PRESS/ 820 
 
12 April 2018  
(18-2199) Page: 1/22 
    
 
PRESS RELEASE  
E M B A R G O  
N O T  F O R  P U B L I C A T I O N ,  O R  D I S T R I B U T I O N  B Y  N E W S  A G E N C I E S  U N T I L  
1 2 : 0 0  G E N E V A  T I M E  1 2  A P R I L  2 0 1 8  
 
TRADE STATISTICS AND  OUTLOOK   
Strong trade growth  in 2018 rest s on policy choices  
World merchandise trade growth is expected to remain 
strong  in 2018 and 2019 after posting its largest 
increase in six years in 2017 , but continued  expansion 
depend s on robust global economic growth and 
governments pursuing appropriate mone tary, fiscal 
and especially trade policies , WTO economists said .   
 
The WTO anticipates merchandise trade volume 
growth of 4. 4% in 2018, as measured by the average 
of exports and imports, roughly matching the 4. 7% 
increase recorded for 2017. Growth is expected to  
moderate to 4.0% in 2019, below the average rate of 
4.8% since 1990 but still firmly above the post -crisis 
average of 3.0%.   However, there are signs that 
escalating trade tensions may already be affecting  
business confidence and investment decisions , which  
could compromise the current outlook .  
 
"The strong trade growth that we are seeing today will 
be vital  for continued economic growth and recovery 
and to support job creation. However this important 
progress could be quickly undermined if governments 
resort to restrictive trade policies, especially in a tit -
for-tat process that could lead to an unmanageable  
escalation. A cycle of retaliation is the last thing the 
world economy needs. The pressing trade problems 
confronting WTO members is best tackled through 
collective action. I urge governments to show restraint 
and settle their differences through dialogue  and 
serious engagement," said WTO Director -General 
Roberto Azevêdo.  
MAIN POINTS  
World merchandise trade volume is 
expected to grow 4. 4% in 2018,  
accompanied by GDP growth of 3.2% at 
market exchange rates.  
Faster trade expansion is being driven by 
stronger economic growth  across regions, 
led by increased investment and fiscal 
expansion.  
Trad e growth in 2018 is likely to fall 
within a range from 3.1% to 5.5% if 
current GDP forecasts come to pass, 
although a continued escalation of trade 
restrictive policies could lead to a 
significantly lower figure.  
Trade growth should moderate to 4.0% in 
2019 even as global GDP growth slows 
slightly to 3.1%.  
The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth  
should remain at 1.4 in 2018, down slightly 
from 1.5 in 2017.  
Risks are centred on trade and monetary 
policy,  where mis steps could undermine 
economic growth and confidence.  
An index of export orders has recently 
weakened , possibly signalling an effect of 
greater uncertainty brought about by 
heightened trade tensions.  PRESS/ 820 
 
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Trade volume growth in 2017, the strongest since 2011, was driven mainly  by cyclical factors, 
particularly increased  investment and consumption expenditure . Looking at the situation in value 
terms, growth rates in current US dollars in 2017 (10.7% for merchandise exports, 7.4% for 
commercial services exports) were even stronger, reflecting both increasing quantities and rising 
prices. Merchandise trade volume growth in 2017 may also have been inflated somewhat by the 
weakness of trade over the previous two years, which provided a lower base for the current 
expansion.   
 
Until recently, risks to the forecast appeared to be more balanced than at any time since th e 
financial crisis.  However, in light of recent trade policy developments they must now be 
considered to be tilted to the downside . Increased use of restrictive trade policy measures  and the 
uncertainty they bring to businesses and consumers  could produce  cycles of retaliation that would 
weigh heavily on global trade and output.  Faster monetary tightening by central banks could 
trigger fluctuations in exchange rates and capital flows that could be equally disrupt ive to  trade 
flows. Finally, worsening  geopolitical tensions could  be counted on to reduce trade flows, although 
the magnitude  of their impact is unpredictable . Technological change means that conflicts could 
increasingly take the form of cyber -attacks, which could impact services trade as much  as or more 
than goods trade.  
 
On the other hand, there is some upside potential if structural reforms and more expansionary 
fiscal policy cause economic growth and trade to accelerate  in the short run .  The fact that all 
regions are experiencing upswings in trade and output at the same time could also make recovery  
more self-sustaining and increase the likelihood of positive  outcomes.   
 
Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise trade, 2015Q1 -2018Q4  
Seasonally adjusted volume index, 2005=100  
 
Source: WTO Secret ariat estimates.  
 
In recognition of the high degree of uncertainty associated with any forecast under the 
circumstances, Chart 1 uses shaded bands to illustrate a range of possible trade outcomes in the 
forecast period.  Trade growth in 2018 is most likely  to fall within a range from 3.1% to 5.5%. 
However, it should be noted that the above estimates depend on current forecasts of GDP. Further 
PRESS/ 820 
 
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  escalation in trade restrictive policies or other shocks that negatively affect global economic 
activity could resul t in trade growth outside of this range .1   
 
The WTO's trade forecasts are predicated on consensus estimates of global GDP, which have been 
revised upwards strongly in recent months.  World real GDP at market exchange rates is projected 
to grow 3.2% in 201 8 (up from 2.8% last September) and 3.1% in 2019.  Brighter prospects 
reflect not only investment and employment gains but also improved business and consumer 
confidence as measured by OECD business cycle indicators , although these could be undermined 
by uncertainty going forward . The final figure of 3.0% for world GDP growth in 2017 was also 
stronger than the previous estimate (2.8% as of last September), which partly explains the fact 
that actual merchandise trade growth of 4. 7% for the year exceeded even  optimistic assessments 
(e.g. 3.6% in September, with a high end estimate of 3.9%).      
 
