Principal Global Investors

Economic Insights
Quarterly update: December 2018
Commentary by Bob Baur and the Economic Committee

Interest rate outlook: the Fed
blinks again
After being roundly chastised by a cumulative
7.7% collapse in the S&P 500 Index in only fourdays following the Fed’s December meeting, Fed
Chair Powell turned contrite in remarks on January
4th. He held up the dovish turn by former Fed
Chair Yellen in early 2016 as appropriate given
economic and financial conditions at the time. He
expressed a willingness to aggressively changetack in the future if warranted, saying policy had nopreset course. Powell even noted that the balance
sheet drawdown was subject to change. Dallas
Fed President Kaplan echoed those changes insentiment.
Fed futures show markets expect at most one
rate hike next year, our view for months. Now, we’dguess there will be no rate hikes in the first half andthat the Fed is probably done for this cycle. Or the
Fed will sustain a long pause during most of 2019.
However, if equity markets recover smartly from adeeper first half loss that we think is coming, there
could be another hike late in the year.
Near neutral: At the current range of 2.25% to
2.5%, the fed funds rate is close to some estimatesof neutral. And with little inflation, a higher funds
rate is not necessary to normalize policy. Leaving anear decade of super-low interest rates is disruptive,a challenging adjustment; last year’s turmoil
should have been expected. Further, the Fed’s large
bond purchases and resulting huge balance sheet
pushed the effective fed funds rate well below
zero. So, there has already been several percentage
points of tightening. Those who suggested the Fed
would raise the funds rate several times in 2019were whistling past the grave yard…never going tohappen.

Quarterly economic review
What a turbulent year. From wild-eyed enthusiasm in January to morose
gloom and recession worries in December; and after the post-Christmas
stock surge, confidence enough to buy the dip. Financial returns weremainly ugly last year. Most global equity indices had losses for the year andthe fourth quarter, double-digit losses in emerging markets and Europe.
World bond indices were more mixed for the year, but with a minor rout incorporate and emerging-market bond returns.
Pessimism about a global economic slowdown mounted through 2018 asdata from China and the Eurozone worsened markedly. While worries abouta US recession nearly became consensus, the US economy stayed robustwith an excellent job market and accelerating wages. The downdraft in thestock market has taken a toll on business sentiment, so capital spending may
fade somewhat and pull US growth down to the 2.5% range.
Geopolitical uncertainties plague the Eurozone and growth may only belackluster in the 1.5% range, give or take, with some downside risk. The
Chinese economy will continue its gradual, structural growth deceleration.
Officials in Beijing are urgently trying to stimulate growth back to target, butwith debt already high and pollution severe, the downside risk is significant.
Japan’s economy is rebounding from a third-quarter contraction. The strong
labor market, rising wages, and robust corporate profits should keep growthin the 1% to 1.5% range. India may be a positive outlier in a slowing world
economy; its economy could be a new world growth leader.
For stocks, the downdraft is likely not over yet, although a rally the next few
weeks would provide a respite from the bear market and an opportunity
to take some risk off the table. We envision a broad index decline of 25%
to 30% from the highs of last year before investors reacquaint themselveswith the new and tougher monetary environment. But, with no coincident
recession, stock markets could rally sharply from mid-2019 into next year.
Yields on long-dated US treasury bonds may rise along with stocks if theequity rally persists into late-January. We’d guess yields of 2.8% to 2.9%
would be a good place to extend maturity for the next six months. If sellers
extinguish whatever stock market upturn that comes, US treasury bondyields would likely continue to fall with the stock market into mid-2019.

Expressions of opinions and predictions are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice.
There is no assurance that such events or prospections will occur and actual condition may be significantly different than that shown here.

