Research Overview
The international community has recognized the need to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions by 50% by 2050 in orderto keep global mean temperature change
within 2 degree centigrade compared topreindustrial times. In order to achieve thetarget, it is imperative to develop the Low
Carbon Societies (LCS) in Asia, as Asian
countries account for more than half the
global population and GHG emissions.
It is thus necessary to identify leapfrog
development pathways to enable a shift
to low carbon emissions and low-resource
consumption while simultaneously improves
daily life through economic growth.
The primary objective of the Asian LCS
Research Project is to establish the visionof LCS in Asia which assists in keeping

02

global mean temperature change within 2
degree centigrade compared to preindustrial times, and to develop comprehensive
methodologies to design, calculate andevaluate the mid to long term policy options
towards LCS in Asia, which integrated
robust scientific knowledge and the multifaceted needs of each Asian country. The
Asia LCS Research Project explores andidentifies such development pathways by
the means of five research perspectives:(1) integrated research on scenario development towards the realization of LCS in
Asia, using global, national, subnational,
and city scale models; (2) fundamental
analytical research exploring the possibility of leapfrog development strategies in
Asia along with the analysis of institutional

driving forces and barriers; (3) research
into the medium to long-term internationaland domestic institutional design options
and their formative processes, including
funding mechanisms for the development
and distribution of low carbon technologies;(4) research to limit GHG emissions fromthe resource consumption associated witheconomic growth, which would also avoid
resource depletion through the efficient andcyclic utilization of resources; (5) research
into concrete measures to establish a low
carbon transport system in Asia alongwith an analysis of the best combination ofleapfrog technologies in transport sector toenable the achievement of CO2 mitigation
targets.
Through these research perspectives, theAsia LCS Research project aims to identify
feasible and robust pathways over the
medium to long-term for the realization of
LCS in Asian countries, at both national andsub-national levels. The project also aims toformulate policy roadmaps and disseminate
these with a view to positively influence
implementation activities to facilitate a shift to
Asian societies characterized by low carbon
emissions, low-resource consumption, andsolid economic growth.

How to deploy our study to real world*The official name of Asia LCS Research Project is the “Research Project to Establish a Methodology to Evaluate Mid to Long
Term Environmental Policy Options toward Asian Low carbon Societies” (S-6 research project). It is supported by Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MOEJ).

03

Message from Asia
Low Carbon Societies Research Project
The realization of Low Carbon Societies (LCS)

particular circumstances – such as economic

in Asia is imperative to reduce greenhouse gas

and social development level; renewable energy(GHG) emissions in 2050 by 50 percent globallysources; land area, and other factors. The counter-compared with 1990 level. LCS in this researchmeasures should thus be well-designed so as toproject means the realization of societies which will

accord with the local conditions in order to prevent

be able to achieve not only low carbon emission,

uneven distribution of burden among the countries

but also improve energy access, reduce poverty,

under this LCS scheme.

enhance energy security, and realize economic
growth and decoupling of energy consumption

2. It is vital to implement leapfrog devel-with growth. Asian countries are faced withopment strategies grounded in robust scien-country-specificdevelop-tific knowledge in order to reduce excessive

mental concerns, together with increasing global

environmental

andgreenhouse gas emissions, while promoting

problems including the impact of climate change.

economic growth.

These countries have thus urged to find synergistic

Asian countries, particularly newly developed

solutions by sharing the vision to develop a new

countries have pledged their emission reductionsocial foundation that improves economic andtarget in line with the Copenhagen Agreement at

institutional structures and daily lives of people.

COP15. Although it is a good beginning, it is vital to

Our Asia LCS Research project recommends theplan and implement the effective measures for therobust pathways to realize this vision, along withconstruction of LCS so as to achieve the 2 degree

concrete countermeasure, using back-castingtarget. Such measures include development ofmethodology. Three key proposals emanate fromlow carbon technologies, curbing unnecessary

this research project, as summarized below.

resource

consumption

throughefficientandcyclic utilization of resources, and organization
1. It is important to take early action guided byof low carbon transport systems which will be themid to long-term vision in order to achieve LCS

foundation of development of low carbon cities.

in Asia.

