『生存の条件』シンポジウム / Symposium Conditions for Survival

With the publication ofConditions for Survival
Chinese version
馬小軍 教授Prof. Ma Xiao Jun能源产业视角下的中国绿色发展战略

CHINA'S GREEN DEVELOPMENTSTRATEGY : FROM A ENERGY
INDUSTRY VIEW
中央党校国际战略研究所教授 马小军Professor MA Xiaojun

Ⅰ. a strategic peculiarity of China’senergy-environment issue
 Presumably no country’s energy-environment issue has socloser strategic relations with its national security as that inChina. The rapid growth of energy consumption is one ofthe chief reasons for deterioration of China’s environment.
Chinese government has to be facing domestic
environmental political pressure. At the same time, therapid growth of energy demand, deterioration ofenvironment and China’s becoming the biggest CO2
emission country in the world, all of that make anincreasingly large diplomatic and international politicalpressure to Chinese government.

The Structural Character of Chinese Energy
China's energy structure takes on five characteristics:
1st, the energy structure is dominated by coal and China isunable to transport the coal efficiently. Moreover, the coaldominating structure gives rise to environmental deterioration ;2nd, the resource of the gas and oil is very scarce and the oil andgas is mainly located in the northeast, north and the southwest
region, the domestic production growth of the gas and oil is slow
and the dependence degree will further increase for the international
market；3rd, 80 ％ of the water power is in the southwest and northwest.
the large and far power transmission has not been completely break
the bottlenecks technologically；
4th,in China, the nuclear power, natural gas electricity and newenergy resources starts late and the development prospect is stillunclear；
5th, the energy consumption and supply takes on regional
imbalances pattern.

Global Energy Structure (BM 1.91%)
Renewable energy

U.S. Energy Structure (BM 2.76%)
Coal 23%
Nuclear 8%
6%

Natural gas 23%
Oil 40%1266931太阳能
风能
燃料乙醇
地热能
废弃物

45
Source: U.S. Department of Energy EIA

木材
水力发电

China's energy structure (BM 0.20%)
2.9% Natural gas

Oil20.8%

0.6% Nuclear
Renewable energy

Hydro 7.1%

25

风能

0.3%
25

Coal68.3%

燃料乙醇

生物能源50

Table ofComparisonof the energystructure(BM: The new and renewablesources of energy)

Source: "China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2006"

2009 China Coal Consumption

China GDP, Coal and Electricity generation

The Share of Various Component in China Coal Consumption

GDPCoalElectricity generation

CementSteel

OthersElectricitygeneration

Most of the environmental
issues under the based-coal
structure have not been
resolved and the environment
will further deteriorate underthe background of rapid
economic growth in China.

 China's sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emission has
been in the world's first place in recent years.
 The emission of sulfur and dioxide is expected to surpass
environmental capacity by 30% and 46% by 2020.

Acid rain area accounts for
30% of China’s mainlandareaResources and the environment cost for China's
economic and social development is too large,
situation is grim, and so that governance is noteasy to improve it.
The Chinese government facing series huge contradictions:with the in-depth development of globalization, China as amanufacturing power is deeply restrained and limited by therole and position of the world economic structure. China ispaying the big cost of environment and resources and bear thebigger and bigger pressure of international politics created by“transfer discharge” With the industry products shared by theworld. China may become the most polluted country in theworld on a short period. At the same time, it must make themost of reducing pollution and energy consumption. At home,
it is not only to ensure that economic development but also tomaintain political stability.

“EMBODIED ENERGY”AND“EMBODIED CARBON” PROBLEMS IN
CHINA‘S ECONOMY“EMBODIED ENERGY”, IS A BASIC CONCEPT OF ENERGY ANALYSIS,WHICH CONTAINS TWO MEANINGS: 1、 IT REFERS TO THE SUM TOTALOF THE ENERGY NECESSARY FOR AN ENTIRE PRODUCT LIFECYCLE; 2、THIS RESOURCE CONSUMPTION IS "INVISIBLE" AND TAKES PLACE INTHE FIRST STAGE, MAINLY IN TRADING.
“EMBODIED CARBON”, THE PRODUCTION OF ANY KIND, DIRECTLY ORINDIRECTLY, WILL HAVE CARBON EMISSIONS. EMBODIED CARBONREFERS TO CARBON DIOXIDE EMITTED AT ALL STAGES OF PRODUCTIONCHAIN. FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FOREIGN TRADE, THE "EMBODIEDCARBON" AND "TRANSFER EMISSIONS" MEAN BASICALLY THE SAME.