Safe-havens: Yields on 10-year US treasury bonds did rise as
expected, reaching 3.26% at the peak, but, never touched 3.5%that we thought was likely. That 3.26% will surely be the top
for this cycle. Yields have plummeted since then, hitting 2.54%
recently, a huge swing down in only two months. Given that worldstock markets may have another downdraft, 10-year treasury
bond yields will likely fall further eventually, perhaps to 2.25%.
Investors turned defensive after sharp swings in markets. The
dynamic stock rally since Christmas was mostly short-covering
since US treasury yields kept falling on a big flight to safety.
If world stock markets continue their post-Christmas upturn,bond yields could easily rise further. But, if 10-year yields getback to the 2.8% to 2.9% range, those bonds could be a great
short-term buy. Near-zero yields on similar bonds in Japan andGermany will keep US yields from surging higher.
Corporate bonds: Credit spreads, especially on high-yield bonds,
exploded since mid-October when economic pessimism began toskyrocket. Spreads peaked on January 4th after soothing words
from Powell and the blowout US payroll report. Spreads may
continue to narrow if stocks rally more and economic confidence
reappears. However, long-term fixed income investors should staywary of lower quality bonds since the long-term adjustment tomore normal monetary policy has further to go.

Stock market outlook: is the bear market
overWhat a turbulent year. From wild-eyed enthusiasm in January tomorose gloom and recession worries in December. Now, with theshort, powerful surge in stocks since Christmas, pundits say buy
the dip, the bear market is over. Did fundamentals really change?
No; all three emotions were misguided. Early-year zeal ignored
the disruption that would accompany the end of free money.
Fourth-quarter despair overlooked the robust US economy.
Buy-the-dippers scoff at the long-term adjustment to normalmonetary policy. The bear market may not be over.
Those, like this analyst, hoping for a nice Santa Claus rally totake portfolio risk off the table were grossly disappointed. Most
investors were just happy to see December and 2018 end. The
S&P 500 Index plunged 9.2% in December, making a 6.2% loss forthe year; reinvesting dividends cut the annual loss to 4.4%. Peakto-trough, though, the drop was 20.2%, bear market territory.
Few equity investors had positive returns for the year. Faring
worst were passive investments in MSCI index funds of emerging
markets, Europe and Japan, down 16.6%, 17.2%, and 16.8%
respectively.

except for those with high-yield. Barclay’s long-term US treasuryindex with a 5.5% return, surpassed most bond indices. For theyear, though, only investors with short or medium safe-havenbonds ended with gains.
Looking ahead: While the world has been unable to tolerate US
monetary normalization so far, the bear market may be due for a
respite. And for that to occur, events seem to be falling into place.
For example: chastened by the horrible reaction to Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) messages at its December meeting,Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell is speaking softly, gently. The
astonishingly strong US payroll report for December tempered
the rampant economic pessimism. A lot of capitulation occurredin the pre-Christmas collapse. China and US trade negotiators are
speaking more positively. Credit spreads seem to have peaked.
The post-Christmas equity surge may have some legs; hopesprings eternal.
While the rally lasts, if it does, it may be a good opportunity
to take some risk off the table and await a better buying
opportunity in the late spring or summer. We look for this cyclical,
non-recession bear market to persist several more months aftersellers return in a few weeks to extinguish the rally. In total, thedowndraft could reach 25% to 30% from the peaks of last year.
If a bear market happens, it will be moderate since we don’t
expect a recession. There have been six such non-recession bearmarkets since 1960. They averaged a drop of 26.7% over 6.7
months for the Dow Industrials. It will reacquaint investors with a
new and tougher monetary environment and remind them that
central banks are reducing liquidity, that money is no longer free.
Once the bear market exhausts itself and the lessons learned,
stocks could enjoy a solid recovery into the end of the year oncethe end of the world appears not at hand.