04

Efficient and cyclical use of resources will be

Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 fromone of the necessity actions to drastically reducethe 1990 levels will be achievable, but not becertain GHG emissions, given that GHG emissions

easy. The preliminary simulation results show thatin some countries, particularly in China, havethe associated carbon price becomes as high as

dramatically increased because of rapid expansion

485$/t-C, if only limited mitigation options basedin manufacturing base associated with the risingon existing social structure and currently feasible

demands for steel and cement necessary for infra-

technology measures are introduced. The scenario

structure development such as construction, roadanalysis also indicates huge differences in the GDP

network, and railway network. Our research has

loss between regions and between counties ofshown that there is a potential to reduce the GHG

each region. Especially, if Asian countries primarily

emissions by up to 50%, from roughly 1000Mt

pursue short-term economic growth and delay

CO2 to 500Mt CO2 in 2050, if longer-life social

their actions for countermeasures to tackle theinfrastructure and recycling of demolition wastes

impact of climate change, high energy intensive

are promoted, instead of the existing scenario ofsocieties would be established, and that will

short-lifespan infrastructure and limited progress

make it very difficult for Asian countries to achieveof recycling.

sustainable development pathways. Effective LCS

We also emphasize the importance to develop

actions in Asian countries vary depending on theircomprehensive low carbon transport policies byanalysing the best integration of three types ofderived from our research outcomes complement

low carbon transport strategies – avoiding unnec-

the need for practically feasible and robust

essary travel demand (AVOID); shifting transportmeasures.

andInternational community has to develop andimproving energy efficiency and emission intensity

implement the effective institutional architectures

modes

to

lower-carbon

ones(SHIFT);of transport (IMPROVE) in order to limit the CO2

which will enable a smooth shift to the LCS. Suchemissions from transport in the developing cities

a process needs to consider international equity

in Asia. Our analysis, focused on Bangkok as one

in the targets and a fair allocation of emissionof the case studies in Mega-cities, shows that a

reduction targets. Asia LCS research project shows

prudent combination of IMPROVE, AVOID andthat it is necessary to develop decentralized auton-

SHIFT interventions can yield desired results. Early

omous institutions to promote LC investments andimplementation is crucial to enjoy the co-benefit

efficiently disseminate LC technologies in orderfrom the establishment of comprehensive efficient

to respond to public needs and achieve carbon

low carbon transport networks and limiting the

reduction. This is because different countries

GHG emissions due to the inappropriate land use

will need different institutional architectures inplanning.

line with their specific conditions to realize thetargets. It is also vital to establish the partnership

3. It is essential to strengthen human resource

among multiple stakeholders – the governments,

development in order to realize the vision

private companies who have access to the LC

towards LCS in Asia.

technologies and know-how, research institutes

While some Asian countries have the opportu-

and NGOs. Such partnerships are necessary tonities to conduct the projects for the formation of

establish effective low carbon governance archi-

LCS, the number of people who have knowledge

tecture so as to make use of the strength of eachto realize the LCS is limited. It is partly because

actor and to prevent lock-in transition to high energy

such projects have been conducted by fragmented

intensiveorganizations

disparate

sector-based development policies and climate

purposes that limited environmental integrity has

policies, besides availability of financing mecha-

been achieved. It is thus necessary to provide

nisms, will be essential to enhance acceptancecapacity development for a wide range of stake-and diffusion of low carbon technologies.

withdifferentandsocialinfrastructure.

Mainstreaming

holders to equip them to plan their own mid-to

The researchers in this research project havelong term comprehensive pathways towards LCS

also actively participated in discussion about theand to develop shared visions and strategies while

institutional architectures required to promote

appropriately understanding and using the LCS

the LC innovation. They have contributed to thescenarios focused on their own country and city.

relevant policy-making processes involving key

The researchers who have conducted the Asia

international organizations, providing scientific

LCS project have conducted a variety of training

knowledge derived from our research outcomes.

workshops for policy-makers and researchers

Ownership and willingness to realize the LCS

in Asian countries in order to delineate their own

vision of each Asian country will be a fundamental

LCS pathways grounded in scientific knowledge.

pre-requisite to enable a shift to LCS by means ofMoreover, the researchers have also developed

a thorough review of people’s lifestyles; transportcomprehensive policy roadmaps while consulting

systems; material flow and international/domestic

and collaborating with various relevant organiza-

institutional architectures.

tions in Asia. This has ensured that the measures

05

LCS Scenario Development
Scenario development towards Low
Carbon Society (LCS) in Asia [S-6-1]

1
2
3

Halving global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 from the 1990 levels will
be achievable, but is not easy.
Actions in Asian regions are essential to achieve this GHG reduction target.
Effective LCS actions in Asian countries vary depending on their particular circumstances –economic level; renewable energy sources; land area, and otherfactors.

