2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

IN THIS ISSUE
1

President’s Report to Colleagues

2

Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA
Board Members

4

Member News

Education Lounge
7

Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL

16 T3—Trends, Tactics & Timing: GBP/USD
Asymmetric Risk
20 2020 John Brooks Memorial Award Winner
21 Congratulations New CFTes
21 MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates
23 Calendar-at-a-Glance
25 2022 IFTA Journal—Now Available
26 IFTA Journal—Call for Submissions
27 IFTA Member Societies
27 Board of Directors
27 IFTA Staff

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

President’s Report to Colleagues
Dear Colleagues,
The year 2021 is over, and
we look back on a very turbulent time of change anddisruption. First, I would liketo take the opportunity towelcome our new directors of the board andsay thanks for all the effort and support to those
who ended their terms on the board. We hope
to see you back soon!
Still, we are facing significant challenges. Onceagain, the IFTA conference was online only, andonce again, it was a success. But it also left onequestion unanswered … What will it be like fromnow on? Online, in person, or both?

Next Issue: March 2022
Submission Deadline: February 15
Education Lounge articles: Send
submissions to newsletter@ifta.org.
All other content: Send submissions toadmin@ifta.org.
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to www.ifta.org.

The IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc. www.ifta.org, a notfor-profit professional organization incorporated in 1986.

Is technical analysis really needed to buy
and sell your assets? After all, it is Elon Musk
who disrupted our world. First he disrupted
the automobile industry, and then he turned
against Bitcoin. Now he is moving over to ourart and profession. Didn´t we teach you thatyou need to have a proper target to exit yourposition when in a profit? Not to Elon—he
instead lets Twitter decide. Is this the future ofdecision-making?
Don´t take this comment too seriously, but still,there is some truth in it. Is technical analysis still
the holy grail or will it also be disrupted? Maybe
it is the combination of the beloved methods
we've used for ages and the insights Quantsand AI offer us to get the right decision andInternational Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

timing.
Whatever it will be in the future, we are awareof the recent and upcoming challenges, andtogether we will develop proper solutions foryou and your members.

All the best,

Wieland Arlt
IFTA President

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 2Congratulations New and Re-elected IFTA Board Members(Term October 2021–October 2024)
Connie Brown, CFTe, MFTA–Marketing
Director
Nominated by: AAPTA (USA)Connie Brown founded Aerodynamic
Investments Inc. in 1996 to advance the fieldof technical research using Gann Theory. Ms.
Brown has 32 years of experience in thefinancial trading industry. She worked as afrontline trader for 12 years on S&P 500 institutional trading desks in New York andBoston and then six years managing her own
global equity futures hedge fund. Early in Ms. Brown’s career,
she was the senior S&P 500 analyst for Elliott Wave
International’s institutional division.
Ms. Brown was honored recently as the 2018 Hall of Fame
inductee by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. She
continues to practice technical analysis, actively trading fromher office in North Carolina and advising numerous financial
institutions and banks around the world on her technical strategy. Ms. Brown has written nine books. Fibonacci Analysis,
published by Bloomberg Press, won the Gold medal in the
Global 2009 Axiom Business Book Awards. Technical Analysis
for the Trading Professional is required reading for the IFTA
CFTe exams. The same book was previously required for the
CMT III certification.
Her ninth book, on Gann Analysis, titled The Thirty-Second Jewel,
was released in 2019. In two years since the late 2019 release, theindustry has named her latest book as the leading source for all
things Gann. The book covers all of W.D. Gann’s methods, formulas, and time factors as cross-referenced to Gann’s own books.

Ms. Brown is on IFTA’s Education Committee. She holds theindustry’s highest accreditation, Master of Financial TechnicalAnalysis.

Bruce Fraser–Webinar and Workshop
Directors
Nominated by: AAPTA (USA)B r u c e F r a s e r, a n i n d u s t r y - l e a d i n g"Wyckoffian," began teaching graduate-levelcourses at Golden Gate University (GGU) in
1987. Working closely with the late Dr. Henry(“Hank”) Pruden, he developed curriculum
for and taught many courses in GGU’s
Technical Market Analysis G raduate
Certificate Program, including TechnicalAnalysis of Securities, Strategy and Implementation, Business
Cycle Analysis, and the Wyckoff Method. For nearly three
decades, he co-taught Wyckoff Method courses with Dr. Pruden
and has also used this approach to the markets as the foundation of his own trading for over 35 years.
Mr. Fraser was co-founder, principal, and portfolio manager at
Pring-Turner Capital Group with Martin Pring and Joe Turner. He
has retired and now teaches the Wyckoff Method, trades, andcreates blogs and videos at Stockcharts.com. He is currently
a commentator on the Wyckoff Method for Stockcharts.com
and co-hosts a weekly Wyckoff webinar at Wyckoff Analytics.
Mr. Fraser is past-president and current chair of the Technical
Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco (tsaasf.org),
which is the oldest technical analysis society in the UnitedStates.

Tamer Gamal, CFTe, CETA–Website Director
Nominated by: ESTA (Egypt)

Tamer Gamal, CFTe, CETA, is currently thehead of Arab African International securities(AAIS) Technical Analysis Research, a subsidiary of Arab African Bank (AAIB).

With a background in engineering, Mr.
Gamal joined the financial markets industry in 1998 in the areas of thought equity/
currency trading and private portfolio management. He joined
the AAIS team in 2007. Since then, he has developed andpromoted AAIS technical analysis research with tailor-madestrategies and techniques. Starting from scratch, AAIS technical analysis research has grown in terms of coverage andquality to cover several exchanges within the MENA region.
AAIS technical analysis research expanded further to coverinternational markets, commodities, and, from time to time,
foreign currencies.
In 2011 Mr. Gamal was elected chair of board of the Egyptian
Society of Technical analysts (ESTA), following three years
as an ESTA board member. In 2008, he was awarded IFTA’s
Bronwen Wood Memorial Award for best achievement of theyear. In 2017, he was unanimously elected as IFTA vice president responsible for the MENA region. In this capacity, heeducates institutional and individual clients on the merits oftechnical analysis and why AAIS utilizes a technical rules-basedmodel to oversee clients’ requirements. Tamer is a regularcontributor to many local journals and TV shows. He is often
interviewed by Bloomberg, Reuters, and Business Monthly(American Chamber of Commerce). Mr. Gamal has held many
conferences and education seminars/programs that promote

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 3technical analysis methodology as the primary investment tool
and a proactive marketing add-on.

applicative. Mr. Rangkuti was a speaker at the 2020 IFTA Annual
Conference.

Mr. Gamal is a funds portfolio manager at Zurich Insurance
Company Ltd., a certified SIAT technical analyst, and a lecturer.
He holds a Ph.D. in economics and management of technology;
a master of science in economics, finance, and international
integration; and a bachelor’s degree in political science andinternational relations.

Mr. Rangkuti is the treasurer of AATI (Asosiasi Analis Teknikal
Indonesia). He is also a speaker on market and stock technical analysis on several TV programs and at various seminars
and workshops related to technical analysis applications forinvestors and traders.

Warren Murnane, Dip TA, CFTe, ST & I(Wealth Within)–Treasurer
Nominated by: ATAA (Australia)

Warren Murnane, Dip TA, CFTe, is the president of ATAA. He regularly makes FX/Algopresentations to the Brisbane branch of theAustralian Technical Analysts Association(ATAA) and regularly consults with other traders and academics in related trading fields.

