Making our society safer
from earthquake disasterJapan Association forEarthquake Engineering

STATEMENT ON THE OCTOBER 22, 2012 VERDICT FOR SIX EXPERTS IN THE
L'AQUILA EARTHQUAKE CASE

The Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering expresses its strong concern regarding theverdict of October 22, 2012 in the L'Aquila earthquake case that sentenced 6 experts onseismology and earthquake engineering to six years in prison for manslaughter.
While the reason for the sentence has not yet been released, it is reported that after themeeting of the National Committee of Major Risks on March 31, 2009, the experts provided
incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information to the public that had been unnerved bymonths of persistent swarm tremors. However we consider that the verdict is not appropriate
because of the following three reasons.
The first is the responsibility of the six experts of the Committee. They were requested toprovide information available from the scientific knowledge about the seismic activity, andthey faithfully contributed to this request. It was the Department of Civil Protection and theCity of L'Aquila that had responsibility and authority for seismic risk inherent to the region
which contained a number of ancient and fragile constructions. The judge shifted theresponsibility of the Department of Civil Protection and the City of L'Aquila to the experts ofthe Committee.
The second is whether the experts of the Committee provided scientifically reasonablesuggestions to the inquiry of the Department of Civil Protection. Based on the meeting
minutes, the experts mentioned that since strong earthquakes in Abruzzo region had long
return periods, an earthquake like the one in 1703 was unlikely to occur soon, but its
possibility cannot be totally excluded. They also discussed there was a very limited case thatswarms preceded to a large event in the past. Based on the meeting minutes, the experts
cannot be condemned for deriving wrong conclusions based on the scientific knowledge dueto their negligence and errors in the evaluation. They accepted their responsibility to society
to support decision-making under a difficult situation of inherent uncertainty. It wasunfortunate that a Mw6.3 earthquake occurred six days after the Committee meeting, but theexperts should not be blamed because it is extremely difficult to make a short-term forecast ofa major earthquake. Learning from this bitter experience, the experts have a strongresponsibility for enhancing the scientific knowledge for earthquake forecast.
The third is the news release to the population by the Department of Civil Protection and local
government following the Committee meeting. It appears that the Department of Civil
Protection and the local government downplayed the seismic risk facing the town. The
population could have better recognized and prepared in the face of such risk if theinformation had been released together with the minutes of the Committee meeting.
Based on the Committee minutes, it was further discussed that the most important measure forpreventing damage during an earthquake is to strengthen old fragile structures so that they do
not collapse during an earthquake. It was also discussed that another important measure forprotecting population is to enhance the level of emergency preparedness. It is essential toprevent or minimize the collapse of old fragile buildings which results in death, injury anddamage. This can be achieved not by a short-term earthquake forecasting but by steady andlong-term efforts to enhance the seismic performance of buildings and infrastructures, andpost-event response measures. This was critically important in particular at L'Aquila where
there were a number of old fragile masonry constructions. It is considered that the main
source of this tragedy was due to lack of risk information on the vulnerability of fragile citythat should have been shared among the experts, the administrative organizations, owners ofbuildings and population.

November 5, 2012
President, Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering
Kazuhiko Kawashima

References
Major risks committee minutes, L'Aquila, 31st March 2009:http://www.seis.nagoya-u.ac.jp/yamaoka/iweb/NU-site/LAquila_files/cgr-english.pdf
Scientists on trial: At faults?, Nature News:
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html
Italian court finds seismologists guilty of manslaughter, Nature News:
http://www.nature.com/news/italian-court-finds-seismologists-guilty-of-manslaughter-1.11640
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation): Scientists Sued -Consequence of Earthquake Forecast, Italy-.
http://www.nhk.or.jp/documentary/1208.html