New Ultra-Sensitive Radioa
New Ultra-Sensitive
RadioanTechnologies
for New
Scien__________________________________________________________________

Technologies for New Scien

Isotopes as tracers of climate change:
atmosphere-biosphere-ocean studies
Pavel P. Povinec
Pavel P. Povinec

Comenius
University, Bratislava
Pavel
Povinec
Comenius University, Bratislava

Slovakia
Slovakia
Comenius University, Bratislava,
Slovakia

Nuclear Isotopic Technology and Climate Change
FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)
Hevesy&Medal&Award&Lecture,&APSORC17,&&Jeju,&18&Sept

Hevesy&Medal&Award&Lecture,&APSORC17,&&Jeju,&18&Sept.,1Isotopes__________________________________________________________________

Stable (2H/H, 13C/12C, 15N/14N, 18O(16O,…)
Radioactive
Natural
Cosmogenic (3H, 10Be, 14C, 36Cl,…)
Primordial (40K, 232Th, 238U, …)Radiogenic (222Rn, 226Ra, 210Pb,…)
Anthropogenic (3H, 14C, 90Sr, 129I, 137Cs, Pu,…)

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)222Isotope Tracers__________________________________________________________________

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

2H – transport of air & water masses, exchange processes

atmosphere-biosphere, atmosphere-hydrosphere,...
13C – exchange processes, tracing fossil carbon,...
18O – atmosphere-hydrosphere exchange, groundwater,seawater, past temperature records in ice,...
3H - (T
1/2 = 12.32 y), water molecule (HTO) – transport of water
masses, water daNng...
10Be - (T6
1/2 = 1.39×10 y), aerosols, stratosphere-troposphereocean transport, ice cores, sediments...
14C – (T
1/2 = 5730 y), stratosphere-troposphere exchange, fossil
carbon record in the atmosphere – biosphere - ocean,
atmosphere-ocean exchange,...
137Cs – (T
1/2 = 30.17 y), mostly dissolved in seawater – processes
in the water column, transport of water masses...
... and many other stable and radioacNve isotopes...

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

333

Isotope Tracing of the Environment__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

444Timing__________________________________________________________________• ANTHROPOCENE epoch (>1945 present) - a new epocha>er the HOLOCENE epoch (10 ky)• INDUSTRIAL era (150 years) – carbon, nitrogen, sulfur
oxides, metals, organics,...
• NUCLEAR era (70 years) – anthropogenic radionuclides,
nuclear bomb tests, global fallout, nuclear industry,
nuclear accidents,...
• COSMIC era (50 years) – satellites, moon, garbage in thespace ,...
Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

555

Energy vs. Environment__________________________________________________________________• New Philosophy : EGOCENTRIC vs. ECOCENTRIC approach: protection of thetotal environment – man, fauna, flora• CLIMATE CHANGE – anthropogenic vs. natural processes, global impacts,
politically driven science ?
• NUCLEAR acceptance by public ? – Chernobyl & Fukushima impacts, radioactive
wastes• RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES – sustainable for global development? BRICS
countries, new world - thirsty for the energy, a new industrialization revolution– the east and south neads own revolution...

Large energy
consumption
growth rates
after the 1945s

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)66 6

World Energy Mix__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

777

US Energy Mix__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

888Japan Energy Mix__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

999

Coal Consumption__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

10
10 10

Annual CO2 Emissions__________________________________________________________________New industrial
revolution

Fig. 11. 12-month change of global atmospheric CO2 concentration (NOAA, green), and the change in release of CO2 from burning of fossil fuels (CDIAC, reing monthly values of DIFF12, the difference between the average of the last 12 month and the average for the previous 12 months for each data series

DIFF12 changes 11 months earlier. However, this is opposite to what
would be expected if changes in anthropogene CO2 had signiﬁcant
impact on changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2.
However, on shorter time scales the relation is highly variable as
the two panels b and c in Fig. 13 show. Dividing the entire observation
period into the two sub-periods 1980–1998 and 1998–2011 yields a
different result as to the correlation between DIFF12 changes inanthropogene CO2 and DIFF12 changes in global atmospheric CO2(panel a). For the period 1980–1998 the correlation is found to bepositive for the period at and following release, while it becomes negative for the time window 1998–2011. A positive correlation would
indeed be expected, if changes in the release of anthropogene CO2
were controlling changes in atmospheric CO2. It is however contrary
to expectation that the maximum positive correlation is found
1 month before the time of release (Fig. 15, panel b).
This demonstrates that the relation between changes in the release of CO2 from anthropogene sources and changes in atmospheric
CO2 is not stable, but undergoes signiﬁcant changes on a decadal
time scale. Had changes in the release of anthropogene CO2 represented the main control on changes in atmospheric CO2, the relation
would be stable. A possible explanation for the unstable correlation
might be due to the combined El Niño–La Nino event 1997–2001,