Prior to Mr. Murnane’s trading experience,
which exceeds a decade, he had a diverse business background, including the formation and growth of several businesses (e.g., mechanical repairs/earthmoving/civil construction/
OHS consultancy, IT).

Indarwijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA–*Director(Interim)
Nominated by: AATI (Indonesia)*Appointed by the Board as Interim Director, replacing Nik Ishan
who resigned from the board.

Indrawijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA, is an asset
manager for private clients and companies
with Migliore Investment Indonesia as wellas an independent trade coach. He often
collaborates with IFTA members to sharemarket outlooks and trading knowledge. As
a trader and analyst, he researches how tosimplify WD Gann’s theory to be more

Ayman Waked, CFTe, MFTA–Vice President,
Middle East and Africa
Nominated by: ESTA (Egypt)

Ayman Waked, CFTe, MFTA, joined SIGMA
Capital in 2015 and is the managing director
and CIO. Prior to joining, Mr. Waked held various posts at a number of prominent investment banks. He is a founder of the Egyptian
Society of Technical Analysts and was chairof the IFTA Annual Conference in 2007.

Mr. Waked was the vice president of IFTA for the Middle East
and Africa from 2007–2009. He was also the president of theEgyptian Society of Tehcnical Analysts (ESTA) from 2002–2008.
Mr. Waked has been an instructor of technical analysis andcapital markets at the American University in Cairo (Instituteof Banking and Finance Department) since 2004.

Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA–Vice President,
Asia-PacificNominated by: NTAA (Japan)

Dr. Hiwon Yoon received his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Keio University inJapan. He started his business career in 1989
as a trader of Japanese stocks and derivatives at Salomon Brothers Asia in Japan and,later, in Hong Kong. From 2000–2007, he
was a director of CMD Research Ltd., where
he managed the company and analyzed

financial markets. Since 2007, he has been the president of
CMD Laboratory Inc., which holds a group of research professionals in the technical, medical, and agricultural fields whocreate models for financial markets. In 2017, Dr. Yoon founded
Bit-Algo Exchange Inc., the registered cryptocurrency exchange
dealer, and in 2019, he established CMD Holding Inc., grouping
all of his businesses.
Dr. Yoon is approaching the end of his first term as IFTA’s vicepresident–Asia Pacific and is eager to accept his second term.
He has long served NTAA as one of its councilors. Apart fromhis business, he has a keen interest in educating younger
generations on the management of venture businesses at the
Digital Hollywood University in Tokyo as a visiting professor.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 4

Member NewsThe Society of Technical Analysts(STA, United Kingdom)
The STA started this fall with a reception—"Freedom
Party,” held on Thursday 23 September at the historic
National Liberal Club building, overlooking the Thames.
This informal affair was to celebrate the new-found freedoms us Brits were at last able to enjoy.
In October, we held our first hybrid in-person and live
stream meeting at One Moorgate Place, where Anthony
Cheung, head of market analysis at proprietary tradingand EdTech firm Amplify Trading, gave an engaging presentation on how to apply macro fundamentals to shortterm trading.

Societa Italiana di Analisi Tecnica(SIAT, Italy)
In November, we were treated to a fireside chat withthe legendary John Bollinger as part of the international
speaker virtual tour series.
With the threat of Omicron, we have sadly cancelled ourChristmas party but are holding a virtual Christmas Quizinstead. We are looking forward to 2022, starting theyear joining forces with the ACI UK and The Broker Clubfor what promises to be an interesting and lively debate,
where technical and fundamental analysts will give theirview on the outlook for Crypto in 2022.

The following are recent developments from SIAT
(excerpts from SIAT’s Annual Report):
Ecosystem–One of the pillars of our activities andthanks to the relationships it allows us to undertake
more or less complex initiatives.
The SIAT ecosystem is in “bump and run.”More and more investment companies, asset management companies, banks, funds, consultancies, startups,
and universities want to collaborate with us.

Visit the STA website w w w.
technicalanalysts.com for more
information.

This is demonstrated by the magnificent collection of
event sponsorships that you can see in the attacheddocuments.

Keep in touch with us via ouronline blog, follow us on Twitter@STA_ORG or LinkedIn and like
our Facebook page.

This is demonstrated by the fact that, for the second year
in a row, the Politecnico di Milano (the best Italian university according to the QS World University Rankings2022) has asked us to patronise their Fintech & Insurtech
Observatory and that several universities (Universityof Parma, Bocconi, Bicocca University, UniBergamo,
UniCalabria, University of Bologna, etc.) invite us every
year to hold lectures on financial markets, technical analysis, and fintech.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 5risk-taking attitude of professional traders, who, by theirvery profession are more inclined toward risky behavior
than asset managers, who have a much more moderaterisk-taking attitude.
A fascinating challenge that shows once again that thedesire to investigate and experiment is part of SIAT’s DNA.
SIAT QuanTech Academy 2021: 130 institutional operators
in Castel Monastero, a luxury resort of Siena, located in the
middle of Chianti Region, equipped with 5-star services.

In addition, we decided to invest in the renovation of ourassociation’s headquarters, equipping it with the best
comforts so that both our staff and our teachers/students
could work in a technologically advanced environment
and at the same time be able to cope with and continue tooffer our services despite the current health emergency.

Welcome to our new home!

SIAT Trading Campus 2021: San Siro Hippodrome. Every
opportunity to get together, laugh, and eat well. Life is too
short not to.

Events–Direct consequence of the previous point.
The year 2021 began with a new ambitious and cuttingedge project that SIAT has chosen to support and promote
in collaboration with excellent researchers and prestigious
Italian and international organizations and universities,
such as the APC Microbiome Institute in Ireland and the
Italian Institute of Technology, aimed at disseminating
new knowledge and innovative approaches to the worldof technical analysis, finance, and beyond—research that
feeds a new way of operating in the financial sphere.

Furthermore, in November there was a third event dedicated exclusively to the institutional world, where asset
managers, analysts, academics, and scientists discussed
the latest trends in technological innovation applied tomarkets.
Finally, it is impossible not to bring to your attention the
19 meetings—with high social impact—of last year and theeight of this year on financial literacy that SIAT carries out
under the patronage of the Italian Ministry of Economic
Development.

In recent decades, various disciplines—neuroscience,
economics, and psychology—have been interested indiscovering how internal mechanisms, such as brain circuits and genetics, and external ones, such as stress,
nutrition, and the environment, have a decisive influenceon the thought processes involved in decision-making. A
third factor has now been discovered: the gut microbiota.

SIAT QuanTech (Virtual) Conference 2020

It was very interesting to analyze in two different (physical) events how intestinal nutrition and its interaction with
the immune and central nervous systems can affect theIn addition to coverage in the most important Italian
media, SIAT is continuing its project of writing SIAT
Magazine.

Publications–Because, as the Latins used to say,“verba volant, scripta manent” (Spoken words fly
away, written words remain).

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

The magazine is based on the idea of sharing culture andon the conviction that all together we are better preparedthan each person taken individually.
It is a magazine that fully embraces the main aim of theassociation, which is that of “pursuing an ever higher
degree of professionalism among its members, the dissemination of technical analysis to the outside world, andthe interchange of ideas with similar foreign associations.”
It is an open-source magazine, where if all participate andshare the results, the information will be better—a thinktank where contributions and ideas can be exchanged
between members and the outside world; an advanced
research point to produce culture and education; a nonfundamental and noncommercial journal, where the pointof view of the academic world, trading, and asset management converge.

page 6

Education–Our core remains the master’s degree intechnical analysis.
The numbers are staggering: 95 new colleagues havetaken the exam to become affiliated members, and thisyear (2021–2022), 53 people have already enrolled in themaster’s programme, which starts in October.
2018–
2019

2019–
2020

2020–
2021

Master's degree
enrollments

41

46

51

Examinations enrolled

34

49

95

Record numbers for our association!

