Workshop on Seismic Hazard Assessment Issues in
the island arc of Taiwan and Japan
June 4-6th 2012, NCU, Taiwan

Earthquake probability mapping andhazard mitigation program in Taiwan
K. L. Wen1,2, T. H. Wu2, B. R. Wu2, M. W. Huang2,
S. Y. Liu2, and C. L. Chang2
1) Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan
2) National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, NARL, Taiwan

Outline• Hazard Mitigation Planning for Large-scale Earthquakes– Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster Prevention• Probabilities of the Potential Earthquakes – Regional Source– Shallow zone：12 zones– Deep zone: 4 zones• Operation of Emergency Response– Support Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC)• Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning

Hazard Mitigation Planning
Taiwan has experienced
ten destructive earthquakes
with magnitude greaterthan 6.0 almost in every
decade since the 1900s. It isessential to organize acomprehensive hazard
mitigation plan for
reducing the losses inducedby large-scale earthquakes.

data from CWB

Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation
Due to the limited timeand cost, it is suggested
to consider the regionswith serious destruction
induced by large-scale
earthquakes first. Thoseregions with thefollowing characteristics
should be assigned as
the Priority Regions.
1. Political and Economic
importance.
2. High potential ofearthquake anddisaster.

Priority Regions
PreventionofEarthquake

Disaster

When promoting large-scale earthquake disaster prevention
works, priority is given to regions with political andeconomic significance, as well as higher earthquake
potentials. They ought to be designated as “Earthquake
Disaster Prevention Priority Regions”.

Earthquake Disaster Scenario Simulation
After designating the priority regions, use the “earthquake
disaster scenario simulation method” to assess the possible
losses in these regions.

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Strategies
Based on scenario simulation results, propose “earthquake
disaster mitigation strategies” for each priority region.

Earthquake Disaster Scenario Simulation
The natural conditions,humanity characteristics, andgeography features ofregions are the import factors
to be considered in theseismic scenario simulation.
With the seismic scenario
simulation technology, thecasualties and damages
induced by various scenario
earthquakes can be obtained.
Those results can be used as
the basis for organizing thehazard mitigation plan.

Framework of the Taiwan Earthquake
Loss Estimation System
Potential Earth Science Hazards

Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Analysis

Ground Motion

Ground Failure

Direct Physical Damages

General Building
StocksEssential
Facilities

Transportation
Systems

Indirect Physical Damages

Fire Following

DebrisUtility
Systems

Socio-economic Losses

Casualties

Shelters

Economic Losses

Indirect Losses

Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Strategies
According to the scenario
simulation results, the central
and local governments canorganize the corresponding
policy to reduce the earthquake
losses. Some strategies areproposed for hazard mitigation,
preparedness, emergency
response, and recovery forgovernments to construct theseismic hazard mitigation plan.

Earthquake Loss Reduction Strategy

HazardMitigation andPreparedness

Emergency
Response

Declaration of the major disasterImprove the emergency response andmanagement system
Propose the mitigation policy for thesecondary disasterMonitoring of theearthquake harbinger
Fast earthquake reporting
system and early
warning system
Improve the seismic
resistance of structures
Public education andprofessional training
Establish acomprehensive hazard
mitigation system
d h l
d
A

RecoveryEstablish theinvestigation
mechanism post
earthquakehDesignation mechanism of priority region forseismic hazard mitigation
NCDR
Organize a working group for designation of priority region

 Assess fault parameters, earthquake potential and damages
 Suggest priority region for seismic hazard mitigation

1. Fault Parameter ForumThe Central Geological
Survey invites scholars todetermine fault
parameters and propose aapplicable version.
Propose applicablefault parameters

2. Earthquake Potential Forum
NCDR invites scholars toassess probability of potential
earthquakes in 10 to 50 years
and estimate earthquake
ground motions.
Evaluate probability of potential
earthquakes and analyze earthquake
ground motions

