The Genron NPO

ANALYSIS PAPER:
The 17th Joint Public Opinion Poll

Japan-China Public Opinion Survey 2021

In Cooperation With:
Japan: Public Opinion Research Center
China: The China International Publishing Group(CIPG), Horizon Research Consultancy Group

October, 2021

The Genron NPO |2021

THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Impact of the US-China Conflict on Chinese Public Opinion
Analysis of the Japan-China Joint Public Opinion Poll 2021

Yasushi Kudo
President
The Genron NPO

In October 2021, The Genron NPO released the results of our 17th annual survey of public opinion in
Japan and China, and one noteworthy result of the survey is the Chinese people’s rapidly worsening
impression of Japan and the Japan-China relationship over the past year. The sudden reversal of theimpression of Japan among respondents in China, which had been continuously improving, is thefirst such reversal since the 2013 survey eight years ago, when there was a flare-up of tensions
arising from the Senkaku Islands dispute. It is also the first time in five years that Chinese opinion of
the Japan-China relationship has worsened.
Meanwhile, Japanese opinions of China have continued to deteriorate over the last few years, andthis year showed no change in that trend. In addition, respondents in both countries believe that the
US-China conflict is having an adverse effect on the relationship between Japan and China, andthere is an increased feeling of anxiety and alienation concerning military activity by and disputes
with the other country. One other peculiarity of this most recent survey is that regardless ofworsening opinions, people in both countries still have high expectations for the future of theJapan-China relationship, and in fact have an increased desire for closer cooperation.

No diplomatic activity or dialogue between the two countries
over past year has left citizens feeling anxious
The rapid worsening of opinion among Chinese respondents can be understood from two graphs
below that illustrate changes in opinion over the last 16 years of conducting polls.
First, Figure 1 shows change of opinion over time of the current Japan-China relationship in bothcountries, and it can be seen that Chinese respondents who see the relationship as poor increased by
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

20 points over the last year from 22.6% to 42.6%. This is the first downturn in six years since that
number had begun to drop in 2016.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Japanese respondents calling the relationship poor has been increasing
since 2018, and that trend continued this year, now reaching 54.6% of Japanese respondents.
100%

90%

90%
80%

74%

72%

69%

80%

75%

83%
67%

78%
64%
72%

72%

70%
60%

55%

53%
41%

50%

55%

54%
46%

54%

20%

29%
21%

11%

25% 25%
13%
10%
4%

7%

13%

15%

2%
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10%
0%

52%
32%

37%

40%
30%

Japanese: Progressing well

55%

67%

54%

41%
15%

22%
19%

9%

7%

2011

2012

6%
2% 1%

2010

45% 45%43%
39% 36%
34%
23%
30%
23%
12% 14%
22%
7% 9%
11%
7%
3%
2%
2%
3%
45%

43%

2013

Japanese: Progressing poorly

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Chinese: Progressing well

2019

2020

2021

Chinese: Progressing poorly

Figure 1: How do you feel current Japan-China relations are progressing?

Next, Figure 2 clearly shows a worsened impression of Japan in China, with 66.1% of Chinese
respondents answering that their impression of Japan is poor, a year-on-year increase of 14 points
from 52.9%. The ratio of Japanese respondents answering that their impression of China as a country
is “poor” has been increasing since 2019, and now stands at 90.9%.

93%

100%
90%

76%

80%
70%

63%

57%

38%

37%

36%

40%
30%
20%
10%

41%
27%

15%

72%

66%

90%

87%

89%

92%

78%

77%

88%

33%
24%

15%

12%

12%

2005

2006

24%

33%
27%

86%

56%
42%

38%
29%

32%

27%
21%

10%

11%

5%

7%

2013

2014

21%

22%

11%

8%

16%
2012

91%
90%
66%

53%
46%

32%

0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Japanese: Good impression of China

85%

67%

65%

65% 56%

60%
50%

73%

66%

78%

93%

84%

Chinese: Good impression of Japan

2015

12%

13%

53%
45%
32%

15%
10%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Japanese: Poor impression of China
Chinese: Poor impression of Japan

