PRESS/ 791 
12 April 2017 
(17-1964) Page: 1/21 
    
 
PRESS RELEASE  
E M B A R G O  
N O T  F O R  P U B L I C A T I O N ,  O R  D I S T R I B U T I O N  B Y  N E W S  A G E N C I E S  U N T I L  
1 2 : 0 0  G E N E V A  T I M E  1 2  A P R I L  2 0 1 7  
TRADE STATISTICS AND  OUTLOOK  
Trade recovery expected in 2017 and 2018, amid policy 
uncertainty  
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is 
expected to rebound this year from its tepid 
performance in 2016, but only if the global economy 
recovers as expected and governments pursue the 
right policy mix, WTO economists reported.  
 
The WTO is fore casting that global trade will expand  
by 2.4% in 2017; however, as deep  uncertainty 
about near-term economic and policy developments 
raise the forecast risk, this figure is placed within a 
range of 1.8% to 3.6%. In 2018, the WTO is 
forecasting trade growt h between 2.1% and 4%.   
 
The unpredictable direction of the global economy in 
the near term  and the lack of clarity about 
government  action on  monetary, fiscal and trade 
policies raises the risk that trade activity will be 
stifled. A spike in inflation leading to higher interest 
rates, tighter fiscal policies and the imposition of 
measures to curtail trade could all undermine higher 
trade growth over the next two years.  
 
"Weak international trade growth in the last few 
years largely reflects continuing weakness in the 
global economy. Trade has the potential to 
strengthen global growth if the movement of goods 
and supply of services across borders remains largely 
unfettered.  However, if policymakers attempt to 
address job losses at home with severe restr ictions 
on imports, trade cannot help boost growth and may 
even constitute a drag on the recovery,"  said WTO MAIN POINTS  
 World merchandise trade volume is 
forecast to grow 2. 4% in 2017 , but 
due to a high level of uncertaint y, this 
is placed within a range of 1.8 -3.6%.  
 This is up from a very weak 1.3% in 
2016 , as global GDP growth rises to 
2.7% this year from 2.3% last year.  
 Trade growth in 2018 should pick up 
slightly to between 2.1 -4.0%.  
 The ratio of trade growth to GDP 
growth fell below 1:1 in 2016, for the 
first time since 2001.  
 The slowdown in emerging market 
economies  contributed much to the 
sluggish rate of trade growth in 2016, 
but these countries are expected to 
return to modest growth in 2017.  
 Export orders and conta iner shipping 
have been strong  in the early months 
of 2017, but trade recovery could be 
undermined by policy shocks.  
 Policy uncertainty is the main risk 
factor , including imposition of trade 
restrictive measures and monetary 
tightening.  PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Director -General Roberto Azevêdo.  
 
"Although trade does cause some economic dislocation in certain communities, its adverse effects 
should not be o verstated  – nor should they obscure its benefits in terms of growth, development 
and job creation . We should see trade as part of the solution to economic difficulties, not part of 
the problem.  In fact, i nnovation , automation and new technologies are resp onsible for roughly 
80% of the manufacturing jobs that have been lost and no one questions that technological 
advances benefit most people most of the time. The answer is therefore to pursue policies that 
reap the benefits from trade , while also applying h orizontal solution s to unemployment which 
embraces better education and training and social programmes that can quickly help get worker s 
back on their feet  and ready to compete for the jobs of the future ," he said.  
 
The WTO's more promising forecasts for 2 017 and 2018 are predicated on certain assumptions and 
there is considerable downside risk that expansion will fall short of these estimates.  Attaining 
these rates of growth depends to a large degree on global GDP expansion in line with forecasts of 
2.7% this year and 2.8% next year. While there are reasonable expectations that such growth 
could be achieved, expansion along these lines would represent a significant improvement on the 
2.3% GDP growth in 2016.  
 
In 2016, the weak trade growth of just 1.3% was partly due to cyclical factors as economic activity 
slowed across the board, but it also reflected deeper structural changes in the relationship 
between trade and economic output. The most trade -intensive components of global demand were 
particularly wea k last year as investment spending slumped in the United States and  as China 
continued to rebalance its economy away from investment and toward consumption, dampening 
import demand.  
 
Global economic growth has been unbalanced since the financial crisis, b ut for the first time in 
several years all regions of the world economy should experience a synchronized upturn in 2017. 
This could reinforce growth and provide an additional boost to trade.  
 
Forward looking indicators, including the WTO’s World Trade Outl ook Indicator1, point to stronger 
trade growth in the first half of 2017, but policy shocks could easily undermine positive recent 
trends. Unexpected inflation could force central banks to tighten monetary policy faster than they 
would like, undercutting e conomic growth and trade in the short -run.  Other factors, such as the 
uncertainty provoked by the United Kingdom 's withdrawal from the European Union could 
potentially have an effect. Meanwhile,  the possibility of a rise in the application of restrictive trade  
policies could affect demand  and investment flows, and cut economic growth over the medium -to-
long term.  In light of these factors,  there is a significant risk that trade expansion in 2017 will fall 
into the lower end of the range.  
 
The recovery of world trade this year and next is based on expected world real GDP growth at 
market exchange rates of 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018.  This GDP estimate assumes that 
developed economies maintain generally expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and that 
developing economies continue to emerge from their recent slowdown.  It should be noted that the 
WTO does not produce its own GDP forecasts, but rather uses consensus estimates based on a 
variety of sources including the International Monetary Fund, the Or ganization for Economic 
Cooperation and Development , and the United Nations, among others (Table 1).  
 