Despite the improved outlook, some structural factors that weighed on trade in recent years are 
still present. This includes the rebalancing of the Chinese economy aw ay from investment (which 
has very high  import content) and toward consumption (which has lower import content  compared 
to investment ), as well as the reduced pace of global trade liberalization in recent decades.  
China’s rebalancing might dampen imports slightly in the short -run but it should produce stronger, 
sustainable growth over the long term, which would support more trade.  On the other hand, the 
lack of further subst antive liberalization would  be expected to produce subdued trade growth in 
both the short and long -run.            
 
Historically, world merchandise trade volumes have grown around 1.5 times faster than world real 
GDP at market exchange rates. The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth (referred to as the 
"elasticity of trade with respect to income") rose above 2.0 in the 1990s, but fell back to 1.0 in the 
five years following the financial crisis (2011 -2016). Th is elasticity measure rebounded from 0. 8 in 
2016 to 1.5 in 2017, which is close  to the historical average.  Stronger trade growth relative to 
GDP growth is expected to continue at least into 2018 , barring major economic shocks  (Chart 2 ). 
 
Preliminary data suggest that trade is off to a strong start in 20 18.  The WTO’s most recent World 
Trade Outlook Indicator (February 2018) pointed to above -trend trade growth in the first quarter, 
while other indicators such as export orders and container shipping are also suggestive of an 
ongoing recovery.  Tighter labo ur markets and modest increases in inflation in major economies 
will leave less room for error on the part of policy makers, but absent any missteps trade growth 
should remain strong over the next two years.  
 
                                                
1 It should be noted that quarterly estimates do not match annual volumes and forecasts exactly but 
they tend to be of similar magnitude.  PRESS/ 820 
 
- 4 - 
 
  Chart 2: Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 
1981 -2018  
% change and ratio  
 
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, consensus estimates for GDP.  
Details on trade developments in 2017  
The acceleration of  world  merchandise trade volume growth to 4. 7% in 2017 from 1. 8% in 2016 
was broad based, driven by rising import  demand across regions but most notably  in Asia . The 
largest  gains were re corded  on the import side in developing econom ies, where trade growth 
surged to 7.2% in 2017  from 1.9% in 2016. Import  demand  also picked up in developed countries, 
albeit less dramatically, as  merchandise trade growth in volume terms increased  to 3.1% in 2017 
from 2. 0% in 2016. Meanwhile, merchandise export s grew 3.5% in developed countries and 5. 7% 
in develop ing countries  last year, up from 1. 1% and 2.3% respectively  in the previous year  
(Table  1).   
 
Although merchandise trade volume growth was stronger in  developing countries  for the whole of  
2017, exports and especially imports of developed countries strengthened  over the course of the 
year while trade growth in developing economies  was more stable . This is illustrated by Chart 3, 
which  shows seasonally -adjusted  quarterly  merchandise export and import  volumes  by level of 
development.  Year-on-year growth of imports  was considerably stronger in developed countries  in 
the second half of 2017 ( 4.3%) than in the first  half (2.3%), while growth eased  slightly in 
developing econom ies (6.0% in the second half , down from 7.2% the first  half).  Export volume 
growth  in developed countries also increased from 3.4% to 4.3% between the first half and second 
half, while growth  in developing countries picked up slightly from 5. 2% to 6. 4%. 
 
PRESS/ 820 
 
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  Chart 3 : World merchandise exports and imports by level of development, 2012Q1 -
2017Q4  
(Volume index, 2012Q1=100)  
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
The recovery of merchandise trade volumes in 2017 was  widely shared across regions  but this was 
especially  true on the export side , where North America, South and Central America and the 
Caribbean , Europe and Asia all recorded  stronger growth. Asia and North America saw steady 
year-on-year growth in imports throughout 2017, whereas  import growth accelerated over the 
course of the year in Europe ( 1.4% in the first half, 4.1% in the second half) and South and 
Central America and the Caribbean  (1.5% in the first half, 6.6% in the second half , see Chart 4 ).   
 
Asia had the fastest trade volume growth of any region in 2017 on both the export  side (6.7%) 
and the import  side (9.6%) following  two year s of tepid expansion  (Table 1) . North American 
exports and imports rebounded s trongly in 2017 with growth of 4.2% and 4. 0%, respectively, 
after stagnat ing in 2016.  South and Central America and the Caribbean's  import growth turned 
positive again in 2017 with an  increase of  4.0%, following  three years of steep declines .  
Meanwhile, European  trade flows continued to expand at a moder ate pace, with growth of 3. 5% 
for exports and 2. 5% for imports in 2017.  
 
"Other regions ," encompas sing Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent 
States , saw steady  export growth of 2.3% in volume terms due to the fact that demand for oil and 
other natural resources tends to be quite stable  in quantity terms . Meanwhile , imports of the 
comb ined regions increased  slightly  by 0.9%, partly  as a result of higher  primary commodit y 
prices, which raise export revenue  in resource exporting  countries and allow more imports  to be 
purchased . Energy prices more than doubled  since January 2016 , but even at nearly US$70 per 
barrel oil prices still remain below the US$100 level that prevailed before the middle of 2014.   
 
