’s
yellow phosphorus imports, and 87.5% of South Korean
imports.
The amounts of phosphorus in yellow phosphorus imported
by various countries are plotted with the dependency for thosecountries indicated in Fig. 3. Japan stands out as a large
importer with a heavy dependence on one country. India wasalso a large consumer of yellow phosphorus in 2005 with aheavy dependence. In fact, Japan and India accounted forapproximately 20% of all the Chinese exported yellow
phosphorus in 2005. The combination of Japan, India andSouth Korea, which also showed a heavy reliance on China,
were equivalent to approximately 25% of the global market
that year. Though Indonesia imported very little yellow
phosphorus, approximately half of its requirements came fromthe United Kingdom, and less than 10% came from China.
Countries which imported very small quantities of yellow
phosphorus typically showed a high dependence on one
source.

3.4. Chemical compounds containing phosphorus
A total of 3,264,491 tons of phosphorus was traded in theform of phosphorus-containing chemicals in 2005, according to
the BACI statistics. Approximately 360,000 tons, or about 11%,was exported from Asia, with China accounting for 83% of the
Asian export market and 9% of the global export market.
China was the world’s fourth largest exporter of phosphorus inchemical compounds in 2005, ranking behind Morocco, which
had almost double the exports of its nearest competitor, Tunisia(667,500 tons compared to 365,000 tons), and South African
exports were only slightly ahead of China’s 299,000 tons.
Approximately two thirds of the Chinese produced
phosphorus-containing chemicals were exported to Asian
countries. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan were its biggest
importers at 12%, 9.2% and 8.8% of the Asian market. Almost
every country in Asia imported phosphorus in chemicals from
China. The import quantities and dependencies of various
countries are shown in Fig. 4. India imported significantly
more than other Asian countries, but did not show a particularly
strong dependency on one importer. While most countries
imported their phosphorus in chemicals from a variety ofsources, as indicated by the relatively low dependency value,
many countries in Asia depended on China for a considerable
portion of their phosphorus in chemicals. Chinese chemicals
accounted for 90% of all Thai imports, , 71% of the South
Korean imports, 46% of Indonesian imports, and 41% of
Iranian imports. While both Japan and the Philippines
imported about one third of their needs from China in 2005, theremaining two thirds of Japan’s imports came almost
exclusively from South Africa, and the Philippines imported
from the United States and a variety of other Asian states. In the122社会技術研究論文集

imports way exceeded their exports, typically by a factor of
1:10, but South Korea exported more than three times what it
imported (60,000 and 18,670 tons, respectively), and Thailand
exported about half as much again as it imported (17,000 tons
and 12,600 tons, respectively).
Just ten countries controlled 75% of the market in phosphate
fertilizers in 2005, with the United States commanding morethan one third of the global market. With its 2 million tons andRussia’s 1 million tons of phosphorus in phosphate fertilizers,
together they accounted for half of all trade in the global
phosphate fertilizer trade. The third largest exporter was
Morocco, exporting less than one third of Russia’s exports.
China ranked as the world’s fourth largest exporter ofphosphorus in agricultural fertilizer in 2005, exporting a total of342,917 tons of phosphorus as phosphate fertilizer, 61% of
which was destined for the Asian market. While a total of 13
Asian countries imported phosphate fertilizer from China,
Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia accounted for more than
90% of Chinese export market, at 52%, 28% and 12%,
respectively.
While China was the largest exporter of phosphate inagricultural fertilizers in Asia, its imports exceeded its exports.
Indeed China was the world’s largest importer of phosphorus
containing fertilizers in 2005, importing more than 550,000
tons of phosphorus in fertilizers that year, more than 200,000
tons more than it exported. Over 60% of China’s imported
phosphorus as fertilizers came from the United States, with theremaining 40% coming from a number of other countries.
The amounts of phosphorus in fertilizers imported by various
countries and their dependencies are shown in Fig. 5. The
second and third largest importers of phosphorus in fertilizer
were also Asian countries in 2005. China and India andPakistan accounted for more than 20% of the global market infertilizers. Like China, India relied on the United States formore than half of its phosphate fertilizer requirement, but
imported from another 8 countries, Russia being the only major
contributor among them (accounting for 17% of India’s import
volume). Pakistan, on the other hand, did not have a strong
dependency on the United States for its phosphate fertilizer
needs. Just 4% of its requirements were met by the UnitedStates. Rather, Pakistan imported phosphate fertilizer from awide variety of sources.
Both Japan and Indonesia demonstrated a strong reliance on
the United States to meet the local demand for phosphate
fertilizers in 2005. Added to the 65% supplied by the UnitedStates to Japan, Jordan and China contributed another 13%
each. The United States provided 59% of the domestic demandin Indonesia, followed by China, which provided another 28%

