G/SG/N/8/EGY/10  
G/SG/N/10/EGY/10  
G/SG/N/11/EGY/12  
 
12 April 2021  
(21-3021) Page: 1/5 
Committee on Safeguards  Original: English  
 
 
NOTIFICATION UNDER ARTICLE 12.1(B) OF THE AGREEMENT ON  
SAFEGUARDS ON FINDING A SERIOUS INJURY OR THREAT  
THEREOF CAUSED BY INCREASED IMPORTS  
NOTIFICATION PURSUANT TO ARTICLE 12.1(C)  
OF THE AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS  
NOTIFICATION PURSUANT TO ARTICLE 9, FOOTNOTE 2  
OF THE AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS  
EGYPT 
Raw Aluminium (Ingots, Billets & Wire  Rod) 
The following communication, dated  and received on 12 April 2021 , is being circulated at the request 
of the delegation of Egypt . 
 
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The Arab Republic of Egypt hereby wishes to notify the Committee on Safeguards pursuant to 
Articles  12.1(b), and 12.1(c) of the Agreement on Safeguards, upon making findings of serious injury 
or threat thereof caused by the increased imports of Raw A luminium (Ingots, Billets & Wire  Rod).  
The investigation was initiated on 16 April 2020 pursuant to Article 20 of the Egyptian Regulation 
G/SG/N/6/EGY/15.  
1) EVIDENCE, CITING RELEVANT DATA AND THE APPLICABLE PERIOD OF 
INVESTIGATION OF INJURY OR THREAT THEREOF CAUSED BY INCREASED IMPORTS  
The period of investigation was established from  1 July 2016 until 31 December  2019 and 
divided into Fiscal Years to allow for analysis of the intervening trends.  
2) EVIDENCE OF SERIOUS INJURY OR THREAT THEREOF CAUSED BY INCREASED 
IMPORTS  
- The injury assessment has been conducted on Raw Aluminium (Ingots,  Billets & Wire  Rod) 
(the products concerned); the products are classified under the following H.S. tariff item 
numbers within the Egyptian Customs Tariff Schedule. (760110 , 760120 , and 760511). The 
H.S. tariff item numbers are given for reference purposes on ly where there is an increase in 
imports.  
- The analysis was made with an assessment of the products. This injury analysis below is based 
on the questionnaire replies subm itted by the domestic industry.  
- The analysis showed that the domestic industry for the concerned products is suffering from 
serious injury and it is in an extremely vulnerable position.  
- The domestic industry is still in an insecure situation and under the threat of serious injury if 
the increasing trend in imports continued.  G/SG/N/8/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/10/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/11/EGY/12  
 
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  a) Unfor eseen developments  
In the second half of FY (2017/2018 ), the United States applied additional measures to its 
imports of aluminium products from all countries, which caused a decli ne in the imports of these 
products into the huge US market in 2018 and 2019 when compared to 2017 (the period 
preceding these US applications of additional custom measures ). Such measures also forced 
these countries to search for other markets where they would not be subject to these 
unprecedented duties and therefor e, Egypt has become an easy target for significant volumes 
of aluminium imports.  
The production capacity of some producing countries has significantly increased which has 
encouraged these countries to search for other big markets, which can absorb these surplus 
production capacities. For example, some countries have operated new production lines and 
smelters. Consequently, Egypt has become one of these target markets, which can absorb huge 
quantities of aluminium imports (products under investigation) which has posed a serious threat 
to the continued presence of the applicant in the domestic market.  
b) Information on whether there is an absolute increase in imports or an increase in 
imports rel ative to domestic production  
Table 1: Imports Volume (Tons)  
Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Imports Volume/Ton  14521  31378  75753  6333 39335  
Index %  100%  216%  522%  100%  621%  
Index imports volume (%) 
domestic production  100%  229%  557%  100%  717%  
- The above table shows a significant increase in the volume of imports of 116 and 422 % in 
absolute terms during the fiscal years 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 respectively compared to the 
year 2016/2017. This sharp increase in imports continued during the first half of the fiscal year 
2019/2020 and reached 521 % compared to the same period of the fiscal year 2016/2017.  
- The above table also shows a sharp increase of 129 and 457 % in the volume of imports relative 
to the domestic production during the fiscal years 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 respectively 
compared to the year 2016/2017. In the first half o f the fiscal year 2019/2020, the relative, 
significant and sharp increase in imports continued as it reached 617 % compared to the same 
period of the year 2016/2017.  
c) Evidence of serious injury or threat thereof caused by increased imports  
To make a determin ation of serious injury which faced by  the domestic industry producing the 
like or directly competitive product, an evaluation of relevant factors on an objective and 
quantifiable basis is being conducted as follows.  
Table 2: Domestic Sales  
Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Change in Sales 
Volume (%)  100%  88% 54% 100%  16% 
- The above table shows a significant and sharp decline in the sales of the domestic industry of 
12 and 46 % during the fiscal years 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 respectively compared to the 
year 2016/2017. Such a sharp decline continued during the first half of 2019/2020 compared to 
the first half of 2016/2017 reaching 84 %. G/SG/N/8/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/10/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/11/EGY/12  
 
