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PRESS/688 
10 April 2013 
 
(13-1828) 
WORLD TRADE 2012, PROSPECTS FOR 2013 
Trade to remain subdued in 2013 af ter sluggish growth in 2012 as 
European economies continue to struggle 
World trade growth fell to 2.0% in 2012 — down from 5.2% in 2011 — and is expected to remain 
sluggish in 2013 at around 3.3% as the economic slowdown in Europe continues to suppress global 
import demand, WTO economists reported on 10 April 2013.  
 
The abrupt deceleration of trade in 2012 was attr ibuted to slow growth in developed economies 
and recurring bouts of uncertainty over the future of the euro. Flagging output and high unemployment in 
developed countries reduced imports and fed through 
to a lower pace of export growth in both developed and developing economies.  
 
Improved economic prospects for the United States in 2013 should only partly offset the continued weakness 
in the European Union, whose economy is expected to 
remain flat or even contract slightly this year according to consensus estimates.  
 
China’s growth should continue to outpace other leading economies, cushioning the slowdown, but 
exports will still be constrained by weak demand in 
Europe. As a result, 2013 looks to be a near repeat of 2012, with both trade and output expanding slowly, 
below their long-term average rates (Chart 1). 
 “The events of 2012 should serve as a reminder that 
the structural flaws in economies that were revealed 
by the economic crisis have not been fully addressed, despite important progress in some areas. Repairing 
these fissures needs to be the priority for 2013,” 
Director General Pascal Lamy said. “Attempts by developed economies to strike a balance 
between short-term growth and increasingly binding 
MAIN POINTS 
World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012 
was down sharply compared  to the 
5.2% recorded in 2011. 
Projected  trade growth of 3.3% in 
2013 is below the 20‐year average 
of 5.3% and well below the pre‐
crisis trend of 6.0% (1990‐2008). 
Renewed  uncertainty  about the 
euro reduced EU imports in 2012 
and hit exports of trading partners. 
Falling trade within the EU strongly 
influenced  2012 results due to the 
weight of the EU in world trade 
totals. 
Significant  downside  risks remain 
centred on the euro crisis and the 
pace of fiscal contraction  in 
developed  economies.  
Diverging  prospects  for the US and 
EU add uncertainty  to the forecast. PRESS/688 
Page 2 of 27 
 
 
  fiscal constraints have produced uneven results to date, and finding an appropriate mix of policies 
has proven to be challenging. Similarly, the amount of progress that developing economies have 
made in reducing their reliance on external demand is still unclear.   
“As long as global economic weakness persists , protectionist pressure will build and could 
eventually become overwhelming. The threat of protectionism may be greater now than at any 
time since the start of the crisis, since other polices to restore growth have been tried and found 
wanting. 
 “To prevent a self-destructive lapse into economic nationalism, countries need to refocus their 
attention on reinforcing the multilateral trading system. Trade can once again be  an engine of 
growth and a source of strength for the global economy rather than a barometer of instability. The way is before us, we only need to  find the will,” Mr Lamy said. 
 
 
 
The preliminary estimate of 2.0% growth for world trade in 2012 is 0.5 points below the WTO’s 
most recent forecast of 2.5% from September 2012. The deviation is mostly explained by the 
worse than expected second-half performance of developed economies, which only managed a 1% increase in exports and a 0.1% decline in impo rts for the year. The growth of exports from 
developing economies (which for the purposes of  this analysis includes the Commonwealth of 
Independent States) was in line with earlier predictions, but the rate for imports was less than expected. WTO economists cautioned that their trade forecasts for 2013 and 2014 were difficult to 
gauge due to divergent outlooks for the US and EU.  
 These figures refer to merchandise trade in volume  terms, i.e., adjusted to account for inflation 
and exchange rate movements, but nominal (dolla r-value) trade flows for both merchandise and 
commercial services display similar trends.  Chart 1: Growth in volume of world merchandise  trade and GDP, 2005‐14 a
Annual % change
a  Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.‐15.0‐10.0‐5.00.05.010.015.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014Exports
GDPAverage export 
growth 1992-2012
Average GDP growth 
1992-2012 PRESS/688 
 Page 3 of 27 
 
 
   
In 2012, the dollar value of world merchandise expo rts only increased two tenths of one per cent 
(i.e. 0.2%) to $18.3 trillion, leaving it essentially unchanged. The slower growth in the dollar value 
of world trade compared to trade in volume terms is explained by falling pr ices for traded goods. 
Some of the biggest price declines were recorded for commodities such as coffee (–22 %), cotton 
(–42%), iron ore (–23%) and coal (–21%), according to IMF commodity price statistics.   
The value of world commercial services exports rose just 2% in 2012 to $4.3 trillion, with strong 
differences in growth rates across countries and re gions. For example, the US saw its exports of 
commercial services climb 4% while those of Germany dropped 2% and France’s tumbled 7%. On 
the import side, several European countries record ed sharp declines, including Italy (–8%), France 
(–10%), Portugal (–16%) and Greece (–18%).   
The trade forecast for 2013 assumes 2.1% growth in world output at market exchange rates 
(unchanged from 2012) based on a consensus of economic forecasters. Risks to the forecast are firmly rooted on the downside and are mostly linked to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. 
 
Accelerated fiscal consolidation in the US could also undermine the forecast if brinksmanship over budget negotiations between the executive and le gislative branches leads to miscalculation. As 
always, unexpected events such as geopolitical tensions and natural disasters could also intrude to 
disrupt trade.  
On a more positive note, some factors that held back trade growth in 2012 may subside in 2013, 
including the recent territorial dispute that soured trade relations between Japan and China.  
Indicators of production, business sentiment and employment in the first quarter of 2013 paint a 
mixed picture of current economic conditions. Purchasing managers’ indices suggest that the euro-zone downturn may have accelerated despite conti nued resilience in Germany. At the same time, 
the US recorded a strong rise in manufacturing, Japan’s production growth was less negative, and 
China and the Republic of Korea showed modest improvements.   
Unemployment in the US recently fell to its lowest level since before the economic crisis at 7.6%, 
whereas the rate for the euro area stands at close to 12%. Together, these indicators point to weak import demand in Europe even as conditio ns gradually improve elsewhere. In light of the 
large weight of the EU in world imports (32% in 2012 including trade within the EU, 15% excluding 
it), this suggests slow growth for trade in the early part of 2013.  PRESS/688 
Page 4 of 27 
 