affecting the two investigated sub periods (Fig.
other possible explanation was provided by Njau
that anthropogene CO2 has so far been added to t
amount which would have otherwise been add
cially by the warming oceans, had the emissio
CO2 been absent. However, a detailed analysis ofsibilities falls beyond the present investigation, aconclude that the absence of a stable, positive
other processes than the emission of anthropo
the main features of the observed changes in atm
Summing up, our analysis suggests that change
appear to occur largely independently of changemissions. A similar conclusion was reached bsuggesting a coupling between atmospheric CO
Oscillation. However, by this we have not demonleased by burning fossil fuels is without inﬂuen
atmospheric CO2, but merely that the effect isthe effect of other processes. Our previous ansuch other more important effects are related twith ocean surface temperature near or soupointing itself out as being of special importancglobal amount of atmospheric CO2.

BRICS countries
Brasil, Russia,
India, China,
South Africa

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

11
1111

Fig. 12. Latitudinal 1990 summary of CO2 emissions from anthropogene sources. Data source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenteCO2 & CH4 Growth in the Air__________________________________________________________________

CH4(>1983)

CO2 Keeling curve(>1958)414 ppm

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

12
12 12

Temperature Records__________________________________________________________________
Temperature growth >1981
1940-1980 temperature
decrease

Medieval Warm Period
1200-1350yr

CO2 @ 280 ppm

Little Ice Age (1350-1900 yr)

Mann et al., GRL 26(1999)759-762

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

13

Ice Core Temperature Records (<800 kyr)__________________________________________________________________
125 kyr
Holoceneanomaly

Vostok Antarctica Ice Core, < 420 kyr
HOLOCENE temp. anomaly !!!
CO2 follows temperature changes !!!
125 kyr Milankovitch cycle(Petit et al., Nature, 399 (1999) 429-436)

EPICA Antarctica Ice Cores, < 800 kyr
HOLOCENE temp. anomaly confirmed
Very good agreement during 400 kyr(Milankovitch cycles)

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

14
14

14

Milankovitch Cycles in Sun-Earth Relations__________________________________________________________________
Obliquity (41 kyr)Eccentricity (95, 125, 400 kyr)Longitude of perihelion
Precession (19, 22, 24 kyr)Solar forcing (variable)

Mostly affecting the Pleistocene
epoch (< 1 M yr)

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

15
15 15

Recent Arctic Sea Ice Cover Changes__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

16
16 16

Sea Lever Rise__________________________________________________________________

Modern era:
< 3 mm/year

e observations of sea level rise since 1993 (NASA)

Pavel Povinec
verly Ohio

Holocene(<8000 yr):almost stable

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

17
1717

Summary on Climate Changes__________________________________________________________________

PAST CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE EARTH WERECONTROLLED BY THE SUN
HOLOCENE : too high temperature during 10 kyr - Sun
Recent climate change : anthropogenic – green-housegases
Next 100 years: - anthropogenic – green house gases ?
- natural – solar activity, a new Little Ice
Age ?
- a combination of both ?
Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

18
18

18

IPCC Summary on Climate Change(Radiative Forcing)__________________________________________________________________> 1750 AD
Anthropogenic
CO2: 1.7 W/m2
CH4+others: 1
Ozone: 0.3
Aerosols: 0.6
Total: 1.6 W/m2
NaturalSolar irradiance:
0.1 – 0.3 W/m2
(may be higher withsecondary effects)
Water vapours?
The maingreenhouse gas !!!
Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

19
19 19

Little Ice Age (Maunder Solar Minimum)

REPORTS__________________________________________________________________

Fig. 1. Surface temperature change (in °C) from 1780 to 1680 in the GCM. NH annual average(left) and November to April NH extratropics (right) are shown. Nearly all points are
statistically significant (not shown) because of the large number of model years. Data for all
figures are available as Online supplemental material (40).

