PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/628 
7 April 2011 
 
(11-1714) 
WORLD TRADE 2010, PROSPECTS FOR 2011 
Trade growth to ease in 2011 but despite 2010 record surge, crisis 
hangover persists  
Following the record-breaking 14.5% surge in the volume of exports in 2010 world trade growth 
should settle to a more modest 6.5% expansion in 2011. The sharp rise in trade volumes last year 
enabled world trade to recover to its pre-crisis level but not its long-term trend and WTO 
economists believe the recent series of important events around the world lend a greater degree of uncertainty to any forecast.   
 
“The figures show how trade has helped the world escape recession in 2010,” WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said. “However, the hangover from the financial crisis is still with us. High 
unemployment in developed economies and sharp belt-tightening in Europe will keep fuelling 
protectionist pressures. WTO Members must continue to be vigilant and resist these pressures and to work toward opening markets rather than closing them. "Stability" should be the name of the 
game for 2011". 
 The 14.5% rise was the largest annual figure in the present data series which began in 1950 and 
was buoyed by a 3.6% recovery in global outp ut. It was a rebound from the 12% slump in 2009, 
returning trade to the 2008 peak level and to mo re normal rates of expansion. Nevertheless, the 
financial crisis and global recession continue to have an impact, they said. 
 
For 2011, the economists are forecasting a more modest 6.5% increase, but with uncertainty about the impact of a number of recent events, in cluding the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. If 
achieved, this would be higher than the 6.0% average yearly increase between 1990 and 2008 
(Chart 1).  
These figures refer to growth in the volume of worl d trade, i.e., trade in real terms, adjusted for 
changes in prices and exchange rates. The projecti on is based on a consensus estimate of global 
output growth by economic forecasters, who predict a GDP growth rate of 3.1% in 2011 at market 
exchange rates. 
 The factors that contributed to the unusually large drop in world trade in 2009 may have also 
helped boost the size of the rebound in 2010. Thes e include the spread of global supply chains and 
the product composition of trade compared to ou tput. Global supply chains cause goods to cross 
national boundaries several times during the prod uction process, which raises measured world 
trade flows compared to earlier decades. The quanti fication of this effect would require data on 
trade in value added that are not currently available. The goods that were most affected by the downturn (consumer durables, industrial machinery,  etc.) have a larger share in world trade than PRESS/628 
Page 2 of 27 
 
 
  in world GDP, which increased the magnitude of the trade slump relative to GDP in 2009, and 
which had a similar positive effect during the recovery of 2010. 
 The short-term outlook is clouded by a number of significant risks factors in addition to the 
catastrophes in Japan. These include rising prices for food and other primary products, and unrest 
in major oil exporting countries. Adverse developments in any of these areas could potentially set back the economic recovery and limit the expansion of trade in the coming year. 
 
The full impact of the Japanese disaster is particularly difficult to gauge since it is complicated by a simultaneous nuclear incident, which is hampering relief and rebuilding efforts. The limited amount 
of research on the economic consequences of natural disasters suggests, however, that the trade 
impact should be relatively small, especially in the in the medium-to-long term.   
Higher prices for primary commodities and the extr aordinary growth of trade in developing Asia 
helped boost the combined share of developing  economies and the Commonwealth of Independent 
States (CIS) in world exports to 45% in 2010, its highest ever. 
 
Developed economies recorded export growth of nearly 13% in 2010, compared to a 16.5% average increase in the rest of the world. China’s exports increased in 2010 by a massive 28% in 
volume terms. 
 
 
Chart 1: Growth in volume of world merchandise trade and GDP , 2000-11 a
Annual % change
a  Figures for 2011 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.-15-10-5051015
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 aMerchandise exports
GDPAverageexport 
growth 1990-2008
Average GDP 
growth 1990-2008
 
 
Putting the trade recovery into perspective 
Although the growth of world exports in 2010 was the fastest on record in a data series going back 
to 1950, it might have been even faster if trade had quickly reverted to its pre-crisis trend. This 
did not happen. The rebound was strong enough for world exports to recover their peak level of 2008, but it was not strong enough to bring about a return to the previous growth path (Chart 2). PRESS/628 
Page 3 of 27 
 
 
  The 3.6% growth rate of world GDP for 2010 is also less robust than it might appear at first 
glance. It was above its average rate of 3.1% between 1990 and 2008, but it was far from a 
record. In fact, world GDP growth equalled or exceeded 4% several times in recent years, including 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006. Considering the depressed level of world output in 2009, 
growth in this range or higher would not have been surprising in 2010.  
 A number of factors combined to make trade an d output grow more slowly than they might 
otherwise have done. First, curtailment of fiscal stimulus measures in many countries dampened 
economic activity in the second half of the year. European governments in particular moved toward fiscal consolidation in an attempt to redu ce their budget deficits through a combination of 
spending cuts and revenue measures, with nega tive consequences for short-term growth.  
 Second, although oil prices stabilized at around $78/barrel in 2010, they were still high by recent 
historical standards (e.g. oil prices averaged $31/barrel between 2000 and 2005). Prices were 
below the $96/barrel average seen in 2008, but they were also up 30% from 2009, raising energy costs for households and businesses. 
 
Finally, persistent unemployment prevented domestic consumption from rebounding more strongly in developed countries and limited income growth and import demand. The OECD average 
unemployment rate was 8.6% in 2010 (up from 6.1% in 2008), and unemployment remained at or 
near 9% in the United States throughout the year.   
The record expansion of trade and the revival of economic activity in 2010 were certainly welcome 
developments, but their importance should not be  overstated. Despite the rebound, the negative 
impact of the financial crisis and global recession are likely to persist for some time. 
 
 
Chart 2: Volume of world merchandise exports , 1990-2011 a
Indices, 1990=100
a  Figures for 2011 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.50100150200250300350
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
19992000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 aExport volume
Forecast (2011)
Trend (1990-2008)
 
 PRESS/628 
Page 4 of 27 
 
 
  The state of the world economy and trade in 2010 
Economic growth 
World GDP at market exchange rates expanded 3.6% in 2010, one year after an unprecedented 
contraction of 2.4% that accompanied the financial crisis in 2009. Output of developed economies 
rose 2.6% in the latest year after falling 3.7% in 2009, while the rest of the world (including 
developing economies and the CIS) grew 7.0%, up from 2.1% in 2009 (Table 1).  
Growth was stronger in the first half of the year, but weakened in the second half as the sovereign 
debt crisis affecting smaller Euro area economies restrained economic growth, especially in Europe.  
 
Although developing economies collectively avoide d an outright decline in 2009, many individual 
economies saw their GDP contract, for example Sout h Africa, Chile, Singapore, and Chinese Taipei. 
However, all of these economies returned to positive growth in 2010, and the only large 
developing country that remained mired in recession was Venezuela.   
GDP grew faster in developing Asia (8.8%) than in other developing regions last year, with China 
and India registering strong increases of 10.3% and 9.7%, respectively. South and Central America also saw vigorous growth of 5.8%, driven by Brazil’s strong 7.5% upturn. However, Africa 
had the fastest average rate of GDP growth of any region over the last 5 years (4.7% between 
2005 and 2010).  
Developed economies grew more slowly than deve loping economies, but some performed better 
than others. Concerns about the possibility of sove reign defaults in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and 
Spain brought renewed financial market instability and fiscal austerity in the second half of 2010, 
which held Europe’s growth rate down to 1.9%, the slowest of any region. The economies of 
Greece, Ireland and Spain all contracted in 2010, as did Iceland’s, which was hit by a banking crisis in 2008. 
 