9095100105110115120125130
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3Exports
World Developed Developing9095100105110115120125130
2012Q1
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World Developed DevelopingPRESS/ 820 
 
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  Chart 4: Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2012Q1 -2017Q4  
Volume index, 2012Q1=100  
 
 
 
a  Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean  
b  Other regions comprise Africa, Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, 
including associate and former member States.  
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
Asia was responsible for much of the recovery of  world merchandise trade in 2017  on both the  
export and import  sides.  This is illustrated by Chart 5, which shows regional contributions to world 
trade volume growth.  On the export side, Asia contributed 2. 3 percentage points to global growth  
of 4.5% in the latest year , or 51% of the total increase .  Asia also added 2. 9 percentage points to 
world import growth of 4. 8%, or 60% of the overall increase.  North America made substantial 
positive contributions to export s and import s as well, after adding very little  to trade growth  in 
2016 a s internal and external demand faltered.  Europe added less to merchandise import growth 
in 2017 than it did in 2016, but South and Central America and the Caribbean  made  a positive 
contribution for the first time since 2013 as  Brazil exited its recession.  
 
9095100105110115120125130
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3Exports
North America South America  a Europe
Asia Other regions  b9095100105110115120125130
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3Imports
North America South America  a Europe
Asia Other regions  bPRESS/ 820 
 
- 7 - 
 
  Chart 5: Contributions to world trade volume growth by region, 2011 -2017  
Annual % change  
 
 
a  Other regions comprise Africa, Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, 
including associate and former member States.  
b  Refers to South and Cen tral America and the Caribbean  
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
No single factor can explain the revival of world trade in 2017 but several contributed  to it, 
including increased investment spending , which is highly correlated with trade, and higher 
commodity prices, which raise incomes in resource -based economies  and encourage  investment in 
the energy sector , e.g. shale oil in the United States .  Appendix Chart 1 , which shows GDP growth 
by expenditure component  in selected economies, illus trates recent trends. Investment made a 
negative contribution to GDP growth in the United States in 2016 and negligible contributions to 
growth i n Japan and the United Kingdom for the year, but all three saw investment rebound  to 
varying degrees in 2017.  Investment is important for trade because it is thought  to be the most 
import intensive component of GDP , followed by exports, private consumption and government 
spending .2 
 
The fluctuations in the United Kingdom  may have been  partly due to the uncertainty  introduced by 
the Brexit referendum, and the fact that this uncertainty  was partly alleviated  in 2017. However, 
the long -run impact of Brexit on trade and investment remains to be seen.  
 
Appendix Chart 1 also shows that China's economic rebalancing away f rom investment and toward 
consumption is continu ing, with investment accounting for roughly 32% of GDP growth in 2017, 
down from 55% in 2013.  This development may add some drag to world trade growth as China 
imports fewer capital goods, but the process ha s so far been  gradual and not  very disruptive  to 
global tr ade.  Less investment could also help reduce overcapacity in sensitive sectors such as 
steel and aluminium, thereby alleviating trade tensions.  
 
                                                
2 Auboin M. and Borino  F. (2017), " The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity: Testing 
the demand channel, improving global trade forecasts" , Voxeu.org, 12 June.  
Exports Imports
-10123456
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North America South America  b Europe
Asia Other regions  a World-10123456
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North America South America  b Europe
Asia Other regions  a WorldPRESS/ 820 
 
- 8 - 
 
  Chart 6: Prices of primary commodities, Jan. 2014 - Feb. 2018  
Indices, January 2014=100  
 
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Statistics.  
 
Dollar values of international trade flows are strongly influenced by exchange rates and commodity  
prices . Despite daily ups and downs, the n ominal effective exchange rate of the US dollar  against a 
broad basket of currencies was basically unchanged in 2017 , while prices for energy , food, raw 
materials and metals rose between 7% and 24% . This partly explains why merchandise trade 
growth was str onger in value terms than in volume terms for the year.  The dollar value of world 
merchandise exports was up 11% in 2017 to US$17.20 trillion.  World commercial services exports  
increased by  7% to US$5.25 trillion in the same period.    
 
Appendix Chart 2 shows year -on-year growth in monthly merchandise exports and imports of 
selected major traders through February 2018. Trade values have been growing at stable rates  in 
most countries  since 2017.  China and the European Union (28) show an uptick in growth i n the 
early months of 2018 while India and Korea appear to be losing momentum. However, these 
figures should be used with caution as they may be strongly influenced by fluctuations in prices 
and exchange rates.  
 
Appendix Tables 1, 3 and 4 provide detailed breakdowns of annual merchandise trade in current 
US dollar terms by region and selected economies.  Resource exporting regions such as Africa and 
the Middle East recorded stronger export growth than import growth, while industrialized regions 
such as Nort h America, Europe and Asia had import growth that was as strong  as or stronger than 
export growth. There were few major changes in rankings of merchandise exporters and importers  
with some exceptions .  Counting individual EU members separately, Korea jumpe d from the 8th 
position to 6th on the export side while the United Arab Emirates rose from 19th to 15th place, the 
latter reflecting higher petroleum prices .  Meanwhile, Japan overtook the United Kingdom as the 
world's 4th largest merchandise importer whil e Canada fell from 9th to 12th place in import 
rankings.  China remained the largest exporter and the United States remained the largest 
importer  regardless of whether the European Union was treated as 28 separate countries or as a 
single trader, excluding  intra-EU trade.  
PRESS/ 820 
 
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Chart 7: Growth in the value of commercial services exports by category, 2014 -17 
% change in US$ values  
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
World commercial service s trade  recorded a strong expansion  in 2017 following  two years of weak -
to-negative growth .  This is illustrated by Chart 7, which shows growth in the dollar value of 
commercial services exports since 2014 by major services categories.  Total commercial services 
exports  increased by  more than  7% in the latest period, with  transpo rt services growing faster 
than the world average at 8% . The weakest category of  services exports was goods related 
services, which still posted  a 5% increase . 
 