In the LCS scenario development study,
possible LCS scenarios by which global
GHG emissions in 2050 are reduced to
50% of the 1990 levels are analyzed using

the global model. In addition, mitigation actions for the targeted 15 countries/regions
are evaluated in detail using the country
specific models.

100
90

Gt-CO2-eq/year80
Non-energy
Landuse change
Activites
Structural Change
Energy Eﬃciency
Fuel switch
Electricity DemandEﬃcent Power Generation

70
60
50
40
30
20

Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Netimport of emission credit
Asian Emission (LCS scenario)
Global Emission (BaU)
Global Emission (LCS)

10
0
2005

2020

2035

2050

GHG emissions and mitigation options for Asia to achieve a 50% reduction in global emissions

1 Firstly, the socio-economic factors likely

to have significant impacts on future
Asian economic developments are
identified for the purpose of the global
emission reduction study. The analysis
concludes that LCS requires greater international cooperation and technological06

development, and that improvement ineducation and governance are the key
for those changes.
Secondly, possibilities for climate
mitigation are evaluated using global
models that reflect the above socioeconomic scenario. In the analysis, theglobal GHG emissions target for 2050 is
set as 50% of those in 1990, and a C&C
scheme - in which per-capita emissions
allowance for 2050 is identical globally- is applied to allocate the emissions
cap for each country as “LCS scenario”.
The preliminary simulation results, whichassume that the change of the socioeconomic structure will be limited andthe technological countermeasures will
be dominant, show that the LCS scenario
is achievable, but the associated carbon
price becomes as high as 485 $/t-C. The
global GDP loss in 2050, necessary toachieve the LCS scenario (in comparison
with BAU scenario), is estimated to beapproximately two percent. This result
indicates the limitation of relying primarilyon the technology change to achieve
LCS. The GDP change in each country/
region in 2050 is +6% to -16% comparedwith the BAU case. These results indicate
the likelihood of uneven burden among
the countries under this LCS scheme.

of 3.4-4.4%. This growth rate is higher
than the annual global economic growthrate of 2.3-3.2%. With this relatively higher
economic growth, the share of GHG
emissions in those regions increases,
reaching approximately half of global
emissions by 2050. As explained above,
actions in Asian regions are essential toachieve drastic global GHG reduction
targets.

3 Country-specific scenarios are developed

for the targeted Asian countries - inparallel with the global-scale analysis.
These scenarios take the specific conditions of those countries into consideration, namely: existing GHG emission
structures; economic status; as well as
political, cultural and social background.
For a comprehensive analysis thesestudies are implemented in collaboration
with local LCS researchers. Since theeffective policy package and measures
identified in each country study are quite
diverse, it is concluded that the countermeasures should be well-designed so as
to accord with the local conditions.

2 The annual mean economic growth ratein the targeted Asian countries between
2005 and 2050 is estimated in the range

Residential
Lowcarbon
generation

Commercial

CO2 emission ( Mt-CO2 )Powergeneration

500

-43％

400
300

Freight
Transport
Passenger
Transport

Modal
Shift

200

Eﬃciency
imprtovement

100

2005

CM
2030

Modal
Shift

Power
generation

Eﬃcient
appliances

Industry

600

0Building

FuelshiftEﬃciency
imprtovement

CO2 emission ( Mt-CO2 )Lowcarbon
generation

Modal
Shift
Freight

Transport

600
500

Residential

BuildingIndustry

PassengerEﬃciency
imprtovement Transport

400

-45％

300

Modal Shift

Commercial

Eﬃcient
appliances

FuelshiftEﬃciency
imprtovement

200
100
0

2005

CM
2030

*CM: countermeasure scenario

Differences in the effects of countermeasures between the Thailand scenario (left) and the Vietnam scenario (right)

