Special Interview 2Interview with Nejc Jus, Head of Research, the World Travel and Tourism Council

International Tourism Will Be Backin 2022
By Japan SPOTLIGHT
Tourism is one of the most important sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. Whether it will return tonormal or not will be a key factor in any global economic recovery in 2022. Japan SPOTLIGHT held aninterview with Nejc Jus, the head of research at the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
(Interviewed on Nov. 11, 2021)

Introduction
JS: Could you briefly explain about

the World Travel and Tourism
Council, its history, mission andmain activities, and also yourrole?

research project that I look after is Travel andTourism’s economic impact research; datafrom this research is widely used bygovernments across the world, internationalorganizations, academia and also private
sector organizations.
I also look after economic impact researchon cities, and have also developed a numberof thought leadership papers, for example ondifferent segments of Travel and Tourism,
such as medical tourism, domestic tourism
and wildlife. I also look at youth employment
in Travel and Tourism, employment for
women, and many other topics of interest to
our sector.

Jus: The WTTC was established over 30 years
ago and its main goal is to promotesustainable growth in the Travel and Tourism
sector, working with governments andinternational institutions to create jobs, drive
exports and generate prosperity. All members
are chairs, presidents and CEOs of the world’s
leading private sector tourism businesses.
Membership at the moment currently
Pandemic’s Impact on the
Nejc Jus
includes the entire spectrum of the Travel andTourism Business
Tourism sector around the world, from airlines and airports to hotels
JS: I am curious about your analysis of the impact ofand hospitality groups, tour operators, retail, travel agents, online
the pandemic on the tourism industry overall, notdistributors, cruise lines, investment companies, insurance groups,
only travel agencies but also hotels, airlines andand others.
other aspects of the sector. I am also curious about
The WTTC’s core research – which we conduct in collaboration
your estimation of the impact of this negative shockwith our research partner Oxford Economics – quantifies the directon the tourism industry in terms of global GDP.
and total impact of Travel and Tourism on all economies in terms of
GDP and employment contribution. It has helped to raise awarenessJus: Travel and Tourism was one of the worst affected sectors, asof the economic contribution of our sector and continues to feature
you can imagine, in 2020 and continues to be so. Before theheavily in media and with governments across the world.
pandemic, our sector accounted for one in four of all new jobs
For over 30 years, our work has been fundamental in creating
created across the world. It also supported 10.6% of all jobs,
awareness of the value of Travel and Tourism. Not just as one of thereaching 334 million in 2019, and the sector also supported 10.4%
world’s largest economic sectors, but also with the local
of global GDP. So in 2019, that amounted to $9.2 trillion. Also,
communities that travelers enrich with their experiences. Our goal isinternational spending in 2019 amounted to $1.7 trillion, which wasfor the Travel and Tourism sector to be seamless, secure and safe,
6.8% of total exports and 27.4% of global services exports. So it
also inclusive and sustainable, while working toward greater private
made an extremely significant contribution to economies worldwide.
and public sector collaboration.
Then came the pandemic and huge losses across the world. The
I implement our research program to help companies andsector suffered a loss of almost $4.5 trillion in 2020. This means thatgovernments throughout the world to understand the importance of
the GDP contribution of Travel and Tourism dropped by 49.1%
the sector for socio-economic development and job creation. The key
42 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/

compared to 2019, and this of course was more significant than the
3.7% decline in global GDP in 2020. In terms of job losses, there
were 62 million losses in 2020, a drop of 18.5%, which left 272
million people across the sector employed globally in 2020,
compared to 334 million in 2019.
Domestic visitor spending decreased by 45%, whilst international
visitor spending decreased by 69.4%. Our latest projection was
issued in October, and says that the global economy is set to receivea modest 31% year-on-year increase from Travel and Tourism in
2021. This represents $1.4 trillion and is mainly driven by domestic
spending. International spending, on the other hand, is expected torise by only 9.3% this year, but will be followed by a stronger yearlyrise of nearly 94% in 2022 as the vaccination rollout continues, andas more countries become open again to international tourists.
JS: The negative impact in 2020 was enormous – notonly on those industries but also on GDP. In 2021,
the projection is still very significant in terms ofdamage but does seem to be decreasing.

