PRESS/800  
 
21 September 2017  
(17-4981) Page: 1/7 
    
 
PRESS RELEASE  
TRADE STATISTICS AND  OUTLOOK 
WTO upgrades forecast for 2017 as trade rebounds  strongly  
WTO economists have issued a strong upward revision to their forecast for 2017 trade expansion  
following a sharp acceleration in global trade growth in the first half of th e year.  
 
The estimate for growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2017 was raised to 3.6% . The 
previous estimate for 2017 was 2.4% , though this was set within a range of 1.8% -3.6%, reflecting 
the high level of economic and policy uncertainty .  The new estimate puts the focus on the top end 
of that range. Growth of 3.6% would  represent a 
substantial improvement on the lacklustre 1.3% 
increase in 2016. Reflecting the continued forecast 
risk arising from deep uncertainty about near -term 
economic and policy developments, the range of 
estimates for world trade growth has been adjusted  
to 3.2% - 3.9%. Stronger growth in 2017 was 
attributed to a resurgence of Asi an trade flows as 
intra-regional shipments picked up and as import 
demand in North America rec overed after stalling 
in 2016.  
 
“The improved  outlook for  trade is welcome news, 
but substantial risks that threaten  the world 
economy  remain in place and could easily 
undermine any trade recovery,” Director -General 
Roberto Azevêdo  said. “These  risks includ e the 
possibility that protectionist rhetoric translates into 
trade restrictive actions , a worrying rise in  global 
geopolitical tensions  and a rising econ omic toll from 
natural disasters. ”  
 
“Though difficult to quantify, these risks are very 
real. As a result,  increased optimism about trade 
should be tempered with a healthy dose  of caution.  
On the other hand, the fact that trade growth is 
now more synchronized across regions  than it has 
been for many  years  could make the current  
expansion  self-reinforcing. Such a positive  outcome 
would  be more likely if countries continue to resist 
MAIN POINTS  
World merchandise trade volume is 
forecast to grow 3.6% in 2017,  placed 
within a range from 3.2% to 3.9%, 
accompanied by  global GDP growth of 
2.8% at market exchange rates.  
Strong er-than -expected  growth  is driven 
by Asia and North America,  where 
import demand is recovering from weak 
results in 2016.  
Trade growth should moderate to 3.2%  
in 2018, within a range from 1.4% to 
4.4%, as global GDP growth remains 
stable at  2.8%. 
The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth  
should rise to 1.3 in 2017.  
Export orders have strengthened 
signalling sustained trade momentum in 
second half of 2017.  
Recovery could be undermined by 
downside risk s, including trade policy 
measures, monetary tightening, 
geopolitical tensions and costly natural 
disasters.  PRESS/800  
 
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  the temptation s of protectionism  and work together with their p artners in the multilateral system 
to ensure that  gains from trade are  both large and  widely shared .” 
 
The new estimate for world trade growth in 2017 is at the high e nd of the range of estimates  
provided  in WTO economists' most recent  trade forecast  of 12 April 2017 (1.8% - 3.6%). The 
strength of the revision is partly  due to a modest  improvement  in the consensus forecast  for world 
GDP growth (2.8% in 2017 at market exchange rates , up from 2.3% in 2016 ) and partly due to 
the composition of that growth .   
 
GDP growth accelerated in most major economies in the second quarter, most notably in China 
where quarter -on-quarter growth rose from 1.3% in Q1 (equivalent to an annual rate of around 
5.3%) to 1.7% in Q2 (around 7.0% annualized).  Growth also strengthened  in the United States 
from 1.2%  annualized in Q1 to 3.0% in Q3  and the euro area (from 2.2% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q2).   
 
Stronger growth  particularly  in China and the United States boosted demand for imports, which 
spurred intra -Asia-trade as demand was transm itted through regional supply chains .  Chinese 
demand in the first half of 2017 was driven by solid growth in industry (up 6.4% in real terms for 
the year to date) and even stronger growth in services (up 7.7% over the same period). Financial 
conditions in  Asia also improved compared to the volatile first quarter of 2016, contributing to 
business and consumer confidence.  
 
The partial recovery of oil prices in 2017 also appears to have provided some support for  
investment  in the United States , growth of which slowed abruptly in 2016 – particularly in the 
energy sector – but has picked up in the first half of  this year.  The import content of investment 
tends to be higher than other components of GDP, so a recovery of expenditure in this area would 
be expected  to have an outsized impact on import demand.   
 
The rapid pace of trade growth in 2017  is unlikely to be sustained next year for a number of 
reasons.  First, trade growth in 2018  will not be measured against  a weak base year, as is the case 
this year .  Second, monetary policy  is expected to  tighten  in developed countries  as the  Federal 
Reserve  gradually rais es interest rates in the United States and the European Central Bank looks 
to phase out quantitative easing  in the euro area . Third, fiscal expansion  and easy credit  in China 
are likely to be reined in to prevent the economy from overheating.  All of these factors should 
contribute to a moderation of trade growth in 2018 to around 3.2% (the full range of the estimate 
being from 1. 4% to 4.4%). 
 
