PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/658/Rev.1 
10 May 2012 
 
(12-2463) 
WORLD TRADE 2011, PROSPECTS FOR 2012 
Trade growth to slow in 2012 afte r strong decelera tion in 2011 
World trade expanded in 2011 by 5.0%, a sharp deceleration from the 2010 rebound of 13.8%, 
and growth will slow further still to 3.7% in 2012, 
WTO economists project. They attributed the 
slowdown to the global economy losing momentum due to a number of shocks, including the European 
sovereign debt crisis.  
 A significant braking of trade expansion had been 
forecast for 2011, but multiple economic setbacks 
during the year dampened growth beyond expectations and led to a stronger than anticipated 
easing in the fourth quarter.  
 “More than three years have passed since the trade 
collapse of 2008–09, but the world economy and trade 
remain fragile. The further slowing of trade expected in 2012 shows that the downside risks remain high.  
We are not yet out of the woods,” WTO Director 
General Pascal Lamy said.  
“The WTO has so far deterr ed economic nationalism, 
but the sluggish pace of recovery raises concerns that a steady trickle of restrictive trade measures could 
gradually undermine the benefits of trade openness. It 
is time to do no harm. WTO members should turn their attention to revitalizing the trading system and to 
ensuring such a scenario does not materialize.” 
 WTO economists cautioned that preliminary trade 
figures for 2011 and forecasts for 2012 ( Chart 1  and 
Table 4 ) were difficult to gauge due to the 
extraordinary levels of volatility in financial markets 
and in the broader economy for the last few years. 
 The preliminary figure of 5.0% for world merchandise 
MAIN POINTS 
 At 5.0%, trade growth slows in 
2011 following  13.8% rebound in 
2010. 
 Further slowing to 3.7% in 2012 , 
below the 5.4% 20‐year average. 
 Fragility and uncertainty  remain, 
with enhanced  downside  risk. 
 Shocks held back trade last year: 
European  debt crisis, Japanese 
tsunami, Thai floods. 
 Disasters  hit supply chains and 
production  in Japan, China and 
elsewhere.  
 EU may already be in recession  as 
global output growth eases. 
 Oil supply disruption  in Libya cut 
African export growth by 8% 
 Growth in manufactured  goods 
trade slowed by Q4, trade in 
automotive  products fell to single 
digits and electronics  trade 
declined. 
 Arab spring uprisings also hit 
African services exports due to 
sharp declines in Egypt, Tunisia. PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 2 of 25 
 
 
  trade growth in 2011 is down 0.8 points from their most recent forecast update in September 
2011. These figures are in “real” terms, ie, adjust ed to account for inflation and exchange rate 
fluctuations.  
 
Chart 1: Growth in volume of world merchandise  trade and GDP, 2005‐13 a
(Annual % change)
a  Figures for 2012 and 2013 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.‐15.0‐10.0‐5.00.05.010.015.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013PExports
GDPAverageexport 
growth 1991-2011
AverageGDP growth 
1991-2011
 
 
The present trade forecast assumes global output growth of 2.1% in 2012 at market exchange 
rates, down from 2.4% in 2011, based on a consensus of economic forecasters. However, there 
are severe downside risks for growth that could have even greater negative consequences for trade if they came to pass. These include a stee per than expected downturn in Europe, financial 
contagion related to the sovereign debt crisis, rapidly rising oil prices, and geopolitical risks. 
 Recent production data suggest that the Europe an Union may already be in recession, and even 
China’s dynamic economy appears to be growing more slowly in 2012. Economic prospects have 
improved in the United States and Japan as labour market conditions improve in the former and business orders pick up in the latter, but these positives will only partly make up for the earlier 
negatives.  
 Developed economies exceeded expectations with export growth of 4.7% in 2011 while developing 
economies (for the purposes of the analysis this includes the Commonwealth of Independent 
States, or CIS) did worse than expected, recording an increase of just 5.4%.  In fact, shipments 
from developing economies other than China grew at slightly slower pace than exports from the 
developed economies that included disaster-struck Japan.  The relatively strong performance of 
developed economies was driven by a robust 7.2% increase in exports from the United States, as well as a 5.0% expansion in exports from the European Union.  Meanwhile, Japan's 0.5% drop in 
exports detracted from the average fo r developed economies overall.   
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 3 of 25 
 
 
  Several adverse developments disproportionately affected developing economies, including the 
interruption of oil supplies from Libya that caused African exports to tumble 8% last year, and the 
severe flooding that hit Thailand in the fourth qu arter. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami also 
disrupted global supply chains, which penalized ex ports from developing countries like China, as 
reduced shipments of components hindered produc tion of goods for export. (See quarterly volume 
developments for selected economies in Appendix Chart 1 .) 
 
Significant exchange rate fluctuations occurred during the year, which shifted the competitive 
positions of some major traders and prompted policy responses (e.g. Switzerland, Brazil). 
Fluctuations were driven in large part by attitudes toward risk related to the euro sovereign debt 
crisis. The value of the US dollar fell 4.6% in nominal terms against a broad basket of currencies 
according to data from the Federal Reserve, and 4.9% in real terms according to data from the 
International Monetary Fund, making US goods generally less expensive in export. Nominal US 
dollar depreciation also would have inflated the dollar values of some international transactions. 
 The developments outlined above refer to trade in real terms, but nominal flows for both 
merchandise and commercial services were simila rly affected by recent economic shocks.  
 In 2011, the dollar value of world merchandise trade advanced 19% to $18.2 trillion, surpassing 
the previous peak of $16.1 trillion from 2008. Mu ch of the growth was due to higher commodity 
prices, but monthly trade flows were mostly flat or declining in many major traders over the course of the year (See monthly nominal developments in Appendix Chart 2 .)  
 
The share of developing economies and the CIS in the world total also rose to 47% on the export 
side and 42% on the import side, the highest levels ever recorded in a data series extending back 
to 1948. 
 The value of world commercial services exports increased by 11% in 2011 to $4.2 trillion, with 
strong differences in annual growth rates for particular countries and regions. African exports were 
hit hard by the turmoil in Arab countries, recording zero growth as Egypt’s exports of travel services plunged more than 30%. New quarterly data on services jointly prepared by the WTO and 
UNCTAD also displayed a sharp slowdown in the four th quarter coinciding with the heightened level 
of financial market turmoil surrounding the euro debt crisis (See news story : 
www.wto.org/english/news_e/news12_e/stts_20mar12_e.htm ).  
 
