Past and Present of REDD+
M.J. Sanz
2016 International Seminar for Climate Change and Forests, Tokyo, January 2016
“The Future of REDD+ - Interpreting FREL/FRL for Post-2020 Framework”

2

The Past………………. up to Paris

3

Fear that avoiding
deforestation cheap
credits will flood theemerging offsetting
carbon markets

COP6bis Bonn
Agreement Avoiding
Deforestation notincluded in CDM

COP13 BAP
REDD
included

COP11, Montreal
Reducing emissions
from deforestationback to the COP Agenda

COP19 Warsaw
Rules andModalities for
REDD+ in place

Deforestation
represents approx..
20% GlobalEmissions, 4AR

COP6 The Hague
One of the elements that
contributed to failure: Art. 3.3, 3.4(and 12 LULUCF)

42005
COP11 (Montreal): Papua New Guinea & Cost Rica ask for a new agenda item called“Reducing Emissions from deforestation”: Launch of a two-year process
2006
COP12 (Nairobi): Agreement on a second workshop

2008

COP13 (Bali): Bali Action Plan: Non-Annex I Parties to undertake measurable, reportable &verifiable NAMAs; REDD+ activities introduced; guidance on demonstration activities
COP14 (Poznan): Paving the way for COP15...

2009
COP15 (Copenhagen): Methodological guidance on REDD+ activities, including: nationalforest monitoring systems required to estimate GHGs from forestry activities
2010

2011

COP16 (Cancun): Cancun Agreements: guidance on implementation of REDD+ activities,including: national forest monitoring systems required to monitor and report on REDD+activities
COP17 (Durban): Guidance on forest reference emission levels and forest reference levels
for REDD+ activities and on systems for providing information on REDD+ safeguards

2012

2013

COP18 (Doha): Work Prog/ on results base finance under the COP to be resumed at COP19/ Coordination of support SBSTA/SBI / initiation of work on non-market approaches andmethodological guidance for non-C benefits

2014

COP19 (Warsaw): Warsaw Framework: Guidance completed for FRELs/FRLs, and NFMS;
more guidance on SIS and MRV and Drivers / Provisions for result-base finance andcoordination of support
COP20 (Lima) Lima call for action (Sept 2015 UN Climate Summit – Forest NY Declar.)2015

REDD+ Provisions, Rules and Modalities
Provided through decisions

2007

COP21 (Paria): Safeguards information summary guidance decision. Paris Agreement Article51/CP.13 (para 1 biii) BAP

Meth GL
indicative
And other provisions
Meth GL
Initial guidance
The FW Decision
Other Provisions

REDD+ Rule Book!

Meth GL
rules and modalities

Other Provisions

Meth GL
rules and modalities

x/CP.21 Guidance summary of information on safeguards

Other Provisions
Meth GL
rules and modalities

6Relatedprocesses

REDD+building
blocksandGuidance

Nat Com

GHGs Inv

Iversen 2014

Basis for implementation……
Basis for the future…..
7National Strategyor Action Plan
PHASE 1CB, devel. NS/APPAMs

National
Strategy orAction Plan

NFMS

SIS

FRELs/FRLs

SISFRELs/FRLs

SNFMF

SNFMS

PHASE 2
Implement. NS/AP, PAMs
Demonstration activities(incl. result base payments)

National
Strategy orAction Plan

SIS

SNFMS

National
Strategy or
Action Plan

PHASE 3Full implementation
Result based payments

National
Strategy or
Action Plan

FRELs
/FRLs

FRELs/
FRLs
SIS

NFMS

SIS

FRELs/FRLs

Capacity building andtechnical assistance• 1/CP.16, p2 (CB and TA to improve, data collection, estimation) p78 (invites
organizations / stakehol. to support the 4 elements) p76 (Parties support)• 4/CP.15 p5• 1/CP.16 p73, p76, Annex1• 10/CP.19 p3d• 13/CP.19 p6 (development and assessment RLs• 14/CP.19 p14d (CB needs in the BURs annex)

Coordination of supportand RB finance• 4/CP.15 (secretariat to enhance coordination of the CB IPCC GL)• 1/CP.16 (Parties to coordinate when supporting the 4 elements of CA)• 1/CP.18 p29c, p34 (need and ways improve the coordination of results-basedfinance?)• 9/CP.19 several references to coordination RB finance (p6,7), SC on Financeforum (p20)• 10/CP.19 p1 (full implementation, including other approach) p3 (functions ofEntities related to coordination of support) p9 (COP23 consider if alternative
governance for coordination of support is needed)

