Liner shipping markets, networks and strategies.
Th implications
Thei li tiforf portt development
d lt on ththe W
Westt C
Coastt off SSouthth AAmericaiGordon Wilmsmeier
Infrastructure Services Unit
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division
Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (ECLAC)

ITF Roundtable, Santiago , 2013

T create
Tot opportunities
t iti we needd tot beb able
bl tot differentiate
diffti t• symptom/ˈsɪmptəm//ˈ
/a feature which indicates a condition of “disease”, an indication of anundesirable situation.
• cause/kɔːz/a thing that gives rise to an action, phenomenon, or condition.
Real opportunities are those who tackle the cause of the current
challenges.
h llCuring
C i symptoms andd not eliminatingli i i theh cause off thehchallenge will only provide short term relieve© Wilmsmeier 2013

Obj tiObjective• Analyse the evolution of symptoms of change in the liner shipping
industry• Identify causes and drivers of change• Discuss direct drivers for port infrastructure and port systemdevelopment• Reflect on habitual and perceived challenges for port development
in Chile© Wilmsmeier 2013

Pricinng

OutlineLiner shipping network evolution
Critical moments in port development
LAC and WCSA port system development
Liner shipping technological change
Liner shipping market structures
Discussion topics© Wilmsmeier 2013

Network evolution

LINER SHIPPING© Wilmsmeier 2013

R lRelevantt factors
f t iin liner
linetworktk configurations
fiti• Regional maritime policies• Ease of border crossing• Policies regarding externalities• Intermodal policies• Port policies• Accessibility (water andhinterland)• Infrastructure endowment• Costs• Productivity• Competition• Etc.

Port

Organisationa/Institutional• Port devolution andoperator model• Vertical integration
with port operators• Horizontal integration
strategies• Market strategy

Policies

Hinterlandspecific• Land accessibility• Cargo dispersion• Market size and development• Quality of hinterland transportsystem• Hinterland transport costs© Wilmsmeier 2013

E l ti
Evolutionary
patterns
tt
off liliner shipping
hi i networktk configuration
fiti (1)

Source : Wilmsmeier and Notteboom 2009

© Wilmsmeier 2013

E l ti
Evolutionary
patterns
tt
off liliner shippinghi i networktk configuration
fiti (2)© Wilmsmeier 2013

E l ti
Evolutionarypatterns
tt
off liliner shipping
hi i networktk configuration
fiti (3)© Wilmsmeier 2013

Critical moments

PORT SYSTEM© Wilmsmeier 2013

C iti l Moment
CriticalMt s iin LAC portt ddevelopment
ltb
betweent1990 andd 2013a changing
geography oftradechange in the
structure ofcargoes

Port devolution

port reform

influx ofinternational
privateoperators

inter‐terminal
competition

Port function

gateway ports

hybrid ports

transhipment
ports

Port system

one main port

new terminal
development ‐interterminal
competition

diversification ‐emergence of
secondaryports

Technologicalchangeship size

automatisation
ofsuperstructures

Logistics
informationsystems

Network
strategy

direct services

transhipment
strategies

liner specifictranshipment
hub

Liner shipping
marketstructures

establishingmarketpresence(competition)

mergers andacquisitions

co‐opetitionand collusive
behaviourInnstitutional and policy frramework

Source : based on Wilmsmeier, Monios and Pérez 2013

renegotiationof concession
contracts
t t

geographicalshift‐
emergence of
new ports

Hinterlaand integration

container
volumes

Economicgrowth© Wilmsmeier 2013

Latin America & the Caribbean

PORT SYSTEM© Wilmsmeier 2013

LAC containert imarketk t••

Port throughput:
Phh– 1997 - 10.4 million TEUs
– 2012 - 42.8 million TEUs
– equivalent to just above 7% of
all global port movements.

Total Container Throughput in LAC ports
42.8

45
40
35.935

CAGR 9.9%30

5 top countries in container
throughput:– One fifth of all containers inLAC are moved in Brazil– Panama (16%)– Mexico (10%)– Chile (8%)– Colombia (5%)

24.4252013.81510.4
10501997

2000

200520102012© Wilmsmeier 2013

CComparison
it 10 container
topt iportst andd LAC regions,i2012© Wilmsmeier 2013

Sub‐regions’gshares in container throughput
g p in LAC,,
1997 to 2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Caribbean

Central America ‐ CA & Mexico

Central America ‐ PanamaSouth America

Source : Wilmsmeier, Monios and Pérez 2013
© Wilmsmeier 2013

CComparisonittop 10 container
t i
ports
t andd LAC regions,i2012© Wilmsmeier 2013

WCSA andd WCCA growthth ratest off container
t iports,t 2000 tto 2011
1000%
900%
800%
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%

2005‐2011

2000‐2005

Source : Wilmsmeier, Monios and Pérez 2013

average 2000‐2005

average2005‐2011© Wilmsmeier 2013

Th usuall questions
Theti• What happens after the Panama Canal expansion?
• Will Callao be the hub port on the WCSA?