Jus: Looking at Travel and Tourism GDP, in 2020 there was a 49.1%
decline. This year we are expecting to see an increase of nearly 31%
year on year, compared to 2020. However, when compared to 2019,
Travel and Tourism GDP is still expected to be 33% below 2019
levels this year.
JS: This suggests a V-shaped recovery in 2021. Whatefforts are being made by the tourism industry to
mitigate these negative impacts, and do you thinkthey are sustainable?

Jus: We could get a V-shaped recovery, but of course, this isdependent on a number of points. It is dependent on the speed of thevaccination rollout, on an equitable rollout, relaxing of restrictions,strong consumer spending, and strong economic growth as well –these are the factors that underpin our projections.
In terms of mitigation, what we have witnessed during the crisis isthat there has been quite significant government support in a
number of countries – a lot of businesses have taken advantage ofthese support schemes, including furlough schemes. Manybusinesses have taken out loans and deferred payments with morefavorable interest rates. With international tourism coming to a halt,businesses that can use domestic source markets have done so.

However, this is, of course, unsustainable, and so we need to work
to remove unnecessary restrictions and enable international mobility
for the sector to recover. The Travel and Tourism sector overall has
evolved; it has employed creativity and agility to adapt to the next
new normal. Destinations and businesses have diversified theirproduct offer, and have been looking to identify alternative revenue
streams, and considering how technology can offer opportunities forinnovation. Health and hygiene have become paramount in this new
period. Destinations have been collaborating with their extended
value chains, especially employees and suppliers, to ensure thereadiness and implementation of standardized health and safety
protocols. Health and hygiene measures now have become the basic
expectation for destinations rather than a competitive factor. Hygiene
is becoming as important in the traveler decision-making process as
price and location. Flexible booking options are also key, andbusinesses have to offer these to attract consumers.

Prospects for International Tourism
JS: During the pandemic, such business efforts areinvaluable, but they may not work so well in
restoring profits completely. Most of all, it seems
important to restore international tourism, but how
do you assess the prospects of this happening in
2021 and 2022?

Jus: International tourism has been the hardest hit. When we look at
the return of tourism, first we have the return of domestic, thenshort-haul international and then long-haul international. We do seesome recovery in select regions across the world this year. Our latest
projections for international tourism show that the strongest
international spending growth in 2021 is expected to be in the
Caribbean region. This region is set to see nearly a 62% increase ininternational spending this year, as many Caribbean nations haveremained open to international tourists. This is followed by the
Middle East region which is set to rise by 38%. However, the worst
performance this year unfortunately is expected in the Asia-Pacificregion, which is set to decline by 25% on 2020 numbers. As you
know, a number of countries in Asia-Pacific have remained closed tointernational tourists. Meanwhile, Europe and North America are set
to rise by 19% and 17%, respectively. Overall, growth is expected tobe very uneven across different regions. 2022 is set to see stronger
growth across most regions, and we expect very strong growth forJapan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

43

Asia-Pacific, as countries continue to open up. So we see AsiaPacific international spending rising by 148% in 2022 over 2021. The
Americas are nearly at 120%, North America at 147%, Europe at
77%, and the Middle East at 52%.
JS: Why have Caribbean nations fared so well, evenin 2021? Is this due to a low rate of infection?

Jus: It is a combination of factors. Some countries have had low
rates of infection, and have remained open for most of the time, andthese are the main two reasons. In terms of international travel, while
we are expecting to see strong growth rates in 2021 and 2022, weare not expecting a return to 2019 levels. However, there arepromising signs of recovery which is great news.
JS: Turning to efforts to mitigate the negative impact,

the tourism industry today is said to be taking a new
approach by using the Internet, including platforms
like Zoom, so that tourists can enjoy sightseeing
online. Will this be a sustainable initiative?

Jus: Take business travel for instance – in our most recent report, wehighlight growing interest in business travel once again, and while itis slower to return than leisure travel, there will always be the needfor face-to-face meetings and real interactions, which form a key partof the travel experience. We think that Zoom can amplify experiences
rather than replace them. Digital technology is important for leisureand business, for advance bookings using digital platforms, as well
as looking at advertisements on social platforms before making
decisions. So the digital element is very important but cannot replace
the human interaction and joy that travel brings to people.

should be a global recognition of all vaccines which have beenauthorized for use and deemed to be safe and effective by the WHO.
At the same time, there should be efforts to prioritize and support
vaccination rollout to enable vaccination equity across the world.
There is the saying “Nobody is safe until everybody is safe” – so wehave to push for an equitable vaccine rollout.
Another point is the promotion of safe and swift reopening ofborders; in order to do that, we need to have the support of digital
health passes and portals, where travelers can have their digitalpasses verified pre-travel and off-airport. These have the ability toenhance safety and security while creating more seamless travel
experiences by enabling travelers to easily obtain and verify theirvaccination status. And the interoperability and recognition of thesepasses and portals across countries will be very important for therecovery of the sector and the global economy.
JS: As you may know, there does seem to be somestrong political objection to vaccine certification.

