Highlights 	Coordinator:	  Ken	  XS	  Hao	  (郝 憲生)	  Representa5ve:	  Hiroyuki	  Fujiwara	  (藤原広行)	  12/06/13	

防災科学技術研究所 	

What	  lessons	  we	  have	  learnt	  from	  the	  Tohuku	  M9	  earthquake.	  	  	  “The	  borderless	  world	  of	  Science”	  à	  enabling	  knowledge	  and	  data	  exchange	  each	  others.	  
Subduc5on	  zones	  à	  Crossing	  border	  connect	  the	  world	  12/06/13	

	      TEM	NIED		  	  	   Fujiwara	   	  :	  	  Seismic	  Hazard	  Assessment	  for	  Japan	  aPer	  the	  2011	  Tohuku	  Eq	  H.	  	  K.	  Hao 	  	  :	  	  Probabilis5c	  seismic	  hazard	  assessment	  in	  general	  issues	  K.	  	  :	  	  	  Earthquake	  probability	  mapping	  and	  hazard	  mi5ga5on	  program	  	   Wen	   	  	  N.	  Morikawa 	  :	  	  Scenario	  earthquake	  shaking	  maps	  in	  Japan	  S.	  	  :	  	  	  3D	  waveforms	  simula5on	  for	  earthquakes	  and	  scenario	  events	  	  	   Lee	   	  	  S.	  Aoi	  	  :	  	  Strong	  mo5on	  observa5on	  networks	  in	  Japan	  S.	  	  	  :	  	  	  Seismic	  network	  and	  earthquake	  rapid	  report	  in	  Taiwan	  	  	   Lu	  	  H.	  Matuyama	  	   :	  Construc5on	  of	  the	  detail	  3D	  velocity	  structure	  C.	  	  :	  	  	  Seismic	  proﬁles	  from	  TAIGER	  project	  	   Wang	  	  	  Li	  	  :	  	  Calibra5on	  on	  the	  3D	  velocity	  structure	  of	  Taiwan	  	   Zhao	   	  	  H.	  Nakamura 	  :	  Earthquake	  Early	  Warning	  in	  Japan	  Y.	  	  :	  	  Developing	  of	  Earthquake	  Early	  Warning	  in	  Taiwan	  	   Wu	   	  	  T.	  Maeda	  	  :	  Long-­‐period	  ground	  mo5on	  simula5on	  of	  great	  Nankai	  Trough	  EQ	  K.	  	  :	  	  	  Building	  up	  Finite-­‐Fault	  models	  for	  ground	  mo5on	  predic5on	  program	  	   Ma	   	  	  Asako	  Iwaki 	  	  ：Synthesis	  of	  high-­‐frequency	  ground	  mo5on	  in	  Kanto	  area	  Y.	  Yen	   	  	  :	  	  Synthesis	  of	  high-­‐frequency	  ground	  mo5on	  using	  Empirical	  G.F.	  
J.	  Yeh	   	  	  :	  	  Taiwan	  Earthquake	  Loss	  Es5ma5on	  	 12/06/13	

National seismic hazard maps for Japan	
Long term evaluation	

Probability of occurrence, magnitude, location	Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
・Showing the strongmotion intensity with agiven probability, or the
probability with a given
intensity.
12/06/13	

・Considering all possible
earthquakes.

Strong-motion evaluation	

Strong-motion, undergroundstructure	

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps	

・Showing	  the	  strong-­‐mo5ointensity	  around	  the	  fault	  	  for	  a	  speciﬁed	  earthquake.	  	  	Strong-motion maps considering low-probability earthquakes	

1,000 years	

10,000 years	

100,000 years	

How	  to	  give	  the	  warning	  or	  message	  to	  public,	  	  for	  unexpec5ng	  event,	  or	  low	  probability	  but	  destruc5ve	  events,	  	Major earthquakes on active faults and subduction zone with low-probability. 	  	  Regarding the PSHA for low probability, at presen it is insufficient to evaluate the uncertainty for
low probability of	  M8-­‐class earthquakes and it is necessary to improve techniques for them.	