07

Driving Forces and Barriers for LCS in Asia
Analytical research on potential for
low carbon development in Asia [S-6-2]

1
2
3

The mechanism of urbanization on national energy use and CO2 emissions is complex.
Developing countries emit more CO2 emissions in the process of urbanization, although CO2 emissions decrease after their economic level reaches about 34,787 USD(per capita GDP). Therefore, sustainable urban development toward leapfrogging to
low carbon societies (LCS) is crucial in developing countries.
Emissions reduction to achieve 2℃ policy scenario requires substantial reduction ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) in Asian countries. Innovative measures, such as energy-savings, renewable energy development, and technologies such as CCS (Carbon Capture& Storage) and clean coal can greatly contribute to GHG mitigation. Changes in value
systems are the basis of sustainable local lifestyle.
Low carbon development is closely associated with industrial structural change of acountry, and contributes to economic development through ensuring energy security
and reducing fuel imports.

Leapfrogging for Low Carbon Growth
Urbanization and leapfrogging

Technology and institution
for leapfrogging

Policy mix for leapfrogging

Economic development
Urban management
Development stages
Rural-urban migration
Embodied CO2 emission

Technological Innovation
Institutional mechanism
Law, regulation
Change in values
Citizens, NGOs

Reducing fuel import
Investment
Long-term policy design
Co-benefits
Renewable energy

1 Urbanization mitigates CO2 emission only at theeconomic levels above 34,787 USD per capita
GDP.
Asian countries with blooming economies arecharacterized by rapid urbanization. The effects ofurbanization on CO2 emissions is complex sincevarious factors are mutually intertwined. The research estimated the impacts of urbanization on
CO2 emissions at the national and sectoral levels,and showed that CO2 emissions have increased
during urbanization processes in developing countries, where energy shifts from traditional fuels tomodern one have occurred. On the contrary, CO2

08

emissions started to decrease when per capita
GDP exceeded 34,787USD. Total primary energy
consumption has decreased through urbanizationin developing countries, but increased in the developed ones. Furthermore, the case studies of Asian
megacities indicated that migrants from rural areas
to urban centers increased the modern energy
consumptions and CO2 emissions in developing
countries. Another research estimated the direct
and indirect CO2 emissions of the cities, and revealed that urbanization induced more indirect CO2
emissions since economic developments changed
the urban structures from industry-oriented to serv-

ice-oriented. Our researches confirmed the importance of sustainable urban development toward
leapfrogging to LCS in developing countries.

2 Technological innovations, institutional development and change in values are crucial to achieve
2℃ policy scenario.
To achieve low carbon development in Asian
countries, there are five main premises; (1) proliferation of low carbon technologies in the manufacturing sectors, (2) introduction and compliances
to the strict laws, regulations and environmental
standards, (3) development of institutional mechanisms for effective and efficient monitoring of GHG
emissions, (4) ensuring monetary supplies to support those initiatives, and (5) change in the values
towards environmental consciousness.
For example, our researches confirmed the large
potential of renewable energy installations in Asian
regions. Our case studies assessed the low carbon initiatives with solar energy installation. The
findings from Bangladesh confirmed that the installation of solar photovoltaic is one of the promisingsolutions for electrifying rural households, as wellas simultaneously achieving improved standardsof living and sustainable livelihoods. It revealed
that household income alone did not adequately
determine the demand for solar photovoltaic, andnon-income factors played a significant role in thedissemination. The research also confirmed that reduction in price of the equipments has a possibility
to accelerate the demands for solar photovoltaic inrural households.
The findings from China indicated that the government initiatives (e.g. subsidy) with business sector participation played vital roles in disseminating
solar water heating systems in the residential sectors. Our research confirmed that cost reduction
accompanied with technological innovation is crucial for enhanced deployment of renewable energies, and government initiatives (such as carbon
pricing, clean coal technologies, feed-in tariff) play