World economic outlook: slowing but
growing
The long economic expansion that began in the second quarterof 2016 is losing steam. But, the economic pessimism reflected
recently in world financial markets seems overdone. The current
global expansion will continue through 2019, albeit at a slower
pace and with significant divergences by region. Global stock
markets were buoyed January 4th by a blow-out US payroll
report and signs that Fed Chair Powell might slow the pace ofmonetary policy normalization. Chinese officials are supportivewith another cut in bank required reserves and increases in credit
to small businesses. There is downside risk in China and Europe.

Real estate investment trusts had smaller losses as long-termyields fell for the year. And bond investors had a positive month,

Expressions of opinions and predictions are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice.
There is no assurance that such events or prospections will occur and actual condition may be significantly different than that shown here.

United States: economic negativity overdone
The US economy grew about trend in the fourth quarter, likely
a bit less than 2.5%, dragged down by a large trade deficit and asmall inventory gain. We expect capital spending stayed robust
last quarter and red-hot consumer spending should keep topline revenue surging. Same-store sales according to Johnson
Redbook soared to an unheard-of 9.3% over the prior year for
the week of December 29th and 7.7% for the month. Further
healthy profit gains give business the wherewithal for continued
healthy investment. The recent turmoil in financial markets has
only marginally dented near-record consumer and small business
confidence at least so far.
And why wouldn’t consumers feel pretty good. US job seekers
are exuberant. Private payroll gains in 2018 averaged 214,000
per month, the most in four years. New jobs were widespread
across industries with 70% showing increases, the second mostsince 1998. Wage growth is improving, average hourly earnings
rose 3.2% over the prior December on a smoothed basis, themost since May 2009. Those gains are still accelerating as theannualized three-month jump is over 3.4%. The rise in hours
worked and together with that of wages suggests total consumer
income is up 5.2% over the prior year. Modest inflation meansreal income gains are healthy, boding well for hefty spending
growth.
Looking ahead: The keys for US growth optimism are robust
investment and surging consumer spending. Confidence of large
company executives plunged with the December plummet instock prices and widespread negative sentiment. A recent Duke
University poll of CFOs showed that 42% of respondents expecta
US recession by the end of 2019. Even though profit gains thisyear will be solid and the tax incentives for investment are still inplace, this drop of expectations suggests that capital spending
may not keep the excellent pace of the last two years. So, we’ve
trimmed our estimates for business investment.
However, fundamentals for consumer spending stay superb.
Improving wage gains and healthy job growth are pulling people
from the sidelines back into the labor force. That’s why thejobless rate ticked up in December to 3.9% indicating more labor
force slack than many expected. This influx is hugely positive:
more people working, earning income, gaining confidence. US
housing activity hit a wall last year largely because of changes intax treatment of mortgage interest and property taxes, a onetime hit. Household formation is rising and mortgage rates are
falling, so housing fundamentals stay solid.
Rising real incomes are the source of higher living standards andthus the fount of sustained confidence and consumer spending.
We look for gains in consumption expenditures to exceed 3% thisyear with upside risk and the overall increase in gross domestic

