G/AG/GEN/191  
 
14 September 2021  
(21-6835) Page: 1/5 
Committee on Agriculture  Original: English  
 
 
STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL  
99TH MEETING OF THE WTO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE   
23-24 SEPTEMBER 2021   
 
"COVID -19 AND AGRICULTURE"  
Submission  by the International Grains Council (IGC)  
The following submission, dated 10 September  2021, is being circulated at the request of 
the International Grains Council (IGC).  
 
_______________  
 
 
1  OVERVIEW  
1.1.  Global total grains  (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 
3% y/y, to a record 2,283 million tonnes ( m t), led by new highs for maize (+75  m t year-on-year 
(y/y)) and wheat (+  8 m t). Consumption is expected to grow by 2%, including gains for food 
(+ 12 m t y/y), feed (+  30 m t) and industrial uses (+  7 m t). World stocks of grains are seen 
contracting for a fifth consecutive year, to a seven -season low of 589  m t ( - 4 m t y/y), with y/y 
falls for wheat, barley and millet/triticale only partly offset by slightly larger inventories of maize 
and rye. At 415  m t (- 12 m t y/y), global grains trade (Jul/Jun) is projected to show the first decline 
in three years, including smaller shipments of wheat ( - 1 m t), maize ( - 10 m t) and barley ( - 2 m t), 
but an increase for sorghum (+  1 m t). 
1.2.  Global soybean  production in 2021/22 is predicted to rise by 5% y/y, to a high of 380  m t, on 
sizeable crops in the three major exporters, while an uptick in consumption is anticipated on firmer 
demand from China. World inventories are expected to increase, but supplies from the United States 
of America (US)  are set to remain tight given outlooks for high local use and exports. Trade is seen 
up by  3% y/y on Asian demand.  
1.3.  Tied to bigger harvests in Asia 's key producers, rice world output in 2021/22  is forecast to 
increase by 1% y/y, to a peak of 512  m t, with consumption and stocks predicted to edge up. While 
trade in 2022 is likely to be little -changed y/y, the Council expects India 's sales to contract as 
shipments by Thailand recover amid assumed ample and competitively priced supplies.  
2  TRADE OUTLOOK OF GRAINS, OILSEEDS AND RICE  
2.1.  Wheat : owing to large production downgrades, the 2021/22 export forecasts for Canada and 
the Russia n Federation  are each lowered by 4.0  m t month -on-month ( m/m); Canada's exports 
(Jul/Jun) are placed at 18.0  m t (27.6  m t in 2020/21 ), and Russia n Federation 's at 34.0  m t 
(38.2  m t). Ukraine's exports are boosted by 1.7  m t m/m, to a record 22.5  m t (16.8  m t). 
Increased availabilities and less competition from  the Russia n Federation  are expected to support 
higher shipments by the European Union (EU) , although disappointing harvest quality could contain 
overall sales; the projection for EU exports is up by  0.9 m t m/m, to 32.9  m t (28.5  m t). The 
forecast for Australia is raised by 1.5  m t m/m, to 22.5  m t (19.8  m t), due to expectations for 
another bumper harvest. However, potentially reduced availabilities of premium grade milling 
wheats in Western Austral ia could affect sales to some markets, while logistical constraints at ports 
may also constrain shipments. The export projection for the US is unchanged m/m, 
at 24.1 m t (26.5  m t). G/AG/GEN/191  
 
- 2 - 
 
  2.2.  Maize : global trade in 2021/22 (Jul/Jun) is projected at 179.2  m t ( -5% y/ y), potentially the 
first decline in 13 -years. China could be a smaller buyer owing to increased production, elevated use 
of alternatives and moderating feed demand, yet will remain one of the world's largest importers 
(16 m t). Additionally, increased loc al supplies could limit imports in parts of Europe, 
South  Asia (Bangladesh), North Africa (Morocco) and sub -Saharan Africa (Zimbabwe). High freight 
prices may constrict buying in some instances. In contrast, larger arrivals are predicted to Turkey, 
Algeria  and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where some substitution of barley is envisaged. Brazil is 
expected to be a much bigger than normal importer due to tight maize availabilities in southern 
livestock producing states. In terms of exports, US deliveries (Jul/ Jun) are projected to retreat from 
the prior year 's peak on slower demand from China, to around 63  m t, still the second largest ever. 
Dispatches by Brazil ( -28% y/y) are seen constrained by reduced local supply and firm demand, 
including for ethanol. Conv ersely, Argentina and Ukraine may increase shipments amid ample 
exportable availabilities, although logistical bottlenecks remain a potential downside factor in the 
former.  
2.3.  Soybean : in part reflecting a scaling back of expectations for the prior year, trad e in 2021/22 
(Oct/Sep) is tentatively projected to a return to growth (+  5.0 m t y/y) on an assumed recovery in 
demand from Asian buyers, principally China. While an uptick in arrivals will ultimately be shaped 
by feed sector economics, gains could be marg inally capped by the increased utilisation of 
alternatives amid changes to the composition of feed mixes. Together with increased feed use, total 
consumption is seen expanding by 5%, to a record of 120.5  m t. Elsewhere in Asia as in other 
regions, includin g the EU -27, prospects for tight rapeseed/canola availabilities are seen supporting 
growth in imports in 2021/22.  
2.4.  With US exports expected to retreat, a key feature of global trade in the forthcoming year will 
likely be an uplift in dispatches from South A merican origins, mainly Brazil. Based on an anticipated 
record crop, competitive pricing and improved logistics, 2022/23 (Feb/Jan) exports from Brazil could 
advance by 9% y/y, to a record of 92.6  m t. Prospects for Argentina (and Paraguay) will likely hinge 
on prevailing logistics.  
2.5.  Rice: trade in 2022 (Jan/Dec) is tentatively seen little -changed y/y as reduced shipments to 
South and Pacific Asia are broadly countered by an anticipated uptick in de liveries to sub -Saharan 
Africa. Reflecting outlooks for improved supplies, deliveries to Bangladesh may retreat sharply, to 
0.6 m t (2.2  m t), while China may also purchase less. However, sub -Saharan African imports could 
expand by 8% y/y, to 18.6  m t, as population growth boosts requirements.  
2.6.  Amid ample availabilities, India is expected to remain the world's leading exporter, albeit as 
dispatches potentially retreat markedly, to 15.5  m t (18.5  m t in 2020/21 ), on increased competition 
from other Asian supp liers. Moreover, with production expected to recover after two drought -
affected seasons, Thailand may reclaim some market share, with shipments potentially reaching 
7.7 m t (5.7  m t). 
2.7.  Freight : the dry bulk freight complex, which serves the vast majority of  global grains and 
oilseeds trade, appears to have been resilient in the face of the COVID -19 pandemic. No major 
disruption has been witnessed so far, although COVID -related measures at ports have generally 
slowed cargo movement. After receding in early -2020, voyage costs on major grains/oilseeds routes 
have posted sharp increases, especially in 2021. While gains were underpinned by optimism about 
improving economic conditions and robust demand for raw materials amid government stimulus in 
many countries, a dditional support stemmed from recovering marine fuel prices and spill  over 
demand from the container market. Additionally, China 's new port restrictions, linked to its 
zero tolerance approach to the pandemic, have worsened congestion at local ports, there by 
contributing to overall tonnage supply tightness. Reflecting market strength, the IGC Grains and 
Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – a composite trade -weighted measure of total costs on major 
grains/oilseed routes – has increased by 78% since the start of 2 020 and touched its highest on 
record (since Jan 2013) in early July 2021.  
2.8.  Apart from multi -year high freight costs, importers have faced elevated prices for grains and 
oilseeds. This is evidenced by a 40% rise in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) s ince the turn 
of 2020, however, price increases have not been uniform across commodities (+30%/60% for 
grains, +50% for soyabeans, +1% for rice). With little sign to suggest a major cooling of the freight 
market in the near -term, inflated delivery costs ma y constrict international trade going forward, 
especially on long -haul routes.  G/AG/GEN/191  
 