Historically, the volume of world merchandise trade has tended to grow about 1.5 times faster 
than world output, although in the 1990s it grew more than t wice as fast. However, since the 
                                                
1 https://www.wto.org/statistics  PRESS/ 791 
 
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  financial crisis, the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth has fallen to around 1:1. Last year marked 
the first time since 2001 that this ratio has dropped below 1, to a ratio of 0.6:1 (Chart 1).  The 
ratio is expected to partly recover  in 2017, but it remains a cause for concern.    
Chart 1: Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP 
growth, 1981 -2016 
% change and ratio  
 
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, consensus estimates  for GDP . 
 
 
Box 1:  Import adjusted demand  
 
 
A forthcoming WTO working paper by Auboin and Borino examines the reduced sensitivity of trade to GDP, 
explaining the post -crisis trade slowdown in terms of the expenditure components of demand (consumption, 
government spending, investment and exports).  The paper develops an import intensity -adjusted measure of 
demand (IAD) that takes into account the import content of spending, with investment being the most trade 
intensive in most countries and government expe nditure being the least. This measurement explains much of 
the trade slowdown since 2012 -15 and could help to improve the accuracy of trade forecasts in the future. 
Projections for 2017 and 2018 using IAD produce slightly weaker import growth for developed  countries and 
slightly stronger imports for developing economies, which is as expected given the higher rates of investment 
in developing countries.  
 
Import intensity can change over time with implications for world trade (see Chart 2 and Appendix Chart 1 ).  
For example, the import content of Chinese investment spending fell from around 30% in 2004 to 18% in 2014 
as China sourced intermediate goods domestically. Meanwhile, the imported content of German investment 
rose from 24% to 38% between 1995 and 2014 . These changes could conceivably alter the geographic 
distribution of trade, with stronger trade in Europe and weaker trade in Asia.  Low oil prices would also be 
expected to reduce investment in the energy sector, which probably contributed to weakness o f imports in 
resource exporting regions in 2016.  
 
 
 
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  Chart 2: Import content of investment for selected economies, 1995 -2014  
% 
 
Source: World Input -Output Database (WIOD).  
 
 
 
 
Details on trade developments in 2016  
The unusually low 1.3% growth  in world merchandise trade volume in 2016 was the result of 
several  risk factors converging  over the course of the year.  These weighed on imports of  both 
developed and developing economies, although  the latter were more affected  (Chart 3).   
 
Developing economies suffered a sharp 3% decline  in imports in  the first quarter, equ ivalent  to an 
annualized drop of 11.6% , but growth resumed in the second quarter and  losses were  recovered 
by the end of the year.  Meanwhile developed economies ' impo rts continued to grow but at a 
reduced pace.  The weakness of import s was reflected on the export side in slow growth of 
shipments from both developed and developing countries.   
 
For the year, imports of developed countries  grew 2.0% while those of develo ping economies  
stagnated at 0.2 %.  Exports recorded  modest growth in both developed and developing countries , 
1.4% in the former and 1.3 % in the latter.  
 
Geographic regions were affected to varying degrees by the slump in trade in 2016 (Chart 4).  The 
first quarter was characterized by  financial turbulence that affected China and its regional trading 
partners, as fears of an economic hard -landing and currency depreciation increased.  Asian 
imports dropped in Q1, but the slump was short -lived and Asia ultima tely recorded growth of 2.0% 
for the year.   
 
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  Chart 3: Volume of merchandise exports and imports by lev el of development, 
2012Q1 -2016Q4  
Seasonally adjusted indices, 2012Q1=100  
Exports Imports
9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
World Developed Developing and emerging9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
World Developed Developing and emerging
 
Source: WTO Secretariat . 
 
Declines in imports of South America and Other regio ns (comprising Africa, the Middle East and 
the Commonwealth of Independent States) were steeper  and more  persistent , driven  mostly by 
low commodity prices . Much of South America's decline was due to Brazil, which remain ed mired in 
a severe  recession .  Mean while, Europe's export s and import s grew faster than  North America's , 
which have  been mostly flat since the start of 2015.  
 
Chart 4: Volume of merchandise exports and imports by region, 2012Q1 -
2016Q4  
Seasonally adjusted indices, 2012Q1=100  
Exports Imports
9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
North America South America Europe
Asia Other9095100105110115120
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
North America South America Europe
Asia Other
 
Source: WTO Se cretariat . 
 
 PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Despite positive  growth  in its exports and imports, North America was one of the biggest 
contributors to the weakness of world imports in 2016.  This is illustrated by Chart 5, which shows 
regional contributions to world trade volume growth.  In 2015, North American imports added 1.2 
percentage points to world import growth of 2.9%, or 42% of the total increase.  By contrast, the 
region only contributed 0.1 percentage points to world import growth of 1.2% last year.  
 
Asia and Europe were the o nly regions making significant positive contribution s to global import 
demand in 2016, with Europe contributing 1.6 percentage points (39% of the total increase) and 
Asia adding 1.9 percentage points (49% of the total).   
Chart 5: Contributions to world tr ade volume growth by region, 2011 -2016  
Annual % change  
 
Exports Imports
-10123456
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America South and Central America
Europe Asia
Other regions World-10123456
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America South and Central America
Europe Asia
Other regions World
 
 
Source: WTO Secretariat . 
 
