G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
14 October  2021 
(21-7802) Page: 1/9 
Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures  Original: English  
 
NEW OPPORTUN ITIES AND EMERGING CHALLENGES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE  
IN FOOD, ANIMALS, AND PLANTS  
COMMUNICATION FROM AUSTRALIA, BELIZE, CANADA,  CHILE, COLO MBIA,  COSTA RICA, 
DOMINICAN  REPUBLIC,  ECUADOR,  JAPAN, MEXICO, NEW ZEALAND, PARAGUAY, PERU,  
SINGAPORE,  THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA , URUGUAY  AND VIET NAM 
The following communication, received on 13 October 2021, is being circulated at the request of the 
delegations of Australia, Belize, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, 
Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, the United States of America, Uruguay and 
Viet Nam. 
_______________  
Chapeau:  The purpose of document G/GEN/SPS/ 1960 is to elaborate on several of the concepts 
contained in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Declaration for the Twelfth WTO Ministerial Conference: 
Responding to Modern SPS Challenges  (G/SPS/GEN/1758/Rev.7 ). The document serves to highlight 
the relevance of the SPS Declaration and the importance of adopting a forward -looking workplan to 
appropriately consider common challenges in the impl ementation of the SPS Agreement and the 
mechanisms available to address them, and the impacts of emerging pressures on the application 
of the SPS Agreement. This document does not represent additional text to be included in the 
Declaration.  
1.  The proposed Sanitary and Phytosanitary Declaration for the Twelfth WTO Ministerial 
Conference  (MC12 SPS Declaration), with document symbol G/SPS/GEN/1758/Rev.7 , notes that 
the agricultural landscape has changed signifi cantly since the adoption of the SPS Agreement in 
1995. This evolution has brought about a variety of new opportunities and emerging challenges for 
international trade in food, animals and plants. Specifically, the Declaration mentions the following 
as som e examples:  
− expanding global populations, as well as increased movement of agricultural products to 
address changing population structures and distributions;  
− increased pace of innovation in tools and technologies;  
− changing climatic conditions and associa ted stresses on food production;  
− growing importance of sustainable agricultural practices;  
− shifting pressures due to the spread of pests, diseases, disease -carrying organisms, or 
disease -causing organisms; and  
− continued application of SPS measures that would constitute a disguised restriction on 
international trade.  
2.  In order to advance discussions around the specific concepts contained within the 
MC12  SPS Declaration, this paper elaborates on several opportunities and emerging challenges fo r 
international trade in food, animals and plants, including: population growth and distribution; climate 
change and its impact on agriculture; pressures related to pests and diseases in agriculture; and the 
policy challenges and opportunities related to i ncreased pace of innovation in tools and technologies.  
1  POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION  
3.  The world's population is expected to grow to almost 10 billion by 2050, boosting agricultural 
demand by approximately 50 percent compared to 2013, even in a scenari o of modest economic G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
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  growth. Income growth in low - and middle -income countries may hasten a dietary transition towards 
higher consumption of meat, fruits and vegetables, requiring commensurate shifts in output (FAO, 
2017). Long term population trends exhib it strong but slowing growth in Asia, and continued rapid 
growth in Africa, while populations in Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, and Oceania 
are projected to increase slowly; populations in Europe will likely contract by 2050 (FAO, 2020).  
4.  The interaction between population growth and demographic changes affects food demand, 
trade, and markets in important ways. While population growth drives the demand for, and trade of 
food, urbanization is associated with considerable changes in lifestyle and is a key driver of changes 
in consumption patterns (FAO, 2020). FAO has identified the emergence of a middle class in many 
developing countries as the most significant factor driving not only the demand for food but also its 
composition, leading to cha nges in food procurement systems. The rise of an urban middle class in 
Africa, for example, resulted in an increase in calories consumed overall and a higher demand for 
processed foods, meat, fruit and vegetables. Middle class consumers are also more likel y to shop in 
supermarkets or other types of convenience stores and spend a higher share of their income eating 
in restaurants. Dietary shifts spurred by income growth also affect trade (FAO, 2020).  
5.  Since 1995, when the SPS Agreement was adopted, internatio nal trade in food and agriculture 
has more than doubled in real terms, though its growth rate has been slower since the 2008 financial 
crisis. Developing countries and emerging economies are increasingly participating in global 
markets, and their exports m ake up more than one -third of global agri -food trade. Global exports 
of food and beverages are approximately twice as large as those of agricultural commodities. During 
the 1995–2018 period, food exports grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent, while  those of 
agricultural commodities increased at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent (FAO, 2020).  
