Hope for People
and the Ocean

Jane Lubchenco
Oregon State University
Blue Planet Prize + 25 Lecture
08 September 2017

5 Key Points
1. The futures of the ocean and of people
are tightly linked together.
2. Both are at risk due to climate change,ocean acidification, overfishing andhabitat destruction.

5 Key Points
3. Solutions exist to fix these problems- reduce carbon emissions- end overfishing & recover depleted
fisheries, and- protect biodiversity and habitats.

5 Key Points
4. We have the tools and knowledge tochange course, but the will to usethem at a large scale has been missing.
5. Now is the time to act.
In short: a message of urgency and hopeMarine ecosystems provide multiple benefits:

Ian Shive/TNC

Tim Laman/Nat Geo

food, oxygen, medicine, fuel, climate regulation,disease & pest regulation, coastal protection,

Brian Skerry/Nat Geo

Heather Dine, FKNMS

cultural and spiritual values, nutrient cyclingBut overfishing, habitat loss, climate change andacidification deplete & disrupt ocean ecosystems,

threatening economic, social & environmentalbenefitsIs this hopeless?

Photos (clockwise): Nila Tanzil, Jose Cabezas/AFP, Gregg/Wikimedia CommonsPositive progress is underway,
But it’s not at the scale needed.

Scientists are now working with society to propose
solutions, not just identify problems

Citizens are becoming engaged. Policy makers aretaking action. Business leaders are leading.
They are collaborating & using new technologies.

How can we accelerate theprogress?
What have we learned about whatworks?

An important emerging theme
The right incentives can convert avicious cycle of unsustainable
practices to a virtuous cycle ofsustainable practices
1) Economic incentives
2) Social incentivesa) social normsb) personal norms
Lubchenco et al., 2016 PNAS

Nyborg et al., 2016 ScienceTwo examples:
1. Fisheries
2. Marine Reserves

1. Fisheries management

Photo: K. Ellengoben

1 in 7 people rely on seafood for their protein

Unsustainable fishing policies & practices
Have resulted in depletion & disruption
collapsed
overexploited
fully exploited

developing
rebuilding
FAO data, Pauly 2013 Nature, adapted from Pauly 2007 AMBIOFishing harder and harder for fewer andfewer returns

Plus illegal fishing…

Solution:
Fish smarternot harderby changing

incentives forfishermen &industry andcooperatinginternationally

Photo: http://mutuamatheka.co.ke/blog/my-trip-to-kisite-mpunguti/

Policy reforms are resulting in moresustainable fishing, e.g., U.S.

4th producer globally
3rd importer globally

Reforms in 2006:

1. Mandate to end overfishing – science-basedlimits, accountability, ecosystem focus
2. Rights-based approaches – give fishermen avoice and a stake in the future.

U.S. Federal Fisheries
20002015• # Overfished stocks

9238• # Rebuilt stocks

041Since 2008:• 23% increase in catch; 32% increase invalue; 35% increase in jobs

White House: Fishermen as
Champions of Change for
Sustainable Seafood

Jason
DeLa Cruz, FL
Chris Brown, RI

BradPettinger, OR

Policy reforms are resulting in moresustainable fishing

4th producer globally
3rd importer globallyin 2006

5th producer globally
1st importer globallyin 2013

1. Mandate to end overfishing – science-basedlimits, accountability, ecosystem focus
2. Rights-based approaches – give fishermen avoice and a stake in the future.

Adoption of rights-based fisheries
around the world: by species• ~ 200 rights-based fisheries• > 500 species• In 40 countries

2. Marine Reservesprotect biodiversity and recover depleted
fishery stocks…

When areas
are fully
protected
from fishing,ecosystem
usually
recovers:

Individuals
become larger,
more abundant,
and morediverse PISCO (2009) Science of Marine Reserves; Data from Lester et al. (2009) MEPS
N = numberof studies

Marine Reserves protect the large fishthat produce more youngMoreover, large reserves are
more resilient toenvironmental changes

Compelling scientific evidence about benefits ofreserves + courageous leadership have resulted
in a recent flurry of activity…
Roberts et al., 2017 PNAS

Photo credit: Enric Sala, Pristine Seas, National Geographic SocietyIn the lastdecade: from
0.1% to 2.6% ofocean strongly
protected
2.6

UN Targets: 10% in MPAs
Scientists say need 30-50% as fully protected

4.5

2015 & 2016: large marine reserves announced
Palau (83% EEZ), Chile (24% EEZ), UK (22% EEZ), New
Zealand (15% EEZ), Seychelles (15%) , US (23%)

Douglas Peebles

Jochem D. Wijnands

Photo: James Watt

NOAA

President Obama expanded the fraction of the U.S.
EEZ that is strongly protectedfrom ~5% in 2008 to ~23% in 2016

Photo: James WattNOAA

Marine Reserve Conclusions
1. Powerful science + partnerships +new political leadership + new social
norms have resulted in > an order ofmagnitude increase in strongly
protected areas globally.
2. The 2.6% is excellent progress BUT a
far cry from >30% needed.

Marine Reserve Conclusions con’t
3. Marine reserves may be especially
important in providing greater
resilience against climate change
4. But active resistance fromextractive users plus lack of publicawareness and lack of commitment
to stewardship impede progress.

Ocean solutions are linked with actions
across all of the other Sustainable Development Goals

Biggest Threats:

Lack of Awareness (problems & solutions)
Lack of Responsibility

https://sites.google.com/site/complexadaptivesystems2011/

What can individuals do?
• Stay informed – find reliable sources of information• Reduce your carbon and water footprints• Choose sustainably caught or farmed seafood• Eat lower on the food web• Join, support or create groups to take action• Donate part of your time
• Communicate your concerns & recommendations toelected representatives, friends, & family• Be creative – find new solutions

Can we use the ocean
without using it up?

The task is daunting.
Ecological limits are real.
But if we work together,use science + knowledge,
get the incentives right,
activate our moral compass, andare courageous,
I believe we can.

My Hope: Recover the bounty;
use it wisely & equitably

Photo: NOAA

Thanks!
Jenna Sullivan, Vanessa Constant, Steve Gaines, Chris Costello,
Amanda Leland, NOAA, UN FAO, Environmental Defense
Fund, Sustainable Fisheries Group at UCSB, David
and Lucile Packard Foundation, The Sea
Around Us Project at UBC, Oregon
State University, NSF

Photo: aussiedestinationtours.com