Why Low Carbon Asia?

The realization of Low Carbon Societies (LCSs) in Asia is imperative in order to achieve both sustainable economic
growth and stabilization of climate change. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Asian region accounted forapproximately 36% of global emissions in 2005. Considering the rapid economic growth expected in the coming
decades, the share of emissions from the Asian region is projected to rise further, accounting for about 50% of
global emissions in 2050.
If Asian countries are to pursue short-term economic growth and delay actions to tackle climate change, it would
lead to the reinforcement of energy intensive infrastructures and make it difficult for the countries to achievesustainable development. Considering the need of the Asian countries to address a number of environmental
and development concerns in parallel, it is necessary to identify leapfrogging development pathways and cobenefits to enable a shift to low carbon emissions and low-resource consumption societies, while simultaneously
improving the economic standards of living.

What are the “Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia”?
Transition to an LCS is not an easy task. In order to realize an LCS that satisfies the multi-faceted needs and valuesof each Asian country, it is vital to gain the cooperation of a wide range of stakeholders, including policy makers,
international aid agencies, private companies, local communities and NGOs, and share their long-term visions andstrategies for an LCS.
“Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia” provides a guideline to plan and implement the strategies for an LCS in Asia.
It takes into account the interrelationships between individual policies and the sequence in which they should
Action 1 Urban Transport

Action 6 Energy System

Action 2 Interregional Transport

Action 7 Agriculture & Livestock

Hierarchically ConnectedCompact Cities

Low Carbon Energy System
Using Local Resources

Mainstreaming Rail and Water inInterregional Transport
Action 3 Resources & Materials

Smart Ways to Use Materials that
Realize the Full Potential of Resources

Action 8 Forestry & Land Use

Sustainable Forestry Management

Action 4 Buildings

Action 9 Technology & FinanceAction 5 Biomass

Action 10 Governance

Energy-Saving Spaces Utilizing
Sunlight and Wind
Local Production andLocal Consumption of Biomass
Ten Actions toward Low carbon Asia

02

Low Emission Agricultural
Technologies

Technology and Finance toFacilitate Achievement of LCS
Transparent and Fair Governancethat Supports Low Carbon Asia

be implemented. It also discusses the necessary actions to be taken by governments, private sector, citizens, andinternational cooperation agencies on a priority basis.

Actions in individual sectors and their GHG emissions
Actions 1 to 6 focus on the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the use of energy and materials. Such CO2emissions accounted for approximately 60% of Asian emissions in 2005 and are expected to increase further. Actions 1
and 2 emphasize the necessity of developing low carbon transport systems with well-designed city structures. Action
3 introduces the strategies for reducing consumption of resources. Actions 4, 5, and 6 focus on energy system bothin demand and supply sides, e.g. promotion of energy efficiency improvement in buildings for the demand-side, andimprovement of biomass use and development of smart energy systems for the supply side.
Action 7, on the other hand, is targetedat the reduction of nitrous oxide

are proposed to facilitate the previous
eight actions and enhance theireffects, through providing incentives
and financial support for technology
development and diffusion, andestablishing transparent and fair
governance system that is supportive

Cross-sectoral measures

GHG emissions

Actions

GovernanceActions 9 and 10 are cross-sectoral; they

Mitigation scenario

Energy supply
sectorTechnology& Finance

not be underestimated.

Agricultural
sectorForestry& Land Use

potential from these sectors should

Agriculture& Livestock

emissions and the emission reduction

Industrial
sectorEnergySystemapproximately 40% of the total Asian

Biomass

related GHG emissions account forTransport
sectorBuildings

and absorption of CO2. Non-energy

Commercial
sectorResources& Materials

with the land use related emissions

Interregional
Transport

from agriculture. Action 8 deals

GHG emissions

Residential
sectorUrban
Transport(N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions

Reference scenario

GHG emissions in 2050 without countermeasures
Main contribution sectors

GHG emissions in 2050 with countermeasures

Sketch of GHG emissions reduction of individual sectorsof LCS development, particularly in Asia.

Considerations when applying the actions in each country
The roadmaps described in the “Ten Actions” regard the diverse Asian region as a single entity. Therefore, they should
be adapted and modified when applying to each country based on the socioeconomic condition of the society inquestion as well as the progress of existing climate policies. In addition, it should be noted that the actions presented
in this document are not the only pathways to achieve an LCS, and that several others also exist. The important point
is to use this document to encourage discussions among the stakeholders and to develop specific actions for eachcountry or area in the Asian region.
The Low-Carbon Asia Research Project* is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6)
of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
*A research project to establish a methodology to evaluate mid- to long-term environmental policy options toward Asian low-carbon societies

03Action 1

Hierarchically Connected
AVOID Strategy

Compact cities with well-connectedhierarchical urban centers(transit-oriented development)

Urban Transport
SHIFT Strategy

IMPROVE Strategy

A seamless and hierarchicaltransport system

Low carbon vehicles
and transport system(railway, bus rapid transit,
conventional buses, paratransit,
personal mobility)

Transit-oriented
development(small vehicles, renewable energy+ biomass fuel)

AVOID Strategy

IMPROVE Strategy

compact cities withwell-connectedhierarchical urban
centers

low carbon vehicles
and transport system

Electric vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles

SHIFT Strategy
a seamless andhierarchicaltransportat system

Paratransit

Bus rapid transit
Image of future low carbon urban transport system

04

Compact Cities
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Taking into account the CO2 emission target of acity, the government is responsible for determining
appropriate types of urban structure and urban
transport network as well as relevant policies.

Industries are responsible for developing
electrification technologies for personal vehicles
to avoid excessive CO2 emissions and roadspace demand from rapidly increasing inner-city
movement.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Citizens should not follow the conventional path ofmobility growth from bicycles and motorcycles tolarger cars, but should explore well-balanced use of
public transport and smaller private vehicles, which
thus leads to a higher quality of life.

Although developing countries should seek
promising ways to realize self-financing, international
financing needs to be greatly strengthened. Moreemphasis should be placed on green developmentin assessing international financial assistance.

2000

2010

2020

Early railway and BRT development with high-quality
pedestrian areas around stations

Government

Suburban park & ride

SHIFT
Strategy

AVOID

International

Citizens

Private Sector

Strategy

2030

Separation of trunk and feeder bus/paratransit routes

Efficient and modern public transport based on information and communication technologies (ICT)
Cooperative management of a comprehensive region-wide transport system
Control of car use in city centers

Expansion of slow-mode areas around stations

Development of polycentric business centersin key transit nodes

Establishment of multigenerational service facilities
around stations

Transit-oriented development (TOD) bymeans of "value capture"

Tax systems to promote TOD

Establishment of freight distribution systems

Shift to “local production for local consumption" systems

Strategy

AVOID

Promotion of passenger EVs and freight FCVs

Development of biomass fuel and renewable energy

Strategy

SHIFT

2050

Enhanced circulating local-transport services easily
used by aged people

Development of diesel-HVs, CNG buses, and small EVs(2-wheeled, paratransit, delivery vehicles)

IMPROVE

2040

Development of radial and orbital public transport
networks connecting urban centers

Development of energy-efficient smart grid systems

Preference for travel by faster and more
comfortable public transport

Preference for small-size personal vehicles

Preference for locations near stations

Preference for short-distance travel, popularization of online
shopping and telecommuting

Strategy

Financial schemes and emissions trading to support development of low carbon transport

SHIFT
Strategy

Integration of railway-track gauges, technology transfer of railway-track construction and railway
and bus-vehicle maintenance from developed countries
Development of model cities
for low-carbon transport

Adoption of models of urban transport systems by other cities

05

Action 1

V ision of 2050

Urban trunk transport networks, such as railways and bus rapid transit (BRT), are established in accordancewith the population density of a city, with a high rate of public transport use. As a consequence of thetransition to an aging society from 2030, travel demand within local communities is significant. Accordingly,
small-size personal vehicles for short-distance travel are popular, and the urban transport systemhierarchically links feeder transport of the bus and paratransit modes to the trunk transport. This transportsystem is supported by a high-density, polycentric, and hierarchical land-use system, which allocates urban
central functions from an existing single city center to key transit nodes. Furthermore, vehicle technologies
for automobiles will catch up to well-advanced to a level of CO2 emissions per passenger-kilometer similar
to that of current developed countries.

Current Situation

Economic growth has led to rapid motorization and urban sprawl in major cities in Asia, giving rise tovarious problems such as traffic congestion and air pollution. Nevertheless, most developing countries lacksustainable and low-carbon city planning. Many developing countries have prioritized road development inresponse to growing transport demand, resulting in a vicious circle in which even greater car use is induced.
Since around 2000, major cities in Asia have begun to undertake urban railway development, but so far thelevel is not at all adequate. Developing countries are also far behind developed countries in terms of vehicle
technologies, as the advanced technologies are not currently affordable.