Reasons for the lacklustre performance of North America’s trade are multi -faceted, but they 
include low oil prices and declining rates of investment, particularly in the e nergy sector. 
Investment made essentially no positive contribution to GDP growth in the United States in 2016 
(see Appendix Chart 1 ).   
 
Investment is the most import intensive component of GDP and has been particularly weak in 
developed countries since th e financial crisis , with sharp contractions in Europe in 2012 and 2013 
during the sovereign debt crisis .  The contribution of investment to China’s economic growth has 
also declined,  albeit  more gradually.  Investment accounted for more than half of China’ s GDP 
growth in 2012 -13, but by 2016 this had fallen to 39%.  
 
Commodity prices and exchange rates played a large role in the disappointing trade performance 
of 2016.  Plunging prices for oil and metals since the middle of 2014 deprived resource exporting 
regions of revenue to purchase imports. Commodity prices have stabilized and staged a partial 
recovery, but a return to price levels of a few years ago is unlikely as long as oil inventories 
remain high  and the US dollar remains strong (Chart 6) .   
 
Commodi ty price declines have distributional impacts across countries, helping net importers and 
harming net exporters, so their impact is ambiguous in principle.  In practice , however, the price PRESS/ 791 
 
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  slide since 2014 appears to have had a large negative impact on  oil producing countries  without a 
corresponding positive impact in importing countries . 
Chart 6: Prices of primary commodities, January 2014 -February 2017  
Indices, January 2014=100  
20406080100120
2014M1
2014M4
2014M7
2014M10
2015M1
2015M4
2015M7
2015M10
2016M1
2016M4
2016M7
2016M10
2017M1
Food and beverages Agricultural raw materials Metals Fuels
 
Source: IMF Primary Commodity Prices . 
 
 
Dollar values of international trade  flows have been strongly influenced by exchange rates in 
recent years. In 2016 , world merchandise exports were valued at US$ 15.46 trillion, down 3.3% 
from the previous year.  All regions recorded declines in exports, with the smallest drop registered 
by Europe ( -0.3%) and the largest reported by the Commonwealth of Independent States 
(-16.2%).  On the import side Europe saw a small increase of 0.2% , while all other regions 
recorded declines (See Appendix Tables 1 – 6 and Appendix Chart 2 for nominal trade  
developments ). 
 
There were no major changes in rankings of merchandise  exporters and importers.  The Republic 
of Korea dropped from 6th to 8th place in export  ranking s when  individual European Union member 
countries are counted separately, but it  only fel l from 5th to 6th place with the EU treated as a 
single trader.  
 
Appendix Chart 2 shows year -on-year growth in monthly exports and imports of selected major 
traders through February.  Trade values are clearly recovering in the early months of 2017, but 
whether this growth can be sustained throughout the year remains to be seen.  Much of the 
increase can be explained by weakness in trade growth in the previous year rather than strong 
growth in the current year.    
 
 PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Chart 7: Growth in the value of commercial services exports by category, 2013 -
16 
% change in US$ values  
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
 
World commercial services exports were essentially unchanged in 2016 after having fallen  5.5%  in 
value  in 2015.  This is illustrated by Chart 7, which shows  growth in the dollar value of commercial 
services exports since 2013, broken down by major services categories.  Total c ommercial services 
trade only grew 0.1% in 2016  and transport services fell 4.7%.  Other types of services exports 
saw modest increases including  other commercial services, a category that include s financial 
services.   
 
Detailed breakdowns of commercial services trade by region and country are shown in Appendix 
Tables 2, 5 and 6. Asia recorded the largest regional year -on-year increase in services in 2016 on 
both the export and import sides (0.9% and 2.6%, respectively).  Meanwhile, Other regions 
(including Africa, Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States) had the largest 
declines ( -0.6% and -7.4%).  In gener al, trade in commercial services tends to be less volatile 
than merchandise trade.  
 
 
Outlook for trade in 2017 and 2018  
 
Leading indicators of real trade growth are up in the early months of 2017, suggesting a 
strengthening of trade at the start of this ye ar.  Container throughput of major ports has 
recovered from its slump of 2015 -16 to reach a record high level , with year -on-year growth of 
5.2% in the first two months of 2017  (Chart 8). A key index of world export orders  has also 
climbed  to its highest le vel in several years  in February , pointing to faster trade growth in the 
coming months (Chart 9).  Finally ,  estimates of world GDP growth at market exchange rates have 
risen from 2 .3% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018 . 
PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Chart 8: Container shipping t hroughput index, January 2007 - February 2017  
Seasonally adjusted trend index, 2010=100  
 
 
 
Source:  Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics . 
 
Balanced against these positive indications are a number of clear and significa nt risks.  Growing 
anti-globalization sentiment and the rise of populist political movements have increased the 
likelihood that restrictive  trade measures will be employed more widely. Narrowly targeted 
measures would probably not have a n appreciable impac t on world  trade and output , but across -
the-board measures or abandonment of existing trade agreements could damage consumer and 
business confidence and undermine international trade and investment . 
 
With inflationary pressures building gradually in develo ped countries, central banks could also 
accelerate their pace of monetary tightening, with negative consequences for economic growth and 
trade in the short -run.  Changes in fiscal policy could also have unintended international 
consequences that could redu ce global economic activity  and trade .  
 
In Europe, challenging negotiations between the United Kingdom and the rest of the European 
Union will increase uncertainty about the shape of their trade relations in the future . Sovereign 
debt in highly indebted E U countries is still an outstanding issue that may come to the fore once 
again over the next two years.    
 