Figure 2: Impression of the other country – Survey data from 2005 to 2021

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9%
2021

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

There are a number of reasons behind these changes. What first needs to be understood is that withexchange between the two countries essentially having dropped to zero, media organizations in eachcountry are having a greater influence, and it is possible that the content of what is being reported isnegatively impacting people’s feelings toward the other country.
That trend can sometimes be particularly strong in China. One reason for the annual improvement in
impressions of Japan among Chinese people was the fact that tourism from China to Japan had
rapidly increased, and people’s experiences in Japan were spread in China through mobile phones
and other devices. This year, that effect was essentially non-existent. With the spread of COVID-19,
the number of visitors to Japan in 2020 dropped to 1.07 million, roughly 10% of the peak in 2019,and 2021 was no different. A similar drop in Japanese visitors to China has been seen.
Moreover, the conflict between the US and China has increased uneasiness in both countries, andpeople in each country are experiencing an increased sense of security threat from the other country.
Nevertheless, neither country’s government has made any diplomatic overtures or engaged indialogue, so the last year has been one of anxiety for people in both Japan and China.
These issues have resulted in the people of both countries deeming the current Japan-China
relationship “poor”. That can be seen in the question about what issues are hindering thedevelopment of the Japan-China relationship (Figure 3), to which the response “lack of political trust
between both the Chinese and Japanese governments” saw the highest increase in the previous yearwith 10.4% more Chinese respondents selecting it. Among Japanese respondents, 39.6% answeredthat the two governments do not have a relationship based in trust.

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Japanese Public Opinion

Chinese Public Opinion
0%

60%

40%

20%

No trust between Japanese andChinese peoples

33.0%
32.0%

24.8%
20.0%

No political trust between two
governments

29.3%
18.9%

Conflict over maritime
resources

Conflict over maritime
resources

23.9%
26.5%

62.4%
55.2%

Economic friction (e.g. trade,tech transfer, IP rights, etc.)

17.1%
20.0%

Japan-US alliance andstrengthening Japan's military
powerJapan-US alliance andstrengthening Japan's military
power

19.5%
10.6%

17.4%
21.3%

Current state of the US-China
conflict

Current state of the China-US
conflict

20.4%
15.0%

Strengthening of Chinese
military power

Economic friction (e.g. trade,tech transfer, IP rights, etc.)

12.6%
14.0%

2.8%
3.7%

3.3%
3.8%

12.7%
12.9%

4.5%
4.2%

15.3%
13.8%

1.8%
1.1%

6.2%
7.1%

3.7%
1.8%

15.6%
11.6%

60%

19.1%
18.5%

Territorial conflict (e.g. Senkaku
Islands)

Territorial conflict (e.g. Senkaku
Islands)

56.7%
60.4%

2020 (N=1000)40%

No trust between Chinese andJapanese peoples

No political trust between two
governments

39.6%
39.3%

2021 (N=1000)

20%

0%

3.1%
27.8%

Strengthening of Chinese
military power

8.5%
6.0%

Japanese nationalism and antiChina sentiments

Japanese nationalism and antiChina sentiments

9.1%
7.3%

Chinese nationalism and antiJapan sentiments

Chinese nationalism and antiJapan sentiments

3.7%
4.5%

Japan's recognition of its history
and its education

Japan's recognition of its
history and its education

China's recognition of its history
and its education

China's recognition of its history
and its education

2.1%
5.5%

Inappropriate behavior by
Japanese politicians regarding
China

Inappropriate behavior by
Japanese politicians

4.3%
3.8%

Inappropriate behavior by
Chinese politicians

Inappropriate behavior by
Chinese politicians

0.3%
1.0%

Anti-China coverage inJapanese media

Anti-China coverage inJapanese media

2.8%
3.4%

2021
(N=1547)

Anti-Japan coverage in Chinese
media

Anti-Japan coverage in
Chinese media

0.6%
0.4%

2020
(N=1571)

13.8%
13.3%

Figure 3: What issues are hindering the development of the Japan-China relationship?
The mutual deterioration in opinion about each other’s country has been influenced by the complete
lack of direct interaction and inter-governmental activity between the people of the two countries.
However, we also see the appearance of a new factor.

