‫ە‬Message from the Director-General

National land and infrastructure in a timeof low birth rates, aging and declining
population
NISHIKAWA Kazuhiro , Director-General,
National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management(Keywords) National land management, social infrastructure, aging, population shrinkage
1. Population problems as a condition for national
land management
 When considering the management of national landand infrastructure, it is essential that we keep abreast ofchanges in various conditions in the background toprepare related technological policy.
However, they have been rapid of late, often moving
into uncharted territory.
For example, the borderless international economy andrapid expansion of newly emerging countries haveinvalidated many conventional economic theories
which were established regarding domestic matters.
The primary target of NILIM’s research is to decide
how we should manage national land and social
infrastructure. Therefore I think that addressing not
only international economic trends and long-termclimate change but also rapid aging and population
shrinkage are some of the major challenges we arefacing. Here, I would like to consider trends in Japan’s
population shrinkage and what they signify, as well as
stating my personal views on two or three remedialmeasures.
2. Views on demographics
 On February 25th, the Statistics Bureau of theMinistry of Internal Affairs and Communications
published its preliminary report on the 2010 NationalCensus. In it, the population of Japan was said to havegrown slightly by 288,000 or 0.2% compared to theprevious survey in 2005. But I think a closer scrutiny
will prove that the population is falling. According tothe National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research, Japan’s population peaked in 2007 and isexpected to fall below 100 million (around 80% oftoday’s figure) four decades later in 2050. Judging
from this prediction, the simple impression might bethat Japan’s population will gradually turn to a decline
from now on.
 However, a recent bestseller1) asserts that Japan’s
economic growth is related not to the total population
but closely to the working population (people aged15-64), as they are the main players in personal
consumption, which accounts for 60% of GDP. The
book also presents the shocking truth that thispopulation in fact peaked in 1995 and has alreadydecreased by around 9%. By 2050, moreover, it will
have fallen to less than 50 million, a decline of 45%
compared to the peak of 87 million. This can beinterpreted as showing that, to maintain the nation’svitality, we need powerful economic policies that canreverse the tide of decline in the working population.
In this paper, I focus on the “advanced elderly” (thoseaged 75 or over), who account for the majority ofpersonal assets among those over the pensionable age(65), with the prediction that their number willapproach 24 million by 2050. While most people aged
75 or over are assumed to be in an age cohort requiringsupport in a variety of situations, this means that there
will be no choice but for the rapidly declining working
population (i.e. active generations) to support therapidly increasing advanced elderly generation while
attempting to sustain and energize the national vitality,
particularly economically. This means, in turn, that weneed to implement national land management designed
to rebuild social infrastructure in ways this requires.
3. Scope of maintaining and energizing nationalvitality
To maintain high vitality under the shrinking
population, it will be necessary to make theinfrastructure produce added value efficiently in an
effective state for users at all times. To this end, I would
like to propose that the completion of expressways,
currently under development, be pushed forward tokeep them functioning as road networks. By so doing,
we should establish a globally unique roadinfrastructure that harnesses leading-edge technology
in Japan2).
 There is a considerable expectation that electricvehicles (EV) can help to usher in a low-carbon society,with zero emissions (although depending on the power
generation method). Recharging facilities are therefore
already being built, and EVs are expected to be diffused
rapidly. There are still many issues to be tackled for
EVs to travel long distances; for example,
high-performance batteries are expensive and limitedin their capacity, and in addition, the recharging
process is time-consuming. The batteries are also heavy,
and this will cause difficulties in diffusing them for use
in cargo haulage.
 Nevertheless, the technology for supplying electricenergy to moving EV from roads already exists as aninfrastructure. There are several different technologies
for non-contact transmission of electric energy, and if
the method known as electromagnetic resonance (notinduction) is used, it will be possible to supply energy‫ە‬Message from the Director-General
to vehicles some meters away by consecutivelyaligning coils on the road surface or in the median strip.
In a case where energy is supplied from the road on
expressways and vehicles on ordinary roads are
powered by batteries, the EV systems will be diffuseddramatically.
Systems of charging fees for the power consumed
have already been developed to some extent, having
been produced in conjunction with ITS technology. If
these are combined with truck platooning technology
for trucks, high-precision GPS using quasi-zenithsatellites, and others, automatic transit of freight
haulage vehicles might no longer be a pipe dream.
While a contribution in environmental terms is assured,
there is also potential for wave effects, such as solving
manpower shortages in the distribution sector amid
population shrinkage, reducing long working hours,
and so on. Reducing costs in domestic haulage may
even lead to increasing their competitiveness innational activities.
4. Scope of Quality of Life (QOL)
The aging society also means a long-living society.
There is room for study, from the view of infrastructure,
concerning ways to ensure that a longer life can also bea happier life. Decisive factors in QOL are, for example,
whether or not a person can move about freely even in
old age. Considering that many of the advanced elderly
stop driving cars, it would be better for them to live
convenient to public transport services.
 Although much discussion has already been held on
the rationale of compact cities, it is not easy to present auniversal panacea, because cities all differ in theirscales and existing transport infrastructures. But
considering the simple maxim that “it should be theelderly who live in places where public transport
services are convenient”, society as a whole will be
expected to gradually move in such a desirable
direction.
 And if you were to give up the preconceived notionthat station plazas are places for busy shopping malls,
and remodel the vacant shops on shuttered streets into
old people’s homes or other welfare facilities, theprovision of public services would also be made more
efficient. Moreover, a population of station front
residents would make it easier for a certain level ofcommercial facilities, supermarket delivery services
and others to become established. And if community
buses and other local transport termini were establishedthere, it would certainly attract regular users. Setting up
nursery schools and other facilities at the same timemight also be expected to have synergistic effects onthese areas. Delivering such services in and aroundbuildings located at large stations is also possible using
the infrastructure.
5. Scope of mitigating natural disasters
 In readiness for natural disasters, emphasis has long
been placed on the concepts of self-help, mutual help

and public help. Until now, these have been keywords
for finely focused evacuation guidance, etc., at times ofnatural disasters. But when considering the sharp
decline in the working population as bearers of mutualhelp for the rapidly increasing advanced elderly, we
have to consider how we can reduce their burden. Thiskind of situation often pertains in mountainous regionsthat contain depopulated villages. While it is essential
for advanced elderly who require evacuation support tolive in places that are safe and easily accessed by
support services, and collectively if possible, to achievethis, efforts are surely needed to inform people that
reducing the burden of “mutual help” is an act that
leads to “self-help”.
6. Conclusion
 We will never understand the essential meaning of thepopulation shrinkage if we only consider totalpopulation. Most opinions on future population are theproduct of wishful thinking. However, the working age
population in, say, 15 years’ time will only be
augmented by younger people who have already beenborn, and has therefore already reached its peak value.
This means we have to think out various measures todeal with this matter, so our eyes must be firmly
focused on the facts.
Finally I hope we will not forget that the futurecomposition of our population not only consists oftarget recipients of welfare but is also a prerequisite forproposing policy.
(References)1) K. Motani: The true identity of deflation, Kadokawa One
Thema 21 Shinsho, 2010.62) K. Nishikawa: Expectation of the potential of roadinfrastructure in spreading the diffusion of the electric vehicle(EV), Japan Society of Civil Engineers website, Editorial
Committee page, 45th editorial (Feb. 2011 edition), (due forpublication in JSCE Journal April 2011)(http://committees.jsce.or.jp/editorial/no45-2)