Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Basic Information
Country: India
Project Name: North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 3)(I)
Loan Agreement：October 29, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector and Northeastern Region in India
In India, roads are responsible for 85.2% of passenger transport and 62.9%
of freight transport as important transportation means, which shoulder thedomestic transportation sector along with railways. Along with population
increase and economic growth, the number of registered vehicles has been
increasing by approximately 11% per year since 2001. It is expected to exceed
250 million in 2020. While increase in the rate of owning private vehicles is
expected also in the future, improvement of efficiency of passengers and freighttransportation is a major issue.
In India, the National Highways Development Project (NHDP) was started
in 2001 by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH). In this project,
improvement of road connectivity between large cities such as "golden
quadrilateral connecting four metropolitan cities" has been promoted. In 2015,
road construction works for all sections (7,522 km) of the 2001 annual plan had
been finished, and improvement of major arterial roads was progressing. On theother hand, delays in road improvement are noticeable in the northeastern region.
Actually, the pavement ratio of all roads in the northeastern region is 28.5%(national average: 63.4%), and the rate of roads with two or more traffic lanes is53.0% (national average: 77.9%).
In the northeastern region, subsistence farming and public services, which
rely on budget transfer, are the main industries. GDP per capita (2014-2015) was
82,649 Indian rupees, which was lower than the national average, 98,293 Indianrupees. The regional gap is a serious domestic issue. (Reserve Bank of India)
North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 3)(Hereinafter referred to as “this Project”) is targeting the section, which ispresently a missing link of the road connecting the East-West Corridor thattraverses India and the northeastern region (National Highway 127B). The
missing link section is hindering economic development. In order to promote
countermeasures against the increasing traffic demands and investment toindustries inside and outside the region, improvement of a road network includingthat of roads and bridges, which is the foundation for economic activities, isrequired.
The government of India aims to improve national roads between the major
cities in the region through a special program in the northeastern region (Special
Accelerated Road Development Programme for North-East) in the 12th Five Year
Plan (April 2012-March 2017) in order to accelerate road improvement in theregion, where road improvement and development are delayed. The Modi
administration also views regional development in the northeastern region,
especially road network improvement, as one of its priority measures. This