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

This year’s survey found a striking increase among Chinese respondents who answered that they
have concerns regarding “inappropriate statements and behavior on the part of some (Japanese)politicians” with a 8.7-point rise from 12.3% to 21% (Figure 4).
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

77.5%
74.1%

Japan hasn't properly reflected on or apologized for its invasion of China
23.0%
19.7%

Japan working with the US to hem China in militarily, economically, and ideologically

58.7%
53.3%

Japan caused conflict by nationalizing Uotsuri and surrounding islands
Inappropriate statements/behavior by some Japanese politicians

12.3%

Japan's negative attitude towards the One China policy

11.2%
6.9%

Cannot understand why Japan is following US diplomatic policy
Japanese media is pushing the threat of China

21.0%

8.3%
11.8%
16.6%

Intense Japanese nationalism

6.8%
8.7%

Japan only interested in economic interests, not serious about bilateral relations

4.5%
8.4%

Japan is arrogant and looks down on the Chinese people

9.2%
9.5%

Political systems of the two countries are different

3.8%
6.3%

Miliaristic trends arising in some parts of Japanese society

6.8%
7.5%

2021 (N=1022)
2020 (N=831)

Figure 4: Reasons for poor impression of Japan among Chinese people
The Chinese section of the survey was conducted between August 25 and September 25 this year.
Looking at Chinese domestic media reports from just before that period, the news had broken a
Japanese cabinet minister had visited Yasukuni Shrine. Media outlets were discussing and heavily
criticizing the possibility of an individual openly declaring their intention to continue visiting
Yasukuni Shrine when that individual could become the next Prime Minister in the election forpresident of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Among Chinese respondents, many in their 20s and 40s felt a worsening in their impression of Japan,
however, a large percentage of people in those two age groups selected the behavior of Japanesepoliticians as the underlying reason for their poor impression of Japan, suggesting that this has
become another factor.

Chinese are looking to Russia, but have no leadership expectations
This year’s survey revealed the impact of the conflict between the US and China on the opinions of
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

people in China and Japan from various perspectives.
First, as Figure 5 shows, 61.9% of Chinese respondents stated that the conflict was having adeleterious impact on the Japan-China relationship (from 52.1% last year), with 54.7% of Japanese
respondents answering the same (from 44.4% last year), an approximately 10-point annual rise inboth survey groups.
Japanese Public Opinion
2021 (N=1000)

E
0.2%

Chinese Public Opinion

A
1.8%

2021 (N=1547)

E
0.0%
D
20.0%

D
37.3%

A
8.3%

C
9.8%

B
54.7%

B
61.9%

C
6.0%

Figure 5: Impact of the U.S.-China tension on Japan-China relations
Anxiety regarding the US-China friction is driving a major transformation in the Chinese
consciousness. For example, the overwhelming majority of Japanese respondents at 59.4% statedthat they believe the most important country for their own country’s future is the US. In comparison,
more than half of Chinese respondents at 50.8% selected Russia as the most important country, amore than 10-point rise over last year’s 39.6%.
Chinese respondents selecting the US stood at 22.4%, a relatively insubstantial change over the
23.6% selecting the US last year. That being said, while more than half of Chinese respondents see
Russia as important, that did not necessarily lead to any expectations regarding Russian leadership in
stabilizing the international order in the future. Regarding that topic, many Chinese respondents still
expect the US to play a leading role.
In response to the question about who should be taking a leadership role in maintaining futurestability within the international order (Figure 6), 74.9% of Chinese respondents selected their own
country, China, and 47.6% selected the US. Russia was selected by 23.2% of respondents, and only
7.2% selected “China and Russia.”

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0%

THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

20%

40%

60%

80%

China

74.9%

USA

47.6%

Russia23.2%

China &
Russia7.2%

USA & China

6.3%

EU

6.1%

Japan

2.7%

G7

2.7%

G20

2.2%

2021 (N=1547)

Figure 6: Countries/regions that the Chinese people feel should take a leadership role inmaintaining the stability of the international orderWith the continued tension between the US and China, Japan’s waning
influence is reducing its presence in the minds of Chinese citizens
Here we focus on Chinese people’s awareness of Japan. In the 2018 survey, 18.2% of Chinese
respondents selected Japan as the country that had the most important relationship with their own.
However, that was the highest Japan ever reached in this question, and it has continued to drop withthis year’s percentage being half that of last year at 5.8%.
In addition, while 70.9% of Chinese respondents still believe the relationship with Japan is important(Figure 7), the number of respondents who believe it is unimportant rose from 9.3% last year to22.4% this year. This is the highest ratio for this response since it reached 24% during the Senkaku
Islands dispute in 2013. In contrast, 66.4% of Japanese respondents see the relationship with China
as important, a slight increase from 64.2% last year.

