3rd JTTRI Global Seminar; What Does the Future Hold for European Railway Policies?
Comparisons between Japanese and European Railway Policies 22 January 2024

Keynote address on Railway situation and presentpolicies: UK, EU and comparisons with Japan
Imperial Collage London Future Rail Research Centre Chair,
Professor Emeritus Roderick A Smith,formerly Chief Scientific Advisor for the Department for Transport
1What are the particular features which define a railway?
1. Specialist track
2. Accommodates public traffic
3. Conveyance of passengers
4. Traction system permits speed
5. Control system to order operation
6. Some measure of political control2

Began with Liverpool to Manchester Railway
1830
Father George Stephenson
Social life and politics were revolutionized by
the 19c railway
Fed the Industrial Revolution
Improved volume and cheapness of existingtransport
And conquered time and distance3

Rapid growth in Europe:eg. Bradshaw’s Continental Guide published in 1853
And USA
Baltimore and Ohio Railroad (1830 -1987)

Japan later:
Shinbashi to Yokohama opened Oct 14 1872
Private capital, laissez faire in UK and USA
Different systems in Europe:
State in France and Germany (and later all eastern Europe)
Italy mixed until unification
Governments soon realized the strategic
and military importance of railways
4TheEdwardianZenith
Then theFirstWorldWar

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The 1930’s the age of streamlined steam
Mallard (below) made world steam speedrecord of 126 mph 203 kph on 3 July 1938

Grouping: 1 Jan 1923
The Big FourGWR, LMS, LNER, SR,
formed from 120 small
companies
6Mantetsu
From 1934, high-speed, air-conditioned luxury
Pashina type loco by Kawasaki (2m wheels) was the“Yokozuna” of Japanese stream
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Some personal
Background
Born 1947
My introduction toRAILWAYS
1951-910

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Post war Europe
Common market EEC, later EU
Originally a Western Europe ClubIn the last twenty years much expanded toEastern states
Many technical rail achievements, in France
particularly

In 1960’s TEE network, very Western Europe
France started high speed rail TGV in 1981
(17 years after the shinkansen)
Germany, Spain were to follow
But individual railway identities remain 13

Post War European Integration
1957 Formation of EEC “The Six”, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands,Belgium, Luxemburg
1973 Denmark, Ireland, UK join
1981 Greece joined1985 Schengen Agreement “Open Borders”
1986 Portugal and Spain joins 1990 Fall of Eastern bloc, East Germany
joins as part of re-unified Germany
1993 Masstricht Treaty: EU born
2002 Euro introduced

2004 big enlargement when Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined the union
2020 UK exits the EU

Now 27 member states, 450m people, 4.2 m km2, ~ 6% world population

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UK

Europe: big 3 (4)France, Germany, UK
Then Italy, Spain, Poland
Then the rest
Note Japan at 450 is way off the top of the scale
Unit bn passenger km / year

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Development of UK Transport Mode Share%

Note well: the rail mode sharein Japan is about 30%
RailRail17

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Key features: complex, not vertically integrated, many parts,
a lawyers paradise at the interfaces19

UK rail passenger journeys (millions)

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COVID

Privatisation
1993

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The tapestry of rail operators
Tickets only valid for a single operator, Walk on tickets can bevery expensive. Tickets are complicated and variously priced
The timetable is not enforced between operators

Senior management only rarely railway people,
but extremely well paid
Little importance attached to operators delivery record

Industrial relations lamentable, US AND THEM
Profitability is poor, risk always transfer to Government
Punctuality? Cancelations many, reliability?

Government subsidy is much great than BR times22

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UK rail industry
Total Government subsidy

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EU Rail policy explained
The expansion and harmonisation of the EU's rail sector has slowed down over the years because of••traditional fragmentation of the European railways due to complex stand-alone national systems
low efficiency, flexibility and reliability of the service, in particular for freight

EU has adopted between 2001 and 2016 four railway packages which aim to:••••open the railway market to competition
increase the interoperability of national railway systems
define a framework for a single European railway area
the liberalisation of the rail market

The packages stare common provisions:•the licensing of railway undertakings and train driver certification•
safety requirements•
the creation of the European agency for railways and rail regulatory bodies in each member state•rail passenger rights
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Sustainable and smart mobility

As part of the European Green Deal, the European Commission presented its sustainable and smart
mobility strategy in December 2020. The strategy outlines the EU's goals for the transport sector for thecoming decades: making mobility green, smart and resilient. For the rail sector, the strategy calls fora doubling of high-speed rail by 2030 in the EU.

2021 High-speed route lengthkm
4000
3000
2000
1000
0> 200 kph upgraded lines> 250 kph dedicated lines

A more sensible target
would be the doubling ofpassenger use of high speedrail28

Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)
In the wider context of the EU's transport
policy, including rail transport, the Trans-European
Transport Network (TEN-T) aims to create a networkof nine core corridors connecting railway lines withroads, inland waterways, maritime routes, ports andairports across the EU. The goals are to:▪ connect EU countries to facilitate the cross-bordertransport of people and supplies▪ contribute to territorial cohesion▪ ensure interconnectivity between modes of transport▪ support the transition towards sustainable transport

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Connecting Europe Facility
The EU's rail policy is supported by a number of financing programmes, including the Connecting
Europe Facility which funds strategic investment projects in the areas of transport, digital and energy.
The regulation applies retroactively from 1 January 2021. The transport sector will receive the bulk ofthe funding (about €25 billion out of €33 billion), of which by far the largest share will be dedicated torail.

