Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link Project (II)Loan Agreement: March 27, 2020
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector in India
In recent years, in India, while urbanization has progressed rapidly, public
transport infrastructure has not been fully developed, and therefore, traffic
congestion has become increasingly serious in urban areas, hindering economic
development. In India, roads are responsible for 85.2% of passenger transport
and 62.9% of freight transport, and the Three-Year National Action Plan (April2017 to March 2020) formulated by the National Institution for Transforming
India (NITI Aayog) cites transport as the top priority for achieving economic
development, stating that the government will work to develop transport
infrastructure, including roads.
Mumbai and its vicinities constitute India’s largest urban area with a populationof some 18.4 million (as of 2011), and Mumbai, its center, is one of the world’s
most densely populated cities (population density: 20,694 persons/km²). In
addition, with the rapid urbanization in recent years, the number of cars
registered in the City increased sharply from 1.39 million in 2006 to 2.82 million
in 2016 (source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways’ Road Transport Year
Book (2015-16)). Taking into consideration that there was little room for further
development in Mumbai as it is located at the tip of a peninsula, the state
government of Maharashtra has transferred industries located in Mumbai to
Navi Mumbai, which is situated on the other side of Mumbai Bay, and attracted
new industries there in an effort to promote wider economic development in theurban area. At the same time, it has worked to expand the Jawaharlal Nehru Port,
which handles one of the largest amounts of freight in India (4.83 million TEU(2017-18); source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust’s website) and advanced urban
development projects, including the development of economic special districts
and the construction of a new Navi Mumbai airport. However, the only means oftransport between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai consists of one road and one

Japanese ODA Loan

railway, both of which go around the bay, and the low connectivity between thetwo cities is becoming an issue to be addressed, and this problem is expected tobecome even more serious in the future.
For this reason, the Comprehensive Transport Study for the Mumbai
Metropolitan Region (2008), which presented a vision for transport plans in theMumbai metropolitan area, states that the Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link Project(hereinafter referred to as "the Project"), which links Mumbai and Navi Mumbai
via a marine road, should be implemented early to solve the problem describedabove, viewing the Project as one that is essential for promoting economicgrowth in the Mumbai metropolitan area.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Road Sector
The Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), which consideredestablishment of closer connectivity as a priority area, stated that JICA would
support development of transport infrastructure that provides hubs and networksof transport to establish closer connectivity between major industrial cities,
between economic zones, and between regions. It also consideredenhancement of competitive industrial power as a priority area, stating that JICA
would help developing important infrastructure such as high-standard roads. In
its Country Analysis Paper (March 2018), JICA viewed development ofhigh-productivity industries as a major development task, emphasizing that
establishment of better connectivity was required in order to improve logistics
and the movement of people, and the Project is in accordance with thesepolicies and analysis. Furthermore, the Project aims at establishing better
connectivity with Navi Mumbai where urban development is progressing andother areas by building a marine road to link central Mumbai on the peninsula toNavi Mumbai on the other side of Mumbai Bay in order to promote economic
development in Maharashtra’s Mumbai metropolitan area. Therefore, it is also
anticipated to contribute to SDG Goal 9 “Build resilient infrastructure, promote
inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation.”
Records of Japanese ODA loans for India indicate that by the end of February
2020, a total of 66 projects worth \2,584.5 billion had been approved in thetransport sector. This includes 17 projects worth \506.9 billion in the road andbridge sector.
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank carried out the Mumbai Urban Transport Project to Develop

