TCC Activity Report for 2016
In 2016, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued to support the climate services of NMHSs in
Asia-Pacific countries by providing and enhancing data and products, holding training seminars,
dispatching experts and hosting visitors.
1. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC website
1.1 Renewed statistical products regarding the impacts of tropical SST variability on the global
climate system
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropics can significantly impact on the global
climate through atmospheric circulation. El Niño/La Niña events, which are identified by SST
fluctuations from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific (NINO.3), are widely-known examplesof this. In addition, SST variability in the western tropical Pacific (NINO.WEST) and the tropicalIndian Ocean (IOBW) may also have significantly affect climate conditions around the world. InJanuary 2016, TCC has updated a part of its web pages that host investigation results on impacts oftropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the global climate and atmospheric circulation.
The renewed products show statistical relationships between warmer/cooler SST events in the areas ofNINO.3, NINO.WEST (i.e., El Niño/La Niña events) and the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) and theglobal climate system. The analysis is based on surface observation data, the COBE-SST analysis
dataset produced by JMA, JMA’s latest reanalysis dataset (JRA-55) and satellite observation data for
outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The period of the analysis was from 1958 through 2012 (55years). See the web page of “Global climate” and “Atmospheric Circulation” for more details on dataand methodology.
1.2 Incorporation of ENSO Forecast Probabilities into the El Niño Outlook
Forecast probabilities for the onset, persistence and end of ENSO events (El Niño, La Niña andENSO-neutral periods) were incorporated into the TCC El Niño Outlook in August 2016 for addedclarity.
Specifically, information on ENSO event outlooks contained in the lead part and the main body now
includes probability values regarding ENSO event onset and other considerations. By way of example,
the second lead part of the El Niño Outlook in July (before the update) was as follows: La Niña conditions are less likely to develop during boreal summer than in the previous month’sprediction; La Niña onset is more likely to occur in boreal autumn.
With the new forecast probability information, the lead would be: The likelihood of La Niña conditions developing during boreal summer is 40%, which is lower
than in the previous month’s prediction.
 Despite a 40% likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal autumn, it is more
likely that a La Niña event will begin to develop in autumn (60%).
Using probability values in the ENSO outlook supports expression of the likelihood of the onset,
persistence and end of ENSO events with greater precision than simple expressions and users are also
provided with information on probability changes or tendencies compared to the previous month’soutlook.
These probabilities are based on output from the JMA’s ENSO prediction model(JMA/MRI-CGCM2), which is also used for three-month prediction and warm-/cold-season prediction.

The model is operated as a 51-member ensemble prediction system, and probabilities are essentiallycalculated as ratios of variables used to predict each event (El Niño, La Niña or ENSO-neutralconditions) before being calibrated using data from the 30-year (1981 – 2010) re-forecast experiment.
1.3 Revamp of TCC website
In March 2016, the Center revamped its website to improve user accessibility and operability. Users
can now more easily access periodically updated products via the new Latest Update section on theleft of the page. Positioning the mouse pointer over a window shows a key figure of each product anda related link. This upgrade provides users with convenient access to monthly, seasonally and annually
updated products.
The update also provides brief introductions and links to major recommended products including
iTacs (Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System), long-range fore-cast products from the
Global Producing Center (GPC Tokyo), Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlook, El Niño
Outlook, ClimatView (a worldwide CLIMAT viewer), and TCC News. TCC updates such as productlaunches and TCC News releases are also provided on the upper right of the screen.
2. Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as
an RCC in RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, it also arranges expert visits to andhosts visitors from NMHSs to support exchanges of views on climate services and the effective
transfer of technology.
2.1 Training seminar
TCC hold a training seminar in its each fiscal year from April to March. In 2016, TCC held aseminar in November, with primary mode of global climate variability and regional climate as thesubject. Details of the event are reported in TCC News No. 46.
2.2 Expert visits and other follow-up activities
TCC experts visited the National Center of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) of Viet
Nam in April and the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of Cambodia in August, to hold a follow-up
seminar on one-month forecasts using the statistical downscaling technique and in the basic operationof TCC’s Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System (iTacs). The visits were planned asfollow-up to the TCC training seminar held in November 2015, and also provided an opportunity for
NCHMF and DOM to discuss future cooperation with TCC (TCC News No. 44 and TCC News No.
45).
Other follow-up to previous TCC training seminars included hosting visiting experts at TCC andconducting teleconferences to provide technical support.
3. International meetings
3.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to discussions in Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs). In 2016, TCC experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:- Twelfth session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction forRegional Association II (FOCRA II) held in Guangzhou, China, from 7 to 9 April

- Eighth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) held in Colombo, SriLanka, from 25 to 26 April- Ninth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9) held in Nay Pyi Taw,Myanmar, from 27 to 28 September- Fourth session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) held in Ulaanbaatar,Mongolia, from 8 to 9 November
TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions based on JMA’s numerical model andparticipated in discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement on regional forecasts.
3.2 Other meetings
In 2016, TCC head Mr Kiyotoshi Takahashi and TCC expert Mr Atsushi Goto attended the fourth
session of the Management Committee of the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services held in
Darmstadt, Germany, to contribute to the implementation and management of GFCS. Mr Goto also
took part in the Developers’ Meeting on GFCS-Relevant Climate Data, Products, and Tools held in
Geneva, Switzerland, in December.
4. Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on a quarterly basis since 2005. The publication isintended to enhance communication and provide information to NMHSs and related communities
about recent TCC developments, events and activities as well as details of the Center’s reports on thestate of the climate, monitoring results and outlooks. In 2016, TCC News Nos. 43 – 47 were issued
and made available on the TCC website.
Other English-language publications related to the climate, such as Climate Change Monitoring
Report 2015 and Annual Report on the Climate System 2015, were also published on the TCC
website.
5.

Staff changes
Dr Kazutoshi Onogi, who served as the head of TCC in 2015, transferred to the Planning Divisionof the Japan Meteorological Agency on 1st April to work as Senior Coordinator for Research andDevelopment. He was succeeded by Mr Kiyotoshi Takahashi, who previously worked on thedevelopment of JMA’s long-term reanalysis data and long-range forecast models.
6. Plans for 2017
- Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)RCCs are expected to play a major role in the implementation of the GFCS. TCC plans to further
strengthen its activities and lead RA II’s contribution to the Framework. Such activities include theprovision of further assistance to NMHSs for better climate services, as well as maintenance andupdating of the portal site for the Pilot Project on Information Sharing on Climate Services.
- New/upgraded data, products and tool development
TCC plans to implement a major upgrade of its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System foroperational one-month forecasting by spring 2017.
To leverage the JRA-55 long-term reanalysis dataset, investigation on teleconnection indices (e.g.,
the Arctic Oscillation Index) is being conducted to enhance monitoring of atmospheric circulation.

TCC plans to publish the investigation results and the indices on its website in 2017. In addition to its
work on the above-listed products and tool, TCC is making efforts to develop information/products
based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) toward better monitoring of droughts worldwide.
- Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual training seminar with a dozen invitedexperts as attendees. The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to NMHSs as necessary andhost visitors from NMHSs upon request.
- Hosting of EASCOF
In autumn, TCC will host the fifth session of the East Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum(EASCOF) with the participation of experts engaged in climate services at NMHSs and researchers
from China, Japan, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea. At the event, the climate conditions of theprevious season will be reviewed, and the current status of the climate system as well as the seasonal
Asian winter monsoon forecast for winter 2017/2018 will be discussed.