Challenges

Future economic development in Asia may further increase transport demand. Effective strategies forrealizing low carbon urban transport will be to avoid unnecessary transport demand by creating compact
cities (AVOID Strategy) and to shift to lower carbon transport modes by developing trunk public transport
networks earlier (SHIFT Strategy) before a car-dependent society is formed. In addition, advanced vehicle
technologies should be actively introduced (IMPROVE Strategy). It is important to first develop model cities
in Asia on a short-term basis for use as a reference, and then to encourage adoption of their systems byother cities. Such development needs to be implemented at an early stage, as extensive infrastructure
investment is only available in the growth phase of the economy.
06

Hierarchically Connected Compact Cities

Study of “leapfrog policy” combinations
Policies and technologies for achieving a low carbon transport system have been organized systematically by
the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS) in the form of a matrix called the Comparative
study on Urban Transport and the Environment (CUTE) matrix. These policies can be classified into threemain categories: AVOID Strategy (avoid unnecessary transport demand), SHIFT Strategy (shift to low carbon
means of transport), and IMPROVE Strategy (improve transport energy consumption efficiency). Further
classifications are made according to the means by which these policies are achieved; i.e., technological,
regulatory, informational, and economic.
Means

Strategies

AVOID Strategy■ Transit-oriented

development (TOD)

Technological■ Polycentric development■ Efficient freight distribution

SHIFT Strategy■ Railways and BRT development■ Interchange improvement among

railway, BRT, bus, and paratransit
modes■ Facilities for personal mobility and

IMPROVE Strategy■ Development of electricvehicles■ Development of biomass fuels■ Smart grid development

pedestrians■ Land-use control

Regulatory■ Separation of bus/paratransit

trunk and feeder routes■ Emissions standards■ Local circulating service■ Control on driving and parking■ Telecommuting

Informational■ Online shopping■ Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)

for public transport operation■ Lifestyle changes■ Subsidies and taxation

Economic

policies for locations■ Eco-driving■ ITS traffic-flow management■ Vehicle performance labeling■ Park & ride

■ Fuel tax/carbon tax■ Cooperative fare systems among■ Subsidies and taxation policies

modes

for low-emission vehicles

CO 2 emissions (Mt/year)

The level of implementation of each strategy (AVOID Strategy, SHIFT Strategy, IMPROVE Strategy) was examinedto achieve a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions from
14
urban transport by 2050 for all urban areas in Thailand,
AVOID Strategy
Do
Nothing12
as compared to 2005 levels. The results showed that,SHIFT Strategy
IMPROVE Strategy
even if all passenger vehicles are electrified (IMPROVE
10Strategy) and the urban expansion rate is reduced by
8
10% from the Do Nothing scenario (AVOID Strategy),large-scale development of trunk public transport will6
be needed amounting to 4,420 km of railways, 220
4
km of light rail transit (LRT), and 1,260 km of bus rapidtransit (BRT) (SHIFT Strategy). Accordingly, it is important2
Mitigation Scenariothat policies to advance technologies and change the0land-use system be extensively implemented earlier
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045 2050
as a package in order to develop a low carbon urban
CO2 emissions from urban passenger carstransport system in Asian developing countries.
and mass transit in Thailand (Mt/year)07

Action 2

Mainstreaming Rail andTransport
AVOID Strategy

Spatial development driven

by a low carbon interregionaltransport system

Interregional Transport
SHIFT Strategy

IMPROVE Strategy

A rail/water-oriented intermodal
passenger/freight transport system

Low carbon automobile/airplane
technologies

and maritime/river transport)

lightweight vehicles/vessels)(high-speed passenger railways, freight railways,

International interregional transport(electric vehicles, alternative fuels,

Domestic interregional transport① Coastal corridors of low
carbon transport

GDP/pop(2008)(US$)
30,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000

0

Promoting multiple growth poles

GDP/pop(2008)(THB)
150,000
100,000
80,00070,00060,00001000km

200km② Inland corridors of low
carbon transport
Image of future low carbon interregional transport systems

08

Water in Interregional
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Realize future intermodal low carbon networks
for interregional transport including passenger
and freight railways and ports, along with inland
distribution centers (dry ports), led by backcastingfrom the CO2 emission reduction targets for 2050.

In order to shift to low carbon interregional passenger
and freight transport in Asia, for which a great increasein demand is expected as a result of economic growth,
the role of industries is to construct low carbon
emission supply-chain networks that make intensive
use of railways and maritime transport. They also needto promote low carbon transport technologies forautomobiles and airplanes.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Evaluate and select the transport systems byconsidering their impact on CO2 emissions. This
includes not only appropriately choosing modes oftravel but also consumer goods with a low carbon
footprint. Use rail and water transport modes, andshorter distance transport, as much as possible even
if it is not the highest speed option.

Official development assistance (ODA) and otherinternational funding mechanisms should be used topromote low carbonization of interregional transport
networks based on rail and water transport in inland
routes and offshore corridors.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Government

Development of ports and airports as international hubs

AVOID
Strategy

SHIFT
Strategy

AVOID
Private Sector

Strategy

SHIFT
Strategy

Development of high-speed passenger railways between domestic regions
Development of freight railways and maritime transport between domestic regions

Replacement of business travel by online videoconferencing
Optimization of supply chains for low carbon transport (passengers/freight)
Promotion of modal shift to railways and ships and improvement of loading capacity
Development of lightweight airplanes and biofuels

IMPROVE
Strategy

Citizens

Domestic fuel tax/carbon tax

Optimization of ship speeds minimizing CO2 emissions
Diesel-hybrid cargo vehicles

Electriﬁcation of ships

AVOID

Modal choice of transport (passengers) and consumption preferences(freight) that emphasize "local production for local consumption"

SHIFT

Increasing preference for "slow tourism" using railways and ships

Strategy
StrategyInternational

Development of low carbon transport infrastructure centered on international coastal region development axis

AVOID
Strategy

SHIFT
Strategy

IMPROVE
Strategy

Development of high-speed passenger railways between international regions
Development of freight railways and maritime transport between international regions
International funding mechanisms and emissions trading to support low carbon transport development
Integration of railway-track gauges in Asia

Application of standards for international transport system

09

Action 2

V ision of 2050

Taxation of environmental loads requires decisions as to where to locate industries and their freight
distribution systems, considering both costs and environmental loads. Consequently, regional development
is generated according to the development of low carbon interregional transport systems, based on rail
and water transport (AVOID Strategy). In coastal zones stretching from Japan and China to Southeast Asia,
regional development based on maritime transport is promoted, and these regions are linked by low carbon
transport systems such as railways and large trailers equipped with advanced technologies (SHIFT Strategy,
IMPROVE Strategy). As economic growth expands from coastal regions, more industrial agglomeration also
takes place in inland regions, and low carbon transport systems are introduced to link the coasts with inland
regions, forming intermodal passenger and freight transport systems.

Current Situation

Developing countries in Asia currently have the highest rate of growth in demand for passenger air travel
and international freight compared with other regions of the world. In overland freight transport within the
Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), truck transport is dominant. While domestic freight transport in China
centers around railways, truck transport is on the rise for short and medium distances. International freighttransport within the overall Asian region is dominated by maritime transport, which already constitutes low
carbon transport. However, in terms of the demand for international passenger transport, the growth of
low cost carriers (LCCs) has reduced the average airfare per unit of distance, and as a result, both demand
for air transport and CO2 emissions are increasing. The development of the global economy and theestablishment of an ASEAN bloc economy in 2015 (ASEAN Economic Community: AEC) are expected toincrease international travel demand above the level of domestic economic growth.

Challenges

As increases in international passenger and freight demand in Asia are unavoidable, implementation of
AVOID Strategy is not easy. However, it is necessary to promote development based on rail and watertransport for SHIFT Strategy to take place. In passenger transport, it is effective to promote a modal shift
from air transport to high-speed railways in the continental region from China to the GMS. In overland
freight transport, a modal shift from trucks to rail and river transport must be promoted. On the other hand,as it is not easy to solve all problems by such modal shifts alone, the use of IMPROVE Strategy policies, suchas the development of low carbon technologies for large trailers, airplanes, and ships and the developmentof alternative fuels, is also necessary. Furthermore, the needs for increased investments in roads and airtransport infrastructure make the shift to a low carbon transport system difficult. Accordingly, investments
in a low carbon transport system must be made early by setting the future vision at the initial stage of
economic growth.
10Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport

Study of “leapfrog policy” combinations
As in the case of inner-city transport, policies and technologies for achieving a low carbon interregionaltransport system can be organized systematically using the Comparative study on Urban Transport and theEnvironment (CUTE) matrix proposed by the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS). In
interregional transport, a shift to low carbon transport modes (SHIFT Strategy) and technical innovation oftransport-energy efficiency (IMPROVE Strategy) are expected to be particularly effective.
Strategies
Means

AVOID Strategy■ Construction of low-

carbon transport
infrastructure based onrail and water transport

Technological■ Regulations for location

Regulatory

Informationaland development thatare not based on railways
or maritime transport■ Use of videoconferencing■ Education regarding low

carbon lifestyles

IMPROVE Strategy■ Construction of interregional■ Development of low emission ships andhigh-speed railways■ Construction of coastal
region development axis andtransport infrastructure■ Construction of inlandinterregional railways■ Freight transport bases (dryports)■ Liberalization of domestic

maritime transport■ Joint delivery■ Promotion of railway freighttransport■ Promotion of coastal freighttransport■ Increased preference for“slow tourism” using railways
and ships■ Fuel taxes/carbon taxes■ Fuel taxes/carbon taxes■ Emissions trading■ Introduction of international(domestic)

