PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/616 
20 September 2010 
 
(10-4749) 
TRADE GROWTH FORECAST RE VISED UPWARDS FOR 2010 
Trade likely to grow by 13.5% in 2010, WTO says 
Following faster than expected recovery in global trade flows so far in 2010, WTO economists have 
revised their projection for world trade growth in 2010 upwards to 13.5%.  The WTO's March 
forecast was a 10% expansion in trade volumes.  
Merchandise exports of developed economies are predicted to expand by 11.5% in volume terms 
while the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States) is expected to see an increase of 16.5% for the year (Table 1). 
 
 
Table 1: Merchandise exports and GDP by region, 2007-2010   
Annual % change     
      
    2007 2008 2009 2010 a 
      
Volume of merchandise exports     
 World 6.5 2.2 -12.2 13.5 
 Developed economies 4.8 0.8 -15.3 11.5 
 Developing economies and CIS 9.0 3.8 -7.8 16.5 
      
Real GDP at market exchange rates (2005)     
 World 3.8 1.6 -2.2 3.0 
 Developed economies 2.6 0.4 -3.5 2.1 
 Developing economies and CIS 8.0 5.7 2.0 5.9 
            
      
a  Projections     
Source: WTO Secretariat.     
 
 
This would be the fastest year-on-year expansion of trade ever recorded in a data series going 
back to 1950.  But such a large growth rate should be understood in the context  of a severely depressed level of trade in 2009, when world exports plunged by 12.2%.  The next fastest year-
on-year growth was 11.8% in 1976, one year after the then unprecedented decline of 7.3% in 
1975. 
 
"The strong recovery of trade signals improved economic activity worldwide," said WTO Director-
General Pascal Lamy. "This surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism."  PRESS/616 
Page 2 of 5 
 
  
World merchandise trade rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2010, driven by the recovery of 
GDP in both developed and developing economies (Chart 1).  Most economists expect output growth to slow in the second half as fiscal stimulus measures expire and the inventory cycle winds 
down.  This is likely to restrain the growth of trade in the second half of 2010 compared to the first 
half.    
The global trade growth projection is consistent with the WTO Secretariat's time-series model for 
import demand in a range of advanced economies, and assumes a reduced rate of GDP growth for developed countries in the second half of 2010 rather than an absolute decline.   
 
Risks to the forecast are mostly on the downside, particularly if an unforeseen financial or macroeconomic shock triggers another economic downturn.  However, some upside potential 
exists as well if growth is better than expected in the 2nd half of the year. PRESS/616 
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Chart 1           
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006 - August 2010   
(Billion dollars)          
           
United States  Japan 
 
       
       
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
European Union (27) extra-trade  France 
 
       
            
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
       
Germany  United Kingdom 
 
        
      
                      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
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Chart 1 (continued)          
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006 - August 2010   
(Billion dollars)          
           
China  Republic of Korea 
 
        
      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Brazil  India 
 
       
            
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
       
Russian Federation  South Africa 
 
        
      
                      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
 
PRESS/616 
Page 5 of 5 
 
 
 
Chart 1 (continued)          
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006 - August 2010   
(Billion dollars)          
           
Chinese Taipei  Singapore 
 
        
      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Malaysia  Thailand 
 
       
            
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
       
Turkey  Mexico 
 
        
      
                      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
 
Sources: IMF International Financial St atisitics, Global Trade Information Serv ices GTA database, national statistics. 
END