Current Status andFuture Vision of TELES
Dr. Chin-Hsun YEH
Dr. Gee-Yu LIU

NCREE

Presentation Outline

Introduction of TELES and SDST
Early Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE)
Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment(PSRA)
Future Vision of TELES

2012//6/4-5

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Seismic Disaster Simulation Technology

Given a set of seismic source parameters, SDST assess
seismic hazards, damages and losses
Seismic hazards
Ground shaking intensity
Ground failure probability due to soil liquefaction
Permanent ground deformation due to fault rupture, etc.

DamagesDamage of buildings and bridges
Interruption and restoration of lifeline systems
Post-quake fires, debris, etc.

LossesCasualties
Resource needs for rescue, medical-care and shelter
Social impacts and economic losses, etc.
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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Analysis Framework of TELES
NCREE

Database, Analysis Models and Application Software
Earthquake
Potential Earth Science Hazards
Ground Motion

Ground Failure

TsunamiDirect Physical Damages

General Building
StocksEssential
Facilities

Transportation
Systems

Indirect Physical Damages

Fire Following

DebrisUtility
Systems

Socio-economic Losses

Casualties

Shelters

Economic Losses

Indirect Losses
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Specify Seismic Source Parameters

Event date & time
Earthquake magnitude
Epicenter location andfocal depth
Fault rupture length,
width
Dip angle of rupture
plane

2012//6/4-5

Current Status and Future Vision of TELESPGD due tofault rupture5

Estimated PGA in Chi-Chi Earthquake
NCREE

2012//6/4-5

Point source

Shuang-Tung Fault

Arbitrary Fault

Chelongpu Fault

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Liquefaction Susceptibility Category Map
Very highVery high

High

High
淡水鎮

淡水鎮

Moderate

Moderate
Low

Low

萬里鄉

北投區

None

士林區

萬里鄉
萬里鄉

北投區
北投區

Very low

None

士林區
士林區

Undet. 1

汐止鎮
七
蘆洲鄉
蘆洲鄉

中山區松山區
中山區

三重市

三重市 大同區

松山區
南港區

南港區
板橋市

七

內湖區
內湖區

內湖區

蘆洲鄉
蘆洲鄉

Very low萬華區

大安區 信義區

永和市
永和市
中和市
鄉
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文山區

板橋市

萬華區

汐止鎮

大安區 信義區

永和市
永和市
 Collect engineering boreholedata
深坑鄉 Propose operational中和市
definition of liquefaction
文山區
深坑鄉
susceptibility category and semi-empirical formula to鄉assess liquefaction
probability and settlement

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

2012//6/4-5

Est. Liq. Prob. in Chi-Chi Earthquake

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Simulation Results of Tsunami
 Incorporate with Cornell Multi-grid Coupled
Tsunami Model (COMCOT) to assess wave
height and flow depth Overlay with the existing inventory data suchas buildings, bridges and schools to identify
probable disasters caused by tsunami
 Develop early warning system and propose
counter-measures for tsunami hazard

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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Estimated Building Damages in Chi-Chi Earthquake
NCREE

2012//6/4-5

1-3-story: 37,000> 8-story: 180

4-7-story: 3,100

Total: 40,000

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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Estimated Casualties in Chi-Chi Earthquake
NCREE

3,500 death or injuries withlife threatening condition
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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Estimated Damage of Highway Bridges
國
國
11
台
台

台
台
44

Complete damage
完全損壞
完全損壞
Severe damage
嚴重損壞
嚴重損壞
Moderate damage
中度損壞
中度損壞
Slight damage
輕度損懷
輕度損懷
None
無
無

33
國
國

6666
台
台

台
台11

NCREE

台33
台
乙
乙

長安橋
長安橋

竹港大橋
竹港大橋

台77
台

溪洲大橋(後池堰橋)
溪洲大橋(後池堰橋)