Economic

SHIFT Strategy(international)(domestic)

airplanes■ Reduction of fuel consumption for

airplane takeoff and landing■ Shift to electrically powered ships■ Shift to diesel and hybrid freight vehicles■ Technical innovations for fuels (biofuels,

airplane, automobile, railway, ship)■ Emissions standards■ Establishment of high-carbon-efficiency

vessel speeds (ships)■ Integration of international railway track

standards■ Internationalization of railway track

standards in Asia

■ Navigation systems■ Labeling of airplane and ship

performance■ Fuel taxes/carbon taxes (domestic)

funding mechanism■ Emissions trading(international)

High-speed railway development
Since the establishment of high-speed railway services in China, Korea,
and Taiwan, air transport services have been suspended in the 300-600
km range due to shifting demand from air to high-speed rail. Further
development of high-speed railway is planned in Thailand, Vietnam, India,
and other countries.
Promotion of coastal freight transport
In the short-distance transport of high-value-added freight, SHIFT
Strategy is underway from air to maritime transport (roll-on/roll-off(RORO) ships equipped with deck plates to allow trailers to roll on androll off by themselves).
Freight transport centers (dry ports)
In Europe, the development of dry ports (inland distribution centers) has
increased the volume of intermodal freight transport by facilitating theloading and unloading of goods to realize seamless transport combining
railways, trucks, ships, and airplane. Dry port development plans arebeing considered in various parts of Asia.

Interregional high-speed railway (Taiwan)

Coastal freight transport (Danube)

Railway freight terminal (Hungary)

11

Action 3

Smart Ways to Use Mate
Potential of Resources
Production that dramatically reduces
the use of resources

Resources & Materials
Use of products in ways that
extend their lifespan12Development of systems for thereuse of resourcesrials that Realize the FullRole of Government

Role of Private Sector

Design low-carbon cities and national land based ona medium- to long-term perspective, and constructa long-lasting infrastructure. Develop systems forrecycling and reusing various articles, and support
studies on the effective use of resources.

Develop and install technological systems that
reduce product weight, replace carbon-intensive
materials, extend product life, and achieve
recycling and reuse to provide the same services
using materials that are less resource intensive andgenerate a smaller environmental load.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Create a lifestyle that is less material intensive andyet offers a sense of richness. Select recyclable andreusable products that are long-lasting and lessresource intensive, while changing residences atdifferent stages of life.

Foster international cooperation in research ontechnical development related to the effective useof resources as well as promotion and disseminationof new technologies. Technically improve theenvironmental labeling system for internationallytraded products.

2000

2010

2020

Government

Design of low-carbon
cities and national land

2030

2040

2050

Implementation of low-carbon urban and national design
Construct ion of long-lasting infrastructure and support for such construction

Establishment and operation of organization to evaluate effectiveness of public works
Development and introduction of recycling and reuse systems for various products

Private Sector

Support for research on technological development related to the effective use of resources

Development and active deployment of technologies for weight reduction and carbon intensive materials replacement
Development and active deployment of life-extension technologies and maintenance systems
Development and active deployment of technological systems for recycling and reuse

Citizens

Creation of lifestyle that is less material intensive and yet offers a sense of richness
Change of residences at different stages of life

International

Selection of recyclable and reusable products that are long-lasting and less resource intensive

Cooperation in research on technological development related to effective use of resources
International promotion and dissemination of new technologies
Technical improvement of environmental labeling system for internationally traded products
Development of environmental load intensity database for new technologies

13Action 3

V ision of 2050

Infrastructure is developed efficiently under urban and national plans based on a medium- to long-term
perspective. The use of materials with higher functionality and efficient product design makes it possible
to provide the same services using materials that are less resource intensive and generate a smaller
environmental load. Maintenance technologies and systems also improve, helping to achieve product life
extension and resulting in a significant reduction in the demand for materials. Materials are recycled using
clean energy, and the reuse market is growing. Such systems are supported by citizens.

Current Situation

Development of infrastructure of various types such as housing, transportation, communication, watersupply, and sewerage is needed in rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India, and thedissemination of durable consumer goods such as automobiles, televisions, and refrigerators as well as
increased consumption of nondurable goods such as paper and food are expected. This will cause
substantial growth of demand for materials with high carbon intensity such as steel, cement, and paper,
leading to increased emissions of GHGs. Moreover, rapid diffusion of mitigation technologies, including
solar and wind power generation, fuel cells, and storage batteries, might create a shortage of resources
used for these technologies.

Challenges

Efficient use of resources and a dramatic reduction in demand for resources themselves are necessary
for meaningful reduction of GHGs. To achieve this, infrastructure design must be based on long-term
prospects at the urban and national levels. Products must be made lighter, carbon-intensive materials must
be replaced, and product life must be extended to reduce resource consumption and the environmentalload while providing the same services. Used products must be recycled using cleaner energy, and total
demand for resources must be reduced by increasing the practice of reusing used products.

14

Smart Ways to Use Materials that Realize the Full
Potential of Resources

Increase in materials use in China due to economic
development and possibility to reduce suchmaterials use
The development of infrastructure, increase in diffusion of consumer durables, and higher use of consumer
goods associated with economic development in many Asian countries are expected to require the use of
greater amounts of steel, cement, paper, and many other materials. Such an increase in the use of materials is
likely to facilitate the growth of GHG emissions associated with those materials (emissions generated from thestage of collecting natural resources to the processing and production of the materials). The percentage ofsuch GHG emissions caused by material use in total GHG emissions is very high. Substantial reductions in theamounts of materials used will therefore contribute greatly to a decrease in total GHG emissions.
In the light of the aforementioned points, the project team has been forecasting demand for infrastructure,
consumer durables, and consumer goods in Asian countries; estimating the amounts of materials used tofulfill this demand as well as GHG emissions associated with such material use; and analyzing the feasibilityof dramatically reducing the amounts of material use and GHG emissions through the smart ways of usingmaterials. The following paragraphs introduce one of a series of such case studies conducted for China.

Lime

Asphalt

Glass

2000

100

Gravel and sand

Bricks

2050

2040

0
2030

0

Gravel, sand, bricks, and cement(million tons/year)

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

4000
200

2020

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

0

6000

300

2010

2000

400

2000

4000
200

8000

1990

300

0

0

0
1950

6000

100

2000

100

1980

400

Wood

4000

1950

8000

Steel

500

6000

200

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

0
1950

0

8000

300

1960

2000

100

400

1970

4000
200

Case of extended product lifeand higher recycling rate

1960

300

Other materials (million tons/year)

6000

500

Other materials (million tons/year)

400

Gravel, sand, bricks, and cement(million tons/year)

Other materials (million tons/year)
Other materials (million tons/year)

500

8000

Gravel, sand, bricks, and cement(million tons/year)

Amounts of materials used

500

Amounts of waste discharged“Business as usual” case

Gravel, sand, bricks, and cement(million tons/year)

In this case study, a model was developed to analyze material flows and stocks for cement, steel, wood,
gravel, and sand used for buildings, roads, and railroads in China. Using this model, the team also estimatedthe amounts of materials used and waste discharged in the “business as usual” case up to 2050. In addition,changes in the amounts of materials used and waste discharged in the case of extended product life and ahigher recycling rate were analyzed by assuming the same level of possession of goods as in the “business as
usual” case. The results show that, despite some time required before the effects are notable, these measuresare expected to have an impact from approximately 2020 and to bring about a significant reduction in theamounts of materials used by 2050.

CementEstimated amounts of materials used and waste discharged up to 2050 in China

15

Action 4

Energy-Saving Spaces Ut
and WindRealizing of energy-saving spaces bybuildings with high insulation

Buildings
Incentives for diffusing

energy-efficient appliances

16

Verification of energy saving efforts
through third-party evaluations

ilizing SunlightRole of Government

Role of Private Sector

Accelerate the design and construction of buildings
with high insulation and lower energy consumption by
establishing and improving standards and regulations
related to buildings, and through establishment offinancial and institutional incentives to promote theconstruction of high-performance buildings.

Promote technology transfers of facilities, equipment
as well as buildings, and accelerate investment inresearch and development to encourage domestic
production of energy-efficient technologies.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Gain knowledge about environmentally friendly
products and energy-efficient appliances, andpurchase energy-efficient devices when buying
new products. Houses that are newly constructed orrenovated houses are fitted with high insulation.

