JSME Technology Roadmaps

August 28th 2009
The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

Introduction
Science and technologies showed rapid progress andpropagation in the twentieth century, prevented disasters
and accidents, overcame diseases, supplied many products
and materials, produced industries, and satisfied a varietyof needs for society. In the new century, technology andengineering are now turning their focus toward
guaranteeing continuity under environmental restrictions
and realizing sound, comfortable lives and safe and securesociety for people with different values.
With such a background, the Japan Society of
Mechanical Engineers must grasp its role in this age andcontribute to society as a group of specialists responsible
for machine-related technology and science. It establisheda Machine Day (August 7) and Machine Week (August 1 to7) in 2006, executed different events for making many
people understand the relationship between mechanicaltechnology and human society and the roles of thetechnology and engineers, and promoted activities for
fixing these days together with related organizations. In
2007, the 110th anniversary of its foundation, the Society
authorizes twenty-five Mechanical Engineering Heritagesof historical importance in Japan. Many people approve
the Society’s intention of saving the historical heritage of
mechanical technologies and leaving them to the next
generation as part of our cultural heritage.
On the 110th anniversary of foundation, the Japan
Society of Mechanical Engineers decided to prepare the
JSME Technical Roadmaps from an original point of view,in addition to authorization of the mechanical engineering
heritage, in order to meet the trust and relegation ofsociety to mechanical technology and the needs of thesociety as well as to lead society.
Ten years ago, i.e., the centennial of its foundation, theJapan Society of Mechanical Engineers reformed theorganization for the forthcoming 100 years. The JSME
Technical Roadmaps were strongly needed by members in
the process of that reformation. For determining thetechnical roadmaps, it was necessary to grasp the needs ofsociety; understand the legal regulations, principles,mechanisms, and limits of the technologies; and judge theeconomic efficiency, scale of the industry, consumer
tendencies, and many other factors in a comprehensive
manner. Quantitative examination has been very difficult
until now. Therefore, taking the opportunity of the 110th
anniversary, the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
has been promoting a project for the past two years inorder to meet member needs as a society of engineers
leading the world, accept the challenge of preparing
technical roadmaps; provide technical forecasts related tomachines; contribute to the research and development of
mechanical engineers and machinery manufacturers,
technical development, and enhancement of competition to
make Japanese technologies lead the world; and improve
the social raison d’etre of the Japan Society of MechanicalEngineers.

The current JSME Technical Roadmaps contain thefollowing matters viewed from the original point of view of
the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers. First, it picks
up the general-purpose physical parameters serving as
the keys of technologies like the Moore’s principle
evaluated in the semiconductor field as roadmaps from theacademic point of view, forecasts the time-to-time changesof their needs and numeric values and progresses,
discusses the possibility of increase in the future andlimits from the mechanical point of view, and clarifies therepresentation of the society that may be realized if theseparameters increase in the future. If we analyze theindustrial technologies, we understand that they aresystematically composed of many physical parameters,
and these physical parameters are important indetermining product performance common to theindustrial technologies in many fields. When we made the
JSME Technical Roadmaps, we tried to make many people
understand the importance of this point of view.
During the same period, the Ministry of Economy, Tradeand Industry made and publicized the Technical Strategy
Map 2006 and Technical Strategy Map 2007 that gathered
together the industrial, official, and academic best andbrightest to lead Japanese technologies. In many
discussions with the Ministry, the Japan Society of
Mechanical Engineers was proposed to contribute to theseTechnical Strategy Maps academically and undertook“establishment of academic roadmaps in the mechanicalfield” in the technical strategy map rolling work of the
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The society
membersagree
thatreflectionofcooperative
industrial-academic discussions upon the technologicalpolicy of Japan and contribution to the progress of theindustry will meet the purposes of the JSME Technical
Roadmaps.
In November 2006, the Japan Society of MechanicalEngineers established a technical roadmap committee in
its Industrial-Official-Academic Cooperation Center andasked the technical divisions of this Society to becommittee members in order to maintain the consistentactivities of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers in
the JSME Technical Roadmap project, which is expected
to contribute to the social, academic, industrial andnational processes. Many divisions agreed: thebioengineering, materials and mechanics, the materials
and processing, the engine systems, the thermal
engineering, the dynamics, measurement and control, therobotics and mechatronics, the environmental engineering,
thecomputational
mechanics,
information,theintelligence and precision equipment, the transportationand logistics, the design and systems, the technology andsociety, and the fluids engineering divisions. The working
groups (WG) of each division pointed out the technicalproblems in the element technology represented by eachdivision, carefully selected themes, and set the temporalindicators important for technical innovation. The

Technical Roadmap Committee examines these issues
comprehensively. As the first issue, we now publicize theroadmaps from ten divisions.
We conducted a workshop titled “Current Situation and
Problems of the Technical Roadmaps—Role of JSME
Technical Roadmaps” in the yearly convention at
Kumamoto University in September 2006 before thispublication. We also sponsored a special project titled“Mechanical Technology Leading Innovations—Prospect ofSociety in 2025 viewed from Technical Roadmaps” in the
yearly convention at Kansai University in September 2007
and exchanged meaningful opinions with many
participants. We will sponsor lectures at the ceremony forthe 110th anniversary of the foundation of the Japan
Society of Mechanical Engineers on October 26, 2007,
carry articles in the November and December issues of the
JSME Journals, prepare an English version of the JSME
Technical Roadmaps, and distribute them overseas.
Principle of Preparation
The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers focused on
the following basic principles when preparing the JSME

Technical Roadmaps.
・Selecting problems from the technical and industrial
point of view. Investigating the contents from theacademic point of view.
・Writing different opinions expressed during preparationin the roadmaps without unifying them forcedly.
・Writing and adding expected environmental changes andnecessary breakthrough.
・ Assuming that the roadmaps will be utilized byengineers and scholars in related fields as well as
nonprofessionals engaged in policymaking, managerial
judgment,planningofindustrial
technology
development, mass communication, education and soforth.
・Periodic reviews to update successive roadmaps with thelatest information.
It was decided to prepare the JSME Technical
Roadmaps in unified forms, since a system whereengineers from different technical fields may discuss from
common viewpoints is desirable to fulfill these purposes,
create new inter-element technologies, and for a bird’s-eyeview of the mechanical technology systems.

[First Form]: Describing the following matters.
(1) Aims of selecting the technical problems and themes(2) Social and technical needs for the technical problems(3) Possibility of mechanisms for achieving advanced key parameters(4) Prospects for the future[Second Form]: Providing time-series illustrations for an overview of thecontents in the first form.
・Describing the social and technical needs that require selected technicalproblems and themes in a simple manner.

Physical Indicators & Units
Year-by-year changes in the general-purpose key parameters related to thetechnical problems
・ Explaining the social and technical needs, based on which the key
parameters changed, and showing the curves of those changes, including
future changes.
・Selecting proper periods after the 1970s as the starting points according to
the technical fields. Providing the future prospect in 2030.

・Possibility of mechanisms for achieving advanced key parameters
・With what mechanisms can the numeric values in the JSME Technical
Roadmaps be achieved?
・What technical breakthroughs are needed?

・Prospects for the future
・Describing the social impacts when the JSME Technical Roadmaps are put
into practice in scenario form.
・Market scales if utilized by society.

Publication of JSME Technical Roadmaps“They are to be overcome – Expectation for JSME
Roadmaps”
Akira Nagashima
Chairperson of Ceremonial Project Committee for110th Anniversary of Foundation of Japan Society of
Mechanical Engineers
The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers started two
new projects for the society in the 110th anniversary offoundation. They are the JSME Technical Roadmaps andMechanical Engineering Heritages.
The roadmaps are prepared for the challenges toovercome them, though they are important tools fordeveloping the frontiers. If we only follow the guidelines,
our images will be fixed, and we will be beaten ininternational competition. I believe that both enterprisers
and scholars have a mission to overcome these roadmaps
with their concepts. Someone may say that, if so, noroadmaps are needed. However, if people going toward
unknown frontiers begin to walk with no roadmaps, their
behavior is simply reckless courage. I hope thatenterprisers, scholars, and even scientific technology
critics keep these roadmaps at hand as the scales formeasuring their thoughts and checking them quietly.
Enterprisers who will start new businesses, engineers who
are accepting the challenge of new technologies, andanyone who starts the new research cannot stop looking
into the JSME Technical Roadmaps once at least. I hopethat these roadmaps will grow into such materials.
It is impossible to find all necessaries in the roadmaps.
The JSME Technical Roadmaps make academic values as
selling points, while industries, in particular, may criticize
for being unrealistic with optimistic cost estimations. In
addition to academic roadmaps, there are politicalroadmaps and in-company roadmaps. I think that linking
these three roadmaps with each other will be effective.
The political roadmaps show new technologies andproducts needed strongly by the society in a chronic scale
toward the near future, though they cannot be actualized
or will not pay at present. The in-company roadmaps show
the economic bottlenecks of unprofitable problems, which
are needed socially and well known scientifically, and thepossibility and challenge points of the companies. It is
possible to forecast the future logically based on threefactors: Scientific and technical prospects, understandingof the social needs, and corporate profitability.
Showing roadmaps is one of the social tasks of thesocieties of scientists and engineers as specialist groups. I
believe that politicians, mass communication, and people

in the society will utilize them as safe and reliable
prospects. Their role of supporting the social confidence inthe scientific technologies is significant.
The JSME Technical Roadmaps should not be
stereotyped. They may possibly make interesting trials in
the future, since they cover the problems in limited fields.
I hope that the departments of the Society will makevarious trials and users will make use of them in various
ways.

