PRESS RELEASE 
 
PRESS/752 
30 September 2015 
 
(15-5047) 
TRADE STATISTICS 
Falling import demand, lower commo dity prices push down trade 
growth prospects  
WTO economists have lowered their forecast for 
world trade growth in 2015 to 2.8%, from the 
3.3% forecast made in April, and reduced their estimate for 2016 to 3.9% from 4.0%.  
 
These revisions reflect a number of factors that weighed on the global economy in the first half of 
2015, including falling import demand in China, 
Brazil and other emerging economies; falling prices for oil and other primary commodities; and 
significant exchange rate fluctuations.  
Volatility in financial markets, uncertainty over the changing stance of monetary policy in the United 
States and mixed recent economic data have 
clouded the outlook for the world economy and trade in the second half of the year and beyond.   
 
If current projections are realised, 2015 will mark the fourth consecutive year in which annual trade 
growth has fallen below three per cent and the 
fourth year where trade has grown at roughly the same rate as world GDP, rather than twice as fast, 
as was the case in the 1990s and early 2000s. 
 "Trade can act as a catalyst for economic growth. 
At a time of great uncertainty, increased trade 
could help reinvigorate the global economy and lift prospects for development and poverty alleviation. 
WTO Members can help to set trade growth on a 
more robust trajectory by seizing the initiative on a number of fronts, notably by negotiating concrete 
outcomes by our December Ministerial Conference 
in Nairobi," Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said.   
 
MAIN POINTS 
 World merchandise  trade volume is 
expected  to rise 2.8% in 2015 , down 
from the previous estimate of 3.3%, as 
slowing import demand in China, 
Brazil and other emerging  economies  
reduce exports of trading partners. 
 Trade growth in 2016 should pick up 
to 3.9% , down slightly from the last 
estimate of 4.0, and still below the 
average for the last 20 years (1995‐
2015) of 5%. 
 Risks to the forecast are firmly on the 
downside , the most prominent  being 
a further slowing of economic  activity 
in developing  economies  and financial 
instability  stemming  from  eventual 
interest rate rises in the United States. 
 Asian export and import growth for 
2015 has been revised down as 
slower growth in Chinse imports has 
reduced intra‐regional trade.  
 South American  imports have also 
been revised down sharply but the 
region's export volume growth should 
remain positive in 2015 and 2016. PRESS/752 
Page 2 of 8 
 
 
  Global output is still expanding at a moderate pa ce but risks to the world economy are increasingly 
on the downside.  These include a sharper-than-e xpected slowdown in emerging and developing 
economies, the possibility of destabilizing financial flows from an eventual interest rate rise by the 
US Federal Reserve, and unanticipated costs associ ated with the migration crisis in Europe.   
 
At the time of our last forecast in April 2015, world trade and output appeared to be strengthening based on available data through 2014Q4. However,  results for the first half of 2015 were below 
expectations as quarterly growth turned negati ve, averaging -0.7% in Q1 and Q2. Recent trade 
developments are illustrated in Chart 1, which shows seasonally-adjusted, quarterly merchandise 
trade indices in volume terms (i.e. adjusted to account for fluctuations in prices and exchange 
rates) by level of development.
1  Despite the quarterly declines in the first half of 2015, year-on-
year growth in trade for the year to date remains positive at 2.3%.  
Chart 1: Merchandise  exports and imports by level of development,  2010Q1‐2015Q4
(Seasonally  adjusted volume indices, 2010Q1=100)
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Note: Data for 2015Q3 and 2015Q4 are forecasts and are indicated  by broken segments  of lines.90100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q32011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q12012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q32015Q1
2015Q3Exports
World Developed Developing90100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q32011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q12012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q32014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3Imports
World Developed Developing
 
 
Quarterly export growth of developed economies wa s essentially flat in the first two quarters of 
2015 (-0.2% on average in Q1 and Q2), but those of developing countries were more negative (-1.9%). The drop in exports was driven by weaker developing countries' imports (-2.2%) and 
stagnation in developed countries' imports (+0.1%).   
 Trade growth remains uneven across countries and regions as illustrated by Chart 2, which shows 
WTO merchandise trade volume indices by geographical region.  After a long period of stagnation, 
Europe recorded the fastest year-on-year export gr owth of any region in Q2 at 2.7%, followed by 
North America (2.1%), Asia (0.6%), South and Central America (0.4%) and Other Regions (-
1.0%, including Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East).  
Disparities between regional growth rates was stronger on the import side than on the export side, 
                                               