 PRESS/628 
Page 5 of 27 
 
 
  Table 1: GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2007-10
Annual % change
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
World 1.4 -2.4 3.6 2.2 -12.0 14.5 2.2 -12.8 13.5
North America 0.1 -2.8 3.0 2.1 -14.8 15.0 -2.4 -16.7 15.7
United States 0.0 -2.6 2.8 5.8 -14.0 15.4 -3.7 -16.4 14.8
South and Central America  a 5.1 -0.2 5.8 0.8 -7.9 6.2 13.2 -16.3 22.7
Europe 0.5 -4.0 1.9 0.2 -14.1 10.8 -0.6 -14.2 9.4
European Union (27) 0.5 -4.2 1.8 0.0 -14.5 11.4 -0.9 -14.2 9.2
Commonwealth of
 Independent States (CIS) 5.5 -7.1 4.3 2.0 -5.2 10.1 16.4 -25.6 20.6
Africa 4.8 2.1 4.7 1.2 -4.2 6.5 14.6 -5.0 7.0
Middle East 5.3 0.8 3.8 3.5 -4.3 9.5 14.2 -7.8 7.5
Asia 2.8 -0.2 6.3 5.5 -11.2 23.1 4.7 -7.5 17.6
China 9.6 9.1 10.3 8.5 -10.5 28.4 3.8 2.9 22.1
Japan -1.2 -6.3 3.9 2.2 -24.8 27.5 -1.0 -12.2 10.0
India 6.4 5.7 9.7 14.4 -6.8 19.9 17.3 -1.0 11.2
Newly industrialized
 economies (4)  b 1.9 -0.8 7.7 4.9 -5.7 21.3 3.5 -11.4 18.0
Memo: Developed economies 0.2 -3.7 2.6 0.8 -15.1 12.9 -1.2 -14.4 10.7
Memo: Developing and CIS 5.7 2.1 7.0 4.2 -7.8 16.7 8.5 -10.2 17.9
a  Includes the Caribbean.
b  Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
Source:  WTO Secretariat.GDP Ex ports Im ports
 
 
The major exception to the below average GDP growth in Europe was Germany, whose 3.6% 
growth rate outpaced all euro area economies and all European Union (27) members except for 
Sweden and Poland. According to OECD National Accounts Statistics, Germany’s net exports of goods contributed 1.4% to its 3.6% GDP growth, or 40% of the total increase. By comparison, 
domestic final consumption expenditure only contributed 0.7% to GDP, or 19% of the total 
increase.  
GDP growth in the United States was more subdued, at 2.8% in 2010, while Japan’s was up 3.9%. 
However, the Japanese recovery should be seen in the context of the 6.3% drop in output that the 
country experienced in 2009, the most severe decline among leading industrialized economies. 
Japan also ceded the position of the world’s seco nd largest economy to China, measured in dollar 
terms. In terms of income per head, however, it  may be noted that Japan’s per capita GDP was 
$44,800 dollars in 2010, compared to a figure of $4,800 for China.  
Merchandise trade in volume (i.e., real) terms 
The uneven recovery in output produced an equally  uneven recovery in global trade flows in 2010. 
While world merchandise exports rose 14.5% in volume terms, those of developed economies 
increased by 12.9%, and combined shipments from developing economies and the CIS jumped 
16.7% (Table 1). Imports of developed economies grew more slowly than exports last year (10.7% compared to 12.9%) while developing economies plus the CIS saw the opposite happen 
(17.9% growth in imports compared to 16.7% for exports). 
 Asia exhibited the fastest real export growth of any region in 2010 with a jump of 23.1%, led by 
China and Japan, whose shipments to the rest of the world each rose roughly 28%. China’s trade 
performance is more impressive when one considers that the decline in the country’s exports in 2009 was less than half that of Japan (11% compared to 25%). Meanwhile, the United States and 
the European Union saw their exports growing more slowly at 15.4% and 11.4%, respectively. PRESS/628 
Page 6 of 27 
 
 
  Imports were up 22.1% in real terms in China, 14.8% in the United States, 10.0% in Japan, and 
9.2% in the European Union. 
 Regions that export significant quantities of natural resources (Africa, the Commonwealth of 
Independent States, the Middle East and South Am erica) all experienced relatively low export 
volume growth in 2010, but very strong increases in  the dollar value of their exports. For example, 
Africa’s exports were up 6% in volume terms, and 28% in dollar terms (Appendix Table 1).  
 
An explanation for this can be seen in rising  primary commodity prices, which resumed their 
upward trajectory in 2010, after plunging in 2009. Table 2 illustrates commodity price 
developments in the last few years. Despite recent volatility, the overall trend toward higher prices 
is clear. Prices fell sharply in 2009 as the global recession took hold, but then shot up again when growth resumed in 2010. The increases were driven to a large extent by rising import demand on 
the part of fast-growing developing economies like China and India. Between 2000 and 2010, 
prices for metals rose faster than any other primary commodity group, with average annual increases of 12%, followed closely by energy with 11% growth per annum. Only agricultural raw 
material prices stagnated, with increases of just  2% per year on average over the last 10 years. 
 
 
Table 2: Exports prices of selected primary products, 2000-10
Annual % change
2008 2009 2010 2000-10 2005-10
All commodities 28 -30 26 10 9
Metals -8 -20 48 13 15
Beverages a 23 2 14 9 12
Food 23 -15 12 6 8
Agricultural raw materials -1 -17 33 2 5
Energy 40 -37 26 11 8
a  Comprising coffee, cocoa beans and tea.
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.  
 
In contrast to primary products, prices of manufactured goods rose very little in 2010. Export and 
import price indices may differ substantially across countries, but as an example, US non-fuel import prices in 2010 were nearly unchanged from 2009 (up 2.7% in 2010 after falling 3% in 
2009), and prices of imports from China (predomi nated by manufactures) declined by 0.1%. This 
means that nominal trade figures for natural resource exporters would be strongly deflated when calculating volume estimates, whereas real trade growth for countries that mostly export 
manufactured goods would be relatively close to their nominal growth rates.  
 Higher commodity prices lifted foreign exchange ea rnings in regions that export a lot of primary 
products and helped boost imports, especially in South and Central America, where the volume of 
imports jumped 22.7% in 2010, and in the CIS, where imports were up 20.6%. Africa’s import volume growth was actually the lowest of any region last year, at 7.0%, despite the continent’s 
large share of fuels and mining products in its total exports (64% in 2009 and 71% in 2008, when 
commodity prices were higher).  
This relatively small increase may be partly explai ned by the fact that African imports did not fall 
very far in 2009 (Africa had the smallest decline of any region at -5.0%), leaving less pent-up demand for imports in the following year. Also, not all African countries are important exporters of PRESS/628 
Page 7 of 27 
 
 
  the fuels and mining products, which saw the biggest price rises. Net importers of these products 
include Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco and Tanzania, among others. These countries did not experience 
the same windfall in export earnings enjoyed by natural resource exporters.  
Although South Africa is a net exporter of mining products, it is a net importer of fuels, which 
represented just over 21% of the country’s total imports of goods in 2009 (the share is the same 
for Kenya and Morocco, while Tanzania’s share is 23%).  
Merchandise and commercial services trade in value (i.e. dollar) terms 
As a result of rising commodity prices and a depreciating US currency (down 3.5% on average 
against major currencies in 2010 according to US Fe deral Reserve nominal effective exchange rate 
statistics), growth in the dollar value of worl d trade in 2010 was greater than the increase in 
volume terms. World merchandise exports were up  22%, rising from $12.5 trillion to $15.2 trillion 
in a single year, while world exports of commercial services rose 8%, from $3.4 trillion to $3.7 
trillion (Table 3).1  
 Nominal merchandise exports of developed econ omies jumped 16% in 2010 to $8.2 trillion, up 
from $7.0 trillion in 2009. However, because this rate of increase was slower than the world 
average of 22%, the share of developed countries in world merchandise exports fell to 55%, its lowest level ever. 
 
This falling share cannot be explained mainly as a result of higher prices for primary products exported predominantly by developing countries. This is because the latter prices were even higher 
in 2008 but the share of developed countries in world trade at that time was also higher, at nearly 
58%.  
The story is similar on the import side, where developed economy imports increased 16% to $8.9 
trillion, but their share in world imports dropped to 59% from 61% in 2009 and 63% in 2008.   
 