 
  More details on trade developments 
in 2012 
WTO statistics on short-term trade 
developments illustrate the divergent trade 
performances of major economies over the 
course of 2012. Chart 2 shows seasonally-adjusted quarterly merchandise trade 
volume indices for the US, the EU, Japan 
and developing Asia (including China). Exports from the US and from the EU to the 
rest of the world (i.e. EU-extra exports) 
remained relatively strong for most of the year before dipping slightly in the fourth 
quarter (Q4). Asian exports also held up 
relatively well, finishing the year on a positive note after pausing in the third 
quarter (Q3).  
 Meanwhile, Japan’s shipments of goods 
dropped 11% in the last two quarters of the 
year. This downturn appears to have been caused by a deterioration of Japan’s trade 
with China. Annual figures on merchandise 
trade in dollar terms show that the value of Japan’s exports declined by 3% in 2012. 
However, shipments to China, which 
represent around 20% of the country’s exports, were down 11% year-on-year, 
while exports to other destinations only 
declined by 1%.  
On the import side, the EU maintained its 
recent downward trajectory, with Q4 imports from the rest of the world falling to 
5% below their level in the middle of 2011, 
and imports from other EU countries (i.e. intra-EU trade) slipping by the same 
amount.  
 Japanese imports recorded strong growth 
for most of the year before dropping 6% in 
Q4. The rise in imports in the earlier quarters was partly due to increased 
purchases of fuels from abroad for use in 
conventional thermal electricity generation following the loss of output from nuclear 
power stations after the Fukushima 
disaster. The dollar value of Japanese imports rose 3.5% in 2012, but imports 
from Saudi Arabia were up 8% and Chart 2 ‐ Quarterly  merchandise  trade flows of selected 
economies,  2010Q1‐2012Q4
Seasonally  adjusted volume indices, 2010Q1=100
Source: WTO Short‐term trade statistics.Exports
Imports
Intra‐EU trade9095100105110115120125130
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4 United States EU‐extra Japan Developing  Asia
9095100105110115120125130
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4 United States EU‐extra Japan Developing  Asia
9095100105110115120
2010Q1
2010Q22010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q12011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4 EU‐intra (exports) PRESS/688 
 Page 5 of 27 
 
 
  purchases from Qatar (mostly natural gas) rose  19%. Japan’s merchandise trade deficit of $87 
billion for 2012 was the largest ever recorded for the country in a dataset stretching back to 1948. 
 Quarterly developments for trade in commercial serv ices show a similar pattern to trade in goods, 
with year-on-year growth in dollar values flat or  declining in Europe and growing in other regions. 
For more short-term trade statistics, visits the WTO’s statistics portal at: www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm  
 
The growth of world merchandise trade in 2012 wa s much lower than one would expect given the 
rate of world gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year. Under normal conditions, the 
growth rate for trade is usually around twice that of GDP, but in 2012 the ratio of trade growth to 
GDP growth fell to 1:1. We foresee no change in world GDP growth for 2013 but we do anticipate a partial return toward the usual ratio of trade grow th to GDP growth. In 2013 it should increase to 
1.6:1 and then to 1.8:1 in 2014.  
 Despite the unusually slow rate of trade volume growth in 2012, the ratio of world exports of 
merchandise and commercial service to world GDP in current dollar terms only dipped slightly, 
from around 32%, and remained close to its peak value of 33% in 2008 (Chart 3).  
Finally, it should be noted that slowing economic growth in Europe has a disproportionate impact 
on world trade due to the fact that by convention we include trade between EU countries in world trade totals. However, if we were to treat the EU as a single entity, which it is for purposes of 
trade policy, the slowdown in world trade in 2012 would not appear as extreme. In this case world 
trade growth would be 3.2% in 2012 rather than 2.0%. 
 PRESS/688 
Page 6 of 27 
 
 
   
 
Additional perspective on the trade forecast 
The WTO’s forecast of 3.3% growth in merchandise trade for 2013 is below the average rate of 
5.3% for the last 20 years (1992–2012) and well below the pre-crisis average rate of 6.0% (1990–
2008) (Chart 4). The divergence from the 20-year average narrows in the 2-year-ahead forecast 
for 2014 (5.0%), but it still remains below averag e. The difference between the pre-crisis trend 
and current and projected values for world trade appears to be widening, albeit slowly. If our 
forecast comes to pass, the gap in percentage terms will be 17.0% in 2013 and 17.8% in 2014.  
 At some point in the future trade growth will again surpass its 20 year average, if only because 
this average keeps falling with every passing year of sub-par growth. When or if it will manage to 
bridge the gap with its pre-crisis trend remains to be seen. In addition to a durable level shift in 
the series, it appears that the fundamental grow th rate of world trade volumes has also been 
reduced. To return to this trend would require a pe riod of very rapid trade expansion at some point 
in the future, but such a boom in trade does not appear likely any time soon.  Chart 3: Ratio of world exports of merchandise  and commercial  services 
to world GDP, 1980‐2012
Ratio of current $ values
Source: IMF for world GDP, WTO Secretariat  for merchandise  trade, WTO Secretariat  and UNCTAD for
commercial  services.22.4
18.432.7
27.731.8
1520253035
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 PRESS/688 
 Page 7 of 27 
 
 
   
 
The state of the world economy and trade in 2012 
Economic growth 
Economies in the euro area stalled in 2012 and the sovereign debt crisis flared again in the 
summer, pushing long-term borrowing costs for Italy and Spain above 6% and stoking uncertainty 
about the future of the common currency (Chart 5) . Growth also slowed worryingly in the US in 
Q4, and Japan slipped in and out of recession duri ng the year. As a result, world GDP growth at 
market exchange rates dropped to 2.1% in 2012 from 2.4% in 2011. This pace of expansion was 
below the average of 3.2% for the two decades preceding the financial crisis and also below the 2.8% average of the last 20 years including the crisis period ( Table 1 ). 
 
Policy responses from the European Central Ba nk and the Federal Reserve appear to have 
succeeded in easing the sovereign debt crisis and putting US growth on a firmer footing. Borrowing 
costs in the euro area have returned to manageable levels since September and joblessness in the 
US has begun to fall, but progress to date remains fragile.   
The 2.3% growth in the US was nearly double the 1.2% rate for developed economies as a whole 
in 2012. Japan’s increase for the year was also above average at 1.9%, but the EU’s growth was close to zero at –0.3%.  
 
 Chart 4: Volume of world merchandise  exports , 1990‐2014 a
Indices, 1990=100
a  Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.50100150200250300350400
1990
1991
1992
19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
2004
20052006200720082009201020112012
2013P2014PExport volume
Forecast
Trend (1990‐2008)PRESS/688 
Page 8 of 27 
 
 
   
 
Developing countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) collectively raised their 
output by 4.7% in 2012, with Africa recording the fastest growth of any country or region at 9.3%. China was not far behind at 7.8%, while India recorded a 5.2% increase. However, the newly 
industrialized Asian economies of Hong Kong (C hina), the Republic of Korea, Singapore and 
Chinese Taipei registered a disappointing 1.8% increase as slumping European demand penalized their exports. 
 