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

100%
90%
80%

87%
77%

70%

73%
71%

60%

90%

80% 82%

74%

93%
83%
82%

78%

80%
78%

67%

74%

74% 71%
72%
65%

71%

72%

74%

69% 71%

70% 70%

73%
67%

75%

71%

64%

66%

50%
40%

24%

30%
20%

8%

10%

4%

4%

4%

3%
2%

2005

2006

2007

2008

10%
0%

Japanese：Important

5%

15%

16%

3%

3%
1%

4%

3%

2009

2010

2011

2012

Chinese：Important

19%

22%

20%
14%

12%

15%
9%

9%

6%

8%

7%

6%

5%

3%

4%

4%

5%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Japanese：Not important

Chinese：Not important

Figure 7: Importance of Japan-China Relations – Survey data from 2005 to 2021
Asked which country would expand its influence over the next decade (Figure 8), 92.4% of Chinese
respondents answered that their own country would increase its influence, while 13.8% selected
Japan, and only 11.7% selected the US. In fact, 48.1% – the most common answer – believe that US
influence will fall.

Think influence will increase
0%

20%

China

60%

80%

100%

92.4%

Russia

41.8%

Japan

13.8%

India

12.5%

USA

11.7%

ROK

40%

8.2%

Figure 8: Countries that the Chinese people think will increase their influence over the next
decadeThe slight decline in the importance of Japan to the Chinese people is thought to be a reaction to
Japan’s increased cooperation with the US as it clashes with China, and Japan’s lack of
distinctiveness and loss of influence in Asia. Another factor is thought to be that it hides behind the
US in policy-making, making it difficult for Chinese people to see what Japan is doing. The impactof the US-China conflict has drastically reduced Chinese affinity towards the US over the last year,
but when comparing the importance of the Japan-China and US-China relationships, the percentage
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

of Chinese people seeing the Japan-China relationship as more important has halved from 14.8% lastyear to 7.4%, while the US-China relationship is seen as more important to slightly more people thanlast year, rising from 22.2% to 25%.

Increased threat from Japan rooted in US-Japan attempts to hem in China
Here we clarify what people in both countries think about the US-China conflict and where theirconcerns lie.
First, 81.8% of Chinese people see the US as the cause of the conflict between the US and China, a
percentage that remains unchanged since last year. In comparison, 43.8% of Japanese respondents
see both China and the US as being at fault, this being the most selected answer, with the next
highest being China at 32.8%. Those selecting China rose 10 points from 23.2% last year.
Regarding the future of the US-China conflict, fewer people in both countries answered
optimistically that they believe it will be resolved soon. More took the pessimistic view that theconflict will be prolonged, with 31.9% of Chinese respondents and 23.4% of Japanese respondents
selecting that response, making it the most selected answer in both countries.
However, less than 10% in either country see the conflict overall as being on the same scale as a“new Cold War.” There is a slight difference in temperament regarding the impact of the US-China
conflict on the world order, with 50.6% of Chinese respondents expecting that US-China cooperation
will recover or that the two countries will be able to co-exist under common rules even if the conflictcontinues. This demonstrates a slightly more optimistic take than in Japan, where 39.3% of
respondents selected the same answers. Also, while 22.4% of Chinese respondents answered “I don’tknow” regarding the impact, 32.8% of those in Japan answered the same.
It is in national security that people’s anxiety is rising in respect to the structure of the US-China
conflict. The widespread view in China is that as the conflict continues, Japan will cooperate
militarily with the US.
In both Japan and China, we do not see a dramatic increase since last year in the percentages ofpeople who answered that they see another country as a military threat (Figure 8), with 68.9% inJapan and 51.1% in China, but in both countries, the sense of overall threat felt towards the othercountry has increased. In Japan, 70.5% of people see China as a threat, an increase over 63.4% lastyear. This is the first time this response has passed 70% since the question was introduced in 2015,
and it is close to the 76.6% of people who see North Korea as a threat.
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