Table 3:  World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2005-10
$bn and annual % change
Value
2010 2008 2009 2010 2005-10
Merchandise 15237.6 15 -22 22 8Commercial services 3663.8 13 -12 8 8
Transport 782.8 16 -23 14 7Travel 935.7 10 -9 8 6Other commercial services 1945.3 13 -8 6 9
Source: WTO Secretariat.Annual % change
 
 
The faster growth of merchandise trade compared to services can be partly explained by the 
smaller decline in services in 2009 (just 12% co mpared to 22% for merchandise), which implies 
less need for faster-than-average growth to catch up to earlier trends. The average annual growth 
                                               
1 World exports of goods measured on a balance of pa yments basis like services were also up 22% in 
2010.  PRESS/628 
Page 8 of 27 
 
 
  in the value of merchandise trade and commercia l services trade between 2005 and 2010 was the 
same, at 8%.  
 Transportation was the fastest growing component of commercial services exports in 2010, with 
an increase of 14% to $782.8 billion. That transp ort services grew faster than other types of 
services is not surprising since they are closely li nked to trade in goods, which saw record growth 
last year. Travel grew in line with commercial se rvices overall, whereas other commercial services 
(including financial services) advanced more slowly.  
 World exports of goods and commercial services in current US dollars rebounded more quickly 
than world GDP last year, and as a result the ratio of world trade to GDP rose sharply after falling 
even more sharply in 2009 (Chart 3). At 124 in 2010, it remained below its 2008 peak of 132, but the 2010 value was still high by historical standards.  
 
 
Chart 3: Ratio of world exports of goods and commercial
services to GDP, 1980-2010
Index, 2000=100
Source: IMF for world GDP, WTO Secretariat for world trade in goods
and commercial services.60708090100110120130140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
 
Sectoral developments 
Prices for traded manufactured goods tended to be more stable than those of primary products, 
both before and after the economic crisis, so mo vements in nominal trade flows reflect changes in 
quantities reasonably well.  This is important because the product composition of trade was a major 
determinant of the extent to which the exports an d imports of various countries declined in 2009, 
and the same was true during the recovery of 2010.  
 
Chart 4 shows indices of estimated quarterly worl d trade in manufactured goods broken down by 
product. By the end of 2010 exports of manufactures had only just returned to a level close to 
their pre-crisis maximum, while particular categories such as automotive products and iron and 
steel were still well below their mid-2008 peaks.  
World exports of office and telecom equipment decl ined less than other products during the crisis, 
but have grown faster since then. Exports of office and telecom equipment rose nearly 73% between Q1-2009 and Q4-2010, and automotive products increased by a similar amount (71%). 
 PRESS/628 
Page 9 of 27 
 
 
  However, automotive products de clined much more during the cr isis (51% compared to 30% for 
office and telecom), so that by the end of 2010 they were only 5% above their level at the 
beginning of 2007, whereas world trade in office and telecom equipment was up 37%. 
Manufactures as a whole rose 46% between Q1-2009 and Q4-2010. 
 
The share of office and telecom equipment in exports of developing economies is greater than its share in developed economies exports (15% in 2008 for the former, 7% for the latter) while 
automotive products are responsible for a larger share of developed economy exports (11%, 
compared to 4%), so it is perhaps not surprisi ng that developed country exports have lagged 
behind those of developing countries since the crisis.  
 
World trade in textiles and clothing did not fluctuate as much as other products in 2009 (down 14%) and 2010 (up 11%) but the category other machinery matched the trend for total 
manufactures almost perfectly. This is partly due to its relatively large share in manufactures trade 
(about 13% in 2009) but also to the fact that it is mostly made up of investment goods (industrial machinery, power generating equipment, etc.), wh ich are highly sensitive to economic conditions 
and closely linked to production. About 4% of trade in manufactures is composed of consumer 
durables other than automobiles (mostly household appliances).   
 
Chart 4: World exports of manufactured goods by product, 2007-10
Indices, 2007Q1=100
Source: WTO Secretariat estimates based on mirror data.5060708090100110120130140150160
Q1-2007
Q2-2007
Q3-2007
Q4-2007
Q1-2008
Q2-2008
Q3-2008
Q4-2008
Q1-2009Q2-2009
Q3-2009
Q4-2009
Q1-2010
Q2-2010
Q3-2010
Q4-2010
Iron and steel Office and telecom equipment
Automotive products Other machinery
Textiles and clothing Manufactures
 
 
Due to insufficient data, we cannot say at this  stage whether world trade became more or less 
regional in 2010, but we can get an indication by looking at the automotive sector, where quarterly trade data are available by partner for all of the main exporting countries and regions.  
 PRESS/628 
Page 10 of 27 
 
 
  Table 4 shows preliminary estimates of automotive  product exports of North America, Europe and 
Asia from 2008 to 2010, including intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows. In Asia and North 
America, exports of automotive products became increasingly intra-regional between 2008 and 2010, with North America’s intra-trade share rising from 72% to 76% and Asia’s increasing from 
24% to 32%. 
 On the other hand, Europe’s exports became more intra-regional in 2009 but sharply more extra-
regional in 2010. Reasons for this include we ak demand within Europe on account of the 
continent’s relatively slow rate of GDP growth, and booming exports from Germany to China.   
The value of Germany’s total exports of automotive products was up 25% from $159.7 billion in 
2009 to $199.6 billion in 2010. However, exports to China roughly doubled during the same period, from $8.7 billion to $17.6 billion. Also, wh ile Germany’s exports to the rest of the world 
were down 34% in 2009, exports to China were up  12%. As a result, China has become the third 
largest market for German cars after the United States and United Kingdom.  
Exports of vehicles and auto parts developed along similar lines in North America and also in 
Europe, but they diverged slightly in Asia in 2010, as the region’s exports of vehicles became more intra-regional, while trade in parts and components became more extra-regional. 
 
 
Table 4: Exports of automotive products by major exporting regions, 2008-10
$bn and %
Value of 
exports 
to worldValue of 
intra-
regional 
exportsValue of 
extra-
regional 
exports
2010 2010 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
North America
Automotive products 205.3 156.6 48.7 72.2 75.6 76.3 -32 43 -28 45 -40 39
Vehicles 132.4 94.2 38.1 66.4 70.7 71.2 -33 45 -29 46 -42 42Parts and components 73.0 62.4 10.6 83.1 84.4 85.5 -29 41 -28 43 -34 31
Europe
Automotive products 538.8 385.9 153.0 75.2 77.1 71.6 -31 18 -29 10 -36 46
Vehicles 351.1 247.3 103.7 73.5 76.5 70.5 -32 16 -29 7 -39 46Parts and components 187.8 138.5 49.2 78.6 78.3 73.8 -29 22 -29 15 -28 47
Asia
Automotive products 276.5 89.8 186.7 24.5 31.8 32.5 -34 45 -14 48 -40 43
Vehicles 170.7 43.9 126.8 17.6 24.0 25.7 -41 45 -19 55 -45 42Parts and components 105.8 45.9 59.9 39.5 44.2 43.4 -19 44 -10 42 -26 46
Source: WTO Secretariat estimates based on monthly data for available reporters in Global Trade Information Services'
Global Trade Atlas database.Share of intra-
regional trade in 
exports to worldAnnual % 
change in 
exports to 
worldAnnual % 
change in 
intra-
regional 
exportsAnnual % 
change in 
extra-
regional 
exports
 
 
Exchange rates and trade balances  
Trade imbalances of leading economies widened in 2010, as exports and imports bounced back 
from their depressed levels of 2009. However, for most countries the gap between exports and 
imports was smaller after the crisis than before (Appendix Chart 1).  
 The monthly trade deficit of the United States widened from a low of $32 billion in February 2009 
to around $62 billion per month on average in the second half of 2010, and the deficit for the year PRESS/628 
Page 11 of 27 
 
 
  increased 26% compared to 2009. However, the 2010 deficit of roughly $690 billion was 22% less 
than the corresponding deficit of $882 billion in 2008. 
 China’s merchandise trade surplus for 2010 totalled $183 billion, roughly 7% less than the $196 
billion it recorded in 2009, and 39% less than the nearly $300 billion surplus of 2008. The 
European Union’s had a trade deficit with the rest of the world of $190 billion in 2010, which was up 26% from 2009 but down 49% from the $375 billion it recorded in 2008.  
 