Japanese ODA LoanState Roads and Suburban Railways in Mumbai City (Approved in 2002;US$542 million) and Phase 2 of the Project (approved in 2010; US$430 million).
The Asian Development Bank has supported state road construction in otherstates, including the State Road Development Project in the state of Karnataka(approved in 2010: US$305 million) and the State Road Development Project inthe state of Rajasthan (approved in 2017: US$500 million).
3. Project Description(1) Project objectives
The objective of the Project is to improve connectivity in Mumbai Metropolitan
Region by constructing the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link connecting Mumbai withNavi Mumbai, thereby contributing to mitigation of traffic congestion andpromoting regional economic development.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Mumbai Metropolitan Region, State of Maharashtra(3) Project Components
1) Road on the sea: three lanes on each side, about 22 km in length,
superstructure work (including a 4 km extension of the bridge consisting of a PC
girder bridge and steel composite deck slab bridge), substructure and foundation
work (pile bent and cast in place), approach roads, connectors to the major
highways, related facilities (toll gates, management facilities, etc.), road safety
facilities and intelligent transport systems (ITSs), such as an electronic tollcollection system (ETC) and control center2) Consulting services: outline design, bidding assistance, and supervision for
construction work(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)\317,501 million (including the loan amount: \66,909 million)(5) Schedule
March 2017 to September 2024 (91 months)
The commencement of facilities being put into use (September 2022) is
considered as the completion of the Project.
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA)
2) Guarantor: President of India
3) Executing Agency: MMRDA
4) Operation and Maintenance System: After the completion of the Project,Japanese ODA Loan

operation and maintenance will be outsourced to private business
operators under the supervision of MMRDA, and it is expected that highlyexperienced operators will be assigned. MMRDA will take full responsibility
for these processes.
(7) Collaboration with Other Donors
1) Aid activities in Japan: N/A
2) Aid activities of other aid agencies, etc.: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Cross-Sectoral Issues/GenderCategory1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization
The Project falls into the road and bridge sector, and has thecharacteristics of a project that easily affects the environment and society
in the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(“JICA Guidelines”; promulgated in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit
Indian domestic laws do not require the compilation of reports onenvironmental impact assessments (EIA) and their approval, but thereports compiled by MMRDA were approved by the Agency in November
2015. Clearance for the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) was obtained
from the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change in January
2016.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures
During construction work, the contractors will take measures to reduce
effects on the air, noise, vibration, etc. mainly by spraying water and using
low-noise construction equipment. After the road starts to be put into use,
MMRDA will work with the environmental authorities of the Maharashtra
state government to take measures to reduce air pollution, noise, andvibration, mainly by controlling land use along the road and installingnoise-blocking walls, and thus, air pollution, noise, and vibration will bekept within the range that meets the Indian environmental standards.
⑤ Natural Environment
Part of the road constructed by the Project runs through Mahul-Sewri
Creek, which is within the important bird areas designated by BirdLife
International, but ever since the road built in Phase 1 started to be put into

Japanese ODA Loanuse, there has been no particular change in the population size of birds,
and it has been confirmed that birds were continuously pecking at foodaround the construction site. Judging from this, the Project does not havesignificant effects on the habitat for lesser flamingoes and other birds, andeffects on the natural environment can be reduced by adopting the type ofbridge that takes the needs of birds into consideration and taking
conciliatory approaches such as sound-insulating walls. A total of 12.77
ha of mangrove forests will be felled in the areas where bridge piers are to
be installed and ground approach roads are to be built, but plantation by
the state forest bureau of mangroves in about 105 ha of substitute areas,eight times the above-mentioned area of cutovers, is currently under way.
⑥ Social Environment
The Project involves resettlement of 1,088 residents in 231 households
and the economic resettlement of 66 households, and they are being
relocated in accordance with the plan worked out so that it is based on
Indian domestic laws and the Maharashtra state government’s resident
relocation policy and is approved by the executing agency and meets theJICA Guidelines. It also involves the acquisition of 108 ha of land, and98.7 ha of land owned by the City & Industrial Development Corporationof Maharashtra (CIDCO) has been transferred from the Corporation toMMRDA with the acquisition by CIDCO of the remaining 9.3 ha of land
under way. Compensation will be given for the acquired land based on theamounts equivalent to replacement costs in accordance with theagreement with landowners. In the consultations with residents, theyexpressed opinions about the places and distance of resettlement, and abasic agreement was obtained from them mainly through explanations by
MMRDA about the provision of relocation sites, and residents have notexpressed particular objections to the Project. Moreover, since project
implementation is expected to have some effects on the livelihoods ofsome fishermen in Mumbai Bay, MMRDA worked out a compensation
policy and explained it to them. They did not raise strong objections
against it.
⑦ Other/Monitoring
During construction work in the Project, MMRDA plans to monitor
anti-pollution measures (such as air quality, noise, and vibration) throughcontractors. After the road starts to be put into use, MMRDA will alsoJapanese ODA Loanmonitor air quality, noise, and vibration as well as the post-resettlement
lives of people, and in addition, during construction work and when theroad is put into use, MMRDA will monitor the lives of birds such as lesser
flamingoes and the growth of newly planted mangroves.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issues: N/A
3) Gender Category: GI (S) (gender activity integration project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization> As the result ofconsultation with the executing agency, it has been agreed that HIV
measures that contribute to gender consideration will be implemented in theProject. Therefore, the Project is classified as a gender activity integration
project.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects1) Outcomes(Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator

Baseline(Actual value in2015)

Average annual traffic volume(PCU/day)Target (2024)[Expected value twoyears after projectcompletion]-47,400

61 (Note 3)

16

Number of passengers (1,000persons/year) (Note 1)

046,078

Freight volume (1,000 tons/year)(Note 2)

013,512Travel time (minutes)
Sewri-Chirle sector(using ordinary roads via theVashi bridge)(Note 1) The number is calculated based on the average number ofpassengers by vehicle type (Based on the cooperative preliminary survey
conducted in January 2017, the number is set at 2.6 persons for standard
cars and 37.2 persons for buses, and it is assumed that it is one person fortrucks).
(Note 2) (Since no similar survey has been carried out) The freight volume isJapanese ODA Loancalculated based on maximum loads by truck type (1 ton for small trucks
and 15 tons for large or multi-axis trucks)(Note 3) Actual value(2) Qualitative Effects
Expected qualitative effects include improved traffic congestion in theMumbai metropolitan area, greater convenience provided by ensuring thatpeople and vehicles can travel within an expected standard time, andeconomic development in the Mumbai metropolitan area and Navi Mumbai(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the Project is 15.4%, and the financial internal rate of return(FIRR) is 1.5%.
【EIRR】
Costs: Project (price-escalated, excluding administrative expenses),
operation and maintenance, and land acquisition costs (all costs do notinclude taxes)
Benefits: Driving cost reduction effects and travel time reduction effects
Project life: 32 years【FIRR】
Costs: Project, operation and maintenance, and land acquisition costs
Benefits: Fare revenue
Project life: 32 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External factors• The political and economic situation in India and the project target area
shall not become worse, and massive natural disasters shall not occur.
••

The policy of the government of India and the organizational structure andoperations of the project executing agency shall not change.
The situation of land and facility use in the project target area shall notchange rapidly.

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Result of Evaluation of Similar Past Projects
One lesson learned mainly from the ex-post evaluation of the Rehabilitation

Japanese ODA Loanand Maintenance of Bridges along Arterial Roads Project, a Japanese ODA
loan for the Republic of the Philippines, is that by confirming theappropriateness of the construction period while taking rainy and dry
seasons into account, the executing agency and consultants can complete
construction work during an appropriate construction period and minimize
the effects of natural disasters on the Project.
(2) Lessons for the ProjectIn the Project, based on the lesson cite above, an agreement has beenreached with the executing agency so that the construction schedule is set
taking into consideration the rainy season in Mumbai when the precipitation
rises sharply. The Project will be implemented according to the schedule.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project contributes to promotion of regional economic development in theMumbai metropolitan area where many Japanese businesses operate. In
addition, improved connectivity between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai is expected
to indirectly benefit Japanese businesses whose bases are located in Navi
Mumbai. The necessity of supporting in carrying out the Project is high because
the Project is in accordance with the Indian government’s tasks anddevelopment policy as well as the aid policy of Japan and JICA and is expected
to contribute to SDG 9.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As described in Section 4 (1) to (3)(2) Timing
Ex-post evaluation is scheduled for two years after project completion.