Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1.

Name of the Project（１）Country: India（２） Project Title: Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project（Phase 4）（II））（３）Project Site/ Target Area: The National Capital Territory of Delhi (Total
Population: about 17 million) (2011 Census India)（４）Loan Agreement: March 26, 2024
2.

Background and Necessity of the Project（１）Current State and Issues of the Urban Transportation Sector and Priority
in India
Rapid urbanization in recent years has been accompanied by a rapid increasein the number of registered automobiles and motorcycles in India. On the other
hand, public transportation infrastructure has not been well developed, and inmajor cities such as Delhi and Mumbai, traffic congestion caused by increasedroad traffic demand has become a serious problem, resulting in serious economic
losses and automobile pollution such as air pollution and excessive noise. It isnecessary to develop a public transport system to reduce traffic congestion andimprove the urban environment.
In order to address the above issues, the Government of India has set forth theMetro Rail Policy (2017), which emphasizes the development of public transportsystem in these large cities from the standpoints of safety, energy efficiency, andenvironmental conservation, in addition to meet the transportation demands
associated with recent economic growth.
As of 2016, the number of registered automobiles in Delhi was 9.71 million(according to India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation), whichis even greater than that of other cities such as Bengaluru (about 6.11 million) or
Chennai (about 4.94 million), and there is traffic congestion resulting from theincreased number of automobiles. A survey by a private company reports that
due to traffic congestion, it takes approximately 1.47 times longer to travel by car
in Delhi than it would if there were no traffic congestion (placing Delhi 8th in theworld as of 2020, according to this survey report covering 57 countries). The
transportation sector in Delhi emits the largest amount of CO2 compared to other
cities in India, and air pollution due to the increase in the number of automobiles
emits about 10 times the WHO standard of PM2.5 per year on average.

The Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi has been planning andpromoting urban transportation development, mainly the introduction of a mass
rapid transport system, in order to reduce traffic congestion and air pollution in
the National Capital Territory of Delhi and to meet the increasing transportation
demand. The Delhi Master Plan 2021 (partially updated in May 2010), formulatedby the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi and approved by theCentral Government (2007), states that the rapid transport system will be the coreof the transport system in the National Capital Territory of Delhi. The development
plan for Phases 1-4 has been formulated and implemented so far, with the goalof achieving approximately 10.8 million passenger transports per day by the endof the Phase 4 development plan. The “Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System
Project (Phase 4)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Project”) plans to meet theincreasing transportation demand by constructing three priority lines (extensionof Lines 7 and 8, and new construction of Line 10) out of the six lines planned inPhase 4, and is positioned as a key project in the urban transportation sector in
India.
（ ２ ） Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation and Operations in the Urban
Transportation Sector (especially in relation to key foreign policies such as theFree and Open Indo-Pacific Partnership (FOIP))Japan's Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) identifies“strengthening connectivity” through the development of transport infrastructure
as a priority area, and to remove infrastructure bottlenecks to investment andgrowth, railways (including high-speed rail and metro) are needed to strengthen
connectivity within major industrial cities and economic regions, as well as
between regions in India. Since the Project will also contribute to the lowcarbonization of the transportation sector through the development of atransportation system in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, it is not onlyaligned with Japan's Country Assistance Policy for India, but is also positioned aspart of the “Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way (Climate andEnvironment)” in the “New Plan for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)”. The
JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) analyzed the need forsupport for infrastructure development, including mainline railways, urban
railways, roads, and ports, with a focus on industrial clusters such as special
economic zones and economic corridors located in the six major metropolitan
areas and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor in order to eliminate bottlenecks
to economic growth. The Project is consistent with these policies and analyses.