“Challenge to Academic Societies”―Visualization of Research Strategy based on
Academic Sense of Value―

Masayoshi Watanabe
Manager of Production Policy Investigation Section,
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Can’t we have “research and technical roadmaps”
prepared by academicians? It was an earnest desire ofadministrators responsible for the scientific and technicalpolicies for the Society. It might be a challenge foracademic societies. Technical roadmaps are utilized
activelyasgeneral researchanddevelopment
management tools by private companies. The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry introduced technicalroadmaps as research and development management toolsof the government in 2005, though a little too late, andhas been using them continuously through year-by-year
revision (rolling). Does the academism accept such a
concept as the research and technical roadmaps? The
concept of as the research and technical roadmaps
prepared by the academic societies is not familiar and thewhole academic society rarely tried to prepare suchroadmaps in the past. Why? Scholars have an ample
reason why they can hardly accept roadmaps. It is thatthe essential activity of the society is developing thefrontiers in research activities and the society is a groupthat walks on undeveloped ways and pursues after thetruth. Kotaro Takamura, a great poet of Japan, wrote, “Noroads in front of me / Roads are made behind me.” Eachscholar is proud of creating his/her own original road.
Scholars and researchers may be very reluctant to draw ascenario of the future as if it had been made. It is extreme
to stop study if representation of the study is known.
Taking account of roadmaps of private companies thatbuild up research schedules of element technologies for
actualizing commodity plans meeting the needs of the
future markets, I understand that academicians canhardly accept them for the above-mentioned reason.

However, the party responsible for the scientifictechnology policy does not require such productdevelopment roadmaps of companies from academicians. I
think that academicians prepare their roadmaps based onacademic sense of values, while the technical strategy
map prepared by the Ministry of Economy, Trade andIndustry was prepared based on the industrial
technological sense of values. They need not, I believe,
fawn upon the sense of values of the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry, and it is important that they
determine some axes of values as scholars and express(visualize) how the future researches will develop or
should develop. Mutual understanding will not growunless we present our visions. Lack of mutual
understanding
may
be
the
cause
of
the
industrial-academic-official communication gap. I am
afraid that the academic societies have made little
discussions, tough it is quite important how to set thebasic axes for deciding the values of researches. It is thereason why I used such an expression as challenge to theacademic societies at the beginning. I pay my respects tothe eagerness of academicians who bravely challenged
such a quite heavy homework as “asking the academic
values of researches.” If subjects may be set as clear
indices and scholars share them as a common scenario, we
expect accelerated researches in the future. I greatly hopethat challenge of the societies will bear rich fruit,industrial-academic-official roadmap communication willshows a progress according to the scenario and the resultsof researches of the societies are fed back to the society.
Parts of the activities of preparing the JSME Technical
Roadmaps published here are carried out as a part of the“Technical Strategy Map Rolling Work in 2006:
Preparation of Academic Roadmaps for Linkage withTechnical Strategy Maps” entrusted by the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry.

Air Resistance (Aircraft)(1) Purpose
To suppress CO2 emissions from aircraft, reducing fuel consumption is of the utmost
importance. From the standpoint of flight operations, this might be achieved by switching to
new aircraft models and improving operation methods. From the viewpoint of engineering,
this might be achieved by improving engine fuel efficiency, reducing airframe weight,
improving the lift-to-drag ratio, and using alternatives to fossil fuels. This section discusses
technology that will contribute reductions in CO2 emissions by reducing air resistance andthereby improving the lift-to-drag ratio.
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues[1] By 2015, the European Union (EU) is scheduled to introduce a new tax on aircraft CO2
emissions. This will require marked reductions in CO2 emissions by that time. One aircraft
operating company, easyJet Co. Ltd., intends to reduce the CO2 emissions from its aircraft
50% by 2015, while aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. has announced the Performance
Improvement Package (PIP) for Boeing 777 model aircraft, which is intended to reduce CO2
emissions by upgrading existing airframes. Furthermore, there are growing needs fortechnologies that will lead to CO2 emission reductions from newly built airframes.
(3) Potential mechanisms for realizing advanced key parameters
As measures of reducing air resistance and improving lift-to-drag ratios, the following
points can be considered:First, takeoff and landing characteristics will be improved in order to improve fuel efficiency
and reduce environmental loading. [2] To achieve this improvement, we intend to establish atechnology that simultaneously optimizes airframe cruising configuration and high-lift devices
for use during takeoff and landing. This optimization will be realized using morphing
technology (technology for freely changing an airframe shape).
Next, friction resistance will be reduced to improve cruising characteristics and fuelefficiency. To achieve this, we will establish a natural laminar flow wing design technology
and develop a technology capable of converting a wing boundary layer into a laminar flow bymeans of boundary layer control.
Additionally, the induced resistance and interference resistance will be reduced to improvethe cruising characteristics, thereby increasing fuel efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions.
To accomplish this, we will establish a technology capable of reducing induced resistancethrough use of optimum wing end devices and flap scheduling, as well as a technology
aimed at reducing aerodynamic interference between fuselage and wings.
(4) Future society outlook
Based primarily on technologies that are already close to practical use, we intend to reduce
CO2 emissions by 50% by 2015. This will be accomplished by promoting technologicaldevelopments aimed at reducing air resistance and improving the lift-to-drag ratio.
Furthermore, we envision further air resistance reductions by the 2030s that will utilize
morphing and other breakthrough technologies that have yet to be established.

Social andtechnological requirements

ICAO gasemissionstandards
applied only
to NOx, HC,
CO, and
Soots. (1981)

ICAO initiateddiscussionsontechniques toreduce CO2
emissions.
(2004)

ICAO
discussed
techniques toreduce CO2
emissions.

100● 97.5

80

60
● 47

（g/km passenger）

Carbon dioxide emissions from A320 class aircraft

1２0

Zero CO2
emissions by
2050.

50%
reduction ofenergyconsumption.
Introductionof a CO2
emission rightacquisition
system foraircraft in andoutside EU(2012). ICAO
will establish
CO2 reduction
policies.

４0

20
Based on data announced to the press by easyJet (June 2007)
１９９５

Technologicalbreakthroughs
Social and market changes

Number ofjets inservice:
10,606(1997)

２０００

２００５

２０１０

２０１５

２０２０

First flight of
Honda Jet.
(2003)

Successful
flightexperiment of
JAXA small
supersonicaircraft.
(2005)

Implementati
on of naturallaminar flowwing
technology.

Implementati
on ofboundarylayer control
wing
technology.

CO2emissionsfrom private
aircraft:
572,000,000
tons (2000)

Number ofjets inservice:
15,929(2007)
Super-large
passenger
aircraft(A380)
introduced
into service
RNAV
introduced todomestic
routes in
Japan

CO2
emissionsfrom private
aircraft:
605,000,000
to776,000,000
tons (2010)
Boeing 787
entersservice.
First flight ofenvironmentfriendly small
passenger
plane MRJ.

Number ofjets inservice:
About 25,200(2017)

２０２５

２０３０

Implementati
on ofmorphing
technology.

Ultrasonicsmall
passenger
plane

Number ofjets inservice:
About 36,600(2028)
CO2
emissionsfrom private
aircraft:
1,228,000,00
0 to
1,488,000,00
0 tons (2025)

[Name of the
Savings
technology/solution]
Air Resistance(Aircraft)

Climate plan
2015
100

2030
100

2050
100

Consumption
after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

90

80

70

Net saving

10
120

20
120

30
110

_

_

_

100

100

100

Emission after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

90

80

70

T otalReduction

10

20

30

120

120

110

Consumption
if oldtechnologies
are sustained(BAU)

Baseline
2007
100

Cost (Investment, operation& maintenance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG reduction Emission if
oldpotential
technologies
are sustained
and withcurrent trends
(BAU)

100

Cost of GHG reduction

Using a value of 100 for the year 2007.