Jus: This is why we need to push for international coordination andcollaboration and make others understand the science behind it aswell. We need an individual risk-based approach rather than acountry risk-based approach. We will need to overcome thischallenge to restart international Travel and Tourism again.

Long-Term Impact of the Pandemic on the
Tourism Sector
JS: There must be some structural impacts of the

JS: Turning to vaccination certificates, these are

pandemic on the tourism sector. Some businesses
may go bankrupt. How do you assess such longterm impacts on the tourism industry or
infrastructure?

Jus: Absolutely. This is one of the key drivers of the restart of Travel
and Tourism. There are a number of vaccines in use around theworld, but only seven of these have been approved by the World
Health Organization (WHO), and not all of the seven are recognizedby all countries. So as you can imagine, it is a complicated situation
with vaccination certification. For international travel, we think there

Jus: While there have been many negative impacts in terms of jobs
and financial losses, the pandemic has also been a catalyst for
innovation and new technologies. Some of the other trends we areseeing are that Covid-19 has definitely altered the way we live, workand travel and has also shifted travel requirements and preferencesin this process. Travelers are preferring to travel to unfamiliar, lesscrowded destinations and there has been an increased interest in
exploring secondary destinations and nature. This is a great
opportunity for businesses and countries to promote theseused in Europe and in the United States in particularalthough not in Japan yet. Would this work well torestore international tourism?

44 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

secondary destinations. There is also a greater commitment tosustainability, which in turn influences traveler choices. The
lockdowns have shone a brighter light on wellness and overall
health, which is causing travelers to seek out wellness experiences.
These are some of the interesting trends that we have been seeing, inaddition to businesses focusing on agility, innovation, health andhygiene integration, and the need for product diversification.
JS: Is it fair to say that the tourism industry willprobably be less labor-intensive and a more capitalintensive industry than before?

Jus: Personally, I think that tourism will always remain a people’sbusiness, and there will always be the need for human interaction.
So yes, we could have a robot that brings your drinks to the hotelroom, but I think travelers want a more personalized experience thatthey can only get from human interaction sometimes. There will be
the need for destinations and governments to invest in digital andphysical infrastructure. I mentioned the trend of travelers wanting to
go to secondary destinations and experience new destinations, andas a result of this, we will need to facilitate tourism flows from larger
cities to secondary destinations. Investment in physicalinfrastructure will be key to enabling this, such as improved
transportation options – more direct flights, quality roads and rail
networks – as well as quality hotels, holiday rental apartments,
recreation facilities such as golf courses and ski areas, areas for
cycling, with options for solo travelers and families. Moreover, withaccess to health services becoming a very important criterion in thetravel decision-making process, it will be very important fordestinations and governments to direct investment toward thedevelopment of quality health infrastructure as well. Covid-19 has
accelerated the digital agenda; technology will continue to play animportant role as a key enabler of safe and seamless travel
experiences. So it will be important for governments to invest in thedigital infrastructure of emerging destinations and remote regions
and to develop digital skills within local communities and ensure that
nobody is left behind. There is also, of course, the need fordestinations and governments to invest in contactless experiences
and better, more widespread Internet connectivity, not just in majorurban areas.
JS: Population density does seem to be an issue inthe pandemic. Would there be a new trend emerging

after this crisis whereby people want to visit thecountryside rather than urbanized places?
Jus: We have witnessed an increased interest in secondary
destinations; people want to connect with nature and local
communities, and they want to integrate wellness experiences into
their trips as well. This is a shift that we have seen and so it isimportant for governments and destinations to understand thesetrends, and to cater to these tourists by improving product offer andenhancing infrastructure and connectivity.

Government Aid for the Sector
JS: You have already mentioned government aid forthe industry during this pandemic. I am curious
about possible government aid for the industry after
the pandemic is over. Infrastructure is damaged,
and some sort of competence and capacity has also
been damaged in this sector. So do you think thesector would expect continuous government aid torestore the infrastructure or industrial capacity overthe long term?

