NE ASmall Modular Reactors» A wave of near-term innovation in nuclear energy promises to revolutionise nuclear safety and economics
and open up new applications in hard-to-abate sectors» Small modular reactor (SMR) designs under development offer different value propositions, with avariety of sizes and temperatures intended for different applications» SMR reactors are expected to be commercialised within the next decade» A rapid SMR uptake could help avoid 15 Gt of carbon emissions by 2050

SMRs are reinventing nuclear energy

Figure 1: Near-term SMRs could decarbonise heavy
industries with combined heat and power

Small

Output temperature (oC)SMRs are smaller, both in terms of power output and physicalsize, than conventional gigawatt-scale nuclear reactors. SMRs
are nuclear reactors with power output less than 300 megawatts
electric (MWe), with some as small as 1-10 MWe.

1 600
Steel, glass, ceramic, cement

1 400

Modular
SMRs are designed for modular manufacturing, factory
production, portability, and scalable deployment.

SMRs use nuclear fission reactions to create heat that can beused directly, or to generate electricity.

SafetySMR designs build on lessons learnt from over 60 years ofexperience in the nuclear energy sector to enhance safety
and improve flexibility. Many SMR designs incorporate theconcept of passive safety, meaning they do not require active
interventions or backup power to safely shut down.

Flexibility
SMRs are designed to integrate into energy systems, offeringmuch needed flexibility to enable high shares of variable
renewable energy.

Output temperature (oC)

Reactors

1 200

1 000
EM2800

KairosUSNC600© OECD 2021

IMSR

Chemicals, ammonia, refineries

ARC-100
400

Soda ashNuScale
Akademik Lomonosov

NuwardUK SMR

BWRX-300

200Paper0050100

150200250300

350400450500Power output (MWe)Fuel cycle
Some SMR designs seek to recycle waste streams fromexisting reactors to produce new useful fuel and minimise
waste volumes requiring long-term management and disposal.

Aluminium, steam methane reforming
Westinghouse
lead fast reactor
Moltex

HTR-PM

U-battery Xe-100

High temperature reactors
Gas fast reactors

Liquid metal fast reactors
Floating light water reactors

Molten salt reactors
Light water reactors-SMRs

Source: NEA, forthcoming.

Page 1Competition between designs is fierce as the first SMRs areexpected to be commercially deployed within five to ten years.

450
400350300
250200150
100500Range of sizes and temperatures
Some SMRs are based on existing commercially deployedtechnologies, while others are based on advanced designconcepts, offering a range of sizes – from 1 to 300 MWe – and arange of temperatures – from 285°C to more than 850°C.

SMRs are positioned to open up new markets
and applications for deep decarbonisation

2020

20252030

2035

2040

2045

504540353025201510502050

Cumulative emissions avoided (GtCO2)

Figure 2: SMR installed capacity and cumulativeemissions avoided

Installed capacity (GWe)

The first SMR demonstration units are being
deployed today

Small modular reactor market outlook up to 2035
Small modular reactor market extrapolation post-2035
Cumulative emissions avoided

On grid
Larger SMRs (around 200-300 MWe) are designed primarily foron-grid power generation. This size is especially well suited for
replacing coal power plants.

Source: NEA, forthcoming.
Note: It is assumed that nuclear power (12 g CO2eq/kWh) is displaced bygas with a carbon footprint of 490 g CO 2eq/kWh (Bruckner, 2014). SMR2035 market outlook based on NEA (2016). Extrapolation post-2035 basedon SMR build rate envisaged by McKinsey & Company (2018) “Nuclear deepdecarbonization scenario”. By 2050, 25% of nuclear reactors are used fornuclear heat applications, also displacing gas. By 2050, nuclear reactors
operate with a 90% availability factors with 60% of the power used to supplyelectricity and 30% to supply hydrogen. Hydrogen produced with nuclear
power will displace steam methane reforming (10 kg CO2 per kg of H2).

Off grid
Smaller SMRs could create an alternative to diesel generation inremote communities and at mining sites. SMRs could be used
to provide power as well as heat for various purposes such as
district heating or mine shaft heating.

Heat
Many SMR designs will operate at higher temperatures, creating
opportunities for the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors.
High-temperature SMRs could create the first real non-emittingalternative to fossil fuel cogeneration by offering combined heatand power solutions for industrial customers.

100Marine shipping
SMRs could provide a non-emitting alternative for merchantshipping.

Near-term deployment of SMRs could avoid
15 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions
between 2020 and 2050
Forthcoming NEA analysis will identify the potential contributionof nuclear energy to clean energy capacity and emission
reductions between 2020 and 2050, taking into consideration
the potential contributions from power and non-power
applications of nuclear technologies.
The NEA estimates that the global SMR market could reach21 gigawatts by 2035. A rapid increase in build rate can beenvisaged with construction between 50 and 150 gigawatts
per year. Assuming a build rate that reaches 75 gigawatts peryear by 2050, up to 375 gigawatts of installed capacity would
be built over the next three decades. This would translate into
avoiding 15 gigatonnes of cumulative CO2 emissions.
Taken together, the contributions of SMRs, along with long-term
operation, new builds of existing large-scale nuclear technologies,
nuclear hybrid energy and hydrogen systems begin to reveal
the full extent of the potential for nuclear energy and nuclear
innovations to play a significant and growing role in pathways
to net-zero by 2050. NEA projections forecast that if all options
are implemented, some 87 gigatonnes of cumulative emissions
between 2020 and 2050 will be averted, the equivalent of morethan two years of global carbon emissions at 2020 levels and acritical contribution towards meeting Paris Agreement targets.

© OECD 2021

Installed capacity (GWe)

1 4009080

1 20070

1 000608005040600

30400

20200

10202020252030

2035

2040

204502050

Cumulative emissions avoided
IPCC 1.5°C scenarios (2050 average) = 1 160 GW nuclear
capacity (based on the average of IPCC 1.5°C scenarios)
Ambitious projections
Small modular reactors (post-2035 market extrapolation)
Large-scale new builds (planned)Long-term operation (to 80 years)
Conservative projections
Small modular reactors (2035 market outlook)
Large-scale new builds (under construction)
Long-term operation (planned)
Source: NEA, forthcoming.

Further reading
NEA (forthcoming), Meeting Climate Change Targets: Projecting
the Potential Role of Nuclear Energy, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Page 2

Cumulative CO2 emissions avoided (GtCO2)

Figure 3: Full potential of nuclear contributions
to net-zero