Japan was an exception to the trend towards smaller trade deficits/surpluses after the crisis. In 2008 the country recorded a $19 billion surplus of expo rts over imports, but this nearly quadrupled 
to $77 billion in 2010. 
 In terms of exchange rates, by February 2011 th e Yuan had appreciated against the US dollar in 
nominal terms by around 3.8% from its previous level. However, real appreciation against the 
dollar is happening at a faster rate due to higher inflation in China. China’s real (i.e., inflation adjusted) effective exchange rate against a broad basket of currencies rose 1.3% in 2010 
according to indices supplied by J.P. Morgan. 
 By comparison, the US dollar registered a 5% real  effective depreciation against trading partners’ 
currencies during the same period. 
 The yen appreciated by nearly 7% in nominal terms against the dollar in 2010, but its real 
effective rate was only up by less than 1% on a ccount of a falling price level (i.e. deflation) in 
Japan. This suggests that the higher value of the yen did not hurt the competitiveness of Japanese goods on world markets. 
 
On the other hand, the strong nominal appreciations of the Brazilian real (12%) and the Korean won (10%) against the dollar were matched by  large real effective rises (15% and 9%, 
respectively) that would have raised the cost of goods from these countries relative to other 
countries’ exports.   
 
Chart 5: Nominal dollar exchange rates, January 2000 - February 2011
Indices of US dollars per unit of national currency, 2000=100
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.6080100120140160180
Jan-00
Jan-01Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10Jan-11UK £
Japan yen
Euro
406080100120140160
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11Brazil real
China Yuan
Korea Won
 PRESS/628 
Page 12 of 27 
 
 
  Prospects for 2011 
World trade flows are continuing their recovery, building on the large gains of 2010, with slower 
but still slightly above average growth in 2011. However, recent events in the Middle East and Japan have raised the level of global economic uncertainty and tilted the balance of risk towards 
the downside.  
 WTO economists’ baseline projections for world me rchandise trade in 2011 would see exports grow 
by 6.5%, with shipments from developed countries increasing by around 4.5% and those from 
developing economies and the CIS advancing 9.5% (Table 5). These projections include the likely impact of Japan’s earthquake, but if the repercussions turn out to be worse than expected we 
would have to revisit the forecast in the coming months.  
  
Table 5: World merchandise ex ports and GDP , 2008-2011 a
Annual % change
2008 2009 2010 2011 a
Volume of merchandise exports
World 2.2 -12.0 14.5 6.5
Developed economies 0.8 -15.1 12.9 4.5Developing economies and CIS 4.2 -7.8 16.7 9.5
Real GDP at market exchange rates (2005)
World 1.4 -2.4 3.6 3.1
Developed economies 0.2 -3.7 2.6 2.2Developing economies and CIS 5.7 2.1 7.0 5.8
a  Figures for 2011 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat for exports, concensus estimates for GDP.
 
 
In recognition of the uncertainty surrounding any forecast, the fan chart shown in Chart 6 
represents the probabilities associated with this year’s trade growth prediction of 6.5 per cent, 
based on the experience of past forecasts and taking into account current economic and political 
conditions. The area covered by the darkest band in the centre of Chart 6 contains the most likely development of trade volumes. The area covere d by each pair of identically shaded bands 
represents another 5 per cent probability of future trade volumes lying within that range. In light 
of the downside risks mentioned above, the fan char t is slightly skewed towards its lower range. It 
can be seen, for instance, that even under the worst case scenario portrayed in the chart, trade 
growth in 2011 would still be positive overall, despite the possibility of a more pronounced dent in 
the second quarter. 
 PRESS/628 
Page 13 of 27 
 
 
  Chart 6: Volume of world trade, 2010-11 a
Indices, Q1-2010=100
a  Figures for 2011 are projections
Source: WTO Secretariat
  
 
 
The 14.5% rise in exports in 2010 was quite close to the WTO’s most recent projection of 13.5% 
released in September. That forecast correctly predicted the growth of developing economies (16.5%) but underestimated the extent of the rebound in developed economies (11.5% compared 
to the realised figure of 12.9%) 
 The trade forecast assumes world GDP growth of 3.1% at market exchange rates for 2011, with 
developed economies gaining 2.2% and the rest of  the world (including developing economies and 
the Commonwealth of Independent States) advancing 5.8%. The GDP projection refers to real GDP at market exchange rates based on consensus estimates of economic forecasters.
2  
 
Even though the risks are mostly on the downside, there is also some upside potential if the uncertainly in the Middle East resolves itself soon and if unemployment rates start to come down 
more quickly in the United States. The latter wo uld release a considerable amount of pent up 
demand for goods, which would stimulate imports and drive world trade higher.   
The limited amount of existing research on the consequences of natural disasters for economic 
growth suggests that even very large disasters generally do not have noticeable effects on output as measured by GDP, especially in the long run.
3  
 
Studies dealing specifically with the trade effects of natural disasters are even rarer. A recent paper by Gassebner, Keck and Teh (2010)
4 examines data on disasters in 170 countries between 
                                               
2 The IMF World Economic Outlook, the OECD Ec onomic Outlook, the UN DESA World Economic 
Situation and Prospects and other national sources. 
3 Cavallo, Edward, Galiani, Sebastian,  Noy, Ha n and Pantano, Juan (2010), "Catastrophic Natural 
Disasters and Growth," Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper IDB-WP-183. PRESS/628 
Page 14 of 27 
 
 
  1962 and 2004. Using the methodology of this paper, we find that the expected impact of the 
Japanese earthquake is to: 
 • reduce the volume of Japanese exports by between 0.5% and 1.6%; and 
• increase the volume of Japanese imports by between 0.4% and 1.3%. 
 The reduction in exports is easily explained. Ex port declines occur because of the human losses 
and injuries (affecting companies’ human resources) and the destruction and damage to physical 
capital and equipment in the export sector. Furtherm ore, damage to public infrastructure, such as 
roads, bridges, railways, and telecommunication systems, can cause disruptions to the export 
supply chain.  
 What may be less clear is why imports are estimated to increase as a result of a disaster. This is 
because any major reconstruction or rebuilding of damaged infrastructure will likely increase 
imports, since the required materials, technology  or skills may need to come from abroad. This 
should outweigh any drop in import demand stemming from lost output and income. 
 
Some of the economic impact of the earthquake could be transmitted to other countries through global supply chains. Anecdotal evidence is alread y being reported on shortages of Japanese auto 
parts and electronic components in other countries, and on ships being unable to unload perishable 
food in Japan because of a lack of refrigeration due to reduced electricity supplies.  
However, less output and trade in one quarter will probably be followed by increased activity in 
subsequent quarters, so the cumulative effect over the course of the year may not be large.  
The prospect of sharply higher oil prices probably poses a greater threat to the world economy and 
trade than the Japanese earthquake. Fears of a prolonged conflict in Libya and spreading unrest in the Middle East have lifted oil prices above $100/ba rrel. An interruption of supplies from any other 
major producer would raise prices higher still, with potentially significant implications for the global 
economy. In such an event, the WTO would have to revisit its trade projections.  
The above estimates of export growth are supported  by the results of the WTO Secretariat’s time 
series forecasting model,
5 which predicts a 4.5 per cent increase in demand for imported goods 
and services in 2011 on the part of developed ec onomies (or more precisely, the members of the 
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) (Chart 7). 
  