Result base payments forresults of theimplementation of activities• 1/CP.16 p73 ( phases - results-based demonstration activities, and evolving into
results-based actions) p77 (LCA to explore finance RB)• 2/CP.17 p64 (RB to be MRV) p65 (variety of sources, additional. Predictable)
p66,67 (markets and non markets ref) p68 (encourage financial org)
• 1/CP.18 (work programme on results base finance)• 9/CP.19 (some means and institutions identified, inlc. GCF, information Hub,
Standing Committee on Finance to explore)

Long road from Bali to Paris…
 Full set of decisions guiding countries fromreadiness towards piloting.
 Many actors supporting readiness, from NGOs,
bilateral cooperation, multilateral initiatives Coordination challenge still exist.
 Longer processes than expected, overlapping
phases. Managing expectations.

Yet financing to come for implementation…
10

The Present………. Status by 201611

How countries approach…
RELs/RLs

12

Present of REDD+ - Emerging Challenge•Consistency across different potential scales ofimplementation is becoming a challenge(national, sub-national, project levels).
•Consistency and credibility of estimates for RELs/RLs(historic data vs present and future data, GHGs inv)
•Assessment of adjustments, national circumstances
understanding and substantiation…. Challenges observed while countries are constructing
their RELs/RLs, and during the TAs.
Next to come the TAs of their BURs and new GHGs
inventories in parallel to the improvements of their RELs/RLs13

Diversity of approaches……
CountryScale

ScopeAdjustment

BrazilAmazon biome

Def.

N

Colombia

Amazon biome

Def.

Y

EcuadorNational(excl. small islands, e.g.
Galapagos and others)

Def.

N

GuyanaNationalDef./Deg.

Y

Malaysia

National, but only
permanent forestedreserves

SMF

N

MexicoNational

Def.

N

14

Pools included ……
Country

Deadwood

AGB

BGB

BrazilX

X

Colombia

X

X

Ecuador

X

X

X

X

Defor.

X

X

X

X

Degrad.

X

X

X

Malaysia

X

X

MexicoX

X

GuyanaLitterSoil
Carbon

(HWP)

X

X
X

X
X*

X*

15

Periods……
Historical periodused in FREL/FRL construction

Change assessments(data points)

1996-2005 (for 2006-2010 FREL)

7 (for 2006-2010 FREL)

1996-2010 (for 2011-2015 FREL)

12 (for 2011-2015 FREL)

Colombia

2000-2012

6Ecuador

2000-2008

1Guyana

2001-2012

Country

BrazilMalaysia

Mexico5 (for AD deforestation)
11 (for AD degradation)

1990-2005 (for 2006-2010 FREL)

2 (for 2006-2010 FREL)

1990-2010 (for 2011-2015 FREL)

3 (for 2011-2015 FREL)

2000-2010

3 (for deforestation)
10 (for fire)16

Two main activities selected, methods……
Mainly through RS for deforestation
No common approach yet for degradation, several
countries experimenting
Deforestation:

Degradation:••••••Medium-resolution
imagery (Landsat)
High-resolution imagery
Land registry (cadaster)•High-resolution imagery
Testing Landsat-NDVI combination
Timber records or management plans(volume harvested, species, collateral
damage, skid trails, …)
Fuelwood extraction statistics

17

Where developing countries are…
 Most countries undergoing readinessactivities (up to 60 countries progressing atdifferent speed) Many countries developing National
REDD+ strategies
 Some countries with more define strategies
and moving towards demonstration
activities or implement and RBPs (e.gBrazil, Mexico, Ecuador, Viet Nam,Guyana)18

Where developing countries are on NMFS and RELs/RLs
 Many countries developed NFMS or havepartially developed the essential elements
 6 Countries with the 1st REL/RL reviewed(Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico,Guyana, Malaysia)
 9 new RELs/RLs submissions sent of
expected by end Jan 2016 (Vietnam, Peru,Chile, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Rep. Congo,Zambia, Cambodia)

19

Where countries are on reporting to access RBPs
 One ready for the GCF payments (Brazil,reporting 2.9 Billion tones 1st BUR, REDD+Annex)
 2 to 3 expecting to send the 1st BUR
REDD+ Annex in 2016 Few countries with other visions, suchbroader sustainable development (Gabon)and joint adaptation and mitigation
approach (Bolivia)

All struggling with the investment gap…
20

Amount of FinanceNot a single standard solution, need to adapt to country
situations….
Cumulativeemission
reductions

Result based climate finance
Climate finance (investment)
General finance for sustainable land use
General finance for activities leading todeforestation/degradation
TAto match demand of finance to achieve sustainable results….