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  Table 3: Market Share  
Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Index of Share of 
Domestic Industry (%)  100%  88% 53% 100%  27% 
Index of Imports Share 
(%) 100%  210%  520%  100%  1071%  
 
- The above table shows that the market share of domestic industry sales declined by 12 and 47 % 
in favor of the market share of imports, which increased by 110 and 420% during the same 
period . 
- During the first half of the year 2019/2020, the market share of the domestic industry sales 
declined sharply by 73 % compared by the same period of the year 2016/2017, while the market 
share of imports increased sharply by 971 % despite the decline in the volume of the domestic 
market in the same period, which i ndicates that imports acquired a significant part of the share 
of the domestic sales in the market.  
Table 4: Production and Capacity Utilization  
Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Index of production 
volume (%)  100%  97% 96% 100%  91%  
Index Capacity 
Utilization (%)  100%  97% 96% 100%  91%  
 
- The above table shows a decline in the volume of production of 3 and 4 % in the fiscal years 
2017/2018 and 2018/2019 respectively compared to the year 2016/2017. The decline continued 
by 9% during the first half of the fiscal year 2019/2020 compared to the same comparable period 
of the year 2016/2017.  
- The above table shows a decline in capacity utilization of the same rate of the decline in 
production during the period of injury analysis with stability in the available capacity.  
Table 5: Workers and Worker's Productivity  
- The above table shows a decline in labor during the period of investigation of 6 and 11 % during 
2017/2018 and 2018/2019 respectively compared to the year 2016/2017 . The decline 
continued by 14 % during the first half of 2019/2020 compared to the first half of 2016/2017.  
- The above table also shows that productivity per laborer increased during the period of 
investigation by 3 and 10 % during 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 compared to the year 2016/2017 
because the decline in the number of laborers was more than the decline in production. 
Moreover, in the first half of 2019/2020, productivity increased b y 7% compared to the same 
comparable period in the year 2016/2017.  
Table 6: Profit and Loss  
Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Change in profit & 
Losses (%)  100%  124%  51% 100%  -189%  
- The above table shows that the profits of the domestic industry increased by 24 % in 
2017/2018 compared to the previous year, while declined by 49 % in 2018/2019 compared to 
2016/2017. In the first half of 2019/2020, profits turned into losses because of the continued Description  2016/2017  2017/2018  2018/2019  First Half of 
(2016/2017)  First Half of 
(2019/2020)  
Labour Index (%)  100%  94% 89% 100%  86%  
Productivity 
(ton/worker) (%)  100%  103%  110%  100%  107%  G/SG/N/8/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/10/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/11/EGY/12  
 
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  flow of imports in substantial volumes, which indicates the serious injury suffered by the 
domestic industry.  
- The I nvestigating authori ty has concluded that the profits of the domestic industry in 
2018/2019 turned into losses during the first half of 2019/2020 coinciding with the substantial 
increase in imports, which indicates the serious injury suffered by the domestic industry.  
d) Precise  description of the product involved  
The product under investigation is raw aluminium (Ingots, Billets  & Wire Rod), which is classified 
under H.S . Tariff Codes: 760110, 760120 , and 760511.  
e) Description of the proposed measure  
The Investigating Authority pro posed imposing definitive sa feguard measures for three years.  
f) Proposed date of introduction of the measure  
The definitive safeguard measures will come into force  in 15 April 2021 . 
g) Expected duration of the measure  
The expected duration of proposed measure is three years.  
h) For a measure with a duration of more than three years, provide the proposed date 
for the review (under Article 7.4) to be held not later than the mid -term of the 
measure, if such a date for the review has already been scheduled  
Not applicable.  
i) Offer of consultation  
Consistent with article 12.3 of the safeguard agreement . Egypt is prepared to consult on the 
proposed safeguard measure with those members having a substantial interest in the subject 
product.  
j) Expected timetable for progressive liberalization of the measure  
The measures should be liberalize d gradually by 3 % over the three  years  as follows:  
DURATION  FIRST YEAR  SECOND YEAR  THIRD YEAR  
VALUE  16.5% of CIF value  
Minimum limit 333 USD/ ton  13.5% of CIF value  
Minimum limit 271 USD/ ton  10.5% of CIF value  
Minimum limit 211 USD/ ton  
k) Developing countries exempted from the safeguard measure  
Imports from developing country Members shall not be subject to the proposed definitive 
safeguard measure s as long as each Member's exports individually do not exceed 3% of total 
imports into Egypt. In addition, the share of the members with less than 3% import share do es 
not collectively account for more than 9% of total imports into Egypt.  G/SG/N/8/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/10/EGY/10 • G/SG/N/11/EGY/12  
 
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  The address of the competent authority for correspondence is:  
Ministry of Trade and Industry  
Trade Remedies Sector  
Mr. Ibrahim El Seginy  
El Maleya Towers – Tower No. 6 – 9th floor 
Extension of Ramses St. – Naser City – Cairo 
Tel : (202) 23422479  
Fax : (202) 23420784  
E-mail: itpd@tas.gov.eg  
Website: www.tas.gov.eg  
 
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