The next fastest growing region after Africa was As ia (3.8%) followed by the CIS (3.7), the Middle 
East (3.3%), South and Central America (2.6%) , North America (2.3%) and Europe (–0.1%). 
Aggregate quarterly figures for world GDP growth ar e not readily available, but such growth likely 
slowed toward the end of the year as output in the EU contracted in Q4 and US and Japanese growth slowed.  
 Chart 5: Long‐term interest rates on euro area sovereign  debt, July 2008 ‐ February  2013 a
Period average % per annum
a  Secondary  market yi el ds on 10‐ye a r government  bonds issued by all euro ar ea governments  except Estonia, 
Greece and Cyprus, sorted in descending  order by ra tes in February  2013.
Source: European  Centra l Bank.0.02.55.07.510.012.515.0
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐11
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐12
Oct‐12
Jan‐13Portugal
Spain
Slovenia
Italy
Slovakia
Ireland
Malta
Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
Luxembourg
Germany PRESS/688 
 Page 9 of 27 
 
 
   
Merchandise trade in volume (i.e. real) terms 
The volume of world merchandise trade (as meas ured by the average of exports and imports) 
registered an increase of just 2% in 2012. If we exclude years in which trade volume declined, this was the smallest annual increase in a dataset extending back to 1981. Shipments from developed 
countries grew more slowly than the world av erage at 1.0%, while exports of developing 
economies grew faster at 3.3%. On the import si de, developed economies dropped 0.1% last year, 
while developing economies grew at a 4.6% pace ( Table 1 ). 
 
After seeing its exports shrink by 8.5% in 2011 foll owing the Libyan civil war, Africa rebounded in 
2012 to record the fastest export growth of any region at 6.1%. This was followed by North 
America, where exports rose 4.5% on the strength  of a 4.1% increase the US. Asia only managed 
to increase its exports by 2.8% in 2012 despite 6. 2% growth in China’s exports. Contributing to 
the slow growth in Asia were India and Japa n, where exports declined by 0.5% and 1.0%, 
respectively. Other regions that export large quantities of natural resources saw small increases in 
export volumes, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (1.6%), South and Central America (1.4%), and the Middle East (1.2%). This is to be expected since quantities of primary 
products tend not to change very much from year to year. The region with the slowest export 
growth was again Europe at 0.6%, but the EU managed to grow even more slowly at 0.3%.  
Africa’s imports also grew faster than those of any other region at 11.3%, making it the only 
region with double digit growth in either exports or imports. This was followed by the Middle East 
(7.9%) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (6.8%), which took advantage of the high 
average oil prices in 2012 to boost their export earnings to purchase more imports (Table 2). 
Asia’s import growth of 3.7% was driven by a 3.6% increase in China. North America’s 3.1% rise was slightly stronger than that of the US (2.8%). South and Central America, with import growth 
of 1.8%, lagged behind all regions other than Europe, which recorded a 1.9% decline in imports. 
 Table 1: Real GDP and merchandise  trade volume growth by region, 2010‐12
Annual % change
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
World 3.8 2.4 2.1 14.1 5.2 2.1 13.6 5.1 1.9
North America 2.6 2.0 2.3 15.0 6.6 4.5 15.7 4.4 3.1
United States 2.4 1.8 2.2 15.4 7.1 4.1 14.8 3.8 2.8
South and Central America  a 6.2 4.3 2.6 5.2 6.1 1.4 22.7 12.0 1.8
Europe 2.3 1.7 ‐0.1 11.0 5.5 0.6 9.4 2.8 ‐1.9
European  Union (27) 2.1 1.5 ‐0.3 11.7 5.7 0.3 9.1 2.4 ‐2.0
Commonwealth  of
 Independent  States (CIS) 4.7 4.8 3.7 6.1 1.8 1.6 18.8 17.1 6.8
Africa 4.5 0.7 9.3 5.4 ‐8.5 6.1 8.1 4.5 11.3
Middle East 4.9 5.2 3.3 7.5 5.5 1.2 8.2 5.1 7.9
Asia 6.7 3.3 3.8 22.7 6.4 2.8 18.2 6.7 3.7
China 10.4 9.2 7.8 28.1 8.8 6.2 22.0 8.8 3.6
Japan 4.5 ‐0.6 1.9 27.5 ‐0.6‐1.0 10.1 4.3 3.7
India 10.1 7.9 5.2 25.7 15.0 ‐0.5 22.7 9.7 7.2
Newly industrialized
 economies  (4)  b 8.2 4.0 1.8 20.9 7.8 1.6 17.9 2.7 1.5
Memo: Developed  economies 2.7 1.5 1.2 13.1 5.1 1.0 10.7 3.1 ‐0.1
Memo: Developing  and CIS 7.3 5.3 4.7 15.3 5.4 3.3 18.2 8.0 4.6
a  Includes the Caribbean.
b  Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore  and Chinese Taipei.
Source:  WTO Secretariat.GDP Exports ImportsPRESS/688 
Page 10 of 27 
 
 
   
Merchandise and commercial services trade in value (i.e. dollar) terms 
The dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2012 was $18.3 trillion, nearly unchanged from 
2011. The stagnation in values reduced the average growth rate for the post-2005 period to 8% 
from 10% last year. This contrasts with the stronger growth rates of 22% in 2010 and 20% in 2011. Meanwhile, world commercial services exports in 2012 were only 2% higher than in 2011 at 
$4.3 trillion. The 2012 growth rate for transport services was in line with total world commercial 
services exports at 2%, while travel services grew faster (4%) and other commercial services grew more slowly (1%) ( Table 3 ).  
 
Commercial services accounted for roughly 19% of total world trade in world goods and commercial services in 2012. However, it should be  noted that traditional trade statistics, which 
measure gross trade flows rather than value added at various stages of production, strongly 
underestimate the contribution of services to in ternational trade. A joint initiative between the 
WTO and the Organisation for Economic Cooperat ion and Development (OECD) has developed new 
indicators of trade in value added that provide a dditional perspective on the role of services in 
world trade. More information can be found on the WTO’s website, here:  www.wto.org/miwi  
 Table 2: World prices of selected primary products,  2000‐12
Annual % change and $/barrel
2010 2011 2012 2000 ‐12 2005 ‐12
All commodities 26 29 ‐31 01 0
Metals 48 14 ‐17 10 10
Food 11 20 ‐278
Beverages  a14 17 ‐19 7 8
Agricultural  raw materials 32 23 ‐13 3 4
Energy 26 36 1 12 11
Memo: Crude oil price in $/barrel b79 104 105 60 79
a  Comprising  coffee, cocoa beans and tea.
b   Average of Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate.
Source: IMF International  Financial Statistics. PRESS/688 
 Page 11 of 27 
 
 
   
 
Some sub-categories of other commercial services grew faster than others. Communications (including postal, courier and telecommunications services) declined by 3%, while construction 
rose 3% and insurance services increased by 2% in 2012. The biggest decline was observed in 
financial services (i.e. services provided by banks and other financial intermediaries), which fell 4%. The fastest growing sub-sector of other commercial services was computer and information 
services, which jumped 6% in 2012. Royalties and licence fees fell 2%, and other business 
services (including engineering services, legal/accounting services, management consulting, advertising and trade related services, among others) increased by 2%. 
 