By promoting transfers of energy-efficient technologies, thediffusion of such technologies is accelerated in Asian countries.
International best practices are compiled and shared among
Asian countries as a common knowledge resource. In addition,by promoting the internationalization of criteria for evaluating
the energy and environmental performance of buildings,
stakeholders establish localized versions of criteria that reflect
well the local situation such as the weather and climate conditionsof individual countries. Such localized criteria are a key to theappraisal of efforts to realize low carbon actions for buildings.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Government

Policy coordination and goal setting
by all ministries and related organizations Extraction and elimination of regulatory barriers
Creation of comprehensive policy package and system for its periodic review
System design and various incentives
for increasing market penetration
Energy conservation labelingSupport for technology development and establishment of quality assurance system

Private Sector

Information collection

Citizens

Gradual removal of various incentives

Education programs to provide information to stakeholders (e.g., architects, engineers, consumers)

Promotion of transfers of energy-efficient technologies
Investment in energy-efficient technology development
Disclosure and publicizing of technical information for energy efficient technologies

Sharing of wisdom and practices for environmentally friendly operation
Selection of energy-efficient equipment and buildingsInternational

Technology transfer cooperation
Global standardization of best practices
International standardization of criteria for evaluation of building energy-saving performance
Awareness, integration, and expansion of Asian energy-saving standards

17Action 4

V ision of 2050

“Asian” design with low energy consumption is widely disseminated among Asian countries. Such design
includes wind corridors and solar insulation, and can maintain sufficient floor space while lowering energy
consumption. Appliances are energy-efficient, and used effectively. Buildings have a solar photovoltaic
system and solar heating system as a matter of standard. International standards for environmental
performance help to visualize efforts to design and construct energy-efficient buildings.

Current Situation

Most Asian countries are located in tropical and subtropical regions, and cooling service demand in
the residential and commercial sectors is relatively higher than in other regions such as Europe. Future
economic development will lead to growing demand for cooling; however, building design with low
energy consumption for cooling that matches the local conditions in different Asian countries are yet to be
developed and widely promoted.
The diffusion rate of household and commercial appliances is expected to increase with growing
electrification in Asian countries. On the other hand, the energy efficiency of such appliances in most of
the Asian region is relatively lower than that in industrialized countries. Therefore, economic, financial, andinstitutional incentives need to be established to increase the penetration of energy-efficient appliances.

Challenges

There are some challenges to be overcome in order to construct energy-efficient buildings in Asian countries,
such as the establishment of architectural design principles matching Asian climate conditions, and theintroduction of performance evaluation criteria for buildings and promotion of their widespread use at
the building planning stage. Reduction of the cost of energy-efficient appliances in the residential andcommercial sectors is also an important challenge in order to achieve a low carbon society. To overcome
these barriers, it is important for building designers, owners, and others involved to share information witheach other and form a consensus on the benefits of energy-efficient buildings, and to establish institutional
and political incentives as well as international support for the installation of energy-efficient appliances.

18Energy-Saving Spaces Utilizing Sunlight and Wind

Performance indicators for buildings in Asian
countries －Examples from Japan and Malaysia
It is important to evaluate the performance of energy efficiency in existing buildings and the level ofenergy efficiency in the building design phase by means of fair rules.
Several building evaluation indicators have been proposed throughout the world, and some of thesehave been incorporated in actual buildings. Indicators in Japan and Malaysia are described in this column.
One of the typical energy-efficiency indicators in Japan is the Comprehensive Assessment System
for Built Environment Efficiency, or CASBEE. CASBEE
considers various aspects of buildings, such as comfort,
the environmental load, and energy efficiency, then givesa ranking of BEE (Built Environmental Efficiency) based on
the environmental quality and environmental load. Figure
1 shows an example of analysis by CASBEE.
In Malaysia, one of the major performance indicatorsfor buildings is the Green Building Index, or GBI. The GBI
covers not only energy efficiency levels but also broader
aspects of buildings such as water efficiency, materials
and resources, and indoor environmental quality. GBI
gives a score to buildings as shown in the following table.
The total possible score is 100, and each element has amaximum number of points. For example, the energyefficiency score is limited to a maximum of 35 points,
indoor environmental quality is limited to 21 points, andso on. The GBI rating has four categories depending on
the total points: certified, silver, gold, and platinum.
Figure 1. Example of CASBEE Assessment Sheet
Performance indicators for buildings in Malaysia - the Green Building Index
PART
1
2
3
4
5
6

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

ITEMEnergy Efficiency
Indoor Environmental Quality
Sustainable Site Planning & Management
Materials & Resources
Water Efficiency
Innovation
TOTAL SCORE

POINTS86+ points
76 to 85 points
66 to 75 points
50 to 65 points

MAXIMUM POINTS
35
21
16
11
10
7
100

SCORE

GREEN BUILDING INDEX CLASSIFICATIONGBI RATING
PlatinumGold
SilverCertified

19

Action 5

Local Production and Lo
of Biomass
Sustainable biomass utilization
with sustainable food products

Biomass
Low carbon energy system using

local biomass resources in rural areas

20

Improvement of in-house environmental
quality with modern biomass utilization

cal Consumption
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

The implementation of appropriate land use
regulations defends against threats to foodproduction such as excessive planting of energy
crops. In addition, phasing out of subsidies for fossil
fuels will enhance the competitiveness of biomassenergy in developing countries.

Increasing the productivity of biomass crops
through breeding supports the development andcommercial production of biomass that does notcompete with food production. In addition, researchand development to reduce of the cost of highefficiency furnaces will promote widespread use of
biomass.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Together with the government, citizens participate
in sustainable land use control in order to satisfy
the needs of both biomass production and foodproduction through land use management. Citizens
also control the amount of forest biomass harvested
and encourage the sustainable management offorests.

International organizations assist in the development oftechnologies for biomass energy and their utilization,
and also promote transfer of best practice technologies
to Asian countries based on best practices. Carbon
credits for energy conversion using advanced biomass
technologies and their utilization will encourage
widespread use of such technologies as well as
investments in the biomass field from other countries.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Support for dissemination of energy-efficient furnaces

Government

Policy support for technology transfers and establishment of advanced biomass technologies
Formulation and implementation of land use and food production policies to avoid conflicts with biomass production
Education on the transition from traditional to modern uses of biomass
Institutional and policy support related to the sustainable management of forests and farmland
Phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies

Private Sector

Improvement and improved dissemination of energy-efficient furnaces
Commercial production of biomass that does not compete with food production
Promotion of research and development and technology introduction for next-generation biomass
Technology development
for biomass CCS1）technology

Implementation of biomass
CCS technologies

Citizens

Knowledge sharing for advanced use of stoves
Understanding for sustainable forest and agricultural area management and biomass production
Introduction of advanced biomass utilization technologies for communities

International

Establishment of financial scheme to support development and diffusion of technologies
Accumulation of global wisdom concerning technology transfer programs
Sharing and dissemination of knowledge obtained
Carbon credits for use of advanced biomass technologies

CCS：Carbon Capture and Storage

1）

21

Action 5

V ision of 2050

Rural areas have low carbon energy systems using local biomass. Biomass resources come from forestand energy crops, and a community forest and land use management system is established in order toavoid unnecessary conflict with food production in the area. Improved cooking stoves are installed in all
households, contributing to energy self-sufficiency and improvement of health. Some regions export theirbiomass resources to other regions and companies by producing biofuels and pellets.

Current Situation

In the Asian developing countries, firewood and charcoal are one of the major energy sources for cooking
and hot-water supply in the residential sector. The efficiency of utilization of such fuels is not high, and theyalso cause serious health problems.

Challenges

Although it is necessary to introduce advanced technologies for the energy-efficient utilization of biomass,
it will take several years or possibly decades to disseminate such technologies to all Asian countries. As thefirst step, governments should start to disseminate existing energy-efficient technologies such as improved
cooking stoves, then gradually promote the installation of more advanced technologies such as biomass
boilers and methane fermentation systems. Governments should also support technology development
and technology transfers from developed countries.

22

Local Production and Local Consumption of Biomass

Improvement of living standards－Co-benefits of improving the use of biomass
In developing countries, especially in rural areas, most energy consumption is accounted for by woodburning for cooking. For example, 300 million people out of the total population of 1,200 million inIndia still depend on traditional biomass, and, even in 2030, it is expected that 16.5% of total energy
consumption will still depend on the traditional biomass1). A survey2) of an un-electrified rural area in the
Indian state of Assam with a population of 5,958 people in 485 households has shown that 85% of energy
consumption is accounted for by biomass used for cooking (see the figure below).
In areas that depend on traditional biomass, advanced biomass utilization technologies will contributenot only to economic development embodying the low carbon approach but also enhancement of thesocioeconomic situation of rural areas such as improvement of health and increased job opportunities.
Indoor utilization of traditional biomass generates respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM), whichis considered to be one of the causes of respiratory disease in developing countries. Women in particular
are exposed to RSPM while cooking. The table below

1%summarizes the daily time allocations for women and14%

Cooking(fuelwood)

RSPM concentration by type of cooking and location inSpace heating(fuelwood)

exposure in the kitchen when cooking, and even in theLighting(kerosene)

85%

Percentages of household energy consumption
in nonelectrified rural area of Assam, India2）

houses. Cooking with traditional biomass causes highliving area the RSPM concentration is relatively higher
than outdoors. Diffusion of biogas cooking equipment
as well as improved cooking stoves will help to reduce
the levels of exposure to RSPM throughout the entire
house.
3,4）

Daily time allocations for women and RSPM concentration in India

Time allocation (hours)
RSPM concentration (µg/m3)
Traditional wood stove
Improved wood stove
Gas stove

Cooking period
Kitchen
Living area
3.6
1.3
2,150
1,353
122

767
565
132

Non-cooking period
Kitchen
Living area
1.7
12.4
265
265
65

262
262
62

Outdoors
4.8
87
87
114

1) IEA, 2011. World Energy Outlook 2011.
2) Sarmah et al., 2002. Energy profiles of rural domestic sector in six un-electrified villages of Jorhat district of Assam.
3) UNDP/ESMAP, 2002. India: Household energy, indoor air pollution, and health.
4) UNDP/ESMAP, 2004. The impact of energy on women’s lives in rural India.

