PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/676 
21 September 2012 
 
(12-5094) 
TRADE STATISTICS 
Slow global growth to hit trade in 2012 and 2013, WTO says 
Slowing global output growth has led WTO economists to downgrade their 2012 forecast for world 
trade expansion to 2.5% from 3.7% and to scale back 
their 2013 estimate to 4.5% from 5.6%.  
 
“In an increasingly interdependent world, economic 
shocks in one region can quickly spread to others. 
Recently announced measures to reinforce the euro and boost growth in the United States are therefore 
extremely welcome,” said WTO Director-General Pascal 
Lamy.  
“But more needs to be done. We need a renewed 
commitment to revitalize the multilateral trading system which can restore economic certainty at a time 
when it is badly needed. The last thing the world 
economy needs right now is the threat of rising protectionism,” he said. 
 
The global economy has encountered increasingly 
strong headwinds since the last WTO Secretariat 
forecast was issued in April. Output and employment 
data in the United States have continued to disappoint, while purchasing managers’ indices and industrial 
production figures in China point to slower growth in 
the world’s largest exporter.  
More importantly, the European sovereign debt crisis 
has not abated, making fiscal adjustment in the peripheral euro area economies more painful and 
stoking volatility. Figures for world trade include trade 
between EU countries (i.e. EU intra-trade), making them highly sensitive to developments in this region.  
 
All of these factors have contributed to an easing of global trade growth, which slowed to a crawl in the 
second quarter according to new quarterly 
NEW: QUARTERLY  VOLUME DATA 
 
The WTO’s short‐term trade statistics 
now include quarterly merchandise  
trade growth in volume (or real) 
terms. This is a new addition to the 
WTO’s quarterly trade data, which 
were previously  only available as 
values in current dollar terms. 
Trade value data do not take inflation 
and exchange  rate changes into 
account, whereas volume figures do. 
This can be useful when looking at 
changes over a period. 
This new dataset, which includes both 
seasonally  adjusted and non‐
seasonally  adjusted series for selected 
countries  and regions, has been 
prepared using methods devised in 
co‐operation  with the UN Conference  
on Trade and Development  
(UNCTAD).  
Go to www.wto.org/statistics  and 
look for “Short‐term Trade Statistics”  
or go directly to: 
www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/
quarterly_world_exp_e.htm  
(Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 = first, second, third and 
fourth quarters) PRESS/676 
Page 2 of 7 
 
 
  merchandise trade volume statistics compiled by the WTO (Chart 1 and box). 
 
The volume of world trade as measured by the average of 
exports and imports only 
managed to grow 0.3% in the second quarter compared 
to the first, or 1.2% at an 
annualized rate.  
The trade slowdown in the 
first half of 2012 was driven by an even stronger 
deceleration in imports of 
developed countries and by a corresponding weakness in 
the exports of developing 
economies, which for the purposes of this analysis 
includes the Commonwealth 
of Independent States (Table 1). 
 
The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume to grow by 2.5% in 2012 (down from 3.7% in April). On the export side, we anticipate a 1.5% increase in developed economies’ trade 
(down from 2%) and a 3.5% expansion for developing countries (down from 5.6%). On the import 
side, we foresee nearly stagnant growth of 0. 4% in developed economies (down sharply from 
1.9%) and a more robust 5.4% increase in developing countries (down from 6.2%).  
 
Table 1 ‐ World merchandise  trade and GDP, 2008‐2013 a
Annual % change
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012  a2013 a
Volume of world merchandise  trade b2.3‐12.5 13.9 5. 0 2.5 4.5
Exports
Developed  economies 0.9 ‐15.2 13.0 4.6 1.5 3.3
Developing  economies  and CIS 4.3 ‐7.8 15.3 5.3 3.5 5.7
Imports
Developed  economies ‐1.1‐14.4 11.0 2.9 0.4 3.4
Developing  economies  and CIS 8.6 ‐10.5 18.3 8.3 5.4 6.1
Real GDP at market exchange  rates 1.3 ‐2.4 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.4
Developed  economies 0.0 ‐3.8 2.7 1.5 1.2 1.5
Developing  economies  and CIS 5.6 2.2 7.3 5.3 4.9 5.2
a  Figures for 2012 and 2013 are projections.
b  Average of exports and imports.
Source: WTO Secretariat  for trade, concensus  estimates  of economic  forecasters  for GDP. 
 Chart 1 ‐ World merchandise  trade volume, 2005Q1‐2013Q4
Seasonally  adjusted index, 2005Q1=100
Source: WTO Secretariat.80.090.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q12009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3Avg. exports and imports
Forecast PRESS/676 
 Page 3 of 7 
 