In dollar terms, US exports of financial services declined by 4% in 2012, the United Kingdom dropped 13%, Germany slipped 2% and France plunged 20%. Several other EU countries also 
recorded double digit declines in financial services, including Austria (–11%), Cyprus (–21%), 
Greece (–29%) and Spain (–11%). Total exports of fi nancial services from Switzerland declined by 
8%. Meanwhile, Japan’s exports of financial se rvices gained 13% and China’s advanced 58%. 
Finally, the Asian financial centres of Singapore and Hong Kong, China treaded water in 2012 with 
0% and 4% growth, respectively.
 1 
 
Overall, developed economies’ exports of financial services fell 6% while those of developing 
economies and Commonwealth of Independent States together rose 3%. 
                                               
1 Data for Singapore include fina ncial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM). Table 3: World exports of merchandise  and commercial  services, 2005‐12
$bn and annual % change
Value 
2012 2010 2011 2012 2005 ‐12
Merchandise 18323 22 20 0 8Commercial  services 4345 10 11 2 8
Transport 885 16 9 2 7Travel 1105 9 12 4 7Other commercial  services 2350 8 12 1 10
of which:
Communications  services 100 3 10 ‐38
Construction 110 ‐483 1 0
Insurance  services 100 1 0 2 11
Financial  services 300 7 12 ‐48
Computer  and information  services 265 12 14 6 14
Royalties  and licence fees 285 8 14 ‐29
Other business  services 1145 9 13 2 9
Personal,  cultural and 
recreational  services 35 14 13 3 7
Memo: Goods and commercial  
services (BOP) 22520 19 18 1 8
Source: WTO Secretariat  estimates  for merchandise  and WTO and UNCTAD Secretariat  estimates
for commercial  services.Annual % changePRESS/688 
Page 12 of 27 
 
 
   
The US dollar appreciated against most major currencies between 2012 and 2013, rising nearly 
4% on average according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Chart 6). Exceptions 
include the Chinese yuan, which appreciated 2.4% against the dollar, and the Japanese yen, which 
was more or less unchanged against the dollar (-0.2%). This would tend to understate the value of 
some trade flows in 2013 and overstate the magnitud e of any declines from 2012, particularly for 
trade not denominated in dollars (e.g. trade within the EU). 
 
 
 
 
Appendix tables 1 to 6  provide detailed information on nominal merchandise and commercial 
services trade flows by region and for selected economies. They also include tables of leading 
exporters and importers with and without trade between EU states. There were few significant 
moves up or down in world rankings last year . France overtook China as an exporter of 
commercial services compared to last year’s tables, but this was due to changes in data coverage rather than an improved export performance in France. Maps 1  and 2 show shares of regions in 
world exports and imports of merchandise and commercial services. 
 
Sectoral merchandise trade developments 
Chart 7 shows estimated year-on-year growth in the dollar value world trade for major categories of manufactured goods. It illustrates the fact th at some products declined earlier and recovered 
sooner than others during the trade collapse of 2009 . In the case of the current trade slowdown, it 
may provide an indication of whether trade is st ill slowing or has already bottomed out and started 
to recover.  
Iron and steel trade appears to be a highly pro-cyclical and somewhat lagging indicator of global 
trade growth. It registered the biggest declines of any sector during both the 2009 trade collapse Chart 6: Trade weighted US dollar exchange rate against 
major currencies, Jan. 2010 -  Feb. 2013
Index, Jan.2010=100
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.107.0
93.5101.9
98.3100.7
9095100105110
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Nov‐10
Jan‐11
Mar‐11
May‐11
Jul‐11
Sep‐11
Nov‐11
Jan‐12
Mar‐12
May‐12
Jul‐12
Sep‐12
Nov‐12
Jan‐13 PRESS/688 
 Page 13 of 27 
 
 
  and the recent slump. Although it was down 11% ye ar-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012, this 
was less negative than the previous quarter, when it was down 13%.  
 Year-on-year growth in office and telecom equi pment was –1% in the second quarter and 0% in 
the third, but in the fourth it returned to positive territory with an increase of 6%. This sector led 
the recovery following the 2009 trade collapse, so it s return to growth is a positive sign for a 
revival of trade in the coming months. 
 
Most other sectors saw improvements in year-o n-year growth between the third and fourth 
quarters, which suggest that a recovery in trad e may be under way. Chemicals increased from –
6% to 0%, industrial machinery rose from –3% to  –2%, and clothing and textiles went from –8% 
to –1%. An important exception is automotive products, which tend to be a coincident indicator of trade cycles. This category was down 2% in both the third and fourth quarters, showing no 
improvement. 
 
 
 
Prospects for 2013 and 2014 
The outlook for world trade and output in 2013 and 2014 looks unsettled, as positive economic 
trends have also been accompanied by more worrisome developments.  
 
EU output fell in the fourth quarter of last year as the slowdown in Europe finally touched 
Germany. Monthly indicators of economic activi ty in January and February suggest that the Chart 7: Quarterly  world exports of manufactured  goods by product, 2008Q1‐2012Q4
Year‐on‐year % change in current $ values
Source: WTO Secretariat  estimates  based on mirror data for available reporters  in the Global Trade Atlas
database,  Global trade Information  Systems.‐60‐40‐200204060
2008Q1
2008Q22008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q32012Q4Iron and steel Chemicals
Office and telecom equipment Automotive  products
Industrial  machinery Textiles and clothingPRESS/688 
Page 14 of 27 
 
 
  German economy remained relatively resilient in the first quarter, but the downturn in the rest of 
the euro area appeared to be intensifying. Most forecasters expect European economies to remain 
weak in the first half of 2013 before gaining strength later in the year.   
Unemployment is falling gradually and private expenditure is picking up in the US, but automatic 
government spending cuts set to take effect in 2013 could weigh on growth later in the year. 
Political gridlock may be easing, which could allow more targeted and less sweeping measures to 
be agreed, with less risk to a promising recovery. The Federal Reserve has signalled that its most 
recent program of quantitative easing will not be withdrawn hastily, but as the economy picks up transitioning to a less accommodative policy stance could prove challenging. 
 