Why?
The European Environment Agency (EEA), estimates that air passenger transport emits, on average,
160 gCO2 per pkm, whereas rail passenger transport is only 33 gCO2 per pkm (well-to-wheel, excluding
infrastructure-related emissions).
With a high share of electrified tracks (57% of the EU’s rail network in 2020) and an increasing share of
renewable energy in the electricity mix (38% of the EU’s production in 2020), the environmental
footprint of rail is expected to decrease further.
Given its potential to reduce CO2 emissions, the EU’s policy is clearly supportive of rail travelling. The
2019 European Green Deal and the 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy have put railpassenger transport front and centre in a bid to decarbonise the EU’s mobility system.
Issues: the liberalisation of air transport has directly led to problems for the rail industry
Rail best card is its greenness, followed by safety. But the public remain largely unimpressed by thesecredentials.
But the biggest growth in demand will come from Eastern Europe where the aspiration is to own a car30

Airline travel really took off between 2014
and 2019 due to the rise of low-cost carriers
and the popularity of leisure trips, particularlyin the intra-EU flight segment.
Essentially, the widening gap between airand rail transport was driven by cheap flights.

Over the last decade and before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, air travelin Europe expanded at a much faster pace than rail travel. While air transport
increased from 377 billion passenger-kilometres (pkm) in 2010 to 586 billion
pkm in 2019 (+5.5% average annual growth rate), rail transport rose at a much
more modest rate, from 358 billion pkm to 421 billion pkm (+1.8% averageannual growth rate).
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Jan 2009
Creation of HS2 Ltd
May 2020
Construction begins

March 2023
Euston delayed

Nov 2021
Eastern link to end in
East Midlands

Oct 2023
Manchester link
Scrapped
Also link to Euston
Taken from Hs2 Ltd

Dec 2021 Trains to be
Bult by Hitachi/Alstrom

Purchased land tobe resold

June 2022 WCML
Link scrapped34

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Cut and cover ’Green” tunnel construction

Chipping Warden, Northampton shire
5,020 segments made in Ilkeston Derbyshire
Tunnel has two arches 8.4m high,
20.3m wide

There are 5 such tunnels on the route36

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Rolling stock folly
and uncertainty

Order placed for 54 train sets
Alstom/Hitachi £2.8bn, including 12 years of maintenance
400m long 350 kph, designed for 35-year-life
Capacity 1000 passengers▪ To operate on HS andnormal track▪ Dual mode power▪ High axle loads▪ No tilt, so slower
than existing onclassic track▪ 400m trains too longfor existing platforms

38£66.6 bn just for London Birmingham

10 Jan 2023 HS2 Chair Sir John Thompson, increase because initial budget set too low and recent high inflation.
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Why was HS2 scrapped?
Huge inflation in costs
Government depends on so called “Red Wall” seats in North, need rapid action torecover popularity
No clear overview in Government why HS2 was neededNo efforts had been made to win “hearts and minds”
Reaction from Sir John Armitt, Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission
Very disappointing.
You have to have a vision, you have to know where you are trying to go.
And you have to get people tobuy into that vision

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THE FUTURE?
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology
look respectable. J K Galbraith
THE FUTURE has a history.
The good news is that it’s one from which we can learn;
the bad news is that we very rarely do. That’s because theclearest lesson from the history of the future is that knowing
the future isn’t necessarily very useful.
But that has yet to stop humans from trying!
Amanda Rees U of YorkYes, it extremely difficult.
THE FUTURE is determined by, for example:
Human actions. eg. Ukraine, Israel and Hamas
Possible pandemics: who predicted Covid?
The climate and its rapid change
TechnologyPolitics
The unexpected

Exclude the living diversity of human experience at your peril!

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The next 20 years will likely see advances in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and carbon capture
technologies to help combat climate change. Will fusion become practical? The timeline for theseadvancements will depend on political will and investment in research and development.

Future railway trends▪ Automation- particularly autonomous driving▪ De-carbonisation- more electrification, green electricity generation, batteries, hydrogen▪ New Technologies- data analytics, AI, real time health monitoring▪ Enhanced services- improving customer satisfaction▪ Harmonisation of train control systems eg. ETCS
All these lead to improved service, increased efficiency, improved customer experience,lower costs, increased capacity

All making the switch to rail more attractive
One prediction from the author:
Hyperloop will play no significant part in the future

44UK rail future
Promised reform “Great British Railway”
Postponed because of forthcoming general election
What is needed?
Clear vision for what is expected of the railway
Continuity of planning for electrification, rail vehicle building
An answer to how is the railway to be paid for and by whom
Reduction of fragmentation

For passenger
Reliability, accurate delivery of the timetable
Simpler and cheaper fares
Better recovery from perturbations
Resilience for effects of climate change4546•As of 31 March 2023, there were 15,220
railway vehicles registered in operation for all
passenger train operators. Of these, 70% wereelectric, 19% were diesel, 7% were bi-mode and4% were locomotive hauled.
•The average age of rolling stock for all
passenger train operators as of 31 March 2023
was 16.7 years.
•Normal life is between 30 and 40 years

7%4% %

Electric
70%

Diesel19%

In the current fleet, over 65% of the vehicles
have been built since privatisation (1997 orafter). Over a third have been built in the last
10 years, and just 4% were built before 1980.
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Steady replacement rate ~435/year
March 2023
16.7
X

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What of the future of Europe?
▪ Many previously strong economies are struggling, including, Germany, France, Italy▪ There is political uncertainty, possibly unrest, in many countries▪ Immigration internally and from outside is causing huge pressures leading to▪ Increasing nationalism and protectionism▪ Increasing concern about financial input and output to the “Club”▪

The leadership of the EU needs to be sensitive to these issues or there may be more resignations▪ Transport policies are very well intentioned, but somewhat idealistic and unrealistic▪ The big question:. Who will pay??
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Thank you for being such an attentive audience

I look forward to questions and our panel discussion

Allow me to draw your attention to the reading list
and my contact:roderick.smith@imperial.ac.uk
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