Design Engineering(1) Aims
The purpose of design engineering is supporting,guaranteeing, and creating product development. We
believe that it is one of missions of design engineering topredict the future as correctly as possible based on thepast changes of product development in the latter half ofthe 20th century, though we know that it is difficult topredict products in the future (in 2025, for example).
(2) Social and technical needs
When we consider how product development haschanged from the latter half of the 20th century and how
it will change in order to predict the design engineering in
2025, needs-oriented innovative portable audio products
were produced and propagation of semiconductors sincethen changed their quality further, for example. Notebook
PCs were produced following word processors and have
had wide applications in industries and homes.
Automobiles aim at low fuel consumption and hybrid
systems to reduce influences upon environment. It is
possible to develop hybrid systems by utilizing existing
motor technology relatively early. Like this, epoch-making
products were produced timely in the portable audio andcar industries. On the other hand, home electric
appliances are lack in remarkable products, though theyshow continuous progress toward higher performances,
higher efficiency, and advanced functions. We must saythat elements (technologies) and concept for leading
product development is insufficient.
(3) Future directions for determining key mechanisms
and parameters
We try to classify designs to clarify the direction inwhich design should progress by 2025. We correlate
designs with the Kano model and classify them into I, II
and III as shown below:
I. Must design (corresponding to the “Must-be quality” in
the Kano model)
Design must provide a design warranty. Many trouble
occur if Must design is ignored. This is the basis ofdesign, though it can hardly be evaluated and copedwith properly.
II. Better design (corresponding to the “One-dimensional
quality” in the Kano model)This can be coped with easily, since it may be evaluatedclearly. It finally results in cost competition. This is thedesign for improving efficiency.
III. Delight design (corresponding to the “Attractive
quality” in the Kano model)
Design in which design concept is the most important.
Many hit products were produced in this field. The pointis anticipating the technological and customer needs,
though they are likely to consider this as creative
design.
(4) Contributions to society
Three products and design technologies correspond to
three designs: Better products that support mass
production and mass consumption will be sorted, Must
products providing a design warranty will be the mainstream in the near future, and Delight products that makeus happy will be needed in the future. To achieve suchdevelopment, the design technologies must change fromthe traditional individual technologies into unification
technologies (true computer-aided design and true systemengineering).

All Rights Reserved, Copyright©
The Japan Society of Mechanical EngineersRoadmap to realize CO2 reduction by Design Engineering
２００５ー

２０１０ー

２０１５ー

２０３０ー

A） Trends of Social & Technical Needs：“ECO” Design Technology for the Earth“Delight” Design Technology for rich social and personal lives“Must” Design Technology for design assurance“Better” Design Technology for mass production & mass consumption

Limitations of local optimization, so will andchoice of current design technology

B) “Better” Design Technology：
3D-CAD: Drawing

Designing CAD

CAE for verification

CAE for design

Optimization

Optimization for design

Computer-Aided DesignC) “Must” Design Technology：

Realization of Systems Engineering applying
full mechanical engineering

DfX methodology

DfX for design

Infrastructure

Human centric design

Design process modeling

Design process optimization

Systems Engineering

Total design applying not only mechanicalengineering but other engineering and science
Design theory application
Generalized design theoryD) “Delight” Design Technology：
Design theory concept
Text baser KM

KM application for shape

KM for design

KANSEI design method

Integrated KANSEI information

Integration of KANSEI & designE) “ECO” Design Technology：

System design in harmony with the Earth

Simulation technology
Reduce design technology

LC design

LC design tech.
Sustainable design

Scenario for sustainable society
Sustainable design technology

Recycling design Recycling design technology
Energy & resource saving design
Manufacturing system
Manufacturing by minimum resource
Energy saving technology

Thermal Efficiency of Engines(1) Aims
The roadmap of the engine system department covers gasoline
engines used for passenger cars and motorbikes and diesel engines
for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and ships. Research on fuelbatteries also started recently. Improvement in thermal efficiency isimportant in the mechanical engineering field. From this point ofview, this roadmap predicts the future of fuel efficiency
improvement. Refer to the roadmap of the fuel consumption in car.
(2) Social and technical needs
Engines used in cars are closely related to our daily lives andused for inner- and inter-city transportation. It was necessary toclean exhaust gas from engines, so gasoline car emission control
started in 1966, and emission control applied to diesel cars in 1974.
Emission control is also applied to ship engines and off-roadvehicle engines. Stringent exhaust emission regulation will be
required in the future. Improvement in the thermal efficiency
capable of CO2 reduction is needed and is an important factor.
Improvement of the engine thermal efficiency is indispensable forpreventing global warming in the future.
(3) Future directions for determining key mechanisms
and parameters
Taking an example of large diesel engines for vehicles,
dev elop men t o f the d irect in jection (DI) syste ms, turbo
inter-coolers (TI), 4-valve/cylinder engines, and steel pistonsenhanced thermal efficiency improvement. Electronic-controlledpressure accumulating high-pressure fuel injection (common railtype), variable nozzle superchargers (VGT), and variable swirl
systems are produced by vehicle needs. Downsizing of vehicle
engines was achieved by TI engines in 1980 by utilizing output
increase due to superchargers, resulting in remarkable fuelefficiency improvement.
The following may be promising breakthrough technologies for
improving the thermal efficiencies of reciprocating engines:(1) New co mb ustion systems for reducing NOx and PM
simultaneously like pre-mixed compression ignition
combustion.
(2) Friction-reduced lubricant oil(3) Synthetic fuel featuring improved thermal efficiency(4) Mechanical, electrical and chemical technology of generating
and recovering thermal and kinetic energies(5) Transfer from de-fossil fuel to biomass fuel
The fuel cell is an important breakthrough technology currently
under examination. It is expected to be put into practical use from2015 to 2020.
(4) Contributions to society
As global warming shows rapid progress at present,
improvement of the engine thermal efficiency directly related to
CO2 reduction will possibly be accelerated by stronger external
impacts. Thus, researchers and engineers in this field should beready to take proper means of improving thermal efficiency at any
time as society requires.
Taking an example of passenger cars, if the thermal efficiencies
of a car at operating-area in the case of fuel economy at 15 km/L isdoubled, the car will run at 30 km/L with the same quantity of fuel,and CO2 emission is halved. In 2025, new fuel cell cars and hybridcars will be used widely, exhaust emissions will become cleaner,and CO2 emissions from cars will be reduced by 20 to 30 %.
As global warming shows rapid progress at present, needs for
improvement of the engine thermal efficiency directly related to
CO2 reduction will become greater. Technical innovation in thisfield may progress earlier than prediction. We expect that more
active discussions will be made based on this roadmap.
(5) Estimates of carbon dioxide reductions by 2050
CO2 emission reduction resulting from improving and maintaining
the performance of automotive combustion engines, and using
diesel engines on passenger cars, was estimated based on thefollowing conditions:
Thermal efficiency of automotive combustion engine (see thefigure)Thermal efficiency increase rate: 0.15 point/year (see the figure)
Number of cars owned: assumed to be stable at 80,000,000
Number of cars replaced: 3,000,000/year (based on Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) Statistics 2000-2006)
Car durability: Assumed to be 20 years
CO2 emissions from cars in 2006: 222,000,000 tons (based on
MLIT Statistics 2006)
The ratio of combustion engine types was assumed to be the sameas in 2006, except for passenger cars. In the passenger car sector,
the percentage of small diesel car sales was assumed to increaselinearly from 10% to the EU level of 60% during the period from2006 until 2050. The replacement of diesel cars with other diesel
cars in this sector was ignored.
Based on the above conditions, car replacement is expected to reduce
CO2 emissions by about 18,000,000 tons (−8.2% from 2006)and by
about 35,400,000 tons (−16% from 2006) in 2050.If passenger car salesin Japan were limited to diesel cars, all passenger cars in Japan would
be diesel-powered around 2030.Should that happen, CO2 emissions
would be reduced by about27,000,000 tons (−12% from 2006) in 2030
and by about39,000,000 tons (−18% from 2006) in 2050. If all cars
were to be replaced with hybrid or fuel cell models and if biofuels weremore commonly used, CO2 emissions would decrease even further.

Demand side
Base line
2006

Climate plan
2015

2030

2050

Thermal engines
of automobiles Savings

Consumption if oldtechnologies are
sustained(BAU)(PJ)
Consuption (PJ)
Net saving (PJ)
Cost (Investment, operation &maintenance, fuel)($ per PJ)
Cost per PJ saved
GHG
Emissions of old
reduction technologies arepotential sustained and withcurrent trends(BAU)
Emissions after
implementing newtechnology andmeasuresTotal reduction
potential
Cost of GHG reduction ($/Tons
CO2-equivalent)

