Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation(for Japanese ODA Loan)
Office for Indian High Speed Rail, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Name of the Project(1) Country: Republic of India (India)(2) Project: Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail(IV)
(3) Project Site / Target Area: Gujarat State, Maharashtra State, Dadra andNagar Haveli (Total Population: about 170 million (2011))
Loan Agreement: March 29, 2023
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector and the Priority of the Projectin India
In recent years, India's remarkable economic growth, population growth, andurbanization have led to a rapid increase in domestic rail passenger and freighttransport. The volume of passenger and freight transport in 2019 reachedapproximately 1.7 times and 2.6 times respectively, compared with in 2000
(Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India, 2020). In 2020, the volume of passenger
transport temporarily decreased due to the pandemic, while the volume of freighttransport continues to increase. On the other hand, track capacity as of 2014
was only about 50% of the amount expected to be needed for passenger andfreight transport in 2032 (DFCCIL, 2014). Furthermore, existing conventional raillines are facing frequent delays and other problems, therefore, development of asmooth passenger and freight transport system are expected in India. In
particular, the states of Maharashtra and the states of Gujarat, which account for
more than 20% of India's total GDP as of 2021 (Reserve Bank of India, 2021),
are expected to continue stable economic growth over the next 30 years(Planning Commission of India, 2014), and JICA's "Joint Feasibility Study for
Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway Corridor (hereinafter referred to as
the "F/S Survey")" for the "Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail (hereinafter referred to as "the Project")" estimates that the
number of daily passengers between Mumbai and Ahmedabad on the four typeof transportation mode (air, rail, long-distance bus, and automobile) will increaseapproximately 9.8 times from 2014 (approximately 154,000 passengers) to 2053
(approximately 1.5 million passengers), and approximately 200,000 of thesepassengers will use the High Speed Rail in 2053.
Under these circumstances, in the "Indian Railway Vision 2020" formulated in
December 2009, the MoR of India has set forth the development of High Speed
Rail lines in addition to the modernization of conventional lines and theenhancement of transportation capacity. In 2012, the "the Expert Group forModernization of Indian Railways" established by the MoR to implement thispolicy, recommended that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section be designated as thehighest priority section and that High Speed Rail projects be promoted.
Furthermore, in December 2015, the Prime Minister of Japan and India agreed
in a joint statement that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section "will be developed withthe use of Japanese high speed rail technologies (i.e. the Shinkansen system)and experiences" and that "both sides will take necessary steps so that financial
and technical assistance for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway(MAHSR) project will be provided by relevant Japanese institutions". At theJapan-India summit meeting in May 2022, the two leaders welcomed the signingof a yen loan for the third phase of the high-speed rail project and confirmed thatthey would continue to make steady progress in the high-speed rail project, aflagship project of Japan and India. As described above, the Project is positioned
as an important project in the Indian Railways Sector Development Policy.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Railway
Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for India (March 2016) indicates"Enhancing Connectivity" through the development of transportation
infrastructure and other infrastructure as a priority area. The Policy promotes
development of railways (including High Speed Rail and metro) to enhanceconnectivity within major industrial cities and economic zones and between
regions in India with a view to eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks to investment
and growth. In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018)
analyzes the need for support for infrastructure development, including main
railway, metros, roads, and ports, to eliminate bottlenecks to economic growth.
Also, to support sustainable and inclusive growth, the JICA will promote
cooperation in addressing environmental and climate change issues, and thisProject is in line with these policies and analyses. Furthermore, it has been

