Roundtable

ASSESSING REGULATORY CHANGES IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
6-7 OCTOBER 2016 – STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN

Introducing competition in the European rail sector
Insights for a holistic regulatory assessment
Pr. Yves Crozet

1

Contents
1 – European Union: 25 years of policies infavour of rail development
2 – Assessment methodologies and indicators
3 – Competition is not enough….

4 – Conclusion and recommendations2

25 years of rail (de)regulation (1)• 07/1991: 1st directive on railway• 2001: 1st Railway package (TEN-T, Competitionfor international freight, licenses, rail accesscharges…)• 2001 White Book (modal shift from road to rail)• 2004: 2nd Railway package (European RailAgency, competition for national freight, safety,interoperability3

25 years of rail (de)regulation (2)• 2007: 3rd Railway package (Competition forinternational passenger services, drivers license,
Public service obligation –PSO)• 2011: White book (Development of High speed
rail and rail freight)• 2016: 4th Railway package, market pillar andtechnological pillar: competition for national
passenger services, on track (2020) and off track(2023); governance of infrastructure (bundlingvs unbundling…
45

Assessment methodologies• Input-Output analysis– Productive efficiency– Commercial efficiency• Ex Post Cost Benefit Analysis and Cost EfficiencyAnalysis• From CBA to Multi-Criteria Analysis

67

Table 1: France, labour productivity
Source: National transport accounts

Passengers – kilometres (millions)Tons-kilometres (millions)
Kilometric units (millions)
Workforce

Millions of KU per capita

1996
59 70048600
1083001805000.60

2008
82 40037 300119 7002013
92 40020 700113 100

163 000

155 400

0.73

0.73

Table 2: labour productivity in Germany (DB) and Switzerland
Source: DB and CFF
Germany

1996

Vkm (millions) 59 300
TKm (millions) 67 400
KUm (millions)126700Workforce
260000Millions of KU
per capita
0,492008

2013

Switzerland

1996

2008

77 800 88 700
113 600 104 300

Vkm (millions)Tkm (millions)
KUm (millions)

11 6007 300

18 90016 150 19 200
12 530 11 500
3028 680 700

32 00028 000 27 000

0,59

1,02

191 400 193 000

2013

Workforce
240 500 200 000
0,79

0,96

Millions of KU
per capita

81,14

Changes in British TOC own
costs,1998–2012 (%)
Pertrain-km
Staff
+32%
Payments to ROSCOs-3%
Other+14%
Total+15%(excludes payments to Network Rail)
Source for cost data: ATOC (2013)

Pervehicle-km+25%-8%+8%+9%9Traffic growth of rail traffic (Pkm)
2000-2012

Great Britain

59 %Switzerland

53 %Sweden43 %Belgium

34 %Netherlands

16 %France27 %Germany

17 %

Spain

12 %

Source: EC (2014) EU transport in figures

10

INCREASE REVENUESHigh speed rail and on track competition in Italy
Italo Passengers
129,15

10
86,264210,56,56

2,05

Italo Load Factor

02012201320142015

2016 (Est) 80%
70%60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

72%
47%

2012

51%

52%

2013

2014

2015

76%

2016 (Est)INCREASE REVENUESHigh speed rail and on track competition in Italy
Italo Revenues (in Mln)
350

308

300

249

250

262

200
150
100

835002012

2013

2014

2015

ITALO MARKET SHARE
Market Share of NTV and Trenitalia 2015
26%

74%

Trenitalia

NTVFrance – High Speed RailEx-ante and ex-post “socio-economic” IRR values

14

EU objectives for rail freight(Billion tkm)
2500
2000
1500

2010
Goal 2050

1000
5000Road

RailWaterborneRail Freight traffic Tkm
140,0
130,0120,0110,0100,0EU27
DE90,0FR

80,0SE

70,0UK

60,050,016

Rail freight liberalization

17The Makeup of the Liberalization Indices in 2011

LEX (20% of overall index)(25% in 2002, 30% in 2004, 20% in 2007)
Organizational Structure

25

Incumbents' independent status with respect to the state

5

Degree of vertical separation - network/operations

80

Degree of horizontal separation - freight/passenger
transport

15Regulation of Market Access

45

Market access regime for foreign RUs

40

Market access regime for domestic RUs

40

Legal controlled access to operational facilities

20Regulatory Authority Powers30

General aspects of the regulatory authority

30

Scope of regulation
Powers of the regulatory authority

304018

ACCESS (80% of overall index) (50% in 2002, 70% in 2004, 80% in 2007)
Information barriers
Duration for obtaining information
Quality of non-personal information provided
Quality of personal information provided
Administrative barriers
Licence
Safety certificate
Homologation of rolling stock
Operational Barriers
Track access conditions
Infrastructure charging system
Other service facilities
Share of domestic market accessible 2009
Method of awarding transport contracts
Compliance with transparency provisionsPercentage of the accessible market for RUs
Sales services in passenger transport
Rental of space ticket sales offices
Access to sales services

540
30
30
20352540
4525502525201070
55050 19

COM (not included in overall 2011 RLI)
(25% in 2002, not included in 2004, 2007 and 2011)
Modal split changes

20

Change in the modal split for rail freight transport (2001 - 2008)

40

Change in the modal split for rail passenger transport (2001 - 2008)40

Share of modal split for rail freight transport 200810

Share of modal split for rail passenger transport 2008

10

Number of external RUs 200920

Certified RUs (excl. incumbent) in relation to network length40

Ratio of active RUs to certified RUs

50

Number of active RUs providing passenger services on a regularbasis
Market share external RUs 20091060

Market share ext. RUs in terms of transport performance in %75

Increase in market share of ext. RUs between 2006 and 2009 in %2025

Degree of liberalisation and growth of rail freight traffic

Traffic growth 2003-2012

50%
40%

Germany

30%

Netherlands
Latvia20%

HungarySlovenia

10%

PolandItaly

0%
-10%

Austria
UKDenmarkSweden

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

Belgium-20%-30%

France-40%-50%-60%

Estonia
Rail Liberalisation Index 201121

Conclusion and recommendations• We need Europe-wide benchmark using traditional
indicators of productive efficiency and commercial
efficiency, but also cost benefit and cost efficiency
analysis.
• Towards a MCA of the EU process of rail
revitalization• The key role of national rail regulator to monitor
the level of tolls and rail infrastructure manager
productivity but also the market structure22