important role in this process.
With regards to the technologies toward leapfrogging, the possibility of nuclear energy and CCS
need to be carefully examined accounting for theacceptance of the citizens. Introduction of nuclear
energy requires close examination after nuclear
power plant accidents in Fukushima, Japan. CCS
requires technological breakthrough as well as
cost reduction.
Implementing low carbon initiatives require (1)supports from citizens and (2) fully utilizing market
mechanisms to ensure efficiency. Voices of citizens
and NGOs will be driving forces for disseminating
distributed renewable energy systems and enhancing environmental consciousness, which contributeto achieve LCS. Low carbon initiatives need to ensure policy coherence among central and local
governments, since there are some examples thathighlight lack of consistency of the policy programs
among central and local governments in Asian
countries becoming a barrier to implementation ofenvironmental programs. Policy evaluation (including cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis) is
required to ensure the efficiency and effectivenessof low carbon initiatives.

3 Low carbon development contributes to economic

development through ensuring energy security andreducing fuel import.
Currently governments in Asian countries haveinvested in renewable energy technologies and energy savings, which not only contribute to climatechange initiatives but also to establishing energy
security and reducing fuel import. Those initiatives are closely linked with regional development,poverty reduction, and preventing air pollutions indeveloping countries. Introducing renewable energy would be costly in the short run, but would
be worth investing in the long run if we account for
sharp fuel price increases and job creation in new
industries under the condition that the appropriate
policy interventions are provided.

09

Institutional Architecture for LCS
Options and processes for establishing medium tolong term international and domestic governancearchitecture towards low carbon Asia [S-6-3]

12
3

Establishing low carbon society requires equal allocation of emissions reduction
targets. Equal per-capita emission criterion deserves more attention for possible
equity consideration.
The key for effective low carbon governance architecture is the configuration ofactors and their networks.
Increasing synergies across fragmented institutions require institutional mechanisms to secure mainstreaming of low carbon policies by integrating energy andclimate policies.

International Technology Governance for Low Carbon Future?

1 The research team is working on the
allocation of emissions reductions towards
low carbon society. What level/degree of
reduction is required in order to realize alow carbon society? Who should reduce
emissions; and who should bear the10

cost? The team pays particular attention
to conceptual development for allocationof emissions mitigation among countries
and other actors, which requires insightsfrom political science and international
relations. Current debate is centeredon three criteria, namely: responsibility;
ability (or capability); and efficiency.
We argue that equal levels of per-capita
emissions should eventually be realized.
Such a criterion should take into consideration three dimensions of sustainable
development – environmental, social andeconomic. The decision-making processnecessary for realization of such a visionneeds to be further researched.

2 The establishment of a global institution
for cap and trade based on economywide emissions reduction target for major
emitters is the ideal. However, given thecurrent dynamics of diffused politicalinterests and different expectations ofinternational institutions, as characterized
by the failure of COP15, the likelihood ofsuch a situation emerging, at least in theforeseeable future, is low. A concurrent
diffusion of low carbon technology andtechnology transfer is also indispensable
if low carbon society is to be established.
Considering a strong characteristic ofglobalization to be found in multi-stakeholder involvement in various governanceactivities, the key for governance architecture for low carbon development restson the configuration of actors in suchgovernance components as agendasetting, negotiation, implementation, orcompliance. Industries and companies
which develop and utilize technology
are the key actors in this regard, andthe challenge involved in this process
is to streamline the means by which
public goods are secured through the
involvement of other crucial actors suchas international organizations and NGOs.
A technology-specific and country-specificmechanism is necessary, while inclu-

siveness of multilateralism is also crucial
to facilitate wider distribution of low
carbon technology. Such an emphasis
on multilateralism would build an institution that goes beyond the CDM (Clean
Development Mechanism).

3 Country- and technology-specific technology
institutions tend to result in fragmented
institutions with different and disparate
purposes, some of which may even lackenvironmental integrity. To avoid suchconflicts, an overriding mechanism isnecessary to secure low carbon aspect ofpolicies. We consider options, including
the creation of a UN High Commission
for Environment and Energy, and thecreation of a UN Sustainable Development Council.
We propose a transformative change
towards international institutions for low
carbon society directed by a clear vision
addressing both energy and climate, withina framework of sustainable development.