Chart 1 : Merchandise exports and imports by level of development, 2012 Q1-2017Q1  
(Volume index, 2012Q1=100)  
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
9095100105110115120
12Q1
12Q3
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World Developed Developing9095100105110115120
12Q1
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World Developed DevelopingPRESS/800  
 
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  Charts 1 and 2  show seasonally adjusted merchandise  export  and import volumes by level of 
development and by geographic region.  World trade rose 4.2% year-on-year in the first half 
of 2017 compared to the same period in the previous year .  Developed economies ' exports  were 
up 3.1% over the same period while those o f developing economies were up 5. 9%.  Meanwhile, 
imports were up 2. 1% in developed countries and 6.9% in d eveloping economies  in the first half of 
the year .1  
 
Exports and imports were up in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period last year in all 
regions tracked by WTO short-term trade statistics except for South America , where trade was 
essentially  flat.  North American exports and imports were up 4.9% and 3.9% year-on-year during  
this period.  Exports of South America were down 0.7% while imports were up 1.0%.  In Europe, 
exports grew 2.6% while imports ros e 1.2%. Exports of Asia rose 7. 3% while the region's import s 
jumped 8.9% thanks in large part to strong increases in China.   
 
"Other regions ", compris ed of Africa, t he Middle East and the CIS  region , saw flat export growth of 
0.1% in volume terms mostly d ue to the fact that demand for oil and other natural resources 
tends to be very stable .  On the other hand, imports of these regions were collectively up 2. 5% 
thanks to a partial recovery in prices for primary commodities. Oil prices were up 21.8% year -on-
year in the first half of 2017, boosting export revenues of resource producing regions.  However, 
prices remain low by recent historical standards, with Brent Crude at $53.25 per barrel on 11 
September, well below the $100 per barrel that prevailed before  July 2014.  
 
Chart 2 : Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2012 Q1-2017Q1  
(Volume index, 2012Q1=100)  
 
 
 
Source: WTO Secretariat.  
 
These data are in line with the WTO's World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), which switched from 
signalling below -trend growth  in July 2016 to above -trend growth  in November 2016 and has 
continued to strengthen  since then.  The WTOI  combines several leading indicators for trade into a 
                                                
1 Short -term trade statistics can be downloaded from the WTO website at www.wto.org/statistics . For 
the purposes of this press release, the developing economies group contains the Commonwealth of 
Independent States (CIS), including associate and former member states. 
9095100105110115120125130
12Q1
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North America SouthAmerica Europe
Asia Other9095100105110115120125130
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North America SouthAmerica Europe
Asia OtherPRESS/800  
 
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  single composite indicator.  Components include container port throughput, air freight shi pments, 
export orders, automobile sales and trade in electronic components and raw materials.  
 
Table 1 summarizes the WTO’s revised trade forecast s for 2017 and 2018 .  If these estimates are 
realized, 2017 will see developing economies outpace developed ec onomies in trade volume 
growth on both the export and import sides. It will also be the first year since 2013 in which  
imports of developing economies will have grown faster than those of developed countries.   
 
Whether this rebound marks an end to the so -called emerging market slowdown remains to be 
seen.  A robust Chinese economic recovery has boosted import demand and stimulated trade 
between China and its Asian  trading partners in 2017, but the pace of Chinese  growth is expected 
to moderate  progressivel y in 2018 and beyond.  Meanwhile, other developing regions continue to 
stagnate.  On a bright note, Brazil should see growth in its imports and  GDP turn positive in 2017 
but South America as a whole will continue to register weak trade and GDP growth .  
 
Trade growth for 2017 has been revised upward for North America on both the export  side (from 
3.2% to 4.2%)  and import side (from 3.0% to 4.1%)  while estimates have been scaled back  for 
European export s (from 2.8% to 2.5%) and imports (from 2.9% to 2.4%) .  The biggest upgrades 
were for Asia, which should see its exports and imports advance to 7.0% and 6.7%, respectively, 
in 2017.   Previous estimates (2.5% for exports and 3.2% for imports) suggested a further 
weakening of the relationship between world trade and GDP but this seems to have been 
premature.   The ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth, referred to by economists as the 
"elasticity" of trade, should rebound to 1. 3:1 in 2017  (see Chart 3) . 
 PRESS/800  
 
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  Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 201 3-2018  a  
Annual % change  
 
 
 
a  Figures for 2017 and 2018 are projections.  
b  Average of exports and imports.  
c  Includes the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including associate and former member states.  
d  Other regions comprise Africa, Middle East and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).  
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, con sensus estimates for GDP.  
 
