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国際問題 INTERNATIONAL
No. 709, October 2022

Focus: The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the World（Summary）
Essay: Reconsidering the Invasion of Ukraine
Nobuo Shimotomai（Emeritus Professor, Hosei University; Distinguished Professor, Kanagawa
University）
The war called special military operation against Ukraine that Putin had estimated would be overin two days has begun to turn into a global conflict that soon have surpassed seven months.
However, the relationship between the two countries is both an old one, dating back to the 10th century, and a new one, to which can be added the civilizational dimension of Orthodox Church andChristianity. The CIS Charter, which deals with the disposition of strategic nuclear forces at the timeof the Soviet Union s collapse, and the circumstances surrounding the formation of the Soviet
Union before the Charter are intertwined. Furthermore, the deterioration of East-West relations after
the Cold War, including such factors as the eastward expansion of NATO came into the picture. As
are result, with the mosaic nature of Ukraine, NATO involvement is already a reality even if theUnited States denies NATO membership for Ukraine. It has been said that the G7 s attempt to prevent Russia s intervention through economic sanctions has led to a rise in energy prices, which has
paradoxically helped stabilize the Russian economy. Moreover, the unity of the G7 and NATO has
accelerated relations between non-member states and Russia, deepening division among the Groupof 20 and polarizing the world both politically and economically.

1 Changing the Status Quo by Force:
The Framework of Conflict in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Atsushi Ishida（Professor, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo）
Since war is a conflict over the status quo, peace is impossible without a clear understanding of its
structure. What changes do the belligerents attempt to make to the status quo by force rather than bynegotiation and what aspects of the pre-war status quo do they attempt to restore? The purpose ofthis paper is to explore the conditions for peace by reexamining the Russian invasion of Ukraine interms of（1）a separatist conflict and（2）failed coercive diplomacy. Change of the status quo byforce, unless contested, will thwart convergent expectation on normatively appropriate behavior
within the international community. In that sense, a cease-fire agreement between the parties will
not restore a lasting peace unless it is complemented by efforts by the international community torebuild a framework for coexistence. I would like to reiterate that at the core of that effort is the needfor individual states to refrain from unrestricted interpretations of the right to self-determination andself-defense.

2 The Ukraine Crisis and US-China Confrontation
Akio Takahara（Professor, Graduate Schools for Law and Politics, The University of Tokyo）
With major domestic political events in the form of the midterm elections in the US and the Party
Congress in China ahead, there is no prospect that the intensity of the competition between theUnited States and China will ease. The Russian invasion of Ukraine began and continues in the
midst of this competition. The US had continued to issue loud warnings prior to the invasion, but theChinese criticized the US, saying it was escalating tensions, creating panic and inciting a crisis until
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Summary

just before the invasion. Xi Jinping conveyed his approval of Putin s decision soon after the invasion but, as the fighting dragged on, dissent briefly surfaced in China. In the international community, a diplomatic contest between the United States and China unfolded at the successive summit
meetings of the Quad, NATO and BRICS.
However, those were not the only events in which the United States and China clashed; the visit
to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi developed into a situation in which missiles flew intowaters close to Japan. This article sheds light on the current state of the strategic competitionbetween the US and China by analyzing developments in US-China relations regarding the Russian
invasion of Ukraine and Pelosi s visit to Taiwan.

3 Russia s War in the Ukraine:
Implications for Energy and Food Security and Climate Change
Miranda A. Schreurs（Professor of Climate and Environmental Policy, Technical University ofMunich）
Russia s unprovoked and illegal attack of Ukraine has caused tremendous human suffering and displacement, rocked global energy and food markets, and contributed to rising inflation. In response tothe war, many democratic countries have slapped sanctions on Russia and are aiming to end theirdependence on Russian fossil fuels. Russia has retaliated by slowing the shipment of gas to Europe.
In the short-term, Europe s decision to restart mothballed coal-fired power plants to replace Russian
gas in electricity production could lead to higher carbon dioxide emissions should this reserve
capacity be put into use. But the war has also added a new sense of urgency to plans to transition to
low-carbon economies. The European Union, the United States and other countries see the war as
another reason to advance their clean energy transitions. A slew of new policies and programs havebeen introduced to promote energy savings, energy efficiency, and renewable energy. The cost of
the war has been tremendous and are a further factor in rising hunger around the world.

4 A Further Refugee Crisis and the International Community
Yukie Osa（Professor, Graduate School of Social Design Studies, Rikkyo University）
The crises and the impact that the conflict in Ukraine has brought to the international community areimmeasurable. Even the global environmental crisis, which should have been a pressing and urgent
top priority, has taken a backseat. Representative or symbolic of the innumerable crises brought onby the Ukrainian conflict is the unprecedented refugee crisis.
In discussing the refugee crisis in Ukraine and the response of the international community, thisarticle first overviews the issue of refugees and internally displaced persons（IDPs）that faced theworld before the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine. Next, the paper details the problem of refugees
and IDPs that Ukraine（and Russia）have faced since the outbreak of the Donbass conflict in 2014 .
This paper then summarizes the current situation of refugees and IDPs since February 24, and thecommonalities, differences, and characteristics of this crisis vis-a-vis those of other crises. Next, themeasures pursued by the international community in response to the Ukrainian refugee crisis will bediscussed. Finally, the paper examines the lessons and implications of the Ukrainian refugee crisis
for Japan s refugee policy.

5 Economic Sanctions and Russia
Shinichiro Tabata（Professor, Slavic-Eurasian Research Center, Hokkaido University）
Assuming that the war in Ukraine will be protracted and that the economic sanctions will continue,
Western oil and gas imports from Russia will approach nil in several years. Since the Russian econ国際問題 No. 709（2022 年 10 月）● 63

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omy has so far been very strongly dependent on oil and gas, Russia will be forced to consider altogether new economic development policies, basically aiming for a self-sufficient, import-substituting economy. National finance must also be drastically restructured because fiscal administration
based on oil and gas revenues as in the past will no longer be possible. Russia is likely to face anextremely severe situation as military expenditures and spending on economic measures and social
policies are expected to increase in the face of declining revenues. Fiscal deficits were heretofore
covered by the National Welfare Fund into which a portion of oil and gas revenues were allocatedbut, since this fund will be exhausted with no prospect of revenues being set aside for the fund infuture, financing budget deficits is expected to become quite challenging.

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