222,000,000
tons

222,000,000
tons

222,000,000
tons

222,000,000
tons

216,000,000
tons

204,000,000
tons

187,000,000
tons

6,000,000
tons

18,000,000
tons

35,000,000
tonsHeat Pump Hot Water Supply Systems(1) Aims
A great amount of energy is consumed for supplying hot
water in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
CO2 emission from residential hot water supply systems
only is estimated to be approximately 70 million
tons-CO2/year. Recently, heat pump hot water supply
systems that may reduce CO2 emissions significantly is in
the process of propagation. Clarification of the roadmap of
this technology will contribute to further progress of theheat pump technology, which is important to suppress
global warming.
(2) Social and technical needs
Efficiency improvement and price reduction are common
needs. In addition, size reduction, noise reduction, andimprovement of performance in cold regions are also
required. Multi-function products, including floor heating
and central heating, snow melting products, direct hot
water supply type products, small local hot water supply
systems for lavatories, utilization of waste heat (such asremaining hot water after bathing), heat recovery systems(capable of simultaneous cooling and heating), hybrid
products,
commercial-use
products,
industrial-use
products and other various products, are needed.
(3) Possibilities of mechanisms for advanced key
parameters
There are many technical development elements,
including refrigerant, compressors, heat exchangers,
motor systems, recovery of refrigerant expansion energy,
waste heat recovery technology, hybrid technology, and soforth. Parts of these technologies are described below.
(a) Refrigerant
Refrigerants currently in use are mainly classified asfollows: Freon refrigerant and natural refrigerant. Various
types of refrigerants were developed according to the uses
and characteristics. The high temperature difference
heating values at 65 ºC differ with the refrigerant types,
while the theoretical COP(Coefficient of Performance) is
12.9. That of CO2 is 11.5, which is the highest, that of
R410 is 9.1, and those of other Freon refrigerants andhydrocarbon refrigerants are about 8. It is expected that
efficiency will be improved via circuit designs appropriate
to the refrigerant characteristics and advanced refrigerant

control.
(b) Hybrid technology
There are two types of main hybrid technologies:
utilization of boilers for industrial use and large-scale
users, and utilization of solar heat (solar panels) andground heat. In terms of system configurations, theparallel systems mix heat produced by solar panels andheat pumps in storage tanks or at the outlets, while theintegrated systems (installed on roofs, porches or walls)
incorporate
solar
panel
evaporatorsordecompressed-boiling solar panel evaporators in heatpumps. Solar heat hybrid systems are expected to haveremarkably improved efficiencies. If they are useddecompressed-boiling solar panel evaporators, theefficiency of heat pumps using butane refrigerant may
possibly be improved by about 80%.
(c) Noise reduction
Noise reduction technology is important, since hot water
storage type heat pump supply systems run at night. The
noise level has reduced in the past five years from 45 dB
to 38 dB owing to vibration reduction, suppression of noisetransmission in solid matter, and noise quality
improvement. Higher-speed rotation of compressors andfans is expected to further improve efficiency and reduce
the size. Thus, noise reduction technology including noise
quality improvement design and inverter technology
should be improved.
(4) Prospects for the future
Reduction of hot water needs by using high-performanceinsulating materials, improvements in efficiency of theheat pump hot water supply systems, and power
de-carbonization by increasing the renewable energy
power generation ratio and CCS (carbon dioxide captureand storage) are three major elements. In the long term,
the synergy effect of these three elements will reduce CO2
emissions in the hot water supply industry. The quantityof residential heat pump hot water supply systems will
increase up to 20 million or so by 2030. The expected CO2
reduction in 2030 including residential, commercial andindustrial facilities will be 29 million tons in Japan.
Besides, export to overseas countries will increase, since
Japanese manufacturers are good at these technologies.

All Rights Reserved, Copyright©
The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

Ａ．Social and Technical Needs
2001-2005
・CO2 reduction in hot water supply industry
・Improvements in efficiency of hot water storage systems
・Noise reduction
・Performance improvement for cold regions
2005-2010
・Direct hot water supply systems
・Size reduction (Storage tank integrated type)・Water heaters for snow melting
・Middle-size hot water storage systems for commercial and industrial use
・Hybrid systems (boilers)
2010-2015
・Hybrid systems (solar and ground heat)・Larger-capacity hot water supply systems
・Waste heat utilization hot water supply systems
・Double-bundle condenser hot water supply systems (heat recovery systems)
2015-2020
・Performance improvement for very cold regions
・Recovery of hot water supply waste heat (remaining hot water and waste hot water)・Waste heat recovery type small-size local hot water supply systems
2020-2025
・Small-size direct hot water supply systems using water as heat sources
・Large-size systems for industrial use (heavy use)
2025-2030
・Vapor generation heat pumps
・Very small-size and high-efficiency type products

Ｂ．Energy Consumption Efficiency
8
COP of heat pump unit※
APF(Annual Performance Factor) of
hot water supply system

Energy Consumption Efficiency

7

6

5

※ <Rated heating condition>
Outdoor temperature : 16℃DB/12℃WB
Temperature of cold water supply : 17℃
Temperature of outgoing hot water : 65℃

4

3
2001
1 3

5

7 20109 11 13 15 17 2020
19 21 23 25 272030
29 31 33 35 37 2040
39 41 43 45 47 2050
49

Ｃ．Technical BreakthroughTechnical
Breakthrough2001～20102010～2020

2020～2030

・Development of CO2 refrigerant Heat Pump Water Heater④ High-efficiency ejector cycles⑤ Optimum design of high-efficiency. Small-size DC motors⑥ SiC power devices⑨ Vacum heat insulators⑬ Utilization of underground heat① High-efficiency refrigerant circuit design technology⑥ High-efficiency matrix converter⑫ Exhaust heat recovery⑩ Load forecast control⑬ Using solar heat panels together① Advanced refrigerant control technology② Further size reduction using surface tension③ Micro-channel type heat exchangers④ Power recovery compressors with integrated expanders⑬ Decompressed-boiling solar panel evaporators① Development of new refrigerant⑤ Next-generation sensor-less PM motors⑨ High-density thermal storage and latent thermal storage① Water refrigerant double-bundle condenser hot water supply systems(heat recovery systems)⑫ Heat recovery from wastewaterReference① ~ ⑬① Improvement of high-performance refrigerant technology② Improvement of gas/liquid separator technology③ Improvement of heat exchanger technology
Reducing air resistance of heat exchangers and improving heat transmission of finsand heat transfer pipes④ Improvement of expansion valve technology
Improving efficiency and recovering expansion power⑤ Improvement of motor technology⑥ Improvement of inverter technology⑦ Improvement of compressor technology
Reducing mechanical losses and internal leak losses, increasing compression ratio,
increasing capacities, and reducing noises⑧ Improvement of fan technology
Improving efficiency and reducing noises⑨ Improvement of hot water storage technology⑩ Improvement of control technology
Quantity control, outlet temperature control, thermal storage and radiation control,and defrosting control⑪ Improvement of simulation design technology⑫ Improvement of waste heat utilization technology⑬ Improvement of hybrid technology
Ｄ．Changes of Society and Markets
Changes in Society
and Markets

2001～2010

・ Number of shipped heat pump hot water supply systems increased by 50%
or more every year.
・ Subsidy system for CO2 refrigerant Heat Pump Water Heater・ Approx. 20 companies entered heat pump hot water supply system market.
・ Number of products reached 1 million (2007)
・ Number of products reached 1.5 million (2008).
・ First commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol (2008)
・ Number of products will reach 5.2 million (2010).
2010～2020 ・ Second commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol (2013)
・ Total number of homes will stop at 50 million.
・ Consumption of electric power of new renewable energy: 16 billion kW (2014)
・ Average people per family will lower below 2.5
・ Japanese influences upon the LNG market will lower (from about 50%
down to 19%).
2020～2030 ・ Average people per family in Tokyo will be below two first in Japan.
・ Peak of traditional petroleum production
・ Energy consumption in Asian countries will be doubuled in comparison
with that in 2004.
・ Number of products reached about 20 million. (2030)

Savings[Name of thetechnology/solution]
Heat Pump Hot
Water Supply
Systems

Consumption
if oldtechnologies
are sustained(BAU)

Baseline
2007
100

2050
100

Consumption
after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

(96)

(77)

(28)

Net saving

(4)

(23)

(72)

-

-

-

100

100

100

Cost (Investment, operation &maintenance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG
reduction
potential

Climate plan
2015
2030
100
100

Emission if
oldtechnologies
are sustained
and withcurrent trends(BAU)
Emission after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures
Total
Reduction
Potential

100
2,537MtCO2

2,537Mt- 2,537Mt- 2,537MtCO2
CO2
CO2
96

77

28

2,443Mt- 1,956MtCO2
CO2

719MtCO2

493MtCO2

23
580MtCO272
1,818MtCO2

-

-

-

Cost of GHG reductionCreation of lightweight automobiles(1) Purpose
Roughly 20% of all CO2 emissions are from automobiles. Therefore, improving thefuel efficiency of automobiles is an effective way to reduce CO2 emissions. Sinceacceleration loss and rolling resistance increase in proportion to vehicle weight,
reducing vehicle weight is an effective means of reducing CO2 emissions (Fig. 1).
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues
To improve such performance issues as collision safety and steering stability,
automobile weights have tended to increase in recent years. Materials, structuraldesigns, and production technologies that simultaneously achieve both performanceand fuel efficiency are necessary.
(3) Potential mechanisms for achieving key parameters· Structural design and production technologies are expected to reduce the weight ofautomobile component materials, curtail the amount of materials used, and to ensure
the lightweight materials used possess the necessary rigidity and strength.

· Material technology: Weight reduction by substituting iron and steel components
with aluminum, plastic, and other materials that possess small specific gravities or by
reducing component thickness by using high-tension steel.