關西一號橋
關西一號橋

S-15高架橋
S-15高架橋

新中正橋2
新中正橋2

新中正橋2
新中正橋2
台6
台
6 88

S-16A跨越鐵路高架橋
S-16A跨越鐵路高架橋

湳仔溝一號橋湳仔溝一號橋
南華橋
南華橋

高架橋-10高架橋-10
中隘橋
中隘橋

震央
震央

玄寶大橋
玄寶大橋
台
台1133

台
台
1133
甲
甲

頭份林橋
頭份林橋

竹東大橋
竹東大橋

尖山大橋
尖山大橋

南港溪橋
南港溪橋

珊瑚橋
珊瑚橋
峨嵋橋
峨嵋橋
中港溪橋
中港溪橋
無名橋
無名橋

 M6.8 Hsincheng fault earthquake

錫隘橋
錫隘橋

722

台66
台

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

12Serviceability of I-lan Water System

NCREE

Serviceability Index
0 to 0.1
0.1 to 0.2
0.2 to 0.3
0.3 to 0.4
0.4 to 0.5
0.5 to 0.6
0.6 to 0.7
0.7 to 0.8
0.8 to 0.9
0.9 to 1
1 to 1

頭城鎮

礁溪鄉

員山鄉
三星鄉

宜蘭市壯圍鄉
五結鄉
羅東鎮

冬山鄉
大同鄉
蘇澳鎮

南澳鄉

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

M7.1 off-shore earthquake,
focal depth 20 km, fault
rupture length 84 km
Results from the averageof 100 runs by Monte
Carlo simulations
Identify the worst areas
suffering water outage
Tou-cheng 0.35
Zhuangwei 0.51
Jiao-xi 0.54
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NCREEKey Features of TELES

Integrate GIS-based technology and provide userfriendly graphical interface
Collect and calibrate various kinds of nationwide
inventory databases
Develop standardized and state-of-the-art
methodology for hazard analysis, damage assessment,
loss estimation and risk analysis
Integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information
Release System (TREIRS) of CWB to develop Early
Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE), which can be used inemergency response
Integrate with probabilistic seismic source model todevelop Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment(PSRA) model, which can be used in disaster
reduction, risk spreading and transfer
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NCREE

Some Practical Applications of TELES

ESLE was developed for quick estimation of disaster scale anddistribution soon after strong earthquakes to assist Central
Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) in dispatching rescue,
medical and other resources since 2003
Every county/city government and associated organization use
TELES as a tool to assist in proposing seismic disaster reductionplans and urban disaster reduction systems since 2005
2005-2008, Directorate General of Highways, MOTC adopted
TELES risk assessment model to prioritize the seismic retrofit
sequence of provincial highway bridges
ESLE was applied in Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance
Fund (TREIF) in 2007 and in highway bridges of DGH in 2011
Develop TREIF-ERA to assess premium and PML of residential
earthquake insurance in 2009-2010
Cooperate with Water Resources Agency of MOEA to study post
earthquake performance of potable water systems in Taiwan,
2010-now…
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NCREE

Early Seismic Loss Estimation

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NCREE

Establishment of TSSD (Area Sources)

Scope:
longitude 119°-123°
latitude 21°-26°
Grid size (0.1, 0.2, 0.4)
according to exposureand seismicity
Focal depth
5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55 km
Line source model
Various earthquake
magnitudes and fault
directions
L  exp(1.5483M L  6.8251)
2012//6/4-5

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES(86,835 events)

ML = 5.1, 5.3, 5.5
ML = 5.7, 5.9, 6.1
ML = 6.3, 6.5
5 km
15 km

ML = 6.7, 6.9

25 km
35 km

ML = 7.1, 7.3

45 km
55 km
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NCREE

Establishment of TSSD (Active Faults)
Reference thepublications by Central
Geological Survey
Bureau in 2000 and2010
40 active faults
557 seismic events

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Early Seismic Loss Estimation