                                                                                                                                              
 
4 Gassebner, Martin, Keck, Alexander and Teh, Robe rt (2010) ‘Shaken, not Stirred: The Impact of 
Disasters on International Trade’, Review of International Economics , 18(2): 351-368. 
5 Keck, Alexander, Raubold, Alexander and Truppia, Alessandro (2009) "Forecasting international 
trade: A time se ries approach', OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis , vol. 2: 
157-176.  The model has been extended and further improv ed since publication and also includes estimations 
for emerging economies, such as China.    PRESS/628 
Page 15 of 27 
 
 
  Chart 7: Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2008-10
% change over same quarter in previous year
Note:  Q4-2010 exports and imports estimated based on available data.
Source: OECD Quarterly National Accounts.-20-15-10-505101520
Q1-2008
Q2-2008
Q3-2008
Q4-2008Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009Q4-2009
Q1-2010
Q2-2010Q3-2010
Q4-2010GDP
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
 
 
 PRESS/628 
Page 16 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix 
Details of trade developments in 2010 
Merchandise trade, volume (real) terms, 2010 
World merchandise exports in volume terms (i.e. excluding the influence of prices and exchange 
rates) rose 14.5% in 2010, while world imports grew 13.5%. In principle, world exports and 
imports should increase at roughly the same rate, with some discrepancies due to differences in data recording across countries. World trade as measured by exports grew 4 times as fast as 
global GDP in 2010, whereas trade normally grows about twice as fast as GDP. (Table 1). 
 Only in Asia and North America did exports gr ow faster than the world average (15.0% and 
23.1%, respectively), whereas slower than average growth was recorded in South and Central 
America (6.2%), Europe (10.8%), the CIS (10.1%), Africa (6.4%), and the Middle East (9.5%). However, low volume growth in oil-exporting regions would be considered normal since demand 
for fuels tends to be unresponsive to price and income changes. On the import side, faster than 
average growth was observed in North America (15.7%), South and Central America (22.7), the CIS (20.6%), and Asia (17.6%), while slower grow th was reported in Europe (9.4%), Africa (7.1) 
and the Middle East (7.5). 
 Among countries for which data are available, the five countries with the fastest growing 
merchandise exports in volume terms were Jord an (30%), China (28%), Japan (27%), and the 
Philippines (27%) and Chinese Taipei (27%).   
On the import side, the BRIC countries of Brazil , Russia, India and China all reported very rapid 
growth in 2010 (43% for Brazil, 39% for china, 30% for Russia and 25% for India.   
Merchandise and commercial services trade in nominal terms, 2010 
Merchandise trade 
All regions experienced double-digit increases in the dollar value of both exports and imports in 
the latest year, thanks in part to rising prices for fuels and other commodities (Appendix Table 1). 
 North America’s exports were up 23% to $1.96 tri llion, or 13% of the world total. Meanwhile, the 
region’s imports grew at the same rate as exports to $2.68 trillion, or 18% of world total. 
 South and Central America’s exports jumped 25% to $575 billion (4% of world) while imports 
were up 30% to $576 billion (4% of world). 
 Europe’s exports totalled $5.63 trillion (38% of wo rld) and imports reached $5.84 trillion (39% of 
world). Exports and imports were up 12% and 13%, respectively, over 2009. 
 Exports of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) states rose 30% to $588 billion, or 4% 
of the world total. CIS imports advanced 24% to $484 billion, equal to 3% of world imports. 
 Africa’s exports in 2010 were worth $500 billion (3% of world), 28% above their 2009 level. The 
continent’s imports increased at half the rate of exports (14%) to $463 billion, or 3% of the world 
total. 
 PRESS/628 
Page 17 of 27 
 
 
  The Middle East’s exports rose 30% to $916 billion  (6% of the world total), but imports only 
increased by 13% to $572 billion (4% of world). 
 Asia’s exports of goods were worth $4.69 trillion (32% of world) in 2010, a 31% increase over 
2009. The region’s imports totalled $4.50 trillion (30% of world), up 32% from 2009. 
 The leading merchandise exporters in 2010 were China ($1.58 trillion, or 10% of world exports), 
the United States ($1.28 trillion, 8% of world), Germany ($1.27 trillion, 8% of world), Japan ($770 
billion, 5% of world) and the Netherlands ($572 billion, 3.8% of world). The top merchandise 
importers were the United States ($1.97 trillion, 13% of world imports), China ($1.40 trillion , 9% 
of world), Germany ($1.07 trillion  7% of world) , Japan ($693 billion, 4.5% of world) and France 
($606 billion, 4% of world). The United States overtook Germany to become the second largest exporter, one year after Germany ceded the top position to China (Appendix Table 3). 
 
If we ignore intra-trade between the 27 European Union members and treat the EU as a single entity, the leading exporters were the European Un ion ($1.79 trillion, or 15% of the total), China 
(13%), the United States (11%), Japan (6.5%) and the Republic of Korea ($466 billion, or 4% of 
the total). The top importers excluding EU (27) in tra-trade were the European Union ($1.98 trillion 
or 16.5% of world imports), the United States (16%), China (12%), Japan (6%) and the Republic 
of Korea ($425 billion, 3.5% of world). Hong Kong’s  total imports were actually larger than Korea’s 
($442 billion), but retained imports were smaller ($116 billion) (Appendix Table 4).  
Commercial services trade 
World exports of commercial services increased 8% to $3.67 trillion in 2010 after dropping 12% in 2009. The growth rate in 2010 was equal to the average annual rate for the 2005-2010 period (Appendix Table 2).  
 
North America’s exports were worth at $599 billion last year, while the value of the region’s imports came to $471 billion. Exports and imports were both up 9% year-on-year, but Mexico 
lagged on the export side with 5% growth. 
 South and Central America’s exports rose 11% to $111 billion, but imports grew more than twice 
as fast (23%) to reach $135 billion. Both exports and imports of Brazil grew faster than the 
regional average (+15% and 35%, respectively), with  particularly high growth rates observed for 
imports of transport services (+42%) and travel (+ 51%, partly due to the strength of the Real). 
 
Europe’s exports and imports were both larger than any other region’s last year ($1.72 trillion and $1.5 trillion, respectively) but they were also the least dynamic, with growth of just 2% on the 
export side and 1% on the import side. The reason for the Europe’s poor performance can be 
found in the weakness of travel services, which dec lined by 3% on the export side and 2% on the 
import side. 
 
Exports of CIS countries increased by 10% to $78 billion last year. The region’s imports also rose 14% to $105 billion. Russian export growth of 6% was driven by transport services. 
 
Meanwhile, Africa exported $86 billion worth of commercial services, 11% more than in 2009. The continent’s imports advanced 12% to $141 billion. In South Africa, travel receipts increased by 
24% due to the large number of foreign visitors attending the FIFA World Cup. 
 The Middle East exported $103 billion worth of comm ercial services and imported $185 billion in 
2010. Exports and imports were both up 9% year-on-year.  PRESS/628 
Page 18 of 27 
 
 
  Finally, Asia exported $963 billion worth of servic es last year and imported a similar amount, $961 
billion. Exports and imports were up 21% and 20%, respectively. Transport was the most dynamic 
sector, with a growth rate of 26% on both the ex port and import sides. Travel exports also rose 
rapidly at 25%. Also, other commercial services increased by 17%, which now represents half of 
the region’s exports.  
 The United States exported $515 billion in commercial services in 2010, or 14% of the global total, 
making it the world’s largest exporter. The top 5 was rounded out by Germany ($230 billion, or 
6% of world exports), the United Kingdom ($227 b illion, also 6% of world), China ($170 billion, 
5% of world) and France ($140 billion, 4% of world). (Appendix Table 5).  
 
The United States was also the leading importer, with purchases of $358 billion from foreign providers, equal to 10% of world imports. It wa s followed by Germany ($256, 7% of world), China 
($192, 5.5% of world), the United Kingdom ($156 billion, 4.5% of world) and Japan ($155 billion, 
4.5% of world)  
China replaced France as the fourth largest exporter of commercial services, while Germany 
overtook the United Kingdom in second place. China also moved up the rankings on the import side, taking over the third position from the United Kingdom. 
 
When EU intra-trade is excluded, the European Union (27) becomes the leading global exporter, 
with services exports to the rest of the world totalling at $684 billion in 2010, or 25% of global 
trade. It is followed by The United States (wit h 18% of the reduced world total), China (with 6%), 
Japan (with 5%) and Singapore (with $112 billion, or 4% of world).  
The European Union is also the top importer when EU intra-trade is left out. Its imports from non-
EU countries in 2010 came to $598 billion, or 22% of world trade. The top 5 is rounded out by the United States (13% of world), China (7%), Japan (6%) and India (4%). 
 