In addition, we have a data science module and someon-demand courses to broaden our training offer.

The board of directors consists of: Davide Bulgarelli, President Marco Mione, VP & IFTA Liaison
 Eugenio Sartorelli, VP Gerardo Murano, Member Enrico Malverti, Member Luigi Gai, Member
 Davide Capoti, Member
The next elections will be in March 2022.
Presented by,
Marco Mione, VP & IFTA Liaison

New future colleagues during the examination to become
affiliated members.

Quarterly magazine with attention to every detail.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 7

Education Lounge

Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL
By Christoph T. Wildensee, Ph.D., MFTA
In my thesis for the Master of Financial Technical Analysis (thesis title: “Intraday-TradeOptimization Via Fibonacci-DLL”), published in the 2022 IFTA Journal. I presented a way
to create a DLL with Lazarus, in which all prices to a share are indicated in the courseof the day. This curve of prices, however, represents only the change points over therespective day (update every minute is enough, not every 30 seconds as shown in thethesis). From this, the Fibonacci auxiliary/support lines are drawn from a firmly definedsecant formation to the trend. If, after the update, the new value rises above or falls
below the relevant lines, it is probably a trend reversal. This is not a proof, but in highpercentage, coherence it is an exciting approach.
Now, at this point, a representation extension is to take place. On the one hand, it
concerns a visual representation of the changes, expressed in a line between left
and right secant value, the further course with the then-current price value and theacting Fibonacci lines (procedure ShowFiboLines), on the other hand with a simple
representation of rise and fall of the course as plus-minus-string (example +++---+++--+-++-; procedure PlusMinusString). Finally, a database connection to a Microsoft
Access database should be possible if it exists (procedure DBexists and DBAccess).
The control for this is also shown.

1. Secant Display
The secant display of the continuously changing share price is called up when the shareprice is updated. Provided that the two values on the left and on the right for the secant
formation are unequal empty, drawing is called via
if ((valueleft <> 0) and (valueright <> 0)) then ShowFiboLines(valueleft, valueright);
procedure TForm1.ShowFiboLines(v_left: Double; v_right: Double);var
diff1: Double;

diff2: Double;
diff3: integer;
factor1: integer;high1: integer;
width1: integer;
dir1: String;right1: Double;
left1: Double;
nv: Double;
posend1: integer; // y-position of right end point to display new value = right secant
point
begin
right1:=v_right;
left1:=v_left;
nv:=right1;
if (length(LabelNewValue.Caption)>1) then// after latest update = length of newvalue <> 0
begin
nv:=StrToFloat(LabelNewValue.Caption);// nv = new valueend;
high1:=PaintBox1.Height;			
// paintbox.height in app = 90 points
width1:=PaintBox1.Width;			// paintbox.width in app = 462 points
high1:=round(high1/2)+5;			
// = 90/2 = 45+5 = 50
width1:=round(width1 -(width1 mod 100)-20);
dir1:=’ ‘;					// string includes direction string at
Paintbox1
with PaintBox1 do begin
Canvas.Clear; 					// paintbox is empty
diff1:=abs(right1-left1);
if (diff1 >= 0) then factor1:=round(high1/2);// factor checks difference of target

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

values toif (diff1 >= 1) then factor1:=round(high1/5);// different modi like a zoom
if (diff1 >= 2) then factor1:=round(high1/9);// paintbox: left up: 0,0, right down:
462,90if (diff1 >= 3) then factor1:=round(high1/12);// so need to spread diff-results
if (diff1 >= 4) then factor1:=round(high1/15);// that the diffs have more space// pos. direction
if (fiboricht1 = true) thenbegin
dir1:=’pos.’;
if (diff1 > 0) thenbegin// Trend = right - left
diff3:=round(diff1*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clRed;
Canvas.Line(0, high1, width1, high1-diff3);
posend1:=high1-diff3;// Fibonacci Auxiliary lines// now f162
diff2:=abs(right1-altef162a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clGreen;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// now f150
diff2:=abs(right1-altef150a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clBlue;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// now f138
diff2:=abs(right1-altef127a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clYellow;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// now lines other side// now f38
diff2:=abs(right1-altef38a);page 8

Education Lounge
diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clYellow;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// now f50
diff2:=abs(right1-altef50a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clBlue;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// now f62
diff2:=abs(right1-altef62a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clGreen;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1-diff3, width1, high1-diff3);// Textout important information like secant left/right & direction & factor
Canvas.TextOut(0,0,’F-Step: ‘+EditFStepLeft.Text+’_’+EditFStepRight.Text+’ Direction:‘+dir1+’ New Value: ‘+FloatToStrF(nv, fffixed, 5,2)+’ Factor: ‘+IntToStr(factor1));
end;
end;
// neg. direction
if (fiboricht1 = false) thenbegin
dir1:=’neg.’;
if (diff1 > 0) thenbegin// Trend = right - left
diff3:=round(diff1*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clRed;
Canvas.Line(0, high1, width1, high1+diff3);
posend1:=high1+diff3;// now f162
diff2:=abs(right1-altef162a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clGreen;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// now f150
diff2:=abs(right1-altef150a);

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clBlue;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// now f138
diff2:=abs(right1-altef127a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clYellow;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// now lines other side// now f38
diff2:=abs(right1-altef38a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clYellow;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// now f50
diff2:=abs(right1-altef50a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clBlue;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// now f62
diff2:=abs(right1-altef62a);diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clGreen;
Canvas.Line(width1-50, high1+diff3, width1, high1+diff3);// values as a text on paintbox.canvas
Canvas.TextOut(0,0,’F-Step: ‘+EditFStepLeft.Text+’_’+EditFStepRight.Text+’ Direction:‘+dir1+’ New Value: ‘+FloatToStrF(nv, fffixed, 5,2)+’ Factor: ‘+IntToStr(factor1));
end;
end;
PaintBox1.Canvas.TextOut(0,14,’l: ‘+FloatToStrF(uelinks, fffixed, 5,2));
PaintBox1.Canvas.TextOut(width1+8, 14,’r: ‘+FloatToStrF(uerechts, fffixed, 5,2));// last part of the line in red like trend line
diff2:=right1-nv;// block ok, because without abs()
if (fiboricht1 = true) then// pos. direction
begin
diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);

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Education Lounge
Canvas.Pen.Color := clRed;
Canvas.Line(width1, posend1, width1+30, posend1+diff3);
end;
if (fiboricht1 = false) then // neg. direction
begin
diff3:=round(diff2*factor1);
Canvas.Pen.Color := clRed;
Canvas.Line(width1, posend1, width1+30, posend1+diff3);
end;
end;
PlusMinusString(StringGridValues, 4, ‘x’, 3, LabelPlusMinus); // start Plus-Minus-Stringend;
It is necessary to show the target of that data-driven implementation. The Points A and
B as the left start and right end point of the secant develop in the right direction to A’
and B’ every time when a new change point is identified.