- 3 - 
 
  ANNEX 1: WORLD ESTIMATES FOR 2021/22  
  18/19  19/20  20/21  21/22  
      est. f'cast  
million tons        29.07  26.08  
TOTAL GRAINS a)        
Production  2,141 2,186 2,213 2,295 2,283 
Trade  364 396 427 419 415 
Consumption  2,168 2,194 2,235 2,295 2,288 
Carryover stocks  623 616 594 594 589 
 year/year change  -27 -7 -22   -4 
 Major exporters b) 163 155 132 130 126 
            
WHEAT        
Production  732 761 773 788 782 
Trade  168 185 190 192 189 
Consumption  740 745 770 787 783 
Carryover stocks  260 276 279 280 278 
 year/year change  -8 16 3   -1 
 Major exporters b) 69 64 62 57 55 
            
MAIZE (CORN)        
Production  1,132 1,126 1,127 1,202 1,202 
Trade  165 175 189 180 179 
Consumption  1,149 1,154 1,156 1,199 1,201 
Carryover stocks  326 298 269 270 270 
 year/year change  -17 -29 -29   1 
 Major exporters c) 71 63 39 44 44 
      
  18/19  19/20  20/21   21/22  
  est. f'cast  proj.  
        29.07  26.08  
SOYABEANS        
Production  363 340 362 382 380 
Trade  152 170 166 172 171 
Consumption  348 351 362 378 376 
Carryover stocks  63 52 53 54 57 
 year/year change  16 -11 1   4 
 Major exporters d) 30 23 15 14 15 
            
million tons (milled basis)            
RICE        
Production  498 499 506 511 512 
Trade  43 44 47 47 47 
Consumption  488 500 509 510 511 
Carryover stocks  175 174 171 171 172 
 year/year change  10 -1 -2   1 
 Major exporters e) 39 38 38 38 39 
Figures may not add due to rounding. All calculations are based on unrounded figures.  
a) Wheat and coarse grains.  
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine, USA.  
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, USA.  
d) Argentina, Brazil, U SA. 
e) India, Pakistan , Thailand, USA, Viet Nam.  
  G/AG/GEN/191  
 
- 4 - 
 
  ANNEX 2: FREIGHT MARKETS DEVELOPMENT  
Chart 1 - IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) and Grains and Oilseeds Freight 
Index  (GOFI)  
 
Chart 2  - IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) and main voyage cost components  
 
 
 
406080100120140160180200220
IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI)
IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI)**Rebased, 2 Jan 2020 = 100
* A measure of average fob prices for wheat, maize, barley , sorghum, rice, soyabeans and rapeseed/canola
** A measure of total voyage costs across around 300 grains and oilseeds routes
 
2060100140180220260300340380420460
Vessel hire costs (timecharter)**
IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI)
Marine fuel costs (LSFO)*Rebased, 2 Jan 2020 = 100
* Average prices at 17 selected fuelling destinations 
** Average Baltic timecharter rates for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize segmentsG/AG/GEN/191  
 
- 5 - 
 
  Chart 3 - IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – Sub-Indices  
 
Chart 4  - IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) – Sub-Indices  
 
 
 
__________  
 
406080100120140160180200220240
Australia
Argentina
Black Sea
Brazil
EU
US
CanadaRebased, 2 Jan 2020 = 100
 
406080100120140160180200220240
Rapeseed/
Canola
Sorghum
Soyabeans
Maize
Wheat
Barley
RiceRebased, 2 Jan 2020 = 100