PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/722 
23 September 2014 
 
(14-5340) 
TRADE STATISTICS 
WTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 
2014 
WTO economists have reduced their forecast for 
world trade growth in 2014 to 3.1% (down from 
the 4.7% forecast made in April) and cut their estimate for 2015 to 4.0% from 5.3% previously.  
 
The downgrade comes in response to weaker-than-
expected GDP growth and muted import demand in 
the first half of 2014, particularly in natural 
resource exporting regions such as South and Central America. Beyond this specific downward 
revision, risks to the forecast remain 
predominantly on the downside, as global growth remains uneven and as geopolitical tensions and 
risks have risen.  
 
“International institutions have significantly revised 
their GDP forecasts after disappointing economic 
growth in the first half of the year,” said Director-General Roberto Azevêdo. 
 
“In light of this, the WTO’s forecasts for trade growth have also been revised downwards for 2014 
and 2015. Uneven growth and continuing 
geopolitical tensions will remain a risk for both trade and output in the second half of the year. 
 
“This is a moment to remind ourselves that trade can play a positive role here. Cutting trade costs 
and broadening trade opportunities can be a key 
ingredient to reversing this trend.”  
When the last forecast was released in April 2014, conditions for stronger trade growth appeared 
to be falling into place after a two year slump that saw world merchandise trade grow just 2.2% 
on average during 2012–13, roughly equal to the ra te of growth of world gross domestic product 
MAIN POINTS 
 World merchandise  trade volume 
expected  to rise 3.1% in 2014 as 
import demand in resource rich 
regions and China weakens and as 
Europe stagnates.  
 Trade growth should pick up in 2015 
to 4%, which is still below the average 
for the last 20 years (1993‐2013) of 
5.2%, but risks abound in the form of 
geopolitical  tensions, regional conflict 
and health crises (Ebola). 
 Imports of the EU finally recovered  
their level of mid‐2011 in the latest 
quarter after rising 2.7% since the first 
quarter of 2013. 
 Imports of Developing  economies  and 
CIS stalled in the first half of 2014 , 
rising just 0.5% for the year to date 
compared  to 4.7% in 2013 
 Trade growth is slow but steady in 
the United States, 2.8% on the export 
side and 3.5% on the import side for 
the year to date. PRESS/722  
Page 2 of 8 
 
 
 (GDP). Leading indicators at the time pointed to an upturn in developed economies and Europe in 
particular. 
 
Although growth has strengthened somewhat in 2014, it has remained unsteady. Output fell in the 
first quarter in the United States (–2.1%, annualized rates) and in the second quarter in Germany 
(–0.6%), sapping global import demand. China’s GDP growth also slowed from 7.7% in 2013 to 
6.1% in the first quarter of 2014 before rebounding in the second. The slow first quarter contributed to weak exports in trading partners. 
 
As a result of these and other factors, global trade stagnated in the first half of 2014, as the 
gradual recovery of import demand in developed countries was offset by declines in developing countries. 
 
Growth in trade and output is expected to be somewhat stronger in the second half of 2014 as 
governments and central banks may provide policy support to boost growth, and as idiosyncratic 
factors that weighted on trade in the first half (e.g. harsh winter weather in the United States, a 
sales tax rise in Japan, etc.) begin to fade. However, several risk factors on the horizon have the 
potential to produce worse economic outcomes.  
Tensions between the European Union and the Un ited States on the one hand and the Russian 
Federation on the other over Ukraine have already resulted in trade sanctions on certain agricultural commodities, and the number of products  affected could widen if the crisis persists. 
Conflict in the Middle East is also stoking uncertainty, and could lead to a spike in oil prices if the 
security of oil supplies is threatened. Finally, an  outbreak of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in West 
Africa has proven difficult to contain, and any spread of the disease could trigger a broader panic 
with major economic implications for West Africa, and perhaps even beyond the region. The 
presence of several such low probability/high cost risk factors has made the trade forecast particularly difficult to gauge this year.  
 