repeatedly confirmed in the Japan-India Joint Statement and at the Japan-India
Summit that the Project will be promoted as a flagship project between the twocountries. In addition, this Project will contribute to SDGs Goal 8 "Promotesustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive
employment and decent work for all"; Goal 9 "Build resilient infrastructure,promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation"; Goal
11 "Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable"
and Goal 13 " Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank supports the Mumbai Urban Transport Project (USD 972 million,
approved in 2002 and 2010) and the development of the Eastern DedicatedFreight Corridor (USD 2,725 million, approved in 2011, 2014 and 2015). The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) supports Jaipur Metro (USD 176 million,
approved in 2014), Bengaluru Metro line 2A/2B (USD500 million, approved in2021) and jointly supports Mumbai Metro line 2A/2B and 7 with New
Development Bank (NDB) (ADB: USD 926 million (2019), NDB: USD 260 million
respectively (2018)) and Chennai Metro line 3/4 (ADB: USD 350 million, NDB:USD 347 million respectively (2022)).
3. Project Description(1) Project Description
1） Project Objective
The Project aims to develop a high-frequency transportation system byconstructing a high-speed rail along an approximately 500-km section between
Mumbai in Maharashtra and Ahmedabad in Gujarat, with the use of JapaneseHigh Speed Rail technologies, thereby improving the connectivity in India andcontributing to the broad economic development of the target area.
2） Project Componentsa) Civil Engineering/Construction Work (Viaducts section: about 450km,
Tunnel section: about 25km (including undersea tunnel), Others (Particular
Bridge etc.): about 25km, Station building (12 stations))b) Railroad Track Construction Workc) Electrical/Mechanical Workd) Depot Construction Worke) Procurement of Rolling Stocks/Track Inspection Vehicles

f) Procurement of Inspection/Maintenance Car
Consulting Services (construction supervision (quality control, safety
management, Environmental and Social Consideration Support),
Technology transfer to improve executing agency’s capacity to supervise
construction, etc.)(2) Estimated Project Cost
1,806,282 million yen (F/S basis. Currently under review between the
Government of India and the Government of Japan, in light of subsequentchanges in the economic environment and other factors.) (Japanese ODA Loan
for Tranche (IV): 300,000 million yen)
(3) Schedule
Under discussion between the Government of India and the Government ofJapan.
(4) Project Implementation Structure1） Borrower: President of India
2） Guarantor: None
3） Executing Agency: National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited(hereinafter referred to as “NHSRCL”)
4） Operation and Maintenance Agency：Same as above 3)(5) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1） Japan’s Activity
In association with the Project, the following Technical Assistance under Financeand Investment Account has been implemented.

Name of JICA
Project
Joint Feasibility
Study forMumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Railway
Corridor (F/S
Survey)PeriodDecember 2013
– June 2015

Relationship with the Project● Preparatory Survey of the
Project

The Detailed Design

December 2016

● Detailed design study of theStudy of the Mumbai- Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway
Project– February
2024 (Planned)

Project (D/D).
● Basic design, detailed design,
preparation of tender documents
and tender assistance regarding
the Project as well as
Construction of Training Institutefor MAHSR Project.
● Developing various regulations
related toconstruction/operation/maintena
nce of high speed rail anddrafting a training plan for
training lecturers.

Capacity
development of theConstruction ofHigh Speed Railway
Corridor
The Detailed Design
Study for theElectrical packagesof theAugust 2017 –March 2024
(Planned)

January 2022－● Technical assistance by Japan
Railway Company to NHSRCL
by making good use ofexperiences as a bullet train
operator in Japan● Detailed design study of theElectrical Packages

March 2025
(Planned)

Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail
Project
Experts for Acting on
behalf of Employer's
Works for Detailed
Design Documentsof Electrical
Packages for
Mumbai-Ahmadabad
High Speed Rail
Project

January 2022－
March 2025
(Planned)● Japan High Speed Rail ElectricEngineering Co., Ltd. acts onbehalf of Employer's Works for
Detailed Design Documents ofElectrical Packages

TechnicalCooperation Projectfor Station Area
Development (SAD)
along selected

January 2023－
December 2026
(Planned)stations of
Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail(MAHSR) project● Capacity building for planningand managing station area
development in state
governments, municipalities andurban development
corporations.