300,000

0.9
0.7

200,000

0.6
0.5

150,000

0.4
100,000

0.3
0.2

Import amount (t)250,000

0.8

50,0000.1
0Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Kingdom of Bhutan
Union of Myanmar
Kingdom of Cambodia
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Republic of Yemen
Lao People's Democratic Republic
The West Bank and Gaza Strip
Kingdom of Thailand
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
Kingdom of Bahrain
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
Republic of Iraq
Republic of Korea
MongoliaJapan
Republic of Lebanon
People's Republic of Bangladesh
Republic of Maldives
Brunei Darussalam
Malaysia
State of Kuwait
State of Qatar
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
Sultanate of Oman
People's Republic of China
TaiwanRepublic of Indonesia
Hong Kong
Macau
State of Israel
Islamic Republic of Iran
Republic of Singapore
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Republic of the Philippines
Republic of Cyprus
India
Syrian Arab Republic
Republic of Turkey
The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste

Dependency ratio of maximum import country

case of Indonesia, almost equal imports from Morocco, Tunisia
and the US made up another 30% of its imports, and theremaining 24% was imported from within Asia. A highdependency was noted for countries with small imports.
Despite being the biggest importer of phosphorus inchemicals in Asia, with its imports totaling twice those of therest of Asia combined, India imported less than 1% of its
requirements from China in 2005. India imported its supplies
from a wide range of sources, with Morocco and South Africa
both accounting for more than a quarter of its imports, andTunisia and Senegal providing India with 13.5% and 14.5% of
its needs. India also imported phosphorus-containing chemicals
from the US, Australia and from Jordan, and smaller quantities
from Panama, Lebanon and Russia.
Chemicals containing phosphorus were traded quite
extensively within Asia from countries other than China. South
Korea, which depended on China for 70% of its P-ore and has
no phosphate mines of its own, supplied the world withapproximately 23,000 tons of phosphorus in chemicals, trading
21,000 tons in Asia in 2005. Almost all of the Asian countries
which imported phosphorus-containing chemicals imported
some from South Korea. Japan, Thailand and Malaysia also
exported phosphorus chemicals widely throughout Asia.

1

Dependency ratio

Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

0

Import amountFig. 4 Dependency ratio of import market of chemical compounds

3.5. Phosphorus in agricultural fertilizers
According to the BACI data for 2005, the amount ofphosphorus traded in agricultural fertilizers exceeded that of theP-ore, yellow phosphorus and chemicals containing
phosphorus combined. A total of 6,160,270 tons ofphosphorus in agricultural fertilizers was traded that year, with
Asia accounting for 34.5% of the imports, and 8.6% of the
global exports. South Korea and Thailand stand out among all
the other Asian countries as being the only net exporters ofphosphorus in agricultural chemicals in Asia. While a total of
20 Asian countries exported phosphate fertilizers in 2005, their123

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Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

