TCC Activity Report for 2015
In 2015, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued to support the climate services of NMHSs in
Asia-Pacific countries by providing and enhancing data and products, holding training seminars,
dispatching experts and hosting visitors.
1. Highlights of 2015
1.1 Upgrade of JMA's Seasonal forecast model in June 2015
JMA introduced a new version of its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS2) inJune 2015. This seasonal ensemble prediction system (EPS) is used to produce three-month andwarm/cold season predictions as well as El Niño monitoring and outlook work. Changes in the newsystem include enhanced resolution, improved physics in the model’s atmospheric and oceaniccomponents, and the introduction of an interactive sea ice model. The changes made improved
predictive skill overall, among other things, ones for sea surface temperatures associated with El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere andprecipitation in the tropics. More detailed verification information is provided on the TCC website. In
the new real-time operational suite, 51-member ensemble integration is carried out from consecutiveinitial dates with intervals of five days. An outline of the model’s configuration and its operation isprovided on the TCC website and in TCC News No. 40.
1.2 Upgrade of the Interactive Tool for Analysis of Climate System (iTacs)
In November 2015, TCC launched version 5 of its web-based application software named “iTacs”.
iTacs stands for “Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System,” and was developed byJMA/TCC to assist National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). iTacs supports thecreation of various types of charts to enable analysis of the characteristics and structure of climatesystems, various types of charts and it is also equipped with a variety of statistical functions, such as
linear regression and correlation coefficients, EOF, SVD and FFT. In iTacs ver. 5, 30-year re-forecast(hindcast) datasets covering the period from 1981 to 2010 are additionally implemented with JMA’s
one-month ensemble prediction system. iTacs ver. 5 also provides more efficient connections between
client PCs and web servers via a revamped web interface. Please refer to TCC News No. 42 for more
information on this upgrade.
1.3 Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)WMO Regional Association II recognized at its fifteenth session (2012) that it is important to sharegood practices and lessons learned for the successful implementation of the GFCS and thus adopted anew Pilot Project on Information Sharing on Climate Services. TCC plays a leading role in theimplementation of the Project. As part of related work, it launched a dedicated website(http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/pilot/) to share information on climate services provided by NMHSs andon their Framework-related activities on 31 March 2014. In summer 2015, TCC again invited NMHSs
in RA II to take part in this pilot project via a questionnaire survey. The aims of this work were to
update the website’s content and enhance information highlighting the concrete examples and goodpractices of climate information usage. The updated information is available on the website.

2. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC website
TCC strives to continuously extend its services in the provision of data, products and tools. In 2015,
the following data and products were made available on its website:
June:
Upgrade of JMA's Seasonal forecast model13 November: Version upgrade of iTacs (Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System)
Some of these new data/products were made available in response to requests by NMHSs, and arealso expected to be useful to other parties. The Center will continue to accommodate requests fromNMHSs wherever possible.

3. Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as
an RCC in RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, it also arranges expert visits to andhosts visitors from NMHSs to support exchanges of views on climate services and the effective
transfer of technology.
3.1 Training seminar
TCC hold a training seminar in its each fiscal year from April to March. In 2015, TCC held aseminar in November, with one-month forecasts as the subject. Details of the event are reported in
TCC News No.42.
3.2 Expert visits and other follow-up activities
TCC experts visited the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) in March and the Department ofMeteorology (DOM) of Sri Lanka in Colombo in June, to hold a follow-up seminar on the generationof climate change projection information by using one of the latest global warming projection data.
The visits were planned as follow-up to the TCC training seminar held in January 2015, and also
provided an opportunity for TMD and DOM to discuss future cooperation with TCC (TCC News
No.40 and TCC News No.41).
Other follow-up activities to previous TCC training seminars included accepting expert visits at theTCC and conducting teleconferences to provide technical supports.

4. International meetings
4.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to discussions in Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs). In 2015, TCC experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:- Sixth Fifth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) held in Dhaka,Bangladesh, from 21 to 22 April- Eleventh session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction forRegional Association II (FOCRA II) held in Beijing, China, from 11 to 13 May- Third session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) held in Seoul, Republic

of Korea, from 3 to 5 November- Fifth session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) held in Singapore from 18 to19 November
TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions based on JMA’s numerical model andparticipated in discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement on regional forecasts.
4.2 Other meetings
In 2015, TCC head Dr Kazutoshi Onogi attended two meetings in Geneva, Switzerland to contributeto the implementation and management of GFCS. In April, he also attended the meeting of the Task
Team on Monitoring and Evaluation of implementation of the GFCS as a member of this task team,and in October took part in the third session of the Management Committee of the Intergovernmental
Board on Climate Services in Geneva.
Mr Atsushi Goto, a TCC expert and member of the CCl/CBS Joint Expert Team on Regional
Climate Centres (ET-RCCs), participated in the session, held in conjunction with the Task Team onRegional Climate Outlook Forums (TT-RCOFs) in Melbourne, Australia in September.

5. Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on a quarterly basis since 2005. The publication isintended to enhance communication and provide information to NMHSs and related communities
about recent TCC developments, events and activities as well as details of the Center’s reports on thestate of the climate, monitoring results and outlooks. In 2015, TCC News Nos. 39 – 42 were issued
and made available on the TCC website.
Other English-language publications related to the climate, such as Climate Change Monitoring
Report 2014 and Annual Report on the Climate System 2014, were also published on the TCC
website.

6.

Staff changes
Ms. Teruko Manabe, who served as the Head of TCC for four years, moved to the Tokyo Regional
Headquarters of the Japan Meteorological Agency on 1st April, to work as Director of the Disaster
Mitigation Department there. She has been replaced with Kazutoshi Onogi (PhD) who has longcontributed to the development of JMA’s long-term reanalysis data and long-range forecast models.

7. Plans for 2016
- Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)RCCs are expected to play a major role in the implementation of the GFCS. TCC plans to further
strengthen its activities and lead RA II’s contribution to the Framework. Such activities include theprovision of further assistance to NMHSs for better climate services, as well as maintenance andupdating of the portal site for the Pilot Project on Information Sharing on Climate Services.

- New/upgraded data, products and tool development
TCC plans to implement a major upgrade of its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System foroperational one-month forecasting by early 2017.
To leverage the JRA-55, long-term reanalysis dataset, investigation on teleconnection indices (e.g.,
the Arctic Oscillation Index) is being prepared to enhance monitoring of atmospheric circulation. TCC
plans to publish the investigation results and the indices on its website in 2016. In addition to its workon the above-listed products and tool, TCC is making efforts to develop information/products based on
the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) towards better monitoring of droughts worldwide.
- Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual training seminar with a dozen invited
experts as attendees. The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to NMHSs as necessary andhost visitors from NMHSs upon request.