IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE

ENERGY BALANCE OF
VIETNAM BY 2020

April-2009

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CONTENTS• General information about Vietnam’s
energy resources• Current status of Vietnam’s energy supply
vs. demand• Forecasted energy supply-demand balancein Vietnam by 2020
• Major difficulties and bottlenecks

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• Hydropower– Total estimated potential: 300 billion
kWh/year:+ The North:60%+ The Central: 26%+ The South:
14%– The eco-technical potential: about 80 billion
kWh– Total capacity of existing hydropower plants:
5245 MW (2008)

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• Coal resources– Total explored reserves as of early 2005:
about 4,5 billion ton, of which:+ Quảng Ninh:- Exploited Anthracite reserve: 3,1 bil tons
- Domestic mines: 200 mm tons
+ Under-explored reserves:
Khoái Châu –Đông Hưng: 30 billion tons

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• Oil and gas– Total oil and gas in place: 3-4 billion m3 oilequivalent, of which+ Oil/condensate:
1,2 – 1,5 billion m3+ Gas: 1,8 – 2,5 thousands of billion m3– 70 oil and gas discoveries found with totalreserves of 900MM m3 oil equivalent (500 MM
m3 for oil and 400 billion m3 for gas).

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• Oil and gas (continues)– As at 2004 year end, 10/20 oil and natural gas
fields have been put into production with total
output of:• 169,9 billion tons crude oil• 18,67 BCM gas which have been used forpower generation and residential purpose.
• Undiscovered oil and gas (about 50% of the oiland gas in place) locate in coastal deep water(Phu Khanh basin), offshore and sensitive areasof the East Sea and overlapping areas.

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• New and renewable sources of energy– Geo-thermal: More than 300 sources of hot mineralwater existing (30oC – 105oC)- Focus Area: North Western and Central part
- No available assessment of potential– Solar energy+ Average sunshine hours: 2000 – 2500 hours/year+ Total of average heat radiating energy:
150kCal/cm2/year+ Estimated potential: around 43,9 billion TOE/year

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES• New and renewable sources of energy– Wind energy: Small potential, Distribution of windenergy density:- Island area:800 – 1400kWh/m2/year- Coastal and highland area: 5001000kWh/m2/year- Other area: below 500 kWh/m2/year– Uranium: World medium potential+ Total estimated reserves: more than 200
thousand tons of U3O8.

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

VIETNAM ENERGY RESOURCES– Bio-mass energy+ Total potential reserves (wood, straw, subfarming products): 43-46 MM TOE/year:-Wood energy: 60% (26-27 MM TOE)

-Straw and sub-farming products energy:40% (17-19 MM TOE)
+ Producing reserves: 10%

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CURRENT STATUS OF VIETNAM’S ENERGY SUPPLYAND DEMAND

Primary energy supply: Total of primary energy
produced increased by 13.7%/year during the periodof 1990-2004 (from 7,1 to 43,6 MM TOE):• Coal: 22,7%/year (4,5 MM tons - 25,05 MM tons) 50
MM tons -2008• Crude oil: 15.5%/year (2,7 MM tons – 20,3 MM tons)• Natural gas: 44,1%/year (unremarkable - 4,67 bil m3 )• Electricity: 13,8%/year (8,7 billions kWh – 47,1 billionskWh) 75,9 billions kWh -2008

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CURRENT STATUS OF VIETNAM’S ENERGY SUPPLYAND DEMAND+ Hydropower: 6,9 bil. kWh – 18,1 bil. kWh (2001);
18 bil. kWh (2004), 25 billions kWh (2008),+ Coal-plants: 4,3 bil. kWh (2001); 7,8 bil. kWh(2004), 11,5 billions kWh (2008),+ Gas & Diesel: 8,1 bil. kWh (2001); 20,3 bil. kWh(2004), 33,3 billions kWh (2008),+ Commercial electricity: 6,2 bil. kWh – 39,7 bil.
kWh (1990 -2004:14,2%/year; 01-04: 15,4%/year),
65,9 billions kWh -2008

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CURRENT STATUS OF VIETNAM’S ENERGY SUPPLYAND DEMANDSTRUCTURE OF ENERGY CONSUM PTION IN 2004

9%
47%

34%

10%

Indust r y

Com m er c e and ser v i c e

Tr anspor t at i on

A gr i c ul t ur e

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CURRENT STATUS OF VIETNAM’S ENERGY SUPPLYAND DEMANDSTRUCTURE OF ENERGY PRODUCTION IN 2004

1 5 .9 %3 6 .6 %3 1 .9 %1 5 .5 %Cr ude Oi lNat ur al gas

Coal

Hy dr o pow er

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

ENERGY IMPORT AND EXPORT DURING PERIOD 1990 -2004

Import and Export19902004

Crude Oil export

2,6 MM tons

20 MM tons

Coal export

0.8 MM tons

10.5 MM tons (2003)
Around 6 billions USD

Energy export turnover(increase by 50%/year in2003
Petroleum product import

1,9 MM tons

11 MM tons

3,57 billions USD

Petroleum product import turnover(11% total turnover)Net export

0.3 MM TOE

16,2 MM TOEIEEJ：2009年5月掲載

ENERGY IMPORT AND EXPORT DURING PERIOD 1990 -2004

En erg y Ex p o rt a n d Im p o rt d u rin g 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 415102 .9