Chart 1: Merchandise  exports and imports by level of development,  2010Q1‐2014Q4
(Seasonally  adjusted indices, 2010Q1=100)
Source: WTO Secretariat.90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4Exports
World Developed Developing90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q32014Q4Imports
World Developed Developing
  
 PRESS/722 
Page 3 of 8 
 
 
  Recent global trade developments are illustrated in 
Chart 1, which shows seasonally-adjusted, 
quarterly merchandise trade indices in volume terms (i.e. adjusted to account for fluctuations in 
prices and exchange rates) by level of 
development.
1 World trade, as measured by the 
average of exports and imports, only increased 
1.8% in the first half of 2014 compared to the 
same period in 2013, but growth for the year is expected to be higher as imports of developed 
economies continue to rise, and as imports 
rebound in developing countries following a dip in the second quarter.  
 
These developments should boost shipments from 
trading partners in both developed and developing countries. Import demand of developed economies 
actually outpaced that of developing economies in 
the first half of the year (2.6% compared to 0.5%). Meanwhile, developed economies’ exports 
were up 1.6% year-on-year in the first six months 
of 2014 while those of developing economies rose 2.1%.  
 
Asia recorded the fastest export growth of any region in the first half of 2014, with a 4.2% rise 
over the same period last year. It was followed by 
North America (3.3%), Europe (1.2%), South and Central America (–0.8%), and Other regions (–
2.0%). North America led all regions on the import 
side with growth of 3.0%, followed by Asia (2.1%), Europe (1.9%), Other regions ( −0.4) and 
South America (–3.4%). 
 
 
Table 1 summarizes the trade forecasts for 2014 and 2015, which are conditional upon consensus 
estimates of real GDP at market exchange rates. (Note: The WTO does not forecast GDP itself, 
relying instead on other organizations’ numbers 
and re-weighted according to WTO country groups). As noted above, the WTO expects the 
volume of world merchandise trade to grow by 
3.1% in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015.  
 
                                               
1  Data are sourced from WTO short-term trad e statistics, which can be downloaded here: 
http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/st atis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm . Chart 2: Merchandise  exports and imports of selected 
economies,  2010Q1‐2014Q2
(Seasonally  adjusted volume  indices, 2010Q1=100)
Source: WTO Secretariat.8090100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q2Exports
United States EU‐extra Japan Developing  Asia
8090100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q2Imports
United States EU‐extra Japan Developing  Asia
8090100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q2EU intra‐trade
EU‐intraPRESS/722  
Page 4 of 8 
 
 
 Table 1: World merchandise  trade and GDP, 2010‐2015 a
Annual % change
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
Volume of world merchandise  trade 13.9 5.4 2.3 2.2 3.1 4.0
Exports
Developed  economies 13.4 5.2 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.8
Developing  economies 15.0 5.5 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.5
North America 15.0 6.6 4.4 2.8 3.7 3.9
South and Central America 4.7 6.8 0.7 1.4 0.4 3.2
Europe 11.6 5.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.5
Asia 22.6 6.4 2.8 4.7 5.0 4.8
Other regions  b6.0 1.9 4.2 0.6 ‐0.1 4.2
Imports
Developed  economies 10.9 3.4 0.0 ‐0.3 3.4 3.7
Developing  economies 18.2 7.7 5.4 5.3 2.6 4.5
North America 15.7 4.4 3.1 1.2 3.9 4.2
South and Central America 22.4 13.0 2.3 3.1 ‐0.7 4.8
Europe 9.8 3.2 ‐1.8 ‐0.5 2.5 3.5
Asia 18.1 6.6 3.7 4.5 4.0 4.3Other regions  
b11.4 8.3 10.1 3.3 1.3 3.5
Real GDP at market exchange  rates (2005) 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.1
Developed  economies 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.2
Developing  economies 7.5 5.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.9
North America 2.7 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.1
South and Central America 6.1 4.5 2.5 3.2 1.2 2.4
Europe 2.2 2.0 ‐0 . 20 . 31 . 41 . 7
Asia 7.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.5Other regions  
b5.2 4.0 4.2 2.8 2.9 3.9
a Figures for 2014 and 2015 are projections.
b Other regions comprise  the Africa, Commonwealth  of Independent  States and Middle East.
Sources: WTO Secretariat  for trade, concensus  estimates  for GDP. 
 
On the export side, the WTO anticipates a 2.5% increase in shipments from developed economies 
in 2014, followed by a 3.8% rise in 2015. Meanwhile, exports of developing economies are 
expected to grow by 4.0% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015. Imports of developed economies are 
forecast to rise 3.4% this year and 3.7% next year, while those of developing economies increase 
2.6% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015. 
 
Perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of Table 1 is the prediction of weak or even negative trade 
growth in South and Central America and Others regions (i.e. Africa, CIS and Middle East) in 2014. 
Economies in these regions have been negatively affected by a combination of civil conflict, weak 
non-fuel commodity prices, and the easing of grow th in previously buoyant trading partners in 
Asia. Another notable point is the fact that North America’s import demand held up relatively well 
despite the GDP slowdown in the first quarter (Q1).  PRESS/722 
Page 5 of 8 
 
 
   
This may be due to the fact that much of the drop in output was caused by changes in inventories, 
which tend to even out over the business cycle. It may also signal underlying strength in consumption now that unemployment rates have fallen to 6.2%. In contrast, the jobless rate in 
the euro area remains quite high at 11.5% (10.2% for the European Union as a whole). 
 
Charts 2 and 3 show quarterly trade volume developments for selected national and regional 
economies. In Chart 2 we see that the European Union’s imports from the rest of the world 
(i.e. extra-imports) and internal trade between memb ers (i.e. intra-trade) have only just returned 
to their levels of mid-2011, whereas imports of United States, Japan and developing Asia have all risen substantially in the meantime (9%, 6% an d 12%, respectively). Given the EU’s large 32% 
share in world merchandise imports, it appears likely that the trade bloc’s weak demand will 
continue to exert a strong drag on gl obal trade for some time to come.  
 
Chart 3 illustrates the extent of the trade slowdown in South and Central America and Other regions (i.e. Africa/CIS/Middle East). In the latest  quarter, South and Central America’s export and 
imports were down 3.7% and 4.9% year-on-year, while those of Africa/CIS/Middle East had declined by 3.9% on the export side and 0.9% on the import side. By comparison, exports and 
imports of Developing Asia were up roug hly +6% and +1% in the latest quarter. 
 
Chart 3: Merchandise  exports and imports of natural resource exporting  regions, 2010Q1‐2014Q2
(Non‐seasonally  adjusted volume  indices, 2010Q1=100)
Source: WTO Secretariat.‐6‐4‐202468101214
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q12014Q2Exports
South and Central America Africa/CIS/Middle  East‐10‐505101520253035
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q32010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2Imports
South and Central America Africa/CIS/Middle  East
 
 
Finally, nominal merchandise trade statistics in current dollar terms may provide a better indication of current trade trends than statisti cs in volume terms since the former are generally 
timelier. These are shown in Chart 4 for selected major traders through July or August depending on data availability. In the chart we observe th at year-on-year growth in exports and imports 
remained positive in the United States in July (+5% and +4%, respectively), as it did in the 
European Union (+4% and +7% for total trade). Me anwhile, although China’s exports were up 9% 
in August, the country’s imports fell 2%. Overall, the trade figures in dollar terms appear to be 
holding steady and showing modest growth.  PRESS/722  
Page 6 of 8 
 
 
 Chart 4 
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, July 2012-July 2014
(Year-on-year percentage change in current dollar values)
a  January and February averaged to minimize distortions due to lunar new  year.
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China (August)  aRep. Korea (August)United States Japan
European Union (extra trade) France
Germany United Kingdom‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐40‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐100102030
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports‐8‐6‐4‐202468
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
 PRESS/722 
Page 7 of 8 
 
 
  Chart 4  (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, July 2012-July 2014
(Year-on-year percentage change in current dollar values)
a  January and February averaged to minimize distortions due to lunar new  year.
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Brazil (August) Russian Fed.
Singapore Chinese Taipei (August) a
Malaysia ThailandIndia (August) South Africa (August)‐30‐20‐100102030
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐100102030
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐1001020304050
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
 PRESS/722  
Page 8 of 8 
 
 
 Chart 4 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, July 2012-July 2014
(Year-on-year percentage change in current dollar values)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Australia Canada
Turkey Indonesia
Memo: European Union (total trade) Memo: European Union (intra trade)Argentina Mexico
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14‐40‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐505101520
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐100102030
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐100102030
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports‐25‐20‐15‐10‐50510152025
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
‐8‐6‐4‐2024681012
Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14Exports
Imports
END