Additional perspective on the trade forecast 
The WTO’s projected 3.7% growth rate for world merchandise trade in 2012 is below the long-
term average of 6.0% for 1990–2008, and it is even below the average over the last 20 years 
including the period of the trade collapse (5.5%). Should it come to pass, the baseline forecast for 2012 and 2013 would not bring the volume of world trad e any closer to its pre-crisis trend. In fact, 
the gap should grow larger as long as the rate of  trade expansion continues to fall short of earlier 
levels ( Chart 2 ).  
 PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 4 of 25 
 
 
  Chart 2: Volume of world merchandise  exports , 1990‐2013 a
Indices, 1990=100
a  Figures for 2012 and 2013 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.50100150200250300350400
1990
199119921993
1994
1995199619971998
1999
2000200120022003
2004
200520062007
2008
200920102011
2012P
2013PExport volume
Forecast
Trend (1990‐2008)
 
 
 
Eliminating this divergence would require faster than average growth at some point in the future. 
Conceivably, this could happen after governments, businesses and households in developed 
countries reduce their debt burdens to more mana geable levels, but this process of deleveraging 
(reducing reliance on debt) and fiscal consolidation (reducing budget deficits) is likely to take years. In the meantime, the world may have to resign itself to a long period of slower-than-
average growth in international trade.  
 
The state of the world economy and trade in 2011 
Economic growth 
The rate of world output growth fell to 2.4% in 2011 from 3.8% in the previous year, weighed 
down by the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, supply chain disruptions from natural 
disasters in Japan and Thailand, and turmoil in Arab countries. This pace of expansion was well 
below the 3.2% average over the 20 years leading up to the financial crisis in 2008 ( Table 1 ). 
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 5 of 25 
 
 
  Table 1: GDP and merchandise  trade by region, 2009‐11
Annual % change
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
World ‐2.6 3.8 2.4 ‐12.0 13.8 5.0 ‐12.9 13.7 4.9
North America ‐3.6 3.2 1.9 ‐14.8 14.9 6.2 ‐16.6 15.7 4.7
United States ‐3.5 3.0 1.7 ‐14.0 15.4 7.2 ‐16.4 14.8 3.7
South and Central America  a ‐0.3 6.1 4.5 ‐8.1 5.6 5.3 ‐16.5 22.9 10.4
Europe ‐4.1 2.2 1.7 ‐14.1 10.9 5.0 ‐14.1 9.7 2.4
European  Union (27) ‐4.3 2.1 1.5 ‐14.5 11.5 5.2 ‐14.1 9.5 2.0
Commonwealth  of
 Independent  States (CIS) ‐6.9 4.7 4.6 ‐4.8 6.0 1.8 ‐28.0 18.6 16.7
Africa 2.2 4.6 2.3 ‐3.7 3.0 ‐8.3 ‐5.1 7.3 5.0
Middle East 1.0 4.5 4.9 ‐4.6 6.5 5.4 ‐7.7 7.5 5.3
Asia ‐0.1 6.4 3.5 ‐11.4 22.7 6.6 ‐7.7 18.2 6.4
China 9.2 10.4 9.2 ‐10.5 28.4 9.3 2.9 22.1 9.7
Japan ‐6.3 4.0 ‐0.5 ‐24.9 27.5 ‐0.5 ‐12.2 10.1 1.9
India 6.8 10.1 7.8 ‐6.0 22.0 16.1 3.6 22.7 6.6
Newly industrialized
 economies  (4)  b ‐0.6 8.0 4.2 ‐5.7 20.9 6.0 ‐11.4 17.9 2.0
Memo: Developed  economies ‐4.1 2.9 1.5 ‐15.1 13.0 4.7 ‐14.4 10.9 2.8
Memo: Developing  and CIS 2.2 7.2 5.7 ‐7.4 14.9 5.4 ‐10.5 18.1 7.9
a  Includes the Caribbean.
b  Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore  and Chinese Taipei.
Source:  WTO Secretariat.GDP Exports Imports
 
 
Japan’s 0.5% contraction in output, brought on by the 
catastrophic earthquake in March of last year, contributed to the lacklustre 1.5% growth of developed 
economies in 2011. Growth of gross domestic product 
(GDP, total production in the country) in the United States was slightly faster than the average of all 
developed economies at 1.7%, while the EU’s rate was 
in line with the average at 1.5%.   
The fastest growing regions were the Middle East at 
4.9%, followed by the Commonwealth of Independent States at 4.6% and South and Central America at 4.5%. 
Africa, with GDP growth of 2.3%, might have grown 
even faster but for the uprisings that occurred in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere. 
 
Once again, China’s GDP growth outpaced the rest of the world at 9.2%, but this rate was no better than 
what the country achieved at the peak of the global 
financial crisis in 2009. In contrast to this performance, the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong 
(China), the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Chinese 
Taipei together grew at less than half the rate of China (4.2%). Developing economies and the CIS together 
recorded a 5.7% increase in 2011 
FAST GROWING  ECONOMIES  2011 
 Middle East — 4.9% 
 CIS — 4.6% 
 South‐Central America — 4.5% 
 China — 9.2% 
 Four Asian NIEs — 4.2% 
SLOW GROWING  ECONOMIES  2011 
 Japan — minus 0.5% 
 United States — 1.7% 
 European  Union — 1.5% 
 
FORTH QUARTER  DEVELOPMENTS  
(Annual rates) 
 Euro area — minus 1.3% 
 Japan — minus 0.7% 
 United States—3.0%  
 China—8.2%,  down from 9.5% in 
third quarter. 
 PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 6 of 25 
 
 
   
Aggregate quarterly figures for world GDP growth ar e not readily available, but such growth likely 
slowed toward the end of the year in the face of headwinds from the European sovereign debt 
crisis. Economies using the euro currency (officially referred to as the euro area) contracted at the 
equivalent of a 1.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, marking the first quarter of negative 
growth since the currency bloc emerged from recession in 2009 ( Chart 3 ). At the same time, 
China’s economy slowed and Japan remained mired in recession. Growth picked up in the United 
States in the fourth quarter as unemployment eased, but this was likely outweighed by 
developments elsewhere. 
 
 
Chart 3: Real GDP growth and trade of euro area economies,  2008‐11
Annualized  % change over previous quarter
Source: OECD Quarterly  national accounts.‐120‐100‐80‐60‐40‐200204060
‐12.0‐10.0‐8.0‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.0
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q32008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q22009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q22011Q3
2011Q4GDP
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
 
 
Merchandise trade in volume (i.e., real) terms 
World merchandise trade volume grew 5.0% in 2011, and Asia’s 
6.6% increase led all regions ( Table 1 ). One of the more 
significant developments in 2011 was the 8.3% contraction in the 
volume of Africa’s exports. This was largely due to the civil war in 
Libya, which reduced the country’s oil shipments by an estimated 75%. Japan’s exports also fell by the same 0.5% as the country’s 
GDP, while shipments from th e CIS advanced just 1.8%. 
 Although Africa recorded a respectable 5.0% increase in imports, 
other resource exporting regions performed better. Imports of the 
CIS grew faster than those of any other region at 16.7%, followed by South and Central America’s at 10.4%. Meanwhile, Japan’s 
import growth was the slowest of any major economy or region 
last year at 1.9%.  
 