1  Data are sourced from WTO short-term trade statistics, which can be downloaded here: 
http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/st atis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm PRESS/752 
Page 3 of 8 
 
 
  with positive growth of 6.5% in North America, 3.1% in Asia and 1.6% in Europe, and declines of 
2.3% in South and Central America and 3.1% in Other Regions.   
 
Chart 2: Volume of merchandise  exports and imports by region, 2010Q1‐2015Q2
(Seasonally  adjusted volume indices, 2010Q1=100)
Source: WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.90100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q32011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q12013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1Exports
North America South America Europe
Asia Others90100110120130140
2010Q1
2010Q32011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q12013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1Imports
North America South America Europe
Asia Other regions
 
 
Table 1 shows revised trade projections for 2015 and 2016, which depend on consensus estimates 
of world real GDP growth at market exchange rates.2  The WTO now expects world merchandise 
trade volume as measured by the average of ex ports and imports to grow 2.8% in 2015 and 3.9% 
in 2016. On the export side, shipments from developed economies should rise 3.0% this year and 
3.9% next year. Developing economies' exports are expected to grow more slowly at 2.4% in 
2015 and 3.8% in 2016. Imports of developed economies should increase at around the same rate in 2015 (3.1%) and in 2016 (3.2%), while those of developing economies pick up from 2.5% this 
year to 5.2% next year. 
 The strongest downward revision to the previous  export forecast for 2015 was applied to Asia, 
where our estimate was lowered to 3.1% from 5.0% in April.  This is mostly due to falling intra-
regional trade as China's economy has slowed.  The downward revision to Asia on the import side was even stronger, from 5.1% to 2.6%, partly due to lower Chinese imports which were down 
2.2% year-on-year in Q2 (non-seasonally adjusted data).  The product composition of China's 
merchandise imports suggests that some of the slowdown may be related the country's ongoing transition from investment to consumption led growth.  Large year-on-year drops in quantities of 
imported machinery (-9%) and metals (iron an d steel -10%, copper -6%) were recorded in 
customs statistics for August, while strong increases were recorded for agricultural products including cereal grains (+130%) and oilseeds (+33%). 
 
                                               
2 The WTO does not produce its own GDP figures, relying instead on other organizations’ 
estimates, which are re-weighted according to WTO country groups at market exchange rates. PRESS/752 
Page 4 of 8 
 
 
  Table 1: Merchandise  trade volume and real GDP, 2011‐2016 a
Annual % change
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P 2016P
Volume of world merchandise  trade 5.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.9
Exports
Developed  economies 5.1 1.1 2.2 2.0 3.0 3.9
Developing  economies 5.9 3.7 3.8 3.1 2.4 3.8
North America 6.6 4.4 2.7 4.2 4.4 3.9
South and Central America 6.4 0.9 1.9 ‐1.3 0.5 3.1
Europe 5.5 0.8 2.4 1.6 2.8 3.7Asia 6.4 2.7 5.0 4.7 3.1 5.4Other regions  
b2.3 3.9 0.7 ‐0.4 0.5 0.5
Imports
Developed  economies 3.4 0.0 ‐0.1 2.9 3.1 3.2
Developing  economies 7.7 4.9 5.2 1.8 2.5 5.2
North America 4.3 3.2 1.2 4.6 6.4 5.2
South and Central America 12.1 2.3 3.4 ‐2.4‐5.6 5.7
Europe 3.2 ‐1.8‐0.2 2.3 3.2 3.4
Asia 6.5 3.7 4.8 3.4 2.6 4.3Other regions  
b7.8 9.9 4.1 ‐1.4‐1.5 0.5
Real GDP at market exchange  rates (2005) 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.8
Developed  economies 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1
Developing  economies 5.9 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.5 4.2
North America 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7
South and Central America 5.1 2.8 3.3 1.0 ‐1.1 0.4
Europe 2.0 ‐0.2 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.9
Asia 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.2Other regions  
b4.1 3.7 2.6 2.6 1.4 2.9
a Figures for 2015 and 2016 are projections.
b Other regions comprise  the Africa, Commonwealth  of Independent  States and Middle East.
Sources: WTO Secretariat  for trade, concensus  estimates  for GDP. 
 