Figure 1: Showing the mathematical base/trend reversal trigger.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

At this point it is necessary, too, to show a curve with negative direction. So we cansee that the support lines are defined above and below starting from the right point of
the secant as the master point with 100%, the above lines with 62, 50, 38%, the lines
below as a result with 127, 150, 162%. It is only interesting that the blocks of 38-62 and127-162 are correctly defined.

Figure 2: Negative Direction of Fibonacci Support lines [METATRADER5].

2. Recognition of the Curve Progression
It is useful to be able to recognize with a quick glance how the values have changed
during the day. This is of course already done by the TChart - element. Nevertheless, I
would like to show how the last 20 values of the course of the price can be displayed
via the variable “plusminus1” as a plus-minus-string.

page 10

Education Lounge
procedure TForm1.PlusMinusString(SG: TStringGrid; ColSeperator: integer; Seperator1:
String; ValueColPosition: integer; LabelPlusMinus: TLabel);[...]plusminus1:=’’;
for i:=1 to maxvalues do
begin
Value1[i]:=’’;			
// Array of Double to store values of the stock (every
minute)end;
for i:=1 to 20 do
begin
Diff1[i]:=0;			
// we need only the last 20 differences (max)end;LabelPlusMinus.Visible:=false;				
// L a b e l t o s h o w t h e
Plus-Minus-String
LabelPlusMinus.Caption:=’’;
LabelPlusMinus.Refresh;// Ident and Insert Valuefor i:=SG.RowCount-1 downto 1 do
begin
if ((TRIM(SG.Cells[ColSeperator,i]) = Seperator1)) then// Seperator for change points
is „x“
begin
anz:=anz+1;
Value1[anz]:=SG.Cells[ValueColPosition, i]; 		
// store values min. 7, max. 20
end;
end;
p:=0;
plusminus1:=’’;
if (anz > 6) then				// min. 7 => if not 7, don’t want
to display
begin
q:=(anz-19);		
if (q <= 1) then q:=2;// create delta and show
for i:=anz downto q do

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 11

Education Lounge

Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

begin
p:=p+1;tryvaluest1:=StrToFloat(Value1[p]);valueen1:=StrToFloat(Value1[p+1]);
diffvalues:=(valuest1-valueen1)*-1;
Diff1[p]:=diffvalues;
except//end;
end;// plusminus1 and display in Label LabelPlusMinus.Caption
for i:=1 to 20 do
begin
if (Diff1[i] < 0) then plusminus1:=plusminus1+’+’; //vice versa, because diffvalues * -1
if (Diff1[i] > 0) then plusminus1:=plusminus1+’-’; // equal 0 = not relevant
end;
end;
i:=length(plusminus1);// plusminus1 vice versa
if (i >= 7) then // only if length(plusminus1) >=7
begin
for t:=i downto 2 do
begin
k:=k+copy(plusminus1, t-1, 1);
end;plusminus1:=k;			// showing the invers string
LabelPlusMinus.Visible:=true;
LabelPlusMinus.Caption:=plusminus1;
LabelPlusMinus.Refresh;
end;

Figure 3: Application with Extension (Fibonacci Support Lines, left + right points of the secants).

Figure 4: Plus-Minus-String.

Figure 5: F3-Extension (5-Block, Max-Min-Points).

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

Figure 6: Maybe change at the point of latest minimum value.

3. Database Access
The programmed functionality asks on exit/quit if the data should be saved as txt fileon c:\temp. It may be useful to save the data additionally in a (local) database, here
Microsoft Access, to be able to evaluate/analyze them later. So, if in the same directoryas the DLL or Application the file HistLine.dsn with the content[ODBC]
DRIVER=Microsoft Access Driver (*.mdb)
UID=admin
UserCommitSync=Yes
Threads=3
SafeTransactions=0
PageTimeout=5
MaxScanRows=8
MaxBufferSize=2048
FIL=MS Access
DriverId=25
DefaultDir=
DBQ=db_name.mdb
and the target database (here db_name.mdb) are available, the data is stored there.
The appropriate structure setup in the database is assumed (table Hist and the corresponding fields as shown in the SQL-INSERT-Statement). The call to the databasecheck is made via
if (MessageDlg(‘Quit:’, ‘Do you want to quit?’, mtConfirmation,

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then
begin
DBexists;// dbexists1 = application variable = false or true
if ((dbexists1 = true) and (StringGridValues.RowCount-1 > 1)) thenbegin
if (MessageDlg(‘Save in Database:’, ‘Do you want to save the Values in the Database?’,mtConfirmation,[mbYes, mbNo],0) = mrYes)
then
begin
DBAccess(datnam1);// store with name in variable datnam1
end;
end;
Application.Terminate;
end;First, it is checked whether the database exists at all.
procedure TForm1.DBexists;
begin
dbexists1:=true;//check connection
try
ODBCConnection1.Connected:=false;
ODBCConnection1.FileDSN := ExtractFilePath(ParamStr(0))+’HistLine.dsn’;
ODBCConnection1.Connected := true;
ODBCConnection1.KeepConnection := true;
SQLTransaction1.DataBase := ODBCConnection1;
SQLTransaction1.Action := caCommit;
SQLTransaction1.Active := true;
SQLQuery1.DataBase := ODBCConnection1;
SQLQuery1.UsePrimaryKeyAsKey := false;
SQLQuery1.SQL.Text := ‘select * from Hist’; // Hist is the table in the database
DataSource1.DataSet := SQLQuery1;
SQLQuery1.Open;IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

exceptdbexists1:=false; // if not correct, then dbexists1=false
end;
try
ODBCConnection1.Connected := false;
except//end;
end;
Saving the data in the database starts with the following procedure.
procedure TForm1.DBAccess(Titel: String);
var
title1: String;i1:integer;
begin
// *
i1:=0; title1:=Titel;// Store in Database (must be the same path as the application or dll ,// correct db-structure is essential)[…]// when DB exists and Values are in the StringGridif ((dbexists1 = true) and (StringGridValues.RowCount-1 > 1)) then // values in StringGrid
begin
try
SQLQuery1.SQL.Clear;
SQLQuery1.SQL.Add(‘INSERT INTO Hist(Content, Date1, Time1, Name1, Value1, Chk, F_left, F_right, F38, F50, F62, F127, F150,
F162, F38_Change, F50_Change, F62_Change, F127_Change, F150_Change, F162_
Change, MinMaxChange) ‘+‘VALUES (:a, :b, :c, :d, :e, :f, :g, :h, :j, :k, :l, :m, :n, :o, :p, :q, :r, :s, :t, :u, :v);’);
for i1:=1 to StringGridValues.RowCount-2 do
begin// transfer variables to the database, stringgrid.cols store data
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘a’).Value := title1;

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SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘b’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[0,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘c’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[1,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘d’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[2,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘e’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[3,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘f’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[4,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘g’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[5,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘h’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[6,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘j’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[7,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘k’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[8,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘l’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[9,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘m’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[10,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘n’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[11,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘o’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[12,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘p’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[13,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘q’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[14,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘r’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[15,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘s’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[16,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘t’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[17,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘u’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[18,i1];
SQLQuery1.ParamByName(‘v’).Value := StringGridValues.Cells[19,i1]; // 20 Cols (0-19)
SQLQuery1.ExecSQL;
SQLTransaction1.Commit;
end;
exceptShowMessage(‘Store into Database was not successful!’);end;[…]
At the end, it is important, too, to display differences between values, in this example
the difference between the max and min value of the trading day. Additionally, the lastvalue on yesterday can be displayed because there you can see the starting trend fortoday. See Figure 3.
procedure TForm1.ButtonUpdateClick(Sender: TObject);[…]// LabelEndYesterday => search last value yesterdayIFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