These and other risks are reflected in indices of policy uncertainty, which have increase d sharply 
since 2015 (Chart 10). 
 
PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Chart 9: Global purchasing  managers index of new export orders, January 2012 
- February 2017  
Index, base=50  
 
 
Note: Figures greater than 50 indicate expansion while figures less than 50 denote contraction.  
Source: IHS -Markit . 
 
Assuming that developed eco nomies maintain generally accommodative fiscal and monetary 
policies, that economic recovery in emerging economies proceeds gradually, and that restrictive 
trade measures do not proliferate, we would expect merchandise trade to grow 2. 4% in volume 
terms in  2017. However, given the significant downside risks and the prolonged period of weak 
trade growth in recent years,  this growth is placed within a range of 1.8% to 3.6% .  World trade 
growth could be as low as 1.8% in 2017 if downside risks emerge, or it co uld be as high as 3.6% if 
our basic assumptions are too pessimistic, but the upside potential is less likely.  In 2018 trade 
volume growth should be between 2.1% and 4.0%  (Table 1) .   
 
The approach to calculating estimates for forecast periods (2017 and 20 18) has been refined to 
reflect the high level of uncertainty in the global economy and to mitigate problems of over -
estimation that have characterized economic forecasts since the financial crisis.  Despite these 
corrections , risks remain  predominantly on  the downside.   
 
 
 
 
 
PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2013 -2018   a 
Annual % change  
 
2013 2014 2015 2016 2018P
Volume of world merchandise trade  b 2.4 2.7 2.6 1.3 2.4  (1.8-3.6)   2.1-4.0
Exports
Developed economies 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.4 2.8  (1.9-4.0)   2.1-4.2
Developing economies  c 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 2.2  (1.8-3.4)   2.0-4.0
North America 2.7 4.2 0.7 0.5 3.2  (2.7-4.0)   3.7-4.7
South and Central America 1.7 -2.2 2.5 2.0 1.4  (1.3-1.6)   2.2-2.6
Europe 1.7 2.0 3.6 1.4 2.8  (2.0-4.2)   1.9-4.1
Asia 5.4 4.3 1.1 1.8 2.5  (1.7-3.9)   1.9-4.4
Other regions  d 0.5 0.9 4.3 0.3 0.8  (1.1-2.0)   1.0-3.0
Imports
Developed economies 0.0 3.6 4.7 2.0 3.0  (2.2-4.4)   2.0-4.0
Developing economies  c 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 2.2  (1.8-3.3)   2.5-4.3
North America 1.3 4.8 6.7 0.4 3.0  (1.8-4.8)   2.5-5.1
South and Central America 4.5 -2.4 -5.8 -8.7 0.1  (-0.6-1.0)   1.0-3.0
Europe -0.2 3.2 4.3 3.1 2.9  (2.0-4.2)   1.6-3.6
Asia 4.8 3.0 2.9 2.0 3.2  (3.2-4.1)   2.8-4.6
Other regions  d 1.8 -0.9 -5.1 -2.4 0.5  (-0.4-1.8)   2.5-3.0
Real GDP at market exchange rates 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.8
Developed economies 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.6 2.0
Developing economies  c 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.5 4.2
North America 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.6 2.7
South and Central America 3.3 0.6 -0.9 -2.0 2.0
Europe 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.7
Asia 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0
Other regions  d 2.7 2.5 1.1 1.7 3.01.0
1.8
4.3
2.42017P
2.7
2.0
4.0
2.3
 
a. Figures for 2017 and 2018 are projections.  
b. Average of exports and imports.  
c. Includes the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including assoc iate and former member States.  
d. Other regions comprise Africa, Commonwea lth of Independent States (CIS), and Middle East.  
Sources:  WTO Secretariat for trade; cons ensus estimates for GDP, with data source from the International  
Monetary Fund (IMF), Organ isation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United Nations,  
the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and a variety of national sources.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Chart 10: Global  policy uncertainty, January 2014 - February 2017  
Index, mean of 1997 -2015=100  
 