The WTO does not forecast trade in commercial services, but Japan’s earthquake could significantly influence services trade statistics in the coming year because of the specific ways that 
insurance services are recorded in international transactions. Until recently, the accepted practice 
in when compiling balance of payments data was for countries to report insurance services trade flows as gross premiums (i.e. revenue) minus gross claims (i.e. payments). This had the perverse 
effect of sharply reducing services imports in countries that suffered natural disasters, to the point 
where negative imports could be recorded in certain years. The sixth edition of the IMF Balances of Payments Manual (2008) provides revised guidelines for recording insurance transactions, 
including the use of an estimate for expected claims rather than actual claims, but these standards 
have not been universally adopted.  As a result, total world trade in commercial services might be 
artificially low next year. PRESS/628 
Page 19 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Table 1
World merchandise trade by region and selected economies, 2010
$bn and %
Exports Imports
Value Annual percentage change Value Annual percentage change
201 0 2005-1 0 2008 2009 201 0 201 0 2005-1 0 2008 2009 201 0
World 1 4855 8 1 5 -23 22 1 5050 7 1 6 -23 21
North America 1 964 6 1 1 -21 23 2681 3 8 -25 23
United States 1 278 7 1 2 -1 8 21 1 968 3 7 -26 23Canada  a 387 1 9 -31 22 402 4 7 -21 22M exico 298 7 7 -21 30 31 1 6 1 0 -24 29
South and Central America  b 575 1 0 21 -24 25 576 1 4 30 -26 30
Brazil 202 1 1 23 -23 32 1 91 20 44 -27 43Other South and Central America  b 373 9 20 -25 22 385 1 2 25 -25 24
Europe 5626 5 1 2 -22 1 2 5841 5 1 3 -25 1 3
European Union (27) 51 47 5 1 1 -22 1 2 5337 5 1 2 -25 1 2
Germany 1 269 5 9 -23 1 3 1 067 7 1 2 -22 1 5France 521 2 1 0 -21 7 606 4 1 3 -22 8Netherlands 572 7 1 6 -22 1 5 51 7 7 1 8 -24 1 7
United Kingdom 405 1 5 -23 1 5 558 2 2 -24 1 5
Italy 448 4 9 -25 1 0 484 5 1 0 -26 1 7
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 588 1 1 35 -36 30 41 4 1 4 32 -33 24
Russian Federation  a 400 1 0 33 -36 32 248 1 5 31 -34 30
Africa 500 1 0 29 -30 28 463 1 3 28 -1 5 1 4
S o u t h  A f r i c a 8 2 10 16 - 2 4 3 3 9 4 9 14 - 2 7 2 9Africa less South Africa 41 8 1 0 31 -31 28 369 1 4 33 -1 2 1 1
Oil exporters   c 277 9 34 -38 31 1 38 1 4 39 -9 4Non oil exporters 1 41 1 2 24 -1 4 21 231 1 3 29 -1 4 1 5
M iddle East 91 6 1 1 34 -31 30 572 1 1 28 -1 5 1 3
Asia 4685 1 1 1 5 -1 8 31 4503 1 1 21 -20 32
C h i n a 15 7 8 16 17 - 16 3 1 13 9 5 16 18 - 11 3 9Japan 770 5 9 -26 33 693 6 23 -28 25India 21 6 1 7 30 -1 5 31 323 1 8 40 -20 25Newly industrialized economies (4)  d 1 1 1 1 9 1 0 -1 7 30 1 1 03 9 1 7 -24 33
M emorandum items:
M ERCOSUR  e 282 1 1 24 -22 30 267 1 9 41 -28 43
ASEAN  f 1 052 1 0 1 4 -1 8 29 950 1 0 21 -23 31EU (27) extra-trade 1 787 6 1 3 -21 1 7 1 977 6 1 7 -27 1 8Least Developed Countries (LDCs) 1 64 1 5 32 -24 28 1 74 1 5 30 -5 1 3
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.
b. Includes the Caribbean.  For composition of groups see the Technical Notes of WTO, International Trade Statistics, 201 0.c. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.d. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei. e. Common M arket of the Southern Cone: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay.f. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, M alaysia, M yanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thaila nd, Viet Nam.
Source:  WTO Secretariat.
 PRESS/628 
Page 20 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Table 2
$bn and %
Value Value
201 0 2005-1 0 2008 2009 201 0 201 0 2005-1 0 2008 2009 201 0
World 3665 8 1 3 -1 2 8 3505 8 1 4 -1 1 9
North America 599 7 9 -8 9 471 6 9 -9 9
    United States 51 5 8 1 0 -7 8 358 6 9 -8 7
South and Central America  a 1 1 1 1 0 1 5 -8 1 1 1 35 1 4 21 -9 23
    Brazil 30 1 5 27 -9 1 5 60 22 28 -1 35
Europe 1 724 6 1 2 -1 4 2 1 504 6 1 2 -1 3 1
    European Union (27) 1 553 6 1 1 -1 5 2 1 394 5 1 2 -1 3 1
Germany 230 7 1 5 -1 2 2 256 4 1 1 -1 2 1
United Kingdom 227 2 0 -1 9 0 1 56 0 -1 -1 9 -1
F r a n c e 14 0 3 12 - 14 - 1 12 6 3 9 - 10 0Netherlands 1 1 1 4 1 3 -9 0 1 09 5 1 4 -3 1
Spain 1 21 5 1 2 -1 4 -1 85 5 9 -1 7 -1
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 78 1 4 27 -1 7 1 0 1 05 1 2 26 -1 9 1 4
    Russian Federation 44 1 2 30 -1 9 6 70 1 3 30 -20 1 8
Ukraine 1 6 1 2 27 -23 20 1 1 1 0 43 -30 0
Africa 86 9 1 4 -9 1 1 1 41 1 4 30 -1 2 1 2
    Egypt 24 1 0 25 -1 4 1 2 1 3 6 25 -22 -1
    South Africa 1 4 5 -8 -6 21 1 8 9 2 -1 3 25
M o r o c c o 1 2 1 01 2- 7 1 6 1 4 2 4- 61 5
M iddle East 10 3 … … - 3 9 18 5 … … - 8 9
    Israel 24 7 1 5 -1 0 1 1 1 7 5 1 3 -1 4 3
Asia 9 6 3 12 16 - 11 2 1 9 6 1 11 16 - 10 2 0
China  b 1 70 1 8 20 -1 2 32 1 92 1 8 22 0 22Japan 1 38 6 1 5 -1 4 9 1 55 5 1 3 -1 2 6I n d i a 110 … 2 0 - 13 … 117 … 2 5 - 9 …Singapore 1 1 2 1 5 1 7 -6 20 96 1 2 1 7 -9 21
Korea, Republic of 82 1 1 25 -1 9 1 3 93 1 0 1 4 -1 7 1 7
Hong Kong, China 1 08 1 1 9 -6 25 51 9 1 1 -5 1 5A u s t r a l i a 4 8 91 2- 81 7 5 0 1 1 2 1 - 1 5 2 2
M emorandum item
EU (27) extra-trade 684 7 1 2 -1 4 5 598 7 1 6 -1 3 6
a  Includes the Caribbean.  For composition of groups see Chapter IV M etadata of WTO International Trade Statistics, 201 0.
b  Preliminary estimate.
Note:   While provisional full year data were available in early M arch for 50 economies accounting for more than two thirds of world commercial
services trade, estimates for most other countries are based on data for the first three quarters.
Source :  WTO Secretariat.World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2010
Annual percentage change Annual percentage changeExports Imports
 PRESS/628 
Page 21 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Table 3
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2010
$bn and %
Rank Exporters Value Share Annual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value Share Annual 
% 
change 
1 China 1 578 1 0.4 31 1 United States 1 968 1 2.8 23
2 United States 1 278 8.4 21 2 China 1 395 9.1 39
3 Germany 1 269 8.3 1 3 3 Germany 1 067 6.9 1 5
4 Japan 770 5.1 33 4 Japan 693 4.5 25
5 Netherlands 572 3.8 1 5 5 France 606 3.9 8
6 France 521 3.4 7 6 United Kingdom 558 3.6 1 5
7 Korea, Republic of 466 3.1 28 7 Netherlands 51 7 3.4 1 7
8 Italy 448 2.9 1 0 8 Italy 484 3.1 1 79 Belgium 41 1 2.7 1 1 9 Hong Kong, China 442 2.9 25
- retained imports a 1 1 6 0.8 31
1 0 United Kingdom 405 2.7 1 5 1 0 Korea, Republic of 425 2.8 32
1 1 Hong Kong, China 401 2.6 22 1 1 Canada b 402 2.6 22
- domestic exports a 1 8 0.1 7
- re-exports a 383 2.5 23
1 2 Russian Federation 400 2.6 32 1 2 Belgium 390 2.5 1 11 3 Canada 387 2.5 22 1 3 India 323 2.1 25
1 4 Singapore 352 2.3 30 1 4 Spain 31 2 2.0 6
- domestic exports 1 83 1 .2 32
- re-exports 1 69 1 .1 28
1 5 M exico 298 2.0 30 1 5 Singapore 31 1 2.0 26
- retained imports c 1 42 0.9 24
1 6 Taipei, Chinese 275 1 .8 35 1 6 M exico 31 1 2.0 291 7 Saudi Arabia a 254 1 .7 32 1 7 Taipei, Chinese 251 1 .6 44
1 8 Spain 245 1 .6 8 1 8 Russian Federation b 248 1 .6 30
1 9 United Arab Emirates a 235 1 .5 27 1 9 Australia 202 1 .3 22
20 India 21 6 1 .4 31 20 Brazil 1 91 1 .2 43
21 Australia 21 2 1 .4 38 21 Turkey 1 85 1 .2 32
22 Brazil 202 1 .3 32 22 Thailand 1 82 1 .2 36
23 M alaysia 1 99 1 .3 26 23 Switzerland 1 76 1 .1 1 324 Switzerland 1 95 1 .3 1 3 24 Poland 1 74 1 .1 1 6
25 Thailand 1 95 1 .3 28 25 United Arab Emirates a 1 70 1 .1 1 3
26 Sweden 1 58 1 .0 21 26 M alaysia 1 65 1 .1 33
27 Indonesia 1 58 1 .0 32 27 Austria 1 59 1 .0 1 1
28 Poland 1 56 1 .0 1 4 28 Sweden 1 48 1 .0 23
29 Austria 1 52 1 .0 1 1 29 Indonesia 1 32 0.9 46
30 Czech Republic 1 33 0.9 1 8 30 Czech Republic 1 26 0.8 20
Total of above d 1 2541 82.3 - Total of above d 1 271 2 82.7 -
World d 1 5238 1 00.0 22 World d 1 5376 1 00.0 21
a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Imports are valued f.o.b.
c. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.PRESS/628 
Page 22 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Table 4
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers (excluding intra EU (27) trade), 2010
$bn and %
Rank Exporters Value Share Annual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value Share Annual 
% 
change 
1 Extra-EU (27) exports 1 787 1 5.0 1 7 1 Extra-EU (27) imports 1 977 1 6.5 1 8
2 China 1 578 1 3.3 31 2 United States 1 968 1 6.4 23
3 United States 1 278 1 0.8 21 3 China 1 395 1 1 .6 39
4 Japan 770 6.5 33 4 Japan 693 5.8 25
5 Korea, Republic of 466 3.9 28 5 Hong Kong, China 442 3.7 25
-  r e t a i n e d  i m p o r t s  a 116 1. 0 3 1
6 Hong Kong, China 401 3.4 22 6 Korea, Republic of 425 3.5 32
- domestic exports a 1 8 0.2 7
- re-exports a 383 3.2 23
7 Russian Federation 400 3.4 32 7 Canada b 402 3.3 22
8 Canada 387 3.3 22 8 India 323 2.7 25
9 Singapore 352 3.0 30 9 Singapore 31 1 2.6 26
- domestic exports 1 83 1 .5 32 - retained imports c 1 42 1 .2 24
- re-exports 1 69 1 .4 28
1 0 M exico 298 2.5 30 1 0 M exico 31 1 2.6 29
1 1 Taipei, Chinese 275 2.3 35 1 1 Taipei, Chinese 251 2.1 44
1 2 Saudi Arabia a 254 2.1 32 1 2 Russian Federation b 248 2.1 30
1 3 United Arab Emirates a 235 2.0 27 1 3 Australia 202 1 .7 22
14 I n d i a 2 16 1. 8 3 1 14 B r a z i l 19 1 1. 6 4 3
15 A u s t r a l i a 2 12 1. 8 3 8 15 T u r k e y 18 5 1. 5 3 2
1 6 Brazil 202 1 .7 32 1 6 Thailand 1 82 1 .5 36
1 7 M alaysia 1 99 1 .7 26 1 7 Switzerland 1 76 1 .5 1 3
1 8 Switzerland 1 95 1 .6 1 3 1 8 United Arab Emirates a 1 70 1 .4 1 3
1 9 Thailand 1 95 1 .6 28 1 9 M alaysia 1 65 1 .4 33
20 Indonesia 1 58 1 .3 32 20 Indonesia 1 32 1 .1 46
21 Norway 1 32 1 .1 9 21 Saudi Arabia a 1 02 0.8 7
2 2 T u r k e y 114 1. 0 12 2 2 S o u t h  A f r i c a 9 4 0 . 8 2 9
23 Iran, Islamic Rep. Of a 1 01 0.8 28 23 Viet Nam 85 0.7 21
24 South Africa 82 0.7 33 24 Norway 77 0.6 1 1
25 Nigeria a 79 0.7 49 25 Iran, Islamic Rep. Of a 63 0.5 24
26 Viet Nam 72 0.6 26 26 Israel a 61 0.5 24
27 Chile 70 0.6 30 27 Ukraine 61 0.5 34
28 Argentina 69 0.6 23 28 Philippines a 58 0.5 2729 Kuwait a 66 0.6 27 29 Chile 58 0.5 37
30 Bolivarian Rep. of Venezuel
a 66 0.6 1 4 30 Argentina 56 0.5 46
Total of above d 1 0709 90.2 - Total of above d 1 0865 90.4 -
World d (excl. intra-EU (27)) 1 1 878 1 00.0 26 World d (excl. intra-EU (27)) 1 201 6 1 00.0 24
a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Imports are valued f.o.b.
c. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.PRESS/628 
Page 23 of 27 
 