In last year’s survey, there was a large drop in people who saw Japan as a threat, this number having
fallen to 47.9%, but this has rebounded this year, with the percentage now at 61.3%.
Japanese Public Opinion
80%

60%

40%

20%

70.5%
63.4%
12.5%
13.4%
76.5%
81.0%
32.1%
30.6%
2021

2020

7.4%
11.2%

Chinese Public Opinion
0%

0%

20%

China

Japan

ROK

ROK

10.7%
6.4%

DPRK

DPRK

3.5%
8.0%

RussiaRussia

USA

USA

40%

60%

47.9%

80%

61.3%

2021

2020

9.0%
15.4%
81.0%
84.1%

Figure 8: Which country is a threat? (Among respondents who see another country as a threat)
The most selected reasons why Japanese people see an increased threat in China were China’s
incursions into territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands, etc. and the strength of Chinese
military power, following by the lack of clear information from China, and a lack of understandingof China’s objectives (Figure 9).
Meanwhile in China, the idea that Japan is cooperating with the US to hem in China was the mostselected reason for the increased sense of threat from Japan at 70.3%, an increase from 64.9% last
year.

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Japanese Public Opinion
80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

56.6%

China already has a strong military

50.7%
38.3%
42.7%

China continues to build its military power and reason is unclear

43.2%
46.0%

China's military power is unclear, too little information

42.4%
39.4%

China has nuclear weapons
China has a large number of missiles deployed to cover Japan andother regions

33.1%
32.4%
13.2%
18.1%

China has an aircraft carrier

71.4%
71.6%

China often violates Japanese territorial waters
Japan and China are engaged in conflict over Senkaku Islands andmaritime resources

50.4%
54.0%

2021 (N=486)

2020 (N=454)

China taking aggressive posture in East China Sea, etc. by converting
atolls to military bases

48.8%
48.2%

China is strengthening the leadership framework in the Communist
Party

34.8%
39.9%

Chinese Public Opinion
0%

20%

40%

60%

70.3%

Japan cooperates militarily with the US to hem China in

64.9%

27.8%

Japanese defence policy clearly places China as apotential enemy

25.7%

Although Japan started a war of aggression, it still denies
and conceals historical facts, and reflection and remorse
are fading

37.9%
45.8%

Japan has occupired Diaoyu and surroundings islands fora long period, and does not recognize the territorial
disputeThe Japanese government is making real moves toward
amending the peace clause in the Constitution

80%

40.2%
37.7%

8.9%
6.8%

Parts of Japan are aiming to rebuild Japan as a military
power

12.8%
2021 (N=485)

13.1%

Figure 9. Reason for perceiving military threat in other country

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2020 (N=382)

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Finally, the percentage of people who see the Taiwan Strait as a potential hotspot for military conflictin East Asia has rapidly increased over the last year, rising to 13.4% of Japanese respondents (from6.6% last year) and 39.6% of Chinese respondents (from 35.6% last year.) However, when asked ifthey believe that conflict in the region is imminent, those who answered in the affirmative stood at
30.1% in China and 22% in Japan. While that is an increase over the numbers in Japan for last year
(at 18.6%), it shows a drop in China (from 34.4%).

People in both countries still have expectations for bilateralrelations even with the ongoing US-China conflict
The conflict between the US and China has led to increased anxiety and tension, but although thesituation remains unstable, respondents in both countries still have expectations for future
Japan-China relations and cooperation between the two countries. This is another characteristic of
this survey that has appeared from the many questions asked.
For example, one question (Figure 10) asked whether Japan and China should build a new
relationship based in cooperation in order to stabilize the world economy and bring peace to East
Asia. An overwhelming majority of Chinese respondents, 70.6%, answered yes, and this answer was
also most selected in Japan at 42.8%.
Japanese Public Opinion
2021 (N=1000)

Chinese Public Opinion
2021 (N=1547)

DE
A そう思う
6.0% 0.2%

E
0.8%

B そう思わないD
18.8%

C C どちらともいえない
17.1%

A
42.8%
C
30.4%

D わからない

B
6.1%

E 無回答

A
70.6%

B
7.2%

Figure 10. Should a new partnership be built in order to achieve a stable order?