Source: policyuncertainty.com  
 
 PRESS/ 791 
 
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Appendix Tables and Charts  PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Appendix Table 1: World merchandise trade by region and selected economies, 
2016   
$bn and %  
Value Value
2016 2010-16 2014 2015 2016 2016 2010-16 2014 2015 2016
World 15464 0.6 0.3 -13.5 -3.3 15799 0.7 0.6 -12.5 -3.2
North America 2219 2.1 3.1 -8.0 -3.2 3067 2.3 3.4 -4.5 -2.9
United States of America 1455 2.2 2.6 -7.3 -3.2 2251 2.3 3.6 -4.0 -2.8
Canada  a 390 0.1 3.9 -13.9 -4.8 417 0.6 0.9 -9.1 -4.5
Mexico 374 3.8 4.4 -4.1 -1.8 398 4.2 5.3 -1.5 -1.9
South and Central America  b 511 -2.4 -7.0 -21.1 -5.6 533 -1.5 -4.0 -16.4 -14.5
Brazil 185 -1.4 -7.0 -15.1 -3.1 143 -4.7 -4.5 -25.2 -19.8
Other South and Central America  b 326 -2.9 -6.9 -24.1 -6.9 389 -0.2 -3.7 -12.3 -12.4
Europe 5942 0.8 0.5 -12.5 -0.3 5920 0.0 1.2 -13.2 0.2
European Union (28) 5373 0.6 1.3 -12.5 -0.3 5330 -0.3 2.2 -13.4 0.1
Germany 1340 1.0 3.4 -11.2 1.0 1055 0.0 2.2 -12.9 0.3
France 501 -0.7 -0.1 -12.9 -0.9 573 -1.1 -0.7 -15.3 -0.1
Netherlands 570 -0.1 0.2 -15.3 0.0 503 -0.4 0.0 -12.9 -1.9
United Kingdom 409 -0.3 -6.6 -8.9 -11.0 636 1.2 4.6 -9.3 1.5
Italy 462 0.5 2.2 -13.7 0.9 404 -3.0 -1.1 -13.3 -1.6
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 
including associate and former member 
States 419 -5.5 -5.8 -31.9 -16.2 333 -3.6 -11.7 -32.4 -2.6
Russian Federation  a 282 -5.7 -4.8 -31.3 -17.5 191 -4.3 -9.8 -37.3 -0.8
Africa 346 -6.6 -7.6 -29.6 -11.5 501 0.7 0.4 -13.8 -9.5
South Africa  g 75 -3.2 -4.1 -11.7 -7.8 92 -0.9 -3.5 -14.2 -12.5
Africa less South Africa 271 -7.4 -8.2 -33.2 -12.5 409 1.1 1.3 -13.8 -8.8
Oil exporters  c 113 -14.4 -13.6 -44.6 -27.6 143 -0.7 1.2 -19.1 -12.6
Non oil exporters 158 1.7 1.6 -15.4 2.8 266 2.2 1.3 -10.4 -6.6
Middle East 766 -2.8 -4.3 -34.4 -9.5 665 2.3 2.1 -7.7 -7.2
Asia 5262 1.9 2.6 -7.9 -3.7 4781 0.9 0.1 -14.5 -4.7
China 2098 4.9 6.0 -2.9 -7.7 1587 2.2 0.5 -14.3 -5.5
Japan 645 -2.9 -3.5 -9.5 3.2 607 -2.2 -2.5 -20.2 -6.3
India 264 2.6 2.5 -17.1 -1.3 359 0.4 -0.5 -15.1 -8.6
Newly industrialized economies (4)  d 1131 0.3 1.3 -11.1 -3.5 1041 -0.9 1.1 -16.6 -5.8
Memorandum
MERCOSUR  e 283 -3.4 -9.0 -22.2 -6.0 231 -4.6 -6.6 -21.5 -20.9
ASEAN  f 1141 1.4 1.6 -10.1 -1.7 1079 2.1 -0.8 -11.4 -1.2
EU (28) extra-trade 1932 1.2 -1.9 -12.3 -2.7 1889 -1.2 0.3 -14.7 -1.5
Least developed countries (LDCs) 145 -1.8 -3.5 -23.5 -6.0 228 5.1 6.5 -9.7 -3.0
a. Imports are valued f.o.b.
b. Includes the Caribbean.  For composition of groups see the Technical Notes of WTO, World Trade Statistical Review 2016. 
c. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
d. Hong Kong, China; Korea, Republic of; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
e. Southern Common Market: Argentina; Brazil; Paraguay; Uruguay and Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of. 
g.  Secretariat estimates.
Source: WTO Secretariat.f. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, 
Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam.Exports Imports
Annual percentage change Annual percentage change
 PRESS/ 791 
 
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  Appendix Table 2: World commercial services trade by region and selected 
economies, 2016  
$bn and %  
Value Value
2016 2010-2016 2014 2015 2016 2016 2010-2016 2014 2015 2016
World 4770 3.6 6.3 -5.5 0.1 4645 3.8 7.3 -5.9 0.5
North America 840 4.7 5.5 0.1 0.5 610 3.4 3.6 -0.3 2.2
United States 733 5.1 6.5 1.1 0.3 482 4.2 4.9 2.2 3.2
South and Central America  a 140 3.2 2.0 -4.4 -0.1 165 2.3 1.2 -11.8 -4.8
Brazil 33 1.8 7.1 -15.5 -1.3 61 1.0 6.0 -19.8 -10.8
Europe 2245 2.9 7.3 -8.9 -0.3 1955 2.9 7.2 -7.2 1.1
European Union (28) 2010 3.1 7.5 -8.7 0.2 1767 2.7 7.2 -7.5 1.1
Germany 267 3.1 7.3 -9.2 2.8 304 2.5 2.8 -11.7 2.2
United Kingdom 329 3.6 7.5 -2.5 -5.2 191 1.2 4.9 -0.5 -8.9
France 235 2.6 8.1 -12.1 -2.5 235 4.5 10.6 -8.0 1.5
Netherlands 174 1.9 8.7 -9.6 -1.0 165 2.3 7.5 -2.9 -1.7
Ireland 146 8.5 13.7 -3.5 8.8 192 9.7 19.4 13.3 14.6
Asia 1215 4.4 6.9 -3.2 0.9 1415 6.1 11.0 -3.0 2.6
China  b 207 … … -0.8 -4.3 449 … … 0.5 3.7
Japan 169 4.2 20.0 -0.7 6.5 181 1.7 12.8 -8.5 3.6
India  c 161 5.6 5.3 -0.6 3.5 133 2.6 1.2 -3.7 8.4
Singapore 149 6.8 9.8 -3.0 0.6 155 7.4 8.4 -2.9 0.5
Korea, Republic of 92 1.8 8.2 -12.9 -5.0 109 2.1 5.1 -3.0 -2.0
Hong Kong, China 98 3.4 1.8 -2.2 -5.7 74 0.9 -1.7 0.2 0.5
Australia 52 2.2 1.8 -9.1 8.6 56 1.6 -5.4 -10.2 -1.5
Other regions 330 2.9 1.4 -3.4 -0.6 500 2.2 5.2 -11.8 -7.4
Russian Federation 49 0.2 -6.2 -21.4 -3.3 73 -0.1 -5.4 -26.8 -16.4
Egypt 14 -8.5 13.3 -10.7 -23.3 16 3.5 13.5 -0.8 -3.3
South Africa 14 -1.9 0.3 -10.9 -4.9 15 -4.5 -5.5 -9.1 -3.7
Morocco 15 0.3 10.7 -8.6 3.5 7 3.9 21.7 -10.6 1.8
United Arab Emirates  d 26 … 12.5 14.7 … 66 … 4.2 3.0 …
Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 15 6.6 5.8 15.4 10.2 52 0.2 21.1 -11.2 -7.5
Memorandum
 Extra-EU(28) trade 879 3.2 7.0 -9.5 -1.3 725 2.6 8.8 -5.0 -2.5
Least developed countries (LDCs) 32 7.3 7.8 -3.3 -4.4 69 4.2 6.8 -16.5 4.5
a  Includes the Caribbean.  For composition of groups see Chapter IV of the World Trade Statistical Review 2016.
c  Imports adjusted to f.o.b. valuation.
d  Secretariat estimates. Quarterly data not available.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. While provisional data for Q1-Q4 2016 data were available in mid March for some 85 
countries (accounting for at least 80% of world commercial services trade), estimates for most other countries are based on data for the first 
three quarters. More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.Exports Imports
Annual % change Annual % change
b  China recently revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were revised downward 
starting in 2014 on both the credit and the debit side.
 PRESS/ 791 
 