3. Risk Evaluation Forum
NCREE invites scholars todetermine risk evaluation
model and risk index.

Investigate possible
damages and losses in
TaiwanOutline• Hazard Mitigation Planning for Large-scale Earthquakes– Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster Prevention• Probabilities of the Potential Earthquakes - Regional Source– Shallow zone：12 zones– Deep zone: 4 zones• Operation of Emergency Response– Support Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC)• Promotion of Earthquake Early WarningAssessment processes of evaluating theoccurrence probabilities
Regional source
Zoning and earthquake catalog

Remove the effect of aftershock
Magnitude of potential earthquake
Magnitude and frequency
relationship
Recurrence Model

Regional Sources
Zoning
Geology
Seismicity

Red dots：
Epicenters（1900~2010/12,
ML7）

Earthquake Catalog
Catalog: 1900-2010/12
Magnitude: ML4
Depth: D < 40 km
NP4 (Decluster): Z03 (786 Eq.)

Magnitude: ML

8

6

4

2
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

Remove the effect of aftershock
500

Log(T) = a1 M + b1

Duration (days)

400
300
200
100

Log(L) = a2 M + b2

0
2

3

4

5

6

7

8

6

7

8

Magnitude

b1 = -2.007
a2 = 0.347
b2 =-0.567

Length (km)a1 = 0.668
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2

3

4

5
Magnitude

Catalog before and after removing aftershocks
N P 4 ( C lu s t e r ):Z 1 0 ( 8 5 1 E q .)Magnitude: ML

8

6

4

2
19 00

19 10

1920

193 0

19 40

1 950 196 0
Y ear

N P 4 (D e c lu s t e r):

19 70

1 980

1 990

200 0

20 10

1990

2000

2010

Z 1 0 (2 1 9 E q . )Magnitude: ML

8

6

4

2
1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

Max. Earthquake: Cumulative Energy Method(Maxropoulos and Burton, 1983)
S00-1900-2010-M4

Taiwan Area
Strain Energy (*1000 Joules)

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1900

Mu,r= 7.5
Mu,c= 7.7
1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Time (year)

logE = 12.66 + 1.4ML (Iida, K., 1976)

PDF

Distribution of Time Interval

1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Data
Log-normal
Gamma
Weibull

s006

0

2

4

time interval

68Frequency and Magnitude Relationship(G-R Law)
Gutenberg and Richter (1944)
Taiwan Area

Earthquake Number

10

10

10

10

10

10

5

S00-de-1900-2010-M4
Short term data
Long term data

4

Least Square Method(1) b value:M  0, 1973-2010/12

3(2) a value:2

M  4, 1900-2010/12

1

0

1

log(N)= 3.96-0.93*ML
Mc: 2
Mf: 6.4
2

3

4

Initial anchor point :5

6

Magnitude. ML

Log(N) = a - b M

7

8

M6

Probability Density Function (PDF)

Log-normal distribution

A

Recurrence Model: Conditional Probability ModelProbabilities in Next 10, 20 30, 40, and 50 Years
The conditional probability model with
log-normal distribution
S00-de-1900-2010-M4: Lognormal

Taiwan Area
Occurrence Probability (%)