Low Carbon Technology Governance Model

11

Resource Management for LCS
Research to limit GHG emissions from the resource
consumption associated with economic growth [S-6-4]

1
2
3

Resource consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with
infrastructure, durable goods, and consumer products will increase due to economic development in Asian countries.
Efficient and cyclical use of resources can reduce certain GHG emissions. In particular, reduction of resource consumption through efficient use of resources iseffective.
As penetration of mitigation technologies is likely to cause bottlenecks in supplyof certain metal resources, systems for efficient and cyclical use of these metals
need to be developed.

This study has been undertaken in order toestimate GHG emissions from Asian countries
based on the future resource demand andmaterials production associated with infrastructure development; more general use of
durable goods; and enhanced consumptionof consumer products based on increased
demands originating from economic development and the popularization of low-carbon

technologies. This study examines thepotential of these countries to contribute to
the construction of a low-carbon society
from two points of view: (1) the supply side
- as exemplified by efficiency improvements in material production; fuel switch;secondary and renewable materials substitution; and international division of work inmaterial production and recycling, and (2)Possibility to take alternative development pathways from the viewpoint of resource consumption

12

1 In regards to infrastructure, material flow
and stock model has been developed forbuildings, roads, and railways in China,
and the demand level for steel andcement and GHG emissions associatedwith production of those materials were
estimated. The results show that GHG
emissions will increase together with theincreased demand for steel and cement
necessary for future infrastructure development in China. In regards to durable
goods and consumer products, thepenetration of automobiles in China andthe consumption of paper and paperboard in Asian countries have been
analyzed. The results show that resource
consumption and GHG emissions will
increase along with growth in demand forthese goods.

2 At the same time, the result indicates thepossibility that the lifetime extension of
infrastructure and recycling of demolition
wastes could reduce CO2 emissions
by up to 50% (see figure). In particular,
reduction of resource consumption
through lifetime extension is effective. In
regards to automobiles, it is found that thepenetration of electric vehicles in China
does not necessarily contribute to theconstruction of low-carbon society if there
is no improvement in the CO2 emission
co-efficient of electricity sector in China:
it is necessary to reduce emission
factor of electricity by energy supply
side measures. In regards to paper andpaperboard, it is shown that transformation into consumption pattern similar
to that in countries with less paper andpaperboard demand is effective, andreduction of CO2emissions of several ten
percentages is expected through technological improvements and efficient andcyclical use of resources in the production
processes.

3 The possibility of resource limitations in the
future because of the expected increase indemand for several metals necessary for
new generation vehicles and renewableenergy technologies has been analyzed.
The analysis of the relationship between
accumulated demand for these metal
resources in the future and accumulated potential CO2 reduction due to newtechnologies shows that the supply of
metals associated with electric vehicles(EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV)
could become a bottleneck. Therefore
technological development and establishment of system for efficient and cyclicaluse of these metals will be required for
effective mitigation of climate change.

Steel Production
Cement Production（Mt-CO2）

the demand side - as exemplified by reductions in material-intensive infrastructuredevelopment; changes in ownership modesof durable goods; and transformations in
consumption patterns.

Short Medium
Long
Short Medium Long
lifetime lifetime lifetime lifetime lifetime lifetime
Low-recycling

High-recycling

CO2 emissions associated with production of steel andcement necessary for infrastructure development in
China in 2050

13

Low Carbon Transport System
Research on measures to establish a low
carbon transport system in Asia [S-6-5]

12
3

CO2 emissions from transport will drastically increase due to rapid economic
growth in developing countries of Asia.
Low carbon transport systems for developing cities in Asia can be designed with
AVOID, SHIFT and IMPROVE strategies.
Early implementation of extensive and comprehensive measures is required torealize low carbon transport systems in developing cities in Asia.

