IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

International Nuclear Energy
Symposium

Agneta Rising, Director General

18 May 2015

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Nuclear Power Plants under Construction
Strongest in 25 years – but not fast enough
Location

No. of units

Net capacity (MW)Argentina

125Belarus

22 218Brazil11 245

China

2322 738

Finland

11 600France11 630India

63 907

Japan

2

1 325

Korea

45 360

Pakistan

2630

Russia97 371

Slovak Republic

2880

Ukraine21 900

United Arab Emirates

34 035

United States

55 633

Other: Chinese Taipei

22 600TOTAL:

7168 136

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

Source: IAEA May 2015
Source: IAEA PRISIEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Global Nuclear Status

Operating reactors, building new reactors
Operating reactors, planning new build
No reactors, building new reactors
No reactors, new in planning
Operating reactors, no new build planned
Phase-out or foregoing nuclear
No reactors
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Nuclear energy must more thandouble worldwide"The contributions of nuclear energy - providing valuablebase-load electricity, supplying important ancillary
services to the grid and contributing to the security ofenergy supply - must be fully acknowledged““Global capacity (of nuclear) must more than double,
with nuclear supplying 17% of global electricity
generation in 2050, to meet the IEA 2 Degree Scenario
for the most effective and efficient means of limiting
global temperature rise to the internationally agreedmaximum.”International Energy Agency
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General4

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

IEA 2°C Scenario:
Nuclear is Required to Provide the Largest
Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050

Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2014

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Agneta Rising, Director General© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Nuclear is an important part of thelow carbon solution

100%
90%
80%70%60%
50%
40%
30%
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

20%

CoalGasOtherLarge HydroRenewables
Nuclear

6

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Governments investing in nuclear:important long-term factors
Environment

Industry

Jobs

Energy IndependenceInternational Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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Public acceptanceCommunicating radiation home truths
Radiation health impacts of nuclear accidents have been small.
Real consequences have been made worse by fear-mongers.

UNSCEAR on Chernobyl:• 30 workers dead from radiation• Increase in thyroid cancers among children. Few
fatalities• No demonstrated increase in other cancers inpublic“However there were widespread psychologicalreactions to the accident, which were due to fearof the radiation, not to the actual radiation doses”
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General“A new Greenpeace report hasrevealed that the full consequencesof the Chernobyl disaster could top
a quarter of a million cancer cases
and nearly 100,000 fatal cancers.”

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Fukushima - the real impact fromradiation exposure
The doses to the general public, boththose incurred during the first year andestimated for their lifetimes, aregenerally low or very low.
No discernible increased incidence ofradiation-related health effects areexpected among exposed members of
the public or their descendants.
Source: UNSCEAR, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General
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Public support can return

1979 Three Mile Island, United States
Since TMI public support has gradually increased, so there is
now a clear majority in favour of nuclear.
1986 Chernobyl, Ukraine
Public support for nuclear has returned in Ukraine, driven bypriority to get fuel security and clean environment.
2011 Fukushima, Japan
Public support can be regained. Approval for reactor restart
will demonstrate industry and regulators have learnt andimproved.
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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Nuclear provides fuel security¥3.6 trillion($35.2 billion)
Cost of fossil fuelimports to compensate
for idled nuclear
reactors in fiscal 2013

Tariff Increase 2010-2013
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Domestic Users

Industrial Users

Percentage Increase in Electricity Tariffs from Fiscal 2010-2013
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Benefits of Nuclear Energy
Values from different perspectives

ClimateChange solution
Our World

Reliabilityof electricity
Qualityof LifeInternational Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

NUCLEAR
ENERGY

Clean air
Personal
HealthEnergysecurity
National
Health12

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Spiral of Silence: the Perception Gap

I favour nuclear energy,
but he doesn’t.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

I favour nuclear energy,
but she doesn’t.