- 16 - 
 
  Appendix Table 3: Leading merchandise exporters and importers, 2016  
$bn and %  
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 China 2098 13.2 -8 1 United States of America 2251 13.9 -3
2 United States of America 1455 9.1 -3 2 China 1587 9.8 -5
3 Germany 1340 8.4 1 3 Germany 1055 6.5 0
4 Japan 645 4.0 3 4 United Kingdom 636 3.9 1
5 Netherlands 570 3.6 0 5 Japan 607 3.7 -6
6 Hong Kong, China 517 3.2 1 6 France 573 3.5 0
- domestic exports 26 0.2 95
- re-exports 491 3.1 -1
7 France 501 3.1 -1 7 Hong Kong, China 547 3.4 -2
- retained imports 121 0.7 -10
8 Korea, Republic of 495 3.1 -6 8 Netherlands 503 3.1 -2
9 Italy 462 2.9 1 9 Canada  a 417 2.6 -5
10 United Kingdom 409 2.6 -11 10 Korea, Republic of 406 2.5 -7
11 Belgium 396 2.5 0 11 Italy 404 2.5 -2
12 Canada 390 2.4 -5 12 Mexico 398 2.5 -2
13 Mexico 374 2.3 -2 13 Belgium 367 2.3 -2
14 Singapore 330 2.1 -5 14 India 359 2.2 -9
- domestic exports 154 1.0 -5
- re-exports 176 1.1 -5
15 Switzerland  b 303 1.9 5 15 Spain 309 1.9 -1
16 Spain 287 1.8 2 16 Singapore 283 1.7 -5
- retained imports  c 107 0.7 -4
17 Russian Federation 282 1.8 -17 17 Switzerland  b 269 1.7 6
18 Chinese Taipei 280 1.8 -2 18 Chinese Taipei 231 1.4 -3
19 United Arab Emirates  d 266 1.7 -2 19 United Arab Emirates  d 225 1.4 -2
20 India 264 1.7 -1 20 Turkey 199 1.2 -4
21 Thailand 215 1.3 0 21 Poland 197 1.2 0
22 Poland 203 1.3 2 22 Australia  d 196 1.2 -6
23 Australia 190 1.2 1 23 Thailand 195 1.2 -4
24 Malaysia 189 1.2 -5 24 Russian Federation  a 191 1.2 -1
25 Brazil 185 1.2 -3 25 Viet Nam 174 1.1 5
26 Viet Nam 177 1.1 9 26 Malaysia 168 1.0 -4
27 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  d 175 1.1 -14 27 Austria 157 1.0 1
28 Czech Republic 163 1.0 3 28 Brazil 143 0.9 -20
29 Austria 152 1.0 0 29 Czech Republic 142 0.9 1
30 Indonesia 144 0.9 -4 30 Sweden 140 0.9 1
Total of above  e 13458 84.3 -               Total of above  e 13332 82.2 -               
World  e 15955 100.0 -3 World  e 16225 100.0 -3
a  Imports are valued f.o.b.
b  Includes gold. 
c  Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d  Secretariat estimates.
e  Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
 