chemicals.
Japan depended on just four countries to meet its P-ore
requirements and three countries to meet phosphate fertilizer
requirements in 2005. China supplied half of all the P- ore
imported, with Jordan, South Africa, and Morocco making up
the balance, while the United States provided 65% of thephosphate fertilizer, with Jordan and China equally splitting thebalance. Two thirds of the phosphorus containing chemicals
was imported from South Africa, and Japan was almost entirely
reliant on China for yellow phosphorus.
South Korea imported more than two thirds of its P-ore from
China, and was a net exporter of fertilizer in 2005. In fact a
number of other Asian countries showed a strong reliance on
South Korea to meet their demand for phosphate based
fertilizer. Like Japan, South Korea imported almost all of its
yellow phosphorus from China, but was a major supplier ofphosphorus containing chemicals in the Asian region,
particularly.
Indonesia, the fifth largest economy in Asia, imported large
quantities of P-ore from a number of sources in 2005, butshowed quite a strong dependency on Morocco to meet its
phosphate fertilizer needs, at over 40%. Indonesia showed astrong dependency on the United States to meet its local
demand for phosphate fertilizer, at 59% in 2005.
The top six countries by export volume of P-ore to Asia were
Jordan (30%), Morocco (27%), China (17%), Egypt (11%) andTogo (11%), representing 97% of all the P-ore imported by
Asia in 2005. It should be noted that about 60% of all thephosphorus exported globally was supplied by just six
countries. Although P-ore is produced in Russia, South Africa
and the USA, these countries choose to process the phosphorus
before exporting it as a value-added product, mostly as fertilizer,
since the profit margin is considerably larger. Recent trends
suggest that other countries with large P-ore resources will
follow suit and that less P-ore will be available as an importcommodity over time. This will inevitably mean that thephosphorus requirements of importing countries will be met ata higher cost.
Moreover, the influence of the strategy in some countries toconserve phosphorus resources is evident in our results. Boththe USA and China import large volumes of phosphorus
despite having extensive phosphate reserves, and exported lessthan Morocco in 2005, indicating that domestic consumption ishigher than the local supply. As the economies in heavily
populated countries improve, their phosphorus needs will
increase as the diets become more globalized. It follows thatthe agriculture sector will require increasing amounts ofphosphate fertilizer over time to provide for the increasing

400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000

Import amount (t)

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

50,000The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
Mongolia
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Kingdom of Bhutan
Brunei Darussalam
The West Bank and Gaza Strip
Republic of Korea
State of Qatar
Republic of Yemen
Republic of Iraq
Republic of MaldivesTaiwanRepublic of Cyprus
Japan
State of Israel
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
Union of Myanmar
People's Republic of China
Republic of the Philippines
India
United Arab Emirates
Kingdom of Cambodia
State of Kuwait
Republic of Singapore
Hong Kong
Syrian Arab Republic
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
Kingdom of Bahrain
People's Republic of Bangladesh
Republic of Lebanon
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Republic of Turkey
Sultanate of Oman
Kingdom of Thailand
Republic of Indonesia
Islamic Republic of Iran
Macau
Malaysia

Dependency ratio of maximum import countryof its requirements. That is, Japan and Indonesia relied on justthree and two countries, respectively, to meet 90% of theirdomestic demand in 2005.

Dependency ratio

0

Import amountFig. 5 Dependency ratio of import market of fertilizer

4.

Discussions

4.1. General tendencies affecting P-ore imports
In this study, the supply of phosphorus has been clarified, witha focus on Asia. Large quantities of phosphorus are imported
into Asia in the form of P-ore, yellow phosphorus andchemicals for use in the fertilizer industry as well as actual
phosphate fertilizers. The uneven distribution of raw
phosphorus resources and the technology to produce yellow
phosphorus has resulted in a tendency for countries to have astrong dependency on just one country or a few of the countries
which export phosphorus in one form or another. Among thefive largest economies in Asia the following trends were noted.
In 2005, China was a large exporter of P-ore, yellow
phosphorus, chemicals containing phosphorus and fertilizers
containing phosphorus. Despite the huge output of P-ore in
China, China’s imports of phosphate fertilizer eclipsed its
exports, suggesting that as China’s economy and population
grow, China will adopt phosphorus conservation strategies toensure its domestic demand for phosphate fertilizer is met. This
will inevitably mean that countries that import from China will
be forced to find other suppliers.
India was a massive importer of P-ore, yellow phosphorus
and phosphorus in chemicals and in agricultural fertilizers in
2005. In order to meet its domestic needs, India depended onjust three countries, Jordan (50%), Morocco (21%) and Togo
(15%), for 70% for its P-ore, and on the United States toprovide more than 50% of its phosphate fertilizer. While India
also demonstrated a high dependency for yellow phosphorus,
dependency was low for imports of phosphorus containing124

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population. This increase in demand will come as the costs ofextracting ever-lower concentrations of P2O5 from P-ore minedfrom existing sources inevitably rise over time.

Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

4.3.2 Recovery and recycling of phosphorus from waste
streams
The utilization of secondary phosphorus resources has thepotential to improve the phosphorus dependency since thedomestic demand for natural ore declines with better recycling
and recovery. It is therefore important to chart the phosphorus
flow in the economic activities of each country and to consider
the availability of phosphorus resources that remain untapped atpresent. In order to promote recycling and recovery, there aresome significant bottlenecks which need to be overcome.
Developing countries lack environmental regulations and thenecessary infrastructure to collect waste containing phosphorus,
including waste water, sewage sludge, and incineration ash. In
developed countries, the market itself poses a problem:
consumer preference is considered a difficult barrier toovercome in the marketing of recovered phosphorus. Better
public awareness of the importance phosphorus would most
likely remove this obstacle.
Besides improving dependency, the reduced demand for
P-ore would benefit the ore-mining countries. As with the
production of any ore, the mining of P-ore causes large
amounts of mining waste. The nutrient enrichment caused by
the waste water and the emission of naturally occurring
radioactive materials (NORM) are two serious problems
associated specifically with P-ore mining which would be
reduced by the adoption of natural phosphorus resource
conservation methods.

4.2. Geopolitical issues
Besides the risk that countries which export P-ore andphosphorus product will adopt conservation strategies orchoose to supply value-added product rather than P-ore, there
are significant geopolitical risks associated with the global flowof phosphorus. Instability in the MENA countries in the wakeof the Arab Spring has been shown to have an impact on theflow of phosphorus. It should be noted that more than two
thirds of the P-ore imported by Asia in 2005 was supplied byjust three countries in the MENA region, Jordan (30%),
Morocco (27%) and Egypt (11%). There are issues ofsovereignty, labor disputes, political grievances, civil strife andeven civil war threatening the flow of P-ore and phosphorus
products for use in industry and agriculture from thesecountries23, 24). Strife in South Africa or in South Korea, bothof which are major suppliers of phosphate fertilizers andphosphorus containing chemicals for use in industry, would
also have the potential of disrupting the phosphorus flow to theextent that other countries would be unable to meet theirdomestic demand. It should be noted that it is beyond thescope of this paper to quantify the potential for social andeconomic damage which could result from the local demandfor phosphorus not being met.
4.3 Options to decrease outside phosphorus dependency

5. Conclusions
4.3.1 Appropriate phosphorus use in agricultural
production process
The more efficient use of phosphate fertilizers would reduce theamount of phosphorus “lost” in the water systems due to run-off
or in the soils as phosphorus bonds with iron and aluminum ions.
Recent studies have indicated that phosphate fertilizer tends to be
used liberally on soils which are already P-rich 25, 26). In developed
countries, farmers tend to go about business as usual in order toensure a bumper crop, inevitably over-using fertilizer. On the other
hand, the use of phosphate fertilizers as well as sewage sludge andmanure in developing countries also results in “lost” phosphorus
27). With more education and the development of simple
tool-kits to test the phosphorus levels in soils, it would be possible
to ensure that phosphorus would be used more appropriately. By
compiling a comprehensive database of soils and their phosphorus
history and amounts would serve as a guideline for appropriate
phosphorus use.

125

A close analysis of the 2005 BACI trade data revealed thatmany countries in Asia have a strong dependency on just one
or two countries to meet their phosphorus requirements. Given
the geopolitical risks associated with the P-ore producing
nations, close attention needs to be paid to prevent shortfalls in
phosphorus requirements. Besides the threat of disrupted
supplies from the phosphorus exporters, a clear tendency for
P-ore producing countries to export value-added product at ahigher cost rather than export ore is clear in the 2005 data. To
prepare for the day when phosphate ore is inevitably in short
supply, and to ensure a stable supply of phosphorus, efforts
need to be made to ensure that phosphorus is recycled
efficiently in all societies, and to improve the use of phosphate
fertilizers in agriculture. The impact of change in thephosphorus supply on agriculture and therefore on food andfood prices need more careful attention.

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Vol.11, 119-126, April 2014

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