 
  Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 United States 51 5 1 4.1 8 1 United States 358 1 0.2 7
2 Germany 230 6.3 2 2 Germany 256 7.3 13 United Kingdom 227 6.2 0 3 China  a 1 92 5.5 224 China  a 1 70 4.6 32 4 United Kingdom 1 56 4.5 -15 France 1 40 3.8 -1 5 Japan 1 55 4.4 66 Japan 1 38 3.8 9 6 France 1 26 3.6 07S p a i n 1 2 1 3 . 3 - 1 7I n d i a 1 1 7 3 . 3 …8 Singapore 1 1 2 3.0 20 8 Netherlands 1 09 3.1 19 Netherlands 1 1 1 3.0 0 9 Italy 1 08 3.1 1
1 0 India 1 1 0 3.0 … 1 0 Ireland 1 06 3.0 2
1 1 Hong Kong, China 1 08 2.9 25 1 1 Singapore 96 2.7 21
1 2 Italy 97 2.6 3 1 2 Ko rea, Republic o f 93 2.7 1 71 3 Ireland 95 2.6 3 1 3 Canada 89 2.6 1 51 4 Korea, Republic of 82 2.2 1 3 1 4 Spain 86 2.4 -11 5 Belgium 81 2.2 2 1 5 Belgium 76 2.2 41 6 Switzerland 76 2.1 6 1 6 Russian Federation 70 2.0 1 817 L u x e m b o u r g 6 8 1. 9 13 17 B r a z i l 6 0 1. 7 3 51 8 Canada 66 1 .8 1 5 1 8 Hong Kong, China 51 1 .5 1 519 S w e d e n 6 4 1. 7 9 19 A u s t r a l i a 5 0 1. 4 2 2
20 Denmark 58 1 .6 7 20 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  b 49 1 .4 …
21 Austria 53 1 .5 -1 21 Denmark 49 1 .4 -1
22 Australia 48 1 .3 1 7 22 Sweden 48 1 .4 623 Russian Federation 44 1 .2 6 23 Thailand 45 1 .3 2124 Taipei, Chinese 41 1 .1 29 24 United Arab Emirates  b 42 1 .2 …25 Norway 40 1 .1 5 25 Norway 41 1 .2 1 226 Greece 37 1 .0 -1 26 Switzerland 38 1 .1 -127 Thailand 34 0.9 1 5 27 Luxembourg 38 1 .1 828 Turkey 33 0.9 0 28 Taipei, Chinese 37 1 .1 2829 M alaysia 33 0.9 1 3 29 Austria 36 1 .0 -230 Poland 32 0.9 1 1 30 Indonesia 33 0.9 1 8
31 Brazil 30 0.8 1 5 31 M alaysia 32 0.9 1 8
32 M acao, China 28 0.8 51 32 Poland 27 0.8 1 633 Finland 25 0.7 -1 0 33 Czech Republic 24 0.7 2834 Israel 24 0.7 1 1 34 M exico 23 0.7 835 Egypt 24 0.6 1 2 35 Finland 23 0.7 -1 136 Portugal 23 0.6 2 36 Nigeria  b 20 0.6 …37 Czech Republic 22 0.6 1 0 37 Greece 20 0.6 238 Hungary 1 8 0.5 1 38 Iran, Islamic Rep. of  b 1 9 0.5 …39 Lebanon  b 1 8 0.5 … 39 Angola  b 1 8 0.5 …40 Indonesia 1 7 0.5 25 40 Turkey 1 8 0.5 1 7
Total of above 3290 89.8 - Total of above 3035 86.7 -
World 3665 1 00.0 8 World 3505 1 00.0 9
b  Secret ariat  est imat e.
Source: WTO Secretariat.Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2010
Note:   Figures f or a number of  count ries and t errit ories have been est imat ed by t he Secret ariat . A nnual percent age changes and ranki ngs are af f ect ed by cont inuit y 
breaks in the series for a large number of economies, and by limitations in cross-country comparability. See the M etadata. a  Preliminary est imat e.Appendix Table 5
$bn and %
 