13

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Public Opinion in United States% Favour% Oppose

6849
46

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mar-14Oct-14Mar-1530

Overall, do you strongly favour, somewhat favour, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose
the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity in the United States?
Bisconti Research, Inc. with GfK Roper and Quest Global ResearchInternational Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General14IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Public Opinion in Sweden%

Support current
reactors or
current reactors
and new build
Support politicalphase-out
Not sureInternational Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Swedish Policy Journey
From Phase Out to Support••••

1980 Swedish Nuclear Referendum
Three options for a nuclear phase-out.
No pro-nuclear option was offered.
Government introduced policy banning newnuclear build and a decision to phase-out
existing reactors by 2010.
• Policy cancelled in 2010.
• Only two of twelve units had been closed.

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Agneta Rising, Director General

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Swedish Public Journey
From fear of waste to Hosts ofRepository• Nuclear waste disposal is portrayed as insoluble.
• Deep geological repositories are an accepted
technical solution, supported by scientific studies, forused fuel and high-level waste disposal• Support from politicians and local communities isneeded for construction of repositories.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General17

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Swedish Repository• Feasibility studies selected two candidate locations,Oskarshamn and Östhammar.
• Transparent dialogue with local communities andother stakeholders was key to build support.

ÖsthammarOskarshamn
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Local Community Support for Repository
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Agneta Rising, Director General

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IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Swedish Repository• The two communities
competed to be the hostof the repository.
• Östhammar waschosen, Oskarshamn
received funding tocompensate for missingout on the opportunitiesof hosting therepository.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director GeneralÖsthammar Repository mock-up: SKB

19

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What is important for a government toreturn to nuclear
Environment

Industry

Jobs

Energy IndependenceInternational Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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What is important for a government toreturn to nuclear
This is why I favour
nuclear energy

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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Gaining Support for Japanese Restarts• Understand and acknowledge people’s concerns. Do
not dismiss them. Build trust to build credibility.
• Address the emotive issues before trying to present
facts on why restart should happen and why it is safe
to do so.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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Gaining Support for Japanese Restarts• Explain how the restart will benefit them.
• Involve men and women, young and old.
• The people representing the nuclear industry should
be as diverse as the communities they are meeting.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

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Analysgruppen (KSU) vs SOM - Use or phase out
Personal opinion about the future use of nuclear power in Sweden
100
90
KSU Phase out
SOM Phase out 1986-1997
SOM Phase out 1996-2011
SOM Phase out 2010KSU Use
SOM Use 1986-1997
SOM Use 1996-2011
SOM Use 2010KSU No opinion
SOM No opinion
SOM No opinion
SOM No opinion

80
70

Percent

60
50
4030
20
100
1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

2005

20102015

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Rebuilding the public trust• Two-way communication• Specialists talk with the concerned people• Go step by step

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Report Conclusions and Key Messages• NEA countries’ nuclear plants are safe to continue operation.

• Safety enhancements related to extreme events and severe accidents wereidentified and are being implemented.

• Provisions for dealing with and managing radiological emergencies, onsite
and offsite, must be planned, tested and regularly reviewed.
• Nuclear safety professionals have a responsibility to hold each otheraccountable to effectively implement nuclear safety practices.

• The Fukushima accident revealed significant human, organisational andcultural challenges — especially ensuring the independence, technicalcapability and transparency of the regulatory authority.
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

2015 NEA/IEA Technology Roadmap
Key Roadmap Recommendations•Governments should recognize the value of low-carbon capacity.

•R&D is needed to support long-term operation.

•Industry needs to optimise constructability of Gen III designs.

•

Accelerate development of SMRs.

•Support development of one or two Gen IV reactors.

•Demonstrate nuclear desalination or hydrogen production.

•

Invest in environmentally sustainable uranium mining.

•Continue cooperation and discussions on international fuel services.

•

Establish policies and sites for long-term storage and disposal.

International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

IEEJ: May 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Global View of Nuclear Power Today

Operating reactors, building new reactors
Operating reactors, planning new build
No reactors, building new reactors
No reactors, new in planning
Operating reactors, no new build planned
Phase-out or foregoing nuclear
No reactors
International Nuclear Energy Symposium
Agneta Rising, Director General

Source data: World Nuclear Association
Update 2015

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development30