GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences,
National Lab for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Staff: >1100 of which more than 50% are scientists

Jochen Zschau, Head of Section „Earthquake Risk and Early Warning“
Professor at University of Potsdam

GFZ-Focus: Earth System Dynamics
The Changing Earth
Global processes
monitor, quantify & predict
Geodynamics

Climate variability

understand the impact
Natural disasters
reduce the risk
GeoEngineeringdevelop the habitat

Future of Mankind

GFZ Involvement inthe Earthquake Risk Reduction Chain

HazardAssessment

EarthObservation

Process
Understanding

Forecasting

RiskAssessment

Rapid
Earthquake
Information

EarlyWarning

Knowledge
Transfer

Rapid
ImpactAssessment

Integrated Earth Observation
A Cornerstone of GFZ´sEarth System Analysis
SpaceSatellites

GEOFON:
Global Seism. BB-Network

Groundbased Networks
TrabbiDeep Drilling

Pilot Well
4000 mKTB

Main Well
9101 mThe Andes:A NaturalPlate
Boundary
Observatory

Natural Laboratories
Plate Boundary Observatories
Global Change Observatories

SAFER
Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope
EU-FP6-Project
Duration 36 months
starting date 1/06/2006
Coordinator GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

The Objectives
A. Develop tools for effective early warning
to be used for disaster management inEurope’s densely populated cities.
B. Application to selected European test
cities.

SOSEWIN: Towards aPeople Centered Mobile Early Warning System

Basic Features
people centeredself-organizing!
decentralized!
low-cost!
dense coverage!

A newtechnology
for seismic
early warning!

Client station

A conceptual representation of the SOSEWIN people centered early warning system

MATRIXNew
Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK
Assessment MethodS
For Europe
Start: 1.10.2010

End: 31.9.2013

Coordinator GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDevelop and apply
a common theoretical framework
for tackling multiple natural hazards and risks!
(compatible with the new EU-guidelines)

MATRIX
Objective
Compare with single-type hazard and risk methodology!

Interactions Between Hazards
Cascading/domino hazards: Those triggered
earthquake
earthquake
main shockstorm

tsunamilandslideaftershocks
coastal floods

or amplified
by an earlier event.
.

Combined hazards: Those acting independently,
earthquake followed by a flood
forest fire followed by a storm.
.

but at about the same time,on the same vulnerable systemConditional probabilities
Time-dependent vulnerability
Interactions between hazards make the multi-hazard approach
more than the simple sum of individual single hazards!

(EU-FP7)
Strategies and Tools for
Real-Time
EArthquake RisK ReducTion
Coordinator AMRA, Naples

20 janvier 2011

AUTORE

GITEWS
Coordinated by GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

The German-Indonesian Initiative
towards aTsunami Early Warning System
for the Indian Ocean
Model: A. Babeykov (Univ. Frankfurt/M)
S. Sobolev (GFZ Potsdam)

The GITEWS Components
They cover the complete tsunami early warning chain!

Detect the earthquake
Determine the earthquake size
Monitor the rupture process
Measure the tsunami height

Model the tsunami propagation
Manage the data flow
Cover the „last mile“

within a few minutes!
Breaking the Waves: New Challenges

GNNS-Reflectometry:
Monitoring the Ocean Surface with GPS?
GPSGLONASSGALILEO

Breaking the Waves : The Technology of Tomorrow

GEM

GEM
The Global Earthquake Model
A public/private partnershipfor mapping and communicatingcomplex earthquake risk globally
Secretariat
 Governments,
Initiatedin industry,Started
Japan`smembershipbytheScienceorganisations,OECD,Pavia/Italyfromthecurrently

World Bank,ISDR, UNESCO,OECDGFZ
undernegotiation!
>150
scientificinstitutions!
GlobalScienceForum
Officialstartin Potsdam
March 2009

Science for Risk Reduction in Central Asia

GEM Regional ProgrammeCentral Asia
coordinated by
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Potsdam, Germany
embedded in the GFZ-programme„Plate Boundary andGlobal Change Observatory
Central Asia“

PAKISTAN

Science for Risk Reduction in Central Asia

Science for Earthquake Risk Reduction in Central Asia
 Set up an effective cross-border real-timeearthquake monitoring system in the region Develop rapid response and early warning capability for the capitals
 Provide harmonized earthquake microzonation maps
for the capitals
 Develop a cross-border earthquake risk map of Central Asia
 Further develop and test innovative methods forvulnerability assessment and -monitoring Form and sustain a cross-border scientific „Consortiumfor Earthquake Risk Reduction in Central Asia“

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Modelling
Testing and Evaluation Centre
Currently being set up at GFZ in PotsdamGEM

„Monitoring“ Vulnerability and Risk
GFZ-activity in the frame of GEM!
New Tools
are needed!

satellite remote sensing

Ground based
panoramic street view
with mobile 3D-camera

Thank you!