6.  Global value chains are widespread in food and agriculture, and approximately one -third of global 
agricultural and food exports are traded within global valu e chains that involve at least three 
countries (World Bank, 2019). Though these value chains are complex, because production is 
separated in different stages, farmers and businesses can more easily participate in the stage(s) 
where they can best leverage t heir comparative advantage (FAO, 2020). Types of participation can 
include selling seeds and fertilizers; producing, selling, and buying primary agricultural commodities 
(such as grains); processing and fabricating intermediate products (such as soybean oi l or milk 
powder); and may also include services and industrial inputs that are exchanged between different 
stages of production that span multiple countries.  
7.  As we move into the future, trade in agricultural goods will likely increase based on the demands  
of population growth and projected changes in consumer diets and preferences. To accommodate 
these increases, countries will need to continue to develop and implement risk -based control, 
inspection, and approval procedures that facilitate trade while ensu ring food safety and protecting 
plant and animal health. In particular, countries will need to ensure that they have appropriate 
processes to assess market access requests for new products and products produced differently than 
how they are produced domest ically, with a particular focus on ensuring that scientific uncertainty 
does not unnecessarily limit trade. Taking into consideration that processed products may contain 
ingredients from increasingly diverse sources, countries will need to use a common lan guage and 
shared concepts to discuss risks to human, animal, and plant life and health. Finally, countries will 
also need to explore further risk -based strategies and technologies to better target products while 
expediting at -border processes without compr ising the efficacy of SPS measures.  
2  CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND ASSOCIATED STRESSES ON FOOD 
PRODUCTION  
8.  Climate change affects agriculture most directly through the impact of changing temperatures 
and precipitation patterns on the growth of crops (IFPR I, 2021). In the crop sector, climate change 
has already negatively affected wheat and maize yields in many regions and at the global level 
(Lobell et al., 2011). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that decreases 
in crop yields of 1 0 to 25 percent or more may be widespread by 2050. The increased frequency of 
warmer nights is already having a negative effect on rice yields and quality in some regions of the 
world (FAO, 2017), and Trnka et al. (2019) project that up to 60% of the curre nt wheat -growing 
area will face severe water shortages by the end of this century, compared to 15% today.  G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
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  9.  The livestock sector contributes to the livelihoods of approximately 1.7 billion vulnerable people, 
and 70 percent of those employed in the sector are  women (FAO, 2021). As reviewed by 
Rojas -Downing et al. (2017), climate change will likely affect livestock production by adding 
additional stress to competition for limited natural resources, quantity and quality of feeds, livestock 
diseases, and heat str ess. The effects, taken together and individually, will increase the costs and 
financial risks associated with raising livestock, both for sustenance and for the market. Increased 
temperature and heat stress have also been linked to losses in poultry produ ction from death, 
low egg production (quantity and quality), and reduced growth rate in farming systems commonly 
found in Africa and Asia (Bhadauria et al., 2014; Liverpool -Tasie et al., 2019). Further, indirect 
effects of climate change may affect livesto ck and poultry production. Maize is a key ingredient in 
poultry feed and lower maize yields due to climate change will likely affect the availability and price 
of feed and the profitability of animal production (Liverpool -Tasie et al., 2019).  
10.  With increasi ng temperature, special consideration should also be given to food safety controls, 
food production systems and supply chains. For example, shifting patterns of algal blooms are 
expected to expose new countries to ciguatera fish poisoning, a severe food -borne illness. 
Higher  temperatures and humidity can increase the risk of fungal growth and may exacerbate 
contamination of stored cereals and pulses with mycotoxins (FAO, 2008, 2017).  
11.  The impacts of climate change on food and agriculture are interconnected a cross environmental, 
social and economic dimensions (FAO, 2017). The International Food Policy Research Institute 
(IFPRI) IMPACT model projects that prices for most food commodity groups will rise by 
approximately 50% by 2050 due to the direct and indirect  effects of climate change, nearly double 
the increase projected in the absence of climate change (Rosegrant et al., 2021). Low -income 
producers and consumers may be particularly susceptible to challenges associated with adaptation 
to new climatic conditio ns and resource limitations, although all aspects of food security are expected 
to be affected by climate change (IPCC, 2019). Further steps will need to be taken to protect the 
livelihoods of low -income producers and small -scale farmers, as they work to a ddress 
climate -related risks and challenges.  
12.  As the global agricultural landscape evolves in response to changing climate, it is evident that 
agricultural producers around the world will need to adapt their production practices and adopt new 
approaches to address the challenges they will face. In addition to novel production techniques, 
innovative tools and technologies will play a central role in helping farmers maintain the productivity 
and profitability of their production systems, and countries will nee d to ensure that their agricultural 
producers have access to these important resources. While climate change affects the entire planet, 
effects will be felt and managed differently in different countries and regions. Despite these 
differences, countries wi ll need to understand and recognize the safety of approaches that are 
appropriate in other parts of the world in order to facilitate sustainable intensification of agricultural 
production while maintaining and strengthening international trade.  