23

Action 6

Low Carbon Energy Syst
Resources
Sustainable local energy systemwith renewables

Energy System
Smart energy supply andCooperation between Centralized
and Decentralized Energy Systems

demand system

Enhanced energy security withcollaboration between low carbon
energy sources and fossil fuels

Fossil Fuels

Systems

Cooperation between centralized and decentralized energy systems

24

em Using Local
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Contribute mainly to the establishment of a low carbon
energy system through medium- and long-term policy
and planning as well as introduction of supportive
regulations, which provides a clear direction to citizens aswell as other countries regarding the realization of a low
carbon society as a national policy. The government policy
includes targeted technological and financial incentives
and institutional interventions to accelerate widespreaduse of local renewable resources.

Technological innovation in the industrial sector will accelerate
low carbonization of the energy system by means of renewables.
The technologies include grid control systems and smart gridswith various energy sources such as renewables, cogeneration, andhydrogen. Technology innovations on the demand side are also a
key to achieving a low carbon energy system. Key technologies
include those for energy efficiency and demand response. The
industrial sector will play a central role in consensus building
among stakeholders, including households and governments,
which will accelerate the diffusion of such innovative technologies.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Choose low carbon energy (e.g. renewables) andenergy efficient technologies and thereby contributeto reduced energy demand and peak shifting; alter
consumption behavior such as increasing their useof non-motorized or mass transport.

International bodies will promote the establishment of an Asia
grid network among Asian countries by using international
financing mechanisms. The development of uniform standards
and infrastructure are keys to achieving the Asia grid network. In
addition, to promote the international dissemination of weather
information toward the use of renewable energy, targeting local
areas in particular, joint development and sharing of weather
information and forecasting tools are necessary to achieve a low
carbon energy system in the Asian region.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Government

Promotion of rural electrification ‒ expansion of electrified areas
Development of a medium- to long-term low carbon energy plan

Assessment of the potential
for renewable energy in Asia

Implementation of pilot project for smart grid in Asia

Establishment of demand response technologies and consensus building among utility customers
Introduction of measures to stimulate positive attitude toward renewable energies (e.g., FIT1）/RPS2）) and automatic dissemination of renewables
Provision of land for CCS

Research on high-efficiency
power generation

Establishment of CCS facilities for thermal power generation

Development of control methods and smart grid systems making use of a wide variety of energy sources and technologies
Establishment of demand response technologies andconsensus building among utility customers

Technological development and implementation of hydrogenutilization technologies

Coping with cyber security problems

Preference given to low carbon electricity sources (e.g., purchase of green electricity)

Citizens

Private Sector

Establishment of relevant regulations

Cooperation with demand management initiatives such as peak shifting

International

Development of concept of and support for Asian energy system network
Unification of electric power standards at international level
Development of appropriate financial support mechanisms for Asian energy system network
Joint development and knowledge sharing of technologies and tools for weather information and forecasting

FIT：Feed-in-Tariﬀ
RPS：Renewables Portfolio Standard

1）
2）

25

Action 6

V ision of 2050

Near-total electrification is achieved across Asia. While the energy supply of urban areas is provided by
the core system, that of rural areas is provided by micro-grids powered by renewable energies. Throughsophisticated projections of power generation and highly developed power storage technologies, thecapacity for utilization of renewable energies has increased significantly. The efficiency of thermal power
generation is drastically improved, and effective carbon capture and storage (CCS) is developed forwidespread use.

Current Situation

The electrification rate in Asia is nearly 80%; 800 million people do not have access to electricity, particularly
in South Asia. The renewable energy technologies are now penetrating in rural areas through market
and policy driven dynamics, but they have not reached the stage of serving as core energy resources.
While nuclear energy is being promoted as an option for low carbon and large-scale power generation, its
prospects in Asia remain uncertain in the aftermath of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan.

Challenges

Challenges for the future are: (1) to develop a power grid connecting all the countries in Asia, in orderto improve the energy supply in each country and make flexible power interchanges possible between
countries; (2) to promote a decentralized energy supply system, particularly in rural areas, besides providing
a stable energy supply through micro-grids connected to the core electricity system; and (3) to facilitate
the effective use of renewable energies by introducing power storage systems at the local, regional, andnational levels in regions with good weather conditions.

26

Low Carbon Energy System Using Local Resources

Role of renewables toward the Asian low carbon societies
Toward the realization of the Asian low-carbon societies, it is important to utilize renewables such as
solar and wind. On the other hand, since these resources are dependent on certain conditions including
solar radiation, wind speed, and land use, it is necessary to understand both the natural conditions andavailability of renewables in a given area.
This project assessed the renewable energy potentials of selected Asian countries, and its results are
summarized in the table below, focusing on solar, wind, and biomass. The table shows physical potentials
that can be determined by natural conditions. Because there are several barriers such as costs and stagesof technology developments, a gap persists between technological potentials and market potentials
that are effectively usable. However, compared to the projections of primary energy demands in the
Asian countries as shown in the figure, the renewable energy resources shall continue to exceed thefuture primary energy demand. Enhancing the penetration of renewables by overcoming the economic
and technological barriers will be a key to a low carbon society transition in Asian countries.
Solar, wind, and biomass renewable energy potentials of several Asian countries
Total
40,15778,88950,5605,329
10,363
11,203
3,604
1,813
1,313
1,956

Wind Potential (TWh/yr)
Grade I Grade II Grade III
40-100 30-40
0-30
Total
(%)
(%)
(%)
0
38
26
64
337
1,925
3,318
5,580
0
177
721
898
0
0
45
45
0
0
17
17
0
0
38
38
0
0
5
5
0
3
60
63
0
0
42
42
0
4
88
92

Biomass (TWh/yr)
Grade I Grade II Grade III Total
109
735
577
121
25
79
47
19
39
1

15
51
8
7
3
1
1
5
1
0

15
51
8
7
3
1
1
5
1
0

139
837
593
135
31
80
48
29
40
1

30,000Total primary energy demand (Mtoe)

Japan
China
India
Indonesia
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
VietnamPhilippines
Singapore

Solar Potential (TWh/yr)
Grade II
Grade III
Grade I
0-18002200-2600 1800-2200
22(kWh/m /y) (kWh/m /y) (kWh/m2/y)
0465
39,692434
32,84545,6104,255
46,136
169
5
1,625
3,699
0
3,759
6,604
0
10,322
881
0
1,243
2,361
0
1,278
535
0
1,304
9
0
1,180
776

Solar Energy Potential (Grade I +II +III)

25,00020,000
Solar Energy Potential (Grade I +II)

15,00010,0005,000

Wind Energy Potential (Grade I +II +III)

Solar Energy Potential (Grade I)
Wind Energy Potential(Grade I+II)

0
1990

Biomass Energy Potential (Grade I +II +III)
Biomass Energy Potential (Grade I +II)
Biomass Energy Potential (Grade I)

Wind Energy Potential (Grade I)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Future primary energy consumption and renewable energy potential in Asia

27

Action 7

Low Emission Agricultur
Water management in rice paddies

Agriculture & Livestock
Highly efficient fertilizer application
and residue management

28

Recovery and use of methane gas
from livestock manureal Technologies
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Expand irrigation for water management in rice paddy
and implement manure management plants for
diffusion of low emission agricultural technologies.
Promote the dissemination of appropriate information
on fertilization. In particular, in areas with excessive
reliance on fertilizers, gradually shift to the managementof fertilization at the proper times and in the proper
quantities.

Adopt low carbon water management such as
midseason drainage by paddy farmers and collection ofmanure and management of fertilizer and crop residue.
Additionally, actively use the methane gas emitted frommanure as energy. Positively adopt new technologies
with the aim of achieving compatibility between
productivity improvement and reduction of emissions.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Select locally cultivated or raised products tocontribute to the vitalization of local agriculture.
Display a preference for agricultural products
produced by low carbon farming methods, which
will enhance their market value.