of 44°C, extending to the area off Newfoundland (23), which is consistent with a reduced
NAO but not with uniform basin-wide cooling. Other evidence suggests colder North
Atlantic temperatures during those centuries,
however, including evidence for increased
sea ice around Iceland (24), a region of minimal change in the GCM.
Our previous studies have demonstrated
how external forcings can excite the AO/
NAO in the GISS GCM (22, 25). Briefly, themechanism works as follows, using a shift
toward the high-index AO/NAO as an example: (i) tropical and subtropical SSTs warm,
leading to (ii) a warmer tropical and subtropical upper troposphere via moist convective
processes. This results in (iii) an increased
latitudinal temperature
gradient at around 100
Shindell et al., Science,
294, 2001
to 200 mbar, because these pressures are in
the stratosphere at higher latitudes, and so do
not feel the surface warming (26). The temperature gradient leads to (iv) enhanced lower

P. Povinec
Pavel
Povinec

20

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021,(online)20
Fig. 2. The leading EOF ofTokyo
NH extratropicalNovember-to-April SLP over the last 40 years of the20

R150Z a)

Solar Cycles (11, 22 & 90 yr)

100__________________________________________________________________

Sunspot numbers with time – Schwabe 11 yr solar cycle(Wolf > 1610)

50
0
1600
200

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

b)

R150g
100
50

Centennial
Gleissberg Cycle
90-100 yr

0
-50

-12

-10

MM

-4

0

4

DM 8

12

16

20

Pavel1:Povinec
FNCA (since2021,
TokyoWolf(online)FigureSunspot numbers since 1610. a) Monthly
1749)3-4/3/2021,
and yearly (1700–1749)
sunspot

21
2121

Cosmic Rays vs Solar Activity__________________________________________________________________

8

Page 2 of 17

E. Ross, W.J. Chaplin

Sunspot numbers

GLOBAL HELIOSPHERIC PARAMETERS AND COSMIC-RAY MODULATION

401

Data from several neutron
monitors anticorrelated with solar
activity
Figure 1
SSN (top), with vertical lines showing the beginning of each solar cycle. CR intensity recorded by
NMs (bottom), with vertical lines showing the approximate epochs of solar magnetic-field polarity reversals.
(MCMD = McMurdo, NEWK = Newark, SOPO = South Pole, THUL = Thule).

Modulation potential of Sun on
Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR)

all directions (Giacalone, 2010). They mainly originate outside the solar system, within the
Milky Way; however, they are also expected to originate from other galaxies (Aab et al.,2017). GCRs at the top of the atmosphere are mostly composed of protons (≈ 87%) and
α -particles (≈ 12%), with a smaller contribution (≈ 1%) from heavier nuclei (Dunai, 2010).
When cosmic rays (CRs) enter the atmosphere, they interact with atmospheric atoms andproduce cascades of secondary particles, which at ground level are primarily neutrons andmuons. Neutron monitors (NMs) and muon detectors (MDs) located at different locations
on Earth have been used since the 1950s to observe GCRs. Information on GCRs prior tothe modern epoch of NMs and MDs, and the space age, rely on the studies of cosmogenic
isotope records from ice cores and tree rings (Owens and Forsyth, 2013).
It has long been established that there exists an anti-correlation between GCR intensity
and the level of solar activity over a cyclic 11-year period, with perhaps some time lag(Forbush, 1958; Parker, 1965; Usoskin et al., 1998; Van Allen, 2000). Figure 1 clearly shows
the anti-correlation between GCRs and sunspot number (SSN).

Neutron monitor data GCR flux In the atmosphere

Ross & Chaplin, Solar Phys. 294, 2019; Alanko-Huotari et al., Solar Phys., 238, 2006

gure 5. (a) Monthly values of the tilt angle (α): solid line depicts the actual data, while the small
rcles corresponds to the model α cycle (see Equation (9)). (b) Modulation potential (φ): actual values
e depicted by the solid line, while the small circles and grey lines correspond to the reconstrucons, based on the model α cycle, by means of the power-law and quasi-linear regression models,
spectively. (c) Count rate of the Climax NM: actual is shown by the solid line, while the count rate

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

22
2222

Sun-Earth Impacts__________________________________________________________________
Solar modulation of thegalactic cosmic ray
flux in the heliosphereand on the Earth
Solar wind
11-yr, 22-yr, 90-yr…
solar cycles
Already detail
Information on
Sun – Earthimpacts is avaiable