Jus: Government support has been key for businesses during the
pandemic. We have been looking at a number of good examples ofgovernment support during the crisis. Worker protection, and fiscal
and liquidity support were paramount. The United Kingdom has agreat example of a government support scheme for workers, and you
have probably heard of the Digital COVID Certificate in the European
Union to facilitate travel – which is a great example of how
governments can work in a harmonized way. Also, health protocols
have been key. We, at the WTTC, have worked with governments,
health experts and other industry associations to develop
harmonized and effective safe travel protocols for 11 industries
across the sector to accelerate the recovery. On the basis of these
protocols, we have created the Safe Travels Stamp to recognize
destinations and businesses around the world which have adopted
the same standardized safe travel health and hygiene protocols.
More than 400 destinations and 40 countries worldwide (as ofNovember 2021) have received our Safe Travels Stamp. This willcontinue to be important going forward. We will need ongoingsupport for the industry, and tourism support measures must
address the survival and recovery of the sector whilst also enhancing
Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 202245

its resilience, sustainability, and social impact. Government support
for tourism infrastructure projects will be needed, and we should notforget that infrastructure is not only used by tourists but also local
populations, so there are wider benefits that need to be taken into
account. Tax incentives should be offered to encourage investment
from different stakeholders, subsidies as well. All of that is going tolead us out of the pandemic and into a more sustainable future.
JS: The tourism industry’s performance has asignificant impact on the economy. All national
governments will be in severe competition in
attracting tourists to their countries. Tourism isrelated to nation-branding also, so in that regard, do
you think national governments would intervene inproviding aid to their tourism industry in the future?

Jus: As we come out of the pandemic and until international mobility
is fully restored, there will be more competition for tourists. This is
why it is so important for governments and destinations tounderstand all of the trends I mentioned before as well as theirsource markets, and to determine their marketing strategies
accordingly. Health and hygiene integration and communication willremain important for attracting tourists. Also, it will be key to show
the important impact that Travel and Tourism has on local
communities, and the environment of the destinations as these will
be important considerations for potential travelers. It is important tonote that governments should continue investing in Travel andTourism as it has a large positive impact on GDP, jobs and society.

WTTC’s Plan to Support Global Tourism
in 2022
JS: Does the WTTC have any plans to support global

tourism in 2022 or beyond?

Jus: One of our main goals is to help restart international tourism.
This is only possible if leaders and public officials have a coordinatedresponse to the resumption of international travel, including clear
roadmaps and mobility protocols which provide certainty and also
help to restore consumer confidence. We have been working withgovernments on a coordinated response to the pandemic, to remove
travel restrictions and to enable international mobility. We are callingon governments to prioritize individual risk assessment over country

46 Japan SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2022

risk assessment. We are currently calling for five policy measures tobe met by governments worldwide.
The first one is to allow fully vaccinated travelers to move freely,irrespective of their origin or eventual destination. Secondly, theimplementation of digital solutions which enable all travelers toeasily prove their Covid-19 status, such as the EU’s Digital COVID
Certificate, in turn speeding up the processes at borders around theworld. Thirdly, for safe international travel to fully restart,
governments must recognize all vaccines authorized by the WHO.
Fourthly, ongoing support for the COVAX/UNICEF initiative to ensure
equitable distribution of vaccines throughout the world; and finally,
the continued implementation of enhanced health and safety
protocols which will underpin consumer confidence.
Another very important area for us is sustainable growth. The
pandemic has emphasized the urgency of building back better withsustainability and stewardship at the core. We are also working on
our own sustainability strategy which focuses on the environment,
climate and social issues, with an emphasis on evidence to drive
meaningful action. So we continue to leverage our strategic
partnerships with key organizations such as Harvard University, theUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) toadvance issues ranging from sustainability leadership to plastics,
waste management and illegal wildlife trade.
In the context of the recent COP26 we have launched our Net Zero
Roadmap for Travel and Tourism. This has been completed with thecollaboration of UNEP and Accenture, and addresses the need forurgent climate action. We have also launched guidelines on key
social issues such as diversity, inclusion and mental health, whichhave had particular salience during the Covid-19 pandemic. As travel
demand returns, we need to ensure that travel experiences are safe
and seamless while growth is sustainable and inclusive for people on
the planet.

Written with the cooperation of Joel Challender who is a translator, interpreter,
researcher and writer specializing in Japanese disaster preparedness.