• Will Chile be served only by feeder services in the future?
• The more importantpquestionq
is:What is the future development of the Chilean port system?
© Wilmsmeier 2013

TTEU22,0

1,8

1,81,6

1,6

1,4

1,4

1,21,21

1,0,0,80,80,60,60,4

0,40,20,2000
0,0Millioons

Millioons

ShSharesini containert ithroughput
thh t ini Chil
Chile, 1997 tot 20111997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Antofagasta

Arica

Chacabuco

Coquimbo

CoronelIquique

LirquenPuerto Angamos

Puerto Montt

San Vicente (SVTI)

Talcahuano

Ventanas

Punta Arenas

San Antonio

Valparaiso(Source Authors, based on ECLAC)© Wilmsmeier 2013

Technological change

LINER SHIPPING© Wilmsmeier 2013

Evolution of vessel capacity
py on South American and other main traderoutes, 2000‐2012

Note: main trade routes include transpacific, transatlantic and Europe-Asia.
Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Evolution of vessel capacity
py on West Coast South America main traderoutes, 2000‐2012

Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Evolution of vessel draft on South American and other main traderoutes, 2000‐2012

Note: main trade routes include transpacific, transatlantic and Europe-Asia.
Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Vessel breadth on South American and other main trade routes,,
2000‐2012

Note: main trade routes include transpacific, transatlantic and Europe-Asia.
Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Evolution of vessel length
g on South American and other main traderoutes, 2000‐2012

Note: main trade routes include transpacific, transatlantic and Europe-Asia.
Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Structural change

LINER SHIPPING© Wilmsmeier 2013

W t CoastWestC t SouthS th AAmericai RReefer
f exportt evolution
l ti 1995
1995‐2011
2011

Source: Vagle, based on (BADECEL 2012)© Wilmsmeier 2013

R f capacity
Reeferit on vessels
l deployedd l d ini WCSA main
i routes,t 2000
2000‐20122012

Source: Wilmsmeier, based on CompairData, Lloyds List and Marine Traffic various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

Market structure

LINER SHIPPING© Wilmsmeier 2013

evolution of weeklyy capacitypy supply
pp y on WCSA main routes,,
2009‐2012

Source: Author based on ComPairData various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

GGrowthth rates
t containert iththroughput
h t andd capacity,
it bbase year 2000

Source: Wilmsmeier and Guidry based on ComPairData and ECLAC maritime profile, various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

WCSA – Asia
A i changeshiin market
k t structure,t t2000
2000‐20122012

Source: Wilmsmeier and Parushev 2013

© Wilmsmeier 2013

Market share in nominal TEU capacity
py byy service WCSA‐ Asia,,
2000‐2012

Source: Wilmsmeier based on ComPairData, various years© Wilmsmeier 2013

DiDiscussion
i points
i t
Integration in logistics chains

Strategies of market players

Sustainable and systemic vision ofport development

Proactive and integrated policies andregulatory frameworks© Wilmsmeier 2013

Questions?
Gordon Wilmsmeier
Infrastructure Services Unit
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division
United Nations ECLAC+56 2 2210 2640

Gordon.wilmsmeier@cepal.org
h //http://www.eclac.org/transportel/portt systemtchangesh••••Changes inCh
i theh port system occur ini an almostlcompletelyl l discrete
dimanner– port infrastructure– superstructure,– organizational changes
port development is very often dependent upon and determined by thegto which a specificpport
p in questionq
is embedded within local anddegree
regional institutional considerations.
the conditions under which any port system interacts with other subsystems of
the wider transport system – in particular, the local port access infrastructure– are very often locally and regionally defined and, therefore, beyond thedirect sphere of influence of the port system itself.
Critical: not only to the port but also to the economy,economy as it is this which
ultimately defines the degree of connectivity enjoyed by the economic
system which prevails within a port’s hinterland.

© Wilmsmeier 2013

portt development
d lt• port development is a “discontinuous, cumulative process, whichdevelops and appears as a series of innovations”• differentiate between ‘growth’
growth and ‘structural
structural transformation’transformation .
• ‘location splitting’ is a means to extend the port lifecycle when
limitations in feasible rationalisation,, investment and access arereached.
• the creation of such a subsidiary location in the hinterland provides apotentiall solution
lthat
h avoids
d an inevitable
bl decline,
d l
invokedk d either
hthrough– the inappropriateness of the actual port location or– a newly emergent competitive regime– shift in requirements from basic port facilities to logistics facilities© Wilmsmeier 2013

© Wilmsmeier 2011