JICA Global Agenda for Transportation states that JICA aims to “improveconnectivity” to reduce the cost of moving people and goods, and to “combat
climate change” by shifting traffic to public transport, and the Project is also
consistent with these policies. For the transportation sector, 87 Japanese ODA
loans totaling 4,328,573 million yen have been extended to India as of February
29, 2024, of which 54 ODA loans totaling 3,534,423 million yen have beencommitted as of February 29, 2024, to the railway sector, including the Delhi,
Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, and Patna metro projects.
For Delhi Metro, ODA loans have been provided since FY1996, and a cumulative
total of 825,184 million yen has been approved for Phase 1 through 4 (I).
（３）Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank (WB) has identified the improvement of connectivity andlogistics as a priority in its Country Partnership Framework (for the Period FY 18FY22), and in the rail sector, the WB has provided support for the Mumbai Urban
Transport Project (2002 and 2010 approved, totaling $972 million) and theEastern Dedicated Freight Corridor Project (2011, 2014, 2015, and 2022
approved, totaling $2,970 million). The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has
recently been promoting support for the modal shift from automobiles to railways
and decarbonization of the transportation sector, and has provided support for
the Jaipur Metro (US$157 million approved, 2013) and the Bengaluru Metro Lines
2A and 2B (US$500 million approved, 2020), among others. The ADB has also
provided support for Mumbai Metro Lines 2A, 2B, and 7 through co-financing with
New Development Bank （NDB） (ADB has committed US$926 million (2019)
and NDB US$260 million (2018)), Chennai Metro Lines 3, 4, and 5 (ADB hascommitted US$1,131 million (2022), NDB US$347 million (2022), etc.).
3.

Project Description（１）Project Description① Project Objective
The objective is to cope with the increase of traffic demand in Delhi byexpanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting regional
economic development, improving urban environment and eventually
mitigating climate change, through relief of traffic congestion and decrease ofpollution caused by increasing motor vehicles in National Capital Territory ofDelhi

② Project Components
The project is to extend Line 7 and Line 8, which were constructed in Phase3, and to construct a new Line 10, as well as to procure rolling stock, etc., in
the section positioned as the fourth phase of the urban rapid transport systemconstruction plan in the National Capital Territory of Delhi.
１ ） Civil engineering works for underground railway (about 29 km),elevated/above-ground railway (about 36 km), underground stations (18),and above-ground stations (27) (international competitive bidding and local
competitive bidding)２ ） Electrical, communication, and signaling systems, station section
equipment construction, railcar depot expansion, automatic fare collection
system, etc. (international competitive bidding, local competitive bidding, andnegotiated contracts)
３） Procurement of rolling stock (312 standard gauge cars) (international
competitive bidding)４） Development of information coordination infrastructure and capacity
enhancement support, etc. (international competitive bidding)５） Consulting services (design review, bidding assistance, construction
supervision, etc.) (short list method)
The ODA loan will cover (a) civil engineering work for underground railroads
and stations, (b) and part of (c), (d) and (e).
③ Project Beneficiaries (Target Groups)
Direct beneficiaries: Metro passengers (about 5.2 million/day) (2023)
Final beneficiaries: Residents of the National Capital Territory of Delhi (about
17 million people) who will benefit from reduced traffic congestion, reduced
traffic accidents, and less air pollution due to the metro improvement.
（２）Estimated Project Cost: 496,558 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan amountof this tranche: 102,932 million Yen)
（３）Schedule (Cooperation Period)
March/2021-September/2028 (91 months including defect liability period)
Completion of the procurement of rolling stock and related items (scheduled in
September 2026) is considered as the completion of the Project.
（４）Project Implementation Structure１）Borrower: President of India
２）Guarantor: None
３）Executing Agency: Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Limited (DMRC)