Detailed breakdowns of commercial services trade by region and country are shown in Appendix 
Tables 2, 5 and 6. There were no changes in rank  among the top 5 exporters of  commercial 
services  when  EU member countries are counted separately, whereas the United Kingdom rose to 
5th place among importers from 6th previously .  There were no changes in ran k on either the 
export or import side with the EU treated as a single entity and intra -EU trade excluded.  T he 
United Arab Emirates placed much higher in the global export rankings (12th in 2017, excluding 
intra-EU trade ) than in previous press releases, b ut this was due to data revisions rather than 
increased exports .  UAE imports were also considerably larger.  As a result, ranks of countries in 
commercial services trade are not fully comparable to previous years.  
Outlook for trade in 2018 and 2019  
Some leading and coincident indicators of merchandise trade continued to point in a generally 
positive direction in the first quarter of 2018 while others have taken a negative turn. An index of 
container port throughput was close to its highest level ever  recorded in February (Chart 8), 
suggesting strong trade growth.  However, a measure of global export orders derived from 
purchasing managers' indices dipped in March, falling to 51.8, its lowest  level since December 
2017. A value  above 50 still indicates expansion, but the recent weakening could be attributed to 
rising anti-trade rhetoric  (Chart 9) . 
 
PRESS/ 820 
 
- 10 - 
 
  Chart 8: RWI/ISL container throughput index, January 2012 - February 2018  
Indices, 2010=100  
 
Source:  Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Institute of Shipping Economics and 
Logistics.  
 
 
Balanced against these  broadly  positive signs is a rising tide of anti -trade sentiment and the 
increased willingness of governments to employ restrictive trade measures . Recent measures have 
been applied to widely traded goods supplied by a large number of countries, with counter actions 
promised if these go into effect. An escalating cycle of retaliation may yet be avoided if 
negotiations manage to diffuse tensions, but this is not guaranteed. As always, the  WTO stands 
ready to help members reach mutually beneficial outcomes . 
 
PRESS/ 820 
 
- 11 - 
 
  Chart 9: Global PMI new expo rt orders index, Jan. 2010 - Mar. 2018  
Index, base=50  
 
Note: Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction.  
Source: IHS Markit.  
 
Another major risk is an unanticipated hike in inflation in one or more countries, which could cause 
monetary authorities to rai se interest rates precipitously and  cause economic growth to slow , with 
negative consequences for trade.  The United States Federal Reserve is already in the process of 
raising interest rates closer to historical norms  while the European Central Bank is moving closer 
to phasing out its  own stimulus  measures. Economic forecasters  generally expect monetary 
author ities to manage these challenges successfully, but with less room to manoeuvre some 
financial volatility could come to the fore if conditions change .  
 
The increased level of policy uncertainty is illustrated by Chart 10, which shows an index based on 
the frequency of phrases linked to economic uncertainty in press accounts.  
 
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  Chart 10: Global economic policy uncertainty, Jan. 2005 - Mar. 2018  
Index, mean of 1997 -2015=100  
 
 
 
Source: PolicyUncertainty.com  
 
Assuming current forecasts for GDP growth come to p ass, the WTO expect s world merchandise 
trade volumes to increase by 4. 4% in 2018, with stronger growth in developing economies in both 
exports ( 5.4%) and imports (4. 8%).  Developed countries should also see fairly strong growth on 
both the export side ( 3.8%) and the import side (4.1%).  In 2019 global trade growth is projected 
to moderate to 4.0%, with developing economies still outpacing developed countries in both 
exports ( 5.1% compared to 3.1%) and imports (4. 4% compared to 3.3%)  (Table 1).   However, 
economic activity would also be expected to take a hit from escalating trade restrictions, which 
could result in more negative scenarios being realized.  
 
 
 
  
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Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2014 -2019  a  
Annual % change  
 
 
 
a  Figures for 2018 and 2019 are projections.  
b  Average of exports and imports.  
c  Includes the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including associate and former 
member States.  
d  Other regions comprise Africa, Middle East and Commonwealth of Indepe ndent States (CIS).  
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, consensus estimates for GDP.   
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P
Volume of world merchandise trade  b 2.7 2.5 1.8 4.7 4.4 4.0
Exports
Developed economies 2.1 2.3 1.1 3.5 3.8 3.1
Developing economies  c 2.7 2.4 2.3 5.7 5.4 5.1
North America 4.6 0.8 0.6 4.2 4.5 4.5
South and Central America and the Caribbean -2.1 1.8 1.9 2.9 2.8 2.6
Europe 1.6 2.9 1.1 3.5 3.6 2.9
Asia 4.5 1.5 2.3 6.7 5.7 5.0
Other regions  d -1.0 5.5 2.6 2.3 4.7 4.4
Imports
Developed economies 3.4 4.3 2.0 3.1 4.1 3.3
Developing economies  c 2.4 0.6 1.9 7.2 4.8 4.4
North America 4.3 5.4 0.1 4.0 5.7 5.0
South and Central America and the Caribbean -2.7 -6.4 -6.8 4.0 3.9 5.7
Europe 3.0 3.7 3.1 2.5 3.5 2.8
Asia 3.7 4.0 3.5 9.6 5.9 4.7
Other regions  d 0.5 -5.6 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.8
Real GDP at market exchange rates 2.7 2.7 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.1
Developed economies 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.2
Developing economies  c 4.3 3.7 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.6
North America 2.6 2.7 1.5 2.4 2.8 2.7
South and Central America and the Caribbean 0.9 -0.9 -2.1 1.0 2.3 2.8
Europe 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.1
Asia 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.4
Other regions  d 2.5 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.9PRESS/ 820 
 