2） Other Donors’ Activity
None in particular(6) Environmental and Social Consideration
1） Category: A2） Reason for Categorization:
This Project falls into the railway sector and has influential characteristics, bothbeing shown in the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(proclaimed in April 2010).
3） Environmental Permit:
Although preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report is
not required under the domestic law in India, it was prepared by the NHSRCL in
July 2015, and an updated version reflecting the subsequent change in the
project plan, etc. was prepared in August 2018.
4） Anti-Pollution Measures:
During construction, air pollution and water pollution concomitant with drillingand construction machine operation are being handled by watering, the use of
dustproof sheets, wastewater treatment plants, etc. Regarding the waste,
excavated soil generated by the tunnel construction is being reused in thesection for the embankment, etc., and the rest of the soil is properly being
disposed of at designated disposal sites. In the section of tunnel construction,
the ground is solid and implementation of appropriate construction methods isplanned to prevent loose ground and the inflow of groundwater; therefore, aserious impact due to ground subsidence is not expected. Regarding noise andvibration concomitant with the blasting work, operation time will be limited tominimize the impact on neighborhoods. With respect to noise, vibration, etc. due
to running cars when in operation, countermeasures such as the installation ofsoundproof walls are being taken to minimize the impact. Regarding thenoise/vibration of the tunnel portion and the elevated portion, it is aimed to be
reduced by the maintenance of the railroad track on a regular basis andcompliance with the speed limit.
5） Natural Environment:
The target area of the Project extends through the core zone and the buffer zoneof Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, the buffer zone of Sanjay Gandhi National
Park, and the buffer zone of Tungareshwar Wildlife Sanctuary. It was confirmedthat Environmental Clearance for development in these was obtained on April 24,
2019. Around the Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, mangrove swamps spreadover flamingos inhabit. The impact on flamingos and the surrounding ecosystems
will be minimized by setting the railroad track to 30 m of an undersea tunnel
section underground. The additionally formulated management plan for theabove three districts will be followed to minimize the impacts. Furthermore,
logging of about 101 ha of forest land and about 29 ha of mangrove forest will be
performed in association with the development of the railyard and the railroad
track, etc. With respect to felling forests, alternative tree planting is performed byForest Department in each state.
6） Social Environment:
The Project involves the land acquisition of about 1,396 ha and relocation of
4,450 households, and they will be proceeded according to the Resettlement
Action Plan based on the domestic laws in India and JICA guidelines. Affected
citizens were given an explanation of the project outline, environmental andsocial consideration policy, compensation policy, etc. through census survey
based on individual visits and residents’ consultations. According to the minutesof the residents’ consultations, no dissenting voice on the Project has been
confirmed in particular. In addition, an indigenous peoples’ plan was created fordesignated tribes residing in target areas, in accordance with the domestic laws
in India and JICA guidelines as well as the results of residents’ consultations,and then the agreements on the implementation of this Project with those tribes

have been confirmed.
7） Other/Monitoring:
During the construction, contractors and monitoring consultants will monitor the
air quality, water quality, noise, vibration, waste, vegetation, ecosystem, etc.
under the supervision of the NHSRCL, and while operating the service, NHSRCL
will monitor the noise, vibration, vegetation, ecosystem, etc. Also, the NHSRCL
will conduct monitoring of resident relocation, land acquisition, and livelihood
recovery support measures. NHSRCL has been reporting each of these results
to JICA.
(7) Cross-Sectoral Issues
1） Climate Change: The Project aims at a modal shift from automobiles,
buses, etc. The estimated GHG emission reductions from the Project (peryear after the full-opening of the Project) are approximately 670,000
tonnes/year (CO2 equivalent), contributing to climate change
measures(mitigation)(secondary objective).
2） Consideration for Disabilities: In accordance with the domestic law of India,
the design of stations and Rolling Stock takes disabled persons into
consideration (i.e. Elevators, escalators, toilet, station announcements,
textured paving blocks to guide the blind, wheelchair spaces).
3） Preventions Measures of Infectious Diseases: NHSRCL has incorporated
provisions requesting contractors to participate in HIV/AIDS prevention
activities in contracts. In addition, as a part of its efforts to prevent the
spread of COVID-19 infection, the executing agency has agreed to
implement a list of measures (36 in total) during the formulation andimplementation of the Project, and clarified the required activities, such as
the development work environments (including preparing epidemic
prevention equipment and promoting the code of conduct), supervision
with respect to epidemic prevention, and awareness-raising campaigns.
The executing agency is supposed to make quarterly reports with respect
to the implementation statuses of the measures so as to ensure that the
impact of COVID-19 is being carefully watched and the executing agency
flexibly and appropriately implement the measures throughout the project
implementation period.