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

23
2323

Cosmogenic Radionuclides__________________________________________________________________
Produced by interactionsof CRs with atmosphere(3H, 14C, 7Be, 10Be,
26Al, 36Cl, 53Mn, 129I,…)
As GCR are modulated bySun, they can be used forsolar activity studies
If stored in archives (treerings, ice, sediments,corals,
stalactites/stalagmites),
they can be used for pastsolar activity studies

Pavel
P. Povinec
Povinec

FNCA
FNCA 2021,
2021, 3-4/3/2021,
3-4/3/2021, Tokyo
Tokyo(online)(online)24
24 24

14C in Wine Samples (1909-1952)__________________________________________________________________

Solar
flare
event
Suess effect(14C decrease due tofossil fuel combustion)

14C(t) and W(t) rows for four 11-yr solar cycles (1909-1952)
14C amplitude variations: 3.3-5.6 %o for different solar cycles (average 4.3 ± 1.1 %o )Time shift between W maxima and 14C minima: 3.5-5 yr (depending on the solar cycle)
Burchuladze, Povinec et al., Nature 287, 1980

P. Povinec
Pavel
Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

25
25 25

4C series used in the analysis were obtained from tree rings of a lime
Tilia cordata) that grew in a non-industrialized area (48° 51' N, 21° 10'
described by Povinec (1977). The accuracy of a single measurement
al to 3%o.

14C in Tree-rings (1900-1954)__________________________________________________________________RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

l4C
Variations
Naturalvalues in tree rings from 1901-1950, together
igure 1 shows input
data series after correction for the Suess effect. The sunspot record
shown.
262
14C

014C,

%o

Q

14

0.6

/'

+

04

Suess effect W/NES f(140.2
C decrease due to.T ,"cfossilfuel combustion)

12

TREE

rR/NGS

10

i

\\.

W
1

0

200

8

4
6

-02
It
100

-0.4

2
-06

6

/0

.10

0

18
2
1950
U
YEAR
4C record in tree-ring samples for the last century (upper curve); after
corrections for
the Suess
2.
Fig
10,5y
Fig 1. Autocorrelation func-

2

1910
The Bratislava zX14C Tree-Ring
Record

1920
841

1930

14

6

1940

P(f)

ower curve); sunspot record is shown for comparison (dotted curve)

Cyclogram analysis:arll+l yr,

n

23y

n

11-year%&&





#"

C amplitude: 2.5±0.5%
Phase shift: 3-5 yr

periodestimation of( 

'

at

the

e14C (t)95%

confidence

and

(t)

/4

l8

n

Spectrum estimationofe14C(t)Comparison of C ( wines
and tree-rings) and W(sunspot numbers,
anticorrelated) time series

stationary
8,8ytions r(U) of stationary time
L14C andW(t).
series.
powerofsunspot
igure 2 shows calculated
spectratreeand(wine ande14C(t)vows
by Wtheas indicatedare peculiar periodicities
forappearing in the(t)peak
andring samples)
peak at 10.5 yr. In the powera. The sunspot record shows a dominantvalues Uwinee"
gumentwe can identify essentially 3 important freum of the L14C series,
26ys?yUW might= 10±1
12±1
Utreea14 at yrbe associatedthe mainx peak
8.8 andy bands, 1 aroundyr that
o
yr.
$.

/0

rows

time

interval.

rows
14

The

spectrumis shown in figure 2.

&(''#'!%#%'%!&#(&)
 '''$&***!%#%#%'%!&WThebasic power of the spectra is concentrated at the period, 11of anticorrelation between the sunspot
The existence
years.
100
50
14C function has been confirmed by correlationandfunctionFig 2. Power spectra from the z"C record (solid line) and sunspot record (dotted line). In order to avoidof moreobtained by computing the amplitude of Correlation
obtainedside lobes due to the length of the record, the spectra have beencoefficients haveanalysis.
Povinecbeen
et al., Radiocarbon
25, 1983
al.,Radiocarbon
31, 1989
first interval.
the data reduced to theet
theAttolini,sine wave best fitted toPovinec
than - 0.6.
1
26
The results of the harmonic analysis are given in tablewith the peak of 10.5 yr of the sunspot series, and 2 more bands, ca 5.2 and26
amplitude
3rd harmonic of 10.5 yr. The 3 analysis enables the determination of the
2.6 yr, that might be considered the 1st andHarmonic

c/256yP. Povinec
Pavel
Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

26

14C Bomb Effect__________________________________________________________________

wine

atmosphere

Kontuľ et al., JRNC 318, 2018

Burchuladze, Povinec et al., Radiocarbon, 1988
1600
Jaslovske Bohunice daily/weekly data