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Appendix Tables and Charts  PRESS/ 820 
 
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  Appendix Chart 1 : Contributions to GDP growth of selected economies, 2012 -17 
% change and percentage points  
 
 
Sources: OECD Quarterly National Accounts for all countries except China, which was sourced from UN National Accounts Statistics
through 2016 and the Economist Intelligence Unit for 2017.United KingdomUnited States of America Euro Area
China Japan
Republic of Korea-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Private consumption Government expenditure
Gross investment External balance
Statistical difference GDP-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Private consumption Government expenditure
Gross investment External balance
Statistical difference GDP-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017PRESS/ 820 
 
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  Appendix Chart 2 : Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 
2016 -February 2018  
Year-on-year percentage change in current dollar values  
 
 
a  January and February averaged to minimize distortions due to lunar new  year.
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.India Russian FederationUnited States of America European Union (extra-trade)
Japan Republic of Korea
Brazil China  a-15-10-5051015202530
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Exports
Imports
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Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Exports
Imports
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Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Exports
Imports
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Imports
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Imports
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Appendix Table 1: World merchandise trade by region and selected economies, 2017  
$bn and %               
 
 
 
 
Value Value
2017 2010-17 2015 2016 2017 2017 2010-17 2015 2016 2017
World 17198 2.1 -13.2 -3.0 10.7 17572 2.1 -12.5 -2.9 10.7
North America 2377 2.8 -8.0 -3.4 7.3 3285 2.9 -4.5 -2.8 7.3
United States of America 1547 2.8 -7.3 -3.4 6.6 2409 2.9 -4.0 -2.8 7.1
Canada 421 1.2 -13.9 -4.8 7.8 442 1.3 -9.6 -3.7 7.0
Mexico 409 4.6 -4.1 -1.7 9.5 432 4.9 -1.5 -1.9 8.7
South and Central America and the 
Caribbean 583 -0.2 -21.0 -4.9 13.0 579 -0.2 -16.3 -14.2 7.8
Brazil 218 1.1 -15.1 -3.1 17.5 157 -2.8 -25.2 -19.8 9.7
Other South and Central America and the 
Caribbean 365 -1.0 -23.9 -5.8 10.5 421 1.0 -12.0 -11.9 7.0
Europe 6501 2.0 -12.5 -0.2 9.3 6521 1.4 -13.2 0.4 9.9
European Union (28) 5904 1.9 -12.5 -0.2 9.7 5878 1.2 -13.3 0.4 10.0
Germany 1448 2.0 -11.2 0.6 8.5 1167 1.5 -12.9 0.4 10.5
Netherlands 652 1.8 -15.2 0.1 14.1 574 1.5 -13.1 -1.4 13.7
France 535 0.3 -12.9 -0.9 6.7 625 0.3 -15.5 -0.2 9.2
United Kingdom 445 1.0 -8.9 -11.0 8.6 644 1.2 -9.3 1.6 1.2
Italy 506 1.8 -13.7 1.0 9.6 453 -1.0 -13.3 -1.0 11.2
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 
including associate and former member 
States 518 -1.8 -32.3 -16.5 24.4 402 -0.5 -32.4 -2.5 20.8
Russian Federation  a 353 -1.8 -31.3 -17.4 25.3 238 -0.6 -37.3 -0.7 24.1
Africa 417 -3.2 -29.3 -9.6 18.3 534 1.6 -13.9 -10.7 7.8
South Africa  b 89 -0.4 -11.7 -7.6 18.4 101 0.7 -14.2 -12.5 10.6
Africa less South Africa 328 -3.8 -32.8 -10.1 18.2 432 1.8 -13.8 -10.3 7.1
Oil exporters  c 154 -8.5 -44.1 -23.2 29.0 144 -0.5 -19.2 -17.9 6.4
Non oil exporters 173 2.8 -15.4 3.3 10.1 289 3.1 -10.4 -6.0 7.5
Middle East 961 0.8 -30.3 -7.0 18.0 712 2.9 -7.4 -4.5 1.1
Asia 5842 3.2 -7.9 -3.4 10.7 5541 2.9 -14.4 -4.4 15.3
China 2263 5.3 -2.9 -7.7 7.9 1842 4.0 -14.3 -5.5 16.0
Japan 698 -1.4 -9.5 3.2 8.3 672 -0.5 -20.2 -6.2 10.6
India 298 4.0 -17.1 -1.2 13.0 447 3.6 -15.1 -8.1 23.8
Newly industrialized economies (4)  d 1283 2.1 -11.1 -2.8 12.6 1203 1.3 -16.6 -4.2 13.7
Memorandum
EU (28) extra-trade 2122 2.4 -12.2 -2.8 9.9 2097 0.5 -14.6 -1.3 10.6
Least developed countries (LDCs) 164 1.1 -22.1 -0.8 13.5 247 6.0 -7.6 -6.0 11.6
a  Imports are valued f.o.b.
b  Secretariat estimates.
c  Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
d  Hong Kong, China; Korea, Republic of; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
Source: WTO and UNCTAD.Exports Imports
Annual percentage change Annual percentage changePRESS/ 820 
 
- 18 - 
 
  Appendix Table 2: World commercial services trade by region and selected economies, 
2017  
$bn and %  
 
 
 
 
 