Promote the international joint developmentof low emission agricultural technologies suchas improvement of feed, improvement of the
productivity of livestock, technologies for paddy fieldmanagement, and so on. Additionally, encourage
the introduction of international certification for low
carbon agricultural products and the promotion of
their dissemination.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Social infrastructure for agricultural technology diffusion (irrigation, manure management systems)

Government

Introduction of regulations and obligations(regulations on managements of crop residue and livestock manure, cessation excessive reliance on fertilizers)
Research and development of technologies considering regional specific conditions
Technology transfers for water management in rice paddy
Dissemination of technology and information on highly efficient fertilizer application
Development of slow-release fertilizers
and reduction of their costs

Diffusion of concentrate feed

Private Sector

Water management in rice paddy and fertilizer management in croplands
Utilization of methane from livestock manure
Active participation in technical training

International

Citizens

Replacement of roughage by concentrate feed

Preference for agricultural products obtained by low carbon farming methods
Self-consumption of methane from manure management

Technology transfers, joint researchPreference for low carbon agricultural products

29Action 7

V ision of 2050

Water management in paddy fields, such as midseason drainage and alternative flooding and drainage
or appropriate incorporation of rice straw, is well disseminated among paddy farmers to reduce methane(CH4) emissions. In dry fields, highly efficient fertilizer application (split fertilization, slow-release fertilizers,etc.) sharply reduces nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Most livestock manure is appropriately managed, andCH4 from manure decomposition is captured and used as fuel for cooking and lighting or for generation ofelectricity. Improvement of livestock feed leads to reductions of ruminant CH4 emissions and improvementsof livestock productivity.

Current Situation

Even though there are various sources of emission and various countermeasures in the agriculture sector,
such countermeasures and information about them are not sufficiently widespread. In most countries of the
Asian region, since improvement of the quality of life and economic development are high-priority issues,
people tend not to pay attention to countermeasures for mitigation of climate change, with the result that
information is not widely disseminated to farmers. In some countries or areas, fertilizer is distributed by thegovernment for free or at a low price as a subsidy. This distribution of low-priced fertilizer without sufficient
information may cause excessive fertilizing and increases in N2O emissions.

Challenges

Not only technology development but also sufficient funding and enhanced information sharing are required
to appropriately transfer agricultural technologies for climate change mitigation and to overcome different
economic and climate conditions at the local level. Additionally, appropriate support of information andfunding, development of social infrastructure and improvement of education and training of local people
are required in order for farmers to implement these technologies. Systems involving the national and local
governments, farmers, and companies need to be established. At the rural community level, “agriculture
cooperative producer organizations” consisting of small farmers also play an important role in this action.

30

Low Emission Agricultural Technologies

Various countermeasures for emission reductionin the agricultural sector
Countermeasure against CH4 emissions from rice cultivation (midseason drainage)
Fields that are continuously flooded during the entire
cultivation period cause more CH4 emissions than fields
that are not flooded the whole time. Such “midseason
drainage” involves the removal of surface water from thefield during the cultivation period. This is a longstanding
custom to prevent root decay and increase crop yield inJapan. Moreover, alternative flooding and drainage isalso applied to manage crop growth and avoid lodging.
Recently, this practice has also come to be considered
as a means of reducing CH4 emissions. The compatibilityof productivity improvement and control of emissions
can be expected from this technique.
Countermeasure against N2O emissions from cropland (efficient use of fertilizer)
In the soil, N2O is generated from the biological reaction of microbes with nitrogen fertilizer applied
to croplands. Avoiding excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer and increasing the efficiency of nitrogen use
reduce N2O emissions from croplands. “Split fertilization” (the application of small amounts of fertilizer
several times) is considered a good practice for efficient utilization of fertilizer to meet the nitrogen
demand of crops.
Countermeasure against CH4 emissions from entericfermentation
Ruminant livestock such as cattle and sheep are one of
the sources of CH4. Changing feedstuff from roughage(fresh forage, hay, straw, and so on) to concentrate
feed containing higher energy and less fiber and water
improves productivity of milk and meat and makes it
possible to reduce the population of livestock. The
addition of fatty acid calcium or polyphenols to feed
also reduces CH4 fermentation.
Countermeasure against CH4 emissions from manure management
Untreated manure releases CH4 emissions into the atmosphere due to anaerobic decomposition.
Therefore, the use of CH4 derived from manure as energy realizes compatibility between GHG emission
reduction and energy supply. In some Asian countries, there are examples of simple, low-cost, and smallscale unheated digesters and tubular digesters in a hole dug underground being used to recover CH4
from manure management, with the CH4 mainly being consumed as fuel for cooking and lighting or for
generation of electricity.

31

Action 8

Sustainable Forestry Ma
Forest protectionand effective plantation

Forestry & Land Use
Sustainable peatland management

32

Monitoring and managementof forest fires

nagement
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Implement land-use zoning and manage usage status ofland for forest protection and for stopping illegal logging
and unplanned land clearance. Eliminate wood products
made from illegal logged timber and regulate exportationof the products. In illegal logging areas, support economic
independence by enhancing the level of education of thepoor, etc. Introduce licenses for plantations and land clearance
to give incentive to landowners for sustainable land use.

Operate logging and plantation on land licensed underregulations, and prevent disorderly land clearance.
Manage fires lit to clear the land, and encourage
the learning of forestry management skills aimed at
appropriate logging and forestation and the maintenanceof land after logging for forest regeneration. Abstain
from illegal logging and not consume illegally logged
timber.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Understand the importance and multiple functionsof forestry ecosystem and manage forest at local
level. Strive to select products made of certificatedwood as much as possible. In deprived areas, actively
participating in programs of the government, NPOs,
international society, etc. and economic activities in
non-forestry sectors will diversify income sources andreduce excessive dependence on forestry.

Establish an international system to certificate sustainable
management of biofuel production and wood production,and regulate the importation of products that do notmeet the criteria. Additionally, promote international
cooperation for forestation and capacity developmentin timber-producing areas. Introducing high efficient
agricultural technologies (i.e. high-yield crop species) willcontribute to reduce land clearance and deforestation.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Establishment of land-use plan Formulation and tightening of rules for land use, Classification of protection forest area, Land-use zoning
Introduce licenses for usage in forestland and peatlands and plantation

Government

Stop unplanned cropland expansion
Enhanced control of illegal logging
Enhance fire management
Certification of oil palm and wood products, Prohibition of exportation of illegally logged timber and wood productsTechnology transfers and information support on forest management
Peatland management (peatland drainage, development of thick peat)International Citizens

Private Sector

Education and social support to people depending on illegal logging

Elimination of wood products made from illegal logged timber and use certificated products
Logging, plantation and land clearance on land in licensed under regulations
Learning of forestry management skills for appropriate logging and forestation

Locally autonomous managements for forest resources, Strengthening of economic activities other than primary sector of industry

Prohibition of importation of illegally logged wood, Certification of oil palm and wood productsInternational cooperation for afforestation and education, Sharing of monitoring facilities such as a satellites

33

Action 8

V ision of 2050

Logging and plantation is operated only on land licensed under regulations based on land-use zoning.
Producers of timber and palm oil have motivation for sustainable land management. Local people
understand the importance and multiple functions of the forestry ecosystem and stop most illegal logging
and land clearance. Countermeasures are implemented and a robust social infrastructure is established forforest and ecosystem protection and for sustainable production of agricultural and wood products.

Current Situation

The area of forests in Asia decreased until 2000 then recently increased during the period 2000 to 2010. Even
though illegal logging still continues in protected forest areas, it is difficult to implement countermeasures
because the livelihoods of some local people depend on illegal logging. In addition to this, in Indonesia
and Malaysia, high demand for palm oil and wood products in the global market may promote excessive
logging, land clearance and deforestation for exports of such products. Emissions from peatlands and peatfire are also a serious problem in the countries concerned. Peatland drainage to expand cropland areas andpeatland fires started from fires lit to clear land are major sources of the emissions from peatlands.

Challenges

Based on land use zoning including protected forests, illegal logging and land clearance must be strictly
controlled. Regulations on forestry and plantations need to be appropriately implemented and an
infrastructure to control licenses for plantations and land clearance should be established. Companies
producing palm oil and wood products should operate plantations only on land that is licensed under the
regulations. These actions will take a long time to realize, but it is essential that they will be implemented byeducating and training local people in forest management and creating jobs to provide their livelihood. At
the rural community level, “agriculture and forestry cooperative producer organizations” consisting of small
farmers also play an important role in this action.

34

Sustainable Forestry Management

Various strategies related to forestry and land
use change
Afforestation/Reforestation
Afforestation is the establishment of forest cover in an area where there was no forest. Reforestationis the reestablishment of forest cover in an area where there was forest. Under the Kyoto Protocol,
both the plantations are allowed as Clean Development Mechanism. Afforestation, reforestation andforest management leads to strengthened carbon sequestration.
Forest protection/Avoid deforestation
Deforestation causes CO2 emissions throughsoil disturbance. The reduction of logging
and forest protection holds the carbon
in the forest and reduces CO2 emissions.
“Avoid deforestation” is not permitted
as countermeasures under the Kyoto
Protocol. A new international framework
including avoid deforestation may promoteparticipation of countries with large emission
from deforestation.
Reduced impact logging
The continued existence of degraded forests after inadequate logging causes reduction in
productivity or damage to biomass growth in the future. Improved logging techniques such as
suppressing the disturbance of soil when logging minimize damage to the forest, reduce CO2
emissions, and increase carbon sequestration.
Peatland management/Fire management
Peat oxidation resulting from peatland drainage for expansion of cropland area causes CO2 emissions.
Fires lit to clear land can rapidly spread out of control. Peatland fires cause huge amounts of CO2
emissions. Conservation and rehabilitation of peatland are essential not only for mitigation of GHG
emissions but also for conservation of forest ecosystems and biodiversity.