A global view shows CO2 emission are
mainly from the industrialized countries.
They account for 60% In the cumulative
total of CO2 emission from 1900 to 2004,
the United States accounts for 28% of theemission, about 3.5 times that of China.
● China’s carbon emissions rank first in

the world in 2009. China must take actionin the emission field.

Relevant research estimates the embodied energy of importand export trade in China between 1997-2006 and shows that
despite China's rapid increase in import of energy products,
equally rapid growth in net export of energy makes energy
which is embodied in products leave China. It may share 25%of Chinese total energy consumption.
At the same time, relevant research estimates embodied
carbon of the import and export trade in China between 1997and 2006, and finds that in 1997-2006, with form of products,
China has transferred a large amount of foreign carbonemissions. It may share 25% of Chinese total CO2 emission.
As a producer, China has become the victim of theseemission while as a consumer, importing country has become
beneficiary of these carbon emissions. Therefore, it is unfair
to only blame China for its growth of carbon emissions.

in June 2009, the celebrated American scholar professor KenLieberthal （李侃如） delivered a speech entitled China’s Searchfor Energy Security and Implications for US Policy in the Council
On Foreign Relations（CFR）of Senate. He made a concrete
description for the contradictions of social development and energy
reduction as follows：●The coal accounts for about 70 ％ in china's energy andin future decades, no other energy can replace it.
●In last 30 years, China's urbanized advancement has
been developing rapidly in a unimaginable scale. China isfacing the most large-scale wave of immigration in humanhistory. Since 1992, there are nearly 200 million Chinese
people who had been removed from rural to urban. Everyyear, about 15 million people moved into the city. Thiskind of immigration speed will last for 15 to 20 years.

Worse, China's position and its role in
the global economic structure cannot bechanged in a foreseeable future.
Environment-resource problem has been
the strategic bottleneck impeding
China's development. The Chinese
authority will have to face everincreasing environmental-politicalpressure in domestic issues, as well asinternational and diplomatic pressure in
the climate-change gaming.

II. The key to China’s green
economic and social development in
future is to change the traditional
development way from GDP-based
into human-centered and focuses
the fundamental goals of economic
and social development on pursuing
human dignity and people’s wellbeing.

The goal of “11thFive Year Plan ” in2010：
•The energy
consumption
intensity drops by
20%•The main pollution
discharge drops by10%

China’s ten strategic policies onenvironment and development
中国环境与
发展十大对
策 China’s
Ten Strategic
China’s Agenda 21Policies on– White paper on
Environment China’s Population,
andEnvironment andDevelopment
Development
1992

1994
16

China’s National Climate Change Program
In June 2007, China released thefirst policy program for settling
global warming:
The plan describes the effects ofclimate change and maintains that
China will adopt the policy
framework,
China has adopted a series ofmeasures, including: transforming
economic growth mode, adjusting
economic structure and energy
structure and controlling
population growth,
China will strive to develop newand renewable energy and newsaving technologies, and actively
promote the carbon and otherrelevant technology.
17China’s Scientific＆TechnologicalActions on Climate Change
The Ministry of Science andTechnology and other 13
departments establish theprogram together for
implementing the national plan.
The important task is:
The scientific issues of climatechange,
The technical development ofcontrolling greenhouse gas
emission and mitigating climatechange,
The technologies and measuresof adapting to climate change,
The major strategies and policies
for settling the climate change.

III. The status quo and trend of China's
new energies development
After the financial crisis, the world is brewing a
new round of industrial structure adjustment;
the new economic model characterized by low
carbon and green is gradually developing. At
present, the climate factors are to become themajor impetus of global industrial adjustment
and energy revolution. The climate change willlead to another industrial revolution in humanhistory.

Around the climate industry and low-carbon
economy, it will be to establish the new global
trading rules, a new energy industry structureeven a new pattern of the economic developmentmode. The field may be to become a stage ofbuilding the new international political andeconomic order. It is important to note,
globalization will promote the accelerated growthof the climate industry and low-carbon economy,
and it will also be the new tools of theinternational political and economic order
dominated by developed countries and the newbarriers developing countries have to face.

Global Energy Development Trend

The Share of Renewable energy in Energy Demand

IcelandDenmark

CanadaRussiaU.S.
ChinaPortugalIndia

BrazilAustralia

New ZealandChina Energy Consumption Structure Change
Gross Consumption Change

Other renewableenergyHydroelectricNuclear
Natural Gas
OilCoalNon-renewable Energy Consumption
Million tons oil equivalent

Hydro- Nuclear
electric Energy CoalTotalOECD

NaturalGas

Oil

China and India Other Non-OECD

Renewable Energy ResourcesWind Electricity Generation Capacity
U.S.

Germany
China

Spain
Other Countries

After 2010, China will become the largest wind power
market and the biggest country of wind power equipment
manufacturing in the world.

The installed capacity of wind electricity in 2010-2020

Nuclear plants
underconstruction incoastal areas:
13 sites, 60
nuclearelectricity units
and 59460 MW
installed powergenerating
capacity

Nuclear Power Plant in China

Newconstr.

Newoperat.

Becomenext 5 yTotal
operated

Before 2000
2001-2005
2006-20102011-20152016-2020目前核电占中国装机容量的1.6%, 2020 年目标是占5%.
Source: NDRC, Medium- & Long-term Target Program on NPP, Oct. 2007.

an example of Chinese electricalindustry：●At present, China’s electrical network scale
has surpassed the US and leaps to the world
leader.
●China became the largest country ofhydroelectricity’s installed capacity in the world.
●The constructing scale of nuclear power is tooccupy the world leader.

● The year 2009 is a year when the small thermal
power plants with the installed powergenerating capacity of 26170 MW closed. In thelast four years of the 11th five-Year Plan on an
accumulative basis The Chinese government
has shut down the small thermal power plants
about 60060 MW totally.
●The proportion of installed power-generating capacityof renewable energies such as the hydroelectricity,
nuclear power, wind electricity, solar energy, geothermalenergy, tidal energy and the resource, the biologicalenergy, and such like, is getting larger. The total of
installed power-generating capacity these new energies
contributed is about 222 million KW.

2009 International Compare of Electricity generation

Terawatt-hours
6000
5000

China

4000
3000
2000
1000

Us
Total Europe &Eurasia

02009 share of total
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%

Data Resource：Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

China
Us
Total Europe &Eurasia
Other countries

The Development Goal of Renewable Energy (KW)

Hydroelectricity

fuel ethanolWind Energy

Solar Energy

The Share of China Renewable Energy ResourceRenewable energy

2008

2009

Change 2009
Over 20082009 share of total

Geothermal（Cumulative installed
geothermal power
capacity*（Megawatts）

24.0

24.0

00.2%

Solar
（Cumulative installed
photovoltaic (PV)power*）（Megawatts）

145.0

305.0

110.3%

1.3%

Wind（Cumulative installedwind turbine capacity*）（Megawatts）

12121

25853

113.3%

16.1%

fuel ethanol（Thousand tonnes ofoil equivalent）

1021

1024

0.5%

2.7%

Data Resource：Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

有效开发利用煤层气（瓦斯）To drew
coal
bed/minemethaneA coalbed/mine
methaneservicecar

2009年世界银行提供贷款8千万美
元Using coal bed/ mine methanein publictransportation

3

燃料电池汽车
Tongji University,Shanghai氢燃料电池自行车。该车
售价2万元 (US$2,632),
在大量生产后，可以降低4 000 元。

A Lowcarbon
Building inShenzhen

Bio-gas Power
GenerationDevice
生物质制气发电

Disen Tech. Ld. inGuangzhou
广州迪森技术有限公司

CCS in China

A CCS demonstration project of Coalfired power plant in Beijing, China
Huaneng Groupa CCS project started in Erdos,
China Shenhua GroupFuel cells and electric vehicles （Shanghai）8

The Tianjin ecological City between China and Singapore

保护湿地，低碳产业，绿色交通，低碳指标，等等Thank you verymuch for yourpatience.