 PRESS/ 791 
 
- 17 - 
 
  Appendix Table 4: Leading merchandise exporters and importers excluding 
intra -EU (28)  trade , 2016  
$bn and %  
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 China 2098 16.8 -8 1 United States of America 2251 17.6 -3
2 Extra-EU(28) exports 1932 15.4 -3 2 Extra-EU(28) imports 1889 14.8 -2
3 United States of America 1455 11.6 -3 3 China 1587 12.4 -5
4 Japan 645 5.2 3 4 Japan 607 4.7 -6
5 Hong Kong, China 517 4.1 1 5 Hong Kong, China 547 4.3 -2
- domestic exports 26 0.2 95 - retained imports 121 0.9 -10
- re-exports 491 3.9 -1
6 Korea, Republic of 495 4.0 -6 6 Canada  a 417 3.3 -5
7 Canada 390 3.1 -5 7 Korea, Republic of 406 3.2 -7
8 Mexico 374 3.0 -2 8 Mexico 398 3.1 -2
9 Singapore 330 2.6 -5 9 India 359 2.8 -9
- domestic exports 154 1.2 -5
- re-exports 176 1.4 -5
10 Switzerland  c 303 2.4 5 10 Singapore 283 2.2 -5
- retained imports  b 107 0.8 -4
11 Russian Federation 282 2.3 -17 11 Switzerland  c 269 2.1 6
12 Chinese Taipei 280 2.2 -2 12 Chinese Taipei 231 1.8 -3
13 United Arab Emirates  d 266 2.1 -2 13 United Arab Emirates  d 225 1.8 -2
14 India 264 2.1 -1 14 Turkey 199 1.6 -4
15 Thailand 215 1.7 0 15 Australia  d 196 1.5 -6
16 Australia 190 1.5 1 16 Thailand 195 1.5 -4
17 Malaysia 189 1.5 -5 17 Russian Federation  a 191 1.5 -1
18 Brazil 185 1.5 -3 18 Viet Nam 174 1.4 5
19 Viet Nam 177 1.4 9 19 Malaysia 168 1.3 -4
20 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  d 175 1.4 -14 20 Brazil 143 1.1 -20
21 Indonesia 144 1.2 -4 21 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  d 139 1.1 -20
22 Turkey 143 1.1 -1 22 Indonesia 136 1.1 -5
23 Norway 89 0.7 -14 23 South Africa  d 92 0.7 -13
24 South Africa 75 0.6 -8 24 Philippines  d 86 0.7 23
25 Iran  d 66 0.5 5 25 Norway 72 0.6 -5
26 Israel  d 60 0.5 -6 26 Israel  d 69 0.5 6
27 Chile 60 0.5 -4 27 Chile 59 0.5 -6
28 Argentina 58 0.5 2 28 Egypt 56 0.4 -12
29 Qatar 58 0.5 -25 29 Argentina 56 0.4 -7
30 Philippines 56 0.4 -4 30 Iraq  d 48 0.4 -8
Total of above  e 11572 92.5 - Total of above  e 11548 90.3 -
World (excl. Intra-EU(28))  e 12514 100.0 -4 World (excl. Intra-EU(28))  e 12784 100.0 -4
a  Imports are valued f.o.b.
b  Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
c  Includes gold. 
d  Secretariat estimates.
e  Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
 PRESS/ 791 
 
- 18 - 
 
  Appendix Table 5: Leading exporters and importers of commer cial services, 
2016  
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 United States of America 733 15.4 0.3 1 United States of America 482 10.4 3.2
2 United Kingdom 329 6.9 -5.2 2 China  a 449 9.7 3.7
3 Germany 267 5.6 2.8 3 Germany 304 6.5 2.2
4 France 235 4.9 -2.5 4 France 235 5.1 1.5
5 China  a 207 4.3 -4.3 5 Ireland 192 4.1 14.6
6 Netherlands 174 3.7 -1.0 6 United Kingdom 191 4.1 -8.9
7 Japan 169 3.5 6.5 7 Japan 181 3.9 3.6
8 India 161 3.4 3.5 8 Netherlands 165 3.6 -1.7
9 Singapore 149 3.1 0.6 9 Singapore 155 3.3 0.5
10 Ireland 146 3.1 8.8 10 India  b 133 2.9 8.4
11 Spain 127 2.7 7.6 11 Korea, Republic of 109 2.3 -2.0
12 Switzerland 112 2.4 1.2 12 Belgium 105 2.3 -0.5
13 Belgium 107 2.2 -3.7 13 Italy 100 2.2 1.5
14 Italy 100 2.1 2.5 14 Canada 97 2.1 -1.7
15 Hong Kong, China 98 2.1 -5.7 15 Switzerland 95 2.0 1.0
16 Luxembourg 94 2.0 -1.1 16 Hong Kong, China 74 1.6 0.5
17 Korea, Republic of 92 1.9 -5.0 17 Russian Federation 73 1.6 -16.4
18 Canada 80 1.7 1.3 18 Luxembourg 72 1.5 -1.7
19 Sweden 71 1.5 -1.2 19 Spain 71 1.5 9.4
20 Thailand 66 1.4 7.7 20 Brazil 61 1.3 -10.8
21 Austria 59 1.2 2.7 21 Sweden 61 1.3 -0.7
22 Denmark 58 1.2 -8.2 22 Australia 56 1.2 -1.5
23 Australia 52 1.1 8.6 23 Denmark 55 1.2 -2.1
24 Russian Federation 49 1.0 -3.3 24 Chinese Taipei 52 1.1 2.2
25 Poland 49 1.0 7.8 25 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 52 1.1 -7.5
26 Chinese Taipei 41 0.9 0.7 26 Austria 48 1.0 2.9
27 Israel 39 0.8 10.2 27 Norway 47 1.0 -1.2
28 Turkey 37 0.8 -19.6 28 Thailand 42 0.9 -0.8
29 Norway 36 0.8 -10.8 29 Malaysia 39 0.8 -1.7
30 Malaysia 34 0.7 -2.2 30 Poland 34 0.7 2.6
Total of above 3972 83.3 - Total of above 3829 82.5 -
World 4770 100.0 0.1 World 4645 100.0 0.5
b  Imports adjusted to f.o.b. valuation.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been 
estimated by the Secretariat. 
More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.a  China recently revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were 
revised downward starting in 2014 on both the credit and the debit side.PRESS/ 791 
 