IMP R OV E
Low-Emission Vehicle(LEV) Promotion

LEV Promotion+
Mass-Transit
Development

LEV Promotion
+
TOD

GV

EV

Diesel

CNG

GV

EV

DieselCNG

Mass-Transit
Development

Transit Oriented
Development (TOD)
AV OID

Mass-Transit
Development+
TOD

S HIF T

Approach to designing a Low Carbon Transport System

1 ・In the transport sector which is responsible for a large proportion of CO2 emissions, the amount of CO2 emissions has
increased rapidly due to motorisation
fuelled by economic growth. Motorisation causes urban sprawl by promoting development in suburbs, where the14

unplanned expansion of built-up area
makes public transport development
less efficient and less affordable.
・Due to the excessive level of motorisation, an urban land-use transportsystem falls into a vicious circle wheremotorisation is accelerated by roaddevelopment and urban sprawl, andbecomes the cause of escalating congestion, emissions and even economic
bottlenecks. This failure of the system
has been experienced by developed
countries and is being repeated in developing countries of Asia.

ment) proposed by the WCTRS (World
Conference on Transport Research Society). The ones suitable for Asian developing countries and cities can be
identified, such as introducing Transit
Oriented Development (TOD) and Bus
Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and promoting Low Emission Vehicles (LEV).

・In our forecast, if road development
continues to be prioritised over railway
development in Asian developing countries, car ownership would increase 2
to 10 times its current levels in Beijing,
Shanghai, Bangkok and Delhi by 2050.

3 ・It is important to identify a comprehen-

2 ・A low carbon transport system can be・Our analysis shows that, in order toachieve 70% mitigation from 2005 to
2050 in Bangkok, the city must introduce highly-advance transport technologies to the same extent as in developed cities (IMPROVE); and strong
intervention of land-use transport planning to control the expansion of built-up
areas to the current levels and develop
mass-transit networks to a level fourtimes larger than planned (AVOID andSHIFT). The challenging mitigation target can be more achievable by earlier
implementation of these strategies.

sive package of measures for the strategies to achieve the challenging target of
CO2 mitigation in transport in developing cities in Asia, using a backcasting
approach.

designed by combining three typesof low carbon transport strategies –avoiding unnecessary travel demand(AVOID); shifting transport modes tolower-carbon ones (SHIFT); and improving energy efficiency and emission
intensity of in transport (IMPROVE).
・Measures to achieve each strategy arefurther classified by instrument, including technological, regulatory, informational and economic ones, represented
as the CUTE matrix (Comparative study
on Urban Transport and the EnvironC O 2 emis s ions from pas s enger
c ars in Bangkok (Mt/year)

60
50
40

Mitigation from
IMPROVE
SHIFT
AVOID

Do Nothing

30
20
10
0
2005

CO2 mitigation Scenario
2015

2025

2035

2045 2050

15

Asia Low Carbon Societies Research Project
Project Leader
Advisory Board

Program Officer

Mikiko Kainuma (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))
Ryokichi Hirono (Professor Emeritus, Seikei Univ.)
Masahiro Kawai (Dean and CEO, Asian Development Bank Institute)
Li Zhidong (Professor, Nagaoka Univ. of Tech.)
Shuzo Nishioka (Senior Visiting Researcher, NIES / Senior Research Advisor,Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES))
Toshio Shimizu (Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies(AIRIES))
Kenji Fukuyama (AIRIES)
Takayoshi Kawai (AIRIES)

S-6-1 LCS Scenario Development
Team Leader

Toshihiko Masui (NIES)
Junichi Fujino（NIES）(Project Manager)
Kiyoshi Takahashi (NIES)
Yuko Kanamori (NIES)
Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES)
Genku Kayo (NIES)
Maiko Suda (NIES)

Tatsuya Hanaoka (NIES)
Yasuaki Hijioka (NIES)
Shuichi Ashina (NIES)
Osamu Akashi (NIES)
Yuko Iwabuchi (NIES)
Diego Silva Herrán (NIES)

Dai Hancheng (NIES)

Yumiko Asayama（NIES）

Yuzuru Matsuoka (Kyoto Univ.)
Reina Kawase (Kyoto Univ.)
Go Hibino (Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.(MHIR))
Kazuya Fujiwara (MHIR)
Kazuyo Oyamada (MHIR)
Yuji Morita (IEEJ)
Shen Zhongyuan (IEEJ)Yu Nagatomi (IEEJ)
Yoshiaki Shibata (IEEJ)
Aashish Deshpande (NIES)
Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
P.R.Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Manmohan Kapshe (School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal,
India)
Rizaldi Boer (Bogor Agriculture University, Indonesia)