1400

Zlkovce daily/weekly data
Zlkovce, maximum surface concentration

1200

Bratislava daily/weekly data
Bratislava monthly data
Zlkovce monthly data

1000
D 14C[‰]

Jungfraujoch

800
600
400
200
0

Povinec et al., JER 100, 2009

Pavel Povinec

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

Year

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

1974

1973

1972

1971

1970

1969

1968

1967

-200

Povinec et al, JER 108, 2012

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

27
27
27

nt
nd

however, differences. For
R. Muscheler
et al. / Quaternary
Science Reviews 26(2007)
82–97 effect)93
C into theatmosphere(counteracting
the
Suess
1000
modulation exhibits stronandthebudgetof
thisbomb-produced
radiocarbon
isthe 10Be deposition in Greenland and/or intime. In addition, we include the 10Be data where wethe solar modulation reco
uncertain (Joos, 1994).
. The observed climate changes in the northern
removed one ‘‘outlier’’ at each point in time and that weshort-term variations are
fi14
e have been considerably larger than in thenormalised to the C record shown in Fig. 10. Again,
we500
individual 10Be records sho
oemisphere during the last century.
use the Yang et al. geomagnetic field record for this
14 The general
to local changes in 10Be
4.2. Modellingthe isCconsistentproductioncalculation.
rate
ly increasedwithhydrologic activity
example,the record fromR. Muscheler et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (2007)
82–97
snow, less aerosols and consequently reducedWithcarboncycle
modelsit is possible
to reconstructthedisagreementwith otherentrations.
Therefore,
it seems
likelythat 10Be
of
7. Comparison
with the sunspot
records
0
14(b)
C production
rateartefacts.
from tropospheric
D14C data (Stuiverincomplete time coverageents in Greenland
contain climateThisng
reduced data / Yang et al. / global
2 to systemonfirmed
by our method to remove ‘‘outliers’’ inMore than 150 yr ago Rudolf Wolf startedof the records can add
hreduced data / Yang et al.
1000
10
ed
curve.
Part
of
the
Be
data
from
Dye3
is
polar bias
atically
reconstructthepastchangesinsunspot
number.
20
averaged record. Since wea(a) Northerny this procedure during the second part of the
Hoyt and Schatten (1998) proposed an improved (a)record toeach point in time we didy.
Hemispherery and we obtain10a better(IntCal04)
agreement with theestimate the past changes in sunspot number, theaveraged
so-called 10Be record
between the records for oal14
neutron and C record (see Fig. 10). Nevergroup sunspot number. The Wolf sunspot number and the500
reduced 10Be record an10
esreconstruction of 0past changes in solar activity
group sunspot number agree well for the last 100 yr but the Be record (without "outlier")suggested by Field et al. (nge records for thelast century will remaingroup sunspot number indicates lower solar-10
1.5activity before
between our 14C and 10B
al.
c as long as the causes of these differences arethat period (Fig. 11a)7000(Hoyt and Schatten, 1998). The
10
tood.
me
Be record we obtain a r-20
sunspot numbers are connectedto the magnetic activity on
6000
0
5000
ollowing
section we compare our radionuclidethe Sun’s surface, whichis assumed to correlate with
the
1400
1000
2000
1600
1200
1800
ts
activity (due to the Dye3
4000
Hemisphere(b)mate of solar -30
modulation
withSouthernalternative
open magnetic flux (Solanki
et al., 2000). Therefore,
Age [AD]ofcombined 14C and neu
3000(SHCal04)
ofUnless stated otherwise, we will
according to this model
2000a close relationship between
tysolar activity. 360
comparison with the 14C
9. Changes in the solar modulation function during the last 1000 yr
ost likely estimates of solar modulation. These
1000
sunspot numbers and 10
Be and 14C records Fig.
is expected.
e10
can improve the 10Be-bas
14340
14 from theinferred
Be records. The black curve in panel a is calculatedon the globally averaged D C data normalized
1
Fig. 11b shows the 0comparison of ourC-based10"1y,and by assuming that t
from thelow-pass
filtered Be concentration (ncutoff ¼ 1=20 yr ) includ320 of solar modulation fromloon-borne estimate
reconstruction of the solar modulation function
and
the
10
ts AD. We include the Yang
Be data. The grey band shows the 1"s errors that are based onenhancement of the solar
50
et al. geomagnetic(c)group sunspot number. As already pointed ing
out allby Stuiver
300
the uncertainties in the averaged 10Be record and the geomagnetic field.
dalsince it encompasses the Korte and Constable
