High Speed Rail in India
Selection of corridors andImpacts on energy and emissions*Sarbojit Pal
International Transport Forum Roundtable on theEconomics of investments in HSR
December 18-19th, 2013

*Emissions throughout this presentation refer to CO2 emissions from operations only

Ever increasing demand for mobility
GROWTH IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT• Very fast growth in passenger
transport activity
2.5 Mil. Cars
(1990)

15.5 Mil. Cars *(2010)• Growth drivers: population,economy, urbanization,motorization
286 Rail BPKM
(1990)

1,046 Rail BPKM
(2012) *** Total number of registered cars and jeeps in India; source: Basic Road Statistics, MoRTH; ** Data from the IR

The absolute growth in mobility has been very rapid
specifically in the last decadeIndia’s large urban
agglomerations
Delhi
Ghaziabad
JaipurLucknow
KanpurPatna

Ahmedabad
BhopalIndoreVadodara
SuratThane

Kolkata

NagpurMumbai Pune
Hyderabad> 10 million
Bangalore Chennai
Kochi
Thrissur
Kochi
Map based on Census 2011 data

> 5 million
Coimbatore> 1 million• Already 8 urban centers
have populations greaterthan 5 million people• By 2030– At least 6 ten million plus
cities– 6 to 11 five million plus cities

Large passenger mobility canbe seen between such large
cities across the country

Originating passengers
for the Railways• Top 40 passenger originating
cities generate 51% of thetotal non-suburban traffic• Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata
alone generate 20% of thetotal traffic
Number of originating passengers> 2 million
1 to 2 million
Kochi
Map based on PRS data for period: 01-SEP-09 TO 31-AUG-10

Originating passengers
for the Airlines• Top 10 passenger
originating cities generate
78% of the total traffic
Number of originating passengers• Delhi, Mumbai and> 1 million
Bangalore generate about
50% of the total traffic
Kochi
Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12 – Data does not include information for IndianIdentifying urban
passenger corridors

HSR Corridors identified by
Ministry of Railways• Distinct heavy passenger
use corridors emerge• Capacity constraint of rail
Number of originating passengers
would mean traffic will
> 2 million rail
move to air and road
1 to 2 million rail

Kochi
Air data does not include data from Indian> 1 million air

Identification of potential HSRcorridors in India
Economic & social parameters

Corridor specific

Per capita GDPCorridor length/time

Population densities

Number of cities on corridor

Population growth rates

Intercity OD traffic volume

Historic connectedness

Capacity along the corridor• TERI-ITPS study tried todetermine the potential corridors
for HSR in India• There were several overlapping
corridors with the Govt. links• Detailed study on two corridors:– Western Corridor•

Ahmedabad – Mumbai – Pune

– Southern Corridor•
Map sourced from TERI-ITPS study titled “A Study on the Mid/Long-Term Railway Networks in India Phase II”.

Chennai – Bangalore - Coimbatore

The western corridor- a quick snapshot
The Western Corridor
Ahmedabad – Vadodara – Surat – Mumbai – Pune
Road–––

95 km Ahmedabad-Vadodara Expressway (1.5hours)
93 km Mumbai-Pune Expressway (2 hrs)
Ahmedabad - Pune corridor coming up
connecting Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai

Rail––

Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Bharuch,Valsad, Borivali, Dadar, Mumbai Central &Pune
30 trains runs along the Ahm to Mum, 15 superfast, 11 - Express, 4 Rajdhani, Shatabdi& Duronto

Air–

All the cities along the corridor are connectedby air with center at Mumbai

Section 1: Ahmedabad to Mumbai
Section 2: Mumbai to Pune

The southern corridor- a quick snapshot
Road–––The Southern Corridor
Chennai – Bangalore - Coimbatore

High density passenger network on roads –SRTUs and private operators
NHAI is expanding the road from 4 to 6 lanes
between Chennai and Bangalore – DPR isready
Expressway being planned independently
between Chennai – Bangalore and Chennai –Coimbatore

Chennai – Bangalore
327.6 kmBangalore – Coimbatore 372.0 km
Chennai – Coimbatore 530.0 km

Air––There are about 9 flights daily between
Chennai-Bangalore and 3 between Bangalore
and Coimbatore
Since Bangalore airport is 40 km away fromthe city center it takes approximately the sametime between the cities on air as it takes on theroadRail–

17 trains between Chennai and Bangalore and
13 trains between Bangalore – Coimbatore (noShatabdi)

Section 3: Chennai-Bangalore
Section 4: Bangalore-CoimbatoreSection 5: Coimbatore-Chennai

THE AHMEDABAD-MUMBAI SECTION

Ahmedabad-Mumbai Section
NATURE OF TRAFFIC, ENERGY AND EMISSIONS
Ahmedabad-Mumbai
7.94 BPKM in 2011-12

NE 1NH 8•••

58% of the traffic moves on the roads
Aviation grew at almost 37% (CAGR) between
2008/09 and 2011/12
Traffic on cars and jeeps have almost caught up
with that on the railways

