Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: Republic of India
Project: Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link Project (I)Loan Agreement: March 31, 2017
Loan Amount: 144,795 million yen
Borrower: Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector in India
In India, which has not adequately developed its public transport infrastructure
despite the recent rapid urbanization, road traffic congestion has become a serious
problem in major urban centers of the country, and economic losses associated withthis pose a huge obstacle to furthering economic development. As the road sector
accounts for about 57% of the transport activities of the country, India regards thecomprehensive development of roads and other infrastructure as a vital element forcontinuing its economic growth and places great emphasis on development work inthis sector.
The Mumbai metropolitan region is one of the largest metropolitan areas in India,
the population of which reached 18.41 million people in 2011, and the city of Mumbai,
the center of the region, is one of the world’s most densely populated cities (with apopulation density of 20,694 people/km2). As a result of the rapid urbanization, thenumber of registered automobiles in the city has risen dramatically in recent years, from107 million in 2002 to 203 million in 2012 (source: Road Transport Year Book
2011-2012, issued by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India). Taking
this situation into account in Mumbai and the fact that the city is located on the edge ofthe peninsula and thus does not have much land remaining for development, theGovernment of Maharashtra decided to promote economic growth in a wider area for
the Mumbai metropolitan region by attracting industries to Navi Mumbai, which issituated on the shore opposite to Mumbai, as well as implementing various
development work there, such as the development of a special economic zone,
expansion of the Jawaharlal Nehru Port (406 million TEU capacity, 2010-2011), a portwith one of the largest amounts of cargo handled in India, and the development of a
new airport. Nevertheless, there are only two routes connecting Navi Mumbai to
Mumbai, a road and a railway route running around the gulf. In fact, this lack ofsufficient connectivity between the two areas poses another challenge and it isanticipated that traffic congestion will become even more serious in the future.
(2) Development Policies for the Road Sector in India and Priority of the Project
In response to the challenges faced by the transport sector, the Indian Government