In the perspective ofandBraziunas(1993)
there
is
a
high
agreement
of
the
280
The red curve shows the solar modulation based on the averaged 10Be
is
ic field estimate for most of the investigatedchanges in the 14C production rate and changes in sunspots
warming of the 20th centrecord and the alternative estimate for the global geomagnetic dipole
260 our average value for solar
his could mean thatld
number associated with the solar 11-yr cycle.
Thischanges in solar activity(b) (Korte
momentand Constable, 2005). The blue curve is calculated from
1800
2000
1000
1200
n is generally slightly
too lowfurther 1400
back in 1600
comparison also shows that the 11-yr cycle
continued
10We
following we investigate ithe reducedBe
average
(blue
curve
in
Fig.
8)
using
the
Yang
et
al.
0.5
Camp Century
Age [AD]lygeomagnetic field data. Panel b shows the differences between therecords during this per
10200
GRIP, that
Summitassumption
the average Be record shows global changes and if wes.
Fig. 3. Evolution of atmospheric 14C (a), fossil CO2 emissions (b)measuredin the Greenla
Milcent
includethe results of Field et al. that suggest that 10Be in polar regions
od(Marland (a)et al., 2003) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (c) (Etheridge
values of solar activity du
Wolf sunspot number
shows
a
20%
enhancementinsolar-induced
variability.
Dye 3
et al., 1996 ). Panel a shows two records from the northern hemisphereto150
century (Beer et al., 1(black and dark grey (Reimer et al., 2004; Stuiver and Braziunas, 1993;
Dome Cts
concentrations measured
Stuiver et al., 1998) and a record from the southern hemisphere
Southpoleer
Pole do not show this tre(McCormac et al., 2004). The fossil CO2 emissions represent an input of
100
14
st
1200
1600
2000
1800
1000
1400
C-free (‘‘dead’’) carbon into the atmosphere that partly causes the D14C
The
question is, therefore,
drop in the first part of the 20th century (Suess effect).
1500
Age [AD]
record for this period whe
50
disagree? Additional 10B
Fig. 8. Averaged 10Be concentration and the cores on which the averaged values are based on. The confirm
black curvea show
thein panel
discrepancy
basedTheon 10red
Be curve shows 14
including the standard deviations of the mean values.
the low-pass filtered 10Be concentration(ncutoff¼ 1=20yAntarctic 10Be
data.
Unpu
based on C
0
10
1000
1400
which periods the individual
cores contributeto the average 10Be record. The blue curve show the low-passfiltered
Be concentratio
GISP2
ice coreseem tobased on 14C
10group sunspot number
where
we, at each point
withNishi
the m
Be disagreement
record (K.
& balloon-borne
norm.
1200in time, removed one value from the averaging procedure that had the strongest
150(b)Furthermore, unpublished1000
obtained at Summit, Gre
800
500
100
decrease in 10Be depositio
approach would 600
yield negative values of F for several
means that the atmosphericcirculationfrom the South
Pole. Th
periods
of
low
solar
activity
during
the
last
1000
yr
which
tivelywellintheatmosphere.
Conseqagrees
with
the
data
from
400
50
10
10thatYiouinferred(2004) mention
points to a residual
climatic
signalintheaveraged
modulation
function
from
Be
Be
200
0
from Dome
C. To summa
14not
10
1400
1000 20th1200
1800 scheme
2000 is1600 mixing
recordforthesecondpartofthecentury(remark:very
differentfrom00Greenland that show a re
[AD]
1700
1750
1800
1850second
1900
1950
1650
1600
part
of2000the 20th century refers to the Ageperiodon the initial assumption
a globally
deposition ofduringthe sec
Age [AD]
10
10
Muenster
&
Beer,
JGR,
2012
Fig.
10.
Comparisonof thesolar
modulation
functionbased onFig.
Be (grey
1950–1985
AD
since
none
of
the
signal.
9b
shows
the
consequencesfoBe
records
extends
toThreerecords
from
Antar
14
and
parison of sunspot number records with 14C-based changes in the solar modulation function. Panel a shows the Wolf and curve)
the group
sunspot
10 C (black curve). Both curves show the solar modulation
1028 suggests thThis difference!1
14we normalised the"1function.
If
weassumethattoday).
Thus
Be
recordaccording
to
Be
shows
su
smoothed lines show the low-pass filtered (1/20 yr ) data. Panel b shows the comparison of the C and neutron monitor-based
function(balloonafter low-pass filtering at a cut-off frequency of 1/20 yr . The
28 regions
least one of these14
olar modulation function with the group sunspot number.
curves are obtained by normalisation to the balloon-borne data andsolar modulation functio