TRADE VOLUME HIGHLIGHTS  
FASTEST GROWING  EXPORTS  
 India — 16.1% 
 China — 9.2% 
 United States —7.2% 
DECLINING  EXPORTS  
 Africa — minus 8.3% 
 Japan — minus 0.5% 
 Philippines  — minus 14.3% 
FASTEST GROWING  IMPORTS  
 China — 9.7% 
 India — 6.6% 
DECLINING  IMPORTS  
 Greece — around minus 20% 
 Chinese Taipei —around  
minus 3%  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 7 of 25 
 
 
  India had the fastest export growth among major traders in 2011, with shipments rising 16.1%. 
Meanwhile, China had the second fastest export growth of many major economy at 9.3%.  
 The combination of low export volume growth and high import volume growth seen in the 
Commonwealth of Independent States in 2011 can be attributed to the 32% rise in energy prices 
for the year, which boosted export earnings and allowed more foreign goods to be imported  (Table 2 ). 
 
Table 2: World prices of selected primary products,  2000‐11
Annual % change and $/barrel
2009 2010 2011 2000 ‐11 2005 ‐11
All commodities ‐30 26 26 12 14
Metals ‐19 48 14 15 18
Beverages  a‐15 11 20 8 11
F o o d 2 1 41 71 01 3
Agricultural  raw materials ‐17 33 23 5 9
Energy ‐37 26 32 15 15
Memo: Crude oil price in $/barrel b62 79 104 56 76
a  Comprising  coffee, cocoa beans and tea.
b   Average of Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate.
Source: IMF International  Financial Statistics. 
 
Appendix Chart 1  shows seasonally adjusted quarterly merchandise trade volumes for selected 
economies, revealing some of the dynamics of changes that occurred in 2011. The decline in 
extra-EU imports measured -3.8% in Q4, equivalent  to -14.4% at an annualized rate. Such a rate 
of decline is unlikely to go on for very long, but it helps to explain the weakness of exports of other 
economies at the time. Imports of the United States were flat rather than falling during 2011, but both the US and EU saw their exports rise over the course of the year. 
 
The other major development was the slump in Chinese imports that occurred around the time of the Japanese earthquake in the second quarter.  Between the first and second quarters, China’s 
imports dropped 6.1%, equivalent to 27% annually,  but in subsequent quarters trade rose 4.2% 
(18% annualized) and 7.3% (32% annualized). This  is consistent with a strong but relatively 
short-lived direct impact from the disaster, although other indirect influences might be just as 
important.  It also demonstrated the strong insertion of China in Asian value chains. 
 Although not shown in the charts, the volume of Thailand’s exports plunged 8.5% in the fourth 
quarter due to flooding that significantly affected exports of intermediate goods, further disturbing 
global production networks. 
 PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 8 of 25 
 
 
  Merchandise and commercial services trade in value (i.e., dollar) terms 
The total dollar value of world merchandise exports jumped 19% to $18.2 trillion in 2011 
(Table 3 ).1 This increase was nearly as large as the 22% rise in 2010 and was driven in large part 
by higher primary commodity prices.  
 
Commercial Services exports also grew 11% in 2011 to $4.1 trillion. The share of commercial services in total goods plus commercial services trade (technically, on a balance of payments 
basis) was 18.6, the smallest such share since 1990. 
 Transport services recorded the slowest growth of  any sub-category services (8%), followed by 
other commercial services (11%) and travel (9%). 
 
Table 3: World exports of merchandise  and commercial  services, 2005‐11
$bn and annual % change
Value 
2011 2009 2010 2011 2005 ‐11
Merchandise 18217 ‐22 22 19 10
Commercial  Services 4149 ‐11 10 11 9
Transport 855 ‐23 15 8 7
Travel 1063 ‐99 1 27
Other commercial  services 2228 ‐78 1 1 1 0
Source: WTO Secretariat  for merchandise  and WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats  for commercial  services .Annual % change
 
 
The slow growth of transport services is perhaps not surprising 
considering the close relationship between this category of services and trade in goods, which was stagnated in the second 
half of in 2011. An oversupply of new container ships may have 
also depressed revenues in the shipping sector.  
Appendix tables 1 to 6  provide detailed information on nominal 
merchandise and commercial services trade flows by region and 
for selected economies. They also include tables of leading 
exporters and importers with and without intra-EU trade. There 
were few significant moves up or down in world rankings this year. The Russian Federation went from being the 12th largest 
exporter of merchandise in 2010 to being the ninth in 2011 (including EU members). The United 
Kingdom replaced Germany as the world’s second largest exporter of services compared to last year's press release, but this was mainly due to a large upward revision in official statistics on 
                                               
1 World exports of goods measured on a balance of payments basis were up 20% in 2011. Balance of 
payments calculations provide trade figures based on  financial transactions fo r the goods and services. 
Normally, trade in goods figures use data compiled by customs authorities and reflect the physical movement 
of goods across borders, while BOP st atistics record transactions that in volve change of ownership. Therefore 
when figures combining or comparing goods and servic es are needed, balance of payments data are used. 
WORLD TRADE IN DOLLARS  
 Goods exports up 19% as 
commodity  prices rise 
 Services exports up 11% 
 Transport  exports up 8%, 
the slowest growing 
services sector  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 9 of 25 
 
 
  exports of other business services and financial services, which together make up roughly half of 
all UK commercial services exports. 
 There were some noteworthy developments at the country level for both merchandise and 
commercial services. Greece’s imports of goods were down 8% and exports were up 42%, which 
significantly narrowed the country’s merchandise tr ade deficit. In services, exports of Egypt and 
Tunisia fell 20% and 19%, respectively, in dollar  terms, which reduced Africa’s overall services 
growth for the year to 0%. 
 Maps 1  and 2 show shares of regions in world exports and imports of merchandise and commercial 
services. There were no dramatic changes in regional shares in world trade in manufactures. Asia’s 
share in world imports of manufactures gained slightly at the expense of Europe while it made small gains at the expense of North America in commercial services. 
Sectoral developments 
Prices for traded manufactured goods have tended  to be more stable than those of primary 
products, both before and after the economic crisis. As a result, movements in nominal trade flows 
reflect changes in quantities reasonably well. With this in mind, Chart 4  shows year-on-year 
growth in the quarterly value of world trade in several classes of manufactured goods.  
 