has indicated in the National Highway Development Plan (hereinafter referred to as“NHDP”) the necessity of facilitating the development of National Highways while
striking a good balance with the development of state and other highways and local
main roads. The Indian Government also advises that a program similar to the NHDP
should also be established for State Highways and recommends that each state
government develop their own core network of State Highways. In addition, theComprehensive Transport Study for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region was establishedin 2008 to summarize necessary transport measures in the region. This plan
envisions regional transport as a seamless and integrated system, promotes
expansion of the railway network inside and around the Mumbai metropolitan region,and proposes expansion of the road network. In the plan, the Mumbai Trans-Harbour
Link Project (hereinafter referred to as “the Project”), which connects the Mumbai city
center with Navi Mumbai via a road on the sea, is referred to as a project that needs tobe implemented as soon as possible to resolve the above challenge and is regarded
as an essential project for further economic growth in the Mumbai metropolitan region.
Furthermore, the Project is also expected to contribute to better access to Pune, a cityin the same state that is situated to the northeast of the Mumbai metropolitan region.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Assistance Policies and Operations in the Road Sector
Japan’s Country Assistance Policy for India, established by the Japanese
Government in March 2016, states that it is necessary to “develop important
infrastructure required to ensure continued investments and a high economic growthrate while India needs to achieve comprehensive and stable high economic growth.”
In addition, the policy sets “enhancement of regional connectivity” as one of its priority
areas and states that with a view to removing the bottlenecks in the infrastructure
constraining investment and growth, it is necessary to support the development oftransport infrastructure that will act as transport hubs and networks, to strengthen
connectivity among major industrial cities and economic zones, as well as regional
connectivity, in the country. It also says that Japan-India cooperation towards greater
connectivity between regions in the northeastern part of India and other parts of thecountry, which has been confirmed between the leaders of the two countries, should
be promoted. Furthermore, JICA's Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2012) also
regards the development of industrial and urban infrastructure as one of its priority
areas and indicates the necessity of providing assistance for the development andimprovement of infrastructure contributing to the acceleration of regional economic
development and streamlining of logistics, including roads, to resolve bottlenecks ineconomic growth. The Project is consistent with these policies and analysis paper. As
of February 2017, JICA received authorization to provide ODA loans to India in theamount of 175.8 billion yen for 10 projects in the road/bridge sector (which accounts
for 14% of the transportation sector in India). Also, in the area of TechnicalCooperation, JICA has implemented the Institutional Development Project on theSupervision for Highway and Expressway Operation, Management and Maintenanceto help develop management and maintenance manuals and prepare technicalspecifications.
(4) Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank has been implementing the Mumbai Urban Transport Project(developing state highways and a suburban rail system for the city of Mumbai). The
Asian Development Bank has also been working on a state highway improvement
project in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat.
(5) Necessity of the Project
The Project is designed to contribute to regional economic growth in the Mumbai
metropolitan region, where many Japanese companies are in operation. Furthermore,
improved connectivity between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai is expected to not only
benefit Japanese companies that have their bases in Navi Mumbai, but also haveindirect positive effects on Japanese companies operating in and around the city ofPune, as well as Japanese companies planning to join the industrial complex forJapanese companies that is planned to be built in the city of Pune. The Project isconsistent not only with the development themes and policies of the Indian
Government, but also with the assistance policies of Japan and JICA. Therefore, it ishighly necessary and appropriate for JICA to provide assistance in implementing the
Project.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to increase connectivity between Mumbai and its
surrounding areas, particularly Navi Mumbai, which is undergoing large-scale urban
development, by constructing an ocean road connecting the Mumbai city center toNavi Mumbai in the eastern suburbs of Mumbai across the Gulf of Mumbai, thereby
contributing to further economic growth in the Mumbai metropolitan region.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Mumbai Metropolitan Region, State of Maharashtra(3) Project Components
1） Road on the sea: three lanes on each side, superstructure work (including a
4-km extension of the bridge consisting of a PC girder bridge and steel
composite deck slab bridge), substructure and foundation work (pile bent
and cast-in-place), approach roads, connectors to the major highways,
related facilities (toll gates, management facilities, etc.), road safety facilities
and intelligent transport systems (ITSs), such as an electronic toll collection
system (ETC) and control center2） Consulting services: outline design, bidding assistance, and supervision for
construction work

(4) Project Cost
326,531 million yen (Loan Amount: 276,333 million yen)(5) Schedule
June 2016 – June 2023 (85 months in total). Project completion is defined as thecommencement of service (June 2021).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA)
2) Guarantor: President of India
3) Executing Agency: MMRDA
4) Operation and Maintenance System: Once the Project is completed, operations
and maintenance work are to be outsourced to private-sector companies under
the supervision and responsibility of the MMRDA. It is planned that the MMRDA
will pay a fixed amount of money to the private-sector companies to cover thecost of operations and maintenance work.
(7) Environmental and Social Considerations/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Considerations① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The Project is classified as Category A because it
has the potential to exert significant negative impact by being classified into theroad/bridge sector under the Japan International Cooperation Agency
Guidelines for Consideration of Environmental and Social Considerations(published in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA) report for the Project is not required under Indian law. However, an EIA
report was created and approved in November 2015 by the MMRDA. A Coastal
Regulation Zone (CRZ) clearance was also granted by the Ministry ofEnvironment & Forests in January 2016.
④ Anti-pollution Measures: Mitigation measures against air pollution, noise,
vibration, etc. that may be caused during the construction work will be taken by
the contractors, such as water sprinkling and use of low-noise construction
machinery. After the commencement of the service, it is planned that measures
will be taken in cooperation with the environmental authorities of the state ofMaharashtra to minimize air pollutants, noise and vibration to meet theenvironmental standards set by India, for example by controlling use of landalong the route and installing noise reduction walls.
⑤ Natural Environment: Although the project site partially passes through a tidal
flat designated by BirdLife International as an Important Bird Area
(Mahul-Sewri Creek), the Project is unlikely to cause any significant negative
impact on the habitats of flamingoes or other birds. Given that a bird-friendly
bridge design is adopted and mitigation measures, such as installation of noisereduction walls, are planned to be taken, it is believed that no significant
negative influence will be caused on the natural environment.
⑥ Social Environment: The Project involves resettlement of 1,272 residents in
282 households. The resettlement will be implemented in accordance with aresident relocation plan that is created and approved by the executing agency
in compliance with Indian law and the resident resettlement policy of the stateof Maharashtra and meets the JICA guidelines. The Project also involves landacquisition of 96 ha, of which 69 ha will be transferred from City and Industrial
Development Corporation of Maharashtra Limited (CIDCO) to the MMRDA andthe remaining 27 ha is now in the process of acquisition by CIDCO. Landowners are to receive compensation equivalent to the reacquisition prices after
their consent. The MMRDA provided residents with detailed information about
their places of resettlement after receiving opinions from them about the places,
e.g., location and distance, at a resident consultation meeting, and obtained
their basic consent. No particular objections to the Project have been raisedamong them. Furthermore, as the Project may affect the livelihood of some of
the fishermen working around the Gulf of Mumbai, the MMRDA has
established a compensation policy and explained it to local fishery workers.
There has been no significant resistance among them either.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: Anti-pollution measures (air quality, noise, vibration, etc.) areto be monitored by the contractor of each kind of construction work during
construction and by the MMRDA after the commencement of the service.
Furthermore, the MMRDA will also monitor the resettlement of residents, aswell as flamingoes and other birds.
2) Poverty Reduction: N/A
3) Social Development: As the Project involves a large number of workers, the HIVtransmission risk is considered to be rather high1. As such, it is planned that the
instructions to bidders will contain a provision on HIV/AIDS prevention requiringcontractors to cooperate in its preventive measures against HIV/AIDS as part of
the Project’s efforts to minimize HIV infection risks during construction work.
(8) Collaboration with Other Donors: N/A(9) Other Important Issues: N/A