14

ARTICLE
Solar Modulation of 14
C &IN10PRESSBe

Pavel Povinec

solar modulation function [MeV]

solar modulation function [MeV]

10Be concentration [normalised]solar modulation function [MeV]sunspot number

atmospheric CO2
concentration [ppmv]

CO2 emissions [109kg/yr]∆14C [‰]__________________________________________________________________

14C – (n,p)
reaction
10Be - spallation

Comparison ofSolar modulation
funcion based on
C and Be
data

FNCA
2021,
3-4/3/2021,
Tokyoagreement(online) signal the amplitude of the solar
28 modC-basedF reconstruction
to obtaintheReconstruction of Solar Irradiance Based on
Sunspots and 14C Levels__________________________________________________________________
50BC

450AD

cal BC
950AD

2000

Sunspots

IntCal20
1 yr resolution
for 1000 yr

14

C BP

1500

Wolf

1000

G

SpörerMaunder

500

Gleissberg

Dalton2000

Bard & Frank, EPSL 248, 2006

1950AD
IntCal20
IntCal13

1500

1000
cal BP

500

Reimer et al., Radiocarbon, 62, 2020

Grand Solar Minima
Maunder minimum (1645-1715) ; Spörer minimum (1416-1534); Wolf minimum (1282-1342);
Dalton minimum (1798-1822) ; Gleissberg minimum (1889-1901)
Pavel Povinec

0

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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Reconstruction of the Solar Activity
10Be in GRIP Ice Core
From
Reconstruction of SSNs_________________________________________________________________NGRIP 10Be data
F. Inceoglu et al.

Reconstructed sunspot numbers

Inceoglu et al., Solar Phys., 2014
Figure 5

The top panel shows the resulting ellipse-modeling reconstruction of group SSN, using data that

−1 (see text), and the observed group SSNs forwere low-pass-filtered withFNCA
a cut-offfrequencyof (1/9) year
Pavel Povinec
2021,
3-4/3/2021,
Tokyo(online)30

the time period between 1755 – 1985. The bottom panel shows reconstructed and observed SSNs for the time

14C and 10Be in ice cores (<9400 yr)__________________________________________________________________
A
A

B

B

C

C

D

D

Steinhilber et al., PNAS, doi/10.1073/pnas.1118965109

14
10 Be in
Cartoon someillustratingof the radionuclides
14 C and 10 Be inC andustratingbasics someof thebasics
radionuclides
th’s system. Both radionuclides are produced in a very similar way by
31
Both radionuclides are produced in a very similar way by
Fig. 2. Radionuclide records used 10
for this study. 10 Be31
concentrar reactions of cosmic ray particles with the atmospheric gases Fig.
(3). After
2. Radionuclide records used for this study. Be concentration
records
14of cosmic ray particles with the atmospheric gases (3). After

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

3114C IntCal2020 (tree rings, corals,…)

and 10Be (ice cores)

J Reimer
et al.
_________________________________________________________________

a

50000

40000

30000

H5

H4

H3

20000
H2

H1 YD

–5

cal BC
48050

–35

Warm
Holo- –40
cene

IntCal20
IntCal13

50000

–45

49500

b

800
600

c

0.4

10Be

d

0.2

48500

48000

47500

47000

400

14C

200
0

C BP

0.6

14

10

Be flux

49000

15

∆14C

0

10

Palaeomag intensity

0
5

10000

NGRIP δ18O

Hulu δ18O

–10

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

14C calibration curve

50 – 55 kyr (maxim.)

46500

0

55000

cal BP

54000

53000
52000
cal BP

51000

50000

Reimer et al., Radiocarbon, 62, 2020

Figure 5 a) Hulu Cave δ18O (in gray, Cheng et al. 2016); NGRIP δ18O (in black, North
Greenland Ice Core Project members 2004) with GICC05 timescale multiplied by 1.0063 as afirst order correction to the offset between GICC05 and the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS)

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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Beagle 2003/04) – Round the Globe expedition(JAMSTEC)__________________________________________________________________
14C and 137Cs BEAGLE/SHOTS data

Increased salinity levels in bottom
waters between WOCE´95 and BEAGLE

Special Issue Progress in Oceanography, 2012:
Aoyama et al., Kumamoto et al., Hirose et al., Povinec et al.