· Structural design: Use of [1] Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) for multi-purpose
performance optimization in areas such as collision safety, vibration and noise
reduction, strength and steering stability, and improved productivity.

· Production technology: Continuous welds with improved rigidity achieved using
lasers or structure bonding agents and the formation of high strength materials of
various shapes.
(4) Future society outlook
For electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) that have increased weight
due to their batteries, advances in structural design technologies using CAE andmaterials technologies, including processing technology, are expected tosimultaneously achieve safety, operational performance, comfort, and low fuelconsumption.
[References]
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan: Automobiles in 2030 - Scenario of Automotive Technology
Developments by Specialists in the Second Field of Technology
Automotive Technology Vol. 62, No. 3 (2008) Feature: Challenge for Higher Fuel Efficiency

Fig.1. CO2 emissions by passenger vehicles
MLIT: http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/nenpi/nenpilist/05.pdf(Quotation not yet approved)

Savings[Name of thetechnology/solution]
Creation oflightweightautomobiles

Climate plan
2015
130

2030
150

2050
200

90

90

100

40
110

60
130

100
150

_

_

_

130

150

200

Emission after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

90

90

100

T otalReduction

40

60

100

110

130

150

Consumption
if oldtechnologies
are sustained(BAU)
Consumption
after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

Baseline
2007
100

Net saving
Cost (Investment, operation& maintenance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG reduction Emission if
potentialoldtechnologies
are sustained
and withcurrent trends(BAU)

Cost of GHG reduction100Automobile Traffic Flow Control(1) Purpose
To reduce vehicle CO2 emission totals, it is essential to improve average traveling speeds byrealizing smooth traffic flows, as well as to improve the fuel efficiency of each vehicle. The
utilization of [1] Electronic Toll Collection System (ETC) and other communication technologies
is expected to significantly improve future traffic flows. Showing approaches for specificmeasures will contribute greatly to the early implementation of a ideal future traffic system.
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues
It is said that global CO2 emissions must be halved by 2050 to prevent global warming. The
transportation sector is responsible for about 20% of the CO2 emissions in Japan andautomobiles account for 90% of that total. According to a trial calculation, economic losses
resulting from time wasted due to traffic congestion amounts to 12 trillion yen a year, which isequivalent to about 15% of the national budget. To achieve the formation of a sustainable trafficsociety in the future, it is very important to improve traffic flows as well as raise transportationrelated energy and time efficiencies.
(3) Potential mechanisms for achieving advanced key parameters
The keys to realizing smooth traffic flows are the prediction of traffic conditions and theimplementation of traffic flow control based on those predictions. Traffic flow predictions can be
simulated in real-time based on traffic information collected from vehicle sensors on roads andfrom probe cars as well as past traffic data. Based on the simulation, optimum route information
can be provided to drivers and traffic signals can be optimally controlled to prevent traffic
congestion and prevent traffic jams at bottlenecks. Further future advances in high-speed andlarge-capacity communication technologies will enable more smooth interactions between
vehicles and traffic signals, and among vehicles. This will reduce vehicle stops at intersections
as well as speed decreases that occur when vehicles encounter each other during merging andlane changes, and subsequently improve the average traveling speed. [2] To achieve the early
implementation of these new traffic systems, it is necessary not only to improve technologies but
also to establish a strong cooperation of the numerous stakeholders that includes systemstandardization, establish of a social consensus etc.
(4) Future society outlook
At the present time, [3] Intelligent Transportation System （ITS） related efforts will aim at promoting
the practical use of the Dynamic Route Guidance System (DRGS) and GreenWave in order toimprove traffic flows. Around 2050, it is expected that a high-grade infrastructure coordination
system will exist that enables easy monitoring of surrounding traffic situations andcommunication between drivers and which will realize well-controlled traffic flows that are free of
sudden accelerations or decelerations. In addition, a system that collects detailed [4] OriginDestination (OD) information in advance will prevent congestion by providing optimum route
guidance. By 2100, automatic driving will be possible. Particularly in cities, where perfected
centralized traffic control systems will optimize traffic flows for all vehicles, railways, and newmodes of transportation.
References:1.
Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan: November 2008 Vol. 62Feature: Measures For
Realizing Cool Earth 50; Project by The Institute of Applied Energy
2.
Feature: Next-generation Automobile and Fuel Initiative (METI)
3.
NEDO Energy Conservation Technology Forum 2008
4.
Other: AHS Roadmap, ITS Roadmap of Second Tomei Expressway, and references from theRadio Regulatory Council of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC)Automobile Traffic Flow Control
New National
Energy Strategy(2006)
Improving energy
efficiency 30% from2003 levels by 2030.

Social and technologicalrequirements

Kyoto Protocol(1997)
Reducing CO2
emissions 6% from1990 levels by 2012.

Cool Earth50（2008）
Reducing CO2
emissions by 50%
from 2008 levels
by 2050.

●［Average traveling speed (ｋｍ/ｈ）］

40
Average vehicle
speed in three major
cities: 2 times(CO2 emissions 30%
down).[1]●30

Average vehicle
speed in three major
cities: 1.5 times(CO2 emissions 20%
down).

20

●

●

１９９５

２０００

２００５

２０１０

Technologicalbreakthroughs

Wireless
Cleansing ofcommunicati
probe
oninformation andtechnology
Traffic flow
other large datameasurement
volumes(image-typevehicle detector,
etc.)
Environmental
recognition

Social and market changes

Practical use
of DRGS by
Probe Car
Initiation ofDriving Safety
Initiation of
SupportPractical use ofexperiments
Systems
signal control
for new signal(DSSS)
systemcontrol
experiment(MODERATO)(Profile, etc.)
Spread of realtime fuelChange ofPractical use
gauge
expressway
of Electronic
Eco-driving
speed limit for
Toll Collection
routelight vehicles(ETC)
informationand motorbikes
systems（80→100km/h）
Large-scale Retail Strengthened
Store Building Law parking
regulations
Start of
VICS
service

Congestion
information
service by
Probe Car

２０１５

Practical use of
Mobile WiMax(10Mbps)
Prediction ofvehiclebehavior
Data
compression

２０２０

２０２５

２０３０

Standardization ofImproved GPSinter-vehicle
position accuracy
communication (1 m or less)Protocol.
Vehicle groupcontrol
Personal
mobility

Automatic
driving

Experiment for
Merging
Smooth merging support
advanced
and lane change systemsignal control
using probe
Expressway
information
Signal linkage
automatic
Optimum departureEco-driving
driving andtime prediction
file runsystem (usingprobe information) Intelligent logistics
systemTraffic demand
management(Road pricing) Sharing system
of Electric
Sag congestion personal
Secondmobility
prevention
Tomei
vehicle[2]systemExpressway
to beProduction
completedstarted for EV

Signal linkage
Green Wave

[Name of t he
Savingst echnology/solut ion]Aut omobile T raffic
Flow Cont rol

Consumpt ion
if oldt echnologies
are sust ained(BAU)
Consumpt ion
aft erimplement ing
newt echnology
and measures
Net saving

Baseline
2007
100

Cost (Invest ment , operat ion& maint enance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG reduct ion Emission if
oldpot ent ial
t echnologies
are sust ained
and wit hcurrent t rends(BAU)
Emission aft er
implement ing
newt echnology
and measures
T ot alReduct ion
Cost of GHG reduct ion

100

Climate plan
2015
120

2030
130

2050
150

95

85

90

25
_

45
_

60
_

_

_

_

130

150

200

100

100

120

30

50

80

_

_

_

Fuel Cell Vehicle(1)Purpose
It is anticipated that in the 21st century, today’s fossil-based energy society willchange to a hydrogen-based energy society, which will utilize the ultimate clean
energy source. Fuel cell vehicles are expected to play a very important role in thischange. Therefore, establishing this technological field is a matter of great social andacademic significance and is expected contribute to the development of mechanicalengineering.
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues
Currently, automotive manufacturers are leading the development of fuel cellvehicles. Some vehicles capable of operating on public roads already exist, although
their supplies are limited. Additionally, various companies are working in a number ofengineering fields to generate power from fixed and installed fuel cells, and to supply
hydrogen.
(3) Potential mechanisms for achieving advanced key parameters
The primary issues related to fuel cell vehicles include the [1] durability of fuel cellstack and costs. However, improvements to hydrogen storage methods are also
important from safety perspectives and suppliers must establish an infrastructure for
producing, transporting, and stocking hydrogen.
Reductions to the amount of precious metals required for fuel cell stack is especially
important in terms of costs and stable supply and its achievement will require a major
technological breakthrough. As sources of driving force, motors for hybrid vehicles
must be made as efficient and compact as possible. Therefore, new technologies,
including those related to structural mechanics and materials, must becomprehensively improved.
(4) Future society outlook
Currently energy conservation and reducing exhaust emissions are the mostimportant issues. [2] During the transition from internal combustion vehicles to hybrid
and electric vehicles, various changeover technologies will be needed, including newtechnologies related to internal combustion.
There are issues to solve in each technological field. Without dramatic breakthroughs,[3] the system for transportation and logistics will be formed on the basis of theadvantage of each field.
Fuel cell vehicles are considered ideal because of their efficiency and zero CO2emissions. Resolving the above issues will enable the rapid propagation of thesevehicles.