Value Value
2017 2010-2017 2015 2016 2017 2017 2010-2017 2015 2016 2017
World 5252 4.5 -5.0 0.7 7.4 5072 4.4 -5.4 0.9 6.5
North America 876 4.7 0.6 0.5 4.2 659 4.0 0.4 2.0 6.9
United States of America 762 4.9 1.5 0.2 3.8 516 4.6 3.0 2.8 6.8
South and Central America and the 
Caribbean 155 4.2 -4.1 1.0 6.8 180 3.3 -11.5 -6.6 8.5
Brazil 34 2.0 -15.5 -1.3 3.4 66 2.0 -19.8 -10.8 7.9
Europe 2499 3.9 -8.4 0.5 8.5 2139 3.6 -6.2 2.0 5.9
European Union (28) 2226 4.1 -8.5 1.6 8.5 1915 3.5 -7.1 3.4 5.4
Germany 296 4.1 -8.3 3.2 7.0 319 2.9 -11.5 3.9 5.2
United Kingdom 354 4.1 -4.4 -2.2 4.9 218 2.9 -1.2 -2.0 4.2
France 249 3.1 -12.1 -2.1 5.5 244 4.3 -8.0 1.7 3.4
Netherlands 216 3.7 -5.2 -6.0 15.6 211 3.6 4.5 -10.8 14.7
Ireland 182 10.3 0.2 9.0 19.6 196 8.6 14.8 19.5 -3.4
Asia 1321 5.2 -2.7 1.3 7.1 1514 6.3 -2.7 2.3 5.5
China  a 226 … -0.2 -4.3 8.7 464 … 0.5 3.7 3.3
Japan 180 4.5 -0.6 6.6 6.7 189 2.1 -7.3 3.4 3.5
Singapore 165 7.3 -0.4 1.8 4.3 171 7.8 -0.9 -2.6 5.2
India  b 179 6.3 -0.6 3.5 11.0 150 4.0 -3.7 8.3 13.1
Korea, Republic of 86 0.7 -12.9 -2.8 -8.0 120 3.2 -3.0 0.0 8.1
Hong Kong, China 104 3.7 -2.2 -5.3 5.3 77 1.3 0.1 0.6 3.7
Australia 65 5.0 -6.9 5.7 13.5 66 3.9 -10.5 -2.1 8.5
Other regions 401 5.3 -3.6 0.5 9.8 580 4.0 -12.5 -5.1 10.3
Russian Federation 58 2.5 -21.5 -2.3 15.9 87 2.4 -26.8 -16.3 18.8
Egypt 19 -2.8 -10.7 -22.6 38.2 16 3.3 -0.8 -2.9 1.3
South Africa 15 -0.4 -10.9 -4.7 9.3 16 -2.9 -9.1 -3.7 7.5
Morocco 15 1.1 -10.8 4.1 5.4 8 5.8 -11.6 5.3 14.3
United Arab Emirates  c 70 … 4.2 8.0 7.5 84 … -3.5 2.5 1.9
Israel 44 8.5 2.8 8.6 11.1 29 6.5 0.8 6.1 11.9
Memorandum
Extra-EU(28) trade 979 4.3 -8.4 0.9 7.9 793 3.6 -4.7 3.7 3.3
Least developed countries (LDCs) 34 7.1 -4.3 -4.2 6.2 69 3.4 -15.5 -8.5 6.3
b  Imports adjusted to f.o.b. valuation.
c  Preliminary annual estimates. Quarterly data not available.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the 
Secretariat. More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.Exports Imports
Annual % change Annual % change
a  China revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were revised downward starting in 
2014 on both the credit and the debit side.PRESS/ 820 
 
- 19 - 
 
   
Appendix Table 3: Leading merchandise exporters and importers, 2017  
$bn and %  
 
 
 
 
 
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual % 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual % 
change
1 China  2263 12.8 7.9 1 United States of America  2409 13.4 7.1
2 United States of America  1547 8.7 6.6 2 China  1842 10.2 16.0
3 Germany  1448 8.2 8.5 3 Germany  1167 6.5 10.5
4 Japan  698 3.9 8.3 4 Japan  672 3.7 10.6
5 Netherlands  652 3.7 14.1 5 United Kingdom  644 3.6 1.2
6 Korea, Republic of  574 3.2 15.8 6 France  625 3.5 9.2
7 Hong Kong, China  550 3.1 6.5 7 Hong Kong, China  590 3.3 7.8
Domestic exports 18 ... -27.9 Retained imports  a 138 ... 6.2
Re-exports 532 ... 8.3  
8 France  535 3.0 6.7 8 Netherlands  574 3.2 13.7
9 Italy  506 2.9 9.6 9 Korea, Republic of  478 2.7 17.8
10 United Kingdom  445 2.5 8.6 10 Italy  453 2.5 11.2
11 Belgium  430 2.4 7.9 11 India  447 2.5 23.8
12 Canada  421 2.4 7.8 12 Canada  442 2.5 7.0
13 Mexico  409 2.3 9.5 13 Mexico  432 2.4 8.7
14 Singapore  373 2.1 10.4 14 Belgium  403 2.2 8.2
Domestic exports 188 ... 15.9  
Re-exports 185 ... 5.4  
15 United Arab Emirates   a 360 2.0 20.4 15 Spain  351 1.9 12.7
16 Russian Federation  353 2.0 25.3 16 Singapore  328 1.8 12.3
 Retained imports   c 142 ... 22.7
17 Spain  321 1.8 10.5 17 Switzerland   b  269 1.5 -0.5
18 Chinese Taipei  317 1.8 13.2 18 United Arab Emirates   a 268 1.5 -1.1
19 Switzerland   b 300 1.7 -1.1 19 Chinese Taipei  259 1.4 12.5
20 India  298 1.7 13.0 20 Russian Federation   d 238 1.3 24.1
21 Thailand  237 1.3 9.9 21 Turkey  234 1.3 17.7
22 Poland  231 1.3 14.0 22 Poland  230 1.3 16.8
23 Australia  231 1.3 19.9 23 Australia   a 229 1.3 16.6
24 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of   a 218 1.2 18.8 24 Thailand  223 1.2 14.7
25 Malaysia  218 1.2 14.9 25 Viet Nam  212 1.2 21.0
26 Brazil  218 1.2 17.5 26 Malaysia  195 1.1 15.9
27 Viet Nam  214 1.2 21.4 27 Austria  176 1.0 11.5
28 Czech Republic  180 1.0 10.7 28 Czech Republic  162 0.9 13.2
29 Indonesia  169 1.0 16.5 29 Brazil  157 0.9 9.7
30 Austria  168 0.9 10.5 30 Indonesia  157 0.9 15.7
Total of above  e 14884 83.9 - Total of above  e 14866 82.5 -
World  e 17730 100.0 10.6 World  e 18024 100.0 10.7
a  Secretariat estimates.
b  Includes gold. 
c  Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d  Imports are valued f.o.b.
e  Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO and UNCTAD.PRESS/ 820 
 