 
  Chart 2 ‐ Merchandise  trade of major developed
economies,  2010Q1‐2012Q2
Seasonally  adjusted volume indices, 2010Q1=100
Source: WTO Secretariat.Exports
Imports
Intra‐EU trade95100105110115120125
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q12012Q2United States EU‐extra Japan
95100105110115
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q12012Q2United States EU‐extra Japan
95100105110115
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q12012Q2EU‐intra (exports)Figures for 2013 are provisional estimates based 
on strong assumptions about medium-term 
economic developments, including: 
(i) that current policy measures will be 
sufficient to avert a breakup of the euro, 
and 
(ii) an agreement will be reached to stabilize 
public finances in the United States, 
thereby avoiding automatic spending cuts and tax increases early next year. 
Failure of these and other assumptions could derail 
the latest projections.  
As a result, these figures should be interpreted 
with caution. Based on current information, the WTO expects trade growth to rebound to 4.5% in 
2013. Exports of developed and developing 
economies should increase by 3.3% and 5.7%, respectively, while imports of developed and 
developing countries should advance 3.4% and 
6.1%.   
Although developed countries collectively recorded 
modest increases in both exports and imports in 2012, some grew faster than others. Chart 2 
shows seasonally adjusted quarterly trade volume 
indices for the largest developed economies since the beginning of 2010. 
 
Exports of the United States and shipments from the EU to the rest of the world (i.e. extra-EU 
exports) grew steadily over the past year, with 
year-on-year increases of around 7% and 5%, respectively, in the second quarter. 
 
Japanese exports have been mostly flat since mid-2010, but even they recorded an 8.5% year-on-
year increase in the second quarter. Imports of the 
United States and Japan have also held up relatively well despite the crisis, with year-on-year 
growth of roughly 5% and 6% in the latest period.  
 However, import demand in the European Union 
has weakened significantly, resulting in less trade 
between EU countries (intra-trade down 3.5% year-on-year in the second quarter) and fewer 
imports from the rest of the world (also down 
3.5%). The weight of the EU in total world trade (around 35% on both the export and import sides 
in 2011, including EU-intra trade), combined with 
the larger-than-expected year-on-year drop in EU PRESS/676 
Page 4 of 7 
 
 
  imports through the first half of 2012, explains much of the downward revision to the forecast. The 
EU also represents nearly 60% of developed economies’ imports, which accounts for the 
stagnation in projected imports of developed economies in 2012. 
 
Weak import demand in developed countries and softer domestic demand in China have 
contributed to sagging trade flows in the developing world, most noticeably in dynamic export-oriented economies in Asia. 
 
Chart 3 shows year-on-year growth in China’s merchandise trade flows in volume terms (not seasonally adjusted), which have declined steadily over the last two and a half years. Export 
growth dropped to 2.9% and import growth fell  to 2.8% in the first quarter of 2012 before 
rebounding slightly in the second quarter, but available monthly data suggest that the third quarter results may be weaker still.  
 
Chart 3 ‐ Merchandise  exports and imports of China, 2010Q1‐2012Q2 
(year‐over‐year % change in volume, not seasonally  adjusted)
Source: WTO Secretariat.0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0Exports
Imports
 
 
Chart 4 shows year-on-year growth in monthly merchandise exports and imports for selected 
economies in current dollar terms, including partial data for the third quarter. Those economies 
that have already reported figures for August sh ow either stagnation (e.g. China) or decline 
(e.g. Brazil, Japan, Singapore), which suggests that  that the recent weakness of trade will persist 
into the third quarter. 
 Risks to the forecast will remain mostly on the downside as long as financial uncertainty in Europe 
remains elevated. Other events could also intrude to produce worse outcomes for trade, including 
a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy or geopolitical tensions. However, there is also some upside potential if the European Central Bank’s recently announced bond purchasing program has 
an immediate salutary effect on EU import demand. 
 In this case we might see slightly faster growth in the fourth quarter and for 2012 as a whole, but 
possibly less growth in 2013 as the reversion to recent trends would be weaker. The growth of 
world trade observed in the first half of 2012 is  less than what traditional econometric models 
would predict given current rates of growth in gross domestic product (GDP). 
  PRESS/676 
 Page 5 of 7 
 
 
  This also occurred during the trade collapse of 2008–09 that accompanied the global financial crisis 
and may be related to issues such as access to trade finance or, in the case of the sovereign debt 
crisis, the re-introduction of exchange rate risk into peripheral euro area economies.   
 
 PRESS/676 
Page 6 of 7 
 
 
  Chart 4
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2011-August 2012 
(Year-on-year % change in current dollar values)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China Rep. KoreaUnited States Japan
European Union (extra trade) France
Germany United Kingdom0510152025
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‐10‐505101520253035
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  PRESS/676 
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  Chart 4 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2011-August 2012 
(Year-on-year % change in current dollar values)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Brazil Russia
Singapore Chinese Taipei
Malaysia ThailandIndia South Africa‐30‐20‐1001020304050
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