A range of values  have been provided around central estimates for 2017 and 2018 to reflect the 
uncertainty inherent in trade forecasts . World trade growth for 2017 could be as high as 3.9% or 
as low as 3.2% once complete data for the year are available .  (Note: Ranges are based on the 
central estimate plus or minus the mean absolute deviation between historical forecasts and actual 
value s, plus an adjustment to account for over/underestimation in previous years. ) 
 
2013 2014 2015 2016
Volume of world merchandise tradeb2.4 2.7 2.6 1.3 3.6 (3.2 - 3.9) 3.2 (1.4 - 4.4)
Exports
Developed economies 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.4 3.0 (2.8 - 3.2) 2.8 (1.6 - 3.5)
Developing economiesc4.0 3.0 1.9 1.3 4.7 (4.2 - 5.2) 4.1 (2.1 - 5.7)
North America 2.7 4.2 0.7 0.5 4.2 (2.5 - 5.3) 3.8 (0.8 - 6.0)
South and Central America 1.7 -2.2 2.5 2.0 0.5 (-1.9 - 2.4) 1.3 (-1.5 - 3.0)
Europe 1.7 2.0 3.6 1.4 2.5 (1.6 - 3.3) 2.5 (1.3 - 3.3)
Asia 5.4 4.3 1.1 1.8 6.4 (5.9 - 7.2) 4.8 (1.9 - 7.5)
Other regionsd0.5 0.9 4.3 0.3 0.5 (-1.4 - 2.7) 2.1 (1.2 - 2.8)
Imports
Developed economies 0.0 3.6 4.7 2.0 3.0 (2.5 - 3.8) 2.9 (2.6 - 3.3)
Developing economiesc4.7 1.7 0.5 0.2 5.1 (3.6 - 6.0) 3.7 (-0.9 - 7.0)
North America 1.3 4.8 6.7 0.4 4.1 (3.2 - 4.8) 3.5 (0.7 - 6.1)
South and Central America 4.5 -2.4 -5.8 -8.7 1.1 (-6.8 - 5.9) 2.4 (-8.9 - 9.2)
Europe -0.2 3.2 4.3 3.1 2.4 (1.7 - 3.3) 2.8 (2.2 - 3.4)
Asia 4.8 3.0 2.9 2.0 5.8 (5.0 - 6.3) 4.0 (1.3 - 6.2)
Other regionsd1.8 -0.9 -5.1 -2.4 4.0 (1.5 - 5.6) 2.4 (-3.1 - 6.6)
Real GDP at market exchange rates 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.8
Developed economies 1.2 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.8
Developing economiesc4.7 4.3 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.4
North America 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.1 2.1
South and Central America 3.4 0.9 -0.9 -1.9 0.9 1.8
Europe 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9
Asia 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.3
Other regionsd2.6 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.92017P 2018PPRESS/800  
 
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  Chart 3: Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 
1981 -2017  
% change and ratio  
 
 
Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, con sensus estimates for GDP. 
 
Risks to the forecast are firmly tilted to the downside.  Anticipated shifts in the stance of monetary 
policy in developed countries could provoke large changes in prices and exchange rates that would 
strongly influence international trade patterns. Renegotiation of the North American Free Trade 
Agreement (NAFTA)  and negotiation of post -Brexit trade arrangements between the United 
Kingdom and the European Union could also unsettle global and regional trade. Rising geopolitical 
tensions , most notably i n Asia, could have extremely negative consequences for the world  
economy that would be difficult to gauge in advance . Finally, natural disasters including hurricanes  
in the United States could have a significant but temporary  impact on trade  in the short -run. 
 
Over the longer term, t he rebalancing of China's economy away from manufacturing and toward 
services may weigh on global import demand for some time . Services, which give rise to lower 
demand for imports than manufacturing, have seen their share in Ch inese value added rise from 
43% in 2008 to 54% today.  Although this rebalancing may cause Chinese imports to moderate, 
these changes should  promote stronger and more sustainable growth in the long run.  
 
Figures above refer to merchandise trade in volume t erms, but trade  in current US dollar terms is 
also up in 2017.  Chart 4 shows merchandise exports and imports of  selected economies , which 
are up  to varying degrees .  Trade in commercial services is also up in most major economies other 
than the United Kin gdom, which saw the dollar value of exports and imports fall 5.2% and 6.8%, 
respectively.  However, nominal trade statistics should be interpreted with caution as they are 
often strongly influenced by prices and exchange rates.  
 
 PRESS/800  
 
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END 
Chart 4
Merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, July 2014-March 2017
(Year-on-year percentage change in current dollar values)
a  January and February averaged to minimize distortions due to lunar new  year.
Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Global Trade Information Services GTA database, national statistics.India Russian FederationUnited States European Union (extra-trade)
Japan Republic of Korea
Brazil China  a-40-30-20-10010203040
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