CWB has developed TREIRS
Obtain point-source parameters (M, Ex, Ey, D)
within 18.8±3.8 seconds
Send earthquake alerts to all clients

ESLE module of TELES
Auto-trig when receive email from CWB
Obtain estimation results within 2 minutes and autooutput maps and tables
Dispatch short text messages to emergency personnel
and send E-mail to provide more information
More information may be queried on the web-site
http://teles.ncree.org.tw/tesle
Assist in decision-making about starting central orcounty/city EOC and dispatching various kinds ofresources
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Some Remarks of ESLE

It is difficult to obtain accurate source parameters right afterstrong earthquakes
Immediately after earthquake, only point-source parameters (M, Ex,
Ey, D) are obtained from TREIRS. It takes time to obtain faultplane solutions
Fault rupture direction and length are essential to have accurate
estimates, especially for large earthquakes
Applications of ground-motion predication model and/orinterpolation of PGA at real-time stations are not good enough

NCREE’s approach in ESLE
Selects the optimal solutions from pre-calculated database bymatching the simulated PGA with the real-time observed PGA
Adjust magnitude and/or depth if appropriate

Advantages
Error tolerance of source parameters
Provide opportunities to verify analysis models and the associatedparameter values after earthquakes
Provide quantitative information to initiate CEOC and enhance
effectiveness of emergency response
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREEESLE vs. Observed Results

Date (UT)Mag. Depth

X

Y

Bldg. Dmg

Casualty

Ins. Loss

Obs.

Est.

Obs.

Est,

Obs.

Est.

Note

2006/10/9

6.4

47 120.01E 20.75N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2006/12/26

6.7

22 120.56E 21.89N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2006/12/26

6.3

21 120.51E 22.40N

3

72

2

4

0

20.0 屏東佳冬外海1公里

2007/1/25

6.1

5 121.91E 22.86N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0 台東成功外海61公里

2007/9/6

6.6

27 122.43E 24.20N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0 宜蘭南澳外海69公里

2008/6/1

6.8

46 121.77E 19.93N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2008/6/1

6.0

99 121.76E 24.95N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2009/7/13

6.2

9 122.17E 24.07N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0 花蓮秀林外海51公里

2009/8/17

6.4

11 123.30E 23.30N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2009/8/17

6.1

20 123.50E 23.36N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2009/10/3

6.2

15 121.59E 23.66N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0 花蓮豐濱外海10公里

2009/12/19

6.8

46 121.75E 23.78N

>0

6

0

0

0

3.8 花蓮壽豐外海18公里

2010/2/7

6.2

15 123.09E 23.35N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2010/3/4

6.4

5 120.73E 23.00N

25

40

0

1

2.8

2.6 高雄縣桃源鄉

2010/4/26

6.5

20 123.33E 22.52N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

2010/10/4

6.8

60 125.30E 23.75N

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Probabilistic Seismic Risk
Assessment

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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Schematic Diagram of PSRA
Area Source

Scenario
Active Faults Builder

Probabilistic Seismic
Source model

Source Parameters ofSeismic Event

Hazard Analysis
Damage Assessment

Occurrence Rate ofEach Scenario Event

Loss Estimation

Seismic Event Loss Table

Seismic Disaster Simulation Technology

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

NCREE

Risk Assessment and Financial Analysis
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NCREE

Seismic Event Loss Table
Summarize event specific information
 Used for calculation of statistics

1dl



L1

2

dl



…
j

jjjdjljj…
JJJJdJlJJ
magnitude, epicenter
location, focal depth,
rupture length, angle

2012//6/4-5jJannualoccurrence
rates

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

L2
…
Lj
…
LJ
expected
losses










j
J

uncertainty,
standard
deviations


j
J

inventory databaseL

uncertainty analysisseismic source model

Source Parameters

discrete scenariosIDseismic disaster simulation



total
exposures

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NCREE

Average Annual Loss (AAL) & Its
Standard Deviation (STD)
Seismic source models
N

AAL   ( Li  i )
i 1

STD 

 ( L   )  
N

i 1

2

i

2

i

i

Seismic scenario simulation

2012//6/4-5

Lj =expected loss due to scenario earthquake jj =standard deviation of loss due to scenario earthquake j

vj =annual occurrence rate of scenario earthquake j

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Prioritization of Seismic Retrofit ofHighway Bridges