Asked whether Japan-China economic cooperation would be important for the future of their own
country, 75.4% of Chinese respondents and 69.8% of Japanese respondents answered in theaffirmative.
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

A majority of people in both countries agree that Japan and China should cooperate in handling
Asian issues, at 56.5% in Japan and 76.2% in China. They are also in agreement about thechallenges that the two countries should work together to face for the future of East Asia. Peace andcooperative development were the two most commonly selected goals that people in both countries
feel that Japan and China should share and work to achieve. In Japan, 53.8% of respondents selected
peace, with 54.6% selecting peace in China, while cooperative development was selected by 33.1%
and 55.8% of Japanese and Chinese respondents respectively.
In Japan, the top three perspectives seen as being needed to avoid conflict and achieve sustainable
peace in Asia (Figure 11) were “peaceful co-existence” at 45.7%, “anti-nuclear weapons” at 37.9%,
and “anti-war” at 37.6%. In China, “anti-hegemony” stood at 53.2%, “peaceful co-existence” at 52%,
and “accident prevention” at 47.2%. This year’s survey revealed that although the situation in
Northeast Asia is tense, people in both China and Japan hope the two countries can achieve peacefulco-existence, prevent accidents, and avoid war.
Japanese Public Opinion
60%

40%

20%

13.1%
14.1%
37.6%
39.1%

13.6%
13.6%
37.9%
41.2%
45.7%
48.0%
27.4%
25.0%
2020 (N=1000)

0%

0%

20.0%
17.5%

20%

40%

60%

47.2%
41.6%

Accident prevention

Accident prevention

14.0%
15.1%

Anti-warAnti-war
10.2%
10.5%

2021 (N=1000)

Chinese Public Opinion

53.2%

Anti-hegemony

Anti-hegemony

Rule of law

Rule of law
Anti-nuclear weapons

Anti-nuclear weapons

Peaceful co-existence

Peaceful co-existence

Fostering trust

49.1%
11.8%
12.9%
16.2%
19.2%
52.0%
50.3%
18.4%
16.0%

Fostering trust

Disarmament/ arms control Disarmament/ arms control

1.8%
3.9%

2021 (N=1547)
2020 (N=1571)

Figure 11. Agreements and policies needed for sustainable peace in Northeast Asia

The survey also that 71.6% of Chinese respondents and 42.5% of Japanese respondents believe amultilateral framework is needed to discuss conflict avoidance and other issues facing Northeast
Asia. Moreover, 43.4% of Japanese people and 37.7% of Chinese people believe that theJapan-China Maritime and Air Communication Mechanism established in 2018 is insufficient.

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

People in both countries seek cooperation rather than conflictas the US-China friction continues
What we should be considering is how Japan and China should respond to the current bilateralsituation as the US-China conflict continues. This essential question was asked last year and thisyear as well.
First, we asked respondents how, as the impact of the US-China conflict increases, how should Japanand China approach the situation (Figure 12)? In Japan, those who responded that Japan should “actin concert with its ally the US” rose to 21.5%. While 33.6% of people responded that they did notwhat should be done, we still find that almost 45% of Japanese respondents hope for increased
cooperation between Japan and China, with 33.7% wanting to promote Japan-China cooperation
while minimizing the impact of the US-China conflict, and 11.1% hoping to increase Japan-China
cooperation regardless of the state of the conflict between the US and China.
There is a similar range of opinion in China. Almost a third of Chinese respondents, 30.4%, thinkthat Japan should act in concert with the US, while almost half, with a combined total of 48.4%
believing that China should promote and increase cooperation with Japan, either through minimizing
the impact of the US-China conflict or disregarding it altogether.
Japanese Public Opinion
60%

40%

20%

21.5%
14.2%

33.7%
37.1%

2021 (N=1000)
2020 (N=1000)

33.6%
38.4%

11.1%
10.3%

Chinese Public Opinion

0%0%Japan should act in concert with
its ally the US

Japan should act in concert with
its ally the US

Should promote Japan-China
cooperation while minimizing
the impact of the US-China
conflict

Should promote Japan-China
cooperation while minimizing
the impact of the US-China
conflict

Should increase Japan-China
cooperation regardless of thestate of the US-China conflict

Should increase Japan-China
cooperation regardless of thestate of the US-China conflict

Don't know

Don't know

20%

40%

60%

30.4%
29.3%

37.9%
53.5%

10.5%
17.1%

21.2%
2021 (N=1547)
2020 (N=1571)

