‫ە‬Research Trends and Results Construction of an APEC edition of a Tradeand Logistics Prediction System

SHIBASAKI Ryuichi, Senior Researcher
Port and Harbor Department

Research Trends and Results(keywords) Trade prediction, international logistics model, APEC
1. Outline of research
The authors have entered future social andeconomic variables and international economic andtransport policies to construct the Trade and Logistics
Prediction System, which predicts the future value ofinternational trade and quantity of cargo logistics incountries around the world. Last year, we constructed
the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)
edition model, which is an expanded and modified
version of this system, and expect that we will receive
approval very soon from the Transportation WorkingGroup
Maritime
SecurityExperts
Group(TPTWG-MEG) of APEC. This report present anoutline of this system.2. The model Figure 1 is an overall image of the system. Thissystem is broadly divided into two parts, the Trade
Prediction Model and the Cargo Logistics Model(International Logistics Model). To apply the trademodel, social and economic variables such as
population, capital, etc. plus future values of tariff
rates and other international economy and trade
policies are input to separate scenarios based on theauthors’ own surveys, and the future values of trade bycommodity in participating countries and regions are
estimated based on the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis
Project) model. Using the International Logistics
Model, a trade statistics database etc. is used toconvert future values of trade in various countries
obtained above to cargo transport demand by zones
more detailed than countries, then the multi-modebalanced allocation model which permits simultaneousconsideration of marine and land transport networks,
which the authors independently constructed, isapplied to obtain the quantity of cargo transport bytransportation systems under future internationaltransport infrastructure policies.

3. Examples of results of estimation
As examples of results of estimation, results oftrade value predictions by scenario in 21 nations andregions participating in APEC (specific names omitted
due to space limitations) are shown in Figure 2, andresults of the allotment by international trade models
based on trade prediction amounts of the 2015 middle
case from among these (including numbers ofcontainers and transshipments handled by major ports,
but excluding containers carried by air) are shown inFigure 3.
The final report presents not only results of such
future predictions, but the results of changes of future
numbers of containers handled depending on whether
or not future investment is made in ports and of asimulation of the impacts of detouring when the Straitof Malacca is closed.
Future scenarios of social and economic trends♫఍⤒῭ືྥ䛻㛵䛩䜛ᑗ᮶䝅䝘䝸䜸1) Trade and international economicpolicies

1.㻝㻚㻌㈠᫆ண
Trade predictionmodel䝰䝕䝹㻝㻕㻌㈠᫆䞉ᅜ㝿⤒῭ᨻ⟇ධຊInput

Futurevalue of trade
ᑗ᮶㈠᫆㢠Trade unit price, economic indices etc. by region㈌≀༢౯䠈ᆅᇦู⤒῭ᣦᶆ➼Inter-zone international trade transport demand䝌䞊䞁㛫ᅜ㝿㈌≀㍺㏦㟂せ䠄㻻㻰㈌≀㔞䠅(OD cargoes)㻞㻚㻌㈌≀ὶື䝰䝕䝹
2.
Cargo logistics model(internationallogistics model)䠄ᅜ㝿≀ὶ䝰䝕䝹䠅

Input
ධຊ

㻞㻕㻌ᅜ㝿஺㏻ᨻ⟇䠄 ‴ᢞ㈨䛺䛹䠅

2) International Transport Policies(port investment etc.)

Input㍺㏦㈝⏝ฟຊ

Figure 1. Overall Structure of the Trade and Logistics
Prediction SystemCargo flow by link, quantity of cargo‴ྲྀᢅ㔞➼handled by ports䝸䞁䜽ู㈌≀䝣䝻䞊䞉

Transportation cost[Reference documents]
NILIM, MLIT, Japan Impacts of Trade and Transport Policy
on International Cargo Shipping and Economic Activities(Final Report), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,Transportation Working Group











‫ە‬Research Trends and Results2008 (values reproduced by model)
2008ᖺ䠄䝰䝕䝹෌⌧್䠅

2010

2015

2020

2025

Figure 2. Results of Predictionsof Future Trade by Scenario

Sydney (Australia)

Seattle (U.S.)

Los Angeles (U.S.)

Vancouver (Canada)

Singapore

TJ Perak (Indonesia)

Port Kelang (Malaysia)

Manila (Philippines)

Ho Chi Min (Vietnam)

Hong Kong

Shenzhen (China)

Ningbo (China)

New York/New Jersey (U.S.)

2005

Laem Chabang (Thailand)100

Kaohsiung (Taiwan)

150
501502000

Shanghai (China)

䢑㼒 200

Tianjin (China)

2015 (predicted್䠅values)
2015ᖺ䠄ண

Qingdao (China)䝻䞊䜿䞊䝇Lowcase(1millionTEU/year)
䠄ⓒ୓TEU/ᖺ䠅

KobeWORLD
䝝䜲䜿䞊䝇
䝧
䞊䝇䝷䜲䞁
Baseline䝭䝗䝹䜿䞊䝇High䝝䜲䜿䞊case
䝇
䝻
䞊
䜿䞊䝇
䝭䝗
䝹䜿䞊䝇case
Middle3530
2520
151050)Pusan (Korea)

450
㼖 500
00400
1250=450㼖㻺
00350
400
11200=0㻺0㼕2䡢 300
10䡷3500㼕2䢋150
䡢300
䡷㼦 250䢋䢑250
㼦㼒100200(䞁䝧 g䝇䝷䜲Tokyo300

Trade value change rate (2001 = 100)


Figure 3. Predicted Quantities of Cargo Handled in Major Ports
in the 2015 Middle Case