Global EV Outlook 2023
27 April 2023

Global EV Outlook 2023
Launch Webinar, 27th April 2023
Oskaras Alsauskas, Amrita Dasgupta, Elizabeth Connelly, Alexandre Gouy, Jean-Baptiste Le Marois,
Shane McDonagh, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Apostolos Petropoulos, Jacob Teter

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The Clean Energy Ministerial’s Electric Vehicles Initiative(Co-lead)

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(Co-lead)(Co-lead)Page 3

Recent trends in electric cars

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Electric car sales exceeded 10 million in 2022
Electric car sales
1530%Million

Rest of world

1020%

United States

Europe510%

China

Global sales share00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e

Sales of electric cars were up 55% in 2022, led by China, Europe and the United States.
2023 is set to be another record year.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 5Electric cars are reaching mass-market adoption in many cases
Electric car sales share in selected countries, 2018-2022
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

'18

'22

NOR

'18

'22

SWE

'18'22NL'18'22DE'18'22CHN'18'22UK'18'22FR'18'22CAN'18'22SK'18'22

USA'18'22

JPN

Electric cars account for more than 20% of total sales in China and more than 10 European countries.
This share is expected to climb much higher by 2030 with current policies.
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Page 6Electric cars are beginning to sell in emerging economies
Electric car sales
OtherThousands

60
50

Other Latin America
40
Mexico30
20Brazil

10
Other Asia
0'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
India

Indonesia

Thailand

Other emerging
marketsAlthough motorcycles are generally much more prevalent in emerging economies,electric car sales jumped in India, Indonesia and Thailand in particular.
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Large models and SUVs dominate car sales
Car sales in 2022
100%

80%

Small cars

60%
Medium cars
40%
Large cars and SUVs

20%

0%ChinaEurope
Battery electric cars

United States

WorldICE cars

Large cars and SUVs made up over 45% of electric car sales in 2022.
This has important implications for critical minerals demand.
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Sustained policy support underpins EV growthBillion USD (2022)

Spending on electric cars, 2017-2022
40040%

30030%

20020%

10010%02017201820192020

2021

2022

Consumer spending

Government spending

Share of government spending
in total (right axis)

0%

Global total spending on electric cars reached USD 425 billion in 2022,with the share of government support in total spending around 10%.
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Page 9Recent trends in other vehicle segments

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Transport electrification is not only about cars
EV sales share in 2022
Rest of world

15%

India

10%
United States

Europe5%

China
0%

Cars

Two- and threewheelers

BusesTrucks

Electrification is already widespread among two-/three-wheelers.
Sales of electric buses are picking up; trucks are the next frontier for electrification.
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Page 11Model availability widens for electric medium and heavy-duty trucks
Current and announced zero emissions commercial vehicle models by type, release date and range, 2019-2024

China accounts for the vast majority (with 54 000 bus sales and 52 000 medium- and heavy-duty truck sales),but sales in the United States and Europe are rising, with more available models and more viable use cases.
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Page 12Model availability widens for electric medium and heavy-duty trucks
Current and announced zero emissions commercial vehicle models by type, release date and range, 2019-2024

China accounts for the vast majority (with 54 000 bus sales and 52 000 medium- and heavy-duty truck sales),but sales in the United States and Europe are rising, with more available models and more viable use cases.
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Trends in charging infrastructure

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The global stock of public chargers has reached 2.7 million

Thousand

Stock of public chargers, 2015-2022
3 000
Other
2 500
UnitedStates

2 000
1 500

Europe
1 000
China

5000
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Availability of public charging points has kept pace with electric car deployment,with the stock increasing 55% in 2022.
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Globally, there is a ratio of 10 EVs per public charging point0.50

100.45

90.40

80.35

70.30

60.25

50.20

40.15

30.10

20.05

10.00

0

kW/EV

Charging point per EV

Number of public charging points and kW per electric light-duty vehicle, 2022

Charging point per EV

kW/EV

The availability of public charging points varies widely across regions.
On average there is 2.4 kW of public charging capacity per EV worldwide.
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Trends in EV batteries

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Battery material prices increase in 2022
600

12050010040080300

6020040Index (LFP 2020 = 100)

Indexed battery prices by chemistry, 2020-2022
Index (2015 = 100)

Index (1 Jan 2017 = 100)

Indexed metal prices and average battery price, 2015-2022

200150100
100

2000502020
Lithium carbonate

CobaltNickelBattery (right)