Figure 12. – Japan-China cooperation under the ongoing US-China friction

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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

As with last year, we are only hearing about the Japanese position under the US-China conflictthrough Japanese surveys. There, 24.9% of Japanese respondents believe it is important toemphasize the relationship with the US, an increase from 20.3% last year (Figure 13).
Again, this year’s survey mirrored last year’s, with the most common response being that Japan
should work towards global cooperation and development without favoring either the US or China,
with 55% of respondents (compared to 58.4% last year.)
What this year’s survey shows is that, under the shadow of the friction between the US and China,
people in both Japan and China are looking more towards cooperation than conflict.

Shouldemphasize
relationshipwith US
24.9%

2021 (N=1000)
Don't know
19.5%

Should work towards
globalcooperation/developme
nt without favoring…

Shouldemphasize
relationshipwith China
0.5%

Figure 13. What should Japan’s position be under the continued US-China conflict?

With next year being the 50th anniversary of the normalization ofJapan-China relations, both countries must find a path towards the future
The actions of both Japan and China have a decisive impact on peace and prosperity in Asia. It is forthis reason that, with increased change and tension in Asia due to the US-China conflict, bothcountries must find the path they can take to find a better future. However, there is currently no
diplomatic dialogue working towards such efforts, and each country sees the other only in terms ofthe military threat to national security, which has led to the current volatility in public opinion.
Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japanand China. If both governments do not attempt to build a new bilateral relationship before then, andif they do not work towards creating goals to achieve that, public opinion in both countries willremain uncertain.
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THE 17TH JAPAN-CHINA PUBLIC OPINION POLL

Survey Methodology

The Genron NPO and China International Publishing Group conducted joint opinion polls
targeting the citizens of Japan and China late August to mid-September in 2021. This survey has
been administered annually since 2005, when Japan-China relations were at its worst. This year
marks the 17th year that this poll has been conducted. The objective of the survey is tocontinuously monitor the state of mutual understanding and perceptions of the Japanese andChinese public towards one another as well as the changes that ensue over time.
The opinion poll in Japan was administered through the placement method (in which the survey
was hand-delivered to homes and then collected) between August 21 and September 12,
targeting men and women in the age of 18 or more. A total of 1,000 valid responses wereobtained. Respondents were 48.6% male and 51.4% female. The age range consisted of 2.5%
under the age of 20, 11.8% between the ages of 20 and 29, 14.9% between the ages of 30 and 39,
17.3% between the ages of 40 and 49, 14.8% between the ages of 50 and 59 and 38.7% over theage of 60. The educational background of respondents were 5.2 % junior high school diploma
and under, 48.4% high school diploma, 19.8% junior/technical college diploma, 23.6%
bachelor’s degree, and 1.8% master’s degree or higher.
The opinion poll in China was administered through individual interviews between August 25
and September 25, targeting men and women in the age of 18 or more in 10 cities: Beijing,
Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenyang, Wuhan, Nanjing, Xi’an, Qingdao and Zhengzhou.
A total of 1,547 valid responses were obtained. Respondents were 49.8% male and 50.2%
female. The age range consisted of 1.9 % under the age of 20, 22.3% between the ages of 20
and 21.6% between the ages of 30 and 39, 26.8% between the ages of 40 and 49, 9.9% between
the ages of 50 and 59, and 17.5% above the age of 60. The educational background of
respondents were 12.7% junior high school diploma and under, 25.3% high school/technicalhigh school diploma, 28.2% technical college diploma, 31.9% bachelor’s degree, 0.2% double
degree, and1.7% master’s degree or higher.
*Percentages may not add up to 100% in some cases as the numbers here are rounded off to one
decimal point and non-responses are not included.

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About The Genron NPO
In Cooperation With:
Japan: Public Opinion Research Center
China: The China International Publishing Group (CIPG),
Horizon Research Consultancy Group
Edited by
Yasushi Kudo
President, The Genron NPO
Editorial Assistant:Yuho Nishimura
Director, The Genron NPO＜Please send all inquiries about this survey to the address below＞
Authorized Non-profit Organization, The Genron NPO
LAUNCH 5F, 3-7-6 Nihonbashiningyocho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo Japan 103-0013
info<at>genron-npo.net
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