- 20 - 
 
  Appendix Table 4: Leading merchandise exporters and importers excluding intra -EU (28) 
trade, 2017  
$bn and %  
 
 
 
 
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual % 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual % 
change
1 China  2263 16.2 7.9 1 United States of America  2409 16.9 7.1
2 Extra-EU(28) exports 2122 15.2 9.9 2 Extra-EU(28) imports 2097 14.7 10.6
3 United States of America  1547 11.1 6.6 3 China  1842 12.9 16.0
4 Japan  698 5.0 8.3 4 Japan  672 4.7 10.6
5 Korea, Republic of  574 4.1 15.8 5 Hong Kong, China  590 4.1 7.8
 Retained imports  a 138 ... 6.2
6 Hong Kong, China  550 3.9 6.5 6 Korea, Republic of  478 3.4 17.8
Domestic exports 18 ... -27.9  
Re-exports 532 ... 8.3  
7 Canada  421 3.0 7.8 7 India  447 3.1 23.8
8 Mexico  409 2.9 9.5 8 Canada  442 3.1 7.0
9 Singapore  373 2.7 10.4 9 Mexico  432 3.0 8.7
Domestic exports 188 ... 15.9  
Re-exports 185 ... 5.4  
10 United Arab Emirates  a 360 2.6 20.4 10 Singapore  328 2.3 12.3
 Retained imports  c 142 ... 22.7
11 Russian Federation  353 2.5 25.3 11 Switzerland  b  269 1.9 -0.5
12 Chinese Taipei  317 2.3 13.2 12 United Arab Emirates  a 268 1.9 -1.1
13 Switzerland  b 300 2.1 -1.1 13 Chinese Taipei  259 1.8 12.5
14 India  298 2.1 13.0 14 Russian Federation  d 238 1.7 24.1
15 Thailand  237 1.7 9.9 15 Turkey  234 1.6 17.7
16 Australia  231 1.7 19.9 16 Australia  a 229 1.6 16.6
17 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  a 218 1.6 18.8 17 Thailand  223 1.6 14.7
18 Malaysia  218 1.6 14.9 18 Viet Nam  212 1.5 21.0
19 Brazil  218 1.6 17.5 19 Malaysia  195 1.4 15.9
20 Viet Nam  214 1.5 21.4 20 Brazil  157 1.1 9.7
21 Indonesia  169 1.2 16.5 21 Indonesia  157 1.1 15.7
22 Turkey  157 1.1 10.2 22 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  a 131 0.9 -6.7
23 Norway  102 0.7 14.0 23 South Africa  a 101 0.7 10.6
24 Iran  a 92 0.7 26.0 24 Philippines  98 0.7 10.1
25 South Africa  89 0.6 18.4 25 Norway  83 0.6 13.9
26 Chile  68 0.5 12.7 26 Israel 72 0.5 4.4
27 Qatar  a 67 0.5 17.5 27 Argentina  67 0.5 19.7
28 Philippines  63 0.5 10.2 28 Chile  65 0.5 10.8
29 Israel 61 0.4 1.1 29 Egypt  62 0.4 10.5
30 Argentina  58 0.4 0.9 30 Pakistan  58 0.4 23.3
Total of above  e 12849 92.1 - Total of above  e 12914 90.7 -
World (excl. Intra-EU(28))  e 13949 100.0 10.9 World (excl. Intra-EU(28))  e 14243 100.0 10.9
a  Secretariat estimates.
b  Includes gold. 
c  Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d  Imports are valued f.o.b.
e  Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO and UNCTAD.PRESS/ 820 
 
