●A Case of Utilizing Results

Model Development to forecast port cargo volumes related
to the Basic Policy for Ports
WATANABE Tomihiro, HeadIYAMA, Shigeru, Senior Researcher
Port and Harbor Department, Port Systems Division(Key words) Basic Policy, port cargo, demand forecast, estimation model
1. Introduction
Regarding future plans for ports in Japan, under thePorts and Harbors Act, port managers enact port plans,
but the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport andTourism has enacted the “Basic Policy for theDevelopment, Use and Maintenance of Ports andHarbors and Development of Sea Routes Designatedto be Developed and Maintained” (below called,“Basic Policy”) as a guideline which must be followed
to enact a port plan. It presents prospects for portcargo volumes and container cargo volumes
throughout Japan for the next 10 to 15 years, andprospects for port cargo volumes formerly revised in
the autumn of 2004 were revised again in September
2011. A prediction model developed by the NILIM
was used for this calculation. An outline of this model
follows.
2. Outline of the Export/Import Port Cargo
Volume Estimation ModelThe Export/Import Port Cargo Volume Estimation
Model is a model which is divided into the Value ofTrade Prediction Block, which estimates the value of
trade with major countries and regions of the world,
beginning with Japan, and the Port Cargo Volume
Calculation Block, which calculates port cargovolumes and container cargo volumes based on thevalue of trade which has been estimated, with, as its
purpose, estimating the port cargo volume and thecontainer cargo volume shipped from or to Japan(see Fig. 1).
The Value of Trade Prediction Block consists of the[1] Manufactured product price prediction sub-modelthat predicts future manufactured product prices foreach country or region considering future change ofindustrial structure, [2] Trade coefficient prediction
sub-model that estimates how much of themanufactured goods which each industry in eachcountry or region needs will be procured from whichcountry or region, and [3] Export/import value
prediction sub-model that predicts future value oftrade with each country or region, and value of tradeby marine transport based on the future final demandby each country or industry. And the Import/ExportPort Cargo Volume Calculation Block calculates theport cargo volume and container cargo volume basedon value of marine trade, and calculates the future port
cargo volume and container cargo volume which will
be shipped to or from Japan in the future.
Export/Import Port Cargo Volume Estimation Model (Predicts Cargo Volume for all Ports in Japan)

Premises etc.

Social economic frame(GDP, population, FTA, structure of industry,exchange rates etc.)

Value of Trade Prediction Block

Development of port policies(Strategic International Container
port, etc.)

Objective countries or regions, industrial
category[1] Manufactured product price prediction sub-model: predicts manufactured product prices consideringchange of industrial structure by product, capital and labor etc. prices in each country[2] Trade coefficient prediction sub-model: calculates purchased goods price with transport cost andcustoms tax added to manufactured product price considering exchange rates and predicts ratio of countries
or regions of procurement by product (trade coefficient).
[3] Export/import value prediction sub-model: predicts value of trade between countries and regions
according to the future final demand or trade coefficient based upon the GDP growth rate of each country orregion.
Value of trade between countries and regions by industry(marine/air transport)

Import/export port cargo volume calculation block
Import/export port cargo volume (containers, bulk)
Import/export container cargo volume, estimationof number of containers

1. Weight – value conversion rate
2. Price/quantity (tons) conversion rate
3. Containerization rate/tons/TEU
4. Empty container rate

Port cargo volume/container cargo volume shipped from/to Japan

Domestic port selection model for international
container cargoes (Container cargo volume
estimation model by major port)

Transshipped container cargo calculation model• Predicts quantity of transshipped containercargoes in Japanese ports

Volume of container cargo handled by major port in Japan

Figure 1. Configuration of the Export/Import PortCargo Volume Estimation Model
3. Application of the Development Model to the
Basic Policy
To estimate the predicted port cargo volumes in the
Basic Policy which was revised in September 2011
based on the above Export/Import Port Cargo Volume
Estimation Model, export-import port cargo volumeand foreign trade container cargo volume for 2020 and2025 were estimated and applied in accordance withvarious scenario settings including future GDP,
exchange rates etc. set by the Ports and Harbors
Bureau. And to study prospects for port cargo volumesof the Basic Policy, transshipped containers fromoverseas which were transshipped in a port in Japan
entered with dotted lines in Figure 1 were added at thesame time as container cargo volume was predicted bymajor port in Japan to calculate the future container
cargo volume by major port.

●A Case of Utilizing Results[Reference]
・ NILIM Report No. 49, Model Development onEstimating Import and Export Port Cargo Volume
considering the International Trading andIndustrial Structure, December 2011・ Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport andTourism; Basic Policy for the Development, Useand Maintenance of Ports and Harbors andDevelopment of Sea Routes Designated to be
Developed and Maintained, September 2011.