2021
LFP

NCA

2022
NMC

The average price of EV batteries increased for the first time in 2022,
though the impact varied across different battery chemistries.
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Alternative battery chemistries on the rise
Material content and market share for different cathodes
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%
LithiumNCACobalt
Nickel

NMC333Manganese
Al + Fe

NMC811

Phosphorous
OxygenLFP

C + Na + Ni
Na-ionShare in 2015
0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

Share in 2022

kg/kWh

LFP batteries rely less on expensive metals like cobalt and nickel, leading to their recent increase in market share.
Sodium-ion batteries which avoid lithium altogether are only now beginning to enter the market, mainly in China.
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Alternative battery chemistries on the rise
Material content and market share for different cathodes0%5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%
LithiumNCACobalt
Nickel

NMC333Manganese
Al + Fe
NMC811
Phosphorous
OxygenLFP

C + Na + Ni
Na-ionShare in 2015
0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

Share in 2022

kg/kWh

LFP batteries rely less on expensive metals like cobalt and nickel, leading to their recent increase in market share.
Sodium-ion batteries which avoid lithium altogether are only now beginning to enter the market, mainly in China.
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Finance and trade

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Carmakers are facing tough competition, especially from China
Share of global electric car markets, 2015-2022

50%
Tesla

40%

BYD

30%

Other Chinese carmakers
20%
Major incumbent carmakers
10%0%20152016

20172018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Tesla and BYD dominate global electric car markets, together accounting for over 30% of sales.
Major incumbents and Chinese carmakers are racing to capture global market share.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

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International trade of electric vehicles is increasing
Share of global gross export, 2019-2022

EV sales (million)

Global electric car sales, 2019-2022
1240%

930%

620%

310%020192020

Sales from domestic production

2021

2022

Sales from imports

0%

2019
2020
United States

2021
China2022
EuropeBetween 2019 and 2022, the share of traded EV went from quarter to just a sixth of global sales.
Since 2021, China has become the largest exporter of electric vehicles, overtaking the US.
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Policies to promote EV deployment

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Policy expanding to buses, trucks, and charging

Easily search of filter by region, category, and others

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Policy expanding to buses, trucks, and charging

LDVs remain the primary focus with over 90% of
global sales covered…

A key barrier for many, EVSE policy coveragecontinues to increase…
Adoption of bus targets in particular sees
coverage of HDVs rise…

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Suites of policies were released in major markets

Inflation Reduction Act• Clean Vehicle Tax Credit• Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicle Program• Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit• And others..

Green Deal Industrial Plan• Net Zero Industry Act• Critical Mineral Act• EU Battery Directive•

Plus revised CO2 standards,
Euro 7 regulations, and theAlternative Fuel Infrastructure
Directive

Examples of key EV related policies
OEM sales
mandateProduction
Linked Incentive

CriticalMinerals Strategy

Indonesia Battery
CriticalCorporation Minerals Strategy

Battery
Strategy

Supply2022

2023

DemandMultiple state level
EV policies
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EV
incentives

EV
incentives

EV
incentives

EV
Strategy
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Outlook for electromobility

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Policy implementation is catching up with targets
Oil displacement in STEPS, 2030

APS

40%

Othermb/dElectric car sales share, 2030

0-1

Cars

30%Europe-220%

Two- and threewheelers-3United States

10%

Buses-4

China-50%

GEVO-2022

Trucks

GEVO-2023
STEPS

-6

A strong growth outlook to 2030 is underpinned by governments delivering on their pledges and market dynamics.
Today’s policies are set to avoid over 5 mb/d of oil consumption in 2030.
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Major carmakers anticipate higher policy ambitions
Electric car sales shares, 2030
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%

Range of OEM targets
NZE
APSSTEPSEuropeEuropeUnited States
United States

ChinaChinaJapanJapan

WorldWorld

Voluntary announcements by carmakers are increasingly common in major markets.
These are higher than policy targets in some cases.
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Battery supply chains are essential to the transition

TWh per year

Battery manufacturing capacity
NZE

76Announcements

54Today

32
10World

Battery manufacturing capacity needs to grow two- to fourfold by 2030.
Policy must ensure that investment flows effectively to all steps of the supply chain.
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Policy recommendations

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Five recommendations to governments

12Adapt support for electric cars

3Expand EV infrastructure

45
Promote adoption in emerging
and developing economies

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Kickstart the heavy-duty
marketEnsure secure, resilient andsustainable EV supply chains

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IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

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