product (GDP) to be 2.5% to 3%. That will make this expansion
the longest in US history and longer than most expect possible.
Moderate growth in Europe
European data have been downright disappointing withthe setbacks lingering into yearend. Business surveys havedeteriorated mightily as the Markit News composite index
plunged to 51.1 in December from 58.8 in January. Similar
declines showed up in surveys of services and manufacturing
companies. Consumer confidence has fallen in all measures andspending has stayed lackluster. Industrial production plods along
at a dreary 1.2% pace over the prior year.
Looking ahead: Geopolitical uncertainties abound with UK
exit negotiations, populism surging, and widespread protests
in France. This confusion suggests downside risk that would
keep capital spending growth at a low ebb. However, economic
fundamentals are not all bad. While the jobless rate has been
flat through the fall at a five-year low of 8.1%, employment gains
have been strong, 1.3% over the prior year in the third quarter.
Wage gains are improving according to anecdotal reports, whichshould keep household consumption a decent driver of GDP. The
Italian government reached a budget agreement with Brussels.
While the European Central Bank is ending its bond purchaseprogram, it will likely restart its long-term lending operation. We
expect economic growth to bump along at an uninspiring 1.5%
rate in 2019, give or take.
A rebound in Japan
After a weather-induced contraction in GDP in the third quarter,a good rebound is underway. Business surveys, industrial
production, vehicle sales, and retail trade have all turned higher.
The labor market stays incredibly tight with the jobless rate alowly 2.5% with 1.65 job openings for every applicant. Total
employment reached new record highs, up 2.4% in 2018; wage
gains are picking up. Corporate profits are growing nicely, up 5.7%
year-over-year in the third quarter. Japanese economic growth
should stay at or above trend around 1% in 2019.
China, sustained economic deceleration
Economic growth in China continues to deteriorate. Businesssurveys for manufacturers by both Markit News and the National
Bureau of Statistics contracted in December, the lowest in acouple of years. Surveys of service companies were mostly flat at
low levels. Growth in retail sales and industrial production keeps
edging lower. House prices have turned down a bit in Tier 1 cities.
Real estate spending and official infrastructure spending remains
robust and keeps the lights on. Consumer spending gains are
slowing as auto sales declined from the prior year, the first time indecades.

Expressions of opinions and predictions are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice.
There is no assurance that such events or prospections will occur and actual condition may be significantly different than that shown here.

Enormous trade surpluses from an undervalued currency pushed
China to an unrivaled pace of economic gains in the 1990s and2000s. A huge burst of borrowing kept that surge going after thefinancial crisis. Officials have been striving to slow the growthof debt and curb pollution, but those goals plus an imminent
decline in the labor force are negative for growth. GDP growth in
the third quarter was only about 6% annualized, below that of thefirst half as well as the official target.
Officials are trying to support the economy with cuts in bankrequired reserves, lower tax rates, targeted loans to small
business, larger fiscal deficits, and more infrastructure spending.
The economy is proving hard to prop up, as the trade dispute with
the United States begins to bite. Further, short-term interest rates
between banks have risen steadily over the last several months
tightening financial conditions despite official efforts to loosen
them. Officially reported growth could fall to the middle 5%range or lower by yearend.
India: a new growth leader
Economic gains in India have been buffeted by strong headwinds
in recent years. Demonetization was first, whose purpose was toformalize the underground economy and bring it into the open.
Next, the sales tax was unified to improve efficiency across statelines. Recognizing non-performing loans at major banks hurt loan
growth especially in small businesses as capital requirements
increased for affected banks. Last was the enmity between
the central bank and the government, which was ultimately
reconciled by the resignation of the Head of the Reserve Bank.
As headwinds faded, growth rebounded in 2018 to the mid7% range with a spike to 8.2% in the second quarter. Businesssurveys have been trending higher since mid-2017. Industrial
production surged in October. We believe the stage has been set
for sustained growth near 7% for 2019.

Expressions of opinions and predictions are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice.
There is no assurance that such events or prospections will occur and actual condition may be significantly different than that shown here.

Baseline Economic Forecasts for 2018 - 2019
A. Growth in Real GDP - Qtr-Qtr (% Change, Annualized):

Real GDP

1st Quarter 18
2nd Quarter 18
3rd Quarter 18
4th Quarter 18
ActualActualActualForecast
18,324.0
2.2% 18,511.6
4.2% 18,665.0
3.4% 18,766.3
2.2%

2016 Actual2017 Actual
17,659.2
1.6% 18,050.7
2.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Durable Goods
Non-Durables
Services
Gross Private Domestic Invest.
Bus. Fixed Invest.
Structures
Equipment
Intellectual Property Products
Residential Invest.
Change in Inventory
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
Gov't Purchases of Goods & Services
FederalNational Defense
Non-DefenseState & Local
Final Sales of Dom. Product
Final Sales to Dom. Purchasers