1

According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), India was ranked
third in the world after South Africa and Nigeria in the number of HIV infected people, with 2.1
million infected people (estimated number) as of 2012. (Source: Global Report; UNAIDS report on
the global AIDS epidemic 2013)

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(recorded in 2015)

Target (2023)[2 years after projectcompletion]

Annual average traffic volume(PCU/day)-

42,650

61

16

Time

required(min/vehicle)(peaktimes)
Sewri – Chirle(General road route via Vashi Bridge)(2) Qualitative Effects

The qualitative effects of the Project include mitigated road traffic congestion in the
Mumbai metropolitan region and increased convenience resulting from more punctual
journeys inside the region.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) of the Project will be 13.7% and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR)
will be 0.7%。
【EIRR】
Cost: Project cost (excluding tax), operation and maintenance cost, and landacquisition cost
Benefit: Saving of vehicle operating cost and travelling time
Project Life: 32 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project cost, and operation and maintenance cost
Benefit: Toll revenue
Project Life: 32 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control
・The political and economic conditions in India, particularly in and around the target
area, will not worsen. No large-scale natural disasters will hit the country/area.
・The policy of the Indian Government and the organization and operations of theexecuting agency will not be changed.
・There will not be any drastic change in the use of land or facilities in the target area.

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Results of Evaluation of Similar Past Projects
The lesson that when implementing a project, the major objective of which is todevelop infrastructure from a comprehensive perspective, it is important to fully
analyze and examine how other road/transport networks have been developed andare being planned and reflect the results in the preparatory work for the project waslearned from the ex-post evaluation of the “Second Mekong International Bridge
Construction Project” in the Kingdom of Thailand and Lao People's Democratic
Republic.
(2) Lessons for the ProjectIn accordance with the above lesson, JICA will conduct comprehensive research onroad plans and all other development plans that could be related to the Project at theimplementation stage and make proposals for the construction of a wide-areatransport network across the target area in order to maximize the development effectsof the Project.
7. Plans for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be used
1） Annual average traffic volume (PCU/day)2） Time required (min/vehicle)
3） Economic internal rate of return (EIRR) (%)4） Financial internal rate of return (FIRR) (%)(2) Timing of the next evaluation
Two years after project completion-END-