3  SHIFTING PR ESSURES DUE TO PESTS, DISEASES, DISEASE -CARRYING ORGANISMS, OR 
DISEASE -CAUSING ORGANISMS  
13.  Changing climatic conditions can also affect the distribution of plant and animal pests and 
diseases (IPCC 2019). Since 1960, crop pests and diseases have moved at an average of 2.7 km a 
year in the direction of the earth's north and south poles, and this movement is associated with 
increases in global temperatures (Bebber et al., 2013). The spread of pests and disease agents into 
new environments is also increasing (Be bber et al., 2014). Warren et al. (2018) estimates that the 
ranges of approximately fifty percent of insect species, some of which may be pests or disease 
vectors, will shift by nearly fifty percent by 2100 under current trajectories for greenhouse gas 
emissions. Climate change is modifying the dynamics of pest populations, such as locusts, and may 
create new ecological niches for the emergence or re -emergence and spread of pests and diseases 
(FAO, 2017). Overall, the effects of climate change may be felt i n a number of ways, such as 
increases in the frequency of outbreaks, expansion of pest ranges into new environments, evolution 
of new pest strains and types, and increases in the vulnerability of plant defense mechanisms (FAO, 
2017).  
14.  Changes in temperature  and rainfall can contribute to the evolution of new and more aggressive 
strains and types of plant pests and diseases, which may affect crop varieties that are now resistant 
or tolerant to pests. For example, strains of wheat yellow rust have adapted to h igher temperatures 
and damaged wheat crops in the Near East, Central Asia, Australia and the Americas in the 2000s G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
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  (Milus et al., 2009). Recent reports indicate that stem rust emerged in the United Kingdom for the 
first time in 60 years and that climate ch anges over the past 25 years likely led to conditions being 
favorable for infection (Lewis et al., 2018). Wheat rusts are among the most significant threats to 
global wheat production, and are also adapting to warmer climates and becoming more aggressive 
(CIMMYT, 2020).  
15.  Climate change has also been shown to affect intensification and expansion of cassava virus 
diseases and the banana top disease virus in some environments of the tropics, and these dynamics 
are linked to the increased mobility of their insec t vectors. Complex interactions among biotic and 
abiotic factors may further complicate the challenge of addressing the impacts of climate change. 
While drier conditions might suppress some pests and diseases they can, at the same time, make 
crops more vul nerable to others.  
16.  Certain plant diseases, such as wheat and coffee rusts, and pests, such as locusts, are airborne 
or can fly and easily spread across borders. Insect vectors also play an important role in the local 
spread of many viral and bacterial dise ase agents, such as the banana bunchy top disease, cassava 
mosaic diseases and maize lethal necrosis disease, which are major threats to key staple crops for 
millions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (FAO, 2017). The increased incidence and intensity of 
tropical storms and floods can spread certain soil - and waterborne plant diseases (FAO, 2017). 
Rising  carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures may also provide a more favorable 
environment for pathogens like fungi (IPCC, 2019). With regard to animal health, research models 
of Blue -tongue virus, which is spread by biting Culicodes  midges, suggest that the distribution of 
this virus will likely increase, particularly in central Africa, the United States, and western Russia 
(Samy and Peterson, 2016).  
17.  In addition to changes in distribution caused by changing climate and natural spread, 
the movement of planting materials, trade in agricultural products, and passenger travel can also 
facilitate the long -distance movement of plant pests and diseases, includin g invasive species. 
Pest and diseases can become invasive when they are introduced or spread into new areas or 
habitats. The SPS Committee has discussed a number of invasive pests and disease, including African 
swine fever, brown marmorated stink bug, fall  armyworm, desert locust, and some types of highly 
pathogenic avian influenza.  
18.  To address these issues, countries will likely require timely access to new pest management 
tools and production strategies that they can adopt and deploy to manage plant pests in a 
sustainable manner. In addition, the adaptation of SPS measures to regional conditions, including 
pest or disease -free areas and areas of low pest or disease prevalence may help countries address 
threats to their agricultural production. Scientific ev idence and international standards will be 
particularly important and relevant as countries, particularly those with limited human and financial 
resources, determine the most appropriate and effective means by which to address the challenges 
they face whil e maintaining the economic opportunities afforded through trade.  