Japan’s new government has prioritized a sizeable fiscal stimulus package and a more accommodative monetary policy as a way to spur economic growth. The former may test the limits 
of fiscal policy given the size of the country’s pu blic debt — estimated by the IMF to exceed 200% 
of GDP — while the latter may invite charges of currency manipulation. Stimulus-oriented policies will probably provide a boost to Japanese growth and trade in 2013, but how much remains to be 
seen. 
 Although China’s exports may be hindered by the slowdown in Europe, increased shipments to the 
US should partly make up for this. Until recently the EU was China’s largest trading partner, but 
the drop in EU imports in 2012 left it in second place behind the US. China’s GDP growth is expected to remain strong compared to the rest of the world in 2013, which should provide 
support for imports from other countries. 
 In light of these developments, WTO economists are forecasting a small pickup in world trade 
volume growth to 3.3% in 2013 from 2.0% in  2012. Exports of developed economies should 
increase by 1.4% while those of developing economies (including the Commonwealth of Independent States) should rise 5.3%. On the import side, the WTO anticipates 1.4% growth in 
developed economics and 5.9% in developing economies plus CIS. (See Table 4.) 
 Figures for 2014 are provisional estimates based on strong assumptions about the medium-term 
trajectory of gross domestic product (GDP) and should be interpreted with care. World trade 
volume growth for that year is expected to impr ove to 5.0%. Exports of developed and developing 
economies should increase by 2.6% and 7.5%, respectively. On the import side, developed 
economies should advance by 3.2% while developing economies should rise 7.4%. 
 The current forecast could be derailed if certain downside risks materialize. These include revived 
financial market turbulence related to the euro crisis, commodity price spikes, geopolitical 
tensions, and rising protectionism.   
  PRESS/688 
 Page 15 of 27 
 
 
   
 
 
Trade could still surprise on the upside if Europe returns to growth more quickly than anticipated. 
However, the most likely result is very similar to  last year: a mild recession in the EU restraining 
exports and imports in both developed and developing economies. 
 The trade forecast assumes a 2.1% increase in world GDP for 2013, with developed economies 
growing 1.1% and the rest of the world growing 5.0%. The 2014 projection assumes world output 
growth of 2.7%, with developed economies adva ncing 1.9% and the rest of the world growing 
5.1%. The output figures above refer to real GD P at market exchange rates based on consensus 
estimates of economic forecasters.
2 
 These estimates of export growth are supported by  results from of the WTO Secretariat’s quarterly 
time series forecasting model, which predicts an increase of around 2.5% in imports of goods and 
services for OECD countries in 2013 (Chart 8).
3 Difference between the two approaches can be 
explained by the use of different weights in the two models (GDP weights vs. trade weights) and 
by the fact that the WTO’s definition of develo ped economies differs from the membership of the 
OECD.  
 
                                               
2 The IMF World Economic Outlook, the OECD Economic Outlook, the UN DESA World Economic 
Situation and Prospects and other national and private sources. 
3 Keck, Alexander, Raubold, Alexander and Truppi a, Alessandro (2009) “For ecasting international 
trade: A time series approach’, OECD Journal: Jo urnal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 
vol. 2: 157–176. The model has been  extended and further improved  since publication and also 
includes estimations for emerging economies, such as China. Table 4: World merchandise  trade and GDP, 2008‐2014 a
Annual % change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P
Volume of world merchandise  trade b‐12.5 13.9 5.2 2.0 3.3 5.0
Exports
Developed  economies ‐15.2 13.1 5.1 1.0 1.4 2.6
Developing  economies  and CIS ‐7.4 15.3 5.4 3.3 5.3 7.5
Imports
Developed  economies ‐14.3 10.7 3.1 ‐0.1 1.4 3.2
Developing  economies  and CIS ‐10.5 18.2 8.0 4.6 5.9 7.4
Real GDP at market exchange  rates ‐2.5 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.7
Developed  economies ‐3.8 2.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.9
Developing  economies  and CIS 2.1 7.3 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.1
a  Figures for 2012 and 2013 are projections.
b  Average of exports and imports.
Source: WTO Secretariat  for trade, concensus  estimates  of economic  forecasters  for GDP.PRESS/688 
Page 16 of 27 
 
 
   
 
 Chart 8: GDP and import demand for OECD countries,  2008Q1‐2012Q4 a
Annualized  % change over previous quarter
a: Figures for 2012 ar e projections.
Source: OECD for trade and GDP through 2011Q4.  Concens us  estimates  of forecating  agencies  for GDP
projections  and WTO Secretariat  for trade forecasts.‐10.0‐8.0‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.0
‐50.0‐40.0‐30.0‐20.0‐10.00.010.020.030.0
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q42009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q32009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q42011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q32011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q42013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q32013Q4GDP (right scale)
projected
Imports (left scale)
projected 
   PRESS/688  
 Page 17 of 27Map 1: Merchandise exports and imports in current US dollars by region, 2012a 
 
a Values and shares include intra-EU trade. 
Source: WTO Secretariat. 
 
N AMERICA
Exports 
up 4% 
$2.37 trillion 
13% of world total 
Imports 
up 3% 
$3.19 trillion 
18% of world total 
S‐C AMERICA
Exports 
up 0% 
$749 billion 
4% of world total 
Imports 
up 3% 
$753 billion 
4% of world total 
EUROPE
Exports 
down 4% 
$6.37 trillion 
36% of world total 
Imports 
down 6% 
$6.52 trillion 
36% of world total 
COMMONWEALTH  OF 
INDEPENDENT  STATES 
Exports 
up 2% 
$804 billion 
5% of world total 
Imports 
up 5% 
$568 billion 
3% of world total 
AFRICA
Exports 
up 5% 
$626 billion 
4% of world total 
Imports 
up 8% 
$604 billion 
3% of world total 
MIDDLE EAST
Exports 
up 3% 
$1.29 trillion 
7% of world total 
Imports 
up 6% 
$721 billion 
4% of world total 
ASIA
Exports 
up 2% 
$5.64 trillion 
32% of world total 
Imports 
up 4% 
$5.79 trillion 
32% of world total  
  PRESS/688 
Page 18 of 27 
Map 2: Exports and imports of commercial serv ices in current US dollars by region, 2012 
 
