International Technical Seminar on REDD+Tokyo, 16‐17 February 2011

Global Comparative Study on REDD+
Daniel Murdiyarso
THINKING beyond the canopy

Outline Introduction
 How can REDD+ research bebest designed?
 Underlying causes ofdeforestation
 Global REDD architecture National REDD+ strategy andpolicy options
 Key messages
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CIFORA brief introduction

 Established in 1993 One of 15 centres in the Consultative
Group for International AgriculturalResearch Focus on forest policy research andglobal comparative studies

 Headquarters in Bogor, Indonesia
 80 scientific staff working in the major
forests of Southeast Asia, Sub SaharanAfrica and Latin America ‘Centre without walls’
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Where we work

3 regional offices, 7 country offices, 37 research sites

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Our research strategy

1 Enhancing the role of forests in mitigating climate change
2 Enhancing the role of forests in adapting to climate change
3Managing trade‐offs between conservation and development
4 at the landscape scale
Improving livelihoods through smallholder and communityforestry

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6 Sustainably managing tropical production forests

Managing impacts of globalised trade and investment onforests and forest communities

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The core idea of REDD+
 Carbon value of forests
 Performance-based

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How can REDD+ research be best
designed?
GCS-REDD
 National REDD
process andstrategies (Component 1)

 REDD demonstration
activities (Component 2)

 Monitoring andreference levels(Component 3)

 Knowledge sharing(Component 4)

www.forestsclimatechange.org

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C1: National strategy and processes

Cross‐country
comparativeanalysis

Flexible Element: Specific Policy Studies to capture emerging or country specific issues
and questions, focus on political economy studies

Countrycase studies

DiscourseMediaAnalysis
Æ Why:
ÆTo determine
what kinds of actors
are shaping publicdebate.
ÆHow: media‐
based analysis

Country profile
ÆWhy: To reveal contextual conditions (drivers ofdeforestation, institutions, political economy, REDD
architecture as discussed)
ÆHow: literature review, expert interviews

Strategy Assessment
ÆWhy: To assess the adequacy of proposed
response measures to secure 3E outcomes?
ÆHow: situational analysis, R‐PP scoring

Policy Network Analysis
ÆWhy: To analyse structural conditions in the policy arena,Actors, Perception, Power, Position
ÆHow: survey and in‐depth interviews

Comparative analysis
ÆWhy: to identify structural and governance barriers for 3E REDD outcomes, and options for
improvements
ÆHow: comparative analysis of individual research elements (country profile etc),
qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)

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C2: REDD demonstration activities

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C3: Monitoring and reference levels

Baseperiod
Or
Historicalreference

Crediting period = 35 years?
With REDD+
With REDD
Without REDD

5 or 10yrs?

Without REDD

BasePeriodOr
Historicalreference
5 or 10yrs?

With REDD
With REDD+

Crediting period = 35 years?
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Country selection
Year 1

Year 2-3Latin America

Bolivia
BrazilBolivia
BrazilPeru

AfricaCameroon
Tanzania

Cameroon
Tanzania
DRC

Asia

Indonesia
VietnamIndonesia
Vietnam
Nepal
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C4: Knowledge sharing

2007 COP13

2008 COP14

2009 COP1412THINKING beyond the canopy

Book on Underlying
causes of deforestation
CIFOR 2007

Key messages:
 Without understanding
the causes – difficult toimplement REDD
 Policy options to address
REDD• Type of instruments• Governance mechanisms• Inst. strengthening
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Drivers of forest carbon change

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Book on global
REDD architecture
CIFOR 2008

Key messages
 Technical solutions exist
BUT Often trade-offs
 Political issues
 Flexibility needed• country circumstances• learning process

THINKING beyond the canopyDifferent national circumstancesand challenges
Forestcover

Avoid leakage anddeforestation in business as
usual (BAU)
DRC
Ghana
SurinameMozambique

PNG
BrazilBolivia
Indonesia
Cameroon

REDD+ challenges

Reducedeforestation

Continue
conservation
India
Costa Rica
Stage 1
Little‐disturbedforests

Stage 2
Forest frontiersStage 3
Forest‐agriculturalmosaics

Promote afforestation
and reforestation

Vietnam
China
Stage 4
Forest/plantations/agricultural mosaics

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TimeBook on REDD+
at the national level
CIFOR 2009

Key facts• 40+ countries preparing
national REDD+ strategies• 100+ REDD demonstration
activities• > 20 years of forest policy
experience
Options assessment• 3E+: Effectiveness, efficiency,equity, co-benefits• Options depend on context

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Realising REDD+:National strategy andpolicy options
 Part 1: Moving REDD+ fromglobal to national level Part 2: Building REDD+
institutional architecture andprocesses Part 3: Enabling REDD+
through broad policy reforms
Part 4: Doing REDD+ bychanging incentives

 Part 5: Testing REDD+ throughpilots

 Key messages & outlook
THINKING beyond the canopyImplication 1: Phased approachPhase 1: Readiness

Phase 2: Policies andmeasures (PAMs)

Phase 3: Payments
for environmental
services (PES)

Scope

RED/REDD/REDD+REDD/REDD+REDD+

Creditingscale

Sub national

NestedNested or national

Performance - Strategy adopted
indicators- Consultations
conducted- Strategy
implemented- Policies enacted- Proxies for forest
carbon changes- Quantified forest
carbon changes(tCO2) comparedwith reference level

