COVERLEAD

Geopolitics in 2022
By Naoyuki Haraoka

Geopolitics determines the prospects for theworld economy. The US-China decoupling has
developed into a conflict between democracy andauthoritarianism, and consequently global supply
chains now face a risk of disruption. However, it ismeanwhile true that the economy also seriously
impacts geopolitics. The expansion of inequalities
provokes social divides among many countries
and this social incoherence can destabilize acountry’s politics and eventually lead to a global
geopolitical crisis. In our world today, politics andthe economy are closely interconnected and so weneed to understand political economy inaddressing any policy issue. We look at theseissues here in our cover story in such a holisticmanner.
We start with an interview with Prof. Adam
Tooze, a distinguished historian at Columbia
University, who says capitalism has been at aturning point since the financial crisis in 2008 andthis trend, exacerbated by the pandemic, is asource of the geopolitical crisis today. Democracy
and capitalism are the locomotives of peace andprosperity, but when the basis of capitalism iseroded by widening inequalities, democracy facesa challenge. Today’s geopolitical challenges can beseen in this context. They are of a structural
nature, and should thus be analyzed from along-term perspective, which historians are wellplaced to do.
Prof. Yasushi Watanabe, an expert on American
2 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

politics and society, takes a critical look at
democracy in the United States in an interview
with Japan SPOTLIGHT, while Dr. Sota Kato, oneof our Editorial Committee members, provides
material on political trends in developed nations.
On the arguments surrounding the advantages anddisadvantages of democracy and authoritarianism,
Prof. Masaaki Higashijima’s article stresses theutility of democracy even during the pandemic,
which authoritarian regimes have reputedly dealt
with better than democratic systems.
We have highlights of specific geopoliticalchallenges, such as Taiwan being under the threatof war against China discussed by Dr. Yasuhiro
Matsuda, and two hot topics in the US –cybersecurity and Afghanistan – are introduced byMr. Robert Shields and Mr. Peter E. Paraschos
respectively. On the US-China “cold war”, Prof.
Shin Chang’s article suggests that US sanctions
against Chinese companies would not work wellunder globalization, as the two nations’ economic
interdependency could not be decoupled by any
artificial measures. Prof. Toshifumi Kokubun,
meanwhile, emphasizes in his article that such a“cold war” could be favorable for economic
security for businesses, as continued efforts forsophisticated rule-making on high-technology
products would work well in avoiding a hot war.

https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

COVERLEAD(Brief Introductions)
COVER STORY 1
Interview with Adam Tooze, Kathryn & Shelby Cullom Davis
Professor of History, Department of History, Columbia
University

An Historian’s Views on Present Geopolitics &Geoeconomics
By Japan SPOTLIGHT
Rule-making efforts for a more cohesive global
regime would be most useful in resolving theconflict between democratic systems andauthoritarian regimes from a long-term
perspective.
COVER STORY 2
Interview with Dr. Yasushi Watanabe, Professor of the Faculty ofEnvironment & Information Studies (Shonan Fujisawa), KeioUniversityWhat Is Caucasian Nationalism, a Key Feature ofAmerican Politics?
By Japan SPOTLIGHT
Millennials could save the world from risingnationalism in due course. They understand betterthe merits of globalization than any older
generation.

COVER STORY 3
Post-Coronavirus Populism & Japanese Politics(Part 1)
By Sota KatoAny political movement creating its own “enemies”
and attacking them with emotion will not easily
disappear these days, and Japan is no exception.
His argument continues in the next issue.
COVER STORY 4
Does Democracy Need Renewal?
Socio-Economic Consequences of DemocraticPolitics
By Masaaki Higashijima
Though democracy is an “unfinished revolution” inneed of incessant renewal, it has led us to a moredesirable society and economy.
COVER STORY 5
Will a Taiwan Emergency Happen? Analyzing theChallenges Facing China
By Yasuhiro Matsuda
The possibility of a Taiwan-China war is slim, but
we are in the midst of long-term strategiccompetition between the US and China. If we do
not respond properly, tragedy awaits.

Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

3

COVERLEAD

COVER STORY 6
Cybersecurity in the Early Days of the Biden
Administration
By Robert Shields

COVER STORY 9
Management that Embodies Sophisticated Rules& Democracy as Keys to Economic Security
By Toshifumi Kokubun

It is not known whether the Biden administration’s
cybersecurity policies will be successful or not.
But as the cyber threat landscape continuously
evolves, Biden must quickly adapt his policy
approaches to address it.

It is necessary for Japanese businesses to earn
profits in prolonging the US-China “cold war” bydeveloping sophisticated rules on competition
between democratic systems and authoritarianregimes.

COVER STORY 7
Afghanistan: Endless Chaos & the Threat toGlobal Order
By Peter E. Paraschos
A significant degree of pessimism attaches to thegeneral outlook for the stability of Afghanistan, as
the Taliban’s ability to stabilize the country isviewed with skepticism.
COVER STORY 8
High-Tech Industrialization of the Chinese
Manufacturing Industry & the Future Direction ofthe US-China Cold War
By Shin Chang
An economically interdependent relationship has
the power to deter military conflict, and thus it isexpected that the US-China “cold war” will not leadto a military conflict in the short term.
4 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

Naoyuki Haraoka is editor-in-chief of Japan SPOTLIGHT & executive
managing director of the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF).