IEEJ: June 2010

Angolan Country Presentation
JICA Training Dialog Program / May 2010

IEEJ: June 2010

Angola macro dataIndependent since 1975



Area: 1.246.700 km²



16m inhabitants (est. 2010)


Main language is Portuguese

macroeconomics

GDP (est.)

21,1% (2007),

13,2%(2008),

-0,6%(2009)

Local currency kwanza

1 USD / 93 kwanza (est. April 2010)

Budget:revenues: $30.82 billion

expenditures: $27.91 billion (2009 est.)

Public debt:Energy Investment Budget $1 billion / year

16.8% of GDP (2009 est.)

Inflation rate (consumer prices):13.1% (2009 est.)

1IEEJ: June 2010

Outlook for power
consumption
Consumption GWhPeak Demand / year (MW)

Only 15% of the population has access to electricity. (*Development Strategy of the Power Sector inAngola / 2007)

Low cost KW/h
Ref: Programa de Desenvolvimento do Sector de Energia 2008 - 2013

IEEJ: June 2010

Consumption per capita

220

IEEJ: June 2010

Demand Scenarios
Scenarios for Power Demand12000

THIRD SCENARIOSECOND SCENARIOFIRST SCENARIO

MW

10000
8000
6000

Expected
Supply gapof5.000MW4000
2000
0
Source: MINEA

2008

2009

2010

2011

Years

2012

2013

IEEJ: June 2010

Power capacity required increase

Power consumption per capita
Capacity increase required
KWh / People / Annual

10,0007.000 MW1,700 MW

2,000
Developed
countries
Source: IEA 2005

Emerging
countries

563

220

AfricaAngolaFYR: Japan 8,220 kWh/p/a

IEEJ: June 2010

Disconnected National Grid & 18GW hydro potential
 Disconnected national grid

Nor
Systhern
temCenSys tral Isolatedtem System
SouthernSystem

 Lack of generation capacity
 Unsatisfied demand & unstablesystem

5% of hydro potential used
900MW operation / 18GW
potential
BasinKwanza

8.199

147.738

34.746

700

9%

Queve

3.020

23.00011.78600%

Cunene2.492

128.600

6.225

412%

Catumbela

1.930

16.64010.660

493%

Longa

1.190

23.320

4.796

00%

N’gunza,
Quicombo,
Evale andBalombo

1.086

17.270

3.488

00%

Cubango350

148.860592

18.267505.428

72.293Total• see Google earth pres.

Potential
Potential Capacity Installed
Installed as % of
Capacity (MW) Basin area (km2) (GWh)
Capacity (MW) potential*source: Estratégia de Desenvolvimento do Sector Eléctrico de Angola (2002)*0%7904%

IEEJ: June 2010

Power Sector Scenario
Current installed capacity is equivalent to 1,300 MW; 60% from hydroelectric
power plants and the remaining 40% from diesel thermo-generators.
•Almost 2,000MW are supplied by small-generators or chartered diesel
thermo-generators, (estimate).
•represents a cost of more than USD 200 / KWh.
The Angolan Government expects to increase the capacity in about 5,000 MW*
to cover the non-satisfied demand.
Master Plan presented to the Council of Minister the 2010-2016 Master Plan
•Capital expenditure amounts to 17B USD over 6 years+•Focus on interconnection of the Northern, Central, Southern System•Luanda will see a 4GW capacity increase•Hydro, thermal (diesel, gas) and renewables•Progressive phasing out of lease diesel plant (Agrekko)
The main foreseen new generation projects are:
• Satelite Power•Diesel Thermoeletric Plants (100-200MW)•Mid GT•Renewable (Wind, Solar)• Giant Hydro Power• Thermal Power (Associated Gas Power, CCGT)IEEJ: June 2010

Angola: status of the powergeneration capacity
Hydro738,6 MW operational to date*
Coming on Matala (13,6), Mabubas (17,8), Lomáum (35), Bíopio (7,2), Gove (60) MW
Mini-hydro developments
Outlook 2013: 900 MW

Thermal

Above 400 MWComing onIncluding (237MW) temporary Agrekko power plants
Luanda GT (5x25MW),Cabinda GT (2x35MW)
Namibe GT (1x35MW)
Mid-speed plant in Saurimo, Luena, Kuito (approx 10MW each),

Outlook 2013: 358 MWOverall,
2932 GWh produced in 2006*

(2010-2011, 20.4551 GWh forecasted by Eskom (more than 50x) at 5,37 USD cents)

total operating capacity outlook 2013 is 1258 MW (hydro+thermal)*Programa de Desenvolvimento do Sector de Energia 2008 – 2013 + Cambambe 4thturbine

IEEJ: June 2010

Energy policy topics
Project finance culture is neededTo date: “sunk costs” that are paid for by oil revenue
Accountability
Debt/equityTargetElectricity penetration
%households access to grid (urban, 100%; peri-urban, 60%; rural 30%, by 2012)
%remaining to satellite generation
Diesel genset, solar, windkWh produced per headLong-term cost of kWh: 20-30€/MWh
Investment planning for baseload generation
Short-to-mid term
to support economic growthphasing out / increase based on fuel availability

Thermal: MINEA should make it investors-friendly for IPP players market entry
Fast roll out
low capex / high opexLong-termHydro: to secure cheap financing/availabilityLonger rollout
High capex / low opex
Energy securityBalanced exposure to each sources, within long-term opex target

Regional integration

IEEJ: June 2010

Thank you very muchfor your kind attention

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp