1974
World Population Year

THE POPULATIONOF
THE PHILIPPINES

CI.CR.ED. Series

POPULATION
OF THE PHILIPPINES

Population Institute
University of the Philippines

Mercedes B. Concepción
EditorPopulation of the Philippines
Prepared by the Population Institute,
University of the Philippines,
Republic of the Philippines.

Copyright 1977
Population Institute, University of the Philippines
Manila, Philippines

Preface

A N ANALYSIS of the population situation in thePhilippines was first undertaken in 1965 utilizing
available census information and inadequate vitalstatistics. Since then, the country has undertaken two
demographic surveys on a nationwide scale, the first in1968 and the second in 1973. These surveys were carriedout by the University of the Philippines Population
Institute (UPPI) with the collaboration of the thenBureau of the Census and Statistics—now known as the
National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO)—withfunds provided by the Ford Foundation and the UnitedStates Agency for International Development (USAID)
respectively. Based on these data, several country
reports have been written for various purposes. The
latest attempt, which appears in subsequent pages, wasprepared as a contribution to furthering the objectivesof World Population Year, 1974.

The authors of the individual chapters are all staff
members of the Population Institute. Their contributions represent a concerted effort in putting together
data from various sources and interpreting them in thelight of the peculiar setting that is the Philippine
archipelago. Other monographs will no doubt be written
in the future as data sources expand and provide moreaccurate information on the dynamics of humannumbers.

It is hoped that the present analysis will introduce thereader to Philippine population facts and figures andlead him to an understanding of their implications foroverall development.
As is usual in any group endeavor, acknowledgment ismade to all the authors and to their research assistantsfor the analyses presented in this monograph and to
Mrs. Socorro Garcia-Roque whose devotion to theInstitute's concerns has made this printed version a
reality.

MERCEDES B. CONCEPCIÓN
Dean, UPPIContents

Population Growthby Aurora E. Perez

1

Components of Growth
by Elíseo A. De Guzman

9

Population Composition
by Elíseo A. De Guzman

35

Population Distribution
by Aurora E. Perez

61

Labor Forceby Imelda A. Zosa95

Population Policy and Family Planningby Mercedes B. Concepción

115

Population Projections
by Dionisia R. delà Paz

129

Social and Economic Implicationsof Population Growthby Ernesto M. Pernia

143

Tables and Figures

Population Growth
Table 1. Population Growthin the Philippines,
1591-1975
Figure 1. Population Growthin the Philippines,
1591-1975;
Components of Growth
Table 1. Estimates of the Crude
Birth Rate, 1903-70
Table 2. Average Number of Children
Ever Born per EverMarried Woman; 1939-73
Table 3. Fertility Indices for
Three Five-Year Periods,
1958-72
Table 4. Age-Specific Marital Fertility
Rates for All Womenof Various Birth Cohorts(Rates per 1000 married
women as of 1973)
Table 5. Average Number of Marital
Live Births Before and After
Age 35 for Birth Cohorts ofEver-Married Women Aged
35-39; Philippines 1973

7

7

11

12

13

15

16

Table 6.

Indices of Marriage Pattern
for Females, 1903, 1939,
1960, and 1970: 45 Provinces
Table 7. Fertility Ratios of Women
25-29 by Selected
Characteristics, 1968 and 1973
Table 8. Estimated Crude Death Rates
for the Philippines, 1903-71
Table 9. Crude Death Rates byMajor Regions: 1973
Table 10. Death Rates by
Leading Causes: 1946-72
Population Composition
Table 1. Enumerated Male and Female
Populations of the Philippines
and Sex Ratios for Census Years
Table 2. Sex Ratios of the Population
by Age Group, 1903-70
Table 3. Sex Ratios by Regions and by
Broad Age Groups, 1970
Table 4. Sex Ratios by Regional
Divisions and by
Residence, 1970
Table 5. Percentage Distribution by
Age Group, 1903-70.
Table 6. Population of the Philippines
by Age and Sex as Reported
in 1960 and 1970 Censuses
and Per Cent Change(Population in Thousands)
Table 7. Percentage Distribution of
the Philippine Population by
Sex and Residence, 1970
Table 8. Age Structure of the
Population by Region, 1970
Table 9a. Percentage Distribution of
Persons Aged 15 and Over byAge, Sex, and Marital
Status: Philippines, 1960

18

20
26
27
29

36
36
37

38
39

40

41
42

44

Table 9b. Percentage Distribution of
Persons Aged 15 and Overby Age, Sex, and Marital
Status: Philippines, 1973
Table 10. Percents of Females Single byAge, and Singulate Mean
Age at Marriage: 1903-73
Table 11. Proportions Single and Singulate
Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM)
by Age, Sex, and by Region, 1973
Table 12. Percentage Distribution ofHouseholds by Number of
Persons, 1968 and 1973
Table 13. Percentage Distribution ofHouseholds by Family Typeand Residence, 1968 and 1973
Table 14. Percentage Distribution ofHouseholds by Age and Place ofResidence of Household Heads,
1968 and 1973
Table 15. Percentage Distribution ofPopulation with College Degrees
by Sex and Major Field of
Study, 1970
Table 16. Distribution of Population by
Religion and Per Cent
Change: 1960 and 1970
Population Distribution
Table 1. Sex Ratios by Broad Age-Groups
and Locale, 1970
Table 2. Rates (Percentages) and
Rank-Order of In-Migration,
Out-Migration, andNet Migration,
Birth-to-1960, in
the Philippines, by Regions
Table 3. Rates (Percentages) and
Rank-Order of In-Migration,

45
46
48
50
51

53

55
57

66

73

Out-Migration, and Net
Migration 1960-to-1970, in thePhilippines, by Regions
Table 4. Index of Effectiveness of
Selected Migration Streams
Before and After 1960
Table 5. Index of Effectiveness of
Migration Streams, Birth-to1965 and 1965-to-1973, By Sex
and Type of Migration Flow
Table 6. Age-Specific Sex Ratios by Typeof Stream for Lifetime
Migrants, Birth-to-1965
Table 7. Percentage Distribution andRank-Order of Migration
Streams for Two Intervals:
Lifetime, Birth-to-1965 andPeriod, 1965-to-1973
Table 8. Age-Specific Sex Ratios of.
Migration Streams for Period
Migrants, 1965-to-1973
Table A. Population, Land Area andDensity of the Philippines
by Region: Censal Years
1960 and 1970
Table B. Indicators of Migration
Volume and Pattern by Regionof Residence in 1970
Table C. Lifetime and Period Migration
Between Less Developed andMore Developed Regions in
the Philippines: Birth-to-1960
and 1960-to-1970
Figure 1. Density Map of the Philippines
by Regions
Figure 2. Age-Sex Distribution ofPhilippine Population in the
Urban and Rural Sectors, 1970
Figure 3. Volume of Lifetime Migration,

74
76

77
79

80
81

84
85

86
87
88

Birth-to-1960 in the Philippine
Regions: 1960 Census
Figure 4. Volume of Period Migration,
1960-to-1970 in Philippine
Regions: 1970 Census
Figure 5. Types of Migration Streams
in the Philippines Before andAfter 1965

89
90
91

Labor ForceTable 1. Population and Labor Force in1960 and 1970
Table 2. Male and Female Labor Force
Participation
Table 3. The Labor Force 10 Years Old
and Over Who Were Employed
and Unemployed, 1960-70
Table 4. Trends in Industry of the
Employed Labor Force
Philippines, 1960-70.
Table 5. Trends in Industry Groups of
the Employed Male Labor
Force, 1960-70
Table 6. Trends in Industry Groups of
Employed Female Labor Force
1960-70
Table 7. Trends in Occupation of the
Employed Labor Force,
Philippines, 1960-70
Table 8. Occupations of Employed
Males, 1960-70
Table 9. Occupations of Employed
Females, 1960-70
Table 10. Trends in Class of Workersof the Employed Labor
Force, Philippines, 1960-70
Figure 1. Age-Specific Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960 and 1970
Figure 2. Age-Specific Labor Force

96
97
102
105
106
107
108
109
110
Ill
99

Participation of Urban and
Rural Areas, 1970
Figure 3. The Structure of Unemployment, May 1970 Census,
Philippines

100
104

Population Policy and Family Planning

Table 1. Eligible Population, Numberof Acceptors and Users, 1970-77Table 2. Two-Year First Method and
All-Method Continuation
Rates and Failure Rates
Philippines, 1970-72
Table 3. Trend in Contraceptive Method Mix:
FY 1971-75 (Adjusted Figures)

120

122
123

Population Projections

Table 1. Projected Male and Female
Populations by Five-Year
Age Groups and by Five-Year
Intervals, 1970-2000 (000's)
Table 2. Projected Total Population
and Per Cent Increase:
Philippines, 1970-2000
Table 3. Population Density as Estimatedfrom the Various Population
Projections: Philippines,
1970-2000
Table 4. Structure of the Philipine
Population (In Percentages)
by Broad Age Groups, 1970-2000
Table 5. Dependency Ratios According
to Various Population Projections for the Philippines, 1970-2000

133-135
136

137
138

139

THE GROWTH OF
POPULATIONAURORA E. PEREZ

THE PHILIPPINES, a cluster of islands strung 500 miles off

the southeast coast of Asia, has Japan, Korea, andTaiwan to the north, Vietnam and Thailand to the west,
and Borneo to the south. The China Sea lies on the west
and north, the Sea of Celebes and the coastal waters ofBorneo on the south, and the Pacific Ocean along theeastern seaboard. The archipelago's 7,100 islands (approximate) are scattered over 1,152 miles from north tosouth and measure 688 miles at the widest point, fromeast to west. Philippine territorial jurisdiction extends
over 300,000 square kilometers or 116,000 square miles.
A glance at current distribution maps shows a heavy
concentration of people in the two largest major islands,
Luzon (central and northern areas), and Mindanao far,down south. Each has an area of more than 1,000
square miles, and their individual populations geographically present a pattern of population built-up areas,
resulting in population densities exceeding the national
level.
Compared to other countries, the Philippines has avery high density. As of 1975, around 140 persons were
found in every square kilometer, and in mid-1975, theNational Census and Statistics Office (NCSO) estimatedthat density will be between 239 and 322 persons per square
kilometer at the turn of the century.
1

2

THE GRO WTH OF POPULA TION

Geographical Structure. Despite territorial fragmentation and great diversity in size among the islands, acommon geographical structural foundation is evident.
A mountainous spine, from 3,600 to 6,000 feet high,extends longitudinally through the country. Flanking themountain ranges are zones of rolling uplands andfoothills that descend toward the sea. Narrow sprawling
lowlands parallel the coasts. This explains the agricultural base of the nation's economy. (Of the total
employed, more than half are found performing
agricultural activities while close to two-fifths areengaged in non-agricultural tasks.) However, abundantnatural resources have yet to be tapped; of 17.2 million
hectares of arable land, only 41 percent is farmed. As acountry well endowed with natural resources, thePhilippines has still to realize its vast potential.
Climate. The climate is tropical, marked by mild
temperatures varying from 60°F to 100°F. It seems thatan opportune combination of warm-sea insularity andlow latitude has blessed the archipelago with mild anduniform temperature. There are two marked seasons—the dry and the wet—which generally vary in duration.
Common observation pegs the dry season from March
to June while the wet season, abetted by the monsoon,
extends from July to October. The most agreeable timeof year is from November through February withpleasant sunny days and cool nights.
Administrative Divisions. The country's basic political
geography reflects the reorganization of population
distribution directly attributable to Spanish missionary
efforts in colonial times. Ordinarily, there is a spatial
hierarchy of at least three or four levels of magnitude
for the areal subdivisions (usually administrative units)
for which population data are derived and published. As
established by the Spanish conquerors, the pyramid of

Perezareal units consists of the following, in ascending order:
barrios, poblaciones(or city districts), municipalities, cities, provinces, and regions.1 At the top of the
pyramid is the primary civil division,the region, and thepyramid is subdivided further until it reaches the broadbase, the small locality.
These units still survive today and have increased in
number. As of May 6, 1970 the entire country had 67
provinces, 59 cities, 1,445 municipalities or towns
grouped into 11 regions. Changes in physical boundaries
and annexations in recent times, however, have increased
the number of provinces to 73 and cities to 60 (NCSO,
1975).

Population before 1900
Pre-Colonization. Traditional Filipino villages dotted
the narrow island coasts in pre-colonial times, a legacyof Malay sea migration into the country. Most of thesmaller islands remained uninhabited, as the native
population was very sparse. Plasencia (1909) notes thatmost villages were nothing more than 30 to 100 houses,with populations that commonly varied between 100 to
500 persons (Plasencia, 1909).
^Theareal units which constitute the spatial hierarchy are defined as follows: abarrio is the smallest recognizable political area; a población is usually the centerof a municipality and is commonly the site of the administrative government
agencies; the city and the municipality are the autonomous units that make upa"province," derived from the Spanish word provincia. The province is thelarger administrative subdivision, which when grouped together based on
geographic proximity and socio-economic integration, form a "region."^"Barangay" isa small kinship group of 30 to 100 families which was the basic
unit of political and social organization in the pre-Hispanic period. It was also
used to identify a slender boat, tapered at both ends and held together bywooden pegs. Its revival as a basic unit of organization today was effected
through a reformatory movement of the country's New Society under martial
law. There are approximately 42,000 barangay units in the country today.

4

THE GRO WTH OF POPULA TION

Spanish narratives, however, reveal a tremendous
range in barangay 2 size; some were tiny hamlets of only
20 to 30 people. Most communities rimming the narrow
Visayan coasts then were merely villages of eight to ten
houses (Loarca, 1909). A handful were "giants."
Manila had about 2,000 inhabitants and Cebu was only
slightly smaller. The settlement of Cainta, located eastof Manila, had 1,000 persons. Several agglomerations of
700 to 1,000 members were also reported in Mindanao.
Period of Colonization. At the start of the Spanish
conquest, total Philippine population exceeded threequarters of a million. The first census of Spanish
tributos(taxpayers) totaled 166,903. It was estimatedthat each tributo represented the taxpayer and threedependents. Based upon an average family size of four
persons, a total of 667,612 souls were registered in the"Relación de las Encomiendas"3 in 1591. At the timeof enumeration, Spanish sovereignty was confined to thelowlands of Luzon and the Visayas. Early chroniclers
estimated an additional 75,000 to 150,000 persons in theheavily forested mountains of the islands north of
Mindanao.
The war between Spain and Holland, forced labor,
and epidemics of cholera, smallpox, and influenza thenraging through the Islands severely slashed Philippine
populations in the early part of the 17th century. The
earliest cholera epidemic recorded was in Manila (about
1628); by 1655, population was estimated at 510,000.
The 1880s witnessed another tragic epidemic thatclaimed about 1,300 lives a day. Worcester (1899)^This is a report to King Philip II of Spain executed by Gov. Gomez
Perez Dasmariñas. An encomienda was defined as a privilege from the
Spanish Crown to deserving colonists to collect taxes or tributes from the
population residing within the specific area. In return these grantees werecharged with the spiritual and temporal care of their wards. The
encomienda system generated our first moderately accurate reports, astaxes were assessed according to population.

Perezreported 15,000 to 20,000 deaths caused by epidemic
diseases. The country, however, experienced increments
to its population during the succeeding years.
The first official enumeration of the population was
taken in 1877. Royal decrees issued at decennial
intervals instructed that similar censuses be taken. The
census enumeration of 1877 recorded the population at
5,567,685. Following counts until the beginning of the20th century registered minimal increments. A notabledecrease from the initial census enumeration of 1877
was observed in 1897. Estimates of population wereplaced at 5,490,229. History states that the last of the
Spanish civil censuses was only partially completed
and the returns ruined during the troubled years that
followed.

Population after 1900
Since the beginning of the twentieth century, sevenpopulation enumerations have been undertaken.
After Spain ceded the Philippines to the Americans at
the close of the nineteenth century, the U.S. government
conducted three enumerations: the first in 1903, thesecond in 1918, and the last in 1939. Following
independence and upon installation of its own government, the country carried out its first official census in
1948, followed by the one in 1960 and another in 1970.
The most recent enumeration, in May 1975, for the firsttime sought data on the people's means of livelihoodan important factor in development.
In 1903, the Philippines had 7,635,426 persons.
Comparing this figure with that of 1877, an increase ofabout 37 per cent was recorded for the interval of 26
years. The annual growth rate then was about 1.3 percent. Completion of the second census in 1918 revealed

6

THE GROWTH OF POPULA TION

an incremental 1.9 per cent in the annual rate ofincrease over that of the previous census. By 1939,
population reached a total of 16,000,303, indicating an
accelerated rate of increase attributable mainly to
improved health and sanitary conditions, increased foodproduction, better diets, and in general, the widespread
education of the people. The data on population in 1939
indicated a 2.2 per cent annual rate of increase.
After 1939, population growth declined somewhat, asa result of the internal disorder that characterized theperiod. There was the war fought against the Japanesein the early 1940s; the ensuing years of struggle resulted
in substantial loss of manpower. Two years after gaining
independence in 1946, the country's population numbered 19,234,182. The annual growth rate for the period
1939-1948 was 1.9 per cent, a level wrought by the war's
destruction.
In 1960, some 7,853,503 persons, were added to the1948 count, an increase which was more than twice theincrease of the preceding census years. Even more
pronounced was the growth which occurred during thefollowing intercensal period 1960-1970 (see Table 1).
The average annual growth rate of 3.01 per cent during
the decade, representing an additional 9.6 million
persons, gave the Philippines the 16th largest populationin the world, ranking her 7th in Asia (Figure 1).
Like most developing countries in the Southeast Asian
region, the Philippines today has not yet resolved the
problem of rapid population growth. In a preliminary
report on the census held May 1, 1975, the NCSO
estimated the total population at 41,831,045. Based on
this estimate, the annual growth rate may havedecreased to 2.7 per cent per year but has not, as yet,gone down to a level that would ensure minimum
growth, least of all attain a level of replacement. As
with other social problems, the solution to this runaway
population growth will not be difficult as long asPerezrecognition of the problem and the necessary action istaken right now.
table 1. Population Growth in the PhiUppines: 1591-1975
Year

Population

1591
1800
1877
1887
1896
1903
1918
1939
1948
1960
1970
1975

667,612
1,561,251
5,567,685
5,984,727
6,261,339
7,635,426
10,314,310
16,000,303
19,234,182
27,087,685
36,684,486
41,831,045'

Absolute
ChangePer cent
ChangeAverageAnnual Growth893,639
4,006,434
417,042276,612
1,374,087
2,678,884
5,685,993
3,233,879
7,853,503
9,596,801
5,146,559

133.86
256.62
7.49
4.62
21.95
35.08
55.13
20.21
40.83
35.43
14.03

4.073
1.667
0.725
0.503
2.875
1.897
2.219
1.906
3.057
3.012
2.660

SOURCE: Censo de las Islas Filipinas, 1903. Tomo 1; Bureau of Census andStatistics, "Census of the Philippines: 1960," Vol. II; Bureau of the
Census and Statistics, "Total Population of the Philippines and Each
Province, Municipality and Municipal District: 1970"; National
Census and Statistics Office, Preliminary Report of 1975 Census.
1Preliminary figures based on hand tallies.

Ulli

;
Yor

FIGURE I: POPULATION GROWTH IN THE PHILIPPINES: 1591-1973

8

THE GRO WTH OF POPULATIONREFERENCES"Population Trends Shift." Bulletin Today, February
16, 1976 issue.
Loarca, Miguel de (1909) "Relación de las Yslas
Filipinas, Arevalo, June 1582." In Blair, Emma Helenand Robertson, James Alexander. The Philippine
Islands, 1493-1898. The Arthur H. Clark Company,
Cleveland, Vol. 5, pp. 34-188.
National Census and Statistics Office 1975) Integrated
Census of the Philippine Population and Its Economic
Activities, 1975.
Plasencia, Juan de, O.S.F. (1909) "Customs of the
Tagalogs, Manila: October 1589." In Blair, Emma
Helen and Robertson, James Alexander, The Philippine Islands, 1493-1898. The Arthur H. Clark
Company, Cleveland. Vol. 7, pp. 173-198.
Worcester, Dean C. (1899) The Philippine Islands andTheir People. The Macmillan Company, New York.

COMPONENTS
OF GROWTHELÍSEO A. DE GUZMAN

in the Philippines stems mainly
from the interaction between the level of fertility andthe level of mortality. While data on internationalmigration are scarce, available information shows thatemigration and immigration are as yet inconsequential
elements in the nation's population growth rate.
The determination of fertility and mortality trends
and levels in the country is greatly hampered by theinadequacy of birth and death statistics. Despite efforts
to improve the present civil registration system, government agencies still report suspiciously low birth anddeath rates. Severe under-registration renders vitalstatistics of little value in the analyses of national orregional levels and trends of fertility and mortality.
In contrast to a decade ago, a large amount of rather
detailed fertility information has become available in the
country, brought about by a number of fertility surveys
conducted on the national as well as local level.
Unfortunately, this has not happened in the case of dataon mortality. Most of the plausible mortality estimatesthat exist are on the national level; there is very little
information on sub-national populations.
In the absence of accurate vital statistics, fertility andmortality parameters are estimated from census data by
applying indirect methods of estimation. Local andnational demographic surveys like the 1968 and 1973
POPULATION GROWTH10COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

National Demographic Surveys permit a more detailed
analysis of fertility, and sometimes of mortality, levels
and trends on the national and regional levels as well as
for other sub-groups of the population.

Fertility
Available estimates of the birth rate show that
Philippine fertility has been and still is characteristicallyhigh—well above the level of pre-industrial Europe andprobably above that of many Asian countries. The highlevel of fertility allowed population to grow at a
gradually rising pace during the 19th century, even withthe very slow progress achieved in the control of
diseases. It is possible that improvements in health careduring the last half-century brought a slight rise in thenumbers of children born alive per woman living
through the fecund years by lowering the proportion ofyoung widows and pre-natal losses.
Crude birth rate. As a measure of fertility, the crude
birth rate has certain limitations since it is affected by
the age composition of the population. For lack of data,
however, the fertility in the Philippines for early dates
can only be assessed by computing the crude birth rate.
The earliest period for which serious fertility estimatesat the national level are available covers the years
immediately preceding and just following the PhilippineAmerican military conflict (1899-1902). Crude birthrates as high as 53.7 per thousand were registered and"the rates are probably very nearly accurate for the
populations represented" (Smith, 1975).
Undoubtedly, the birth rate fluctuated under different
circumstances in the past. The birth rate was fairly
constant during the first five decades of the present

de Guzman

11

century as evidenced by the range of crude birth rates
between 1903 and 1948 (50 to 56 per 1000 population).
There may have been some reduction of fertility during
the second World War. The proportion of children
reported as under five years of age in 1948 (15.5 percent) was 1.2 points less than in 1960 (16.7 percent).
This apparent rise from 1948 to 1960 may have been due
in part to a reduction in the level of infant mortality.
Estimates of the crude birth rate for the early sixties
range from 42.0 per thousand to 45.6 per thousand
population. The birth rate .was estimated to lie between
40.0 and 42.7 per thousand in 1970.
Fertility ratios. The most important direct information
on fertility is provided by the number of children everborn to ever-married women of specified ages prior toTable 1. Estimâtes of the Crade Birth Rate, 1903-1970
Estimate

PeriodCrude Birth Rate
(Per Thousand)de Guzman
Adams, et. al.
de Guzman
Madigan-Avanceña
LorimerSmithde Guzman

1903-1948
1939-1948
1948-1960
1954-1960
1960
1960
1960
1960-1970
1970

50.0-55.8
45.6-52.7
46.8-51.9
44.2
45.6
42.0-43.4
42.7-44.0
40.8-45.2
40.0-42.7

SOURCES: Adams, Edith, "New Population Estimates for the Philippines,
1948-1962," The Philippine Statistician 7:134-166; de Guzman,
Elíseo A., "Estimates of the Philippine Birth Rate: A Census
Analysis," Research Note No. 58, University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975; Lorimer, Frank, "Analysis and Projections of the Population of the Philippines," First Conference
on Population, 1965, Quezon City, 1966; Smith, Peter, C ,"Philippine Regional and Population Differentials in Marriage
and Family Building: 1960," Philippine Sociological Review 19(3-4): 159-181.

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

12

the time of an inquiry. Data of this type are available
from censuses and national surveys. Table 2 shows theaverage number of children ever born per ever-married
woman for selected age groups for various years.
It is evident that the data for most years are subject
to error. With the exception of the 1956 and 1958
results, the numbers of children reported as ever born tothe older ever-married women at each successive age arelower than those reported by women in the ages 40-44.
If it is assumed that the cumulative fertility ratios forthe age group 40-44 are equal or nearly equal to thecompleted level, then there is no evidence of fertility
decline among married women in recent years. Decreasein fertility is reflected in the children ever born permarried woman only when a downward trend is wellestablished.
Table 2. Average Number of Children Ever Born Per Ever-Married Woman,
1939-1973
Age
Groups
15-19
20-24
25-29 130-34 J
35-39 ]
40-44 J
45-49 150-54 /
55-59 \
60-64 J
65 +Y
1939 | 1948
*
*

*
*

3.99 |

6.12 j 5.91

E1956 | 1958 | 1960
*
*
3.4
5.1

*
•

3.44
4.76
6.02
6.93

6.3

6.49J 6.38 | 7.30
6.23 ) 6.35]

7.22

5.84

6.87

6.15

A

•

7.3

R
1963

1968

1973

*
0.87
*
1.87
3.27
3.23
4.68
4.56
5.69 16.45 , 5.94
m
*
6.38
*
6.18
*
5.93
*
5.99
*
*

1.11
1.84
3.18
4.58
5.68
6.24
6.22
5.85
5.83
6.06
*

0.84
1.85
3.14
4.48
5.68
6.54
6.41
5.98
6.36
5.77
5.89

•>

*Not available
SOURCES : 1939: Bureau of the Census and Statistics, 1939 Census; 1948:
Bureau of the Census and Statistics, 1948 Census; 1956:
Lorimer, Frank, "Analysis and Projections of the Population of
the Philippines," First Conference on Population, 1965; 1958:
Bureau of the Census and Statistics, 1960 Census; 1963: BCS,
May, 1963, May 1963 PSSH; 1968: 1968 National Demographic Survey; 1973: 1973 National Demographic Survey.

de Guzman

13

Age-specific fertility rates. The overall age-specificfertility rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates
for the five-year periods 1958-62, 1963-67 and 1968-72
from the 1973 National Demographic Survey are shownin Table 3.
The age-specific fertility rates for all women (Cols.
2-4) show an indication of a declining fertility. Whenthe rates for 1958-62 are compared with thpse for
1968-72, all age groups exhibit declines in the number ofbirths per 1000 women with the first two and the lastgroups experiencing the greatest percentages of decline.
The total fertility rate or completed family size followed
a downward path, going down by nine per cent over the
15-yeaf period. Such a decline may have been
exaggerated due to errors in reporting dates of birth in
the five or more years previous to the time ofenumeration. This phenomenon, known as event disTable 3. Fertility Indices for Three Five-Year Periods, 1958-1972
Age-Specific Fertility
Rates(per thousand women)

Age ofWnmpn
TT UI11CH

Age-Specific Marital
Fertility Rates(per thousand women)(i)1958-62(2)

1963-67(3)

1967-72(4)

1958-62(5)

1963-67(6)

1968-72
(7)

15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49

84
260
313
290
211
107
27

74
254
313
281
216
101
20

56
227
302
272
199
100
22

396
428
384
325
233
117
29

430
434
388
314
237
110
21

449
443
378
307
217
108
24

Total Fertility
Rate
6.46

6.30

5.89

9.56

9.67

9.63

Total Marital
Fertility
Rate
SOURCE:

Concepción, M.B., "Changes in Period Fertility as Gleaned
from the 1973 NDS," Research Note No. 13, University of thePhilippines Population Institute, 1974.

14

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

placement, is frequently present in data peculiarly
subject to recall errors.
A different pattern is noted when the age-specificmarital fertility rates (births per 1000 ever-married
women) are examined (Cols. 5-7). Marital births among
the younger age groups have increased and the increases
were not sufficiently offset by decreases among the older
age groups to reduce the total fertility rate to the
1958-62 levels. The total fertility rate for married
women was still rising as late as 1963-67 when the total
fertility rate was 9.67. It fell slightly (0.41 per cent)during the next five-year period, 1968-72. Again, thesuggested decline may have been brought about by event
displacement.
Two observations can be made from Table 3. While
enough evidence points to an increasing age at marriage
among Filipino women, they start having their children
early in marriage. Secondly, they continued having
children up to the end of their childbearing period.
Cohort fertility rates. The fertility indices in Table 3
measure the partial fertility performance of womenbelonging to various age cohorts at different periods.
The data in this section refer to the fertility experienceof individual cohorts through time. The rates, called
cohort rates, have the advantage of separating shortterm fluctuations in established fertility patterns fromlong-range changes.
Table 4 gives the age-specific marital fertility rates forbirth cohorts of women aged 15-59 years of age at thetime of the survey. It also gives the total fertility rates
or completed family size for women who had reached
the end of their childberaing period by 1973. These
women were born in 1913-17, 1918-22 and 1923-27 .The
fertility rates demonstrate a declining trend whenproceeding from the oldest to the youngest birthcohorts.

de Guzman

15

Table 4. Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rates For All Women of Various
Birth Cohorts (Rates Per 1000 Married Women as of 1973)

Year of
Birth of
Woman

1953-57
1948-52
1943-47
1938-42
1933-37
1928-32
1923-27
1918-22
1913-17

Age ofMother at
Time ofSurvey
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59

Age of Mother at Birth-Event
15-19 20-24

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

45-49 TMFR

449
430
396
394
376
316
333
360
336

22S
388
384
369
332
315
324

24
21
29

443
434
428
403
381
322
344
365

302
314
325
309
307
258

217
237
233
243
254

ios

110
117
144

8.32
8.54
8.55

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey

For all women below age 45 at the time of the 1973
National Demographic Survey, no decline in fertility
performance is evident for the earliest reproductive ages
(15-24). Although insubstantial (1.8-3.4 per cent),
declines in the birth rates were displayed by the older
cohorts of women between the ages 25-44. It is very
apparent that such declines, if they be true, have juststarted to happen (see rates with underscoring). These
declines in the peak and later childbearing ages haveoccurred at the time when the country embarked on afamily planning program.
The marital fertility rates cumulated up to age 34 of
those women who have not completed their reproductive
period in 1973 are shown in Table 5. The average
numbers of children born after marriage to women
34-44 years old in 1973 were higher than the women 15
to 25 years their senior. Women in the older reproductive ages (35-49) manifested declining fertility during theperiod 1968-72.

16

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

Table 5. Average Number of Marital live Births Before and After Age 35
for Birth Cohorts of Ever-Married Women Aged 35-59:
Philippines, 1973

Age at Time of Survey

35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59

Age at Time of Childbirth
15-34

35-49

7.38
6.96
6.48
6.63
6.42

—
—
1.84
1.90
2.14

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey

It is evident from Tables 4 and 5 that throughout
their reproductive life time, the younger cohorts
reported higher birth rates than the older cohorts (aged
45 and over at the time of the survey). Two explanations
have been advanced by Flieger (1975) to explain thisphenomenon. The older birth cohorts started theirchildbearing during the Second World War, which
undoubtedly had a depressing effect on overall fertility
performance. The younger birth cohorts (aged 15-44)
became the beneficiaries of improved health and living
conditions brought about by the national development
process. Such conditions led to a decrease in mortality
in general, and maternal and infant deaths in particular.
Marriage patterns. Shifts in the proportions single anda rise in the age at marriage among women havemeasurable impact on the overall level of fertility,
unless counterbalanced by changes in fertility behavior
within marriage.
The per cents single among females by age groups andthe singulate mean ages at marriage (SMAM) from thenational censuses and the 1973 National Demographic
Survey are provided in Table 10 of Chapter 3. Per cents
single have increased steadily for all, except the oldest

de Guzman17

age groups from 1903-73. The per cent single at age
group 15-19 increased from 73.6 per cent to 91.5 per
cent, a gain of 17.9 points over the period, while the percent single at ages 20-24 rose by 22.6 points. In 1903,
about one in four women aged 15-19 was married while
in 1973 only one in twelve women in the same age group
was married. Among women aged 20-24, two in threewere married in 1903, in contrast to just over four in ten
in 1973.
Significant,delays in female age at marriage is evident
over the 1903-60 period. An acceleration of the trend
during the 1960s is revealed by the 1970 census.
Moreover, data from the 1973 National Demographic
Survey indicate a further acceleration of the trend
during the 1960s shown by the 1970 census. Furthermore, data from the 1973 National Demographic Survey
indicate a further acceleration over 1970-73. The mean
age at marriage for females in 1973 was 23.7, anincrease of 2.8 years between 1903 and 1973. The
comparative figure for males for the same year was 25.7
years. For both males and females, higher mean ages atmarriage have been observed in the urban sector than in
the rural areas. Residential differences were a little overnine per cent for males and about 12 per cent for
females.
Smith (1975) analyzed provincial, urban-rural, andregional differences utilizing a special index of marriage
pattern (1^) calculated from census data. Over the
1903-39 period the female ages at marriage declined in
20 out of 45 provinces (see Table 6). In postwar years to
1960, all provinces except three experienced delayed
marriage. During the 1960s, all provinces underwent
substantial delay, especially those which had lagged
behind before 1960.
In 1903, Isabela had the highest I m (.893), while
Bohol had the lowest (.625). In 18 provinces, Im,
exceeded .800 while only three had indices below 0.700.

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

18
Table 6. Indica of Maniate Patten
1970: 45 Province«

for Fenulei, 1903,1939,19« andProvince

1. Abra2. Albay
3. Antique
4. Bataan
5. Batangas
6. Bohol
7. Bulacan
8. Cagayan
9. Capiz10. Camarines
11. Cavité
12. Cebú
13. Cotabato
14. Davao
15. Hocos Norte
16. Hocos Sur
17. Iloilo
18. Isabela
19. Laguna
20. La Union
21. Leyte
22. Manila
23. Marínduque
24. Masbate
25. Mindoro
26. Misamis Occ.
27. Misamis Or.
28. Mt. Province
29. Negros Occ.
30. Negros Or.
31. Nueva Ecija
32. Nueva Vizcaya
33. Palawan
34. Pampanga
35. Pangasinan
36. Quezon
37. Rizal
38. Romblon
39. Samar
40. Sorsogon
41. Sulu
42. Surigao
43. Tarlac
44. Zambales
45. Zamboanga
PHILIPPINES

1970
1903

1939

19*0

.755
.735
.745
.809
.760
.625
.755
.868
.721
.788
.809
.670
.847
.832
.773
.726
.776
.893
.811
.755
.713
.797
.688
.782
.845
.743
.792
.813
.860
.699
.840
.907
.758
.761
.873
.815
.812
.804
.796
.783
.827
.765
.873
.844
.768
.770

.731
.751
.713
.765
.697
.678
.675
.756
.724
.791
.758
.683
.867
.869
.603
.593
.691
.801
.773
.609 .
.768
.670
.766
.862
.834
.790
.785
.858
.798
.753
.761
.820
.837
.704
.722
.827
.727
.772
.806
;807
.853
.805
.748
.785
.830
.705

.719
.683
.635
.760
.669
.651
.614
.750
.698
.717
.651
.632
.758
.771
.633
.629
.606
.802
.702
.667
.737
.492
.747
.787
.800
.669
.705
.763
.683
.694
.695
.782
.817
.659
.676
.772
.574
.728
.772
.734
.746
.724
.700
.688
.761
.647

Total

Urban

Rnral

.599
.621
.574
.616
.575
.572
.576
.665
.608
.634
.575
.572
.680
.662
.581
.587
.538
.728
.599
.572
.661
.470
.663
.716
.6%
.578
.606
.662
.599
.625
.631
.678
.724
.595
.592
.681
.533
.660
.712
.649
.648
.669
.616
.603
.681
.614

.497
.490
.465
.540
.487
.466
.562
.544
.473
.518
.539
.516
.553
.555
.489
.498
.451
.648
.567
.475
.538
.470
.499
.559
.591
.444
.507
.517
.510
.486
.556
.569
.622
.572
.509
.573
.528
.525
.585
.525
.603
.580
.525
.570
.555
.528

.623
.656
.594
.639
.591
.590
.589
.687
.631
.688
.615
.615
.704
.706
.614
.607
.578
.741
.633
.587
.696
—
.690
.749
.724
.607
.637
.700
.649
.650
.654
.714
.750
.606
.614
.730
.635
.682
.711
.693
.658
.707
.636
.641
.707
.662

SOURCE: Peter C. Smith, "Provincial and Urban-Rural Differences . . .'Research Note No. 49, UPPI, 1975.

de Guzman

19

During the years prior to 1939, the I m values plunged
downward in 20 provinces, the rates of decline ranging
from 22 per cent (llocos Norte) to 11 per cent(Marinduque). By 1939, provincial I m s ranged from
0.869 in Davao to 0.603 in llocos Norte. Between 1939
and 1970, only four provinces had I m values above
0.700; and seventeen below 0.600.
Over a period of seventy years, the national I m had
fallen by 20 per cent. Downward shifts of 30 per cent ormore were noted for five provinces.
The urban areas everywhere took the lead in all thesechanges. The overall urban I m in 1970 was 31 per centbelow the 1903 national level. Manila which demonstrated early marriage in 1903 had by 1970 the lowest
index, 29 per cent below the 1970 rural value and 39 percent below the national value in 1903.
Smith (1975) summarized the regional nuptiality
patterns and differences as follows: 1) internal migration
has a complex impact upon marriage patterns in areasof destination and origin, depending upon the marital
status of migrants at the time of migration and thetiming of marriage after migration, the sex selectivity of
migration, and age, sex and marital differentials
between early and late-migration streams; 2) areas ofheavy in-migration showed increases in I m (shifts toearlier marriage) before 1939 and delayed marriage
thereafter; and 3) the Philippines' core region (Manila
Region consisting of five provinces and the remainder ofCentral Luzon) has exhibited a major shift toward later
marriage.
Differentials in fertility. The study of differentials in
fertility has become increasingly important in recent
years. This is because differentials provide valuable
information on the relative contribution of different
groups in any given population to the overall level offertility, and hence, indicate probable changes.

20

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTH

Fertility is determined by an elaborate set of diverse
factors. In general, important biological, geographic,socio-economic, and psycho-religious elements contribute to the determination of fertility. However, these
fertility determinants do not act in isolation. Each of thefactors is connected with a whole spectrum of various
other factors.
Table 7. Fertility Ratios of Women 45-54 by Selected Characteristics,
1968 and 1973
Characteristics

1968

1973

A. Education
College 1-4 and overHigh School 1-4
Grades 5-7
Grades 1-4
No Schooling

4.78
5.76
6.40
6.46
5.59

4.65
6.22
6.27
6.69
5.75

B. Occupation
White Collar
Proprietors and SaleswomenBlue Collar
Farmers

5.29
6.32
6.64
6.69

4.44
6.44
6.00
6.34

C. Labor Force Participation
In the Labor Force
Not in the Labor Force

6.10
6.08

5.88
6.14

D. Family Income
P1000 and over
Under PI 000

6.08
6.60

5.30
6.79

E. Age at Marriage
Under 15 years old
15-19
20-24
25-29

7.90
7.09
6,05
4.68

7.84
7.25
6.24
4.60

SOURCE: Elíseo A. de Guzman. Trends in Differential Fertility . . .," 1975

Education and fertility. In general, available data
point to an inverse relationship between fertility andeducation. The higher the educational attainment, thesmaller is the mean number of children per woman. For
example, in 1958, women who reported having received
some college education had about a third less the

de Guzman

21

number of children (4.30), on the average, than persons
with no schooling (7.15), or those with primary school
education alone (7.56). The same observation of
decreasing fertility with increasing education holds true
for women of childbearing ages and of completed
fertility in 1968 and in 1973.
Wife's occupation. Occupation is one of the mostfrequently used indices of socio-economic status in theanalysis of fertility differentials. Relatively high fertility
has been associated with farming and other low ranking
occupations while lower fertility has been associatedwith the professional and white collar occupations.
Data from the Philippine Statistical Survey ofHouseholds (PSSH) of 1958 and the National Demographic Surveys of 1968 and 1973 clearly show the
inverse relationship between fertility and occupational
categories; however, there is an important exception to
the pattern in the 1973 data. Fertility ratios calculated
from the 1958 and 1968 data monotonically decreased
from one occupational level to the next higher level
when ranked in terms of status. In the case of the 1973
data, proprietors and sales women in the post-childbearing ages had a higher average number of children
ever born than blue-collar workers and farmers, except
among other urban women aged 55-64.
Work status. Research undertaken in various settingsseem to point to the dependence of the female labor
force participation/female reproductive behavior relationship on the nature of the economic activity and thesetting in which this activity takes place. In addition, thepresence or absence of conflict between mother andworker roles seems to influence the emergence of a
fertility-employment relationship.
Available data show that the cumulative fertility ratios
of women who constitute part of the working population

22

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTH

were, in all cases, lower than the ratios for women noteconomically active. In 1958, working women living in
Manila in the post-childbearing ages tended to haveabout one child less, on the average, than those notworking. In other urban areas, the difference was 0.51",
whereas in the rural areas, the difference was only 0.08
in favor of those in the labor force. This signifies that
economic activity only assumes importance as a contributing factor to fertility differences in the truly urban
places.
Among women aged 35-44 at the time of the 1968
National Demographic Survey, there was a gradient of
low to high fertility proceeding along the following
lines: urban-working, urban-nonworking, rural-working,rural-nonworking. Consistent with the 1958 results, thispattern seems to suggest that it is only labor force
participation in urban-industrial pursuits which results inlow fertility levels. Work-related activities in the rural
areas, on the other hand, are such as to promote very
little, if any, conflict between the work role and themother role. Consequently, working women in the rural
areas exhibit fertility levels higher than those of
nonworking women in the urban areas.
Income status. In general, fertility is negatively
associated with income level. Existing data show th^tthis inverse association between the two variables ismore marked among women in the childbearing ages
than those in the post-childbearing period.
In 1956, women in households reporting annual
income of less than 2,000 pesos had higher fertility than
women living in households with annual incomes of
2,000 pesos or more. In Metropolitan Manila, the higher
income group consistently demonstrated lower fertility
with the exception of women aged 35-39.
The negative relationship between family size andincome, however, is found only to a certain point.

de Guzman

11

There are instances within the higher income groups inwhich family size is positively associated with income.
Women in families having annual incomes of 3,000
pesos or more reported higher average numbers ofchildren than women in families receiving incomes ofless than 500 pesos yearly. The lowest income groups
were also observed to exhibit very low levels of family
size. It can be argued that very low economic statusadversely affects the physiological capacity of women inthese groups to bear children.
Age at marriage. The effect of the woman's age atmarriage on her marital fertility is well-established. By
marrying early in the reproductive period, all otherthings being equal, a woman will produce more children
than one who marries later and who spends only aportion of that period in marriage.
Philippine data point to a systematic decrease in themean number of children per woman with increasing age
at marriage. In all cases, women who married below theage of 15 produced the greatest number of children. For
example, the data for 1956 revealed that women aged
45-49 and who married at age 30-34, had 71 per centless children than those who married before reaching
their 15th birthday. In 1968 and 1973, the differenceswere 51 per cent and 58 per cent, respectively.
Concepción, Flieger, Pascual, and Stinner (1975)
observed that among women married less than five
years, postponement of marriage to over 20 years of age
reduced fertility by at least one child. Among thosemarried for 5-9 years, postponement of marriage beyond
the middle twenties resulted in a reduction of just about
half a child. Postponement of marriage to the earlytwenties resulted in a similar fertility reduction among
those married for 10-19 years.

24

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTH

Urban-rural differentials. One of the more widespread
contentions in differential fertility studies has been thaturban populations show lower fertility than rural
populations. Various reasons advanced include thedeclining utility of children as productive assets, andtheir increasing financial liability; the increased levels of
educational attainment among the urban female population and the variegated opportunity structure in theurban area, which provides alternative roles other thanthat of mother and childbearer; increased opportunity
for social mobility as well as increased aspirations forsuch mobility.
The difference in fertility between city and non-citydwellers in the Philippines is substantial and in favor of
the latter. In 1956, for women between the ages of 25
and 30, the city versus village difference was 0.70
children; for the next older group of women, it was 1.03
children. Corresponding differences in cumulative fertility
ratios for 1973 were 1.15 and 1.09, respectively.
Rural-urban differences in mean number of children
born to women persisted even when the effects ofeducation, income, work status, age at marriage,
occupation and current age were held constant.

Mortality
Increased food production, higher educational level
reached by members of the population, better medical
and health facilities, widespread hygiene and sanitation
practices and other improvements in socio-economic
conditions have contributed largely to the decline of thePhilippine death rate. With a high level of births, thesedramatic reductions in mortality have boosted thegrowth of the Philippine population.

de Guzman

25

Mortality trends and levels. The crude death rate for
the Philippines declined by about 85 per cent between
1903 and 1960 as presented in Table 8. Aromin's (1961)
estimates show that the death rate dropped from a highlevel of 58 per 1000 population in 1903 to 14.5 during
the five-year period, 1956-60. The 1971 crude death
rate for the Philippines, based on data from the
National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO) sample
registration areas, was 11.6 for both sexes combined(Flieger, 1975). Lorimer (1966) assumed that the death
rate would be in the neighborhood of 11.8 for theperiod 1965-70. A life table for the Philippines for
1970, prepared by Engracia (1974), implies a death rateof 11.73 for both sexes combined.
Analyses have demonstrated that death registration on
the sectoral level is a function of development. A higher
degree of under-registration has been displayed by themore rural and less affluent provinces. To illustrate,
registered data for the City of Manila, which enjoys arelatively high level of living, pointed to the highest
mortality level (15.5 deaths per 1000 population). In
comparison, a crude death rate of 0.53 deaths per 1000
was recorded for the province of Lanao de Sur, which isone of the most underdeveloped areas.
The crude death rates for the major geographic
regions in 1973 estimated by Zablan (1975) are listed inTable 9. Five out of 12 regions were estimated to have
crude death rates lower than the Philippine figure of 9.2
deaths per 1000 population. These are Southern Mindanao (8.0), Southern Luzon (8.1), Central Luzon (7.6),
Metropolitan Manila (7.2), and Bicol (6.8). Four regions
appear to be disadvantaged in that their crude death
rates were higher than the national average. They are
Western Visayas (9.9), Cagayan Valley-Batanes (10.2),
Northern Mindanao (10.8), and Eastern Visayas (11.2).
Despite the decline of the crude death rate, infantmortality remains high. In 1971, infant mortality for the

COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

26

Philippines as a whole was estimated at 80 deaths per
1,000 live births. By 1973, the level of infant deaths was
about 68 per 1,000 live births, a decline of 15 per centfrom the previous level. It must be noted that thesefigures represent the averages which mask the actual
situation existing in the different regions. Infantmortality in some of the regions was very high in 1971,
ranging from 116 in Southern Luzon to 182 in the Cagayan
Valley (Flieger, 1975). The opposite is gradually
becoming true; infant mortality rates in 1973 were
between 50.3 in Central Luzon to 90.3 in Northern
Mindanao (Zablan, 1975). Substantial declines in infantmortality have been observed in the llocos and Mt.
Province, Cagayan Valley-Batanes, Eastern Visayas, andWestern Visayas.
Table 8. Estimated Crude Death Rates for the Philippines, 1903-1971

Estimate

PeriodAromin '1903
1904-1905
1911-19151931-1935
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1965-1970
1971

Lorimer 2
Flieger 3

Crude Death Rate(per thousand)

58.0
26.8
25.3
23.5
21.8
17.9
14.5
12.0
11.6

SOURCES:1

Basilio B. Aromin, "The Trend of Mortality in the Philippines: 1903 to
1960," The Statistical Reporter (Manila), Vol. V, No. 3, July 1961, p. 5.
Estimates are by "Method I I " which assumes a constant birth rate and aconstant degree of completeness of the registration of deaths. Annual
rates were estimated by this method for 1903-35 and 1946-60.
Lorimer, "Analysis and Projections of the Philippine Population,"in First Conference on Population, 1965, Quezon City: U.P. Press^Wilhelm Flieger, "Some Comments on Current Mortality. Information in
the Philippines," Philippine Population Research, Rodolfo A. Bulatao, ed.,Makati, Rizal, Population Center Foundation.

de Guzman

27

Together with decreases in the number of deaths is theincrease in years of life expectancy at birth. A set of life
tables constructed by Hizon and de Castro in 1965
showed a life expectancy at birth of 53.3 years for 1960
for Filipinos. The corresponding rate estimated by the
Bureau of Census and Statistics was 56.3 years. The life
expectancy at birth rose steadily from a low 37.5 years
in 1918 to 40 years in 1938; by 1948, life expectancy
hovered between 42.5 and 53.3 years (Aromin, 1961;
Madigan-Avanceña, 1965; Hizon-de Castro, 1965).
The expectation of life at birth for males in 1970 was
55 years; that for females was 61 years (Engracia, 1974).
The life expectancy is expected to lengthen further
although it is unlikely to exceed 70 years by the year
2000.
Zablan (1976) observed that, in general, the decline inmortality as demonstrated by increasing life expectancy
at birth was characterized by three phases: 1) a periodof moderate increases (1918-39), during which theTable 9. Crude Death Rates by Major Regions: 1973

RegionCrude death rate
(per 1000)

PHILIPPINES
I. llocos and Mt. Province
II. Cagayan Valley-Batanes
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Luzon
V. BicolVI. Western VisayasVII. Central Visayas
VIII. Eastern Visayas
IX. Western Mindanao
X. Northern Mindanao
XI. Southern Mindanao
XII.. Metropolitan Manila

9.17
9.39
10.24
7.64
8.07
6.76
9.94
9.27
11.19
9.36
10.81
8.01
7.22

SOURCE:
1

Zelda C. Zablan, "Regional Differentials in Mortality: Philippines, 1973,"
Research Note No. 64, UPPI, 1975.

28

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTH

yearly increment averaged 0.42 years; 2) a period of
rapid increase (1948-68), when the annual increases
averaged 0.76 years; and, finally, 3) a period of slow
growth (1968-73), with increases of 0.36 per year.
Reduction in the death rate—particularly in theyounger age groups—tend to augment population
growth in two ways: 1) by slowing the attrition of theexisting population; and 2) by increasing the number ofwomen who survive through their childbearing years.
For instance, in 1903, only about 19,000 females out of
100,000 could be expected to survive to the age of 45.
However, in 1960, about 69,000 females could be
expected to reach the same age. Coupled with high birthrates, this new pattern of survival offers a powerfulimpetus to continued rapid population growth.
Causes of deaths. A review of mortality trends bycauses of death is essential in order to find out if theobserved improvements in general mortality have beenaccompanied by a shift in the relative importance ofsome causes of death. The trend in leading causes ofdeath is revealed in Table 10. When all causes weregrouped into three broad categories,,deaths attributed tocommunicable diseases declined; those from malignant
neoplasms and diseases of the heart and the vascularsystem increased. While there was a noticeable shift
from communicable to degenerative diseases, deaths due
to communicable diseases continued to dominate, andconstituted about 40 per cent of total deaths in 1972.
Pneumonia and tuberculosis, the two major killers,
accounted for 27.1 per cent of total deaths in the same
year. The declines in deaths from communicable diseases
were greatest in the latter half of the 1950s until the late1960s and coincided with the peak increases in the life
expectation at birth. The early 1970s showed moremodest declines in deaths by these causes. Deaths due todegenerative disorders had been observed to increasede Guzman

29

steadily, but the levels were considerably lower thanthose of the communicable diseases.
The problem diseases are of the kind not easily
controlled by direct spraying and inoculation. Theirroots lie deep in poverty, abetted by inadequate
knowledge of preventive medicine and environmental
hygiene. Not only is the present health care system
inadequate to meet these problems, but there has also
been maldistribution in health facilities; Department of
Health statistics point to a declining rather than to anincreasing doctor-population ratio. Hospitals are heavily
concentrated in the Metropolitan Manila area. Official
expenditure on health is decreasing, shown by its
proportionate share of the total government budget.
Table 10. Death Rates by Leading Causes: 1946-1972

Cause of Death

Death Rate per 100,000 Population
1946 1950 1955 1960 I 1965 1970 1972

Pneumonia
Respiratory Tuberculosis

197.4 136.7 106.6 100.4 121.2 118.2 125.1
167.2 135.5 97.6 92.1 83.4 77.0 73.3

Gastroenteritis

58.7
—

57.7

56.7

60.5

46.0

35.0

44.0

18.7

34.7

27.6

33.6

34.0

43.5

Ill-defined diseaseof early infancy

—

—

—

32.5

—

19.1

39.9

Accidents

—

—

17.4

14.6

23.2

24.8

37.0

Disease of Vascular System

—

—

—

20.6

27.9

35.8

32.9

Nutritional Deficiency

145.7* 113.6» 92.8* 54.4* 49.9

25.5

31.4

Malignant Neoplasms

—

8.6

11.7

18.2

22.2

25.6

26.3

Bronchitis

129.7 100.6

73.9

57.2

43.1

27.9

23.7

10.4

Heart Disease

Tetanus

6.6

5.9

7.4

9.4

Influenza

51:3

26.1

14.1

7.1

7.3

10.1
7.2

9.3
8.4

Measles

91.0

38.3

15.6

3.7

8.7

4.5

5.3

Dysentery

34.7

7.0

3.9

1.4

3.7

2.4

2.2

Malaria

11.8

4.1

2.8

5.0

5.0

1.8

1.7

* from Beri-beri only.
SOURCE:

Disease Intelligence Center, Philippine Health Statistics Reports, 1960-72, Department of Health, Manila.

30

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTH

A related problem to health concerns the high rate ofmalnutrition. Department of Health estimates showedthat 80 per cent of children under six were malnourished.
The incidence of such cases will probably rise in thenear future unless drastic steps are taken to improve
nutrient intake at all ages.
Mortality differentials. As in the case of fertility,
analysis of mortality by subgroups of the population
permits the identification of mechanisms which underlie
differential mortality. Isolation of high and low mortality
subgroups can be useful in ascertaining specific target
populations for mortality improvement endeavors.
Furthermore, knowledge of the mechanisms in operation
can provide a framework and a rationale in which tobase policies directed at the disadvantaged sub-populations.
Urban-rural differentials. Higher mortality rates havebeen noted for the rural than the urban sector. In 1968,
the average crude death rate for the rural areas wasestimated at 9.3 deaths per thousand as against 8.4
deaths among urbanités, a difference of 11 per cent.
Recent mortality estimates show that in 1968 the levelof deaths among rural infants was approximately 30 per
cent higher than among their urban counterparts. A
slight narrowing of the differential (24 per cent) was
observed in 1973. In terms of life expectancy at birth,the urbanité was expected to live longer than his
counterpart from the rural area by about an average 2.5
years in 1968 and 2.4 years in 1973.
Occupation. Various studies (Lotka and Spiegelman,
1949; Moriyama and Guralnick, 1955; Häuser andKitagawa, 1973) indicate an inverse relationship between
occupational level and mortality. Lower mortality has
been associated with higher-ranking occupational classes.
In 1973, those who held professional, administrativeand managerial posts had the highest life expectancy at

de Guzman

31birth (67.3 years). This was 15 per cent higher than thatfor the white collar workers (58.4 years) and 20 per centhigher than farm workers (55.0). The disparity inmortality experience is more marked when infantmortality rates are compared by occupation of mother.
The level of infant mortality among farm workers was
195 per cent higher than that of professionals and about
twice as high as those who have no occupation at all.
Marital status differences. Mortality differences by
marital status in the Philippines are consistent withinternational findings. Married persons have lower death
rates than those who are single. Data for 1960 revealed
that married females aged 15-19 expected to live about
eight years longer than single females and about a year
longer than divorced ones. In 1970, a slight decrease in
the mortality differential between married and single
women was noted. Married males in the same age group
had an average life expectation at birth 14 years greaterthan that for single males. These differences, however,continued till the older ages with a slight contraction.
Education. Life expectancy increases linearly witheducational attainment. College education means anincrease in life expectancy by about 13 years, from a life
expectancy of approximately 57 years with no schoolingto about 70 years with at least a year in college. One
year of schooling increases life expectation by about two
years (59.3 years for grades 1-4 vs. 57.3 years for noschooling). Also, those who spent more years in school
had relatively lower crude death rates and infantmortality rates. This situation is expected since increasing education is associated with increased awareness ofbetter health and sanitation, nutrition, preventive care,and the recognition of important morbidity symptoms.
In addition, higher educational attainment usually
implies higher income and occupational status, which
are both conducive to low mortality.

32

COMPONENTS OF GRO WTHREFERENCES
Alcantara, Adelamar. "Differential Mortality Among
Population Subgroups." Research Note No. 63, U.P.
Population Institute, 1975.
Aromin, Basilio. "The Trend of Mortality in the Philippines, 1903. tö 1960," The Statistical Reporter. Vol.
5, No. 3, pp. 1-7.
Concepción, Mercedes B., Wilhelm Flieger, Elvira M.
Pascual, and William F. Stinner. "The Childbearing
Patterns of Young Filipino Women." In A Demographic Path to Modernity,Wilhelm Flieger and Peter
C. Smith (eds.). Quezon City: U.P. Press, 1975, pp.
27-152.
Engracia, Luisa T. "Estimates of the Life Table Functions of the Philippines." Paper delivered at theAnnual Conference of the Philippine Statistical
Association. Manila, 1974.
Flieger, Wilhelm. "Some Comments on Current Mortality Information in the Philippines." In Philippine
Population Research, Rodolfo A. Bulatao, ed. Makati,
Rizal, Population Center Foundation.
Häuser, Philip M. and Evelyn M. Kitagawa Differential
Mortality in the United States: A Study in Socioeconomic Epidemiology. Cambridge: Harvard University, 1973.
Hizon, Manuel O. and de Castro, I. "Revised Study on
Population Mortality from Philippine Census of
1960," The Philippine Statistician, Vol. 15, Nos. 3-4,
pp. 16-30.
Lorimer, Frank W. "Analysis and Projections of the
Population of the Philippines." In First Conference
on Population 1965. Quezon City: U.P. Press, 1966,
pp. 200-314.

de Guzman

33

Madigan, Frank C. "Some Recent Vital Rates andTrends in the Philippines: Estimates and Evaluation."
Demography. Vol. 2, pp. 309-316.
Moriyama and Guralnick. "Occupational and Class
Differential in Mortality." Trends and Differentials in
Mortality. New York, Milbank Memorial Fund, 1956.
Smith, Peter C. "Provincial and Urban-Rural Differences in Marriage Pattern: The Evidence for the 1960s,"
Research Note No. 49, U.P. Population Institute,
1975.
"The Turn-of-the-Century BirthRate: Estimates from Birth Registration and Age
Structure." In A Demographic Path to Modernity,
Wilhelm Flieger and Peter C. Smith (eds.). Quezon
City: U.P. Press, 1975. pp. 82-90.
Zablan, Zelda C. "Regional Differentials in Mortality:
Philippines, 1973," Research Note No. 64, U.P.
Population Institute, 1975.
"The Evaluation of Existing Mortality Estimates: Philippines, 1902-1973," Research
Note No. 82, U.P. Population Institute, 1976.

POPULATIONCOMPOSITION
ELÍSEO A. DE GUZMAN

of all demographic attributes is the sex
composition of a population, with its direct influence
on fertility, mortality and nuptiality. The ratio
between the sexes affects rates of migration, labor force
and occupational structure, and almost all otherpopulation characteristics. The sex structure is conveniently described by the sex ratio defined as thenumber of males per 1000 females.
Sex Structure.
The male and female populations of the Philippines
for various censuses, as well as the corresponding sex
ratios, are shown in Table 1. Both the male and female
populations have been steadily increasing and sinceÍ903, the greatest gains were recorded between 1918
and 1939, the male population gaining by 36 per centand the female population by 35 per cent. A deceleration in intercensal gains, percentage-wise, seems apparent starting with the 1960s. Except for 1903 and1970, the males have always outnumbered the females.
In 1903, the females were 582 more than the males; thedifference in 1970 was 183,784. Changes in the sex ratio
were greatest by 1970. In 1960 the sex ratio was 1018,
this went down to 990 in 1970. A general trend of thesex ratio above 1000 makes the 1970 figure suspect.
Analysis of the 1970 results is being made to determine
the cause of such sex imbalance.
MOST BASIC

35

POPULA TION COMPOSITION

36

Table 1. Enumerated Male and Female Populations of the Philippines and Sex
Ratios for Census Years

Census

Male

1903
1918
1939
1948
1960
1970

3,817,422
5,177,567
8,065,281
9,651,195
13,662,869
18,250,351

Cent
Change

26.3
35.8'
16.4
29.4
25.1

Female3,818,004
5,163,743
7,935,022
9,582,987
13,424,816
18,434,135

Per Cent Sex
Change Ratio

26.1
34.9
17.2
28.6
27.2

1000
1003
1016
1007
1018
990

Per Cent
Changein theSex Ratio
0.30
1.30
-.89
1.10
-2.83

SOURCES: Bureau of the Census and Statistics Office, Census Report of1960; National Census and Statistics, Census Report for 1970.

Differences in the sex ratio by age group can be seenfrom Table 2. In all census years, the sex ratios at theearly ages exceed 1000, indicating a preponderance ofmales over females in these ages. This is primarily due
to a sex ratio at birth that is biased in favor of males.
This advantage, however, is diminished gradually withadvancing age, so that in the intermediate ages, thefemales are greater in number than the males. It can benoted from the table that there was generally an excess
of males at ages 40 and over.
Table 2. Sex Ratio of the Population by Age Group, 1903-1970
Age Groups

1903

1918

1939

1948

1960

1970

0-4
5-14
15-29
30-39
40-59
60 +

1018
1054
874.
1101
1053
1007

1011
1015
950
990
1067
1080

1044
1052
964
1968
1026
1023

1060
1057
934
980
1018
1025

1061
1062
1382
967
1029
908

1028
1035
941
963
972
985

SOURCES: Bureau of the Census and Statistics Office, Census Reports
Reports for 1903, 1918, 1939, 1948, 1960; National Census andStatistics Office, 1970, 1975.

37

de Guzman

Regional variations in the sex ratio by age group aredisplayed in Table 3. The variations may be attributed
to various factors such as the sex ratio at birth,mortality differentials, and sex-selectivity in migration.
For example, the preponderance of males in in-migration
streams to Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, and the two
Mindanao regions have resulted in sex ratios well above
1000. It is believed that the disappearance of frontierareas and the easing up of migratory movements havecaused a gradual decline in the sex ratios. The slight
excess of males in the Eastern Visayas region may bepartly due to the larger number of females out-migratingfrom the area.
Table 3. Sex Ratio by Regions and by Broad Age Groups, 1970
Regions

0-4

5-14 15-29 30-39 40-49 50-69 70 +llocos Region
Cagayan Valley
Central Luzon
Southern Luzon
Bicol Region
Western Visayas
Central Visayas
Eastern Visayas
Western Mindanao
Northern Mindanao
Southern Mindanao
Metropolitan Manila

1033
1086
1032
1061
1037
1014
1034
1034
1006
1020
1029
1054

1087
1066
1059
1054
1060
1023
1055
1055
1045
1051
1066
1013

940
994
922
876
955
910
905
985
889
928
945
825

963 861 774 790
1067 935 956 982
1007 880 838 935
1058 956 876 946
1017 948 978 1124
1002 848 875 963
976 887 848 938
1019 930 971 1044
1052 1010 1083 1192
1109 1053 1066 1150
1177 1102 1170 1126
979 947 903 865

TOTAL
959
1029
980
994
1016
967
961
1014
996
1020
1049
933

SOURCE: NCSO, Census Report for 1970.

On the other hand, the low sex ratios in the otherregions have been due to predominantly male outmigration, except Metropolitan Manila and Southern
Luzon, where an increasing number of young female
in-migrants have been recorded (note the very low sex
ratios in the age group 15-29).
That the urban areas are predominantly female isdepicted in Table 4. In 11 out of 12 regions, the females

38

POPULATION COMPOSITION

exceeded the males by as much as 11 per cent. Again
migration provides the most important reason for the
femininity of the urban areas where the growth of service
industries and the proliferation of jobs for women haveincreasingly attracted rural females. In general, the rural
areas are male-dominated.
Table 4. Sex Ratios by Regional Divisions and by Residence, 1970
Residence
Regions
I. llocos Region
II. Cagayan Valley-Batanes
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Luzon
V. Bicol Region
VI. Western VisayasVII. Central Visayas
VIII. Eastern Visayas
IX. Western Mindanao
X. Northern Mindanao
XI. Southern Mindanao
XII. Metropolitan Manila

Urban

Rural

Total

892
989
941
956
960
912
931
955
933
976
1002
932

975
1036
996
1025
1030
988
973
1029
1008
1032
1063
—

959
1029
980
994
1016
967
961
1014
996
1020
1049
932

SOURCE: NCSO, Census Report for 1970.

Age Structure

The age composition of the Philippine populationreflects the effects of past levels and trends of births anddeaths. Though there is paucity of data on internationalmigration, reliable sources have shown that immigrationor emigration has not reached a magnitude large enoughto alter the age structure of the population.
The distribution of the population by broad age
groups is shown in Table 5. A high level of fertility anda declining mortality level resulted in an increasing
proportion of 0-14 year-olds, reported to be a little over
39 per cent in 1903. By 1970, the proportion rose toabout 46 per cent. The reverse is true in the broad age
groups, 15-64 and 65 years and over. The proportion of39

de Guzman

the population in the economically productive ages,
15-64 years, which was 57.2 per cent at the beginning of
the century declined to about 52 per cent by 1970.
Likewise, the relative share of the population in theoldest age group, 65 and over, decreased from 3.3 percent to 2.9 per cent over the same period. All of thesepoint to the fact that the Philippine population is not
only young, but also getting younger. In 1903, themedian age of the population was 20.2 years. By 1970,
the median age had dropped to 17.9.
Table 5. Percentage Distribution by Age Group, Philippines 1903-1970
Census Years

ABe
Groups

1903

1918

1939

1948

1960

1970

All
0-4
5-14
15-24
25-49
50-64
65 +

100.0
15.1
24.4
18.0
30.9
8.3
3.3

100.0
16.9
27.3
19.2
27.1
7.1
2.4

100.0
16.3
26.8
19.8
26.9
6.8
3.4

100.0
15.6
28.6
19.9
27.0
5.8
3.1

100.0
16.9
28.8
19.5
26.1
6.0
2.7

100.0
16.9
28.8
19.7
25.1
6.7
2.8

0-14
15-64
65 +
Median Age

39.5
57.2
3.3
20.2

44.2
53.4
2.4
18.5

43.1
53.5
3.4
18.3

44.2
52.7
3.1
17.7

45.7
51.6
2.7
17.1

45.5
51.7
2.8
17.9

SOURCE: Bureau of the Census and Statistics, Census Reports for 19031970.

The 1970 distribution of the population by sex andurban-rural residence is presented in Table 6. When themale and female distributions are compared, three maindifferences emerge:• a relatively greater share of the male population in
the younger ages 0-14;• a greater proportion of the female population in theworking ages 15-64; and• a slightly higher share of the female population inadvanced age group 65 and over.

POPULATION COMPOSITION

40

Regardless of sex, the rural population has a higher
percentage of young children in the ages 0-14 and old
persons aged 65 and over than is found in the urban
population. Conversely, the urban sector has more of its
population concentrated in the ages 15-64. This situation
gives rise to a higher dependency, of the young andthe old, in the rural areas.
Table 6. Population of the Philippines by Age and Sex as Reported in I960 and 1970
Censuses and Per Cent Change (Population in Thousands)
AgeGroups

Total
Percent
1960 1970 Change

All Ages 27088 36684
4572 6212
0-44369 5529
5-93435 5030
10-14
2814 4083
15-19
2459 3153
20-24
1953 2462
25-29
1556 2073
30-341428 1900
35-39
1099 1486
40-441033 1283
45-49
710 1016
50-54
808
488
55-59
614
431
60-64
739 1034
65 +

35.4
35.9
26.5
46.4
45.1
28.2
26.0
33.2
33.6
35.2
24.3
43.1
65.6
42.5
39.9

Male
I960 1970

Percent
ChangeFemale1960 1970

Per Cent
Change13663 18250
2354 3149
2254 2826
1766 2549
1385 1984
1194 1527
952 1190
765 1008
702
941
546
732
626
525
502
362
252
403
232
311
369
506

33.6
33.8
25.1
44.3
43.3
27.9
24.9
31.9
34.0
34.0
19.4
37.5
59.7
34.4
37.2

13425 18434
2218 3063
2115 2708
1669 2481
1429 2099
1264 1626
1001 1272
791 1065
726
959
552
754
508
657
34Í
514
236
405
199
303
370
528

37.3
38.1
28.1
48.6
46.8
28.6
27.1
34.5
32.1
36.4
29.3
49.1
72.0
52.0
42.7

SOURCES: Bureau of the Census and Statistics Office, Census Report of1960; National Census and Statistics, Census Report for 1970.

The sex-age'distributions of the population in thecensuses of 1960 and 1970 are provided in Table 6.
Overall, the number of persons in each group increased
substantially, the smallest increase being 26 per centreported for the age group 25-29 years. Increases ofmore than 40 per cent were registered in the age groups
10-14, 15-19, 50-54, 55-59 and 60-64. Similar increases
were also noted in the same age groups among females.
The amount of increase for these same age groups is lesssharp among males. Regardless of sex, the age group55-59 years exhibited a dramatic increase. In general, thede Guzman

41

observed increments may be due to reductions of infant
and child mortality in the case of the younger ages andto better reporting of population in the advanced ages in
the later census. Further analysis of the enumerated
figures is limited by possible errors in the censuses.
For example, in the 1960 census, irregularities in thereported numbers of the population, caused by "heaping"and "scooping" have been found in the middle range
ages and thereafter in all age groups beginning withzero, although the distortions at late ages are rather
short range.1 The irregularities were largely due toerrors in age reporting and possibly caused in part bydifferential under-enumeration in the case of males.
Errors in the 1970 census may have arisen throughselective under-enumeration, misreporting of ages, andcoding errors? Irregularities were noted especially inthe age groups 15-24 where there was a deficit of about
450,000 males as compared to females, resulting froman apparent under-statement of ages particularly among
women in the middle ages.
Table 7. Percentage Distribution of the Philippine Population
by Sex and Residence, 1970
Male
Age Groups

Tolal

Female

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

AH Ages
0-4
5-14
15-24
25-49
50-64
65 +

100.0
17.2
29.5
19.3
24.6
6.6
2.8

100.0
16.2
27.8
21.0
25.7
6.6
2.7

loo.o
17.7
30.2
18.5
24.1
6.7
2.8

100.0
16.6
28.1
20.2
25.6
6.6
2.9

100.0
14.8
25.7
23.8
26.3
6.6
2.8

100.0
17.5
29.4
18.5
25.1
6.6
2.9

0^1
15-64
65 +

46.7
50.5
2.8

44.0
53.3
2.7

47.9
49.3
2.8

44.7
52.4
2.9

40.5
56.7
2.8

46.9
50.2
2.9

SOURCE: National Census and Statistics Office, Census Report for 1970
1

See analysis of sex and age distribution by Frank W. Lorimer in his"Analysis and Projections of the Population of the Philippines, "First
Conference on Population, 1965, Quezon City: Population Institute, 1966,
pp. 243-249.
o^Evidences of such errors were discovered by Yun Kim and others in theiranalysis of the 1970 census for projection purposes. See "Population
Projections for the Philippines by Province, 1970-2000," Population
Dimension of Planning, Vol. II, National Census and Statistics Office, 1975.

42

POPULA TION COMPOSITION

The age composition of the population by geographicaldivisions is displayed in Table 7. Metropolitan Manila
has the smallest proportion of the population in the ages
0-14 and the greatest in the ages 15-64. This region also
has the oldest population, with a median age of 19.1
years, well above the national figure. The Bicol Region
which has the largest proportion of the population in
the age group 0-14 (49 per cent) is the youngest region,
with a median age of 15.5 years. It is very obvious that
the Mindanao regions form a very homogeneous groupwith uniform proportions for the various functional age
groups.
Dependency burden. The level and change in theburden of dependency easily influences various socialand economic decisions. It provides a glimpse into theamount of financial pressure on the potential earner.
The dependency burden or load, which is the ratio of
the population aged 0-14 and 65 + to the population of
economically-productive ages (commonly defined as theages 15-64), has followed an upward trend since thestart of the present century, a phenomenon consistent
with the high level of fertility in this country and withthe dramatic decline in infant and child deaths.
T»ble 8. Age Structure of the Population by Reglo«, 1970
Regions
llocos Region
Cagayan Valley
Central Luzon
Southern Luzon
Bicol Region
Western Visayas
Central Visayas
Eastern Visayas
Western Visayas
Northern Mindanao
Southern Mindanao
Metro Manila

AU
Ages

<M

100:0 14.3
100.0t 17.0
100.0 16.0
100.0 16.4
100.0. 17.1
100.0 15.3
100.0 15.3
100.0 16.2
100.0 16.2
100.0 16.6
100.0 17.1
100.0 14.4

5-14 15-24 25-49 50-64 65 + 0-14 15-64 .65 +
28.3
31.0
29.3
29.5
31.9
30.3
29.3
31.5
31.7
31.3
30.8
25.3

Med.
Age

18.4 .25,3. 8.8 . 4.9 42.6 52.5. 4.9 . 18.6
2.7 48.0 49.3 2.7
18.0 24.6 6.7
16.3
3.2 45.3 51.5 3.2
20.2 24.3 7.0
17.1
6.4
2.9 45.9 51.2 2.9
19.7 25.1
16.9
2.9 49.0 48.1 2.9
18.6 23.0 6.5
15.5
3.2 45.5 51.3 3.2
19.2 24.8 7.2
17.0
3.8 44.6 51.6 3.8
18.9. 25.0 7.7
17.5
3.3 .47.7 49.0 3.3
17.1 24.5 7.4
16.2
1.7 47.9. 50.4. . 1.7 \6SS
19.2 .25.8 5A
1.7 47.9 50.4. 1.7
19.2 - 25.7. 5.5
16.0.
1.7 47.9 50.4
1.7
19.7 25.4 5.3
16.0
1.9
1.9 39.7 58.4
24.6 27.8 6.0
19.1

SOURCE: National Census and Statistics Office Census Report for 1970.

de Guzman

43

The dependency burden reached a record high of 943
dependents for every 1000 persons in the ages 15-64 in
1970. The corresponding ratio was 750 in 1903, 872 in
1918, 861 in 1939, 898 in 1948, and 939 in 1960. It has
been observed that decreases in the aged dependency
burden have not sufficiently offset the increases in thechild dependency burden.
Preschool and school-age population, in the Philippines, the minimum age of entrance in school is sevenyears, so persons aged 0-6 comprise the pre-school
population. In the 1960 census, this group formed 23.8
per cent of the total population. Among males, theproportion is 12.3 per cent, while among females it is11.5 per cent. In the 1970 census, this group represented
23.6 per cent of the total population, indicating a slightdecline in the relative share of this group by 0.2
percentage points over the 10-year period. However,these figures tend to conceal the real situation because
the number of persons in this age group, in absoluteterms, actually increased by 34 per cent during theintercensal period.
In 1970, the percentage of the population in the ages
7-20 was 35.3 per cent while the percentage of the sameages a decade earlier was 34.3 per cent. This means ; thatthe relative share of the population in this group hasbarely changed. Male and female differentials are also insubstantial. But the absolute number of the school-age
population increased by a little over 39 per cent between
1960 and 1970. The persistent problem of providing
educational opportunities for all is thus quite understandable.
Female population in the reproductive ages. The
important segment of the female population which
influences the level of the birth rate is the number ofwomen in the reproductive or childbearing ages, 15-49

POPULATION COMPOSITION

44

years. In 1970, the proportion of female population inthese ages was 46 per cent. The corresponding proportionin 1960 was 47 per cent, which means a decrease of one
percentage point in this group within the ten-year
interval. Nevertheless, it has been observed that theabsolute number of these women has been increasing
and the 1970 census shows a rise by 40 per cent since1960. Such rise is attributable to high fertility andlowered mortality rates which insure an increasingly
larger number of women reaching the childbearing ages.
Table 9a. Percentage Distribution of Persons Aged 15 and Over By Age, Sex,
and Marital Status: Philippines, 1960
Marital Status
Age and Sex
Total

Never
MarriedCurrently
MarriedWidowedDivorced/
SeparatedMALE
All Ages
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

35.5
97.0
65.5
27.1
11.4
6.1
4.1
3.2
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.4

60.8
2.9
33.9
71.6
86.8
91.3
92.1
91.9
89.7
88.1
84.0
73.1

3.3
0.0
0.3
0.8
1.3
2.1
3.3
4.4
6.8
8.7
13.0
24.0

0.4
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5

FEMALEAll Ages
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

31.1
87.3
44.3
19.5
11.6
8.1
7.6
7.0
7.7
6.9
6.8
6.1

60.3
12.4
54.5
78.2
84.8
86.4
83.2
80.2
72.2
68.3
54.6
39.5

7.8
0.1
0.6
1.4
2.7
4.6
8.3
11.8
19.1
23.9
37.8
53.9

0.7
0.2
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.6

SOURCE:

Bureau of the Census and Statistics, Census Report for 1960.

de Guzman

45

Marital Status

Recent findings from the 1973 National Demographic
Survey disclosed the proportions of single and marriedmales, 15 years and over, to be 35.5 per cent and 60.8
per cent, respectively (see Tables 9a and 9b). The
comparable figures for femaies were 31.1 per cent single
and 60.3 per cent married. When compared with the1960 figures, it can be gleaned that the proportions for
Table 9b. Percentage Distribution of Persons Aged 15 and Over by Age, Sex,
and Marital Status: Philippines, 1973
Marital Status
Age and Sex

Total

Never
MarriedCurrently
MarriedWidowedDivorced/
SeparatedMALE
All Ages
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

37.8
97.3
72.2
32.3
13.4
7.0
5.3
3.9
3.6
2.1
2.4
2.5

59.5
2.4
27.3
66.7
86.0
91.6
92.5
93.9
92.1
92.1
90.1
76.2

2.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.2
1.8
1.8
3.8
5.3
6.9
20.2

0.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0,7
1.0

FEMALEAll Ages
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

34.7
91.5
55.9
24.8
13.7
7.3
5.9
6.8
7.3
6.8
7.9
6.7

57.3
8.3
42.8
73.2
82.7
86.3
85.8
82.5
76.6
73.4
66.0
40.9

6.6
0.1
0.1
0.5
2.0
5.1
5.8
7.9
14.6
17.6
24.9
51.6

1.3
0.1
1.2
\.S
1.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
1.5
2.3
L2
0.7

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey'

POPULATION COMPOSITION

46

single persons increased whereas the proportions for
those married decreased, irrespective of sex. The
percentage single among males showed a gain of 2.3
percentage points, while the percentage married decreasedby 1.3 percentage points between 1960 and 1973. Among
females, the proportion single rose by 3.6 percentage
points, while the proportion married diminished by 3.0
percentage points.
The proportions widowed increased with advancing
age. In general, these proportions reflect the higher
incidence of widowhood among females and theimprovement in mortality conditions over time.
Table 10. Fcrcents of Females Single by Age, and Singnlate Mean Ages
at Marriage, 1903-1973
Year

Age Group
1903

1939 a

1948

1960

1970

1973

Per Cent Single
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
4<M4
45^9?
Singulate Mean Age
at Marriage

73.6
33.3
15.6
15.6
9.4
9.4
7.8

80.3
36.2
15.7
15.7
7.4
7.4
5.4

85.1
40.7
18.8
12.6
9.5
8.7
6.9

87.3
44.3
19.5
11.6
8.1
7.6
7.0

89.2
50.3
21.5
11.7
8.0
7.3
6.7

91.5
55.9
24.8
13.7
7.3
5.9
6.8

20.9

21.9

22.1

22.3

22.8

23.4

"Women with marital status not reported have been removed from thetotal.
b45-54 in 1903 and 1939
SOURCE: Peter C. Smith, "Evidence of Continuing Nuptiality Change:
New National Data on Marital Status from the 1970 Census
and the 1973 NDS," Research Note No. Il, UPPI, 1974.

The changes in the per cents single among females
and the singulate mean ages at marriage (SMAM) forthe period 1903-1973 are recorded in Table 10. A
substantial delay in female age at marriage occurred
during the-1903-1973 period with an acceleration of thetrend during the 1960s and a further acceleration
between 1970 and 1973. In 1903, about one out of four
women in the ages 15-19 was married, but in 1973 one

de.GuzmanAlout of twelve women in the same ages was married.
Marriage before age 20 is becoming rarer among
Filipino females. Consequently, the mean age atmarriage has risen from 20.9 years in 1903 to 23.4 years
in 1973, showing an increase of some 2.5 years over the
70-year period. Evidently, much of the change in themarital status of those aged 15-19 occurred prior to1948, whereas the shift involving the women in the agegroup 20-24 and 25-34 occurred just recently.
Nevertheless, marriage in the Philippines remains
almost universal. In 1973, only about seven per cent of
all women who had reached age 45-49 remained single.
The corresponding percentage for 1903 (about 8 percent) shows no substantial change in the proportion of
women who choose to remain single.
In an analysis of urban-rural differences in marriage
pattern, Smith (1975) found that the index in marriage
pattern, I m> in the urban sector experienced greater
downward shifts than in the rural area. The 1970 urban
index of marriage pattern in 1970 (0.531) is 31 per centbelow the 1903 national level (0.770). Manila, which wascharacterized by early marriage at the beginning of thepresent century, emerges with the lowest index (0.470),by 1970, almost a third lower than the 1970 rural figure
and about two-fifths below the 1903 national index.
Regional patterns in the proportion single among the
population and in singulate mean age at marriage(SMAM) by age and sex in 1973 can be seen in Table
11. Among females, the highest SMAM was registeredin the Bicol Region (24.6 years), but almost all womenin this region married. Only one per cent of women,
45-54 years of age in this region, remained single. In
contrast, Western Visayas reported 15 per cent of theirwomen in the same age group who remained single.
Mean age at marriage was also high in Metropolitan
Manila (24.5 years). In the ages 15-19, only one out of
25 women was married, and among women five years

POPULATION COMPOSITION

48

XI

c

10
"m

es ON en ( S
00

VO

•n
en

u-> O ooo ** o

VO

en VO

vo

r- oo rs

25

31.
16.
31.
19.
13.

es p_ ineno Os r»

74

VO

S

00

en

o,

VO 0 0

S

o

CN

a

M

rn

s

^. rn

Si

00

oo

o\ m

s

S

>

>

X X

„n vo
•r,
ts ON oo es w-t

OO

o

p.

ON en
-

r- 0 0
rvo

VO

eS

r-

^
^. es o
VO >n m O
wn
en

o
ÎS
„

s en ooes

S
c/)
"5

T3
C
m

S
CD
<

es es ^. o ^00

00

m

S
^^

o

O

VO

oí
VO

^.

s S s;

>

VJ

re

s
c

1

IIA

-

>

IIIA

^^

8l

00

en
oo

„.

30
30

o _

es

s

m es VO »n VO »n

VIII Eastern Visayas
IX. Northern Mindanao
Southern Mindanao

-

O

en

00

^*

25-29

8

p.

VO C S OO VO

67

oo en ON o

ON O

O

17

OC

n
r~
en

o ON vo VO ooes »n oVOes

es es es

"

VD

ON

M

X

I!
** C
E

ter

VO

Maie

12

^.
en

00

l

S N>o es

_

20-24

23

CM

fS Í SVO»oFemaleRegionsB

00m VO en<S oo
VO O \

rlrt

Metropolitan Manila
llocos & Mt. Province
III Cagayan Valley-Batanes
IV Central Luzon
Southern Luzon
VI Bicol

t |

-

15-

M

Per Cent Single

i

«ri o

Si

30-34

m

Oí

m

57

i
•I *

00

O M

-se

E

l l

o

Metropolitan Manila
llocos & Mt. Province
III Cagayan Valley-Batanes
Central Luzon
Southern Luzon
Bicol
VII Western Visayas
Eastern Visayas
Northern Mindanao
Southern MindanaoiVO oo oo
• *

o r)

vo ON

en

es (N es es

CM IN

40-44

1

l

o

•n VO

22
22
22

3ft

45-

e

15
19
18

Singu late
Me
Age
Marn

D

ta

d a.
*ï5
c
o5 o
a. '50)>
ce
lii

o

ce

z>
o

de Guzman

49

older, only about one out of four was married. In
contrast, Cagayan Valley and Batanes, recording thelowest mean age at marriage (20.1 years), had about one
out of 10 women in the ages 15-19 and almost one outof two women aged 20-24, married. The Mindanao
regions, forming a homogeneous group, exhibited very
minor variations.
In general, women married men three years theirsenior (Panel B, Table 11). The highest mean age atmarriage among men was recorded in Metropolitan
Manila (27.6 years) and the lowest in Cagayan Valley
and Batanes (23.5 years). The SMAM for males was 2.0
years higher than that for females. The overall
male-female difference was 8.4 per cent.
Urban-rural differentials in the singulate mean age atmarriage by regional groupings and by sex wereanalyzed by Smith (1974) using the data from the 1973
National Demographic Survey. He demonstrated thatthe urban age at marriage exceeded the rural by 2.9
years for females and by 2.5 years for males. In
addition, there were substantial regional differences formales and females within urban and rural sectors. He
observed that the urban females had higher singulatemean ages at marriage than the rural females in the
Bicol Region, Western Visayas, and Southern Mindanao.
The urban-rural difference was relatively slight in the
Cagayan Valley and Batanes area, Central Luzon, andEastern Visayas. For males, the urban-rural difference
was highest in the llocos and Mt. Province. The sex
difference was slightly greater in the rural (11.2 per cent)than in the urban (8.3 per cent) sector in favor of themales. Across regions, the urban male-female differences in SMAM ranged from 2.7 per cent to 15.4 per cent,while the rural sex difference varied from 7.1 per cent to27 per cent.

50

POPULA TION COMPOSITION

Household Composition
In the Philippines, a household is defined two ways:
as an entire group of persons living together, sharing
common housekeeping arrangements, or a person livingby himself and having separate and distinct housekeeping
arrangements. A household then may consist of one ormore than one family, or of non-related persons, or ofjust one person. A household head is one who reports
himself as such or is so reported by another member ofthe household.
In 1973, there were 6.75 million households as against
5.36 million in 1968. This means that the number ofhouseholds rose by 26 per cent over the five-year period.
Nine out of 10 households were headed by males, bothin 1968 and in 1973. In 1973, the number of rural
households (4.72 millions) exceeded the number ofurban households (2.02 millions) by 134 per cent.
Table 12. Percentage Distribution of Households by Number of Persons,1968 and 1973
No. of Persons

1968

1973

All
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 or more
No Information
Mean Household Size

100.0
0.6
4.3
8.3
12.6
13.8
14.2
11.2
10.6
6.5
11.5
6.3
5.8

100.0
1.4
5.1
9.2
13.2
14.0
14.6
12.9
11.2
7.4
10.9
—
6.1

SOURCES: 1968 National Demographic Survey
1973 National Demographic Survey

51

de Guzman

Rapid declines in mortality in the absence of
substantial fertility declines such as those occurring inmost developing Asian societies have been causing
increases in family and household size in the Philippines.
The average household expanded in size from 5.8
persons in 1968 to 6.1 persons in 1973. Table 12 shows
the percentage distribution of households by number of
persons for 1968 and 1973. The relationship starts witha direct one as the number of household members
increases from one to six persons, beyond this the
proportions decline uninterruptedly. A comparison of
the 1968 and 1973 data reveals an increase in thenumber of large-sized households (six persons or more).
In 1973, more than one-half of all households werelarge-sized. Increases in the number of households madeup of six members or more were accompanied byincreases in the number of small-sized households (oneto three persons). Between 1968 and 1973, the numberof one-person households more than doubled and thosewith two or three members rose from 12.6 per cent to14.3 per cent.
Table 13. Percentage Distribution of Households by Family Typeand Residence, 1968 and 1973
Year and Residence
Family Type

One-Person Household
Nuclear Family
Stem Family
Joint/Stem-Joint Family
Household of Related
Persons
Household of Unrelated
Persons
Total

1968

1973

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

0.7
78.1
17.1
3.9

0.5
71.0
21.7
6.4

0.7
81.1
15.2
2.8

1.3
78.0
13;6
6.5

1.2
69.1
18.2
10.4

1.5
81.8
11.7
4.9

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1
100.0

0.2
100.0

0.1
100.0

0.3
100.0

0.8
100.0

100.0

SOURCES: 1968 National Demographic Survey
1973 National Demographic Survey

52

POPULA TION COMPOSITION

Households are predominantly nuclear. About eightout of 10 households consist of nuclear families (seeTable 13). The incidence of nuclear families is moreprevalent in the rural than in the urban areas, and thedata indicate a widening of the differential. Quite
interestingly, this is the opposite of what has been
observed in some developing Asian countries such as
Thailand (1972), South Korea (1972), and Taiwan(1972), where nuclear families predominate in urban
places. The stem family definition was found to be themore common extension than the joint or stem-joint
family. The former numbered over four times larger
than the latter. However, a decrease was noted in the
proportion stem with a corresponding increase in the
proportion joint/stem-joint, irrespective of residence.
Households of related persons and of unrelated persons
remain small, but increases in these types were registeredin 1973.
As shown in Table 14, the median age of households
heads more or less remained constant overall between
1968 and 1973. Increases in the number of households
headed by persons aged 15-24 have been noted, butthese were counterbalanced by increases in the proportions of households headed by individuals aged 45-54
and 65 + . Very slight changes in the median ages were
exhibited when residence is controlled, with the urban
heads getting a bit younger and their rural counterparts
becoming older.
Using the data from the 1968 National Demographic
Survey, Lim (1973) compared nuclear and extended
households according to demographic and socio-culturalcharacteristics of household members. Extended households had more members than their counterparts. The
median number of members for extended households
was 6.4 persons, while that for nuclear households was
about five persons. Nuclear households were made up ofyounger individuals. A relatively large proportion of

53

de Guzman

Table 14. Percentage Distribution of Households By Age and Place of Residenceof Household Heads. 1968- and 1973
Residence and Year
Age

15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 +
Total
Median Age

1968
Total

Urban

2.7
23.2
28.7
21.3
15.1
9.0
100.0
42.9

3.2
21.0
28.2
23.4
16.3
8.8
100.0
44.0

1973
Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

2.9
24.2
28.9
20.3
14.6
9.0
100.0
42.4

4.7
22.4
27.5
21.7
14.3
9.4
100.0
42.8

3.9
20.8
29.0
20.5
15.5
10.2
100.0
43.2

5.1
23.2
26.9
22.0
13.7
9.0
100.0
42.6

SOURCES: 1968 National Demographic Survey
1963 National Demographic Survey

their members consisted of children aged 0-14. Incomparison, extended households had older members,
about 58 per cent in the ages 15-64, against 49 per centin the same ages for nuclear households. This older
composition among extended households is beneficial
for economic reasons. Extended households were discovered to have higher per capita income, on the
average, than nuclear households.
Nartatez (1975) examined household size differentials
using the household head's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. More than 50 per cent ofmarried heads were at the helm of large-sized households (six persons or more), regardless of sex and placeof residence. Household size was positively related withthe education of the head. Relatively more one-personhouseholds were headed by unschooled persons. Heads
belonging to the professional and white-collar occupations had bigger households than those in the blue-collar
and farm occupations.
The growth in household size may be expected tocease eventually, with family size starting to, contract,
after fertility declines have overtaken mortality declines.
As a response to development, average household size

54

, POPULA TION COMPOSITION

increases simply because the average number of surviving
children increases. One would then expect the family todecrease in size as the level of fertility falls in response
to lower levels of mortality and improved living
conditions (Burch, 1967).

Literacy, Education, andSchool Enrollment
In 1970, over 8 out of every 10 Filipinos (83 percent), aged
10 years and over, could read and write a simple
message. This means a gain of about four per cent inliteracy over the 1960 figure. Expectedly, the proportion
literate among males was higher than females in 1970(85 per cent vs. 82 per cent). The situation in that same
year showed that the gains achieved since 1960 weregreater for females than for males, inasmuch as 71 percent of all females, 10 years and older in 1960, wereliterate. The corresponding proportion for males was 74 percent.
The urban literacy rate is higher than the rural rate. About
one out of three persons in the urban area was literate against
one out of four in the rural sector. The rural population
manifested a greater male-female differential than the urban
population.
International comparison of enrollment ratios and of
graduates to total population showed that the Philippines
educates as high a proportion of its people as the advanced
countries in the world. In terms of higher education
enrollment per 100,000 population, the country ranked
second to the United States and compared favorably withother advanced countries in terms of enrollment ratios forboth elementary and secondary education.
More than half of the population, aged 25 years and over,completed at least a year of elementary education as of 1970,

de Guzman

55

but only 14 per cent finished high school. Only one out of 10
has gone through, college. About one-fifth have notcompleted any grade at all. The urbanités were better
educated than their rural counterparts. In the urban areas,
24.0per cent have had high school education and 21 per cententered college. The corresponding figures for the rural
population were nine per cent and four per cent,respectively.
Table 15. Percentage Distribution of Population with College Degrees by Sex
and By Major Field of Study, 1910
Field of Study

Both Sexes

Male

FemaleHumanities
Education
Fine Arts
Law
Social Science
Natural Science
Engineering
Medical Science
Agriculture
Course, Not Stated
Total

3.7
44.2
1.1
4.0
24.2
0:6
7.9
8.1
1.6
4.6
100.0

5.1
23.7
1.8
8.2
30.1
0.6
16.9
5.2
3.2
5.2
100.0

2.5
60.6
0.6
0.7
19.2
0.6
0.8
10.5
0.3
4.2
100.0

SOURCE: NCSO, Census Report for 1970.

In the 1970 census, only three per cent of the total
population reported themselves as having graduated fromcollege. Of this number, 44.3 per cent were males and 55.7
per cent were females. As is apparent in Table 15, educationis the most popular area of study, with more than two-fifthsof all professionals holding degrees in this field. There is a
dearth in the number of professionals in the moredevelopment-oriented courses, with only one out of 12
having graduated in the medical sciences, and about thesame number in engineering courses. Surprisingly, only
about two per cent had a degree in agriculture, despite thecountry having a predominantly agricultural economy.
Other seemingly unattractive fields were the natural sciences(0.6per cent),finearts(l.l per cent), and the humanities (3.7
per cent).

56

POPULA TION COMPOSITION

The field of education is the female's preserve, claiming
more than three out of every five female professionals, ascompared to less than one out of four male professionals. In
the medical sciences, the proportion for females was twicethat for males. In contrast, relatively more males were inengineering (16.9 per cent) and the social sciences (30.1 percent). The corresponding figures for females were 0.8 percent and 19.2 per cent, respectively. The other courses
dominated by males were law, humanities, and fine arts.
In the Philippines, compulsory elementary education isprovided by law. Children are required to attend school fromages seven to 13. In fact, not infrequently, children aged fiveto six are enrolled in school, if not in the elementary school,in the kindergarten. In less than five years between 1972 and1975, the number of children enrolled in elementary schools
increased by 11.4 per cent, to reach a level of 7.53 million.
The number of students enrolled in high school in 1972
was 1.7 million. Showing the highest rate of growth among
all educational levels (22 per cent), high school enrollment
rose to 2.1 million in 1975, signifying a better holding powerof the schools.
Colleges and universities in the Philippines had anenrollment of 0.69 million in 1972. By 1975, college
attendance increased to 0.83 million.
While the number of students in all three levels(elementary, secondary, and college) has been increasing
rapidly in absolute terms, the proportion attending school
has not changed greatly during the period 1972-1975. Total
school enrolment in 1972 was 9.2 million, representing 23.5
per cent of the total population. Three years later, 10.5
million students attended school, merely a little over 25 percent of the 1975 population.

57

de Guzman

Ethnicity
Ethnic groups are identified by the first local language or
dialect spoken (mother tongue). More than 75 dialects werelisted in the 1970 census.
The most numerous are the Tagalogs, making up 24.4 percent of the total population in 1970. The Cebuanos ranked
next with 24.1 per cent. More than one-fifth of the
population were Ilocanos (11.3 per cent) and Hiligaynons(10.2 per cent). One out of 14 Filipinos was a Bicolano andone out of 20 was a Waray speaker. The proportion speaking
Pampango and Pangasinan were 3.3 per cent and 2.3 per centrespectively. The remaining ethnic groups represented 12.8
per cent of the entire population.
Religion
As is apparent in Table 16, the Philippines ispredominantly Roman Catholic. Exactly 17 out every 20
inhabitants professed this religion in 1970. A very poorsecond is Islam with only 4.3 per cent, followed by Aglipayan(3.9 per cent). Protestants numbered a little over three percent and 1.3 per cent reported themselves as affiliated with
the Iglesia ni Kristo.
Tibie 16. Distribution of Population by Religion and Per Cent Change:
1960 and 1970
1960
ReligionAll
Roman CatholicProtestantIglesia ni Kristo
Aglipayan
Islam
Buddhist
Others1970

Population

Per
Cent

Population

Per
Cent

27,087,685
22,686,096
785,399
270,104
1,414,431
1,317,475
39,631
574,549

100.0
83.8
2.9
1.0
5.2
4.9
0.1
2.1

36,684,486
31,169,488
1,122,999
475,407
1,436,688
1,584,963
33,639863,302

100.0
85.0
3.1
1.3
3.9
4.3
0.1
2.3

SOURCE: NCSO, Census Report for 1970.

Per Cent
Change1960-1970+ 37.4+ 43.0+ 76.0+ 1.6+ 20.3-15.1+ 50.2

58

POPULATIONCOMPOSITION

All religious denominations experienced increases
between 1960 and 1970, with the exception of Buddhists.
The Iglesia ni Kristo swelled in number by 76 per centsince 1960. Roman Catholics increased by 37.4 per centand Protestants by 43 per cent. The Moslems increased
by one-fifth, while persons reporting no religious
affiliations and those belonging to other religious groups
altogether rose by more than a half. Conversely, thenumber of adherents to Buddhism fell by 15.1 per cent.
In sum, minor changes occurred in the relative shares ofeach type of religion.

AliensOf the total number of inhabitants in the Philippines
in 1970, only 219,438 were registered as aliens, a mere
0.6 per cent. These foreigners were mostly Asians(161,151 persons). Chinese led all other nationalities
with 86,855, followed by the Japanese who numbered
51,692. There were 19,192 Americans and 12,402 South
Koreans.
Europeans, as a whole, numbered 4,044. Aliens fromAfrica and Central America reached about 2,000. SouthAmerica was the region least represented with only 263
persons.
The number of males exceeded that of females (52.6
per cent as against 47.4 per cent). More than 34 per centwere aged below 15 years. About a fifth was found in
the age group 15-24 and another fifth in the age group25-44. Old persons (65 years and over) were counted tocomprise 4.9 per cent.

de Guzman

59

REFERENCES
Burch, Thomas K. "The Size and Structure of Families:
A Comparative Analysis of Census Data." American
Sociological Review, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 347-363.
Freedman, Ronald and Baron Moots. "Household Size
and Composition in Taiwan: 1967." Paper prepared
for the Third Organization of Demographic Associates Workshop, Manila, 1973.
Lee, Hae Young, "Household of Korea, 1960-1966."
Paper presented at the Second Organization of Demographic Associates Workshop, Hongkong, 1972.
Lim, Alice C. "A Comparative Study of Nuclear andExtended Households in the Philippines." UnpublishedM.A. thesis, University of the Philippines, 1973.
Nartatez, Luisa B. "Patterns, Trenas, and Differentials
in Household Structure and Size: From Two Surveys."
Research Note No. 66, University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.
Prachuabmoh, Visid and Others. "The Rural and Urban
Population of Thailand: Comparative Profiles."Research Report No. 8, December 1972, Institute ofPopulation Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Smith, Peter C. "Distribution of Population by Age,Sex, and Marital Status, May, 1973: Urban-Rural andRegional Patterns." Research Note No. 19, UPPI,
1974.
"Provincialand UrbanRural Differences in Marriage Pattern: The Evidence
for the 1960s." Research Note No. 49, UPPI, 1975.

POPULATION
DISTRIBUTIONAURORA E. PEREZOWING to the country's geographical structure—charac-terized mainly by territorial fragmentation and great
diversity in land areas—the population of the Philippines is unevenly distributed; simultaneous forces havealso contributed to areal differentiation in population
size and growth. These forces are generally accepted as
the major determinants of regional differences in
economic potential and growth; they include the basic
physical and climatic conditions, the natural resources,
market systems, employment opportunities, transportation facilities and basic demographic traits.
While some areal units are larger than others in size,
some incongruencies in growth rates exist. Larger areas.sometimes display growth rates lower than smaller areas.
There is an interplay of the above-mentioned forces,
leading to areal differentiation in population-related
aspects of development.
An easy way of presenting the variegated size of thecountry's population is by comparing densities of thecomponent areal units. Although misleading in someways, this crude index of distribution bears important
implications in drawing the country's population geography. Other indicators of population distribution are(1) the urban-rural configuration of the population, and(2) the place of birth and /or past residence-current
residence statistics. Taken altogether, these indices—61

62

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

population size differences, differential growth rates,
density variations, urban-rural configuration and placeof-birth and/or past residence/current residence statistics—form a pool of suggestive evidences of theunderlying socio-demographic phenomenon that isinternal migration.
Often, the changes in the proportional share of thecountry's total population in fixed areal units is equatedwith mobility over space and the resultant redistributionof population. This chapter focuses on the spatial aspectof population with special emphasis on inter-regional
population movements. Data, as of 1970, are mostly on
the regional level. It should be noted that in some cases
the City of Manila, because of its unique socio- economic stature, forms a twelfth region.
Population Distribution and Size

Regional level. The irregular apportionment of thecountry's total population over its 11 regional divisions
substantiate the regional similarity/dissimilarity ingrowth rates and density (see Table A).
In 1970, a little over one-fifth of the nation's 36.7
million inhabitants settled in the Southern Tagalog
Region situated at the central portion of the country.
Central Luzon, a neighboring region lying north of theSouthern Tagalog region, with a population of 5.1
million, ranked second. Two regions in the Visayan
group of islands, Western and Central Visayas, ranked
third and fifth, respectively. Each had a proportionate
share of 9.7 and 8.3 per cent of the national population.
One region of the tripartite Mindanao islands, Southern
Mindanao, had a share of 8.4 per cent of the country's
population, thus, ranking fourth in regional size of
population.
Provincial level. Of the 67 provinces in 1970, Rizal
province with a population of 2.8 million was superior

Perez63

in size to Cebu (the second largest province,) by 42.6 percent. It even surpassed Manila's population by 53.2 per
cent. It is a well known fact that the province of Rizal
had, during the 60s, a swelling population due to (a) its
reception of the population spilling from the 38.3 square
kilometer confines of the City of Manila, and (b) its
increasing attractiveness by reason of growing industrialization and expansion of manufacturing activities.
Other large provinces, though not as industrialized as
Rizal, are Negros Occidental, Pangasinan, Iloilo, Cotabato, Leyte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Camarines Sur.
Most of these are located in the Visayas and Mindanao
regions possessing agricultural potential which may besubject to development. This potential serves as amagnetic force drawing in contingents of in-migrants
from the agriculturally depressed areas.
If the population of these ten largest provinces were
to be combined, well over one-third of the total
population would be accounted for in the country's
population geography.
Differential Growth Rates

Regional level. Regional differences in fertility rates
and mortality rates as well as migration rates are themain sources of differential growth rates. During thedecades of the sixties, Southern Mindanao region, whichis the second largest region in land area, grew fastest (atthe rate of 4.72 per cent), followed by the Southern
Tagalog region, containing the largest province (Rizal),
growing at a rate of 4.14 per cent. The growth of these
two regions are illustrative examples of two giant forces
affecting population growth, outside the natural increase
equation of births minus deaths, namely (1) the"agricultural potential" pull and (2) the "urban" pull.
The first is commonly equated to the availability ofland for agricultural development, while the second pull

64

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

usually refers to the industrial structure of urban areas
which accommodates further employment. Four otherregions, two in Luzon and two down south in
Mindanao, grew at rates exceeding the national growthrate of 3.01 per cent.
In a study of inter-regional migration flows (Smith,
1975; Perez 1975), the same regions mentioned earlier
exhibited the highest in-migration rates in 1970. One
may derive the correlation between differential growth
rates and in-migration rates from such, an observation.
Provincial level. As is commonly observed and whichholds true for the regions, growth rates at the provincial
level during the 1960-70 decade indicate an interplay offorces of varying intensity that is in accord with a wide
scale of rates ranging from 0.37 per cent in Catanduanes
to 7.70 per cent in Bukidnon. The growth registered for
Bukidnon implies a rate of change of 113.4 per centover its 1960 population. The repercussions of change
have to be dealt with wisely. Likewise, the growth
assimilated by the province of Rizal incurred a relatively
high rate of change, 95.3 per cent, within the ten-year
period. A policy implication of interest for both public
and private sectors of the country is how to cushion theimpact and consequences of such tremendous population
growth so as to keep the adverse effects on thesocio-ecomic structure of such areas to the minimum.
Density
Regional level. At a glance (see Figure l) thedensities of the geographic regions of the Philippines
point out the importance of how population concentration
greatly affects the formulation of the nation's regional
development policies. The density of the Philippines in1970 was found to be 122.3 persons per square
kilometer, assuming the population of 36.7 to be evenly
distributed. Of the 11 regions, six had densities below

Perez65

the national average and the remaining five were foundto be densely populated. Region III (Central Luzon)
located at the central portion of the country and Region
VII (Central Visayas) down in the south, had densities
twice the national figure. Population pressure is greatly
felt in Central Visayas since it is the smallest geographic
region, occupying only 5.0 per cent of the country's
land area. Sharp contrast is obtained when the densityof Southern Mindanao (Region XI) is compared. Thisregion is the second largest in land area, yet its density
is three times smaller than that of Central Luzon or ofCentral Visayas.
Provincial level. Manila, considered a separate province since the Spanish era, remains the primate city.
Being the center of trade and commerce as well as theseat of the national government, it has remained
the most densely populated province. In 1970, it had
34,764.4 persons per square kilometer in its 38.3 sq. km.
total land area. Rizal province, gaining in population
through substantial in-migration, ranked second with its
density of 1,529.7 persons per square kilometer. A sharp
contrast is obtained for Palawan, the least densely
populated of the country's 67 provinces. With a vastland area of 14,896.3 square kilometers goes anextremely low density of 15.9 in 1970, despite a 45.5 percent change in population during the decadal period
1960-70.
Urban-Rural Distribution

In many developing countries, most national policies
are geared toward the simultaneous development of theurban and rural sectors. While the process of urbanization may proceed at faster rates in the more modernizedareas of a country, urbanization in toto for the country,
manifests a two-fold aspect: a faster rate of population
growth in the rural sector, which upsets the growth of

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

66

the urban sector; and a tremendous growth of someselected urban areas, resulting in what is commonlyreferred to as "pseudo-urbanization."
In 1970, the Philippines was said to be 31.8 per centurban and 68.2 per cent rural. This only means thatduring the 20th century, one out of three Filipinos lived
in urban areas. Among the 12 regions, Region IV(Southern Tagalog Region) is the most urbanized, withlittle less than half of its total population consideredurban. Central Visayas ranked second with almost one
third of its regional population identified as urban.
As expected, there were more females than males in
the urban sector, only because of the formally organizedemployment structure of the urban sector which absorbs
female skills, especially in the service industry. In thetwo regions mentioned earlier, the sex ratios were about
96.5. The differences in sex ratios are especially sharp inthe working age group and the age of retirement, asshown below.
Table 1. Sex Ratios By Broad Age-Groups and Locale, 1970
Age Group
LocaleUrban
Rural
Both Sectors.

All Ages
0-14

15-64

65 +

1,029

889
993
956

875
1,000
960

1,034
1,033

945
1,012
990

SOURCE: National Census and Statistics Office, 1970 Census Report.
Note: For a graphic presentation of the Philippines' urban-rural population
distribution over these broad age groups, please see Figure 2.

In a study of Philippine urbanization, Pernia (1975),
identified three paces in the overall trend: a period of
relatively moderate growth of the urban sector during
the first four decades of the 20th century, a period of
rapid growth during the 40s and the 50s and a slackeningof growth during the decade of the 60s. An exception toPerez67

this slowing down in urban growth, however, was theincreasing concentration of population in the Metropolitan Manila Area.
Should the pace and tempo of urbanization continue
the slow and moderate tempos suggest a near tripling of
the country's 1970 urban population by the year 2000.
Residence Data

The major sources of migration data are birthplacestatistics and residence data for the years 1960, 1965,
and 1970 recorded during the 1970 census of populationand housing. Census tabulations of birthplace/past
residence-current residence show that in 1960, 12.8 percent of the population of all ages was living in a region
different from that of birth. This proportion increased
to 13.5 per cent during the latter census enumeration.
According to the 1960 census, about 3.5 million persons
were enumerated in a place other than the place ofbirth. In the following censal count, these persons
numbered 4.9 million, 71.2 per cent of which negotiatedinter-provincial transfers, and 53.1 per cent accounted
for inter-regional shifts of population.
Clearly, the population continues to be mobile atrelatively significant levels. Doubtless, the consequences
and impact of these changes in residence remain mattersof import confronting local policy makers as well asurban planners.
Internal Migration

Social scientists of late have shown considerable
concern about the relatively neglected role of spatial
mobility in the socio-economic development of acountry. The demographer's preoccupation has included
internal migration as (1) a key factor effecting population
change; (2) a variable inducing population redistribution

68

POPULATION

DISTRIBUTION

and residential relocation in different geographic areas;and (3) an adjustive mechanism concomitant togrowth and development. It is in the light of the second
and third attributes that this chapter on population
distribution and internal migration is essayed. A fair
attempt is made at establishing the link between
population movement and the process of urbanization
here viewed as an index of development affecting
population distribution.
VolumeMigration is definitely not a rare experience among
Filipinos. As was stated earlier one individual, out ofeight, was living in a region in 1960 other than that ofbirth. In 1970, this proportion rose to one out of seven.
And for a much shorter migration interval—from 1960
to 1970—one person in twelve, approximately 8.3 percent of the population aged 10 years old and over, had
moved to another region.
Generally speaking, there is supposedly an inverse
relationship between distance and migration. Table B
substantiates this common assertion as it provides somedifferences in the volume of migration by region ofresidence in 1970 and by distance of the moves, definedby transfers across migration-defining areas in the
country. The net lifetime migration rate among theenumerated population in 1970 varies according to themigration-defining area referred to.
As gleaned from the table, the inverse relationshipbetween geographical distance and migration is reflectedby the differential rates:• 24.8 per cent in terms of transfers across municipal
boundaries (column 1);• 17.6 per cent when based on movements acrossprovincial borders (column 2); andPerez69• 13.6 per cent (column 3) when migration is definedin terms of regional boundaries.
But this observation is nevertheless further qualified
by a central observation derived by comparing thecolumns of the same table—the dominance of longdistance movements involving either inter-provincial orinter-regional transfers. Thus, if the total of lifetime
migrants is regarded as composed of those who
negotiated transfers across municipal borders, 71.2 percent (column 6), moved to another province while 53.1
per cent (column 7), moved to another region. Of thetotal lifetime inter-provincial migrants in 1970, 76J7 percent (column 9), changed their regions of residence.
Similar information is obtained for migrants during
the decade of the 60s among those aged 10 years old
and over in 1970. During this period, 16.5 per cent(column 4) of the population experienced relocation ofmunicipal residences while a lower proportion, 111 percent (column 5), changed provincial addresses. Of thetotal inter-municipal migrants during the decade, some
two-thirds, roughly 66.1 per cent (column 10), moved
into another province.
Factors motivating individuals to move may havechanged and directions of these movements might havealtered considerably; however, the dominance of longdistance movements that prevailed before 1960 (Pascual,
1966; Smith, 1973) continue to be a major migratory
trait of the population in the 1960s.
Broad Inter-Regional FlowsThe more significant flows as pointed out by Smith(1975) from a historical perspective, are those acrossconsiderable distances. Prevailing regions of destination
are areas defining three broad regional divisions of thecountry: Luzon (regions I to V and XII); Visayas(regions VI-VIII); and Mindanao (regions IX to XI).
The data below summarizes the difference in volume

70

POPULATION

DISTRIBUTION

between earlier and more recent migration acrossregional boundaries (all numbers are in thousands):
Birth-to-1960(All Ages)

1960-IO-1970(Popn. 10 + )27,007

Total 12-region flow

3,452

25,076
2,092

Flow over broad regional boundaries

1,715

922

Per cent of inter-regional flowwhich is over broad regionalboundaries

49.7

Number enumeratedl

44.1

SOURCE: 1970 Census Migration Tables.
The City of Manila is treated as an independent region.

1

A detailed description of the inter-regional migration
streams and counterstreams is in itself cumbersome.
Figures 3 and 4 lay out the volume of in-migration andout-migration for each of the regions in the country
during two migration intervals: birth-to-1960 and 1960to 1970.
The salient features of Philippine inter-regionalmigration are the following:• Dominance of long-distance movements;• Frontier settlement of the Mindanao area and a
response to the "pull" forces in more urbanized areas
before 1960;• A simultaneous suburban movement from the coreof the metropolitan region (Manila) to contiguous areas
economically linked with the metropolitan center after
1960; and• Decreasing stream effectiveness after 1960.
Long-distance Movements

Of special interest among the lifetime inter-regionalmigrants in 1960 is the preferred destination of thePerez71

mobile Visayan (regions VI-VIII) population. There
were more who settled in any one of the tripartite
Mindanao area (regions IX-XI) than in any othersurrounding Visayan island. Percentages of out-migrants
headed for Mindanao before 1960 contrast sharply withthe much less significant flow of inter-regional movement
within the Visayas area composed of Western, Central,and Eastern Visayas. In fact, the percentage distributionof the Visayan migrants, especially those coming from
Western Visayas show preference for the Southern
Tagalog region and the City of Manila than the nearby
Visayan towns.
Percent of migrants fromthe Visayas going to

PeriodBirth-to1960

Ï960-to1970

Percentage
Point
Difference

17.6

27.4

+ 9.8

5.5

8.3

+ 2.8

62.4
10.5

50.2
8.6

-12.2
-1.9

4.4
3.0

11.3
2.7

+ 6.9
-0.3

8.9

10.1

+ 1.2

79.7

69.6

-10.1

23.0
2.4

36.5
2.2

+ 13.5
-0.2

8.2

6.8

-1.4

44.6
18.4

31.7
14.3

-12.9
-4.1

WESTERN VISAYAS
IV. Southern Tagalog
VII & VIII. Central & Eastern
Visayas
IX to XI. Tripartite Mindanao
RegionXII. City of Manila
CENTRAL VISAYAS
IV. Southern Tagalog
V. BicolVI & VIII. Western & Eastern
Visayas
IX to XI. Tripartite Mindanao
RegionEASTERN VISAYAS
IV. Southern Tagalog
V. BicolVI & VII. Western & Central
Visayas
IX to XI. Tripartite Mindanao
RegionXII. City of Manila

SOURCE: 1960 and 1970 Census Migration Tables.

72

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

Another illustrative example is the long-distancemovement made by the Ilocanos;1 Out-migrants fromthe llocos region were found in Southern Luzon and thenearby Cagayan Valley region. Between these twodestination areas, however, there were more migrants
flocking to the farther of the two, Southern Tagalog,
than in the neighboring region, as shown below.
Trend of Movement
Before 1960. It has been documented in past researchand studies that a bulk of the geographic mobility was
induced. An examination of regional net migration rates
underscores the settlement of the frontier areas, mostlyof Mindanao, via government intervention. In reality,
this was a national policy that had for its aim
accelerated growth of the once-neglected region.
V A cultural group originating from the llocos region located in thenorthern tip of the country- well known for their love of adventure.

Percent of Migrants fromthe llocos Going to
II. Cagayan Valley
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Luzon
IX to Xl! Tripartite Mindanao
RegionXII. City of Manila

Birth-to1960

1960-to1970

Percentage
Point
Difference

25.0
15.4
26.2

20.0
14.2
37.1

-5.0
-1.2
+ 10.9

19.2
13.7

15.3
9.7

-3.9
-4.0

SOURCE: 1960 and 1970 Census Migration Tables.

Perez73

Table 2. Rates (percentages) and Rank-Order of In- Migration, Out-migration,
and Net Migration Birth-to-1960, in the Philippines, by Region.«

RegionI. llocos
II. Cagayan Valley
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Tagalog
V. BicolVI. Western VisayasVII. Central Visayas
VIII. Eastern Visayas
IX. Western Mindanao
X. Northern Mindanao
XL Southern Mindanao
XII. City of Manila

InOatNet
Mlgratfon
Migration
Migration
Rates Rank Rales Rank Rates Rank
3.50
15.77
4.09
19.41
3.48
2.27
3.15
1.82
29.30
16.65
37.80
45.44

8
6
7
4
9
11
10
12
3
5
2
1

13.94
6.65
13.83
4.72
8.39
14.26
24.35
13.20
6.87
12.71
4.08
11.25

4
9
5
10
8
3
2
6
11
7
12
1

-11.4410.28-10.7016.70-5.22-13.07-24.58-11.58
30.65
5,61
43.91
18.63

9
5
8
4
7
11
12
10
2
6
1
3

SOURCE: 1960 Census Migration Tables.

The rates particularly present a cancelling of the net
effects of the heavy influx of persons to the City of
Manila. Thus, even if it had the highest volume in termsof in-migration rates, it only ranked third in terms ofnet migration rate. The opposite trend however, stands
true and of comparative advantage to the Mindanao
regions, especially for Southern Mindanao.
The Southern and Western Mindanao regions drew
more settlers than sent migrants elsewhere. Movements
before 1960 were primarily pioneer settlement types.
This is congruent with the idea that agriculturalpotential is a migration-inducing factor. This was thecase for Mindanao's vast lands that were still uninhabited before 1960.
After I960. An outstanding feature of recent socialchange is the relatively rapid development of urban
areas. Corollary to this process is the sustained massive
in-migration to major urban centers. The exodus of
population from rural areas to urban centers has beencommonly viewed as an explanatory variable in thephenomenal growth of city population.

74

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

Attendant to the fast tempo of social change in thedecade of the 60s was the shift of movement from anurban center, exemplified by the City of Manila, to thegeographically contiguous areas within commuting
distance, mostly located in the Southern Tagalog region.
During the 1970 census, there was a general decrease in
the flow of people to Manila accompanied by a
substantial outflow of population from its crowded
districts. There occurred a 44.9 per cent increase in theoutflow of population from the densely inhabited urban
center and a corresponding 16.1 per cent change in the
inflow of population to the "once attractive" central
city.
Table 3. Rates (percentage) and Rank- Order of In-Mlgration, Ont-Migration,
and Net Migration 1960-to-1970, in the Philippines, by Regions

RegionI. llocos
II. Cagayan Valley
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Tagalog
V. BicolVI. Western VisayasVII. Central Visayas
VIII. Eastern Visayas
IX. Western Mindanao
X. Northern Mindanao
XI. Southern Mindanao
XII. City of Manila

IiiNetOnt
Migration
Migration
Migration
Rates Rank
Rates Rank Rates Rank

3.84
5.78
4.88
14.83
3.86
2.27
4.02
2.88
7.84
10.93
14.57
21.66

10
6
7
2
9
12
8
11
5
4
3
1

9.61
4.35
6.88
3.50
7.64
8.73
12.76
11.57
4.82
5.42
4.30
34.07

4
10
7
12
6
5
2
3
9
8
11
1

-6.18
1.50
-2.12
12.47
-4.01
6.83
-9.54
-9.36
3.22
6.00
11.34
-17.20

8
5
6
1
7
9
11
10
4
3
2
12

SOURCE: 1970 Census Migration Tables.

Southern Tagalog region, on the other hand, ranked
second, twelfth, and first in terms of in-out-and net
migration rates during the decade. These rankings are
additional evidence for the accepted and establishedtrend that the City of Manila has been losing population
through out-migration as early as the 50s (Pascual,
1972; Zosa, 1973).

Perez75

Of the total loss of 453,925 persons, Southern
Tagalog received 65.8 per cent representing some
298,708 persons. Of this number, 78.16 per cent were to
be found in the urban sector of the region, while 20.81
per cent were residing in the rural sector of the region(Perez, 1975).
These data indicate the spread of progress to theperiphery of the fast developing and expanding Metropolitan Manila Area. Meeting the ever increasing
demands of the population for urban services andfacilities has resulted in a thinning out of green land
within the region.
Stream Effectiveness

It is often desirable to calculate indices that permit
comparisons of migratory flows. One such measurement
is the Index of Effectiveness which relates net migration
to turnover.
In an analysis of inter-regional migration from census
data, Smith (1975) observed that flows before 1960 werecharacterized by a fair degree of effectiveness whereasflows in the 1960s tended to cross-cancel and are
therefore, of lower effectiveness. Several indicators of overoverall effectiveness were calculated, as shown in thefollowing page.
The 12-region system frame indicates that 12.8 percent of the population changed region between birth and1960 with a net displacement effect (measured by theindex of dissimilarity) of 7.9 per cent. Index of
Effectiveness was at a high of 63. In the 1960s, 8.3 percent of all persons, 10 years old and over, changed
region of residence yet the net displacement generated
by such transfers was only 3.8 per cent. Inter-regionalmigration during the decade yielded a comparatively low
stream effectiveness of 46. A similar pattern was
likewise observed for the three-broad region system.

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

76

Birth to 1960

1960 to 1970
(Pop 10 + )

12.8
7.9
63.0
1.62

8.3
3.8
46.0
2.18

6.4
5.2
82.0
1.23

3.7
2.2
59.0
1.68

Twelve region system
2. Per cent changing region
2. Index of Displacement a
3. Index of Effectiveness b
4. Index of Exchange Migration c
Three broad regions
1. Per cent changing regions
2. Index of Displacement »3. Index of Effectiveness b
4. Index of Exchange Migration caThis is the Index of Dissimilarity comparing distributions across areas of
population by residence at two points in time
net in-migrants

x 100

b|ndex of Effectiveness =Total inter-area migrants
per cent changing regionclndex of Exchange =Index of Displacement

The high stream effectiveness that characterized thepre-1960 flows reinforces the dominance of long
distance movements in an era of pioneer settlement.
The following table reveals that the stream effectivenessis reduced greatly by the distance involved in the
movement.
Table 4. Index of Effectiveness of Selected Migration Streams Before andAfter 1960
Before 1960

After 1960

Long-Distance Movements
Western Visayas (VI)to Southern Mindanao (XI)
Central Visayas (VII)to Southern Mindanao (XI)

990

960

971

941

Short-Distance Movements
Northern Mindanao (X)Southern Mindanao (XI)

383

316

Central Visayas (VII)Western to Visayas (VI)

298

138

Perez11

Clearly, migration flows after 1960 reflect the negative
effect of stream-counterstream ratio on stream effectiveness. The ratio of stream to counterstream linking
Regions VI and XI, for instance, declined from 200 to 1
(birth-to-1960) to 12:1 (1960-to-1970). For short-distancemovements like the interchange of population within the
Visayan group of islands, the ratio is much less lopsided
because of the cancelling effect of the substantial
counterflow, as indicated by the stream-counterstream
ratio of 2:1 in 1960 and equality in 1970.
In a separate analysis of inter-regional migration using
data from the National Demographic Survey of 1973
(Pernia, 1976), a more detailed analysis of stream
effectiveness was presented. The origins and destinationsof the flows were taken into account. It was found thatrural-to-metropolitan streams were by far more effective
than rural-to-urban streams. Both flows were female
dominant after 1965 when differentiated by sex.
Table 5. Index of Effectiveness of Migration Streams Birth to-1965 and1965-to-1973, By Sex and Type of Migration Flow.
Type of Migration
Flow and Sex

Migration Interval
Birth-to-1965

1965-to-1973

Difference

517
509
252

394
322
447

-123
-187
M95

777
777
776

491
397
554

-286
-380
-222

Rural-to-Urban
Both Sexes
Males
Females
Rural-to-Metropolitan aBoth Sexes
Males
Females

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey Migration Tables.
Metropolitan is a close approximation of the National Economic Development Authority's (NEDA) definition of Manila Metropolitan Area which
includes the cities of Manila, Caloocan, Pasay and Quezon, the suburban
municipalities of Makati, Mandaluyong, Navotas, San Juan, Marikina,
Malabon, Parañaque, Pasig, and Taguig located in the province of Rizal;
and the municipality of Valenzuela in Bulacan province. This definition is
now in current use in a research consortium "Population, Resources,
Environment, and the Philippine Future " (PREPF).

78

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

Overall, there was a reduction of stream effectivenessafter 1965 which may be interpreted thus: thatdevelopments since the 60s induced greater propensities
for return movement; a second view may be thatdevelopments in transportation and communication
increased favorable circumstances for return movement,
as suggested by Lewis (1971) and Simkins and Wernstedt(1971). Still a third view may be postulated withparticular reference to the 2.9 percentage points gain of
the Metropolitan to rural flow after 1965 (see Table 7 ).
It may be that the increasing housing density in thealready overcrowded metropolitan center stimulated
substantial return movement. Viewed in the light ofsome "dispersal" policies implemented thus far, it could
mean the relocation or establishment of industrial
concerns outside but within commutable distance fromthe metropolitan area.
The underlying sociological significance of these
population movements is open for exploration andfurther study.
Internal Migration and Development

There are at least two ways by which the course of thecountry's growth and development is affected by thevolume and direction of migratory movements. These
two processes—stemming partly from spatial mobility—
are, the suppuration of the frontier settlement and, theaccentuated tempo of urbanization, a vehicle of economictransformation. While the former ends the era of an
agriculturally based "pioneer settlement," the latter
begins the era of an industrially based "urban trek."
Within the context of the commonly acceptedrural-urban dichotomy, the National Demographic
Survey of 1973 provides an overview of the rural/urban
patterns of internal migration in the country.
A graphic presentation of the types of migration

79

Perez

streams before and after 1965 is contained in Figure 5.
The working .definition of rural-urban1 used during thesurvey is a variant of the established census definition.
It elevated the level of national urbanization in 1970 to
39.1 per cent, a level 6.2 and 7.3 per cent higher than
the 1963 and 1970 census level of national urbanization.
As gleaned from special tabulations ( Table 7 )pre-1965 movers were more conservative2 than innovative.3 A slightly larger proportion—32.6 per cent—of
the pre-1965 movers with rural origins were headed foranother rural area. Only 29.9 per cent moved into urban
areas as revealed in Figure 5. This observation reflects
the preponderance of males in the pioneering kind of
migration streams. A sharp contrast in the age-specificsex ratios recorded in the accompanying table isobtained for the conservative and innovative movers.
Table 6- Age Specific Sex Ratios by Typ« of Stream for Lifetime Migrants,
Birth-to-1965
Age Group

Type of Migration
Stream

15-24

25-34

35^»9

5 0 •*

Total

Rural-to Rural
Rural-to-Urban
Rural-io-Meiro Manila

106.7
73.5
90.3

100.7
98.0
73.9

97.5
83.1
92.8

148.8
106.2
129.2

110.4
89.5
95.7

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey Migration Tables.

The large differences in the age-specific sex ratios
identify a differential in the structure of employment
opportunities between urban and rural destinations.
'The survey considered the areal sub-units of Metropolitan Manila, chartered cities, and all poblaciones as urban; all barrios were treated ascomponents of the rural area.
Conservative migration refers to mobility which involves movement within
the traditional or within the modern sector, and movement from themodern to the traditional sector.
Innovative migration is that spatial mobility involving movement from thetraditional (rural) sector to the modern (urban) sector with goals ofachieving the new.

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

80

With the proliferation of service industries in the urban,
areas, especially in the Metropolitan Manila Area, theresultant sex ratio for the age group 25-34 is particularly
low.
The more recent flows, however, present evidence
counter to the earlier frontier settlement. During theperiod 1965-73, rural-to-urban migrants were the mostsignificant in volume. One-fourth of the total streams
were of this type, as shown in Table 7,
Table 7. Percentage Distribution and Rank-Order of Migration Streams for
two Intervals: Lifetime, Birth-to-1965 and Period, 1965-ÍO-1973

Birth-to1965

Conservative
Rural-Rural
Urban-Rural
Manila-Rural
Urban-Urban

49.9
32.6
9.5
1.7
6.1

Innovative

50.1

Type of Stream

Rural-Urban
Rural-Manila aurban-Manila

29.9
13.6
6.6

Rank

1965-to1973

Rank

Percentage
Point
Difference

1
4
7
6

44.0
19.7
11.2
4.6
8.5

2
5
7
6

-5.9
-12.9
1.7
2.9
2.4

1
4
3

5.8
-4.2
-0.1
10.1

55.9
2
3
5

25.7
13.5
16.7

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey Migration Tables¿Manila here refers to the PREPF definition of Metropolitan Manila area, as
explained in Table 5.

Concomitant with preceding observations, periodmigration streams were more innovative than conservative. A significant 55.9 per cent of the total streams in1973 involved one of two destinations—urban orMetropolitan Manila. This change in direction of
migratory flows conforms to Zelinsky's (1971) structuraland spatial mobility transition which states that there isan upward mobility, i.e. innovative movement, as
development processes like urbanization, modernization,or industrialization are taking place. This upward
mobility partially results from the rising socio-economic
aspirations which accompany development.

81

Perez

The percentage share of rural-urban migratory flows
decreased in volume but remained a majority bulk of
the total flows. An interesting trend during the period
1965-73 elucidates the argument regarding the emergenceof an inter-urban system of movement from which asystem of urban centers through migration may begenerated. Attention should be drawn to the fact thatdevelopment of better transportation and communication
facilities established linkage of smaller urban areas
contiguous to the urban center. For instance, thepercentage share of urban-Metro Manila flow was twice
larger than the inter-urban (excluding Metro Manila) in
1973 (Table 7).
Apparently, the urban-Metro Manila streams weremore female-dominant. Sex ratios of urban-urban
streams were even higher. But sex ratios for rural-urban
migrants still remain the lowest, as attested by Table 8.
Table 8. Age-specific Sex Ratios of Migration Streams for Period Migrants,
1965-to-1973
Age Group

Type of Migration
StreamRural-urban
Urban-urban
Urban-Metro Manila

15-24

25-34

35-49

50+

Total

45.2
51.7
65.0

79.7
94.7
82.3

94.1
117.3
91.4

117.2
132.9
94.0

67.1
84.2
78.1

SOURCE: 1973 National Demographic Survey Migration Tables.

The terms "rural-urban," "urban-urban, " or "urbanmetropolitan" migration usually connote development.
Indeed, the direction of migratory flows focuses on thephenomenon of distressed areas, and underscores theurban trek, which to most migrants often proves to beeconomically rewarding and personally gratifying.

82

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

Though it may be a case of oversimplifying thephenomenon, the analysis of population movement
between and among "richer" (more developed) and"poorer" (less developed) regions in the Philippines
underlines the distinctively integral function of internalmigration to development. In a study of migration,using Philippine census data, Zachariah (1975) pointed
out the inverse relationship between migration and levelof economic development and the higher level of spatial
mobility among the more developed regions as measured
by the volume of migration. Using data on Family
Income Expenditures in 1971, the regions were classified
as "poor" (less developed) and "rich" (more developed).1
For present purposes, movements may either beinter-movement or intra-movement,2 confined to theexchange of population between and among the regions
as classified. Data presented in Table C indicate thefollowing:• Of the total movements in 1960, 48.7 per centaccounted for transfers between the LDRs and the
MDRs while 51.3 per cent were movements within the
LDRs and the MDRs;• A higher level of mobility within the MDRs, as it
accounted for 90.9 per cent of total intra-movements;and• A greater interchange of population from the LDRs
to the MDRs. This flow amounted to 85.0 per cent of
total inter-movements. The counter stream was six times
smaller in size and volume.
1"Poor" or "less" developed regions (LDR) are those with annual family
income of less than P2,000; "rich" or "more developed regions" (MDR) arethose with annual family income above P2,000.
o"Inter-movement" refers to population transfers between an MDR andan LDR, while "intra-movement" refers to population transfers within an
LDR or an MDR.

Perez83

The same trend is obtained during the period 1960-70.
As was true before 1960, the more dominant stream was
the outflow from the LDRs to the MDRs. Roughly, theratio was three streams to an MDR to every stream
flowing to an LDR. With regard to intra-movements, ahigher level of mobility was still pronounced for the
MDRs. While movement between LDRs was only 7.4
per cent, migration between MDRs soared to 92.6 per
cent.
Overall, the data yield the following general observations descriptive of the direction of migratory flows in
the Philippines:• A concentration of in-migrants among the moredeveloped regions and a corresponding massive outflow
of people from the less developed regions;• A higher level of mobility among the moredeveloped regions; and• A more significant exchange of population, in termsof volume, between the more developed regions. All
these are characteristics of developing nations.
The last observation is of particular interest to
researchers devoted to urban structure in relation tomobility between the more developed regions. Definitely, there exist strong links between the two processes,
which to some extent, determine whether or not such
mobility promotes the interests of the economy. Moreso, because these processes are basic to a properly
grounded perspective of future regional development.
Conclusion
As a whole, the various data presented herein indicate
substantial spatial mobility in the Philippines. The
volume and direction of migratory movements bespeaksocio-economic changes concomitant to national
development. And the evaluation of these changes
entails knowledge and perception of population redistribution as it has proven to be a matter of consequence.

84

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

The implications of such observed trends are addressedto policy-makers as well as planners in relation tosignificant aspects such as the effect of population
movements on the shape of urban growth; the meaningof migration from the "less developed" regions to the"more developed" regions on regional policy; and thegenerated cost-benefits of movement among the individuals who move on one hand and those who elect tostay, on the other.
The broad policy issue, however, is not whether
geographic mobility of the country's population should
be encouraged or discouraged, but rather how its
effectiveness can be strengthened and its adverse effects
both at origin and destination be reduced to theminimum.
Table A. Population, Land Area and Density or the Philippin es by Region -.Censal Years 1960 and 1970
Population
Region1950

I. Hocos
II. Cagayan Valley
III. Central Luzon
IV. Southern Tagalog
V. Bicol Region
VI. Western VisayasVII. Cental Visayas
VIII. Eastern Visayas
IX. Western Visayas
X. Northern Mindanao
Xf. Southern Mindanao
Total, All Regions

1970

Per Cent
Distribution
1960

1970

1,303,437
1,604,418 4.81
1,202,066
1,691,459 4.44
3,690,996
5,100,095 13.63
8,325,247 20.31
5,502,240
2,362,707
2,966,881 8.72
3,618,326 11.36
3,078,305
2,522,802
3,032,719 9.31
2,040,966
2,381,409 7.53
1,350,731
1,869,014 4.99
2,111,291 3,016,865 7.79
1,922,142 3,078,053 7.10
27,087,685 36,684,486 99.99

4.37
4.61
13.90
22.69
8.09
9.86
8.27
6.49
5.10
8.22
8.39
99.99

InterCensal
GrowthRale (%)
2.05
3.40
3.22
4.14
2.25
1.59
1.82
1.52
3.23
3.55
4.72
3.01

Und
Area
(Insq.
km.)

Density
196«

1970

16,200.3
80.46
36,403.1
33.02
23,646.0 156.09
47,513.1 115.80
17,632.5 134.00
20,223.2 152.22
14,951.5 168.73
21,431.7 95.23
18,685.1 72.29
39,844.9 52.99
43,468.0 44.22
300,000.0 90.29

99.04
46.46
215.69175.22168.26178.92202.84111.12100.0375.72
70.81
122.28SOURCE: Bureau oftheCensusand Statistics, Special Report No. 3,1972.

Perez

85

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CD
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I

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SB

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POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

86

Table C. Lifetime and Period Migration Between litas Developed and More Developed
Regions in the Philippines: Birth-to-1960 and 196O-IO-1970
1960
Region1960-1970

Number Per Cent Per Cent Number Per Cenl Per Cent
OUT-MIGRATIONLESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
Total inter-regional movements for all LDR's
From LDR's to MDR's
Between LDR's
MORE DEVELOPED REGIONS
Total inter-regional movements for all MDR's
From MDR's to LDR's
Between MDR's
TOTAL OUT-MIGRATIONTOTAL INTER-MOVEMENTS *TOTAL 1NTRA-MOVEMENTS
LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
Total inter-regional movements for all LDR's
From LDR's to MDR's
Between LDR's
MORE DEVELOPED REGIONS
Total inter-regional movements for all MDR's
From MDR's to LDR's
Between MDR's
TOTAL IN-MIGRATIONTOTAL INTER-MOVEMENTSTOTAL INTRA-MOVEMENTS

1,589,385
1,428,017
161,368

46.05
85.02
9.11

1,862,358 53.95
251,562
14.98
1,610,796 90.89
3,451,743 100.00
1,679,579 100.00
1,772,164 100.00

39.42
76.01
7.43

100.0089.94
10.06,267,184 60.58
100.0013.51
234,035 23.99,033,149 92.57
86.49
100.00 ;.,091,603 100.00
48.66
975,480 100.00
51.34,116,123 100.00

100.0018.47
81.53
100.0046.64
53.36

100.0089.85
10.15

824,419
741,445
82,974

IN-MIGRATION
412,930
251,562
161,368

11.96
14.98
9.11

3,038,813 88.04
1,428,017 85.02
1,610,796 90.89
3,451,743 100.00
1,679,579 100.00
1,772,164 100.00

15.16
23.99
7.43

100.0073.83
26.17

100.00 ,774,594 84.84
46.99
741,445 76.01
53.01 1 ,033,149 92.57
100.00 2,091,603 100.00
48.66
975,480 100.00
51.34 1 ,116,123 100.00

100.0041.78
58.22
100.0046.64
53.36

100.0060.92
39.08

317.009
234,035
82,974

NOTE: a-refers to population transfers from an LDR to an MDR
b-refers to population transfers between LDRs or between MDRs.
SOURCES: Bureau of the Census and Statistics, Housing and Population
Census, 1970; Bureau of the Census and Statistics, Annex
Table on Migration, Housing and Population Census, 1960.

Perez87

Figure 1.
Density Mapof the Philippines
By Regions

88

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTION

09

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2

s

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Ul

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Ul

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mm

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111

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0-14

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15-64

ALL
AGES

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89

Perez

/ * \

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LESEND:IN MIORATIONOUT MIGRATION

Figure 3. Volume of Lifetime Migration, Birth-to-1960
in Philippine Regions: 1960 Census

90

POPULA TION DISTRIBUTIONLEGEND !
IN MIORATIONOUT MIGRATION

Figure 4. Volume of Period Migration, 1960-to-1970 in
Philippine Regions: 1970 Census

91

Perez

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92

POPULATION

DISTRIBUTIONREFERENCES
Lewis, Henry T. Ilocano Rice Farmers: A Comparative
Study of Two Philippine Barrios. Honolulu, University of Hawaii Press, 1971.
Pascual, Elvira M. "Urbanization in the Philippines."
Paper submitted at the SEADAG Population Seminaron Urban Focus. Pattaya, Thailand, 1972.
Perez, Aurora E. "Internal Migration in the Philippines." Paper submitted to Organization of Demographic Associates, East and Southeast Asia, for the
Integrated Manuscripts on Internal Migration and
Urbanization Country Report, 1975.
Pernia, Ernesto M. "Indicators of Philippine Urbanization in the 20th Century." PREPF Research Note
No. 3, University of the Philippines Population
Institute. Manila, 1975.
"Philippine Migration Streams:
Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics."
PREPF Research Note No. 11, University of thePhilippines Population Institute. Manila, 1975.
Simkins, Paul D. and Wernstedt, Frederic L. "Philippine Migration: The Settlement of the Digos-Padada
Valley, Davao Province." Monograph Series No. 16.
Yale University Southeast Asia Studies, 1971.
Smith, Peter C. "Interregional Migration: Lifetime and1960-1970: Magnitudes of Total Streams". PREPF
Research Note No. 3Í, University of the Philippines
Population Institute. Manila, 1975.
Zachariach, K.C. "Migration in the Philippines with
Particular Reference to Less Developed Regions of theCountry". (Mimeograph). Prepared for the World
Bank, 1975.

Perez.

93

Zelinsky, Wilbur. "The Hypothesis of the Mobility
Transitions." Geographical Review, 61, 2 April, 196).
Zosa, Imelda A. "A Multivariate Analysis of Migration
Flows in the Philippines." Paper presented at the 3rdWorkshop of Organization of Demographic Associates
Manila, 1973.

LABOR FORCEIMELDA A. ZOSAPHILIPPINE labor

force statistics can be obtained fromtwo main sources: censuses conducted since I9601 andregular household surveys begun in 1956. This discussion
makes use of census results from 1960 and 1970 only.2
Although some enumeration procedures varied, basic
definitions used in these two censuses are similar. Using
as reference period the week before enumeration, allpersons 10 years old and over were categorizedaccording to labor force status. Those categorized as
employed and unemployed were members of the labor
force while housekeepers, students, the disabled and theretired were non-labor force members.
Persons working for wages, salaries, profits orcommissions, as well as without pay in a family or farm
enterprise, constituted the employed. However, thisgroup also included those with jobs but not working
either because they were temporarily absent or on leave,or still due to report for a definite assignment or work.
Classified mainly as unemployed were those not working
but wanting and looking for work. Those not working
and not looking for work but indicating the desire for
employment were also grouped among the unemployed.
1

2

Earlier censuses utilized the "usual occupation" approach. Please refer tothe 1939 and 1948 publications listed at the end of the text.

The 1960 and 1970 data used in the discussion are taken from the corres ponding census volumes.

95

96

LABOR FORCE

Size of the Labor Force

Data from the 1960 census show that about 31.5 percent of all persons in the country were categorized aslabor force members (Table 1). The proportion for
1970 was slightly higher (33.5 per cent). The number inthe labor force actually swelled from 8,536,000 in 1960
to 12,300,435 in 1970. This increment of nearly
4,000,000 workers indicated a decadal change of about
44.1 per cent, a level slightly higher than the 35.4 percent change of the total population.
Table 1. Population and Labor Force in 1960 and 1970

Year

Total
Population(1)

Population
Activity Rates
RefinedPopulation
10 Years
10 Years and Over in
Dependency
and Over Labor Force Crude Refined
Ratio
(2)
(3)
(3)-(l) (3) -K2) (1-3)-(3)

1960
1970

27,087,685
36,684,486

17,873,060
25,122,640

8,536,000
12,300,435

31.5
33.5

47.8
49.0

•217
198

These increases in the labor force have to beinterpreted in the light of varied dates when these two
censuses were taken. While the 1960 census was taken in
February, the latter was conducted in May, a summer
month when possibly a number of youngsters onvacation entered the labor force.
With the increase in the proportion of labor force
members in the Philippine population, the dependency
ratio also declined. In 1960, every 100 workers
supported 217 dependents. The 'dependent' populationis composed of the very young and the old as well as
non-labor force members from ages 10 and above. With
increased labor force participation in 1970, the burden
decreased to 198.
As a proportion of those 10 years old and above,
those in the labor force made up nearly half of this

Zosa

97

sub-population in 1970 and slightly less in 1960 (about
47.8 per cent). This change has to be studied relative tochanges occurring in the age-sex composition of thelabor force.
The Labor Force by Sex and Age

The male labor force numbered nearly 6.4 million in1960 and 8.4 million in 1970. Females in the labor force
comprised a considerably smaller number with 2.2
million in 1960 and over 3.9 million in the latter year
(Table 2). Converted into labor force sex ratios, forevery 100 female workers in 1960 there were 291 maleworkers. The 1970 ratio dropped to 213, implying either
an increase in female participation, a decrease among
male workers or both patterns occurring simultaneously.
Actually, over two-thirds of the total male population
10 and over in both years were members of the labor
force. However, the proportion declined in 1970 from71.1 per cent to 68.1 per cent. The reverse can be notedamong females.
Table 2. Male and Female Labor Force Participation
Sex andYear

Total
Population

Population
10 +Labor Force
Population
10 +

Crude

RefinedActivity Rates

Males
1960
1970

13,662,869
18,250,351

8,931,180
12,287,332

6,352,420
8,370,760

46.5
45.9

71.1
68.1

Females
1960
1970

13,424,816
18,434,135

8,941,880
12,835,308

2,183,580
3,929,675

16.3
21.3

24.4
30.6

98

LABOR FORCE

The graph on age-sex labor force participation rates
shows in detail this trend (Figure 1). Male rates by age
group followed the universal pattern for both years.
Participation rates start at low levels in the younger
ages, increase rapidly in the 20s, reach their peak at ages
30-49 with rates exceeding 90 per cent, and decline
slowly in the subsequent ages. However, declines inparticipation rates occurred for almost all ages in 1970.
The only exception is the first age group, an effect ofentry or increased participation of the young during
vacation time.
Unlike those for males, female participation rates do
not follow a defined pattern. In 1960, the highest levels ofparticipation can be found among females 15-24 andaround 45 years of age while lower rates can be notedamong those aged 25-39. These initial findings suggest aclose relationship between marital and maternal status
and labor force participation in 1960. However, thepattern may have changed in 1970. As anticipated, thepattern of gradually increasing participation could be
noted for those in the first age groups. However, thepeak ages of participation had shifted to the middle agegroups especially within and around the age group40-44. In addition to such shifts, increased participation
occurred in all age groups except among females 65 andover. While still being much lower than the rates formales, the pattern of female participation rates in 1970
somewhat resembled the prevailing age pattern formales.
This difference in age-sex composition of the labor
force in the 1960-1970 period can be summarized asfollows: as expected, males comprised the majority inthe labor force although it appears that there isdecreasing male labor force participation. Female labor
force participation appears to have increased, mostnotably in the last census, although it was still
significantly much lower than the level for males.

Zosa

99
Flgure 1. Atc-Spcdflc Labor Force PirUdpaUon Rates
1960 and 1970

100-1

90-

80-

70-

¡i
S

50-

400)
Q.

30-

20-

10-

«^

&\

T

T

t

^

?

r

9\

-^

O*

^

? 7 ' ? T T

O\

T f C T » ^

+

"î

«

"

Í

Age

Urban-Rural Labor Force
Participation Rates in 1970

In 1970, both urban and rural areas manifested
age-sex participation patterns relatively similar to levels
prevailing for the country as a whole: low proportions
were economically active in the youngest and oldest ages
while peak participation occurred within the late 30s andearly 40s (Figure 2).
1

Due to differences in the definition of "urban" in 1960 and 1970 only the1970 figures are given.

LABOR FORCE

100

Compared to urban males, males in rural areas
appeared to have higher rates of participation for almost
all ages. The greatest differences occurred especiallyamong those in the youngest age group (10-19) andamong those 65 and over. The only exceptions were
urban males aged 40-44 with their participation rate of
90 per cent registering the highest level of economic
activity among all groups in the male population.
HGURE 2 . Age -Specific Labor Force Participation
Rales of Urban and Rural Areas
1970

100-,

90-

80-

70a>
u

"-

RURAL

60-

I

MALES

5
IB

50-

URBAN

s¿

0)
Q-

30-

20-

\ t ) RURALFEMALES
URBAN

10-

à

û à .s
Age

Zosa

101

A divergent pattern occurred in each locale amongfemales. Economic participation of urban females
belonging to the broad age group, 15-54, notably
exceeded participation of rural women within the sameages. It appears that the urban milieu may offer more
"plus" factors, making it easier for more women tojoin the labor force. In contrast, rural females who
belonged to extreme age groups tended to be more
economically active than their urban counterparts. This
was noted even for males. The very young and theelderly, regardless of sex considerations, may findeconomic participation in the rural communities easierthan in an urban context.
Employment Status in 1960 and 1970

Of the total 8,536,000 labor force members in 1960,
7,944,450 were estimated as either employed for wages
or salaries, working for profits or commissions, orparticipating as unpaid family workers. The number
categorized as employed rose to 11,358,326 in 1970,
representing an increase of about 43.0 per cent (Table3). Viewed as proportions of the labor force, theemployed comprised 93.1 per cent in 1960 and 92.3 percent in 1970, signifying a decrease in shares despite theincrease in actual numbers.
The employed in the male labor force numberedalmost 6,000,000 in 1960 and 10 years later, 7,893,260.
The increment amounted to nearly 2,000,000, although
the number of employed males grew by 31.8 per cent.
The percentage increase in the number of employed
females was much more substantial. From 1,954,320
employed females in the earlier year, the number swelled
to 3,465,066 in 1970. While the increment amounted to
1,510,746, the implied increase in the number employed
was 77.3 per cent, a growth much larger than that formales.
Despite the considerable increase in the number

102

LABOR

FORCE

employed among females, the female employment rate
declined slightly from 89.5 per cent in 1960 to 88.2 percent in the latter census year. A comparison with rates
for males reveals that female employment rates werealways lower than those for males, and, unlike those forfemales, male employment rates did not change acrossthe years.
Table 3. The Labor Force 10 Years Old and Over Who Were Employed andUnemployed, 1960-1970
Sex andEmnlovment
Status1960

BOTH SEXES
Employed
Unemployed
MALES
Employed
Unemployed
FEMALES
Employed
Unemployed

8,536,000
7,944,456
591,550
6,352,420
5,990,130
362,290
2,183,580
1,954,320
229,260

Sex andEmployment
Status
BOTH SEXES
Employed
Unemployed
MALES
Employed
Unemployed
FEMALES
Employed
Unemployed1970

Difference
Between1960 & 1970

Per Cent
Increase

12,300,435
11,358,326
942,1098,370,760
7,893,260
477,500
3,929,675
3,465,066
464,6093,764,435
3,413,876
350,559
2,018,340
1,903,130
115,210
1,746,095
1,510,746
235,349

44.1
43.0
59:3
31.8
31.8
31.8
80.0
77.3
102.7

Labor Force (N)Labor F irce (Vo)Difference

1960

1970

1960 & 1970

Per cent
Increase

93.1
6.9

92.3
7.7

-.8
+ .8

-86.9
11.6

94.3
5.7

94.3
5.7

.0
.0

.0
.0

89.5
10.5

88.2
11.8

-1.3
1.3

12.4
12.4

The remaining portion of the labor force is made upof the unemployed. From 1960 to the summer of 1970,the unemployed rose by over 350,559, a numerical
growth relatively higher than the growth among those
employed. This can be noted as a phenomenon that
affects females more acutely. Females who were
unemployed as of 1970 were 102.7 per cent more than

Zosa

103

those unemployed in 1960, a stark contrast to a figureof 31.8 per cent for males. Further compounding the
problem is the relatively higher unemployment rate forfemales. Male unemployment rates in 1960 and 1970
did not exceed six per cent and appeared to have been
relatively unchanged across the years. Those for females
exceeded 10 per cent, with the 1970 rates surpassing
the 1960 level by about 12.4 per cent.
The problem of unemployment in 1970 can be better
observed if one looks at how it affects definite groups inthe population. The rural and urban labor force
displayed equal rates of unemployment although thenotably high rates among females persist in both areas.
On the whole, rural males had the lowest level of
unemployment, 5.3 per cent, compared to urban males
or to females of both sectors. However, it appears thatfemale labor force members are disadvantaged in therural areas; the over-all rate of unemployment is 13.3 percent (Figure 3).
Other disadvantaged groups are the young and theelderly, although sex-areal differentials and time modified observations. The young displayed the highest ratesof unemployment for each sex and locale. This can be
expected considering the particular period that the 1970
census was taken. Among those aged 10-24, rural
females had the highest rate (16.7 per cent) while urban
males and females had slightly lower levels.
Trend in the Industrial Structure

About two-thirds of the 7,944,450 employed workers
in 1960 belong to the agricultural sector. A shift toward
non-agricultural activities appears to have occurred, andin 1970 the proportion of workers in agriculture declined
to slightly over one-half of the total employed (Table 4).

LABOR FORCE

104

•fí.3

=

3 * S

o

o

S

S "> Sf

=3

s # a

•*

»

? P3 ^ q S
5
5 * 2
•o

+

5

S «

*

a

•»

£

2 2 £

^

S3

SS
S

1-5
3 J? »ii« 3 a

5

•*

5

á

H * M
f-i t-; •«•

<s

la

m

a

I

s S |

S

s a S

!§ < 3 *

S

S

=

M -

Zosa

105

However, it should be noted that agriculture persists as
the major industry of most workers even as late as 1970.
Table 4. Trends in Industry of the Employed Labor Force, Philippines, 1960-1970
NumberIndustry
Total
1. Agriculture, Hunting,Forestry & Fishing
2. Mining & Quarrying
3. Manufacturing
4. Electricity, gas, water,& sanitary services
5. Construction
6. Commerce
7. Transportation, Communication& Storage
8. Services
9. Industries not adequately
described(1) Agriculture(2-8) Non-Agriculture

1960

Per Cent

1970

Per Cent
1960 1970 Change

7,944,450

11,358,326 100.0 100.0—

5,162,060
23,610837,710

6,099,866
51,203
1,353,878

65.0
0.3
10.5

53.7
0.4
11.9

-17.4
50.0
13.1

12,770177,030
505,690

32,907438,242
838,461

0.2
2.2
6.4

0.3
3.9
7.4

81.2
73.1
15.9

201,210911,050

497,874
1,861,667

2.5
11.5

4.4
16.4

73.1
42.9

113,320

184,228

1.4

1.6

14.0

6,099,866
5,074,232

65.0
33.6

53.7
44.7

-17.4
33.0

5,162,060
2,669,070

For both years, two sectors—services and manufacturingranked as the country's predominant industries next toagriculture. Service industries, with their generally
marginal character and loosely structured entry requirements, registered the highest increase in proportion
employed among the three major industries of thePhilippines.
The slowest growth in employment occurred in the
manufacturing sector. Notwithstanding the pace, thetotal number of manufacturing workers reached 1,353,
878 in 1970. The change in the commercial industry, thefourth largest sector, resembled the change in manufacturing. On the other hand, the remaining industries
employed lower proportions of workers across the years,
but registered substantial increases during the decade.
Taking males and females separately, the largest
group of workers employed in specific industries in the
1960-70 period were found in agriculture, although thetrend of decline in agricultural employment held true for

LABOR FORCE

106

each sex (see Tables 5 and 6). Among males, only this
sector registered negative change in relative proportion
to total employment. The proportions in the larger
industries like the commercial, manufacturing andservice sectors appeared to have increased although theseincreases could not match the more ample increases in
employment in the smaller sectors like transportationand communication.
Table 5. Trends in Industry Groups of the Employed Male Labor Force,
1960-1970

Industry
Total
1. Agriculture, hunting,Forestry & fishing
2. Mining & quarrying
3. Manufacturing
4: Electricity, gas, water& sanitary services
5. Construction
6. Commerce
7. Transportation, communication& storage
8. Services
9. Industries not adequately
describedU) Agriculture(2-8) Non-agriculture

Number1960

1970

Per Cent
1960 1970

Per Cent
Change5,990,130 7,893,260 100.0 100.0
4,396,960 4,929,510
22,63048,599385,810 620,799

73.4
0.4
6.4

62.4
0.6
7.9

-14.9
63.2
22.0

11,870174,980
263,150

31,569435,010379,659

0.2
2.9
4.4

0.4
5.5
4.8

95.2
88.7
9.6

197,250445,070487,064
823,497

3.3
7.4

6.2
10.4

87.5
40.4

1.5
1.7
73.4 62.4
25.5 35.8

13.0
-14.9
43.0

92,410 137,553
4-,396,96P 4,929,510
1,500,760 2,826,197

Aside from decreased agricultural employment the
proportion of females in manufacturing had also gone
down. Among the industries that employed relatively
large proportions of females, only the service andcommercial sectors increased. Even these increases
appeared to be moderate, if compared to those formales.
The more striking difference in industrial employment
between males and females can be observed if industries
would be broadly grouped into two: agricultural andnon-agricultural (see lower portion of Tables 5 and 6).
Females were predominantly non-agricultural workers;

Zosa

107

the proportions for 1960 and 1970 were 59.8 and 64.9
per cent, respectively. Males were mainly agricultural
workers with 73.4 and 62.4 per cent noted for therespective years under discussion. Despite such disparities,
the decline in agricultural employment among males was
slightly higher compared to that for females. Correspondingly, male employment in non-agricultural work
has increased more substantially.
Table 6. Trends in Industry Group s of the Employed Female Labor Force,
1960-1970

Industry
Total
1. Agriculture, hunting,Forestry & fishing,
2. Mining & quarrying
3. Manufacturing
4. Electricity, gas, water& sanitary services
5. Construction
6. Commerce
7. Transportation, communication& storage
8. Services
9. Industries not adequately
described(1)
Agriculture(2-8) Non-agricultureaNumber1960

1970

Per Cent
1960

1970

Per Cent
Change"1,954,320 3,465,066 100.0 100.0
765,100 1,170,356
980
2,604
451,900
733,079

39.2
0.0
23.1

33.8
0.1
21.2

-13.7
60.0
-8.5

900
2,050
242,540

1,338
3,232
458,802

0.1
0.1
12.4

0.0
0.1
13.2

-20.0
18.2
6.7

3,960
10,810465,980 1,038,170

0.2
23.8

0.3
30.0

50.0
25.7

20,91046,675765,100 1,170,356
1,168,310 2,248,035

1.1
39.2
59.8

1.4
33.8
64.9

26.2
-13.7
8.5

Figures were taken from unrounded values for 1960 and 1970.

Trends in Occupational Structure

Accompanying the shifts in industrial structure aresimilar changes occurring in the specific types ofactivities done by workers (Table 7). Farmers, comprising the largest segment of workers for both years,
decreased from 65.6 to 53.0 per cent of the total
employed for both years.
Among all non-farm workers, the largest proportion
employed in the 1960-1970 period were craftsmen,

LABOR FORCE

108

service and sales workers. However, these groups did
not increase considerably. Of all blue-collar workers,
only transportation and communication workers attainedlarge increases in employment.
The entire blue-collar group expanded by 35.6 percent. This figure was lower compared to the 44.3 percent growth among white-collar workers brought about
by positive changes for each constituent major occupational category, more significantly among professionals.
Table 7. Trends in Occupation of the Employed Labor Force, Philippines,
1960-1970

Occupation
Total
1. Professional, technical andrelated Workers
2 Administrative, executive andmanagerial workers
3. Clerical workers
4. Sales workers
5. Farmers, fishermen, hunters,
loggers, & related workers
6. Miners, quarrymen, andrelated workes
7 Workers in transport & comm.
8. Craftsmen, production, process
workers, & laborers, NEC
9. Service, sports & related'workers
10. Stevedores & related freight
handlers & laborers, NEC
11. Occupation unidentifiable,
members of the Armed Forces
12. Not stated(1-4)
White-collar(6-8,10)Blue-collar(9)Service(5)
Farm

NumberPer Cent
1970

Per Cent
Change7,944,450 11,358,326 100.0 100.0

—

I960

1970

1960

233,390

648,469

2.9

5.7

94.2

48,630179,270
486,080

137,714369,493774,962

0.6
2.3
6.1

1.2
3.2
6.8

100.0
43.8
11.4

5,214,160 6,022,386

65.6

53.0

-19.2

16,620177,560

32,612500,333

0.2
2.2

0.3
4.4

38.1
96.4

869,770

1,639,209

11.0

14.4

31.8

485,640

860,407

6.1

7.6

24.1

181,520

243,365

2.3

2.1

-6.1

65,1550.6
64,221
1,930,638 11.9
2,415,519 15.7
860,407
6.1
6,022,386 65.6

0.6
0.6
17.0
21.3
7.6
53.0

-12.3
44.3
35.6
24.1
-19.2

51,810947,370
1,245,470
485,640
5,214,160

The results on occupational structure by sex agreewith the above findings on industrial structure. The
majority of males held agricultural occupations acrossthe years, although the proportion also went down from74.2 per cent in 1960 to 61.6 per cent in 1970. Despite
such reductions, the number of male farmers were stillclose to five million in 1970.

Zosa

109

The proportions of males employed in all non-agricultural occupations increased positively. Large increases
occured in occupations employing smaller proportionsof males (as in the professional administrative group) as
well as those in the larger group of craftsmen.
Viewed in terms of occupational classes of workers,
most non-agricultural male workers were in the bluecollar category which increased by 61.2 per cent andswelled to 1,698,884 in 1970. Another noteworthy
aspect is the slow expansion registered in the whitecollar segment; the rate was slower compared to those in
the blue-collar and service categories.
The changes occurring in the types of activities
performed by employed females resembled those for
Table 8. Occupations of Employed Males, 1960-1970

Occupation

Number1960

1970

Per Cent
1960 1970

Total
5,990,130 7,893,260 100.0 100.0
1. Professionals, technical and
283,124
114,140
1.9
3.6
related workers
2. Proprietors, managers,
administrators & officials
41,60098,658.7
1.2
138,070
231,259
2.3
2.9
3. Clerical office & related workers
239,760
4.0
4.2
334,416
4. Salesmen & related workers
5. Farmers, farm laborers, fisherman,
hunters, lumberman & related
4,444,500 4,859,572 74.2 61.6
workers
6. Workers in minequarry & related
16,27032,185.3.4
occupations
7. Workers in operating transport
occupations
174,060
492,744
2.9
6.2
8. Craftsmen, factory operations& workers in related occupations
435,320942,329
7.3 11.9
173,890
231,6262.9
2.9
9. Manual workers & laborers, NEC
2.8
3.7
164,460
294,397
10. Service & related workers
11. Occupation not reported(occupation unidentified
members of AFP)
48,06058,475.8.7——34,475
12. Not stated.4947,457(1-4) White-collar
533,570
8.9 12.0
799,540 1,698,884 13.4 21.5
(6-9) Blue-collar(5)
Farmers
4,444,500 4,859,572 74.2 61.6
(10) Services
294,397
3.7
164,460
2.8

Per Cent
Change

88.0
81.2
27.4
6.0

-17.0
51.8
114.4
64.2
1.0
35.6

-7.5
—
34.8
61.2
-17.0
35.6

HO

LABOR FORCE

males, first, in the decline of the group of farmers andrelated workers. But it should be pointed out that thisparticular group employed the largest number of female
workers in a single category: 769,660 in 1960 comparedto 1,162,814 in 1970. Second, the proportion inwhite-collar occupations increased in almost the same
degree as did those for males. This was the only broadgroup that registered an increase; the proportions in allother categories declined, although not as considerably
as did the farmer category.
Table 9. Occupations of Employed Females, 1960-1970

Occupation

Numbers1960

Total
1. Professional, technical andrelated workers
2. Proprietors, managers,
administrators & officials
3. Clerical office & related workers
4. Salesman & related workers
5. Farmers, farm laborers,
Fishermen, hunters, .lumberman &related occupations
6. Workers in minequarry &related occupations
7. Workers in operating transport
occupations
8. Craftsmen, factory operations& workers in related occupations
9. Manual workers & laborers, NEC
10. Service & related workers
11. Occupation not reported(occupation unidentified
members of AFP)
12. Not stated(1-4) White collar(6-9) Blue-collar(5)
Farmers(10) Services

Per Cent

1970

1960

1970

Per Cent
Change1,954,320 3,465,066 100.0 100.0
119,250

365,345

6.1

10.5

72.8

7,030
41,200246,320

39,056138,234
440,546

.4
2.1
12.6

1.1
4.0
12.7

213.9
89.1
.9

769,660 1,162,814

39.4

33.6

-14.8

350

427

.0

.0

-50.0

3,500

7,589

.2

.2

22.2

434,450
7,630
321,180

696,880
11,739566,010

22.2
.4
16.4

20.1
.3
16.2

-9.5
-12.8
-.6

3,750
6,680
—
29,746
413,800
983,181445.530
716,635
769,660 1,162,814
321,180
566,010

.2
—
21.2
22.8
39.4
16.4

.2
.9
28.4
20.7
33.6
16.3

.0
—
34.0
-9.4
-14.8
-.6

Zosa

111

Trends in the Status of Workers

The status of workers in the various economic
activities indicate the extent of organization involved in
the pursuance of these activities. The presence of wage
and salary workers imply the existence of denned
recruitment and termination arrangements and therelative regularity of income throughout a period. In
1960, less than 30 per cent of all employed workers
Table 10. Trends in Ctai of Workers of the Employed Labor Force,
Philippines, 1960-1970

Oaçç
of Worker
WÄ»Ul
TT Ulftvl

Total

Per Cent

Number
1960

1970

1960

1970

Per Cent
Change7,944,450 11,358,326 100.0 100.0

Wage and salary worker
Private employee
Government employee

1,914,730
407,560

3,895,364
822,038

24.1
5.1

34.3
7.2

42.3
41.1

Self-employed
Employer

3,610,810
43,5904,200,867
154,699

45.4
0.6

37.0
1.4

-18.6
147.3

Unpaid family worker

1,959,690

2,241,337

24.7

19.7

-20.0

8,070

44,021

0.1

.4

290.0

5,990,130

7,893,260 100.0 100.0—

Private employeee
Government employee

1,346,380
293,670

2,695,461
486,638

22.5
4.9

34.2
6.2

51.9
25.7

Own-account workers
Employer

3,055,500
33,9303,366,275
103,562

51.0
0.6

42.6
1.3

-16.4
129.8

Unpaid family worker

1,254,660

1,220,190

21.0

15.5

-26.2

5,990

21,134

0.1

0.3

170.0

3,465,066 100.0 100.0—

Own-account workers

Not reported
Male
Wage and salary worker

Not reported
Female1,954,320

Wage and salary workers
568,350
113,890

1,199,903
335,400

29.1
5.8

34.6
9.7

19.1
66.0

Self-employed
Employer555,310
9,660

834,592
51,137

28.4
0.5

24.1
1.5

-15.2
202.0

Unpaid family worker

705,030

1,021,147

36.1

29.5

-18.3

Not reported

2,080

22,887

0.1

0.7

500.0

Private employee
Government employee
Own-account workers

112

LABOR FORCE

belonged to this category with the private sector
apparently the main employer of such workers (24.1 percent). Wage and salary workers increased markedly tomake up 41.5 per cent of total workers in 1970. Growth
in proportional employment was parallel in both private
and government institutions (Table 10).
Those working on their own account comprised thelargest group in 1960 (46.0 per cent). The majority weremainly working without employing other persons. In
1970, the proportion of own-account workers lessened
to about 38.3 per cent of the total with the decline
occurring only among the non-employing self-employed
while the number and proportion of employers morethan doubled.
Unpaid family workers belong to loosely definedorganizations with home or clan arrangements dictating
the structure of such activities. As of 1960, one out of
every four workers in the country were unpaid family
workers. These workers actually constitute a declining
minority: one out of five workers belonged to the same
category in 1970.
The status of male and female workers varied. Female
workers in 1960 were concentrated in the two extreme
status groups; over two-thirds were either wage andsalary or unpaid workers with the latter comprising thelarger group. About ten years later, female wage andsalary workers swelled to 44.3 per cent while those in
the latter group diminished to 29.5 per cent. The bulkof employed males for both years could be found as
working on their own account (51.6 per cent and 43.4
per cent in 1960 and 1970, respectively). This group,
however, contracted in size due to a decrease in the
proportion self-employed without workers under theirpay. A similar pattern could also be noted for females
although the proportion of own account workers among
employed females for the two successive periods
comprised only 28.9 and 25.5 per cent, respectively.

Zosa

113

SummaryThis chapter's examination)of the country's population
reveals that one out of every three persons in thePhilippines is a member of the labor force. However,being a labor force member does not warrant absorption;
open unemployment across the 1960-70 period appeared
to have increased slightly, although the figures involved
are affected by seasonal changes. Moreover, most
Filipino workers are still in the traditional sector
although a shift toward non-agricultural activities
appears to have occurred.
REFERENCES
Philippines. Bureau of the Census and Statistics.
Census of Population and Agriculture, 1948. Manila:
Bureau of Printing, 1954.
. Census of the Philippines,
1960: Population and Housing. Including unpublisheddata. Manila: 1963-1965.
Statistical Survey of Households Bulletin. Manila: 1956-1973.
Philippines. Commission of the Census. Census of thePhilippines, 1939. Manila: Bureau of Printing,1940-1941.
Philippines. National Census and Statistics Office.
Census of Population and Housing, 1970. Manila,
1974.
. National Sample Survey ofHouseholds Bulletin (formerly the BCS Survey ofHouseholds Bulletin). Manila, 1974-

POPULATION POLICYAND FAMILY PLANNING
MERCEDES B. CONCEPCIÓN

History of Population Concern
ALTHOUGH a United Nations-commissioned studyof manpower growth in the Philippines in i 957
indicated a much higher rate of population increase thanthat evident from the 1948 population census, a result
which was later confirmed by the 1960 enumeration
results, nothing much was done until late 1962 when apopulation and development mission visited Manila
under the auspices of the Ford Foundation. The mission
had as one of its objectives the establishment of national
institutes to study population in all its aspects.
Negotiations between the University of the Philippines
and the Ford Foundation ultimately led to the establishment in 1964 of a Population Institute at the University(UPPI) with initial support from the Ford Foundation.
The Institute began to train demographers, initiated a
research program on population matters significant forplanning and administrative purposes and served as a
focal point for data dealing with population.
In 1965, during the first Conference on Population
which took place under the joint auspices of the
University of the Philippines Population Institute(UPPI) and the National Science Development Board(NSDB), a study made by Dr. Frank W. Lorimer of the
UPPI indicated that maintaining the current fertility rate

115

116

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

till the end of the century would result in a Filipino
population of some 111 million persons. It was not till
October 1968, however, that the Philippine government
set up a Project Office on Maternal and Child Health in
the Department of Health with overall responsibility foradministering a population planning program.
Although family planning had been quietly promoted
by Protestant missionaries since the 1920s, it was only in1965 that two family planning associations wereorganized: the Planned Parenthood Movement of thePhilippines and the Family Planning Association of thePhilippines. These two associations merged to become
the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines in
1969. Meanwhile, the Manila City Health Department,with financial assistance from the Population Council,
introduced family planning services in seven healthcenters throughout the city. These clinics, named
pre-pregnancy clinics, steadily grew in number until all
40 health centers in Manila were involved.
While the private sector pioneered in the familyplanning movement, the government's commitment
expressed through Executive Order Nos. 171 (February,1969) and 233 (May, 1970) accelerated the expansion
and growth of the movement. The first Executive Orderestablished a Commission on Population to undertake
studies of the Philippine population in all its aspects andto formulate policy and program recommendations on
population as it relates to economic and social
development. The group submitted its recommendationsin September 1969 and President Marcos approved theCommission's recommended statement on population
policy and program in December 1969. The second
Executive Order empowered the Population Commission
to coordinate and direct the national population
program as an integral part of the national development
strategy. An Executive Director was appointed in June
1970 with responsibility for program operation.

Concepción

117

The Population Act (Republic Act No. 6365),
establishing a national policy on population was signed
into law on 15 August 1971. The Philippine Congress
declared "that for the purpose of furthering national
development, increasing the share of each Filipino in the
fruits of economic progress and meeting the grave socialand economic challenge of a high rate of population
growth, a national program of family planning which
respects the religious beliefs of the individuals involved
shall be undertaken."With the proclamation of martial law in September
1972, Republic Act No. 6365 was revised throughPresidential Decree No. 79 (December 1972) which
explicitly involved public and private sectors in thenational family planning program. The role of theCommission was also expanded by authorizing it to
distribute contraceptives through commercial channels
and paramedic personnel. Presidential Decree Nos. 166(March 1973) and 803 (September 1975) recognized theprivate sector's role in the formulation and implementation of population policy by granting them representation in the Commission's Board of Commissioners.
Since the promulgation of the Population Act of 1971
and its subsequent amendments, the following measures
have been adopted:• Family planning became an important part of theFour-Year Development Plan.
• The government's share in the family planningbudget rose from zero in FY 71 to 61 per cent in F Y 76.
• More government agencies became involved in thefamily planning program.
• A population education program was initiated at
the elementary and secondary school levels.
• Courses in family planning and population dynamics were integrated in the curricula of all schools of
medicine, nursing, midwifery, allied medical professions,and social work.

118

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING• Tax exemptions for dependents were limited to only
four dependents.
• Maternity leave benefits were reduced to the first
four deliveries only.
• Establishments required by law to maintain a clinic
or infirmary were enjoined to provide free familyplanning services to their employees.
• Importation of contraceptives was legalized andsubsequently, distribution of contraceptives was allowed
not only at duly licensed drugstores and pharmacies but
in all other commercial channels of distribution.
• All collective bargaining agreements were required
to contain a provision for family planning services to all
workers covered by such agreements before these could
be certified.
• Modern surgical techniques of contraception weredeemed acceptable provided these methods did not
involve abortion.

The Philippine Family Planning Program

The national family planning program operates froma broad and multi-sectoral base. It has identified four
major areas of activity: (a) delivery of family planning
services through clinics situated all over the country;(b) training of all types and levels of personnel in the
program; (c) information, education and communication; and (d) research and evaluation.
The original goal in F Y 1970-71 was to reduce theintercensal population growth rate from 3.01 per cent in
the 1970s to 2.47 per cent in FY 1977 by the phased
involvement of family planning clinics and by therecruitment of an average of 50,000 acceptors monthly.
The program is voluntary and non-coercive, featuring awide selection of contraceptive methods.

Concepción

119

The primary role of the Commission on Population isthat of central coordinator, orchestrating the development and administration of individual programs. As thepolicy-making, planning and funding agency of thegovernment for population matters, it refrains fromdirect implementation of projects.
In fulfilling its role, the Commission follows astrategy of "integration" and "multi-agency participation." Aware that the population problem cannot be
isolated from other problems of development, it has
integrated family planning into existing programs inhealth, education, social welfare and community development. To make full use of existing resources, it has
drawn a good number of public and private agencies
into its program.
In all its activities, the Commission recognizes theright of every couple to choose their own method offamily planning, in accordance with their moral convictions and religious beliefs.
Although organized family planning services had been
provided by various agencies since 1964, it was only in
mid-1970 that a nationwide family planning progräm
was started. From then on, the expansion of the
program has been impressive as can be seen from Table 1.
At the end of fiscal year 1970 there were only 248
clinics mostly concentrated in large cities; now there are
2,719 clinics spread all over the country.
As a result of clinic expansion, the annual number of
new acceptors has grown from the initial 56,000J in FY
1970 to 546,300 in FY 1975, adjusting for over-reporting and transferees. Correspondingly, adjusted cumulative acceptors increased from 56,000 in FY 1970 tó 2.4
million at the end of FY 1975. These figures together
with the unadjusted number of acceptors are shown in
Table 1. During FY 1975 there were some 728,400
reported new acceptors; of these, however, 30 per cent1

Covers the period January to June 1970 only.

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

120

were estimated to be cases of over-reporting andtransferees. The adjusted number of acceptors recruitedfor FY 1975, therefore, was much less than the target of889,400 for that year. Assuming the adjusted number tobe correct and allowing for an annual mortality andTable 1. Eligible Population, Number of Acceptors and Users, 1970-1977

rcnofla

Eligible
Actual Number
Population1* of New Acceptors(00 s)

(1)

(2)

(3)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

4,339.3•4,471.6
4,640.6
4,805.3
4,976.5
5,154.3
5,380.7
5,614.3

72.2
298.5
536.1
701.3
802.4
728.4
—
—

Adjusted No. of Target No. Adjusted Target No. of
Acceptors <•ofContinuing
No. of(000 s)Acceptors6 Acceptors *Users*(000 s)(000 s)
(7)
(5)
(6)
(4)
56.1
237.0
428.4
552.6
619.5
546.3
—

_
345.0
576.0
665.3
804.7
889.4
1224.0
816.0

_
—
—
439.1
515.0
551.4
911.2
607.5

47.6
226.9
505.4
786.9
1013.41122.31259.21316.51970: covering the period January—June
1971-1975: covering the Fiscal Year (July-June) period
1976: covering 1 July 1975 to 31 December 19761977
: covering the calendar year (January-December) period.
Currently married women aged 15-44. The proportions married (Smith,1974) Projected Median Series were applied to the projected population
NCSO Median Series (Monograph No. 2).

C

Data taken from POPCOM Report. 1976 and 1977 were based on theassumption of 68,000/month turn-out. June 1975 method mix was
assumed to prevail until 1977.

"^Adjusted for over-reporting and transferees (rates from NAS 1974) as
well as for 4 per cent mortality and sterility.
e1971 to 1975 figures were obtained from the "Four Year Development
Plan, FY 1974" prepared by NEDA. 1976 and 1977 figures were based onassumed 68,000 monthly turn-out of new acceptors and June 1975
method mix to prevail until 1977.
Adjusted for over-reporting and transferees (rates from NAS 1974).

g UPPI estimates of prevalence were utilized. First and All Method
Continuation rates were applied to adjusted number of acceptors. For
period subsequent to 1972, continuation rates for the year were applied.

Concepción

121

sterility rate of four per cent, the number of cumulative
users at the end of FY 1975 would appear to be in theorder of 1,122,300. This is around 21 per cent of alleligible women, defined as all married women between
the ages 15-44 years.
The degree of government concern over population
growth is indicated by the amount of funds devoted tofamily planning. Prior to 1971, population programs
had no national budget. During the years 1972-1975, thegovernment allocation rose from P8.2 million to P60.8
million. At the same time, these amounts wereaugmented by substantial additional funds from externalsources. Assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development started in FY 1968 with funds forprivate organizations that were providing services to asmall but growing number of acceptors. Through 1975,
AID inputs into the program have been estimated atover P200 million. Another contributor of growing
importance is the United Nations Fund for Population
Activities which signed a five-year agreement with thePhilippines in 1972 for projects amounting to $5
million. In the list of private donors may be cited theInternational Planned Parenthood Federation, the Pathfinder Fund, the Family Planning International Assistance, the Population Council, and the Ford andRockefeller Foundations.
Family Planning Program Impact

The success of the program depends a lot on the typesof contraceptive methods used as well as the continuation and pregnancy rates. These rates appear in Table 2.
It can be seen that two years following acceptance, 53
per cent of the women who initially accepted the pills
were still using some form of contraception, although

POPULATION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

122

only 42 per cent remained with pills. As expected, the
IUD had the highest continuation rates followed by thepills, rhythm, and other methods. It is encouraging tonote that in comparison with other family planning
programs in Asia, the first-method continuation rates of
the IUD and pill acceptors in the Philippines appear
favorable.
While the pills are clinically superior to the IUD,
under actual social conditions in the Philippines bothhave practically the same effectiveness. The reason isthat factors such as motivation, negligence, and forgetfulness affect the actual effectiveness of the pills. The
IÜD, on the other hand, once in use is very much lessaffected by these factors. It is clear from the same tablethat IUD and pills are the most effective methods with a
24-month failure rate of about seven per cent. As can be
Table 2. Two Year First Method and All-Method Conlln nation Rates
and failure Rates, Philippines 1970-1972
MethodPills

IUD

RhythmCondom

2-Year Continuation Rates
Year ofAcceptanceFirst Method All Methods
1970
1971
1972
All Years
1970
1971
1972
All Years
1970
1971
1972
All Years
1970
1971
1972
All Years

42
37
32
35
65
57
33
58
(51)
(38)
(36)
41
—
—
(11)
(15)

53.0
43.7
40.8
43.7
78.1
68.5
67.8
70.3
—
42.3
45.9
46.9
—
_
24.7
29.9

2-Year Failure Rales
All Methods
4.7
5.2
8.8
6.8
4.8
6.1
6.8
*

28.4
35.9
27.8
30.5
—
—

15.0
15.0

10.6
11.9
18.6
15.0
8.1
7.1
9.4
8.4
(28.4)
36.1)
27.9
31.3
—
_
(29.3)(27.8)

Note: Figures within parentheses denote rates based on more than 10 but
less than 50 cases.
* Weighed data not available.
SOURCES: Philips, J.F. and Z.C. Zablan, "Trends in First Method Continuation and Pregnancy Rates for the Philippine Program Overthe 1970-1972 Period," University of the Philippines Population
Institute Research Note No. 28, 1974, and, "Trends in AllMethod Continuation and Pregnancy Rates for Women Who
Accepted Over the 1970-1972 Period, 1974, NAS," Universityof the Philippines Population Institute Research Note No. 30,
1975.

Concepción

123

expected, the worst method is rhythm, with a 31 percent two-year failure rate.
Because of differential failure rates among contraceptive methods, it should be obvious that the effectivenessof the family planning program in reducing births willl
depend, among other things, on the method distributionof acceptors. As far as new acceptors are concerned,
the method mix clearly favors the highly effective ones.
It is unfortunate, however, (see Table 3) that over time
the trend in the mix has been going against the IUD andthat, until very recently, the proportion of new pill
acceptors had also dropped. Furthermore, analysis ofmethod changes and reacceptance clearly indicates a net
movement toward less effective methods.
Findings from the 1968 and 1973 National Demographic Surveys taken in conjunction with program
statistics revealed that the early years of the program
affected attitudes toward contraception and family size,
knowledge about high quality methods and use ofcontraception, especially pills. However, none of theseeffects were large enough. The median number ofchildren in 1973 was still about four, nearly twice what
it should be to reduce population growth to the replacement level through purely voluntary means .Unconditional
approval for contraception was held by only 60 per centof the married women of reproductive ages, althoughunconditional disapproval had declined markedly. Nearly
Table 3. Trend in Contraceptive Method Mix: FY 1971-1975(Adjusted Figures)
Pills

IUD

Rhythm

ComdomOthers

2.9
8.1
15.0
19.7
20.5

2.9
2.1
2.0
3:6
6.8

Per Cent
FY 1971
FY 1972
FY 1973
FY 1974
FY1975

59.9
64.0
60.6
57.7
57.8

25.5
19.0
16.3
13.6
9.6

SOURCE: Commission on Population.

8.8
6.8
6.1
5.4
5.3

124

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

three-fourths (72 per cent) of the married women of
reproductive age said that they had not yet tried any
method of contraception, and less than one-fifth (18 percent) said they were using a method at the time of thesurvey. Only 10 per cent were using the most highly
effective program methods (pills and IUD). The changes
in prevalence and method mix were estimated to have
reduced marital fertility by about five per cent, although
the decline in overall fertility was probably somewhat
greater.
The extent of the program's influence by 1973 was
better seen in the urban sectors where two-thirds tothree-fourths of respondents knew of a family planning
clinic. The effect of program clinics on current practicevaried slightly across all places of residence.
A positive association existed between educational
level and knowledge of family planning clinic. Spectacular increases in knowledge were recorded for womenwith primary education as compared tc those wives who
had not gone to school. While no direct relationshipcould be traced between current use of a clinic method
and educational attainment, it was very evident thatcurrent use of a clinic method nearly doubled among
married women with college education when contrasted
to unschooled wives. These findings argue for a change
in program strategy to overcome increasing resistance tothe recruitment of new acceptors and to motivate those
couples who are unwilling to practice family planning.
In June 1974, a survey of program acceptors for theyears 1970-72 showed that four factors hampered
program effectiveness: (1) acceptance levelled off particularly for those clinics in operation for a long periodof time; (2) greater proportions of acceptors chose theless effective methods; (3) women who switched methods
selected methods less effective than the first method;and (4) continuation rates for the effective methods had
declined.

Concepción

125

The study disclosed that women who accepted early inthe program were likely to be more highly motivated topractice family planning than women accepting after the
program had been functioning for several years. The
performance of any family planning program is afunction of the numbers of women who accept, and of
the continuation and failure rates of the methods
adopted. Although numbers of acceptors increased, themean performance of clinics declined over time.
Moreover, the proportionate distribution of the acceptors enrolled in the program in the first quarters of FY
1970 to 1975 indicated that increasing proportions of
women accepted condoms, while declining proportions
accepted the IUD. Consequently, the decreasing protection afforded acceptors was more serious than the
reduction in absolute numbers of acceptors.
Available data from the 1973 National Demographic
Survey indicated a drop of 0.57 children or nine per centin the fertility level since 1958-62. When restricted tomarital births only, it was apparent that marital fertility
was still rising as late as 1963-67. However, the trend
was reversed during 1968-72, when the rate declined by
0.41 per cent from 1963-67 to 1968-72. Later studies(Cabigon, 1976) suggest that the decline in marital
fertility may have been caused by event displacement
which would tend to show a drop when none actuallyoccurred. On the other hand, the reduction in completed
family size disclosed by the data, may have been
exaggerated due to the same phenomenon of event
displacement.
When fertility rates pertaining to the period 1958-62
through 1968-72 were contrasted, all age groups from 15
years onward showed consistent declines for the nation
as a whole. The largest declines (as much as 33 per centfor the 15-19 years old) were manifested by the two
youngest age groups, 15-24 years. Turning to age-specificmarital fertility rates, a declining trend was evident only

126

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

for age groups above 25 years for the period 1963-67 to
1968-72. Again, such a decline may have been producedby event displacement which is characteristically foundin those age groups. Turning to married women below
25 years, their births reflected steady increases over the
15-years interval—13 per cent for wives in their lateteens and four per cent for married women in their early
20s. It could be speculated that these younger women
were producing children early in their childbearing years
with the intention of completing their family size wellbefore the onset of menopause. Being younger, these
women would be less subject to memory lapse andwould report their births correctly and without bias.
In general, the peak childbearing ages were 25-34
years. Nearly half (49 per cent) of the average numberof children born to all women by the end of theirchildbearing period was contributed by these age groups.
Although women married later, they begin producing
children early in the marriage. Five out of every 11
births during marriage occurred to girls 15-24 years old,
thereby offsetting the influence of delayed marriage on
marital fertility.
Outlook for the Future
The combination of an organized family planning
program and increasing social and economic development in the past five years have produced a significant
number of contraceptive users and a drop in fertility.
Despite the rise in continuing users and the perceived
declines in birth rate,, a further increase in population isalmost inevitable because: a) the fertility of the younger
women remains high; b) the number of women in theyounger ages of childbearing has been increasing; and c)
attitudinal studies in 1974 indicate that more than half

Concepción

127(54 per cent) of women are really more predisposed
toward larger family size than they expressed at first
choice.
It is clear that the way to accelerating declines in birthrate is through: (1) further reduction of preferred family
size, (2) wider spacing of births, (3) later marriage, (4)effective communication on the more efficient contraceptive measures, and (5) greater involvement at all levelsof the administrative structure.
In an attempt to overcome these shortcomings, thefollowing activities have been initiated;a. Barrio resupply points (BRP) have been establishedin a number of communities to bring the supplies
closer to the acceptors and thus lessen the dropout rate owing to limited clinic outreach.
b. The Department of Education and Culture is
actively involved in the promotion of population
education and has authorized all educational
institutions whose faculty members had received
population education training to offer a threeunit undergraduate course in population starting
school year 1975-1976.
c. A new program orientation was put into effect inseven provinces in July 1975. As a development
philosophy, the Total Integrated Development
Approach involves two major areas of concern:
1. Integration down to community level of all
Commission on Population-funded and coordinated population program-related services ; and2. Participation by the implementing agencies andthe communities themselves in the planning,organization, management, funding and provisionof these services.
d. Feasibility studies on local manufacture of pills
and IUDs to pave the way for the eventual phaseout of commodity assistance from abroad.

128

POPULA TION POLICY & FAMIL Y PLANNING

e. Commercial distribution of condoms and later ofpills.
f. Several experimental studies—a combined approach involving food production, nutrition andfamily planning; a study on the value of children; incentive schemes of various kinds; rural
outreach program; an institutional development
program—are being carried out to accelerate
program impact.
To what extent the crude birth rate in the Philippines
can be reduced significantly by these efforts is still
unknown. It is clear, however, that provision of services
alone is insufficient to reduce the nation's still high rateof increase. The country has been tackling the task ofserving the highly motivated and ready-to-accept group.
But what remains is the task of reducing the total family
size and of spacing births at longer intervals. The task isformidable but not impossible.
REFERENCE
Cabigon, Josefina V. (1976), The Validity of Measuring
Philippine Fertility Change Through Birth History
Analysis, Unpublished thesis, University of thePhilippines Population Institute.

POPULATIONPROJECTIONSDIONISIA R. DE LA PAZ

THE CURRENT SITUATION in

the Philippines has bothgovernment and private sectors engaged in socialand economic development efforts on a more massive
and pervasive scale than in the past. Connected with thisis an increasing demand for population projections forplanning purposes as well as for a clearer understandingof demographic phenomena and the changes that they
undergo. Various agencies are increasingly turning toprojections to be able to ascertain the social andeconomic implications of demographic changes. Information on the future trend of population size andage-sex distribution is directly useful in anticipating
requirements for food, housing, transportation, healthservices, recreation, communication, and other consumer
goods and services. Specialized projections indicate theregional distribution of the population, the number ofhouseholds and families, school population and the sizeand sex-age distribution of the labor force.
Some attempts had been made to project thePhilippine population before the 1970 census (United
Nations, 1960; Lorimer, 1966; Bureau of the Census andStatistics, 1969). However, these projections are of little
use in satisfying the demands of public and private
planning agencies. More recently, the National Census
and Statistics Office (NCSO) prepared a series ofprojections based on the 1970 census of population
129

130

POPULATION PROJECTIONS-(National Census and Statistics Office, 1975). The
projections presented in this chapter were prepared by
the University of the Philippines Population Institute(TJPPI) also using the 1970 census figures. Althoughthese two latest projections followed the same methodology, the component method, they differ in their fertility
and mortality assumptions. Furthermore, in the NCSO
projections, the medium series is the average of the highand low series, while in the UPPI projections, themedium series was generated based on a separate
assumption.
Assumptions of Population Projections

Base Population. The base population used for thisset of population projections is the adjusted age and sex
distribution of the 1970 census population (National
Census and Statistics Office, 1975). These figures werethen brought forward to midyear, 1 July 1970, by
applying the exponential growth formula.
Mortality. Earlier, it was stated that mortality
statistics in this country as obtained from the registration
system are grossly inadequate. Thus, age-sex-specificmortality rates required for population projections
cannot be computed from available mortality statistics.
To meet this need, model life tables based on theexperiences of other countries were used.
Several investigators have made estimates of theaverage expectation of life at birth for different periods(Zablan, 1975). For the year 1970, the estimates ranged
from 57.6 (Engracia, 1974) to 59.6 (Zablan, 1975).
Adopting a level of 58 years for both sexes as areflection of the true mortality conditions obtaining thatyear, probabilities of surviving were computed using the"West" family of model life tables.

de la Paz

131

The pattern of improvement in life expectancy was
assumed to occur uniformly throughout the projection
period with quinquennial increments amounting to 1.9
years or an annual increment of 0.38 year (Zablan,1975). Thus, with an initial expectation of life at birthfor both sexes of 58 years in 1970, life expectancy is
expected to reach a level of 67.5 years by the end of the
century. This assumption is based on the results of theanalysis made on the trends in mortality since 1918.
The chapter on Components of Growth drew attention
to the trend in average expectation of life at birth overthe period 1918-1970. The trend suggests a thresholdlevel of mortality has been reached at a level of 58 years sinceminimal improvements in life expectancy have been
observed and can be expected in the near future(Zablan, 1975).
Fertility. In the absence of accurate birth statistics,
estimates of fertility levels, trends and age patterns using
census and survey data, were used.
The National Demographic Survey of 1973 provides
information on fertility levels and patterns by age fromdata collected in the form of pregnancy histories, which
records the date of birth, sex and type of terminationof each pregnancy in the order of occurrence. The
resulting age-specific fertility rates for the period
1968-72 centering in the year 1970 were utilized forthe projections.
With respect to the future course of fertility, threealternative assumptions were made (Sous, 1975).
a. High series: In this assumption, the scheduleof age-specific fertility rates observed in 1970,
resulting in a total fertility rate of 5.89, was assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period.
b. Medium series: This series assumed a moderate decline in age-specific fertility rates, with the132

POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

annual rates of decline following Leibenstein's
formulation as modified by Lorimer in 1965. It
was further assumed that the decline in total fertility rate took effect during the middle of the first
quinquennial period, 1970-75, from a level of
5.89 in 1970 to 5.44, indicating a decline of 0.45
birth or eight per cent. The total fertility rate wasassumed to decline further to 5.00, 4.60, 4.23,3.90
in the following quinquennial periods. By the turnof the century, the projected total fertility rate wasassumed to have declined to 3.59, implying an
overall decline of 39 per cent.
c. Low series: This series assumed an accelerated decline in fertility over the 30-year projection
period, starting from 1970, with a doubling of theassumed annual rates of decline in accordance with
the Leibenstein-Lorimer formulation. According tothis assumption, the total fertility rate observed in1970 would have declined to 4.96 by the middleof the first quinquennial and was assumed to decline further to 4.19 by the period 1975-1980, to
3.56 by the third quinquennial period, to 3.03 and2.58 in the following two five-year periods, andfinally, to 2.21 by the end of the century.

Migration. It was assumed that net internationalmigration would remain negligible throughout the
projection period in view of the fact that the government has discouraged migration to and from thecountry.
Sex Ratio at Birth.
From the birth registration
statistics of 1970, the sex ratio at birth was estimated tobe 110 males per 100 females. However, this ratio isbelieved to be too high for the country. For projection
purposes a sex ratio of 105 was utilized.

de la Paz

133

Projected Population by Age and Sex

Based on assumptions regarding the future course ofeach of the components of population change, namely,
fertility, migration and mortality, and the estimatedmidyear population by age and sex as of 1970, thePhilippine population was projected to the year 2000 by
five-year intervals using the component method of
projection. The results are presented in Table. 1.
Table 1. Projected Male and Female Population by Five-Year Age Groupand by Five-Year Intervals, 1970-2000 (000 s)
Age
Group
Male
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +
Female
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +

Base
Population

1975

1980

High

MediumLow

High

Medium

Low

151
164

3,690
3,071
2,803
2,531
1,959
1,503
1,168
986
914
703
591
462
356
258
145
166

3,415
3,071
2,803
2,531
1,959
1,503
1,168
986
914
703
591
462
356
258
145
166

3,126
3,071
2,803
2,531
1,959
1,503
1,168
986
914
703
591
462
356
258
145
166

4,506
3,600
3,043
2,774
2,492
1,923
1,472
1,140
956
877
664
544
408
296
196
164

3,847
3,332
3,043
2,774
2,492
1,923
1,472
1,140
956
877
664
544
408
296
196
164

3,255
3,050
3,043
2,744
2,492
1,923
1,472
1,140
956
877
664
544
408
296
1%
164

3,077
2,721
2,493
2,109
1,633
1,278
1,070
964
757
660
516
407
304
198
142
190

3,574
2,997
2,694
2,444
2,078
1,604
1,252
1,044
936
731
630
484
370
263
158
183

3,307
2,997
2,694
2,444
2,078
1,604
1,252
1,044
936
731
630
484
370
263
158
183

3,027
2,997
2,694
2,444
2,078
1,604
1,252
1,044
936
731
630
484
370
263
158
183

4,358
3,496
2,971
2,653
2,413
2,045
1,575
1,225
1,018
907
700
593
443
322
211
194

3,721
3,235
2,971
2,653
2,413
2,045
1,575
1,225
1,018
907
700
593
443
322
211
194

3,148
2,961
2,971
2,653
2,413
2,045
1,575
1,226
1,018
907
700
593
443
322
211
194

3,162
2,832
2,560
1,992
1,534
1,195
1,013
945
736
629
504
405
313

192

134

POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

Table 1. Projected Male and Female Population by Five-Year Intervals,
1970-2000 (000's) (Continued)
Age
Group

1985

1990

High

MediumLow

High

Medium

Low

5,416
4,416
3,572
3,016
2,738
2,452
1,889
1,442
1,109
921
831
613
484
342
227
200

4,274
3,770
3,305
3,016
2,738
2,452
1,889
1,442
1,109
921
831
613
484
342
227
200

3,348
3,190
3,025
3,016
2,738
2,452
1,889
1,442
1,109
921
831
613
484
342
227
200

6,363
5,328
4,386
3,544
2,980
2,699
2,414
1,855
1,407
1,072
877
772
549
409
265
239

4,622
4,204
3,745
3,280
2,980
2,699
2,414
1,855
1,407
1,072
877
772
549
409
265
239

3,343
3,294
3,168
3,002
2,980
2,699
2,414
1,855
1,409
1,072
877
772
549
409
265
239

5,233
4,281
3,471
2,941
2,624
2,380
2,013
1,545
1,198

4,130
3,655
3,212
2,941
2,624
2,380
2,013
1,545
1,198
989
872
662
545
388
261
240

3,235
3,092
2,940
2,941
2,624
2,380
2,013
1,545
1,198
989
872
662
545
388
261
240

6,141
5,161
4,257
3,449
2,915
2,594
2,348
1,981
1,515
1,167
954
828
612
482
318
301

4,460
4,073
3,634
3,192
2,915
2,594
2,348
1,981
1,515
1,167
954
828
612
482
318
301

3,226
3,191
3,075
2,921
2,915
2,594
2,348
1,981
1,515
1,167
954
828
612
482
318
301

Male
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +
Female
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +

989
872
662
545
388
261
240

Growth of the Total Population. The projections
reveal the considerable growth of the Philippine
population even under the assumption of a rapid
fertility decline. This can be explained by the fact that
under favorable mortality conditions, more of theyounger members of the population would survive in far
greater numbers by the time they reach the childbearing
ages than ever before.

de la Paz

135

Table 1. Projected Male and Female Population by Five-year Age Groapand by Five-Year Intervals, 1970-2000 (000 s) (Continned)
Age
Group

1995

2000

High

MediumLow

High

Medium

Low

7,394
6,282
5,297
4,356
? 508
2,944
2,664
2,377
1,816
1,366
1,025
819
468
319
286

4,872
4,563
4,180
3,720
3,246
2,944
2,664
2,377
1,816
1,366
1,025
819
695
468
319
286

3,213
3,300
3,275
3,147
2,971
2,944
2,664
2,377
1,816
1,366
1,025
819
695
468
319
286

8,663
7,325
6,253
5,268
4,319
3,472
2,912
2,628
2,334
1,769
1,311
962
742
597
369
348

5,070
4,826
4,542
4,157
3,688
3,213
2,912
2,628
2,334
1,769
1,311
962
742
597
369
348

2,984
3,183
3,285
3,257
3,120
2,941
2,912
2,628
2,334
1,769
1,311
962
742
597
369
348

7,128
6,077
5,137
4,235
3,423
2,888
2,566
2,317
1,947
1,480
1,130
909
769
545
398
375

4,697
4,414
4,054
3,616
3,168
2,888
2,566
2,317
1,947
1,480
1,130
909
769
545
398
375

3,097
3,192
3,176
3,059
2,900
2,888
2,566
2,317
1,947
1,480
1,130
909
769
545
398
375

8,341
7,077
6,057
5,115
4,211
3,398
2,862
2,538
2,284
1,908
1,437
1,081
850
690
454
476

4,882
4,663
4,399
4,037
3,595
3,145
2,862
2,538
2,284
1,908
1,437
1,081
850
690
476
476

2,873
3,075
3,182
3,162
3,042
2,878
2,862
2,538
2,284
1,908
1,437
1,081
850
690
476
476

Male
0—4
5—9
10—14
15—19
20—24
25—29
30—34
35-39
40—44
45—49
50—54
55—59
60—64
65—69
70—74
75 +
Female
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75 +

695

SOURCE: Paz, Dionisia R. delà, "Philippine Population Projections,1970-2000", Research Note No. 60, University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.

Table 2 shows the projected population totals and percent increases according to the various assumptions.
Under the high series, the projections indicate a near
doubling of the 1970 population by the year 1990. By
1995, the population would have more than doubled,

136

POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

representing an increase of 125 per cent since 1970. By
the year 2,000, the projected population shows anincrease of 166 per cent over the previous three decades.
The medium series of projections shows that the
population will nearly double by the year 1995,
representing a 92 per cent increase over the base period.
By the end of the 20th century, this assumption
generated a total population 114 per cent larger thanthat found in 1970. The low series manifested slower
growth of the population. According to this assumption,
the population is expected to grow by only 78 per centover the next three decades.
Table 2. Projected Total Population and Per Cent Increase
Philippines, 1970-2000
Year
High
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Medium1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Low
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000

Projected Population°/o Increase

36,849,229
42,747,280
50,182,690
59,313,458
70,184,290
82,942,738
98,050,629

—
16
36
61
90
125
166

36,849,229
42,205,782
48,358,063
55,272,428
62,766,418
70,634,322
78,767,905

14
31
50
70
92
114

36,849,229
41,636,299
46,636,255
51,756,601
56,775,336
61,434,873
65,534,492

13
26
40
54
67
78

SOURCE: Paz, Dionisia R. delà, "Population Projections: 1970-2000"
Project Report, PREPF Phase I. University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.

de la Paz

137

Concomitant with the increase in population size is
the increase in population density. A glance at Table 3
shows that under the high series, from an average of ( 123
persons per square kilometer in 1970, the population
density is expected to double by 1990 (234) and nearly
triple by the year 2000 (327). Assuming a moderate
decline in fertility, population density would more thandouble in the year 2000 with 262 inhabitants per square
kilometer. Under the low assumption, the resultant
population density would be 218.
Table 3. Population Density as Estimated from the Various Population
Projections: Philippines, 1970-2000
Year

High

MediumLow

1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000

123
142
167
198
234
276
327

123
141
161
181
209
235
262

123
139
155
172
189
205
218

SOURCE: Paz, Dionisia R. delà, "Population Projections: 1970-2000",
Project Report, PREPF Phase I. University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.

Changes in the Age Structure. The proportion of thetotal population in broad age groups is shown in. Table
4. According to the high series, the proportion of thetotal population under 15 years of age is expected to
decline slightly from 47.5 per cent in 1970 to 44.6 percent in the year 2000. Under the assumption of amoderate decline in fertility, the proportion in this sameage group will drop by almost 10 points from 47.5 to
36.0 at the end of the century. Under the low
assumption, the proportion of the population below 15
by the year 2000 will be reduced to nearly half its levelin 1970.
The proportion of the population in the working ages,
15-64 years, will remain constant at about 52 per centfrom 1970 to the end of the projection period, according

POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

138

to the high series. Under the medium assumption, this
proportion will increase from 51.5 per cent in 1970 to
60.3 per cent in the year 2000. Under the low series, theproportion of the population aged 15-64 will increase bynearly 16 percentage points, from 51.5 to 67.2.
Table 4. Structure of the Philippine Population (In Percentages)
By Broad Age Groups, 1970-2000
Year
High
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Medium1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Low
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000

0-14

15-64

65+

Total

45.7
44.1
43.8
44.5
45.1
45.0
44.«

51.5
53.2
53.4
52.7
52.0
52.1
52.4

2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

45.7
43.3
41.7
40.4
39.4
37.9
36.0

51.5
53.9
55.4
56.6
57.4
58.7
60.3

2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

45.7
42.6
39.5
36.4
34.0
31.3
28.3

51.5
54.6
57.5
60.4
62.4
64.8
67.2

2.8
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

SOURCE: Paz, Dionisia R. delà, "Population Projections: 1970-2000"
Project Report, PREPF Phase I. University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.

The proportion of the population above 64 will follow
the trend exhibited by the working age population. The
proportion of the aged population is expected to remain
constant at 2.8 per cent throughout the projection
period, as shown by the high series. The medium series
show a slight increase from 2.8 per cent in 1970 to 3.7

de la Paz

139

per cent in the year 2000. The low assumption
manifested a rise of almost two percentage points, from
2.8 per cent to 4.5 per cent at the turn of the century.
Dependency Burden. Linked with the expected changes
in the age structure is a change in the dependency ratio.
The dependency ratios computed from the various
population projections are presented in Table 5. The
child dependency ratio (the ratio of the number ofchildren below age 15 to the number of persons in theages 15-64) was 89 in 1970. This ratio is expected toTable 5. Dependency Ratios According to Various Population Projections for
the Philippines, 1970-2000

Year

High
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Medium1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
Low
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000

Child
Dependency
Ratio

Aged
Dependency
Ratio

Total
Dependency
Ratio

89
83
82
84
86
86
85

5
5
5
5
6
6
6

94
88
87
89
92
92
91

89
80
75
71
64
60

5
5
5
5
6
6
6

94
85
80
76
75
70
66

89
78
69
60
54
48
42

5
5
5
5
6
6
7

94
83
74
65
60
54
49

69

SOURCE: Paz, Dionisia R. delà, "Population Projections: 1970-2000"
Project Report, PREPF Phase I. University of the Philippines
Population Institute, 1975.

140

POPULA TION PROJECTIONS

decline slightly to 85 in the year 2000 according to thehigh series. Under the assumptions of moderate andrapid declines in fertility, the ratio will drop to 60 and
42, respectively, by 2000 A.D. The aged dependency
ratio (the ratio of the number of persons 65 years old
and over to the number of persons in the ages 15-64)
show very little change over the 30-year period for all
three sets of projections. According to the highassumption, the total dependency ratio would mean one
working Filipino supporting one other dependent. If
the medium assumption were to be realized, the total
dependency would be much lighter, with three working
Filipinos supporting two dependents. Under the low
series, two persons in the working ages would support
only one dependent.

141

de la Paz

REFERENCES
Demography Division. Bureau of the Census and Statistics, "Population Projections of the Philippines,
1960-1975": December 15, 1969. (mimeographed)
Engracia, Luisa T. Estimates of the Life Table Functions of the Philippines: 1970.
Monograph No. 1,
NCSO-NEDA: 1974.
Lorimer, Frank W. "Analysis and Projections of the
Population of the Philippines" in the Proceedings ofthe First Conference on Population, 1965* the Population Institute, University of the Philippines Press:
Quezon City, 1966, pp. 200-314.
Philippines. National Census and Statistic Office. Ageand Sex Population Projections for the Philippines by
Province: 1970-2000. Monograph No. 2, NCSONEDÀ: 1975.
Paz, Dionisia R. delà. "Population Projections: 19702000." Project Report, PREPF Phase I. University of
the Philippines Population Institute, 1975.
Paz, Dionisia, R. delà. "Philippine Population Projections, 1970-2000", Research Note No. 60, Universityof the Philippines Population Institute, 1975.
Solis, Helen C. "Fertility Assumptions for Philippine
Population Projections, 1970-2000," Research Note
No. 55. University of the Philippines Population
Institute, 1975.
United Nations. Population Growth and Manpower in
the Philippines, Population Studies, No. 32, United
Nations. New York:, 1960, pp. 6-10.
Zablan, Zelda C. "The Prospects of Mortality in theYear 2000: A First Attempt," Research Note No. 56,
University of the Philippines Population Institute,
1975.

142

POPULATIONPROJECTIONS

Zablan, Zelda C , and Emmanuel Viriña. "A Threshold
Level of Mortality: Some Evidences from Past
Trends," Research Note Nö. 83, University of thePhilippines Population Institute, 1975.
Zablan, Zelda C.
"The Evaluation of Existing Mortality Estimates: Philippines, 1902-1973," Research
Note No. ,82. University of the Philippines Population
Institute, 1975.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMICIMPLICATIONS OF
POPULATION GROWTHERNESTO M. PERNIATHE IMPLICATIONS of

population growth are conceivably
many and complex. This chapter attempts to merely
sketch out the broad implications with a view toproviding a perspective for policy. It seems logical tostart with the more obvious and proceed to theless perceptible implications.
Size, Density, and Structure
The preceding chapter on population projections
revealed the direct demographic effects that would
emerge from three different regimes to population
growth. The variations are considerable and bearrecasting here. The three different streams of population
size resulting from a continuation of the latest observable trend (high), moderately diminishing (medium), andrapidly falling growth rate are as follows (in thousands):

Year

High

Medium

Low

1975
1980
1990
2000

42,74750,18370,184
98,051

42,20648,35862,76678,77041,636
46,636
56,77565,534

143

144

IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH

The corresponding population densities per square
kilometer would be the following:
Year

High

Medium

Low

1975
1980
1990
2000

142
167
234
327

141
161
209
262

139
155
189
218

The third direct demographic consequence of population growth is on the age structure, which may be
expressed • in socio-economic terms by the dependency
burden (in per cent), to wit:
Year

High

Medium

Low

1975
1980
1990
2000

87.9
87.1
92.1
90.8

85.6
80.3
74.3
66.0

83.0
73.9
60.1
48.9

All three demographic features (size, density, anddependency burden) manifest exponentially widening
divergencies over time. This is because of the momentum inherent in the growth process (see Keyfitz, 1971).
It is significant, for example, that the burden of
dependency would mount slightly if the growth rate of
the 1960s predominates, but would be cut by nearly aquarter or over two-fifths if the growth rate slows down
moderately or dramatically. The rise in old-age dependency due to declining fertility would be minimal, that
is, aging would be no problem as yet by the end of the
century.

Pernia

145

Distribution

The process of urbanization or rural-urban transformation would also be affected by the rate of population
growth. Past trends reveal that this transformation
proceeded more rapidly before the post-war accelerationof population growth (Pernia, 1976). This is becausesuch acceleration was much greater in the rural sector
than in the urban sector, and because the heavier
dependency burden stemming from high fertility in rural
areas tended to retard movement to urban areas.
Additionally, to the extent that rapid population growthhampered economic development, rural-urban restructuring was also slowed down.
Assuming, nonetheless, that the pace of urbanization
would pick up, we can estimate, for illustrative
purposes, the possible sizes of rural and urban
population by 2000 A.D. Here, we split the broad
urban category into the population living in big cities(100,000 + ) and those in smaller urban places. The
results, based on the three population projection series,
would be the following (in thousands):
Per cent(constant)High
27,70051,771

Medium27,34941,591

Low
26,98034,602

Small Urban
1975
7,011
2000
13,923

6,914
11,21.7

6,828
9,306

16.4
14.2

Big City
1975
8,036
2000
32,357

7,943
25,962

7,828
21,626

18.8
33.0

Rural
1975
2000

64.8
52.8

146

IMPLICA TIONS OF POPULA TION GROWTH

Thus, the prospect to be especially reckoned with is thephenomenon of citification. City population wouldgrow annually at 5.7 per cent under high population
growth, 4.8 per cent under medium, and 4.1 per centunder low growth. About one-half of the end-of-thecentury city population would constitute the Manila
megalopolis even assuming a tapering of its growth.
Yet, the growth of rural populations cannot be ignored.
The estimates suggest that citification, urbanization, andrural development would be more manageable if fertility
declines. Although it is not shown with the foregoing
estimates, it must be noted again that the decline inrural proportion and corresponding increases in urban
and city proportions can proceed faster, while theabsolute sizes would be smaller, under a regime of slow
population growth.
National Income

Perhaps, the most obvious economic consequence of
population growth is that on income per capita.
Changing population growth trends would mean differ-1
ent levels of income per capita. We can appreciate thesevariations by relating the three projected population
series to the medium projections of real gross national
product (at 1967 prices), which are based on the
post-war annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent (Barlis,
1975). The prospective GNPs per capita (in pesos) would
be as follows:
Year
1975
1980
1990
2000

High
1,013
1,182
1,587
2,132

Medium
1,026
1,227
1,774
2,654

Low
1,040
1,272
1,961
3,190

Thus, the high series would imply a real GNP per capita
in 2000 A.D. of just over double the 1975 level. On theother hand, the medium series would mean a 160 perPernia147

cent increase, and the low series a tripling of GNP per
capita in 25 years. The income differential between thehigh and the low series would be some PI ,058 per
capita, an amount bigger than the 1975 level; likewise,
the differential between the high and medium would be
about half this amount. The implied annual growth
rates of real income per capita are 3.0 per cent, 3.9 per
cent, and 4.6 per cent, respectively, for the high,medium, and low series.
As is well recognized, these are at best crude
measures of economic well-being. However, it is notpossible to illustrate here the income distribution
pictures that might be associated with different population futures. We can only suggest two things. First,
since the first survey of family income in 1956, income
distribution (as measured by Gini coefficient) does notseem to have improved; if any, it appears to haveworsened (Mangahas, 1975). And, second, to the degree
that the fertility of low-income groups is higher thanother groups, it seems logical to suppose that apersistence of high fertility would worsen rather than
improve income inequity. Furthermore, population
growth tends to raise land values and rents while itdepresses wages. There are, of course, other more subtle
effects of demographic factors on income distribution,
which are discussed lengthily elsewhere (see e.g.,
Boulier, 1975; Mangahas, 1974).
At the micro level, growth in the size of the family
would, after a time lag of 10 to 15 years, lead to anincrease in the number of family workers arid, in turn,to an increase in family income. But it appears that thismarginal effect on income diminishes with the increasein number of family workers (Mangahas, 1974).
Moreover, the time lag during which the additional
member is a dependent must be reckoned with and theavailability of productive employment upon maturity is
another matter to consider. The attainment of real

148

IMPLICA TIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH

maturity may be a negative function of family size inthat child health and family size are inversely correlated(see,e.g., Corsa and Oakley, 1971).
Food, Housing and Employment

Poverty as measured conservatively by the foodthreshold has deteriorated markedly over the past
decade (Abrera, 1975). The trend has been worse inrural areas than in urban areas. On the whole, thenumber of persons below the food threshold swelledfrom about 11.6 million in 1965 to 16.6 million in 1971.
This means that the growth in number of poor people
has been much more rapid than the overall growth of
population.
Again, we do not have sufficient basis for relating thefood problem to the population projections above. But
it seems foolhardy to remain sanguine about the future
if one thinks in terms of unrelenting population growth.
A similar comment may be made concerning the
problems of housing and employment. A continuationof the recent trend would imply an increase in thenumber of families from 7.5 millions to 17.8 millions,and the number of households from 6.9 to 16.0 millions
over the next quarter century (Cabigon, 1975). At thesame time, the size of the work force would double tosome 30.0 millions if current participation rate is
assumed to prevail and applied to the medium population projection (Domingo, 1975).
Government Expenditures

Population growth would have a bearing on thegovernment budget. The faster population expands, thegreater will be the strain on the government's fiscal
capacity for such public services as education, health,Pernia

149

social welfare, national defense, maintenance of peaceand order. Budgetary problems would be more serious
still in view of the growth of cities where public services
would be required to a greater extent. Conversely,
declining fertility would enable the government not only
to improve the quality of public services but also toallocate more public funds for infrastructures and othercapital investments that enhance the productive capacityof the economy. In short, rapid population growthentails a social cost to a country with limited capital
resources.
Bautista (1974) has developed a model for projecting
government expenditures on education and health undermoderate versus slow population growth assumptions.
Annual and total savings in education (elementary andsecondary) and health expenditures due to reduced
population growth are estimated (Bautista, 1974:230) tobe as follows:Year

Savings(in million 1967 pesos)

1975
1980
1990
2000
Total: 1971-2000

5
92
1,105
2,514
23,295Note that the estimates assume decreasing enrollment
rates in government general secondary schools, increasing enrollment rates in government vocational secondary
schools, and rising government health expenditures per
capita, to take into account recent policy directions. The
savings are relatively small in the first few years becauseof the lagged effects of fertility reduction, but become
increasingly substantial over time. By the year 2000, theaggregate saving would be from 67 to 73 per cent of real

150

IMPLICA TÍOSS OF POPULA TION GRO WTH

gross national product in 1970. Bautista (1974:222)
concludes that "these figures should be regarded asreflecting only the minimum quantitative effect of
population growth on government expenditures since
there are components of the public budget other thaneducation and health that are also population-dependent."
Trade and Aid
Other areas on which population growth impinges,
indirectly perhaps but importantly nonetheless, areforeign trade and aid. It is logical to suppose that trade
and aid requirements would be greater the faster
population expands, other things being equal. Chances
for future financial independence would be slimmer thanif fertility were declining (see Pearson, 1969). The
extent, nature, and direction of trade and aid depend
one way or another on the size and composition of the
population.
Concluding remarks

The underlying assumption of the discussion has beenthat the social and economic consequences of rapid
population growth tend to be negative. There are those,of course, who continue to argue otherwise, who keepon hoping that rapid population growth may lead to or beaccompanied by technological breakthroughs or otherquasi-miracles. But historical and recent evidence continue to nullify their arguments. It seems more reasonable
to expect that "miracles" are more likely to occur where
the conditions have been set than otherwise.
We have attempted to project our vision to 2000 A.D.
because the long-run implications of population growth
are more momentous than the short-run. The consequences of demographic processes cumulate exponen-

Pernia

151

tially over time (as shown by the data), while theprospects for development crucially hinge on the qualityof the next generation. Deservedly, therefore, the year
2000 has become the new focus of research and,hopefully, of policy as well.
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Abrera, Ma. Alcestis (1975). "Philippine Poverty Thresholds." Measuring Philippine Development. Development Academy of the Philippines.
Barlis, Mindanilla (1975). "Preliminary Projections of
GNP and Income Inequality in the Year 2000."PREPF Phase I Report, University of the Philippines
School of Economics (August).
Bautista, Romeo M. (1974). "Population and Government Expenditures." Studies in Philippine EconomicDemographic Relationships. IEDR, University of thePhilippines School of Economics, pp. 200-235.
Boulier, Bryan L. (1975), "The Effects of Demographic
Variables on Income Distribution." Discussion Paper
No. 61, Research Program in Economic Development.
Princeton University (May).
Cabigon, Josefina V. (1975). "Patterns, Trends, andDifferentials in Household Headship in the Philippines." Research Note No. 67, University of thePhilippines Population Institute.
Corsa, L., Jr. and Oakley, D. (1971). "Consequence ofPopulation Growth for Health Services in Less
Developed Countries." Chapter 10 in NAS Rapid
Population Growth. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins
Press, 1971.
Domingo, Lita J. (1975). "Labor Force Projections:
AssumDtions of Constant Activity Rates." Research
Note No. 80, University of the Philippines Population
Institute.

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IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH

Keyfitz, Nathan (1971). "On the Momentum of Population Growth." Demography, 8:71-80 (February).
Mangahas, Mahar K. (1974). Family Size as a Determinant of Family Expenditure," Studies in Philippine
Economic Demographic Relationships. IEDR, University of the Philippines School of Economics, pp.
236-275.
Mangahas, Mahar K.(1974). "Income Inequality in thePhilippines: A Decomposition Analysis." IEDR Discussion Paper 74-15, University of the Philippines
School of Economics (November).
Mangahas, Mahar K. (1975). "The Measurement ofPhilippine National Welfare," Measuring Philippine
Development. Development Academy of the Philippines.
Pearson, Lester B. (1969). Partners in Development,
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Pernia, Ernesto M. (1976). "Population Growth and
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