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5

Tp=10 year
Tp=20 year
Tp=30 year
Tp=40 year
Tp=50 year
5.5

6

6.5

7

Magnitude. ML

7.5

8Probabilities (%) for ML6, ML6.7, ML7
M>6.0

M>6.7

zone

10 year

30 year

30 year

50 year 10 year

30 year

50 yearTaiwan

99.8

99.9

100

82.3

97.2

98.6

67

95

99.7

S01

25.9

59

76.7

1.3

5.4

10.6

0.3

0.3

0.2

S02

68

94.6

98.7

18.9

46.2

63.6

7.1

20.8

33

S03

84.1

98.8

99.7

34.7

70.6

85.3

16.9

41.8

58.8

S04

90.7

98.9

99.5

48.4

81.4

91.3

18.4

45.4

62

S05

84.4

99.2

100

16.1

54.2

77.5

0.2

5.7

17.7

S06

65.9

94.9

99.1

13.9

40.3

59.9

0.01

0.1

1

S07

79.4

98.3

99.5

9.1

40.2

65.4

0.2

2.1

9.4

S08

69.2

96.4

99.8

12.7

32.2

45.8

-

-

-

S09

31.8

75

89.1

2.2

11.6

22.8

0.1

0.9

3.1

S10

64.3

95.2

99.1

16.4

38

53.8

2.8

12

20.1

S11

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

S12

38

74.3

88.3

5.6

18.1

29

0.01

0.01

0.3

lognormal

50 year 10 year

M>7.0

Prob. of ML 7 in next 10 yr

Prob. of ML 7 in next 50 yr
Shallow-1900-2010-M4

Shallow-1900-2010-M4
26

S11

lognormal

25.5

25

S09

24.5
24

Latitude

S01

S03

S04

16.9%

18.4%

S05

S06

S10

23.5

7.1%

S09

24.5
24

33.0%

S02

S03

S04

58.8%

62.0%

S10

23.5

S01

S05

S06

23

23
22.5

S07

S12

S08

22.5

22

22

21.5

21.5

21
119

S11

lognormal

25

S02

Latitude

25.5

26

119.5

120

120.5

121

121.5

Longitudinal

122

122.5

123

21
119

S07

S12

119.5

120

120.5

121

121.5

Longitudinal

S08

122

122.5

123

Recurrence Probabilities Utilizing Micro-zoning Method
Probabilities(%) for ML6 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

Probabilities(%) for ML6.7 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

Probabilities(%) for ML7.0 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

The color of each mesh look same due the interval is 10%,
but numerical of each mesh is different.

Outline• Hazard Mitigation Planning for Large-scale Earthquakes– Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster Prevention• Probabilities of the Potential Earthquakes - Regional Source– Shallow zone：12 zones– Deep zone: 4 zones• Operation of Emergency Response– Support Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC)• Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning

Max. Earthquake: Cumulative Energy Method(Maxropoulos and Burton, 1983)
Catalog: 1900-2010/12
Z01

Magnitude: ML4
Depth: D >35 km

Z02

Z03
Z04

M,obs

M,cal

Taiwan

7.3

7.6

Z01

7.3

7.4

Z02

7.0

7.1

Z03

7.1

7.1

Z04

7.0

7.2

Frequency and Magnitude Relationship(G-R Law)
Gutenberg and Richter (1944)

ZONE

a valueb value

Least Square Method(1) b value:

Taiwan

3.43

0.93

Ｚ01

3.22

0.93

Ｚ02

2.78

0.88

Ｚ03

2.67

0.77

Ｚ04

2.32

0.81

M  0, 1973-2010/12(2) a value:M  4, 1900-2010/12
Initial anchor point :M6

Probabilities (%) for ML6, ML6.7, ML7
M>6.0

M>6.7

M>7.0

zone

10 year

30 year

50 year 10 year

30 year

50 year 10 year

30 year

50 yearTaiwan

96.0

99.8

100.0

63.3

91.3

96.8

38.0

72.5

85.5

D01

83.5

97.8

99.4

37.4

72.0

85.2

13.6

40.2

57.8

D02

69.6

93.6

97.8

10.0

39.0

57.9

3.1

9.4

15.5

D03

77.1

98.0

99.7

25.9

60.9

79.3

0.3

1.8

4.9

D04

25.9

79.8

94.5

0.01

2.4

11.3

0.01

0.01

0.1

lognormal

Prob. of ML 7 in next 10 yr

Prob. of ML 7 in next 50 yr

Deep-1900-2010-M4

Deep-1900-2010-M4

26
25.5

D01

lognormal

25.5

13.6%

25

25

24.5

24.5

D02

23.5

3.1%

23

D04

D03

22

22

21.5

21.5

120

120.5

121

121.5

Longitudinal

122

122.5

123

57.8%

D02

15.5%

23
22.5

119.5

lognormal

23.5

22.5

21
119

D01

24

L a titu d e

24

L atitu d e

26

21
119

D04

119.5

120

120.5

121

D03

121.5

Longitudinal

122

122.5

123

Recurrence Probabilities Utilizing Micro-zoning Method
Probabilities(%) for ML6 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

Probabilities(%) for ML6.7 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

The color of each mesh look same due the interval is 10%,
but numerical of each mesh is different.