12,722.8
1,628.2
2,858.6
8,267.9
3,321.0
2,654.0533.3
1,250.9
875.7
615.3
30.3
-902.42,517.8
3,420.1
3,152.2
1,213.1
722.8
489.5
1,937.7
18,274.4
19,141.3

0.5% 12,842.0-2.0%
1,662.3
0.1%
2,886.7
1.0%
8,329.8
9.6%
3,316.7
11.5%
2,710.1
13.9%
551.7
8.5%
1,264.9
14.1%
897.9
-3.4%
613.2
-36.8
-841.03.6%
2,574.2
3.0%
3,415.2
1.5%
3,171.8
2.6%
1,224.0
3.0%
733.3
2.1%
490.1
0.9%
1,946.6
1.9% 18,515.9
1.9% 19,330.8

3.8% 12,953.3
8.6% 1,677.4
4.0% 2,919.2
3.0% 8,394.9-0.5% 3,436.2
8.7% 2,727.0
14.5%
546.9
4.6% 1,275.6
10.5%
910.2
-1.3%
607.7
89.8
-949.7
9.3% 2,542.2-0.6% 3,491.9
2.5% 3,192.0
3.7% 1,234.7
6.0%
742.2
0.5%
492.0
1.8% 1,956.3
5.4% 18,562.1
4.0% 19,471.6

3.5% 13,059.8
3.7% 1,693.9
4.6% 2,944.4
3.2% 8,444.8
15.2% 3,438.7
2.5% 2,768.5
-3.4%
554.9
3.4% 1,294.3
5.6%
923.6
-3.6%
612.2
35.0
-956.1-4.9% 2,561.7
9.3% 3,517.8
2.6% 3,203.1
3.5% 1,237.9
4.9%
744.0
1.6%
493.2
2.0% 1,963.6
1.0% 18,712.6
2.9% 19,644.3

12,248.2
1,476.8
2,763.9
8,022.5
3,050.5
2,411.2
494.7
1,116.2
803.9
591.3
23.4
-786.2
2,378.1
3,164.4
3,132.5
1,187.8
709.2
478.0
1,942.8
17,617.5
18,387.2

2.6%

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

year-over-year

3.3%
4.0%
3.5%
2.4%
0.3%
6.2%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.1%
3.0%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
3.3%
3.6%

2.7% 12,558.7
5.5% 1,577.9
2.7% 2,822.0
2.3% 8,184.5-1.3% 3,196.6
0.5% 2,538.1
-5.0%
517.5
-1.5% 1,183.7
7.5%
841.1
6.5%
611.1
22.5
-858.7-0.1% 2,450.1
1.9% 3,308.7
1.4% 3,130.4
0.4% 1,196.4
-0.6%
713.8
1.9%
481.9
2.0% 1,932.3
2.1% 17,769.1
2.3% 18,550.0

2.5%
6.8%
2.1%
2.0%
4.8%
5.3%
4.6%
6.1%
4.6%
3.3%
3.0%
4.6%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
-0.5%
0.9%
0.9%

Real GDP

1st Quarter 19
2nd Quarter 19
3rd Quarter 19
4th Quarter 19
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
18,894.0
2.7% 19,018.1
2.7% 19,135.9
2.5% 19,248.9
2.4%

2019 Forecast
2018 Forecast
18,566.7
2.9% 19,074.2
2.7%

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Durable Goods
Non-Durables
Services
Gross Private Domestic Invest.
Bus. Fixed Invest.
Structures
Equipment
Intellectual Property Products
Residential Invest.
Change in Inventory
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
Gov't Purchases of Goods & Services
FederalNational Defense
Non-DefenseState & Local
Final Sales of Dom. Product
Final Sales to Dom. Purchasers

13,152.2
1,710.6
2,969.8
8,495.0
3,470.5
2,795.8
559.0
1,303.9
937.1
616.7
35.0
-961.52,580.7
3,542.2
3,212.0
1,241.9746.8
494.5
1,968.5
18,840.2
19,777.3