Gakuji Kurata (Kyoto Univ.)
Kei Gomi (Kyoto Univ.)
Tomoki Ehara (MHIR)
Yuko Motoki (MHIR)
Kokichi Ito (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ))
Yukari Yamashita (IEEJ)
Yuji Matsuo (IEEJ)
Shigeru Suehiro (IEEJ)
Ryoichi Komiyama (Univ. of Tokyo)
Hu Xiulian (Energy Research Institute, China)
Bundit Limmeechokchai (Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Thailand)
Sirintornthep Towprayoon (The Joint Graduate School of Energy andEnvironment, Thailand)

S-6-2 Driving Forces and Barriers for LCS in Asia
Team Leader

Jusen Asuka (IGES)
Kentaro Tamura (IGES)
Takashi Otsuka (IGES)
Nanda Kumar Janardhanan (IGES)
Jiangwen Guo (IGES)
Atsushi Watanabe (IGES)
Anindya Bhattacharya (IGES)

Takeshi Kuramochi(IGES)

Masaru Ichihashi (Hiroshima Univ.)
Akimasa Fujiwara (Hiroshima Univ.)
Satoru Komatsu (Hiroshima Univ.)
Jin Chen (Beijing Normal University, China)

Nagisa Ishinabe (IGES)
Eric Zusman (IGES)
Helen Guo (IGES)
Jane Romero (IGES)
Satoshi Kojima (IGES)SVRK Prabhakar (IGES)
Shinji Kaneko (Hiroshima Univ.)
Daisaku Goto (Hiroshima Univ.)
Junyi Zhang (Hiroshima Univ.)
Latdaphone Banchongphanith (Hiroshima Univ.)
Akio Yamashita (Univ. of Tsukuba)

S-6-3 Institutional Architecture for LCS
Team Leader

Norichika Kanie (Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech.))Jin Dan (Tokyo Tech.)
Yasuko Kameyama (NIES)
Kanako Morita (NIES)

Akira Ichikawa (Tokyo Tech.)Izumi Kubota (NIES)
Masachika Suzuki (Kansai Univ.)

Masahiko Iguchi (Tokyo Tech.)S-6-4 Resource Management for LCS
Team Leader

Yuichi Moriguchi (NIES, Univ. of Tokyo)
Seiji Hashimoto (NIES, Ritsumeikan Univ.)
Kenichi Nakajima (NIES)
Ryosuke Aoyagi (MHIR)
Shigesada Takagi (MHIR)
Hidefumi Imura (Nagoya Univ.)
Feng Shi (Nagoya Univ.)

Keisuke Nansai (NIES)
Hisaya Ishii (MHIR)
Minoru Yoshikawa (MHIR)
Shinsuke Murakami (Univ. of Tokyo)
Hiroki Tanikawa (Nagoya Univ.)

S-6-5 Low Carbon Transport System
Team Leader

Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya Univ.)
Hirokazu Kato (Nagoya Univ.)
Kei Ito (Nagoya Univ.)
Atsushi Fukuda (Nihon Univ.)
Tetsuhiro Ishizaka (Nihon Univ.)
Tuenjai Fukuda (Nihon Univ.)
Sittha Jaensirisak (Ubon Ratchathani Univ., Thailand)Thaned Satiennam (Khon Kaen Univ., Thailand)
Viet Hung Khuat (Univ. of Transport and Communications, Vietnam)
Allexis Fillone (De La Salle Univ. Philippines)
Tomoya Kawasaki (Tokyo Tech.)Toshiyuki Okamura (Yokohama National Univ.)

Kazuki Nakamura (Nagoya Univ.)
Mitsuhiro Yamamoto (Nagoya Univ.)
Mikiharu Arimura (Nihon Univ.)
Teppei Osada (Nihon Univ.)
Matthew Barth (Univ. of California, Riverside, U.S.A.)
Varameth Vichiensan (Kasetsart Univ., Thailand)Paramet Luathep (Prince of Songkla Univ., Thailand)
Nguyen Van Truong (Univ. of Transport and Communications, Vietnam)
Shinya Hanaoka (Tokyo Tech.)
Fumihiko Nakamura (Yokohama National Univ.)

Contact : Asia Low Carbon Societies Research Project
Junichi Fujino, Yumiko Asayama
Address:National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
E-mail: lcs_project@nies.go.jp

November, 2011