All types of manufactured goods saw year-over-year  growth fall toward zero over the course of 
2011. For example, world trade in automotive products slid from 44% in the first quarter of 2010 to 10% in fourth quarter of 2011. Office and teleco m equipment went from positive to negative, as 
year-on-year growth rates fell from around plus 14%  in the first quarter to minus 2% in the fourth 
quarter. 
 
Chart 4: Quarterly  World exports of manufactured  goods by product, 2008Q1‐2011Q4
Year‐on‐year % change
Source: WTO Secretatriat  estimates  based on mirror data for avialable reporters  in the 
Global Trade Atlas database,  Global Trade Information  Systems.‐60‐40‐200204060
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q12009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q42010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q22011Q3
2011Q4Iron and steel Chemicals
Automotive  products Office and telecom equipment
Industrial  machinery Textiles and clothing
 
 PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 10 of 25 
 
 
  Exchange rates  
The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc both recorded significant nominal appreciations against the 
US dollar in 2011. The yen was up 10% year-on-year, partly due to the safe haven role of the currency during times of uncertainty. Meanwhile the franc jumped 17%, prompting interventions 
by the Swiss National Bank in currency markets to forcing down the value of the currency, 
especially against the euro. The Brazilian real was also up 5.4% against the dollar, and the Chinese yuan and Korean won rose 4.7% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite the sovereign debt crisis 
in Europe, the euro appreciated 5% against the dollar. ( Chart 6 ) 
 
Nominal exchange rates such as these may over - or under-state the competitive effects of 
exchange rate movements. As a result, “real effect ive” rates that average the exchange value of a 
currency against many trading partners while adjusting for differences in inflation rates may provide a better indication of the co mpetitiveness of a country’s exports. 
 
Real effective exchange rates supplied by the In ternational Monetary Fund show that the US 
dollar’s depreciation in 2011 was even stronger in  real effective terms (–4.9%) than in nominal 
terms. On the other hand, the average appreciati on of other major currencies was overstated. The 
Japanese yen only appreciated 1.7% in real terms while the Chinese yuan rose 2.7%. Brazil’s currency registered a strong increase of 4.7% in re al effective terms, while the euro’s rise of 1.8% 
was relatively small.  
 
Chart 5: Nominal dollar exchange  rates, January 2005 ‐ February 2012
Indices of US dollars per unit of national currency, 2000=100
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.5075100125150175
Jan‐05
Jun‐05
Nov‐05
Apr‐06
Sep‐06
Feb‐07
Jul‐07
Dec‐07
May‐08
Oct‐08
Mar‐09
Aug‐09
Jan‐10
Jun‐10
Nov‐10
Apr‐11
Sep‐11
Feb‐12Euro
Japan yen
UK pound
Switzerland  Franc
5075100125150175
Jan‐05
Jun‐05
Nov‐05
Apr‐06
Sep‐06
Feb‐07
Jul‐07
Dec‐07
May‐08
Oct‐08
Mar‐09
Aug‐09
Jan‐10
Jun‐10
Nov‐10
Apr‐11
Sep‐11
Feb‐12China yuan
Korea won
Brazil real
India rupee PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 11 of 25 
 
 
   
Prospects for 2012 and 2013 
The outlook for world trade darkened in recent months as 
the euro sovereign debt crisis threatened to undermine 
global growth. The agreement on a debt restructuring plan 
for Greece has provided some respite for governments, but at least a mild recession in the European Union may now be 
looming, with negative consequences for global trade and 
output. Emerging and developing countries would certainly be adversely affected by falling import demand in the 
European Union, which is the single largest market for their 
exports.   
In light of this information, WTO economists are forecasting 
a slowdown in merchandise trade volume growth to 3.7% in 2012, with 2.0% export growth anticipated for developed 
economies and 5.6% for developing economies (including 
the Commonwealth of Independent States). On the import side, the WTO is projecting 1.9% growth for developed 
countries and 6.2% for developing economies and CIS. 
(See Table 4.)  
Figures for 2013 are provisional estimates based on 
assumptions about the longer term trajectory of gross domestic product (GDP, total production in a country) and 
should be interpreted with an appropriate degree of 
caution. World trade volume for that year is expected to recover to 5.6%. Exports of developed and developing 
economies should increase by 4.1% and 7.2%, 
respectively. On the import side, developed economies should record growth of 3.9% while de veloping economies should advance 7.8%. 
 
Overall, risks to the current forecast are firmly on the downside. A deeper recession in the euro 
area would increase social transfer payments, deprive cash strapped governments of much needed 
revenue, and cast doubt on the ability and willingn ess of countries to service their debts. This 
would drive up borrowing costs for countries with challenging finances and reinforce any downturn.   
Rising commodity prices also constitute a risk factor, but their distributional effects are more 
ambiguous. High oil prices in particular constrain economic activity and are associated with recessions in importing countries. However, buoyant prices also boost the export earnings of 
resource producers, which are disproportionately emerging and developing economies. 
 Finally, geopolitical risks and natural disasters ar e always a possibility, although their timing and 
location is inherently unpredictable. 
 
 
 
2012 FORECAST  
 World merchandise  trade 
growth — 3.7% 
 Developed  economies  — 2.0% 
export growth, 1.9% import 
growth 
 Developing  economies  + CIS— 
5.6% export growth, 6.2% 
import growth  
DOWNSIDE  RISK 
 Eurozone  — deeper recession  
would worsen financial strain 
 Rising commodity  prices — 
also a risk but with mixed 
impact 
POSSIBLE  UPSIDE (less likely) 
 Sovereign  debt crisis eases 
 Stronger US recovery boosts 
global import demand 
 Japan also stages moderate  
recovery.  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 12 of 25 
 
 
  Table 4: World merchandise  trade and GDP, 2008‐2013 a
Annual % change
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
Volume of world merchandise  trade 2.3‐12.0 13.8 5.0 3.7 5.6
Exports
Developed  economies 0.9 ‐15.1 13.0 4.7 2.0 4.1
Developing  economies  and CIS 4.2 ‐7.5 14.9 5.4 5.6 7.2
Imports
Developed  economies ‐1.1‐14.4 10.9 2.8 1.9 3.9
Developing  economies  and CIS 8.6 ‐10.5 18.1 7.9 6.2 7.8
Real GDP at market exchange  rates (2005) 1.3 ‐2.6 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.7
Developed  economies 0.0 ‐4.0 2.8 1.5 1.1 1.8
Developing  economies  and CIS 5.6 2.2 7.2 5.7 5.0 5.4
a Figures for 2012 and 2013 projections.
Sources: WTO Secretariat  for trade, concensus  estimates  for GDP. 
 