Funding

Readiness support
fund-based

Fund-basedPrimarily marketbased, but global
fund also possible

e.g. Forest Carbon
Partnership Facility,
UN-REDD, bilateralinitiatives

e.g. Forest Investment e.g. carbon markets
Program, Amazon
fund, voluntary carbon
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Implication 2:
Scope of creditable activities
Changes in:

Reduced negativechangeEnhanced positivechangeForest area(hectares)

Avoided deforestation(RED)

Afforestation andreforestation (A/R)

Carbon density(carbon perhectare)

Avoided degradation(REDD)

Forest regeneration &rehabilitation(forest carbon stockenhancement = REDD+)

Forest carbon (C) = forest area (ha) * carbon density (C/ha)
THINKING beyond the canopyImplication 3: Crediting scale
Nested approach Sequential: first project,then national
 Simultaneous: bothcoexist
 The most flexible
BUT
 Harmonisation issues
 Credit sharing questions

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2. Institutional structure: The 3Is

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MRV systems

Three major challenges
 Linking measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) to policydesign• Understand hotspots → spatial targeting• Understand drivers → sectoral and actor targeting
Allowing early participation and interim performance• Accept conservativeness principle (discounting)• Define proxies to measure interim performance• Establish incentives for graduation towards better MRV
Aligning national MRV and subnational implementation• Provide dedicated support to subnational REDD+ activities• Integrate community monitoring in national MRV system: cheaper and about as accurate co-benefits: employment, participation, legitimacy

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3. Enabling REDD+
through broad policy reforms
 Tenure and rights• Tenure reform essential for long-term success of REDD+ (re3Es: effectiveness, efficiency, equity)• Some ‘no regrets’ REDD policies that should not be missed• Carbon rights = precondition for subnational crediting (whom topay?) Corruption• Creates severe limitations, in some cases very difficult toaddress (systemic institutional changes needed)• Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon andmoney can reduce risk of corruption
 Decentralisation and community-based forest mgt.
• Enhancing 3E outcomes and legitimacy• Extensive research on success factors (Ostrom)
THINKING beyond the canopyTwo-track approach to REDD+TRANSFORMATIONAL
REFORMS

SPECIFIC POLICIESTenure reform

PES(payments for environmental services)

GovernanceCommunity-based natural resource
management (CBNRM)

Decentralisation

Agricultural policies

 May or may not directly lead to REDD+
9 But has positive effects on equity andpoverty reduction, necessary for the longterm success of REDD+ efforts

Woodfuel policies
Land use restrictions
Sustainable forest management

9 simpler, technically and politically

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4. Changing incentives:
Agricultural policies

 Reducing Emissions AgriculturalPolicy (REAP)• Prioritise agricultural assistanceto high-productivity non-forestedareas (and remove deforestingsubsidies)• Make agricultural policies more
location-based (spatiallytargeted) Selective support for extensive
agriculture• Potential trade-offs• Promote conservation agriculture
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Woodfuel policies
Demand side

 Cooking efficiency
 Fuel substitution
Supply side

 Production efficiency
 Controlling harvest
 Plantations
Æ 1. combine policies, and2. no substitute for
harvest control

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Payments for Environmental Services Potentially an effective instrument, butmany preconditions required• Clear understanding of whom to
pay and for what
• Clearly defined and secured tenure(property rights)• Institutions to monitor performanceand channel payments
 Main recommendations• Apply consequent conditionality(pay after performance)• Target to high threat/high carbon
density areas (additionality)• Differentiate payments to increase
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Sustainable forest management
 Promote third-party certification (e.g.
Forest Stewardship Council) andmake accessible for small and lowintensity managed forests
 Require and support the use ofreduced impact logging techniques
 Use taxation close to felling site todiscourage wastage
 Secure resource access (durableconcessions, use rights,private/community ownership) Wildfire control and forest
restoration
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5. Testing REDD+THINKING beyond the canopy

The landscape of emerging REDD+ projects
179 projects surveyed

 Projects can inform national REDD+ strategies ('mini testcases'), including reform priorities to enable local REDD Landscape of REDD+ projects varies significantly:
BrazilIndonesia

DRC

Planned projects

20354Operating projects

210Activity

Payments forenvironmental
services (PES)

Buy-outconcessions

Readiness

Proponents

Domestic actors

Int’l NGOs

Int’l NGOs

 Third party certification has a major influence- CCBS: Climate Community and Biodiversity Standards- VCS: Voluntary carbon standard
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Key messages
 REDD+ is a unique opportunity• The money and political will are there, but past
performance is mixed
 Context matters: REDD+ policies need to work on twotracks• Start long-term transformational reforms, or acceleratesome of those ongoing (e.g. land titling cadastre)• Start short-term policies, but identify ‘low-hanging fruits’;
important also to demonstrate commitment:'Yes we can – and will – do REDD'
 REDD is about PES-like performance-based payments• But strong preconditions apply → rely on some oldapproaches (e.g. protected areas) Learn from the past while moving forward
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Thank you

www.cifor.cgiar.org
CIFOR advances human well-being, environmental conservation, and equity by conducting
research to inform policies and practices that affect forests in developing countries.
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