Probabilities(%) for ML7.0 in next 10, 30, 50 years

lognormal

The color of each mesh look same due the interval is 10%,
but numerical of each mesh is different.

Outline• Hazard Mitigation Planning for Large-scale Earthquakes– Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster Prevention• Probabilities of the Potential Earthquakes - Regional source– Shallow zone：12 zones– Deep zone: 4 zones• Operation of Emergency Response– Support Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC)• Promotion of Earthquake Early WarningCurrent Structural Chart of CEOC

33

NCDR’s Role in Emergency Response34

Earthquake Disaster Response Framework
Response• SOP• Division of labor• Information decisionsystemNCDR provide suggestions ofdecision making for thecommander with• the earthquake report by theCentral Weather Bureau (CWB) and• the estimation of possible disaster
information, including exposure inareas with strong intensity andcasualties and building collapse by
Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation
System (TELES) of National Center
for Research on Earthquake
Engineering (NCREE).

Loss Assessment of Earthquake
Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System, TELES

模擬事件一（宜蘭外海）模擬事件三（山腳斷層）
模擬事件二（新城斷層）

Developed by National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering
36

SOP for Emergency Response
in NCDR
Earthquake
ReportIntensity
distribution•Real-timeobservation
Prediction
intensity•Attenuation
equation of groundmotionEvaluation

Traffic•Roads•Railway•Bridge
Facilities•Airport•Power Plant•Reservoir•Industry Park
Schools
Hospital
Loss Estimation

Disseminating

Report released
by CWB：
Location
Focal depth
Observation

Seismic
Intensity

Decision Support System for Emergency Response
Contouring theintensity map
according theannouncement of
CWB observation

Intensity
distribution•Real-timeobservation
Prediction intensity•Attenuation
equation of groundmotionInterpolation of the observation based on the method of
inverse distance weighting to produce the intensity map.

Stage 1. (Chien, 2001)
Stage 2. (詹皓凱, 2008)

Scenario-based output from analytic layers
Exposure

Traffic
Facilities

Buildings &Population

Bridges

Ground Motion

Areas with high risk

Analytic results are produced immediately and automatically after
receiving the CWB report.
0-1hr即時產製圖資•強震區推估
•強震區內交通設施（國道、臺鐵、高鐵、省道）提醒•強震區內重要設施（機場、電廠、水庫、工業區）提醒

位於六級震度(烈震)之橋梁：
1. 和平一號橋
2. 和平二號橋3. 潘子溝橋
4. 宮聖橋5. 進興橋位於七級震度(劇震)之橋梁：
1 雙福橋
2.廓底橋
3. 湖尾橋4. 民雄排水橋•強震區內學校安全評估•強震區內地區級以上醫院機
能運作提醒•強震區內重要橋樑、重點橋樑提醒

位於六級震度(烈震)之醫院：
1. 成功醫院
2. 彌勒醫院
3. 佛教慈濟大林醫院
4. 聖馬爾定醫院5. 基督教醫院
6. 嘉義醫院
7. 榮民醫院
8. 鎮源農民醫院
9. 張綜合醫院
10. 卓綜合醫院11. 雲林醫院12. 國軍斗六醫院
13. 灣橋榮民醫院
位於七級震度(劇震)之醫院：(無)

Output of GIS-based layer and disseminating the evaluations
via E-mail and SMS of cellphone.

