GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator
A proposal to CEOS and GEO
Toshio Koike, Japan GEO WG Chair
Background
World Bank Vice President, I. Serageldin, recently observed “Many of the wars of the 20thcentury were about oil, but wars of the 21st century will be over water." In reference to the growing
global and regional water issues. In 2001, the International Conference on Freshwater in Bonnidentified “managing risks to cope with variability and climate change” as one of its primary actions
in dealing with governance issues. Recent climate-related water catastrophes, such as floods in inPakistan, Australia, Brazil and South Africa, serve to remind us that the most significant and harmful
impacts of climate change will be experienced through alterations in the water cycle. Climate change
adds another formidable challenge, especially in water which is essential in the natural climate
system and the human society. Although the impacts are currently far from certain, they are unlikely
to be favorable.
Concept Design
Water is key which makes a bridge between the climate processes in atmosphere, oceans,cryosphere, terrestrial carbon cycle, ecosystems and sea level rise, and the socio benefit areas
including agriculture and forestry, health, energy, human settlement and infrastructure and theeconomy.

Figure 1. Model Integration for Assessment, Richard H. Moss, etal., Nature, 2010, modified by Author.
The global water cycle, which includes the transport and distribution of large amounts ofwater associated with its constant phase changes among solid, liquid and gaseous states, is a criticalcomponent of the Earth’s climate system. Due to the effects of the atmospheric and ocean
circulations and the variations of water stored as snow and soil moisture, local and regional watercycle variations are correlated across areas and seasons.
People have been developing water cycle management systems considering the water
cycle variability as a stationary process. But now, under the current conditions this concept has beenshown to be misleading resulting in a need for radical change in approach to develop a clear
consensus on how best to utilize model projections of climate and hydrology in conducting
frequency analysis of future hydrological hazards. Hydrological regime sifts and changes in extreme
events, including floods and droughts, are now fundamental threats to human beings all over theworld.

Figure 2 Concept Design
Increased water cycle variability impacts primarily through water, biological processes andhuman dimensions with implications for land use and societal development. It is critically importantto recognize the fundamental linkages among water; land use, including deforestation; carbon cycleand ecosystem services; and food-, energy- and health- securities. By sharing coordinated,comprehensive and sustained water cycle and related Earth observations andinformation for sound decision making, GEOSS could lead in developing effective
interdisciplinary collaborations for working together based on coordinated and integrated efforts andsubsequently to both mitigation and adaptation benefits. Building resilience to the climate changeand variability is essential for establishment toward the final goal, the sustainable development ofEarth’s societies and ecosystems.
Implementation Design
To accelerate the coordinated and integrated efforts, we need to develop “GEOSS Water
Cycle Integrator (WCI)”, which develops a holistic coordination capability of the following function

Figure 3 Implementation Design.
in cooperation with various partners:
observation integration
science and model integration
data integration & analysis
cross-Socio Benefit Areas and Community of Practices
management system integration
sustained education framework
GEOSS/WCI will set up “work benches” where partners can share data, information andapplications in an interoperability way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual
understanding and work together effectively. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or
phenomenological space where experts and managers work together to use information to address a
problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen
individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary
coordination and integration
CEOS’s Key Roles in GEOSS/WCIIn order to implement GEOSS/WCI CEOS would be expected to lead “satellite
observation integration” and “data integration” for GEOSS/WCI. These elements are essential
components for the technical and architectural elements of WCI.
To quantify the impacts and vulnerabilities and develop and assess adaptation options, it isimportant to combine climate projections with integrated assessment models by utilizing
comprehensive data of the climate, water cycle and resources for each societal benefit area observedby satellites. This effort would address the need for a Bridge between the current CEOS
constellation projects and promote the development of a new observational and analysis integration

Figure 4 Coordinated Observation and data integration.

capability.
This effort will build on the mutual cooperation between CEOSS/WGISS andWCRP/GEWEX, which successfully implemented the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period(CEOP) was and its integration capability for in-situ and satellite observation data and numericalmodel outputs. The CEOS Water Portal is now developing a wider and deeper data integration
capability under GCI framework. A GEOSS/WCI data integration function will be developed byaccelerating the effort and incorporating developments and expertise of other systems including
those in NASA, ESA and other CEOS members. Other efforts will be needed to build the networks
and to involve the experts and managers who will test and utilize this system.
GEO has established GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) and GEOSS AfricanWater Cycle Coordination Initiative (AWCCI). In Latin America, the GEOSS water capacity
building programs are now on going. Through regional, inter-disciplinary and inter-agency
coordination, and integrated efforts, GEOSS/WCI will lead to effective actions and publicawareness toward water security and sustainable development.