Project, designed to connect Assam State and Meghalaya State, is positioned asa part of the priority measures.
(2) Japan and JICA’s cooperation policy, etc. toward the Road Sector and theNortheastern Region and the Positioning of this ProjectJapan's Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) states thatJapan's ODA is "expected to continue to play an important role in India to build
critical infrastructures that ensure continued investment and strong economic
growth." It also sets "strengthening connectivity" as a priority area, and states thatJapan, with a view to de-bottlenecking the infrastructure constraints to investment
and growth, will support the development of a transportation hub and network
infrastructure to strengthen connectivity among major industrial cities andeconomic zones as well as regional connectivity. Under this context, it further
states the need to promote Japan-India cooperation to achieve connectivity
between North Eastern Region and other parts of the country, a point
acknowledged between the leaders of Japan and India.
In addition, JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) positions
strengthening connectivity as a task to be tackled by JICA, and stipulates thatassistance shall be provided for improvement of roads and other infrastructure,
which contribute to improvement in commodity distribution and humantransportation, in order to eliminate bottleneck in economic growth. This Project isconsistent with these policies and analyses. In ODA loans to India, 61 cases (totalof 2,239.8 billion yen) of loan agreements were signed for the transportation andtraffic sector as of September 30, 2018, including 15 cases (total of 441.4 billion
yen) for the road and bridge sectors. Loan cases to the other sectors include 38
cases (1,762.1 billion yen) for the railway sector, and 8 cases (36.3 billion yen) forthe port and harbor sector.
This Project, through bridge construction, is considered to contribute toGoal 9 of the SDGs, "Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainableindustrialization and foster innovation," and Goal 10, "Reduce inequality within
and among countries."(3) Other Donors’ Activity
ADB is conducting northeastern states roads investment program in thefour states in the region including Assam State, and the World Bank isimplementing a state road improvement project in Mizoram State.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
To improve the connectivity of Northeastern region of India through constructing
the bridge, etc. (total length: 20 km) between Dhubri and Phulbari, thereby
promoting regional socio-economic development.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Northeastern region (Assam State and Meghalaya State)(3) Project Components
1) Construction of new bridge, etc. (Approximately 20 km: Including accessroads, two lanes on one side)2) Consulting service (construction supervision, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
104,660 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 79,059 million yen)(5) Schedule
The project period is planned to be from October 2018 to September 2030 (144months in total), and the project completion shall be the date to commence thefacility service (September 2028).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: National Highways and Infrastructure Development
Corporation Limited (NHIDCL)
4) Operation and maintenance agency: Operation and maintenance after the
project completion is planned to be outsourced to private companies under
the supervision and responsibility of NHIDCL. Regarding consignment to
private companies, there are a considerable number of achievements inother state roads, but consignment in construction of large bridges like thisproject is the first experience for NHIDCL. Accordingly, technical capacity
development through technical assistance (dispatching experts andproviding training) will also be taken into consideration after grasping theexecuting agency’s needs. Regarding NHIDCL budget, obtaining subsidy
from MoRTH is ensured. The cost of operation and maintenance is to be paid
from the subsidy. There are no special financial concerns.
(7) Collaboration and Division of Roles with Other Projects and Donors
1) Japan’s assistance activities
In North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase
1) (Loan Agreement: March 2017), it is planned to conduct improvement ofroad conditions and road expansion of the main line of National Highway 54(total length: 350.7 km between Aizawl and Tuipang), which is thesouth-north trunk road in Mizoram State, and National Highway 51 (total
length: 51.5 km between Tura and Dalu), which is the south-north trunk roadin Meghalaya State. In the North East Road Network Connectivity
Improvement Project (Phase 2) (Loan Agreement: March 2018), it is planned
to construct a new bypass of National Highway 54 (total length: 350.7 km
between Aizawl and Tuipang), which is the south-north trunk road in Mizoram
State, and to conduct improvement of road conditions and road expansion of
National Highway 40 (total length: 81.5 km between Shillong and Dawki),
which is the south-north trunk road in Meghalaya State.
2) Other development partners’ assistance activities:
None in particular(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration(i) Category: A(ii) Reason for Categorization: This project falls into the road sector and has
influential characteristics, both being shown in the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (proclaimed in April 2010).
(iii) Environmental Permit: Preparation of an Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) concerning this project is not obliged by the domestic
laws of India. However, an EIA was approved by NHIDCL in May 2018.
(iv) Anti-Pollution Measures: Regarding air quality, water quality, waste,noise, vibration, etc., which may cause concern during the construction
works, it is scheduled to take measures including watering, waste
disposal at the government designated disposal site , reuse of surplus
soil, maintenance of heavy construction machines, and installation ofsoundproof wall in order to meet the domestic emission standards ofIndia Regarding noise and vibration after the commencement of theservice, road surface maintenance, horn restriction, and other measures
will be taken.
(v) Natural Environment: The target area of the project does not fall within anarea susceptible to the impact of construction works such as nationalparks, etc. or the surrounding area. As Ganges dolphin and other rare
species are found, installation of pollution prevention curtains,suspension of works as needed, and other mitigation measures will betaken. In addition, detailed investigation will be conducted before theconstruction work in order to review the mitigation and monitoring plan
when necessary.
(vi)Social Environment: As this project is going to be accompanied by landacquisition of 137.4 ha and involuntary resettlement of 615 residents, theland acquisition will be proceeded based on the domestic procedures of
the country and the resettlement plan formulated according to JICA
guidelines. In the discussions with the local residents about this Project,
no fierce oppositions were presented.
(vii)Other/Monitoring: During construction, the contractors, etc. will monitor
air quality, water quality, waste, noise, vibration, etc. under thesupervision of NHIDCL. NHIDCL monitors the noise, vibration, etc. while
the constructed facilities are placed in service. NHIDCL and a local
environmental NGO will monitor the ecosystem, land acquisition, andinvoluntary resettlement.
2) Cross-cutting Issues:
None in particular3) Gender Category: [Gender Project]  GI(S) Gender Activity Integration
Project<Description of reason for classification> In discussion among all
stakeholders in the preparatory survey, an arrangement was made to share
information with women and to involve women in the discussion, and womenactually participated in the discussion. In the construction stage, types andwork hours of jobs women may engage in will be considered carefully in orderto provide equal employment opportunities for men and women, taking into
consideration needs of women and the social background of the target area.
Accordingly, the project is classified into a Gender Activity Integration Project.
(9) Other Important Issues
None in particular
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Indicator
Average daily traffic volume in the target
section (PCU/day)
No. of passengers in the target section