VadodaraMumbai Exp.
(planned)

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL TRAFFIC• 6.2 million passengers travelled onreserved rail categories in 2011-12• Growth of passenger kilometers on
various classes (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11)– Higher - 7.62%– Middle - 6.79%– Lower - 3.85%• Higher journey classes have higher leads(404km-373km-348km)

Class types combined:
Higher: 1A, 2A, EC; Middle: 3A, 3E, CC; Lower: SL, 2S

Fastest end to end travel time on
railways: 6h 25min

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES• Conducted a primary face to facepassenger survey on-board trains• 73% of the respondents were in theages between 21 and 40 years• Largely in private services (44%) or selfemployed (25%)• Highest share of total respondents inthe income band of Rs. 25-50,000

Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES• 45% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes• A large number of people were also traveling for social reasons• Most of the respondents were traveling on a monthly basis (42%) and aLarge shareof rail passengers surveyed were making this journey on alarge share occasionally (34%)

monthly basis and most of them were traveling on work

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES• About 12 million people travel on intercity
buses along this corridor (2011-12)• Mostly young travelers - 55% respondents
between 21 and 30 years• Greater percentage of respondents werestudents as compared to the railways• Respondents had on average, lower
incomes than those on the railways

Primary surveys were conducted at bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES• 63% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes• Most of these respondents made trips along this corridor once a week
• share92% ofofthem
their tickets
at thealong
time ofthis
the corridor
journey were youngHighbusbooked
passengers
surveyed

and booked their tickets at the time of journey

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
AIR TRAFFIC• 1.76 mn passengers travelled by airin 2011-12• Mumbai-Ahmedabad accounts for
80% of the traffic• Rapid growth of aviation passengers• New airports in the anvil• At this rate the mobility on air
would exceed the mobility on
medium classes of the railways by
2012-13This growth of passenger traffic driven by growth in air and road traffic is
unsustainable in the long run

Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSRRail• Conducted primary surveys on board trains and on platforms tounderstand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced• About 98% passengers said that they would be willing to shift to HSR• But smaller percentage were willing to pay for HSR services

Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSRRoad• Conducted primary surveys at bus terminals to understand willingness ofcurrent passengers to shift to HSR if introduced• About 69% passengers traveling on luxury bus classes said they would shiftto HSR and pay• From the Japanese experience of the Shinkansen, about 15% of car users
was assumed to shift to HSR

Primary surveys were conducted at intercity bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
MODAL SHIFT TO HSRAir• International experience show HSR passengers prefer to travel by HSR forjourneys with travel time less than 3 hours

Source: UIC-High Speed Presentation by Jean-Pierre LOUBINOUX 2009

• About 80% of the passengers between Ahmedabad and Mumbai canbe expected to shift to HSR

Based on these assumptions an alternate scenario was built toevaluate the impact of HSR along this corridor

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
TRAFFIC TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR• After 15 year of operations likely shares of traffic on this corridor would be• 46% on HSR• 40% on roads (car: 24%, bus: 16%)
• 4% on air and 10% on conventional rail

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
ENERGY TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR• This scenario results in an annual average savings of about 3.5 PJ over a 15year period• By 2035-36, HSR services would carry about 46% of the total traffic byconsuming only 16% of the energy• Road transport would still continue to consume the largest share of energy

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor
EMISSIONS TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR• A 10% reduction of emissions per annum over BAU• Annual average emissions reduction of about 81,040 tCO2 over a 15 year
period• Impact on emissions due to HSR is dampened due to heavy coal basedenergy generation – need to move towards non-fossil fuel energy sources

HOW DO THESE IMPACTS VARYACROSS OTHER SECTIONS?

Traffic shares
VARIOUS SECTIONS in 2011-12

Mumbai-Pune: 6.41 BPKM

Chennai-Bangalore: 3.99 BPKM

Bangalore-Coimbatore: 1.35 BPKM

Coimbatore-Chennai: 4.57 BPKM

Changing shares of traffic
COMPARING DIFFENRENT SECTIONS

58%

38%

Not many car users are expected to shift, mostly bususers

Large shift from bus and conventional rail

Bus shares could go down from the present 72 per cent toas low as 10 per cent

HSR shares could grow to as high as 52 per cent on
account of conventional railways

Energy use patterns
COMPARING DIFFENRENT SECTIONSEmissions patterns
COMPARING DIFFENRENT SECTIONS

Where large shifts are expected from conventional rail and buses, there is a decline in
the emissions benefits of HSR

Key takeaways
1. High Speed Rail is one of the solutions to meet the rapidly
increasing demands for mobility along these corridors
2. It will also help in achieving energy savings - however thelevel of savings would depend on the nature of modal shifts
3. Introduction of HSR may not result in decreased emissions
in all cases
4. Electricity generation from dirty fuels like coal could reduce
the overall benefits of HSR - need to move to renewables
5. The selection of HSR corridors should be done on a caseby case basis after thoroughly understanding the traffic
patterns along each section

THANK YOU