- 19 - 
 
  Appendix Table 6: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services  
excluding intra -EU (28) trade , 2016  
$bn and %  
Rank Exporters Value ShareAnnual 
% 
changeRank Importers Value ShareAnnual 
% 
change
1 Extra-EU(28) exports 879 24.2 -1.3 1 Extra-EU(28) imports 725 20.1 -2.5
2 United States of America 733 20.1 0.3 2 United States of America 482 13.4 3.2
3 China  a 207 5.7 -4.3 3 China  a 449 12.5 3.7
4 Japan 169 4.6 6.5 4 Japan 181 5.0 3.6
5 India 161 4.4 3.5 5 Singapore 155 4.3 0.5
6 Singapore 149 4.1 0.6 6 India  b 133 3.7 8.4
7 Switzerland 112 3.1 1.2 7 Korea, Republic of 109 3.0 -2.0
8 Hong Kong, China 98 2.7 -5.7 8 Canada 97 2.7 -1.7
9 Korea, Republic of 92 2.5 -5.0 9 Switzerland 95 2.6 1.0
10 Canada 80 2.2 1.3 10 Hong Kong, China 74 2.1 0.5
11 Thailand 66 1.8 7.7 11 Russian Federation 73 2.0 -16.4
12 Australia 52 1.4 8.6 12 United Arab Emirates  c 66 1.8 …
13 Russian Federation 49 1.4 -3.3 13 Brazil 61 1.7 -10.8
14 Chinese Taipei 41 1.1 0.7 14 Australia 56 1.6 -1.5
15 Israel 39 1.1 10.2 15 Chinese Taipei 52 1.4 2.2
16 Turkey 37 1.0 -19.6 16 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 52 1.4 -7.5
17 Norway 36 1.0 -10.8 17 Norway 47 1.3 -1.2
18 Malaysia 34 0.9 -2.2 18 Thailand 42 1.2 -0.8
19 Brazil 33 0.9 -1.3 19 Malaysia 39 1.1 -1.7
20 Macao, China  d 32 0.9 -2.8 20 Indonesia 31 0.8 -0.5
21 Philippines 31 0.9 7.9 21 Mexico 29 0.8 0.0
22 United Arab Emirates  c 26 0.7 … 22 Qatar 29 0.8 2.8
23 Mexico 24 0.7 5.3 23 Kuwait, the State of 25 0.7 17.6
24 Indonesia 23 0.6 8.7 24 Israel 24 0.7 6.0
25 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of 15 0.4 10.2 25 Philippines 24 0.7 2.2
26 New Zealand 15 0.4 3.8 26 Turkey 20 0.6 -1.7
27 Qatar 15 0.4 4.2 27 Argentina 19 0.5 10.7
28 Morocco 15 0.4 3.5 28 Angola  c 19 0.5 …
29 Lebanese Republic  e 14 0.4 … 29 Viet Nam 17 0.5 10.4
30 South Africa 14 0.4 -4.9 30 Egypt 16 0.4 -3.3
Total of above 3293 90.5 - Total of above 3242 90.0 -
World (excl. intra-EU(28)) 3640 100.0 -0.3 World (excl. intra-EU(28)) 3600 100.0 -0.4
c  Secretariat estimates. Quarterly data not available.
d  Follows BPM5 services classification.
e  Secretariat estimates.
… indicates unavailable or non-comparable figures.
- indicates non-applicable.
Source:  WTO, UNCTAD and ITC.Note:  Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Figures for a number of countries and territories have been 
estimated by the Secretariat. 
More data available at https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm.a  China recently revised its methodology to compile travel transactions.  As a result, its trade in services statistics were 
revised downward starting in 2014 on both the credit and the debit side.
b  Imports adjusted to f.o.b. valuation.PRESS/ 791 
 
- 20 - 
 
  Appendix Chart 1: Contributions  to GDP growth of selected economies, 2005 -16 
% and percentage points  
Source: OECD for the United States and the euro area, National Burea of Statistics and Economist Intelligence Unit for China.Euro areaUnited States
China-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private consumption Government expenditure Gross investment
External balance GDP-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private consumption Government expenditure Gross fixed investment
Changes in inventories External balance GDP
-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private consumption Government expenditure Gross fixed investment
Changes in inventories External balance GDPPRESS/ 791 
 
- 21 - 
 
  Appendix C hart 2: Merchandise  exports and imports of selected economies, 
January 2015 – February 2017  
Year-on-year % change in current dollar values  
 
a  January and February averaged to minimize distortions due to lunar new  year.
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.IndiaEuropean Union (28)
Brazil
Russian Fed.United States
Japan
China  aRep. Korea
-30-25-20-15-10-505101520
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports-15-10-5051015
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
-20-15-10-5051015
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
-30-20-100102030
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports-30-20-100102030
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
-40-30-20-10010203040
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
-50-40-30-20-1001020304050
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
-40-30-20-100102030
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Exports
Imports
 
 
 
END