Risk indicator Ir
AAL before retrofit Lc, remaining years before retrofit
Nc, rebuild cost Cb

Lc  N c
0  Ir 
1
Cb

Beneficial indicator Ie
AAL before and after retrofit: Lc, Lr; retrofit cost: Cr;remaining years after retrofit: Nr

Lc  Lr  Cr / N r 
0  Ie 
1
Lc
Importance indicator
Preliminary investigation score2012//6/4-5

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

26

NCREE

Example of Insurance Pricing

Premium = (AAL +  × STD + Fixed
Expenses) / (1 - Variable Expense Factor)
The variable expenses for excess of loss are
typically assumed to be around 10% for
brokerage and 3% for taxes

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NCREE

Future Vision

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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

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NCREE

Current Status of TELES

Collect various kinds of database including
geological condition and exposures to be used in
SDST and PSRA
Propose various kinds of analysis models in
SDST
Balance data quality and model complexity
Develop ESLE to be used in emergency response
Corporate with CWB and CGS to propose
reliable probabilistic seismic source model
Apply PSRA in insurance pricing andprioritization of seismic retrofit of public
facilities
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

29

Family of TELES-related Applications

NCREE

Earthquake
Potential Earth Science Hazards
Ground Motion

TCommonDll

TsunamiDirect Physical Damages

General Building
Stocks

Tgbs

Essential
Facilities

Transportation
Systems

Tschool Thway

Indirect Physical Damages

Fire Following

ESLE
2012//6/4-5

TsunamiTpesh

TelesAppDll
TreaAppDll

Ground Failure

Tsha

DebrisTREIF-ERA

Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

Utility
Systems

Trail Twater Tgas Tpower
Socio-economic Losses

Casualties

Shelters

Economic Losses

Indirect Losses
30

NCREE

Future Vision of TELES

Promote ease of use
Develop customized user-interface for different purpose applications
Each sub-system has the same software architecture, shares the common
library and data management framework
Each sub-system has its own inventory data but also shares some common
geologic and hazard database
Each sub-system run independently. However, they may communicate witheach other when various kinds of data are put in the same project folder
Each sub-system may be maintained by the experts in the field

Collect and update database
Improve precision and content of inventory database, such as address-tocoordinates database and geo-coding algorithm
Integrate with National Geographical Information System (NGIS), which issupervised by the Council for Economic Planning and Development and theMinistry of Interior

Corporate with academia, industry and government to develop analysis
models for disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment
Emphasize the evaluation of post-quake performance of the whole system,
such as network analysis of potable water system under a scenario event
Beside seismic hazards and structural vulnerability, emphasize theassessment of social impacts and economic losses, such as casualty, repair
cost, restoration time, material and man-power, etc
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

31

NCREE

Development of Web-sites for
Seismic Disaster Prevention and Response

Taiwan Seismic Scenario Database (TSSD) Website
Query and display scenario database established by TELES
Query exposure statistics in disastrous region under theselected event and other non-scenario basic information
http://teles.ncree.org.tw/tssd

Taiwan Early Seismic Loss Estimation (TESLE) Website
Query and display ESLE results soon after M≧5 earthquakes
Assist in disaster analysis due to the newly occurred event
http://teles.ncree.org.tw/tesle

Earthquake Disaster Information Upload System (EDIUS)
WebsiteCompile investigation by professionals and information fromgeneral public to build up the disaster database
Query disasters and provide statistical analysis of historicalearthquakes
http://teles.ncree.org.tw/eqsurvey

Thank You for Attention
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Current Status and Future Vision of TELES

32