4  INNOVATION IN TOOLS AND TECHNOLOGIES  
19.  Throughout history, humans have improved and honed their abilities to produce food. 
Whether  through the collection and replanting of especially hearty or  productive varieties or through 
mechanization, such as that offered by tractors, agricultural production has never been a static 
enterprise. And while these innovations have been very different from one another, their goals have 
nearly always been the sam e: increase yield and/or decrease costs and the amount of inputs 
required for a productive harvest and, more recently, ensuring long -term sustainability. 
As populations and economies have expanded, innovations and new technologies have also made 
products m ore competitive in local and international markets and improved the overall economic 
opportunities for agricultural producers.  
20.  The widespread use of integrated pest management (IPM) is a tangible example of an innovation 
that has helped increase yields and reduce input costs. IPM uses prevention, such as: certified 
pest-free seeds and quarantine; avoidance – such as crop rotation and varieties chosen for pest 
resistance; monitoring – through proper identification of pests by trapping, weather moni toring, soil 
testing; and suppression, if an infestation occurs, such as through chemical or biological pesticides, 
use of pheromones to disrupt mating, and preserving or releasing beneficial organisms (Farrar, et  al. 
2015).  G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
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  21.  IPM technology was first introd uced 40 years ago and, while farmers were at first slow to adopt 
IPM practices, it is now accepted as the main strategy for managing pests throughout much of the 
world. IPM practices reduce pest management risks to people and the environment, but adoption of 
the technology was neither fast nor easy. As we move forward into a future with increased on -farm 
automation, widely available global position satellite technology, and inexpensive and highly 
advanced sensing equipment, agricultural producers are well -positioned to leverage the knowledge 
and experience they have gained through use of IPM to further evolve precision agriculture.  
22.  New digital technologies are also changing the way we use data collection and analysis to 
produce, trade, and consume food and o ther primary products. These technologies are being applied 
to improve product traceability, further develop data -driven decision making, strengthen secure data 
sharing along complex agricultural value chains, as well as integrate digital trade finance pla tforms 
and e -commerce to connect producers to consumers. Digital trade certificates can also facilitate 
trade by eliminating paper documentation, reducing fraud and enabling faster border procedures, 
all of which reduce costs (OECD/FAO, 2020).  
23.  Scientific a nd technological advances will improve global capability to address future challenges 
facing agriculture and trade. For example, rapid advances in the fields of plant genetics and breeding, 
including gene editing, and ongoing research in practices such as no-till agriculture, nutrient -use 
efficiency, cover -crop management, and precision agriculture, offer a great deal of promise. 
However, these technologies will not meet their promise if countries limit access to the products 
they yield. Advances in researc h approaches and the availability and use of large quantities of data 
("big data") may contribute to efforts by countries to address uncertainty and gaps in knowledge, 
and both strengthen and accelerate their science -based risk assessment processes. Countr ies will 
be faced with complex but critical decisions about how to adopt, manage, and regulate the 
approaches that will be needed to maintain the viability of agricultural production and feed the world 
in the future, and transparent, collaborative communic ation around those decision -making processes 
will be essential to ensure that SPS measures facilitate safe trade without unnecessarily restricting 
the flow of goods.  
5  ENHANCING IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SPS AGREEMENT  
24.  Through this brief summary of opportunities and emerging challenges for international trade in 
food, animals and plants, we have only started to touch on the complexities of these timely issues. 
Changes in population size, climate, and pest and disease distribution, among other factors, will 
affect agricultural production and trade, but the global community has and will develop the tools and 
technologies necessary to address challenges and maximize opportunities. National and international 
approaches to the development and implementation of SPS measu res will play an important role in 
supporting innovation and access to new technologies, as well as facilitating safe trade as population 
distributions and demand changes. Better understanding of these issues, achieved through 
discussion and deliberation, can help us strengthen our collaborative work as Members of the 
SPS Committee, keeping in mind that the proper implementation of the SPS Agreement by Members 
supports rural livelihoods, facilitates trade, and supports sustainable agricultural growth.  
25.  To th is end, the MC12 SPS Declaration proposes that the SPS Committee further enhance the 
implementation of the SPS Agreement in an effort to better manage issues related to international 
trade in food, animals and plants. This will be accomplished by undertaki ng a work program, open 
to all Members and Observers, consisting of new efforts to identify: (1) common challenges in the 
implementation of the SPS Agreement and the mechanisms available to address them; and 
(2) the impacts of emerging pressures on the app lication of the SPS Agreement.  
26.  Moving forward, we welcome discussions in the SPS Committee, as proposed in the work 
program of the MC12 SPS Declaration ( G/SPS/GEN/1758/Rev.7 ), to explore the themes that a re and 
will be particularly relevant to the effective implementation of the SPS Agreement in the coming 
years.  G/SPS/GEN/1960  
 
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