VIETNAMESE POLITICS:
CHINA-VIETNAMRELATIONS & TPP
Nhat Be Minh
Graduate School of Public Policy, MPP/IP
The University of Tokyo

CONTENTS• Brief history of China-Vietnam relations• Prehistoric times• During Vietnam war• The Border War 1979
• Relations normalization 1991
• The divide line within VCP from 1991 – Now• TPP and its impact on China-Vietnam relations• Conclusion

CHINA-VIETNAM RELATIONS
Deference

Solidarity

Balancing
Enmeshment

CHINA-VIETNAM RELATIONS

1999
16-WordGuideline
1991
Officialrelation
normalization
1990
ChengduSummit

2000
JointAgreement on
Comprehensive
Corporation

2008
StrategicRelation

TRADE ISSUES WITH CHINA
40,000.00

35,000.00

30,000.00

25,000.00

Trade volume(in million USD)

20,000.00

15,000.00

10,000.00

5,000.00

Year19921995

1997199920012002200320042005200620072008

20092010

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution andInternational Trade CenterTRADE ISSUES WITH CHINA
0.00-2000.00-4000.00
Trade Balance with
China

-6000.00-8000.00

World tradebalance forVietnam-10000.00-12000.00-14000.00-16000.00-18000.00-20000.00
Year 1992 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution andInternational Trade CenterTRADE ISSUES WITH CHINA
Vietnam's Imports from China in 2011

22%
30%

Vietnam's Exports to China in 2011

Electrical, electronicequipment

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation
products, etc

Machinery, nuclear reactors,
boilers, etc

Rubber and articles thereof

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation
products, etc

Electrical, electronicequipment

24%

Iron and steel

25%

Fertilizers
Manmade staple fibres
18%

3%
3%
3%
3%

Cotton
Plastics and articles thereof

4%

6%

8%
Knitted or crocheted fabric
OthersWood and articles of wood,
wood charcoalEdible fruit, nuts, peel ofcitrus fruit, melons

4%Cotton

4%
17%

4%
4%
4%

5%

9%

Machinery, nuclear reactors,boilers, etc
Milling products, malt,starches, inulin, wheat gluten
Commodities not elsewhere
specifiedOthers

Source: World Integrated Trade Solution andInternational Trade Center

CHINESE INVESTMENT• FDI: 14th largest investor• ODA: one of the regular donors• 90% of EPC contract in thermal power plant(2007 – 2011)

Delay• Safety• Technology• Illegal Chinese workers•CHINESE INVESTMENT
ProjectsContractors

1. Haiphong Thermal Plant

Shanghai Electric Group;

2. Quang Ninh Thermal Plant

Dong Phuong Group

3. Cam Pha Thermal Plant

Tender Price (MillionUSD)

2,800

4. Son Dong Thermal Plant
5. Vinh Tan 2 Thermal Plant
6. Kien Luong Thermal Plant

Tan Tao Group2,000

7. Lam Dong Bauxite Aluminum

Chalieco Group466

8. Alumin Nhan Co - Dak Nong

Chalieco Group

499.2

9. Ca Mau Fertilizer Plant

China National Machinery
Imports; Exports andWuhuan Engineering

900

Source: VEPRTERRITORIAL CONFLICTSDECISION-MAKING PROCESSVCPGeneral
Secretary

PolitburoPrime
MinisterPresident

1992-1997

GS
Do Muoi

President
Le DucAnhPM
Vo VanKiet

1997-2002
LeDuc
AnhDo
Muoi

VoVan
Kiet

G.S.
Le KhaPhieu

President
Tran Duc
Luong

P.M.
Phan
Van Khai2002-2006

G.S.
Nong Duc
ManhPresident
Tran Duc
Luong

P.M.
Phan Van
Khai

2006-2011

G.S.
Nong Duc
ManhPresident
Nguyen
Minh Triet

P.M.
NguyenTan Dung2011-NOW

G.S.
NguyenPhu Trong

President
TruongTan SangP.M.
NguyenTan Dung

Progressive

DIVIDED LEADERSHIP
Do Muoi

Phan Van
Khai

Le KhaPhieuNguyen Tan
Dung

Nong Duc
Manh

Conservative

Vo Van Kiet

VIETNAM’S CHINA POLICY

Economicdevelopment

Socialist
ideology

TPPVIETNAM – TPP COUNTRIES
No.
1Exporters

Import in 2007 Import in 2008 Import in 2009 Import in 2010 Import in 2011

China

12,709,953

15,973,552

16,673,276

20,203,643

24,866,392

Total to TPP

19,602,727

24,997,894

19,229,083

22,915,729

28,821,718

3

Japan

6,188,907

8,240,307

7,468,092

9,016,086

10,400,666

5Singapore

7,613,746

9,377,975

4,248,356

4,101,145

6,390,575

7

United States of America1,700,464

2,652,015

3,019,430

3,779,836

4,555,260

8

Malaysia

2,289,912

2,596,052

2,504,735

3,413,393

3,919,720

12

Australia

1,059,376

1,357,897

1,050,035

1,443,642

2,123,283

29

New Zealand

246,358

237,181249,663

352,968

383,946

31

Canada287,196

297,844

300,219349,315

342,13632

Chile

110,051

104,390

147,189

291,231335,72839

Brunei Darussalam

-

1,498

-

10,006

189,178

52

Mexico58,732

61,616

163,585

89,14891,34653Peru47,985

71,11977,77968,95989,880Source: International Trade Centre

VIETNAM – TPP COUNTRIESNo.
2Importers

Export in 2007 Export in 2008 Export in 2009 Export in 2010 Export in 2011

China

3,646,128

4,850,110

5,402,9787,742,950

11,613,324

Total in TPP

24,822,764

30,744,939

25,199,998

30,457,148

37,523,842

1

United States of America

10,111,428

11,902,834

11,415,618

14,250,850

16,970,422

3

Japan

6,089,9788,467,750

6,335,602

7,727,660

11,091,713

6

Malaysia

1,554,974

2,030,402

1,775,157

2,093,118

2,770,808

7

Australia

3,802,213

4,351,580

2,386,092

2,704,004

2,601,965

12

Singapore

2,234,386

2,713,824

2,075,621

2,121,314

2,149,252

26

Canada539,178

656,384

638,506

802,058

969,409

30

Mexico360,381436,442

359,090

488,829589,749

47

New Zealand

67,051

76,64270,504

122,645

151,377

51

Chile

46,704

68,892

110,520

94,099137,53562Peru

16,47135,69725,59838,33676,250100

Brunei Darussalam

-

4,492

7,690

14,235

15,362

Source: International Trade Centre

IMPACTS- Vietnam’s Markets- Vietnam’s Suppliers- State-owned enterprises- Government procurementLEADERSHIP“Vietnam are living in a region surrounded bytigers and a dragon; the continued
backwardness of the country is the biggest
security threat to the nation.”- PM Vo Van Kiet (1991 – 1997)“We live adjacent to a bigcountry; we cannot afford tomaintain tension with thembecause they are next door tous.”

G.S.
NguyenPhu Trong- GS Le Kha Phieu (1997 – 2001)

President
TruongTan SangP.M.
NguyenTan DungLIMITATIONS- Just focused on the GS, PM and the president- The secrecy of decision-making processTHANK YOU