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Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

SuchStart := 0;
SuchStart := FindInMemo(MemoHTMLText, ‘Vortag’, SuchStart + 1); // search stringin side code
if (SuchStart > 0) thenLabelTextPosition.Caption := ‘Found at Memo1.SelStart[‘+IntToStr(SuchStart)+’] !’// if found, store position
else
LabelTextPosition.Caption := ‘No position found!’; // else 0
LabelTextPosition.Refresh;// show String with value
LabelEndYesterday.Font.Color:=clGreen;
LabelEndYesterday.Caption:=copy(MemoHTMLText.Text, SuchStart+35 , 15);
if (length(LabelEndYesterday.Caption) = 0) then LabelEndYesterday.Caption:=’./.’;
Wertzerlegen1(LabelEndYesterday.Caption); // String cut, only value, no chars
try
diffyester:=(StrToFloat(LabelH.Caption)-StrToFloat(LabelEndYesterday.Caption));// LabelH = highest value of the day = maxLabelEndYesterday.Caption:=LabelEndYesterday.Caption+’ / diff. (value first today last yesterday): ‘+FloatToStrF(diffyester, fffixed, 5,2);
except//end;
if (diffyester < 0) then LabelEndYesterday.Font.Color:=clMaroon;
LabelEndYesterday.Refresh;end;(and in the Part of RateCourse at the end: // procedure TForm1.KursBewerten; )[...]if ((length(low1)>0) and (length(max1)>0)) then
begin
[...]
diffmaxminusmin:=StrToDouble(max1)-StrToDouble(low1);end;
if (diffmaxminusmin > 0) then
begin
try
LabelMaxMinusMin.Caption:=FloatToStrF(diffmaxminusmin, fffixed, 5,2);

LabelMaxMinusMin.Font.Color:=clGreen;
LabelMaxMinusMin.Refresh;
except
//
end;
end;
end;

4. Conclusion
4.1 Important Settings
With this functionality it is possible to see the course of the day change points, but
it is clear that it does not work in the first hour of the trading day, because there are
not enough values. The program works well only at the moment, when both secants
are filled (if not, TLabel in red with caption: DO NOT PAY ATTENTION. NOT ENOUGH
VALUES!). After that hour it works accurately, unless the curve development makes too
many movements in too many short intervals. This leads to unspecific auxiliary / support
lines, that offer no help while the change points are displayed. But you can see every
time the trend of the curve development. In a final version, perhaps the buttons „Read
Values“ and „Clear“ should be invisible after all.
I decided to change the F-Step definition. In my thesis, I showed the F-Step like 2_8(means two steps from right point, eight change points in the left direction). The better way as shown in the application is to change it into 8_2, because the data input isshown in this direction. However, this is not really essential. (Notice: The best startingtime of the DLL is near 8:00 in the morning (German time zone), so that it starts alreadyat 9:00 with some past change points and can develop time-optimized support lines
between 9:00 and 10:00, that near 10:00, the support lines are showing according to
the expected/anticipated results. Otherwise, there is a need to wait maybe more than
one hour to get the correct interpretation.)
Additionally, there is a need to be sensitive with the IT-System Formats, because if
the IT-System is not in a German format setting, obtaining values and date and time
formation are points of crashing the application. So, the DefaultFormatSettings must
be implemented like

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

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Extension of the Intraday Fibonacci-DLL continued

DefaultFormatSettings.DecimalSeparator := ‘,’;DefaultFormatSettings.ThousandSeparator := ‘.’;DefaultFormatSettings.DateSeparator:= ‘.’;DefaultFormatSettings.TimeSeparator:= ‘:’;DefaultFormatSettings.CurrencyDecimals:=2;
DefaultFormatSettings.ShortDateFormat:= ‘dd.mm.yyyy’;
DefaultFormatSettings.ShortTimeFormat:= ‘hh:nn’;DefaultFormatSettings.LongTimeFormat:= ‘hh:nn:ss’;in the FormShow Event.
4.2 Theoretical Supplements
In principle, models that persuade the user that a share price trend is only to be considered as a function of time and thus suggest that time is the only relevant factor andthat other influencing variables can be completely relegated to the background areproblematic. Time certainly plays an important role, but there are also considerable
influences and correlations with other variables such as press releases, annual financial
statements, competitive situation and cooperations, even geostrategic aspects (seee.g., Gazprom) that do not result in clearly definable variable assignments (see e.g.,
Schmelzer [2009], p. 21ff., 125). In these “stochastic processes, the essential goal oftime series analysis is to fit an existing time series into a linear model in such a way thatthe structure of the data is reproduced as best as possible, and the estimated model
parameters allow a forecast in the form of a statistical extrapolation.” (Schmelzer [2009],
p. 28; translated) It should not be hidden that such models have their demonstrable
successes and that research supports them under certain conditions (see e.g., Rostan etal. [2020]). To this extent, such a digression is not included here. Maybe it will be more
a topic with AI focus. But it should be noted that for the above time series analyses in(higher versions of) Delphi, among other things, there is a paid supplement available
via „Dew Lab“ / „Dew Research“ [DEWLAB]. (A Machine Learning Extension can maybe
be implemented with Python4Delphi, it should work also with Lazarus.) It is to be left
open whether an assistance via Fibonacci support lines is more suitable. However, thepresented procedure should also not show the suitability, but only the possibility of theuncomplicated functional integration.
4.3 Way to Extensions
Finally, the approach shows that different users get identical results when looking at thesame data. So, the approach is comprehensible and reproducible. It can be assumed

that it can be further developed and, if necessary, enriched with additional data.
The handling of Lazarus (Delphi [Embarcadero] equivalent; cross platform Rapid
Application Development) and its outstanding possibilities of the problem/solution
structuring and programming is to be emphasized. It is unproblematic with a little programming experience to develop high-quality applications; I had already explained thisin 2020 (see Wildensee [2020]). Also, the production of DLLs opens a further field forthe functional extension of (foreign) software products under Microsoft Windows [havean additional look to DLL via Matlab & Delphi: Sun/Cui/Xu (2014)]. See this complete
project at Wildensee (2021a) and Wildensee (2021b).

References
DEWLAB: Dew Lab Studio for Delphi 2021, High performance numerical, statistical and dsp library forDelphi/C++, https://dew-lab-studio-for-delphi.software.informer.com/2021/.
METATRADER5: MetaTrader 5 Help - Fibonacci Retracement, https://www.metatrader5.com/en/terminal/
help/objects/fibo/fibo_retracement.
Rostan et. al. (2020): Options trading strategy based on ARIMA forecasting, emerald 2020, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PRR-07-2019-0023/full/
pdf?title=options-trading-strategy-based-on-arima-forecasting.
Schmelzer (2009): Die Volatilität von Finanzmarktdaten - Theoretische Grundlagen und empirische
Analysen von stündlichen Renditezeitreihen und Risikomaßen, Diss. Köln 2009, https://kups.ub.uni-koeln.
de/2730/1/dissertation.pdf.
Sun/Cui/Xu (2014): Design and Implementation of a Time-frequency Analysis System for Non-stationary
Vibration Signals Using Mixed Programming, International Journal of Hybrid Information Technology Vol. 7,
No. 6 (2014), pp. 283-294, https://gvpress.com/journals/IJHIT/vol7_no6/24.pdf.
Wildensee (2020): Fachbereichsspezifischer Entwicklungsansatz zur bedarfsgerechten Analyse SQLbasierter Datenquellen. In: PRev Revisionspraxis 1/2020, S. 7-13, http://www.wildensee.de/laz1.pdf.
Wildensee (2021a): http://www.wildensee.de/fibo_ext.zip.
Wildensee (2021b): http://www.wildensee.de/AlsDLLAufruf.zip.