Social and technologicalrequirements

Reduction of
exhaustemissions

Reduction of
exhaustemissions

Reduction of
exhaustemissions
Regulations forexhaustemissions andfuel consumption
in Japan, USA
and Europe will
be greatly
strengthened(problem for
automobile
industry in 2009)
Euro 5 (new EU
automobile
emission
regulation)

Reduction ofenergyconsumption
to half
New tax toreduce CO2
emissionfrom aircraftin EU

Achievementof new fuelconsumption
standard bygovernment(passenger
vehicle: 16.8
km/L, smallbus: 8.9km/L, small
truck 15.2
km/L)

(Reducingenergydemand 60%
by 2050)［Fuel consumption (km/L)]

２２

２０● 18.5１８

１６● 15.1
１４

Average 10・15 mode fuelconsumption of all gasoline
vehicles including light motor vehicles● 13.5● 12.3
１２

１９９５

２０００

２００５

２０１０

TechnologicalbreakthroughHybridization(gasoline anddiesel)Social and market changes

Automobile
NOX Law(1992)
Tokyo's
campaign for
no diesel
vehicles (since
1999）
Revised Energy
Conservation
Law (1999)

Automobile
NOX･PM Law
Domestic
automobile
production:
10.5 mil., sales:
5.87 mil.

２０１５

２０２０

Integration of
DPF andurea SCR
methods foremission gas
purification

Commercializat
ion of nextgenerationelectric vehicles
that suppress
operating costs
to 1/8 that ofgasoline
vehicle.
"Urea SCR
system"(reducing NOｘ
into nitrogen
and water)
becomes theprimary device
in measures for
reducing gas
emissions
Bioethanol for
use asautomobile fuelto reach an oil
equivalent of
500,000
kiloliters (2010)

Domestic
automobile
production:
10.52 mil.,sales: 5.6 mil.
Spread ofelectric vehicles
with fuel cells.
(Number ofsuch vehicles
registered inJapan: 50,000)
Market scale ofrechargeable
batteries forhybrid vehicles
reaches 300 bill.
yen
Number of
hybrid vehicles
in Japan, USA,and Europe
markets: 2.19
mil.

Domestic
automobile
production:
10.65 mil.,sales: 5.43 mil.
Spread of fuelcells forenvironmentfriendly andefficient use
Portable powercell (for electricvehicle, etc.)
Global market
scale of diesel
vehicles togrow to 29 mil.
cars/year
Global marketof hybrid
vehicles: 5.37
million cars

２０２５

２０３０

Practical use
of ＮＯＸ direct
decompositio
n technology

Practical use
of gasoline Ｈ
ＣＣＩ
combustion
Practical useof ＨＦＣＶ

Spread of inareatransportation
by very
lightweightcompact
vehiclesTotal traffic
volume in 2020
to 2030 up 16%
from thepresent,
reaching apeak
Number of fuelcell vehicles
registered inJapan: 5 mil.
Infrastructure
network forhydrogen
supply to fuelcell vehicles

Total share offuel cell, hybrid,and electricvehicles toaccount for
about 40%(2050)
Cell
performance
improves; plugin electricvehicles spread
Total traffic
volume inaround 2030 up
20% from thepresent,
reaching apeak
Number of fuelcell vehicles
registered inJapan: 15 mil.

[Name of the
Savings
technology/solution]
Fuel cell vehicle

Consumption
if oldtechnologies
are sustained(BAU)

Baseline
2007
100

Consumption
after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures
Net saving
Cost (Investment, operation& maintenance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG reduction Emission if
potentialoldtechnologies
are sustained
and withcurrent trends
(BAU)

100

Emission after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures
T otalReduction
Cost of GHG reduction

Climate plan
2015
120

2030
130

2050
150

120

125

135

0
5

5
0.5

15
0.2

_

_

_

130

150

200

130

147

180

0

3

20

5

0.5

0.2

Using a value of 100 for the year 2007.
[2] The above listed effects are limited to the fuel cell vehicles
and the extent to which fuel cell vehicles spread is notconsidered. The costs provided are relative to a value of 100
for the prototype in 2007, including manufacturing and otherinfrastructure expenses.

Materials & Mechanics for Higher Efficiency/Output Energy Systems(1)AimBecause of increasing demand on energy around the current
world, it is indispensable to improve the efficiency of power
plants mainly for reducing the emission of CO2 as well assavings of resources. For fossil power plants, fluid temperatureand pressure conditions should be upgraded drastically for
attaining higher efficiency within the minimum the total life
cycle cost. For nuclear power plants, higher output and higher
reliability should be achieved.
It is the aim of this roadmap to show how the technologies
related to materials and strength section lead to new powersystems with minimum environmental impact and energy
consumption.
(2)Social and technical needs for technical problems
The technical problems for materials and strength are thedifficulties for attaining high temperature strength of materials
used in the energy systems. From the economical andstrategic point of view, strengthening elements in the materials
should be carefully selected. Rare elements should not be usedeasily and should be fully recycled using pollution free methods.
The key requirements are to optimize the material selection
and application to structural components. As no serious
accident should be allowed even for very high efficiency
machines, the use of suitable materials and the optimization of
total life cycle cost of power plants are the most important
requirements.
(3)Key parameters
Key parameters affecting the efficiency and output are thefluid temperature and pressure for thermal power plants and
MW output power for nuclear power plants. The measures inmaterials and mechanics field to attain the target values of
those parameters are as follows. One is the scale of structural
analysis applicable to actual large scale components and theother is the applicability of long term life assessment method
for components under complex service or damaging conditions.
For new materials developed for new types of plants, newstructural evaluation methods will be developed in this field
and this process will be continued for the future energy
systems.
(4)Possibilities of mechanisms for advanced key parameters▪ Developing the structural strength and life evaluation
technology for a variety of heat-resistant and robust materials
to enable design for improving the steam temperature andpressures of steam power plants.
▪ Developing the structural strength evaluation and life
extension technology for heat-resistant and thermal barriermaterials for improving the gas temperature of gas turbine
plants.
▪Developing the environmental strength evaluation technology
to ensure the reliability of higher output nuclear power plants.
(5)Prospects for the future society▪Developing various types of high-efficiency machines using

diversified energy resources designed by new strength
evaluation technology for environmental, energy security andeconomical reason.
▪ Developing the maintenance and retrofit technologies forutilizing the existing facilities more efficiently to attain theenvironmental and economical target for stable supply ofelectric power in the world.

Specific strength of materials(1 )Purpose
Humans have always yearned for strong materials and have worked diligently
throughout history to create new materials. Currently, people are not just seeking strong
materials, they also desire materials that possess the added value of light weight.
[1]In the case of transportation, constructing transportation equipment using materials thatpossess great specific strength is the most effective method to reduce transportation costs
and enhance safety. This also satisfies the national-level requirement of reducing CO２
emissions as part of overall energy conservation efforts. Therefore, by noting the specificstrength of metallic and nonmetallic materials, while taking in consideration the technology
needed for combining materials, [2] the machine materials and materials processing
division has reviewed past results and predicted future potentials. Since material
development takes longer than other research fields, we will describe the transition ofdemand for materials that possess great specific strength beginning with the first half ofthe 20th century.
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues
Materials of great specific strength are used in various fields, including transportationequipment, architecture, medical care and social welfare. The social and technologicalrequirements and purposes include the following:•Demand from the fiercely competitive aircraft industry for large airframes in order toachieve low fuel consumption, and reduced noise•Reduction of fuel consumption by automobiles for environmental protection and fuel costcurtailment•Development of high-speed railway networks and lightweight, energy-saving train cars
• [3]Governmental guidance related to anti-seismic building structures and increasingly tallhigh-rise buildings• Reduction of the burden on care workers by providing improved welfare and careequipment to the aged society•Demand for improved sports equipment(3) Potential mechanisms that achieve high-grade key parameters
Materials that possess great specific strength were first applied to national aerospacedevelopment, medical care and sports projects, which are areas where the financial
aspect is a secondary consideration. The materials then spread into general society use.
To ensure the full diffusion of such materials throughout society, cost reduction is a
decisive factor. If manufacturing costs can be reduced, the consumption of these materials
will increase and with increased use, manufacturing costs will decline even further. In the
future, further improvements to materials with specific levels of strength will be essential
as a matter of course. Additionally, it will be important to improve the technology needed
to combine such materials, and to develop materials that have strong thermal andenvironmental resistance. as well as great specific strength. Ensuring the ease ofworkability of these materials and eliminating any harmful effects on human involved in
the manufacturing processes will also be important.
(4) Future society outlook
As part of future research and development efforts into materials that have great specificstrengths, we will need to plan for their social influences by assuming they will be
distributed widely among the public. In other words, we will need to develop thesematerials while taking into consideration what influence they will have on the global
environment as well as the need to recycle such materials after they reach the end of theirservice life.