What REDD+ resulted in….

Complexity andintegration
Changes in mindsets
22But …. Moreparticipation,planning andintegration

Realities still today…
23

Other issues pending Stronger verification provisions if markets are usefor RBPs?
 Issues referred to methodological issues related tonon-carbon benefits resulting from theimplementation of REDD-plus?
 Methodological guidance for JAM…?
 New issues from Paris mitigation articles?

The Future25

September 2015

13 Climate Action

REDD+ pieceContext
The Global Goals provide the broad context for Climate Action. Multilateral
Climate Change Agreements provide objectives, means and guidance toachieve the ultimate goal of the UNFCCC. REDD+ represents one piece…

26

Opportunity towards the future…
Developing Countries are seriously considering
at this stage their potential to contribute tomitigation of Climate Change in the context of
their INDCs, and the Paris Agreement endorsed
this process.
Emerging question

How REDD+ is going to be used to increase theglobal level of ambition in this context?
27

REDD+…. One of the fragments of the Land Use Sector

LULUCF

MITIGATION ACTIVITIESREDD+•KP 3.3, 3.4• FM• CM• GM• Re-vegetation•

WL activities•

CDM AR•REDD+ 5 activities

10 views on the future of REDD+(http://blog.cifor.org/37888/

So what’s next for REDD+? Ten experts from across the globe give their take

REDD+ is just one tool in the toolbox for tackling climate change. We’re in the real building phase now, we’repast the hype—we need to get past the disillusionment and start doing the hard work. Louis Verchot

We have everything we need now to make REDD+ work. Nur Masripatin
Now we have a combined challenge of uncertain returns on the carbon investments, complicated engineering ofREDD+ actions, and a complex policy context with multiple priorities. Peter Holmgren
A $5 carbon price is nothing compared with other traditional development opportunities in forest areas. So we are trying to combine
approaches for generating resources—domestic funding, development assistance, as well as results-based REDD+ payments.
Yitebitu Moges Abebe
If we understand REDD+ as a national mechanism that can be inserted into the broader management of large landscapes—
including agricultural activities that are usually the main drivers of deforestation—and in which countries develop a variety of public policies,
measures and actions to address deforestation, the future of REDD+ is very interesting. Gustavo Suarez De Freitas Calmet
The evidence that protecting forests is actually a good idea from a green growth, “enlightened self-interest” perspective is also far stronger
today than it was in 2008. A number of tropical forest countries are realizing that and acting on it. Pharo Per Fredrik Ilsaas
If there is payment for the results presented, I expect that more countries will engage in REDD+. Thelma KrugREDD+ will have to evolve toward broader land use and agriculture issues, and link in with issues of adaptation and food security
while enhancing forests as a storehouse of carbon and ecosystem services. Martin Herold
We will see a “race to the top” among states, provinces and nations, each seeking to attract investment and gain full access tomarkets. Dan Nepstad
The way forward is for forested countries to assume a stronger role and ownership in the implementation of REDD+, and to incorporate it
into their INDCs and in their domestic emission targets. Arild Angelsen29

10 views on the future of REDD+
So what’s next for REDD+? Ten experts from across the globe give their take

REDD+ is just one tool in the toolbox for tackling climate change. We’re in the real building phase now, we’repast the hype—we need to get past the disillusionment and start doing the hard work. Louis Verchot

We have everything we need now to make REDD+ work. Nur Masripatin
Now we have a combined challenge of uncertain returns on the carbon investments, complicated engineering ofREDD+ actions, and a complex policy context with multiple priorities. Peter HolmgrenArethe views
that far apart?