Another noteworthy revision relates to the import  forecast for South and Central America in 2015, 
which was lowered to -5.6 from -0.5  in April.  Much of this reduct ion can be attributed to adverse 
economic developments in Brazil, which has been simultaneously hit by a fiscal crisis, a financial scandal involving the country's largest company, and falling export prices.  Brazil's merchandise imports in Q2 were down 13% year-on-year compar ed to the same period in 2014.  A rebound in 
imports of South and Central America is expected in 2016 as Brazil's GDP growth stabilizes and its import start to recover. Other countries in the region should also see imports accelerate as their economies pick up next year.  The size of the rebound in 2016 is also partly explained by the fact that future growth will be proceeding from a lower base following the steep decline in 2015.     If the slowdown in emerging markets worsens the revised forecasts in Table 1 could still prove to 
be overly optimistic.  In particular, a slower rebound from recent declines in developing economies' imports could shave half a percentage po int off of global trade growth in 2015. PRESS/752 
Page 5 of 8 
 
 
   
Finally, nominal merchandise trade statistics sometimes provide a better indication of current trade trends than statistics in volume terms since the former are generally timelier. These are illustrated 
by Charts 3 and 4.  However, trade statistics in do llar terms are highly sensitive to fluctuations in 
prices and exchange rates and should be interpreted with caution. 
 
Trade values in dollar terms have declined in most countries since last year and were down roughly 12% year-on-year in July at the world level. This is partly the result of a strong general 
appreciation of the US dollar over this period (+15% in nominal effective terms against major 
currencies according to the Bank for International Settlements). As Chart 3 shows, there is generally an inverse relationship between world trade values in current dollar terms and the value 
of the US currency.  For example, Germany's ex ports and imports were both down 14% year on 
year in dollar terms in July, but they were up 6% in euro terms.  
Chart 3
Effective exchange  rates and world merchandise  exports, Jan. 2006 ‐ July 2016
Sources: WTO Secretariat,  Bank for International  Settlements.02004006008001000120014001600
8090100110120130140150160
2006m1
2006m5
2006m9
2007m1
2007m5
2007m9
2008m12008m5
2008m9
2009m1
2009m5
2009m9
2010m1
2010m5
2010m9
2011m12011m5
2011m9
2012m1
2012m5
2012m9
2013m1
2013m52013m9
2014m1
2014m5
2014m9
2015m1
2015m5
US$ nominal effective exchange  rates
(left scale, index 2010=100)World merchandise  exports
(right scale, billion US$)
 PRESS/752 
Page 6 of 8 
 
 
  Chart 4
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2010-August 2015
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China Rep. KoreaUnited States Japan
European Union (extra trade) France
Germany United Kingdom050100150200250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
0102030405060708090
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
050100150200250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
01020304050607080
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
020406080100120140160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
010203040506070
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
050100150200250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
0102030405060
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im portsPRESS/752 
Page 7 of 8 
 
 
  Chart 4 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2010-August 2015
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Brazil Russian Fed.
Singapore Chinese Taipei
Malaysia ThailandIndia South Africa051015202530
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
0102030405060
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
01020304050
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
024681012
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
01020304050
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
051015202530
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
051015202530
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
0510152025
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
 PRESS/752 
Page 8 of 8 
 
 
  Chart 4 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2010-August 2015
(Billion dollars)
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Turkey Indonesia
Memo: European Union (intra trade) Memo: European Union (total trade)ArgentinaCanada
MexicoAustralia
0100200300400500600700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
050100150200250300350400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150246810
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
010203040
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports01020304050
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
05101520
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
0510152025
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Im ports
05101520
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Expo rts
Imports
 
END