４）Operation and Maintenance Agency: DMRC
（５）Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
１）Japan’s Activities:
As part of JICA's survey to promote digital technologies utilization andexternal co-creation in various project schemes (JICA DXLab), the consulting
support for DMRC in formulating its data strategy and a PoC (proof ofconcept) to realize data linkage and open data with other transportation
agencies is being implemented from July 2023. In order to implement thedata strategy formulated in this survey, capacity building support anddevelopment of the information integrating database will be covered by the
Project's loan.
In parallel with the above-mentioned survey and support by ODA loan toDMRC, efforts are underway to establish and operate a transportation data
integrating database for the National Capital Territory of Delhi, involving
various stakeholders including transportation operators (public and private)other than DMRC, the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi, andacademic institutions.
These efforts are expected to promote the integration and utilization ofpassenger data and real-time operation data across the entire National
Capital Territory of Delhi, which will be used for effective rail extension andstation installation planning in the Project and subsequent projects,
optimization of operation schedules, and urban development, including TOD
and station area development.
２）Other Donors’ Activities: None
（６）Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The project falls into the railway sector
under the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(April, 2010).
③ Environmental Permit:
Although preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Report regarding the Project is not required under the domestic law inIndia, a report was prepared by DMRC in May 2018, subsequently revisedin June 2020, and this has been approved by DMRC.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures:
Regarding air quality, water quality, waste, noise and vibration duringconstruction work, there are plans to ensure conformance to India’semissions standards and environmental standards by means of sprinklers
and wastewater treatment, excavated earth treatment, and installation ofnoise barriers, etc. Regarding the impact on the ground during
construction, no serious influence due to land subsidence is expected,
since loose ground and the inflow of groundwater will be prevented byadopting the sheet pile construction method, etc. During operation phase,measures to mitigate noise will be taken by installing soundproof walls, aswell as measures to mitigate vibration such as installing rubber beneathtracks, etc.
⑤ Natural Environment:
There are two nature reserves (Asola Bhatti Wildlife Sanctuary andOkhla Bird Sanctuary) within a 10 km radius from the Project routes, butthere is no Project implementation within these reserves.
Elevated/underground routes and some station buildings are planned nearbuffer zone of the Asola Bhatti Wildlife Sanctuary. As the area is alreadyhighly developed, preliminary studies have confirmed that the Project will
have minimal additional impact on wildlife.
⑥ Social Environment:
The Project involves land acquisition of approximately 0.19 ha of private
land and involuntary resettlement of 32 persons from 8 households.
DMRC is implementing the land acquisition and resettlement inaccordance with the resettlement plan created in accordance with theLand Acquisition Act, the Resettlement Policy of the Government of
National Capital Territory of Delhi and other national laws of India, and the
JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations, which arescheduled to be completed by June 2024. It has been confirmed that there
are no deviations from the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations in terms of compensation levels, land acquisition,
resettlement process, etc., and that there are no specific objections to theimplementation of the Project from local residents during the resettlement
discussions. Since the Project route passes near historical and cultural
heritage sites designated by Indian national law, it is necessary to obtain
permits from the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI), and permits forcrossing the vicinity of all seven potentially affected structures havealready been obtained.

⑦ Other/Monitoring
Under the supervision of DMRC, during construction phase, contractors
will monitor air quality, water quality, waste, noise and vibration, etc., andexternal consultants commissioned by DMRC will monitor the same during
operation phase. DMRC and Forest Department will monitor the
ecosystem during construction and operation phase. The external
consultant commissioned by DMRC is monitoring land acquisition,
resettlement, and post-relocation living conditions during construction andin operation phase.
（７）Cross-Sectoral Issues:① Climate change: The Project is expected to contribute to climatechange mitigation as it will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions bypromoting modal shift. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
of the country includes the use of rapid transport systems as one of thestrategies for mitigation measures, and the Project is considered to beimportant. Phase 2 and Phase 3 have been registered with the United
Nations as Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, andDMRC hopes to register the Project as well if a new framework for GHG
emissions trading, etc. is established by the international community inthe future and the conditions can be met. The climate change mitigation
benefits (estimated GHG emission reductions) are expected to be
138,172 tons CO2 equivalent per year (as of 2041).
② Consideration for the disabilities: In accordance with national laws andregulations in India, DMRC has adopted station buildings andpassenger cars (elevators, toilets, internal broadcasting, Braille blocks,
wheelchair spaces, etc.) that are also designed for use by the elderly
and disabled, and has provided customer care training for all front-line
staff, including station staff and crew members.
③ Measures against AIDS/HIV and other infectious diseases: For largescale civil engineering packages that mobilize a large number ofworkers to the construction site, DMRC has already confirmed that thecontract with the construction operator will include the implementationof AIDS measures such as prevention and awareness activities for theworkers.
（８）Gender Category: GI (S) Gender Informed (Significant)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>

In the Project, measuressuch as introducing women-only cars, setting priority seats for passengers
needing assistance (including women), and installing CCTV cameras in stationbuildings/trains are being taken in order to make women feel safe andcomfortable when they use the metro. Also, as well as ensuring same wages
for men and women on construction sites and providing facilities for female
workers, female personnel will also be appointed to management position ofproject implementation. In addition, DMRC is providing dormitories for female
workers and is carrying out activities to increase awareness for the preventionof gender-based violence. For these reasons, the Project is classified as a“gender activity integration project”.
（９）Other Important Issues: None

4.