 
a Values and shares include intra-EU trade. 
Source: WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats. 
N AMERICA
Exports 
up 4% 
$709 billion 
16% of world total 
Imports 
up 2% 
$537 billion 
13% of world total 
S‐C AMERICA
Exports 
up 6% 
$136 billion 
3% of world total 
Imports 
up 9% 
$178 billion 
4% of world total 
EUROPE
Exports 
down 3% 
$2.02 trillion 
47% of world total 
Imports 
down 3% 
$1.68 trillion 
41% of world total 
COMMONWEALTH  OF 
INDEPENDENT  STATES 
Exports 
up 10% 
$105 billion 
2% of world total 
Imports 
up 17% 
$151 billion 
4% of world total 
AFRICA
Exports 
up 5% 
$90 billion 
2% of world total 
Imports 
up 3% 
$162 billion 
4% of world total 
MIDDLE EAST
Exports 
up 9% 
$125 billion 
3% of world total 
Imports 
up 2% 
$222 billion 
5% of world total 
ASIA
Exports 
up 6% 
$1.16 trillion 
27% of world total 
Imports 
up 8% 
$1.18 trillion 
29% of world total  PRESS/688 
 Page 19 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix  Table 1
World merchandise  trade by region and selected economies,  2012
$bn and %
Value Value
2012 2005 ‐12 2010 2011 2012 2012 2005 ‐12 2010 2011 2012
World 17850 8 22 20 0 18155 8 21 19 0
North America 2373 7 23 16 4 3192 5 23 15 3
United States 1547 8 21 16 5 2335 4 23 15 3
Canada  a 4 5 5 32 31 7 1 4 7 5 62 21 5 2
M e x i c o 3 7 1 83 01 7 6 3 8 0 82 81 6 5
South and Central America  b 749 11 25 27 0 753 14 30 25 3
Brazil 243 11 32 27 ‐5 233 17 43 24 ‐2
Other South and Central America  b 506 11 22 28 2 520 13 24 25 5
Europe 6373 5 12 18 ‐4 6519 5 13 17 ‐6
European  Union (27) 5792 5 12 18 ‐5 5927 5 13 17 ‐6
Germany 1407 5 12 17 ‐5 1167 6 14 19 ‐7
N e t h e r l a n d s 6 5 6 71 51 6 ‐2 5 9 1 71 71 6 ‐1
France 569 3 8 14 ‐5 674 4 9 18 ‐6
United Kingdom 468 3 17 21 ‐7 6 8 0 41 41 4 1
I t a l y 5 0 0 41 01 7 ‐4 4 8 6 31 71 5 ‐13
Commonwealth  of Independent  States (CIS) 804 13 31 34 2 568 15 25 30 5
Russian Federation   a 529 12 32 30 1 335 15 30 30 4
Africa 626 11 30 17 5 604 13 16 18 8
South A f r i c a 8 7 83 12 1 ‐11 123 10 27 29 1
Africa less South Africa 539 11 30 16 8 481 14 13 15 9
Oil exporters   c 370 11 34 15 12 179 14 10 10 8
Non oil exporters 169 11 22 20 ‐1 303 14 15 18 10
Middle East 1287 13 28 37 3 721 12 13 17 6
Asia 5640 11 31 18 2 5795 12 33 23 4
China 2049 15 31 20 8 1818 16 39 25 4
Japan 799 4 33 7 ‐3 8 8 6 82 62 3 4
India 293 17 37 34 ‐3 489 19 36 33 5
Newly industrialized  economies  (4)  d 1280 8 30 16 ‐1 1310 9 32 19 0
Memorandum
MERCOSUR   e 340 11 29 26 ‐4 325 16 43 25 ‐3
ASEAN  f 1254 10 29 18 1 1221 11 31 21 6
EU (27) extra‐trade 2166 7 17 21 0 2301 7 18 18 ‐4
Least developed  countries  (LDCs)  204 14 27 25 1 223 14 11 22 8
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.
b. Includes the Caribbean.   For composition  of groups see the Technical  Notes of WTO, International  Trade Statistics,  2012.
c. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon,  Chad, Congo, Equatorial  Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
d. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore  and Chinese Taipei.
e. Common  Market of the Southern  Cone: Argentina,  Brazil, Paraguay,  Uruguay.
f. Association  of Southeast  Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia,  Indonesia,  Laos, Malaysia,  Myanmar,  Philippines,  Singapore,  Thailand,  Viet Nam.
Source:  WTO Secretariat.Exports Imports
Annual percentage  change Annual  percentage  changePRESS/688 
Page 20 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix Table 2
$bn and %
Value Value
2012 2005 ‐12 2010 2011 2012 2012 2005 ‐12 2010 2011 2012
World  4345 8 10 11 2 4105 8 10 11 2
North A m e r i c a 7 0 9 7994 5 3 7 6882
United S t a t e s 6 1 4 8994 4 0 6 6573
South and Central America  a 136 10 13 13 6 178 14 23 18 9
Brazil 38 14 15 20 5 78 19 36 22 7
Europe 2024 7 4 12 ‐3 1680 6 3 10 ‐3
European  Union (27)  1819 6 4 12 ‐3 1553 5 2 10 ‐4
Germany 255 7 3 9 ‐2 285 4 3 11 ‐3
United Kingdom 278 5 4 10 ‐4 176 1 1 6 1
France 208 8 1 17 ‐7 171 7 4 12 ‐10
Netherlands 126 5 4 17 ‐7 115 5 ‐21 5 ‐5
Spain 140 6 1 14 ‐19 0 4 ‐18 ‐5
Commonwealth  of Independent  States (CIS 105 14 13 19 10 151 14 19 18 17
Russian Federation 58 13 8 20 10 102 15 21 23 16
U k r a i n e 1 9 1 12 41 4 1 1 3 91 0 5 2
Africa 90 7 12 0 5 162 12 11 12 3
Egypt 21 6 11 ‐19 11 16 7 2 1 19
South Africa 15 4 17 6 3 17 5 25 7 ‐11
Nigeria 2 6 49 ‐12‐4 2 7 2 32 11 31 8
Middle East 125 … 11 10 9 222 … 12 11 2
United Arab Emirates   b 12 … 16 9 … 50 … 12 18 …
Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 10 … 10 7 ‐94 9 … 8 8 ‐10
Asia 1159 11 22 12 6 1175 11 21 14 8
China  c 190 14 25 13 4 281 19 22 23 19
Japan 140 4 10 3 ‐2 174 4 6 6 5
India 148 16 34 11 8 125 15 46 6 1Singapore 133 13 20 15 3 117 11 22 18 3Korea, Republic of 109 12 19 9 16 105 9 19 3 7
Hong Kong, China 126 10 23 14 7 57 8 17 10 2
Australia 53 8 15 10 4 65 12 22 18 10
Memorandum  item
 Extra‐EU(27) trade 823 8 6 12 ‐1 639 6 3 10 ‐4
a  Includes the Caribbean.   For composition  of groups see Chapter IV Metadata  of WTO International  
Trade Statistics,  2012.
b  Secretariat  estimates.
c  Preliminary  estimates.
… indicates  unavailable  or non‐comparable  figures.
Note:  While provisional  full year data were available  in mid March for some 50 countries  accounting  for more than two thirds of
world commercial  services trade, estimates  for most other countries  are based on data for the first three quarters.
Source :  WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.World trade of commercial  services by region and selected country, 2012
Exports Imports
Annual percentage  change Annual  percentage  change PRESS/688 
 Page 21 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix  Table 3
Merchandise  trade: leading exporters  and importers,  2012
$bn and %
Rank Exporter Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importer Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 China 2049 11.2 8 1 United  States 2335 12.6 3
2U n i t e d  States 1547 8.4 5 2 China 1818 9.8 4
3 Germany 1407 7.7 ‐5 3 Germany 1167 6.3 ‐7
4 Japan 799 4.4 ‐3 4 Japan 886 4.8 4
5 Netherlands 656 3.6 ‐25 U n i t e d  Kingdom 680 3.7 1
6 France 569 3.1 ‐5 6 France 674 3.6 ‐6
7K o r e a ,  Republic  of 548 3.0 ‐1 7 Netherlands 591 3.2 ‐1
8 Russian  Federation 529 2.9 1 8 Hong  Kong, China 554 3.0 8
9 Italy 500 2.7 ‐4 ‐ retained  imports 140 0.8 6
10 Hong  Kong, China 493 2.7 8
‐ domestic  exports 22 0.1 33 9 Korea,  Republic  of 520 2.8 ‐1
‐ re‐exports 471 2.6 7 10 India 489 2.6 5
11 United  Kingdom 468 2.6 ‐7 11 Italy 486 2.6 ‐13
12 Canada 455 2.5 1 12 Canada   a 475 2.6 2
13 Belgium 446 2.4 ‐6 13 Belgium 435 2.3 ‐7
14 Singapore 408 2.2 0 14 Mexico 380 2.0 5
‐ domestic  exports 228 1.2 2 15 Singapore 380 2.0 4
‐ re‐exports 180 1.0 ‐3 ‐ retained  impor ts  b 199 1.1 11
15 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom  of  c 386 2.1 6
16 Mexico 371 2.0 6 16 Russian  Federation   a 335 1.8 4
17 Taipei,  Chinese 301 1.6 ‐2 17 Spain 332 1.8 ‐12
18 United  Arab Emirates   c 300 1.6 5 18 Taipei,  Chinese 270 1.5 ‐4
19 India 293 1.6 ‐3 19 Australia 261 1.4 7
20 Spain 292 1.6 ‐5 20 Thailand 248 1.3 8
21 Australia 257 1.4 ‐5 21 Turkey 237 1.3 ‐2
22 Brazil 243 1.3 ‐5 22 Brazil 233 1.3 ‐2
23 Thailand 230 1.3 3 23 United  Arab Emirates   c 220 1.2 7
24 Malaysia 227 1.2 0 24 Switzerland 198 1.1 ‐5
25 Switzerland 226 1.2 ‐4 25 Malaysia 197 1.1 5
26 Indonesia 188 1.0 ‐6 26 Poland 196 1.1 ‐7
27 Poland 183 1.0 ‐3 27 Indonesia 190 1.0 8
28 Sweden 172 0.9 ‐8 28 Austria 178 1.0 ‐7
29 Austria 166 0.9 ‐6 29 Sweden 162 0.9 ‐8
30 Norway 160 0.9 0 30 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom  of 144 0.8 9
Total of abov e  d 14870 81.2 ‐ Total of abov e  d 15270 82.3 ‐
World  d 18325 100.0 0 World   d 18565 100.0 0
a. Imports ar e va l ued f.o.b.
b. Singapore’s  reta ined  imports are defined as impor ts less re‐exports.
c. Secretariat  estimates.
d. Includes  significant  re‐exports or imports for re‐export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.PRESS/688 
Page 22 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix  Table 4
Merchandise  trade: leading exporters  and importers  (excluding  intra‐EU (27) trade), 2012
$bn and %
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1E x t r a‐EU(27) exports 2166 14.7 0 1 United  States 2335 15.6 3
2 China 2049 13.9 8 2 Extra ‐EU(27) imports 2301 15.4 ‐4
3U n i t e d  States 1547 10.5 5 3 China 1818 12.2 4
4 Japan 799 5.4 ‐34 J a p a n 8 8 6 5 . 9 4
5K o r e a ,  Republic of 548 3.7 ‐15 H o n g  Kong, China 554 3.7 8
6 Russian  Federation 529 3.6 1 ‐ retained imports 140 0.9 6
7H o n g Kong, China 493 3.4 8
‐ domestic  exports 22 0.2 33 6 Korea,  Republic of 520 3.5 ‐1
‐ re‐exports 471 3.2 7 7 India 489 3.3 5
8C a n a d a 4 5 5 3 . 1 1 8C a n a d a   a4 7 5 3 . 2 2
9 Singapore 408 2.8 0 9 Mexico 380 2.5 5
‐ domestic  exports 228 1.6 2 10 Singapore 380 2.5 4
‐ re‐exports 180 1.2 ‐3 ‐ retained imports  b1 9 9 1 . 3 1 1
10 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom of  c3 8 6 2 . 6 6
11 Mexico 371 2.5 6 11 Russian  Federation   a3 3 5 2 . 2 4
12 Taipei,  Chinese 301 2.0 ‐21 2 T a i p e i ,  Chinese 270 1.8 ‐4
13 United  Arab Emirates  c 300 2.0 5 13 Australia 261 1.7 7
14 India 293 2.0 ‐31 4 T h a i l a n d 2 4 8 1 . 7 8
15 Australia 257 1.7 ‐51 5 T u r k e y 2 3 7 1 . 6 ‐2
16 Brazil 243 1.7 ‐51 6 B r a z i l 2 3 3 1 . 6 ‐2
17 Thailand 230 1.6 3 17 United  Arab Emirates  c2 2 0 1 . 5 7
18 Malaysia 227 1.5 0 18 Switzerland 198 1.3 ‐5
19 Switzerland 226 1.5 ‐4 19 Malaysia 197 1.3 5
20 Indonesia 188 1.3 ‐62 0 I n d o n e s i a 1 9 0 1 . 3 8
21 Norway 160 1.1 0 21 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom of 144 1.0 9
22 Turkey 153 1.0 13 22 South  Africa  c1 2 3 0 . 8 1
23 Qatar   c1 2 9 0 . 9 1 2 2 3 V i e t  Nam 114 0.8 7
24 Kuwait   c1 2 1 0 . 8 1 7 2 4 N o r w a y 8 7 0 . 6 ‐4
25 Viet  Nam 115 0.8 18 25 Ukraine 85 0.6 2
26 Nigeria   c 114 0.8 0 26 Chile 79 0.5 6
27 Venezuela,  Bolivarian  Rep. of 97 0.7 5 27 Israel   c7 6 0 . 5 0
28 Iran  c9 6 0 . 6 ‐27 28 Egypt 70 0.5 19
29 Iraq  c 94 0.6 13 29 Argentina 69 0.5 ‐7
30 Kazakhstan 92 0.6 5 30 Philippines 65 0.4 3
Total of above  d 13185 89.7 ‐ Total of above  d 13440 89.9 ‐
World (excl. intra‐EU(27))  d 14700 100.0 2 World  (excl. intra‐EU(27))  d 14940 100.0 2
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.
b. Singapore’s  retained imports are defined as imports less re‐exports.
c. Secretariat  estimates.
d. Includes significant  re‐exports or imports for re‐export.
Source: WTO Secretariat. PRESS/688 
 Page 23 of 27 
 