A $5 carbon price is nothing compared with other traditional development opportunities in forest areas. So we are trying to combine
approaches for generating resources—domestic funding, development assistance, as well as results-based REDD+ payments.
Yitebitu Moges Abebe
If we understand REDD+ as a national mechanism that can be inserted into the broader management of large landscapes—
including agricultural activities that are usually the main drivers of deforestation—and in which countries develop a variety of public policies,
measures and actions to address deforestation, the future of REDD+ is very interesting. Gustavo Suarez De Freitas Calmet
The evidence that protecting forests is actually a good idea from a green growth, “enlightened self-interest” perspective is also far stronger
today than it was in 2008. A number of tropical forest countries are realizing that and acting on it. Pharo Per Fredrik Ilsaas
If there is payment for the results presented, I expect that more countries will engage in REDD+. Thelma Krug
REDD+ will have to evolve toward broader land use and agriculture issues, and link in with issues of adaptation and food security
while enhancing forests as a storehouse of carbon and ecosystem services. Martin Herold
We will see a “race to the top” among states, provinces and nations, each seeking to attract investment and gain full access tomarkets. Dan Nepstad
The way forward is for forested countries to assume a stronger role and ownership in the implementation of REDD+, and to incorporate it
into their INDCs and in their domestic emission targets. Arild Angelsen30

10 views on the future of REDD+(http://blog.cifor.org/37888/

So what’s next for REDD+? Ten experts from across the globe give their take

REDD+ is just one tool in the toolbox for tackling climate change. We’re in the real building phase now, we’repast the hype—we need to get past the disillusionment and start doing the hard work. Louis Verchot

We have everything we need now to make REDD+ work. Nur Masripatin
Now we have a combined challenge of uncertain returns on the carbon investments, complicated engineering ofREDD+ actions, and a complex policy context with multiple priorities. Peter Holmgren
A $5 carbon price is nothing compared with other traditional development opportunities in forest areas. So we are trying to combine
approaches for generating resources—domestic funding, development assistance, as well as results-based REDD+ payments.
Yitebitu Moges Abebe

Probably not !

If we understand REDD+ as a national mechanism that can be inserted into the broader management of large landscapes—
including agricultural activities that are usually the main drivers of deforestation—and in which countries develop a variety of public policies,
measures and actions to address deforestation, the future of REDD+ is very interesting. Gustavo Suarez De Freitas Calmet
The evidence that protecting forests is actually a good idea from a green growth, “enlightened self-interest” perspective is also far stronger
today than it was in 2008. A number of tropical forest countries are realizing that and acting on it. Pharo Per Fredrik Ilsaas
If there is payment for the results presented, I expect that more countries will engage in REDD+. Thelma Krug
REDD+ will have to evolve toward broader land use and agriculture issues, and link in with issues of adaptation and food security
while enhancing forests as a storehouse of carbon and ecosystem services. Martin Herold

But how to achieve long term mitigation goals………..

We will see a “race to the top” among states, provinces and nations, each seeking to attract investment and gain full access tomarkets. Dan Nepstad
The way forward is for forested countries to assume a stronger role and ownership in the implementation of REDD+, and to incorporate it

into their INDCs and in their domestic emission targets. Arild Angelsen

31When dealing with lands,
governments look for best
options…
The tools are not so differentof what is promoted thanks toREDD+:-Inventories (NFI)-Land cover and use maps…. layers of useful information

to attribute in the overall planning the most suitable
use for the land according to their priorities:
protection, forestry, agriculture, urban, etc.

32Diversity of approaches…… (different priorities]……….Similar goal

33

Present towards future of REDD+
Immediate challenge to achieve the goal

REDD+ is moving towards piloting andimplementation in many countries…..
•Consistency across different potential scales of implementation isbecoming a challenge, needs to be considered at early stages ofdesign (national, sub-national, project levels).
• REDD+ not linear, more a cycle, step wise approach (i.e MRV).
Timing and scale of finance matters to country processes anddifferences.
•Paris provided a broader context, domestically there is a need toensure REDD+ this will contribute to sustainable land use if longterm mitigations is aimed.

34

What Paris brings to REDD+

FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

 Article 5 on REDD+ signals political support for theexisting internationally agreed REDD+ framework Need of reporting and principles for accounting foremissions reductions ensure transparency andimprovement over time for forests and other sectors(Article 4 and 13)
 The agreement overall strengthens efforts on
mitigation (Article 4), finance (Article 9), andprovide room for considering markets (Article 6),three important elements for REDD+35

FCCC/CP/2015/L.9

Article 5
1.Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirsof greenhouse gases as referred to in Article 4, paragraph 1(d), of the Convention, including
forests.
2. Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support, including throughresults-based payments, the existing framework as set out in related guidance and decisions
already agreed under the Convention for: policy approaches and positive incentives for
activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and therole of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
stocks in developing countries; and alternative policy approaches, such as joint mitigation
and adaptation approaches for the integral and sustainable management of forests, while
reaffirming the importance of incentivizing, as appropriate, non-carbon benefits associatedwith such approaches.

36ありがとう森林

are important!
37