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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3H, 14C, 129I in the South Indian Ocean(ANTARES IV__________________________________________________________________

CO2 sequestration - Bottom water formation - OCEANS CONTROL THE CLIMATE !!

Povinec et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 2014

Pavel Povinec

Broecker, Climate Change, 1995

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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Expected Climate Changes
in this Century__________________________________________________________________

Anthropogenic vs. Solar effects(cosmic rays, aerosols, ozone, CLOUD experiment in CERN)
Further grows of green house gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, fluorinated gases)
and aerosols – also health effects – millions of people are dying per year due toatmospheric pollution

Further problems:
Anthropogenic: Deforestation, Land use
Natural: Volcanic eruptions, Astronomical effects, El Niño/ENSO, AMO
Permafrost ???
Green house gases vs. past climate changes
Growing (or stable temperature) vs. e.g. Little Ice Age
The end of the Holocene warm epoch ???
Will the Anthropocene continue as a warm epoch ???
P. Povinec
Pavel
Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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IPCC Predictions__________________________________________________________________

Pavel Povinec

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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Future Solar Activity Cycles_____________________________________________
Grand Solar Activity Minima
Wolf minimum 1282-1342
Spörer minimum 1416-1534
Maunder minimum 1645-1715
WE NEED MORE INFORMATION
ON PAST SOLAR ACTIVITYCYCLES – THE ROLE FOR
14C and 10Be RADIOISOTOPES
Solar cycle 25

New 11-yr solar cycle started !!!
What about the next one ?
Will be soon there Super Grand Solar
Activity Minimum, similar to Maunderminimum ???

Acknowledgments__________________________________________________________________
M. Aoyama, Uni. Tsukuba; T. Aramaki, JAERI, Mutsu; W. Burnett, Uni. Tallahassee; A.Cherkinski,
Uni. Georgia; K. Fifield, ANU, Canberra; Y. Hamajima, Uni. Kanazawa; K. Hirose, Uni. Sophia,
Tokyo; T. Honda†, MIT, Tokyo; G.H. Hong, KORDI, Seoul; M. Hotchkis, ANSTO, Sydney; X. Hou,
Tech. Uni. Denmark, Risoe; Y. Ikeuchi, JCAC, Chiba; T. Ito, JAERI, Tokaimura; C. Jeandel, Uni.
Toulouse; A.J.T. Jull, Uni. Arizona, Tucson; W. Keiser, Uni. Ottawa; Y. Kumamoto, JAMSTEC,
Yokosuka; M. Laubenstein, LNGS, Assergi
S.-H. Lee, KRISS, Daejeon
G. Lujaniene, Center PST, Vilnius
M. Molnár, ATOMKI, Debrecen
U. Morgenstern, IGNS, Lower Hutt
T. Nakanishi, Uni. Tokyo
M. Nakano, JAERI, Tokaimura
H. Nies, BSH, Hamburg
S. Nisi, Gran Sasso, Assergi
L. Palcsu, INR, Debrecen
S. Shima, JMSF, Mutsu
P. Steier, Uni. Vienna
I. Svetlik, Inst. Nucl. Phys., Prague
M. Taniguchi, RIHN, Kyoto
Y. Tateda, CRIEPl, AbikoF. Terrasi, Uni. Naples
CENTA team, Uni. Bratislava
O. Togawa, JAERI, Tokaimura
G. Ustinova, GEOKHI, Moscow
European Structural Funds
Z. Top, Uni. Miami(Projects # 120012, 120026, 220004, ACCORD)
Uni. Bratislava; IAEA-EL, Monaco;
LSM, Modane; LNGS Assergi; CERN,
Geneva;JINR, Dubna; UNESCO, Paris

Author,conference...
Pavel Povinec

International Atomic Energy Agency(Projects # SLR/008 and SLR/1001, RER 7014)
APVV (Projects # 15-0576, 16-0148)
VEGA (Projects # 1/0108/08, 1/0891/17, 1/0783/14, 1/0421/20)

FNCA 2021, 3-4/3/2021, Tokyo (online)

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