Meeting the Challenges
ofEarthquake Risk Dynamics
and-Globalisation

Tohoku 2011
16.000 fatalities!
6.000 injured!

125.000 buildings damaged!
300 billion US$ overall cost

4.000 missing!

Earthquake risk is dynamically increasing!
Most expensive natural disasteron record!
Earthquake risk is globalizing!
Nuclear accidents with global consequences!
Photo US Navy ID 110312-N- 0000-X- 003

11. March 2011, Magnitude 9.1

Sumatra, 26.12.2004
230000 Fatalities!

Earthquake risk
is dynamically increasing!
The deadliest
tsunami catastrophe
the world has ever seen!

Earthquake risk is globalising!
552 Germans among the fatalities,
more thanin any natural disasterwithin Germany!

Drivers of Risk Dynamics and -Globalisation
In the developing world:
decreasing resilience due to poverty and the urban explosion!
Everywhere: Poorly developed cross-sectorial component of risk management!
In the industrialized world:
critical infrastructures and growing networking!
US$ 180,000,000

US$ 260,000,000,000?
>60 Megacities(over 5 Mill.)

2020
Moscow 11.73

Dhaka 22.04

Istanbul 12.76
Toronto 6.34

Calcutta 18.54

Bogota 10.8
Los Angeles 13.25
Tehran 8.86
Beijing 11.15
New York 20.43
Mexico City 21.81

London 7.59
Seoul 8.88

San Francisco 1906
Guatemala City 5.3

Lima10.32

San Francisco 20??

Cairo 14.04

US$ 2,800,000,000
Lagos 21.51

Rio de Janeiro 13.23
Santiago 6.71

São Paulo 21.57
Buenos Aires 15.48

Tokyo 1923
www. citymayors.com 2010

Risk Dynamics and Global Change

Kinshasa 10.04

Kabul 6.56
Karachi 18.94
Bengaluru 9.92
Mumbai 25.97
Chennai 8.88

US$ 2,000,000,000,000?
Tokyo 37.28

OsakaShanghai
12.6311.53
Metro Manila 13.40

Jakarta 20.77

Tokyo 20??

Risk Dynamics and Global Change
They occur at the contact
between man and nature!
Earthquake Hazard
in Europe

Vulnerability-Indicatorfrom night lighting
as observed from space

Risk
Changing
Changing
Hazard Dynamics Vulnerability

Risk dynamics is determined to a great extent by vulnerability changes!
But:Time-dependence of hazard
more important than usually accepted!
Jimenez et al.,is2003

Intensity
to be exceededwithX% probability
over the next
Y decades

SeismicHazardHazardMapsHow
good are they?
Assessment
State of the Art

Probability
that a given
intensity X
is exceeded
within the next
Y decades)

Hazard Germany
Intensity (EMS)III

Germany

IVV

Earthquakes in Japanthat caused 10 or more fatalities
They have occurred in places
it designates low hazard!

VI

globalVII

Many other examples worldwide:
Wenchuan 2008, Haiti 2010,…

Geller, 2011

national
Meeting the Challenges

VIII

Cross-boundary

Seismic
HazardAssessment

Intensity
to be exceeded
withX% probability
over the next
Y decades

State of the Art

Probability
that a given
intensity X
is exceeded
within the nextY decades)

Hazard Germany
Intensity (EMS)
IIIGermanyIVh!
cat!
prop enden
aynar e-indep
V atiottimss,
aldac treateitsi
Stat zard is VI
ThenationalMeeting the Challenges

haglobal

VII

VIII

Cross-boundaryClassical Earthquake Hazard Maps
Low earthquake probabilities in low seismicity areas,and high earthquake probabilities in high seismicity areasat any time!

They neglect
the earthquake cycle!
stresstime

Present
stressIn contradiction to the current hazard maps,
the present probability of having a large earthquake in Cologne
could be much higher thanthe present probability of a large earthquake in Central Italy!
Meeting the Challenges(hypothetically!)timeThe Specific Challenge“Time Dependent“Hazard Assessment
including physical process understanding,in particular for low probability earthquakes(based on seismology, paleoseismology, geodesy, modelling)• earthquake cycle• earthquake interaction

 accounting for earthquake “clustering“ in time

Meeting the Challenges

„Monitoring“ Vulnerability and Risk
GFZ-activity in the frame of GEM!
New Tools
are needed!

satellite remote sensing

Ground based
panoramic street view
with mobile 3D-cameraWe need to develop
a newqualityof multidisciplinary/cross-sectorial
cooperation
TheMany
Facettes of Vulnerability
Naturalrisks cannot be treatedsuccessfully
one risk
discipline/sector
alone!
inthe managementof naturalrisksbyanddynamics!

financial

structural

Vulnerability
economic

environmentalsocial