Baseline(Actual value in2017)

Target (2030)[Expected value
2 years after
project
completion]

0

14,54702,953,887

(persons/year) (Note 1)
Freight volume in the target section (t/year)(Note 1)
Average required travel time (hours) (Note 2)

0

11,841,106

8.21

0.39

(Note 1) The number of passengers is calculated by multiplying the breakdown of “average
daily traffic volume in the target section" by 365 days and the maximum number ofpassengers of each vehicle (1.5 persons for a motorcycle, 3 persons for a passenger
car, 20 persons for a small bus, and 40 persons for a bus.) The freight volume iscalculated by multiplying the breakdown of “average daily traffic volume in the target
section” by 365 days and the maximum load capacity of each freight vehicle (one ton
for LCV, 3 tons for two axel truck, 13 tons for three axel truck, and 15 tons for multiple
axel truck or trailer.)(Note 2) The baseline is the actual value in 2017, based on the traveling time data of thenearest detour between Dhubri - Phulbari (a route crossing the Naranarayan Setu
Bridge in Goalpara about 60 km upstream along the Brahmaputra River).
(Note 3) Regarding indicators other than the average required travel time, the baseline isset to 0 because there are so many diverging points on the nearest detour between
Dhubri - Phulbari that demand estimation at only one course is difficult.

2) Impacts(2) Qualitative Effects
Economic development of the area, travel comfort of the target section(3) Internal Rate of Return
Under the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR)
is 16.5%, and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) will not be calculated.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Reduction in vehicle travel costs, reduction in travel time costs
Project Life: 25 years
5. Prerequisites / External Factors(1) Prerequisites
In land acquisition, consensus formation of local residents and the relatedorganizations can be continued.
(2) External Factors
1) Aggravation of political and economic situations in the target area and theirsurroundings and large-scale natural disasters do not occur.
2) No changes will be made to the road development policies of theGovernment of India and the organizational structure/duties of the executing
agency.
3) The situation of the use of land and facilities does not change rapidly in thetarget area.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Lessons Learned from Similar Projects
Based on the ex-post evaluation of the ODA loan to the Republic of thePhilippines, "Rehabilitation and Maintenance of Bridges Along Arterial Road," theexecuting agency and construction supervision consultant confirms the validity of
the construction time considering the rainy season and the dry season, wherebyconstruction of this project can be conducted in a reasonable period. In this way
lessons are learned so that impacts of natural disasters on the project
implementation can be minimized.
(2) Application of the lessons learned to this ProjectIn this Project, the construction schedule with the rainy season taken into
consideration has already been agreed upon with the executing agency. It has
already been agreed that appointing a worker who can make a construction plantaking weather and disaster risks into consideration as the construction
supervision consultant can minimize impacts of natural disaster and enable safe
construction.
7. Evaluation Results
This project, being consistent with the development issues and development
policies of India and with cooperation policies of the Japanese government and JICA,
is thought to contribute to Goal 9 of the SDGs, "Build resilient infrastructure, promote
inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation," and Goal 10 of theSDGs, "Reduce inequality within and among countries to rectify." As the result of theabove, it is highly necessary for JICA to cooperate with the implementation of thisproject
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
Same as 4. (1) - (3)(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after project completion
END