EGU24-7473

Developing Restoration Strategies for Dynamic Population Changes of Plant-Pollinator Networks
in a Warming Climate
111

Adrija Datta , Sarth Dubey , Udit Bhatia
1
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar - 382355, India

1. Introduction

5. Study Area and Datasets

7. Results● Pollination, vital for food system health, relies on animals for over
75% of cross-pollinated crops (FAO).
● In the past 25 years, 40% of insect pollinators face extinction dueto habitat loss, temperature fluctuations, and pesticide use (IBPES).
● United Nations have declared 2021-2030 as decade of ecosystem
restoration.
● Examining and addressing pollinator decline is crucial for thewell-being of people and the global agricultural ecosystem.
● To accomplish this, understanding plant-pollinator networks’dynamics under climate projection scenarios is imperative,
allowing evaluation of different restoration strategies for various
climatic zones.

Mean Pollinator Abundance

Pollinator Abundance

SSP2

SSP5

SSP5

TropicalTemperate

SSP2

Causes of Pollinator Decline

Effects of Pollinator Decline

Mediterranean

2. Research Overview
Temperature dependence

CMIP6

Temperate

TropicalRank Abundance Curve Analysis

Mediterranean
Temperate

Intervention Pathways

Extinction risk of species

8. Conclusions● Temperate areas see increased species abundance, while tropical and Mediterranean regions
experience declines under certain socioeconomic pathways.
● In temperate zone, species abundance tends to exhibit greater evenness compared toMediterranean and tropical regions, suggesting that tropical species might face higher
vulnerability. Also, it indicates that strategies for species restoration need to be tailored to thespecific abiotic conditions prevailing in each region.
● In temperate regions, managing multiple species in a network provides only marginal benefits,
while in tropical regions, adopting a multi-pollinator management approach leads to higherevenness.

● How environmental degradation due to temperature rise will affect the plant-pollinator
population and the dynamics of interdependent network?
● What would be the potential species abundance management strategy to delay the tipping pointof the network and increase the abundance of species upto a stable state?

4. Governing Equation●●●

TropicalTemperate
Mediterranean

MODELPlants

6. Methodology
INPUT

Lotka - Volterra Equation with Hollins type II Functional Response:

Plant Pollinator NetworkTemperature (CMIP6)

Lotka Volterra model with Holling type II functional response

No abundance
management

STRATEGYPollinators

Highest Degree PollinatorWith Abundance
management

OUTPUT● T= Temperature● T0= Optimum temperature● 𝞪opt, hopt, kopt , βopt= performanceat optimum temperature● Ak = Arrhenius constant

CMIP6 model (SSP2 and SSP5)
100km * 100 km (Monthly)
Near surface air temperature (tas)Parameters : temperature dependent

Base Case

Decreasing Environmental health ( ɤ0)

Top 10% Pollinator

Multiple Pollinator

Mean Abundance of species
Abundance Dynamics
Evenness of species in network

Temperature dynamics

dattaadrija@iitgn.ac.in

Future Scope:● Dynamic abundance management strategies for tropical, mediterranean and temperate region.
● Analyzing the cost-effective optimization of various abundance management strategies can offer
insights into which approach to prioritize, both ecologically and in terms of benefits.

References

Single Pollinator

Keystone species

Abundance of thatspecies constantParameters● Immigration(𝝻)● Mutualistic connections(di)● Trade off between degree andmutualistic strength(𝝳)● Presence of interaction(𝝴)Mediterranean

Climate Projection Pathways

3. Scientific Questions● Intrinsic growth rate(ɑ)● Inter/Intraspecificcompetition(𝛃)● Mutualistic strength(𝜸0)● Decay rate(𝞳)Tropical● FAO report: https://www.fao.org/3/i1046e/i1046e00.pdf● IBPES:https://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/spm_deliverable_3a_pollination_20170222.pdf● Bhandary, S., Deb, S., & Sharathi Dutta, P. (2023). Rising temperature drives tipping points inmutualistic networks. Royal Society Open Science, 10(2), 221363.
● Dillon, M., Wang, G. & Huey, R. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming. Nature 467,704–706 (2010).

Acknowledgement
The research is financially supported by Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, India