T r i Öu t Ê n

52 .6

5.0

4 .5

4 .1

3 .1

6 .9

6 .0

5.9

9 .1

8 .7

7.4

10 .0

11.1

9 .80
1990

- 0.8
-5

- 2 .6- 1. 21995- 1. 6- 1. 4

- 5.4

- 3.9

- 6 .2- 10XuÊt khÈu than
- 15

- 20

1

- 2.1

- 3 .9T¸ i xuÊt SF dÇuXuÊt khÈu dÇu th«- 6 .9

- 7.7

2000

- 4.0

- 8 .7

- 3.5

- 2.9

- 3.2

- 3.1

2004

- 4.2

- 5.5

- 6.5- 9 .6- 10 . 5- 12 .1- 14 .9- 15.4- 16 .7 - 16 .9- 17.2
- 2 0 .5- 25

NhËp khÈu SP dÇuIEEJ：2009年5月掲載

ENERGY IMPORT AND EXPORT DURINGPERIOD 1990 -2004• Totalfinal

energyconsumption

increased by 10,8%– Year 1990:

4,14 MM TOE– Year 2000:

12,2 MM TOE– Year 2004:

17,7 MM TOE

during

1991-2004

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

STRUCTURE OF ENERGY COMSUMPTION DURING
1990-2004

1990
(%)

2004
(%)

Coal

31,430,7Oil and gas

55,950,7Electricity

12,618,5ProductIEEJ：2009年5月掲載

STRUCTURE OF ENERGY COMSUMPTION DURING
1990-2004

18.50%
30.70%

50.70%

Co a lOi l a n d Ga s

El ect ri ci t y

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

ENERGY COMSUMPTION DURING 1990-2004
The average consumption per capita of Vietnam is estimatedat 20% of the world’s average level
Item1990

1995

2000

2004

Supply of primaryenergy,kgOE/capita/year

100

152

249

318

Primary energy
consumption
kgOE/capita/year

64

110

157

218

Commercial power,
kgOE/capita/year

94

155

286

488

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

FORECASTED OIL AND GAS PRODUCTDEMAND2010(MMtons)

2020(MMtons)

2001-2010(%/year)2010-2020(%/year)15-16

26-28,6

7,5 - 86,4 – 6,8

Petrochemical

8

1710%

5%

Gas

1015-16

billion m3

billion m3

ProductGasoline

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

FORECASTED ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY 2020

40000

250000Electricity-Base caseElectricity – Upper case

30000

Demand – Base case
15000025000

Demand - Upper case

20000
100000

15000
10000

50000
5000
002000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Demand - MW

GWh

20000035000

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

FORECASTED PETROLEUM PRODUCT DEMAND BY 2020

35000

30000

Others
LPG

Thousand tons

petroleum
25000

Jet FuelFO20000

DO
Gasoline

15000

10000500002000 2001

20052010

2015

2020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

ENERGY BALANCE BY 2020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

COAL SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

50

MM tons

45
40

Coal for electricity generation

35

Coal for other sectors

30

Coal supply

25
20
15
10
502000

2005

2010

2015

2020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

FORECAST OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION• Vietnam remains to be the crude oil export country up to 2010

Duration

Production(MM tons)

Domestic production(MM tons)

2006 - 201018,2 - 20

18 - 192011 - 2015

17,2 - 21

16 - 18

2016 - 2020

16,5 - 20,513 - 15

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載FORECAST OF CRUDE OIL IMPORT DEMAND• Vietnam become crude oil import country from 2015
Crude oil import

2015

2020

(MM tons)(MM tons)

Base case

1,210Low case

514

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE• Vietnam remains crude oil import country by 2020
Crude Oil product

2010

2020

import10 MM tons

10-13 MM tons

Assumption:- Dungquat refinery comes into operation by 2009
- Refinery #2, #3 comes into operation by 2015 and 2020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

NATURAL GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

DemandProductionby 2020
(billionm3)
15-162005(billion m3)

2010(billion m3)

2020(billion m3)

5,3

1015-16- For electricity: 4,1- Others: 1,2- 8- 12-13-2- 3

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

PRIMARY ENERGY BLANCE FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION• For base case (gas supply of 12billion m3)
Total energy
consumption

Hydropower

Coal

NaturalGas

FO firedelectricity

New andrenewableenergy2010:
20 MM TOE

36,2%

23,6%

31,6%

5,6%

3%

2020:
35,6 MM TOE

31,5%

19,2%

Nuclearpower: 6,3%
Renewableenergy: 4%

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

PRIMARY ENERGY BLANCE FOR POWER GENERATION

5.6%

6.3%

3.0%

36.2%

8.4%
31.5%

4.0%

31.6%

30.5%
19.2%

23.6%
Hydroelectricity

CoalGasFO-fired

New & Renewable E.

Year 2010

Hydroelectricity

CoalGasNew & Renewable E.

NuclearImported

Year 2020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

GENERAL ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

EnergyNew and renewable

2010
(%)

2020
(%)

2,1

3,3

Nuclear power

2,9

Hydro power<2015-17

Crude Oil products

3532

Natural Gas

18-20

14-15

Coal

33,629-30

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

GENERAL ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE

908070Hydro powerGasCrude Oil
CoalMM TOE

60

Total energy demand

50403020
1002000

2005

2010

20152020

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

Major difficulties and bottlenecks
1. Balance between conversion energy
development and new-renewable energy
development issues.
2. Balance between energy development andenvironment protection issues.
3. Balance between energy export for socialeconomic development and energy
conservation issues.

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

CONCLUSION

4. Energy price increasing and low-income
people issues.
5. Energy development to fulfill increasing
demand while shortage of fossil energy.
6. Balance between energy development andTransportable system
7. Energy development to fulfill increasing
demand while shortage of capital investment.

IEEJ：2009年5月掲載

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