・Reduction of
automobile fuelconsumption
・Expectations
towardcarerelated medical
equipment
・Anti-seismic
structures
・Increasingheights of highrise buildings

・Advanceofaircraft steel
・Advanceofhigh-speed
railway
networks
・Space Shuttle
Project
・Expectations
towardhighlyfunctional sports
equipment (golfclubshafts,tennis rackets,
etc.)

・U.S. Apollo
Project
・Developmentof civilian
aircraft

125・CO2 reduction

Carbon nanotube

120

83

35

43

Specific strength relative to steel

Aramid fiber
PAN carbon fiber

30

33

20

25
Pitch-type carbon fiber

020Nylon fiber

Boron fiber

Glass fiber

15
Polyester resin

10

5

0

Maraging steel
Magnesium alloy
Titanium alloyHighstrength
Steel
steel

1930

Technological breakthroughs

・Developmentof duralumin by
Wilm

Alumina fiber
Super duralumin

1940

1950

1960

1970

・Successful
synthesis of 66Nylon by
Wallace
Carothers

Social and market changes

Restoration
after theSecond WorldWarHigh economic
growthMassconsumption
Privateautomobile
ownership
boom
Automobile
exhaustgas
problem

1980

1990

2000

2010

・Invention of
PAN carbon
fiber by Dr. Akio
Shindo・Developmentof C/C carbon

・Discovery ofcarbonnanotubes

First Oil Crisis

Global warming

SecondCrisisDevelopment oflarge aircraft

Oil

Aged society
Anti-seismic
measures

2020

2030

Appearance of
emerging
countries

Weight reduction relative to pitch-type carbon fibers (％)

Social and technologicalrequirements

・Developmentofmilitary
aircraftEnergy-saving Carriages for Tokaido Shinkansen Trains(1) Purpose
Compared with other means of transportation, railways offer a number of excellent
characteristics such as high-energy efficiency and reduced impact on the global
environment. Therefore, clarifying the excellent characteristics of the Tokaido
Shinkansen and other railways will contribute to global environmental conservation.
With such conservation in mind, we are aggressively working on ways to reduceenergy consumption by Shinkansen train carriages.
(2) Social and technological requirements for technical issues
About 40 million people travel between the Tokyo and Osaka areas each year. A
close examination of this economic and social artery shows that the transportation
volume provided by the Tokaido Shinkansen during fiscal 2006 was approximately
equal to that provided in fiscal 1990, but that CO2 emissions declined substantially
due to energy conservation efforts. [1] In contrast, while the transportation volume
provided by aircraft grew due to an increase in the number of flights, the volume of
CO2 emissions from aircraft almost doubled. In fact, the transportation data forfiscal year 2006 indicates that a transportation shift from aircraft to the Tokaido
Shinkansen could reduce the total amount of CO2 emitted from 900,000 tons to
390,000 tons annually,
This indicates that even though the time required for an aircraft and a Tokaido
Shinkansen to travel between the two cities is roughly the same, depending on thetransportation selected, [2] CO2 emissions could be curtailed by as much as 510,000
tons yearly. This equals the annual CO2 emissions from about 98,000 generalhouseholds.
If this shift had been assumed from fiscal 1990, the reference year of the Kyoto
Protocol, total emissions could have been curtailed about 30%, from approximately
580,000 tons to approximately 390,000 tons.
(3) Potential mechanisms for achieving key parameters
JR Tokai has worked diligently to improve energy conservation by upgrading thetrain carriages and making other qualitative and quantitative improvements. An
example of these efforts is reflected in the upgrades to Tokaido Shinkansen
carriages. While the maximum speed of the Tokaido Shinkansen was 220 km/h at its
1987 inauguration, due to carriage speed improvements, it was raised 50 km/h to a
top speed of 270 km/h in 1992 with the introduction of the Series 300 model trains.
This increase was the result of aggressive efforts to improve power electronics andother technologies. Since that time, at relatively short cycles of seven to eight years,
the train carriages have been further upgraded to Series 700 and Series N700.
Furthermore, simulations conducted on the Tokyo and Shin-Osaka run showed aremarkable decrease in energy consumption by the Series N700, which is just half ofthat consumed by Series 0 trains, despite the fact that the maximum speed of Series
0 trains was 32% slower. These improvements are the results of stringent carriage
weight reduction, aerodynamic streamlining, power regenerative braking thatrecycles consumed energy, the carriage-body tilting system, and other new
technologies.

■ Reduction of carriage weight
Carriage weight reduction greatly improves energy conservation performance.
After the Series 300, we adapted bolsterless trucks to Series 700 and N700 models
because of their simpler structures. The Series 700 and N700 also adopted bodies
made of lightweight aluminum alloy instead of the steel bodies used in the Series 0
and 100 trains. Furthermore, the Series 0 and 100 trains used DC motors, while theSeries 300 and later trains adopted extremely efficient and compact AC motors that
epitomized the advances in semiconductor technologies.
These and other efforts have made Series 300 or later carriages over 250 tons eachlighter Series 0 carriages.
■ Reduction of running resistance
To reduce running resistance, a new nose shape that provides excellent
aerodynamic characteristics was developed for Series N700. The nose shape was
the result of approximately 5000 computer simulations and wind tunnel experiments.
The shape was named "Aero double wing" because it resembles a bird flying withoutstretched wings. For cabin windows, the window glass was integrated with themetal exterior of the carriage to create a smooth surface with no level differences.
Furthermore, the joints between each carriage are covered with hoods designed toprovide a smooth exterior to the entire train.
These efforts have reduced the running resistance of Series N700 trains by about
20% in comparison compared with the Series 700.
■ Extension of power regenerative brake
A power regenerative brake system converts kinetic energy into electric energy(power generation) by using electric motors as generators during braking, and thenchanneling the generated power to the overhead line for use by other trains, hasbeen adopted. JR Tokai put power regenerative braking to practical Shinkansen use,
for the first time, with the Series 300 and has continued to use it with Series 700 and
N700 trains.
For Series 700 trains, 12 of the normal 16 carriages were equipped with the brakesystem, but with the Series N700, the brake systems was extended to 14 carriages
in order to acquire all the braking force usually required for a train equipped with thepower regenerative brake system. This has further raised the energy efficiency andcontributed to reductions in Shinkansen energy consumption.
■ Implementation of carriage-body tilting system
To increase operating speeds on speed-limited curves, the Series N700 adopted acarriage-body tilting system. This system enables the train to negotiate curves atincreased speed while maintaining a comfortable ride. The system has resulted intime savings not just for negotiating the curves, but by reducing the need foracceleration and deceleration as well as its frequency. This has made further
contributions to energy conservation.
When the Shinagawa Tokaido Shinkansen station was opened in October 2003,
we replaced all carriages with the high-speed, energy-efficient Series 700 and 300
models.
In July 2007, The Series N700, which offers improved service and environmental
performance entered service. Use of this model had reduced energy consumption (*)
by about 19% at the end of fiscal 2007. (*Based on the amount of energy require tooperate run one carriage for 1 km).

By fiscal 2011, 80 trains consisting solely of Series N700 carriages will be inoperation and thus strengthen the environmental superiority of the Tokaido
Shinkansen. By improving our service and encouraging more users to select and use
Tokaido Shinkansen, we will contribute to reducing the environmental load of theentire transportation sector.
(4) Future society outlook
Various means of transportation have different characteristics. For long-distancetransport to overseas destinations, aircraft may be the most suitable means available.
However, for rather short distances and areas of great demand, such as the route
between the Tokyo and Osaka areas, it is clear that the Shinkansen is a rapid andsuitable mass transportation system.
By shifting passenger demand to the environmentally superior Shinkansen, CO2
emissions can be curtailed. As one of the solutions to the global warming problem inthe 21st Century, we think that role sharing by utilizing the optimum characteristics ofeach means of transportation is necessary to reduce the environmental burdencaused by the entire sector.