 PRESS/628 
Page 24 of 27 
 
 
  Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change Rank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 EU27 Extra-EU27 684 24.5 5 1 EU27 Extra-EU27 598 22.1 6
2 United States 51 5 1 8.4 8 2 United States 358 1 3.2 7
3 China  a 1 70 6.1 32 3 China  a 1 92 7.1 224 Japan 1 38 4.9 9 4 Japan 1 55 5.7 65 Singapore 1 1 2 4.0 20 5 India 1 1 7 4.3 …6 India 1 1 0 3.9 … 6 Singapore 96 3.5 217 Hong Kong, China 1 08 3.9 25 7 Korea, Republic of 93 3.4 1 78 Korea, Republic of 82 2.9 1 3 8 Canada 89 3.3 1 59 Switzerland 76 2.7 6 9 Russian Federation 70 2.6 1 8
1 0 Canada 66 2.4 1 5 1 0 Brazil 60 2.2 35
1 1 Australia 48 1 .7 1 7 1 1 Hong Kong, China 51 1 .9 1 5
12 R u s s i a n  F e d e r a t i o n 4 4 1. 6 6 12 A u s t r a l i a 5 0 1. 8 2 21 3 Taipei, Chinese 41 1 .5 29 1 3 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  b 49 1 .8 …1 4 Norway 40 1 .4 5 1 4 Thailand 45 1 .7 211 5 Thailand 34 1 .2 1 5 1 5 United Arab Emirates  b 42 1 .5 …16 T u r k e y 3 3 1. 2 0 16 N o r w a y 4 1 1. 5 12
1 7 M alaysia 33 1 .2 1 3 1 7 Switzerland 38 1 .4 -1
1 8 Brazil 30 1 .1 1 5 1 8 Taipei, Chinese 37 1 .4 281 9 M acao, China 28 1 .0 51 1 9 Indonesia 33 1 .2 1 8
20 Israel 24 0.9 1 1 20 M alaysia 32 1 .2 1 8
21 Egypt 24 0.9 1 2 21 M exico 23 0.9 8
22 Lebanon  b 1 8 0.6 … 22 Nigeria  b 20 0.7 …23 Indonesia 1 7 0.6 25 23 Iran, Islamic Rep. of  b 1 9 0.7 …
24 M exico 1 6 0.6 5 24 Angola  b 1 8 0.7 …
25 Ukraine 1 6 0.6 20 25 Turkey 1 8 0.7 1 726 South Africa 1 4 0.5 21 26 South Africa 1 8 0.7 2527 Argentina 1 3 0.5 1 8 27 Israel 1 7 0.6 328 Philippines 1 2 0.4 21 28 Lebanon  b 1 5 0.6 …29 M orocco 1 2 0.4 1 29 Argentina 1 4 0.5 1 730 Kuwait  b 1 1 0.4 … 30 Egypt 1 3 0.5 -1
31 Croatia 1 1 0.4 -7 31 Kuwait  b 1 2 0.5 …
32 United Arab Emirates  b 1 0 0.4 … 32 Algeria  b 1 2 0.4 …
33 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  b 1 0 0.4 … 33 Ukraine 1 1 0.4 034 Chile 1 0 0.3 1 5 34 Chile 1 1 0.4 1 735 Cuba  b 9 0.3 … 35 Philippines 1 1 0.4 2536 New Zealand 9 0.3 1 4 36 Kazakhstan 1 0 0.4 437 Iran, Islamic Rep. of  b 8 0.3 … 37 Bolivarian Rep. of Venezuel
a 10 0 . 4 10
38 Viet Nam 8 0.3 32 38 New Zealand 9 0.3 1 5
39 Panama 6 0.2 8 39 Viet Nam 8 0.3 24
40 Tunisia 5 0.2 -1 40 Colombia 8 0.3 1 7
Total of above 2655 95.0 - Total of above 2525 93.3 -
World 2795 1 00.0 1 1 World 2705 1 00.0 1 3
b  Secretariat estimate.
Source: WTO Secretariat.Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU (27) trade, 2010
Note:   Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. Annual percentage changes and ranki ngs are affected 
by continuity breaks in the series for a large number of economies, and by limitations in cross-country comparability. See the Metadata. a  Preliminary estimate.Appendix Table 6
$bn and %PRESS/628 
Page 25 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 1
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, Jan. 2006 - Jan. 2011
(Billion dollars)
United States Japan
European Union (27) extra-trade France
Germany United Kingdom0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.020.040.060.080.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.030.060.090.0120.0150.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports Imports0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exp orts Imports0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.020.040.060.080.0100.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
 PRESS/628 
Page 26 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 1 (continued)
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, Jan. 2006 - Jan. 2011
(Billion dollars)
China Republic of Korea
Brazil India
Russian Federation South Africa0.05.010.015.020.025.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 0
0.010.020.030.040.050.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports Imports0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 0
Exports Imports0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.010.020.030.040.050.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
 PRESS/628 
Page 27 of 27 
 
 
  Appendix Chart 1 (continued)
Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, Jan. 2006 - Jan. 2011
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statisitics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Turkey MexicoMalaysia ThailandChinese Taipei Singapore
0.05.010.015.020.025.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 00.04.08.012.016.020.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 00.010.020.030.040.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.05.010.015.020.025.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports Imports0.010.020.030.040.0
2 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 0
Exports Imports
END