(8) Gender Category: GI(S) (Gender Activity Integration Project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
In the Project, measures will be taken such as the installation of CCTV cameras
in station buildings, toilet for women and breast feeding room in station building
and rolling stock so that women can use the High Speed Rail safely andcomfortably. The Project also plans to provide training for female staff, and it has
been agreed that the number of training sessions for female staff (per year) will
be set as a gender indicator. As in the third phase of the Project, it is expectedthat female staff will continue to be assigned in the supervision of project
implementation. Therefore, it is categorized as a Gender Activity Integration
Project.
(9) Other Important Issues
It is expected that Japanese technologies will be used for Core system packages
such as Rolling Stock, Electrical Equipment, Inspection/Maintenance Car andDepot in the Project.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline

Target(Actual value in2018)[2 years after thecommencement ofcommercial operation]

1. Number of Operations(number/day)－70

2. Passenger Transportation
Volume (million
passengers-km/day)

－

18.04

－

354.0

Indicator

3. Travel Distance(thousand km/day)

4. Transportation Time (minutes)－(Approximately
385 minutes whenusing a127

conventional line
express train)
5. Operating rate (%)

－

87.5

(2) Qualitative Effects
To improve the efficiency of the transportation network for inter-city travel by
providing high frequency mass passenger transport between Mumbai and
Ahmedabad, and to promote broader economic development in the target area.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the following premise, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR)
is about 8.6% and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is about 6.3%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Fuel saving effect, vehicle operation cost reduction effect, travel

time reduction effect, air pollution mitigation effect, accident cost reduction
effect, etc.
Project Life: 50 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses
Benefits: Fare and non-fare incomes (including advertisement revenue andstation development revenue)
Project Life: 50 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions
None in particular(2) External Factors:
Aggravation of political and economic situations in India and the surroundingarea of the project target, as well as natural disasters
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
In similar projects in the Indian railway sector, there have been cases where
third-party organizations not stipulated in the contract were involved in the design
and approval process, which caused delays in decisions by the executing agency
leading to further delays in the projects. In these projects, the contractors andconsultants indicated that the Indian side set unrealistic targets for the opening of
the entire line, and as a result, only construction sections that had been
completed by that time were partially opened.
In this Project, when problems arise that cannot be resolved between thecontracting parties, including the above-mentioned cases, the joint committee
meeting under the co-chairmen representing the governments of Japan and India,
which serves as the highest decision-making body of the Project, technical expert
committee which discuss various issues of the Project from technical aspects andsteering committee where Consultant and Contractor would discuss the progressof work will be held to resolve problems.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project will connect Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, the second largest
city in India, and Ahmedabad (final station: Sabarmati) in Gujarat, the fifth largest
city in India and a rapidly growing commercial and industrial center in recent

years, in about two hours, one-third the time it takes using conventional express
trains. The Project will contribute to the improvement of passenger
transportation capacity and the realization of safe transportation services bydeveloping automatic train control and communication systems and introducing
Rolling Stock for High Speed Rail on Japan's Shinkansen system. This Project isin line with India's development challenges and policies, as well as thecooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA. And there is a strong need tosupport the implementation of the Project as it is considered to contribute to
SDGs Goal 8 "Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth,
full and productive employment and decent work for all"; Goal 9 "Build resilient
infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster
innovation"; Goal 11 "Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilientand sustainable" and Goal 13 " Take urgent action to combat climate change andits impacts".
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Section 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the commencement of commercial
operation
END
Attachment: Map of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail ProjectAttachment
Map of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail Project
Map of India(Created by JICA)

Map of the Project site
(Created by JICA basedon the F/S Survey)