[Name of the
Savings
technology/solution]

Consumption
if oldtechnologies
are sustained(BAU)
Consumption
after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures

Baseline
2007
100

Net saving
Cost (Investment, operation& maintenance, fuel)
Cost Per PJ saved
GHG reduction Emission if
oldpotential
technologies
are sustained
and withcurrent trends(BAU)
Emission after
implementing
newtechnology
and measures
T otalReduction
Cost of GHG reduction

100

Climate plan
2015
90

2030
85

2050
80

80

60

40

10
100

25
110

40
120

_

_

_

90

85

80

80

60

40

10

25

40

100

110

120

Advanced Nuclear Power Generation● Outline of technology
Nuclear power has excellent supply stability, and it emits no carbon dioxide inits generation process. It is currently the only clean base load energy sources inJapan. It is a source of energy that can address both carbon dioxide emissions
reductions and economic development since it is capable of stably supplying
electrical power necessary for economic development at a relatively low cost.
It is necessary to improve domestic and international mainstream light-water
reactor application technologies and to develop advanced nuclear power
generation technologies such as the innovative fast reactors through 2050. Morespecifically, the matters to be addressed include technology development for the
next-generation of light-water reactors to improve safety, economic efficiency,
and reliability drastically; fast reactor cycle technology to improve the efficiencyof the uranium resource utilization considerably; and the development of small
and medium reactors in compact sizes to address power demands in developing
nations and islands states.
● Technology development roadmap
Japan has successively constructed light-water reactors, and it currently has
55 light-water reactor units with nuclear power providing about 30% of Japan’s
total generation. The light-water reactions have a considerably lower frequency
of unplanned stops compared to those reactors in other nations. We thus havethe world’s top-level technology, human resources, and industry size in all
aspects, from technology development to design, production, construction andoperation. On the other hand, our nuclear reactor manufacturers have been slow
to enter the international market, and international recognition of the nuclear
reactors we have developed is low. In addition, there is little standardization ofrectors because nuclear power plants have been individually designed andconstructed fro each site to address the individual demands of the domestic
utility companies.
While drastic expansion in the international market is expected, the nuclear
reactor manufacturers in the U.S., France and Russia have been actively
expanding their business so that they can participate in new construction
markets over the world with support from their respective governments. The

nuclear reactor manufacturer in Korea is competitive with certain components.
China is also developing its own reactors based on technologies introduced fromother countries. In such circumstances, Japan needs to maintain and improve its
level of technological development with the government’s assistance through its
investment in research fields with high investment risks and large ripple effects.
To address the domestic needs for the replacement of reactors expectedaround 2030, we will promote the development of next-generation light-reactor
application technology to drastically improve safety, economic efficiency,
reliability while utilizing the achievements that our light-water reactor
development programs and operations have yielded so far. Specifically,
technologies to reduce the generation of spent nuclear fuel and to address
seismic isolation will be developed. Meanwhile, cooperation between thegovernment and the private sector will be necessary to address the developmentof innovative technologies that may become the domestic and global standard
with international standardization while there is a global trend of re-recognition of
the use of nuclear power and an increase in international cooperation on theissue.
Furthermore, we will promote the development of fast reactor cycle technology
to improve the efficiency of uranium utilization drastically and reduce radioactive
waste substantially, with an objective to build a demonstration reactor and a
related cycle facility by 2025 and commercialization of the technology before
2050. It is important to seek to obtain a position as a global standard reactor
through multilateral or bilateral forums for cooperation such as GNEP (Global
Nuclear Energy Partnership and GIF (Generation IV International Forum) withthis research and development.
Moreover, the development of small and medium reactors to address theneeds of developing nations and island states will be promoted in order toexpand our technology into an international market different from that of ourlarge next-generation light-water reactors. Specifically, we will promote thedevelopment of innovative basic technologies while advancing both theinternational expansion of our nuclear industry and international cooperation
under the framework of GNEP and other organizations. This will utilize ourexperience and skills to improve the economics of reactors with drastic size
reductions and maintenance cost reductions.

Energy Saving through Emulation of Low-friction Biological Joints

Bioengineering Division
1. OverviewThe fields covered by the Bioengineering Division are extremely broad-ranging, and it would
currently be difficult to provide a general overview of its technologies development effort orto present and discuss their key parameters. Therefore, we shall focus on biomimetics as adevelopment field that shows the overall effort. Biomimetics is devoted to achieving an
understanding of biological principles and mechanisms and then applying them to thedevelopment of technological processes, materials, and designs. This report focuses on the“Lubrication Problem” and in particular, the achievement of energy savings throughemulation of the low-friction joints prevalent in natural life forms.
In 1966, H.P.Jost who had made a significant contribution to the edifice of knowledge of“Tribology”; the science and technology of interacting surfaces in relative motion and of
related subject and practices, reported the broad economic effect of the Lubrication Problem(Jost report). The economic impact of the Lubrication Problem in Japan has been also
estimated by the Technical Research Institute (TRI) of the Japan Society for Promotion of
Machine Industry (JSPMI) to account for 3% of the Japanese Gross Domestic Product(GDP), or approximately 15.5 trillion yen in fiscal 2007. (The TRI report described the effectin terms of Gross National Product (GNP), but it has been converted to a GDP base here inview of the trend toward increasing globalization.)

2. Social and technological needs and technological tasks
There are more than 500 million cars on the road worldwide, and losses due to friction andheat account for two-thirds of their fuel consumption. Estimates indicate that if the annual
fuel consumption of these cars could be reduced by 10% by reducing friction, the conservedenergy would be sufficient to provide electric power for all households in Japan for a year or
more.
The automotive industry has made progress in reducing fuel consumption throughimprovements in engine, transmission, and clutch efficiency. However, breakthroughs that
go well beyond present technologies will be necessary for any approach to the ultimate goalof “zero (motive) friction/zero wear” in their sliding components.
Reduction of energy consumption through reduction of friction does not represent the fulleconomic effect of improvements in lubrication technology. As reported by Jost, it accounts
for only about 14% of the total economic effect. The largest gain, representing some 50% of
the total economic effect, is the result of reduced component wear and related maintenanceand replacement costs. This is followed by the reduction of consequential losses due tomalfunction, which represent about 25% of the total.

3. Possible mechanisms for enhancement of key parameters
Bearings are one of the mechanical components most intimately related to the Lubrication
Problem. They may be broadly classified as either plain (slide) bearings or rolling (ball orroller) bearings. Unless accompanied by a pressurized lubricant supply system, plain
bearings are prone to lubricant film rupture during low speed operation, which inevitably
leads to high friction and high wear. Their performance improves during high speed
operation, but shear resistance of lubricant increases and the energy loss becomes a matterof concern. For rolling bearings, on the other hand, the level of standardization and mass
production is one of the most advanced among mechanical components, and theirperformance at low operating speeds is excellent. During high-speed operation, however,limitations arise due to centrifugal forces on their rotating bodies and their retainer
lubrication.
Biological joints in the human body are constantly exposed to severe fluctuations in load,

sliding speed and direction, and motive friction. Despite this, they exhibit low friction (f <0.001) and low wear (service life: more than 70 years) due to the superior complex ofeffective interactive lubrication systems throughout the range from boundary to fluid
lubrication regions. Joint cartilage, composed of collagen fibers, forms bearings with aporous structure that is low in elastic modulus (<10 MPa) and contains lubricants composedof proteoglycans (sugar-protein complex). When bearings come into direct mutual contact in
the boundary lubrication regions, the bearing surfaces deform and simultaneously exude
these lubricants, thus moderating the state of lubrication. In the mixed lubrication regions,the low elastic modulus bearing surfaces promotes the rapid generation of a lubricating film.
In the full-fluid lubrication region, the synovial fluid (natural joint lubricating fluid), with its
non-Newtonian nature, behaves as a low-viscosity fluid under high shear, minimizing theshear resistance of the lubricant film and thus reducing energy loss.
The development and introduction of lubricating systems with a performance matchingthat of biological joints will require the development of new materials and other advances,and practical implementation is not expected before 2020 at the earliest. Furthermore, if thereplacement of conventional lubricating systems is limited to service environments similar to
those of biological joints, they may be expected to account for about 2% of the Lubrication
Problem. Improvements to conventional lubricating systems by incorporating thepossibilities suggested by biological joints and for which investigations can already beinitiated, such as mechanisms for exudation of lubricating fluids from bearing surfaces andthe use of non-Newtonian flow mechanisms in lubricating oils, may be expected to accountfor a further 2%. Derivative technologies may account for another 3%. In total, then,energy-saving technology resulting from emulation of low-friction biological joints may
ultimately represent a contribution of 7% to resolution of the Lubrication Problem. Thisequates to about one trillion yen when calculated on the basis of the Japanese GDP in fiscal
2007.

4. Outlook on future social aspects
Living bodies are constructed primarily from organic compounds containing large amountsof water. If it becomes possible to mimic their material composition, it will eliminate therequirement for mineral lubricating liquids and it will also mimic their promotion of thedecomposition of product components and thus emulate their low environmental burden.
Internal combustion engines, the traditional power source for automobiles, inherently
require careful consideration of heat resistance in the development of their lubrication
components. With the adoption of fuel cells or other power sources, areas that are free fromheat resistance problems will expand, and the number of areas in which lubrication systems
emulating living bodies can be utilized can be expected to increase.
Adoption of electrical drive systems may also be expected to lead to simplification of
mechanical components, elimination of cams, tappets, crankshafts, gear pumps, and othercomponents requiring oil-based lubricating liquids, as well as an expansion of the areas
amenable to the utilization of water-based lubricating liquids. All of this will present newopportunities for taking advantage of the secondary effects of lubricating systems thatemulate those of living bodies, such as their biodegradability and their low environmental
burden in disposal and other phases.
In the manufacture of parts and components, the cutting, milling, pressing, rolling, andother processes are all affected by the Lubrication Problem. This is another field in whichfavorable conditions are emerging for development of lubrication systems emulating thoseof living bodies, and the development of the seeds for derivative technologies.