Christoph Wildensee has a Ph.D. in business administration. He is a well-known
auditor and data/process analyst at enercity AG in Hannover, Germany.
Christoph’s special focus is on finding errors and optimization potential in IT
systems relevant to accounting, including, in particular, the Energy Trade andRisk Management (ETRM) system, which is used to handle all energy trading
activities at enercity. He was also a member of the team evaluating the new
Pioneer/Hitachi-ABB ETRM system.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

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T3—Trends, Tactics & Timing
GBP/USD Asymmetric Risk
By Ron William
GBP/USD asymmetric risk, after the Deja vu failure near 1.40-1.40 price zone. Thisechoed a similar bearish sentiment at the 2018 peak, after the Brexit crash lows of
1.1840 (Figure 1).
Tactical market proxies also signal growing headwinds (Figure 2). Option market sentiment based on “Risk-reversal” is turning negative after flat-lining for almost a year
(Figure 2).
This indicator tracks the difference between call and put options, showing trader’s
inclination to make bearish or bullish bets on each currency vs. USD.
Against GBP, bullish USD bets are increasing, while bullish USD demand vs. EUR reached
its highest since June 2020. Both risk-reversal trends naturally capture mounting USD
bullishness. Watch the DXY key level at 95 for evidence of further gains.
Fig 1. GBP/USD daily line chart, 200-day MA, regression analysis and probability distribution.

Additionally, GBP is also being pressured by global macro dynamics. The UK runsa basic balance deficit. This means portfolio inflows, both in equities and bonds areneeded to finance the trade deficit. These portfolio flows accelerated this year but are
now relapsing.
The risk is that a correction in global equity markets (MSCI ACW), as predicted by our
Roadmap model, could pressure the divergent trend lower (Figure 3).

Rare price-time confluenceFig 2. GBP/USD Risk-Reversal Sentiment.

Fig 3. MSCI ACW Index and GBP/USD.

Rare price and time confluence warns of GBP/USD asymmetric risk ahead. Figure 4 highlights a multi-decade line in the sand at $1.40, which the major rate failed under during
early 2021. A greater historical rhyme can be found in the powerful 8-year cycle patternthat has coincided with each major low on GBP/USD since the end of Bretton Woods.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

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T3—Trends, Tactics & Timing continued

It includes 1985 (Plaza Accord), 1992/3 (ERM Crisis), 2000/1 (TMT Crash), 2008/9 (GFC),
and 2016 (Brexit). The midpoint anniversary of this cycle also recently alerted a changeof sentiment post-COVID, into 2021. According to the life-cycle pattern developed by
Tony Plummer, “Sterling is in a Transition Cycle – which is the first cycle of an evolutionary phase. Normally, this means a sell-off that alters belief systems.”

Fig 4. GBP/USD YTD performanceFig 5. GBP/FX basket vs. 200-day trend.

GBP/EUR “Momentous” breakout above €1.20?
Fig 4. GBP/USD historical chart, multi-decade level at $1.40, near mid-cycle.

GBP/FX bifurcated performance
In the near-term, GBP is likely to extend broad weakness vs. other G10 currencies, withsome bifurcated performance. GBP/USD and GBP/CAD already exhibit negative YTD
performance, with GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/EUR nearby (Figure 4).
Figure 5 shows the technical distinctions vs. 200-day trend average. GBP/USD, GBP/
CHF, GBP/CAD trade below this benchmark, while GBP/EUR, GBP/JPY, and GBP/AUD
still hold above, with potential upside scope ahead.

GBP/EUR serves as a useful sentiment proxy of the UK’s Brexit developments. This isparticularly important amid the current rise in geopolitical risk premium and ongoingtrade tensions. Furthermore, interest rate expectations are bombed out in the euro area
relative to the UK. A modest reset in relative rate expectations could ignite the FX rate,with BOE hike expected soon.
In technical terms, a price move above €1,19 signals a resumption of the uptrend backinto an important make-or-break zone near €1.2080/90. A sustained rise would confirm
a “momentous” breakout, targeting higher altitudes into €1.32. This projection would
be in line with traditional market geometric behaviour. “The bigger the base, the higher
in space”. Only below 1.1655 (200-dMA) risks this view.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4
T3—Trends, Tactics & Timing continued

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Education Lounge
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience working forleading economic research and institutional firms, producing macro researchand trading strategies. He specializes in blended, top-down, semidiscretionary
analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist, and performance coach. He uses
the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science, and stress response management, including mindfulness andcoherence training.

Fig 6. GBP/EUR multi-year chart, with short-term focus.
Disclaimer & Disclosures
No information published constitutes a solicitation, or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any
investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by RW Advisory (RWA) for personal use
and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice.
RW Advisory (RWA) makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date.
In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or
any other decisions be made solely based on thecontent.
All opinion is based upon sources that RW Advisory (RWA) believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate andcomplete, RW Advisory (RWA) makes no such claim.

Limitation of Liability
RW Advisory (RWA) disclaims, without limitation for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct orconsequential damages.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright protected by RW Advisory (RWA) and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxedor distributed without the express permission of RWAdvisory (RWA).

Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), gained
global industry recognition, with multiple finalist awards for "Best Specialist Research/& FX." Hismarket insights are also featured regularly across leading financial media programs, notably,
Volatility Re-awakening and Tech Sector, and industry publications, including Equity Market
Crash: What Next?, Bitcoin-Digital Asset Paradigm, and Bond Yield Spike Risk.

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IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 20

2020 John Brooks Memorial Award WinnerThis paper is presented for the best Master of Financial Technician (MFTA) research paper written each year.
Shinji Okada, CMTA, CFTe, MFTA

Tokyo, Japan
shinjiokadaresearch@gmail.com
Member of Nippon Technical Analysts Association (NTAA–Japan)
MFTA Research Paper Title: Observation of Yield Point of Trends
Shinji Okada majored in political science at Nihon University
Graduate School of Law and after graduation, started his business career at Securities Japan Co. Ltd., Tokyo, where he engaged in the salesof various securities (e.g., Japanese/U.S. equities, fixed income, and investment
trusts), through which he became interested in the practical applications of technicalanalysis. As his interest in technical analysis grew, he learned that so many investors
tended to sustain losses, panicking at various trend turning points. It is this experience that has drawn him to the research of the regression analysis of trends to findtheir turning points, making the best use of famous
technical analysis tools(e.g., Dow Theory, Elliot
Wave Theory, Bollinger
Bands). In March 2020,
he joined Quick Corp. andhas mainly been engaged
in planning and providing
new and better information services to financial
institutions while continuing his research in technical analysis.