 
   Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1U n i t e d  States 614 14.1 4 1 United  States 406 9.9 3
2U n i t e d  Kingdom 278 6.4 ‐4 2 Germany 285 6.9 ‐3
3 Germany 255 5.9 ‐23 C h i n a   a 281 6.8 19
4 France 208 4.8 ‐74 U n i t e d  Kingdom 176 4.3 1
5C h i n a   a 190 4.4 4 5 Japan 174 4.2 5
6 India 148 3.4 8 6 France 171 4.2 ‐10
7 Japan 140 3.2 ‐2 7 India 125 3.0 1
8 Spain 140 3.2 ‐1 8 Singapore 117 2.8 3
9 Singapore 133 3.1 3 9 Netherlands 115 2.8 ‐5
10 Netherlands 126 2.9 ‐7 10 Ireland 110 2.7 ‐5
11 Hong  Kong, China 126 2.9 7 11 Canada 105 2.6 1
12 Ireland 115 2.6 2 12 Korea,  Republic of 105 2.6 7
13 Korea,  Republic of 109 2.5 16 13 Italy 105 2.6 ‐8
14 Italy 104 2.4 ‐1 14 Russian  Federation 102 2.5 16
15 Belgium 94 2.2 0 15 Belgium 90 2.2 ‐1
16 Switzerland 88 2.0 ‐7 16 Spain 90 2.2 ‐5
17 Canada 78 1.8 ‐11 7 B r a z i l 7 8 1 . 9 7
18 Sweden 76 1.7 2 18 Australia 65 1.6 1019 Luxembourg 70 1.6 0 19 Denmark 57 1.4 ‐2
20 Denmark 65 1.5 ‐22 0 H o n g  Kong, China 57 1.4 2
2 1 A u s t r i a 6 11 . 4 1 2 1 S w e d e n 5 51 . 3 0
22 Russian  Federation 58 1.3 10 22 Thailand 53 1.3 1
23 Australia 53 1.2 4 23 United  Arab Emirates  b5 0 1 . 2 …
24 Norway 50 1.2 3 24 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom of 49 1.2 ‐10
25 Thailand 49 1.1 18 25 Norway 49 1.2 626 Taipei,  Chinese 49 1.1 7 26 Switzerland 44 1.1 ‐2
27 Macao,  C h i n a 4 51 . 0 1 4 2 7 A u s t r i a 4 31 . 1 3
28 Turkey 42 1.0 9 28 Taipei,  Chinese 42 1.0 2
29 Brazil 38 0.9 5 29 Malaysia 42 1.0 1030 Poland 38 0.9 1 30 Luxembourg 41 1.0 0
Total of above  3640 83.7 ‐ Total of above  3285 80.0 ‐
World  4345 100.0 2 World   4105 100.0 2
a  Preliminary estimates.
b  Secretariat estimate.… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source
: WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.Appendix  Table 5
Leading exporters  and importers  in world trade in commercial  services, 2012
$bn and %
Note:   Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. Annual percentage changes and ranki ngs are 
affected by continuity breaks in the series for a large number of economies, and by limitations in cross-country comparability.PRESS/688 
Page 24 of 27 
 
