Global Risk Forum
Davos

David Alexander

GRF - Davos (CH)GlobalGlobal Risk
Risk Forum
Forum Davos
Davos•• FoundedFounded inin 2008
2008 byby Dr.
Dr. Walter
WalterJ.
J. Ammann
Ammann CEO
CEO andand President
President•• Funded
Funded by
by Swiss
Swiss federal,federal, cantonalcantonal andand local
local
government,government, private
private sector,sector, other
other sources.
sources.
•• ThreeThree biennial
biennial International
International Disaster
Disasterand-2010) held:
and Risk
Risk Conferences
Conferences (2006(2006-2010)
held:
aa fourthfourth isis plannedplanned forfor AugustAugust 2012.
2012.
•• Network
Network ofof collaboration
collaboration withwith 1212 UN
UN
organisations,organisations, 40
40 international
international organisationsorganisations
andand many
many academic
academic andand researchresearch institutions.
institutions.
•• Formal-operation agreements
Formal co
co-operationagreements withwithEU,.
EU, UN,UN, China,
China, Singapore,Singapore, etc.
etc..

GRF
GRF Pillars
Pillars
IDRC
Davos
Biennial
International
Conference
IDRC
regional
conferences
andworkshops

Risk Academy

Planet@risk

Think-tank
Issue andknowledge
management
Training
coursesPublicawarenessE-journal(good practice)Web-based
networking
platform
Stakeholder
management

GRF Davos Risk Academy is athink-tank for risk reduction,
disaster management, climatechange and other risk issues.

Awareness raising•exhibitions•movie screenings•public round tables

Education•training courses•workshops•public lectures•publications

GRF Risk Academy
Services & Products•e-journal•regular updates
on global risk
•GRF edited books

R&D•project development
on integrated risk
management

Current
Current GRF
GRF Projects:
Projects:•• aa programme
programme ofof serial
serial publications
publications•• twotwo major
major international
international conferences
conferences•• aa suite
suite ofof disasterdisaster management
management courses
courses•• aa series
series ofof researchresearch proposals
proposals onondisaster.
disaster risk
risk reduction
reduction andand resilience
resilience.

GRF One Health Summit 2012
One Health – One Planet – One Future
Risks and Opportunities
19-23 February 2012
Davos, Switzerland

www.grforum.org

From Thought to Action

4th International
Disaster and Risk Conference

IDRC Davos 2012
Integrative Risk Management
in a Changing WorldFor up-to-date informationand to sign up for ournewsletter please visit

www.grforum.org

26- 30 August 2012
Davos / Switzerlandwith pre- and post-conference
eventsEarthquakes and Housing
HowHow toto Develop
Develop aa Survival
Survival Strategy
Strategy

Recent research by David AlexanderDamage
DamageDamage level
level 2:2:
Damage level
level 1:
1:
mainly-structural
minimum
mainly non
non-structural
minimum

DamageDamage level
level 3:
3:architectural
architectural

DamageDamage level
level 4:
4:
seriousserious structural
structural

Characterisation of-isation
damage forassessmentof personalrisk level

DamageDamage level
level 5:5:collapsecollapse

QQTT

Poor
Poor buildingbuilding
qualityquality(low(low seismic
seismicresistance)
resistance)

Topographic
Topographic
amplification
amplification

Proximity
Proximity
toto epicentre
epicentre
andand fault
fault
ruptureruptureSedimentary
Sedimentary
amplification
amplification

EE
Concentration
Concentration
ofof casualties
casualties

SS

CC == ff {{ E,Q,S,T
E,Q,S,T }}

CC

The
The 2009
2009 L'Aquila
L'Aquila (Italy)(Italy) earthquake
earthquake

03.32
03.32 hrs,hrs, Monday
Monday 66 April
April 2009
2009
Magnitude
6,3
Magnitude MMww 6,3Duration
Duration 25
25 seconds
seconds
Acceleration
Acceleration on
on hardhard rockrock 0,3g
0,3g
Acceleration-1,0g
Acceleration on
on sediments
sediments 0,70,7-1,0g
PartPart ofof anan earthquake
earthquake swarm
swarm fromfrom
October
October 2008
2008 toto July
July 20092009
308.
308 deaths,deaths, 1500
1500 injuries
injuries.

n=202

6-25 deaths

3-5 deaths

1-2 deaths

One
One oror twotwo individuals
individuals
NoNo deaths
deathsClusters
Clusters
ofof multiple
multipledeathsdeathsL'Aquila city

No
No deaths:
deaths:housing
housing stock
stock waswasinin relatively
relatively good
good
condition
condition andanddamagedamage waswas limited
limitedDamage/risk
scale: 1-2
1-2

One
One oror two
two individuals:
individuals:
peoplepeople rushedrushed outside
outsideandand werewere killed
killed bybyfalling
falling masonry
masonry

Damage/risk
scale: 3-4
3-4

... or in
the collapseof stairwells.

Clusters
Clusters ofof
multiple
multiple deaths:
deaths:spectacular
spectacular collapses
collapsesof-occupancy
of multi
multi-occupancy
buildings
buildings withwith upup
toto 25
25 deaths
deaths each:each:
topographic
topographic
amplification
amplification was
was ananadditional.
additional factor
factor.
Damage/risk
scale: 5

Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:

IntertiaIntertia effecteffectInteraction
Interaction == damage
damageLack
Lack ofof stiffness
stiffness inin frame
frame
Basal
Basal acceleration
acceleration

Models of typicalvernacular housingbuilding types
Analysis ofcharacteristic
failure modes
Determinationof appropriate
crisis behaviour
Education andtraining ofhouseholds
Culture ofprotection
and resilienceemergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
D.Alexander@alice.it