●Research Trends and Results

Analysis of international air passenger flow in Asiaand study of improvement of air travel demandpredictions
Airport Department
INOUE Gaku, Senior Researcher
Airport Department, Airport Planning Division
NIU Kiyoteru, Head(Key words) International air passenger transport, air travel demand predictions, OFOD statistics, quantitative timeseries analysis
1. Introduction
The International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO)
predicts that between 2005 and 2025, air passenger
volume in the Asia-Pacific Region will approximately
triple (annual average + 5.8%). Such an abrupt changeof the air travel market will have a big impact on
Japan’s aviation and airport policies. There is no air
travel demand prediction method that expressly
incorporates such a changing trend. So (1) the flow ofinternational air passengers in Asia was organized andanalyzed, and at the same time, (2) the applicability ofthe quantitative time series analysis method wasstudied as part as basic research to improve air travel
demand predictions.
2. Flow of international air passengers in Asia
Between 2000 and 2008, the basic structure ofinternational air route network in Asia did not change,
but overall the density of the route network was seen
to increase. It confirmed that the density of thenetwork of routes originating in China or Korea inparticular increased remarkably (see Figure on right).
Cluster analysis etc. has quantitatively shown thatmany of routes on which demand has increased
remarkably originate in China, India, Vietnam, andMongolia, which have seen spectacular economic
growth in recent years.
3. Applicability of quantitative time series analysis
methods to the prediction of air travel demand
The quantitative time series analysis method, whichpermits analysis based on data which can be obtained
relatively easily, is already applied in a wide range offields such as economics and finance. Of these, theapplicability of an autoregressive moving averagemodel (SARIMA) which can consider seasonal
fluctuations, to predicting air travel demand wasstudied, reaching the following conclusions.

2000

2008

Notes:
Thickest lines: 1 million passengers/year or more
Thick lines: 500,000 passengers/year or moreThin line: 10,000 passengers/year or more

Figure. Changes of the International Air RouteNetwork in Asia (Korea)(1) A time series analysis method can be effective forshort term predictions (about 5 years) of domestic orinternational air travel passenger demand, which canbe analyzed by a differential series.
(2) For a long-term prediction based on a prediction
period of 5 to 10 years or longer, the hypothesized
section prediction is broad and it is difficult to directly
apply this method at the present time.
4. Conclusion
Based on recently organized time series data andknowledge obtained, we wish to specify all factors
which will have a great impact on the international airtravel market in the future, and clarify the impact on
Japan’s international air travel passenger and cargoflows. And a study will be performed of a model
which can consider changes in the state of demandprediction methods to have a great impact on air travel
demand trends.
[Reference]
Technical Note of National Institute for Land andInfrastructure Management, Nos. 643 and 652.