AFFAIRS
国際問題 INTERNATIONAL
No. 711, February 2023

Focus: The Xi Jinping Regime after the Party Congress（Summary）
Essay: An Examination of the Xi Jinping Regime in China:
Perspectives on the 20th Party Congress
Ryosei Kokubun（Former President, National Defense Academy of Japan; Professor Emeritus,Keio University）
The greatest flaw in Chinese politics is the lack of rules for determining successors. As a result,
there is always a power struggle prior to the Party Congress. Xi Jinping has achieved little in theway of results over the past decade — economic growth is slowing and relations with the U.S. areworsening — and he has achieved a certain degree of success only in the anti-corruption struggle.
However, this was essentially a power struggle. This Party Congress was entirely centered on Xi
Jinping, and the political report emphasized only his achievements. Nevertheless, the revised PartyConstitution shows that the ban on personality cults remains in place, while reference to “XiThought”, the “Two Establishments” or the creation of a new Party chairmanship are not included,reducing the “Xi dictatorship” hue of the Party. Although Xi amended the Constitution to eliminate
presidential term limits, he failed to change the Party’s internal regulations decided during the Hu
Jintao era to limit all officials, including the Party General Secretary, to two terms. Former President
Hu Jintao’s “dissatisfaction” may be related to this. The appointment of Politburo Standing
Committee members ultimately involved inner-circle appointments of close aides only, and these
realities seem to suggest that Xi’s hold on the Party is not necessarily rock-solid.

1 A Study on Xi Jinping’s Leadership Structure and Its Changes
Kazuko Kojima（Professor, Faculty of Law, Keio University）
Xi Jinping is a strong leader created to protect China from internal and external “enemies,” defend
the system from rampant corruption, and rebuild the country under law and discipline, and his leadership style can be interpreted as “public-minded leadership” by a virtuous person. On the otherhand, his pursuit of “strength” and his reliance on his own personal connections in personnel matters
has discouraged many party and government leaders outside these reciprocal relationships andincreased the risk that his leadership will be undermined from within the governing structure. In
addition, the concentration of power and authority in Xi’s hands has led people whose lives andlivelihoods have been threatened to turn on him in anger and hold him directly accountable, as the“White Paper Protests” that have emerged across the country have shown. The only way for Xi toovercome concerns about the personalization of power and create a success story as a virtuous
guardian of the public good is to achieve economic stability and development and improve people’s
welfare through his future governance.

2 “Chinese-style Democracy”:
Competition or Coexistence of Political Systems?
Naoko Eto（Professor, Faculty of Law, Gakushuin University）
In December 2021, the Xi Jinping administration released a white paper on “Democracy in China（中国的民主）,” attempting to theorize its oft-repeated assertion that China has its own approach todemocracy suited to its national circumstances. Similarly, the “new political party system（新型政国際問題 No. 711（2023 年 2 月）● 59

Summary党制度）” white paper issued on the political consultative system as a component of “Chinese-styledemocracy” critically compared it with the “old political party system” in the West. Although thesearguments do not necessarily reflect the realities of China’s political system and do not conform to
the existing logic of comparative politics, they have strategic significance diplomatically as theantithesis of the U.S. political system. This paper discusses the fictionality of these arguments andthe effectiveness of this approach in foreign policy based on the Xi administration’s official position
on “Chinese-style democracy”.

3 Will China’s Growth Strategy Be Recalibrated?:
Economic Challenges Awaiting the Xi Jinping Administration in its Third TermToshiya Tsugami（Visiting Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs; Contemporary China
Researcher; President, Tsugami Workshop）
The Chinese economy is now suffering an acute case of economic stagnation caused by China’s
zero-COVID policy and a more serious chronic case of a real estate crisis at once. Real estate andinfrastructure construction have played major roles in the growth of China’s economy, but the costsof over-reliance on them are erupting in various aspects of the economy.
The Xi Jinping administration has repeatedly attempted to break away from a reliance on debt andinvestment but has failed each time. It has severely tightened credit in response to the real estate
bubble since the summer of 2020, but this led to an unexpected plunge in macroeconomic growthsince the second half of 2021 and, as in Japan after its own bubble burst, the Chinese governmenthas been forced to use public finances to plug the holes since then.
Overinvestment and excessive debt over the years have distorted the distribution of wealth, resulting in a widening gap between the “haves and have-nots” and a failure to pass on more fruits ofgrowth to the high-growth private sectors, which are the textbook causes of the middle-income trap.
Drastic solutions to these problems will require painful reforms that will prove difficult to implement.
Xi Jinping called for pursuing “the Two Centenaries” and raising per capita GDP to the level of
middle-income developed countries by 2035 at the twentieth Party Congress. But his third term
administration is facing a situation in which sustaining growth is difficult.

4 A World Dividing into Blocs and China’s Global South Policy
Rumi Aoyama（Professor, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University）
What are China’s foreign policy priorities and how is China, which adopts a non-alliance policy,
deepening its relations with other countries? Is the world dividing into blocs? In order to elucidate
these questions, this paper first analyzes the direction of China’s foreign policy as presented at the20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China held in Beijing on October 16-22, 2022, andthen clarifies the diplomatic developments of China’s foreign policy in recent years.
The current foreign policy has markedly departed from the omnidirectional diplomacy that followed the reform and opening-up policy. The Xi Jinping regime’s foreign policy is strongly ideological, and is based on cooperation with Russia and confrontation with Western industrializedcountries. Against this backdrop, China has placed its policy priority on the Global South with thegoal of defending the interests of developing countries. China is strengthening its relations with thecountries of the Global South without creating alliances, and this relationship building is likely tomake the conflict between democracy versus authoritarianism and dictatorships more evident in thefuture.

国際問題 No. 711（2023 年 2 月）● 60

Summary

5 The 50th Anniversary of the Normalization of Diplomatic Relations
between Japan and China:
Is it Possible to Rebuild Constructive and Stable Relations?
Yuji Miyamoto（Chairperson, Miyamoto Institute of Asian Research; Former Ambassador ofJapan to China）
The rise of China has become a major factor for change in the international community. The conflict
between the U.S. and China, which has become more intense and protracted, should be viewed
essentially as a traditional great power rivalry. Policy toward China must be built on the premise that
China will continue to change. Sustained economic development remains vital to China, compellingthe country to maintain the current international order while trying its best to modify this order to its
advantage. Japan-China relations can presently be defined as a relationship of strategic reciprocity
premised on the existing international order, with an additional and increasingly significant pillar of
security featuring territorial disputes and a Chinese military buildup. While this security pillar is taking on even greater importance, we should recall that the current international order of the 21st century strongly demands cooperation on global issues and we should therefore seek greater
cooperation and collaboration in other pillars such as diplomacy and economic affairs to restore balance to Japan-China relations. Diplomacy should play a vital role in the way that Japan and China
contribute to world peace and development.

国際問題 No. 711（2023 年 2 月）● 61