In Memory of John Brooks
John Brooks was a highly respected technical securities analyst who worked at severalof the prominent Wall Street firms, including Edwards & Hanley, Robinson Humphrey, andLowry Research, where he served as senior vice president and senior analyst.
During his long and distinguished career, John was the co-founder and past presidentof the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and was one of the first recipients of theChartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in the United States. In 1985, he cofounded the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) and served as chairman
from 1996 to 1998. As the long-time chairman of the Market Technicians Association
Educational Foundation, John was instrumental in establishing accredited college-levelcourses in technical securities analysis in many universities.
John was also a co-founder of the American Association of Professional TechnicalAnalysts (AAPTA) and served on its board of directors. John authored the highly regarded
book Mastering Technical Analysis, published by McGraw-Hill in 2005. His many
awards include the prestigious Market Technicians Association Award for Outstanding
Contribution to the Field of Technical Analysts and the Technical Securities Analysts
Association of San Francisco’s Lifetime Award for Outstanding Achievement in TechnicalAnalysis. In recognition of his support of technical securities analysis throughout theworld, John was also named a Fellow of the British Society of Technical Analysts (STA).

Past winners of the award:
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014

Kersten Wöhrle, MFTA (Germany)
Dr. Oliver Reiss, CFTe, MFTA (Germany)
Alexander Spreer, MFTA, CIIA, CEFA,
CFTe (Germany)
Tomoya Suzuki, Ph.D., MFTA (Japan)
Miyoko Nishimura, CMTA, CFTe, MFTA
(Japan)Adam Cox, MFTA (New Zealand)

2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008

Alex Neale, MFTA (United Kingdom)
Yoshinobu Sakai, CFTe, MFTA (Japan)
Stephan A. Belser, CFTe, MFTA
(Germany)
Mohamed Elaasar, MFTA (Egypt)
Pavlos Theodoulos Ioannou, MFTA,
CFTe (Cyprus)
Francesco Caruso, MFTA (Switzerland)

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 21Congratulations New CFTes!

MFTA and CFTe Exam Dates

Norshahida BT Ahmad Fuad (STA)
Sofea Arriana (STA)
Charikleia Avgousti (STA)
Marc-Antoine Barbé (AFATE)
Ariffin Bin Abdullah (STA)
Mohd Alif Bin Ahmad (STA)
Mohd Ameruiddin Bin Ahmat (STA)
Rohaizi Bin Bahari (STA)
Mohd Azizi Bin Darus (STA)
lr. Ts. Sudalli bin Haj Sabtuahim (STA)
Ahmad Farid Bin Mohamed (STA)
Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohamed (STA)
Aiman Bin Mohd Zuhali (STA)
Abdul Nequief Khan bin Razali (STA)
Ahmad Hafizol Helmi Bin Rusli (STA)
Syazwan Syafiq bin Satria Sarawak (STA)
Muhammad ’Adli Bin Wan Ahmad Uzir
(STA)
Muhd. Zubair Bin Zain Al-aabideen (STA)
Dr. Ahmad Aizudeen Bin Zakaria (STA)
Mohd Firdaus Bin Zulkefili (STA)
Ton Nur Aisyah Binti Wan Mohd Zaini (STA)
George Gabriel Ujai (STA)

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I

Indrawathy Gunasegaran (STA)
Stefan Hafenrichter (VTAD)
Wan Mohd Hafiz bin Wan Met (STA)
Dylan Francis Allan Hanrahan (ATAA)
Ahmed Ahmed Elsayed Ahmed Hindawy
Mohd Fakhrul Islam Juhali (STA)
Suhaib Kamarudin (STA)
Roslinah Laikoi (STA)
Haziq Ruzaini Mazlan (STA)
Mohamad Nurhafizul Mohd Hosni (STA)
Anisah Ozleen Othman (STA)
Dr. Syed Shafwan Redhauddin (STA)
Haslina Samsuddin (STA)
Marcus Senninger (VTAD)
Syahirul Ikhsan Shaharuddin (STA)
Lovelesh Sharma
Ian Shenton (CSTA)
Philip Arthur Sheppard (STA)
Muhsin Tarmizi (STA)
Brahm Bramwell Wesso
Mohanad Yakout
Ahmad Firdaus M Zainol (STA)
Azri Zainul (STA)

Date

Offered Year-roundSee our website for further instructions www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II

2022

Exam dates

21 Apr 2022

TBD Oct 2022

Registration deadline

10 Mar 2022

TBD Sept 2022

Register at https://ifta.org/application-forms/cfte-ii-application/
Syllabus and Study Guide www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/IFTA_CFTe_Syllabus.pdf
For more information on the CFTe program, visit www.ifta.org/certifications.

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)

2022–2023

Alternative Path Pre-Application Deadline

28 Feb 2022

Application/Outline Deadline

2 May 2022

2 Oct 2022

Paper Deadline

15 Oct 2022

15 Mar 2023

(Session 1) Register at https://ifta.org/application-forms/mfta-application-session1/(Session 2) Register at https://ifta.org/application-forms/mfta-application-session-2/

31 July 2022

Don’t Get Caught Inside
When You Can Be
Hanging Five
OK, so truth be told, we had a fairly heated discussion at Elliott
Wave International over the direction of this ad. Do we gostraight serious, like just about every other ad? Or do we show
our playful side, in the hope that you won’t just skip past it likeall those other ads?
Because on the one hand, the Certified Elliott Wave Analyst(CEWA) designation is dead serious. The CEWA program is
the standard for Elliott wave analysts. But at the same time, theWave Principle is gnarly, dude – why surf the chop with the
kooks when you could be rippin' the best waves with the locals.
And so, in an exclusive arrangement with our buds at IFTA,
EWI now offers the Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA)
designation for the coolest dudes: Elliott wave pros, analysts
and traders.
Your CEWA designation lets everyone know that you're alegend in the practical application of the Elliott Wave Principle,
one of the most recognized forms of technical analysis. With
CEWA you can finally paddle out away from the crowds andfind some open water where you can shoot the curl.
Show your CEWA designation to potential employers andprospective clients, so they know YOU know where the bombs-- and the grey fins -- lurk.

Get Started. Visit www.elliottwave.com/wave/GetCertified“Is it just me, or has Wilson gained someconfidence since he became a CEWA?”IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 23

Calendar-at-a-Glance
Date

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

ContactMonthly Presentations from local and international speakers on a comprehensive range of
topics (e.g., sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, FOREX trading, methodologies,
money management, psychology).

Topic

STANZ

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://stanz.co.nz/

Monthly Monthly Meetings are held monthly in nine cities across Australia. All monthly
meetings are free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend. Bookings are
not required. Visitors are welcome, first visit free.

ATAA

VariesVaries, or online

Varieshttps://ataa.asn.au/

Monthly Monthly Meetings & Events: The STA holds monthly meetings in London, usuallyon the second Tuesday of every month, except for a summer break in August.