12,894.5
1,665.5
2,902.2
8,359.4
3,378.2
2,714.9546.7
1,271.4
901.8
612.1
29.6
-912.32,549.0
3,461.3
3,179.8
1,227.4
735.6
491.2
1,951.1
18,516.2
19,397.0

2.9% 13,248.8
4.0%
1,727.5
3.5%
2,999.1
2.4%
8,545.6
3.8%
3,494.5
4.0%
2,820.1
3.0%
563.2
3.0%
1,310.4
6.0%
950.9
3.0%
621.3
30.0
-966.93.0%
2,599.8
2.8%
3,566.7
1.1%
3,220.9
1.3%
1,245.9
1.5%
749.6
1.0%
495.7
1.0%
1,973.4
2.8% 18,969.3
2.7% 19,911.8

3.0% 13,336.3
4.0% 1,742.4
4.0% 3,025.0
2.4% 8,592.2
2.8% 3,520.3
3.5% 2,841.3
3.0%
567.4
2.0% 1,316.9
6.0%
961.4
3.0%
625.9
30.0
-971.2
3.0% 2,618.5
2.8% 3,589.7
1.1% 3,229.9
1.3% 1,250.0
1.5%
752.4
1.0%
496.9
1.0% 1,978.3
2.8% 19,087.2
2.7% 20,034.0

year-over-year
3.1%
2.7%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Principal Global Investors

2.5%

2.7% 13,418.5
3.5% 1,755.3
3.5% 3,047.5
2.2% 8,639.0
3.0% 3,544.5
3.0% 2,865.9
3.0%
571.6
2.0% 1,326.7
4.5%
972.0
3.0%
630.6
25.0
-972.8
2.9% 2,634.7
2.6% 3,607.5
1.1% 3,237.9
1.3% 1,253.1
1.5%
754.3
1.0%
498.2
1.0% 1,983.2
2.5% 19,205.1
2.5% 20,153.5
2.6%

2.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.2%
2.8%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
4.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.4%

2.7% 13,288.9
5.5% 1,734.0
2.8% 3,010.4
2.1% 8,568.0
5.7% 3,507.4
7.0% 2,830.8
5.6%
565.3
7.4% 1,314.5
7.2%
955.3
0.2%
623.6
30.0
-968.1
4.0% 2,608.4
4.6% 3,576.5
1.6% 3,225.2
2.6% 1,247.7
3.1%
750.8
1.9%
496.3
1.0% 1,975.9
4.2% 19,025.5
4.6% 19,969.2

3.1%
4.1%
3.7%
2.5%
3.8%
4.3%
3.4%
3.4%
5.9%
1.9%
2.3%
3.3%
1.4%
1.7%
2.1%
1.0%
1.3%
2.8%
2.9%

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本書は情報の提供のみを目的として作成されたものです。本書中の情報は、弊社及びプリンシパル・
ファイナンシャル・グループの関連会社において信頼できると考える情報源に基づいて作成していますが、適用法令にて規定されるものを除き、本書中の情報・意見等の公正性、正確性、妥当性、完全性等を保証するものではありません。本書中の分析、意見等はその前提が変更された場合には、変更が必要となる性質を含んでいます。本書中の情報は、弊社の文書による事前の同意が無い限り、その全部又は一部をコピーすることや配布することは出来ません。
また、本書中の情報はあくまでも投資に関する一般的なものであり、投資に関する完全な情報が記載されているものとして依拠されるべきではありません。 本書中の情報は貴社の投資目的、特定な
ニーズ、または財政状況を考慮したものではありません。投資判断をする前には、その投資がお客様の投資目的、特定なニーズ、および財政状態にとって適切であるかをご検討ください。
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記載の内容は過去の実績値であり、将来を約束するものではありません。

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