35

Action 9

Technology and FinanceAchievement of LCS
Stable incentives for companies
to invest in technology

research and development

Technology & Finance
Adequate financial support
for technology diffusion

36

Incentives for enlightened consumers
to choose low-emission products

to Facilitate
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Governments are expected to set up an institutionthat enables private companies to invest intechnology development for the LCS. At the sametime, governments may provide financial support topromote the fastest possible diffusion of low-GHGemitting products.

Private companies play a central role in technology
development and diffusion. With the support of theirgovernments, the industrial and commercial sectors
are expected to draw attention to institutional barriers
against the smooth diffusion of technology. These
sectors are also expected to formulate marketingstrategies to promote low carbon products.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Citizens are expected to be smart consumers thatpurchase low carbon products even if they are
more expensive than other, less environmentallyfriendly products. They are also expected tosupport government policies that give priority
to the development and diffusion of low carbon
technologies.

A financial mechanism to support technologicaldevelopment and diffusion in the Asian regionis needed. Technology information centers willcontribute to the sharing of knowledge on the latest
technologies. The establishment of carbon efficiency
standards will promote trading of the best available
carbon technologies in Asia.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Technology development in industrialized countries
Establishment of programs for achieving green technology within science & technology policies

Government

Financial support for investments by companies Financial support for price reduction of low carbon products
Subsidies for prompt diffusion of existing low carbon productsStandardization of energy/emission efficiency of products Commercialization of innovative technologies
Support for large-scale projects such as CCS

Citizens

Private Sector

Establishment of technology funds
Development of low-carbon
technologies

Payback period by commercialization of technologies

Increasing investments in technology R&D with government support
Publicizing of strategies to inform consumers of low carbon products
Exchanges of views with governments on institutional barriers against technology diffusion

Smart consumers that select low carbon products
Appropriate use of low carbon products without unnecessary uses

International

Strategies to establish Asia-wide funding mechanism for technologies
Capacity building toward recognition of IPR
Establishment of Asian technology information centers
Asia regional ownership of innovative technologies

37Action 9

V ision of 2050

Gaps between countries in Asia in terms of economic development have decreased. Products of the best
available technology are used in all countries. These products are subsidized, so that the prices are lower
than those of products with higher GHG emissions. Low carbon businesses flourish in many countries.
Private companies and research institutes compete for innovative technologies that further reduce GHG
emissions. Investments for technological development are financially supported by private investments
and international funding mechanisms.

Current Situation

Rapid transfer and diffusion of existing technologies, as well as the development of innovative newtechnologies, are indispensable for the Asian countries to achieve an LCS. Today, however, there are manyfactors that hamper such diffusion and development. There is a need to eliminate these hurdles, while
increasing positive incentives for private companies to invest in new technology development. There isalso a need for financial support for private companies and the least developing countries, to stimulatetechnology development and diffusion.

Challenges

The development of institutions for swift technological development and diffusion in Asia is necessary.
Meanwhile, it is also essential to consider sufficient protection of intellectual property rights (IPR) and otherrelated rights. The challenge for Asia is to achieve a society where all necessary technologies to decrease
GHG emissions are diffused by 2050. Financial assistance from developed countries is not sufficient for therequired investments in technological development and diffusion. All countries need to play their respectiverole in technological investment and diffusion.

38

Technology and Finance to Facilitate
Achievement of LCS

What are the best institutions to promote development
and diffusion of low carbon technologies?
Many initiatives have been taken at the international level since the early 2000s toward the development
and diffusion of low carbon technologies. There have been strong calls for low carbon technologies not only
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but also in other forums
such as the G-8, G-20, APEC, and ASEAN. Possibilities for public-private partnerships (PPPs) are also being
investigated. The effectiveness of these technological initiatives, however, is viewed as unsatisfactory.
One of the reasons for the disappointing assessment of current initiatives is the existence of a large gap
between technologies owned by the private sector, and government policies aimed at controlling the useof these technologies. In addition, the institutions necessary for technologies differ according to the type oftechnology and the stage of the technology’s life cycle (R&D stage, commercialized stage, etc.).
In the case of technologies that are still at the R&D stage, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), institutions
should focus on establishment and strengthening of technological information networks aimed at facilitating
R&D. On the other hand, technologies that are already at the diffusion stage need other types of institutions.
Policies in India and China to promote wind power plants, for example, are considered to be successful, but
expensive royalties related to the technology are said to be a barrier to their faster diffusion. Many bioenergyrelated technologies are already at the diffusion stage in Asia, but a lack of capacity in the hosting countries
in terms of skilled workers and technical knowledge is considered to be another barrier against technologicaldiffusion. In such cases, intellectual networking is needed to connect producers and host countries.
In recent years, an agreement has been reached to establish the Climate Technology Centre and Networks(CTCN) under the UNFCCC framework, and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has started to investigate
effective institutions for such technologies. An agreement was also reached under the UNFCCC for a new
financing mechanism, the Green Carbon Fund (GCF), that is expected to collect 100 billion USD a year by
2020. These mechanisms can become “hubs” of international technological cooperation, constructing atechnology-promoting regime both at the multilateral and regional levels.

Economic incentives
such as CDM and feed-in
tariffs for electricity

Support for incubators forclean energy technology

Demonstration
Examples: Cleancoal, CCS, smart
grids

Deployment
Examples: Offshore
wind power,
biomass
gasification

Diffusion
Examples: Onshore
wind power, hybridcars, PV, LEDs

Commercialization

Examples: Methane
collection at landfill
sites, fuel switching

Technology transfers and diffusion

Strengthening of bilateral andregional networks for R&D
License pooling to promote
access to technological know-how

Capacity building thatcovers all stages of thetechnology supply chain

Creation of opportunities
to match local companies
and investors

Technological Institutions

Technology development
Establishment oftechnology centers fortechnology development

Financial Institutions

Public-private partnerships(PPPs)

Financial support for R&D
in developing countries

Examples of Technological and Financial Institutions for Each Stage in the Technology Life Cycle

39

Action 10

Transparent and Fair G
Supports Low Carbon
Construction of a transparent

and responsive administrative
management framework

GovernanceCorporate activities basedon fair business practices

Renewable Energy Policy
Network for the 21st Century
UNFCCC
Zero Emissions Platform
Asian Pacific Partnership
Carbon Sequestration
Leadership ForumGEN IV Nuclear Energy Systems
Global Bioenergy Partnership

40

Enhancement of environmental
policy and technology literacy

Renewable Energy andEnergy Efficiency Partnership

Pursuing
governance that
ensures LCS
strategies to beenvisaged andimplemented bymultiplestakeholders
Global Gas Flaring
Reduction Partnership

Major Economies Forum
International Solar
Energy SocietyInternational Renewable
Energy Agency
International Partnership for
the Hydrogen Economy
International Energy Agency
Global Methane Initiative

overnance that
Asia
Role of Government

Role of Private Sector

Deliver socio-technological infrastructure for the LCS,
through an efficient administrative management
framework in which multiple stakeholders can fulfill
their own expected roles and responsibilities.

Carry out activities based on fair business practices
in accordance with internationally agreed market
principles and complying with international businessrules on, for example, accounting regulations andintellectual property rights.

Role of Citizens

International Cooperation

Based on improved literacy with respect toenvironmental policies and technologies, citizens
have higher awareness of sustainability issues.
They engage in sustainable consumption patterns,
participate in policy formulation and implementation,and monitor transparency of the national and local
administrations.

In order to increase the transparency and efficiency ofnational and local governments in Asia, international
cooperation supports policy development andimplementation in these countries by assisting in
the realization of administrative capacity and aframework for better governance.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Establishment of short-, medium- and long-term LCS visions

Government

Construction of administrative framework for delivering LCS
Implementation of legal and institutional requirements for LCS
Establishment of framework to ensure transparent governance
Establishment and implementation of legal and institutional arrangements for fairand equal resource allocation

Private Sector

Provision of environmental policy and technology literacy education

Establishment of fair and transparent business practices
Improvement of compliance with internationally agreed business and market principles

Citizens

Behavioral changes for environmentally desirable consumption patterns
Advocating of policy recommendations and monitoring of administrative transparency

International

Creation of LCS
governance indicator

Capacity building for technology, policy, and administrative efficiency

Establishment of framework for technology transfers
Support of management framework for improved government administration
Establishment of framework for policy transfers

41

Action 10

V ision of 2050

An efficient governance management framework prevails in Asian countries. Fair and transparent decisionmaking processes are ensured, and thus corruption and illegal practices are excluded from governments
and societies. The governance framework is designed in such a way that government personnel withhigher motivation are appropriately rewarded, contributing to smoother policy implementation. Business
communities and citizens at large have sustainability awareness, and a higher degree of participation inpolicy formulation and implementation. The improved governance leads to more international technology
and financial cooperation among countries.

Current Situation

Currently, there are several Asian countries that have established action plans addressing a low carbon
society. These plans, however, are not necessarily being implemented effectively. Due to the lack of therequired legal and/or governance framework, as well as administrative transparency, physical, economic,
and human resources are not effectively mobilized. The governance framework is mechanisms that ensureauthorities to be accountable for better development results. The less effective governance framework often
leads to a lack of information sharing among different government agencies, which results in duplicatedpolicies.