Outline• Hazard Mitigation Planning for Large-scale Earthquakes– Priority Regions of Earthquake Disaster Prevention• Probabilities of the Potential Earthquakes - Regional source– Shallow zone：12 zones– Deep zone: 4 zones• Operation of Emergency Response– Support Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC)• Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning

Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning System

Introduction of Earthquake
Early Warning System (EEWs)

Regional EEWs
Use real-time monitoring network to
determine earthquake location and send
warning message to distant regions awayfrom epicenter before S waves arrive.
So far, regional warning in Taiwan isavailable for regions with epicentral
distance greater than 60 km.

Onsite EEWs
Seismographs are implemented in-situ todetect P waves and provide onsite
warnings.
Onsite warnings may be available to theareas within the epicentral distance
ranging from 30 to 60 km.

Regional EEW system

Onsitewarning
Onsite earthquake
monitoring system

Challenges and solutions ofpromoting EEWs in Taiwan
 It is necessary to integrate the regionaland onsite warning systems because of
the small land of Taiwan.
– People can receive the regional warning far
away the epicenter via various communication
channels.
– The onsite technology can be applied to areas
near the epicenter.
Application of EEW system
Regional EEW(CWB)

Application
organizations
Estimated
intensityOver
thresholdCWB Earthquake
monitoring network

Onsite earthquake
monitoring system

OnsiteWarning

Integrated
control
modulePromotion of Earthquake Early Warning System

Application of EEWs to Schools
 Regional and onsite EEW message waslinked with the broadcasting system toautomatically inform teachers andstudents at 4 schools with collaborationof NCDR, CWB, and NCREE.

Internet

CWB
Regional
Warning

EEW receiving Message
display
computer atschoolComputer interface(CWB)

IntensityoverthresholdOnsiteWarning

Onsite Earthquake
Monitoring System

LED display and broadcastingin classrooms

Activate emergency
responses

Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning System

Pilot test at Emergency Response
Center
 EEW message was received via

internet at National Fire Agency
for testing with collaboration of
NCDR, CWB, and NCHC.

EEW received via internet

Pilot application for Taiwan
High Speed Rail Customized EEW message wassent by CWB to THSR for testingand pilot application withcollaboration of CWB, NCDR,
and NCREE.

EEW message for Taiwan High
Speed Rail

Promotion of Earthquake Early Warning System

Planning of EEW Transmission Mechanism
 Public sectors: CWB send EEW directly to government ministries,

infrastructures, schools via internet and emergency communication
system.
 Private sectors: By collaboration contract with CWB, transmission
agencies are allowed to provide EEW transmission and customized
service to users.
Transmission
AgencyCollab. Organ.
NPO/NGO
Research Inst.

CWB
Telecom.
Company
Collaboration
contract of EEWtransmission
service

Mass media• Internet• Emergency communication(Satellite, Microwave) system

Leased line
(Double circuit with backup system)

Cell phone multicast、Lowfrequency transmission

TV, Radio, RDS

Gov. ministry
Infrastructure
SchoolCustomized
application
unit

Servicecontract

Individual
user

Paid
service

GeneralpublicPromotion of Earthquake Early Warning Systemnsmission test using the Radio Data System
The radio data system is used for EEW transmission test with collaborationof Inst. of Transportation, MOTC, CWB, NCHC, and NCDR. It may be
applied to navigator device for drivers in the future.
Internet

CWB

Internet

Inst. of Transport.
Message coding

EEW server

Police radio station
FM transmission

NCDR
Message decoding
and display

nsmission test using Low-Frequency Time and Frequency
adcasting System
The Low-Frequency Time and Frequency Broadcasting System is used for
EEW transmission test with collaboration of Bureau of Standards, Metrology
and Inspection, MOEA, Chunghwa Telecom Institute, CWB, and NCDR.
Internet

Ground Motion Prediction

kshop on Seismic Hazard Assessment Issues inland arc of Taiwan and Japan
4-6th 2012, NCU, Taiwan~Thanks for Your Attention~
wenkl@earth.ncu.edu.tw