- 21 - 
 
  Appendix Table 5: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2017  
$bn and %  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 United States of America 762 14.5 3.8 1 United States of America 516 10.2 6.8
2 United Kingdom 354 6.7 4.9 2 China  a 464 9.2 3.3
3 Germany 296 5.6 7.0 3 Germany 319 6.3 5.2
4 France 249 4.7 5.5 4 France 244 4.8 3.4
5 China  a 226 4.3 8.7 5 United Kingdom 218 4.3 4.2
6 Netherlands 216 4.1 15.6 6 Netherlands 211 4.2 14.7
7 Ireland 182 3.5 19.6 7 Ireland 196 3.9 -3.4
8 Japan 180 3.4 6.7 8 Japan 189 3.7 3.5
9 India b 179 3.4 11.0 9 Singapore 171 3.4 5.2
10 Singapore 165 3.1 4.3 10 India  b 150 3.0 13.1
11 Spain 137 2.6 8.0 11 Korea, Republic of 120 2.4 8.1
12 Switzerland 122 2.3 4.0 12 Belgium 116 2.3 7.3
13 Belgium 113 2.2 1.8 13 Italy 111 2.2 8.8
14 Italy 110 2.1 10.4 14 Canada 105 2.1 6.5
15 Hong Kong, China 104 2.0 5.3 15 Switzerland 104 2.1 4.9
16 Luxembourg 102 1.9 6.5 16 Russian Federation 87 1.7 18.8
17 Korea, Republic of 86 1.6 -8.0 17 United Arab Emirates  c 84 1.7 1.9
18 Canada 86 1.6 5.8 18 Hong Kong, China 77 1.5 3.7
19 Thailand 75 1.4 11.7 19 Luxembourg 75 1.5 4.5
20 Sweden 73 1.4 2.4 20 Spain 74 1.5 6.2
21 United Arab Emirates  c 70 1.3 7.5 21 Sweden 68 1.3 11.5
22 Australia 65 1.2 13.5 22 Australia 66 1.3 8.5
23 Denmark 64 1.2 7.0 23 Brazil 66 1.3 7.9
24 Austria 64 1.2 5.0 24 Denmark 62 1.2 6.0
25 Russian Federation 58 1.1 15.9 25 Austria 53 1.1 9.3
26 Poland 57 1.1 14.8 26 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 53 1.0 5.6
27 Chinese Taipei 45 0.9 9.0 27 Chinese Taipei 53 1.0 3.4
28 Israel 44 0.8 11.1 28 Norway 49 1.0 1.7
29 Turkey 44 0.8 17.4 29 Thailand 46 0.9 5.5
30 Macao, China  d 38 0.7 16.2 30 Malaysia 42 0.8 5.2
Total of above 4365 83.1 - Total of above 4189 82.6 -
World 5252 100.0 7.4 World 5072 100.0 6.5
b  Imports adjusted to f.o.b valuation.
c  Preliminary annual estimates. Quarterly data not available.
d  Follows BPM5 services classification.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been 
estimated by the Secretariat. 
More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.a  China revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were revised 
downward starting in 2014 on both the credit and the debit side.PRESS/ 820 
 
- 22 - 
 
  Appendix Table 6: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding 
intra -EU(28) trade, 2017  
$bn and %  
 
 
 
END 
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 Extra-EU(28) exports 979 24.4 7.9 1 Extra-EU(28) imports 793 20.1 3.3
2 United States of America 762 19.0 3.8 2 United States of America 516 13.1 6.8
3 China  a 226 5.7 8.7 3 China  a 464 11.7 3.3
4 Japan 180 4.5 6.7 4 Japan 189 4.8 3.5
5 India 179 4.5 11.0 5 Singapore 171 4.3 5.2
6 Singapore 165 4.1 4.3 6 India  b 150 3.8 13.1
7 Switzerland 122 3.0 4.0 7 Korea, Republic of 120 3.0 8.1
8 Hong Kong, China 104 2.6 5.3 8 Canada 105 2.7 6.5
9 Korea, Republic of 86 2.2 -8.0 9 Switzerland 104 2.6 4.9
10 Canada 86 2.1 5.8 10 Russian Federation 87 2.2 18.8
11 Thailand 75 1.9 11.7 11 United Arab Emirates  c 84 2.1 1.9
12 United Arab Emirates  c 70 1.7 7.5 12 Hong Kong, China 77 2.0 3.7
13 Australia 65 1.6 13.5 13 Australia 66 1.7 8.5
14 Russian Federation 58 1.4 15.9 14 Brazil 66 1.7 7.9
15 Chinese Taipei 45 1.1 9.0 15 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 53 1.3 5.6
16 Israel 44 1.1 11.1 16 Chinese Taipei 53 1.3 3.4
17 Turkey 44 1.1 17.4 17 Norway 49 1.2 1.7
18 Macao, China  d 38 1.0 16.2 18 Thailand 46 1.2 5.5
19 Norway 38 0.9 0.6 19 Malaysia 42 1.1 5.2
20 Malaysia 37 0.9 4.1 20 Mexico 37 0.9 9.9
21 Philippines 36 0.9 14.2 21 Indonesia 32 0.8 6.8
22 Brazil 34 0.8 3.4 22 Qatar 30 0.8 0.4
23 Mexico 27 0.7 10.1 23 Israel 29 0.7 11.9
24 Indonesia 24 0.6 5.7 24 Kuwait, the State of 28 0.7 8.0
25 Egypt 19 0.5 38.2 25 Philippines 26 0.7 9.1
26 Qatar 17 0.4 19.9 26 Argentina 24 0.6 14.4
27 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 17 0.4 4.0 27 Turkey 23 0.6 9.5
28 New Zealand 16 0.4 8.5 28 Viet Nam 17 0.4 -3.3
29 Morocco 15 0.4 5.4 29 Nigeria 17 0.4 45.6
30 South Africa 15 0.4 9.3 30 Egypt 16 0.4 1.3
Total of above 3622 90.4 - Total of above 3512 88.9 -
World (excl. intra-EU(28)) 4005 100.0 7.0 World (excl. intra-EU(28)) 3950 100.0 6.4
b  Imports adjusted to f.o.b valuation.
c  Secretariat estimates. Quarterly data not available.
d  Follows BPM5 services classification.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
- indicates non-applicable.a  China revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were revised 
downward starting in 2014 on both the credit and the debit side.
Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been 
estimated by the Secretariat. 
More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.