Publisher’s Note

How Will We Respond to the Changes in theGeopolitical Landscape After the Ukrainian Crisis?
By Masakazu Toyoda
The Ukrainian crisis showed that the international peace of the Pax
Americana era is completely gone. Are we witnessing a complete
turnaround from a rules-oriented to a power-oriented international
order? Should a new one be conceived? How should Japan respondto this change in the geopolitical landscape? How can Japan
contribute to the creation of a new international order?
Japan has at least four areas of action to consider. They range fromreforming the UN, building new allies/group, strengthening its
economic power, and also strengthening its defense capabilities.
First. Japan must get involved in the reform of the United Nations(UN) because its most important function which is to “maintaininternational peace and security” with preventive diplomacy,
mediation, and peacekeeping has eroded. During the Ukrainian crisis,
the UN Security Council became dysfunctional and could not reach aconsensus to act against one of its members that was not abiding bythe international law. If the country that breaks the international rules
is also a member of the Security Council, with veto power, theUnited Nations cannot continue to function. How can the UN bereformed to avoid such possibility? Was it unconceivable from thebeginning that none of the Security Council members would ever
initiate such unacceptable actions? It is Japanʼs role to makeproposals regarding the reform of the UN.
Second. Japan should support the building of a new kind of allies/
group, other than the existing grouping of the G7, G20, APEC, andEast Asia Summit. Those existing groups can be consideredinadequate or ill-equipped in dealing with the aftermaths of theUkrainian Crisis. The G20 is the most representative of the views ofa wide range of countries but because it includes Russia, it is not acohesive body of opinion to discuss the Ukrainian crisis. Russia isalso a member of the East Asia Summit and of the Asian Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC), with the same influence regarding
Ukraine. The G7, on the other hand, is a grouping of developed
countries which does not include Russia. Unfortunately, the G7 isinadequate to incorporate or represent the views of emerging
countries. Japan is an active member of all these importantframeworks and can make valuable contributions. So, what can Japan
do? It should understand the aspirations of both the developed andemerging countries and work to help bridge the existing gap between
them while forging acceptable consensus.
It is Japanʼs role to support the building of new allies/group thatcan be productive. In that regard, a few alliances with an eye on
China have recently been formed. These include the US-led QUAD
(Japan-US-Australia-India Summit), the AUKUS (Australia-UK-USAgreement), and the IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework). In2006, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed a dialogue of four headsof states, which was the trigger for QUAD and in March 2021, at theurging of President Biden, its first summit meeting took place online.
AUKUS was announced by the United States, the United Kingdom,and Australia in an online joint press conference in September 2021.
It was an agreement that the United States and the United Kingdom
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will not only cooperate with Australia in the construction of nuclear
submarines, but it also included collaboration in cyber, artificial
intelligence, and military affairs. Japanʼs participation in AUKUS
seems to be under consideration. The IPEF was convened in a hybrid
format in May 2022. Although these frameworks are still in theirinfancy, they are international frameworks that build alliances in theIndo-Pacific. Japanʼs role in their future development is expected tobe significant in order to narrow the gap with its neighboring country,
China
The other allies/group building framework could be the Western
Pacific Union (WPU), advocated by Dr. Shinichi Kitaoka, former
President of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) . TheWPU is a “soft democratic union” of Japan, Southeast Asian
countries, Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific Island countries. Itdoes not include the United States nor China. Like the European
Union (EU), it aims to secure a voice that would not be sufficient on
its own.
The third area of actions is to strengthen the economic power ofJapan. No matter how solid the international framework may be andno matter how many friends Japan may make, no country will listen
to Japan if Japanʼs own economic strength is declining. It is essentialfor Japan to maintain its own international competitiveness. Without
getting into any details, specific measures to achieve competitivenessare summarized in the Foundationʼs 13 recommendations for an“evolutionary industrial policy”. In a nutshell, in addition toaccelerating digitalization and through deregulation, the reportstresses the importance of reviewing the lifetime employment andseniority systems that supported Japanʼs rapid postwar growth that
followed World War II.
The fourth area of actions is the strengthening of Japanʼs defense
capabilities. Although Japan has grown since the end of WWII under
the peace of a Pacifist Constitution, it is undeniable that Japan has
been protected by the military power of the United States, including
its arsenal of nuclear weapons. When the U.S. stopped being “the”
superpower and became one of the big powers, it abandoned its roleas the worldʼs policeman. Japan is very grateful for the U.S. efforts todate, but it is now inevitable that it must strengthen its own defense
capabilities in the future. Therefore, doubling the defense budget andenhancing defense capabilities, including an enemy base attack
capability, are seriously being considered. As Asia becomesincreasingly unstable amid the confrontation between the U.S. andChina, the Japanese people need to have a strong awareness that theymust first protect themselves.
Japanʼs efforts in these four areas should play a major role increating a new international order in a geopolitically destabilizedworld.
Masakazu Toyoda is chairman and CEO of the Japan Economic Foundation(JEF). He previously served as chairman and CEO of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan, after having been vice minister for International Affairs at theMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2023

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