 
   Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1E x t r a ‐EU(27) exports 823 24.6 ‐11 E x t r a ‐EU(27) imports 639 20.0 ‐4
2U n i t e d  States 614 18.3 4 2 United  States 406 12.7 3
3 China   a 190 5.7 4 3 China   a 281 8.8 19
4I n d i a 1 4 8 4 . 4 8 4J a p a n 1 7 4 5 . 4 5
5 Japan 140 4.2 ‐2 5 India 125 3.9 1
6S i n g a p o r e 1 3 3 4 . 0 3 6S i n g a p o r e 1 1 7 3 . 7 37H o n g  Kong, China 126 3.8 7 7 Canada 105 3.3 1
8K o r e a ,  Republic of 109 3.3 16 8 Korea,  Republic of 105 3.3 7
9S w i t z e r l a n d 8 8 2 . 6 ‐79 R u s s i a n  Federation 102 3.2 16
10 Canada 78 2.3 ‐11 0 B r a z i l 7 82 . 4 7
11 Russian  Federation 58 1.7 10 11 Australia 65 2.0 10
12 Australia 53 1.6 4 12 Hong  Kong, China 57 1.8 2
13 Norway 50 1.5 3 13 Thailand 53 1.7 114 Thailand 49 1.5 18 14 United  Arab Emirates   b5 0 1 . 6 …
15 Taipei,  Chinese 49 1.5 7 15 Saudi  Arabia, Kingdom of 49 1.5 ‐10
16 Macao,  China 45 1.3 14 16 Norway 49 1.5 6
17 Turkey 42 1.3 9 17 Switzerland 44 1.4 ‐2
18 Brazil 38 1.1 5 18 Taipei,  Chinese 42 1.3 2
19 Malaysia 38 1.1 5 19 Malaysia 42 1.3 10
20 Israel 30 0.9 11 20 Indonesia 34 1.1 821 Lebanon   b 23 0.7 … 21 Nigeria 27 0.8 18
22 Indonesia 22 0.7 12 22 Mexico 25 0.8 0
23 Egypt 21 0.6 11 23 Angola   b2 3 0 . 7 …
24 Ukraine 19 0.6 1 24 Qatar 22 0.7 4125 Philippines 18 0.5 15 25 Israel 21 0.7 6
26 Mexico 16 0.5 5 26 Iran   b1 9 0 . 6 …
27 South  Africa 15 0.4 3 27 Turkey 19 0.6 ‐3
28 Argentina 14 0.4 2 28 Argentina 18 0.6 9
29 Morocco 13 0.4 ‐4 29 Venezuela,  Bolivarian  Rep. of 17 0.5 42
30 Chile 13 0.4 2 30 South  Africa 17 0.5 ‐11
Total of above  3075 91.7 ‐ Total of above  2825 88.4 ‐
World (excl. intra‐EU(27)) 3350 100.0 4 World  (excl. intra‐EU(27)) 3190 100.0 4
a  Preliminary estimates.
b  Secretariat estimate.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source :  WTO and UNCTAD Secretariats.Note:   Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. Annual percentage changes and ranki ngs are affected 
by continuity breaks in the series for a large number of economies, and by limitations in cross-country comparability.Appendix  Table 6
Leading exporters  and importers  in world trade in commercial  services 
$bn and %excluding  intra‐EU(27) trade, 2012 PRESS/688 
 Page 25 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix Chart 1
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2011-February 2013 
Year-on-year % change in current $ values
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.China Re p. KoreaUnited States Ja pan
Euro pean Union (extra trade ) France
German y United Kin gdom‐505101520
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐505101520253035
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐5051015202530
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐5051015202530
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐5051015202530
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐5051015202530
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐1001020304050
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐505101520253035
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
ImportsPRESS/688 
Page 26 of 27 
 
 
   Appendix Chart 1 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2011-February 2013 
Year-on-year % change in current $ values
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Brazil Russia
Singapore Chinese Tai pei
Malaysia ThailandIndia South Africa‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐1001020304050
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐100102030405060
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐15‐10‐50510152025
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐10‐50510152025
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐1001020304050
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports PRESS/688 
 Page 27 of 27 
 
 
   
END Appendix Chart 1 (continued)
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2011-February 2013 
Year-on-year % change in current $ values
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.Turke y IndonesiaItaly Spain
Greece
CanadaPortu gal
Austraila‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐40‐20020406080100
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐10010203040
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐20‐1001020304050
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐10‐5051015202530
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐15‐10‐50510152025303540
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports
‐30‐20‐100102030405060
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13Exports
Imports