Upside scenarios are less likely but still possible. A conceivable one would see sovereign debt fears 
dissipating after the orderly restructuring of Greek government debt, and a stronger U.S. economy 
propping up global demand and boosting export s of emerging and developing economies. With 
luck this would lead to a virtuous circle of improving economic conditions and expanding trade.   
However, the most likely outcome remains a mild recession in Europe, slower growth in developing 
countries and moderate recoveries in the United States and Japan.  
The trade forecast assumes world GDP growth of 2.1% for 2012, with developed economies 
slowing to 1.1% and the rest of the world gr owing at a 5.0% annual rate. The 2013 projection 
assumes a quickening of global growth to 2.7% , with developed economies gaining 1.8% and the 
rest of the world advancing 5.4%. The output figures above refer to real GDP at market exchange 
rates based on consensus estimates of economic forecasters.
2 
 
The above estimates of export growth are backed  up by the results of the WTO Secretariat’s 
quarterly time series forecasting model, which pr edicts a 2.0% increase in demand for imported 
goods and services in 2012 on the part of developed economies (or more precisely, the members 
of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) (Chart 6).3 
 
 
 
                                               
2 The IMF World Economic Outlook, the OECD Economic Outlook, the UN DESA World Economic Situation and 
Prospects and other national sources  
3 Keck, Alexander, Raubold, Alexander and Truppia, Alessa ndro (2009) "Forecasting international trade: A time 
series approach', OECD Journal: Journa l of Business Cycle Measurement and Analys is, vol. 2: 157-176. The model has been 
extended and further improved since publication and also includes estimations for emerging economies, such as China.   PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 13 of 25 
 
 
  Chart 6: GDP and import demand for OECD countries,  2008Q1‐2012Q4 a
Annualized  % change over previous quarter
a: Figures for 2012 are projections.
Source: OECD for trade and GDP through 2011Q4.  Concensus  estimates  of forecating  agencies for GDP
projections  and WTO Secretariat  for trade forecasts.‐10.0‐8.0‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.0
‐50.0‐40.0‐30.0‐20.0‐10.00.010.020.030.0
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q32008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q22009Q32009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q32012Q4GDP (right scale)
projected
Imports (left scale)
projected
 
 
As above, quarterly GDP assumptions are taken from consensus estimates of forecasting agencies. 
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 14 of 25 Map 1: Merchandise exports and imports by region a, 2011 
 
 
a Values and shares include intra-EU trade. Note: Colours and boundaries do not imply any judgement on the part of WT O as to the legal status or  frontier of any territory.  
Source: WTO Secretariat. 
 
 
N AMERICA  
Exports 
 up 16% 
 $2.28 trillion 
 13% of world total 
Imports 
 up 15% 
 $3.09 trillion 
 17% of world total 
S‐C AMERICA  
Exports 
 up 34% 
 $749 billion 
 4% of world total 
Imports 
 up 24% 
 $727 billion 
 4% of world total EUROPE
Exports 
 up 17% 
 $6.60 trillion 
 37% of world total 
Imports 
 up 17% 
 $6.85 trillion 
 38% of world total COMMONWEALTH  OF 
INDEPENDENT  STATES
Exports 
 up 34% 
 $788 billion 
 4% of world total 
Imports 
 up 30% 
 $540 billion 
 3% of world total 
AFRICA
Exports 
 up 17% 
 $597 billion 
 3% of world total 
Imports 
 up 18% 
 $555 billion 
 3% of world total MIDDLE EAST
Exports 
 up 37% 
 $1.23 trillion 
 7% of world total 
Imports 
 up 16% 
 $665 billion 
 4% of world total ASIA
Exports 
 up 18% 
 $5.53 trillion 
 31% of world total 
Imports 
 up 23% 
 $5.57 trillion 
 31% of world total 
WTO members  
WTO observers  
Others  
   PRESS/658/Rev.1
 Page 15 of 25Map 2: Exports and imports of commercial services by region, 2011 
 
 
a Values and shares include intra-EU trade. Note: Colours and boundaries do not imply any judgement on the part of WT O as to the legal status or  frontier of any territory.  
Source: WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats. 
 
 
N AMERICA  
Exports 
 up 10% 
 $668 billion 
 16% of world total 
Imports 
 up 8% 
 $516 billion 
 13% of world total 
S‐C AMERICA  
Exports 
 up 14% 
 $130 billion 
 3% of world total 
Imports 
 up 18% 
 $163 billion 
 4% of world total EUROPE
Exports 
 up 10% 
 $1.96 trillion 
 47% of world total 
Imports 
 up 8% 
 $1.60 trillion 
 42% of world total COMMONWEALTH  OF 
INDEPENDENT  STATES
Exports 
 up 20% 
 $96 billion 
 2% of world total 
Imports 
 up 21% 
 $133 billion 
 3% of world total 
AFRICA
Exports 
 up 0% 
 $85 billion 
 2% of world total 
Imports 
 up 9% 
 $149 billion 
 4% of world total MIDDLE EAST
Exports 
 up 10% 
 $111 biillion 
 3% of world total 
Imports 
 up 10% 
 $210 billion 
 5% of world total ASIA
Exports 
 up 12% 
 $1.10 trillion 
 26% of world total 
Imports 
 up 14% 
 $1.09 trillion 
 28% of world total 
WTO members  
WTO observers  
Others PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 16 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Table 1
World merchandise trade by region and selected economies, 2011
$bn and %
Value Value
2011 2005-11 2009 2010 2011 2011 2005-11 2009 2010 2011
World 17779 10 -23 22 20 18000 9 -23 21 19
North America 2283 8 -21 23 16 3090 5 -25 23 15
United States 1481 9 -18 21 16 2265 5 -26 23 15
Canada  a 452 4 -31 23 17 462 6 -21 22 15
Mexico 350 9 -21 30 17 361 8 -24 28 16
South and Central America  b 749 13 -23 26 27 727 16 -25 30 24
Brazil 256 14 -23 32 27 237 20 -27 43 24
Other South and Central America  b 493 12 -24 22 27 490 14 -25 24 25
Europe 6601 7 -22 12 17 6854 7 -25 13 17
European Union (27) 6029 7 -22 12 17 6241 7 -25 13 16
Germany 1474 7 -23 12 17 1254 8 -22 14 19
France 597 4 -21 8 14 715 6 -22 9 17Netherlands 660 8 -22 15 15 597 9 -24 17 16
United Kingdom 473 4 -23 15 17 636 4 -24 16 13
Italy 523 6 -25 10 17 557 6 -26 17 14
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 788 15 -36 31 34 540 17 -33 24 30
Russian Federation  a 522 14 -36 32 30 323 17 -34 30 30
Africa 597 11 -30 29 17 555 14 -15 15 18
South Africa 97 11 -24 31 20 122 12 -27 27 29
Africa less South Africa 500 12 -31 29 17 433 14 -12 12 15
Oil exporters  c 331 11 -38 34 15 160 15 -9 8 11Non oil exporters 169 13 -14 21 20 274 14 -14 15 18
Middle East 1228 15 -31 27 37 665 12 -15 13 16Asia 5534 12 -18 31 18 5568 13 -20 33 23
China 1899 16 -16 31 20 1743 18 -11 39 25
Japan 823 6 -26 33 7 854 9 -28 26 23
India 297 20 -15 33 35 451 21 -20 36 29Newly industrialized economies (4)  d 1290 10 -17 30 16 1302 10 -24 32 18
Memorandum
MERCOSUR  e 354 14 -22 29 26 334 20 -28 43 25
ASEAN  f 1244 11 -18 29 18 1151 11 -23 31 21
EU (27) extra-trade 2131 8 -20 17 19 2344 8 -27 19 17
Least developed countries (LDCs) 203 16 -25 27 25 202 15 -5 11 19
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.
b. Includes the Caribbean.  For composition of groups see the Technical Notes of WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2011.
c. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.d. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
e. Common Market of the Southern Cone: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay.
f. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thaila nd, Viet Nam.
Source: :  WTO Secretariat.Exports
Annual % changeImports
Annual % change
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 17 of 25 
 