Challenges

In order to improve organizational and institutional transparency, an effective administrative management
framework needs to be established. International cooperation currently recognizes the importance oftechnology transfers, but must also emphasize the importance for building the capacity to formulate andimplement policies by supporting the establishment of a governance framework in Asian countries. The
aim of such international support will be to enable the governments of Asian countries to play a pivotal rolein creating transparent and fair societies and markets.

42Transparent and Fair Governance that
Supports Low Carbon Asia

Addressing the role of governance－The case of Indonesian geothermal development
Indonesia has approximately 40% of the world’s geothermal energy reserves, with 27,000 MW potential.
Currently, it is ranked as one of the top five countries in the world for geothermal energy consumption,
together with the U.S. the Philippines, Mexico and Italy. The Indonesian government recently establishedthe goal of increasing geothermal resources by 9,500 MW by 2025, to make it one of the world’s largest
producers of geothermal energy.
It seems, however, that the Indonesian government is at the stage of seeking to find ways to achieve
the target. In order to make the geothermal target feasible, it would be important that the Indonesiangeothermal roadmap specifies what policies are requested by when, and who will implement themthrough various policy options, spanning political, economic and social issues. For example, the issues
such as reducing subsidies for fossil fuels to increase the competitiveness of geothermal energy, preparing
risk hedge programs, should be considered upon formulating governance strategies to overcome thestructural problems in the energy industry and to invite more players to join the Indonesian geothermalbusiness.
In order for the Indonesian national and local governments to achieve this ambitious geothermal target,
the international community is expected to play an important role in supporting the emergence ofan improved governance framework to deal with thebarriers ahead of the Indonesian energy transition.
Reference

Oil, 20%
Coal, 33%

Geothermal, 5%Natural Gas, 30%

Darma, S., Harsoprayitno, S., Setiawan, B., Hadyanto, Sukhyar, R.,
Soedibjo, A.W., Ganefianto, N., and Stimac, J. (2010) Geothermal

Biofuel, 5%Energy Update: Geothermal Energy Development and Utilization

Nuclear, 2%
Coal liquefaction, 2%
Others, 3%

in Indonesia. Proceedings of World Geothermal Congress,
Bali, Indonesia, April 25-30, 2010. Available at: http://www.
geothermal-energy.org/pdf/IGAstandard/WGC/2010/0128.pdf

Source: Data taken from BPPT

Indonesia National Energy Mix 2025
2006

2008

2012

2016

2020

2025

852MW

2000MW

3442MW

4600MW

6000MW

9500MW(actual)

Source: PLN Geothermal

The Development to 9500MW in the Year of 2025

43

Low-Carbon Asia Research Project
Project Leader
Advisory Board
Program Officer

Mikiko Kainuma (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))
Masahiro Kawai (Dean and CEO, Asian Development Bank Institute)
Ryokichi Hirono (Professor Emeritus, Seikei Univ.)
Li Zhidong (Professor, Nagaoka Univ. of Tech.)
Shuzo Nishioka (Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES))
Kenji Fukuyama (Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies)

S-6-1 LCS Scenario Development
Team Leader

Toshihiko Masui (NIES)
Junichi Fujino (NIES) (Project Manager)
Kiyoshi Takahashi (NIES)
Yuko Kanamori (NIES)
Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES)
Diego Silva Herrán (NIES)
Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES)
Tomoki Ehara (E-KONZAL)
Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
Manmohan Kapshe (School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal, India)

Tatsuya Hanaoka (NIES)
Yasuaki Hijioka (NIES)
Shuichi Ashina (NIES)
Yumiko Asayama (NIES)
Miho Kamei (NIES)
Dai Hancheng (NIES)
Hu Xiulian (Energy Research Institute, China)
P. R. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India)
Aashish Deshpande (National Institute for Technical Teachers’ Training and Research,

Rahul Pandey (Integrated General Systems Analysis Laboratories, India)
Ho Chin Siong (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia)
Bundit Limmeechokchai (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology,

Rizaldi Boer (Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia)
Ram M. Shrestha (Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand)
Sirintornthep Towprayoon (King Mongkut’s University of Technology, Thonburi,

Bhopal, India)

Thammasat University, Thailand)

Thailand)Yuzuru Matsuoka (Kyoto Univ.)
Reina Kawase (Kyoto Univ.)
Janice J. Simson (Kyoto Univ.)
Kazuya Fujiwara (MHIR)
Kazuyo Oyamada (MHIR)
Yukari Yamashita (IEEJ)
Yuji Matsuo (IEEJ)
Shigeru Suehiro (IEEJ)
Ryoichi Komiyama (The Univ. of Tokyo)
Kentaro Tamura (IGES)
Nanda Kumar Janardhanan (IGES)
Zhen Jin (IGES)
Masaru Ichihashi (Hiroshima Univ.)
Akimasa Fujiwara (Hiroshima Univ.)
Satoru Komatsu (Hiroshima Univ.)
Jin Chen (Beijing Normal University, China)

Gakuji Kurata (Kyoto Univ.)
Kei Gomi (Kyoto Univ.)
Go Hibino (Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc. (MHIR))
Yuko Motoki (MHIR)
Kokichi Ito (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ))
Shen Zhongyuan (IEEJ)Yu Nagatomi (IEEJ)
Yoshiaki Shibata (IEEJ)
Jusen Asuka (IGES)
Eric Zusman (IGES)
Takeshi Kuramochi (IGES)
Shinji Kaneko (Hiroshima Univ.)
Daisaku Goto (Hiroshima Univ.)
Junyi Zhang (Hiroshima Univ.)
Phetkeo Poumanyvong (Hiroshima Univ.)
Makoto Chikaraishi (Hiroshima Univ.)

S-6-3 Institutional Architecture for LCS
Team Leader

Norichika Kanie (Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech.), United Nations University - Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS))
Masahiko Iguchi (Tokyo Tech.)
Yasuko Kameyama (NIES)
Izumi Kubota (NIES)
Kanako Morita (NIES)
Masachika Suzuki (Kansai Univ.)
Shunji Matsuoka (Waseda Univ.)
Kazuhiko Takemoto (UNU-IAS)
Chaewoon Oh (Waseda Univ.)
Aki Suwa (UNU-IAS)
Sohail Ahmad (UNU-IAS)
Manu Mathai (UNU-IAS)
Joni Jupesta (UNU-IAS)
Ping Jiang (Fudan Univ., China)

S-6-4 Resources Management for LCS
Team Leader

Yuichi Moriguchi (The Univ. of Tokyo)
Shinsuke Murakami (The Univ. of Tokyo)
Tao Wang (Ritsumeikan Univ.)
Minoru Yoshikawa (MHIR)
Arisa Murata (MHIR)
Kenichi Nakajima (NIES)
Feng Shi (Nagoya Univ.)

Seiji Hashimoto (Ritsumeikan Univ.)
Shigekazu Matsui (MHIR)
Shigesada Takagi (MHIR)
Keisuke Nansai (NIES)
Hiroki Tanikawa (Nagoya Univ.)

S-6-5 Low Carbon Transport System
Team Leader

Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya Univ.)
Hirokazu Kato (Nagoya Univ.)
Kei Ito (Nagoya Univ.)
Atsushi Fukuda (Nihon Univ.)
Tetsuhiro Ishizaka (Nihon Univ.)
Matthew Barth (Univ. of California, Riverside, U.S.A.)
Varameth Vichiensan (Kasetsart Univ., Thailand)Paramet Luathep (Prince of Songkla Univ., Thailand)
Viet Hung Khuat (Univ. of Transport and Communications, Vietnam)
Allexis Fillone (De La Salle Univ. Philippines)
Kumiko Nakamichi (Tokyo Tech.)Toshiyuki Okamura (Toyo Univ.)

Kazuki Nakamura (Nagoya Univ.)
Aoto Mimuro (Nagoya Univ.)
Hideyuki Ito (Nihon Univ.)
Tuenjai Fukuda (Nihon Univ.)
Sittha Jaensirisak (Ubon Ratchathani Univ., Thailand)Thaned Satiennam (Khon Kaen Univ., Thailand)
Nuwong Chollacoop (National Metal and Materials Technology Center, Thailand)
Nguyen Van Truong (Univ. of Transport and Communications, Vietnam)
Shinya Hanaoka (Tokyo Tech.)
Fumihiko Nakamura (Yokohama National Univ.)
Takaaki Okuda (Chubu Region Institute for Social and Economic Research)
As of September 30, 2012

Scenario Task Force
S-6-1 Tomoki Ehara, Shuichi Ashina, Kazuyo Oyamada
S-6-4 Seiji Hashimoto, Shigekazu MatsuiS-6-3 Yasuko Kameyama, Aki Suwa
S-6-5 Hirokazu Kato, Kazuki Nakamura

Contact: Low-Carbon Asia Research Project
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
E-mail: lcs_project@nies.go.jp

October, 2012

Secretariat: Chie Shiraishi (NIES)
Cover designed by Information and Public Relations Group,Center for Global Environmental Research, NIES