Development Planning Processfor Earthquake Resistant City
March 16, 2010
Center for Urban Earthquake
Engineering (CUEE)Tokyo Institute of Technology
Professor Hideki Kaji

Development and Disaster(Cause)(Effect)
Ｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒ → Economic Growth and Development-Infrastructure for economic production may beseriously damaged by natural disasters, resulted inlowering industrial productivity↓-Development may be declined, resulted in stagnation ofeconomic growth(Cause)(Effect)
Development → Disaster
Vulnerability to natural disasters may increase due todevelopment, resulted in more serious damage caused bydisasters

1 Intervention toNature

GeologicalAssessment2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous Element

RiskAssessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply toVulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area toVulnerable Land

Land UseControl

6 Increase of
Vulnerable
Buildings

Building CodePublicInvestment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to Disaster

Road between Vientiane and Luanprabann in Laoswww.giocities.co.jp/NatureLand/6455 /takadati_photo08.html 写真「北上風」氏

Reclamation of Tokyo bay Area1 Intervention to
NatureGeologicalAssessment

2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous ElementRiskAssessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply to
Vulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area to
Vulnerable Land

Land Use
Control

6 Increase of
Vulnerable
Buildings

Building CodePublicInvestment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to Disaster1 Intervention toNature

GeologicalAssessment

2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous Element

Risk
Assessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply toVulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area toVulnerable Land

Land UseControl

6 Increase of
Vulnerable
Buildings

Building CodePublicInvestment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to Disaster1 Intervention to
NatureGeologicalAssessment

2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous Element

Risk
Assessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply toVulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area toVulnerable Land

Land Use
Control

6 Increase of
Vulnerable
Buildings

Building CodePublic
Investment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to DisasterChina Central TV Building (53 stories) on Fire, 9 Feb 2009http://news.searchina.ne.jp/disp.cgi?y=2009&d=0210&f=national_0210_003.shtml&pt=largeComparison of Fire Service Level between Asian Cities

Phnom PenhJakartaVientiane
Kuala Lumpur
ManilaBang kokHanoi
Delhi
Katmandu
Colombo
Ulaanbaatar
AlmatyLahoreSeoulTokyoPopulation Firefighters

Population
perFirefightes

No. ofFire
TrucksPopulation
per Fire
Truck

1000
persons
938
8,790
380
1,375
9,454
5,900
2,050
9,000
1,000
713
658
1,061
6,500
10,47011,698persons
9,475
3,373
2,621
2,599
3,238
3,933
10,2504,500
16,949
1,624
1,119
1,235
16,497
2,110
649

truck

persons
104,22262,78620,00080,88239,392
31,217
97,61966,176
333,333
37,526
16,45024,114342,105
16,725
6,601

persons
99
2,606
145
529
2,920
1,500
200
2,000
59
439
588
859
394
4,963
18,0139140
1917240189
21136
31940
44
19626
1,722

Fires

Fires perPopulation

32
789
30

0.03
0.09
0.08

4,676
1,353
100
8,314
149
287
737
1,583
575
6,843
7,025

0.49
0.23
0.48
0.92
0.15
0.4
1.12
1.49
0.09
0.65
0.6

Population per Fire TruckmPe
Ja nhkaViK u e n r ta
a la tia
Lu ne
mp
M au rB a n ilangko
Ha knoi
K a D e lhtm i
C o an d u
U l lo maa bnb oaa
A l ta rma
La tyhor
Se eo
To ulkyo

400,000350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,0000Ph

nopersonsPopulation per Fire Engine

1 Intervention toNature

GeologicalAssessment

2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous Element

Risk
Assessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply to
Vulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area to
Vulnerable Land

Land UseControl

6 Increase ofVulnerable
Buildings

Building CodePublicInvestment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to Disaster1 Intervention toNatureGeologicalAssessment

2 Lack of Measures
Against Natural
Destruction Forces

Hazard map
Micro-zoning

3 New Location ofHazardous Element

Risk
Assessment

4 Gap Between Demandand Supply toVulnerability

Capacity
Building

5 Expansion of
Built-up Area toVulnerable Land

Land UseControl

6 Increase of
Vulnerable Buildings

Building CodePublicInvestment

Attractive-ness

Development

PrivateInvestment

Job
Opportunity

Migration

Figure Relation Between Development and Vulnerability to DisasterDevelopment & Disaster Cycle
Periodic Process
DisasterDevelopment&Growth

Response&Recovery

Recovery&Reconstruction

Economic Growth

Development with Disastermanagement

Development without Disaster
Management

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisasterTime

Figure Tow types of Regional Development

Integration of development planningwith disaster management program
Disaster management program should be
integrated with development planning in thefollowing three cases.
A) Assessment of new developmentB) Guidance of urban expansionC) Upgrading of existing built-up area

A) Assessment of New Development

Development plan, 2008

Urushiyama industrial park,
Niigata, Japan

Development Site Selection Process
Next
OptionCandidate of Development ProjectSiteSlope, Soft soil
Quaternary layer
Liquefaction
Artificial fillSoil Condition

Anticipating
Earthquake

Ground Motion based on Micro- zoning

Development
Plan

Possible Seismic Risk

Engineering
Measuresfor Risk Reduction

Non-engineering Measuresfor Risk Reduction

Yes
NoPlanAlternatives

Not Acceptable

Cost
EffectivenessAcceptable
Authorized Project Site
And Development Plan
With EQ Engineering Options

Figure Development Site Selection Based on Vulnerability Assessment to Earthquake DisasterB) Guidance of Urban Expansion

Integrated Process for Land Use Planning
Forecast ofPopulation Growth

Designation ofFuture Urban Area

Development Land
Requirement

Ground and Soil Condition of theArea

Slope, Soft soil
Quaternary layer
Liquefaction
Artificial fill

Master Plan

Amendment ofMaster plan

Ground Motion based on Microzoning

Yes

HazardousDevelopment SiteNo
Fire resistance area,
Height regulation,
Land use regulation,
Land coverage regulation

Land Use andArchitectural Zoning

Authorized Master Plan
And Land Use Plan

Figure Land Use Planning to Guide Urban Expansion to Safe Direction

Anticipating
EarthquakeExample - Colombo, Sri Lanka
Land use in 2005

Land use plan of 2005

Forecasted Land use in 2015

Nagasaki H. et al.,” Development of a Land Use Planning Support Tool in Developing Countries” Theory andApplications of GIS, 2006, Vol.14, No.2, pp.85-96

C) Upgrading of Existing Built-up Area

Identification of Priority Project Site
Existing Built-up Area

Open SpacePopulation

Buildings

Fire Outbreak

Vulnerability toFire Spread

Slope, Soft soil
Quaternary layer
Liquefaction
Artificial fill
Ground andSoil Condition

Ground Motion by Microzoning

Vulnerability to
Human Life

Vulnerability to Building
Collapse

Identification of Priority Project Site

Examination ofProject Alternatives

Redevelopment
Open space
Public facilities
Housing

Figure Rehabilitation of Existing Built-up Area

Vulnerability Assessment of Tokyo

Thank you for your attention