 
   
Appendix Table 2
$bn and %
Value Value
201 1 2005-1 1 2009 201 0 201 1 201 1 2005-1 1 2009 201 0 201 1
W o r l d  4 15 0 9 - 11 10 11 3 8 6 5 9 - 11 10 10
North America 668 8 -7 9 1 0 51 6 6 -8 8 8
United States 578 8 -6 9 1 1 391 6 -7 6 6
South and Central America  a 1 30 1 1 -8 1 5 1 4 1 63 1 5 -8 23 1 8
Brazil 37 1 6 -9 1 5 21 73 22 -1 36 22
E u r o p e 19 6 4 7 - 13 4 10 16 0 5 6 - 13 3 8
European Union (27)  b 1 762 7 -1 3 4 1 0 1 480 … -1 2 2 …
G e r m a n y 2 5 3 8 - 939 2 8 4 5 - 1 238
United Kingdom 274 5 -1 4 2 1 1 1 71 1 -1 9 1 7
F r a n c e 16 1 5 - 13 1 11 14 1 5 - 8 2 7
N e t h e r l a n d s 1 2 8 6- 9 4 1 1 1 1 8 6- 3- 21 2
Spain 1 41 7 -1 4 1 1 4 91 5 -1 7 0 5
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 96 1 5 -1 7 1 3 20 1 33 1 5 -1 9 1 9 21
Russian Federation 54 1 4 -1 9 8 22 90 1 6 -20 22 24
U k r a i n e 19 13 - 2 3 2 4 13 14 13 - 3 0 10 19
A f r i c a 8 5 7 - 10 11 0 14 9 13 - 12 10 9
South Africa 1 5 5 -6 1 7 8 20 9 -1 3 25 1 3
Egypt 1 9 5 -1 4 1 1 -20 1 3 5 -22 2 0
M o r o c c o 1 4 1 1 - 72 1 4 6 1 3 - 681 1
M i d d l e  E a s t 111 … - 3 6 10 2 10 … - 7 9 10
Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 1 2 … 3 1 0 1 7 55 … -5 8 8
Israel 26 7 -1 0 1 3 6 20 7 -1 4 6 1 4
A s i a 10 9 6 13 - 11 2 3 12 10 9 1 11 - 10 2 1 14
China 1 82 1 6 -1 2 32 7 236 1 9 0 22 23
Japan 1 43 6 -1 4 1 0 3 1 65 5 -1 2 6 6
India 1 48 1 9 -1 3 33 20 1 30 1 9 -9 45 1 2
S i n g a p o r e 12 5 14 - 6 2 0 12 110 12 - 9 2 2 15
Korea, Republic of 94 1 2 -1 9 1 9 8 98 9 -1 7 1 9 3
Hong Kong, China 1 21 1 1 -6 23 1 4 56 9 -7 1 6 1 0
Australia 50 9 -8 1 5 6 59 1 2 -1 3 22 1 8
M emorandum item
 Extra-EU(27) trade 789 8 -1 3 6 1 2 639 7 -1 3 4 8
a  Includes t he Caribbean.  For composit ion of  groups see Chapt er IV  M et adat a of  WTO Int ernat ional Trade St at ist ics, 2011.
…  indicat es unavailable or non-comparable f igures.
Source :  WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.Note:   While provisional f ull year dat a were available in early M arch f or 50 count ries account ing f or more t han t wo t hirds of  world commercial services trade, estimates 
for m ost oth e r cou n trie s a re  ba se d on  da ta  for th e  first th re e  qu a rte rs.World trade in commercial services by region and selected country, 2011
Exports Imports
Annual % change Annual % change
b  The EU's t ot al commercial services export s and import s exclude t he t ransact ions of  t he EU inst it ut ions in 2011.  The dif f ere nce when compared t o t he sum of  t he 
individual EU member st at es’ services export s is small but  it  is larger on t he import  side.  A ddit ionally, import s in 2011 also  exclude “ quasi-t ransit  t rade” , which account ed 
for 2.5 %  of the EU(27) total commercial services imports in 201 0. PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 18 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Table 3
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2011
$bn and %
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 China 1899 10.4 20 1 United States 2265 12.3 15
2 United States 1481 8.1 16 2 China 1743 9.5 253 Germany 1474 8.1 17 3 Germany 1254 6.8 194 Japan 823 4.5 7 4 Japan 854 4.6 23
5 Netherlands 660 3.6 15 5 France 715 3.9 17
6 France 597 3.3 14 6 United Kingdom 636 3.5 137 Korea, Republic of 555 3.0 19 7 Netherlands 597 3.2 168 Italy 523 2.9 17 8 Italy 557 3.0 14
9 Russian Federation 522 2.9 30 9 Korea, Republic of 524 2.9 23
10 Belgium 476 2.6 17 10 Hong Kong, China 511 2.8 16
- retained imports 130 0.7 16
11 United Kingdom 473 2.6 17 11 Canada  a 462 2.5 1512 Hong Kong, China 456 2.5 14 12 Belgium 461 2.5 17
- domestic exports 17 0.1 14
- re-exports 439 2.4 14
13 Canada 452 2.5 17 13 India 451 2.5 2914 Singapore 410 2.2 16 14 Singapore 366 2.0 18
- domestic exports 224 1.2 23 - retained imports  b 180 1.0 27
- re-exports 186 1.0 10
15 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  c 365 2.0 45 15 Spain 362 2.0 1116 Mexico 350 1.9 17 16 Mexico 361 2.0 1617 Taipei, Chinese 308 1.7 12 17 Russian Federation  a 323 1.8 30
18 Spain 297 1.6 17 18 Taipei, Chinese 281 1.5 12
19 India 297 1.6 35 19 Australia 244 1.3 2120 United Arab Emirates  c 285 1.6 30 20 Turkey 241 1.3 3021 Australia 271 1.5 27 21 Brazil 237 1.3 24
22 Brazil 256 1.4 27 22 Thailand 228 1.2 25
23 Switzerland 235 1.3 20 23 Switzerland 208 1.1 1824 Thailand 229 1.3 17 24 Poland 208 1.1 1725 Malaysia 227 1.2 14 25 United Arab Emirates  c 205 1.1 2826 Indonesia 201 1.1 27 26 Austria 192 1.0 20
27 Poland 187 1.0 17 27 Malaysia 188 1.0 14
28 Sweden 187 1.0 18 28 Indonesia 176 1.0 3029 Austria 179 1.0 17 29 Sweden 175 1.0 1830 Czech Republic 162 0.9 22 30 Czech Republic 151 0.8 20
Total of above  d 14835 81.4 - Total of above  d 15180 82.6 -
World  d 18215 100.0 19 World  d 18380 100.0 19
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.b. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.c. Secretariat estimates.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
- indicates non-applicable.Source: WTO Secretariat. PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 19 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Table 4
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers (excluding intra-EU (27) trade), 2011
$bn and %
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 Extra-EU(27) exports 2131 14.9 19 1 Extra-EU(27) imports 2344 16.2 17
2 China 1899 13.3 20 2 United States 2265 15.6 153 United States 1481 10.3 16 3 China 1743 12.0 254 Japan 823 5.7 7 4 Japan 854 5.9 23
5 Korea, Republic of 555 3.9 19 5 Korea, Republic of 524 3.6 23
6 Russian Federation 522 3.6 30 6 Hong Kong, China 511 3.5 16
- retained imports 130 0.9 16
7 Hong Kong, China 456 3.2 14 7 Canada  a 462 3.2 15
- domestic exports 17 0.1 14
- re-exports 439 3.1 14
8 Canada 452 3.2 17 8 India 451 3.1 299 Singapore 410 2.9 16 9 Singapore 366 2.5 18
- domestic exports 224 1.6 23 - retained imports  b 180 1.2 27
- re-exports 186 1.3 10
10 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  c 365 2.5 45 10 Mexico 361 2.5 1611 Mexico 350 2.4 17 11 Russian Federation  a 323 2.2 3012 Taipei, Chinese 308 2.2 12 12 Taipei, Chinese 281 1.9 1213 India 297 2.1 35 13 Australia 244 1.7 21
14 United Arab Emirates  c 285 2.0 30 14 Turkey 241 1.7 30
15 Australia 271 1.9 27 15 Brazil 237 1.6 2416 Brazil 256 1.8 27 16 Thailand 228 1.6 2517 Switzerland 235 1.6 20 17 Switzerland 208 1.4 18
18 Thailand 229 1.6 17 18 United Arab Emirates  c 205 1.4 28
19 Malaysia 227 1.6 14 19 Malaysia 188 1.3 1420 Indonesia 201 1.4 27 20 Indonesia 176 1.2 3021 Norway 159 1.1 21 21 South Africa 122 0.8 2922 Turkey 135 0.9 19 22 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 112 0.8 5
23 Iran, Islamic Rep. Of  c 131 0.9 30 23 Viet Nam 107 0.7 26
24 Nigeria  c 119 0.8 42 24 Norway 91 0.6 1725 Kuwait  c 98 0.7 46 25 Ukraine 83 0.6 3626 Qatar  c 98 0.7 58 26 Israel 76 0.5 24
27 South Africa 97 0.7 20 27 Chile 74 0.5 26
28 Viet Nam 97 0.7 34 28 Argentina 74 0.5 3129 Bolivarian Rep. of Venezuela 93 0.6 41 29 Iran, Islamic Rep. Of  c 68 0.5 530 Kazakhstan 88 0.6 48 30 Philippines  c 64 0.4 9
Total of above  d 12865 89.8 - Total of above  d 13085 90.3 -
World  d (excl. Intra-EU(27)) 14320 100.0 20 World  d (excl. Intra-EU(27)) 14485 100.0 20
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.b. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.c. Secretariat estimates.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
- indicates non-applicable.Source: WTO Secretariat.PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 20 of 25 
 