Target Outcomes（１）Quantitative Effects
１）Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline

Indicator(Actual value in2020)

Target (2028)(2 years after
project
completion)

Operating rate (% /year)
Line 7 extension－

92

Line 8 extension

－

92

－

89

－

5,784

－

10,536

－

9,048

－

964

Line 8 extension

－

1,756

Line 10－

1,508Line 7 extension－

104

Line 8 extension

－

187

－

98

－

2.58

－

7.30

－

3.59

－

9.62

Line 8 extension

－

27.68

Line 10－

14.03

Line 10
Running distance (thousand km /year)
Line 7 extension
Line 8 extension
Line 10
Running distance of women-onlycars (thousand km / year)
Line 7 extension

Number of trains (number of runningtrains / day / direction)Line 10
Transportation volume (million
passenger – km / day)Line 7 extension
Line 8 extension
Line 10
Income from passenger (million
Rupees / day)Line 7 extension

Note: All numerical values are for sections to be constructed by the Project (onlythe extended sections of Line 7 and Line 8, and from Aero City to Tughlakabad

onLine 10).
２）Qualitative Effects
Mitigation of traffic pollution, congestion and climate change in the National
Capital Territory of Delhi, improvements in convenience through punctuality
in scheduled travel times, economic development of the National Capital
Territory of Delhi, and promotion of societal advances for women.
３）Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the Project’s Economic Internal
Rate of Return (EIRR) and the Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) willbe 21.9% and 7.3%, respectively.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance costs (both excluding tax)
Benefits: Effects of reduction in travel time for Metro and other transport
users, reduction in vehicle maintenance costs for Metro and road
users, reduction in road traffic infrastructure maintenance costs,
reduction in road traffic accidents, and reduction in road traffic
pollutant emissions.
Project Life: 30 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance cost
Benefits: Fare box revenue, advertisement revenue, and stationcommercial revenue in and around the stations, etc.
Project Life: 30 years
5.

External Factors and Risk Control（１）Preconditions: None
（２）External Factors: None
6.

Lessons Learned from Past Projects

Based on the ex-post evaluation results of the Metro Manila Strategic Mass
Rail Transit Development Project, which is ODA loan project for the Republic of
the Philippines (evaluation year 2008), etc., the establishment of a financiallyindependent project implementation structure is highlighted as an important issue
from the viewpoint of ensuring suitable operation, management and maintenance.
From the ex-post evaluation reports of India’s Delhi Mass Rapid Transport
System Project and Phase 2 of the same project (evaluation years 2010 and2015), etc., reinforcement of the skills and abilities of internal personnel taking
into account DMRC’s continuous phase implementation has been evaluated as
good practice. The particular reasons for this include the fact that internal staff
gained experience as consulting service counterparts early in the implementationof Phase 1, which enabled them to cultivate know-how in construction
management, etc. and reduce their dependence on outside experts in Phase 2,
and the fact that they have undertaken external projects including JICA projects
in India and abroad such as Mumbai Metro, Patna Metro and Dhaka Metro,contributing to the spread of Metro technology both domestically andinternationally.
In the Project, based on the previous assistance to DMRC to strengthen its
internal human resources through the completion of Phase 3, technical transfer
to DMRC staff regarding project supervision, etc. will be continued through theconsulting services of the Project.
7.

Evaluation Results

The Project is in line with the country's development agenda and policies, aswell as the cooperation policies and analysis of Japan and JICA, and aims tomeet the increasing demand for transportation by constructing a mass rapidtransport system in the National Capital Territory of Delhi, thereby contributing tolocal economic development and urban environmental improvement throughreducing traffic congestion and automobile pollution, as well as mitigating climatechange. It will also contribute to the SDGs Goal 9 (Build resilient infrastructureand foster innovation), Goal 11 (Make cities sustainable), and Goal 13 (Takeaction to combat climate change), etc. Therefore, it is highly necessary to assist
the implementation of the Project.
8.

Plan for Future Evaluation（１）Indicators to be Used
As described in Sections 4 (1) to (3).
（２）Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the Project completion
END
Appendix: Map of the Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project（Phase 4）（II）APPENDIX
Map: Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project（Phase 4）（II）(Source: Created by JICA)*The Project covers only the extension of Line 7 and Line 8 and the new
construction of Line 10.
SectionExtension

Number of
Stations

Line 7 (Pink Line) Extension(Mukundpur - Maujpur)

Approx. 12km

8Line 8 (Magenta Line) Extension(Janakpuri West – R.K. Ashram)

Approx. 29km

22Line 10 (Silver Line)(Aerocity - Tughlakabad)

Approx. 24km

15

Phase 4 Total

Approx. 65km

45