STA

VariesOne Moorgate Place, Chartered
Accountants Hall,
1 Moorgate Place,
LondonVarieshttps://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

2022
Jan
Feb

No events scheduled for January at this time
15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-March
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

28

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path, Session IFTA
1 application deadline

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

Mar

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA),
Session 2 paper deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

April

21

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

21

STA (UK) Diploma, Part 2

STA (UK)

NA

OnlineAll day

https://www.technicalanalysts.com/
meetings/

1

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II - registration opens for
October examination through IFTA website.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-June
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

May

Jun
Jul

No events scheduled for June at this time
31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

Continued on page 24

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 24

Calendar continued
Aug

15

Sept
Oct

Nov

Dec

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-September
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

No events scheduled for September at this time2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), Session 1 paper deadline IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

20

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

NA

Varies or online

TBA

1

IFTA 2023 Journal Web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/
publicatons/journal/

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for all news content (mid-December
release)

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org; https://ifta.org/

No events scheduled for December at this time

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 42022

page 25

NOW AVAILABLE

We are pleased to announce that the 2022 IFTA Journal is now available for viewing
and download from the IFTA website.
"...despite the pandemic, there is still an IFTA Journal. Not business as usual, butnevertheless as normal as possible."—Dr. Rolf Wetzer, CFTe, MFTA, Journal Editor
A special thanks to Dr. Rolf Wetzer, CFTe, MFTA, Editor of the IFTA Journal
Inside this issue:
MFTA Papers
Observation of Yield Points of Trends
By Shinji Okada, CMTA, CFTe, MFTA
Intraday-Trade-Optimization Via Fibonacci-DLL
By Christoph T. Wildensee, Ph.D., MFTA
Articles
The EMD Oscillator
By Dr. Oliver Reiss, CFTe, MFTA
Splitting Noise and Useful Signal in the S&P 500 Members Correlation Matrix
By Carlos Jaureguízar, Ph.D., and Sandra Nieto
NAAIM Paper
Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Book Review
The Taylor Trading Technique
By George Douglas Taylor Reviewed by Regina Meani, CFTe
Tribute to Welles Wilder—In Remembrance
A Farewell to One of the Greatest Technical Analysts in History“I am always ready to learn although I do not always
like being taught.” 			—Winston Churchill

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 26

CALL FOR SUBMISSIONS
Submitting Contributions

Licenses and CopyrightLanguage

We may publish online. We require that you place yoursubmission under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial 3.0.

The IFTA Journal is the only international journal withoriginal contributions from all continents covering developments in technical analysis in global markets. The
Journal reaches leading practitioners and students oftechnical analysis throughout the world.

Writing Style

Unless another license is noted, we will assume thatyour contribution is under this license.

The IFTA Journal is a major professional resource. Itsarchival online publication on the IFTA website will makeyour original work available as a future resource to theworldwide community of technical analysts.

Referencing

The IFTA Journal is an annual publication establishedby the International Federation of Technical Analysts. It
is collated by a committee of IFTA colleagues. The IFTA
Journal is essential reading for academics, students, andpractitioners of technical analysis in all arenas. It contains
a wealth of resource material and is an excellent reference for anyone interested in technical analysis.

Credibility and Recognition

TopicsIFTA is seeking papers that cover developments impacting, either directly or indirectly, the field of technicalanalysis; they may be drawn from such areas as:
•
•
•
•
•
•

Basic market analysis techniques
Indicators—sentiment, volume analysis, momentum, etc.
Global and intraglobal technical analysis
Styles of technical analysis
Data
The changing role of technical analysis in the investment community

We would especially like to see contributions that draw
from areas not previously examined and/or topics tangential to technical analysis.
The above list is just a guide and should in no way beconsidered restrictive. We wish to make the Journal
open to new and innovative ideas from all areas of technical analysis and those that connect with it.

Registration and submission of contributions is
online via http://www.ifta.org, or by email to the editor at journal@ifta.org.
Contributions must be submitted in English, with British
grammar required.
Pa p e r s s h o u l d b e w r i t t e n i n a t h e s i s s t y l e.
A guidance can be found at the following link:
http://www.ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/
MFTA_Thesis_IFTA%20Journal_Guide.pdf

We require all submissions to include the author’s signature on the Publication Agreement at the end of thisdocument.

Editorial Timeline
DecemberCall for papers distributed

All texts referred to in the paper must be appropriately
referenced in a list of "References" at the end of the
text. Further, all notes are to be included as endnotes("Notes"). A Bibliography is not to be included.

May 31

Deadline for all submissions

May 31

Papers distributed for review

The author is responsible for the accuracy of referencesand quotations. We expect the author to check themthoroughly before submission.

July 31

Reviewer’s comments returned to editor

August 15

Notification of acceptance/rejection

August 31

Submission to printerOctober

Conference distribution

November

Web publication

Figures, Charts, and Tables

Illustrations and charts must be referred to by figure
number and source. Tables must be referred to by table
number and source.

Length of Contribution

Papers should be approximately 1,200 to 3,000 words,
with supporting graphs and charts.

FormatWe ask for submissions in MS Word or other text format,
as well as a PDF. Charts and graphs may be in .GIF or.JPG, but we ask that authors also keep a .TIF format
in case it is required for printing purposes. An Excel
spreadsheet supporting your submission may also be
included.

For more information, see our website:www.ifta.org/publications/journal/.

IFTAUPDATE 2021 Volume 28 Issue 4

page 27

IFTA Member Societies

Board of Directors

EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org

President Wieland Arlt, CFTe (VTAD)
wieland.arlt@ifta.org

AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.asn.au
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
HONG KONG—FTAA Financial Technical Analysts Association www.ftaa.org.hk
INDIA—ATA Association of Technical Analysts www.tataindia.org

INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia www.aati.my.id
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts www.lstalebanon.com
MALAYSIA—MATA Malaysia Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts www.malaysianchartist.com
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
PHILIPPINES–STAP* Society of Technical Analysts Philippines www.technicalanalysts.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SPAIN—IEATEC Instituto Español de Analistsas Técnicos y Cuantitativos www.ieatec.es
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.com*Developing Society

IFTA Update Schedule

The IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 7,000+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficient and costeffective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
March Issue

All content due February 15

June Issue

All content due May 15

September Issue

All content due August 15

December Issue

All content due November 15

Send Education Lounge article submissions to newsletter@ifta.org. Send all other content to admin@ifta.org.
For more information and to advertise, visit our website: www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/.

Treasurer Warren Murnane, Dip TA, CFTe, ST & I (Wealth Within) (ATAA)
warren.murnane@ataa.asn.au
Secretary and Membership Director Alek Jankowski, BE, M.Eng.Sc., Grad.Dip.Mgt. (ATAA)
Alek.Jankowski@ATAA.asn.au
Vice President Middle East and Africa Ayman A. Waked, MFTA, CFTe (ESTA)
aymanwaked@yahoo.com
Vice President Europe Clive Lambert, MSTA, CFTe (STA)
clive@futurestechs.co.uk
Vice President Asia-Pacific Hiwon Yoon, Ph.D., CMTA (NTAA)
yoon@cmdlab.co.jp
Vice President The Americas Jeanette Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S. (AAPTA)
optnqueen@aol.com
Examination Director Gregor Bauer, Ph.D., CFTe, (VTAD)
gregor.bauer@vtad.deMarketing Director Constance Brown, MFTA, CFTe
support@aeroinvest.com
Webinar and Workshop Director Bruce Fraser (AAPTA)
rdwyckoff@me.com
Website Director Tamer Gamal, CFTe (ESTA)
tgamal@gmail.com
Director Francesco Caruso, MFTA (SIAT)
info@cicliemercati.it
Director Giovanni Trombetta, CFTA, Electronic Engineer (SIAT)
giovanni.trombetta@gandalfproject.com
Director Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA (NTAA)
higashino3z@gmail.com
Director Indarwijaya Rangkuti, MBA, CTA (AATI)
indra_senna@gmail.com

Staff

Executive Director Kristen LeBlanc, MPA, CAE
Senior Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich, CAE
Senior Marketing Director Julie Hill
Production Manager Maryia Alenchyk
Managing Editor Lynne Agoston
Director of Accounting Services Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
1300 Piccard Drive, Suite LL 14
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org