 
   
 
 
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual
 % 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual
 % 
change
1 United States 578 1 3.9 1 1 1 United States 391 1 0.1 6
2 United Kingdom 274 6.6 1 1 2 Germany 284 7.3 83 Germany 253 6.1 9 3 China 236 6.1 234 China 1 82 4.4 7 4 United Kingdom 1 71 4.4 75 France 1 61 3.9 1 1 5 Japan 1 65 4.3 66 India 1 48 3.6 20 6 France 1 41 3.6 77 Japan 1 43 3.4 3 7 India 1 30 3.4 1 28 Spain 1 41 3.4 1 4 8 Netherlands 1 1 8 3.1 1 29 Netherlands 1 28 3.1 1 1 9 Italy 1 1 5 3.0 5
1 0 Singapore 1 25 3.0 1 2 1 0 Ireland 1 1 3 2.9 6
1 1 Hong Kong, China 1 21 2.9 1 4 1 1 Singapore 1 1 0 2.9 1 5
1 2 Ireland 1 07 2.6 1 0 1 2 Canada 99 2.6 1 01 3 Italy 1 07 2.6 9 1 3 Korea, Republic of 98 2.5 31 4 Switzerland 96 2.3 1 7 1 4 Spain 91 2.4 51 5 Korea, Republic of 94 2.3 8 1 5 Russian Federation 90 2.3 241 6 Belgium 86 2.1 1 1 6 Belgium 82 2.1 51 7 Sweden 76 1 .8 1 6 1 7 Brazil 73 1 .9 221 8 Canada 74 1 .8 1 0 1 8 Australia 59 1 .5 1 81 9 Luxembourg 72 1 .7 8 1 9 Denmark 56 1 .5 1 1
20 Denmark 66 1 .6 1 1 20 Hong Kong, China 56 1 .4 1 0
21 Austria 60 1 .4 1 1 21 Sweden 56 1 .4 1 5
22 Russian Federation 54 1 .3 22 22 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 55 1 .4 823 Australia 50 1 .2 6 23 Thailand 50 1 .3 1 324 Taipei, Chinese 46 1 .1 1 4 24 Switzerland 47 1 .2 1 8
25 Norway 42 1 .0 7 25 United Arab Emirates  a 46 1 .2 …
26 Thailand 40 1 .0 1 9 26 Austria 44 1 .2 2027 Greece 40 1 .0 7 27 Norway 44 1 .1 428 M acao, China 39 0.9 36 28 Taipei, Chinese 41 1 .1 1 129 Turkey 38 0.9 1 2 29 Luxembourg 40 1 .0 1 030 Poland 37 0.9 1 2 30 M alaysia 37 1 .0 1 7
Total of above 3480 83.8 - Total of above 31 40 81 .2 -
World 41 50 1 00.0 1 1 World 3865 1 00.0 1 0
a  preliminary est imat es.
… indicat es unavailable or non-comparable f igures.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source :  WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.Appendix Table 5
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2011
$bn and %
Note:   Figures f or a number of  count ries and t errit ories have been est imat ed. A nnual percent age changes and rankings are af f ect ed by  cont inuit y breaks in t he series f or 
a large number of  economies, and by limit at ions in cross-count ry comparabilit y. See t he M et adat a.  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 21 of 25 
 