How to reduce the variation of uncertainty• GMPE => PGA and PGV (now in PSHA, but, large
variance in values)• Requirement of a fine 3D velocity structure formodeling of high frequency.
• Fault Segment, geometry, mechanism
Steps: PSHA => Simulation-based PSHA (Japan)
To reduce the variation.

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps	
The shaking maps are evaluated for 490 scenario earthquakes ofalmost all of major faults in Japan.	

Selec5on	  of	  a	  speciﬁed	  scenario	  is	  essen5al	  to	  make	  a	  shaking	  map.	  The	  basic	  policy	  of	  the	  selec5on	  of	  a	  scenario	  earthquake	  is	  that	  we	  choose	  the	  most	  probable	  case.	  	  For	  treatment	  of	  uncertain5es,	  we	  assume	  several	  cases	  of	  source	  model	  and	  compare	  the	  results	  of	  them	  to	  show	  devia5on	  of	  strong-­‐mo5on	  evalua5on	  due	  to	  uncertain5es.	  1st-­‐order	  velocity	  layered	  model(1)	
Depth distribution of the upper surface of example layers	

Upper surface of the layer No.25(Vs = 2.1km/s)	

Upper surface of the seismic bedrock(Vs > 3.1km/s)	

Characterized	  source	  model	  for	  the	  Nankai	  trough	  earthquakes	
• Source	  areas	  (	  14	  cases	  x	  3	  )	  u Single-­‐segment	  earthquake	  •••••Nankai	  (ANNKI:	  Mw	  8.5),	  	  Tonankai	  (ATNKI:	  Mw	  8.2),	  	  	  Tokai	  (ATOKI:	  Mw	  8.0),	  	  	  Hyuga-­‐nada	  (AHGND:	  Mw	  8.3),	  	  and	  along	  the	  trough	  (ATRGH:	  Mw	  8.1)	  	  	  3	  cases	  (a,	  b,	  c).	  
––––Mul5-­‐segment	  earthquakes	  2-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	3-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	36	  hours/	  1	  scenario	  60000	  steps	  (120	  Hz)	  Itanium	  1.66GHz×256Core	  Memory	  130	  GB	  u Mul5-­‐segment	  rupture	  simultaneously	  – 2-­‐segment	  rupture	  • Nankai	  +	  Tonankai	  (ANNI1:	  Mw	  8.7)	  • Tonankai	  +	  Tokai	  (ANNI2:	  Mw	  8.4)	  – 3-­‐segment	  rupture	  • Nankai	  +	  Tonankai	  +	  Tokai	  (ANNI3:	  Mw	  8.8)	  4-­‐segment	  rupture	  	  	– 4-­‐segment	  rupture	  • 3-­‐segment	  +	  along	  the	  trough	  (ANNI4:	  Mw	  8.9)	  • 3-­‐segment	  +	  Hyuga-­‐nada	  (ANNI5:	  Mw	  8.9)	  – Seismic	  moment	  are	  calculated	  using	  scaling	  model	  Maps	  of	  Peak	  ground	  velocity	  (PGV)	  and	  	  Velocity	  response	  (Sv)	
Maximum	the	  sedimentary	  wedge	  greatly	  contributes	  Median	to	  the	  genera5on	  of	  long-­‐period	  ground	  mo5ons	

Interquar5le	  range	  (IQR)	

Long-­‐period	  ground	  mo5ons	  in	  the	  Kanto	  basin	  are	  rela5vely	  large	  for	  most	  cases.	

Long-­‐period	  ground	  mo5ons	  in	  the	  Osaka	  and	  Nobi	  basins	  are	  greatly	  inﬂuenced	  by	  a	  few	  speciﬁc	  scenarios.	  	  New	  Release	  	  	  www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/intl/cjk	
Con5nuously	  Prac5ce	  	  	   	  	  à	  	  	  Trilateral	  coopera5ve	  program	  	  enabling	  knowledge	  data	  exchange	  	  Supported	  by	  each	  individual	  coun5es	  Goal	  	  	  	  12/06/13		  	  	  à	  	  convergent	Island	  arc	  of	  Taiwan	  and	  Japan	

Prepara5on	  for	  	  Un-expecting events	
Thank	  you	  for	  your	  aGen5on