 
   
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual
 % 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual
 % 
change
1 Extra-EU(27) exports 789 24.8 1 2 1 Extra-EU(27) imports 639 21 .1 8
2 United States 578 1 8.2 1 1 2 United States 391 1 2.9 63 China 1 82 5.7 7 3 China 236 7.8 234 India 1 48 4.7 20 4 Japan 1 65 5.4 6
5 Japan 1 43 4.5 3 5 India 1 30 4.3 1 2
6 Singapore 1 25 3.9 1 2 6 Singapore 1 1 0 3.7 1 57 Hong Kong, China 1 21 3.8 1 4 7 Canada 99 3.3 1 0
8 Switzerland 96 3.0 1 7 8 Korea, Republic of 98 3.2 3
9 Korea, Republic of 94 2.9 8 9 Russian Federation 90 3.0 24
1 0 Canada 74 2.3 1 0 1 0 Brazil 73 2.4 22
1 1 Russian Federation 54 1 .7 22 1 1 Australia 59 2.0 1 8
1 2 Australia 50 1 .6 6 1 2 Hong Kong, China 56 1 .8 1 0
1 3 Taipei, Chinese 46 1 .4 1 4 1 3 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 55 1 .8 81 4 Norway 42 1 .3 7 1 4 Thailand 50 1 .7 1 3
1 5 Thailand 40 1 .3 1 9 1 5 Switzerland 47 1 .5 1 8
1 6 M acao, China 39 1 .2 36 1 6 United Arab Emirates  a 46 1 .5 …1 7 Turkey 38 1 .2 1 2 1 7 Norway 44 1 .5 4
1 8 Brazil 37 1 .2 21 1 8 Taipei, Chinese 41 1 .4 1 1
19 M a l a y s i a 3 6 1. 1 9 19 M a l a y s i a 3 7 1. 2 17
20 Israel 26 0.8 6 20 Indonesia 32 1 .1 24
21 Indonesia 20 0.6 23 21 M exico 25 0.8 1 6
22 Egypt 1 9 0.6 -20 22 Iran  a 22 0.7 …
23 Ukraine 1 9 0.6 1 3 23 South Africa 20 0.7 1 324 Lebanon  a 1 8 0.6 … 24 Israel 20 0.7 1 4
25 Philippines 1 6 0.5 8 25 Angola  a 20 0.7 …
26 M exico 1 5 0.5 0 26 Turkey 20 0.6 727 South Africa 1 5 0.5 8 27 Nigeria  a 1 7 0.6 …28 Argentina 1 4 0.4 1 0 28 Argentina 1 6 0.5 1 6
29 M orocco 1 4 0.4 1 4 29 Lebanon  a 1 5 0.5 …
3 0 C r o a t i a 1 30 . 4 1 3 3 0 U k r a i n e 1 40 . 5 1 9
Total of above 2920 91 .9 - Total of above 2690 88.9 -
World (excl. intra-EU(27)) 31 80 1 00.0 1 2 World (excl. intra-EU(27)) 3025 1 00.0 1 3
a  preliminary est imat es.
… indicat es unavailable or non-comparable f igures.
- indicat es non-applicable.
Source :  WTO and UNCTA D Secret ariat s.Appendix Table 6
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services (excluding intra-EU27 trade), 2011
$bn and %
Note:   Figures f or a number of  count ries and t errit ories have been est imat ed. A nnual percent age changes and rankings are af f ect ed by  cont inuit y breaks in t he series f or a 
large number of  economies, and by limit at ions in cross-count ry comparabilit y. See t he M et adat a. PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 22 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix  Chart 1
Seasonally  adjusted quarterly  merchandise  trade volume indices, 2008Q1 ‐ 2011Q4
(Indices, 2008Q1 = 100)
a  Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore;  and Chinese Taipei.
Sources: National statistics  and WTO Secretariat  calculations.   Seasonally  adjusted figures for the United States, the European  Union, 
Japan, and Hong Kong are taken from national sources.  Non‐seasonally  adjusted volume figures for other countries  were seasonally  
adjusted by the Secretariat.United States Japan
European  Union extra European  Union intra
China Newly  Industrialized  Economies  (4) a5060708090100110120
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q42009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q12010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4Exports
Imports
5060708090100110120
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q12009Q22009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q12010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4Exports
Imports
5060708090100110120
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q42009Q12009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q42010Q12010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q32011Q4Exports
Imports
5060708090100110120
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q12009Q22009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q12010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4Intra‐EU 
trade
5060708090100110120130140150
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q42009Q12009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q42010Q12010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q32011Q4Exports
Imports
5060708090100110120130140150
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q12009Q22009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q12010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4Exports
Imports
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 23 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 2
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2008-February 2012 
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China Re p. KoreaUnited States Ja pan
Euro pean Union extra France
German y United Kin gdom050100150200250
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
0102030405060708090
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
050100150200250
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
01020304050607080
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
020406080100120140160
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
010203040506070
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
020406080100120140160180200
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
0102030405060
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
 PRESS/658/Rev.1 
Page 24 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 2 (continued)
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2008-February 2012 
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.India South AfricaSingapore Chinese Tai pei
Malaysia Thailand
Brazil Russia0510152025303540
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
051015202530
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
0510152025
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
051015202530
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
0102030405060
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
05101520253035404550
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
024681012
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports0510152025
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
  PRESS/658/Rev.1 
 Page 25 of 25 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 2 (continued)
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2008-February 2012 
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Italy SpainTurke y Indonesia
Australia Canada
Greece Portu gal0510152025
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
02468101214161820
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
05101520253035404550
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
012345678910
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
012345678910
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
010203040506070
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
051015202530354045
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports051015202530
2008 2009 2010 2011Exports
Imports
END